# WHC - Whitehaven Coal



## imajica (23 October 2007)

As this stock has risen nearly 200% in approx. 5 months since listing at $1 in the IPO (currently $2.91) - I thought it would be appropriate to start a thread.


(canyon)They have a 100% owned open cut coal mine currrently in production.

(Tarrawonga) A 70% interest in this one - and is also producing

(Werris Creek) A 40% interest in this one - and is also producing

(Belmont) production beginnning in 2008 (100% owned)

two other proposed mine sites Narrabri North and Sunnyside are currently undergoing an environmental assessment.


A growth story that has already attracted some interest and will continue to do so as it expands its operations.

as always DYOR

here is a rather bullish chart


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## michael_selway (23 October 2007)

*Re: Whitehaven Coal Limited - WHC*



imajica said:


> As this stock has risen nearly 200% in approx. 5 months since listing at $1 in the IPO (currently $2.91) - I thought it would be appropriate to start a thread.
> 
> 
> (canyon)They have a 100% owned open cut coal mine currrently in production.
> ...




Hi yes this one will be a monster, indefinitely a takover target now

*Earnings and Dividends Forecast (cents per share) 
2007 2008 2009 2010 
EPS 7.5 6.2 32.3 60.0 
DPS 0.0 3.0 16.0 30.0 *

PS: Keep an eye on coal stocsk in general: *CEY, FLX, GCL, MCC, (RSP-NHC), WHC, AQA, COK...*


thx

MS


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## imajica (24 October 2007)

a quick summary of what these guys are up to!



Profile - Whitehaven Coal Limited


 BUSINESS SUMMARY   
Whitehaven Coal Limited (WHC) is a coal mining company with the projects located in the Gunnedah Region of New South Wales. Company operates two open cut mines near Boggabri and is a major shareholder of the Werris Creek mine north of Quirindi. WHC is actively seeking to develop several other small mines in the region and a major longwall mine south of Narrabri. Whitehaven also operates the Coal Handling and Preparation Plant (CHPP) and rail loader at Gunnedah.

Canyon:
The open cut mine is located 15 km east of Boggabri. Annual production is up to 1Mt. The mining method is truck and excavator. Raw coal is trucked 30 km to Gunnedah for washing at the company's CHPP and then railed to Newcastle for export.

Tarrawonga:
The open cut mine is located 16 km north-east of Boggabri. Mining is by truck and excavator method to produce up to 1.5Mtpa. The mine is operated by Tarrawonga Coal Pty Ltd and is a joint venture between Whitehaven (70%) and Idemitsu (30%).

Werris Creek:
The open cut mine is located 4 kms south of Werris Creek. Whitehaven has a 40% interest in the Werris Creek JV, with Creek Resources holding 60%. Production is at the rate of 1.5Mtpa. The coal is transported directly by rail from Werris Creek to the Port of Newcastle.

Belmont:
The open cut project is located 28 km north of Gunnedah and is due to commence in 2008. Using truck and excavator method mining is proposed at 1.5Mtpa. As at June 2007, an environmental assessment was being prepared.

Narrabri North:
The project is located between Boggabri and Narrabri. An Environmental Assessment is being proposed for Stage 1 of the project. Initial production using continuous miners will be 1.5Mtpa. A rail loop will be constructed for rail transport of coal from the project site to Newcastle for export. Stage 2 plans include the production of an additional 4.5Mtpa from longwall mining.

Sunnyside:
The open cut project site is located 15 km west of Gunnedah and will produce up to 1Mtpa. The coal will be trucked by road to Gunnedah CHPP for washing & loading for transport by rail to the Port of Newcastle. A truck and excavator mining method will be used with auger mine from highwall if feasible


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## imajica (25 October 2007)

just released - company's quarterly report


WHITEHAVEN COAL LIMITED

QUARTERLY REPORT TO 30 SEPTEMBER 2007

HIGHLIGHTS

• Saleable coal production up 57% over the previous corresponding period;
• Coal sales up 90% over the previous corresponding period, including traded coal.



The rapid growth of this company in terms of production and mine site expansion is a testament to good management. This exponential growth will continue as new mines are opened and efficiency is improved at Newcastle's coal shipping terminal


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## michael_selway (25 October 2007)

imajica said:


> just released - company's quarterly report
> 
> 
> WHITEHAVEN COAL LIMITED
> ...




Might get taken over soon I think, at this sort of growth rate

thx

MS

*Earnings and Dividends Forecast (cents per share) 
2007 2008 2009 2010 
EPS 7.5 6.2 32.3 60.0 
DPS 0.0 3.0 16.0 30.0*


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## imajica (26 October 2007)

Their growth seems to be exponential at the moment - huge percentage increases each year in terms of revenue and production - the market will soon catch on and it will no doubt be valued accordingly.

an exciting time for WHC holders


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## phcuk (26 October 2007)

G'morning All,

With all the fine results for WHC, and more to come in the near future would it be wise to xxxxx at the moment or we might be a bit late at the current speed? Anyone have any thoughts on this?


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## michael_selway (29 October 2007)

"Their growth seems to be exponential at the moment - huge percentage increases each year in terms of revenue and production - the market will soon catch on and it will no doubt be valued accordingly.

an exciting time for WHC holders"

Hi I agree

Btw do you know anything about NEC & COK (coal explorers)?

thx

MS


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## imajica (29 October 2007)

I haven't really looked at those two (although I have heard on the grapevine that COK have decent reserves and are negotiating with the Chinese and Koreans) - I generally only invest in producers - will have a thorough look today though!


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## imajica (1 November 2007)

I often find that investing becomes very abstracted and removed from the physical nature of the 'real' world. Here is an image of trucks, busily hauling away tonnes of coal at Whitehaven's 100% owned Canyon open pit mine.


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## imajica (2 November 2007)

Whitehaven surging 5% today after a horror lead from wall street

producers generally hold up better on horror days

what a champion!


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## michael_selway (2 November 2007)

"Whitehaven surging 5% today after a horror lead from wall street

producers generally hold up better on horror days

what a champion!"

Hi Yep

Btw do you own any other of the coal stocks above (in the picture)?

Thanks

MS



> "Hot coal to rally more, but cheaper than in 80s
> Record coal prices have plenty more room to rise in their demand-led rally as the fuel is still cheaper in real terms than in the 1980s, those in the industry say, with costs to be passed on to electricity consumers.
> "We're going back to the prices of the late 1970s/early 1980s in real terms but the difference this time is that demand is surging and we've got a genuine coal shortage," said Jim Lennon, metals and mining analyst at Macquarie Bank.
> 
> ...


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## imajica (5 November 2007)

whitehaven close to previous highs - word is slowly getting around that whitehaven has a solid business model. When all of the hot money leaves FLX, this is where it will go. With the ever increasing demand for coal around the world, those already producing and with means of expansion will surge in the coming months.


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## gdzack (6 November 2007)

WHC is awesome. I put it on my watchlist on 28 August, at that time it was at its lowest price. However for some reason I didn't invest into it. Now I realize I've made a big mistake!
Thank you for sharing those information imajica. I'll keep watching this share.


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## imajica (7 November 2007)

strong buying this morning with very few sellers.

has just hit its all time high of $3.07 

I wouldn't say that its broken out yet but will be watching closely.

news should be just around the corner regarding progress with its other coal mine developments.


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## imajica (15 November 2007)

Highlights from Presentation

Planned ~4-fold increase in production over the next 4 years


− Sunnyside and Belmont expected to commence production in Q3 CY 2008.
− Stage 1 Narrabri North start-up expected in late 2008, ramping up to produce ~6 Mtpa from 2011
 Potential for sustained production rates at WMP by accessing additional regional resources
 Narrabri South development will piggyback on Narrabri North infrastructure
 Whitehaven will looking for appropriate project and corporate acquisition opportunities


A 4 fold increase in production over the next four years is massive growth!


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## juw177 (15 November 2007)

Ok, I will ramp this stock with you imajica since I have been onboard for a few weeks now. It looks like someone is trying to keep the "last price" down today. Whenever someone bought some from the $2.90 seller, somebody will sell a parcel of 100 to the $2.81 buyer.


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## imajica (20 November 2007)

WHITEHAVEN COAL LIMITED (ASX:WHC) PROJECT APPROVAL FOR NARRABRI NORTH COAL PROJECT 

Whitehaven Coal is pleased to advise that it has today received Project Approval 
for Stage 1 of the Narrabri North Coal Project from the NSW Minister for Planning, 
The Hon Frank Sartor MP. 

The Narrabri North Project covers approximately half of Whitehaven's Narrabri coal 
tenement, which is located some 20 kilometres south of the town of Narrabri in the 
North West of NSW. 

Exploration of Whitehaven's Narrabri coal tenement has so far generated total coal 
resources of some 438 million tonnes (Mt), of which the Narrabri North area 
contains approximately 230 Mt. 

Construction of the Narrabri North Project will commence in early 2008, with 
exploration of the Narrabri South area to continue. 

Managing Director, Keith Ross said that approval of the Narrabri North 
development is a major milestone for Whitehaven Coal, as the Narrabri area is the 
cornerstone of Whitehaven Coal's expansion plans. 

More detailed information on the Narrabri Project, including coal resources and 
reserves is contained in the attached extract from Whitehaven Coal's recent 
investor presentation.




The growth of this company is impressive, 438 million tonnes of coal!!!! even at 10 million tonnes a year that's over a 40 year mine life!

Let's not forget about their other numerous mines that are currently producing and have huge mine lives as well.

Great news for WHC holders!


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## happytown (20 November 2007)

this possible small stormcloud on the horizon, from today's smh



> Coalminers at mercy of railway owners
> 
> THE fate of several smaller coal producers in the Hunter Valley could hinge on the rail operator Pacific National.
> 
> ...





http://business.smh.com.au/coalminers-at-mercy-of-railway-owners/20071119-1bfh.html

cheers


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## michael_selway (23 December 2007)

imajica said:


> strong buying this morning with very few sellers.
> 
> has just hit its all time high of $3.07
> 
> ...





Hi just wondering, are u going to participate in the $2.65 per share captial raising?

thx

MS

*Earnings and Dividends Forecast (cents per share) 
2007 2008 2009 2010 
EPS 8.0 31.3 22.4 40.6 
DPS 0.0 6.5 8.8 17.9 *


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## michael_selway (2 January 2008)

Hm does anyone still own this one?

thx

MS

Earnings and Dividends Forecast (cents per share) 
*2007 2008 2009 2010 
EPS 8.0 31.3 22.4 40.6 
DPS 0.0 6.5 8.8 17.9 *


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## gdzack (4 January 2008)

Hi, folks this stock is flying incredibly, still very few sellers. Is it suitable to buy some now?


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## michael_selway (5 January 2008)

gdzack said:


> Hi, folks this stock is flying incredibly, still very few sellers. Is it suitable to buy some now?




I have mentioned this stock so many times, you didnt take any notice? 

thx

MS

*Earnings and Dividends Forecast (cents per share) 
2007 2008 2009 2010 
EPS 8.0 31.3 22.4 40.6 
DPS 0.0 6.5 8.8 17.9 *


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## gdzack (21 January 2008)

Now I can finally wait and see when will this stock reach the price that I can afford to buy


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## michael_selway (28 January 2008)

gdzack said:


> Now I can finally wait and see when will this stock reach the price that I can afford to buy




Yep, this one may bounce up big soon because it has fallen alot last week etc

thx

MS

*Forecast (cents per share) 
2007 2008 2009 2010 
EPS 8.0 32.1 23.8 40.2 
DPS 0.0 7.0 9.8 17.9 *


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## Scallop (11 April 2008)

Does WHC produce any coking coal? Can only find reference to thermal coal on their website.

Regards


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## TheAbyss (19 March 2009)

FIRB Approval received for the takeover by GCL.

Offer is 1 GCL share for every 2.45 WHC shares.

GCL are $4.80 and WHC are $1.55 so a premium to be earned.

GCL - $4.800	/ 2.45 =	$1.959 price per WHC share break even.

Leaves a premium of $1.003 or 64.68% profit at current prices.

Looks good to me.


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## noirua (3 April 2009)

After Gloucester Coal were forced to jump out of the bid equation the true value of WHC may turn out to be much higher, provided a new bidder becomes interested. 
MCC and FLX have started on a recovery track and WHC looks likely to follow on even if more slowly at first.


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## michael_selway (12 May 2009)

noirua said:


> After Gloucester Coal were forced to jump out of the bid equation the true value of WHC may turn out to be much higher, provided a new bidder becomes interested.
> MCC and FLX have started on a recovery track and WHC looks likely to follow on even if more slowly at first.




Yeah not bad!

Earnings and Dividends Forecast (cents per share) 
2008 2009 2010 2011 
EPS 3.6 15.8 13.8 21.4 
DPS 1.7 6.3 7.0 10.0 







thx

MS


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## noirua (25 May 2009)

Whitehaven Coal (WHC) are fairly bounding along on the Gloucester Coal (GLC) bid, which has continued after they dropped the bid for WHC on the Noble Group bid for GLC. They have come up a long way since their low point and should be watched carefully from here.


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## noirua (31 May 2009)

noirua said:


> Whitehaven Coal (WHC) are fairly bounding along on the Gloucester Coal (GLC) bid, which has continued after they dropped the bid for WHC on the Noble Group bid for GLC. They have come up a long way since their low point and should be watched carefully from here.



Remaining very confident about the recovery for Whitehaven Coal (WHC) despite some cutbacks at the Newcastle port during June and July, by the Port Authorities.  Renewed confidence as coal prices recover from low prices, and should be pulled up further on the bullish oil price factor.


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## moses (30 June 2009)

At what level has the Narrabri North development been factored into the WHC equation, aka, what impact will the new mine coming on line have on the SP? I was looking around the mine last week, its one great big construction site, here is a view of the box cut showing the drift belt under construction and I was told coal will be coming out by the end of the year. Holding WHC as a local believer.


