# War threat in Ukraine



## basilio (20 January 2022)

The risk of Russian invasion of Ukraine is now approaching certainty.

What implications are there for investment  markets ? (Greggles observations in Russian Aggression thread)









						US President warns Russia faces a disaster if it decides to invade Ukraine
					

US President Joe Biden says he believes Russia will make a move on Ukraine, adding the nation would pay dearly for a full-scale invasion.




					www.abc.net.au


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## divs4ever (20 January 2022)

Russia doesn't need to invade  there are enough Soviet-trained troops domiciled in the Ukraine  already  , and there would be plenty of older weapons and munitions left over from the Soviet area in bunkers  , the Eastern Ukraine rebels  have all they need except maybe food supplies ( which can be foraged for in any aggressive action )

 remember  the government friendly  forces are mostly conscripts  and some part-time volunteers ( even the police  walked away from the government , and left the armories open ) , now there is some debate on how many battle-hardened Islamists   have 'retired' to the Western part of Ukraine  , and would they be a useful core in any Ukraine defensive move ( since they are more experienced in insurgency )

 implications  , yes the Ukraine will find a way to confiscate more Russian Gas  bound for the EU and Germany ( and i bet Putin is hoping they will do precisely that )

 BTW   Russian  has a fair amount on military ( Army , Navy AND Air Force ) already stationed in Crimea  as per the original lease agreements


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## divs4ever (20 January 2022)

since Putin  is going to China  for the Olympic Games AND a summit in February   , you should probably explore  who will be in charge of Russia in that period  ,

 for example Medvedev mounted a very brisk response to some unrest in Georgia  a while back  , and Kazakhstan  was a very nice practice run for a brisk international response  , if one was needed in the near future

  unlike the US and UK ,  the Russian Parliament is made up of about 80% intelligence agency officers ( GRU , KGB , etc etc etc ) ( and Dead Hand is activated  ensuring an automated  nuclear counter-strike  .. so no decision needed there )


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## wayneL (20 January 2022)

Long Uranium and potassium iodide.


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## divs4ever (20 January 2022)

uranium ??

 since Russia China , and possibly North Korea  have hyper-sonic  systems ( the Chinese vehicles were NOT described as missiles by the Chinese )  , one might expect a more efficient payload , especially if North Korea  has created  a mini-nuke weapon ( less than critical-mass device )

 now sure China and Russia  have gone different paths towards more  nuclear nuclear power generation ( and sales of that technology )

 but there is every chance Russia has a big enough nuclear arsenal  to achieve it's goals already  , and wouldn't China prefer to invade any captured territory ( ditto for the US and EU  ) Russia seems to be alone in the major powers  that doesn't need to conquer for more resources or agricultural land , 

 i see uranium  becoming more acceptable in ( a real ) peacetime as demand for power generation grows ( and most other 'clean technologies ' having  flaws  that restrict then from baseline supply  , unless battery storage  makes a quantum leap )

 BUT war has always been the successful solution to Western financial crises ( distract  until folks forget are the mess governments created  and loot the vanquished )


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## Smurf1976 (20 January 2022)

divs4ever said:


> war has always been the successful solution to Western financial crises



"It feeds the rich while it buries the poor"

That's a line from a Guns N' Roses song but over 30 years later still very true unfortunately.


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## divs4ever (20 January 2022)

wasn't a huge Guns'N'Roses  fan  despite    being a metalhead 

 but yes there is amazing insights  mixed in with the music 

 cheers


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## Smurf1976 (20 January 2022)

basilio said:


> What implications are there for investment markets ? (Greggles observations in Russian Aggression thread)



Oil and gas are the most obvious but not the only ones.

Russia is the second largest producer of both oil and gas globally. It's the largest exporter or gas (by pipeline + as LNG) to other countries and the second largest exporter of oil.

Russia's also the sixth largest producer and third largest exporter of coal.

Russia's also a leading producer of  natural diamonds, gold, iron ore, nickel (10% of world production), platinum (largest producer globally), silver.....

That situation with mineral production and exports does mean that Russia has many other countries, those reliant on importing from Russia, over the proverbial barrel. All Russia need do in order to cripple them is nothing at all. Just down tools and stop selling whatever mineral and that stuffs up those who rely on imports. Oil and gas especially but the others too.

That creates a very different dynamic to conflicts where others can impose sanctions etc with little cost to themselves.

In terms of financials, well it's at least possible that there's some disruption to the supply of one or more of these things either as an intentional action of itself or as a consequence of conflict. A lot there will likely depend on how the West reacts and how Russia chooses to react to that reaction.


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## noirua (24 January 2022)

The gold price is holding up very well and the GB£ is falling: Copper is a bit more uncertain. The mining sector is generally weak as markets prepare for Putins' advance into part of the Ukraine. Then the installation of a puppet government.
Biden the Weak, has all but capitulated to giving up part of the Ukraine.
Next an agreement to move the Ukraine forces back and let the Russian troops move in peacefully.
Russia has to move soon as the thaw will arrive and his tanks and vehicles will be bogged down.
Maybe Biden prays to god on high to bring the thaw a month earlier - unfortunately Biden it is close to check mate to Putin.​


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## Garpal Gumnut (24 January 2022)

basilio said:


> The risk of Russian invasion of Ukraine is now approaching certainty.
> 
> What implications are there for investment  markets ? (Greggles observations in Russian Aggression thread)
> 
> ...



Platinum.

From memory South Africa, Zimbabwe and Russia are main producers.

gg


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## JohnDe (24 January 2022)

Poland all over again?


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## bluekelah (25 January 2022)

Russia will probably annex Ukraine as the ancient Russian motherland is Kiev and guess who fancies himself as a Tsar


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## Garpal Gumnut (25 January 2022)

The Foreign Affairs Committee at the Hotel last night met to decide on our reaction to Russia threatening to invade the Ukraine. 

It decided that it is none of our business. 

Admittedly the committee is heavily weighted with retired wharfies and commos, but that is now the hotel patrons' official position. 

The Secretary has informed the Russian and US embassies via telex. 

gg


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## noirua (26 January 2022)




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## divs4ever (26 January 2022)

bluekelah said:


> Russia will probably annex Ukraine as the ancient Russian motherland is Kiev and guess who fancies himself as a Tsar



 i suspect not , Ukraine is a useful drain on NATO resources , and since Ukraine has waning  gas supplies  of it's own  , add in the aging infrastructure ( especially  in the gas pipeline from Russia to Europe  an important part of the Ukraine income )

 Russia hasn't rushed to re-incorporate Belarus ( where Belarus might be more likely to embrace than resist ) 

 check your maps Russia is a HUGE landmass  and still under-explored ( mineral-wise )  remember Russia also sold Alaska to the US many decades ago  , and considering the Eastern Ukraine rebel areas  are the main manufacturing areas ( including for tank chassis ) i am mildly  surprised the rebel areas  haven't just moved the Russian border west a bit by themselves  

 ALSO Russia has a court case in England over the loan default by Ukraine that it has made no attempt to repay  , issued in 2013 when it was still a Russian ally  , one might wonder how the Ukraine is funding that court case 

 i would be surprised if Putin desires to control  another failed state ( the weather in Iraq is so much better an Iraq  has gas , oil  in abundance , i would be liking Iraq  right next door to friendly Iran  over the Ukraine )

 AND Russia and China could easily come to some sharing agreement with under-explored Afghanistan ,  strengthened that relationship


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## divs4ever (26 January 2022)

ALSO the current Ukraine Government is strongly considering conscripting women into military service  to bolster the male conscripts ( because even the police  walked away from their jobs )

 PS why would Russia invade in Winter  , when a gas pipeline failure do the same task cheaper ( than even sanctions )


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## divs4ever (26 January 2022)

now there are some that call Putin  Mr. 5 Percent , because that is what he ( allegedly ) gets from every worth-while business activity  in Russia


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## Dona Ferentes (26 January 2022)

Smurf1976 said:


> Oil and gas are the most obvious but not the only ones.



and the black soils of eastern Ukraine are the source of much exported wheat. 

*








						With 'Europe's bread basket' in the firing line, Australian farmers may need to step up
					

Eastern Ukraine produces a huge chunk of the world's wheat and corn, but now it's under threat from one of the world's biggest militaries. So what does that mean for our farmers?




					www.abc.net.au
				



*


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## divs4ever (26 January 2022)

Dona Ferentes said:


> and the black soils of eastern Ukraine are the source of much exported wheat.
> 
> *
> 
> ...



 but there is a global fertilizer shortage , i haven't heard any gossip that the Ukraine is so perfect it doesn't need fertilizers and pesticides to grow crops  .. and BTW if the Ukraine keeps on conscripting there will only be children left to work the farms 

 and BTW the Eastern areas appear to  be the more Russia -friendly areas 









						Ukraine Maps & Facts
					

Physical map of Ukraine showing major cities, terrain, national parks, rivers, and surrounding countries with international borders and outline maps. Key facts about Ukraine.




					www.worldatlas.com


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## divs4ever (26 January 2022)

so apart from WES which fertilizer producer ( in Australia ) can step up production ??

and then we might also have our own logistics problems over here


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## Dona Ferentes (26 January 2022)

divs4ever said:


> and the Eastern areas appear to  be the more Russia -friendly areas



I take it back to the Scythians and Pontic Greek admix. Then the Slavic hordes in their eastward quests. Sure , Kievan Rus was the beginning of nation building but this quickly moved N and E. Cyril brought Christianity and an alphabet. Then of course Chinggis (Genghis) Khan brought trauma and pillage across the land, and other migrating steppe peoples passed through. An influx of Jews (for this was part of The Pale) and the Ruthenian identity during the Polish-Lithuanian years. The Hapsburgs asserted themselves in the west . Peasantry was predominant, the elites and landlords were mainly imports. And then there were the Crimean Tatars, and their Khanate. Still struggling for an identity, 19th C nationalism and urbanisation were there in the mix, but so was Russian desire for a warm water port. Sebastopol? Balaclava? Industrial development saw Russians move into the Donetsk in big numbers. Come the 1917 revolution, the commies were well organised and took control. 
And how did that go? Not well, with forced collectivisation. Holodomor. Russification. WWII was messy. 

But Stalin drew the borders and ceded Crimea to Ukraine. Also, during entire USSR time, they held 3 seats at the UN, including Ukraine and Belorussia.


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## Garpal Gumnut (27 January 2022)

Dona Ferentes said:


> I take it back to the Scythians and Pontic Greek admix. Then the Slavic hordes in their eastward quests. Sure , Kievan Rus was the beginning of nation building but this quickly moved N and E. Cyril brought Christianity and an alphabet. Then of course Chinggis (Genghis) Khan brought trauma and pillage across the land, and other migrating steppe peoples passed through. An influx of Jews (for this was part of The Pale) and the Ruthenian identity during the Polish-Lithuanian years. The Hapsburgs asserted themselves in the west . Peasantry was predominant, the elites and landlords were mainly imports. And then there were the Crimean Tatars, and their Khanate. Still struggling for an identity, 19th C nationalism and urbanisation were there in the mix, but so was Russian desire for a warm water port. Sebastopol? Balaclava? Industrial development saw Russians move into the Donetsk in big numbers. Come the 1917 revolution, the commies were well organised and took control.
> And how did that go? Not well, with forced collectivisation. Holodomor. Russification. WWII was messy.
> 
> But Stalin drew the borders and ceded Crimea to Ukraine. Also, during entire USSR time, they held 3 seats at the UN, including Ukraine and Belorussia.



As you say, it is not uncomplicated. 

History is written by the victors and who knows what the truth is. 

The only experience I look forward to in continental Europe east of Alsace is to walk through the Brandenburg Gate in Berlin late in a northern autumn of an afternoon from West to East. I will savour that cold wind that many who thought to conquer Russia from Napoleon to Hitler would have felt on looking back in ignominy in their failure. 

Ukraine will stay in the Russian orbit no matter what the Daily Mail says when it is looking for a headline.

gg


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## Jeda (27 January 2022)

Russion leadershiop know the art of the game that the US thought they knew


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## divs4ever (27 January 2022)

the current theory is Russia must invade ( if it does ) in Winter  as the frozen ground will support the heavy armour 

 and Spring will make the ground too mushy 

 problem one Russians live a little North of the Ukraine ( and even controlled it for a while )

 they have fought Napoleon and Nazi Germany  in the Winter  , so know precisely the problems an attacking army faces 

 problem two  , you can bet the Russians  have vehicle modifications  for swampy/mushy ground  ( if the old farm  excavator could cope , i bet the Russians will ALSO )

 problem three  , Russia has huge transport planes ( and helicopters ) i bet they could fly the tanks and missile batteries right to the outskirts of any city they choose to flatten 

 Russia has already annexed Crimea  , does it really want anything else ( apart from the money the Ukraine defaulted on  in 2014 )


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## noirua (30 January 2022)

Another video highlights 12 Russian Pantsir-S anti-aircraft missile systems to Belarus ostensibly for joint military exercises.

Ukraine now estimates Russia’s manpower is up to 130,000, with the US claiming it has sufficient firepower to attempt a partial or complete invasion of Ukraine.

Ukrainian Defence Minister Oleksiy Reznikov said: ”Now we are observing units that include some 112,000 people, and it's about 130,000 with the naval and aviation components.

29 January 2022


			Russia needs just '48 hours to invade Ukraine' warns Putin ally as troops seen training


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## noirua (31 January 2022)

Mr Boulegue, a Research Fellow with the London-based think tank's Russia and Eurasia Programme, was speaking at a time of rising tensions, with more than 100,000 Russian troops located close to the Ukrainian border. Many analysts have suggested it is just a question of time before Mr Putin green-lights military action - and while Mr Boulegue refused to give an unequivocal answer, he nevertheless struck a pessimistic note.
30 January 2022


			‘Definitely on the table' Warning as Putin ‘targets NATO' with full-blown Ukraine invasion
		

​


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## noirua (31 January 2022)

It is my guess that Putin is weighing up just how far he can afford to move troops into the Ukraine and which parts. He knows Europe as the EU is too weak and fragmented, the UK power wise is a joke but many oligarchs hold assets in London and the rest of the UK, and America is not really over bothered if Russia take over only part of the Ukraine. Putin knows that after the Afghanistan debacle the United States will not want to move American troops into a similar situation. Biden has significant strength despite leading up front Zimmer frame and all.


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## noirua (2 February 2022)

Ukraine-Russia crisis: How soon might a war be and what would it look like? | CNN
					

The Ukraine crisis is the classic case of a known unknown: We know that we don't know what Russian President Vladimir Putin intends to do as he amasses troops on the Ukrainian border.




					edition.cnn.com


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## noirua (3 February 2022)

Putin speaks out! Russia issues chilling warning as world on brink of war 'It's clear now'


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## noirua (3 February 2022)

PM call with President Putin of Russia: 2 February 2022
					

Prime Minister Boris Johnson spoke to Russian President Vladimir Putin.




					www.gov.uk


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## noirua (3 February 2022)

British diplomacy is 'worthless'  says Russia's deputy UN ambassador
					

Tensions continue to rise between Russia and Ukraine, with the former hitting out at the British involvement in talks, plus Boris Johnson's recent visit to Kyiv.




					news.sky.com


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## Garpal Gumnut (3 February 2022)

A full on invasion of “Ethnic Ukraine “ is unlikely.

An annexation of Donblast in to Russia more likely will satisfy Putin and the West.

gg


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## Dona Ferentes (3 February 2022)

Garpal Gumnut said:


> A full-on invasion of “Ethnic Ukraine “ is unlikely



But if push comes to shove, they will inflict economic damage, destroying infrastructure away from the fault lines.

Donetsk and Luhansk, the two eastern regions are ethnically majority Russian, anyway, and linguistically aligned. But there is a polyglot nature, of the two entwined communities throughout. The history is ever thus. (read up on Taras Bulba to see how fragmented the politics can get!). The Russian Orbit indeed.



> The _Donetsk_ People's Republic and the _Luhansk_ People's Republic declared independence from Ukraine following an unofficial status referendum in May 2014.




... and don't mention ongoing sores like _Transnistria _(not to be confused with Trans-Dnieper), a member of the  *Community for Democracy and Rights of Nations* ( Сообщество за демократию и права народов), also commonly known as the *Commonwealth of Unrecognized States.*


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## againsthegrain (3 February 2022)

Some might say Taras Bulba is Russian propaganda, actually all those not Russian portrayed in the film might say that. But it does show the politics, just keep in mind it is presented and approved from the Russian version of history


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## Garpal Gumnut (3 February 2022)

againsthegrain said:


> Some might say Taras Bulba is Russian propaganda, actually all those not Russian portrayed in the film might say that. But it does show the politics, just keep in mind it is presented and approved from the Russian version of history



The victors write the history.

gg


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## noirua (5 February 2022)

Russia and China join hands so China gets Taiwan and Russia Ukraine. Both may move simultaneously as the west is forced to watch. 


			Putin and Xi say there are 'no limits' to their nations' friendship amid rising tensions with West


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## Dona Ferentes (5 February 2022)

The Patriarch Kirill, head of Russian orthodox church, in 2012. The $30,000 Breguet watch ... now you see it, now you don't.

They've come a long way. With Stalin, it was people that disappeared from the record.


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## JohnDe (5 February 2022)

noirua said:


> Russia and China join hands so China gets Taiwan and Russia Ukraine. Both may move simultaneously as the west is forced to watch.
> 
> 
> Putin and Xi say there are 'no limits' to their nations' friendship amid rising tensions with West



Russia moves first by stealth and deception. Western countries put sanctions on Russia but can’t hurt themselves so leave commodities alone, gas, oil & minerals keep Russian economy propped up. No military action against Russia.
China accepts the West’s tepid response as a signal of nations unable to rally their constituents to follow through with the defense packs agreed to after the last world war. China start increasing their military buildup around Taiwan in preparation of following Russia’s lead.

The West is weakened to the point that fear creates further nationalism and isolation.

Russia & China become the dominant world power.

That’s how it could go if our governments, with the support of the people, don’t start working together on a solution.


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## divs4ever (5 February 2022)

but our governments don't want use working TOGETHER , they only want YES men and minions  , and because of that they will still fall 

 China and Russia  could easily just rattle sabres until most of the West implodes from greed stupidity and corruption


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## JohnDe (5 February 2022)

divs4ever said:


> but our governments don't want use working TOGETHER , they only want YES men and minions  , and because of that they will still fall
> 
> China and Russia  could easily just rattle sabres until most of the West implodes from greed stupidity and corruption




Australia and the Australian government have done well to stand up to a bully, but we’re only small fish on our own.


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## divs4ever (6 February 2022)

so is this the time to mention  our immigration policy  ??

 and the international students that get to stay in Australia 

 not to  mention buy a property  to live-in for now .. etc etc 

 now i don't hate the Chinese  but it is bloody hard to tell the Taiwanese , Hong Kong citizens and the mainlanders   , that is a bloody lot of citizens to vet in the event of hostilities 

 now all this seems dumb to me IF you are concerned about a potential war 

 BTW  how many business sightseeing trips  have we given the Chinese in the last 5 years   ( we did the same for the Japanese prior to WW2  )


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## Stockbailx (6 February 2022)

_Past conflicts show a strong correlation between high oil prices and Russia’s willingness to invade its neighbours._

But forget diplomacy, for the time being, Putin's got none; nuke Russia, Putin as Target One...


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## Investoradam (6 February 2022)

Stockybailz said:


> _Past conflicts show a strong correlation between high oil prices and Russia’s willingness to invade its neighbours._
> 
> But forget diplomacy, for the time being, Putin's got none; nuke Russia, Putin as Target One...
> 
> View attachment 137102



Rubbish!
To much time spent reading the useless lying media


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## Investoradam (6 February 2022)

Reason why the western leaders hate Putin and russia he doesn’t want Russia to be a laughing stock like the west has become. Corrupt degenerate filth









						Putin Issues International Arrest Warrant for Rothschild & Soros
					

Putin Issues Arrest Warrant for Rothschild & Soros. While it sounds good in theory, there is no evidence to support this story.



					tacticalinvestor.com
				









						Vladimir Putin to George Soros: Thank God we kicked you out of Russia – VT  | Alternative Foreign Policy Media
					






					www.veteranstoday.com
				












						How Russia has come to loathe the West
					

In the quarter century of post-Soviet development, resentment towards the West has been accumulating to a broad, genuine and raw hatred




					ecfr.eu


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## againsthegrain (6 February 2022)

Investoradam said:


> Reason why the western leaders hate Putin and russia he doesn’t want Russia to be a laughing stock like the west has become. Corrupt degenerate filth
> 
> 
> 
> ...




LOL Putin not corrupt?
Homeboy has around 80-90% of what all the common Russians have all together


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## Investoradam (7 February 2022)

againsthegrain said:


> LOL Putin not corrupt?
> Homeboy has around 80-90% of what all the common Russians have all together



Never said he wasn’t
Just saying he threw the Rothschilds and all the other Zionist bankers out of RussiaS
He doesn’t wasn’t in on this globalist Ponzi scheme

but go on continue reading your western leftists rag pieces and believing the world will end if we don’t act on climate change. The jabs are working a charm and lock downs and masks are the best way to combat this virus that a man whom ate a bat in wuhan!


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## againsthegrain (7 February 2022)

Investoradam said:


> but go on continue reading your western leftists rag pieces and believing the world will end if we don’t act on climate change.....




Im not into that crap


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## noirua (8 February 2022)

Russia has enough troops ready to take Kyiv, says former Ukraine defence chief
					

White House believes Moscow has amassed at least 70% of firepower needed for mid-February invasion




					www.irishtimes.com
				



They said the Russian army had now positioned 83 “battalion tactical groups” near Ukraine, each with between 750 and 1,000 soldiers. The figure has risen from 60 battalion groups two weeks ago, they added.


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## noirua (8 February 2022)

Ukraine crisis: Macron heads for talks with Putin, while Scholz and Biden meet in DC – live coverage​


			Ukraine crisis: Macron heads for talks with Putin, while Scholz and Biden meet in DC – live coverage


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## divs4ever (8 February 2022)

againsthegrain said:


> LOL Putin not corrupt?
> Homeboy has around 80-90% of what all the common Russians have all together



 and the difference between Russia and several Western nations  is ??

( he is the leader , not just some shadowy business mogul , texting various politicians/government officials ) )


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## divs4ever (8 February 2022)

noirua said:


> Ukraine crisis: Macron heads for talks with Putin, while Scholz and Biden meet in DC – live coverage​
> 
> 
> Ukraine crisis: Macron heads for talks with Putin, while Scholz and Biden meet in DC – live coverage




 but .. but isn't Putin in China , currently  .. he usually sells nuclear power plants ( mini-nukes ) to developing nations  during events like the Olympics


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## Dona Ferentes (8 February 2022)

Macron and Putin




Am I getting through to you?


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## Dona Ferentes (11 February 2022)

I like a bit of commentary, even if the contributors are the B list academics and former intimates



> The difference in the scale of the ambitions of China and Russia reflects the difference in their economic potential. Russia’s economy is now roughly the size of Italy’s. Moscow simply does not have the wealth to sustain a bid for global supremacy. By contrast, China is now, by some measures, the world’s largest economy. It is also the world’s largest manufacturer and exporter. Its population of 1.4 billion people is roughly 10 times that of Russia. As a result, it is realistic for China to aspire to be the most powerful country in the world.
> 
> But while the differences in the economic potential of Russia and China make Xi ultimately more ambitious than Putin, in the short term it also makes him more cautious. There is something of a *gambler’s desperation* in Putin’s willingness to use military force to try to change the balance of power in Europe...



Gideon Rachman in _The Economist









						New world order: Russia and China’s plans take shape
					

For Moscow and Beijing, the Ukraine crisis is part of a struggle to reduce American power and make the world safe for autocrats.




					www.afr.com
				



_


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## divs4ever (11 February 2022)

Russia has been invaded before   several times  most  of Europe couldn't resist an ambitious Germany 

 has Europe to desire to fight a war of attrition ( which is how Russia fights  .. cheap lower tech weapons that keep working and working )

 REMEMBER  Russia is an important part of the EU energy  supply   a quick shutdown of the gas pipelines ... ( and stop exporting aluminum , diamonds , wheat  , and a few other basic resources  )


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## sptrawler (11 February 2022)

If will be interesting if Russia make a move on Ukraine and China make a move on Taiwan at the same time.
Similar to WW2 with Germany and Japan, interesting times, could take covid off the front page.
Trump did tell the EU, that it hasnt been pulling its weight, regards mitary spending.


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## JohnDe (11 February 2022)

Russia is not going to war, they are playing the game that they are best at - chess. The current US leadership is falling for it, and so are many internet experts.


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## divs4ever (12 February 2022)

JohnDe said:


> Russia is not going to war, they are playing the game that they are best at - chess. The current US leadership is falling for it, and so are many internet experts.



 but the Western financial system is DESPERATE for a major distraction ( while they untangle the mess they are in )

 and SOME are very practiced  at false flags  , also if you believe  some of the less publicized  Putin utterances over the last 4 years  , Russia is very ready to switch to war-time mode ( Dead Hand is activated  AND Putin has warned all manufacturers to be able to swap to  war needs productions at 24 hours notice  and both of these were roughly two years back )

 and when you can't believe your  own media  any more than the 'enemy media '  well things could go crazy


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## noirua (13 February 2022)

Russian Minister a few hours ago. It is not our plan to invade Ukraine it is to repatriate Ukraine.


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## divs4ever (13 February 2022)

repatriate it ??

 it ( Ukraine ) is an unmitigated debt pig   now it the  Russian ethnic ( and Russia-friendly folks ) wanted to shift the Russian border westward a little  OR form is own independent nation-state  that might be an interesting compromise 

 now sure that would leave most of Ukraine as a failed state , but that is what the US , IMF and NATO wanted  it has been an ongoing crime-scene  since 2014  before 2013 it was a Russian problem ( and they were loaning it cash and support )

 now the West instigated unrest  so now it is the West's problem


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## noirua (13 February 2022)

What is the Minsk agreement and is it a way out of Ukraine crisis?
					

As world leaders scramble to find a diplomatic solution over the ongoing Russia-Ukraine tensions, talk has turned to the 2015 Minsk Agreement as a possible way out of the crisis.




					edition.cnn.com


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## Logique2 (13 February 2022)

JohnDe said:


> Russia is not going to war, they are playing the game that they are best at - chess. The current US leadership is falling for it, and so are many internet experts.



Not far wrong I'm guessing.
As I've said elsewhere, JFK was considered a hero for hunting the Soviets missiles out of Cuba.
Ukraine borders Russia, and wants to join NATO.


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## divs4ever (13 February 2022)

i am almost tempted  to urge Russia to let the Ukraine  join NATO and drag NATO into an even worse state of dysfunction  .. oh  and the EU will have to rush in and save the Ukraine economy to boot  dragging the Fortress Europe into deeper despair 

 AND Russia can happily distance itself  from the responsibility  of the aging gas-line


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## JohnDe (13 February 2022)

Watch to the end


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## Garpal Gumnut (13 February 2022)

While not in any way endorsing Vladimir Vladimirovich's poor record on human rights many overlook the long term consequences of leaving Ukraine afloat between East and West.

Ukraine has in the past applied to join NATO.

Purely from first military principles it would be disastrous for Russia to have NATO literally "up its a*se" leaving no quick avenue for it to protect its only sea opening at Sevastopol to the Black Sea and on to the Mediterranean. The Motherland and its vassal/slave state Belarus would prefer to just head straight south. ( look at a map ). 

It is only about 500k from the north eastern suburbs of Kyiv to the south western suburbs of Moscow. 

I wonder if the cousins at Langley are aware of this proximity as they were all over the place with The Donald and now they have Ole Joe.

Anyways nobody likes war, particularly soldiers, so an outbreak of hostilities is unlikely particularly with an early northern spring tipped to make the going very muddy and sticky.

There will not be peace with Ukraine in the western orbit. Perhaps some diplomacy and then a return to sabre rattling next northern winter.

Meanwhile oil and gas and gold will be bullish. 

gg


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## Garpal Gumnut (13 February 2022)

Garpal Gumnut said:


> While not in any way endorsing Vladimir Vladimirovich's poor record on human rights many overlook the long term consequences of leaving Ukraine afloat between East and West.
> 
> Ukraine has in the past applied to join NATO.
> 
> ...



Just a map showing the German advance through Ukraine and in to Russia in 1942 to explain my post above further. 




gg


----------



## Garpal Gumnut (14 February 2022)

There are some interesting military and ethnic maps and opinions on the "Where is gold heading thread" for anyone interested. 

Gold and war and maps are intimately connected. 

gg


----------



## againsthegrain (14 February 2022)

I am just another armchair bandit, but I think there will be no war,  and on the slim chance there is, two losers will emerge.
I can only look back to Grozny and Kabul, both sides took heavy loses.

Ukraine has a similarity with Chechnia where both countries were part or Ussr and training under the old Soviets. Yeah for Ua more time has passed but they will employ and understand Russian tactics.

When you are defending your homeland it is a different game than invading in the name of a Dictator.

The slavic soul has it deep-rooted to defend the homeland due to no peace in its history.


----------



## Garpal Gumnut (14 February 2022)

Just in relation to possibles. 

Between Yalta and Kremenchuts'ke Reservoir the ground I am told is now still quite hard. 

Rain has started in Kyiv and slush may result within the next few weeks. So if there is to be an advance from Russia it will be the Southern route. 




gg


----------



## InsvestoBoy (14 February 2022)

Garpal Gumnut said:


> very muddy and sticky.




Thank goodness for TikTok





I think if you click you can see a couple more muddy videos.

Great reminder of the difference between the blather posted by warmongers and the reality on the ground of every single war, ever.

Nobody knows what will happen but I do not think there will be a war. But if there is, this is the song for it.


----------



## Garpal Gumnut (14 February 2022)

InsvestoBoy said:


> Thank goodness for TikTok
> 
> 
> 
> ...




Got it in one.

Returned soldiers and servicemen/women are never warry.

Civilians caught up in it neither. It sells newspapers and Harvey Norman sh*ite furniture on TV.

gg


----------



## sptrawler (14 February 2022)

Garpal Gumnut said:


> Anyways nobody likes war, particularly soldiers, so an outbreak of hostilities is unlikely particularly with an early northern spring tipped to make the going very muddy and sticky.
> 
> 
> gg



I wonder if the politicians have thought about that problem GG, getting soldiers to fight? These days I think it would be a difficult task in Australia's case. 
It was only a couple of weeks a go the cricket team got rid of the coach, because he had them on edge and was a disciplinarian.  Imagine the backlash if you were asking them to be shot at, I don't think it would be an easy call in Australia's case.
Interesting times IMO.


----------



## Garpal Gumnut (14 February 2022)

sptrawler said:


> I wonder if the politicians have thought about that problem GG, getting soldiers to fight? These days I think it would be a difficult task in Australia's case.
> It was only a couple of weeks a go the cricket team got rid of the coach, because he had them on edge and was a disciplinarian.  Imagine the backlash if you were asking them to be shot at, I don't think it would be an easy call in Australia's case.
> Interesting times IMO.



Well living in Townsville I probably see more soldiers about than many on ASF. 

Unlike in my day most are more muscled, more articulate, and better educated and trained than in my day from speaking to them. They are realistic about being deployed and I believe they would do a good rotation if ordered.

Most forces overseas prefer to be co-located with Aussies if that helps.

gg


----------



## divs4ever (14 February 2022)

InsvestoBoy said:


> Thank goodness for TikTok
> 
> 
> 
> ...




 so you haven't seen the Russian tanks  fitted with screws ( or worm-drive ??)  , sure they haven't got thousands of THEM , you can bet the Russians have  other strategies  for soft ground as well  , after all they have lived and fought in such conditions for nearly 100 years ( using tanks )

 HOWEVER  i cannot see where the gain is  for Russia by invading , even if there was trivial resistance  , the place is a financial wreck  and they already owe Russia billions in a disputed loan


----------



## divs4ever (14 February 2022)

BTW  the Russians also have some BIG helicopters  ( if they really need to get something heavy somewhere )


----------



## Jeda (14 February 2022)

divs4ever said:


> so you haven't seen the Russian tanks  fitted with screws ( or worm-drive ??)  , sure they haven't got thousands of THEM , you can bet the Russians have  other strategies  for soft ground as well  , after all they have lived and fought in such conditions for nearly 100 years ( using tanks )
> 
> HOWEVER  i cannot see where the gain is  for Russia by invading , even if there was trivial resistance  , the place is a financial wreck  and they already owe Russia billions in a disputed loan




russia's best kept secret no one has seen one since the 60's  ✌️


----------



## JohnDe (14 February 2022)




----------



## divs4ever (14 February 2022)

Jeda said:


> russia's best kept secret no one has seen one since the 60's  ✌️
> 
> View attachment 137537



 they have newer models  with a real tank built on top 

 not full of hi-tech mind you , but Russia veers to basic and functional


----------



## Jeda (14 February 2022)

yeah they've been in storage since 1969 waiting for more mud. look at the fun these guys had









						Russians Get T-90 Tank Stuck in the Mud
					

During opening winter military exercises in Alabino (Moscow), a T-90 tank drives through a deep puddle of mud and gets firmly stuck. The only way to free it was to bring in another T-90 and pull it out.




					www.military.com


----------



## Dona Ferentes (14 February 2022)

Jeda said:


> russia's best kept secret no one has seen one since the 60's  ✌️



When a Soviet MiG-25 (or Foxbat) came into Western hands through the defection of the pilot, in 1976, the initial assumption was that they were technologically behind, because of vacuum tube rather than solid-state electronics. This was quickly altered when there was a realisation the avionics were robust and would continue to operate; the use of vacuum tubes made the aircraft's systems resistant to an electromagnetic pulse, for example, after a nuclear blast.


----------



## InsvestoBoy (14 February 2022)

divs4ever said:


> so you haven't seen the Russian tanks  fitted with screws ( or worm-drive ??)  , sure they haven't got thousands of THEM , you can bet the Russians have  other strategies  for soft ground as well  , after all they have lived and fought in such conditions for nearly 100 years ( using tanks )




Relax mate


----------



## noirua (15 February 2022)

Ukraine: Russia says it is withdrawing some troops from the Ukraine border


			https://twitter.com/i/events/1483255084750282753


----------



## frugal.rock (15 February 2022)

If Russia did go on with it, is there any benefit to the US ?
They seem to be a little too involved on the public stage on the matter.


----------



## moXJO (15 February 2022)

frugal.rock said:


> If Russia did go on with it, is there any benefit to the US ?
> They seem to be a little too involved on the public stage on the matter.



Biden is hoping for a bump in the polls. Rare that a government gets  voted out during such a time.


----------



## Garpal Gumnut (16 February 2022)

Vladimir Putin is uncomfortable with potentially having NATO troops based 5-600 km from Moscow in Eastern Ukraine. 

He will naturally have more skin in this game than Joe Biden and the European leaders. 

Already he has commanded world attention and had Western leaders flying to Moscow.

The pressure will not let up from the Russian side and a successful  invasion of Ukraine is always on the cards.

gg


----------



## Jeda (16 February 2022)

"A war of chocice"


----------



## Logique2 (16 February 2022)

Interesting piece in the _Quadrant_ yesterday:

"*Russia’s Ultimatum and the Future of a Self-Inducing Conflict*"
15th February 2022 ;  By: Anton Bendarzsevszkij
_Quadrant Online_:  https://quadrant.org.au/opinion/qed...m-and-the-future-of-a-self-inducing-conflict/

_"...Military conflict is not in Moscow’s interests - a war with Ukraine would certainly cause enormous casualties on 
both sides and further damage the already stagnant Russian economy, not to mention bringing tougher Western sanctions than ever before...
...So, if there is no compromise between the West and Russia, the most likely scenario would be another escalation - some kind of 
Russian response due to the lack of Western guarantees...

...In short, no war, but no peace either."  _

So get talking diplomats.


----------



## Garpal Gumnut (16 February 2022)

Logique2 said:


> Interesting piece in the _Quadrant_ yesterday:
> 
> "*Russia’s Ultimatum and the Future of a Self-Inducing Conflict*"
> 15th February 2022 ;  By: Anton Bendarzsevszkij
> ...



I haven't read Quadrant for a while, they usually have good commentary. 

Put simply Russia is not going to agree to the status quo. 

Ukraine, sitting as it is like a dog's ball under Russia, is a state I would not tolerate being a member of NATO if I were Putin. 

It is similar to the Cuba crisis where Russia wanted warheads close to the US mainland. Kennedy objected and for the American Empire his call was correct. 

Putin is now objecting for the Russian Empire and has precedent on his side. 

Similarly from a military point of view, and remembering that war is just another form of diplomacy, ( Von Clausewitz ) , Ukraine needs in Russian eyes a rapprochement with Moscow or occupation and change of leadership. 



gg


----------



## Logique2 (16 February 2022)

"_Ukraine...a state I would not tolerate being a member of NATO if I were Putin_....GG"

A point well made GG.  And alluded to by no less an identity than Nigel Farage (that well known left-wing appeaser), on a domestic media outlet last night.

The US is arming Ukraine. What is Putin supposed to do?  Make Biden, Johnson and Morrison look like strong leaders?

Oh well it could be worse, we could be in Canada and having PM Justin Tr. garnisheeing our bank accounts..


----------



## noirua (17 February 2022)

Russia ends its military drills in Crimea and Moscow has now said that its soldiers were returning to their garrison. The announcement comes a day after Russia had earlier announced a first troop pullback from Ukraine's borders.


----------



## frugal.rock (18 February 2022)




----------



## Gunnerguy (20 February 2022)

Here’s a stupid idea ......

‘Ukraine is an independent country, we like them, you attack Ukraine and I bomb Moscow’

outside the box. ...... yes but why not.  ?


----------



## Craton (20 February 2022)

Gunnerguy said:


> Here’s a stupid idea ......
> 
> ‘Ukraine is an independent country, we like them, you attack Ukraine and I bomb Moscow’
> 
> outside the box. ...... yes but why not.  ?



IMHO, I'd reckon that was always on the cards. Besides, nothing like a war to line the pockets eh?
Putin playing poker, again, seeing if we'd call his bluff. Looks like he's doing some more huffing and puffing...

Russia launches hypersonic missiles as part of nuclear drills


----------



## StockyGuy (20 February 2022)

Even without any shot being fired, the utter barbarity of a huge nuked-up nation encircling it like Israelites marching around walls of Jericho has gotta be bad long term for Ukraine.  There's already been ongoing brain drain from eastern Europe after Communism, but this threat level can hardly be conducive to those with good qualifications or prospects wanting to stick around, raise kids there and otherwise build up Ukraine.  Russia, stop bullying your little brother!


----------



## divs4ever (20 February 2022)

a


Gunnerguy said:


> Here’s a stupid idea ......
> 
> ‘Ukraine is an independent country, we like them, you attack Ukraine and I bomb Moscow’
> 
> outside the box. ...... yes but why not.  ?



after the Gulf of Tonkin 

 or maybe those Iraqi WMDs 

 who do you believe 

 after all we are talking about Australia lives likely to be risked , when there is little to gain ( for most Australians  , maybe if we went in to destroy the wheat crop  we can sell more wheat to Europe ( at a better price )

 much like  saving those East Timor oil/gas resources for Woodside  , is that the reputation Australia wants


----------



## divs4ever (20 February 2022)

StockyGuy said:


> Even without any shot being fired, the utter barbarity of a huge nuked-up nation encircling it like Israelites marching around walls of Jericho has gotta be bad long term for Ukraine.  There's already been ongoing brain drain from eastern Europe after Communism, but this threat level can hardly be conducive to those with good qualifications or prospects wanting to stick around, raise kids there and otherwise build up Ukraine.  Russia, stop bullying your little brother!



 i am guessing Zekenski will be rolled by a civil  war   , and it won't be the pro-Russians doing it ( they control to little territory )


----------



## JohnDe (20 February 2022)

Gunnerguy said:


> Here’s a stupid idea ......
> 
> ‘Ukraine is an independent country, we like them, you attack Ukraine and I bomb Moscow’
> 
> outside the box. ...... yes but why not.  ?




You bomb Moscow, Putin shows off the Russian nuclear arsenal


----------



## Garpal Gumnut (20 February 2022)

Gunnerguy said:


> Here’s a stupid idea ......
> 
> ‘Ukraine is an independent country, we like them, you attack Ukraine and I bomb Moscow’
> 
> outside the box. ...... yes but why not.  ?



That is one reason why Putin will annex Ukraine.

If I were he, I would not want NATO within 600k of Moscow as would occur if the present course of NATO expansion occurred up to the Russian border. 

Nobody's going to bomb Moscow, nor Washington, nor Beijing. Unless it is the cousins from Saudi or Israel with a small "nutters" bomb.

gg


----------



## JohnDe (20 February 2022)

divs4ever said:


> who do you believe
> 
> after all we are talking about Australia lives likely to be risked , when there is little to gain ( for most Australians  , maybe if we went in to destroy the wheat crop  we can sell more wheat to Europe ( at a better price )
> 
> much like  saving those East Timor oil/gas resources for Woodside  , is that the reputation Australia wants




You reminded me of an old quote - "_We, too, born to freedom, and believing in freedom, are willing to fight to maintain freedom. We, and all others who believe as deeply as we do, would rather die on our feet than live on our knees._"

Interesting article in the Weekend Australian, I don't agree with all of it but there is sense in some of it.

"_More than 50 million people died in World War II. Would it have been better to let the Nazis rule Europe and Imperial Japan run Asia to avoid those deaths?_"

"_Ukraine, Taiwan are connected: we can’t show weakness over either
The two conflicts are intimately connected. While they have their differences, they share striking similarities, not least that they will have a big effect on Australian security._"



			https://www.theaustralian.com.au/inquirer/putins-ukraine-gamble-raises-the-danger-for-taiwan/news-story/9478ba0342a80630ffc102d5172518eb


----------



## againsthegrain (20 February 2022)

JohnDe said:


> You reminded me of an old quote - "_We, too, born to freedom, and believing in freedom, are willing to fight to maintain freedom. We, and all others who believe as deeply as we do, would rather die on our feet than live on our knees._"
> 
> Interesting article in the Weekend Australian, I don't agree with all of it but there is sense in some of it.
> 
> ...




Complex topic, apparently more died as a result of direct and indirect communism then ww2


----------



## divs4ever (20 February 2022)

againsthegrain said:


> Complex topic, apparently more died as a result of direct and indirect communism then ww2



 since WW2  probably  , since the start of  WW1  almost certainly


----------



## divs4ever (20 February 2022)

JohnDe said:


> You reminded me of an old quote - "_We, too, born to freedom, and believing in freedom, are willing to fight to maintain freedom. We, and all others who believe as deeply as we do, would rather die on our feet than live on our knees._"
> 
> Interesting article in the Weekend Australian, I don't agree with all of it but there is sense in some of it.
> 
> ...



Ukraine is a failed state  ,  i very much doubt the EU , NATO , US  will do any more than continue to use it as a laundromat 

 now Putin might be caught between loyalty to the ethnic Russians   and leaving it to become a poison pill to NATO , EU , IMF  , and Putin can be pragmatic  , some news reports show Russia busing out refugees ( and using trains as well as buses ) will ALL the ethnic Russians evacuate  and leave a trail of sabotage and traps  or resist with gusto  ( now they don't have to worry about family and friends )

 remember the US destabilized the Ukraine  back in 2013/2014 they WANTED this  , now they have their prize they had better chew like heck  , expect Russia to mothball the Ukrainian  gas pipeline ( claiming it is old and unsafe ) 

 Taiwan is it's own fortress , would Japan and South Korea  give material support if it is needed ( they are the key allies for Taiwan )


----------



## JohnDe (20 February 2022)

divs4ever said:


> Ukraine is a failed state  ,  i very much doubt the EU , NATO , US  will do any more than continue to use it as a laundromat
> 
> now Putin might be caught between loyalty to the ethnic Russians   and leaving it to become a poison pill to NATO , EU , IMF  , and Putin can be pragmatic  , some news reports show Russia busing out refugees ( and using trains as well as buses ) will ALL the ethnic Russians evacuate  and leave a trail of sabotage and traps  or resist with gusto  ( now they don't have to worry about family and friends )
> 
> ...





"_Ukraine is not Afghanistan. It is a proud nation with functioning institutions, rough democratic legitimacy and enough social cohesion to stand up for itself..._."  Putin's Ukraine gamble

"_Ukraine is not a failed state, as pro-Kremlin media often claim. It is not controlled by the US or NATO, nor by any other foreign government or organisation. However, Ukraine’s sovereignty and territorial integrity are violated by Russia's acts of armed aggression._" Recurring pro-Kremlin disinformation narratives about Ukrainian statehood



> Present-day Ukraine has been on the world map since 1991 when the Soviet Union disintegrated. It has elected six presidents since then and changed parties in government several times which illustrates political diversity and democratic dynamics even during economic hardship in the wake of Russian aggression in 2014. Ukraine's Western partners have been providing it with financial and technical assistance.
> 
> Even though it sustained economic hardships due to the recession in the 1990s, world financial crisis in 2008-2009, the occupation of Crimea and war in Donbas, Ukraine has managed to improve its economy, conduct necessary reforms, attract investments in construction, banking, financial, and other sectors of economy. Its GPD grew by 2-3% in 2016-2019 and, it is estimated, will return to growth again in 2021 after a 4% loss in 2020. A key milestone was the entry into force of the Deep and Comprehensive Free Trade Agreement between Ukraine and the EU, that simplifies access to markets and supports economic growth.
> 
> ...


----------



## divs4ever (20 February 2022)

JohnDe said:


> "_Ukraine is not Afghanistan. It is a proud nation with functioning institutions, rough democratic legitimacy and enough social cohesion to stand up for itself..._."  Putin's Ukraine gamble
> 
> "_Ukraine is not a failed state, as pro-Kremlin media often claim. It is not controlled by the US or NATO, nor by any other foreign government or organisation. However, Ukraine’s sovereignty and territorial integrity are violated by Russia's acts of armed aggression._" Recurring pro-Kremlin disinformation narratives about Ukrainian statehood



tell all that to Joe Biden .. he seems to think it is his cash cow  , the Brits think it is a crime scene , Putin is litigating over a loan given in 2013 , so he thinks it is a dead-beat 

 i wouldn't be surprised to find the Clintions were using it for arms-trafficking ( 2014 and now )

 i don't have to listen to the Kremlin  there were enough dots discovered in the Trump impeachment hearing  to show something monstrously illegal  was happening in 'liberated ' Ukraine , and that completely avoided human-trafficking  and using it as a training base for international mercenaries 

 BTW Afghanistan has a lot more to be proud of in history  , it isn't  called the 'graveyard  of empires ' as a ridicule  .. and may yet be the graveyard of the US as well  ( they will have to do something to push back China exploiting all those minerals .. that the West  needs )


----------



## Logique2 (20 February 2022)

Meanwhile, in the Peoples Republic of Canada,
it's good to see PM Trudeau cracking down on those misogynist, anti-vaccer, nazi trucker terrorists. A proportionate Trudeau use of state force is in play here..

Canadians killed in WWII fighting for democratic freedoms:  42,000 Canadian heroes, fighting for freedom. 

Yes this is the Canada they fought for..
michaelsmithnews.com/2022/02/despicable.html
Sunday, 20 February 2022


----------



## JohnDe (20 February 2022)

divs4ever said:


> tell all that to Joe Biden .. he seems to think it is his cash cow  , the Brits think it is a crime scene , Putin is litigating over a loan given in 2013 , so he thinks it is a dead-beat
> 
> i wouldn't be surprised to find the Clintions were using it for arms-trafficking ( 2014 and now )
> 
> ...




Yes, the X Files was a great show. Loved the fictional conspiracy theories, sad it ended. What number did you get to?


----------



## JohnDe (20 February 2022)

We’ve been saying it since the 90’s, but the previous generation are holding on too tight


----------



## divs4ever (20 February 2022)

JohnDe said:


> Yes, the X Files was a great show. Loved the fictional conspiracy theories, sad it ended. What number did you get to?



 hardly ever watched it  ( i was too busy working  ) however shared a house with a guy i suspect had a crush on Dana Scully 

 however interesting bits of truth find me anyway  ( whether using the internet or not )

 all you had to do was read between the lines of the Trump impeachment concerning the Javelin missiles  ( you didn't even need either Hunter Biden laptop )


----------



## divs4ever (20 February 2022)

JohnDe said:


> We’ve been saying it since the 90’s, but the previous generation are holding on too tight




 had  Holy Wars - Punishment Due ( by Megadeth ) more in mind  , but yes there have been plenty of warnings


----------



## noirua (21 February 2022)

Ukrainian Russian-backed rebels call to mobilize as Putin oversees nuclear drill
					

Leonid Pasechnik, leader of the self-proclaimed “Luhansk People’s Republic,” signed a decree calling for “full combat readiness.”




					www.nbcnews.com
				



Pro-Russian separatist leaders in eastern Ukraine ordered a full military mobilization Saturday, amid a spike in violence that has heightened fears that Moscow is planning to use an escalation in the conflict as a pretext to invade.
The evacuations come amid a spike in shelling in the area that has stoked fresh global alarm.


----------



## Stockbailx (21 February 2022)

Bit of a sticky situation, with reuters saying its a confused market in wall st, to put a damper on things; 
Moscow announced overnight 30,000 Russian troops would extend military exercises in Belarus that were originally scheduled to finish yesterday. Explosions were reported in parts of eastern Ukraine controlled by separatists. NATO said Russia’s decision to retain troops in Belarus was further evidence of Russian intent to invade.


----------



## Stockbailx (21 February 2022)




----------



## moXJO (21 February 2022)

Is this all just slight of hand. Any info on where Russia dark money is being filtered


----------



## waterbottle (21 February 2022)

David Martin of @CBSNews, a superb reporter I’ve known for decades and worked with at the original Newsweek for many years—and whom I trust totally—says #Putin has just ordered  #Russian forces to invade #Ukraine in its entirety, with reserve units following to run an occupation.


From


----------



## frugal.rock (21 February 2022)

Fake news/ tweet above?

From the SMH 12:35pm today ESDST


----------



## CityIndex (21 February 2022)

frugal.rock said:


> Fake news/ tweet above?
> 
> From the SMH 12:35pm today ESDST



It appears to be legitimate. The White House has come out to say that Biden and Putin have reached an agreement in principle to meet. 

The news seems to have reignited some risk-appetite in the market, with safe-haven assets declining, and riskier assets, like the ASX200, rallying on the news. All trading carries risk, but should be interesting to see if this is sustained and fears of an invasion ease, or if it's simply respite before tensions re-escalate.


----------



## waterbottle (21 February 2022)

frugal.rock said:


> Fake news/ tweet above?
> 
> From the SMH 12:35pm today ESDST
> 
> View attachment 137889




This meeting won't occur until Friday 25th Feb (AEDST).... The bet is whether or not things remain stable enough until then.

The howardfineman tweet may have been late news, still trying to verify....


----------



## frugal.rock (21 February 2022)

It appears an order to "plan" for invasion has been given.
Seemingly just rhetoric at this stage.

There would be news headlines all over the shop if it had started.
There's enough reporters on the ground for verification....

It would appear certain US entities really want this to happen...









						Ukraine tensions: Biden agrees in principle to summit with Putin
					

The meeting, proposed by France, will only take place if Russia does not invade Ukraine, the US says.



					www.bbc.com


----------



## noirua (22 February 2022)




----------



## CityIndex (22 February 2022)

Reports are now suggesting that Putin a decree recognising the two breakaway regions in Ukraine as independent. 

It'll be important to watch whether EU now responds with any sanctions on Russia, or if the Biden-Putin meeting gets called off. Things look like they could boil over at the moment.


----------



## waterbottle (22 February 2022)

CityIndex said:


> Reports are now suggesting that Putin a decree recognising the two breakaway regions in Ukraine as independent.
> 
> It'll be important to watch whether EU now responds with any sanctions on Russia, or if the Biden-Putin meeting gets called off. Things look like they could boil over at the moment.




Agreed. That speech was an airing of grievances and sounded like a justification to claim more than just some break away territories....


----------



## divs4ever (22 February 2022)

COULD THIS EXPLAIN THE RUSSIAN CONFLICT?




Putin recognises Ukraine rebel regions as independent

https://www.investing.com/news/stoc...ns-for-summit-with-biden-over-ukraine-2768290

 interesting is the clear help Russia  is giving in evacuating  Ukrainian refugees  ,  the $64 million  question is  , will those refugees be welcomed as permanent citizens if they chose to settle ( Russia has been making concrete steps to increase it's population  , naturally and artificially


----------



## waterbottle (22 February 2022)

Troops now being bussed into Ukraine as part of 'peacekeeping' efforts...


----------



## divs4ever (22 February 2022)

somehow not an 'invasion ' when the West brings in 'official advisers ' ( to train troops and civilians )

 but the Ukrainian Government was increasing the shelling  , the other outcomes could be much worse ( like the rebel launch a counter-offensive or break-out attack ).. they DO have plenty of tanks and missile batteries of their own , courtesy of their Soviet past


----------



## greggles (22 February 2022)

divs4ever said:


> somehow not an 'invasion ' when the West brings in 'official advisers ' ( to train troops and civilians )




If you're there at the invitation of the Ukrainians, then by definition it's not an invasion. I don't think the Ukrainians have invited the Russian army in.


----------



## divs4ever (22 February 2022)

i am sure the rebels were happy their families were whisked away to safety  , the question might be do , the rebels welcome the Russian peace-keeping force  , or do the Russians return home  relieving the rebels of any former agreements  imposed on them ( by the Russians )

 but the Ukrainians already have some very unusual guests , which the media rarely report on


----------



## Garpal Gumnut (22 February 2022)

The fog of war. 

Pan out. 

Ole Joe Biden has had family financial interests in the Ukraine and Vladimir Vladimirovich looks forward to a place in Russian history. 

The Europeans and NATO are paralysed. The USA is a fractured empire.

Who do you reckon is going to win?

gg


----------



## tech/a (22 February 2022)

You don't want to take on the most dangerous people on earth  ---- The USA.

It can become a presidential democratic Dictatorship in minutes!


----------



## Gunnerguy (22 February 2022)

tech/a said:


> You don't want to take on the most dangerous people on earth  ---- The USA.
> 
> It can become a presidential democratic Dictatorship in minutes!



Article on gas supplies and  pipeline from Russia to Europe.
Makes very interesting reading.










						Nord Stream 2: how Putin’s pipeline paralysed the west
					

Gazprom’s $11bn project to deliver gas from Russia to Germany seems impossible to abandon and impossible to carry forward




					www.theguardian.com
				




Gunnetguy


----------



## noirua (23 February 2022)

US, UK and European sanctions target Russian economy and oligarchs – as it happened
					

US and UK curbs on Russian banks and oligarchs are welcomed by Ukraine as strong ‘first move’; Zelenskiy rules out a general mobilisation




					www.theguardian.com


----------



## noirua (23 February 2022)

He will be 70 in October this year. President Biden will be 80 in November this year.








						Vladimir Putin - Wikipedia
					






					en.wikipedia.org


----------



## noirua (23 February 2022)




----------



## waterbottle (23 February 2022)

The Russian parliament has given Putin authority to send troops abroad....

Meanwhile, the borders of the threatened regions have yet to be defined....

All actions point to war IMO. Biden due to give a briefing within the next half hour.


