# NVN - Novion Property Group



## robots (17 July 2007)

hello,

anybody taking up the offer of 2.15/share

bit of a discount to market price of around 2.22/share

have a nice day

thankyou

robots


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## brianwh (8 November 2010)

*Re: CFX - CFS Retail Property Trust*

I am currently reading over CFX's Unit Purchase Plan (UPP) in which they are offering current Unitholders the opportunity to buy shares up to a value of $15000 at $1.86 per share - but the price in the market on Friday was about $1.81!!!! Am I missing something?


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## skc (8 November 2010)

*Re: CFX - CFS Retail Property Trust*



brianwh said:


> I am currently reading over CFX's Unit Purchase Plan (UPP) in which they are offering current Unitholders the opportunity to buy shares up to a value of $15000 at $1.86 per share - but the price in the market on Friday was about $1.81!!!! Am I missing something?




The share price has fallen a bit since the plan was announced. You can always elect not to purchase new units. Especially if you think buying something worth $1.80 for $1.86 is not particularly attractive


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## So_Cynical (8 November 2010)

*Re: CFX - CFS Retail Property Trust*



brianwh said:


> I am currently reading over CFX's Unit Purchase Plan (UPP) in which they are offering current Unitholders the opportunity to buy shares up to a value of $15000 at $1.86 per share - but the price in the market on Friday was about $1.81!!!! Am I missing something?




Got down to $1.78 today  probably fair to say the UPP wasn't discounted enough, ive seen this happen quite a few times over the last 3 years with other stocks, over the longer term it usually doesn't mean much...if i can exit one of my open trades this week CFX looks very tempting at under $1.80  and i would like a retail focused real estate stock.


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## skc (8 November 2010)

*Re: CFX - CFS Retail Property Trust*

Pretty sharp falls on CFX since the interest rate rise. But instos selling out retail trusts to buy into the new Westfield Retail Trust might also contribute.

Probably hasn't change that much fundamentally.


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## So_Cynical (16 November 2010)

*Re: CFX - CFS Retail Property Trust*

Into CFX today at $1.77 ~ i needed some retail therapy  ive recycled my CTN money with a little extra into this, my first proper Retail property stock....buying in at under the cap raising is always a plus especially in a stock with such manageable debt and a general lack of any issues, with a dividend coming up and guidance confirmed today at around 12.5 cents per share, CFX seems to me to be a total no brainer.


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## brty (17 November 2010)

*Re: CFX - CFS Retail Property Trust*

Mr Cynical,

I think you are stalking my watch list. This is a buy for me if it gets down to ~$1.70 and meanders to there from here.

brty


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## Tukker (17 November 2010)

*Re: CFX - CFS Retail Property Trust*



robots said:


> hello,
> 
> anybody taking up the offer of 2.15/share
> 
> ...




Posted in 2007



So_Cynical said:


> Into CFX today at $1.77 ~ i needed some retail therapy  ive recycled my CTN money with a little extra into this, my first proper Retail property stock....*buying in at under the cap raising is always a plus especially in a stock with such manageable debt and a general lack of any issues*, with a dividend coming up and guidance confirmed today at around 12.5 cents per share, CFX seems to me to be a total no brainer.




Posted in 2010 

Interesting to see the turnout of this.  I too believe the share is approaching fair/discounted value, but do not believe a technical low has been formed as yet.  Will post chart when i return home.


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## So_Cynical (17 November 2010)

*Re: CFX - CFS Retail Property Trust*



Tukker said:


> Interesting to see the turnout of this.  I too believe the share is approaching fair/discounted value, but do not believe a technical low has been formed as yet.




I have to admit that i am consistently a little early in my entry's....sometimes way to early. :dunno: interesting to see the property sector hold up well today with only small falls in general.


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## So_Cynical (3 February 2011)

*Re: CFX - CFS Retail Property Trust*



So_Cynical said:


> (16th-November-2010) Into CFX today at $1.77 ~ i needed some retail therapy  ive recycled my CTN money with a little extra into this, my first proper Retail property stock....buying in at under the cap raising is always a plus especially in a stock with such manageable debt and a general lack of any issues, with a dividend coming up and guidance confirmed today at around 12.5 cents per share, CFX seems to me to be a total no brainer.




As the chart shows below...it was a total no brainer, CFX became my 45th winning trade today 11 weeks after entry and about 5 weeks after the dividend date, total profit including dividend was 15.4 CPS (about 8%) keen to re-enter and build my position and free carry the next time CFX has a dip.



brty said:


> Mr Cynical,
> 
> I think you are stalking my watch list. This is a buy for me if it gets down to ~$1.70 and meanders to there from here.
> 
> brty




$1.74 looks to have been the bottom.



