# Sell in May and Go Away?



## YOUNG_TRADER (22 April 2007)

Well its coming up to that time of year again and with now just a little over 1 week to go I thought I'd ask the $64Billion dollar question, will the onset of May see the old adage of selling?

My answer No, if anything a correction will come in late May, ie the last few days,

Why?

Well because on Thursday the World had its excuse to correct, China fell nearly 5% on that day taking Hong Kong down about 2.5% and Japan about 1.5%+ 

I thought yep here we go correction time, base metals were sold off and everything looked set to begin, but the FTSE as usuall was waiting  for the DJIA for direction,

Long story short the US Mkts hardly blinked and as a result niether did the FTSE, on Friday the Aussie Mkts were hardly affected and base metals strengthened, China too regained almost 4% on Friday and finally to finish off the week, the DJIA rallied too a new record high.

So ask yourself this, what exactly will the catalyst be to trigger a Sell in May situation?

Mkts rarely perform to expectations, so with everyone expecting a sell off in may, my bet is it won't come, instead as punters breathe a sigh of relief that the sell in May didn't come and begin to pile back into the mkt late May/Early June Whamoo we'll get a correction, the US will be the trigger

Thoughts?


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## breakeven (22 April 2007)

YT, re US being the trigger.  The analysts in the US have been saying that the year prior to a presidential election is rarely bad in stock market terms.  So they expect this year to be fine.  The profit results out of the US have suprised on the up side.


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## nizar (22 April 2007)

YOUNG_TRADER said:


> Well its coming up to that time of year again and with now just a little over 1 week to go I thought I'd ask the $64Billion dollar question, will the onset of May see the old adage of selling?
> 
> My answer No, if anything a correction will come in late May, ie the last few days,
> 
> ...




Brother I kid you not I was gonna write exactly the same thing and found myself nodding at every word you said!!

Too many people expect a correction now, I'm gonna wait until every1s bullish again and has 7000pts targets, then I start selling.

And its no point selling now just in case as several have done -- because, in my opinion -- the most vertical climbs come immediately before any crash/correction.


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## constable (22 April 2007)

i love lamp


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## YOUNG_TRADER (22 April 2007)

constable said:


> i love lamp




You too?


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## bean (22 April 2007)

The DOW approaching 13,000.  The DOW may correct once its reach or it may be continuing in a blow of fashion out of the last 16 days it has been up 15 It had 8 up one down now 7 up.

Nasdaq is at 2525 round about 2550 was when it went into bubble territory on its way to 5000.
So the Nasdaq is fast approahcing its its previous bubblemania


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## ta2693 (22 April 2007)

I think the crash could happen any time any where. It is so random. It may just because of butterfly effect. I do not know why May is so different.


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## nizar (22 April 2007)

Statistically September is a much more worse month than MAy.


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## ta2693 (22 April 2007)

Lets take US market for example

9/17/2001   -4.92%   First day of trading after 911
9/3/2002    -4.15%    Market declined in Europe and Japan, weak Us and Eu manufacturing numbers, problem among japan bank
7/9/2002  -3.83%    Continue concern about account profit
3/24/2003  -3.52%   Fear the iraq war could be longer
8/5/2002  -3.43%  Weaker than expected US employment report
7/10/2002  -3.40%  Waning confident in market and company integrity
7/22/2002  -3.29% Bush affirm support of treasury secretary 
9/27/2002 -3.23% Lack of consumer confidence, negative earning news
9/20/2001 -3.11% Political and economic uncertainty
9/19/2002 -3.01% Bad corporate news
8/1/2002 -2.99%  Report shows slowed manufacturing growth
......
so random.


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## Kimosabi (22 April 2007)

I think what people need to take into consideration is that quite a bit of money is coming into the Aussie market from Overseas, also from Super, debt is cheap and easy to get, and that Reserve Banks around the world are printing more and more money at the moment, so why should it go down yet?

I think it's about time for irrational exuberance to kick in, because as we all know, it's different this time...


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## pods (23 April 2007)

If the market generally has a downturn in those months, why not just short?


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## nizar (23 April 2007)

ta2693 said:


> Lets take US market for example
> 
> 9/17/2001   -4.92%   First day of trading after 911
> 9/3/2002    -4.15%    Market declined in Europe and Japan, weak Us and Eu manufacturing numbers, problem among japan bank
> ...




