# Thoughts on this pattern?



## darkhorse70 (15 February 2015)

Lately on NT I've been trying to take advantage of this pattern. The replay button starts off at 4pm, the markets range usually at the beginning, there is a breakout, it finds a bottom then pulls all the way back into that trading range, sometimes just below it or sometimes above it.

The trading date has been close to the last month and it could be because the sp500 is sort of in a range hence why the pattern is showing up frequently at the open (4pm?).

The problem is when there is a false breakout, sometimes the signal bar is very wide and the entry is too risky or in the other case its a huge momentum break out and you get chopped. After a few hours, ranges are established all over the place and its hard to tell where the target is and i find i get hammered. Only very reliable at the open so far.

Either way i was wondering if any one trades this sort of style or if any one has any thoughts or opinions about this setup being viable etc?

I apologize if the pic is too small.

By the way its the emini sp500.


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## ThingyMajiggy (15 February 2015)

darkhorse70 said:


> View attachment 61574
> 
> 
> Lately on NT I've been trying to take advantage of this pattern. The replay button starts off at 4pm, the markets range usually at the beginning, there is a breakout, it finds a bottom then pulls all the way back into that trading range, sometimes just below it or sometimes above it.
> ...




Just a heads up, rather than taking a screen shot of a dual monitor setup, right click on your chart > Image > Save As


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## tech/a (15 February 2015)

See chart Click to expand.

Always easy in hind-site.
Very common happening at opens---much easier to read on the DAX.

*CLICK TO EXPAND*


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## darkhorse70 (15 February 2015)

Thanks thingy, I should of thought of that.

Thanks for the explanation John. Ill print that out and stick it on my wall. The big players swing one way, flush everyone out, then go the other way. Feels like a million upper cuts to the chin some times haha.


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## darkhorse70 (15 February 2015)

Sorry john, I dont have the 2min chart of this. Is there a way to view both on NT simultaneously?  

I swapped over to the 5min chart after the 1 min chart became to overwhelming.


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## ThingyMajiggy (15 February 2015)

darkhorse70 said:


> Sorry john, I dont have the 2min chart of this. Is there a way to view both on NT simultaneously?
> 
> I swapped over to the 5min chart after the 1 min chart became to overwhelming.




What the? If you can view this data on replay you can look at it in 2min, so just get to the same point you took the screenshot but just have a 2m chart instead of a 5m and take another screenshot? And to have multiple timeframes open, just open another chart of the same instrument and set it to 2m, then put it next to your 5m??????


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## darkhorse70 (15 February 2015)

lol I didnt think of going back to the same time and swapping over to a 2min chart. Wheres my common sense these days.

I might be able to open to charts on diff time frames. Ill give it a shot in 20mins. Thanks thingy


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## burglar (15 February 2015)

@darkhorse70

given you have come across John's ID by accident or other, please don't blow his cover!


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## darkhorse70 (15 February 2015)

Burglar, hes ID is in nick radges book Plus a few other places. But your point is taken.


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## darkhorse70 (15 February 2015)

By the way I got the 2min plus 5min chart up simultaneously,  cheers. Also tech ill get the 2min up tomorroe morning. However I can see how it would help entries to use a smaller time frame.


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## fiftyeight (16 February 2015)

At (1), what made you think it was short coverings and not the smart money establishing initial position? And I am sure it is important but why does it matter who is buying?


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## tech/a (16 February 2015)

fiftyeight said:


> At (1), what made you think it was short coverings and not the smart money establishing initial position? And I am sure it is important but why does it matter who is buying?




Mid term holders balance on open.
Smartest money buys as price falls.
Holds it up when positioned.
Once selling is reduced price rises easily.


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## darkhorse70 (16 February 2015)

These are the scenarios that have me scratching my head. It looked like something was supporting those 3 bottoms, absorbing the supply. Then later on it just plummets way past it. 

Thoughts tech?


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## darkhorse70 (16 February 2015)

Although i dont have the sp500 open as i dont want to be bias about my decision making if i accidentally get a glimpse of the days action. Could be some sort of major resistance?


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## darkhorse70 (16 February 2015)

I guess on a larger time scale, that move was very small?


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## darkhorse70 (16 February 2015)

And this is the 2min time frame of the first pattern.


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## tech/a (16 February 2015)

darkhorse70 said:


> View attachment 61579
> 
> 
> These are the scenarios that have me scratching my head. It looked like something was supporting those 3 bottoms, absorbing the supply. Then later on it just plummets way past it.
> ...




I note that the volume compared to average volume is bugger all.
The bigger the volume the better the signals.
Support in a 2 min chart is almost zero.
You need to find support/Resistance which is more meaning full.
Longer time frames or much greater volume.
There are some key bars on some of the charts
I'll point them out.


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## darkhorse70 (16 February 2015)

Thanks tech. The last bar where all the immediate supply was absorbed is interesting. I always presumed that was a negative sign if it closed lower but you make an excellent point about it absorbing overhanging supply removing resistance.

Thanks


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## darkhorse70 (16 February 2015)

When i use to look for setups on stocks, i had much more discipline/patience. The futures is so tempting. At every corner you try to prove that your smarter than the market. I have to relax and wait for good setups instead of jumping at it every second.


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## darkhorse70 (16 February 2015)

Hey tech, i took the buy signal at the first circle (19:00) . After an increase in volume, it looked like something absorbed the supply. I figured like your other example something absorbed the over hanging supply and maybe it would remove any resistance up. However for some reason nuthing kept happening and eventually after a third bottom at 00:30 volume started peaking then it shot off into space. I sol out after once the volume started decreasing. 

Thoughts?


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## Wysiwyg (16 February 2015)

darkhorse70 said:


> View attachment 61574
> 
> 
> Lately on NT I've been trying to take advantage of this pattern. The replay button starts off at 4pm, the markets range usually at the beginning, there is a breakout, *it finds a bottom* then pulls all the way back into that trading range, sometimes just below it or sometimes above it.



Patterns repeat. Does the market range "usually" at the beginning or just on few times that you watched it?  "It finds a bottom'  is the likely scenario in all time frames for any given period. Is this bottom identifiable? 



> The problem is when there is a false breakout, sometimes the signal bar is very wide and the entry is too risky or in the other case its a huge momentum break out and you get chopped.



There is no problem, that is no pattern.


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## darkhorse70 (17 February 2015)

Wysi, i guess it ranged on a few occasions at the beginning that Ive experienced. I guess the overall market trend has a big role on that. If the market is stuck in a tight range on the bigger scale then i guess the opens could be more range bound with greater false breakouts etc.

I guess experience + exposure is the best thing to give me more perspective and clarity.

Now for a morning sim run with coffee and breakfast haha.


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## darkhorse70 (20 February 2015)

The last couple of days, my results have greatly improved. It feels like one of those light bulb moments. My win/loss ratio has vastly increased. I feel much less nervous and my game plan feels more clear.

Would any one care to critique this photo above of my sim run. I haven't focused on the trend or patterns. Just whats happening with the bids/offers.


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## darkhorse70 (20 February 2015)

I sometimes take profits to quick though.


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