# How much RED for ASX 200 on Monday?



## nizar (13 May 2006)

Im calling another 80pt shocker like last thursday, lost a bundle that day

DOW down by another 1% (thats like 250pts in the last  2 trading days)
Zinc makes its first big move in weeks, then goes back down and geez all that negative press about copper, some guy quoted in daily telegraph as saying it go down by $1,000/tonne anyday now cant be good for the price...
And Gold, easing off a bit..

I hope every1s got cash in the bank to stock up, coz we will see alot of red on monday

Thoughts?


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## Porper (13 May 2006)

*Re: How much RED for asx200 on Monday?*



			
				nizar said:
			
		

> Im calling another 80pt shocker like last thursday, lost a bundle that day
> 
> DOW down by another 1% (thats like 250pts in the last  2 trading days)
> Zinc makes its first big move in weeks, then goes back down and geez all that negative press about copper, some guy quoted in daily telegraph as saying it go down by $1,000/tonne anyday now cant be good for the price...
> ...




If you are in for the medium term, then the trend is positively up still, so not a concern.In answer to your question though, yes it will all be a red on Monday (apart from FAR)

I always get stung heavily with my CFD'S on big down days, sometimes getting stopped out, but that is my method obviously being incorrect rather than the market being bearish.

We can't complain though this is a very strong, bullish market.


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## wayneL (13 May 2006)

*Re: How much RED for asx200 on Monday?*



			
				Porper said:
			
		

> We can't complain though this is a very strong, bullish market.




It certainly is. I think people have forgotten what a real correction is. We could have a 500 pt fall in the ASX200 and STILL be in a bull market. 

But I think there is still some validity in Radges call of a top here. (But I would think that, being an Ã¼berbear  )


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## rederob (13 May 2006)

*Re: How much RED for asx200 on Monday?*



			
				nizar said:
			
		

> Im calling another 80pt shocker like last thursday, lost a bundle that day
> I hope every1s got cash in the bank to stock up, coz we will see alot of red on monday
> Thoughts?



Hope you are right nizar.
I have a few buy orders that I amended down a notch today, so if they come in, they will be bargains (unless the down trend stretches out!).
Having watched the commodities last week go virtually nowhere despite some incredible price rises, I would be surprised if our markets tumble as badly as those overseas.
Apart from Friday's damage to stock markets, the same cannot be said of the factors underpinning base metal prices.  Nickel, copper and zinc are continuing to disappear from exchange warehouses, while energy costs are impacting aluminium: Lead is in good supply, but hardly makes a difference to the base metals' tone.
Silver had an intraday peak over $15 before a big selldown knocked a dollar off, while gold ran almost to $730 before losing about $20 as profit takers ended the week with fat wallets.
My reading of markets suggest that whatever is lost short term, will almost certainly be added back medium term.
If the carnage settles in again on Monday night, I will ratchet down my bids again. A few hundred points off the allords now will shake out the market and put it on a more sustainable path into the second half: At least then we will have some profit guidance rather than speculation to guide us.


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## 3 veiws of a secret (13 May 2006)

*Re: How much RED for ASX200 on Monday?*

As me olde mate in LSE use to say whilst enjoying a swift pint "cash is KING".
Love these corrections!!!!


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## YOUNG_TRADER (15 May 2006)

*Re: How much RED for ASX200 on Monday?*

I love CFD's so easy to short!


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## visual (15 May 2006)

*Re: How much RED for ASX200 on Monday?*

Ok,but why are the banks being caned,
you`d think they are a safety haven for a correction day! :swear:


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## GreatPig (15 May 2006)

*Re: How much RED for ASX200 on Monday?*

Plenty of big red numbers this morning in my portfolios, along with a couple of lonely greens 

GP


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## jet-r (15 May 2006)

*Re: How much RED for ASX200 on Monday?*

same here..

massive selling this morning.. only one of my stock is in green.

the market is probably too emotional this morning. im gonna wait for another hour and see how it goes.


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## RodC (15 May 2006)

*Re: How much RED for ASX200 on Monday?*



			
				visual said:
			
		

> Ok,but why are the banks being caned,
> you`d think they are a safety haven for a correction day! :swear:




ANZ is ex-div today, so at least they've got a reason to be down.


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## visual (15 May 2006)

*Re: How much RED for ASX200 on Monday?*

Ok.Rod,that makes a little sense,however seeing that the div.is about 56 cents,whats the thinking behind the almost double drop.

