# BOL - Boom Logistics



## TheAbyss (14 February 2007)

I hold BOL and note that they have gone back 12% today on what appears to be a very good report. Anyone have an opinion they care to share?


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## barney (14 February 2007)

TheAbyss said:
			
		

> I hold BOL and note that they have gone back 12% today on what appears to be a very good report. Anyone have an opinion they care to share?




Hi Ab,  Just about to mention BOL myself ......... Sometimes the market does what seems to be irrational things .......... I reckon its traders ...... Wouldnt surprise to see it back over $4 by end of trade today. Cheers, Barney


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## TheAbyss (14 February 2007)

The report states

Highlights
• NPAT up 25% to $19.6m
• EBITDA up 36% to $48.2m
• Interim dividend 5.7cps fully franked, up 10%
• Underlying organic growth rate 10%
• James Group integration progressing well

Downside is CEO retiring however hardly rates a 12% fall.


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## TheAbyss (14 February 2007)

Just picked up another 3000 units for what i hope is a quick and profitable trade. The CEO retiring bad news over reaction IMO


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## TheAbyss (14 February 2007)

A week ago this stock was at 4.10 and drifted up to 4.15. Then today up to 4.34 pre half yearly results then the results come out and they fall to 3.62. 

Now making their way back up. Be keen to hear any other opinions


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## Halba (14 February 2007)

Abyss

Its not ceo retiring.

EPS over 10% below analysts expectations.

On my numbers, EPS growth was 5%, mkt wanted 15-20%.

That means it should be down 15% today.


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## TheAbyss (14 February 2007)

Thanks Halba.


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## brendan87 (14 February 2007)

I am a holder of BOL and I also thought the reaction was a little overdone. Interesting considering the quite impressive run up and close yesterday. I don't think anything fundamentally has changed but the stock does have a history of counter-intuitive reactions to news (especially the stocks sensitivity to housing statistics...when today's report says residential construction is under 1% of earnings). It's a well diversified (geographically and product mix wise) - and over 2/3 of earnings are 'maintenance' services which are acyclical. I thought prices under $3.70 were too good to go past so picked up a few this morning. Coming back nicely this afternoon it seems.


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## reece55 (14 February 2007)

Halba - Not sure if the decrease in EPS growth should equate to the same level of fall here....

Guys, I seriously would not be too worried here.... OK, the numbers weren't as good as people expected. This stock has heavy backing from instos and is a great stock - this will be seen as a minor blip on the way. Support today of 3.60 was tested and has come up very strong - wouldn't be surprised if the inso's are topping up today on the high volume!

Cheers


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## barney (14 February 2007)

reece55 said:
			
		

> Halba - Not sure if the decrease in EPS growth should equate to the same level of fall here....
> 
> Guys, I seriously would not be too worried here.... OK, the numbers weren't as good as people expected. This stock has heavy backing from instos and is a great stock - this will be seen as a minor blip on the way. Support today of 3.60 was tested and has come up very strong - wouldn't be surprised if the inso's are topping up today on the high volume!
> 
> Cheers




Agreed Reece,  The Instos probably started the landslide in the first place .... so they could top up at good prices when a lot of stops get hit ...... now its bounced back, they will probably play "yo-yo" with it for a day or so.


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## Halba (14 February 2007)

Hi Reece - in my fall I accounted for markets being a little bit 'pissed' off, by shaving another couple of % below what it should be.

Unfortunately there's not much upside on my numbers apart from the dividend?


If you want a divvie just buy CBA, they have declared $1.08 dividend.


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## Jimminy (14 February 2007)

I think you'll find if you look closely that the reason is that the divvie has only been increased by 10%   ......this has pissed the market off...

Given the NPAT increase this is piddly.


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## mmmmining (14 February 2007)

There is disconnection between mining giant BHP, RIO, construction giant LEI, and the equipment hiring company.

Rising SP of BHP and to the extraordinary performance of LEI is based on the expanded mining and construction activities.

The beaten down SP of BOL, and to the less extended, also with less expectation of NHR does not make any sense because they are directly and fully involved in this boom.  Or does it generate a great opportunity for investment, not trading?

Soon or late BOL and NHR, include COA's business should be back to high gear if they don't kill each by competition. 

I think the current dip is a great buying opportunity. Just have a look at LEI and  BHP's SP 3 months back, anyone want them? I guess this group of stocks might be 3-6 months lag behind....


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## brendan87 (14 February 2007)

Just commenting on the 10% increase in DPS - I think it reflects the board's confidence that they can grow the business, particularly through more acquisitions. Remember that EPS is either distributed as div's or ploughed back into the business as retained earnings. I try to keep in mind that companies announcing large capital management/special div's (as great as they are   ) are effectively saying to shareholders "your better off with the cash dividends than trying to reinvest profits in the business" - or in the case of capital initiaves (eg. BHP last week), the business is unable to grow earnings per share enough through its operations so reducing the capital base through buy-backs is the only way to drive EPS growth. For investors looking for growth - a lower payout is a positive signal and I think markets tend to focus on the short-term bonuses coming out of record company profits rather than what the board is _really_  saying about the company.


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## michael_selway (14 February 2007)

Halba said:
			
		

> Abyss
> 
> Its not ceo retiring.
> 
> ...




*EPS(c) PE Growth 
Year Ending 30-06-07 27.6 15.1 26.7% 
Year Ending 30-06-08 30.5 13.7 10.5% 

Earnings and Dividends Forecast (cents per share) 
2006 2007 2008 2009 
EPS 21.8 27.6 30.5 33.4 
DPS 10.4 13.0 15.0 16.2 * 

thx

MS


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## TheAbyss (15 February 2007)

Bol appears to be bouncing back. Back to $4.00 from the ridiculous $3.62 yesterday. 

On my calculations you could pick them up now for $4.00 and keep them for the div alone and make 11% (Using a Margin loan valuation of 60%) and allowing for a hold of 45 days. Your consideration would be whether to follow Rosella's lead (see dividends thread) and decide whether to sell as the SP increases towards Ex div date (TBA but pre 23 March as that is the payment date) or retain for the div and sell post div.


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## Ken (25 March 2007)

BOL, and COA are both following a similar trend.  Both have recently payed a dividend, and both have dropped close to 20% since February.

I find this very interesting seeing as it deals mainly in the construction and mining sector.  Unemployment levels are still low which would indicate there is plenty of work being done. Infrastructure has not suddenly stopped and building companies such Leighton holdings are at all time highs.

BOL looks oversold to me considering it's forward looking dividend and earnings per share, I am just wondering if others feel the same way.  
The director has sold over $400k of his shares, but he still owns a substantial amount, in the millions.  

I have also noticed Insto's such as CBA, AMP, WBC, becoming and ceasing to be substantial holders over the past month.  Whether this is a swing in there port folios I am unsure. 

On the other hand prices of $4.50 for BOL could have been overbought,and it is now coming back to true value.

Any thoughts... COA, and BOL both struggling.   That big drop not long ago could be the start of a downward trend.

Thoughts??


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## Jimminy (26 March 2007)

Ken,

I sold out of BOL shortly after their report cam out....but read their half yearly report / presentation for yourself. You will understand why the sp has droppped. Prospects for this company are neutral for the next 6-12 months, hence the selling.


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## Ken (26 March 2007)

Looking at the chart support appears to around current levels.  However a lack of announcements may see price edge lower.  

The lower the price goes, the rise in the increased dividend percentage will look more attractive to investors.... currently dividend is at 3.6% and a fall to $3.00 a share would be 4.6%....  for a growth stock with secure earnings that would seem a little high.... 

Just trying to pick a bottom for BOL.


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## barney (26 March 2007)

Ken said:


> Looking at the chart support appears to around current levels.  However a lack of announcements may see price edge lower.
> 
> The lower the price goes, the rise in the increased dividend percentage will look more attractive to investors.... currently dividend is at 3.6% and a fall to $3.00 a share would be 4.6%....  for a growth stock with secure earnings that would seem a little high....
> 
> Just trying to pick a bottom for BOL.





Howdy Ken, Just my guess on BOL, but I suspect that the bulk of the selling has now been completed .......... the two big banks have bought and sold their respective positions ......... In saying that, it would not surprise to see the sp drift a little lower yet as the last of the sellers come in, but if it holds and consolidates above $3.51 I think it looks a solid longer term investment ........... I do hold a few so I'm probably biased   Cheers.


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## Ken (26 March 2007)

I would like to see it hold around current levels.  When the market has another sour day I think BOL could be in trouble breaking down past $3.50.

Westpac broking has a buy recommendation on it so it did come up there as a dividend/growth stock.


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## Ken (26 March 2007)

Another grim day for BOL when the market rises.  

At a critical point for me of $3.50. If breaks below I think more downside is likely.


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## Ken (26 March 2007)

Massive sell order and it dropped to 3.42... something not right with BOL at the moment. Lots of sellers.

Might just give it a miss for now.


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## Jimminy (26 March 2007)

I think anything around these prices is still only fair buying for the long term investor.

Not for me though when realistically you might achieve a negative return over the next 12 months. Not good enough in today's bull market and investors are voting with their feet accordingly. Sell.


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## Ken (26 March 2007)

isn't BOL a cyclical stock?

Is the time to buy when the sector is poor, and the time to sell when the sector is firing?

Big sell orders are appearing from nowhere.... if this continues it will not be long before we are in the $2.90 to $3.00 range. which i think would be value.

Either way I cant see anything which would change the current state in which BOL is being sold down.


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## michael_selway (26 March 2007)

Ken said:


> isn't BOL a cyclical stock?
> 
> Is the time to buy when the sector is poor, and the time to sell when the sector is firing?
> 
> ...




Hi, its worthabout $3 atm imo

*Earnings and Dividends Forecast (cents per share) 
2006 2007 2008 2009 
EPS 21.8 25.8 29.1 31.8 
DPS 10.4 13.0 14.7 16.0 

EPS(c) PE Growth 
Year Ending 30-06-07 25.8 13.7 18.5% 
Year Ending 30-06-08 29.1 12.2 12.8% *

thx

MS


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## barney (26 March 2007)

michael_selway said:


> Hi, its worthabout $3 atm imo
> 
> *Earnings and Dividends Forecast (cents per share)
> 2006 2007 2008 2009
> ...




