# CAJ - Capitol Health



## csquaredau (19 September 2012)

Magic of numbers. 

Revenue and Profit goes up but mainly due to management fees coming down 

Nearly $7m of increased revenue results in -$700k of Net cash from Operating activities.

Why has this stock gone up in value? :1zhelp:


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## Ves (19 September 2012)

I looked at this a few weeks back & agree that the accounting looks suspicious. I was turned off by the fact that the working capital deficiency looked dubious. I have a feeling that this is why they raised capital  (not two days after releasing a profit upgrade!). The announcements concerning this are also fairly amateurish... hard to know what their intentions were, because they seemed to have changed them after the first annoucement.

From what I can tell they previously did a lot of dental imaging work for unrelated parties (hence higher management fees which are really labour costs on a billing basis). However, this will not happen going forward.  Something to do with government funding for this kind of work being cut?  I would also assume that this work was lower margin.

Therefore there would be a subsequent decrease in revenue for this kind of work.  So one would assume that they have increased the amount of services that they provide in other areas (or this top-line growth has come from previous acquisitions).

This is a business in transition. They have changed from CAT scans to MRI scans. The profitability metrics are better with the former from what I have understood. The medicare exclusivity that they will be receiving from the government going forward could be turned into a moat. However this is not truly sustainable forever. Remember, what can be given, can be taken away.  I am always wary of health stocks because they are heavily regulated and the government loves changing the rules  (have a look at VEI's announcement last week).  I would also imagine that this kind of business is capital intensive. Medical equipment is not cheap.  They do not seem to generate much in the way of free cash flow at the moment, and rely on debt to make acquisitions.


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## McLovin (19 September 2012)

Ves said:


> I looked at this a few weeks back & agree that the accounting looks suspicious. I was turned off by the fact that the working capital deficiency looked dubious. I have a feeling that this is why they raised capital  (not two days after releasing a profit upgrade!). The announcements concerning this are also fairly amateurish... hard to know what their intentions were, because they seemed to have changed them after the first annoucement.




Just a thought, I haven't spent any time looking at this company, but it is possible given the type of business they are in they can work with negative WC. I got an MRI and I had to pay upfront and then get reimbursed a % by my health fund.


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## csquaredau (19 September 2012)

Strange with all the revenue and profit growth very little improvement in current assets vs current liabilities.


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## skc (20 September 2012)

csquaredau said:


> Strange with all the revenue and profit growth very little improvement in current assets vs current liabilities.




Here are the numbers of current assets / current liabilities of some other companies (2012 to 2010).

PRY: 1.026, 1.270, 1.183
SHL: 0.729, 1.666, 0.904
CSL: 3.625, 2.919, 4.243
MND: 1.262, 1.192, 1.167

CAJ: 0.452, 0.361, 0.357

Is the trend really meaningful indication of anything? What's the point of having large holding of current assets when they should be converted to fixed assets like more equipment? 

The only issue you need to worry about with CAJ is the negative working capital... which is actually a benefit to shareholders as a source of cheap funding to the company if it can be used sustainably.


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## Ves (20 September 2012)

McLovin said:


> Just a thought, I haven't spent any time looking at this company, but it is possible given the type of business they are in they can work with negative WC. I got an MRI and I had to pay upfront and then get reimbursed a % by my health fund.




That's where I was spliting hairs the most.  The thing that complicates it (and admittedly has improved in 2012) is the debt payments due. It makes the balance sheet look more lop-sided than I would otherwise feel comfortable.

When I first looked at it, it had negative net tangible assets.  There was also a "going concern" note in the accounts because of this.  Just a couple of red flags. 

Lots of businesses successfully abuse negative WC setups, but the wider the gap gets the riskier the proposition becomes.  Suddenly you have too small a cash float and all of your payables start falling due.  That's the difference between something like DTL and CAJ.


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## csquaredau (4 October 2012)

-$4.3m liabilities exceed assets. why would they give themselves big pay rises and why would they pay a dividend. Surely they need to get business fundamentals right.


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## pixel (28 May 2013)

csquaredau said:


> -$4.3m liabilities exceed assets. why would they give themselves big pay rises and why would they pay a dividend. Surely they need to get business fundamentals right.




Could this chart provide an answer?