I was expecting the market to fall seeing the ftse and the dow went bye bye friday,but am completely confused as to why all the banks are getting caned,where are people putting their money cant be in resources,they are the ones who got this started in the first place so where?


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## phoenixrising (15 May 2006)

*Re: How much RED for ASX200 on Monday?*

As Henry Ford said "you can have any colour you like as long as it's........"
Well red in my case.

Looks like the initial storms over, gold up 5.00, pulling LHG & OXR up a little.

What happens now? XJO minus 100. 

Interesting times.


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## bullmarket (15 May 2006)

*Re: How much RED for ASX200 on Monday?*

Good morning everyone 

For anyone wondering what might be 'fair' value for the market, attached is my spreadsheet that I use to calculate average PER's for various market indices.

For those that don't have Excel, below is a cropped screen dump of the spreadsheets summary charts.

I have updated the spreadsheet's data with share prices from earlier this morning from Commsec.

Hopefully the spreadsheet might help someone get a feel for what they think might be fair value overall.

cheers

bullmarket


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## lewstherin (15 May 2006)

*Re: How much RED for ASX200 on Monday?*

Got into work to see that several of my stoplosses had executed...most of these stopped a loss rather than locked in a profit 

Admittedly my stoplosses are usually pretty tight, but despite that I've bled badly today...
That said the cash previously locked up in stocks is now free (admittedly reduced from the last time I had it)...now to find a bargain!


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## ctp6360 (15 May 2006)

*Re: How much RED for ASX200 on Monday?*

Well, again, I don't think this is the start of some crazy crash. I think it is a huge over-reaction to what has happened to the dow jones late last week, everyone has had plenty of time to think about it over the weekend and now they panic and sell like maniacs.

I'm WISHING I sold up on Friday I could have bought back everything I own at a significant discount, instead I just used spare cash to buy more of everything in my portfolio (except JMS which held up well today).

So if I'm right I'm going to be very happy tomorrow!


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## tech/a (15 May 2006)

*Re: How much RED for ASX200 on Monday?*

ctp630

Why not top up on the open of the next obvious up day.
Rather than try to guess when the slide will halt.

Both the DJIA and the ASX are simply reacting to government stratagies to slow inflation. To be expected.


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## mit (15 May 2006)

*Re: How much RED for ASX200 on Monday?*

Remember amateurs open the market and the professionals close the market. I'd look at the trend from 3pm to see what the short term trend is going to be. 

MIT


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## Fab (15 May 2006)

*Re: How much RED for ASX200 on Monday?*

Interesting that metal price across the board got to record high over the weekend . Still because of wall street going down heavily on Friday a lot of resources stocks are in the red at the moment.
My feeling is that this is a good buying opportunity rather than a lasting down trend. It is just my opinion  so.


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## 3 veiws of a secret (15 May 2006)

*Re: How much RED for ASX200 on Monday?*

Well ,it's not as bad as I thought it would be -yes do have red spot specials on my portfolio, of which ORICA is -81 ! but the rest is travelling ,if not cruising fine.
It would be interesting if this continues for 3+ days ,then I will wade into the market on a spending spree. I just wished we would have corrections more often!
I agree 1500 hrs or even 1530hrs this afternoon is a good time to sharpen the pencil,for some bargains!


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## tech/a (15 May 2006)

*Re: How much RED for ASX200 on Monday?*



			
				mit said:
			
		

> Remember amateurs open the market and the professionals close the market. I'd look at the trend from 3pm to see what the short term trend is going to be.
> 
> MIT




Have you any studies to back this.
Its my view that this is one of those bandied "trueisms"
that has no proven credibility.
There are many in this industry.

Unless you're a daytrader or very short term trader perfect timing generally has little influence on the end result.
*Certainly selling * into opening auctions is a great way to pick up a high or close to it for the day.


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## happytrader (15 May 2006)

*Re: How much RED for ASX200 on Monday?*

WBC is going exdividend on June 1 which is 13 trading days time. It has a payout of 56c. I note the stock is down nearly 6% or $23.82 from its $25.35 high.

Low risk time to buy around this level imho before the exdividend greed run.

Cheers
Happytrader


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## GreatPig (15 May 2006)

*Re: How much RED for ASX200 on Monday?*

Amongst all the red I currently have three greens.

One of which is now about +8% and the other +10%. Unfortunately they're both relatively small parcels.

