# Will the XAO decline for 13 consecutive sessions?



## dhukka (22 January 2008)

It may seem like a simple answer after today's meltdown, however a lot depends on what happens in the overnight session. The US is poised for a big drop but what will helicopter Ben do? We will hear more details about the US government's fiscal stimulus package although that is unlikely to have much effect. Although the Fed is usually in blackout mode this close to an FOMC meeting, given the circumstances, could they possibly come to the rescue with an emergency rate cut? If so, will it even matter? Will the Aussie market make it lucky number 13 tomorrow? Cast your vote!


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## trillionaire#1 (22 January 2008)

I now suspect we will have one more day of silliness before stagnating for a time.


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## blind freddie (22 January 2008)

Bunch of absolute optimists aren't we?


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## MS+Tradesim (22 January 2008)

4800 here we come. Maybe. Possibly. I called it as an interim bottom. Let's see how messy my fingers get.


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## vishalt (22 January 2008)

It's going to be crazy. 

On the one hand it could crash 500-1000 points but if Helicopter Ben comes out and smacks in an emergency cut the Dow could reverse or pare losses.


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## ROE (22 January 2008)

blind freddie said:


> Bunch of absolute optimists aren't we?




I like to say 
I buy on Fear and Sell on Greed  so the lower it go the more Fear factors going my way


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## skating101 (22 January 2008)

hed better not or ill kick his $%#$#% ass im betting alot on the dow plummeting


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## Nyden (22 January 2008)

skating101 said:


> hed better not or ill kick his $%#$#% ass im betting alot on the dow plummeting




The problem there is revealed in your own wording; you're _betting_ a lot. Shorts are nothing more than bets. Bets can, & will lose you know.

I believe it will be down, but I wouldn't bet my shirt on it.


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## Yezzy (22 January 2008)

If the Fed cuts early or larger than 0.5% they're admitting the proverbial has hit the fan, sure it did long ago but politicians and their ilk must keep up appearances so to speak and try to calm the masses. We get a relief rally for a while and then some bank posts another ridiculous write down, people realise nothing has changed and the downward descent begins a fresh.

Edit: to clarify, yes it will finish down.


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## agro (22 January 2008)

i voted no 

but i am living in hope


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## skating101 (22 January 2008)

Nyden said:


> The problem there is revealed in your own wording; you're _betting_ a lot. Shorts are nothing more than bets. Bets can, & will lose you know.
> 
> I believe it will be down, but I wouldn't bet my shirt on it.




lol fair enough i think you probably are right but still it must be a pretty nice shirt


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## Nyden (22 January 2008)

skating101 said:


> lol fair enough i think you probably are right but still it must be a pretty nice shirt




Only $130, but I happen to like this shirt :


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## M34N (22 January 2008)

vishalt said:


> It's going to be crazy.
> 
> On the one hand it could crash 500-1000 points but if Helicopter Ben comes out and smacks in an emergency cut the Dow could reverse or pare losses.



OK, Ben cuts, how much will make a difference? 0.5%? 0.75%? Maybe even 1%!?

It's going to take a miracle to reverse a US drop tonight, and I think it will be a similar story to what happened in Asia today, drop right at the start and just keep going down as no-one has the incentive to put their money on the line when there's so much negativity and downward pressure from the huge number of sellers all trying to get out.

On the plus side, a 10% fall will trigger a trading halt on the Dow for an hour... 

Godspeed to those who had the nerve to invest today.


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## wildmanchris (22 January 2008)

I have to agree - people are panicing in a big way and there would have to be some big money intervention to take it back up.  The fed meeting starts at ten, and if the DOW opens on a big fall it will be a great effort to get back up.


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## Nyden (22 January 2008)

SPI 200 Futures point to a quote unquote rally of 70 pts :

In my opinion though, any gains will be stemmed by a wave of investors still very egar to get out.


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## Pommiegranite (22 January 2008)

No...US will rally late in the day. The rest of the world didn't price this in. Big bounce tomorrow


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## 3MT (22 January 2008)

we've had 12 bad luck days, I think 13 this time will be the lucky number.

Some stocks will rally tomorrow. I wish I know which ones.


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## chewy (22 January 2008)

I was saying on another thread i think there is a possibility that we will be up tomorrow even off a bad DOW night. We have to assume the US is going to be very bad night - they have to after missing the holiday and the world dumping. So the logical follow-on from that is that we will have to have a bad day tomorrow after a very bad US night. So therefore we all believed that even though today's prices were very bad they were going to be even worse tomorrow, so it seems crazy to hold and everyone dumped. But perhaps they overdid it and tomorrow will be up. maybe...


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## Lucky_Country (22 January 2008)

FTSE up now lets see what happens in the US tonight.
Will Ben tonight too give the market a lift ?
Futures saying AUS up tommorrow lets hope so


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## cordelia (22 January 2008)

well i can't see a lot of enthusiatic buyers leaping out of bed tomorrow and putting their cash into the stock market. could be wrong


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## Ken (22 January 2008)

The market is not determined by the day traders I wouldnt have thought.

