# Help with trade gone wrong!



## jonojpsg (19 February 2010)

Just thought I'd pop this one up as it has had a direct impact on a trade I took this morning and wanted to get people's thoughts on it.

With a 25 bp lift from 0.5 to 0.75% for emergency loans, what do people think the impact will be over the coming days?  

The trade I took was on the Hang Seng as I thought (damn I hate it when I try and predict things!!) it would jump when Hong Kong opened today following a reasonable lead from the Dow.  Obviously the opposite happened when the Fed moved after the close, which was about...5 minutes after I opened my position

I know my lesson needs to be - wait until after the close and posible post-market announcements before making trades like this.

Basically my position is now, I can either close out and take the loss, or hold and see what happens over the course of the day.  If it continues to move against me, I close.  If it comes back, I hold.  A reasonable decision making process??


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## Trembling Hand (19 February 2010)

*Re: FED raises emergency rates*

What did you use to trade the HSI while its shut? CFDs?


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## jonojpsg (19 February 2010)

*Re: FED raises emergency rates*



Trembling Hand said:


> What did you use to trade the HSI while its shut? CFDs?




Yep - IG Markets.

Still holding atm.


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## ThingyMajiggy (19 February 2010)

*Re: FED raises emergency rates*

How does that work? How can you trade a CFD of something that is shut? Wheres the price coming from?


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## Trembling Hand (19 February 2010)

*Re: FED raises emergency rates*



jonojpsg said:


> Yep - IG Markets.
> 
> Still holding atm.




Why trade a synthetic of a synthetic???????

No doubt its got a spread of 50 ticks or the like?


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## Wysiwyg (19 February 2010)

*Re: FED raises emergency rates*

IG has the HS42 closed for 1/2 hour every trading day.

Which is in a freefall at the moment. + 300 points

Spread of 12 points during this turbulence.


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## Trembling Hand (19 February 2010)

*Re: FED raises emergency rates*



Wysiwyg said:


> IG has the HS42 closed for 1/2 hour every trading day.




lol I bet they do.


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## Wysiwyg (19 February 2010)

*Re: FED raises emergency rates*



Trembling Hand said:


> lol I bet they do.


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## Trembling Hand (19 February 2010)

*Re: FED raises emergency rates*



Wysiwyg said:


>




There is no overnight Hang Seng market. They are making the prices up from god knows what. Why would you trade something that does not exist??

The reason why is - see the first post,



> The trade I took was on the Hang Seng as I thought it would jump when Hong Kong opened today following a reasonable lead from the Dow




You couldn't find a more perfect example of taking a position where the other side has all the control, right down to the actual price they wish to set.


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## Wysiwyg (19 February 2010)

*Re: FED raises emergency rates*



Wysiwyg said:


> Which is in a freefall at the moment. + 300 points




More freefall ... lordy lordy .



> You couldn't find a more perfect example of taking a position where the other side has all the control, right down to the actual price they wish to set.



Agree.


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## Trembling Hand (19 February 2010)

*Re: FED raises emergency rates*

Jono how many points over yesterdays close did you buy in at?


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## jonojpsg (19 February 2010)

*Re: FED raises emergency rates*



Trembling Hand said:


> Jono how many points over yesterdays close did you buy in at?




Bought at 20475 which from was 85 points up from close.  I figured that was reasonable given the rise on Wall St, thought we'd see approx 150pt gain for the day.  Shows how wrong I was

Tell the truth I based it on a similar trade from 17th, when I saw that the HS42 was only showing about a 100pt gain (approx 0.5%) at 12pm before HK open when the Dow had risen 2%ish and Oz was up similar.  I jumped on and sure enough as soon as HK opened the CFD shot up 200pts from where I bought it.

Damn Fed had to choose today to raise rates

And to make it even worse ( I continue to amaze myself at how stupid I can be) I am still holding the trade  Oh well, will keep you all updated on how much I lose

Thanks for the comment TH and Wys


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## Timmy (19 February 2010)

*Re: FED raises emergency rates*

Did you / do you have a stop loss level?  (And has it moved since opening the trade?)


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## Trembling Hand (19 February 2010)

*Re: FED raises emergency rates*

Jono these trades, buy overnight because US is up, are just rubbish. You have no control over the loss when the actual market gaps. And mostly if its an overnight instrument they have already priced in the move. Low probability punt in my books.

Then you have made it worst by taking a trade for a reason, that is the US is up, but then when it reversed and completely removed your reason for being in the trade in the first place you have still held?


