# Second GFC Begins: Greece



## Garpal Gumnut (30 January 2010)

The Eurozone has long been an inefficient entity where farmers pour milk down drains and leave fruit rotting on the ground, to access subsidies from Brussels.

The chickens are finally coming home to roost.

Germany is none too happy to rescue underperforming economies like Greece and Bulgaria and this may lead to a financial crisis in the EU

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/...s-Germany-warns-of-fatal-eurozone-crisis.html

I'd read this article if you have any funds in Europe. It may be worthwhile getting them out while you can.

gg


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## GumbyLearner (30 January 2010)

*Re: Second GFC Begins Greece*

Buy physical gold, silver or platinum.

The euro will be toast within 5(minimum of chips) Greek calculation
-10 years(baguette calculation) Euro calculation.


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## Sean K (30 January 2010)

It does seem that we've only seen the start of this little situation.

Looking forward to see more petrol being poored on the fire to try and put it out.


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## prawn_86 (30 January 2010)

This has been known for some time, and it is what has pushed the AUD to all time highs against the Euro recently. Will be interesting to see how it develops, but its def putting the EUR under a heap of pressure


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## Garpal Gumnut (30 January 2010)

They say Ireland, Spain and Portugal are one step away from the same fate as Greece.

They have all been living off debt and funny money for far too long and deserve to fall back into genteel poverty for a generation or two.

And I agree, sell any Euro's you've got, and short the euro against any currency, except the UKP.

gg


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## Sean K (30 January 2010)

Garpal Gumnut said:


> They say Ireland, Spain and Portugal are one step away from the same fate as Greece.
> 
> They have all been living off debt and funny money for far too long and deserve to fall back into genteel poverty for a generation or two.
> 
> ...



I heard Faber calling them the PIGS a couple of days ago...


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## skc (30 January 2010)

kennas said:


> I heard Faber calling them the PIGS a couple of days ago...




Yes that was a classic...

The development is very straight forward - pass the debt bomb to the bigger guy and hope they don't blow up. The debt bubble started at the retail level, moved up to the banks and then now into governments. The most leveraged and in debt governments will go bust first (congrats to Dubai who won first place), and the biggest and badest last.

I will need some EUROs in April so I hope it falls into the abyss...


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## Aussiejeff (30 January 2010)

skc said:


> Yes that was a classic...
> 
> The development is very straight forward - pass the debt bomb to the bigger guy and hope they don't blow up. The debt bubble started at the retail level, moved up to the banks and then now into governments. The most leveraged and in debt governments will go bust first (congrats to Dubai who won first place), and the biggest and badest last.
> 
> I will need some EUROs in April so I hope it falls into the abyss...




The first Global Financial Crisis in the late 20's-30's stumbled along in years of struggling stagnation until *BANG* - WW2 got manufacturing/production/growth around the world BOOMING again, to the point where we are now.

Perhaps another World War will be needed to revive our stagnating economies out of the inevitable ashes that such conflicts create? I seem to remember at least two of the countries most devastated by WW2 went on to became two of the world's richest and most powerful economies... Japan & the old West Germany (up until a decade or so ago).


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## Atlas79 (30 January 2010)

Aussiejeff said:


> Perhaps another World War will be needed to revive our stagnating economies out of the inevitable ashes that such conflicts create? I seem to remember at least two of the countries most devastated by WW2 went on to became two of the world's richest and most powerful economies... Japan & the old West Germany (up until a decade or so ago).




But if WOMD were in play from the very start of a world war? Not business as usual, methinks...

And how well the losers are treated may well depend upon who wins... it may not be the same side, this time...


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## boofhead (30 January 2010)

If the EU didn't have farm subsidies then the poorer members have a way to compete and generate some extra employment and revenues. A better use would be pay farmers to leave the land with conditions on the sale of the property - it can't gain subsidies or further payouts for the next 50 years.

It becomes EU stimulus and ends a cost.

It will be interesting to see how the politics of the EU playout in the next few years.

As for a war to get things going. It took England a long time to pay for that. Japan and Germany was rebuilt with money from the victors. USA and England do not look they can really afford to throw much money at such things.


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## Atlas79 (30 January 2010)

boofhead said:


> As for a war to get things going. It took England a long time to pay for that. Japan and Germany was rebuilt with money from the victors. USA and England do not look they can really afford to throw much money at such things.