Tukker said:


> Interesting to see the turnout of this.  I too believe the share is approaching fair/discounted value, but do not believe a technical low has been formed as yet.  Will post chart when i return home.




Not sure if it was a technical low...but i do know it was low enough for me.
~


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## brty (3 February 2011)

*Re: CFX - CFS Retail Property Trust*

Good trade, well done. As you noted I was obviously waiting a little longer and missed the opportunity. It is all I can do to wait for my setups. 

I'm curious to know why you exited where you did, as I would be looking for some resistance at ~$1.92-4?? and looking at that point as a potential exit. 

Looking at your win rate over the last few years ~80% with a good risk reward ratio, is impressive. I have a similar ratio but also a column of "scrub trades", those that I exit after time stop for no real loss or gain. I've been told by some that an 80% win rate is not possible, I thought you were stalking my watchlist, obviously we use a similar system.

brty


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## So_Cynical (3 February 2011)

*Re: CFX - CFS Retail Property Trust*



brty said:


> I'm curious to know why you exited where you did, as I would be looking for some resistance at ~$1.92-4?? and looking at that point as a potential exit.
> 
> Looking at your win rate over the last few years ~80% with a good risk reward ratio, is impressive. I have a similar ratio but also a column of "scrub trades", those that I exit after time stop for no real loss or gain. I've been told by some that an 80% win rate is not possible, I thought you were stalking my watchlist, obviously we use a similar system.
> 
> brty




I exited because i have 8 open trades and over the last 10 months ive had opportunity's to exit 4 of those trades with profits of 12% or more...i didn't exit them as i was trialling "letting my winners run"  and thus watched my winners head back down to the bottom of there trading range/s...now im back to my old exit strategy of taking 8 to 10% profit and leaving that in and turning the rest of my capital over.

The guts of my wealth building strategy is re-cycling of capital..statistically a big part of my success is reliant on averaging a trade conclusion every 25 days...and my last exit was HHL on 19 Jan so needed to keep things moving, besides i have a target in mind and bottoms don't last for ever. 

At some point in time CFX will get back to the top of its range ($1.92-4) and with a bit of luck come back down to the bottom of that range so i can buy in again and build my position...im building a dividend stream by leaving my profits in and re-cycling my capital.


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## poverty (5 February 2011)

*Re: CFX - CFS Retail Property Trust*



So_Cynical said:


> I exited because i have 8 open trades and over the last 10 months ive had opportunity's to exit 4 of those trades with profits of 12% or more...i didn't exit them as i was trialling "letting my winners run"  and thus watched my winners head back down to the bottom of there trading range/s




Have you considered impementing a trailing stop on your winners once they reach a certain point?


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## So_Cynical (5 February 2011)

*Re: CFX - CFS Retail Property Trust*



poverty said:


> Have you considered impementing a trailing stop on your winners once they reach a certain point?




Yes i have...and at this point in time i don't use stops...reasoning is thus.

I'm not in a stock for the "trade" there is no room in my strategy for getting stopped out at any price point under where i want to sell (thou have done so out of pure frustration)...so having said that i probably could consider placing a stop at the 8% profit point, but to realistically do that the stock would have to already be at 10% profit and i would be happy to sell there anyway.

I really really have no interest at all in trend following.


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## So_Cynical (5 May 2011)

*Re: CFX - CFS Retail Property Trust*



So_Cynical said:


> (3rd-February-2011) At some point in time *CFX will get back to the top of its range ($1.92*-4) and with a bit of luck come *back down to the bottom of that range so i can buy in again and build my position*...im building a dividend stream by leaving my profits in and re-cycling my capital.




^ I wish i could make 700 > 1000 bucks every time i called a stock price cycle with near perfection....oh that's right i do.  

Back in today at 1.78 dividend in about 7 weeks and ill be out again on the other side for another easy 700 > 1000 bucks. 
~


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## So_Cynical (27 May 2011)

*Re: CFX - CFS Retail Property Trust*



So_Cynical said:


> ^ I wish i could make 700 > 1000 bucks every time i called a stock price cycle with near perfection....oh that's right i do.
> 
> Back in today at 1.78 dividend in about 7 weeks and ill be out again on the other side for another easy 700 > 1000 bucks.
> ~




Well i only made $300 bucks this time  of course i was right again  and have thus completed trade number 63 today and in doing so have increased my winners to 52,  i haven't checked the expectancy as i doubt its changed with such a small winner.

