# Where are the markets heading?



## KIWIKARLOS (27 June 2007)

I would like to hear some opinions on the current downturn.

We have had consecutive drops across most markets will htis continue, get worse or recover.

Current Market Pros:
earnings season would expect some good company profits.
Still strong demand for commodities
Lots of money around the world to be invested

Cons:
Dodgy loans are hitting risky investment funds: will this only effect high risk funds which prob won't roll over to less risky investments. From what i understand hedge funds are legally set up so the company has no liability so the private investor stands to loose most?
Interest rate worries: US don't look like raising rates soon, Aussie either however japan and europe, china more likely:
China introducing new measure to control market: What could these be interest rate hike, other macro controls ?

My opinion is there is a downturn happening but current market is a bit panicing and that we could see a mild recovery in the next couple weeks followed by further fluctuations for next 12-18 months.
Big worry is the US building market, if that goes then i can see problems spreading hard and fast but can't see this happening untill middle - end of US housing market season (end of summer).

I only ask one thing could we not get stuck on severe market correction talk, I would like some balanced views


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## nizar (27 June 2007)

Ok my opinion.
This correction maybe last another 3-4 weeks, support at 6200 for XAO will be broken, and the lows should touch to 5900 or close to the 200dma.

That would set us up nicely for the next run to 7000 which will peak in October.


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## nioka (27 June 2007)

The end of the financial year, along with the changes to super are confusing the situation this week. Some funds are also selling to lock in profits so that their position looks good. Some buyers a selling poor performers to get the tax loss advantage. Super funds will have a lot of new money to find a home for next week. Inventories are let run down for stocktaking. The end of next week will start to show a trend and the market will react better when the June quarter accounts are presented.
 It may be a bumpy ride but i suggest things will be rosy for some time yet.


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## dj_420 (27 June 2007)

hmmmm well im down around 6% today, got hit hard.

i suppose my portfolio has run over 10% in last two weeks so it is ok, just annoying to see such a drop before june 30, when i was going to sell some of my positions, or reduce them anyway.


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## powerkoala (27 June 2007)

with dow jones lost 3 days in the row and market are waiting for bernanke's speech end of this week i think we will go south until end of financial year, then start to go north again. profit seller or stop loss for taxation purposes drive today's selling off. 120 point down. not bad for first correction. i think 6000 will be the support for xao. let see what happen in next 2 days.


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## UPKA (27 June 2007)

its reall a bit mix of everything today, end of financial year and bit of correction lead by the US, and also the weaker commodity prices. i guess im more optimistic about these kinda of gradual correction over a period of few days than a big drop in 1 day like wat we saw in China. I think its a bit bloomy in the US housing market, untill we see some stability there we might see this retreat to last a bit longer. as for our market, it's important to see the Chinese n Japanese to keep their demand up, and keep the commodity price stable, then 90% of us here will walk around with smile on our faces


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## prawn_86 (27 June 2007)

im no market guru, but from a personal point of veiw i would much rather see the market 'ease' like it has over the last few days rather than a sudden drop and a lot of panick selling. especially since all my capital is tied up at the moment


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## juiceman (27 June 2007)

nizar said:


> Ok my opinion.
> This correction maybe last another 3-4 weeks, support at 6200 for XAO will be broken, and the lows should touch to 5900 or close to the 200dma.
> 
> That would set us up nicely for the next run to 7000 which will peak in October.




I agree with Nizar
+Two double tops on the Dow and S&p 500 don't help much
The realestate thing, the hedge fund thing,which way is the wind thing blowing.
The Americans love any excuse to move and shake the markets thats how they make money


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## >Apocalypto< (27 June 2007)

KIWIKARLOS said:


> I would like to hear some opinions on the current downturn.
> 
> We have had consecutive drops across most markets will htis continue, get worse or recover.
> 
> ...




Short term south.

Next areas of support 6150 - 6000 enjoy the ride.


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## Ken (27 June 2007)

Those looking for some bargains, I would hope the market weakens some more....

I have a margin loan to fill out.


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## wayneL (27 June 2007)

A leading indicator to keep a close eye on is US treasuries. Lower treasuries mean higher longer term interest rates. Longer term interest rates will mean reduced profits for many companies and a re-evaluation of what risk premium means.

The latest run down in these bonds (and implication for further damage in the housing/mortgage market) is what has precipitated the current negativity. It's currently in a retracement, so further dumpage could put the cat amongst the pigeons.