Sure, it's well after your complaint, but that's the nature of trading.
I'm trading the swings in channels like this; right now, I'm waiting for the iceberg seller to exhaust his supply at 24c; if that happens, I'll likely top up. Otherwise, stop out.


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## leyy (17 October 2013)

This beauty of a small cap has been going higher and higher over the last year it reached a new high of 0.45 cents today.

Business is going well with the acquisition of MDI Group, realising the benefits and synergies.

Great potential for growth (organic and acquisitions) as they only operate in Victoria.

Paying dividends and cash flow positive


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## Country Lad (17 October 2013)

leyy said:


> Great potential for growth (organic and acquisitions) as they only operate in Victoria.




I looked at it as a business with significant natural growth.  The aging population should prove positive for these types of businesses.  I now have more than enough and will give the stops more room for retracements.

Cheers
Country Lad


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## leyy (26 October 2013)

Thanks for the chart CL.

Yes agreed with the aging population and baby boomers retiring this should be of great benefits to CAJ.

The only concern is instability with government and regulatory changes with medicare and rebates etc which could heavily impact CAJ.

I am holding CAJ in both my personal and SMSF.

I too have given more room for retracement and widened my stop loss, so I don't get taken out before their next leg up.


cheers

leyy


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## pixel (10 December 2013)

leyy said:


> This beauty of a small cap has been going higher and higher over the last year it reached a new high of 0.45 cents today.
> 
> Business is going well with the acquisition of MDI Group, realising the benefits and synergies.
> 
> ...




Nice retracement off the Highs:




I got some today on the rebound; current vwap 36.4c and rising.


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## leyy (31 March 2014)

Still Holding CAJ and it is prodding north nicely.

Reached new highs again this week and closed at $0.63 today.

Trading at a PE of circa 42 now.

CAJ is 50% of my SMSF portfolio now as it has increased in value so much over the last 18 months. 

Will probably look at selling a parcel of shares to de-risk this week.


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## nomadic1970 (31 March 2014)

I got some in the last month also and cannot complain 

They have got a good niche business, and with an aging population can only get better for them. Cannot see any negatives at the moment.


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## skc (31 March 2014)

skc said:


> *New Position*
> 
> 10/2/2011 Buy 150,000 CAJ @ 3.7c = $5,550.
> 
> ...




This was my post from 2011 or 3 years ago. Entry price was 3.7c. Current price 63c makes it a 1700% return.

BTW, FY11 EPS was ~$1m or 0.3cps. Share price was 3-4c around the full year report.
Today I am guessing FY14 EPS would be ~1.3-1.5c. And the share price is 63c.

So EPS growth = 4.5x while share price went up ~18x... So PE expanded from ~10x to 50x.

I never would have expected that, and still don't believe what I am seeing... and I would have sold my holding at 20x, 25x, 30x, 35x etc etc.


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## ROE (31 March 2014)

skc said:


> This was my post from 2011 or 3 years ago. Entry price was 3.7c. Current price 63c makes it a 1700% return.
> 
> BTW, FY11 EPS was ~$1m or 0.3cps. Share price was 3-4c around the full year report.
> Today I am guessing FY14 EPS would be ~1.3-1.5c. And the share price is 63c.
> ...




Well done time for a beer after you lock in the profit when ever it is


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## McLovin (2 April 2014)

skc said:


> This was my post from 2011 or 3 years ago. Entry price was 3.7c. Current price 63c makes it a 1700% return.
> 
> BTW, FY11 EPS was ~$1m or 0.3cps. Share price was 3-4c around the full year report.
> Today I am guessing FY14 EPS would be ~1.3-1.5c. And the share price is 63c.
> ...




Nice work, skc.


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## skc (2 April 2014)

ROE said:


> Well done time for a beer after you lock in the profit when ever it is






McLovin said:


> Nice work, skc.




For the record... I am not holding. I sold waaaaay too early.


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## skc (2 April 2014)

The recent spike probably came from the Eureka interview of CAJ's CEO.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=yzv3fMTi3TU&feature=youtu.be


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## leyy (16 July 2014)

Another great result from CAJ.

I was pleased to top up when it retraced to circa 0.42 cents

this stock has yet to disappoint and is certainly a long term hold.


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## Boggo (13 August 2014)

leyy said:


> ...
> this stock has yet to disappoint and is certainly a long term hold.




