# How to Trade or Invest Profitably - "Without The Bullsh*t" - Technical Analysis Step by Step Tutorial Plus Q&A Thread



## tech/a (23 March 2021)

*Can I ask that you please keep this sort of discussion separate to the Original thread *

The initial thread requires some for some a degree of learning and understanding
To that end* over time *I will present and discuss with those interested the Basic and
more advanced T/A required to trade this method and no doubt help you in those
you work on yourself. The initial topics will be 


*Reading bar charts*

(1) Individual Bars.
(2) Volume
(3) Gaps
(4) Volume Control Bars.
(5) Fixed Fractional Position sizing.
(6) Pattern identification ---That I look for *NOT EVERY* pattern known!
(7) Support and Resistance.
(8) Trade Management relative to MY *Discretionary *METHOD
(9) Outlier Moves.
(10) Constructing a Watchlist.
(11) Finding Prospects.

PLUS anything else related to understanding the Trading method
that people bring/ask about.

*If you have anything pressing now you'd like to bring up please begin!
Don't be afraid to post many maybe thinking the very same thing!*


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## PetEarwig (23 March 2021)

tech/a said:


> *Can I ask that you please keep this sort of discussion separate to the Original thread *
> 
> The initial thread requires some for some a degree of learning and understanding
> To that end* over time *I will present and discuss with those interested the Basic and
> ...



Hi Tech,
I for one really appreciate the effort you are/have put in to help educate others around your trading style. One question I have regarding charts is I often see yourself and others post charts that have notes and markings on them that I assume stay there as you continue to monitor the chart. I currently rely on taking paper notes and this becomes cumbersome or forgotten over time. This may seem quite basic, but I'm not sure how to go about setting up this kind of function, without creating a new chart each time and cutting and pasting. Any guidance in note taking/marking a stock with charts over a time period would be informative for me. Thanks, Craig


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## tech/a (23 March 2021)

Hi Craig

2 ways 
(1) Amibroker has a rudimentary notation group of functions. ( mainly use that but has limits)
(2) I Use PAINT (Download it) for better notation but you need to photograph then note up.


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## PetEarwig (23 March 2021)

tech/a said:


> Hi Craig
> 
> 2 ways
> (1) Amibroker has a rudimentary notation group of functions. ( mainly use that but has limits)
> (2) I Use PAINT (Download it) for better notation but you need to photograph then note up.



Thanks Tech, 
I'll look into these options. I take it though that you would have to keep separate snapshots along the journey rather than the notes staying imbedded on a chart that you continue to follow? Craig


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## tech/a (23 March 2021)

Amibroker or any charting Package will generally keep the notations when you re open.

If using paint its a one off .


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## PetEarwig (23 March 2021)

tech/a said:


> Amibroker or any charting Package will generally keep the notations when you re open.
> 
> If using paint its a one off .



Ok, that makes sense. Cheers


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## tech/a (27 March 2021)

*Lets get into it.*

When I look at a chart I want it to be *BLATANTLY* obvious that what I SEE is screaming *BUY
SELL* doesn't have to be screaming (But it often does) it has to indicate to me that things
are definitely changing.

My aim is to keep this* super* simple because good trading is.

When you look at enough charts you'll see *IT *instantly and it can be quite a few different things.

You NEED to know in what season of the chart this is happening.
(1) Accumulation
(2) Bullish up move
(3) Distribution
(4) Bearish down move.

You should be able to see this instantly.

Higher highs and higher lows Lead to a move up
Lower Highs and Lower Lows lead to a down move
(Generally)




*NEXT*

Single bar interpretation
by them selves and in Clusters.
Some excellent reading you should download and print out.



			http://www.tradeguider.com/mtm_251058.pdf


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## jbocker (27 March 2021)

I have trouble differentiating 1  Accumulation and 3. Is it something determined down the track and not so much as it is happening. I mean could 3 be another accumulation distribution?


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## tech/a (27 March 2021)

Accumulation typically occurs after a bear move down
Distribution typically occurs after up trends 

I’m pretty sure your issue is in areas of consolidation.
Is the consolidation distribution OR accumulation.

The short answer is consolidation areas are BOTH 
they are again typically SHORTER in duration With
clear direction coming out of it.
will cover at some point V/C bars are part of it.
but not all cons9lidations are under a V/C bars 
control.


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## tech/a (27 March 2021)

As a Chartist I have a number of searches which pop up charts that have price movements
that are highly unusual. These are the pre curses to moves. The first words to the story.
The opening lines.

Here is a group of Bars that would and some did have me load in a buy or (Sell) or place in
my watch list these are what we look for. Ill explain as we go with more time.
You can see they are obvious in their own context.


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## tech/a (27 March 2021)

A bit of FYI.
*Please check your charts aren't colored the same way!!


