# Buy on Friday, sell on Monday



## nioka (10 October 2008)

Todays market may offer an opportunity for short term traders. Often I note that there is a sell off on Friday when there is a possibility of a bad Friday around the world. Our market seems to then have a good Monday of Tuesday. May be an opportunity but be carefull and definitely DYOR.


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## Trembling Hand (10 October 2008)

If this isn't ramping at the most dangerous time of the last 20 years I have no friggin idea what is.


This should be deleted for the shear stupidity of the Financial Advice it is slyly giving.


DANGEROUS!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!


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## chops_a_must (10 October 2008)

Yep.

Unethical of the highest order.


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## Family_Guy (10 October 2008)

I actually agree with Nokia. The last two weeks have seen me only buy on Fridays and out on Mondays. Short, quick profits, but i think it wont work this time around. None the less, i took a swim this morning. I figure it will work, or i'll be signing for my supper for the next 6 months.


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## skyQuake (10 October 2008)

A modification of Nokia's strategy: Sell on Mon, Tues, Wed, Thurs, but not Fri


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## nioka (10 October 2008)

Trembling Hand said:


> If this isn't ramping at the most dangerous time of the last 20 years I have no friggin idea what is.
> 
> 
> This should be deleted for the shear stupidity of the Financial Advice it is slyly giving.
> ...





I've put my money where my mouth is. Can't do more than that. I haven't bought any thing that I'm not prepared to hold though.


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## Sunburnt Land (10 October 2008)

I've been buying up big this week. Hadn't touched a stock for 3-4 years previously. Had been waiting for a capitulation all this time. It was tough sitting out during the boom, but now I'm picking up stocks at pre-boom prices. I'm not a trader, medium to long term is my time frame.

Taking a paper hit on a blue chip sits fine with me. Being down 10-15% on paper from buying in now is a lot better than being 50+% down from buying in 2-3 years ago like I'm sure many people are right now.


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## GreatPig (10 October 2008)

Sunburnt Land said:


> Being down 10-15% on paper from buying in now is a lot better than being 50+% down from buying in 2-3 years ago like I'm sure many people are right now.



What if it drops another 50% from here?

GP


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## Sunburnt Land (10 October 2008)

GreatPig said:


> What if it drops another 50% from here?
> 
> GP




I won't sell. I'll top up my holdings.

There are a million "what ifs" at the moment. And this tranlates into the fear and panic that is everywhere. The world is not going to end.

Funny how people buy up during the boom, but won't buy when those very same assets a half or quarter the price. The fundamentals haven't changed in many of the companies I've bought into.

Share prices aren't a value of what a company is worth now. They reflect the future value of a company. And I'm looking past the current financial crisis when valuing these companies.


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## It's Snake Pliskin (12 October 2008)

nioka said:


> Todays market may offer an opportunity for short term traders. Often I note that there is a sell off on Friday when there is a possibility of a bad Friday around the world. Our market seems to then have a good Monday of Tuesday. May be an opportunity but be carefull and definitely DYOR.




This is based on a subjective GUESS.

I agree it is dangerous to sprout this stuff. And, it is better to be full of care.:kebab


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## agro (12 October 2008)

Sunburnt Land said:


> I won't sell. I'll top up my holdings.
> 
> There are a million "what ifs" at the moment. And this tranlates into the fear and panic that is everywhere. The world is not going to end.
> 
> ...




you will make a mint, look at Buffett buying GE recently..

if i had cash i would be pouring it into the market but i am holding for the time being

so many bargains though


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## Pommiegranite (12 October 2008)

I bought substantially on Friday. Okay..not quite Buffetesque, but I believe I bought at a level where the downside from here will be minimal and quickly recoverable. Saying that, I am still mostly in cash!


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## nioka (12 October 2008)

It's Snake Pliskin said:


> This is based on a subjective GUESS.
> 
> I agree it is dangerous to sprout this stuff. And, it is better to be full of care.:kebab




Let's call it an educated guess. It is only dangerous for someone who can't afford to take the risk.


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## Trembling Hand (12 October 2008)

Its a DUMB trade when looking at risk vs Reward. 

Its a Dumb Trade looking At it in terms of favourable Volatility.

Its a dumb trade looking at it in terms of trend.

Trend; we are, if the bottom callers haven't noticed, in a HUGE down trend,

Volatility; Moves have become on occasion simply staggering. More damage can be done in a day at the moment than a week of the 02- 07 bull run. Therefore all positions need to be small or you are simply a fool playing Russian Roulette.