Statistically i needed to complete a trade and CFX was the stock that hit the magic (exit) number today $1.865 ~ i sold 90% of my latest parcel, lifting my free-carry % slightly and increasing my CPS slightly...happy to keep building my position in CFX, buying on the dips, leaving my profits in, increasing my free-carry and building my revenue stream.


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## So_Cynical (12 January 2012)

*Re: CFX - CFS Retail Property Trust*

I completely sold out today at $1.81 for a little over a 1% profit (average) on the 3 parcels i hold, and about 6.5% in distributions over the  22 months i have held the original parcel for...over all any winner is a good winner. 

I'm nowhere near as keen as i was on retail property and keen to move on plus trusts are a pain in the ass come tax time.


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## nulla nulla (13 January 2012)

*Re: CFX - CFS Retail Property Trust*

CFX hasn't tracked all that well over the last 12 months (unlike other reit's like cpa and dxs to name a couple).  While the volitility has created opportunities for the odd trade, imo it hasn't had the same good paterns for swing trading as the other reit's. There are better opportunities and returns on others.

I try not to buy and hold for long periods unless the dividends and franking outweigh any capital retraces (although I have been caught with a couple) . 

Your stats are still looking good.


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## nulla nulla (8 November 2012)

*Re: CFX - CFS Retail Property Trust Group*

It appears that cfx has taken a hit in the fall out of the American election. It is possible that some overseas investors have taken advantage of the improved Aud$ against the US$ to take their profits and take their money home to ride out their own storms (no pun intended). It will be interesting to see whether the previous support levels hold and cfx rebounds from here or whether lower support levels are tested.




Not-with-standing, cfx is sneaking up to a good dividend (ex-div pre xmas) payable in February 2013 and the div at these price levels pushes the annualised yield into the 6.5% arena. IMO the sell down is a little over the top. But then, what would I know? . As always do your own research and good luck.


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## starman45 (11 November 2012)

*Re: CFX - CFS Retail Property Trust Group*

Resistance in area 2 is very strong


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## nulla nulla (23 March 2013)

*Re: CFX - CFS Retail Property Trust Group*

Where $2.00 appeared to be a resistance level a few months back, it appears to have become a support level this year.






An increase in employment in the wholesaling sector credited to a rise in online shopping requiring more warehousing distribution centres appears to be underpinning the share price of CFX. 


*Share:* *	CFX*    *Date:*  *22-Mar-13*    *Closing Price* 	2.07	 *Issued Shares* 	2,828,495,659	 *Capital* 	5,854,986,014	 *Earnings $* 	0.1148	 *ROE* 	5.55%	 *Dist $* 	0.134	 *Yield %* 	6.47%	 *P/E* 	18.03	 *NTA $* 	2.05	 *Discount to NTA* 	-0.98%	


The yields at this level are still attractive and there appears to be no problem finding buyers to replace skittish profit takers. As always do your own research and good luck .


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## nulla nulla (7 April 2013)

*Re: CFX - CFS Retail Property Trust Group*

Jumping arround like a hyped up grass hopper, cfx continues to move sideways in a range between $2.01 and $2.09 with the occaisional stratospheric leap to $2.11+. Growth opportunities (or the lack of them) seem to be the only thing holding cfx back from climbing into the premium to NTA area in a similar manner to some of the other bigger A-REIT's. Sellers taking their profit and getting out ahead of the collapse of Europe, the North Korean Nuclear war and the collapse of the U.S. economy (when they next hit their fiscal cliff) appear to be equally matched with buyers looking for returns better than bonds and bank rates.





 *	Share:	*  *	CFX	*    *	Date:	*  *	5-Apr-13	*    *	Closing Price	*  *	$2.04	*  *	Issued Shares	*  *	2,828,495,659	*  *	Capital	*  *	5,770,131,144	*  *	Earnings $	*  *	0.1148	*  *	ROE	*  *	5.63%	*  *	Dist $	*  *	0.134	*  *	Yield %	*  *	6.57%	*  *	P/E	*  *	17.77	*  *	NTA $	*  *	2.05	*  *	Discount to NTA	*  *	0.49%	* 


Lots of volitility and lots of opportunity for the risk takers. As always, do your own research and good luck.


