# Dow Futures Up!



## Gundini (19 January 2009)

I always feel better when the US Futures are up before I go to bed.

There is some comforting about it 

Not that they really tell you anything, but better to see them up, than pictures of traders jumping through the window all the same....

I never forget when I think Wayne said in a post: " Dow futures down 300+ "

this actually excited me because I wasn't invested. By the same token, I felt for those who were, I have been there myself...

But positive US Futures allow me to have a better sleep!


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## MS+Tradesim (19 January 2009)

Earnings reporting starts this week. I wouldn't get too excited.


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## Gundini (19 January 2009)

True, but Obama is about to throw money out of the window!


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## MrBurns (19 January 2009)

Gundini said:


> True, but Obama is about to throw money out of the window!




I think Congress have had enough of that.


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## Gundini (19 January 2009)

MrBurns said:


> I think Congress have had enough of that.




On what basis do you say this MrBurns?


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## MrBurns (19 January 2009)

Gundini said:


> On what basis do you say this MrBurns?




I read (somewhere)  that it will be very hard to get much more through because it hasnt done any good so far, so it may be that the only option for Obama will be to restructure the financial system which has to be done in any case.


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## Glen48 (19 January 2009)

The dawn of a new error, what can go wrong?
Citi Bank joining Morgan Stanley and calling it Giti Morg has to be a good sign, Printers in demand and Helicopter pilots needed and Chinese word for pecker is Dow Dow so with the Dow up Mr. Burns you should sleep well and at worst not roll out of bed.
Good Night.


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## Gundini (19 January 2009)

Surely you jest Glen48, lol

I must say that your avatar is the funniest I have seen in a while.....

But seriously, the positive spin must outway the reality, at least for the induction period. 

There must be some reprieve here, if only for the short term.


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## MrBurns (19 January 2009)

Gundini said:


> There must be some reprieve here, if only for the short term.




2 weeks.


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## Gundini (19 January 2009)

MrBurns said:


> 2 weeks.




I'm not sure of that.

America is in a crisis, and I think the positive spin may fuel the mums and dads a bit longer than that... Maybe a few months


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## MrBurns (19 January 2009)

Gundini said:


> I'm not sure of that.
> 
> America is in a crisis, and I think the positive spin may fuel the mums and dads a bit longer than that... Maybe a few months




Could be, but be it 2 weeks or 2 months, the result will be the same.


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## Gundini (19 January 2009)

MrBurns said:


> Could be, but be it 2 weeks or 2 months, the result will be the same.




Agree!


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## Gundini (19 January 2009)

Gundini said:


> I always feel better when the US Futures are up before I go to bed.
> 
> There is some comforting about it
> 
> ...




Does anyone on this forum take the Dow Futures seriously as a guide?

Have you kept any data as to positive DOW Futures and the relation to a  positive day on the ASX? 

Is there any guide here?


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## MS+Tradesim (19 January 2009)

Look through Nick Radge's posts. He put up some interesting stats on that topic fairly recently.


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## MRC & Co (19 January 2009)

US closed tonight anyways for the holiday of the King I believe.

Got no stats on it, guess it depends on what time you took the US futs figures and the OZ figures.  

Reckon we may get a bit of hope this wk, but depends how much Asia and Europe buy it.  This morning was a good example, US rallied hard, Asia threw it to the wall.

Tradism, Radge' stats were on what the SPI does following a gap up or down, not on how likely the SPI will rally followed on from US futs being up or down the night before.


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## MS+Tradesim (19 January 2009)

Gundini,

Is this kind of what you're after?

https://www.aussiestockforums.com/forums/showpost.php?p=382508&postcount=11


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## MS+Tradesim (19 January 2009)

MRC & Co said:


> Tradism, Radge' stats were on what the SPI does following a gap up or down, not on how likely the SPI will rally followed on from US futs being up or down the night before.




"The table below shows how the XAO reacts to an o/night move in the US. "
https://www.aussiestockforums.com/forums/showpost.php?p=382508&postcount=11


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## sammy84 (19 January 2009)

MrBurns said:


> Could be, but be it 2 weeks or 2 months, the result will be the same.




2 months of confidence could change this whole market around and get the ball rolling. In my opinion its a crisis of confidence that is changing this from a recession to a very very nasty recession. I'm not saying that things will be rosy then either.



Gundini said:


> Does anyone on this forum take the Dow Futures seriously as a guide?
> 
> Have you kept any data as to positive DOW Futures and the relation to a  positive day on the ASX?
> 
> Is there any guide here?