R:R; Many stock were down 10%, some much more. Trying to figure out what would be possible for Monday during Friday you would have to say that there was a chance that they could do the same on the down side Monday but I'm pretty sure no one would think they were going to recover that much of a drop in 1 day. So you are risking 1 to make best case 1 but probably 0.5.

I'm not adverse to quick against the crowd trades but this one would have to be made with such a small % of capital for no better than 1:1 even with strict "Buy on Friday, sell on Monday" its still a bad trade.


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## Green08 (12 October 2008)

I was under the impression that Joe said to back up claims with some clear evidence or it could concur as ramping.


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## jeffish (12 October 2008)

Buying shares is buying into a company. If you look at the fundamentals of a company and want to be part of it why not buy shares in it? ASX Shares in all sectors are at bargain basement prices. Ask yourself, why is Warren Buffet buying? I maxed out my SMSF account Friday! Bring on Monday!


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## prawn_86 (12 October 2008)

jeffish said:


> Ask yourself, why is Warren Buffet buying?




Possibly because he is good friends with the CEO or MD or whatever. Also the fact that he got offered an awesome options package that last for about 10 years.

I would consider buying under the terms he was offered


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## apra143 (12 October 2008)

jeffish said:


> Ask yourself, why is Warren Buffet buying?




I'd rather ask why Buffet buying into a crashing market makes headlines?


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## nioka (13 October 2008)

Trembling Hand said:


> Its a DUMB trade when looking at risk vs Reward.
> 
> Its a Dumb Trade looking At it in terms of favourable Volatility.
> 
> ...




Not such a dumb suggestion after all. I've done very well out of it. To me it has turned out to be exactly as I expected.


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## Ageo (13 October 2008)

nioka said:


> Not such a dumb suggestion after all. I've done very well out of it. To me it has turned out to be exactly as I expected.




Nice call Noika, quick question: how often do you look at the friday buy, sell monday strategy (if you call it that)? after heavy selling earlier in the weeks? or every friday? hehe


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## marcadrian (13 October 2008)

not a bad call nioka. 5% move in 20 minutes - are you going to dump out now in case the market pulls back this afternoon?


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## Trembling Hand (13 October 2008)

My points about R:R are vindicated by the size of the rise.

But yep well done your green today.


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## chops_a_must (13 October 2008)

On what? ADI?


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## paulchow2k (13 October 2008)

It might be a great suggestion but I guess it's a try to catch a falling knife situation. Your buy on a particular day and sell on a particular date theory, is that based on any statistics for the time of month of the year or just because you saw the market oversold? Yes congrates on picking the right direction today but what is your expectancy over a longer period based on this system?

regards

Paul



nioka said:


> Not such a dumb suggestion after all. I've done very well out of it. To me it has turned out to be exactly as I expected.


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## nioka (13 October 2008)

paulchow2k said:


> It might be a great suggestion but I guess it's a try to catch a falling knife situation. Your buy on a particular day and sell on a particular date theory, is that based on any statistics for the time of month of the year or just because you saw the market oversold? Yes congrates on picking the right direction today but what is your expectancy over a longer period based on this system?
> 
> regards
> 
> Paul




 In the past I have noticed that if Friday is a bad day then the following Monday is usually a good one. I then look for stocks I think were oversold, have good fundamentals and put in a few buy orders at a low price. 3pm to 4PM is a good time to buy on a Friday. I then put in sell orders to make better than 5% for the Monday. If I havent sold by midday then I decide whether to hold or reduce my sell price. It works on most occasions.


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## acedrum (13 October 2008)

Nioka, what time did you buy on Friday?
If you got in long at 4.25pm you would have had to endure a range of over 200 points down and only around 60 up over the weekend.
How did you sleep??


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## nioka (13 October 2008)

acedrum said:


> Nioka, what time did you buy on Friday?
> If you got in long at 4.25pm you would have had to endure a range of over 200 points down and only around 60 up over the weekend.
> How did you sleep??




Most orders went in around midday. Always sleep OK. I only use money that I can afford to lose a little. Didn't count on losing any, expected to make about 3% probably the result is double that. I do this on a regular basis, about once a month. Bull or bear the same thing seems to happen. Often my orders to buy dont get filled because I try for bargains.I think by Friday there are more willing sellers than most days and Monday there are more willing buyers.