----------



## Stockbailx (23 February 2022)

Ukraine: EU foreign ministers and US announce sanctions against Russian banks and individuals;

A day after Russian President Vladimir Putin signed a decree recognising the independence of the separatist-controlled Donetsk and Luhansk regions in eastern Ukraine’s Donbas area, state media reported Russia’s upper chamber of parliament approved the use of armed forces outside of the country, according to CNN.
 The European Union foreign ministers agreed on Tuesday to a sanction package to include “351 members of the Russian State Duma who voted for the recognition of the so-called LPR and DPR” and 27 Russian individuals and entities, according to High Representative Josep Borell Fontelles. US President Joe Biden announced a "first tranche" of sanctions against two financial institutions, in addition to existing sanctions. He also said the US will be sending troops to the Baltic states to assist NATO allies.

*Next steps:* President Biden "reiterated that the United States would respond swiftly and decisively, in lockstep with its allies and partners, to further Russian aggression against Ukraine." The developments may also torpedo a last-minute summit with Biden, which was arranged by French President Emmanuel Macron over the weekend. The White House said it was prepared to meet with Putin "in principle" - if Moscow refrained from further invading Ukraine - but U.S. officials said they can no longer commit to a gathering that has a "predicate that Russia won't take military action, when it looks as imminently like it will." (1 comment)


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## basilio (23 February 2022)

The world wide economic implications of open war in Ukraine are going to be grim. Just off the top of my head

1) Squeeze of Russian gas supplies to Europe. Price jumps, Industry and domestic crisis with supply
2) Undermining of Ukraine role as a major world food supplier. It is the bread basket of Europe
3) Racketing of oil/gas prices as Russian oil comes off the market and supplies interrupted through Ukraine. Already causing infation . Can only get worse
4) Disruption to banking services .
5) High risk of cyber warfare that undermines many government, and infrastructure facilities
6) Risk of undermining Ukraine economically with implications for sovereign debt as well as local and international businesses.

I can only see these factors putting downward pressure on sharemakets as investors recognise these situations.

So from an investment POV ...


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## basilio (23 February 2022)

How could Russia attack Australia ?  

Retaliating  to sanctions with cyber attacks on infrastructure. Or just encouraging their local cyber criminals to have a free kick.









						'Behaving like thugs and bullies': Australia imposes sanctions on Russia over Ukraine invasion
					

Prime Minister Scott Morrison says Australia will join other western nations to impose sanctions on Russian "bullies", after its government began moving troops into Ukraine.




					www.abc.net.au


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## The Triangle (23 February 2022)

Stockybailz said:


> Ukraine: EU foreign ministers and US announce sanctions against Russian banks and individuals;
> 
> A day after Russian President Vladimir Putin signed a decree recognising the independence of the separatist-controlled Donetsk and Luhansk regions in eastern Ukraine’s Donbas area, state media reported Russia’s upper chamber of parliament approved the use of armed forces outside of the country, according to CNN.
> The European Union foreign ministers agreed on Tuesday to a sanction package to include “351 members of the Russian State Duma who voted for the recognition of the so-called LPR and DPR” and 27 Russian individuals and entities, according to High Representative Josep Borell Fontelles. US President Joe Biden announced a "first tranche" of sanctions against two financial institutions, in addition to existing sanctions. He also said the US will be sending troops to the Baltic states to assist NATO allies.
> ...



The world will do and has done nothing meaningful here.  A few sanctions here and there (which will ultimately be insignificant and useless) won't stop putin if putin wants to walk in and take Ukraine or parts of Ukraine.   Those who get sanctioned know they are on the list of likely to be sanctioned and manage their assets accordingly.  Can you still buy IPhones and use twitter in Russia?  If the answer is yes then these sanctions are a joke.   Surely google can deactivate android across all of Russia if they _really _wanted to...   Sanctions are always weak as piss and never work.    Trudeau hit the trucker protesters harder than Biden hit the Russians.  

The only thing the western politicians care about is how they can use this to manipulate the market and make a few $$$ on their various holdings.


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## divs4ever (23 February 2022)

basilio said:


> How could Russia attack Australia ?
> 
> Retaliating  to sanctions with cyber attacks on infrastructure. Or just encouraging their local cyber criminals to have a free kick.
> 
> ...



 sell more commodities to China   in a currency that is NOT US dollars  , i believe  there is a direct goods swap  agreement already in place  , expanding that is possible as well  , 

 no fancy stuff needed   , reduced demand for Australian exports ( by supplying more )

 a more provocative  tactic would more naval traffic outside Australian territorial waters  keeping our coastal defenses stressed and stretched  and not ignoring the South Pacific Islands  for friendly visits 

 of course Russia back-tracking to be more accommodative of crypto currencies ( including bitcoin mining ) won't help Australia either 

 now obviously if this war gets physical   i wouldn't want to be anywhere near  Pine Gap or the Darwin ports


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## JohnDe (23 February 2022)

The Triangle said:


> The world will do and has done nothing meaningful here.  A few sanctions here and there (which will ultimately be insignificant and useless) won't stop putin if putin wants to walk in and take Ukraine or parts of Ukraine.   Those who get sanctioned know they are on the list of likely to be sanctioned and manage their assets accordingly.  Can you still buy IPhones and use twitter in Russia?  If the answer is yes then these sanctions are a joke.   Surely google can deactivate android across all of Russia if they _really _wanted to...   Sanctions are always weak as piss and never work.    Trudeau hit the trucker protesters harder than Biden hit the Russians.
> 
> The only thing the western politicians care about is how they can use this to manipulate the market and make a few $$$ on their various holdings.




You are mostly correct; sanctions do very little to persuade tyrants.

Yesterday, when some world leaders said that they would discuss, overnight, which sanctions to put in place I laughed. They have been threatening sanctions for weeks, and yet they had not prepared to slap Russia with sanctions as the army crossed the border.

Stopping all international products, such as the iPhone entering Russia, will not work when there re other countries like China that can supply anything that the West takes away.

Other than a direct military response from NATO, the USA and her allies, there is not much more that can be done. And attacking Russian troops will cause a European war, it could also prompt China to get involved.

 Citizens of the West are not prepared to send their children to battle, and are definitely not willing to have a war.


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## divs4ever (23 February 2022)

Russia does make their own  phones ,  sure they are quirky and  fold over  and don't have cinema quality cameras ( unless they are working for intelligence ) but a lot of Russians do manual jobs   they don't need to look pretty on face-time 

 and the second option is China who makes an array of adequate phones


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## JohnDe (23 February 2022)




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## Value Collector (23 February 2022)

JohnDe said:


> Stopping all international products, such as the iPhone entering Russia, will not work when there re other countries like China that can supply anything that the West takes away.



If china had to choose between Russian Trade or Trade with west I wonder which they would choose


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## waterbottle (23 February 2022)

Yes the sanctions seem soft so far, but the rhetoric surrounding the conflict remains intense (whether true or not).

The US now confirms that talks between Biden - Putin that were due to go ahead on Thursday have been cancelled given recent events.

Meanwhile Putin is bussing in more troops, has warships in the Black Sea and troops on the Belarus border... I don't think he's done yet


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## divs4ever (24 February 2022)

Value Collector said:


> If china had to choose between Russian Trade or Trade with west I wonder which they would choose



let's tweak that question a little  ... trade with the West  ( using US dollars or euros ) or trade with Russia ( currently denominated in euros , BUT some chance of a mutual agreement in  other terms if needed  )

 Russia isn't very big on sanctions or tariffs for political reasons  , has a nice range of resources for sale  ..

 if i were the West i would think very carefully before   making ultimatums , just saying


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## Smurf1976 (24 February 2022)

divs4ever said:


> Russia isn't very big on sanctions or tariffs for political reasons , has a nice range of resources for sale ..
> 
> if i were the West i would think very carefully before making ultimatums , just saying



Russia has the world's largest reserves of gas, second largest reserves of coal and third largest reserves of iron ore.

What does China need that they presently buy from another country who they've promised to bring economic suffering and misery to? Well that would be gas, coal and iron ore.

Russia also has an assortment of other minerals that China needs to import.

Australia take note.


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## divs4ever (24 February 2022)

i hear Mongolia has a bit of coal  , as does North Korea  ,  Russia  is still friendly  with a few nearby states   ( so could easily JV  to help them get a share of Chinese demand ) AND China is willing to invest to procure resources it  needs

 China without Western goods might be painful for a while  , but maybe not crippling  , the BIG question is can China cope without the West  vacuuming up Chinese goods


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## sptrawler (24 February 2022)

basilio said:


> The world wide economic implications of open war in Ukraine are going to be grim. Just off the top of my head
> 
> 1) Squeeze of Russian gas supplies to Europe. Price jumps, Industry and domestic crisis with supply
> 2) Undermining of Ukraine role as a major world food supplier. It is the bread basket of Europe
> ...



Just need to get the renewables in faster, they are cheaper anyway, sounds familiar?


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## sptrawler (24 February 2022)

Smurf1976 said:


> Russia has the world's largest reserves of gas, second largest reserves of coal and third largest reserves of iron ore.
> 
> What does China need that they presently buy from another country who they've promised to bring economic suffering and misery to? Well that would be gas, coal and iron ore.
> 
> ...




Europe will be able to wedge Russia and China, because they will use dirty fuel to make cheap goods, where Europe and the West will use green fuel to make expensive but glowing green goods.
I know what people will buy, as was proven in Australia. LOL
Trump had the right idea, keep them under pressure to conform to a universal system, now we have mayhem.
What a mess.


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## sptrawler (24 February 2022)

divs4ever said:


> i hear Mongolia has a bit of coal  , as does North Korea  ,  Russia  is still friendly  with a few nearby states   ( so could easily JV  to help them get a share of Chinese demand ) AND China is willing to invest to procure resources it  needs
> 
> China without Western goods might be painful for a while  , but maybe not crippling  , the BIG question is can China cope without the West  vacuuming up Chinese goods



Well I think China has half a billiion poor people still and Russia can vacuum up heaps, plus SE Asia.
I guess more of a question is can the West survive, without China's cheap $hit? What do we make, except for high end exclusive stuff?
How many blast furnaces and steel mills are there in Australia, the U.K, the U.S, Canada any more?
At least getting rid of Trump has brought to a head, how exposed the West is and the fact that a manufacturing base needed to be re established. 
You have to thank the loonies for something.


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## Smurf1976 (24 February 2022)

divs4ever said:


> China without Western goods might be painful for a while , but maybe not crippling , the BIG question is can China cope without the West vacuuming up Chinese goods



In the short term, and in this context "short term" means a decade, the West is a captive customer with basically zero choice.

Now if it was Russia + China and they got some others also on board, such as various African countries and Venezuela (which has massive oil reserves) well then that sorts pretty much everything they need and gives them a huge internal market for goods and services too.


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## divs4ever (24 February 2022)

China CAN make quality goods  , but the greedy kleptocrats want maximum  profit 

think post WW2 Japan or Germany  , China could easily make top quality products  , but who will buy them  , billions of people are broke  ( because of government debt )


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## sptrawler (24 February 2022)

divs4ever said:


> China CAN make quality goods  , but the greedy kleptocrats want maximum  profit
> 
> think post WW2 Japan or Germany  , China could easily make top quality products  , but who will buy them  , billions of people are broke  ( because of government debt )



Money is nothing, it is an agreement between countries that they will honour their obligations, once that agreement between countries fails, the currency is worth jack $hit.
You go to China and stay in a hotel, what if they say we don't accept $AU.
Government debt, who do they owe it to?
The whole system works on trust and that is what is being tested at the moment IMO.
The West has not been in such a precarious position for a long time.
It is going to be very interesting to see how it all pans out. You may find that China and Russia form a common currency and demand it be the reserve rather than the US.
Who knows


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## Smurf1976 (24 February 2022)

divs4ever said:


> who will buy them , billions of people are broke ( because of government debt )




To whom does China, Russia or anyone they might become allied with owe this money?

If it's the West then that's very easily sorted by simply not paying.

Debt's a bit like intellectual property - it only exists if both parties agree it exists. As soon as one decides it doesn't well what's the other really going to do about it?

The thread's about Ukraine but I'm seeing that as the first undeniable and highly visible step to something far bigger. Noting that plenty of much smaller steps have already been taken quietly over an extended period, it's just that it has now come to the point where it's necessary to start doing the things that are more obvious.

Russia and China have apparently just done a deal for 100 million tonnes of coal according to media reports so add that to the Russia - China gas pipeline, and it seems there's another one now to be built as well, and there's a commodities alliance forming there.


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## Smurf1976 (24 February 2022)

sptrawler said:


> You go to China and stay in a hotel, what if they say we don't accept $AU.



One doesn't have to travel too far to find that's the case.

Plenty of countries where they'll take local currency and they'll take USD or EUR even though they're not part of the US or EU but no chance they'll accept AUD.


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## divs4ever (24 February 2022)

sptrawler said:


> Money is nothing, it is an agreement between countries that they will honour their obligations, once that agreement between countries fails, the currency is worth jack $hit.
> You go to China and stay in a hotel, what if they say we don't accept $AU.
> Government debt, who do they owe it to?
> The whole system works on trust and that is what is being tested at the moment IMO.
> ...



 they were  on one stage  planning a BRICS  common currency  but some members have come on tough times ( South Africa and Brazil ) 

 do you really want to be the reserve currency  while the mega-bankers keep on avoiding jail  ( that i believe was the idea of the BRICS common currency  , so member nations  could still adjust their own currency against the larger world markets )

 but yes that trust thingy is getting a real bashing


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## waterbottle (24 February 2022)

DNR & LNR - now officially recognised as independent regions by Russia - have officially asked for assistance.... Standby...


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## noirua (24 February 2022)

Fox News
					

America is Watching.




					www.foxnews.com
				








						Russian forces attacking Kyiv, explosions heard in Ukrainian capital: LIVE UPDATES
					

Russian forces have closed to within 20 miles of Ukraine's capital, Defense Secretary Lloyd Austin told lawmakers.




					www.foxnews.com


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## Telamelo (24 February 2022)

Putin is a very smart "war chess" player (as Trump alluded too already).. he has the West/NATO where he wants at his mercy & with the huge support of China & many other countries that Russia trades with such as many African nations, India, Pakistan, Brazil etc. Sanctions by the West won't impact Russia whatsoever perhaps only minimal if anything.

I recall reading that Putin has made a huge gas deal with China just this past week worth $30B if I'm not mistaken..


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## Value Collector (24 February 2022)

Smurf1976 said:


> Russia has the world's largest reserves of gas, second largest reserves of coal and third largest reserves of iron ore.
> 
> What does China need that they presently buy from another country who they've promised to bring economic suffering and misery to? Well that would be gas, coal and iron ore.
> 
> ...



What does China need to sell though,

And is russia a big enough market to offset USA, UK, Canada, France, Germany, etc etc.

if China wanted to stop buying LNG from Australia and USA, we could send it to Europe, but where is China going to send all their doodads,


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## waterbottle (24 February 2022)

China has been hoping to build sufficient domestic demand such that it would no longer need to rely on the US consumer. Not too sure how far along they are but this has been in the works since the Trump trade tariffs.
Furthermore, their recent movements in monetary policy have been accommodative and will probably remain so given concerns over real estate failures and their relatively high interest rates (c.f. global standards).

I think they'll be able to create some domestic demand if the West were completely blocked


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## waterbottle (24 February 2022)

More developments. Ukrainian President snubbed by Putin. NOTAM issued by Russia along North East Ukrainian airspace, closure to all civil aviation. France now asking citizens to leave Ukraine immediately.


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## JohnDe (24 February 2022)

Value Collector said:


> If china had to choose between Russian Trade or Trade with west I wonder which they would choose




If it was only that simple the world wouldn't be in its current turmoil.

The world has become dependent on china for not only manufactured goods but also processed raw materials such as rare earths.

Can you really see the the west stopping all imports from China? Imagine the shortages that would create, and the massive increase of inflation, breakdown of vehicles waiting on parts, emergency services, and so on.

Nothing is impossible. Governments of the west could be strong enough to call a stop to China imports. Are the people strong enough to support the governments through the shortages, disruptions, higher inflation than what is already coming?


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## waterbottle (24 February 2022)

Rumours on social media are that an attack will occur at 4am local time, which is ~12pm AEST


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## JohnDe (24 February 2022)

> The world could be plunged into another recession if Russia ends its energy exports into Europe due to the invasion of Ukraine, analysts warn, while Australian motorists face further pain at the pump as global oil prices threaten to push above $US100 ($138) a barrel.
> 
> As Germany put an $11bn natural-gas pipeline on hold and traders fretted that Moscow would withhold gas in retaliation, pushing gas prices higher, Mr Taylor said Australian gas prices remained 77 per cent below Asian and European prices.
> 
> ...






			https://www.theaustralian.com.au/nation/ukraine-fallout-fuels-fears-of-global-recession/news-story/76f8b0d1faa5cae1ec6fcb49fe9f853d


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## waterbottle (24 February 2022)

Agreed with the assessment RE: oil.
Biden alluded to some measures that would be implemented to help ease prices at the pump (and IIRC he alluded to the impact that would have on inflation). Saudi's have said that they wouldn't be adjusting their output. Iran seems to be preparing for a possible increase in demand pending resolution of nuclear talks with the US. Meanwhile, current sanction against Russia haven't disrupted crude supply, but that doesn't mean Russia won't decide to stop selling the US!


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## Value Collector (24 February 2022)

JohnDe said:


> The world has become dependent on china for not only manufactured goods but also processed raw materials such as rare earths.
> 
> Can you really see the the west stopping all imports from China? Imagine the shortages that would create, and the massive increase of inflation, breakdown of vehicles waiting on parts, emergency services, and so on.



I can't see either side wanting to stop the flow of goods, China and the west are mutually dependent on each other, hence why China is trying to dance along the fence line on the Ukraine issue.

China wants to side with Russia for its defence and to maintain a strong and intimidating front against possible "western aggression", but it knows it is economically linked to Ukraine, and the rest of Europe and the USA.

If china could say FU to the west and not cause economic and political pain in china, they would, but they can't.


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## JohnDe (24 February 2022)

Value Collector said:


> I can't see either side wanting to stop the flow of goods, China and the west are mutually dependent on each other, hence why China is trying to dance along the fence line on the Ukraine issue.
> 
> China wants to side with Russia for its defence and to maintain a strong and intimidating front against possible "western aggression", but it knows it is economically linked to Ukraine, and the rest of Europe and the USA.
> 
> If china could say FU to the west and not cause economic and political pain in china, they would, but they can't.




Same goes for the west, we will never say FU to China if China keeps sending goods to Russia.


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## CityIndex (24 February 2022)

Rumours are now circulating that Russia could be looking at beginning their attack in the coming hours, as the breakaway regions have asked for military assistance. 

Gold is extending its gains after closing at new highs, while the ASX200 has dropped close around 2%. If the rumours end up being accurate,  it could see the current price action accelerate. However, if they end up being false, it could help improve risk appetite, at least temporarily. 

This is, of course, speculation, so it's important to remember all trading carries risk, and  to closely monitor the situation as it develops.


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## Value Collector (24 February 2022)

JohnDe said:


> Same goes for the west, we will never say FU to China if China keeps sending goods to Russia.



If china started military action against the west, you can bet the west would say FU to china, and their economy would crumble, and civil unrest would cause the down fall of their government.

That is why China will support Russia with words, but not militarily, as I said China is dancing a fine line, it wants to be the world factory and have a strong export economy, but it also wants to be seen as being defiant to the USA .

China has far more to gain economically from its relationship with the west than it can ever gain from its relationship with Russia, and they know that, they aren't dumb, they rely on having their people employed and feed, and thats all funded by their exports to the west.


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## waterbottle (24 February 2022)

> However, if they end up being false, it could help improve risk appetite, at least temporarily.




With a looming interest rate rise of 0.5% by the Federal Reserve?
Risk appetite was down-trending, Putin's actions have now destroyed it.

It's a new game now IMO


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## JohnDe (24 February 2022)

Value Collector said:


> If china started military action against the west, you can bet the west would say FU to china, and their economy would crumble, and civil unrest would cause the down fall of their government.
> 
> That is why China will support Russia with words, but not militarily, as I said China is dancing a fine line, it wants to be the world factory and have a strong export economy, but it also wants to be seen as being defiant to the USA .
> 
> China has far more to gain economically from its relationship with the west than it can ever gain from its relationship with Russia, and they know that, they aren't dumb, they rely on having their people employed and feed, and thats all funded by their exports to the west.




How did this conversation escalate from *trade* to 'military action'?

We started on your comment "_If china had to choose between Russian *Trade* or *Trade* with west I wonder which they would choose_"

China can afford to trade with both the west and Russia. The west needs China made goods and processed materials. The west will never shut down all trade with China, and China knows this.

Do you know how many of the worlds biggest companies have manufacturing and industrial facilities in China? Do you think that governments in the west will involve themselves in the loss of all that?


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## Value Collector (24 February 2022)

JohnDe said:


> How did this conversation escalate from *trade* to 'military action'?
> 
> We started on your comment "_If china had to choose between Russian *Trade* or *Trade* with west I wonder which they would choose_"
> 
> ...



I was giving an example of what would cause the West to shut down trade with China.

My original comment was simply stating that China values its economic relationship with the west far more than it’s relationship with Russia.

If China doesn’t support Russia militarily, then the whole “red bloc” concept is a bit dead in the water, and it’s just Russia on the footy field by itself against almost every other power in the world.

Just wait and see, you will see that Chinas Support of Russia is just a facade, sure China will trade with Russia, just like it wants to trade with everyone, but they aren’t blood brothers.


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## JohnDe (24 February 2022)

Value Collector said:


> I was giving an example of what would cause the West to shut down trade with China.
> 
> My original comment was simply stating that China values its economic relationship with the west far more than it’s relationship with Russia.
> 
> ...




Yes, war between countries will always shut down trade. 

Shutting down trade will lead to war, just as it did when oil trade was banned to Japan just before WWII.

China will not stop trading to Russia, they may make some conciliatory actions such as no more water pumps for Ladas to Russia but they'll keep trading. And the west will not want to or be able to force China to stop trading with Russia.


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## JohnDe (24 February 2022)

If the west can convince (negotiate) with China to join in a common good to change Putin's views and bring order back, the world could be back on track for world prosperity and peace. Fingers crossed.



> As Western leaders struggle to respond to Vladimir Putin’s unexpectedly dramatic challenge to the post-Cold War order in Europe, the record so far is mixed. The West has assembled something approaching a united stance on the limits of the concessions it is prepared to make and on the nature of the sanctions it is willing to impose should Mr. Putin choose war. Neither hyperactive grandstanding in Paris nor phlegmatic passivity from Berlin has prevented the emergence of a common Western position. This is an accomplishment for which the Biden administration deserves credit.
> 
> Yet this is a defensive accomplishment, not a decisive one. As Mr Putin demonstrated in his speech Monday, the Russian president is still in the driver’s seat, and it is his decisions, not ours, that will shape the next stage of the confrontation. Russia, a power that Western leaders mocked and derided for decades (“a gas station masquerading as a country,” as Sen. John McCain once put it), has seized the diplomatic and military initiative in Europe, and the West is, so far, powerless to do anything about it. We wring our hands, offer Mr. Putin off-ramps, and hope that our carefully hedged descriptions of the sanctions we are prepared to impose will change his mind.
> 
> ...







			https://www.theaustralian.com.au/business/the-wall-street-journal/why-putin-is-outfoxing-the-west/news-story/cd601dae2e6ebace82d4f215b3e23527


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## waterbottle (24 February 2022)

JohnDe said:


> If the west can convince (negotiate) China to join in a common good to change Putin's views and bring order back, the world could be back on track for world prosperity and peace. Fingers crossed.
> 
> 
> 
> ...




Has China ever brokered peace? Why would we expect them to do so this time?
The only nation China has managed to have some diplomatic influence over is North Korea... Not the greatest outcome...

I don't think they see themselves as "World Police" as does the US - to the benefit of many nations.


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## basilio (24 February 2022)

sptrawler said:


> Just need to get the renewables in faster, they are cheaper anyway, sounds familiar?




Bit glib SP. "Faster" is not next month is it ? Creating a massive  highly expensive energy shortage  in the next few months would just be disastrous. Check oil crisis 1973 , 1979.









						Background: What caused the 1970s oil price shock?
					

The 1970s oil crisis knocked the wind out of the global economy and helped trigger a stock market crash, soaring inflation and high unemployment - ultimately leading to the fall of a UK government




					www.theguardian.com


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## Value Collector (24 February 2022)

JohnDe said:


> Yes, war between countries will always shut down trade.
> 
> Shutting down trade will lead to war, just as it did when oil trade was banned to Japan just before WWII.
> 
> China will not stop trading to Russia, they may make some conciliatory actions such as no more water pumps for Ladas to Russia but they'll keep trading. And the west will not want to or be able to force China to stop trading with Russia.



I wasn’t suggesting China would stop trading with Russia, I am just suggesting that they won’t do anything that will jeopardise their lucrative western markets.

the reason I mentioned this is that some people seem to think russia and China could form some self supporting economic and military union, I am just pointing out this is not possible.

hence I believe the russia-China union some people are worried about is over stated.


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## JohnDe (24 February 2022)

_“Simply put, China has to back Russia up with emotional and moral support while refraining from treading on the toes of the United States and European Union,”

For China, supporting a Russian invasion of Ukraine would harm already deteriorating ties with Western nations, but Beijing is also eager to bolster its burgeoning relationship with Moscow to counter what it sees as U.S. efforts to suppress its rise as a global power._



> China did not explicitly endorse Moscow’s latest moves toward Ukraine but still recognized on Tuesday what it called Russia’s legitimate security concerns, in Beijing’s latest tightrope act over the crisis in Eastern Europe.
> 
> Chinese Foreign Minister Wang Yi called on all parties involved to “exercise restraint” and resolve the crisis through negotiation, in a phone conversation with U.S. Secretary of State Antony Blinken. He still, however, referred to countries’ legitimate security concerns, a nod toward Russia’s assertion that Ukraine represents a threat.
> 
> ...






			https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/2022/02/22/china-russia-ukraine-reaction/


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## waterbottle (24 February 2022)

Russian officials now in military command centers....









						Russia-Ukraine updates: US to ban Russian carriers from its airspace
					

Live updates on the Russia-Ukraine crisis.




					abcnews.go.com


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## Logique2 (24 February 2022)

Poland, Hungary and Romania will be feeling nervous. 
Taiwan already is..


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## waterbottle (24 February 2022)




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## wayneL (24 February 2022)

Logique2 said:


> Poland, Hungary and Romania will be feeling nervous.
> Taiwan already is..



Don't worry, the alphabet soup brigade will protect them.


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## waterbottle (24 February 2022)

Explosions now being streamed across Ukraine.... The war has begun.

Putin threaten's those who want to intervene



This is history in the making folks. Amazing and depressing at the same time.


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## wayneL (24 February 2022)

waterbottle said:


> Explosions now being streamed across Ukraine.... The war has begun.
> 
> Putin threaten's those who want to intervene
> 
> ...




I'm not a mormon, but they have given us a really good lesson.

We have a year's supply of grub in the backroom.

There's plenty of **** we haven't really thought of but at least partly contigensified(sic, because I love inventing words)


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## JohnDe (24 February 2022)

*"War is a place where the young kill one another without knowing or hating each other, because of the decision of old people who know and hate each other, without killing each other"* - Erich Hartmann

😥


----------



## Wedgy (24 February 2022)

Old world diplomacy, when will we learn. There is of course a simple solution, if Ukraine a former prominent member of USSR can join NATO, then why can't Russia, problem solved. Perhaps the world should be run by women, instead of male despots, at least women would not be so keen to send their children to war.


----------



## waterbottle (24 February 2022)

Amazing.... the DPR & LPR are not the main focus here... Kyiv has also been bombarded.

Putin has been brazen - the attack was initiated *whilst* the UN security council was meeting! Incredible.

There will be more developments. Markets are rightly in free-fall.

We are look at a potential new world here. Where there is a division between East (Russia + China) and West (remainder of Europe + USA). We are staring down the barrel of a financial disaster, an energy crisis and a health pandemic.

Depressing times.


----------



## Knobby22 (24 February 2022)

Putin has declared war. Official now.


----------



## spratty84 (24 February 2022)

Im out sold all positions at good profit except vml which im holding on to


----------



## againsthegrain (24 February 2022)

waterbottle said:


> Amazing.... the DPR & LPR are not the main focus here... Kyiv has also been bombarded.
> 
> Putin has been brazen - the attack was initiated *whilst* the UN security council was meeting! Incredible.
> 
> ...




1920s -> 2020s


----------



## Smurf1976 (24 February 2022)

JohnDe said:


> China will not stop trading to Russia, they may make some conciliatory actions such as no more water pumps for Ladas to Russia but they'll keep trading. And the west will not want to or be able to force China to stop trading with Russia



They're increasing ties with Russia not reducing them.

New 100 million tonne coal deal for example and new gas pipeline agreed in recent days according to media reports. China's pivoting toward Russia and away from Australia and others in that action.


----------



## Telamelo (24 February 2022)

I think that the more sanctions are imposed on/against Russia then the worst/more aggressive Putin will become (in turn escalate conflict) - I've watched European geopolitical analyst's this afternoon discussing this in detail and their opinions are clear that sanctions won't work nor deter Putin whatsoever but in fact increase the likelihood of retaliation/further consequences towards the West/NATO 

This is fast becoming an ugly situation unfortunately.

Meanwhile, we suffer here in Australia with much higher fuel prices to pay at the pump & all our transport supplies of goods will cost more too at supermarkets etc. (given the spike in oil price). Won't be surprised if cost of electricity & gas in Australia skyrockets to put further pressure on family household's.

Meanwhile, our AUD Gold price already reached $2,707 per oz so the only shining light on our ASX stock market today.


----------



## The Triangle (24 February 2022)

Sanctions?  What sanctions?  Can't hurt western business interests...especially not the gold miners!


----------



## waterbottle (24 February 2022)

The Triangle said:


> Sanctions?  What sanctions?  Can't hurt western business interests...especially not the gold miners!





The sanctions aren't even complete.... **** we don't even know if the military actions are complete


----------



## waterbottle (24 February 2022)

Russian exchange down 45%!!!!!! Wooooow


----------



## wayneL (24 February 2022)

Do the big swinging d**k traders know something the rest of us don't?

We are down but Russian stocks are taking it where the sun don't shine.

Hmmmm


----------



## wayneL (24 February 2022)

waterbottle said:


> Russian exchange down 45%!!!!!! Wooooow



Snap!


----------



## divs4ever (24 February 2022)

WHY THE RUSSIAN SANCTIONS ARE A JOKE​


 the commentator   is a former British soldier with  several war zone postings


----------



## divs4ever (24 February 2022)

WHY THE RUSSIAN SANCTIONS ARE A JOKE​


 the commentator   is a former British soldier with  several war zone postings


----------



## divs4ever (24 February 2022)

wayneL said:


> Snap!



 and i have no way of buying  some of the stocks  .. DAMN 

 after various virus responses around the world  ...  the geo-political risk isn't that much greater now


----------



## wayneL (24 February 2022)

The reason why Vlad should be absolutely terrified... NOT

LMAO, we are ****ed.


----------



## wayneL (24 February 2022)

divs4ever said:


> and i have no way of buying  some of the stocks  .. DAMN
> 
> after various virus responses around the world  ...  the geo-political risk isn't that much greater now



Maybe, but I would be seriously selling Taiwan at the moment.


----------



## noirua (24 February 2022)

Russian forces attacking Kyiv, explosions heard in Ukrainian capital: LIVE UPDATES
					

Russian forces have closed to within 20 miles of Ukraine's capital, Defense Secretary Lloyd Austin told lawmakers.




					www.foxnews.com
				



“It’s too late, my dear colleagues, to speak about de-escalation,” Ukrainian Ambassador Sergiy Kyslytsya said during an emergency meeting of the United Nations Security Council that happened as President Vladimir Putin ordered a “special military operation" and started attacking Ukraine.


----------



## divs4ever (24 February 2022)

can't buy Taiwan exposure either  , remember MOST conquering  countries  aspire to the assets in the nation under pressure 

 ( and old former buddy  quote  ' i ain't here for a holiday ' sounds funny until you understand his military career )

now sometimes a defending, retreating  army  can resort to 'scorched earth ' (leave nothing for the enemy to gain ) 

 the place to  watch is ( South ) Korea  they will be under increased  coercion to unite with the North  , a direction they were already  working towards very carefully  , they will be caught like a deer in the headlights with this ( AND there is some ETF exposure possible  )


----------



## noirua (24 February 2022)




----------



## noirua (24 February 2022)

Traffic jams are seen as people leave the city of Kyiv, Ukraine, Thursday, Feb. 24, 2022.


----------



## Wedgy (24 February 2022)

Sitting on my hands and have increased cash, no plans to buy anything yet, nor sell, the simple fact is Australia's major trading partners are all in Asia, so what is happening in Europe doesn't really matter to Australian stocks in the long run, just a bit of short term pain, mainly oil related. My view is, if anyone thought Putin was going to do nothing about Ukraine wanting to join NATO is nieve. This invasion could of been prevented by the West saying Ukraine would not be allowed to join NATO.


----------



## basilio (24 February 2022)

I wonder what would happen if Ukraine started to use asymmetrical warfare tactics on Russia ?  It's clear Russia has overpowering conventional military capacity.  However what if

Ukraine had  identified the homes and workplaces of the most senior Russian politicians, military and social figures
Already taken steps to  enable them to attack these sites
Set up a fleet of small attack drones  to target these  and other locations ?
This invasion has been on the horizon for many weeks.  What strategies would the Ukraine military and government have developed to effectively respond to the situation ? Or would sending a fleet of killer drones into Putins grand estate really xiss him off.


----------



## noirua (24 February 2022)

News, sport and opinion from the Guardian's global edition | The Guardian
					

Latest international news, sport and comment from the Guardian




					www.theguardian.com
				



Russia-Ukraine crisis live news: international outcry as Putin launches ‘full-scale invasion’ – latest updates​


----------



## noirua (24 February 2022)

Ukrainian forces say they have killed around 50 “Russian occupiers” while taking back control of the eastern frontline town of Shchastya. *The agency says it could not independently confirm that claim.*








						Fears Moscow plans to encircle and threaten Kyiv – as it happened
					

US secretary of state says Russia plans widespread human rights abuses; Ukrainian spokesman condemns ‘totally pointless attack’




					www.theguardian.com


----------



## waterbottle (24 February 2022)

Wedgy said:


> Sitting on my hands and have increased cash, no plans to buy anything yet, nor sell, the simple fact is Australia's major trading partners are all in Asia, so what is happening in Europe doesn't really matter to Australian stocks in the long run, just a bit of short term pain, mainly oil related. My view is, if anyone thought Putin was going to do nothing about Ukraine wanting to join NATO is nieve. This invasion could of been prevented by the West saying Ukraine would not be allowed to join NATO.




Short term pain? I would argue not...

We've just witnessed destabilisation in Europe that has forced several governments to reassess the safety of their borders. NATO is meeting as we speak as nearby eastern European countries feel that they are next in line!

This is not just a skirmish. Crimea was small portion of land that resulted in sanctions for several years.
This is an assault on an entire country, that may develop into a regional conflict and drag the rest of the world into it.

Meanwhile, China is biding it's time and learning from both Russia and the West. It shares the very same philosophies that Putin published only 2 days ago - it believes in reunification of ancestral lands and it does not abide by borders drawn up and enforced by modern international laws/treaties. Its eyes are set on Taiwan.

And now we await a response... From a Western world that has been hamstrung by its own internal squabbles. The USA of today hangs a series of humiliating losses on its belt.
Even if one were to ignore its record, Russia is not some Afghanistan or Iraq or Vietnam. The options for a physical response are limited. Diplomatic responses are off the table. Economic responses will just anger Putin and feed into his narrative.

My point is, this will be a difficult event for any government to respond to, let alone successfully resolve. And in the very likely chance that there is no resolution (given the possibility of MAD), what signal does that send to the world? That our rule-based system of international law is no longer valid? That Might is once again Right?
It would pave the way for nefarious actors to redraw borders and usher in a period of global instability.

The events of the past 24hrs will have impact us for years. These are global events and they will have a global impact. This has the potential to reshape economies for years and create new political blocs.

We thought coronavirus was a global challenge, this is bigger IMO and there is nothing short term about it.


----------



## moXJO (24 February 2022)

Get ready for some hot action


----------



## Telamelo (24 February 2022)

waterbottle said:


> Short term pain? I would argue not...
> 
> We've just witnessed destabilisation in Europe that has forced several governments to reassess the safety of their borders. NATO is meeting as we speak as nearby eastern European countries feel that they are next in line!
> 
> ...



Excellent post & comments you made @ waterbottle


----------



## The Triangle (24 February 2022)

moXJO said:


> Get ready for some hot action












						Foreign funds now own 81% of all shares listed on Moscow Exchange -bourse
					

Global foreign funds increased their holdings of Russian stocks to more than 80% of all shares trading on the Moscow Exchange in the first half of this year, the bourse said on Thursday, attracted by higher dividend yields than in other emerging markets.




					www.reuters.com
				




Doesn't sound like that drop is going to be affecting ordinary Russians...   _ investors from the United States and Canada accounted for 54% of the total, with 22% from the United Kingdom and 21% from the rest of Europe_


----------



## divs4ever (24 February 2022)

The Triangle said:


> Foreign funds now own 81% of all shares listed on Moscow Exchange -bourse
> 
> 
> Global foreign funds increased their holdings of Russian stocks to more than 80% of all shares trading on the Moscow Exchange in the first half of this year, the bourse said on Thursday, attracted by higher dividend yields than in other emerging markets.
> ...



 i wonder how many of them were pension funds  ??


----------



## moXJO (24 February 2022)

The Triangle said:


> Foreign funds now own 81% of all shares listed on Moscow Exchange -bourse
> 
> 
> Global foreign funds increased their holdings of Russian stocks to more than 80% of all shares trading on the Moscow Exchange in the first half of this year, the bourse said on Thursday, attracted by higher dividend yields than in other emerging markets.
> ...



Russian dark money bought up London/US property and foreign assets. Also foreign politicians.
This is looking planned down to the t.
Also Russia is commodity rich.
Looking like a wash at the moment.


----------



## sptrawler (24 February 2022)

wayneL said:


> The reason why Vlad should be absolutely terrified... NOT
> 
> LMAO, we are ****ed.




Yep, all you have to do is get rid of Trump and the worlds problems are solved. 🤣


----------



## sptrawler (24 February 2022)

Wedgy said:


> Old world diplomacy, when will we learn. There is of course a simple solution, if Ukraine a former prominent member of USSR can join NATO, then why can't Russia, problem solved. Perhaps the world should be run by women, instead of male despots, at least women would not be so keen to send their children to war.



I don't remember Margaret Thatcher taking a backward step.


----------



## So_Cynical (25 February 2022)

I hope the west really hammers Putin, they have to get the people to turn on him somehow, i reckon the west should totally isolate Russia, no visas, no exports at all, no imports - nothing. i imagine the Saudis would be keen to see the POO double.

The west has absolutely no appetite for war so they have to wield power another way..


----------



## noirua (25 February 2022)

President Biden to speak at 12:30 p.m. EST US - 5.30pm GMT UK - ( 3.30 a.m. AET - 4.30 a.m. AET DST ) - 1.30 a.m. AWT - 4.00 a.m. SAT - 3.00 a.m. ACT -​President Biden is expected to deliver remarks on Russia’s invasion of Ukraine at 12:30 p.m. EST from the East Room.


----------



## Value Collector (25 February 2022)

Smurf1976 said:


> They're increasing ties with Russia not reducing them.
> 
> New 100 million tonne coal deal for example and new gas pipeline agreed in recent days according to media reports. China's pivoting toward Russia and away from Australia and others in that action.



It’s kind of a zero sum game though, Russia is now going to be selling much less stuff into Europe, so what ever extra sales they make to China, will be offset by lost sales to Europe.

what that means is that producers that normally supply China, will have the options of routing product to Europe instead.

Take Hawaii for example, 60% of its electricity comes from Oil, a large chunk of that is sourced from Russia, but you can bet that market is now closed to Russia, so Russia will need to find markets of that oil, but Hawaii will be on the phone to all the non Russian suppliers.

what will probably happen will be trade in all the commodities affected will become less efficient, and products will be sent on longer routes, and more infrastructure will be built.

it’s going to be a net win for the global shipping industry and infrastructure builders.


----------



## Stockbailx (25 February 2022)

What a bloody mess disgrace to human democracy and humanity. Put a bullet through Putin's head. As Ukrainians run for their lives in shock and dismay...









						Putin oversees massive display of nuclear force
					






					www.9news.com.au


----------



## wayneL (25 February 2022)

FWIW this is a pretty good analysis of Putin's motives by an expat Russian.









						Thread by @KonstantinKisin on Thread Reader App
					

@KonstantinKisin: The "Why You Were Wrong About Ukraine and Will Be Again" Megathread “There will be no invasion,” they said. “Putin is just sabre-rattling,” they told you. “It’s just Biden trying to escalate the si...…




					threadreaderapp.com


----------



## Dona Ferentes (25 February 2022)

wayneL said:


> FWIW this is a pretty good analysis of Putin's motives by an expat Russian.
> 
> 
> 
> ...



I'll dig out a quote by Dostoyevsky that says the same


----------



## Country Lad (25 February 2022)

Dona Ferentes said:


> I'll dig out a quote by Dostoyevsky that says the same



This one? It struck a chord with me many years ago.

_Power is given only to those who dare to lower themselves and pick it up. Only one thing matters, one thing; to be able to dare!_


----------



## sptrawler (25 February 2022)

I just hope the 7th fleet, is still hanging around between Tianjin and Darwin.


----------



## Wedgy (25 February 2022)

It is actually the Russian mafia who are most likely to stop Putin, particularly if their overseas assets are frozen, they would not be happy, particularly in Londongrad.

_"True story of how London became home to the Russian super-rich. A dazzling tale of incredible wealth, ferocious disputes, beautiful women, private jets, mega-yachts, the world’s best footballers – and chauffeur-driven Range Rovers with tinted windows.

A group of buccaneering Russian oligarchs made colossal fortunes after the collapse of communism – and many of them came to London to enjoy their new-found wealth. Londongrad tells for the first time the true story of their journeys from Moscow and St Petersburg to mansions in Mayfair, Knightsbridge and...."
_
_Billions parked in ‘Londongrad’ undermines Britain’s tough talk on Russia sanctions_​_*London:* The ease with which Russian billionaires can stash billions of dollars in property and other assets in London is taking the bite out of the UK’s tough talk on sanctions against Russia for any incursions into Ukraine.

Reports this week that a key piece of legislation designed to fight money-laundering and dirty money inflows into the UK from Russia and elsewhere may be delayed aren’t helping.

As the West strives to take a united stance on possible sanctions, Britain is struggling to shake off its reputation as the place to be for wealthy Russians looking to park their billions – one that has earned the British capital the “Londongrad” moniker. The continued ability to bring funds from Russia into Britain with secret ownership of assets could dent the effectiveness of sanctions, said Tyler Kustra, a professor of politics at the University of Nottingham._


----------



## JohnDe (25 February 2022)

Wedgy said:


> It is actually the Russian mafia who are most likely to stop Putin, particularly if their overseas assets are frozen, they would not be happy, particularly in Londongrad.
> 
> _"True story of how London became home to the Russian super-rich. A dazzling tale of incredible wealth, ferocious disputes, beautiful women, private jets, mega-yachts, the world’s best footballers – and chauffeur-driven Range Rovers with tinted windows.
> 
> ...




Part of the political class and military are the Russian mafia, they condone what is happening and are not affected by the sanctions.


----------



## Logique2 (25 February 2022)

Interest rates affect our market.
What is unleaded now, heading towards $2/litre?
And a shop at the supermarket, that's going up now.
So..inflation, and pressure to tighten monetary policy.


----------



## noirua (25 February 2022)

Russia-Ukraine: Stefanik says Biden's 'weakness' has made world less safe
					

House GOP Conference Chairwoman Elise Stefanik issued tough criticism of President Biden's "failed leadership" after Russia invaded Ukraine despite warnings from the White House and U.S. allies to stand down.




					www.foxnews.com


----------



## noirua (25 February 2022)

Logique2 said:


> Interest rates affect our market.
> What is unleaded now, heading towards $2/litre?
> And a shop at the supermarket, that's going up now.
> So..inflation, and pressure to tighten monetary policy.



The price of petrol in the UK is £1.50 per litre A$2.82 a litre - diesel £1.53 a litre.


----------



## JohnDe (25 February 2022)

noirua said:


> Russia-Ukraine: Stefanik says Biden's 'weakness' has made world less safe
> 
> 
> House GOP Conference Chairwoman Elise Stefanik issued tough criticism of President Biden's "failed leadership" after Russia invaded Ukraine despite warnings from the White House and U.S. allies to stand down.
> ...





Yeah, because this hasn't been brewing for a decade, and the invasion of Crimea wasn't an issue.


----------



## MovingAverage (25 February 2022)

Don't understand European country alliances so apologies if this is a stupid question.

Was looking at an informative map on the WSJ which shows where Russia military is invading Ukraine. Russia is executing a ground troop incursion from Ukraine's north border with Belarus. Presumably these troops will be the ground troops marching in to take Kyiv.

My question: is Belarus complicit and aiding Russia's invasion via the north? I ask this because presumably Belarus has allowed Russian troops to build up in their country on the border with Ukraine in readiness for this invasion.


----------



## divs4ever (25 February 2022)

aren't the Russian Mafia unofficial  contractors of the KGB and GRU   ( just like the CIA utilizes the mob ?? )


----------



## divs4ever (25 February 2022)

MovingAverage said:


> Don't understand European country alliances so apologies if this is a stupid question.
> 
> Was looking at an informative map on the WSJ which shows where Russia military is invading Ukraine. Russia is executing a ground troop incursion from Ukraine's north border with Belarus. Presumably these troops will be the ground troops marching in to take Kyiv.
> 
> My question: is Belarus complicit and aiding Russia's invasion via the north? I ask this because presumably Belarus has allowed Russian troops to build up in their country on the border with Ukraine in readiness for this invasion.



 are they ??  

 we have had the same media  deceiving us over health matters for two years 

 are they 'marching; ( near Belarus ) or cleaning out government and CIA funded 'terrorist ' units and mercenaries ( some of them proudly Neo-Nazi )

 time will tell .. but  this may yet take out the underlying  opposition to Zelensky  in his own government 

 ( Russia has enough helicopters and heavy air transport to get Kiev  in hours/days  , since the government side of the Ukraine is divided and faction-ridden )

 BTW European politics is stupid and greedy  ( nearly all of it )


----------



## dyna (25 February 2022)

The Triangle said:


> Foreign funds now own 81% of all shares listed on Moscow Exchange -bourse
> 
> 
> Global foreign funds increased their holdings of Russian stocks to more than 80% of all shares trading on the Moscow Exchange in the first half of this year, the bourse said on Thursday, attracted by higher dividend yields than in other emerging markets.
> ...



One of those US fund managers chasing the (then) 8% dividend yields was Jeremy Grantham's GMO. It's been a poor performer since 2020 at least, so it's likely to be way under water by now.


----------



## Craton (25 February 2022)

Stockybailz said:


> What a bloody mess disgrace to human democracy and humanity. Put a bullet through Putin's head. As Ukrainians run for their lives in shock and dismay...
> 
> 
> 
> ...



A bloody mess is an understatement...
...and just a reminder about the "character" of comrade Putin, his *cough* palace.


----------



## InsvestoBoy (25 February 2022)

dyna said:


> One of those US fund managers chasing the (then) 8% dividend yields was Jeremy Grantham's GMO. It's been a poor performer since 2020 at least, so it's likely to be way under water by now.





?? last time NYSE listed VanEck Russia ETF RSX was trading an 8% yield was near the 2020 low, from which it nearly tripled... not exactly poor performance.

Make of it what you will but these equities are trading at like 3 times earnings.


----------



## Value Collector (25 February 2022)

MovingAverage said:


> Don't understand European country alliances so apologies if this is a stupid question.
> 
> Was looking at an informative map on the WSJ which shows where Russia military is invading Ukraine. Russia is executing a ground troop incursion from Ukraine's north border with Belarus. Presumably these troops will be the ground troops marching in to take Kyiv.
> 
> My question: is Belarus complicit and aiding Russia's invasion via the north? I ask this because presumably Belarus has allowed Russian troops to build up in their country on the border with Ukraine in readiness for this invasion.



Yes, the leader of Belarus is a pro Russian dictator.

He is the guy that had his fighter jets intercept a civilian commercial airliner that was passing over Belarus, so that he could arrest a journalist that was on board who had written negative articles about him.


----------



## MovingAverage (25 February 2022)

divs4ever said:


> are they ??
> 
> we have had the same media  deceiving us over health matters for two years
> 
> ...




Are you suggesting this is a media fabrication?


----------



## xris (25 February 2022)

Politics isn't my best subject, but I've struggled to fully understand :
how the enemy/aggressors that started WW1 and  WW11 (Germany, Japan)
have become mates and allies of the West (USA/UK/Aust)
while, Russia that fought against Germany has since become the enemy???

That it's OK for the USA to meddle, invade/come to the aid of/bomb at least 26 different countries since WW11;
China, Korea, Guatemala, Indonesia, Cuba, Belgian Congo, Dominican Republic, Peru, Laos, Vietnam, Cambodia, Lebanon, Grenada,  Libya, El Salvador, Iran,  Panama, Iraq, Kuwait, Somalia, Bosnia, Sudan, Afghanistan, Yugoslavia.
<<https://www.thelondoneconomic.com/n...-the-us-has-bombed-since-world-war-ii-172786/>>
and Involving Australia in some of these Korea, Vietnam, Iraq, Kuwait, Somalia, Afghanistan.

But it's NOT OK for Russia to invade/annex/regain Ukraine without US approval.
Crazy isn't it!!!
I'd venture an uneducated guess that a significant part of of the US economy comes from its global peace keeping missions: AKA  wars.
and not surprisingly: according to the World Economic Forum.
The U.S. Department of Defense has been named the largest employer in the world with 3.2 million employees on its payroll,
<<https://www.marketwatch.com/story/us-military-is-the-largest-employer-in-the-world-2015-06-17>>


----------



## wayneL (25 February 2022)

Logique2 said:


> Interest rates affect our market.
> What is unleaded now, heading towards $2/litre?
> And a shop at the supermarket, that's going up now.
> So..inflation, and pressure to tighten monetary policy.



Petrol  is already $199.99 around the corner from me.


----------



## MovingAverage (25 February 2022)

Value Collector said:


> Yes, the leader of Belarus is a pro Russian dictator.
> 
> He is the guy that had his fighter jets intercept a civilian commercial airliner that was passing over Belarus, so that he could arrest a journalist that was on board who had written negative articles about him.




Thanks VC. Explains their push into Ukraine via the north. But this does beg the question whether the international community is also putting in place sanctions against Belarus?


----------



## Value Collector (25 February 2022)

MovingAverage said:


> Thanks VC. Explains their push into Ukraine via the north. But this does beg the question whether the international community is also putting in place sanctions against Belarus?



Yes they are targeting Belarus.

https://home.treasury.gov/news/press-releases/jy0607


----------



## MovingAverage (25 February 2022)

wayneL said:


> Petrol  is already $199.99 around the corner from me.



$199.99....that spiked quickly


----------



## JohnDe (25 February 2022)

xris said:


> Politics isn't my best subject, but I've struggled to fully understand :
> how the enemy/aggressors that started WW1 and  WW11 (Germany, Japan)
> have become mates and allies of the West (USA/UK/Aust)
> while, Russia that fought against Germany has since become the enemy???
> ...




I am surprised that school didn't teach you the history basics. However that doesn't matter, there is a lot written about Stalin and his party's means of public and region control, also the factor that Germany was a common enemy and the hope that Stalin would would change his ways after the war, only for the allies to be fooled.


----------



## Value Collector (25 February 2022)

MovingAverage said:


> Thanks VC. Explains their push into Ukraine via the north. But this does beg the question whether the international community is also putting in place sanctions against Belarus?



Here is a short video talking about the plane that was intercepted.

Belarus seems to make journalists that are antigovernment disappear of explode in car bombs, this guy had escaped Belarus but made the mistake of buying a ticket on a plane that happened to fly over Belarus.


----------



## againsthegrain (25 February 2022)

Value Collector said:


> Yes, the leader of Belarus is a pro Russian dictator.
> 
> He is the guy that had his fighter jets intercept a civilian commercial airliner that was passing over Belarus, so that he could arrest a journalist that was on board who had written negative articles about him.




He has no choice, Lukashenko is Putin’s puppet, much like Yanukovych was in Ukraine. If Lukashenko is toppled Belarus most likely will end up just like Ukraine.

Not to say Lukaszenko is a good guy, he is definately a dictator like his Putin friend, he also tried to flood Europe with 1000s of immigrants promising them easy access to Germany through Poland.  Charging anywhere upto 5k euro per head only to have them stuck in no man's land for months with some dying of starvation.


----------



## Smurf1976 (25 February 2022)

Value Collector said:


> It’s kind of a zero sum game though, Russia is now going to be selling much less stuff into Europe, so what ever extra sales they make to China, will be offset by lost sales to Europe.



They are but there's a difference between commodities sold on the open market versus long term locked in supply deals between producer and buyer.

Don't need USD for a start. Could be priced in any currency of their choice or even bartered.

The commodity is not available to other buyers at any price no matter how high is the other big one. Direct supplier - consumer deals ensure supply for the consumer with the thing subject to the deal simply not being for sale to anyone else unless the consumer doesn't require it. Those without a supply deal find themselves in a rather difficult spot.


----------



## Garpal Gumnut (25 February 2022)

Joe Biden's reaction to Vladimir Vladimirovich's invasion of Ukraine is a fairly typical reaction of the USA to war in Europe over the last 110 years or so. 

The American cousins were late in to WW1 and WW2 and came out of both with large incremental power. They will drag their feet again with Mickey Mouse sanctions over Ukraine.

Eastern Europe, and Western for that matter, is a concoction of states who have been warring and reorganising for 1000 years. Often for silly reasons such as who God is, or the shooting of an Arch Dook or just bloodlust and hate. 

Every war on that continent is unresolved and leads to memories of unforgettable atrocities which in turn begin the next one.

The USA will be slow in to Ukraine and concentrate its fire as it always has in the Pacific and South China Sea. 

gg


----------



## Value Collector (25 February 2022)

Smurf1976 said:


> They are but there's a difference between commodities sold on the open market versus long term locked in supply deals between producer and buyer.
> 
> Don't need USD for a start. Could be priced in any currency of their choice or even bartered.
> 
> The commodity is not available to other buyers at any price no matter how high is the other big one.



What I meant was that if Russian oil and gas gets blocked from entering the EU for example, two things will happen.

1, Russia will be looking for other markets to off load there Oil and Gas.

2, The EU will be looking for other markets to source Oil and Gas.

At the moment China buys a lot of Gas from Australia and the USA, but people are suggesting that China might instead switch to Using Russian Gas.

My point is that if that happens, and Chinese demand for Australian and USA LNG drops, then it wouldn’t be an worry for Australian LNG suppliers, because obviously those LNG shipments that China no longer needs will be in hot demand in the places that don’t want Russian shipments.


----------



## martaart077 (25 February 2022)

Short term Russia and China may support each other and form an alliance of sorts, but throughout contemporary communist histories of both countries, they have suspicion and mistrust of each other. 
Two despots trusting each other does not make for a stable alliance.


