# AUD/USD



## traderino

just wanted to check how aud is against usd in the last months.
well, the scenario is quite clear: medium term is still bearish and short term too.
In these days the pair is testing short term trendline (black one) for the third time, after a v-shape pattern. Moreover, the currency is facing an important area across 0,73-0,74: in fact, it has been paused a lot of times. 
Maybe, a strong break of the short term trendline will let the pair run over to 0,74-0,7450 area where the medium term trendline is running.
As usual, the market will be the final judge...

cheers


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## cornnfedd

*AUD/USD - up, down, turn it around?*

What are peoples opinions on the AUD against the USD in the next few months? Some are saying a low of .50-.55 while others believe it will bounce back to .70-.75?

I hope it bounces back.


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## wallyt99

*Re: AUD/USD - up, down, turn it around?*

Pure random guess.....

The AUD will continue to diminish for 6 months to say 57c....then gradually move up to over the next few years, eventually overtaking gaining parity on the back of the next China based commodity price boom.


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## weird

Never really paid much attention to currencies before as I don't trade fx, but looking at currency futures, interesting to see how the Euro, British Pound and Aussie seems to be in sync, and opposite with the Yen and US.  

Good if planning a trip to Europe, perhaps, not so good if planning a trip to either Japan or the US. Perhaps not a trading or business perspective, but heck there is more to life.


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## Kauri

may be a mug... as opposed to a cup..   
  butt... a dollar is a dollar... or was until this meltdown

Cheers
...........Kauri


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## Kauri

Kauri said:


> may be a mug... as opposed to a cup..
> butt... a dollar is a dollar... or was until this meltdown
> 
> Cheers
> ...........Kauri




 a bitt of a storm in the teacup..

Cheers
............Kauri


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## Kauri

Kauri said:


> a bitt of a storm in the teacup..
> 
> Cheers
> ............Kauri




  as my old father used to say.... in one ear and out the other...   

Cheers
..........Kauri


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## Boggo

When is it gonna fall off its perch Kauri, I reckon its about time it headed back down to 59, its at a significant point now.

Then again I have been waiting all afternoon


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## Kauri

Boggo said:


> When is it gonna fall off its perch Kauri, I reckon its about time it headed back down to 59, its at a significant point now.
> 
> Then again I have been waiting all afternoon




   my collideascope is mostly long... little ledgie forming... hope it doesn't morph into a wedgie...     I'm just sitting back waiting for the market to tell me what it decides... currently.. I thunk..
 Cheers
............Kauri


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## Kauri

Kauri said:


> my collideascope is mostly long... little ledgie forming... hope it doesn't morph into a wedgie...  I'm just sitting back waiting for the market to tell me what it decides... currently.. I thunk..
> Cheers
> ............Kauri




  and a quick stop and reverse... will be wathig the short closely...  for now anyways..

 Cheers
............Kauri


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## BentRod

A gem of a trade that Cup budgie man.

nice. 

Do you trade them often?

I can't say I have traded them.

O'neil likes em on the weeklies, that's all I know about the pattern.

Do they work well Intraday??

cheers mate


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## Kauri

Kauri said:


> and a quick stop and reverse... will be wathig the short closely... for now anyways..
> 
> Cheers
> ............Kauri





gave some back... I'm happy with that... me an you and a dog named Boo.. living and a working on the lam...
....must be going Lobo..

Cheers
............Kauri


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## Bushman

*Re: AUD/USD - up, down, turn it around?*



cornnfedd said:


> What are peoples opinions on the AUD against the USD in the next few months? Some are saying a low of .50-.55 while others believe it will bounce back to .70-.75?
> 
> I hope it bounces back.




Here's one that The Age is quoting. Probably the same muppet who said that the AUD would hit parity with the USD sometime next year.


'The currency has dropped 31% since reaching a 25-year high of 98.49 US cents on July 16, sliding as prices of crude oil, gold and nickel declined. It reached 47.75 cents in April 2001, the lowest since it started trading freely in 1983.


"I can see it certainly dropping quite sharply from here," Carlin Doyle, a London-based currency strategist at State Street Global Markets said. The Australian dollar could fall "below the 40 cent level and I can see that happening in the next year or so," he added.'


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## Kauri

The AUD/USD has been clobbered below 0.6750 in early Sydney by a large European bank. There isn"t any news to speak of, but the market is especially thin ahead of the end of month London fix later today when massive amounts in thin markets are going to have to change hands. The talk is that there will be very large USD buying flows against the EUR and AUD at the fix as portfolio managers rebalance for month-end. 
      The key event today for the AUD and all of the asset markets will be the BOJ decision later today. The market expects the BOJ to ease 25 BPS to 0.25% and if they don"t it would be poorly received by equity markets and put the AUD under heavy pressure again. If they do ease it should underpin equities and carry trade currencies even though the London Fix is likely to discourage any aggressive buying.

Cheers
.............Kauri


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## alphaman

Kauri said:


> The talk is that there will be very large USD buying flows against the EUR and AUD at the fix as portfolio managers rebalance for month-end.



I wonder how rebalancing works. I mean, if everyone waits until the very last day to rebalance, prices will certainly be unfavourable. If I were a portfolio manager I would have completed most of the rebalancing by now.


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## Whiskers

*Re: AUD/USD - up, down, turn it around?*



Bushman said:


> Here's one that The Age is quoting. Probably the same muppet who said that the AUD would hit parity with the USD sometime next year.
> 
> 
> 'The currency has dropped 31% since reaching a 25-year high of 98.49 US cents on July 16, sliding as prices of crude oil, gold and nickel declined. It reached 47.75 cents in April 2001, the lowest since it started trading freely in 1983.
> 
> 
> "I can see it certainly dropping quite sharply from here," Carlin Doyle, a London-based currency strategist at State Street Global Markets said. The Australian dollar could fall "below the 40 cent level and I can see that happening in the next year or so," he added.'




Well, for what it's worth, There's a good morning star on the AUD/USD.

Bottoms in! :hide:

I'm tipping .77 pretty soon to fill that gap.

I don't know if anyone noticed, but there was a little morning star that kicked off the reversal of the USDX higher a few months ago too.


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## Boggo

I am in for a little run... hopefully.

30 min chart.


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## BentRod

> I'm tipping .77 pretty soon to fill that gap.




You'll be waiting a while


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## Boggo

I closed out for +20, too painful to watch 

High fifties could be looking good ?


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## Whiskers

BentRod said:


> You'll be waiting a while




Well... in a couple of weeks or so. 

Probably gotta go a tad lower first though.


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## michael_selway

Whiskers said:


> Well... in a couple of weeks or so.
> 
> Probably gotta go a tad lower first though.




Hm so are u bullish or bearish on AUD/US?







thx

MS


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## CanOz

I won't get too bullish until it breaks through the congestion area again. With everyone talking about a bounce in equities its hard to imagine that it would test 55 sooner rather than later, but thats where it needs to go in my view.

Time will tell.

Cheers,


CanOz


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## Whiskers

Whiskers said:


> Well... in a couple of weeks or so.
> 
> Probably gotta go a tad lower first though.




Oh... apparently I forgot to post my chart. 



michael_selway said:


> Hm so are u bullish or bearish on AUD/US?




I'm bullish Michael... since we have a nice Morning Star there on the bottom... but after it looks like it's done wave 2.


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## arco

.
Pips can be gathered in both directions using lower time-frame Ichimoku signals, but the long term chart has not signaled any signs of breakthrough yet.


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## BentRod

Whiskers said:


> Well... in a couple of weeks or so.
> 
> Probably gotta go a tad lower first though.




The point is, the gap at 77 does NOT exist.

Your data is bad.

Will you be revising your 77 target now?...lol :



> I'm tipping .77 pretty soon to fill that gap.


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## Whiskers

BentRod said:


> The point is, the gap at 77 does NOT exist.
> 
> Your data is bad.
> 
> Will you be revising your 77 target now?...lol :




Oh... I see your "" point now.

Ha ha, no, 77 was just a talking point cos I noticed the gap there.

Not my data. Just a site that I refer to, to track the main currencies. But yeah I've noticed bad data ocassionally even on Big Charts and Incredible Charts as well as mine, ocassionally. With mine I tend to refresh the data quite often now just in case something gets corrupted.

But back to my target... as you probably saw, I mentioned the 'Morning Star' as the bottom. 

I'm thinking around 80ish for the short/medium term.

So... are you doubting that the AUD has bottomed or just that it won't get to 77.

Oh, btw you might also notice, I noticed a lot of Morning Stars in the last few days. (Gold and XAO threads)


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## BentRod

> So... are you doubting that the AUD has bottomed or just that it won't get to 77.




haha.....no idea where it is going mate, looks like the line of least resistance is down though.

I'll stick to trading and leave the fortune telling to you


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## Kauri

*Re: AUD/USD - up, down, turn it around?*



Whiskers said:


> Well, for what it's worth, *There's a good morning star on the AUD/USD.*
> 
> Bottoms in! :hide:
> 
> I'm tipping .77 pretty soon to fill that gap.
> 
> I don't know if anyone noticed, but there was a little morning star that kicked off the reversal of the USDX higher a few months ago too.




  Where?


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## Whiskers

*Re: AUD/USD - up, down, turn it around?*



Kauri said:


> Where?




...on the USDX... I did say 'little'... but morning star none-the-less.


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## noirua

Present price AUD1.491 (0.6703 reverse) to the USD1.

I doubt the tanking of the Aussie is over yet as the commodity export reductions have not been fully factored in yet.  Some companies are now seeing bad debt rising on non-payment of shipping orders.
Currency swings usually go on for a few years.
Talk of near parity with the greenback may not be realistic, but markets seem to  try to test these levels anyway.


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## Indie

No doubt AUD heads higher as equities rebound. Time to exit and wait for a better entry point for the next leg down, .73ish maybe. Same with JPY. Still a good result for USD trade (for me), but very slim pickings for JPY......we live and learn. Into next year the trend for equities is still down IMO so I'll be back in to short AUD before too long......weeks or months? That's the question....weeks hopefully.


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## Wysiwyg

*If* the interest rate cut has been factored into the present price then the stochastic oscillator has the AUD/USD about to move up again.Note the %K at or near recent lows with %D yet to cross over.At least a reversal in my interpretation.

This is a 4H chart and is in oversold territory.This is just my interpretation.


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## Whiskers

I was just saying something similar over in the AUD thread Wysiwyg . Maybe I should be over here.

There's also a bit of positive divergence starting especially in the lower time frames.

My 'L' plate EW is looking for wave 4 anytime now and I'm thinking it probably won't get much below 61 for wave 5.

Hourly chart below.


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## Glen48

It sounds like B O is having trouble getting Bail out Mk. 10 underway...as some of the money he wants is to go for things like treating AIDS etc and they boys are not happy + China is sick of supplying the US with more loot so if USA can't get any more $$ won't the USD tank or is the USD just to strong and the lesser of all the other evils?


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## Wysiwyg

Another thing Whiskers is the trend line from 15 jan. is being questioned.Dealing in probabilities here and according to the unwritten rules, no one is allowed to be right too often. 

Your wave 4 is inevitable too.I don`t understand how wave duration is plotted.Only after it has happened?


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## Wysiwyg

Wysiwyg said:


> *If* the interest rate cut has been factored into the present price then the stochastic oscillator has the AUD/USD about to move up again.Note the %K at or near recent lows with %D yet to cross over.At least a reversal in my interpretation.
> 
> This is a 4H chart and is in oversold territory.This is just my interpretation.





Well the crossover has taken place (4H range .6248 to .6333 ) and the price is trying hard to make a reversal.Due for a yellow candle if the oscillator is worth anything.

Help Whiskers, where is that wave 4 man.


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## Stormin_Norman

i think we'll see it after the interest rate announcement tomorrow.


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## Wysiwyg

Well last post on this pair in this episode for the time being from me.How far from here is anyones guess and some probabilities may arise from somewhere else. 

Stochastic oscillator (exponential method) using 14 day period, 3%K and 5%D on a 4 hour chart.


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## Whiskers

Wysiwyg said:


> Well the crossover has taken place (4H range .6248 to .6333 ) and the price is trying hard to make a reversal.Due for a yellow candle if the oscillator is worth anything.
> 
> Help Whiskers, where is that wave 4 man.




I'm afraid I closed out yesterday mate. Had some eye trouble... just had some laser work today, gotta see another specialist tomorrow.

Couldn't help but have a quick look tonight first... but I think I'll stay on the sidelines until I'm able to spend some time on it.

Best guess at a quick glance, I think it may go something like this on the hourly.


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## BentRod

I took a long on the Aussie last night with reverse stops below the recent bounce on the channel(Yesterdays Lows).

Not really getting on with it so I assume reverse stops will get triggered tonight?

I think it all depends on the Euro which at this stage looks like wants to seek out all those stops hiding under the recent lows. 

Aussie 4 hour:


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## Wysiwyg

Whiskers said:


> Couldn't help but have a quick look tonight first... but I think I'll stay on the sidelines until I'm able to spend some time on it.
> 
> Best guess at a quick glance, I think it may go something like this on the hourly.




In the wars matey!Wishing Whiskers a brisk recovery.Thanks for your point of view.


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## waz

Can anyone explain why the Au has fallen 1.4c in the last hour?
Equity markets seem pretty stable, having slightly increased since our market close on wednesday.

Commodities are stable too.

The only news I have seen are profit downgrades and Kazakhstan Devaluing the Tenge 18%.


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## Frank D

*AUD Weekly and 3-day pattern*

AUD expectation is to continue down towards .5968 cents in February.

If it breaks Wednesday's lows it should hopefully gather pace the rest of this week....

Random support Wedneday's lows.

As long as price is trading below the 5-day 50% level, then my view is a continuation down.


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## Kauri

back up for a whiles... then back down to the roaring fifties... or so my Budgies say..

Cheers
...........Kauri


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## Wysiwyg

Kauri said:


> back up for a whiles... then back down to the roaring fifties... or so my Budgies say..
> 
> Cheers
> ...........Kauri





The late 50c`s ?? I would like to see that.First post back for awhile I see.


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## Frank D

*AUD Monthly and Weekly charts :- Weekly report*

Expectation that the AUD was going to down into February's low 
hasn't played out, with the Weekly close above the Monthly 50% level.

If the double Monthly low pattern had played out into February's low then
 I would begin to look for a move up towards the Quarterly 50% level:- 76cents

At this stage I'm going to treat AUD based on the Weekly highs next 
week:- resistance

And for any higher move occur, I would use the Monthly 50% level as 
support:- which may or may not hold

Therefore next week my view is for price to come back down into 
the Monthly 50% level from resistance (weekly highs), and rotate back down 
into support.

It obvious that a break above the February highs 
has the potential to move towards the Quarterly
 50% level @ 76cents. But I would only make that conclusion after
 a double bottom , not based on this current price action.




*Last Week Daily set-ups & the 3-day patterns.*

Last week there were 3 *high probability patterns *based on the 
higher timeframe trend and text-book patterns

*Tuesday's* up move with the break of the 3-day filter (yellow) and heading higher:- exit on higher daily close

*Wednesday's* reversal down from the 3-day filter. 

This pattern is your holding set-up:- Monthly and Weekly trend down 
and reversing from the 3-day high filter. Even though price didn't 
continue down this week, that was a 'holding' set-up with the expectation 
of lower prices.

*Thursday's:- Day trading set-up.*

A bounce off the 5-day 50% level, but only confirmed with a move 
back above the 3-day filter @ 64.61 heading back towards Thursday's
 highs


*Friday's rally* , wasn't a trading set-up, simply because of higher 
timeframe dynamics.

There weren' t any *Daily HOOK* patterns over the higher timeframe 
50% levels, unlike GBP.

In fact it was 'short' set-up because of the Monthly 50% level, 
which mirrored Wednesday's reversal down.

But we would have known that the trade was failing simply because 
price was moving from above the 3-day filter and above the Monthly 50% level.


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## Whiskers

Frank D said:


> *AUD Monthly and Weekly charts :- Weekly report*
> 
> Expectation that the AUD was going to down into February's low
> hasn't played out...




No, indeed it didn't Frank... and I've been scratching my head and everything else trying to figure it out, since I got stopped out umpteen times trying to go short.



> It obvious that a break above the February highs
> has the potential to move towards the Quarterly
> 50% level @ 76cents. But I would only make that conclusion after
> a double bottom , not based on this current price action.




The conclusion I have come too (at least for now) is that the larger wave 4 on the daily ((4) on the hourly) has completed and wave 5 is under way with a minor retracement about due to take it back to about the 65's.

Two reasons; wave 5 has progressed more than 61.8% of 4 and it bounced nicely off the trend line under the low and my wave 2... and actually there's three reasons... that's a darn good Morning Star coming off that bottom.

I note some are calling my 1,2,3 an abc looking to go lower into the 40's.

My hourly chart includes the last 6 or so candles of the daily.

Anyone still betting on sub 60's?


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## BentRod

Kauri said:


> back up for a whiles... then back down to the roaring fifties... or so my Budgies say..
> 
> Cheers
> ...........Kauri





BudgieMan

Where have you been?

I (and a few others) have missed your posts!

Hope all is well mate.

Bent.


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## BentRod

Whiskers.....wave four overlapping wave one again.

Why don't you go join The Chartist if you want to learn EW?


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## Phillip

I like to keep my trading very simple.

I think the AUD will come down to the 15 minute 200 ma in the 6550 region and I shall seek a bounce here. I certainly feel it is a short, but not a steep one and profits need to be taken on the uptrend line in my humble opion in view of going long at the 200ma.


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## Kauri

An obvious 5 wave impulse down... now correcting... I would like to see a 38% min correction before the next major move... mayhaps
Cheers
.............Kauri


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## Frank D

*AUD Weekly and spiral filter*

As per morning reports:- higher opens and expectation of a pullback.

AUD pushed upwards on Friday shifting the Weekly 50% level to .6755

Higher Weekly open and looking for a move back down into the February 50% level @ 6565 Random support.

At this stage I’m not convinced that the Monthly 50% level is a robust support
zone that’s going to send the AUD higher. 

Therefore I would need to verify support by exiting shorts, and only then trade longs from a lower daily open rising upwards from support levels.

Partial exit + 85


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## Whiskers

BentRod said:


> Whiskers.....wave four overlapping wave one again.
> 
> Why don't you go join The Chartist if you want to learn EW?




Oops... yes actually the '1 ?' is a text label that just floats along at the same position on the page. I was initially watching for a diagonal triangle on the hourly and hadn't adjusted it. Mostly use the 5 and 1 minute to scalp and look at the hourly and daily for those longer runs that I was getting stopped out of.

Thanks for the chartist tip. He sure has some loyal supporters. Quite a few have tipped him... and I offered a challenge on the gold thread once to see if he could do better than me, in which case I would seriously consider subscribing... but I think I was holding my own OK and he faded away from posting there. 

I should mention again here that I don't rely on EW. I am a fundamentalist that uses TA for short term moves and really only use EW to try to get a handle on the size of moves, to set targets.



Kauri said:


> An obvious 5 wave impulse down... now correcting... I would like to see a 38% min correction before the next major move... mayhaps
> Cheers
> .............Kauri




Yeaah... I thought so too for awhile kauri.

Btw, good to see you back. Need more 'colourful' gentlemen like you around here. 

I'm also considering the possibility that it's a 5 x 5 abc to 6008. The main reason is more fundamental, that if the USD tanks the AUD should fare better off because the % of GDP that Aus is committing to so called stimulus packages is far less than the US and similarly with China our major trading partner.

So if metal prices have bottomed and continue to firm modestly and China's domestic consumption improves along with other nations as the world becomes less reliant on the US, I think it's a distinct possibility, almost probability that the AUD will continue to firm.

I pretty much agree with Frank and Phillip in that if 65ish support is busted it'll need re-evaluating.

Also noteing kaui's possibility that it needs to retrace further... that probably makes my wave 3 a larger degree A and you are left with the same problem I have atm with my wave 4 which would need to be B... ie in both scenerios they are corrective.

Just as a matter of interest, I've labeled numerically until it's obviously corrective or impulsive as more waves unfold. To that end Rod you may be able to chart up your wave count for your wave 1, my wave 4(daily). 

I'm having trouble with that fitting a wave 1 atm... but I'm watching all possibilities cos if we are in a wave c of 2 or new larger degree wave 1, or 1 of a larger degree C, atm it's still a minor impulse wave. Maybe what it does in the next few days will make the bigger picture clearer.


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## Whiskers

Whiskers said:


> BentRod said:
> 
> 
> 
> Whiskers.....wave four overlapping wave one again.
> 
> 
> 
> 
> Oops... yes actually the '1 ?' is a text label that just floats along at the same position on the page. I was initially watching for a diagonal triangle on the hourly and hadn't adjusted it.
Click to expand...



Just realised you may have been referring to the daily count. 

Same as above... considering all possibilities, including (although I think unlikely) that it may turn out to be an a,b,c,d,e triangle... so just go numerically or with '?' until it shows it clear intentions


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## Phillip

Well I am finding the AUD cross really intriguing and have covered my short and gone long. The question is considering resistance becomes support and vice versa is that old gann-like resistance line - now becoming support?

All very fascinating.


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## IFocus

Kauri said:


> An obvious 5 wave impulse down... now correcting... I would like to see a 38% min correction before the next major move... mayhaps
> Cheers
> .............Kauri




Kauri great to see you back hope all's well


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## Whiskers

Getting near decision time. 

Is it going to crack 78 or sink?


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## Stormin_Norman

68?

the USD weakness would suggest its going to give it a good shake.


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## CanOz

IFocus said:


> Kauri great to see you back hope all's well




Ditto that, good to have you back Kauri.

CanOz


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## Whiskers

well I took 6796... a bird in ther hand is worth two in the bush.

See whether I should get on again if it keeps going. Must be due for a bit of a pull back soon.

PS: Yeah Norman, I was monitoring the DX-h9, 1M... with a case of parkinsons disease (the shakes)  for about 13 minutes... got me a bit jittery too wondering which way it was gonna swing 

PPS: Just got a full hand of sell signals. Probably look to go south for a bit next.


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## Whiskers

Stormin_Norman said:


> 68?




Sorry Norman... I should have explained. 

It's all about the big EW debate, which wave count.

It took out yesterdays high but not quite the 19th Jan high... so have to have a bit of a think about the EW implications of that.


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## Frank D

*AUD Weekly* 

Same pattern as yesterday but this time helped by price being pushed 
down by the 3-day filter.

I still have the view of the AUD heading back toward February's 50% level before any up move.

However those who want to watch for any long positions on Tuesday, 
price would need to bounce off the 5-day 50% level @ 6649 and then
 break above the 3-day filter @ 6766

As it will probably push the AUD up towards the Weekly highs 69+

At this stage that's not a set-up to trade longs, it's just something to
 keep an eye on if trading during the GMT-US timezone.

If price had already bounced off the monthly 50% level and this exact 
same pattern was occuring then you would be looking to BUY the 5-day 
50% level and add longs above the 3-day filter:- breakout.

Stick to shorting and manage positions:- partial exit +68


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## Wysiwyg

Dropped 2 cents in about 3/4 of an hour, tanking with the DOW.Opportunity stations folks.


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## noirua

Sinking below the waves again at 64.90 (1.541 reverse) against the USD.


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## Stormin_Norman

bernanke's speech this morning (dont know what he said) has lifted the USD greatly.


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## GumbyLearner

Stormin_Norman said:


> bernanke's speech this morning (dont know what he said) has lifted the USD greatly.




Bernanke live on c-span now

http://www.c-span.org/Watch/watch.aspx?MediaId=HP-R-15283


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## Wysiwyg

GumbyLearner said:


> Bernanke live on c-span now
> 
> http://www.c-span.org/Watch/watch.aspx?MediaId=HP-R-15283





Always wanted to listen into these sessions but couldn`t find a live video feed.Thanks Gumby.


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## Stormin_Norman

thanks gumby.


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## GumbyLearner

Stormin_Norman said:


> thanks gumby.




No worries fellas. The best always comes straight from the horses mouth. IMO


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## Frank D

*AUD Weekly and 5-day pattern*

AUD completes the move down into the February 50% level and 
Tuesday’s lows @ .6530

If AUD is rising higher then around these levels the AUD should find
 support, but I’m not expecting a rally up off this level.

In fact whilst below the 5-day 50% level there is an expectation of 
another down day into Wednesday’s lows.

At this stage it’s too early to be going long on the AUD.

Therefore for those who think the AUD is going higher, then I would wait 
1 more day and then make a decision after that: Perferrably the close of 
the trading week on Friday will give a much clearer view.

Because at this stage I'm favouring my view from last week, lower prices
 in February, and if it is below .6565 next week it will probably go lower.

Wednesday's 50% level and blue filter resistance with 
the expectation that price is following the weekly trend down 
into Wednesday's lows


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## sinner

Hi Frank D,

Not trading this pair at the moment but grateful for your continued analysis.


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## Glen48

This bail out must be the last shot for B.O. so if this fails ( which it will) the USD should rally for awhile and then be all down hill from then on????


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## Phillip

It's a little tedious to trade at this stage, as I am a simple classic chartist I generally look for oversold value. I am keeping an eye on 65c for a long entry, but perhaps I have missed the boat as the pair has held the .618 ratio and bounced off it, which is generally a bullish sign. Seeking to catch it at the blue eclipse.


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## Kauri

Still tonking on... trading each move on its merits... adapting the mindset from easy?? big moves to the smaller more management-needy type enviroment as the big "I'm smarter the market.. this is easy money" type moves fade away... redor white... who cares... so long as it is wet and cold..

Cheers
.........Kauri


----------



## Whiskers

Phillip said:


> I am keeping an eye on 65c for a long entry...
> 
> Seeking to catch it at the blue eclipse.




Looking like a pretty good call there phillip.

On my 5 min Chart things look like coming to a head around 6515/20.

Good bollinger squeeze on the hourly and the DX has been trending up as well.

Something's going to break soon I think.


----------



## Frank D

* Weekly and 5-day pattern*

AUD closes below the February 50% level @ .6565.

As pointed out in yesterday's report I would wait 1 more day if looking
 for longs, even though everything looks bearish atm.

There is nothing to suggest the AUD is going higher, but there is a 
pattern that will give the first sign that this week's down move has stalled.

If the trend is going to continue down then the *blue filter @ 6525 *is going to define whether price moves down into Thursday’s lows and continues with the trend.

Or moves back towards the 3-day filter (yellow @ 6635)

The 3-day filter is always viewed as resistance until broken.

However, if the Monthly 50% level is going to be a valid support zone 
even though price is trading below it, then the 3-day 
filter needs to breakout @ 6635.

If that’s going to happen it’s more than likely to happen during the US timezone.

The Trend is down and expectation is to continue down, but the 3-day 
filter breakout is the first sign that a reversal pattern is taking place.

Above 6635 and the view is price is heading back towards the Weekly 
50% level.

In the short-term Thursday's trend guide should be defined by 6525.


----------



## AbundantIncome

hmmmm ...  AUD/USD 0.0060 spread ... how do be in profit if we get in during that spread ??? 

i seem to get caught a lot in my demo trading so far ... it is trending as per chart but i was still in a loss position .. make me wonder hard hmmmmm

so do people buy market prices or limits only ???

thanks


----------



## Frank D

Depends on the money management techniques.

If you are willing to run wider stops than normal, as many 
position-swing traders do then they are more likely to trade at limit prices.

For those who wait for certain patterns and use intra-day filtering 
techniques they normally trade @ market prices.

I prefer to trade at market prices.

Personally I think that Asian timezone traders have got it lucky
 because there is an abundance of trading opportunities that start from 
the next trading day around 11am here based on the mid-night GMT 
timezone.

But we might not get all the trends because they kick into gear from
 Euro and US timezones, but it can set-up you if you apply some chart reading skills.

Today was the first day that price opened above my filter @ 6525 so the bias was to look for a long trade again the trend.

Because i'm trading against the grain on this trade, I would tighten my exit strategies to a single 41 pip range and then run stops below today's lows.

And see if 6635 breaks or not, but i'll be waiting a long time for that to happen.


----------



## Phillip

AbundantIncome said:


> hmmmm ...  AUD/USD 0.0060 spread ... how do be in profit if we get in during that spread ???
> 
> i seem to get caught a lot in my demo trading so far ... it is trending as per chart but i was still in a loss position .. make me wonder hard hmmmmm
> 
> so do people buy market prices or limits only ???
> 
> thanks





I trade purely on limits with 30 pip stop loss.


----------



## Kauri

and Nadal thinks he has a problem with wedgies..

Cheers
...........Kauri


----------



## fapturbo

Looks like a nice clean retracement ready to be sold into...


----------



## BentRod

haha....Now you talking Fapy   

Aussie is close to breaching that channel on the Daily chart.

Fourth touch usually does it IMHO.


----------



## fapturbo

Retest 0.6350ish is looking likely.

Retest of 0.60c possible.


----------



## fapturbo

Potentially 0.5250 is not out of the question, give the current pattern that is forming...


----------



## Glen48

Gold going up trust in the USD going down...this is the start of a new World.


----------



## CanOz

That pattern may not be completely formed yet FAP....you could see a bounce off that it, not a break. Be prepared for both.

Cheers,

CanOz


----------



## sinner

Hi guys,

Looks like all the pairs are gearing up for their next big move. We are seeing charting signals everywhere (for example descending wedge on this pair although it could still go for a few days), and lots of traders are commenting to me they are looking for a signal to go long!

Are we in for a bear market retracement for currencies against the USD?

My own strategy is sounding alarm bells as the moving averages for this pair begin to bunch together on the daily and hourly. Even the bollinger bands are starting to look like they want to move with the wedge lines.


----------



## Stormin_Norman

im a USD bear. i think their currency could be up for a large scale tank if the bond bubble bursts.


----------



## Wysiwyg

sinner said:


> *We are seeing charting signals everywhere *(for example descending wedge on this pair although it could still go for a few days), *and lots of **traders are commenting to me they are looking for a signal to go long*!




Is that at Xaviers School for Gifted Traders. :


----------



## Whiskers

Yes, I'm with the USD bears too.

I'm still leaning towards the diagonal impulse count, but have not dismissed the corrective ABC yet though. I seems to me that both scenerios are going north for some time yet. 

I'll only be considering the 50's if 7547 is breached to invalidate the diagonal impulse count.

Hope to get a clearer picture as we get nearer... but if it peaks below 7547 both scenerios are still in play and it's time for closer evaluation.

But in the meantime I'm thinking 73ish should be a pretty safe bet.

PS: I'm still curious to see the minor wave count of the B wave (my 4) in the corrective scenerio. The corrective count charts I've seen show the B at the low (my minor 3). Damned if I can figure that.


----------



## Whiskers

My minor counts are close to a minor 'i' on the above chart... took profit at 6539.

My next lower count has 6582 as max for 'i' and been pretty range bound the last half hour or so while I've been trying to decide whether it's already there or is gonna have another little push up.

PS: Was thinking of going short the retracement and going long again around 65 or slightly under... but literally caught in two minds in the middle atm... but with it just starting to chop a bit and dancing pretty close to the tune of the AUD/JPY lately and I'm getting sell signals off that as well... humm... !


----------



## Whiskers

Geesus... what a hectic night. By the time I considered any alternative counts the action dismissed them.

Ended up concluding a larger zig zag correction to test 64.


----------



## Whiskers

Well... make that an ABC expanded Flat... but anyway, it breached 64. 

Been out doing other things, just come in and looking to go long again... the Euro looks like probably bottomed for now, but the AUD seems to be dancing closer to the tune of JPY lately and I'm not sure it's bottomed yet.

Twiddle de, twiddle dum...


----------



## Whiskers

Here it goes... coming back for a third look at 6380.

The JPY still hasn't settled... might go a touch below 6380 yet, but not a lot of room to play with. If 6330 goes I'm back to the drawing board.


----------



## Phillip

Getting to a level where the AUD is becoming an attractive risk/reward play here. The Aussie is pinned against the RBA and at what stage the monetary easing cycle is currently at. The daily is trading in a large wedge where supply/demand is jostling for power; a decent move could be somewhat imminent. The Interbank market has already priced in a 25 basis cut and gunning for 50. If the RBA cuts 50 basis points on Tuesday I think more downside is to come. Probably .6250 as first stop, then .6075 if things deteriorate further. Hard to see it breaking below that wedge though.


----------



## noirua

Stormin_Norman said:


> im a USD bear. i think their currency could be up for a large scale tank if the bond bubble bursts.



Will the Aussie tank be even greater though?


----------



## fapturbo

noirua said:


> Will the Aussie tank be even greater though?




What happens will largely depend on what happens to the DJIA.

As more and more money leaves equities more and more money will go to Government Bonds, pushing more money into USD.

Like Stormin said when the Treasury Bond Bursts, then we will see some real big moves I suspect.

Trend is down, no point trying to pick a bottom, follow the overall trend. Sell the rallies...


----------



## Iron Man

Hi people

I am a nebbie in Forex so new that I haven't even traded it yet.

Whats the best platform to trade with and does Forex behave well like shares or is it all over place?.

Cheers 

IronMan


----------



## Iron Man

lol NEWBIE


----------



## CanOz

Iron Man said:


> lol NEWBIE




At least you can laugh at yourself mate! Well done.

Go to http://fxtrade.oanda.com/forex_trading/fxgame/fxgame_beta.shtml

This is Oanda's GX Game. Have play with this and then come back a week later.

See what the highest % profit you can make with the Game is in one week.

Theres heaps of info here on FX, drop by other threads for specific ideas or answers to questions.

Have fun mate.

CanOz


----------



## CanOz

fapturbo said:


> Potentially 0.5250 is not out of the question, give the current pattern that is forming...




I reckon this scenario is not out of the question you know....its not real encouraging price action for AUD bulls, thats for sure.

Cheers,


CanOz


----------



## fapturbo

Downleg is starting.

Next Stop is 0.60c ish


----------



## noirua

fapturbo said:


> Downleg is starting.
> 
> Next Stop is 0.60c ish



Yes, 63.1c (inverse AU$1.587) to AU$1.


----------



## BentRod

They are buying it all the way down too.

RBA will most likely intervene at 62.50 if it gets there.


----------



## Glen48

What hope do you have when USA got us into this mess and the USD is the winner......for awhile anyway.


----------



## caribean

Glen48 said:


> What hope do you have when USA got us into this mess and the USD is the winner......for awhile anyway.




Things will turn around again soon enough, Oil will go up, Usd will go down, and even equities will stabilise...just don't ask me when


----------



## Stormin_Norman

caribean said:


> Things will turn around again soon enough, Oil will go up, Usd will go down, and even equities will stabilise...just don't ask me when




markets need sign posts. itd make it a lot easier to make money :


----------



## caribean

Stormin_Norman said:


> markets need sign posts. itd make it a lot easier to make money :



Yes for sure!! 
seriously though, trading intraday makes longer term predictions, almost, unimportant, we trade what we see.


----------



## Glen48

I would be happy with a Red and green light and lots of U turns.


----------



## Phillip

Phillip said:


> Getting to a level where the AUD is becoming an attractive risk/reward play here. The Aussie is pinned against the RBA and at what stage the monetary easing cycle is currently at. The daily is trading in a large wedge where supply/demand is jostling for power; a decent move could be somewhat imminent. The Interbank market has already priced in a 25 basis cut and gunning for 50. If the RBA cuts 50 basis points on Tuesday I think more downside is to come. Probably .6250 as first stop, then .6075 if things deteriorate further. Hard to see it breaking below that wedge though.





At the risk of sounding a know-it-all. I just want to point out that fundamentals play a huge part in currencies even though all technical indicators point to the opposite direction. The RBA didn't cut.. this is astonishing and traders out there can not come to grips with it, in my view it should rally for at least two days, so watch the pullbacks.


----------



## CanOz

Phillip said:


> At the risk of sounding a know-it-all. I just want to point out that fundamentals play a huge part in currencies even though all technical indicators point to the opposite direction. The RBA didn't cut.. this is astonishing and traders out there can not come to grips with it, in my view it should rally for at least two days, so watch the pullbacks.




Hmmm, depends on what the traders are using to trade it, my system picked up the trade and a few others this morning. The AUD trade was active before the announcement. This system is currently testing on the simulator, so don't get too excited, its not real money folks.

Trailing stop following up nicely, hope it survives the next open.

Cheers,


CanOz


----------



## Stormin_Norman

that a manual system? or are u coding in OandA's autotrader language?


----------



## CanOz

Stormin_Norman said:


> that a manual system? or are u coding in OandA's autotrader language?




Manual, taking the signals as they appear until we can forward test it on Amibroker. I might be trading it like this for a few months yet.

Cheers,


CanOz


----------



## Page

Short term (Intraday)

0,6411. AUD USD broke 0, 6350 resistance. The volatility rises. Bollinger bands are deviated. Forex Trend 4H, daily is in a bearish pattern. 1H Modified Stochastic indicates a bullish force on AUD USD. The price should carry on moving in 0, 6300 / 0, 6450 range.
We will not obtain a position. There is no trade pattern.

Resistances
0,6450 - 0,6550

Supports
0,6365 - 0,6300


----------



## Stormin_Norman

Page said:


> Short term (Intraday)
> 
> 0,6411. AUD USD broke 0, 6350 resistance. The volatility rises. Bollinger bands are deviated. Forex Trend 4H, daily is in a bearish pattern. 1H Modified Stochastic indicates a bullish force on AUD USD. The price should carry on moving in 0, 6300 / 0, 6450 range.
> We will not obtain a position. There is no trade pattern.
> 
> Resistances
> 0,6450 - 0,6550
> 
> Supports
> 0,6365 - 0,6300




reference = mataf?


----------



## BentRod

Stormin_Norman said:


> reference = mataf?




Sure looks like it Norm.

Along with every single post he has made, its all copy and pasted without source.


----------



## Stormin_Norman

im quite proud of myself picking that out actually.

ill give myself a beer.


----------



## CanOz

Struth! I f you don't like the price action ,wait a minute

Must be the GDP ann? Rate negative i take it?

Interesting times indeed.

CanOz


----------



## Stormin_Norman

-0,5%


----------



## Aussiejeff

Stormin_Norman said:


> -0,5%




At long last - a flamin' economic reality check. 

Let's see KruddBank 'n Co. talk this one up....


----------



## Stormin_Norman

its only going to get worse with these jokers giving bogans tens of billions of public money.


----------



## alphatraderx

Shorted AUDUSD at 0.7030
Stop level at 0.7120
Target level at 0.6943


----------



## sinner

alphatraderx said:


> Shorted AUDUSD at 0.7030
> Stop level at 0.7120
> Target level at 0.6943




Hi alphatraderx, please correct me if I'm wrong but this looks like at best a 1Risk(90):1Reward(87) trade.

These are the same odds as taking your money to the casino and betting it all on black.

Why do you expect people to pay for your "advice" on such trades?

Surely I am either mistaken or you are kidding.


----------



## Stormin_Norman

it did come through.

if expectancy is higher then risk the method can be ok.


----------



## sinner

Fair enough, guess he wasn't asking anyone to take the trade, was just posting his position.

I was a bit surprised is all, because I took a similar trade 15 minutes prior to alphatraderxs post based on bearish divergence on the 15m stochastic plus a "hunch" that the same news spike which played out across a bunch of currencies wouldn't hold for long. 

My Risk:Reward was 1:2.25 and got it all too. Sorry alpha if I discouraged you, I could never take such a trade myself, maybe I'm just jealous


----------



## i_in

to take a short position in this trend 
I just sounds my ridiculous
gl&gt


----------



## sinner

A healthy trend will always pull back a little before the next leg up 

If the signal pops up, and looks good, why not take it?


----------



## i_in

the trend is up
I think it is better to wait and to take in the right direction
matter of MM


----------



## SoBadAtTrading

Trend is up on the hourly. May retest the 70.5c resistance.


----------



## Underpants Gnome

Anyone else short on this? I got in at .7040, it's seen a fair bit of reaction in the past. Targeting the previous drop down to ~.6060. I'm a complete n00b though so we'll probably see it hit .71+ soon


----------



## Underpants Gnome

Well, as predicted we've gone up over .71! My 60 pip target (.6977) was missed by 2 pips. If I wasn't on a limited risk account with IG I probably would have made it, because the guaranteed stops add 3 pips to the spread so my entry was .7037 instead of .704, but it was still close anyway. So my 20-pip trailing stop was hit and I closed at .7017 for a 1R profit instead.

Immediate next point of resistance appears to be ~.7160.


----------



## AbundantIncome

so what is the story with AUDUSD ? ... been rising rapidly and now in the decline ???

my daily chart and 4 hourly chart seem to indicate an uprising event ! 

what's your chart telling us ?


----------



## white_goodman

the daily had a pretty obvious pin... im short


----------



## AbundantIncome

white_goodman said:


> the daily had a pretty obvious pin... im short




pin ???


----------



## white_goodman

AbundantIncome said:


> pin ???




yeh heres a pretty crude chart i got online....

its plain to see, some call it an evening star/pin...


----------



## AbundantIncome

white_goodman said:


> yeh heres a pretty crude chart i got online....
> 
> its plain to see, some call it an evening star/pin...




i see, i do not understand the significance i guess ... 

i tend to follow very simple patterns .. too much i find myself cannot get in or get out 

thanks for pointing that out though


----------



## Stormin_Norman

buyers were looking to push it up. heavy selling pushed it back down again.

who'll win the battle?


----------



## white_goodman

Stormin_Norman said:


> buyers were looking to push it up. heavy selling pushed it back down again.
> 
> who'll win the battle?




if anything its a sign that the current up-move will halt and move sideways or downwards, look for other bearish PA to confirm


----------



## MrWhite

I've just jumped out at lunch time, looks like a flat day.


----------



## Mr J

i_in said:


> the trend is up
> I think it is better to wait and to take in the right direction
> matter of MM




A pullback for one is a trend for another .


----------



## AbundantIncome

my daily chart still gives me a great positive uptrend ... may not be a strong one though still positive ..., 4 hourly still gives positive signal ... even the five minutes chart is looking to test the upside so ...  

anybody has a good indication on the best pips to take loss on without being whipped by the swing then moved into your direction again ???

any research on this ???

my stop loss strategy is kinda whimsy at the moment, first the system like IB does not seem to work. I put a stop loss, but the pair has been exceeded and still no sign of being executed !!!

i like the idea of trailing stop loss to move up against the profit movement, but again not sure in real life how practical it is .. sometimes a great idea is not that practical in real life ...


----------



## >Apocalypto<

Mr J said:


> A pullback for one is a trend for another .




very well said, oh so true.


----------



## >Apocalypto<

AUD 1 hour

with the positive divergence on the MACD and the price bouncing off the nominal line (blue center line) looking for the price to continue higher to .7320 - .7340. with a turn around to the nominal line.

the top two lines are the target area for a short position if the price does reach these two extremes. 

cheers,


----------



## Apollo_kk

Apocolypto

Looks like 733 is holding so I reckon that we are looking at a move down to 728.


----------



## Forex Journal

*AUD/USD Outlook*

AUD/USD – The market continues to chop around within a very broad 0.6000-0.7400 range dating back to October 2008. Despite the recent strength and break to fresh 2009 highs, the overall structure remains grossly bearish and given the proximity to the range highs, we like the idea of looking for opportunities to be short in anticipation of retest of the range lows at minimum. A break back below 0.7000 should help to accelerate declines and confirm bearish resumption. Strategy: SIDELINED; AWAIT CLEARER SIGNAL.


----------



## Dowdy

Forex Journal, where did you get that info from?

I'm new to the forex game and i want to try and find a website that shows analysis like the one you posted


----------



## i_in

Dowdy said:


> Forex Journal, where did you get that info from?
> 
> I'm new to the forex game and i want to try and find a website that shows analysis like the one you posted




hey Dowdy
don't be fooled, this one is not analysis, this is just a synopsis! what you think to do with it?!


----------



## Stormin_Norman

Dowdy said:


> Forex Journal, where did you get that info from?
> 
> I'm new to the forex game and i want to try and find a website that shows analysis like the one you posted




try here: https://www.thelfb-forex.com/


----------



## MrWhite

Did anyone ride the jump today when unemployment was announced.

I got the RBA's decision Tuesday, but not today's.


----------



## adamj123

MrWhite said:


> Did anyone ride the jump today when unemployment was announced.
> 
> I got the RBA's decision Tuesday, but not today's.




Yes, but I rode it the wrong way


----------



## MrWhite

Did you sell before the announcement, expecting it to go down? Or just misinterpret the news?

Just curious as I always wait for the release, scan it quickly and then choose an action.

I am just curious if others read the media buzz and jump before the announcement.


----------



## Stormin_Norman

i sold on rumour, and got out on the news (or just before it).

my system gave me trades going down, so i took them. i dont usually trade news, been burnt too badly in the past- i just stick to my system.


----------



## AbundantIncome

how are we going with this ?

down a fair bit now ... is it up time ??? :d


----------



## AbundantIncome

AbundantIncome said:


> how are we going with this ?
> 
> down a fair bit now ... is it up time ??? :d




up and down up and down . show some trend already


----------



## Underpants Gnome

AbundantIncome said:


> up and down up and down . show some trend already




What time frame are you looking at? If you look at the daily or hourly charts I'd say there's been a fairly strong uptrend since early March.


----------



## AbundantIncome

Underpants Gnome said:


> What time frame are you looking at? If you look at the daily or hourly charts I'd say there's been a fairly strong uptrend since early March.




I am looking at 5 minutes and one hour and i play short term only .. thanks :d

I am a little impatient looking at too long time :d


----------



## MrWhite

20 pips of movement today on the 5 minute average if you are day trading.

There was a nice drop from 76.04 to 75.70 about 14:30 that has swung up and down since.

Flat on anything longer term though.


----------



## AbundantIncome

MrWhite said:


> 20 pips of movement today on the 5 minute average if you are day trading.
> 
> There was a nice drop from 76.04 to 75.70 about 14:30 that has swung up and down since.
> 
> Flat on anything longer term though.




I am pretty new to this and am nervous trader so I cannot do swing trading as yet :d

so, what is the chart telling us today ? has the oversold come to an end for AUD/USD ?

some upside movement but seems to be quite a nervous one :d

any news on usa economy ???


----------



## Wysiwyg

Anyone get shafted by that gap down on this pair? Went past my long trades stop and I had a crash and burn instantly. I got the hex on me, now I know for sure.


----------



## Wysiwyg

Wysiwyg said:


> Anyone get shafted by that gap down on this pair? Went past my long trades stop and I had a crash and burn instantly. I got the hex on me, now I know for sure.





That`s it. They closed the long trades at about 100 pips down and wiped out my small account. 12 pip initial stop loss but not guaranteed. Should have been short. Life is crappy.


----------



## Largesse

thats **** house 

i was going to a movie and took profits on my 4 short contracts about 5 minutes before it gapped down. best part of 7 grand missed


----------



## Naked shorts

Largesse said:


> thats **** house
> 
> i was going to a movie and took profits on my 4 short contracts about 5 minutes before it gapped down. best part of 7 grand missed




lol, should have placed a trailing stop ey!

btw, at least you were short..i was long.


----------



## Largesse

Naked shorts said:


> lol, should have placed a trailing stop ey!
> 
> btw, at least you were short..i was long.




IG markets and trailing stop just don't work well together i've found  

sorry to hear about your long... got roasted


----------



## Largesse

Largesse said:


> IG markets and trailing stop just don't work well together i've found
> 
> sorry to hear about your long... got roasted




further to this,

at least new terminator movie was worth it 

so much man love for christian bale


----------



## Naked shorts

Largesse said:


> further to this,
> 
> at least new terminator movie was worth it
> 
> so much man love for christian bale




Didnt get too roasted, was partly hedged.


I wasn't originally going to see it, but seeing you liked it, i will.

Check out on youtube, christian bale going nuts on Terminator film set
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=zuJCGGTPY5w&feature=related

I should also add that his acting in American Psycho is some of the best I have seen.


----------



## Wysiwyg

Largesse said:


> thats **** house
> 
> i was going to a movie and took profits on my 4 short contracts about 5 minutes before it gapped down. best part of 7 grand missed




Would have been a nice pick-up for an extra 30 minute hold.

There are probably thousands of similar stories to ours. I too was short a few times in the preceding hour. Didn`t tank when I had them though.


----------



## James Austin

apologies for this basic question, but what are the best hours for trading (day trading) AUDUSD?

 and, if its through the aussie night, what hours are best for during aussie day time?

 thanks

 JA


----------



## lasty

James Austin said:


> apologies for this basic question, but what are the best hours for trading (day trading) AUDUSD?
> 
> and, if its through the aussie night, what hours are best for during aussie day time?
> 
> thanks
> 
> JA




What are you trying to achieve?

AUD is fairly liquid from say 7.00am Sydney time until the end of London close.
You then encounter issues until when Sydney open again.
NY can be very illiquid once London goes home.


----------



## James Austin

i want to find some FX pairs to trade during aussie day time
thinking about: audusd, audus, cadus




lasty said:


> What are you trying to achieve?
> 
> AUD is fairly liquid from say 7.00am Sydney time until the end of London close.
> You then encounter issues until when Sydney open again.
> NY can be very illiquid once London goes home.


----------



## lasty

James Austin said:


> i want to find some FX pairs to trade during aussie day time
> thinking about: audusd, audus, cadus




Ok
Well AUD/USD is a recognised traded currency pair, so is AUD/JPY and AUD/NZD
The reason being is that actual high volume of trading (export/imports) take place and there are price makers in those crosses which means liquidity.
Now AUD/CAD,AUD/EUR,AUD/GBP are currency pairs but are really synthetic pricing.

So AUD/JPY and AUD/NZD in Aussie day time will keep you occupied and the economic data from NZ and Japan is reported in our trading hours which is a bonus.

I always question people who trade EUR, GBP, CHF for example when the liquidity is thinner and the data doesnt come out in this timezone.


----------



## James Austin

thanks there lasty, seems there's some decent choice during aus day hrs, which works better for me.





lasty said:


> Ok
> Well AUD/USD is a recognised traded currency pair, so is AUD/JPY and AUD/NZD
> The reason being is that actual high volume of trading (export/imports) take place and there are price makers in those crosses which means liquidity.
> Now AUD/CAD,AUD/EUR,AUD/GBP are currency pairs but are really synthetic pricing.
> 
> So AUD/JPY and AUD/NZD in Aussie day time will keep you occupied and the economic data from NZ and Japan is reported in our trading hours which is a bonus.
> 
> I always question people who trade EUR, GBP, CHF for example when the liquidity is thinner and the data doesnt come out in this timezone.


----------



## solomon

Something big has just happened in the AUD/USD! Wow 83.3!


----------



## Qed

something happened early in the day .. went up all day . trick is how do u get on early enuf


----------



## Stormin_Norman

rba upbeat on economy and looking to raise interest rates.


----------



## acouch

aud fut..in a nice uptrend..
ac


----------



## >Apocalypto<

acouch said:


> aud fut..in a nice uptrend..
> ac




HUH?

what time frame price on spot is making lower highs and lows


----------



## Mr J

Looks like 4hr.


----------



## Tradesurfer

Thought I'd post the link to a map overlay of when various market centers are open and liquidity. Its a broad representation so doesn't help with say a particular currency (AUD/NZD) and best times for that but thought it might be helpful- it is listed in Eastern Time(New York) so you'll have to do the conversion

http://www.gftforex.com/forex/forex-trading-hours.asp


----------



## Lachlan6

Despite a number of analysts talking up the prospects of the AUD/USD, alluding to a recovery in resources and base metals and a slowly increasing risk appetite, one look at the Elliott Wave form is shouting out an opposing view. I expect the currency will now collapse, with a medium term target back down at 
$0.60. 

A look at the daily chart displaying the last three years, clearly displays a strong five-wave impulse off the highs of around $0.98. This move took around three months, yet the following correction back up has only retraced about 61.8% and has taken over three times longer. This is a three-wave correction, which in my view walked the last steps last week. Within the larger wave c, we can see a clear five-wave move and on the hourly chart, the currency looks as though it is now giving up the ghost. I expect a five-wave impulse to take hold early next week and to me this will be enough evidence to say that the AUD/USD is now heading south with a vengeance once again.

I am preparing for a short trade placing my initial stop just above the high on the 13th of August and my medium term target is down at $0.60.


----------



## Wysiwyg

I heard Rob Prechter from Elliot Wave International on Bloomberg this morning say the USD is likely for a run.


----------



## Wysiwyg

Wysiwyg said:


> I heard Rob Prechter from Elliot Wave International on Bloomberg this morning say the USD is likely for a run.



Right so far. AUD/USD down 100 pips since then and 82c support for a while. Pair following the DOW though so nothing unusual here.


----------



## white_goodman

this is where the smart money is setting up....

blue = commercials, they say south....


----------



## Naked shorts

white_goodman said:


> this is where the smart money is setting up....
> 
> blue = commercials, they say south....



Just wait for the commercials stop loss run


----------



## Mr J

Interesting chart, but how did you get that data and how reliable is it?

Edit: okay, "Commitment of Traders" reports. Never even knew they existed, I'll have to take a look at them.


----------



## Trembling Hand

white_goodman said:


> this is where the smart money is setting up....
> 
> blue = commercials, they say south....




You sure you know who the commercials are?


----------



## white_goodman

Naked shorts said:


> Just wait for the commercials stop loss run




yeh not always the greatest timing 'indicator'


----------



## white_goodman

Trembling Hand said:


> You sure you know who the commercials are?




like hedgers'n'shi.t


----------



## Oromis

My bias is currently south on this pair and in a short atm.


----------



## Mr J

Interesting point we're at, same with the Euro.


----------



## cashflow_08

Resistance become support, now pushing the price higher after several retest on the new inclined support.
Strong indications of long.


----------



## i_in

so, for the last, up or down. i read recently some folks buy usd for long time :dunno:


----------



## cashflow_08

In my opinion, we are still up (long). This may be a slight retracement down before bouncing up. T/p is what im not sure about. Im long now, so i would take profit near the nearest s/r which is 70 pips away from now.  s/l= 53 pips (last HL). Get in quick and get out quick. lol


----------



## cashflow_08

Aussie potential to move 0.90300 ?


----------



## GMS

Good Afternoon,

please find below my daily spot AUD analysis, based on market profile and cap flow charting.

Cheers.

The Australian Dollar rotated higher to key level 0.8758 early in the overnight session. Responsive selling at this level rejected the advance taking the market back inside the established development for the remainder of the session.

Today the market triggered an initiating buy tail of 0.8739 which was the previous session point of control. The market distributed higher where a responsive selling capped the advance, and is developing in a range mid 0.8740's to 0.8772.

A continuation of the distribution higher opens to resistance at 0.8814/20 and 0.8875. Initial support is at 0.8739 the commencement of the initiating buy tail today, then 0.8689 and mid 0.8650’s.

Have a good night.




Aliom Pty Limited (ACN 123 876 291 AFSL 323182) does not warrant the accuracy, completeness or correctness of any information herein. In preparing this post, Aliom Pty Limited has not taken into account the investment objectives, financial situation or particular needs of any particular person. Before making an investment decision on the basis of information in this post you should consider whether the information is appropriate in light of your particular investment objectives, financial situation or particular needs. You may wish to consult a licenced advisor or accountant to assist your decision.


----------



## AUDForex

Hi,
AUD keeps on grow versus U.S. currency. Probably it will stop after G7. 
This meeting is going to discuss about euro strongness and currency related topics.
Thanx


----------



## waz

Im surprised at how the Au$ is going up against every currency except the long loved carry currency the Yen.
A few months ago the moves against the Yen and Us$ were almost the same, however in the last month we are now at 89.4us cents, yet only 78.7 Yen

Ive now used this as a pair trade, short on the us$ and long with the Yen.
I plan to hold my Yen trade over a few weeks, will most likely close my us$ trade in the next few days, assuming it goes back down to around 88c. 
Im only going to short for a 1 cent gain. My long term view is that the Us$ will continue to fall.


Im also assuming that a high Yen will not be liked by Japenese exporters. Well thats also the case for any country's exporters.


----------



## waz

Hoorah

So I made a profit on my long with the Yen, however am still at a loss with my short on the US$.

I cant post a pic now, however it looks like after hitting 89.5 we now have a heads and shoulder formation. It has hit the resistance level (which since breaking through has become the support) of 88.7 now 3 times in the last 48 hours.

Im assuming that unless gold and other commodities can go any higher, it should break 88.7 and possibly fall as low as 88 by the end of week.

I got in at 89c, Im starting to think I should have waited to get in at 89.5 and possibly 90.

Anyone else want put some analysis up??
This tread has become very quiet lately. I would have thought trading the Au$ would have been the easiest way for anyone us to make money the next few months.


----------



## lasty

"This tread has become very quiet lately. I would have thought trading the Au$ would have been the easiest way for anyone us to make money the next few months."

I agree with that comment however its fairly obvious that many out there try and make things too complex for themselves.
Cant see the woods for the trees comes to mind.

Good luck and happy hunting.


----------



## Mr J

Fun times! Sure regret missing the test of the longterm trendline at 86c, I'm sure someone here got it.


----------



## waz

Yup, not only has it passed 90c, it went as high as 90.15

Doh, I gt in too early.

I had a feeling the unemployment numbers would come in better than expected, however wouldnt the world have already known that after the rate rise.


----------



## Mr J

IB data has it as near instantaneous. Only way I would've been in that is at the test of the trendline on the daily, but that of course had to occur late on a friday night . Pulled the Euro up a little too.


----------



## cashflow_08

cashflow_08 said:


> Aussie potential to move 0.90300 ?




nice long. Got around  300 +++ pipiz


----------



## waz

Great work cashflow

I was hoping to see it fall to 88c by the end of the week.
Ive now given up on that and will get out where I got in at 89c.
Im not confident of it even falling to 88.7

DOH, so not only did I not make any money off this trade, I've had to pay interest. 

Besides your 300 pips, you also earned some nice interest.

From now on till the rest of the year Im only going long on the dips on this pair.


----------



## cashflow_08

Hi Waz,

Its good not to go counter-trend when trend is strong long. As the gurus say " go with the trend". If the longer term such as 4hr and daily say long, then only bias long on scalping shorter t/fs. The success of trading with the trend is the risk - reward ratio 1:2 or higher. 
These days i stay away from countertrades bcoz    lol

Below Im describing a chart of A/U 4hr where you guys can see the trend is now at a exhaution level so i took my t/p there and waiting for a break form the blue incline line. If no break then i'll wait for another long IF it makes one.


----------



## Stormin_Norman

nice indicator down the bottom


----------



## pj2105

*AUD - Australian Dollar rises again*

The AUD has now hit .93 to the US Dollar, how high can this thing go?
I told my wife and she is booking a holiday to Hawaii!  When we went to the US back in 2000 we had to double the store price to figure out who much we were paying in Australian Dollars, now it is nearly a dollar for dollar.


----------



## skyQuake

Parity here we comeee


----------



## arco

.
The Ichimoku Weekly chart has given great entries both short and long over the last 15 months. 

There may be some potential for hesitation in the grey box zone IMO.

GTA - arco


----------



## cashflow_08

Great chart. 
I guess we all should go for a holiday in hawaii for stress relief


----------



## legoman

skyQuake said:


> Parity here we comeee




Parity is great, except when you have a few grand tied up in the US until mid next year, at which time you'll be bringing it back at a 20% discount!


----------



## arco

Aussie looking interesting for a short - 4 Ichi elements in place on H1 plus potential H&S.




GTA - arco


----------



## cashflow_08

My Analysis agreeing with Arcos. There seems to be break of the triangle, might for short-term tomorow or tuesday reach the H/S support (bottom white flat line)

Cheers


----------



## Aargh!

legoman said:


> Parity is great, except when you have a few grand tied up in the US until mid next year, at which time you'll be bringing it back at a 20% discount!




Not so great when you get paid in US dollars, 30% pay cut this year and counting!


----------



## DAZT49

cashflow,
I cant work out the time from on your chart, is that hourly,30 m in, 10 min??


----------



## cashflow_08

Hi Daz,

Sorry i didnt mentioned in the earlier post.  Its a 4hr chart


----------



## carlos233

Hello...I  am new to the forum and to the FX market. I have traded the
forex market especially (aud/usd)for the last 7 months after switching from stocks.
Just wanted to introduce myself.....cheers.


----------



## Miro

Aussie Dollar hit 0.91287 overnight, now at 0.915 ... seems like a bargain at these levels


----------



## lasty

Miro said:


> Aussie Dollar hit 0.91287 overnight, now at 0.915 ... seems like a bargain at these levels[/QUOTE
> 
> I would take a deep breath right now rather than buying the dips at this point.
> I smell a correction in the wind.
> Right now the tide is on the turn.  Equities, commodities and FX seem to be showing a stall.
> The waters can get murky when the tide turns.
> Its one of those days when you sit on your hands and do nothing.


----------



## cashflow_08

Probably be more than a short retracement or correction as theres evidence in four and daily that a reversal MAY be taking place as seen in my last post.


----------



## lasty

cashflow_08 said:


> Probably be more than a short retracement or correction as theres evidence in four and daily that a reversal MAY be taking place as seen in my last post.




Well certainly for the short term punters, I can sense a correction developing and thats not the use of charts, so your technical analysis and my gut seem to be aligned.
How far can we pullback?
Perhaps 5 pct Im thinking but the uptrend is still intact and there will no doubt be buyers on dips so when we get into this zone expect whippy sessions ahead.
Good hunting Cashflow..  nice call..


----------



## arco

arco said:


> Aussie looking interesting for a short - 4 Ichi elements in place on H1 plus potential H&S.
> 
> GTA - arco




Result


----------



## Mr J

Miro said:


> Aussie Dollar hit 0.91287 overnight, now at 0.915 ... *seems like a bargain at these levels*




No offense, but when someone thinks that I think sell. Whenever I hear 'bargain', I think of someone trying to pick bottoms, or buying off a small retracement near the top and being the last to leave the party.



> Its one of those days when you sit on your hands and do nothing.




There's plenty to do while we're waiting for medium to longterm movement.



> Right now the tide is on the turn. Equities, commodities and FX seem to be showing a stall.




It does seem the stars are aligning for at least a retracement. Resistance and failure everywhere, and of course we've had a strong month, and a strong overall rally. Seems as good a time as any for nature to do its thing.


----------



## Miro

Mr J said:


> No offense, but when someone thinks that I think sell. Whenever I hear 'bargain', I think of someone trying to pick bottoms, or buying off a small retracement near the top and being the last to leave the party.




haha true, I had a good stop loss and I've actually made money today ... but that's been all luck. I've still got heaps to learn.


----------



## Mr J

Nothing personal, it's just what "looks a bargain" reminds me of. I just imagine people chatting around the office water cooler about stocks, only for the market to reverse soon afterwards .


----------



## Miro

Mr J said:


> Nothing personal, it's just what "looks a bargain" reminds me of. I just imagine people chatting around the office water cooler about stocks, only for the market to reverse soon afterwards .




I will never use that phrase again


----------



## DAZT49

I am a bit confused, if the reserve bank raises interest rates next week as people think, will that send our AUD up or down?
If it is up I would have thought it would have a lot more support than it has atm, even taking into account the lift in USD.


----------



## lasty

DAZT49 said:


> I am a bit confused, if the reserve bank raises interest rates next week as people think, will that send our AUD up or down?
> If it is up I would have thought it would have a lot more support than it has atm, even taking into account the lift in USD.




It really depends however on the level of the currency come tuesday before the announcement.
The market has factored in 25 bp's increase.
If they dont raise the risk will be the downside.
If they raise 50bp's then expect a spike.

Personally I think the market is overbought so expect further profit taking of longs over the next several sessions.


.


----------



## caribean

lasty said:


> It really depends however on the level of the currency come tuesday before the announcement.
> The market has factored in 25 bp's increase.
> If they dont raise the risk will be the downside.
> If they raise 50bp's then expect a spike.
> 
> Personally I think the market is overbought so expect further profit taking of longs over the next several sessions.
> 
> 
> .



25 is the expectation or 50 ?
I thought i heard on the radio 50, could have been daydreaming at the time though


----------



## arco

.

Watching this potential H&S. Testing the neck line atm


----------



## Mr J

It tested it and failed before noon, so I'm not sure what you're watching .


----------



## el caballo

lasty said:


> Personally I think the market is overbought so expect further profit taking of longs over the next several sessions.
> 
> 
> .




Completely concur.


----------



## lusk

Looks like it's moving down to the daily trend line 8950-8900, if it gets down there l will "look for a bargain"


----------



## Mr J

lusk said:


> Looks like it's moving down to the daily trend line 8950-8900, if it gets down there l will "look for a bargain"




There will probably be something of a bounce off of it, regardless of where it goes next.


----------



## lasty

caribean said:


> 25 is the expectation or 50 ?
> I thought i heard on the radio 50, could have been daydreaming at the time though




Well the consensus is 25  which I think the market has factored in.
50 is the optimistic view and thats where you get the media alarmist going for a sensational grab.
Stick with pro's and dont listen to a disc jockey who's paid to spin vinyl


----------



## lasty

"Looks like it's moving down to the daily trend line 8950-8900, if it gets down there l will "look for a bargain".

Yes but a bargain for you or the seller?..Now thats going to be an interesting watch.. Good luck... My personal experience suggests, these are the trading sessions in a middle of a corrective phase when you become a charity worker..
Becareful and be lucky.


----------



## Frank D

Lasty,

the line of least resistance on the AUD is down into 86.85.

Personally I wouldn't be trading longs on AUD until next week.
 Let the Week run it's course, and at this stage it's down.

You might find short-term intra-day reversals, but there's a market path of 
a downward trend.

currencies a very closely aligned with US equity markets.

_"I'm basing my total view on currencies based on the price action in US equity markets.

If Tuesday follows SET-UP A then currencies will drop considerably 
on Tuesday and over the next few days" *Monday 26th*_


----------



## lusk

lasty said:


> "Looks like it's moving down to the daily trend line 8950-8900, if it gets down there l will "look for a bargain".
> 
> Yes but a bargain for you or the seller?..Now thats going to be an interesting watch.. Good luck... My personal experience suggests, these are the trading sessions in a middle of a corrective phase when you become a charity worker..
> Becareful and be lucky.




As long as the trend is up buying on a retracement is a bargain to me, l will of course not be buying blindly will wait to see how it reacts at the trendline.

Its looking good at the moment.


----------



## lasty

lusk said:


> As long as the trend is up buying on a retracement is a bargain to me, l will of course not be buying blindly will wait to see how it reacts at the trendline.
> 
> Its looking good at the moment.





The old cliche "the trend is your friend" has proven itself yet again.


----------



## cashflow_08

A bit early to tell but shorter t/fs has started making supports which would be followed by higher t/fs later this week. But no confirmation as yet to buy as a few obstacles are present around 1hr to 4hr. What do you guys think?


----------



## Mr J

I'm not going to try and pick a top. The market will go where it wants, and I'll follow .


----------



## cashflow_08

yea. lol. market opened much lower  (confirmation didnt align up well.)
I guess just wait till market gives us a signal to jump in. : /


----------



## Mr J

Well, that open dropped the Euro below that beautiful trendline on the daily.


----------



## skyQuake

Down 100 and up 100 pips on the AUD/USD. Thank you RBA for making life fun lol


----------



## arco

Mr J said:


> It tested it and failed before noon, so I'm not sure what you're watching .




I was looking at a potential Head (H) and Shoulders (S), which eventually gave circa *+250 pips*.

*
ORIGINAL*






*RESULT*


----------



## Kryzz

If price doesn't stall and/or reverse around the .8773ish area, looks like there will be some lower highs put in, and the aussie dollar has had it's run imo, conversly i'm going to be going long if that beaut of a trendline is broken


----------



## Kryzz

Still holding long up about 140 pips thus far, moved stop right up as in a bit of a resistance zone at the moment, and a slight gap which didn't get filled entirely this morning


----------



## caribean

Kryzz said:


> Still holding long up about 140 pips thus far, moved stop right up as in a bit of a resistance zone at the moment, and a slight gap which didn't get filled entirely this morning



Nice TL play Shaun, congrats on the trade too.
We'll see if 9280ish provide enough resistance.


