# AZR - Aztec Resources



## RichKid (8 September 2004)

Hey folks!

Anyone interested in Aztec Resources AZR, AZROA(options)?

Currently AZR is bouncing between 10c and 11c.

It's got a high grade Iron ore project on Koolan Island in WA and big international investors (eg CITIC (multi billion dollar Chinese state owned co), Societe Generale). Also a Tantulum project in the Kimberley, but I haven't heard much about it.

Looks like it's struggling to complete the right shoulder of a Head and Shoulders reversal pattern. Maybe the start of an uptrend or further sideways movement. Brokers have it valued at between 20c and 24c (See www.aztecresources.com.au for broker reports etc).

Makes me wonder if it's creating a base from which to rise again as 10c has provided considerable support.

Aztec also has a high profile, highly experienced chairman (Ian Burston, ex-Portman mining) and hope to start producing by 2H 2005. BFS to be completed by Jan/Feb 2005. It's listed on the London Stock Exchange AIM and the Berlin Stock Exchange.

I can't understand why all the positive news has not resulted in a price rise- maybe it was expected or people have forgotten about the company because of oil and gold.

(The options AZROA are very volatile at the moment.)

Any views? Observations on technicals or fundamentals?

RichKid


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## Joe Blow (8 September 2004)

*Re: AZR Aztec Resources- Little guy going Up?*

Hi Rich!

crocdee picked AZR for September's Stock Tipping Competition.

I haven't done much research on it just yet but it's certainly an interesting one and has made its way onto my watchlist.


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## RichKid (8 September 2004)

*Re: AZR Aztec Resources- Little guy going Up?*

Hi Joe,

Thanks for that, didn't realize it had been picked- so many entries now, good to see the list growing! 

There's also a free broker report of AZR at aer.com.au (a good site for free reviews- no price targets though for the free versions). 

I was also trying to get a chart up for AZR showing the H&S pattern over the last year (OHLC) but can't figure out where to find free charts to post here- any tips about where I can find one in future?

I don't use personal charting software or I could have done it myself.

Thanks,
RichKid


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## RichKid (25 September 2004)

*Re: AZR Aztec Resources- Little guy going Up?*

Okay, I've found a place to get free charts from (BigCharts). As I understand it they're completely free and there is no trial period so I can keep using it- what a relief to be able to use charts (I love TA!!!).

This first chart is to show the head and shoulders pattern, although it may not turn out to be a reversal as all the fundamentals are strong (see posts above). Still, the TA odds are in favour of a downturn as volume corresponds to the classical pattern. Only the odd shape of the shoulders is worrying but 10c has solid support. If it doesn't complete the reversal in the next two weeks I'd think the reversal has failed.

(Hope you find this useful Crocdee)

RichKid


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## RichKid (25 September 2004)

*Re: AZR Aztec Resources- Little guy going Up?*

And these are the options AZROA. I expect it to fall back to about 0.003 again and to trade between 0.003 and 0.006c but it's a bit too early to call it that accurately yet. 

RichKid


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## RichKid (2 November 2004)

*Re: AZR Aztec Resources- Little guy going Up?*

Well, looks like that support is holding for AZR, and AZROA is trading more or less as predicted (except 0.006 is looking too high now). (See charts above). The positive resource estimates will keep it going sideways till it resumes the uptrend IMO. Question now is will it fall back to 10c support or find higher support?

 I've been in and out of AZROA- anyone else trying this? Risk is high now for AZROA as it may step down to a new support level but the underlying share AZR is knocking on 14c so it may keep the option at the current level.

Anyone else following AZR or AZROA? Any views? Fundamentals are strong for the non TA people.


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## crocdee (16 November 2004)

*Re: AZR Aztec Resources- Little guy going Up?*

ian burston is in china this week. they need $60mil to build the port. a deal with the chinese should give the sp a kick and get the oppies home. should also help get the bankable feasibility over the line. a positive announcement maybe next week. my thoughts only.

regards croc


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## RichKid (23 November 2004)

*Re: AZR Aztec Resources- Little guy going Up?*

That's interesting Croc, thanks. Looks like the market is ready for some action now as the stock has woken up from it's lazy 10c-12c range. Let's hope Burston has some luck in China. sp falling to 14c (support?), options plummeting too- coming close to expiry (Jan 05). Let's see where this settles.


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## crocdee (24 November 2004)

*Re: AZR Aztec Resources- Little guy going Up?*

hi richkid
i don't have any doubt about this stock it is only a matter of time but they really need to get the oppies over the line. they have until 31-1-05 and there is $25mil at stake. i wish i had some more money to buy more at these levels.

regards croc


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## RichKid (19 December 2004)

*Re: AZR Aztec Resources- Little guy going Up?*

Hi Croc,

Well looks like they've got the funding to finalise things- hope these oppies (AZROA) get going- a bit cheap at $0.003 in my opinion (AZR at $0.155) but it depends on how AZR is going to travel- I can see it at 20c+ just don't know why it isn't getting there- hopefully there'll be some success with the current work before the oppies expire and it'll jump as it did recently. 

Are you thinking of buying in now that they've got funding? I hope to have some soon to sell on the next leg up- $0.003 is providing good support (touchwood!!). Might drop to $0.002 but volumes are tiny (ie only a few hundred dollars worth the last time it fell there) and the AZR price was lower.

Noticed that AZR rises before annoucements and then settles a bit lower- no firm trend though. With iron ore prices expected to do really well next year this'll be a goer. The market should notice it soon- a real alternative to the blue chips IMO for exposure to iron ore.


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## crocdee (20 December 2004)

*Re: AZR Aztec Resources- Little guy going Up?*

hi rich

i don't think they have full funding yet to build the port and definetly no news on any contracts with china at this stage. bfs is not complete yet they got $3mil last week to progress it. md is also have talks with the japanese.

things are looking good but it all takes longer to put it all in place than we would like.

i would buy more but don't have any funds left am into mul too heavily and will ride it out.

it's just a matter of time with azr it will happen fast when it all starts and i thinkn it's no too far away. the new year will reveal all.

regards croc


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## RichKid (24 December 2004)

*Re: AZR Aztec Resources- Little guy going Up?*

Hi Croc,
Yep, still a lot to sort out- good news from my point of view is that further resource upgrades or discoveries may be possible, especially with the extra cash. I think that may push it past 16c and maybe on to 20c. Any deal with the Chinese or Japanese to complete the works you mention would be the key. 

AZROA- the short time to expiry seems to be killing the oppies; funny how it all comes down to the last few weeks with holidays and all that. At least there's still a good chance with this one.

I can't see all those big instos sitting on the register and doing nothing. Next few weeks will see some action IMO. All broker reports sofar value it at 20c+ (see posts at start of thread).

I haven't heard of any recent reports (last six months) let me know if you hear any news please.


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## crocdee (28 December 2004)

*Re: AZR Aztec Resources- Little guy going Up?*

hi rich

the only news i can report that hasn't specificaly been mentioned to date [ and which you may already know] is that the chinese were here in perth being entertained  by the md 2 weeks before xmas. i'm sure something will eventuate from there the koolan island project is too big for it to fizzle out and with $25mil in the oppies to expire worthless by the end of january doesn't fit with logic [but it could happen] however i still think azr is a winner especially at its last close of 15c. once again it's a waiting game of which i'm prepared to back the md.

have a happy new year croc
ps i think you should research MML ALL THE REPORTS ARE ON THE ASX 
i've said it a few times here but noone has taken the challenge. if you think AZR have the goods check out MML and tell me if i'm wrong.
regards croc


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## RichKid (29 December 2004)

*Re: AZR Aztec Resources- Little guy going Up?*

Hey Croc,
I was wondering where the Chinese had disappeared to- glad they were being looked after. Let's hope it works out, as you say it's unlikely they'll let 25m just go like that- also with a huge chinese investor in the stock already I can't see why we wont have some news before then; at these price levels AZR only needs a bit of promising info on the chinese deal to climb to 20c. Things always slow down during holiday periods. Next two weeks will clinch it or maybe they'll keep us on edge till the last minute. 

I noticed an article in the Australian, Intersuisse mentioned AZR and tipped it to be one of the handful of juniour resource winners next year: http://www.theaustralian.news.com.au/common/story_page/0,5744,11793162%5E643,00.html

As for MML Medusa Mining, I've had a look, hope you were holding when they ran to 70c. I'll find the thread on it and post more.


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## RichKid (29 December 2004)

*Re: AZR Aztec Resources- Little guy going Up?*

Here's details of the last major announcement referred to above. Might help the 'fundamentalists' if you folks need more info.

Note the last line on upcoming drilling results- this short-term (good) news may get the oppies (AZROA) over the line. 

An announcement about a deal with the Chinese would help as well, as discussed above. The fpo's (AZR at about 15c at the moment) have much less risk than AZROA and is going to make it to over 20c easily imo, just a matter of whether it'll happen in January or February. This is not a recommendation and time will tell if I'm right.



> From Mineweb.net:
> 
> Aztec Resources
> Posted Thu, 09 Dec 2004
> ...


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## RichKid (1 January 2005)

*Re: AZR Aztec Resources- Little guy going Up?*

Noticed that Aztec have got a mention in the January edition of Shares Mag- there's a section on junior miners and Aztec is considered one that will be re-rated once it completes the BFS stage. The lower risk profile is described as the trigger once the preliminary work is completed, especially with rising iron ore prices. (Thanks to Ghotib in another thread for mentioning the article.)

The next three weeks will see a lot happening for junior resources stocks as people see the cycle continuing, people will be back from holidays as well.


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## crocdee (3 January 2005)

*Re: AZR Aztec Resources- Little guy going Up?*

hi rich

yep january has to be a big month for AZR, they have too munch in the ground for it not to happen.

bring it on baby.
croc


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## crocdee (4 January 2005)

*Re: AZR Aztec Resources- Little guy going Up?*

hi rich

news just to hand CBA have increased their holding as of 30-12-04.
sounds promising fingers crossed

regards croc


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## RichKid (4 January 2005)

*Re: AZR Aztec Resources- Little guy going Up?*

Hi Croc,
Yes, looks like CBA have increased their current holding by 20% to 6%. They must be preparing for the activity that is to follow. Maybe they'll want to get in if there is an opportunity for debt finance. 

My understanding as far as expected news is that the drilling has continued since the last upgrade in October. Which means they should be announcing any further upgrades this month- or have they taken an extended break due to the holidays?? No suggestions of such a break and announcements are generally limited to a few a month so maybe they'll just announce it all of a sudden just before the funding for the wharf (if the Chinese help out- or maybe some local banks now that CBA has joined)?

Acacia and Barramundi ore bodies- continuing drilling is expected to lead to a further upgrade (see October annoucements). Just a matter of whether the news will come in the next two weeks.  The good thing with AZR is that when they make an annoucement it's usually something important (unlike some junior oil explorers) but in between annoucements it's pretty quiet.


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## RichKid (4 January 2005)

*Re: AZR Aztec Resources- Little guy going Up?*

Found the bit about what to expect in January 2005. Also noted that work on Jetty and related survey work has commenced, so all systems are go once they get a bit of extra money to see it through. The oppies would certainly help if they come through.



> From the AGM presentation 25Nov04- see annoucements:
> 
> ...Drilling work is continuing particularly with respect to infill and
> geotechnical programmes and updated resource estimates will
> ...


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## crocdee (4 January 2005)

*Re: AZR Aztec Resources- Little guy going Up?*

hi rich
well it does look great for AZR. these bits and pieces all take time to put together[longer than us traders would like] however the light at the end of the tunnel here is a fire.

this is what i think the play will be with regards to announcements this month
1 completion of bfs proving it's a goer and now backed by Societe General   Group.
2 finalisation of deal with chinese with financial support.
3 results of continued drilling on Acacia and Barramundi ore bodies which will lead to further upgrades.

all to happen before january 31 which will bring the 20c oppies well into the money.

now how do you like those little apples
regards croc


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## RichKid (5 January 2005)

*Re: AZR Aztec Resources- Little guy going Up?*

Hi Croc,
Yes, certainly looks positive- the market depth for AZR certainly proves it, lots of orders either side of 15c. 16c is the resistance level imo that will need to be broken for it to go 20c+, the market is sitting just short of it waiting for any good excuse to fly through it imo.

My only concern is your first point in your last post, the BSF looks well advanced but they'll need to announce it before the end of the month for it to affect the oppies, knowing AZR this'll happen suddenly but since they don't release regular tid bits of info we'll have to wait, it may even be early Feb but if the other two bit of news you mention turn out well the oppies will be ok regardless of the BSF. Even a very positive resource upgrade alone will be good enough imo as the last run was on the back of an upgrade. This is even before considering the unexplored areas on Koolan which will be drilled over the next year. There's also the Tantulum and rare metals project in the Kimberleys which has taken a back seat for now. Hence the market re-focus on AZR is clearly not surprising, it's been a long road but it's finally coming to fruition.  

Also noted that part of the finance arrangements saw the shares valued at 23c so that's is the minimum to be expected now for the sp valuation in the short term (next two months or sooner imo); it's the transition stage risk premium that's keeping the sp down in the short term. sp also falls away when no news is expected (as it did when it fell to solid support at 10c last year, an easy gain of 50% for those who knew and bought AZR then) so its continued strenght at 15c suggests confidence in the upcoming news.


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## RichKid (7 January 2005)

*Re: AZR Aztec Resources- Little guy going Up?*

Stumbled on this while searching for info.

Use Google and type in 'aztec resources fat' and checkout some early stock analyst reports on AZR. I didn't post it direct for copyright reasons. It's totally free.


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## crocdee (7 January 2005)

*Re: AZR Aztec Resources- Little guy going Up?*

hi rich

went to the site had a quick look around but only found really old news.
did i miss something? 

regards croc


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## RichKid (7 January 2005)

*Re: AZR Aztec Resources- Little guy going Up?*



			
				crocdee said:
			
		

> hi rich
> went to the site had a quick look around but only found really old news.
> did i miss something?
> regards croc




Hi Croc,
If it's the fatprophetsreviews found via Google (I did mention it was not up to date- "early") then it is old, just good for some background from an independent perspective rather than from the co itself, hence my post. 

I couldn't find any new info, Ian Burston must be neck deep in negotiations. 

This link has an old presentation from around mid 2004, video from a presentation http://www.imediat.com.au/riu/ec/2004/AZR/ 

I had a look at it to get a better idea of where things are, now that most of what was discussed there has occurred. Again nothing new, just a guide to the overall project. Burston seems to have a healthy sense of humour, might be good to charm the bankers and investors! The funny bits are at the end during question time...


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## crocdee (7 January 2005)

*Re: AZR Aztec Resources- Little guy going Up?*

hi rich 
went to''imedict" link with no success seems i might be lacking in some software however no big deal seems that i"m not missing anything as nothing we don't already know. thanks anyway.
a little better volume today with a good close. have to admit that i'm not so confident atm of the oppies getting over the line. would be a shame for the company but has no immediate impact on me.
AZR is still a winner in my books.

regards croc


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## RichKid (8 January 2005)

*Re: AZR Aztec Resources- Little guy going Up?*

Yes, does appear to be bad for the oppies but we wont know till later, it's a lot of money for the co to sacrifice.
AZR is certainly a goer, the market depth and chart shows it.
Yes the link is a problem, try the audio only link if you prefer but it's not essential info imo.


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## tech/a (8 January 2005)

*Re: AZR Aztec Resources- Little guy going Up?*

*AZR is certainly a goer, the market depth and chart shows it*

Rich and Croc.

Certaintly seems we have opposing veiws on quite a few prospects.
Think the difference is that you see a fundumantal opportunity,but your not sure when it will be reflected in price,so your forced to take a position when you first become aware of it.

I on the other hand have no idea on any stocks fundamentals and dont become interested until a stock proves its bullish.

UTB is one example been on that since $3.60 a couple of years ago.

How do you choose which opportunity is the best to trade?
Wouldnt you have more fundamental opportunities than cash or do you just sit in all of them?


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## crocdee (8 January 2005)

*Re: AZR Aztec Resources- Little guy going Up?*

tech 
you and i trade differently, that is blatantly obvious. infact you probably trade differently to most who are on this site, but that doesn't mean we don't make money either.

i prefer to buy [at opportunity] a stock that has a good fundamental grounding. if the sp doesn't jump the next day it doesn't worry me because it more than likely will in due course. my homework goes into what the company has and what its plan for the future is, so unless you can fault the fundamentals of my research will you please get of my case. you have no idea when i buy or sell a stock but i do hold it longer than you do [i presume]

i have no intention of explaining to you the way i trade anymore but i am still willing to talk about stocks in general.

by the way if you had bought MUL when i posted it at a buy  @ 2.8c and sold @ 3.1c there was a profit of 10+% anyway lets not go into that again.

without question you do have a good input to this site so perhaps you might be able to alert us to some stocks you watch and when you reckon they are a buy. i'm sure many of us would be very interested in following your recomendations

regards croc


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## RichKid (8 January 2005)

*Re: AZR Aztec Resources- Little guy going Up?*

I can't see what's wrong with finding stocks with good fundamentals and then trading on price breakout or if the information is so good that it needs to be acted on immediately via entry. In my case, if support is nearby and it's near enough for my stop loss relative to entry then why not enter? For example break above 16c on volume can be a valid signal as that has been the resistance so far, I don't know if that ascending triangle pattern will look quite the same if it does break out later but chances are my entry price will be close to 17c if the breakout is strong (as required) with stop loss at 16c. (Breakouts at apex of triangles aren't always the strongest- pattern may change to a consolidation by next week or if prices drop it may become a longer triangle with a lower gradient/upward slope....will have to reassess then) 

I also agree with Croc's comments, no point trying to shoot down everyone who tries to put up their views on this board when it is contrary to yours, there must be some basic level of etiquette no matter how much better your analysis is than ours (but we don't know that since we're not in your league). 

I don't know what Joe (the Boss) thinks but he's going to have to get involved in this at some stage imho as things may get ugly (ie too much slanging). I note reputable (ie well known and well respected) people like Daryl Guppy (for example) help out in other boards and they present their views without knocking people down. People will stop using these forums if they think they are going to be bulldozed by overly assertive experts. 

I too welcome your comments but let's just get along.


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## tech/a (9 January 2005)

*Re: AZR Aztec Resources- Little guy going Up?*

*What the???

My post above wasnt meant to be aggressive or assertive.I re read it and I cant see anything than an admission that we look and trade stocks differently.I then present my veiw.

I present 2 basic questions which you ignore!

Youve all got this idea (50% here) that Im trying to prove Im a better trader than all of you---------what rubbish.
If that was the case why would I post my selections on another site?

http://www.reefcap.com/ubb/Forum48/HTML/000024-2.html

I dont post for other people to follow my trades.
I post with ideas to the methodology of trading it.Live examples of (WIN LOSE OR DRAW) of implementation of a trade.What you do when your winning and what to do if your losing are FAR more important than what your trading!!!!
I see heaps of stock selections and discussions on this site but NOTHING on how its being traded.

Why's that??

I endeavor to make my posts informative and with a purpose.

Im sick of this Rubbish/Inuendo that Im making a personal point!
Ill say it once again for you Croc,Rich,Crashy and anyone else who thinks I have a personal agenda---Constructively criticise the input but leave the personal digs in your Bleeding Volvo's :fu: 

Ive highlighted it in BOLD cause Im not happy.(Particularly when you put in hrs of your time in the endeavor to help others in their endeavors and then this Bullsheet!)*


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## Bingo (9 January 2005)

*Re: AZR Aztec Resources- Little guy going Up?*



			
				RichKid said:
			
		

> I don't know what Joe (the Boss) thinks but he's going to have to get involved in this at some stage imho as things may get ugly (ie too much slanging). I note reputable (ie well known and well respected) people like Daryl Guppy (for example) help out in other boards and they present their views without knocking people down. People will stop using these forums if they think they are going to be bulldozed by overly assertive experts.
> 
> I too welcome your comments but let's just get along.





Richkid,

Let me first say that I find that the alternative views put up by participants are helpful. I ask you to reread the comments by tech/a as I found then OK and he was just offering an alternative viewpoint. You both come from opposite points of view and will no doubt disagree from time to time.

Have a nice day.


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## Joe Blow (9 January 2005)

*Re: AZR Aztec Resources- Little guy going Up?*

I've been keeping an eye on this thread and thought it might be a good time to step in and make a few comments.

It's okay to disagree and even argue heatedly. Forums like this are all about the exchange of ideas and information. They're also about people of different life experiences, methodologies and areas of expertise coming together. In my opinion that is extremely valuable. 

The one thing that I won't tolerate on these forums is personal abuse and name calling. That is easy enough to find on other forums. But in my opinion nobody here has crossed the line. As an example, calling someone an "idiot" is probably going to get a warning from me. While calling someone "misinformed" will not. Everyone is entitled to their opinion, misinformed or not. 

It's okay to disagree lets just all show each other some common courtesy and basic respect.

Other than that, please carry on... interesting thread.


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## crocdee (9 January 2005)

*Re: AZR Aztec Resources- Little guy going Up?*

tech
went into reefcap. an interesting site thanks for the link
croc


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## RichKid (9 January 2005)

*Re: AZR Aztec Resources- Little guy going Up?*



			
				tech/a said:
			
		

> *What the???
> 
> My post above wasnt meant to be aggressive or assertive. *




Okay Tech, maybe I'm too sensitive and should toughen up to your style. I'm glad you weren't Trying to be overly aggressive (which is my main point). 
Thanks for the link, that thread on Reefcap is great, maybe I'll have more of a look there and in similar forums from now on, glad you're still going with CUE I remeber we first discussed it sometime ago when you were thinking of setting up a strategy for penny stocks (before your untimely departure for a short time). I still think strong language is strong language, even if you spell the words differently. 

Let's just keep these forums going...


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## tech/a (9 January 2005)

*Re: AZR Aztec Resources- Little guy going Up?*

Hey no problems Even You Crashy.

Personally I appreciate anyone who calls a spade a spade provided-----

They have content to the issues they raise.
Wish more people would do it there would be less misunderstanding/procrastination both qualities that should not be part of your trading arsenal.

tech.


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## RichKid (9 January 2005)

*Re: AZR Aztec Resources- Little guy going Up?*



			
				tech/a said:
			
		

> *AZR is certainly a goer, the market depth and chart shows it*
> ....
> Think the difference is that you see a fundumantal opportunity,but your not sure when it will be reflected in price,so your forced to take a position when you first become aware of it.
> ....
> ...




Just from my perspective good fundys doesn't mean I buy immediately, I wait for the technical trigger. I missed an opportunity to buy in at 10c because I wasn't sure if the head and shoulders reversal pattern had been invalidated although it was eventually by time confirmation and consolidation at 10c support followed by a breakout.  I had no real system so didn't enter. Instead I traded AZR via the AZROA oppies for more leverage through more movement and clearer support/resistance lines. Now I'm looking at entering AZR fpo's as the options (no time value) are dying (unless good news takes AZR over 20c, which could seriously happen, pretty spectacular if it does- only a small chance of it now).

So far no real trigger for me to enter AZR. I note your resistance line is higher than mine, which means your entry would be safer. I didn't consider that, instead I went for a slightly riskier trade trading the breakout from 16c resistance on volume (see my post on this above)- from observing this stock I would see an annoucement near the surge in price and that would help determine exit strategy. I note this wait and see approach to exit is similar to yours on Reefcap for the small speccies and although I would have a predetermined profit usually this one is worth the extra risk IMO as it may yield more, anticipated support at 16c is also good imo for reducing downside. Still too early to call, the price action will unfold day by day, patterns change.


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## crocdee (10 January 2005)

*Re: AZR Aztec Resources- Little guy going Up?*

hi rich
looks like things are starting to make a move 1.7mil trades so far.

buying depth has also strengthened 7.985mil on the buy side as against 4.5mil on the sell side.

regards croc


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## RichKid (11 January 2005)

*Re: AZR Aztec Resources- Little guy going Up?*

An article on some action in this sector (iron ore), let's see if it rubs off on AZR with market interest focused on these little co's. As for volume today on AZR, I'd like to see at least double (or triple) that volume, but from what you've described Croc it really is building up. 
http://www.smh.com.au/news/Business/Foreign-predator-eyeing-Portman/2005/01/10/1105206051740.html

I was just doing some maths on the oppies: 
If I buy in at the smallest figure (ie $500, plenty of AZROA sellers at $0.001, it'll buy you 500k oppies ) and AZR runs to $0.20c+ (as it appears to be preparing to do) then the oppies will be in the money (exercise at 20c) so an investment of $500 will become (500k x $0.20c) $100,000 at least! (Check my maths to be sure). Risk to reward 1:200 There is a very high probability of losing $500.

So if there is any sign of the AZR sp going north AZROA will be a VERY VERY high risk speccy to get into. Remember, AZR only has to go up by about a few cents above the recent resistance for the oppies to be in the money. So you basically look to lose $500 with HUGE upside, one for the crazy gamblers, I'll be watching this closely, hope I'm around when the action starts. Somepeople may just consider $500 to be cannon fodder (like buying a lottery tix). It all depends on AZR, worth watching!! Two weeks to go...

I've done the maths above mainly to see the theoretical outcome but may actually trade it if things look good, I know it sounds crazy but I'll be watching in case it's worth entering the oppies. The AZR trade (see posts above) of course is much safer but the returns are lower too.

This is not a recommendation to enter a trade so please don't!


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## crocdee (11 January 2005)

*Re: AZR Aztec Resources- Little guy going Up?*

hi rich

the oppies expire 31-1-05 so nearly 3 weeks to go.
be very interesting to see how it all pans out over that period but with no takers on the oppies @ 0.1c too risky for me to even contemplate.

regardless of whether the sp increases to get the oppies over the line or not AZR wiil definetly be a very profitable company in due course.

burstan is well regarded in the industry so he probably has more than 1 ace up his sleeve.

volume increased today with more buyers than sellers so it appears the interest is generating. where to from here   well tomorrow is another day but things are looking more promising than last week. as always we will have to wait and see.

regards croc


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## crocdee (11 January 2005)

*Re: AZR Aztec Resources- Little guy going Up?*

hi rich

AZR looks like is finally on its way

regards croc


----------



## RichKid (11 January 2005)

*Re: AZR Aztec Resources- Little guy going Up?*



			
				crocdee said:
			
		

> hi rich
> the oppies expire 31-1-05 so nearly 3 weeks to go.
> be very interesting to see how it all pans out over that period but with no takers on the oppies @ 0.1c too risky for me to even contemplate.
> regardless of whether the sp increases to get the oppies over the line or not AZR wiil definetly be a very profitable company in due course.
> ...