----------



## againsthegrain (25 February 2022)

martaart077 said:


> Short term Russia and China may support each other and form an alliance of sorts, but throughout contemporary communist histories of both countries, they have suspicion and mistrust of each other.
> Two despots trusting each other does not make for a stable alliance.




The leaders do,  the people not so much. Russian culture and history is European. The common Russian person would much rather be part of Europe than Asia


----------



## JohnDe (25 February 2022)

_"Through long term foolishness, the US has allowed itself to become very dependent on Russia and China. This dependence has been one of the factors that has kept US inflation low but it means that if Russian sanctions are too severe, then Russia can do far more damage to the US than US can harm Russia.

China has already taken steps to lessen the western impact on Russia by buying more of the country’s gas and wheat. This potentially has a great impact on Australia.

*The US depends on Russia (and Ukraine) for C4F6 gas, neon, palladium and scandium. C4F6 gas is used for etching node logic devices; neon is essential for chip making and palladium is used for computer memory.*

Chips and computers are vital in our technology society and clearly markets expect supply to continue.

*The west’s aerospace industry led by Boeing depends on Russia for titanium. Again to underline the markets confidence that Russia will continue to supply Boeing with titanium*, the airline stock, after an early sell-off recovered most of the lost ground.

But the markets are telling us that there are several areas of global business that are particularly vulnerable to the sanctions. At the top of the list are European and major global banks. European banks were hammered with some falling around eight per cent. On Wall Street, JPMorgan was hit hard and the other big banks suffered. These banks make a lot of money from the Russians and freezing assets in banks reduces confidence in their position as a safe place to leave money."_



			https://www.theaustralian.com.au/business/the-sharemarket-is-in-correction-mode-not-collapse/news-story/0d63be04d661fe87403ce7cbf5eff379


----------



## Garpal Gumnut (25 February 2022)

I believe it is more like snakes n ladders than chess trying to work out the commodity, rare earth and oil movements subsequent to the war in Ukraine. 

Because of globalisation, capital will flow on a needs basis rather than an ideological one.

The West’s reaction to Putin’s moves from a moral standpoint is disgraceful but from economic self interest makes sense.

gg


----------



## JohnDe (25 February 2022)

> Hacker collective Anonymous has disabled several Russian government websites including the state-controlled "Russia Today" news service.
> 
> Hackers identifying with the Anonymous collective announced they had launched cyber operations that briefly took down RT.com, as well as the websites of the Kremlin, the Russian government and the Russian defence ministry websites.
> 
> ...












						Anonymous takes down Kremlin, Russian-controlled media site in cyber attacks
					

Hackers launch cyber attacks against Russian government websites, including state-controlled Russia Today, in response to the Ukraine crisis.




					www.abc.net.au


----------



## MovingAverage (25 February 2022)

Maybe old mate Nostradamus saw Putin's move long ago 

https://www.dailyrecord.co.uk/news/...-2022-predictions-revealed-including-25830071


----------



## Value Collector (25 February 2022)

JohnDe said:


> _"Through long term foolishness, the US has allowed itself to become very dependent on Russia and China. This dependence has been one of the factors that has kept US inflation low but it means that if Russian sanctions are too severe, then Russia can do far more damage to the US than US can harm Russia.
> 
> China has already taken steps to lessen the western impact on Russia by buying more of the country’s gas and wheat. This potentially has a great impact on Australia.
> 
> ...



If you listen to the part at the 1min 18 sec mark of this video, it says that they get their titanium from Australia.

This is precision cast parts, they are the largest parts supplier to the aerospace industries, they are 100% owned by Berkshire Hathaway.


----------



## noirua (25 February 2022)

Should Russia be expelled from the S.W.I.F.T banking system?​








						Should Russia be expelled from the SWIFT banking system?
					

Foreign policy expert weighs in on the possibility of Russia being expelled from the SWIFT banking system.




					www.foxnews.com
				




Is President Biden bowing to Germany to retain Russia in the S.W.I.F.T. banking system?


----------



## divs4ever (25 February 2022)

JohnDe said:


> Anonymous takes down Kremlin, Russian-controlled media site in cyber attacks
> 
> 
> Hackers launch cyber attacks against Russian government websites, including state-controlled Russia Today, in response to the Ukraine crisis.
> ...



 and i bet such actions won't protect anonymous for a millisecond against the West's reprisals for past actions


----------



## StockyGuy (25 February 2022)

Wedgy said:


> Old world diplomacy, when will we learn. There is of course a simple solution, if Ukraine a former prominent member of USSR can join NATO, then why can't Russia, problem solved. Perhaps the world should be run by women, instead of male despots, at least women would not be so keen to send their children to war.




If Aus gets invaded, I hope it's by all female soldiers


----------



## divs4ever (25 February 2022)

noirua said:


> Should Russia be expelled from the SWIFT banking system?​
> 
> 
> 
> ...



 Russia will have prepared alternative  strategies  , the concept  that Russia has been in the 'naughty boy corner ' for so long it plans contingencies for such reprisals well in advance , has completely been ignored by the arrogant globalists 

 starting to a big club in the 'naughty boy corner '  does bullying still work if say all the 'naughty boys ' are 25% of the global economy ( and dependent on nobody )


----------



## divs4ever (25 February 2022)

StockyGuy said:


> If Aus gets invaded, I hope it's by all female soldiers



 i'll settle  for free vodka and tours from Siberian Meat Grinder ( and  several other Russian bands ) and REAL mosh pits again


----------



## noirua (25 February 2022)

What is Swift and what will shutting Russia out of it achieve?
					

Western allies have agreed that ‘selected Russian banks’ will no longer have access to the international payments system




					www.theguardian.com


----------



## noirua (25 February 2022)

Is Germany indirectly supporting Russia?








						Germany is catering to Russia and is a pathetic excuse for a US ally
					

Germany is blocking aid to Ukraine and supporting Russia’s monopolization of gas over Europe.




					nypost.com
				



The Germans, meanwhile, aren’t willing to make even the slightest gesture toward deterring Russia. They are blocking Estonia, a fellow NATO ally, from sending howitzers to Ukraine that originated in Germany. 

Germany has no problem selling weapons all around the world including to the perpetually troubled, Taliban-supporting government in Pakistan and the dictatorship in Egypt.

It is Germany, the laggard of NATO with a deep and growing conflict of interest regarding Russia, that is the weak link — and Putin, unfortunately, knows it.


----------



## wayneL (25 February 2022)

MovingAverage said:


> $199.99....that spiked quickly





noirua said:


> What is Swift and what will shutting Russia out of it achieve?
> 
> 
> Western allies have agreed that ‘selected Russian banks’ will no longer have access to the international payments system
> ...



On







StockyGuy said:


> If Aus gets invaded, I hope it's by all female soldiers



Last week I actually got arrested by a female police officer (long story); if female soldiers are anything like that, I will pass on that idea, thanks very much.


----------



## noirua (25 February 2022)

Japan, Australia, New Zealand impose penalties on Russia following invasion into Ukraine
					

Japan, Australia and New Zealand announced that they would be imposing penalties against Russia after it invaded Ukraine early Thursday.Japan and Australia, both of which had already anno…




					thehill.com


----------



## againsthegrain (25 February 2022)

so putin said it was a peace keeping mission targeting military targets only.... now civilian apartments and houses are getting light up


----------



## wayneL (25 February 2022)

againsthegrain said:


> so putin said it was a peace keeping mission targeting military targets only.... now civilian apartments and houses are getting light up



Mostly peaceful?


----------



## Telamelo (25 February 2022)

Putin wants to/will take over Ukraine completely & put in another government under his control. Then he'll set up military bases all over Ukraine as a deterrent towards NATO/US.

Sanctions won't work against Russia only minimal impact if anything... Putin met Imran Khan of Pakistan today to sign another gas deal. China has eased trade restrictions with Russia as we speak..

Putin has the very best poker hand at the table so to speak as NATO/US are at a loss as to what they can do next - military action not an option either as Russia & China combined would wipe us all out in 24hrs imo


----------



## wayneL (25 February 2022)

Telamelo said:


> Russia & China combined would wipe us all out in 24hrs imo



Notwithstanding the woke weakness in the Western military, I doubt that very much.

Not saying we would win, but I think MAD is still a thing


----------



## Dona Ferentes (25 February 2022)

nice quote:
_During Nicholas I's rule, the tsar was described as Genghis Khan with a telegraph
Then Stalin was called Genghis Khan with a telephone
Now, Putin would likely be called Genghis Khan with the internet (and television for the masses)_



Country Lad said:


> This one? It struck a chord with me many years ago.
> _Power is given only to those who dare to lower themselves and pick it up. Only one thing matters, one thing; to be able to dare!_



Replying : Especially after exile, Dostoyevsky increasingly thought of human life as an eternal struggle between spiritual and material in his grand themes, with Europe embodying the latter while the ascetic Orthodox and obdurate peasant/ serf claiming the former.


> "_We possess the genius of all the peoples and also have our own; thus can understand you and you cannot understand us_" - *Fyodor Mikhailovich *to a French author.



Which is complete hubris, and reflected the separation between the Westward looking elites (Catherine the Great; "_We are a European nation_") to the peasantry and soon-to-be lumpenproletariat.

But this spirituality involved pain and agony:


> "_The most basic spiritual need of the Russian people is the been for suffering, everywhere and in everything. I think the Russian people have been infused with this need since time immemorial. .... There is always an element of suffering even in the happiness of the Russian people, and without it their happiness is incomplete._" - Dostoyevsky




Colin Thubron, traveler, author and Russian speaker, said during a lecture he was giving that he had never met a smiling Russian in the decades of traveling there. The Russians in the audience applauded.

"_*Narod bezmolvstvuyet*_"​


----------



## MovingAverage (25 February 2022)

Telamelo said:


> military action not an option either as Russia & China combined would wipe us all out in 24hrs imo



Yup—and Putin knows this is his upper hand. This is no doubt showing who is the true global super power and it ain’t the US anymore


----------



## Smurf1976 (25 February 2022)

Value Collector said:


> What I meant was that if Russian oil and gas gets blocked from entering the EU for example, two things will happen.
> 
> 1, Russia will be looking for other markets to off load there Oil and Gas.
> 
> ...




What I'm thinking of however is the next move beyond that.

If you've got multiple suppliers tied up under long term contract then you've guaranteed your own physical supply ahead of anyone else, since the resource is off the open market as such, and to the extent you've got a surplus to re-sell you get to set the terms of that sale.

China doesn't buy the crop they buy the farm. They don't buy a ship load of gas they buy the resource still in the ground. Etc. They do it long term. 

I'm seeing this whole thing as partly about the glory days of the USSR but also at least partly about natural resources, trading blocs and so on of which China is a very relevant but not the only party. If so well then those not in the bloc who want to buy those resources are going to have some issues, they'll be getting the leftovers only and can't assume the ability to obtain physical supply simply by paying the market price.

That applies to all relevant resources although gas and oil are very obvious examples.

That's thinking ahead, it's not a 2022 thing but I suspect the war's linked to it ultimately.


----------



## againsthegrain (25 February 2022)

Ukraine is putting up quiet a fight,  whole country of 40m is urged to take up arms.  This will not be a quick war


----------



## xris (25 February 2022)

JohnDe said:


> I am surprised that school didn't teach you the history basics. However that doesn't matter, there is a lot written about Stalin and his party's means of public and region control, also the factor that Germany was a common enemy and the hope that Stalin would would change his ways after the war, only for the allies to be fooled.



Correct JohnDe,
When I went to School, it was all British History. 
and I majored in Science.

I'm also not a regular listener to the news and only found out to day (after my earlier post) that Russia did in fact invade Ukraine two days ago: and I like many do NOT support or condone that action, nor am I surprised at the reaction of the rest of the world, standing on the sidelines watching/talking and hoping the economic sanctions will resolve this.


----------



## waterbottle (25 February 2022)

The blocs are forming..... From The Guardian

Russia will expand trade with Asia to minimise economic effect of sanctions

Russia’s ministry for the economy said it is working on measures to minimise the impact of the sanctions imposed by western countries following the invasion of Ukraine.

The ministry said this will include plans to expand trade and economic ties with Asia, Reuters reports.

The ministry said:

We understand that the sanctions pressure we have faced since 2014 will now intensify.

The rhetoric of some of our foreign colleagues was such that we have been ready for potential new sanctions for a long time


----------



## Smurf1976 (25 February 2022)

wayneL said:


> Petrol is already $199.99 around the corner from me.



Servo near me current prices:

91 = 199.7
95 = 214.8
98 = 223.9
Diesel = 179.9
LPG = 99.9

This will add to CPI no doubt.


----------



## waterbottle (25 February 2022)

Just to add to the above RE: blocs, Russia has already chosen both India & China as trading partners for agricultural + oil & gas products.

Meanwhile, Russia now retaliating with their own set of sanctions against the West.

The response from IMOEX.ME is positive, up 12% so far...


----------



## Value Collector (25 February 2022)

Smurf1976 said:


> What I'm thinking of however is the next move beyond that.
> 
> If you've got multiple suppliers tied up under long term contract then you've guaranteed your own physical supply ahead of anyone else, since the resource is off the open market as such, and to the extent you've got a surplus to re-sell you get to set the terms of that sale.
> 
> ...



China is also quite happy to rip up long term contracts if they feel they no longer require your resource, look at their ban on Coal.

But the coal industry survived, they market just shifted, China started hoovering up shipments for other places, leaving other export markets open to accept our coal.


----------



## noirua (26 February 2022)

Gunfire, explosions erupt inside Ukrainian capital as Russian forces advance on Kyiv: LIVE UPDATES
					

It's war: Russia launched a three-pronged invasion of Ukraine, targeting Kyiv, attacking the second-largest city Kharkov, and bringing in troops from Crimea. US, UK say Russia moving 'slower than expected' as army moves into capital city.




					www.foxnews.com


----------



## noirua (26 February 2022)

Ukrainian marine sacrifices himself to blow up bridge, Ukrainian Military says
					

Ukrainian marine allegedly blows himself up to destroy bridge Russian forces could cross it. Vitaliy Volodymyrovych Skakun is being remembered as a hero.




					www.foxnews.com
				



The General Staff of the Armed Forces of Ukraine released the statement Friday via social media, reporting that Vitaliy Volodymyrovych Skakun, a battalion engineer, had voluntarily undertaken a mission to mine out the support structure of the Genichesky Bridge near the Kyiv before Russian forces could cross it. Shakun did not have time to flee the blast zone before detonating the explosives, and informed his battalion that he would be blowing it up regardless.


----------



## Telamelo (26 February 2022)

This Ukraine war crisis ain't over as only just started flaring/heating up - regardless of US market's pumping higher overnight with Dow up +835 points & Gold down -$36 at roughly US $1,890 it will only be short lived.

We are on the verge of escalating tensions & a bigger conflict developing.. as this occurs/eventuates we all know how fast gold price shoots up - I'll be topping up on my Goldie's on Monday.

Last opportunity to get into Gold sub US $1,900 imo as the so called "King of the North" i.e. Putin ramps up his agression in conjunction with China against the West.

Watch for military action & takeover of Taiwan to occur soon imo

Watch for Iran vs Israel tensions & escalation to occur soon - yes Putin will step in to take action against Israel ("King of the North" will surround Israel to destroy it)... watch for war to extend into the rest of Europe

Watch for hunger & famine along with tens of millions of refugees fleeing from escalating war/conflicts around the globe.

Watch for our monetary system in the West to collapse - only a matter of time with all the debt the US has that FED will ultimately fail big time. It will come sudden and as a shock - then you'll see Gold shine brighter than ever before!!!


----------



## Dona Ferentes (26 February 2022)

*Sergey Yevgenyevich Naryshkin* (Russian: Серге́й Евге́ньевич Нары́шкин)
reckon he's still hot a job?


----------



## MovingAverage (26 February 2022)

Telamelo said:


> We are on the verge of escalating tensions & a bigger conflict developing..




So long as Germany keeps blocking certain NATO actions then this may not escalate.


----------



## againsthegrain (26 February 2022)

Putin is gone crazy possible unstable. The next step would be to really test nato with Latvia/Estonia who are nato members but have Russian minority populations.
Russian provocators have been drumming it that western soldiers will not die on eastern soil.

If this is true his next move would be former Eastern bloc countries.

Seems unthinkable at this time


----------



## Dona Ferentes (26 February 2022)

OSINT. open-source intelligence  on Twitter
@OSINTtechnical
@kofmanmichael
@conflicts
@bellingcat

well trolled by the ruskies in return


----------



## Stockbailx (26 February 2022)




----------



## JohnDe (26 February 2022)

Stockybailz said:


> View attachment 138202
> 
> 
> View attachment 138203
> ...




I’m not convinced that the US share market is going to get hit as bad as the European market, if anything, European investors may transfer their wealth out of their markets and into US and others.


----------



## moXJO (26 February 2022)

JohnDe said:


> I’m not convinced that the US share market is going to get hit as bad as the European market, if anything, European investors may transfer their wealth out of their markets and into US and others.



 Everything looks overpriced to me. It has for a long time. Who knew the possible black Swan would be war.


----------



## MovingAverage (26 February 2022)

Biden says the US sanctions will come into effect in 30 days…no wonder Putin isn’t afraid of the west


----------



## waterbottle (26 February 2022)

Add to that their reluctance to exclude Russia from SWIFT, although Italy has now agreed and Germany is considering it.


----------



## divs4ever (26 February 2022)

wayneL said:


> Mostly peaceful?



 WELL  !! ... by Antifa standards  and US MSM  descriptions   it might count as an information spreading campaign 

 they might consider their  own version  of CHAZ  ( with a K  for Kiev  ) that seemed acceptable in some political circles


----------



## divs4ever (26 February 2022)

waterbottle said:


> Add to that their reluctance to exclude Russia from SWIFT, although Italy has now agreed and Germany is considering it.



 if Russia is not trading in US ( and probably not in euros  in the near term ) why would they need SWIFT , it's only transactions between robber banks anyway  , i'm sure Russia will sell for gold if asked


----------



## Logique2 (26 February 2022)

This just in from CNN,
(with a nod to the Peoples Republic of Canada):

'..A mostly peaceful invasion, 
however authorities remain vigilant in case of Russian truckers honking their horns, or elderly Russian women moving about with walking frames..'


----------



## MovingAverage (26 February 2022)

waterbottle said:


> Add to that their reluctance to exclude Russia from SWIFT, although Italy has now agreed and Germany is considering it.



Germany is also stopping a number of neighbouring countries providing Ukraine with military hardware


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## waterbottle (26 February 2022)

divs4ever said:


> if Russia is not trading in US ( and probably not in euros  in the near term ) why would they need SWIFT , it's only transactions between robber banks anyway  , i'm sure Russia will sell for gold if asked




Because it cuts Russia off entirely from the financial world. That is, all aspects of Russian society, which in turn would result in political pressure.

Germany argues that there is too much collateral damage to Russian society by targeting SWIFT, but the cynic in me thinks that they don't really care about the Russian citizens - they just want to protect their access to Russian oil & gas.
Interestingly, the other excuse that is trotted out is that targetting SWIFT is too harsh a first-line measure. To their credit, the US & UK were pushing for exclusion on day 1.

The approaches to date have been piecemeal and weak. What do they have to show for it? Putin is now at Ukraine's capital, and although the Ukranian's have managed to successfully defend themselves to date, how is the global community expecting them to continue to do so when Russia has captured key airports, has warships in the black sea, soldiers ready to Ukraine's north, a  DPR/LPR-wannabe group in Moldova to Ukraine's west, and the capital surrounded.

All in 2 days.

Keep in mind the US took 3 weeks to get to Baghdad with the assistance of aircraft carriers and regular bombing runs (1000 per day)...


----------



## MovingAverage (26 February 2022)

Why Germany is Undermining NATO Unity on Russia


----------



## waterbottle (26 February 2022)

Looks like now Cyprus is also on board with SWIFT ban. 
That leaves Hungary +/- Germany.


----------



## Garpal Gumnut (26 February 2022)

Dona Ferentes said:


> *Sergey Yevgenyevich Naryshkin* (Russian: Серге́й Евге́ньевич Нары́шкин)
> reckon he's still hot a job?



I reckon the ole Sergey Yevgenyevich will be growing potatoes in the permafrost come July.

gg


----------



## Captain_Chaza (26 February 2022)

Let me say that
"This Captain is in Full support of Excluding Russia from the "SWIFT"
But More importantly
I agree that ALL of Putin's wealth should be seized .

This includes ALL of his 50% silent interests/ holdings with his good mates "The Oligarchs"
IMHO They never got their 50% unless he got his 50%

Are the Oligarchs also responsible  for these War Crimes
I Say YES!
and all their assets should be  SEIZED along with Putin's  Wife's, his Children's, his family's  and even everyone he has ever talked to in the street

Let's See what China does next?
Crikey!
IMHO He is a silent partner of ~50% in each and every Oligarch's Monopoly
 Just ask yourself
How do you  think Putin's OLIGARCHS rose to the Level of OLIGARCH?

All I am Saying is 
"Seize all the assets of the Oligarchy ALSO!"


----------



## JohnDe (26 February 2022)

waterbottle said:


> Add to that their reluctance to exclude Russia from SWIFT, although Italy has now agreed and Germany is considering it.



Germany outright disagreed with the SWIFT option


----------



## Telamelo (26 February 2022)

Putin would've already known beforehand about all of these retaliation measures being imposed such as sanctions, the seizing of assets, freezing bank accounts/credit facilities etc. so he would have planned/prepared for this. I think Biden has underestimated Putin to be honest.


----------



## noirua (26 February 2022)

The blood and destruction of lives in war!









						Russia 'prepared to use thermobaric bombs on Ukrainian civilians'
					

Western officials believe Russian troops are aiming to encircle Kyiv and overthrow the democratically-elected government.




					www.aol.co.uk


----------



## wayneL (26 February 2022)

waterbottle said:


> Looks like now Cyprus is also on board with SWIFT ban.
> That leaves Hungary +/- Germany.



Ah yes, Cypress, that bastion of ethical banking: 









						The Cyprus Bank 'Bail-In' Is Another Crony Bankster Scam
					

When super-senior depositors experience 50%+ losses, you know a crime has been committed.




					www.forbes.com


----------



## JohnDe (27 February 2022)

Telamelo said:


> Putin would've already known beforehand about all of these retaliation measures being imposed such as sanctions, the seizing of assets, freezing bank accounts/credit facilities etc. so he would have planned/prepared for this. I think Biden has underestimated Putin to be honest.




Most of Europe have for a decade or more, even with evidence of Russian secret service assassinations in countries across the globe.


----------



## noirua (27 February 2022)

Ukraine-Russia war: Kyiv still standing on Day 3, Zelenskyy refuses to leave country
					

Zelenskyy refused to leave the country despite U.S. plans to evacuate him in a worst-case scenario as Russian forces advance on Kyiv.




					www.foxnews.com


----------



## noirua (27 February 2022)

Сайт
					

Офіційний портал КМДА - Головна




					kyivcity.gov.ua
				











						Київська міська державна адміністрація - КМДА
					

Київська міська державна адміністрація - КМДА, Kyiv, Ukraine. 73,790 likes · 3,996 talking about this · 20,613 were here. Офіційна сторінка Київської міської державної адміністрації у мережі Facebook.




					www.facebook.com
				




Google translate works well.


----------



## waterbottle (27 February 2022)

Looks like Russia will be cut off from SWIFT after all









						Kyiv: full consensus for disconnecting Russia from SWIFT has been achieved, the process has begun
					

Russia will be disconnected from the international payment system SWIFT. The official decision has not yet been formalized, but technical preparations for the adoption and implementation of this step have already begun, said Ukrainian Foreign Minister Dmytro Kuleba on his Facebook page. "We...




					www.uawire.org


----------



## noirua (27 February 2022)

Ukraine invasion: Russia 'increasingly frustrated' by lack of momentum: US defense official
					

As Ukraine enters its third day of Russian bombardment following President Vladimir Putin’s invasion this week, a senior defense official said Saturday that Moscow has become "increasingly frustrated" by the lack of momentum.




					www.foxnews.com


----------



## JohnDe (27 February 2022)

“The first casualty of war is the truth”​


----------



## divs4ever (27 February 2022)

so .. you want Russia to transact with whoever they like  ,  , interesting 

 i bet North Korea  will be a little happier to hear that ,  so might Iran  and several  other 'rogue nations ' 

 given Russia's double-back on crypto-currencies even the crypto-folk  might be  happy  Russia will be much more impressive than Salvador  as a poster child 

 Russia ( and China ) are already happy to  do direct goods swaps  , i wonder if others would like that  option


----------



## Country Lad (27 February 2022)

JohnDe said:


> Germany outright disagreed with the SWIFT option



A complete turnaround, Europe agrees to cut off Russia from Swift and Germany is sending lethal military supplies to Ukraine. Pity this was not done a bit earlier as the supplies will now be difficult to distribute.


----------



## JohnDe (27 February 2022)

Country Lad said:


> A complete turnaround, Europe agrees to cut off Russia from Swift and Germany is sending lethal military supplies to Ukraine. Pity this was not done a bit earlier as the supplies will now be difficult to distribute.




Yes, it does appear that Europe is finally awake, however it will take many years to catch up.

_“I’m so angry at ourselves for our historical failure. After Georgia, Crimea, and Donbas, we have not prepared anything that would have really deterred Putin,” Ms Kramp-Karrenbauer said, referring to incursions carried out by Russia while Mrs Merkel was in power._​​_Her outburst came as the *chief of the German land army*, Alfons Mais, wrote that *“the options we can offer to politicians to support (NATO) are extremely limited”.*_​


> Germany to hike military spending in face of Russian menace​
> The German government has promised to increase military spending after defence chiefs laid bare the “extremely limited” resources of Europe’s biggest economy in helping to push back against Russia’s invasion of Ukraine.
> Finance Minister Christian Lindner said it was time for a “turning point” in German defence investment, long a target of criticism by Western allies.
> 
> ...








__





						Loading...
					





					www.theaustralian.com.au


----------



## MovingAverage (27 February 2022)

Country Lad said:


> A complete turnaround, Europe agrees to cut off Russia from Swift and Germany is sending lethal military supplies to Ukraine. Pity this was not done a bit earlier as the supplies will now be difficult to distribute.



Will be very interesting to see how history judges this


----------



## Telamelo (27 February 2022)

There are 9 countries close to & around Ukraine that in the past 10-15 year's have joined NATO where military bases have been set up in as a deterrent/threat to Russia - the only country still missing from this region is Ukraine itself - reason why the US & NATO really wanted to get Ukraine added to NATO - that way Russia would be completely circled from the south west to the north west by NATO/US alliance countries.

So Putin feels threatened by NATO & the West as he sees this as provocation at his door step so to speak - imagine Russia doing the same & circling America - would America just sit back & let it happen !?!? Surely not.

Putin decided to take matters into his hand as a result & try to re-claim Ukraine as the jigsaw puzzle country Russia couldn't afford to let NATO take control of.

Also, the US simply don't want Russia supplying oil & gas to Europe - can't have Russia being close to Europe supplying much needed gas to them !? that is too kind of them to do so helping out Europe in this way.

So another reason for the unfortunate escalation of Ukraine crisis that we see.

I hate war and unfortunately mankind hasn't learnt anything from previous war's - there are no winner's in war ever just misery & devastation. It's quite terrible & sad to see that mankind can't live peacefully together.

We really are a stupid species when you look at history & repeated mistakes we continually make thinking agression & war is the solution.


----------



## MovingAverage (27 February 2022)

Telamelo said:


> There are 9 countries close to & around Ukraine that in the past 10-15 year's have joined NATO where military bases have been set up in as a deterrent/threat to Russia - the only country still missing from this region is Ukraine itself - reason why the US & NATO really wanted to get Ukraine added to NATO - that way Russia would be completely circled from the south west to the north west by NATO/US alliance countries.
> 
> So Putin feels threatened by NATO & the West as he sees this as provocation at his door step so to speak - imagine Russia doing the same & circling America - would America just sit back & let it happen !?!? Surely not.
> 
> ...



Germany has been a long time opponent of allowing Ukraine to join NATO


----------



## JohnDe (27 February 2022)

MovingAverage said:


> Germany has been a long time opponent of allowing Ukraine to join NATO




So have others.

13 Jan 2022 - 



> *NATO Won’t Let Ukraine Join Soon. Here’s Why.*
> Ukraine, with Russian troops on its borders, is pressing for membership. But President Biden and European leaders are not ready for that step.
> 
> The tense talks this week among the United States, Russia and European members of the North Atlantic Treaty Organization have made one thing clear: While the Biden administration insists it will not allow Moscow to quash Ukraine’s ambitions to join NATO, it has no immediate plans to help bring the former Soviet republic into the alliance.
> ...













						NATO Won’t Let Ukraine Join Soon. Here’s Why.
					

Ukraine has pressed for membership to defend against Russia. But President Biden and European leaders are not ready for that step.




					www.nytimes.com


----------



## JohnDe (27 February 2022)

And from February 16, 2021 -

_Why is Ukraine still not in NATO?_​​_In a recent interview with Axios on HBO, Ukraine’s President Volodymyr Zelenskyy said he would like to ask US President Joe Biden, “Why is Ukraine still not in NATO?”_​​_President Zelenskyy’s question generated a lot of debate and ended up reaching a wide audience. Ever since, Ukrainian journalists have been asking me, “So why is Ukraine still not in NATO?” As I answered this question for the third or fourth time, I realized how satisfied I actually was with the way this discussion is evolving._​​_Why, indeed, is Ukraine not in NATO? _​​_Today’s Ukraine is not only a security recipient, but a security donor in its region. Ukraine has been successfully countering Russian aggression for almost seven years now, protecting not only itself but a wider region between the Baltic and Black Seas. Ukraine has gained invaluable experience deterring Russian aggression on the traditional military battlefield and in the realm of hybrid warfare, which extends from cyber to disinformation and beyond. These factors would appear to make Ukraine a strong candidate for NATO membership._​​_That is the rational side to answering President Zelenskyy’s question. However, there is also an emotional side to consider. Perhaps the best way to understand this dialectic is by adopting a neuroscientific approach and exploring both the rational and the emotional approaches to Ukraine’s future membership in NATO._​​_Any rational analysis would include the need to further elevate the interoperability of the Ukrainian armed forces with their NATO colleagues. It would involve completing the implementation of NATO standards and continuing with the broader process of Euro-Atlantic reforms._​​_This is a challenging to-do list, but all of these stated objectives are absolutely achievable. Indeed, Ukraine has already made considerable progress along this path since 2014, and the process has recently gained added momentum in many areas._​​_The emotional side of the equation is far less straightforward. A combination of myths and fears immediately activates whenever the words “Ukraine” and “NATO” appear in the same sentence. Frequently, this hurricane of emotions overrides all logic or reason. Unlike the entirely rational to-do list, this emotional response is dangerously misleading and must be addressed accordingly._​​_In recent years, Russia has combined military operations with disinformation campaigns that are designed to justify its aggressive actions. A key theme has been the idea of a fundamentally defensive Russia forced to protect its borders from “NATO expansion.”_​​_This entire narrative is based on long-debunked claims of a “pledge” made by the West to the Soviet Union not to expand NATO eastwards following the fall of the Berlin Wall. According to the Russian version of events, US Secretary of State James Baker promised Soviet leader Mikhail Gorbachev in 1990 that NATO would not move east if the USSR allowed the reunification of East and West Germany._​​_Archive documents prove that no such pledge was ever made. Even Gorbachev himself stated in October 2014 that the topic was not discussed at the time._​​_This makes sense. In early 1990, nobody would have considered the possibility of any Warsaw Pact countries even theoretically aspiring to NATO membership. Instead, the only discussions on NATO enlargement referred specifically to East Germany._​​_This somewhat primitive yet entirely characteristic deception has allowed Moscow to promote the myth of a duplicitous and expansionist NATO. Meanwhile, Russia is conveniently cast in the role of victim, forced to protect itself by occupying the lands of its neighbors. Unfortunately, many people around the world continue to be taken in by this hoax._​​_The myth of a besieged Russia gallantly defending itself against expansionist NATO forms a central part of the broader argument that the Western world should seek to avoid “provoking” Russia. One key lesson of the 2000s and 2010s is that nothing invites Kremlin aggression more than calls “not to provoke” Russia._​​_In reality, Moscow has always been good at selling fear. We should listen to Russia’s signals carefully, but we must not allow those signals to guide our hand on strategic decisions. In neuroscientific terms, Russia has always stimulated the limbic emotional system of NATO allies, while Ukraine has appealed to their frontal rational lobes. The limbic system is important, but it is the frontal lobes that move mankind forward..........._​








						Why is Ukraine still not in NATO?
					

Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy said recently that he'd like to ask US President Joe Biden, "Why is Ukraine still not in NATO?" Ukraine's Foreign Minister Dmytro Kuleba agrees that this question has never been more pertinent.




					www.atlanticcouncil.org


----------



## Country Lad (27 February 2022)

Telamelo said:


> imagine Russia doing the same & circling America - would America just sit back & let it happen !?!? Surely not.



Could easily encircle part of it.  Flush with success maybe Putin will be silly enough to want Alaska back. Soon, with climate change, he can invade Alaska by rowboat.


----------



## JohnDe (27 February 2022)

Enviromental crimes -

Russians blow up oil depot south of Kyiv​Ukraine media is reporting that Russian forces have bombed an oil depot at Vasylkiv, 40km south of Kyiv.​​Local authorities are urging residents to shut their windows as toxic smoke is sent into the air.​​Vasylkiv mayor Nataliia Balasynovych has confirmed the explosion at the oil depot.​​​


----------



## Telamelo (27 February 2022)

Moscow may respond to Western sanctions by opting out of the last nuclear arms deal with the United States, cutting diplomatic ties with Western nations, and freezing their assets, a senior Russian official warned.

The threat on Saturday by former President Dmitry Medvedev came as Russia’s ties with the West sank to new lows over its invasion of Ukraine.









						Senior Russian security official issues stark threats to the West
					

Former President Dmitry Medvedev says Moscow may respond to sanctions by freezing personal assets.




					www.aljazeera.com


----------



## JohnDe (27 February 2022)

What a mess we've got ourselves into. Both Russia and China have no democratic system that allows the people to change governments, both nations have been empowered by our hunger for cheap raw material, goods and labour. Now we're at the point where both countries have weaponised to the point that their confidence of overpowering the west is stronger than our confidence in being able to stop them. Our strongest weapon is sanctions and to stop trade. However, this is also a weapon that could explode in our face. 
Create more pain than both Russia and China are willing to accept and we could be forcing some sort of retaliation that resembles 1941:
_Responding to Japanese occupation of key airfields in Indochina (July 24) following an agreement between Japan and Vichy France, the U.S. froze Japanese assets on July 26, 1941, and on August 1 established an embargo on oil and gasoline exports to Japan. Background to conflict_​​Hopefully all world leaders can sit down together and create a united front for the citizens of the world, and bring some rationality to this situation, and the Russian and Chinese people voice that world peace is the only outcome.



> Mr Xi may feel comfortable about showing solidarity with Mr Putin because any Western sanctions imposed on Russia will probably have only limited effects on its economic relationship with China. Mr Gabuev says he would expect China to adhere to the legal requirements of any Western sanctions, such as not banking with blacklisted oligarchs. Nonetheless China will find plenty of ways to keep business flowing. Huawei, a Chinese telecoms giant, should be able to sell 5gtechnology to Russia, whereas Ericsson and Nokia, two Western competitors, may be locked out. China’s development banks can lend to Russian enterprises with less fear of running afoul of financial sanctions targeting commercial lending. And the two countries have steadily reduced their reliance on the dollar to settle trade, part of Russia’s efforts to insulate itself from American sanctions.
> 
> But there are risks to Mr Xi’s cosying up to Mr Putin. Writing in Foreign Affairs, Jude Blanchette and Bonny Lin of the Centre for Strategic and International Studies, a think-tank, argue that a “tighter Beijing-Moscow axis would further encourage China’s rivals to balance against it”. That includes Europe, where attitudes appear to have hardened since February 4th. Jens Stoltenberg, secretary-general of nato, on February 15th described the “two authoritarian powers” as “operating together”.
> 
> ...




Xi Jinping drew closer to Russia on the eve of war in Ukraine


----------



## divs4ever (27 February 2022)

ACTUALLY some in the US might think the same   after the 2020  elections


JohnDe said:


> Both Russia and China have no democratic system that allows the people to change government





 i know a few    are searching far and deep looking at the alternatives to OUR two-party preferred system 

 interesting times  , to be sure 

 those 'world leaders' recently( mostly ) failed  to beat a virus ... good luck trying to handle a grumpy gent with a nuclear arsenal ( and a few other war toys to boot )

 of course there is a school pf thought that thinks  these are all  just distractions from the current economic collapse


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## DannyB0000 (27 February 2022)

Not that I'm barracking for the Russians, I hope their incursion into Ukraine is another Vietnam war moment for them.  I think the current sanctions levelled at the Russians are a double standard.  Why didn't the same sanctions apply to Western governments when they illegally invaded Iraq in 2003, shock and awe bombings and again in Afghanistan 2 years earlier.  The Americans wanted regime change in Iraq similar to what the Russians want in Ukraine.

 Americans lied to the international community about Iraq possessing WMDs to justify invading that country similar to the Russians saying their incursion into Ukraine was a peace keeping mission.


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## JohnDe (27 February 2022)

DannyB0000 said:


> Not that I'm barracking for the Russians, I hope their incursion into Ukraine is another Vietnam war moment for them.  I think the current sanctions levelled at the Russians are a double standard.  Why didn't the same sanctions apply to Western governments when they illegally invaded Iraq in 2003, shock and awe bombings and again in Afghanistan 2 years earlier.  The Americans wanted regime change in Iraq similar to what the Russians want in Ukraine.
> 
> Americans lied to the international community about Iraq possessing WMDs to justify invading that country similar to the Russians saying their incursion into Ukraine was a peace keeping mission.




Some truth in your comments, Iraq war should not have happened. However it did and a murderous dictatorship was removed, and the Iraq citizens given the right to choose their own destiny by cooperation and voting.


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## Macquack (27 February 2022)

divs4ever said:


> ACTUALLY *some in the US* might think the same   after the 2020  elections
> 
> 
> 
> ...



There are a few here on ASF that reckon the US is a undemocratic dictatorship. In particular DB008 is hell bent on overturning the 2020 US election result. Good luck with than one.


----------



## divs4ever (27 February 2022)

JohnDe said:


> Some truth in your comments, Iraq war should not have happened. However it did and a murderous dictatorship was removed, and the Iraq citizens given the right to choose their own destiny by cooperation and voting.





 BUT he was the US's murderous dictator friend ( because the US sold those WMDs  so he could misuse them   inside and outside of his country .. and not a whisper of a sanction for doing so )

 until he invaded Kuwait  everything was just peachy , and AFTER Kuwait  they realized  he was the best leader the West could tolerate  , so let him stay longer 

 well 2020 was so off the rails  you must wonder how long have the elections been rigged ( less obviously  ) and by BOTH sides  , take for example Dr. Ron Paul's run for President


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## divs4ever (27 February 2022)

Macquack said:


> There are a few here on ASF that reckon the US is a undemocratic dictatorship. In particular DB008 is hell bent on overturning the 2020 US election result. Good luck with than one.



 overturned ??

 abandoned  , and try to make sure NO ONE cheats   in the election ( at any level )



 but don't worry  there had been plenty of dubious result well before 2020 , it was just 2020 was so obvious  ( had Sanders won , many Americans would have grumbled , but accepted the results more easily )


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## JohnDe (27 February 2022)

Macquack said:


> There are a few here on ASF that reckon the US is a undemocratic dictatorship. In particular DB008 is hell bent on overturning the 2020 US election result. Good luck with than one.




I think that some just don't understand how the US political system works, and maybe ours as well. Both two very different systems, but everyone's an expert on both.


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## divs4ever (27 February 2022)

JohnDe said:


> I think that some just don't understand how the US political system works, and maybe ours as well. Both two very different systems, but everyone's an expert on both.



 what i understand is neither system is working properly , currently 

 we have politicians when we need STATESMEN (  and women ) ,  the wrong people  have got the steering wheel ( and many would agree the consultants  need a new broom through them as well )


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## Captain_Chaza (27 February 2022)

There is no other way to avoid a Nuclear WAR here 
or  In the very near future

Putin must Go!
AND
He  must be GONE in a great hurry!

Has Anybody got any good ideas?


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## rederob (27 February 2022)

Captain_Chaza said:


> Putin must Go!
> AND
> He  must be GONE in a great hurry!
> 
> Has Anybody got any good ideas?



Could this work:


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## divs4ever (27 February 2022)

Captain_Chaza said:


> There is no other way to avoid a Nuclear WAR here
> or  In the very near future
> 
> Putin must Go!
> ...



 there is a very big chance removing Putin would increase the risk  , you have 80 former intelligence officers in the Russian Parliament  , so there is a solid chance  a replacement could be more hawkish than Putin 

and non-military man Medvedev  was the one who ordered the tanks into Georgia  , so he probably isn't a soft-touch either 

 careful what you wish for 

 a power vacuum with that many nukes  in the toy-box  is REALLY dangerous


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## MovingAverage (27 February 2022)

divs4ever said:


> there is a very big chance removing Putin would increase the risk  , you have 80 former intelligence officers in the Russian Parliament  , so there is a solid chance  a replacement could be more hawkish than Putin
> 
> and non-military man Medvedev  was the one who ordered the tanks into Georgia  , so he probably isn't a soft-touch either
> 
> ...



Same **** happened when the US took out Saddam—things got a lot worst when he was gone. Better the devil you know…


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## Captain_Chaza (27 February 2022)

I Promise You
"This time will be different!"

There is no end in sight if Putin lives


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## JohnDe (27 February 2022)

divs4ever said:


> what i understand is neither system is working properly , currently
> 
> we have politicians when we need STATESMEN (  and women ) ,  the wrong people  have got the steering wheel ( and many would agree the consultants  need a new broom through them as well )




That depends on how you lean politically.

The Australian system is robust and works quite well, there is no signs of a coup d'état, no rioting on the streets, no revolution. We have the occasional healthy protest and street marches, but that is what democracy is about - the freedom to express our views. The US riots on capital hill was a shock and very scary but it was only a few thousand people from a population of 250 million people not happy with the outcome of an election. The conspiracy theorists on the run shouting that the sky is falling.

The majority of those that complain are the ones that did not get the person they voted for, or believe that they pay too much tax, or don't agree with changes, and so on. It is the same old that has happened for milenia.

There is no other country that I would rather live in than one with a democracy such as ours, the UK, the USA, France, and so on.


----------



## JohnDe (27 February 2022)




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## basilio (27 February 2022)

Markets open tomorrow. The Russian stock market will be slaughtered. The financial squeezes on Russia will crimp trade and investment. The situation in Ukraine is (literally...) still explosive.

On the upside there seems to be a wave of euphoria around the world with the plucky defiance of Ukraine  holding fast against   overwhelming odds.

So which way wlll the markets run? Into the red with fears of widespread economic turmoil or holding fast with positive sentiment around the Ukraine resistance ? Thoughts ? Reactions ?


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## DannyB0000 (27 February 2022)

JohnDe said:


> Some truth in your comments, Iraq war should not have happened. However it did and a murderous dictatorship was removed, and the Iraq citizens given the right to choose their own destiny by cooperation and voting.



True but what gives one country the right to invade another because they don’t approve who their political leader is and how their citizens vote, we can’t force democracy down their throats.

How would would we feel if China invaded Australia for example and removed our political leaders in favour of Communism ?.  China installed a puppet leader instead with pro Beijing views similar to Hong Kong.

Kim Jong Un is an evil, murderous person to but no one is going to try pick a fight with North Korea with nukes involved


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## MovingAverage (27 February 2022)

basilio said:


> Markets open tomorrow. The Russian stock market will be slaughtered. The financial squeezes on Russia will crimp trade and investment. The situation in Ukraine is (literally...) still explosive.
> 
> On the upside there seems to be a wave of euphoria around the world with the plucky defiance of Ukraine  holding fast against   overwhelming odds.
> 
> So which way wlll the markets run? Into the red with fears of widespread economic turmoil or holding fast with positive sentiment around the Ukraine resistance ? Thoughts ? Reactions ?



Interesting article in the WSJ over the weekend indicating the fed is now unlikely to bring in the previously expected rate rise in March because of the Ukrainian war. That is why the US market popped on Friday. So my guess is that this week may not be too bad on the ASX as I suspect the market is more concerned about a rate rise than the Ukrainian war.


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## noirua (27 February 2022)

Fox News
					

America is Watching.




					www.foxnews.com
				



EXCLUSIVE: Trump's response when asked if he has a message for Putin​


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## divs4ever (27 February 2022)

MovingAverage said:


> Interesting article in the WSJ over the weekend indicating the fed is now unlikely to bring in the previously expected rate rise in March because of the Ukrainian war. That is why the US market popped on Friday. So my guess is that this week may not be too bad on the ASX as I suspect the market is more concerned about a rate rise than the Ukrainian war.



 i still have some sell orders in the market  .. in theory well away from the action  ... but you never know  in the current market 

 ( i am ABSOLUTELY concerned about the rates  )


----------



## xris (27 February 2022)

A timely distraction from the Daily COVID news.


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## xris (28 February 2022)

JohnDe said:


> What a mess we've got ourselves into. Both Russia and China have no democratic system that allows the people to change governments, .................



Events in the past 50-60 yrs in our DEMOCRATIC country (Australia) and many others have led me to conclude that we the people vote for the 'dictator of their choice'  every 3-4 yrs. Once in power they often do things without Majority Approval 
e.g. Menzies who took us to war in Korea, Malaysia, Indonesia and Vietnam: 
Howard who took us to war in Afghanistan and Iraq: and his Core and Non-Core Promises
and now Morrison/Dutton are threatening to take us to war against China (over Taiwan)

I liken the difference between Politicians of different political parties, like Lions vs Tigers, vs Panthers vs Cheetahs or Crocodiles vs Alligators vs Sharks:  they all prey on the masses. 
and whether you get bitten by a Black Snake, Brown Snake, Tiger Snake, Copperhead, you're $%#&&ed


----------



## JohnDe (28 February 2022)

xris said:


> Events in the past 50-60 yrs in our DEMOCRATIC country (Australia) and many others have led me to conclude that we the people vote for the 'dictator of their choice'  every 3-4 yrs. Once in power they often do things without Majority Approval
> e.g. Menzies who took us to war in Korea, Malaysia, Indonesia and Vietnam:
> Howard who took us to war in Afghanistan and Iraq: and his Core and Non-Core Promises
> and now Morrison/Dutton are threatening to take us to war against China (over Taiwan)
> ...




Your politics is visible through your omission (take note of post #339)

Bob Hawke lied about sending forces to Gulf War

As for how you determine what a dictator is, there is plenty of easily accessible reference material.

*dictator*​​*a leader who has complete power in a country and has not been elected by the people*​
The Australian voter always has the power to vote for their MP and government.


----------



## Telamelo (28 February 2022)

Unfortunately it seems that Ukraine war crisis could further escalate with potential to spread to neighbouring countries after Putin/Russia took offence to recent severe sanctions imposed against Russia - by threatening to use nuclear weapons against Ukraine/NATO alliance in retaliation. It was a clear threat 

Crypto Gold price rising as we speak as gained +$40 just this morning...


----------



## Garpal Gumnut (28 February 2022)

Telamelo said:


> Unfortunately it seems that Ukraine war crisis could further escalate with potential to spread to neighbouring countries after Putin/Russia took offence to recent severe sanctions imposed against Russia - by threatening to use nuclear weapons against Ukraine/NATO alliance in retaliation. It was a clear threat
> 
> Crypto Gold price rising as we speak as gained +$40 just this morning...



There will be some wild swings this morning on the markets. 

We will first to test Gold at $USD2000. 

Time to cycle down to my tobacconist for some Cohibas without my bicycle helmet.

gg


----------



## Telamelo (28 February 2022)

NATO/US alliance underestimate Putin as I knew he'd threaten nuclear warfare in retaliation when provoked... this could unfortunately get really ugly for the world  (let's see what eventuates from the peace talks tomorrow).


----------



## againsthegrain (28 February 2022)

Telamelo said:


> Unfortunately it seems that Ukraine war crisis could further escalate with potential to spread to neighbouring countries after Putin/Russia took offence to recent severe sanctions imposed against Russia - by threatening to use nuclear weapons against Ukraine/NATO alliance in retaliation. It was a clear threat
> 
> Crypto Gold price rising as we speak as gained +$40 just this morning...




His a mad man with what is now a personal vandetta and a ego under attack. This is very bad, I don't think he will stop unless he is personally stopped


----------



## Garpal Gumnut (28 February 2022)

againsthegrain said:


> His a mad man with what is now a personal vandetta and a ego under attack. This is very bad, I don't think he will stop unless he is personally stopped



That was the opinion of the Assassination Committee at the hotel last night. 

Once the Secretary awakes and writes up the minutes it will be forwarded to Sochi. 

gg


----------



## Dona Ferentes (28 February 2022)

Garpal Gumnut said:


> That was the opinion of the Assassination Committee at the hotel last night.
> 
> Once the Secretary awakes and writes up the minutes it will be forwarded to Sochi.



And the Disinformation Subcommittee; would be interested in what they are up to?


----------



## waterbottle (28 February 2022)

Who's exposed to Russia? Contagion?


----------



## noirua (28 February 2022)

Russian forces advance on Kyiv: fighting on fourth day of invasion
					

Russian forces advance, but assault on Kharkiv in east repelled by Ukrainian fighters




					www.theguardian.com


----------



## noirua (28 February 2022)

Russian RT TV appears banned in Europe and most other countries but still goes on and on regardless in the UK. I wont post a link just in case it's the wrong thing to do in Australia.


----------



## MovingAverage (28 February 2022)

It just keeps getting worse--Belarus has now renounced its non-nuclear status.


----------



## Dona Ferentes (28 February 2022)

noirua said:


> Russian RT TV appears banned in Europe and most other countries but still goes on and on regardless in the UK. I wont post a link just in case it's the wrong thing to do in Australia.



we don't expect much else from Londongrad


----------



## againsthegrain (28 February 2022)

scary thing is we thought he was bluffing on the whole Ukraine war and he wasn't so now you can't assume his bluffing on atomics


----------



## JohnDe (28 February 2022)

> Russia’s flagship carrier Aeroflot will suspend flights to Europe after the European Union closed its airspace to Russian aircraft for Moscow’s invasion of Ukraine.
> 
> The announcement came after the EU said Sunday it would close its airspace to Russian carriers, adding to a litany of sanctions imposed on Russia over its attack on Ukraine.
> 
> “Aeroflot is suspending flights of the European route network from February 28, 2022 until further notice,” the company said


----------



## CityIndex (28 February 2022)

MovingAverage said:


> It just keeps getting worse--Belarus has now renounced its non-nuclear status.




President Lukanhesko is claiming that they will only acquire nukes from Russia if the EU first moves nuclear weapons into Poland, although that could just be a cover to justify further military cooperation with Russia.

It'll be interesting to see how EU states react to this news now, and whether escalating tensions of a larger-scale conflict create a similar spike in market volatility as seen last week.


----------



## basilio (28 February 2022)

The impact of world sanctions on Russia  is becoming clearer. Rouble down 30%. Banks likely to fail. Much international trade stopping. 
I also saw that BP has sold out a 20% stake inan oil development with a Russian company.









						Moscow braces for rouble to crash at least 25% as new sanctions hit
					

Russian currency expected to plunge in first day’s trading since Swift ban and ECB says state-owned Sberbank subsidiaries are set to collapse




					www.theguardian.com


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## xris (28 February 2022)

JohnDe said:


> Your politics is visible through your omission (take note of post #339)
> 
> Bob Hawke lied about sending forces to Gulf War
> 
> ...




Thanks for the reminder:
I missed Hawke and the Gulf War.
I tried, but unable/not sure how to edit my post and include that.

as for definitions of Dictators, 
whether they get elected or not, doesn't really matter, if/when they do things contrary to the majority opinion and approval.


----------



## CityIndex (28 February 2022)

basilio said:


> The impact of world sanctions on Russia  is becoming clearer. Rouble down 30%. Banks likely to fail. Much international trade stopping.
> I also saw that BP has sold out a 20% stake inan oil development with a Russian company.
> 
> 
> ...



BP announced that they can continue to work with Russian state-owned Rosneft, but not yet clarified whether they are looking to sell their 20% stake, or write it off.

The latest annual report showed Rosneft accounted for about 1/5 of the BP's profit, which could have a significant impact on the company's share price. All trading carries risk, but it'll be worth watching how this plays out, especially when considering how many traders may have been using BP to hedge higher oil prices.


----------



## basilio (28 February 2022)

CityIndex said:


> BP announced that they can continue to work with Russian state-owned Rosneft, but not yet clarified whether they are looking to sell their 20% stake, or write it off.
> 
> The latest annual report showed Rosneft accounted for about 1/5 of the BP's profit, which could have a significant impact on the company's share price. All trading carries risk, but it'll be worth watching how this plays out, especially when considering how many traders may have been using BP to hedge higher oil prices.




Not sure about that.  From my reading it seems BP have decided to completely exit from Rosneft. The story seems to have been repeated across many media outlets. The City Index report also confirms the situation.

BP exiting stake in Russian oil and gas company Rosneft​BP says it's exiting its share in Rosneft, a state-owned Russian oil and gas company in reaction to Russia's invasion of Ukraine
By DEE-ANN DURBIN AP Business Writer
28 February 2022, 05:54
• 2 min read









The Associated Press
FILE - A view of the BP logo at a petrol station in London, Tuesday, Aug. 1, 2017. BP PLC...
BP said Sunday it is exiting its share in Rosneft, a state-controlled Russian oil and gas company, in reaction to Russia's invasion of Ukraine.

BP has held a 19.75% stake in Rosneft since 2013. That stake is currently valued at $14 billion.

London-based BP also said its CEO, Bernard Looney, and former BP executive Bob Dudley will immediately resign from Rosneft’s board.

“Like so many, I have been deeply shocked and saddened by the situation unfolding in Ukraine and my heart goes out to everyone affected. It has caused us to fundamentally rethink BP’s position with Rosneft,” Looney said in a statement.

BP Chairman Helge Lund said BP has operated in Russia for more than 30 years.

“However, this military action represents a fundamental change,” Lund said in a statement.

Kwasi Kwarteng, the U.K.'s secretary of state for business and energy, said he welcomed BP's decision.

“Russia’s unprovoked invasion of Ukraine must be a wake up call for British businesses with commercial interests in Putin’s Russia,” Kwarteng said in a tweet.

BP said it will take two non-cash charges in the first quarter to reflect the change, including an $11 billion charge for foreign exchange losses that have accumulated since 2013.









						BP exiting stake in Russian oil and gas company Rosneft
					

BP says it's exiting its share in Rosneft, a state-owned Russian oil and gas company in reaction to Russia's invasion of Ukraine




					abcnews.go.com
				





_Under growing pressure from the UK government, BP PLC announced over the weekend that its involvement with Russian State-Owned Rosneft "*simply can not continue". *The company has not clarified whether it is looking to sell its 20% stake in Rosneft or write it off in a move that could cost as much as $25 billion.









						BP to exit Russian State Owned Rosneft Stake
					






					www.cityindex.com.au
				



_


----------



## waterbottle (28 February 2022)

Wow

If ~80% of the IMOEX truly is owned by foreigners then they've just had a massive haircut....