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## noirua (18 July 2009)

Double my purchase price in April last are Whitehaven at $3.20, imho are looking a bit toppy, and I've decided to rush for the exit.
With dark thoughts on the oil price going the rounds, I can't see a reason for much to go for from here.
For those who remain, I hope its all a mistake and WHC continue on up - good luck.


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## noirua (24 July 2009)

2009 - 4th Quarter Report for the year ending 30th June 2009: http://www.asx.com.au/asxpdf/20090724/pdf/31jpzm81b591n4.pdf


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## moses (30 July 2009)

In a trading halt to raise cash and a cracking report.

http://www.whitehaven.net.au/pages/index.php but Aussies only.

Institutional placement to raise approximately $176 million

Eligible hareholders in Australia and New Zealand have an opportunity to subscribe for up to $15,000 worth of Whitehaven shares per shareholder


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## jayinoz (17 August 2009)

I cannot find any broker recommendations on the recent offerring to existing stock holders of up to $15000 @ 3.05 per share.

It has really run up exceptionally well in recent months, more so than most of the other coal companies.

Why is this? Does anyone have some broker recommendations on whether to take out there offer. 

As WHC offerred the $15000 worth of stock to any stockholder, no matter how much you hold. As I held 22K worth I presumed the $3.55 current price was too high technically. So I sold off 90% and now will review whether to take out the $3.05 offering before end of the month. 

Fundamentally I am unsure whether I wish to keep them for the long term. With a PE now approx 22 and yield only 1% I think their are other better coal companies out there.

GCL- 4.5% yield + 5.5 PE
Centennial coal also far more attractive in my eyes.
Even MCC looks like a better and bigger play.

Yet their has been talk of a WHC takeover or purchase in the recent past. Thus the fast run up. Yet I price the stock at $2.40, since its run up from 84c in Jan. 

I purchased the stock (Unfortunately) last year at $4.20. I feel my best strategy maybe to take up the offer then sell. Unless I find other info to understand why I should keep this stock over other coal shares for the long term.
 Any other thoughts???


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## jayinoz (28 August 2009)

moses said:


> In a trading halt to raise cash and a cracking report.
> 
> http://www.whitehaven.net.au/pages/index.php but Aussies only.
> 
> ...




Darn it I found out I just missed out on being eligible for their SPP. Just as I see Daewoo International are wishing to purchase a large chuck of the company to secure coal... report out last night on NZ financial site. Maybe finally a move back towards $4 in short term?

Daewoo to invest in Whitehaven Coal
27 August 2009    .DAEWOO International will set up an affiliate in Australia this year to buy a 5% stake in a bituminous coal mine. 

The company says the new entity, named Daewoo International Australia Holdings, will invest in the Narrabri coal mine owned by Australian mining company Whitehaven Coal. 
The new entity will be wholly owned by Daewoo International with A$111.4 million in capital. 

The two Korean companies will be supplied with 1.5 million tons of bituminous coal a year, or 25% of the mine's production.


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## moses (28 November 2009)

moses said:


> In a trading halt to raise cash and a cracking report.
> 
> http://www.whitehaven.net.au/pages/index.php but Aussies only.
> 
> ...



Well I subscribed and bought the full allotment, made a nice profit selling most out just shy of $4:40. Where is the price going now? Nick Radge reckons a deep retracement is due back down close to $3, which would be great as I'd like to see a dip to buy back in, but on the ground I don't see why I should expect one. Narrabri North is getting close to production and we've had another inspiring report recently, flagging the likelihood of increasing production from 6MT/a to up to 9MT/a.


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## moses (23 December 2009)

The rise and rise of WHC is getting boring. Does anyone have an estimation of where we might reasonably expect this to go over the next 12 months? Narrabri North expects to be producing coal early in 2010, and expects to be in longwall production in 2011. If that is where Whitehaven stops development, delivering iirc something like 15m tons of coal pa across all of its mines, where do the maths take us for its SP? I guess my question is about whether I should get in deeper and at what point I should jump out.


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## noirua (24 December 2009)

noirua said:


> Double my purchase price in April last are Whitehaven at $3.20, imho are looking a bit toppy, and I've decided to rush for the exit.
> With dark thoughts on the oil price going the rounds, I can't see a reason for much to go for from here.
> For those who remain, I hope its all a mistake and WHC continue on up - good luck.




Five months ago I posted this and now feel a bit peeved.  The price continues on upward with stocks like MCC.  The Aussie$ price for thermal coal out of newcastle is now around AU$95 a tonne.  May well be something in the price for a takeover bid and increases the speculative nature of this sector. A lot to go for I suppose, but don't forget its just a dig the coal out and sell it company, little else.


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## michael_selway (25 December 2009)

noirua said:


> Five months ago I posted this and now feel a bit peeved.  The price continues on upward with stocks like MCC.  The Aussie$ price for thermal coal out of newcastle is now around AU$95 a tonne.  May well be something in the price for a takeover bid and increases the speculative nature of this sector. A lot to go for I suppose, but don't forget its just a dig the coal out and sell it company, little else.




Yes its getting pricey now one would think

*Earnings and Dividends Forecast (cents per share) 
2009 2010 2011 2012 
EPS 19.1 13.4 19.0 30.5 
DPS 8.5 10.9 9.2 15.1 *







thx

MS


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## noirua (25 December 2009)

michael_selway said:


> Yes its getting pricey now one would think
> 
> MS




The whole sector looks pricey, from minnow to MCC. However, Gloucester Coal are over $8 now with the present bid, and I thought $6.50 was tops for them. 
In the UK they're chasing mining stocks with Vedanta up 400%+.

China is the lead market with forecasts of 9% growth and the USA looking better. As I'm now about 90% in cash after the Felix Resources pay out; am I doing the right thing with my masterly innaction m_s???????????


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## moses (12 January 2010)

Yeah well but the price just keep on climbing climbing. Masterly inaction seems not to have been the right move.


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## Logique (10 June 2010)

Been watching this one for a long time. Coal prices keep going up.
Stock holders would not be happy with the false rumour today that an equity raising was planned. Whitehaven management have come out with a comprehensive denial of this, or even the need for it (see ASX anns). I was impressed with management's prompt action, and their disclosure. On a day with some green ink around, WHC dipped into the red, so it looked to me an opportunity at the lower end of a range.


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## skc (21 April 2011)

Very quiet... what's going on with the share price?

Down 6% today, retraced a bit after a 'nothing' announcement, now back down 6%.

Where are these media reports that the company is talking about?


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## wasabi (21 April 2011)

Potential business deal / takeover:
http://www.theaustralian.com.au/bus...o-finding-suitor/story-fn4xq4cj-1226038594305


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## wasabi (21 April 2011)

skc said:


> Very quiet... what's going on with the share price?
> 
> Down 6% today, retraced a bit after a 'nothing' announcement, now back down 6%.
> 
> Where are these media reports that the company is talking about?





The market need a clear explanation? or speculate the takeover not happenning?:dunno:


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## skyQuake (21 April 2011)

wasabi said:


> The market need a clear explanation? or speculate the takeover not happenning?:dunno:




Bloomberg 12:19pm *Yanzhou coal says it is not in talks to buy Whitehaven, quoting DealReporter (whatever that is)


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## skc (21 April 2011)

skyQuake said:


> Bloomberg 12:19pm *Yanzhou coal says it is not in talks to buy Whitehaven, quoting DealReporter (whatever that is)




So that's 1 no bid from tons of other bidders??

Man I really need a bloomberg terminal and desktop Iress...

SkyQ, do you think a prop shop will take me doing pairs trading equities?


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## skyQuake (21 April 2011)

skc said:


> So that's 1 no bid from tons of other bidders??
> 
> Man I really need a bloomberg terminal and desktop Iress...
> 
> SkyQ, do you think a prop shop will take me doing pairs trading equities?




As long as u're profitable, and can show that you can still be profitable doing size.
ie if you're trying to make 0.5c buying pen at 11.5 and selling 12 they'll show u the door


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## awg (21 April 2011)

When Felix sold I moved my "takeover play" proceeds to WHC.

I had narrowed it down to a choice of WHC or Riversdale


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## skc (21 April 2011)

skyQuake said:


> As long as u're profitable, and can show that you can still be profitable doing size.
> ie if you're trying to make 0.5c buying pen at 11.5 and selling 12 they'll show u the door




Lol... and security will rough me up on the way out no doubt.

I think I can easily trade 20x bigger on most of my positions if I had the money and the risk appetite. On current trajectory it will take me ~5 years to get there...

Anyhow - back to WHC. Surely the takeover is still on...


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## Bibimbap (12 July 2012)

Heard on Your Money Your call that the Tinkler takeover speculation is looking precarious following a failure of a US coal company. 

Got a small parcel at $4.11 on Monday... only to watch the share price smashed the past 4days


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## notting (15 July 2012)

I was waiting for it to to stop tanking so aggressively.
Can't believe Tinkler moved so quickly.
Must be paranoid about another offer?
Strange.
Or concerned his stake in WHC was being cheapened too much.
A little crazy.
Maybe he is hoping another offer will come in over the top of his so he can cash out?
Makes more sense, but a little optimistic in this environment.
Perhaps he has friends in China.


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## So_Cynical (17 August 2012)

I brought some WHC shares today for my superfund at $3.61 including brokerage...WHC is a big mature business that appears to me to be a little undervalued at the moment, close to 500 million in the bank, a low debt burden and plans to double there coal output this financial year.

And in the unlikely event that Nathan Tinkler can actually come up with the money, ill be more than happy to sell him my shares for $5.20

http://www.smh.com.au/business/has-nathan-tinklers-luck-run-out-20120816-24bku.html


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## Family_Guy (22 August 2012)

I'm with you, So_Cynical.

I was about to press the buy button in my super account, thought i'd come past here and have a look at what others are saying first......not that that matters, but i just cant seem to get my head around the large drop in price in recent times, i understand the special div they gave out in April, just can't see why another buck fitty has come off.


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## So_Cynical (22 August 2012)

Family_Guy said:


> but i just cant seem to get my head around the large drop in price in recent times, i understand the special div they gave out in April, just can't see why another buck fitty has come off.




Yep im with ya... i was involved with a stock awhile ago that paid a big in specie distribution and did a share consolidation and afterwards the market sort of didn't know how to value the stock..so in this market it was somehow seen as a negative and the stock got very over sold based on nothing really.

I think a bit of the same is happening here, the 50 cent divi has thrown out the valuation, couple that with the falling coal price and the switching from resources and energy to banks and yield and you are left with some genuine value in the miners and mining services sectors.


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## willstor (25 September 2012)

So_Cynical said:


> Yep im with ya... i was involved with a stock awhile ago that paid a big in specie distribution and did a share consolidation and afterwards the market sort of didn't know how to value the stock..so in this market it was somehow seen as a negative and the stock got very over sold based on nothing really.
> 
> I think a bit of the same is happening here, the 50 cent divi has thrown out the valuation, couple that with the falling coal price and the switching from resources and energy to banks and yield and you are left with some genuine value in the miners and mining services sectors.




got in at 2.89 (not the bottom but hopefully close!) target 3.50. 

am i missing something re WHC????????


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## skc (25 September 2012)

willstor said:


> got in at 2.89 (not the bottom but hopefully close!) target 3.50.
> 
> am i missing something re WHC????????




Rumour of major shareholder Tinkler looking for an exit = potential volume overhang on the stock.


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## notting (26 September 2012)

Looking for a double bottom yesterday.
Todays action a little dicey as it finished toward it's lows of the day and has not managed to break back up over 2.90 which could quickly become new resistance.  
Volume was very light however so possible double bottom still in play.  
Next few days will be interesting.


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## skc (26 September 2012)

notting said:


> Looking for a double bottom yesterday.
> Todays action a little dicey as it finished toward it's lows of the day and has not managed to break back up over 2.90 which could quickly become new resistance.
> Volume was very light however so possible double bottom still in play.
> Next few days will be interesting.




As per last post... you got to have a Tinkler-sized stop if you take a position in WHC.

He might struggle to find a buyer/buyers for his stake. If he's margin called and stock gets dumped on market... then watch out below.


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## notting (26 September 2012)

skc said:


> As per last post... you got to have a Tinkler-sized stop if you take a position in WHC.
> 
> He might struggle to find a buyer/buyers for his stake. If he's margin called and stock gets dumped on market... then watch out below.




Maybe Mirvac will become a conglomerate!?
Yes, being cautious, thank you.


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## willstor (29 September 2012)

skc said:


> As per last post... you got to have a Tinkler-sized stop if you take a position in WHC.
> 
> He might struggle to find a buyer/buyers for his stake. If he's margin called and stock gets dumped on market... then watch out below.




If it gets dumped further that's a huge buying opportunity for the stock over a years timeframe imo
Its worth 3.20 easy


----------



## willstor (4 October 2012)

What happened today? That was a 12% rise!


----------



## notting (4 October 2012)

Tinkler has been doing finger exercises and they are much thinner now!?

Chinas starting to move on our assets, as predicted.
DML. Wonder what will happen with SDL.
They have downramped to the hilt using up stock piles and making Ore and Coal prices plummet and now they are trying to take over what they have destroyed the confidence in.


----------



## willstor (10 October 2012)

Filled at 3.20 awesome.


----------



## willstor (29 October 2012)

Back at 3 today. Another break down to 2.78ish, and i may go back in again...


----------



## So_Cynical (20 December 2012)

Another week and another take over, WHC looks to be ready to make a deal.

http://news.smh.com.au/breaking-new...ays-shenhua-offer-reports-20121219-2blyg.html

Up 8% today on the news and up 26% in the last 5 weeks.