Keep an eye on it here: http://new.quote.com/futures/adv_ch...tUi.bardensity=HIGH&chartUi.overlay=&x=59&y=5


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## TheRage (27 June 2007)

From a fundamentalist perspective it will probably take a few weeks for the Super money to find it's way to the market with clearing, investment decisions etc. This proabbly lines up with most of the charts you guys are forecasting. I expect a fair bit of selling tommorrow. I think everyone is underestimating the amount of money that is currently flowing into Super. We have taken in about 20 Million this week alone that has come from the sale of Farms, property etc. I haven't seen too much money coming from the sale of shares being put into Super. This doesn't mean that there isn't any but I have seen whole lot more from the sale of businesses and property. In my mind this will create more demand for australian securities by funds managers in the coming weeks once the dust settles.


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## wavepicker (27 June 2007)

Noticed something very interesting on ASF in the last 15 months.  

On 2 seperate occasions now, when the amount of users on ASF has broken into a new record, this has preceded a correction in the market. 

In early May of last year, a new record was set at over 500 users online. One day later, the largest correction since the whole bull advance started commenced.

Just last friday another new record with 767 users online, and this week the market is down hard. Just a coincidence, or is this an example of extreme optimism??


Another example, I read in the Herald Sun on the weekend that property prices are "EXPECTED TO GO THROUGH THE ROOF" in the next ten years. The writer of of this article was projecting the past trend into the future, which once again is an example of extreme optimism. Will be interesting to see what in fact does transpire but with such optimism I think prices have very little chance of going through the roof, as they have already done so for the last 
10 years!!

This doesn't seem to happen with only extreme optimism, last year on this site I noticed the extreme pessimism regarding TLS, so much negativity with most saying this would not make a good trade and was a dud. When polled 95% of moms and dads agreed this was a dud. This is important information, because in my opinion, the more that disagree with you, the greater your chance of success are. What seems logical in the market usually is what does not happen. So what did TLS do after the mums and dads said it was a dud?? It rallied 47% in 6 months.

Now I am seeing extreme pessimism in the US Dollar, one again the financial press is calling the USD the next Mexican PESO, and down with the dollar, this is even greater than at the last low of DEC 2004 even though price has not made a new low. IMO this is a very significant divergence which might bring the commodities boom to it's knees in the next couple of years, thereafter, well who knows.

Interesting times indeed

Cheers



Cheers


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## CanOz (27 June 2007)

Some great points there Waves.

I noticed that ASF record too, only yesterday and was thinking "hmmm, i wonder what the heck is going to happen next?"

Now, wheres those shorts?

Cheers,


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## wayneL (27 June 2007)

From the financial times

http://www.ft.com/cms/s/2b7e102a-24...621.html&_i_referer=http://www.ft.com/home/uk



> Market insight: Liquidity under threat
> 
> By Charles Dumas
> 
> ...


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## CanOz (27 June 2007)

wayneL said:


> A leading indicator to keep a close eye on is US treasuries. Lower treasuries mean higher longer term interest rates. Longer term interest rates will mean reduced profits for many companies and a re-evaluation of what risk premium means.
> 
> The latest run down in these bonds (and implication for further damage in the housing/mortgage market) is what has precipitated the current negativity. It's currently in a retracement, so further dumpage could put the cat amongst the pigeons.
> 
> Keep an eye on it here: http://new.quote.com/futures/adv_ch...tUi.bardensity=HIGH&chartUi.overlay=&x=59&y=5





Whats also interesting is that if this is the completion of the retracement, and the H&S target comes to fruition, it could be a long way down yet.


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## Sean K (27 June 2007)

CanOz said:


> Whats also interesting is that if this is the completion of the retracement, and the H&S target comes to fruition, it could be a long way down yet.



Hasn't the H&S hit it's approximate target there Can, and coinciding with support, wouldn't you expect a halt as it has at 104 ish?


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## CanOz (27 June 2007)

kennas said:


> Hasn't the H&S hit it's approximate target there Can, and coinciding with support, wouldn't you expect a halt as it has at 104 ish?




I've got it as 102.73, 100% retracement from the high, or 50% from the neckline, am i missing something?

Cheers,


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## wayneL (27 June 2007)

Expect TY to be in the high 90's within eighteen months.


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## stoxclimber (27 June 2007)

Ahh, familiar faces since the last correction...cant teach an old bear new tricks

Being facitious aside, since everyone is predicting the market to go down tomorrow I'll predict it to go up.


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## BradK (27 June 2007)

All eyes on the DOW tonight... but me too... I think we will have a bounce tommorrow... maybe a significant one... and then, timber... watch out below 

Cheers
Brad


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## CanOz (27 June 2007)

stoxclimber said:


> since everyone is predicting the market to go down tomorrow I'll predict it to go up.




Oh course it will, i just shorted it.