5 out of 11 being September.

Also, how does PPT (plunge protection team) work. Do they only start buying after 5% down or what??
I wouldve thought 4.5% is pretty significant.


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## chops_a_must (23 April 2007)

How can you have a May sell off in April or June?  

I vote, logical fallacy.


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## Dukey (23 April 2007)

nizar said:


> Brother I kid you not I was gonna write exactly the same thing and found myself nodding at every word you said!!
> 
> Too many people expect a correction now, I'm gonna wait until every1s bullish again and has 7000pts targets, then I start selling.
> 
> And its no point selling now just in case as several have done -- because, in my opinion -- the most vertical climbs come immediately before any crash/correction.




And the most vertical falls come right after!!..... how do you pick it?? or do you just ride it out.

I voted "Late May correction" - With my well known charting expertise (cough :bonk: cough) I reckon we'll top around 6300 and then down she comes ... maybe just a few hundred points - lets say 357 points to be exact.  
(from my patent pending random number generator).


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## YOUNG_TRADER (23 April 2007)

chops_a_must said:


> How can you have a May sell off in April or June?
> 
> I vote, logical fallacy.





Does that mean you love lamp?


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## ROE (23 April 2007)

Sell in May and Go Away
Nifty fifty
Dog of the Dow/ASX

Anything else   ?


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## Out Too Soon (23 April 2007)

The "Sell in May" is self perpetuating. Everyone expects it will probably happen, therefore it will, whether there's a more concrete reason for it or not. You know it's true & so do I, that's why I have such a comparitavely small holding at present & looking to exit that so I'm ready for the bargains in the Great May Sale!!!! 

PS: Do you like my logic or what???


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## nizar (23 April 2007)

Out Too Soon said:


> The "Sell in May" is self perpetuating. Everyone expects it will probably happen, therefore it will, whether there's a more concrete reason for it or not. You know it's true & so do I, that's why I have such a comparitavely small holding at present & looking to exit that so I'm ready for the bargains in the Great May Sale!!!!
> 
> PS: Do you like my logic or what???




Yeh thats what i thought about last October.
Then we had this massive rally.
Lucky i reacted to what happened rather than try 2 predict the market.


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## jammin (23 April 2007)

nizar said:


> Lucky i reacted to what happened rather than try 2 predict the market.



Wise words Nizar. Whilst the May and October downturns are there to see on the charts, the severity and date of commencement vary dramatically. So be watchful and react to what you see. 
I wonder how much impact stocks going ex-dividend around these months have on the charts.


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## bean (23 April 2007)

Well I have been posting for the sell in May go away but I just realised I might be buying Gold as the markets falling


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## Ken (23 April 2007)

If everyone had tomorrows paper we wouldn't have these discussions.

Can big financial groups plan sell downs though?

To spook everyone into selling, just like what happened a few months back..

I am sure it happens.


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## YOUNG_TRADER (25 April 2007)

Well it would appear that 60% of us ASF'ers thnk that correction will happen between now and the end of May, interestingly almost 10% love lamp


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## CanOz (25 April 2007)

YOUNG_TRADER said:


> Well it would appear that 60% of us ASF'ers thnk that correction will happen between now and the end of May, interestingly almost 10% love lamp




What is Lamp?


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## YOUNG_TRADER (25 April 2007)

CanOz said:


> What is Lamp?




That question can only be answered by viewing "Anchorman: The Legend of Ron Burgundy"


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## Out Too Soon (25 April 2007)

Haha! AusCanuckie! someone had to ask!:  I just did a google that led me to Wikipedia & thanks to you YT I am now dumber than than I was 10 minutes ago!


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## YOUNG_TRADER (3 May 2007)

Well its May and theres no correction .............. YET :couch 

One factor I certainly overlooked was that we had a pretty nasty pullback in Feb/March granted it was short lived, it was nasty nonetheless

Can we have another pullback given we're only 2months away from the last?


Thoughts thoughts thoughts people?


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## greggy (3 May 2007)

YOUNG_TRADER said:


> Well its May and theres no correction .............. YET :couch
> 
> One factor I certainly overlooked was that we had a pretty nasty pullback in Feb/March granted it was short lived, it was nasty nonetheless
> 
> ...