GP


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## Prospector (15 May 2006)

*Re: How much RED for ASX200 on Monday?*

I have 2 - out of many shares....always hate Mondays anyway.  Time to turn off the computer...


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## Sean K (15 May 2006)

*Re: How much RED for ASX200 on Monday?*

2 out of 46.   

The dust has settled though. Many bouncing off intraday lows. Buying opportunity.


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## mit (15 May 2006)

*Re: How much RED for ASX200 on Monday?*



			
				tech/a said:
			
		

> Have you any studies to back this.
> Its my view that this is one of those bandied "trueisms"
> that has no proven credibility.
> There are many in this industry.
> ...




I have actually   .  Enough to know not to wait until just before four to buy (unless the market seems to be very undersold) as the price will quite often retrace back. You don't see it in daily bars as the close auction may make the high for the day. 

MIT


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## powerkoala (15 May 2006)

*Re: How much RED for ASX200 on Monday?*

it is hard to predict whether to enter today or not
even some good news today doesn't effect much
broad selling are still happenning
but if really it stops, really good profit will be tmrw... hmmm


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## GreatPig (15 May 2006)

*Re: How much RED for ASX200 on Monday?*



			
				Prospector said:
			
		

> always hate Mondays anyway



Hmm... perhaps we could start a list of today's top songs (these are not all actual titles):

- Tell me why I don't like Mondays

- I see red

- What goes up, must come down

- I get knocked down, I get up again

- Slip sliding away

- Down down deeper and down

What else... 

GP


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## happytrader (15 May 2006)

*Re: How much RED for ASX200 on Monday?*



			
				mit said:
			
		

> I have actually   .  Enough to know not to wait until just before four to buy (unless the market seems to be very undersold) as the price will quite often retrace back. You don't see it in daily bars as the close auction may make the high for the day.
> 
> MIT





I'm with Mit on this one too. I have 5 years worth on bluechips actually. But don't just believe me, pull out your hourly intraday charts and take a good look.

Cheers 
Happytrader


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## ctp6360 (15 May 2006)

*Re: How much RED for ASX200 on Monday?*

happytrader I noticed the exact same thing on the intraday graphs, I think when this halt is over things will start to look up for the rest of the day, and tomorrow morning, imo, is going to be all green lights!


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## mit (15 May 2006)

*Re: How much RED for ASX200 on Monday?*



			
				happytrader said:
			
		

> I'm with Mit on this one too. I have 5 years worth on bluechips actually. But don't just believe me, pull out your hourly intraday charts and take a good look.
> 
> Cheers
> Happytrader




I should have said to wait until just before four to buy in my previous post.

MIT


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## 3 veiws of a secret (15 May 2006)

*Re: How much RED for ASX200 on Monday?*

TOTAL ASX is suspended!!! technical issues, All my stocks that I follow are jammed up to 12.28 today ?????


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## Prospector (15 May 2006)

*Re: How much RED for ASX200 on Monday?*



			
				GreatPig said:
			
		

> Hmm... perhaps we could start a list of today's top songs (these are not all actual titles):
> 
> - Tell me why I don't like Mondays
> 
> ...





A whiter shade of pale ......

Will you still love me tomorrow.......


We should start a new thread - might be fun.....


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## bullmarket (15 May 2006)

*Re: How much RED for ASX200 on Monday?*



> Originally Posted by GreatPig
> Hmm... perhaps we could start a list of today's top songs (these are not all actual titles):
> 
> - Tell me why I don't like Mondays
> ...




how about..

i get knocked down........but i get up again......ya nevva gunna keep me down...!!!!!


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## justjohn (15 May 2006)

*Re: How much RED for ASX200 on Monday?*



			
				GreatPig said:
			
		

> Hmm... perhaps we could start a list of today's top songs (these are not all actual titles):
> 
> - Tell me why I don't like Mondays
> 
> ...



GP, A couple from the gunners 'Patience' & 'Dont cry'.


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## visual (15 May 2006)

*Re: How much RED for ASX200 on Monday?*

oh well maybe tomorrow.
up day,   not song title,


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## happytrader (15 May 2006)

*Re: How much RED for ASX200 on Monday?*



			
				happytrader said:
			
		

> WBC is going exdividend on June 1 which is 13 trading days time. It has a payout of 56c. I note the stock is down nearly 6% or $23.82 from its $25.35 high.
> 
> Low risk time to buy around this level imho before the exdividend greed run.
> 
> ...