----------



## Kremmen

caribean said:


> We'll see if 9280ish provide enough resistance.



A minute ago, the midrate broke 93c. XE is giving it as .93016.

(I never trade currency positions. I just have some expenses in USD, so I watch closely when to transfer money.)


----------



## sinner

Hi guys,

Willing to risk 10 pips here to see if this bearish divergence plays out. Short from 0.9345 SL 0.9355


----------



## sinner

Hi guys,

Market has confirmed distribution, I have exited half the position at +10 to make a free trade (i.e. from 2 lots short with 10 pip SL I exit 1 of those at +10 so if the other is stopped out there is no effect on my balance).

See chart for levels/comments.


----------



## Tradesurfer

So the US fed in statement by the chairman indicates rates will stay low for a long time in US. Aussie rates got raised again- whats the near term ceiling 4.5%?

Aussie dollar seems like it has more room to run.

Question is- do you aussies think parity with the US dollar is a good thing? 

And does this mean you will be packing your bags for a trip to the US based on the exchange rate?

Just some random thoughts.

Seriously, the trend is still in place in the AUD/US and until a series of lower highs and lows present themselves, its an uptrend


----------



## lasty

"Question is- do you aussies think parity with the US dollar is a good thing?"

Its been there before and will most likely do it again.
Obviously when it does, there will be a national holiday.Rudd will say sorry to the Americans and blame it on the CO2 levels.


----------



## Miro

Tradesurfer said:


> Question is- do you aussies think parity with the US dollar is a good thing?




Every cent the AUD appreciates makes Australians richer. So yeah, it's definitely a good thing.

The question is whether the trend is sustainable or not ...


----------



## Aargh!

Miro said:


> Every cent the AUD appreciates makes Australians richer. So yeah, it's definitely a good thing.




Err, no it doesn't and it's not. What school of finance did you go to?
Have you heard of tourism, agricultural industry, manufacturing industry?


----------



## Nyden

Aargh! said:


> Err, no it doesn't and it's not. What school of finance did you go to?
> Have you heard of tourism, agricultural industry, manufacturing industry?




Ah, but if one does not rely on these industries, and makes a lot of US expenditures - it's joy-time


----------



## Miro

Aargh! said:


> Err, no it doesn't and it's not. What school of finance did you go to?
> Have you heard of tourism, agricultural industry, manufacturing industry?




I'm talking about people living in Australia. The more purchasing power you have the richer you are. No doubt high currency hurts commodity oriented industries and makes them less competitive in global markets.


----------



## SittingDuck

Living in Australia, I've noticed that prices are ratcheted.

When the AU dollar drops, imported goods prices go up.  When the AU dollar rises, prices stay the same.  It's the importers who benefit.

So AU up, importers win, exporter lose.  AU down, exporters win, importers raise prices to maintain costs and add more profit next AU rise.

So to finish, no purchasing power for every day aussies is not increased at all.

It's all these oligopolies.


----------



## Wysiwyg

nsefx said:


> try nsefx.com




Your advertising works in reverse using this approach and pretty soon a moderator will vapourise you.


----------



## arco

.
Picked up a great move on Aussie overnight with a move down to the Kumo below


----------



## buttonzhu

For the Friday, USD increased a lot because of the US gov announcment, but AUD is still showing strongly against other currencies.

I think AUD should still in the up trend in the next 30 days.


----------



## noirua

Markets have been put off by interest rate statements and the AUD is slipping against the USD. Could this be a good reason to switch or is it just a short term glitch?


----------



## white_goodman

noirua said:


> Markets have been put off by interest rate statements and the AUD is slipping against the USD. Could this be a good reason to switch or is it just a short term glitch?




wait for 89 to break I say, if and when it does ill be loading up


----------



## port_4

Hi there,
This may seem really simple but I am after a way to invest in $US for the long term... Is it as simple as going to the bank and changing money over or is there a better way it can be done?

Thanks


----------



## prawn_86

port_4 said:


> Hi there,
> This may seem really simple but I am after a way to invest in $US for the long term... Is it as simple as going to the bank and changing money over or is there a better way it can be done?
> 
> Thanks




Port, 

You can invest in what are called nostros accounts. Essentially you have an account (held in Aus) in USD and are paid the USD interest/savings rate. The money can then sit in that account as long as you want with no margin required. PM me if you want more details.


----------



## port_4

Thanks prawn... Appreciate the offer! Ill have a look into it!


----------



## Knoxy

Port,

You could open a forex trading account and sell the AUDUSD. It'd be preferrable to physically changing AUD into USD because of the leverage ie. you don't need to put up huge quantities of cash. 

With an AUDUSD short as the AUD drops against USD you'd make money in AUD terms. Problem with this approach is the interest rate differential, you'd be paying rollover charges based on 3.75% per annum at present. Wouldn't be a problem if the AUD falls by more than this. 

Historical average is in the 0.74 area, so from a really long term perspective, could be a rewasonable play.


----------



## prawn_86

Knoxy said:


> Port,
> 
> You could open a forex trading account and sell the AUDUSD. It'd be preferrable to physically changing AUD into USD because of the leverage ie. you don't need to put up huge quantities of cash.
> 
> With an AUDUSD short as the AUD drops against USD you'd make money in AUD terms. Problem with this approach is the interest rate differential, you'd be paying rollover charges based on 3.75% per annum at present. Wouldn't be a problem if the AUD falls by more than this.
> 
> Historical average is in the 0.74 area, so from a really long term perspective, could be a rewasonable play.




But then your opening yourself up to credit risk and the risk of a margin call, which may not be what some people are after, especially with a long term investment. Margins/leverage are generally more dangerous the longer you plan on holding.

If port has say a spare 100k laying around, and just wants it unleveraged in a USD denominated account, a nostros account is the way to go.


----------



## Knoxy

Fair enough and no doubt a good option depending on circumstances. 

If I had 100k and wanted to invest in USD, I'd think about 20k in a trading account, sell 1 lot AUDUSD then invest 80k in something else in Aus. With 20k in trading account margin call only happens at 20c above current rates (ie. 1.09) for 100:1. 

You could go very conservative and put 50k in the trading account. Remembering you'd be feeling equally sick at the margin call 1.39 if you'd exchanged the full amount to USD.


----------



## port_4

Thanks Knoxy... I might set up an account and not expose myself too much (as in not fully leveraged).
Do you have any suggestions as to which broker to use?

Much appreciated!


----------



## Knoxy

Port,

There are recommendations on this forum regarding brokers. I can only agree with others that the broker should be regulated by ASIC if local and by the US regulators if there. You need to be confident about the company and how they hold your funds. 

I use FXCM and have no issues with them. Originally I set up with them in the US, but the account transferred to FXCM Aus. I have USD and AUD accounts and feel comparatively safe as they're one of the largest fx brokers in the world. Also have a small account with Go Markets, trying them out.

Don't take what I say in earlier posts as trading recommendation. I trade a smallish account on short term trades, I don't invest long term.

Cheers.


----------



## port_4

Thanks Knoxy... Thought I might set it up that way before your advice anyway! No blame to you at all!


----------



## sinner

prawn_86 said:


> Port,
> 
> You can invest in what are called nostros accounts. Essentially you have an account (held in Aus) in USD and are paid the USD interest/savings rate. The money can then sit in that account as long as you want with no margin required. PM me if you want more details.




Hi prawn, do you know of any Australian nostros providers who can hold in Chinese Yuan?


----------



## prawn_86

sinner said:


> Hi prawn, do you know of any Australian nostros providers who can hold in Chinese Yuan?




Have sent you a PM


----------



## acouch

have just set up a rm on aud/usd for interest..maybe some would like to have a look on how ML work on everything 
ac 

ps hope they are in right sequence


----------



## noirua

I have moved about half of my AUD to USD over the last week. 
Some foreign investors may see the Aussie market as quite expensive when they look at prices in their own currency terms; news may not be good enough to take the AUD to par with the USD.


----------



## noirua

noirua said:


> I have moved about half of my AUD to USD over the last week.
> Some foreign investors may see the Aussie market as quite expensive when they look at prices in their own currency terms; news may not be good enough to take the AUD to par with the USD.




Still happy with my currency position as concerns amongst banks continue. Worldwide worry tends to attract people to the USD at present low levels for the greenback. I'm expecting the AUD to drift very slowly indeed and AUD1.15 to the USD1 to be reached during March.


----------



## acouch

*Re: AUD/USD road map*

aud/usd chart for those interested 

ac


----------



## acouch

*Re: AUD/USD Road Map*

morning
today's road map
ac


----------



## >Apocalypto<

*Re: AUD/USD Road Map*



acouch said:


> morning
> today's road map
> ac




Acouch you have joined team FX!!! welcome aboard! What happened to the spi???

depending on your Broker, the cable eurjpy and usdjpy are great for short term trading it's all I look at.... GBPJPY also good. (spread worse then EURJPY) if you like wild rides GBPAUD!!!! I fear that beast!


----------



## acouch

*Re: AUD/USD Road Map*



>Apocalypto< said:


> Acouch you have joined team FX!!! welcome aboard! What happened to the spi???




Hi apocalypto.

spi rm still going, just that i have set up the aud/usd. and thought it might be of some help
to fx traders 

:couch


----------



## ginar

*Re: AUD/USD Road Map*



acouch said:


> >Apocalypto< said:
> 
> 
> 
> Acouch you have joined team FX!!! welcome aboard! What happened to the spi???
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> Hi apocalypto.
> 
> spi rm still going, just that i have set up the aud/usd. and thought it might be of some help
> to fx traders
> 
> :couch
Click to expand...



Maybe you could give us (me) a rundown on how i can use that to trade that pair . pretty chart but its not telling me much without some sort of guidance on how to use it  ... appreciate any help to understand


----------



## noirua

noirua said:


> Still happy with my currency position as concerns amongst banks continue. Worldwide worry tends to attract people to the USD at present low levels for the greenback. I'm expecting the AUD to drift very slowly indeed and AUD1.15 to the USD1 to be reached during March.




It looks as if the USD may be one of the few currencies to hold now and I'm  75% in USD having moved from 50%. With stock markets wobbly - a bear market which recovered about half of its losses, and now going down across the board with occasional good days to fool us, me thinks - and falls in bond markets; the trend looks set.


----------



## acouch

*Re: AUD/USD Road Map*



ginar said:


> Maybe you could give us (me) a rundown on how i can use that to trade that pair . pretty chart but its not telling me much without some sort of guidance on how to use it  ... appreciate any help to understand




Hi ginar,

pretty simple really, the red line is the line in the sand (LIS) so above you are long,
below you are short..all nos are strong support and resistance nos, as they all stem from the llis..here is the aud/usd chart as it stands now coming into close..and you can see how nos support/resistance... i re do chart at 8.30 am
hope this helps in understanding the road map
ac 


p.s time frame is 10mins


----------



## acouch

morning all
today's aud/usd road map
have a great day, and good trades
ac


----------



## acouch

just a update how the aud/usd road map is looking so far
for those interested
ac


----------



## acouch

*Re: AUD/USD Road Map*

road map coming into close
ac


----------



## acouch

Monday's road map
have a great weekend and take care
ac


----------



## noirua

noirua said:


> It looks as if the USD may be one of the few currencies to hold now and I'm 75% in USD having moved from 50%. With stock markets wobbly - a bear market which recovered about half of its losses, and now going down across the board with occasional good days to fool us, me thinks - and falls in bond markets; the trend looks set.




The more I look at it, the AUD is more and more certain to sink in my mind. Little point holding the AUD at all in the short term - another thread to discuss the stockmarket position.


----------



## acouch

a look at the aus/usd road map progression today
ac


----------



## acouch

good morning all
today's road map
have a great day, and good trades
ac


----------



## acouch

good mornig all
today's road map
have a great day, and good trades
ac


----------



## white_goodman

This bitch going north hopefully


----------



## noirua

Interest rates left on hold weakened the AUD though signals are for a 0.25% increase next time, and I don't expect the AUD1.15 rate before March against the USD. Trading and growth in Europe and America are ongoing factors and thoughts that future winters may not be as bad across the pond.
BP's poorer than expected profits may also bear down on the AUD, even if interest rates point to 4.5% before years end.
At some point interest rates in America will push on up and that may well coincide with higher interest rates at the short-end both in Europe and the US.


----------



## acouch

morning,

road map updated  from yesterday morinng
coming into close
ac


----------



## qldfrog

on his area, is there an easy way to buy shares for medium term trading of USD/AUD;
not forex in a daily trading way.
I believe AUD is high vs USD now but will fall within 6 months, is there a way I can buy "ETF like" shares an the ASX (similar to GOLD for the commodity)?
And then forget them for 3 months....

I know I could go and buy US banknotes at CBA, but the fees/exchange rate are not making it worth...

Hope I am clear in my naive question


----------



## acouch

good morning all
today's road map
have a great day, and good trades
ac


----------



## lasty

qldfrog said:


> on his area, is there an easy way to buy shares for medium term trading of USD/AUD;
> not forex in a daily trading way.
> I believe AUD is high vs USD now but will fall within 6 months, is there a way I can buy "ETF like" shares an the ASX (similar to GOLD for the commodity)?
> And then forget them for 3 months....
> 
> I know I could go and buy US banknotes at CBA, but the fees/exchange rate are not making it worth...
> 
> Hope I am clear in my naive question




Try an out of the money put option for 6 months.
Say a strike at 70 cents.. It has to be cheap right ?


----------



## Trembling Hand

qldfrog said:


> on his area, is there an easy way to buy shares for medium term trading of USD/AUD;
> not forex in a daily trading way.
> I believe AUD is high vs USD now but will fall within 6 months, is there a way I can buy "ETF like" shares an the ASX (similar to GOLD for the commodity)?
> And then forget them for 3 months....
> 
> I know I could go and buy US banknotes at CBA, but the fees/exchange rate are not making it worth...
> 
> Hope I am clear in my naive question




Is there still AUD warrants on the ASX? I think back in the wild old west days (2000) there was.


----------



## Trembling Hand

http://www.asx.com.au/products/warrants/types/currency.htm
To answer my own question.


----------



## seremify

As another option, a lot of banks (e.g. Citibank) offer clients the ability to write options and sell them back to the bank. These are typically packed in a retail-friendly product which promises high interest rates dependent on the strike price for both short, medium and long terms.

I used to actively trade with Citibank for both FX and FX options (through their "Dual currency accounts") before moving into offshore margin trading. I found the returns to be quite low considering the level of risk but this is another option if you want a way to speculate on the FX market.


----------



## Trembling Hand

seremify said:


> As another option, a lot of banks (e.g. Citibank) offer clients the ability to write options and sell them back to the bank.




I bet they do. limited up side, unlimited down side. Perfect, for the bank.


----------



## skyQuake

Trembling Hand said:


> http://www.asx.com.au/products/warrants/types/currency.htm
> To answer my own question.




My god those are out of whack. The Macq structured prodcuts team are really doing their work!

http://www.nasdaq.com/aspxcontent/optionsWC.aspx?symbol=^XDA&qm_page=59843&qm_symbol=^XDA


----------



## noirua

noirua said:


> Interest rates left on hold weakened the AUD though signals are for a 0.25% increase next time, and I don't expect the AUD1.15 rate before March against the USD. Trading and growth in Europe and America are ongoing factors and thoughts that future winters may not be as bad across the pond.
> BP's poorer than expected profits may also bear down on the AUD, even if interest rates point to 4.5% before years end.
> At some point interest rates in America will push on up and that may well coincide with higher interest rates at the short-end both in Europe and the US.




Right, we're through AUD1.15 to the greenback at the double now, so much for March, and Ok for me after the FLX cash. Chance now to pay my CGT out of currency gains.  I've long thought that AUD1.35 is fair exchange rate agin the USD, and I hope we can get there, good for many of us. 

Stock markets are under pressure as profits are coming in, in the energy sector, below expectations. Masterly innaction, dare i say it again, the way to go now and written in stone, IMHO.


----------



## acouch

good morning all
today's road map
have a great day, and good trades
ac


----------



## Frank D

*USD Index and AUD/USD*

As pointed out a number of weeks ago, expectation USD Index would
 push upwards whilst the currencies will head the other way.

Support levels on AUD are matching February lows and Quarterly @ .8442

Whilst USD Index will begin to hit resistance levels.


----------



## acouch

updated audusd chart..eod ..

have fun


a:couch


----------



## acouch

Morning all,
Monday's road map
have a great weekend and take care
ac


----------



## noirua

Commodities are slumping in price as the US Dollar gets stronger by the week. This is likely to cause an exit of cash from Australia and the trend looks set for the next target of AUD1.20 to the USD1.
The first target of AUD1.15 came quicker than I thought but European woes weighed down on commodities in the last week or so. This trend is likely to remain.


----------



## noirua

An interesting week ahead as markets transfix themselves on the Euro Zone and the gathering storm of debt surrounding Greece, Spain and Portugal. The contagion is building and as in the property sector will spread and spread.

The US has an advantage here in that it has already crashed and not burned, but can we say the same of the Eurozone and we have not heard so much yet of the newer part of the Eastern Block of the Eurozone.

The USD looks as if it has a long way to go against the Euro and we need now to see how much that can continue to affect the AUD. The Aussie has been commodity driven and prices have tumbled, and some think stand on the brink. In this situation the AUD may have a longway to go in its downward path, perhaps through the whole of 2010 and 2011.


----------



## sinner

Hi guys,

Everyone is so bearish right now. None of you managed to predict the move properly last time - what makes you think you will get it right this time?

Weekly closes above 0.86 for this pair keep me bullish.


----------



## professor_frink

sinner said:


> Hi guys,
> 
> Everyone is so bearish right now. None of you managed to predict the move properly last time - what makes you think you will get it right this time?
> 
> Weekly closes above 0.86 for this pair keep me bullish.




Who exactly are you referring to here sinner?


----------



## acouch

updated audusd chart 

have a great evening
a:couch


----------



## Whiskers

acouch said:


> updated audusd chart
> 
> have a great evening
> a:couch




But what does it all mean!  

On my weekly chart, I originally thought it might fall a bit lower into the low 80's, but given what I think is a pretty much completed Flat correction, it may have bottomed and set to surge higher.

I'm working with a '1', '2' count atm, but equally it could be 'iii', 'iv' with my current 'iii' extending.


----------



## acouch

Whiskers said:


> But what does it all mean!
> 
> On my weekly chart, I originally thought it might fall a bit lower into the low 80's, but given what I think is a pretty much completed Flat correction, it may have bottomed and set to surge higher.
> 
> I'm working with a '1', '2' count atm, but equally it could be 'iii', 'iv' with my current 'iii' extending.




you use a weekly chart the one i post is a 24hr chart..which
is a 10min time frame,looks like you use elliot wave..as long as it works for you..great stuff..

my chart is very simple..above the red line you are long, 
below you are short..
all nos are strong support/resistance nos..

no brainer really..just trade what you see

have a great evening, 

ac


----------



## Whiskers

Thanks ac, that sounds easy enough. 

PS: I also trade the shorter time frames, but it seemed opportune to stick up the larger picture.


----------



## Whiskers

Looking for a pretty straight run up to 8750ish if my theory is correct.


----------



## Whiskers

Gwaud, wish I was trading it, but I'm only getting my detail eye in after a break. 

The 5 min shows a bit more detail.


----------



## noirua

The downward trend of the Aussie is well set now, IMHO. There will be some recovery phases as there always are when outside big trading influences come in to play or news arrives from America and more importantly Europe these days.
I have an interest in the AUD weakening against the USD but I wouldn't be in this position if I wasn't so certain of the trend.
Still, Xstrata sees a renewed commodity boom so the bulls of the AUD have a chance of coming right here.


----------



## acouch

good morning all
today's road map
have a great day, and good trades
ac


----------



## Broadway

acouch said:


> all nos are strong support/resistance nos..



just curious, so you enter as price moves away from your s/r, as long as it is with the MAs, and exit at the next s/r it hits? and trail stops? 

I imagine some of the moves away from your s/r 's are pretty fast, do you use stop entries ?

thx


----------



## acouch

Broadway said:


> just curious, so you enter as price moves away from your s/r, as long as it is with the MAs, and exit at the next s/r it hits? and trail stops?
> 
> I imagine some of the moves away from your s/r 's are pretty fast, do you use stop entries ?
> 
> thx




Hi broadway,

as i am a scalper, i usually take it of at the s/r as most of the time it will retrace...but if price cuts straight through a s/r i will hold it till the next one..
ac


----------



## Kremmen

noirua said:


> The downward trend of the Aussie is well set now, IMHO.




For many months,  the ASX and the AUD have pretty much followed the direction of the US stock market. It appears to me that your statement may simply reflect a bearish sentiment towards the stock market. Or do you think that the connection between stocks and the AUD might change?


----------



## noirua

Kremmen said:


> For many months,  the ASX and the AUD have pretty much followed the direction of the US stock market. It appears to me that your statement may simply reflect a bearish sentiment towards the stock market. Or do you think that the connection between stocks and the AUD might change?




I see the stock market as only part of the equation as money may well be drawn out of Australia with a shaky mining and oil sector - so I'm eying commodity prices. 
The PIIGS situation (Portugal, Ireland, Iceland, Greece, Spain) is putting pressure on Europe and that will hit Australia to an unknown extent going forward.
The USD is recovering as even China recognizes the size and strength of America and the safety in their currency during a torrential storm.


----------



## tradingtiger

noirua said:


> Commodities are slumping in price as the US Dollar gets stronger by the week. This is likely to cause an exit of cash from Australia and the trend looks set for the next target of AUD1.20 to the USD1.
> The first target of AUD1.15 came quicker than I thought but European woes weighed down on commodities in the last week or so. This trend is likely to remain.




Noirua-Trying to get used to your terminology- was excited when I started to recently read your posts thinking we would get the AUD to 1.15 against the USD- but figured out that you are putting it the inverse way.

What you are saying is that we will have to pay 1.20 AUD to buy 1 USD (assuming your target is met). How awful, as i am going to the US this year.

Learning (fast).!!!!!


----------



## Whiskers

Well, didn't go north as quickly as thought last night, but still heading that way... with the help of some compound H&S's on the 5 min... maybe!

This revised count, since the trend has unfolded a bit more, gives  '*3*' a slightly higher target of 88408ish.


----------



## acouch

a chart of someone else,
who showed me how they use the road map
thought some might be interested

ac 


http://e2.md.it-finance.com/MDV6/showimage.phtml?id=12657128688670&print=1


----------



## acouch

today's road map
a little late..sorry about that
have a great day, and good trades
ac


----------



## acouch

good morning all
today's road map
have a great day, and good trades
ac


----------



## Whiskers

Well it finally got going north again. My sometimes dubious EW count suggests that it was a 3, 3, 5, Flat correction hence my bottom call earlier. 

Fundamentally, I still see reason for the AUD weakening and the US strengethening... but this turnaround seems to have some steam behind it now, breaking the short term downtrend.

Maybe as mentioned earlier wave iii extended and this is actually the wave iv completing with another go at parity for wave v followed by a more significant wave 2 correction.


----------



## explod

> OK... So there you have the price action of the currencies yesterday... Overnight, the currencies have been range bound, and have not moved much... The Aussie dollar (A$) saw some selling when it had a Confidence report print weaker than expected, but again, these moves are all range bound...
> 
> China reported that imports had weakened last month, and that is causing some concern on the global growth front, for China was depending on the domestic demand to help offset the reduction of exports to the U.S. This news, along with the news from Aussie Confidence, has really cast a shadow on the A$ for now...




Just   from Chuck Butler of Everbank in the US, mostly they trade currencies and his daily free blurb is worth a look IMHO


----------



## James_w

Aud will keep going down to around .59-.65

long term average the dollar was sitting to high for awhile imho


----------



## acouch

morning,

a day in the life of the road map

a:couch


----------



## acouch

morning all
today's road map
have a great day, and good trades
ac


----------



## acouch

was just looking at the chart, and thought how pretty it looked
the the low of .8878

then as watching ready to print for here it dropped down to .8862.. and now passed it..so you would have to look at lower nos
ac


----------



## CanOz

The markets are in chaos over China's decision to increase bank reserves, and data out of the EU.

S&P futs sold off 8 pts in minutes.

Crazy.

CanOz


----------



## prawn_86

Wow, glad i got my USD clients in today. I thought we may have risen too fast too quick. I'll be a popular man monday


----------



## Whiskers

prawn_86 said:


> Wow, glad i got my USD clients in today. I thought we may have risen too fast too quick. I'll be a popular man monday




What did you tell them, prawn? 

Not certain, but on the HI it looks like it's probably completed an expanded flat for wave 4... the sharp fall being the impulse tail... and going north again for the .895 to .90 area, supported by my daily signals, before a larger degree correction.


----------



## Whiskers

James_w said:


> Aud will keep going down to around .59-.65
> 
> long term average the dollar was sitting to high for awhile imho




How long are you planning to wait James?


----------



## prawn_86

Whiskers said:


> What did you tell them, prawn?




That after gaining near 3 cents in a week we would probably be in for a retracement and its better to book any payments today than wait till monday


----------



## acouch

morning all

Monday's road map
have a great weekend and take care
ac


----------



## noirua

I believe the Aussie will continue down very gradually and not helped by Greece, as Germany and France stand alongside them propping them up, but not ready to pump in cash to keep Greeks in their jobs.
UK is giving their support but from a distance as they're not a Eurozone currency.
USD may continue to be a flight to safety.


----------



## acouch

today's road map updated
ac


----------



## acouch

morning all
today's road map
have a great day, and good trades
ac


----------



## CFD

Whiskers said:


> How long are you planning to wait James?




Could be a some time. I think 73c is an interesting call for this year.


----------



## acouch

aud/usd road map updated from this morning
ac


----------



## acouch

moprning all
today's road map
have a great day, and good trades
ac 

http://www.animalsaustralia.org/take_action/petitions/free-saigon/5#tally


----------



## Mishka

*AUD/USD Road Maps*

Hi as you will see from date joined I am new to this forum.
I am very interested in the road maps that are posted each day.
How do you read them. Are the highlights targets, resistance, support???
Just spent 2 hours prior to signing up going over previous post.
Looks like I will be a regular from here on.


----------



## acouch

*Re: AUD/USD Road Maps*



Mishka said:


> Hi as you will see from date joined I am new to this forum.
> I am very interested in the road maps that are posted each day.
> How do you read them. Are the highlights targets, resistance, support???
> Just spent 2 hours prior to signing up going over previous post.
> Looks like I will be a regular from here on.




tte red line ( lis )
above you are long, below you are short..

all nos on the chart stem from the lis..
so all are very strong support/resistance nos.

hope this helps
a:couch


----------



## acouch

*Re: AUD/USD Road Maps*



Mishka said:


> Hi as you will see from date joined I am new to this forum.
> I am very interested in the road maps that are posted each day.
> How do you read them. Are the highlights targets, resistance, support???
> Just spent 2 hours prior to signing up going over previous post.
> Looks like I will be a regular from here on.




tte red line ( lis )
above you are long, below you are short..

all nos on the chart stem from the lis..
so all are very strong support/resistance nos.

hope this helps
a:couch


----------



## Whiskers

Whiskers said:


> Not certain, but on the HI it looks like it's probably completed an expanded flat for wave 4... the sharp fall being the impulse tail... and going north again for the .895 to .90 area, supported by my daily signals, before a larger degree correction.




It would seem the AUD is on a charge up again...

But, looking a bit wider to the daily chart, I can't help but get my earlier feeling back that this correction should go back to the low .80's... based on FA that there should be a better run on the USD than we've seen on improved economic outlook, ie recession over... before the longer term weakening USD trend continues.

If my feeling is correct, this alternate count may kick in about the low .90's, any time now, to start an impulsive wave 'C' down to the low .80's.


----------



## acouch

morning all
today's road map
have a great day, and good trades
ac


----------



## acouch

evening,
updated aud/usd road map
have a great evening
ac


----------



## noirua

I'm expecting the recent recovery in the AUD ag'in the USD to be short lived. The Americas and Europe are moving towards the end of their winter season and move into Spring in a matter of weeks. This should cool off the oil and coal demand and the UKs recent 3.5% inflation figure is Europe's and America's, as well as China's, big concern going forward. Flight back to the USD may well continue through 2010.


----------



## Kremmen

noirua said:


> I believe the Aussie will continue down very gradually ...
> USD may continue to be a flight to safety.




Of course you do. You've always liked the USD and wanted the AUD lower.

Back around the .60 level, you were trying to talk down the AUD. ("Will the Aussie tank be even greater though?", etc) Then, for many months, as the AUD rocketed up to .90 and beyond, you were silent. Now, at pretty much every sign of weakness, you pipe up with something like this. Restating your preference for a low AUD regularly achieves what? (... unless you think ASF readers have enough financial clout to move the AUD in the direction you wish it was heading.) What would be interesting would be to know why you want the AUD to be low.


----------



## acouch

16:35ET WASHINGTON (AP)  --  Fed boosts rate banks pay for emergency loans; consumers not affected. [APNewsAlert] 

ac


  16:35ET BREAKING: Treasury yields gain after Fed hikes discount rate [MW]


----------



## acouch

good morning all
today's road map
have a great day, and good trades
ac


----------



## noirua

Kremmen said:


> Of course you do. You've always liked the USD and wanted the AUD lower.
> 
> Back around the .60 level, you were trying to talk down the AUD. ("Will the Aussie tank be even greater though?", etc) Then, for many months, as the AUD rocketed up to .90 and beyond, you were silent. Now, at pretty much every sign of weakness, you pipe up with something like this. Restating your preference for a low AUD regularly achieves what? (... unless you think ASF readers have enough financial clout to move the AUD in the direction you wish it was heading.) What would be interesting would be to know why you want the AUD to be low.




Hi Kremmen, In posting it is a matter of exchange of views and information. I had two takeovers that landed me with a lot of cash in December and also a future CGT bill; as explained before, I have moved 75% of this into USD. Obviously I moved into USD as, imho, the AUD has come to the end of its long run up.

As I work in the UK, I had over the years found that sums had built up in an account in GBPs. So previously I was bullish of the AUD and moved GBPs into AUD. 

I'm not a chartist of currencies and have avoided commenting on the charts posted, though I've found them interesting. The experts who post the charts seem to realize that my interest in AUD/USD are of a very straightforward nature and not as complicated as theirs. 

So far I've been content with my currency moves, though sometimes they move the opposite to what I think and I sit tight; the reason I may go quiet at times.

Good fortune Kremmen in your investing and I hope to read some interesting and helpful posts from you in the future, thanks - noi


----------



## Kremmen

I'm not a chartist of currencies either. Currency investment is a curiosity and something which would require way too much effort for me. For example, I've invested in ADI, up 55% for the month so far. Much risk and/or time would be necessary to get those gains from the tiny movements in currency rates.

I'm very dubious about the value of AUD/USD charts at present. The AUD pretty much rises when the ASX rises. (Today, ASX is flat and AUD has fallen, but the US Fed made a surprise Discount Rate rise overnight, pushing the USD up against all currencies.)

Now, if someone were to chart the correlation between ASX movement and AUD movement and whether one is a statistical predictor of the other, that would be a chart worth following.


----------



## Whiskers

Kremmen said:


> I'm not a chartist of currencies either. Currency investment is a curiosity and something which would require way too much effort for me. For example, I've invested in ADI, up 55% for the month so far. *Much risk and/or time would be necessary to get those gains from the tiny movements in currency rates*.




I mainly invest in shares that can and sometimes do double or treble in a reasonable time and trade others, but also trade currency and gold ocassionally, but yes, good gains come with risk and reward via leverage. 



> I'm very dubious about the value of AUD/USD charts at present. The AUD pretty much rises when the ASX rises. (Today, ASX is flat and AUD has fallen, but the US Fed made a surprise Discount Rate rise overnight, pushing the USD up against all currencies.)
> 
> Now, if someone were to *chart the correlation between ASX movement and AUD movement *and whether one is a statistical predictor of the other, that would be a chart worth following.




Already got a mention on the XAO Analysis thread here: https://www.aussiestockforums.com/forums/showthread.php?t=4888&highlight=XAO+Analysis&page=394


----------



## acouch

morning all
yesterday's road map 
coming into close

a:couch


----------



## acouch

morning all
Monday's road map
have a great weekend and take care
ac


----------



## symmetry

looking at this forex market , the monthly made a perfect high within 5 pips of the level in  nov 2009, from there on the trend is down and the level i had was 85.82 as the intial low for feb. march seems to provide an interesting event with a possible minor rally  and then a re test of the 8582 level if this is broken, by (x) amount of pts then the next level should be tested at 8074 to 8066. 

weekly the rally has already started, with now a 3 week rally, levels to watch for ont he up side would be 9105 , it has another week to run , if not then the selloff will follow again

daily  initial level was 9040 selling point with a  low level for friday at 8882, in which it did hit nicley. 

watch 8831 as a level to indicate further rally or selloff


----------



## symmetry

aud usd 

*daily initial level was 9040 selling point
*

tonight is the test , rally did not quite hit level and will offer a nice trade on the audusd, long if level broken on the high side , short if confirmation of fail of 9040 - enjoy


----------



## Whiskers

Whiskers said:


> It would seem the AUD is on a charge up again...
> 
> But, looking a bit wider to the daily chart, I can't help but get my earlier feeling back that this correction should go back to the low .80's... based on FA that there should be a better run on the USD than we've seen on improved economic outlook, ie recession over... before the longer term weakening USD trend continues.
> 
> *If my feeling is correct, this alternate count may kick in about the low .90's, any time now*, to start an impulsive wave 'C' down to the low .80's.




If it doesn't  beat 9066 on this leg up... and I'm thinking it won't, my alternate count is in play... a sharpish fall into the low 80's.


----------



## acouch

good morning all
today's road map
have a great day, and good trades
ac


----------



## symmetry

trigger reached , enjoy


----------



## noirua

Despite everything I think the AUD is still in its final throws, just like the waves on a beach before the tide finally and decisively turns.
Spain and Portugal are in bigger trouble, some think, than is being admitted and Germany and France can do little more as the European Union just has not enough cash to bail them out. 
The IMF are concerned about a double dip recession that will cause many commodities to fall in price. If they fall then the AUD goes down with it. 
The AUD is still strong on a 7 year view at AUD1.25 to the USD1. That should come in late winter or as we know, late summer in the States, Europe, Russia and China, imho.


----------



## acouch

good morning all
today's road map
have a great day, and good trades
ac


----------



## symmetry

and look a miracle the AUSSIE get smashed down , i was out by a few pips , entry 9045 and never stoped out. i got a bit woried as a reversal was in order if it went another 15pips ,  but true to the math - selloff , new levels to be calculated  but a good move already 

anyone else sell here ?


----------



## acouch

morning all
today's road map
have a great day, and good trades
ac


----------



## acouch

good morning all

today's road map
have a great day, and good trades
ac


----------



## symmetry

8830 hit and slight over run , with a buy signal confirmed , retest of previous level , , 8805 was next low level 

now this rally wil be the major test , look for a 50% retracment level, profit take  

keep it tight as as long signal not strong


----------



## acouch

good morning all
Monday's road map
have a great weekend and take care
ac


----------



## acouch

good morning all
today's road map
have a great day, and good trades
ac


----------



## acouch

morning all
today's road map
have a great day, and good trades
ac


----------



## noirua

I'm sitting watching this USD/AUD tug-of-war. Still backing the USD as the AUD appears to be still close to the last base camp and the summit and doubt that parity will happen.


----------



## Whiskers

My earlier micro count (hourly) didn't quite work out as initially expected.

My most probable scenerio now is looking like it may be forming a triangle in wich case it's likely going on to about .92ish making 'd', before coming back to the low .80ies for 'e'.

Stuffed up my EW count a bit, but still fits my FA and TA.


----------



## white_goodman

south bias till 9055ish is broken, lower tops and lower lows... all this good eco data hasnt been able to put a bid on it.


----------



## Whiskers

white_goodman said:


> *south bias *till 9055ish is broken, lower tops and lower lows... all this good eco data hasnt been able to put a bid on it.




I agree, but my hourly count suggests a diag triangle for a minor wave c or 'd' of a triangle, which should take it to 90646, maybe higher. 

Are you going long if 9055 is broken, white_goodman?


----------



## acouch

morning all
today's road map
have a great day, and good trades
ac


----------



## acouch

just a look at the updated road map
for today
ac


----------



## acouch

Morning

road map coming into close after its 24hr run

ac


----------



## acouch

good morning all
toady's road map
have a great day, and good trades
ac


----------



## Whiskers

For me, based on my sometimes dubious EW count, if it breaks up here it likely will try to break .908 again. If it breaks down I think that will likely be the cue to go short to the low .80's.


----------



## >Apocalypto<

Whiskers said:


> For me, based on my sometimes dubious EW count, if it breaks up here it likely will try to break .908 again. If it breaks down I think that will likely be the cue to go short to the low .80's.




the NFP may answer your question.


----------



## >Apocalypto<

Off the NFPs

AUDUSD rallies with swissy while the EURUSD falls very interesting to see.


----------



## Whiskers

Yeah, had the NFP figured pretty well, but lucky I didn't bet my ba!!s on the reaction.

Oh well, back to the daily chart, it may take a couple more days to squeeze out a significant break ... but I'm still anticipating a good break south.


----------



## acouch

morning all
Monday's road map
have a great weekend and take care
ac


----------



## acouch

good morning all
today's road map
have a great day, and good trades
ac


----------



## Ramalex

thanks for that, very good stuff.


----------



## acouch

morning all
today's road map
have a good day ,and good trades
ac


----------



## acouch

morning all
today's road map
have a great day and good trades
ac


----------



## acouch

a day in the life of the rm..
on its 24 hr cycle
a:couch


----------



## acouch

good morning all
today's road map
have a great day, and good trades
ac


----------



## professor_frink

acouch said:


> a day in the life of the rm..
> on its 24 hr cycle
> a:couch




hey ac hope all is going well for you

Just having a quick look at your road map here, I know you've said before that the LIS  determines if you are long or short, but there were some great trades to the long side below the LIS last night. Do you get aboard these types of trades at all?


----------



## acouch

professor_frink said:


> hey ac hope all is going well for you
> 
> Just having a quick look at your road map here, I know you've said before that the LIS  determines if you are long or short, but there were some great trades to the long side below the LIS last night. Do you get aboard these types of trades at all?





Hi p.f
yes all goes well here, and i hope all is well with you also 

yes i do, as each no is a strong no,as they all stem from the LIS. and will usually reverse,before continuing on with the trend.. so great for a scalp, but the scalp can also then turn into a change of trend and continue over the LIS..
so you can enter on one no and take it of on the next..or if you think it is strong you can trail..
quite a few options there 
hope this helps explain the rm a little better.
have a great day
ac


----------



## acouch

morning all
Monday's road map
have a great weekend, and take care
ac


----------



## professor_frink

acouch said:


> Hi p.f
> yes all goes well here, and i hope all is well with you also
> 
> yes i do, as each no is a strong no,as they all stem from the LIS. and will usually reverse,before continuing on with the trend.. so great for a scalp, but the scalp can also then turn into a change of trend and continue over the LIS..
> so you can enter on one no and take it of on the next..or if you think it is strong you can trail..
> quite a few options there
> hope this helps explain the rm a little better.
> have a great day
> ac




thanks for the explanation ac.

Have a great weekend


----------



## acouch

losing the plot..just looked at my audusd rm and saw it was different to one posted..one posted for today was Fridays
doh !!


sorry about that

this one is for today Monday 

ac


----------



## acouch

updated rm .as it goes

ac


----------



## acouch

morning all
today's road map
have a great day, and good trades
ac


----------



## acouch

good morning all
today's road map
have a great day, and good trades
ac


----------



## acouch

morning all
today's road map
have a great day, and good trades
ac


----------



## Kremmen

noirua said:


> I'm sitting watching this USD/AUD tug-of-war. Still backing the USD ...




Keep up the good work. Seems like every time you try to talk the AUD down, it rises.


----------



## acouch

good morning all
today's road map
have a great day, and good trades
ac


----------



## acouch

audusd road map end of its cycle

it range traded for quite a few hrs , price jammed in between
LIS and .9193 but once it made the break gave a great move for shorts.

ac


----------



## acouch

morning all
Monday's road map
have a great weekend and take care
ac


----------



## Whiskers

Hey ac, do you work a longer time frame at all and if so what's it suggesting to you?

I'm thinking my initial call was probably right, up to about .92 before getting down into my low .80's.

Looking like a triangle wave four on the daily has put in the 'd'... my count on the hourly seems to concur.


----------



## acouch

Whiskers said:


> Hey ac, do you work a longer time frame at all and if so what's it suggesting to you?
> 
> I'm thinking my initial call was probably right, up to about .92 before getting down into my low .80's.
> 
> Looking like a triangle wave four on the daily has put in the 'd'... my count on the hourly seems to concur.





hi Whiskers

i only chart the 10min on aud/usd

but chart below is the aud fut..
which is a daily

have fun
ac


----------



## Whiskers

acouch said:


> hi Whiskers
> 
> i only chart the 10min on aud/usd
> 
> but chart below is the aud fut..
> which is a daily
> 
> have fun
> ac




Thanks for that ac. 

I'll get back to you when I work it out... in a day or three, maybe.


----------



## acouch

morning all

today's road map
a little different as i had to redo my charts yesterday
lost the lot :-(
have a great day, and good trades
ac


----------



## acouch

morning all
today's road map
have a great day, and good trades
ac


----------



## acouch

morning all
today's road map
have a great day, and good trades
ac


----------



## Whiskers

The week is not quite over yet... but it looks like a nice Evening Star setting up. 

Down boy, down!


----------



## acouch

how today's road map has shaped up today/tonight
ac


----------



## acouch

morning all
today's road map
have a great day, and good trades
ac


----------



## acouch

updated road map

ac


----------



## Whiskers

Whiskers said:


> The week is not quite over yet... but it looks like a nice Evening Star setting up.
> 
> Down boy, down!




Good boy. :


----------



## Trembling Hand

Whiskers looking at your chart you have about 4 MAs on it as well as a MACD indicator.

Now correct me if I'm on the wrong track but is that no the same info duplicated?

ie initial info being _I, I_ x 1 still equals _I_


----------



## Whiskers

Trembling Hand said:


> Whiskers looking at your chart you have about 4 MAs on it as well as a MACD indicator.
> 
> Now correct me if I'm on the wrong track but is that no the same info duplicated?
> 
> ie initial info being _I, I_ x 1 still equals _I_




Oops, sorry about that confusion. There's the normal Bollinger Band and a couple other  MA's and HMA Russian tinkered a bit for different time frames and purposes. 

Some are not relevant on the weekly chart as I just converted my daily chart to a weekly to better illustrate the larger picture EW point, and haven't adjusted the 'period' in some accordingly.

Not same info duplicated, more like same info formulated a bit differently. I suppose you could say that collectively it's my attempt at a variation of a rainbow chart.


----------



## >Apocalypto<

Whiskers said:


> Oops, sorry about that confusion. There's the normal Bollinger Band and a couple other  MA's and HMA Russian tinkered a bit for different time frames and purposes.
> 
> Some are not relevant on the weekly chart as I just converted my daily chart to a weekly to better illustrate the larger picture EW point, and haven't adjusted the 'period' in some accordingly.
> 
> Not same info duplicated, more like same info formulated a bit differently. I suppose you could say that collectively it's my attempt at a variation of a rainbow chart.




whatever helps you to see the market and profit is the right way for you Whiskers!


----------



## acouch

morning all
Monday's road map
have a great day
ac


----------



## acouch

morning all
today's road map
have a great day, and good trades
ac


----------



## acouch

morning all
today's road map
have a great day, and good trades
ac


----------



## acouch

morning all
today's road map
have a great Easter and take care
ac


----------



## Whiskers

Well, big picture still looking good. Aught to go south with avengence soon. 

Hey ac, I see those circle things are getting pretty close together. Is that a reflection of the relatively narrow range lately and suggestive of anything in particular?


----------



## ThingyMajiggy

Whiskers said:


> Well, big picture still looking good. Aught to go south with avengence soon.




Soo...now that its gone nearly 100 pips against you, whats your say from here? 

Or were you joking? Post was on April 1st after all.


----------



## Whiskers

ThingyMajiggy said:


> Soo...now that its gone nearly 100 pips against you, whats your say from here?
> 
> Or were you joking? Post was on April 1st after all.




Yeah, fundamentally I'm still staying with the bigger picture down trend for the time being. The US is a bit more lethargic than I thought a few months ago about their economy improving and interest rates rising... or maybe it's ours that is too artifically stimulated in the short term. 

Three waves down from 'd' then a bigger reversal than I expected was a bit of a worry, but it may turn out to be a 3, 3, 5 Expanding Flat for wave 'e'.

Overall I just get a sense that the US sharemarket probably needs a bit of a correction/spell anytime now, then the money might start flowing back into the US picking up bargains ahead of interest rate rises and a stronger economy.

If I was a market manipulator, that's what I'd try to do anyway.


----------



## acouch

good morning all
today's road map
have a great day, and good trades..
ac 

p.s whiskers..no the map stays pretty much the same, but perhaps i squeeze  it up a bit
more when i load it


----------



## Trembling Hand

Whiskers said:


> Yeah, fundamentally I'm still staying with the bigger picture down trend for the time being.




What down trend is that Whiskers? The AUD is probably the strongest currency around at the moment (& the CAD). Its clearly in an UP trend.

The only AUD pair not breaking out is the AUDUSD because of the recent relative strength of the USD.


----------



## MRC & Co

Whiskers said:


> Overall I just get a sense that the US sharemarket probably needs a bit of a correction/spell anytime now, then the money might start flowing back into the US picking up bargains ahead of interest rate rises and a stronger economy.




Bargains in what?


----------



## acouch

good morning all
today's road map
have a great day, and good trades
ac


----------



## Whiskers

Trembling Hand said:


> What down trend is that Whiskers? The AUD is probably the strongest currency around at the moment (& the CAD). Its clearly in an UP trend.
> 
> The only AUD pair not breaking out is the AUDUSD because of the recent relative strength of the USD.




Still (in big picture) down from last Nov and Jan highs... but as I say the recent bit of a surge is a bit of a worry to my forcast, unless it pans out as an Expanded Flat which would see it retreat to the low 80's with some vigor.

There is stil a bit of MACD divergance and the March low over-lapped the Feb high, which isn't indicative of a strong impulse attempt to go higher soon.



MRC & Co said:


> Bargains in what?




Equities primiarily, by comparrison after a sell-off, as apart from a pure technical correction or spell being due imo, some companies around the world have paid extraudinarily high dividends compared to past years even when making a loss last year.


----------



## acouch

morning all
today's road map
have a great day, and good trades
ac


----------



## acouch

morning all
Monday's road map
have a great weekend and take care
ac


----------



## >Apocalypto<

Whiskers said:


> Still (in big picture) down from last Nov and Jan highs... but as I say the recent bit of a surge is a bit of a worry to my forcast, unless it pans out as an Expanded Flat which would see it retreat to the low 80's with some vigor.
> 
> There is stil a bit of MACD divergance and the March low over-lapped the Feb high, which isn't indicative of a strong impulse attempt to go higher soon.
> 
> 
> 
> Equities primiarily, by comparrison after a sell-off, as apart from a pure technical correction or spell being due imo, some companies around the world have paid extraudinarily high dividends compared to past years even when making a loss last year.




Whiskers, 

you still a seller?

where's your exit point? it's looking like moving up again.


----------



## acouch

evening all
just a updated rm..
ac


----------



## Whiskers

>Apocalypto< said:


> Whiskers,
> 
> you still a seller?
> 
> where's your exit point? it's looking like moving up again.




I'm on the side lines atm Apocalypto. I have conflicting messages for the bigger picture in particular so I reckoned it was time to have a few days off doing some painting and garden clean up to completely clear my mind.

The current high looks like another minor 'iii' up in which case it's an equidistant a, b, c and about the max spot for an Expanding Flat... however the alternate count would be a regular a, b, c complete at my 'c' and where my 'd' currently is would be a '3' wave up in which case, being a diag triangle, it could go one minor leg higher or already have started a larger degree correction probably back to the high 80's.

However, I'm re-analysing FA data, but in the meantime I still slightly favor my earlier scenerio albeit it's getting a bit stretched atm.

PS: That was a pretty good looking Evening Star (I thought) on the weekly chart at the 'd' high. I've seen them fail ocassionally on lower time frames but I've not recalled a weekly one failing... but if it turns out to be the start of an Expanded Flat...


----------



## acouch

good morning all
today's road amp
have a great day, and good trades
ac


----------



## acouch

good morning all
today's road map
have a great day, and good trades
ac


----------



## acouch

good morning all
today's road map
have a great day, and good trades
ac


----------



## acouch

evening all
updated rm
have a great evening
ac


----------



## acouch

good morning all
today's road map, as you can see very similar to yesterdays
been down and back up to the start
have a great day, and good trades
ac


----------



## acouch

good morning all
Monday's road map
have a great weekend, and take care
ac


----------



## acouch

good morning all
today's road map
have a great day, and good trades
ac


----------



## acouch

evening all
updated audusd map as it progresses into evening
ac


----------



## acouch

morning all
today's road map
have a great day, and good trades
ac


----------



## acouch

good morning all
today's road map
have a great day, and good trades
ac


----------



## >Apocalypto<

thanks for all your updated AC, I always check em out. The only issue is I have no idea what they mean! the charts you post, are they IB charts?


----------



## acouch

>Apocalypto< said:


> thanks for all your updated AC, I always check em out. The only issue is I have no idea what they mean! the charts you post, are they IB charts?





Yes Apocalypto,
 they are fed by ib into sierra charts

they are very simple charts really,,
you are long above and short below the red line eg : red line ..LIS line in sand..

you can scalp against the trend..as one will probably end up changing the trend
but all nos are strong nos as they come from the LIS so all good support and resistance..and when price hits a no it will usually retrace before continuing with the trend..

as you can see with chart posted below as it stands now..
hope this is of some help understanding the rm's
ac


----------



## acouch

good morning
today's road map,
nearly a re run of yesterdays
have a great day, and good trades
ac


----------



## acouch

morning all
today's road map
have a great day, and good trades
ac


----------



## acouch

good morning all
today's road map
have a great day, and good trades
ac


----------



## acouch

road map at  the end of its 24hr cycle
ac


----------



## acouch

good morning all
today's road map
have a great day, and good trades
ac


----------



## Whiskers

Pretty nice channel between the closing prices from the last high.

If this trend continues we should see a sell-off tonight.

Bit of divergance showing on the hourly seems to confirm.

Any signs of further retrace on your system ac?


----------



## acouch

Whiskers said:


> Pretty nice channel between the closing prices from the last high.
> 
> If this trend continues we should see a sell-off tonight.
> 
> Bit of divergance showing on the hourly seems to confirm.
> 
> Any signs of further retrace on your system ac?




chart with bigger picture whiskers 
ac


----------



## Whiskers

acouch said:


> chart with bigger picture whiskers
> ac




Something like this would be good.


----------



## MRC & Co

Huge, HUGE pool of liquidity above 93 especially up towards 94, including some of the worlds biggest names (RBA feeding supply in there with them).  An AUD tank coincides with my 'risk off' theory here (S&P putting in a lower high), bonds rallying despite supply and equities rallying, and gold up on a CDS spread blowout (hedging currency land).  

+ money markets are now factoring in higher chance of a rate rise ahead of RBA nxt wk, after strong CPI data (which is what has already been factored in these last days).

This short almost looks too easy!


----------



## acouch

morning,
road map end of 24hr cycle
ac


----------



## acouch

Morning all
Monday's road map
have a great weekend and take care
ac


----------



## Whiskers

Whiskers said:


> Something like this would be good.






MRC & Co said:


> Huge, HUGE pool of liquidity above 93 especially up towards 94, including some of the worlds biggest names (RBA feeding supply in there with them).  An AUD tank coincides with my 'risk off' theory here (S&P putting in a lower high), bonds rallying despite supply and equities rallying, and gold up on a CDS spread blowout (hedging currency land).
> 
> + money markets are now factoring in higher chance of a rate rise ahead of RBA nxt wk, after strong CPI data (which is what has already been factored in these last days).
> 
> *This short almost looks too easy*!




Hey MRC, I almost started to worry that you put the mocker on it, what with agreeing with such confidence. 



acouch said:


> morning,
> road map end of 24hr cycle
> ac




Lovely result. We'll have to get the teamwork together again one day.


----------



## Whiskers

That closing price upper channel resistance seems to be continuing.


----------



## acouch

good morning all
road map pretty much the same as yesterday's
have a great day, and good trades
ac


----------



## MRC & Co

I think rates are going up today.  Statement may still be hawkish.

If AUD sells off on this after an initial spike, it's an obvious top.


----------



## Wysiwyg

The hourly MACD has crossed down over the signal line which indicates a decline of sorts. Maybe a short squeeze first?


----------



## Whiskers

Yeah, the weekly MACD seems about to cross over too. More indications of a significant decline.

Hey, where have all the EW experts gone lately!? I've got my theory/count, but I miss bouncing off the EW experts ocassionally.


----------



## acouch

good morning all
today's road map
have a great day, and good trades
ac


----------



## MRC & Co

MRC & Co said:


> I think rates are going up today.  Statement may still be hawkish.
> 
> If AUD sells off on this after an initial spike, it's an obvious top.




Well got the first right, the second wrong.  Rates up, dovish statement.  

Still an obvious top IMO.  Think we will test the 88 region in the coming couple wks.


----------



## acouch

good morning all
today's road map
have a great day, and good trades
ac


----------



## noirua

At last, thanks to Henry, the AUD shows signs of weakening. I had planned for A$1.20 - A$1.25 by now but raising interest rates to slow the economy and inflation has hurt my efforts.


----------



## Whiskers

noirua said:


> At last, thanks to Henry, the AUD shows signs of weakening. I had planned for A$1.20 - A$1.25 by now but raising interest rates to slow the economy and inflation has hurt my efforts.




I thought the AUD was showing signs of weakness long before Henry. How to you connect/attribute this weakness to Henry?


----------



## noirua

Whiskers said:


> I thought the AUD was showing signs of weakness long before Henry. How to you connect/attribute this weakness to Henry?




Less money will come into Australia with all the bad news over higher taxes on the key mining companies. The major coal project in Queensland and new port are now being reconsidered as well as those in NSW. Probably good news as far as coal activists are concerned though.
Higher interest rates should have pushed the AUD / USD to nearer A$1.05.


----------



## acouch

evening
updated rm..going though its 24 hr cycle
ac


----------



## acouch

good morning all
today's road map
have a great day, and good trades
ac


----------



## Whiskers

Well, back to the macro picture, I'm thinking my triangle may be correct. 

Was getting a bit concerned it was a five wave impulse up through the line, but I think it's still within parameters to be more likely an Expanded Flat to finish off the Triangle... in which case it still has some way to go.


----------



## acouch

afternoon all
Monday's road map
have a great weekend and take care
ac


----------



## acouch

good morning all
today's road map
have a great day, and good trades
ac


----------



## acouch

good morning all
today's road map
have a great day, and good trades
ac


----------



## krk004

FWIW;

http://yelnick.typepad.com/yelnick/2010/05/the-case-against-the-aud.html#more


----------



## acouch

good morning all
today's road map
have a great day, and good trades
ac


----------



## acouch

good morning all,
today's rm same as yesterdays
have a great day, and good trades
ac


----------



## acouch

good morning all
Monday's road map
have a great weekend and take care
ac


----------



## noirua

Thank goodness that the trend is reversing and better than AUD1.14 (inverse). For a moment I thought I'd lose money in holding cash, albeit in USDs. 

Just as the Aussie once refused to go 50c to the USD1, I believe the USD will refuse to go parity with the AUD this timer. The trend about to be set should, imho, go on to AUD1.20 - AUD1.25 to the greenback.


----------



## acouch

good morning all
today's road map
have a great day. and good trades
ac


----------



## acouch

good morning all
today's road map
have a great day, and good trades
ac


----------



## noirua

Still the AUD is heading South and reversing at increasingly high speed. Thank you Henry as the word has gone out worldwide that miners taxes are going to be the highest in the world, and pull your money out of Australia.


----------



## noirua

noirua said:


> Still the AUD is heading South and reversing at increasingly high speed. Thank you Henry as the word has gone out worldwide that miners taxes are going to be the highest in the world, and pull your money out of Australia.




The Aussie is now tanking against the pathetic British Pound and stuffed up Euro. Now down to A$1.185 (inverse) against the AUD.
Why is the Aussie so weak? Henry basically smashed it and foreigners are moving cash out and miners move abroad to explore.


----------



## Whiskers

noirua said:


> The Aussie is now tanking against the pathetic British Pound and stuffed up Euro. Now down to A$1.185 (inverse) against the AUD.
> Why is the Aussie so weak? Henry basically smashed it and foreigners are moving cash out and miners move abroad to explore.




Is it all about Henry, or is it more to do with an international flight to USD's with the Euro debt issues now worse than the US economy which seems to have bottomed out and improving slightly?


----------



## qldfrog

yesterday (ie US last night), the AUD tanked 4.5% against the euro!!
amazing
thanks Rudd


----------



## acouch

good morning all
today's road map
have a great day, and good trades
ac


----------



## korrupt_1

watching the AUD slide is amazing... 81c levels hit

it is so tempting to go long, but.... geeze... need balls of steel to go against this vicious trend!


----------



## financialdonk

Excuse my ignorance in relation to forex, I am a relatively big lurker on this thread.  Am paid in USD atm and have been holding them without converting to AUSD since around Sept last year.

Am not seeking any advice, more inquisitive as to how others view this downtrend.  Has the AUSD still got plenty to fall?  I have been astounded with movement over the last week.

If interest rates here do not rise when RBA meets next month is that enough to continue the downward trend?  If world markets continue to get cold feet and China is also found to be fudging their economic data and their economy comes to a relative halt, is the AUSD in a position to fall back to the .60 mark or lower?

Also acouch, much love for the work on the thread even if the graphs mostly go right over the top of my head!


----------



## drsmith

The 2-year graph in the link below puts the current fall into perspective.

http://au.finance.yahoo.com/q/bc?s=AUDUSD=X&t=2y&l=on&z=m&q=l&c=

Note that the time resolution is not sufficient to show it reaching $US0.82, at least not yet.


----------



## noirua

drsmith said:


> The 2-year graph in the link below puts the current fall into perspective.
> 
> http://au.finance.yahoo.com/q/bc?s=AUDUSD=X&t=2y&l=on&z=m&q=l&c=
> 
> Note that the time resolution is not sufficient to show it reaching $US0.82, at least not yet.




$US0.81604 as the Aussie$ tanks at great speed and would you believe it $US0.80 is approaching fast. 
Fair enough, as said, there is a flight to the US$; on the other hand Rudd and Co backed up by Henry seem content to stuff the Aussie$ and Australia with it.


----------



## pacestick

non mining exporters wont be complaining


----------



## acouch

good morning all
today's road map
this was dropping quicker than i could do it this morning
have a great day, and good trades
ac


----------



## Aston

Given the RBA's insights, I wonder whether they foresaw the collapse of the AUD and did some currency trades.  For example in the past the RBA has made huge profits (billions in 2009) by buying and selling AUD in times of currency volatility. Only a conspiracy theory but we will eventually find out when the RBA next’s publish their annual report.


----------



## Whiskers

Whiskers said:


> Well, back to the macro picture, I'm thinking my triangle may be correct.
> 
> Was getting a bit concerned it was a five wave impulse up through the line, but I think it's still within parameters to be more likely an Expanded Flat to finish off the Triangle... in which case it still has some way to go.






Aston said:


> Given the RBA's insights, I wonder whether they foresaw the collapse of the AUD and did some currency trades.  For example in the past the RBA has made huge profits (billions in 2009) by buying and selling AUD in times of currency volatility. Only a conspiracy theory but we will eventually find out when the RBA next’s publish their annual report.




Well, if I could foresee it coming, the BBA surely could. 

I think I'm happy that it's put in the bottom. Certainly made my target anyway... now it can meander it's way back up again. 

What say your crystal ball, ac?


----------



## acouch

good morning all
Monday's road map
have a great weekend, and take care
ac 

just follow the yellow brick road whiskers a:couch


----------



## Whiskers

acouch said:


> good morning all
> Monday's road map
> have a great weekend, and take care
> ac
> 
> just follow the yellow brick road whiskers a:couch




lol... oh dear, you're a character ac.


----------



## Wysiwyg

Whiskers said:


> Yeah, the weekly MACD seems about to cross over too. More indications of a significant decline.



You deserve a slap on the back but you will have to wait until after the Blues are rolled this Wednesday night. :   A +1000 pip decline in retrospect.


----------



## Whiskers

Wysiwyg said:


> You deserve a slap on the back but you will have to wait until after the Blues are rolled this Wednesday night. :   A +1000 pip decline in retrospect.




Yeah, in hindsight I wish I'd have thrown 'all in' on that move. 

As for the Maroons, I'm not so confident on that one.


----------



## acouch

good morning all
today's road map
have a great day. and good trades
ac


----------



## Muschu

Novice question on behalf of an adventerous brother..

Can someone please tell me where the AUDUSD can be traded?

I gather Forex is one option?

Thanks

Rick


----------



## acouch

good morning all
today's road map
have a great day, and good trades
ac


----------



## professor_frink

Muschu said:


> Novice question on behalf of an adventerous brother..
> 
> Can someone please tell me where the AUDUSD can be traded?
> 
> I gather Forex is one option?
> 
> Thanks
> 
> Rick




Hi Rick, yes you can trade it via a forex broker, futures are another way(chart here), there is also an ETF in the US(ticker code FXA)

Hope this helps


----------



## acouch

good morning all
today's road map
have a great day, and good trades
ac


----------



## acouch

good morning all
today's road map
have a great day, and good trades
ac


----------



## lazydesi

acouch said:


> good morning all
> today's road map
> have a great day, and good trades
> ac




thanks mate


----------



## acouch

good morning all
Monday's road map
have a great weekend and take care
ac


----------



## acouch

good morning all
today's road map
have a great day, and good trades
ac


----------



## acouch

morning all
today's road map
have a great day, and good trades
ac


----------



## acouch

good morning all
today's road map
have a great day, and good trades
ac


----------



## acouch

good morning all
Monday's road map
have a great weekend, and take care
ac


----------



## noirua

We seem to be on a roll you guys. The USD is the place to put your dough in troubled times. Presently 0.8136 or inverse 1.2289 and nearing my target zone of AUD1.25 - 1.35 to the greenback - there seems no way of turning the tide now so stay-on-board the greenback and enjoy ride.


----------



## acouch

good morning all
today's road map
have a great day, and good trades
ac


----------



## acouch

good morning all
today's road map
have a great day, and good trades
ac


----------



## acouch

morning
a day in the life of the road map
ac


----------



## acouch

good morning all
today's road map
have a great day, and good trades
ac


----------



## Whiskers

noirua said:


> We seem to be on a roll you guys. The USD is the place to put your dough in troubled times. Presently 0.8136 or inverse 1.2289 and nearing my target zone of AUD1.25 - 1.35 to the greenback - there seems no way of turning the tide now so stay-on-board the greenback and enjoy ride.




Yeah, I don't think there's much downside left now. The best is over. 

Hey there ac, what's with the new image (avatar)? Are you howling about somethin, get on the wrong side of a big trade or somethin?


----------



## acouch

Whiskers said:


> Hey there ac, what's with the new image (avatar)? Are you howling about something.., get on the wrong side of a big trade or something?




hahaha Whiskers

it was the closest i could get to a German Shepherd

but wolves also need looking after 

a:couch


----------



## acouch

good morning all
today's road map
have a great day, and good trades
ac


----------



## acouch

good morning all
Monday's road map
have a great weekend and take care
ac


----------



## sykore

*AUD/USD where is it heading?*

Just wondering where everyone thinks the AUD/USD is heading.

Up or down? How long for?


----------



## prawn_86

*Re: AUD/USD where is it heading?*



sykore said:


> Just wondering where everyone thinks the AUD/USD is heading.
> 
> Up or down? How long for?




If we knew that we would all be rich and would have no need to be here. I know its your first post but it is a bit of a silly question.


----------



## Whiskers

*Re: AUD/USD where is it heading?*



acouch said:


> hahaha Whiskers
> 
> it was the closest i could get to a German Shepherd
> 
> but wolves also need looking after
> 
> a:couch




I believe you ac. 



sykore said:


> Just wondering where everyone thinks the AUD/USD is heading.
> 
> Up or down? How long for?




As Prawn says, if we knew we'd all be rich... but, after consulting all my FA, TA, infinite wisdom, devine spirituality, the universal knowledge bank and my cats... my tip is it's probably made a minor iii high and likely to retrace a little in the next few days. 

But the bottom is in. It ain't going to sub 80, by my reckenoning.


----------



## acouch

good morning all
today's road map
have a great day, and good trades
ac


----------



## acouch

good morning all
today's road map
have a great day, and good trades
ac


----------



## acouch

good morning all
Monday's road map
have a great weekend and take care
ac


----------



## acouch

good morning all
today's road map
have a great day, and good trades
ac


----------



## davpef

Hi there

I am new to this thread and perhaps I've skipped it, but Acouch is there an explanatory message for your road map?

Any thoughts on the AUD/USD anyone?  Yesterday and today - failure to close (at this point) above the 100-day EMA.

Any views on how the Yuan flexibility might impact the AUD?


----------



## acouch

davpef said:


> Hi there
> 
> I am new to this thread and perhaps I've skipped it, but Acouch is there an explanatory message for your road map?




the rules of the road map are as such

red line is the( Line In the Sand ) eg: LIS.denotes the trend
above you are looking for longs, below shorts..
all nos stem from the LIS, so all nos are strong support/resistance..
you can scalp against the trend ,eg: within the nos. and one no ,will probably be a reversal in the trend as well.

i hope this helps explain the road map for you 
ac


----------



## davpef

Thanks ac

I must admit I've not come across one of them before, but that's probably because I'm fairly new to this stuff.

Appreciate the explanation.


----------



## acouch

for those interested,
this is the result from yesterdays road map
ac


----------



## acouch

morning all
today's road map
have a great day, and good trades
ac


----------



## Kremmen

noirua said:


> $US0.81604 as the Aussie$ tanks at great speed and would you believe it $US0.80 is approaching fast.



No, I wouldn't believe it.


----------



## Whiskers

Where is the next major turn going to be!

Looking like a significant period about these levels on the weekly chart.

My intuition is leaning toward at least a bit of a reversal before going too much higher... but not too much else to go on atm.

Where's ac when you need her?


----------



## Whiskers

If my preferred EW count is correct it should reverse anytime soon... before .96773.

I'm out of the market atm waiting for a sign!  :venus:

Anyone got a good sign?


----------



## OldFart

You use daily charts? Isn't that a little risky?


----------



## Whiskers

OldFart said:


> You use daily charts? Isn't that a little risky?




Why so?

I use 1 and 5 min charts while in a position, with ocassional reference to 15 and 30 min, 1 and 4 hr. I have a setup where I can look at all time frames together. 

I suppose I should mention I follow other indicators not copied here. Often I get a sense of direction from the price action and indicators as it transposes through the time frames.

The above daily I use in conjunction with a weekly for the bigger picture... which I'm trying to get a handle on again.

The sentiment has been bullish for parity again, but my sense is cautious that it's a tad overdone atm largely on the back of US monetry policy and weak USD. The AUD pushing through parity in a hurry would also cause some concerns for the RBA. So the issue for me is, what is going to trip the market and who will blink first.