----------



## willstor (22 December 2012)

Can't see a takeover happening fast...too much baggage. Once Tinklers problems are resolved one way or another it'll happen. It'll be dragged back to 3.10 by the impending market fall.


----------



## Garpal Gumnut (22 December 2012)

willstor said:


> Can't see a takeover happening fast...too much baggage. Once Tinklers problems are resolved one way or another it'll happen. It'll be dragged back to 3.10 by the impending market fall.




Agree.

WHC is one of those stocks where surprises will come, and the price will go up or down quickly, on events unpredictable by commentators or analysts.

There are too many shaky players in the mix.

gg


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## willstor (7 January 2013)

Garpal Gumnut said:


> Agree.
> 
> WHC is one of those stocks where surprises will come, and the price will go up or down quickly, on events unpredictable by commentators or analysts.
> 
> ...




and like tick follows tock...there it goes back down

ANZ have pulled funding for the Maules Creek project, however I've no doubt someone else will step in, perhaps from China?!


----------



## skc (7 January 2013)

willstor said:


> and like tick follows tock...there it goes back down
> 
> ANZ have pulled funding for the Maules Creek project, however I've no doubt someone else will step in, perhaps from China?!




What's going on? Did AAP screw up big time? Or is that the smoke validating the presence of fire?

Reminds me of the time when S&P (or fitch) accidentally leaked a pending soverign rating change.



> **KILL/TAKEDOWN NOTICE**  **KILL/TAKEDOWN NOTICE**
> EDS: Please kill story slugged WHITEHAVEN, headlined WHITEHAVEN
> 
> LOSES MAULES CREEK FUNDING, ex MELBOURNE at 1218 AEDT.


----------



## skyQuake (7 January 2013)

Hilarious

apparently it was sent in by some anti coal protest group.


----------



## DocK (7 January 2013)

I don't hold WHC, but I'm wondering how many traders/investors may have been stopped out due to this hoax, and is there any recourse for them?  Good buying for some, I guess - do they get to keep the shares bought due to the sudden decline in price?  No doubt ASIC will investigate, but the perps may not even be in Australia, so I assume the ability to control hoax emails/announcements is very limited.   Didn't the opposite happen with DJS last year - fake takeover bid or something?


----------



## skc (7 January 2013)

skyQuake said:


> Hilarious
> 
> apparently it was sent in by some anti coal protest group.




Hilarious but also sad. It took ASX/WHC 22 minutes to issue a trading halt when clearly a real announcement of such implication should have been announced straight away.

I wonder if the anti-coal group has their legal advice team approve of this hoax??



DocK said:


> I don't hold WHC, but I'm wondering how many traders/investors may have been stopped out due to this hoax, and is there any recourse for them?  Good buying for some, I guess - do they get to keep the shares bought due to the sudden decline in price?  No doubt ASIC will investigate, but the perps may not even be in Australia, so I assume the ability to control hoax emails/announcements is very limited.   Didn't the opposite happen with DJS last year - fake takeover bid or something?




Of course the buyers get to keep the share, and the sellers who sold in panic or auto stop loss - too bad. Some will choose to blame others while some will choose to accept that you've got to expect the unexpected sometimes.

The fact that neither ANZ/WHC made any statement on the supposed withdrawal of funding means that it didn't smell right... but not too many people thought of it as a hoax immediately either.


----------



## DocK (7 January 2013)

skc said:


> Hilarious but also sad. It took ASX/WHC 22 minutes to issue a trading halt when clearly a real announcement of such implication should have been announced straight away.
> 
> I wonder if the anti-coal group has their legal advice team approve of this hoax??
> 
> ...




Thanks for the info.  I'm reluctant to leave stops in the market for that very reason, and work off eod data for a medium to long-term strategy.  I'll take today's events as further validation for my reasoning


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## notting (7 January 2013)

It wasn't as bigger hoax as QE3 & 4.


----------



## skc (7 January 2013)

DocK said:


> Thanks for the info.  I'm reluctant to leave stops in the market for that very reason, and work off eod data for a medium to long-term strategy.  I'll take today's events as further validation for my reasoning




It's rare to get stopped out on a hoax. But it's common that an early intra day exit turns out to be the best exit. 

All depends on your strategy I guess.


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## willstor (7 January 2013)

The press need to review their processes to allow this into the wider audience otherwise it could spark a trend. Anz can't be happy.


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## Garpal Gumnut (7 January 2013)

Garpal Gumnut said:


> Agree.
> 
> WHC is one of those stocks where surprises will come, and the price will go up or down quickly, on events unpredictable by commentators or analysts.
> 
> ...




Well, I would never have predicted this. We now have crusties and activists in the share market, affecting prices.

From the SMH.



> Hoaxer's defence
> In a later phone call, Mr Moylan admitted the hoax, and claimed it was justified by the environmental destruction he said would be wrought by the mine, near Narrabri in NSW.
> "We considered the decision to run a spoof very carefully before we did it, but we believe it is justified,’’ Mr Moylan said. ‘‘We think it is a bit like the Chaser getting into APEC, or the Yes Men announcing that Union Carbide had shut down."
> Asked if he had qualms about lying to the public to achieve environmental ends, he said: ‘‘Our primary concern is the impact of this mine on the environment at the end of the day. A lot of people were taken in by it, but when you compare the cost of that to the health of our forests and farmlands, it justifies it.’’
> ...




This little crustie has bitten off more than he can chew. My contacts in NSW tell me that many important people have been stung with stop losses by Jonathon Moylan, and will seek recompense.

I fail to see how it is like the Chaser and APEC. Some people would have lost a significant portion of their savings on this. And some others would have been stung badly.

His name is Jonathon Moylan.

This what he looked like today.







gg



DocK said:


> Thanks for the info.  I'm reluctant to leave stops in the market for that very reason, and work off eod data for a medium to long-term strategy.  I'll take today's events as further validation for my reasoning




Agree, Doc,

I couldn't be bothered sitting in front of a screen all day waiting for a joker like Joanthon Moylan to destroy my wealth.

Medium to long term is as good as most folk without 3 screens can manage.

gg


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## Garpal Gumnut (8 January 2013)

I am told that ASIC and entities close to those mentioned in the recent ongoing ICAC are after said Jonathon, for damages.

I have never wanted to be a Jonathon.

Especially now.

How nice to be a garpal and not a crustie.

gg


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## qldfrog (8 January 2013)

I lost some dollars yesterday due to a SL activated and am not in WHC anymore as a result.
Not what I wanted
I still believe the ASX did not do its proper governance job;
In my opinion, they should have cancelled all trades between the hoax release and the trading halt (they took their time to stop trading...) and they should definitively sue the hoaxer
If not : I have a nice way to make easy money: release some crap news SDL deal is canned for example(IT IS NOT TRUE ...YET),. buy 20 minute later, and resell at the end of the day
Pocket the profit and announce it was just a joke to demonstrate the colonialism spirit of western countries in Africa.
Governance on the share market here is a joke.


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## basilio (8 January 2013)

Darkly creative exercise of Jonathan Doyle to create a fake scare on Whithaven coal. 

Worth noting that in the big picture one of the unspoken terrors of financial markets is the threat of  losing trillions of dollars on stranded fossil fuel assets.

Global Warming isn't going away. It is caused largely by CO2 generated by the use of coal. oil, natural gas. If/when we ever get the point of realizing we have to substantially curtail the use of fossil fuels to have any chance of avoiding a climate catastrophe the collapse in value of the coal and oil industry will be many trillions of dollars.

As far as trying to take Jonathan to the cleaners for investors share losses? I guess he is worth  stuff all financially. In fact he would have made sure of that (if he had some sense) before he took his action.

I think there are many, many more company directors, stock brokers, share market spivs ect who should be rigorously hunted down and forced to refund illgotten gains before this guy is chased. 

http://www.guardian.co.uk/environment/2011/jul/12/fossil-fuels-coal
http://capitalinstitute.org/blog/big-choice-0


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## Julia (8 January 2013)

Only you, basilio, would find a reason to defend this stupidity by a twerp.


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## Out Too Soon (8 January 2013)

What a change, someone other than a CEO in the know duped the market. Scary that it's so easy to do, as qldfrog said "Governance on the share market here is a joke." 

( I don't think Basilio is defending him, just stating the obvious facts. The real twerp here is ASX - 22minutes)


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## basilio (8 January 2013)

Julia said:


> Only you, basilio, would find a reason to defend this stupidity by a twerp.




Get out of the wrong side of the bed this morning Julia?  Bit of bile on the liver ? Feeling a bit peevish ? 

I wasn't defending Jonathan actions.  I was noting that it was  a darkly effective way of highlighting what is  likely to be a far more profound reassessment of the value of coal and oil shares in the coming years. Did you consider checking up the references I offered ? 

As to how quickly and how high we should string him up for his actions ?  I repeat there a thousand more serious  deliberate scams happening in the share market. Equity trust, insider trading , rorts with insurance. You would be aware more than most of the dishonesty  practiced by the legal players in our markets.

What I particularly notice with all these incidents is how long it takes(if ever) to take action and the lettuce leaf slap on the wrist that is the consequence.


----------



## basilio (8 January 2013)

On reflection if I was ASIC/Whithaven  I  would not be too quick to take Jonathan Doyle to court over his actions.

A court case would offer an excellent opportunity to highlight the economic risks posed by continued coal mining at a time when climate change questions are intensifying. It might be okay on ASF to summarily dismiss the 99% of the  scientific community that says we have a very serious problem with regard to global warming. I don't believe it will work as well in a court with the focus on realty based evidence. 

We'll see.


----------



## drsmith (8 January 2013)

It wouldn't be coal mining that would be on trial.


----------



## basilio (8 January 2013)

drsmith said:


> It wouldn't be coal mining that would be on trial.




Well not coal mining per se.

I imagine the argument will concern the  environmental effects of burning coal and why these should therefore stop any further production. Maybe..


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## Garpal Gumnut (8 January 2013)

qldfrog said:


> I lost some dollars yesterday due to a SL activated and am not in WHC anymore as a result.
> Not what I wanted
> I still believe the ASX did not do its proper governance job;
> In my opinion, they should have cancelled all trades between the hoax release and the trading halt (they took their time to stop trading...) and they should definitively sue the hoaxer
> ...




Sorry to hear of your loss frog.

gg


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## drsmith (8 January 2013)

basilio said:


> Well not coal mining per se.
> 
> I imagine the argument will concern the  environmental effects of burning coal and why these should therefore stop any further production. Maybe..



Coal mining (and any other legitimate business activity for that matter) and market manipulation are two completely different issues.

Someone's negative view on one does not justify activity on the other. 

How do you think the global economy and your own lifestyle would fare is this sort of corporate terrorism was allowed to flourish ?


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## Smurf1976 (8 January 2013)

Suppose that I put out a press release tomorrow stating that the Australian Government has decided to scrap support for large scale renewable energy (eg wind farms).

Meanwhile I have a buy order at well below the market price on a relevant stock which is triggered by a falling share price.

Then people work out that my press release is a hoax and the share price bounces back up, triggering my sell order at a price considerably higher.

The possibilities here are endless and cover everything from ice cream to banking. What if I put out a release saying that "A major Australian bank has lost $5 billion overnight on currency trades" or something like that? 

As I said, endless possibilities here and coal mining is NOT the issue.


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## Garpal Gumnut (8 January 2013)

Looking at the chart, I could easily have a short term target of $4.00 for this stock.







gg


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## pixel (8 January 2013)

basilio said:


> Well not coal mining per se.
> 
> I imagine the argument will concern the  environmental effects of burning coal and why these should therefore stop any further production. Maybe..




Whilst I appreciate your voicing your opinion, basilio, and won't think any lesser of you for it, I cannot agree with the premise that it should be justified to cause over $300M damage just to make a point about something close to one's heart. To pull a stunt like this, hoping to get a day in court and the opportunity to increased publicity is gambling with other people's money in the hope to gain personal profit from it. 

IMHO, this guy is guilty of eco terrorism in a far bigger way than the miners he accuses. Do you have any idea of the obligations a mining company has to comply with in order to mitigate the impact and rehabilitate at the end of a mine's life? Yes, he should get his day in court - and be made to work for a living to pay back some of the damage he caused. But as it's just as likely that he is living off our money anyway, the alternative 5 years prison would do.

But I'm afraid, all he'll get is a slap on the wrist, after which he'll be able to continue to live in comfort that's supported by a community most of whose members are willing to work hard to avoid a slide back into a pre-industrial level that won't support one tenth of the current world population.

The Green idealists may get away with their "no mining, no logging, only eco-tourism" in Tasmania; but if you export that to the mainland and around the globe, there won't be any tourists left because no mining means no manufacturing means no transport means no jobs means no income to spend on eco-tourism in Tasmania. But the fluffheads don't see that.


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## skyQuake (8 January 2013)

Smurf1976 said:


> Suppose that I put out a press release tomorrow stating that the Australian Government has decided to scrap support for large scale renewable energy (eg wind farms).
> 
> Meanwhile I have a buy order at well below the market price on a relevant stock which is triggered by a falling share price.
> 
> ...




+1

It's fraud pure and simple. Methinks there's jail time here.

This is just 1 small step to financial terrorism. 

Shame on the ASX for not busting those trades though


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## Garpal Gumnut (8 January 2013)

skyQuake said:


> +1
> 
> It's fraud pure and simple. Methinks there's jail time here.
> 
> ...




Agree.

We all agree the ASX, ASIC, Jonathon Moylan ( his mother was obviously not a bogan, she must be dreadfully disappointed in how he turned out) and the AFR are a pack of incompetent wankers.

Can we get back on to WHC as a stock.

I posted an elegant chart above.

Any comments on $4.00 as a target?

gg


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## skyQuake (8 January 2013)

Higher highs and higher lows!