Hi Michael, I'm certainly not going to try and dispute your figures cause fundamental analysis is not my strong point, but I am curious as to why Westpac would be interested in buying several million shares in BOL if it represented poor value atm .................. I would imagine their analysts would be be at least "reasonable" ............Perhaps it is because Banks are more conservative and look longer term than most?? ....... Just guessing ................. The chart is certainly a bit "ugly" atm, but, Momentum is diverging against price, which is often a pre-curser to a change in near term direction .................. I still hold a few so the current movement is certainly "interesting" ........... Cheers.


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## Ken (28 March 2007)

With stocks such as rinker, and james hardie linked to the US housing market, is BOL also effected by this sector?

I don't see a direct relationship, as they are well diversified. But it is linked to the Construction industry in some way?

We have already had one bounce for BOL. Should we expect another bounce within the next month?


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## Ken (30 March 2007)

I think its fair to say there is some sort of support around $3.50.
The fin review had an article on BOL, saying that it was oversold, due to the poor report and the resignation of the CEO.

However they also stated that BOL was backed by 6 out of 7 brokers with price targets of $4.61 due to the industrial sector not showing any signs of weakness.

Price targets are all well and good, but there are a lot of variables such as US economy, etc etc...


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## mmmmining (30 March 2007)

Ken said:


> Price targets are all well and good, but there are a lot of variables such as US economy, etc etc...




Nothing to do with US. Thinking about the booming mining industry and national infrastructure upgrade, BOL has a very good future. Investors will see the value soon. Just a quick look at peers:

BOL: SP: $3.52  PE  14.13 PEG: 0.91 Div 3.3%
NHR: SP: $1.59  PE 10.06, PEG: 0.89 Div 4.6%
COA: SP: $4.89  PE 11.59, PEG: 1.05 Div 4.1%


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## Ken (30 March 2007)

Well which one offers better returns? COA or BOL?  it would appear COA is better value with a lower PE and higher dividend.

does BOL have more to fall?


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## mmmmining (30 March 2007)

Ken said:


> Well which one offers better returns? COA or BOL?  it would appear COA is better value with a lower PE and higher dividend.
> 
> does BOL have more to fall?




My view is about a sector in general. If you want to invest in a particular sector, PE or PEG, or div yield is only some of the aspects to consider. You might go through the company presentation first, then the annual reports, etc.. I guess you need to DYOR.


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## Ken (2 April 2007)

Not looking good.

$3.21 low...


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## Ken (2 April 2007)

The slide continues.

Interesting the director offloads $500,000 a week earlier and an announcement comes out that their business has been impacted by weather.

Slide continues. Probably worth shorting for some profits???


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## Seneca60BC (2 April 2007)

reece55 said:


> Halba - Not sure if the decrease in EPS growth should equate to the same level of fall here....
> 
> Guys, I seriously would not be too worried here.... OK, the numbers weren't as good as people expected. This stock has heavy backing from instos and is a great stock - this will be seen as a minor blip on the way. Support today of 3.60 was tested and has come up very strong - wouldn't be surprised if the inso's are topping up today on the high volume!
> 
> Cheers




So much for a minor blip - I think there is more to it.


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## Ken (2 April 2007)

Could it be that infrastructure companies are being re-rated similar to that of mmining giants such as BHP, RIO, OXR, ZFX where they trade on low PE's of 9-10?

The brokers can have them as a buy rating as much as they want, but it means nothing if the share price keeps dropping.

It has lost over 30% of its value in very short time.

Consolidation required, or at least a big bounce....


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## Ken (2 April 2007)

A close of $3.33 is not a great result.  It's heading faster towards the $3 mark than I thought it would.

I can't see what news is going to swing this stock back into favour.

Even when the market goes up BOL has been heading in the wrong direction.

The only thing that is looking more attractive at the moment is the dividend.

Anyone game to pick a bottom?


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## mmmmining (2 April 2007)

Ken, you have to ask yourself, are you a long term investor for value and growth, or just a short term trader?

Do you believe the story of booming mining industry and national infrastructure upgrade? 

If you are a short term trader, you should never buy a falling stock, and use chart and TA. But if you are a long term investor, you should check the fundamentals constantly. The unusual cyclonic activity is a one-off issue, or repeat events?

Worry about share price every minute is not an investor, more like a short term trader.


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## Ken (8 April 2007)

Faircall,

Where do you see Boom in 3-5 years? 

I was reading the January Smart Investor magazine and they talked about mega cycles, and BOL is in the sector which is set to benefit from this along with MAH. 

My thinking is that with all the new mining companies floating, the industry must benefit BOL in some way.  

With the current market cap, what would profits have to increase for BOL to be $5 $6 $10....

Is it fair to say short term we are looking at opportunity to get set on a growth stock offering yield?

Or are there people thinking BOL has peaked and its going to topple over...

Any chartist???


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## Ken (8 April 2007)

http://au.finance.yahoo.com/q/bc?s=BOL.AX&t=5y&l=on&z=m&q=l&c=


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## Jimminy (9 April 2007)

Ken said:


> Faircall,
> 
> Is it fair to say short term we are looking at opportunity to get set on a growth stock offering yield?
> 
> Or are there people thinking BOL has peaked and its going to topple over...




You are still here talking to yourself Ken, about BOL (JOKE) LOL...

Mate, it is this simple. You will not receive much, if any, capital growth on this stock for the next six months at least. If you are happy with this then so be it.

But for me I would not buy into a stock that has this short term prospect. Nor do many other investors hence the sell off of recent times.

You could probably buy at these prices in another six months. I will check back in another 6 months to see how you're doing. I only keep a fleeting interest in BOL because a close friend once dated the daugher of Holts cranes ex-owners in Toowoomba who sold out to BOOM. Plus the old man has a few BOOM that he bought when they listed.


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## Ken (9 April 2007)

Yeah they are a pretty boring stock when you think about it.

Its not like a miner where there are resource upgrades which gets investors excited.

Not much hype will come from BOL I wouldnt think, it is what it is, and reporting season is very important.

I have bought some BOL at current prices with the view of holding them as part of my blue chip long term 5 year + group, whilst re-investing the dividend.

In 5 years if BOL is $6 I will be a happy camper.


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## Ken (11 April 2007)

How significant is this acquisition?


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## Captain_Chaza (11 April 2007)

Ahoy Officer Kenny

She looks like a very dangerous and Un-Seaworthy tack to me 

Refer to past experinces/charts  like SGW HIH ONE 

How often do the Bad Bluechips just get Badder?

Salute and Take Care


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## Ken (11 April 2007)

Time will tell.

If only I had 2008 January edition of BRW.


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## rederob (11 April 2007)

Captain_Chaza said:


> Ahoy Officer Kenny
> 
> She looks like a very dangerous and Un-Seaworthy tack to me
> 
> ...




Charlie
BOL is actually making profits, and paying dividends from them, as it has for a few years.
SGW couldn't make a profit from tantalum and gold, despite having world class resources at its disposal.
HIH was an accountant's nightmare, and the Dodgy Bros are now serving custodial sentences as a result.
There is a marked difference between a stock that got ahead of itself and is correcting - as BOL has - and a stock that was bad and getting worse.
I think anything under $3.50 is worth a punt on BOL, but I personally would not enter unless it drifted below $3.00.
BOL has a debt issue to overcome, but compensates with long term maintenance contracts that give it cash flow stability.
Given BOL is not a "blue chip", I won't comment on the one's that get badder.  Although the ones that recover, such as AMP, can more than double one's entry price in a matter of years.
Maybe there's a lesson there after all?


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## Captain_Chaza (15 April 2007)

Ahoy Red Robert

Far be it for me to cross swords with a fundamelist with a ready reconner and with all the latest information on BOL on hand as you have

What about the Comparison with PAS?

Could they repeat history and do a Julius Caesar and "Burn the Boats" after crossing the Rubicon?
Could they  do a "burn the bridges tack " and do a PAS? 
ie: Start again under your fundamental rules of "Good Corporate Goverance?" 

It is always a worry to this Captain to see a share like BOL (One that pays Dividends to suckers) go South so dramatically in the middle on a Bull market when the majority are finding fair seas and weather conditions 

Gold Silver and more Gold for instance


Salute and Take Care


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## rederob (15 April 2007)

Charlie
It's a matter of what's improbable, not impossible.
Bad management can turn the improbable to the possible, tho generally slowly enough for the alert investor to notice.
Presently BOL does not stack up well if it were to wear a $4+ share price tag, and from a dividend perspective is marginal at present prices.  
BOL's growth potential is there, but at the moment needs to convince the market it can generate revenues that make it a better than average proposition.
I agree that gold and silver prospects are better alternatives, but the risk reward factor isn't everyone's cup of tea.


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## Ken (16 April 2007)

Rederob 

BOL definitley down in the dumps, the volumes seem to be higher than normal.

Alot of selling going on.

Plenty of other stocks kicking goals.

A few announcements with new contracts would be handy.

Can't see it getting over $3.50 within the next 3 months.


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## brendan87 (19 April 2007)

Hi all. I've been a holder of BOL for a while now and have cautiously accumulated in light of the downgrade - I thought the response was overdone but I think we could still see $3. In my opinion (for what it's worth) I think BOL could become a take-over target. I wonder what everyone else thinks ? I don't see an offer as probably but certainly possible in the current M&A enviornment. My reasons for holding this belief are:
- amazingly strong balance sheet. Proven ability to grow revenues faster than operating expenses, successfully turning share capital and borrowings into meaningful bottom line growth. Gearing ratios have come down alot since 05.
- improving margins. I think a LBO would see much more potential in improving margins/efficiency
- some leverage to a housing recovery 08 (market seems to react alot to residential data... even though less than 13% of revenue is from that market)
- i think that some view the company as more an 'infrastructure' company in terms of the type of assets, leasing agreements, long-term contracts for maintenance: similar to TSE?? So a LBO could use BOL's assets to fund the acquisition (in a similar way to Qantas and the airplanes being used as collateral to fund the acquisiton).
- former market darling now considerably cheaper than 12-18 mnths ago and now trading on a lower PE than the sector average. I think it's underpriced for a 'growth' company..which I still think it is. The technical analysis looks like HDR did before it received a surprise offer: although sentiment was alot worse surrounding HDR back then - maybe BOL under $3 with insto selling would be a takeover more attractive to longer term investors/instos.
- good operating cash flows (5 times interest cover) is a plus
- exposure to mining boom and higher business investment in the mining sector but BOL has underlying 'steady' cash flows from ongoing maintenance
- could benefit from hype around any infrastructure spending announced in the election year budget - favourable outlook for infrastructure maintenance and new projects (BOL has leverage to QLD and WA, where alot of fed funding will be directed)

Flipside: However any offer would have to be quite high (and a long stretch for any suitor)- I think there is a lesson to be learnt from Qantas re: fundies. BOL's has a high insto ownership and forms the cornerstone of many 'emerging company' funds for Aus and intl. fund managers: many of whom were buying over $4 in 06 and recently over $4 the days preceding the profit announcement earlier this year. Any thoughts?