I wonder if it can repeat the past run, amazing results again yesterday.

Weekly chart.


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## leyy (19 September 2014)

Strong buying / large volume at close of trading today.

closed shy off its recent highs of 0.72 cents

The chart is looking very good for a break out.

Could be some instos loading up or potential takeover, regardless of the outcome CAJ is going north from here.


Cheers
leyy


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## pixel (20 September 2014)

leyy said:


> Strong buying / large volume at close of trading today.
> 
> closed shy off its recent highs of 0.72 cents
> 
> ...




It looks like a Cup & Handle setup: http://www.leavittbrothers.com/education/chart_patterns/cup_and_handle_bullish.cfm


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## leyy (10 December 2014)

Huge announcement today with the acquisition of Southern Radiology Group.

10-15% EPS accretive FY15.

First expansion out of Victoria into Australia's biggest market Sydney/NSW.

Watch this space, this company has huge prospects for long term growth through acquisitions and organic growth.

3 years ago the share price was 0.03 cents.

John Conidi has to be commended on the management of Capitol Health.

He also holds 32 million shares.


Cheers,
leyy


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## leyy (12 December 2014)

Gap up, strong close today $0.755 cents another 8.6% increase two strong days on two red days.

All time 3 year high for CAJ hopefully this confirms the break of resistance at $0.70 cents.


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## Gordon7 (30 January 2015)

I consider yesterday's move a good breakout out of a short term flag-like retracement, but have a look at the volume since mid December. I don't often pay attention to volume but the volume surrounding this move speaks loudly to me. I anticipate higher from here.

Unfortunately this wasn't on my immediate watchlist so I missed it, but will keep an eye on how it plays from here on.


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## leyy (11 February 2015)

Another stellar result from CAJ.

I am kicking myself as I sold half of my holdings from both my SMSF and Personal account at 0.82   and also I didn't top up on the cap raising for the two acquisitions... as CAJ is already my largest holding... far too large. Can't be too greedy i guess already up circa 400% on this.

Summary of the results.

14% revenue growth
53% NPAT
41% EPS 
0.60 cents dividend, 50% dividend growth from interim dividend FY14 and 20% dividend growth final dividend FY14


5/7 MRI have recently been installed which has not contributed to the revenue growth.

Impressive results and purely from organic growth.

What's more exciting is the two recent acquisitions below are EPS accretive FY15 and expands their business from VIC to NSW.

Olympic Park - FY'14 = Revenue 10.4m / EBITDA 3.3m

Southern Radiology - FY'14 = Revenue 37m / EBITDA 7.2m


Lastly, they have a very clean balance sheet/ good OCF and very good management.

Well done John Conidi!


Cheers


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## tinhat (10 September 2015)

Catching the falling knife, I recently bought into CAJ on fundamentals alone. Amazing that this company recently retraced 50% of the price run from the beginning of 2012 to March 2015 and a 100% retracement to the December 2014 low. The price has made a double bottom over the past couple of weeks.

The interview of the MD by Alan Kohler in 2014 is worth watching for anyone interested in the validity of the growth by acquisition strategy.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=yzv3fMTi3TU

Also worth keeping an eye on is the upcoming I-MED radiology IPO.


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## Triathlete (10 September 2015)

tinhat said:


> Catching the falling knife, I recently bought into CAJ on fundamentals alone. Amazing that this company recently retraced 50% of the price run from the beginning of 2012 to March 2015 and a 100% retracement to the December 2014 low.
> 
> *The price has made a double bottom over the past couple of weeks*.
> 
> .




If I was looking at the charts for a technical view I would not call it a double bottom ,which has not been confirmed either.... but rather just bouncing off support . If it got to $0.03 then I might call it a double bottom then.

The daily, weekly and monthly  swings are all down at the moment so no indication that the stock is ready to move back up just yet...in my view at the moment....

So may still go lower....Lets hope this support level holds...

Fundamentally looks like good value though..


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## Porper (10 September 2015)

tinhat said:


> Catching the falling knife, I recently bought into CAJ on fundamentals alone. Amazing that this company recently retraced 50% of the price run from the beginning of 2012 to March 2015 and a 100% retracement to the December 2014 low. The price has made a double bottom over the past couple of weeks.
> 
> The interview of the MD by Alan Kohler in 2014 is worth watching for anyone interested in the validity of the growth by acquisition strategy.
> 
> ...