Well Im in.

Cheers
Happytrader


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## ctp6360 (15 May 2006)

*Re: How much RED for ASX200 on Monday?*

I'm in too, thanks for the suggestion happytrader, looks like it will be a clever trade, lets see how it goes.


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## visual (15 May 2006)

*Re: How much RED for ASX200 on Monday?*

well happy trader and ctp,
I got in before the ann,do`h
now hoping to get out with some dignity around divs date.


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## sam76 (15 May 2006)

*Re: How much RED for ASX200 on Monday?*



			
				GreatPig said:
			
		

> Hmm... perhaps we could start a list of today's top songs (these are not all actual titles):
> 
> - Tell me why I don't like Mondays
> 
> ...




It's just another manic Monday wo ho hoo 
I wish it was Sunday wo ho hoo


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## Lucstar (15 May 2006)

*Re: How much RED for ASX200 on Monday?*

Got into OXR today @ $3.56
Probably could've got it even cheaper.
But hey, i think i paid a good price.
Fingers crossed for tommorow


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## bullmarket (15 May 2006)

*Re: How much RED for ASX200 on Monday?*

I'm not convinced it's all doom n gloom yet looking at the weekly XJO chart.

It's too early for me to say whether this is the start of something more sinister....it may or may not be   

One should try to keep in mind that we have been in a roaring bullmarket since Mar 2003 and so a correction will come at some stage as I and others have said in other threads.

The way I see it, XJO had support at ~5150 in early April, so the first thing I'll be watching is whether that level is retested soon.

If it is and it fails to hold then the next level of support I'd be looking at is the ~4800-5000 trading range of Jan/Feb this year.

cheers

bullmarket


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## The Mint Man (15 May 2006)

*Re: How much RED for ASX200 on Monday?*



			
				GreatPig said:
			
		

> Hmm... perhaps we could start a list of today's top songs (these are not all actual titles):
> 
> - Tell me why I don't like Mondays
> 
> ...





How about...:scratch: 
Rescue Me by the Rogue Traders


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## 3 veiws of a secret (15 May 2006)

*Re: How much RED for ASX200 on Monday?*



			
				GreatPig said:
			
		

> Hmm... perhaps we could start a list of today's top songs (these are not all actual titles):
> 
> - Tell me why I don't like Mondays
> 
> ...




How about ...............
1-God only knows ..... Beach Boys
2-Tell me why......Neil Young
3-Baggy Trousers .....or ....Night boat to Cairo......Madness
4-All Blues ....Miles Davis
5-ABC theme tune of Play School when they sing the intriguing lyric -"open wide come inside" ......... I just shake my head in disgust,and bury my face in my hands!
Let me outta here!


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## justjohn (15 May 2006)

*Re: How much RED for ASX200 on Monday?*

Wait until tomorrow - DRAGON    Meltdown - AC/DC :band


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## The Mint Man (15 May 2006)

*Re: How much RED for ASX200 on Monday?*

along the same lines.....Silver Chair - Tomorrow
'ya gonna wait till fat boy '
'fat boy'
'wait till tomorrow'


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## wayneL (15 May 2006)

*Re: How much RED for ASX200 on Monday?*

Gee all these good songs! I am having a bout of nostalgia :


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## Kipp (15 May 2006)

*Re: How much RED for ASX200 on Monday?*

Sheesh, I'm glad a few of you can laugh at the days trading   (probably all selling short!)... "kill me" by Adam Sandler was all that was running through my head!!!

I'd be happy if it only slips another 40pts tomorrow!


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## jet-r (15 May 2006)

*Re: How much RED for ASX200 on Monday?*

lets hope it wont be too bad tomorrow, as the fall today was already in anticipation of the resource correction. The biggest fall in AORD I can find on my chart in recent years is 2.1%. 
Remember how we had a similar correction earlier this year? It was only about 1.2% down, only...............


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## visual (15 May 2006)

*Re: How much RED for ASX200 on Monday?*

doesnt look like tomorrow is a less bloody day,time for a transfusion
what the hell is going on here,sorry no songs,just  at the moment.


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## visual (15 May 2006)

*Re: How much RED for ASX200 on Monday?*

yahoo finance ftse down 129
yahoo uk ftse down 59 ,why is that :swear: cant they even get that right?