----------



## waterbottle (28 February 2022)

Reinforcements now on the way...


----------



## JohnDe (28 February 2022)

xris said:


> Thanks for the reminder:
> I missed Hawke and the Gulf War.
> I tried, but unable/not sure how to edit my post and include that.
> 
> ...




Definitions do matter, otherwise what is the point of language?

As for opinions and approval, every Australian government has won the opportunity by having a majority of MPs elected, each MP wins their seat by having more votes than their opponent. 

The leader of a political party is elected by the members of the party, that leader then becomes Prime Minister if the party wins enough seats.



> The Westminster system is the basis of government in Australia, at the state, territory and federal level. It is based on the British model of responsible government.
> 
> Under this system public sector employees serve the people of their state, territory or country by implementing the Government's policies, decisions and programs. This includes:
> 
> ...


----------



## rederob (28 February 2022)

waterbottle said:


> Wow
> 
> If ~80% of the IMOEX truly is owned by foreigners then they've just had a massive haircut....



Russia's biggest problem is going to be money.
SWIFT sanctions are one thing, but Russia had amassed large foreign reserves and seemed to have overlooked the stark fact that most of these monies are held in overseas banks.  Without access to their reserve funds their economy is going to crash faster than Puting ever imagined.
As for Putin's nuclear deterrent threat, perhaps he is mad enough to nuke a country he wants to be part of Russia again, but that's more in the realm of batshyt crazy so he might just work out it's not that good an idea after all.


----------



## JohnDe (28 February 2022)

> *Ukraine agrees to talks with Russia as Vladimir Putin puts nukes on high alert*
> 
> Ukraine says it will hold talks with Russia at its border with Belarus —– near the Chernobyl exclusion zone – after a call between President Volodymyr Zelensky and Belarus leader Alexander Lukashenko.
> 
> ...


----------



## waterbottle (28 February 2022)

RE: nukes, I'm not familiar with various types but surely nuclear weapons sit on a spectrum from city/nation destroying variants to those able to affect local towns?
Putin threatening to use nuclear weapons does not necessarily mean he is going to use weapons that are designed to level ukraine. Would still be devastating...


----------



## Smurf1976 (28 February 2022)

basilio said:


> Not sure about that. From my reading it seems BP have decided to completely exit from Rosneft.



That seems to be the case but there's the question of exactly how they go about doing it. 

The destination has been set, how they're getting to it seems less certain beyond saying it'll be rather quickly. 

Where there could be surprises for investors is that realistically any Western company with operations in Russia is going to find it pretty much impossible to continue. The only question being whether it's a total write off of the investment or whether they can get some capital out but it's gone as such - if they don't then the company, regardless of who it is, is going to face some pretty massive pressure and is making themselves a target.


----------



## basilio (28 February 2022)

waterbottle said:


> RE: nukes, I'm not familiar with various types but surely nuclear weapons sit on a spectrum from city/nation destroying variants to those able to affect local towns?
> Putin threatening to use nuclear weapons does not necessarily mean he is going to use weapons that are designed to level ukraine. Would still be devastating...




Using tactical nuclear weapons would be the equivalent of just a little pregnant. Or a little dead.

The risk and consequences of using tactical nuclear weapons are beyond thinking.


----------



## Smurf1976 (28 February 2022)

againsthegrain said:


> scary thing is we thought he was bluffing on the whole Ukraine war and he wasn't so now you can't assume his bluffing on atomics



Agree in regards to Ukraine specifically but I think a lesson the West needs to learn is that the warning signs have long been there in my opinion that Russia was going to cause trouble at some point, the question being with the detail.

Just my opinion but that's how it always seemed to me, a country that probably would come back and cause trouble sometime down the track. I've said it many times in the context of oil and gas especially - if someone's got lots of it and isn't democratic then trouble is more than likely.

My reasoning is simple. A dictator in charge of a disproportionate share of anything critical, either natural resources or manufacturing, and with a substantial military has massive power. Once that setup exists, peace basically relies on them being a "nice guy" who's more interested in running an oil company or some factories than in ruling the world.


----------



## waterbottle (28 February 2022)

basilio said:


> Using tactical nuclear weapons would be the equivalent of just a little pregnant. Or a little dead.
> 
> The risk and consequences of using tactical nuclear weapons are beyond thinking.




Wouldn't they? I don't think the West would be willing to fight Russia if their nukes only a small area. Assad and Saddam (who were using chemical weapons on local populations) were easy targets as neither had capabilities that could reach the West.


----------



## Country Lad (28 February 2022)

Andrew Forrest pulls back on Russian investments, while BP will dump Rosneft stake and Norway divests​_Russian has been dealt a string of further financial blows, as global corporate giants from BP to big banks and Australia's Fortescue scramble to pull their investments out of the country. 
Australia's richest man Andrew Forrest told ABC News he had pulled back his renewable energy interests in Russia, and condemned Vladimir Putin's invasion of Ukraine._


----------



## waterbottle (28 February 2022)

I thought I would dive deeper into the Moscow Exchange (MOEX), given recent financial sanctions + a 40% drop in the value of the ruble.

Events are happening relatively quickly. The MOEX has now been delayed, only to open at 3pm Moscow time pending an announcement by the Central Bank of the Russian Federation (CBRF). They had already announce earlier that selling by foreign investors had already been banned.
During previous downturns, central banks have implemented the following strategies to 'maintain market order':

Plunge protection teams
Banning of short selling
Massive stimulus
Purchase of securities
I am no expert on the CBRF, and I'm not sure what tools they've implemented in the past. But given the Putin's comments RE: nationalisation of foreign assets, my bet would be that foreign share holders are going to end up with a $0 balance.

Of interest is the composition of MOEX shareholders. This information was taken from the MOEX website on 22nd Feb 2022, so I would assume there has been some shift up until Friday last week...



So, Russia had been enjoying an increase in the number of shareholders since 2017, up ~15x to 2021.

It had a market cap of $841.85 billion USD according to World Federation of Exchanges (as of Feb 2022). The West (USA, UK, France, Canada, Sweden) own 58.7%, or $494 billion USD.

The US alone has an interest of $309 billion USD - most likely held by institutional investors - and is no longer accessible.

I ask again, contagion?


----------



## Value Collector (28 February 2022)

MovingAverage said:


> It just keeps getting worse--Belarus has now renounced its non-nuclear status.



Maybe it’s time to buy some Boeing shares.


----------



## JohnDe (28 February 2022)

*Ukraine President Volodymyr Zelensky says next 24 hours 'crucial' for Ukraine


*

If Putin goes for broke, then the Ukraine people will have no choice but to also give everything they have, and then the worst of what wars brings will come to fruition - mass casualties. Let's hope that Russian politics come to their senses.


----------



## Garpal Gumnut (28 February 2022)

JohnDe said:


> *Ukraine President Volodymyr Zelensky says next 24 hours 'crucial' for Ukraine
> 
> View attachment 138322
> *
> ...



It is Putin's show. 

He treats his generals like he does everyone else. 

It reminds me of that movie " Death of Stalin ". 




gg


----------



## Dona Ferentes (28 February 2022)

Garpal Gumnut said:


> It is Putin's show. He treats his generals like he does everyone else.
> 
> It reminds me of that movie " Death of Stalin ".



totally paranoid about Covid (amongst everything else), I read somewhere.

(_evidently Xi or nice Imran didn't have the virus_)


----------



## MovingAverage (28 February 2022)

Garpal Gumnut said:


> It is Putin's show.
> 
> He treats his generals like he does everyone else.
> 
> ...



I wonder if the two buttons to the left are Putin are the ejector seats for his General's chairs.

On a serious note. There have been a few photos like this doing the rounds the last few days--I think it says a lot about Putin and his style.


----------



## waterbottle (28 February 2022)

RE: the economic fallout, here's an excerpt from ABN Amro's commentary on the Russia - Ukraine crisis, published before Russia was banned from SWIFT.....

"In this scenario, western governments impose a ban on Russia’s use of the SWIFT payments system, causing major disruptions to all Russian commodity exports (i.e. not just gas, but also oil, metals and food). Alternatively, Russia itself imposes an export ban against Europe/the US. Either scenario would probably result in a global bottlenecks crisis. This would lead to even bigger shortages and price surges. For the global economy, we would expect the effects on growth (downward) and inflation (upward) to be intensified, with the US likely to be much more affected, as jumps in gasoline prices and even higher inflation broadly would weigh heavily on consumer confidence. The need for increased shipping capacity as European oil imports are redirected from Russia to other regions would put additional pressure on already strained global shipping infrastructure. This would add to the many bottlenecks currently weighing on global industry, and intensify inflationary pressures more broadly."


Sounds like inflation and rate hikes are locked in....


----------



## basilio (28 February 2022)

waterbottle said:


> RE: the economic fallout, here's an excerpt from ABN Amro's commentary on the Russia - Ukraine crisis, published before Russia was banned from SWIFT.....
> 
> "In this scenario, western governments impose a ban on Russia’s use of the SWIFT payments system, causing major disruptions to all Russian commodity exports (i.e. not just gas, but also oil, metals and food). Alternatively, Russia itself imposes an export ban against Europe/the US. Either scenario would probably result in a global bottlenecks crisis. This would lead to even bigger shortages and price surges. For the global economy, we would expect the effects on growth (downward) and inflation (upward) to be intensified, with the US likely to be much more affected, as jumps in gasoline prices and even higher inflation broadly would weigh heavily on consumer confidence. The need for increased shipping capacity as European oil imports are redirected from Russia to other regions would put additional pressure on already strained global shipping infrastructure. This would add to the many bottlenecks currently weighing on global industry, and intensify inflationary pressures more broadly."
> 
> ...




Ominous.  Looks uncomfortably  accurate in the current circumstances.

I wonder if Western governments will recognize these threats and take more direct economic action to protect their economies ?

 A simple for instance. Petrol prices and gas prices jump sharply. Oil companies profits surge.  Governments decide to impose a temporary excess profits tax on oil companies and redistribute it to "hard working taxpayers" struggling to afford a tank of petrol to get to work.


----------



## waterbottle (28 February 2022)

basilio said:


> Ominous.  Looks uncomfortably  accurate in the current circumstances.
> 
> I wonder if Western governments will recognize these threats and take more direct economic action to protect their economies ?
> 
> A simple for instance. Petrol prices and gas prices jump sharply. Oil companies profits surge.  Governments decide to impose a temporary excess profits tax on oil companies and redistribute it to "hard working taxpayers" struggling to afford a tank of petrol to get to work.




I would think the cost of taxes will be passed onto the consumer, further contributing to inflation - as would the cost of all items directly/indirectly requiring oil for their production.


----------



## Telamelo (28 February 2022)

In times of war, propaganda kicks into action on both sides. So you have to read everything with a grain of salt. But you have to read both sides. That’s where you can hopefully come to a better understanding of the truth.

The narrative from the West is that Putin is trying to expand and re-establish the old Soviet empire. President Biden says Putin ‘_has much larger ambitions than Ukraine. He wants to, in fact, re-establish the former Soviet Union. That’s what this is about_.’

And from Paul Kelly in _The Weekend Australian_:



> ‘_Putin’s purpose is to reverse the market of history since the end of the Cold War. His blood and soil vision seeks to restore Russian grandeur, territory and influence. He repudiates the legitimacy of Ukraine as a nation state — a reversion to law of the jungle tactics._’



Now, let’s turn to the other side.

Below are selected comments from a televised speech Putin gave to the country last week. 

It’s clear that Putin believes it’s all about the eastward move of NATO, which has forced his hand to act:



> ‘_I will begin with what I said in my address on February 21, 2022. I spoke about our biggest concerns and worries, and about the fundamental threats which irresponsible Western politicians created for Russia consistently, rudely and unceremoniously from year to year. I am referring to the eastward expansion of NATO, which is moving its military infrastructure ever closer to the Russian border._
> ‘_This array includes promises not to expand NATO eastwards even by an inch. To reiterate: they have deceived us, or, to put it simply, they have played us._
> ‘_…in December 2021, we made yet another attempt to reach agreement with the United States and its allies on the principles of European security and NATO’s non-expansion. Our efforts were in vain. The United States has not changed its position. It does not believe it necessary to agree with Russia on a matter that is critical for us. The United States is pursuing its own objectives, while neglecting our interests._
> ‘_Even now, with NATO’s eastward expansion the situation for Russia has been becoming worse and more dangerous by the year. Moreover, these past days NATO leadership has been blunt in its statements that they need to accelerate and step up efforts to bring the alliance’s infrastructure closer to Russia’s borders. In other words, they have been toughening their position. We cannot stay idle and passively observe these developments. This would be an absolutely irresponsible thing to do for us._
> ...



Seen through this lens, you get a different sense of the motivation behind Putin’s actions. Whether you think they’re justified or not isn’t the point. This is how big powers
roll.

And it might just help you to connect some of the dots in this ongoing war between the major powers.


*Above excerpt from "The Insider"


----------



## Logique2 (28 February 2022)

Red, Bas and Humid,
just declare it honestly.
Are with dictator Vladimir, or with the free (and very brave) nation of Ukraine?


----------



## Boggo (28 February 2022)

Just to lighten the discussion up a bit


----------



## waterbottle (28 February 2022)

Central bank of Russia has hiked interest rates to 20%, up from 9.5%!!!!


----------



## Logique2 (28 February 2022)

On some estimates, it's costing Vladimir $20Bill USD -each day-  to continue 'peacekeeping' in Ukraine.

Such that the valorous Uktaine patriots only need to hold out for 10 days, to break Vladimir's 'peacekeeping' bank..


----------



## JohnDe (28 February 2022)

Telamelo said:


> In times of war, propaganda kicks into action on both sides. So you have to read everything with a grain of salt. But you have to read both sides. That’s where you can hopefully come to a better understanding of the truth.
> 
> The narrative from the West is that Putin is trying to expand and re-establish the old Soviet empire. President Biden says Putin ‘_has much larger ambitions than Ukraine. He wants to, in fact, re-establish the former Soviet Union. That’s what this is about_.’
> 
> ...




A lot of propaganda in that excerpt.

NATO nations have been spending less on their military every for the past 20+ years. That has been the US’s bugbear for years, they have had to carry a disproportionate load to protect European countries.
NATO is a defensive organisation, created  after WWII to deter and protect.

If Russia wasn’t a threatening nation we wouldn’t be in this situation. Countries like Poland have long memories, which is strengthened by Russian invading Georgia, Crimea, involvement in the downing of a passenger plane, and now the Ukraine invasion.

My Polish friend said to me today that Poland has always in the middle of countries wanting to expand their boarders. He doesn’t trust the Russian or German governments.

Maybe more propaganda.


> He has invaded countries. He has persecuted and locked up his rivals. For all his undoubted brutality he has if anything been predictable. He says what he is going to do and he does it.
> We know the mind of Vladimir Putin, he keeps no secrets from us. He is an arch Russian nationalist, he believes in empire. He is consumed with a sense of vengeance for what he sees as Western humiliation of Russia after the end of the Cold War and the collapse of the Soviet Union.











						Vladimir Putin has the world's largest nuclear arsenal. But will he use it?
					

Nuclear weapons were used against civilians when the US bombed Hiroshima in 1945. Could destruction on such an appalling scale happen again? Only Putin can answer that, writes Stan Grant.




					www.abc.net.au


----------



## Smurf1976 (28 February 2022)

One impact of all this will likely be on ammonia production and to the extent fertilizers become scarce and expensive, that ultimately feeds into food production and prices.

Not an industry I know much about in terms of the market but depending on which data you look at Russia is either the second or third largest producer globally with China being #1.

Plus various EU countries are also significant producers but to do that they're relying on Russian gas as the feedstock. Noting that natural gas is the main feedstock for production and not simply a means of powering it.

Ukraine itself is, or at least was, also significant in this industry.

Put all those together and it would seem at least plausible that a significant volume of production may be disrupted so that's another possible consequence of it all, the impact on the supply of fertilizers, explosives, diesel exhaust fluid and so on which are rather important to the functioning of agriculture, mining, transport etc.


----------



## JohnDe (28 February 2022)

Smurf1976 said:


> One impact of all this will likely be on ammonia production and to the extent fertilizers become scarce and expensive, that ultimately feeds into food production and prices.
> 
> Not an industry I know much about in terms of the market but depending on which data you look at Russia is either the second or third largest producer globally with China being #1.
> 
> ...




Well put. I wonder if our industry can take up the slack. At the moment Aussie SP’s for companies involved in that sector haven’t grown significantly but they didn’t crash either when other sectors did.





__





						Russia-Ukraine conflict could add pressure to Australia's 'skyrocketing' farm costs - ABC News
					






					amp.abc.net.au


----------



## Dona Ferentes (28 February 2022)

French Foreign Minister Jean-Yves Le Drian did respond. "Vladimir Putin must also understand that the Atlantic Alliance is a nuclear alliance," he told French TV.


----------



## noirua (28 February 2022)

Footage appears to show Ukrainian drone destroying Russian missile system
					

A Ukrainian official released footage on Sunday, appearing to show a drone taking out a Russian missile system.




					www.foxnews.com


----------



## basilio (28 February 2022)

*Zelenskiy doesn't know what can't be done*

Volodymyr Zelenskiy was a lawyer who moved into acting  and played the role of accidentally becoming the Ukrainian President in a TV Series. In the political turmoil of 2018 he stood for Presidency as a protest against the widespread corruption in Ukrainian politics.

In  Feb 2022 this "non politician" has moved political leaders and countries to undreamt of positions. His courage, commitment to his country and capacity to put a case has move political mountains. Check out this story on how he has moved politicians and countries to unheard of positions.









						The phone has become the Ukrainian president’s most effective weapon
					

Analysis: Zelenskiy has managed to achieve an unheard-of range of sanctions against Russia thanks to a tireless round of calls to allies




					www.theguardian.com
				



_
In a string of phone calls from a besieged Kyiv, Ukraine’s president, Volodymyr Zelenskiy, has persuaded the west to agree to a set of sanctions against Russia that were inconceivable a week ago.

Sensing how European public opinion is responding to the bravery of his people, Zelenskiy has been constantly on the phone to western leaders, using his Twitter feed to cajole, encourage, scold and praise his allies. In the process, sanctions regarded as unthinkable a week ago have become a moral baseline. The pace at which the west has been agreeing to the new sanctions has also left the lawyers, officials and bankers gasping for air, officials admit, as they work under severe pressure to turn headlines into reality.

*One leader’s office said: “We are in awe of him. He may not eventually be able to save Ukraine, or change Russia, but he is changing Europe*_*.”*


----------



## noirua (28 February 2022)

Maybe the only long term answer here is the assassination of President Vladimir Putin. After the collapse of a certain share I can only afford $1.95 as a reward - probably the value of Putin to humanity.


----------



## Telamelo (28 February 2022)

noirua said:


> Maybe the only long term answer here is the assassination of President Vladimir Putin. After the collapse of a certain share I can only afford $1.95 as a reward - probably the value of Putin to humanity.



“At the time of the end the King of the South (NATO/US Alliance) will engage him in battle, and the King of the North (Putin/Russia) will storm out against him with chariots & cavalry & a great fleet of ships. He will invade many countries and sweep through them like a flood".
--Daniel 11 versus 40-45

P.S. I expect that Gold will only go much much higher with terrible war escalating on all fronts imo


----------



## sptrawler (28 February 2022)

basilio said:


> *Zelenskiy doesn't know what can't be done*
> 
> Volodymyr Zelenskiy was a lawyer who moved into acting  and played the role of accidentally becoming the Ukrainian President in a TV Series. In the political turmoil of 2018 he stood for Presidency as a protest against the widespread corruption in Ukrainian politics.
> 
> ...



Sounds like a person that wanted to stop the rot, a bit like Trump Bas, he told Europe this could happen and everyone slagged him off. Funny how things work out.
Well one good thing when all this settles down, the globalisation crap will come to an end, sending manufacturing to the cheapest slave labour Country to maximise profits wont happen.
The benevolent people who have promoted it, will have to instead find a way of improving the third world, without destroying the first World. Sending everyone down to the lowest common denominator, while the gap between the rich and poor just gets bigger and bigger, had to end up in tears.
They call for a sustainable World, but don't care how, or who pays for it, as long as the rich get richer.


----------



## sptrawler (28 February 2022)

noirua said:


> Maybe the only long term answer here is the assassination of President Vladimir Putin. After the collapse of a certain share I can only afford $1.95 as a reward - probably the value of Putin to humanity.






rederob said:


> I outlined the idea earlier.
> Did you miss it?



O.K guys, $5 and I'll throw in the Rat test and go halves in your airfares.


----------



## Garpal Gumnut (28 February 2022)

I'm just reposting part of a post I just did on the Ruble thread. 

For those interested in following matters Ukranian on TV  I find the best method of following the events is to set your VPN to the UK and go to  https://wwitv.com/tv_channels/b5791.htm

Click on News TV English and it will give you a choice all the way from Sky News UK ( not our idiotic one here ) to Russia Today (RT). I have not been impressed with the Australian coverage of events nor that of the BBC.

gg


----------



## Garpal Gumnut (28 February 2022)

There are also many open source intel posters on Twitter with up to date info on Ukraine.

One of the better is https://twitter.com/Osinttechnical.

@bellingcat and others are also worth a look. 

Just duckduckgo it .

gg


----------



## noirua (28 February 2022)

Garpal Gumnut said:


> I'm just reposting part of a post I just did on the Ruble thread.
> 
> For those interested in following matters Ukranian on TV  I find the best method of following the events is to set your VPN to the UK and go to  https://wwitv.com/tv_channels/b5791.htm
> 
> ...



Russia TV RT seems to have its main interest in Eastern Ukraine - Donetsk - https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Donetsk & Kharkiv Oblast https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Kharkiv_Oblast & Luhansk Oblast  https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Luhansk_Oblast

The main problem with this is it is war and each side has the need for propaganda to favour them. 

I favour the TV programme Aljazeera that reports information with much fewer opinions. RT TV favours Russia in its choice of views. BBC favours Ukraine in its choice of views,

Aljazeera TV:  https://www.aljazeera.com/live/


----------



## sptrawler (28 February 2022)

Garpal Gumnut said:


> I'm just reposting part of a post I just did on the Ruble thread.
> 
> For those interested in following matters Ukranian on TV  I find the best method of following the events is to set your VPN to the UK and go to  https://wwitv.com/tv_channels/b5791.htm
> 
> ...



Thanks for the heads up GG, one question, how do you set you VPN? Or better still what is your VPN.


----------



## Garpal Gumnut (1 March 2022)

sptrawler said:


> Thanks for the heads up GG, one question, how do you set you VPN? Or better still what is your VPN.



Nord VPN.

gg


----------



## waterbottle (1 March 2022)




----------



## MovingAverage (1 March 2022)

It's really not going well for Vlad.


----------



## JohnDe (1 March 2022)

MovingAverage said:


> It's really not going well for Vlad.
> 
> View attachment 138357




Be wary. So far Russia hasn’t sent in their elite regiments, why is that?


----------



## waterbottle (1 March 2022)

JohnDe said:


> Be wary. So far Russia hasn’t sent in their elite regiments, why is that?




Agreed.

Many social media posts are making fun of Russia's poor military performance to date but failing to acknowledge that unlike the US wars against Afghanistan and Iraq, Russia is not trying to level a country. 
Their goal is to remove the government.

I think we'd be underestimating them if we assume this is all they had...


----------



## MovingAverage (1 March 2022)

JohnDe said:


> Be wary. So far Russia hasn’t sent in their elite regiments, why is that?



I'm certainly no military strategist, but I am surprised at Putin sending in what appears to be a rabble of cut lunch commandos. I thought Russia would be slightly more organized for this. But lately I've been wondering whether Vlad has intentionally led with his rabble of cut lunch commandos as a deliberate strategy to wear down the Ukrainian forces to then only send in his elite regiments to finish the job against a weakened Ukrainian force.


----------



## MovingAverage (1 March 2022)

MovingAverage said:


> I'm certainly no military strategist, but I am surprised at Putin sending in what appears to be a rabble of cut lunch commandos. I thought Russia would be slightly more organized for this. But lately I've been wondering whether Vlad has intentionally led with his rabble of cut lunch commandos as a deliberate strategy to wear down the Ukrainian forces to then only send in his elite regiments to finish the job against a weakened Ukrainian force.




But then again Vlad has pulled out the nuke card very early, which to me suggests maybe what we are seeing from his military is all he has--a rabble of cut lunch commandos and nothing else. Why come out of the gate early and reach for the last resort of nukes if he had serious elite troops to come?


----------



## JohnDe (1 March 2022)

MovingAverage said:


> But then again Vlad has pulled out the nuke card very early, which to me suggests maybe what we are seeing from his military is all he has--a rabble of cut lunch commandos and nothing else. Why come out of the gate early and reach for the last resort of nukes if he had serious elite troops to come?




Or his Generals are mocking him.


----------



## MovingAverage (1 March 2022)

JohnDe said:


> Or his Generals are mocking him.



I suspect his Generals value their lives so doubt they are mocking Vlad. Maybe his Generals are just incompetent


----------



## basilio (1 March 2022)

My understanding was the original plan was to drop 5000 elite paratroopers into Kyiv who were supposed to take the main Government buildings and in particular the  President.  Swift, clean and hopefully over in a day or so. Not messy at all. One of the assumptions was that Ukrainian soldiers would give up quickly against the perceived  overwhelming odds

The paratroopers were repelled and the Russians  have been using some pretty ordinary foot soldiers  to take back the initiative. That hasn't been flash at all.


----------



## martaart077 (1 March 2022)

MovingAverage said:


> I suspect his Generals value their lives so doubt they are mocking Vlad. Maybe his Generals are just incompetent



Some generals and military advisors will have their heads on the chopping block for the poor performance so far. 
To date, their actions have been an embarrassment for Russia.


----------



## MovingAverage (1 March 2022)

martaart077 said:


> Some generals and military advisors will have their heads on the chopping block for the poor performance so far.
> To date, their actions have been an embarrassment for Russia.



I can't even begin to imagine what Putin has planned for some of his military's top brass.


----------



## MovingAverage (1 March 2022)

basilio said:


> My understanding was the original plan was to drop 5000 elite paratroopers into Kyiv who were supposed to take the main Government buildings and in particular the  President.  Swift, clean and hopefully over in a day or so. Not messy at all. One of the assumptions was that Ukrainian soldiers would give up quickly against the perceived  overwhelming odds
> 
> The paratroopers were repelled and the Russians  have been using some pretty ordinary foot soldiers  to take back the initiative. That hasn't been flash at all.



makes sense given he's resorting to nukes


----------



## againsthegrain (1 March 2022)

he did lose some elite commando troops + the leader when the Ukrainians took back a airport but it was only around 100-200 so not a whole army of commandos.  Also the Chechen battalion, who were supposed to be hard guys got minced along with the commander. 

Putin was hoping for Ukraine to give up in the face of large but novice army.  Same mistakes exactly the same mistakes as Grozy...  almost too stupid to make the same mistakes like you guys say he has a ace up his sleeve or his mind is fried


----------



## MovingAverage (1 March 2022)

againsthegrain said:


> he has a ace up his sleeve or his mind is fried



or more worrying--both


----------



## JohnDe (1 March 2022)

> *‘Last safe day in Kyiv’ as Russian forces close in, with an approaching military convoy three times the size as first thought.*
> 
> Satellite imagery company Maxar Technology has clarified a report of a Russian military convoy approaching Kyiv, saying it is up to 40 miles (64km) long. Maxar had estimated it was 17 miles in length.
> 
> It added that new images also show ground troops and military helicopters in southern Belarus, about 30km from the border with Ukraine.


----------



## JohnDe (1 March 2022)

Putin and Russia are not going to back down, and it looks like they are sending in everything to crush the Ukraine resistance. 



> *Expect further market volatility including stronger Australian dollar and possible European recession*
> 
> The western world has not experienced a Ukraine style war since 1945. Selected markets have now responded dramatically and there are more swings to come including a likely further strengthening of the Australian dollar.
> 
> ...


----------



## Garpal Gumnut (1 March 2022)

JohnDe said:


> Putin and Russia are not going to back down, and it looks like they are sending in everything to crush the Ukraine resistance.



Depending on how it pans out long term, the assaults over the last 2 days on Kharkiv and Kyiv are the stuff of War Crime Tribunals. 

Cluster bombs on civilians is horror.

Europe has always been the seat of great culture, and immense genocide and cruelty.

The victors write the history. Hopefully Ukraine and NATO win.

gg


----------



## martaart077 (1 March 2022)

MovingAverage said:


> I can't even begin to imagine what Putin has planned for some of his military's top brass.



If military top brass come to the conclusion that their lives may be in danger, they may move against Putin and do the Ukraine's and the world a favour


----------



## gartley (1 March 2022)

Telamelo said:


> And it might just help you to connect some of the dots in this ongoing war between the major powers.
> 
> 
> *Above excerpt from "The Insider"



Well said Telamelo.

Unfortunately these days you really have to do your own research to get a more realistic perpective of what is happening.  Western MSM mouthpieces only pushing governemnt narratives instead of reporting the real news in some cases, especially the  last few years...


----------



## basilio (1 March 2022)

Worth realising the economic pressure Russia is under as the Ukraine invasion goes sour and outrages *everyone *else.

Russia's central bank has closed the country's stock market and instructed brokers to block foreign sales as losses mount​ 


Matthew Fox

15 hours ago



                                                                             Traders work on the floor of the New York Stock Exchange (NYSE)                                                                                                                                        Spencer Platt/Getty Images                                 

*Russia's central bank closed its stock market on Monday in a bid to stem a sharp decline.*
*The central bank also instructed brokers to not execute sell orders from foreign investors.*
*Russia's ruble plunged more than 20% on Monday after devastating sanctions from Western countries.*









						Russia's central bank has closed the country's stock market and instructed brokers to block foreign sales as losses mount
					

In an attempt to prevent a total collapse of the Russian ruble, the central bank also more than doubled interest rates to 20% following sanctions.




					markets.businessinsider.com


----------



## basilio (1 March 2022)

This story offers an insight into the effect of the war and international sanctions on the Russian people.









						‘The damage is done’: Russians face economic point of no return
					

Shoppers and business people express despair and disillusion as sanctions cause run on rouble




					www.theguardian.com


----------



## JohnDe (1 March 2022)

> *We all buy into Zelensky’s brand Ukraine*
> 
> You’ll have seen President Zelensky, out on the street in Kyiv, making it clear he’s going nowhere. “I need ammunition not a ride,” he said, and I doubt any of us will forget that. Those farm tractors, pulling away captured Russian hardware. “February harvest,” joked the Ukrainian army’s Twitter feed. That video, just yesterday (Monday), of the guy in jeans who calmly picked up an anti-tank mine and carried it off into the bushes, while smoking a cigarette.


----------



## waterbottle (1 March 2022)

Agreed with comments by @Telamelo. Lots of propaganda from both sides, with the majority of news really only coming from the Ukrainian front.

The Russian perspective is unsurprisingly different. The Western media is focused on Kiev, with daily updates reporting that the city remains standing. Russian updates are focused on the overall strategy - with the current plan being to form a land bridge between Crimea & the Donbass regions. 
A Russian YouTuber claims that this is where the majority of Ukrainian forces (blue circles) are positioned. Their defeat (if it were to eventuate) by an ever growing Russian presence (red line) will surely change sentiment in Kiev and the outcome of the war.




It's also worth noting that I've yet to find objective data RE: troop buildup from either side. Based on "satellite imaging" alone, it seems that the Russians are continuing to flood Ukraine with more personnel, whereas Ukraine is now reliant on foreign volunteers!
In addition, China has now started to evacuate its citizens from Ukraine. Either they're slow, or they know something the rest of the world doesn't. Meanwhile the US remains cautious and is expecting the worst is yet to come.

As I've said before, the rhetoric regarding Putin is premature...


----------



## waterbottle (1 March 2022)

Putin now taking it up a notch, targeting administrative buildings


----------



## Telamelo (1 March 2022)

*Russia’s terrifying arsenal of nuclear weapons revealed
*








						Missile strike hits major Ukrainian city
					

Huge explosions have lit up the night sky in Kyiv as Russian air strikes hit the Ukrainian capital, while missiles rain down on the second-largest city Kharkiv 400km to the east.




					www.news.com.au


----------



## Value Collector (2 March 2022)

waterbottle said:


> Agreed.
> 
> Many social media posts are making fun of Russia's poor military performance to date but failing to acknowledge that unlike the US wars against Afghanistan and Iraq, Russia is not trying to level a country.
> Their goal is to remove the government.
> ...



What do you mean unlike Afghanistan and Iraq, removing the government was exactly USA’s intent in both Afghanistan and Iraq.


----------



## Value Collector (2 March 2022)

MovingAverage said:


> I suspect his Generals value their lives so doubt they are mocking Vlad. Maybe his Generals are just incompetent



Maybe a lot of Russian soldiers just don’t have their heart in it, and don’t believe in the mission to begin with.


----------



## divs4ever (2 March 2022)

IEA Will Deploy Emergency Oil Stockpiles to Ease Soaring Prices

https://www.investing.com/news/comm...oil-stockpiles-to-ease-soaring-prices-2775207

currently
Crude Oil WTI 104.28 +8.56 +8.94%
Brent Oil 105.75 +7.78 +7.94%

  i wonder if this will be known as the self-inflicted oil crisis 

 it took years and a lot of work to create a mess this big


----------



## waterbottle (2 March 2022)

Lukashenko demonstrating potential moves in Moldovia?


----------



## waterbottle (2 March 2022)

Looks like high oil prices looked in for the foreseable future, even if this war were to end tomorrow


----------



## Value Collector (2 March 2022)

When I listen to this song now I think about the Brave Ukrainian people, I feel almost every lyrics represents how they must be feeling.


----------



## basilio (2 March 2022)

*"He has no idea what's coming"*

President Biden State of the Union address on what Putin will be facing.

Resounding, hastily rewritten speech which certainly got people off their seats. It looks like everyone in the West is trying to outdo each other in sanctioning Putin and his supporters.

Even got a bi -partisan round of applause during parts of his speech. 

As for the tired old tropes of dementia ? Check out the article and see whether he can tell a story with clarity and purpose. 









						'He has no idea what's coming': Biden's off-script warning and other big moments from his State of the Union speech
					

Since he took office, Joe Biden has faced new COVID-19 variants, a struggling US economy and a war in Ukraine. These were the biggest moments from his State of the Union address as he laid out his plans for the year ahead.




					www.abc.net.au


----------



## moXJO (2 March 2022)

basilio said:


> *"He has no idea what's coming"*
> 
> President Biden State of the Union address on what Putin will be facing.
> 
> ...



Satire goes in general chat.


----------



## basilio (2 March 2022)

moXJO said:


> Satire goes in general chat.



Ha Ha.  Is it too hard for you to stomach President Biden being presidential and giving a strong speech to the House ?

I'm sure the usual suspects in the peanut galley will be  running their lying tropes on Bidens "dementia".  However seeing him present  makes that tripe look like wilful lies.


----------



## sptrawler (2 March 2022)

basilio said:


> Ha Ha.  Is it too hard for you to stomach President Biden being presidential and giving a strong speech to the House ?
> 
> I'm sure the usual suspects in the peanut galley will be  running their lying tropes on Bidens "dementia".  However seeing him present  makes that tripe look like wilful lies.



I hope you're right Bass, but please save us from the accusations of peanut galleries, regarding Biden, after the 4 years and millions of peanut posts regarding Trump.
I mean really no mirrors? or what.


----------



## noirua (2 March 2022)

Chechen hit squad sent to murder Zelenskyy 'eliminated,' top Ukrainian defense official says
					

A team of Chechen commandos were sent into Ukraine to hunt down and kill President Zelenskyy. The elite team was allegedly "eliminated" by security forces.




					www.foxnews.com


----------



## moXJO (2 March 2022)

basilio said:


> Ha Ha.  Is it too hard for you to stomach President Biden being presidential and giving a strong speech to the House ?
> 
> I'm sure the usual suspects in the peanut galley will be  running their lying tropes on Bidens "dementia".  However seeing him present  makes that tripe look like wilful lies.



I'm sure Iranians were thankful for it.


----------



## Smurf1976 (2 March 2022)

Value Collector said:


> When I listen to this song now I think about the Brave Ukrainian people, I feel almost every lyrics represents how they must be feeling.



What was the song? The video has been removed....

If I was to pick a song to sum the whole situation up though it would be "Civil War" (Guns N' Roses).

The lyrics hit the nail on the head about the whole concept of war and it's sadly just as relevant now as it was back in 1991 when it was recorded.


----------



## noirua (2 March 2022)

Who is Volodymyr Zelenskyy's wife, Olena Zelenska, Ukraine's first lady?
					

Olena Zelenska was originally a writer for a comedy troupe that led to Volodymyr Zelenskyy’s rise to fame in “Servant of the People.”




					www.foxnews.com
				



"I will not have panic and tears," she wrote on Instagram. "I will be calm and confident. My children are looking at me. I will be next to them. And next to my husband. And with you."


----------



## Value Collector (2 March 2022)

Smurf1976 said:


> What was the song? The video has been removed....
> 
> If I was to pick a song to sum the whole situation up though it would be "Civil War" (Guns N' Roses).
> 
> The lyrics hit the nail on the head about the whole concept of war and it's sadly just as relevant now as it was back in 1991 when it was recorded.


----------



## basilio (2 March 2022)

sptrawler said:


> I hope you're right Bass, but please save us from the accusations of peanut galleries, regarding Biden, after the 4 years and millions of peanut posts regarding Trump.



Donald Trump is lying,  criminal , traitorous piece of merde who has  systematically undermined respect for democracy across the US and around the world.  I said as much in the first posts I made about Trump and 5 years experience has just verified my comments.


----------



## noirua (2 March 2022)

I suppose reality for us to imagine in this Ukraine battle is going to our children's bedrooms or that of relatives and finding parts of their bodies blown off and their heads caved in. Your house smashed to bits, putting what belonging we have in a car and heading off hopefully for another abode.


----------



## moXJO (2 March 2022)

basilio said:


> Donald Trump is lying,  criminal , traitorous piece of merde who has  systematically undermined respect for democracy across the US and around the world.  I said as much in the first posts I made about Trump and 5 years experience has just verified my comments.



Yes we all know you cray cray for Trump. Lets keep it in general.


----------



## Dona Ferentes (3 March 2022)

Media people have taught us as they broadcast from the besieged *capital of Ukraine*, after the “k” it’s nothing but a long “e” before you reach the “v”.

At least that’s how they’ll tell you to pronounce it in Ukraine. Because in Vladimir Putin’s homeland, they call it “Kiev”, a transliteration from the Russian. So if you’re pro-Russia, it’s Kiev; if you’re backing Ukraine, it’s Kyiv.


----------



## xris (3 March 2022)

noirua said:


> I suppose reality for us to imagine in this Ukraine battle is going to our children's bedrooms or that of relatives and finding parts of their bodies blown off and their heads caved in. Your house smashed to bits, putting what belonging we have in a car and heading off hopefully for another abode.



This happens in every armed conflict/war: 
and comes under the heading of 'Collateral Damage/Friendly Fire'

Something that is best depicted in the game of "Chess"
Everything/piece is expendable, to protect the King
the first to go/be sacrificed are ALWAYS the pawns (soldiers)
then it's a toss up between the Bishops and Knights
then the Rooks/Castles and the Queen:
Though some strategists would sacrifice a Rook/Castle or a Queen to get to/checkmate the King earlier.

I'm no historian but have lived long enough to conclude that the greatest casualties and price in such conflicts is often extracted from the non-aggressive, non-military populace: which says a lot about peoples attitude and interpretation of "thou shalt not kill"


----------



## noirua (3 March 2022)

xris said:


> This happens in every armed conflict/war:
> and comes under the heading of 'Collateral Damage/Friendly Fire'
> 
> Something that is best depicted in the game of "Chess"
> ...



A game of chess may not be the right way to describe a war.  Those I met who played chess a lot seemed to spend hours locked away in their own world for hours and dare anyone interrupt them and bring on world war III if their board is tipped over. A big difference between the real and a fabricable war.


----------



## noirua (3 March 2022)

Russian TV RT has today been halted in the UK.  It states onscreen that transmission is suspended.


----------



## xris (4 March 2022)

JohnDe said:


> Definitions do matter, otherwise what is the point of language?
> 
> As for opinions and approval, every Australian government has won the opportunity by having a majority of MPs elected, each MP wins their seat by having more votes than their opponent.
> 
> The leader of a political party is elected by the members of the party, that leader then becomes Prime Minister if the party wins enough seats.



Thanks for the History lesson on Australian Democracy:
My recollection is that an UNELECTED  Figurehead was able to Sack/Dismiss a (TWICE) democratically elected PM/Govt (Whitlam).
Such is the "English Version" of democracy we have in this country.
But certainly not my understanding of the definition of Democracy in any language.
Hence my conclusion of an "Elected Dictator" (all those PM's that have involved us/Aust in someone else's war).

Think about it (if you can) from the indigenous point of view:
The English came, invaded, killed/raped/enslaved, occupied, annexed, desecrated and rule: THEIR country and Their Future!!!
and there's absolutely nothing they (the indigenous inhabitants/owners) can do about it, militarily or politically because, they have been reduced to a very small minority.

Another example: remember David Hicks?
Though not your model law abiding church going citizen: was an Australian Citizen who was detained, abused, tortured etc in Guantanamo Bay by the Democratic USA, for 5 yrs without any formal charges for 3yrs. On SUSPICION!!
So much for that Democratic Tenet of INNOCENT until PROVEN GUILTY.

Meanwhile other well know criminals both in USA and Australia were left roaming the streets, free to continue committing their crimes ;
Theft, Extortion, Drug Trafficking and  Murder. (Moran, Pettingill, Williams, Gatto, Gangitano):
Not exactly a democratic or popular decision.


----------



## xris (4 March 2022)

xris said:


> Thanks for the History lesson on Australian Democracy:
> My recollection is that an UNELECTED  Figurehead was able to Sack/Dismiss a (TWICE) democratically elected PM/Govt (Whitlam).
> Such is the "English Version" of democracy we have in this country.
> But certainly not my understanding of the definition of Democracy in any language.
> ...


----------



## xris (4 March 2022)

JohnDe said:


> If Putin goes for broke, then the Ukraine people will have no choice but to also give everything they have, and then the worst of what wars brings will come to fruition - mass casualties. Let's hope that Russian politics come to their senses.



War is like Chess,
Everything is expendable.
to those who start the wars.


----------



## xris (4 March 2022)

basilio said:


> A simple for instance. Petrol prices and gas prices jump sharply. Oil companies profits surge.  Governments decide to impose a temporary excess profits tax on oil companies and redistribute it to "hard working taxpayers" struggling to afford a tank of petrol to get to work.



And that's the beauty of the capitalist system.
Adaptability, Flexibility and the freedom to Capitalise (charge whatever you/they want) in the circumstances.

3 days ago Petrol in my area was ~$1.75/l 
today it was $2.02/l
for the same Petrol that was and still is in their underground storage tanks.

Collateral winners of this conflict.


----------



## xris (4 March 2022)

JohnDe said:


> If Russia wasn’t a threatening nation we wouldn’t be in this situation. Countries like Poland have long memories, which is strengthened by Russian invading Georgia, Crimea, involvement in the downing of a passenger plane, and now the Ukraine invasion.



Yeah!! I've seen what peace loving  Britain, Australia and USA  have done and achieved since WW1


----------



## xris (4 March 2022)

noirua said:


> Maybe the only long term answer here is the assassination of President Vladimir Putin. After the collapse of a certain share I can only afford $1.95 as a reward - probably the value of Putin to humanity.



He'll just be replaced by another with similar ideas


----------



## xris (4 March 2022)

Dona Ferentes said:


> French Foreign Minister Jean-Yves Le Drian did respond. "Vladimir Putin must also understand that the Atlantic Alliance is a nuclear alliance," he told French TV.



Wonderfull.............

Nobody wins a nuclear war.

Unlike ~80 Yrs ago when USA was the only country with nuclear weapons,.

I may not be exaggerating when I say that today mankind has developed enough nuclear weapons to completely obliterate this planet.


----------



## xris (4 March 2022)

martaart077 said:


> If military top brass come to the conclusion that their lives may be in danger, they may move against Putin and do the Ukraine's and the world a favour



There's a rumour that something similar happened to JFK.


----------



## noirua (4 March 2022)

Loud explosion heard in Washington, D.C., near Russian Embassy: report
					

Police responded to an alleged explosion heard just before 1 a.m. Thursday in Glover Park, Washington, D.C., near where the Russian Embassy is located.




					www.foxnews.com


----------



## xris (4 March 2022)

Value Collector said:


> Maybe a lot of Russian soldiers just don’t have their heart in it, and don’t believe in the mission to begin with.



Interesting:
I've heard similar stories about the Italian Army and Mussolini's  Invasion of Greece during WW11


----------



## Value Collector (4 March 2022)

xris said:


> Interesting:
> I've heard similar stories about the Italian Army and Mussolini's  Invasion of Greece during WW11



Is a group of 19 year old Russian conscripts that don’t really want to be there and just want to get paid going to fight as hard as a group of people fighting to defend their families? Probably not.

If you don’t believe in the mission, you are going to be more risk averse and think way the hell am I here anyway, but the Ukrainian Men and Women know exactly what they are fighting for.


----------



## xris (4 March 2022)

Value Collector said:


> Is a group of 19 year old Russian conscripts that don’t really want to be there and just want to get paid going to fight as hard as a group of people fighting to defend their families? Probably not.
> 
> If you don’t believe in the mission, you are going to be more risk averse and think way the hell am I here anyway,* but the Ukrainian Men and Women know exactly what they are fighting for.*



Yes!!
Soldiers are taught/drilled to OBEY orders, not to evaluate or judge them.

It took USA many many years and many unnecessary deaths to learn a similar lesson in Vietnam and later in Afghanistan


----------



## noirua (4 March 2022)

French President Macron believes 'the worst is to come' after call with Putin today


			https://twitter.com/i/events/1483255084750282753


----------



## JohnDe (4 March 2022)

xris said:


> Yeah!! I've seen what peace loving  Britain, Australia and USA  have done and achieved since WW1




Is that the best that you can add to the conversation?


----------



## againsthegrain (4 March 2022)

Value Collector said:


> Is a group of 19 year old Russian conscripts that don’t really want to be there and just want to get paid going to fight as hard as a group of people fighting to defend their families? Probably not.
> 
> If you don’t believe in the mission, you are going to be more risk averse and think way the hell am I here anyway, but the Ukrainian Men and Women know exactly what they are fighting for.




This was exactly the same back in the Chechen war, I don't think it is by chance they are repeating the same mistakes.  Russian leaders just don't give a fk









						Battle of Grozny (1994–1995) - Wikipedia
					






					en.m.wikipedia.org
				




Things are playing out the same so far


----------



## noirua (4 March 2022)

Canada’s main stock index lost ground on Thursday, though mining stocks tracked higher metal prices amid Russian supply concerns, while rapid moves in the energy and bond markets slowed as investors monitored the war in Ukraine. 
The geopolitical conflict in Ukraine heightened as Russia laid siege to key Ukrainian city of Mariupol, cutting it off from the world. As the invasion continues for a second week, the Russian authority has stepped up its shelling of Kharkiv, Ukraine’s second-largest city. 
The London Stock Exchange said it had suspended trading in shares of 27 companies with links to Russia, including some of the biggest names in energy and steel. 
Crude oil prices also maintained their skyward journey.


----------



## noirua (4 March 2022)

Fire breaks out at Zaporizhzhya nuclear power plant​A *fire has broken out in Europe’s largest nuclear power plant *located in *Zaporizhzhya*, according to an announcement from plant employees and the mayor of the nearby town of Enerhodar.
“As a result of continuous enemy shelling of buildings and units of the largest nuclear power plant in Europe, the Zaporizhzhia nuclear power plant is on fire,” Enerhodar Mayor Dmytro Orlov said on his Telegram channel just after 1.30am local time, citing what he called a threat to world security.








						Putin likens Western sanctions to war as Russian assault traps Ukrainian civilians
					

Russian President Vladimir Putin said Western sanctions were akin to war as his forces pressed their assault on Ukraine on Saturday for a 10th day and the IMF warned the conflict would have a "severe impact" on the global economy.




					www.reuters.com


----------



## Knobby22 (4 March 2022)

noirua said:


> Fire breaks out at Zaporizhzhya nuclear power plant​A *fire has broken out in Europe’s largest nuclear power plant *located in *Zaporizhzhya*, according to an announcement from plant employees and the mayor of the nearby town of Enerhodar.
> “As a result of continuous enemy shelling of buildings and units of the largest nuclear power plant in Europe, the Zaporizhzhia nuclear power plant is on fire,” Enerhodar Mayor Dmytro Orlov said on his Telegram channel just after 1.30am local time, citing what he called a threat to world security.



That will crash Euro stock markets. Truly the Russians are incompetant.


----------



## noirua (4 March 2022)

Pressure grows on Biden to ban U.S. imports of Russian oil
					

A bipartisan group of U.S. senators introduced a bill on Thursday to ban U.S. imports of Russian oil, saying the shipments could be replaced by boosting output in North America and other places.




					www.reuters.com


----------



## JohnDe (4 March 2022)

Knobby22 said:


> That will crash Euro stock markets. Truly the Russians are incompetant.




I'm not sure that 'incompetent' is the right word, maybe *insane* is a better reference.

Russian Troops Shell Europe's Largest Nuclear Power Station in Ukraine


----------



## basilio (4 March 2022)

Putin seems determined to  take all of Ukraine by force  if necessary. To do that he will use whatever military muscle is required. To date that involves sustained shelling of cities and infrastructure.

IMV the economic fallout of this sustained attack will rise sharply. The question of nuclear power stations under attack can only make matters worse. 

Russia is being kicked out of most international economic activity (except for critical imports/exports). Even that is probably on the cusp of collapse. Ukraine as a important  international grain growing country as well as its other  resources is now questionable if a war of destruction continues. I think the economic red lights are flashing. Stock markets could very easily go risk averse.


----------



## over9k (4 March 2022)

Knobby22 said:


> That will crash Euro stock markets. Truly the Russians are incompetant.



No, they're just mad:


----------



## MovingAverage (4 March 2022)

Seems like if Putin can't have the place he's going to make sure no one else does.


----------



## CityIndex (4 March 2022)

It will be integral to prevent this situation from getting out of control as the damage would be far greater than anything that occurred at Chernobyl. The good new is that US and Ukrainian reports suggest that radiation is within normal limits for now. 

The news sparked another round of risk-off flows, with Asian equities on track to end the week lower. All trading carries risk, but it will be interesting to see how this plays out in the European and US markets later today. Will this prompt speculation of a larger-scale conflict, pushing gold and other safe-havens higher?


----------



## over9k (4 March 2022)

The International Atomic Energy Agency is on full alert/defcon 1 but there's been no radiation spike reported yet.


----------



## basilio (4 March 2022)

Knobby22 said:


> *That will crash Euro stock markets.* Truly the Russians are incompetant.




Maybe, maybe that is their intention ?  If our stock market is cactus lets see what happens when yours goes south.

It could also be a very deadly game of bluff.  We will destroy  Ukraine  piece by piece  if doesn't roll over.


----------



## over9k (4 March 2022)

basilio said:


> Maybe, maybe that is their intention ?  If our stock market is cactus lets see what happens when yours goes south.



Maybe, but: "Do not ascribe to malice what can be explained with simple incompetence"  

Cutting some of the gas and/or oil off would be a much easier/less dangerous/less permanent way to twist the knife.


----------



## basilio (4 March 2022)

over9k said:


> Maybe, but: "Do not ascribe to malice what can be explained with simple incompetence"
> 
> Cutting some of the gas and/or oil off would be a much easier/less dangerous/less permanent way to twist the knife.




Who knows ?  We do know the Russians are attacking infrastructure and cities on a wide front.  Control of exactly what is attacked and hit will reside with local commanders and literally , individual tank commanders.  It is a rolling disaster.


----------



## Knobby22 (4 March 2022)

basilio said:


> Maybe, maybe that is their intention ?  If our stock market is cactus lets see what happens when yours goes south.
> 
> It could also be a very deadly game of bluff.  We will destroy  Ukraine  piece by piece  if doesn't roll over.



They will destroy Ukraine piece by piece but causing an incident at the nuclear power station in a battle from a few stray shots is just a stuff up.

Everything is not a conspiracy, especially a half assed incident like this. Completely with over9K comments.

War is messy. Russian tanks running out of petrol, poor communications, kids being sent out wet behind the ears. Tell me this is not incompetence.

If they wanted to make an incident they would just make one. Don't forget they want the country so they want power, even if they destroy the cities completely and run the farms using Russian labour.

The plan was always to pay for the war by selling the wheat to China.


----------



## Smurf1976 (4 March 2022)

MovingAverage said:


> Seems like if Putin can't have the place he's going to make sure no one else does.
> 
> View attachment 138557



Looking on Google Earth, this area looks to be fairly strategic in terms of industry etc.

There's the nuclear power plant but 3km away is another substantial power station, coal-fired, which was clearly operational at the time of the image capture and presumably still was until the invasion.

Right next to the coal plant is another power station which looks to be oil-fired and which may also plausibly burn gas (that bit's speculation on my part - there's what looks to be an added pipe visible but it may not actually be a gas pipe). This facility is visibly old from the outside - it may or may not still be in use.

About 50km away there's what looks to be a large integrated steelworks.

Not far from the steelworks is a dam and hydro power station. The dam also functions as a bridge, there's a road carrying traffic built across the top of the dam and a pedestrian footpath too.

Near the steelworks and dam there's a reasonably sized town with houses, shops etc all visible as well as at least two hospitals and a medical university so it looks to be some sort of medical hub.

So the overall area looks to be highly strategic in terms of industry and infrastructure.


----------



## noirua (4 March 2022)

Ukraine military kills a top Russian general
					

Ukrainian defense forces say they killed Russian Maj. Gen. Andrei Sukhovetsky in combat earlier this week.




					www.foxnews.com


----------



## noirua (4 March 2022)




----------



## Telamelo (4 March 2022)

Putin has made it clear that he won't allow or risk Ukraine falling under NATO rule ever - he's had enough of just about every other country nearby to Russia being controlled/under NATO influence at Russia's doorstep so to speak - he told Macron re-iterating above reason for wanting to take all of Ukraine to ensure it doesn't fall into NATO hands. This is unification of Ukraine with Russia that Putin wants - to try keep NATO military threat at bay.

Putin will be cornered/pushed into possibly using nuclear weapons at some stage  (I don't condone this as I really hate the atrocities of war no matter the underlying reasons as it can never be justified the terrible horrific human suffering/misery caused by war).

I see a terrible escalation of Ukraine war crisis spreading into neighbouring countries - the prophecies are clear stating that this will happen but in the end neither one will win.

Putin will weaken NATO & the US allies much so.. howver Putin will eventually fall on his sword so to speak after wrecking much chaos/terrible misery across Europe & the Middle East.


----------



## Value Collector (4 March 2022)

xris said:


> Yes!!
> Soldiers are taught/drilled to OBEY orders, not to evaluate or judge them.




In some Armies that may be true, but in most western armies it is the soldiers responsibility to evaluate whether an order is Lawful or not, the fact that you were "following orders" is not a defence in you break laws and committing war crimes.

For example, if you have an insane Captain that orders you to fire on non combatants and you do it, both him and you can be jailed.