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## julius (13 October 2008)

nioka said:


> Most orders went in around midday. Always sleep OK. I only use money that I can afford to lose a little. Didn't count on losing any, expected to make about 3% probably the result is double that. I do this on a regular basis, about once a month. Bull or bear the same thing seems to happen. Often my orders to buy dont get filled because I try for bargains.I think by Friday there are more willing sellers than most days and Monday there are more willing buyers.




Smells a bit like technical analysis to me...


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## nioka (13 October 2008)

julius said:


> Smells a bit like technical analysis to me...




Except for the fact that all my buys are done on a fundamental analysis basis. I only buy when I feel they are oversold on the day.


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## jeffish (13 October 2008)

13/10/08 Re: Buy on Friday, sell on Monday
I hate to say it but I told you so.
Buy into a company with strong fundamentals and you are a trader.
Buy into a MARKET and you buy into speculation and mass hysteria
At least Warren Buffet has the balls to put his money where his mouth is
We needed confidence in the market worldwide
Who would you listen to WB or George Bush?
At least Kevin Rudd has the balls and brains to bring confiedence to our market by insuring our savingssand the Opposition has the common sense to support him.
I know this may sound simplistic.
People have told me that the market feeds on greed and fear
In my short 30 months of trading I never saw an example of the mass hysteria of last week.
How about the 1500 points trading range on the Dow on Friday 10/10???!!!

Jeffish


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## paulchow2k (13 October 2008)

Fare enough. In this market environment, I guess you can look for oversold [Volume is Important] stock with good funny-mentals for a quick trade. Thanks for the expansion, it now makes more sense what you are saying.

paul 



nioka said:


> In the past I have noticed that if Friday is a bad day then the following Monday is usually a good one. I then look for stocks I think were oversold, have good fundamentals and put in a few buy orders at a low price. 3pm to 4PM is a good time to buy on a Friday. I then put in sell orders to make better than 5% for the Monday. If I havent sold by midday then I decide whether to hold or reduce my sell price. It works on most occasions.


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## awg (13 October 2008)

Trembling Hand said:


> If this isn't ramping at the most dangerous time of the last 20 years I have no friggin idea what is.
> 
> 
> This should be deleted for the shear stupidity of the Financial Advice it is slyly giving.
> ...





I have the utmost respect for TH posting. ( and chops)
His opinions are amongst the most accurate on ASF

But i am confused.

I thought ramping was the practice of saying good or bad things about a particular stock, without sufficient evidence, with a view to encouraging others to buy or sell, then attemting to use that movement for ones own profit.

I cant see that Nioka has done this, he has put forward his own general strategy, that irrespective of the correctness or possible danger, does not seem to be in any way construed to personally profit at the expense of others..he is to small?...unless his trades are in the millions?

I mean absolutely no offence to anyone by making these remarks, and would be most pleased if someone could set me straight on this


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## seasprite (13 October 2008)

nioka said:


> Todays market may offer an opportunity for short term traders. Often I note that there is a sell off on Friday when there is a possibility of a bad Friday around the world. Our market seems to then have a good Monday of Tuesday. May be an opportunity but be carefull and definitely DYOR.




what's your theory on Friday 13th (Black Friday).


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## nioka (13 October 2008)

seasprite said:


> what's your theory on Friday 13th (Black Friday).



Wouldn't make any difference to me.

ASF is a forum for the interchange of ideas and information. It is a very good one and Joe is to be congratulated. Nobody contributing has a mortgage on ideas and everyone should be able to have their point of view.  

Any information that I give is based on my experience and my beliefs. I don't trade in millions but I do trade and invest enough to be comfortable in retirement. I am not right all the time. Anyone that has never made a mistake has never done anything. 

I like to think outside the square. I hope I can make a usefull contribution although I do get (and accept) plenty of flack at times.


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## seasprite (13 October 2008)

nioka said:


> Wouldn't make any difference to me.
> 
> ASF is a forum for the interchange of ideas and information. It is a very good one and Joe is to be congratulated. Nobody contributing has a mortgage on ideas and everyone should be able to have their point of view.
> 
> ...




I actually thought your theory was a good one , especially today , however I don't know what you are bleating on about at the moment . I am old school , if I ask a question , I am after an answer , I was by no means taking the piss. If it works , good on ya but Generation Y new age sensitive comments don't work for me.


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## It's Snake Pliskin (13 October 2008)

seasprite said:


> I actually thought your theory was a good one , especially today , however I don't know what you are bleating on about at the moment . I am old school , if I ask a question , I am after an answer , I was by no means taking the piss. If it works , good on ya but Generation Y new age sensitive comments don't work for me.