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## wayneL (15 May 2006)

*Re: How much RED for ASX200 on Monday?*

SPI down 135 points for the day at the minute.... and looks like my monthly wage strategy will come max out on open of US markets... a month early... WOOOOHOOOO! (It's an option strategy)

PS sorry for getting overly excited, us bears have had little cheer about for a while


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## visual (15 May 2006)

*Re: How much RED for ASX200 on Monday?*

what


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## BSD (15 May 2006)

*Re: How much RED for ASX200 on Monday?*

Hills and RIO down 6% in London

Zinc down 12% and Copper 6%

Margin calls coming tomorrow, here come the forced sellers!

Many shares to gap below the 'tight stops'

Time for some newbies to feel some pain


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## wayneL (15 May 2006)

*Re: How much RED for ASX200 on Monday?*



			
				visual said:
			
		

> yahoo finance ftse down 129
> yahoo uk ftse down 59 ,why is that :swear: cant they even get that right?




Visual I have the FTSE futures down about 67 ATM


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## visual (15 May 2006)

*Re: How much RED for ASX200 on Monday?*

well what the hell happened to the banks being a safety haven for these times


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## visual (15 May 2006)

*Re: How much RED for ASX200 on Monday?*

Wayne go to yahoo finance australia,then go to the uk ireland site and you`ll see what I mean


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## BSD (15 May 2006)

*Re: How much RED for ASX200 on Monday?*

The banks have already recieved all the non-resource money for the last three months as the rest of the industrials got over-priced. 

Banks are now overpriced at 4.5% yields and PEs above 15

As rates rise, the PE needs to fall and the yields need to rise above 5.5%

Why buy banks with limited growth and a yield below 5% when you can lend to the government for 5.5% risk free?


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## wayneL (15 May 2006)

*Re: How much RED for ASX200 on Monday?*



			
				BSD said:
			
		

> Why buy banks with limited growth and a yield below 5% when you can lend to the government for 5.5% risk free?




.....and rising :


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## BSD (15 May 2006)

*Re: How much RED for ASX200 on Monday?*

Indeed

Not good for growing lending volumes or margins on loans


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## visual (15 May 2006)

*Re: How much RED for ASX200 on Monday?*

BSD,having missed the resourses companies or got out early ,banks I thought meant safety,
but I suppose these are the days when technical knowledge outstrips reading the papers or whatever,never mind,
Had a bit of money thought I`d put it somewhere safe now this happened ,missed it by that much,hahaha


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## professor_frink (15 May 2006)

*Re: How much RED for ASX200 on Monday?*

anyone looked at kitco tonight? Is the 15% fall for nickel right?

kinda glad I'm out of everything right now  
and crying like a little girl coz I'm not short


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## visual (15 May 2006)

*Re: How much RED for ASX200 on Monday?*

can someone please tell me why today of all days yahoo australia and yahoo uk shows the ftse as being about 40 points difference australia shows 40 less than the uk site ,in the red that is.


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## wayneL (15 May 2006)

*Re: How much RED for ASX200 on Monday?*



			
				visual said:
			
		

> can someone please tell me why today of all days yahoo australia and yahoo uk shows the ftse as being about 40 points difference australia shows 40 less than the uk site ,in the red that is.




Dunno Visual,

Try futuresource.com 

You'll get the futures price (delayed 20 minutes) as opposed to the cash, but there won't be a big difference... unless all hell breaks loose.


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## nizar (15 May 2006)

*Re: How much RED for ASX200 on Monday?*



			
				Kipp said:
			
		

> Sheesh, I'm glad a few of you can laugh at the days trading   (probably all selling short!)... "kill me" by Adam Sandler was all that was running through my head!!!
> 
> I'd be happy if it only slips another 40pts tomorrow!




im expecting 100pts + and the beginning of an october style 8% loss correction

thatll bring us back to around 4800-4900 on XJO

does anybody know what are the technical support levels?


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## michael_selway (15 May 2006)

*Re: How much RED for ASX200 on Monday?*



			
				nizar said:
			
		

> im expecting 100pts + and the beginning of an october style 8% loss correction
> 
> thatll bring us back to around 4800-4900 on XJO
> 
> does anybody know what are the technical support levels?




really that bearish?

its really hard to say, but what makes u think that?

thx

MS


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## ctp6360 (15 May 2006)

*Re: How much RED for ASX200 on Monday?*

all the stuff I'm reading tonight scares the living **** out of me, but based on my own gut feeling and my trading plan I think everything is set to bounce back, if not tomorrow, certainly by the end of the week....but people here have a LOT more experience than me, maybe I'm about to be taught a painful lesson? I'll take back all those drinks I offered YOUNG_TRADER and use the money for food!