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## noirua (4 March 2022)

People can still get in and out of Kyef by the Southern route though it is being heavily bombed.  Holding off Russian troops for a week longer will allow more weapons and support from the South.  Attacking the supply route to Russian forces may well be the aim of the Ukraine armed forces. Oligarchs fear their money and assets are set to be sold for war reparations.








						Putin is ‘trying but failing’ to control Ukraine invasion narrative by shutting down non-state media
					

Two independent Russian news outlets that refused to spout the Kremlin's talking points following President Vladimir Putin’s invasion of Ukraine were forced off the air this week.




					www.foxnews.com


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## divs4ever (4 March 2022)

noirua said:


> Russian TV RT has today been halted in the UK.  It states onscreen that transmission is suspended.



 one less reason to pay for a TV license in the UK 

 and each license lost is another nail in the coffin of that cesspit BBC


----------



## divs4ever (4 March 2022)

Telamelo said:


> Putin has made it clear that he won't allow or risk Ukraine falling under NATO rule ever - he's had enough of just about every other country nearby to Russia being controlled/under NATO influence at Russia's doorstep so to speak - he told Macron re-iterating above reason for wanting to take all of Ukraine to ensure it doesn't fall into NATO hands. This is unification of Ukraine with Russia that Putin wants - to try keep NATO military threat at bay.
> 
> Putin will be cornered/pushed into possibly using nuclear weapons at some stage  (I don't condone this as I really hate the atrocities of war no matter the underlying reasons as it can never be justified the terrible horrific human suffering/misery caused by war).
> 
> ...



 NATO and EU were doing a fine job of weakening themselves  , but now they have Russia as a scapegoat as they pilfer more tax-payer money under the guise of 'security '


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## noirua (5 March 2022)

It does look as if Russia will take over the greater part of Ukraine.  As weapons are going into the country there will probably be an unstable situation continuing for years to come. That situation set then to continue until there is a new regime in Russia.

China's President Xi Jinping is reported to be peeved as Putin attacked before his Olympic winter Games are completed leading to abstention votes. However, he sees now that if the West stops importing so much oil and gas from Russia. Then he may well get Russian supplies at a very big discount to the market price. Russia have batted themselves into a stale mate position with Ukraine likely to continue to be costly.

The Russian Oligarchs are set to lose most of their assets in America as Biden offset their costs supporting Ukraine. Russia thus paying for the weapons that are set to kill their own army.


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## noirua (5 March 2022)

President Putin looks set to seize the assets of all foreign investors and also leading to foreign shareholders losing all their interests held in shares in retaliation.  Another move may be to nationalise all bitcoin miners interests even if Russian. Then continuing setting up Russia's own crypto currency.


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## sptrawler (5 March 2022)

noirua said:


> President Putin looks set to seize the assets of all foreign investors and also leading to foreign shareholders losing all their interests held in shares in retaliation.  Another move may be to nationalise all bitcoin miners interests even if Russian. Then continuing setting up Russia's own crypto currency.



One wonders if it will be a joint currency, between China and Russia.


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## noirua (5 March 2022)

Russian troops aiming to 'mine' nuclear plant to 'blackmail the whole of Europe:' Zaporizhzhia employees
					

Staff at the Zaporizhzhia nuclear power plant in Enerhodar sent a message to Ukrainian media and government authorities warning that the Russian troops that took the plant are trying to lay down explosives in order to "blackmail all of Europe."




					www.foxnews.com
				



Gannytskyi told Fox News Digital that Ukrainian officials fear that the Russians "can use this fact that they control the nuclear power plant to organize pressure on Ukraine, they can use that station like a big hostage." The workers warned "that they are putting explosive materials near the buildings of the nuclear plant to provide pressure on the Ukrainian army, people."


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## Telamelo (5 March 2022)

Russia is winning the war in Ukraine
					

Eight days into the Ukraine conflict, things may not be going exactly according to plan for Russia, but when it comes to the ground war, they are still winning.




					www.news.com.au


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## basilio (5 March 2022)

Russia and Ukraine are large suppliers of many critical products. The longer and more destructive this war becomes the higher the risk of  food and material shortages across the globe as well as escalating prices.
This analysis explores the question.

How a Russian invasion of Ukraine, the ‘breadbasket of Europe,’ could hit supply chains​Published Wed, Feb 23 202212:16 AM ESTUpdated Wed, Feb 23 20222:26 PM EST

Weizhen Tan@weizent
Share
Key Points

Russia is also the world’s top wheat exporter. Together with Ukraine, both account for roughly 29% of the global wheat export market.
“China is also a big recipient of Ukrainian corn — in fact, Ukraine replaced the U.S. as China’s top corn supplier in 2021,” said Dawn Tiura, president at Sourcing Industry Group.
Russia and Ukraine are also big suppliers of metals and other commodities, analysts said.
While the European Union would be affected by the escalating crisis, Germany would be especially hit.









						How a Russian invasion of Ukraine, the 'breadbasket of Europe,' could hit supply chains
					

From wheat to barley, and copper to nickel, analysts tell CNBC that supply chains are set to be disrupted as the Russia-Ukraine crisis takes a turn for the worse.




					www.cnbc.com


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## MovingAverage (5 March 2022)

basilio said:


> Russia and Ukraine are large suppliers of many critical products. The longer and more destructive this war becomes the higher the risk of  food and material shortages across the globe as well as escalating prices.
> This analysis explores the question.
> 
> How a Russian invasion of Ukraine, the ‘breadbasket of Europe,’ could hit supply chains​Published Wed, Feb 23 202212:16 AM ESTUpdated Wed, Feb 23 20222:26 PM EST
> ...




To be honest I really don't give a crap whether the west has to pay more for certain commodities as a result of this war...I'm more concerned about the humanitarian crisis that is playing out for millions of Ukrainians,


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## MovingAverage (5 March 2022)

noirua said:


> Russian troops aiming to 'mine' nuclear plant to 'blackmail the whole of Europe:' Zaporizhzhia employees
> 
> 
> Staff at the Zaporizhzhia nuclear power plant in Enerhodar sent a message to Ukrainian media and government authorities warning that the Russian troops that took the plant are trying to lay down explosives in order to "blackmail all of Europe."
> ...



I guess Putin's plan will be to use the threat of using the nuclear plant as one massive "bomb" if things don't go his way


----------



## MovingAverage (5 March 2022)

noirua said:


> The Russian Oligarchs are set to lose most of their assets in America as Biden offset their costs supporting Ukraine. Russia thus paying for the weapons that are set to kill their own army.
> View attachment 138597
> View attachment 138598



It's a shame Boris Johnson doesn't have the balls to do the same.


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## basilio (5 March 2022)

MovingAverage said:


> To be honest I really don't give a crap whether the west has to pay more for certain commodities as a result of this war...I'm more concerned about the humanitarian crisis that is playing out for millions of Ukrainians,




It won't simply be a matter of higher cost.  If the wheat exports from Russia /Ukraine are significantly  reduced there just won't be enough wheat/food to go around.  

*I agree however that the humanitarian crisis facing Ukraine is far more concerning.  *But this  particular thread was intended to focus on financial implications of the war.


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## MovingAverage (5 March 2022)

basilio said:


> It won't simply be a matter of higher cost.  If the wheat exports from Russia /Ukraine are significantly  reduced there just won't be enough wheat/food to go around.
> 
> *I agree however that the humanitarian crisis facing Ukraine is far more concerning.  *But this  particular thread was intended to focus on financial implications of the war.



Understand, but war has far reaching consequences and we will all pay a price one way or the other.

As a matter of interest--does Australian import wheat. I know we export a lot.


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## basilio (5 March 2022)

What happens if Russian oil and gas exports are stopped ?

A Russian oil and gas embargo is in the cards. And analysts warn it will have huge consequences​Published Thu, Mar 3 20226:57 AM ESTUpdated Thu, Mar 3 20226:46 PM EST

Sam Meredith@smeredith19
Share
Key Points

Western sanctions imposed on Russia over its invasion of Ukraine have so far been carefully constructed to avoid directly hitting the country’s energy exports.
The U.S. has said that sanctions on Russia’s oil and gas flows are “certainly on the table,” but that going after exports now could be counterproductive in terms of raising global energy prices.
“If Russia continues to wage this war ... it is only a matter of time before we’re talking about full secondary sanctions on energy exports,” Helima Croft, head of global commodities strategy at RBC, said.









						A Russian oil and gas embargo is in the cards. And analysts warn it will have huge consequences
					

The U.S. has said the potential for sanctions on Russia's oil and gas flows is "certainly on the table."




					www.cnbc.com


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## waterbottle (5 March 2022)

Re: Financial implications, wheat and oil futures have increased in price in response to the war.

Those companies able to secure valuable commodities will be be prized. Speculative plays will probably get demolished as the price of oil will force a response to inflation
🪙🪙


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## MovingAverage (5 March 2022)

I wonder whether any western intelligence agencies are planning to knock off Vlad?


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## Value Collector (5 March 2022)

MovingAverage said:


> I wonder whether any western intelligence agencies are planning to knock off Vlad?



Hopefully his early demise is arranged by someone inside his own government, like the 20 July Plot / “Operation  Valkyrie”, but hopefully this attempt succeeds.









						20 July plot - Wikipedia
					






					en.m.wikipedia.org


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## Smurf1976 (5 March 2022)

MovingAverage said:


> does Australian import wheat



Not as a bulk commodity so far as I'm aware, any imports would be indirect in the form of processed foods etc.

Australia exports ~70% of the wheat crop, major buyers being Indonesia, Philippines, Vietnam, China, Korea, Japan, India, New Zealand and various Middle East countries.

This map shows where it's grown in Australia: https://ipad.fas.usda.gov/rssiws/al/crop_production_maps/Australia/Australia_Wheat.jpg

From a financial perspective a higher price is obviously good for Australia and Australian farmers but there's humanitarian aspect that whilst Japan or the Middle East countries can no doubt pay the price, somewhere like India or Vietnam plausibly doesn't have the money.


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## Smurf1976 (5 March 2022)

basilio said:


> What happens if Russian oil and gas exports are stopped ?



Some figures to answer that:

World oil consumption = almost exactly 100 million barrels per day. A convenient round number but it's the actual figure not a rounded one.

Russia oil production = 10.8 million barrels per day with 7.5 million barrels being exported and the other 3.3 million used within the country.

So Russian oil exports supply 7.75% of worldwide consumption excluding Russia itself.

For gas, first a technical point that LNG (Liquefied Natural Gas) is chemically the same as pipeline natural gas but for practical logistical purposes is a separate product. Gas taken from the ground is only turned into LNG if the intent is to move it by ship or road tanker with the majority of gas globally simply being moved, as gas not liquid, through pipelines directly to consumers. LNG is stored at or below  -161 degrees C so whilst chemically the same, it's a different thing in a production sense.

To replace EU imports of Russian gas delivered by pipeline would add almost exactly one third to global LNG consumption.

Also Russia accounts for 8% of global LNG supply at present meaning that non-Russian producers would need to increase their LNG production by 45% to replace all Russian exports by pipeline and LNG. Either that or someone else delivers gas by pipeline to Europe.

Noting that many countries are isolated from world gas markets. For example New Zealand is self-contained, having production and consumption but no import or export indeed it has no physical means to import or export gas. Many other countries are like that, they have a gas industry but it's an isolated one, there's no physical ability to import or export. That results in the Russian gas situation being far more significant in terms of those countries which do have import / export facilities, the "heavy lifting" has to be done by only those countries. Someone turning down their heating in a country with an isolated gas market isn't helping at all despite their good intentions.


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## MovingAverage (5 March 2022)

Smurf1976 said:


> Not as a bulk commodity so far as I'm aware, any imports would be indirect in the form of processed foods etc.
> 
> Australia exports ~70% of the wheat crop, major buyers being Indonesia, Philippines, Vietnam, China, Korea, Japan, India, New Zealand and various Middle East countries.
> 
> ...





Value Collector said:


> Hopefully his early demise is arranged by someone inside his own government, like the 20 July Plot / “Operation  Valkyrie”, but hopefully this attempt succeeds.
> 
> 
> 
> ...



Do you think anyone within his own government has the balls to organise his assassination? They all seem very intimated by him.


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## cynic (5 March 2022)

Before one formulates a solution to a problem, it is important to actually understand the problem.

The director isn't  necessarily the script writer!

In the event that proves to be the case in the current situation, removal of the director will be naught more than a minor interruption ( whilst a new director is appointed).

The show will still go on!


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## Telamelo (6 March 2022)

President Putin Returns the Gold Standard to Russia
					

President Putin has announced the return of the gold standard in Russia which could make the Ruble the single most stable currency on the planet.




					www.planet-today.com


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## StockyGuy (6 March 2022)

Telamelo said:


> President Putin Returns the Gold Standard to Russia
> 
> 
> President Putin has announced the return of the gold standard in Russia which could make the Ruble the single most stable currency on the planet.
> ...




It's a clickbaity title yeah?  "abolishing the VAT (tax) on bullion" isn't a return to the gold standard as far as I understand?


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## rnr (6 March 2022)

MovingAverage said:


> Do you think anyone within his own government has the balls to organise his assassination? They all seem very intimated by him.




Hi @MovingAverage,

Without speaking to Putin first I believe you meant "They all seem very *intimidated* by him!


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## Value Collector (6 March 2022)

MovingAverage said:


> Do you think anyone within his own government has the balls to organise his assassination? They all seem very intimated by him.



Hopefully if he continues on the path of getting more and more crazy some one will, you don’t have to feel intimidated once a person is dead.


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## Smurf1976 (6 March 2022)

MovingAverage said:


> Do you think anyone within his own government has the balls to organise his assassination? They all seem very intimated by him.



I'm perhaps not using the correct terms here but do some reading on how narcissists operate.

Putin will almost certainly have "broken" everyone under him such that they're incapable of properly functioning and will see themselves as having no option other than to stick with him.

In short that's what they do. Cripple everyone under them mentally and, in the event someone refuses to go along with it, that person is "removed". Same in any context - dictators, parents, employers, anyone who goes down that track of abusive exploitation.

I'm probably not using the right terms there but that's my understanding of the basics. Destroy those under you to the point they're obedient yes men.


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## noirua (6 March 2022)

Smurf1976 said:


> I'm probably not using the right terms there but that's my understanding of the basics. Destroy those under you to the point they're obedient yes men.











						Was North Korea's No. 2 Killed For Not Clapping Hard Enough?
					

One reason North Korean leader Kim Jong Un had his uncle executed, some analysts say, is that he felt disrespected. The uncle, Jang Song Thaek, allegedly failed to applaud with enough enthusiasm when Kim was given a key post. It's also thought that Kim wanted to send a message: Don't mess with me.




					www.npr.org
				











						Jang Song-thaek - Wikipedia
					






					en.wikipedia.org
				



Soon after, in November 2013, Jang's senior aides Ri Ryong-ha and Jang Su-gil were executed.[31][32] Ri was reportedly accused of abusing his authority, while Jang Su-gil was found guilty of trying to organize a new faction and rejecting the system.[33][34]








						Kim’s niece kills herself in Paris
					

A 29-year-old North Korean woman committed suicide in Paris, France last month; intelligence sources have confirmed that she was a niece of Kim Jong-il, the North Korean leader.  The incident was another incident in a series of turbulent lives of women associated with North Korea’s ruling...



					koreajoongangdaily.joins.com


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## Telamelo (6 March 2022)

‘Declaration of war’: Putin erupts
					

Vladimir Putin has warned that sanctions imposed against Russia are equivalent to a “declaration of war”.




					www.news.com.au


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## Telamelo (6 March 2022)

‘*Declaration of war’*

Mr Putin raged that Russia “will not forget” external support for Ukraine - and warned he sees sanctions as a “declaration of war”

Mr Putin said there would be “colossal and catastrophic consequences not only for Europe but also the whole world” if foreign powers attempt to establish a no-fly zone in Ukraine.

*London in the firing line*

Mr Putin’s foreign ministry spokeswoman Maria Zakharova warned, “Russia will not forget Britain’s desire to co-operate with ultranationalist forces in Ukraine and the supply of British weapons to the Kyiv regime.

“The sanctions hysteria in which London plays one of the leading, if not the main, roles, leaves us no choice but to take proportionately tough retaliatory measures.

“London has made a final choice of open confrontation with Russia.”

*Excerpt from my above link provided


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## Telamelo (6 March 2022)

Potential WW3 looming ? how will NATO/US alliance stop Russia ??
this really worries/upsets me... those poor people suffering terribly in Ukraine it seems only going to get much worse


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## Knobby22 (6 March 2022)

Telamelo said:


> Potential WW3 looming ? how will NATO/US alliance stop Russia ??
> this really worries/upsets me... those poor people suffering terribly in Ukraine it seems only going to get much worse



Europe should up the ante. Gutless. Now is the perfect opportunity.


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## againsthegrain (6 March 2022)

Knobby22 said:


> Europe should up the ante. Gutless. Now is the perfect opportunity.



none of the elites want nuclear war,  china, Europe, Russia... life is good in any **** hole when you got personal servants wiping you with golden nappies.  The closer it gets to that the more the elites will try to burry Putin


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## Value Collector (6 March 2022)




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## waterbottle (6 March 2022)

Value Collector said:


>





Fair criticism, but I don't think any war has been run 100% according to plan or as intended...

The reality is that the Russians continue to capture more Ukranian territory on a daily basis, which will only serve to eliminate the logistical issues highlighted in the video.
The Western response is approaching an asymptote - sanctions and equipment supplies can only go so far.

Here's an alternative viewpoint for the war (first 2mins):


----------



## Value Collector (6 March 2022)

waterbottle said:


> Fair criticism, but I don't think any war has been run 100% according to plan or as intended...
> 
> The reality is that the Russians continue to capture more Ukranian territory on a daily basis, which will only serve to eliminate the logistical issues highlighted in the video.
> The Western response is approaching an asymptote - sanctions and equipment supplies can only go so far.
> ...




That’s generally how “Wars of attrition” work, but I wonder if the Ukrainians can keep their European supply line open maybe they can wear down the Russian, it’s also just a matter of how much Russia loses between now and then, and in the on going occupation and insurgency whether any “Victory” they claim is a pyrrhic victory or not.


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## waterbottle (6 March 2022)

Value Collector said:


> That’s generally how “Wars of attrition” work, but I wonder if the Ukrainians can keep their European supply line open maybe they can wear down the Russian, it’s also just a matter of how much Russia loses between now and then, and in the on going occupation and insurgency whether any “Victory” they claim is a pyrrhic victory or not.



The Russian objective was to keep NATO away from their borders, which they are succeeding in doing so.
Not too sure how useful European supply lines will be when the map looks like this:



Once the Ukrainian troops in the East are neutralized its game over for Zelensky unless another country decides to step in with and fight Russia. I doubt they would.


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## Value Collector (6 March 2022)

waterbottle said:


> The Russian objective was to keep NATO away from their borders, which they are succeeding in doing so.
> Not too sure how useful European supply lines will be when the map looks like this:
> View attachment 138651
> 
> ...



That is definitely not how Putin wanted the map to look at this time into the conflict, if European supply lines stay open, and stingers and javelins keep flowing into Ukraine, then Russia will keep losing tanks and helicopters.

The war will be tanking a huge financial toll on Russia, I am 90% sure they could eventually defeat the Ukraine army, but they will suffer big loses in doing so, and then that’s only half the battle, holding the ground against an insurgency can be even more expensive, all the while sanctions are crippling the Country, in my opinion they have done more harm to the Russian cause than good, regardless of who wins the war russia has failed, they haven’t improved their situation at all.


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## JohnDe (6 March 2022)

Does this sound familiar, so far?

On September 1, 1939, the German army under Adolf Hitler launched an invasion of Poland that triggered the start of World War II (though by 1939 Japan and China were already at war). The battle for Poland only lasted about a month before a Nazi victory. But the invasion plunged the world into a war that would continue for almost six years and claim the lives of tens of millions of people.​​Today, 75 years later, Hitler is regarded as one of history's great villains. So it's easy to forget how slowly and reluctantly the worlds most powerful democracies mobilized to stop him. France and Britain did declare war on Germany two days after the invasion of Poland, but it would take them another eight months before they engaged in full-scale war with the Nazis. The United States wouldn't join the war against Hitler until December 1941, a full two years after the war began.​​​​Why did Adolf Hitler invade Poland?​​The short answer is that Adolf Hitler was a ruthless dictator with dreams of conquering all of Europe. Annexing Poland was a step in that larger plan. The Polish military wasn't powerful enough to resist him, and Hitler calculated — correctly, as it turns out — that Europe's other powers wouldn't intervene in time.​​The invasion of Poland occurred almost exactly 25 years after the start of World War I in August 1914. That war ended in Germany's defeat, and in 1919 the victorious allies carved up territory that had been part of Germany, Austria-Hungary (Germany's defeated ally), and Russia (which had fallen to the Bolsheviks) into an array of new countries.​​One of these new countries was Poland, which before 1919 had last existed as an independent nation in 1795. Another was Czechoslovakia — its awkward name reflects the Allies' decision to combine areas dominated by two different ethnic groups, Czechs and Slovaks, into a single nation.​​Hitler was contemptuous of these new nations, which he regarded as artificial creations of the Allies. There were significant German populations in both countries, and Hitler used trumped-up concern for their welfare as a pretext to demand territorial concessions.​​In the infamous 1938 Munich Agreement, British Prime Minister Neville Chamberlain agreed to Hitler's annexation of the Sudetenland, portions of of Czechoslovakia with ethnic-German majorities (Czechoslovakia itself was excluded from the negotiations). Chamberlain claimed that the deal had averted another massive European war, but it only delayed the conflict while making Hitler more powerful when the war finally came.​​Chamberlain's accommodating stance in the 1938 negotiations convinced Hitler that the British and French wouldn't seriously resist further annexations to his east. And in any event, Hitler calculated — correctly as it turned out — that he could conquer Poland before the Allies could do anything to stop him.​​How did the Soviet Union react to the invasion of Poland?​








						75 years ago, Hitler invaded Poland, starting WWII
					

Looking back at Nazi Germany's invasion of Poland on September 1, 1939, which marked the start of World War II.




					www.vox.com


----------



## waterbottle (6 March 2022)

JohnDe said:


> Does this sound familiar, so far?
> 
> On September 1, 1939, the German army under Adolf Hitler launched an invasion of Poland that triggered the start of World War II (though by 1939 Japan and China were already at war). The battle for Poland only lasted about a month before a Nazi victory. But the invasion plunged the world into a war that would continue for almost six years and claim the lives of tens of millions of people.​​Today, 75 years later, Hitler is regarded as one of history's great villains. So it's easy to forget how slowly and reluctantly the worlds most powerful democracies mobilized to stop him. France and Britain did declare war on Germany two days after the invasion of Poland, but it would take them another eight months before they engaged in full-scale war with the Nazis. The United States wouldn't join the war against Hitler until December 1941, a full two years after the war began.​​View attachment 138656​​Why did Adolf Hitler invade Poland?​​The short answer is that Adolf Hitler was a ruthless dictator with dreams of conquering all of Europe. Annexing Poland was a step in that larger plan. The Polish military wasn't powerful enough to resist him, and Hitler calculated — correctly, as it turns out — that Europe's other powers wouldn't intervene in time.​​The invasion of Poland occurred almost exactly 25 years after the start of World War I in August 1914. That war ended in Germany's defeat, and in 1919 the victorious allies carved up territory that had been part of Germany, Austria-Hungary (Germany's defeated ally), and Russia (which had fallen to the Bolsheviks) into an array of new countries.​​One of these new countries was Poland, which before 1919 had last existed as an independent nation in 1795. Another was Czechoslovakia — its awkward name reflects the Allies' decision to combine areas dominated by two different ethnic groups, Czechs and Slovaks, into a single nation.​​Hitler was contemptuous of these new nations, which he regarded as artificial creations of the Allies. There were significant German populations in both countries, and Hitler used trumped-up concern for their welfare as a pretext to demand territorial concessions.​​In the infamous 1938 Munich Agreement, British Prime Minister Neville Chamberlain agreed to Hitler's annexation of the Sudetenland, portions of of Czechoslovakia with ethnic-German majorities (Czechoslovakia itself was excluded from the negotiations). Chamberlain claimed that the deal had averted another massive European war, but it only delayed the conflict while making Hitler more powerful when the war finally came.​​Chamberlain's accommodating stance in the 1938 negotiations convinced Hitler that the British and French wouldn't seriously resist further annexations to his east. And in any event, Hitler calculated — correctly as it turned out — that he could conquer Poland before the Allies could do anything to stop him.​​How did the Soviet Union react to the invasion of Poland?​
> 
> ...




Yes there are parallels.

But what's the solution here? Any physical altercation will result in nuclear warfare.
The only deterrent to nukes is nukes.
Frankly, Ukraine is not valuable enough for the West to contest when the alternative is MAD.


----------



## Dona Ferentes (6 March 2022)

waterbottle said:


> The Russian objective was to keep NATO away from their borders, which they are succeeding in doing so.




To me it looks more like Russia taking its borders up to NATO


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## waterbottle (6 March 2022)

Dona Ferentes said:


> To me it looks more like Russia taking its borders up to NATO




A buffer zone exists nonetheless


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## Value Collector (6 March 2022)

waterbottle said:


> A buffer zone exists nonetheless



If Russia just wanted to live and trade in peace, why should it fear NATO.

To me the best way to improve the lives of the average Russian is to maintain the trend of increasing co-operation and trade will the rest of the world, I think this war has put Russia back decades in terms of actual improvements to Russian living standards, but then again I don’t believe Putin actually cares about that.


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## JohnDe (6 March 2022)

waterbottle said:


> A buffer zone exists nonetheless




The NATO buffer is just an excuse, the real reason is territorial. Putin has said so himself, Ukraine land is Russia.

Look at the old map


----------



## waterbottle (6 March 2022)

Value Collector said:


> If Russia just wanted to live and trade in peace, why should it fear NATO.
> 
> To me the best way to improve the lives of the average Russian is to maintain the trend of increasing co-operation and trade will the rest of the world, I think this war has put Russia back decades in terms of actual improvements to Russian living standards, but then again I don’t believe Putin actually cares about that.




This argument doesn't hold. It's like arguing if you have nothing to fear then you have nothing to hide when someone is questioning you - it misses the principal issue, that is sovereignty.

If the West + Ukraine wanted to live and trade in peace, why should they expand NATO?

I don't think we can comment on living standards in Russia at this stage. The reality is there are several countries who will want what Russia are selling and will align themselves to hey access to them. Trade will continue, as it has always.


----------



## waterbottle (6 March 2022)

JohnDe said:


> The NATO buffer is just an excuse, the real reason is territorial. Putin has said so himself, Ukraine land is Russia.
> 
> Look at the old map
> 
> View attachment 138659




Yes this is a possibility.

Having said that, Russia has been on record since 1999 warning the West not to continue NATO's expansion as it would threaten Russian security. 
Russia's actions since then have been in response to NATO action instead of a colonisation effort.
Based on that, it would be sensible to assume that Russia's current actions are a response to NATO expansion and their goals would be to assure Russian future security.
 How that happens I do not know.


----------



## Value Collector (6 March 2022)

waterbottle said:


> This argument doesn't hold. It's like arguing if you have nothing to fear then you have nothing to hide when someone is questioning you - it misses the principal issue, that is sovereignty.
> 
> If the West + Ukraine wanted to live and trade in peace, why should they expand NATO?
> 
> I don't think we can comment on living standards in Russia at this stage. The reality is there are several countries who will want what Russia are selling and will align themselves to hey access to them. Trade will continue, as it has always.



I wasn’t making an argument, just stating a fact, there are plenty of peaceful countries in Europe that who having nothing to fear from NATO and who’s sovereignty is not in question.

I mean if NATO really wanted to invade Russia, now is the chance, but they aren’t. 

In my opinion Putins role should be to improve the lives of russian


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## waterbottle (6 March 2022)

Value Collector said:


> I wasn’t making an argument, just stating a fact, there are plenty of peaceful countries in Europe that who having nothing to fear from NATO and who’s sovereignty is not in question.
> 
> I mean if NATO really wanted to invade Russia, now is the chance, but they aren’t.
> 
> In my opinion Putins role should be to improve the lives of russian




It's an argument, at least made by governments, to paint Russia/Putin as a crazed invader when the ironic reality is that Russia has been on record voicing it's concern over an east-ward expanding Western military border since 1999.

What then is the purpose of NATO? Did they really think Russia was capable of overtaking Europe in the 90s post-collapse of the USSR?

Id like to point out explicitly here that I don't direct these questions at you personally. But rather am writing them down as the information we've received since the war has been clearly one-sided.
If history teaches us anything, there is more to the story.

More importantly, knowing what the full story is helps to predict future events - which is obviously an advantage when it comes to financial matters.

Regardless, I agree - the primary purpose of a politician is to improve the lives of their citizens. Putin would argue that this intervention would. The West would argue that Russia is now suffering an an economic hell. Time will reveal the truth.


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## JohnDe (6 March 2022)

waterbottle said:


> This argument doesn't hold. It's like arguing if you have nothing to fear then you have nothing to hide when someone is questioning you - it misses the principal issue, that is sovereignty.
> 
> If the West + Ukraine wanted to live and trade in peace, why should they expand NATO?
> 
> I don't think we can comment on living standards in Russia at this stage. The reality is there are several countries who will want what Russia are selling and will align themselves to hey access to them. Trade will continue, as it has always.





NATO-Russia relations: the facts​
Last updated: 27 Jan. 2022 11:26
Since Russia began its aggressive actions against Ukraine, Russian officials have accused NATO of a series of threats and hostile actions. This webpage sets out the facts.



MYTHS​

*NATO as a "threat"*
Claim: NATO's presence in the Baltic region is dangerous
Claim: NATO missile defence threatens Russian security
Claim: NATO is aggressive and a threat to Russia
Claim: NATO enlargement threatens Russia

*Promises and pledges*
Claim: NATO nuclear sharing and nuclear exercises violate the Non-Proliferation Treaty
Claim: NATO's enhanced forward presence violates the NATO-Russia Founding Act?
Claim: NATO promised Russia it would not expand after the Cold War

*NATO's Cooperation with Russia*
Claim: By suspending practical cooperation with Russia, NATO undermines security

*NATO enlargement *
Claim: Russia has the right to demand a guarantee that Ukraine and Georgia will not join NATO
Claim: NATO has bases all around the world

*NATO and its attitude to Russia*
Claim: NATO whips up 'hysteria' over Russia's exercises
Claim: NATO is a U.S. geopolitical project
Claim: NATO has tried to isolate or marginalise Russia
Claim: NATO should have been disbanded at the end of the Cold War

*NATO's operations*
Claim: NATO's operation in Afghanistan was a failure
Claim: NATO's operation over Libya was illegitimate
Claim: NATO's operation over Kosovo was illegitimate

NATO as a "threat"​*Claim: NATO's presence in the Baltic region is dangerous
Fact*: NATO has taken defensive and proportionate steps in response to a changed security environment. In response to Russia's use of military force against its neighbours, Allies requested a greater NATO presence in the Baltic region.
In 2016, we deployed four multinational battlegroups ─ or "enhanced forward presence" ─ to Estonia, Latvia, Lithuania and Poland. In 2017, the battlegroups became fully operational. More than 4,500 troops from Europe and North America work closely together with home defence forces.
NATO's presence in the region is at the request of the host nations, and Allied forces uphold the highest standards of conduct, both on and off duty.
As part of NATO Allies' commitment to transparency, Estonia, Latvia and Lithuania host Russian arms control inspectors. In Estonia, for instance, Russian inspectors recently conducted a Vienna Document Inspection, observing parts of exercise Spring Storm in May and June 2021.
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*Claim: NATO missile defence threatens Russian security
Fact*: NATO ballistic missile defence is not directed against Russia and cannot undermine Russia's strategic deterrence capabilities. It is designed to protect European Allies against missile threats from outside the Euro-Atlantic area.
The Aegis Ashore site in Romania is purely defensive. The interceptor missiles deployed there cannot be used for offensive purposes. The interceptors contain no explosives. They cannot hit objects on the Earth's surface – only in the air. In addition, the site lacks the software, the hardware and infrastructure needed to launch offensive missiles.
NATO invited Russia to cooperate on missile defence, an invitation extended to no other partner. Unfortunately, Russia refused to cooperate and rejected dialogue on this issue in 2013. Russian statements threatening to target Allies because of NATO's ballistic missile defence are unacceptable and counterproductive.
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*Claim: NATO is aggressive and a threat to Russia
Fact*: NATO is a defensive alliance, whose purpose is to protect our members. NATO’s official policy is that "the Alliance does not seek confrontation and poses no threat to Russia." NATO didn’t invade Georgia; NATO didn’t invade Ukraine. Russia did.
NATO has reached out to Russia consistently and publicly over the past 30 years. We worked together on issues ranging from counter-narcotics and counter-terrorism to submarine rescue and civil emergency planning – even during periods of NATO enlargement. However, in 2014, in response to Russia's aggressive actions against Ukraine, NATO suspended practical cooperation with Russia. We do not seek confrontation, but we can’t ignore Russia breaking international rules, undermining our stability and security.
In response to Russia's use of military force against Ukraine, NATO deployed four multinational battlegroups to the Baltic States and Poland in 2016. These units are not permanently based in the region, are in line with Allies’ international commitments, and amount to around 5,000 troops. They do not pose a threat to Russia’s 1,000,000 strong army. Before Russia's illegal annexation of Crimea, there were no Allied troops in the eastern part of the Alliance.
NATO remains open to meaningful dialogue with Russia. That is why NATO Secretary General Jens Stoltenberg has invited all members of the NATO-Russia Council to a series of meetings to discuss European security, including the situation in and around Ukraine, NATO-Russia relations, and arms control and non-proliferation.
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*Claim: NATO enlargement threatens Russia
Fact*: NATO is a defensive alliance. Our purpose is to protect our member states. Every country that joins NATO undertakes to uphold its principles and policies. This includes the commitment that "NATO does not seek confrontation and poses no threat to Russia," as reaffirmed at the Brussels Summit this year.
NATO enlargement is not directed against Russia. Every sovereign nation has the right to choose its own security arrangements. This is a fundamental principle of European security, one that Russia has also subscribed to and should respect. In fact, after the end of the Cold War, Russia committed to building an inclusive European security architecture, including through the Charter of Paris, the establishment of the OSCE, the creation of the Euro-Atlantic Partnership Council, and the NATO-Russia Founding Act.
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Promises and pledges​*Claim: NATO nuclear sharing and nuclear exercises violate the Non-Proliferation Treaty
Fact*: NATO's nuclear arrangements have always been consistent with the Non-Proliferation Treaty (NPT). The NPT is the cornerstone of the global non-proliferation regime. It has an essential role for international peace and security.
For decades, the United States has had nuclear weapons on the territory of some European NATO members as part of NATO's deterrence and defence capabilities. These weapons remain under the custody and control of the United States at all times. Furthermore, NATO's nuclear arrangements predate the NPT. They were fully addressed when the treaty was negotiated.
It is Russia that is using its nuclear weapons as a tool of intimidation. Russia uses irresponsible nuclear rhetoric and has stepped up its nuclear exercises. Russia is also expanding its nuclear capabilities by investing in novel and destabilising weapons. This activity and this rhetoric do not contribute to transparency and predictability, particularly in the context of a changed security environment.
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*Claim: NATO's enhanced forward presence violates the NATO-Russia Founding Act?
Fact*: NATO fully abides by the NATO-Russia Founding Act. In response to Russia's illegal and illegitimate annexation of Crimea and military build-up close to Alliance borders, NATO has deployed four multinational battlegroups – around 4,500 troops – to Latvia, Lithuania, Estonia and Poland.
These forces are rotational, defensive and well below any reasonable definition of "substantial combat forces." There has been no permanent stationing of substantial combat forces on the territory of eastern Allies. In fact, total force levels across the Alliance have substantially reduced since the end of the Cold War.
By signing the NATO-Russia Founding Act, Russia pledged not to threaten or use force against NATO Allies and any other state. It has broken this commitment, with the illegal and illegitimate annexation of Crimea, the territory of a sovereign state. Russia also continues to support militants in eastern Ukraine.
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*Claim: NATO promised Russia it would not expand after the Cold War
Fact*: Such an agreement was never made. NATO’s door has been open to new members since it was founded in 1949 – and that has never changed. This “Open Door Policy” is enshrined in Article 10 of NATO’s founding treaty, which says “any other European State in a position to further the principles of this Treaty and to contribute to the security of the North Atlantic” can apply for membership. Decisions on membership are taken by consensus among all Allies. No treaty signed by the United States, Europe and Russia included provisions on NATO membership.
The idea of NATO expansion beyond a united Germany was not on the agenda in 1989, particularly as the Warsaw Pact still existed. This was confirmed by Mikhail Gorbachev in an interview in 2014: "_The topic of 'NATO expansion' was not discussed at all, and it wasn't brought up in those years. I say this with full responsibility. Not a single Eastern European country raised the issue, not even after the Warsaw Pact ceased to exist in 1991. Western leaders didn't bring it up, either_."
Declassified White House transcripts also reveal that, in 1997, Bill Clinton consistently refused Boris Yeltsin's offer of a 'gentlemen's agreement' that no former Soviet Republics would enter NATO: _"I can't make commitments on behalf of NATO, and I'm not going to be in the position myself of vetoing NATO expansion with respect to any country, much less letting you or anyone else do so…NATO operates by consensus."_
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NATO's Cooperation with Russia​*Claim: By suspending practical cooperation with Russia, NATO undermines security
Fact*: In 2014, NATO suspended all practical cooperation with Russia, in response to its aggressive actions in Ukraine. This cooperation included projects in Afghanistan, on counter-terrorism and scientific cooperation. These projects did deliver results over time, but their suspension has not undermined the security of the Alliance or our ability to counter challenges such as terrorism.
We have made it clear that we continue to seek a constructive relationship with Russia. But an improvement in the NATO's relations with Russia will be contingent on a clear and constructive change in Russia's actions – one that demonstrates compliance with international law and Russia's international commitments.
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NATO enlargement​*Claim: Russia has the right to demand a guarantee that Ukraine and Georgia will not join NATO 
Fact*: Every sovereign nation has the right to choose its own security arrangements. This is a fundamental principle of European security and one which Russia has also subscribed to (see Helsinki Final Act here)
When Russia signed the NATO-Russia Founding Act, it also pledged to uphold "_respect for sovereignty, independence and territorial integrity of all states and their inherent right to choose the means to ensure their own security_".
Ukraine and Georgia have the right to choose their own alliances, and Russia has, by its own repeated agreement, no right to dictate that choice. We reject any idea of spheres of influence in Europe – they are part of history and should remain part of history.
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*Claim: NATO has bases all around the world
Fact*: NATO's military infrastructure outside the territory of Allies is limited to areas in which the Alliance is conducting operations. NATO has military facilities in Kosovo, for instance, for the KFOR peacekeeping mission.
NATO also has civilian liaison offices in partner countries such as Georgia, Moldova, Ukraine and Russia. These cannot be considered as "military bases".
Individual Allies have overseas bases on the basis of bilateral agreements and the principle of host-nation consent, in contrast with Russian bases on the territory of Moldova, Ukraine and Georgia.
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NATO and its attitude to Russia​*Claim: NATO whips up 'hysteria' over Russia's exercises
Fact*: Every nation has the right to conduct exercises, but it is important that they are conducted transparently and in line with international obligations.
To promote transparency, members of the OSCE, including Russia, commit to follow the provisions of the Vienna Document. If an exercise involves at least 9,000 personnel, it is subject to notification, and if it equals or exceeds 13,000 personnel, observers from OSCE states must be invited to attend the exercise.
NATO's concerns about Russian exercises are a direct result of Russia's lack of transparency. Since the end of the Cold War, Russia has never opened an exercise to mandatory Vienna Document observation. Russia has also used large snap exercises, including with tens of thousands of troops, to intimidate its neighbours. This practice raises tension and undermines trust. Russia's intervention in Georgia in 2008 and illegal annexation of Crimea in 2014 were masked by snap exercises.
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*Claim: NATO is a U.S. geopolitical project
Fact*: NATO was founded in 1949 by twelve sovereign nations: Belgium, Canada, Denmark, France, Iceland, Italy, Luxembourg, the Netherlands, Norway, Portugal, the United Kingdom and the United States. It has since grown to 30 Allies who each took an individual and sovereign decision to join this Alliance.
All decisions in NATO are taken by consensus, which means that a decision can only be taken if every single Ally accepts it.
Equally, the decision for any country to take part in NATO-led operations falls to that country alone, according to its own legal procedures. No member of the Alliance can decide on the deployment of any other Ally's forces.
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*Claim: NATO has tried to isolate or marginalise Russia 
Fact*: For more than three decades, NATO has consistently worked to build a cooperative relationship with Russia.
NATO began reaching out, offering dialogue in place of confrontation, at the London NATO Summit of July 1990 (declaration here). In the following years, the Alliance promoted dialogue and cooperation by creating the Partnership for Peace (PfP) and the Euro-Atlantic Partnership Council (EAPC), open to the whole of Europe, including Russia.
In 1997, NATO and Russia signed the Founding Act on Mutual Relations, Cooperation and Security, creating the NATO Russia Permanent Joint Council. In 2002, this was upgraded, creating the NATO-Russia Council (NRC) (The Founding Act can be read here)
We set out to build a good relationship with Russia. We worked together on issues ranging from counter-narcotics and counter-terrorism to submarine rescue and civil emergency planning.
However, in March 2014, in response to Russia's aggressive actions against Ukraine, NATO suspended practical cooperation with Russia. At the same time, NATO has kept channels for communication with Russia open. The NATO-Russia Council remains an important platform for dialogue. That is why NATO Secretary General Jens Stoltenberg has invited all members of the NATO-Russia Council to a series of meetings to improve security in Europe.
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*Claim: NATO should have disbanded at the end of the Cold War
Fact: *At the London Summit in 1990, NATO leaders agreed that "_we need to keep standing together, to extend the long peace we have enjoyed these past four decades_". This was their sovereign choice and was fully in line with their right to collective defence under the United Nations Charter.
Since then, sixteen more countries have chosen to join NATO. The Alliance has taken on new missions and adapted to new challenges, all while sticking to its fundamental principles of security, collective defence, and decision-making by consensus.
At the Brussels Summit in June 2021, NATO Allies agreed to do even more together to modernise and adapt the Alliance, to chart its course for the next decade and beyond. NATO's next Strategic Concept will be the blueprint for this adaptation. At a time of increased global competition, Europe and North America continue to stand strong together in NATO. The security challenges Allies face are too great for any country or continent to face alone. Together in NATO, we will continue to protect over 1 billion people.
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NATO's operations​*Claim: NATO's operation in Afghanistan was a failure
Fact*: NATO is conducting an honest, clear-eyed assessment of its engagement in Afghanistan, looking at what worked, and what did not. There are also difficult questions to be asked for the broader international community.
NATO led the military efforts in Afghanistan for many years, but this was not just a military effort.  Many others, including our national governments, the European Union and United Nations, also made major investments in trying to develop and build a better Afghanistan. We all have difficult questions to answer.
At the same time, we should recognise the significant gains we made together. NATO's mission prevented Afghanistan from being a safe haven for international terrorism. There have been no terrorist attacks from Afghanistan against our countries since 2001.
The international community, supported by our military presence, also helped create the conditions for significant social and economic progress. These gains cannot be easily reversed and we can see that from the role the younger generation, women and free media are playing today. While we no longer have troops on the ground, the international community still has leverage over the Taliban, including financial, economic and diplomatic tools. We will continue to hold the Taliban to account on terrorism, free passage, and human rights.
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*Claim: NATO's operation over Libya was illegitimate 
Fact*: The NATO-led operation was launched under the authority of two UN Security Council Resolutions (UNSCR), 1970 and 1973, both quoting Chapter VII of the UN Charter, and neither of which was opposed by Russia.
UNSCR 1973 authorized the international community "_to take all necessary measures_" to "_protect civilians and civilian populated areas under threat of attack_". This is what NATO did, with the political and military support of regional states and members of the Arab League.
After the conflict, NATO cooperated with the UN International Commission of Inquiry on Libya, which found no breach of UNSCR 1973 or international law, concluding instead that "_NATO conducted a highly precise campaign with a demonstrable determination to avoid civilian casualties_."
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*Claim: NATO's operation over Kosovo was illegitimate 
Fact*: The NATO operation for Kosovo followed over a year of intense efforts by the UN and the Contact Group, of which Russia was a member, to bring about a peaceful solution. The UN Security Council on several occasions branded the ethnic cleansing in Kosovo and the mounting number of refugees driven from their homes as a threat to international peace and security. NATO's Operation Allied Force was launched to prevent the large-scale and sustained violations of human rights and the killing of civilians.
Following the air campaign, the subsequent NATO-led peacekeeping operation, KFOR, which initially included Russia, has been under UN mandate (UNSCR 1244), with the aim of providing a safe and secure environment in Kosovo.
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						NATO-Russia relations: the facts
					

Since Russia began its aggressive actions against Ukraine, Russian officials have accused NATO of a series of threats and hostile actions. This webpage sets out the facts.




					www.nato.int


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## againsthegrain (6 March 2022)

What you guys are forgetting is countries like Ukraine Poland Moldavia are the ones that are making the choice. Why should it be Russia that dictates to the whole Eastern block not to join Nato because it imposes on their border? Russia has been bullying and squashing their neighbours for 100s of years.  Look at Belarus perfect example of a country that has been Russified and lost its identity.  Only about 10% Belorussians speak Belorussian, they have the Russian language forced onto them for many generations now. It might be a similar language and culture but its not the same.  Ukraine doesn't want to end up like that, nor does any of the other neighbours.  So it is not Nato expanding,  those countries have no better choice, at least under West you can speak your home language in the street without being dissapeared.


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## waterbottle (6 March 2022)

JohnDe said:


> NATO-Russia relations: the facts​
> Last updated: 27 Jan. 2022 11:26
> Since Russia began its aggressive actions against Ukraine, Russian officials have accused NATO of a series of threats and hostile actions. This webpage sets out the facts.
> View attachment 138664
> ...




A rose-tinted view of what NATO does, obviously published by NATO.

Of course NATO will argue for its existence - it'd be foolish to think that they wouldn't. But to then believe their arguments that operations in Afghanistan and Libya were successful and beneficial to the local population? Please...

More to the point, none of this addresses Putin's main issue - which is the persistent, east-ward expansion of NATO since 1999. Not 2008, or 2014.
In fact, Russia's security concerns have been communicated for much longer as described by NATO's own website:



> Declassified White House transcripts also reveal that,* in 1997, Bill Clinton consistently refused Boris Yeltsin's offer of a 'gentlemen's agreement' that no former Soviet Republics would enter NATO: "I can't make commitments on behalf of NATO, and I'm not going to be in the position myself of vetoing NATO expansion with respect to any country, much less letting you or anyone else do so…NATO operates by consensus."*




These concerns have been present for much longer than what is currently being portrayed. And if it were mentioned in private discussions in 1997, then it would have been again both privately & publicly for many years after.

Framing the war as a recent escalation of events is disingenuous and frankly, propaganda.


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## Value Collector (6 March 2022)

waterbottle said:


> It's an argument, at least made by governments, to paint Russia/Putin as a crazed invader when the ironic reality is that Russia has been on record voicing it's concern over an east-ward expanding Western military border since 1999.
> 
> What then is the purpose of NATO? Did they really think Russia was capable of overtaking Europe in the 90s post-collapse of the USSR?
> 
> ...



The purpose of NATO was to united a bunch of little countries in an alliance with some bigger ones to prevent Russia attacking those smaller nations one by one as it is doing now with Ukraine.

You mentioned Russia has its right to sovereignty but what about Ukraines right to Sovereignty, if the people of Ukraine want to move ahead and look to the west more, surely that’s their sovereign right, Putin is like a jealous ex-boyfriend that doesn’t want his ex seeing other people.

You might not want to believe that the Russian people’s standard of living will be affected, but what about the Ukrainian People? What crimes have they committed against Russia to justify the Invasion?


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## Value Collector (6 March 2022)

waterbottle said:


> A rose-tinted view of what NATO does, obviously published by NATO.
> 
> Of course NATO will argue for its existence - it'd be foolish to think that they wouldn't. But to then believe their arguments that operations in Afghanistan and Libya were successful and beneficial to the local population? Please...
> 
> ...



You keep talking about NATO “Pushing Eastward” is that really so? Or was it “Pulled Eastward” as independent sovereign nations choose to join?

It’s not like NATO is firing missiles and invading these countries and forcing them to join, that’s what Russia is doing.


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## Dona Ferentes (6 March 2022)

waterbottle said:


> More to the point, none of this addresses Putin's main issue - which is the persistent, east-ward expansion of NATO since 1999. Not 2008, or 2014.
> In fact, Russia's security concerns have been communicated for much longer as described by NATO's own website:
> 
> These concerns have been present for much longer than what is currently being portrayed. And if it were mentioned in private discussions in 1997, then it would have been again both privately & publicly for many years after.
> ...



Yes, amazing. It's really nasty for people to want to achieve their own outcomes. ... because nothing happened in 1999. Well, not much.


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## Telamelo (6 March 2022)

I have an uneasy/anxious feeling that this Ukraine war will soon spread into neighbouring countries such as Poland - NATO & US are sending heaps of military equipment/weapons & fighter jets there as we speak - Putin may think of targeting these military bases in Poland (he sees as an immediate threat being close proximity to Ukraine) to try wipe them out resulting in WW3


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## waterbottle (6 March 2022)

Value Collector said:


> The purpose of NATO was to united a bunch of little countries in an alliance with some bigger ones to prevent Russia attacking those smaller nations one by one as it is doing now with Ukraine.
> 
> You mentioned Russia has its right to sovereignty but what about Ukraines right to Sovereignty, if the people of Ukraine want to move ahead and look to the west more, surely that’s their sovereign right, Putin is like a jealous ex-boyfriend that doesn’t want his ex seeing other people.
> 
> You might not want to believe that the Russian people’s standard of living will be affected, but what about the Ukrainian People? What crimes have they committed against Russia to justify the Invasion?




If NATO's goal was to unite small nations against Russia, then it is by definition an offensive organisation, and cannot claim that it's actions are defensive. Ergo, Russia's response is legitimate as an offensive force has progressively migrated towards it borders a reaction was inevitable.
My opinion is that NATO was never intended to be an offensive organisation. But it's use by Western powers to recruit smaller Eastern European nations for political purposes has transformed it into one, and that has certainly been the interpretation from Russia. 
What was the US' reaction during the Cuban missile crisis when Russia wanted to shift defensive position's to America's backyard? The rhetoric at the time was that this was an offensive action - the same interpretation is applied here.

I agree, Ukraine does have a right to sovereignty, self-government and self-determination. But that also means that a nation must be ready to deal with the ramifications & repercussions of those decisions.
The decision to join NATO may have been made in the context of some implicit or explicit guarantee of Western military support, whilst Russia was bellowing threats about lines not being crossed. The Ukrainian government made a decision, and this is the consequence.
No country lives in a vacuum. There is no right or wrong here. Just actions & reactions.

Yes, the suffering of refugees cannot be ignored - it is what makes war so terrible when innocent people have their lives destroyed. But I think that they will fare better than their compatriots who were victims of NATO-assisted wars in Libya, Syria, Afghanistan & Iraq.


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## Value Collector (6 March 2022)

waterbottle said:


> If NATO's goal was to unite small nations against Russia, then it is by definition an offensive organisation, and cannot claim that it's actions are defensive. Ergo, Russia's response is legitimate as an offensive force has progressively migrated towards it borders a reaction was inevitable.
> My opinion is that NATO was never intended to be an offensive organisation. But it's use by Western powers to recruit smaller Eastern European nations for political purposes has transformed it into one, and that has certainly been the interpretation from Russia.
> What was the US' reaction during the Cuban missile crisis when Russia wanted to shift defensive position's to America's backyard? The rhetoric at the time was that this was an offensive action - the same interpretation is applied here.
> 
> ...



It could only be considered an offensive organisation if it’s goal was to united smaller nations to attack Russia, which in its 73 year existence it hasn’t done.

It’s goal is clearly to defend, the treaty isn’t activated until one of its member states is attacked.

And secondly, Russia helped create those Syrian Refugees, and NATO countries only fought in Afghanistan because New York was attacked.


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## JohnDe (6 March 2022)

waterbottle said:


> A rose-tinted view of what NATO does, obviously published by NATO.
> 
> Of course NATO will argue for its existence - it'd be foolish to think that they wouldn't. But to then believe their arguments that operations in Afghanistan and Libya were successful and beneficial to the local population? Please...
> 
> ...




If that's a rose tinted view, yours is a Putin tinted view. You have given no evidence to your theory, only Putin double speak.

*NATO* was formed after WWII to stop another war from aggression of a nation against others, designed as a treaty to combine the defences of all signatories so that if an aggressive nation attacks one country they attack all. It is a protection against bullying nations.

It is sad that this history has not been taught in all schools.
​_Only 14 articles long, the Treaty is one of the shortest documents of its kind. The carefully crafted articles were the subject of several months of discussion and negotiations before the Treaty was actually signed._​​_However, once Belgium, Canada, Denmark, France, Iceland, Italy, Luxembourg, the Netherlands, Norway, Portugal, the United Kingdom and the United States had discussed these issues, they agreed on a document that would establish the North Atlantic Alliance._​​_On 4 April 1949, the 12 countries signed the North Atlantic Treaty at the Departmental Auditorium in Washington D.C., the city which lends its name to the Treaty._​​_The Treaty committed each member to share the risk, responsibilities and benefits of collective defence – a concept at the very heart of the Alliance. In 1949, the primary aim of the Treaty was to create a pact of mutual assistance to counter the risk that the Soviet Union would seek to extend its control of Eastern Europe to other parts of the continent. The Treaty also required members not to enter into any international commitments that conflicted with the Treaty and committed them to the purposes and principles of the Charter of the United Nations (UN).  Moreover, it stated that NATO members formed a unique community of values committed to the principles of individual liberty, democracy, human rights and the rule of law._​​_In addition to collective defence and key values, the principle of consensus decision-making and the importance of consultation define the spirit of the Organization, together with its defensive nature and its flexibility._​​_The signing of the Treaty led to the creation of the Alliance and, only later, did a fully-fledged organisation develop. Strictly speaking, the North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO) provides the structure which enables the goals of the Alliance to be implemented. To date, those goals have not fundamentally changed nor the Treaty been rewritten. The only so-called “amendments” made so far stem from the series of accession protocols which have been added as new members join, illustrating the foresight of its drafters and their ability to marry international concerns and objectives with national interests._​









						North Atlantic Treaty - Wikipedia
					






					en.wikipedia.org


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## JohnDe (6 March 2022)

Value Collector said:


> You mentioned Russia has its right to sovereignty but what about Ukraines right to Sovereignty...
> 
> You might not want to believe that the Russian people’s standard of living will be affected, but *what about the Ukrainian People? What crimes have they committed against Russia to justify the Invasion?*




And the bombardment of their cities and essential infrastructure? The Russian army is destroying a whole nation, sending them back to the stone age.

Putin and the Russian military are committing war atrocities and crimes against humanity.


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## JohnDe (6 March 2022)

_West’s sanctions over Ukraine mean war: Vladimir Putin_​_
Vladimir Putin has equated global sanctions imposed over his invasion of Ukraine with a “declaration of war”, and warned that any enforcement of a no-fly zone over his besieged neighbour would have “colossal and catastrophic consequences”.