$5 and everyone wins right?!


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## pixel (8 January 2013)

Garpal Gumnut said:


> Can we get back on to WHC as a stock.
> 
> I posted an elegant chart above.
> 
> ...




Assuming they can concentrate on mining again, I can see no reason why, on the back of Chinese demand, they should have to remain below $5 for much longer. For the third time since my weekly chart showed the strength indicators, the MACD momentum has become positive; but this time it's after a Bullish Divergence. That gives me some hope - maybe "third time lucky"?


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## willstor (9 January 2013)

Asx took far too long to act. Media should check their sources. Nobody should have a stop loss in the range the stock moved. Anyone who purchased at the lower price should be investigated just in case.


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## qldfrog (9 January 2013)

willstor said:


> Asx took far too long to act. Media should check their sources. *Nobody should have a stop loss in the range the stock moved*. Anyone who purchased at the lower price should be investigated just in case.



stock went from 3.63 the previous days to 3.21 a delta of 42 c out of 3.63 -> a bit above 11%
If your SL are always bigger than that, you must have lost a bucket during the GFC and like living dangerously!!!!
Agree for the rest


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## basilio (9 January 2013)

I agree this is a thread about Whitehaven Coal rather than the political actions of Jonathan Doyle so this will be my last comment on this topic

I think there is a case for asking deeper questions of a business than simply how much money it might be making today/tomorrow. As I pointed out  the whole fossil fuel industry is likely to come under scrutiny as climate change heats up and it becomes crystal clear that coal and oil use is the primary contributor.

There are also excellent precedents for social activists to use hoaxes like Jonathan Doyles to make a point about the moral bankruptcy of a company. In 2007 the Yes Men did a fantastic  hoax impersonating DOW chemicals as taking responsibility for the  Biphol  chemical disaster which killed thousands of Indians and left tens of thousands sick. 

DOW shares dropped $2Billion before they managed to  point out they were not going to  pay any more reparation. Worth a look if only to reflect on how companies work.  I don't believe the Yes Men were prosecuted for this action.



http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=LiWlvBro9eI
http://www.mnn.com/earth-matters/wilderness-resources/stories/6-great-environmental-pranks


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## Garpal Gumnut (9 January 2013)

basilio said:


> I agree this is a thread about Whitehaven Coal rather than the political actions of Jonathan Doyle so this will be my last comment on this topic
> 
> I think there is a case for asking deeper questions of a business than simply how much money it might be making today/tomorrow. As I pointed out  the whole fossil fuel industry is likely to come under scrutiny as climate change heats up and it becomes crystal clear that coal and oil use is the primary contributor.
> 
> ...





His name is Moylan I believe, not Doyle, unless he has changed his name as Sen. Lee Rhiannon has.

Her comments are indicative of the type of lowlife with which Whitehaven is dealing. From The Australian.



> Greens leader Christine Milne and Greens Senator Lee Rhiannon have backed Mr Moylan, with Ms Milne telling Fairfax media that his hoax was “part of long and pound history of civil disobedience, potentially breaking the law, to highlight something wrong”.
> 
> But Whitehaven chairman Mark Vaile today slammed the hoaxer as “unAustralian”, for committing a fraud that caused millions of dollars to be lost.




And talking of lowlife. there are, I have been told some "colourful characters" formerly Whitehaven shareholders who have lost some millions on stop loss orders through young Jonathon's escapade.

Getting to gaol may be just the beginning of his torment.

Doyle I believe presents the ABC Radio National Breakfast "Show" at great expense and has nothing to do with these events. 

gg


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## Julia (9 January 2013)

Garpal Gumnut said:


> Doyle I believe presents the ABC Radio National Breakfast "Show" at great expense
> 
> gg



He does indeed, fortunately only over the holiday period.
I didn't ever think I'd be hanging out for the return of Fran Kelly, but the demeanour and sophistry offered by Mr Doyle is just awful.    The whole Radio National holiday program has been woeful, whilst the ABC Local Radio holiday presenters have been fantastic.

Apologies to Whitehaven Coal investors.  This comment should have been in another thread.  Sorry.


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## willstor (10 January 2013)

qldfrog said:


> stock went from 3.63 the previous days to 3.21 a delta of 42 c out of 3.63 -> a bit above 11%
> If your SL are always bigger than that, you must have lost a bucket during the GFC and like living dangerously!!!!
> Agree for the rest




I was thinking about buying when trading halted! 

Re the 5 dollar price target hasn't Tinkler said he'd sell at 4? Wouldn't that prevent the stock pushing too far past 4?


----------



## qldfrog (11 January 2013)

blatant lies from ASX about their mismanagement of the WHC hoax:

Read more: http://www.brisbanetimes.com.au/bus...hoax-trades-20130110-2ciy6.html#ixzz2HbN5Y4J1
"An ASX spokeswoman confirmed that the Whitehaven incident did not meet the criteria."[for trade cancellation: imove by 10 per cent or more within three minutes]
well this is a rule for normal trading stop not, 
"
She said Monday's trading in Whitehaven was ''within ASX's prescribed no-cancellation range. Subsequently, ASX has received no requests for cancellation from ASX market participants.''

Well, I did express a formal request to the asx on that very day, before 2Pm if I remember well; it even took a while to reach them, and then when request rejected, I launched a fully documented ASIC complaint!
Thanks God I did...


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## Julia (11 January 2013)

Have you received any response, qldfrog, re your request for cancellation?


----------



## Garpal Gumnut (11 January 2013)

qldfrog said:


> blatant lies from ASX about their mismanagement of the WHC hoax:
> 
> Read more: http://www.brisbanetimes.com.au/bus...hoax-trades-20130110-2ciy6.html#ixzz2HbN5Y4J1
> "An ASX spokeswoman confirmed that the Whitehaven incident did not meet the criteria."[for trade cancellation: imove by 10 per cent or more within three minutes]
> ...




good on you frog.
I trust it goes well

gg



Julia said:


> Have you received any response, qldfrog, re your request for cancellation?




Unfortunately once it gets past T3 it will not be reversible easily.

gg


----------



## Garpal Gumnut (11 January 2013)

qldgrog

Pressure is mounting on the ASX to reverse the trades.

From the SMH.

Keep the pressure on ASIC.



> Whitehaven shares fell nearly 9 per cent around midday on Monday after environmental activist Jonathan Moylan fooled some traders and media into thinking the company had been stripped of a $1.2 billion loan promised by ANZ Bank.
> The ASX has stood firm behind its ''trade cancellation rules'', which say that a stock price must move by 10 per cent or more within three minutes to warrant a cancellation of trades made under illegitimate circumstances.
> An ASX spokeswoman confirmed that the Whitehaven incident did not meet the criteria.
> She said Monday's trading in Whitehaven was ''within ASX's prescribed no-cancellation range. Subsequently, ASX has received no requests for cancellation from ASX market participants.''
> ...




gg


----------



## DocK (11 January 2013)

Every event like this gives further reason to be wary of investing in shares for those that are still smarting from the effects of the GFC.  If ASIC care at all for the credibility of the Australian sharemarket, and wish to shore up what confidence remains in it - it needs to act accordingly - both to punish the perpetrator/s and reverse trades.  All that "cash on the sidelines" will stay there even longer imo if these sorts of hoaxes are seen to be a price that _working families_ simply have to accept as an added risk to involvement in the sharemarket.  I also wonder what sort of picture of the Australian market it portrays to overseas funds looking to invest here


----------



## Trembling Hand (11 January 2013)

DocK said:


> I also wonder what sort of picture of the Australian market it portrays to overseas funds looking to invest here




They wouldn't give a toss.


----------



## Garpal Gumnut (16 January 2013)

An interesting development today.

Tasmanian Greens are saying that Moylan is not a hero, but liable to the full force of the law.

They are in conflict with the commos who run NSW Greens.

http://www.afr.com/p/national/greens_divide_over_whitehaven_hoax_7CV3FcToKzX6qru0l9rd7O



> SOPHIE MORRIS
> Greens senator and former investment banker Peter Whish-Wilson has said he would not endorse a hoax by a climate activist that temporarily wiped $300 million off the value of Whitehaven Coal, in a rare public split in the party.
> 
> He acknowledged his views put him at odds with NSW Greens senator Lee Rhiannon, who congratulated the activist.
> ...




gg


----------



## Julia (16 January 2013)

Ah, but Mr Whish-Wilson is a somewhat unlikely Greens candidate.  He is an economist and has worked in the past for Merrill Lynch and Deutsche Bank.


----------



## pixel (17 January 2013)

Julia said:


> Ah, but Mr Whish-Wilson is a somewhat unlikely Greens candidate.  He is an economist and has worked in the past for Merrill Lynch and Deutsche Bank.




Does that disqualify him from having an opinion?

I, too, sympathise with many Green ideas and ideals: Living within one's means. Conserving resources. Leaving the place as clean as possible. Doesn't mean I can't have a more liberal attitude towards reality of industry and commerce.

I draw the line where other people's rights and livelihoods are impacted. And I try to retain a modicum of practical feasibility. My opinions may clash with others'; they often do; but I don't resort to fraud and deceit in order to make a point.


----------



## Julia (17 January 2013)

pixel said:


> Does that disqualify him from having an opinion?



Of course not.  How did I suggest that?
Do you disagree that his training and background is somewhat different from that of most of the Greens politicians?


----------



## Garpal Gumnut (20 January 2013)

It will be interesting to see how WHC performs in late Jan, February.

It seems to be gathering some strength.

A possible decisive move soon over $3.50, or not?







gg


----------



## tasmanian (20 January 2013)

I like it Mr Gumnut.

Hopefully moves above $3.63 in the next day or 2 and gets a nice uptrend going.


----------



## Garpal Gumnut (20 January 2013)

tasmanian said:


> I like it Mr Gumnut.
> 
> Hopefully moves above $3.63 in the next day or 2 and gets a nice uptrend going.




Thanks tas,

It looks like that.

I bought some after the alleged criminal crustie Green ******** Moylan did the dirty on the stock.

gg


----------



## willstor (12 February 2013)

Maules creek conditionally approved... Back to 3.20 again today?


----------



## Accumulator (28 February 2013)

*What does the mid term hold for WHC*

Whitehaven Coal (WHC) looking a bit sad since conditional approval of Maule's Creek and half yearly results. Does anyone have any idea of what Nathan Tinkler is up too since his takeover attempt last year? I notice that the new CEO is one of his associates.

I would have thought that there would be some movement upwards once Maule's Creek commences. It would also need an improvement in Coal prices and a lower dollar

Be interested in any comments

Cheers!


----------



## pixel (28 February 2013)

*Re: What does the mid term hold for WHC*



Accumulator said:


> Whitehaven Coal (WHC) looking a bit sad since conditional approval of Maule's Creek and half yearly results. Does anyone have any idea of what Nathan Tinkler is up too since his takeover attempt last year? I notice that the new CEO is one of his associates.
> 
> I would have thought that there would be some movement upwards once Maule's Creek commences. It would also need an improvement in Coal prices and a lower dollar
> 
> ...




If it's fundamentals and/or speculation that you're after, then I can't help. Sorry.
But in reply to the question "What does the mid term hold for WHC?", I find a few clues in the attached chart:




Seeing how the January Double Top has played out pretty close to doubling the range $3.63 to $3.21, there would be a chance that a triple bottom might do something similar in the opposite direction. Obviously, the primary condition for that to happen is, $2.70-ish support must hold. If it doesn't, the future would look decidedly grim with a head and shoulders pattern threatening a drop way below $2.

What do you reckon? Will the expected change of government cause the pendulum to swing back to coal? That will probably depend on the size of Climate Agnosticism and Apathy in the next Cabinet. ... or the market perception and expectation in that regard.


----------



## Accumulator (1 March 2013)

Thank you for your response Pixel. I do not pretend to be an expert, however my research and Brokers consensus indicate that the mid term is looking ok. The short term may be slow as a result of the half yearly results. I think that 2013 will see the share price rise as the new CEO exerts his influence. WHC is already looking at cost savings and the current situation is partly due to low coal prices and the high Aussie dollar, not to mention a train derailment and coal quality issues which are being addressed. There are signs of the dollar weakening and this will help significantly if that trend continues. Given the RBA's recent comments on the $AUS I believe we are heading towards 90 cents by the end of the year. Maule's Creek final approval and construction should be a major plus in 2013. We also need to keep in mind what Nathan Tinkler may be thinking and and a takeover attempt cannot be ruled out. I appreciate some of my thoughts are speculative but it is how I am thinking. I would appreciate any feedback you or others might like to offer. Have a good day!

Accumulator


----------



## Trembling Hand (1 March 2013)

Accumulator said:


> I appreciate some of my thoughts are speculative but it is how I am thinking. I would appreciate any feedback you or others might like to offer.




Gee sounds like EVERYTHING is positive.


----------



## Accumulator (1 March 2013)

Trembling Hand said:


> Gee sounds like EVERYTHING is positive.




No not EVERYTHING! Short term will be slow


----------



## notting (1 March 2013)

> Nathan Tinkler's executive jet and helicopter have been put up for sale by the receiver of the coal baron's aviation company.




This little overhang will not be helping the move north at this point either.


----------



## Accumulator (1 March 2013)

notting said:


> This little overhang will not be helping the move north at this point either.




Yes i thought the same thing when I saw the article


----------



## notting (3 March 2013)

Tinkler's main asset is 19.4 per cent stake in Whitehaven, worth around $527 million at Friday's close. Tinkler's total debt to hedge fund Farallon Capital, believed to be about $700 million including principal and accumulated interest. 
 Aston Resources  213,589,946 WHC shares @ 2.68 =  $572,421,055.28

As long as the houses are in the wifes name, it should be OK, buy gold bars with the dividends and say you lost it at the races!