Cheers,


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## theasxgorilla (27 June 2007)

Yes, I think that the US has had a lot of down days in a row and is probably due to take a breather tonight...particularly given that both XAO and S&P500 are at significant support levels.  If the US breaks overnight, its got to be a good indication of what to expect tomorrow on the XAO.


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## reece55 (27 June 2007)

Well, I'm not really all that different from most people here.....

I focus on the XJO's and if you look at the index, we have almost completed our broadening top. We additionally almost have a double top, which would be confirmed on a break down below about 6170. In my opinion, it's going to take a lot of momentum to get us above the 6410 level. BHP was really holding us up for a while, but even it has succumb to the downside. Put another way, if you were buying the index, anyone who entered after the end of April is yielding either a loss or neutral at the present stage. Hard to believe, but thats where we are at the present stage.

So, whilst I believe there will be some fund manager pumping on Friday to ensure they all get bonuses, short term I wouldn't be surprised to see the 6,000 level. At the end of it all, this might flesh out the weak holders before another lunge up. But personally, I have my guard up. Bit disappointed however, because I had called a number of shorts that I didn't quite have a chance to enter yesterday due to work commitments (TSE comes to mind if you see my blog). 

So, short term negative, but I'm not short selling the house. Plus, after such a lunge down, unless the US craps itself, there will be a retrace on Thurs and Fri.

Like your comments Wavepicker, guess this just illustrates that going with the crowd often loses you money. I nearly went long in PDN on yesterday, but after I saw that it was the number 1 stock bought on Comsec, I swiftly reconsidered my position (condolences to Snake here however) and decided against it.

Cheers and all the best trading to everyone..
Reece


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## >Apocalypto< (27 June 2007)

kennas said:


> Hasn't the H&S hit it's approximate target there Can, and coinciding with support, wouldn't you expect a halt as it has at 104 ish?




That looks right to me Kennas it has dropped it's measured amount, but Can that rally that is taking place now could turn out to be a minor retrace and a continuation to further down side.


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## CanOz (27 June 2007)

reece55 said:


> Well, I'm not really all that different from most people here.....
> 
> I focus on the XJO's and if you look at the index, we have almost completed our broadening top. We additionally almost have a double top, which would be confirmed on a break down below about 6170. In my opinion, it's going to take a lot of momentum to get us above the 6410 level. BHP was really holding us up for a while, but even it has succumb to the downside. Put another way, if you were buying the index, anyone who entered after the end of April is yielding either a loss or neutral at the present stage. Hard to believe, but thats where we are at the present stage.
> 
> ...




Now that i have a found a good proxy server site, i can finally check out some of these fine Blogs! Nice Blog Reese.

Cheers,


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## tech/a (28 June 2007)

> So I'm confident now that unless 6170 is breached that there is further steam in the XJO this leg is nearing completion however if the low of 6170 is intact and a new high is made first target is 6610 then 6850.




No point in being reactive to market moves.
There are points which will tell you if your/our current analysis is proven correct or needs to be re evaluated.

Wayne has pointed out some important leading indicators and I also see value in points TheRage has made.


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## nizar (28 June 2007)

tech/a said:


> No point in being reactive to market moves.




Actually tech, i thought this was the whole point of trading.
Instead of being predictive of market moves, rather, we should react to them, and have a plan to deal with whichever situation eventuates.


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## tech/a (28 June 2007)

I see no problems with setting parameters using "Predictive" type analysis.
But reacting to every substantial move serves no purpose emotionally or profitably.

Again its the *APPLICATION* of the analysis NOT the analysis itself!


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## billhill (28 June 2007)

wayneL said:
			
		

> A leading indicator to keep a close eye on is US treasuries. Lower treasuries mean higher longer term interest rates. Longer term interest rates will mean reduced profits for many companies and a re-evaluation of what risk premium means.




Wayne, doesn't the rising bond yeild actually signal that the US economy is doing better then expected. I understand that higher interest rates are bad for companies in general but having said that isn't the other side of the coin (ie falling bond yeilds) a US recession or at least much poorer economic performance. I'm no economist so i'm a little confused which one is worse for stocks higher interest rates or a slower economy.


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## stoxclimber (28 June 2007)

CanOz said:


> Oh course it will, i just shorted it.
> 
> Cheers,




well there you go


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## Sean K (28 June 2007)

Dead cat anyone?


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## >Apocalypto< (28 June 2007)

tech/a said:


> No point in being reactive to market moves.
> There are points which will tell you if your/our current analysis is proven correct or needs to be re evaluated.




Sorry nizar, Tech has nailed it on the head with that comment.

That is a comment based on experience and no emotional attachment.

That is a big mistake i used to make, jumping on these first green days with out waiting to make sure it has forced my opinion to change about current market direction. 

