# CTD - Corporate Travel Management



## System (8 January 2011)

Corporate Travel Management is an award-winning provider of innovative and cost effective travel management solutions to the corporate market.

Corporate Travel Management employs more than 300 staff and has established a national footprint in Australia with offices in Brisbane, Sydney, Melbourne, Perth and the Gold Coast and recently established its first international office in Auckland, New Zealand.

http://www.travelctm.com


----------



## VSntchr (15 February 2011)

Having a thorough look over the prospectus to get a decent understanding of this business.
At first glance it seems not too bad.
Was impacted quite heavily in the GFC but seems to be operating healthily now.
It does have some big competitors to contend with however...

Anyone have experience with CTD?


----------



## ENP (28 June 2012)

Been looking into this company for a wee while now. 

Anyone got any thoughts? It has had phenominal growth over the past decade (although only listed a couple of years ago).

It's got all the good things we look for, growth, high ROE, not too much debts, etc.


----------



## aroe (28 June 2012)

I've been on the receiving end of CTM's service, and off that alone, I'd never invest with this train-wreck of an organisation. This was in late 2010, early 2011.

Your mileage may vary, though. I'm just a stranger on the internet.

Edit: I know the company I was with at the time ditched them, as did one of the companies I dealt with at the time. Maybe we just shared a ****ty AM.


----------



## Out Too Soon (16 October 2012)

Another healthy uptrend chart (wish I'd bought in July) Is the sharemarket in general finally over the doldrums?


----------



## VSntchr (26 February 2014)

Am I missing something or is this grossly over-priced?

I think its worth about half of what its at currently unless it somehow manages to grow at rates far above what has produced today. 
I cant see margins expanding much higher than what they are, I mean they are currently higher than what FLT is achieving....and this half was actually down on PCP (18.6% v 19.2%) for operating margins....hmmm

Doesn't look like the business is in bad shape, I just can't believe the price tag!


----------



## Ves (27 February 2014)

VSntchr said:


> Am I missing something or is this grossly over-priced?



Without commenting on competitive advantage,  because I haven't really studying it in any depth, I'll comment that the US and Asians markets are  massive.    This business is very capital light,   in fact,  it barely requires any capital to grow.   If they can build a franchise and increase scale this will look cheap.

All "if's"  of course,  and I won't pretend to know the answers to the questions,  but that's your starting point.

Forecast TTV for 2014 is $1,300m.     They generally convert this into revenue at about 8.7-8.8% judging by the last two halves (it was actually closer to 9-10% in the 2012 and 2013 full years).  Full year revenue based on this forecast will be about $113-114m.   Based on margins of 18% to 19% that is EBIT of $20.3m to $21.7m.   Remember some of their acquisitions are still being bedded down,  and the Westminster one will only count towards 5 months in 2014.  EBIT from this business was projected to be $7.02m on purchase price.   So  there's about another $4.1m that won't appear full year.     So factoring this in full year EBIT is closer to $24.4m to $25.8m.

So it's trading on an EV/EBIT of about 19-20.    Which is not at all grossly over priced if they achieve their 5 year plan IMO.


----------



## piggybank (15 October 2014)

Whilst Flight Centre (FLT) price has been going south, CTD as been going north. Today's action saw CTD hit a new ATH (*A*ll *T*ime *H*igh) of $8.23 before falling and closing at $8.10 (up 3%). As a result of it being a market darling (and not here at ASF) its dividend yield is now down to 1.9% as well as the P/E getting very expensive at 34X - as the numbers show below:-







The link below is of the presentation given at the Morgans Conference by Jamie Pherous the company's Managing Director.

http://www.stocknessmonster.com/news-item?S=CTD&E=ASX&N=821958


----------



## Nortorious (15 October 2014)

From a technical viewpoint it doesn't look too bad...

It is above the 30 week weighted moving average, rsi is strong, volume looks ok and no resistance above.

With the broader market fairly weak though I couldn't make a call on it from an experienced point of view. Perhaps some of the regulars have a view?