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## Garpal Gumnut (7 April 2013)

*Re: CFX - CFS Retail Property Trust Group*



nulla nulla said:


> Jumping arround like a hyped up grass hopper, cfx continues to move sideways in a range between $2.01 and $2.09 with the occaisional stratospheric leap to $2.11+. Growth opportunities (or the lack of them) seem to be the only thing holding cfx back from climbing into the premium to NTA area in a similar manner to some of the other bigger A-REIT's. Sellers taking their profit and getting out ahead of the collapse of Europe, the North Korean Nuclear war and the collapse of the U.S. economy (when they next hit their fiscal cliff) appear to be equally matched with buyers looking for returns better than bonds and bank rates.
> 
> View attachment 51675
> 
> ...




Tell me about it, a conundrum for holders.

gg


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## nulla nulla (12 April 2013)

*Re: CFX - CFS Retail Property Trust Group*

Well GG you should be happier today. A sprint to new highs on the back of a 2% jump in the A-REIT sector. It will be interesting to see how far it goes and how long it lasts. The undercurrent in the economy appears to be that the share market it on the cusp of a period of bull market activity. However, I feel many of the A-REIT's will need to demonstrate the capacity for growth and improved yields to sustain higher share prices.




As always, do your own research and good luck.


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## Garpal Gumnut (12 April 2013)

*Re: CFX - CFS Retail Property Trust Group*



nulla nulla said:


> Well GG you should be happier today. A sprint to new highs on the back of a 2% jump in the A-REIT sector. It will be interesting to see how far it goes and how long it lasts. The undercurrent in the economy appears to be that the share market it on the cusp of a period of bull market activity. However, I feel many of the A-REIT's will need to demonstrate the capacity for growth and improved yields to sustain higher share prices.
> 
> View attachment 51746
> 
> ...




Yes I was thinking of you nulla, when I looked at the end of day.

I very nearly sold my CFX about a week ago.

I think you are on the money and glad that it has broken above the range.

Time will tell.

gg


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## nulla nulla (20 April 2013)

*Re: CFX - CFS Retail Property Trust Group*

It looks like a lot of cheap foriegn money is finding its' way into the A-REIT sector and CFX is no exception. New highs this week and the potential for more as the yields, even after compression, are better than banks interest rates.




A comparison of the fundamentals for the last three weeks suggests that CFX is capable of moving higher while maitaining a yield of 5% or better for the buy and holders. I'm happy to wait until a pattern stabilises before I jump in for any trades.  As always do your own research and good luck .


*	Share:	*  *	CFX	*  *	CFX	*  *	CFX	*      *	Date:	*  *	5-Apr-13	*  *	12-Apr-13	*  *	19-Apr-13	*      *	Closing Price	*  *	2.04	*  *	2.14	*  *	2.19	*  *	Issued Shares	*  *	2,828,495,659	*  *	2,828,495,659	*  *	2,828,495,659	*  *	Capital	*  *	5,770,131,144	*  *	6,052,980,710	*  *	6,194,405,493	*  *	Earnings $	*  *	0.1148	*  *	0.1148	*  *	0.1148	*  *	ROE	*  *	5.63%	*  *	5.36%	*  *	5.24%	*  *	Dist $	*  *	0.134	*  *	0.134	*  *	0.134	*  *	Yield %	*  *	6.57%	*  *	6.26%	*  *	6.12%	*  *	P/E	*  *	17.77	*  *	18.64	*  *	19.08	*  *	NTA $	*  *	2.05	*  *	2.05	*  *	2.05	*  *	Discount to NTA	*  *	0.49%	*  *	-4.39%	*  *	-6.83%	*


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## nulla nulla (27 April 2013)

*Re: CFX - CFS Retail Property Trust Group*

In the close on Friday 26/3/13 *CFX* managed to hold last weeks closing price of *$2.19*. There was some interesting action in the range between $2.19 and $2.24 through the week but the spread was a little tight for me to consider a trade. The possiblility of a retrace to levels closer to nta values after the recent climbs makes me a little risk adverse. Happy to wait until the price action regains some concistancy.




As always. do your own research and good luck.


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## nulla nulla (18 May 2013)

*Re: CFX - CFS Retail Property Trust Group*

This week CFX continued to track sideways in the range $2.18 to $2.24. However the chase for yield by some local and overseas investors is being countered by the sell down of the Aud$ which has prompted some off-shore investors to take the profits. Fortunately some of the sell off has been matched by new investor buying in. Unfortunately though cfx did close on $2.19 for the week and we will have to wait for next week to see whether or not this level will hold as a support level or the share price fall lower.




As always, do your own research and good luck.


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## nulla nulla (23 May 2013)

*Re: CFX - CFS Retail Property Trust Group*

Ouch!  The A-REIT sector dropped yesterday by over 2% but CFX dropped by over 4%. Not sure whether this was a reweighting by the sophisticated and professional investors rejigging their portfolio's to cover their take up of the $400million SGP issue or whether their was something more onerous starting.




