# Oil crisis?



## mime (12 January 2005)

Anyone else think there will be a oil crisis in the near future? i think there will be so I've invested in oil stocks. It's strange how not long ago I was hoping for the price of oil to go down and now it's the oppisite.


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## Smurf1976 (19 March 2005)

mime said:
			
		

> Anyone else think there will be a oil crisis in the near future? i think there will be so I've invested in oil stocks. It's strange how not long ago I was hoping for the price of oil to go down and now it's the oppisite.



In short, probably.

I have my own model which covers significant oil producing countries (over 60 of them) and includes tar sands, natural bitumen, deep water, gas liquids, polar oil, heavy oil etc in addition to the conventional light crude oil on which most focus.

There are unavoidably a number of assumptions which need to be made regarding both production and consumption. 

With consumption, the main risk is the economy. For the purposes of the following timeframe I have assumed business as usual (though I do not necessarily expect that outcome).

For production, the risks are far greater and relate largely to the policies of the key producing countries with a low depletion rate and / or large unconventional resources. There are also significant geopolitical risks affecting many of these countries.

Assuming no major natural disasters or UNEXPECTED geopolitical events, a physical shortfall is likely to emerge sometime between 2006 and 2013 assuming BAU economic growth (China!). Risk in 2006 is solely due to geopolitical factors. Delaying beyond 2008 requires a substantial policy shift towards what is known as the American model of oil production. 

So, overall if the economy holds up then I expect an oil crisis with the most likely date being near the end of this decade unless there is either a geopolitical event involving oil producers or it could be delayed by very large scale investment if such geopolitical event(s) were to produce a policy shift outcome.

It is a fact that any loss of production from Iran would need to be made up almost exclusively by either demand reduction or stock drawdown. The US Strategic Petroleum Reserve (SPR) could sustain such drawdown for approximately 6 months after which it would be completely empty. Total worldwide stocks, both commercial and government, could sustain such a situation for around 16 months before physical product shortages are likely.

There is now insufficient surplus production capacity to accommodate the loss of any significant producer. Strife in Venezuela, Iraq, Iran etc could INDIVIDUALLY send the market over the edge. The market could not accommodate an Iraq war or Venezuela strike in 2005 as it did in 2003.

Physical discovery of new conventional crude oil deposits peaked in the early 1960's. Natural gas discovery worldwide peaked in the 1970's.

I hold oil stocks.


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## greggles (21 October 2021)

An interesting take on the upcoming Oil Crisis of 2022.









						The IEA’s Role in the Coming Oil Crisis
					

Discussing whether the IEA pushing for renewable energy projects is setting the stage for an energy crisis.




					blog.gorozen.com
				






> As early as Q4 of 2022, demand will approach world oil-pumping capability — a first in 160 years of oil history. The ramifications will be huge and the investment implications monumental.


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## Sean K (21 October 2021)

greggles said:


> An interesting take on the upcoming Oil Crisis of 2022.
> 
> 
> 
> ...




Does this all mean the POO will skyrocket and therefore producers will make a killing?


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## greggles (21 October 2021)

kennas said:


> Does this all mean the POO will skyrocket and therefore producers will make a killing?




The thesis appears to be that non-OPEC oil production will experience a slowdown in 2022 as a result of IEA (International Energy Agency) policies. This will increase OPEC market share and pricing power and will result in rising oil prices that will eventualy cause an oil crisis.


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## qldfrog (21 October 2021)

kennas said:


> Does this all mean the POO will skyrocket and therefore producers will make a killing?



or will be used to justify the green economy:
step 1: remove investment, forbid exploration and create a crisis
step 2 POO jumps, and oil rationing or over the roof price unaffordable and make EV nearly the only option
step 3: the masses are out of the roads, can't afford EV which can not be produced for all anyway stuck in cattle class for train and public transport: Reset achieves and the 0.1% can cruise along in their Tesla on empty roads breathing clean air
So yes producers will make a killing bt not in the west as they will be punished by carbon taxes and all legal and illegal way;
if you invest in russian, chinese or indian Oil producer, you are indeed on a winner


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## Sean K (21 October 2021)

qldfrog said:


> or will be used to justify the green economy:
> step 1: remove investment, forbid exploration and create a crisis
> step 2 POO jumps, and oil rationing or over the roof price unaffordable and make EV nearly the only option
> step 3: the masses are out of the roads, can't afford EV which can not be produced for all anyway stuck in cattle class for train and public transport: Reset achieves and the 0.1% can cruise along in their Tesla on empty roads breathing clean air
> ...




Need to add in Africa remains in abject energy poverty.


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## qldfrog (21 October 2021)

kennas said:


> Need to add in the 3rd World / 'developing World' remains in abject energy poverty.



Indeed, and they will not make cement on green energy or drive tesla trucks if there is still coal or oil.