----------



## Nortorious (23 October 2014)

CTD seems to be going well over the last few days. I got an entry as it broke above the $8.23 mark a couple of days ago. I didn't expect it to climb as quickly as it did but certainly won't complain. Whilst the daily closes haven't been great, trading off the weekly chart says hold on for the continued ride.

Stop loss was fairly loose on this one so need to tighten as soon as it indicates that it can be shifted from the initial stop loss point.


----------



## Nortorious (17 November 2014)

CTD continues to proceed North breaking through the human mind barrier of $10.00 today and then settling and closing just below.

Weekly chart shows no signs of stopping at this stage:




The daily chart shows me evidence that this will continue to move higher given the great volume on not only the second last bar (the day before moving out of the range that formed) but also on the continuation breakout bar of today.




Everything still looking positive but things can change in an instant. SL still active and continues to be adjusted upwards.

Let's see where this continues to go and see when the chart says "folks, now it is expensive, time to get out"...


----------



## Nortorious (24 November 2014)

Hitting new highs again today. $10.28 thank you very much.....

Hopefully will keep heading north.. $11 out of the question? I guess we'll wait and see.......


----------



## Nortorious (12 December 2014)

Sold out of this a day or so ago at $9.75 as I didn't like where I thought the overall market was and is headed. Managed just over 18% profit from a trade that I took early November so not too bad a result given the market was heading sideways and now looks to be pointing downwards...


----------



## kid hustlr (19 August 2018)

Not much activity int his thread given the performance of this company!

$30 is a big a number however the trend is strong and the chart has performed well on the daily.

Reports Wednesday 22/8


----------



## bigdog (29 October 2018)

*29/10/2018 9:00:47 AM  Trading Halt as a result of RESEARCH REPORT - see below

VERY SERIOUS COMMENTS REPORTED AND RECOMMEND READING THE AGE REPORT

"Hedge fund VGI Partners has publicly accused the $3 billion travel specialist Corporate Travel Management of aggressive accounting, poor disclosure and running “phantom” offices in Europe and America."





*





There was an article in Sundays Age Oct 28
https://www.theage.com.au/business/...arget-local-travel-group-20181028-p50cip.html

*'Troubling picture': Hedge funds target local travel group*
*By Simon Johanson & Kylar Loussikian*
28 October 2018 — 6:47pm

Hedge fund VGI Partners has publicly accused the $3 billion travel specialist Corporate Travel Management of aggressive accounting, poor disclosure and running “phantom” offices in Europe and America.

VGI Partners, which has a solid reputation for picking market winners and losers including Slater & Gordon in 2015, has taken a short position over the travel provider after it identified 20 “red flags” in a scathing 176 page presentation distributed to its clients.

They include declining cash flows at odds with claims of strong organic growth, overstating its global office footprint, management share sales and poor disclosure of the impact of revised revenue figures.

The Brisbane based travel agency has expanded internationally since going public and provides travel advice, booking, ticketing, recommendations and travel data management to businesses and government clients.

“Some of the red flags, viewed in isolation, may be of no concern and others may be individually explainable. However, we believe in aggregate they paint a troubling picture,” the hedge fund said.

In a note to investors, VGI said it visited the firm’s web-listed offices in Glasgow, Paris, Amsterdam, Stockholm and Switzerland and found no sign of activity in the buildings they supposedly operated out of.

Other offices in the United States were either ghost offices or staffed with a skeleton crew. The US makes up one third of Corporate Travel's reported revenues.

In Corporate Travel’s Washington D.C. office an employee “appeared to be caught off guard by a visitor,” VGI said.

“We asked about corporate travel services but the employee said she only handles leisure travel and ‘we don’t even have business cards or any of that stuff,’” they said.

A significant number of offices on the travel agency’s website appear either to not exist or are unused. Around one-quarter of offices listed on the US website are sub-scale or unused, it says.

The business travel specialist claims to have 2750 staff around the world and has a one year share price return of 16 per cent.

VGI Partners also questioned how Corporate Travel could be twice as profitable as other similar travel agencies when its clients were government or businesses who are generally more sophisticated buyers of services.