At anyrate I opted not to jump in at $2.18 and decided to see where this goes before jumping in.  At this level the yield is still good. CFX is due to go exdiv in June with a payment in August, that could encourage investors back in to support the price.


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## skc (23 May 2013)

*Re: CFX - CFS Retail Property Trust Group*



nulla nulla said:


> Ouch!  The A-REIT sector dropped yesterday by over 2% but CFX dropped by over 4%. Not sure whether this was a reweighting by the sophisticated and professional investors rejigging their portfolio's to cover their take up of the $400million SGP issue or whether their was something more onerous starting.
> 
> At anyrate I opted not to jump in at $2.18 and decided to see where this goes before jumping in.  At this level the yield is still good. CFX is due to go exdiv in June with a payment in August, that could encourage investors back in to support the price.




Sentiment on the whole sector has changed dramatically this week and all REITs are well off their highs. 

There's a round of capital raising going through (MGR, SGP, CMW) so definitely some caution out there. There's also the fact that price/NTA has probably gone a bit over the top for some of the REITs... Granted some of these names have have development profits, but some of the recent transactions were only done at or below book value.


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## nulla nulla (23 May 2013)

*Re: CFX - CFS Retail Property Trust Group*

I suspect it is more likely an exodus of off-shore investors. It seems to be too large and broad to be just local fund managers lockking in profits and/or rejigging their portfolios. 

Hard to see this as being a direct result of Ben Bernake talking about reducing quantative easing. But then again, half the recent volatility has been due to investors spooking on any suggestion that the QE would eventualy stop.


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## skc (23 May 2013)

*Re: CFX - CFS Retail Property Trust Group*



nulla nulla said:


> I suspect it is more likely an exodus of off-shore investors. It seems to be too large and broad to be just local fund managers lockking in profits and/or rejigging their portfolios.
> 
> Hard to see this as being a direct result of Ben Bernake talking about reducing quantative easing. But then again, half the recent volatility has been due to investors spooking on any suggestion that the QE would eventualy stop.




Probably the AUD fall as much as anything. 96c is a key level and we are going there with a fair bit of conviction.


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## nulla nulla (1 June 2013)

*Re: CFX - CFS Retail Property Trust Group*

Seems the Aud$ falling to US$0.96 (and lower) has prompted a lot of off-shore investors to sell out their holdings. There was a large sell off in fridays closing auction that pushed the close down to $2.01 which was three cents ($0.03) lower than the lowest price before 4:00pm.




I held off entering until late Friday at $2.04, so I'm already three cents in the red. Bugger. I think the sell down of the dollar is hype by the likes of Soros and Goldman Sachs more than any real improvement of the US economy versus a failing in ours. However the market is the market and there is no guarantee our REIT's will rebound at the same rate they fell. A manual stop loss will be implemented if CFX keeps tracking south. The CFX yield is one of the higher ones so that should help support the price......maybe.

As always do your own research and good luck.


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## nulla nulla (27 October 2013)

*Re: CFX - CFS Retail Property Trust Group*

The yield was not enough to slow the drop and I exited at $1.975. This was the first time since September 2009 that the CFX share price has fallen more than 3% after an entry causing me to exit on a stop loss (and incur losses on two parcels). Fortunately the volitility since the lows have provided ample opportunities (trading in a tight range) to recover the losses plus a bit more.




Like most A-REIT's CFX has bounced off the May/June lows. CFX looked like dipping again but received some support semingly related to the Dexus take-over offer for CPA. It appears that the market may be expecting the largest share holder in CFX to mount a full take-over but nothing has happened. The CFX directors are still evaluating the invitation for them to take of the management of themselves from CBA but are yet to reach a conclusion. In the meantime their latest report is good and suggest that although the future may be challenging it should still be rewarding for CFX holders. As always do your own research and goodluck.


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## nulla nulla (16 November 2013)

*Re: CFX - CFS Retail Property Trust Group*

CFX bounced off the support level of $1.96 when the Aud$ seemed to stabilise and some confidence came back into the A-REIT sector. No doubt the relationship with CBA and CPA and the move for CFX and CPA to self manage themselves attracted market interest, particularly with Dexus making an offer for CPA. The CFX share price worked its way back up to $2.08 before it ran out of steam. No take-over offers for CFX and not a lot from the independant directors on the self manage idea and the share price has drifted back down. 