----------



## Uncle Festivus

A tad overdone you reckon Whiskers? I've gone short when it hit 96! Just too much priced in over 25bp interest rate rise that may or may not happen, and the China syndrome continuing ad nauseum?


----------



## OldFart

Whiskers said:


> Why so?
> 
> I use 1 and 5 min charts while in a position, with ocassional reference to 15 and 30 min, 1 and 4 hr. I have a setup where I can look at all time frames together.
> 
> I suppose I should mention I follow other indicators not copied here. Often I get a sense of direction from the price action and indicators as it transposes through the time frames.
> 
> The above daily I use in conjunction with a weekly for the bigger picture... which I'm trying to get a handle on again.
> 
> The sentiment has been bullish for parity again, but my sense is cautious that it's a tad overdone atm largely on the back of US monetry policy and weak USD. The AUD pushing through parity in a hurry would also cause some concerns for the RBA. So the issue for me is, what is going to trip the market and who will blink first.




I'm sorry. I misunderstood. I thought you strictly went by daily charts. Good play by the way...


----------



## prawn_86

I think we are very close to the high on the pair. 

To me it appears that we are trading mainly on sentiment, and a few technicals, but definitely not fundamentals. All fundy indicators point to the AUD being over-valued, but we all know that they dont mean much in the shorter term.

Personally i wouldnt be surprised to see a drop towards the 0.93 mark over the next couple weeks, and hence am advising my clients to lock away >50% of their exposure for the next 3 - 6 months


----------



## Boggo

Am having a play with RT data from Metatrader to MTPredictor at the moment to see how these signals play out.

It seems to have picked on what you are saying on the 15 min chart.

(click to expand)


----------



## Boggo

First target hit...

(click to expand)


----------



## johnnyg

Nice Trade Boggo.


----------



## Boggo

johnnyg said:


> Nice Trade Boggo.




Thanks johnnyg.

Actually I have only got one tenth of the value displayed on the chart on this trade, just doing some trials on standard (TS3 in particular) signals in different time frames.
I find that even using small $ amounts to start with make it more realistic than just doing it on paper.

Waiting patiently for the setup to arrive seems to be the way so far.


----------



## Whiskers

Uncle Festivus said:


> *A tad overdone you reckon Whiskers*? I've gone short when it hit 96! Just too much priced in over 25bp interest rate rise that may or may not happen, and the China syndrome continuing ad nauseum?




Well, maybe a few 'tads'. 



prawn_86 said:


> I think we are very close to the high on the pair.
> 
> To me it appears that we are trading mainly on sentiment, and a few technicals, but definitely not fundamentals. All fundy indicators point to the AUD being over-valued, but we all know that they dont mean much in the shorter term.
> 
> Personally i wouldnt be surprised to see* a drop towards the 0.93 mark over the next couple weeks*, and hence am advising my clients to lock away >50% of their exposure for the next 3 - 6 months




Yes, I think that's likely the first stop off... at least if the H&S on the hourly turns out.



Boggo said:


> Thanks johnnyg.
> 
> Actually I have only got one tenth of the value displayed on the chart on this trade, just doing some trials on standard (TS3 in particular) signals in different time frames.
> *I find that even using small $ amounts to start with make it more realistic than just doing it on paper.*
> 
> Waiting patiently for the setup to arrive seems to be the way so far.




Me too Boggo. I did paper trading for awhile and it's easy to get over confident and over committed to a position. But when you have actual cash on the line it tends to 'make you feel different'... in the guts.


----------



## Boggo

Whiskers said:


> Me too Boggo. I did paper trading for awhile and it's easy to get over confident and over committed to a position. But when you have actual cash on the line it tends to 'make you feel different'... in the guts.




Most definitely, having to think about placing actual stops, holding positions overnight etc etc are some of the items that I personally cannot apply the same attention to if paper trading.

Paper trading is like walking a tightrope while it is lying on the ground.


----------



## Boggo

Gonna get stopped out here in a minute...

(click to expand)


----------



## prawn_86

This strength is really surprising, sentiment is a powerful factor!

Personally im still hoping we drop off (for my clients sake) but dont have any active personal trades out at the moment


----------



## Boggo

prawn_86 said:


> This strength is really surprising, sentiment is a powerful factor!
> 
> Personally im still hoping we drop off (for my clients sake) but dont have any active personal trades out at the moment




Possibility of a drop, this the 4 hour chart, can it repeat the previous pattern ?

(click to expand)


----------



## Wysiwyg

Some simple lines (a pennant maybe) from the hourly and am readying for the breach of upper or lower. A thrust upward is my bias but ready for either.


----------



## Boggo

It took a bit of doing but it got there eventually after I bailed out and went to bed.

(click to expand)


----------



## Whiskers

Whiskers said:


> If my preferred EW count is correct it should reverse anytime soon... before .96773.
> 
> I'm out of the market atm waiting for a sign!  :venus:
> 
> *Anyone got a good sign?*




Finally I might have my sign... an Enening Star... maybe! 



prawn_86 said:


> This strength is really surprising, sentiment is a powerful factor!
> 
> Personally im still hoping we drop off (for my clients sake) but dont have any active personal trades out at the moment




I'm a bit surprised with the continued strength also, prawn. It's giving my EW count a tense time... but that  .96773 max is still good. 

My EW count has gotta be right!


----------



## doctorj

You guys may find this interesting.  AUD is described as a "one way bet"...

toot toot


----------



## Whiskers

doctorj said:


> You guys may find this interesting.  AUD is described as a "one way bet"...
> 
> toot toot




We'll blame them for the overzealous optermism in Aus atm. 

But back to my analysis, expressed in EW on the hourly chart as a measuring stick of sorts, .96783 not .96773 as above (after ckecking my maths) has been breached... but my count is still valid because after exhaustive consultation with the mass  'psyche' I've got wave 'v' ending on the 22nd and this latest upward thrust as part of an expanded flat correction (EW wave count applies to the end points of waves)... yes I got us in the 'b' wave on the correction.

We just need another little up leg to finish the 5, 3, 5 'b' leg... then I think I'll get in for the ride down, and down she will go to maybe .92ish, I hope.


----------



## MRC & Co

I've got a 'feeling' tonight will see the squeeze in USD shorts accross most of the G10 pairs (except perhaps against the JPY).


----------



## professor_frink

http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2010-...st-rate-unchanged-at-4-5-for-fifth-month.html



> *Australia Unexpectedly Keeps Rates Unchanged; Currency Drops*
> 
> Australia’s central bank unexpectedly left its benchmark interest rate unchanged for a fifth straight month, triggering the biggest drop in the local dollar in almost two months amid signs of cooling domestic demand.
> 
> Reserve Bank of Australia Governor Glenn Stevens kept the overnight cash rate target at 4.5 percent, as forecast by only six of 25 economists surveyed by Bloomberg News, the RBA’s statement showed in Sydney today. Stevens added that higher borrowing costs will likely be needed “at some point.”




Today's chart:


----------



## explod

A firming up of the US$ in the last day or so has also played its part.

Will be short lived in my view.  The aussie $ fall that is.


----------



## MRC & Co

Well it prooved that the RBA was a small fish in the sea in comparison with the BoJ, keeping the liquidity rally full blown!  Then Evans in the US basically saying US QE2 is going to be coming and looks like it will dwarf the Japanese attempt!  All great for the carry to blow full steam ahead.

Trade wars are the next thing heating up and look what could potentially derail all of this, but that shouldn't be an issue before G20.

All good for your gold stash Explod!


----------



## Boggo

Short term hit and run trading seems to be the best method on these currencies, is that the general method that most apply ?

This is the opposite of what I do on daily stock trading.

(click to expand)


----------



## tech/a

Thats what I tend to do.
Double top on AUD shorted with a stop above the previous high.


----------



## Boggo

tech/a said:


> Thats what I tend to do.
> Double top on AUD shorted with a stop above the previous high.




Yep, seems to work doesn't it, last time I tried this I felt I had to be in a trade most of the time, now I just wait until the setups I like come to me and its working so far.


----------



## prawn_86

Boggo said:


> Yep, seems to work doesn't it, last time I tried this I felt I had to be in a trade most of the time, now I just wait until the setups I like come to me and its working so far.




I'm the same with my personal trading. Probably dont take as many trades as i should, but when i have time and a nice set-up comes along i will put one on. Only a couple a month


----------



## Frank D

*AUD/USD*

Yearly highs reached @ .9786 (personally I think it will go slightly higher 
this month.

Thursday's trend guide defined by .9777

Random support as shown (right chart)

Levels in the daily range are only valid for the each 12 hour block.


----------



## Boggo

Frank D said:


> *AUD/USD*
> 
> Yearly highs reached @ .9786 (personally I think it will go slightly higher
> this month.




It did that Frank, now, can it do it again, waiting, waiting.

Hourly chart.
(click to expand)


----------



## Boggo

or is it going to do this ?

(click to expand)


----------



## Frank D

*AUD/USD*

I still think it is going slightly higher (october highs), with a potential reversal down in the 3rd or 4th week of this month.

If AUD was going to continue down on Tuesday it would have remained
 below Tuesday's 50% level and headed lower.

But once it kicked back above during the US session the trend bias was 
to follow the overall trend.

Wednesday's levels as shown for the next 12 hours, at this stage I 
would focus on 41 to 85 pip ranges.


----------



## MRC & Co

MRC & Co said:


> Well it prooved that the RBA was a small fish in the sea in comparison with the BoJ, keeping the liquidity rally full blown!  Then Evans in the US basically saying US QE2 is going to be coming and looks like it will dwarf the Japanese attempt!  All great for the carry to blow full steam ahead.
> 
> Trade wars are the next thing heating up and look what could potentially derail all of this, but that shouldn't be an issue before G20.
> 
> All good for your gold stash Explod!




It's still all about the carry and personally I think parity is about to be decimated!  Both on AUDUSD and USDCAD!

Can't see this reversing until early next month.


----------



## professor_frink

MRC & Co said:


> It's still all about the carry and personally I think parity is about to be decimated!  Both on AUDUSD and USDCAD!
> 
> Can't see this reversing until early next month.




Whilst I can certainly see the reasoning there MRC, do you think that any effects of the upcoming QE have already been factored in? It's basically been THE talking point for the whole equity rally/USD selloff.

Just wondering if we'll see some short covering in the USD before the next fed meeting as there would be quite a few late comers to this party that a ripe for a massive squeeze


----------



## tech/a

MRC & Co said:


> It's still all about the carry and personally I think parity is about to be decimated!  Both on AUDUSD and USDCAD!
> 
> Can't see this reversing until early next month.




I think he's right.
If it powers into parity then its off.


----------



## doctorj

professor_frink said:


> Whilst I can certainly see the reasoning there MRC, do you think that any effects of the upcoming QE have already been factored in? It's basically been THE talking point for the whole equity rally/USD selloff.
> 
> Just wondering if we'll see some short covering in the USD before the next fed meeting as there would be quite a few late comers to this party that a ripe for a massive squeeze



Aus has the highest yield in the G20 last I looked (and it's only likely to increase with strong underlying inflation).  Throw in strong commodity prices driven by QE and shortages in softs, the macro picture is well supported too.  I posted some research a couple of weeks back that suggested AUD was a one way trade and whilst it won't be a one way street all the time, for the moment, it still looks like a one way trade.


----------



## Nimbin

I trade "from time to time" on news and fundamentals.
Taking a punt now on AUD, NZD, CAD to power upwards for a bit.
Good question as to how completely QE II has been priced in already.


----------



## Frank D

*AUD/USD*

Target on AUD will complete @ 9979, which aligns with Thursday's highs.

My view is a potential 3rd week reversal pattern (next week), but I need 
to see lesser timeframe patterns to help verify the pattern.

I think AUD will continue to trend upwards and break parity later this
 year and then into higher highs in 2011….

But the most robust trending pattern (after reaching .9979) is to see
 the market reverse down and then continue higher from November's
 50% level towards higher highs in the first Quarter for 2011


----------



## prawn_86

Frank D said:


> *AUD/USD*
> 
> Target on AUD will complete @ 9979, which aligns with Thursday's highs.
> 
> My view is a potential 3rd week reversal pattern (next week), but I need
> to see lesser timeframe patterns to help verify the pattern.
> 
> I think AUD will continue to trend upwards and break parity later this
> year and then into higher highs in 2011….
> 
> But the most robust trending pattern (after reaching .9979) is to see
> the market reverse down and then continue higher from November's
> 50% level towards higher highs in the first Quarter for 2011




Its going to be a sorry day for FX brokers when we get less AUD for a USD trade 

Not good for clients who locked in at 95 - 96 either....


----------



## MRC & Co

professor_frink said:


> Whilst I can certainly see the reasoning there MRC, do you think that any effects of the upcoming QE have already been factored in? It's basically been THE talking point for the whole equity rally/USD selloff.
> 
> Just wondering if we'll see some short covering in the USD before the next fed meeting as there would be quite a few late comers to this party that a ripe for a massive squeeze




It's hard to know what QE will be, but an 'open ended' outcome may actually be a lot bigger impact than 1tril, given it could mean 1.5tril.

UST 10 year yields could still head towards and hit 2% I think, based on a 1tril QE (someone else did the math on that, not me), so there is def still room for USD to weaken.

The reason the carry is so strong also, is that now there is Japan doing their own QE (HUGE fundamental shift for Japan) and there will likely be further to come from them also given exporters are REALLY struggling now, intervention is being sold off, so they will simply undertake the IMF proposition and that is increasing Rinban buying (effectively QE), which will have a big Yen impact.  BoE is another one also looking at QE of their own, even if the market is probably overplaying that possibility in the short-run, it is still altering sentiment.

This is all eerely remeniscent of the Plaza accord, without an actual agreement, but everybody pumping the liquidity in, you will get the high yielders rocketing and the carry currencies struggling.  

The odd thing at the moment is the JPY strength, but think this may change later this month ahead of BoJ where they will likely do further easing and heading into Fed where USD may see a squeeze.  This is where the carry could shift more towards the Yen as opposed to the USD.  This is where we may see some quick position unwinds in IMM positioning as per the day the RBA last left rates unchanged when they were meant to rise back in May 2010.

But take a look at AUDUSD chart, if that is not a parabolic move in the making with the final leg beginning now, then I don't know what is.............


----------



## professor_frink

Doc, MRC,

thanks for the thoughts

Been struggling to get my head around the whole situation of late, so appreciate any comments.

Just on the prospect of other govts running their own QE programs MRC, was going through some of Bernanke's comments from earlier last decade and one of the few things he talked about that I haven't really seen done yet was this:

http://www.federalreserve.gov/BOARDDOCS/SPEECHES/2002/20021121/default.htm


> The Fed can inject money into the economy in still other ways. For example, the Fed has the authority to buy foreign government debt, as well as domestic government debt. Potentially, this class of assets offers huge scope for Fed operations, as the quantity of foreign assets eligible for purchase by the Fed is several times the stock of U.S. government debt.




Rather than the fed directly buying up OS govt debt, a quiet agreement between some of the bigger nations to pump liquidity into the system is basically doing the same thing without the perceived politics of intervening without some kind of accord, or trying to come to some kind of agreement without sparking fresh speculation about the China situation.

What scares me a little though is if this does take place en masse, it basically takes care of pretty well every option that he ever outlined as a tool to fight deflation from a monetary policy  perspective(that I've read anyway). Hoping that it works


----------



## MRC & Co

Yeh, that is an interesting point Prof and your right, if that doesn't work, they are in Japanese style lost decades of deflation.

But China has basically been doing this in Europe, whilst at the same time, being able to get high yielding peripheral debt assets well in excess of what Australia, Canada, Norway or New Zealand can provide, whilst backed by the EU.  Just one reason why the EUR has been so strong recently.  At the same time, this has allowed them to see a fall in USDCNY, without actually altering the value against a trade weighted basket.  Very very smart those Chinese are!  

Word is, they are doing the same with JGBs to hold the JPY up against CNY (right near a big resistance zone now).  Japan is firing up about it, along with Korean moves, which leads me to believe they are going to take some very very decisive action on October 30 I believe (BoJ).  This way, they won't be seen as 'intervening' in currency, simply controlling their own yield curve, which has far more drastic implications on currencies.


----------



## Frank D

*AUD/USD monthly and daily Range*

AUD currently stalled around the October highs @ 9979. 

My view is that the AUD will try and make it's way down towards 
the November 50% levels during the 3rd or 4th Week of this month,
 and then make higher highs in the first Quarter of 2011 (break parity)


*Thursday*:- I would have preferred price to have moved down further and be trading 
around .9840 (#3) than where it is now.

Trend guide for the next 12 hours as shown in the right chart 
@ .9945/54.




*Spiral points*

As mentioned two days ago (above)… _“at this stage I  would focus on 41 to 85 pip ranges”_

What we can see in the left chart is a 85 pip reversal from the highs on Thursday, but as the trend
 is moving down we have 41 pip spiral tops occurring during the day, providing traders 
with amply opportunities of getting back into the trend (if you were
 screen trading overnight)

The idea is to find  ‘*observed phenomena’ *and use it to your advantage once the parameters align....

 "sell higher opens using resistance"

 "& buy lower opens using support"

*whilst optimizing the daily price action within the larger timeframe cycles*.


----------



## prawn_86

Sorry Frank, but i struggle to understand your charts.

As far as i understand on the monthly chart you are targetting around 0.9350? And daily you expect it to stay above 0.99 in a fairly tight range?


----------



## Frank D

I believe for the AUD to continue higher it has to come down and
 test support during this quarterly cycle, as it has hit upper resistance
 levels @.7979

Now I would like for AUD to turn on a dime and continue down from next
 week (3rd Week reversal), but I know that might not happen.
 However, to verify a reversal pattern in the larger cycles I 
would need to see a *breakout of the 5-day lows*

If that happens then Price may go down to .9351 or it may not during
 this Quarterly cycle (next line of least resistance), but that would be
 my ideal pattern because the level that will decide on whether AUD 
goes higher will  be the November 50% levels (not yet decided), and then extend up towards higher highs in 2011.

When *day trading* you simply optmise the patterns on a daily basis
 and decide on where to enter and where to exit using pattern 
formations that exist in all derivative markets :- TIME or Price.

What happened if the 85 pip reversal occurred during the first 12 
hours? then all the levels in the next 12 hours shift and change.

Or, what would  happen if the AUD actually reversed and
 was trading  now around 93.40 (#3), it would help verify my 
overall expectation much better than where it is currently trading on Friday.

Simply because if price is trading above #2, it can continue up 
towards Friday's highs (#4)

do I want to trade longs on friday?

no because it does not fit in with my overall view of the current
 cycles (higher timeframe resistance)


----------



## Boggo

Finally it made it...

(click to expand)


----------



## Whiskers

Boggo said:


> Finally it made it...
> 
> (click to expand)




Yeah, corresponded with a simillarly sharp spike to dip it's toes in a new low (since 1995) for the USD/JPY, then rebound more, and more quickly.

Is this a sign traders have had their targets triggered and will be more happy to sit on the sidelines for a bit or re-position for the next dynamic!?

The US runs the risk of inflating too many of the wrong things eg fuel prices and basic (imported) consumer goods if it keeps this tactic up for much longer, at the expense of eating more into consumer savings and income and jeopardizing a better longer term recovery.

But given the overall strength of the Aus economy, it seems to me that the AUD probably won't decline in proportion to the USD recovery in the medium to longer term... unless or untill the Fed starts to increases rates, then there may be a sharp move.

It seems that inventories are continuing to rise staedily, but manufacturing seems to be only slightly contributing to that.

Apart from circulating more cash into and trying to stimulate the local economy, are there any other significant reasons for the US to keep it's $ low atm?

Given the historical strength of the 'consumer' element of the US economy, are their export industries, going to make up enough to offsett increases in imported concumer costs? I doubt it.


----------



## MRC & Co

Soft CPI and dovish Bernanke still couldn't spark a move higher, a lot used that move up to take profits.  Big volumes, but still a lot of USD sellers in there.  

I wouldn't be on a move either way at the moment, wait and see mode for me, bit of no mans land at the moment I think.


----------



## Miro

There is a good chance it will reverse pretty soon

I remember similar news a year ago

http://www.news.com.au/business/aus...r-over-greenback/story-e6frfm1i-1225939655139

_"Aussie dollar set to hit US$1.10 *in weeks*"_


----------



## Frank D

*AUD/USD*

AUD resistance in October @ 9979, with a precise Friday 5-day high @ 1.00

Trend guide for this week is .9890

If the AUD is going to follow a 3rd Week reversal pattern down, then I'll know
 by Tuesday or Wednesday this week.....

 confirmed by a 5-day low breakout.


----------



## Frank D

*AUD/USD*

AUD is pushing down from .9890 towards Monday's lows & the Weekly
 50% level with a partial exit zone around the Aussie timezone @ .9826

ideal pattern would be to follow an orderly pattern down during US
 timeframe zone, as long is it remains below the key levels in the daily range.

Monday doesn't normally breakout of the lows.

Keep an eye on Tuesday.


----------



## Frank D

*AUD/USD*

If AUD is going to follow a Tuesday 'sell' pattern, as part of a 3-week 
reversal then price will need to drop back down from .9934 and be
 trading below .9907 during the next 12 hours and then continue down.

.9907 is Tuesday's 50% level

Otherwise the current price action suggests robust support and
 potential upside.


----------



## Frank D

*AUD/USD *

Tuesday selling hitting AUD. with a 85 pip reversal down from today's 
highs.

To verify the continuation of more selling on Tuesday, Tuesday's lows 
need to breakout:- 5-day low breakout

The current patterns are playing out as they would normally play out, I
 just need to see follow through in today's price action


----------



## prawn_86

Loving the updates Frank. Great insight


----------



## hotbmw

Fantastic Frank. 

What are your thoughts now after the overnight sharp drop?


----------



## Boggo

It may follow this pattern down to around 96c.

Just my 

(click to expand)


----------



## professor_frink

Boggo said:


> It may follow this pattern down to around 96c.
> 
> Just my
> 
> (click to expand)




I'm inclined to agree there Boggo. If that plays out, I won't really be expecting too much  either way before the next FOMC meeting


----------



## Frank D

*AUD/USD*

There is a breakout in the 5-day low on Tuesday, therefore there is 
an expectation that the AUD is moving down into Wednesday's lows, as
 part of a larger timeframe reversal pattern from the October highs.

Whilst price is above 97.05 is it moving upwards during the 12 hour 
period.

*There are two possible patterns:- *

#1 hits the daily 50% level @ 9777 stalls and then moves back down
 into .9705  (and lower)

#2 or it follows a spike upwards into the next spiral filter @ .9814, which
 will then be an ideal level to short trade from....

As it matches the breakout from Yesterday's lows, retesting it and hopefully moving back down with a spiral top.

if short or holding shorts from Yesterday, you don't want to see price 
above .9815.


----------



## Boggo

Frank D said:


> *AUD/USD*
> 
> if short or holding shorts from Yesterday, you don't want to see price
> above .9815.




Agree, if it does go above 98 then I am back to the drawing board, I am expecting the .9775 area to be significant resistance.


----------



## Boggo

Boggo said:


> I am expecting the .9775 area to be significant resistance.




Reversed at .9777, initial short target now .9729 for 33 pips.


----------



## Boggo

Stopped out at .9778


----------



## Frank D

*AUD/USD*

Wednesday failed to continue down as part of the larger cycle
 reversal pattern from 9979 and Tuesday’s breakout

My Preferred pattern was for AUD to move up into .9814 and the spiral 
top during the first 12 hours and get sold down during the US time zone.

Except the opposite occurred, and the US time zone pushed price higher
 85 pips

I would like to think price will continue down based on the larger 
cycle patterns, but based on the current price action Thursday can
 push upwards.


----------



## Kremmen

Boggo said:


> Agree, if it does go above 98 then I am back to the drawing board, I am expecting the .9775 area to be significant resistance.




This, like many comments here, make it sound like the AUD is the side of the equation that is driving the result. But it's all about the USD suddenly gaining value. We're just along for the ride. AUD value has been holding roughly stable against some other major currencies and has rocketed to and then past CAD parity.


----------



## prawn_86

Kremmen said:


> This, like many comments here, make it sound like the AUD is the side of the equation that is driving the result. But it's all about the USD suddenly gaining value. We're just along for the ride. AUD value has been holding roughly stable against some other major currencies and has rocketed to and then past CAD parity.




Yes current AUD/USD rally is all based on USD weakness as opposed to AUD strength. Can also see this in the way the EUR/USD has moved over the last few weeks


----------



## Frank D

Kremmen said:


> This, like many comments here, make it sound
> like the AUD is the side of the equation that is driving the result. But it's
> all about the USD suddenly gaining value. We're just along for the ride. .




*USD Index *

Yes, it is all about the USD losing strength, that’s why is it imperative 
to keep a track of the USD index. (chart below) 

USD isn’t gaining strength, it has simply found support in October, 
whilst other currencies have hit resistance in October.

Imo opinion, USD  is setting up from further falls in the 4th quarter and going lower into 2011,

Which why I’m bullish on the AUD to go higher, as previously mentioned

And it gives some reason why currencies didn’t continue lower after the first
 2-days this week, as the USD remains below higher timeframe breakout patterns in the
 4th Quarter. (yellow)

But to help validate my long term views of the USD going lower and currencies
 going higher, I would still like to see the next trends originate 
from November, as per my previous posts suggested

Therefore whilst we are in October, I will continue to focus on the
 short of the AUD & Euro and filter out those expectations on a daily basis.


----------



## sinner

I like the November theme frank. Not sure if I agree with everything that's been said recently, but whatever.

Here's a quote from Sean Lee at forexlive, today, sort of concurs with you:


> The theme in this office seems to be that the big looming risk events will encourage more serious profit taking over the next 10 days before the USD selling resumes in force.
> 
> Mid-term elections on Nov 2nd, FOMC on Nov 3rd, US unemployment on 5th and the G20 on Nov 10th/11th are all big risk events. Volatility will remain very high, the USD will be sold on any big rallies as sentiment remains bearish but USD dips will also be used to book profits over the next few weeks. *Then in mid-November the USD-selling will resume big time.*


----------



## Whiskers

sinner said:


> I like the November theme frank. Not sure if I agree with everything that's been said recently, but whatever.
> 
> Here's a quote from Sean Lee at forexlive, today, sort of concurs with you:




Apart from the "Mid-term elections on Nov 2nd, FOMC on Nov 3rd", our RBA meets on the 2nd Nov also. 

Unless something substantial happens in the meantime, wouldn't the RBA be inclined to hold rates until they saw any change of direction in policy in the US after the mid term elections and the FOMC meeting the next day?

I'm inclined to think they will hold, considering it's the start of the Xmas shopping season which they would not want to kick too hard in the guts... and consequently see a few dissapointed investors flee the AUD.


----------



## Boggo

Gone long, just 5 units for a giggle on a quiet Friday arvo.

(click to expand)


----------



## Boggo

Moved the stop to breakeven when price hit 100% of risk, got stopped out for loss of 2 pips.

(click to expand)


----------



## gt88

Just want to say thanks for the daily updates guys. Im new to forex trading and quite frankly dont understand the charts, but continually find myself in this thread reading the daily updates.


----------



## Frank D

*AUD/USD*

Last Week AUD hit resistance @ .9979 but remained within the weekly
 levels from Wendesday onwards.

This week has seen a retest of the highs @ 9979, whilst the Weekly 
levels have shifted.

Trend guide on Tuesday is .9889

I continue to look at AUD on the short side, whilst in October.


----------



## Frank D

*AUD/USD*

 would have preferred more selling on Tuesday, as it has failed to breakout
 of the lows, and is still above the Weekly 50% level.


Random trend guide/support @ 9834-39


----------



## Whiskers

Frank D said:


> *AUD/USD*
> 
> * would have preferred more selling on Tuesday*, as it has failed to breakout
> of the lows, and is still above the Weekly 50% level.
> 
> 
> Random trend guide/support @ 9834-39




CPI figures came out 5 min after your post... and got a bit of selling going!

.7% should be low enough to put the brakes on another RBA rise next week.


----------



## Frank D

*AUD/USD *

Last week of October and it is trying it's best to move towards the
November 50% levels.

Currently there's a breakout of the 5-day lows on Wednesday.

At this stage I would continue to treat AUD as potentially moving into a
 lower low by Friday (random length).

As it is either going to find support around the Weekly lows (as shown above)

*or drive down further as per previous charts towards 92.50 to
 93.50*, as part of a larger reversal pattern.


----------



## Boggo

The 4 hour trend initial target is 9624 on this plan, its playing the game so far.
I am not on this either, I have missed a couple of good trades over the last few days.

(click to expand)


----------



## Whiskers

Ooops... meant to put this in the XAO thread, but I suppose it's equally applicable here.


Just been reading an article that reflects my concern that the USD correction is over cooked and artifically driving commodity prices too high.

Something is going to break soon. T'Ã­s a question of how much the surge in commodity prices (in particular) to near pre GFC highs is just exchange rate or inflated by speculation on the USD weakness.

This is one hell of a balancing act they're trying to pull off... and the longer it goes on the more I think it may rebound or recoil (in the case of commodities) with avengeance.

http://finance.yahoo.com/news/Recov...8.html?x=0&sec=topStories&pos=4&asset=&ccode=


----------



## Frank D

*AUD/USD*


Breakout of Wednesday and I would normally look for a continuation of 
the move down into .9605...

However, the weekly levels came into play @ .9657

There is a possibility that Thursday continues down, as part of a break
 and extend pattern from Wednesday's lows 

However, whilst price is above 9715 the short-term move is back towards
 the daily 50% levels.


----------



## Governor

You guys do a great job at the daily analysis. Just wanted to say Thanks


----------



## Frank D

*AUD/USD*

AUD consolidating between Weekly levels

Trend bias is based on price remaining below 9806-08 with a downward
 bias, but more likely to remain between the channels 41 to 85 pips

Last day of the month and October resistance levels shift
 upwards.

Preferred pattern still remains price testing the November 50% level 
(moving down) and then heading upwards.


----------



## Boggo

This is what I see at the moment, target around the 96 area is still looking good, some shorter term long signals but they are opposing the longer term trend.  My 
Would like to have been on that 4 hour signal from the top.

(click to expand)


----------



## Whiskers

Boggo said:


> This is what I see at the moment, target around the 96 area is still looking good, some shorter term long signals but they are opposing the longer term trend.  My
> Would like to have been on that 4 hour signal from the top.
> 
> (click to expand)




I'm in the process of updating my EW count a litle on a number of charts and am inclined to agree the AUD may go a tad higher before coming back down, based on my XAU chart more than anything else... ie, I think my strongest signal is in the XAU chart that suggests it needs to go a bit higher to the 1,350's to finish a little corrective pattern before resuming down, no doubt just reflecting a last attempt for the USD to go lower and the AUD will simply reflect that.


----------



## nielsend

Scale in or Scale out of a position, or both? I've also posted this in Trading Strategies etc, but as I currently trade FX decided to post it here as well.

Curious to know how many of you, that actively day trade and swing trade full time, pyramid in to your positions as it moves into profit, as opposed to taking the larger position at the start of the trade and then scale out? The majority of books I’ve read on successful traders tend to take the approach of building on a good trade. 
The problem for me is determining when to add to a position, that’s the hard part?


----------



## Frank D

*AUD/USD*

October resistance levels have shifted higher (resistance @ 9979) 
disappears)

November highs @ 1.0161

Trend guide on Monday is .9853, which can see a push up towards .9926

I would still keep an eye on anything below the Weekly and daily 50% 
levels today.

My gut feeling tells me it's not ready to break parity this week, but a shift
 in market dynamics does give it a reason to do so, and also above 
the Weekly 50% level.


----------



## MRC & Co

RBA tomorrow followed by Fed Thursday morning our time.  AUDUSD will be at 1.02 or 0.95-96 in very short order one way or the other I think by the end of this wk.  Which one?  That's the hard part, but wouldn't look to be fading ranges anymore, that game of the last couple wks is over.


----------



## Frank D

*AUD/USD *

Flat Trading day on Monday remaining in a reliable range of 85 pips 
during each 12 hour period.

And waiting for Tuesday's rate ann.


----------



## sinner

I think the duty of the 0.97 breach has been completed. We touched parity. I am waiting for a new low so I can start a short cycle. Too high up to buy into the current long cycle, but there was a inside bar on the 28th which is still technically valid for the uber bulls.

Less aggressive players would probably view this as an exhaustive or alternatively, profit-taking range. A New York close outside the range would be a good indicator as to what is coming down the pipe. 



Interesting notes:
* IMF report calling AUD overvalued and looking to 5-15% drop in AUDUSD rate as "conditions in US improve".
* Huge 2.5% move in AUDNZD since the 27th of October.
* 10-year US Treasury yields appear to be in bottoming formation, could be supportive of a rate hike.


----------



## Kremmen

11:37pm. 1 AUD = 1.00116 USD. Awesome!


----------



## >Apocalypto<

Kremmen said:


> 11:37pm. 1 AUD = 1.00116 USD. Awesome!




not really cuz i was earning usd at the time!!!!!!!! freaked me out to see what I was earning net was less then my profit!


----------



## Frank D

*AUD/USD*

October high resistance disappears @ 9979 and now heading up towards 
November highs.

Helped by the Fed's decision yesterday to start printing money, which effectively says...

 'devalue the dollar'

Aussie dollar has further to go, even if it hits resistance around
 November's highs


----------



## Frank D

*AUD/USD*

AUD completes the move into November highs.

I would think over the next 12 hours that the market will stall and 
consolidate whilst below 1.0174.

don't be surprised to see AUD continue up into Friday's highs, during US timezone

However, in the short-term (next Week) I'd be looking for patterns in the 
daily range to retest this week's breakout @ 1.0006


----------



## MRC & Co

Frank D said:


> *AUD/USD*
> 
> don't be surprised to see AUD continue up into Friday's highs, during US timezone
> 
> However, in the short-term (next Week) I'd be looking for patterns in the
> daily range to retest this week's breakout @ 1.0006




Yeh, I think so, wouldn't be surprised to see a few of these guys getting excited about QE2 taken out on a dollar grind higher now, before then undertaking another leg whereby AUD could hit 1.05.  I'm staying relatively small long with bids scaling down to 1.0010 personally.


----------



## Logique

CAD -USD = 0.9969
AUD - USD = 1.0138
CAD-AUD = 0.9833

Now that is sweet. Take that Canadians! ...although Canadian exports now become comparatively more competitive...on second thoughts let's not have a currency war with our friends.


----------



## Frank D

MRC & Co said:


> Yeh, I think so, wouldn't be surprised to see a few of these guys getting excited about QE2 taken out on a dollar grind higher now, before then undertaking another leg whereby AUD could hit 1.05.




There will be minor reversals from higher timeframe levels, as price hits resistance

But fundamentally things have changed once the Fed starts to print
 money, which effectively devalues the dollar.

How much?

I don’t know, but I would think around 10-15% based on $600 billion USD.

Technically, the primary cycles won’t be confirmed until the end of 2010, 
but already the price action in November and the 4th Quarter suggests
 more gains into higher highs in 2011


----------



## Frank D

*AUD/USD*

Friday saw a 85 pip reversal down into intra-day support levels and
 then another 85 pip up move during the US time zone.

Breakout of the Weekly highs @ 1.0006 can see more gains towards 
next week's highs, but at the same time I'll be looking for a minor
 reversal pattern back to retest this week's breakout.

I still think there are more gains in AUD, which could see this month
 continue towards 1.041


----------



## nielsend

I predominantly trade the AUD.USD intraday, looking to take a few pips out of the market on a daily basis as my main source of income. Last week I finally gave in and have upgraded to the latest TWS for Interactive Brokers. My reluctance to do so was due to the changes to the booktrader screen. Previously orders could be transmitted direct. Now an 'Order Confirmation' popup appears which adds time and the chance of missing an entry. IB has been the choice of broker due to tight spreads, low fees and free data feed into Amibroker.
Can anyone suggest an FX broker that allows orders to be executed directly to market without any form of confirmation, and provides data feed into AB? Or alternatively has a decent charting package and high liquidity.


----------



## Trend Hunter

Great to see the AUD/USD break the 100 level on higher volume last week, after the FED announcement.

Interestingly many indexes around the world gapped open that day with news.   

I'm expecting the 100 level to hold, but I believe we will see the gap filled (FXA). Whether that's in the short term or a little down the track, I'm thinking the short term.


----------



## nielsend

nielsend said:


> I predominantly trade the AUD.USD intraday, looking to take a few pips out of the market on a daily basis as my main source of income. Last week I finally gave in and have upgraded to the latest TWS for Interactive Brokers. My reluctance to do so was due to the changes to the booktrader screen. Previously orders could be transmitted direct. Now an 'Order Confirmation' popup appears which adds time and the chance of missing an entry. IB has been the choice of broker due to tight spreads, low fees and free data feed into Amibroker.
> Can anyone suggest an FX broker that allows orders to be executed directly to market without any form of confirmation, and provides data feed into AB? Or alternatively has a decent charting package and high liquidity.




Ignore the previous. Never used the FXTrader with IB, and wasn't aware you could transmit instantaneously on this.


----------



## Frank D

*USD Index (left chart) & AUD/USD  (right chart)*

*USD Index* :-As per USD Index weekly report:-


There is an expectation that the USD index would 
move back towards the November 50% level at the start of this week,
 whilst currencies come under pressure

There is also a breakout of the October and 3rd quarter lows, 
therefore there’s an expectation that the trend is moving lower, after
 testing the November 50% level and also the 3-week highs.

This could happen later this week:- Thursday or Friday, but it might 
also happen next week, *as long as Friday closes below those levels.*

*AUD/USD:- *

As Per previous post... expectation of a reversal.

We have a minor reversal pattern in the AUD using a higher weekly open
 and November high resistance back towards retesting last week’s 
breakout @ 1.0006.

_We have two patterns in the AUD to keep an eye on…._

#1 finds support around Wednesday’s daily low and swings upwards.

#2 November highs completes the 2nd month wave pattern during the
 4th Quarter (October & then November) and the AUD moves into 
a consolidation pattern within the Weekly ranges until the following
month

*Minor levels in the daily range should give enough clues which way the AUD heading*


----------



## Boggo

Nice little swing off an ABC correction in progress at the moment.

(click to expand)


----------



## Frank D

*AUD/USD *


As mentioned yesterday….

It was how Wednesday’s lows were going to play out  to see if the AUD 
was going to swing upwards & continue towards the Weekly highs later
 this week.

There was a breakout on Tuesday (intraday) therefore there was 
an expectation that Wednesday would make lower lows, with the lows
 @ .9983 providing support.

Wednesday remaining within it’s 85 pip range

The most robust pattern for the trend moving higher was then 
Thursday’s open above 1.0031 and a continuation back towards 
Thursday highs.

There was an initial spike during the past hour of 41 pips…however it
 looks like fake move, which could see more weakness in the short-term,
 as price is being pushed down from the 5-day 50% level @ 1.0068

It doesn’t surprise me if there is more weakness, as the AUD is coming
 down from the November highs, which can often result in a lower
 weekly close.

Thursday's Trend guide 1.0031-38 (3pm)

This week’s support remains around .9961  (Friday’s close)


----------



## Frank D

*AUD/USD*

Yesterday’s price action was either going to swing up from Thursday’s 
lower open and move back towards the November highs...

Or follow the higher Weekly open and reversal down from the November
 highs towards a lower Weekly close on Friday.

First 12 hour pattern was to find support @ 1.0031 and continue 
upwards. (#1)

Instead the US timezone  (2nd 12 hour)  (#2) sent the AUD down into
 the Thursday's lows

And Friday has continued down (#3) 

I wouldn't be buying longs below Friday's lows


----------



## OllieG

I agree, its probably more so the time to short the dollar now...I believe that the USD should not rocket much past parity for the time being. 

The charts above are very good - nice analysis.


----------



## nielsend

its probably more so the time to short the dollar now...

Bombs away


----------



## Alpha_Bet

nielsend said:


> its probably more so the time to short the dollar now...
> 
> Bombs away




Bit early I think. @this moment CME Futs  trading .9873. SPOT FX .9910
Short AUD CME Futs @.9930/40. Spot equivalent .9960/70.
Then 350 pip drop............. well that's my plan. Not to be taken as trading advice.


----------



## Alpha_Bet

nielsend said:


> its probably more so the time to short the dollar now...
> 
> Bombs away




Good call


----------



## iced earth

_*AUD/USD - 15 NOV 2010:*_

As it s been mentioned on 29 sept 2010 
https://www.aussiestockforums.com/forums/showpost.php?p=583169&postcount=52

 the long term resistance line has been passed up, this is very important for this pair and we could be witnessed stronger AUD against USD in long term. now after AUD/USD became more than 1 , we can see that the  pair reaches the important 1.618 Fibo (pic 2) 

also negative divergence between MACD Histogram and Pair and touch the  upper line (resistance) of the upward channel. we could expect correction until it touches uper line (support) of this channel. If this line wont be able to (I guess it will)  hold it we might see AUD/USD near 0.91 again (pic 1)


----------



## Trend Hunter

Nice analysis there Iced Earth. I like the fact that you have looked at Multiple time-frames.

With the Weekly Trend still quite bullish and the Daily and Hourly still looking range bound (at the moment), I think its a bit premature to be going short on the AUD/USD (at least with my trading system anyways).


----------



## nielsend

Trend Hunter said:


> Nice analysis there Iced Earth. I like the fact that you have looked at Multiple time-frames.
> 
> With the Weekly Trend still quite bullish and the Daily and Hourly still looking range bound (at the moment), I think its a bit premature to be going short on the AUD/USD (at least with my trading system anyways).




HHHmmmnnnn - not so sure, just cracked down below .9800, looking rather bearish on my chart


----------



## iced earth

Trend Hunter said:


> Nice analysis there Iced Earth. I like the fact that you have looked at Multiple time-frames.
> 
> With the Weekly Trend still quite bullish and the Daily and Hourly still looking range bound (at the moment), I think its a bit premature to be going short on the AUD/USD (at least with my trading system anyways).




Thanks Trend Hunter;

I believe in mid & long  term the possibility of bullish is higher than bearish. in short term we might see down till the support line ( lower line of the channel) any further low and it might go down to 0.91 ...

Cheers...


----------



## Frank D

*AUD/USD*

AUD continues the rotation down from the November highs into the
 lower weekly levels.

We have a similar pattern in October, but the market dynamics
 has changed and I don't think November is going to find support at
 this Weekly level @ .9763 and continue higher for the rest of the month.

What I want to see is how the Weekly timeframe (Friday) closes in
 relation to .9641, as this is my support level for November.

Bearish pattern in the USD index has changed, with Monday moving above 
the November 50% level and continuing higher, which may continue in 
the short-term into higher highs by Friday.


----------



## Frank D

*AUD/USD*

I was looking for the trend to continue down into the Weekly lows @ 
9629, however a shift in intra-day dynamics on Wednesday during the
 US timezone changed that, resulting in the Weekly level @ 9763 
and matching filter push the AUD into a higher daily close.

Thursday’s resistance @ the 50% level failed during European trading 
hours and now the AUD looks to be moving back towards the Weekly 
50% level and Friday’s highs.

I would look at Friday’s highs as resistance during the Asian timezone, 
but that can change 12 hours later.


----------



## Whiskers

Importand juncture here I think.

Bounced off the shoulder for the moment, but the weekly chart suggests it must go soon... probably shake .93 around for awhile.

Thought I'd colour up a gloomy day with some of the main indicators on the weekly chart as to why I didn't initially expect it to break parity. The signs were heavily bearish. 

Just goes to show what a bit of push and shove with a bit of extra cash can do. 

If this comes off quicker than the price of commodities, which it may do with a bit of help from North Korea, we should get a bit of a bounce back on our share market.

I really, really hope so now, cos my first long (share) order just got hit as I was posting.


----------



## Edwood

hi all - some major divergence on long term view too fwiw

(Not sure what degree this count fits within, but it looks pretty clear that we're in a final leg - which may have topped already)


----------



## Edwood

targeting the w4 low could be interesting Whiskers


----------



## Whiskers

Edwood said:


> hi all - some major divergence on long term view too fwiw
> 
> (Not sure what degree this count fits within, but it looks pretty clear that we're in a final leg - which may have topped already)




Yep, that agrees with my count.



Edwood said:


> targeting the w4 low could be interesting Whiskers




Yeah, I'll have a little wager on it reacking the start of w4... but the bottom of w4 may be a bit optomistic, (or is that pessimistic ) in the short term, but it would be one hell of a boost for our commodity exporters... oh, and my currently acquiring share portfolio.


----------



## Frank D

*AUD/USD*


November's highs completed the 2 month wave pattern extension in the
 4th Quarter resulting in a reversal down into the December 50% level...

If AUD is going to continue towards higher highs in 2011 and
 follow an orderly pattern upwards...

then any further gains will depend on next week's 50% level.


----------



## Frank D

*AUD Weekly and Daily range*

AUD trying to follow the December highs @ 1.02 by next week.

Continuation of the upward trend after finding support @ the 
November 50% levels has remained within orderly weekly patterns…

With the Weekly 50% level providing support 3-weeks ago, as per 
previous post.

*Trend guide over the next 12 hours is defined by .9991*


----------



## Frank D

*AUD/USD:- Dilernia model*

My view on the AUD is to continue higher in December

Trend guide from 11am today is 1.0030

don't trade longs below that level after the Weekly highs have already
 been reached.

Merry Christmas!


----------



## Frank D

*AUD/USD:-  Dilernia model*

Expectation AUD is moving towards the December highs over the next couple of days.

Trend guide @ 11am 1.0098

 I'd limit trading longs below that level today, after this Week's highs
 @ 1.0111 have already been reached


----------



## Frank D

*AUD/USD :- Dilernia Model*

AUD has risen 41 pips from the previous 12 hour lows (partial exit)

Target remains Wednesday's highs (trailing support has risen to 1.0119
 confirmed @ 11pm)

Overall target remains December highs @ 1.02,  and then with a possible continuation 
towards January highs


----------



## IB12

Could hit 1.02-1.03 by the looks of things. 
Not sure, since the market is quite thin atm. 
But certainly 1.02+ doesn't seem implausible, since most other currencies are doing poorly in comparison. AUD is the new 'safe haven'.


----------



## Market Depth

Just dropped a nice short on the little aussie on the 1 minute chart from 1.01335 down to 1.01115 for 220 pips. for around $960 profit. I'm long now ATM up about $200 on the 1 minute chart. Plenty of action on the little aussie battler today


----------



## Frank D

Market Depth said:


> Just dropped a nice short on the little aussie on the 1 minute chart from 1.01335 down to 1.01115 for 220 pips. for around $960 profit




I wouldn't call that 220 pips,  more like 22 pips

work on 4 decimals not 5.


----------



## IB12

Market Depth said:


> Just dropped a nice short on the little aussie on the 1 minute chart from 1.01335 down to 1.01115 for 220 pips. for around $960 profit. I'm long now ATM up about $200 on the 1 minute chart. Plenty of action on the little aussie battler today




Also, how do you earn $960 profit on 22 pips? 
that means you not using standard futures contracts. i.e. $43 per pip. 
so you're quite highly leveraged I guess 50-100 to one times. 
not unless you're just using a paper account since the difference between 220 vs. 22 pips couldn't be figured out.


----------



## Market Depth

Whoops! sorry guys my mistake It was late and I was tired. Just practicing a short strategy on the aussie for 2011, if the US econmy picks back up, still early days, all paper trades at this stage on the short. A longer term short is the plan. Just honing for when the time comes. Trying to calculate the best margin to use to manage risk/reward.

I've got a healthy account to start with, i've come over to this side of town from the stockmarket only 2 years ago, just expanding my horizons, still learning, need to learn more technical and economic indicators better in forex,which is a challenge, as I'm just an ordinary tape reader


----------



## IB12

Market Depth said:


> Whoops! sorry guys my mistake It was late and I was tired. Just practicing a short strategy on the aussie for 2011, if the US econmy picks back up, still early days, all paper trades at this stage on the short. A longer term short is the plan. Just honing for when the time comes. Trying to calculate the best margin to use to manage risk/reward.




Well since last night AUD/USD has jumped by about 50 pips. Long term short might be painful if you're too leveraged, especially as some of the institutions forecast the 'aussie battler' hitting 1.10.


----------



## Market Depth

Yes I've been reading the forecasts. I'm in no rush, I'll be patient, and just watch how things develop. The FX isn't my 'bread and Butter' so to speak. I just have it here watching how the pairs trade. Not sure how much leaverage to use? Any help with this would be great.


----------



## Frank D

*AUD/USD Dilernia model*


December highs reached precisely... and that completes the entire 4th Quarter pattern.

Note:- there is a breakout of the current Weekly highs, therefore it can continue
 up towards  next week's highs

*my expectation continues to be, there will be higher highs in 2011 ;- minimum
 move (January highs)*

However, once these December highs have been reached the *trailing Weekly
 levels* come into play from next week.

If there's any weakness in the short term, then the *next long set-up *
would be based using the *Weekly lows*.

If that happens, this can then provide the next *support level for a 
move towards higher highs *in 2011 later in January.


----------



## Frank D

Frank D said:


> *AUD/USD Dilernia model*
> 
> Once these December highs have been reached the * Weekly
> levels* come into play from next week.
> 
> If there's any weakness in the short term, then the *next long set-up *
> would be based using the *Weekly lows*




As per Previous post....

AUD has come down towards the Weekly lows, and *my expectation is that the
 trend will continue towards higher highs in 2011 :- $1.06 *

However, those Weekly lows are below a critical trend guide @ 1.0007 during the
 first Quarter:- January 50% level.

Based on the current price action, AUD can follow a double Weekly low pattern
 into next week's lows, whilst it is below 1.0007

Therefore in the short-term, there needs to be validating patterns to verify my view 
of the trend moving higher..

At this stage AUD could continue to consolidate around these levels for a number
 of weeks, and until the start of the following month.

*Trade set-ups are based on the 5-day range and 12 hour patterns.*


----------



## Frank D

*AUD Weekly and Daily range*

AUD has continued down into the Weekly lows @ .9830, and using today's daily range
 @ 9937/51 (support) is likely to continue back towards 1.0007.

1.0007 is a critical trend line during this month, but it's also matched with a
*Thursday high pattern at the same level, which will often act as 
resistance.*

However, employment numbers come out at 11:30am, this will determine whether
 AUD continues higher validated with a break (or not)


----------



## Frank D

*AUD Weekly and Daily range (Dilernia Model)*

Swing back towards 1.0007 failed to continue higher.

What I needed to see was the first 12 hour pattern breakout, as the 2nd 
12 hour pattern had a change in cycle forming resistance.

no probability pattern for Friday


----------



## starman45

This week the price is entered in compression, around support 9900.
The sellers were able to close below it; this may suggest a likely reversal of the immediate trend.
Chart daily.


----------



## Frank D

*AUD monthly and Weekly*

AUD range bound between last week's lows and the January 50% level @ 1.0007

My view continues to be that the AUD will continue to move towards higher highs
 in 2011, but not whilst it's below 1.0007.

AUD remains choppy, and it might take the last week of the current month to
 decide whether it's going up or down.

Currently forming a higher low with this week's price action above .9882.

*no probability pattern for Tuesday*


----------



## Frank D

*AUD Weekly and Daily range*

1.0007 continues to stall the market, but we have the same pattern as last Thursday.

As long as it remains above 9978 the trend bias is upwards during the first 12 hours

Wednesday will need to breakout of 1.0033 (Weekly 50% level & 5-day highs)
 if it's going to continue to move upwards


----------



## Frank D

*AUD/USD (Dilernia model)*


AUD has stalled at the highs and Weekly 50% level during the first 12 hours.

Whether it continues to trend upwards in the next 12 hours is anyone's guess, 
however the dynamics are different compared to last Thursday.

If it clears those highs, trend bias is to move towards the Weekly highs

*Primary target on AUD is 1.06*


----------



## Frank D

*AUD/USD*


Yesterday saw the first 12 hours breakout of the 5-day high and Weekly 50% level
 @ 1.0033.

2nd support @ 1.0040 should have seen the AUD continue upwards, as part of a 
move towards the Weekly highs.

Instead it failed, and has seen the AUD move back below the key levels in the 
market @ 1.0007

Based on the current price action in the market there’s no probability pattern
 for Thursday other than trading the levels:- short-term ranges



*Footnote:- "
****** China GDP and other China news out at 1.00pm , big news , which will
 effect the AUD in the short-term*


----------



## Whiskers

A pennent/flag appearing on the 1 min around .9925/6 suggesting a further kick up... but I think it's a false hope... an Evening Star formed on top the flag pole.

Gotta break south soon!


----------



## Frank D

Frank D said:


> *AUD monthly and Weekly*
> 
> My view continues to be that the AUD will continue to move towards higher highs
> in 2011, but not whilst it's below 1.0007.
> 
> AUD remains choppy, and it might take the last week of the current month to
> decide whether it's going up or down.




Coming into the last week of the month, and it is going to decide which way the
 trend goes (break out of the monthly consolidation pattern)

Weekly 50% level and the January 50% level @ 1.0007 continues to resist the trend.

however, if is going to continue higher, then the set-up is based on the
 daily 50% levels and the white channel lows from 11am onwards.


----------



## Frank D

*AUD (Dilernia Model)*

AUD remains supported in the daily range @ 9938, but there’s little room to 
move on the upside, as the lines of resistance are stalling the trend (Weekly
 and monthly 50% levels)

if AUD is going to finally push upwards, it needs to get some buying support in the 
next 4 hours and begin trading above the 50% levels @ 7pm and begin the next 
leg upwards

*Trading above .9977*(Weekly 50% level) and moving towards Tuesday's highs.

The concern would be from 11pm onwards and the shift in support levels.


----------



## Frank D

*AUD/USD*

Monthly and Weekly levels continue to resist the trend from rising, and yesterday
 was the first day this week that provided a short trade set-up during the first 
12 hours from 11am

Today:- trend guide at 11am @ .9897

Either the trend continues down into Friday's lows (random support) & 
Weekly level @ 98.30

or the first 12 hour moves upwards, with the first target being the daily 50% level
 @ 9928, and with a possible move towards the channel highs.

This being a lower Daily open and continuing to move in a consolidating pattern for
 the first 12 hours.

I don't have a probability in which direction it's going to go, other than trading on 
the side of .9897.


----------



## Frank D

*AUD/USD (Dilernia model)*

AUD continues to consolidate below the January 50 level @ 1.0007

*Next Week*:- price can push down into next week's lows, using the 
Weekly 50% level as the trend guide.

However, my hunch is that the AUD can follow a *text book pattern *and
 rise back into the January 50% level @ 1.0007

Stall once again, and then come back down into the February 50% level, which
 then forms support....

and then continues up towards the Weekly highs, with a possible breakout of 
those highs (or not)

Any expectation in the higher timeframes, is always optimised with set-ups using  
12-hour patterns on a daily basis.


----------



## ShawnL

Let's have a bigger picture view of the AUD,

*AUDUSD 4H*




Price is still in an upper consolidation since starman45's previously posted chart, and there wasn't clear break of the major up trend line. We do have a Head and Shoulders pattern with 0.9828 as neckline. Also, a bearish Gartley pattern formed the right shoulder is still in play. If price breaks 0.9828, we have further Gartley continuation and possibly the trend might turn; am looking to short on breakdown-retest of 0.9828, stop around 0.9908, first target at 0.9650. 

On the upside, am watching the 0.9974 level, slightly below the shoulders but has more S/R significance. If price breaks 0.9974 and had a clear retest, am looking to long with stop around 0.9894, provided there is enough room to move till 1.0179, the double top pattern.

Don't know when will happen, but at the moment, am sitting on the bench on Aussie dollar. May even continue to consolidate in the 0.9828 - 0.9974 range which I have no interest to be in the market.

Will update here if any break of either sides.

Cheers


----------



## Frank D

*AUD Weekly and Daily range*

AUD following my hunch of a text book pattern, and rising back towards the
 January 50% level @ 1.0007 from Monday's support.

If the AUD is going to go higher, then my ideal pattern would be a retest of
 Weekly 50% level and/or February 50% level, and then for the trend to 
continue up towards the Weekly highs by Friday.

Based on Today levels, if above .9977 then the trend bias is to 
continue towards Tuesday's highs, and matching January 50% level:- random
 resistance.

*Note:- *1.0007 resistance levels have now shifted and are trading below, giving 
more reason for the AUD to push upwards, as long as it remains above the 
February 50% level.


----------



## Frank D

*AUD/USD*

Breakout of Tuesday's highs, as the January resistance levels disappear, and now
 the trend is moving towards the February highs.

My ideal pattern didn't play out as expected, but as pointed out yesterday, there
 was an expectation that Tuesday would initially push upwards, whilst
 above .9977, which then resulted in the breakout, and now the likely extension
 up towards Wednesday's highs @ 1.018

Weekly highs now become support zones for this week, if there's any 12 hour 
weakness.


----------



## IB12

Frank D said:


> *AUD/USD*
> 
> and now *the likely extension up towards Wednesday's highs @ 1.018*
> 
> Weekly highs now become support zones for this week, if there's any 12 hour
> weakness.




are you sure?


----------



## Frank D

IB12 said:


> are you sure?




I'm sure about, if there's any weakness during the 12 hours (if below 1.0108), that 
the Weekly highs would support the trend this week.

And now the next trend will be determined by the following level from 11am...

And whether the AUD continues towards Thursday's highs, as part of my view of AUD moving higher in February, and then towards 1.06 in 2011

 or it once again moves into another consolidation pattern on Thursday, drifting lower.


----------



## Frank D

*AUD/USD  (Dilernia model)*

AUD remaining within text book patterns, and as long as it's above the weekly
 level @ 1.0117,

The trend bias is to continue towards the Weekly and Monthly highs, as part of 
the breakout from last Week's highs into this week's highs :- break & extend


----------



## Frank D

*AUD/USD:-  Dilernia model*

AUD continues to be supported above 1.0117, but it can't rise higher than the
 Primary range of 85 pips. (consolidation)

My view is still based on the break and extend pattern from last week's highs into
 this week's highs:- continuation of the UP trend.

As long as it remains above Support


----------



## jonojpsg

Hey Frank, do you consider the drop below $1.0117 a break of support now and how does that change the outlook?  Have been playing short AUD for a while and obviously am out of the money but have added more at current levels to bring my average back to high 99s - is that level in play in short term?


----------



## Frank D

jonojpsg said:


> Hey Frank, do you consider the drop below $1.0117 a break of support now and how does that change the outlook?




It has changed the outlook in the short-term, but i'm not so sure in the medium
 term, as we have a similar pattern as December.

So instead of going up this week, we have a Weekly pattern that's rotating back
 into support &  the 50% levels @ .9974/76

Therefore, you would need to see how Friday plays out, and see if support levels
 are validated,  and then re-evaluate next week:- does support hold and
continue upwards?


----------



## Frank D

*AUD/USD*

As noted in the previous post:- Friday helps validate higher timeframe support
 levels @9974/76.

and whilst price remains this Week's 50% level @ 1.0016, my view is that
 the AUD will try and swing back towards the Weekly highs.

if it remains choppy around these levels for the next 2-days, then there is always
 the possibility that from Wednesday onwards the AUD moves back down 
towards .9921

however, the latter isn't part of my overall view of AUD (bullish)


----------



## ShawnL

*AUDUSD D*



*AUDUSD 4H*



Took a long entry based on analysis in earlier post.


Entry: Long at 1.0028
Stop: 0.9932
Risk: 3%, due to the trend has not kick in yet, and we are still in a triangle consolidation in the daily.
Target 1: Previous high of B, 1.0179.
Target 2: 1.0286, confluence of 127.0% and AB=CD completion.


----------



## Frank D

*AUD/USD*

We have a similar pattern as last week, the AUD can't remain above the 85 pip
 highs, and is now rotating down towards .9921 and Wednesday's lows. 

The next leg upwards was based on 2nd support, and 2nd support failed 
to hold on Tuesday.

Based on the daily range:- my view is that the AUD will continue down, and follow
 the daily range towards Wednesday's lows and the monthly level @ .9921


----------



## ShawnL

Cut loss at 0.9974 when the 1.0000 support no longer holds. I should have respected the triple top in daily, especially when the top had been formed rather recent.

Am not looking to go short or long at the moment, and I will be sitting on my hands for more structures in the market.



ShawnL said:


> *AUDUSD D*
> 
> Took a long entry based on analysis in earlier post.
> 
> 
> Entry: Long at 1.0028
> Stop: 0.9932
> Risk: 3%, due to the trend has not kick in yet, and we are still in a triangle consolidation in the daily.
> Target 1: Previous high of B, 1.0179.
> Target 2: 1.0286, confluence of 127.0% and AB=CD completion.


----------



## Frank D

*AUD/USD*


My view was that the AUD would hit .9978/85 and continue down towards
 Wednesday's lows.

Instead there is a 4-hour close above the intra-day level @ .9985 @ 3pm

This could see more upside during the first 12 hours, however it could also simply be 
a retest of the Weekly 50% level @ 1.0016.


not a high probability set-up to BUY & Hold, but .9985 is now the trend guide.


----------



## Frank D

*AUD/USD *

As per Weekly 'HOOK' patterns:- higher highs by Friday.

Random resistance Friday's highs.

Expectation that the AUD is following a double Weekly high pattern into
 next week's highs


----------



## prawn_86

So on a longer term fundamental front, are we seeing a shift away from the USD as a safe haven?

The USD 'safety' status has been a puzzling one in the last decade as it has ran up more debt, but with what is going on in the Middle East at the moment its interesting to see that the USD is not making any gains. 2 years ago if we had riots in the Middle East risk aversion would have kicked in and the AUD would have dropped, and hard. Now nothing...

Have we finally see the fundamental shift everyone has been waiting for?


----------



## Frank D

prawn_86 said:


> So on a longer term fundamental front, are we seeing a shift away from the USD as a safe haven?
> 
> Have we finally see the fundamental shift everyone has been waiting for?




I'm not sure whether it's a change in fundamentals in the USD, or simply
based on technicals, and China's appetite for our resources.

*AUD/USD*

Looking for the AUD to continue towards this week's highs.

However, based on the short-term patterns, I'm looking for a 2-day reversal
 pattern back down into the trailing support levels (Weekly 50% level).

If that plays out, then from Wednesday onwards looking for the trend to
 continue towards the Weekly highs, and then the Monthy highs in the last week of 
the month


----------



## sinner

prawn_86 said:


> So on a longer term fundamental front, are we seeing a shift away from the USD as a safe haven?
> 
> Have we finally see the fundamental shift everyone has been waiting for?




Flat right now, but if I had to I'd put money on *nope*.

Things are worse than 2008, the difference between AU and rest of developed world is that when other economies started "stimulating" to slow down de-leveraging, same tactic here actually had the effect of causing us to *re-leverage*. Not sustainable, and has the added bonus effect of killing any international competetiveness for sectors which aren't tied to the great Bernankethon currently underway.

The AUD is strong on a *short term* relative economic basis (nice way of saying we don't have 20% unemployment like Spain). However take a look at the long term. Our productivity is lower and inflation is higher than pretty much everywhere else over the long term. People aren't paying us because we make things (Germany/China), value add (Japan/Korea) or provide useful services (Cayman Islands, Luxembourg). They are paying us because of the things in our ground.

All IMHO. You get paid a sweet carry rate by the AUDUSD to disagree with it.


----------



## Frank D

*AUD/USD*

Expectation of a 2-day reversal back down into the Weekly 50% level has played
 out, however it has kept on going, and could continue to trend down into the daily
 lows (random support).

Unless Tuesday closes back above the Weekly 50% level, and Wednesday provides 
the pattern I was looking for (trend continuing towards this week's high from Wednesday onwards)....

you might be right, in regards to a flight to the USD, as the trouble coming out of the
 Middle East looks to be getting worse in the short-term.


----------



## sinner

Frank D said:


> you might be right, in regards to a flight to the USD, as the trouble coming out of the
> Middle East looks to be getting worse in the short-term.




lol

It's definitely gotta be riots in Libya and Morrocco which is causing the Aussie dollar to drop like a hot knife through your buttery lines during Tokyo hours!

It couldn't possibly be the AUDJPY selling which stormed Tokyo today, or the huge 5+% crapout Zinc took during Shanghai session nor the massive earthquake in NZ being followed by correlation desks everywhere. Certainly it couldn't be that interbank providers are massively long and leveraged into AUDUSD and short EURAUD for months on end causing them to be temporarily squeezed on moves like an earthquake or crapout in Zinc.

Millions of market participants are looking at the news out of Bahrain and deciding to sell Aussie dollars...yep, that must be it.

Why do we even bother using charts? Just buy Aussie dollars when Bahrain isn't rioting, and sell them when they are.

I am just saying this with tongue in cheek, not serious.

P.S for the record, interbank players didn't even sneeze at todays action, happy to buy the shorts offered by retail money and hedge funds all day long (as measured by SWFX). I am not expecting a carry trade unwind until these guys are net short.


----------



## Frank D

*AUD/USD*

Tuesday found support on the daily lows, matched with the February 50% level 
@ .9974

It took until Thursday 11pm for the trend to get back above the Weekly 50%
 level @ 1.0053

Whilst AUD remains above certain key levels in the daily and weekly range, the 
trend bias is up towards the highs once again.


----------



## sinner

Line in the sand for Aussie imho.

Trade up from here for one final drive higher.

Trade down from here, looking for a re-test to finally go short on the comdolls!

I took a couple of spec longs here at this line in the sand, the premise being these previous lows should act as a resistance becomes support, but no guarantees in this game. 



I like this play because it seems like the bigger players are just trying to paint the chart into looking scary, but maybe it really is scary and I'm just stupid.

Context:
* Aussie is tanking today with correlation desks once again following the NZD down after NZ PMs comments that a recession there might be unavoidable.
* Aussie Q4 GDP reported much better than expected today, although the Q3 results were revised down.
* My interpretation of the liquidity sentiment today is that retail and hedge fund accounts (liquidity consumers) were the responsible short sellers, banks (liquidity providers) bought the dip. 



I don't think it will take too long to know for sure, and one last shoot for 1.03 is worth the RR to me. If it doesn't work out there will be plenty of pips to the downside.


----------



## Frank D

*AUD/USD*

Current Weekly high levels forming resistance once again, and the intra-day break of 
trailing support (1.0112) suggests more weakness in the short-term.

This can change over the next 10 hours....but..

it looks more like it wants to move back down into the Weekly 50% level, and
 then possibly down into the Weekly lows, which match the
 Monthly 50% levels in March @ .9993


----------



## prawn_86

I actually took out a small short when i got to work this morning based on the fact that it has tried and failed a lot lately to break through the 1.0180 - 1.02 range.

Bottom of the longer term range im targeting is around 0.9980. Cant post a chart as im at work.

EDIT - Frank beat me to it


----------



## sinner

I am adjusting the in-profit stop on roughly half the position up to 1.015, if we continue up in a hurry from here it shouldn't get hit and the whole position will continue to ride up. Otherwise I am looking to lock in that 50 pips and let the other half run with the stops on that portion at breakeven+1.


----------



## Frank D

*AUD/USD*

Things do change over 10-hours...

whilst above the trend guides on Thursday @ 1.0146, the view is that price is
 moving back towards the highs....(random resistance)

And then see if the 2nd 12 hour pattern breaks out, as part of a move
 towards the March highs @ 1.0353

*Friday target @ 1.0262*


----------



## Paulo30

I've been holding for a week or so, but am still short, looking at exiting around 0.9970. I do take positions for long-term though, and trade on a Daily.



prawn_86 said:


> I actually took out a small short when i got to work this morning based on the fact that it has tried and failed a lot lately to break through the 1.0180 - 1.02 range.
> 
> Bottom of the longer term range im targeting is around 0.9980. Cant post a chart as im at work.
> 
> EDIT - Frank beat me to it


----------



## prawn_86

Paulo30 said:


> I've been holding for a week or so, but am still short, looking at exiting around 0.9970. I do take positions for long-term though, and trade on a Daily.