The Russian President issued the double-pronged threat after Russian artillery pummelled the Ukrainian city of Mariupol in violation of a ceasefire to allow civilians to escape.

With fears growing of direct conflict between Western forces and Russia – both nuclear-armed – the US and Moscow set up a new direct phone line to reduce the risks of “miscalculation”. Russian forces attacked and seized Europe’s largest nuclear plant at Zaporizhzhia on Friday, pushing Kyiv to accuse Moscow of “nuclear terror”.....

....The evacuation from the southern port city of Mariupol was suspended minutes after it began on Saturday morning, forcing civilians back into hiding as Russia disregarded the agreement and continued its bombardment

Further north, Russia continued its three-pronged advance on Kyiv, shelling residential areas south of the capital for the first time late on Saturday_


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## waterbottle (6 March 2022)

JohnDe said:


> If that's a rose tinted view, yours is a Putin tinted view. You have given no evidence to your theory, only Putin double speak.
> 
> *NATO* was formed after WWII to stop another war from aggression of a nation against others, designed as a treaty to combine the defences of all signatories so that if an aggressive nation attacks one country they attack all. It is a protection against bullying nations.
> 
> ...




John, you've outlined in your post that NATO existed to combat the USSR. The USSR collapsed in 1991. So what exactly was NATO defending against after 1991?


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## Smurf1976 (6 March 2022)

waterbottle said:


> The reality is there are several countries who will want what Russia are selling and will align themselves to hey access to them. Trade will continue, as it has always.



I can see that being an initial response but perhaps not the long term one.

China for example is going to have to choose Russia or the West, supporting the former will cost them business with the latter slowly but surely I expect.


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## JohnDe (6 March 2022)

waterbottle said:


> John, you've outlined in your post that NATO existed to combat the USSR. The USSR collapsed in 1991. So what exactly was NATO defending against after 1991?




You obviously did not read what I posted, because the answer to that specific question is there.


----------



## JohnDe (6 March 2022)




----------



## waterbottle (6 March 2022)

Long but interesting if you have time


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## moXJO (6 March 2022)

Diplomacy first gentlemen. It is never a good time to send young men to go and die in war. And as much as I advocated for war in the past. I was wrong.

Think about it this way. The west went into Iraq and absolutely levelled the place. 
Israel is in Palestine. Hell, the US is the only country to nuke civilians (or anyone for that matter).
The west is also arming the Ukraine massively to cause a huge number of deaths.
We have had high ranking US members calling for Putin to be assassinated.

Are we that righteous, that we are really pushing for this without exhausting every option?

There seems to be a massive disconnect with a huge amount of men, of all ages. There are a lot that are not just hoping but actively going to Ukraine to fight. Can't but help to think that many want this to happen.


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## noirua (6 March 2022)

Ukraine war: Russia's corruption is 'no doubt' affecting its military's combat performance
					

Russia has suffered significant logistical and strategic issues, but videos and photos on social media of captured equipment show poor maintenance and quality.




					www.foxnews.com


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## The Triangle (7 March 2022)

noirua said:


> Ukraine war: Russia's corruption is 'no doubt' affecting its military's combat performance
> 
> 
> Russia has suffered significant logistical and strategic issues, but videos and photos on social media of captured equipment show poor maintenance and quality.
> ...



Hard to know what's propaganda vs fact with these articles.  But we know Russia spends around 1/10 what the US does on it's military.   So that lack of spending must also show up somewhere other than old rations.  Missiles aren't cheap.  Firing a few dozen a day for 10 days or so would eat up a lot of $.  A few downed helicopters and jets at $50 million a pop maybe?

Wonder when both sides will just simply run out of heavy weapons.


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## Smurf1976 (7 March 2022)

moXJO said:


> Are we that righteous, that we are really pushing for this without exhausting every option?



As a concept I'm quite strongly against war.

But what other options exist right now if Putin carries on?

It would mean some pain for the rest of the world but if we got serious with the sanctions, rather than continuing to send Russia ~1 billion USD per day for oil and gas, then that might eventually work?


----------



## againsthegrain (7 March 2022)

The Triangle said:


> Hard to know what's propaganda vs fact with these articles.  But we know Russia spends around 1/10 what the US does on it's military.   So that lack of spending must also show up somewhere other than old rations.  Missiles aren't cheap.  Firing a few dozen a day for 10 days or so would eat up a lot of $.  A few downed helicopters and jets at $50 million a pop maybe?
> 
> Wonder when both sides will just simply run out of heavy weapons.




I read some statistics in a article somewhere I forget now. For example firing big mounted machine guns which spit out thousands of bullets per minute or more adds up to a few trucks worth of ammo in not a very long time at all.


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## moXJO (7 March 2022)

Smurf1976 said:


> It would mean some pain for the rest of the world but if we got serious with the sanctions, rather than continuing to send Russia ~1 billion USD per day for oil and gas, then that might eventually work?



That's just it. What's the west willing to suffer to avoid deaths?
Not much I'm guessing. 

It all seems very manufactured. No problem with Putin getting taken out internally. 
But something feels very off with this all. 

The other thing is the question of why the US and Europe are really involved and how this thing really started. This goes a lot deeper than dropping "freedom bombs". Because it seems like a great way to grind down the Russian economy and deplete the military by proxy.

I've got no love for the Russian government. But I'm not blind to the fact we have sneaky arse western governments that are totally devoid of honesty.


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## moXJO (7 March 2022)

Also floods should bring a bumper crop next year for Australia. Just in time to feed the world. Invest accordingly.


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## JohnDe (7 March 2022)

moXJO said:


> That's just it. What's the west willing to suffer to avoid deaths?
> Not much I'm guessing.
> 
> It all seems very manufactured. No problem with Putin getting taken out internally.
> ...




Sounds like a lot of conspiracy theories in that statement 

The situation is very dangerous and delicate, it could escalate to a multi-nation war with extreme  and severe consequences which include nuclear retaliation from Russia.

The US and NATO can't offer air defense or boots on the ground to help the Ukrainian people, because Putin has warned every nation that he is ready to use his nuclear arsenal.

Some people are trying connect dots that aren't there, and find similarities with US incursions into Iraq and Afghanistan to the current Russian invasion of the Ukraine. The USA never claimed that Iraq and Afghanistan was the territory of the USA, unlike Putin's Russia which has claimed that the Ukraine is Russian territory and its democratically elected government are Nazis waging genocide on its people, with no evidence other than all the Ukrainian people willing to fight for their neighbours and land.

Two world wars began in Europe, the people of the world do not want another. After the cold war ended Western governments opened their business doors to Russia, creating immense wealth for Russia and its people. Instead of using most of the new found wealth to improve the the lives of Russian citizens and modernise the country, the powerful have instead made a few super wealthy and the armed forces expand.

Countries like Germany may now be heading towards a recession because they put all their eggs in the Russian energy basket. Other countries are also in the same boat and on top of an energy crises is the added stress of food shortage from the loss of Russian and Ukraine crops, transport logistics, commercial flights being re-routed, the possibility of 10 million Ukrainian refugees, toxic pollution from war on their borders, death and destruction and fear of a world war.

Only conspiracy theorists and movies see western governments being "sneaky" and pushing countries to world wars.

*Claim: *_*NATO has tried to isolate or marginalise Russia*_​_*Fact*: For more than three decades, NATO has consistently worked to build a cooperative relationship with Russia._​_NATO began reaching out, offering dialogue in place of confrontation, at the London NATO Summit of July 1990 (declaration here). In the following years, the Alliance promoted dialogue and cooperation by creating the Partnership for Peace (PfP) and the Euro-Atlantic Partnership Council (EAPC), open to the whole of Europe, including Russia._​_In 1997, NATO and Russia signed the Founding Act on Mutual Relations, Cooperation and Security, creating the NATO Russia Permanent Joint Council. In 2002, this was upgraded, creating the NATO-Russia Council (NRC) (The Founding Act can be read here)_​_We set out to build a good relationship with Russia. We worked together on issues ranging from counter-narcotics and counter-terrorism to submarine rescue and civil emergency planning._​_However, in March 2014, in response to Russia's aggressive actions against Ukraine, NATO suspended practical cooperation with Russia. At the same time, NATO has kept channels for communication with Russia open. The NATO-Russia Council remains an important platform for dialogue. That is why NATO Secretary General Jens Stoltenberg has invited all members of the NATO-Russia Council to a series of meetings to improve security in Europe._​


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## noirua (7 March 2022)

Putin Lost the Digital War Abroad. Will He Lose at Home?
					

Its diplomatic efforts in tatters, its agencies beset by cyber vigilantes, the Russian government is still choking off the information that fuels its homegrown protest movement.




					www.defenseone.com


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## noirua (7 March 2022)

LIVE UPDATES: Biden admin supports NATO sending jets to Ukraine while calls intensify for the US to do more​








						NATO countries have 'green light' to send fighter jets to Ukraine, Blinken says
					

NATO members have a "green light" to send fighter jets as part of their military aid to support Ukraine against the Russian invasion, U.S. Secretary of State Antony Blinken said Sunday.




					www.foxnews.com


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## againsthegrain (7 March 2022)

noirua said:


> LIVE UPDATES: Biden admin supports NATO sending jets to Ukraine while calls intensify for the US to do more​
> 
> 
> 
> ...




I read headings that Russians are sending in Syrian soldiers into Ukraine.  This is escalating even more as we were hoping it will run out of steam.  So does this mean Syria officialy is declaring war on Ukraine?


----------



## moXJO (7 March 2022)

JohnDe said:


> Sounds like a lot of conspiracy theories in that statement
> 
> The situation is very dangerous and delicate, it could escalate to a multi-nation war with extreme  and severe consequences which include nuclear retaliation from Russia.
> 
> ...



You have got to be kidding me right?
Is this a serious post?
We went into Iraq for less.
As for government overthrows or support of violent regimes, well we have plenty:
Afghanistan, Albania, Argentina, Brazil, Cambodia, China and lets not forget the sht puddle that was Cuba. And that list is  only up to D so far.

Russia was making accusations against Obama long before this blew up.





__





						Redirect Notice
					





					www.google.com.au
				




*WASHINGTON (Reuters) - A conversation between a State Department official and the U.S. ambassador to Ukraine that was posted on YouTube revealed an embarrassing exchange on U.S. strategy for a political transition in that country, including a crude American swipe at the European Union.

*
_*The leaked conversation appeared certain to embarrass the United States and seemed designed to bolster charges - from Russia, among others - that the Ukrainian opposition is being manipulated by Washington, which President Barack Obama's administration strenuously disputes.*_

This was 2014.

We also had McCain and  Senator Chris Murphy rock up to the protest and speak. Back in 2014. You also had John McCain have a dinner with the likes of Svoboda (they captured about 10% of the vote and were growing).
Maybe learn a bit about Svoboda roots and how it to had influence in how all this went.
His one pre 2012 article (tried to make all articles pre 2015)








						Svoboda: The rise of Ukraine's ultra-nationalists
					

The ultra-nationalist Svoboda party was a big winner in Ukraine's recent election. How radical is it?



					www.google.com.au
				




So maybe back off your "Nazi conspiracy" when you think it's entirely a Russian disinformation campaign. Because that's not the only truth in a propaganda war.
 We had roughly $500 million pour into the region from I think 2009 to possibly 2014 from the US. Then weapons.


And all thus isn't even into the why it all began in the first place. Do you honestly think the US, Russia or Europe would be involved if it wasn't strategically advantageous. It's nothing to do with freedom and its not a conspiracy theory.

There are so many talking points but I don't have the time. But maybe ready deep into the situation rather then believe whatever idiots tell you.


----------



## JohnDe (7 March 2022)

moXJO said:


> You have got to be kidding me right?
> Is this a serious post?
> We went into Iraq for less.
> As for government overthrows or support of violent regimes, well we have plenty:
> ...




Yes, it does seem that you have the views of a kid.

The invasion of Iraq should never have happened. However, using the Iraq war as justification for the Russian invasion of Ukraine is so low and weak I feel dirty just answering you.

Putin believes that the Ukraine land is part of Russia, he presumed that the majority of the Ukrainian people agreed with him and would welcome his armies with open arms, causing the Ukraine defence forces to step down and allow the Russian army control and forcing the Ukrainian government to stand down. To Putin's and his army's surprise, the Ukrainian people believe that they are their own people with a land and they are fighting for their independence.

Russian army and air-force is currently destroying cities, they are bombing, shelling, and using missiles and cluster bombs in civilian areas.

As for the Nazi comment, have you watched any of Putin's explanation on why he sent in the army?

_To justify his invasion of Ukraine, Russian President Vladimir Putin has leveled an absurd charge: that forces must intervene to stop the Nazification of Ukraine at the hands of its Jewish leader, Volodymyr Zelensky._​​_“__*We will strive for the demilitarization and denazification of Ukraine*__,” the Russian leader said in an address last week ordering a military attack on Ukraine, adding his goal was “to protect people who have been abused by the genocide of the Kyiv regime for eight years.”_​
And why has Ukraine become so militarised?

_The Russo-Ukrainian War__ is an ongoing war primarily involving Russia, pro-Russian forces, and Belarus on one side, and Ukraine and its international supporters on the other. Conflict began in February 2014 following the Revolution of Dignity, and focused on the status of Crimea and parts of the Donbas, internationally recognised as part of Ukraine. The conflict includes the Russian annexation of Crimea (2014), the war in Donbas (2014–present), naval incidents, cyberwarfare, and political tensions. Intentionally concealing its involvement, Russia gave military backing to separatists in the Donbas from 2014 onwards. Having built up a large military presence on the border from late 2021, Russia launched a full-scale invasion of Ukraine on 24 February 2022, which is ongoing._​


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## Smurf1976 (7 March 2022)

JohnDe said:


> Countries like Germany may now be heading towards a recession because they put all their eggs in the Russian energy basket.



On that one I'll simply note that people whose focus is energy have been warning of that one for a very long time. It was an entirely foreseeable, and actually foreseen by more than a few, circumstance.

Relying on a plausibly hostile foreign supplier with "just in time" delivery for something on which society is highly dependent is nothing short of crazy, it's just asking for trouble.


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## moXJO (7 March 2022)

JohnDe said:


> Yes, it does seem that you have the views of a kid.
> 
> The invasion of Iraq should never have happened, but for you to use Iraq as justification for the Russian invasion of a free and democratic Ukraine is so low and weak I feel dirty just answering you.
> 
> ...




Uh huh. I'm not the one advocating to cross the red line into ww3 so we can all enjoy dying. I can send you a link to go join the battle instead and keep the numbers low.



I said the government is "sneaky" and you said that wasn't the case. I then listed a small sample (out of the many many examples) of the times the US overthrew governments, or supported criminals. You disputing past history?
There was no justification. Simply the west is just as capable.

The point of enlightening others about Svoboda (and really the azov battalion) is their politics.  Others can dig right in themselves as it's not just some Russian "conspiracy". It started off as a neo nazi group in its heyday. That's not to say that Ukraine is ultimately a nation of "Nazis". Simply that this group has heavily influenced politics and propaganda for a long time as well. You can look at Poland's right wing as well.

The truth goes a lot deeper then the surface level sht you quote. It was ultimately 'the Ukrainian government's decision to suspend the signing of an association agreement with the European Union' that started this mess.
 But it comes down to: people are dying because Ukraine is of strategic position to others.  That's it.


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## againsthegrain (7 March 2022)

these days it doesn't take much to be a neo nazi at all, have a different opinion to the left, show some patriotism and your public enemy no1


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## JohnDe (7 March 2022)

moXJO said:


> Uh huh. I'm not the one advocating to cross the red line into ww3 so we can all enjoy dying. I can send you a link to go join the battle instead and keep the numbers low.
> 
> 
> 
> ...




"_I said the government is "sneaky" and you said that wasn't the case_" You sure did say that, and as well as a few other things. "_something feels very off with this all....This goes a lot deeper than dropping "freedom bombs".... I'm not blind to the fact we have sneaky arse western governments_"

Where did I say '_that wasn't the case'_

In 1994 Ukraine became a NATO partner, the first step to becoming a member of NATO.
The Ukraine had also wanted to join the EU, with its diplomats coming to an agreement with the European Union to join. However the government refused to join and instead signed an agreement with Russia. Which caused 100,000's Ukrainian citizens to march and protest (remember that democratic countries allow protesting, we do the same in Australia), which turned violent when government forces started shooting.
Ukranian protests increased, calling for the country to join the EU. Elected members of the Ukraine parliament listened and were appalled by the violence that the President caused, and voted for his the removal. Democracy at work, a bit like the 'dimisal'.
Putin did not like the idea of a democracy on the front door of Russia, so invaded and took Crimea, even though both countries had a long standing agreement - 
_In the 1994 Budapest Memorandum on Security Assurances Russia was among those who affirmed to respect the territorial integrity of Ukraine (including Crimea) and to refrain from the threat or use of force against the territorial integrity or political independence of Ukraine.[159][163] The 1997 Russian–Ukrainian Treaty on Friendship, Cooperation, and Partnership again reaffirmed the inviolability of the borders between both states,[163] and required Russian forces in Crimea to respect the sovereignty of Ukraine, honor its legislation and not interfere in the internal affairs of the country.__[165]_​
Yes you are correct, there is a lot more to the story. What you don't take into account is that you must read from both sides, and maybe talk to some involved, to understand what has and is happening.

The majority of the Ukrainian people have wanted and have demonstrated for independence for generations. It's not about what the west or the US want or what he or she says. It is what a country with it's own language and heritage wants and what they have had to endure to try and get it.

Putin invaded the Ukranine, not the other way around. NATO is a defensive pact, with specific rules that stop it from being an offensive force, it works like a democracy where leaders from each member nation debate and vote. 


_*Russia’s illegal annexation of Crimea.*__ Attention now focuses on the Russian-Ukrainian conflict in Donbas, a conflict that has taken some 14,000 lives, but Moscow’s seizure of Crimea — the biggest land-grab in Europe since World War II — has arguably done as much or more damage to Europe’s post-Cold War security order._​​_Ukraine lacks the leverage to restore sovereignty over Crimea, at least for the foreseeable future. But that does not mean the West should accept it. Doing so might only encourage the Kremlin to believe that taking the territory of other countries is an action that it can get away with._​​_*CRIMEA’S ILLEGAL ANNEXATION*_​_Ukraine’s Maidan Revolution ended in late February 2014, when President Victor Yanukovych fled Kyiv — later to turn up in Russia — and the Rada (Ukraine’s parliament) appointed an acting president and acting prime minister to take charge. They made clear their intention to draw Ukraine closer to Europe by signing an association agreement with the European Union._​​_Almost immediately thereafter, armed men began occupying key facilities and checkpoints on the Crimean peninsula. Clearly professional soldiers by the way they handled themselves and their weapons, they wore Russian combat fatigues but with no identifying insignia. Ukrainians called them “little green men.” President Vladimir Putin at first flatly denied these were Russian soldiers, only to later admit that they were and award commendations to their commanders._​​_The sizeable Ukrainian military presence in Crimea stayed in garrison. If shooting began, Kyiv wanted the world to see the Russians fire first. Ukraine’s Western partners urged Kyiv not to take precipitate action. Since many enlisted personnel in the Ukrainian ranks came from Crimea, Ukrainian commanders probably had less than full confidence in the reliability of their troops._​​_Things moved quickly. By early March, Russian troops had secured the entire peninsula. On March 6, the Crimean Supreme Council voted to ask to accede to Russia. The council scheduled a referendum for March 16, which offered two choices: join Russia or return to Crimea’s 1992 constitution, which gave the peninsula significant autonomy. Those who favored Crimea remaining part of Ukraine under the current constitution had no box to check._​​_The conduct of the referendum proved chaotic and took place absent any credible international observers. Local authorities reported a turnout of 83 percent, with 96.7 percent voting to join Russia. The numbers seemed implausible, given that ethnic Ukrainians and Crimean Tatars accounted for almost 40 percent of the peninsula’s population. (Two months later, a leaked report from the Russian president’s Human Rights Council put turnout at only 30 percent, with about half of those voting to join Russia.)_​​_On March 18, Crimean and Russian officials signed the Treaty of Accession of the Republic of Crimea to Russia. Putin ratified the treaty three days later._​​_*RUSSIAN CLAIMS*_​_Moscow maintains a historical claim to Crimea. The Russians colonized Crimea during the reign of Catherine the Great, and they founded Sevastopol — the peninsula’s main port and largest city — to be the homeport for the Russian Black Sea Fleet. Following the establishment of the Soviet Union, Crimea was a part of the Russian Soviet Federative Socialist Republic until 1954, when it was transferred administratively to the Ukrainian Soviet Socialist Republic._​​_It is also true that Crimea in 2014 had an ethnic Russian majority of about 60 percent — the only part of Ukraine where ethnic Russians constituted the majority. But it is equally true that, when the Soviet Union collapsed in December 1991, the resulting independent states recognized one another in their then-existing borders. Russia’s seizure of Crimea from Ukraine violated, among other agreements, the UN Charter, the 1975 Helsinki Final Act, the 1994 Budapest Memorandum of Security Assurances for Ukraine and the 1997 Treaty on Friendship, Cooperation and Partnership between Ukraine and Russia._​​_Moscow expressed concern about the fate of ethnic Russians in Crimea, but no evidence showed any threat to them. The Russian government justified the referendum and annexation as an act of self-determination, though it appears that well less than half of the Crimean population actually voted to join Russia. In any case, the Kremlin applies the principle of self-determination selectively; Moscow responded to the desire of Chechens for independence from Russia after the Soviet collapse with two bloody conflicts._​​_It appears that domestic politics provided one motive behind Putin’s decision to seize Crimea. He returned to the presidency in 2012 with an economic situation much weaker than during his first two terms as president (2000-2008). Instead of being able to cite economic growth and rising living standards, he based much of his reelection appeal on Russian nationalism. Seizing Crimea in a quick and relatively bloodless operation proved very popular with the Russian public. Putin’s approval rating climbed accordingly._​​_*CRIMEA TODAY AND LOOKING FORWARD*_​_Crimea has undergone significant changes over the past six years. A large number of ethnic Ukrainians and Crimean Tatars — some put the total at 140,000 — have left the peninsula since 2014. Crimean Tatars complain of intimidation and oppression as one reason for moving. During the same period, some 250,000 people have moved from Russia to Crimea (Crimean Tatar leaders claim the influx is much larger). The inflow has included troops and sailors, as the Kremlin has bolstered the Russian military presence on the peninsula, deploying new submarines, surface combatants and combat aircraft among other things._​​_The economic picture is mixed. Trying to create a success story, Moscow has poured in more than $10 billion in direct subsidies as well as funding major construction and infrastructure projects, such as the highway and railroad bridges that now cross the Kerch Strait to link Crimea directly to Russia. On the other hand, small business has suffered, particularly with the decline in tourism, which once accounted for about one quarter of Crimea’s economy. Crimea also remains subject to a variety of Western economic and other sanctions. It is probably fair to say that the reality of the economic situation today falls short of what many in Crimea expected, or hoped for, with Russia’s annexation._​​_The ongoing Russian-Ukrainian conflict in Donbas has pushed Crimea to the back pages, with Kyiv understandably focusing on trying to end that fighting, which claims the lives of Ukrainian soldiers on almost a weekly basis. Still, while Donbas has meant far more dead than Crimea, Crimea’s seizure arguably has done as much, if not more, damage to the European security order. A key premise of the 1975 Helsinki Final Act and subsequent documents was that state borders should be inviolable and not changed by force; Russia’s actions in 2014 shredded that principle. That has caused unease among Russia’s other neighbors._​​_The Ukrainian government maintains that it will get Crimea back. Analytically, it is difficult to see how Kyiv can muster the political, diplomatic, economic and military leverage needed to do so. Perhaps the one possibility would be if Ukraine were to achieve dramatic success in growing its economy, both in absolute terms and relative to the Russian economy, to the point where Crimeans calculated that their living standards would be better off as part of Ukraine. Moscow would likely fiercely resist that — just ask the Chechens — and, in any case, Ukraine’s economy has a long way to go._​​_Even if Crimea’s return appears implausible in the near term, the United States and Europe should continue to support Kyiv’s position, maintain Crimea-related sanctions on Russia, and hold to the policy of non-recognition of Crimea’s annexation. Moscow should pay some price for its use of military force to seize the peninsula. That’s the right thing to do for Ukraine, for the European security order, and for dissuading the Kremlin from trying land grabs elsewhere._​​_The West also should remember the case of the Baltic states. For five decades, the United States and other European countries refused to recognize their incorporation into the Soviet Union. For most of that time, the Baltics regaining independence seemed implausible…until it happened._​


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## moXJO (7 March 2022)

againsthegrain said:


> these days it doesn't take much to be a neo nazi at all, have a different opinion to the left, show some patriotism and your public enemy no1



In 90% of cases I would agree. However when your flag sports three Nazi symbols on its insignia: a modified Wolf's Hook, a black sun (or "Hakensonne") and the title Black Corps, which was used by the Waffen SS. Not to mention swastika tattoos, iron Cross. And you influence/train hard right around the world allegedly including the nz mosque shooter. Your leaders were hard-line right. There's probably to much to mention here but we also had instances of groups in Australia training. 

Well might be safe to use the term.

I don't want this to detract from the overall thread. Just that the right is becoming hard-line through Europe. And this was originally to counter "it was all Russian spin".

Look for articles pre 2016. Anything written now is tainted much more then it was then.


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## JohnDe (7 March 2022)

moXJO said:


> In 90% of cases I would agree. However when your flag sports three Nazi symbols on its insignia: a modified Wolf's Hook, a black sun (or "Hakensonne") and the title Black Corps, which was used by the Waffen SS. Not to mention swastika tattoos, iron Cross. And you influence/train hard right around the world allegedly including the nz mosque shooter. Your leaders were hard-line right. There's probably to much to mention here but we also had instances of groups in Australia training.
> 
> Well might be safe to use the term.
> 
> ...




Wow, if I understand you right, that's amazing. You're saying that the Ukraine government, that was democratically elected, has all those symbols and paraphernalia.

And so with that analysis it must be concluded that the EU and NATO are of the same ilk.

Meaning that Puntin is the only leader standing up to all those elected nations of Nazi symbols and corruption.

Truly amazing how conspiracies take over rational thought.

For the record, Putin's secret service has poisoned and murdered their 'enemies' across the globe. Putin and his cronies will one day stand in front of a war crimes court and be judged for their actions including the cluster bombing of residential areas of Ukraine.

Nothing can make it right, not even you mentioning other wrongs by other nations.


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## moXJO (7 March 2022)

JohnDe said:


> "_I said the government is "sneaky" and you said that wasn't the case_" You sure did say that, and as well as a few other things. "_something feels very off with this all....This goes a lot deeper than dropping "freedom bombs".... I'm not blind to the fact we have sneaky arse western governments_"
> 
> Where did I say '_that wasn't the case'_
> 
> ...



We need to separate "what the people want" first and foremost.
It was ultimately decided by those in control and influenced from there. I don't want to get into that aspect.  As I obviously would support the freedom of the people. But at this stage they are basically just pawns between superpowers.

The question is why do you blow over the "uprising" *cough* Coup *Cough*. US had their dirty fingers in it. Despite being the ultimate sht bag Viktor Yanukovich was democratically elected.

*Observers from the Organisation for Security and Co-operation in Europe (OSCE) said there were no indications of serious fraud and described the vote as an "impressive display" of democracy. "For everyone in Ukraine this election was a victory," João Soares, president of the OSCE's parliamentary assembly, said.*


Old Viktor went with a Russian financial bailout package and tighter ties to Moscow. Not with the EU. Now just this part of the story could fill pages.
Anyway it was bye bye Viktor. I'm only up to speed on the western version of him which is "corrupt murdering shtbag". 

Now was it the sanitised version of "freedom protesters overthrowing a brutal dictator" 
Or
"Western powers gaining  influence to those with similar objectives on the ground"?

I guess we will know if Ukraine goes to sht similar to the regime change in Libya. US and allies are great at toppling government, not so great at nation building.


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## moXJO (7 March 2022)

JohnDe said:


> Wow, if I understand you right, that's amazing. You're saying that the Ukraine government, that was democratically elected, has all those symbols and paraphernalia.
> 
> And so with that analysis it must be concluded that the EU and NATO are of the same ilk.
> 
> ...



Umm the azov flag
Keep dickbating though. Let's see what you can youtube next.


----------



## noirua (7 March 2022)

__





						Russia-Ukraine: Zelenskyy urges global boycott of Russian products if war continues: LIVE UPDATES
					

Ukraine President Volodymyr Zelenskyy, in an Instagram post Monday, is calling for "new sanction steps against the war, for the sake of peace" if Russia continues its ongoing military action in Ukraine.




					www.foxnews.com


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## moXJO (7 March 2022)

againsthegrain said:


> these days it doesn't take much to be a neo nazi at all, have a different opinion to the left, show some patriotism and your public enemy no1



Hey you send your kids to die for some bull**** war. **** your patriotism for foreign nationals. And **** using war as a solution.


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## againsthegrain (7 March 2022)

moXJO said:


> Hey you send your kids to die for some bull**** war. **** your patriotism for foreign nationals. And **** using war as a solution.




Its some bs and foreign war until it comes and knocks on your door and its too late, every coin has two sides


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## over9k (7 March 2022)

Chris Macintosh's latest thoughts: 

Russia is way more critical to the world economy than it was some 20 years ago.




Some 20 years ago Europe (and the “West”) had the North Sea, which produced as much as Russia and the US. Today, the North Sea is a shadow of its former self. And if US shale continues to disappoint, it won't be long before Russia becomes the world's biggest oil producer "beyond reasonable doubt".




Do you think that Rosneft, Lukoil, or Gazprom are in trouble of being sanctioned when they supply some 36% of Europe's oil needs?




And natural gas (not that this is unappreciated).




Furthermore, there are probably a couple of commodities that few have given any thought to, coal in particular.

Russia exports almost as much thermal coal as Australia (granted the chart below is a few years old but volumes wouldn’t have changed materially in that time). Russia also exports about as much coking coal as the US and about 40% of Australia.




Hmmm... switch off Russian natural gas (for a theoretical exercise), and the world will need a stink load more of coal of which Russia is one of the top 5 global suppliers. Guess you could always turn to uranium?




Granted Kazakhstan isn't Russia, but they are rather friendly. Of course, uranium produced (yellow cake) isn't the stuff that goes into nuclear reactors. That is enriched uranium, which Russia (Rosatom) accounts for 50% of world enriched uranium production. That is absolutely extraordinary. Roughly 20% of the US electricity supply comes from nuclear. You know who's really screwed?




Our French mates run the place on nuclear, and guess what? Over half of this enriched uranium comes from the Russkies.

And who accounts for a fair whack of grain exports?




And without fertilizer crops don't grow. Here are the world's top fertilizer exporters (as of 2020 and the value of exports in US dollars).




Should the rest of the world be sanctioning Russia's commodity exports, we'd likely see Weimar Republic style inflation in those countries, particularly Europe.

You might say, _"Surely, there must be other countries Western governments can turn to."_

Here is a neat little picture to make this easy from a geopolitical perspective. The options available to the West from "friendly" states.




One word: yikes!

Can you see now why the calls for sanctions of all Russian exports are not only naive, but also self-destructive?


----------



## moXJO (7 March 2022)

againsthegrain said:


> Its some bs and foreign war until it comes and knocks on your door and its too late, every coin has two sides



I was a little  harsh
But the idiots are baying in the media to cross red lines. It's not worth the destruction it would bring. There's other options at this stage.


----------



## greggles (7 March 2022)

over9k said:


> Can you see now why the calls for sanctions of all Russian exports are not only naive, but also self-destructive?




Through complacency and a lack of foresight, the west has created a massive hole that we now cannot easily dig ourselves out of. We have done exactly the same with China and we have done it because of our love of cheap consumer products.

Europe took Russia's oil and gas (and everything else they rely on) for granted, thinking good ol' Vlad wouldn't do anything _really_ bad. Putin bided his time and then struck when he thought Europe was at peak dependency.

When we should have been going out of our way to find and nurture more friendly (and democratic) sources of cheap labour and energy, we just took the easy option and look where it has gotten us.  Russia and China's economic power has been paid for by the western world for more than 20 years, and we have gleefully funded both their war machines.

Putin and Xi know the weaknesses of western democracies, most critically the fact that our inept leaders only think one election cycle at a time and have no long term vision for anything.

Time for the western world to change course and start to isolate rogue authoritarian regimes around the world. Either that or get busy writing our own death warrants.


----------



## sptrawler (7 March 2022)

greggles said:


> Through complacency and a lack of foresight, the west has created a massive hole that we now cannot easily dig ourselves out of. We have done exactly the same with China and we have done it because of our love of cheap consumer products.
> 
> Europe took Russia's oil and gas (and everything else they rely on) for granted, thinking good ol' Vlad wouldn't do anything _really_ bad. Putin bided his time and then struck when he thought Europe was at peak dependency.
> 
> ...



The good thing is, we are going green and we did lift them out of poverty, we can hold our head up high. Well until we get shot at. 😂


----------



## waterbottle (7 March 2022)

@moXJO, largely in agreement with what you've said.
Not sure why there's such opposition to the idea that the media we're consuming is just as biased as the media that Russians are consuming... And that perhaps we don't have the entire story?

The best solution at this point (for the world) is to allow Russia to topple the Ukrainian government with as little humanitarian impact as possible. 

Best case scenario it remains a neutral state and we restore ties with Russia.

The West is fooling itself if it thinks Russia is in pain or Putin gives a sh*t. Oil has sky-rocketed by 30% in 2 weeks and the US hasn't even turned off their imports!!!

We are staring down the barrel of hyperinflation with no remedy (green tech is not ready yet and the people don't want nuclear)


----------



## Value Collector (7 March 2022)

You have to love the Javelins, 280 tank kills from 300 fired, for those not familiar with the Javelin, watch the 40 second video of one being tested against a tank.










						300 Shots Fired, 280 Russian Tanks Gone: US Missiles In Ukrainian Hands
					

Javelin missile: The Ukrainian military fighting the much larger Russian invasion force has been able to kill hundreds of Russian tanks and armoured vehicles using a hand-held anti-tank missile supplied by the US, according to a US journalist.




					www.ndtv.com


----------



## sptrawler (7 March 2022)

If that is true @Value Collector , why would anyone build tanks? It kind of indicates the Russians just want to commit suicide, I mean really 280 tanks, for 300 missile shots. 
Amazing if true.


----------



## basilio (7 March 2022)

Always an obvious outcome .  Ukraine is a critical supplier of world  grain supplies.









						How Russia's invasion of Ukraine could make bread and noodles more expensive
					

Ukranian farmers are among the hundreds of thousands fleeing war or fighting to defend their country. There are fears a prolonged war could disrupt global supply chains of popular products like wheat.




					www.abc.net.au


----------



## basilio (7 March 2022)

sptrawler said:


> If that is true @Value Collector , why would anyone build tanks? It kind of indicates the Russians just want to commit suicide, I mean really 280 tanks, for 300 missile shots.
> Amazing if true.



 If you check the story there might be some exaggeration.
Nonetheless it is very effective and would certainly be slowing Russian tanks down.


----------



## JohnDe (7 March 2022)

sptrawler said:


> If that is true @Value Collector , why would anyone build tanks? It kind of indicates the Russians just want to commit suicide, I mean really 280 tanks, for 300 missile shots.
> Amazing if true.




That demonstration was on a stationary tank with no defence system, guys shooting had no pressure from an enemy on the hunt for them.

It’s definitely a good offensive weapon but it’s not going to cause the total destruction of a well commanded army regiment with tanks. Though it will make inexperienced soldiers panic & run leaving empty tanks. Which  did happened in the first week.


----------



## basilio (7 March 2022)

Yep Russia is a major supplier of many resources.

Yes slowing or stopping this trade will cause problems.
So what do you think happened in 1914 or 1940 ?  That somehow it didn't matter that world trade patterns were basically stuffed ?

This is a serious situation.  If the West decides it wants to continue sanctioning Russia until the situation in the Ukraine is resolved acceptably then governments will need to tackle these problems.

It's called going to a war economy.  The obvious steps  are

1) Minimise non essential use of  resources that may be in short supply
2) Scour the country and friendly partners for alternative supplies
3) Where necessary fast track new processes to replace some of these resources.  
4) Prioritize use of scare resources.
5) Institute price control measures to prevent gouging and hoarding.

One absolute certainty.  There is no way a  free market economy is going to resolve these issues. It needs strong government direction. 

Russia is probably in a far more difficult situation than us. But I bet a determined central economy will make a better fist of these challenges than a hands off approach.


----------



## JohnDe (7 March 2022)




----------



## over9k (7 March 2022)

waterbottle said:


> @moXJO, largely in agreement with what you've said.
> Not sure why there's such opposition to the idea that the media we're consuming is just as biased as the media that Russians are consuming... And that perhaps we don't have the entire story?
> 
> The best solution at this point (for the world) is to allow Russia to topple the Ukrainian government with as little humanitarian impact as possible.
> ...



Stagflation. We're headed for stagflation. 

Just wait until the other eastern european states and taiwan get invaded


----------



## Knobby22 (7 March 2022)

The protesters in Russia won't succeed. Look at what happened in Hong Kong for instance. Putin will just crack down harder, he has already banned most sites on the internet and will go further. 

Protesters will be arrested and some will be killed. The state has more power than when the French revolution occurred 

Russians think they aren't free now, they will know what a jackboot to the face will feel like soon (as will the Ukranians).


----------



## againsthegrain (7 March 2022)

Value Collector said:


> You have to love the Javelins, 280 tank kills from 300 fired, for those not familiar with the Javelin, watch the 40 second video of one being tested against a tank.
> 
> 
> 
> ...





The Javelins go magic along with the Bayraktar drones they got from the Turks.  Drone bogs down a convoy of trucks and tanks by taking out the front and back then some guys with Javelins jump out covered by snipers to take out the stationary tanks stuck behind what the Bayraktar cooked up


----------



## Value Collector (7 March 2022)

sptrawler said:


> If that is true @Value Collector , why would anyone build tanks? It kind of indicates the Russians just want to commit suicide, I mean really 280 tanks, for 300 missile shots.
> Amazing if true.



The Javelin is a powerful weapon, it’s expensive though, but both Germany and the Netherlands have sent to Ukraine.

Tanks are Niche weapons that are powerful in some circumstances if used correctly and are supported by infantry to protect them,  but they can be sitting ducks and are vulnerable to modern weapons like the Javelin.

You might see some Russian tanks rolling round with these weird cages on top, those cages are designed to try and defeat weapons like the Javelin, because the Javelin works by having two explosive charges, eg one to penetrate the tank, and a second to push inside and explode on the inside of the tank, by having the cage it causes the javelin to explode it’s first charge a few feet away from the tank which messes it up, it does have a direct fire setting where it attacks from the side, but tank armour is stronger on the side.


----------



## Value Collector (7 March 2022)

JohnDe said:


> That demonstration was on a stationary tank with no defence system, guys shooting had no pressure from an enemy on the hunt for them.
> 
> It’s definitely a good offensive weapon but it’s not going to cause the total destruction of a well commanded army regiment with tanks. Though it will make inexperienced soldiers panic & run leaving empty tanks. Which  did happened in the first week.



It’s a guided missile, the tank can be moving and it will still hit its target.

It’s also a “shoot and scoot” weapon, meaning once you fire it, you can run away, you don’t have to hold a laser or anything on the target.

As I mentions above there are defences such as the cages, and reactive armour, but even with these if a tank is hit it’s still likely to have either a weapons kill or a mobility kill.

When attacking a tank, there are three levels of “Kill” you can inflict

1, mobility kill (tank is immobilised eg lost a track, but weapons still function)

2, weapons kill (tank is mobile, but it’s weapons systems are damaged or destroyed so it can’t really fight)

3, catastrophic Kill (both mobility and weapons or crew is destroyed)

A Javelin is highly likely to inflict a Catastrophic Kill, but if not will still probably achieve either a mobility or weapons kill.


----------



## moXJO (7 March 2022)

Value Collector said:


> It’s a guided missile, the tank can be moving and it will still hit its target.
> 
> It’s also a “shoot and scoot” weapon, meaning once you fire it, you can run away, you don’t have to hold a laser or anything on the target.
> 
> ...



All the above is correct. Missile technology is reaching the stage where tanks are in danger of becoming obsolete.  There are other systems that will punch through side armour.


----------



## Value Collector (7 March 2022)

moXJO said:


> All the above is correct. Missile technology is reaching the stage where tanks are in danger of becoming obsolete.  There are other systems that will punch through side armour.




The Ukrainians have already been calling saint Javelin hahaha.


----------



## waterbottle (7 March 2022)

Here it is, the East v. West divide


----------



## JohnDe (7 March 2022)

moXJO said:


> Umm the azov flag
> Keep dickbating though. Let's see what you can youtube next.



 Here you go -


----------



## waterbottle (8 March 2022)

The demands:


----------



## moXJO (8 March 2022)

JohnDe said:


> Here you go -




War Crimes, more reasons for US to enter and make a bigger mess. Is this verified? probably by pro west media....

I don't support Russia by the way. I just don't like the disinformation out there. NATO and US have basically armed a lot of countries around Russia that were formally ussr. Ukraine was probably the last straw. 

Putins guise of entering under "neo nazi removal service" is of course bs. But I suspect you believe what I wrote above is to support it. No, it was to point out it was an actual thing in Ukraine. Russia itself has its own neo nazi battalion. The 'Sparta battalion'. The fact Russia of all places has a strong neo nazi presence blows the mind. But as I said Europe is facing a strong far right problem.

In any case, there was a supposed cease fire to let refugees out. I thought the Russians called it.
I wouldn't put anything past putin though. But looking at the narrative so far, US wants in. Or a reason to punch down more.

This isn't a war the world jumps into. It's one you grind out from the sidelines till hopefully the cost is to high for Russia to continue. 
Russia could end the world as we know it if hot heads make a move.


----------



## moXJO (8 March 2022)

waterbottle said:


> The demands:




Won't happen. Yet anyway.


----------



## Value Collector (8 March 2022)

waterbottle said:


> Here it is, the East v. West divide




If the nukes do start flying and you happen to be outside the blast area and you don’t have a basement, you can construct an improvised fall out shelter to Shield yourself from the high levels of radiation that will be present in the days after the blast.

Seal all the windows of your home and build your shelter in the centre of the home, radioactive dust will be settling on the roof of your home and the ground outside and it will be most radio active in the hours and days right after the blast.

remember the three factors.

Time- limit the time you are exposed

Distance- keep the maximum distance away (centre of home)

shielding- maximise the amount of stuff between you and the radioactive source (dust outside)


----------



## Garpal Gumnut (8 March 2022)

gg


----------



## Smurf1976 (8 March 2022)

One thing I wonder about is financial impacts due to the sheer speed and scale of commodity price movements?

That is, is anyone on the wrong side of a trade losing serious $ billions?

Pure speculation on my part but it's at least possible.


----------



## waterbottle (8 March 2022)

Smurf1976 said:


> One thing I wonder about is financial impacts due to the sheer speed and scale of commodity price movements?
> 
> That is, is anyone on the wrong side of a trade losing serious $ billions?
> 
> Pure speculation on my part but it's at least possible.




Absolutely. US Aarlines are getting smashed, approaching COVID 2020 prices. NASDAQ now at new lows.
Keep in mind the Moex hasn't even opened up yet so foreign asset owners haven't even managed to mark-to-market!!!!!


----------



## basilio (8 March 2022)

What steps would Russia take to occupy Kyiv ?  Excellent analysis from an Australian  military strategist.  
Just horrific.









						At some point during Russia's assault on Kyiv, Ukraine's President will have to make two critical decisions
					

The Russians appear to have their sights set on surrounding and potentially seizing Kyiv if the Ukrainians refuse to surrender. Such an assault would, in short, be dreadful, writes Mick Ryan.




					www.abc.net.au


----------



## Value Collector (8 March 2022)

Smurf1976 said:


> One thing I wonder about is financial impacts due to the sheer speed and scale of commodity price movements?
> 
> That is, is anyone on the wrong side of a trade losing serious $ billions?
> 
> Pure speculation on my part but it's at least possible.



Anyone that has contracts to supply goods or services at a fixed price, and not hedged their input costs may be hurt, and those that were counter parties to the hedging contracts will be hurting.

for example if Qantas has already sold the flights from Sydney to LA for this month based on lower oil prices and they haven’t hedged, their margins will be squeezed.

FMG burn loads of diesel, higher prices of diesel raise costs, but the Iron Ore price has rise also, but yeah there will be many companies having margins squeezed and others having margins inflated.

I can imagine it will create a push to more renewables, Hawaii for example relies on oil for 60% of its electricity, and it relies on planes burning oil, and off course ships and cars, I can imagine the Hawaiian utilities will be spurred on a bit harder to push for more renewables.


----------



## basilio (8 March 2022)

Can certainly see local, decentralised  renewable energy being fast forwarded.  The economics have been right for a few years now. The politics of self sufficiency  vs external dependency is now sharply in focus.

I can see an investment led economy dominating for a fair time as distinct from a consumer led economy.


----------



## Dona Ferentes (8 March 2022)

_Ukraine is home to *seven* UN World Heritage sites, including the Saint Sophia Cathedral in Kyiv_.

The Kyiv: Saint-Sophia Cathedral and Related Monastic Buildings, Kyiv-Pechersk Lavra represent two outstanding complexes of cultural heritage monuments from the Middle Ages and Early Modern period (Kyivan Rus’ and Hetmanate Periods).

The property consists of two separate components: Saint-Sophia Cathedral and its related monastic buildings and the monastic complex of Kyiv-Pechersk Lavra with the Church of the Saviour at Berestovo.


----------



## basilio (8 March 2022)

Financial collapses will be far more likely. As Smurf pointed out there will be serious losses in speculative trades across many commodities.

I struggle to see how  many companies  will hold value as the implications of  shortages and war type economies come into play. Somewhere I remember reading that  derivative investments are in their trillions at the moment.  Don't want to think about the implications of these coming unwound.

We know that food and energy prices are rising sharply.  The impact on some countries could be catastrophic. May well be a lot of international debt going under water. International instability could also rise.  Remember the  Arab Spring rebellion ?  Rising food prices was a big part of that movement.

Also wonder how insurance companies are going to cope under the pressures of word wide climate change events and economic turmoil from war.









						Arab Spring - Wikipedia
					






					en.wikipedia.org


----------



## waterbottle (8 March 2022)

Might be interpreted as abandoning Ukraine (I'm sure Zelensky will tweet this) but it will avoid an escalation and prolongation of a war no one wants...


----------



## Smurf1976 (8 March 2022)

basilio said:


> Somewhere I remember reading that derivative investments are in their trillions at the moment. Don't want to think about the implications of these coming unwound.



That was my underlying thought - the risk of blowing up speculative funds and so on.

I'm thinking that there's at least some chance the modelling they're based on didn't allow for the sort of price movements that have occurred.


----------



## over9k (8 March 2022)

Smurf1976 said:


> That was my underlying thought - the risk of blowing up speculative funds and so on.
> 
> I'm thinking that there's at least some chance the modelling they're based on didn't allow for the sort of price movements that have occurred.



One of the guys from long term capital management was just on bloomberg, swaps are pricing in an 80% probability of default from the russian government. 

But maths doesn't model in things like wars et al, hence why LTCM went bust in the asian crisis of the 90's.


----------



## JohnDe (8 March 2022)

How far will Putin go? He has no reason to pull back, sanctions will hurt Russia but world financial fear will hurt western markets and possibly be the final straw to recession/depression.

Sadly it is looking that the only way for NATO to stay out of this war is to negotiate with a mad man and to split the Ukraine in half. Saving the world from financial ruin and Europe from war and possible nuclear strikes


----------



## noirua (8 March 2022)

People look at the gutted remains of Russian military vehicles on a road in the town of Bucha, close to the capital Kyiv, Ukraine on March 1. Russian forces have struggled to make progress in Ukraine amid heavy fighting and fierce resistance.  (AP Photo/Serhii Nuzhnenko)








						Russian failures in Ukraine leave ‘no option for a possible victory,’ alleged FSB whistleblower says
					

Russia's invasion of Ukraine has resulted in unforeseen obstacles and challenges that make victory a near impossibility as casualties continue to mount amid crippling sanctions, according to a letter purportedly authored by a Russian intelligence analyst in one of Moscow's security agencies.




					www.foxnews.com


----------



## over9k (8 March 2022)




----------



## bluekelah (9 March 2022)

noirua said:


> View attachment 138796
> 
> People look at the gutted remains of Russian military vehicles on a road in the town of Bucha, close to the capital Kyiv, Ukraine on March 1. Russian forces have struggled to make progress in Ukraine amid heavy fighting and fierce resistance.  (AP Photo/Serhii Nuzhnenko)
> 
> ...



LOL those are gutted remains of Ukrainian tanks. Russian tanks have that very obvious Z on them and are not old and rusty


----------



## bluekelah (9 March 2022)

over9k said:


> View attachment 138802
> View attachment 138803



damn.. that looks like a crypto chart lol...


----------



## JohnDe (9 March 2022)

Exactly -


----------



## waterbottle (9 March 2022)

Big declines in wheat, gas and coal futures. Slight decline for oil. NDX up. Zelensky going 'cold' on NATO. Is the war over?









						Ukraine's Zelensky says he has 'cooled' on joining NATO
					

Volodymyr Zelensky's comments about NATO and the future status of the separatist regions are possible openings for peace talks with Russia.



					www.businessinsider.com


----------



## JohnDe (9 March 2022)

waterbottle said:


> Big declines in wheat, gas and coal futures. Slight decline for oil. NDX up. Zelensky going 'cold' on NATO. Is the war over?




No


----------



## Value Collector (9 March 2022)

bluekelah said:


> LOL those are gutted remains of Ukrainian tanks. Russian tanks have that very obvious Z on them and are not old and rusty



They aren’t rusty, they are burnt, paint burns of pretty easy with the high temperature of fuel and explosives burning they then begin rusting right awayalso true Z you are talking about is also just a temporary paint job that would have burned off.

Saying that those vehicles that are burned out aren’t tanks, they are Armoured personal carriers, and there may be some infantry fighting vehicles in there.

Google “why does steel rust after fire” and you will find plenty of scientific explanations


----------



## moXJO (9 March 2022)

Lecture from 6 years ago. On the whys and possible outcomes. Also the thinking behind it. He surprisingly got a lot of it right. Takes a very neutral stance overall. Some interesting points all the way through.

Lays out the basics of why this thing started.


----------



## JohnDe (9 March 2022)




----------



## JohnDe (10 March 2022)

moXJO said:


> Lecture from 6 years ago. On the whys and possible outcomes. Also the thinking behind it. He surprisingly got a lot of it right. Takes a very neutral stance overall. Some interesting points all the way through.
> 
> Lays out the basics of why this thing started.





Some interesting view points there, like the one that "_Russia didn't conquer or invade the Crimea, they were already there because they had a leasing agreement with a naval base_".

Another interesting point is that of 2013/14; the Ukraine citizens want to be part of the EU but to be part of the EU, Ukraine must clean up its act in regards to internal corruption. Powerful people in the Ukraine do not want this and Russia through Putin does not want Ukraine to be part of the EU. Putin makes a very sweet deal to the Ukraine President to stay our of the EU and get closer to Russia. This infuriates the people of Ukraine, the majority want to be in the EU, they want an end to corruption. Massive protests start.

Your video shows the Ukraine as a divided country, this is no longer the case.

Putin has united the peoples of the Ukraine, by being the peoples common enemy. He has also managed to unite the majority of countries in the UN, all against Russia's invasion of the Ukraine.


----------



## JohnDe (10 March 2022)

*Horror and outrage after Russian rocket attack destroys maternity hospital In Mauripol*
_
Russia sparked an outpouring of outrage when their rockets destroyed a maternity hospital in Mariupol, according to the Ukrainian authorities.
President Volodomyr Zelensky spoke of the horror of the attack as he said children were hidden underneath the wreckage after the “direct strike by Russian troops”.

Prime Minister Boris Johnson led the condemnation of the attack on social media, his words echoed by the Foreign Secretary Liz Truss._









						Search for survivors after Russia shells Mariupol maternity hospital
					

President Volodymyr Zelensky said the attack was ‘final proof... that the genocide of Ukrainians is taking place’




					www.standard.co.uk


----------



## waterbottle (10 March 2022)

Now 2 weeks into this and this is looking like death by a thousand cuts for Ukraine. Russia has gained more territory, completed a land bridge to Crimea, and has started to escalate their offensive. Meanwhile, Zelensky is tossing up the idea of ditching NATO altogether.

On the economic front, Ruble has started trading again. The Central Bank of Russia has kept the Moex closed, probably indefinitely for now.

Now this:








						Russia will nationalize assets of foreign firms that leave – ruling party
					

Russia's ruling party, United Russia, said on Wednesday that a government commission had approved the first step towards nationalizing assets of foreign firms that leave the country in the




					newsinfo.inquirer.net


----------



## waterbottle (10 March 2022)

Would be interesting to see what the result is after another 2 weeks of war...


----------



## moXJO (10 March 2022)

JohnDe said:


> Some interesting view points there, like the one that "_Russia didn't conquer or invade the Crimea, they were already there because they had a leasing agreement with a naval base_".
> 
> Another interesting point is that of 2013/14; the Ukraine citizens want to be part of the EU but to be part of the EU, Ukraine must clean up its act in regards to internal corruption. Powerful people in the Ukraine do not want this and Russia through Putin does not want Ukraine to be part of the EU. Putin makes a very sweet deal to the Ukraine President to stay our of the EU and get closer to Russia. This infuriates the people of Ukraine, the majority want to be in the EU, they want an end to corruption. Massive protests start.
> 
> ...



I think he was correct when saying "Russia won't accept NATO on its doorstep anymore than the Russian missiles in Cuba".
Nor would Australia accept Chinese military bases in Fiji etc.

The other interesting view was the 19th century thinking vs 21st century and the difference between Washington and Moscow.

I cannot see a way in which Russia becomes less dangerous once they get 'outspent' out of this war. His other comment of "Russia will just destroy and level Ukraine" seems to be playing out. If you are going to lose, this seems like the option that buys the most time.


----------



## noirua (10 March 2022)

China’s support of Russia's Ukraine invasion has a breaking point: expert
					

China's support of Russia has an expiration point, according to expert James Carafano




					www.foxnews.com
				



China unsure if Russia will remain long-term partner or a ’burden’: James Carafano​


----------



## waterbottle (10 March 2022)

Turkey brokering a peace, or maybe they want to keep trade going with Russia?









						'No progress for cease-fire' in Ukraine, Russia FM talks in Turkey
					

The much-anticipated trilateral meeting between the foreign ministers of Russia, Ukraine and Turkey has concluded in Turkey's resort town of Antalya....




					www.dailysabah.com
				












						Trade can be conducted in ruble, yuan, gold: Erdoğan tells Putin
					

Conducting trade in national currencies was among the topics discussed during President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan’s phone call with his Russian counterpart...




					www.dailysabah.com
				






> Sources say Erdoğan told Putin that, apart from the euro and dollar, trade between the two countries can be carried out using the Russian ruble and Chinese yuan.
> 
> 
> “We can do it with gold,” he was quoted as suggesting.
> ...


----------



## Garpal Gumnut (10 March 2022)

This is not an excuse for Putin's fascist invasion, however NATO is complicit in the lead up to tensions. 