No idea about fundamentals but an interesting cluster of time projections in September/October. Yep, a large target in terms of time but below is the weekly chart so acceptable when looking at the larger degree patterns. Bottom line is that this area of support needs to hold.

It also looks like a 5-wave move down off highs so looking for a larger bounce as opposed to a multi-year trend higher. Target area $0.85 - 0.90.


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## Triathlete (10 September 2015)

Porper said:


> No idea about fundamentals but an *interesting cluster of time projections in September/October.* Yep, a large target in terms of time but below is the weekly chart so acceptable when looking at the larger degree patterns. Bottom line is that this area of support needs to hold.
> 
> It also looks like a 5-wave move down off highs so looking for a larger bounce as opposed to a multi-year trend higher. Target area $0.85 - 0.90.




Those Time clusters look very interesting Porper.
What does your EW look like on the weekly/monthly chart?


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## Porper (11 September 2015)

Triathlete said:


> Those Time clusters look very interesting Porper.
> What does your EW look like on the weekly/monthly chart?




With a chart like this it's often better to use semi-log which is what I've done here. A rise of over 3600% since late 2011 means we can better label the early patterns. A significant top could well be in although a decent bounce from here is likely i.m.o.


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## Triathlete (11 September 2015)

Porper said:


> With a chart like this it's often better to use semi-log which is what I've done here. A rise of over 3600% since late 2011 means we can better label the early patterns. A significant top could well be in although *a decent bounce from here is likely i.m.o*.




We are at the two strongest price levels at the moment.
50% of the All time high and 50% of the All time range

So a bounce is on the cards from here in my opinion.


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## Triathlete (3 October 2015)

Triathlete said:


> We are at the two strongest price levels at the moment.
> 50% of the All time high and 50% of the All time range
> 
> So a bounce is on the cards from here in my opinion.




CAJ has broken through the two major support levels this week so no bounce as anticipated previously and has now closed at $0.535.

This move lower has been supported with increased volume and to me looks like further falls are likely and $0.44 looks likely at the moment imo.


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## tinhat (6 October 2015)

I haven't hit my stop loss yet but it is not heading in the right direction.

I skimmed over the Integral Diagnostics (IDX) IPO prospectus today https://www.idxshareoffer.com.au/

I think the market is repricing this to some extent based on the IDX IPO. Similar sizes in terms of EBITA with IDX carrying less debt (post float) but more net debt as CAJ have over $40m cash on hand compared to IDX $10m.

Investors might also be attracted to IDX by the prospect of a decent dividend yield. The prospectus gives no firm guidance on dividends but suggests an implied dividend to offer price of 4.7% based on a 70% payout ratio of FY2016F NPATA.

On the whole I would say that while the forecast earnings growth for IDX as per the prospectus is very roughly similar to the forecasts for CAJ (that is high!), both companies appear to have a strategy of growth by acquisition (as the organic rate of growth in the diagnostic imaging industry is only 5.4%pa). CAJ appears to be better geared to funding growth by acquisition (more cash on hand). 

By the way, I rang Comsec to ask if they were a participating broker in the IDX retail offer and was informed they are not. Does anyone else have info on this? The share offer telephone number only has a recorded message and won't be staffed until the offer opens next week. The prospectus states they are accepting $2,000 minimum investment.


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## tinhat (28 October 2015)

Triathlete said:


> This move lower has been supported with increased volume and to me looks like further falls are likely and $0.44 looks likely at the moment imo.




The bounce never came but it never hit my stop loss either and the fundamentals on which I invested haven't substantially changed. In fact, I had an order in at $0.45 which triggered this morning and seeing as I am in neck deep now, picked up some more at 40.5c - so am sitting with a holding under the water at 52c per share.

I assume that the guidance update issued last night accounts for today's collapse in the share price (Vic operational weakness, lower anticipated referrals, revenue for full year expected to be down 4-6% on forecast) rather than the investment into Enlitic announced this morning.

The Enlitic investment is interesting. I also like that they are offering their radiologists a slice of that investment. CAJ will be feeding their data and archived data to Enlitic to feed into their deep learning programs. Fascinating if nothing else.

Watch the TED talk at the bottom of the page.