"Our analysis is at odds with the rich valuation that the market currently places on Corporate Travel," the hedge fund said.

VGI’s short position over 2 million of Corporate Travel’s shares means it has a vested interest in the company’s share price declining over time.

Corporate Travel Management said it was made aware of VGI Partners report around 3pm Sunday afternoon. It took the “claims seriously and we look forward to providing a detailed response as quickly as possible,” it said.

Taking into account its reported transactions, Corporate Travel is the eleventh largest travel booking business and seventh largest corporate travel specialist in the world.

Shareholders who invested in Corporate Travel’s initial public listing at $1 a share eight years ago would have enjoyed returns in excess of 3500 per cent as the company grew organically and through acquisitions.

Sydney and New York-based VGI has in recent years gained a reputation as a shrewd short seller of Australian and international stocks.

5910


----------



## mountie (29 October 2018)

Lol, as if skeleton crew offices are somehow indicative of a company's success. Perhaps CTD is successful _because_ they don't have huge staff costs in every location...

Anyhow, VGI could still be correct but I would be interested in how they come to the conclusion that cash flows are declining; I don't recall picking that up in any updates.


----------



## JTLP (30 October 2018)

Has anyone got access to VGIs 176 page presentation? I tried to find it but no luck. Apparently it’s quite amusing.


----------



## bigdog (31 October 2018)

https://www.theage.com.au/business/...most-halve-credit-suisse-20181030-p50cwq.html

*Corporate Travel Management shares could almost halve: Credit Suisse*

Corporate Travel Management, hit by claims it misled investors about the state of its business, could lose almost half its value, according to Credit Suisse's hedge fund sales desk.

The $3 billion corporate travel booking company asked for the Australian Securities Exchange to halt trading of its shares on Monday morning ahead of an annual general meeting today after a leaked presentation from hedge fund VGI Partners claimed major problems with its accounts.

Corporate Travel Management, headed by Jamie Pherous, has declined to comment on the allegations, which include claims it inflated the number of offices it operates from, to date.

But Credit Suisse hedge fund trader Sujit Dey, in a note to clients yesterday morning, said the VGI analysis could "turn out to be the major catalyst needed" to end the company's growth.

"I think the most important parts that caught my eye were the low cash balances and interest revenue compared to peers and change in revenue recognition policy which involved going back to a methodology which the company moved away from in 2014," Mr Dey wrote.

The 176-page VGI analysis raised questions about why the company had this year changed the way it accounted for commissions from when they were paid to when the travel booking was first made.

Corporate Travel Management had moved away from that system in 2014 after finding it was “it was not probable that revenue would flow to (the company) until the point of receipt”.

VGI also alleged had "a significant number of offices on its website which either do not exist or are unused" in Europe and North America.

Mr Dey said those allegations, and claims the company had no patented technology, would impact the credibility of management.

"The market will now likely take a view that if the company can exaggerate little things like these, what else is it doing when it comes to the accounts," he wrote.

Uncertainty is not a good thing for stocks that trade on high PEs. It still amazes me that (the company) is (valued at 29 times its earnings) for a travel agency with no real competitive advantage.

"I can see it de-rating towards a (15 times it earnings) multiple, which would be a share price of ~$15.50 per share – 44 per cent decline.

"I don’t think this will happen immediately but over the short term, the stock is likely to be highly volatile as the bulls and bears get their bearings right."

Another investment firm, Morgans, late on Sunday said it disagreed with a number of the issues raised by VGI, "however more work needs to be done".

VGI has previously pursued law firm Slater & Gordon over similar issues with its accounts.


----------



## mountie (31 October 2018)

Lol, 15 times earnings considering the year on year growth that CTD typically posts? Tell 'em they're dreaming.

The Empire Strikes Back:

https://www.asx.com.au/asxpdf/20181031/pdf/43ztnb8v1xxbcp.pdf


----------



## bigdog (31 October 2018)

Trading now 

high of $24.75 and low of $20.00 during trade

Now currently at high $24.75 at 10:23 am


----------



## mountie (31 October 2018)

I'd say damage control seems to have worked...could have been worse.