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## Sean K (15 May 2006)

*Re: How much RED for ASX200 on Monday?*

Hang in there ctp!

People forget very quickly what a little correction is like. They happen a couple of times every year and this isn't even one of them yet! Another 4-6% to go!

So, hold on and be ready to grab a bargain in long term commodities bull!


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## ctp6360 (15 May 2006)

*Re: How much RED for ASX200 on Monday?*

thanks kennas, although I have never experienced it before first-hand, it is my gut feeling that this is a temporary stepping stone in an ultimately bullish market. I've noticed the tension building for a while and I think that a little bit of a sell off will actually make people MORE confident when the trend actually resumes, well that's what I hope.

I am definitely on the lookout for buying opportunities, although I'm thinking I should have listened to wayneL and started buying one day later....


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## wayneL (15 May 2006)

*Re: How much RED for ASX200 on Monday?*



			
				michael_selway said:
			
		

> really that bearish?
> 
> its really hard to say, but what makes u think that?
> 
> ...




Mick,

That's not really bearish at all. Look at the chart. I have drawn several trendline scenarios.

The market could retrace all the way to 4300 - 4400 and STILL be very bullish. We're so far from the mean it's ludicrous.

Cheers


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## ctp6360 (16 May 2006)

*Re: How much RED for ASX200 on Monday?*

The Dow Jones is in positive territory today, up only 0.19% but at least it isn't falling any more.

http://money.cnn.com/data/markets/dow/

I think this is a good sign that this dip/correction is only temporary and it will be very interesting 1) how the Dow Jones fairs for the rest of the day and 2) if the ASX follows suit again tomorrow.

I wish you bastards didn't teach me about watching commodities prices and foreign markets, now I'm going to end up trading all of them and just never sleeping, let alone preparing for the meeting I have tomorrow morning!


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## wavepicker (16 May 2006)

*Re: How much RED for ASX200 on Monday?*



			
				ctp6360 said:
			
		

> The Dow Jones is in positive territory today, up only 0.19% but at least it isn't falling any more.
> 
> http://money.cnn.com/data/markets/dow/
> 
> ...




ctp6360,
after 2 days and some 300 pts lost, the Dow is just taking a bit of a breather before the next leg down starts.

Personally I think if this is the early stage of the decline us bears have long anticipating. If this is the case, then a long term decline possibly all the way back to 3700-3800 would not be out of the question. That is the key long term level of support. If this high is the end of a long term 3rd wave(1200-5300) which I think it is, then 38.2 % retrace would be typical.

Cheers


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## Sean K (16 May 2006)

*Re: How much RED for ASX200 on Monday?*

Technically you might be right wavepicker, although I haven't analysed those numbers myself. 

Some people will argue that the general market has gone up for a fundamental reason, not on the back of speculation. PEs are still close to the historical mean. (Except for a lot of the specie stocks which are gambled on and don't even have PEs) 

Even though commodities do play a large part in the All Ords and ASX measures it's the big players (BHP, RIO, NCM, WPL) who make up a large % of the indicies and they are still on reasonable PEs. Thier fundamentals are sound.

During a correction like the one we may have started (or it could be a blip) it'll be the speculative/high PE/exploration stocks that are hammered and fall even more than the general market. The problem for a lot of new players to the market who use this site are that they are jumping on the speccies and not basing their portfolio on value. 

There is every chance they'll all spring back though. Look for bargains over the next few days.


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## YOUNG_TRADER (16 May 2006)

*Re: How much RED for ASX200 on Monday?*



			
				ctp6360 said:
			
		

> I'll take back all those drinks I offered YOUNG_TRADER and use the money for food!




:nono: Too late, I've already issued a margin call for those drinks, they had better be delivered in T+3 days, else your advisor account shall be suspeneded!  :drink:  :bier:  :alcohol:


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## YOUNG_TRADER (16 May 2006)

*Re: How much RED for ASX200 on Monday?*

On a serious note, I remember last year reading something about this pheneomenon called 'Sell in May and go away'

Ring any bells?

