# What type of market are we in?



## Rob_ee (25 May 2007)

As a 5 month newbie could the seasoned traders please comment on what type of market we are in at the moment ... Bull, Bear, Sideways, Uncertain ??? or any other terminology.

My guess (only) would be uncertain ... reason.. nothing I buy has really taken off.
Hence my dilema, I am trying hard to let my winners run, however I seem to be giving back a lot.

MOST Recent trades

WMT  .345   High .39   stopped out .365
PEN    .084   High .115   stopped out .10
AAR    .083  High .105  stopped out .099
PDN    8.53  High 9.57  stopped out 9.21
GME    1.08 High 1.14   stopped out 1.01
AXM   .58   High .68  still holding (bought today)
ESG    .44   High .45  still Holding

From above trades last 2 months  my biggest loss has been $284 best profit $826.
Nothing has really run for me ...

5 months isn't really a long time BUT I would love to get at least 1 runner.
Is this the best I can expect under present conditions, perhaps I should only be concentrating on the higher priced stocks?

Am I limited with my trading capital $18k available?


Any views fellow traders?

Rob


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## nizar (25 May 2007)

Timely sector rotation can be very profitable.

Notice how all your stocks are in the uranium sector (mostly).

Iv noticed ever since April 29 that oil&gas sector has been running, alot of money coming in and i suspect thats coming from the uranium sector.

Iv been buying oilers lately not because of any preference but because they are the ones that have been breaking out.

Check out NWE/AED/PPP/NDO.


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## bvbfan (26 May 2007)

We are well into a bull market, I would say we are at the later stages of that bull market. But it could continue up for another 1-2yrs.

Seems you are doing ok trading wise but it could also be said anyone can make money in a bull market, it's whether you can make money in a bear market which will determine your success.


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## It's Snake Pliskin (26 May 2007)

nizar said:


> Timely sector rotation can be very profitable.
> 
> Notice how all your stocks are in the uranium sector (mostly).
> 
> ...




Rob,

I agree there seems to be money moving into oilers. I have two in ROC(which grew a tail) and WPL.

Mentally I am prepared for a turn in the market at any stage as there is more to it than just letting them run. Some people are making the equivalent of a weekly wage from a quarter of your capital and they are not proficient in traditional security analysis or TA. I suspect though times will get tough for them at some stage.

Spread your accepted risk amongst the best of each sector performing well. 

Nizar,
What is your stop level on PPP?


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## nizar (26 May 2007)

It's Snake Pliskin said:


> Rob,
> 
> I agree there seems to be money moving into oilers. I have two in ROC(which grew a tail) and WPL.
> 
> ...




I only bought PPP after that big 4mil volume upday. Long term chart cannot be faulted. Stop set at a close at or below 21.5c. Pretty aggressive than normal for my stops.

I think its been pretty textbook so far, pullback to the breakout point iv seen it many times, on decreased volume i like.


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## nizar (26 May 2007)

It's Snake Pliskin said:


> Some people are making the equivalent of a weekly wage from a quarter of your capital and they are not proficient in traditional security analysis or TA. I suspect though times will get tough for them at some stage.




Tend to agree with Snake here.... because.... I used to be one of these guys!

I started out last january with only about $10k.
I made $1k per week just about everyweek through holding LHG, OXR, and KZL, until i got to $26k......
And then the May correction came   

ANd yep, the 1st day of it, i lost $2.5k, the first week about $8k, and more pain to come. Ended up giving back ALOT of profit.

I was just another bullmarket champion who knew nothing about stops, and nothing about risk, or money management or anything. Exits? What does that mean? LOL.

But yeh.... taught me a big lesson...


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## tech/a (26 May 2007)

Its a bullmarket.

But you need to ask that question realtive (at times) to timeframe.


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## PureCoco (26 May 2007)

nizar said:


> Timely sector rotation can be very profitable.
> 
> Notice how all your stocks are in the uranium sector (mostly).
> 
> ...




Depends if you want fast money or long term holdings.  I don't believe that Uranium is over.  Much of the hype was about Uranium happened as the spot price literally soared last year and many smaller explorers came in.  

