# Talk of recession as Swan fumbles the figures



## MrBurns (5 November 2008)

From Crikey............5/11/08



> Talk of recession as Swan fumbles the figures
> Canberra correspondent Bernard Keane writes:
> 
> 
> ...


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## adobee (5 November 2008)

I dont mind labour but i am not a fan of Wayne Swan whenever I see him interviewed his sort of nodding everytime he makes a point drives me crazy.. and he gives repetitive answers...  (if this is the worst he does I guess he is not that bad)..


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## MrBurns (5 November 2008)

adobee said:


> I dont mind labour but i am not a fan of Wayne Swan whenever I see him interviewed his sort of nodding everytime he makes a point drives me crazy.. and he gives repetitive answers...  (if this is the worst he does I guess he is not that bad)..




I dont think he'll last but I'm not sure how they'll get rid of him.


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## Duckman#72 (5 November 2008)

MrBurns said:


> I dont think he'll last but I'm not sure how they'll get rid of him.




His performance on 7:30 Report was unimpressive tonight. He doesn't answer questions and doesn't appear to be on top of his briefings. It is as if he is always 3 steps behind each issue - as if he is continually playing catch up.


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## Glen48 (5 November 2008)

Wayne is in trouble because this FWD is like a 24 hr Virus things are changing quicker than he can keep up.Look what has happened in the past few week they are spend 1/2 of the $20 B now its down to $5b remaining, tax cuts cut. I think they are just realising they have a Wall of debt, bad news coming at them at the speed of sound.
The next thing will be the growth downgraded to a negative.
Looks like the new pres. is looking after USA first.


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## Julia (5 November 2008)

Duckman#72 said:


> His performance on 7:30 Report was unimpressive tonight. He doesn't answer questions and doesn't appear to be on top of his briefings. It is as if he is always 3 steps behind each issue - as if he is continually playing catch up.




I thought the same thing.  And when he is fumbling and unsure he tries to make up for it with bluster.  This just makes him look even less competent.


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## chops_a_must (5 November 2008)

adobee said:


> I dont mind labour but i am not a fan of Wayne Swan whenever I see him interviewed his sort of nodding everytime he makes a point drives me crazy.. and he gives repetitive answers...  (if this is the worst he does I guess he is not that bad)..




Easily the most incompetent minister they have.

Get Tanner in there already FFS!


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## roland (5 November 2008)

what a useless attempt - what would be wrong with "I don't have the exact figure with me, I'll put it in your press summary"

the whole Rudd government tends to be all doing the same ducking and weaving


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## Julia (5 November 2008)

chops_a_must said:


> Easily the most incompetent minister they have.
> 
> Get Tanner in there already FFS!



Agreed.   Tanner seems competent, is articulate and genuinely attempts to answer questions in a meaningful way.


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## Smurf1976 (6 November 2008)

This is exactly the sort of thing that went on before the last recession.

1. The boom will last for ever.

2. Slowdown? No chance, we're strong.

3. A bit of a slowdown but we'll be fine.

4. A slowdown certainly, but no recession.

5. Government refuses to admit possibility of recession.

6. Possibility of recession acknowledged, but it will be a quick bounce that won't last.

7. "Recession we had to have" sees 1 million unemployed and queues the length of entire city blocks for even basic jobs.

We've gone from 1 to 5 in a couple of months so I'd say a recession is pretty much a certainty at this rate. Odds are we'll get to 6 this month and the recession is probably already underway - but it won't show up in official figures that will be officially acknowledged until April - May next year.

Note that even the official forecasts now point to higher unemployment. If it's officially forecast then you know it's coming...


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## sammy84 (6 November 2008)

Watching Swan in question time is utterly painful. He is always flustered in the face, has no composure, cant answer a question without yelling and responds to any question on the defensive, by simply blaming the libs and not offering any good insight. I agree with the Tanner suggestion but it looks like Swan has too much factional support. All this just makes me really miss Costello, whilst he couldn't have saved us from this mess, he could at least speak with some conviction and create confidence.


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## numbercruncher (6 November 2008)

He is running scared because he knows Australia has the potential to be spanked harder than any other Western nation .....

Theyre addicted to a hole in the ground economy and thats going pear shaped at a pace they could never of even dreamed or nighmared about.