Yeh im still holding my short also. Not much doing, there is real AUD strength at the moment, and its interesting to watch the finance channels at work now starting to ask if the USD is losing its status as the 'reserve' currency, similar to what i asked in this thread a few weeks ago


----------



## Paulo30

Yeah I was just reading today in the Sun Herald (Pascoe's column), that some economists are expecting it now to go back down to .90 at least, either from interest rates in the US being raised (can't see it..), else also because there is no clear push to raise them here.. personally I don't see any major push for it to breach the 1.03 mark, which it hasn't gotten over yet.. so it may channel for a while.




prawn_86 said:


> Yeh im still holding my short also. Not much doing, there is real AUD strength at the moment, and its interesting to watch the finance channels at work now starting to ask if the USD is losing its status as the 'reserve' currency, similar to what i asked in this thread a few weeks ago


----------



## IB12

Could go anywhere really. 
Fed could be pressured (politically) to raise rates, and any rumor of this would send the Aussie lower sharply. 
Or, we could continue to get strong growth numbers and the Fed will continue to remain (stubbornly) behind the 8-ball and keeping rates below zero in real terms. Which will send the Aussie trending towards the 1.02-1.05 level and break new ground. 

Fact of the matter is we all don't have a clue, so get your risk management right and buckle up.


----------



## sinner

prawn_86 said:


> Yeh im still holding my short also. Not much doing, there is real AUD strength at the moment, and its interesting to watch the finance channels at work now starting to ask if the USD is losing its status as the 'reserve' currency, similar to what i asked in this thread a few weeks ago




lol

Is this where I mention the irony of me being long AUD but viewing USD as *not* losing its reserve status, while you who think it *will* are actually short? Hehehehe.


----------



## Frank D

*AUD/USD*

AUD has consolidated in a tight 5-day range, and I still have the view that the
 AUD is trying to move higher, but it keeps hitting resistance around
 the Weekly levels.

Normally when I see a friday low support pattern, I would treat this week as starting
 with a 2-day upward bias (as long as it's above the Weekly 50% level).

And if by Tuesday's close it's trading above the Weekly highs, then March high
 target is 1.0353.


----------



## prawn_86

sinner said:


> lol
> 
> Is this where I mention the irony of me being long AUD but viewing USD as *not* losing its reserve status, while you who think it *will* are actually short? Hehehehe.




haha all about timeframes isnt it.

My trade hasnt played out in the timeframe i thought it would, so i have moved my stop tighter to take away some of my risk, as the AUD is still showing amazing strength. A break of the 1.02 mark will have me stopped out, previous stop was around 1.0250 (all time high)


----------



## explod

You cannot hold flood waters back.  The $US is trash and I do often tip my lid to contrarians, but that road is not for this ole black duck.

Should be a very interesting week.


----------



## prawn_86

explod said:


> The $US is trash




This has been known for decades, same as any Western country in a lot of debt. The question is a matter of when, not if. 

In the meantime it doesnt mean you cant make money trading the shorter term movements


----------



## explod

prawn_86 said:


> This has been known for decades, same as any Western country in a lot of debt. The question is a matter of when, not if.
> 
> In the meantime it doesnt mean you cant make money trading the shorter term movements




Agree, but amazing the numbers who are still not aware and other unconvinced.  I believe the non reaction (of the index) to Benanke's statements to Congress last week my indicate a real move south soon.


----------



## sinner

explod said:


> You cannot hold flood waters back.  The $US is trash and I do often tip my lid to contrarians, but that road is not for this ole black duck.
> 
> Should be a very interesting week.




The USD is trash but so what, is any other paper better or worse than the "trash"? 

We aren't placing bets as to which is trash explod, only which is trashier in the short short term, and you know it explod so it's not necessary to spout the same spiel over and over. If you have an opinion and a chart, share it.


----------



## Whiskers

ABARES expects the AUD/USD to average US97c to 2012/3 before easing back to average US90c about 2015/6. (page 18)

http://adl.brs.gov.au/data/warehouse/pe_abares99001790/AC11.1_March_part_1_REPORT.pdf

It notes that the AUD is stronger against the USD relative to others mainly because of their QE and demand for our commodities and assuming the US starts to reign in it's debt and anticipating Aus interest rates to ease a year or so out, the AUD will ease back to about US90c.


----------



## prawn_86

Whats other members take on it now for the shorter term. Seems to be playing out as i hoped, just took a bit longer. 

A 'close' today below 1.01 would help signal further downside imo


----------



## Frank D

*AUD/USD*

_"if Tuesday remains choppy resulting in a 2nd 'stall' day above the Weekly
 50% level, then from Wednesday onwards we could see selling pressure
 on the AUD…." (Yesterday’s report)_

I had the view that the first 2-days would try and rise upwards, but Monday's highs
 sent the AUD back down, and Tuesday ended up as a 2nd stall day above the 
Weekly 50% level.

Based on the current price action, (below Weekly 50% level) and Wednesday's
 selling, I would look for the AUD to move down into the Weekly lows and March 
50% level @ .9993


----------



## Paulo30

I'm still holding a short position, since about a week, aiming at 0.9970, entered at 1.0100; today's rise doesn't look that convincing, so I see no reason to exit at this point.



prawn_86 said:


> Whats other members take on it now for the shorter term. Seems to be playing out as i hoped, just took a bit longer.
> 
> A 'close' today below 1.01 would help signal further downside imo


----------



## moreld

There have been a couple of excellent posts on AUD/USD on a blog I read; thought people here may be interested in.

http://www.datadiary.com.au/2011/03/07/australian-dollar-running-on-empty/
"The Aussie has burnt through its stores of glycogen and has been battling against the wall for a month or two now – any progress from here is likely to take a whole lot more effort. That’s not to say it can’t make one final push higher. It is to say that the risk/reward is heavily favouring the downside over the balance of the calendar year..."

http://www.datadiary.com.au/2011/03/09/short-aususd-as-the-herd-inches-closer-to-the-exits/ 
"...but the stars are aligning for the commencement of a serious commodity unwind.  We’ve been through the many arguments before – tightening liquidity in China, the impending maturity of QE2, the Middle East premium in oil, the market being heavily tilted towards the risk and commodity trade and, more specifically for the AUDUSD, the excessive leverage of the Australian economy..."


----------



## prawn_86

Moved stop to better than b/e now. Stop at 1.015 now, original short taken at 1.0176.

Still looking to exit around the 0.9990 level but just thought i would make sure i lock in some profit in case a dramatic reveral happens.


----------



## Ruby

prawn_86 said:


> Moved stop to better than b/e now. Stop at 1.015 now, original short taken at 1.0176.
> 
> Still looking to exit around the 0.9990 level but just thought i would make sure i lock in some profit in case a dramatic reveral happens.




Good on you Prawn..............I admire anyone willing to take a punt on the Aussie right now, with the congestion getting quite tight and direction uncertain.  Part of me thinks it will make one more push up to about 1.03 (it's been making higher lows since December), but on the other hand it looks very bearish (lots of MACD divergence) and the fundamentals suggest it is unsustainably high.   Think I need to wait a bit to see which way it resolves itself.


----------



## Paulo30

It's really looking to test the 1.0000 level, probably tonight.. currently at down at 1.0030. Will wait to see what happens when it breaks that support, but holding until well in the .9900s




prawn_86 said:


> Moved stop to better than b/e now. Stop at 1.015 now, original short taken at 1.0176.
> 
> Still looking to exit around the 0.9990 level but just thought i would make sure i lock in some profit in case a dramatic reveral happens.


----------



## Edwood

AUD-USD is looking pretty terminal to me on the longer timeframes, in respect of the overall pattern >> an ED within an ED, and counts could complete anywhere around here.  might still possibly pop a little higher, but looks as though the next significant move will be down


----------



## prawn_86

Well it went down to support at 0.9990 over night, has bounced slightly so i'm just seeing how it plays out.

Have moved stop to give it > 1:1 RR, exit at original target of 0.9990 would have been slightly over 2:1RR but as i feel it will fall further im hapy to keep an eye on it from here


----------



## professor_frink

prawn_86 said:


> Well it went down to support at 0.9990 over night, has bounced slightly so i'm just seeing how it plays out.
> 
> Have moved stop to give it > 1:1 RR, exit at original target of 0.9990 would have been slightly over 2:1RR but as i feel it will fall further im hapy to keep an eye on it from here




why the change in tactics mid trade prawn?


----------



## prawn_86

professor_frink said:


> why the change in tactics mid trade prawn?




US stocks got spanked overnight and there is a high correlation between this pair and US stocks at the moment, so ithink if they fall over again, the we will see the dollar break down below this level of support.

Quite a bit of risk aversion has come in overnight so happy to trail a stop reasonably tight and see how it plays out


----------



## Ruby

prawn_86 said:


> Have moved stop to give it > 1:1 RR...........




Prawn, yesterday you said you had moved your stop to better than b/e.   Where's the risk now?


----------



## prawn_86

Ruby said:


> Prawn, yesterday you said you had moved your stop to better than b/e.   Where's the risk now?




No risk now, its all profit. I'm quoting on the original risk. Original risk when enetering the trade was 80 pips, stop is now in profit of 110 pips so > 1:1 based on original risk


----------



## professor_frink

prawn_86 said:


> US stocks got spanked overnight and there is a high correlation between this pair and US stocks at the moment, so ithink if they fall over again, the we will see the dollar break down below this level of support.
> 
> Quite a bit of risk aversion has come in overnight so happy to trail a stop reasonably tight and see how it plays out




That relationship has been on the decline this year so I'd be a little careful of playing it that way

The other thing to consider is the move down to new short term lows o/n: it's not uncommon for this type of move to be followed by a 1-3 day rally. That tight stop can be shaken out by this type of rally leaving you flat  and without much profit before another selloff gets cracking.

Hope I'm wrong here for your sake, just a couple of things to consider.


----------



## Frank D

*AUD/USD*

Completes the move down into the MARCH 50% level @ .9993

There are two possible patterns on Friday...

continues down into Friday's lows @ .9965

or price swings back towards 1.0035

if price is above that level, then there is a possible swing back towards 
 channel highs on friday, as part of a swing back towards next week's 50% level.


----------



## Paulo30

Just hit my short target of around .9975, so I'll take the 100p or so profit at this point (it did take 2 weeks to reach this target though from 1.0100)

I expect it to find some support soon though.. panic buying of US dollars will probably dry up over the next week.



Paulo30 said:


> It's really looking to test the 1.0000 level, probably tonight.. currently at down at 1.0030. Will wait to see what happens when it breaks that support, but holding until well in the .9900s


----------



## prawn_86

Stopped out yesterday arvo after the bounce from the low. Trailling stop had moved down to 1.002 by then so got out with 150 pip gain.

Was an amazing bounce overnight, lets see if it will retest the highs...


----------



## Frank D

*AUD/USD*

AUD was trading around higher timeframe support levels on Friday, which 
 then provided a 2nd 12 hour breakout pattern sending the AUD back above
 the Weekly 50% level.

We have the same pattern as the past 3-weeks:- range trading
 between the Weekly 50% level and Weekly highs.

However, this is the first time in 3-weeks that the AUD is trading
 above the intra-day channel highs (white).

After this week's pirce action of testing higher timeframe support, and 
whilst the AUD remains above the channel highs @ 1.0109 & Weekly 50% level.

My view is that it's trying to move towards 1.035 in MARCH, but it
 needs to break out of the Weekly highs


----------



## jonojpsg

What's your take on the big bounce on Friday night Frank?  I mean the move down was reasonably quick once it cracked 1.008 but to bounce back up to 1.014 overnight from <1 seems weird given China and Aus data over the last two days?

I jumped back on a short anyway - set stops around 1.018 as this seemed to be the significant resistance level from the last few forays higher. See how it goes


----------



## ginar

jonojpsg said:


> What's your take on the big bounce on Friday night Frank?  I mean the move down was reasonably quick once it cracked 1.008 but to bounce back up to 1.014 overnight from <1 seems weird given China and Aus data over the last two days?
> 
> I jumped back on a short anyway - set stops around 1.018 as this seemed to be the significant resistance level from the last few forays higher. See how it goes




I think there is a fair chance its all related to the rollover of aud futures . LMAO


----------



## Frank D

jonojpsg said:


> What's your take on the big bounce on Friday night Frank?




No idea why Friday rallied like it did, but it's not surprising after testing higher 
timeframe support levels during the current Quarter.

Most trends develop from higher timeframe 50% levels and 'thrust' outward, and 
this is the first time its tested those levels.

Now let's see if it continues to move towards 1.035 during the current month, and then the April highs thereafter.


----------



## Frank D

*AUD/USD*

My view was that the AUD would try and push upwards on Monday...

It held support, but not long enough...

failing to remain above the key levels @ 11am.


----------



## prawn_86

AUD absolutely smashed against the USD today on increased risk aversion.

Broke down through suppost at 0.9990 - 0.9980 and also now below the 100 day moving average


----------



## Frank D

*AUD/USD*

We have the same patterns in the AUD as index markets, with a *breakout of the Weekly lows @ .9985/93*

Whilst the market is below the Monthly 50% level and below those lows, the trend bias is down.

If it continues with the breakout, the downside is the MARCH lows @ .9796, and as low as the First quarter channel @ .9564


----------



## Edwood

yep reckon its looking bearish Frank, EW pattern looks complete, ED within an ED & all that, next 1000 pt move more likely to be down imo


----------



## Frank D

*AUD/USD*

Same pattern as the SPI last week and the S&P (today)

Weekly low support and then a breakout of the Weekly lows the following week. (today)

first target down on the AUD @ .9796, as per previous post, matches the 
11pm target

But I would think there would be more weakness during the current Weekly
timeframe


----------



## Frank D

*AUD/USD*

First target reached @ .9796

with the expectation that the AUD is moving down into .9633

Trailing resistance @ 9837 until then (11am)

*Note:- AUD is currently in a break and Extend pattern within the
 Weekly timeframe*


----------



## Frank D

*AUD/USD*

My view is that the AUD is moving down towards .9633 matched with the
 Weekly breakout pattern and next week's lows.

However, Thursday's set-up didn't continue down from .9837 , instead
 it remained choppy. (inside day)

I still have the view that the AUD will continue down, but Friday's range might
 not come to the party.

*There are two patterns at play on Friday...*

#1 ) The AUD moves up into the 5-day 50% level and channel highs & then sells
 down, breaking 12 hour support and following the larger trend lower.

#2) 12 hour support comes into play early and pushes the AUD back into the 
5-day 50% level, which will then decide if it will continue down, or the 2nd 
12 hour pattern pushes Friday up towards the recent Weekly low breakout
 @ 9985/93

I favour #1 occurring, but I won't be surprised if #2 happens, simply because 
the March low @ 9796 has been reached (first target), and the AUD is now
 rotating up towards next week levels


----------



## Frank D

*AUD/USD*

AUD moved above the 5-day 50% level on Friday, and then continued upwards during
 the 2nd 12 hour pattern, as price rotates back towards this week's breakout.
*

Next Week*:- Because there's a breakout pattern in the Weekly timeframe, I 
would treat AUD as moving back down into the lows.

For that to happen price needs to be trading below .9897 

Otherwise, this week's price action could be a fake break, and over the next
 2-weeks AUD moves into a consolidation pattern within the Weekly levels until
 the start of the 2nd Quarter (April)


----------



## Frank D

*AUD/USD*

Fake break in the AUD, and the expectation now is that over the next 2-weeks 
price moves into a consolidation pattern until April.

Weekly highs random resistance.

I would focus on trying to take small range increments of 41 pips
 each 12 hour range, which occassionally could lead into 85 pips by the end
 of the day until April begins.


----------



## Frank D

*AUD/USD*

AUD has completed the move into the Weekly highs, which is seen as random
 resistance.

These highs will either stall the trend, and the AUD moves into another 5-days
 of consolidation until the start of April...

or it continues with the fake break pattern, and breakouts of this week's highs
 and follows the trend towards 1.035 by next week (last week of MARCH reaching the
 MARCH highs)

no probability in what will happen, other than trading in the side of the levels
 in Friday's range (11am)


----------



## Frank D

*AUD Weekly*

As long as price remains above the Weekly level @ 1.0232...

The trend should complete the March highs in the last week of the month.


----------



## Frank D

*AUD/USD*

Trend bias is to continue upwards, as long as it remains above the 
Weekly level @ 1.0232

However, the position of the daily levels on Monday won't be helping at this
 early stage (11am).


----------



## Frank D

*AUD/USD*

March highs @ 1.035 should reach today, or by the last day of the 
month (tomorrow)

2011 target highs remain 1.0621


----------



## Frank D

*AUD/USD*

AUD completes the MARCH highs @ 1.035 on the last day of the Month.

Market dynamics suggests the trend can continue upwards next week, and 
towards the April highs.

If below next week’s level, the expectation is that price is revisiting the
 April 50% level.


----------



## Frank D

*AUD/USD*

AUD completes the April highs @ 1.0434, but it's too early to tell whether the trend 
will reverse down on Thursday, as price is trading above Wednesday's highs....

which often will continue to extend up into Thursday's highs.

*Note:- over target in 2011 remains 106.12*


----------



## Frank D

*AUD Weekly and Daily*

AUD completes the double Weekly high pattern @ 1.0508

And i'm not sure that the AUD will venture higher in the short-term (this week)

I'd keep an eye on the 11am levels:- each way bet on direction...

 as it could continue to follow the friday high pattern, or dip down towards the
 March highs @ 1.0434 and lower, as it remains below the brown filter.


----------



## TulipFX

I keep saying 'its gotta drop off now - surely'. But it keeps rising!  Poor predictive skills is why I leave my trading to statistics and robots. I would like it to come down a bit. I have USD's I would like to convert at 0.48 like in 2000.


----------



## tayser

interesting to note that banks have finally started quoting prices above parity for the retail market too.  300-400 pips is a nice fat margin for them.


----------



## prawn_86

tayser said:


> interesting to note that banks have finally started quoting prices above parity for the retail market too.  300-400 pips is a nice fat margin for them.




Westpac always has the tightest daily rate and they quoted above parity early last week i think.

But yes, now it is above parity they all seem to have widened their spreads out. But as the dollar rises they also make less on USD transfers. 100k USD @ 80c = 125k AUD whereas now it equals circa 95k, so there is 30k less dollars they are earning margin on


----------



## tothemax6

TulipFX said:


> I keep saying 'its gotta drop off now - surely'. But it keeps rising!  Poor predictive skills is why I leave my trading to statistics and robots. I would like it to come down a bit. I have USD's I would like to convert at 0.48 like in 2000.



I know this thread is effectively a charting thread, but I'd like to throw in some fundamentals here.

Why would the USD rise? There is no reason that the value of a USD will increase. The value of a USD is a function of the monetary base and the aggregate credit of that monetary base (which is also a function of the former). The monetary base has not only been exploded by the US central bank, following Keynesian monetary policy (Bernanke believes, and you can read his original paper, that the great depression was caused by the central bank failing to expand the money supply), but is still being expanded - and will continue to be so until at least mid-year. The value of a USD is also a function of the demand for USDs - which a function of the health of the US economy. There is no evidence that the US economic structure is more sound now than it was prior to the crash. Sure, economies do recover (to varying extents) following a crash, as resources re-consolidate back to more efficient uses, but this depends on the extent to which a free market exists - and the US is moving further from a free market, not closer. 
If nothing politically changes, the future of the USD is very clear - it will not be worth very much. Maybe even as much as a Won.

Regarding AUD, sure, one could argue that there are risks that the AUD will fall. When China has a blow off, for instance, the AUD will plummet. But until then we are in a commodity boom - and fundamentally this is increasing the value of an AUD.


----------



## Frank D

*USD Index and the AUD/USD Primary and Secondary Cycles*

When we look at the USD Index (first chart) and compare it with other
currencies you’ll see the same patterns in the Primary cycles.

USD Index started 2011 in a bear cycle, whilst the AUD (2nd chart) was in a
 bull cycle.

Even though the AUD isn’t part of the USD Index, *the target for the AUD in 2011
 is $106.12, (2nd Chart)* whilst the USD index remains around $73-$75.

Both the AUD can continue to push higher in 2011 and the USD can fall lower...

but my hunch is that the US Dollar will begin to rotate upwards over the coming 
weeks, once the lower levels are reached, whilst the AUD and other currencies will begin to rotate back down.

We just have to look for the minor timeframe cycles and certain patterns to see if
 that expectation will play out, or not.


----------



## explod

Frank D said:


> but my hunch is that the US Dollar will begin to rotate upwards over the coming
> weeks, once the lower levels are reached, whilst the AUD and other currencies will begin to rotate back down.
> .




Hi Frank.  Would be interested in any reasoning for your take of some US dollar recovery.


----------



## tayser

tothemax6 said:


> I know this thread is effectively a charting thread, but I'd like to throw in some fundamentals here.
> 
> Why would the USD rise? There is no reason that the value of a USD will increase. The value of a USD is a function of the monetary base and the aggregate credit of that monetary base (which is also a function of the former). The monetary base has not only been exploded by the US central bank, following Keynesian monetary policy (Bernanke believes, and you can read his original paper, that the great depression was caused by the central bank failing to expand the money supply), but is still being expanded - and will continue to be so until at least mid-year. The value of a USD is also a function of the demand for USDs - which a function of the health of the US economy. There is no evidence that the US economic structure is more sound now than it was prior to the crash. Sure, economies do recover (to varying extents) following a crash, as resources re-consolidate back to more efficient uses, but this depends on the extent to which a free market exists - and the US is moving further from a free market, not closer.
> If nothing politically changes, the future of the USD is very clear - it will not be worth very much. Maybe even as much as a Won.
> 
> Regarding AUD, sure, one could argue that there are risks that the AUD will fall. When China has a blow off, for instance, the AUD will plummet. But until then we are in a commodity boom - and fundamentally this is increasing the value of an AUD.




fair post, but I'd like to throw another thing into the ring:  The FED and BOJ are at war (so to speak) to devalue their currencies at the moment.  When intervention occurs, fundamentals hit the fan.


----------



## Frank D

explod said:


> Hi Frank.  Would be interested in any reasoning for your take of some US dollar recovery.




Fundamentally there’s no reason for the USD to rise, unless the US begins lifting
 rates, or Republicans get massive spending cuts to the budget, which might
 happen.

However, I’m focusing more on the trading perspective, and imo, the USD will
 overdone sooner rather than later.

All trends originate from Quarterly 50% levels and thrust outward, therefore if the 
USD is going to continue lower, whilst currencies push higher, then I would like to 
see both converge towards those midpoints, and then look towards the 3rd quarter
 to see if the USD is going to continue lower into 2012 and Currencies push higher.

The basic question is….

Do you want to be shorting the USD and going long currencies at these levels? _(holding
 positions. Not intra-day trading)_


Personally, I wouldn’t.


And the same applies with most commodites, as they are showing the same patterns
 in the Primary and Secondary cycles


----------



## tothemax6

tayser said:


> fair post, but I'd like to throw another thing into the ring:  The FED and BOJ are at war (so to speak) to devalue their currencies at the moment.  When intervention occurs, fundamentals hit the fan.



Well the fed did actually intervene recently to sell the yen, which it wouldn't do in a devaluation war with Japan.
I personally consider politics a large part of 'fundamentals'. Indeed, Bernanke, for instance, is a very large part of the 'fundamentals'. Anyone who read his academic papers prior to the 2008 crash knew very well what was going to happen to the USD and the gold price.


----------



## TulipFX

From a technical point of view, it is due a correction after such a huge rise.


----------



## tothemax6

TulipFX said:


> From a technical point of view, it is due a correction after such a huge rise.




The same was of course true half way up said rise...


----------



## TulipFX

tothemax6 said:


> The same was of course true half way up said rise...




Yeah. And it happened.


----------



## tothemax6

TulipFX said:


> Yeah. And it happened.



That was the GFC crash, yes? I can never understand how you techies think you can predict financial crises and earthquakes by looking at a price squiggle.


----------



## tollbridge

tothemax6 said:


> That was the GFC crash, yes? I can never understand how you techies think you can predict financial crises and earthquakes by looking at a price squiggle.




Predicting earthquakes and financial crises'? You're kidding aren't you. Do you have any idea how t/a works? God I don't even know why I'm wasting my time on this post. Back to staring at the charts.


----------



## tothemax6

tollbridge said:


> Predicting earthquakes and financial crises'? You're kidding aren't you. Do you have any idea how t/a works? God I don't even know why I'm wasting my time on this post. Back to staring at the charts.



Some techies, and I have witnessed this clear as day, have performed analysis on certain price moves, and indicated that their analysis somehow explains these moves. All very well - except that the moves in question were the plunge of certain uranium's stocks. No, the move was not explainable in anyway by tech/a - it was caused by the Fukushima incident.

If you will read the posts above, tulip says aud/usd is due for a correction after such a large rise. I then point out that could be said half way up the said rise. He then said 'yeah and it happened', and included a chart. The said chart contains a snapshot of the AUD/USD plunging after rising a lot. The implication being that this was evidence that such tech analysis was well founded.

The plunge happened to be during 2008. 

I swear most of you techies are inches from playing aeroplane in public.


----------



## crown

tothemax6 said:


> Some techies, and I have witnessed this clear as day, have performed analysis on certain price moves, and indicated that their analysis somehow explains these moves. All very well - except that the moves in question were the plunge of certain uranium's stocks. No, the move was not explainable in anyway by tech/a - it was caused by the Fukushima incident.
> 
> If you will read the posts above, tulip says aud/usd is due for a correction after such a large rise. I then point out that could be said half way up the said rise. He then said 'yeah and it happened', and included a chart. The said chart contains a snapshot of the AUD/USD plunging after rising a lot. The implication being that this was evidence that such tech analysis was well founded.
> 
> The plunge happened to be during 2008.
> 
> *I swear most of you techies are inches from playing aeroplane in public.[/*QUOTE]
> 
> hahaha


----------



## Wysiwyg

Too early to say if the double top has happened? Damn I must taken over 100 short trades (minis) trying to pin the top but keep getting stopped or spooked out.


----------



## tollbridge

My theory is Forex Trading using F/A is just so too hard for the majority of ASF forum users (myself included). The market moves too quickly and the lack of interpretation of any fundamental news just requires too much time for the average trader to analyse and make a move before a major investor or broker jumps in on it. 

Stocks and Forex are completely different - you're kidding yourself if you apply the same strategy towards both. I rely exclusively on T/A for all my FX trades, generally trading well within support and resistance lines - let's face it, it's as close to the pokies as you can get without walking into a pub or casino (not that I'd ever compare gambling to trading - see my blog).

Stocks on the other hand move at a pace which enables novice traders / investors to make decisions based on real, genuine fundamental information. I was called by GFT today after making the decision to switch to IG for my FX trading (specifically because I was impressed with their iPhone app and customer support). After telling the GFT rep the reason why I had decided to stick with IG (mistake number 1) the CSR told me that GFT have a very experienced ex-banker with 18 years experience to tell me exactly what was going to happen and when to make a move. What a load of B/S!

I told her that I wish the banker the best of luck with trading a $3+ billion market based on his 18 years experience and that I'm thankful for her call. There was about 10 seconds silence before she said "oh... sorry Mr. Pinnock" and hung up. 

The point I'm trying to make is too many people confuse FX with CFD equity trading. It's completely different, the rules for one do NOT apply to the other. FX is fast and in my opinion, too fast to use F/A! Use a chart, find support and resistance - trade well within it using a high contract size, high stop in the direction you expect it to go and low stop within the position you want out!


----------



## TulipFX

I totally agree with your points regarding stocks and forex. People often ask me about stocks and I can say to them with all honesty I know nothing about them. Forex is a totally different beast.

Forgive my ignorance, but what are you referring to when you mention F/A? And for that matter T/A?

Your story about the 'expert' reminds me of this clip explaining efficient markets:


----------



## tollbridge

TulipFX said:


> I totally agree with your points regarding stocks and forex. People often ask me about stocks and I can say to them with all honesty I know nothing about them. Forex is a totally different beast.
> 
> Forgive my ignorance, but what are you referring to when you mention F/A? And for that matter T/A?
> 
> Your story about the 'expert' reminds me of this clip explaining efficient markets:






I'd never consider myself to be an expert. I've been trading for about 7 years - nothing compared to some of the members of this forum. T/A = Technical Analysis (charts) F/A = Fundamental Analysis (Company reports, balance sheets, news etc).

Let me say again, I'm NOT an expert! Trade with whatever style you feel comfortable with - it's your hard earned money, make it work for you!


----------



## TulipFX

Oh of course! Somethings are SO obvious after you have been told.


----------



## tothemax6

tollbridge said:


> My theory is Forex Trading using F/A is just so too hard for the majority of ASF forum users (myself included). The market moves too quickly and the lack of interpretation of any fundamental news just requires too much time for the average trader to analyse and make a move before a major investor or broker jumps in on it. Stocks and Forex are completely different - you're kidding yourself if you apply the same strategy towards both.



Yes F/A is harder. However, it requires patients more than anything else. A fundamental trader who saw BOE printing and the Fed printing, but the RBA not printing, is a good example (e.g AUD/USD). Yes, FX is completely different to stocks.


tollbridge said:


> The point I'm trying to make is too many people confuse FX with CFD equity trading. It's completely different, the rules for one do NOT apply to the other. FX is fast and in my opinion, too fast to use F/A! Use a chart, find support and resistance - trade well within it using a high contract size, high stop in the direction you expect it to go and low stop within the position you want out!



Depends on position sizing. If one is scalping one will use a large position. If one is trading 'I think usd is going to sink over the next 3 months', one will use a smaller position. 


TulipFX said:


> Your story about the 'expert' reminds me of this clip explaining efficient markets:



Oh I hate the efficient market theory. The idea that all market agents are equal and that some cannot process information better than others, apart from being fatalist and flying in the face of evidence, is illogical. 'Bargains' in stocks (or perhaps currencies even) are not as simple to evaluated as 'bargains' in shoes and groceries. A shopping queue has one 'value', one 'input' and one 'output' - hardly a valid model for a stock, which has a huge number of inputs, outputs and values.


----------



## Neutral

Say if you were to try to digest fundamental FX market information and trade a position based off this, where would be the best source/s of *immediate* market release information? ('immediate' being the operative word here as publishing fundamentals 2+ minutes too late means the market has potentially already moved)


----------



## TulipFX

tothemax6 said:


> Oh I hate the efficient market theory. The idea that all market agents are equal and that some cannot process information better than others, apart from being fatalist and flying in the face of evidence, is illogical. 'Bargains' in stocks (or perhaps currencies even) are not as simple to evaluated as 'bargains' in shoes and groceries. A shopping queue has one 'value', one 'input' and one 'output' - hardly a valid model for a stock, which has a huge number of inputs, outputs and values.




Efficient market theory is not absolute. It is a mistake to think so.


----------



## Frank D

*AUD/USD*


Based on Monday's trading and Tuesday being below the daily 50% 
level....(1.05)

The trend bias is down towards Tuesday's lows...

Breakout of Tueaday's lows in the 2nd 12 hour, and below the Weekly 50% level,
 will see more weakness towards the April 50% level & Weekly lows @ 1.0261/78


----------



## tothemax6

Neutral said:


> Say if you were to try to digest fundamental FX market information and trade a position based off this, where would be the best source/s of *immediate* market release information? ('immediate' being the operative word here as publishing fundamentals 2+ minutes too late means the market has potentially already moved)



Financial firms always get the information first. You can at best get it just after that.


----------



## Neutral

tothemax6 said:


> Financial firms always get the information first. You can at best get it just after that.




Makes me think that as a retail investor FX must be purely traded from a T/A perspective as the firms can't be 'pipped at the post'.


----------



## TulipFX

Neutral said:


> Makes me think that as a retail investor FX must be purely traded from a T/A perspective as the firms can't be 'pipped at the post'.




I believe so - at least in the short term. You can still trade the 4 hour or daily candles with a fundamental bent. With an honours degree in Economics I started out this way but quickly discovered trading technically is the only way to trade the forex market in the short term.


----------



## Frank D

*AUD/USD*

Early selling pressure on Tuesday, but the 2nd 12 hour pattern didn't 
provide a continuation pattern of a further weakness....

 instead it set up for a higher daily close...

Wednesday has already reached it's highs, but whilst above the weekly level
 @1.0536, we could see more buying towards the Weekly highs @ 1.0639


----------



## nukz

The USD is in freefall right now, AUD is going vertical


----------



## Wysiwyg

Yeah that is a wicked blast up. Killed this little AUD/USD bear last night.


----------



## tollbridge

TulipFX said:


> I believe so - at least in the short term. You can still trade the 4 hour or daily candles with a fundamental bent. With an honours degree in Economics I started out this way but quickly discovered trading technically is the only way to trade the forex market in the short term.




Yes, I love that fact. I'm not dismissing at all the benefits or discipline required to complete a university degree but I do get a bit of a kick out of making triple the amount my friends are who have just completed uni. Not to mention I work on my terms, my hours etc. 

Originally I was just going to trade CFD equities however my limited initial capital restricted me to trading forex - in my opinion a much more exciting, fast and convenient market. I gained NOTHING out of those free brochures the brokers give out "The top 10 mistakes made when trading CFDs" etc. Nor did I gain anything from paper trading. With brokers like IG offering minimum $1 contracts nothing beats real, hands on experience and the psychology behind it. I'll never stop learning but I knew since day one forex trading was the career for me!


----------



## Frank D

*AUD/USD*

AUD continues with the breakout above the April highs and extending towards
 the MAY highs...

It has also broken out of the Yearly highs @ 1.0612, which could see the
 extension up towards 1.17-1.18 (in 2011)

Random resistance (Thursday's highs -approx 1.0955)


----------



## Frank D

*AUD Weekly and Daily range*

AUD has continued to push higher (above Yearly highs @ 1.0612) , and can continue
 to follow the trend towards the Weekly and Monthly highs in MAY...

However, my view is that the AUD is starting with a *'2-day reversal pattern'*, 
as long, as it remains below 1.0955-62 (11am)


----------



## Frank D

*AUD/USD*

AUD has rallied in early Sunday trading, moving into the channel highs and 
also a precise 84 pip spiral top @ 1.1008

Monday is either going to settle above 1.0962 and then continue towards the 
Weekly highs...

or follow a 2-day reversal :- 10962 is the trend guide @ 11am


----------



## Wysiwyg

Frank D said:


> However, my view is that the AUD is starting with a *'2-day reversal pattern'*,
> as long, as it remains below 1.0955-62 (11am)




I hope so. Have short two bucks/pip from 1.10092 that it does.


----------



## professor_frink

Wysiwyg said:


> I hope so. Have short two bucks/pip from 1.10092 that it does.




Due you think you are being a little aggressive bring the stop into BE so quickly? Liquidity might be a little on the low side in europe tonight so there could be a fakeout before any real move down begins IMHO. 

Good luck with the short though, hope it goes well


----------



## Wysiwyg

professor_frink said:


> Due you think you are being a little aggressive bring the stop into BE so quickly? Liquidity might be a little on the low side in europe tonight so there could be a fakeout before any real move down begins IMHO.
> 
> Good luck with the short though, hope it goes well



 You may be right but if the upper trend channel line remains intact, a break of this new high will see price go past my entry more than I wish to tolerate. Thanks.


----------



## Frank D

*AUD daily range & spiral filter (84 pip)*

currently trading under 1.0962 @ 11am, after coming down from the 
earlier highs (spiral top)

Whilst it's below 1.0962, movement is based on 84 pips....with the view that it has
 the potential to continue for 2-days (random length)

To help validate a 2-day reversal pattern, it needs to break support levels in the
 12-hour @ 1.0081-1.0084


----------



## Wysiwyg

Frank D said:


> *
> To help validate a 2-day reversal pattern, it needs to break support levels in the
> 12-hour @ 1.0081-1.0084*



*
That scenario failed to unfold and a precision push to the same high as I shorted at has occurred. Gotta love how easy price is manipulated hey? Cost me nothin.*


----------



## Frank D

*AUD/USD*

AUD consolidating within a 84 pip range on Monday...

And the 2-day reversal pattern is now looking like a 2-day 'stall' pattern


----------



## Wysiwyg

professor_frink said:


> Due you think you are being a little aggressive bring the stop into BE so quickly? Liquidity might be a little on the low side in europe tonight so there could be a fakeout before any real move down begins IMHO.
> 
> Good luck with the short though, hope it goes well




That second rally to the same all time high was precision hey. Cost me nothing and with two smalls I was hardly a financial target. My belief that price would continue up if reaching that high again was made wrong.


----------



## Wysiwyg

Wysiwyg said:


> I hope so. Have short two bucks/pip from 1.10092 that it does.



So opened a short trade of two minis at 1.10092 with the aim of hitting a significant down move off the upper trend line. Moved stop to break even and went to work. 

The visual result of leaving my stop loss at break even while aiming for an intermediate or major top resulted in the price going back to my entry point before dropping away "considerably". The common play is to spike price higher than the previous high to catch out any close stops before falling away or just a continuation of the up trend.

Can't beat the house no matter what I do. Time to disconnect their vacuum cleaner.


----------



## Frank D

*AUD Weekly, Daily and Spiral filter*

AUD completes the *2-day reversal*, as it goes looking for the 
Weekly level @ 1.0796.

There hasn't been a breakout of the 5-day lows, therefore there is now the
 possibility that the trend can continue up towards this week's highs, and then
 the monthly highs.

*However, there isn't a valid long set-up to trade during the first 12 hours,*
 other than using random support around 1.0803/13 (Wednesday's lows)

AUD is either going to remain above support.....(consolidate 1 day, and then
 continue upwards over the next 2-days:- Thursday/Friday)

 or follow the dominate range of 84 pips and continue lower (breaking support)


----------



## Frank D

*AUD/USD*

Weekly level and Wednesday's support holding.....

If the trend is going to continue upwards, I've mapped out a possible price pattern
 that could occur today

However, there is always the possibility that Support breaks....

*therefore partial exit longs (41 pips from today's lows @ 1.0830*

and run stops below the lows (&) hold


----------



## professor_frink

Wysiwyg said:


> So opened a short trade of two minis at 1.10092 with the aim of hitting a significant down move off the upper trend line. Moved stop to break even and went to work.
> 
> The visual result of leaving my stop loss at break even while aiming for an intermediate or major top resulted in the price going back to my entry point before dropping away "considerably". The common play is to spike price higher than the previous high to catch out any close stops before falling away or just a continuation of the up trend.
> 
> Can't beat the house no matter what I do. Time to disconnect their vacuum cleaner.




Just a thought, perhaps look at scaling out as an alternative to trying to defend the entire position via a BE stop. Half the position off @3R, then leaving stop in it's original place can help with times like this where you would be shaken out before the move really begins.

I know you said that this trade cost you nothing, and looking at it from one perspective you are quite right. Looking at it another way you've basically picked the top to the pip and not made anything off the 200 pip move down. Pretty big opportunity cost IMHO


----------



## joea

Well i use CCI 13 bar chart to get a look forwards and there has been a bearish diverence for 6 days  before the turn of the $A.
Software says down to  about  $1.04.
However I am still trying to put the future into perspective, but may die first.
Cheers


----------



## Paulo30

Good advice. I only use scaling/averaging nowadays, in preference to close SL, for this very reason. Small 50-100p moves can also be countered by taking a much longer term view with much wider tolerance. This won't suit people hell bent on short-term and daytrading though.



professor_frink said:


> Just a thought, perhaps look at scaling out as an alternative to trying to defend the entire position via a BE stop. Half the position off @3R, then leaving stop in it's original place can help with times like this where you would be shaken out before the move really begins.
> 
> I know you said that this trade cost you nothing, and looking at it from one perspective you are quite right. Looking at it another way you've basically picked the top to the pip and not made anything off the 200 pip move down. Pretty big opportunity cost IMHO


----------



## Frank D

*AUD/USD*

AUD has risen 84 pips and stalled...

next leg from 11pm,  it's either going to continue to push up another 84 pips, as part
 of a move towards the Weekly highs by Friday..

or it's going to fail and continue back down breaking support


----------



## tothemax6

Frank D said:


> *AUD/USD*
> next leg from 11pm,  it's either going to continue to push up another 84 pips, as part
> of a move towards the Weekly highs by Friday..
> or it's going to fail and continue back down breaking support



So which is it, up or down?


----------



## Frank D

*AUD/USD*

Higher timeframe support levels held for the first 12 hours, but it was from 11pm
 that the next leg was going oi play out (each way bet)...

However, it was the 84 pip spiral filter pattern that favoured a continuation
 down (higher open):- resulting in a double 84 pip range.

AUD is now below Weekly support levels, target now becomes the
 Weekly 50% level @ 1.0640. Therefore there's an expectation that the trend
 will continue down on Thursday...

The 84 pip range favours a move upwards, which aligns with the levels in the daily range..

Therefore resistance is around 1.0809/20


----------



## Wysiwyg

professor_frink said:


> Just a thought, perhaps look at scaling out as an alternative to trying to defend the entire position via a BE stop. Half the position off @3R, then leaving stop in it's original place can help with times like this where you would be shaken out before the move really begins.



Yes a good strategy selling half. 



> I know you said that this trade cost you nothing, and looking at it from one perspective you are quite right. Looking at it another way you've basically picked the top to the pip and not made anything off the 200 pip move down. Pretty big opportunity cost IMHO



Make that 300 pips down now. I wonder what would have happened had I placed my stop higher. Not a question by the way.


----------



## Frank D

*AUD/USD*

Exact same pattern as yesterday....

Early move down into Thursday's Random support and a 41 pip rise (partial exit)
 with the expectation that the range will try and complete 84 pips during the current 
12 hour range

However, the Weekly levels are now different, as yesterday was above, and today
 is below...

Therefore the same pattern can play out as yesterday, or it flatlines until 11pm,
 and then decides whether it moves up 84 pips, or sells off down into the 
Weekly 50% level @ 1.0640, and as low as 1.0550 this week. (MAY 50% level)


----------



## Paulo30

Lousy retail figures today, and no sign of interest rate rises for a while.. I expect it to touch support around 1.05 or so.. commodities might also get hit due to declining Dow lately.



tothemax6 said:


> So which is it, up or down?


----------



## iced earth

_*AUD/USD :05.05.11*_

we had divergence between 4hr price and RSI and MCDI Histogram. also pair has broken the support line. 




in daily chart, we also have divergence between price and MACD .



but the most important reason for preventing pair for increasing above 1.10 was the upper (resistance) line of Andrew pitchfork in monthly chart.




the first support level is around 1.05 (fibo %38.2)


----------



## Frank D

*AUD Weekly and Daily range*

11pm breakout of the daily lows has seen the AUD move down into the 
MAY 50% level @ 1.0550.

At this stage it's too early to tell whether the MAY 50% level will hold support,
 or whether Friday continues with Thursday's breakout, and moves down into
 Friday's lows, which match the Weekly lows.

*Note:- the critical level in the AUD will be the Weekly lows 1.0484*

As we have seen with a number of Index and Commodity markets this week,
 these Weekly lows have broken out and have continued to trend down towards
 their MAY lows...

*MAY lows @ .9913*


----------



## Frank D

*AUD/USD*

11am rise on Friday, which then hit resistance, resulting in a 84 pip reversal...

And then a rally up into the Weekly level @ 1.0796 and resistance.

*Next Week's trend guide is the Weekly 50% level.*

By looking at the price action and the MAY 50% level support, and whilst the market remains above the 
Yearly highs @ 106.12...

my view is that the AUD will try and continue higher in the current month, with a 
view that's it trying to move towards the monthly highs @  1.12.


----------



## Frank D

*AUD Weekly and Daily range*

AUD remains above the Weekly 50% level, and as mentioned in the previous post, 
my view is that the AUD will continue higher.

However, in the daily range I don't have any long set-ups to help verify that 
view. (first 12 hours)

Currently AUD is trading around resistance @ 1.0792-98 ( 41 pips...)

*There are 3 possible patterns*

#1) Weekly 50% level pushes the AUD higher (breaks resistance)

#A) Tuesday continues down 84 pips, which matches precisely with the
 5-day 50% level (random support) @ 1.0723 (and then continues higher from 11pm

#B) Tuesday remains choppy and moves lower into 2nd 12 hour support.


----------



## Frank D

*AUD Weekly and Daily range*


Weekly 50% level support, and 2nd 12 hour breakout pattern should see the
 trend continue up towards Wednesday's highs (random resistance)....

as part of a move towards the Weekly highs by Thursday/Friday
*
Support:- 1.0820 (11am)*

Trailing support in case it dips early is yesterday's R84 spiral top @ 1.0792/98

*Note:- *I haven't factored in a reversal pattern into the 'dynamic' 5-day
 50% level @ 1.0742, but it can happen this week.


----------



## Frank D

*AUD/USD*

Sadly the AUD didn't rise up into the Wednesday highs (R84 top), because it 
would have provided a short set-up for a move back down into the start of 
11pm levels.

I wasn't expecting Wednesday's reversal on AUD to happen, but as pointed
 out yesterday... _"it could happen this week"_

And it did after 11pm. And it has also broken support levels (Weekly 50% level)

Based on the current price action and below support levels (Weekly 50% level and 
Daily 50% level) I would think Thursday will continue down into the daily lows...

From there (Thursday's lows) may or may not support the trend (random support), 
as it moves down into the lower Weekly levels.
*
I'll be wrong if the AUD begins trading above 1.0753*


----------



## Frank D

*AUD/USD*

AUD continues to remain above support levels (MAY 50% level) which also has a 
5-day low pattern on Friday.


This will normally see the AUD swing upwards for the 2-days, and back towards
 the Weekly 50% level


However, the only concern that could see more weakness early next week is 
the Weekly close below the Yearly highs @ 1.0612....


That will only be confirmed by a breakout of the weekly lows


----------



## Frank D

*AUD/USD*

As mentioned in the previous post....

The AUD will try and rise upwards for the first 2-days, however the 
Yearly highs @ 1.0612 can act as resistance.

We can see the AUD has now consolidated above the support levels
 (MAY 50% level)... and is currently back above the yearly highs @ 1.0612 
coming into the start of the 3rd Day (Wednesday & 11am)


if AUD is going to continue higher, then it's going to rise upwards from 11am 
using 1.0612 as support, which matches the levels in the daily range...


Otherwise, be aware of a 3rd day sell-off after the 2-day rise, if it begins
 selling down from that same level


----------



## G-Zilla

Thank you for the technical viewpoints Frank D - Im finding them most entertaining.

Out of interests - what are others' opinions fundamentally?

Im thinking over the next 6 months when floods/cyclone data settles down and our economy continues to take off with forced RBA rate rises we will be back to the 1.1 levels.

That of-course is if there are no issues overseas causing risk aversion although if the US restarts QE we could go even higher.


----------



## tothemax6

Fundamentals indicate future downside to AUD due to China tightening. However, AUD has a positive real interest rate, which makes it more attractive for investment against other currencies (which are mostly all negative real interest) - providing support to AUD.
Fundamentals also indicate that USD is garbage, due to massive monetary expansion, a massive government debt which looks unlikely to be restrained, and a lack of positive economic news.
My punt is hence AUD/USD bullish until Chinese construction boom stalls (could be this year, could be next), thereafter bearish.


----------



## Paulo30

Good analysis.. our currency mainly hinges on commodities and therefore China.. but this in turn depends on the US, the DOW, and the US economic situation in general. 

People such as Australian politicians seem to think China exists in a vacuum, but as soon as Walmart stop placing orders at their Chinese factories (as during the GFC), things start getting grim indeed.

Unfortunately, our whole economic policy and fed budget hinges only on China's continued expansion and growth.. like it will continue on forever exponentially.. if only it was that simple.




tothemax6 said:


> Fundamentals indicate future downside to AUD due to China tightening. However, AUD has a positive real interest rate, which makes it more attractive for investment against other currencies (which are mostly all negative real interest) - providing support to AUD.
> Fundamentals also indicate that USD is garbage, due to massive monetary expansion, a massive government debt which looks unlikely to be restrained, and a lack of positive economic news.
> My punt is hence AUD/USD bullish until Chinese construction boom stalls (could be this year, could be next), thereafter bearish.


----------



## G-Zilla

how do you guys think of asia, india and the rest of the developing world is effecting the AUD?


----------



## Uncle Festivus

Paulo30 said:


> Good analysis.. our currency mainly hinges on commodities and therefore China.. but this in turn depends on the US, the DOW, and the US economic situation in general.
> 
> People such as Australian politicians seem to think China exists in a vacuum, but as soon as Walmart stop placing orders at their Chinese factories (as during the GFC), things start getting grim indeed.
> 
> Unfortunately, our whole economic policy and fed budget hinges only on China's continued expansion and growth.. like it will continue on forever exponentially.. if only it was that simple.




I would lump Japan into the mix of things as a major trading partner with significant problems also ie just announced that they are officially back in recession. Japans reliance on domestic credit for funding took a big hit due to natural disasters so the timeline for the day of reckoning for them has been shortened by a few years, so they will face an even bigger financial crisis than they have now?



> Gross domestic product shrank 0.9pc quarter-on-quarter over January to March,    after a 0.8pc fall in the previous three months. Two consecutive quarters of    falling output represents an economy in recession.
> 
> With a national debt twice the size of its economy and an ageing population,    Japan was struggling even before the quake took out infrastructure along its    northeast coast and caused power outages.
> 
> Consumers have cut back more than expected in the wake of the disaster,    throwing doubt on assertions from policymakers that the main challenge is    disruption to supply chains.




As for China, so long as they have $US3Trillion freshly printed US dollars to get rid of they can go for a lot longer. That is, so long as the USD doesn't implode........then China will have diddly squat.......we will have even less?

Until then, trade the actual, even if overbought.........and decimating Aussie manufacturing.

What also hasn't been factored in is an interest rate CUT due to the deepening 'other half of the economy' recession - talk to any retailer how good the mining boom has been to them!


----------



## Frank D

*AUD Monthly and Weekly*

AUD continues to trade above higher timeframe support levels...

and if it's going to move towards 1.12 over the next couple of weeks, and 
beyond...(1.17+)

then it will helped or hindered by the US dollar and whether it collapses or not.

https://www.aussiestockforums.com/forums/showthread.php?t=6588&p=635931#post635931


----------



## ginar

with the opinion coming out that interest rates have topped for now im confident that weve seen the top in aud for this year and possibly for next also , now we have contango in forward future contracts of 30 day cash rates . will start posting analysis here in future . so just bumping this thread to get the ball rolling


----------



## ginar

chart of interest , well to me anyway  .


----------



## jbocker

What will the downgrade of the US credit (Standard and Poors) have on the AUD?

I must admit I thought the passing of the debt deal by the US govt earlier in the week would mean well for their stocks - but it didnt!


----------



## notting

Would Tech or skc know anything about au direction v US from technical point of view? It,s gotta be weekening from fundamental point. Though Jim Rogers thinks not.  Or any other guru?  I called it at 1.07 but never got round to taking the trade. True legend


----------



## Neutral

notting said:


> Would Tech or skc know anything about au direction v US from technical point of view? It,s gotta be weekening from fundamental point. Though Jim Rogers thinks not.  Or any other guru?  I called it at 1.07 but never got round to taking the trade. True legend




I reckon the AUD will drop further come the next RBA rates decision as the banks have already taken the initiative to drop their rates before an official rate decision. Also, Euro zone not looking well with anaemic growth issues of the 2nd and 3rd largest economies & AUD/USD correlates strongly with the EUR/USD. 

Technicals: http://www.dailyfx.com/technical_analysis/elliott_wave/?elliottWave=AUD/USD


----------



## iced earth

Aud/USD:22-08-2011

In daily chart we had a double top which reached the target around 0.993.now pair has the middle green dotted line as a resistance line, which was a support line before was broken down.




In weekly chart (logarithmic) , we have a Andrew Pitchfork , which the upper line acts as a resistance line and there is a red support line and if it breaks down we might see the pair get lower and the white dotted line and then middle line of pitch for are the next support lines.




Also in monthly (Linear) charts we are seeing the pair movement in a Andrew Pitchfork and the upper line is a very strong resistance level for the pair and there is a green support line which didn’t let pair fall less than 0.993 and if this support line breaks down the next support line would be middle of the pitchfork.




But if we study the monthly charts, we could see that the pair still has a bullish trend, (pair is above EMA 20 , Momentum above 0 and MACD above signal, and whenever price get in touch with EMA20 and Momentum to 0 and MACD to signal we would have support levels and if these be broken down we might have a long term downtrend.It means as long as we have stay in signal we might see longterm pattern of AUD/USD bullish.


----------



## tothemax6

Neutral said:


> I reckon the AUD will drop further come the next RBA rates decision as the banks have already taken the initiative to drop their rates before an official rate decision. Also, Euro zone not looking well with anaemic growth issues of the 2nd and 3rd largest economies & AUD/USD correlates strongly with the EUR/USD



I'd say the USD bit causes the correlation 
If they RBA leaves rates steady at the next policy meeting, it would be madness. If they dropped it - it would be outright malicious. They have a set of rules they must play by - and the primary one is 'inflation between 2 and 3 percent'. To refuse to tighten policy as inflation accelerates would be against their rules.


notting said:


> Would Tech or skc know anything about au direction v US from technical point of view? It,s gotta be weekening from fundamental point. Though Jim Rogers thinks not.  Or any other guru?  I called it at 1.07 but never got round to taking the trade. True legend



From a fundamental view point AUD will remain strong whilst China and the mining boom powers on, and the USD will fall due to loose monetary policy, a floundering economy, and a large government debt that can't possibly be repaid. 
From a technical point of view, I'm sure there is an inverted laughing squirrel in the chart somewhere.


----------



## prawn_86

From parity to 98c in the last 4 - 5 hours. It's gunna be fun at work tomorrow


----------



## iced earth

AUD/USD: 4-10-2011
================================
As I mentioned before the upper line of pitch fork acted as very strong resistance line and the pair couldn’t pass up over it around 1.10 and started to fall.
Also the support line (Red line) could not halt the fall and now the strong support line would be consider the middle line of the pitch fork. Also around this support we have the green line would be acted as support line too




In daily chart also we are seeing the pair is touching the middle line of the pitch fork. it seems the logarithm charts is more valid in this case




the ugly look of the pair (not ugly at all for our exporters)in monthly chart is that we are seeing the sell signal from momentum, EMA 20 and MACD/SIGNAL and as we could see the last time we had sell signal (white circle) in 2008 the pair went below 0.65 .


----------



## iced earth

TA of Aud/Usd - 24 Nov 2011
===================================

In 4hr charts, we could see that the pair is moving in a downward blue channel and after the pair passed down the red support line now is facing the lower line of the channel which could hold the pair from more fall but even so, the pair has the upper line of the channel as the resistance line.




In daily chart, after the pair touch the important level of 0.94 , moved up till around 1.07 which has previous pick and could not pass it up. Now the pair has the valid and important of level .94 (red line) and blue support line and if these could not hold the pair from further fall, we should see the pair at least around .9 




Also in monthly chart, we could see Andrew pitchfork, around .94 , middle line of the pitchfork acted as support line and we should see if this line could work for aus/usd this time or not


----------



## Nero64

Can someone please tell me how the AUD/USD traded today. 

I bought in at around 1.20pm today at .9747 on stop and then my broker price fell to .9703 over the next 1-2 hours. Then it rose again to be over .9750, but I got stopped out at .9710.

I cannot correlate my brokers (IG Markets) pricing or trading range to any forex chart I have seen today. 

I smell bucket shop - market making tactics and it's starting to sicken me. I think I learnt a lesson not to trade at such a time as liquidity is not there during our lunch time.


----------



## Timmy

Nero64 said:


> Can someone please tell me how the AUD/USD traded today.
> 
> I bought in at around 1.20pm today at .9747 on stop and then my broker price fell to .9703 over the next 1-2 hours. Then it rose again to be over .9750, but I got stopped out at .9710.
> 
> I cannot correlate my brokers (IG Markets) pricing or trading range to any forex chart I have seen today.
> 
> I smell bucket shop - market making tactics and it's starting to sicken me. I think I learnt a lesson not to trade at such a time as liquidity is not there during our lunch time.




Here is a 10 minute bar chart from http://www.dailyfx.com/charts/netdaniachart/
Shows a dip towards the 9710 level (underlined).


----------



## Boggo

I have similiar to Timmy with Alpari data on a 5 min chart.

(click to expand)


----------



## choofer

Boggo said:


> I have similiar to Timmy with Alpari data on a 5 min chart.
> 
> (click to expand)




man the life boats dude, blub blub blub


----------



## iced earth

TA of Aud/Usd - 28 Nov 2011
===================================
As it was mentioned, the pair started to increase when touched lower line of the channel (support line).
Now the pair is breaking up the downtrend channel, If it could manage to hold it up , the target would be around 1.025. But before reaching that, it will face the resistance blue line around 1.00.


----------



## iced earth

TA of Aud/Usd - 30 Nov 2011
===============================
As it was predicted, after the pair breaks up the channel stated to rise but the blue resistance line didn’t let it pass.
if it could pass this reissuance line, the target of the channel around 1.025 could be reached.


----------



## iced earth

TA of Aud/Usd - 02 Dec 2011
===============================
As it was predicted, after the pair breaks up the channel stated to rise but the blue resistance line didn’t let it pass.
after few hours the pair could pass this reissuance line successfully and reached the target of the  channel . now the blue line is acting as support line for the pair.


----------



## Bill M

iced earth, I for one would like to thank you for your T/A on the AUD/USD situation. I refer back to this thread quite often. I don't have much of a clue for T/A so your posts, boggo's, Frank D's and others make reading this thread very informative. I spend a lot of time overseas, I've seen the AUD go to .49c in the past and at these levels I am thinking about buying the ETF "USD". I have to protect a bit of my travelling money for the future. I'm just not sure when to buy the ETF but it may be soon. Thanks again to all of you, cheers.


----------



## Frank D

*AUD/USD Primary cycles*

Primary cycles on the AUD remain in an uptrend defined by the Yearly 50% levels.

2007, early 2008, 2010, and now 2011 has provided the Primary support level.

Therefore any further gains in 2012 will be defined by the next year's 
50% level....

and same applies on weakness... (next 2 years)


----------



## Whiskers

Frank D said:


> *AUD/USD Primary cycles*
> 
> Primary cycles on the AUD remain in an uptrend defined by the Yearly 50% levels.
> 
> 2007, early 2008, 2010, and now 2011 has provided the Primary support level.
> 
> Therefore any further gains in 2012 will be defined by the next year's
> 50% level....
> 
> and same applies on weakness... (next 2 years)




Could the yellow lines be interpreted like a Bollinger (Band) squeeze?

I'm leaning toward the Aus economy going backward, a bit further toward recession in line with the rest of the world and the AUD trending lower. We had a fiscal and economic advantage going into the GFC, but that has been whittled away.


----------



## Frank D

Whiskers said:


> Could the yellow lines be interpreted like a Bollinger (Band) squeeze?




I'm not sure about a Bollinger squeeze, but the yearly 50% level gives you a
 good indication on how the AUD is fairing in the Primary cycles

If it begins to sell down in the first 2-weeks of 2012, (probably have a good idea 
looking at the lesser timeframe cycles coming into the end of this year) then
 the 2012 yearly lows @ .9198 will most likely support the price for about 6-9 months.

And if you believe that the Australian economy is going backwards, then 
look for a continuation of a 2 year downward pattern in the back half of 2012. 
(4th Quarter)

Otherwise, it's up an onward towards 1.12+


----------



## Whiskers

Well, the RBA has taken a rare step in cutting two months in a row to 4.25.

That's probably going to cause some seriously close watching of what other international factors develop in the near future and recalculating of portfolios.

I felt (as mentioned or was that bragged : earlier) the RBA was too quick to raise rates and too slow to start lowering again and not surprised to see them cut two in a row.

The question now is how are the markets going to interpret our so called cautiously conservative RBA's reaction... panic and sell off?!


----------



## Trader101

The 2 drivers of the AUDUSD to record highs earlier this year are the interest rate differential (which drives the current care trade and the EM equity story.
 Now that that the market is pricing the cash rate to be around 3.5% by end 2012 (in the bill futures), the interest rate differential reduced significant from expectation at the beginning of the year (when all economist were talking about multiple hikes this year. From this perspective I think the carry trade could start to unwind with any further negative economic news and that may lead to correction in AUD prices. 
Secondly, RBA has mentioned for the first time concerns over the Chinese economy, China property price main driver of growth has started to stalled and PMI is now in contraction, these data is not consitnent with an economy that is growing at 9%. If China continue to slow (no reason to see this not happening then commodity prices driven boom for AUD could come to an end and the Australian economy will fall back to the slower pace of the 2 paced economy


----------



## Frank D

*AUD Primary and Weekly cycles*

AUD is being pushed upwards at the start of the new Primary cycle for 2012...

Helped by a breakout of the Weekly highs.

As long as the AUD remains above 1.0222, the long term trend remains Bullish.


----------



## Frank D

*AUD Weekly cycles*


Primary trend in 2012 is to move as high as 1.12+

Current price action is a 2-month wave pattern towards February's highs 
(potential resistance zone in the first Quarter)


----------



## notting

Started buying US dollars yesterday.
Benanke hinted at easing to put a floor under the current confidence being expressed by US markets.  This gave the Ausi$ a pop.
I suspect Benanke is hoping that when the time comes people will be saying "We really don't need it now."
It was just a confidence trick. I manintain the view that there will be no QE3.
If QE3 actually happened things would not be looking good and there is no way the AU$ will be above $1 in that senario.
Remembering of course - the market is sane and rational and I am not.


----------



## Starcraftmazter

Well according to their latest announcement, pretty much anything short of their predictions in terms of employment will trigger QE3 so long as inflation undershoots their expectations (which are not low by any means).

Gold didn't rocket for nothing after that announcement, it should be obvious that QE3 is coming unless there is a very strong employment recovery (which is definitely not going to happen).


----------



## Frank D

*AUD Weekly Cycles*

AUD completing the break and extend pattern, after finding support this week.

Primary trend suggests a move towards $1.12 in 2012...

However, these upper levels in February will begin to form resistance zones in the
 1st quarter

Too early to tell when it will happen, but my view is that price will revisit the
Monthly 50% levels during this current Quarter, or the next before it completes
 the move towards 1.12.

Current monthly 50% levels reside around $1.03.

first sign of a rotation down will be price trading back inside the dynamic Weekly 
cycle levels (white)


----------



## Frank D

*AUD Weekly cycles*

My view is that the AUD has reached a 1st quarter top (February highs) 
and will begin to unwind towards the Weekly lows.

how quickly it moves down depends on next week's 50% level, as price could
revisit the upper weeky level @ 1.0792.

Overall target remains 1.12 for this year, but a move downward before another
move upwards coming into the 2nd Quarter would be an ideal 
pattern (text-book)


----------



## Bill M

The following is interesting, click on the link to watch the short interview.

---
Five experts give their views on what will happen to the Australian dollar as the year unfolds.

http://www.abc.net.au/news/2012-02-08/the-experts-predictions-the-dollar/3819466
---


----------



## Starcraftmazter

Last time they had 5 "experts" on lateline (business), they claimed the asx200 would close over 5000 in 2011 and interest rates would rise.


----------



## notting

Aus US is starting to perform as expected!
I wonder whether the China slow down is really engineered or just getting harder to hide so they are pretending to have a new target!
That with Benanke coming clean on "no QE3" is a double whammy for AU Vs US IMO.


----------



## prawn_86

I just hope it stays above parity till June while I am on holidays


----------



## Neutral

prawn_86 said:


> I just hope it stays above parity till June while I am on holidays




Just load up a Travelex with $USD and lock in the rate.


----------



## Frank D

Frank D said:


> *AUD Weekly cycles*
> 
> My view is that the AUD has reached a 1st quarter top (February highs)
> and will begin to unwind towards the Weekly lows.
> 
> Overall target remains 1.12 for this year, but a move downward before another
> *move upwards coming into the 2nd Quarter would be an ideal
> pattern* (text-book)




*AUD Monthly and Weekly cycles*

AUD has drifted down coming into the end of the first Quarter and start of the next.

If the AUD is going to continue to follow the Primary cycle target of 1.12...

*then the 2nd Quarterly 50% level is the Support zone*

Below those support levels and AUD's primary Upward trend is open to Risk.


----------



## Ares

Hello Everyone,









Will be drop down?
I shorted@1.0335


----------



## Ares

Drop now
But nobody here?


----------



## notting

Ares said:


> But nobody here?




What?
Position is long US, still, here, relaxed and smiling!


----------



## Ares

notting said:


> What?
> Position is long US, still, here, relaxed and smiling!




Hello
Nothing, maybe time lag, haha


----------



## prawn_86

Please make sure posts are on topic and not low content. Any further low content or non sensical posts will be removed


----------



## Admiral Markets

AUD/USD gone through parity for first time this year. RBA likley to cut further.
China tentative to stimulate for fear of bubbles, overheating property market. Euro situation/political instability undermining confidence in global risk assets. Commodity prices falling.

Not a great backdrop for AUD. How much lower is it going to go? Thoughts? Downside targets?


----------



## howmanyru

I think AUD still has a way to fall, just wait for unemployment to reach a critical mass. . Australia was protected with the mining boom and FOB grants, not any more.


----------



## numbercruncher

howmanyru said:


> I think AUD still has a way to fall, just wait for unemployment to reach a critical mass. . Australia was protected with the mining boom and FOB grants, not any more.





I agree -

The Gov no longer has the capacity to throw away enormous amounts of money on Ridiculous stimulatory projects - they are razor axing soooo much stuff at all levels of Government, the writing is on the wall - 

Then time will roll by and eventually they will inflate the world economy again , probably even over inflate  - and so the cycle may very well repeat .....


----------



## prawn_86

I havent been at work for a few months so missing my usual analysis, but if we are finally entering a recession in Aus, then interest rates will keep heading down, meaning the AUD yield is no longer as attractive which will also continue to put pressure on the AUD


----------



## yunn

prawn_86 said:


> I havent been at work for a few months so missing my usual analysis, but if we are finally entering a recession in Aus, then interest rates will keep heading down, meaning the AUD yield is no longer as attractive which will also continue to put pressure on the AUD



  do mean that aud will defenately LOW DOW today @ later tomorrow? @ maybe by NY season it bounce back UP
 just my 2cent ....


----------



## Frank D

*AUD Monthly and Weekly cycles*

The rot in the Aussie dollar started as price hit the April 50% level and then the cut in 
interest rates on the 1st of MAY leading to a break of support (2nd Quarter 50% level)

Trend bias is down in the Quarterly levels around the mid .94's, as part of the
 break and extend pattern from the MAY lows into the June lows.

However, there is 1 week to go in MAY, and often price can rotate upwards into
 the following monthly 50% level...

and then once again rejected down into the June lows, completing the break 
and extend pattern :- SUPPORT

The Weekly level @ .9818 will define whether the last week of the month
 continues down or rotates upwards into the June 50% level.


----------



## prawn_86

Double top forming on the hourly chart?

With better than expected GDP figures yesterday gave the AUD a real boost, but personally i cant see it being above parity before the Greek elections. A short here with a stop just above parity probably wouldn't be a bad trade...


----------



## beatthemarket

a lot of short covering overnight...

resistance around 1.0235 and 1.0247... QE rhetoric fueled break could take us to 1.037..


----------



## CanOz

beatthemarket said:


> a lot of short covering overnight...
> 
> resistance around 1.0235 and 1.0247... QE rhetoric fueled break could take us to 1.037..




Yeah, i can't understand how the bobble-heads are claiming all the rally is QE3 when Gold was flat to down?? 

There is only one way that's possible, the big end of town knows there won't be any QE3 and they weren't in that rally...it was the little end of town pushes prices up and covering. 