Many have quality land and with the drill results due soon things may change.  I don't believe Uranium has had its day.  It is a matter of longer term holding.  Have people forgotten all the new Nuclear plants due to begin construction (let alone the ones on line) this year and the next following years and the amounts of Uranium needed to run them over the next decades.

I do believe the gas and oil interest has a place though as stated in a thread begun by me, many of them took off (Oil and Gas) at the begining of May seems a little to orchestrated.  AED, MPO, NWE, OSH and others took off on the same day.  A little strange considering they all have vastly different fundamentals.

I began with $3K  6 months ago and have seen over a 200% change in my portfoilo.  It is in various fields.  My only advise as a new person is do your reading thoroughly don't just follow the crowd as they change like the wind. I am with tech/a, it is a bull market.


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## disarray (26 May 2007)

your stops seem really aggressive. i bought into AAR around the same time as you but my stop is sitting around 0.064, just under the 30 week moving average (i think i should bump it up a bit). a stock on a breakout needs room to move and if you want to let it run then you need to give it room to trade. jamming a stop right up the stocks backside will get you stopped out on its first swing, which is great if you want to trade a fast profit but not if you want to take it for a long profitable ride.


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## Rob_ee (26 May 2007)

disarray said:


> your stops seem really aggressive. i bought into AAR around the same time as you but my stop is sitting around 0.064, just under the 30 week moving average (i think i should bump it up a bit). a stock on a breakout needs room to move and if you want to let it run then you need to give it room to trade. jamming a stop right up the stocks backside will get you stopped out on its first swing, which is great if you want to trade a fast profit but not if you want to take it for a long profitable ride.




Thanks for all your comments people ... re to aggressive stops, a real dilemma.... that's one thing I am fanatical about, did a lot of reading before I started trading and the one thing that kept repeating over and over ..DON'T sit and hope.

I have a maximum 10% of purchase price drop from High once I have bought.
With my bank I believe that no more than 3 trades can be open at any one time. Once I am at break even I want to widen the stop BUT so far no real break outs for me.

Re.. disarrays example (not saying its bad) AAR from .083 to worst .064 would give back 25% in worst case scenario, I just can't afford to many 25%'s in a row.

Looking back on my last 2 months

WMT .345 High .39 stopped out .365   LAST .30
PEN .084 High .115 stopped out .10     LAST .085
AAR .083 High .105 stopped out .099   LAST .085
PDN 8.53 High 9.57 stopped out 9.21   LAST 8.75
GME 1.08 High 1.14 stopped out 1.01   LAST 1.00
AXM .58 High .68 still holding (bought today)  LAST .575
ESG .44 High .45 still Holding          LAST .435

So as you can see If I had let any of the above run I would have been miles worse of than taking agressive stops.

SO THE REAL REASON for my question

AXM bought at .58 since MS gave it as a near term re-trace from a all time HIGH which is my ENTRY criteria.

Watched it go from .58 to .68 and than CRASH to a close of .575 on a day when the general market was all RED ... Thats a 10c drop OR a $1000 potential loss since my (worst) stop was .53

If we are in a BULL market than I may be in a bit of trouble if this sort of thing continues to happen.
What will the BEAR do to me ... 
Rob


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## disarray (26 May 2007)

you seem to be of 2 minds as to your strategy. are you trading or investing? you are acting like a trader (aggressive) but seeking long term outcomes which rely on methodical conservatism. what i think you are seeking (from your method / desired outcome) is a stock that is about to break out. when you learn how to pick them please let me know


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## motorway (26 May 2007)

We are in a bull Market

But that is not a straight line
It is a series of highs and lows
To go up...it goes down first 
and often needs to go sideways for a while too

When a wave of action dissipates
Then it's time to go down and sideways again

ebb and flow

TA is all about being in step
TA is all about 

TIMING

(among other things, timing what, is important too )

motorway


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## motorway (26 May 2007)

needs to go sideways or down ?

needs to build a stepping  stone ?

last bar on the bar chart has some springing action
A spring in  an uptrend
The downward stride ran into demand
large vol bar..
close in the middle ( nearer the high would have made it a valid spring )

Past the halfway point of the last rally of smaller magnitude..

trend lines are all valid 

the green lines are defining the main action on this time frame
( reverse use of trend lines )

Move has run out of energy ( p&f is extended and crabbing sideways )

time to build more potential
wash out profit taking..

mkt trend sustains itself by rotation

look for the areas of relative strength emerging..

motorway


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## Rob_ee (26 May 2007)

disarray said:


> you seem to be of 2 minds as to your strategy. are you trading or investing? you are acting like a trader (aggressive) but seeking long term outcomes which rely on methodical conservatism. what i think you are seeking (from your method / desired outcome) is a stock that is about to break out. when you learn how to pick them please let me know




I really, really , really want to be an investor but this market has made me a trader.