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## Ken (23 April 2007)

Well looks like I got owned...

I was the cooler on BOL.


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## Kat82 (5 July 2007)

I read in a broker's report that the CEO succession was logical "given the mutual history of the CEO and CFO since pre-IPO".  Can anyone explain what it means?


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## Ken (5 July 2007)

No idea.

But I am of the opinion that BOL has been to quiet for too long.

In a mining BOOM so to speak. It will have its turn again.

When you think they are dead and buried the bulls just keep on keeping on...

Look at OXR and BHP, they have surged rapidly.  Long term holders will win on this one in my opinion.

Take the divs and tuck them away.

Out of BOL at the minute but will be back in shortly.


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## Ken (17 July 2007)

Well today was a glum day for holders.  Very disappointing performances, and must have you wonder about other companies. BOL can't be the only other company being effected by bad weather... yet they seem to be the only one reporting it.

I sold out and never re-entered.  I guess lucky in a way. Cause I would be well down...

I like BOL, but I just think the stock is very unloved.

I will wait for a re-entry point. I dont ride downward trends. Lesson learnt from the first time I purchased BOL.


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## 3 veiws of a secret (17 July 2007)

Ken said:


> ..... and must have you wonder about other companies. BOL can't be the only other company being effected by bad weather... yet they seem to be the only one reporting it.




Ken...I think your bloody right in what you say ..... reality might be that it's a stock that fits firm with infrastructure stocks, it's also has a position in the resources sector. When there is too much sun the farmer complains, too much rain he complains again.... You can't point that jib into the clouds when it rains in the city Ken. But when it comes to resources in the outback I bet even the resources stocks have to say the pits are pumped daily, but the mud is still here! Apart from that Boom Logistics is a share on my wifes' portfolio at the moment, Huntley's also have their hands on the pump with this stock ....lets see Ken ......I feel comfortable with the disclosures, better been told then not told.


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## michael_selway (17 July 2007)

Ken said:


> Well today was a glum day for holders.  Very disappointing performances, and must have you wonder about other companies. BOL can't be the only other company being effected by bad weather... yet they seem to be the only one reporting it.
> 
> I sold out and never re-entered.  I guess lucky in a way. Cause I would be well down...
> 
> ...




What about BLY, are they affected also?

thx

MS

Boart Longyear (BLY) is an integrated drilling services provider and products manufacturer for the Mineral Industry, with a presence in the Environmental & Infrastructure and Energy Industries.


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## Jimminy (8 August 2007)

Jimminy said:


> You are still here talking to yourself Ken, about BOL (JOKE) LOL...
> 
> Mate, it is this simple. You will not receive much, if any, capital growth on this stock for the next six months at least. If you are happy with this then so be it.
> 
> ...




Posted this back on 9th April 2007.....

Just bought in at $2.62. That will do me - may drop further but am now happy to stick these in the bottom drawer at these prices.

Appears oversold to me.

Anyone else agree.


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## Ken (8 August 2007)

I sold out...

I can't be sure the brakes have been put on this one...

I will be back in if some side ways action occurs...

I know the fundamentals say buy...

I think we are approaching support at $2.50

Can we be sure...


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## Jimminy (8 August 2007)

father time will be the judge Ken....

However BOL has been punished enough for now. The profit downgrade due to inclement weather on top of the market correction in the past week or 2 signals to me an entry point.

However there are plenty of people willing to sell as will always be the case with most stocks....but I get the impression that most people are sitting looking at BOL at $2.60 and beginning to think - that is cheap for a stock still churning out a $36m profit....

Well I did anyway.


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## Ken (8 August 2007)

This is something I need to learn.

How do I evaluate a stock like BOL?

I heard they have a heap of debt, which may be a reason they were sold down in anticipation of the rate rise also??

Besides that what does $36 million dollars profit mean in terms of dividends, and earnings per share?

At $2.60 I am thinking... mining boom stronger for longer theory, oversold also.

But who am I to disagree with my pidly entry of 2000 shares compared to the millions that have been selling it.

I am looking twice at BOL because compared to other stocks which fall sharply BOL is actually making a profit and not full of would be's and could be's.

I am reading a book at the moment, trading the trend.

They say there is at anypoint in time a 95% chance of the trend staying the same, and a 5% chance of a reversal.  Who am I to beat those odds.

I guess it depends on the trading strategy....  at $3.60 there were price targets of $4.80. 

I am waiting for a signal that the downwards action has stopped.


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## prawn_86 (8 August 2007)

ok i follow Boom of and on, but i dont hold, so im just thinking out loud here.

there are 171million shares on issue. So a profit of 36mill gives an EPS of 21c.

tthe usual (??) figure that i've heard as an easy estimate is 10x EPS which would price BOL at $2.10. Although the brokers seem to palce a significantly higher value on it. Perhaps they are factoring in future growth.

As to debt, i have very little ideahow that affects projected earnings etc, except for how the market gets jittery in situations like this for highly geared co's.

please correct me if im wrong as im here to learn


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## Captain_Chaza (8 August 2007)

prawn_86 said:


> ok i follow Boom of and on, but i dont hold, so im just thinking out loud here.
> 
> there are 171million shares on issue. So a profit of 36mill gives an EPS of 21c.
> 
> ...




Crickey!
I can't understand how the Packers got caught out in "ONE" Tel 

Surely they had the best of information on their side?

Sometimes it seems The Bad just get Badder

Salute and Gods' speed


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## Jimminy (9 August 2007)

yep, sometimes they do get badder.

Like I said father time will be the judge. I still like the fundamentals of this business and the technicals were there to enter yesterday at 2.62 in a rising market. Just my


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## Ken (17 August 2007)

Closed on a low of $2.60.

Not good.  Will test $2.50 on monday.  A break down of $2.50 and where to?

From all reports Monday could be a nasty day.

watch the US tonight. 

BOL still in an unloved sector but this will probably bring more good than bad this overall sell off.

For BOL it will have them re-rated by brokers.


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## Jimminy (31 August 2007)

Lowest it has gone so far is $2.58 if I am not mistaken.

Good support thus far in the $2.60 - 2.70 range.

I sold at 2.84 the day it went up to $3.07 and jumped back on at $2.66. Average buy price now $2.44.

I hope you are wrong about the 2.50 Ken.


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## dj_420 (27 September 2007)

From the BOL charts we can see that sp has been in a downtrend since feb 07. Although it has not crossed the downtrend line, IMO it may have formed a bottom. Support has been found at the 2.60 ish mark and recently trended sideways in a box formation until now it has formed a triangle.

The MACD crossed mid August and the 21 day SMA crossed mid September. From here I would like to see BOL break up above $3 and cross the downtrend line which is around $3.15. From there next levels of resistance would be $3.50 and $3.75. 

This stock has been sold off for quite a while now and has not shown any sort of recovery from the recent correction. It is trading on a PE of 12 since sell off.

Short term downside risk is at 2.60 from recent short term support.


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## dj_420 (28 September 2007)

BOL moving up now, almost touching $3, will find some resistance at $3 then can move up and breach the downtrend line. on fairly high volume also today. Once it breaks $3 very little overhead resistance judging from market depth.

this one has looked oversold and has not show any sort of recovery until the last 2-3 days.


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## dj_420 (28 September 2007)

Great day for BOL. Up 5.6% on above avg volume. From the short term chart we can see a number of things. The downtrend line needs to be broken, from this chart the downtrend will be crossed at 3.10. 

Recently we have seen BOL trend sideways with a false breakout, to fall back inside the sideways trend. Towards the end of this trend we saw a descending pennant to small breakout. Most recently there has been a triangle formation to breakout. 

Typically these triangle formations will break either up or down. Here we saw a tightening of trend and then a break up. Today BOL broke through the $3 mark quite easily on good volume. Usually these round dollar figures will represent phsycological resistance more than anything.

From here it is important that BOL gets above that downtrend line, a break above 3.10 would confirm this and resume a short term uptrend.


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## Jimminy (1 October 2007)

Ken said:


> Closed on a low of $2.60.
> 
> Not good.  Will test $2.50 on monday.  A break down of $2.50 and where to?
> 
> For BOL it will have them re-rated by brokers.




Looks like you missed the bottom Ken. $2.58 t'was.

Time for you to get back on board Ken. Better late than never. Confident this will head back up to $4 over the next six months.


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## Joe Blow (1 October 2007)

Jimminy said:


> Confident this will head back up to $4 over the next six months.




Some further elaboration is required here Jimminy. Can you please provide us with some more detail about why you are confident that BOL will head back up to $4 over the next 6 months? Thanks!


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## Jimminy (2 October 2007)

Joe Blow said:


> Some further elaboration is required here Jimminy. Can you please provide us with some more detail about why you are confident that BOL will head back up to $4 over the next 6 months? Thanks!




Joe Blow,

Boom Logistics said its full year result for the last financial year had been impacted by heavy rain, high winds and flooding along the east coast of Australia. 

Boom still posted a 36.6 m full year net operating profit after tax.

The weather caused issue mainly due to the number of open pit operations they service. The maintenance still has to be done though.

They have also made several recent acquisitions which will be reflected in earnings in the future.

I remain VERY confident about the outlook for the business and strength of the underlying industries the company relies upon for revenue.  So to answer your question - the profit of 36.6 in bad year, further acquisitions, and a bustling mining industry and metal prices all point to positive gains inthe next six months for BOL. My prediction is $4.00 - probably the optimistic prediciton I will admit.

Barring further bad weather of course


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## dj_420 (2 October 2007)

I would like to see BOL get above 3.10 and close above there, I see that as been the downtrend line, still increasing slowly. There is definite increased interest in this stock.


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## dj_420 (2 October 2007)

BOL has moved up through the 3.10 mark where IMO was a signal of downtrend reversal. BOL has found bottom around 2.60 and has moved up from there.

From here next levels of resistance will be the 3.30 - 3.50 mark where is has shown support and trended within the channel before.