Funny but Nioka is not a Gen Y!
And direct answers are better than avoidance. I agree here with you seasprite.


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## It's Snake Pliskin (13 October 2008)

nioka said:


> Wouldn't make any difference to me.
> 
> ASF is a forum for the interchange of ideas and information. It is a very good one and Joe is to be congratulated. Nobody contributing has a mortgage on ideas and everyone should be able to have their point of view.
> 
> ...




Hello Nioka,

Based on the availability of hindsite you have done well. 

Your comment at the bottom which is italicised, bolded and in red, gives me some reason to have a fit of cognitive dissonance. In another thread today you said you are biased. Isn't this representative of "I don't know what I stand for?"

Have you got any statisitics for the buy on Friday sell on Monday strategy of yours?

Cheers..


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## Family_Guy (14 October 2008)

Noika, nice one. I had mentioned in the 4th post of this thread that i do the same thing and agreed with you. Where are the guys who bagged you?
I went all in Friday, and nearly all out Monday. And that was not the first time either. I agree with your theory because its been working for me. All those who called it ramping can sit in the corner, no ramping there at all. Not one stock was mentioned......i dont think.


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## Family_Guy (14 October 2008)

It's Snake Pliskin said:


> Hello Nioka,
> 
> Have you got any statisitics for the buy on Friday sell on Monday strategy of yours?
> 
> Cheers..




Do you have charts? It's all there. Go and have a look. If you like i can spit out a detailed report of my last three or 4 weeks of friday/monday trades.


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## cordelia (15 October 2008)

well I bought FMG on Friday at the close   2.68 with a very tight stop...I could've sold on Monday but averaged up at 2.80.....Yesterday I adjusted my stop to 3.70...Shortly after the open today I tried to sell them at 4.15.....I was looking at a $10000 profit or thereabouts.....But because of stupid Westpac I couldn't place the order..I tried to phone through the order but couldn't get through...I just sat there watching the price drop until my stop was triggered........Well I am glad I moved my stop up because I still made a good profit...but it was very frustrating


So yes buy on Friday sell on Monday worked for me because I took a small position first up and then added to it......But I calculated how much I was prepared to risk first and as soon as the position was filled put on a stop loss...

If you try and trade in this market without first calculating risk and using stops you could lose a lot of money...


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## Glen48 (15 October 2008)

I notice prices start to go up about 11 am to 12- 12.30 pm and down from there how ever to get in on time is the problem one chart lasted  3 seconds before going down again.


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## chops_a_must (16 October 2008)

cordelia said:


> So yes buy on Friday sell on Monday worked for me because I took a small position first up and then added to it......But I calculated how much I was prepared to risk first and as soon as the position was filled put on a stop loss...
> 
> If you try and trade in this market without first calculating risk and using stops you could lose a lot of money...



The problem with this strategy bud, is that you don't get a choice about the risk management when holding overnight in this situation.

You could have had a market open down 30+% and your stop would have meant 1 10th of **** all.

Which was TH's point. From an R/R perspective, it was abysmal.


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## It's Snake Pliskin (16 October 2008)

cordelia said:


> well I bought FMG on Friday at the close   2.68 with a very tight stop...I could've sold on Monday but averaged up at 2.80.....Yesterday I adjusted my stop to 3.70...Shortly after the open today I tried to sell them at 4.15.....I was looking at a $10000 profit or thereabouts.....But because of stupid Westpac I couldn't place the order..I tried to phone through the order but couldn't get through...I just sat there watching the price drop until my stop was triggered........Well I am glad I moved my stop up because I still made a good profit...but it was very frustrating
> 
> 
> So yes buy on Friday sell on Monday worked for me because I took a small position first up and then added to it......But I calculated how much I was prepared to risk first and as soon as the position was filled put on a stop loss...
> ...




Cordelia,

What was the problem with your broker? Server outage or overload?

It's pretty bad when people cannot trade due to broker problems.


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## cordelia (16 October 2008)

It's Snake Pliskin said:


> Cordelia,
> 
> What was the problem with your broker? Server outage or overload?
> 
> It's pretty bad when people cannot trade due to broker problems.




Westpac Broking was out for about 2hrs yesterday.....shortly after open .....The whole iress interface froze up so you could place orders....you could not log into the homepage let alone trader pro....Luckily I had all my stops up to date......The phone lines were jammed with people trying to get through and place orders....


