# I'm sick to death of 'Experts' predicting crashes...



## Realist (28 March 2007)

Quick question...

Has there ever been a day when some "expert" somewhere did not write an article about an impending stock market crash?


Wars, the year 2000, the Asian bubble, SARS, birdflu, Oil, politics, D-day...The list goes on and on for excuses that the market will crash.


Any small little drop in the price of anything is an indication the 'experts' were right.

If the market goes up it is a WARNING that we are getting dangerously overvalued and closer to D-day.

These experts are never wrong....


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## Joe Blow (28 March 2007)

What about complete amateurs predicting crashes?

Sorry, couldn't resist.


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## tech/a (28 March 2007)

Throw in the millenium bug.
Oh and Jesus will be born again.

But hey England did win back the ashes --albeit momenterily.
There WILL be taxes and you will surely die.


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## Realist (28 March 2007)

Joe Blow said:


> What about complete amateurs predicting crashes?
> 
> Sorry, couldn't resist.




It's a fair point Joe.

Virtually everyone I tell that I don't own a house but put my money into the sharemarket thinks it is risky and asks "what about when it crashes" - as if crashes are a common thing or likely to happen soon.


Few will accept that including dividends shares have always over the longterm outperformed the housing market, and have very little associated costs and require no physical work.


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## YChromozome (28 March 2007)

Realist said:


> These experts are never wrong....




Thats the good thing about predicting crashes. Someday, no doubt it will happen and your right!

If you look at the other side, there are just as many people predicting the housing market will boom another 160% over the next ten years, or resources are in a 20 year (or was that 50 year?) super-cycle.

I do my own research, and only have one person to blame.


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## nizar (28 March 2007)

Yeh i remember that bloke on CNBC been predicting a crash in US markets from October last year. Every month that hes been wrong, theres always an excuse. Then after what happened late Feb he came on TV and beat his chest!

He wasnt wrong just early HAHA in this game its EXACTLY the same thing.

Just ask Buffet he betted USD/GBP would fall in 2005, instead he was on the wrong side of the. Then the experts came out and said Buffet was just early, who cares, he still lost $1billion.

Just as well those "analysts" make their living from "analysis" and not from trading!


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## wayneL (28 March 2007)

<tongueincheek>I agree with you all, all these predictions of crashes are all rubbish.

But as an aside, I think the spiking oils price today is going to crash the market</tongueincheek>


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## Freeballinginawetsuit (28 March 2007)

<Tongueincheek> OLE! .


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## wayneL (28 March 2007)

Watch the Yen


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## Wysiwyg (28 March 2007)

Realist said:


> Quick question...
> 
> Has there ever been a day when some "expert" somewhere did not write an article about an impending stock market crash?
> 
> ...




With history as a comparison this bull run is into uncharted waters. Round and round it goes, where it stops no one knows.


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## YChromozome (28 March 2007)

Wysiwyg said:


> Round and round it goes, where it stops no one knows.




It should stop next month - 100% certainly, I'm an expert.


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## Uncle Festivus (28 March 2007)

Realist said:


> as if crashes are a common thing or likely to happen soon.




So you're an 'expert' predicting it's not going to happen? Blind faith for people who always _assume_ the market will go UP!. Have a look at the chart - it's going vertical! All it means is that when a full blown correction/crash does come it's gonna be a doozy 

And you are willing to bet your life savings on that?


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## Kimosabi (28 March 2007)

Now's the time to get in 100% plus as much Margin Loan as you can get, because look, it just keeps going up and up and up, it'll never end...


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## numbercruncher (28 March 2007)

Time to " Touch Wood " for starting a thread like this


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## Wysiwyg (29 March 2007)

Uncle Festivus said:


> So you're an 'expert' predicting it's not going to happen? Blind faith for people who always _assume_ the market will go UP!. Have a look at the chart - it's going vertical! All it means is that when a full blown correction/crash does come it's gonna be a doozy
> 
> And you are willing to bet your life savings on that?



  I read somewhere that the reason the markets will always go up is because more people are optimistic about life than pessimistic.Simple really.


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## wayneL (29 March 2007)

Wysiwyg said:


> I read somewhere that the reason the markets will always go up is because more people are optimistic about life than pessimistic.Simple really.



Long term there is production, growth, inflation.


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## numbercruncher (29 March 2007)

Im no expert, Ive made reasonble money in the last few years from the Stock market and buying/selling a couple of houses, but i have this undeniable gut feeling or instinct that things are about to go really bad sometime soon ....

Ill still trade but my optimism has bottomed out lately, odd thing ....

Hope im wrong for the sake of all your geared folks etc.