Today I would like to see BOL close above the 3.10 mark, and begin to build a new base of support.


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## Ken (15 November 2007)

BOOM,

Brokers love it.

But I did hear that the worst cyclone season was going to be had in Australia.

Boom wIILL smashed now that people raise cyclone, or poor weather warnings up north.


Although in the scheme of things.

BOL is to me in the right sector, at the right time, and at the right price.

I am as confident about BOL being a good long term stock, as I was about BHP at the end of 2006, when BHP was $24  testing all time lows, when copper prices were tanking.

Time will tell as it always does.


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## prawn_86 (15 November 2007)

I too like BOL, and have traded it successfully a couple times in the past.

I think it has good long term potential, but as you (and the market) says weather is an important factor for them.

I would put their true value closer to the $3 mark at a very conservative estimate. A lot of brokers have much higher value placed on them.


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## Ken (20 November 2007)

$2.60 close seems to be a heap of support around here at those levels.

But time will tell.

I notice westpac float on and off as substancial holder must flicker on and off 5% holdings.

Telstra super fund is overweight in Boom Logistics.

It seems like a stock that potentially at the right time could reap significant % gains in quick time.

It trades like a mining stock in the fact the percentage moves can be big.


If anyone has a crystal ball, I would love to see this stock in 5 years time.

Whether or not this MINING BOOM stronger for longer actually is there and we see BOL reap its benefits by expanding globally.


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## tronic72 (23 November 2007)

Ken said:


> $2.60 close seems to be a heap of support around here at those levels.
> 
> But time will tell.
> 
> ...





Just purchased at 2.38. I think that's a very good price for this stock. has taken a while for the Boom to make progress after all their acquisitions. That said, I think the time for a serious turn around is very close.


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## tronic72 (28 November 2007)

Wow! Anyone know what's going on with BOOM? 

Over 10% drop today!

The announcement they submitted to the ASX seems to have had the opposite effect it was meant to.


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## 3MT (28 November 2007)

Looks like the market is taking the ASX response as an indirect confirmation of an imminent profit downgrade as BOL is not debating the issue (with a re-affirmation of profit guidance).

Just because a stock keeps falling doesn't mean it becomes good value and will bounce back, although BOL looks to be a solid company.

Though its fundamentals (good industry, good margin) are not too bad, I am concerned about its debt/equity ratio and how that would effect its ability to continually "weather" bad storms in a high interest environment.


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## brendan87 (30 November 2007)

I've been a long-time supporter of BOL and have held on from over $4 in beleif that the company was well run, had a solid BS and the long-term fundamentals were in place. Despite the weather-related downgrades and "one offs" I have remained positive. However I am reconsidering my position:
1) if BOL has a truly integrated, flexible 'national' network and accompanying IT as we are told, then unforeseen fluctuations in demand in certain areas (eg. Hunter Valley floods, WA cyclones) should be handled without significant margin destruction.
2) if a range of exogenous factors (such as equipment shortages/port delays etc) has restricted supply, then why hasn't BOL benefited from the economics of scarcity: pricing power. Other companies in similar industries are facing supply constaints and shortages but have profited through higher prices and margins - in fact, this is the underlying economics behind the present mining boom!
3) if cranes are hard to source and there are 12+ month delivery delays for a company like BOL (who has a small sales division) - why hasn't this stimulated demand for crane hiring services? 

Since I have the economics correct - then I am left wondering why BOL hasn't flourished in the current environment? Are there other long-term bulls for Boom Log. or have they already bailed out?


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## bewick (4 December 2007)

I hold BOL and am long for the longterm,I do believe it has been heavily oversold and am getting margin calls at the moment, will have to sort that out.

Similar thing towhat happened to just group in '05 when it went from the mid 3 to 1.80 I held and now i am laughing to the bank over 5 at the moment have doubled my money just regret not buying upmore


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## tolimenso (4 December 2007)

I think pessimism has taken over this stock...it's been oversold as if it was making losses, but it's still profitable. At PER of around 9 and >5% yield  looks good to me...


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## tronic72 (5 December 2007)

I recently lost $1500 in a week on Bol but am tempted to buy back at current prices. Seems too good too miss out on at the moment. The only concern I have, as suggested by a previous poster is their high level of debt.

Over sold? Under valued? I think so. 

What do you guys/gals think?


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## tronic72 (5 December 2007)

brendan87 said:


> I've been a long-time supporter of BOL and have held on from over $4 in beleif that the company was well run, had a solid BS and the long-term fundamentals were in place. Despite the weather-related downgrades and "one offs" I have remained positive. However I am reconsidering my position:
> 1) if BOL has a truly integrated, flexible 'national' network and accompanying IT as we are told, then unforeseen fluctuations in demand in certain areas (eg. Hunter Valley floods, WA cyclones) should be handled without significant margin destruction.
> 2) if a range of exogenous factors (such as equipment shortages/port delays etc) has restricted supply, then why hasn't BOL benefited from the economics of scarcity: pricing power. Other companies in similar industries are facing supply constaints and shortages but have profited through higher prices and margins - in fact, this is the underlying economics behind the present mining boom!
> 3) if cranes are hard to source and there are 12+ month delivery delays for a company like BOL (who has a small sales division) - why hasn't this stimulated demand for crane hiring services?
> ...




Brendan,

Given you've bought in at the $4 mark I'd say you'd be crazy to leave now. You'll suffer a massive loss. 

I've no doubt the company will bounce back and I believe BOL is oversold by the large institutions but by the same token it was many of those large players that pumped the stock up to it's recent highs so one could also say the recent highs were over inflated.

If you can afford to hang on and I'd wait. Easier said than done as I just coped a $1500 loss on BOL over a week but as the current prices have shown it could have been worse.

My 2c


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## bewick (11 December 2007)

Directors have been buying big time recently at these low levels.

They have been buying in market & in sums of 100,000 dollars plus

Look at latest filings


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## ROE (12 December 2007)

Business doesn't look rosy according to the announcement


 port congestion in Queensland and NSW;
• the Queensland 10 year rebuild programme to meet legislative and Queensland
customer requirements;
• strong competition in the access hire market impacting on margins and staff retention;
and
• shortage of heavy equipment supply.

plus they have massive debt on their books so it a double wamping..
Pay higher interest repayment, couple with lower income... no wonder the big funds are bailing out.

And the director purchase is nothing significant it's all on their cosy superannuation account, 100K on these guys account is nothing significant
I consider 500K or more to be a significant figure.


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## 3MT (12 December 2007)

BOL is fair value now, I wouldn't take the director's 100K buying lightly, theses guys shouldn't be that far away from retirement. I think its debt is manageable and its still a profitable company operating at decent margins and is a dominant player in its niche market.

At this stage its hard to gauge if $2 is the new resistance level or support level, but my guess is its going to move sideways from here for a while unless someone spreads a rumour.


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## tronic72 (31 December 2007)

BOL Is good value at the moment. Looking to buy back in. Anyone have any thoughts?

Volume has flattened out which I take to mean those that wanted to bail out have done so. I think we'll see the share price level out (already happening) before it begins to pick up. A good report is all they need to turn things around. The market got sick of disappointment with Boom.

Happy new year all!


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## mrgroundwork (31 January 2008)

Wow this has taken a hammering for a company that is still profitable...

I bought in at around $3, made a decent paper profit, then it tanked... my  stop/loss sold out my position back at $2.70... glad I did that... this thing just keeps going down... 

I feel for the long term holders as this is going to take a long time to recover... 

I am tempted to buy back in, but am just not sold on it yet...


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## tronic72 (31 January 2008)

WOW!!! Almost under a dollar. I'm tempted to buy back in now. Luckily I sold my CFDs a while ago but i don't think anyone could have anticipated the fall from grace of this stock.

Remember only 6-12 months ago when EVERYONE was recommending BOL. Think I'll buy 5K worth when it drops below $1.



Edit: Just noticed Huntley's Recommendation from the 10/12/07 
*Recommendation Impact: The stock is an Accumulate below $2.20 and Buy below $1.9*


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## ROE (31 January 2008)

Time to rename to Bust Logistic when it tanks below 1 buck 
I think anything that has high debt now scare people off ...
It doesn't take long for a company with high debt to go belly up if things dont work out


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## Tristo (31 January 2008)

I've been watching BOL for a long time. Will it ever hit a bottom? It seems too cheap to be true, and if I was in I'd be in for the longer term - but it just keeps going down


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## tronic72 (31 January 2008)

Tristo said:


> I've been watching BOL for a long time. Will it ever hit a bottom? It seems too cheap to be true, and if I was in I'd be in for the longer term - but it just keeps going down




Has hit resistance of sorts at $1.10. If it goes below $1 then it may be anyone's guess. Thing to remember is the company will only make 36.6 million if they are lucky. Their current share price must be hammering their cash flow.

Edit: Just Realised that their current dividend is 11c. Buying this share at it's current price would give you a guaranteed return of 11%. Better than a bank! I'll buy tomorrow.


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## YELNATS (31 January 2008)

tronic72 said:


> Edit: Just Realised that their current dividend is 11c. Buying this share at it's current price would give you a guaranteed return of 11%. Better than a bank! I'll buy tomorrow.




Exactly right. Finished at $1.065 today with a dividend yield of 10.33%, 100% franked. Next dividend due to paid in March.


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## 3MT (31 January 2008)

its got a fair amount of debt and quite little cash in bank.

I hope it does churn out a profit to pay the dividends because a loss would turn this thing into another commander. 

maybe the market knows something we don't? I'm surprised there has been no reverse speeding ticket from the ASX and also no attempts by management to issue an on track statement of some sort.


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## tronic72 (31 January 2008)

3MT said:


> its got a fair amount of debt and quite little cash in bank.
> 
> I hope it does churn out a profit to pay the dividends because a loss would turn this thing into another commander.
> 
> maybe the market knows something we don't? I'm surprised there has been no reverse speeding ticket from the ASX and also no attempts by management to issue an on track statement of some sort.




I saw a report somewhere that said their first quarter would be between 16 & 17 million in profits. Correct me if I'm wrong.

Anyone know who Boom's main competitor is? A friend said there's a competitor undercutting them.


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## Ken (31 January 2008)

The Age had a picture of floods up in Queensland with a Boom Logistics crane under water.


I am no scientist, but the market has priced a number of stocks like this.

Look at BOL, AFG, AIO.

A few stocks that were trading on really high yields.

Downgrade coming I suspect.