While there has been support at $2.02, Fridays bounce to close at $2.04 isn't overly convincing. Friday was pretty much an up day across the market and the last two weeks price action suggest that there may be a pennant forming with the possibility of CFX testing the $2.02 for a break downwards (?). If it does push downwards the next support level is arround $1.96. CFX will go exdiv in December and there is some history of a price lift in the leadup to the exdiv date. Mind you there is also some history of the share price being pushed down before the exdiv date as well , hard call this one.

On a personal perspective if the price does push down to $1.96 and I have any spare cash, I will probably buy for a distribution and capital gain play. Mind you, the time frame for this tactic can be a bit stretched out. As always do your own research and good luck .


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## nulla nulla (6 April 2014)

*Re: CFX - CFS Retail Property Trust Group*

It has been a while since anyone has posted about CFX. The self management option has been exercised by the board for CFX and the Commonwealth Bank has been paid a hefty fee to exit the picture. CFX did a small capital raising to cover the $400million plus costs and the share price jumped around a bit while the process was underway.




Once again in the last few weeks, CFX dipped to the lows of $1.87 (following a general downturn of the whole A-REIT Sector). However, as in the past, CFX found plenty of buy support and has now rallied to close out on Friday at $1.93. We accumulated five (5) parcels tracking down from $1.92 to $1.89 but had run out of funds when it tested $1.865. The lowest price parcel was let go on Friday at $1.93 for a 1.8% profit (after brokerage) for a seven day hold. If it retraces again we will aim for another entry around $1.91. In the absence of any Sunami's, outbreaks of war and a collapse of the Chinese Banking system I expect CFX to return to the high $1.90's, possibly even the low $2.00's, particularly in the lead up to the ex-div date for the next distribution.


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## nulla nulla (9 April 2014)

*Re: CFX - CFS Retail Property Trust Group*



A funny thing happened today. At roughly 10:20am our Cable Internet service dropped out, due to upgrade work being done in our area. In the time it took for me to change over to an ADSL service (which we were in  the process of closing) CFX moved through the sell price of our second parcel at $1.955. I had intended to sell a third parcel at $1.965, then load further sells at $1.97 and $1.98 to close out the remaining trades. 

By the time I managed to get reconnected with ADSL the share price had hit $1.975/$1.98 and by the time I started keying in the sell bids it was $1.98/$1.985. All three remaining trades went through at $1.98. Sure the price subsequently tested $1.995 but a trade is a trade is a trade.




The price rebound was much faster (and higher) than I expected. Maybe Tony Abbotts tour of Japan encouraged the Japanese to invest in A-REIT's? I wonder if the A-REIT's are going to emulate the surge of last April/May?


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## nulla nulla (26 April 2014)

*Re: CFX - CFS Retail Property Trust Group*

CFX continued to climb of the recent lows hitting the low $2.00 range well ahead of my anticipated timeframes. After the share price tested $2.00 I was expecting a retrace below $1.96 for a re-entry however it didn't happen.




One thing worth noting for the future is the consistency of CFX rebounding to the high $1.90's/low $2.00's everytime it tests the support levels around $1.90 (+/- 3 cents). As always do your own research and good luck.


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## nulla nulla (12 July 2014)

*Re: CFX - CFS Retail Property Trust Group*

CFX rebounded to the low $2.00's, then climbed for the div hunters to over $2.10 then dropped after going ex-div. Although most of the other A-REIT's have performed better since going Ex-div, CFX has been slow to recover further, possibly due to the drop off in retail and consumer confidence post budget.




Finding a lot of support at the $2.03 - $2.04 level for the fast two weeks, CFX appears to be struggling to get back above $2.05 - $2.06. Volumes of turnover have been good and it occurs to me (after the change of substantial holding otice from Uni-Super) that some of the bigger investment funds may be holding the price down while they accumulate? The MACD chart shows CFX is closing the gap from recent prices to the moving average (converging) mainly due to the moving average drifting back to the recent price action levels. The Relative Strength chart indicated CFX is in oversold territory. Personally I'm expecting a rebound the $2.08 - $2.09 plus levels, but I'm probably biased as I hold. As always do your own research and good luck.


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## coolcup (12 July 2014)

*Re: CFX - CFS Retail Property Trust Group*

It could also be that with Scentre Group now on the boards, there is a true comparable for CFX which investors see as greater value (lower premium to NTA, etc). I suspect there has been some switching between the two this week.


