# YTE magazine - Astrology - you have to be kidding???



## Twiddle (23 May 2010)

I bought A copy of "Your trading edge" magazine the other day. As a newbie I figure getting my hands on as many resources and perspectives would be beneficial.

I am reading through the magazine and my overall impression is good. Then I get to the real estate section and read the words "real estate is ruled by cancer". Other astrological terms and such follow in the sentence and I am waiting for something along the lines of. "So, imagine if we followed such illogical and nonsensical ways of managing our investing..." Thinking that the astrology being spouted was a joke... It turns out not to be, and the article is legitimately attempting to use astrology to predict the real estate market.

Now I am concerned.

Is all the the analysis done in trading really so ineffective that nonsense like astrology can compete on a level playing field?


----------



## Boggo (23 May 2010)

Twiddle said:


> It turns out not to be, and the article is legitimately attempting to use astrology to predict the real estate market.
> 
> Now I am concerned.
> 
> Is all the the analysis done in trading really so ineffective that nonsense like astrology can compete on a level playing field?




I haven't seen that edition but I would hazard a guess that there is an expensive ad somewhere in there for either software or a course, or both than spout astro principles.

Let me know if I am wrong or right.

I buy YTE occasionally, it usually has some good articles.


----------



## Twiddle (23 May 2010)

There is an ad for "school of gann", which is a school run by David Burton, the author if the astrology article.

The ad makes some pretty outrageous claims about a coming recession which will last 12 years, with the real estate market falling 75% and other sensational claims.

I guess the trading field if rife with quackery and fraud... it is just surprising as a newbie to see such things.


----------



## Boggo (23 May 2010)

Twiddle said:


> There is an ad for "school of gann", which is a school run by David Burton, the author if the astrology article.
> 
> The ad makes some pretty outrageous claims about a coming recession which will last 12 years, with the real estate market falling 75% and other sensational claims.
> 
> I guess the trading field if rife with quackery and fraud... it is just surprising as a newbie to see such things.




Lets hope they are not right Twiddle.
There is a lesson to be learned from how articles can be a subtle promotion for products and courses. I am not saying that any product or course is useless if promoted this way, it just tends to dilute the reputation or quality of other articles.

Just my


----------



## Ruby (24 May 2010)

Twiddle,

David Burton is a very successful trader; so was W D Gann.  As you clearly know nothing about astrology, it might be better if you were to reserve your judgement.

Ruby


----------



## brty (24 May 2010)

Ruby,



> David Burton is a very successful trader; so was W D Gann.




What makes you think Gann was a successful trader?? According to his son he died broke and the money he did make came from selling 'education' materials.

brty


----------



## Twiddle (24 May 2010)

Ruby said:


> Twiddle,
> 
> David Burton is a very successful trader; so was W D Gann.  As you clearly know nothing about astrology, it might be better if you were to reserve your judgement.
> 
> Ruby




I love that,.. look at what you wrote to me. 

Seriously, an anonymous person on the internet... "You clearly know nothing about astrology". 

How is that clear to you?

Your next line is "it might be better if you reserve judgement". Wow, isn't that ironic.


----------



## Ruby (24 May 2010)

No need to get into a twist, Twiddle.   When you are new to something (on your own admission) it is not always a good idea to pour scorn on the methods of those who have gone before you - and who are successful. 

Cheers,

Ruby


----------



## Twiddle (24 May 2010)

Ruby said:


> No need to get into a twist, Twiddle.   When you are new to something (on your own admission) it is not always a good idea to pour scorn on the methods of those who have gone before you - and who are successful.
> 
> Cheers,
> 
> Ruby




Ruby, I am not getting into a twist (whatever that means).

You happened to write an ironically hypocritical post to me, and I pointed that out.

I think it is interesting what brty pointed out to you. 

I would also ask you - Have you seen David Burton's trading statements? You seem to imply you have given that you state "David Burton is a very successful trader."

He may be successful financially, but I also note he is in the business of "education". I wonder how much of his income comes through his astrologically guided traidng, compared with how much from his selling "education".

 Do you have the data on this? - I would love to see it.


----------



## Boggo (25 May 2010)

Boggo said:


> I buy YTE occasionally, it usually has some good articles.