Haven't been keeping data, but from memory I know since about late December the futures have been a pretty accurate portrayal of what the US is going to do and subsequently the ASX. If the volatility returns however, the futures will be useless again.


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## MRC & Co (19 January 2009)

MS+Tradesim said:


> "The table below shows how the XAO reacts to an o/night move in the US. "
> https://www.aussiestockforums.com/forums/showpost.php?p=382508&postcount=11




Yes, but from the OP, it appears the question is, "if I go to bed now and the DOW futures are up, what is the likelihood the OZ market will move higher the following day".  Depends what time you go to bed, and what time you record the OZ market the following day.  

But you may be right Tradism.


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## MrBurns (19 January 2009)

sammy84 said:


> 2 months of confidence could change this whole market around and get the ball rolling. In my opinion its a crisis of confidence that is changing this from a recession to a very very nasty recession. I'm not saying that things will be rosy then either.




It's not confidence in my opinion, it's fundamentals, there's too much debt out there, too much borrowing took place on the expectation that prices of everything would just go up forever, well 10 years was about as long as that worked, now it's over.

Rates are down, petrol is cheap, and KRudd has given everyone a grand and still we're going backwards, no not confidence, the whole financial system has broken because it was built on BS.


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## MS+Tradesim (19 January 2009)

MRC & Co said:


> Yes, but from the OP, it appears the question is, "if I go to bed now and the DOW futures are up, what is the likelihood the OZ market will move higher the following day".  Depends what time you go to bed, and what time you record the OZ market the following day.
> 
> But you may be right Tradism.




I'm only pointing out what Nick said, and pointing to his post because it *may* be relevant for Gundini. IMO, any correlation between US futs before bed time and XAO will be several steps removed from any correlation between close of US equities and XAO. But I haven't checked it out. I don't have a clue.


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## MS+Tradesim (19 January 2009)

MrBurns said:


> KRudd has given everyone a grand and still we're going backwards,




Apparently, a lot of that ended up in the pokies so maybe some licensee's are doing ok.


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## Gundini (19 January 2009)

MS+Tradesim said:


> Gundini,
> 
> Is this kind of what you're after?
> 
> https://www.aussiestockforums.com/forums/showpost.php?p=382508&postcount=11




Yes exactly:

But I don't really understand the stats. Are they stating that over a year the DOW rebounds irrespective of what the SPI does?



sammy84 said:


> Haven't been keeping data, but from memory I know since about late December the futures have been a pretty accurate portrayal of what the US is going to do and subsequently the ASX. If the volatility returns however, the futures will be useless again.




Can't imagine there is a corelation really outside of the obvious, but does anyone find this benefitial to their trading?



MRC & Co said:


> Yes, but from the OP, it appears the question is, "if I go to bed now and the DOW futures are up, what is the likelihood the OZ market will move higher the following day".  Depends what time you go to bed, and what time you record the OZ market the following day.
> 
> But you may be right Tradism.




Depending what time you go to bed is probably as accurate as we can get to the future!


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## MrBurns (19 January 2009)

MS+Tradesim said:


> Apparently, a lot of that ended up in the pokies so maybe some licensee's are doing ok.




Pokies, Harvey Norman, kept the retailers going for 5 minutes, see what happens to them in the next few months.


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## Gundini (19 January 2009)

MRC & Co said:


> US closed tonight anyways for the holiday of the King I believe.
> 
> Got no stats on it, guess it depends on what time you took the US futs figures and the OZ figures.
> 
> ...




They may be closed but they are moving around on Bloomberg. 

Dropped around 20 points in the last hour!

http://www.bloomberg.com/markets/stocks/futures.html


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## Trembling Hand (19 January 2009)

They are open for the European session.

I really don't know what you are going to take out of pre-open futs other than where the market is going to open. You are dreaming if you think they are giving you an indication of the days direction AFTER open.


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## Gundini (19 January 2009)

Trembling Hand said:


> They are open for the European session.
> 
> I really don't know what you are going to take out of pre-open futs other than where the market is going to open. You are dreaming if you think they are giving you an indication of the days direction AFTER open.




That's a fair comment, and I don't expect anything really.

I am interested though if anybody has any data on the subject. 

All I know now is that I feel better that the futures are up, and the knowers aren't planning to crash the market in the morning! 

If that was their plan, I suspect we would know by now.

I suppose I am just asking if anybody has found a correlation, or more precisely an edge?


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## Trembling Hand (19 January 2009)

In a bull market you actually don't want up opens.  Believe me I have the stats.