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## Buffettology (31 January 2008)

This is certainly an interesting fall from grace!

Ive had my eye on it for a long time now. 

Very big losses!  My brother bought this one and I told him not too, he bought it at $2.90, ha ha, only makes me laugh because he is a multi-millionaire anyways and most things he touches turn to gold!  Maybe he will take my advice next time instead of thinking he is the all-knowing......fat chance of that!


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## Jimminy (31 January 2008)

Check out the profit guidance from Emeco yesterday and you start to see where Boom is also headed...


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## tronic72 (1 February 2008)

It's stating the obvious that BOL has had a huge fall recently but is the company still viable? I think yes. 

If you take the Cyclone out of the equation last year BOL would have done considerably better. Considering the huge increase in commercial construction going on at the moment BOL should be powering ahead. I think management has performed poorly and injecting some new blood is warranted.


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## dj_420 (1 February 2008)

Ken said:


> The Age had a picture of floods up in Queensland with a Boom Logistics crane under water.
> 
> 
> I am no scientist, but the market has priced a number of stocks like this.
> ...




Yeah I saw the nice aerial shot of that and wondered to myself whose crane that was! Lol

BOL have been in a steady downtrend for quite sometime now. IMO only some sort of stability in weather will see the sp stabilise and then begin to appreciate again.


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## rgdk (1 February 2008)

I have had my eye on this one for a while and have watched it become progressively 'better and better' value as shareholder value gets progressively worse and worse. Yet no announcements...

But finally today... a trading halt. My gut feeling is bad news.... but if it is a similar profit downgrade to Emeco, it may provide a buying opportunity (contingent on the company's ongoing viability) as the share price already must have a whopping great downgrade already priced in to have dropped the amount it has, yet you know it will be dumped to a way oversold position at the first confirmation of trouble.


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## Jimminy (1 February 2008)

Rgdk,

They wouldn't need to go into a 3 day trading halt to release their half yearly. 

It couldn't be THAT bad....

My money is on a further acquisition.


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## Scuba (1 February 2008)

Ken said:


> The Age had a picture of floods up in Queensland with a Boom Logistics crane under water.
> ***edited for brevity***






dj_420 said:


> Yeah I saw the nice aerial shot of that and wondered to myself whose crane that was! Lol
> ***edited for brevity***




Guys, can you remember the byline/storyname or post a link from history list in browser, would love a chance to see the article...
with regards,
Scuba


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## bazollie (1 February 2008)

Scuba said:


> Guys, can you remeber the byline/storyname or post a link from history list in browser, would love a chance to see the article...
> with regards,
> Scuba




G'day Scuba , the pictures that are circulating are actually of a boom from Ensham Mine's Dragline. ( 1 of 4 they have on sight) A second hand dragline these days is worth up to $100M plus the cost of getting over from the U.S. & ther re-assembly of the machine. 

I am lead to believe that Boom have a crane adjacent to this Dragline on the ground, reported to be a 300t Crane? I have also heard that there is at least 1 semi-trailer with counterweights for this 300t crane to be loaded onto it. Again I have been told that there is also another crane somewhat smaller, which was to unload the counterweights & then fix these counterweights to the big crane. 

I haven't had this all confirmed, but I have been told by a number of different people associated with the Coal Mine Industry. I guess once the water is pumped out of the Pit , all will become a lot clearer!

Regards

Bazzolie


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## Jimminy (2 February 2008)

Jimminy said:


> Rgdk,
> 
> They wouldn't need to go into a 3 day trading halt to release their half yearly.
> 
> ...




Can I take that back!?

CEO has resigned -announcement out after close. However there is another announcement yet to come before trading halt ends. Ouch!

Yes, it could be THAT bad.


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## Rainmaker2000 (2 February 2008)

Gees, there are some dangerous stocks around at moment........Boom has been quite a popular emerging business and now it appears there are some very nasty  things hanging in the closet......it's the worst scrouge on investing.......insiders selling out driving the price down on information which much of the market does not have..the majority are not even investigated by the 'watchdogs'..I feel for anyone who owns these guys from $4ish as not much has been released operationally to justify this slide.....I would not be touching this situation


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## Scuba (2 February 2008)

bazollie said:


> G'day Scuba , the pictures that are circulating are actually of a boom from Ensham Mine's Dragline. ( 1 of 4 they have on sight) A second hand dragline these days is worth up to $100M plus the cost of getting over from the U.S. & ther re-assembly of the machine.
> 
> I am lead to believe that Boom have a crane adjacent to this Dragline on the ground, reported to be a 300t Crane? I have also heard that there is at least 1 semi-trailer with counterweights for this 300t crane to be loaded onto it. Again I have been told that there is also another crane somewhat smaller, which was to unload the counterweights & then fix these counterweights to the big crane.
> 
> ...




Sounds like it could be a superlift to me... 2 x lattice booms plus additional counterweight for lifting maximum lift capacity? (Who knows, that's why I was hoping someone could post a link or show me a picture...)
Regards,
Scuba


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## Jimminy (2 February 2008)

Rainmaker2000 said:


> insiders selling out driving the price down on information which much of the market does not have..the majority are not even investigated by the 'watchdogs'..I feel for anyone who owns these guys from $4ish as not much has been released operationally to justify this slide.....I would not be touching this situation




Not wrong - I traded this sucessfully a few times whilst it was in the 2.60 - 3.10 range....Sold out at 2.95 and have watched it fall, constantly droppping my buy price as it approached it.

Don't even have a buy in now but continue to watch the stock daily.

It has certainly been insider knowledge for quite some time now.


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## tronic72 (2 February 2008)

I tend to agree that BOL is on shaky ground at the moment (pardon the pun). 

One would expect that BOL would have insurance for these sorts of natural disasters. Can anyone confirm this?

Shame they aren't providing the market with more information as it's  impossible to judge how they are currently tracking.

I do think that many stocks are being hammered on speculation.


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## Judd (2 February 2008)

Again, it could be that old bug bear of capital intensive companies.  Debt.  Seems its debt to equity ratio is 80%.  That's some interest to pay in this fragile economic climate.


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## Jimminy (3 February 2008)

Judd said:


> Again, it could be that old bug bear of capital intensive companies.  Debt.  Seems its debt to equity ratio is 80%.  That's some interest to pay in this fragile economic climate.




I think their cash flow (previous) comfortably covers the debt....

I don't think it will be debt....just that a strategic review will be required and that their profit guidance from last year will be again downgraded.

What a fall from grace. Some large holders has done some big money on this stock. The Holt family (based in Toowoomba) who sold Holts cranes into Boom at the IPO for $0.80c had 10m shares....records shows that they still have over 4m of these. Ouch.


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## BuyandHold (4 February 2008)

See link for article on Ensham and its flooded mine.

http://www.miningitv.com/stories/35669,1143-17127,48898.html

Another link with pictures.

http://www.abc.net.au/capricornia/stories/s2144038.htm?backyard

I imagine Ensham would be liable for any capital and income loss associated with the crane.


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## Buffettology (5 February 2008)

Preliminary half yearly figures released, worse than expected, but share price shot up 17%.  

Expectations must have been that half yearly profits were going to be far worse than expected!  

Sorry, a lot of "expected" in there, but that seems to be what is really driving this stock at the moment!


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## brendan87 (5 February 2008)

I think today has dragged all the skeletons out of the closet for BOL. 

- We had the much anticipated profit downgrade, which wasn't *that* bad. This has removed alot of uncertainty that has been weighing on the stock. 

- The accounting changes were not too much of a surprise given alot of analysts doubted BOL's depreciation figures anyway - although the amount of adjustment was quite large given the adjustments were allegedly only to 4% of BOL's assets. 

- We had clarification of the effect of the QLD floods and an all-inclusive hard profit target for the full year. This was unlike the previous guidance for a 'stronger' second half, with no digits.

- Re-assurance on funding position (despite disclosure in the FY06-07 report being adequate)

Although I have tried to pick the bottom from this dog many times since its fall from grace (and been wrong, and piad dearly for it) - I'm going to put it out there that the long slide in BOL's SP has bottomed today at 0.955  

Today's announcement answers alot of questions, resolves some key issues that have been lingering in the minds of investors and seems to (hopefully) point to greater transparency and communication. In my opinion, this has been a big lesson in how there is a huge monetary cost to *uncertainty* and that failing to be up-front and transparent with shareholders has cost the SP far more than if managment had responded faster to market speculation rather than waiting for an ASX Price Query before keeping shareholders informed. I very much understand why shareholders lost so much faith in BOL following the Query - I thought it showed great disrespect to already hard-done-by shareholders in BOL.

Despite my gut feeling (which is more often wrong that right ), I am not going to make the same mistake again and throw good money after bad! BOL is the big dog of my portfolio and I will hold on to my losses for the medium term. Although the road to recovery will be long and investor condfidence painstaking to win back (as the board fully deserves), I think the business still has alot of potential and the external conditions are good for it. Anyone else looking forward to new management?


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## Rainmaker2000 (5 February 2008)

I think people like certainty......specially with a spiralling share price.......thing is though, that is earning per share of about 9 cents for the half which places BOL on a very low PE.........people must think there is more bad news to come....


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## Jimminy (5 February 2008)

yes I think they announced what most had expected....we all new it was coming and it wasn't worse than expected which satisfies the market.

Certainly better opportunities in the short-medium term than this stock - unless of course you are carrying losses, which can still be good depending upon your personal position.

I think this might go lower as I wouldn't really want to buy in with profit guidance like that.


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## Libretto (13 February 2008)

Does anybody have an idea on what the dividend wil be this half?

Also when will they announce the ex-date?


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## Jimminy (15 February 2008)

anyone got a life raft - this stock has been under without air for some time, I think it might have cardiac arrest shortly and die!!

76.5c ouch - hope there is no one holding this.


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## dj_420 (15 February 2008)

Jimminy said:


> anyone got a life raft - this stock has been under without air for some time, I think it might have cardiac arrest shortly and die!!
> 
> 76.5c ouch - hope there is no one holding this.




Not holding but looking for a confirmed trend change and then Ill be keen to jump on board. As long as profits havent been completely ruined by storms then looks oversold.


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## Jimminy (15 February 2008)

dj_420 said:


> Not holding but looking for a confirmed trend change and then Ill be keen to jump on board. As long as profits havent been completely ruined by storms then looks oversold.




flooding in Mackay, Qld overnight will dent further the profit for next 6 months....possibly behind today's selling.


