# Harry Dent's View



## glenn_r (18 October 2008)

Harry Dent is one of the world's pre-eminent experts on world financial markets and he was one of the first people to forecast the largely unanticipated boom of the 1990's.

Now he's back warning everyone to batten down the hatches and be ready for a bumpy ride.

"We see this almost like a hurricane, so the first part of the hurricane hits you then you get the eye of the storm, the calm of the storm in the middle which is 2009," Harry said. 

http://aca.ninemsn.com.au/article.aspx?id=648905


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## Ageo (18 October 2008)

Hmm interesting, he shares the same view i have had now for a while as mentioned in another post



> Back to my question thow, do you guys believe with all the cash injection (which still has to happen) that the market will prop up a little before it tanks?


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## moXJO (8 April 2009)

Shot an email over to Harry Dent about the AUS economy. And he was kind enough to send back one of his reports that contained some info. I have found that his longer term views can be spot on for boom and busts. But he is often out a lot when picking exact targets (Dow to 40000) in books. But he does have updates monthly and any changes in his forecasts. As a general guide to what may unfold I believe his material is useful. Since I am lazy I will just cut and paste the bit on his method.



> The Dent Method is a long term economic forecasting technique based on the study of and changes in demographic trends and their impact on our economy. As the only documented record of success at forecasting long term economic trends, The Dent Method works by showing how predictable consumer spending patterns combined with demographic trends allow us to forecast the economy years or even decades in advance.




 And a small snippet of his view on AUS  


> The center of the banking crisis is not just subprime loans, but also more aggressive prime loans made against housing that doubled or tripled in just 5 years between 2000 and 2005. The U.S. and England had higher percentages of subprime and poorly regulated loans and toxic mortgage securities. Australia and New Zealand are likely to see the most pervasive real estate drops even as they may continue to attract migration of retiring Westerners and migrating Easterners. Canada clearly should weather this banking meltdown and housing bubble the best, with most of the damage contained in Western Canada.
> To summarize: Australia is best positioned with its stronger Echo Boom and likely continued immigration and export buoyancy to countries like China. However, it is perhaps the most vulnerable to the housing bubble and deflationary spiral ahead. The U.S. has the most lax regulations and hence the worst banking system, with major exposure to the housing bubble but the least exposure to falling exports. New Zealand is likely to weather the economic and housing crises the worst. Canada should weather the housing and banking crises the best, while Australia’s economy overall should be the most resilient and the best set to boom longer term along with the U.S. Canada, Australia, and New Zealand will be good countries in which to park savings in currencies that are likely to counter the decline of the U.S. dollar over the next year or so.




Edit: for the property bulls


> Australia and New Zealand have a better shot at higher prices down the road due to their locations in the booming Asian region, as may Western Canada.


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## gfresh (8 April 2009)

hehe.. he's on ACA now? classy.. 

I read his book, there were some valid points and things to think about. Although his timing on all the predictions stuff seemed to be about 1-2 years off. He also picked a retest of I think of 14k on the DOW in 2008/09, before the major depression falloff but that hasn't happened, and if anything the US has already seemingly started to enter this Depression period (if it is to occur)... it could be 5 years before the DOW sees 14k again.

I also wasn't too convinced on some of his regional predictions. He believes China is ready for a big bust due to aging population in a few years but I don't think they have even really reached full potential. His predictions of China crashing would also be contradictory to Australia doing well.. we now *need* China to do well.

At the moment, Canada is suffering heavily as well with unemployment up near 8%...


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## moXJO (8 April 2009)

gfresh said:


> hehe.. he's on ACA now? classy..
> 
> I read his book, there were some valid points and things to think about. Although his timing on all the predictions stuffed seemed to be about 1-2 years off. He also picked a retest I think of 14k on the DOW in 2008/09, before the major falloff but that hasn't happened, and I am not sure that it will happen.. it could be 5 years before the DOW seems 14k again.
> 
> I also wasn't too convinced on some of his regional predictions. He believes China is ready for a big bust due to aging population in a few years but I don't think they have even really reached full potential.




He must have changed that, don't want to post his chart. But it looks as if roughly 9000 Dow in may-aug followed by the big drop. So time will tell. I think the China bust was 2030? Due to the spending cycle of the aging consumers. Apparently our next major boom according to him is 2020(lot of rallys in between) I think? I have noticed he has been caught out a few times on short term projections. I think the Boomers are one of the downsides for the US.