Crappy little rally on light volume! Lookout below...

CanOz


----------



## notting

CanOz said:


> There is only one way that's possible, the big end of town knows there won't be any QE3 and they weren't in that rally...it was the little end of town pushes prices up and covering.



Almost all the traders I saw were saying they were not expecting it from the FED, many were thinking Euro should and will when it must.


----------



## OGRooney

Bam that was exciting... Who'se still long? I'm getting worried that we're not going to break last weeks high - just keep banging our heads against resistance at .0410


----------



## cogs

With the trending nature of AUD/USD it looks like the big picture of AUD is a huge bull flag.

Here's my piece, see how it plays out.

A push up to the median line approx 1.052 ish, retrace then up to the 1.068 1.070 mark before bear'ing up again. How much the retrace will be be before the last push up will depend on % bulls vs bears in this recent weeks burst in volume easily seen in the vol bars.

It broke through the recent resistance, mostly thanks to Draghi's hot air comment with a little verbal german support. I placed a short there but that will be taken out with my stop, no big deal, but will be averaging in my shorts over the next few cents climb.

Will be interesting to see if the flag plays out or it turns into a roll over.

Anyone else care to make a call?


----------



## OGRooney

I've earned some decent swap holding my longs on this pair over the past couple weeks


----------



## cogs

OGRooney said:


> I've earned some decent swap holding my longs on this pair over the past couple weeks




I've been doing ok short with the swaps on EURAUD also.


----------



## cogs

Ok, now it's delving more and more into overbought with little retracement, but the aussie is well known for it.


----------



## OGRooney

Just broke trend line resistance dating back to June 20, I've entered again, lets see what happens
Still pushing 75 on the 4 hour RSI, I hope I haven't jumped the gun... either way my euro shorts should cover me


----------



## cogs

Added a few more shorts, seems a little too early as it still may see 1.06 yet before a convincing roll, either way it's running out of puff and some sellers are coming in.

Will be interesting to see what the QE chat on Thursday has on it, appears to be so much factored in already.

The AUD is one of the only good setups at the moment, most of the rest are pure ****, but great for market makers.


----------



## TulipFX

In the long term you'd have to think the AUDUSD will come off a bit. Our good run economically will slow eventually. Plus US elections coming up - that usually strengthens the USD too.


----------



## OGRooney

TulipFX said:


> In the long term you'd have to think the AUDUSD will come off a bit. Our good run economically will slow eventually. Plus US elections coming up - that usually strengthens the USD too.




I saw predictions 4-5 months ago that the buck would surge, but then rebound - never again to see it's former glory. I was dubious back then, but the second phase seems to be playing out. Also I've read the following comment numerous times over the past few months "This is about Euro weakness, not dollar strength".

Also Gilliard's speech a few months ago telling business to "get used" to a stronger Dollar.

We'll see what happens over the next few months/years I guess.


----------



## CanOz

Interesting interview on the Bloomy yesterday about the AUD becoming one of the favorite trading currencies now, as it is a proxy for so many things in the current macro environment, China/Asia, mining, Gold, risk, etc.

Makes for some good moves if that's your thing.

CanOz


----------



## OGRooney

CanOz said:


> Interesting interview on the Bloomy yesterday about the AUD becoming one of the favorite trading currencies now, as it is a proxy for so many things in the current macro environment, China/Asia, mining, Gold, risk, etc.
> 
> Makes for some good moves if that's your thing.
> 
> CanOz



It is interesting isn't it, RB might have to implement price controls ala the Swiss


----------



## prawn_86

OGRooney said:


> It is interesting isn't it, RB might have to implement price controls ala the Swiss




RBA barely ever publicly intervenes and certainly hasnt done so in the last 15yrs. Never say never, but the likelihood of this happening is virtually zero


----------



## CanOz

prawn_86 said:


> RBA barely ever publicly intervenes and certainly hasnt done so in the last 15yrs. Never say never, but the likelihood of this happening is virtually zero




I can't see it happening either Prawn. I read somewhere one time that over the long term currency intervention doesn't work anyway. Its a short term politically motivated method to 'appear' to voters that they are doing something...

Buying a ton of US debt (manipulation) does the same thing for a longer period of time i reckon!

CanOz


----------



## OGRooney

prawn_86 said:


> RBA barely ever publicly intervenes and certainly hasn't done so in the last 15yrs. Never say never, but the likelihood of this happening is virtually zero



I agree, some big exporters would have to be in big trouble for that to occur.


----------



## OGRooney

CanOz said:


> I can't see it happening either Prawn. I read somewhere one time that over the long term currency intervention doesn't work anyway. Its a short term politically motivated method to 'appear' to voters that they are doing something...
> 
> Buying a ton of US debt (manipulation) does the same thing for a longer period of time i reckon!
> 
> CanOz



The SNB have said they're willing to buy "unlimited amounts of foreign currency" - that seems like a pretty costly way of tricking voters don't you reckon? This is about the worldwide drop in Swiss army knife sales :

Anyway sorry for getting off topic with my hypothetical if I feel like discussing price controls further Ill open a separate thread.


----------



## CanOz

OGRooney said:


> The SNB have said they're willing to buy *"unlimited amounts of foreign currency"* - that seems like a pretty costly way of tricking voters don't you reckon? This is about the worldwide drop in Swiss army knife sales
> 
> Anyway sorry for getting off topic with my hypothetical if I feel like discussing price controls further Ill open a separate thread.




That's manipulation, not intervention. Its a long term campaign to devalue the currency. The Japanese were always very good at intervention, as well as buying tons of US debt.

Cheers,


CanOz


----------



## OGRooney

CanOz said:


> That's manipulation, not intervention. Its a long term campaign to devalue the currency. The Japanese were always very good at intervention, as well as buying tons of US debt.
> 
> Cheers,
> 
> 
> CanOz




ahh, so it was my original use of the term price control that was incorrect? I should have said maybe the RB will implement a currency manipulation strategy like the Swiss?


----------



## CanOz

OGRooney said:


> ahh, so it was my original use of the term price control that was incorrect? I should have said maybe the RB will implement a currency manipulation strategy like the Swiss?




Whatever mate...i just wanted to point out the difference between intervention as i see it, and manipulation...

Carry on AUD...

CanOz


----------



## cogs

Looks like some early attempts at consolidation down to nearly 23%, showing quite bullish still, but certainly not time to take new longs. Amazes me how the AUD can just go and go and go.

Hopefully it can exhaust this current run with a surge up to 1.061 ish. Still overbought on a daily basis tho.

Waiting for this damn QE and Euro news. Most of the currencies are. Consolidate, consolidate.....


----------



## DB008

cogs said:


> Looks like some early attempts at consolidation down to nearly 23%, showing quite bullish still, but certainly not time to take new longs. Amazes me how the AUD can just go and go and go.
> 
> Hopefully it can exhaust this current run with a surge up to 1.061 ish. Still overbought on a daily basis tho.
> 
> Waiting for this damn QE and Euro news. Most of the currencies are. Consolidate, consolidate.....




As I said in the GFC and Iron Ore thread, there certainly seems to be some weakness creeping in from our side of things.

BHP/Woodside/Origin cancelling expansion projects. Iron Ore price coming down in price. Europe is still a mess. China is slowing down. Some currency's parking their money here because of the global turmoil, almost keeping our AUD artificially afloat, or higher than it should be...

I really do wonder where the AUD will be in 6-12 months time. I have no idea myself.


----------



## Edwood

http://www.elliottwavemarketservice.com/2012/08/australia-running-out-of-luck-down-under/

Mauldin has some good narrative from time to time, in this report his focus is the 'lucky country' which some of you should find interesting given potential currency effects


----------



## notting

Ausi looking strong today, gaining on employment data!
Yeah, there really going to be raising rates on that retrospective figure whilst we are looking to fall into our own mined hole.
Looking to see what Ben does, may get a bit more of an AU$ pop if he prints, then buy US$.


----------



## prawn_86

notting said:


> Ausi looking strong today, gaining on employment data!




Strong?? We are only about 40 points off a 5 week low, and could easily test lower in the current climate.

Personally i think we will see a releif rally up to around the 1.0270 level before heading further down (if we do)


----------



## cogs

Managed to find the last top, found the bottom and left a couple of longs to run, anyone care to pick this top?

I am not fully convinced yet but it is definately at the reversal point, whether we see acccumulation and another run, well I'll simply watch and wait. Many (incl myself) would say, well over bought.

I don't think QE's will hold no where near as much punch every time a new stage is released, the shine is fading already.


----------



## TulipFX

There is an interesting opinion piece in Fairfax today on the AUDUSD:

http://www.brisbanetimes.com.au/business/what-to-do-about-the-musclebound-dollar-20120917-2615i.html



> The dollar is rising once more because Fed chairman Ben Bernanke has announced QE3. He will be printing an additional $US40 billion per month to buy MBS. The reasoning of markets goes that this will debase the US dollar so it therefore sells US dollars, and buys ours.
> 
> But in truth, $US40 billion is not a lot of money nor a persuasive debasement of the currency at all. QE1 was $US1.5 trillion. QE2 was $US600 billion. Moreover, and here's the real point, the $US is so completely dominant in global currency trade that it turns over some $US3.6 trillion per day.
> 
> While we're not supposed to compare a stock (amount of dollars in circulation) with a flow (the turnover of those dollars), the discrepancy in the comparison is so vast that it gives you an idea of just how paltry the Fed's efforts really are.


----------



## >Apocalypto<

Took a buy into the AUDUSD today. ent at 1.04605 thinking this could turn into a higher low with another shot at 1.0600. exit plan at 1.0300ish to the downside. anyone know what caused the intraday spike?

maybe this 
14:44 	JPY 	Monetary Policy Statement
14:44 	JPY 	Overnight Call Rate


----------



## prawn_86

>Apocalypto< said:


> anyone know what caused the intraday spike?




Timing wise it corresponds with the BOJ decision/reinforcement to keep IR rates low and increase asset purchases to 55 trillion yen


----------



## cogs

Yep, ditto about B.O.J conference.

Got out of my longs just after the turn, wasn't watching the screen to get in on the 4hr pin bar short, dam!

Tried shorting it along with eurusd and gbpusd and i n short, it's just ****! The bots are eating up any reversal trend. Gunna stay out of this crap and just watch and wait for something worthwile again.

It's really starting to get obvious when the heard is in control the bots can't play so it's easy money, but as soon as the trend/heard tire's the bots just rape any potential goods positions. Anyone who has been in the game a long time would recognise what I am gong on about.

Never mind another good run is just around the corner.


----------



## Joules MM1

http://www.cmegroup.com/education/files/commodities-as-a-currency-driver-2012-09-20.pdf

*Aussie, Canadian Dollars Lead Commodity Correlation Rankings*

http://www.cmegroup.com/education/f...search/White+Paper)&utm_content=Google+Reader


----------



## >Apocalypto<

cogs said:


> Yep, ditto about B.O.J conference.
> 
> Got out of my longs just after the turn, wasn't watching the screen to get in on the 4hr pin bar short, dam!
> 
> Tried shorting it along with eurusd and gbpusd and i n short, it's just ****! The bots are eating up any reversal trend. Gunna stay out of this crap and just watch and wait for something worthwile again.
> 
> It's really starting to get obvious when the heard is in control the bots can't play so it's easy money, but as soon as the trend/heard tire's the bots just rape any potential goods positions. Anyone who has been in the game a long time would recognise what I am gong on about.
> 
> Never mind another good run is just around the corner.




the BOJ fade caught my long as well. still think the AUD has upside bias. but it's in a disputed area atm. the 1.018 low is where i would like to see it stay above to keep thinking bull with it. still in a hell of a range since 05/2011.


----------



## cogs

Don't know about you but the only worthwhile trades are in London open at the moment, the asian market seems thin and full of algo's.

It's easy to see aussie market hrs trying to push the AUD down, but all it seems to do is create a bargain for London/US then big sell of back to aussie close.

Man what a battle this baby is for those of us who don't stay awake all night!


----------



## CanOz

cogs said:


> Don't know about you but the only worthwhile trades are in London open at the moment, the asian market seems thin and full of algo's.
> 
> It's easy to see aussie market hrs trying to push the AUD down, but all it seems to do is create a bargain for London/US then big sell of back to aussie close.
> 
> Man what a battle this baby is for those of us who don't stay awake all night!





Thin on the Dax too i see. Seems like only volume is hitting the bid!

CanOz


----------



## cogs

Haven't seen rubbish like this for a while. All MM proxy fills, wafer thin.

I'm staying flat for a while till currencies find some direction.


----------



## >Apocalypto<

really liking what i am seeing on AUD today taken a buy on AUDUSD @ 1.0418. looking for a test of 1.06 as long as my stop holds at 1.0316.


----------



## cogs

So did I and was well positioned eur, aud and xau lovely bullish type behaviour until the USD went skyward, which always seems to be a trap now, rape the stops out.

You really have to trade each session on their own now, Asia, Euro and US, then be flat before each starts now days. Each session sets up play before the next starts, over sold, over bought or if it's flat expect London to push it to an extreme. 

What major news did I miss last night, Cad GDP, US personal spending?


----------



## >Apocalypto<

cogs said:


> So did I and was well positioned eur, aud and xau lovely bullish type behaviour until the USD went skyward, which always seems to be a trap now, rape the stops out.
> 
> You really have to trade each session on their own now, Asia, Euro and US, then be flat before each starts now days. Each session sets up play before the next starts, over sold, over bought or if it's flat expect London to push it to an extreme.
> 
> What major news did I miss last night, Cad GDP, US personal spending?




hi Cogs,

I just made it out of the sell down to support. still long and looking to ad but it's tricky as RBA rate call is tomorrow. I think on hold but you never know atm. he have a doji pin bar on support.


----------



## professor_frink

>Apocalypto< said:


> hi Cogs,
> 
> I just made it out of the sell down to support. still long and looking to ad but it's tricky as RBA rate call is tomorrow. I think on hold but you never know atm. he have a doji pin bar on support.




I think they need to cut here, probably won't though. Either way I think there's a day or 2 more of chop to the  downside before we can put in another rally


----------



## >Apocalypto<

professor_frink said:


> I think they need to cut here, probably won't though. Either way I think there's a day or 2 more of chop to the  downside before we can put in another rally




thought against a add to my aud long this morning. took 50pips out yesterday on two 1 hour trades. Just going to sit on the aud daily long till the RBA comes out. Have a eurusd 1 hour long now and picked up a buy on gold off the daily as gold looked the strongest of the three on the daily. post rate cut will look at aud again if I am still in. got a bad feeling there will be a slush down on a cut to a retrace.... but depends on the cut, time will tell. 

a bit of an intraday rally going on aud... hold punters seem to be positioning.

fink you still short term trading? I was trading one min with daily and 1 hour my main time frames but I am dropping it as it too bloody hard!


----------



## cogs

I'm out at the moment. AUD appears set to go either way with US market closing pretty much mid stream. Might wait and pick up on the reversal. My charts kinda show faid out those stops up to 1.045 ish.




Gold is really indecisive as well and at a dangerous point for leveraged traders, a great bull trap for those who can influence the price. Triple top and could easily retrace to blow out the stops, but there are so many small gold bulls.


----------



## >Apocalypto<

> I'm out at the moment. AUD appears set to go either way with US market closing pretty much mid stream. Might wait and pick up on the reversal. My charts kinda show faid out those stops up to 1.045 ish.
> 
> View attachment 49156
> 
> 
> Gold is really indecisive as well and at a dangerous point for leveraged traders, a great bull trap for those who can influence the price. Triple top and could easily retrace to blow out the stops, but there are so many small gold bulls.




Cogs,

Love the rainbow, been a while since I looked at one of those!

Just amazing at how different it makes the price look.




Eur 1 hour you can see the trade trend continuation off the 21ema with minor pin bar spinner with entry bar closing as higher high. my stop has been moved up as the trade went into profit.




I agree about the position the price is at undecided and in a arm wrestle. but based on the current trend strength and the higher low it's put in I am punting on a break out of the current set up. I like pin bar that set up the move to the high, also like the higher low its put in to current test i bought in at.

waiting and waiting, euro and aud softer.... could see a stop on eur trade.


----------



## cogs

Yeah I use the rainbow just for a longer term view, have to look past the prettiness of it and see which MA's it has actually crossed to be usefull, not sure if it helps much.

Ended up taking a small short on the AUD, see how she goes.




As for gold, you have to get in early on those tops and keep a tight stop, hope you have some luck and it runs for you. Thought we were going to see the due drop in USD last night which would have set things in motion but appears the powers that be don't want the gold jump just yet, or just fishing.


----------



## cogs

Now if only the old GBPounder would behave and rollover just after I get another short in.


----------



## >Apocalypto<

adjusted my stop survived the rate cut on the eur trade... then closed it manually as was thinking to much... as normal, off it goes up on the new bar... dumb dumb dumb.

**my aud daily has been stopped. 
**Gold Daily still kicking.


----------



## Joules MM1

for those on the learning curve .....a freebie

https://twitter.com/HFT_Currencies



> Fari Hamzei ‏@HamzeiAnalytics
> 
> We have activated @HFT_Currencies for trading @CMEGroup listed #Currency #Futures Contracts ... it is open to all for balance of 2012


----------



## cogs

Bit of a lonely old thread this one, FF is a little too busy and can have too many varied contributions, so anyone interested in calling the next major bottom?

I don't think it's out of the question we will see parity ~1.005 and eventually 0.9750. Of course it could also retest 1.05 but I don't think the countries fundamentals want to see it again for a little while.

View attachment 49241


----------



## >Apocalypto<

cogs said:


> Bit of a lonely old thread this one, FF is a little too busy and can have too many varied contributions, so anyone interested in calling the next major bottom?




FF is a mad house. 



> I don't think it's out of the question we will see parity ~1.005 and eventually 0.9750. Of course it could also retest 1.05 but I don't think the countries fundamentals want to see it again for a little while.




well i was thinking AUD was at a floor till late/early sat morning when it took beat down... shorted it on demo, didn't have the guts to live trade it at that stage in the week. i have no idea at the moment see what monday tues have to say.. still very unpopular after the rate cut with a lot of dumping going on with little long interest.... pisses me off cuz I have about 5k in EUR to buy in a week for stock! but this area of 1.0170 is showing some support atm.


----------



## cogs

Weekend trading has it at 1.0167 a.t.m, so it looks like a gap down tomorrow AM open. Light volume asian session usually rises slightly so I'll be holding my short and may place a long with a tight B.E. just to milk what I can from the commercial faders, they could fade up to 1.021 ish IMO, if not, more shorts and let it fall.


----------



## prawn_86

>Apocalypto< said:


> I have about 5k in EUR to buy in a week for stock! but this area of 1.0170 is showing some support atm.




If you are doing international TT's and >50k pa AUD worth PM me and i should be able to help you out, i work for a non-bank


----------



## >Apocalypto<

> If you are doing international TT's and >50k pa AUD worth PM me and i should be able to help you out, i work for a non-bank




Thanks for the heads up Pawn, I will see where the AUD is in a weeks time.

Today's gamble trade.

Long on the AUDUSD, very small position as its a counter trend trade. 

we had a pin bar on the 5/10 with inside bar after today's opening hour. looking for a rally to the 21ema or a low run and stop out.


----------



## >Apocalypto<

>Apocalypto< said:


> Thanks for the heads up Pawn, I will see where the AUD is in a weeks time.
> 
> Today's gamble trade.
> 
> Long on the AUDUSD, very small position as its a counter trend trade.
> 
> we had a pin bar on the 5/10 with inside bar after today's opening hour. looking for a rally to the 21ema or a low run and stop out.




long is gone... seller tried again but stiff resistance at 0150.... very stiff. going to sit on where it goes from here.

remember daylight savings so London open is at 6pm melb time i believe now.


----------



## cogs

Just going to let the shorts run now and wear the swap, think we have a ways to go but with every drop like usual, there will be wild kicks up.

Weekly chart shows a good rollover but it would take some time to play out.


----------



## >Apocalypto<

cogs said:


> Just going to let the shorts run now and wear the swap, think we have a ways to go but with every drop like usual, there will be wild kicks up.
> 
> Weekly chart shows a good rollover but it would take some time to play out.




I'm looking to buy.. end of this 1 hour bar. doble bottom fail bear run.

****bought in, looking for 20 pips to the upside stop at the low of the last 1 hour bar


----------



## >Apocalypto<

>Apocalypto< said:


> I'm looking to buy.. end of this 1 hour bar. doble bottom fail bear run.
> 
> ****bought in, looking for 20 pips to the upside stop at the low of the last 1 hour bar




stop 1 pip over BE.... hit the range top


----------



## cogs

Anyones guess at the moment, this time last year it took a plunge to 0.96 after a top of 1.07. Talk is it will stay up here for some time, I'm still biased for shorts as per weekly chart potential rollover.


----------



## >Apocalypto<

cogs said:


> Anyones guess at the moment, this time last year it took a plunge to 0.96 after a top of 1.07. Talk is it will stay up here for some time, I'm still biased for shorts as per weekly chart potential rollover.
> 
> 
> View attachment 49396




higher low setting up on 1 hour at 1.0318 supportat the weeks close.... but still plum in a down move.. Coggs I am with you think the aud will hold around its current range 1.06 to 1.01. unless somthing comes out to spook it... rate cut still on the cards for NOV... the med trend still up for now. a drop back into the 1.2 could show something else... but i am only guessing. 40 pips for this week so looking to next week for a futher move down or a cont of the current up move from our last low.


----------



## CanOz

Similar to what i posted on the EURUSD thread, here is the AUD...

CanOz


----------



## TulipFX

March 2014 futures are trading at 0.99300 for what its worth.


----------



## cogs

Starting to look more like this early appearing 'rollover' on the weekly charts, may due to fundimental reasons, turn into a flag to go bullish. Still some time to take place yet but it appears Aust banks and R.B are less likely to be able to get the aud down, and I am reading more about more money shifting to asia, either way I am only short term, but my views are shifting.


----------



## >Apocalypto<

cogs said:


> Starting to look more like this early appearing 'rollover' on the weekly charts, may due to fundimental reasons, turn into a flag to go bullish. Still some time to take place yet but it appears Aust banks and R.B are less likely to be able to get the aud down, and I am reading more about more money shifting to asia, either way I am only short term, but my views are shifting.




planing a short in 5 min... lower high pin bar set up.

Short @ 1.03477


----------



## wallyt99

*Re: AUD/USD - up, down, turn it around?*



wallyt99 said:


> Pure random guess.....
> 
> The AUD will continue to diminish for 6 months to say 57c....then gradually move up to over the next few years, eventually overtaking gaining parity on the back of the next China based commodity price boom.




Fark.... wish I banked that guess from 08


----------



## CanOz

*Re: AUD/USD - up, down, turn it around?*



wallyt99 said:


> Fark.... wish I banked that guess from 08




LOL, great macro call mate!


----------



## cogs

wallyt99, wanna give it another go?

Overnight markets since the RBA call have been selling off fairly heavily, with mainly local market being the only buyers. Still not certain myself, but the recent channel has to see it down to at least high 1.02's.

Tulip, Actually 2014 futures value might be within reach if the RBA makes a drop call on interest rates next month to spur on christmas spending.

Short swap is a bit of a killer though.


----------



## TulipFX

There are also rumours about that the RBA is printing money to satisfy foreign central bank's desire to hold AUD. These central bank transactions are off market (not that there is a central fx market) and it is one way the RBA can put downward pressure on the AUD without dropping interest rates. We saw late last week that the AUD stood up stronger than the other currencies against the USD rally. Only the future knows what will happen.

This is all just discussion. I never trade on my opinions and only trade using algorithmic systems - so please don't you trade on it either!


----------



## cogs

4th day in a row the asian session pushed up the AUD, makes me wonder if it's part of the ploy to drive it down.


----------



## cogs

The norm is 3 days, they stretched a 4th day out of it, but the 5th was just too much, at last the asian sold off. Wait and see if US buys up.

Seriously looks like  some good shorts coming up though.

Anyone else in on the action?


----------



## Joules MM1

*Aussie $ and Canadian $ Become World Reserve Currencies – Chart*

by Sean Brodrick on November 20, 2012






			
				Sean Brodrick said:
			
		

> Marketwatch has the story …
> 
> The Australian and Canadian dollars, the world’s leading commodity-rich currencies, are being formally classified as official reserve assets by the International Monetary Fund, marking the onset of a multi-currency reserve system and a new era in world money.
> 
> Expanding by two the list of officially recognized reserve assets from the present five ”” the dollar, euro, sterling, yen and Swiss franc ”” signals a new phase in the development of reserve money.
> 
> Sean’s note – the more reserve currencies there are, the less important the U.S. dollar becomes. Here’s a 6-month performance chart comparing the U.S. dollar versus the Aussie and Loonie.
> 
> Sean’s note – the more reserve currencies there are, the less important the U.S. dollar becomes. Here’s a 6-month performance chart comparing the U.S. dollar versus the Aussie and Loonie.
Click to expand...



http://blog.uncommonwisdomdaily.com/aussie-and-canadian-become-world-reserve-currencies-chart-9091


----------



## Joules MM1

more of the same, AUD and CAD reserve currencies

anecdotally, these types of news/events are often precursers to a reversal, or a large degree pullback, in perceived value
http://www.marketwatch.com/story/au...ies-2012-11-19?link=MW_story_investinginsight


----------



## TulipFX

There was this article in Business Spectator today: http://www.businessspectator.com.au...g-investment-CEDA-AUD-dollar-pd20121121-28SAR

2015. Apparently doomsday. If the Mayans were incorrect and the whole thing doesn't stop two shopping days before Christmas this year.


----------



## Joules MM1

COT report



go to 2.56


----------



## >Apocalypto<

Fellow FX players, Moday is looming as a big one for the AUD the US sit at 3pm Washington time to (i hope) find a agreement. if they fail expect to see some solid selling on the AUD USD.


----------



## Uncle Festivus

Taking some hits the last 2 days with the employment report and Chinese GDP by the looks of it?

Looking to test 1.05 again soon??


----------



## >Apocalypto<

Uncle Festivus said:


> Taking some hits the last 2 days with the employment report and Chinese GDP by the looks of it?
> 
> Looking to test 1.05 again soon??




closed above 1.05 for the weeks close UF.... and has jumping off 1.05 - 1.0480> all week. still in a range pattern started in AUG 12


----------



## cogs

Rates up or down Tuesday?

AUD up or down as a result?

Hovering around key support, but many need/want the AUD to decline against the USD, but to my knowledge, 'they' have not tried much in the way of manipulation, except jaw boning.

My thoughts are the AUD has been groomed to this support level in time for the next interest rate release to see whether the decision will push it through ~1.016 or bounce off up to ~1.035 - ~1.055. I favour continuation through to 0.97 longer term.


----------



## Douglas Class

AUD/USD  DAILY as of Friday, 29 March, 2013
A Daily black body has formed (because prices closed lower than they opened).
For the past 10 Daily candlestick bars as of 29/03/2013, there are 6 white candles versus 4 black candles with a net of 2 white candles.
For the past 50 Daily candlestick bars as of 29/03/2013, there are 25 white candles versus 25 black candles.
A Daily spinning top has formed (a spinning top is a candle with a small real body). Spinning tops identify a session in which there is little price action as defined by the difference between the open and the close. During a rally or near new highs, a spinning top can be a sign that prices are losing momentum and the bulls may be in trouble.Three Daily black candles has formed during the last three Daily bars. Although these candles were not big enough to create three Daily black crows, the steady downward pattern is bearish.
An Inside Day Narrow Range was detected by your Elliott Waves High Volatility on 29/03/2013. This is usually a trade set-up opportunity .
Elliott Waves High Volatility has detected an Isolated Low at 1.04 one bar ago ; this is usually a bullish sign that is not to be used alone! Elliott Waves High Volatility has detected a Gann Swing or Pullback that is usually a bearish pattern!
The present wave patterns are:
fast amplitude (8%): bullish wave 1
moderate amplitude (13%): bullish wave 3
Australian Dollar / US Dollar is long term Bullish as the 144 days moving average of 1.04 is increasing. The Relative Strength Index is at 55.27 in the neutral territory. The Relative Momentum Index is at 65.90 in the neutral territory. An important indicator for Elliott waves, the Elliott oscillator is at 0.01, in positive territory; this is a bullish sign. An equally important indicator, the STORSI is at 19.47. This value is in the oversold territory.


----------



## prawn_86

Interesting that 8 out of the last 10 Mays the AUD has fallen against the USD. Forming a little base at the moment, i would expect it up above parity within the next 4 - 6 weeks


----------



## Bill M

prawn_86 said:


> Interesting that 8 out of the last 10 Mays the AUD has fallen against the USD. Forming a little base at the moment, i would expect it up above parity within the next 4 - 6 weeks




Hi Prawn, on what basis do you say this?

I certainly hope you are correct for my own selfish reasons (ie. overseas trip coming up) but I am genuinely wondering why.

I know you work in the industry of forex so I am interested in hearing your thoughts. I mean there is plenty of articles out there suggesting it will go the other way, cheers.


----------



## pixel

prawn_86 said:


> Interesting that 8 out of the last 10 Mays the AUD has fallen against the USD. Forming a little base at the moment, i would expect it up above parity within the next 4 - 6 weeks




On the other hand, the weekly chart could be interpreted as a triple top at 1.06, giving me a target of 96c. Were that target undershot, 93-94c could be hit inside 4-6 weeks as well.


----------



## Boggo

approaching an area of potential reversal on the 15 min 

(click to expand)


----------



## prawn_86

Bill M said:


> I know you work in the industry of forex so I am interested in hearing your thoughts. I mean there is plenty of articles out there suggesting it will go the other way, cheers.




Interesting to note that most of these articles only came about once the AUD had broken down below parity. Before that they were all saying how there is no end in sight for the high AUD.

My feeling is mainly gut to be honest, however a very similar pattern is playing out to last May, when it dropped from 1.0450 down to 0.96 and then recovered well after that. I know there have been a couple interest rate cuts since then, but that didnt seem to bother the market previously, and this move seems to mainly based on the technicals when the 1.02 support was convincingly breached. We still have a great comparative yield here and can see that supporting us.



pixel said:


> On the other hand, the weekly chart could be interpreted as a triple top at 1.06, giving me a target of 96c. Were that target undershot, 93-94c could be hit inside 4-6 weeks as well.




Agree, decent support around 0.96, below that my analysis would change. That triple top is something i hadnt considered though.

I'm not saying the recovery will begin from now, maybe more short term weakness, but would be very surprised if not above parity within 4 - 6 weeks. (It will stay down just to spite me now i have made my call public  )


----------



## Boggo

Boggo said:


> approaching an area of potential reversal on the 15 min




Turned as expected, second short target hit 

(click to expand)


----------



## prawn_86

Boggo said:


> Turned as expected, second short target hit
> 
> (click to expand)




Possibly the first time i have seen EW used before the action 

Nice trade btw


----------



## Boggo

prawn_86 said:


> Possibly the first time i have seen EW used before the action




You need to read more prawn 
https://www.aussiestockforums.com/f...t=13052&page=2&p=770312&viewfull=1#post770312


----------



## MARKETWINNER

Dear Friends

Prawn- 86 I like your following statement.

Interesting to note that most of these articles only came about once the AUD had broken down below parity. Before that they were all saying how there is no end in sight for the high AUD.


According to following link there could be a wave of selling in the Australian dollar if the currency breaks an important support level. I am not familiar with these technical jargons. Do you think this support level is critical? 

Please see following link

http://online.wsj.com/article/SB10001424127887324767004578486180339299860.html?mod=googlenews_wsj


----------



## Bill M

prawn_86 said:


> Interesting to note that most of these articles only came about once the AUD had broken down below parity. Before that they were all saying how there is no end in sight for the high AUD.
> 
> My feeling is mainly gut to be honest, however a very similar pattern is playing out to last May, when it dropped from 1.0450 down to 0.96 and then recovered well after that. I know there have been a couple interest rate cuts since then, but that didnt seem to bother the market previously, and this move seems to mainly based on the technicals when the 1.02 support was convincingly breached. We still have a great comparative yield here and can see that supporting us.




Thanks for that, it will be interesting to see where it will be in 6 weeks.

Today I saw this this article:

---
Goldman: AUD Is Doomed; To Fall To 0.80 On Pure Macro Fundamentals

Link here: http://www.efxnews.com/story/18779/goldman-aud-doomed-fall-080-pure-macro-fundamentals
---


----------



## DB008

I have shifted positions.

Am now short AUD-USD through a ETF.


----------



## Bill M

DB008 said:


> I have shifted positions.
> 
> Am now short AUD-USD through a ETF.




I have bought the ETF USD a few times now but each time I have to out weigh the benefits if any. I often think about the interest I am losing if I had the AUD sitting in my online account paying me 5% income rather than putting it into the ETF that pays nothing. Then there is brokerage, $20 in and $20 out. It is a hard gamble but if the AUD is going to collapse 20% it still might be worth it.


----------



## >Apocalypto<

prawn_86 said:


> Interesting that 8 out of the last 10 Mays the AUD has fallen against the USD. Forming a little base at the moment, i would expect it up above parity within the next 4 - 6 weeks




.96 is my bounce point...I sold it at 102 got out at parity.... mistake there i know. but 2cents is 2cents.

i'm looking for a correction (rally) around here, then looking for new shorts. (AUDUSD daily)


----------



## DB008

Bill M said:


> I have bought the ETF USD a few times now but each time I have to out weigh the benefits if any. I often think about the interest I am losing if I had the AUD sitting in my online account paying me 5% income rather than putting it into the ETF that pays nothing. Then there is brokerage, $20 in and $20 out. It is a hard gamble but if the AUD is going to collapse 20% it still might be worth it.




Yes, I agree. I purchased it through my SMSF. Gearing is difficult when purchasing through a SMSF.

Up 3% in about 10 days so far. I know, it's not much, but I can hold this one for a while to make (hopefully) a substancial gain.


----------



## MARKETWINNER

Today I saw following article.

http://www.afr.com/p/business/sunday/may_transcript_the_aussie_dollar_rS3dsK4aJRhdYB4sJry1XP
May 19 transcript: the Aussie dollar


----------



## havaiana

That 2 and a half year low is looking very close right now


----------



## prawn_86

havaiana said:


> That 2 and a half year low is looking very close right now




0.9389?

For me we are right on support at the moment (weekly chart), and another down day below this will see us test that 0.9380ish, which is the next support zone.

Cant post a chart as I am at work


----------



## havaiana

prawn_86 said:


> 0.9389?
> 
> For me we are right on support at the moment (weekly chart), and another down day below this will see us test that 0.9380ish, which is the next support zone.
> 
> Cant post a chart as I am at work




Yep that's the one, i reckon if it doesn't hit it this week we will get there after a few days retrace/range it's got to where it is now mighty quickly. If i was a long term trader i would wait for 9380 to be taken out and then start building a long position, positive swap for the win

Today/Asia if it breaks 9650 and momentum drops off i think i will play a range or small retrace to the upside. If retrace happens I like sells above 710 or again around 755 if it got there. Then again by the looks of things now it could just continue to drop....


----------



## prawn_86

FWIW i'm still calling a bounce and test of parity, unless we close on the daily down below 0.96 on the daily candle, in which case 0.9389 is the target.

I'm supposed to be going to the US soon, i'm losing purchasing power fast


----------



## havaiana

prawn_86 said:


> FWIW i'm still calling a bounce and test of parity, unless we close on the daily down below 0.96 on the daily candle, in which case 0.9389 is the target.
> 
> I'm supposed to be going to the US soon, i'm losing purchasing power fast




Quick, go exchange now before it hits 9580, grab some for me too


----------



## CanOz

prawn_86 said:


> FWIW i'm still calling a bounce and test of parity, unless we close on the daily down below 0.96 on the daily candle, in which case 0.9389 is the target.
> 
> I'm supposed to be going to the US soon, i'm losing purchasing power fast




Don't feel bad, we lost 10K in a recent CNY/AUD transfer....


----------



## MARKETWINNER

Even some top banks and currency strategist also bearish on both AUD and NZD.

Please see following links:

http://online.wsj.com/article/BT-CO-20130523-701074.html?mod=googlenews_wsj

http://www.bloomberg.com/video/saxo...ew-zealand-dollar-Q_oXCHItQl26ZAdC~RdzVQ.html

Saxo Sees Downside Risks for New Zealand Dollar 

I think NZD dollar can fall more than CAD or AUD.

My ideas are not a recommendation to either buy or sell any security or currency. Please do your own research prior to making any investment decisions. Please note that I do not endorse or take responsibility for material in the above hyper-linked sites.


----------



## >Apocalypto<

fellow bottom pickers... I have taken a long at .96314 like this as a bounce point. Lines up with lows on this line to 12/2010.... SL .9530 small trade due to SL .1 lots


----------



## >Apocalypto<

>Apocalypto< said:


> fellow bottom pickers... I have taken a long at .96314 like this as a bounce point. Lines up with lows on this line to 12/2010.... SL .9530 small trade due to SL .1 lots




Stop at BE


----------



## MARKETWINNER

Pleas see following link about bearish outlook on AUD

http://www.economy-news.co.uk/austr...ustralian-dollar-outlook-is-negative-45364343

The outlook for the Australian dollar (Currency:AUD) has deteriorated through Friday trade with analysts forecasting further declines.

https://mninews.marketnews.com/inde...analysts-aud-fall-sign-alignment-fundamentals

ANALYSTS: AUD Fall Sign Of Alignment With Fundamentals

Please note that I do not endorse or take responsibility for material in the above hyper-linked sites


----------



## prawn_86

>Apocalypto< said:


> Stop at BE




Stopped out?


----------



## Muschu

Touring at the moment and arrived in Quebec City yesterday from the US.  Back to New England before heading home in a week.  Bought some $US before we left home in April.  But have needed to access money since.  

However I still feel fortunate with the current rate as I recall being in a situation in 1993 when we needed significant US dollars.  I could go back to check but, roughly, I think a Australian dollar was worth around 70 cents US at the time.


----------



## >Apocalypto<

prawn_86 said:


> Stopped out?




yep stopped was a couple above ent hit by the low... still like a long but going to wait for it to build.


----------



## prawn_86

>Apocalypto< said:


> yep stopped was a couple above ent hit by the low... still like a long but going to wait for it to build.




Yeh I think it is touch and go at the moment. Strong support around here, but it is looking like needs a decent consolidation before moving higher. As per above posts, daily close below 0.96 suggest look out below


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## prawn_86

Not looking healthy at the moment, its going to need something convincing to turn it around by the looks, where that will come from I don't know


----------



## CanOz

prawn_86 said:


> Not looking healthy at the moment, its going to need something convincing to turn it around by the looks, where that will come from I don't know




DB on the 15 min chart Prawn...just coming out of a wedge too..


----------



## beachlife

Thanks for the heads up Can.  I thought you might be interested in a different perspective.  I didnt see a double bottom pattern, it had too many peaks in between the bottoms and the main peak was not in the middle of the bottoms, and in any case it was a long way from confirming, but I thought many would trade it, which it seems they did.  I thought I would check when the US woke up and see if the big boys would come in and trigger their stops.  I saw the bars on the 15min chart had hit the MA, so I switched to a 2 min chart and took the short signal the system I am testing gave, and let it run with a trailing stop for a profit of around 3 times risk.  The trailing stop didnt trigger but I exited when price jumped back over the MA.  No vol, no DOM, no Tick charts, no patterns, just a moving average and a trailing stop while watching TV.  (The other market that I am testing on also picked up 50 points at the same time)  It's early days and usual disclaimers apply.  Just thought you might be interested.


----------



## prawn_86

haha as soon as my call was made public I knew we wouldn't get a rally I was expecting 

Next downside target around the 0.9370 mark


----------



## VSntchr

prawn_86 said:


> haha as soon as my call was made public I knew we wouldn't get a rally I was expecting
> 
> Next downside target around the 0.9370 mark




If you don't mind me asking Prawn, are you trading currency? Or just interested/posting due to your work involvement?


----------



## CanOz

beachlife said:


> Thanks for the heads up Can.  I thought you might be interested in a different perspective.  I didnt see a double bottom pattern, it had too many peaks in between the bottoms and the main peak was not in the middle of the bottoms, and in any case it was a long way from confirming, but I thought many would trade it, which it seems they did.  I thought I would check when the US woke up and see if the big boys would come in and trigger their stops.  I saw the bars on the 15min chart had hit the MA, so I switched to a 2 min chart and took the short signal the system I am testing gave, and let it run with a trailing stop for a profit of around 3 times risk.  The trailing stop didnt trigger but I exited when price jumped back over the MA.  No vol, no DOM, no Tick charts, no patterns, just a moving average and a trailing stop while watching TV.  (The other market that I am testing on also picked up 50 points at the same time)  It's early days and usual disclaimers apply.  Just thought you might be interested.
> 
> View attachment 52475




Pretty much pure price action, Al Brooks style sort of

Thanks but i rarely trade currencies...i do like to see the order flow, one day i suppose i'll have another crack at gold and crude live...

Good trading...

CanOz


----------



## white_goodman

CanOz said:


> Pretty much pure price action, Al Brooks style sort of
> 
> Thanks but i rarely trade currencies...i do like to see the order flow, one day i suppose i'll have another crack at gold and crude live...
> 
> Good trading...
> 
> CanOz




glutton for punishment, crude and gold are nightmares... hang seng-esque in volatility and order book


----------



## CanOz

white_goodman said:


> glutton for punishment, crude and gold are nightmares... hang seng-esque in volatility and order book





Yeah i know...but better the devil you know sometimes....

There are heaps of little things on each markets that i have come to appreciate. Besides, I've had them open on my desktop for so long now they're like a pair of screen savers.

Are you still spreading Whitey or did you move on to other things?

CanOz


----------



## >Apocalypto<

prawn_86 said:


> haha as soon as my call was made public I knew we wouldn't get a rally I was expecting
> 
> Next downside target around the 0.9370 mark




i'm long again Prawn... ent 95727 looking at that last move down as final by the bears... looking for 98-99


----------



## prawn_86

>Apocalypto< said:


> i'm long again Prawn... ent 95727 looking at that last move down as final by the bears... looking for 98-99




Yeh fair enough. Daily close above 0.96 is a positive sign for longs


----------



## >Apocalypto<

prawn_86 said:


> Yeh fair enough. Daily close above 0.96 is a positive sign for longs




also long EUR/$ on 1 hour with a upside targer of of 20 pips opened start of this 10am hour bar. ent 1.29473.. SL 1.29290


----------



## white_goodman

CanOz said:


> Yeah i know...but better the devil you know sometimes....
> 
> There are heaps of little things on each markets that i have come to appreciate. Besides, I've had them open on my desktop for so long now they're like a pair of screen savers.
> 
> Are you still spreading Whitey or did you move on to other things?
> 
> CanOz




yeah only in the STIR type products due to work/masters


----------



## >Apocalypto<

>Apocalypto< said:


> also long EUR/$ on 1 hour with a upside targer of of 20 pips opened start of this 10am hour bar. ent 1.29473.. SL 1.29290




Good trade Thursdays continue... E/$ tp hit AUD still busting... Stop at BE on A/$ long tp in at .9860


----------



## MARKETWINNER

http://www.theaustralian.com.au/bus...ear-two-year-low/story-e6frg916-1226654734582

Aussie dollar near two-year low


----------



## notting

Flipped it today.
Had a good run!
Looking/hoping for a retrace back to about US1.015.  The market should start having doubts about further RB easing due to inflection point found with last move.  That should at least stabilise it for the moment.  However I'm expecting .92 then .85 where it will eventually settle between that an .80 for longer term IMO


----------



## prawn_86

notting said:


> However I'm expecting .92 then .85 where it will eventually settle between that an .80 for longer term IMO




What timeframe? 0.80 is a big call


----------



## notting

Can't really offer a time frame at this point.
I'll be happy to start buying again anywhere above 97c, then just sit back and keep a lazy eye on it.
2 years max!


----------



## MARKETWINNER

​_According to Professor Ross Garnaut, prominent economist and former economic advisor to the Australian government, has said the Australian dollar might drops to 70 or even 60 US cents.

According to some analysts reason for coming dollar fall is lower commodities prices. It can be one of the reasons. More than that time to time money will flow one basket of currencies to another basket of currencies or some other assets. I believe money will outflow from currencies such as NZD and AUD to other currencies in the coming months, quarters and years. Still there can be short term rally in NZD or AUD. However intermediate trend for AUD and NZD is down now.

http://finance.ninemsn.com.au/newsbusiness/motley/8668836/will-the-aussie-dollar-fall-to-60-us-cents

Will-the-aussie-dollar-fall-to-60-us-cents

My ideas are not a recommendation to either buy or sell any security or currency. Please do your own research prior to making any investment decisions. Please note that I do not endorse or take responsibility for material in the above hyper-linked site._


----------



## pixel

MARKETWINNER said:


> _Will-the-aussie-dollar-fall-to-60-us-cents_[/I]




Wouldn't be bad for some:
It would certainly mean more tourists would come from Overseas, while Aussies would spend their holiday Dollars at home rather than outside. 
Exporters would also be smiling: for example, were the price for iron ore to drop to US$80, at parity, they'd receive $80, but at 80c they'd still get $100 a ton. Huge difference if your costs are AU$85.

Only our "poor" politicians would need another hefty pay rise, so they could afford to stay in five-star hotels on those taxpayer-funded fact-finding missions abroad


----------



## notting

MARKETWINNER said:


> According to some analysts reason for coming dollar fall is lower commodities prices. ]




Total rubbish.  These morons build these retrospective stories after the fact, trying to find a reason without seeing the elephant staring in their face.

I is simply the 'surprise' recent interest rate cut that found the inflection point.

These 'stories' can however add weight to the downward sentiment once the slide has begun.


----------



## prawn_86

notting said:


> Total rubbish.  These morons build these retrospective stories after the fact, trying to find a reason without seeing the elephant staring in their face.
> 
> I is simply the 'surprise' recent interest rate cut that found the inflection point.
> 
> These 'stories' can however add weight to the downward sentiment once the slide has begun.




Agree totally.

Interesting to note the ANZ has now changed their year end forecast to 0.92, down from 1.05. They simply chop and change whenever they want. Easiest job in the World if you can get it


----------



## MARKETWINNER

_According to following link Mr. Aitken is calling a rout and warned that pricking the Aussie dollar bubble won’t be pretty to watch.

“The Australian dollar has been one of the most obvious bubbles in the financial world,” he argues in a note. “I remain of the view that this Australian dollar correction will get disorderly.”

http://blogs.wsj.com/moneybeat/2013/06/05/aussie-dollar-faces-grave-danger/

Aussie Dollar Faces ‘Grave Danger’

My ideas are not a recommendation to either buy or sell any security or currency. Please do your own research prior to making any investment decisions. Please note that I do not endorse or take responsibility for material in the above hyper-linked site._


----------



## DB008

white_goodman said:


> glutton for punishment, crude and gold are nightmares... *hang seng-esque in volatility and order book*




What does that even mean?


----------



## boofis

DB008 said:


> What does that even mean?




Hang Seng Index, Hong kong futures exchange. It's fairly thin and moves really quickly with 100+ tick moves. Orderbook is just the DOM, ladder, etc. Hope that helps.


----------



## DB008

boofis said:


> Hang Seng Index, Hong kong futures exchange. It's fairly thin and moves really quickly with 100+ tick moves. Orderbook is just the DOM, ladder, etc. Hope that helps.




Thanks.
Only thing I've traded with big moves were Cocoa futures (warrants), but that was a long time ago.


----------



## FifyOn

Market Going to act crazy today. Non-Farm Employment change going to move the market!! Trading Crazy today!!


----------



## MARKETWINNER

_According to following links AUD can go down further. Suddenly some analysts including bank economists also have become bearish on AUD. As I said before AUD dollar has entered amulti-year bear cycle and the dollar (USD) has entered a multi-year bull cycle.However there can be dead cat bounce for AUD time to time. Intermediate trend forAUD is down now. 

http://www.thebull.com.au/premium/a/38270-4-reasons-to-bet-on-a-lower-aussie-dollar.html

4 Reasons To Bet On A Lower Aussie Dollar

http://www.businessspectator.com.au...stralian-dollar-slides-under-us94c-late-trade

Australian dollar slides under US94c in late trade

My ideas are not a recommendation to eitherbuy or sell any security or currency. Please do your own research prior tomaking any investment decisions. Please note that I do not endorse or take responsibility for material in the above hyper-linked sites_


----------



## DB008

Down.....


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## mr. jeff

DB008 said:


> Down.....




Anyone watching this spike up - very strong.


Wonder when to get the short on.


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## prawn_86

Fell off the proverbial cliff last night. Bernanke didn't say anything we didn't already know but the selling pressure on the AUD is intense on any sniff of negative news.

Seems to have been a paradigm shift now and would take a big turn around to get back to the parity level.


----------



## tech/a

prawn_86 said:


> Fell off the proverbial cliff last night. Bernanke didn't say anything we didn't already know but the selling pressure on the AUD is intense on any sniff of negative news.
> 
> Seems to have been a paradigm shift now and would take a big turn around to get back to the parity level.




Its just economics.
Restricting supply of USD will make it more valuable.
Investors in currency go where the value is.
AUD wont hold until interest rates are lowered.

As for equities.

Going down Is my view.


----------



## prawn_86

tech/a said:


> Its just economics.




Yes and no. Most of this information has been in the market or known for at least 3 - 4 months, if not longer. The break down below parity kicked the market into action.

What I am trying to say is that in the last 6 weeks, there has not been any new news to cause a 13% fall. If it was simply economics, the fall would have been more gradual


----------



## mr. jeff

prawn_86 said:


> Yes and no. Most of this information has been in the market or known for at least 3 - 4 months, if not longer. The break down below parity kicked the market into action.
> 
> What I am trying to say is that in the last 6 weeks, there has not been any new news to cause a 13% fall. If it was simply economics, the fall would have been more gradual




What about sustained news of AU economic contraction from construction, manufact and mining ?


----------



## prawn_86

mr. jeff said:


> What about sustained news of AU economic contraction from construction, manufact and mining ?




Yes that plays a part, but your key word there is sustained. If it was simply based on economics, and didn't have an irrational emotional portion of its trading, then the fall would have been more gradual. Bernanke didn't say anything last night that we didn't know, so why did it fall >2%? Fear and greed, not just economics


----------



## caribean

HSBC China PMI didn't help during the Aussie session, (Reuters)
Who would be brave (or foolish) enough to buy?


----------



## mr. jeff

caribean said:


> HSBC China PMI didn't help during the Aussie session, (Reuters)
> Who would be brave (or foolish) enough to buy?




Looking for signs of a rebound now. 
Will possibly enter a long if I can identify it.
Short on time though.

anyone else looking   ?


----------



## caribean

mr. jeff said:


> Looking for signs of a rebound now.
> Will possibly enter a long if I can identify it.
> Short on time though.
> 
> anyone else looking   ?



In my case it would have to be one of those rare occasions where one of my short term trades was at  BE and did not get wiped out so it had a chance to run longer term.
There's always a price to pay when attempting to catch a trade like that.


----------



## mr. jeff

There may be the possibility of a revisit to the 93.55 level however I would not recommend playing in woodchipper.
I can't recall seeing such a move down before. Breathtaking and not in a nice way. I have not been in the FX market and very glad.
But try and tell others about it and their eyes look about as glazed as an iced donut. 
Oh the dollar fell a few cents ?  Oh well there goes my cheap books.


----------



## MARKETWINNER

http://www.guardian.co.uk/world/2013/jun/20/australian-dollar-33-month-low

Australian dollar hits 33-month low

The local currency is being sold heavily as the US central bank prepares to wind down its stimulus program


----------



## Boggo

Not a pretty sight tonight !
(click to expand)


----------



## weasel

Boggo said:


> Not a pretty sight tonight !
> (click to expand)




MTPredictor? That software any good?

Worth it?


----------



## Boggo

weasel said:


> MTPredictor? That software any good?




I think it is very good at what it is designed to do.



weasel said:


> Worth it?




That depends on whether you understand what it does and how you can make it work for you.
For me it is worth it.


----------



## bullhunter

c'mon aussie c'mon.. rally back up to 92.5 cents. A 99% buy sentiment on the trading program I'm using. Don't let me down AUD.


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## MARKETWINNER

http://www.theaustralian.com.au/bus...re-rba-rate-cuts/story-e6frg926-1226673721252

Australian dollar hits Sept 2010 low on talk of more RBA rate cuts


----------



## beachlife

I dont trade with Gann or Fibb but like to have a look every now and then, so this is the weekly chart and it often amazes me how old points of support and resistance end up having a relationship to the 50% level of the range, and in this case so do the 25% and 75% levels.  Perhaps 80c will again be a significant point in a few months time and will be interesting to see if the 25% level will stop any run up (disclosure - I intraday trade this but dont hold long time frame positions, and dont care where it is, as long as it's moving).


----------



## prawn_86

Still looking very sick on the weekly chart. 8 out of the last 9 weeks have closed lower, and nothing to give it any sign of helping a turn around soon


----------



## >Apocalypto<

prawn_86 said:


> Still looking very sick on the weekly chart. 8 out of the last 9 weeks have closed lower, and nothing to give it any sign of helping a turn around soon




86 cents starting to look very realistic.


----------



## MARKETWINNER

http://www.cnbc.com/id/100871454

This May Be a Make or Break Week for the Aussie


----------



## MARKETWINNER

http://www.businessinsider.com.au/why-the-australian-dollar-is-getting-slammed-2013-7#share

Why The Australian Dollar Is Getting Smashed Today


----------



## db94

>Apocalypto< said:


> 86 cents starting to look very realistic.




Very very realistic. High chance the RBA will cut interest rates at the next meeting on tuesday. The aud/usd will fall again and i see it going to around 83-80 cents or so in the next few weeks. Its at around 89cents now


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## havaiana

I reckon the market is pretty short and the rate cut all but priced in. I see it as rate cut, take out stops below lows, big sustained short squeeze up for rest of day

In the small chance that they don't cut the rates, I be blind-clicking the buy market button and going to the pub

Edit: more than .25 rate cut, I be going to IGA for a bag of goon

Edit 2: Just hope we don't get rate cut, stops taken out both sides and tiny range for rest of day


----------



## kid hustlr

completely agree with your thoughts on hav. I'm talking from a bond perspective but I think the cut is factored in. if they didn't cut ill be smashing sell as hard as I can, if they do cut ill be looking to fade any spike. If they make 2 cuts ill probably be picking my apple up off my desk and walking out.


----------



## havaiana

kid hustlr said:


> ...If they didn't cut ill be smashing sell as hard as I can.....




Kind have to do this with bonds, if i remember correctly they don't like to retrace much to give you a second chance to get in, but react a bit slower to the news than the currencies/equities?

I have to say I don't miss trading bonds (I should say 'trying' to trade them).

I wrote a post today about a book that might help with some spread trading ideas if you're interested https://www.aussiestockforums.com/forums/showthread.php?t=23221&p=787545#post787545
Book isn't about spreading but some of the global macro ideas have a very similar concept.

Could never get my head around spreading at the time either!


----------



## kid hustlr

You're not alone, I cant get my head around any of it either.

Correct they don't really trade the same way as equities indices + currencies. there are some similarities however.

ill have a look at the book

good luck this afternoon!


----------



## havaiana

havaiana said:


> Just hope we don't get rate cut, stops taken out both sides and tiny range for rest of day




After the range so far i'm really starting to get a feeling this will be the scenario

I reckon we go break low, then break high and end up somewhere in the middle looking like this > until europe


----------



## havaiana

I'm wrong on all accounts, at least my consistency is second to none. Looking like slow grind to the upside without the break down. I didn't have the balls to get in without the break to the downside first in case they were doing the old switcheroo, gets me every time...


----------



## kid hustlr

they cut and the bonds went offered straight away. incredible (and pretty impossible to trade to be honest).


----------



## JLM Financial

The price action after the rate cut was a classic buy-the-rumour-sell-the-news (or in this instance sell-the-rumour-buy-the-news). I'd say the 5-day rally was also due to China import data being way above expectations, from 1% to 10.9%. 

Nonetheless, the Aussie still seems like it's in a strong down-trend.


----------



## danc

long adud.. picture 4 hr.. long at 9100 ish stop 35 below.. will add if rite price action above blue ema.. just my opn ofcourse.. am no expert


----------



## danc

danc said:


> long adud.. picture 4 hr.. long at 9100 ish stop 35 below.. will add if rite price action above blue ema.. just my opn ofcourse.. am no expert




AUZ..UD.. 4 hr udate goes well at mo any how..


----------



## JLM Financial

Sep-taper expectations rising and with analyst forecasts of further RBA cuts, definitely bearish on the Aussie in the longer term.


----------



## danc

AUDUSD.. 4 hr STILL goes well.. have closed position for clear 54.. WheWWW That was lucky..Hey??


----------



## danc

adud 15 min just scalping .. got a few on way down.. just closed for clear 10..


----------



## danc

ADUD.. week chart.. looks hi side to me?? lines last 2 weeks mid pivot points accord to my calcu.. me scalping long side only.. at this point in time.. just my opnion of course.. not that I really know..


----------



## danc

15 min chart long 9148


----------



## danc

danc said:


> 15 min chart long 9148




minus 7


----------



## havaiana

Some heavy selling going on in AUD these last 24 hours. I reckon statement was bullish at best (Compared to expectations), as expected at worst and they've used it to sell into the liquidity

I like a buy after a spike under 9050, if it gets there

I was up for most of US sessions last night and bids seemed very light though


----------



## havaiana

EUR/AUD at an interesting spot too, approaching the 50% level of the last few weeks. If it's a short from here would want to start to turn pretty soon


----------



## havaiana

havaiana said:


> Some heavy selling going on in AUD these last 24 hours. I reckon statement was bullish at best (Compared to expectations), as expected at worst and they've used it to sell into the liquidity
> 
> I like a buy after a spike under 9050, if it gets there
> 
> I was up for most of US sessions last night and bids seemed very light though




Still looking very heavy, I'm not in yet, going to have a little nibble when it breaks the 9035 low though and see how it goes, targeting around 9068, or puking it quick

EDIT didn't have the balls looking too scary at the moment


----------



## havaiana

looking to get long now around 9030 and if that works out will start building a short above 9060


----------



## havaiana

that didn't go to well, not going to build a long now that we approaching 9000, don't want to risk being caught in a break below


----------



## danc

ASUD 15 min long 9001 ..very short term view


----------



## notting

I'd better report this because I can't find the media covering the phenomena.

Unexpected trade deficit put's a halt the rise in the AUD.  The AUD was rising with the RBA sounding less dovish.  However  the 'unexpected trade deficit' has traders betting that another rate cut may be back on the cards.

This is the way it will go and should be accelerated when the tapering starts in Sept.


----------



## havaiana

aud 1 min, kid hustlr, this is one of the ones i spoke about...


----------



## kid hustlr

ta matey,

completely agree with the 'trendline is smoothing' or cupping so to speak, each push down gets weaker and weaker.


----------



## >Apocalypto<

A$ definitely still in a new up trend for me... waiting on it to make a decent entry to re buy. would like to see price keep support at .9320 to reinforce this.


----------



## havaiana

Weird opening this morning, EUR and AUD usually gap the same way, this morning gaps

USD/JPY down
AUD/USD down
EUR/USD up

Will be interesting to see if this continues for the rest of the week.

Thoughts anyone? Buy EUR/USD when bullish, sell AUD/USD when bearish? or fade the EUR/AUD gap?


----------



## AussieMatt

I will be watching price at 95.


----------



## prawn_86

AussieMatt said:


> I will be watching price at 95.




Yes we need a convincing break of 0.95 to see any considerable push higher.


----------



## havaiana

There's market talk of an option barrier at  95 so will see some decent selling in front of it and then maybe some decent stops being triggered if it goes through.

For tonight I'm looking to get long round .945 and sell after 9485 pops, will look to exit for loss if it breaks .945 convincingly and struggles to get back above it


----------



## havaiana

Of course it takes off before I get a fill. That has been the story of my month so far

Might look at trying to get in on a retracement to .9560-5 if itgets there and it looks like it's struggling to make any ground further down


----------



## havaiana

havaiana said:


> Weird opening this morning, EUR and AUD usually gap the same way, this morning gaps
> 
> USD/JPY down
> AUD/USD down
> EUR/USD up
> 
> Will be interesting to see if this continues for the rest of the week.
> 
> Thoughts anyone? Buy EUR/USD when bullish, sell AUD/USD when bearish? or *fade the EUR/AUD gap*?




Also, looks like the bold was the right play.


----------



## havaiana

havaiana said:


> There's market talk of an option barrier at  95 so will see some decent selling in front of it and then maybe some decent stops being triggered if it goes through.
> 
> For tonight I'm looking to get long round .945 and sell after 9485 pops, will look to exit for loss if it breaks .945 convincingly and struggles to get back above it




The stops above 95 last night were taken out with the stops through 9485 (maybe the option expired?), no defence at all it seems. Only got to about 9507-8 even though more than 1,500 contracts were traded in the futures through the break of 95 and retracement back down was decent. It was a lot of buying for someone to absorb considering it was a US holiday and thinner markets.

As it stands now I will have a selling bias today. Chart is of the futures.

I am nervous that the shutdown/debt limit talks seem to have made some progress though and that we might get to the highs at 529. Will probably try to work in a short position if we take out the US highs, or on a retracement after a decent impulse down (looking strong right now as we approach highs again, second guessing...).




edit, strike that selling bias, looks like an agreement is close in the US, could be a fat tail day


----------



## prawn_86

Little pop above 0.95 on the back of the RBA statement. Not many cuts to come for a while it seems. 

Will be interesting to see if it can hold 95 now or if it will slip below, looking decent on the hourly chart


----------



## havaiana

I agree it's looking decent, i will buy if it gets back down to 9500


----------



## havaiana

I've been torn a new one on AUD this morning

Bought at green, then news that US shutdown/debt limit talks are finished for the day hits the wires. Short at reds, then comes news that talks are back on and a deal could be announced within hours. purples are exits/stopouts. I'm a fly's d*ck away from my daily stop after 3 trades


----------



## CanOz

Struth, I've not even got out of bed yet...!


----------



## havaiana

CanOz said:


> Struth, I've not even got out of bed yet...!




I hope it's been worth you while! Come trade AUD, I will call my trades for you to take the other side of


----------



## CanOz

havaiana said:


> I hope it's been worth you while! Come trade AUD, I will call my trades for you to take the other side of




lol...Good idea, i can double up and split the profits with you...just tell me what to do!


----------



## AussieMatt

Nothing much happening with the AUDUSD, a touch entry at 95 would have been ok. but really we are just chopping sideways, I still like the location for a double top but there needs to be some clear direction before it becomes interesting again.


----------



## CanOz

I sort of feel the same way about everything at the moment Matt .


----------



## AussieMatt

I know what you mean, I have taken very few fx trades over the past month, unless something really jumps out at me I will continue to sit on my hands.


----------



## havaiana

AussieMatt said:


> Nothing much happening with the AUDUSD....




That depends how you look at it, in a 240 min bar the market has only had a range of about 40 pips today. Inside that bar or 2 though, it has had a range of about 200 pips as it has moved around 20-40 pips about 7 times.


----------



## havaiana

havaiana said:


> ... I'm a fly's d*ck away from my daily stop after 3 trades




If we break 9550, gonna be back from the brink into the green. Go go go 

Watch this thing tank to 95 again now


----------



## Whiskers

Just catching up on this after a while doing other things... working on bigger picture first, thinking it will go close to .98 before any significant correction back to the low .90's. based on tentative trends and an apparent inverted H&S.


----------



## Whiskers

Humm... above .97, now what's a good entry point for a nice ride down a few cents?

Will it be today, tomorrow...


----------



## kid hustlr

Hav + others anyone have a short term view on this? got CPI in 10 minutes which will most likely throw it around but I think it may be looking slightly toppy here?


----------



## havaiana

kid hustlr said:


> Hav + others anyone have a short term view on this? got CPI in 10 minutes which will most likely throw it around but I think it may be looking slightly toppy here?




I agree and now that CPI has moved it up feels too late for me to go long. Right now looking to short new highs, or short a retracement if we have a lower high with a decent move down. If I luck into a good fill on a turn will hold, if not will just look to scratch/small profit, rinse and repeat.

It will need to grind down a fair bit lower (maybe around 50% retracement level of this CPI move up, only if it has been a grind down though) before i would think about going long again


----------



## notting

AU weakness against the EURO was giving me confidence that this is very short term strength against the USD due to euphoria that the Fed may not taper.
Yet that Vs EURO just got shot out of the sky with inflation a little stronger.
It's in the hands of the Fed.


----------



## havaiana

I just missed that short at the break of new highs was trying to squeeze an extra couple of ticks out of it. Going to try to short on a retrace



notting said:


> AU weakness against the EURO was giving me confidence that this is very short term strength against the USD due to euphoria that the Fed may not taper.
> Yet that Vs EURO just got shot out of the sky with inflation a little stronger.
> It's in the hands of the Fed.




Let me just put in a disclaimer on this post that all my trades are open and closed in a day, so fundamentals are not my strength. If this sounds like BS I'm happy to be told so and why so by anyone so I can educate myself.

As much as I just want to short now and hold, I really get the feeling that this strength is people building a position in anticipation of the end of the interest rate cutting cycle in AUD and rates remaining lower in the US and EUR. Even though there will probably be another cut I still think this could be people building a position early in anticipation of a longer term yield play. For me taper doesn't explain the EUR/AUD weakness since the start of October


----------



## kid hustlr

dead in the water now


----------



## havaiana

kid hustlr said:


> dead in the water now




I missed it, got a fill on the lower high to the tick and ended up scratching for a couple of ticks. ?I reckon it will go through to 640 at least now. If there is no one buying into the stops down there could go down a long way further


----------



## havaiana

jeez, glad i'm not on the other side of this, seems to be picking up momentum


----------



## notting

China banks just announced massive increase in bad debts.

Black swan, black swan.

And of course there is this little issue.




Why do all these economists say 'China needs to grow at 7% in order to keep public stability,"
You'd think breathing would be important too.


----------



## havaiana

notting said:


> China banks just announced massive increase in bad debts.
> ...




Beat me to it, that's all i can find, news come out a while ago though, has taken a while to react to it, can't see any other reason for these moves though


----------



## PinguPingu

Smashed the yen crosses and the rest of Asia as well. 

NAB chucked a bit of a fit.


----------



## notting

havaiana said:


> Beat me to it, that's all i can find, news come out a while ago though, has taken a while to react to it, can't see any other reason for these moves though



The inflation headline seemed high yet in the sober details it was also seen to be negligible.


----------



## Whiskers

An anxious moment back there... almost thought I missed it.

But, thinking it's a minor EW 4 correction before the final push up to my larger "4?" of C2 correction.

Happy to sit on sideline for a bit longer to see how my chart-o-nomics is working out.


----------



## Whiskers

So far so good! 

Pushing to the upside of all indicators.

EW count (my second string confirmation) is still looking ok.


----------



## notting

Apparently the AUD is not supported by fundamental realities.( According to RBA)
Guess that means the market was wrong.
I don't think so, despite the fact I was very short on it.
What moves it is whether tapering is on or off and what the RBA has done with interest rates.
Talk is cheap.
I wonder if the Euro and US traders who are not at their desks will swallow that like the ones trading now have.
Look out below when tapering starts however.


----------



## Whiskers

notting said:


> Apparently the AUD is not supported by fundamental realities.( According to RBA)
> 
> What moves it is whether tapering is on or off and what the RBA has done with interest rates.
> Talk is cheap.




He's trying the Bernanke trick, playing on expectations... before they (RBA) run out of cutting capacity.