Hi Croc,
With the option expiry- I thought they stop trading 21Jan05- I haven't traded oppies so close to expiry before hence my estimate of time. There are now buyers at $0.001c. Expiry is 31Jan so I guess you have to convert by that time but if they aren't tradeable after 21Jan then I assume we have to transact on the exchange by then. Please correct me if I'm wrong, still learning this stuff...

Today (Tuesday) has seen volume EXPLODE to over 8 million, recent volume has been under a million, it'll probably close the day at over 10m as it's only 12.30pm atm. Vol explosions usually foretell an annoucement so let's hope it's a great one! Must be due this week. The only other explanation is that the 
Portman play has attracted investors to this sector as AZR may well end up a takeover target considering their high grade ore and low costs. The expected resource upgrade will also see them approach Portman in size of ore shipped per annum.

Tech; looks like you were right as well, this one appears to be a goer, let's see how the price settles, an action packed week ahead...


----------



## crocdee (11 January 2005)

*Re: AZR Aztec Resources- Little guy going Up?*

hi rich 
i am in the same boat as you about options have never held them this close to closing date so can't answer your question.
maybe tech can shed some light on it for us both.

volume will be well over 10mil today nearly there now infact just hit 17.5c which is the resistance point to higher levels much higher i hope.

are you a holder yet?

regards croc


----------



## RichKid (11 January 2005)

*Re: AZR Aztec Resources- Little guy going Up?*

Hi Croc,
Yes, volumes are going higher and higher, it should quieten in a bit for the arvo as it reaches 17.5c. I'm not a holder yet but should be sometime today. Also wathcing oppies very closely, they've come to life again!! One day isn't going to turn it for this co so, we'll see how it pans out over the next few days. Technicals are shaping up well. It's the annoucements that are the key...Are you thinking of entering AZR/AZROA?


----------



## crocdee (11 January 2005)

*Re: AZR Aztec Resources- Little guy going Up?*

hi rich
i entered AZR 27 -9-04 @ 10.5 and have been waiting patiently for it all to come together.
AZROA is too risky for me atm and more than likely stay that way.

regards croc


----------



## RichKid (11 January 2005)

*Re: AZR Aztec Resources- Little guy going Up?*

Hi Croc,
Glad to hear you got in early, that's a nice profit you're sitting on!! If you're already in AZR no point getting overexposed.
I've just got in at 17c with a tight stop at 16c. Still watching AZROA. Currently AZR around 17c may dip to 16c or shoot through to new highs, volume is very positive, now for that news!


----------



## DTM (11 January 2005)

*Re: AZR Aztec Resources- Little guy going Up?*

Hi guys

Decided to hop on the band wagon for the ride at .175.  

Happy trading


----------



## RichKid (11 January 2005)

*Re: AZR Aztec Resources- Little guy going Up?*

Welcome aboard the ride, hope you weren't relying on our views alone, make sure you have an individual plan. 
AZR volume is at an all time high (beat previous high of 15m), currently on its way to 19m, sure to be known to a lot more traders by the time the day is out, it has now broken all previous highs, including previous resistance at 17.5c and looks like it'll close the day on the up at 18c or above...let's see how it pans out.


----------



## tech/a (11 January 2005)

*Re: AZR Aztec Resources- Little guy going Up?*

Yup.

17.5


----------



## RichKid (11 January 2005)

*Re: AZR Aztec Resources- Little guy going Up?*



			
				tech/a said:
			
		

> Yup.
> 
> 17.5




Tech, 
Does that mean you bought the stock at 17.5c or that you reckon it's finally on it's way as you predicted once beyond 17.5c?

As for volume- wow!! This sort of thing usually sees a query from the ASX unless an annoucement is made- am I wrong???

Still looking at AZROA, remember 20c is the exercise price and AZR is within spitting distance of it!! It still needs to go 20c+ to be attractive. BUT EASY TO GET WIPED OUT ON AZROA FOR THE UNWARY (people like me). 



> As at 11Jan05 for AZR:
> 
> Bid     Offer    Last
> 0.175  0.180   0.175
> ...


----------



## tech/a (11 January 2005)

*Re: AZR Aztec Resources- Little guy going Up?*

Bought it.
Triangle says 19c
Close beyond 17.5 would have been nice.
Stop 15.5 which will indicate a return to consolidation (For me anyway).


----------



## RichKid (11 January 2005)

*Re: AZR Aztec Resources- Little guy going Up?*



			
				tech/a said:
			
		

> Bought it.
> Triangle says 19c
> Close beyond 17.5 would have been nice.
> Stop 15.5 which will indicate a return to consolidation (For me anyway).




I had 19c as my initial target too for the same reason, I didn't think it'd go past 18c today but all that volume at the tail end of today suggests it'll continue through there tomorrow to new highs. Also note the large descending triangle (or pennant?) on the long term charts (support at 10c), upper border broken today before last third of triangle suggesting a strong breakout, especially with the volume. Sometimes tech charts look perfect but it doesn't follow the theory so nothing is certain yet. I'm looking to lift my stop to 17.5c as soon as practicable, if this is a solid run then that'll become solid support.


----------



## doctorj (11 January 2005)

*Re: AZR Aztec Resources- Little guy going Up?*

If the volume continues tomorrow with the price continuing to head in the right direction, AZROA all of a sudden becomes interesting.


----------



## RichKid (11 January 2005)

*Re: AZR Aztec Resources- Little guy going Up?*



			
				doctorj said:
			
		

> If the volume continues tomorrow with the price continuing to head in the right direction, AZROA all of a sudden becomes interesting.




Yep, volume tomorrow above 17.5c will seal it. I reckon it's pretty fascinating already, just a matter of confirmation over the next few days. The buy depth is there alright and a lot of people would have seen this come up on their screens due to the volume spike. Also with the iron ore sector in play now it looks good. My only concern is that the annoucements expected need to be made this week or next week latest for this to blossom into one hell of a run. I hope we just haven't had a bunch of iron ore sector speculators jumping in, but HUGE volumes suggests otherwise.

Have you bought into AZR docj?


----------



## RichKid (11 January 2005)

*Re: AZR Aztec Resources- Little guy going Up?*

Excerpt from story on iron ore sector and Portman consolidation. Includes reference to iron ore price hike and Aztec Resources AZR. Might explain some of today's interest in AZR and confirms long term prospects of AZR.


> http://sg.biz.yahoo.com/050111/15/3ps06.html
> 
> ....Analysts expect benchmark iron ore prices to rise more than 30% next Japanese fiscal year starting April 1 as Asian steel mills try to lock in supplies of the key steel making ingredient.
> 
> ...


----------



## crocdee (11 January 2005)

*Re: AZR Aztec Resources- Little guy going Up?*

hi all
well well wel AZR did perform today however i also consider the close a little disappointing.
interesting to read the last few posts. 
presumably by now we all know the fundamentals of this company, now i'm waiting for an announcement for confirmation.
todays action is nothing new in the market, it is the rumour mill at work in the lead up to an announcement or possibly more [which really should be the case here] regardless there is one in the wind within the next day or two.

the question now is where do we  make an exit.
i will be waiting to see what they disclose at the announcement then i will re-assess my position.
like all other stocks there will be tradible positions for the daytraders and others wish to try their luck.

looking forward to tomorrow
regards croc


----------



## doctorj (12 January 2005)

*Re: AZR Aztec Resources- Little guy going Up?*

I'm in the process of moving my brokerage to Comsec and unfortunately placed a buy order on this stock when my account was activated at about close today.

I've placed the order but I'm considering withdrawing it to be re-submitted @ market 10-30mins into trading tomorrow.  At the moment I'm torn between rumour of an announcement and a nagging suspicion the stock will retrace tomorrow.

Speaking of which, where do I set up stop-losses with Comsec?

Edit: What I also meant to say, was to Croc - we exit the same time we always exit... when it hits the stop or begins consolidation at a new price.


----------



## tech/a (12 January 2005)

*Re: AZR Aztec Resources- Little guy going Up?*

Re stop/exit

If it goes then Ill look at it but currently Im at 15.5 stop if its taken out Im out thats the first issue.


----------



## doctorj (12 January 2005)

*Re: AZR Aztec Resources- Little guy going Up?*

I ended up getting in at 0.170 and adjusted my stop from 0.160 to 0.155 accordingly. A fairly soft looking open, possibly profit taking from yesterdays highs.  MRX looks like it's generating some interest today.


----------



## RichKid (12 January 2005)

*Re: AZR Aztec Resources- Little guy going Up?*



			
				doctorj said:
			
		

> I ended up getting in at 0.170 and adjusted my stop from 0.160 to 0.155 accordingly. A fairly soft looking open, possibly profit taking from yesterdays highs.  MRX looks like it's generating some interest today.




Welcome aboard AZR doc, yes, it has been a soft open, right on the resistance at 17.5 Good depth though and already upto 2m, let's see how it is once the usual morning turmoil is over and the smart money starts flowing after lunch. 

As for Matrix Metals (MRX), see this thread (below), it's on saucer patterns and has an explanation of my strategy, if it does well I might win the tipping comp too! Yeay!!! https://www.aussiestockforums.com/forums/showthread.php?t=761


----------



## tech/a (12 January 2005)

*Re: AZR Aztec Resources- Little guy going Up?*

An inside day is very common with rises so sharp over short timeframes.
Its tommorows and the next day that will be the key.

Ill be suprised if the Stop is threatened.
Pretty normal so back to work!


----------



## crocdee (12 January 2005)

*Re: AZR Aztec Resources- Little guy going Up?*

hi all 
yesterday md ian burstan added 366918 shares to his holding.
how positive is that?
question now is how far away are we from an announcement?
definetly a hold situation for me.

good luck to all who hold this looks like it could be big.

regards croc


----------



## RichKid (12 January 2005)

*Re: AZR Aztec Resources- Little guy going Up?*

Here's the details of today's news as mentioned by Croc, 


> Change of director’s relevant interests in securities
> Name of Director: Ian Fred Burston
> 
> Date of last notice: 17 June 2003
> ...




This suggests he bought at 14.5c, which is good value, looks like he's got great timing!! Let's see what the annoucement is. Always good to see the top dog at AZR buying in.

Price is steady around $17.5c atm.

(Just an afterthought, if Burston bought in at an average of 14.5c yesterday (Tue11Jan)  that means the price should have gone down to 14.5c that day but my charts show it didn't go lower than 15c, which means he probably bought the day before (Mon 10 Jan) when it was at 14.5c)


----------



## DTM (12 January 2005)

*Re: AZR Aztec Resources- Little guy going Up?*

Pardon my ignorance, but what are the AZROA 31 Jan options?


----------



## tech/a (12 January 2005)

*Re: AZR Aztec Resources- Little guy going Up?*

Company Traded Options AZROA.
You can trade them as you do a share or you can buy and hold them and if in the money exercise them for shares at the expiry date.
Just another way for the company to make a $$.

Dont see a 50K increase in holdings to be much to go balistic over a good house cost $400K.If the Director thought it was going to fly short term then more would be bought.
Chances are its more a long term proposition.


----------



## RichKid (12 January 2005)

*Re: AZR Aztec Resources- Little guy going Up?*



			
				tech/a said:
			
		

> Dont see a 50K increase in holdings to be much to go balistic over a good house cost $400K.If the Director thought it was going to fly short term then more would be bought.
> Chances are its more a long term proposition.




The MD has increased his holding by over a third but as you say Tech it's not a huge amount (especially for him). He still holds 1.36m shares which is a fair amount. This is just my opinion but I think he may be just timing his purchases to give himself and the market the best chance. For the MD it was a great price, for the AZR watchers it's an indication of confidence and good things to come, might also be a try at getting the options (exercise price is 20c) over the line to net the co a cool $25m (or was it more?).

If the co was valued at about 20-23c by most analysts upto a year ago then it should at least be at that price after the resource upgrades and diminishing risk profile of the last six months. So any current reports should see it at atleast 20c, I can't see why it's still waiting on annoucements to hit 20c. But that's the fundamentals side of it, maybe the current rally will see the technicals bring the price to fair value. (see first few posts in this thread for reference to AZR valuations and report locations- on AZR website).

This has been an interesting week, sure to get more so as the days go by....


----------



## tech/a (12 January 2005)

*Re: AZR Aztec Resources- Little guy going Up?*

Rich you could be right CUE Directors did exactly that.

I cant post charts the sizing is to small.


----------



## crocdee (12 January 2005)

*Re: AZR Aztec Resources- Little guy going Up?*

hi rich 
good post can't say anymore than that. lets wait and see what will happen from here. generally after a good volume and price hike day there will be a pullback. the good thing here is the close of today was the same as yesterday. its only time for it to all come together and it will.

for me i will wait for the announcement and see what they say, well knowing what the full storey is. i will then reassess my position.

regards croc


----------



## tech/a (13 January 2005)

*Re: AZR Aztec Resources- Little guy going Up?*

Here is what I tried to post yesterday.

Thanks Boss.


----------



## crocdee (13 January 2005)

*Re: AZR Aztec Resources- Little guy going Up?*

hi all 

well we got off to a good start today 18.5c as i speak. buy depth much stronger atm. be interesting to see what the day has in store for us.

croc


----------



## RichKid (13 January 2005)

*Re: AZR Aztec Resources- Little guy going Up?*

Yep, volume stronger than yesterday too and already hit a new high of 18.5c. People may finally have 'discovered' the true value of AZR after the iron ore action and may mark it up to fair value. Let's see. I'd like to move my stop up as soon as practicable, let's see what kind of tech pattern is unfolding...


----------



## doctorj (13 January 2005)

*Re: AZR Aztec Resources- Little guy going Up?*

If we can break 0.190 today on good volume, my TA suggests we're in clear skies.  Looking at the market depth we might just be able to do that.


----------



## crocdee (13 January 2005)

*Re: AZR Aztec Resources- Little guy going Up?*

actually now that i have had time to settle down, looking at the chart 18.5c poses a double top, which if not broken usually signifies a down turn.
buy depth very strong so hopefully we can make a new high today.

what are your thoughts tech

regards croc


----------



## RichKid (13 January 2005)

*Re: AZR Aztec Resources- Little guy going Up?*

Yes, interesting point Croc, but it need not be a double top, could end up a being a flag or ascending triangle with 18.5c being the resistance, or even a pennant, just depends on how it pans out. Have to agree with Doc about the potential for 19c to be taken out, depth in favour of bulls atm. If AZR releases even a reasonably favourable annoucement this week confirming the bullish prospects this one'll just keep going.
Let's see what Tech's view is, the more perspectives the better but we can't do much while this is playing out as it is...


----------



## doctorj (13 January 2005)

*Re: AZR Aztec Resources- Little guy going Up?*

Has anyone raised there stops yet?


----------



## RichKid (13 January 2005)

*Re: AZR Aztec Resources- Little guy going Up?*

My stop's at 16c and I haven't moved it but I think Tech said his had gone from 15.5 to 16. 16.5 seems to be the current support. I'm still waiting to see the pattern that unfolds, I'm looking to move mine to 17.5c...


----------



## tech/a (13 January 2005)

*Re: AZR Aztec Resources- Little guy going Up?*

Here is a 5 min tick chart nothing much happening.
Break of 18.5 is the key to this chart.
I dont raise stops when its doing its thing.
If there is a sign of weakness than stops are tightened.(I then have a reason)
*Youll never get a big profit taking a small profit*

You lot really get excited!


----------



## doctorj (13 January 2005)

*Re: AZR Aztec Resources- Little guy going Up?*

I've lifted mine from 15.5 to 16.0.  As Richkid suggests, 16.5 seems to be providing good resistance, in my opinion if it breaks 16.5 there isn't much reason to hang around the extra half before stopping out.

As for excitement, I'm in Perth and my better half has been heading off to work lately the last few weeks, giving me precious little to do till I head on in to the office at a very leisurely 9.30


----------



## RichKid (13 January 2005)

*Re: AZR Aztec Resources- Little guy going Up?*



			
				tech/a said:
			
		

> Here is a 5 min tick chart nothing much happening.
> Break of 18.5 is the key to this chart.
> I dont raise stops when its doing its thing.
> If there is a sign of weakness than stops are tightened.(I then have a reason)
> ...




Tech,
In terms of your tactics, you said in the commenatary to the last chart you posted (post#69) you might exit at 16c if it closed there- but I assume that was when the patten was still a bit shaky and we thought it might fall back. So once it's going in the direction anticipated you stick to stops till the price has moved well away in strength? (that is what I do, more or less) Just checking if I understood it. My stop has stayed where it was set, let's see if the sp cooperates!! I see 19c as crucial as that's the measurement I got (see previous posts).

I'm enthusiastic about this one because I've been following it and things are finally coming to fruition or will soon. It's good to see the effort being rewarded. This is the enjoyable part of trading- touchwood, this one could still come back a bit.


----------



## DTM (13 January 2005)

*Re: AZR Aztec Resources- Little guy going Up?*

Hopped off AZR @ .18 and hopped into ADY @ .081.  

Hopefully see you guys again.


----------



## tech/a (13 January 2005)

*Re: AZR Aztec Resources- Little guy going Up?*

DTM

Ooops


----------



## doctorj (13 January 2005)

*Re: AZR Aztec Resources- Little guy going Up?*

Any thoughts on today's trading and the future for AZR?

Lots of volume but unable to better 18.5. End of day profit taking saw the stock fall back to the open price.


----------



## RichKid (13 January 2005)

*Re: AZR Aztec Resources- Little guy going Up?*

Yes, looking slower, but still at high levels, let's see if it can break that resistance. Volume is still high but a close above 18 would have been convincing. Time will tell...


----------



## tech/a (13 January 2005)

*Re: AZR Aztec Resources- Little guy going Up?*

Well the price action is pretty lackluster.
Todays volume better than yesterdays and price couldnt go in with it.
Close of 17.5 indicates late sellers rather than buyers.
Right now there is a balance between buyers and sellers.
In candlestick patterns we have a Tweezer Top (Double top).As most know this indicates failure to break resistance and some see it as an entry for a short in this case.(Top Pattern)

Stop still at 16c for me but dont think we are going to get rich from this one on this thrust.Tommorow will show pretty clearly whats in store.


----------



## crocdee (13 January 2005)

*Re: AZR Aztec Resources- Little guy going Up?*

howdy all
for me a disappointing close leaving us in the double top syndrome however buyers still out number sellers. 116 buyers 10996528 shares as against 112 sellers 8748824 shares but that could all change oneway or the other tomorrow.

something to ponder on?????

getting the oppies whilst raising $25mil will bring another 121mil shares on to the market with an end result a dilution of the sp.
if the oppies finish out of the money the funds needed for further development will have to come  bank loans or placement or perhaps both. 

it all now depends on what and if an announcement is made to test the fate of the oppies. wouldn't you like to be a fly on the wall.

regards croc


----------



## RichKid (14 January 2005)

*Re: AZR Aztec Resources- Little guy going Up?*

Hi GP, good point about the options but it depends on where the price ends up at the end of the month, for options to be worth converting it'll have to be 20c+, if it makes it to 20c it could go to 23++ rather than just stopping dead at just over 20c so dilution may not have an effect till later.  All depends on the share price and annoucements...
Good news though is that by looking at previous swings up it generally ends up breaking that resistance before long, hence my remarks about flags, pennants, triangles, can't say till the price action reveals the pattern. Very short term view doesn't look as bullish as it did before, espically as those spikes keep hitting resistance, a bit toppish. Might end the day as same as yesterday. Volume is still solid, as at 11.30am about 3m. Depth has picked up now and this co is certainly more actively traded now.

(speaking of technical sp changes due to option exercise I've started a thread on Bolnisi Gold (BSG) which fell due to that reason as prices were adjusted, it's a tech and fundamentals play imo-->  https://www.aussiestockforums.com/forums/showthread.php?p=5884#post5884


----------



## crocdee (14 January 2005)

*Re: AZR Aztec Resources- Little guy going Up?*

hi all 
well i think a pretty lackluster finish to the week, however a better close @ 18c than 17.5c which could have easily been.

we will now have to look forward to next week to see what unfolds.

regards croc


----------



## crocdee (17 January 2005)

*Re: AZR Aztec Resources- Little guy going Up?*

hi all

well will today be the start of a big week
the open looks ok at this stage

regards croc


----------



## crocdee (17 January 2005)

*Re: AZR Aztec Resources- Little guy going Up?*

18.5c resistance broken, getting interesting now
buy depth looks strong

regards croc


----------



## doctorj (17 January 2005)

*Re: AZR Aztec Resources- Little guy going Up?*

According to one well informed chap on sharescene, InvestmentWise tipped AZR this week which has resulted in the large number of small parcel trades.  Also, apparently there are some rumblings of AZR as a TO target soon in some media outlets.  I can't say I've seen that, but I don't think its particularly believable for the time being.

Anyone decided to take a punt on AZROA yet?


----------



## RichKid (17 January 2005)

*Re: AZR Aztec Resources- Little guy going Up?*

Nice to see it hitting the min move expected at 19c, let's see if it can stay there. Yes, the lagging tipsheets would be in by now. Some brokers have tipped AZR long ago so it just adds to the momentum. This might make people start doing the math on valuations and it may go to the old estimates in the early twenties (20-23c at least). 

Takeover rumblings are probably because of the Portman deal igniting the iron ore sector but that was not about high grade iron ore (as AZR is) so unless someone knows of a co looking to muscle in on Japanese and Chinese interests which have been associated with AZR for awhile it is just speculation. Doesn't hear to have publicity though.

AZR volume currently nearing 13m- looking really good!! Would be good to have more buying depth though, lots of orders. Not sure if enough time left for AZROA, this'll be a very close one for the oppies, especially as no annoucements have been made.


----------



## doctorj (18 January 2005)

*Re: AZR Aztec Resources- Little guy going Up?*

What a dodgy day for our dear mate, AZR.  The market got the announcement they were waiting for and were obviously disappointed. Ended up droping considerably in the dying minutes of trading.


----------



## crocdee (19 January 2005)

*Re: AZR Aztec Resources- Little guy going Up?*

dj
todays announcement is only the beginning of the unfolding storey behind koolon island.
patience is the virtue here it will take its time but it will happen.
many more announcements to come yet.

regards croc


----------



## RichKid (19 January 2005)

*Re: AZR Aztec Resources- Little guy going Up?*

Agree with Croc, Doc.
Issue is these negotiations take time, it's just our luck that it hasn't been done in time for the oppies or the co would have had a lot of money in the bank. Now it looks like they are just trying to give out as much positive info as possible without misleading the market. With the worldwide iron ore price negotiations not far away lots of deals will be being done so they are working furiously, it just hasn't happened in time for the sp to skyrocket but it is a healthy trend. 

Thanks to Croc's observation about the dilutory effects of the options we can atleast take a positive into next month- ie sp wont be affected negatively as the oppies appear to be dying a slow death. BUT anything can happen between now and the 31stJan (see below). The current trend suggests the oppies 'may' (slim chance) end up in the money. Whether many will be exercised in time (thus affecting AZR sp) is another question.

I am still trying to find out if the last trading day is 21 Jan (Friday) and if the last day to convert to shares is 31st Jan. I expect it is but no one seems to know as I posted a thread on it in the Beginners Lounge: https://www.aussiestockforums.com/forums/showthread.php?t=839


----------



## crocdee (20 January 2005)

*Re: AZR Aztec Resources- Little guy going Up?*

tech
do you still hold.
atm it doesn't look good for the oppies and looks like we are going to stay around the 18-19c range until they expire.

i'm still holding and probably will until the get most things sorted.

burstans plan will be well set by now, would be great if we all new what it was.

any thoughts
regards croc


----------



## tech/a (20 January 2005)

*Re: AZR Aztec Resources- Little guy going Up?*

Yes.

Right now Im happy to keep for a while.
However no movement or a close at 16.5 within 3 or 4 days will see me looking for another opportunity and placing this on watch for a breakout if and when that occures.


----------



## crocdee (21 January 2005)

*Re: AZR Aztec Resources- Little guy going Up?*

hi all 
has anyone given thought to the scenario that the chinese might [ at the eleventh hour] underwrite the oppies thus making a cheap entry and then perhaps even offering further funding to get the show on the road.
there doesn't appear to be any reason why AZR should be dismissed as a player in the iron ore market. all reports tell us they have the ore in the ground with a futher potential to increase production from futher exploration.

it really now becomes a question as to where we as shareholders say bank and take profit before the sp falls. thats the crystal ball stuff for us.

atm the peak could be 22-25c [maybe more who knows] but where do we get out and where do we re-enter if you  believe there is more potential for money to be made.

just a few thoughts that are going through my mind.
anyway something else to think about.
comments anyone.  

regards croc


----------



## RichKid (24 January 2005)

*Re: AZR Aztec Resources- Little guy going Up?*

Hi Croc,
Sorry for the delayed reply. Not sure about the underwriting but it is a reasonable possibility. Really is a shame they couldn't tie up the options, but in hindsight for me personally it'll at least prevent dilution- we'll see next week (31JAn).

Anyway, last quarter activities report released today (monday), looks great, no mention of anything unusual, full steam ahead, upgrades will be announced in a few weeks from what I can see in the release. Looks like 20c is about to fall as price surges! AZR is going to be a star performer this year. My only concern is with the native title negotiations, hope it comes through as planned (but that's for later on).


----------



## crocdee (24 January 2005)

*Re: AZR Aztec Resources- Little guy going Up?*

hi rich
have finally completed reading the report.
it looks like a very busy 6 months ahead to complete all the loose ends in the lead up to production.
company now too far advanced for the project to fall over.
all about time before the sp takes off however i think it will take longer than we all would like so are going to have to be patient to reap the reward on offer.

regards croc


----------



## RichKid (24 January 2005)

*Re: AZR Aztec Resources- Little guy going Up?*

Hi Croc,
Yes, certainly is a busy 6months to a year ahead. 2005 will see AZR firmly on the map. Once the iron ore price negotiations are over and the new prices are known there'll be even more interest from latecomers. 