*


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## tech/a (28 March 2021)

*Now to the really important stuff.*

Below is a chart marked up with very special notes 
Take time to read and absorb it as the notes are important
to your understanding of how I read charts. This is *MY* 101

Every bar has a story sometimes its boring and other times
its compelling. Bear with me as we put this all together in
chart reading methodology (Mine anyway).

I have* offset* the *Green* dotted line Range extension which
includes any gap for Clarity.

Have a close look at each individual day discussed and see
how the price action has developed.

*Based on what you see what do you think is likely to happen next?
Why do you think that? If you were in the trade what would you do?*
*If you weren't what would you do? 

Answers later.


*


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## jbocker (28 March 2021)

I will take a stab at an answer. I will probably be wrong and will accept the lesson.
I would check for any news release to explain the uprising price. Also look at history of prices where has this stock been before. Would I be correct in saying the price seems volatile across this chart and that supply is not great? I would expect momentum would be rising probably sharply from a dip 
If I didnt have the above and just working off the chart
Place a small position buy slightly above the close. 4.9 or 5.0 and go for a ride trending up. I would not want my offer to be taken at discount if the price should drop at open. (I dont know how to do that). What I am saying I will buy if the continued rise is validated.
@tech/a  apologies if I am meant to keep this to myself and check against your answer.


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## tech/a (28 March 2021)

*Jbocker*

All good post up anytime , good to see different
views. The available analysis is by no means exhaustive
but sufficient to be able to *anticipate* any trading decisions.

My aim is to have people question what the chart is telling them
*Cross referencing analysis as its introduced. *Getting used to
forming opinions and getting used to the likely results right
not so right and wrong---*bar by bar* (While your trading or watching
a potential trade in a watch list.)

A little past history would help. So here.


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## over9k (28 March 2021)

I know this is the technicals thread but I'd be looking for an explanation for the movement(s). 

Looking at it long term we're in dead-cat-bounce territory. 

Without knowing any more, if I were already in the trade I'd be selling as soon as we got a negative open as that's our first evidence of some kind of pullback. I'd rather be one step too late than 2 or 3 or 15 steps too early.


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## willoneau (28 March 2021)

tech/a said:


> *Based on what you see what do you think is likely to happen next?
> Why do you think that? If you were in the trade what would you do?*
> *If you weren't what would you do?*




I would move my stop up to below the low of the bar that created to gap.
I would wait for a pullback on low volume to create the bar for the entry trigger and stop position.


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## tech/a (29 March 2021)

So before I put up the next bar I've marked up a chart with the 
important information it tells us leading into the next day of trading.

(1) Very wide gap up indicates that this WAS thinly traded sellers were in short supply
(2) Sellers returned on 2 occasions in droves eager to get out.
(3) At some point supply started to dry up and buyers who wanted a position
had to bid higher right up until the close.
(4) This is reflected in Volume where supply was at its peak on day 1 and diminished
on day 2

Not marked on the chart but very clear is that price has risen over 60%. Very rare for 
price to increase over 50% in a very short time so caution.

@over9k I like this strategy
@willoneau like this as well.

If your in the trade you'd be at B/E or better 
I would move to the high of BAR (1) the large gap bar. Im expecting to see a strong continuation 
OR
Some consolidation and if that appears I want to see the depth of it--the volume involved and the 
duration.

If I wasn't in it I'd be on watch lamenting my poor timing or lack of alertness!
Id want proof this is still full of momentum so a stop limit order 3 Ticks above the high so
if it powers off I dont miss it. That will stay there until price action dictates its no longer
valid or there is a better option. 




*Next Next bar *


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## over9k (29 March 2021)

What would make you confident of your trailing stop buy duck? I.e if it busts price X, what would make you think it's going to continue surging past it?

This is why I've never really liked stop-loss orders, for all the times they might save you from a plummet, they're more than offset by the times they make you realise the loss/sell in a dip. Same goes for buying on an upswing but the other way around.


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## willoneau (29 March 2021)

With the stop limit entry above the high were would the stop loss exit and risk position be?
below the low of bar two or below the close of bar one?


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## tech/a (29 March 2021)

over9k said:


> What would make you confident of your trailing stop buy duck? I.e if it busts price X, what would make you think it's going to continue surging past it?
> 
> This is why I've never really liked stop-loss orders, for all the times they might save you from a plummet, they're more than offset by the times they make you realise the loss/sell in a dip. Same goes for buying on an upswing but the other way around.




Will answer with more time.


willoneau said:


> With the stop limit entry above the high were would the stop loss exit and risk position be?
> below the low of bar two or below the close of bar one?




Depends on the next bar currently Im waiting if in the trade so 
I may not have to use it.


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## willoneau (29 March 2021)

tech/a said:


> Id want proof this is still full of momentum so a stop limit order 3 Ticks above the high so
> if it powers off I dont miss it.