What would an Archibald of a bankrupt plummer look like?

Oh **** it was all a dream!





3.28 Nathan breaks even if he could sell today without too much brokerage.

On the positive side the Asiano boss reckons coal is not dead.
If that's the case you'd think it'd be about time a little Chinaman would come along and help make Nathan an offer he can't refuse!


----------



## Garpal Gumnut (3 March 2013)

I will be watching for a blow off low on ultra high volume finishing high on the day, for an entry.

I feel sorry for Nathan, at least he had a go.

Volume is increasing to the downside so blow off could be as early as next week.






gg


----------



## notting (3 March 2013)

Garpal Gumnut said:


> I will be watching for a blow off low on ultra high volume finishing high on the day, for an entry.
> I feel sorry for Nathan, at least he had a go.
> Volume is increasing to the downside so blow off could be as early as next week.




Agree.
There was plenty in the press to assist the down move, which is always helpful for a flush out.  
When the selling stops, should be good, providing the markets sequester siesta, doesn't become just that.
We are at a turning point on many levels.  
A new all time high on the DOW ends the secular bear and the little bull becomes a big bull.
A nasty pull down would confirm that the secular bear aint finished just yet.


----------



## Sean K (3 March 2013)

Garpal Gumnut said:


> I will be watching for a blow off low on ultra high volume finishing high on the day, for an entry.
> 
> I feel sorry for Nathan, at least he had a go.
> 
> ...



That break through 2.75 looks ominous. But does the volume look like a blow off? Poor Nathan, looking like a toasted electrician...


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## notting (8 March 2013)

Poor Nathans being a very naughty boy!



> Nathan Tinkler is facing the prospect of arrest and contempt of court charges if the embattled mining magnate does not show up to court next week, after he failed to comply with a court-ordered examination on Friday.


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## Garpal Gumnut (8 March 2013)

notting said:


> Poor Nathans being a very naughty boy!




I don't much care if he is naughty, a distressed sale though could be our blow off low.

gg


----------



## Accumulator (18 May 2013)

Well my patience looks like paying off...bought a heap at $1.90 and looking good. Should be one way traffic from here!


----------



## Garpal Gumnut (18 May 2013)

Accumulator said:


> Well my patience looks like paying off...bought a heap at $1.90 and looking good. Should be one way traffic from here!




A very good pick.

I have lost much on WHC, and am very wary of it.

gg


----------



## Accumulator (19 May 2013)

Garpal Gumnut said:


> A very good pick.
> 
> I have lost much on WHC, and am very wary of it.
> 
> gg




Cheers gg...let's hope the good times keep rolling! :drink:


----------



## prawn_86 (19 June 2013)

Tinkler is said to have sold his stake completely, and at a premium to the current price, which explains todays increase


----------



## Julia (19 June 2013)

prawn_86 said:


> Tinkler is said to have sold his stake completely, and at a premium to the current price, which explains todays increase



Yes.  It was on either the lunchtime news or "The World Today".


----------



## Accumulator (19 June 2013)

prawn_86 said:


> Tinkler is said to have sold his stake completely, and at a premium to the current price, which explains todays increase




Great to get that negativity out of the way...lower $Aus will help FY2013 financials. Just need coal to bounce a bit...looks good from here!


----------



## Country Lad (19 June 2013)

> *TINKLER SALE OF SHARES IN WHITEHAVEN*
> 
> Whitehaven Coal Limited (ASX:WHC) notes that Farallon Capital Management L.L.C. (Farallon) has today filed a Notice of Change of Interest for Substantial Holder indicating that it has acquired approximately 9.91% of the issued shares in Whitehaven Coal from entities associated with Mr Nathan Tinkler, and has agreed to purchase an additional 1.63% from ASM Equities Fund. As a result of these transactions, Farallon becomes the largest shareholder in Whitehaven Coal. A copy of Farallon’s announcement is attached.
> 
> ...




Cheers
Country Lad


----------



## Accumulator (20 June 2013)

Good times ahead....one would think, particularly as the $AUS continues to track south.


Black day for coal baron Nathan Tinkler as he loses control of Whitehaven  

 John Dagge •
  Herald Sun  •
 June 19, 2013 9:00PM


 FALLEN coal baron Nathan Tinkler has lost control of his key financial asset, with his lenders taking over his major stake in Whitehaven Coal.  

Mr Tinkler, once the youngest billionaire in Australia, has sold his near 20 per cent stake in the miner to his financial backers in a deal likely to be worth about $600 million.

US hedge fund Farallon Capital has effectively seized the bulk of the shareholding. The deal, announced Wednesday, may open Whitehaven up to renewed takeover interest.

It comes after Mr Tinkler was chased through the courts for unpaid debts and forced to sell his private jet and prized race horses.

Mr Tinkler, through his companies Aston Resources and Boardwalk Resources, sold 101 million Whitehaven shares to Farallon for $2.96 a share.

The shares represent about half of what was a 19.4 per cent stake in Whitehaven, which has lost two-thirds of its market value over 14 months.

Mr Tinkler's lending syndicate has bought the rest of stake, Whitehaven said in a statement.

BusinessDaily believes Investment bank Credit Suisse and Singapore's Kuok Group are among the lenders.

Farallon is paying a 40 per cent premium to Whitehaven's closing price on Tuesday, before the deal was announced.

If Whitehaven's share price has climbed above $2.96 by early next year, it will make an extra payment.

But the price is substantially less than the $6 a share Whitehaven was worth when it bought Aston and Boardwalk in April last year.

Farallon, which emerges as the major shareholder in Whitehaven with a near 17 per cent stake, has been Mr Tinkler's key financial backer throughout a rollercoaster career.

His debt pile has been estimated as high as $700 million, with the bulk owed to Farallon. The hedge fund said the sale proceeds would be used to "partly repay debt".

A statement from The Tinkler Group said its 37-year-old chief was happy with the sale price despite feeling it significantly undervalued the miner.

"Many will be aware of the emotional attachment that Mr Tinkler has to the assets of the company," the statement said. "However we believe that no longer being a substantial shareholder of Whitehaven will benefit all shareholders."

Morningstar analyst Gareth James said Farallon was unlikely to be a long-term shareholder and any move to offload its stake could open the company up to a new takeover bid.

Late last year state-owned Chinese coal giant Shenhua discussed a takeover deal.

"We don't see Farallon as natural long-term holders of Whitehaven shares and the process of finding a buyer may open the company up to a takeover offer," Mr James said.

Whitehaven's share price rallied 4.3 per cent on Wednesday to close at $2.20.


----------



## Letts (20 June 2013)

I think (and hope) that this stock is going to rally and head north - mainly because I believe that the removal of Mr Tinkler and the opportunity for an additional payout or takeover bid can only be beneficial to the shares value. 

Not a recommendation to buy, my opinion only.


----------



## willstor (24 June 2013)

Letts said:


> I think (and hope) that this stock is going to rally and head north - mainly because I believe that the removal of Mr Tinkler and the opportunity for an additional payout or takeover bid can only be beneficial to the shares value.
> 
> Not a recommendation to buy, my opinion only.




I agree. I sold out a great deal of my portfolio when 5000 broke and am only just about ready to return. 
A buy at 1.90 is good business, especially when its highly likely there will be a takeover. IMO of course!


----------



## Accumulator (24 June 2013)

I agree takeover is a strong possibility...still short sold over 10%, have to watch closely!


----------



## navtek (3 December 2013)

Hi,

This is probably a general question however will use my holding in WHC as an example.

Currently I hold a small portion (<5%) of WHC in my portfolio however currently sitting on a 50% loss just treading water waiting for a takeover offer. 

So I guess the general questions I was wondering is if anyone has any exit strategies or options when you find yourself in a situation like this. Not after financial advice on the stock but just wanted to provide some context. 

Options that come to mind:

- Start to strategically buy my way out of trouble, ie reducing my average cost price
- Hold and forget about it for a long period of time hoping for takeover price above my average.
- Suck it up and take the loss and ensure that I put this down as a lessened learned for not using SL's appropriately

Thanks in advanced.


----------



## piggybank (4 December 2013)

P&F daily update.


----------



## Accumulator (5 December 2013)

navtek said:


> Hi,
> 
> This is probably a general question however will use my holding in WHC as an example.
> 
> ...




Hi Navtek,

I am a relative newbie, so not very highly qualified to comment but if I found myself in a similar situation I would analyse how things have panned out.

Why did you buy the stock, what has caused the price reduction, do you believe the stock can come back etc.

In this case I think the deterioration in SP is well documented with factors like the Nathan Tinkler affect, weak coal prices, poor quality of coal, varied commentary on China's future, high Australian dollar etc

I would also look at how the various analysts rate the stock.

From my observation the long term appears positive. The new CEO appears to be stabilising up the financials, production is up, quality issues resolved, Maule's Creek is progressing and the Aussie is back around 90 cents which is a huge advantage for WHC. Analysts remain positive about the long term. I have also read in the Financial Review this week that companies are discussing possible joint ventures with WHC on Maule's Creek.

I guess the negatives would be uncertainty of world markets, Chinese demand, coal price remaining at record low levels.

My thoughts would be that i think the SP will come back in the long term and I am positive this can happen, indeed there are positive signs in the last week but that was needed because it has been a horror 12 months.

Good luck with what you choose to do, I hope some other experienced members can offer some input on general strategies for similar situations as i am interested in the same way you are


----------



## piggybank (10 December 2013)

P&F daily update.


----------



## notting (16 September 2016)

Having come from 40c to 2.18 you can't help think it's a bit late - but weekly looking promising. 
Doing an FMG paying down debt instead of being stupid.
Coal doubling in the last few weeks due to train line issue in Aus.


----------



## Boggo (23 September 2016)

Out today at $2.42, may have jumped too soon but happy to take this profit 

(click to expand)


----------



## skc (23 September 2016)

Boggo said:


> Out today at $2.42, may have jumped too soon but happy to take this profit
> 
> (click to expand)




Cracker of a trade


----------



## notting (23 September 2016)

Boggo said:


> Out today at $2.42, may have jumped too soon but happy to take this profit
> 
> (click to expand)



*
Breaking News*
China's economic planner, The National Development and Reform Commission, is being reported by Reuters as saying that China will "unwaveringly cut excess coal production capacity".  






PS.  Little Fu(kers front running their announcements.


----------



## Boggo (23 September 2016)

skc said:


> Cracker of a trade




Thanks skc.

Still have more losers than winners, small losers and big winners such as this (+SSM etc) give win/loss ratio of around 2.8 in my favour though.


----------



## Boggo (23 September 2016)

notting said:


> *
> Breaking News*
> China's economic planner, The National Development and Reform Commission, is being reported by Reuters as saying that China will "unwaveringly cut excess coal production capacity".
> 
> ...




Haha, I'll be back in if it runs again


----------



## CrazyDan (24 September 2016)

Boggo said:


> Out today at $2.42, may have jumped too soon but happy to take this profit
> 
> (click to expand)




When/where did you get in?


----------



## Boggo (26 September 2016)

Boggo said:


> Haha, I'll be back in if it runs again




In again, couldn't get to the computer until around 11am so was a bit late getting back in, much reduced exposure this time too, that >10% drop in one day spooked me last week.
Not to worry, its the second mouse that gets the cheese 



CrazyDan said:


> When/where did you get in?



Precise details are on my other computer, got first lot in the 80's and second lot in the 1.20's, average was about $1.07.


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## notting (4 October 2016)

Mao Says price must go down.
Their still playing it -



> Wary of paying top dollar to import coal from places like Australia, China moved to loosen the policy on September 9, and according to reports is set to loosen it further for new mines under construction and all mines that passed safety standards in 2015.
> 
> Analysts at Morgan Stanley said the fresh changes would liberate approximately 789 Chinese coal mines, which represents the "vast majority" of Chinese coal production.
> 
> "We see the latest round of relaxation as aggressive. Not only has the government relaxed production cap for as many as 789 projects, new mines under construction are also allowed to resume. This shows the government's determination in adjusting coal supplies," the analysts said in a note.


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## notting (7 October 2016)

Betting against the trend for a quickie with protection 
2.73


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## notting (7 October 2016)

went in harder at 2.78 but did not like the fact that it made a higher high. The reason I went in harder was hoping for some profit taking on Friday afternoon which I got down to 2.71 and took most of it off for a small gain but basically exiting.  Not really the kind a trend you want to be against overnight after a higher high! (Being a Friday after a very strong week more often than not gives you some safety if it remains looking strong you can also get some counter trend follow through on the Monday morning but that's a bit more risky if it didn't do enough on the Friday, if it starts Monday strong, you can always go hard long for quick crack to recoup!)
Will off load the rest when it looks to consolidate after this little leg down.


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## tech/a (19 October 2016)

Up about 20% since the Chart was spotted as one
of interest 8/10/16

Chatter has gone quiet here just when it got interesting.

Hope you did well guys.

https://www.aussiestockforums.com/forums/showthread.php?t=31431&page=2


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## Boggo (19 October 2016)

tech/a said:


> Up about 20% since the Chart was spotted as one
> of interest 8/10/16
> 
> Chatter has gone quiet here just when it got interesting.
> ...




Doing nicely here, been a good one for me over the last three to four months.

One WHC per month is all I need


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## tech/a (19 October 2016)

Yeh noticed you've had it a while.

Not over yet!!


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## Boggo (19 October 2016)

tech/a said:


> Yeh noticed you've had it a while.
> 
> Not over yet!!




Another coal stock that popped up on my weekly on a break of $0.26 was YAL, took off too quickly for me. Getting sold off today though.


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## tech/a (19 October 2016)

Boggo said:


> Another coal stock that popped up on my weekly on a break of $0.26 was YAL, took off too quickly for me.* Getting sold off today though*.




Opportunity maybe setting up.
I'm sure you know how to play these Boggo.