Next event for us holders is the resource upgrade, probably will be as expected that'll definitely take this one over 20c. Sp will range till then imo, unless they announce the financing deal before then, appears it's just the details they need to sort out, a lot of the arithmetic will depend on the resource estimates so that's the key.


----------



## crocdee (25 January 2005)

*Re: AZR Aztec Resources- Little guy going Up?*

hi all 

buyer depth has increased significantly today

croc


----------



## RichKid (25 January 2005)

*Re: AZR Aztec Resources- Little guy going Up?*

Yes, looking nice. I'll be surprised if it closes above 20c this week, only Thursday and Friday left for trading as Wed is a holiday. So next Monday is the last day for the oppies to get in, I'm hoping they wont so it doesn't dilute the sp as you mentioned Croc.
I've also managed to figure out the answer to my question about the oppies AZROA. Basically you can't trade em after the day it says they stop trading (21Jan) and from then on until expiry you can only convert them to ordinary shares (if you want to). This is my understanding, not sure if it is at all correct.


----------



## crocdee (25 January 2005)

*Re: AZR Aztec Resources- Little guy going Up?*

hi rich 
yes you are correct about azroa they have now been suspended from trading and need to be converted by 31-1-05.

buy depth even stronger since i last posted.
looks to me like many of the oppies will be converted

croc


----------



## RichKid (25 January 2005)

*Re: AZR Aztec Resources- Little guy going Up?*

Eat my shorts! Can't believe it, at 21c already. Stop moved up to 17.5c, it'll stay there unless something unexpected happens. Let's see if it closes at 21c or moves below. Strong depth continues. Wonder what the effect of the oppies will be, hate to see a retracement. Nice to see some extra cash for the co if they are itm. Still a few days to go.


----------



## tech/a (25 January 2005)

*Re: AZR Aztec Resources- Little guy going Up?*

Nice to see.


----------



## doctorj (25 January 2005)

*Re: AZR Aztec Resources- Little guy going Up?*

Tech and others, what is your take on how the options affecting the share price.  I agree with you that the chart looks like its off again, but its likely to revalue lower come Jan 31 with the dilution, right?

I'm not that experienced in these situations, any help is appeciated.


----------



## crocdee (25 January 2005)

*Re: AZR Aztec Resources- Little guy going Up?*

hi all
what a great finish today

1 a new nigh created
2 openned lower and closed on that new high
3 volume up
4 buyer depth exceptionally strong
   177 buyers 13950144 shares
   107 sellers   7455201 shares
what more can you ask for of a stock?

conclusion STAY IN THE TRADE for the time being.

MY THOUGHTS
the oppies are now in the money- but only by 1c. 
if they are taken up it will add another 121mil shares to the existing 362,644,601 on issue, which will mean a dilution to the sp and inevitably a pullback to around 18.5c which now seems to be the new support level.
with the activity of today there looks like another announcement in the waiting ie before jan 31 which will more than likely kick the sp a bit more from todays close.
after the anouncement i believe the sp will pullback.

anytime now is an exit for me and i will wait for a re- entry at lower levels to enjoy the ride again.

these are my thoughts
reallly interested in any other comments

regards croc


----------



## tech/a (26 January 2005)

*Re: AZR Aztec Resources- Little guy going Up?*

Croc.

You seem to be taking  an each way bet.Stay in for the time being and your out anytime for a re entry.


Me Ill watch price action and stay with it.
Option expiry will have little influence on price.


----------



## RichKid (26 January 2005)

*Re: AZR Aztec Resources- Little guy going Up?*

Options expiry, seem to be the major issue at the moment re dilution. I've been watching BSG and they adjusted their sp to reflect the exercise of options (look at pricing on Bigcharts.com (old pricing) and compare to current pricing (eg CommSec- adjusted price) OR see the Bolnisi thread. Basically high adjusted from 60c+ to 56c but obviously the dilutory effect varies according to the number exercised, the sp how far they're in the money etc but that's just my guess. So options about 30% more shares will be issued if all AZROA are converted (which means AZROA holders have to have the dough to pay for the AZR shares). The higher AZR goes the less the effect for me by options on sp as my profits will be preserved.

As for getting out of this trade- not for me, I want my profits to run- 18c for shares like this is a psychological price that is common imo, sounds silly but with the co on the verge of something big it should range to low to mid 20s. For you Croc, you've made a heap on this one so I can understand you wanting to cash in without risking more. Perhaps a reentry with a smaller position size if I were you, but this is not advice as I have a habit of being wrong (ie didn't buy in at 10c! went for short term profits in AZROA instead). Another strategy is to take your capital out and leave the profits to run as you have doubled your money. All depends on your individual plan. Please don't be misled by me views if you have another plan- I know it's sometimes hard to exit. 

Recent rise in volume and strong close bodes well for AZR, let's see what the annoucement is, if there is one. I'm waiting on the final rounds of the iron ore negotiations to see how much they hike prices by (30%+). I expect Australia will ask for a higher hike than the others once it's our turn.


----------



## crocdee (26 January 2005)

*Re: AZR Aztec Resources- Little guy going Up?*

tech 

staying in atm but now looking for the right time to exit before a pullback which i think will occur shortly.

sorry about the confusion.

croc


----------



## RichKid (26 January 2005)

*Re: AZR Aztec Resources- Little guy going Up?*

I suppose this is where Gann and Fibonnacci may help with those percentage lines giving an idea of where price may change ahead of the current high (hence a target to exit at). (A 'key level' as called by some). I'm just watching the sp atm, can't do much when there's no reason to.


----------



## crocdee (26 January 2005)

*Re: AZR Aztec Resources- Little guy going Up?*

hi rich and all
yep azr has been good to me.
i researched early made my entry and have been waiting patiently for it all to unfold which is now happening.

we all know the storey here with quality of the ore and the chinese/japanese contracts which are yet to be finalised.

i think the sp will still go higher from here, how much who knows [25c maybe] but at some stage it is going to pullback for a breather.
the next announcement will tell us more, just how much we will have to wait and see.
the real money will come when they go into production but thats not until july[i think] many things still to do eg build camp, port etc all takes money and time.

azr atm i believe is in the over bought mode and at some stage this will change.
to me buy depth has been a good indicator and i will be watching that very closely along with the other indicators of change. 

i'm staying in till the next announcement -- see what they say then re-assess from there. i think we should know something by monday at the latest.

these are my thoughts in open book form.
i'm still in the learning game and very interested what others think about how to play this stock.

azr is a winner lets get as much out of it as we can.

regards croc


----------



## tech/a (26 January 2005)

*Re: AZR Aztec Resources- Little guy going Up?*

Croc.

Buy and sell depths after the first 2 tiers are pretty meaningless.

Lets face it those logged in to buy at 5 ticks below current price arent all that interested millions are traded while they sit and wait.
They are also buying a falling knife and often disappear when a fall comes.
Those on the sell side are only serious sellers at the first 2 levels as well,any longer and they are just logging to take profit and they often disappear as price rises and chace price when it falls?

A 2-5 min tick chart will tell you way more!

Anyway thats just my veiw!


----------



## RichKid (26 January 2005)

*Re: AZR Aztec Resources- Little guy going Up?*

Funnily enough this is the stage at which most bigger brokers start to get interested. As mentioned elsewhere by Ghotib there was an article in Shares mag discussing how juniour resource stocks get major reratings as soon as they move out of the initial high risk phase- ie securing funding, building plant, securing buyers etc before production. 

Clearly we're not there yet but the tipsheets will now be reassessing the chances for the next few months and I expect greater coverage and support as a result, not just becauae iron ore is on the map. So this is a stage at which I expect more people to come in (rather than out). Look at the number of reports available on the AZR website for example, and that was a year ago when things were much less certain.

The next month will be very volatile imo as funding deals are announced, ore prices are negotiated, new resource upgrades are announced etc. So the sp will be very sensitive to news. I feel I've bought in low enough to absorb most of the volatility- it's the downside risk that is my concern atm.Then it's just a matter of the BFS coming out and construction going ahead. Hope this makes sense, I'm just trying to break it up into different periods while keeping the sp in mind.


----------



## crocdee (26 January 2005)

*Re: AZR Aztec Resources- Little guy going Up?*

hi tech and rich

thanks for the reply now lets see what happens from here. 
atleast we all have a very interesting period ahead.

bring it on 
croc


----------



## doctorj (27 January 2005)

*Re: AZR Aztec Resources- Little guy going Up?*

Good early buy depth again today.  Will be interesting to see how this one fairs over the day.


----------



## RichKid (27 January 2005)

*Re: AZR Aztec Resources- Little guy going Up?*

Annct- nothing much imo, old news from October. Three months since then(Nov, Dec, Jan) let's see if they have something new to offer next month on the more recent work. I think they're just feeding us odds and ends till the real news hits. Still solid depth on buying side despite price falling to 20c.


----------



## tech/a (27 January 2005)

*Re: AZR Aztec Resources- Little guy going Up?*

Ever thought that the news your getting IS THE news??

If it keeps rising then keep it.
If it stops long enough then decide if you want to keep it or move on.
If it falls enough sell it.

No need to guess hypothosise or worry.

But thanks for the info on the announcement.


----------



## crocdee (27 January 2005)

*Re: AZR Aztec Resources- Little guy going Up?*

hi all

just to let you know i'm out @ 20c
whether thats good or bad will have to wait and see. 

will look for a re-entry now in the near future when i think its the right time.

good luck to all who still hold.

regards croc


----------



## doctorj (28 January 2005)

*Re: AZR Aztec Resources- Little guy going Up?*

I'm out on this one too this morning.  My sell order is in at 0.21 and now I'm just going to wait it out.  AZR is a great stock and I wouldn't be at all suprised to find this stock reaches 70c one day in the not too distant future, but its time for me to leave for the time being and buy back in a little bit later on.

Good luck to those that hold AZR, I'll be back with you shortly


----------



## RichKid (28 January 2005)

*Re: AZR Aztec Resources- Little guy going Up?*



			
				tech/a said:
			
		

> Ever thought that the news your getting IS THE news??
> 
> If it keeps rising then keep it.
> If it stops long enough then decide if you want to keep it or move on.
> ...




Good point, this is why the charts determine my strategy (provided I don't get mixed up in the process with all the 'news'). Still away from my stop so no worries and I'm more interested in my other holdings now, AZR trending well even now. We're in February next week and this co will get a move on- it'll all be in the chart- it discounts everything and reflects it in the sp (or so the theory goes). Option expiry on Monday. I'm still not as experienced as you are Tech so till I get the hang of being calm and collected I'll be getting excited about my movers, have to admit AZR is slowly slipping from memory (but always watched) as the danger period is moving away. Will be nice to see solid support becoming evident next month.


----------



## crocdee (29 January 2005)

*Re: AZR Aztec Resources- Little guy going Up?*

hi rich 
as you know i'm now out. the reason why is my reading of the charts indicates a pullback so i'm not waiting for the stop loss to be hit.
have made a good quid on this one and it's in the bank.
do have a lot of faith in azr they are  a winner i just think the sp will take a breather for a while before it takes off again.
todays announcement although positive did nothing for the sp and with the oppies due for conversion on monday @ 20c with the close today @ 20.5c there is no incentive, also in the lead up to the final day there has been no announcement of any oppies being converted. to me it looks like they are lost and a placement is on the cards to Sinom who are going to provide finance for development and construction.

that's they way i read it atm time will tell how it all unfolds.
don't get me wrong there is still a big quid to be made here and i hope i can get some more of it in due course.

will be watching this one very closely 
regards croc


----------



## crocdee (29 January 2005)

*Re: AZR Aztec Resources- Little guy going Up?*

hi doc 
see you are on line what are your thoughts as you have also made an exit.

croc


----------



## tech/a (29 January 2005)

*Re: AZR Aztec Resources- Little guy going Up?*

AZR


----------



## doctorj (29 January 2005)

*Re: AZR Aztec Resources- Little guy going Up?*

Like I've said, AZR has excellent management and should succeed.  I will be looking to buy AZR, especially if they fall as low as tech/a has suggested.


----------



## doctorj (29 January 2005)

*Re: AZR Aztec Resources- Little guy going Up?*

Excuse my foray into comparitive unfamiliar fundamental ground, but it is my advice that perhaps the options finishing in the money is a big positive for Aztec as it edges them ever closer to production.

I'd be very suprised to see it trade at or below 19, but if it does I'll be buying.  I've also repurchased a portion of my original holding at 20.

This forum does have a heavy bias towards short term holds of speccies, but I firmly believe that AZR does have a very positive future and I will look to accumulate this stock.


----------



## RichKid (29 January 2005)

*Re: AZR Aztec Resources- Little guy going Up?*



			
				doctorj said:
			
		

> Excuse my foray into comparitive unfamiliar fundamental ground, but it is my advice that perhaps the options finishing in the money is a big positive for Aztec as it edges them ever closer to production.
> 
> I'd be very suprised to see it trade at or below 19, but if it does I'll be buying.  I've also repurchased a portion of my original holding at 20.
> 
> This forum does have a heavy bias towards short term holds of speccies, but I firmly believe that AZR does have a very positive future and I will look to accumulate this stock.




Yes, I guess I shouldn't be so negative about the options as any effect will be temporary. I'm comfortable seeing this fall towards 18c as the trend took off a bit faster than I thought. Might buy more at that stage but depends on the circumstances (eg if it's a resource upgrade and the sp is sitting around 18c and it starts to rise on volume I'm in as I doubt any upgrade has been priced in to the chart).

As for short term bias, it's probably a sign of the number of inexperienced traders (like me). I for one thought it was easy to make lots of money quick if I had the right entry strategy and good TA but after losing money I know I am wrong. Van Tharp has a brief profile of that type of newbie who either loses all capital or is so scared that they never trade again when their $1k didn't turn into $100k overnight. But since I've woken up a bit and adjusted my money mgmt abit, things have improved dramatically. As Van Tharp says it's getting to know yourself that is the first and most important thing (or something to that effect).

Thanks to various factors ranging from Daryl Guppy's books and Safety in the market's money mgmt emphasis to TechA (great thread on positive expectancy) and Van Tharp etc. Getting there slowly, experience (of any nature) is invaluable! But I'll hold AZR if it runs as I too agree it's a long term story. TA will still determine my strategy, the chart will keep me honest.


----------



## doctorj (29 January 2005)

*Re: AZR Aztec Resources- Little guy going Up?*



			
				RichKid said:
			
		

> Yes, I guess I shouldn't be so negative about the options as any effect will be temporary. .




I guess how negative you are depends on your trading plan and your goals.  If your focus is maximising returns over time by trading stocks then perhaps you should be negative about it.  If however you're happy to ride a stock that has very good prospects in the not too distant future then perhaps you are being overly negative.

Being flexible does have its advantages, however I suggest borrowing a cliche from sport - stick to the gameplan.


----------



## RichKid (29 January 2005)

*Re: AZR Aztec Resources- Little guy going Up?*



			
				doctorj said:
			
		

> however I suggest borrowing a cliche from sport - stick to the gameplan.




Touche! Yes, I mustn't get distracted. I've got my strategy written down for this stock, just have to follow it, exit time is still some way away. Tech's approach is probably an example of how you begin to focus on the material factors (rather than the irrelevant fears and hopes playing on my mind) after years of experience.


----------



## doctorj (29 January 2005)

*Re: AZR Aztec Resources- Little guy going Up?*



			
				RichKid said:
			
		

> Yes, I mustn't get distracted. I've got my strategy written down for this stock, just have to follow it, exit time is still some way away.




You physically right down a strategy for each stock you trade?  I'm impressed, I may just try this myself.  I'm prone to occasionally diverting from my original strategy (with good and bad results).  This may just help.


----------



## RichKid (29 January 2005)

*Re: AZR Aztec Resources- Little guy going Up?*



			
				doctorj said:
			
		

> You physically right down a strategy for each stock you trade?  I'm impressed, I may just try this myself.  I'm prone to occasionally diverting from my original strategy (with good and bad results).  This may just help.




Mate, if it was as simple as following what I'd written I'd be much better off. But believe me it IS REALLY HARD FOLLOWING MY PLAN!! Writing it took me a long time and it may be completely wrong. I do not allow myself to place an order without having a written plan with specifics. Makes me think twice about the whole trade that way.
I basically break down my trade into entry, trigger, exit, positions size, risks etc and fill in details for each trade BEFORE entry. Still getting there and this will change but it gives me peace of mind. Even when I lose money at least I can see where I went wrong (most of the time). Sometimes I find I don't really write down the REAL reason I set a stop at a certain level or why I entered at a certain price but I'm getting to know my wiley inner self and am getting a bit better. Long way to go though. I still can't understand the numbers and matrix in Tech's position sizing thread (hence the reason I'm reading Guppy and Van Tharp) but do want to succeed. I'm a newbie so be warned but there is nothing wrong with writing it down!  

I'll only know if my written tactic works in a year or so.

See the threads on trading plans- a few months old but there are some good links in those threads. That was when I was getting started with writing things down. These forums are GREAT!


----------



## tech/a (30 January 2005)

*Re: AZR Aztec Resources- Little guy going Up?*

R/K great idea to write down your plan.
Just a couple of ideas.
If your trading in a discretionary manner dont be afraid to alter it in reaction to the latest price action.
Have a FIXED STOP.
If you ever design a mechanical system then everything must be fixed.

KISS Keep it Simple (And due to flack from below "Sensible") just doesnt sound the same does it!   

* I still can't understand the numbers and matrix in Tech's position sizing thread (hence the reason I'm reading Guppy and Van Tharp) but do want to succeed. I'm a newbie so be warned but there is nothing wrong with writing it down!*

Perhaps Ill let this be answered by some others who seem keen to take over some educating.If there is no reply or your answers arent clear then Im happy to help out.

I did notice you didnt mail me for the Matrix? Youll get a far better knowledge using it than just talking about it.

tech


----------



## RichKid (30 January 2005)

*Re: AZR Aztec Resources- Little guy going Up?*



			
				tech/a said:
			
		

> R/K great idea to write down your plan.
> Just a couple of ideas.
> If your trading in a discretionary manner dont be afraid to alter it in reaction to the latest price action.
> Have a FIXED STOP.
> ...



G'day Tech,
Thanks for the tips, much appreciated. In fact I'm still in the early stages hence need to get around the basics of my plan. I do move my stop up but not down. So are you saying you don't move it at all? Also need to know how to react to price action without losing consistency of method- that is the only way I'll be able to assess its success. Maybe if I do well I'll be able to move to a predominantly mechanincal system. Don't have the software for it yet so it'll take time.

 I also note that as Guppy says one of the advantages we traders have is that we can trade when we want to (unlike instos who have to be in the market), so I'm trying to be patient and not overtrade.

As for the Matrix, I thought if I'd emailed for it I'll just end up saving it and doing nothing, thanks very much for making it available. I'm not an excel expert so that's another reason I'll have to take it easy at first. I haven't even organised my data properly and honestly I don't have the time atm to get things in order so I'm trying to gear down my trading till my records are organized and then go full throttle on your thread and plug in figures into the matrix. I'm also one of those people who like to look at the mathematical theory so I really know what the figures produced by the matrix are showing so that I can understand the use of the formulas- all this takes a bit of thinking. I also like Van Tharps explanations it gives me a better idea of what you are referring to Tech, as you obviously can't spell out every single point or idea since the audience is so varied here. I suppose you'll want to write a book on your experiences, methods or something in future, might be fun. I'm still reading Tharp. Still getting to know my personal risk tolerences etc and haven't finalised my goals. It all starts on the inside. 

And yes! (ha ha) KISS is the motto and it makes me more comfortable as well- just difficult at first simplifying it and seeing if it works. I got carried away at the start and thought I could do anything. I'll leave complex derivatives and high leverage plays to the experts.

AZR will test my exit strategies as it has gone past the stop and has solid fundamentals (something I look for to reduce risk in my trading). Anyway, won't goo too much off thread here, might have to move it to your pos expec thread. Thanks for the encouragement.


----------



## doctorj (31 January 2005)

*Re: AZR Aztec Resources- Little guy going Up?*

Looks like perhaps selling was a mistake, though I guess nobody ever went broke taking a profit.  

Now its just a matter of waiting to see how long it takes them to come out of the halt.


----------



## tech/a (31 January 2005)

*Re: AZR Aztec Resources- Little guy going Up?*

*though I guess nobody ever went broke taking a profit. * 

They can actually.
It does happen.Lets say you take 10/10% profits on capital of $20k
During those 10% profits you have one loss thats costing you $6500 and you dont want to take the loss(You know how it is) and youve taken 5/15% losses of $3000.Your capital is slowley eroded.

No one ever went broke taking enough profit,and ofcourse enough needs to be quantified.


----------



## doctorj (31 January 2005)

*Re: AZR Aztec Resources- Little guy going Up?*

Fair call.  Fortunately my capital doesn't look like doing that atleast for the moment.  Any guesses as to when it will come out of the halt?


----------



## crocdee (31 January 2005)

*Re: AZR Aztec Resources- Little guy going Up?*

february 2nd


----------



## RichKid (31 January 2005)

*Re: AZR Aztec Resources- Little guy going Up?*

The anncmt says 2Feb or earlier (if annct is released before then). I'd go with Croc and say it'll be the 2nd Feb.
BTW, what is AZRN? Listed as some sort of deferred option?? In the notice. Comsec doesn't show any price history. Reckon it's a new issue to be announced? The annoucement could be anything from AZROA exercise to a financing deal or resource upgrade (may be a bit early). Have to wait and see.


----------



## doctorj (31 January 2005)

*Re: AZR Aztec Resources- Little guy going Up?*

Possibly even an underwriter for the options.


----------



## RichKid (31 January 2005)

*Re: AZR Aztec Resources- Little guy going Up?*



			
				doctorj said:
			
		

> Possibly even an underwriter for the options.




Yes, good point Doc, could be that, I recall Croc flagging that as well. So how would that work? 

Does the underwriter just take up (for free?) all the unexercised (expired) options by buying that number of shares at 20c by paying the co? 

I don't hold AZROA but I'm keen to know.


----------



## crocdee (31 January 2005)

*Re: AZR Aztec Resources- Little guy going Up?*

pays company 20c for all unexcersised oppies.
only guessing but that looks like what's happening.
if it does i think sp will pullback a little.

regards croc


----------



## RichKid (31 January 2005)

*Re: AZR Aztec Resources- Little guy going Up?*



			
				crocdee said:
			
		

> pays company 20c for all unexcersised oppies.
> only guessing but that looks like what's happening.
> if it does i think sp will pullback a little.
> 
> regards croc




So if I hold AZROA (I had a high risk strategy outlined a number of posts above) I only have the choice of converting to shares at 20c per option held.
(rather than selling an AZROA oppy at 20c to the underwriter (which would have been a HUGE profit for those who bought AZROA at 0.001c, and would be unprofitable to the underwriter- glad I didn't go ahead with it! It was close though).

Thanks Croc, let's see how it goes, I hope any dilution (and repricing) doesn't trigger my stop or it'll complicate things.


----------



## doctorj (31 January 2005)

*Re: AZR Aztec Resources- Little guy going Up?*

For those lurkers following this thread, AZR confirmed the underwriting of all of its unexercised options today as expected.  

What this does to the share price remains to be seen. It is likely the shareprice will retract tomorrow, especially given the triple top formation from Friday's close.  How much remains to be seen.


----------



## RichKid (31 January 2005)

*Re: AZR Aztec Resources- Little guy going Up?*

Anncts look good, director buying at 20c for $100k (albeit due to Director's option exercise) is not bad at all. Also like the terms of the option issue to underwriters, might be standard but seeing AZR over 30c is nice so no dilution there in the short term. 

So only need to get through this next week or so after AZROA conversion. Another interesting fortnight ahead.


----------



## doctorj (1 February 2005)

*Re: AZR Aztec Resources- Little guy going Up?*

I'll be watching closely for opportunities to buy over the coming days.


----------



## doctorj (1 February 2005)

*Re: AZR Aztec Resources- Little guy going Up?*

On AIM, AZR closed at what is approximately equivalent to 22.5c, so perhaps those buying opportunities won't come. 

AZR's AIM Quote


----------



## RichKid (1 February 2005)

*Re: AZR Aztec Resources- Little guy going Up?*

You never know doc, people might get nervous and you may get some at your order price. Still 20c seems solid but option exercise may test it temporarily, Tech reckons it wont affect the pricing, if he's right (the sp is staying strong) then buying around 20c wont be bad as this will turn into a strong run. Every annct so far has reduced the risk profile of the co, that is what is holding it back atm. Hope you get the price you're after.
As for AIM prices, things always fluctuate between markets so be watchful.


----------



## doctorj (1 February 2005)

*Re: AZR Aztec Resources- Little guy going Up?*

Looks like 19.5 may be tested tomorrow, pending what orders come in before open tomorrow.  I've picked up another portion of these today and will continue to look for opportunities to do so.


----------



## crocdee (2 February 2005)

*Re: AZR Aztec Resources- Little guy going Up?*

i still think sp will pullback to 18.5c possibly 18c in the short term.
definetly a wait and see for me.

regards croc


----------



## doctorj (3 February 2005)

*Re: AZR Aztec Resources- Little guy going Up?*

Close at market highs yesterday is a bullish signal for this one.  Most likely just seeing what I want to though.  However, a good announcement this morning for AZR and pre-open sees 2.7mill shares on the buy side at or above 21.5 a share.

This stock continues to suprise me.


----------



## RichKid (3 February 2005)

*Re: AZR Aztec Resources- Little guy going Up?*

Here's the release, I'm surprised by the buy depth too but when you look at it things couldn't be better for AZR, everything has gone to plan so far (even the oppies are fine) only the resource upgrade left to be announced as exploration continues further upgrades are likely and the iron ore price negotiations are nearing completion worldwide. The underwriting agreement specified 30c as a condition of exercise, which indicates that is the next stop in the medium term for the share price.