Kennas,

Hmmmm,  

Couple of days will determine that!


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## reece55 (28 June 2007)

kennas said:


> Dead cat anyone?




MMmmmmmm..... dead cat....... LOL....

Put your guard up gents, tomorrow no doubt will be up again with the fund managers playing funny buggers, but this is (in my mind) is definitely a dead cat bounce. Lighter volume all round today, the sellers are letting things settle a bit. Still say we will see 6100 - 6000 well before we get above 6410.....

Tech, Tradeit, you've all hit the nail on the head - we want to wait for confirmation that a recovery is here before leaping in with our money. Let the managed funds with significant $$ to do the dirty work.

By the way, cheers Can for the positive comments on the blog.

Cheers


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## theasxgorilla (28 June 2007)

reece55 said:


> Tech, Tradeit, you've all hit the nail on the head - we want to wait for confirmation that a recovery is here before leaping in with our money.




I'm (almost) fully invested...so I'm waiting for something substantial to tell me I should be pulling my money out!


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## nizar (28 June 2007)

Trade_It said:


> Sorry nizar, Tech has nailed it on the head with that comment.
> 
> That is a comment based on experience and no emotional attachment.
> 
> ...





No need to apologise.
You and tech are much more experienced than me.
I was wrong, thats okay.
You live and you learn, and i learnt something today.
Thanks


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## nizar (28 June 2007)

theasxgorilla said:


> I'm (almost) fully invested...so I'm waiting for something substantial to tell me I should be pulling my money out!




So was I bro, until this morning.
Got stopped out of a few things.


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## >Apocalypto< (28 June 2007)

theasxgorilla said:


> I'm (almost) fully invested...so I'm waiting for something substantial to tell me I should be pulling my money out!




As of when ASX today? Last year? 03?


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## theasxgorilla (28 June 2007)

Trade_It said:


> As of when ASX today? Last year? 03?




Yesterday! I'm buying the dip 

Seriously though, I've been between 60% and 100% since mid-03.


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## >Apocalypto< (28 June 2007)

theasxgorilla said:


> Yesterday! I'm buying the dip
> 
> Seriously though, I've been between 60% and 100% since mid-03.




Hmmm a very interesting move! I played that on the last rally on the dow xjo MBL.

I opened a long on the aussie$$. so not 100% any more

but after i saw that last rally get taken down, which i was in. I am now more interested to see what happens here, we are in a range on XJO now 6230 support  6380 resistence. since seeing that. I want to see how things take shape, a little more confrimation for me this time round. if it can break 6380 then 6400 that could be game on!

But nice play, ASX i am a fan of that, I like to see 2 touch minor support with a higher high. they usually happen just after sell offs.


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## chops_a_must (28 June 2007)

wavepicker said:


> Now I am seeing extreme pessimism in the US Dollar, one again the financial press is calling the USD the next Mexican PESO, and down with the dollar, this is even greater than at the last low of DEC 2004 even though price has not made a new low. IMO this is a very significant divergence which might bring the commodities boom to it's knees in the next couple of years, thereafter, well who knows.



Ah well, we've gone from an end to the commoditites boom in the next few weeks/ months to the next few years.

Just one thing, you've called for a bottom in gold sometime through 2008/09. Yet, you've also stated that commodities and gold in particular do not behave positively in times of a rising USD. So to me the analysis seems contradictory.


Trade_It said:


> But nice play, ASX i am a fan of that, I like to see 2 touch minor support with a higher high. they usually happen just after sell offs.



Looks like a short term reversal to me. I've circled the similarities between the EOD today and other patterns. Almost exact double bottoms on green to red candles appear to give out quite a bit of energy. Works for stocks too. Should develop a system based on this...

Mind you, I did expect the XJO to get to 6100 or thereabouts. But what would I know? I'm just a hack.

Cheers,
Chops.


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## theasxgorilla (28 June 2007)

Trade_It said:


> But nice play, ASX i am a fan of that, I like to see 2 touch minor support with a higher high. they usually happen just after sell offs.




Is there a sarcasm emoticon?  I didn't buy the dip...was being a little facetious.  The only new position I've opened since Feb '07 was OXR earlier this month.  I added to positions in OSH and WES too, but all other positions date back to Oct-Dec '06.

Here are a few other indexes to put our market and the S&P500s movements over the last few days into perspective...both the Hangseng and the DAX continue to trade above their 40-day EMAs and neither has exhibited a lower high like the aforementioned markets.
	

		
			
		

		
	

View attachment 10589


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## theasxgorilla (28 June 2007)

wavepicker said:


> On 2 seperate occasions now, when the amount of users on ASF has broken into a new record, this has preceded a correction in the market.