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## skc (28 October 2015)

tinhat said:


> The bounce never came but it never hit my stop loss either and the fundamentals on which I invested haven't substantially changed.




This part seemed reasonable.



tinhat said:


> In fact, I had an order in at $0.45 which triggered this morning and *seeing as I am in neck deep now*, picked up some more at 40.5c - so am sitting with a holding under the water at 52c per share.




Not so sure about this approach!



tinhat said:


> I assume that the guidance update issued last night accounts for today's collapse in the share price (Vic operational weakness, lower anticipated referrals, revenue for full year expected to be down 4-6% on forecast) rather than the investment into Enlitic announced this morning.




When a stock is trading at PE 50x it doesn't take much to bring the share price down. They tried to hide the update in the back of an announcement, after market, marked non-sensitive... then tried to further cover it up with another announcement this morning.... very poor form.



tinhat said:


> The Enlitic investment is interesting. I also like that they are offering their radiologists a slice of that investment. CAJ will be feeding their data and archived data to Enlitic to feed into their deep learning programs. Fascinating if nothing else.




Very interesting except for the part where they are going to sink $10m into the venture which will undoubtedly generate no return for the foreseeable future.


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## skyQuake (28 October 2015)

That was the fastest 3Y i'd ever seen.

Director buys some stock on market @ 42c and immediately tells the world... seems pretty desperate!


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## skc (28 October 2015)

skyQuake said:


> That was the fastest 3Y i'd ever seen.
> 
> Director buys some stock on market @ 42c and immediately tells the world... seems pretty desperate!




Yes I know... I read it and had a chuckle.

I believe this is the phone conversation that took place between the other Directors and Peter Lewis.

"Peter, we are hurting too much with our existing holdings. Seeing that you have no shares could you buy some on market? I will put you down for 200k and the 3Y is ready to go."

So he bought 200k shares on a day where vol is getting close to 50m (10% of issued stock).


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## PeterJ (28 October 2015)

I am glad i use stops and was out of this months ago !


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## Gringotts Bank (28 October 2015)

Radiology usage is shrinking massively.

Research on the usefulness of diagnostic imaging is overwhelmingly negative.  That is, it's not useful for most patient conditions most of the time.  Of course there are still exceptions, but the imaging businesses are going to continue to shrink as doctors and allied health professionals become more familiar with the research.  

Wouldn't consider touching this, or trading it, except short.


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## skc (28 October 2015)

Gringotts Bank said:


> Radiology usage is shrinking massively.




Do you have a source for this?


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## Gringotts Bank (29 October 2015)

skc said:


> Do you have a source for this?




Not formal, anecdotal.   Also, I'm making a few small assumptions about the current referrers to radiology (GPs, specialists and allied health providers).  So long as these referrers:

1- keep up to date with research and
2- want to do the best thing by their patients, then...

..total referrals to radiology should drop quite dramatically.  Your wife is a GP, if I remember correctly?  She's be aware of the research, which is so powerful it's impossible to argue against.


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## leyy (29 October 2015)

Gringotts Bank said:


> Not formal, anecdotal.   Also, I'm making a few small assumptions about the current referrers to radiology (GPs, specialists and allied health providers).  So long as these referrers:
> 
> 1- keep up to date with research and
> 2- want to do the best thing by their patients, then...
> ...




everyone is entitled to their own opinion. you know everyone is an expert.

anyways, I have topped up on CAJ for both SMSF and personal account. I was looking to top up some time ago.

This is a well run company with a bright future.


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## Eily (2 November 2015)

csquaredau said:


> Magic of numbers.
> 
> Revenue and Profit goes up but mainly due to management fees coming down
> 
> ...




I have also looked at this and I am very concerned. The MD suggesting that recent poor perfomance is due to the Federal Governments MBS review is using hyperbole. I would suggest its more about a poor doctor culture, very ordinary management practices and a Company that has someway to get it governance quality up to standard ?


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## tinhat (30 January 2016)

http://www.abc.net.au/news/2016-01-...e-involving-worlds-largest-3d-printer/7121526

The ABC are reporting that ASIC is investigating the circumstances around 3D Group which went into voluntary administration and whose assets, including intellectual property were sold to a company registered by Johh Condi, Managing Director of Capital Health.