In the past 5 months only one stock has gotten away from me.

SMY bought mid 2.40 went as high as 3.50 retraced 50c to 3.00 (gave back $1200) where I got stoped out ... went back 15% (rising stop from 10% max)
Went as high as 5.65 and now back to 4.43. (Where is that crystal ball)

Everything else I enter seems to go up nicely 10-20% but then plumets back just as quickly.

Hence my original question ... a real BULL market 1-2 years ago... did the same thing happen ???? or did they just keep rising.

I believe I am in the right sector at the moment  90% Materials and 10% Energy in my MS exploration.

There are about 200 stocks only it scans
ONLY 4 penny dreadfuls , AAR  MLS   PEN   WMT

My cheapest oiler is ESG  the most expensive BPT
I only trade stocks with a daily average >250000 Vol which should be liquid enough if I get into trouble.

All others are mid tier 50c to 2.50 mostly with PDN the most expensive.
So there should be some good quality prospects in there... MOST actually produce something only about 25% are exploring.

I have stopped reading annoncements cause management doesnt always tell the truth and by the time I read it the insiders have already acted.

And I only buy NEAR all time highs.

So I believe I am on the right track.  It just annoys me when I (paper profit) lose $1000 during 1 day (AXM friday) which prompted this whole thread ... just venting i guess


Rob


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## Julia (26 May 2007)

motorway said:


> We are in a bull Market
> 
> But that is not a straight line





Rob ee
Motorway is right, and Tech made a similar point.

You might be more comfortable buying some blue chips and taking a long term view if you are uncomfortable with the dips and/or corrections.
I am also significantly down Thursday and Friday.  My stocks will recover and go on to new highs.  I am not going to fret about it in the meantime.
Your stops seem very tight.


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## tech/a (26 May 2007)

Rob

You dont have to go that far back it happened here on the chart above.


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## krisbarry (26 May 2007)

I thought we were in a period of a "correction" but all the news both here and overseas suggest there is no need for a correction.  So with that in mind I have jumped back into geared Australian shares.


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## AnalysisParalysis (26 May 2007)

I can't resist.

We're in a stock market.


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## nizar (26 May 2007)

Stop_the_clock said:


> I thought we were in a period of a "correction" but all the news both here and overseas suggest there is no need for a correction.  So with that in mind I have jumped back into geared Australian shares.




Good stuff STC.
Now that youve missed out on heaps of gains from being on the sidelines (which is riskier than being in the market, during a bullmarket, in my opinion), youve probably jumped back in right in time for the correction 

Now wouldnt that be karma for someone who used to repeatedly wish that a crash would come just because you were cashed-up.


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## Julia (26 May 2007)

nizar said:


> Good stuff STC.
> Now that youve missed out on heaps of gains from being on the sidelines (which is riskier than being in the market, during a bullmarket, in my opinion), youve probably jumped back in right in time for the correction
> 
> Now wouldnt that be karma for someone who used to repeatedly wish that a crash would come just because you were cashed-up.




Just what I was thinking, Nizar.


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## Rob_ee (6 June 2007)

They say all good things come to those that wait
Well its early days yet BUT it just may be that I have a potential runner.

Still holding AXM from .58 and and ESG from .44 so maybe after 5 months waiting one of these may be a goer for me.

AXM seems the better prospect, making new highs , however there are practically no sellers left. I don't know if that is a good or bad thing.

I have moved my AXM stop to .63  and ESG  to .50

Hopefully i'll be in for a while.
Incidentally this is my first May and June in the markets.
I thought that these were supposed to be the worst months (based on some of the threads) .... for me they are (so far) the best ?

Rob


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