# BGF - Ballarat Goldfields



## markrmau (24 February 2005)

I may be chasing shadows here but am interested in this:

On Tuesday, the price of BGF jumped on high volume to 20c, with minimal justification (some stock broker placed a buy on BGF but it wasn't widely reported).

Suddenly large volumes of sell bids appear at 20c (total of 6million or so which NEVER appears on this stock - high is usually 1.5million).

On Wednesday, BGF  press release saying increase in gold reserves of 57%. Thats 57% mind you, an increase by over half of the current gold reserve levels, not just some pissy 5% or so.

Price actually falls to 19.5c (19c close was too small volume to worry about).

Now the first suspicion would be that the news leaked and those in the know got in on Tuesday. But then why would these people stack up 6million at 20c? That doesn't make sense. This announcement could easily allow the SP to easily run to 24c or so. The people in the know would be smart enough to let things run for a while.

Options expire Thursday. Could this be larger option players trying to minimise damage from a high BGF price? 

I wonder if any of these 20c bids will disappear?


----------



## SuperTed (24 February 2005)

*Re: Strange price action for BGF*

Cant do options on BGF!


----------



## markrmau (24 February 2005)

*Re: Strange price action for BGF*

Hmmm your right. Someone on hotcopper was going on about BGFO ??


----------



## markrmau (24 February 2005)

*Re: Strange price action for BGF*

BGFO is a sept 05 option.

Maybe someone wants to load up on these. I can't find any more info on BGFO.


----------



## SuperTed (25 February 2005)

*Re: Strange price action for BGF*

Load up.

That would be a whole lot of fun entering and exiting.


----------



## markrmau (4 March 2005)

*Re: Strange price action for BGF*

Nice trend for BGF. I personally think a medium term target is 24-25c, based on the previous trading range and the revised gold reserves. 

Disclaimer: I am loaded with BGF and BGFO (Sept 05 option excercisable for 15c)


----------



## RichKid (4 March 2005)

*Re: Strange price action for BGF*

Hi Markmau,
Nice chart, one cool looking trend channel, 20c looks like a nice support level for BGF, 18c is the next one. I can see now why you are bemused by the slow reaction to the 57% hike in reserves, maybe it was anticipated and people weren't too surprised- have any of the fundamental types here done the maths on what the sp should be? I can't recall any broker reports. 

My only concern is that silly people may be just thinking of BGF as just another gold stock and will dump it when the gold price falls, BUT since it's in the ASX 300 now some fund managers would be in it and would know better. Thumbs up for the moment.

Long term chart below shows the blue sky potential after recovery from the capital raising.


----------



## doctorj (5 March 2005)

*Re: Strange price action for BGF*

I've heard from an anonymous source that BGF's announcement was known amongst many of the better connected people in the industry several days before the market.  I have also been lead to believe by the same source that this stock is being sold down by some of the said people above to pick up more cheap stock.


----------



## RichKid (29 March 2005)

*Re: Strange price action for BGF*

Looks like BGF, like some Gold stocks at present, is on its way South with the gold price. Maybe it'll settle around 18c.


----------



## markrmau (31 March 2005)

*Re: Strange price action for BGF*

Well spotted with the extent of the drop - no way I thought it would be that bad. 

However the faithfull were rewarded today.


----------



## DTM (31 March 2005)

*Re: Strange price action for BGF*

 

Nice up movement today but I can't see it reaching the previous peaks.  I don't think it will drop any further and am more inclined to think that it will range around the current price.

Just my thoughts


----------



## markrmau (19 April 2005)

*BGF*

Can I suggest people have a look at bgf because:

1. They have made some very good announcements recently: production to start 6 months early, discovered more gold, increase in gold reserves ....

2. The options bgfo always tend to lead movements in bgf up and down. Currently bgfo is at a 1c premium to bgf whereas recently it has been usually a lot less than that. (Close to 0 cents).

3. I suspect the recent / ongoing carnage in the US will push people into gold. Especially when they realise that 90% of their glitzy hedge funds are going to make a loss.