"He [Mr Conidi] assured me that he would make me very rich and that he had the skills to not only take the company to the ASX (Australian Stock Exchange) but to make it very profitable," Mr Simpson alleged.


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## peter2 (13 October 2017)

I've added CAJ to both weekly portfolio's today. I was going to wait for the BO >0.30, but the rising TMF and OBV has convinced me to pre-empt the BO. I don't know if pre-empting the BO is a good thing or not for my trading edge as I've not kept the stats. 

There seems to be plenty of supply at 0.30 evidenced by the price tails >0.30. Huge volume today.
The probability of higher prices is enough for me to start a medium term trade now.


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## greggles (10 May 2018)

CAJ is coming up as a potential breakout for me. It's been range trading between 25c and 30c for the past 11 months and there has been plenty of accumulation during that time. Today, it is making a move towards 30c and I am getting the feeling that the selling may be drying up a little.

One to watch for a break above 30c.


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## peter2 (5 June 2018)

This long consolidation looks likely to end with a break-out soon (>0.325). 
Both my volume indicators (OBV, TMF) are rising significantly indicating accumulation. 
I've started nibbling once more.


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## leyy (9 June 2018)

peter2 said:


> This long consolidation looks likely to end with a break-out soon (>0.325).
> Both my volume indicators (OBV, TMF) are rising significantly indicating accumulation.
> I've started nibbling once more.
> View attachment 87696




Spot on peter2.

I have been a medium term holder, so I am pleased to see CAJ break its resistance of 0.325 cents and complete the long consolidation over the last year and close out at 0.335 cents.

It is now at a 2.5 year high, if momentum continues next target is 0.50 cents.


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## kid hustlr (23 June 2018)

Very good call P2 and it continue to look healthy with a nice tight consolidation on low volume @ highs


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## HelloU (28 June 2018)

they did another buy yesterday.....on the face of it the numbers look good for earnings......but...but........anyway should keep SP bubbling along.


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## rnr (5 May 2019)

Price has increased by just over 44% in the last 2 months.

Price has been consolidating over the last 5 bars....is it ready to breakout once again?


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## peter2 (28 August 2020)

In the year since the last post the CAJ has been on a ride. Price was stuck in a range for nine months before breaking out >0.265 in Jan 2020. Right before the COVID selloff. Ouch. Price halved and has rallied steadily off the low.

The gov't bans on elective surgery and other non essential medical procedures during the pandemic have hurt all medical service companies (incl IVF - VRT. MVF). As restrictions ease (we all hope they do soon in spite of dictatorial premiers) patient numbers will return to near normal levels eventually. We're all getting older. 

Tried to get some CAJ this week but price stayed above my limit price. I'll keep this and VRT, MVF on my radar.


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## Dona Ferentes (19 March 2021)

you would think CAJ was rebounding. A bit. Probably did quite well, considering Covid and lockdowns. Managed to grow volumes and improve margins.

Still making acquisitions : Nov 2020, Direct Radiology; Jan 2020, Fowler Simmons Radiology
Raised $30M in early April 2020 (!) from insto's and SPP

New Management Team (how many stabs at this since listing in 2006?). A lot of acquisitions but integration has always been the challenge. It is said they _have spent a lot of time focusing on managing and retaining people_ - well, der!

The most recent financial results were stronger:
*Company highlights and commentary 1H FY21: *
• _Revenue of $85.3m, an increase of $4.7m or 5.9% on previous corresponding period (pcp) 
• Statutory EBITDA of $22.6m, an increase of $6.6m or 41.4% on pcp 
• Operating EBITDA of $26.6m, an increase of $8.9m or 50.1% on pcp 
• Operating Margin of 31.1% up from 22.0% for pcp 
• Statutory NPAT of $6.2m, an increase of $3.5m or 131.6% on pcp 
• Interim dividend payment maintained at 0.5 cps fully franked

The Company plans to continue organic growth via greenfield and brownfield developments.  Strategic priorities for the current year include: 
• Ongoing investment in systems, people, and capability to enhance our referrer relationships 
• Continue to measure and enhance the patient experience 
• Review of information and communication technology in support of clinics, referrers and patients_

Five year chart: (but the previous 5 years was a mountain range ... over $1 in 2015)






(NH, DNH)


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## investtrader (1 May 2021)

Nice trend on Weekly. Very strong fundamentals and good value.


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