# Outlook given by experts - ulterior motive?



## Tyler Durden (11 November 2014)

Almost every week, if not every day, you see in the papers some expert making predictions about the economy in the future - property boom, property bubble, property bust, recession, market crash, China slow down, Euro collapse etc. We are told a lot of these experts are credible because they predicted x event in the past.

It's always interesting to read these articles, but I often wonder if there is an ulterior motive for them to make such predictions? Are they _trying_ to cause a crash? Are they making an argument for a particular scenario in the hopes of affecting the market? Or are they genuinely worried about our wellbeing and giving us a heads up on the future?


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## Taltan (11 November 2014)

Tyler Durden said:


> Almost every week, if not every day, you see in the papers some expert making predictions about the economy in the future - property boom, property bubble, property bust, recession, market crash, China slow down, Euro collapse etc. We are told a lot of these experts are credible because they predicted x event in the past.
> 
> It's always interesting to read these articles, but I often wonder if there is an ulterior motive for them to make such predictions? Are they _trying_ to cause a crash? Are they making an argument for a particular scenario in the hopes of affecting the market? Or are they genuinely worried about our wellbeing and giving us a heads up on the future?




There is always motive. Having said that if they are talking in general about the economy and where it will be in 12 months they have little to gain by being wrong and they are honestly telling what they belive. However if they are telling you mining stock are set to freefall this week there's a good chance they have a buy order on RIO themselves.


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## rimtas (11 November 2014)

They are just herding. Notice how their long-term outlook changes in the light of short term market movements.  I use them as one of socionomic indicators to confirm Minor and Intermediate wave tops/or bottoms. When consensus ir very bulish, be aware of the top and vice versa.


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## skc (11 November 2014)

Tyler Durden said:


> Almost every week, if not every day, you see in the papers some expert making predictions about the economy in the future - property boom, property bubble, property bust, recession, market crash, China slow down, Euro collapse etc. We are told a lot of these experts are credible because they predicted x event in the past.
> 
> It's always interesting to read these articles, but I often wonder if there is an ulterior motive for them to make such predictions? Are they _trying_ to cause a crash? Are they making an argument for a particular scenario in the hopes of affecting the market? Or are they genuinely worried about our wellbeing and giving us a heads up on the future?




I think they are just trying to raise their own profile... and media cover is a good way to achieve that. To get good media coverage you need to say something different, perhaps alarming or sensationalised, and certainly say it with conviction. Generate newsworthiness out of nothingness can be a rewarding skill. And when you make enough predictions, some of them will be correct. Focus on those in your resume...


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## Julia (11 November 2014)

I'm not sure that most of the above is quite fair.  We have sensible people like Chris Richardson offering assessments from time to time in response to a media request for his opinion.
He already has a high profile and sound reputation, so no real need to try to artificially boost himself in the popularity stakes.

Different story when it's some obscure blogger predicting gloom.

One of the most intelligent commentators is Satyajit Das



> Satyajit Das has worked in financial markets for over 30 years. Since 1994, he has acted as a consultant to financial institutions and corporations in Europe, North America, Asia and Australia. Between 1977 and 1994, Mr. Das worked on the 'sell side'(Commonwealth Bank of Australia, CitiGroup and Merrill Lynch) and the 'buy side' (TNT Group, an Australian based international transport and logistics company).
> 
> In 2006, Das presciently anticipated many aspects of the Global Financial Crisis In a speech that year – The Coming Credit Crash – he argued that: "an informed analysis of the structured credit markets shows that risk is not better spread but more leveraged and (arguably) more concentrated amongst hedge funds and a small group of dealers. This does not improve the overall stability and security of the financial system but exposes it to increased risk of a "crash" during a credit downturn." He has continued to be a respected commentator on subsequent developments in the crisis.
> 
> ...



Very much worth taking notice of imo.


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## Tyler Durden (12 November 2014)

One of the articles that I had in mind when making the opening post was:



> In 1929, a businessman and economist by the name of Jerome Levy didn't like what he saw in his analysis of corporate profits. He sold his stocks before the October crash.
> 
> Almost eight decades later, the consultancy company that bears his name declared "the next recession will be caused by the deflating housing bubble." By February 2007, it predicted problems in the subprime-mortgage market would spread "to virtually all financial markets." In October 2007, it saw imminent recession - the slump began two months later.
> 
> ...




http://www.smh.com.au/business/mark...chance-of-2015-recession-20141111-11k2cy.html

Are these types of predictions made to warn us, or is there some sinister behind the veil reasoning for them?


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## sptrawler (13 November 2014)

Tyler Durden said:


> One of the articles that I had in mind when making the opening post was:
> 
> 
> 
> ...




What is more pertinent, what do you do about it?

Put all your money in the bank at 3% possibly going down to 2% and possible currency deflation.

Put your money in dividend paying shares, possibly tanking.

Put your money into real estate, with 2% return, if rented.

Where is it safe to hold your money, if there is a gfc or a recession?


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## Tyler Durden (13 November 2014)

sptrawler said:


> What is more pertinent, what do you do about it?
> 
> Put all your money in the bank at 3% possibly going down to 2% and possible currency deflation.
> 
> ...




Gold baby


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