Hi YT,

Seeing we had a short and nasty correction only a couple of months ago, I feel that we will not have one in May.  Infact, I still think that the market is heading for 7,000 points sometime this year.  However, there may be a correction in Oct 07. Well, this is my gut feeling anyway.
DYOR


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## Rafa (3 May 2007)

i sold a few stocks in preparedness...
and they have all shot thru the roof!!!! 

BSG, TZN, etc...


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## greggy (3 May 2007)

Rafa said:


> i sold a few stocks in preparedness...
> and they have all shot thru the roof!!!!
> 
> BSG, TZN, etc...




Hi Rafa,

Taking a few profits and banking them does indeed make sense. Its a way of insulating oneself to some degree should another correction occur.
DYOR


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## Lert (3 May 2007)

I get nervous when the all ords is up against the upper trend line and I need to rebalance my SMSF to better meet my criteria to hold so taking advantage this week to exit some non performers. I was lucky I didnt do this last week as planned as there have been some good risers. Keeping a few specs (RDS, ADI) and a few dead ones in the bottom drawer (CSM, ARC) as they dont owe me much.. Keeping Ni and Zn and the big miners and banks.. I dunno, its too hard sometimes as I like to hold, thats my nature I guess


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## nizar (3 May 2007)

YOUNG_TRADER said:


> Well its May and theres no correction .............. YET :couch
> 
> One factor I certainly overlooked was that we had a pretty nasty pullback in Feb/March granted it was short lived, it was nasty nonetheless
> 
> ...




We will not have a correction this May IMO. Well not yet.

We havent been going verticle enough, having gone sideways/bearish for the last few weeks.

As usual - im not going to second guess or predict what the market is going to do, ill just play it stock by stock.

The number of breakouts im seeing eg; MPO, AUZ, NWE, SBS, reminds me of the november/december period.

Strong market until at least June IMO...


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## purple (3 May 2007)

Lert said:


> Keeping Ni and Zn and the big miners and banks.. :




did you say banks? these are the ones who consistently take a dip in May imo. but if you hold the good ones, May becomes just a blip on their uptrend.


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## Buffettology (3 May 2007)

greggy said:


> Hi YT,
> 
> Seeing we had a short and nasty correction only a couple of months ago, I feel that we will not have one in May.  Infact, I still think that the market is heading for 7,000 points sometime this year.  However, there may be a correction in Oct 07. Well, this is my gut feeling anyway.
> DYOR




Yeah, I have the same feeling.


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## YOUNG_TRADER (5 May 2007)

Anyone who was watching the mkts on Friday would have noted the following

BHP up 2.5% 
RIO 5.5% at one point
OXR I think 3% 
ZFX 2%-3%
LHG 2.5% I think

Anyway point being the big miners all rallied and rallied hard on largish volume which could only be the Insto's buying,

Now I know there's rampent talk of Equity Buyouts targeting bigger and bigger Resource Stocks, but if a May correction was on the horizon surely the Insto's would be wary of this?

My thoughts = It now seems even more unlikely we will get a May correction, last week of May is still a slim possibility though

Thoughts?


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## chops_a_must (5 May 2007)

YOUNG_TRADER said:


> Thoughts?




I seem to be changing my mind every hour or so. I'm rather indecisive at the moment. But those stocks DON'T move on the actions of retail investors.

To me, just about across the board, resource stocks are fundamentally undervalued. Where as financials and retailers look fundamentally overvalued across the board. This bull market is based on resources, yet financials and retail has seemingly outperformed resources, which to me doesn't make sense. There has been no logical reason for financials and retail to go on another run since October.

The gold price to me is the x factor though. It has a habit of bringing the DOW down. If it wasn't for the US, I'm sure the XAO would have done much better than what it has, and fundamentally should do well regardless of what the US does. But unfortunately, that's not the way it works. 

Who knows? Maybe a pause or retracement in certain sectors whilst the continuing trend in others? But it does give an opportunity to cut non-performers.