How do you determine stop limit entry size?
or are you looking at scaling in?
or do you use fix capital amount for stop limit?


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## tech/a (29 March 2021)

willoneau said:


> How do you determine stop limit entry size?
> or are you looking at scaling in?
> or do you use fix capital amount for stop limit?




In this case and all others like it. If price is coming to test a level on the up side
Its not un common to* go b*eyond the previous high 1 or 2 ticks before coming off again.
I used to get caught a lot when placing orders 1 tick and even 2 ticks above the high.
3 ticks not so often. (Reversing badly on me) Not an exact science but one of past experience.
I'll elaborate further as more of the charts are revealed.



over9k said:


> What would make you confident of your trailing stop buy duck? I.e if it busts price X, what would make you think it's going to continue surging past it?
> 
> This is why I've never really liked stop-loss orders, for all the times they might save you from a plummet, they're more than offset by the times they make you realise the loss/sell in a dip. Same goes for buying on an upswing but the other way around.




Confidence would depend on when the Stop order was taken out.
Pretty confident if its from a tight consolidation after I exited.
Next day with no consolidation is a difficult one as I'd be looking at 15 min charts
to determine continuance or sharp reversal. (This is where they occur very next day.)

More to come on the chart.

I will run stop loss orders up behind a really fast mover using a 15 min chart
If its up 100% its going to come off sooner than later--I wont most of the move.

Your right* IF* you* DONT* continue to monitor the Chart after you exit--perhaps
prematurely.

*I've saved more from early exit on the sell of a trade than I have on the entry.
Sure I've missed some profit but in variably Id have had to watch constantly and trade 
5 min charts.*

Its just my experience --- yours maybe different.


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## over9k (29 March 2021)

Oh weak hands are green hands no question. 

But everyone's been stung trying to catch something on the upside only to basically just buy at the peak & watch your money disappear before your very eyes.


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## tech/a (29 March 2021)

over9k said:


> Oh weak hands are green hands no question.
> 
> But everyone's been stung trying to catch something on the upside only to basically just buy at the peak & watch your money disappear before your very eyes.




If your "watching" your money disappear in front of your own eyes then your not admitting that your wrong.
As a good friend of mine often says.

"Its not about being wrong its about HOW LONG you stay WRONG."

Needless to say I'm wrong lots and lots.
I dont stay wrong long but I stay right a lot longer.


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## tech/a (29 March 2021)

To the next 2 Bars 
Both on lower volume
Both high up and above the V/C zone 
where Id expect the zone to act as a support zone 
I dont want to see price well into that zone.
Above the low of the bar marked (3) is fine But Id be selling if
price falls into the zone. I dont like giving away profit---its mine!


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## tech/a (3 April 2021)

*Sorry about the length of this post But I've bought this trade up to TODAY

So from here its live.*


So the next two bars are in greatly diminishing volume and are closing high
toward the top of the bar who's high is being tested. You'll also note that there 
is no price action down into the V/C zone which indicates that those who bought
aggressively are holding their stock. All in all Id be looking to add to my position if 
trading reached .051c Stop logically would be .041c but Id be looking to get out earlier 
if traded at .045c.










The Next bar is again on very low volume and just hits the V/C Zone.
My patience is running thin Id be raising my stop to .045c




Well the analysis proved to be correct and we are now looking to see how strong
this move is. As Always Im pretty fickle with quick rises *Supply will like higher prices


*


So the next few bars are testing the high and failing. Again low volume 
BUT with the entire move almost 100% Unless I see another V/C bar
and Zone created Im of the opinion this is going to consolidate and take a pause.




So the creeping up of the stop pays off. I had a little slippage but not a lot of damage 
*I re set my but at .061 and with a max of 21 trading days as my wait period OR a CLEAR
reversal of trend its sits there. I check all those in this position each day to evaluate.


*

And It consolidates to a "T" 

*Entirely ABOVE* the Current V/C bar and Zone.
Not testing of the high until *NOW

THEN


*

So Im now in a new Continuation trade  with my stop at B/E

*Forward a few more days and this is where Im NOW at the trade is still*
*live all be it on the watch list once again t .088c*


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## tech/a (15 April 2021)

A bit out of context but relevant to charting
From the 88E thread.


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## over9k (16 April 2021)

So in other words, technical analysis doesn't work in an atypical condition like anticipation of mental drilling results?


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## tech/a (16 April 2021)

Works well in anticipation —-even showed pretty clearly 
How the participants would react.

What it and any other analysis can’t do is anticipate the
size of a move. I think it was pretty accurate as far as sentiment 
is concerned.


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## tech/a (18 April 2021)

So Not a lot of discussion.
I presume those watching on understand the principals I have shown.

*NEXT 

Reading Volume*
How can I tell if its Supply or Demand ? (withdrawal of supply).