....Well, went upto 22.5c there for a bit on open, volume ALREADY AT 11 million!! Another record day coming up. Compare AZR to Fortescue's venture, no BGS even yet and they think they're in heaven. Much better to be in a steady strong mover like AZR for iron ore imo, with top management! Read the Fortescue story in Crickey.com for some interesting info.



> 3 February 2005
> ASX RELEASE
> Buyers Signed for 100% of Proposed Iron Ore Production
> Aztec Resources Limited now has buyers committed to take all iron ore produced from its proposed 2 million tonne per annum iron ore mine at Koolan Island, Western Australia for the coming 15 years.
> ...


----------



## RichKid (4 February 2005)

*Re: AZR Aztec Resources- Little guy going Up?*

AZR is holding up well, looks like it'll be mid February before the price effect of the option exercise is known. Today's annct said 14 February, only some holders have converted so the underwriters will be useful.


----------



## doctorj (8 February 2005)

*Re: AZR Aztec Resources- Little guy going Up?*

With buyers at 0.22 and a nice strong close at 0.225, we could be in for an interesting few days.


----------



## RichKid (9 February 2005)

*Re: AZR Aztec Resources- Little guy going Up?*

Yep doc! Looking good, hit 23.5 this morning and very high volume on the up again suggesting this'll gradually climb through to 24c.

Have you read the annct on the underwriting arrangement from last week? If what I see is correct we hardly have to worry about dilution till the sp gets to over 30c as they aren't allowed to exercise their 23c options till then.

There was only a small number of AZROA 20c options converted, at these prices and volumes it wont have a big effect imo. If many more AZROA holders had converted the story would have been different. 

The current trend line is nice and steep and all the recent lows have been bouncing off it.


----------



## RichKid (9 February 2005)

*Re: AZR Aztec Resources- Little guy going Up?*

I'm still surprised by the buy depth and volume (16m today) but it just goes to show what happens when the market gets behing a stock that wasn't on the radar screens and revalues it from the silly price it was at not long ago (recall the old broker valuations of 23c before recent resource upgrades). I thought this may go sideways for a few days but people are obviously expecting more good things soon, let's hope the anncts don't dissapoint.


----------



## doctorj (10 February 2005)

*Re: AZR Aztec Resources- Little guy going Up?*

It is still edging its way up and finding new support levels.  With the results of the BFS due soon and the resource upgrade presumably somewhere in the near future the 30c target for those options may only be a month away. 

I too have been impressed by the depth.  I'd decided to stop trading this share after taking a cent and a bit here and there back around the 20c mark and shove it in the bottom draw, but all this action seems to warrent following it more closely.  The way it hit 23.5 early this morning seemed particularly encouraging.


----------



## doctorj (14 February 2005)

*Re: AZR Aztec Resources- Little guy going Up?*

Maybe not.  This has lost 2.5c between its high of 23.5 to now.  I wonder if the market believes 21-22c represents fair value for AZR.


----------



## RichKid (14 February 2005)

*Re: AZR Aztec Resources- Little guy going Up?*

Yep, falling back abit, may go to 20c judging by depth, probably just sitting tight waiting on more news. Hard to say for sure but volume has dropped. Resouce upgrade news should come sooner than the BSF, the BSF may take till next month but if we're lucky it'll be sooner. If I recall correctly the co said BSF completion was expected first quarter 2005 which technically gives them till March, unless they extend it to second 2Q05.


----------



## tech/a (15 February 2005)

*Re: AZR Aztec Resources- Little guy going Up?*

Sold this morning at 20.5


----------



## doctorj (15 February 2005)

*Re: AZR Aztec Resources- Little guy going Up?*

Well, it certainly has been a decent fall.  It bounced off the high of 23.5 and back down to 20 - where support is beginning to look a bit shakey.  I wonder what has been the catalyst of all this.  AZR has dropped like a stone the second someone bought at 23.5.


----------



## crocdee (15 February 2005)

*Re: AZR Aztec Resources- Little guy going Up?*



			
				doctorj said:
			
		

> Well, it certainly has been a decent fall.  It bounced off the high of 23.5 and back down to 20 - where support is beginning to look a bit shakey.  I wonder what has been the catalyst of all this.  AZR has dropped like a stone the second someone bought at 23.5.




hi doc
well my oppion is they got their money for the oppies.
still a lot of work to do to bring this one into production.
there will be another buying opportunity soon then blue sky ahead.

regards croc


----------



## Warren Buffet II (15 February 2005)

*Re: AZR Aztec Resources- Little guy going Up?*



			
				crocdee said:
			
		

> hi doc
> well my oppion is they got their money for the oppies.
> still a lot of work to do to bring this one into production.
> there will be another buying opportunity soon then blue sky ahead.
> ...




blue sky ahead   

There are so many stock out there to wait for that blue sky.


----------



## crocdee (15 February 2005)

*Re: AZR Aztec Resources- Little guy going Up?*

wb
why do you keep repeating yourself
croc


----------



## Warren Buffet II (15 February 2005)

*Re: AZR Aztec Resources- Little guy going Up?*



			
				crocdee said:
			
		

> wb
> why do you keep repeating yourself
> croc




I would like to ask you the same question?

Regards,

WBII


----------



## Bingo (15 February 2005)

*Re: AZR Aztec Resources- Little guy going Up?*

This one looks to me atht is it having a rest and will go to new highs by the end of Feb.

Bingo


----------



## RichKid (15 February 2005)

*Re: AZR Aztec Resources- Little guy going Up?*

Agree with the general sentiment about a breather for profit taking and also while the weak hands who jumped in during the general iron ore run get out. Then it'll be just the true believers (or those who bought low enough) looking to continue. It aint over yet folks!

WBII, if we just said blue sky for this stock then you'd be justified in being cynical but this is a long thread and you will see our reasons (both technical and fundamental) for supporting this stock over many months. Hope you don't overuse that red thumbs down icon, it's kinda depressing for us AZR fans ; )

I've noticed this is a volatile time for steel related stocks like BSL and OST, they've been yoyoing recently, maybe the uncertainty over iron ore price negotiations and profit anncts for the half yearleis etc. All will settle after February and trends will become clearer imo.


----------



## doctorj (15 February 2005)

*Re: AZR Aztec Resources- Little guy going Up?*

Good call, myself and other AZR holders have seen more red than we're used to of late.  Like Tech, I sold a portion, but at 0.21.  I still retain a holding of AZR, happy to wait out till March.

I guess the sudden drop from the rosey looking high at 23.5 which was supported by good depth just caught me a little off guard, fortunately it didn't catch my stops off guard.


----------



## RichKid (15 February 2005)

*Re: AZR Aztec Resources- Little guy going Up?*

Hi doc,
Yes, it's good to be watchful when prices are volatile or in uncharted territory.
I have heard from people who hadn't been in AZR before and they just jumped in with the crowd for a quick buck on iron ore news, I was wondering how long it would take those short timers to jump out and looks like it is happening now. Let's see where this stabilizes. My stop is still at 17.5c (or was that 18c? gotta check my plan) so it's still safe, was tempted to take profits at 23c but that wasn't the plan (unless volume had been weak) so I'm going along waiting for the resource upgrade and and other news, share price spike in the interim was just a bonus for me. Who knows I may be stopped out but I have faith in the technicals and the co. The trend of course is more important as it's what the market thinks of the sp.


----------



## doctorj (15 February 2005)

*Re: AZR Aztec Resources- Little guy going Up?*

So I guess we sit back and get out the old magnifying glass and cast our eye over other companies for the time being.  I wonder if I can drum up some discussion in FAR.  I'm keen to hear what others think of it


----------



## RichKid (15 February 2005)

*Re: AZR Aztec Resources- Little guy going Up?*

Keep a close eye on AZR till it settles.

See my comments here about FAR: https://www.aussiestockforums.com/forums/showthread.php?t=961


----------



## crocdee (16 February 2005)

*Re: AZR Aztec Resources- Little guy going Up?*

hi rich
may fall to 19c possibly 18c then it will bounce 
don't think it would be a good idea to sell if your stop is hit

regards croc


----------



## tech/a (16 February 2005)

*Re: AZR Aztec Resources- Little guy going Up?*

Why have a stop then?


----------



## doctorj (16 February 2005)

*Re: AZR Aztec Resources- Little guy going Up?*

With the way the market depth has been the past month, I  believe that if, as you suggest it gets thru 19 to 18.5, the SP is going to be in World's of hurt in the near term.  There's really not a lot there to hold it up in the near term and if as you suggest it gets thru 18.5, I believe it may reach as low as the 14-16cps.  That said, 19.0 looks pretty solid, so perhaps we won't get the buying opportunity.

Croc, I have to ask, why would you suggest we don't sell when it hits our stops?


----------



## crocdee (16 February 2005)

*Re: AZR Aztec Resources- Little guy going Up?*

tech
just my oppinion
i raise my stops as the sp increases. isn't that what one should do ?
you sold @ 20.5c presumably thats what you did
no doubt you will probably buy back when you get the right signal i know i will

croc


----------



## crocdee (16 February 2005)

*Re: AZR Aztec Resources- Little guy going Up?*

doc 
not suggesting you don't sell when stops are hit thats why you put stops in place.
stops should be raised as the sp rises and as AZR hit 23.5c rich's stop should be higher than 17.5c therefore locking in profit on the way up.

with the f/as behind AZR you would not think the retacement would fall lower than its support level @ 18c but you just never really know as trading is a day to day business

regards croc


----------



## doctorj (16 February 2005)

*Re: AZR Aztec Resources- Little guy going Up?*

Thanks for clarifying, you're first post was a little... ambigious.


----------



## tech/a (16 February 2005)

*Re: AZR Aztec Resources- Little guy going Up?*

Agree with you both.
I sold not because of a stop but a technical fall from its rise.
As I did with ZFX as well.
The short term trend was broken.
I may go back in if I have spare funds,Currently havent opened any more positions.

I must say I dont like discretionary trading,its like trading in a reactionary manner.For me taking a little bit here and there and hoping to get a positive overall return is too time consuming and because I only allocate a smll amount of $$$s to it not worth the time .

Much prefer getting on a decient trade with a decient buy and riding it for as long as it holds a primary trend.

But thats me.
I guess everyone wants instant gratification.(Its human nature)
But you know Ive always found that the slow and steady method of wealth creation has always come out with the biggest returns in business,property and stocks.

tech


----------



## RichKid (16 February 2005)

*Re: AZR Aztec Resources- Little guy going Up?*

Yep, it is hard knowing when to exit, I checked my plan and stop was last raised from 17c to 17.5c (mentioned it somewhere in this thread). Still think solid support at 17.5c and see no reason why AZR wont recover after a breather. Can always buy in again if I need to. I suppose I could have sold at 23c or thereabouts but there is too much good news to flow to exit this one, if it was a lesser stock I would have sold as soon as it went above 22c and just banked the profit and moved on.
Let's see if I win on this one.


BTW, Croc/anyone do you know when news of iron ore price negotioation (ie new prices) will be released by BHP/OST etc? That will have a bearing on AZR too.


----------



## crocdee (16 February 2005)

*Re: AZR Aztec Resources- Little guy going Up?*

hi rich

you are testing my memory bank here  and after pondering for a while i think it is somewhere towards the end of march but can't recall where i read it.
sorry i'm not more specific.

regards croc


----------



## RichKid (17 February 2005)

*Re: AZR Aztec Resources- Little guy going Up?*



			
				crocdee said:
			
		

> hi rich
> 
> you are testing my memory bank here  and after pondering for a while i think it is somewhere towards the end of march but can't recall where i read it.
> sorry i'm not more specific.
> ...




Thanks for trying to remember croc, I'll keep an eye out for news in the press; negotiations take awhile, they have several rounds apparently.


----------



## doctorj (22 February 2005)

*Re: AZR Aztec Resources- Little guy going Up?*

Finally something happenning here.  I was beginning to consider selling out and shifting to action elsewhere. 

Two small parcels of shares totalling 13000 went today, either side of 640,000 shares going at 20.5.  Not sure what it means yet.  Why take only a few thousand dollars worth half a cent higher than what its been trading at for days? Inexperienced Commsec types? Or someone trying to rattle the cage?


----------



## doctorj (22 February 2005)

*Re: AZR Aztec Resources- Little guy going Up?*

About 108k shares went for 0.21 and the it managed to close at the daily high on a volume of 2,400,000.

Any thoughts on this from the enlightened amongst us, or is my inclination to find volitility in the short term a move I should make?


----------



## tech/a (22 February 2005)

*Re: AZR Aztec Resources- Little guy going Up?*

technically AZR seems to have found a bottom at 19c and this thrust to 21c looks like the correction is over.
Any trading above the last high will be very positive and any trading below 19c will mean that Im wrong.


----------



## RichKid (22 February 2005)

*Re: AZR Aztec Resources- Little guy going Up?*

Up and down to be expected, if no news in the next week or two I expect it to go lower into late teens.
Wish these iron ore price negoatiations didn't take as long, I hope Burston is a top class negotiator! Relations are supposed to be tense between iron ore producers and steel makers.
Resource upgrade may be announced in the interim, any spike in volume will foretell an annct imo.


----------



## doctorj (22 February 2005)

*Re: AZR Aztec Resources- Little guy going Up?*

Was going to post this in another thread, but didn't think it was warrented.

Shamelessly stolen from a well informed chap at Sharescene.

435 words 
22 February 2005
19:03
Dow Jones International News
English
 © 2005 Dow Jones & Company, Inc. 

TOKYO (Dow Jones)--Nippon Steel Corp. (5401.TO) said Tuesday it has agreed to a 71.5% hike in the price of iron ore it will buy from Companhia Vale do Rio Doce SA (RIO) in the fiscal year starting April. 

Japan's largest steel maker said it will pay between $36.80 and $37.36 per dry metric ton, up 71.5% from the price it has been paying this fiscal year through March. [ 22-02-05 0823GMT ] 

The jump in prices for Rio Doce's iron ore means Nippon Steel and other Japanese steel makers may have to accept similar price hikes in negotiations with Australian producers. 

Nippon Steel said that based on the latest agreement with Rio Doce, it will continue making efforts to reach an agreement on prices in talks with Rio Tinto Ltd.'s (RTP) unit Hamersley and BHP Billiton Ltd. (BHP). 

The 71.5% rise in Brazilian iron ore prices is larger than the 50% increase reported by local media since late last year. 

The leap in price for next fiscal year, fueled by robust steel demand particularly in China, may be damaging to steel makers worldwide if they can't fully pass on the increased raw materials costs to their own prices for steel sheet and plate products. 

Steel makers are also grappling with rising coal prices and freight charges. 

Japan's top three steel makers, including JFE Holdings Inc. (5411.TO) and Sumitomo Metal Industries Ltd. (5405.TO), agreed late last year to a rise in coking coal prices for next fiscal year. They will pay around $125 per metric ton after their talks with one of their main suppliers, BMA, a joint venture of BHP Billiton and Mitsubishi Corp. (5058.TO). That is a painful hike from $50-$60 a ton they have been paying this fiscal year. 

After agreeing on their raw materials prices, the steel makers will start full-fledged price negotiations with major steel users such as auto makers and shipbuilders. If they raise their steel product prices again, fiscal 2005 would be the fourth consecutive year that Japanese steel makers have done so. 

Nippon Steel has estimated that the expected increases in raw material prices and shipping costs will translate into a Y1 trillion jump in production costs across Japan's steel-making industry the next fiscal year, adding to the Y700 billion increase estimated for this fiscal year.


----------



## RichKid (23 February 2005)

*Re: AZR Aztec Resources- Little guy going Up?*

Doc, shameless or not that's a great grab of info! Should be reflected in iron ore stocks and puts pressure on Burston to get a good price. Bad news for iron ore consumers like BSL but not for OST as they produce their own iron ore (see relevant threads for more info). BSL has pricing power though to pass on costs.

My understanding is that any Brazilian hike will be less than what Aussie producers will be able to squeeze out (ie Aussies will get a 70%++ hike if we're good at negotiating). What do you all think?

(PS. correct me if I'm wrong but do the Japanese use alphanumeric codes for their stocks, looks like a number followed by abbreviation for Tokyo stock exchange?)


----------



## crocdee (23 February 2005)

*Re: AZR Aztec Resources- Little guy going Up?*

hi all
looks like AZR is off again for another little run
market depth quite strong

regards croc


----------



## doctorj (23 February 2005)

*Re: AZR Aztec Resources- Little guy going Up?*

Tomorrow or Friday would be a damn good time to come out with the BFS, give a little more fuel to the run as I doubt it will get higher than 0.23 on the back of Iron Ore prices.

Interesting is Portman, I bought a small line of 3000 shares yesterday on hearing CSFB were still buying, they're up 6% so far this morning with decent buy depth.  Perhaps another TO offer in the works?


----------



## tech/a (23 February 2005)

*Re: AZR Aztec Resources- Little guy going Up?*

PMM yes have held for many months nice to see a move again.
One of the good points of long term holding caught the gap up as well.


----------



## doctorj (26 February 2005)

*Re: AZR Aztec Resources- Little guy going Up?*

Well, it looks as though something happened after 2pm EDST yesterday.  Great price action for those that hold, including what is a rumour of a u bidder buying up at 24c.  

It disappeared at about close, but it should provide a fairly reasonable floor to the price in the short term while we continue to wait for the BFS and upgrade.  

All up a good week for those that hold while we continue to wait out the period of time before mining starts.


----------



## doctorj (28 February 2005)

*Re: AZR Aztec Resources- Little guy going Up?*

8.5 mill shares traded, peak at 25.5 - could be another good week.


----------



## RichKid (28 February 2005)

*Re: AZR Aztec Resources- Little guy going Up?*

An article on iron ore price negotiations, imo the recent price rise in AZR is due to the iron ore price hike, hence probable resource upgrade and BFS completion not built in yet (BFS needs to be positive re costs and timeframe for AZR to really fly). Wonder if AZR will be forced to undercut the big players? Let's hope BHP gets the premium it wants for the freight advantage as this would flow on to other Aussie miners. This frenzy is not going to last more than a year or two so we might as well reap the profits while we can. The sooner AZR goes into production the better, we're lucky the work started months ago.

http://www.theaustralian.news.com.au/common/story_page/0,5744,12372237%5E643,00.html


----------



## RichKid (28 February 2005)

*Re: AZR Aztec Resources- Little guy going Up?*

A solid day today, might even be an all time high for volume (haven't checked yet). If the pattern holds (ie no new news in the next week or so) then it'll fall back a bit to the low 20s and then rebound. A nice trend support line developing since the breakout, nice angle too.


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## RichKid (2 March 2005)

*Re: AZR Aztec Resources- Little guy going Up?*

Has anyone been able to read the latest (feb 05) Grange Securities report on AZR? It's in pdf on the AZR website but it doesn't open. If anyone else has any luck let me know as it may be my computer/software. (I'm able to open other Acrobat docs but not that one). If it's a universal problem then AZR we'll have to fix it. I'm interested in the new figures Grange may have come up with for AZR since it's reached their previous target.

http://www.aztecresources.com.au (click on 'Investor' and then 'broker/presentations')

Please let me know if anyone is able to read the report.


----------



## doctorj (3 March 2005)

*Re: AZR Aztec Resources- Little guy going Up?*

Works normally here.

Check you are using the latest version of adobe reader (www.adobe.com)


----------



## RichKid (3 March 2005)

*Re: AZR Aztec Resources- Little guy going Up?*



			
				doctorj said:
			
		

> Works normally here.
> 
> Check you are using the latest version of adobe reader (www.adobe.com)




Thanks doc, I've actually got the newest version- some people say the older versions are more reliable. Might have to dowload Acrobat 6 again. 

Is the report good? I'll see if I can read it tomorrow. Remember that Grange have a vested interest as they are very close to AZR and underwrite, gives us something to work with though.


----------



## doctorj (3 March 2005)

*Re: AZR Aztec Resources- Little guy going Up?*

The report was very dry.  It felt as though I'd read it before.

I haven't had the chance to compare it to old ones, but it was dated Jan 28 - so I may well have read it.

It lists the current at 19c and a 12month target of 31cps.  It only factors in an assumed 30% rise in Ore prices and says the BFS is due March/April.


----------



## RichKid (3 March 2005)

*Re: AZR Aztec Resources- Little guy going Up?*



			
				doctorj said:
			
		

> It lists the current at 19c and a 12month target of 31cps.  It only factors in an assumed 30% rise in Ore prices and says the BFS is due March/April.




Thanks doc, it's the unexpected increase in prices that has the iron ore sector alight. You can bet your bottom dollar we'll be looking well above 30c now, closer to 40c perhaps with the resource upgrade (which is near double the current AZR price, which is why I'm holding). Once it actually gets production going by the end of the year or early next year I'd say it'll be 50c plus. My view is that as other resource stocks slow on higher costs and stabilizing Chinese demand iron ore players may see more people switch into them, especially as they become producers. Remember that Aztec is still exploring the remainder of Koolan. Let's see what type of price Burston gets out of them, it doesn't have to be 71% for us to target 35c+ as even 60% will be a significant re-rating.

The good news apart from the expected resource upgrade is the imminent release of the BFS, I'd give it at least a few weeks. The Aussie dollar may go a bit lower after the next interest hike so that'll add to the attractiveness of the BFS figures. I have a feeling they'll release the upgrade close to the BFS. The biggest risks in the next 12mths are operational/construction problems as is typical for this stage of a venture.


----------



## doctorj (3 March 2005)

*Re: AZR Aztec Resources- Little guy going Up?*

From the completely unsubstantiated rumour bin (read: Hotcopper), somebody is claiming they plan to upgrade reserves by 50%, due in the next 4-6 weeks.


----------



## RichKid (3 March 2005)

*Re: AZR Aztec Resources- Little guy going Up?*

I think that is expected from previous anncts and discussion but I don't know the exact figure or when it'll be released. I'll see if I can dig up a recent presentation to that effect. I expect further upgrades over the next 12-18mths as drilling progresses.

...Doc I may not have time to dig up the estimate but I think it was either in one of the broker reports on the site or in a Burston/Co comment/annct.

I wouldn't sweat on this one, it'll be positive, only issue is how much is incorporated in the sp and how much is the market expecting. Both answers appear to be positive in view of the current sp imho.


----------



## RichKid (7 March 2005)

*Re: AZR Aztec Resources- Little guy going Up?*

AZR seems to be holding up a bit stronger than expected, thought it may settle abit. Nice to see.


----------



## doctorj (7 March 2005)

*Re: AZR Aztec Resources- Little guy going Up?*

Buy recommendation in The Age this weekend had targets of 30c and then 50c for AZR.


----------



## RichKid (7 March 2005)

*Re: AZR Aztec Resources- Little guy going Up?*



			
				doctorj said:
			
		

> Buy recommendation in The Age this weekend had targets of 30c and then 50c for AZR.




Geez Doc, you sure have your ear to the ground, that is good news to hear as punters can't get enough of these stocks atm and it'll keep AZR up (only risk is added volatility when people who buy off newspaper tips jump in), I wonder where they got the 50c from? Do you recall the name of the columnist that tipped it? Usually the columnists get their tips from tipsheets or brokers (or just plain rumour).

I found this in The Age about AZR and others resources co's but no ref to a target price:
http://www.theage.com.au/news/Barry...the-spoilt-brat/2005/02/06/1107625064493.html


----------



## RichKid (7 March 2005)

*Re: AZR Aztec Resources- Little guy going Up?*

Latest AZR chart. Early days yet but this appears to be developing into a nice uptrend channel. A pullback of a cent or two should not surprise. If more newspapers and tipsheets start to tip this one then there may be odd spikes here and there.


----------



## doctorj (7 March 2005)

*Re: AZR Aztec Resources- Little guy going Up?*

Sellers were pretty thick all day today, any thoughts (ie. TA) regarding AZR's near term future?


----------



## RichKid (7 March 2005)

*Re: AZR Aztec Resources- Little guy going Up?*



			
				doctorj said:
			
		

> Sellers were pretty thick all day today, any thoughts (ie. TA) regarding AZR's near term future?




Looks like we were posting around the same time doc! Any views on my observations above on the chart? Buy depth would suggest a small decline.


----------



## tech/a (8 March 2005)

*Re: AZR Aztec Resources- Little guy going Up?*

Pretty normal trend developement.
Higher highs and higher lows.


----------



## doctorj (9 March 2005)

*Re: AZR Aztec Resources- Little guy going Up?*

What a morning!

Up 2.5cps on the back of nearly 15million traded! And that's just the first hour...


----------



## RichKid (9 March 2005)

*Re: AZR Aztec Resources- Little guy going Up?*

Looks like AZR is leaking news- motoring towards 30c, probably an incorporation of the resource upgrade and iron ore price hike finally being reflected in the sp. Remember that the old (over one year ago) sp valuation by the brokers at about 23c was before the iron ore price rises and before any definite resource upgrade upside. Might be further entries for newcomers once it settles on the lower side of the channel again.

Are you holding on to your seat Doc? I know this would have got you excited ; ) I didn't expect it to fire up so soon. But as Tech says, it is just normal movement for a stock that is trending this way. Let's see how the volumes hold. Currently at 28c (10c above where most of us here entered).


----------



## doctorj (9 March 2005)

*Re: AZR Aztec Resources- Little guy going Up?*

Sitting back and watching the show and planning that trip to -really- run with the bulls in Spain!

In all seriousness though, it's not going to suprise me to see AZR as a 60-70cps company, with more upside if the resource upgrade is a serious one (ie. in the realm of the rumour).


----------



## RichKid (9 March 2005)

*Re: AZR Aztec Resources- Little guy going Up?*



			
				doctorj said:
			
		

> Sitting back and watching the show and planning that trip to -really- run with the bulls in Spain!
> 
> In all seriousness though, it's not going to suprise me to see AZR as a 60-70cps company, with more upside if the resource upgrade is a serious one (ie. in the realm of the rumour).