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## jonojpsg (19 February 2010)

*Re: FED raises emergency rates*



Trembling Hand said:


> Jono these trades, buy overnight because US is up, are just rubbish. You have no control over the loss when the actual market gaps. And mostly if its an overnight instrument they have already priced in the move. Low probability punt in my books.
> 
> Then you have made it worst by taking a trade for a reason, that is the US is up, but then when it reversed and completely removed your reason for being in the trade in the first place you have still held?




I know, I know, exactly what I have been bashing myself over the head with all day 

And Timmy, yep I had a stop loss when I took out the trade (20405) which for some inexplicable reason that I think has something to do with a brain malfunction (or maybe some deep buried gambling urge that makes me think I can beat the system), I removed 

I really am trying to become a better trader, but sometimes I think I'd be better off cashing out and simply spending more time riding my bike


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## Trembling Hand (19 February 2010)

*Re: FED raises emergency rates*



jonojpsg said:


> I know, I know, exactly what I have been bashing myself over the head with all day
> 
> I really am trying to become a better trader, but sometimes I think I'd be better off cashing out and simply spending more time riding my bike





Your stop loss is now a SPEW stop. You will dumb it just before you spew up from worry, distress & disgust.

Not pretty.

:crap:


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## Wysiwyg (19 February 2010)

*Re: FED raises emergency rates*



jonojpsg said:


> I know, I know, exactly what I have been bashing myself over the head with all day
> I really am trying to become a better trader, but sometimes I think I'd be better off cashing out and simply spending more time riding my bike



I'm growing the opposite way. Today I closed a position that had flopped around below my entry and above my stop loss. Hindsight had proven the trade entry was crap and the HSI tanking was enough to let it go. Hope is a lonely word. Next!!!!


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## Trembling Hand (19 February 2010)

*Re: FED raises emergency rates*

Just to add a little spice to the mix. Its looks like it will gap down again.


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## jonojpsg (19 February 2010)

*Re: FED raises emergency rates*

What I should have done was stick to my stop and go short straight after it was triggered - was a pretty strong move down and would have more than made up for my initial loss on the long.

Hindsight hey

Man I hate gaps!!


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## Wysiwyg (19 February 2010)

*Re: FED raises emergency rates*



jonojpsg said:


> What I should have done was stick to my stop and go short straight after it was triggered - was a pretty strong move down and would have more than made up for my initial loss on the long.
> 
> Hindsight hey
> 
> Man I hate gaps!!




But you don't have a written plan to do A if B happens (or any trade plan). Hence your predicament. I have done worse than this a few times because I didn't learn the first few times. Don't look back at what could have been. Plan forward.


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## Timmy (20 February 2010)

*Re: FED raises emergency rates*

Jono - can you give us some good news?


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## jonojpsg (20 February 2010)

*Re: FED raises emergency rates*



Timmy said:


> Jono - can you give us some good news?




Well, as I kind of expected, the move down ( at one stage 600+ pts) was overdone and the CFD closed for the weekend at 20054, which is still way down on my buy in, but less worry, distress and disgust to think about over the weekend now

I have learnt though - always stick to my stop loss, avoid trading low probability setups, and never trade sensitive trades when I can't watch eveything as it happens.

Thanks again TH, Timmy, Wys for your input 

Now, just to show that I can't help myself, my prediction for the HSI Monday is a 200+ pt jump...my bad


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## jonojpsg (22 February 2010)

*Re: FED raises emergency rates*



jonojpsg said:


> Well, as I kind of expected, the move down ( at one stage 600+ pts) was overdone and the CFD closed for the weekend at 20054, which is still way down on my buy in, but less worry, distress and disgust to think about over the weekend now
> 
> I have learnt though - always stick to my stop loss, avoid trading low probability setups, and never trade sensitive trades when I can't watch eveything as it happens.
> 
> ...




And jono breathes a big sigh of relief as his much hoped for prediction is well and truly borne out - HS42 currently around 20350.

Note that this still leaves me over 100pts down on my buy in point - now, do I set a new stop loss at -150-200pts and take what comes?


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## Trembling Hand (22 February 2010)

*Re: FED raises emergency rates*



jonojpsg said:


> Note that this still leaves me over 100pts down on my buy in point - now, do I set a new stop loss at -150-200pts and take what comes?




Are you still in the trade?


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## skyQuake (22 February 2010)

*Re: FED raises emergency rates*

Well this is the hang seng and there was a time where you could be 600pts offside and come back breakeven.

But what about the times that it continues running a few thousand points? There was a week in 08 that saw basically a 5000pt downmove in 5 days. Sure it was 'oversold' but what can you do about it?


