# Is this the best its ever been?



## brerwallabi (2 April 2006)

Wow, what a start to the year. 
How are we are all doing so far this year?
Its only three months into the year and I have surpassed last years (calender) accumulated nett trading profit (profit already taken) already. This is certainly the best ever year I have ever had on the market. I have thought long and deep on if I should change my strategy over the last few days seeing the success already enjoyed.I have decided to continue with my same level of capital and to continue with my trading plan as per its original form. I do not wish to discuss trading plans but would rather like to know the impact of success that obviously many of us would be enjoying on our psyche and if our trading plans are being modified as result of that success.


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## nizar (2 April 2006)

> PERTH stockbroker Terry Hogan can't remember when share market conditions were so appetising.
> 
> After a 45-year career that has seen market booms come and go, Mr Hogan reckons most investors have forgotten what a bear market is.
> 
> ...




http://www.theaustralian.news.com.au/common/story_page/0,5744,18671030%5E643,00.html


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## Prospector (2 April 2006)

brerwallabi said:
			
		

> Wow, what a start to the year.
> How are we are all doing so far this year?
> Its only three months into the year and I have surpassed last years (calender) accumulated nett trading profit (profit already taken) already. This is certainly the best ever year I have ever had on the market. I have thought long and deep on if I should change my strategy over the last few days seeing the success already enjoyed.I have decided to continue with my same level of capital and to continue with my trading plan as per its original form. I do not wish to discuss trading plans but would rather like to know the impact of success that obviously many of us would be enjoying on our psyche and if our trading plans are being modified as result of that success.




I agree it is almost scary!  I am quite leveraged in Resource stocks (GOLD GOLD GOLD and a touch of uranium  ) - this is where the profit has been but it does get to the stage where your comfort level is quite stressed!  At this time the shares are not giving me 'sell' triggers, but at the same time the portfolio is not balanced, and is sitting on a lot of profit! I dont usually lock in the profit unless I get a trigger to sell.

 I got jittery about the high profit when trading in BTA, so I sold half and locked it in.  Just as well really because then it traded lower for a while so I topped up.  That was pure luck because  at the time of me selling it, there were no 'sell triggers', just me getting antsy about all this profit!

So yes, profit has changed my trading plan


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## It's Snake Pliskin (2 April 2006)

Extraordinary Popular Delusions and The Madness of Crowds is a must read.
Who sees similarities with the current market? :alien2: 

Gold and uranium, hmmm, I`d be getting antsy myself.


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## markrmau (2 April 2006)

I think a bubble IS developing, but it has another year to run.

In July 2004, Jan 2005, July 2005, everyone was sitting around saying 'gee the stock market has had a good run. I think it may crash now.' Jan-April 2006, people are saying 'gee the stock market has had a good run. I think it has further to go...'

This is the begining of the bubble. Don't sell now though, the mania has another year to run. Look at housing.


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## It's Snake Pliskin (2 April 2006)

Another good article from The Australian:
http://www.theaustralian.news.com.au/common/story_page/0,5744,18671036%5E643,00.html

From the article:


> The boom ended when it was shown to be a modest deposit and that most of the other exploration companies that had boomed after the Poseidon strike had little prospect of success.


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## Prospector (3 April 2006)

Of course this is true Pliskin - which is why you need to separate the producers from the 'wannabes'.  

Are you saying that BHP is not a good share to have????  I'm betting that those who bought it a few months ago at around the $14 mark have no such thoughts.  And at the moment, if you arent investing in the mining sector then your shares as a whole, with a few exceptions, probably arent moving very far!


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## RichKid (3 April 2006)

Snake Pliskin said:
			
		

> Another good article from The Australian:
> http://www.theaustralian.news.com.au/common/story_page/0,5744,18671036%5E643,00.html
> 
> From the article:




Great article Snake, excellent summary of the previous booms, I find The Australian business reporting is generally more detailed than the SMH. I've posted a link to another article on insurance and IAG in the IAG thread, same author as your article (Gottliebsen).


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## Rafa (3 April 2006)

can we please not talk about this incase we jinx it and it all comes crashing down...  

:bricks1: 

in the mean time... party on... :dance:


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## It's Snake Pliskin (3 April 2006)

Prospector,



> Of course this is true Pliskin - which is why you need to separate the producers from the 'wannabes'.




It depends on your timeframe for holding and how much you would like to make. Some wannabe companies are making many people very rich. 



> Are you saying that BHP is not a good share to have????




No I am not saying that. I don`t belive in good or bad shares.



> I'm betting that those who bought it a few months ago at around the $14 mark have no such thoughts.




I bet they don`t either. 



> And at the moment, if you arent investing in the mining sector then your shares as a whole, with a few exceptions, probably arent moving very far




I`ve traded the mining sector not invested. There inlies the difference.

You would be surprised what else one can make money on.


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## Prospector (3 April 2006)

Snake Pliskin said:
			
		

> I`ve traded the mining sector not invested. Therein lies the difference.




OK, we agree then!