Volume *always* tells us something about the participants on the day or in the last week or last 5 mins
given a chart to read with volume. It should be read in conjunction with a *BARS RANGE *and in conjunction with the last 5 bars of VOLUME and 1-20 bars of *PRICE ACTION*. In other words ----

*CONTEXT.*

The best way to explain is with a chart and notes. It takes some experience but is well worth the effort.




So from what we know how would you expect price to move Monday?
What would you be looking for if you were holding this and deciding to stay in or get out?
If you wanted to buy this what would be a strategy?

*NEXT More (Different) Examples.*


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## qldfrog (19 April 2021)

tech/a said:


> So Not a lot of discussion.
> I presume those watching on understand the principals I have shown.
> 
> *NEXT
> ...



Just to add activity: reading that chart i would not be positive for the open but i am very bad at this game, a consolidation before further climb could be on the card: if i was following that stock, i would probably put a conditional buy should it rises today...
So that's probably not the right answer:-(
Disclaimer: not been able to work on your teaching properly yet, need full screen👍


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## tech/a (19 April 2021)

QF 

Youve made a good point.
You don’t think your answer will be correcut.

There is no “Correct Answer”
You can anticipate a number of outcomes 
time will determine “ Correctness” 

The aim is to improve *TRADE* *MANAGEMENT*.


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## tech/a (19 April 2021)

tech/a said:


> QF
> 
> Youve made a good point.
> You don’t think your answer will be correcut.
> ...




The stock is GNC and I selected it at random (You should be able to see a story in ANY chart.)

Here is my take and not far from QF's





Cant leave this without making the following comment.

*My main concerns are *
(1) The high has been tested and failed (Id be out here)
Particularly given the volume
(2) The length of this consolidation
Most continuations come from shorter consolidations
Longer consolidations tend to be distributions at TOPS.
(3) It had a go at continuing from a tighter consolidation
which you can clearly see.
There is a good chance that any trading above the High "Could"
end up being a bull trap.


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## PetEarwig (21 April 2021)

Hi Tech/a,
I like your explanations of trade management regarding protecting profits. When identifying a volume control area, how significantly over the moving average of the volume does your bar need to be to signify a new control area? I also note on this GNC chart that it was a down day, so the volume is more important than a positive or negative move? I think i'd be tempted to take profits here and wait for a possible rebuy on a pullback if it settled around $4.50. Craig


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## tech/a (22 April 2021)

P/E

Sorry I was a bit slow---pretty busy ----- as normal.

I will in time do quite a bit on V/C bars and zones.
How to draw them and how to use the information
in them and most importantly trading in them and out
of them.

Little bit more than a one liner.

BUT in quick response. Volume needs to be Greatly different than the average volume 
In some that maybe 2x in others 10x an average. I dont use one but if I did Id calculate it between 
V/C bars (Which will skew any average). say 20 trading days.


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## PetEarwig (22 April 2021)

Ok Thanks, I'll look forward to when you get to that part of the journey.
Craig


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## Bob111 (4 May 2021)

Hey Tech,

Not sure if you are up to this stage yet but I'd love to know more on when you take profits. Patterns you look for etc.


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## tech/a (4 May 2021)

Morning Bob

Having a bit of a hiatus at the moment.
Life outside of trading is frantic. So Not devoting
the necessary time. Prefer not to do half measures.
Will get back to it. Moving to a 4
day week in 3 weeks and 3 day by end of year.
-------Well that's the plan.


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## bsnews (4 May 2021)

tech/a said:


> Morning Bob
> 
> Having a bit of a hiatus at the moment.
> Life outside of trading is frantic. So Not devoting
> ...



That's funny I have put the same plan into action.
I even got to a 3 day week for 1 week from the 4.
Now I am back to a 6 day week how did it happen no idea really


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## barney (4 May 2021)

bsnews said:


> Now I am back to a 6 day week




LOL


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## Bob111 (24 June 2021)

Hey @tech/a ,

If you get a chance I was wondering if you can give a bit of a run down on the chart below? I see this happen quite a bit where there is nice range and then a volume spike with corresponding price jump occurs but the the range shrinks dramatically and goes sideways. I've seen this go on for a couple of months on some charts. Do you just give up watching it after a certain amount of time or is this to keep watching?


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## tech/a (24 June 2021)

Bob what's the chart?---Code--Dates

Often a take over.


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## Bob111 (24 June 2021)

tech/a said:


> Bob what's the chart?---Code--Dates
> 
> Often a take over.



Sorry not Aus stock. This one is PFPT on Nasdaq. Current date.


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## Bob111 (24 June 2021)

Bob111 said:


> Sorry not Aus stock. This one is PFPT on Nasdaq. Current date.



Posted this and then went and looked for takeover news and sure enough Tech is on the money. Same with every other one I have seen trade like this.


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