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## nizar (5 May 2007)

chops_a_must said:


> I seem to be changing my mind every hour or so. I'm rather indecisive at the moment. But those stocks DON'T move on the actions of retail investors.
> 
> To me, just about across the board, resource stocks are fundamentally undervalued. Where as financials and retailers look fundamentally overvalued across the board. This bull market is based on resources, yet financials and retail has seemingly outperformed resources, which to me doesn't make sense. There has been no logical reason for financials and retail to go on another run since October.
> 
> ...





Tend to agree with YT and Chops.

After late Feb half correction, and the sideways/bearish action the last 3 weeks, we will NOT have a correction in May.
We always go very verticle just prior to correction, and the last few weeks have been anything but verticle.

ALso from a fundamental point of view, heaps of super money still flooding the markets, and this will continue until at least June, and interest rate decision to keep on hold wednesday and todays RBA update outlook for next 3 months for steady rates provides a sound picture for the equities market.

In my opinion.

Also - what do you guys think of BHP private equity takeover?
IF BHP rallies that will carry the whole market.


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## krisbarry (7 May 2007)

A 3% increase in the Aussie market in the past week surely we will see profit taking over the coming weeks.  Also note tax time is looming...selling will occur anytime now as investors will be getting in early ready to take profits before share prices start to go south.


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## nizar (7 May 2007)

Stop_the_clock said:


> A 3% increase in the Aussie market in the past week surely we will see profit taking over the coming weeks.  Also note tax time is looming...selling will occur anytime now as investors will be getting in early ready to take profits before share prices start to go south.




Whe tax time approach, investors sell their dogs, so the loss can be used to offset any realised capital gains, they dont sell their winners...


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## Pommiegranite (7 May 2007)

nizar said:


> Whe tax time approach, investors sell their dogs, so the loss can be used to offset any realised capital gains, they dont sell their winners...






...one word for no pullback in oz this May : "Superannuation"

July may be a different matter though


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## krisbarry (7 May 2007)

nizar said:


> Whe tax time approach, investors sell their dogs, so the loss can be used to offset any realised capital gains, they dont sell their winners...




What silly comment, even blue chip stocks which investors have made money on right through-out the year drop in June, due to tax selling.


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## krisbarry (8 May 2007)

Here it is girlfriends...that correction that I was talking about, started already 

You little ripper....down we go


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## YOUNG_TRADER (8 May 2007)

Stop_the_clock said:


> Here it is girlfriends...that correction that I was talking about, started already
> 
> You little ripper....down we go




  lol a bit pre mature, that happen often for you? : 

ITS BUDGET NIGHT TONIGHT AND WE CAN EXPECT A WINDFALL


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## dj_420 (8 May 2007)

Stop_the_clock said:


> Here it is girlfriends...that correction that I was talking about, started already
> 
> You little ripper....down we go




hahahaha you have been sitting on cash since december and calling this correction every day, eventually the ASX will have a red day.

i dont think you realise how much money is sidelined waiting to get in just like yours!

DOW is up so doesnt look to red.


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## YOUNG_TRADER (8 May 2007)

I know DJ, isn't it funny?

Whats even funnier is that today is a healthy pause for the XAO after surging the last 4 days

Like DJ said you'll get it right one day STC (perhaps soon  )


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## Uncle Festivus (8 May 2007)

Short term it all depends if the market has factored in a rate reduction in the US. If the Dow advance has already priced in a cut and the rate stays steady then we might have the first real consolidation, & flow on to the ASX.
But as the Fed has a habit of lagging the market I'm punting on rates on hold & small correction Thursday/Friday?


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## krisbarry (8 May 2007)

YOUNG_TRADER said:


> lol a bit pre mature, that happen often for you? :
> 
> ITS BUDGET NIGHT TONIGHT AND WE CAN EXPECT A WINDFALL




Upward pressure on inflation comes from these wild windfalls, we have see it all before!

RBA will be ready to backflip soon enough as people start to spend their tax cuts and raise rates


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## krisbarry (8 May 2007)

dj_420 said:


> hahahaha you have been sitting on cash since december and calling this correction every day, eventually the ASX will have a red day.
> 
> i dont think you realise how much money is sidelined waiting to get in just like yours!
> 
> DOW is up so doesnt look to red.




No just sitting on cash since May 2nd, I am happy with that


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## Kauri (8 May 2007)

Stop_the_clock said:


> No just sitting on cash since May 2nd, I am happy with that



  I noticed that previously you were regularly posting the value of your funds in the super fund. Just out of interest, if you can find it,what would the difference in value be between May 2 and yesterday??