Seriously what do we have to offer the world other than stuff we dig up ? Previous Government has failed miserably in preparing us for a rainy day ..... I cant believe after a decade of ever increasing income we are so woefully unprepared and vulnerable.

Our bAnAnA republic' destiny awaits ??


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## MrBurns (6 November 2008)

Seems we're all agreed that Swan is more than useless and yes Costello would have at least made us feel like there was someone with a brain in charge.

As for when the recession starts to hit, I'm watching the retail firgures especially Harvey Norman, no real sign yet but when those figures plunge you will know we're on the slippery down slope.

Added - unemployment is rising by the day, I feel for the poor bastards that are put out of work and have no hope of finding anything else.


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## gav (6 November 2008)

MrBurns said:


> Added - unemployment is rising by the day, I feel for the poor bastards that are put out of work and have no hope of finding anything else.




I was recently successful for a govt job.  Only two positions were available, and there were 23 applicants!  It seems ppl are looking for steady jobs...


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## MrBurns (6 November 2008)

gav said:


> I was recently successful for a govt job.  Only two positions were available, and there were 23 applicants!  It seems ppl are looking for steady jobs...




Congratulations, work hard and keep your head down !


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## sammy84 (6 November 2008)

MrBurns said:


> unemployment is rising by the day, I feel for the poor bastards that are put out of work and have no hope of finding anything else.




Figures out today actually showed that unemployed has risen slightly for the mean time.
http://www.skynews.com.au/business/article.aspx?id=276544


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## adobee (6 November 2008)

It could be possible that Swan is awful at speaking to the media but actually a brilliant economist and treasurer.. I have seen any proof of it but I dont think he should be judged only on his tv performance.. (althought his constant nodding / leaning forward kills it and I cant bare to watch when he doesnt have an answer and speak louder and tougher...)

I could handle if they had a complete nerd who couldnt talk at all on tv but was a wizz when it came to economics.. maths etc... 

Turnball and Bishop will eat him up..  and both of them have facebook links from the liberals website.. !!


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## inrodwetrust (6 November 2008)

Hi,

Correct me if I'm wrong but didn't Swan got to the same school as Rudd, Nabour High?(Swan on the footy team & Rudd on the Chess or Debating team or something) 

Wasn't it also Rudd & Swan who through successful investing built up the coffers of the Goss Qld Labor finances? Though I don't know how much Swan contributed.

So if your think he'll get the flick.....I think your dreamin' !

And hope that he doesn't cause if he does he'll have to do a monumental stuff up! 

Regards


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## Glen48 (6 November 2008)

If the Libs put up Costello it will all be over for Krudd.
I am sure they have no idea how bad this will be. 500 car yard closing up unable to get finance for people who don't want to buy a car.
Fully employed ( more than 2 hr a Week ) those on 38 hr are down and the latest figures are 6 mths old. Part time employment increasing but a few hrs a week will not go far.
More bad news to come each day.


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## Julia (6 November 2008)

adobee said:


> It could be possible that Swan is awful at speaking to the media but actually a brilliant economist and treasurer.. I have seen any proof of it but I dont think he should be judged only on his tv performance.. (althought his constant nodding / leaning forward kills it and I cant bare to watch when he doesnt have an answer and speak louder and tougher...)




As far as I know he's not an economist for a start.   Does anyone know what skills he can claim to make him competent as Treasurer?

Especially under the current circumstances of fear and anxiety, the Treasurer needs not only to be absolutely competent, but needs to be seen to be so.
Costello, if Treasurer now, would be calm and measured in his comments and project an air of being in control.   Swan absolutely does not do this.

And we've just spent eight years lamenting GW Bush's mispronunciations.
Swan looks like taking over from him with his repeated comments about the "deteriating" situation!    Why doesn't someone tell him it's "deteriorating"!


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## inrodwetrust (6 November 2008)

> As far as I know he's not an economist for a start. Does anyone know what skills he can claim to make him competent as Treasurer?