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## jonojpsg (22 February 2010)

*Re: FED raises emergency rates*



skyQuake said:


> Well this is the hang seng and there was a time where you could be 600pts offside and come back breakeven.
> 
> But what about the times that it continues running a few thousand points? There was a week in 08 that saw basically a 5000pt downmove in 5 days. Sure it was 'oversold' but what can you do about it?




skyQuake that is NOT what I want to be hearing right now!!  Agreed though, if it had kept running I was STUFFED, wouldn't have been able to sleep if it had gapped down again as TH suggested

Given the current situation globally though, I am of the opinion (dangerous I know) that the current move up will continue for the short term.  Obviously the major danger that I can see is China's data taking a turn for the worse as stimulus comes out of the system, and that really is a big worry

Am still in the trade though, and looking for a target of around 20600 (see attached screen dump of some lines drawn on a chart).


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## Trembling Hand (22 February 2010)

*Re: FED raises emergency rates*

So let me see. You take a trade on this idea,







jonojpsg said:


> The trade I took was on the Hang Seng as I thought it would jump when Hong Kong opened today following a reasonable lead from the Dow.




Then you pulled your stop because it was going to be hit!!



jonojpsg said:


> And Timmy, yep I had a stop loss when I took out the trade (20405) which for some inexplicable reason that I think has something to do with a brain malfunction (or maybe some deep buried gambling urge that makes me think I can beat the system), I removed



And held off side for 600 odd points

And,



jonojpsg said:


> Given the current situation globally though, I am of the opinion that the current move up will continue for the short term.  Obviously the major danger that I can see is China's data taking a turn for the worse as stimulus comes out of the system, and that really is a big worry




Now you are talking about global macro reasons to hold for what seems like a much longer period than what you entered it for only on Friday morning.

And the only danger you see is "China's data taking a turn for the worse as stimulus comes out of the system"



jonojpsg said:


> Am still in the trade though, and looking for a target of around 20600 (see attached screen dump of some lines drawn on a chart).




So target is 125 above your entry yet you held on 600 points offside?????

lol this has the making of a classic thread.


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## Timmy (23 February 2010)

*Re: FED raises emergency rates*

What TH said, especially this:


Trembling Hand said:


> by taking a trade for a reason, that is the US is up, but then when it reversed and completely removed your reason for being in the trade in the first place you have still held?




Also, Jono, nothing wrong with a bit of luck from time-to-time, and you'll agree its not a good basis for a trading plan/philosophy.   You got a "Get Out of Jail Free" card, don't expect too many.  At the very least stick to your stop now.


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## brty (23 February 2010)

Jono,

In another thread you claim to have a high IQ, with that brainpower I suggest you use it here and spoil TH's amusement.

A few dollars here and there is immaterial. Close the trade and study it and yourself during the trading of this position. Work out what you should be doing and stick to it, or change the way you do things until you have a plan that you can stick to.

Here are some questions to ask yourself...

What is the overall performance of my method when I pull the stop everytime it gets hit?? 

Does pulling the stop enhance performance when the market turns to go in the original direction and of course is the only time one should/would do it?? 

Is trading just another form of gambling, game of chance??

Does my engineering background mean that I have an undying belief that I should be right in my choices of trade, after working out the mathematics of the trade??

Why am I trading??

brty


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## jonojpsg (23 February 2010)

Thanks for the feedback all

I think my main problem is one of laziness.  I keep intending to trade rigorously with attention to detail, technical signals, position sizing, etc. and then get lazy and omit some or all of the above.

I will take your input brty and try and make this a lesson that I will actually learn from

BTW TH can you help me out with why the HS decided to run some 300pts in the last half hour or so??


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## symmetry (23 February 2010)

WTF are you doing  ? 

seriously , while im not giving advice on here , you need rules and plan , not some gut feel fundamantal instinct  which will will burn you finaically and mentally 

Now rule one when wrong get out !
rule 2 make sure you know your limits and where you can afford to loose 
rule 3 educate your slef and learn to plan , far out ! , hey you dont use IG brokers either they arant real as so many have pointed out , what your doing is gambiling , NOT trading.

u might as well toss a coin every time you trade ( place a bet ) 

i dont mean to be hard on you , but seriosuly u givr guys like me a bad name and wifes ammo to beat with when u mention trading , then the funds and  brokers rub their hands together coz everyone runs to them thinking they ar ethe only true traders.

STOP !  LEARN , LISTEN and then you can TRADE otherwise you will LAMENT !! ever starting 

if you were a electrician or something you would be dead , gee what does this mean 415 votls - danger , ill touch  it and see what happens ... thats what you did gee i wonder if the market is going to go up, ill touch it and see , WHACK !!!!!!!!   

anyway please please do some study and FFS dont loose your shirt


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## symmetry (23 February 2010)

NEVER TRUST FUNDAMANTALS they are for the sheep !! that follow ..