In a Bear market it simply doesn't matter.  Believe me I have the stats.
Up open or down open.


By the way there is an edge but its not a simple one. It all depends on previous days as to what happens when you get gaps from the open.


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## nomore4s (20 January 2009)

TH, on a slightly different subject do you have any stats on -

Monday open is lower than Mondays close (up day) and whether this has any correlation to Friday closing higher - at or close to its weekly highs?

or vice versa

Monday open is higher than Mondays close (down day) and Friday closing lower?

It might be more relevent if Mondays open & close are at opposite ends of the daily bar - if there is any relevence at all.

It is just something I've been looking at with stocks but haven't done any stats on yet.

Thanks


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## Glen48 (20 January 2009)

Once again I am with you Mr. B I reckon on 2 weeks, word is Gold is going to rocket next month, things are now changing by the hour like some horror  movie were reports are coming in from all over the World, we have to hope B O get this crown with out some Redneck doing him in.
I heard the word Depression mention 3 times tonight first time ever in that context.


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## Gundini (20 January 2009)

Anyway, the Dow Futures are not up!

But they are heading in the right direction to possibly be up by the market open.

Earlier in the day they were down 135 odd, and now down 70.

How do these futures move?

Considering most of the US is sleeping, is it the other country Index Futures Traders that move the futures?

How does it work? I mean who moves these futures?


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## drsmith (20 January 2009)

Having watch the Dow Futures over the past few months I don't put much faith in it as an indicator of where the US markets will end on the day unless it's a big move combined with some overall market moving event. 

The european markets though move somewhat in sync with variations in the Dow Futures however.


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## Gundini (20 January 2009)

Yes, agree Dr, still a fairly good move tonight from 135 to 41 down,

and the Big Event, Obama, telling the world it's all good?


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## drsmith (20 January 2009)

One good thing about guessing which way will go on any given day is that there is about a 50% chance of being right.

On that basis I'll guess that on Obama's big day the Dow will be down and that if it is not it will be below present levels by the end of the week.


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## Glen48 (20 January 2009)

How the new car business is traveling...Not
Makes you wonder about other Mass produced items.

http://globaleconomicanalysis.blogs...images-from-around-world.html?ref=patrick.net


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## Glen48 (20 January 2009)

SBS tonight a series about the 1930 Stock market crash.


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## Aussiejeff (21 January 2009)

drsmith said:


> One good thing about guessing which way will go on any given day is that there is about a 50% chance of being right.
> 
> On that basis *I'll guess that on Obama's big day the Dow will be down* and that if it is not it will be below present levels by the end of the week.




Good guess


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## Aussiejeff (21 January 2009)

Glen48 said:


> How the new car business is traveling...Not
> Makes you wonder about other Mass produced items.
> 
> http://globaleconomicanalysis.blogs...images-from-around-world.html?ref=patrick.net




Maybe the car companies could take a leaf out of the oil producer's book - and hire aircraft carriers to 
store unsold "surplus" vehicles offshore? 

LOL

Hey, on reflection we could start storing surplus villains on floating convict ships too! I'm a flamin' genius!!!


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## Gundini (30 January 2009)

DJIA INDEX 8,295.00 +202.00 

So these futures are a joke right!

http://www.bloomberg.com/markets/stocks/futures.html

I can't fall for this, must be a mistake


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## Gundini (30 January 2009)

DJIA INDEX 8,227.00 -95.00 

There we go, it was a mistake!

I feel better now...

Thought I was going mad at the minute...


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## Aussiejeff (30 January 2009)

Gundini said:


> DJIA INDEX 8,227.00 -95.00
> 
> There we go, *it was a mistake*!
> 
> ...




Actually, it ended at ..

DJIA INDEX 8,149.01 *-226.44*

A BIG mistake.


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## Gundini (17 February 2009)

DOW futures not happy again tonight, down 123, but only 150 points from the 7500 level.

A breach of this level may produce the next leg down to ????.

Early days yet, but


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## sandybeachs (8 May 2009)

*U.S after hours futures*

i hope i'm posting this in the right forum 

just checking futures, they've improved over the past 30 minutes..

see below link.

http://money.cnn.com/data/afterhours/


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## seasprite (8 May 2009)

*Re: U.S after hours futures*



sandybeachs said:


> i hope i'm posting this in the right forum
> 
> just checking futures, they've improved over the past 30 minutes..
> 
> ...




volumes are so low to even consider. It is not until after our market has closed volumes start picking up.


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