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## 2020hindsight (29 March 2007)

nizar said:


> He wasnt wrong just early HAHA in this game its EXACTLY the same thing.



 read a quote somewhere..
"it's just as sure a recipe for failure to have the right idea 6 months too soon as 6 weeks too late "


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## theasxgorilla (29 March 2007)

wayneL said:


> Long term there is production, growth, inflation.




I got the impression from the Michael Hudson stuff you posted on another thread that there is production, consumption and deflation in the REAL economy, and credit growth and asset price inflation in what he refered to as the FIR.

Another key thing he said: It can't go on forever, but nobody knows how long it can go on.  He's smart enough to know that it's futile to predict the when...and in the meantime he puts his money into term deposits.  I'm younger and dumber...I reckon I can pick the top just in time


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## wayneL (29 March 2007)

theasxgorilla said:


> I got the impression from the Michael Hudson stuff you posted on another thread that there is production, consumption and deflation in the REAL economy, and credit growth and asset price inflation in what he refered to as the FIR.
> 
> Another key thing he said: It can't go on forever, but nobody knows how long it can go on.  He's smart enough to know that it's futile to predict the when...and in the meantime he puts his money into term deposits.  I'm younger and dumber...I reckon I can pick the top just in time



Yes. But my interpretation of that is that those factors are responsible for the acceleration of price over value, ergo, the current asset/debt bubble we find ourselves in.

Yet unless "value" is destroyed by war, declining population or something, value will continue to increase by virtue of the accumulative effect of production.

The question is whether/when price returns to, and possibly overshoots value to the downside.

That's just my take on it.


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## ducati916 (29 March 2007)

theasxgorilla said:


> I got the impression from the Michael Hudson stuff you posted on another thread that there is production, consumption and deflation in the REAL economy, and credit growth and asset price inflation in what he refered to as the FIR.
> 
> Another key thing he said: It can't go on forever, but nobody knows how long it can go on.  He's smart enough to know that it's futile to predict the when...and in the meantime he puts his money into term deposits.  I'm younger and dumber...I reckon I can pick the top just in time




ASX.G

That's exactly right.
Inflation = loss of purchasing power.

Currently your $1 will buy far less [return] financial assets [take your pick]
Overvaluations are everywhere.

jog on
d998


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## wayneL (29 March 2007)

*News Flash:*

Market at major top. Bear market to start this year say Elliott Wave experts.


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## Atomic5 (29 March 2007)

nizar said:


> Yeh i remember that bloke on CNBC been predicting a crash in US markets from October last year. Every month that hes been wrong, theres always an excuse. Then after what happened late Feb he came on TV and beat his chest!
> 
> He wasnt wrong just early HAHA in this game its EXACTLY the same thing.
> 
> ...





No-one mentions that Buffet completely misssed out on the dot com boom.


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## greggy (29 March 2007)

Atomic5 said:


> No-one mentions that Buffet completely misssed out on the dot com boom.



I don't take much notice of "expert's" opinions.  When given to the public for free, one could question the motives behind it?  Barely any of them predicted the start of the resources boom and I remember them saying that I should sell my BHP shares when they fell to $11.  Luckily I held on.  
As for Mr Buffet, he's a brilliant investor, but he too gets it wrong sometimes.  In the end, its probably best to do your own homework.  I've got quite a number of good ideas from this forum which has led to further research on my part before making any decisions.
DYOR


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## Gundini (29 March 2007)

Joe Blow said:


> What about complete amateurs predicting crashes?
> 
> Sorry, couldn't resist.




Even a broken clock is right twice a day...


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## theasxgorilla (29 March 2007)

Atomic5 said:


> No-one mentions that Buffet completely misssed out on the dot com boom.




Oh EXACTLY!  No-one mentions he was incredibly wealthy already, didn't need it anyway, and could rest on his Berkshire Hathaway laurels.


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## ducati916 (29 March 2007)

Atomic5 said:


> No-one mentions that Buffet completely misssed out on the dot com boom.




Well yes, there is a reason for that. In essence he didn't.
While he didn't hold any worthless dot.coms he had stock holdings purchased at the bottom of the 1974 and 1982 bear markets that appreciated very nicely in the 1982-2000 bull market.

Additionally, he sold them all out near the top in 1998, and avoided paying the tax to boot.

That's why he's worth $50 billion+ and people pay $25K to have lunch with him.

jog on
d998


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## Realist (29 March 2007)

Uncle Festivus said:


> And you are willing to bet your life savings on that?




Yep!  Already have!


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## CanOz (29 March 2007)

Realist said:


> Yep!  Already have!