The US will not be able to pay for its own war effort. Their manufacturing is in their enemy's territory, same with science. No money for raw materials. You need lots of all that to fight a war. A populace to dip into which is not exactly as educated, principled and united as it was in the 30's/40's (and that is putting it so lightly it's almost funny.) That country has never been more divided than it is now aside from the civil war. A certain prez has alienated his country from any allies who might help (the list of snubbings is quite long, & includes Britain.) A cynic might suggest they have been set up for this perfectly, with an incompetent at the helm to camoflage that it is done by deliberate and malicious planning. But who knows, maybe the bad actors will have a change of heart and play nice. I would like for someone to post a bright side to look on because it does not look great from here.


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## beaul (30 January 2010)

A friend of mine has just returned from Ireland. He confirmed that "financially" they are in deep sh*t.


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## cutz (30 January 2010)

beaul said:


> A friend of mine has just returned from Ireland. He confirmed that "financially" they are in deep sh*t.




Another victim of rampent property speculation/excessive gearing, the parallels between that country and oz are a little creepy.


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## inenigma (30 January 2010)

skc said:


> The most leveraged and in debt governments will go bust first (congrats to Dubai who won first place), and the biggest and badest last..




I thought Iceland had that honour ????


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## inenigma (30 January 2010)

Aussiejeff said:


> Perhaps another World War will be needed to revive our stagnating economies out of the inevitable ashes that such conflicts create?




Not only that, but, the reduction of population is also required as we (as a species) are currently consuming more than our planet can comfortably provide.  Less people, less demand for resources (I hope).  But, on the other hand, what damage would another WW do to our planets ecology ???  If there is another WW, you've got to acknowledge that if any country that has a nuclear capability will use it if they are getting beaten (ie.  Russia & China start thrashing USA...  You think USA is going to sit back and refuse to use their nuclear weapons ????)


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## Atlas79 (30 January 2010)

inenigma said:


> Not only that, but, the reduction of population is also required as we (as a species) are currently consuming more than our planet can comfortably provide.  Less people, less demand for resources (I hope).  But, on the other hand, what damage would another WW do to our planets ecology ???  If there is another WW, you've got to acknowledge that if any country that has a nuclear capability will use it if they are getting beaten (ie.  Russia & China start thrashing USA...  You think USA is going to sit back and refuse to use their nuclear weapons ????)




With space tourism taking off and making space travel cheaper, we will be able to jet our waste into the sun. Within 100 years we will be mining garbage dumps for raw materials. There is plenty of room on earth. Give each family in the world a 1/4 acre block to live on and we would all fit within the state of Texas. In those places where resources are not comfortably provided you can thank poor management, despotism and the choice of destructive state types. All matters solvable short of a devestating nuclear holocaust the outcomes of which are guaranteed for no one involved.


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## drsmith (30 January 2010)

Aussiejeff said:


> The first Global Financial Crisis in the late 20's-30's stumbled along in years of struggling stagnation until *BANG* - WW2 got manufacturing/production/growth around the world BOOMING again, to the point where we are now.
> 
> Perhaps another World War will be needed to revive our stagnating economies out of the inevitable ashes that such conflicts create? I seem to remember at least two of the countries most devastated by WW2 went on to became two of the world's richest and most powerful economies... Japan & the old West Germany (up until a decade or so ago).



During WW2 the US was able to expand it's industrial capacity and technologies largely unimpeded by the war itself. If there were another global conflict today that would not be possible for any country.

Post WW2 Japan and West Germany were rebuilt by the victors in their image.


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## Tukker (30 January 2010)

Atlas79 said:


> .... *There is plenty of room on earth. Give each family in the world a 1/4 acre block to live on and we would all fit within the state of Texas.*....




Well Said Atlas

Land Surface Area Earth = 148,940,000km ² (36,803,875,516 acre)
Jan 2010 Population = 6,800,000,000

Area of Texas = 172,044,897acre
Jan 2010 Population = 6,800,000,000

*Land for everyone in the world residing in Texas 0.025acre  (102m ²) *

So we can all live happily in our container in Texas after all.

All we gotta do then is remotely power and feed everyone.


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## Aussiejeff (31 January 2010)

Second GFC Begins: Greece?

*Third WW Begins: Taiwan??*



> But this time the sanctions were more biting, and analysts said they reflected China's increased clout at a time when its economy looks set to overhaul Japan's and its military budget is surging year by year.
> 
> *Chinese defence ministry spokesman Huang Xueping said the reprisals reflected the "severe harm" posed by the deal with Taiwan, which Beijing says is a part of its territory that must return to the mainland fold.*
> 
> ...



http://www.heraldsun.com.au/news/br...hina-suspensions/story-e6frf7k6-1225825096171


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## Sean K (31 January 2010)

Aussiejeff said:


> Second GFC Begins: Greece?
> 
> *Third WW Begins: Taiwan??*



Wars have been started on less. And we would have to follow as per ANZUS alliance. We have to commit a Brigade plus. 

