# CBR - Carbon Revolution



## So_Cynical (9 November 2019)

Carbon Revolution will list in late November 2019, i can't find a prospectus because the IPO managers had a very easy time finding clients to take the few shares available at the top end of the range $2.60, two listed LICs have holdings ACQ Acorn Capital have been in since 2015 and TEK Thorney Technology since the IPO, both stocks have had a recent rise with the upwards revaluation of CBR.

CBR make Carbon fibre wheels for expensive cars etc and they are the only company in the world doing it, they hold some technology patients, overall a very interesting company and a rare genuine success story with strong revenue growth and a growing high end market, Share price could jump quite a bit on the first few days of trade, perhaps one of those rare opportunity where its best to just buy at market early on day one.

https://www.carbonrev.com/


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## Miner (9 November 2019)

So_Cynical said:


> Carbon Revolution will list in late November 2019, i can't find a prospectus because the IPO managers had a very easy time finding clients to take the few shares available at the top end of the range $2.60, two listed LICs have holdings ACQ Acorn Capital have been in since 2015 and TEK Thorney Technology since the IPO, both stocks have had a recent rise with the upwards revaluation of CBR.
> 
> CBR make Carbon fibre wheels for expensive cars etc and they are the only company in the world doing it, they hold some technology patients, overall a very interesting company and a rare genuine success story with strong revenue growth and a growing high end market, Share price could jump quite a bit on the first few days of trade, perhaps one of those rare opportunity where its best to just buy at market early on day one.
> 
> https://www.carbonrev.com/



Time to buy Ferrari now


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## So_Cynical (11 December 2019)

New video released last week.
~

~
Serious cash burn going on but is supposed to be operationally profitable some time early 2021.


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## Dona Ferentes (14 January 2020)

CEO Jake Dingle said it was ''encouraging'' that Carbon Revolution was trading at a robust premium ...to the issue price of $2.60 (listed 29 Nov). And holding up well, now $4.05


> "People obviously understand the opportunity that's in front of us,'' Mr Dingle said. "From an operational point of view, the listing doesn't change anything. We're just getting on focusing on the day-to-day running of the business."



Mr Dingle declined to give a monthly rundown on production numbers of the carbon fibre wheels manufactured at a plant on a campus of Deakin University in suburban Geelong, but said the group was on target for annualised capacity of almost 32,000 wheels by June 2020. "We're currently on track for that,'' he said.

Carbon Revolution's high-performance wheels are about 40 per cent lighter than normal wheels and its $90 million float was undertaken to raise funds to substantially lift production capability. The group supplies wheels to carmakers including Ford, Ferrari and Renault...

Carbon Revolution pays an annual rent of $800,000. Deakin, which owns a 6.6 per cent stake in Carbon Revolution, is one of the biggest shareholders in the company. Deakin has been integral to the company's development through the university's materials science research and development arm.

Carbon Revolution is also developing carbon fibre wheels for aircraft that are 30 per cent ligher than the current forged aluminium wheels used in aviation. The latest leasehold deal for the factory was signed in 2018 and stretches for 10 years. There is a right to renew for a further two five-year terms beyond that.

About 85 per cent of Deakin University's 6.6 per cent stake is under voluntary escrow until December 1, 2020. Deakin University chief financial officer Kerrie Parker said there was a long-standing relationship between the two, but she bypassed questions about the specific intentions for the stake beyond the escrow period. Ms Parker said: "Carbon Revolution has been, and continues to be, a great partner to Deakin, as we have been to Carbon Revolution. "We have a long history and ongoing commitment with them, and we’re excited about the successful IPO and the long-term prospects for this Geelong success story.''

The Victorian government has a 4.3 per cent stake in Carbon Revolution following the conversion of convertible notes. That holding is under a mandatory escrow period ending in the second half of 2020.

https://www.afr.com/companies/trans...s-to-be-like-csl-and-cochlear-20191203-p53g9d

I notice Mirrabooka (MIR) has a stake - probably bought in at the IPO


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## Dona Ferentes (17 March 2020)

Tuesday, potential bidders into the Carbon Revolution equity raising have been told the offer had been repriced down to $1.50 a share, to raise a minimum of $25 million. The company initially set out to raise $30 million at $2.10 a share.