Good to see you posting again anyway Realist, i thought we'd lost you on that last wave down. Still reading the T/A books?

Cheers,


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## nioka (29 March 2007)

Gundini said:


> Even a broken clock is right twice a day...




Very true and topical. That one should have been posted on Quote for the day as well.


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## Atomic5 (29 March 2007)

The ASX has got to be one of the best performing markets on the planet lately ... it seems independently very strong ... ?! Todays opening is amazing.


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## greggy (29 March 2007)

Atomic5 said:


> The ASX has got to be one of the best performing markets on the planet lately ... it seems independently very strong ... ?! Todays opening is amazing.



Fingers crossed that it will continue like this.


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## Atomic5 (29 March 2007)

theasxgorilla said:


> Oh EXACTLY!  No-one mentions he was incredibly wealthy already, didn't need it anyway, and could rest on his Berkshire Hathaway laurels.




ok   Im just parroting a comment I heard. I didn't invest in any dot come either, but not for the same reason  ...  
Thanks.


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## Atomic5 (29 March 2007)

greggy said:


> Fingers crossed that it will continue like this.




Ive been watching the international markets all week and they are all dipping in tandem .... this is surprising but Im getting used to it.


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## greggy (29 March 2007)

Atomic5 said:


> Ive been watching the international markets all week and they are all dipping in tandem .... this is surprising but Im getting used to it.



Thats what makes the market so interesting. Never a dull day.


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## nizar (29 March 2007)

Atomic5 said:


> No-one mentions that Buffet completely misssed out on the dot com boom.




Yep he made 0.5% in the year the NASDAQ doubled.


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## theasxgorilla (29 March 2007)

nizar said:


> Yep he made 0.5% in the year the NASDAQ doubled.




Convert that to dollars


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## numbercruncher (29 March 2007)

nizar said:


> Yep he made 0.5% in the year the NASDAQ doubled.




From memory didnt he hold atleast 20pc of the Worlds silver during this period ? Im sure he made a busload.


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## tech/a (29 March 2007)

Ever heard of Bunker and William Hunt?

Silver thursday?

Check their story out.--

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Nelson_Bunker_Hunt


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## Atomic5 (29 March 2007)

tech/a said:


> Ever heard of Bunker and William Hunt?
> 
> Silver thursday?
> 
> ...




  Whats that saying ..... steal a little and they put you in jail, steal a lot and they make you King .....


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## Kimosabi (29 March 2007)

Atomic5 said:


> No-one mentions that Buffet completely misssed out on the dot com boom.




Everyone forgets to mention he also missed out on the bust as well...


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## Realist (29 March 2007)

CanOz said:


> Good to see you posting again anyway Realist, i thought we'd lost you on that last wave down. Still reading the T/A books?
> 
> Cheers,





No, I've not read a stockmarket book for 6 months, I'm a bit bored of it at the moment.

Infact I have not bought a stock for about 6 months either. Preferring to spend my money on alcohol, ciggarettes and Women.


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## Pat (29 March 2007)

Uncle Festivus said:


> So you're an 'expert' predicting it's not going to happen? Blind faith for people who always _assume_ the market will go UP!. Have a look at the chart - it's going vertical! All it means is that when a full blown correction/crash does come it's gonna be a doozy
> 
> And you are willing to bet your life savings on that?




This would have to be the next world wide depression/recession. 
The money makers will do anything possible to stop this occuring... it's not profitable, same reason we have not seen a major war (world wide) since WW2. Thank the rich and powerful!


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## tech/a (29 March 2007)

Realist said:


> I'm a bit bored of it at the moment.
> 
> Infact I have not bought a stock for about 6 months either.




Strange thats not what your posts have indicated from back a few months ago.


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## wayneL (29 March 2007)

Breaking news....

Abbey Joseph Cohen still bullish.










(would only be funny to those who follow CNNNNNNNNNNN etc)


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## BentRod (1 February 2009)

Realist said:


> Quick question...
> 
> Has there ever been a day when some "expert" somewhere did not write an article about an impending stock market crash?
> 
> ...




 ATT:  This is an Old Thread from 2007 

I just noticed it was your Birthday Big Boy.

All the best!:alcohol:


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## numbercruncher (1 February 2009)

numbercruncher said:


> Time to " Touch Wood " for starting a thread like this




Just like a time capsule ....


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## Aussiejeff (1 February 2009)

numbercruncher said:


> Just like a time capsule ....




Hurry!

Re-bury it, quick, before the Financial Tsunami washes it into the Abyss forever!!!

LOL


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## noirua (1 February 2009)

If you want a rubbish decision get yourself a team of experts.


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