----------



## bigdog (31 October 2018)

A sad day for CTD with SP close just above the year low of $19.43

It will be interesting reading the outcome of the meeting with VGI partners who must be well in front!


----------



## notting (31 October 2018)

This is no Blue Sky.
It's back to a pretty reasonable level and hasn't scarred too many hedge fund investors out of it on this beat up report. It hasn't suffered like many other fund things in the royal commission so a bad day may be the worst of it.
Business as usual.


----------



## notting (4 November 2018)

https://www.afr.com/business/behind-corporate-travels-multiyear-shortseller-war-20181101-h17ddu


----------



## Ann (4 November 2018)

notting said:


> https://www.afr.com/business/behind-corporate-travels-multiyear-shortseller-war-20181101-h17ddu




Darn, I don't have a sub to the AFR so I can't read beyond a few lines. Anyone want to precis this?


----------



## notting (4 November 2018)

It goes something like this - 


> If there was a moment short sellers declared war against Jamie Pherous and Corporate Travel Management it was the morning of July 6, 2016. That was when Sujit Dey, an influential sales trader at Credit Suisse, sent a note to his hedge fund clients titled "SELL CTD – Organic Revenue Profile Doesn't Justify High Multiple".
> 
> Dey walked through why he believed the "small cap darling", which traded at 25 times forecast earnings, would come crashing down to earth. Corporate Travel had, Dey conceded, made its shareholders richer than they could have ever expected since its December 2010 when it listed with an initial market value of $70 million.
> 
> ...


----------



## Ann (4 November 2018)

notting said:


> It goes something like this -




Thank you Notting that was fascinating. I love this sort of stuff!


----------



## JTLP (5 November 2018)

Ann said:


> Darn, I don't have a sub to the AFR so I can't read beyond a few lines. Anyone want to precis this?




For future - copy headline and search via Google. You can then open up the articles that list (yes, AFR ones!).


----------



## Ann (5 November 2018)

JTLP said:


> For future - copy headline and search via Google. You can then open up the articles that list (yes, AFR ones!).




Awesome! Thanks JTLP.


----------



## JTLP (6 November 2018)

Trading Halt again. More VGI attacks it would appear. Tough times for holders at present.


----------



## peter2 (9 November 2018)

This current skirmish with the "evil" short sellers is indeed fascinating to watch. I've drawn a line at $20 on my chart and if price goes below this VGI will win. Today price opened high and went higher.


----------



## rnr (7 May 2019)

Not the perfect a-b-c correction but close and with the lows of the last 2 bars finding some support, maybe, just maybe there might be a bounce from these lows. To make the odds even higher there is a gap above ranging from a high of $26.00 to a $25.82 low.
This is not a recommendation, just an observation that caught my eye.


----------



## Trav. (9 September 2019)

I am currently into regression channels and CTD has come up in my scan the other day.

Entered today @ $18.26 and watching retrace to ~ $21


----------



## barney (11 September 2019)

Trav. said:


> I am currently into regression channels and CTD has come up in my scan the other day. Entered today @ $18.26 and watching retrace to ~ $21




Looking a lot better today than yesterday ….  I found a picture of you on the net Trav(JK)  Good luck with the trade


----------



## Trav. (24 May 2020)

Looking at my scan and it says buy CTD ????? what that cant be right.... chart looks fine but surely not a good time to be buying anything related with travel?

I had a look at the latest announcement and market update and they appear to be financial sound and ready for the border restrictions to come down (like the rest of the country).

Interesting to watch to see how it recovers


----------



## peter2 (24 May 2020)

CTD might be a good barometer of domestic (ANZ and US/UK) recoveries. Worth monitoring.


----------



## Trav. (27 May 2020)

Thought that I should throw up a chart of CTD as this stock and others in the sector seem to be gathering some traction

Scan picked up counter trend and BO being tested, looking positive


----------



## Dona Ferentes (30 September 2020)

still hanging on.  CTD had an attack of the short sellers late 2018, attendant queries and doubts, then 2020 brought Covid .