But, I don't think the US and China are at a point to start a war. China can't win. Once they have a few more aircraft and a blue water navy, yes. 10 years.


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## Atlas79 (31 January 2010)

Aussiejeff said:


> Second GFC Begins: Greece?
> 
> *Third WW Begins: Taiwan??*
> 
> http://www.heraldsun.com.au/news/br...hina-suspensions/story-e6frf7k6-1225825096171




It's getting hot. This is just one of the hot spots. Lots of contenders... South America, Iran/Israel, Georgia-Ukraine/Russia, (Russia/China?), N Korea/S Korea...


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## Sean K (31 January 2010)

Atlas79 said:


> It's getting hot. This is just one of the hot spots. Lots of contenders... South America, Iran/Israel, Georgia-Ukraine/Russia, (Russia/China?), N Korea/S Korea...



Aliances have to be formed first for a real war.

Need to have an 'us' v 'them' type of thing. 

At the moment, only a small isolated war could start and be sustained. 

No great alliances yet.


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## Atlas79 (31 January 2010)

kennas said:


> Aliances have to be formed first for a real war.
> 
> Need to have an 'us' v 'them' type of thing.
> 
> ...




On one hand I hope you are right...

On the other, I'm not sure we little people would necessarily be informed of what has or has not been agreed upon behind the closed doors of our mighty rulers.


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## Sean K (31 January 2010)

Atlas79 said:


> On one hand I hope you are right...
> 
> On the other, I'm not sure we little people would necessarily be informed of what has or has not been agreed upon behind the closed doors of our mighty rulers.



Yep, You're rght. The agreements prior to WWI and II  were simple but caued such devestation. Could an ANZUS alliance do the same? I hope not..


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## boofhead (31 January 2010)

Tukker said:


> Well Said Atlas
> 
> Land Surface Area Earth = 148,940,000km ² (36,803,875,516 acre)
> Jan 2010 Population = 6,800,000,000
> ...




Your calculator is broken. 1/4 acre = 0.25 and not 0.025. If everyone had 1/4 acre then you need 6.8 billion/4 = 1.7 billion acres. There are 172 million acres in Texas. I hope you was using sarcasm.


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## prawn_86 (31 January 2010)

boofhead said:


> Your calculator is broken. 1/4 acre = 0.25 and not 0.025. If everyone had 1/4 acre then you need 6.8 billion/4 = 1.7 billion acres. There are 172 million acres in Texas. I hope you was using sarcasm.




.025 of an acre = 101m2, as acres is an imperial measure and m2 ir metric. There are 4046m2 in an acre


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## Garpal Gumnut (31 January 2010)

PIGS is a good moniker for the hand me a grant thugs in the EU.

Portugal
Italy
Greece
Spain.

I preferred them when they were happy peasants and couldn't speak English. Now they are unhappy wannabes with no economy and huge debt.

gg


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## Aussiejeff (1 February 2010)

Atlas79 said:


> On one hand I hope you are right...
> 
> On the other, I'm not sure we little people would necessarily be informed of *what has or has not been agreed upon behind the closed doors of our mighty rulers.*




Maybe they have agreed in principle that a **New Cold War**(tm) is the best and safest way to beat up some fear & homegrown support in BOTH socialist blocs (China & USA) to help pave the way for a massive hike in publicly funded defense & infrastructure spending? Instead of winding down the Arms Race, maybe "they" have decided a new arms race is just the ticket to boost their bubbles further?

Hooray!

I like races!!


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## Aussiejeff (1 February 2010)

Garpal Gumnut said:


> PIGS is a good moniker for the hand me a grant thugs in the EU.
> 
> Portugal
> Italy
> ...




gg, you forgot to add these

*Z*imbabwe (241)
*A*ustria (59)
*N*icaragua (54)
*Y*emen (32)
*G*hana (67)
*I*srael (78)
*T*unisia (53)
*S*ingapore (113)

to the list  (public debt as % of GDP according to the CIA in brackets)

[size=-3]BTW Australia is shown at 15% and *gasp* the US at 61%[/size].


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## UBIQUITOUS (1 February 2010)

Yawnnnn..this topic is getting very mundane.
I thought that we already had the 2nd GFC catalyst, 2 months ago i.e Dubai.