Nice work Waves...thats up there with the Ed Seykota magazine cover indicator.



wavepicker said:


> Just last friday another new record with 767 users online, and this week the market is down hard. Just a coincidence, or is this an example of extreme optimism??




I actually find that personally I'm more likely to post if my portfolio is doing well...more self-psychology work to be in done in this space, to be sure.



wavepicker said:


> Another example, I read in the Herald Sun on the weekend that property prices are "EXPECTED TO GO THROUGH THE ROOF" in the next ten years. The writer of of this article was projecting the past trend into the future, which once again is an example of extreme optimism. Will be interesting to see what in fact does transpire but with such optimism I think prices have very little chance of going through the roof, as they have already done so for the last
> 10 years!!




As with your comments on another thread about the $US...when everybody thinks that something is a foregone conclusion the timing is usually right for a reversal.  Joe Public and the media at large have believed that property sucked and would continue to suck as an investment in Australia (with the exception of mining boom affected regions) for 'years to come'.  Apply the same reasoning to real estate and wonder why for the last couple of years rents are going up, prices are going up, people are re-entering the market and only now this hero-journalist comes along with his 10-year trend projection.



wavepicker said:


> Now I am seeing extreme pessimism in the US Dollar, one again the financial press is calling the USD the next Mexican PESO, and down with the dollar, this is even greater than at the last low of DEC 2004 even though price has not made a new low. IMO this is a very significant divergence which might bring the commodities boom to it's knees in the next couple of years, thereafter, well who knows.




Or it could just be a running commentary from those who make a living from writing stories about the fluctuations of a market...as opposed to them who put their money in a place where it can take advantage of the macro-trends and spend their energy trying to ignore 'authoritative' sounding running commentary.


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## >Apocalypto< (28 June 2007)

theasxgorilla said:


> Is there a sarcasm emoticon?  I didn't buy the dip...was being a little facetious.  The only new position I've opened since Feb '07 was OXR earlier this month.  I added to positions in OSH and WES too, but all other positions date back to Oct-Dec '06.
> 
> Here are a few other indexes to put our market and the S&P500s movements over the last few days into perspective...both the Hangseng and the DAX continue to trade above their 40-day EMAs and neither has exhibited a lower high like the aforementioned markets.
> 
> ...




o ok got u ASX know I feel like a dill,

well yeh next time please note that down! I am getting slower in my old age!


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## >Apocalypto< (28 June 2007)

chops_a_must said:


> Ah well, we've gone from an end to the commoditites boom in the next few weeks/ months to the next few years.
> 
> Just one thing, you've called for a bottom in gold sometime through 2008/09. Yet, you've also stated that commodities and gold in particular do not behave positively in times of a rising USD. So to me the analysis seems contradictory.
> 
> ...




nice chart chops and thanks for posting that Bull charts xjo with volume looks great.

no you r on a winner in your thoughts thats what i look for I ment a higher low not higher high.

this looked good to me as well so far failed double top and yes a double bottom at this point.


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## wavepicker (28 June 2007)

chops_a_must said:


> Just one thing, you've called for a bottom in gold sometime through 2008/09. Yet, you've also stated that commodities and gold in particular do not behave positively in times of a rising USD. So to me the analysis seems contradictory.
> 
> Chops.




Hello Chops,

Not really, if USD is about to commence a multi year advance soon(say 2-3 years), then this ties in pretty closely with Gold continuing nett sideways/downward bias for the next 2 years, don't you think?? This market is running a 8.5 year cycle. Just remember cycles are not precision timing, sometimes price bottoms before the cycle and other times the cycle before price, so the 2008/9 window could be plus or minus a little, perhaps even a year.

Refer to the following link: https://www.aussiestockforums.com/forums/showthread.php?t=2366&page=23

posts #446 and 454  on 20th May last year forecasting this current market in Gold.

Would estimate a rally in the USD to carry to about 100 and this would not be the end of the secular bear in the USD, but rather a temporary pause, but in the end the market will do what it likes. What is interesting however as mentioned in an earlier post is that pessimism now(bottom wave red B )is worse than that of the actual low in (red wave 5) in Dec 2004


Cheers


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## wavepicker (28 June 2007)

theasxgorilla said:


> Nice work Waves...thats up there with the Ed Seykota magazine cover indicator.
> 
> 
> 
> ...




Hi ASXG,

It's certainly interesting looking at all this stuff indeed, not that I am a strong advocate of trading/investing on this sort of information in isolation. I like to see however how sentiment fits into other aspects of the market, such as patterns/pattern of the trend and volume.

I read a book on trying incorporate this sort of stuff into my own trading and investing called "The Art Of Contrary Thinking" by Humphrey B. Neill some time ago. A good read.