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## It's Snake Pliskin (3 April 2006)

An article of interest:
http://www.aireview.com/index.php?act=view&catid=8&id=3798


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## brerwallabi (6 April 2006)

This is quite scary at the moment, three times over the last few years I have gone very light in my holdings only to see the market kick on. I have lightened myself this week of all but zinc and gold. I seem to have developed a nervousness even the sound of a leaf dropping to the ground makes me very jumpy.


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## It's Snake Pliskin (6 April 2006)

brerwallabi said:
			
		

> This is quite scary at the moment, three times over the last few years I have gone very light in my holdings only to see the market kick on. I have lightened myself this week of all but zinc and gold. I seem to have developed a nervousness even the sound of a leaf dropping to the ground makes me very jumpy.




Brer..,

It`s ok to feel like that. I think it is human nature to get nervous at what is unknown of the future. With mining there are booms and busts that is assured. With that in mind be prepared. 

Snake :alien2:


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## brerwallabi (6 April 2006)

Its not miners that worry me.


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## nizar (7 April 2006)

brerwallabi said:
			
		

> This is quite scary at the moment, three times over the last few years I have gone very light in my holdings only to see the market kick on. I have lightened myself this week of all but zinc and gold. I seem to have developed a nervousness even the sound of a leaf dropping to the ground makes me very jumpy.





Good stuff...

Me personally i think ZINC and URANIUM is the way to go..

Check out OMC, SAU, KZL, CBH

Gold I've heard alot about... maybe best exposure is PNA (unhedged)...


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## traderdude (7 April 2006)

brerwallabi said:
			
		

> Wow, what a start to the year.
> How are we are all doing so far this year?
> Its only three months into the year and I have surpassed last years (calender) accumulated nett trading profit (profit already taken) already. This is certainly the best ever year I have ever had on the market. I have thought long and deep on if I should change my strategy over the last few days seeing the success already enjoyed.I have decided to continue with my same level of capital and to continue with my trading plan as per its original form. I do not wish to discuss trading plans but would rather like to know the impact of success that obviously many of us would be enjoying on our psyche and if our trading plans are being modified as result of that success.




Congrats. Sounds like you have done very well. I just joined Aussie Stock Forum today. I'm left feeling like I've missed out after reading your post. I have been mostly in stocks like CSM and HDR which have gone nowhere in the last year. Cant say I wasnt in commodities or oil. Do you know any shares that you think have potential atm. Thinking of getting into this Uranium/ gold run. Thanks for any advice. Rob


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## brerwallabi (8 April 2006)

I got very twitchy around lunchtime just feel that 4900ish is coming. So i exited LHG,OXR,ALK,HIG,BMX,SBM and AUZ today. Its all about timing and MAXIMISING profit and your damn profit is not there unless you exchange. I have further lightened my load. already have a few buys in place. The secret next week is have the finger on the pulse the (sell buton)


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## wayneL (8 April 2006)

brerwallabi said:
			
		

> I got very twitchy around lunchtime just feel that 4900ish is coming. So i exited LHG,OXR,ALK,HIG,BMX,SBM and AUZ today. Its all about timing and MAXIMISING profit and your damn profit is not there unless you exchange. I have further lightened my load. already have a few buys in place. The secret next week is have the finger on the pulse the (sell buton)




It seems to be turning as a good move brer'. SPI is down 70 points @11:45 perth time. Methinks there will be a lot of red tommorrow.


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## markrmau (8 April 2006)

At least the US yield curve is no longer inverted.

http://www.bondtalk.com/global.cfm?S=charts&SS=treasury_yield_curve

PS. Tomorrow is Saturday - I'll open a bottle of red too Wayne.


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## wayneL (8 April 2006)

markrmau said:
			
		

> At least the US yield curve is no longer inverted.
> 
> http://www.bondtalk.com/global.cfm?S=charts&SS=treasury_yield_curve
> 
> PS. Tomorrow is Saturday - I'll open a bottle of red too Wayne.




 hehe

That when you know a market tragic....doesn't even know it's the weekend


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## brerwallabi (8 April 2006)

It was not a pleasant day for our American cousins. Down day on Monday coming.


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## Nick Radge (11 April 2006)

55 years of facts say it can get a lot better.










_This post may contain advice that has been prepared by Reef Capital 
Coaching ABN 24 092 309 978 ("RCC") and is general advice and does not take account of your objectives, financial situation or needs. Before acting on this general advice you should therefore consider the appropriateness of the advice having regard to your situation. We recommend you obtain financial, legal and taxation advice before making any financial investment decision.

Past performance is not a reliable indication of future performance. This 
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## tech/a (11 April 2006)

I think we will all lookback in 10 yrs time + and say--Either.

Wow if only I knew then what I know now!

OR

Wow what an amazing time and opportunity we have lived in!

Take whatever risk measures you feel appropriate but

*DONT MISS THIS ONCE IN A LIFETIME OPPORTUNITY.*


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## karmatik (12 April 2006)

tech/a said:
			
		

> I think we will all lookback in 10 yrs time + and say--Either.
> 
> Wow if only I knew then what I know now!
> 
> ...




Do you really think this is a one in a lifetime opportunity, why so? I know its been a good run, but some day its going to halt. Following a crash or correction, wouldnt there also be similar opportunities if you were into the right stocks?


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