						It’s not ‘Putin apologism’ to criticise NATO
					

The debate over the war in Ukraine is becoming dangerously narrow.




					www.spiked-online.com
				




gg


----------



## noirua (11 March 2022)

After Ukraine, Europe wonders who's next Russian target
					

The most vulnerable nations are likely to be those which aren't members of NATO or the European Union, and thus alone and unprotected, Western officials say




					www.aol.co.uk


----------



## waterbottle (11 March 2022)

Not really liking the rhetoric coming out of the UK...


----------



## Value Collector (11 March 2022)

Drone footage of Ukrainians attacking Tanks and other armoured vehicles, I don’t know if it’s Javelins being used but it might be, they have a maximum effective range of 4.5 km, so you can attack concentrated forces like this from a safe distance.





__





						Drone footage shows Ukrainian ambush on Russian tanks | Ukraine | The Guardian
					

Armoured vehicles in built-up area about 22 miles from central Kyiv come under repeated attack




					amp.theguardian.com


----------



## JohnDe (11 March 2022)

Value Collector said:


> Drone footage of Ukrainians attacking Tanks and other armoured vehicles, I don’t know if it’s Javelins being used but it might be, they have a maximum effective range of 4.5 km, so you can attack concentrated forces like this from a safe distance.
> 
> 
> 
> ...




_Ben Barry, a former tank commander with the British army and a land warfare specialist with the International Institute for Strategic Studies, a thinktank, said: “They either think they are going through a safe area, or they were not well trained or they are moving fast for some other requirement.”_​​_Tanks moving through a built-up area should normally use close infantry support to prevent ambushes from the side of the road, Barry said. *Having watched the footage, he said he thought the Russian armour was probably targeted with artillery or mortar fire because the nature of the blasts.*_​​_On the audio, the Russian apparently reporting the ambush speculates that they may been targeted by Turkish Bayraktar drones, but parts of the video show poor conditions and low cloud cover not considered ideal for drone attacks._​


----------



## Value Collector (11 March 2022)

JohnDe said:


> _Ben Barry, a former tank commander with the British army and a land warfare specialist with the International Institute for Strategic Studies, a thinktank, said: “They either think they are going through a safe area, or they were not well trained or they are moving fast for some other requirement.”_​​_Tanks moving through a built-up area should normally use close infantry support to prevent ambushes from the side of the road, Barry said. *Having watched the footage, he said he thought the Russian armour was probably targeted with artillery or mortar fire because the nature of the blasts.*_​​_On the audio, the Russian apparently reporting the ambush speculates that they may been targeted by Turkish Bayraktar drones, but parts of the video show poor conditions and low cloud cover not considered ideal for drone attacks._​



It could be, but it seems to accurate for mortar rounds.


----------



## bluekelah (12 March 2022)

noirua said:


> After Ukraine, Europe wonders who's next Russian target
> 
> 
> The most vulnerable nations are likely to be those which aren't members of NATO or the European Union, and thus alone and unprotected, Western officials say
> ...



Next up will be Romania and Poland. Thats where the Aegis Ashore Nuke capable launch sites are located in Europe.


----------



## JohnDe (12 March 2022)

bluekelah said:


> Next up will be Romania and Poland. Thats where the Aegis Ashore Nuke capable launch sites are located in Europe.



Putin only wants the Ukraine, and China will not support Russia in any other territory claim.


----------



## moXJO (12 March 2022)

JohnDe said:


> Putin only wants the Ukraine, and China will not support Russia in any other territory claim.



Agree.
 Don't think Russia would be able to support anything further from here anyway. It's likely the Ukrainians will grind them out over the next few weeks that will tax his forces.

Putin currently has air superiority and is still taking heavy losses. Imagine ground troops and air-force going up against the western world.  He wouldn't risk nuclear destruction (or those around him wouldn't) either.

He can just (barely) justify Ukraine to the Russian people. Anything further will see him ousted. Imo he wants a resolution as quick as possible. Russians are losing badly at the propaganda war and the eyes of the world are watching.


----------



## IFocus (12 March 2022)

For a Yank George Friedman is interesting.







__





						Global Macro Update - Mauldin Economics
					

John Mauldin, Financial Expert, Best-Selling Author, and Editor of Thoughts from the Frontline Investment Newsletter. Offering Financial & Economic Analysis, Research.




					www.mauldineconomics.com


----------



## wayneL (12 March 2022)

moXJO said:


> Agree.
> Don't think Russia would be able to support anything further from here anyway. It's likely the Ukrainians will grind them out over the next few weeks that will tax his forces.
> 
> Putin currently has air superiority and is still taking heavy losses. Imagine ground troops and air-force going up against the western world.  He wouldn't risk nuclear destruction (or those around him wouldn't) either.
> ...



I think what this misadventure of Putin's might show is that any stored of wide-scale conventional warfare  as in a conventional world war 3, would be absolutely intolerable and likely backfire spectacularly on the new world order (tin foil hats on, chaps).

... And nuclear exchange is just unthinkable, if that happens we'll have probably a few hours to say to each other it's been nice knowing you.


----------



## bluekelah (14 March 2022)

moXJO said:


> Agree.
> Don't think Russia would be able to support anything further from here anyway. It's likely the Ukrainians will grind them out over the next few weeks that will tax his forces.
> 
> Putin currently has air superiority and is still taking heavy losses. Imagine ground troops and air-force going up against the western world.  He wouldn't risk nuclear destruction (or those around him wouldn't) either.
> ...



Dont be fooled by the mostly one sided media reporting you see everyday on the news.

As far as I know, Russia has over a million military personnel. They only sent an estimated 100k+ worth into Ukraine. They are just taking it slow to limit civilian casualties as well as to capture as much of Ukraine intact as possible. He needs Ukraine to be functioning to use it as an effective buffer to the NATO border countries. When you own the skies, you basically win the war. Putin is taking his own sweet time. I had thought they would try to end things before the spring weather starts thawing out the ground this month, but i guess they can use railway to bring in hardware/tanks now they have the eastern regions secured.

He doesnt need to justify anything, he had already in 2020 managed to get the people to vote for a removal of his 2 term limit( much like what Xi had done in china) so he gets to continue indefinitely as Prez. He is still hugely popular to the majority of Russian.

Whilst economic sanctions have caused some short term economic problems,
1) Russia has the gold to back their currency, unlike USA fiat dollars.
2)Russia can switch from SWIFT to other payment systems like chinese CIPS for bank payments
3) they have already started using chinese UNIONPay for businesses via phone apps/cards (chinas version of visa which now does higher transaction value than visa system).
4) Europe and the world is still buying their oil and gas (albeit at higher prices than before the war!! ROFL..) so the war is making them more money? Especially if you look at the other major stuff they still export like wheat and a whole heap of rare minerals and commodities, their exports may have gone down 50% but all these commodities have gone up 50%, some even 100%. Just look at the nickel prices. Even our coal export prices have shot up 30%!!!

Germany Says It Won't Stop Buying Russian Energy Despite Moscow’s War in Ukraine








						Germany Says It Won't Stop Buying Russian Energy Despite Moscow’s War in Ukraine
					

Germany will continue to buy natural gas, oil and coal from Russia despite Vladimir Putin’s aggression against Ukraine, the government in Berlin said Monday. Germany and Europe are too dependent on Russian energy imports for power, heating and industrial production to be able to cut trade links wit




					www.wsj.com
				




5) Businesses like macdonalds closing but Russia is going to allow their own companies to take over the american patents 

Theres just a few small anti-war rallies last week that have been shutdown quick smart in the usual fashion.

Not many countries are on the side of the americans on this one, and unfortunately USA has its own internal problems with high inflation now almost certainly going into hyperinflation coupled with a recession -- STAGFLATION ala 1970s again. In fact I dont think USA can continue with their sanctions much longer, especially if the democrats wanna stay in power in the upcoming US election.


----------



## moXJO (14 March 2022)

bluekelah said:


> Dont be fooled by the mostly one sided media reporting you see everyday on the news.
> 
> As far as I know, Russia has over a million military personnel. They only sent an estimated 100k+ worth into Ukraine. They are just taking it slow to limit civilian casualties as well as to capture as much of Ukraine intact as possible. He needs Ukraine to be functioning to use it as an effective buffer to the NATO border countries. When you own the skies, you basically win the war. Putin is taking his own sweet time. I had thought they would try to end things before the spring weather starts thawing out the ground this month, but i guess they can use railway to bring in hardware/tanks now they have the eastern regions secured.
> 
> ...




I think this war will be more costly then Russia originally anticipated. I don't think Ukraine is winning. But I do think they are grinding out enough damage to be costly. The Ukrainian propaganda war is also beating the Russians at this stage. It's hard to keep a hostile country. But I think negotiations will eventually take place. 

Missiles are a lot cheaper than tanks and aircraft. Seems like weakening Russia by proxy. Ultimate irony is its basically Russian vs their cousins in  a battle to the death. All the while NATO and US provide the weapons. 

I think it's taking a while as Russia was trying to keep civilian casualties to a minimum. Not sure how that's going at the moment though.

I think Putin is coming to the end of his term if it drags for much longer.


----------



## JohnDe (14 March 2022)

_
_
_Total war: How Ukraine mobilised a country as Russia overreached_​_Despite perceptions of Russia’s military strength, Ukraine has been able to slow the Russian advance. 

The war in Ukraine has highlighted two things to Russia and the outside world: that Russia’s much-vaunted military revolution has been exaggerated

Russian military vehicles quickly ran out of fuel and soldiers ran out of food despite food and fuel stockpiles being nearby on the other side of the border.

Meanwhile, the hundreds of missile attacks and air strikes on Ukrainian bases and command and control centres, carried out on the first day, failed to achieve their aim of destroying Ukrainian military resistance.

Despite having an air force many times the size of Ukraine’s, Russia was unable to dominate the skies in the way necessary to protect the smooth and speedy advance of its mechanised columns of armour on the ground. These units now faced Ukrainian air strikes as they pushed deeper into the country.

This lack of coordination between Russian air and ground units left gaps in the defensive shield around advancing Russian armour, also allowing Ukrainian ground forces to successfully attack Russian armed helicopters, destroying many and depriving Russian army units of their protection and support.

Ukrainian jets were able to fly combat missions, often flying low over towns and cities as a morale boost to the population.
_
_Ukraine’s drones_​_Ukraine has made effective use of its meagre complement of armed UAVs or Unmanned Aerial Vehicles. Its Turkish-made TB2 armed UAVs have been flying combat missions, not only carrying out air strikes on Russian vehicles and command posts but conducting intelligence, surveillance and reconnaissance (ISR) missions.

Russia, on the other hand, has been slow to develop its own armed UAVs and has only just started to deploy them in combat. This lack of ability to determine an opponent’s movements combined with a drone’s offensive capabilities has Russia at a real disadvantage
_
_Morale_​_The tepid advance of Russian forces has been linked to poor leadership, lack of supplies and the low morale of  Russian soldiers.

There has also been a lack of understanding among the rank and file of the Russian military about why they are fighting this war, particularly as Russia and Ukraine have always been culturally linked.

Despite this initial reticence among some of the Russian soldiers to fight their neighbour, Russia has an estimated 150,000 troops in Ukraine, and many of them are highly motivated, well trained and well equipped. And while they may not have known where they were going at the beginning of the conflict, they certainly know now.









						Total war: How Ukraine mobilised a country as Russia overreached
					

Despite perceptions of Russia’s military strength, Ukraine has been able to slow the Russian advance. We examine how.




					www.aljazeera.com
				



_


----------



## bluekelah (14 March 2022)

moXJO said:


> I think this war will be more costly then Russia originally anticipated. I don't think Ukraine is winning. But I do think they are grinding out enough damage to be costly. The Ukrainian propaganda war is also beating the Russians at this stage. It's hard to keep a hostile country. But I think negotiations will eventually take place.
> 
> Missiles are a lot cheaper than tanks and aircraft. Seems like weakening Russia by proxy. Ultimate irony is its basically Russian vs their cousins in  a battle to the death. All the while NATO and US provide the weapons.
> 
> ...



Russia says it could target Western arms supplies to Ukraine​








						Russia says it could target Western arms supplies to Ukraine
					

‘Pumping of weapons from a number of countries … turns these convoys into legitimate targets’, Russian deputy FM says.




					www.aljazeera.com
				




I believe with this statement the arms supply going in from the western side will be targeted before they can be used. Russians have both satellite imagery and planes/attack choppers that can make short work of transports. They will also control the roads leading into Kyiv and other major cities they have surrounded so no idea how additional weapons are gonna make it in.

Syria recruiting troops from its military to fight with Russian forces in Ukraine​and seems like they are matching the 16k volunteers for Ukraine








						Syria recruiting troops from its military to fight with Russian forces in Ukraine
					

Up to 16,000 volunteers to be paid $3,000 a month – a sum up to 50 times a Syrian soldier’s monthly salary




					www.theguardian.com
				




Actually Russia can just turn off the water or power and Kyiv will fall in 7 days or so if they wanted 

As my post in another thread, Putin term is not in any political threat. he already did a referendum approved by popular vote for him to continue beyond the 2 term limit previous presidents had, much like Xi had done in China. The Russian politicians already knew full well they were gonna invade and well prepped. All those sanctioned oligarchs mostly on their yachts sipping champagne whilst they wait for thing to blow through.

And Russia is making more money by the day as oil and gas and commodity prices continue to spike whilst the rest of Europe and the world continue to buy their OIL and GAS and Metals and WHEAT...


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## Knobby22 (14 March 2022)

bluekelah said:


> Russia says it could target Western arms supplies to Ukraine​
> 
> 
> 
> ...



No need to show smilies.
The war isn't going well for Russia despite what Putin says.
Russian soldiers do have low morale as they fight Russian speaking populace including women in the streets.
And you say the Russians could supply 10 times the troops but they havent because they are being nice? Coddswallop.
They are bringing the Syrians in to do the nasty before their own troops revolt.

The ogliarchs are being hit and it will take months before they really feel the full brunt of the wests anger. Russia will become highly reliant on the capricious Chinese who are already taking territory off them in the east.

So many willing and keen to believe Russian propaganda. Quite pathetic


----------



## Telamelo (14 March 2022)

Knobby22 said:


> No need to show smilies.
> The war isn't going well for Russia despite what Putin says.
> Russian soldiers do have low morale as they fight Russian speaking populace including women in the streets.
> And you say the Russians could supply 10 times the troops but they havent because they are being nice? Coddswallop.
> ...



I'm afraid that Putin has "only just started" as we haven't seen anything yet. This is sadly going to spread "far & wide" beyond Ukraine. War only brings devastation, misery & famine - there'll be no winner's.

Inflation will skyrocket as we've already seen with soaring fuel prices and impact on our grocery shopping/cost of living etc. All the everyday bills becoming more expensive.. interest rates going up as well putting more pressure on household budgets. 

Sanctions are on Putin /Russia so am told/assured but we here in Australia will suffer both economically & financially as a result.


----------



## wayneL (14 March 2022)

Knobby22 said:


> So many willing and keen to believe Russian propaganda. Quite pathetic



Yeah! Because only Russians issue propaganda.


----------



## UMike (14 March 2022)

Think it is widely believed both side are propagandaists.

No winner in this **** show. (other than the right business in the right sector).


----------



## CityIndex (14 March 2022)

Telamelo said:


> I'm afraid that Putin has "only just started" as we haven't seen anything yet. This is sadly going to spread "far & wide" beyond Ukraine. War only brings devastation, misery & famine - there'll be no winner's.
> 
> Inflation will skyrocket as we've already seen with soaring fuel prices and impact on our grocery shopping/cost of living etc. All the everyday bills becoming more expensive.. interest rates going up as well putting more pressure on household budgets.
> 
> Sanctions are on Putin /Russia so am told/assured but we here in Australia will suffer both economically & financially as a result.



You could be right. Especially if the reports of Russia turning to China for military aid is to believed, the threat of this escalating to a conflict beyond just Russia and Ukraine is seriously mounting.  

Although the ASX is trading broadly higher at the moment on renewed hopes of a diplomatic solution in Ukraine, there is still significant downside risk to be mindful of. If the situation does in fact ease,  we could see a strong rally across global equity markets in the days that follow. However, the longer this drags on, or worse it gets, the greater the chance for a global recession, which leaves scope for a much larger drop in the market as well. 

All trading carries risk, and it'll be important to watch how this situation develops over the rest of the week.


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## Craton (14 March 2022)

Just read this in the Guardian and am shaking my head at the sheer hypocrisy.



> Russia to ban Instagram over 'calls for violence against Russians'​
> Russia’s state media and communication regulator, *Rozcomnadzor, says Instagram will be banned*, citing the social networking site “calls for violence against Russians” as the reason behind the embargo.
> 
> An email from Rozcomnadzor and shared with the Guardian reads:
> ...


----------



## againsthegrain (14 March 2022)

Craton said:


> Just read this in the Guardian and am shaking my head at the sheer hypocrisy.




Sounds like exactly the rubbish you would hear from china


----------



## Value Collector (14 March 2022)

bluekelah said:


> Dont be fooled by the mostly one sided media reporting you see everyday on the news.
> 
> As far as I know, Russia has over a million military personnel. They only sent an estimated 100k+ worth into Ukraine. They are just taking it slow to limit civilian casualties as well as to capture as much of Ukraine intact as possible. He needs Ukraine to be functioning to use it as an effective buffer to the NATO border countries. When you own the skies, you basically win the war. Putin is taking his own sweet time. I had thought they would try to end things before the spring weather starts thawing out the ground this month, but i guess they can use railway to bring in hardware/tanks now they have the eastern regions secured.
> 
> ...



I am not sure how you can think this invasion is going well for Russia.

Compare it to the USA invasion of Iraq and the Battle of Bagdad.

It took 6 Days for the USA to capture Bagdad, 3 weeks into the invasion.

The USA did it with a force of 30,000 soldiers, The battle of Bagdad losses for the USA was 34 soldiers, 2 planes, 1 helicopter, 2 tanks and 17 other vehicles.

Compare that to the current Russian losses at the moment, not to mention that the USA was fighting across an ocean on the other side of the world, Where as Russia is just across their border and struggling logistically.

It’s true that no one seems to have the ability to deploy anywhere on the globe and maintain a strong logistics supply chain like the USA, the closest other nation would be the Brits, Russia has shown a huge weakness in their abilities in my opinion.


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## JohnDe (14 March 2022)

bluekelah said:


> Dont be fooled by the mostly one sided media reporting you see everyday on the news.
> 
> As far as I know, Russia has over a million military personnel. They only sent an estimated 100k+ worth into Ukraine. They are just taking it slow to limit civilian casualties as well as to capture as much of Ukraine intact as possible. He needs Ukraine to be functioning to use it as an effective buffer to the NATO border countries. When you own the skies, you basically win the war. Putin is taking his own sweet time. I had thought they would try to end things before the spring weather starts thawing out the ground this month, but i guess they can use railway to bring in hardware/tanks now they have the eastern regions secured.
> 
> ...




We live in an information age, assessment is being made by thousands of people receiving info from satellite images, photos, twitter, email, intercepted radio chatter and so on. 

_    Western defence officials have estimated Russian casualties at between 2,000 and 6,000. Based on ratios in similar conflicts, that implies three to four times as many captured and wounded. At its midpoint, such an estimate is more, in three weeks, than the losses of US and UK servicemen combined during 20 years in Afghanistan._​
_The Russians are very good at military parades. They spend weeks getting everything shiny. But it’s a facade_​


> *‘A serious failure’: scale of Russia’s military blunders becomes clear*
> 
> First phase of offensive held back by intelligence weaknesses and poor planning and logistics
> 
> ...







__





						Subscribe to read | Financial Times
					

News, analysis and comment from the Financial Times, the worldʼs leading global business publication




					www.ft.com


----------



## moXJO (14 March 2022)

Value Collector said:


> I am not sure how you can think this invasion is going well for Russia.
> 
> Compare it to the USA invasion of Iraq and the Battle of Bagdad.
> 
> ...



American/Western tech made the difference.
You also have western advisors on strategic plays. 

People probably don't know that Russia was in nam doing basically the same thing to the US at the time. 

This dance has been going on for a long time.


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## JohnDe (14 March 2022)

moXJO said:


> American/Western tech made the difference.
> You also have western advisors on strategic plays.
> 
> People probably don't know that Russia was in nam doing basically the same thing to the US at the time.
> ...




Then the Russian General’s were fools & incompetent for not planning for a worst case scenario.

“Prepare for the worst, hope for the best”


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## Value Collector (14 March 2022)

moXJO said:


> American/Western tech made the difference.
> You also have western advisors on strategic plays.
> 
> People probably don't know that Russia was in nam doing basically the same thing to the US at the time.
> ...




Yep, but there is no way any one can say that this Ukraine invasion has been an example of a good invasion, The Russians are taking huge losses, and probably will have a Pyrrhic victory at the most.


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## moXJO (14 March 2022)

JohnDe said:


> Then the Russian General’s were fools & incompetent for not planning for a worst case scenario.
> 
> “Prepare for the worst, hope for the best”





Value Collector said:


> Yep, but there is no way any one can say that this Ukraine invasion has been an example of a good invasion, The Russians are taking huge losses, and probably will have a Pyrrhic victory at the most.




I remember troops being drunk during the whole Chechen thing. I never said they were good. But they are determined tough buggers. They also thrive under miserable conditions.

Come to think of it Syria was a bit of a mess as well. I think Trump blew up a hundred or so Wagner Russian mercenaries that attacked a US base (or friendly base). Russians view troop losses a lot differently.


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## noirua (15 March 2022)

Lt. Gen Hodges: Russians are about ten days away from ‘culminating point’ of exhausting ammo, manpower
					

As Russian President Vladimir Putin unleashes terror across Ukraine, Lt. Gen. Ben Hodges told “The Faulkner Focus” Monday that he believes Putin's army is about “ten days away” from running out of resources.




					www.foxnews.com


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## IFocus (15 March 2022)

wayneL said:


> Yeah! Because only Russians issue propaganda.




Everyone is well aware that Ukraine will try everything they can to gain support are you saying they shouldn't?.

However they are not calling all out war a "special operation" or making laws jailing people for 15 years for calling it a war.


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## Telamelo (15 March 2022)

Nice to see yet another Russian oil supertanker dock in the UK seems like business as usual - so why can't we here in Australia also get cheap oil from Russia to ease fuel prices  ? Oh that's right sanctions as we aren't allowed to trade with China or Russia as only the UK & the USA can lol









						Oil supertanker from Russian port docks in Southampton
					

ExxonMobil says cargo came from Kazakhstan




					www.independent.co.uk


----------



## wayneL (15 March 2022)

IFocus said:


> Everyone is well aware that Ukraine will try everything they can to gain support are you saying they shouldn't?.
> 
> However they are not calling all out war a "special operation" or making laws jailing people for 15 years for calling it a war.



You shouldn't make a assumptions as to what my thoughts are. I just prefer fact over narratives and I readily admit that I don't have enough facts to get too carried away over judgements


----------



## JohnDe (15 March 2022)

Telamelo said:


> Nice to see yet another Russian oil supertanker dock in the UK seems like business as usual - so why can't we here in Australia also get *cheap oil from Russia* to ease fuel prices  ? Oh that's right sanctions as we aren't allowed to trade with China or Russia as only the UK & the USA can lol
> 
> 
> 
> ...




How cheap is this Russian oil that you talk about?


----------



## Telamelo (15 March 2022)

JohnDe said:


> How cheap is this Russian oil that you talk about?



It's cheap as UK then sell some of it onto poorer European countries like Spain & Portugal... keeps the UK economy ticking over to fund the military aid to Ukraine


----------



## JohnDe (15 March 2022)

Telamelo said:


> It's cheap as UK then sell some of it onto poorer European countries like Spain & Portugal... keeps the UK economy ticking over to fund the military aid to Ukraine




"It's cheap" thanks that is very informative. I can now conclude that you have no idea how much Russian crude to the UK is.

Keep us posted


----------



## Dona Ferentes (15 March 2022)

Telamelo said:


> Nice to see yet another Russian oil supertanker dock in the UK seems like business as usual - so why can't we here in Australia also get cheap oil from Russia to ease fuel prices  ? Oh that's right sanctions as we aren't allowed to trade with China or Russia as only the UK & the USA can lol
> 
> 
> 
> ...



check the Viva thread ... VEA
Petrol prices are determined by Malasian crude ex Singapore refinery.


----------



## moXJO (15 March 2022)

Shell Buys Russian Oil at Bargain Price
					

Shell PLC has snapped up a cargo of Russian crude at a bargain price, ending a self-imposed embargo on Russian oil by the international energy industry. Shell bought 100,000 metric tons of Russi




					www.wsj.com
				




I've heard $20-$40 a barrel under market.


----------



## basilio (15 March 2022)

JohnDe said:


> We live in an information age, assessment is being made by thousands of people receiving info from satellite images, photos, twitter, email, intercepted radio chatter and so on.
> 
> _    Western defence officials have estimated Russian casualties at between 2,000 and 6,000. Based on ratios in similar conflicts, that implies three to four times as many captured and wounded. At its midpoint, such an estimate is more, in three weeks, than the losses of US and UK servicemen combined during 20 years in Afghanistan._​
> _The Russians are very good at military parades. They spend weeks getting everything shiny. But it’s a facade_​
> ...



Thanks for the full copy of that analysis.  Seems to be  excellent, professional research. Pretty sad picture of  Russian preparation.

It does remind me of many earlier examples of USSR war processes. In particular the desire by agencies to tell the Leader what they wanted to hear rather than the reality on the ground. Also the use of "lower value" troops to soak up firepower. 

The fear that Putin will now resort to scorched earth tactics to "win" the war is both troubling but bizarre.  A trashed Ukraine will be an economic drag on Russia for many years.


----------



## basilio (15 March 2022)

President Zelinsky talking to his nation, soldiers in the invading army and Russian Citizens. Powerful. Copy taken from The Guardian

*Here is the first part of his speech.* It’s a long address so I’ll post the rest in two more chunks.


Free people of the free country, the 19th day of our resistance has come to end. Another hard day that made us closer to the victory and peace for Ukraine. As before, the enemy is perplexed. They didn’t expect such resistance. They believed their propaganda that lied about us for decades.

They still can’t recover but have begun realizing that they won’t achieve anything by war. Their soldiers know it. Their officers understand it. They flee from the battlefield, leaving behind their vehicles and equipment. We take the trophies and use them for defence of Ukraine. Russian forces have de-facto become a supplier of equipment for our army. They couldn’t imagine it in a nightmare.

[In Russian] I want to tell Russian soldiers, those who have already entered our lands and those who are only being sent to fight against us. Russian conscripts, please, listen to me attentively. Russian officers, you have already understood everything. You won’t be able to take anything from Ukraine. You will take lives – you are many – but yours will be taken too.

What are you dying for? I know, you want to survive. We hear in your intercepted calls what you really think of this war, of this shame, and of your state. Your conversations with each other, your calls home to your families, we hear everything. We make conclusions. We know who you are. That’s why I offer you a choice: On behalf of the Ukrainian people, we give you a chance to live. If you surrender to our forces, we will treat you as humans have to be treated: with dignity. The way you have not been treated in your army. And the way your army doesn’t treat our people. Choose.

[In Ukrainian]: Our brave defenders continue causing the Russian forces devastating losses. Very soon, the number of downed Russian helicopters will reach 100. They have already lost 80 military places, hundreds of tanks, thousands of other military vehicles and equipment. In 19 days, the Russian army had more soldiers killed than in two bloody wars in Chechnya. What for?

[In Russian] I’m thankful to those Russians who don’t stop trying to deliver the truth, who are fighting against disinformation and tell real facts to their friends and families, and personally to that woman who went in the studio of Channel One with an anti-war poster. Those who aren’t afraid to protest. As long as your country isn’t completely closed from the rest of the world, turning into a huge North Korea, you have to fight, you don’t have to miss your chance.

[In Ukrainian] The EU has approved the fourth package of sanctions against Russia. I’m sure it’s not the last one. We are working with partners on new restrictions that will be imposed against Russia. Every person who is responsible for the war, who is responsible for destroying a democracy and repressions against people. Everyone will get a retaliation from the world. And it’s only the beginning. Accountability for war crimes is inevitable. Accountability for deliberately manufactured humanitarian catastrophe in Ukraine is inevitable. The whole world is seeing what’s happening in Mariupol, Kharkiv, Sumy, Okhtyrka, Hostomel, Irpin. All our partners are informed about crimes of the occupants against civilians and local governments in Kherson and Zaporizhia regions.

Here’s the final part of Zelenskiy’s address, in which he updates Ukrainians on his diplomatic efforts and says talks continue on Tuesday:




> On March 14, we managed to evacuate 3,806 Ukrainians from [encircled] cities and towns. Our convoy of trucks with 100 tons of much needed humanitarian aid for Mariupol is still held up in Berdyansk. For a third day. However, we will keep trying to deliver food, water, and medication to the people of Mariupol. Every aggressive action of the invaders only pushes the world for more sanctions. I spoke to Ursula von der Leyen, Andrzej Duda, Xavier Bettel. There’s 100% of mutual understanding. I spoke to Israeli Prime Minister Bennett as part of negotiations effort to finish this war as soon as possible with honest peace. Our delegation has also worked on it at the talks with the Russian side. Pretty well, as it was reported to me. But we will see. They will continue tomorrow.
> 
> Cabinet of ministers approved a support package for the economy and businesses so that people had work where it is safe. We are launching a fiscal reform. Instead of an added-value tax and income tax, we will introduce a 2% turnover tax and simplified accounting. For small businesses, individual entrepreneurs, we make the payment of the unified tax voluntary. If you can, pay. You can’t, no questions. Secondly, maximum deregulation of business. We cancel all state inspections for all businesses so that they keep working and everyplace where there is no fighting continued to live. We have only on condition: You have to ensure your business operates within the Ukrainian law. And it’s only the beginning of our fiscal reform.




[In the end he said he signed an order to award Ukrainian soldiers]


----------



## Logique2 (15 March 2022)

I'm just in awe of the courage and tenacity of the people of Ukraine.

And what about the neighbouring nations, most especially Poland ..so kind and so generous to the fleeing Ukraine citizens.


----------



## Logique2 (15 March 2022)

basilio said:


> Financial collapses will be far more likely. As Smurf pointed out there will be serious losses in speculative trades across many commodities.
> 
> I struggle to see how  many companies  will hold value as the implications of  shortages and war type economies come into play. Somewhere I remember reading that  derivative investments are in their trillions at the moment.  Don't want to think about the implications of these coming unwound.
> 
> ...



"..word (sic) wide climate change events and economic turmoil from war.."..Basilio

Klaus Schwab (WEF) couldn't have said it better.


----------



## noirua (15 March 2022)

Zelenskyy predicts victory in Ukraine, offers Russian soldiers 'a chance to survive'
					

Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy predicted victory over Russian President Vladimir Putin's forces in Ukraine Tuesday and offered Russian troops a “chance to survive” by surrendering.




					www.foxnews.com


----------



## waterbottle (15 March 2022)

noirua said:


> Zelenskyy predicts victory in Ukraine, offers Russian soldiers 'a chance to survive'
> 
> 
> Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy predicted victory over Russian President Vladimir Putin's forces in Ukraine Tuesday and offered Russian troops a “chance to survive” by surrendering.
> ...




Time will tell


----------



## Value Collector (16 March 2022)

Once the dust settles after this war, we should limit the price russia can sell its oil for to $40, and use the remaining margin to fund a reconstruction fund to rebuild Ukraine.


----------



## Stockbailx (16 March 2022)

Value Collector said:


> Once the dust settles after this war, we should limit the price russia can sell its oil for to $40, and use the remaining margin to fund a reconstruction fund to rebuild Ukraine.



Not long now; Kyiv after been surrounded by Russia on all fronts, is starting to be attacked. Capture, kill the President, of Ukraine. Then as it is all ready; on for young and old.
Question is who rebuilds, and runs the country when the dust settles, solid Ukraine, with help from the West, witch is fragile from the cowards of Nato/US. ( Victory Unlikely unless the west fights for Ukraine ) Whimps!  Or Putin's Russia. Where's all the so called charity going to go? What happens to any Ukrainians left over, scattered all over the place, living under Russia's Rule. Back to square one!


----------



## noirua (16 March 2022)

A canceled check in the amount of $7.2 million, for the purchase of Alaska, issued on August 1, 1868. (National Archives)








						Russian lawmaker demands return of Alaska, California fort and reparations amid US-led sanctions
					

A Russian lawmaker made an outlandish demand over the weekend that the United States return Alaska and a historic settlement in California, in addition to paying reparations to Russia over crippling American-led sanctions that have put Moscow's economy in a tailspin.




					www.foxnews.com


----------



## Dona Ferentes (16 March 2022)

Stockybailz said:


> Not long now; Kyiv after been surrounded by Russia on all fronts, is starting to be attacked. Capture, kill the President, of Ukraine. Then as it is all ready; on for young and old.



or, in the real world


> _Russian forces made small territorial gains in Luhansk Oblast on March 14 but did not conduct any major attacks toward Kyiv or in northeastern Ukraine. Russian forces continue to assemble reinforcements and attempt to improve logistical support in both the Kyiv and southern operational directions. Ongoing Russian efforts to replace combat losses with both Russian replacements and non-Russian sources, including Syrian fighters and the Wagner Group, are unlikely to enable Russia to resume major offensive operations within the coming week._



and then , the summary for 15 March (time difference => 12 hours old)


> *With Russian forces likely unable to complete the encirclement of Kyiv or resume mobile offensive operations in northeastern Ukraine in the near future, the Russian capture of Mariupol will likely be the next key inflection in the Russian invasion of Ukraine.*_ Russian forces have successfully encircled Mariupol and are conducting daily assaults on the western and eastern outskirts of the city. Russian air, missile, and artillery strikes continue to target residential areas and civilian infrastructure to force the city to capitulate. Russian forces have encircled the city to a depth that will likely prevent the defenders from breaking out and prevent Ukrainian efforts to relieve the defenders. Russian forces will likely be able to capture Mariupol or force it to capitulate despite strong Ukrainian defenses_......



each point is backed with attributable footnotes. (Ukrainian sourced, but I'm not noticing much free flow of information from the aggressors)





						Institute for the Study of War
					






					www.understandingwar.org


----------



## JohnDe (16 March 2022)




----------



## IFocus (16 March 2022)

Worth aread perhapes









						Possible Outcomes of the Russo-Ukrainian War and China's Choice | U.S.-China Perception Monitor
					

Hu Wei is the vice-chairman of the Public Policy Research Center of the Counselor's Office of the State Council, the chairman of Shanghai Public Policy Research Association, the chairman of the Academic Committee of the Chahar Institute, a professor, and a doctoral supervisor. For extended...




					uscnpm.org


----------



## noirua (17 March 2022)




----------



## noirua (17 March 2022)




----------



## waterbottle (17 March 2022)

noirua said:


>





A no fly zone is WW3.

The US is being asked to decide between the plight of Ukrainians (via a no fly zone) and the future of the world (via ww3). The latter is unreasonable and criminal when a diplomatic solution (stop pushing NATO)


----------



## againsthegrain (17 March 2022)

waterbottle said:


> A no fly zone is WW3.
> 
> The US is being asked to decide between the plight of Ukrainians (via a no fly zone) and the future of the world (via ww3). The latter is unreasonable and criminal when a diplomatic solution (stop pushing NATO)




Tell it to those people, this is what is criminal


----------



## waterbottle (17 March 2022)

againsthegrain said:


> Tell it to those people, this is what is criminal





You think jeopardising the lives of 7+ billion people is less criminal?


----------



## againsthegrain (17 March 2022)

waterbottle said:


> You think jeopardising the lives of 7+ billion people is less criminal?




Not doing anything might be making it worse then taking a stand.


----------



## waterbottle (17 March 2022)

againsthegrain said:


> Not doing anything might be making it worse then taking a stand.




I'm not advocating for standing by and doing nothing.

I'm advocating for a diplomatic solution that ends fighting ASAP. The primary motivation for this war was NATO encroaching on Russia's western border. A pledge by Ukraine to remain neutral will go further than any armament resupply that's likely to prolong the war and risk an escalation.


----------



## JohnDe (17 March 2022)

waterbottle said:


> You think jeopardising the lives of 7+ billion people is less criminal?




That's almost the same wording that many world leaders said during the 1930's. Well done, great to see you keeping up


----------



## againsthegrain (17 March 2022)

waterbottle said:


> I'm not advocating for standing by and doing nothing.
> 
> I'm advocating for a diplomatic solution that ends fighting ASAP. The primary motivation for this war was NATO encroaching on Russia's western border. A pledge by Ukraine to remain neutral will go further than any armament resupply that's likely to prolong the war and risk an escalation.




Ukraine and the whole Eastern bloc has been bullied by russia for 100s of years.  Diplomatic solutions were never honoured,  e.g when Ukraine gave up nuclear weapons.  How and why would Ukrianians especially now have faith in any word russia says. Also why does russia get to dictate to Ukraine what to do? They are a free country to do what they want, join nato join the chess club if they want.


----------



## bsnews (17 March 2022)

At some point you must make a stand be it diplomatic or with arms.
Unless you can pick up a phone and talk to parties involved, none of us have any idea what started this.


----------



## waterbottle (17 March 2022)

JohnDe said:


> That's almost the same wording that many world leaders said during the 1930's. Well done, great to see you keeping up




Sounds like you're still stuck there.

Have you forgotten about nuclear weapons? They came after the 30s.

Not sure why people are so keen to risk other's lives when there have been countless wars post-2000 that haven't received the same amount of attention despite a greater humanitarian impact.

Are you facing some sort of existential crisis? Is your home being threatened? Have you been starved or tortured? Or are you advocating for nuclear war/ww3 from a comofrtable office? Are you going to sign up to fight if there's an escalation?


----------



## waterbottle (17 March 2022)

againsthegrain said:


> Ukraine and the whole Eastern bloc has been bullied by russia for 100s of years.  Diplomatic solutions were never honoured,  e.g when Ukraine gave up nuclear weapons.  How and why would Ukrianians especially now have faith in any word russia says. Also why does russia get to dictate to Ukraine what to do? They are a free country to do what they want, join nato join the chess club if they want.




They are free to make whatever choice they want and in turn reap whatever reward or consequence.

No country lives in a vacuum. This is reality.

Ukraine has been screwed by multiple countries, not just Russia. Ukraine only now being thought about as an EU country as tanks are about to storm the capital. Seriously?
Of course Russia is an aggressor, so is the US, so is China, so is the EU when it comes to protecting their interests. So what?

Let Ukraine fight whatever war they want to fight. Just don't drag my country into it when a simpler solution is on the table..


----------



## JohnDe (17 March 2022)

waterbottle said:


> Sounds like you're still stuck there.
> 
> Have you forgotten about nuclear weapons? They came after the 30s.
> 
> ...




Yes, History was one of my subjects.

There is always some weapon that puts fear into people, war is a weapon, the fear of poisonous gas attacks from WWI was a huge fear on its own.

Are you suggesting that world leaders allow countries with nuclear weapons the freedom to do anything they wish?


----------



## waterbottle (17 March 2022)

JohnDe said:


> Yes, History was one of my subjects.
> 
> There is always some weapon that puts fear into people, war is a weapon, the fear of poisonous gas attacks from WWI was a huge fear on its own.
> 
> Are you suggesting that world leaders allow countries with nuclear weapons the freedom to do anything they wish?




No, but if you want to walk into the mushroom cloud be my guest.


----------



## JohnDe (17 March 2022)

waterbottle said:


> No, but if you want to walk into the mushroom cloud be my guest.




Your answer tells me that you will allow a country with nuclear weapons to do anything they want because of your fear of the bomb. The same reason that during the 1930's that Germany and Japan invaded countries while most of the world turned a blind eye - fear.

I am proud to be part of the world population that is fearful of the consequences but understand that we must stand up to war mongers and insanity.


----------



## waterbottle (17 March 2022)

JohnDe said:


> Your answer tells me that you will allow a country with nuclear weapons to do anything they want because of your fear of the bomb. The same reason that during the 1930's that Germany and Japan invaded countries while most of the world turned a blind eye - fear.
> 
> I am proud to be part of the world population that is fearful of the consequences but understand that we must stand up to war mongers and insanity.




You can extrapolate whatever you want to justify a delusion.


----------



## JohnDe (17 March 2022)

waterbottle said:


> You can extrapolate whatever you want to justify a delusion.




OK, so you do agree that world leaders must stand up to countries with nuclear weapons, stand up and demand that they follow world rules and desist from war and murder?


----------



## Dona Ferentes (17 March 2022)

*Key Takeaways - 16 March*


*Russia is deploying reserves from Armenia and South Ossetia and cohering new battalion tactical groups (BTGs) from the remnants of units lost early in the invasion. These reinforcements will likely face equal or greater command and logistics difficulties to current frontline Russian units.*
*President Zelensky created a new joint military-civilian headquarters responsible for the defense of Kyiv on March 15.*
*Russian forces conducted several failed attacks northwest of Kyiv and no offensive operations northeast of Kyiv on March 16.*
*Russian forces continue to shell civilian areas of Kharkiv, but will be unlikely to force the city to surrender without encircling it—which Russian forces appear unable to achieve.*
*Russian forces continued to reduce the Mariupol pocket on March 16. Russian forces continue to commit war crimes in the city, targeting refugees and civilian infrastructure.*
*Ukrainian Forces claimed to have killed the commander of the 8th Combined Arms Army’s 150th Motor Rifle Division near Mariupol on March 15. If confirmed, Miyaev would be the fourth Russian general officer killed in Ukraine; his death would be a major blow to the 150th Motor Rifle Division, Russia’s principal maneuver unit in Donbas.*
*Russian warships shelled areas of Odesa Oblast on March 16 but Russian Naval Infantry remain unlikely to conduct an unsupported amphibious landing*


----------



## waterbottle (17 March 2022)

JohnDe said:


> OK, so you do agree that world leaders must stand up to countries with nuclear weapons, stand up and demand that they follow world rules and desist from war and murder?




I've already described my position.

You've taken the option of escalation with the threat of irreversible global damage when a simpler solution exists for a regional problem. 

This is an irrational position. There is no point trying to discuss this with you.


----------



## Logique2 (17 March 2022)

_*'Ukraine and the Great Energy Reset*
If there were ever a time for energy realism, it is now.'_
Mark P. Mills: March 7, 2022








						Ukraine War and the New Shale Revolution | City Journal
					

If there were ever a time for energy realism, it is now.




					www.city-journal.org
				



_"Elon Musk is back in the news. In a tweet heard ’round the world, he stated a simple truth related to the Ukraine war: 'Hate to say it, but we need to increase oil & gas output immediately.'... The energy policies of the past two decades have utterly failed to chart a path toward a future free of hydrocarbons—and more critically, free of dependencies on regimes unfriendly to the West..."_

Germany is reported in the media to be looking at bringing some of their coal-fired electricity plants back online (to minimize dependence on Russian gas).

A more sensible timeline towards Net Zero.. It's all that Bjorn Lomborg and many others have ever said. ..Lomborg was then run out of Australia, by a small number of academic institutions.


----------



## waterbottle (17 March 2022)

Logique2 said:


> _*'Ukraine and the Great Energy Reset*
> If there were ever a time for energy realism, it is now.'_
> Mark P. Mills: March 7, 2022
> 
> ...



Where are they going to get the coal from?


----------



## wayneL (17 March 2022)

Interesting exchange ^^

From my traders perspective I have always looked at things from a risk-reward proposition, but also an attitude of "Apocalypse Never". 

IOW the question I have always asked myself is what is my risk of ruin... And believe me, I have answered that question incorrectly in the past with that risk of ruin coming from somewhere completely unexpected.

So here is the question that I have with regards to the current situation what is the risk of ruin *of probably most of the population of humans on the planet and the entire ecosystem?*

Nuclear winter anyone? You, know, just to finally finish off most of the rest of us that survive a conflagration, not to mention most of the flora and fauna on our planet.

FFS, can we rely on the psychopathic narcissists who run our world not to go there if prodded just that little bit too much?

Take a closer look at these maniacs in power (not just Putin) and try to tell me that we are not right at this very moment perilously close to annihilation.

So maybe it just might be a good idea for all concerned, including we plebeians, to back off the belligerence.

Life on earth may just depend on it.


----------



## JohnDe (17 March 2022)

wayneL said:


> Interesting exchange ^^
> 
> From my traders perspective I have always looked at things from a risk-reward proposition, but also an attitude of "Apocalypse Never".
> 
> ...




Not sure what planet you've been living on but my planet Earth has a species called humans, which have fought battles and wars for millennia. The longest stretch of peace started after WWII, when all the nations got together and agreed on rules to try and stop anymore world wars, this included Nato. Yes there has been wars and battles, but nothing to compare to those that stretched through Europe even before WWI.

There is only one "psychopathic narcissists" (maybe two) in charge of a country with a huge military force designed for attack and with a nuclear arsenal.

I also have run my life and business on a 'risk-reward proposition', unlike you I have had no failures. I have had a couple of close encounters with my life, as a younger more foolish person, but life lessons have taught me well. My business and investments have been successful, so far. My marriage and adult children are all happy and healthy. My children are now successfully employed and preparing for their 'risk-reward' life.

One thing I have learnt during my time in business, is to use people trained in areas that I am not, and to research before committing. World politics is the same, we have elected leaders and paid bureaucrats and diplomats to study and follow world issues and make the best decision they can at the time.


----------



## Stockbailx (17 March 2022)

waterbottle said:


> I've already described my position.
> 
> You've taken the option of escalation with the threat of irreversible global damage when a simpler solution exists for a regional problem.
> 
> This is an irrational position. There is no point trying to discuss this with you.



I don't know weather to bye you a beer or just give you a bottle of water for sanity...I agree magic mushee's  ain't the best outcome and solves nothing but tells the tail of rich corrupt world leaders, with no idea of world peace and a correct diplomacy.

I don't believe Putin's got any nuclear bombs and if he did he wouldn't use them giving the life he lives and the bounty it would put on his head! Biden and Putin are the same sort of heresy Putin, for starting mass destruction and destroying civilization as the Ukrainian know it.
Biden for destroying everything that Nato stands for. By talking them out of supplying air support, for the stupid assumption of a so called WW3, what bull****.

If there was a WW3, which i doubt it. The powers of East Europe (Germany Poland etc ) UK USA AUST would win. Hang Putin and Russia's diplomacy by neck and drop a bomb on his head. Solve everything. Then we take china by the scruff of the neck. Although note if you get ride of the monarchy, you might find that even though their doing nothing wrong.

if their to be a war to end all wars disable Russia.


----------



## wayneL (17 March 2022)

JohnDe said:


> unlike you




LMAO

Okay, its pants down and full bladders at ten paces... extra points for colour and acridity. But bear in mind the friction burns on your "old fella" will be there for all to see.


----------



## JohnDe (17 March 2022)

wayneL said:


> LMAO
> 
> Okay, its pants down and full bladders at ten paces... extra points for colour and acridity. But bear in mind the friction burns on your "old fella" will be there for all to see.




Hey, it was you that decided to talk about the size of your penis in a conversation about Russia and the Ukraine. if you can't handle a like for like response, then stick to the subject matter 


" _I have always asked myself is what is my risk of ruin... And believe me, I have answered that question incorrectly in the past with that risk of ruin coming from somewhere completely unexpected_.....So maybe it just might be a good idea for all concerned, including we plebeians, to back off the belligerence. " wayneL


----------



## wayneL (17 March 2022)

JohnDe said:


> Hey, it was you that decided to talk about the size of your penis in a conversation about Russia and the Ukraine. if you can't handle a like for like response, then stick to the subject matter




Really?

it would be interesting if you could quote where I mentioned the size of my penis.

I'll wait.


----------



## Craton (17 March 2022)

Lol, a battle of the 'heads, where's my popcorn?🍿


----------



## wayneL (17 March 2022)

Craton said:


> Lol, a battle of the 'heads, where's my popcorn?🍿



Well, Johnny hasn't turned up for round two yet... waiting... waiting.


----------



## JohnDe (17 March 2022)

wayneL said:


> Well, Johnny hasn't turned up for round two yet... waiting... waiting.




Same.


----------



## wayneL (17 March 2022)

JohnDe said:


> Same.



Just waiting for you to show where I mentioned size, Bro. Then we can rock on.


----------



## Telamelo (17 March 2022)

Let's pray/hope it doesn't come to this


----------



## Smurf1976 (17 March 2022)

Logique2 said:


> _*'Ukraine and the Great Energy Reset*
> If there were ever a time for energy realism, it is now.'_
> Mark P. Mills: March 7, 2022
> 
> ...



On the energy stuff I'll simply observe that none of this is new, indeed it's far more well established than most seem to realise.

This issue, not climate change, is the reason the International Energy Agency was established in the first place with its associated agreements and so on.

It's also the actual reason why the then newly elected state government in Victoria, back in 1982, proposed an assortment of energy regulations in that state which had as their object a move away from oil and gas.

At the risk of lobbing an off topic rock - it's also a key focus in the planning documents circa 1977 which ultimately lead to the highly controversial at the time but never built hydro scheme involving the Franklin River in Tasmania.

Also the actual reason why France went all in on nuclear, dismissing economic cost as a comparatively unimportant consideration.

Same reason for the US' Energy Efficiency Act of 1979.

Same reason the New Zealand government established the New Zealand Synthetic Fuels Corporation which in a joint venture with Mobil Oil (now ExxonMobil) built and operated the world's only synthetic petrol production plant with production commencing in 1986 (since closed). The petrol produced was 97 RON for the record (without lead or other such additives) so it sure wasn't junk.

Same reason Shell, ARCO, Exxon and several others jointly blew USD 5.5 billion circa 1980 proving that oil shale could be developed but without actually building a permanent operation. That's $5.5 billion in actual 1980 $, equivalent to about USD 19 billion today adjusted for inflation. It was a joint effort by multiple companies at a single site.

And on I could go. There's a rather long list of these.....

Point being this wasn't just an issue that an academic or a few data geeks sitting in a back office somewhere knew about. 40 years ago - that's quite a while but it's well within living memory so it begs the question "how on earth was this forgotten?" How on earth has the West ended up in such a mess over something that was clearly understood by all sorts of people, from big corporations and major national governments down to relatively small countries and Australian state governments, less than 40 years ago?

Heck even National Geographic put out a special issue devoted solely to the subject and complete with lots of technical details and so on. So even the general public had access to the information at the time.

There's a broader lesson in there I think - I'm no guru on anything about wars but I strongly suspect those who do know about them are thinking much the same "how have we managed to fail to learn from relatively recent history that was so well understood not that long ago?"


----------



## JohnDe (17 March 2022)

Telamelo said:


> Let's pray/hope it doesn't come to this


----------



## moXJO (17 March 2022)

Anyone advocating for escalating is a damn idiot. At the moment deaths are in the tens of thousands. Escalate and its damn well in the hundreds. Bloody fools without a clue. 
This is a grind them on all fronts. Be it sanctions, trade, banking system, military assistance to Ukraine, etc. I'd rather see Putin taken out with an internal struggle then watch Europe and Russia in flames.

The worst thing you could do is kick off WW3 you pack of idiots. You have no bloody idea who else will get involved or what Russia is willing to do. And Russia isn't even the biggest threat in the room. 
Utter madness.


----------



## JohnDe (17 March 2022)

I don’t think that anyone is calling for an escalation of hostilities. 

Ukraine is asking for assistance to protect their freedom, their democracy and their lives.

The majority of the world is answering in unison, in a first that shows an aggressor and any would be aggressor that we are united against war.

The probability of a nuclear war is minute but even 0.5% is too much. And so is a world split in two by dictators willing to blackmail every country with the threat of nuclear retaliation if we don’t bend to their demands.

We stand now and live with freedom that our grandparents fought for, or we bow down and beg on our knees.

While the fighting goes on and the west does not waver while carefully and bravely supporting Ukraine, strong and wise negotiations must continue behind the scenes with Putin and Russian leaders.

I am optimistic that that this will end without a nuclear weapon being fired, because it is in no one’s interest to have a desolate Russia and a destroyed Europe.


----------



## moXJO (18 March 2022)

Maybe people just want to get involved in this war. Well here you go. You can actively save lives without becoming a red smear on the Ukrainian landscape.



Helping pets left behind.




__





						Donation Page
					






					donate.four-paws.org
				





Some of the bigger charities.









						Ukraine Emergency Appeal | UNICEF Australia
					

Children are bearing the brunt of a growing crisis. Donate now to help children in Ukraine.




					www.unicef.org.au
				












						Children’s Emergency Fund – Save the Children Australia
					

Donate now to help children affected by life threatening emergencies around the world.




					www.savethechildren.org.au
				





Big list of charities here:








						Here's a list of the top-rated charities to help the Ukraine relief effort
					

Here is a list of highly rated nonprofits engaged in relief and recovery efforts in Ukraine and the surrounding areas.




					www.google.com.au


----------



## Smurf1976 (18 March 2022)

JohnDe said:


> wise negotiations must continue behind the scenes



I think the key point for the general public is this bit.

Whatever's really going on won't be in the news.


----------



## moXJO (18 March 2022)

JohnDe said:


> I don’t think that anyone is calling for an escalation of hostilities.
> 
> Ukraine is asking for assistance to protect their freedom, their democracy and their lives.
> 
> ...



I don't think you realise just how razor thin the line actually is. 
The West is actively doing what it can. We are very near an all out war. 
Regardless of nukes or not. If the war begins to spread, we will begin to have huge civilian casualties on either side. 

It sucks for ukraine absolutely. But right now Russia is keeping civilian casualties at the lower end of the scale. 

The right thing to do is provide aid to the Ukrainian people that need shelter/food. 

That's where civilians can start.


----------



## Stockbailx (18 March 2022)

moXJO said:


> I don't think you realise just how razor thin the line actually is.
> The West is actively doing what it can. We are very near an all out war.
> Regardless of nukes or not. If the war begins to spread, we will begin to have huge civilian casualties on either side.
> 
> ...



It's all pretty realistic that the civilians of Ukraine need love and respect, plus all the support of the West and Europe in these trying times. But your got to put into prospective, that there all ready in all out war.  To respect the Ukrainian people and their way of life, NATO needs to provide Air Support. This in turn will reduce casualty's and infrastructure damage to preserve UKRAINE.

So then Putin then under minds this. But he needs to be put into his place, he can threaten with war mung a talk of nukes, but to me that's just scare tactics that scares the US because their carrying, and that Intimates NATO. So where left with a stale mate situation.

Interesting to see what comes out of the meeting between Biden and NATO some where in Europe on the 24th I believe. Where it should be disgust that they supply a no fly zone over Ukraine. This will put Putin in his place. Ukrainian will have a fair and just fight for their freedoms against Russia. AID WILL THEN BE ABLE TO REACH THE UKRAINIAN PEOPLE...


----------



## JohnDe (18 March 2022)

Stockybailz said:


> It's all pretty realistic that the civilians of Ukraine need love and respect, plus all the support of the West and Europe in these trying times. But your got to put into prospective, that there all ready in all out war.  To respect the Ukrainian people and their way of life, NATO needs to provide Air Support. This in turn will reduce casualty's and infrastructure damage to preserve UKRAINE.
> 
> So then Putin then under minds this. But he needs to be put into his place, he can threaten with war mung a talk of nukes, but to me that's just scare tactics that scares the US because their carrying, and that Intimates NATO. So where left with a stale mate situation.
> 
> Interesting to see what comes out of the meeting between Biden and NATO some where in Europe on the 24th I believe. Where it should be disgust that they supply a no fly zone over Ukraine. This will put Putin in his place. Ukrainian will have a fair and just fight for their freedoms against Russia. AID WILL THEN BE ABLE TO REACH THE UKRAINIAN PEOPLE...