The hard thing about looking and using this sentiment criteria is actually having the nerve to take a trade against what the crowd is saying/thinking. I feel an uncertainty when doing this. However if you have a feeling of "what the hell am I doing, this is illogical??" then you probably have more chance of being on a winner.  They say that the obvious trades are usually the ones that go wrong!!

Cheers


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## Pommiegranite (28 June 2007)

wavepicker said:


> The hard thing about looking and using this sentiment criteria is actually having the nerve to take a trade against what the crowd is saying/thinking. I feel an uncertainty when doing this. However if you have a feeling of "what the hell am I doing, this is illogical??" then you probably have more chance of being on a winner. They say that the obvious trades are usually the ones that go wrong!!
> 
> Cheers




I couldn't agree more about going against the market.

I had only just heard of the saying 'buy on the sound of gunfire' , and so I did a few months before Iraq was invaded (the ftse 100 was around 60% of its current value).

It was quite a profitable move for me, but not nearly as much as if I'd stayed in the market for longer than 1 year.

Now I like to stay 50% in cash, so that I can 'top up' at various point on the way down.


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## reece55 (28 June 2007)

theasxgorilla said:


> I'm (almost) fully invested...so I'm waiting for something substantial to tell me I should be pulling my money out!




Hey ASX......

Same goes the other way round as you have indicated, for longer term positions (and I now you have a few per your posts), you don't just bail out at the first sign of down movement. I was referring to swing trades specifically, which is what I focus much of my analysis on...... TradeIT mentioned the fact that until we break below 6180 or so, then instead of a double top, we have an aggressive bottom. But if your a short term trader, you want the rest of the market to flesh it out for you, cause otherwise you are just gambling. I also I agree with Waves in saying that the most obvious moves are usually fakeouts, so whilst I still believe that momentum appears down and I think the logical move is down to 6100, if it shifts up and cathes the shorts in, I would be happy to collect some$$$!!

What most people haven't factored in is just the view that we might meander sideways for a while, with sector switches. This is my preferred view. They say that markets are only trending approximately 20% of the time - we have had a period of strong trending markets, we could just trade sideways whilst we digest our gains before moving up again.....

No matter what the short term view, in my opinion, the ASX is still in a bull trend - the parabolic rise is just on hold for a while!

Cheers


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## bean (28 June 2007)

China seems to have slipped of the radar.
Yet it appears as thought it could collapse at any stage.

Larger one day fall than it had in February could be on the cards
I think it bounce from its 50 day moving average the other day.
It may have went through it today?

Gold having a short countertrend rally for another two or three days?

US markets are not having anymore than three days in a row down.
Crash Protection Team in action
They try and move it up on the third day if possible.

Not very stable markets world wide


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## reece55 (28 June 2007)

bean said:


> China seems to have slipped of the radar.
> Yet it appears as thought it could collapse at any stage.
> 
> Larger one day fall than it had in February could be on the cards
> ...




Bean - our resident bear!!!

Now, US looks like it has recovered nicely last night, with the S&P 500 taking out the prior day open. The NASDAQ still looks on fire to me, with the SMH looking to establish new highs. Crash protection team or not, I don't mind making money from it!!!!

As for China, I think their market is irrelevant now - both the US and AUS shook off there last move down and I think everyone agrees that their economy is still going to buy our commods, but their stock market is overvalued. So, i've said it once and I'll say it again - China will no longer affect our markets.....

Cheers


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## tech/a (28 June 2007)

Found one!!

One of the "Crash protection team!!"


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## theasxgorilla (28 June 2007)

Trade_It said:


> o ok got u ASX know I feel like a dill,
> 
> well yeh next time please note that down! I am getting slower in my old age!




Haha, tell me about it!

I just thought it was a good poke at what everyone seems to be saying these days...the old saying, "buy low, sell high" has been replaced by, "I'm buying the dips"...cos we all know, there haven't been any real lows to speak of!

(yes, I know, no entirely true...but I'm refering to those lows where the funny-mentalists come in and buy all their companies for less money than the business has in the bank)!


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## >Apocalypto< (28 June 2007)

tech/a said:


> Found one!!
> 
> One of the "Crash protection team!!"





THAT WAS A CLASSIC!    

Tech I was laughing my head off when i saw that after reading bean's post!

I was imagining that fella and his mates briskly walking up Wall st in there suits and straight into the action buying every thing in site to the cheers of all the st locals!

Once again you nearly made me fall off my chair with laughter!

I think I found some more members!


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## wayneL (28 June 2007)

Get it right fellas!

It's the PLUNGE Protection Team or PPT.