> The repricing was blamed on "continued market developments", the company said.
> 
> Despite this, funds were told that there had been strong support from existing, institutional shareholders




_- bit of a bellwether in the current climate_


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## So_Cynical (17 March 2020)

Hell of a time to raise money, all the other cap raisings have been pulled, was a feature of the GFC though.


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## So_Cynical (2 May 2020)

SPP at 1.50 was a little successful with 91.75% of shareholders passing on the offer, the SP has mostly traded above the issue 
price but has occasionally slipped under, they will probably have to raise money again later in the year or early next year.
~


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## Dona Ferentes (2 May 2020)

any other country would see a government 'picking winners'. Vic govt has a bit with the Con Note conversion, but otherwise the timing is out of their control, with the bug. 

I'd rather see assistance here than to some puffed up airline


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## Dona Ferentes (8 July 2020)

CBR hasn't really pulled back up from the Covid slump; sitting around $2. Management withdrew guidance earlier, and today updates further.:

_Carbon Revolution now believes that demand for its wheels in Q1 FY21 will be affected by ongoing factors related to COVID-19.  This will result in Carbon Revolution’s sales growth being affected during the first half of FY21.  Notwithstanding this, the Company expects to deliver sales growth in FY21 and is confident that this temporary change has no effect on the medium to long-term demand for its wheels or on its growth prospects. _

_In response to this the Company is implementing a series of operational changes. These include reductions in the workforce engaged in production activities and the restructuring of shifts to optimise the business for these short term changes in throughput_.


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## peter2 (7 September 2020)

Here I was thinking I'm the only one keeping an eye on CBR. 

Yes, price took another tumble when CBR withdrew guidance in early July 2020. However they did say that they expected growth to continue reasonably soon. That was before the stricter Victoria lock downs. This company is in Geelong near a virus hot spot at the time. 





No reaction in price after the news and it's gradually making it's way back to $2.


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## aus_trader (7 September 2020)

Did I read that correctly, $2643 per wheel ?
I'd like to offer $10,000 for a set of 4 for my bulky SUV thanks . I'll finally have a chance to keep up with (err.. no drag racing here ) those smaller zippy sport cars at the traffic lights .


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## So_Cynical (7 September 2020)

aus_trader said:


> Did I read that correctly, $2643 per wheel ?



Early days yet, the reduction in weight is massive compared to steel, something like a 10% reduction in fuel running costs can be achieved.
60 years ago all car wheels were steel and now maybe 20% are alloy of some kind, at some point in the far future all wheels will be carbon.


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## Dona Ferentes (28 September 2020)

Carbon Revolution is eyeing rising demand from the electric  vehicle market, with six former Tesla workers beavering away at its Geelong plant as it pushes to expand into a sector which is accelerating in the pandemic.

The  whisper quiet engines of electric vehicles meant electric vehicle manufacturers were seeking out ways of reducing the amount of noise from all aspects of the vehicle. Carbon Revolution is working on a range of dampeners to further lessen noise from wheels.

Carbon Revolution chief executive Jake Dingle  said electric car companies were pushing hard to find ways of lowering  the weight of vehicles and reducing in-car road noise for drivers and  lightweight wheels are a part of the solution. 







> _The  EV makers are looking for range extension and better aerodynamics are  important as well. It is ticking every box_, Mr Dingle said.



Carbon Revolution  chairman James Douglas said it was difficult for any company to  navigate through the pandemic because of the sheer uncertainty, but  raising capital early in the pandemic had set the company on a steadier  course.

Mr   Dingle said customers overseas were returning to more normal production schedules and although the pandemic had caused disruptions in the early  months in Europe, momentum was starting to build again. 