Westpac is hopeless...whenever you place an "at market" order it goes to "pending" or "reviewed" before beinging assigned open status..sometimes for 5 mins...imagine being a scalper with that sort of time lag...

Any recommendations for a good alternative broker...


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## gav (16 October 2008)

cordelia said:


> Westpac Broking was out for about 2hrs yesterday.....shortly after open .....The whole iress interface froze up so you could place orders....you could not log into the homepage let alone trader pro....Luckily I had all my stops up to date......The phone lines were jammed with people trying to get through and place orders....
> 
> 
> Westpac is hopeless...whenever you place an "at market" order it goes to "pending" or "reviewed" before beinging assigned open status..sometimes for 5 mins...imagine being a scalper with that sort of time lag...
> ...




I had similar problems with Commsec on Tuesday morning...


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## cordelia (16 October 2008)

gav said:


> I had similar problems with Commsec on Tuesday morning...




I was considering using Comsec......I have heard Interactive Brokers are pretty good ...I might look into changing to them.....I didn't lose any capital yesterday but I lost a lot of profit.....Well I certainly learnt a lesson from it though..have a profit trigger in place as well as a stop....


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## skc (16 October 2008)

Trembling Hand said:


> My points about R:R are vindicated by the size of the rise.
> 
> But yep well done your green today.




Just want to share an analogy from a finance professor: Suppose someone offers you a bet by tossing a coin. Heads you win and you get $10. Tails you lose but you lose $20. You entered the bet, the head comes up and you won $10... Moral of the story - just because you had a positive outcome doesn't alter the fact that entering the bet was a bad decision.

Having said that, I am also not suggesting that the Buy Friday / Sell Monday is a bad strategy - just need the stats to prove it. Perhaps working with guaranteed stops from some CFD providers would further reduce the risk of massive gapping on the down side.


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## Bin57again (16 October 2008)

Nokia
I think the only way out of this one is to provide some stats. Otherwise, you're a gambler.
Bin


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## pistol72 (16 October 2008)

A positive announcement late in the day(3.30+) to help with the probability of a rise Monday.
P


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## Aussiejeff (16 October 2008)

Given the current state of the markets, maybe the thread should be re-named "Sell Everyday".


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## nioka (16 October 2008)

Bin57again said:


> Nokia
> I think the only way out of this one is to provide some stats. Otherwise, you're a gambler.
> Bin




 Do your own research.

I've had enough s*** from certain ASFers and will be making no more contributions to this or other threads in the immediate future.


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## zolow (16 October 2008)

Nioka I like your theory, 

I will be watching out for it in future.

cheers,
Z


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## Skip1jz (16 October 2008)

1st post on the forum and some historical data for the last 7 weekends Monday/Friday XAO closing value which may prove/disprove the theory:

M 13th Oct 4141
F 10th Oct 3939
M 6th Oct 4544
F 3rd Oct 4702
M 29th Sep 4839
F 26th Sep 4934
M 22nd Sep 5050
F 19th Sep 4840
M 15th Sep 4875
F 12th Sep 4957
M 8th Sep 5126
F 5th Sep 4949
M 1st Sep 5200
F 29th Aug 5215

So that is three wins three losses and one tie.  But perhaps this data is useless without providing opens, highs and lows...


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## gav (16 October 2008)

Skip1jz said:


> 1st post on the forum and some historical data for the last 7 weekends Monday/Friday XAO closing value which may prove/disprove the theory:
> 
> M 13th Oct 4141
> F 10th Oct 3939
> ...




It would also depend on the company you decide to buy into on Friday arvo.  I remember Nioka stating he buys into good companies that he believes have been oversold, which would increase the chances of making a profit on the Monday (compared to the rest of the market)


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## skyQuake (16 October 2008)

Skip1jz said:


> 1st post on the forum and some historical data for the last 7 weekends Monday/Friday XAO closing value which may prove/disprove the theory:
> 
> M 13th Oct 4141
> F 10th Oct 3939
> ...




Just using those values... Buy Fri sell Mon has done ok..
But have a look at Sell Mon buy Fri : D


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## Naked shorts (16 October 2008)

This thread should be moved to the "Trading Strategies/Systems" section.

I guess it also brings up another topic;  
Is it ok to test a risky system with money you are willing to lose?



For the record, i have also noticed this trend aswell nioka, but I never capitalised on it...


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