If they don't cut in Nov, as it's looking increasingly like they won't, we'll likely see that new high over Dec/Jan killing off the mining 'boom' sooner and contributing to lower household earnings, higher unemployment, further weakening of consumer confidence and probably a bit of a kneejerk back in business confidence... and they'll be forced act in Feb.

Call me cynical, but it seems to me that they are sometimes more concerned with, and probably over estimate the impact of, increasing out export prices (via rate cuts) thus causing imported inflation in China and flowing over to the US, thus causing them more problems.


----------



## havaiana

I read the FOMC changes this morning (or lack thereof) to indicate that taper was still on the table for December or so. I would have expected bigger falls in stocks and bigger gains in USD than occurred. AUD has already made back the FOMC drop and is looking like it might go back the other way.

Looks like we could be in for a bullish session, if we make it back above 9500 and it can stay there, there will be a heap of shorts running for cover above 9515.


----------



## havaiana

havaiana said:


> ... there will be a heap of shorts running for cover above 9515.




Plan for the day

Usually when you have big news like a FOMC there are always plenty of stops above/below where it moved from, but yesterday there was barely any pop at all, looks like there was plenty of selling to soak it all up at and above the previous days highs. We are currently sitting at the bottom end of yesterdays range.

I will try to play the short side this morning looking for a break of yesterdays lows before PPI and China PMI. Of course it could just flop around in the middle of the range until the announcements this arvo in which case I'll just be scratching. 

I'm not big enough to play announcements yet so will sit aside during them and most likely just start to fade whichever way it goes after it looks like momentum is wearing off unless one of the numbers is a big surprise.

My predicted day looks like a break of lows pre news, no big surprise in news, break of highs, fall back within range before the europeans switch on. Now we'll see how badly I can get it wrong!


----------



## havaiana

Wow, that's a big number for AUD PPI, biggest number in a long time. Up move being sold into as we speak though. Sitting on hands until news from China now


----------



## havaiana

China number obviously leaked 5 mins before as usual, move already in progress


----------



## CanOz

havaiana said:


> China number obviously leaked 5 mins before as usual, move already in progress




lol...I wonder if the markets were always this corrupt?

If you've got deep enough pockets, the law just doesn't apply anymore does it?


----------



## ROE

My moto when money is involved assume people don't act in your interest but their so factor in the risk
When parting your money with any type of investment....


----------



## CanOz

Currently watching this AUD_GBP spread at the moment. Its coming into a strong seasonal period but its needs to continue here...


----------



## notting

Ausi has been killing the Euro whilst having a good time on the mattress at 61.8 down on the US.
That's usually a good lead!
Not short for the moment, long might be smart short term, they are not going to taper in December unless there is an employment miracle.
Otherwise everything said till now will be turned upside down and the Fed has not been inconsistent yet!
Strong CPI out of Chinese Republic of Sociopaths will help too.
So long seems like a good bet for the minute.


----------



## >Apocalypto<

Short on AUD after jobs data... looking for this lower high to compete with a move to .9370 with last short term uptrend being broken.

Also short G$ looking for a new lower high to start but that one's not playing ball atm.

Watching Gold for continuation of the short term down trend to continue.. have a Sell stop in.


----------



## notting

You could buy Euro cause market priced in ECB rate lowering tonight which is highly unlikely.


----------



## Whiskers

That might help explain why I'm thinking AUD is trying to go higher despite the RBA effort to talk it down and Aus employment nos.


----------



## notting

Told u ECB wouldn't cut 
At least it retraced enough to get out alive.
Gold has weakened and so have commodities on the basis of stronger US GDP.
However it seems the Germans are so pissed off about the spying and that there is no hesitation to cut now and currency war is becoming real!  It almost looks a little retaliatory against the recent surprise no taper.
I've been focused so much on China I have missed the tensions between Euro and US.
This might end up being good for gold as tapering could be put off again due to US$ strength vs EUR.
How much of US recent good data was being helped by lower $ vs Euro this is the question.


----------



## >Apocalypto<

>Apocalypto< said:


> Short on AUD after jobs data... looking for this lower high to compete with a move to .9370 with last short term uptrend being broken.
> 
> Also short G$ looking for a new lower high to start but that one's not playing ball atm.
> 
> Watching Gold for continuation of the short term down trend to continue.. have a Sell stop in.




AUD$ GBP$ trades all going well now thanks to the news... Gold sell stop order filled going well... 

may look to trim G$ on Monday open. see how Gold acts at the next low..

USDJPY also looking like a good long... want to see it stay above 98.20 thinking of putting in a limit buy there.

wondering if the USD has follow through on this move.


----------



## Whiskers

Whiskers said:


> That might help explain why I'm thinking AUD is trying to go higher despite the RBA effort to talk it down and Aus employment nos.




Damned hard to get me confidence back after not trading forex for a while... and with the RBA trying to talk down the AUD and manipulate macro economic outcomes such as his concern with housing over heating as an excuse for not focusing on his job, monetary policy, lowering the cash rate more, sooner.

But, there are some promising signs for my count, or at least that it may have a bit of strength in her yet, before turning significantly lower.

On the daily there was a Piercing Line bullish turn sign, almost an Engulfing Bullish, followed by a Harami confirming change of trend, then a proper Engulfing Bullish. On the weekly a decent looking Hammer seems to confirm, so far...


----------



## havaiana

Boom! RBA Stevens says AUD too high and intervention has been and will be used in the right circumstances. Now at 2 month lows

Been some serious action developing in the markets these past 2 days


----------



## CanOz

havaiana said:


> Boom! RBA Stevens says AUD too high and intervention has been and will be used in the right circumstances




Finally joining the manipulation club....


----------



## havaiana

CanOz said:


> Finally joining the manipulation club....





I think for the RBA though, the threat will be more useful than the action itself. kudos to him for taking advantage of the fragile position it was in before his comments.

That's a big and quick retrace, starting to look like a good fade now that all the stops are gone. Would love to see it break 9250 first


----------



## CanOz

havaiana said:


> I think for the RBA though, the threat will be more useful than the action itself. kudos to him for taking advantage of the fragile position it was in before his comments.
> 
> That's a big and quick retrace, starting to look like a good fade now that all the stops are gone. Would love to see it break 9250 first




Sure is one way to mess with my AUDUSD/JPYUSD spread...not looking as tempting as it was before...


----------



## skc

CanOz said:


> Sure is one way to mess with my *AUDUSD/JPYUSD spread*...not looking as tempting as it was before...




Isn't that just a directional AUD/JPY trade?


----------



## CanOz

> Isn't that just a directional AUD/JPY trade?




You tell me....The spread is on the bottom.

The spread is the difference between the AUD.USD/JPY.USD price. The AUD.JPY is the difference between the AUD and the JPY.

Does that make it four legged spread?


----------



## havaiana

CanOz said:


> You tell me....The spread is on the bottom.
> 
> The spread is the difference between the AUD.USD/JPY.USD price. The AUD.JPY is the difference between the AUD and the JPY.
> 
> Does that make it four legged spread?




AUD/JPY is the spread of AUD/USD and USD/JPY, maybe the difference is something to do with the JPY/USD being reversed?

I think your spread may by a cross of AUDandJPY/USD. So you are effectively buying USD or selling USD against both AUD and JPY (not a bad way to make bets on Asia/USD).

AUD selling is still relentless at the moment, against USD and EUR. (edit: as soon as i post about something it ends)


----------



## Boggo

Follow up from this...
https://www.aussiestockforums.com/f...t=14459&page=2&p=802741&viewfull=1#post802741

Decision time or could we be on the way to sub 90 ??

(click to expand)


----------



## blue sky

http://clip2net.com/s/6ezYIU
Just testing here, sorry if I'm barging in. I think the AUD has further to fall in the short term.
Tim


----------



## Whiskers

Boggo said:


> Follow up from this...
> https://www.aussiestockforums.com/f...t=14459&page=2&p=802741&viewfull=1#post802741
> 
> Decision time or could we be on the way to sub 90 ??
> 
> (click to expand)




I have two possible larger counts depending on which configuration/combination works out, one a bit different to you, but they both now point to going lower, to the high 80's.  

For me, the last 'talk down' by the RBA seems to have killed off any bullish prospects of revisiting highs in the near term.


----------



## blue sky

Tim


----------



## blue sky

I'm just getting use to this chart system and posting but it looks like I'm getting there. I think the AUDUSD will head up to about the 0.9260-80 area where I see resistance as pointed out on the chart back around the 11th to the 14th of November. Then......we'll see what happens, but looking at the last chart I see the price on the higher timeframe dropping
Tim


----------



## havaiana

Hi blue sky

Just in regards to the statement on your chart "price tends to fall much easier faster than it rises", this is not correct.

This is may be true with stocks/commodities etc, but not with currencies. With currencies one currency is always falling and the other always rising. For example, if they decided to list AUD/USD as USD/AUD it would not make USD weaken easier and faster, it would just move in reverse.

Just as another example, with USD/JPY, the futures contract trades pip for pip with the spot contract, but is actually JPY/USD. JPY doesn't weaken easier or faster on the futures contract and and USD doesn't weaken easier or faster on the spot price, they both move exactly tick for tick (but in reverse).

There is fear when people are in a short position as well as in a long position.


----------



## blue sky

havaiana said:


> Hi blue sky
> 
> Just in regards to the statement on your chart "price tends to fall much easier faster than it rises", this is not correct.
> 
> This is may be true with stocks/commodities etc, but not with currencies. With currencies one currency is always falling and the other always rising. For example, if they decided to list AUD/USD as USD/AUD it would not make USD weaken easier and faster, it would just move in reverse.
> 
> Just as another example, with USD/JPY, the futures contract trades pip for pip with the spot contract, but is actually JPY/USD. JPY doesn't weaken easier or faster on the futures contract and and USD doesn't weaken easier or faster on the spot price, they both move exactly tick for tick (but in reverse).
> 
> There is fear when people are in a short position as well as in a long position.




Alright, I thought about replying to this in a dozen different ways. But I'll just say I should have added "In my opinion" price tends to fall faster than it rises. 13 years of trading has probably scrambled my grey matter a bit and I forget to physically type exactly what I think
Tim


----------



## havaiana

AUD currently being torn a new one, talk is some big hedge funds have been hitting it hard since euro open

30 min chart, will be 10 bars straight without a high broken




Staying awake to do some bottom picking (for a smallish retrace). When/if we break 9100 and get any decent bounce will look to buy the next new lows


----------



## notting

Consider doing it against the Euro.
It has less reasons for strength than the US and has hit the aud even harder.


----------



## havaiana

notting said:


> Consider doing it against the Euro.
> It has less reasons for strength than the US and has hit the aud even harder.





I agree, unfortunately I'm trading the futures, so don't have the EUR/AUD cross. If I was trading through a spot account would definitely be doing it against euro instead, would only be looking at either for a short term bounce though. I reckon there is too much momentum to be fishing for a bottom this week


----------



## havaiana

havaiana said:


> ...When/if we break 9100 and get any decent bounce will look to buy the next new lows




Stayed up for nothing, the setup happened but tried to milk it too much and missed my order by a tick.


----------



## havaiana

Gee US thanksgiving has made the morning markets thin. Never seen the AUD like this at this time except seconds before a news announcement, there were times a 20 lot could have moved the market 10-15 ticks

Will look to get my fade on if we break the lows at 9065


----------



## havaiana

Think I'm finally developing an understanding of market context.

Usually I'd go into today thinking:
No major news today, it's a Friday, US off for the rest of the week. Low volumes, thin markets, no one will be able to take any decent position cause there will be no exit if it goes wrong (and obviously no big longer term players because no volume). Will be a small range, get active and fade everything that moves 5 ticks or more.

Instead this morning I was thinking, market expects small range today (for above reasons). What is some smart ass going to step up and do to take advantage of it. 

Here is the 30 tick move and then 30 tick retrace at the open of the futures (30 ticks is pretty big for AUD during this time, even for a high volume day)


----------



## Boggo

Follow up from my post above
https://www.aussiestockforums.com/f...t=3117&page=56&p=803728&viewfull=1#post803728

Around the target area now and trying to change direction with a potential breakout on the 15 min chart.

Daily chart below - click to expand


----------



## havaiana

Crazy AUD selling just now, looked like intervention! More likely a hedgefund taking the piss though i would say

10,000+ contracts in a couple of minutes versus 50,000 the previous 14 hours!


----------



## havaiana

Drop it like it's hot...

Happened 8 minutes before the US data too


----------



## skyQuake

Apparently RBA's Stevens made comments about the AUD being overvalued, should be closer to 85c.
Also said he prefers weaker AUD to lower rates.

At 12:20am...

Seriously was this an official statement or some hearsay at a boozy Christmas party


----------



## notting

skyQuake said:


> Apparently RBA's Stevens made comments about the AUD being overvalued, should be closer to 85c.
> Also said he prefers weaker AUD to lower rates.
> 
> At 12:20am...
> 
> Seriously was this an official statement or some hearsay at a boozy Christmas party




Yeah we never sleep here in Aus.
The strong move in au/us to the downside also came at a similar time as some November's stronger-than-expected retail sales in the US.
If you look at how the US/EUR reacted at the same time I don't think they were all reacting to Glens sleep talking.


----------



## cogs

And the gap gets filled.


Amazing how much deeper the banks pockets to run against these gap fills now days.

Honestly Stevens has had very little say in the direction of the AUD for quite a while. He/they have tried but without success. This is profit taking.


----------



## >Apocalypto<

89 cents a longer term support point for the AUD goes back to JULY this year with two bounces... currently buying off it now. a break here could see 85-81 tested again.... should make the RBA happy... wonder if they will get involved to get to 85, as they would like.

AUD$ looks extremely bearish on the weekly...


----------



## cogs

Yep, agree south is the direction, albeit the action has been a little weird.

Might be a nice short coming up if this fade follows through.



IMO the action has been made to look like good bullish setups with many retail discussion still talking about going long on bottoming. I think we may have some ranging coming up with .87 and .85 coming up. I'm trading both directions.


----------



## cogs

Hmm no fade, and still a downward push. Bit of a pig for any large moves.


----------



## nulla nulla

skyQuake said:


> Apparently RBA's Stevens made comments about the AUD being overvalued, should be closer to 85c.
> Also said he prefers weaker AUD to lower rates.
> 
> At 12:20am...
> 
> Seriously was this an official statement or some hearsay at a boozy Christmas party




The market is calling it "Jawboning" the Aud$ down.



>Apocalypto< said:


> 89 cents a longer term support point for the AUD goes back to JULY this year with two bounces... currently buying off it now. a break here could see 85-81 tested again.... should make the RBA happy... wonder if they will get involved to get to 85, as they would like.
> 
> AUD$ looks extremely bearish on the weekly...




With Joe Hockey talking down our economy, Glenn Stevens "Jawboning" our dollar and the ratings agencies reviewing our AAA rating, it shouldn't be too long before we hit their target of $0.85. Whether or not it stays there is another question. There is a suggestion that the market is looking through all the spin and still seeing strength in our economy and aud$.


----------



## forextrader168

*AUDUSD Daily Outlook for 20th December , 2013 (Friday) - Did you miss out the short?*

Did you miss out the short for Aussie?
Market Might give us another chance to join the trend to find new lows





*Outlook Trade opportunity

Our Short limit placed at 0.89050 - for around 30pips partial tp, and let market play down to new lows.  Lets hope we get filled*

To get more understanding of my analysis you can visit my twitter / blog

Cheers!

Howard 
(#forex_trader168)


----------



## forextrader168

*Re: AUDUSD Daily Outlook for 20th December , 2013 (Friday) - Did you miss out the sho*

Unfortunately our Friday trade setup for the AUDUSD has hit our stop loss. However my other trade setups for EURUSD and USDJPY gained approx 100pips on friday.

For today AUDUSD
*Outlook Trade opportunity
For Today i would buy dips at around the daily pivot area, (0.890) Looking for a 1:1 reward.  
Its holiday season so not much action is expected.
We will also setup a short limit order at the 0.89594-  0.90 area 
Risk Level - Medium*



Thanks
Howard
(#Forex_Trader168)




forextrader168 said:


> Did you miss out the short for Aussie?
> Market Might give us another chance to join the trend to find new lows
> 
> View attachment 55886
> View attachment 55887
> 
> 
> *Outlook Trade opportunity
> 
> Our Short limit placed at 0.89050 - for around 30pips partial tp, and let market play down to new lows.  Lets hope we get filled*
> 
> To get more understanding of my analysis you can visit my twitter / blog
> 
> Cheers!
> 
> Howard
> (#forex_trader168)


----------



## MARKETWINNER

Please see following links on AUD.

http://www.bloomberg.com/video/look-to-short-aussie-for-2014-fxprimus-d2L_S6g7SAm2L1efq_IVYQ.html

Look to `Short' Aussie for 2014: FXPrimus

http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2013-...iggest-yearly-drop-since-08-on-fed-taper.html

Aussie Dollar Set for Biggest Yearly Drop Since ’08 on Fed Taper

http://www.bloomberg.com/video/aust...clearly-downwards-iJ5wGgQJQu~xDiMYf19Osg.html

Australian Dollar Long-Term Trend Clearly Downwards.

My ideas are not a recommendation to either buy or sell any security, commodity or currency. Please do your own research prior to making any investment decisions. Please note that I do not endorse or take responsibility for material in the above hyper-linked sites.


----------



## >Apocalypto<

MARKETWINNER said:


> Please see following links on AUD.
> 
> http://www.bloomberg.com/video/look-to-short-aussie-for-2014-fxprimus-d2L_S6g7SAm2L1efq_IVYQ.html
> 
> Look to `Short' Aussie for 2014: FXPrimus
> 
> http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2013-...iggest-yearly-drop-since-08-on-fed-taper.html
> 
> Aussie Dollar Set for Biggest Yearly Drop Since ’08 on Fed Taper
> 
> http://www.bloomberg.com/video/aust...clearly-downwards-iJ5wGgQJQu~xDiMYf19Osg.html
> 
> Australian Dollar Long-Term Trend Clearly Downwards.
> 
> My ideas are not a recommendation to either buy or sell any security, commodity or currency. Please do your own research prior to making any investment decisions. Please note that I do not endorse or take responsibility for material in the above hyper-linked sites.




new 3 touch support 8850.... looks like it's putting in a short term base.


----------



## forextrader168

*Re: AUDUSD Daily Outlook for 20th December , 2013 (Friday) - Did you miss out the sho*



AUDUSD - Bigger Supply and Demand area to watch out for
Happy new year
I would like to share my analysis from the 1st of January 2014

AUDUSD - Bigger Supply and Demand area to watch out for
http://daily-forex-trader.blogspot.com.au/2014/01/audusd-bigger-supply-and-demand-area-to.html

We should see a good ride down (well the odds are stacked in favour more to the downside )

Cheers



forextrader168 said:


> Unfortunately our Friday trade setup for the AUDUSD has hit our stop loss. However my other trade setups for EURUSD and USDJPY gained approx 100pips on friday.
> 
> For today AUDUSD
> *Outlook Trade opportunity
> For Today i would buy dips at around the daily pivot area, (0.890) Looking for a 1:1 reward.
> Its holiday season so not much action is expected.
> We will also setup a short limit order at the 0.89594-  0.90 area
> Risk Level - Medium*
> View attachment 55961
> 
> 
> Thanks
> Howard
> (#Forex_Trader168)


----------



## MARKETWINNER

Both NZD and AUD could go down further against USD due to gradual tapering and other factors. This is good for export sector in this region. I consider two of the overvalued currencies in the world along with CAD.

My ideas are not a recommendation to either buy or sell any security, commodity or currency. Please do your own research prior to making any investment decisions.


----------



## Trembling Hand

Gee I wish the AUD will follow our commonwealth friends,


----------



## prawn_86

Trembling Hand said:


> Gee I wish the AUD will follow our commonwealth friends,




Canada is in a World of hurt at the moment. Virtually no growth, and their reserve bank saying they might even cut rates further.

It is a sign of what is to come for Aus in a few years IMO once there is no real industry left in Aus and little demand for commodities


----------



## Boggo

Potential target areas if this daily follows through.

(click to expand)


----------



## >Apocalypto<

Boggo said:


> Potential target areas if this daily follows through.
> 
> (click to expand)




agree Bogo,

normally I wouldn't trade another pair other than the GJ but this weekly short set up looks to good to pass up. 

I am short stop at .9065 looking for 83ish


----------



## Froggywar

I have made a foolish mistake buying AUD/USD when it was 0.90 28 as with this picture





Anyone think I should pull out or just let it stay and wait with the hopes the market pics up to were I can sell it at 0.90 28.

If I was to pull out when should I?


----------



## Hodgie

Froggywar said:


> I have made a foolish mistake buying AUD/USD when it was 0.90 28 as with this picture
> 
> View attachment 56322
> 
> 
> 
> Anyone think I should pull out or just let it stay and wait with the hopes the market pics up to were I can sell it at 0.90 28.
> 
> If I was to pull out when should I?




You asking for quite specific advice here. Forum rules don't allow advice such as this to be provided.


----------



## cynic

Hodgie said:


> You asking for quite specific advice here. Forum rules don't allow advice such as this to be provided.




+1

Posters sometimes circumvent this rule by asking the question in a hypothetical context (i.e hypothetically speaking, if you were to find yourself in this situation, what might you choose to do to manage it?).


----------



## MARKETWINNER

It is very hard to predict in the short run. Some types of volatility could be there. As I said before I am bearish on NZD and AUD. I am bullish on the USD.

Please do not take this as an investment advice. Please do your home work and stay with your own successful strategy.

- - - Updated - - -



Hodgie said:


> You asking for quite specific advice here. Forum rules don't allow advice such as this to be provided.




I agree with you.


----------



## TulipFX

Underlying USD strength as the market prices in US Fed cutting back on its stimulus package.


----------



## cogs

> I have made a foolish mistake buying AUD/USD when it was 0.90 28 as with this picture
> 
> Click image for larger version.  Name: AUDUSD.png  Views: 8  Size: 5.3 KB  ID: 56322
> 
> 
> Anyone think I should pull out or just let it stay and wait with the hopes the market pics up to were I can sell it at 0.90 28.
> 
> If I was to pull out when should I?




Employment figures coming out at 11AM today.


----------



## Trembling Hand

Froggywar said:


> I have made a foolish mistake buying AUD/USD when it was 0.90 28 as with this picture
> 
> View attachment 56322
> 
> 
> 
> Anyone think I should pull out or just let it stay and wait with the hopes the market pics up to were I can sell it at 0.90 28.
> 
> If I was to pull out when should I?




I wonder what you did? it was actually in the green last night for a while. You would be in a world of pain now though?


----------



## TheUnknown

What is the cheapest and best way to short the AUD. My little prediction is 80cents is near. anyone know best way?


----------



## >Apocalypto<

TheUnknown said:


> What is the cheapest and best way to short the AUD. My little prediction is 80cents is near. anyone know best way?




imo retail FX broker... best spreads 0-low coms


----------



## havaiana

TheUnknown said:


> What is the cheapest and best way to short the AUD. My little prediction is 80cents is near. anyone know best way?




If you want to do a longer term trade and not have to worry about managing it, you could consider buying a put option. Or with a target of 80 could even use some sort a strike option or binary


----------



## CanOz

TheUnknown said:


> My little prediction is 80cents is near.




This is like, the most talked about level in currencies at the moment....everyone is saying 80 cents.


----------



## kid hustlr

CanOz said:


> This is like, the most talked about level in currencies at the moment....everyone is saying 80 cents.




makes me want to buy it now


----------



## CanOz

kid hustlr said:


> makes me want to buy it now




Well i did hear that just after Christmas, typical New Years predictions and all...Now that its broken everyone else is jumping on the bandwagon...


----------



## >Apocalypto<

CanOz said:


> Well i did hear that just after Christmas, typical New Years predictions and all...Now that its broken everyone else is jumping on the bandwagon...




nothing like a few solid moves to get the crowd going.


----------



## Boggo

Daily chart follow up from previous post...
https://www.aussiestockforums.com/f...t=3117&page=57&p=809520&viewfull=1#post809520

First target reached.
(click to expand)


----------



## forextrader168

*AUDUSD Forecast for the week 20th January, 2014*


*Daily Chart*



We have broken a main support last week after rejecting the monthly pivot level
A retest of which now as resistance would be a good entry for trend continuation down
Forecast support is at the 127.2fib ext which also is the Monthly S2 pivot at 0.862




*Hourly Chart* 

We are hoping the market would retrace to around the 50% (127.2ex) or 61.8 (161.8ex) so we could go short

*Outlook Trade opportunity*
Trade opportunity to go short and follow the trend is shown on the H1 Chart


Risk Level LOW

Tips -


----------



## forextrader168

For those who followed my analysis trade setup should have got close to 200pips out of this move down

I have a scalp trade coming up (for today only)

Cheers




forextrader168 said:


> *AUDUSD Forecast for the week 20th January, 2014*
> 
> 
> *Daily Chart*
> 
> 
> 
> We have broken a main support last week after rejecting the monthly pivot level
> A retest of which now as resistance would be a good entry for trend continuation down
> Forecast support is at the 127.2fib ext which also is the Monthly S2 pivot at 0.862
> 
> 
> 
> 
> *Hourly Chart*
> 
> We are hoping the market would retrace to around the 50% (127.2ex) or 61.8 (161.8ex) so we could go short
> 
> *Outlook Trade opportunity*
> Trade opportunity to go short and follow the trend is shown on the H1 Chart
> 
> 
> Risk Level LOW
> 
> Tips -


----------



## Koeln

TheUnknown said:


> What is the cheapest and best way to short the AUD. My little prediction is 80cents is near. anyone know best way?




I use an ETF, which is quite easy. Lookup symbol USD on ASX. (in eTrade or comsec)
Most likley there are plenty of others as well...


----------



## Boggo

>Apocalypto< said:


> I am short stop at .9065 looking for 83ish




Still heading the towards your target, ~85 next area of attraction.

Follow up from here...
https://www.aussiestockforums.com/f...t=3117&page=57&p=809520&viewfull=1#post809520
and here...
https://www.aussiestockforums.com/f...t=3117&page=58&p=810205&viewfull=1#post810205

(click to expand)


----------



## >Apocalypto<

Boggo said:


> Still heading the towards your target, ~85 next area of attraction.
> 
> Follow up from here...
> https://www.aussiestockforums.com/f...t=3117&page=57&p=809520&viewfull=1#post809520
> and here...
> https://www.aussiestockforums.com/f...t=3117&page=58&p=810205&viewfull=1#post810205
> 
> (click to expand)




Cut that trade a while ago Boggo, just sticking to my GJ 1hour plan.


----------



## peter2

Interesting observations based on Canoz's post #1880 in the Transition to Futures trading thread. 
I liked the post as it outlines one of my fav FX patterns. It's easy to set an alert when price hits the previous day's high and low on a number of markets. 

Rejection at the prev H/L doesn't happen everyday, but it happens often enough for a prepared trader to take advantage of it. 

Here is a chart of the AUDUSD showing this rejection pattern over the past five trading days. 
Its interesting to me that 4/6 setups occurred during the lower volume Asian session.


----------



## aviper4u

anyone seen the recent highs despite mixed figures.

i think might be time a for a reversal if usd bear trends eases and usd firms up though the meeting minutes on Tuesday probably wont support this?

what do you guy reckon?


----------



## CanOz

Yeah, watch us blow the stops on the topside and then squeeze out the longs as we sell off all day!

If we take out .9050 then things are going to get interesting...it just WHEN it gets taken out that we've got to be careful.


----------



## MARKETWINNER

We could see major shift in currency market during next 12 months to 18 months. Markets, Stocks, commodity and currencies never stay in the same place. There is a possibility even AUD could go to 60c during next 36 months. NZD could go to 50c or below against USD. At the moment NZD has some strength. This is the best time to short number one overvalued NZD as it is more vulnerable than any other currency. We should not forget just like stock and commodity cycles, currency market too has cycle. In a next cycle current bull currencies such as NZD, AUD and CAD could become bear currencies and current laggards in the currency market including USD could become bull currencies. I still maintain my bearish opinion on NZD, AUD and CAD etc. If we see any resistance for currencies such as NZD and AUD in 2014 this could be last year for them. They could drop dramatically in 2015. There are lot of adjustments in financial and credit world in 2014.

My ideas are not a recommendation to either buy or sell any security, commodity or currency. Please do your own research prior to making any investment decisions.


----------



## PipSafe

*Daily Technical Analysis by PipSafe*

AUD/USD was in a strong and consistent downtrend during the recent months that sellers were successful in obtaining the lowest price of 0.86581. price with reaching to the supportive level which is shown in the picture below ( made of 2 bottom prices) has stopped from more descend( sellers used this level to exit their trades) and with formation of a bottom price in daily time frame has prepared a field for ascending of price.

With formation of Morning Star(with 2 stars) candlestick pattern in weekly time frame, there is a warning for Vulnerability of downtrend.Currently in weekly and daily time frames price is above 5-day moving average that warns about the potential of ascending of price during long period of time.RSI indicator in daily timeframe (also Weekly Time Frame) is in saturation sell area and also it is in divergence mode with the price chart that warns the potential for ascending of the price during the next candles.The first important warning for ascending of the price according to the technical signs is breaking of the resistance level 0.90481.


----------



## havaiana

Jeez, she's thin out there this morning. Thinner than I've seen in a long long time, definitely some nerves at the moment. I'm expecting some higher than usual volume today and a decent range whether it be a trend day or not. Looks like it will be pretty erratic though.


----------



## Frank D

*AUD Primary & Monthly cycles*

Primary cycles suggests the AUD will continue down into the 2014 lows, as part of the 
break-n-extend pattern from the 2013 yearly lows (Dilernia Principle)  .8560 / .8351

Monthly cycles in February also playing their part, as it forms resistance.

As long as it remains below the MARCH 50% level @ .8918, the trend bias is down.

if it breaks above the 5-day highs, then it's retesting the Quarterly 50% @ 9092, but with an overall 
Primary trend that's heading lower.


----------



## havaiana

:sleeping: was expecting so much more of the morning. If it makes a new high above and 8917 soon and doesn't pop I'm going short, not really expecting too much now either direction until early Europe


----------



## CanOz

havaiana said:


> :sleeping: was expecting so much more of the morning. If it makes a new high above and 8917 soon and doesn't pop I'm going short, not really expecting too much now either direction until early Europe




Will post some stuff up on open range breakouts for discussion Hav, if you're interested...


----------



## CanOz

Been testing another open range breakout strategy, not to trade but to find out what typically works and what doesn't. An open range breakout strategy typically fails miserably on its own without a filter. As shown here....


----------



## havaiana

CanOz said:


> Been testing another open range breakout strategy, not to trade but to find out what typically works and what doesn't. An open range breakout strategy typically fails miserably on its own without a filter. As shown here....




Definitely interested Can. In my time-frame Oz/Asia it fails even more miserably if you take out all the times the breakouts were due to RBA or Chinese data when you cannot realistically get a fill anywhere near where price breaks out.

Although I suspect this could change in the not so distant future if some serious stuff goes down in China. I'm not banking on it though



havaiana said:


> .... If it makes a new high above and 8917 soon and doesn't pop I'm going short, not really expecting too much now either direction until early Europe




 Got shaken out on that last spike up and didn't get a fill on the re-entry


----------



## CanOz

So a couple of things we'll add to this strategy. A filter like Crabel/Williams had to only look for breakouts when the prior session has seen the smallest range in the last 'n' days. This way we have a volatility filter using the assumption that greater volatility follows less volatility. The purpose of this exercise is not to have an automated strategy, but to have a play to use when the right conditions are apparent. Instead of just blindly using an open range as a trade play, we'll be able to have some data to back it up so we know when we should be on the lookout for an open range play.

I had previously tested an open range breakout strategy on the DAX, with a filter. It looked ok and suggested that taking open range breakouts on days that gapped open where the best plays. I'm trying to apply that concept to currency futures and GC/CL. However, this time we'll look at volatility contractions prior to the breakout play.


----------



## havaiana

CanOz said:


> So a couple of things we'll add to this strategy. A filter like Crabel...




Crabel's stuff is the basis of what I've been using when buying volatility through currency options. Haven't done it enough yet to know how successful it is, but so far so good over a very small sample.

Sometimes big market moving announcements (like non farm payrolls, or say an rba rate decision that is about 50:50) can cause the couple of days beforehand to be small range days as no one wants to take the risk of a big position going into it. I don't usually buy the volatility in these types of cases as it's the known future volatility causing the small range rather than the small range causing the future volatility.

edit: just to add in case anyone is wondering why this matters, the known volatility makes the options more expensive.


----------



## CanOz

havaiana said:


> Crabel's stuff is the basis of what I've been using when buying volatility through currency options. Haven't done it enough yet to know how successful it is, but so far so good over a very small sample.
> 
> Sometimes big market moving announcements (like non farm payrolls, or say an rba rate decision that is about 50:50) can cause the couple of days beforehand to be small range days as no one wants to take the risk of a big position going into it. I don't usually buy the volatility in these types of cases as it's the known future volatility causing the small range rather than the small range causing the future volatility.




Yeah great point Hav, and this can skew the trades. I don't even consider the US session an option for an ORB, there's plenty of test results around showing how bad it does as a play since they changed the major announcements times.


----------



## havaiana

looks like there is a bit of a battle going on to defend 8950 this morning, maybe some option interest. I'm taking heat on a short, hoping it cracks soon


----------



## qldfrog

anyone understanding why the AUD is again surging after news which are  in my view are quite bad for its future???
what do I miss: lower agricultural export lower Iron ore and coal export (in $ value at least)
and a moribond economy?


----------



## CanOz

qldfrog said:


> anyone understanding why the AUD is again surging after news which are  in my view are quite bad for its future???
> what do I miss: lower agricultural export lower Iron ore and coal export (in $ value at least)
> and a moribond economy?




Did you miss the memo on the china stimulus possibility?


----------



## qldfrog

CanOz said:


> Did you miss the memo on the china stimulus possibility?




I did not but any stimulus in china if/when it comes will not benefit in my opinion mineral export:
yes for german/us/japanese technology but probably negative for us (ie australia)
China will want to:
reduce pollution, increase self consumption;
not dirty coal, more ghost towns or extra RE bubble.
I expect they will actually crack down on dirty factories: do more with less ..
how could that benefit Oz??? there is a limit as to the billions corrupted chineses can hide away O/S as Sydney appartments...
Am I thinking too much? it seems by many aspect the market is a very dumb beast ..


----------



## notting

qldfrog said:


> how could that benefit Oz??? there is a limit as to the billions corrupted chineses can hide away O/S as Sydney appartments...



Once they have bought us all out and moved in they are then all going to go shopping at David Jones and Myer. This is countering the slow down in the mining boom.


----------



## qldfrog

notting said:


> Once they have bought us all out and moved in they are then all going to go shopping at David Jones and Myer. This is countering the mining boom.




the sad bit is this is destroying australia's future slowly but surely...


----------



## notting

qldfrog said:


> the sad bit is this is destroying australia's future slowly but surely...




True.  
Ausi is gone!  
You wait till they start voting themselves into parliament.

This was an oeur d'oeuvres -

http://melbournecitycouncil.blogspot.com.au/2007/07/million-dollar-entourage-john-sos-cost.html

Every one loved him!

This particular article doesn't mention the secret deals So gave to Chinese interests and involvement in blocking figures who new about the Chinese and were trying to raise awareness of the horrors being committed in China and it's occupation and genocide in surrounding countries.


----------



## CanOz

qldfrog said:


> Am I thinking too much? it seems by many aspect the market is a very dumb beast ..




As long as the AUD has some correlation on and off to the China story then i'd expect a reaction along with it. 

I agree that it doesn't make sense...


----------



## Smurf1976

So far as China's imports of Australian energy commodities are concerned and taking a long term (20 year) view, a few points.

Any developed economy needs a source of energy, and practically all economic activity requires energy in some form. This is a given. So long as China's GDP remains stable or growing, they're going to need some way of powering it.

There's a few options, eg locally we have WA and the NT heavily reliant on gas, we have Qld, NSW and Vic heavily reliant on coal and there's Tasmania with it's hydro power. And that's just for electricity, heat etc. There's also transport, primarily fuelled by oil in most places (including all Australian states and most countries overseas with very few exceptions).

A few facts and figures about China's energy use at present:

18% from oil, of which 10.5% is imported oil and 7.5% is domestically produced oil (production of which is fairly flat). China's proven oil reserves are equivalent to 16 years' of current domestic production.

4% from gas, of which 1% is imported gas and 3% is domestic gas. China's gas reserves are equivalent to 32 years of current domestic production.

6% from hydro, which represents about a quarter of the hydro-electric potential in China (that is, three quarters of it is undeveloped).

1% from nuclear, wind, solar etc.

71% from coal.

Now factor in that various forecasts suggest a doubling of China's energy consumption over the next 20 years. Refer attached image (source = Energy Information Administration (US Government)).

It's hard to see how China could actually achieve such growth without an "all of the above" strategy. More gas, much of it imported. More oil, most of it imported. More hydro to the extent that they can build the dams quickly enough. More nuclear. And yes, most likely more coal as well. Take coal out of the picture and you'd need absolutely ridiculous levels of growth in LNG (gas), nuclear and hydro which probably aren't achievable in practice.

So whilst I can see short term fluctuations, unless China's economy falls in a heap they're going to need more of everything so far as energy is concerned. Unless they can ramp up domestic coal production (maybe they can? They already produce about 50% of world output) then that's good news for Australian exports of LNG certainly, uranium probably and possibly coal too. 

It's not so good for the environment of course, but this is the AUD thread not the climate change thread.


----------



## Bill M

I bought the ETF USD today on the strength of the AUD. I may have jumped the gun a bit as I believe it could head towards .926 area but I have seen this scenario play out many times before. That is, it takes a run up then out of the blue it makes a sudden reversal.

It is gambling for me, I am gambling it will make a reversal at around that .92 level then it could head towards that .85 level at which point I will sell. Of course this is all speculation and it could just as easily bust through that .926 level and keep on going to .95, however my bet is on.


----------



## qldfrog

did the same bet a while back at 1AUD=1.06USD  and on this experience added a more last month at 0.91 but was probably too early..
wait and see..I lost my 6 month bet on put option for a crash of asx 200 this month so do not take my view as a recommendation


----------



## Valued

I am long AUD/USD. Today worked out pretty well. I am holding for a shot at 0.95+. It's at about 92.5 now so looking good. I opened at 90.2 and added more at 90.3 on a pull back. I am looking for another opportunity to add more as well. Even if we got to 0.95 I would still hold a bit, make sure there is a stop in place to protect profits, and hopefully get a shot in at parity. If we get to parity I would have added a lot more on pull backs along the way.


----------



## qldfrog

Valued said:


> I am long AUD/USD. Today worked out pretty well. I am holding for a shot at 0.95+. It's at about 92.5 now so looking good. I opened at 90.2 and added more at 90.3 on a pull back. I am looking for another opportunity to add more as well. Even if we got to 0.95 I would still hold a bit, make sure there is a stop in place to protect profits, and hopefully get a shot in at parity. If we get to parity I would have added a lot more on pull backs along the way.



any reasoning behind being long on aud?
iron ore and met. coal are going to boom, we are going to sell???(flats in sydney to China?)
or just the fact we have less debt than us/europe?
when I go shopping at woolworth, even my canned corn comes from thailand and the ham from o/s, even paper
When is the last time i could buy something made in Australia?
or just following trends?


----------



## Valued

qldfrog said:


> any reasoning behind being long on aud?
> iron ore and met. coal are going to boom, we are going to sell???(flats in sydney to China?)
> or just the fact we have less debt than us/europe?
> when I go shopping at woolworth, even my canned corn comes from thailand and the ham from o/s, even paper
> When is the last time i could buy something made in Australia?
> or just following trends?




Just technical reasons. I don't have any fundamental reasons. I don't understand enough about economics to do that. It just looked like it was going to breakout on the chart from a purely technical standpoint.


----------



## qldfrog

Valued said:


> Just technical reasons. I don't have any fundamental reasons. I don't understand enough about economics to do that. It just looked like it was going to breakout on the chart from a purely technical standpoint.




fair.trying to apply value or some economic sense in the current market seems quite futile
forex or share market too


----------



## PipSafe

As it was mentioned in the previous technical analysis of this currency pair dated 2014.02.25, according to the formed signs, there was a potential for ascending of price which finally happened.Buyers were successful in achieving the highest price of 0.93006.Right now in daily and H4 time frames, the price is under 5-day moving average that shows the descending trend and warns about more descending.Price stopped by reaching to the important resistance level of 0.93000 and after trying to break this resistance level twice that was unsuccessful, the price created a top price under that level.

Currently in daily time frame with formation of Shooting Star(also doji) candlestick pattern (the failure of buyers in reaching to the lower prices) price has been stopped from more ascending and there is a possibility of formation of a top price and finally descending of the price.As it is obvious in the picture below, there is an AB=CD harmonic pattern between the bottom price of 0.86595 and the top price of 0.93006 with ideal ratios of 38.2 to 224.2 that warns about descending of price from the D point of this pattern. RSI indicator is in saturation buy area and confirms the current top price, also wars about formation of a top price. Generally until the top price of 0.93006 is preserved, price has the potential of descending.


----------



## damdin

Generally is AUD out of woods, yet? Now I have a long term ascending view on this one.


----------



## Wysiwyg

PipSafe said:


> there is a possibility of formation of a top price and finally descending of the price.



I will support your view with another perspective and that being what appears (careful word choice) to be a broadening triangle (top) which is generally viewed as a bearish top. We shall see.


----------



## Valued

Wysiwyg said:


> I will support your view with another perspective and that being what appears (careful word choice) to be a broadening triangle (top) which is generally viewed as a bearish top. We shall see.
> 
> View attachment 57478




OR it could be a market so strong that the reaction is horozontal and the latest up move is a move breaking out of the trading zone... depends how you look at it. I still hold AUD/USD long and it's doing fine so far. I think it would be sub-optimal to exit an already profitable and open position right now. I have tightened up my stop though to 0.92 since there is a bearish view there but I tend to be bullish. The stop just protects my profits but I will be giving back 91 pips if it doesn't go my way. The potential upside is quite large if it moves towards parity though, which is the reason why I continue to hold.


----------



## Frank D

*AUD/USD Primary & Monthly cycles*

My view was that the AUD would continue lower, as part of the Dilernia Principle with the 
Primary cycles.However, it has done the opposite, and has broken out within the Monthly cycles in the last
 month of the Quarter, which suggests the trend will continue higher in the 2nd Quarter.

This suggests that the trend will continue up into the April highs, and into the 2014 Yearly 50% level @ .9449.


http://goldcoppersilver.blogspot.com.au/2014/04/gold-silver-7th-april-2014-monthly.html

However, my view is that is will follow a similar pattern as GOLD (click the above link)

The current price action is following a retest pattern, where it retests last year's breakout that often aligns 
with the Yearly 50% level. Once that completes, my view is that the AUD will resumes its downward trend
 towards the 2014 lows.


----------



## Wysiwyg

Valued said:


> OR it could be a market so strong that the reaction is horozontal and the latest up move is a move breaking out of the trading zone... depends how you look at it.
> 
> The potential upside is quite large if it moves towards parity though, which is the reason why I continue to hold.



As it turned out your perspective was correct and price pushed higher.


----------



## qldfrog

the speed of teh aud rise in the last day was amazing, but I remain long USD at medium term, so I see that as an opportunity to load at 0.935/0.95
based on my past record, this is p[robably wrong


----------



## Valued

Yea, good day for me since I still hold. I was considering adding more when it was in the trading range after the rise but didn't. I have been very careful with this position since it's actually very large right now compared to my capital. Stops are remaining tight since it's starting to get to be a lot of money for me. That's the problem when you open up a large position initially due to the low risk (since I opened very close to where my stop would be) and then now it's made such a large up move it's a significant amount of money in real terms. I am still in this for the hopes of hitting 0.95 - 96, then assessing whether we can see a further move towards parity.


----------



## PipSafe

AUD/USD during the recent week was in a Down trend that sellers were successful in achieving the lowest price of 0.92273. Currently in daily time frame price with touching the ascending trend line (made of 4 price levels) and forming a bottom price has prepared a field for ascending. (sellers used this level to leave their trades).Right now price in short time frames such as H4 and H1 is above 5-day moving average and warns about price increase in short period of time.

As it is obvious in the picture below, between the top price of 0.94600 and bottom price of 0.92273 there is AB=CD harmonic pattern with ratios of 38.2% and 224% that warns the potential of ascending from the D point of this pattern.Stoch indication in Daily and H4 time frame is in saturation sell area and with the next cycle confirms the 5th point of ascending trend line and warns about ascending during the next candles. Generally according to the current situation, until the bottom price of 0.92273 is preserved, price has the potential for reformation of downtrend.


----------



## Valued

Hmm well the going long on AUD/USD was fun while it lasted. I have turned around and gone short now. It's actually a little annoying since news reports are out saying the dollar is going to go test parity and CBA says it will go up. I never really cared about what they thought (otherwise I wouldn't have been long on the last up move) but at the same time I always felt a little uncomfortable being long then turning around to go short. 

I have started off small though and up a little already. It's gone down. Here is to hoping it doesn't shoot back up for another hammer. I think it's solid though. AUD futures looked bearish and USD futures had a nice run up and look bullish. If they are anything to go by, a short term long on AUD/USD should work out nicely... especially once I move my stop to break even ASAP! 

The news disagrees with me though, and I have been wrong before. It's probably a little uncertain for most people but I felt that the stop loss didn't have to be placed too far above so it's a very nice risk reward ratio. Anyone who is signed up for The Chartist know if Radge has anything out on the AUD/USD? I know you can't reveal if he is bullish/bearish on it but if he has something up on it I might pay the $30 to take a look.


----------



## qldfrog

what a fall/crash!!! back as I write to 92.5c and going


----------



## AussieMatt

AUDUSD Still just chopping sideways but becoming more interesting..


----------



## Stratanu

AUDUSD remains crucially poised at key support at .9336/22 – the 55-day average and mid-June low. Although this is holding for now, a break would see a top complete, as well as a confirmed break of the uptrend, clearing the way for further weakness to .9258, then what I view as more important support at .9230/.9202. Failure to hold this latter area would mark the completion of a much larger and more significant top, warning of a resumption of the medium-term bear trend. Above .9383 is needed to ease the immediate downside bias for .9413/18. Extension through .9450 is needed to reassert an upward bias for a move back to .9506, ahead of .9584 ‒ the 38.2% retracement of the entire 2011/2014 downtrend.
*Trade Idea*: Long, stop/reverse below .9320, for.9580.


----------



## Stratanu

AUDUSD remains poised at key support at .9337/22 – the 55- day average and mid-June low. Although this is holding for now, a break below it would see a top complete, as well as a confirmed break of the uptrend, clearing the way for further weakness to .9258, then what I view as more important support at .9230/.9202. Failure to hold this latter area would mark the completion of a much larger and more significant top, warning of a resumption of the medium-term bear trend. Resistance is seen at .9396, then .9413/18. Extension through .9450 is needed to reassert an upward bias for a move back to .9506, ahead of .9584 ‒ the 38.2% retracement of the entire 2011/2014 downtrend.
*Trade Idea*: Long, stop/reverse below .9320, for.9580.


----------



## notting

Reserve bank a little baffled as to strength of ausi $.

A reason - 

http://www.theaustralian.com.au/business/latest/australias-siv-scheme-a-target-for-money-laundering/story-e6frg90f-1226983394627


----------



## PipSafe

As it was mentioned in the previous technical analysis of AUD/USD pair dated 2014.04.29, according to the formed signs, there was a potential for ascending of price which finally happened .Buyers were successful in reaching to the highest price of 0.95000.In weekly time frame of this currency pair there is no clear reason for ascending of the price and the price by being under the 5-day moving average and also descending cycle of Stoch indicator warns more descending of next candles .According to the formed price movements, RSI indicator is in saturation buy area and in divergence mode with the price chart that confirms the top price of 0.95000 and warns about changing price direction.
Currently one of the important warnings for starting the price downfall is breaking the support level of 0.93281 in daily time frame because As it is obvious in the picture below, there is an AB=CD harmonic pattern between the top price of 0.94551 and the bottom price of 0.933281 with  ratios of 50 to 161.8 that warns about ascending of price from the D point of this pattern.

*Technical Analysis of AUD/USD dated 2014.07.16*


----------



## bathuu

I was reading http://www.news.com.au/finance/markets and the following news headlines looked very hilarious on aud


----------



## AussieMatt

bathuu said:


> I was reading http://www.news.com.au/finance/markets and the following news headlines looked very hilarious on aud




haha yeah, what a headache.


----------



## qldfrog

any explanation with the fall of the AUD overnight?
i would have thought the Fed stating they will not rise the rate in a hurry could have seen the USD go lower instead; or is it just no one believes the Fed and just look at the so called better US figures?


----------



## DeepState

qldfrog said:


> any explanation with the fall of the AUD overnight?
> i would have thought the Fed stating they will not rise the rate in a hurry could have seen the USD go lower instead; or is it just no one believes the Fed and just look at the so called better US figures?




USD rose against majors.  The strength occurred following the strong headline print for Q2 Advanced GDP.  The USD steadied and slightly weakened into the FOMC release, but not enough to give back the gains following the GDP print.


----------



## DeepState

qldfrog said:


> any explanation with the fall of the AUD overnight?
> i would have thought the Fed stating they will not rise the rate in a hurry could have seen the USD go lower instead; or is it just no one believes the Fed and just look at the so called better US figures?




Advanced GDP print was strong and also in detail.  Remarkable turnaround from Q1 and lending credence to the view that the economy was sideswiped by weather rather than underlying developments.  Everything was up in key categories, except imports (which rose, but this subtracts from GDP). The detail does not really suggest an overshoot beyond a recovery from Q1.  

This result is in-line with wide ranged comments from the Beige Book and is also reflective of improving consumer sentiment.

There is evidence that things are looking alright for the US off a low base.


----------



## kid hustlr

RY are you actually retired young or just a good broker?


----------



## DeepState

qldfrog said:


> the Fed stating they will not rise the rate in a hurry




Interesting development in FOMC with Narayana Kocherlakota (Minneapolis Fed) dissenting on final wording on the basis that it does not offer an adequate reflection of the economic recovery.  This guy is independently minded about a fair number of things and will dissent, but this is interesting anyway in that the bias towards monetary tightening seems to have increased.  

Reading through the Fed minutes, I find it interesting that there is considerable slack in the labour markets with limited pricing power there, a point made clear in other surveillance, but inflation is climbing back towards targets already.  Without significant labour productivity growth, which doesn't tend to happen when labour is being added, we are looking at deliberate inflation generation beyond long term targets and real yields being held down.

Ordinarily, you'd expect that the USD would strengthen into such an event.  However, the Fed action and debt overhang at the federal level and also personal level argues for lower than usual real rates.  On balance, corporates still have a lot of cash on balance sheet, are increasing it as % of assets, and returning a ton of cash to shareholders.  This will limit the need to borrow for expansion on a net basis for a while.

Overall, this argues for a lesser response from an economic recovery in relation to a strengthening USD than a more pedestrian recovery might imply.


----------



## DeepState

kid hustlr said:


> RY are you actually retired young or just a good broker?




Hi Kid

I retired a bit after 40.  I was a fund manager back in the day doing funky stuff.  Never was a broker.  Now managing our portfolio and washing dishes.  Collecting the kids in 20 minutes.  And need to figure out why a pile of stock which I just sold does not appear on my systems...

Cheers

RY


----------



## kid hustlr

DeepState said:


> Hi Kid
> 
> I retired a bit after 40.  I was a fund manager back in the day doing funky stuff.  Never was a broker.  Now managing our portfolio and washing dishes.  Collecting the kids in 20 minutes.  And need to figure out why a pile of stock which I just sold does not appear on my systems...
> 
> Cheers
> 
> RY




Ta mate. explains a lot. You were just way too smart to be a broker and fund managers wouldnt be typing on an internet forum


----------



## DeepState

DeepState said:


> Narayana Kocherlakota (Minneapolis Fed) dissenting..




That should have been Charles Plosser of Philadelphia Fed.


----------



## Stratanu

No change leaves AUDUSD short-term rangebound. While .9289/91 caps the immediate risk can stay lower to retest support at .9240/02 – the series of lows from April and May, next. While I would expect this to hold for now for a rebound, capitulation below here can set a much larger top, to target the 200-day average and 38.2% retracement of January/July rally at .9182/76 initially. I would expect this to hold for an initial bounce, ahead of another leg of weakness towards .9082. Above .9291 can complete a minor base for a recovery back to .9323/28. Above .9375 is needed to ease the downside bias.
Strategy: Short, stop above .9390, for .9240.


----------



## Stratanu

The AUSSIE confirmed a weak closing last night below the low of the previous session. A closing tonight below 0,9275 will confirm a top for the AUSSIE suggesting a drop toward the 200 days lien at 0,9178!! The indicators of the daily chart are still well negative as well as those of the s/t charts supporting further weakness. The drop favoured the retest of the previous bottom made this month failing to make a lower low, even in the hourly closing. In the s/t I see a possible retest of the 200 hours line at 0,9299 where I expect however strong resistance. However while below this line the scenery will remain negative. I prefer staying still on the side line!


----------



## Stratanu

The AUSSIE confirmed a negative closing on Friday while remaining interior the previous day’s range forming a new inside day with 0,9390 – 0,9315 the levels to follow in the coming hours! The closing was again below the 100 days line! The weekly closing was positive as well as the monthly one where it even failed to confirm the previous months’ negative month reversal.
The indicators of the daily chart are still well positive as well as those of the weekly one but the indicators of the monthly chart are negative. The indicators of the s/t charts are mixed today suggesting some consolidation. However, while above the 200 hours line at 0,9320 we expect the AUSSIE to move higher toward a possible target at 0,9382!!
We stay on the sideline following the inside day!


----------



## Stratanu

The pair confirmed a weak closing last night but it is already recovering all what it made yesterday on the downside. A closing at the present levels will confirm a positive outside day suggesting a retest of the 0,9375 level that could be the neck line of a reversed S_H_S formation with a double head or a double bottom!! The indicators of the daily chart are already returning above the line and of course also those of the s/t ones are positive suggesting higher levels. In the hourly chart we have however overbought conditions after having formed bullish divergences on the way down. An hourly closing above 0,9366 will however abort the negative reversals already re-launching the move up! We stay on the side line waiting for confirmations!


----------



## Stratanu

The pair confirmed a positive closing last night but it failed to confirm the move above 0,9375 and even that above the 55 days line at 0,9356. However, while above the 0,9340 level we expect the AUSSIE to try further on the upside!! The indicators of the daily chart are still well positive for now while those of the s/t charts are showing a mixed picture suggesting some consolidation/ correction. However, only a break below 0,9330 will support a deeper correction; while above we favour a 0,9400 overshooting!!


----------



## Bill M

Bill M said:


> I bought the ETF USD today on the strength of the AUD. I may have jumped the gun a bit as I believe it could head towards .926 area but I have seen this scenario play out many times before. That is, it takes a run up then out of the blue it makes a sudden reversal.
> 
> It is gambling for me, I am gambling it will make a reversal at around that .92 level then it could head towards that .85 level at which point I will sell. Of course this is all speculation and it could just as easily bust through that .926 level and keep on going to .95, however my bet is on.




Well, that didn't go quite as I expected and it took me this long to get out of this trade. Sold all my USD today at the rate of .897 and made a little profit as well.


----------



## MARKETWINNER

I think AUD could go below 60 cents.

http://www.abc.net.au/news/2014-09-19/australian-dollar-could-fall-to-73-us-cents/5756598

Australian dollar could fall to 73 US cents: analysts

My ideas are not a recommendation to either buy or sell any security, commodity or currency. Please do your own research prior to making any investment decisions. Please note that I do not endorse or take responsibility for material in the above hyper-linked site.


----------



## DeepState

MARKETWINNER said:


> I think AUD could go below 60 cents.




In what timeframe and why?


----------



## Quincy

Anyone got thoughts on which way they think the AUD will go over the next few weeks / months ?

Getting close to 87 cents as of this morning but been up and down in recent weeks.

Do you think it may have bottomed out yet or is there more fall in the Aussie to go ?

Based on recent events - Japan QE + US improvement in economy and ending of their QE + Aussie economy not doing much apart from housing + China housing / economy / shadow banking issues - I get the feeling it may hit 86 cents soon (or lower) but been wrong before when trying to work out the best time to cash in US dollars.


----------



## rimtas

Most likely aud/usd will hit ~0,85  zone in the coming weeks before it will start to rally again. 
 If decline goes extreme then ~0,83 is the next most likely target.


----------



## PipSafe

AUD/USD during the recent days was in a strong and consistent downtrend that sellers were successful in achieving the lowest price of 0.85529.Right now price in long time frames such as monthly and daily is under 5-day moving average and warns about price decrease in long period of time. 
As it is obvious in the picture below, there is a harmonic butterfly pattern between the bottom price of 0.85529 and the top price of 0.89109 that there is a potential for changing price direction from D point of this pattern. Stoch indicator is in saturation sell area follows the bottom price of 0.85529  and warns the possibility of ascending during the next days.Generally until the bottom price of 0.85529 is preserved, the price has the potential for ascending in this currency pair.

Technical Analysis of AUD/USD Dates 2014.11.06


----------



## 787

Hi, First post here [learning trading].
Pipsafe - Thanks for the T/A of AUD/USD, good to learn from. and accurate during the last week.

Why though would you mention the 5-day moving average for the longer time frames? 5sma seems to just follow the trend really short time frame reactively.

It would be great to get an accurate long term analysis.

The price this morning is .87145.

[weekly chart/30 min candles] - price sitting on the 50sma and above 100sma.
[monthly/8 hour candles] - 100sma looks like resistance.?
I still havent learnt how to quantify the importance of these sma's in the different time periods.? Perhaps chart patterns are more relevant.?

It would be nice to chart the turning point here if the AUD weakens and heads south again.

Cheers.



PipSafe said:


> AUD/USD during the recent days was in a strong and consistent downtrend that sellers were successful in achieving the lowest price of 0.85529.Right now price in long time frames such as monthly and daily is under 5-day moving average and warns about price decrease in long period of time.
> As it is obvious in the picture below, there is a harmonic butterfly pattern between the bottom price of 0.85529 and the top price of 0.89109 that there is a potential for changing price direction from D point of this pattern. Stoch indicator is in saturation sell area follows the bottom price of 0.85529  and warns the possibility of ascending during the next days.Generally until the bottom price of 0.85529 is preserved, the price has the potential for ascending in this currency pair.
> 
> Technical Analysis of AUD/USD Dates 2014.11.06


----------



## PipSafe

Hi dear 787
Thanks for your attention
I use 5 sma for log time frames to find big trend and also find overbought and oversold on the trend.in fact inn the example i use to find one zone for oversold and one confirmation to buy.please look at this chart 
The most important point is Harmonic patterns on the big time frames such as H4 , DAILY and weekly


----------



## MARKETWINNER

As I said before we may see steep fall in commodity currencies such as AUD, CAD and NZD. 2015 may be good year for currency market as well. It will be year for USD. One USD could equal to NZD50 and AUD55 by the end of next year.

Australia need a lower exchange rate to achieve balanced growth in the economy. IMHO 2015 will be very interesting year for some currencies especially for overvalued currencies such as NZD and AUD. After EURO, Yen and now RUB, above two currencies are more vulnerable to further fall. Even the federal government's $100 billion Future Fund has cut its exposure to the Australian dollar. Actually both AUD and NZD are at the beginning of their major downturn. Just like other market cycles that is how currency cycle works. We may see fall in these two currencies until 2016/17. 

According to valuation metrics of some currency advisors, they have a long-term fair value at around AUD 70 ¢. I think before it adjusts to fair value it could trade 55/55c against one USD.

My ideas are not a recommendation to either buy or sell any security, commodity or currency. Please do your own research prior to making any investment decisions.


----------



## MARKETWINNER

https://au.finance.yahoo.com/news/australian-dollar-hits-fresh-five-224009907.html

Australian dollar hits fresh five-and-a-half-year low

Please do your own research prior to making any investment decisions.


----------



## Ann

Looking at the long term chart it appears the $AUD may be set for a bit of an upward rebound. It appears to be testing its 0.80 long term support/resistance line and may even make a journey up to the trending overhead resistance line. Let's see. Good trading!


----------



## PipSafe

AUD/USD was in a strong and consistent downtrend during the recent days that sellers were successful in obtaining the lowest price of 0.78575.This bottom price has stabilized by closing of yesterday ascending candle (Daily Chart) and it is the nearest supportive level.

According to the formed price movements in the chart, there is a Shark harmonic pattern between the bottom price of 0.78575 and top price of 0.82931 that warns about ascending of the price with completion of this pattern ending point.

In daily and h4 time frames RSI indicator is in saturation sell area and with the next cycle confirms the bottom price of 0.78575. Generally according to the current situation, until the bottom price of 0.78575 is preserved, there is the potential for ascending of price and reformation of descending trend.


----------



## revolver

nice rebound!
shall we see 0.81 soon?


----------



## notting

People are pricing in a rate cut given the terms of trade have deteriorated.
Glen Stevens has a history of being overly focused on the local housing market over and above terms of trade, when it comes to actually doing something.
May be worth a short term punt to go long on AU the morning of the meeting!


----------



## T0BY

notting said:


> People are pricing in a rate cut given the terms of trade have deteriorated.
> Glen Stevens has a history of being overly focused on the local housing market over and above terms of trade, when it comes to actually doing something.
> May be worth a short term punt to go long on AU the morning of the meeting!




50/50 chance leave on hold or cut I think. Either way - there's going to be volotility. After journalist "rates whisperer" Terry McCrann spoke last week his prediction markets have priced in 0.15 rate cut, as you mentioned.


----------



## qldfrog

I did a small bet that the rates will stay put
I sold my USD etf yesterday  as I believe the short term gains were already made.should it go my way the aud will surge back on the news (mini surge and I get back in USD  with a small profit
I still believe we are not over on the down trend medium and long term.
so this is not a forex play looking at PIPs, nor a medium/long term investment  but a day trade style play.
Let's see.


----------



## T0BY

T0BY said:


> 50/50 chance leave on hold or cut I think. Either way - there's going to be volotility. After journalist "rates whisperer" Terry McCrann spoke last week his prediction markets have priced in 0.15 rate cut, as you mentioned.



McCrann the man!


----------



## qldfrog

I lost


----------



## notting

It seemed like quite a few people like myself were not expecting a cut. So the $ was moving up before hand taking away any incentive to go long for me. Started yesterday so, not enough go get a gain out of it even if they did nothing. So stayed on the side.
Got bashed on some stocks however!


----------



## PipSafe

AUD/USD was in a strong and consistent downtrend during the recent weeks that Sellers were successful in obtaining the lowest price of 0.76248. As it is drawn in the picture below, according to the type of price movement, price is in a Down Channel that Sellers use the supportive edge of that to leave their trades.According to the previous week changes, previous week candle was closed as Spinning Top candlestick pattern which shows vulnerability of descending trend and potential for formation of a bottom price in this range.


As it is obvious in the picture below, between the top price of 1.05769 and bottom price of 0.76248 there is AB=CD harmonic pattern with ratios of 38.2 and 2.24 that warns the potential of ascending from the D point of this pattern. RSI indicator is in saturation Sell area and confirms the current bottom price, also wars about formation of a Bottom price. Generally until the Bottom price of 0.76248 is preserved, price has the potential of ascending.


----------



## T0BY

short 75 pip r:r swing trade..


----------



## BeanJumbler

What do people think - does the AUD have further to fall?

I am no forex trader, but I bought some USD a while back when the AUD was a lot higher. Sitting on a nice paper profit, but deciding when exactly to sell is (as usual) the hard part!


----------



## T0BY

BeanJumbler said:


> What do people think - does the AUD have further to fall?
> 
> I am no forex trader, but I bought some USD a while back when the AUD was a lot higher. Sitting on a nice paper profit, but deciding when exactly to sell is (as usual) the hard part!




I think it may have a bit further to go. I have an initial target of 0.745.


----------



## PipSafe

Technical Analysis of AUD/USD dated 09.04.2015

AUD/USD on 02.04.2015 by creating the ideal bottom price (formation of hammer candlestick with candle confirmation) has started to ascend and could record the top price of 0.77378.Right now in daily time frame price is above 5-day moving average and warns the potential of ascending of price during the next days(Long term time) .Price has formed a top price (Evening star pattern) with reaching to the specified resistance levels in the picture below and it has stopped from more ascend and has started a little descend with shows exit of some buyers from their trades.

As it is obvious in the picture below, between the bottom price of 0.75327 and top price of 0.77378 , there is AB=CD harmonic pattern with none-ideal ratios of 61.8 and 127.2 that with completion of the D point , there is a warning for stopping of uptrend and changing price direction.RSI indicator is in saturation buy area and in divergence mode with the price chart confirms the mentioned top price and warns about changing price direction.The first important warning for ascending of price is breaking of the 0.77378 resistance level(R1 of Pivot Point or D point).


----------



## notting

Let this run a bit then get set for the next jawbone comment from the RBA taking it back down again with the reality that it needs to be there for our economy!

Me thinks.


----------



## Ann

notting said:


> Let this run a bit then get set for the next jawbone comment from the RBA taking it back down again with the reality that it needs to be there for our economy!
> 
> Me thinks.




I doubt the RBA have a whole lot to do with the overall direction of the $A. We measure it against the $US and the $US is in turn measured by the Euro. Currently the Euro seems to be making an upward move from the low trending support line of the falling channel in which it is running. As the Euro rises the $US falls as the $US falls the $A rises. It ain't really rocket science! 

...and a chart to show what the Euro is up to at the moment.....will it keep rising?


----------



## graexx

Ann said:


> I doubt the RBA have a whole lot to do with the overall direction of the $A. We measure it against the $US and the $US is in turn measured by the Euro. Currently the Euro seems to be making an upward move from the low trending support line of the falling channel in which it is running. As the Euro rises the $US falls as the $US falls the $A rises. It ain't really rocket science!
> 
> ...and a chart to show what the Euro is up to at the moment.....will it keep rising?




*Ann*

Agreed, but for traders the news/data (including RBA news) is tradable because:

1. The correlation between the two pairs is obviously way less than 1. So traders can focus solely on the AUD.USD data very successfully. Adding the euro relationships can lead to paralysis by analysis.

2. For pip traders, each important economic announcement, by the US and Aus governments, offers many sub-100 pip trades.

Graeme


----------



## Boggo

Is the AUD finally approaching its low ??

Weekly chart below (click to expand).


----------



## gartley

Boggo said:


> Is the AUD finally approaching its low ??
> 
> Weekly chart below (click to expand).




Hello Boggo.  I think it has further to fall on this leg down to around 0.708-0.71 and coupled with a 5 wave decline you show we should get a rally. But IMO it's not the final low. If I take the cycles work I do at face value the initial value for the final low would be around 0.66 and that is where I would look. But there is also the possibility of a bigger cycle in play and if that takes hold we could see 0.56. But I doubt it.

Interestingly, the low from 2008 to the high in 2011 was 34 months. * IF* it continues down into Dec/Jan it will be 55 fibonacci months from the 2011 high, a squaring in time and expectations would be for a major trend change. In the same way we had 89 fibonacci months from the peak in 2007 to the peak in 2015 in the All Ords and you can see the trend change result.


----------



## Boggo

gartley said:


> Hello Boggo.  I think it has further to fall on this leg down to around 0.708-0.71 and coupled with a 5 wave decline you show we should get a rally. But IMO it's not the final low. If I take the cycles work I do at face value the initial value for the final low would be around 0.66 and that is where I would look. But there is also the possibility of a bigger cycle in play and if that takes hold we could see 0.56. But I doubt it.
> 
> Interestingly, the low from 2008 to the high in 2011 was 34 months. * IF* it continues down into Dec/Jan it will be 55 fibonacci months from the 2011 high, a squaring in time and expectations would be for a major trend change. In the same way we had 89 fibonacci months from the peak in 2007 to the peak in 2015 in the All Ords and you can see the trend change result.