Also isn't this more of a cyclical thing, I could swear we had a huge sell off in May last year


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## professor_frink (16 May 2006)

*Re: How much RED for ASX200 on Monday?*



			
				YOUNG_TRADER said:
			
		

> On a serious note, I remember last year reading something about this pheneomenon called 'Sell in May and go away'
> 
> Ring any bells?
> 
> Also isn't this more of a cyclical thing, I could swear we had a huge sell off in May last year





have a look at this post from charttv- goes into performance month by month. It will give you a good rundown on the 'sell in may' theory.

https://www.aussiestockforums.com/forums/showthread.php?t=3336

last year we had a selloff that went from the end of march through to mid may.


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## professor_frink (16 May 2006)

*Re: How much RED for ASX200 on Monday?*

here's the spi monthly analysis-


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## bullmarket (16 May 2006)

*Re: How much RED for ASX200 on Monday?*

Hi nizar



			
				nizar said:
			
		

> im expecting 100pts + and the beginning of an october style 8% loss correction
> 
> thatll bring us back to around 4800-4900 on XJO
> 
> does anybody know what are the technical support levels?




re technical supports, below is a replay of my earlier post describing where I see general technical support for the XJO....and with the avge market PER's I posted yesterday I think it's quite possible that XJO could trade in the 4800-5000 range at some time in the next few weeks but I would be surprised if it fell below the 4800-5000 trading range from earlier this year.....unless of course there is some major bad local or OS news.

_hi ctp6360_ - good luck but beware the 'dead cat bounce'   




> I'm not convinced it's all doom n gloom yet looking at the weekly XJO chart.
> 
> It's too early for me to say whether this is the start of something more sinister....it may or may not be
> 
> ...




cheers

bullmarket


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## lewstherin (16 May 2006)

*Re: How much RED for ASX200 on Monday?*

Man today aint looking good either.
Discounted sell orders are stacking on pretty much every speccie I've either bought into or have been following...

Methinks I may get out and let the dust settle before returning!


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## YOUNG_TRADER (16 May 2006)

*Re: How much RED for ASX200 on Monday?*

Wish I had more money,

Would buy more JML, BMO, its like a Myer Bargain sale!

CBH if it drops lower as well


I'm not fussed @ all, for some reason, it doesn't seem to bother me that I'm giving back PROFITS, because the market will pick up again  

So I'm    right now, 

I'm surrounded by lawyers who are    :swear:   Sell Sell, I'm losing $80k omg, sell! 

I'm trying to tell them, but they don't want to listen


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## Sean K (16 May 2006)

*Re: How much RED for ASX200 on Monday?*

All three of those stocks _*could *_ be bargains right now. 

Although gold and silver have paused the slide, wait for Tocoms response. There still could be more pain.

I hope not, my 42ft ketch has turned into a 36footer.


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## coladuna (16 May 2006)

*Re: How much RED for ASX200 on Monday?*

Although I'm a little concerned with how the market went in the last few days, I think people are over-reacting WAY too much. Yeah, price of gold, oil and other base metals went down fair bit compared to few days ago but it's still very high and it seems like people are forgetting that they went up very quickly in a very short space of time. Hopefully, base metal prices and oil prices will recover tonight and sometime this week to put confidence back into commodities.


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## YOUNG_TRADER (16 May 2006)

*Re: How much RED for ASX200 on Monday?*



			
				coladuna said:
			
		

> Although I'm a little concerned with how the market went in the last few days, I think people are over-reacting WAY too much. Yeah, price of gold, oil and other base metals went down fair bit compared to few days ago but it's still very high and it seems like people are forgetting that they went up very quickly in a very short space of time. Hopefully, base metal prices and oil prices will recover tonight and sometime this week to put confidence back into commodities.





 :iagree: 

Copper was $6,000t just over a month ago, recently it tested $9000t, 50% in 1-2months  , now its dropped back to $8000t so what!

If it stays above $5000t most copper producers willbe sitting on Bonaza profits!


I am happy oild has dropped below $70 as it was the only dark horse that worried me,

And gold while worrying is still @ very high levels


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## LPA (16 May 2006)

*Re: How much RED for ASX200 on Monday?*

I agree...I don't understand why people are dumping mining stocks.  Well, I can understand getting rid of some that aren't producing - but all the other ones with actual producing mines are raking it in at the moment.  This little commodities correction is only cutting into their massive extra profit!

*sigh* is this just a case of investor panic?  Everyone was looking for any sign that we were going to see another tech-crash (stupid analogy in my opinion) and then when it shows they all bail?