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## jonojpsg (23 February 2010)

symmetry said:


> WTF are you doing  ?
> 
> seriously , while im not giving advice on here , you need rules and plan , not some gut feel fundamantal instinct  which will will burn you finaically and mentally
> 
> ...




Oh I agree with everything you say.  I have been trading like this for about 7 years and and am pretty much exactly where I started.  It has been an interesting ride though, kept me entertained. 

Yep, I reckon I should ditch IG, although what diff does it make if you are trading oil, currencies, indexes whether you use CFDs or other brokers?  Doesn't the price track the same anyway?


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## Synergy (23 February 2010)

symmetry said:


> WTF are you doing  ?
> if you were a electrician or something you would be dead , gee what does this mean 415 votls - danger , ill touch  it and see what happens ... thats what you did gee i wonder if the market is going to go up, ill touch it and see , WHACK !!!!!!!!




Quality analogy.

Jono, if after 7 years of active trading you are still in the game, you must be doing some things right at least some of the time.


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## Trembling Hand (23 February 2010)

jonojpsg said:


> OK, well I try and keep up with the macro stuff going on, eg latest news, interest rates, economic data.  That at least helps me trade from an informed perspective (OK so far?).
> 
> Then from the charts I would look for support/resistance points, short/long term trends, volume, etc. and identify entry/exit points.
> 
> ...




Blah Blah Blah, That's not actually,



jonojpsg said:


> really am trying to become a better trader,



 In fact you listing what I would call just the most basic of functions, like lifting your feet when going for a run. Is a real worry. If after,



jonojpsg said:


> been trading like this for about 7 years and and am pretty much exactly where I started.



And your still pulling stops give up. You cannot even lift your feet to start to train for the running race, let alone think about winning it.


jonojpsg said:


> So how do I get an edge?  Is it intuition?




Whats that line about doing the same thing and expecting a different result?


Here is a suggestion which I'm betting you will ignore.

Get on a *sim *account and find a pattern that repeats with good R:R and where you can recognize what market condition it applies to.

*Then,*

Trade it on sim for about 500 trades. If you have positive expectancy after the whole 500 start with correct MM in the real market with small amounts.

build from there.

But I know you won't cuz thats to hard and takes too long and already you want to ask what pattern "with good R:R".


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## symmetry (24 February 2010)

there a good brokers with low fees , real markets .

IG does not track markets 1:1 they delay and soemtimes skew the numbers, same as CFD brokers, i have many a time when im in a good position , had a large fall say in the AUD usd  with little or no movment on my account when in fact i should be up 10k i stopped using them as id ring and ask why it hasnt moved, they d give some BS excuse about delays or  the forex market im looking at isnt as live as theres or they are taking it from a another exchange lol  so i ve seenthis in stocks too - when you have no market runnign they skew the figures on what they see plus take into account your entry as its all about them being profitable thats the difference between brokers , they win on entry, exit ( win win ) cfd brokers ala cmc  win win win , they get u on the spread in , the proft , then the spread out . look at the fininacial statements see how much they make lol 


so use real markets , like futures, forex ( mini's ) these are real movments and you are trading with genuine market makers, NOT MAKERS OF THE MARKET to suit their pocket. plus its small margins 

seriously hang seng is a serious mover  and nikkie ull die if you have no plan , while you can make good money on them u have to study how they work a nd why they move great gaps , its not hard !! its just hard work !!! 

listen , as the previous guy said go to go markets or IB or MBT  and get a demo account hell go to synthesis bank demo they give you nearly every demo / market with cash galore , practice until ( yes 500 trades is good )  and do it as if its real 

PLACE BIG SIGNS up on your monitors  WHERE IS MY STOP ! ... AM I FOLLOWING MY PLAN !!!  etc..  

look u may be lucky so far but u will physco out or loose more than your shirt ... i guess if u like giving me money away hell give it to me .. : ) 

as an engineer you should apply sound methodolgy , look try using some basic math ... 

are you trading daily or intraday ?  coz there is a big difference.


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## Temjin (24 February 2010)

Errrr...trade gone the opposite way, so...sell it and take the actual loss?

Don't EVEN try to "hope" that it will goes back up and then you will sell it. This is a common trap for pretty much 99% of beginner traders. 

It's a worry that you are "playing" CFDs without a proper plan. Advise you to sell everything now and go back to the drawing boards for several months.


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## symmetry (26 February 2010)

just wondering if your still alive ?  or still sane ? 

hopefully you have rethought what your doing ?  anyway let us know how your getting on


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