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## nulla nulla (10 August 2014)

*Re: CFX - CFS Retail Property Trust Group*

The CFX share price not only rebounded from the $2.03 - $2.04 levels to the anticipated $2.09 it continued up to tickle $2.19. Someone must have miss read the script and kept buying when the share price pushed above $2.11. Last time CFX dipped to the $2.03 - $2.04 levels it looked like it was being held there while someone was accumulating on a largish scale. This time the share price has been pushed down on global uncertainty factors which usually means international investors are pulling the funds out of the share market and switching to US bonds as a safe haven for their dollars. This suspicion is supported somewhat by the fall in the Aud$ against the US$ (although the "jaw boning" by Glen Stevens could contribute to this also).







	Code				Closing Price					Capital				Earnings $				ROE				Dist $					Yield %					P/E				NTA $				Premium to NTA		           CFX  *	2.050	*​  6,187,004,161​  0.1255​  6.12%​  0.1360​  * 6.63%​ *  16.33​  2.02​  1.49%​ 

With a yield of 6.63%, a price earnings ratio of 16.33 and the reporting season getting underway, traders may be wondering if this is a good point to enter for a trade or will the global uncertainty factors push the price down further? Hard call. As always do your own research and good luck.


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## coolcup (10 August 2014)

*Re: CFX - CFS Retail Property Trust Group*



nulla nulla said:


> Code				Closing Price					Capital				Earnings $				ROE				Dist $					Yield %					P/E				NTA $				Premium to NTA		           CFX  *	2.050	*​  6,187,004,161​  0.1255​  6.12%​  0.1360​  * 6.63%​ *  16.33​  2.02​  1.49%​




Hi nulla

Really enjoy reading your updates. Just FYI, CFX's NTA is $1.88 post the internalisation of the Colonial management platform earlier this year. This makes the premium to NTA slightly higher than the table in your post which reflects the value of the management rights which it acquired from CBA.

Cheers


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## nulla nulla (10 August 2014)

*Re: CFX - CFS Retail Property Trust Group*

Sorry about that. 
let me know if you see any others I have missed. 


	Code				Closing Price					Capital				Earnings $				ROE				Dist $					Yield %					P/E				NTA $				Premium to NTA		           CFX  *	2.050	*​  6,187,004,161​  0.1255​  6.12%​  0.1360​  * 6.63%​ *  16.33​  1.88​  9.04%​


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## nulla nulla (6 September 2014)

*Re: CFX - CFS Retail Property Trust Group*

I find this tempting for a trade entry at the moment. I can't decide as to whether CFX can bounce off support at $2.11 or if it will retest support at $2.04 - $2.05 as it has before?


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## nulla nulla (9 September 2014)

*Re: CFX - CFS Retail Property Trust Group*



> Silveranger: There, CFX heard your call and caught up
> 
> Sometimes I really wonder how those rumours got started, last week they were on about WFD being the takeover target, and now CFX.




G'day Silver Ranger.

Is there a take over rumour circulating for CFX?


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## coolcup (9 September 2014)

*Re: CFX - CFS Retail Property Trust Group*



nulla nulla said:


> G'day Silver Ranger.
> 
> Is there a take over rumour circulating for CFX?




There sure is. Apparently Simon Property Group executives flew in to Sydney to hold talks with CFX as their entry to the Australian retail market and are more disposed to the CFX portfolio with its DFO outlets than the Scentre Group portfolio. It was reported in the Australian and AFR.


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## nulla nulla (10 September 2014)

*Re: CFX - CFS Retail Property Trust Group*



coolcup said:


> There sure is. Apparently Simon Property Group executives flew in to Sydney to hold talks with CFX as their entry to the Australian retail market and are more disposed to the CFX portfolio with its DFO outlets than the Scentre Group portfolio. It was reported in the Australian and AFR.




My good fortune was to fall to temptation and accumulate two modest parcels as it fell past $2.12 then sell them into the run up on the rumour. Must send "Simon" a thank you card.


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## coolcup (10 September 2014)

*Re: CFX - CFS Retail Property Trust Group*



nulla nulla said:


> My good fortune was to fall to temptation and accumulate two modest parcels as it fell past $2.12 then sell them into the run up on the rumour. Must send "Simon" a thank you card.




There was a Citigroup note out this morning saying they spoke with the Simon Property Group CEO last night who categorically denied he was in Sydney or was looking at a deal with CFX. No comment re Westfield or Scentre though...


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## nulla nulla (10 September 2014)

*Re: CFX - CFS Retail Property Trust Group*



coolcup said:


> There was a Citigroup note out this morning saying they spoke with the Simon Property Group CEO last night who categorically denied he was in Sydney or was looking at a deal with CFX. No comment re Westfield or Scentre though...