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## BarneyChambers (6 December 2016)

During this year the company's sales revenues sky-rocketed by 54% to $574.3 million and the operating cash flow rose a massive 421% to 118.3 million. According to their CEO Paul Flynn, the company has achieved significant improvements across all key financial performance indicators. The coal produced by WHC is high quality producing more energy and less emissions, which is why it's being favored by a lot of new customers especially in the Asian market.

It'll definitely be interesting to see where this is going. For anyone interested I got my stats here:

http://au.advfn.com/newsletter/barneyc/640/whitehaven-coal-limited-rising-back-to-profitable-numbers


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## notting (12 October 2017)

Was overvalued as it was, now with a little disappointing coal price outlook should see a bit of a correction - short


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## peter2 (12 October 2017)

@notting  I need someone like you around to prevent me from turning into a lunatic bull. 

The line chart is Market Vectors Coal ETF. It shows that price has just bounced off support and is heading higher. This would support a break-out in the WHC chart.


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## Boggo (12 October 2017)

I'm watching this stock and to me it looks like someone is trying to push it down to the level they want to buy it at.
Some similiar behaviour on S32 yesterday and today.


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## notting (12 October 2017)

I'm thinking double top
Perceived weakness in China, has had a great run.  Don't be greedy!


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## peter2 (12 October 2017)

I'm not buying this BO if it happens because price is too close to 4.00. That is your backstop for any shorts. The price movements on the resource producers do seem a bit jumpy to me. China is always a good reason to remain wary.


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## Wysiwyg (12 October 2017)

Recent news 2 HOURS AGO


> Given the strength in prices during the September quarter, UBS analysts had expected the company to realise an average of around $US115 per tonne for metallurgical coal, and earn a premium on the Newcastle thermal coal benchmark that averaged $US92 a tonne.
> 
> The lower than estimated numbers clearly disappointed the market, leaving Whitehaven shares 2.8 per cent lower at $3.77 at 1315 AEDT.


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## Boggo (12 October 2017)

Wysiwyg said:


> Recent news 2 HOURS AGO




I reckon that news got priced in during the last two weeks of last month, something spooked it back then.



notting said:


> I'm thinking double top
> Perceived weakness in China, has had a great run.  Don't be greedy!




I am greedy 
You were shorting this a year ago at 2.71 notting 

Time will tell who is right I guess, I'm still in for the ride


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## rb250660 (12 October 2017)

Double tops are bs.


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## peter2 (21 January 2019)

The chart below is part of a research project and should not be considered a recommendation to buy this stock. If you want to read more about the project log in to read the P2 Weekly Portfolio thread. 

Setup: Key reversal bar with high volume, off support, BO of 123 low     Grade A 
Buy limit: 4.83, iSL 4.30, initial target 5.65


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## barney (27 December 2019)

One of my picks in the yearly comp.

Chart is ordinary …. just how I like them


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## Miner (10 July 2020)

barney said:


> One of my picks in the yearly comp.
> 
> Chart is ordinary …. just how I like them
> 
> View attachment 99279



This was the latest post on WHC -
why Paul sold out ?https://www.asx.com.au/asxpdf/20200611/pdf/44jkmfydx87999.pdf
I forgot to stop my buy order @1.465 thinking this will never reach that low and got executed. Should have been checking the movement and cancelled.


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## barney (10 July 2020)

Miner said:


> I forgot to stop my buy order @1.465 thinking this will never reach that low and got executed. Should have been checking the movement and cancelled.




I'm not really sure how to read "coal" stats that well, but their numbers to my lazy eye don't look anywhere near as bad relatively, compared to their share price drop.

Plus the majority of their numbers seem to on the improve relative to late last year, although still well down from a year ago.  

At least you got in close the current lows @Miner   There might be a little more pain in the short term SP but maybe this is the time to start accumulating? 

There is no better time to buy than the last low. Picking which is the last one is the hard bit


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## Miner (10 July 2020)

barney said:


> I'm not really sure how to read "coal" stats that well, but their numbers to my lazy eye don't look anywhere near as bad relatively, compared to their share price drop.
> 
> Plus the majority of their numbers seem to on the improve relative to late last year, although still well down from a year ago.
> 
> ...



You should start writing poems and puzzles too


----------



## barney (10 July 2020)

Miner said:


> You should start writing poems and puzzles too




LOL ... I'm a muso ... I write songs instead ..... I have quite a few "million dollar riffs"!!


----------



## Beaches (11 July 2020)

barney said:


> I'm not really sure how to read "coal" stats that well, but their numbers to my lazy eye don't look anywhere near as bad relatively, compared to their share price drop.





This below article is in relation to First State Super selling down its coal mining holdings and I seem to recall some other funds stating they were intending to do the same.

_One of Australia’s biggest industry superannuation funds plans to sell down its investments in thermal coal miners in a bid to protect its members from the financial impact of climate change._​
https://inqld.com.au/business/2020/07/09/super-funds-plan-to-turn-its-back-on-thermal-coal-stocks/

Coal price also seems to be lagging the rise in other commodities


----------



## finicky (5 October 2020)

Might discuss later if I watch the video clip again more closely. Interviewee seems to be saying that Whitehaven's thermal product is slightly cleaner than average metallurgical coal, can that be right?. Talks too fast for me. I've never made  dollar out of an energy investment but I have lost heaps for my size as a punter. He makes some intriguing points, think he says that last time the real usd price of oil has been this low is the 1940's? - "If you're not buying oil now, you never will".

Chart of WHC defintely has prospects - the massive positive volume last month to make a small bodied candle after a long descent, for starters. For my purposes the long term chart has been following a two year descending channel and has recently  come off the lower rail of that channel but there is not a clear monthly reversal candle yet in my book. August and September could easily turn out to be a tweezer pair bottom however. Price has reached the GFC level. I sort of hope WHC and WPL don't become more tempting because I always lose at energy and anyway I want to preserve cash.



WHC All Data Monthly


----------



## barney (5 October 2020)

finicky said:


> Chart of WHC defintely has prospects - the massive positive volume last month to make a small bodied candle after a long descent, for starters.





Agree.  Price is now above those high Volume down bars on 26-28th August.  Accumulate the dips looks fairly safe from here.


----------



## finicky (5 October 2020)

@barney I don't follow it at all but it appears a low quality stock from comsec financial summary. On the other hand it might be due a couple of the good years it can have after a pathetic FY20. Trading at roughly a third of its NTA and has been very rewarding price-wise obviously when picked up at a major low. Good amount of cash in its assets and even for the poor FY20 had its interest costs twice covered by earnings.
Just looked at the daily chart to see what you meant and quite like the rounding low it made late August and September. I tend to rely on monthly and quarterly charts to get clues for a longer term bear stock.


----------



## barney (5 October 2020)

finicky said:


> @barney I don't follow it at all




Yeah me either really. 

I took an interest in it after picking it in the yearly Comp (When the SP was being beaten up),  and it has continued down ever since  

Even at a dollar per share its still a $1 Billion dollar Company however. Price of Coal will likely be the tell tale indicator for any sustained rebound.


----------



## finicky (5 October 2020)

Quarterly chart. A brave buy.


----------



## sptrawler (5 October 2020)

I haven't looked at them, but I would guess a lot depends on how much of its resources are thermal coal and how much metallurgical, thermal is on the nose but coking coal is still wanted.


----------



## frugal.rock (5 October 2020)

I am going to watch this one with interest. 
My appetite for risk is fairly high and all I see is solid downtrend...
However, obviously, with all the talk and (some) systems starting to buy, maybe the bottom is in....
Can you see a coal company running up hard? 
Meh... 
"gas powered recovery"


----------



## qldfrog (5 October 2020)

frugal.rock said:


> I am going to watch this one with interest.
> My appetite for risk is fairly high and all I see is solid downtrend...
> However, obviously, with all the talk and (some) systems starting to buy, maybe the bottom is in....
> Can you see a coal company running up hard?
> ...



gas as long as it is dirt cheap, India China and actually most countries still burn coal like mad.in term of actual percentage of energy consumed yearly, coal remains the key source and green energies are peanuts.not a wish, just facts
a bit like your vogue fashion models, sadly, on the street, they are not that numerous  even if omni presents on TV and news/papers.




the production cost being mostly fixed, any extra dollar increase in price is pure profit and the future is bright: look at the chart...
was purchased by my daily system at 1.02 on the 28/09


----------



## finicky (5 October 2020)

qldfrog said:


> was purchased by my daily system at 1.02 on the 28/09



@qldfrog what was purchased @ 1.02, Whitehaven? 
Sorry if I'm obtuse.


----------



## finicky (5 October 2020)

@sptrawler it might be on the nose amongst arts degree comfy people to whom it costs absolutely nothing to virtue signal but it seems it's being used undiminished by White haven customers. Not that I am wildly enthusiastic about that - it is what it is. They produce both thermal and metallurgical coal and apparently it is high quality and sells for a premium. I'm thinking of putting in a stink bid (@ 50c - the last major low) in case the recent ST low doesn't hold.

A couple of grabs from their website:

*High-quality coal*
Coal has been the fastest growing energy source over the last ten years and global demand continues to rise, especially in South East Asia.
Our coal helps power regional economies through its contribution to *energy generation* and *steel production* and is highly sought-after for its unique properties, including the fact it delivers among the lowest carbon emissions per tonne of coal consumed in the seaborne trade.

Their customer locations


----------



## barney (5 October 2020)

No better time to buy any stock than at the last low ...... Picking if it's the "last" is the trick of course!  

Positions such as this look like low risk accumulation trades (in my opinion) Appropriate position sizing over a few entries should not risk the bank


----------



## Miner (5 October 2020)

finicky said:


> Might discuss later if I watch the video clip again more closely. Interviewee seems to be saying that Whitehaven's thermal product is slightly cleaner than average metallurgical coal, can that be right?. Talks too fast for me. I've never made  dollar out of an energy investment but I have lost heaps for my size as a punter. He makes some intriguing points, think he says that last time the real usd price of oil has been this low is the 1940's? - "If you're not buying oil now, you never will".
> 
> Chart of WHC defintely has prospects - the massive positive volume last month to make a small bodied candle after a long descent, for starters. For my purposes the long term chart has been following a two year descending channel and has recently  come off the lower rail of that channel but there is not a clear monthly reversal candle yet in my book. August and September could easily turn out to be a tweezer pair bottom however. Price has reached the GFC level. I sort of hope WHC and WPL don't become more tempting because I always lose at energy and anyway I want to preserve cash.
> 
> ...




I have heard many Africana and Asian language personnel speaking English - this one is not audible because of his mike setting was poor.
Coming back to metallurgical coal and cleanliness are not related. I apologise for sounding expert here but not sure how many of us have had experience in operating and maintaining blast furnaces. Miner had. Metallurgical coal primarily used in blast furnace route of iron making from where the product (hot metal) goes to steel melting shops - various kinds there to make steel.

Metallurgical coals are normally  of anthracite nature whereas mostly thermal coals are lignite. You can never make (if technology has changed in last 30 years - I am unsure) coking coal out of lignite coals. Burning metallurgical coal for generating power is a luxury similar to make your BMW 5 series for Uber. You can burn money the way you want, if have plenty.  Coking coal is almost three times the price of thermal coal.

Please do remember metallurgical coal is burnt to form coking coal which is fed into blast furnaces. The strength of coking coal determines the burden strength and bla bla. Let me know digress here.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Metallurgical_coal - frankly I provided the link for better awareness and did not read even what is written in Wikipedia in this instance. It is primarily I was breathing with steel making - all sort for 12 years . Apology if I am sounding arrogant.
Metallurgical coal is determined from fixed carbon (carbon equivalent) .

Other parameters are sulphur, silica  and phosphorous - a good metallurgical coal which has all three of very low value. Then comes strength of coal which is however taken care at coke ovens.

Thermal coal is cheap due to very high sulphur, low fixed carbon and higher value of silica - more gas and more ash.








						The Coal Facts: thermal coal vs. metallurgical coal  | Globalnews.ca
					

While metallurgical coal and thermal coal have similar geologic origins, their commercial markets and industrial uses are vastly different. This piece examines the primary differences between the two forms of coal.




					globalnews.ca
				



If the claim  is for cleaner coal that only comes from lower sulphur and lower silica - to get lower ash. Generally metallurgical coal will be deemed cleaner no matter if produced by WHC or any other company.
Oh yes, we produce best metallurgical coal from Newcastle in Australia. Back days if my memory is still active, Natal in Africa used to produce excellent metallurgical coal. But M/s Google says Australia and China are the largest producers of coking coal








						The Coal Facts: thermal coal vs. metallurgical coal  | Globalnews.ca
					

While metallurgical coal and thermal coal have similar geologic origins, their commercial markets and industrial uses are vastly different. This piece examines the primary differences between the two forms of coal.




					globalnews.ca
				




Returning to WHC - for some reason when it was $2 the experts said buy buy - very low price. some how all brokers hyped WHC which is still  a puzzle to me. Now it is around $1 and the buy sign is continuous. It could be very low price compared to few months back. Chartists can predict better if this is the bottom today.
But in generally world  environmentalists are getting rid of coal fired units - the only solace is metallurgical coal. Would that source meaning China and India would enough to pop coking coal price up and up ??
YAL also makes coal and PE is 3.49 against WHC PE 34.3;
https://www.asx.com.au/asxpdf/20200819/pdf/44lp3vnpdqp72w.pdf - YAL performance 
https://www.asx.com.au/asxpdf/20200826/pdf/44lxfbrc7nthth.pdf - whc performance 
I have had WHC and sold out around $2. Would return to watch purely for making quick money if I can.