Quoting myself above, here is an extract from YTE by Nick Radge, basic common sense but worth reading.

(there are people on here who know better than Nick though  )

http://www.ytemagazine.com/index.php/component/content/article/73-members-area/704-trend-following


----------



## Twiddle (25 May 2010)

Boggo said:


> Quoting myself above, here is an extract from YTE by Nick Radge, basic common sense but worth reading.
> 
> (there are people on here who know better than Nick though  )
> 
> http://www.ytemagazine.com/index.php/component/content/article/73-members-area/704-trend-following




Cheers for that Boggo.

Apart from the astrology article, I found the magazine generally quite good.


----------



## Boggo (25 May 2010)

Twiddle said:


> Cheers for that Boggo.
> 
> Apart from the astrology article, I found the magazine generally quite good.




Yes, I agree, probably the only one worth buying.


----------



## Whiskers (25 May 2010)

Astrology as is commonly practiced is more a loose generalisation of looking into the cycle of things and I think meant just for fun.

There are better and much more detailed ways to study the cycles of things, and the cycles within cycles.


----------



## opulence (30 May 2010)

I think most of the Astrology stuff is as a result of coincidental correspondence with cycles. (E.G the accounting cycle!). 

There's an analogy (and correct me if I'm wrong) to define infinity as the number of monkeys required in a room typing before one randomly produces the complete works of Shakespeare. In much the same way, if you have enough variables eventually, something completely random will have a perfect 1.0 correlation with the markets. 

Far be it for me just a noob to criticise a trading theory though.


----------



## Subwolf (31 May 2010)

Hi all.
I have a subscription to YTE and look forward to the interesting read each 2 months.

I believe the astrology articles are really just a light hearted way to break up the magazine so we are not constantly reading about the same thing all the time. If youve read Peter Lynchs book, he often talks about the stock market going down everytime he progressed in his life. He obviously doesnt take this seriously but it adds a nice little lighthearted break in the book. 
I believe the editors are doing the same thing in YTE.


----------



## gooner (31 May 2010)

Research on using technical analysis suggests that it does not work. So probably has same success rate as astrology


----------



## Trembling Hand (31 May 2010)

gooner said:


> Research on using technical analysis suggests that it does not work. So probably has same success rate as astrology




Define "does not work"

while you're at it define "Research "


----------



## gooner (31 May 2010)

Trembling Hand said:


> Define "does not work"
> 
> while you're at it define "Research "




TH,

By work I mean being able to explain forecast future movements better than a 50:50 up down, corrected for the markets bias to increase over time.  Plenty of research papers have looked at various technical indicators to determine if they can predict future price movements. In general, they do not, although some recent papers suggest there may be some benefit but not enough to cover trading costs. Below is from the net.


Although many in finance now believe that markets are efficient, it is not unanimous.   One group of these people are technical analysts.  These people believe they can predict price movements based on historical prices (a clear violation of weak form efficiency).   Although the vast majority of academic papers finds no benefit to technical analysis, it has long been difficult to explain why there are technical analysts around (how can we say the market is inefficient in keeping technical analysts while say it is efficient in other things).  Several recent academic papers have at least suggested that technical analysis might not be worthless. 


http://www.financeprofessor.com/488/notes/market_efficiency.htm


----------



## Trembling Hand (31 May 2010)

Yes gooner just as I thought. Clueless. Nothing there, show me a real study that proves TA doesn't "work".

Your academics must first learn how its used before they go about trying to prove that it doesn't "work".


----------



## adt100 (31 May 2010)

Um couldnt be arsed to answer this originally but the old efficient market hypothesis got to me. Academics have been arguing this for as long as there have been markets and it is simply flawed. I did all the academic study I care to do in this area and have the qualifications to go with it. 

But in the real world I find academia struggles. What is proven to be the accepted wisdom of the day becomes hypothesis to disprove at a later date for a 'greater wisdom'. 