And now, an acquisition of USA based Travel & Transport for $282million. Corporate Travel Management will be the biggest mid-market travel agent in the world following its acquisition of Omaha, Nebraska-based Travel & Transport, in what founder Jamie Pherous described as a _*bold grab for scale with a post-COVID future in mind. *_

With the institutional component of its entitlement offer at $13.85 a share raising $262 million (approx 90% take up) and fully underwritten retail part aiming for $113 million ..... shareholders already in the money as it opened 12% higher today

The reasons:
_• Build Scale: Once combined, CTM will strengthen its position as one of the leading mid-market corporate travel managers in the world with A$10.8bn TTV and North American TTV of US$3.6b (A$5.2b) (based on pro-forma CY19); _
_• Sector and Geographic Focus: Travel & Transport has a highly complementary industry and geographic profile, with a strong focus on financial and professional services clients, and a particularly strong client base in New York. The combination enhances the opportunity to service international clients, particularly the high-volume New York / London route; 
• Global Hotel Program: Travel & Transport’s hotel program, Radius, is one of the leading programs of its kind globally, expected to provide an enhanced offering to CTM clients; 
• Scope for Material Combination Benefits: Estimated full run-rate synergies of US$18m15 (A$25m) expected to be delivered within 2 years of completion (with significant work to be undertaken in the next 6 months to take advantage of slower client activity currently experienced in corporate travel); 
• Strengthened US Leadership: Travel & Transport’s high-quality management team to augment CTM’s US management capability, with Travel & Transport’s incumbent CEO, Kevin O’Malley to lead the combined US business; and _
_• Strong cultural alignment: Focus on customer service and leveraging proprietary technology_.


----------



## galumay (30 September 2020)

The questions remain around CTD's accounting, I wouldn't touch it with a barge pole!


----------



## bigdog (4 January 2021)

I think that business travel, in particular, will probably be the first to rebound and is a central part of the business. And I think as soon as people feel safe enough to start flying again, that pent up demand that they've had for the last year, basically, will come through in business travel.


----------



## Dona Ferentes (1 April 2022)

bigdog said:


> I think that business travel, in particular, will probably be the first to rebound and is a central part of the business. And I think as soon as people feel safe enough to start flying again, that pent up demand that they've had for the last year, basically, will come through in business travel.



pent up demand??

On the SP only, it would seem CTD is a survivor, and trading higher than when Covid emerged, now more than 2 years ago.  I haven't had a look under the bonnet or in the cockpit, but there is some interest in the outfit.

.... and , now the ACCC has not opposed the deal, "_Corporate Travel Management (CTM) completed its $175 million acquisition of Helloworld Corporate announced late last year. The takeover was funded by a fully underwritten equity raising, comprising a $25 million institutional placement and a $75 million share purchase plan, the issuance of 3,571,429 new CTM shares to Helloworld._


----------



## Dona Ferentes (3 May 2022)

_Corporate Travel Management has told the Macquarie Conference it expects June quarter revenue to exceed comparable revenue posted in calendar year 2019.
It did not provide any guidance on its expected full-year loss for FY 2022. It said it had no debt and a sufficient cash runway to support its recovery._

*CTM a much larger business due to COVID acquisitions* 
• Expect EBITDA of $265m on full recovery, +76% versus pre-COVID 
• 4Q22 monthly revenue to exceed CTM CY19 revenue. HLO Corp additional

*CTM will reach 100% recovery faster than the corporate travel industry *
• Strong market share gains. Value prop of service, tech, ROI highly relevant 
• Little to no recovery impediments exist in NA, EU, ANZ

*Asia - COVID restrictions delaying recovery in HKG/China* 
• Asia is c80% Greater China. Asia profit contribution <10% on full recovery 
• Singapore- rapid recovery as impediments removed: last week, 70% recovery

*FY22 earnings*: 
• Still expecting c2/3 EBITDA skew in 2H22. Omicron and resulting global lockdowns impacted 3Q22 recovery 
• Strong 4Q22 will more than off-set 3Q22 Omicron impact and provide strong momentum for FY23 EBITDA


----------