That's interesting gartley.

The max for W.5 based on the chart above would be about 59.5, anything seems possible at the moment !


----------



## Cazzarazza

Hi,
New to trading but very interested in trading the U.S./Aus and have been doing OK.
Just wondering if anyone can advise me on plus 500 and their settlement abilities at present?


----------



## Boggo

gartley said:


> Hello Boggo.  I think it has further to fall on this leg down to around 0.708-0.71 and coupled with a 5 wave decline you show we should get a rally. But IMO it's not the final low. .




Turning close to that level gartley and playing by the rules for now.
What next is the question ?

(click to expand)


----------



## sinner

Boggo said:


> Turning close to that level gartley and playing by the rules for now.
> What next is the question ?
> 
> (click to expand)




It's possible to build models of the drivers of forex pricing. Some input examples might be:

* Interest rate differentials/swap rates
* Current account differentials
* Stock market index spread (e.g. AUD/USD ~= NYSE/ASX) 
* 6A futures positioning

and so on.

Which of these inputs is the marginal (i.e. major, current) driver of the pricing often changes.

But right now, the marginal driver is definitely rate differentials and the expectations thereof. Most of the decline in AUDUSD is down to USD strength, driven by *expectations* of a USD rate hike.

Based on an assumption that rate differentials continue to act as the marginal driver:
* USD rate hike 0.25% - no major move, already priced in
* USD rate hike >0.25% - could see further declines in the AUDUSD rate and intervention by the RBA as we did at levels stretched beyond their "fair value" indication (I think currently sitting around ~0.75) in 2008.
* USD rate cut 0.25%, or USD no hike - probably see an AUDUSD spike back towards RBA fair value.
* USD rate cut >0.25% - probably see an AUDUSD spike back to anywhere close to 0.9-1.

I think the first outcome "no major move" is the most likely, we will be "chopping wood" around here for a while just like we did in the 0.9-1.1 bracket, a pricing which was achieved thanks to the large rate differential at the time.


----------



## Stratanu

The pair confirmed a strong closing last night well above the tops of the previous few sessions suggesting further upside potential toward the 100 days line at 0,7289!!
The indicators of the daily chart are now well positive as well as those of the s/t charts supporting further strength. Bearish divergences in the hourly chart since this morning support further upside potential, postponing the negative reversal situation for now.
In case of a return toward the 200 hour s line at 0,7170 I suggest buy the Aussie for a move higher!!


----------



## cogs

Stratanu said:


> The pair confirmed a strong closing last night well above the tops of the previous few sessions suggesting further upside potential toward the 100 days line at 0,7289!!
> The indicators of the daily chart are now well positive as well as those of the s/t charts supporting further strength. Bearish divergences in the hourly chart since this morning support further upside potential, postponing the negative reversal situation for now.
> In case of a return toward the 200 hour s line at 0,7170 I suggest buy the Aussie for a move higher!!




Are you buying it?


----------



## cogs

Now you could take a small long, for the fade only.

IMO the best of AUDUSD are going to be shorts for a while to come.


----------



## RogueTrader273

I'm thinking about converting a bunch of AUD to USD - considering using Interactive Brokers, does anyone know if there's an Aussie service with a similar or better rate?  Thanks in advance.


----------



## fraa

RogueTrader273 said:


> I'm thinking about converting a bunch of AUD to USD - considering using Interactive Brokers, does anyone know if there's an Aussie service with a similar or better rate?  Thanks in advance.




No service will beat IB AFAIK, assuming you have IB setup to allow you to do FX.


----------



## RogueTrader273

fraa said:


> No service will beat IB AFAIK, assuming you have IB setup to allow you to do FX.




Sadly IB inform me there's new reg's disallowing conversion of AUD to USD   This is very annoying.


----------



## fraa

RogueTrader273 said:


> Sadly IB inform me there's new reg's disallowing conversion of AUD to USD   This is very annoying.




Tell me about it. Technically there is a trick around it, but I am not sure you can wire the money out as USD.

i.e. what you do is buy a USD money market ETF (or something that doesnt move much) with a high price per unit to minimize commisions. 

IB will buy the etf, leaving you with a negative USD balance. The system then automatically converts AUD to USD to cover this negative balance. The rate used is the same as before.

You can then sell the etf to leave you with a positive usd balance. 

Not sure then whether you could wire the USD out though


----------



## RogueTrader273

Thanks fraa, sounds like a promising idea   Googled some etfs, how does this one sound? XBJJ - TFS Long AUD Short EUR.   Apparently IB will convert USD back into AUD so that doesn't appear to be a problem.


----------



## Wysiwyg

Divergence of price and Macd histogram on the hourly leading into the RBA interest rate announcement in 15 minutes. I am guessing 0.7385 or less as the top. Possible outcomes from past experience is a blow off above the recent high and then fall away or a fall on the confirmation of no cut this month but maybe next at 2.30 p.m.


----------



## pixel

Wysiwyg said:


> Divergence of price and Macd histogram on the hourly leading into the RBA interest rate announcement in 15 minutes. I am guessing 0.7385 or less as the top. Possible outcomes from past experience is a blow off above the recent high and then fall away or a fall on the confirmation of no cut this month but maybe next at 2.30 p.m.
> 
> View attachment 67014



Surprise! Market may have expected what you said, but the RBA sounds somewhat different.


> “Taking account of the available information, and having eased monetary policy at its May meeting, the Board judged that holding the stance of policy unchanged at this meeting would be consistent with sustainable growth in the economy and inflation returning to target over time,” said the RBA.



... and the AUD jumps above 74.2c


----------



## Wysiwyg

pixel said:


> Surprise! Market may have expected what you said, but the RBA sounds somewhat different.
> 
> ... and the AUD jumps above 74.2c



Yes that is what happened yet the price continues to diverge from the Macd. The defiance is fantastic.


----------



## Wysiwyg

Finally gave up the run after tipping the 75 cent milestone. Gotta admire the play makers. They love a good squeeze.


----------



## T0BY

Anyone else short? 
Risk off sentiment surrounding Brexit.
Although last NFP number from the US was off the mark, Yellen still leaning towards hawkish with regards to rate hike in coming months.
Although last Australian GDP number was better than expected, Stevens still leaning towards dovish with regards to rate cut in coming months.


----------



## cogs

I am warily short. We have employment figures coming out tomorrow and depending on how they cherry pick the survey as to the size of the move. NFP and Brexit have been moving the AUD more than anything, so depending on how they interpret the Brexit outcome, will determine how they want to market to move tomorrow.

Think we potentially have some upside movements to balance out Londons move down from .74 yesterday, I will be adding shorts there.

Brexit moves will be factored in this week, for sure.

Declining algo wedge on NZDUSD has room to move up soon which usually plays along with AUD. Will wait and see, but it looks like they are throwing mud against the wall now to see if it will stick.


----------



## ukulele

Will you guys be leaving your positions open during FOMC? I suppose the risk is not as big as say a 50% expectation to hike.


----------



## cogs

Looks like .74 going, next stop .747.


----------



## cogs

I will be very interested to see this employment data. They are pumping the AUD up like they expect bad figures, but employment data is well known to be unpredictable because of the method and survey technique, and there is always talk to pump up (jawbone) the economy and employment figures.

I see this as an opportunity to drop the AUD, will wait and see. After all if it doesn't go up it will go down right!


----------



## cogs

No figure fudging today. It appears they realise Brexit news is king.


----------



## notting

Feds just waiting for Bexit not to happen before the raise.
We need to see some headline making market meltdowns to swing the fear of brexit into gear so they vote no.  The fear mongers have managed to get the idiot populous wanting to sing, 'God save the queen.'  BS
I didn't see the fed talk as dovish other than they didn't this month just in case.


----------



## ThingyMajiggy

cogs said:


> I see this as an opportunity to drop the AUD, will wait and see. After all if it doesn't go up it will go down right!




There's your drop


----------



## cogs

Yep, a nice one and got a few more on, but very obvious and watching it closely.

The better position has been XAUAUD with all the Brexit scare and AUD counter move. No brainer.


----------



## cogs

Game to make a rate call for Tuesday anyone?

I am cumfortable believe a 'hold on rates' for now and continue to trade the fades back up to pre brexit 0.76, but always ready for the dump after the pump.

If however the want to surprise with another cut so soon, I stand ready to short down to 0.73ish. I am sure they will pump the Aussie up to satisfy the fade by Tuesday release time so they can move either way after the event. Like always news doesn't always mean much, it is only catalyst for order fills and moving money around.


----------



## cogs

Looks like they want to get the fade over and done with prior to the rate release tomorrow. 

Also looks like I need to put spell check on.


----------



## cogs

Any expectations from the employment survey?

Strange play prior to release. They are pushing the price down I think to then spike up to 0.765, calling a top, then  followed by a push down. 
IMO because this survey is used for manipulation, and as it is not actual factual data, I think they will bring out a low number to try and put a lid on 0.765, now that 0.76 has been faded and especially prior to Carny's potential rate release later. 0.746 to 0.738 in mind after release.

Anyone else making a call?

Technically there is room  to see 0.80, 0.86, 0.93, but fundamentally this doesn't work. Will wait and see I spose.


----------



## CanOz

cogs said:


> Any expectations from the employment survey?
> 
> Strange play prior to release. They are pushing the price down I think to then spike up to 0.765, calling a top, then  followed by a push down.
> IMO because this survey is used for manipulation, and as it is not actual factual data, I think they will bring out a low number to try and put a lid on 0.765, now that 0.76 has been faded and especially prior to Carny's potential rate release later. 0.746 to 0.738 in mind after release.
> 
> Anyone else making a call?
> 
> Technically there is room  to see 0.80, 0.86, 0.93, but fundamentally this doesn't work. Will wait and see I spose.





Cogs, the fx market is one of the largest most liquid markets in the world....are you sure it's manipulation?


----------



## cogs

> are you sure it's manipulation?




Without doubt during the Asian session, and doesn't mean it cannot be 'manipulated'.

I have heard that 5 trillion dollar expression sooo many times, but if you do the numbers hedge funds, banks, leverage etc. then what is available at a given moment in the Asian session and the players can certainly try, after all, that is how the currency moves anyway, supply demand. London does it on nearly every open after the Asian session.

I recently posted a study about 'the cascade effect in fx markets' and it was quite interesting.

Call movements at news release what you like, that is simply the wording I used at the time, some view the word 'manipulation' in a fraudulent sense, I actually intended it as a market mover for the release.


----------



## cogs

Well there's the spike, which didn't even reach half the daily range, let's see if they can keep a cap on 0.765.

I seem to be the only one making calls on these movements, but lonely here, time to move on maybe.


----------



## ukulele

I traded the release. The follow through wasn't great and I got stopped out for a slight gain. I had a thread on here
"trading the news, is it possible to be profitable". But no one seems to? 

I also traded the NFP friday night but again, follow through wasn't there, broke even. 

The biggest moves I have ever seen have been on unexpected news, why not use that to your advantage?


----------



## cogs

> "trading the news, is it possible to be profitable". But no one seems to?



I think (and I wish it was available to me), you need to see the large data and volmues that is available, and the anticipated Bid/Asks at that period of time. I personally do not attempt to trade news unless like you, I can see follow through.
The past few years I have become very accustomed to MT4 which uses a bridge type (delayed) data feed so orders cannot get filled during fast moving news events, and even if the banks choose to accept them anyway. Have been tempted to go back to futures.



> The biggest moves I have ever seen have been on unexpected news, why not use that to your advantage?



Yep, agree, Brexit was a prime example. All the punters were buying, pumpndump distaster waiting to happen.


----------



## CanOz

Hang in there Cogs, I'll post more next week when I'm back on the desk full time!


----------



## cogs

Cool! I know trading is a solitary affair, but it's good to bounce some stuff around sometimes.


----------



## ukulele

be aware all: china GDP can come out early, its due at midday Aus Eastern. 

Sometimes moves the aussie; sometimes markets pay no attention to it.


----------



## cogs

Any idea of expectations?

Forcast 6.6%, but china's data tends to be questionable.


----------



## CanOz

I don't reckon this will move the market that much, unless its a surprise and i mean really, how could a lie be a surprise

Some nice coiling in the AUD now...


----------



## ukulele

China's data is hugely questionable. I also agree that this won't move the markets much, they do love to surprise once and a while though.


----------



## cogs

Shorts are on, with help from the GBP move up (GBPAUD pressure) I think it's time for a AUD decline, it's not a nice top but time will tell.

AUDNZD has been roaring to fill the gap, waiting for it to run out of steam in the next few days maybe.


----------



## ukulele

re: GBPAUD. Wasn't watching the screen at 9pm last night... Was my kind of news move.


----------



## cogs

> re: GBPAUD. Wasn't watching the screen at 9pm last night... Was my kind of news move.



Might have legs up 1.80+


----------



## CanOz

AUD liked this:



> 12:00*(CH) CHINA JUN INDUSTRIAL PRODUCTION Y/Y: 6.2% (3-month high) V 5.9%E; YTD Y/Y: 6.0% V 5.9%E - Source TradeTheNews.com


----------



## cogs

Hmm, got out of my shorts.


----------



## CanOz

I was long before the announcement, wasn't expecting much...Also long aud/cad short eur/nzd and long  nzd/usd


----------



## CanOz

Copper exploded on that news as well...missed that one and i'm not going to chase it


----------



## ukulele

Here we were expecting no impact!

I had a sell stop on just prior to the release, didn't get triggered obviously so cancelled. Be aware of USD retail sales tonight 1030 eastern.


----------



## CanOz

ukulele said:


> Here we were expecting no impact!
> 
> I had a sell stop on just prior to the release, didn't get triggered obviously so cancelled. Be aware of USD retail sales tonight 1030 eastern.





I've got a target of .7720 for the AUD, but who knows...


----------



## CanOz

Now, can we continue or is that it?


----------



## cogs

It's interesting watching them sneak the AUD faid in, maybe they think no one is watching


----------



## CanOz

cogs said:


> It's interesting watching them sneak the AUD faid in, maybe they think no one is watching




Indeed, and when i got back from lunch most of my profit had been eaten...ate? 

Rule No.4 - tighten trailing stops on news or be prepared to give up profits......


----------



## ukulele

heads up peeps 1130 am AU CPI, this will be a market mover.


----------



## cogs

I hope so.

If there is an upside move, I think 0.76 would have to be the short term limit. If there is a down side, well I hope it can break the trend support down to 0.73ish.

I find it a questionable news release, seeing it has been known by data sources for 1 month already anyway, being a delayed release, but can be so impactfull.


----------



## ukulele

looks like you were right, seems like people knew beforehand.


----------



## CanOz

IT was moving well before the release...by 'well before' i mean seconds not milli seconds...


----------



## cogs

Soft side is up, (path of least resistance), it's a matter now of what the Australian central, and Aussie banks want to do. They can certainly show us during the Asian session, but cannot have a say after that.

The short squeeze from yesterday seems to be running out of steam, but we need to see if London wants to get out of AUD, if so they will push up to 0.76 to fill orders. AUDNZD has to touch 1.08 yet so it will be NZD weakness or a shunt up from the AUD.


----------



## cogs

Ok, it appears they have shown they want down, so away we go! Testing the trend now.

Anyone else on the USDJPY rocket ship? My Indicator showed buy all round prior to release.


----------



## cogs

USDJPY turned out to be a big old fake out, I lost a couple, but by the way they are forcing it back down it may have some up side tonight yet.

very confusing with Japan stimulus having less and less effect each round.


----------



## cogs

Interesting call parity (again): http://www.abc.net.au/news/2016-07-27/australian-dollar-back-to-parity-on-trump-win/7663928 

I can see it happening. Australian policy has very little effect on the AUD when it comes to market moves, mighty USD controls all. Reduction in interest rate should help reduce bond buying, but counter USD moves largely influence the AUD.


----------



## cogs

I was going to ask if anyone cares to make a call on the interest rate decision Tuesday, but it appears more and more likely (to me) that the AUD is set to climb longer term, even if a rate cut is implimented. 

It looks like the USD is set for further falls which can only push the Aussie higher. There is growing expectation that a cut will happen, but seriously I do not know if it will have much impact medium to long term, unless the USD settles or US conditions do not roll over, or a larger than 0.25 cut happens.

The way I see it, it will take some special effort to stop this nice bottom from inviting more bulls and interest, especially the way the aussie economy and employment is always jaw boned up so much. The aussie certainly popped during US session friday.




I think they will cut Tuesday, if not Sept for sure.


----------



## CanOz

Hiya folks, happy Monday morning!!

A potential short play on the AUD is shaping up. Looking to jump onto a third drive lower here towards a target of 75.60. If we can bounce into the .7600 -.76.05 area we could have a great entry. Look for sellers here. Good risk to reward at over 1:4

These levels are the CME 6A FX Futures and are not the same as the cash.


----------



## ukulele

A quick fire 1:1 on the CPI print. Anyone else trade it?


----------



## Lemoonjuice

Call me crazy but this is my game plan right now while typing.

Imagine.

AUDUSD hitting 0.82
GBPUSD hitting 1.0
GBPAUD hitting 1.20 ? ?  <- 5,000 pips away.


If GU hits 1.0 and AU hits 0.82 the math on that is fairly epic for GA dropping thousands of pips.

I have been holding long AU for a few months now, just waiting for the breakout.   Gain positive swap for holding AUD$.


What do you guys think ?


----------



## ukulele

personally don't think aud/usd will hit that high. The divergence of central bank policy is just too strong a headwind. But if I was a good trader I'd be a multi millionaire... So take everything I say with a grain of salt.

Did anyone trade the announcement? A small win here, considering basically everyone predicted the outcome.


----------



## ThePiptaker

ukulele said:


> personally don't think aud/usd will hit that high. The divergence of central bank policy is just too strong a headwind. But if I was a good trader I'd be a multi millionaire... So take everything I say with a grain of salt.
> 
> Did anyone trade the announcement? A small win here, considering basically everyone predicted the outcome.




I agree it's going to head back down on the daily but I'll be just scalping to after the US elections now


----------



## cogs

You guys been looking at monthly/weekly charts?

Interesting the efforts trying to keep a lid on it. You could also say there is room for some upward movement.

Make or break, US the 'Trump factor' would do it. Crazy all the hype and market movement over the possibility of him getting in. The world continues anyway, idiots.


----------



## helpme

What happened to AUDUSD today? It has dropped to 0.74638, close to 1% for today. By forex standard, that's a big drop. What's the trigger for the big drop?


----------



## helpme

This article offers an explanation for Aussie dollar's plunge overnight. It is due to the price fall of commodities that are exported by Australia.

http://www.smh.com.au/business/mark...ar-taken-to-the-cleaners-20170503-gvyf4y.html

_The Australian dollar dropped overnight, falling near a four-month low, as copper paced base metals sharply lower in London and iron ore futures in China tumbled.

The local currency "has been taken to the cleaners", said IG Markets's institutional dealer Chris West. The Aussie fell 1.5 per cent to US74.21¢, its lowest since January 11._


----------



## cogs

In my opinion there is no point finding out what caused a movement after the fact. The news will always find a explanation to satisfy (or lead) the curious.

Look at daily or weekly charts, this has been rolling over since week ending 19.03 and is heading for 0.72 then 0.70 then below that. Before that though there will be upticks to frighten out the small money and fill more orders.


----------



## Thomasss

The Aussie dollar has been under the extreme level of bearish pressure in the global market from the very beginning of the year 2016 and things went to the extreme level after the U.S dollar index secured a 14-year record high in the global market. Most of the leading investors were in doubt regarding the next bearish target of the AUDUSD pair but things settled down nicely after the green bucks lost its bullish momentum in the global market after the U.S consumer sentiment turned extremely negative in the global market.

Let’s do the weekly chart analysis in the AUDUSD pair


Figure: Price trading in triangular range in weekly chart​
From the above figure, you can see that the price of the AUDUSD pair has been trading in a triangular region in the trading platform. The professional Aussie traders made a decent income by selling the triangle resistance level in the higher time frame. The trade setups were extremely good as it was executed in favor of the long-term existing trend with price action confirmation signal. But over the period of time trading the triangle support and resistance level is getting much risk as the price is verging near the breakout region of the triangle chart pattern. Though the long-term trend in the AUSUSD pair is bearish we can see a nice bullish morning start formation in the triangle support region in the trading platform. This gives us a clear clue that the price is not ready to break the critical support level at 0.7320 in the global market rather it might surge upward in the upcoming days. However, a clear break of the tail of the bullish morning start pattern will initiate a sharp fall in the AUDUSD pair in near term future. The bullish target still remains intact on the weekly chart and the aggressive long traders are aiming for the triangle resistance level as their profit-taking zone.

Let’s do the daily chart analysis in the AUDUSD pair


Figure: Broken trend line suggest further bullish movement​
In the above figure, you can clearly see that the price has broken the bearish trend line resistance on the daily chart and this clearly suggest that the pair has scope to move upwards in the upcoming days. However, the bullish movement of the pair is still capped unless the price break the critical resistance level at 0.7514 level in the global market. A clear break of the price above that level will bring a significant amount of buying pressure in the AUDUSD pair which will ultimately drive the price to up towards the shaded region at 0.7595 in the global market.

*Fundamental analysis:* The Aussie is most likely to go upward when we consider the fundamental factors in the global market. The recent performance of the U.S economy is significantly week in the global market and all the investors are now eyeing on the upcoming FED meeting. If the FED hike their interest rate then we will see a bearish movement in the AUDUSD pair in favor of the long-term prevailing trend in the market. On the contrary, a dovish statement from Chairperson will fuel of the Aussie buyers and drive the price up in the market.

*Summary:* Considering the technical factors the AUDUSD pair remains strongly bullish in the global market but things will get much clear after the FED interest rate hike decision in the FOMC meeting minute. Most of the leading investors are currently waiting on the sideline and waiting for a clear clue to trade the pair with price action confirmation signal. However, when you execute any orders make sure that you use the proper risk management factors to reduce the risk exposure in trading.


----------



## cogs

Like I said up ticks to takeout small stuff and fill orders. Now on with business.

Very interesting watching the banks come in here after the announcement of positive retail. I say retail therapy due to financial stress and low employment.


----------



## Quant

Retail created the crowd , Chinese caixin pmi dispersed them pretty quickly  . AUD is one of the best data fades around but those key datas 15 minutes apart make these days difficult


----------



## cogs

Once this USD sell off loses some momentum effect on the AUD, will be time to load up again. Great opportunity with patience.
A lot of gift horses in FX at the moment +/- month


----------



## cogs

It will be interesting to see what 'the volume' want's to do with this pair with rate anouncement today and Aus and CNY GDP announcement thursday. This pair has unfinished biz up at 0.7586, either way I am not going long.


----------



## Quant

Odd one out  , I reckon Australia will revert to the positive side of the ledger after fomc  .


----------



## cogs

Definitely accumulating for a push up to 0.76 currently, may be a longer term push to 0.77, but personally I am not going to long this pair. I've been wrong many times before.

Hardly moved at all during British elections, so they are definitely holding it up, could be just to finish what needs to be at 0.758 - 0.76, but just like eurgbp (current gap closing), there is usually consolidation at these points.

What surprised me was how steady it held last week with 71% drop in trade balance and China's 16% drop, tells me another play is at hand, and logically most likely based around FMOC, the all mighty USD.


----------



## cogs

There are a growing number of businesses laying staff off, or simply closing the doors. The latest being Telstra and Channel 10. This employment data coming out is simply a delayed survey and should not be given any seriousness in my opinion. My guess for today will be increasing part time employment and decreasing full time, with a expected focus on part time gain to give that all important positive spin, (he sais with sarastically).


----------



## cogs

cogs said:


> There are a growing number of businesses laying staff off, or simply closing the doors. The latest being Telstra and Channel 10. This employment data coming out is simply a delayed survey and should not be given any seriousness in my opinion. My guess for today will be increasing part time employment and decreasing full time, with a expected focus on part time gain to give that all important positive spin, (he sais with sarastically).



Well I was wrong, but these employment figures, honestly?
This is why I am short euraud and long via audnzd, he he.


----------



## Quant

And here we are  with a now steepened rate curve , look out Bank stocks . Risk is rising and the XFJ is showing it , bank bad debt provisions are almost certainly now at cyclical lows .

Without deflation RBA rates haven't been below FOMC rates , I expect this to continue . If FOMC rates continue to rise RBA has hands tied , must follow


----------



## Quant

Quant said:


> And here we are with a now steepened rate curve



For reference a forward curve 6 weeks old ( May 30 )  , yeah I know they are dynamic and a living entity . Its the trend and how it develops that matters .


----------



## notting

It  looks like China hacked into the RBAs minutes ran the ausi up on the wording that was also misunderstood yesterday and kept it popping.
Now they are clarifying what the minutes meant!!! " RBA ~ financial markets *shouldn't "read into" the RBA's internal debate over the neutral interest rate* or assume that near-term rate hikes are inevitable in the wake of tightening by offshore central banks."

Down she goes!
Ha ha


----------



## Quant

notting said:


> It  looks like China hacked into the RBAs minutes ran the ausi up on the wording that was also misunderstood yesterday and kept it popping.
> Now they are clarifying what the minutes meant!!! " RBA ~ financial markets *shouldn't "read into" the RBA's internal debate over the neutral interest rate* or assume that near-term rate hikes are inevitable in the wake of tightening by offshore central banks."
> 
> Down she goes!
> Ha ha



yep     """   RTRS - RESERVE BANK OF AUSTRALIA DEPUTY GOV DEBELLE SAYS NO AUTOMATIC REASON TO FOLLOW RATE HIKES ABROAD  """  Close the hatches


----------



## Mirus3000

It looks like a begining of big move up on weekly chart.


----------



## Kryzz

Back in the world of regular currencies, the AUDUSD has wiped out the past month's worth of gains within a fortnight. 0.74 - 0.76 looks interesting to enter partial longs for a longer term hold/hedge.


----------



## qldfrog

Not Forex trading but related ..I have a CBA USD account where a foreign customer pay me directly in USD.
What is the best way to convert these USD into AUD: CBA rate and fees are not the best as you can imagine....
any help/previous experience user who is ready to share  welcome


----------



## Mirus3000

I make а convertation by interactivebrokers.com
But aud to usd.  Account CBA ==> BPAY to interactivebrokers= =>а convertation


----------



## qldfrog

Mirus3000 said:


> I make а convertation by interactivebrokers.com
> But aud to usd.  Account CBA ==> BPAY to interactivebrokers= =>а convertation



thanks ..can not help me but can help others


----------



## greggles

There appears to be support at around 70c from back in mid-2015. Aside from that there are the lows of late 2008 and early 2009 when it got under 65c for a while.

Will 70c hold, or will the AUD sink further?


----------



## sptrawler

You could always go back further.

https://www.macrotrends.net/2551/australian-us-dollar-exchange-rate-historical-chart


----------



## kashtrade

AUD/USD steady just above 0.72 ahead of RBA


----------



## InsvestoBoy

Huge flash crash in AUDUSD just now. Huge.

Bid/Ask spreads in the interbank spot market were very wide, I saw 6 pips width.

Managed to get a screenshot on my phone:


----------



## Triple B

Yah .Ihave been short AUD against USD and JPY last couple days. I believe many orders under 0.70 USD .(long holders stop losses) may be responsible for the flash.See it all the time on shorter timeframe , good to see it play out on the longer TF too.
I intend to hold with stops in profit. Been waiting for this for weeks.
Gold is also making a strong move ATM  and $1300 During NY tonight looks like a good thing.


----------



## cogs

Thoughts on AUDUSD target after Thursday/Friday move?

I find it amusing financial reporters mixed messages.
Bloomberg reporter after AUDUSD flash down saying AUDUSD will stay around the .70 handle. I think he just wanted to say 'Handle'. Wait and see I spose.

And in another:
First NZDUSD bullish:
https://dailypriceaction.com/daily-setup/nzdusd-weekly-bullish-pin-bar-points-to-higher-prices 
Then 10 hrs later another reporter NZDUSD bearish
https://www.dailyfx.com/forex/techn...tinue-Slide-NZDCAD-Faces-2016-Resistance.html


----------



## qldfrog

https://www.macrobusiness.com.au/2019/01/australian-dollar-crash-a-warning-of-things-to-come/
Tend to agree


----------



## cogs

For those interested, it appears a good wick still holds good probability in spot forex amongst all the algo's , albeit on longer time frames now days.
A small attempt was made at a fade after market open (as always) and this can be seen on the crosses, but all sessions were buying the AUD so they had little hope.
USD is coming off nicely so this should be a nice move.


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## cogs

Target ~ 0.73470 to where the trapped money was (now blown out with the squeeze and spike).


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## cogs

I find it interesting that general traders are baffled by the AUD rising, then attempt to rationalize it, or a financial reporter then writes an article justify the move.
It's just big players via algo's moving the market to close out positions.
There are a lot of positions yet to be closed out right up to 0.73050, then another step up to 0.73700. See previous post chart.
After today's effort we should see another push tonight up to ~0.72500


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## cogs

Didn't quite reach 72.5 on the overnight grind. Still more hidden gaps above (while more develop below), with big positions above yet to be closed.

Just thought I would add my trades to show I am not full of it.

Reasonable effort being used to shake traders out at this level, hence all my small positions. USD/CHF still has upside potential so this is starting to get messy. Once this pair finally reaches the ~0.73750 level and gives signals there just may be some valid reasons to look at some shorts, but these daily wicks do hold some punch.


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## InsvestoBoy

What defines a hidden gap?


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## cogs

Hi Investo,
Just an indicator I developed which has proved itself over time. There are various formulas and indicators out there which highlight these retrace-able areas.


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## InsvestoBoy

cogs said:


> Hi Investo,
> Just an indicator I developed which has proved itself over time. There are various formulas and indicators out there which highlight these retrace-able areas.




Did you develop it? Because I remember following a FX trader on forexfactory.com since 2009 who calls themselves HiddenGap and has a pretty clear definition of what one is...

https://www.forexfactory.com/hiddengap


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## cogs

Had a quick look and he/she has some interesting posts, couldn't see their definition tho.
Looks like they may have answered your general question.


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## InsvestoBoy

cogs said:


> Had a quick look and he/she has some interesting posts, couldn't see their definition tho.
> Looks like they may have answered your general question.




From memory their definition is large spread/range candles with no or small wicks, something like that.

But you're just gonna say this:



> I find it interesting that general traders are baffled by the AUD rising, then attempt to rationalize it, or a financial reporter then writes an article justify the move.




and then this



> Still more hidden gaps above (while more develop below)




and then not define what you're talking about?


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## InsvestoBoy

> Before I do that, there are a few things I should make clear. WRB analysis was developed by Mark (WRBtrader). He offers a tutorial that consists of 12 chapters for a fee. However, the first three (3) chapters are free. Therefore, out of respect to him and those who have paid money, I can not talk about anything that is only accessible to paid members. Since chapters 1-3 are free to all, I feel it is okay to discuss some of that information and not be breaking any non discloser agreement. Also I have taken WRB analysis and tried to make it my own. So some of what I might say may not be technically 'right', that is, directly from Mark. But we all trade our belief systems and so I have incorporated my belief system into my understand of WRB analysis.
> 
> On a side note, this is why it a fallacy to think that a system or method of trading will lose its effectiveness with wide-spread dissemination. In truth, no two traders will trade a system or method exactly the same because no two traders have exactly the same belief system.
> 
> As I said before, WRB Analysis is a sub-set of Volatility Analysis. The base definition of a WRB is a candle body (Open-Close for candlestick users) that is greater than the previous three (3) candle bodies. Yet, that number can be user defined. Therefore 1 trader may use this definition while another trader may choose to use another number like 7. If a traders uses bar charts, then the base definition would be a bar with a range (High-Low) greater than the previous three (3). Unless otherwise stated, I will be talking in terms of WRBs with respect to candles.
> 
> WRB Analysis is primarily designed to improve a trader's understanding of the Price Action that occurs prior to any trade signal. A chart will have many WRBs but not all WRBs are equal. The WRBs that are of most importance will be Hidden Gap WRBs. A Hidden Gap involves the interval prior to the WRB and the interval immediately following the WRB. The underlying premise of a WRB Hidden Gap is that they represent where key market participants or Big Boys (BBs) have entered or exited positions and this action has created a change in the supply/demand dynamics in the market. Because some of the BBs have entered and exited in this area, and the BBs know that other BBs have likely entered or exited in this area, the area is watched by all the BBs. So all WRB Hidden Gaps represent changes in the supply/demand dynamic but not all WRB Hidden Gaps represent *KEY* changes in said dynamic. Those that represent a *KEY* change are determined by the Price Action after the appearance of the WRB Hidden Gap.
> 
> Drifters and Climbers are WRB Hidden Gaps with some specific price action components that I have imposed. Whilst they have nothing to do with VSA, I have imposed the concept of Effort into the definition. One way I define Effort is by looking at the relationship of the body to the range. If the open is in the lower 25% of the range and the close is in the upper 75% of the range, then there was Effort shown on the interval. So not only does the body need be greater than the previous three(3) but also the open needs to be in the lower portion of the range and the close in the upper portion. Effort can also be seen by the midpoint of the range of the candle. If the range of the candle is greater than the High of the previous candle (for a climber) then there is effort. In Bill William's first book this represents a two bar trend. Which, by the way, is also where the terms drifters and climbers come from.
> 
> Not surprisingly to those who have read some of my posts, most of my climbers will also be "buying" candles. That is, they will make a higher high and not a lower low than the previous candle. This too shows effort on the buy side and a lack of effort on the sell side.
> 
> Lastly, I think of range as showing effort as well. This is where I combine the idea of a Wide Range Body with a Wide Range Bar. So not only is a climber going to have a body (Open-Close) greater than the previous three (3) intervals, but also a range (High-Low) greater than the previous three (3) intervals as well.
> 
> Here's the best part. In chapter three of Mark's work, he talks about WRB Zones created by the user's own trade signals. Although climbers and drifters are not trade signals themselves, I think I can use them to create Zones as if they were actual trade signals because they could be.
> 
> Actually, the best part may be this: A WRB Hidden Gap only creates a WRB Zone based on the Price Action that follows (meets certain predefined criteria). That is another way of saying Result. So I am looking for Climbers and Drifters which are Effort and then looking for Result (the price action that follows). This ties in nicely with VSA and Wyckoff even without the use of volume



from: https://www.forexfactory.com/showthread.php?p=4805164#post4805164

found it from some quick googling...

so are you saying you developed this indicator?


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## cogs

Hi Investo,

I am not sure where you got the idea anywhere that I said 'I  developed the system, coding or indicator you are referring to', but I guess you are entitled to misinterpret any posting that anyone shares on this forum.

In addition, I have not mentioned I need to, (or intend to) define anything I am talking about. Quite simply take it or leave it. Many others have liked what I am sharing, it would be so easy for me to just not post at all. 

I use my own proprietary systems and indicators coded for use on CTrader. I have my own coder O/S. If you follow what everyone else uses and does, expect the same results.

I think your agenda is beginning to be made quite clear now. Do you have anything to share about AUDUSD?


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## InsvestoBoy

cogs said:


> Hi Investo,
> 
> I am not sure where you got the idea anywhere that I said 'I  developed the system, coding or indicator you are referring to',




When I asked "how do you define a hidden gap", you literally said:


cogs said:


> Hi Investo,
> Just an *indicator I developed* which has proved itself over time.






> I think your agenda is beginning to be made quite clear now.




My agenda is as usual to try and understand what people are doing and whether there is anything worthwhile there.

I follow hundreds of quantitative systems and strategies which cover all different kinds of ways of looking at the market. If I see people talking about something which isn't clear, then I question it, to understand if it's something new to add or another take on something I already know about.


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## thomasc

Does anyone know what caused that huge down wick in the AUD? Was there some unexpected news at the time?


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## Triple B

This is my take on it . 
We can see here blue arrow sydney open . as price nears 75.00Jpy tick vol increases.
This is tick vol from Deuschbank my brokers main liquidity provider.
We can assume that most small traders would have been looking for the bounce off 75.00 this is what retail traders do. (get it wrong most of the time)
As price was easily pushed down by big sellers due to thin trading ,longs stop loss orders were hit(the red candle crossing 75.00).
There were then almost no orders below this candle . The orders that were matched were well below the 75.00. no buying happening just selling . eventually buyers (sellers taking profit and bargain hunting) step in and price is pushed back up.
Also note at this time the AUD/USD had just broken below 70.00 the previous day.  so many long stops there were ready to be hit at the same time.  If this was a campaign from the  big bank (s) they look to see if at least a couple major markets are at a significant level, then campaign to hit the stops in both the markets at around the same time. Thinly traded markets help facilitate this by being easier to manipulate due to less orders to chew through.
Have a look at the shorter timeframes  over time and you will see mini flashes as two or more pairs reach significant levels, and then the stop hunt triggers in one pair , then triggers the rest. 
The balance of the market is upset quite easily


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## thomasc

Thanks for the interesting analysis. So it is market manipulation at work...might be a good strategy to look for unusual down candles profit from the rebound provided there is no negative news that triggered the fall in the first place.


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## sasch

thomasc said:


> Thanks for the interesting analysis. So it is market manipulation at work...might be a good strategy to look for unusual down candles profit from the rebound provided there is no negative news that triggered the fall in the first place.




Hi thomasc,

I would be careful with this strategy if you are starting out, as more often than not you will be flattened by the downward momentum. This happened in a matter of minutes. When do you pick the bottom? 

There had already been big falls for a number of days before this and according to my broker over 90% retail traders at the time were expecting the price to rise, while the price continued down on a daily basis.

It would have been easier to go with the downward momentum in the days proceeding the crash, with a trailing stop loss. The below screenshot is an AUD/JPY daily chart.


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## Joules MM1

sasch said:


> Hi thomasc,
> 
> I would be careful with this strategy if you are starting out, as more often than not you will be flattened by the downward momentum. This happened in a matter of minutes. When do you pick the bottom?
> 
> There had already been big falls for a number of days before this and according to my broker over 90% retail traders at the time were expecting the price to rise, while the price continued down on a daily basis.
> 
> It would have been easier to go with the downward momentum in the days proceeding the crash, with a trailing stop loss. The below screenshot is an AUD/JPY daily chart.
> View attachment 91824




smooth downward path, series lower highs n lower lows, then the flush, the deep pockets want 70's and ripped weak longs then ripped weak shorts, but, importantly 70 was an easy round number to get the supply...ask where would deep pockets be sitting, what is the % percentage in the move.....that was a big % swing, and what was the swing in the context of the weekly ranges ?

the 78.62 was  a covering bar,  sure, but if trading that mechanical style it needed confirmation, no convincing signal to be long as the next the bar ran the whole width of the previous "breakout fakeout bar then closed lower than 50% so again, signal of  fake bar daily basis ...fakes for bar watchers


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## Ann

economics
*Aussie's Crazy Day Shows Why It's Most Volatile Major Currency*

The Australian dollar is showing why it has been the most volatile Group-of-10 currency in the past month, swinging about 1.7 percent just in one day.

jobs data, forcing traders to close short positions. Less than an hour later, it sank when an influential economist at Westpac Banking Corp. said the central bank may cut rates twice. The Aussie got a reprieve on reports that the U.S. and China are nearing a trade deal, only to plunge more than 1 percent when Reuters reported that a Chinese port customs has banned its coal shipments indefinitely.

More....


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## Fxortrader

AUSSIE DISAPPEARED AFTER MANUFACTURING ACTIVITIES DECREASED

AUDUSD weakened after the Australian flash manufacturing PMI in March fell to 52.0 vs 52.9 the previous month. The return of safe-haven sentiments related to North Korea also weighed on the Aussie.

At writing, AUDUSD is trading at 0.7104, down 5 pips from the close of the New York session last night.

A new wave of risk aversion is gripping the Asian market amid the latest US-North Korea problems. The US tightened sanctions to North Korea after the failed Trump-Kim Jong un agreement in Vietnam. Two Chinese companies are penalized for doing business with North Korea.

While other news that boosted safe-haven sentiment was China reportedly wearing an anti-dumping policy on several products from the European Union (EU), Japan, South Korea and Indonesia, causing higher yields on US Treasury.


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## MARKETWINNER

https://www.actionforex.com/technical-outlook/audusd-outlook/188016-aud-usd-weekly-outlook-112/
AUD/USD Weekly Outlook


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## cogs

Looks like just another 'pump n dump' with their sell orders placed close of market friday.




Outcome. Now obvious which direction they want.


Now waiting for Lond/US to hold the decline, or up to consolidate at the gap before further decline. Bit of a nasty gap.


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## cogs

And we're in. Bit of a gift horse after the last few days setup.


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## cogs

Wage price index m/m is due out shortly and supposed to way heavily on rate decision, sooner or later.
Could see 0.68 today??
Eventually I expect to see ~0.66 as forecast some time ago, AUDNZD is close to its forecast 0.64, AUD just needs to catch up. Hmm great shorts in AUDNZD?


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## cogs

I'll just answer myself on this one. Not quite reaching the 0.68.
If we see a pop spike up today on employment data it is going to be a great opportunity to put on the new shorts.


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## sasch

cogs said:


> I'll just answer myself on this one. Not quite reaching the 0.68.
> If we see a pop spike up today on employment data it is going to be a great opportunity to put on the new shorts.
> 
> View attachment 94663




Hi Cogs,

This downtrend is reminding me of the flash clash which happened earlier in the year. A lot of negative market sentiment relating to AUD, yet retail traders are heavily long (87% on my broker so far, creeping up quickly), but the price is not budging upwards. Poor souls...

I agree, one nice pop would create a very nice short setup


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## cogs

Hey Sasch,
I had my suspicions whether they would spike up, as it would have been too obvious, instead they did the opposite, spike down then slight pop. Goes to show never trade the obvious. I didn't get in on this just a small short on AUDNZD being a safer bet in my eyes at the time.

Yes i try and source as much 'heard positioning' info as possible so I can mostly do the opposite.
Seems inexperienced retailers still enter too early so as to not miss out.

Blue labs has an app for brokers that can source ALL MT4 positions across Metaquotes which would be priceless, unfortunately not available to retailers.


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## cogs

A piece of gold for readers/retail traders.

Linear equation algo turned off (no fx on weekends so they have no choice). Price opens (jumps/gaps) to closest pool of liquidity, because the algo is no longer controlling it.
Now new algos take over along with MM's and big players. They have achieved their short term goal. They always used for squeezing weak positions out.

The linear equation algo's are gold and they haven't tried to hide them, yet. They nearly always end with a aggressive snap back in the opposite direction. The market is full of them and if you drill down through time frame you can spot them, and when they switch them off.

This one is AUDUSD I thought I would share.
Now you can guarantee there will be numerous news articles explaining (or attempting) this as good news post election and all other kinds of bunk.


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## cogs

And another gap fill.



Looking for an attempt at PumpnDump over the next 13 days prior to rate announcement.
Although to an extent rate cut has partially been factored in. Tricky when it is already sold down so much. Sometimes best top sit on the side and wait for good setups, other AUD pairs over extended may show better promise.

And another gap filled.


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## cogs

Dipped into a pool of liquidity before continuing on its way. I am sure EURUSD will do similar, although tonight may squeeze more shorts first. Either way I'm averaging in.
On with the shorts.


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## cogs

Got in, got out.
Seems since the announcement of 3 x rate cuts coming, some large players are forcing a obvious short squeeze, pumpndump and discount entry prior to potential announcement next week. Might see 0.702 ish then back on with the shorts. maybe some confident longs before then.


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## cogs

Adding a little of context from sentiment interpretation.

Most of the chart below is self explanatory, but why I have posted this is because it is a little unusual for a 'major' pair to give profits like this to retail traders. ie - the dark red line rising slightly above the orange line, which is retail short slightly entering into profit.

What you should also find interesting the amount of retail longs trapped near the recent top, now at 82% long and holding. This is showing 76% of the total 82% long positions are at a loss. Usually I find these go to a maximum of ~2% difference max. before a price turn.

Another point is never, ever is any profit percent above total positions for very long, if at all. Crosses however are different.


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## cogs

This is the NZDUSD version. You can see why price slows when moving toward a intended target. In this case too many retail shorts are making small profits, which is not allowed, small false bottoms are made to entice dumb money buying, knife catching, bottom picking pheeeewie, never good.


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## cogs

And here is the cross pair. AUDNZD

Overall you can see there is more potential for retail traders to be profitable from cross pairs. In this case 60% are long with price going up, ie - less longs trapped. Longs tapering off and shorts building. 
*The price controllers have time and money on their side, so can hold price where they want as long as they want, retailers have less patience. Time may well generate more income for them than price movement.*

Using the legend in the previous post, you can see longs accumulating at bottoms and shorts at tops etc. but still lagging. The same goes for predictability of ranging market prices.


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## greggles

AUD plunges through support at 67.5c and momentarily sinks below 67c after New Zealand's central bank cuts interest rates by half a percent. Sounds like ours will be cut again next month. 

AUDUSD almost back to GFC lows now. Good for exporters, not so much for importers.

How low can the AUD go?


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## jbocker

greggles said:


> AUDUSD almost back to GFC lows now. Good for exporters, not so much for importers.



Not so good if you are overseas on holiday.
But gotta look on the bright side..
Good for Dividends paid in USD.
Looking a bit further...
AUD keeps going down we may soon start up our own sweat shops. Anyone got any tshirt patterns and a bunch of old singers (sewing machines). This could stitch up Newstart problems.


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## cogs

AUDUSD and NZDUSD are approaching long term (projected) lows of 0.66 and 0.64 respectively. Having said that we are in uncharted territory with our 'debt based financial system', so (personally) I am expecting a 'financial reset' in my lifetime which could give little meaning to any current pricing and charts shown.
I will be trading a range of sorts in the current months with AUD which will be a relief from this constant race to the bottom.


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## greggles

Aussie dollar taking a hammering.


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## greggles

AUD is currently at lows not seen in more than a decade. With the Chinese and most western economies looking weaker by the day, is there any hope for the AUD in the short term?

Just looking at the situation objectively, logic tells me we are likely to see 55c before we see 65c again.

Anyone with a view?


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## nodnerb

greggles said:


> AUD is currently at lows not seen in more than a decade. With the Chinese and most western economies looking weaker by the day, is there any hope for the AUD in the short term?
> 
> Just looking at the situation objectively, logic tells me we are likely to see 55c before we see 65c again.
> 
> Anyone with a view?




I'm not an expert. But it doesn't look like it's going to rise significantly again amid interest rate cut in March + coronavirus + bush fire. Not in the short term (6 months).


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## wayneL

greggles said:


> AUD is currently at lows not seen in more than a decade. With the Chinese and most western economies looking weaker by the day, is there any hope for the AUD in the short term?
> 
> Just looking at the situation objectively, logic tells me we are likely to see 55c before we see 65c again.
> 
> Anyone with a view?



The OzSheckel is trading <60c right now.

I recall the days of 48c, and as QE is on the cards starting this week, the bottom is anyone's guess. I'm punting on a helluva a lot lower than where we are now.


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## InsvestoBoy

Long term government bond interest rate differentials stopped being favourable to AUD vs USD in Q1 2018.


Industrial metals prices starting puking around the same time.




That's around when this latest leg down started, and that'll be when it stops.


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## satanoperca

wayneL said:


> The OzSheckel is trading <60c right now.
> 
> I recall the days of 48c, and as QE is on the cards starting this week, the bottom is anyone's guess. I'm punting on a helluva a lot lower than where we are now.




F---k, this dollar is dropping faster than a meteorite, 0.55 now, waiting for the RBA to come out today and cut interest rates, which in the past has pushed it back up.

But given the current turn of events, I have had to let go of 2 (18 developers that have been with me for over 5 years) overseas teams of developers i employ as I pay them in USD, and given that I think it will go to <.50. It is going to hurt.

the RBA intervened in 2008 when the dollar hit 0.62, we are well past that.

I hope they have a game plan.


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## IFocus

wayneL said:


> The OzSheckel is trading <60c right now.
> 
> I recall the days of 48c, and as QE is on the cards starting this week, the bottom is anyone's guess. I'm punting on a helluva a lot lower than where we are now.




Shoulda....coulda moved all my cash to USD when the AUD was 1.10......I did think about it at the time........next time......it will be different .


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## Austwide

What is the significance of a low AUD vrs USD?

Ok imports costs rise including oil, cars and millions of other things.
Overseas holiday costs balloon.

On the other hand

The economy benefits from people holidaying here both local and oversea visitors, local manufacturing grows (too late for cars), export income from mining and other industries etc grows.

This is quite a simplistic view.
What are the other major problems with a low AUD?


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## againsthegrain

Austwide said:


> What is the significance of a low AUD vrs USD?
> 
> Ok imports costs rise including oil, cars and millions of other things.
> Overseas holiday costs balloon.
> 
> On the other hand
> 
> The economy benefits from people holidaying here both local and oversea visitors, local manufacturing grows (too late for cars), export income from mining and other industries etc grows.
> 
> This is quite a simplistic view.
> What are the other major problems with a low AUD?



For example think about any os investors that hold anything in aud e.g property it decreases in their home currency, for example usd.  Good motivation to dump it and sell the aud for usd...  more downward pressure on aud


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## qldfrog

would be great for tourism but that has been annihilated by the fires stories then the virus actions
We are so far from our markets that after this virus lessons, it will be hard to get up strongly in my opinion


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## greggles

Aussie dollar starting to recover. It's just broken through the 60c mark. Interesting that volume is declining as it rises, seeming to indicate that sellers are retreating.

Will be interesting to see if it can consolidate above 60c.


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## InsvestoBoy

greggles said:


> Aussie dollar starting to recover. It's just broken through the 60c mark. Interesting that volume is declining as it rises, seeming to indicate that sellers are retreating.
> 
> Will be interesting to see if it can consolidate above 60c.
> 
> View attachment 101696




Why do you think the volume from a CFD FOREX broker is valid?


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## Kryzz

Looking at the last few sessions seems like the Aussie is ready to rollover again unless things turn around very quickly.


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## InsvestoBoy

2AM last night I woke up in the middle of my usual sleep hours and decided I would buy some puts against AUDUSD futs to hedge my relatively large AUD cash/bond holdings. Entered the position and went back to sleep, woke up to see the market had decided that would be the daily low.

Nice little bottom tick from me


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## InsvestoBoy

Austwide said:


> What are the other major problems with a low AUD?




All of that stuff you mentioned is relatively unimportant.

The biggest issue is that low AUD is a proxy for funding costs for Aus banks to get offshore funding.

Now, the banks need considerably less offshore funding than they did in the GFC, but they still do need a good chunk.



This is not a short term problem, the banks have funded themselves earlier this year and don't need to go back to the markets for 6 months or so I believe. But it might be a long term problem if they want to get some long term offshore funding later this year.

Aside from the banks the same applies, low AUD is not in and of the problem itself, the issue is funding for AU economic participants that need USD.


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## derangedlawyer

This is escalating very quickly.. seems like China is about to impose a ban on four major Australian meat processors, following threat of tariffs of as high as 80% on Aussie barley. The Chinese ambassador two weeks ago: “Maybe the ordinary people will say ‘Why should we drink Australian wine? Eat Australian beef?”.

Commercial relationships with China becoming precarious is bearish for the AUD.


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## Cam019

AUD/USD looking interesting here to me. Retraced back into the 61.8 fib. Probabilities give us a potential target between 121.4 - 138.2 fib extension. Looking at the daily chart we have prior support/resistance at 0.7490 - 0.7500; right in the middle of our extensions target range - this makes a nice target. I'd be looking for a break of 0.7300. A stop of about 35 pips gives you a R:R of around 5:1.

Hourly (delayed data):



Daily:


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## Cam019

Flipped. Looking for a short setup here on the hourly.


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## Cam019

Triggered on the 30 minute.


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## Cam019

Long AUDUSD @ 0.72861. Target around the 0.75000 level. R:R = 11.26.


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## Cam019

This might be of interest to anyone trading currencies.

Daily chart with a pull back in a strong uptrend - question is... when to get in?




No one really knows, BUT - check out this glorious looking inverted head and shoulders pattern on the 1H time frame with a nice bullish pinbar. Could be a HUGE R:R play!


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## peter2

OK I'll bite.   AUDUSD Buy stop: 0.7715, SL 0.7688, target 0.7750   (set and forget)


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## peter2

@Cam019  Timely post on the AUDUSD.     My trade hit it's target overnight. Price is going higher.


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## Smurf1976

My currency speculation efforts are in the "experimental" category at present so don't take my analysis too seriously but the AUD has dropped to .7325 at present. I'm thinking that's unsurprising given the broader picture of a drop in other markets over the past day or two and also the COVID lockdowns now affecting ~half the Australian population probably aren't adding too much to confidence.

Looking at a chart going back several years I'm thinking that we're headed to 70 cents or thereabouts. A nice round number which has at varying times over the past 2.5 years marked a temporary top or bottom.

At present holding the USD ETF although I'm trading it as though it were a stock not a currency pair.

Interested in the thoughts of others.....


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## qldfrog

I believe the USD is on a global decline but will still go much higher AUD wide.708sh looking reasonable in a crash situation.
if it reaches these levels, i would be keen to swap usd for russian or Chinese currencies which are more gold backed..
That the monthly/ yearly plan...
The wildd card is independent cryptos like btc eth..will they be suppressed or act like the new gold.


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## Student of Gann

I have prepared two Curves indicating the possible direction of the AUDUSD . 
Curve No 1 : Indicates the possibility of price moving down into the 21st September  for Low then up till  20th October for Main Top and down till 4th November for Low.
Curve No 2 : Indicates the same pattern of direction with trend up till 20th October where Main Top is indicated .
Out of the two potential Low dates the * 4th October looks like s stronger possibility due to the convergence of two Cycles into this date so my strategy would be to wait and see if we trade below the 21st September point and if that date can not hold as Low we should then continue to move down into the 4th October so I will be watching the next few sessions closely to see how it plays out . There is also another Minor swing point indicated for the 12th October which could either turn out to be Minor high or low but it appears the prevailing direction out from the projected Lows is up till the 20th October then we could be lower into the 4th November which should be another significant turning point


----------



## CityIndex

AUD/USD seems to be getting a boost from the recent rise in iron ore prices following China’s latest efforts to stimulate the economy by lowering their 1-year loan prime rate. This comes despite the RBA minutes showing the Aussie central bank is remaining dovish while the Federal Reserve begins to tighten monetary policy.

Following yesterday’s 0.83% rise, the pair now looks on course to test this month’s high at 0.7225. A strong break from this level could ignite an extended rally. However, given the latest report showed US consumer confidence improving, coupled with the newly hawkish Fed, USD bulls could very easily step in and limit upside potential for AUD.

All trading carries risk, but it should be very interesting to see what direction this currency pair takes in the final few days of 2021.


----------



## qldfrog

CityIndex said:


> AUD/USD seems to be getting a boost from the recent rise in iron ore prices following China’s latest efforts to stimulate the economy by lowering their 1-year loan prime rate. This comes despite the RBA minutes showing the Aussie central bank is remaining dovish while the Federal Reserve begins to tighten monetary policy.
> 
> Following yesterday’s 0.83% rise, the pair now looks on course to test this month’s high at 0.7225. A strong break from this level could ignite an extended rally. However, given the latest report showed US consumer confidence improving, coupled with the newly hawkish Fed, USD bulls could very easily step in and limit upside potential for AUD.
> 
> All trading carries risk, but it should be very interesting to see what direction this currency pair takes in the final few days of 2021.



Had a good.lucky sale 2d ago on a substantial packet.moved more by logistic than market cunnings..but profit is in.


----------



## CityIndex

AUD/USD took a hit after Wednesday’s FOMC minutes showed a willingness by the Federal Reserve to increase interest rates sooner and faster to deal with inflation. 

Selling accelerated on Thursday as the currency pair fell below 0.7200, and with US Non-Farm Payroll out later tonight there could still be more downside on the cards. If employment keeps up its recent pace of recovery, it could all but confirm an earlier-than-expected rate hike, and expose AUD/USD to a retest of support near 0.7100. 

Are we in for a deeper pullback, or can the pair bounce from here? 

All trading carries risk, and it remains to be seen how the Fed reacts to tonight’s employment, but this definitely looks like one to add to the watchlist for the time being.


----------



## investtrader

I follow the AUD/USD mainly for my business, as I import a fair bit priced in USD. I have noticed huge volume lately on the Weekly chart on Trading View. Anyone have any idea why this is? Assuming the data in accurate I guess.


----------



## frugal.rock

From FXStreet,




The AUD/USD technical momentum is positive after the breach of the previous year-to-date high (0.7441). Economists at OCBC do not rule out further extension towards the 0.7550 zone.
Buoyant aussie​“The underlying environment – improving sentiment, stability in China, rising commodity prices, unwinding of AUD-shorts – is favourable for the AUD at this juncture.”
“The technical momentum for the AUD/USD could see the pair taken towards 0.7550.”


----------



## Stockbailx

frugal.rock said:


> From FXStreet,
> 
> 
> 
> 
> The AUD/USD technical momentum is positive after the breach of the previous year-to-date high (0.7441). Economists at OCBC do not rule out further extension towards the 0.7550 zone.
> Buoyant aussie​“The underlying environment – improving sentiment, stability in China, rising commodity prices, unwinding of AUD-shorts – is favourable for the AUD at this juncture.”
> “The technical momentum for the AUD/USD could see the pair taken towards 0.7550.”




AUD/USD has I guess came close to reaching the 0.7550 mark. 5/4/22 Momentum changed, and it has since been traveling south. It looks to be following yesterdays lows today at around the 0.74 price. My take is that low momentum will continue into next week, price will moderate around the election...

1day chart


----------



## Student of Gann

Hello here is a Forecast for the AUDUSD which was posted on the 30th March calling Top for the 6th April currently down 411 points .

 AUDUSD Curve : 
 Price will most likely follow Curve 1 but Curve 2 has been included for reference . Trade in the direction of the prevailing trend out of the timing  dates.


----------



## Stockbailx

For me the AUD/USD on a weekly prospective looks to be trending south. In the coming days there will some upturn, but the correction is with the downside momentum...


----------



## Stockbailx

The AUD still looks in negative territory, further downturn predicted for the day. The daily chart appears oversold, as the weekly bearish momentum continues. Although on the other hand if tomorrows interest rate decision is to rise, you should see the AUD rise with it disrupting momentum and we could see a correction in play for the near term...


----------



## Student of Gann

Here is the AUDUSD  Forecast issued 30th March calling Top for the 6th April with main trend down to 29th April where main Low  is indicated. 
studentofgann twitter


----------



## qldfrog

WTF,?
48h ago:
Australia bumps rate by 0.25% and the aussie $ stays more or less flat..ok i can understand that..small interest rise,not enough to make difference vs inflation. And US reserve bank to announce his decision soon
Today US bumps rate by 0.5%,highest one step jump, twice the aussie size
And the AUD jumps by nearly 2pc..no kidding


Ohhh thanks God i am not doing forex, i would be annihilated...but my gold silver and us denominated assets still get a heavy respective hit...
What am i missing?


----------



## Cam019

qldfrog said:


> What am i missing?



Fundamentals or technicals Frog?

Fundamentals I would have no clue. Technicals however show that the hourly chart had switched to a bullish structure by 11am on the 03/05/2022. Then there were plenty of structure breaks on lower timeframes which left behind great demand zones for entries.







Longer term however - AUD/USD is bearish. Weekly shows the following.

Blue box is the overall structural leg we are in. Red box was the last unmitigated supply zone which was tested, but not broken through with displacement (candle close on this timeframe). Best analysis is that price is heading back up to test the white box and then continue heading lower. First to the liquidity point marked and then probabilities suggest even lower.


----------



## qldfrog

Was trying to put basic economics, sense etc.could not...
The only advantage i see currently in the AUD is its commodities link
Otherwise all negative: election cycle ,China ,oil price, inflation and RE crazy country


----------



## Cam019

qldfrog said:


> Was trying to put basic economics, sense etc.could not...
> The only advantage i see currently in the AUD is its commodities link
> Otherwise all negative: election cycle ,China ,oil price, inflation and RE crazy country



I stopped trying to understand the fundamentals and economic factors quite a while ago. Did my head in. I’ll leave that fun endeavour for you to undertake. 😊👍


----------



## Stockbailx

Fundamentally I think the rate hike, has changed the trend of the AUD. Technically the momentum has changed to bullish until the next USD rate rise when ever that might be. With that been said I'll still be buying the AUD/USD...


----------



## qldfrog

Well the lemmings have changed minds and it seems that what was good yesterday is bad today
Markets trashed..-5% and AUD vs USD down sharply -2%
What can i say.. I won't complain


----------



## Garpal Gumnut

AUD/USD has just had an enema. 




gg


----------



## Stockbailx

Certainly good news for investor selling the AUD. it's been pushing with a bearish attitude this past month. As the weekly chart becomes ex-spendable. Expect the trend to ease with given pressure during the week. With the H4 tuning key, I look forward to a continuance  of AUD/USD selling power. Same can be said for crypto market. I wonder what the connection is there? If any...


----------



## Stockbailx

AUD/USD hammered down this morning just after announcement of wage index up 8% I think. An unexpected outcome given the increase to wage index. What that means I don't know? But a do-able given after yesterdays highs, looking exhausted in a overbought AUD market. I'm certainly taking advantage of this as AUD continues to hold a bearish theme for me...


----------



## Mohammed Hazabig'un

Stockybailz said:


> AUD/USD hammered down this morning just after announcement of wage index up 8% I think. An unexpected outcome given the increase to wage index. What that means I don't know? But a do-able given after yesterdays highs, looking exhausted in a overbought AUD market. I'm certainly taking advantage of this as AUD continues to hold a bearish theme for me...
> 
> View attachment 141824



I assume that's on expectations the RBA won't go hard next Meeting.
A bigger IR rise expectation wouldn't done that.


----------



## CityIndex

Stockybailz said:


> AUD/USD hammered down this morning just after announcement of wage index up 8% I think. An unexpected outcome given the increase to wage index. What that means I don't know? But a do-able given after yesterdays highs, looking exhausted in a overbought AUD market. I'm certainly taking advantage of this as AUD continues to hold a bearish theme for me...




The Wage Index for Q1 rose 2.4% YoY and 0.7% QoQ, both of which narrowly missed estimates. 

The reason for the sharp pullback in AUD/USD was likely due to the weak print causing traders to ease up on speculation for a larger rate hike by the RBA during their next meeting. 

All trading carries risk, but it should be interesting to see what this means for the Aussie Dollar in the near-term.


----------



## Mohammed Hazabig'un

CityIndex said:


> The Wage Index for Q1 rose 2.4% YoY and 0.7% QoQ, both of which narrowly missed estimates.
> 
> The reason for the sharp pullback in AUD/USD was likely due to the weak print causing traders to ease up on speculation for a larger rate hike by the RBA during their next meeting.
> 
> All trading carries risk, but it should be interesting to see what this means for the Aussie Dollar in the near-term.



Thanks. Translation: Market thinks .25% again?


----------



## Stockbailx

CityIndex said:


> The Wage Index for Q1 rose 2.4% YoY and 0.7% QoQ, both of which narrowly missed estimates.
> 
> The reason for the sharp pullback in AUD/USD was likely due to the weak print causing traders to ease up on speculation for a larger rate hike by the RBA during their next meeting.
> 
> All trading carries risk, but it should be interesting to see what this means for the Aussie Dollar in the near-term.



Thanks for the heads up! That explains it. I'll have to keep an eye on that web site CityIndex News & Analysis


----------



## CityIndex

Mohammed Hazabig'un said:


> Thanks. Translation: Market thinks .25% again?



It seems like it, although it remains to be seen what the other economic data between now and the RBA's June meeting signals.


----------



## Mohammed Hazabig'un

CityIndex said:


> It seems like it, although it remains to be seen what the other economic data between now and the RBA's June meeting signals.



Many thanks. And that Site is









						Markets - Trade CFDs - City Index Australia
					

Browse our extensive range of markets. Trade CFD indices, shares, forex, commodities and cryptocurrencies - all with competitive pricing.




					www.cityindex.com


----------



## divs4ever

since the RBA  REALLY needs to at least catch up to 'official inflation'   could i throw in an uninformed  0.4% into the ring ( to bring the official  interest rate  to 0.75% )

 now members here will know 0.75% ( or less )   will actually do squat  to tame inflation by itself   , but the SHOCK   might cause a ripple in investor sentiment  and start  some serious risk reduction .

 after all jaw-boning and mind-games are all the RBA have really  got to play with ( i doubt they have the courage  of , say ,  Russia or Turkey  with multiple percentage jumps when needed  recently )


----------



## Stockbailx

With all that been said? i would expect the AUD to decline for the rest of day and week for that matter! Thinking late into the week and early next week, when all the dust settles. The AUD will regain confidence in the short term and set its sites higher in the long term. Maybe, with the way things are going. But knowing my luck not likely?


----------



## Stockbailx

Unemployment data to be released today. An expected decline of it current rate of 4%. This should in turn boost the confidence of the AUD. As it seemed to of started this morning on highs on a 30m basis. But despite these overheads, the AUD still looks bearish to me and as I've been saying, it should continue on that theme. Anyone else got over sight on the AUD/USD...


Stockybailz said:


> With all that been said? i would expect the AUD to decline for the rest of day and week for that matter! Thinking late into the week and early next week, when all the dust settles. The AUD will regain confidence in the short term and set its sites higher in the long term. Maybe, with the way things are going. But knowing my luck not likely?


----------



## Student of Gann

AUDUSD Forecast :
studentofgann.com.au


----------



## Student of Gann

As outlined in my previous post from the 29th May it appears we are moving in line with the Forecast  indicating  counter trend Top for  the 7th June . If this turns out to be Top main trend should be down till the X June where main Low is indicated . A minor reversal is indicated on the X June so if we get a small rally into this point we can enter short and pyramid our position down into X  if trend is moving in the projected direction . The previous Cycle ran down approx 4.79% so once the 7th June Top comes in we can project this percentage down which will give us a price measure to monitor .
The highlighted box measures 29 days up and the projected time period into the 7th June Top = 26 days. I have projected the two ranges up from the 12th May Low which may be handy reference points as we move into the first target date however the second extension is a bit far off for the 7th June but we will make note of it for future reference . There are two important price levels to watch which are 7342 or 180 Deg and 7372 or 90 Deg . These two points are quite close together and mark an important price zone . The second chart is a previous Forecast that was posted on my twitter account on the 30th March calling Top for the 6th April which was one day off the Top with trend down till the 29th April . Actual Top came in on the 5th April and main trend was down till the 2nd May one day past the 29th forecast date culminating in a large price spike before trending lower . The third Chart is a Curve indicating Top into the 7th June and from that point all of the dates are covered to avoid copying .
studentofgann.com.au
Student of Gann at twitter


----------



## CityIndex

It will be extremely interesting to see how AUD/USD reacts to today’s RBA Meeting as the pair edges lower today after losing support at 0.7200 overnight.

Economic data since the last meeting has been mixed, creating a lot of uncertainty as to whether we will see another 25bps rate hike, or a more hawkish 40bps move as Q1 inflation figures came in above the RBA’s target band.

A 40bps hike would also take the cash rate back up to pre-COVID levels and realign it with the 25bp increment it has historically moved in. This could also help AUD/USD extend its recovery from the mid-May lows, although gains are still likely to be limited by the strong resistance at the 200-day MA.

All trading carries risk, but it will be worth keeping an eye of the Aussie Dollar with the RBA’s decision just a few hours away.


----------



## Stockbailx

The RBA Interest Rate dicision has been made by rising up 0.5% to 0.85%. Watching the AUD/USD rise quite magnificently to 0.72449c. Interesting to see were it goes for here. Slowly decreasing in price. Will it fall back on its bearish trend or continue on with highs, if it has the confidence...