4. It was sold down excessively in the recent carnage.

5. I have an interest in 200,000 shares (LOL).

I believe other gold stocks are good too - BSG, BDG, but don't know much about them.


----------



## RichKid (21 April 2005)

*Re: BGF Ballarat Goldfields*

I like BGF too but I'm concerned it's got ahead of itsefl, needs to start production, a number of risks still to be overcome, that's the next milestone imo next to more resource upgrades.
My worry with goldstocks is the goldprice, higher this week but will it retrace? I'll post more in the gold thread.


----------



## markrmau (3 August 2005)

*Re: BGF*



			
				markrmau said:
			
		

> I have an interest in 200,000 shares.




Well BGF has served me well since I got in 6 months ago, but it looks like it is getting a bloody nose today. I've dropped my exposure to about 35k shares.

Not that I don't think that this is a 30c+ stock. I just think it might pull back a bit now until production starts.


----------



## Porper (3 August 2005)

*Re: BGF*



			
				markrmau said:
			
		

> Well BGF has served me well since I got in 6 months ago, but it looks like it is getting a bloody nose today. I've dropped my exposure to about 35k shares.
> 
> Not that I don't think that this is a 30c+ stock. I just think it might pull back a bit now until production starts.




It will be interesting to see if the buyer comes in late, this has happened a lot recently.Wouldn't be surprised if it finishes the day where it started, only 0.005 down, had to have a breather at some point.All the signals are good, we will see.I am in the options so my fear is I can get stopped out on any slight retracement, still, can't have it all ways.


----------



## amohonour (17 August 2005)

*Re: BGF Ballarat Goldfields*

got on this baby at .095 and stil riding north great stock with stacks of potential hasnt really set a foot wrong imho it look strong still


----------



## Milk Man (6 October 2005)

*Re: BGF Ballarat Goldfields*

Ahhh... If only id bought this puppy in Aug when I tipped it in the comp. Aint illiquidity a pain in the butt! A mate did buy it though- he owes me a beer (or brewery)! What about old mate that got it for 9.5c? Still got it? Thats a three-bagger! This correction doesn't seem to have touched it either. 

Disregard what I just said- I want to be able to afford it when free up some cash!


----------



## amohonour (27 October 2005)

*Re: BGF Ballarat Goldfields*

Still on board and loving it topped up along the way this is going to be huge imo. The chart looks great and certainly primed for its next leg upward. As soon as production starts in december this will rise quicker than in the past.imho they say dont fall in love with stocks well must say its hard not to with this one.


----------



## TheAnalyst (16 January 2006)

*Re: BGF Ballarat Goldfields*

I now have my eye on this baby....its estimate of 6mill ounces of gold and know to underestimate....market capitalisation of roughly460 mill$$ undiluted and including diluted probably close to $600 mill...that means with its first gold pour and calculated gold at roughly $540 an ounce multiplied by the 6 million ounces estimation =$3.240 billion gross...just wonder what the net profit would be???

Its first pour now seems like a nice buy...anyone have any comments?


----------



## TheAnalyst (16 January 2006)

*Re: BGF Ballarat Goldfields*



			
				TheAnalyst said:
			
		

> I now have my eye on this baby....its estimate of 6mill ounces of gold and know to underestimate....market capitalisation of roughly460 mill$$ undiluted and including diluted probably close to $600 mill...that means with its first gold pour and calculated gold at roughly $540 an ounce multiplied by the 6 million ounces estimation =$3.240 billion gross...just wonder what the net profit would be???
> 
> Its first pour now seems like a nice buy...anyone have any comments?




Just checked the last estimates...state that for 100,000 ounces poured the cash cost per ounce is $274/oz and the total cost this includes the non cash expences such as depreciation and amortisation $342/oz

I calcualted the net profit on these assumptions for all 6 mill ounces and it come to at the price per ounce $540 =$1.188 bill on this figure the shares are technically worth just over $1.


The cost per ounce becomes reduced as the fixed cost component remains the same. I donot have a management account variable cost per ounce maybe someone else will know...

Major institutions increasing their stakes as well.