Its the majors that determine which way it go.

You, me, and the rest of here are just along for the ride they take us on.

The market is determined by the billionaire companies.


If I was a betting man, I would say the number of people jumping off the westgates is at an all time high since essendon lost carlton in the pre lim.


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## Duckman#72 (22 January 2008)

Ken said:


> If I was a betting man, I would say the number of people jumping off the westgates is at an all time high since essendon lost carlton in the pre lim.




Now the pre lim final loss to Carlton was a REAL tragedy!!! Not like this little blimp on the screen.

Why did Wallis try to take on the man??!!! One hand pass to Fletcher and the ball was heading goalwards. Oh the injustice of it all!!!

Duckman


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## steven1234 (23 January 2008)

Latest news:-

Bank of America Q4 profit falls.  $US5.28 billion write-down 

Johnson and Johnson report higher earnings.


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## ithatheekret (23 January 2008)

I voted yes , but I don't know , we've surpassed 5400 , I do have 5100-4800 in a tranch of data , but , never in my wildest thoughts did I think it would go that far , it would mean a total recoup of all gains made by the indexes .

The hard part to grasp is the history made today , but then the markets have never seen leverage at levels that were placed on it . That leverage would have surely added to the downside today as the margin beepers went off and phones rang with courtesy calls .

On thing we can be sure of though is that there's a pile of money sitting on the fence now , not a big a pile as some would like , but at least they have a pile left .

Right now though , I'm waiting for Hanks fireside chat . Then the market open which I'll wince at , then wait for the USD reactions , Skippy has made up a bit of lost ground today , oh oh oh heeeeerrrreeee's Hank . If he says strong dollar ..............


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## steven1234 (23 January 2008)

The US may open badly, which will set the scene for Bernakie to step in with an interest rate cut to start the rally.  Will this happen Tuesday or Wendesday, or will he wait till the end of the month?  

If we have an early cut followed by good earnings report lets hope we see a strong rally in the near future.  We need to factor in that the current market may ignore good news and only act on the bad.      

... I think tomorow will be green for us.


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## nizar (23 January 2008)

I think the bottom of this correction will be about 4500, this would be the trendline since 1987 uptrend.

As for the time, i don't know, possible a couple of months.

And when was the last time the XAO RSI was sitting on about 10?  

Where are all of those permabull bargain hunters??


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## ithatheekret (23 January 2008)

nizar said:


> Where are all of those permabull bargain hunters??





Feedlots , they'll need fattening now ........


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## Buffettology (23 January 2008)

chewy said:


> I was saying on another thread i think there is a possibility that we will be up tomorrow even off a bad DOW night. We have to assume the US is going to be very bad night - they have to after missing the holiday and the world dumping. So the logical follow-on from that is that we will have to have a bad day tomorrow after a very bad US night. So therefore we all believed that even though today's prices were very bad they were going to be even worse tomorrow, so it seems crazy to hold and everyone dumped. But perhaps they overdid it and tomorrow will be up. maybe...




ha ha, I think I followed your post, and if I did, I actually thought the same!


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## Buffettology (23 January 2008)

Ken said:


> The market is not determined by the day traders I wouldnt have thought.
> 
> Its the majors that determine which way it go.
> 
> ...




Yeh, I beleive its in the range of 90%.  Though, with all these SMSFs, who knows, it could be somewhat less these days.

But who thought last correction that our market would fall 300 points and recover the entire lot in a day?  I surely had NO idea and didnt see that coming!  When the big guns decide to buy, everyone else jumps on board and sentiment can suddenly swing!  Its a funny old market, no logic, no common sense, this is why I agree when some say trading is gambling.  Only long-run fundamentals (long-run can equal vast different time ranges for different stocks) can determine to some degree the price of a stock.

Good luck to all you fellas!  We all sure do need it, whether we are value investors or traders!  I have never seen a situation like this in my stockmarket span of about 13 years, or studied an economic situation like this in the history of our global economy.  We are in for an unpredictable, turbulent time!  Just glad I dont own property, hope its not like the tulip bubble back in the 1400s or whenever it was!


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## Miner (23 January 2008)

*EMERGENCY RATE CUT *

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Jan. 22 (Bloomberg) -- The Federal Reserve lowered interest rates in an emergency move for the first time since 2001 after tumbling global stock markets and a jump in the U.S. unemployment threatened to push the economy into recession.

*The central bank lowered the benchmark overnight lending rate to 3.5 percent from 4.25 percent, the *Federal Open Market Committee said in a statement in Washington. Policy makers weren't scheduled to gather on rates until Jan. 29-30.

Dow futures paring loss, SPI200 pointing up 3%.


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## explod (23 January 2008)

Miner said:


> *EMERGENCY RATE CUT *
> 
> --------------------------------------------------------------------------
> 
> ...




FTSE up 3% on half an hour ago.   All saved by Big Ben, can hear de toll from here.


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## DionM (23 January 2008)

So the DOW is down only ~1% (110 pts), SPI Futures are up ~1%.

Hmmm.


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