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## Sean K (16 February 2008)

Hooly dooly, this stock has been smashed. 

I remember reading an article some time ago in an investment mag saying how great they were, tied to the infrastructure boom and all....

Cripes, what's really wrong???

Any idea who might buy them out, or are they going to administration??


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## Buffettology (16 February 2008)

Anybody relate global warming and a change in weather patterns, to all the problems BOL is experiencing?  (makes sense, floods, hurricanes etc).  

I remember one analyst I used to work with, saying steer clear of companies like this, or insurance businesses, as they are going to cop a LOT due to these weather patterns starting to become mixed up.  

Didnt take an overly large amount of notice, but perhaps he is onto something..........

Any scientists here...............


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## Rainmaker2000 (16 February 2008)

I think global warming is the last of Bol's problems....they just have a very capital intensive business and thus extremely susceptible to cycle..add to that sub par management...besides jury is still out on climate change..hehe


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## Rocket man (19 February 2008)

Going for a run today up 30% 

Recent Announcements :
- Director buying on mkt 50K worth
- WBC becoming substantial holder

Has been recently valued around the $2.50 mark

Im keeping an eye on this one


----------



## MRC & Co (19 February 2008)

Yeh, I was watching this run up today!  

Just insane some of this activity lately!  

What else can you say?  Director buying and change in substantial holding should not push a share price up like this!


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## prawn_86 (19 February 2008)

One could argue that it has been rather oversold.

Although i havnt done an analysis of these guys for a while...


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## ianablue (30 April 2008)

Appointment of new CEO well received by market today with 10% increase on sp in early trading today.


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## greenfs (17 June 2008)

It has been suggested to me that BOL is a takeover play on the horizon and I have put my toe in the water to buy some shares at an average entry price of $0.98. Still going down. I hope my advisor is on the ball.

Fundamentals look OK but time will tell given the company is carrying reasonable debt levels.


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## brendan87 (18 June 2008)

I wonder when the downgrades will end? They downgraded from 29-30m to 22m since Feb. Sounds like the business is a wreck.


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## DionM (25 June 2008)

Has BOL found a bottom in the 70c-80c range?  It's been trading there for a little while (as well as earlier this year) - seems to be some support in the area?

Recent profit downgrade hasn't helped, and while they do have some debt it doesn't seem to be too big - but is it the reason for the SP falling?

Seems a reasonable dividend too (but I'v learnt not to 'count on' those things after BBP and CNP!).  

McAleese transport also recently popped up on the substantial shareholders list http://www.mcaleese.com.au/ who are a regional transport company in the Central Qld area, plus WBC / BT Invest seemed happy to top up recently.

Hogan and partners also have it rated as a spec buy.

It all sounds positive, except for the now-poison chalis of debt ....


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## MRC & Co (25 June 2008)

Could well have found a bottom there.

As you say, traded there earlier in the year before retracing and looks like accumulation came in at that point also.

Same as is happening here, volume increasing, definately some buying support out there.

Could be a double bottom reversal.  

A lot comes down to the overall market and the annual report though.  Until a big move south on the overall market or some very bad news, think this one should hold support above 70c.  If it hit's that point and volume increases downwards, a short looks like the better option.


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## cooper208 (12 August 2008)

This one has sprung back into life over the last few weeks. Could call earlier from a previous post about it forming a base in the 70-80's.
It had a kick up of 20% with a very good follow up consolidation day finishing on it's highs. Westpac/BT have been accumulating heavily over the last month and now up to about 11% holding from memory. That is a sizeable stake for a small company.
Interesting to see what happens with this one over the next month or two.


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## DionM (19 August 2008)

Yep it certainly has sprung up.  I should have followed my own advice and bought in the 70c range, but I didn't.


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## Pioupiou (30 August 2008)

I hold BOL, and I am way out of pocket because I initially bought them at about $2.50 on average.  I bought BOL then (in the middle of 2007) because they supplied services to infrastructure builders and miners, and I thought that this was a good theme, and my son held them, and he had done well.  I was new to the game, so I did not do the research that I now do.  There is no better teacher than the loss of thousands of dollars.   In about March 2008 I bought 11,100 of them at 88 cents 

Anyhow, the reality now is the facts that now pertain to BOL, including its current share price (BOL closed at $1.195 today, Friday, 29.8/08).

Starting with the big-picture stuff, consider the following:

a)	BOL supplies to major mining and infrastructure builders – that is good.
b)	Cranes are in short supply, which obviates the need for BOL to cut prices, and it makes it difficult for users to buy cranes for quick delivery – these factors are good for BOL.
c)	Money is tight, so crane users do not wish to invest in cranes when they can hire them – that is good for BOL
d)	BOL expanded too quickly, and experienced difficulty digesting an acquisition – a valuable, if expensive, learning experience that should make BOL’s management smarter in future – firms that have been to the University of Hard Knocks often do well in later life.
e)	BOL’s business generates a good cash flow, so banks are not averse to lending BOL money, and if BOL needs to borrow for equipment, the equipment purchased provides good collateral.  If BOL cools its pace of expansion, it can reduce the need to borrow.
f)	The MD bought 200,000 shares at $217,000 recently – that is a good sign.      

Now let us look at the numbers.

The statutory profit was $18.6 million, but this included corrections from earlier periods and reducing intangibles in the balance sheet.  The real operating profit was $22.2 million.  This means we should normalize the EPS of 10.9 cents by that ratio to get 13 cents.  The dividend per share was 5.5 (50% of the EPS), so we can alter this to 6.5 cents.  I ignore the bad-weather excuses that BOL seems to trundle out with monotonous regularity – storms are normal 

If we presume modest growth, then a Price-Earnings ratio of 10 is not out of court, and thus we get a share price of $1.30.  This is simplistic, but it is a start.  If you picked a PE ratio of 9, then you would get $1.17, so somewhere between $1.15 and $1.30 is probably as good a guesstimate as any.  BOL closed at $1.195 today (Friday 29.8/08), so it seems fairly reasonably priced.  Of couse, some good news could pop out of the woodwork (e.g., a synergistic merger that optimizes depot utilization), and give us an upside surprise.

Tutt Bryant (TBG) is to a degree in the same line of business as BOL, and buying TBG might be a better option.  TBG’s EPS is 20.5 and its dividend per share is 8 cents.  TBG has a better recent record than BOL, so its PE ratio could be a tad higher than BOLs.  A target price between $2.00 and $2.20 would seem reasonable.  It closed at $1.46 today.   I do not hold TBG.

Pioupiou


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## pointr (30 August 2008)

Well BOL owes us $3.14 / share, or perhaps it owes us nothing because I made the choice to buy at that price. I think there is a good fundamental story here. Our industries and projects need cranes which hopefully BOL can provide. and the new manager right the ship financially. I don't expect to see $3.14 again too quickly


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## oldblue (30 August 2008)

Now don't laugh, but I have a few shares in an almost worthless crane hire company called Verticon - VGP. So unloved that nobody has bothered to start a thread for them.
I wonder if BOL would be interested in taking them off our hands?


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## Pioupiou (7 September 2008)

Provided the sector wherein a business makes its money is healthy, and the business model is sound, I like a share that has had a smack in the mouth for being too hubristic, but which remains otherwise financially hale, and where the managers are smart enough to realise the errors of the past and take corrective action.  In my view BOL fits into this theme, so it might redeem itself.  I have bought into a few shares on this smack-in-the-mouth basis, and it has always worked.  DOW is one recent buy that springs to mind.

In these set-back situations, and particularly if a new CEO takes control, there is often a major clean-up, which can include writing down assets and intangibles and increasing provisions, and (perish the thought) pushing revenue into a later year and pulling expenses into the current year.  In this way the firm has one diabolical year, which can often be blamed on a situation and/or a person that/who is now history.  Thereafter the firm’s performance looks very good, the CEO gets a fine performance reward and the shareholders are happy.  This is why I bought ANZ – Mike Smith, the new CEO, might want to shine in his second year at the helm, and reversing some over provisioning would help.  

Although BOL is reasonably priced when its SP is about $1.20, or less, if its EPS, dividend payment and debt-related ratios improve at the same time that the All Ords index moves out of its current slough, then the SP will improve by having both the EPS and PER rising.  I am probably a dreamer, but this is what I think will happen, and so I hold onto my BOL shares, which I watch like a hawk.

As an aside, one thing that seems odd about BOL is that directors have often bought shares, and the SP has continued to fall.  Maybe they too have been the victims of the old mushroom treatment (keep them in the dark and feed them horse excretement).


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## Out Too Soon (10 September 2009)

I like this chart so much I bought the company  Oh well a tiny bit of it 
 Posts have been very quite on it for a while, Inc charts found it for me
  Cross fingers this month is shaping up very nicely for a change :chimney


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## Out Too Soon (11 September 2009)

Out Too Soon said:


> View attachment 33092
> 
> 
> I like this chart so much I bought the company  Oh well a tiny bit of it
> ...




Such enthusiasm & euphoria  within half an hour the sp dropped almost 10%
heres the same chart with added humble pie in face end bit. 
	

		
			
		

		
	



This is what you call the OTS BUY effect 
Still holding, just above stop loss 
think things should go according to script from here (up)


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## Dreadweave (25 September 2009)

Out Too Soon said:


> Such enthusiasm & euphoria  within half an hour the sp dropped almost 10%
> heres the same chart with added humble pie in face end bit.
> 
> 
> ...




I hold @ .555 Currently and Im feeling good about this stock. I see their cranes everywhere, and all their equipment on sites all over Melbourne. Also they currently have some large contracts In the latrobe valley where their only competition is a small mom n pop crane hire buisness who cant really supply the numbers needed for the 5 local power stations, paper mill, char plant and brickett factory maintenance projects.

They also have new contracts with 'Vestas energy' to provide logistics for the construction of wind towers, and have purchased new mobile tower cranes for the job.


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## Dreadweave (12 October 2009)

BOL surge almost 7% today with no posted news, This follows the previous day of strong growth. Anyone got an explanation for this?

edit: I just read back at 'Out too soon's" charts,  seems your prediction was right !!  nice job. lets hope it keeps climbing.


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## Out Too Soon (15 October 2009)

Dreadweave said:


> BOL surge almost 7% today with no posted news, This follows the previous day of strong growth. Anyone got an explanation for this?
> 
> edit: I just read back at 'Out too soon's" charts,  seems your prediction was right !!  nice job. lets hope it keeps climbing.