> _It is coming back to normal. Everyone sees this as temporary,_ Mr Dingle said.












						Former Tesla boffins fuel Carbon Revolution push into EVs
					

Electric vehicle manufacturers want lighter and quieter wheels and it's a market the Geelong manufacturer is chasing.




					www.afr.com


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## peter2 (25 November 2020)

The price of *CBR* has gone significantly higher since my last post highlighted the BO > 1.80. 
Price is now close to breaking through the 3.00 level. It's been there before and has been sold off each time. Supply must run out soon or be pulled from the market. Speaking of supply, It's been 1 year since listing and approx 24 Million shares will come out of escrow at the end of Nov (soon). I don't know what will happen (to price) when this supply is officially available.


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## Dona Ferentes (23 April 2021)

Carbon Revolution is raising $95 million in two components: a 1 for 4.38 rights issue to raise $53.5 million,  and a $41.6 million institutional placement, all priced at $1.60 per  share.

Last trade was at $2.35 so this is a steep discount. The capital is for a new production mega-line, which will take about 18 months to build and be  in production from 2023, would help reduce labour hours per wheel from  17 hours to 10 hours. The Geelong manufacturing plant will increase production capacity by 75,000 wheels annually to 155,000 wheels.                                                

_The carbon fibre wheels are 40 to 50 per cent lighter than traditional aluminium wheels. They are increasingly sought after by automotive manufacturers for EVs as well as for larger wheel sizes of 23 to 26 inches for large SUVs and pick-up trucks. The EV market has been described as very prone to 'range anxiety' and any weight reduction is welcome. Also, noise reduction is a feature. _


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## peter2 (23 April 2021)

As a current shareholder looks like I've some reading and calculation to do over the week-end regarding this cap raise. The discount is attractive but the size of the raising will reduce the share price. Back of envelope calculation comes to 2.10 not including the sentiment of the existing shareholders. If sentiment is good the price will hold near my level, if it isn't it will go below 2.00. 

As a trader I'm going to lose some value in my current position and I should cop the loss (due to dilution) and sell on re-open of trading. 

However, as a wannabe investor I'll read the prospectus and investor presentation. My initial thoughts are that this expansion is a huge transition for *CBR*. The potential for light weight wheels for EVs and other vehicles is huge. *CBR* might possibly be a pioneer company in this field. If I think that *CBR* is worth holding for longer I'd have to participate in the spp, hold the position and see what happens in the future. 

Do I feel lucky?


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## So_Cynical (23 April 2021)

Dona Ferentes said:


> Carbon Revolution is raising $95 million in two components: a 1 for 4.38 rights issue to raise $53.5 million,  and a $41.6 million institutional placement, all priced at $1.60 per  share.
> 
> Last trade was at $2.35 so this is a steep discount.




Would appear to be easy money for holders, do like a deeply discounted rights issue.


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## peter2 (3 May 2021)

Since *CBR* recommenced trading the price has been sold down to approx $1.70.  Only 0.10 above the SPP price. 

My speculative reversal trade has been caught in this capital raising. I hate deeply discounted SPPs. Now I wait to see if the SPP price can provide some support. There's little point participating in the barely discounted raising as it's 1 for each 4.38. 

I may be able to buy them in the market for less than the SPP soon. I'll consider adding (averaging down) when there's another reversal buying setup. It may take more than 3 months to form. 

*CBR* is one of the few companies that were trading at new highs pre-Covid but haven't made it back near those highs in the year since.


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## So_Cynical (4 May 2021)

So_Cynical said:


> Would appear to be easy money for holders, do like a deeply discounted rights issue.




Trading at 1.64 ~ of course sometimes these deep discounts exacerbate share price 
weakness that can lead to further weakness and the partial failure of the cap raising.


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## Dona Ferentes (4 May 2021)

So_Cynical said:


> Trading at 1.64 ~ of course sometimes these deep discounts exacerbate share price
> weakness that can lead to further weakness and the partial failure of the cap raising.