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## krisbarry (8 May 2007)

Kauri said:


> I noticed that previously you were regularly posting the value of your funds in the super fund. Just out of interest, if you can find it,what would the difference in value be between May 2 and yesterday??




This is the latest update I have and that is for the 3rd of May 

Cash position $46,064 + $33 interest = $46,097

if kept in fund I would have $46,209

So I am down by $112 at the moment.


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## nizar (8 May 2007)

Kauri said:


> I noticed that previously you were regularly posting the value of your funds in the super fund.




LOL. Weird isnt it?
Notice how nobody else does this  

I agree with Uncle F regarding US markets.
I dont think a rate cut is priced in.
If Ben says some sweet words that rate cut possible during the year then it could be all good?


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## chops_a_must (8 May 2007)

nizar said:


> I agree with Uncle F regarding US markets.
> I dont think a rate cut is priced in.
> If Ben says some sweet words that rate cut possible during the year then it could be all good?



I'm not so sure Niz. The markets are all looking very very nervous right now. It's a 50/50 call from here as to where they head this week. But I reckon we're in for some short term volatility.


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## UMike (8 May 2007)

YOUNG_TRADER said:


> lol a bit pre mature, that happen often for you? :
> 
> ITS BUDGET NIGHT TONIGHT AND WE CAN EXPECT A WINDFALL



Especially for a certain Childcare business.


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## nomore4s (8 May 2007)

Stop_the_clock said:


> Here it is girlfriends...that correction that I was talking about, started already
> 
> You little ripper....down we go




Never seen anyone so keen on a correction.
I'm a bit unsure of whether you want a correction or a major crash, because in the overall scheme of things, last May was barely a bump considering what has happened since.


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## Out Too Soon (15 May 2007)

Well I'm looking forward to a correction now as I"m out of nearly everything (except BON) . I'll just be cautious that a correction isn't the precursor to a bigger crash Maybe I''l wait until June to reinvest again


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## nizar (15 May 2007)

Out Too Soon said:


> Maybe I''l wait until June to reinvest again




Good thinking.
The markets should be just about ripe for a correction as soon as you become fully invested again!


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## nomore4s (15 May 2007)

nizar said:


> Good thinking.
> The markets should be just about ripe for a correction as soon as you become fully invested again!




lol Nizar I was thinking the same thing, what if the correction comes in June this year, it's only about 2 weeks away.


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## 2020hindsight (16 May 2007)

hey, now the bludy DOW has gone mad again!

I keep trying to get a few more bets on, - but on my terms lol - being hopelessly optimistic, keep placing "buys" a few points under market, and that's where they tend to fall to sleep lol.   

Sometimes the graph comes down like a great eagle and picks up about a third (or a tenth) of what I wanted , so I find that I've bought - ohh great !! 681 YML shares at 36 or 37c for example.  

This picking the correction bit is worse than trying to pick which lane will be fastest going to work.
or standing round the barbq trying to pick which way the wind will blow. 

In my case at least, speaking philosophically, it's like a blind man trying to find a black cat that isn't there in a pitch black room.   

(then again,  maybe I'll find religion -..... and the cat as well )


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## 2020hindsight (16 May 2007)

all those who said the first half of May just lost their bets for a start


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## Out Too Soon (24 May 2007)

nizar said:


> Good thinking.
> The markets should be just about ripe for a correction as soon as you become fully invested again!




LOL! That'd be right 
Of course todays drop broke lower resistance line & it's only Thursday whereas there's normally a bit of a pull back on Friday soooo maaayyybe! 

We'll see!


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## Out Too Soon (24 May 2007)

2020hindsight said:


> hey, now the bludy DOW has gone mad again!
> 
> This picking the correction bit is worse than trying to pick which lane will be fastest going to work.
> or standing round the barbq trying to pick which way the wind will blow.




2020, an optimist like you should know it doesn't matter which side of the bbq you're on; if the smokes blowin' away from you, fine- if the smokes blowin' all around you it's keepin' the mossies off- also fine, so have another beer & be happy.