----------



## Garpal Gumnut

Stockybailz said:


> The RBA Interest Rate dicision has been made by rising up 0.5% to 0.85%. Watching the AUD/USD rise quite magnificently to 0.72449c. Interesting to see were it goes for here. Slowly decreasing in price. Will it fall back on its bearish trend or continue on with highs, if it has the confidence...
> 
> View attachment 142632



I was asking myself the same question as it affects my Gold bar of which I bought many more recently and the strong AUD decreases the value in AUD which is what I buy my cigars, beluga, RN98 and Champagne in.

 My guess is The Fed will have a similar rate rise. They meet again next week, so I'd imagine the AUD may take a hit then.

I've never traded Forex, so I'm no expert.

gg


----------



## qldfrog

Well AUD not far from a free fall


----------



## Telamelo

qldfrog said:


> Well AUD not far from a free fall
> View attachment 142891



I'm a little perplexed as thought if RBA increases cash/interest rates then our AUD increases as well !?


----------



## qldfrog

Telamelo said:


> I'm a little perplexed as thought if RBA increases cash/interest rates then our AUD increases as well !?



It should but i think usd is just climbing higher , US fed rates might actually jump much higher quicker so aud is down down down


----------



## Telamelo

qldfrog said:


> It should but i think usd is just climbing higher , US fed rates might actually jump much higher quicker so aud is down down down



Well kind of makes sense then.. thanks. 

US Fed supposedly hiking rates tomorrow morning (our time) by another 0.75 basis points but possibly even a full 1.0


----------



## Stockbailx

AUD has rebounded with a positive note, coming of recent lows ending yesterday...Watching with great interest as to how high its intent on going. As an investor I'm hoping highs to continue on to the top of 1hr Fib Retracement. Or at best surge to the 200ema bounce to retrace to the top of Fib. A bit of a prospect after there has been a interest rate hike, giving the AUD more confidence going forward.


----------



## Stockbailx

Stockybailz said:


> AUD has rebounded with a positive note, coming of recent lows ending yesterday...Watching with great interest as to how high its intent on going. As an investor I'm hoping highs to continue on to the top of 1hr Fib Retracement. Or at best surge to the 200ema bounce to retrace to the top of Fib. A bit of a prospect after there has been a interest rate hike, giving the AUD more confidence going forward.
> 
> View attachment 142933



AUD/USD building confidence, managed to rebound off the 200ema, early this morning, now looking at a possible swing back into bullish territory, but highly unlikely. It's give or take as momentum in its present form moving sideways with every indication of a bull swing to close off the day. Of course its early days and it could go either way. AU Gold is holding up solid. The swing up is just a near term premonition, and looks unlikely in the long term...


----------



## Garpal Gumnut

Just looking at the fall in the AUD/USD one hour ago, I would say many US funds were topping up on Aussie stocks today. 

They must see us as a safe haven. 

Don't ask me what the times on the X axis are. 



>




gg


----------



## Stockbailx

Going out of a whim here and predicting AUD/USD to rise today. Indications to me show the tide is turning foe the AUD and I expect it to be up for most of the day. Pushing AU Gold prices down...


----------



## Stockbailx

With the AUD/USD consolidating a range sideways yesterday...It could go either way, looking for the breakout today...Here's what analyst had to say this morning;

AUD/USD intraday: as long as 0.6939 is support look for 0.7041 pivot point stands at 0.6939.* preference:*As long as 0.6939 is support look for 0.7041.*Alternative scenario:*Below 0.6939, expect 0.6903 and 0.6881. _*Comment:*_The RSI is above its neutrality area at 50. The MACD is below its signal line and positive. The pair could retrace. Moreover, the price is trading above both its 20 and 50 period moving average (respectively at 0.6969 and 0.6967).


----------



## Stockbailx

AUD/USD looks to be ranging side ways towards the top half of trading yesterday, expect it to continue on that form for most of the day, however with sp bouncing of 0 fib and retracing backwards into that range, momentum looks in favor of a breakout above 69240. Alternatively below 68753...Early into the trading day and don't ext much from the AUD fighting for higher territory...


----------



## CityIndex

AUD/USD is trading higher following stronger-than-expected retail sales figures:

AU Retail Sales (MoM) May: 0.9% (est. 0.4%) 

This could potentially bolster local sentiment, and when coupled with the news of China cutting quarantine time, may help the pair hold above 0.6900 this week. 

However, all trading carries risk, and AUD/USD could still break lower as weak consumer confidence from the US delt fuelled global recession concerns.


----------



## CityIndex

Despite a less aggressive tightening cycle from the RBA relative to the Fed, steep losses in commodities, and the US Dollar catching a bid from recession fears last night, AUD/USD is still managing to hold support at 0.6800 on closing basis.

Australian inflation is forecast to hit 7% this year, and if the pair continues to hold this level over the coming weeks, a strong CPI print at the end of the month may spark a rebound on increased speculation that the RBA will be more aggressive, or at least front-load their rate hikes, at upcoming meetings.

All trading carries risk, and we still need to get through this week’s FOMC Minutes and key US employment data, but it will be worth keeping an eye on how this develops.


----------



## Stockbailx

Looking at a buy opportunity for the AUD/USD as pivot point 0.6816 has been reached and the tide is turning seeing some up side or down side to prevail:


 Preference:The upside prevails as long as 0.6816 is support.Alternative scenario:Below 0.6816, expect 0.6785 and 0.6767.The RSI is above its neutrality area at 50. The MACD is above its signal line and positive. The configuration is positive. Moreover, the price is trading above both its 20 and 50 period moving average (respectively at 0.6835 and 0.6815).


----------



## Stockbailx

AUD/USD going against the grain again this morning dropping even further short, after yesterday Interest rate decision to raise rates 0.5%.
The weirdest thing happened the AUD fell like a ton of bricks. Negative consensus across the AU board, may have contributed to the fact the AUD fell instead of rising in conjunction with the rate hike. If I was a gambling man, I would of lost me bundles of joy over it. 
In the shorter term you would expect The AUD to bounce back, but the negative consensus keeping the AUD short and struggling to find resistance. In the longer term I predict AUD to fall further to 0.667...


----------



## qldfrog

Stockybailz said:


> AUD/USD going against the grain again this morning dropping even further short, after yesterday Interest rate decision to raise rates 0.5%.
> The weirdest thing happened the AUD fell like a ton of bricks. Negative consensus across the AU board, may have contributed to the fact the AUD fell instead of rising in conjunction with the rate hike. If I was a gambling man, I would of lost me bundles of joy over it.
> In the shorter term you would expect The AUD to bounce back, but the negative consensus keeping the AUD short and struggling to find resistance. In the longer term I predict AUD to fall further to 0.667...



Do not forget China, the more the US push them, the more the US allies pay.
Question is: 
are the Us doing a Ukraine play with Taipei, 
And if they do , who will be the ones to suffer/pay the price
For Ukraine EU 
For Taiwan, i think Oz and Japan/Korea
So yes bull USD, bear AUD in that context


----------



## Stockbailx

AUD/USD intraday: as long as 0.6954 is support look for 0.7028AUD/USD expected by analyst to climb further more today, 0.6954 a turning point for the AUD. My personal preference a few days ago. Was the the AUD to fall to a low of 0.671 by the end of the month. Interesting to see how it pans out? Our pivot point stands at 0.6954._*Preference:*_As long as 0.6954 is support look for 0.7028.*Alternative scenario:*Below 0.6954, expect 0.6928 and 0.6913.*Comment:*The RSI is above its neutrality area at 50. The MACD is below its signal line and positive. The pair could retrace. Moreover, the pair is trading under its 20 period moving average (0.6985) but above its 50 period moving average (0.6950).


----------



## CityIndex

That’s an extremely interesting technical analysis. The pair tested a break above 0.7000 yesterday after holding support around 0.6900 on Monday, but this week’s US inflation data is also likely to play a big role in near-term direction.

Recent speculation that the Fed has reached peak hawkishness has seen the US Dollar pullback its mid-July high, and a soft CPI print on Wednesday should bolster this sentiment. This could help AUD/USD retest 0.7000, and a break of this key level may even put the pair’s 200-day MA in sight as USD bulls continue to take profit.

However, all trading carries risk, and after the blow-out NFP report on Friday, a stronger-than-expected inflation reading may spark a retracement as the market reprices for continued aggression from the Fed.


----------



## Stockbailx

CityIndex said:


> That’s an extremely interesting technical analysis. The pair tested a break above 0.7000 yesterday after holding support around 0.6900 on Monday, but this week’s US inflation data is also likely to play a big role in near-term direction.
> 
> Recent speculation that the Fed has reached peak hawkishness has seen the US Dollar pullback its mid-July high, and a soft CPI print on Wednesday should bolster this sentiment. This could help AUD/USD retest 0.7000, and a break of this key level may even put the pair’s 200-day MA in sight as USD bulls continue to take profit.
> 
> However, all trading carries risk, and after the blow-out NFP report on Friday, a stronger-than-expected inflation reading may spark a retracement as the market reprices for continued aggression from the Fed.



Yesterday I posted that the AUD was to fall the the figure of 0.6954. The AUD is now in its morning range on that mark. Analyst suggested to be looking for the mark of 0.7028. With the AUD market moving with low/slow momentum it could go either way. Today I'll be looking at 0.6980 as a breaking point give or take the direction the AUD is heading for today if any? Also looking for a break below its present range?


----------



## Garpal Gumnut

Just looking at some fundamentals my guess is that the AUD:USD will be closer to 0.5000 than 0.7000 before the end of the year. 


Aussie Central Bank timidity on increasing interest rates.
Australia is a quarry.
No manufacturing base.
When the s**t hits the fan with the European and Chinese wars commerce will cease
Blocked supply chains.
No demand for Australia's quarry assets iron, coal, copper, PMs.
Quarries always last to kick in when demand for bricks return after overseas manufacturing resumes.
Oh, and don't do your own research. ( Those muppets at ASIC can't even catch the real crooks in Mossman and Toorak )

I've got enough Gold now. 

I'm buying anything denominated in USD e.g watches. 

I'll sell em again when AUD/USD goes back up to 0.8000

gg


----------



## JohnDe

Garpal Gumnut said:


> Just looking at some fundamentals my guess is that the AUD:USD will be closer to 0.5000 than 0.7000 before the end of the year.
> 
> 
> Aussie Central Bank timidity on increasing interest rates.
> Australia is a quarry.
> No manufacturing base.
> When the s**t hits the fan with the European and Chinese wars commerce will cease
> Blocked supply chains.
> No demand for Australia's quarry assets iron, coal, copper, PMs.
> Quarries always last to kick in when demand for bricks return after overseas manufacturing resumes.
> Oh, and don't do your own research. ( Those muppets at ASIC can't even catch the real crooks in Mossman and Toorak )
> 
> I've got enough Gold now.
> 
> I'm buying anything denominated in USD e.g watches.
> 
> I'll sell em again when AUD/USD goes back up to 0.8000
> 
> gg




that's a big drop with only 4 months to go. If that is the case, I'm very pleased that I started buying US shares at $0.80 and kept going until $0.75. Might have to contemplate selling them at $0.50, though the tax man won't be nice.


----------



## Garpal Gumnut

JohnDe said:


> that's a big drop with only 4 months to go. If that is the case, I'm very pleased that I started buying US shares at $0.80 and kept going until $0.75. Might have to contemplate selling them at $0.50, though the tax man won't be nice.



Well... " Closer to 0.5000 than 0.7000 could be 0.5999 ". 

I too am amazed how some of my albeit small punts on US Markets are stable in a falling market. 

gg


----------



## Stockbailx

What's do you know and to be going on with the AUD/USD this Friday? After a week of slow momentum moving the AUD higher, throughout this session. And the AUD sitting on highs at present, what will the day bring...I can't say much about the economic front for the AUD besides a negative forecast for New Home Sales MOM JUL of 0.8% compared to a previous of 1.9%, later in the evening. This fact would exhaust the AUD today from highs, and should see the AUD retrace south.
I'm not very confident but this seems like a opportunity for a pending sell position, of 0.70812 looking for target 0.69414. This is my own analysis... But analyst say it will rise to to pivot point 0.7129 looking for target 0.7045, looking like a more probable position...Interesting to see how it pans out if there is to be any significant movement at all today...


----------



## Roller_1

Gee that chart hurts my brain


----------



## Stockbailx

A bit of a tough call is the AUD/USD today. Ranging around 0.703 & 0.699 mark. Economics looks positive with the Wage Price Index, concensus sounds positive, could go either way today. I'll be looking for a bull breakout today from that range yesterday...
Analysis suggest;


 Preference:The upside prevails as long as 0.6990 is support. Looking for 0.7079.


Alternative scenario:The downside breakout of 0.6990 would call for 0.6957 and 0.6938.


*Comment:*The RSI is above its neutrality area at 50. The MACD is positive and above its signal line. The configuration is positive. Moreover, the price is trading above both its 20 and 50 period moving average (respectively at 0.7012 and 0.7015).


----------



## Stockbailx

AUD/USD breakout  yesterday, with analysis suggesting a fall from 0.6990 to 0.6938. Morning price ranging on that mark. I took that position and made sum gains, hoping for further declines today, looking for the 0.6850 price. Should the AUD breakdown further, by passing pivot point 0.6901.
Analysis also suggest a bounce from 0.6901 calling for 0.6991...


----------



## Stockbailx

Where to, now for the AUD. It looks to be continuing south today, with a bit of a pattern brewing throughout the week, where you will have a day/night of declines, to be followed by a day of a sideways range, consolidating another day/night of declines. I called a week and a half ago that the AUD when it was at 0.70 range, will soon be sitting in the 0.67 range by the end of the month. 
Analysis has reconciled this and called for resistance to be @ 0.6951 pivot point looking for @ 0.6862 if not further south...


----------



## qldfrog

Stockybailz said:


> Where to, now for the AUD. It looks to be continuing south today, with a bit of a pattern brewing throughout the week, where you will have a day/night of declines, to be followed by a day of a sideways range, consolidating another day/night of declines. I called a week and a half ago that the AUD when it was at 0.70 range, will soon be sitting in the 0.67 range by the end of the month.
> Analysis has reconciled this and called for resistance to be @ 0.6951 pivot point looking for @ 0.6862 if not further south...
> 
> View attachment 145634



Btw, thanks @Stockybailz  for your posts.much interested/interesting


----------



## CityIndex

Stockybailz said:


> I called a week and a half ago that the AUD when it was at 0.70 range, will soon be sitting in the 0.67 range by the end of the month.
> Analysis has reconciled this and called for resistance to be @ 0.6951 pivot point looking for @ 0.6862 if not further south...



Comments from Fed officials, and the latest FOMC Minutes, appear to be the catalyst behind the US Dollar's overnight gains.

Yesterday's 48-year low AU unemployment print, combined with local wages and inflation data, could support the Aussie Dollar on expectations for another 50bps rate hike at the RBA's next meeting. However, the Fed's willingness to continue tightening aggressively if needed may result in sustained selling pressure on AUD/USD, and potentially spark a retest of the cluster of lows around 0.6970/50, as you highlighted.

All trading carries risk, but it will be interesting to see how this pair trades building up to the next RBA and Fed meetings.


----------



## Roller_1

I am looking for a bounce off of support at the blue line


----------



## Garpal Gumnut

Roller_1 said:


> I am looking for a bounce off of support at the blue line
> 
> 
> View attachment 145642



It is certainly bouncing off 0.06900 atm.

I'm hoping it will fall further. 

gg


----------



## Roller_1

Garpal Gumnut said:


> It is certainly bouncing off 0.06900 atm.
> 
> I'm hoping it will fall further.
> 
> gg




ffs was looking else where and didn't have alert set.


----------



## Stockbailx

Still looking at price 0.6901 as a place of support, should the AUD retrace to my earlier suggestion of pivot point 0.6951 where it could go either way but I'm still hoping for the AUD to fall further to 0.6852...?


----------



## Roller_1

Stockybailz said:


> Still looking at price 0.6901 as a place of support, should the AUD retrace to my earlier suggestion of pivot point 0.6951 where it could go either way but I'm still hoping for the AUD to fall further to 0.6852...?




Downside momentum seems to be slowing, if we can hold this level into the weekend may be a push-up to the redline next week. 

0.7022 could be a issue though 

\


----------



## Stockbailx

Roller_1 said:


> Downside momentum seems to be slowing, if we can hold this level into the weekend may be a push-up to the redline next week.
> 
> 0.7022 could be a issue though
> 
> \
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> View attachment 145666



I think you might be right, AUD appears well exhausted for further downturn? At the rate its going be lucky to see any significant movement until late in evening if any. I too say the AUD will bounce from here, Monday as you suggested to 0.7022...With the slow momentum, it makes it harder for analysis...


----------



## Stockbailx

Stockybailz said:


> I think you might be right, AUD appears well exhausted for further downturn? At the rate its going be lucky to see any significant movement until late in evening if any. I too say the AUD will bounce from here, Monday as you suggested to 0.7022...With the slow momentum, it makes it harder for analysis...



Well I'll be mistaken AUD still had more in tank to decline some more falling to 0.68725 yesterday after a strenuous day of slow momentum. I encourage it, but a little surprised, thinking the AUD is exhausted after 3 weeks of continues downturn from usual highs of 0.70 range. I don't know whats in store for the AU economic calendar, but nothing can save the AUD now.  Looking at the 4h chart the AUD appears locked in for even more downturn. One would expect a bounce from here into the week, meeting FIB support, but who knows. To be honest looking at the daily chart, I would only imagine further downturn, looking for 0.666 range. Symbolic number, definitely looking for 0.675 range.


----------



## Garpal Gumnut

Stockybailz said:


> Well I'll be mistaken AUD still had more in tank to decline some more falling to 0.68725 yesterday after a strenuous day of slow momentum. I encourage it, but a little surprised, thinking the AUD is exhausted after 3 weeks of continues downturn from usual highs of 0.70 range. I don't know whats in store for the AU economic calendar, but nothing can save the AUD now.  Looking at the 4h chart the AUD appears locked in for even more downturn. One would expect a bounce from here into the week, meeting FIB support, but who knows. To be honest looking at the daily chart, I would only imagine further downturn, looking for 0.666 range. Symbolic number, definitely looking for 0.675 range.
> 
> View attachment 145708
> 
> View attachment 145709



Unfortunately for the AUD/USD it is tied in the Gold/USD battle and the USD seems to be winning out as the most stable currency in a very unstable world, even against Gold. 

I only watch the AUD/USD in relation to gold price so I may be biased. 

Americans see the ASX as a quarry and imo the AUD will only strengthen convincingly beyond 0.07000 if commodities increase substantially in value AND the USD falls due to other factors.  

gg


----------



## Stockbailx

Interesting day for the AUD today?! Could go either way if any. Analyst are saying a rebound towards 0.6931 suggesting 0.6842 as pivot point. I concur but think if the AUD breaks below pivot point there's no stopping it, looking for 0.6793 based on a stronger USD.
For clarity I've put in a pending order @ 0.68806 Thinking that the AUD is exhausted from all the downturn and over due for rise?...


----------



## Stockbailx

Tough call for the AUD today? Expectations are for the AUD to rebound following recent downturn these past weeks, is a tough call. Analyst calling for further downturn from resistance @0.6902 looking for @6812. This appears the most probable senario. But personally I fell the USD is getting weaker, accessing the way forward for some upturn above 0.6902 looking for 0.6953. Only time will tell, interesting to see how it pans out?


----------



## Stockbailx

Changing my position on the AUD forcast...After siting price testing nearest term resistance of 0.68850 and retracing back down from there, has got me thinking with the slow momentum still in play, I would suggest the AUD to break support 0.68630 for further downturn if not range there and about that area as Analysis would suggest, looking for breakout either way...Imo


----------



## CityIndex

Stockybailz said:


> Changing my position on the AUD forcast...After siting price testing nearest term resistance of 0.68850 and retracing back down from there, has got me thinking with the slow momentum still in play, I would suggest the AUD to break support 0.68630 for further downturn if not range there and about that area as Analysis would suggest, looking for breakout either way...Imo



The pair closed flat yesterday, holding the cluster of support around 0.6870/50 during the last couple of sessions.

From a technical standpoint, this looks to be a nice pivot point, and it will be interesting to see if AUD/USD bounces from here, or breaks lower over the coming days.


----------



## Stockbailx

Having a real rally with the AUD today...Notice price is testing Analyst suggestion of 0.6902. So were to from here will the AUD retrace south from there as suggested looking for 0.6812 or current momentum carry on through looking for 0.6953. Interesting!


----------



## Roller_1

The levels I am watching for a reaction


----------



## Stockbailx

I don't think the momentum and volume support in there today for highs @ 0.695 range, but tomorrow looks another story, seeing a weakening USD on Trading Economics tomorrow. Making things interesting for the AUD...Standing by 0.6902 resistance should the AUD retrace...With that being said, would also be looking for a lower point of resistance tomorrow, say 0.69202...Imo


----------



## Stockbailx

Have notice the AUD has turned away from resistance 0.6902 or there a bouts. Everything going to plan. Look forward to see what this down swing retrace will give. Not confident but, Reaching out for 0.6812 but be happy with 0.6853 for the time being...Tomorrow be an eventful day looking for some upturn with resurgence...


----------



## Stockbailx

Stockybailz said:


> I don't think the momentum and volume support in there today for highs @ 0.695 range, but tomorrow looks another story, seeing a weakening USD on Trading Economics tomorrow. Making things interesting for the AUD...Standing by 0.6902 resistance should the AUD retrace...With that being said, would also be looking for a lower point of resistance tomorrow, say 0.69202...Imo



I'll be a monkeys uncle, both support and resistance were meet yesterday and earlier this morning with momentum regaining confidence and speeding up, based on what I think is a weakening USD. The AUD sore to resistance 0.695.
Analyst are seeing 0.6894 as pivot point, looking for 0.6986. That's a tough call but I don't see why not, considering the volosity the AUD should be moving at. Alternative scenario at a break below 0.6894 looking for 0.6841.
The AUD now sitting on 0.69202 as support. A bit suspect but I'm also encouraged by sudden highs from this point...


----------



## Roller_1

That level got tagged nicely overnight. Straight through that first one though. Might be trying to reclaim it now for another push up towards the upper redline.





View attachment 145855



Roller_1 said:


> The levels I am watching for a reaction
> 
> View attachment 145817


----------



## Stockbailx

Looks difficult for pivot point 0.6894 to be meet giving the influx of support 0.6910 bouncing of the 50ma. I would be encouraged by a break above near term resistance 0.69405 should see the bulls take control...Still looking for 0.6986 or higher should it break early...


----------



## Stockbailx

The US dollar fell against major G10 currencies as the risk appetite seems to recover despite the US weak economic data. Or “bad news” again becomes “good news” as this strengthens the odds for a “peak Fed” ahead of the key event later this week. Commodity currencies strongly rebounded. The Australian dollar jumped the most against the greenback, up 0.77% to 0.6928 this morning.


----------



## Stockbailx

AUD price skimming above suggested pivot point price of 0.6894


----------



## Stockbailx

How will the AUD measure up today? A bit of a mixed bag yesterday, with a lot of correlation between the highs and the lows with the AUD ending up settling in the 0.6905 range...Where to from here;
Analyst suggesting the the AUD will fall to as much to 0.6875 tough call considering I notice a lot of lower highs and lower lows, expecting the AUD to rebound to as high as 0.6967. Once again tough call, but I guess doable. Since looking at today's economics, I notice a weaker USD expected late in the evening.
I don't know what happened to all the hype of weaker USD this week, it doesn't appear to prevail. Any luck, find out late in the evening early morning?


----------



## Stockbailx

Took the liberty place a position just above near term resistance of 0.6922 and watched the AUD rise this morning, looking for 0.6967 encouraged by analyst suggestions. Also be inclined to be asking for further highs should the USD weaken further as forecast, later in the evening, very ambitious front,  looking for highs of a new resistance @0.70415...


----------



## Stockbailx

Stockybailz said:


> Took the liberty place a position just above near term resistance of 0.6922 and watched the AUD rise this morning, looking for 0.6967 encouraged by analyst suggestions. Also be inclined to be asking for further highs should the USD weaken further as forecast, later in the evening, very ambitious front, looking for highs of a new resistance @0.70415...




The AUD powering upturn yesterday putting wind in the sails for investors, I didn't get all of my position filled looking for 0.704. I think this is because the USD actually strengthened throughout the night, but that's just me being optimistic and looking at the economic options. Where to now for the AUD;
Analyst suggesting it will bounce further today,  As long as 0.6945 is support look for 0.7036...
Alternative Scenario, Below 0.6945, expect 0.6912 and 0.6892...
I must admit I'm a bit of a skeptic on this and prefer the alternative scenario, because I think the USD is regaining confidence and looking stronger today and AUD will not be able to handle it?


----------



## qldfrog

Stockybailz said:


> The AUD powering upturn yesterday putting wind in the sails for investors, I didn't get all of my position filled looking for 0.704. I think this is because the USD actually strengthened throughout the night, but that's just me being optimistic and looking at the economic options. Where to now for the AUD;
> Analyst suggesting it will bounce further today,  As long as 0.6945 is support look for 0.7036...
> Alternative Scenario, Below 0.6945, expect 0.6912 and 0.6892...
> I must admit I'm a bit of a skeptic on this and prefer the alternative scenario, because I think the USD is regaining confidence and looking stronger today and AUD will not be able to handle it?
> 
> View attachment 145954



Well i am happy that the aud definitely went down and slashed my week losses


----------



## Stockbailx

I eventually got in on the action, late that night well past my bed time, @ 0.6945 after a long day of deliberation finally the AUD fell to the USD pressure as forecast. I don't know what to say about next week except there would be more downward pressure on the AUD....
Watching the lower highs lower lows closely.


----------



## Stockbailx

Interesting outlook for the AUD this morning, Analyst suggesting the RSI is oversold there for looking for further downturn.

The downside prevails as long as 0.6919 is resistance.

Alternative scenario:Above 0.6919, look for 0.6951 and 0.6971.

The RSI is trading below 30. This could mean that either the pair is in a lasting downtrend or just oversold and that therefore a rebound could shape (look for bullish divergence in this case). The MACD is below its signal line and negative. The configuration is negative. Moreover, the price is trading under both its 20 and 50 period moving average (respectively at 0.6931 and 0.6953).


----------



## KevinBB

And ... my price analysis, a combination of moving average crossovers, breakouts and carry, is still negative. About 50% confidence.
Happy to be short for the moment.
KH


----------



## qldfrog

KevinBB said:


> And ... my price analysis, a combination of moving average crossovers, breakouts and carry, is still negative. About 50% confidence.
> Happy to be short for the moment.
> KH



I would say if the market crashed the AUD will follow and I would so put my bet at a temporary USD surge=>68c target soon in my opinion, time will tell, I have a bit of Grandfather USD play  (ETF USD) as well as a USD portfolio and so far comfortable with that.
Interesting week ahead


----------



## Garpal Gumnut

I cannot see the AUD holding against the USD. 

The next real support/resistance is a bit further down around 0.6700




gg


----------



## Stockbailx

AUD reaching support 0.6850  ranging towards 0.6870 I suspect a day of this with indicators suggesting high MOMENTUM trying to push the AUD Higher but with a lower RSI keeping the AUD lower. Economics for me reads a weakened AUD against a stronger USD tomorrow. And for the week... Interesting to see what price projects from hear, as it seems where looking at further downturn...The finance market is crashing?


----------



## Stockbailx

AUD traveling a bit higher yesterday, after it was suspected of a market crash. Momentum running high. The RSI is above 50. The MACD is below its signal line and positive. The pair could retrace. Moreover, the price is above its 20 and 50 period moving average (respectively at 0.6899 and 0.6877). a bit of a tough call to read the AUD today...Analysis suggests;

Preference:As long as 0.6870 is support look for 0.6960.

Alternative scenario:The downside breakout of 0.6870 would call for 0.6837 and 0.6818.

Must admit I like the look of the alternative scenario, because what goes up must come down, definitely suspect some retrace later in the evening if not first thing tomorrow morning...Only time will tell, Interesting to see how it pans out?


----------



## Stockbailx

Making a different call for the AUD.... On sitting the present momentum of the AUD I'm engouraged by a pivot point of 0.6950 to watch the AUD retrace to as low as 0.6866. Keeping a watch on the present lower highs lower lows that are having an influence on trend. Early day, But who knows?


----------



## Stockbailx

AUD a bit of a mixed bag at present, economics looks like it could go either way. Analysis suggest further downturn for most of the day perhaps with some bounce later in the evening. The RSI is below its neutrality area at 50. The MACD is negative and below its signal line. The configuration is negative. Moreover, the price stands below its 20 and 50 period moving average (respectively at 0.6888 and 0.6898). 

 Preference:The downside prevails as long as 0.6888 is resistance.

Alternative scenario:The upside breakout of 0.6888, would call for 0.6923 and 0.6943.


----------



## Roller_1

If we push down to the pink line I am going to look for a pop off of there


----------



## Stockbailx

Roller_1 said:


> If we push down to the pink line I am going to look for a pop off of there
> 
> View attachment 146149




Looking at further strengthening of the USD later in the evening, so its hard to call but an interesting prospect for the time being. I see a day range of high momentum to be followed by a calapse later in the evening. Interesting call, good to see how it all plays out?


----------



## CityIndex

Stockybailz said:


> Looking at further strengthening of the USD later in the evening, so its hard to call but an interesting prospect for the time being. I see a day range of high momentum to be followed by a calapse later in the evening. Interesting call, good to see how it all plays out?



This is an interesting analysis. What do you see fueling the USD strength today?

From a technical perspective, the greenbacks rally is showing signs of stalling as DXY continues to face selling pressure above 109, despite the Fed’s signals for a continuation of tighter monetary policy.

Of course, there is still key US jobs data due this week, so perhaps a stronger-than-expected print will be the catalyst to help DXY break to a new 20-year high.


----------



## Stockbailx

Stockybailz said:


> Looking at further strengthening of the USD later in the evening, so its hard to call but an interesting prospect for the time being. I see a day range of high momentum to be followed by a calapse later in the evening. Interesting call, good to see how it all plays out?



Should see this push downward in 2-3 hours time lunch time at best. Couldn't see the AUD bouncing until late evening, looking forward to tomorrows highs...Have every confidence in this I really don't think the AUD has enough confidence to push up given today's economic range...


----------



## Stockbailx

CityIndex said:


> This is an interesting analysis. What do you see fueling the USD strength today?
> 
> From a technical perspective, the greenbacks rally is showing signs of stalling as DXY continues to face selling pressure above 109, despite the Fed’s signals for a continuation of tighter monetary policy.
> 
> Of course, there is still key US jobs data due this week, so perhaps a stronger-than-expected print will be the catalyst to help DXY break to a new 20-year high.



 Surprised to see the bounce towards resistance 0.6888. The USD should rally stronger from this point, looking for future lows. Although I must admit the AUD does appear exhausted at the time being. Can't quite put me finger on it but I can't see the AUD breaking out above resistance 0.6888...


----------



## CityIndex

Stockybailz said:


> Surprised to see the bounce towards resistance 0.6888. The USD should rally stronger from this point, looking for future lows. Although I must admit the AUD does appear exhausted at the time being. Can't quite put me finger on it but I can't see the AUD breaking out above resistance 0.6888...



Aussie miners like BHP and Rio Tinto converting USD into AUD for dividend payments could also be a factor helping the pair hold support around 0.6850. However, risk-off sentiment and the pullback in commodity prices does limit the potential upside for AUD/USD.


----------



## Stockbailx

CityIndex said:


> Aussie miners like BHP and Rio Tinto converting USD into AUD for dividend payments could also be a factor helping the pair hold support around 0.6850. However, risk-off sentiment and the pullback in commodity prices does limit the potential upside for AUD/USD.



That's good to hear, its a bit difficult to be confident, looking in from the outside. Where as you would have the inside intel giving you more transparency into the situation. i must say thank-you @CityIndex for correspondence...


----------



## Stockbailx

Stockybailz said:


> Should see this push downward in 2-3 hours time lunch time at best. Couldn't see the AUD bouncing until late evening, looking forward to tomorrows highs...Have every confidence in this I really don't think the AUD has enough confidence to push up given today's economic range...



More downward pressure on the AUD today, much like yesterdays mixed bag. I see a stale mate situation with the AUD/USD today with both USD and the AUD in the red on economic front. For me Analysis Suggests there could be a  push down towards 0.677 but the AUD would have something to say about that. To be watching the AUD/USD virtually track sideways again today...


----------



## Telamelo

Enjoying the analysis/discussion here as want AUD to capitulate leading up to 5th September (the lower the better) - in turn to boost dividend payout $$ on my BHP shares lol


----------



## Stockbailx

Telamelo said:


> Enjoying the analysis/discussion here as want AUD to capitulate leading up to 5th September (the lower the better) - in turn to boost dividend payout $$ on my BHP shares lol



I think you might be in luck, looking at the economics if that's any thing to go bye. The AUD doesn't really gain any resistance, until the start of next week Monday 5th Sept as you said. Even then I think it still under a lot of pressure and may lack in confidence...


----------



## Roller_1

Roller_1 said:


> If we push down to the pink line I am going to look for a pop off of there
> 
> View attachment 146149




A little push up off of that level yesterday going into the closed but not much really. I would be looking at the next level of support down around .68085


----------



## Roller_1

Roller_1 said:


> A little push up off of that level yesterday going into the closed but not much really. I would be looking at the next level of support down around .68085
> 
> View attachment 146224




Got the drop and the pop. If it will  hold is the big question. I'm out though


----------



## Stockbailx

Here's a look at the AUD/USD in all it's glory since late NOV 21. Can only tell you one thing that things aren't promising. looking forward to next weeks forecast  with the RBA Interest Rate Decision plus things looking a bit more positive. In the long run it looks doomed, since the ca-lapse of early April 22, lower highs, lower lows?...


----------



## Stockbailx

Keeping an watch on the lower highs, lower lows situation, I'm not surprised to see the AUD forecast for further lows today, hopefully to improve on Monday but time will tell. Analysis suggests;

The RSI is below 50. The MACD is negative and below its signal line. The configuration is negative. Moreover, the price is trading under both its 20 and 50 period moving average (respectively at 0.6800 and 0.6816).

Preference:The downside prevails as long as 0.6814 is resistance. Looking for 0.6719.

Alternative scenario:Above 0.6814, look for 0.6848 and 0.6868.


----------



## Roller_1

I am watching the 085 level again but this time as resistance. If we get up there looking for a fade down towards the shaded zone


----------



## Stockbailx

A tough call for the AUD today. In what looks to be choppy conditions, economics looks positive for the AUD. But Analyst a calling for future downturn of pivot point 0.6836,,,
The RSI is below 50. The MACD is positive and below its signal line. The MACD must penetrate its zero line to expect further downside. Moreover, the pair is trading under its 20 period moving average (0.6818) but above its 50 period moving average (0.6802).
Could go either way?

 Preference:Target 0.6739.

Alternative scenario:Above 0.6836, look for 0.6870 and 0.6891.


----------



## Garpal Gumnut

Stockybailz said:


> A tough call for the AUD today. In what looks to be choppy conditions, economics looks positive for the AUD. But Analyst a calling for future downturn of pivot point 0.6836,,,
> The RSI is below 50. The MACD is positive and below its signal line. The MACD must penetrate its zero line to expect further downside. Moreover, the pair is trading under its 20 period moving average (0.6818) but above its 50 period moving average (0.6802).
> Could go either way?
> 
> Preference:Target 0.6739.
> 
> Alternative scenario:Above 0.6836, look for 0.6870 and 0.6891.
> 
> View attachment 146352



I agree it will be tough for the AUD today.

More though from fundamentals although your TA seems reasonable on the face of it. 

We will see 0.6700 or lower soon imo.

A v. strong USD. China still locked down. Russia going the full Nazi and looking at a v. poor Aftermath, and Europe as usual a bloodthirsty mob of self interest feeling the chill.

gg


----------



## Stockbailx

Didn't see that coming the AUD falling to a new low of 0.6777 first thing this morning. i thought it would be choppy but not to that extent. Now on the rebound as the AUD has tough conditions ahead...


----------



## Roller_1

Currently short from the blue line around .67980 taken some off here, longer target is around .67700


----------



## Stockbailx

0.6739 still a target but will it go further or rebound from there? There's bound to be some sort of significant bounce soon!


----------



## Roller_1

A high-volume push down through 720 would be nice. Tightened up my stop now that we're getting close. I have my target at 725

I think if that shaded area holds it will be a good place for long's, possible decent bounce from there


----------



## Stockbailx

Testing support  and looking to break through and with the lower highs, lower lows, situation in play you might well get your target!


----------



## Stockbailx

Couldn't break through support, looking for the AUD to push through near term resistance indicating a breakout move or will it range to a different point in time. Seeking an upward push in momentum?


----------



## Roller_1

Stockybailz said:


> Couldn't break through support, looking for the AUD to push through near term resistance indicating a breakout move or will it range to a different point in time. Seeking an upward push in momentum?




I still think down, would like too see the shaded bit tested for conformation. although the recent low is pretty close


----------



## Roller_1

That resistance held up nicely again. One thing I have noticed on the AUD is that resistance seems to hold more than once. Normally get a few bounces off of it. Once again taken half off here (a bit higher) targeting around the 725 level


----------



## Stockbailx

Quite day for the AUD yesterday, after early morning turbulence ranging sideways all day into this morning. I think it;s brewing for something big, One would suggest a strong rebound high is on the cards, RBA Interest Rate Decision is today and predicted to push the AUD higher unlike the previous rate hike. Analyst Suggest;
The RSI is above its neutrality area at 50. The MACD is above its signal line and positive. The configuration is positive. Moreover, the price is above its 20 and 50 period moving average (respectively at 0.6796 and 0.6794).


 Preference:The upside prevails as long as 0.6770 is support.

Alternative scenario:Below 0.6770, expect 0.6735 and 0.6715.


----------



## Roller_1

Stockybailz said:


> Quite day for the AUD yesterday, after early morning turbulence ranging sideways all day into this morning. I think it;s brewing for something big, One would suggest a strong rebound high is on the cards, RBA Interest Rate Decision is today and predicted to push the AUD higher unlike the previous rate hike. Analyst Suggest;
> The RSI is above its neutrality area at 50. The MACD is above its signal line and positive. The configuration is positive. Moreover, the price is above its 20 and 50 period moving average (respectively at 0.6796 and 0.6794).
> 
> 
> Preference:The upside prevails as long as 0.6770 is support.
> 
> Alternative scenario:Below 0.6770, expect 0.6735 and 0.6715.
> 
> View attachment 146398




US labour day on monday so everything was dead


----------



## Roller_1

I am looking for a test of the accumulation area around .68000 if this holds then a push-up towards .68450 would be my target. Momentum is still to the downside obviously so this is probably a lower percentage play if it pulls back


----------



## peter2

I'm predicting that it'll move at 14:30pm Syd time today.


----------



## Stockbailx

Roller_1 said:


> I am looking for a test of the accumulation area around .68000 if this holds then a push-up towards .68450 would be my target. Momentum is still to the downside obviously so this is probably a lower percentage play if it pulls back
> 
> 
> View attachment 146408



I think you sound about right, but the RBA rate hike should it happen, would be putting a lot of pressure on the market, much like the last hike the AUD fell. A bit wary of this happening again. But with that been said and being a betting man I'm optimistic of highs @0.6963 to fall under pressure @0.6942...Interesting day ahead, Hold on faith of a good outcome heading north...


----------



## Roller_1

Stockybailz said:


> RBA rate hike




Will be fun


----------



## Stockbailx

Given the underwhelming pressure these consecutive rate hikes are putting on the market, you think the responsible rate hike would be 0.25% - 0.35% rather then the forecast 0.50%. A lot of people really paying there bills of late. Well find out at 2.30pm should a rate hike happen?


----------



## CityIndex

Stockybailz said:


> Given the underwhelming pressure these consecutive rate hikes are putting on the market, you think the responsible rate hike would be 0.25% - 0.35% rather then the forecast 0.50%. A lot of people really paying there bills of late. Well find out at 2.30pm should a rate hike happen?



Another rate hike is widely expected, but the question remains how much.

Back in June, the RBA noted that the neutral rate is probably around 2.5%, and have since also forecasted inflation to surge beyond 7% this year. This would suggest a need to continue tightening beyond the neutral rate to bring inflation back within the target range. With the cash rate currently sitting at 1.85%, they may likely elect for another 50bps move today, and then begin to reassess the pace of their hiking cycle next month.

However, if the Board does in fact opt for a tamer move today, AUD/USD begin to pare today’s gains, especially given the expectations for another 75bps hike from the Fed later this month.

All trading carries risk, but it will be really interesting to see what the RBA decides, and what their outlook is for the upcoming months.


----------



## Stockbailx

Creepy the AUD doesn't know which way to turn, UP DOWN like a yo-yo. Certainly under pressure! Looking at the downside prevail, interesting to see if it re-numerates this move come the RBA Interest Rate Decision in 30 minutes. If so gives me an good impression of future movement. Good luck!


----------



## InsvestoBoy

Couldn't help myself today and got out the old 1min chart today for a bit of pre RBA fun.

Trading A6U22, nothing too crazy but managed a few ticks (log from the bottom up), +5, +2, +1.5, +2


----------



## Roller_1

If my earlier thesis is correct... Cue long rip to .68450... Goodluck lol


----------



## Stockbailx

Stockybailz said:


> Creepy the AUD doesn't know which way to turn, UP DOWN like a yo-yo. Certainly under pressure! Looking at the downside prevail, interesting to see if it re-numerates this move come the RBA Interest Rate Decision in 30 minutes. If so gives me an good impression of future movement. Good luck!



Come as a bit of surprise, the AUD hasn't taken to the RBA Rate Hike. Stalling sideways with no real re-action. To take a spin-off the ABC News, they say the US has beaten us to the punch putting increased pressure on the AUD....No confidence in the AUD looking into its future coming of a 7 week low. Will it ever find its ground in support and rebound into new resistance levels?


----------



## KevinBB

Stockybailz said:


> Come as a bit of surprise, the AUD hasn't taken to the RBA Rate Hike. Stalling sideways with no real re-action. To take a spin-off the ABC News, they say the US has beaten us to the punch putting increased pressure on the AUD....No confidence in the AUD looking into its future coming of a 7 week low. Will it ever find its ground in support and rebound into new resistance levels?



No real reaction is telling me that the RBA has acted exactly as the market expected. Hopefully we'll have more of the same when the RBA next releases it's Cash RateTarget next month.

KH


----------



## Stockbailx

KevinBB said:


> No real reaction is telling me that the RBA has acted exactly as the market expected. Hopefully we'll have more of the same when the RBA next releases it's Cash RateTarget next month.
> 
> KH



Is that good thing or a bad thing?..Looking at current market conditions! (bad thing)


----------



## Stockbailx

Just when you think that things couldn't get any worse for the AUD. Taking a nose dive after Interest Rate Hike, showing just how much the AUD is under selling pressure. Long overdue for a correction I say, but when will that happen; Analyst Suggested,
The RSI is below 30. It could either mean that the pair is in a lasting downtrend or just oversold and therefore bound to retrace (look for bullish divergence in this case). The MACD is below its signal line and negative. The configuration is negative. Moreover, the price is trading under both its 20 and 50 period moving average (respectively at 0.6751 and 0.6781).


 Preference:The downside prevails as long as 0.6761 is resistance.

Alternative scenario:The upside breakout of 0.6761, would call for 0.6795 and 0.6815.


----------



## qldfrog

Stockybailz said:


> Just when you think that things couldn't get any worse for the AUD. Taking a nose dive after Interest Rate Hike, showing just how much the AUD is under selling pressure. Long overdue for a correction I say, but when will that happen; Analyst Suggested,
> The RSI is below 30. It could either mean that the pair is in a lasting downtrend or just oversold and therefore bound to retrace (look for bullish divergence in this case). The MACD is below its signal line and negative. The configuration is negative. Moreover, the price is trading under both its 20 and 50 period moving average (respectively at 0.6751 and 0.6781).
> 
> 
> Preference:The downside prevails as long as 0.6761 is resistance.
> 
> Alternative scenario:The upside breakout of 0.6761, would call for 0.6795 and 0.6815.
> 
> 
> View attachment 146450



I look at the year trend and will sell around 66c and not all of parcel..but not doing daily trade


----------



## Roller_1

I've got .67180ish as a bounce zone if we get down there


----------



## Garpal Gumnut

Garpal Gumnut said:


> I agree it will be tough for the AUD today.
> 
> More though from fundamentals although your TA seems reasonable on the face of it.
> 
> We will see 0.6700 or lower soon imo.
> 
> A v. strong USD. China still locked down. Russia going the full Nazi and looking at a v. poor Aftermath, and Europe as usual a bloodthirsty mob of self interest feeling the chill.
> 
> gg



As I mentioned above I felt the AUD might find support at 0.6700

Looking at last night's forex action this would seem to be optimistic. 

This is very good for Gold, so even as Gold retreats it keeps its value in AUD.

If Gold takes off and the AUD stays low or goes lower, then it will be Christmas on a stick. 

gg


----------



## KevinBB

Stockybailz said:


> Is that good thing or a bad thing?..Looking at current market conditions! (bad thing)



I'm not too worried about the market. Its the old "hip pocket nerve" which gets all my attention. In my mind, its a good thing for the RBA to keep raising rates. I like the idea of being able to take some of the risk out of the futures market and putting it back into term deposits.

As far as AUD / USD goes, I have a short futures position in M6A (AUD - from 0.6883), which was added to last night. Its all systematic, a combination of moving averages, breakout and carry. I don't target an exit price, just hold the position until the system is ready to reverse. Its only numbers, so no pretty charts to look at, but, as I said  a few days ago, I'm comfortable being short AUD.

KH


----------



## KevinBB

Garpal Gumnut said:


> This is very good for Gold, so even as Gold retreats it keeps its value in AUD.



Gold, in USD, is still trending down. No predictions of the future, I just follow the trend.

KH


----------



## Roller_1

reclaimed that important level. Will take some buyers stepping up to stop the momentum though


----------



## Stockbailx

The AUD a bit overdue, for a correction and to go north. Balance of trade, Imports, Exports results are in today and it all looks positive, they say there is a boom on Imports at the moment. And this should excel the AUD higher, plus the US market looks quite. Analyst have suggested a rebound north off support 0.6731.  A fair call giving todays conditions...
The RSI is above 50. The MACD is above its signal line and positive. The configuration is positive. Moreover, the price is above its 20 and 50 period moving average (respectively at 0.6731 and 0.6725).


Preference:The upside prevails as long as 0.6731 is support.

Alternative scenario:Below 0.6731, expect 0.6696 and 0.6676.


----------



## Stockbailx

After Yesterday's day of uncertainty, the AUD sits perched at the bottom end of the scale, looking for some up turn in momentum. It doesn't appear to keen in this, but with a weaker looking USD today it might prevail...Analyst have suggested 0.6718 as a pivot point...

The RSI is above its neutrality area at 50. The MACD is positive and above its signal line. The configuration is positive. Moreover, the price is above its 20 and 50 period moving average (respectively at 0.6742 and 0.6744).


Preference:The upside prevails as long as 0.6718 is support. Looking for 0.6814.


Alternative scenario:Below 0.6718, expect 0.6683 and 0.6663.


----------



## Stockbailx

AUD regaining confidence and momentum on a high yesterday, much the same expected for today. Not much on the economic front for AUD/USD. Analysis suggests highs again with 0.6808 support, looking for 0.6909. A fair analysis considering the robust form the AUD has taken up.

The RSI is above 50. The MACD is positive and below its signal line. The pair could retrace. Moreover, the price is below its 20 period moving average (0.6841) but above its 50 period moving average (0.6823).


Preference:As long as 0.6808 is support look for 0.6909.


Alternative scenario:Below 0.6808, expect 0.6773 and 0.6752.


----------



## Stockbailx

What's in it for the AUD today. Analyst suggesting further upturn from pivot point support of 0.6848 looking for 0.6944. Not much in it as far as movement goes. But suspect the alternative scenario below 0.6848. I chance it, that it's a stronger USD.

The RSI is above its neutrality area at 50. The MACD is positive and below its signal line. The pair could retrace. Moreover, the price is below its 20 period moving average (0.6881) but above its 50 period moving average (0.6862).


Preference:As long as 0.6848 is support look for 0.6944.


Alternative scenario:Below 0.6848, expect 0.6813 and 0.6792.


----------



## qldfrog

Well happy to have bought a few USD (etf) yesterday and hope none of the daily traders here got burnt as outch


I got aware of inflation data release calendar thanks to the forum so thank you


----------



## noirua

The AUD had fallen 2.4% against the USD about 1 minute ago.


----------



## qldfrog

noirua said:


> The AUD had fallen 2.4% against the USD about 1 minute ago.



So USD uberall
And the worst is:
This is the supposedly leader of the US








						‘Mental decline’: Internet roasts Joe Biden after he ‘got lost on stage’
					

US President Joe Biden has been mocked online after appearing to become "lost on stage" following a speech he delivered to reignite his Cancer Moonshot initiative.  Mr Biden spoke at the John F. Kennedy Presidential Library and Museum in Boston on Monday, local time.  The speech comes on the...




					www.skynews.com.au
				



..,


----------



## Stockbailx

Stockybailz said:


> But suspect the alternative scenario below 0.6848. I chance it, that it's a stronger USD.



AUD would appear to be on downward spiral, after yesterdays fall from mid term highs. Still looking at the lower highs lower lows situation that seems obsolete, this pattern appears immanent due to US Inflation figures and hikes, boosting over the AUD. Analyst suggest that more downside prevails as long as 0.6761 is resistance. Pressure in on the AUD.

The RSI is trading below 30. This could mean that either the pair is in a lasting downtrend or just oversold and that therefore a rebound could shape (look for bullish divergence in this case). The MACD is below its signal line and negative. The configuration is negative. Moreover, the price stands below its 20 and 50 period moving average (respectively at 0.6801 and 0.6850).


Our preference:The downside prevails as long as 0.6761 is resistance. look for 0.6663


Alternative scenario:Above 0.6761, look for 0.6795 and 0.6815.


----------



## KevinBB

yes, but ... even though I don't discretionary trade, and my futures system still wants to be short AUD futures ..

on both your 30 minute chart, and this daily chart, MACD is about to go positive. Also, longish term support is just below where we are now. Its either going to crash through support, or rise quickly again. A coin toss ..




KH


----------



## Stockbailx

KevinBB said:


> yes, but ... even though I don't discretionary trade, and my futures system still wants to be short AUD futures ..
> 
> on both your 30 minute chart, and this daily chart, MACD is about to go positive. Also, longish term support is just below where we are now. Its either going to crash through support, or rise quickly again. A coin toss ..
> 
> View attachment 146798
> 
> 
> KH



Fair Call!
Longer range charts are certainly the way to go. But for today I can only see a commitment to lower lows, sinking through and ca lapsing past support.  but hard to say, can go either way, I'm looking to go short, below support, should price meet short target of 0.6663. The AUD would be looking to go long for future reference. Just in case took a long position above 0.6761.
If a weekly chart was any to go by momentum is short by any means. looking for the lower low, to retrace long, tomorrow...


----------



## DaveTrade

@KevinBB I agree with you, the direction it takes from here is not clear at the moment. I offer some of my charts as another way to view the situation;


----------



## qldfrog

DaveTrade said:


> @KevinBB I agree with you, the direction it takes from here is not clear at the moment. I offer some of my charts as another way to view the situation;
> 
> View attachment 146802
> 
> View attachment 146803
> 
> View attachment 146804



Interesting chat, as a result i offliad 1/2 of my usd etf bought yesterday, locking profit and hope for even further fall of aud tomorrow


----------



## InsvestoBoy

KevinBB said:


> yes, but ... even though I don't discretionary trade, and my futures system still wants to be short AUD futures ..
> 
> on both your 30 minute chart, and this daily chart, MACD is about to go positive. Also, longish term support is just below where we are now. Its either going to crash through support, or rise quickly again. A coin toss ..
> 
> 
> KH




A bit more of the "if it goes up it's going up and if it goes down it's going down" TA eh?

To me the main observation is that AUD and other commdolls diverging by not making new lows compared to currencies from commodity importer countries like JPY, EUR, GBP that can't help but make new lows. Will it be enough to hold them up? 🤷‍♂️


----------



## KevinBB

InsvestoBoy said:


> Will it be enough to hold them up?



Don't know. All my systems (combination of moving average and breakout) tell me to be short anything against the USD, and the systems have been saying that for quite a while. Apart from the fact that these type of trend following systems (MA and BO) have a history of give-back when the trend stutters, goes sideways or changes, I'm happy short.

We'll soon see how long my happiness lasts.

KH


----------



## Stockbailx

AUD went sideways yesterday after deliberating which way it was going all day, currently on a high ranging low. Be looking for a breakout today. Analyst have suggested a break towards 0.6798 bouncing of pivot point 0.6702 a far call but if it breaks long I might be expecting something higher  say 0.68440. Should momentum pick up,. Might be a long day for that to happen? I'm a bit skeptical on going long and think it may well be short again below 0.6702 looking for 0.6648...

The RSI is below its neutrality area at 50. The MACD is above its signal line and positive. The break above the 50 area on the RSI would call for further upside. Moreover, the pair is trading under its 20 period moving average (0.6737) but above its 50 period moving average (0.6733).


Our preference:Rise to 0.6798.


Alternative scenario:The downside breakout of 0.6702 would call for 0.6669 and 0.6648.


----------



## Stockbailx

Following on from my last post, I've come with an assumption that with analyst suggesting a rise to 0.6798 after going short to 0.6702 acting as pivot point. And with the slow momentum at present, and pressure the AUD is under, giving the economic inflation rate USD, that 0.6798 would act as a new pivot point to go short, late in the evening, looking for 0.6669. Sited by the orange line?


----------



## DaveTrade

It's looking like it may just go straight down now.


----------



## Stockbailx

DaveTrade said:


> It's looking like it may just go straight down now.



It's on the goee but I'll give it time a day before it collapses from exhaustion?


----------



## Stockbailx

AUD collapsing yesterday on a spiral south, due to inflation pressure it would seem. Running on higher momentum, but low RSI, how long will it keep this up (crash). Looking for shorter target 0.6630'.         Alternative scenario: Above 0.6726 resistance?

The RSI is below 50. The MACD is negative and below its signal line. The configuration is negative. Moreover, the price is trading under both its 20 and 50 period moving average (respectively at 0.6720 and 0.6739).


----------



## CityIndex

AUD/USD currently probing the July lows around 0.6680 as Gov Lowe's speech gets underway. 

Should be interesting to see how the market reacts, and whether hawkish comments can help the pair hold support at this level.


----------



## Garpal Gumnut

CityIndex said:


> AUD/USD currently probing the July lows around 0.6680 as Gov Lowe's speech gets underway.
> 
> Should be interesting to see how the market reacts, and whether hawkish comments can help the pair hold support at this level.



Indeed. 

However the genie is out of the bottle and nobody knows what will happen or where any index, commodity, rate or asset will go. 

Chaos.

I'll just go against the panic, as panic is contagious, and I would hate to catch anything going down. 

gg


----------



## CityIndex

Garpal Gumnut said:


> However the genie is out of the bottle and nobody knows what will happen or where any index, commodity, rate or asset will go.




A lot of markets look like they could be in for some choppy, range-bound trading over the near-term as a variety of factors affecting the global recession outlook continue to develop. 

Of course, as you said nobody knows what will happen. All trading carries risk, and while there could be a bounce after the recent sell-off, this move could just as easily extend lower if sentiment continues to deteriorate.


----------



## Stockbailx

Has the AUD compounded enough support to break near term resistance 0.6723 later in the day, if not this morning. Analyst have suggested for this to happen providing 0.6681 is support. Sticking with the theme of Inflation pressure, I'm a bit wary to go long and be keeping a close watch on a break below 0.6681 support to go short. Or will there be further sideways ranging for the day ?

The RSI is above its neutrality area at 50. The MACD is above its signal line and positive. The configuration is positive. Moreover, the price is above its 20 and 50 period moving average (respectively at 0.6695 and 0.6696).


----------



## Stockbailx

Picking up the potential for a further sell to go short. The strength of the AUD pairs deviating sideways is shallow and wants to fall unless divergence north. That appears unlikely looking at the 1hr chart analysis suggest a collapse south in the near term stay with the inflation pressure...


----------



## eskys

From what I can see, it's now .6699 down .31%


----------



## DaveTrade

The following is straight from the Barchart website:

"The Barchart Technical Opinion rating is a *100% Sell* with a *Strengthening short term outlook* on maintaining the current direction.

Long term indicators fully support a continuation of the trend.

The market is in highly oversold territory. Beware of a trend reversal."


----------



## qldfrog

DaveTrade said:


> The following is straight from the Barchart website:
> 
> "The Barchart Technical Opinion rating is a *100% Sell* with a *Strengthening short term outlook* on maintaining the current direction.
> 
> Long term indicators fully support a continuation of the trend.
> 
> The market is in highly oversold territory. Beware of a trend reversal."



Sorry Dave:
100% sell of ?? AUD/USD Sell so 100% AUD is going to fall? or the opposite..
Not playing smartarse but here i miss the context
But very happy to have discovered that site after your post:








						Advanced Search - Barchart.com
					

Barchart.com Inc. is the leading provider of real-time or delayed intraday stock and commodities charts and quotes. Keep tabs on your portfolio, search for stocks, commodities, or mutual funds with screeners, customizable chart indicators and technical analysis.




					www.barchart.com
				



If you select opinion, you get the various info which i find quite useful


----------



## DaveTrade

qldfrog said:


> Sorry Dave:
> 100% sell of ?? AUD/USD Sell so 100% AUD is going to fall? or the opposite..



Yes this is the AUD/USD pair that they are talking about here.



qldfrog said:


> But very happy to have discovered that site after your post:



I thought it was very a well known site. I find it very good for all sorts of info, it takes a while to find all it's secrets, I keep finding more useful info as I look deeper into the site.


----------



## Stockbailx

Yesterday the AUD met support, 0.6681 to rebound long as suggested no quite meeting it's take profit target but a rebound none the less. Today Analyst are calling for another retracement south to as far as 0.6693. This is a difficult call if the AUD was to go long as expected. I would place my support pivot point at 0.6706 should there be a resurgence. Alternative Scenario I would go short below 0.6706... Interesting to watch and see how it pans out!..

The RSI is above 50. The MACD is positive and above its signal line. The configuration is positive. Moreover, the price is trading above both its 20 and 50 period moving average (respectively at 0.6696 and 0.6702).


----------



## Stockbailx

The AUD in a jig saw pattern, contempt  to go side by side in a healthy sized range. edging north,  So one one would only permit it to go long today after going south yesterday. Rebound towards 0.6764. suggested to take from pivot point 0.6657. Alternative Scenario below 0.6657, look for 0.6598...

The RSI is below its neutrality area at 50. The MACD is above its signal line and negative. The configuration is mixed. Moreover, the price is trading under both its 20 and 50 period moving average (respectively at 0.6695 and 0.6711).


----------



## DaveTrade

Stockybailz said:


> The AUD in a jig saw pattern, contempt  to go side by side in a healthy sized range. edging north,  So one one would only permit it to go long today after going south yesterday. Rebound towards 0.6764. suggested to take from pivot point 0.6657. Alternative Scenario below 0.6657, look for 0.6598...
> 
> The RSI is below its neutrality area at 50. The MACD is above its signal line and negative. The configuration is mixed. Moreover, the price is trading under both its 20 and 50 period moving average (respectively at 0.6695 and 0.6711).
> 
> 
> 
> View attachment 147050



Yes all the markets are waiting for the Fed meeting tonight 4am, then they will react and then settle in to whatever comes next.


----------



## CityIndex

DaveTrade said:


> Yes all the markets are waiting for the Fed meeting tonight 4am, then they will react and then settle in to whatever comes next.



It's continuing to test support around 0.6680, which is likely to be a key pivot point having held as the previous low  in July. 

After last week's US inflation data surprised to the upside, the Fed could now be looking at extending the length of their tightening cycle. Combined with yesterday's RBA minutes outlining the case for a slower pace of rate hikes, AUD/USD may be exposed to a significant breakdown below this level on the two central bank's policy divergence. 

All trading carries risk, but it will be extremely interesting to what the ultimate outcome of the FOMC Meeting is, and how markets react.


----------



## ducati916

This is the Eurodollar chart.




The lower Eurodollars, the higher the dollar.

Lower lows, lower highs. Text book for a higher dollar.

Re. tomorrows announcement from Mr Powell:





jog on
duc


----------



## DaveTrade

ducati916 said:


> This is the Eurodollar chart.
> 
> View attachment 147066
> 
> 
> The lower Eurodollars, the higher the dollar.
> 
> Lower lows, lower highs. Text book for a higher dollar.
> 
> Re. tomorrows announcement from Mr Powell:
> 
> View attachment 147067
> View attachment 147068
> 
> 
> jog on
> duc



What I'm hearing is, if the hike is 75bp the market will most likely react to the upside and if it's 100bp then react to the downside. Just what people are saying.


----------



## Captain_Chaza

DaveTrade said:


> What I'm hearing is, if the hike is 75bp the market will most likely react to the upside and if it's 100bp then react to the downside. Just what people are saying.



I think that if the hike goes to 100bp the market will react to the upside
and If it's 75bp the Market will find new lows

I have no charts to measure  any "Feelings and Inclings"

DYOR


----------



## Captain_Chaza

However I have often found that the initial response  on FED announcements  is often WRONG in the first instance
Go Figure?
 We must be all working from different Timetables and Charts
Don't they all Know by now?
"Everybody Wins in the Long Term"


----------



## Dona Ferentes

DaveTrade said:


> What I'm hearing is, if the hike is 75bp the market will most likely react to the upside and if it's 100bp then react to the downside. Just what people are saying.



I would have thought that it would be the other way around.


----------



## DaveTrade

Captain_Chaza said:


> I think that if the hike goes to 100bp the market will react to the upside
> and If it's 75bp the Market will find new lows





Dona Ferentes said:


> I would have thought that it would be the other way around.




Yes that post was a spur-of-the-moment quickie. I was actually commenting on the $SPX/SPY part of @ducati916 's post. I've done this before, ie rushed a post, I promise to be more careful in the future.


----------



## Garpal Gumnut

Dona Ferentes said:


> I would have thought that it would be the other way around.





DaveTrade said:


> Yes that post was a spur-of-the-moment quickie. I was actually commenting on the $SPX/SPY part of @ducati916 's post. I've done this before, ie rushed a post, I promise to be more careful in the future.





DaveTrade said:


> What I'm hearing is, if the hike is 75bp the market will most likely react to the upside and if it's 100bp then react to the downside. Just what people are saying.




Rushed or not, it may be correct.

A 75 bp rise may calm the market whereas a 100 bp one may in fact spook it.

gg


----------



## Dona Ferentes

Garpal Gumnut said:


> Rushed or not, it may be correct.
> 
> A 75 bp rise may calm the market whereas a 100 bp one may in fact spook it.
> 
> gg



I took "the market" to mean the Bond Market, The big guy. Not the secondary currency markets

Sorry if out of context


----------



## Stockbailx

Interesting thoughts on the Feds rate hike, producing a mixed bag. Straight up and down in quick sensation with sentiment pointing south. AUD sits leveled out on lows. With more expected today, Analyst suggest a rebound north off pivot point 0.6621 fighting for highs toward 0.6726. I find this hard to fathom, with Inflation and Interest rate USD pressure placed on the AUD looking for further down turn below 0.6621...This all depends on how the USD reacted to the US hike?

The RSI is below 50. The MACD is negative and above its signal line. The configuration is mixed. Moreover, the price is trading under both its 20 and 50 period moving average (respectively at 0.6663 and 0.6674).


----------



## Stockbailx

Can the AUD gain enough confidence for some upside to prevail today. The S&P Global Manufacturing, Composite, Services PMI Flash are in today for SEPT. They test positive and in the green but is it enough to get the AUD over the line. Analysis suggest take a long position at 0.6616 support looking for  0.6717 sounds doable, interesting to see how the AUD fairs. Alternative Scenario below 6616...

The RSI is above its neutrality area at 50. The MACD is above its signal line and positive. The configuration is positive. Moreover, the price is above its 20 and 50 period moving average (respectively at 0.6641 and 0.6624).


----------



## KevinBB

However, the longer term trend is down! down! Prices are down! as shown in this chart of Dec 22 futures.



I'd find it really hard to trade against the trend, even on a short term basis. Yes, the down trend has to stop eventually, but I'll wait until there is a really good buy signal before changing my position.

KH


----------



## Stockbailx

AUD might be looking at a rebound towards 0.6599. Due for a correction north, no real news to support this theory should trend continue south. The downside breakout of 0.6497 would call for 0.6460 and 0.6439. Suggested pivot point and support stands at 0.6497?...

The RSI is below its neutrality area at 50. The MACD is above its signal line and negative. The configuration is mixed. Moreover, the price stands below its 20 and 50 period moving average (respectively at 0.6548 and 0.6594).


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## gartley

Expect only a feeble rebound. My 2c LOWER.....  0.623/0.643 range on the weekly chart projection. Monthly projection range is 0.608/0.638. So we have overlapping ranges in these 2 timeframes. When it approches 0.643 will re analyse , but ultimately price and momentum will hopefully tell us. For now I hold my USD especially since SPX and indices look so weak.


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## Stockbailx

gartley said:


> Expect only a feeble rebound. My 2c LOWER.....  0.623/0.643 range on the weekly chart projection. Monthly projection range is 0.608/0.638. So we have overlapping ranges in these 2 timeframes. When it approches 0.643 will re analyse , but ultimately price and momentum will hopefully tell us. For now I hold my USD especially since SPX and indices look so weak.



The downside prevails as long as 0.6496 is resistance. Analyst giving in to the downside pressure on the AUD, I concur Monthly and Weekly Chart showing more and more dominance of downside prevailing as the days go bye. May see some upside into next week. Falling back into lows of Feb 2020, Despite the depression alternative scenario Above 0.6496, look for 0.6531 and 0.6553.

The RSI is below 50. The MACD is negative and below its signal line. The configuration is negative. Moreover, the price is trading under both its 20 and 50 period moving average (respectively at 0.6479 and 0.6500).


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## gartley

Interestingly 4 year Nominal cycle using 100 week offset calling for sub 60c ultimately. Sort of lines up with the 0.608 expected from the monthly dynamic cycles


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## Garpal Gumnut

gartley said:


> Interestingly 4 year Nominal cycle using 100 week offset calling for sub 60c ultimately. Sort of lines up with the 0.608 expected from the monthly dynamic cycles
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> View attachment 147338



I’m just wondering how far the Aussie can fall going forward to about Christmas Day which is special for me what with family getting together and presents. 




It’s lost 15% this year. 

How low can it go given the mess the USA is heading towards, before recovering. 

gg


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## gartley

Garpal Gumnut said:


> I’m just wondering how far the Aussie can fall going forward to about Christmas Day which is special for me what with family getting together and presents.
> 
> View attachment 147771
> 
> 
> It’s lost 15% this year.
> 
> How low can it go given the mess the USA is heading towards, before recovering.
> 
> gg



Should meet just under 60, no other downward cycle projections thereafter. Basically will follow SPX. "It's all the same market atm"


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## CityIndex

With the RBA choosing to slow the pace of rate hikes last week, Friday’s hot NFP report looks like it may have opened the door for the Australian and US rate differential to accelerate.

All trading carries risk, and this week’s US CPI data will also likely have a big say in things. However, this could weigh heavily on AUD/USD as the pair currently looks to be attempting a break below the sideways range it traded in over the last 2 weeks.


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