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## bullmarket (16 May 2006)

*Re: How much RED for ASX200 on Monday?*

Hi LPA 

I don't think it's as simple as saying that the commodities corrrection is eating into already massive profits and so why dump mining stocks.

Generally speaking, imo it's basically anticipated EPS growth that drives up share prices of any stock and so if in this case if commodity prices tumble then at the very least investors and most likely traders could think that EPS growth will then be lower than first thought and hence share prices are marked down due to the lower growth....especially if they ran up too hard too fast, in relation to expected future earnings, recently.

Another way of looking at it is that yes although many company profits will still be higher this year than last year they might not be as high as the market thought they might be say a week or so ago.

hope this helps

cheers

bullmarket


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## LPA (16 May 2006)

*Re: How much RED for ASX200 on Monday?*

Yeah thanks, that does clear it up a bit.  Hopefully we will see metals rally again after this correction and then we can all rest easy once more


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## Jay-684 (16 May 2006)

*Re: How much RED for ASX200 on Monday?*

Unfortunately I bought fairly heavily into a number of Zinc stocks on Friday, so I've been hit rather hard!

This morning I was panicking, but as others have said this resource boom most probably has much more steam, so I'm staying in for now.

A 6% loss this week still has me at a 20% profit for the year so hopefully the bull will keep on keeping on over the coming months!

Any predictions on where its headed tomorrow?


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## Sean K (16 May 2006)

*Re: How much RED for ASX200 on Monday?*

Looks like they are steadying a little Ray, but don't be too complacent about things. It's going to be a very choppy ride.


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## GreatPig (18 May 2006)

*Re: How much RED for ASX200 on Thursday?*

Same again please Morris...

US down nearly 2%, FTSE down nearly 3%.

ASX down... ??

GP


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## Warren Buffet II (18 May 2006)

*Re: How much RED for ASX200 on Monday?*

ASX around 2% down.

I expect and hope commodities stock to go down 3%+, it will be healthy for the market.

WB


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## Jay-684 (18 May 2006)

*Re: How much RED for ASX200 on Monday?*

down 110 points so far!

its so hard seeing those profits slip away and resist selling

but I still hope things will turn around next week


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## bullmarket (18 May 2006)

*Re: How much RED for ASX200 on Monday?*

The ~5150 potential support for the XJO I posted earlier in this thread is looking very wobbly atm.

If inflation fears take a really strong grip then testing the next potential support in the 4800-5000 range (from Jan/Feb this year) becomes very likely imo in the next few weeks 

cheers

bullmarket


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## jet-r (18 May 2006)

*Re: How much RED for ASX200 on Monday?*

down to 5098 now...


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## bowser (18 May 2006)

*Re: How much RED for ASX200 on Monday?*

With all the selling again today I wonder if the ASX will experience 'technical difficulties'.....


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## LPA (18 May 2006)

*Re: How much RED for ASX200 on Monday?*

Well the buying began again at just under 5100.....I don't think it will last too long though   I guess this is the week we go under 5k again.

*edit* rallied 35 points.  I still don't have a good feeling about the rest of this week though


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## bullmarket (18 May 2006)

*Re: How much RED for ASX200 on Monday?*

I guess only time will tell LPA 

But remember that markets go down in waves just as they do when they go up.......so the point I'm making is..........beware of 'dead cat bounces'..  

cheers

bullmarket


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## LPA (18 May 2006)

*Re: How much RED for ASX200 on Monday?*

Just so I have this clear...

A 'dead cat bounce' is when the market declines rapidly, starts coming back up quite strongly, only to fall again rapidly.  Is this correct?


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## Mumbank (18 May 2006)

*Re: How much RED for ASX200 on Monday?*

Eeewww  I hate all those red arrows !!!  Makes me feel poorly.


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## bullmarket (18 May 2006)

*Re: How much RED for ASX200 on Monday?*



			
				LPA said:
			
		

> Just so I have this clear...
> 
> A 'dead cat bounce' is when the market declines rapidly, starts coming back up quite strongly, only to fall again rapidly.  Is this correct?




That's basically it LPA 

The saying comes from the analogy of someone throwing a cat out of say a 10 storey building and after it bounces up from the footpath it only manages to reach say the 5th floor before falling down again   

my apologies to any cat lovers in here  : 

cheers

bullmarket


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