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## YOUNG_TRADER (25 May 2007)

Out Too Soon said:


> 2020, an optimist like you should know it doesn't matter which side of the bbq you're on; if the smokes blowin' away from you, fine- if the smokes blowin' all around you it's keepin' the mossies off- also fine, so have another beer & be happy.




The words of a truly insightful investor,

Still hoping for the crash my friend? 

Keep saying it, one day you'll be right, then you can say ha! Told you so!

Meanwhile I'll keep making money, to give you an idea I've made more in this month of May than I have in the last year and I'd say I made a fair bit in the last year  

Am glad I didn't sell in May and go away!


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## Out Too Soon (25 May 2007)

Ha! Told you so!, well & truly broken below 3 mth support line. 
You're right tho' YT, I have missed a lot of opportunitys & the market will prob bounce back on Monday. I'm only holding BON & JML & JML doesn't look so hot with a metal price correction & possible market correction. I'm a bit like the Bulldogs tonight- can't do anything right


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## BIG BWACULL (26 May 2007)

If i sold in MAY and went away, i'd have spent all day 
wondering where, if i may, what my money wouldve done today
With limited cashflow, if i sold today i'd never know
What could have been tomorrow, and hence my sorrow
So fortunatley or not, my money is in the spot awaiting a handsome plot
to turn my hard earned savings aloft, with a landing oh so soft 
On the otherside where the grass be green as ive read in a magazine
So hold and wait is my theme so the kids can live their dream 
with me here and there and in between. 
BY B.B


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## nizar (26 May 2007)

Agree with Bwacull and YT.
When you are in this type of market, its MORE RISK being out than being invested.


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## Mofra (26 May 2007)

Gearing in with capital protected products tend to make these predictions more than a little amusing


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## Mousie (26 May 2007)

BIG BWACULL said:


> If i sold in MAY and went away, i'd have spent all day
> wondering where, if i may, what my money wouldve done today
> With limited cashflow, if i sold today i'd never know
> What could have been tomorrow, and hence my sorrow
> ...




That's a gold(en poem) BB - I won't be betting against you having won literature contests in the past!


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## YOUNG_TRADER (26 May 2007)

BIG BWACULL said:


> If i sold in MAY and went away, i'd have spent all day
> wondering where, if i may, what my money wouldve done today
> With limited cashflow, if i sold today i'd never know
> What could have been tomorrow, and hence my sorrow
> ...






Mousie said:


> That's a gold(en poem) BB - I won't be betting against you having won literature contests in the past!




lol couldn't agree more, I've heard of the 'barman poet' (See Cocktail staring Tom Cruise) but never the 'trader poet'


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## YOUNG_TRADER (31 May 2007)

Yawnnnnn, looks like the US markets are ignoring yet another trigger to a Sell in May correction, Chinese mkts fell 6.5% today and I thought hmmm maybe this will be the trigger for a sell off.

But US Mkts are now up! 

*Should have been buy before May and don't sell okay!*


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## Fool (31 May 2007)

YOUNG_TRADER said:


> Yawnnnnn, looks like the US markets are ignoring yet another trigger to a Sell in May correction, Chinese mkts fell 6.5% today and I thought hmmm maybe this will be the trigger for a sell off.
> 
> But US Mkts are now up!
> 
> *Should have been buy before May and don't sell okay!*




Based on the 110 points the DOW went up yesterday (last night), would you say today should be a strong day for the ASX?

I have often heard that we follow the US market more or less exactly.


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## nizar (31 May 2007)

YOUNG_TRADER said:


> Yawnnnnn, looks like the US markets are ignoring yet another trigger to a Sell in May correction, Chinese mkts fell 6.5% today and I thought hmmm maybe this will be the trigger for a sell off.
> 
> But US Mkts are now up!
> 
> *Should have been buy before May and don't sell okay!*




As i suspected, US didnt give a f&*^ about China.
The way it should be. China accounts for, what, less than 3% of global equity markets.


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## YOUNG_TRADER (31 May 2007)

nizar said:


> As i suspected, US didnt give a f&*^ about China.
> The way it should be. China accounts for, what, less than 3% of global equity markets.