Well it came right after it scared me  luckily I held on 

BOOM!




God I love bull markets 

Now could we have some clever analysis from ppl who use Elliott wave or whatever 'cause I've got no idea where to set a stop loss or profit trigger on this  (& I don't want to be Out Too Soon  )


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## Out Too Soon (23 October 2009)

Out Too Soon said:


> Well it came right after it scared me  luckily I held on
> 
> BOOM!
> View attachment 33953
> ...




Once again Boom is dropped like a hot potato last thing friday ( hmm! I should be buying BOL friday just before the bell ) This time it triggered my Stop & I'm out at a small profit  better than a loss 

PS could've done with a crystal ball, be interesting to see what happens next friday.


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## Dreadweave (24 October 2009)

Out Too Soon said:


> Once again Boom is dropped like a hot potato last thing friday ( hmm! I should be buying BOL friday just before the bell ) This time it triggered my Stop & I'm out at a small profit  better than a loss
> 
> PS could've done with a crystal ball, be interesting to see what happens next friday.




Word on the street in the construction Industry is that people are recommending to not buy BOL, or to sell out if you hold.

My father who has been working in the industry for 30 years explained to me that many people believe a recent acquisition made by boom is too unprofitable and is dragging them down.

He couldn't be specific about the acquisition and Im sure that many of the people talking about it don't actually know.  I think its one of those rumours that spreads around an industry like wildfire. Fueled by strong feelings because alot of people in the industry hold BOL.

Having worked in construction for several years myself I can actually see this idea as holding some serious weight. Basically because of the number of people holding BOL from years ago when it was at its high point. These people may be finally giving up and cutting their losses. And now maby making up excuses and rumour to justify their decisions.

I remember some years ago there was big talk in the industry that Boom would boom  and of course they soon did as many people invested.

I fear that this may be the same thing again, but in reverse.

edit: Please be sure to take this all with a grain of salt though as like I said, this Is rumours with no real basis coming to me third hand from a construction worker who has never owned a stock in his life


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## TheAbyss (19 November 2009)

Dreadweave said:


> Word on the street in the construction Industry is that people are recommending to not buy BOL, or to sell out if you hold.
> 
> My father who has been working in the industry for 30 years explained to me that many people believe a recent acquisition made by boom is too unprofitable and is dragging them down.
> 
> He couldn't be specific about the acquisition and Im sure that many of the people talking about it don't actually know.  I think its one of those rumours that spreads around an industry like wildfire. Fueled by strong feelings because alot of people in the industry hold BOL.




My tip would be he is referring to the Sherrin buy out. The BOL sp has been terrible ever since.

More importantly, what do people make of the current circumstances? We have a capital raising with a retail component of 30 cents a share. Shares due to re open tomorrow.

On the flip side, McAleese have put a buy out  offer on the table at 60 cents per share which has been rejected.

Be an interesting open tomorrow for sure. Current sp is 47 cents. My guess is the sp will fall as the 30 cent price is real where as BOL have rejected a 60 cent buy out. A lot more left to play out here for sure.


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## TheAbyss (20 November 2009)

Sp down 14% to 40 cents. 

30 cents before 15 December unless McAleese make another offer i suspect. Cant see why they would though as they can buy on market for less than the 60 cents they have already offered.

Surely Boom could have let McAleese increase holding from the current 12.5% to reduce the capitalisation requirement? 30 cents vs the 60 offered makes the management look pretty selfish in my view.

thoughts?


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## skyQuake (20 November 2009)

TheAbyss said:


> Sp down 14% to 40 cents.
> 
> 30 cents before 15 December unless McAleese make another offer i suspect. Cant see why they would though as they can buy on market for less than the 60 cents they have already offered.
> 
> ...




BOL management must be fairly confident about going forward then. Bid is still below NTA so they are playing for a turnaround. 
The 60c bid was pre-dilution. Would be worth less now. Punters still think its good though, making it rally 9% (terp = 38.5)


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## skc (20 November 2009)

Pretty solid day for BOL... The SP is now resting on a support zone around 39-41c, which also happens to be 62% retracement for the up leg from ~25c to 70c. Sorry don't have a good chart...

I posted a little about the raising here. https://www.aussiestockforums.com/forums/showpost.php?p=511676&postcount=99

Fundamentally their story is compelling if you believe in a strong recovery in construction / mining activities. High fixed costs and assets, so any incremental utilisation falls straight to the bottom line.

It's always interesting reading company presentations and you can get a glimpse of what kind of people are running the company. They repeatedly mention some mighty large crawler crane being the first in Australia etc... I am betting they are engineers who like their big toys.


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## tronic72 (2 February 2010)

BOOM LOGISTICS ANNOUNCES 3 YEAR CONTRACT TO SUPPLY
CRANES AND SERVICES TO RIO TINTO
Boom Logistics (BOOM), Australia’s leading provider of cranage and related
industrial services, today announced that it has secured a three year panel
contract to supply cranes and associated services to Rio Tinto’s Iron Ore
operations, with two three year options to extend.
The scope of works will see BOOM utilise its existing fleet of cranes in
Australia’s North West for major shutdown and maintenance works across ten
major Rio Tinto mining operations in the Pilbara region.
Brenden Mitchell, CEO of Boom Logistics, said: “This new business
opportunity consolidates our position for growth in the North West of WA and
reinforces BOOM as a major provider to industry leaders in the region. This is
a significant step in building our long term sustainable revenue from the
resources sector. We estimate the revenue from this contract to be in the
vicinity of $20m over the next 3 years.”
“The Rio Tinto contract follows BOOM signing major contracts in December
2009 with TDK, a $4m contract to supply cranes and services for the Barrow
Island Construction Village for the Gorgon Project, the Newmont Asia Pacific’s
new Boddington Gold project in WA and the $3m contract with Sandvik Mining
and Construction at the Port Waratah Coal Services expansion project in
NSW,” said Mr Mitchell.


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## matt1987 (3 February 2010)

does anyone have any opinions on how the sp will hold up after the record date for the share purchase place (at 30c ... record date is friday).


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## skc (3 February 2010)

matt1987 said:


> does anyone have any opinions on how the sp will hold up after the record date for the share purchase place (at 30c ... record date is friday).




Record day? Do you mean closing day?

My guess is nothing on the closing day. This SPP will be heavily over subscribed and most likely scaled back. So people can't really short ahead of receiving the shares (it's not easy to find a broker who let you short this anyway).

Expect a bit of downward pressure on the day the shares are available for trading however. But more will probably depend on the overall market.


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## skyQuake (3 February 2010)

skc said:


> Record day? Do you mean closing day?
> 
> My guess is nothing on the closing day. This SPP will be heavily over subscribed and most likely scaled back. So people can't really short ahead of receiving the shares (it's not easy to find a broker who let you short this anyway).
> 
> Expect a bit of downward pressure on the day the shares are available for trading however. But more will probably depend on the overall market.




yeh the record date was last year!

SKC i dont think this will be that heavily oversubscribed as it was not an 'open' SPP - punters can't jump in before the record date. Going by entitlement takeup it wasn't too bad.


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## skc (3 February 2010)

skyQuake said:


> yeh the record date was last year!
> 
> SKC i dont think this will be that heavily oversubscribed as it was not an 'open' SPP - punters can't jump in before the record date. Going by entitlement takeup it wasn't too bad.




Yes fair point. In fact I was surprised that they backdated the SPP. My wife now have a $500 parcel but not the entitlement.

The rights entitlement was unbelievably poor considering the share price was holding well above 30c at the time.


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## matt1987 (3 February 2010)

skyQuake said:


> yeh the record date was last year!
> 
> SKC i dont think this will be that heavily oversubscribed as it was not an 'open' SPP - punters can't jump in before the record date. Going by entitlement takeup it wasn't too bad.




sorry guys ... meant the closing date. had an early start this morning - not thinking straight!

thats a good point though about how well the sp has held up after the entitlement offer. hoping for the same this time around!


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## drunkestdriver (25 April 2010)

does anyone have any info on this stock. I bought it at 46c and has just dived ever since. ??                                                    .


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## oldblue (26 April 2010)

drunkestdriver said:


> does anyone have any info on this stock. I bought it at 46c and has just dived ever since. ??                                                    .




BOL was trading around 46c in February when the company downgraded profit expectations for the year to the lower level of previous guidance.

The market appears to have believed them. Do you have reason to expect otherwise?


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## Pioupiou (8 March 2012)

*Director buys*

Appendix 3Y announced 6/03/2012
John Robinson [Rodney John Robinson]
Number acquired 40,000
Value/Consideration $10,400

Is BOL's SP on an upward track?


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## tinhat (19 April 2012)

*Re: Director buys*



Pioupiou said:


> Appendix 3Y announced 6/03/2012
> John Robinson [Rodney John Robinson]
> Number acquired 40,000
> Value/Consideration $10,400
> ...




Let's hope so, I thought I'd missed out on this one (my buy signal came up a couple of weeks ago but I didn't have the money to put into it). Bought today. Let's hope the pull-back is just that. My first target is 0.38. I owned BOL previously and sold in June 2010 for 43c.

I haven't been following BOL closely but they seem to be getting their balance sheet and their business sorted out slowly. Hopefully the Olympic Dam contract will give them some impetus with the rest of their quote book.


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## tinhat (16 August 2012)

I haven't read the report yet, but the market obviously likes it. The stock is up over 37% this week. It will be interesting to see if it can manage a close above 0.33 in the coming weeks.

http://www.smh.com.au/business/unde...r-yet-for-mining-services-20120815-247nn.html


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## Pioupiou (24 September 2012)

tinhat said:


> I haven't read the report yet, but the market obviously likes it. The stock is up over 37% this week. It will be interesting to see if it can manage a close above 0.33 in the coming weeks.
> 
> http://www.smh.com.au/business/unde...r-yet-for-mining-services-20120815-247nn.html




Look at http://in.reuters.com/article/2012/08/31/midcap-boom-idINL4E8JV26T20120831

At 34 cents today, BOL is selling below its NTA. Consider this comment in annual report, "The  overall growth in our business translated to an increase in Net Tangible Asset backing per share from 48 cents to 52 cents by year end."

BOL makes its money from established mines, so the downturn in exploration and firing up greenfield mines will not hurt it, whereas the incentive for existing miners and brownfield new starts to hold back on capital expenditure will conduce them to hire cranes and the like.  If this is not a multi bagger at current SP of about 34 cents, then my rooster is a kipper.