*t
	

	
	
		
		

		
		
	


	


*


WHCYALZELNHCERAPRICE1.0802.0102.5601.2900.160MCAP1.08bn2.65bn1.29bn1.05bn590.62mYIELD13.88%15.7%6.32%11.86%-PE RATIO34.8303.490--


----------



## barney (6 October 2020)

Thanks for the experienced insight @Miner   So you are an old chimney sweep eh!!


----------



## Miner (6 October 2020)

barney said:


> Thanks for the experienced insight @Miner   So you are an old chimney sweep eh!!



@barney  - i give you 100/100 for calling me old. But not sure if I call myself a chimney sweep however. Back in uni days we used to call industrial engineering students as chimney , which I was/am  not  {}


----------



## qldfrog (6 October 2020)

finicky said:


> @qldfrog what was purchased @ 1.02, Whitehaven?
> Sorry if I'm obtuse.



Yes, WHC at 1.02 on the 28..
Sorry for the confusion


----------



## qldfrog (6 October 2020)

and for an update in term of bragging: BMA in the Bowen basin (met coal) has the best metallurgical  coal in the world.
When met coal was getting very expensive, from memory, there were trial to use pulverized lower quality coal (aka thermal) in furnaces but i doubt this is still going on.
Met coal is a requirement for steel, so no coal no steel however many windmills and solar panels you have for the energy side.
Most of our production in Australia is met coal, a point fully voluntarily missed by the green brigade
as for WHC shares, I just follow the system


----------



## Dona Ferentes (6 October 2020)

There's an extensive interview in the AFR with CEO Paul Flynn:








						Whitehaven boss strives to find light in coal's tunnel
					

After a tough year, Paul Flynn hopes some pause and reflection will enable the coal miner to earn the right to grow again.




					www.afr.com
				




He is essentially optimistic about the coal price when looking at WHC production statistics; the rally in thermal coal pricing ($US50 to 58) has brought some momentum back, as has the AUD retreating a bit. These two tailwinds have held off any dilutive equity raising that might have been needed to survive the downturn.


> "Our .. position at the time of the .. [August] results was about $470 million in combined liquidity,'' said Flynn. ''Pricing has improved since that time so that just adds further liquidity to the bank, so we feel very good about it. We have said from the beginning we didn't think an equity raising was necessary, and we certainly don't think that now. "I do feel like we have seen the worst of it, I feel like the balance of risks now are to the good rather than to the bad. ''I think the momentum we have carried into this new year is far better than what we carried into last year.''



Flynn has run Whitehaven for almost eight years, and says that after an era of rapid growth, the time had come for Whitehaven to pause and reset before considering any further growth [with management changes, better planning, more focus on process and "execution discipline''[unit costs which have risen 34 per cent over the past four years].


> ''The foundation of the business was smaller assets [which were] easy to manage, but we have openly acknowledged that our future is larger scale, more efficient operations. ''The type of skills you need to manage those smaller operations are vastly different from the ones you need as the scale and complexity of your business grows.''




Flynn expects there will be more consolidation in the Australian coal sector, but vows to remain disciplined and focused on shareholder value. 







> ''We do think our business would be better balanced with a 50/50 split [between thermal coal and coking coal], but we are fortunate with our existing thermal assets that demand is very good.'' he says.



NSW thermal coal assets will be the backbone of Whitehaven's business for the forseeable future, meaning Flynn has little choice but to continue being corporate Australia's loudest advocate for coal's place in a carbon-constrained future. It's a role he is happy to take on, and he welcomes the NSW's government's recent "Future of Coal Statement" and the federal government's declaration in September that carbon capture and storage (CCS) is one of six technologies deemed a priority for investment.  The NSW statement openly speaks of a ''transition away from coal'' to "new energy sources", but notes that the gradual pace of change means the local industry has several decades of life ahead of it.

_One factor that has strained public discourse in Australia over coal's future has been the *disconnect *between cultural ties to developed nations in Europe and business ties to Asia. For every environmentally focused policy reform in Europe, Australian coal miners point to new power stations being built in Asia, where the vast majority of Australian thermal coal is sold._


----------



## Miner (6 October 2020)

Dona Ferentes said:


> There's an extensive interview in the AFR with CEO Paul Flynn:
> 
> 
> 
> ...



BTW Paul has put the money by buying good volume of shares off late.


----------



## Dona Ferentes (6 October 2020)

Miner said:


> BTW Paul has put the money by buying good volume of shares off late.



Probably a sensible pathway; to follow the money. I get the feeling not having that 'dilutative capital raising' that other coal companies were having achieved two outcomes and then buying (assuming that was the sequence); blow -off the shorters, and restore shareholder confidence.


----------



## finicky (18 November 2020)

Up ^7% on firm volume so far today and surely price has now broken out from the most severe downtrend line you could draw?

3 Year Daily


----------



## wayneL (18 November 2020)

I've been dipping my toe into whc along with a few other coal companies. Of course with the benefit of 2020 hindsight I should have bought a whole bunch more.

But what I like to do in the commodity scene is try to find where minimum value might be and the price of thermal coal certainly seems to have fitted this criterion as far as I can see and the last few weeks and months.

Add to that the "on the nose" status of coal itself and I think coal companies offer a pretty good leveraged opportunity on the underlying price of coal.

In my opinion, despite all the green rhetoric, coal-based energy production is not going anywhere anytime soon.

Great opportunity here and in other coal companies in my humble opinion.


----------



## finicky (28 November 2020)

Friday, 27th November 2020

*Which shares excelled?*

"There was a resurgence among coal stocks this week, despite Australian coal exports to China slumping 21% in October. In addition, investors were unperturbed with the fact that there are currently around 80 coal ships stuck off the coast of China amid diplomatic tension between the two nations.

Nonetheless, sentiment was on the up amid the broader rally, and with this sector previously hit hard, the rebound spurred on the likes of *Coronado Global Resources (ASX: CRN)*, *New Hope Corporation (ASX:NHC)*, *Whitehaven Coal (ASX: WHC)* and *Yancoal (ASX: YAL)*."

10 Yr Mthly


----------



## finicky (5 April 2021)

Chart looks excellent imo
Not Held

5 Yr Weekly


----------



## finicky (11 June 2021)

Well soon after my last optimistic posted chart there was a gap down in mid April followed by sustained selling. Excuse was the March Quarterly out on April 15 describing various transient setbacks resulting in a minor downgrade of fy21 guidance. Actual production barely affected but sales affected by freight flow and costs up slightly. Sales guidance down only ~ 4% and the March Qtr achieved superior prices for product and looks like more to come. So the equally sustained recovery makes me suspicious that the price was worked down. Now fwiw my picture is a sloping head and shoulders with break of neckline, so bullish in the medium term but expecting a pullback.

Not Held

Daily


----------



## finicky (3 November 2021)

Following Smurf1976 post on the Coal Stocks thread I had a look at the monthly charts of the few coal stocks I have on a list and most of them put In a bearish October candle. Not the least WHC, which made a bearish 'dark cloud cover' candle in Oct against Sept. Moreover the  negative volume of Oct was highest monthly volume on record. The negativity seems to be kicking on so far in Nov..
Others:
Coronado Global (CRN): not too bad but Oct an inverted hammer which is not auspicious in an uptrend.
New Hope (NHC): Oct high volume bearish engulfing candle, seems to be kicking on
Yancoal (YAL): Oct very high volume inverted hammer.

WHC Monthly


----------



## Trader X (10 February 2022)

Coal futures and spot approaching all time highs again after China's price fixing intervention that caused a temporary dip, yet WHC share price still languishing below $3 and struggling to rally.  The negative sentiment toward coal in general and some flooding in QLD are seemingly the cause of this price underperformance relative to spot and futures?


----------



## finicky (10 February 2022)

Trader X said:


> still languishing below $3 and struggling to rally



You are one hard task master. Less than a year and a half ago this was below $1. 
So guessing it has had to battle stale holders and ST profit takers all the way up. Only 4 months ago it was at overbought level, did a sharp pullback and is now kicking on again. Not much wrong that I can see but admittedly I haven't followed any fundamentals recently.

Weekly


----------



## Trader X (10 February 2022)

finicky said:


> You are one hard task master. Less than a year and a half ago this was below $1.



Perhaps, but then looking at historical data, in July 2018 WHC was trading at high of $6 with coal priced at $120 USD/T.  Then the slide in the coal price began and bottomed at $50/T in Sept 2020.  Today coal is trading at $240/T and WHC is below $3.  So the coal price has doubled from it's 2018 high and WHC's price has halved.  Others factors at play of course but normally price takers rally in line with their commodity prices, not the case with WHC.  Coal is far from dead as an energy source for many years to come but you could be forgiven for thinking that coal producers are not investible.


----------



## finicky (10 February 2022)

Trader X said:


> you could be forgiven for thinking that coal producers are not investible.



I think thermal coal is investible and if you look back one or two pages we were discussing WHC from July- Oct when it was bottoming. Isn't WHC producing a mix of thermal and met? My point is mostly about sentiment - WHC has climbed out of a trough of terrible sentiment and a lot must feel burnt and have lost interest for good, the SP chart looks ok to me.

Not Held


----------



## divs4ever (11 February 2022)

Trader X said:


> Perhaps, but then looking at historical data, in July 2018 WHC was trading at high of $6 with coal priced at $120 USD/T.  Then the slide in the coal price began and bottomed at $50/T in Sept 2020.  Today coal is trading at $240/T and WHC is below $3.  So the coal price has doubled from it's 2018 high and WHC's price has halved.  Others factors at play of course but normally price takers rally in line with their commodity prices, not the case with WHC.  Coal is far from dead as an energy source for many years to come but you could be forgiven for thinking that coal producers are not investible.
> 
> View attachment 137332



  has been a bumpy ride for me here   , first buying in November  2013 ( @ $1.555 )  reduced in August 2017 ( @ $3.55 ) ,  added extra in August 2020 ( @ $1.29 )   reduced in October  2021 ( @ $3.55 )

 now the price might be going nowhere in the last 7 years  and the divs are a bit hit or miss 


DIVIDEND TYPEDIVIDEND AMOUNT ($)FRANKEDEX-DIV DATEPAY DATE*Interim*0.0150.00%27/02/202006/03/2020*Final*0.30021.00%05/09/201919/09/2019*Interim*0.2000.00%25/02/201906/03/2019*Final*0.2700.00%04/09/201813/09/2018*Interim*0.1300.00%23/02/201802/03/2018*Final*0.0600.00%10/11/201728/11/2017*Final*0.030100.00%11/09/201228/09/2012*Interim*0.500100.00%19/04/201204/05/2012

 but currently the ( investment ) cash risk is zero  and am up ( theoretically  ) more than 100% ( on the running profits )

 one of those shares that benefited from  a little extra effort 

 DYOR


----------



## Trader X (14 February 2022)

UBS has decided to take an initial substantial holder stake in WHC, along with some short covering perhaps, WHC has popped 6% today.  Some institutional support for a significantly undervalued company based on current coal prices. Interesting development.
Form 603


----------



## Rabbithop (14 February 2022)

Trader X said:


> UBS has decided to take an initial substantial holder stake in WHC, along with some short covering perhaps, WHC has popped 6% today.  Some institutional support for a significantly undervalued company based on current coal prices. Interesting development.
> Form 603



Lets hope so. I do own a small stake with fingers cross. Anyway its good to see the share price rise today.


----------



## Sean K (3 March 2022)

Coal companies going nuts thanks to Russia. This could go on for a while.


----------



## Rabbithop (3 March 2022)

Sold my parcel with profits before Ex div dates. Profit is better than wld be div receive. Still keeping it on my watchlist.
Due to the war n China news..she is looking to buy more iron ore fr overseas...keeping my eyes on BHP price.


----------



## finicky (7 March 2022)

Gapped up again today -  closed 4.18.


----------



## bk1 (7 March 2022)

on heavy volume too, and just about to commence a share buy back scheme..


----------



## divs4ever (1 April 2022)

Whitehaven Coal today welcomed the decision of the Independent Planning Commission NSW (IPC) to approve the
Narrabri Stage 3 Extension Project (Project).
The Project extends the life of the Narrabri Underground Mine, which has been operating successfully since 2012, from
2031 to 2044.
NSW Independent Planning Commission approves Narrabri Stage 3 Extension Project​
Among other things, the Project is forecast to deliver:
 a $599 million additional net economic benefit to NSW
 the continuation of 500 skilled jobs for a further decade; and
 $317 million of direct wages into the local community to 2044 (NPV basis).
Whitehaven Coal Managing Director and CEO Paul Flynn said today’s approval was a great outcome for the company and
the hundreds of employees working at the mine.
“Big investments like Narrabri Stage 3 are about lives and livelihoods and it’s no surprise the majority of submissions from
the local area and wider region supported the proposal, as the IPC itself acknowledged.
“While today is a great result for Whitehaven, it’s fantastic for the Narrabri region too – last financial year Whitehaven
spent nearly $50 million with around 81 suppliers based in the Narrabri LGA”, Mr Flynn said.
Whitehaven notes today’s approval is subject to the company meeting a range of conditions imposed by the IPC. The
company further notes that IPC conditioning in relation to CO2 emissions aligns with its intention to reduce CO2 emissions
at the mine over time together with the implementation of emissions mitigation technology and measures. 


======================================================================================================

 DYOR

 i hold WHC ( ' free-carried' ) ( has been a nice 'channel-trade ' for the patient )


----------



## finicky (20 April 2022)

Fantastic Quarter - production well up on Dec Qtr and improved on pcp. Record average price achieved *A$315/t (pcp $101/t).* Fy22 guidance maintained.