The simple fact remains to me if the markets are efficient then how do we get long sustainable trends? These trends are far beyond what any bell curve would provide (  the 50/50 arguement being key to efficient market hypothesis).  If it is therefore accepted that markets cannot be efficient then why wouldn't technical anayalysis work? However I think this is the crux of the matter as it depends on how it is used and what you call technical analysis. If I was an academic I think it would take me about 20 mins to look at some indicators decide that they dont work in the accepted form and devise a hypothesis to prove this. I suspect that the answer to the question would therefore have been formed before I have understood the question properly............................


----------



## opulence (1 June 2010)

Call me a conspiracy theorist but I believe that the debate over this is a good thing. I firmly believe that the market must consist of largely fundamentalists in order to facilitate technicians existence. After all, how could all things be discounted by the market if everyone was a technician? 

All it takes is to read something like Market Wizards and you'll see that both work very well. Its mastering something you do poorly that makes the difference. If one side of the fence was wrong then half of the people in that book would not have been able to do what they did.

I guess if you think about property, some like to buy and rent out, some like to develop and sell on, some like to renovate. Master any discipline and you're ahead.

The original post seems to have been hijacked for the age old debate...


----------



## Whiskers (2 June 2010)

opulence said:


> Call me a conspiracy theorist but I believe that the *debate* over this is a good thing.
> 
> 
> The original post seems to have been hijacked for the age old *debate*...




Oh, how I dislike the word 'debate'!

It implies and actually facilitates all the wrong mental setups to most successfully approach life's issues.

But, I accept that we all, me included, were indroctinated to default to this approach by the 'system'. Maybe it's our basic instinct to prove ourselves right... for basic survival.




Trembling Hand said:


> Yes gooner just as I thought. Clueless. Nothing there, show me a real study that proves TA doesn't "work".
> 
> Your academics *must first learn how its used* before they go about trying to prove that it doesn't "work".




Very wise and true words TH.

This applies to the study and understanding of  'cycles' too, which includes the sort of things that astrology is attempting to define. 

It's a... well let's just say that you have to have an open mind and be receptive... maybe, learn how to read the signs of the nature of things, is a better term... and find your meaning and purpose in the bigger scheme of things.

Everyone has their own destiny. We are not all made the same which is the first clue to finding what you can, and are probably supposed (destined) to do better than others. 

But, I degress... Isn't it interesting how much effort and cost is spent on trying to prove or disprove things to or for others, which may be necessary to mainstream a product or concept, such as a new drug or process for accounting, surgery, analysis etc... but a total waste of time when, at an individual level, all we need to know is what works and what is 'best' for us.  

Even then, when it fails it my not be the message thats wrong, but the messenger... ie how we (mis)interpret the information presented to us.

Now... isn't that a whole lot clearer.


----------



## Twiddle (1 July 2010)

Another issue, another astrology article.

Since my original post I have come to learn that astrology/WD Gann is quite commonplace in this arena. How naive I was to get such a shock at first.

No wonder 90% of people lose at this game...

I will stick to real price action with my trading, and leave the prediction for those who believe in magic (astrology).


----------



## Buckfont (1 July 2010)

Twiddle said:


> Another issue, another astrology article.
> 
> Since my original post I have come to learn that astrology/WD Gann is quite commonplace in this arena. How naive I was to get such a shock at first.
> 
> ...




Hey there Twiddle, thought you may enjoy a little light reading before bedtime.

http://www.sacredscience.com/gann/


----------



## Twiddle (1 July 2010)

Haha, cheers mate, but I think I will give it a miss. 

"Sacred science" - what on earth is the word science doing in there...


----------



## hairyhands (20 March 2011)

brty said:


> Ruby,
> 
> 
> 
> ...




You are right Gann did die broke, well infact he left a $100k behind as for his personal fortune of $30/40 Million this was sent to a secret off shore account in the Carribean Islands by his solicitor. Special papers where also destroyed by his Solicitor as part of Ganns wishes. Gann believed in hard work and did not wish to give his fortune away to those who had not worked for it.

It is believed that Gann was actually poisoned by the american mob. In those days the mob owned the illegal casinos near the borders of mexico and Gann would visit these and clean them out using his systems. Gann was genuis, people should try reading his books, the man is clearly very bright, very clever. His hard work as a speculator was likened to that of Thomas Edision.