Doc,
Are you referring to the estimated 50% upgrade? News should come through before long judging by the volumes (AZR normally vol spikes before an annct). The real upside is in the relatively unexplored areas on Koolan. I'm not good at number crunching so I don't know when it'll justify a 60c+ valuation but I know it'll get there if it goes like this. Remember it still hasn't started producing anthing so we have to watch the charts carefully. 

BHP did a good job of flooding the pit and destroying ('dismantling') the jetty and infrastructure or they'd be producing by now. Also heard that BHP is expecting an 100% increase in iron ore prices, they are holding out for that figure. Might get 90%- just my guess. A lot is upto Burston now, he's got to get the best price, the higher BHP goes the higher Burston can go.

PS I'm also in FXR (Fox Resources, same MD as AZR), might be another goer, similar shareholders too. Not a tip as such, more a technical story after sp dilution. I started a thread on it, let me know if you've heard any news in the FXR thread (https://www.aussiestockforums.com/forums/showthread.php?p=8401#post8401.)


----------



## RichKid (17 March 2005)

*Re: AZR Aztec Resources- Little guy going Up?*

Well, up to 30c recently, near vertical climb for AZR and still more news to come. Looks like the major action is due for April/May going by the indication in the recent annct. Let's see if they can get that resource upgrade out this month, they have lots of time to do the maths. When AZR becomes a producer I am guessing price will be quite a lot higher by the end of the year, slowly moving out of the 'speccie' category.

Nice spiral at present on good trajectory.


----------



## doctorj (17 March 2005)

*Re: AZR Aztec Resources- Little guy going Up?*

AZR is rumoured to make an appearence in the April edition of Shares Mag.  I'm also lead to believe that 'Resource Stocks Magazine' has an article on Aztec in circulation at the moment that touts it as a potential takeover target.


----------



## jhop (18 March 2005)

*Re: AZR Aztec Resources- Little guy going Up?*

So if there is a potential take over, will this see a rise in share price? if so before  or after?


----------



## tech/a (18 March 2005)

*Re: AZR Aztec Resources- Little guy going Up?*

Normally before a deal is done.
and normally only to around the figure offered.

Of co**** after the take over its a little difficult for it to rise as its no longer there!

Rule of thumb is that which is being taken over generally rises and that doing the taking over generally moves up or down to the extent the market percieves the takeover will benefit or hinder the parent co.


----------



## knit 1 pearl 2 (18 March 2005)

*Re: AZR Aztec Resources- Little guy going Up?*

hi guys(and girls)

so is it tooo late?, or is this bussiness about to boom?

enjoy the threads and it's good to have a lot of people doing research i would think of,  

 appreciate any tips

gav


----------



## blackdogsbarking (18 March 2005)

*Re: AZR Aztec Resources- Little guy going Up?*

This little number is another of the Paul "MR NOTHING" Matich & Mik "MANY NAMES" Chemmessian.

The problem is that Kulin is an island and, according to a former employee, leaks like a sieve! 

how are they going to fix the leak?


----------



## RichKid (18 March 2005)

*Re: AZR Aztec Resources- Little guy going Up?*

BDB,
Geez! Thanks for the info but I'm glad the chart was what I was relying on together with Ian Burston's reputation and the fundamentals (ignoring personal history of some management). I can't believe none of the people you mention have tried to sue you for defamation?? Or is it all true?

I'm always interested in different perspectives so keep it coming, provided it has a factual bases and is constructive. Might also be good if you cut and pasted the info rather than putting a link to it as it's only a small blurb. Also see our code of conduct at foot of this page just near the paypal link.


----------



## doctorj (20 March 2005)

*Re: AZR Aztec Resources- Little guy going Up?*

Courtesy of Shares Mag and some chap called Herger.



			
				Share Mag said:
			
		

> BY Tim Treadgold, Tim Treadgold is a Perth-based business journalist who has written for BRW and Shares magazines since they were founded. He studied geology but switched to journalism in 1969 during the Poseidon nickel boom.
> 
> Hard as (high-grade) nails
> 
> ...


----------



## el_ninj0 (20 March 2005)

*Re: AZR Aztec Resources- Little guy going Up?*



			
				doctorj said:
			
		

> Courtesy of Shares Mag and some chap called Herger.




That said. What is everyone elses predictions from this point on?
I think mabey 60-70cps is a bit low for the forecast.


----------



## doctorj (21 March 2005)

*Re: AZR Aztec Resources- Little guy going Up?*

Small steps.  

There's still significant risks between now and production, namely construction of the sea wall and other necessary infrastructure.

I hold, but I don't think its time to get too excited yet.


----------



## el_ninj0 (21 March 2005)

*Re: AZR Aztec Resources- Little guy going Up?*

Seems to be strugling to get past 30 cents today. Its been going between 29.5 and 30 cents all morning.


----------



## RichKid (21 March 2005)

*Re: AZR Aztec Resources- Little guy going Up?*

Thanks for the shares review doc, only AZR was really tipped as being seriously undervalued atm, nice to see the figures, the funnymentals people can do the math. This is bound to be in Shares again in a few months when it's higher so more support as we get to the business end of this year.


----------



## RichKid (31 March 2005)

*Re: AZR Aztec Resources- Little guy going Up?*

A bit concerned about AZR atm, see my last post with a chart (post #212 of this thread), I didn't draw the lower trend support line at that stage (but I should have), it turned out to be a bearish wedge (Started as a channel). The price oozed down and if theory is correct it should go further towards the base of the wedge around 18 to 20c.

But since the fall is probably due to the news not coming as soon as expected (and the recent general market weakness) it should be stable unless there is a real delay in the anncts. I sold part of my holding (a bit too much in hindsight) but will buy again later if need be. Volumes are a bit low. At least I've locked in some profits so it's easier to sleep!


----------



## doctorj (1 April 2005)

*Re: AZR Aztec Resources- Little guy going Up?*

Buying when most of us did, it was always going to a 6-12 month proposition to realise the type of profits that we thought might be possible and achievable for Aztec.  

The BFS should provide more clarity to the direction of AZR in the short term. I too sold a portion to lock in profits and may look to buy some more at the levels its at.  Bottomed out at 22c, which was incredible given how it has traded since mid-feb.  Good to see it have a fairly strong close on Wednesday, rejecting lower prices.

I wouldn't put too much in that trend line of mine, you can place them anywhere in hindsight and it was a 3second job for this post.

That said, I'm still happy to hold and may pick up some more when it resumes its uptrend. The amount I'm holding currently is free-held and I'm happy to almost leave that in the bottom draw.


----------



## RichKid (1 April 2005)

*Re: AZR Aztec Resources- Little guy going Up?*

Just read this about related developments, goes to show that we have to be careful in case the current MOU's don't lead to what we expect. Doc is spot on about all the risk that still has to be overcome before production. Underlines the importance of good trade mgmt. Fortunately AZR has better mgmt (ie more than one showman) than Fortescue.

From the SMH:
http://www.smh.com.au/news/Business/Highlands-Pac-signs-up-China-Metal/2005/03/31/1111862532815.html


> Highlands Pac signs up China Metal
> By Jamie Freed
> April 1, 2005
> 
> ...


----------



## el_ninj0 (1 April 2005)

*Re: AZR Aztec Resources- Little guy going Up?*



			
				RichKid said:
			
		

> Just read this about related developments, goes to show that we have to be careful in case the current MOU's don't lead to what we expect. Doc is spot on about all the risk that still has to be overcome before production. Underlines the importance of good trade mgmt. Fortunately AZR has better mgmt (ie more than one showman) than Fortescue.
> 
> From the SMH:
> http://www.smh.com.au/news/Business/Highlands-Pac-signs-up-China-Metal/2005/03/31/1111862532815.html




Richkid, When should be expect to see some results from AZR?


----------



## RichKid (1 April 2005)

*Re: AZR Aztec Resources- Little guy going Up?*



			
				el_ninj0 said:
			
		

> Richkid, When should be expect to see some results from AZR?




Wish I knew mate, only clue in the past was increased (ie very high) volume before an annct but that's gone down the drain with the crowd jumping into iron ore. I'd expect it in April, but whether that is the resource upgrade or the BFS (less likely) or the results of the price negotiations or all at once is another question. 

The market will be looking to see if the construction costs are higher than expected (there are shortages of men and equipment out there). The Shares mag article extracted by Doc J recently was the most detailed for figures that I've seen. It's not unusual for AZR to trade well below where it should be (eg fair value) so this may dip if it breaks that very important trend support line.


----------



## el_ninj0 (1 April 2005)

*Re: AZR Aztec Resources- Little guy going Up?*



			
				RichKid said:
			
		

> Wish I knew mate, only clue in the past was increased (ie very high) volume before an annct but that's gone down the drain with the crowd jumping into iron ore. I'd expect it in April, but whether that is the resource upgrade or the BFS (less likely) or the results of the price negotiations or all at once is another question.
> 
> The market will be looking to see if the construction costs are higher than expected (there are shortages of men and equipment out there). The Shares mag article extracted by Doc J recently was the most detailed for figures that I've seen. It's not unusual for AZR to trade well below where it should be (eg fair value) so this may dip if it breaks that very important trend support line.




Could you give me a chart with some lines on it to mark out the trend support line? Please?,


----------



## RichKid (2 April 2005)

*Re: AZR Aztec Resources- Little guy going Up?*



			
				el_ninj0 said:
			
		

> Could you give me a chart with some lines on it to mark out the trend support line? Please?,




Hi EN,
It's the one drawn on Doc's chart a few posts ago, have a look, it's clearly marked. My old one is also there on the previous page of this thread. I'll post a new one if anything significant happens. No new lines to draw till then.


----------



## doctorj (2 April 2005)

*Re: AZR Aztec Resources- Little guy going Up?*

I'd expect the resource upgrade to be released as part of the BFS.

As Richkid pointed out, the BFS is due out by the end of April.  Part of the BFS is a detailed estimation of the predicted costs, outputs and hence cashflows and profits. At this point, the market will rerate AZR on the basis of their discounted cashflows as well as a discount for the risk in the lead up to production - such as sea wall and sales.

Richkid makes a good point.  I suggest that the risk discount will now be higher given Twiggy's debacle.  An upgrade to 3mtpa or more (as per the rumour I passed on a little while ago), makes AZR's current share price look quite lucrative.  I have some simple numbers here, but I'll hold them aside as making predictions of earnings per share on such broad estimations are dangerous and the BFS is just around the corner anyway.

I wouldn't expect FMG's disaster to be replicated in AZR.  Indications are that management is very astute, experienced and above all prefers to understate rather than hype a project's potential.


----------



## The Barbarian Investor (2 April 2005)

*Re: AZR Aztec Resources- Little guy going Up?*

my stop lossfor ZFX kicked in the other day, but was a great opportunity to pick up MGX and AZR..put some green into my folio


----------



## el_ninj0 (2 April 2005)

*Re: AZR Aztec Resources- Little guy going Up?*



			
				The Barbarian Investor said:
			
		

> my stop lossfor ZFX kicked in the other day, but was a great opportunity to pick up MGX and AZR..put some green into my folio




Would have been a great opertunity to pickup AZR and especially MGX. Wish I had done the same, or not bought in at 81 cents for MGX. If i had waited a day I could have got myself another 3000 in MGX. Sorry. Wrong thread....,


----------



## RichKid (6 April 2005)

*Re: AZR Aztec Resources- Little guy going Up?*

This may be a wave like retracement as the speculators tire of waiting for the annct. Might be some buying opportunities soon.

Hey Croc! 
Haven't seen you for awhile... still following AZR? Any news or info?


----------



## doctorj (6 April 2005)

*Re: AZR Aztec Resources- Little guy going Up?*

I'd wonder why they are getting tired of waiting since its been public knowledge that the BFS was due this month for a while now.


----------



## el_ninj0 (6 April 2005)

*Re: AZR Aztec Resources- Little guy going Up?*



			
				doctorj said:
			
		

> I'd wonder why they are getting tired of waiting since its been public knowledge that the BFS was due this month for a while now.




Sorry, but what is a BSF?


----------



## doctorj (6 April 2005)

*Re: AZR Aztec Resources- Little guy going Up?*

The Bankable Feasibility Study (BFS) defines the mining project.  It's carried out by an Independant Consultant and deals with everything from the mining plan from the time they first get something out of the ground until they want to close the mine down, including permits, infrastruture and environmental concerns.

The idea is that its done by an independant in sufficient detail that a bank can decide whether or not to provide financing for the project, so it includes things like projected costs, revenues and hence profit and cash flow.

AZR has been completing a series of drills as part of its BFS with the aim of increasing production from 2MTPa to 3MTPa or more.  This is significant as it  has the potential to drastically change AZR's valuation.  The BFS is also significant as its seen by the market as the next stepping down of risk before production is scheduled to begin.


----------



## el_ninj0 (6 April 2005)

*Re: AZR Aztec Resources- Little guy going Up?*



			
				doctorj said:
			
		

> AZR has been completing a series of drills as part of its BFS with the aim of increasing production from 2MTPa to 3MTPa or more.  This is significant as it  has the potential to drastically change AZR's valuation.  The BFS is also significant as its seen by the market as the next stepping down of risk before production is scheduled to begin.




Thanks doc. Has anyone seen anything of this BSF?, or heard anything about its prospect for feasability?

I assume that it is since its been going on for some time now. However I am untrained in this aspect and dont know what im talking about.


----------



## crocdee (6 April 2005)

*Re: AZR Aztec Resources- Little guy going Up?*

hi rich
yep still following.
don't hold atm unfortunately got a few bob on mul and playing a waiting game which is really not doing me much good atm.
also hold plenty mml & mmlo which i have a lot of faith in[been in from day one and well in front] plenty more to come from this one and not too far away.
actually looking at getting back into cue which i believe have a big future with santos and the Oyong field which has to be getting closer to coming on stream as a producer especially now oil prices are going through the roof.

as you know haven't had much in put for awhile just sitting on the side.
great to say hello again.
regards croc


----------



## RichKid (7 April 2005)

*Re: AZR Aztec Resources- Little guy going Up?*



			
				crocdee said:
			
		

> hi rich
> yep still following.
> don't hold atm unfortunately got a few bob on mul and playing a waiting game which is really not doing me much good atm.
> also hold plenty mml & mmlo which i have a lot of faith in[been in from day one and well in front] plenty more to come from this one and not too far away.
> ...




Hi Croc,
Nice to hear from you again. Glad to see some of your cash cows are doing well!! It'll be good to have you back when you have more time, some of these metal stocks should start going again.
Hope you manage to get out of MUL at some stage, it's tough but you'll be happy once you do.
It's probably the right time to be on the sidelines, this market is a bit jittery atm, even for the smaller stocks.
I'll be hoping to get in on CUE too but it's probably going to just range or fall lower imo as Jeruk may stay quiet for a couple more months but it's hard to tell. I might buy in if it falls to the mid teens, no near support though so it's risky for me. 

Anyway, have fun and keep in touch!


----------



## RichKid (14 April 2005)

*Re: AZR Aztec Resources- Little guy going Up?*

Well, big boy BHP has been strongarmed by the Chinese- no extra price hike for being an Aussie!! But maybe next year when they use their brains and team up with RIO. So doesn't bode as well for AZR price negotiations, kinda getting a bit annoying waiting for the annct. Sp appears to be looking for a level to settle at, volumes have just drowned!


----------



## The Barbarian Investor (15 April 2005)

*Re: AZR Aztec Resources- Little guy going Up?*

They got a price rise..just not what they (read we) wanted..  

AZR still positive on my folio though i'm glad to say, MGX has dipped though


----------



## RichKid (22 April 2005)

*Re: AZR Aztec Resources- Little guy going Up?*

AZR appears to be heading lower imo, won't be surprised to see a quick dump one day, the trend is definitely down in the short term. That bfs is taking its time. All the iron ore stocks are taking a breather, general market downturn is not helping either, people are jittery.


----------



## doctorj (26 April 2005)

*Re: AZR Aztec Resources- Little guy going Up?*

A good day for AZR today with plenty of volume, closing 1c up at 25.5 on the back of more than 5,000,000 shares traded.  VWAP at 25.74c

The BFS is due out in April, which means some time this week.  This may explain today's buying.  Lets hope Ian and the crew enjoy meeting their deadlines and can get it out to us before COB Friday.

Champagne this Friday night for all holders hopefully.


----------



## RichKid (26 April 2005)

*Re: AZR Aztec Resources- Little guy going Up?*



			
				doctorj said:
			
		

> A good day for AZR today with plenty of volume, closing 1c up at 25.5 on the back of more than 5,000,000 shares traded.  VWAP at 25.74c
> 
> The BFS is due out in April, which means some time this week.  This may explain today's buying.  Lets hope Ian and the crew enjoy meeting their deadlines and can get it out to us before COB Friday.
> 
> Champagne this Friday night for all holders hopefully.




Nice chart doc, did they actually commit themselves to an April deadline? I thought it was sometime this quarter but could be wrong. Nice to see the volume. Been quiet for awhile by AZR's standards. I expect the retracement to continue lower but hopefully will be wrong.


----------



## doctorj (26 April 2005)

*Re: AZR Aztec Resources- Little guy going Up?*

I will see if I can find the documents that have lead me to believe they committed to April and get back to you.


----------



## RichKid (26 April 2005)

*Re: AZR Aztec Resources- Little guy going Up?*



			
				doctorj said:
			
		

> I will see if I can find the documents that have lead me to believe they committed to April and get back to you.




Thanks doc, I'm too lazy or I would have done it. I think I did do it last month but didn't note the source. Would have been a recent annct. If they said it was April and they delay it'll drop real quick. The other issue is general market risk- it's affecting the money flow to speccies too so the Allords will have some effect.


----------



## doctorj (26 April 2005)

*Re: AZR Aztec Resources- Little guy going Up?*

I've seen it noted in several places, but you can view it in the Second Quarter Activities Report released on 24/01/2005.

Within the report it states, "Bankable feasibility study well advanced for completion in April 2005."


----------



## RichKid (26 April 2005)

*Re: AZR Aztec Resources- Little guy going Up?*



			
				doctorj said:
			
		

> I've seen it noted in several places, but you can view it in the Second Quarter Activities Report released on 24/01/2005.
> 
> Within the report it states, "Bankable feasibility study well advanced for completion in April 2005."




Thanks doc, I haven't been too concerned because I'm primarily following the chart atm, but it does help to be prepared. 3 days to go!! Will get very exciting for some! A lot of work to be done between now and shipment of ore so it's got to come together smoothly. 10m is a notable mark for volume.


----------



## doctorj (27 April 2005)

*Re: AZR Aztec Resources- Little guy going Up?*

Latest news from AZR about the BFS is that there have been delays in receiving some quotes.  They expect the BFS to be complete early May now.

Also, for those that have noticed their website being broken, that's because they're upgrading the old one.  An interim one should be available again at the old URL before the end of the week.

Oddly enough, someone by the name Jess Gush responded to the email query from the address Jess.Gush@foxresources.com.au.  She indicated her position was executive assistant, but I wonder just how closely these companies are interwined.


----------



## RichKid (27 April 2005)

*Re: AZR Aztec Resources- Little guy going Up?*



			
				doctorj said:
			
		

> Latest news from AZR about the BFS is that there have been delays in receiving some quotes.  They expect the BFS to be complete early May now.
> 
> Also, for those that have noticed their website being broken, that's because they're upgrading the old one.  An interim one should be available again at the old URL before the end of the week.
> 
> Oddly enough, someone by the name Jess Gush responded to the email query from the address Jess.Gush@foxresources.com.au.  She indicated her position was executive assistant, but I wonder just how closely these companies are interwined.




The report released today said BFS to be released April and other financial modelling in May from what I recall, they only released it after market closed.
Brett Matich is with FXR and AZR, maybe they use the same secretarial staff and other staff?? Everyone knows everyone else in this industry, especially if it all happens out West.

A lot of sell orders now since most people now know what to expect. The speculators are cashing out.


----------



## el_ninj0 (28 April 2005)

*Re: AZR Aztec Resources- Little guy going Up?*



			
				RichKid said:
			
		

> A lot of sell orders now since most people now know what to expect. The speculators are cashing out.




I cant see alot of people cashing out from the comsec market depth. Looks like its around even at the moment, possibly going a little higher.

Im in it for the long haul, but I think its looking good short term aswell. We have had a drop enough to make it level out at a reansonable price again, and there seems to be renewed interest in the stock lately if volume is any indication. I'd expect to see it go up atleast a little today, as the report from yesterday was fairly strong, even if they dont have alot of cash left in the bank.


----------



## RichKid (28 April 2005)

*Re: AZR Aztec Resources- Little guy going Up?*



			
				el_ninj0 said:
			
		

> I cant see alot of people cashing out from the comsec market depth. Looks like its around even at the moment, possibly going a little higher.
> 
> Im in it for the long haul, but I think its looking good short term aswell. We have had a drop enough to make it level out at a reansonable price again, and there seems to be renewed interest in the stock lately if volume is any indication. I'd expect to see it go up atleast a little today, as the report from yesterday was fairly strong, even if they dont have alot of cash left in the bank.




EN,
About the depth, when I checked the gap(spread) between the aggregate of the first two levels on either side  it spread was a bit higher than it is atm, I thought it was worth noting as the spread depth (is that the term?) was abit narrower over recent days, on average. Now back to about 400k. The nearest bid/offer is close but the next level will show the full picture. Nice to see a little jump up. 
Buy: 200k at 25.5c and 485k at 25 (total about 700k)
Sell: 164k at 26c, 900k at 26.5 (total about 1.1m)

Keeps changing though.

 I'm still expecting some softening in the sp, I'll check my chart again on the weekend. If this resources 'correction' ends soon AZR will be back up again as before. Let's hope some disgruntled Fortescue Metals sh's comeover to AZR, at least the anncts here are far more reliable!

As for cash in the bank it's those agreements about iron ore price etc that'll seal it, unless I've missed something they are still to release the details, I'd assume it requires the May financial reports to be completed first. Plenty of backers with cash for this one.


----------



## el_ninj0 (29 April 2005)

*Re: AZR Aztec Resources- Little guy going Up?*

Depending on overseas markets of course, i would be suprised if AZR didn't pickup atleast another cent on its sp today. It seems like it had a bit of a rise yesterday morning, like most other resource stocks did. However, it held a bit more than the rest, so i think i'd tip it to go a little higher today.

RichKid, how long do you think this correction in the resources sector will go on for? guesstimate.


----------



## RichKid (29 April 2005)

*Re: AZR Aztec Resources- Little guy going Up?*



			
				el_ninj0 said:
			
		

> RichKid, how long do you think this correction in the resources sector will go on for? guesstimate.




EN,
Not sure! each sector may recover at different times (Eg oil, gold, diversified). I'm giving it all till June/July to recover fully but things are so wild anything could happen. Still think the resources cycle has a way to go. Just that overvalued companies are taking big hits. 
AZR is certainly not overvalued imo. It's the crucial iron ore price negotiations that have to come good now.


----------



## el_ninj0 (29 April 2005)

*Re: AZR Aztec Resources- Little guy going Up?*



			
				RichKid said:
			
		

> EN,
> Not sure! each sector may recover at different times (Eg oil, gold, diversified). I'm giving it all till June/July to recover fully but things are so wild anything could happen. Still think the resources cycle has a way to go. Just that overvalued companies are taking big hits.
> AZR is certainly not overvalued imo. It's the crucial iron ore price negotiations that have to come good now.




I personally think that resources has a long long way to go up. The demand is nothing now compared to what it will be in 5-10 years. MGX and AZR start big production in the next 2 years, and the price of iron ore will have definitely gone up again by then. Even though i beleive MGX has already secured a price for their produce?.

AZR will be the big up and comer though, it still has a long way to go up, as long as management can keep it on track.

Im looking more long term with resources at the moment, the boom of november-february has gone, but slow and steady gains over the next 2 years im thinking.


----------



## el_ninj0 (5 May 2005)

*Re: AZR Aztec Resources- Little guy going Up?*

WOW!
What the hell happend to this today? 54 million shares traded today. Thats a bit above normal when there hasn't even been an announcment. Mabey there is some news on this company that the asx hasn't posted yet?


----------



## RichKid (5 May 2005)

*Re: AZR Aztec Resources- Little guy going Up?*



			
				el_ninj0 said:
			
		

> WOW!
> What the hell happend to this today? 54 million shares traded today. Thats a bit above normal when there hasn't even been an announcment. Mabey there is some news on this company that the asx hasn't posted yet?




Yep, big deal alright, highest ever volume by far for AZR. But it was due to one trade at 23.5c of just over 50 million, occurred at about 4.30pm and was tagged portfolio special crossing, off market trade. Someone else may have to explain what it all means as it may not be as significant as we think. Doc, are you aware of what that big trade means?? 

There were some unusually big trades apart from that very large trade too, wonder if someone is trying to stock up on AZR prior to the crucial details of the bsf and ore pricing, wont be surprised if a bigger player wants to gobble AZR up before it becomes expensive?? This market 'correction' would give cheap entry to a lot of cashed up foreigners and local bluechips. Any rumours or news out West doc?


----------



## el_ninj0 (5 May 2005)

*Re: AZR Aztec Resources- Little guy going Up?*

Could it mabey mean that a big player decided to drop out, or a big player got in? 50,000,000 is alot of shares, even by substantial share holder standards. They'd have to be one huge player to even be able to sell that many, let alone find buyers for it. Seems like something unusual has happend to me.

el_ninj0 puts on sherlock holmes hat...


----------



## doctorj (6 May 2005)

*Re: AZR Aztec Resources- Little guy going Up?*

It's one of those things that may be significant or may not be, only time will or can tell.

I'm led to believe that the volume was a result of CSFB doing some crossing at 3:38:10 today in a atleast half a dozen different stocks including AZR and CMR.  AZR was by far the biggest on volume.

I don't know who from or who to.  I would expect some more info being made available to market on who bought them early next week.  Either way, finding a buyer or a syndicate of buyers for that volume at the price it went through is significant for those that are currently holding.  As long as the DOW doesnt do to badly tonight, tomorrow should provide a better indication of the direction this is heading.  In the mean time, I've fired off a few emails to see if I can't find out what the go is.