----------



## bvbfan (16 January 2006)

*Re: BGF Ballarat Goldfields*

Your probably better off to value BGF on 5x annual cash flow.

You could also use a $ per ounce (I think $50AUD is reasonable), at that figure it  looks a little overvalued if you say market cap it $400million
I guess there is some exploration premium attached which is harder to value


----------



## TheAnalyst (16 January 2006)

*Re: BGF Ballarat Goldfields*



			
				bvbfan said:
			
		

> Your probably better off to value BGF on 5x annual cash flow.
> 
> You could also use a $ per ounce (I think $50AUD is reasonable), at that figure it  looks a little overvalued if you say market cap it $400million
> I guess there is some exploration premium attached which is harder to value




The market capitalisation is over $400 mill already and if you read the last analyst report and use there figures they calculated it on less than the current spot price of gold.  The probabilities are 90% of it going to 67 cents just on what it has so far...5 yr cashflows really at present are not something to go by as it will probally see you not get involved in a lot of profitable miners.

BGF would have been one of them.....so i really disagree with you here as you have even no knowledge of the market capitalisation...so the only way i am going to see any reason in what you said is if you provide the figures and the assumptions that i have presented and are currently excepted.

Waiting for you.....


----------



## crackaton (1 February 2006)

Interesting volumne yesterday with no announcement. It appears maybe someone is accumulating. Lots of little orders went through


----------



## MalteseBull (2 February 2006)

BGF reaches new 52 week high today of 47 cents.
Worth looking into


----------



## MalteseBull (3 February 2006)

2,000,000 at .46 cents

wow


----------



## MalteseBull (6 February 2006)

Strong Buy IMHO..

currently .475 will hit .50 (look at graph) 

huge potential here..


----------



## MalteseBull (7 February 2006)

I been holding since .43 and bought more at .465 today..
I expect it to defently go to 50 cents by the end of the month with future potential such as take overs..


----------



## crackaton (20 February 2006)

Big buys today... someone interested.


----------



## crackaton (21 February 2006)

POG held well overnight at 555.70, silver at 9.52. BGF will do well today!


----------



## crackaton (2 March 2006)

Dud call on this one. Turns out they have a loss of 16 million, and their so called first pour is so small it wasn't even mentioned. Lots of people bailing and big seller at .445 Sorry guys, but this one may take a big nose dive.


----------



## carpets (2 March 2006)

crackaton said:
			
		

> Dud call on this one. Turns out they have a loss of 16 million, and their so called first pour is so small it wasn't even mentioned. Lots of people bailing and big seller at .445 Sorry guys, but this one may take a big nose dive.




looking at the chart, it seems as though its still strongly trending upwards. POG about $562 us/ounce today, with not many of the aussie gold stocks moving with the increase in the Gold price. It seems as though investors are looking for positive signs that the gold run will breakout of this short term consolidation/correction before returing to gold and gold stocks. In the short term, IMO further losses are possible, but for the longer term holders, it looks like its just correcting before further gains.


----------



## crackaton (2 March 2006)

Sure POG is up but have doubts about BGF. MIght stick to SBM instead


----------



## carpets (2 March 2006)

SBM, definently good atm. I totally agree with BGF, probably best to sit on the side lines for now.


----------



## Profitseeker (5 May 2006)

New deposit unearthed in Ballarat gold mine
Ballarat Goldfields has discovered its biggest gold deposit in many years.

The gold has been found more than 500 metres underground below diggings from the gold rush era of the 1850s.

The company's chief geologist, Steven Olsen, says it is a very significant find and the most important since the company first found high grade gold in the 1980s.

"We've discovered a break in the rock which has very large amounts, or large quantities of gold, and certainly quite a bit more than we believe was mined historically," Mr Olsen said. 

"The ore bodies that were mined historically were on faults that moved the rock about five or 10 metres, the new fault that we've discovered has moved the rocks up to a 100 metres and seems to have grades up to twice as high or even more than what they mined historically."