"After buying back $67 million of shares and paying 
$80 million in dividends in March, WHC is $161 million
net cash at 19 April 2022"

Not Held


----------



## divs4ever (5 July 2022)

Narrabri Stage 3 Legal Proceedings
Whitehaven Coal Limited (ASX:WHC) has been notified that a client of the Environmental Defenders Office (EDO), a probono law firm, has commenced judicial review proceedings in the NSW Land and Environment Court in respect of the
State Significant Development Consent (Consent) which was granted for the Narrabri Stage 3 Extension Project by the
NSW Independent Planning Commission (IPC) on 1 April 2022.
The proceedings are seeking to invalidate the Consent on climate change related grounds. The EDO's client in the
proceedings is the Bushfire Survivors for Climate Action Incorporated.
Whitehaven notes the following:
 The IPC, in approving the Stage 3 Extension Project, conducted a comprehensive assessment and evaluation
process which included consideration of 1,775 submissions from relevant stakeholders. Roughly one-third of
these submissions addressed the issue of climate change.
 The IPC panel comprised three experienced commissioners, being Professor O'Kane, Professor Fell and
Professor Barlow. The panel was assisted at the public hearing and in its assessment process by an
experienced senior counsel.
 In its Statement of Reasons for Decision, the IPC said it had considered all emissions associated with the
Project (including Scope 3 emissions) in its assessment and determination.
 The IPC's reasons for finding that the Stage 3 Extension Project should be approved subject to stringent
conditions of consent included that "GHG emissions for the Project have been adequately estimated and are
permissible in context of the current climate change policy framework".
High quality thermal coal has an important role to play in providing energy security during the decarbonisation transition.
Whitehaven intends to vigorously defend the proceedings.

===================================================================================

DYOR

i hold WHC ( ' free-carried' ) ( has been a nice 'channel-trade ' for the patient )

another buying opportunity ?? probably not but will watch just in case


----------



## bk1 (18 July 2022)

WHC with a market cap of $5B expects FY22 EBITDA of $3B.
June quarter equity sales of produced coal was up 23%.
Tight supply forecast for FY 22 and FY23.


----------



## Country Lad (18 July 2022)

bk1 said:


> Tight supply forecast for FY 22 and FY23.



Even tighter if the Chinese are in fact looking for more coal if Bloomberg is correct.


----------



## Rabbithop (18 July 2022)

Country Lad said:


> Even tighter if the Chinese are in fact looking for more coal if Bloomberg is correct.



In my humble opinion. Regardless what pple bagged about coal n pollution, I have always maintain there is a place for Coal in our life. 
In  some countries eg China, India etc, there are pple living in remote country villages that need Coal for heating, cooking in their daily living. I am not a holder currently but had been.


----------



## finicky (18 July 2022)

Lol, this is starting to sicken me.
Not Held

*Whitehaven Earnings are just Staggering*

*Whitehaven Coal pulled in a whopping $514/t on its coal sales in the June quarter*
*High energy prices have seen Whitehaven’s unaudited EBITDA climb from $200 million in FY21 to $3 billion in FY22*
*Coal prices are expected to remain strong as energy security becomes a bigger issue than any time since the 70s oil crisis*
The ASX’s most watched pure play coal stock Whitehaven Coal (ASX:WHC) is poised to bag a 15 times rise in earnings for FY22 to $3 billion as coal prices exploded in the June quarter.









						Ground Breakers: Whitehaven earnings are... just... staggering - Stockhead
					

Whitehaven coal could rake in $3 billion in earnings with few signs pointing to relief in thermal coal prices amid a major energy shortage.




					stockhead.com.au


----------



## divs4ever (18 July 2022)

so i guess  , what you are trying to tell me is , 

 don't hold my breath  waiting for WHC to come down below $1.40  , so i can add to my holdings 

 sadly my NHC  is the bigger holding  ( but that is up nearly 100% currently as well )


----------



## Sean K (19 August 2022)

Woop woop. Coal is dead.


----------



## divs4ever (19 August 2022)

Sean K said:


> Woop woop. Coal is dead.
> 
> View attachment 145654



 long live the king ( coal )


----------



## Sean K (24 August 2022)

I start to feel uncomfortable when things go parabolic. Coal seems to be the uranium of the late naughties.


----------



## divs4ever (24 August 2022)

yes  , decisions  , decisions 

 i have  two cycles of this buy when cheap  ( and rescue the cash investment )   so either way ( 'free-carried' or the average buying price of $1.395 ) it starts to look sensible to take some profit off the table 

 do i wait for the divs.  or reduce the load now ??

Morningstar™ Consensus​Morningstar Consensus

CURRENT20222023EPS ($)-0.091.952.87DPS ($)0.000.531.20Franking0.00----Full Recommendation
Goldman Sachs​Goldman Sachs

06/2106/22E06/23E06/24EEPS ($)-0.081.892.451.34DPS ($)0.000.470.840.67Full Recommendation


----------



## divs4ever (24 August 2022)

i notice JP Morgan  has reduced it's interest  in  WHC recently 

Ordinary 75,328,247 7.88%    => 64,306,391 6.72%

 were they 'investment shares ' ( held by an investor '  ) or trading shares ( earmarked to be lent out ) that were reduced  , because JP has certainly been lending some out


----------



## Sean K (7 October 2022)

This is quite impressive. When does the music stop for coal? Couldn't just keep going forever, could it?


----------



## divs4ever (7 October 2022)

i reduced my WHC holding yesterday  , but inflation has been an additional tailwind currently 

will China increase the manufacture of war machines  that would be a big tailwind for coal and iron 

 forever ?  send me a message by seance  there is a reduced chance i will be alive in 10 years time  ( much less than 50% )


----------



## finicky (7 October 2022)

^^ Don't worry about it.
Rewind the clock: I take 5% out windfall profit in CHN and risk ploughing it into WHC when nobody wants to invest in coal but the charts of the producers are showing green shoots. But no, because I'm not contrarian and I was risk averse at the time 🧑‍🦯❄️🛌


----------



## divs4ever (7 October 2022)

i bought some in November 2013  ( $1.555 ) , i bought some more  in August 2020 ( $1.29 ), and despite my opinion of their policies , the Greens have done me a big favor  , 

 now yesterday i was a little bit risk averse   ( and reduced $1 early )


----------



## rcw1 (24 November 2022)

Good afternoon,
Whitehaven Coal down 6.03% after disclosing that its chief executive Paul Flynn sold 900,000 shares for nearly $8m this week for "personal reasons"....  The lad still holds a substantial stake in WHC.  
Opened at $9.67.  SP hit $8.80 low.  Missed the trade on this one. ):  Still might be on, but don't think so today, for mine.

Kind regards
rcw1


----------



## Rabbithop (24 November 2022)

rcw1 said:


> Good afternoon,
> Whitehaven Coal down 6.03% after disclosing that its chief executive Paul Flynn sold 900,000 shares for nearly $8m this week for "personal reasons"....  The lad still holds a substantial stake in WHC.
> Opened at $9.67.  SP hit $8.80 low.  Missed the trade on this one. ):  Still might be on, but don't think so today, for mine.
> 
> ...



I exited at yesterday's near high, needing money n regretted it early this am with sp kept up, then it changed to below 9 at closing time


----------



## rcw1 (24 November 2022)

Rabbithop said:


> I exited at yesterday's near high, needing money n regretted it early this am with sp kept up, then it changed to below 9 at closing time



Good evening Rabbithop,
Might have another go at it tomorrow see what it looks like then.  Still plenty of sellers queued ...

Good on you for getting some coin back into your side of ledger yesterday.   Certainly, been some gains this week in SP.

Note today (24/11/22) during the adjust 4.23pm and adjust on at 5.22pm parcels of 146 318 shares at $9.67 traded from the CXA.   Single priced auction was $8.98!!!   ha ha ha ha ha ha ha...  What hope do we have?  Red hot they are.

Did you end up finishing your refurb??

Kind regards
rcw1


----------



## Rabbithop (24 November 2022)

rcw1 said:


> Good evening Rabbithop,
> Might have another go at it tomorrow see what it looks like then.  Still plenty of sellers queued ...
> 
> Good on you for getting some coin back into your side of ledger yesterday.   Certainly, been some gains this week in SP.
> ...



Good evening mate. I think you will get 9.50plus. Yes, completed 2 new bathrooms with baths upstairs n the powder room downstairs. Also a totally new kitchen with Stone bench top n splash back. It's great to relax in a 'new' home. It costs a pricey 88k. Workmen Jack up labour n materials prices citing Covid restrictions, AusChina business sanctions etc etc. Anyway it needed doing.


----------



## finicky (3 December 2022)

Henry Jennings 'Stock Ideas' from a couple of days ago. The winners and losers of 2022 are ranked. Most of the winners have been energy related. I feel WHC was the one that got away, it's been painful to watch, but I guess everyone has stories like that. He also hazards some predictions for 2023 - which I know aren't relevant to WHC. 






First off obviously, lithium and coal stocks have been the stand outs. Energy. The top stocks are all energy stocks. In fact, in the top 20, there is only 2 stocks that have no energy exposure. AMP (I know that is hard to believe) and CPU. Maybe PRU (although gold miners have been hit by rising energy costs) but even IPL has the energy exposure with fertiliser process linked to gas prices.


----------



## Rabbithop (3 December 2022)

finicky said:


> Henry Jennings 'Stock Ideas' from a couple of days ago. The winners and losers of 2022 are ranked. Most of the winners have been energy related. I feel WHC was the one that got away, it's been painful to watch, but I guess everyone has stories like that. He also hazards some predictions for 2023 - which I know aren't relevant to WHC.
> 
> View attachment 150033
> 
> ...



Thanks finicky for that list. Phew! It gives me shivers down my spine when I see the losers..just glad I didnt touch a few of those top 5 stocks.


----------



## divs4ever (3 December 2022)

according to the list i did fairly well 

of the 'losers ' i hold RMS , ( probably should have bought more on the way down ) ,  CCP ( 'free-carried' ) and ABC  ( still looking to add a few more ' )

of the gainers  , i hold  , WHC ( 'free-carried , seems to be a nice channel trade for the patient ) , NHC ( probably should have taken some profit/investment cash ) , WDS ( added to courtesy of the BHP spin-off ) , MIN ( free-carried ) , WOR ,  and BPT ( 'free-carried' )

 i am surprised Henry  omitted  his previous favorite GRR  from the list  ( i hold GRR  )


GRRGRANGE RESOURCES. ORDINARY
Change







Balance DateDividend TypeCents per shareCcyFranked %Ex-Dividend DateBooks Close DatePay Date30/06/2022Interim2.000AUD100.0013/09/202214/09/202230/09/202231/12/2021Final10.000AUD100.0011/03/202214/03/202229/03/202230/06/2021Special10.000AUD100.0015/12/202116/12/202129/12/202130/06/2021Interim2.000AUD100.0013/09/202114/09/202130/09/202131/12/2020Final2.000AUD100.0012/03/202115/03/202130/03/202130/06/2020Interim1.000AUD100.0011/09/202014/09/202030/09/202031/12/2019Final1.000AUD100.0013/03/202016/03/202030/03/202030/06/2019Interim1.000AUD100.0010/09/201911/09/201927/09/201931/12/2018Final1.000AUD100.0014/03/201915/03/201929/03/201930/06/2018Interim1.000AUD100.0011/09/201812/09/201826/09/2018

 quite a nice return on my 20.3 cent average price  . , i will probably regret  not taking the investment cash off the table , later on 

 one danger i see under-mentioned is the de-industrialization of the EU/UK

 this seems to be the Asian decade ( to my eyes )

 BTW India is part of Asia  in my Geography book


----------



## finicky (3 December 2022)

Thanks for confiding all that divs .. 😬
Your unremitting relentless record of success means a lot to me.

Not Held


----------



## divs4ever (3 December 2022)

finicky said:


> Thanks for confiding all that divs .. 😬
> Your unremitting relentless record of success means a lot to me.
> 
> Not Held



 don't you worry   i have my share of failures as well  , one reason i am very cynical  on 'green technology ' -  i have an impressive array off 100% and 99.9% losses  in that  particular area   ( including CCE , RFX and WEC and they are the ones still trading  )

 and plenty of losses elsewhere   but one ten bagger can offset  8 wipe-outs  

 the intriguing  lesson  i have gained  , is how unloved some 10-baggers ( for me )  still are 

 stocks like APE , JYC , TNE , ( PME is starting to get a few fans  only up 36,000%  for me )

 WHC is only up 600%  for me


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## finicky (31 December 2022)

Here's Commsec's list of top10 ASX200 winners and losers for 2020. Differs a little from the Marcus Padley list which jumped the gun weeks ago.
*Top 3 are coal stocks*, who in the world would have picked it? A real contrarian that's who. We discussed it here at the bottom and noone said WHC has got to be a reasonable buy at these prices while making money, screw the CCP embargo on Australian products. I'm not getting over this.
And off topic who would have thought ARB Corp would be in the worst 10? A real contrarian maybe.


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## finicky (31 December 2022)

Actually I've reviewed a few posts and it looks like wayneL clearly called it and was "dipping a toe in" around the bottom.


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## divs4ever (31 December 2022)

finicky said:


> Here's Commsec's list of top10 ASX200 winners and losers for 2020. Differs a little from the Marcus Padley list which jumped the gun weeks ago.
> *Top 3 are coal stocks*, who in the world would have picked it? A real contrarian that's who. We discussed it here at the bottom and noone said WHC has got to be a reasonable buy at these prices while making money, screw the CCP embargo on Australian products. I'm not getting over this.
> And off topic who would have thought ARB Corp would be in the worst 10? A real contrarian maybe.
> 
> View attachment 151105



 well of the top risers , 

 i hold WHC ( 'free-carried' )

NHC

 WDS 

WOR

MND

and MIN ( 'free-carried ')

 and somehow  avoided all the ten on the other list 

 apparently all my 'smelly mutts ' were evicted from the to 200 ( so couldn't be listed )


 could be really educational in the coming year  , 

 good luck everyone


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