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## theasxgorilla (29 June 2007)

And what a great job those PPT boys and girls are doing...up a quarter percent on the S&P500 already.


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## wayneL (29 June 2007)

theasxgorilla said:


> And what a great job those PPT boys and girls are doing...up a quarter percent on the S&P500 already.



I think the dip buyers are doing their job for them.


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## bean (29 June 2007)

theasxgorilla said:


> And what a great job those PPT boys and girls are doing...up a quarter percent on the S&P500 already.




They did there job yesterday...They had to do it yesterday hoping it would stay up today


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## bean (29 June 2007)

wayneL said:


> I think the dip buyers are doing their job for them.




Well the dip buyers sure did move it today


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## tech/a (29 June 2007)

If you cant explain or understand something.

*Just invent something that fits!*


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## wayneL (29 June 2007)

tech/a said:


> If you cant explain or understand something.
> 
> *Just invent something that fits!*



Financial reporting in a nutshell.LOL

That's all BubbleVision does all day


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## Damuzzdu (29 June 2007)

tech/a said:


> If you cant explain or understand something.
> 
> *Just invent something that fits!*




Geez Tech, u always get it right on......PMSL!!! 

The PPT are really working hard at present to stop it going lower. You would wonder how much more ammo they have got left. I suspect quite a bit. 

Cheers
Muzz


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## zuluwarrior08 (29 June 2007)

LMAO man that crash protection team is some of the funniest stuff ive seen in a while. Glad the fed left rates at 5.25. 

I like to "fade the open" on the XJO but with huge volatility this week its kicked me up the bum. Looks like we'll open slightly higher today with SPI futures slightly up, but an intraday dip b/n 10:30-11:30 back to open levels looks a slight short for me.

they say that you've got to be in it to win it, and its been hard to remove emotion, greed and fear, for me this week. 

PS reece very nice blog


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## Buffettology (29 June 2007)

I wouldnt call this a correction, but if it is, trading my safe stocks is getting me by quiet nicely.  I am making a killing with this volatility.

Just lately:

Buy, JST 3.89 now 4.40.
Buy, SDG 3.65 sell 4.00
Buy, TOL 13.00 I think it was, sold 14.00
Buy, BKL 20.00 now 21.00 or might have closed lower.
Buy, EQN 3.70 now around 3.90
Buy, BXB 11.70 now over 12.00

All mine are going totally against the market, just buying safe companies at the right time.  Other than EQN which is my long-term spec buy.

Too bad I missed out on WTF (bought more JUST instead), but there is still room for this one.  

I have grown my portfolio by over 10% in the last month, in a market which has moved sideways.


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## stoxclimber (7 July 2007)

Sorry, usual bears, but no 4 week correction, or short term bearish..onwards to 6400 we go! 

Maybe next time..October 2007 is not far away!


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## gfresh (7 July 2007)

Looks like it.. Friday ASX was less positive than it may have been with the nice rise in the Dow thursday night. The 6400 resistance level is I think maybe at the moment a bit of psychological one with concern about the next 12-18 months... but i think on the whole at the moment there is more positive news than bad. 

US Friday time was a small positive movement, and looks like 13600 may be forming as a support level there?? Or just a rest for the the wave back down again??

A small push up there early next week may give rise to the formation of a support level at 6400 for the XAO too.  

It seems like any gain in the Dow is ignored, and any drop in the Dow gives us a bit of a kick down. My thoughts anyhow. 

It's almost a mirror at the moment between dow and xao.. the following two show this.. note arrows are no indication of extent of move, just the direction.


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## steven1234 (7 July 2007)

What i find interesting is that many are expecting a large correction sometime later this year.  Some have even gone as far as selling their holdings and shifting the money into savings accounts ready to pounce when the market corrects.  What i don't understand is that if this was going to be the case, why are the so called professional investors and private equity holders launching takeovers and making other acquisitions at this stage of the market?

I believe that the simple fact that there are so many aquisitions taking place is evidence that we are in a bull market and it is not going bear for a long time yet.  Had such confidence not existed many would wait for a longer term correction or marker collapse before launching any takeover bid.


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## gfresh (11 July 2007)

Aren't wild takeovers the first sign of the bubble before a big correction?

up, and back down we go... good old US too jittery..


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## Uncle Festivus (11 July 2007)

steven1234 said:


> What i find interesting is that many are expecting a large correction sometime later this year. Some have even gone as far as selling their holdings and shifting the money into savings accounts ready to pounce when the market corrects. What i don't understand is that if this was going to be the case, why are the so called professional investors and private equity holders launching takeovers and making other acquisitions at this stage of the market?
> 
> I believe that the simple fact that there are so many aquisitions taking place is evidence that we are in a bull market and it is not going bear for a long time yet. Had such confidence not existed many would wait for a longer term correction or marker collapse before launching any takeover bid.