First they shop the offer to institutions, and if the interest level is low and a deep discount is all they'll pay, then that's what the entitlement price is. 

I guess it's what they're doing with the money to grow the biz, down the track, that counts. But, short term, yes there's pain.


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## peter2 (26 May 2021)

We all get stuck in unfavourable situations when dealing with the markets. My latest is *CBR* and I was caught by the heavily discounted cap raise that thumped the share price. OK fine it happens how do I deal with it. The SPP price was 1.60 and I thought that this would provide a solid support level and held. That idea was correct and price held the 1.60 level and started to rally once the cap raise was completed. Things were looking up. Phew. Until . . . bad news.

The world wide shortage of semiconductor chips has forced some car manufacturers to pause production. A pause of this major activity has ramifications to all manufacturers of car parts, including wheels. 

One car manufacturer has cancelled it's order with *CBR* for 1800 wheels. It may not seem to be many, but it's the canary in the coal mine, an early warning of further cuts. 

I have no doubt that we will see many more instances of disruptions caused by the Gov't responses to the Covid pandemic. 

Just as the economies are starting to open up, it's easy to be optimistic that the worst has past. I expect to see more disappointments in the months ahead.  

_eg_. Lack of migration due to border closures is starting to cause labour shortages in many industries. 

*CBR* has got the money from the cap raise to build it's new assembly line. I expect this will take some time (year?).  While *CBR* is building this new line, how is the share price going to hold up? If there's further sales cuts?  How does a long term investor hang on while the share prices are falling? How low can prices fall before they represent value to an investor when future sales and especially the timing of these sales orders are unknowable? 

I'll be monitoring *CBR* for a reversal setup but it may take a long time.


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## So_Cynical (26 May 2021)

peter2 said:


> We all get stuck in unfavourable situations when dealing with the markets. My latest is *CBR* and I was caught by the heavily discounted cap raise that thumped the share price. OK fine it happens how do I deal with it. The SPP price was 1.60 and I thought that this would provide a solid support level and held. That idea was correct and price held the 1.60 level and started to rally once the cap raise was completed. Things were looking up. Phew. Until . . . bad news.




I tried to capitalise on the SSP weakness thus had a low ball buy order at 1.52 ~ up the creek now, as always time will tell. The turn around may take years.


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## aus_trader (28 May 2021)

Sell offs can be brutal especially when they come with huge gap downs. My latest bungle is with CGC price crash, which could not be predicted in any way, and I think the results were OK so I don't really get such brutal market punishment  on the stock


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## peter2 (2 June 2021)

Re-started a spec position in *CBR*. I noticed that there's many more bids than asks in the MD. My initial target is 1.60 - 1.70 zone where price traded during the recent SPP (@1.60).


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## peter2 (25 August 2021)

I'm having another go at *CBR* with this reversal opp.  Spec position started today after reading through latest report. 

*CBR* has started production of two product lines for Ferrari. Company reports losses for the year as costs remain high. Covid restrictions are limiting business opportunities. Installation of M1 production line is on track but they do need to create more sales.


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## peter2 (15 November 2021)

Having another go at *CBR*. Bought a little late after seeing some early bullish signs of a reversal. I've marked my T1 and T2 target levels but when you look at them on the weekly chart you see that there's potential for price to go a lot higher. The prior SPP was at 1.60. If price gets back there that should remove some supply. If it fills the gap above 2.00, that ensures a good result.


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## So_Cynical (28 January 2022)

Up 19% today on the release of a very upbeat quarterly, wheel sales up 109% and GM signed up as a new customer, quarterly revenue up 82% all this after a tough couple of years and an all time low share price, still a long way to go.

AFR write up








						Electric car demand drives Australian wheel company to new highs
					

Carbon Revolution said it had more than doubled sales in the first quarter of the 2022 financial year, while quarterly revenues jumped  82.6 per cent




					www.afr.com


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## peter2 (27 September 2022)

I was attracted to narrative for *CBR*. What's not to like about lightweight carbon fibre wheels! 