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## Solly (21 June 2009)

"Worse to come for Australian economy, says Harry Dent"

"AUSTRALIA'S sharemarket will halve in value, house prices will slump as much as 40 per cent and unemployment will climb to 10 per cent.

That's the bold prediction from economic forecaster Harry Dent, who says a bigger crash is ahead for the global economy within the next two years."

"He says our house prices are "among the most overvalued in the world" and will backtrack by as much as 40 per cent while unemployment – now at 5.7 per cent – will hit double digits."

Courier Mail article here;

http://www.news.com.au/couriermail/story/0,23739,25660536-3122,00.html

I sure hope that these predictions are off the mark...


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## Beej (21 June 2009)

Solly said:


> I sure hope that these predictions are off the mark...




Don't worry - based on his past form they probably will be WAY off the mark!  Maybe he would like to climb Mt Kosciusko with Steven Keen! 

From Wikipedia:



> *In fact, www.maxfunds.com, a financial reporting site awarded him the The "Ultimate Charlatan"[3] Award*. They write: "The worst investing advice usually arrives near the top and bottom of stock market cycles. Demographic trends guru Harry S. Dent is making the rounds again, and touting his latest book, The Great Depression Ahead: How to Prosper in the Crash Following the Greatest Boom in History ... In his 2006 work, Dent predicted, “The Dow hitting 40,000 by the end of the decade, the NASDAQ advancing at least ten times from its October 2001 lows to around 13,500, and potentially as high as 20,000 by 2009…The Great Boom resurging into its final and strongest stage in 2007, and even more fully in 2008, lasting until late 2009 to early 2010.”




Cheers,

Beej


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## moXJO (21 June 2009)

Solly said:


> "Worse to come for Australian economy, says Harry Dent"
> 
> "AUSTRALIA'S sharemarket will halve in value, house prices will slump as much as 40 per cent and unemployment will climb to 10 per cent.
> 
> ...




Already at 9.6% unemployment where I am in NSW. I hope the rest of the state doesn’t follow.


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## MrBurns (22 June 2009)

*Bigger crash to come*

From the ABC web site - note the house prices down 50% prediction, bad luck FHB's tragic really.



> Economist puts dent in optimism: bigger crash is coming -
> 
> An international economic forecaster says another big crash lies ahead for global share and property markets within the next two years.
> 
> ...


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## freebird54 (18 June 2016)

glenn_r said:


> Harry Dent is one of the world's pre-eminent experts on world financial markets and he was one of the first people to forecast the largely unanticipated boom of the 1990's.
> 
> Now he's back warning everyone to batten down the hatches and be ready for a bumpy ride.
> 
> ...




He is here yet again - anyone been to his latest talks?


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## greggles (27 February 2018)

This bloke is at it again. Harry S. Dent is currently touring Australia promoting a new book called Zero Hour which predicts, amongst other things, economic armageddon and the decimation of Australia's property market which he expects will crash by up to 50%.

Harry is better at self promotion than he is at predicting the future. He seems to be in Australia quite often flogging something.


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## explod (27 February 2018)

I agree with him, particularly in property, the loss of work hours in jobs, businesses closing and so many new owners over the last five years in distress and about to default.  Banks being forced to cover the uncertainty by raising rates.


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## moXJO (27 February 2018)

He's been wrong too many times. If you call it often enough you eventually get it right


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## Tisme (27 February 2018)

moXJO said:


> He's been wrong too many times. If you call it often enough you eventually get it right




One of those prime movers of Cunningham's Law


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## explod (27 February 2018)

moXJO said:


> He's been wrong too many times. If you call it often enough you eventually get it right



I reckon he will be close this time


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## greggles (27 February 2018)

moXJO said:


> He's been wrong too many times. If you call it often enough you eventually get it right



This is the problem I have with him. I also believe that some kind of GFC-like global economic correction/downturn will likely occur before 2020, but this guy has made an entire career out of predicting global economic apocalypse. For that reason it's hard to take him seriously. He may have gotten a few things right, but how much has he gotten wrong? Much more.

He released "How to Survive (& Thrive) in the Great Gold Bust Ahead" on 1 December 2015 when the gold price was at its low of around US$1,060. Instead of plunging further, gold rallied $300 in seven months. D'oh!


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