There is an article on Bloomberg today to the effect that the Simon Group has indicated that it is not part of their plans to invest in Australian REIT's. The A-REIT market has opened down today with SCG and CFX down more than the average.


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## skc (10 September 2014)

*Re: CFX - CFS Retail Property Trust Group*



nulla nulla said:


> My good fortune was to fall to temptation and accumulate two modest parcels as it fell past $2.12 then sell them into the run up on the rumour. Must send "Simon" a thank you card.




Same here... you got to love takeover rumours in your favour.


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## VSntchr (10 September 2014)

*Re: CFX - CFS Retail Property Trust Group*



skc said:


> Same here... you got to love takeover rumours in your favour.




I actually sold my CFX on the close the afternoon before the rumour 

But my SCG short paid off this morning with the squashing of the rumour


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## SilverRanger (10 September 2014)

*Re: CFX - CFS Retail Property Trust Group*



VSntchr said:


> I actually sold my CFX on the close the afternoon before the rumour
> 
> But my SCG short paid off this morning with the squashing of the rumour




I still hold, not much difference to you really. Wasn't expecting "Simon" to comment on rumours, very bad practice...


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## nulla nulla (10 September 2014)

*Re: CFX - CFS Retail Property Trust Group*



SilverRanger said:


> I still hold, not much difference to you really. Wasn't expecting "Simon" to comment on rumours, very bad practice...




I think the denial would be standard practice whether they are interested or not. I wonder if the "Australian" and the "Fin Review" will publish retractions?


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## SilverRanger (11 September 2014)

*Re: CFX - CFS Retail Property Trust Group*



nulla nulla said:


> I think the denial would be standard practice whether they are interested or not. I wonder if the "Australian" and the "Fin Review" will publish retractions?




A "no comment" would have been nice, at least that keeps the dream alive for some 
The newspapers love these kind of "street talks", I saw it started last week with WFD, and now CFX, they might as well complete the saga with SCG.


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## nulla nulla (11 September 2014)

*Re: CFX - CFS Retail Property Trust Group*



SilverRanger said:


> A "no comment" would have been nice, at least that keeps the dream alive for some
> The newspapers love these kind of "street talks", I saw it started last week with WFD, and now CFX, they might as well complete the saga with SCG.




Yes the McQuarrie Bank line "We do not comment on media speculation" is the best response. Keeps everyone guessing.


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## nulla nulla (21 September 2014)

*Re: CFX - CFS Retail Property Trust Group*

CFX seemed to be holding up on Thursday/Friday but a savage sell off in the closing auction, with more than fifteen million shares flooding the market, saw the closing price pushed down to $1.98. At one stage the volume was going to push the closing price down from the last trade before 4:00pm at $2.00 to $1.90. Fortunately for holders there was enough buyer support to soak up most of the dump.


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## VSntchr (21 September 2014)

*Re: CFX - CFS Retail Property Trust Group*



nulla nulla said:


> Fortunately for holders there was enough buyer support to soak up most of the dump.
> 
> 
> View attachment 59492




I grabbed a few in the dump..was certainly interesting at about 4:05 when it was looking like $1.90 was coming!


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## coolcup (21 September 2014)

*Re: CFX - CFS Retail Property Trust Group*

Looks like some large insto has switched in the match out of CFX and into SCG - at least when combining the way CFX moved in the match to SCG's positive momentum in the match.


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## nulla nulla (21 September 2014)

*Re: CFX - CFS Retail Property Trust Group*



VSntchr said:


> I grabbed a few in the dump..was certainly interesting at about 4:05 when it was looking like $1.90 was coming!




I lobbed two (2) bids at $1.975 hopeful to pick up between the initial $1.90 indicated and $1.97 but demand pushed the close up to $1.98. I missed out on a top-up, not a problem. I will re-evaluate on Monday morning. 



coolcup said:


> Looks like some large insto has switched in the match out of CFX and into SCG - at least when combining the way CFX moved in the match to SCG's positive momentum in the match.




The value of the overall buy into scg was almost double the sell off in cfx. I agree that the volumes of the dump in cfx and the surge in scg indicate a switch but I suspect that there were additional funds pushed in as well. Is it possible some of the dump came from Abacus, which dropped almost 10% (for the week)? At this point SCG is the largest company in the A-REIT sector.


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## System (3 November 2014)

On November 3rd, 2014, CFS Retail Property Trust Group (CFX) changed its name and ASX code to Novion Property Group (NVN).


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## System (15 June 2015)

On June 12th, 2015, Novion Property Group (NVN) was removed from the ASX's official list following implementation of the schemes of arrangement by which Federation Centres acquired all of the securities in the Group.


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