A career Labor politician? perhaps.. why he is the Treasurer, not so sure about the competent bit! 

http://www.treasurer.gov.au/DisplayDocs.aspx?doc=biography.htm&PageID=090&min=wms


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## numbercruncher (6 November 2008)

Glen48 said:


> If the Libs put up Costello it will all be over for Krudd.
> I am sure they have no idea how bad this will be. 500 car yard closing up unable to get finance for people who don't want to buy a car.
> Fully employed ( more than 2 hr a Week ) those on 38 hr are down and the latest figures are 6 mths old. Part time employment increasing but a few hrs a week will not go far.
> More bad news to come each day.




Yes Labor are crap at handling this so far ....... But liberal got us in the position of all eggs in one basket, completely blinded by rising commodity prices and the China exhaggeration.

Yup early days yet, the real econmy has truckloads more pain bearing down on it ......


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## Roo72 (6 November 2008)

Swan has a Bachelor of Arts Degree......my house cleaner has one of those.
Actually, I thought he was a train driver but good old Wikipedia set me straight


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## rhen (6 November 2008)

numbercruncher said:


> He is running scared because he knows Australia has the potential to be spanked harder than any other Western nation .....
> 
> Theyre addicted to a hole in the ground economy and thats going pear shaped at a pace they could never of even dreamed or nighmared about.
> 
> ...




I've already provided this link in another thread so apologies to those who have already visited same. However, I felt the following needed to be included herein:
_Despite months of assurances by the Rudd government and the regulatory agencies that Australia's banks are sound--unlike their US and European counterparts--a prolonged credit freeze-up will have serious implications for the banks, which depend on the international money markets for up to 60 percent of their funding sources.

Since October 2006, the International Monetary Fund has issued several warnings about the fragility of the Australian banks. Just two weeks ago, the IMF said the global turmoil had "highlighted their vulnerability to rollover risk associated with short-term wholesale funding" and "the protracted loss of access to international short-term debt markets".

Last week a Freedom of Information request by the Australian revealed that the federal government's $64 billion Future Fund, set up in 2006 from accumulated budget surpluses and the privatisation of Telstra, secretly lent unknown amounts to three of the big four banks-Westpac, the ANZ and NAB-shortly after the global crisis intensified with the collapse of the US investment bank Bear Sterns on March 16.

While the total amount of these loans is unknown, they potentially expose the Future Fund to further losses. According to calculations by the Australian, the fund, which the previous Howard government claimed would "future-proof" the Australian economy, has already lost $2 billion through investments on stock exchanges and other money markets._
http://www.wsws.org/articles/2008/oct2008/econ-o08.shtml

If you read the article further, you may find that matters get worse!


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## Smurf1976 (6 November 2008)

Roo72 said:


> Swan has a Bachelor of Arts Degree......my house cleaner has one of those.
> Actually, I thought he was a train driver but good old Wikipedia set me straight



Train drivers actually do something useful and have to know what's going on around them, otherwise we'd end up with a train wreck.

Politicians are far better at wrecking things than even the worst train driver.


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## Julia (6 November 2008)

rhen said:


> I've already provided this link in another thread so apologies to those who have already visited same. However, I felt the following needed to be included herein:
> _Despite months of assurances by the Rudd government and the regulatory agencies that Australia's banks are sound--unlike their US and European counterparts--a prolonged credit freeze-up will have serious implications for the banks, which depend on the international money markets for up to 60 percent of their funding sources.
> 
> Since October 2006, the International Monetary Fund has issued several warnings about the fragility of the Australian banks. Just two weeks ago, the IMF said the global turmoil had "highlighted their vulnerability to rollover risk associated with short-term wholesale funding" and "the protracted loss of access to international short-term debt markets".
> ...



Rhen, I heard David Murray, CEO of the Future Fund interviewed a couple of weeks ago.  He stated that the Fund had made a profit (can't remember the amount now) which he considered more than reasonable under the current circumstances.  So his statement doesn't seem to concur with the quote above.


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## Julia (7 November 2008)

Colin Twiggs usually has a rational view, viz his newsletter today:


> he task of the new government will be to restore confidence in the financial system, in the business community, and amongst consumers. A significant obstacle that needs to be overcome is the inordinate influence that well-funded special interest lobbies exercise over Congress: big banks, big oil, drug companies and the health care sector, to name but a few.
> 
> Restoring confidence in the financial system will require strong regulation of financial markets and enforcement of conservative capital-asset ratios. Re-capitalizing banks is already making a difference, with a substantial drop in the price of credit default swaps. Establishing a formal market for the more than $62 trillion in credit default swaps would provide additional comfort.
> 
> ...


