# When Stock Market Panic Abates



## MrMomentum (15 August 2011)

After a period of global stock market fear, it's a shock to my system once the panic suddenly eases.

Its hard for me to know whether a rise in the stock market is the start of a short lived rally or the start of something bigger.

To help me assess the market one of the first things I like to look at is a CHART.

I like to analyse charts on two different levels. 

a) I look at the long term chart (eg daily, weekly).
b) I look at the short term chart (eg 30mins, 1 hour).

I then have to decide for myself the next "check point" I believe the index/stock could reach based on the direction it's heading towards.

Analysing charts helps me to determine how long a trend may last for if the momentum is sustained.

I try to decide from this if the trend may be short lived or long lived.

*Please let me know how you assess whether a rally is short lived or the start of something bigger.*


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## tech/a (15 August 2011)

How do you determine the next check point?
How do you determine if this move is short or long lived?
How do you determine how long a trend may last if momentum is sustained


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## Boggo (15 August 2011)

MrMomentum said:


> *Please let me know how you assess whether a rally is short lived or the start of something bigger.*




*You *tell us how *you* do it, put up a chart.

I worry when new posters have blog sites attached that link to "pay to find out more" type nonsense.

Waiting for a chart and a better example of what you are on about in your first post to set aside my suspicions !


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## Noddy (15 August 2011)

MrMomentum said:


> After a period of global stock market fear, it's a shock to my system once the panic suddenly eases.
> 
> Its hard for me to know whether a rise in the stock market is the start of a short lived rally or the start of something bigger.
> 
> ...




So, assuming you have analysed today's chart, perhaps you can enlighten us as to where the xao will go in the next week or so ?
Look forward to your response.


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## notting (15 August 2011)

Hey Mr. Moment Man, lay a chart for me.
I'm not sleeping and I don't know where I'm going to.

Hey Mr. Momentum display for all to see,
My ribs have all been stripped
My hooves too smooth to grip
My leverage on this bank is what I'm dreaming

Hey Mr Momentman
Take me to that tree
Where grain and hay will be
Trending endlessly into my fat tummy
By the sunny starstruck morning
 I'll be following you


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## skc (15 August 2011)

notting said:


> Hey Mr. Moment Man, lay a chart for me.
> I'm not sleeping and I don't know where I'm going to.
> 
> Hey Mr. Momentum display for all to see,
> ...




What's the music?


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## notting (15 August 2011)

skc said:


> What's the music?




Dylan - Mr Tambourine Man


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## skc (15 August 2011)

notting said:


> Dylan - Mr Tambourine Man




Not my era 

I am on the Gen X team.


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## MrMomentum (16 August 2011)

skc said:


> How do you determine the next check point?
> How do you determine if this move is short or long lived?
> How do you determine how long a trend may last if momentum is sustained




I thank you for your questions.

I thank you for dedicating me a song.

I hope the information below explains how I view "checkpoints."

A checkpoint is my projection where I believe the price or index level could reach if the momentum keeps going the way it's going.

How do I determine the next check point?

This is the subjective part. It's a purely personal decision on my part. It's my educated guess.

I like to look at round numbers e.g. say a stock is moving upwards; current price is say $27.30; a round number projection for me could be say $30.00.

I also like to look at chart patterns e.g a stock may be moving downwards; current price is say $5.80; I spot a support level say at $5.00.

How do I determine if a move may be short or long lived?

To me it’s about distance. I ask myself how far away is my check point level from where it’s trading now.

The distance gives me some clue as to how long it might take to reach the projected level. Again it's my educated guess.

In summary, deciding where the next checkpoint is for me is a purely personal decision based on my analysis of the chart and my feel for where things may be heading.

*Please let me know if anybody else uses a different method to make their projections*


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## nomore4s (16 August 2011)

So you pretty much just guess based on round numbers?

The distance of the current price to your target determines your guess as to how short or long lived a move maybe?

So let me get this straight.

You determine targets based on feel and guesses and then you determine the time-frame of that move based on that guess using even more feel and guessing?

Any wonder TA gets a bad name. How about posting a chart up so we can see some analysis?


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## Boggo (16 August 2011)

nomore4s said:


> You determine targets based on feel and guesses and then you determine the time-frame of that move based on that guess using even more feel and guessing?
> 
> Any wonder TA gets a bad name. How about posting a chart up so we can see some analysis?




Agree, general statements mean nothing until you demonstrate it in action, ie on a chart.

Waiting to see if you can actually put it into action = chart.



MrMomentum said:


> *Please let me know if anybody else uses a different method to make their projections*




Seems to me that we all do. Until you demonstrate your method in action (= chart) then we have no comparison do we, your 'method' is just guesswork to put it mildly.


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## notting (16 August 2011)

May not be up to the challenge of working out how to post a chart. LOL


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## tech/a (16 August 2011)

He's looking for ideas so he can call them his own.
Clearly he has no idea.
Hasnt even suggested how he finds or determines Momentum.
Wont be getting any help from me.


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## MrMomentum (18 August 2011)

nomore4s said:


> So you pretty much just guess based on round numbers?
> 
> The distance of the current price to your target determines your guess as to how short or long lived a move maybe?
> 
> ...




Hi nomore4s,

The answer to your question is YES. 

I believe technical analysis (or chart analysis) is indeed subjective.

When I analyse a chart my analysis is based on my understanding of the chart in front of me.

My decisions to place stop and profit targets are based on my gut feel about where I feel the market may be heading at the time.

I adhere to the idea that one persons support is another persons resistance. 

I believe that Chart Analysis is subjective by its very nature.


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## dutchie (18 August 2011)

All analysis is subjective.


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## tech/a (18 August 2011)

MrMomentum said:


> Hi nomore4s,
> 
> The answer to your question is YES.
> 
> ...




I can see no reason then for you to be involved in any charting.
If its all just a guess then a chart / price action and analysis is no more than a "gut" feel.
You have no idea then of how to skew probability in your favor.
Or WHY a technical application of analysis will return a positive outcome.


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