# Which of the major banks??



## mime (7 November 2008)

Hey guys. Which of the major banks do you guys think are the best investments and why?


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## agro (7 November 2008)

mime said:


> Hey guys. Which of the major banks do you guys think are the best investments and why?




CBA because of dividends


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## Big_Daz (7 November 2008)

I like Westpac base don the fundamentals and potential:
- Good proven quality management
- Solid dividend yield (6%+ fully franked. I know other banks have similar however it still has high div yeild)
- Growth (with the Merger with St George and synergies ect it produces growth hopefully will be able to be realised)
- MArket cap/size (again with merger will be (I think) biggest bank in oz)
- Share price: based on the above I believe like most other banks it is on the cheaper side.

I also like Combank...

But I am a sucker for the banking sector...


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## sammy84 (7 November 2008)

I think the common consensus is that Westpac and Commonwealth are the best placed to weather any continuing financial crisis. ANZ and NAB on the other hand represent good value as they have been severely oversold and would benefit greatly if there is a sustained rally.


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## shaunQ (7 November 2008)

I traded CBA over the last few days, (before the crash), and found it lacked volume (relative to other banks) and something was not right, people are selling and keeping it down, this was while ANZ and NAB took off with two 8% odd gains in a row. This may have been because of ABC learning coming up.

I'd say NAB, just because I think they have released a lot of their bad information.


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## CAB SAV (7 November 2008)

shaunQ said:


> I traded CBA over the last few days, (before the crash), and found it lacked volume (relative to other banks) and something was not right, people are selling and keeping it down, this was while ANZ and NAB took off with two 8% odd gains in a row. This may have been because of ABC learning coming up.
> 
> I'd say NAB, just because I think they have released a lot of their bad information.




Probably people chasing divs, ANZ ex 6/11 & NAB 7/11


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## cuttlefish (7 November 2008)

none


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## weird (7 November 2008)

Not the top 4, but have a look at the chart of BEN. 

Perhaps even apply some EW to it, if you're that way inclined.


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## cuttlefish (7 November 2008)

They've all got nobody to lend money to and no money to lend.


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## shaunQ (7 November 2008)

> Probably people chasing divs, ANZ ex 6/11 & NAB 7/11




Ah, yes that would explain it! But I think other banks were still performing better than CBA.


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## gfresh (8 November 2008)

Still would want to watch Centro exposure with CBA.. could slash off hundreds of millions of the bottom line if they have to shut up shop on Centro. Will lose more than the dividend price if that comes to pass. 

Still would want to watch European "conduit" exposure for NAB due to current recession/possibility of heavy corporate defaults. That could result in further write-downs and possible further cap-raising.  

ANZ, made mistakes, probably still making mistakes. Share price still falling the worst, who trusts it? I don't.. 

Which leads WBC I guess as the lesser of the evils..


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## mazzatelli1000 (8 November 2008)

cuttlefish said:


> none




Banks and financials - these guys are all paper assets 
Lots of smoke and mirrors


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## skyQuake (8 November 2008)

I'll stick my neck out and say MQG.
Its business model thrives on cheap debt but it does not _live_ off it.  Advisory, IB and Funds management account for a good part of its earnings too.
The selloff in MQG is pretty much sympathy selling... People assume all investment banks are the same, eg. Bear Sterns = Lehmans = ML = Goldmans = Macquarie... etc.
Anyone that wants to do a valuation on Macq will find things incredibly opaque. And here in times of uncertainity, opaque means fleeing investors... Despite having no subprime exposure (got rid of all that in 07), and enough cash to fund itself for around 18months, its got bad sentiment behind it. And thats stronger than any piece of fundamental you can throw at it, at least in the short term.


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## sammy84 (8 November 2008)

skyQuake said:


> I'll stick my neck out and say MQG.
> Its business model thrives on cheap debt but it does not _live_ off it.  Advisory, IB and Funds management account for a good part of its earnings too.
> The selloff in MQG is pretty much sympathy selling... People assume all investment banks are the same, eg. Bear Sterns = Lehmans = ML = Goldmans = Macquarie... etc.
> Anyone that wants to do a valuation on Macq will find things incredibly opaque. And here in times of uncertainity, opaque means fleeing investors... Despite having no subprime exposure (got rid of all that in 07), and enough cash to fund itself for around 18months, its got bad sentiment behind it. And thats stronger than any piece of fundamental you can throw at it, at least in the short term.




Completely agree with you SkyQuake. Macq's advisory services are second to none and still very profitable. Also the assets on its balance sheet are of an incredible quality and defensive. Finally it must be remembered that its management are some of the most talented minds in the country. Nonetheless, I will be waiting for new posts claiming the Macq model is broken.


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## CanOz (8 November 2008)

gfresh said:


> Still would want to watch Centro exposure with CBA.. could slash off hundreds of millions of the bottom line if they have to shut up shop on Centro. Will lose more than the dividend price if that comes to pass.
> 
> Still would want to watch European "conduit" exposure for NAB due to current recession/possibility of heavy corporate defaults. That could result in further write-downs and possible further cap-raising.
> 
> ...




Yes, WBC. Interesting table on page 34 of the Weekend Australian which list some of the exposure to toxic debt.

I'm not particularly concerned about an investment, more like which one is the safest to actually bank with at the moment.

Cheers,


CanOz


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## nunthewiser (8 November 2008)

weird said:


> Not the top 4, but have a look at the chart of BEN.
> 
> Perhaps even apply some EW to it, if you're that way inclined.




I like BEN on the  fact of low overseas exposure , high depositfunds/loan ratio

plus numerous other reasons

i moved my cash there at the start of the subprime saga 

good bunch to do business with


blessem


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## Whiskers (8 November 2008)

shaunQ said:


> I traded CBA over the last few days, (before the crash), and found it lacked volume (relative to other banks) and something was not right, people are selling and keeping it down, this was while ANZ and NAB took off with two 8% odd gains in a row. This may have been because of ABC learning coming up.
> 
> I'd say NAB, just because I think they have released a lot of their bad information.




NAB and ANZ, because they both have a morning star or three (of sorts) under them.


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