----------



## RichKid (6 May 2005)

*Re: AZR Aztec Resources- Little guy going Up?*



			
				doctorj said:
			
		

> It's one of those things that may be significant or may not be, only time will or can tell.
> 
> I'm led to believe that the volume was a result of CSFB doing some crossing at 3:38:10 today in a atleast half a dozen different stocks including AZR and CMR.  AZR was by far the biggest on volume.
> 
> I don't know who from or who to.  I would expect some more info being made available to market on who bought them early next week.  Either way, finding a buyer or a syndicate of buyers for that volume at the price it went through is significant for those that are currently holding.  As long as the DOW doesnt do to badly tonight, tomorrow should provide a better indication of the direction this is heading.  In the mean time, I've fired off a few emails to see if I can't find out what the go is.




It's a shame these things aren't disclosed promptly, I'd liked to see the annct of the transaction today. It comes to just under $12m for the 50k, and I got the time wrong (not that it matters much), as doc said it was around 3.38pm not 4.30.

Let's see how doc's emails go. BTW, have a look at this week's Bulletin for an article on the blow out in labour and equipment costs in WA, I've heard of a few mechanics waltzing over to the mines to earn upto 110k. Let's see if AZR can get a good deal on its construction contracts as they are in one of the busiest regions. So many things to sort out in the next two months that'll tell us a lot about near term profitablility levels (and hence the sp), glad there is still more upside potential through the continuing drilling as well.


----------



## el_ninj0 (6 May 2005)

*Re: AZR Aztec Resources- Little guy going Up?*



			
				RichKid said:
			
		

> It's a shame these things aren't disclosed promptly, I'd liked to see the annct of the transaction today. It comes to just under $12m for the 50k, and I got the time wrong (not that it matters much), as doc said it was around 3.38pm not 4.30.
> 
> Let's see how doc's emails go. BTW, have a look at this week's Bulletin for an article on the blow out in labour and equipment costs in WA, I've heard of a few mechanics waltzing over to the mines to earn upto 110k. Let's see if AZR can get a good deal on its construction contracts as they are in one of the busiest regions. So many things to sort out in the next two months that'll tell us a lot about near term profitablility levels (and hence the sp), glad there is still more upside potential through the continuing drilling as well.




It'll be interesting to see what happens today with the US market slightly down over night. In pre trading it looks as if AZR will jump a little higher, but you never can be sure.


----------



## doctorj (12 May 2005)

*Re: AZR Aztec Resources- Little guy going Up?*

Apologies for not updating this sooner.

I had the opportunity to catch up with a few people over the weekend and while few could offer any consistency in the reasons behind the crossing, all confirmed that stock was crossed at the previously mentioned time by CSFB.  Even the most outrageous of conspiracy theories behind the cross wasn't very much to get excited about from a traders perspective.

One thing I was happy about is that no one I had spoken to had wound back their position in AZR despite being quite active on the sell side of their portfolios recently.  If anything, this is a reflection of their satisfaction with AZR management rather than their opinion of any further upside.  Their opinion is the latter will be a product of the former.

Good luck to those that hold.  On a small note, in my book "early may" ends at the end of May 15.  To get the BFS out to market by early may means tomorrow.  Lets hope they either come out with the goods or make an announcement to let the market know why.


----------



## RichKid (12 May 2005)

*Re: AZR Aztec Resources- Little guy going Up?*



			
				doctorj said:
			
		

> Apologies for not updating this sooner.
> 
> I had the opportunity to catch up with a few people over the weekend and while few could offer any consistency in the reasons behind the crossing, all confirmed that stock was crossed at the previously mentioned time by CSFB.  Even the most outrageous of conspiracy theories behind the cross wasn't very much to get excited about from a traders perspective.
> 
> ...




No probs doc, saw the anncts re Fidelity too, that's a nice stake they're building up eh? Get ready for a quick dip below 20c if they prolong this, just my view, you'll see from the past that it often goes sideways for awhile, I'm just not sure if it'll be in the low 20's or below. Certainly not overvalued atm in my view but then again they haven't produced anything either.


----------



## doctorj (16 May 2005)

*Re: AZR Aztec Resources- Little guy going Up?*

Good call on the dip below 20 Richkid.  Lets see if you were on the money for the time it spends there. For those waiting on the wings for an entry, probably better off waiting a little longer to see where its going.  Certainly not for the faint of heart at the moment.

How low it will go will depend on the length of the delay and market speculation on the reasons behind the delay.  If it has been delays in quotes from contractors then perhaps the sell down is unwarrented, but there's nothing to say a cost blow out is out of the question.

I continue to hold, it's still on the sunny side of my stop.  I haven't locked in any profits this time around.


----------



## doctorj (18 May 2005)

*Re: AZR Aztec Resources- Little guy going Up?*



> Cambrian Mining Boosts Aztec Stake To 18.7% In Share Swap
> Reference: http://sg.biz.yahoo.com/050517/15/3skxa.html
> 
> Edited Press Release
> ...




Atleast we can explain the volume now.  Interesting that they cite 4MTPa as the goal on the BFS.  They originally produced MOU's for 2MTPa, the BFS progress report then said they had 2.4MTPa planned (figure from memory, possibly wrong).  All along they were hoping to get a 3MTPa resource, if they end up with a 4MTPa resource my memory would indicate that there is significant upside to their current share price.  A massive IF, especially given the uncertainty created by mining being set back and now the BFS having to borrow a time machine to make it out by "early may".  

Anyone care to run the numbers?


----------



## tech/a (19 May 2005)

*Re: AZR Aztec Resources- Little guy going Up?*

Doc.

This stock has given up over 50% from its highs.
Its seeming a lot like the holding some are doing with MUL.
Trading the "Hope Indicator".
What I'd like to know--with so many opportunities to bail out ---as there are technical signals after technical signals shouting Sell Sell Sell----why do people hold in there when simply taking the signal and waiting for a retracement (Like it has) and then trading any further break to the upside.

It seems when a stock begins to fall and in this case heavily all of a sudden all this Fundamental stuff is offered up as WHY it SHOULDNT be falling!

Fact is it is!

Not meant as a personal attack more an observation on this and other threads where stocks turn south and traders "Hang in there"----Why?

There is something lacking and Im guessing its a plan.


----------



## doctorj (19 May 2005)

*Re: AZR Aztec Resources- Little guy going Up?*

Tech/A, fair comments.

I've offered much of the previous information as a function of interest, my understanding is there is still a number of people here that hold AZR.  I'd definately not be telling people to hold or hang in there - particularly if they are technical traders where a stop has been triggered.

Much like your discretionary trades, I still have a holding of AZR for reasons other than technical.  Sure, the idea of selling out at 30 and buying back in around now sounds fantastic, but its not part of the game plan right now.


----------



## el_ninj0 (24 May 2005)

*Re: AZR Aztec Resources- Little guy going Up?*

Big investment from Cambrian Mining PLC today. 91,600,000 securities are now in there ownership, 18% stock holding.


----------



## doctorj (26 May 2005)

*Re: AZR Aztec Resources- Little guy going Up?*

Confirmation released to market today that the BFS is now expected late June and has been delayed due to a remodelling of the project to 9years@4mtpa with more drilling ongoing.


----------



## red (26 May 2005)

*Re: AZR Aztec Resources- Little guy going Up?*

interesting article www.minesite.com minews may 20


----------



## RichKid (26 May 2005)

*Re: AZR Aztec Resources- Little guy going Up?*



			
				red said:
			
		

> interesting article www.minesite.com minews may 20




Thanks Red, thought it was worth extracting as it adds a perspective (speculative) rather than just reporting old news, note the recent release of the bfs annct date- late June to early July imo.



> Minews Story
> Date: May 20, 2005
> 
> Cambrian Tops Up Shareholding in Aztec Resources Ahead Of 2006 Production.
> ...


----------



## doctorj (26 May 2005)

*Re: AZR Aztec Resources- Little guy going Up?*

Do you have an opinion on AZR RKid?


----------



## el_ninj0 (7 June 2005)

*Re: AZR Aztec Resources- Little guy going Up?*



			
				doctorj said:
			
		

> Do you have an opinion on AZR RKid?




I'd also like to know your opinion on this stock richkid, also tech/a mabey if your willing?

Thanks guys.


----------



## RichKid (8 June 2005)

*Re: AZR Aztec Resources- Little guy going Up?*



			
				doctorj said:
			
		

> Do you have an opinion on AZR RKid?




Apologies for the delay in responding folks, just read the post. My view hasn't changed since my posts last month, also see the June stock comp entry thread (AZR is my comp pick). Basically looks like some support around 19c. It's done this before, see last year's head and shoulders pattern. Could go lower, I expect a rise into the end of the month. Just my views, have been wrong on AZR before.


----------



## doctorj (20 June 2005)

*Re: AZR Aztec Resources- Little guy going Up?*

A brief update for anyone waiting in the wings with popcorn watching this soap opera.

The West Australian ran an article today which included comments from Ian and repeated the end-of-month deadline for the BFS.  At the risk of poorly paraphrasing the report, he said that Koolan was a great 'company starter' not necessarily a 'company maker'.  He also said the BFS had a 95% probability to be very good for the company and shareholders.  He's commited to meeting targets for first sale for July next year and has said that initial production will be met from the Satellite deposits.  It will take 3 years before the main pit is bought online to full capacity (due to the draining etc that is required) for a resulting output of 4mtpa.

Also, I saw this from Huntleys.



> $150m or $0.29 per share NPV is based on the production of 41Mt of iron ore at 4Mtpa over an 11-year life. Assumptions include a 10% discount rate, a long term iron ore fines price of US37c per dry metric tonne unit (dmtu), a lump price of US45.9c per dmtu, an exchange rate of A$1 = US$0.72 and a 30:70 lump/fines split. This equates roughly to A$35/t of ore compared to AZR's prefeasibility assumption of A$30/t for 100% fines. Capital costs for the expanded 4Mtpa case are estimated at $110m, almost double the $60m PFS estimate for the 2Mtpa case. We have increased operating costs by 5% to A$21/t, reflecting higher input costs; read oil, labour and materials; partially offset by economies of scale.
> 
> Long term EBITDA and NPAT are forecast at $55.0m and $29.9m respectively. Prospective diluted earnings per share and dividends of 6.1c and 3.0c per year could support a doubling of the share price within two years based on peer multiples.


----------



## RichKid (20 June 2005)

*Re: AZR Aztec Resources- Little guy going Up?*



			
				doctorj said:
			
		

> A brief update for anyone waiting in the wings with popcorn watching this soap opera.
> 
> The West Australian ran an article today which included comments from Ian and repeated the end-of-month deadline for the BFS.  At the risk of poorly paraphrasing the report, he said that Koolan was a great 'company starter' not necessarily a 'company maker'.  He also said the BFS had a 95% probability to be very good for the company and shareholders.  He's commited to meeting targets for first sale for July next year and has said that initial production will be met from the Satellite deposits.  It will take 3 years before the main pit is bought online to full capacity (due to the draining etc that is required) for a resulting output of 4mtpa.
> 
> Also, I saw this from Huntleys.




Thanks very much for that Doc, draining the pit fast seems to be a big ask. Let's hope the input costs don't go up. Burston's reputation will be at stake if he gives it a 95% chance but it augers well. Dividends would be nice but it's far off.

Noticed that volumes are still low but the sideways pattern has got a bit stronger. I'm expecting higher moves in the next week and then the fireworks the week after- should be some daytraders jumping in. Also noted that the dodgy Bulletin speculator column was tipping entry into AZR at 19c two weeks ago.

Time for a pop corn top up before the action starts...


----------



## el_ninj0 (20 June 2005)

*Re: AZR Aztec Resources- Little guy going Up?*



			
				RichKid said:
			
		

> Thanks very much for that Doc, draining the pit fast seems to be a big ask. Let's hope the input costs don't go up. Burston's reputation will be at stake if he gives it a 95% chance but it augers well. Dividends would be nice but it's far off.
> 
> Noticed that volumes are still low but the sideways pattern has got a bit stronger. I'm expecting higher moves in the next week and then the fireworks the week after- should be some daytraders jumping in. Also noted that the dodgy Bulletin speculator column was tipping entry into AZR at 19c two weeks ago.
> 
> Time for a pop corn top up before the action starts...




Whats happening the week after richkid?, something significant i hope?


----------



## RichKid (20 June 2005)

*Re: AZR Aztec Resources- Little guy going Up?*



			
				el_ninj0 said:
			
		

> Whats happening the week after richkid?, something significant i hope?




Please see my earlier posts and doc's latest, I was referring to the release of the bfs, prices normally shoot up for AZR before anncts, that's all. Nothign is guaranteed but people have been waiting for it for awhile.


----------



## el_ninj0 (20 June 2005)

*Re: AZR Aztec Resources- Little guy going Up?*



			
				RichKid said:
			
		

> Please see my earlier posts and doc's latest, I was referring to the release of the bfs, prices normally shoot up for AZR before anncts, that's all. Nothign is guaranteed but people have been waiting for it for awhile.




Ok, so the bfs is coming up. What is the anticipated result? From anyone at all im talking about. Has the director hinted at all to the possibility of it being extremely good or not so great...? Thanks


----------



## doctorj (20 June 2005)

*Re: AZR Aztec Resources- Little guy going Up?*

In terms of support, AZR has been well supported by some of the larger Perth based brokers.

Time can only tell.  IB's comment that it's not a company maker, but a company starter is a positive for me.  While they've had to be flexible as a result of increased costs, they're looking for this to be a company starter.  If AZR can become more than a 1 mine company, then that's a positive.

Depends on your time frame.


----------



## el_ninj0 (20 June 2005)

*Re: AZR Aztec Resources- Little guy going Up?*



			
				doctorj said:
			
		

> In terms of support, AZR has been well supported by some of the larger Perth based brokers.
> 
> Time can only tell.  IB's comment that it's not a company maker, but a company starter is a positive for me.  While they've had to be flexible as a result of increased costs, they're looking for this to be a company starter.  If AZR can become more than a 1 mine company, then that's a positive.
> 
> Depends on your time frame.




I am in it for the long hawl, as I think they are in a great position currently, I cant say I know alot about their financial situation, but there actual situation in terms of how they are with their mine(s) is good, not great, but good enough to get them started.

I look at AZR in much the same way as I have looked at MGX, except as a less mature company. At some stage or another, they are going to be extremely profitable, just when that is, only time will tell.


----------



## RichKid (20 June 2005)

*Re: AZR Aztec Resources- Little guy going Up?*



			
				doctorj said:
			
		

> If AZR can become more than a 1 mine company, then that's a positive.
> 
> Depends on your time frame.




I think you can count out their Uranium interests as it's not up to standard from what I've heard (something about 'grade' being too poor, that type of grade or quantity is very common).
THe tantulum is a possibility though in a few years and maybe more deals to get iron ore exploration going in WA.


----------



## doctorj (21 June 2005)

*Re: AZR Aztec Resources- Little guy going Up?*

I'd be quite happy if their core competency became finding old mines that have been prematurely closed and revamping them.

Most of their uranium assets are in WA.  It doesn't matter how fantastic the ore body is if they're not allowed to dig it up.  See SMM.  By all accounts several good deposits around Mt Isa, but they can't do anything about it.


----------



## RichKid (21 June 2005)

*Re: AZR Aztec Resources- Little guy going Up?*



			
				doctorj said:
			
		

> I'd be quite happy if their core competency became finding old mines that have been prematurely closed and revamping them.
> 
> Most of their uranium assets are in WA.  It doesn't matter how fantastic the ore body is if they're not allowed to dig it up.  See SMM.  By all accounts several good deposits around Mt Isa, but they can't do anything about it.




Funny thing is that even a rumour can ignite little co's like AZR so be ready to sell on a mad up day, govt's may change policy on Uranium.


----------



## el_ninj0 (21 June 2005)

*Re: AZR Aztec Resources- Little guy going Up?*



			
				RichKid said:
			
		

> Funny thing is that even a rumour can ignite little co's like AZR so be ready to sell on a mad up day, govt's may change policy on Uranium.




On the uranium note, I think its important to note that uranium is not a long term solution, and therefore government are less enthusiastic about it than indicated by the media. Nuclear power generation is extremely expensive for companies in the short and long term and is already heavily subsidised in countries where nuclear power is in use.

Dont quote me on this, but the worlds entire uranium resources that we know of to date would only power us for the next 100 years at best.


----------



## el_ninj0 (22 June 2005)

*Re: AZR Aztec Resources- Little guy going Up?*

Whats goin on here?, thats the biggest one day gain for AZR since april. Yet no announcement was made?, am I out of the loop or something?, do announcements get announced elsewhere before the ASX gets them??

Also, if there wasn't an announcement, was is the reason for the gain?


----------



## RichKid (22 June 2005)

*Re: AZR Aztec Resources- Little guy going Up?*



			
				el_ninj0 said:
			
		

> Whats goin on here?, thats the biggest one day gain for AZR since april. Yet no announcement was made?, am I out of the loop or something?, do announcements get announced elsewhere before the ASX gets them??
> 
> Also, if there wasn't an announcement, was is the reason for the gain?




As BlackDogsBarking say 'Koolan Island leaks like a sieve', so insiders know something and may have bought or it's something else. Maybe more exploration results? Who knows. Nice big day though.


----------



## el_ninj0 (22 June 2005)

*Re: AZR Aztec Resources- Little guy going Up?*



			
				RichKid said:
			
		

> As BlackDogsBarking say 'Koolan Island leaks like a sieve', so insiders know something and may have bought or it's something else. Maybe more exploration results? Who knows. Nice big day though.




Isn't it illegal to leak information?


----------



## doctorj (22 June 2005)

*Re: AZR Aztec Resources- Little guy going Up?*

People need to realise the Perth business community is very small.

Many people know the contents of announcements sometimes several days in advance.  They do trade it.

I would expect that a portion, or all of the BFS has been leaked or an announcement is due in the next few days.


----------



## el_ninj0 (22 June 2005)

*Re: AZR Aztec Resources- Little guy going Up?*



			
				doctorj said:
			
		

> People need to realise the Perth business community is very small.
> 
> Many people know the contents of announcements sometimes several days in advance.  They do trade it.
> 
> I would expect that a portion, or all of the BFS has been leaked or an announcement is due in the next few days.




And because of the rise in the share price, the announcement is likely to be seen as positive by other buyers/sellers?

That being said, my previous question was "isn't it illegal to leak information?"


----------



## RichKid (28 June 2005)

*Re: AZR Aztec Resources- Little guy going Up?*

Looks like a break in the downtrend is confirmed or about to be. Double bottom at 19c intact. Vol dropping. Question is will this rise into the annct and then fall back? (buy the rumour, sell the fact?). Anymore rumours from our well-connected Doc in WA? I reckon following the chart is a safer play as you never know how insiders may manipulate the info.


----------



## doctorj (30 June 2005)

*Re: AZR Aztec Resources- Little guy going Up?*

As reported today in the Fin Review, Redport has purchased AZR's royalty over PDN's Langer Heinrich project in exchange for an issue of 5.5million Redport shares (closed yesterday at 5.1c) and the right to first right of refusal to buy possible iron ore, manganese and chrome resources at redport's other tenements.

Redport will earn 12c per kg of U3O8 sold from LH - expected to be worth between $1.5-3.8million over the predicted 11 year life of the mine.  Redport purchased the royalty with the goal of earning long term cash flow.

From AZR's perspective, they get to divest themselves of something that wasn't going to be material to their expected cashflows and give them potential access to some of Redport's tenements all the while maintaining leverage to uranium through Redport's other projects.

Also, I would expect the BFS to come out tomorrow with some luck.  I look forward to finally being able to get a better idea of what Koolan is worth.


----------



## RichKid (30 June 2005)

*Re: AZR Aztec Resources- Little guy going Up?*



			
				doctorj said:
			
		

> As reported today in the Fin Review, Redport has purchased AZR's royalty over PDN's Langer Heinrich project in exchange for an issue of 5.5million Redport shares (closed yesterday at 5.1c) and the right to first right of refusal to buy possible iron ore, manganese and chrome resources at redport's other tenements.
> 
> Redport will earn 12c per kg of U3O8 sold from LH - expected to be worth between $1.5-3.8million over the predicted 11 year life of the mine.  Redport purchased the royalty with the goal of earning long term cash flow.
> 
> ...




Thanks for that Doc, keep us posted on your analysis. Maybe the recent volume spike was because of the Redport news leak?? Let's see how it plays out today- sell the fact for the Redport news or buy the rumour for the bfs??


----------



## doctorj (30 June 2005)

*Re: AZR Aztec Resources- Little guy going Up?*

I doubt AZR gaining an interest in Redport would generate any buying at all.  It's that immaterial to AZR, they've not even announced it.  

Decent volumes lately, but nothing particularly exciting.  Perhaps the BFS is a few weeks off yet.


----------



## red (30 June 2005)

*Re: AZR Aztec Resources- Little guy going Up?*

Activity may be related to large transportable camp arriving in Derby for transport by barge to Koolan


----------



## RichKid (30 June 2005)

*Re: AZR Aztec Resources- Little guy going Up?*



			
				doctorj said:
			
		

> I doubt AZR gaining an interest in Redport would generate any buying at all.  It's that immaterial to AZR, they've not even announced it.
> 
> Decent volumes lately, but nothing particularly exciting.  Perhaps the BFS is a few weeks off yet.




That's the problem with insiders, they may have just fed snippets of 'rumour' and that could have got em going, no point speculating too much, hence my comfort in the charts as my 'insider'!! I love the descriptions of insider buying patterns in Edwards and Magee (back when no one outside The Street knew how it worked).
You are right, they haven't even announced it, guess any benefits will come years down the track.


----------



## johnno261 (30 June 2005)

*Re: AZR Aztec Resources- Little guy going Up?*



			
				RichKid said:
			
		

> That's the problem with insiders, they may have just fed snippets of 'rumour' and that could have got em going, no point speculating too much, hence my comfort in the charts as my 'insider'!! I love the descriptions of insider buying patterns in Edwards and Magee (back when no one outside The Street knew how it worked).
> You are right, they haven't even announced it, guess any benefits will come years down the track.




Regardless of the above rumours, lets all look at the big picture and it appears that Mr.Burston has let the market down with not presenting the BSF once again on time!!! Maybe the BFS will come out tomorrow, but I am concerned that we are yet to see anything!! Just my opinion.


----------



## RichKid (30 June 2005)

*Re: AZR Aztec Resources- Little guy going Up?*



			
				johnno261 said:
			
		

> Regardless of the above rumours, lets all look at the big picture and it appears that Mr.Burston has let the market down with not presenting the BSF once again on time!!! Maybe the BFS will come out tomorrow, but I am concerned that we are yet to see anything!! Just my opinion.




Yes, that is a very good point, it's easy to get caught up in a stock and make excuses for it. In fact if Burston is such a good manager he'll have the bsf out tomorrow or early next week, anything longer we'll make us wonder if we can believe other statements made by AZR management. He has also suggested (See earlier posts) that it'll be very favourable so that's another point to note when evaluating it.


----------



## red (1 July 2005)

*Re: AZR Aztec Resources- Little guy going Up?*

26th May report said the BSF "was expected" in late June doesn't appear to be a deadline.
If the Derby report was rumour I wouldn't have mentioned it on this forum.


----------



## RichKid (1 July 2005)

*Re: AZR Aztec Resources- Little guy going Up?*



			
				red said:
			
		

> 26th May report said the BSF "was expected" in late June doesn't appear to be a deadline.
> If the Derby report was rumour I wouldn't have mentioned it on this forum.




Red, I wasn't referring to you at all if that's the implication, this is just speculation based on possible explanations using TA theory.  The more reliable and accurate the company annoucements are the less we need to guess imo. Maybe I'm just impatient about the bfs.


----------



## doctorj (11 July 2005)

*Re: AZR Aztec Resources- Little guy going Up?*

When a company continues to miss its own deadlines, there is cause for concern.  The BFS was originally due December '04, then January, then Q1 05 and most recently the end of June.  We're now near on half way through July and we're yet to hear a peep out of AZR.

I acknowledge that the BFS is not a simple document and is typically released much later than announced.  I also acknowledge that there are plenty of elements of a BFS that are outside AZR's control.  That said, AZR's policy on disclosure is completely under their control.  You would think that an exploration company looking to become a producer would do all within its power to foster a positive relationship with their shareholders.

I'll go out on a limb here and say that I don't expect their completed BFS to be released until september - in time for their AGM in October.  This is not based on anything, except for the fact they'll want to have it out before then in order to avoid the obvious from shareholders.

Finally the reason for this post - todays trading - a cause for some concern as I may be stopped out shortly!


----------



## RichKid (11 July 2005)

*Re: AZR Aztec Resources- Little guy going Up?*



			
				doctorj said:
			
		

> When a company continues to miss its own deadlines, there is cause for concern.  .......That said, AZR's policy on disclosure is completely under their control.  You would think that an exploration company looking to become a producer would do all within its power to foster a positive relationship with their shareholders.
> 
> I'll go out on a limb here and say that I don't expect their completed BFS to be released until september - in time for their AGM in October.  .......Finally the reason for this post - todays trading - a cause for some concern as I may be stopped out shortly!




Great post Doc, not even a 'revised' release date. This is basically mid-July now. I seriously expect a re-test of support at 19c as this stock runs on news. Volume is flat as. FYI I'm out of AZR completely. Waiting for a re-entry, it may run up and I may miss out but I'm not concerned.  I thought Burston would come through after that public statement you mentioned a few weeks ago. Oh well, glad to be following technicals rather than fundamentals, the market really is a gamble at times  

Goes to show how stock picking becomes more important in choppy markets, co's with unreliable mgmt become soft targets imho.


----------



## RichKid (12 July 2005)

*Re: AZR Aztec Resources- Little guy going Up?*

Well, that's a quicker than expected drop down to 19.5c, might even go lower to the old all time high unless there is some assurance about the release of the bfs soon. Just look at the volume drop, shows how many were speculating. Some depth at around 19c but not sure how long it'll last at this rate. It only takes a half decent bfs for this to stabilise again imo. Good news it that the 19c support level has survived a few tests this year.