----------



## Profitseeker (5 May 2006)

How come they did not announce the above.  :swear:


----------



## ricm (5 May 2006)

Pretty sure this is the "blue whale" fault as discussed in the announcment dated 26 April. check it out...regards


----------



## Profitseeker (5 May 2006)

You are right sorry. took the papers a while to write about it!


----------



## Porper (5 May 2006)

Very interesting that a couple of bids for a million shares a piece went in today with only 2 mins left before close (the auction) at 0.43.I couldn't resist so banged an order in at 0.435 and got a few.

BGF have taken a big hit the past few days, even with Gold going up, so I am looking for a bounce  and / or some news to come from the company.This lack of news seems to be the reason for the sell off.Purely a CFD short term trade for me with this one.

Incidentally I did an Elliot wave calculation on BGF ages ago and have a wave 5 high of 0.57 which is still well intact, so here's hoping.


----------



## Profitseeker (6 May 2006)

I bought in on weakness too hoping for a bounce. I have a pretty tight stop loss on it though.


----------



## combankau (29 May 2006)

Big vol today. any one knows any thing about it


----------



## combankau (1 June 2006)

Another 82m shares trade today. Something is going to happen soon.


----------



## Sean K (1 June 2006)

That is vey interesting. But only moved a cent?! Has been smashed the past month. 40% in fact. Possibly the hardest of all the miners. Might be worth taking a punt that there could be some corporate action. Has lots of institutions on the share registry. None with more than 10%. Does that make it easier or more difficult to takeover?


----------



## raja71 (26 September 2006)

Again & again this stocks keeps getting a pounding - can anyone shed any light as to where this one might go?

raja71


----------



## ricm (26 September 2006)

where do i start...
no gold production as of yet, and none to come in the near future

has to go deeper to get at the gold, as they under estimated the amount (or lack thereof) of gold in the old workings which was originally planned.

so to go deeper, they need to raise a further $120m, as well as the planning involved meaning more time, i think 2008-9 from memory before this stock promises to mine...best to check their anns. if you want further clarification.


----------



## MalteseBull (17 October 2006)

I am surprised no one on these forums has mentioned the announcment of the possible merger with LHG..

have a read of the announcments..


----------



## SevenFX (17 October 2006)

MalteseBull said:
			
		

> I am surprised no one on these forums has mentioned the announcment of the possible merger with LHG..
> 
> have a read of the announcments..





http://www.asx.com.au/asxpdf/20061017/pdf/3z0yrw4693llc.pdf
http://www.ballarat-goldfields.com.au/


----------



## YOUNG_TRADER (18 October 2006)

I'm suprised how much consolidation is going on in the Gold Sector, I mean Someone bought SED, LVR and PSV are merging, now LHG is swallowing up BGF,

I think BDG has to be next


----------



## MalteseBull (18 October 2006)

down today...? worth holding or sell?


----------



## MalteseBull (19 October 2006)

Anyone want to offer their general consensus on BGF...

strong support at .25 ...

but has been down for the last 2 days after announcing the LHG merger..

thoughts ??


----------



## chef dave (20 October 2006)

Hi MB,

It seems BGF's price is now pegged to Lihir's. LHG closed at $3.11 the day before the announcement, so this was the price that the $0.288 per share for BGF was calculated. So, yesterday, LHG closed at $2.78, so each BGF share was worth $0.2574, hence it's closing at $0.255. If LHG get's back to $3.11, then it will need to rise by 11 cents to see a 1 cent increase in the BGF price. I hold LHG long term, so am bullish on the stock, however, I don't see it rising to rapidly in the short term, therefore BGF, I believe, is limited to where it can go. However, if you can trade LHG, then at the moment, you can trade BGF.

I bought in last week at $0.24 and caught the announcement. I have held through the last couple of days, waiting to see what happens with Lihir. Gold was up again overnight, so we should see some good play in the gold sector today (hopefully).

Dave


----------



## Dutchy3 (14 February 2007)

A few of the GOLD stocks are looking very similar at the moment.

In terms of % gain potential this one seems to be up there.

I taken a few positions in the last few days and I notice MD remains robust and healthy for the BULLS


----------