I bought into BOL years ago for a silly reason, and lost value (on paper).  I am now hopeful of recovering some of the on-paper losses.


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## tinhat (24 September 2012)

I couldn't resist selling at 38c on 13/9/12 (bought for 28c on 19/4/12). 38c was the support before the price turned south in May last year. I might buy back in. I'm just generally weary though of companies with such low returns on assets (5.3%) and equity (8.6%). Having said that, the price graph doesn't reflect that on most metrics the fundamentals have been improving for BOL over the past couple of years. ROA, ROE, EPS and EPS growth are all pointing up. Earnings growth forecasts provide forward PEs falling to 6.4 this financial year and <6 next financial year. If risk appetite increases and if buyers start discriminating more between mining service providers demand could take off. A lot of trading went on between 36c and 45c in 2010/11 and so there might be some holders who will be happy to get out at break even through that range.

I'll be interested to hear of any further analysis you might perform Pioupiou. Also, please keep us updated about your rooster.


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## Ves (24 September 2012)

Pioupiou said:


> At 34 cents today, BOL is selling below its NTA.



This is a horrible business - something tells me that the assets are not worth as much as the balance sheet says there are, especially not if it goes belly up.

What do you think the assets are worth?


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## bullhunter (1 June 2013)

A current market cap of $52 million. Seems low. I wonder if they are a take-over target.


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## tinhat (19 August 2013)

BOL has doubled since it bottomed, and up 25% in two weeks. It's on a firm trend at the moment. I jumped on today having mulled over their report. They've thrown a lot of money into capex to restructure the fleet. Despite the downturn revenue is holding up and they reckon 2014 will be better for business than 2013 - especially client spending on maintenance. They don't seem afraid to restructure their workforce and are negotiating a new enterprise bargaining agreement at a good time I would suggest. Will give the benefit of doubt to the management and see where the share price ends up in the medium term. Stop loss at 0.12


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## pixel (22 October 2013)

tinhat said:


> BOL has doubled since it bottomed, and up 25% in two weeks. It's on a firm trend at the moment. I jumped on today having mulled over their report. They've thrown a lot of money into capex to restructure the fleet. Despite the downturn revenue is holding up and they reckon 2014 will be better for business than 2013 - especially client spending on maintenance. They don't seem afraid to restructure their workforce and are negotiating a new enterprise bargaining agreement at a good time I would suggest. Will give the benefit of doubt to the management and see where the share price ends up in the medium term. Stop loss at 0.12




nice run, tinhat 





Did you take profit yet? Or have you attended today's AGM?
Looks like some lively debates going on, judging by the split votes and first strike against remuneration.
http://www.asx.com.au/asx/statistics/displayAnnouncement.do?display=pdf&idsId=01455887


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## tinhat (23 October 2013)

Hi Pixel. Yes it is. Lots of stocks making nice runs. For the moment at least, I seem to be getting better at picking momentum: BOL, BCI, CDU?, MIN, MLD, MML?, NHW, SOM.

As I mentioned in another thread the other day, I don't hold any conviction over BOL and it doesn't pay a divi, so it was purely a momentum play for CG. I still look at the fundamentals and "the story" of any company I buy into.

Mate, I wish I was spending my time at AGMs having cups of tea. No rest for the wicked I am afraid. I'm half way through screeding a fall onto a 180sqm flat concrete roof which is also a patio, which I then have to tile over (floor tiles). The weather in Sydney at the moment is the exact opposite of what I would like right now. Maybe if some of those shares I mentioned end up as double baggers I might be able to hire some tradesmen, but until then...

Thanks for the info about the first strike. A first strike is not a bad thing for shareholders in my opinion. In general they seem to be doing their job.

This company has a NTA per share of $0.50 but generates only 3% return on those assets to achieve a $0.02 pre-tax EPS. I hope the company can pull off a turn-around. I may or may not be owning shares when it does.


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## Hoborg (22 June 2014)

If this is too long, I apologise. I'm simply posting my analysis here for anyone to pick apart (please do). Here goes...

Let me start with this:


Ves said:


> This is a horrible business - something tells me that the assets are not worth as much as the balance sheet says there are, especially not if it goes belly up.
> 
> What do you think the assets are worth?




I realise Ves' post is now close to two years old, but given the 'manage for cash' scenario that management are aiming for, it's quite a valid question... but let me twist it a bit, and pose the question as:
_As a shareholder, at what value do these assets make this company worthwhile?_

*First, value of assets:*
I took the most recent balance sheet and applied a multiplier on current assets to find recovery rate on each, assuming a gloomy scenario:

- Cash at 100% = $5,850
- Receivables recovered at 90% = $47,480 (depends on client base - big miners not a problem)
- Inventories at 70% = $291
- Prepayments at 90% = $3,617 (depends on suppliers - not sure of who they are at this point, but not a huge impact)
- Assets for Sale @ 50% = $3,530
- Income Tax Receivable at 100% = $4,450

*Total Current Assets after adjustment = $65,217*

Next, I calculated the required sale price on non-current assets to pay off debt and return capital to shareholders at current price (13.5c per share, Market Cap 64m):

Total Liabilities = $158,016
Operating Lease Commitments = $30,759
*Total Liabilities with operating lease = $188,775*


So, Total Liabilities (op lease incl) - Total Current Assets = $123,558 (lets call this _'Remaining Liabilities'_)
Total Non Current Assets = $328,710
Total Market Cap = $64,000
(Fraction of Remaining Liabilities + Market Cap) to Non-Current Assets = ($123,558+64,000)/$328,710 = *57%*


So, for the company to pay off all debts (if done without calculating interest) and return capital equal to the current share price (13.5c) to the shareholder, the assets would need to sell at 57% of their balance sheet value - and this is without factoring in running/management costs. 
Given the depreciation rates the company use (10/20 year terms on cranes/vehicles) and the macro environment, I'm not 100% sold on this... even though there have been no recent impairments relating to assets sold. 

However, there's still operating cash flow to consider:


*Cash Flow*

BOL are managing for cash flow, and have adjusted their capex to reflect this.

- In FY2013, total capex on new equipment was 62.34m
- In first half FY2014, total capex on new equipment was 7.8m (focus on 'non-specialised equipment). No spend on software
- In second half FY2014, 'committed' capex on new equipment is 3.2m.

_So there's already an 11m outflow of cash..._

Asset sales were $9.9m for the half (which was the stated target for the full year), which are ahead of target.

Let's assume half of this figure for 2nd half asset sales, as "assets for sale" have decreased by 30%. So another 4.9m cash flow.
_That's a 14.8m cash inflow_

And finally, operating cash flow for the half was $11.4m.

The third quarter is always weaker (as recently stated), resulting in a 1.8m EBIT loss. Adjusting for quarterly interest payments (2.4m) and quarterly depreciation at the rate stated in the first half (5.5m), cash flow was 1.25m for the quarter... not great.

And assuming Q4 resembles Q1 and Q2 (as it has over previous years), cash flow should be 5.7m

_Total Operating Cash flow for FY14 = 18.35m_


_Total cash flow_ = 14.8 + 18.35 - 11 = 22.15
Share price as a multiple of cash flow = 64m / 22.15m = *2.9 times*

(This figure looks great, but how is my 4th quarter cash flow estimate? And will revenues fall further in coming years?

*Linking the Two*

The two sections above don't really flow, until you treat the first as the 'minimum required' on asset sales, and the second as 'expected' cash flow.

Of course, this is built on a few assumptions, these being:
- Assets can be sold at 57% of listed value
- Company can remain cash flow positive through operations
- Operating cash flow doesn't continue to plummet... 11.35m first half vs 26.9m pcp (Coal prices anyone? And will iron ore prices hit just as hard?)

Unknowns:
- Given 'wet-hire' (hire of cranes with labour and related equipment) requires staff on the books, how many crane operators are kept, and for how long, as work dries up?
- What percentage of revenue is not iron ore/coal related? (Can't find geographical split, and everything is listed as one segment)
- What impact have recent redundancies had (first half, 80 people made redundant, from 'over' 1000 employees)
- How reliable are assumptions/multipliers on current assets?


In summary: I think I still need to understand future cash flows a little better before I can make a call on this one.
Again, apologies for the long post...

I would very much appreciate if people could point out the flaws in this analysis - I'm treating it as a learning exercise.

Thanks


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## Hoborg (22 June 2014)

And I should have mentioned earlier, I investigated this after reading someone else's investment case, which can be found here:

http://socksorstocks.blogspot.com.au/2014/02/bought-boom.html


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## KnowThePast (22 June 2014)

Hoborg said:


> If this is too long, I apologise. I'm simply posting my analysis here for anyone to pick apart (please do). Here goes...




Hi Hoborg,

That's brilliant, and very similar to the analysis I've done a few months ago, after which I bought some BOL shares. 

The key, is, of course, to understand the future cash flows/profitability. I broke it down into 4 possibilities.

1. Things stay roughly as they are. Management continues to sell off assets at reasonable prices until they reach a base level that has an adequate utilisation rate and profitability.
2. Things continue to deteriorate, due to industry conditions and surplus assets. Management is forced into selling some assetse at a loss, possibly < 58% of value to stay in business. At some point, this has to reverse.
3. Things continue to deteriorate, due to company specific problems. This has a strong possibility of reducing value to zero.
4. Conditions or utilisation rate improves and reversion to mean occurs.

Placing a rough estimate on odds and value of each scenario made me comfortable that risk/reward ratio was good enough. 

P.S. Given that the company is reducing maintenance spend, I would expect future asset sales to be at less favourable prices...


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## sptrawler (25 December 2014)

I was away caravanning in the wilderness, when I bumped into a crane driver. Being a BOL holder, I got chatting with him, I asked why Boom is struggling.
His response was Warren Buffet bought out Freo Cranes, and are undercutting everyone.

Well when I returned home, sure enough.
http://www.freogroup.com.au/

Have a look in the bottom left corner of the home page.

If Berkshire Hathaway, are subsidising Freo Cranes, Boom are going to struggle.IMO

I'm still holding, but nervous.


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## peter2 (14 September 2020)

BOL Boom Logistics continues to struggle.  Last year they had revenue of 185 Mill and lost money (-17M) again. 

They've never recovered from the GFC.  Since 2018 BOL has failed to get ahead. IMO management must be inept. 






Is there a possible BO-HR of 0.11 ? It's not going into any of my portfolios.


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