----------



## RichKid (12 July 2005)

*Re: AZR Aztec Resources- Little guy going Up?*

Haven't seen an AZR graph on this thread recently so thought I'd post a couple. The medium term chart shows why this could easily slip into a range in the mid teens (15-20c); if 19c goes then the last major high is the next line of support imo, with volatility this could result in some distribution and boredom for holders.

The short term graph shows the high volume on the distribution day today. The long term graph (multi-year, not shown) still suggests the uptrend is intact, but will be testing support soon imo.

Sorry no lines etc but things should be clear from a look at the graphs. Wish there were more chartists commenting on this, very boring now but a different view would be good for study. I have better risk/return candidates in mind or I would look to enter AZR at 19c again with a tight stop.


----------



## doctorj (12 July 2005)

*Re: AZR Aztec Resources- Little guy going Up?*

I agree with you RK, today was certainly more severe than I had originally suspected.  I'm now out again, but will be looking for an entry again soon.  It's been good to me so far, but would have been better if I had of set tighter stops - rather than loose ones I have used with the expectation of the BFS being positive and worth waiting for.  Just something else to chalk up to experience I guess.

And now I hear a completely unsubstantiated rumour that its this week for the BFS.  Given the sell down of the week thus far, my gut feeling is that it is extremely unlikely and I stick by my original guestimate of it being released sometime between now and October.


----------



## the.j (13 July 2005)

*Re: AZR Aztec Resources- Little guy going Up?*

Fourth Quarter Activities Report is out now ... awaiting market's take on it!

Cheers
J


----------



## RichKid (13 July 2005)

*Re: AZR Aztec Resources- Little guy going Up?*



			
				the.j said:
			
		

> Fourth Quarter Activities Report is out now ... awaiting market's take on it!
> Cheers
> J




Thanks for that J, looks like it wasn't well received, but could've been worse. Another big down day, so bsf is at least a month away as they complete the other stuff they need to do.  I think Doc's estimate is looking better and better everyday. Distribution days on high vol is bad for any stock.


----------



## johnno261 (18 July 2005)

*AZR-Extraction costs up a staggering 75%*

I would imagine alot of downward movement tomorrow on this little fella!! MD Ian Burston has just today released some interesting new figures that don't at all look good for the company!! Extraction costs per tonne have gone from an expected $20p/t to a staggering $35p/t. A huge 75% increase which is really going to effect the company's bottom line. When prices on Iron Ore retreat in a few years time and they happen to pull back to pre 2005 prices, AZR will be operating at a loss of 4%.That's not good!!!!!


----------



## doctorj (18 July 2005)

*Re: AZR Aztec Resources- Little guy going Up?*

Do you have a link please?


----------



## johnno261 (18 July 2005)

*Re: AZR Aztec Resources- Little guy going Up?*



			
				doctorj said:
			
		

> Do you have a link please?




www.asx.com.au


----------



## doctorj (18 July 2005)

*Re: AZR Aztec Resources- Little guy going Up?*

Thanks, for some reason it wasn't appearing on my screen.  Interesting also that it wasn't market price sensitive.


----------



## RichKid (18 July 2005)

*Re: AZR-Extraction costs up a staggering 75%*



			
				johnno261 said:
			
		

> I would imagine alot of downward movement tomorrow on this little fella!! MD Ian Burston has just today released some interesting new figures that don't at all look good for the company!! Extraction costs per tonne have gone from an expected $20p/t to a staggering $35p/t. A huge 75% increase which is really going to effect the company's bottom line. When prices on Iron Ore retreat in a few years time and they happen to pull back to pre 2005 prices, AZR will be operating at a loss of 4%.That's not good!!!!!




If that is true and its siginificance is as viewed by johnno then we can guess why he's taken so long to release the info, the longer it takes the worse it appears the news is. Must be shopping around for the cheapest he can get, those figures are not encouraging. Not over yet though, perhaps this week's sp moves will tell us a lot about the next few months action as we are near key support levels, hard to get up above them if we fall sharply on volume imo.


----------



## el_ninj0 (27 July 2005)

*Re: AZR Aztec Resources- Little guy going Up?*

Well, there is definetely some news we dont know about. 5 million shares traded in the first 5 mins of trading.


----------



## doctorj (2 August 2005)

*Re: AZR Aztec Resources- Little guy going Up?*

Well, something did happen.

Turns out word has gotten around that the project is now marginal at best.  El ninj0 was correct, on the 27th something was going on - that date was the first day AZR broke support at 20c and closed below that mark.

Companies like this reinforce the importance of sticking to your trading plan.  They certainly have with me.  If I had of broken the rules like I had in the past, chances are, I'd still be holding.

Attached is the chart as of COB today. It should be noted that there was steady buying at 16c today, but with market confidence being what it is, it'd be very difficult to see someone getting involved in this on a fundamental basis until the BFS clears everything up.  For the technically inclined, the chart speaks for itself.


----------



## RichKid (2 August 2005)

*Re: AZR Aztec Resources- Little guy going Up?*

Shows how useful charts can be if traded carefully, a few of us here have made money on it and now it can go down to 1c for all we care. But lest I forget, I have been on the wrong side of the street before when some of these speccies were diving.

Perhaps we could also spend more time watching Blackdogs barking and make sure our favourite stocks are not on his list? Just an extra filter for those ones we think are going to go forever. Just a view, not yet a serious thought.

I haven't changed my technical view on this one. Former support is now resistance imo. See my earlier charts. Time to find better iron ore speccies below 20c in the exploration phase.

Might be good to keep an eye on this from time to time to see how it goes, will be a good experience for the future. Since we don't really have any concrete info it could be that AZR does come through. I'm sure there will be a bigger effort put into further drilling and exploration (or Matich might do another quick deal like with FXR to change focus).


----------



## doctorj (5 August 2005)

*Re: AZR Aztec Resources- Little guy going Up?*

AZR now in a trading halt until they announce their BFS on Monday.


----------



## el_ninj0 (5 August 2005)

*Re: AZR Aztec Resources- Little guy going Up?*



			
				doctorj said:
			
		

> AZR now in a trading halt until they announce their BFS on Monday.




Any word on the scene about whats going to happen doc?, ive got a bad vibe from azr in the past few days. But more often than not, i could very well be wrong.


----------



## doctorj (5 August 2005)

*Re: AZR Aztec Resources- Little guy going Up?*

Can't say I've been following too closely.

Seeing Fidelity sell its holding so close to the BFS is obviously a concern.  I will be having a close look at the BFS to see whether or not I will keep them on my watch list.  There may be trade opportunities early next week.


----------



## doctorj (8 August 2005)

*Re: AZR Aztec Resources- Little guy going Up?*

BFS out - only had time for a quick glance.  I'm sure more detailed analysis will follow in the coming days.

Projected NPV (EBITA) of $217mill at a 10% discount rate.  With about 490 million shares on issue the project is worth about 44cps.  $108mill projected capital cost to establish the mine and required infrastructure.  Currently has ~$17mill cash on hand.

Fully diluted, including tax, but excluding tax credits, interest deductions and the interest itself, Koolan is worth about 29.5cps fully diluted.

This figure is indicative only and ignores many things and is conservative based on what it ignores.

At the time of writing, FAR is up 2 to 18.5cps with about 8.5mill shares traded after about 15 minutes of coming out of the trading halt.  Sell depth quite strong up to 21cps with another 8mill shares in waiting, but thins out a little there after.


----------



## el_ninj0 (8 August 2005)

*Re: AZR Aztec Resources- Little guy going Up?*

Looks like positive news to me on the AZR front. $583 million worth of ore shipments in the 9 year life time of the koolan island project, and they are a go for the operation, with shipping to start in 2nd half 2006. Its good to finally see some positive news again about this company. So much for your 1cps RichKid,


----------



## RichKid (8 August 2005)

*Re: AZR Aztec Resources- Little guy going Up?*



			
				el_ninj0 said:
			
		

> Looks like positive news to me on the AZR front. $583 million worth of ore shipments in the 9 year life time of the koolan island project, and they are a go for the operation, with shipping to start in 2nd half 2006. Its good to finally see some positive news again about this company. So much for your 1cps RichKid,




Yep, sure is above 1c atm. Still following my last chart (post #305). Today's bar isn't the most inspiring. I like Doc's observations. Do you hold el ninj0? You don't have to answer, must wondering.


----------



## el_ninj0 (8 August 2005)

*Re: AZR Aztec Resources- Little guy going Up?*

Yer i do hold RichKid, only a small amount though. Would have been a nice day trade today if i wasn't otherwise occupied.


----------



## doctorj (8 August 2005)

*Re: AZR Aztec Resources- Little guy going Up?*

Don't get me wrong, the BFS does not look negative at all.  Costs could easily have come in considerably higher.  

Anyone had the opportunity to pull it apart in any detail yet?


----------



## RichKid (9 August 2005)

*Re: AZR Aztec Resources- Little guy going Up?*



			
				doctorj said:
			
		

> Don't get me wrong, the BFS does not look negative at all.  Costs could easily have come in considerably higher.
> 
> Anyone had the opportunity to pull it apart in any detail yet?




Sorry Doc, I'm pretty bad at that type of thing and I don't know how much to trust them either as they could easily revise the figures or data. Just chart watching atm.


----------



## doctorj (5 September 2005)

*Re: AZR Aztec Resources- Little guy going Up?*

Seems dead in the water at the moment, volume has fallen away completely and trading just under 18c. Needs to put some runs on the board in terms of meeting project goals and restoring faith that the project is actually profitable.


----------



## el_ninj0 (5 September 2005)

*Re: AZR Aztec Resources- Little guy going Up?*



			
				doctorj said:
			
		

> Seems dead in the water at the moment, volume has fallen away completely and trading just under 18c. Needs to put some runs on the board in terms of meeting project goals and restoring faith that the project is actually profitable.




Its interesting to see whats happening at the moment anyway. I thought there would have been alot more of a positive result from the BSF, considering that its a confirmed go ahead on operations. What is the date of the first shipments of iron ore from koolan?


----------



## RichKid (15 September 2005)

*Re: AZR Aztec Resources- Little guy going Up?*



			
				el_ninj0 said:
			
		

> Its interesting to see whats happening at the moment anyway. I thought there would have been alot more of a positive result from the BSF, considering that its a confirmed go ahead on operations. What is the date of the first shipments of iron ore from koolan?




Not sure but they have a lot to do before that, also worried as BDB has it on its blacklist and as we found out they do delay things. Maybe it'll jump up in the next round of excitement about iron ore. Nothing attractive about the chart atm, still languishing below resistance.


----------



## chansw (21 September 2005)

*Re: AZR Aztec Resources- Little guy going Up?*

Anyone knows why it moved up 11% today? Can't find any announcement. Thanks.


----------



## doctorj (22 September 2005)

*Re: AZR Aztec Resources- Little guy going Up?*

I noticed it too and have no idea why.

I'd expect a significant shareholder notice in the coming days.


----------



## doctorj (22 September 2005)

*Re: AZR Aztec Resources- Little guy going Up?*

Well, Brett Matich has left.  I'm sure blackdogsbarking will be happy - assuming he hasn't diverted all his attention SHN and not noticed.


----------



## el_ninj0 (22 September 2005)

*Re: AZR Aztec Resources- Little guy going Up?*

Indeed, this could be the start of a turn around for AZR. Lets hope bdb gives it some thought, . I thought there would have been alot more action when the BFS for Koolan came out, since it was a positive announcement. Hopefully it picks up now.


----------



## RichKid (13 October 2005)

*Re: AZR Aztec Resources- Little guy going Up?*

Folks out there still watching this? Any news? It's back to the high teens again and seems okay for now. No real entry trigger for me yet.


----------



## johnno261 (16 October 2005)

*Re: AZR Aztec Resources- Little guy going Up?*



			
				RichKid said:
			
		

> Folks out there still watching this? Any news? It's back to the high teens again and seems okay for now. No real entry trigger for me yet.



Perusing @ Chart on AZR doesn't look too flash. May bottom out around 16 cents support level.


----------



## yogi-in-oz (17 January 2006)

*Re: AZR Aztec Resources- Little guy going Up?*



Hi folks,

AZR ..... technically, we can see 3 significant
time cycles, around 27-31012006 ..... 

..... looks positive .....???

happy days

  yogi


----------



## chansw (23 January 2006)

The share price is moving up today and I found an article "Big names want cut of Koolan" on afr.com. Unfortunately, I am not a subscriber of AFR. Can anyone who read that article and give us some ideas what it is talking about, please? Thanks.


----------



## yogi-in-oz (14 March 2006)

Hi folks,

AZR ..... almost primed again ..... 

Looking at time cycles, ahead:

   16032006 ..... significant and positive = low???
                   - finance-related???

   30032006 ..... negative spotlight on AZR 

14-17042006 ..... minor

21-24042006 ..... significant and negative news???

   01052006 ..... minor and negative ???

   10052006 ..... minor

   12052006 ..... significant and negative (finances???)

   24052006 ..... significant and positive news???

   31052006 ..... positive spotlight on AZR ???

happy days

  yogi


----------



## yogi-in-oz (17 March 2006)

Hi folks,

AZR ..... as per post above:

"16032006 ..... significant and positive = low???
- finance-related???"

..... and right on time, this news arrives
from AZR ..... 

"16th	Update - Sales Contract Negotiations"

..... so much for the skeptix.

happy days

  yogi


----------



## RichKid (24 April 2006)

An article on AZR in today's Sydney Morning Herald:



> *Aztec flags cost overrun at Koolan mine*
> April 24, 2006 - 1:54PM
> http://www.smh.com.au/news/Business...-at-Koolan-mine/2006/04/24/1145730850042.html
> 
> ...


----------



## Sumthinggg (8 August 2006)

Hi all,
Just was wondering if any of you's could shed some light on this company regarding the takeover bid by MGX (Mount Gibson), is this a good thing or not in your views? Do you think it will go ahead?
Thanks


----------



## chansw (13 August 2006)

From: The Sydney Morning Herald
*Aztec sees more takeover offers coming*
August 8, 2006 - 4:59PM

http://www.smh.com.au/news/Business/Aztec-sees-more-takeover-offers-coming/2006/08/08/1154802879719.html

Takeover target Aztec Resources Ltd believes there could be other companies planning counter bids to top an offer by predator Mount Gibson Iron Ltd.

Aztec chairman Ian Burston said consolidation amongst the junior developers was inevitable and he had been expecting a bid for the company since day one.

"We are not against or violently opposed to an offer, one could have almost expected it from day one had we got to this stage," Mr Burston told reporters at the annual Diggers and Dealers mining forum.

"If great pots of money was pushed across the table I wouldn't have to advise the shareholders - they'd all be gone."

Mount Gibson launched a takeover bid for Aztec in late July and Aztec directors are still considering the offer.

Mount Gibson is expected to release its bidder's statement next week, after which Mr Burston said the board would make a recommendation to shareholders.

Another iron ore developer, Gindalbie Metals Ltd, recently picked up less then five per cent of Aztec's issued share capital.

Gindalbie was originally involved in a plan for a three-way consolidation with Aztec and Mount Gibson, but later withdrew.

But buying the stake was a sure sign Gindalbie was still interested in Aztec, Mr Burston said.

"For whatever reason, and I don't know that reason, Gindalbie withdrew from the activity taking place at the moment and from a logical point of view, that was a wise thing to do," he said.

"I can also assume if the thought has been there it will be there again ... I don't think they've gone away."

Mount Gibson's all scrip offer of one of its shares for three Aztec shares values the target at around $280 million.

Aztec is developing the $125 million Koolan Island iron ore project off the coast of the Kimberley region of Western Australia, with the first shipment expected to leave the island early next year.

The company is in advanced discussions with three potential buyers and expects to sign off on at least two off-take contracts soon for the anticipated four million tonnes of annual production.

Aztec shares closed at 24 cents, up half a cent. Mount Gibson was half a cent higher at 74.5 cents while Gindalbie was three cents lower at 53 cents.


----------



## haemitite (31 August 2006)

Read through the bidders statement today from MGX. Business Case for AZR shareholders is less than compelling


exposure to more lump - DOH. Revenues assumptions already cater for that in the respective AZR and MGX shareprices

diversification of risk - buy both companies separately then. sum of the parts = the whole

bigger company gets better market rating - highly theoretical

admission that there are very few synergies

Its a clever opportunistic bid, making a nice arbitrage return on the actual risk of a well executed AZR project as opposed to the perceived risk factored into the AZR share price.

At the current bid price I'll be hanging onto my AZR shares and hoping that 9.97% of my fellow shareholders do the same


----------



## chansw (31 August 2006)

haemitite said:
			
		

> Read through the bidders statement today from MGX. Business Case for AZR shareholders is less than compelling
> 
> 
> exposure to more lump - DOH. Revenues assumptions already cater for that in the respective AZR and MGX shareprices
> ...




I agree what you said after reading the bidder statement and I will be hanging onto my AZR shares as well. Aztec has a very experienced team and I am sure we are in the good hands.


----------



## new girl (1 September 2006)

haemitite said:
			
		

> Read through the bidders statement today from MGX. Business Case for AZR shareholders is less than compelling
> 
> At the current bid price I'll be hanging onto my AZR shares and hoping that 9.97% of my fellow shareholders do the same





Thanks Heamitite

I'll be hanging onto mine as well. I was told by my broker AZR should double by the end of the year, what do you think?


----------



## nioka (1 September 2006)

chansw said:
			
		

> I agree what you said after reading the bidder statement and I will be hanging onto my AZR shares as well. Aztec has a very experienced team and I am sure we are in the good hands.



I agree too. Not only holding but got a few more.


----------



## haemitite (1 September 2006)

new girl said:
			
		

> Thanks Heamitite
> 
> I'll be hanging onto mine as well. I was told by my broker AZR should double by the end of the year, what do you think?




I've been a little lazy, I will pull together a quick valuation model using the cost data from their bankable feas study.

Iron ore prices for the next japanese financial year are already looking up. After last years 71% rise, the early talk was a 20% cut for 1 apr 06. People then were talking a rollover, then it ended up 20% higher. Iron Ore supply is still constrained, BHP and Rio are both catching up with big expansions so I think pricing may hold at these levels for a couple more years before the inevitable drop off. Hopefully FMG don't get up, they have a low quality resource so they will be price takers if market demand cools - not good for the other producers.

It would have been nice if AZR could have gotten up 12 months earlier. As to what this means for pricing, I don't yet know. I need to plug it into the valuation model.


----------



## haemitite (4 September 2006)

Ended up with a valuation of 25c for a 40Mt reserve, value increased to 35c for 60Mt reserve


discount rate 7% real
3 year ramp up to 4Mtpa
Opex of $30/t (from BFS)
Updates capex of 125M 
30% Lump 
7.5% lump royalty, 5.62% fines
price equivalent to 61 USc per dmtu flat real
1.04 B shares

The opex looks high given the big boys manage it for $10-13/t, guessing that I may have doublecounted royalties. If so the core valuation increases to 0.29c

Tornado chart showing sensitivities to follow once I work out how to post it


----------



## haemitite (6 September 2006)

Sensitivity plot uploaded







(image is not appearing on my pc, try *http://tinyurl.com/etjaj* for linked graphic)

Add 4c if the royalty has been included in the opex figures


----------



## chansw (7 September 2006)

*Aztec signs sales contract with Marubeni*
7-September-06 by Edited announcement

http://www.wabusinessnews.com.au/en-story.php?/1/43031/Aztec-signs-sales-contract-with-Marubeni

South Perth-based Aztec Resources Limited has signed a long term contract for iron ore sales from its Koolan Island project with Japan's Marubeni Corporation. 

The contract, for an annual sale of one million tonnes, comes less than a month after the company signed an 15 year supply contract with China-based shareholder CITIC Australia Commodity Trading Ltd for 1.5 million tonnes per annum. 

Marubeni had previously agreed to provide Aztec with up to $20 million in project development funds earlier this year.


Broad terms of the sales contract include:


- Annual sale of one million tonnes based on a full production rate of four million tonnes per annum for up to 15 years or the life of the mine, whichever is less. At a production rate of less than four million tonnes per annum, sales will be pro-rated.
- Prices are based on the annual benchmark price negotiated by the major Pilbara producers for equivalent iron ore products. 
- Signing of the sales contract between Aztec and Marubeni follows the Memorandum of Understanding between the two companies in December 2004 and the Letter of Intent agreed in December 2005.

Aztec now has two sales contracts in place with CITIC Group and Marubeni covering nominal annual sales of 2.5 million tonnes. The Company advises that additional sales contracts are currently under negotiation to cover the balance of the planned annual production of four million tonnes.


----------



## chansw (8 September 2006)

The following is from today's announcement.

You can read the whole document at

http://www.aztecresources.com.au/documents/411.pdf


*Koolan Island Iron Ore Project – Update*

• *Iron Ore Reserves increased to 24.8 million tonnes at 65% Fe*
• *Construction and mining activities on track for first production in December 2006 with initial shipments still expected in early 2007
• Negotiations with banking syndicate progressing well
• Minor revision of Project development costs
• Encouraging drill results achieved at Mangrove Prospect*
• *Aztec Board formally REJECTS Mount Gibson’s inadequate Takeover Offer*

Things are getting better and better. Please hang onto your Aztec shares as it is definitely worth more than what Mount Gibson offers and more importantly without the risks that Mount Gibson offers to us.  

The following is the announcement of rejecting Mount Gibson's offer.

http://www.aztecresources.com.au/documents/410.pdf

*AZTEC BOARD FORMALLY RECOMMENDS SHAREHOLDERS
REJECT MOUNT GIBSON’S INADEQUATE OFFER*

Aztec Resources Limited (ASX/AIM:AZR) (“Aztec”) notes Mount Gibson Iron Limited (“Mount Gibson”) recently dispatched its Bidder’s Statement to Aztec’s shareholders relating to its unsolicited and conditional Takeover Offer (“Offer”) for Aztec.

As outlined in Aztec’s letter to shareholders on 29 August 2006, Aztec’s Directors consider that the Bidder’s Statement lacks the necessary disclosures Aztec Shareholders require to fully assess Mount Gibson and its Offer.

On 6 September 2006, in response to actions by your Aztec Directors, Mount Gibson released a Supplementary Bidder’s Statement providing Aztec’s Shareholders with additional and necessary information that Aztec considers should have been provided in the original Bidder’s Statement.

Aztec Directors continue to seek further information and disclosures from Mount Gibson. 

After a detailed assessment of the Offer, Aztec’s Directors unanimously recommend that shareholders REJECT the inadequate offer from Mount Gibson.

The reasons for this recommendation are as follows:

• The loyalty of Aztec shareholders is set to be rewarded as Aztec’s Koolan Island Project commences production of iron ore. The Aztec management team has made significant progress in developing the Project over the past year and remain on track for first production in December 2006 and first shipments of iron ore in early 2007.
• The Offer is inadequate. It does not reflect the strategic importance of the Koolan Island Project to Mount Gibson.
• The Offer is opportunistically timed to take advantage of Aztec in the period prior to the commencement of production at Koolan Island.
• The Aztec Board holds serious concerns about the risks associated with the Mount Gibson shares being offered to Aztec shareholders as consideration under the Offer. In particular:   
   - Mount Gibson’s ability to sustain production and shipping of three million tonnes per annum from its Tallering Peak operation is unproven.
  - The significant risks associated with the development of Mount Gibson’s Extension Hill Hematite Project. At this time only a desk top study has been completed.
  - Mount Gibson’s management team have continued to underperform their own operational and financial projections for the company.

Since the Mount Gibson Offer was announced, Aztec has been approached by a number of other parties interested in pursuing opportunities with Aztec. Aztec will continue to explore these opportunities and will keep you informed should any developments arise.

The Aztec Board urges shareholders to continue to support Aztec’s management as it works to bring the Koolan Island Project into production for the benefit of all Aztec shareholders.

Shareholders are advised to disregard all documents sent to them by Mount Gibson until they receive Aztec’s Target's Statement which contains Aztec’s detailed response to the Mount Gibson Offer.


----------



## haemitite (13 September 2006)

I was disappointed in the AZR response to the MGX takeover

The response largely focused on the downside to owning MGX script. The only valuation issue of substance was the point made earlier in this thread that the offer was opportunistic as the project had laregly been de-risked.

There is no independent valuation report, no indication of what the AZR directors think the company is worth etc. If MGX came back tomorrow with a cash rather then script offer then the AZR response would be 90% negated.


----------



## haemitite (27 September 2006)

The has to be movement in the takeover stakes soon

MGX continue to claim that their offer is at a premium of approx 40% to the earlier AZR share price - which completely ignores that AZR never traded at the 26.3c mark, and are now around 22c due to weakness in MGX script

But with only 1.5 weeks left and 0.4% acceptances outside of Cambrian  MGX will have to up their offer and/or put cash on the table if they hope to suceed


----------



## nioka (27 September 2006)

haemitite said:
			
		

> I was disappointed in the AZR response to the MGX takeover
> 
> The response largely focused on the downside to owning MGX script. The only valuation issue of substance was the point made earlier in this thread that the offer was opportunistic as the project had laregly been de-risked.
> 
> There is no independent valuation report, no indication of what the AZR directors think the company is worth etc. If MGX came back tomorrow with a cash rather then script offer then the AZR response would be 90% negated.



I go along with the AZR board. I hold AZR shares which I believed would double in price when the Company is in production, which is not too far off. I looked at MGX at the time I purchased AZR and chose AZR as the one with the best long term prospects. I am a very small holder with only 20000 shares so have little to lose either way, but I will hold out.


----------



## chansw (27 September 2006)

haemitite said:
			
		

> The has to be movement in the takeover stakes soon
> 
> MGX continue to claim that their offer is at a premium of approx 40% to the earlier AZR share price - which completely ignores that AZR never traded at the 26.3c mark, and are now around 22c due to weakness in MGX script
> 
> But with only 1.5 weeks left and 0.4% acceptances outside of Cambrian  MGX will have to up their offer and/or put cash on the table if they hope to suceed



I don't think MGX have any hope to succeed if all they can offer is $0.26 (even if that is cash). Personally, I still stand by my earlier view that Aztec has a more experienced management team and board. Everything is on track and looking good. Just another a few months, the company will get into production. I have to say that you have to be silly enough to sell at this stage especially with that kind of offer. No wonder only 0.4% acceptances outside of Cambrian and other major shareholders still hold. Just be patience and we will get there.