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## cutz (1 February 2010)

UBIQUITOUS said:


> Yawnnnn..this topic is getting very mundane.
> I thought that we already had the 2nd GFC catalyst, 2 months ago i.e Dubai.




That was just a false start, this is starting to look like the real deal.


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## wayneL (1 February 2010)

UBIQUITOUS said:


> Yawnnnn..this topic is getting very mundane.
> I thought that we already had the 2nd GFC catalyst, 2 months ago i.e Dubai.




This is how it catches people out however. Just when everybody thinks it won't, it does. 

It's wise to never discount any possibility.


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## Timmy (1 February 2010)

I'm stockpiling souvlaki.


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## wayneL (1 February 2010)

Timmy said:


> I'm stockpiling souvlaki.




Having a sweet tooth, I'll go for the baklava.


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## Timmy (1 February 2010)

I think that's a better idea ... the souvlaki is getting a bit whiffy.


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## UBIQUITOUS (1 February 2010)

wayneL said:


> This is how it catches people out however. Just when everybody thinks it won't, it does.
> 
> It's wise to never discount any possibility.





I agree, but it's also wise not to jump at every piece of news with a 'the sky is falling' viewpoint. 

GFC2 could take a long long long time to play out. Infact it could be so slow that we might never notice it while its happening. Then again.....


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## boofhead (1 February 2010)

prawn_86 said:


> .025 of an acre = 101m2, as acres is an imperial measure and m2 ir metric. There are 4046m2 in an acre




My appologies. I thought the post was trying to say we can all have our quarter acre and had the decimal in the wrong place. I'm not happy to live in 1/40 of an acre.


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## Aussiejeff (1 February 2010)

UBIQUITOUS said:


> I agree, but it's also wise not to jump at every piece of news with a 'the sky is falling' viewpoint.
> 
> GFC2 could take a long long long time to play out. Infact it could be so slow that we might never notice it while its happening. Then again.....




Yeah, good point ubi.

REAL world economics moves like a 5 Megaton snail compared to the "immediacy" of stock & financial markets which can implode or boom within 24hrs. 

After the initial "punchy" financial market shockwave, the world seems to be having some "slow wave" aftershocks. Urgh. I'm getting a bit nauseous from all this s...l....o....w.... heaving....  

Sluurrrp.

Sorry.


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## phantomcamel (10 March 2010)

drsmith said:


> During WW2 the US was able to expand it's industrial capacity and technologies largely unimpeded by the war itself. If there were another global conflict today that would not be possible for any country.
> 
> Post WW2 Japan and West Germany were rebuilt by the victors in their image.



The victors took most of Germany's old equipment after the war, then realized that they need Germany as an ally against communism... splendid!


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## LifeChoices (22 September 2011)

UBIQUITOUS said:


> I agree, but it's also wise not to jump at every piece of news with a 'the sky is falling' viewpoint.
> 
> GFC2 could take a long long long time to play out. Infact it could be so slow that we might never notice it while its happening. Then again.....




Just wanted to give a round of applause at getting this so right over 18 months ago.


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## FreshTrader (29 September 2011)

Does anyone know what time, locally, the decision on the bailout package will be announced?  Currently have holdings in the market so very much hoping for good news.  Cheers.


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## RandR (29 September 2011)

FreshTrader said:


> Does anyone know what time, locally, the decision on the bailout package will be announced?  Currently have holdings in the market so very much hoping for good news.  Cheers.




I believe zee germans have voted and passed the EFSF thingy. (heard this an hour ago on the tele)


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## LifeChoices (29 September 2011)

RandR said:


> I believe zee germans have voted and passed the EFSF thingy. (heard this an hour ago on the tele)




I'm not sure why, but this song just popped into my head:


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## FreshTrader (30 September 2011)

RandR said:


> I believe zee germans have voted and passed the EFSF thingy. (heard this an hour ago on the tele)




Thanks mate, appreciate the update 

I seriously thought Australia's market reaction to this would be much better, but then again it is a Friday...


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## McLovin (30 September 2011)

FreshTrader said:


> Thanks mate, appreciate the update
> 
> I seriously thought Australia's market reaction to this would be much better, but then again it is a Friday...




Why? Nothing has really changed. The Germans are looking out for their own banks, just like they were yesterday and the day before and the week before. If they weren't Greece would have long ago defaulted. This is just rearranging the deck chairs on the Titanic and making it slightly more orderly. Bottom line is someone still needs to pay the interest.