Irrational exhuberance is a sign of a top, more so with private equity buy-outs & takeovers, who's focus is mostly short term gain. Only this time some will be left without a chair when the music stops. They are professional only in that they can see opportunities to make short term money with someone elses money, so they have little to loose themselves. Good work if you can get it.

Tripple top needs to be confirmed but these types of market jitters will feed on themselves, not to mention worsening fundamentals eg US real estate & derivatves, which will now have to be valued on the big companies books at huge losses. Even S&P now admits a lot of these property related derivatives are crap.


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## wayneL (11 July 2007)

The USD is taking it where it hurts too.

http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601080&sid=a8u82J6kK_cA&refer=asia



> Dollar Falls to Record Against Euro on Housing Slowdown Concern
> 
> By Bo Nielsen and Ye Xie
> Enlarge Image
> ...


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## Lachlan6 (13 July 2007)

Overnight the surge to new highs in the DJIA is suggestive of a new strong run in the index. The consolidation pattern lasted from the start of June so there might be a few investors champing at the bit to jump on board. Only real uncertainty at this stage is the big negative divergence in the MACD giving a cautionary signal at this stage. However there is no denying the underlying strength of last night's move, especially the huge volume supporting it.

A projection of the first target from the range gives us a figure (100% of the range) of 14,140.


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## gfresh (13 July 2007)

definitely looks like the best chance of a breakout since Mid-May.. As long as positive profit reports are coming out over the next few days over there, it may keep the bears at bay. 

Chances of a run up to the election over there are also probable. So many want to see the back of Bush it will be a market mover imo.


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## vishalt (13 July 2007)

am, AM I MISSING SOMETHING?

did the fund managers and private equity sleep in today? why is our market so weak?


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## zuluwarrior08 (16 July 2007)

Will be very interested to see how the US goes tonight. A couple of record days thurs/fri, and with the asian markets hovering around their records today..... 

Im not so sure how the whole sub-prime rout will show its ugly head either?
Will the investment banks reveal the extent of damage in their yearly reports? Either way, I think tonight may keep the bulls chugging along nicely just holding back the nervous whatifs, or if it cant keep the record run going and it loses 1-2%, I think our market tomorrow will head for a nice dive.

What does everyone else think?

Thoughts on the housing crisis? Subprime woes? Record earnings? Both here and the US....

Just a newbie trying to make sense of this wonderfully exciting and challenging economic times. Help to educate me.


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## wayneL (16 July 2007)

zuluwarrior08 said:


> Will be very interested to see how the US goes tonight. A couple of record days thurs/fri, and with the asian markets hovering around their records today.....
> 
> Im not so sure how the whole sub-prime rout will show its ugly head either?
> Will the investment banks reveal the extent of damage in their yearly reports? Either way, I think tonight may keep the bulls chugging along nicely just holding back the nervous whatifs, or if it cant keep the record run going and it loses 1-2%, I think our market tomorrow will head for a nice dive.
> ...



The US market is having a bout of cognitive dissonance at the moment.

The say that the SM is a discounting mechanism... and that's true, it is discounting all the negatives. Watch any segment including Peter Schiff on BubbleVision and you'll see what I mean.


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## zuluwarrior08 (16 July 2007)

Im sorry to be such a newbie...

are you able to explain/describe what cognitive dissonance is in this context?

SM?


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## wayneL (16 July 2007)

zuluwarrior08 said:


> Im sorry to be such a newbie...
> 
> are you able to explain/describe what cognitive dissonance is in this context?
> 
> SM?



Main Entry: cognitive dissonance
Function: noun
: psychological conflict resulting from simultaneously held incongruous beliefs and attitudes (as a fondness for smoking and a belief that it is harmful)

My use of the term is more metaphorical than medically accurate.

The market acknowledges the sub-prime and dollar apocalypse, trade deficit, credit bubble etc as negatives, yet is extremely bullish.

The psychological conflict is evident in the Bobbleheads on Bubblevision. Their argument (when faced with these negatives) is couched in terms of derision, ridicule and satire, rather than logic, fact and mathematics. In these arguments, and in the intensity of them, fear is evident. A truly comfortable bull (though perhaps cognitively biased) would have a more reasoned, less desperate argument.


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## zuluwarrior08 (16 July 2007)

I find this psychological conflict fascinating. Its incredible how mass groups can behave in such a way, yet hold completely conflicting beliefs about things. Is this how corrections start? 

A tiny push in the negative direction and the whole group rushes over to that side of the see-saw... Perhaps this touches on recent volatility.

S&P futures up 2 pts at the moment.


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