----------



## haemitite (27 September 2006)

nioka said:
			
		

> I go along with the AZR board. I hold AZR shares which I believed would double in price when the Company is in production, which is not too far off. I looked at MGX at the time I purchased AZR and chose AZR as the one with the best long term prospects. I am a very small holder with only 20000 shares so have little to lose either way, but I will hold out.



I don't think that the AZR board have played the game well (at least publicly), but MGX have played it far worse.

I think 30c would be achieved once AZR shows the Koolan Island op can run to schedule, possibly 35-40c in two yeas time at the full production rate with reserve upside


----------



## chansw (3 October 2006)

http://www.thewest.com.au/default.aspx?MenuID=33&ContentID=8455

*Aztec gets more cash to stave off takeover*
2nd October 2006, 9:45 WST

Takeover target Aztec Resources is gearing up to pull more rabbits out of its hat over the next few days in its battle to defeat Mount Gibson Iron’s hostile $280 million takeover bid. 

Aztec took a big step on Friday towards locking in the outstanding funds it needs to complete development of its $133 million Koolan Island mine, securing a $65 million lease deal with Komatsu to provide the mobile mining fleet. 

Having already raised more than $84 million in equity, and signed a formal offtake agreement with China’s CITIC Group and Japanese trader Marubeni, the company is now expected to finalise a $60 million debt funding package from a syndicate of banks within the next fortnight. 

Furthermore, Aztec is also now believed to be targeting a production start at Koolan Island in the next few days, significantly earlier than the year-end date previously flagged. 

The company will start mining at the Eastern and Mullet satellite pits, which will provide the bulk of production for the first two years while the big Main Pit resource is dewatered. 

Ore from the two pits will be stockpiled in preparation for the first shipment to customers early next year. 

It is also understood that at least two third parties have revisited Aztec’s data room for a second time in recent weeks, bolstering Aztec’s hopes of generating an alternative proposal to Mt Gibson’s one-for-three scrip offer, even though the Mid-West miner now speaks for at least 32 per cent of the target’s shares. 

Still, Mt Gibson remains confident it will ultimately prevail and will this week implement an institutional acceptance facility to encourage institutional shareholders to sell into the offer. 

Investors also seem resigned to the bid succeeding based on Mt Gibson’s Friday close of 69 ¢, which valued Aztec at 23 ¢, a premium to its close of 22.5 ¢. 

While the Aztec takeover continues to take most of the spotlight, WA’s other iron ore juniors continue to make headway in their own quests to join the ranks of producers. 

Atlas Iron, which will follow Aztec into production early in 2008, last week bolstered the prospects of its Pardoo project near Port Hedland when it reported two new “blind” hematite discoveries under shallow cover with the potential to further boost resources of direct shipping material. 

Atlas said the small eight-hole exploration program returned best hits of 16m at 58.6 per cent iron at the Floyd prospect, and 14m at 58.2 per cent iron at the nearby Clare prospect. A detailed follow-up program would start soon ahead of a resource estimate by year’s end. 

Resource drilling also identified extensions to the South Limb, Olivia, Hubert and Alice deposits, which host most of the 7.2 million tonnes of direct shipping grade ore identified to date. 

Meanwhile, Pilbara neighbour Cape Lambert Iron confirmed resources at its namesake magnetite project near Karratha would surpass the 2.5 billion tonnes estimated by former owner Robe River Iron. Cape Lambert, which shares Aztec chairman Ian Burston, said drilling had intersected a 236m wide magnetite zone outside the resource envelope with the first nine holes returning intersections of between 56m to 129m grading around 34 per cent iron. 

And Tony Poli’s emerging coal and iron ore miner, Aquila Resources, unveiled a string of wide high-grade results from its Hardey project near Paraburdoo.  

John Phaceas


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## arlee123 (5 October 2006)

The recent take over bid by MT Gibson has pushed the AZR shares to a new high, however, the board of directors have rejected the offer.. not sure what this will do to the share price..???

But i definitely think AZR is a quality share and should invest in it...


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## arlee123 (5 October 2006)

Sumthinggg said:
			
		

> Hi all,
> Just was wondering if any of you's could shed some light on this company regarding the takeover bid by MGX (Mount Gibson), is this a good thing or not in your views? Do you think it will go ahead?
> Thanks




the offer is being rejected by the board of directors at AZR, but this shows that AZR is a quality company, that is why Mt Gibson want to take over right ? also the koolan island production is going to commence soon so i expect the share price to increase steadily over the coming years.


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## nioka (19 October 2006)

Trading halt till Monday?????????? Another bid maybe?


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## vert (19 October 2006)

its decision day for mt gibson on aztec bid, they are set to declare its 1 for 3 scrip bid unconditional to force azr back to the negotiating table. dropping all conditions will crystallise mgx as azr's leading shareholder with at least 33% making any last minute counter offer from a white knight unlikely.

from the west australian.


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## nioka (23 October 2006)

AZR suspended from official Quotation pending an announcement ????????


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## new girl (26 October 2006)

AZR is back in trading today after the announcement of a $A100 million debt finance facility approval to fund the Koolan Island project. The share price did not move!! I don't get it!!

Can some of the more experienced traders (basically everybody) shed some light on this please?

I did ask before and I was told it's because people are stupid! I'm hoping for a better explanation..


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## nioka (26 October 2006)

new girl said:
			
		

> AZR is back in trading today after the announcement of a $A100 million debt finance facility approval to fund the Koolan Island project. The share price did not move!! I don't get it!!
> 
> Can some of the more experienced traders (basically everybody) shed some light on this please?
> 
> I did ask before and I was told it's because people are stupid! I'm hoping for a better explanation..



I don't believe the price will move much until the situation with MGX is resolved. The price will stay around 33% of MGX price. Hopefully the takeover will not eventuate, production will start and then we will see a price increase. (Maybe then Aztec will take over MGX on better terms than those offered at present.)


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## chansw (26 October 2006)

nioka said:
			
		

> I don't believe the price will move much until the situation with MGX is resolved. The price will stay around 33% of MGX price. Hopefully the takeover will not eventuate, production will start and then we will see a price increase. (Maybe then Aztec will take over MGX on better terms than those offered at present.)



Yes, I agree about the price movement for the time being. However, further exploration on Koolan Island is still continuing so there can be more good news. In terms of the takeover from MGX, I don't think it will happen unless MGX offers something better than the current offer. It was reported on the West Australian before (about a few weeks ago) that Aztec might be in production in a few days which is well ahead of the schedule. Once they draw the money out, who knows? Maybe the production will start sooner than every one expect. So far, Aztec board has delivered all their promises. I am continuing to hold my AZR shares and have no intention to take the offer from MGX. I like your comment about Aztec takes over MGX.  Anything is possible.


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## new girl (27 October 2006)

nioka said:
			
		

> I don't believe the price will move much until the situation with MGX is resolved. The price will stay around 33% of MGX price. Hopefully the takeover will not eventuate, production will start and then we will see a price increase. (Maybe then Aztec will take over MGX on better terms than those offered at present.)




Much better explanation, thank you Noika.


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## Broadside (27 October 2006)

chansw said:
			
		

> Yes, I agree about the price movement for the time being. However, further exploration on Koolan Island is still continuing so there can be more good news. In terms of the takeover from MGX, I don't think it will happen unless MGX offers something better than the current offer. It was reported on the West Australian before (about a few weeks ago) that Aztec might be in production in a few days which is well ahead of the schedule. Once they draw the money out, who knows? Maybe the production will start sooner than every one expect. So far, Aztec board has delivered all their promises. I am continuing to hold my AZR shares and have no intention to take the offer from MGX. I like your comment about Aztec takes over MGX.  Anything is possible.




well I think AZR has fat chance of staying independent, they screwed up this royalty issue by design or incompetence and despite that MGX is going ahead, they will get a lot of acceptances now from annoyed AZR retail and institutional shareholders.  Game over.


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## nioka (27 October 2006)

Broadside said:
			
		

> well I think AZR has fat chance of staying independent, they screwed up this royalty issue by design or incompetence and despite that MGX is going ahead, they will get a lot of acceptances now from annoyed AZR retail and institutional shareholders.  Game over.



Definitely by design in my mind. It delayed things and more importantly reduced MGX % holdings. AZR will be a better business than MGX if they can get started. If the takeover succeeds I will sell, if it doesn't I will hold AZR


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## Broadside (27 October 2006)

if it is by design then AZR allowed itself to get screwed over by ARC purely to frustrate MGX, at the expense of its shareholders...if the MGX bid wasn't there AZR would be sub 20 cents right now...AZR shareholders should count themselves lucky MGX is still there in my view

*************************************************

Aztec Resources' silence about the caveats is worth close scrutiny
COMMENT
Bryan Frith
October 26, 2006
IT turns out that Aztec Resources knew caveats had been placed over its mining tenements, which threatened the company's ability to raise bank financing for its Koolan Island iron ore project and jeopardised its solvency, several weeks before that information was disclosed to the ASX.

That poses the question as to whether it was in compliance with its statutory obligation to comply with ASX's continuous disclosure requirements. A company is required to immediately notify the ASX of any information it has that a reasonable person would expect to have a material effect on the price or value of the company's securities.

Disclosure is not required if a reasonable person wouldn't expect the information to be disclosed, the information is confidential and one or more of five carve-outs apply - that it would be a breach of law to disclose the information; it concerns an incomplete proposal or negotiation; it is insufficiently definite to warrant disclosure; is generated for internal management purposes; or is a trade secret.

The caveats were lodged by Australian Royalties Corp (ARC), which contributed 30 per cent of the mining tenements in return for a royalty and an option to take the tenements back for a peppercorn payment of $1 if Aztec hasn't commenced mining and shipping of a minimum of 500,000 tonnes of iron ore by June 15, 2007.

The caveats were first lodged on September 11 at the WA Department of Industry & Resources but were rejected because they contained a NSW address rather than a WA address. They were re-lodged and accepted on September 19, and on September 29 the department wrote to Aztec informing it of the caveats.

Aztec started negotiations with ARC to have the caveats removed, and may argue that they were incomplete and therefore disclosure was not required earlier. But the negotiations began after the caveats were lodged, and it's arguable that the fact of the caveats being lodged was material price-sensitive information that should have been disclosed as soon as Aztec learned of it, in order to ensure an informed market.

Aztec's unwelcome bidder, Mt Gibson Iron, wrote to Aztec on October 6 raising a number of issues in the annual report, including a directors' qualification that if bank facilities weren't obtained by the end of October, there was significant uncertainty that Aztec could continue as a going concern. Aztec dismissed Mt Gibson's concerns as "grasping at straws" and expressed confidence that the financing would be signed shortly.

Aztec appears to be in this position because it has committed funds to the development of the project before it has the necessary bank finance in place. Last Thursday Aztec suddenly said "an issue" had arisen in relation to the agreement with ARC because the banks wouldn't finalise the facilities unless the caveats were removed. Aztec flagged the need to issue shares to ARC but warned that if its negotiations weren't successful, there was a risk the company would be insolvent.

Aztec's announcement followed a meeting with Mt Gibson to discuss the issue raised by the bidder. At that meeting Aztec revealed the problem in relation to ARC and sought a waiver from Mt Gibson to enable it to issue shares to ARC.

The ASX listing rules prohibit a target company from issuing shares without shareholder approval within three months of the company being told that a person proposes to make a bid. As Aztec was still within that period it sought a waiver from the ASX, but the ASX wouldn't do so unless Mt Gibson would agree.

Mt Gibson was crucial to any shareholder approval, as it held a relevant interest in 33 per cent of Aztec. If Mt Gibson was in favour, it would be approved; if not, it would be rejected. The ASX may have felt that given Aztec's parlous position and the urgency of the issue it would suffice to have Mt Gibson effectively rule on the matter. Mt Gibson was over a barrel. If it refused a waiver there was a real risk that Aztec would collapse and be placed in administration. That wouldn't be in Aztec's interest, or in the interests of Aztec holders as a whole.

Aztec issued 77.777 million shares, or 7 per cent of the capital, at 22.5c a share, valuing the deal at $17.5 million. Mt Gibson was told that was the deal and that the issue price was the VWAP for the previous 20 days' trading. Of course, the Aztec share price was supported and underpinned by the Mt Gibson bid. In May, Aztec issued shares to ARC in relation to the royalty which were at only 19c a share.

Mt Gibson had in mind renegotiating the royalty deal if its bid succeeded, but considered that around $10 million was a fair price - and that ARC has managed to extract a generous price because of Aztec's parlous position.

Mt Gibson told Aztec it would prefer ARC to be paid cash, which could be funded out of the bank facilities allocation for contingencies, but Aztec chose to issue shares. ARC has given conflicting messages as to whether or not it is likely to accept but if it doesn't, it could end up as a blocking stake.


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## chansw (31 October 2006)

nioka said:
			
		

> Definitely by design in my mind. It delayed things and more importantly reduced MGX % holdings. AZR will be a better business than MGX if they can get started. If the takeover succeeds I will sell, if it doesn't I will hold AZR



I agree AZR is a better business than MGX. Look at today's huge volume with the closing price at $0.24 where MGX only closed at $0.705. AZR is more than 33% of MGX share price.


			
				Broadside said:
			
		

> AZR shareholders should count themselves lucky MGX is still there in my view



I tend to disagree. So far as at 26 Oct, MGX had received acceptances for only 1.68% of Aztec shares excluding those from Cambrian Mining. I know some people who have shares in both AZR and MGX and prefer them to be independent on their own. The issue is the majority of AZR shareholders do not think the offer is good enough. If MGX offers a lot of money, I am sure most of us have sold the shares even the board says 'No'. Looking at the chart of MGX, it looks like a dead cross and the share price might fall below $0.70 again.


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## haemitite (1 November 2006)

I read that another analyst has now moved his iron ore benchmark price forecast to +10% for the next Japanese financial year based on supplu shortages.  
Next years price predictions are following the exact same route as last year, early estimates of 10-20% cuts, then price rollovers, now 10% price increases. Hopefully a little more come 1 April 2007

Hang in there AZR.


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## Broadside (1 November 2006)

chansw said:
			
		

> I agree AZR is a better business than MGX. Look at today's huge volume with the closing price at $0.24 where MGX only closed at $0.705. AZR is more than 33% of MGX share price.
> 
> I tend to disagree. So far as at 26 Oct, MGX had received acceptances for only 1.68% of Aztec shares excluding those from Cambrian Mining. I know some people who have shares in both AZR and MGX and prefer them to be independent on their own. The issue is the majority of AZR shareholders do not think the offer is good enough. If MGX offers a lot of money, I am sure most of us have sold the shares even the board says 'No'. Looking at the chart of MGX, it looks like a dead cross and the share price might fall below $0.70 again.




it appears the buying of AZR was by a party sympathetic to MGX, and was switching out of MGX around 85c and back into MGX at 72c (via AZR at 24c)

http://www.theaustralian.news.com.au/story/0,20867,20680335-16941,00.html


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## haemitite (1 November 2006)

We'll see if your sub-20c prediction for AZR holds true next week Broadside when the bid ends with MGX holding only 40-60%.


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## nioka (1 November 2006)

'Shanghai Merchants' have becomea major shareholderin AZR with 6.57%. They also have 10.63% of MGX. They are now the big players. It appears that both MGX and AZR claim to have their support. ??????????


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## haemitite (1 November 2006)

This takeover has been an unholy mess. MGX pitched an all script bid which was only ever going to put on a cap on their share price, especially with their own production now a key value driver in the transaction. And the AZR directors have never bothered telling its shareholders what they think is a fair valuation for AZR.


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## arlee123 (2 November 2006)

Need some Opinion on which stock is better, MGX or AZR..

Short term: ?

Long term :?


thanks guys....just ur own opinions


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## nioka (2 November 2006)

arlee123 said:
			
		

> Need some Opinion on which stock is better, MGX or AZR..
> 
> Short term: ?
> 
> ...




AZR medium to long term and possibly even short term. A lot depends on whose 'side' Shangahi takes. That's my guess and the reason I will not take up MGX's offer.


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## arlee123 (2 November 2006)

nioka said:
			
		

> AZR medium to long term and possibly even short term. A lot depends on whose 'side' Shangahi takes. That's my guess and the reason I will not take up MGX's offer.




Just had a look at MGX's P/E ratio, pretty low for this sector. still a lot of growth possible...but yes ...i agree with that AZR will have more potential...since with koolan island coming into production soon....but AZR has quite a lot of debt...with an increase in interest rate...will this affect the SP ?

cheers


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## new girl (8 November 2006)

nioka said:
			
		

> I don't believe the price will move much until the situation with MGX is resolved. The price will stay around 33% of MGX price.





Hi nioka,

What happened to 33%?? @27c atm. I got fed up with the take over saga and sold my 50,000 shares a couple of weeks ago. Can't complain though, I bought BSG instead (up 20c!).


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## nioka (8 November 2006)

new girl said:
			
		

> Hi nioka,
> 
> What happened to 33%?? @27c atm. I got fed up with the take over saga and sold my 50,000 shares a couple of weeks ago. Can't complain though, I bought BSG instead (up 20c!).



Still around the 33% and going as I said it would.


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## Brasidas (9 November 2006)

The takeover sage is set to run for a while with the Chinese getting involved in both Aztec and Mt Gibson! story from Minesite.com

*Chinese Enter The Battle Between Aztec Resources And Mt Gibson Iron*. 

By Our Man In Oz

Chinese takeaway has a whole new meaning in Australia’s iron ore industry. Not only is it the customer, not the cook, who is the Chinese player in the Australian game, but the purchase order from Shanghai is for the entire shop, not just a serving of noodles. And, if you think that’s complicated wait until you get to the details of what’s afoot in Oz where there’s full-blooded mayhem among the small fry of the iron ore patch, and trying to figure out who’s buying what is almost down to guesswork. In a way, this description is a cop out, but only just. The truth about the small iron ore stocks, especially Aztec Resources and Mt Gibson Iron, is that none of the locals really knows who owns what, when the game will end, or who’s on top.

This complicated muddle is best illustrated by the Aztec situation. Four months ago this company, which is re-developing the old BHP Billiton iron ore mine on Koolan Island, received an uninvited three-for-one share swap takeover from a local rival, Mt Gibson Iron. The plan, according to Mt Gibson, was to create a mid-tier player out of two smaller miners. London-based Cambrian Mining said it quite liked the idea and accepted the Mt Gibson offer for the 30 per cent it owned in Aztec, and earlier today lodged a notice saying at now owned 19.93 per cent of Mt Gibson. Other investors have been slow to follow Cambrian out of Aztec though a steady trickle has lifted Mt Gibson to almost 40 per cent of its target.

In normal circumstance a 40 per cent stake should constitute effective control, and perhaps it will. Aztec, despite making good progress with its Koolan Island project, has fouled its own nest somewhat by botching a royalty deal on the island and forced to cough up an issue of 78 million shares to buy out a strange mob from Sydney called Australian Royalties Corporation, about which nobody knows anything. ARC might even have stayed in the background, except it whacked a caveat on the Koolan Island project and demanded prompt settlement, giving Mt Gibson the ammunition to claim all Aztec shareholders had been misled.

If your head hurts at this point of the saga it might be best to walk away now because it just gets worse thanks to the intervention of even more mystery people – the chaps from China. In the latest twist, a Chinese company called Shanghai Merchants has snapped up a 10.6 per cent stake in Mt Gibson, and a 6.6 per cent stake in Aztec. Shanghai Merchants, with a foot in both camps, is backed by one of China’s biggest steel mills Shougang. It bought the Aztec shares on market, and the stake in Mt Gibson from an even more famous billionaire Chinaman, Lee Ming Tee, a prominent player in the Australian corporate world in the 1980s when he had a number of joint  ventures with Malcolm Burne, chairman of  AIM listed Golden Prospect.

But, before we get to hear from any of the major players in this little spat it is worth noting that Aztec and Mt Gibson are not alone in the great China iron ore takeaway. Other developments include Midwest Corporation, which started shipping iron ore this year and  has been cementing its relationship with China’s biggest steel mill, Sinosteel, plus its friends China Railway Engineering and China Communications. Cape Lambert Iron, a company chaired by Ian Burston, who also chairs Aztec, is said to be in talks with Xingxing Iron Pipes over its Pilbara magnetite project -- and not to be outdone in the stampede for raw materials, Korea’s Posco and Japan’s Mitsubishi are working with Murchison Metals on its Jack Hills iron ore project.

Meanwhile, back at the hottest bid on the table, Aztec v Mt Gibson, a fifth extension has been claimed by the bidder with the offer now due to close on Friday. Mt Gibson said it was confident of victory, citing the royalty mess as a reason to make the switch. Aztec, in turn, claims to have the backing of its new shareholder, Shanghai Merchants. But, when Minesite caught up with Aztec chief executive, Peter Bilbe, he quickly confessed to not knowing precisely who was on what side, or would vote which way. “You wouldn’t exactly say Mt Gibson been overwhelmed with acceptances,” Bilbe said after noting that 30 per cent of its 40 per cent came from Cambrian. But, having made that point, Bilbe acknowledges that 40 per cent is a big stake and talks at some stage, or a Mt Gibson victory subject to Chinese approval, look inevitable.

“No, we’re not talking at the moment,” Bilbe said. “We have in the past had some informal discussions, and from that point of view my door is certainly open. I’m certainly amenable to discussions with them, doing that is obviously in the interests of shareholders.” Minesite listened attentively, but then plays the China card with a question.  “Aren’t the Chinese in a position to pull both companies, Aztec and Mt Gibson, together?” “Look, I don’t know how that’s going to unfold,” Bilbe said. “That would be speculation and I’ll leave that to you. But, you’re quite right, Shanghai’s got about 7 per cent per cent of Aztec and 10 per cent of Mt Gibson. They’re a significant shareholder and we’ve only had preliminary discussions.” 

“But,” asks Minesite,  “who are they?” “Well, look, I don’t know much about them. They’re listed on the Hong Kong Stock Exchange and we’ll be finding out more shortly.  They’ve indicated publicly that they support the Aztec management team, and support what we’re doing at Koolan Island. What that means at the end of the day we’ll just have to wait and see.”

Perhaps, but only perhaps, the sharp little war of words between Aztec and Mt Gibson will come to a head on Friday, though a sixth takeover bid extension is not out of the question, and Mt Gibson’s declaration that its offer has gone unconditional means it is accepting what it’s got. Logic says the Chinese steel mills are keen to see a bigger business emerge by bringing the two small Australian miners together, and Cambrian certainly seems to be in favour of that. The problems, however, are overcoming somewhat bruised Aussie egos, figuring out which Chinaman is in which other Chinaman’s pocket, and being alert to the a second possible move by the mercurial Lee Ming Tee who loves a good takeover brawl.

And after all that, it might be time to hear more from Cape Lambert and the Xingxing Iron Pipe Company – ad certainly from Ian Burston who’s due in London in a few days and might explain what it’s like to be experiencing that great Chinese curse of “living in interesting times”.


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## nioka (9 November 2006)

The next week will be an interesting one for both AZR and MGX. It still depends on whose side the "Shangahi" merchant takes. It looks to me as though another Australian company is moving to foreign ownership at a very cheap price. As a country we have not got much left to sell and one of these days the current account deficit will have to be met.


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## constable (14 November 2006)

some massive accum going on!


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## nioka (28 November 2006)

nioka said:
			
		

> The next week will be an interesting one for both AZR and MGX. It still depends on whose side the "Shangahi" merchant takes. It looks to me as though another Australian company is moving to foreign ownership at a very cheap price. As a country we have not got much left to sell and one of these days the current account deficit will have to be met.



It now looks like the Shanghai merchants have been working for MGX and with the trading halt on both AZR and MGX today I think the fate of AZR is sealed.


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## nioka (28 November 2006)

AZR now recomend the offer by MGX so the takeover looks completed.


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## haemitite (28 November 2006)

Its been a very disappointing defence by AZR management. No independent valuation, no white knight and in the end no better terms than the initial hostile offer.

The directors could point to a share price spprox 40% higher than pre-bid levels, but AZR arguably would have got to these levels anyhow as the project was de-risked

Still undecided as to whether tto ake up the offer, or hang on and hope for an outcome along the lines of the PMM minority holders.


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## nioka (28 November 2006)

haemitite said:
			
		

> Its been a very disappointing defence by AZR management. No independent valuation, no white knight and in the end no better terms than the initial hostile offer.
> 
> The directors could point to a share price spprox 40% higher than pre-bid levels, but AZR arguably would have got to these levels anyhow as the project was de-risked
> 
> Still undecided as to whether tto ake up the offer, or hang on and hope for an outcome along the lines of the PMM minority holders.



I will resist to the end because I believe MGX offered a very poor deal and they will have to do the extra work to get my little bit or pay a premium.


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## laurie (28 November 2006)

Nice gesture but to no avail once the big boys cave in it's a matter of time before it's all completed the only bright part is I'm also a MGX holder so no CGT applies as its a script exchange   

cheers laurie


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## chansw (28 November 2006)

haemitite said:
			
		

> Still undecided as to whether tto ake up the offer, or hang on and hope for an outcome along the lines of the PMM minority holders.



Can anyone tell me what was the outcome for the PMM minority holders, please? Thanks.


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## nioka (28 November 2006)

chansw said:
			
		

> Can anyone tell me what was the outcome for the PMM minority holders, please? Thanks.



As I understand it, the offer was $3.85 per share. Because there was not 90% acceptance the complete take over did not eventuate. The company is still listed with today's price around $5.12 and the company is still operating even though it is minority owned by the old shareholders.


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## haemitite (29 November 2006)

laurie said:
			
		

> Nice gesture but to no avail once the big boys cave in it's a matter of time before it's all completed the only bright part is I'm also a MGX holder so no CGT applies as its a script exchange
> 
> cheers laurie



I think as long as 80% of AZR shareholders accept then there is capital gains tax relief. I don't think hlding MGX shares affects roll over status

Still thinking that I might hold out on my stake even though I'm now horribly overweight after exercising the AZR options.


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