However growing the business has been a struggle during the Covid pandemic. CBR are building new wheel processing lines and have attracted manufacturing contracts for many high end car companies. The latest is Ford, who announced that *CBR* carbon fibre wheels are an option for it's 2024 Mustang "Dark Horse".  

Meanwhile the price continues lower. $4 to 0.20 is some fall. No signs of a reversal yet.


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## So_Cynical (28 September 2022)

20c is like end of the world level, the market over doing it again.


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## frugal.rock (28 September 2022)

Being a car buff (ICE only) I have always liked this company, but...never held.

They might need to reinvent the wheel? 😘
Support is building, but isn't clearly "in" yet.
At these levels, it's a cheap takeover?...🧐


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## qldfrog (28 September 2022)

frugal.rock said:


> Being a car buff (ICE only) I have always liked this company, but...never held.
> 
> They might need to reinvent the wheel? 😘
> Support is building, but isn't clearly "in" yet.
> At these levels, it's a cheap takeover?...🧐



I like Australian and leading edge tech, but wonder if they are not losing the edge.seems they are still a bit ahead but now they are labelled one of the few carbon rim makers vs 2017 when the were alone.
I quickly got this too:




Not exactly the same as spoke are carbon and rim may remain aluminium..but basically look and weight is similar and cost 60 times lower at least..
I am afraid they are niched to limited ultra luxury car market .
Hum...not for my investor portfolio


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## frugal.rock (5 October 2022)

Good to see (for holders) it's found that support level.
Nice.


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## So_Cynical (26 October 2022)

Picked in the monthly comp - SP has found support all be it at a very low level, sales are building, revenue is stead and cash burn trending down.


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## frugal.rock (31 October 2022)

So_Cynical said:


> Picked in the monthly comp - SP has found support all be it at a very low level, sales are building, revenue is stead and cash burn trending down.



Mate, timing is everything for the comp.
Not sure if you have that right... 🧐🤪

Hopefully though, you are holding?
(or sold out shortly after open...)
The wheels are really turning today. Smokin' it up!


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## lenesha (3 November 2022)

So now it is in Suspension from Quotation, could someone explain why this is happening? Sorry I'm quite new to the share market, thanks!


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## greggles (3 November 2022)

lenesha said:


> So now it is in Suspension from Quotation, could someone explain why this is happening? Sorry I'm quite new to the share market, thanks!




This is what the announcement says:



> At the request of ASX, Carbon Revolution Limited (ASX:CBR) (Carbon Revolution) requests that its securities be placed in voluntary suspension immediately pursuant to ASX Listing Rule 17.2.
> 
> The voluntary suspension is requested pending the release of a supplementary announcement by Carbon Revolution in response to ASX queries in connection with the ‘Quarterly Activities/Appendix 4C Cash Flow Report’ released on the ASX market announcements platform on 31 October 2022 (Supplementary Announcement). Capitalised terms not otherwise defined in this request have the meaning given to them in the Appendix 4C.
> 
> ...




Sounds complicated. Looks like there is something going on in relation to a proposed transaction that requires ASX approval. It seems as though they may be suspended from trading for most of this month. Not sure if this is good or bad for the company.


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## peter2 (3 November 2022)

*CBR*'s proposed transaction is a binding bid to merge into a Nasdaq SPAC. This would see *CBR* leaving the ASX. Not yet a done deal though. *CBR* may also need more bridging capitol before any merge. Looks messy and looks like another promising Aussie tech company going overseas. 

US capital is taking advantage of the slump in tech company valuations and the lower AUD to bag a few bargains.


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## peter2 (14 November 2022)

Interesting.


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## Ferret (30 November 2022)

Came out of its trading halt and dropped to an all time low.  Market obviously doesn't think the merger will complete.

It all looks very complicated to me.  One to watch from the sidelines.


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## So_Cynical (30 November 2022)

Another factor is that most/some people dont want to hold a non ASX stock, im ok with a Nasdaq listing.


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