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## noirua (22 March 2022)

Saudi Arabia says it 'won’t bear any responsibility' for a shortage of oil supplies
					

Saudi Arabia's the foreign ministry said "the international community must assume its responsibility to maintain energy supplies," according to state-run Saudi Press Agency.




					www.foxnews.com
				



Saudi Arabia said on Monday that it "won’t bear any responsibility" for a shortage in global oil supplies after a fierce barrage of attacks by Yemen’s Houthi rebels affected production in the kingdom, the world’s largest oil exporter.


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## qldfrog (22 March 2022)

qldfrog said:


> or will be used to justify the green economy:
> step 1: remove investment, forbid exploration and create a crisis
> step 2 POO jumps, and oil rationing or over the roof price unaffordable and make EV nearly the only option
> step 3: the masses are out of the roads, can't afford EV which can not be produced for all anyway stuck in cattle class for train and public transport: Reset achieves and the 0.1% can cruise along in their Tesla on empty roads breathing clean air
> ...



Did not take long for the above to happen @Sean K !!!
This covid scam has really been a Reset booster.
We are nearly there in less than a year with oil


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## noirua (23 March 2022)




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## Sean K (23 March 2022)

noirua said:


> View attachment 139350




Where’s the UN, the ICC, and Red Cross - IHL and Geneva Conventions being broken daily.


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## qldfrog (23 March 2022)

Sean K said:


> Where’s the UN, the ICC, and Red Cross - IHL and Geneva Conventions being broken daily.



We did not see them in Yemen for the last what 5y? where kids were actually starving... Give them time


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## Garpal Gumnut (23 March 2022)

noirua said:


> Saudi Arabia says it 'won’t bear any responsibility' for a shortage of oil supplies
> 
> 
> Saudi Arabia's the foreign ministry said "the international community must assume its responsibility to maintain energy supplies," according to state-run Saudi Press Agency.
> ...



Thanks @noirua 

The Saudis are the kind of jokers who deal with real life, unlike those who deny we are heading for an oil crisis. 

Some of the latter even said Covid-19 was a hoax and that it was all a conspiracy.  

Leaving those aside, I just go on the bowser price, and it is going north on a near daily basis. 

So there is an oil crisis. 

I have had to put the Arnage up on blocks and am now using my old Lancia Beta Coupe to get about town. 

That for me is a crisis. 

DDYOR and EYG. 

gg


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## rcw1 (Yesterday at 8:08 AM)

Good morning
re Saudi Arabia.

Been reported that Saudi Arabia plans to use its own uranium resources to develop a nuclear program for energy purposes....
So then the world’s biggest oil exporter is trying to reduce its dependence on crude ha ha ha ha

“Recent exploration activities revealed the presence of diverse sources of uranium in various locations,” the minister, Prince Abdulaziz bin Salman, told a minerals conference, according to state-run Al-Ekhbariya TV.

Have a very nice day, today.

Kind regards
rcw1


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## Garpal Gumnut (Yesterday at 8:56 AM)

rcw1 said:


> Good morning
> re Saudi Arabia.
> 
> Been reported that Saudi Arabia plans to use its own uranium resources to develop a nuclear program for energy purposes....
> ...



It is more than likely that the Saudi cousins intend to eventually have a nuclear weapons program. 

Having said that a byproduct for them would be cleaner energy for them alone. I doubt if they consider the rest of the world in their plans. 

gg


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## rcw1 (Yesterday at 9:23 AM)

Garpal Gumnut said:


> It is more than likely that the Saudi cousins intend to eventually have a nuclear weapons program.
> 
> Having said that a byproduct for them would be cleaner energy for them alone. I doubt if they consider the rest of the world in their plans.
> 
> gg



Hello Garpal Gumnut
Hoping you are keeping the Ross Island patrons in check   The pub hopefully has drycleaned the red carpet for the commencement of the NRL season ha ha ha ha ha, to ready it for furhter alcohol etc.  stains ha ha ha ha.

A tick to both statements and a like from rcw1 not sure the Israeli government would be too pleased.... though.

Have a good day Garpal Gumnut.

Kind regards
rcw1


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## UMike (Yesterday at 10:22 AM)

The less they use, the more they can sell to the Oil dependent world.


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## rcw1 (Yesterday at 10:30 AM)

UMike said:


> The less they use, the more they can sell to the Oil dependent world.



yes UMike no doubt about that one.  On the oil ... 


EDIT spelling error fixed
Kind regards
rcw1


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## waterbottle (Yesterday at 11:00 AM)

Report: EU Sanctions On Crude, Products Could Cost Russia $300 Million Per Day | OilPrice.com
					

Once new European Union restrictions on Russian oil products come into force on February 5, Russia could face losses of around $300 million per day, a new report from a Finnish research center predicts




					oilprice.com
				




Meanwhile US crude oil stock of 18mln barrels, way above expectations of 2mln. Not usually the case for Christmas... But it was the case during COVID. Sign of a slowdown?


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## divs4ever (Yesterday at 11:05 AM)

rcw1 said:


> Good morning
> re Saudi Arabia.
> 
> Been reported that Saudi Arabia plans to use its own uranium resources to develop a nuclear program for energy purposes....
> ...



more likely trying to cut it's dependence  on US support  in defending the nation ( after all that is what is said about Iran )


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