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## Julia (12 November 2008)

I'm really over hearing Mr Swan mispronounce "deteriorate".

Here is an email I have sent to him, though I'm not optimistic it will engender any change.



> Dear Mr Swan
> 
> May I respectfully suggest that it would greatly increase your credibility if you were to pronounce "deteriorate" correctly.
> 
> ...


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## MrBurns (12 November 2008)

Julia said:


> I'm really over hearing Mr Swan mispronounce "deteriorate".
> 
> Here is an email I have sent to him, though I'm not optimistic it will engender any change.




Wel done Juilia, hope it works we'll all listen with interest.

If it does work perhaps follow it up with a "please resign" email ?


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## Julia (12 November 2008)

MrBurns said:


> W
> If it does work perhaps follow it up with a "please resign" email ?



LOL!   Big difference between the two requests.  But I don't disagree with your sentiments.  Did you see him on the 7.30 Report this evening?   Trying to sound in charge and failing utterly.   Lindsay Tanner has a thousand times more credibility.  He at least listens to and responds to questions.  Swan appears to have a little player in his voice box which responds to questions by setting itself off automatically to deliver the same old non-answers every time.

Ken Henry, amongst the excerpts I heard of his speech to the Press Club today, nominated confidence as being at the basis of our current woes, given that governments everywhere have provided the stimulus to get the credit markets moving again.   He indicated (paraphrasing) that the current situation will be self-fulfilling as long as confidence is not instilled in the population.   Sounds pretty right to me.   Swan and Rudd, with their constant emphasis on how bad things are may well be making everything worse.  They could do well to take some advice from Dr Henry.


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## MrBurns (12 November 2008)

Julia said:


> LOL!   Big difference between the two requests.  But I don't disagree with your sentiments.  Did you see him on the 7.30 Report this evening?   Trying to sound in charge and failing utterly.   Lindsay Tanner has a thousand times more credibility.  He at least listens to and responds to questions.  Swan appears to have a little player in his voice box which responds to questions by setting itself off automatically to deliver the same old non-answers every time.
> 
> Ken Henry, amongst the excerpts I heard of his speech to the Press Club today, nominated confidence as being at the basis of our current woes, given that governments everywhere have provided the stimulus to get the credit markets moving again.   He indicated (paraphrasing) that the current situation will be self-fulfilling as long as confidence is not instilled in the population.   Sounds pretty right to me.   Swan and Rudd, with their constant emphasis on how bad things are may well be making everything worse.  They could do well to take some advice from Dr Henry.




No didn't see him tonight , saw a bit of Henry today, seems like he knows whats what but he looks so dour, not a hint of humor very serious guy.

I agree that confidence is important to get things going again .....eventually ........but I don't agree that confidence is at the root of the present problem far from it.

If the banks arent willing to lend to each other how do they expect anyone else to feel upbeat.


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## Glen48 (12 November 2008)

Maybe Wayne wants to buy a Bowel as his copping a hiding each day when he get more bad news about Australia economy heading South?


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## MrBurns (13 November 2008)

Julia said:


> LOL!   Big difference between the two requests.  But I don't disagree with your sentiments.  Did you see him on the 7.30 Report this evening?   Trying to sound in charge and failing utterly.   Lindsay Tanner has a thousand times more credibility.  He at least listens to and responds to questions.  Swan appears to have a little player in his voice box which responds to questions by setting itself off automatically to deliver the same old non-answers every time.
> 
> Ken Henry, amongst the excerpts I heard of his speech to the Press Club today, nominated confidence as being at the basis of our current woes, given that governments everywhere have provided the stimulus to get the credit markets moving again.   He indicated (paraphrasing) that the current situation will be self-fulfilling as long as confidence is not instilled in the population.   Sounds pretty right to me.   Swan and Rudd, with their constant emphasis on how bad things are may well be making everything worse.  They could do well to take some advice from Dr Henry.




I forgot to mention Henry was on about changing/simplifing the Tax system I wish he or someone would just get on with it, it's a basket case at present.


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