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## Julia (30 September 2011)

FreshTrader said:


> I seriously thought Australia's market reaction to this would be much better, but then again it is a Friday...






McLovin said:


> Why? Nothing has really changed. The Germans are looking out for their own banks, just like they were yesterday and the day before and the week before. If they weren't Greece would have long ago defaulted. This is just rearranging the deck chairs on the Titanic and making it slightly more orderly. Bottom line is someone still needs to pay the interest.



+1.   Exactly.


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## Plumber1 (30 September 2011)

McLovin said:


> Why? Nothing has really changed. The Germans are looking out for their own banks, just like they were yesterday and the day before and the week before. If they weren't Greece would have long ago defaulted. This is just rearranging the deck chairs on the Titanic and making it slightly more orderly. Bottom line is someone still needs to pay the interest.




This is really disturbing.

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=rxMOW94V6xQ&feature=related


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## Aussiejeff (30 September 2011)

McLovin said:


> Why? Nothing has really changed. The Germans are looking out for their own banks, just like they were yesterday and the day before and the week before. If they weren't Greece would have long ago defaulted. *This is just rearranging the deck chairs on the Titanic and making it slightly more orderly*. Bottom line is someone still needs to pay the interest.




Nice analogy. In the end, does it matter if the sinking is "orderly" or "disorderly"? Either way, they're sunk!


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## FreshTrader (30 September 2011)

Thank you to all, the recent posts have really opened my eyes in relation to this issue.  I guess I'm just a little too optimistic..


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## LifeChoices (30 September 2011)

FreshTrader said:


> Thank you to all, the recent posts have really opened my eyes in relation to this issue.  I guess I'm just a little too optimistic..




I'm not sure why, but this song just popped into my head:


RIP Rolland S Howard


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## FreshTrader (1 October 2011)

LifeChoices said:


> I'm not sure why, but this song just popped into my head:
> 
> Is that in response to my post?...   This guy starts by singing about contemplating suicide...


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## kavla1970 (4 October 2011)

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=yQpSq8dkzfg&feature=related


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## DB008 (13 November 2012)

Special Report: Greece's far-right party goes on the offensive




> (Reuters) - Arm raised in a Nazi-style salute, the leader of Greece's fastest-rising political party surveyed hundreds of young men in black T-shirts as they exploded into cheers. Their battle cry reverberated through the night: Blood! Honour! Golden Dawn!
> 
> "We may sometimes raise our hand this way, but these hands are clean, not dirty. They haven't stolen," shouted Nikolaos Mihaloliakos as he stood, floodlit, in front of about 2,000 diehard party followers filling an open-air amphitheatre at Goudi park, a former military camp near Athens.




http://www.reuters.com/article/2012/11/12/us-greece-crisis-dawn-idUSBRE8AB09F20121112


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## ROE (13 November 2012)

The Greek is pretty in default mode

They are in default so many times in history don't know why such a big fuss

They probably spend more time in default than not


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## Tyler Durden (13 November 2012)

ROE said:


> The Greek is pretty in default mode
> 
> They are in default so many times in history don't know why such a big fuss
> 
> They probably spend more time in default than not




They're gonna default (again) on Friday too.


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## Aussiejeff (14 November 2012)

Tyler Durden said:


> They're gonna default (again) on Friday too.




Meh.

With an endless line of promised credit (EU too big to fail, remember?) they are technically "infinitely solvent". At least as long as the hoipoloi of creditor nations go along with the scam.


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## ROE (14 November 2012)

Greek will default sooner or later, they got nothing but big public spending purse

Like I said some months ago...

Greek and Spain can go they will save Italy as Italy is a threat to German and France if
they out of euro ...Italy can sustain its own budget and consumption so its it doesn't care if
people lend them money or not and if its dollar is really cheap it has export advantages
against the German and France so they do their upmost to keep Italy on the same currency

Italy has bargaining power, so they can bargain their way out else they leave Euro and German and France
will pay the price...


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## DB008 (23 January 2013)

Getting worse in Greece...




> Immigrants Are Being Stabbed to Death on the Streets of Athens
> 
> http://www.vice.com/en_uk/read/immigrants-are-being-stabbed-to-death-on-the-streets-of-athens


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## cordelia (14 February 2013)

FreshTrader said:


> Does anyone know what time, locally, the decision on the bailout package will be announced?  Currently have holdings in the market so very much hoping for good news.  Cheers.




the truth about the bailout!!
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=yipV_pK6HXw


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