Yeah guess being fooled once in Late Feb was enough for the US and Global equity markets,

As a wise man once said "Fool me once, shame on ... shame on ... shame on you! Fool me twice ... ... ... I can't ... you can't fool me twice!" (G. Bush Jnr, the leader of the "Free World")


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## UPKA (31 May 2007)

YOUNG_TRADER said:


> As a wise man once said "Fool me once, shame on ... shame on ... shame on you! Fool me twice ... ... ... I can't ... you can't fool me twice!" (G. Bush Jnr, the leader of the "Free World")




hahah great quote there YT , i think the market has widely expected a correction in China, and yesterday's pull back isnt as bad as i expected, i was thinking something like a 8-9% drop. as long as it within the market expectation, there wont be any panics. plus there r alot of cash sitting around, expect a profitable month in June!


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## steven1234 (31 May 2007)

Some investors are looking for any excuse to sell.  This was evident from the drop yesterday


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## Pommiegranite (1 June 2007)

Well..that's the first day of June over and done with.

Not a major sell of at the end of Friday either.

Kinda bodes well for June me thinks.

Do you all think the 'Sell in May and Go Away' crowd returned today?


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## Lachlan6 (1 June 2007)

What a media hyped up load of @@!!@%!. The old sell in May and go away theory has proved to be one giant fallacy when you look at the last 5 years. Only one year since 2002 has our market fallen sharply in May, proving that this is not a true theory. Ah well, its good to cause a bit of a second think about trading in this 'mythical' month.


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## Mofra (2 June 2007)

nizar said:


> As i suspected, US didnt give a f&*^ about China.
> The way it should be. China accounts for, what, less than 3% of global equity markets.




China is driving much of our current economic boom though, with Australia's economy being highly leveraged to the fortunes of commodities & China's growth the major factor behind the surging commodoties amrkets.

In other words; three percent shmee percent - we are still China's economic bi-ach in the short term.


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## Spaghetti (7 June 2007)

Sell in June - Out of tune?

I have a feeling with the drop today many may see it as time to take a end of FY break. Only a feeling, anyone else have that imagery or I am having a momentary lack of confidence in the market.


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## Lachlan6 (7 June 2007)

GDay Spaghetti. I have been bearish our market and international markets for a little while now. You simply cannot ignore obviously diverging indicators forever. It is the same both on our local market and in the US that the RSI is heavily in negative divergence with price action. The DOW is also displaying this divergence with price, and todays action means it has closed out of a short term trend channel beginning in late March. In fact, it is the first time two sizeable falls have occured on the index consecutively, since the beginning of that short term trend up. Furthermore, today's close, is the first below the 15 day EMA since late March, a sign the up trend is running out of steam.

This brings us to scenarios. If it is just short term profit taking, the index may only fall to around 13,290 (yawn). However if a correction occurs, I am favouring the 12,825 level as key support and retracement. Who know's, the market may just go sideways for a bit before continuing upwards. However, I believe we must have a fall, either a correction or a more sizeable one, as the indicators are screeming red.


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## BIG BWACULL (7 June 2007)

Lachlan6 said:


> GDay Spaghetti. I have been bearish our market and international markets for a little while now. You simply cannot ignore obviously diverging indicators forever. It is the same both on our local market and in the US that the RSI is heavily in negative divergence with price action. The DOW is also displaying this divergence with price, and todays action means it has closed out of a short term trend channel beginning in late March. In fact, it is the first time two sizeable falls have occured on the index consecutively, since the beginning of that short term trend up. Furthermore, today's close, is the first below the 15 day EMA since late March, a sign the up trend is running out of steam.
> 
> This brings us to scenarios. If it is just short term profit taking, the index may only fall to around 13,290 (yawn). However if a correction occurs, I am favouring the 12,825 level as key support and retracement. Who know's, the market may just go sideways for a bit before continuing upwards. However, I believe we must have a fall, either a correction or a more sizeable one, as the indicators are screeming red.



Maybe its time to start a new thread, SELL IN JUNE OR ARE WE IMMUNE


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## Spaghetti (7 June 2007)

Lol we are poetic!

I am comforted by the fact that the stocks I watch haven't recorded huge volumes yet so no evidence of real panic selling. Mind you I don't watch many atm. Have sold out of all but one blue chip due to my assessment they had reached as high as they would go in the short term and could not find any good value replacements. If many people have had my experience then we may have a few fence sitters in the short term. It would also support your analysis Lachlan.


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