Gann has been studied by and tutored a number of bright academics, this was not a man who simply wrote books. GL


----------



## tothemax6 (20 March 2011)

Twiddle said:


> I bought A copy of "Your trading edge" magazine the other day. As a newbie I figure getting my hands on as many resources and perspectives would be beneficial.
> 
> I am reading through the magazine and my overall impression is good. Then I get to the real estate section and read the words "real estate is ruled by cancer". Other astrological terms and such follow in the sentence and I am waiting for something along the lines of. "So, imagine if we followed such illogical and nonsensical ways of managing our investing..." Thinking that the astrology being spouted was a joke... It turns out not to be, and the article is legitimately attempting to use astrology to predict the real estate market.
> 
> ...



Lol, I am not surprised. I always say you can always guarantee one thing: "nothing is ever so insane or stupid, as to prevent its uptake as a popular belief".


----------



## Dale Mc (19 June 2012)

tothemax6 said:


> Lol, I am not surprised. I always say you can always guarantee one thing: "nothing is ever so insane or stupid, as to prevent its uptake as a popular belief".




Guys, David used to do ONE training seminar a year, now it seems he does a training seminar once every two or three years. I suggest you do some research on him before you discredit what he says.

Also, concerning Gann, and what his son said, it's common knowledge that Gann and his son didn't get on. His son expected Gann to give him everything without having to work for it, and Gann wouldn't do that. So I wouldn't believe too much of what his son says.

The editor of this magazine seems to agree with David Burton's predictions. Personally, I don't use astrology, but I do know a trader who uses it very successfully.


David’s first article for YTE in 1996 forecast the high in wheat 12  years in advance, more recently he has made timely predications with  regard to government, weather extremes and coffee.”

*Chelsea Reid, Editor in Chief, YourTradingEdge Magazine*​


----------



## tech/a (19 June 2012)

Dale Mc said:


> Guys, David used to do ONE training seminar a year, now it seems he does a training seminar once every two or three years. I suggest you do some research on him before you discredit what he says.
> 
> Also, concerning Gann, and what his son said, it's common knowledge that Gann and his son didn't get on. His son expected Gann to give him everything without having to work for it, and Gann wouldn't do that. So I wouldn't believe too much of what his son says.
> 
> ...




Burton was Challenged by Larry Williams a few years back.
Just for a cool Million.
Burton refused the challenge.
So lost all credibility in *my* mind.

There are that many "pressure points" coughed up by the "predictors"---
often one will hit.
The n number that dont are never mentioned.
While it looks impressive when one does come up
attempting to apply the analysis in a practical manner leaves the trader disillusioned
as the n number of points come and go.
which "N" do you put your money on?
Even Burton wouldnt put money on his analysis.


----------



## Gringotts Bank (19 June 2012)

Guys, remember the bottom line is this:  *is the trader making money... and how much?  *Technique is very much a secondary factor, IMO.  

If someone is picking stocks by reading tea leaves and is consistently making 50%pa over a long time frame, then that is far superior to a quant using advanced computer modelling and statistics making 10%pa.  

I happen to use two systems myself, but with the understanding that neither of them will work unless I have the right frame of mind.  Both systems have been developed over years of research, and I'm constantly looking for ways to tweak another 1-2% out of them, but that's more an intellectual exercise than anything else.  Mindset is everything.


----------



## sinner (19 June 2012)

http://www.markettiming.nl/img/image/file/RBS_MoonTrading13Jun10.pdf
http://marketsci.wordpress.com/2009/05/12/the-lunar-cycle-and-the-stock-market/

That is all.


----------



## tech/a (19 June 2012)

Gringotts Bank said:


> Guys, remember the bottom line is this:  *is the trader making money... and how much?  *Technique is very much a secondary factor, IMO.
> 
> If someone is picking stocks by reading tea leaves and is consistently making 50%pa over a long time frame, then that is far superior to a quant using advanced computer modelling and statistics making 10%pa.
> 
> I happen to use two systems myself, but with the understanding that neither of them will work unless I have the right frame of mind.  Both systems have been developed over years of research, and I'm constantly looking for ways to tweak another 1-2% out of them, but that's more an intellectual exercise than anything else.  Mindset is everything.




Oh my.


----------