The time for air support has passed, it could have been done before the invasion but not now, for several reasons.
If air support was to be implemented now the Russian air defence could easily destroy NATO planes.
Forget air support.


----------



## Stockbailx (18 March 2022)

JohnDe said:


> The time for air support has passed, it could have been done before the invasion but not now, for several reasons.
> If air support was to be implemented now the Russian air defence could easily destroy NATO planes.
> Forget air support.



Full on! That's right there could of been more attention to the Ukrainian needs earlier on. But for me it's never to late. I don't like the idea of Putin getting what he wants. I reckon NATO can take Russia air, land, and sea. i got a lot riding on the fact that Ukraine stands their ground and defeats Putin/Russia, because he doesn't scare me unlike Biden who's a coward just like Putin hiding behind his nukes.

A bit of a bad invention that the Nukes. But for me all politicians with there finger on the button. Because the demographics are over established with power greed. Personally not enough intention to detail and the theory of a war with nukes, should be nipped in the bud by expelling the Cold War days and taking Russia down...

*Sorry to hear about it Ukraine!  *


----------



## againsthegrain (18 March 2022)

What can still be done is passing over the migs from Poland and Bulgaria like it was planned but stalled.  Its a very thin line there but russians are apparrently flying in some planes from belarus now


----------



## moXJO (18 March 2022)

Air support will be considered an act of war. There is zero chance of that happening.

 However there's a bunch of switchblade missiles and the starstreak system from the brits heading there. 
Millions are being spent on the defence of Ukraine. 
There's also a tonne of ex special forces guys risking their lives in there. 

You would not get "no fly" or air support at all.


----------



## Stockbailx (18 March 2022)

moXJO said:


> Air support will be considered an act of war. There is zero chance of that happening.



Its the negativity that bugs me! Ukraine already at war. It wouldn't be an act of war. More like a sign of solidarity for Ukraine. Putin can considerate a act of war, but he started it. So lets finish it!


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## moXJO (18 March 2022)

Stockybailz said:


> Its the negativity that bugs me! Ukraine already at war. It wouldn't be an act of war. More like a sign of solidarity for Ukraine. Putin can considerate a act of war, but he started it. So lets finish it!



It not a COD mission.
It would also increase casualties.
And no telling who else would get involved.


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## Stockbailx (18 March 2022)

againsthegrain said:


> What can still be done is passing over the migs from Poland and Bulgaria like it was planned but stalled. Its a very thin line there but russians are apparrently flying in some planes from belarus now



Russia got friends, supplying planes, Ukraine's got more friends but no real mates ( Cowards ) DAMN


moXJO said:


> It not a COD mission.
> It would also increase casualties.
> And no telling who else would get involved.



I  find it hard to understand your digression, I must be devastated. Must be more we can do! Ukraine got the short end of the straw! DAMN
I'm not sure how that support going or if it will ever get to the Ukrainians in time. Its certainly not flying in. Interesting meeting on the 23/24th but even that seems to late! DAMN


----------



## waterbottle (20 March 2022)

Just how long will sanctions be palatable for the Western world when this is happening less than a month into the conflict?


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## Telamelo (20 March 2022)

waterbottle said:


> Just how long will sanctions be palatable for the Western world when this is happening less than a month into the conflict?




Cost of bread alone up 40% already in Spain & Portugal... we in Australia just starting to get a taste of inflation with fuel prices soaring & grocery items rising significantly - Coffee tin up 25% already this past week, insurance up 25%, gas,water & electricity is next.. Meanwhile, our big4banks have cut interest rates in Aussie bank accounts next to zilch whilst increasing pain on mortgage holder's..


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## againsthegrain (20 March 2022)

Telamelo said:


> Meanwhile, our big4banks have cut interest rates in Aussie bank accounts next to zilch whilst increasing pain on mortgage holder's..




There is no angry icon unfortunately


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## moXJO (20 March 2022)

Example of what happens if a thermobaric gets hit with anti-tank missile. Syrian video.


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## Logique2 (20 March 2022)

moXJO said:


> Anyone advocating for escalating is a damn idiot. At the moment deaths are in the tens of thousands. Escalate and its damn well in the hundreds. Bloody fools without a clue.
> This is a grind them on all fronts. Be it sanctions, trade, banking system, military assistance to Ukraine, etc. I'd rather see Putin taken out with an internal struggle then watch Europe and Russia in flames.
> 
> The worst thing you could do is kick off WW3 you pack of idiots. You have no bloody idea who else will get involved or what Russia is willing to do. And Russia isn't even the biggest threat in the room.
> Utter madness.






Smurf1976 said:


> On the energy stuff I'll simply observe that none of this is new, indeed it's far more well established than most seem to realise.
> 
> This issue, not climate change, is the reason the International Energy Agency was established in the first place with its associated agreements and so on.
> 
> ...



Smurf
 mate none more knowleable in here on energy policy, ..but we need you to spell it out for us..

Words in your mouth, but aren't  the energy policies of the West delivering  Putin his expected victory?
..He has coal-fired power electricity.. and no resistance to nuclear generation..


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## Knobby22 (20 March 2022)

Someone pointed out to me that Putin is very sick and if you look at his recent photos of his face you can see the effects of cortosoids. They are used for many treatments.

Maybe this is his last hurrah?


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## Smurf1976 (20 March 2022)

Logique2 said:


> aren't the energy policies of the West delivering Putin his expected victory?



The big problem and the reason for historic concern ultimately comes down to the distribution of reserves.

Russia itself has 23% of world natural gas reserves, the most of any country.

The other former USSR countries have 8% between them.

Yemen, Oman, United Arab Emirates, Qatar, Saudi Arabia, Kuwait, Iraq, Israel, Syria, Iran, Afghanistan and Pakistan between them have 41% with Iran, Qatar and Saudi Arabia being dominant in that group.

African countries 8%, China 3.1%, Venezuela 2.7%.

USA, Canada, Australia, New Zealand, Japan, UK, Norway and all EU countries combined don't quite get to 10% with the US (6.2%), Australia (1.5%), Canada (1.0%) and Norway (0.7) dominating that group.

The basic thinking is that the distribution of natural gas is such that for the West, particularly the UK and EU, to be a major consumer was always going to involve buying it from countries that were at best problematic with unreliable supply and at worst would either use the money to launch a war or hold the West to ransom by threatening to cut supply off.

That's not something I came up with, it was a pretty widespread notion during the 1970's and 80's and along with very similar concerns about oil, and noting the existence of an actual cartel in the case of oil (OPEC) which was highly active at the time, gave rise to much concern.

So long as the West, and in particular Europe, continues to use so much of the stuff it's going to involve being reliant upon and sending large amounts of money to places that we don't get along with particularly well. It might not be a problem at any given time or with any given country but it's always going to be a looming threat so long as it continues.

I won't go as far as claiming that Russia wouldn't have invaded Ukraine if nobody bought Russia's oil and gas, since it's impossible to prove either way, but I think it's fair to say that handing Russia over 1 billion USD* each and every day and being reliant on them to literally keep the lights on does put them in a much stronger position than they'd otherwise be.

*Very rough figure given how volatile prices have been recently. Reserve figures I've quoted based on current US Energy Information Administration data.


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## waterbottle (22 March 2022)

The West is caving









						Renault resumes car production in Moscow as rivals cut ties with Russia
					

Carmaker’s move backed by French government as Nestlé also comes under pressure to withdraw business




					www.theguardian.com


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## basilio (22 March 2022)

The war in Ukraine is creating havoc across a wide range of essential  products. We know that wheat prices are going through the roof as their crops are unable to be exported.

However there are also a wide range of critical industrial  products that are impacting on global manufacturing.

_Carmaker BMW has also cut production at its factories and deleted touchscreens from some of its models because of the chip shortage. The car maker also warned of further supply chain disruptions due to Russia's invasion of Ukraine and expected the chip crisis to drag on this year.

*Ms Hunter said Ukraine is a major producer of neon which is a key component of microchips.

"Neon is an absolutely essential input into chip making [and] chip production. You can't substitute it for anything else," she said.*

"We've obviously seen the fallout in terms of oil markets and what's happened to the oil price, and indeed to other commodity markets and commodity supplies as well.

"Russia, for example, is a major supplier of copper, but those supplies are now being disrupted in the global marketplace. It's generally a challenging time for manufacturers in all sectors. And car producers are no exception to that."

*Ukraine is also a key source of wire harnesses that are used to power automotive electric systems.*

"There are vehicle manufacturing capabilities in some of those markets. And as they close, that's just going to add to the the global disruption in production," Mr Voortman said.

"There are also some very critical minerals being made, particularly in the manufacture of catalytic converters, and a lot of that's based in the Ukraine. So expect this to only add to the problem."









						'Luckily I'm not desperate to have a car tomorrow': Buyers face a 12-month wait for new cars
					

Delivery times for popular car models have blown out to more than a year, as Russia's invasion of Ukraine exacerbates supply chain issues, driving up the cost of new and used cars.




					www.abc.net.au
				



_


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## Craton (22 March 2022)

As per @basilio post above...

From Silicon Republic on Neon and reads in part:



> Ukraine is a significant supplier of neon and Ingas and Cryoin account for anywhere between 45pc and 54pc of the world’s total neon output, according to Reuters calculations.
> 
> Ingas, based in the heavily bombed city of Mariupol, typically exports neon to customers in countries such as Taiwan, Korea, China, Germany and the US, with about 75pc going to the chip industry. Now, the city is under siege with limited phone and internet access.
> 
> Cryoin, which is based in the city of Odessa in southern Ukraine, told Reuters that that it could weather at least three months with the manufacturing plant closed, after which it would face a sharp financial crunch. If equipment is damaged or access to raw materials is restricted, the company said it would make it difficult to restart operations.




From Automotive News Europe on Wire Harnesses and reads in part:


> Automakers including Volkswagen, BMW and Porsche are struggling to obtain crucial wire harnesses as suppliers in western Ukraine have been shuttered by the Russian invasion of the country, forcing production stops at car factories in Germany.
> 
> Production of the part, needed for organizing miles of vehicle cables, has affected suppliers including Leoni, Fujijura and Nexans.
> 
> ...




Alongside energy and food, the Putin cagey mongrel strategies are becoming very clear and, in my mind, this "special military ops" against Ukraine was always an indirect declaration of war against the West. From the outset designed to hit and inflict the most human and economic pain and disruption on as many fronts as possible.

Any talk of Russia's weaknesses falls into the carefully planned subterfuge that is classic Putin. With years of planning and stockpiling, I'm just waiting for the surprise attack/s and killer punch.

The West's speed for greed and don't you dare rock that apple cart has been well and truly baited and trapped. The wake up call is perhaps too late...


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## basilio (22 March 2022)

Thanks Cration  I noticed this comment at the end of one of the stories in the website

_VW, BMW and Mercedes-Benz have been forced to reduce production at their German factories because supplies of wire harnesses produced in the Ukraine have been disrupted.
_
The disruption is spreading to other countries in eastern Europe because many of their Ukrainian workers are returning to their home country to fight the Russians, media reports said.

Suppliers in Poland, the Czech Republic and Slovakia are affected.










						Ford's European output hit by Ukraine war
					

The automaker's plants in Germany and Spain are pausing or cutting output after Russia's invasion of Ukraine disrupted parts supplies.




					europe.autonews.com


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## Stockbailx (22 March 2022)

Craton said:


> The West's speed for greed and don't you dare rock that apple cart has been well and truly baited and trapped. The wake up call is perhaps too late...



Indeed, although I hate to say it's too late. Rather it's been going on to long, with out the no fly zone, constructed by NATO and the west. I feel there will be no resistance by anyone except the Russian's, and if Putin wants a war let's give him one. Put a end to his de-meaner of the old USSR.
I feel for the Ukrainian's, and don't approve of their way of life been terminated by someone else's greed for power and domination...
I look forward to Biden's meeting with NATO tomorrow or Thursday, and hope their not threatened by Putin and some thing constructive can come out of it, and that they will provide some logistical support and air support, besides what can be offered on the ground. If that assistance get there? Protect the mother land that is Ukraine for Ukrainian's and NOT for Russia's/Putin...


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## Craton (22 March 2022)

Cheers @basilio
A little more on the caginess of you know who.
Back in late 2019 Russia tested a total disconnect from the internet. Obviously a plan was already in place to curtail free speech and access to the broader global community.

@Stockybailz 
I'm a never too late type and like you, feel for the Ukrainian's. I cannot even imagine what it must be like. Just thinking what it would be like if my main street or the block where I lived looked like the images I've seen. Geez, what absolute horror!


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## wayneL (22 March 2022)

Craton said:


> Cheers @basilio
> A little more on the caginess of you know who.
> Back in late 2019 Russia tested a total disconnect from the internet. Obviously a plan was already in place to curtail free speech and access to the broader global community.
> 
> ...



We are pretty spoilt and insulated here in Australia. My own parents used to tell me the stories of being bombed by the Nazis during world war 2 in their hometown of Newcastle upon Tyne, because of the shipyards there... and there are dozens and dozens of more recent examples which we really haven't paid that much attention to.

The only difference is the narrative.

Shock and awe was etc was all good because it was us doing the shocking and aweing, even though under seemingly false pretences...  and the situation in Yemen has been invisible to us, because I want media has ignored it.

This does not say anything to diminish the situation in the Ukraine, but one must wonder about the attention given to various conflicts and how our reactions to them are being largely guided by the media.


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## Craton (22 March 2022)

@wayneL 
For obvious cultural reasons we relate more to the British and European "way of life" and hence, our foreign policies and media reflect that fact.
I'm fairly certain that most of us are equally appalled at what has/is occurring in other parts of the world.
Other hostilities and issues are certainly no less relevant to me.
E.g. the immense environment damage carried out daily to the great Amazon should see the same sort of sanctions imposed on Brazil.


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## Smurf1976 (22 March 2022)

Craton said:


> Alongside energy and food, the Putin cagey mongrel strategies are becoming very clear and, in my mind, this "special military ops" against Ukraine was always an indirect declaration of war against the West. From the outset designed to hit and inflict the most human and economic pain and disruption on as many fronts as possible.



Natural gas I've said much about so won't repeat it but for things like neon and wiring harnesses there's no excuse at all for the West to be relying on others.

Both could be done in Australia if we wanted to indeed I've personally made wiring harnesses for other uses in the past. Probably not as efficiently as a proper setup would do it, but just did it in the workshops a long time ago now. It ain't rocket science, it's the kind of thing someone can be trained to do very easily.


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## Stockbailx (24 March 2022)

President Biden in Europe, for summit with NATO and Meetings with the EU. After watching and hearing on the ABC's Breakfast programme, I found it quite lame their only strengthening the borders rather then entering Ukraine. Still early day's, more can be done, from NATO and the EU. One thing that play's with my convenience is that they trip over the scare mun-ga tactics of chemical warfare and Nuke's ( leave it out ).









						NATO estimates up to 15,000 Russian soldiers killed so far in Ukraine
					

NATO estimates 7,000 to 15,000 Russian soldiers have been killed in four weeks of war in Ukraine and says it will likely ramp up military forces on its eastern flank.




					www.abc.net.au


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## JohnDe (24 March 2022)




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## Craton (24 March 2022)

JohnDe said:


> View attachment 139444




No doubt there's an Extra Stout brew so sign me up for 10 slabs thanks.


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## noirua (25 March 2022)

Ukraine war: Huge Russian ship destroyed by Kyiv's navy
					

Flames and thick black smoke was seen rising over the port of Berdyansk, in southern Ukraine, as Kyiv's navy said it had destroyed a Russian ship using the dock to unload tanks.




					www.dailymail.co.uk
				



Ukraine destroys Russian landing ship after state media revealed its location with propaganda footage: Huge fireball rises over port that had been taken by Putin's forces​
*Ball of flames and smoke seen rising from Berdyansk, a Ukrainian port under the control of Russian forces *
*Kyiv's navy claimed to have hit and destroyed the Orsk, a 370ft Alligator-class Russian landing ship  *
*If confirmed, it would be the largest vessel that Ukraine has struck and another embarrassing loss for Putin *
*Russian state media revealed the ship's location just days earlier, showing it unloading armoured vehicles*


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## noirua (25 March 2022)

Erdoğan: Ukraine and Russia nearing 'consensus' on 4 of 6 key issues to ending the war
					

Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan claimed on Thursday that Russian President Vladimir Putin and Ukraine President Volodymyr Zelenskyy are nearing “consensus” on key issues to resolve the Russia-Ukraine war. Turkey has been hosting diplomatic talks between the nations.




					www.foxnews.com


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## divs4ever (26 March 2022)

sptrawler said:


> One wonders if it will be a joint currency, between China and Russia.



 there was already a plan ( seemingly abandoned ) to have a BRICS  common currency  since Russia , China and India are moving closer  and Brazil MIGHT be thinking of returning to the group  that only leaves South Africa 'stranded ' , but maybe Iran would be invited to make up the bulk of the economic clout , rather strange the original plans omitted Pakistan ( under Imran Khan ) i would have thought they would have been invited even if just to settle the Kashmir dispute , so India could grow in a better coordinated manner 

 now to me , it seems that China does NOT want to be the reserve currency  , but would like a reasonable amount of influence in it


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## noirua (27 March 2022)

Explosions rock Lviv in western Ukraine, amid speculation Russia is changing strategy
					

Smoke billowed over the city of Lviv in western Ukraine Saturday after multiple explosions were heard near an oil depot.




					www.foxnews.com


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## Stockbailx (27 March 2022)

Here's a educational view, on the war in Ukraine; Detailing Ukraine's History, showing sum powerful insight the lead up to the Russian Invasion. Why in Putin's eyes, and explains why Ukraine failed to become a NATO member, and tells of a resilient nation, full of good stock, but let down by a past President, who was in my eye's untrustworthy. And let the Ukrainian nation down...That's why there in conflict now and Putin got he's way...


For those who ain't all adwares of the conflict it makes for some good viewing...


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## Dona Ferentes (27 March 2022)

" _Russia without Ukraine is a country, Russia with Ukraine is an empire_."

thanks for posting


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## JohnDe (27 March 2022)

There is a lot more to European history than a 30 minute video could ever show, and regardless to past history, we are now seeing history in the making.

"There are decades where nothing happens; and there are weeks where decades happen"--Vladimir Ilyich Lenin.



> Russo-Finnish War, also called Winter War, (November 30, 1939–March 12, 1940), war waged by the Soviet Union against Finland
> 
> Soviet troops totaling about one million men attacked Finland on several fronts. The heavily outnumbered Finns put up a skillful and effective defense that winter, and the Red Army made little progress. In February 1940, however, the Soviets used massive artillery bombardments to breach the Mannerheim Line (the Finns’ southern defensive barrier stretching across the Karelian Isthmus), after which they streamed northward across the isthmus to the Finnish city of Viipuri (Vyborg). Unable to secure help from Britain and France, the exhausted Finns made peace (the Treaty of Moscow) on Soviet terms on March 12, 1940, agreeing to the cession of western Karelia and to the construction of a Soviet naval base on the Hanko Peninsula.






> In a muddy car park in Norway's Far North, Finnish troops show off their military might, lining up rocket launchers, artillery and snowmobiles as they prepare to train alongside their NATO brothers-in-arms.
> 
> Russia's invasion of Ukraine has shifted public opinion in the two Nordic nations.
> 
> ...






> Former Finnish Prime Minister Alexander Stubb says he believes Helsinki will soon apply for NATO membership. Russia's invasion of Ukraine has increased public support for NATO in Finland to record levels.
> 
> 
> 
> ...


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## bluekelah (27 March 2022)

Value Collector said:


> I am not sure how you can think this invasion is going well for Russia.
> 
> Compare it to the USA invasion of Iraq and the Battle of Bagdad.
> 
> ...



USA (along with all their pals all around the world) was able to mass troops, arms and supplies for aImost half a year before taking Iraq. Iraq had a huge personnel force but they were already demoralised/fatigued by 8 years fighting Iran and barely surviving. Once the Allies took out the Iraqi air force, it wasnt too hard to take out all the radars and antiquated tanks etc.. in the iraqi forces.

I would urge you to look at the more recent Afghan war and see how that ended. Somali civil war still ongoing and I think Yemen wars still going. US war machine can only do so much all around the world, much like historical world powers, dutch/british, after a while, it gets too costly to have your fingers in so many pies.

Regarding Ukraine, as I mentioned Russia is trying to take it as much intact as possible. They are not trying to destroy everything. It would be a very simple matter to destroy key telecoms/energy/water targets in a day or two.  There are a lot of their own Russian people in the many Ukrainian cities and towns. Its very different when you are "liberating" a nation that basically speaks the same language, same religion, similar culture, historical ties, same slavic race..

Putin is also not seeking to kill/capture Zelensky but to get him  to come to the table and effect their demands.

And talking about supply chains, I think the days of easy logistics etc are over, USA itself currently having ships piled up outside their ports waiting to process the shipments etc..


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## JohnDe (27 March 2022)

bluekelah said:


> USA (along with all their pals all around the world) was able to mass troops, arms and supplies for aImost half a year before taking Iraq.




I hope that you realise that Russia and the Ukraine are on the same continent, that the border each other, that Russia has the worlds largest train network, that Putin has secretly planned the invasion since 2013.

There is nothing to analyse, Russian military is a mess. Russian corruption has lead military spending to be rorted, resulting in substandard equipment and training.

All Russia has is the threat of nuclear weapons.


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## bluekelah (27 March 2022)

JohnDe said:


> I hope that you realise that Russia and the Ukraine are on the same continent, that the border each other, that Russia has the worlds largest train network, that Putin has secretly planned the invasion since 2013.
> 
> There is nothing to analyse, Russian military is a mess. Russian corruption has lead military spending to be rorted, resulting in substandard equipment and training.
> 
> All Russia has is the threat of nuclear weapons.




I hope you realise that Russians are not trying to flatten Ukraine   and they are putting an offensive in the middle of a freakin snowy winter/spring weather, its warming up now, google weather showing a balmy -2 degrees in Kiev tonight...

I could say the same thing about Ukrainian military in a mess as well  They are arming civilians with no military training and letting them fight ( or shoud we say martyr themselves) . Why would a well trained military with reportedly 200k personnel strength vs 100k+ Russians need to recruit trigger happy civilians that have never killed) . Ukrainian corruption has been just as bad. But hey the generals on both sides used to be drinking buddies decades ago under the USSR banner 

It would have been easy so easy to just take out the 15 nuclear reactors, lights out in Kiev and "win" the "war" Why has Russia not done that? Why are they still mucking around, slowly taking over cities/towns and infrastructure? DId you read about the recent protest in a town that ended with the Mayor being released and getting the Russians to leave em alone if they didnt house any Ukrainian troops. Whats up with that? Doesnt sound like a real war to me?


----------



## JohnDe (27 March 2022)




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## Value Collector (27 March 2022)

bluekelah said:


> USA (along with all their pals all around the world) was able to mass troops, arms and supplies for aImost half a year before taking Iraq. Iraq had a huge personnel force but they were already demoralised/fatigued by 8 years fighting Iran and barely surviving. Once the Allies took out the Iraqi air force, it wasnt too hard to take out all the radars and antiquated tanks etc.. in the iraqi forces.
> 
> I would urge you to look at the more recent Afghan war and see how that ended. Somali civil war still ongoing and I think Yemen wars still going. US war machine can only do so much all around the world, much like historical world powers, dutch/british, after a while, it gets too costly to have your fingers in so many pies.
> 
> ...



Don’t confuse invasion with long term occupation or successful destruction of a government.

The USA were extremely successful in both the invasion of Iraq and Afghanistan, the down fall in Afghanistan came from the inability to install a stable self sustaining government that could maintain those occupied land when the USA left.

Russia hasn’t even been successful in completing the invasion and taking the capital and government yet, which is only step one.

If they can’t complete step 1, how are they going to complete step 2 which is maintain an occupation? and then how are they going to succeed in step 3 which would be installing a self sustaining government friendly to their long term objectives?

The USA are very good at step 1 and step 2, but russia is floundering, I would argue no country is good at step 3 long term any nation will revert back once occupation forces leave, if that’s what it’s citizens really want.


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## JohnDe (27 March 2022)

Value Collector said:


> Don’t confuse invasion with long term occupation or successful destruction of a government.
> 
> The USA were extremely successful in both the invasion of Iraq and Afghanistan, the down fall in Afghanistan came from the inability to install a stable self sustaining government that could maintain those occupied land when the USA left.
> 
> ...




Yes. “_They’d be doing this not to make a better, safer EV for customers, or in their own self-interest. Instead, they’d be commonizing components so that Agassi-style disruptors—start-ups in the nonexistent “business” of battery swapping—can literally leverage their way into their cars and multi-trillion-dollar industry; with robotic stations to jack up cars, switch out batteries, and take a cut of any profits. Any automaker invested in current EVs and the charging model would be cutting their own throat, and handing potential competitors the knife_.”


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## Dona Ferentes (1 April 2022)

Australia will send armoured troop carriers to Ukraine, ramping up the military aid it is providing the embattled country to stave off Russia’s invasion.

Prime Minister Scott Morrison said Australia would fulfil Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky’s plea, with the Bushmaster vehicles to be flown to Europe. He did not say how many would be deployed, although up to four can be delivered on each aircraft.



> “We will fly them over there in our C-17s to make sure they can be there to support [Ukraine],” Morrison said.


----------



## Craton (1 April 2022)

As each C17 can hold four Bushmasters, might take a few round trips eh.


> The vehicles are designed for all environments and are blast resistant.


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## Value Collector (1 April 2022)

Craton said:


> As each C17 can hold four Bushmasters, might take a few round trips eh.



We have 8 of the  C-17 aircraft in our airforce, so that’s 32 Bushmasters in the first round of flights.

I have no idea how many they are planning to send, but round trips taking 34 hours of flying probably 48 hours or so including loading and routine maintenance, they can more a lot of stuff from Australia to Ukraine in a short time.

An “Air Bridge” could be established with planes taking off every six hours, and like clock work planes with  equipment and supplies will be landing every six hours.


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## SirRumpole (2 April 2022)

Value Collector said:


> We have 8 of the  C-17 aircraft in our airforce, so that’s 32 Bushmasters in the first round of flights.
> 
> I have no idea how many they are planning to send, but round trips taking 34 hours of flying probably 48 hours or so including loading and routine maintenance, they can more a lot of stuff from Australia to Ukraine in a short time.
> 
> An “Air Bridge” could be established with planes taking off every six hours, and like clock work planes with  equipment and supplies will be landing every six hours.




You may not know this, but how many Bushmasters do we actually have, and about what percentage would we be willing to give away, possibly never to be seen again ?


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## Dona Ferentes (2 April 2022)

SirRumpole said:


> You may not know this, but how many Bushmasters do we actually have, and about what percentage would we be willing to give away, possibly never to be seen again ?




Retired Australian Army lieutenant general Peter Leahy says Australia has Bushmasters to spare.


> "We've got over 1,000 of them, in fact a number of them are surplus to requirement in the Australian Army, they're also used by the Air Force," he said. "Other countries have them in service in small numbers, but frankly we have more than we need."












						What is Australia's troop carrier the Bushmaster?
					

Volodymyr Zelenskyy's appeal for Australian-made armoured vehicles has been answered, with Prime Minister Scott Morrison confirming Bushmasters will be sent to join the fight against Russian forces.




					www.abc.net.au


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## SirRumpole (2 April 2022)

Dona Ferentes said:


> Retired Australian Army lieutenant general Peter Leahy says Australia has Bushmasters to spare.
> 
> 
> 
> ...



Thanks, I didn't know there were as common as muck, I thought that they may be as scarce as hen's teeth.


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## Dona Ferentes (2 April 2022)

SirRumpole said:


> Thanks, I didn't know there were as common as muck, I thought that they may be as scarce as hen's teeth.



Also, now the Hawkei development has advanced to production, there is a new generation truck in the planning stage, to replace the Bushmaster


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## Craton (2 April 2022)

FWIW: Wikipedia has good info re. both the Bushmaster and the Hawkei


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## Value Collector (2 April 2022)

SirRumpole said:


> You may not know this, but how many Bushmasters do we actually have, and about what percentage would we be willing to give away, possibly never to be seen again ?



The Australian army operates over 1000 Bushmasters, but they are built in Victoria, I would imagine what ever we “giveaway” would be replaced with new ones or something else fairly quickly.

I know the makers of the bushmaster want to establish export markets, this could be good advertising if they perform well, we might develop exports to Ukraine and other markets later because of this.


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## SirRumpole (2 April 2022)

Value Collector said:


> The Australian army operates over 1000 Bushmasters, but they are built in Victoria, I would imagine what ever we “giveaway” would be replaced with new ones or something else fairly quickly.
> 
> I know the makers of the bushmaster want to establish export markets, this could be good advertising if they perform well, we might develop exports to Ukraine and other markets later because of this.




Who said Australian manufacturing is dead ?


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## Value Collector (2 April 2022)

SirRumpole said:


> Who said Australian manufacturing is dead ?



As I said, we should focus on the areas we are good at, and people like our military equipment, we should export it.


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## SirRumpole (2 April 2022)

Value Collector said:


> As I said, we should focus on the areas we are good at, and people like our military equipment, we should export it.




If you never try something you never know if you are good at it.


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## JohnDe (2 April 2022)

Craton said:


> FWIW: Wikipedia has good info re. both the Bushmaster and the Hawkei




I saw 3 brand spanking new Hawkei’s refueling just outside of Bendigo. A very impressive looking military vehicle.


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## SirRumpole (2 April 2022)

JohnDe said:


> I saw 3 brand spanking new Hawkei’s refueling just outside of Bendigo. A very impressive looking military vehicle.
> 
> View attachment 139889




Just put electric motors and batteries in them, the public will lap them up.


----------



## Value Collector (2 April 2022)

SirRumpole said:


> If you never try something you never know if you are good at it.



I encourage entrepreneurs and investors to go out and try any business they feel they can succeed at.

I don’t think it’s a great idea to divert these entrepreneurs and investors away from other industries where they may build self sustaining industries into ones that require government support to exist to though. 

We have limited financial and human capital in Australia, we need to deploy it rationally.


----------



## SirRumpole (2 April 2022)

Value Collector said:


> I encourage entrepreneurs and investors to go out and try any business they feel they can succeed at.
> 
> I don’t think it’s a great idea to divert these entrepreneurs and investors away from other industries where they may build self sustaining industries into ones that require government support to exist to though.
> 
> We have limited financial and human capital in Australia, we need to deploy it rationally.




Yes, well the global economy could well be drawn on political lines in the future not economic ones and that injects a new set of criteria for the 'national interest'.


----------



## JohnDe (2 April 2022)

SirRumpole said:


> Just put electric motors and batteries in them, the public will lap them up.




If you’re into driving something with the bulk of a prime mover, go for it


----------



## SirRumpole (2 April 2022)

JohnDe said:


> If you’re into driving something with the bulk of a prime mover, go for it




No arguments about parking spots.


----------



## Value Collector (2 April 2022)

JohnDe said:


> I saw 3 brand spanking new Hawkei’s refueling just outside of Bendigo. A very impressive looking military vehicle.
> 
> View attachment 139889



I like the 45 degree angle on the windscreen, makes it a lot thicker and harder for a projectile to penetrate, also makes it more likely to ricochet off.


----------



## Dona Ferentes (2 April 2022)

SirRumpole said:


> Just put electric motors and batteries in them, the public will lap them up.



They are hybrid, can operate for 2 hours including movement, on battery power. As a fighting platform. with Vehicle Electronic Architecture, we'll be fighting with laptops and drones


----------



## SirRumpole (2 April 2022)

Value Collector said:


> I like the 45 degree angle on the windscreen, makes it a lot thicker and harder for a projectile to penetrate, also makes it more likely to ricochet off.




Armoured vehicle design 1.0 .


----------



## Value Collector (2 April 2022)

SirRumpole said:


> Armoured vehicle design 1.0 .



You would think so, but look at the windscreen of the Humvee (and so many others), even the bushmaster is only a 20 degree slope.


----------



## Smurf1976 (3 April 2022)

__





						Gazprom Halts Gas Shipments To Europe Via Critical Pipeline | ZeroHedge
					

ZeroHedge - On a long enough timeline, the survival rate for everyone drops to zero




					www.zerohedge.com
				






> Gazprom Halts Gas Shipments To Europe​




That sentence says it all. 

Assuming it's correct then the economic aspects of this just escalated significantly. 

LNG is already trading at extremely high prices on world markets, on an energy equivalent basis it's selling at roughly double the price of crude oil and over 3 times the price of coal, and there's seemingly no unused LNG production capacity anywhere. Now this....

The EU's idea to import LNG by ship doesn't work if there's no LNG available to load onto the ships.


----------



## waterbottle (3 April 2022)

Smurf1976 said:


> __
> 
> 
> 
> ...




Is there a non zero hedge source to back this up? This is huge for a region dependent on Russian energy...


----------



## Dona Ferentes (3 April 2022)

waterbottle said:


> Is there a non zero hedge source to back this up? This is huge for a region dependent on Russian energy...



I saw the 'source'. It's hardly news. 01 April was the day the Russians were demanding roubles for payment. They've been supplying " contract only, no spot sales" for months. It's all Argy bargy


----------



## Garpal Gumnut (3 April 2022)

Dona Ferentes said:


> I saw the 'source'. It's hardly news. 01 April was the day the Russians were demanding roubles for payment. They've been supplying " contract only, no spot sales" for months. It's all Argy bargy



This is typical European "stuff". 

They dragged Australia in to two world wars through imperialism and fascism. 

I couldn't give a rats about the leaders but have some pity for the civilians and conscripts and Ukranian soldiers. 

The West has its own Oligarchs who will decide when oil stops running from Russia to the West, particularly Germany. 

Any oil problems in Europe are a product of Merkel's amateurish reading of Putin. Let them burn U3cake. 

gg


----------



## Smurf1976 (3 April 2022)

waterbottle said:


> Is there a non zero hedge source to back this up? This is huge for a region dependent on Russian energy...



An interesting point.

I'm certainly not intending to spread fake news, stating that the flow of gas through a pipe has stopped is pretty clear and not something that can really be put down to misunderstanding of terminology etc, but perhaps it is indeed not really true?

I've spotted two other definitely fake items on the issue from a different perspective although in that case it was more about trickery than actual lies. Akin to "I don't get food from a farm, instead I buy it from a supermarket" type reasoning. Technically correct in a sense but not really.

If it's fake then my apologies but if we're at that point, outright lies, then the propaganda aspect of it's worse than I'd assumed.


----------



## Garpal Gumnut (3 April 2022)

Shocking War Crimes are being uncovered, committed by Russian forces as they retreat from Bukha.

Civilian rape, torture and executions. 






gg


----------



## Dona Ferentes (3 April 2022)

wait till the truth comes out about Mariupol, and the non-Russians in the Donbas.

Russia is an empire whose use-by date has long passed.


----------



## Garpal Gumnut (3 April 2022)

Dona Ferentes said:


> wait till the truth comes out about Mariupol, and the non-Russians in the Donbas.
> 
> Russia is an empire whose use-by date has long passed.



The talk in Warsaw is of preparations for a NATO solution to Putin's hegemony as soon as the Bucha atrocities are confirmed, Sunday their time. 

This is good as it will nip things in the bud, unlike when Hitler was allowed walk in to Czecho in 1939. 

I would agree with the Europeans that NATO have no other option than to take the fight up to Russia and liberate Donbas and Crimea as well for Ukraine. 

Now is the perfect time with Russian forces in disarray.   

gg


----------



## Stockbailx (5 April 2022)

Watched this video and couldn't help but notice on the map they showed the amount of NATO country's in green that could assist Ukraine  with air support to stop the bombing, troops and artillery to suppress the Russian advance and Ukraine would be liberated, with less destruction to their well being...Biden's influence over NATO had prevented this and Ukraine is in dire straits...Left out to dry?
Lithuania unlike Germany's position have cut ties with Russian gas...



.


----------



## UMike (5 April 2022)

This is the problem with making so public a show of arming all citizens to "fight" the invading armies.


----------



## Stockbailx (5 April 2022)

UMike said:


> This is the problem with making so public a show of arming all citizens to "fight" the invading armies.



Depends on who and what your rooting for, rather have the balls to fight for a legit course, then bend over to Putin!


----------



## JohnDe (5 April 2022)

Stockybailz said:


> Watched this video and couldn't help but notice on the map they showed the amount of NATO country's in green that could assist Ukraine  with air support to stop the bombing, troops and artillery to suppress the Russian advance and Ukraine would be liberated, with less destruction to their well being...Biden's influence over NATO had prevented this and Ukraine is in dire straits...Left out to dry?
> Lithuania unlike Germany's position have cut ties with Russian gas...
> 
> 
> ...





What would happen if those NATO countries did start shooting down Russian planes, and then Russia took that as a declaration of war and launched their nuclear missiles into those countries?


----------



## basilio (8 April 2022)

Garpal Gumnut said:


> The talk in Warsaw is of preparations for a NATO solution to Putin's hegemony as soon as the Bucha atrocities are confirmed, Sunday their time.
> 
> This is good as it will nip things in the bud, unlike when Hitler was allowed walk in to Czecho in 1939.
> 
> ...




Really ?  You reckon NATO should just roll through Ukraine and then into Russia to sort things out ?

Just M.A.D.  And that's not just my view.


----------



## basilio (8 April 2022)

The truly terrifying reality about the Ukraine war is the certainty of mass world starvation and the collapse/disintegration of many countries as food supplies rapidly dwindle.

Ukraine and Russia are major suppliers of the worlds grain. And there is no way these supplies or grain plantings will  happen in a war zone.

So I wonder exactly what is happening around the world to create new foods to  tackle the critical problems already evident.

*Bombing the world’s breadbasket*​


Wheat fields in midsummer (August) in Ukraine, Oblast Lviv *© Raimond Spekking / **CC BY-SA 4.0** (via Wikimedia Commons)*
For the past month, the world has watched in horror as civilians suffer and die in Ukraine. They are being shelled in their homes, sheltering in freezing basements, and fleeing under fire. Yet even as we try to support Ukrainians and end the war, we cannot forget the vulnerable elsewhere. The Russian invasion is causing pain far beyond Ukraine’s borders. A global hunger catastrophe is looming.


----------



## Garpal Gumnut (8 April 2022)

basilio said:


> Really ?  You reckon NATO should just roll through Ukraine and then into Russia to sort things out ?
> 
> Just M.A.D.  And that's not just my view.



No I don’t. 

Just read my post again. 

gg


----------



## Craton (8 April 2022)

basilio said:


> Really ?  You reckon NATO should just roll through Ukraine and then into Russia to sort things out ?
> 
> Just M.A.D.  And that's not just my view.



As mad as it may seem and no, not thinking about nukes but a solution must be found for Putin.

With the suspending of Russia from the UN Human Rights Council now just might be the time to resolve the headache created by this heartless thug.


----------



## basilio (8 April 2022)

Garpal Gumnut said:


> No I don’t.
> 
> Just read my post again.
> 
> gg




??? You must be very. very subtle there GG.  What you said was

*The talk in Warsaw is of preparations for a NATO solution to Putin's hegemony*_ as soon as the Bucha atrocities are confirmed, Sunday their time. _
This is good as it will nip things in the bud, unlike when Hitler was allowed walk in to Czecho in 1939.
*I would agree with the Europeans that NATO have no other option than to take the fight up to Russia and liberate Donbas and Crimea as well for Ukraine. *
Now is the perfect time with Russian forces in disarray.

As I read it
1)  You see NATO having  a (military) solution to Putins hegemony.
2)  You think NATO should send in sufficient military power to throw the Russian Army out of Donbas and Crimea

I think Russia would view  that action as an existential threat and go nuclear. M.A.D. scenario

* M.A.D. Mutually Assured Destruction. The current  nuclear stance of Russia and the West. If a nuclear war starts everyone goes up in smoke.


----------



## Dona Ferentes (8 April 2022)

first Bushmasters on their way. Some twenty going in total. A five day turn around for the C-17 uplift


----------



## Craton (8 April 2022)

I personally can't see the M.A.D option eventuating unless the head(s) of state are well and truly mad!

Even a small nuke war will cause much angst Calling any nuke war small, boggles the mind! 



> The bottom line remains that a war involving less than 1% of the world’s nuclear arsenal could shatter the planet’s food supplies.


----------



## Craton (8 April 2022)

Dona Ferentes said:


> first Bushmasters on their way. Some twenty going in total. A five day turn around for the C-17 uplift



Yep and includes two fitted out as ambulances.


----------



## Garpal Gumnut (8 April 2022)

basilio said:


> ??? You must be very. very subtle there GG.  What you said was
> 
> *The talk in Warsaw is of preparations for a NATO solution to Putin's hegemony*_ as soon as the Bucha atrocities are confirmed, Sunday their time. _
> This is good as it will nip things in the bud, unlike when Hitler was allowed walk in to Czecho in 1939.
> ...



There is zero chance of Putin using nuclear weapons. 

He is a player. 

Surrounded by players. 

gg


----------



## Dona Ferentes (8 April 2022)

Please don't suffer from 'war fatigue' , especially from the comfort of [y]our safe homes.

Some _naif _posts pictures of queues of civilians at a railway station, and the animals send in missiles.

_"Slava Ukrayini!” “Heroyam Slava!"_


----------



## Telamelo (9 April 2022)

Garpal Gumnut said:


> There is zero chance of Putin using nuclear weapons.
> 
> He is a player.
> 
> ...



Sorry I disagree as think Putin most likely will use nuclear weapons if he's pressured/threatened in any way. He has made it clear that whoever steps into this Ukraine conflict directly against Russia will pay the price/suffer the consequences.


----------



## philliplee (9 April 2022)

Well-pointed😉 more precisely: military industrial complex, oil/gas companies and wall st


----------



## Craton (9 April 2022)

Telamelo said:


> Sorry I disagree as think Putin most likely will use nuclear weapons if he's pressured/threatened in any way. He has made it clear that whoever steps into this Ukraine conflict directly against Russia will pay the price/suffer the consequences.



Just another of his growing number of lies, nothing more than a poker bluff.

The West's/Europe's problem is the heavy reliance on Russia's energy. If NATO moves into Ukraine, guess who's gonna turn the tap off long before any launch button is pushed.

Make no mistake, any power with nuclear capability knows that even limited nuke use in any armed conflict will have dire consequences. Putin may be a heartless evil bugger but he's not that dumb.


----------



## Garpal Gumnut (9 April 2022)

basilio said:


> ??? You must be very. very subtle there GG.  What you said was
> 
> *The talk in Warsaw is of preparations for a NATO solution to Putin's hegemony*_ as soon as the Bucha atrocities are confirmed, Sunday their time. _
> This is good as it will nip things in the bud, unlike when Hitler was allowed walk in to Czecho in 1939.
> ...





Telamelo said:


> Sorry I disagree as think Putin most likely will use nuclear weapons if he's pressured/threatened in any way. He has made it clear that whoever steps into this Ukraine conflict directly against Russia will pay the price/suffer the consequences.



In my original post above I suggested that now is the time for the NATO allies to enter Ukraine and push the fascist forces of Russia back to their original borders beyond Crimea and Donbas. 

Any less outcome will be a victory for Putin. 

Nuclear war is a possibility not only in Ukraine and the adjacent Russian republics but also in Korea, Taiwan, and the Middle East to name but a few. It is a daily risk, only brought to our attention by some prescient commentators and a gutter press out to sell click space on their masthead sites. 

It is my belief that we are in a situation similar to that in 1938-1939 where Hitler was allowed enter Czechoslovakia to begin his totalitarian destruction of European minority groups driven by a hegemonous ideology. Putin is of a similar ilk, he even has his own Godbotherer the Archwhatever Kirril who with his Rolex watch has anointed this war as being a just war for Russia. 

Should Putin not be stopped now, when he is at his weakest, he will slowly move West next on to adjacent republics to Ukraine on the pretext of protecting his new borders and liberating "minorities". 

I have experienced the destruction of war. It is not nice to put it mildly. You see it daily on TV, but what you don't experience is the sense of destruction, the human loss and suffering, and the pervasive smell of smoke and sh*t. 

Sometimes force needs to be met with force. 

Leave Russia to expand today and in one, two or three years, it will expand further. 

gg


----------



## gartley (9 April 2022)

An interesting opinion from the other side:

https://www.globaltimes.cn/page/202204/1258861.shtml


----------



## rederob (9 April 2022)

gartley said:


> An interesting opinion from the other side:
> 
> https://www.globaltimes.cn/page/202204/1258861.shtml



About the only part the Russian author got wrong was the role of the Azov battalion.  
The false spectre of Nazism used by Russia is somewhat equal to Dutton's claims of Chinese *aggression*.  In other words, it does not take a lot for a nation to spin an idea that "sounds" credible but has no real world basis when viewed objectively.

Ukraine stands as a bulwark against Russian expansion, and NATO - the US in particular - have done their very best to *not *support it.  Instead it's being being played as a sacrificial pawn in a chess game where the the defenders have to keep paying the attackers (for oil/gas) or their position is weakened.  The battlefield in this case is subservient to money, and the pretext of sanctions as a means of defense is a bluff that Putin has seen through while continuing to fill his coffers.  So what if some Russians suffer ... did Stalin ever care!  Putin's popularity in Russia is still on the rise as he insists his suppression of Nazism is necessary.


----------



## JohnDe (9 April 2022)

> I AM WRITING this essay as the world has woken up to the horrific scenes from Irpin and Bucha, suburbs of Kyiv in Ukraine. We see pictures of mass graves and civilians murdered by Russian troops. These photos remind Estonians of the killings by the Soviet regime and the NKVD, its law-enforcement ministry. Its machine of state terror murdered civilians in exactly the same way. Deportations and filtration camps take me and every other Estonian family back to painful memories of repression under Soviet occupation and of Gulag prison camps.
> 
> Placing civilians at the frontline is a Russian war tactic. The proof? There are more civilian victims than there are military casualties—especially if you consider that it’s not accidental that a quarter of Ukraine’s population has been forced to flee from their homes or that Russia has engineered humanitarian catastrophes in cities such as Mariupol. Targeting civilians is a war crime according to international law. Ukraine is not a battlefield; it’s a crime scene. So too were Rwanda and Srebrenica.
> 
> ...












						Kaja Kallas on the atrocities in Ukraine
					

Estonia’s prime minister argues that although the Soviet Union collapsed, its imperialist ideology never did




					www.economist.com


----------



## Stockbailx (9 April 2022)

Telamelo said:


> Sorry I disagree as think Putin most likely will use nuclear weapons if he's pressured/threatened in any way. He has made it clear that whoever steps into this Ukraine conflict directly against Russia will pay the price/suffer the consequences.



The facts in life are simply live and live! @Garpal Gumnut said Putins a player. I've got a lot more respect for the Ukrainian people and way of life and they deserve better. Sit there and talk about it why Ukraine suffer, is not applicable in my book.
 The longer you let Putin play his game of chaos, the worst the nuclear threat becomes as he builds confidence. Got to nip that theory of nukes in the bud, and take him down. Bidens ( cowardness ) influence doesn't help either...You could almost say its to late, for human rights. Put Putin down and liberate Ukraine. And the free world for that matter...
Its a bit edgy but have a war based on disabling the nuclear thread is better then no war at all... who's cooking what, get out of the kitchen Putin...Biden get your finger off the button your not getting any. Or is it the other way around..Liberate Ukraine!


----------



## moXJO (9 April 2022)

I am seeing more indicators of a military solution being used. 
Europe is sending heavier weapons. 
Talking points/propaganda in media are used to stoke hatred of all Russians or the west (and its working).
Support is becoming more overt.


I'm sure Patton wanted to roll through Russia after Germany because "The Russians would eventually become a problem".
I'm wondering if they are thinking of rolling through China after Russia before they become a larger problem.


----------



## gartley (9 April 2022)

I don't know who is worse, a geriatric as the leader of the free world or Putin....
 "I was in the foothills of the Himalayas with Xi Jinping, traveling with him, that's when I traveled 17,000 miles when I was Vice President. I don't know that for a fact."
View attachment BIDEN_ _I was in the the foothills of the Himalaya (1).mp4


----------



## gartley (9 April 2022)

moXJO said:


> Europe is sending heavier weapons.




Recently I saw pictures of Soviet era heavy weapons such as T72 tanks being transported by train from Eastern European countries. This suggests theat Ukranian Army probably has lost a lot of armour.
My gut feeling is that Scomo's Bushmasters  (if they ever make it there) will are destined to be sold on the Russian scrap metal market.....


----------



## JohnDe (9 April 2022)

gartley said:


> I don't know who is worse, a geriatric as the leader of the free world or Putin....




Seriously? 

Regardless of what The US president says, he is not a war mongering psychopath.

Putin will now go down in history as a war criminal, a mad man, a liar, a fraud, a murder, an insane leader of a blind nation, and the leader that brought his own country to ruin.


----------



## Knobby22 (9 April 2022)

I think it's time for a diplomatic solution backed by the threat of NATO entering more directly in the war if a compromise isn't reached.


----------



## gartley (9 April 2022)

JohnDe said:


> Seriously?
> 
> Regardless of what The US president says, he is not a war mongering psychopath.



That he isn't...... as he can't even string a sentence together. Don't fear him, fear psychopaths pulling his strings..
His predecessors since 2000 different story!!!
The lies and deception leading up to the second invasion of Iraq as well as deaths of 200,000 ppl as a result. The bombing by NATO in Sarajevo, Afghanistan.....


----------



## Stockbailx (9 April 2022)

Knobby22 said:


> I think it's time for a diplomatic solution backed by the threat of NATO entering more directly in the war if a compromise isn't reached.



Better than nothing! Ukraine shouldn't suffer anymore. The ironary of a diplomatic world like NATO letting a pin heads like Putin conger a free nation is against everything NATO stands for. Disturbed by Biden's influence, the old bitch couldn't fight his way out of a wet paper towel. he's intel is corrupt and bogus just like him! If only there was something I could do personally...


----------



## Craton (9 April 2022)

Stockybailz said:


> Better than nothing! Ukraine shouldn't suffer anymore. The ironary of a diplomatic world like NATO letting a pin heads like Putin conger a free nation is against everything NATO stands for. Disturbed by Biden's influence, the old bitch couldn't fight his way out of a wet paper towel. he's intel is corrupt and bogus just like him! If only there was something I could do personally...



NATO structure:


----------



## moXJO (9 April 2022)

If LePen clinches it in France, things may go very different for nato


----------



## Stockbailx (9 April 2022)

Craton said:


> NATO structure:




Bigger then Ben Her. Take Russia down, so the free world can live...Liberate Ukraine!


----------



## moXJO (9 April 2022)

Stockybailz said:


> Bigger then Ben Her. Take Russia down, so the free world can live...Liberate Ukraine!



I'm sure a report showed that Brits and NATO allies without the US would struggle. Something about lack of long range and ammunitions.


----------



## gartley (9 April 2022)

basilio said:


> The truly terrifying reality about the Ukraine war is the certainty of mass world starvation and the collapse/disintegration of many countries as food supplies rapidly dwindle.
> 
> Ukraine and Russia are major suppliers of the worlds grain. And there is no way these supplies or grain plantings will  happen in a war zone.
> 
> ...




I think together they account for approximately 15% of the worlds wheat supplies. It's a big hit, especially in the poorer not so developed countries. On top of this Russia also supplies most of the worlds fertilizer so difficult times coming unless other countries step up to fill the void....


----------



## Knobby22 (9 April 2022)

Stockybailz said:


> Better than nothing! Ukraine shouldn't suffer anymore. The ironary of a diplomatic world like NATO letting a pin heads like Putin conger a free nation is against everything NATO stands for. Disturbed by Biden's influence, the old bitch couldn't fight his way out of a wet paper towel. he's intel is corrupt and bogus just like him! If only there was something I could do personally...



Germany and Austria are the worst. They are limiting sanctions and just stop any action. That's the trouble with having too many countries in an organisation.

Similarly the UN can't act as China has a casting vote.

I don't see how the USA can go straight into an European war on its own but maybe there is a way. Do you think Biden should start using missiles?


----------



## 3 hound (9 April 2022)

Knobby22 said:


> Do you think Biden should start using missiles?




No absolutely nobody should think that.  Did you miss the war in Afghanistan? The US failed against literal primitive goat herders living in caves using hand me down weapons.


----------



## Dona Ferentes (9 April 2022)

3 hound said:


> No absolutely nobody should think that.  Did you miss the war in Afghanistan? The US failed against literal primitive goat herders living in caves using hand me down weapons.



Ease up on the stereotypes, pal !


----------



## Garpal Gumnut (9 April 2022)

NATO has never been really tested. The Europeans have been led by a ragtag mob of political elites since WW2. They too have their own Oligarchs through corruption and jobs for insiders. Even Australia is developing a “Political Class” and Roogarchs from years of Liberal and Labor Corruption. 

Putin is Old KGB. Always has been. Still is. He knows the West’s weaknesses. Corruption on one side and Snowflakes on the other. 

I would hope that a strong military response by NATO and its allies might hobble Putin and lead to a more fair Europe. I’m not holding my breath though. 

Even for Australia an intervention now by NATO with US support would be a outcome better for Australia. It would be a signal to China that this far is far enough. 

gg


----------



## 3 hound (9 April 2022)

Garpal Gumnut said:


> Even for Australia an intervention now by NATO with US support would be a outcome better for Australia. It would be a signal to China that this far is far enough.





Or the US gets tangled up in a shooting war with Russia and China takes it as the perfect opportunity to further and strengthen its position and dominance in Taiwan, Africa, the Pacific.... and so on. Like it did throughout our entire excursion in Iraq and Afghanistan.


----------



## rederob (9 April 2022)

Garpal Gumnut said:


> I would hope that a strong military response by NATO and its allies might hobble Putin and lead to a more fair Europe. I’m not holding my breath though.



Nothing prevents NATO becoming a de facto UN and beginning a "peace keeping" function which can be rolled out progressively from west to east.
In carrying out this role they simply rely on a *no fly over* for areas they progressively protect, and only engage the Russians if directly attacked.
If the Russians were concerned about it serving any other purpose they could embed their own officers.  In fact, it would be preferable they did from the outset as that would also allow them to weed out the Nazis with help from NATO.


----------



## Smurf1976 (9 April 2022)

Craton said:


> The West's/Europe's problem is the heavy reliance on Russia's energy.



I'll simply say I just don't get how anyone in the West, referring to leaders and so on, can possibly say they didn't know this decades ago.

Energy is the master resource without which all others are useless. Cut-offs of energy supply aren't exactly unprecedented indeed there's been quite a few occasions where putting the lights out and stopping the wheels of industry has been the tactic used to force someone's hand over an unrelated issue either domestic or international.

It does make me angry that these clowns pretend they somehow didn't know.


----------



## Garpal Gumnut (9 April 2022)

3 hound said:


> Or the US gets tangled up in a shooting war with Russia and China takes it as the perfect opportunity to further and strengthen its position and dominance in Taiwan, Africa, the Pacific.... and so on. Like it did throughout our entire excursion in Iraq and Afghanistan.



The Chinese imo are not ready to take Taiwan. 

They will one day if only to neutralise a powerful force close offshore if there is internal dissent in China or a chance of internal opposition to the CPC. 

gg


----------



## Craton (10 April 2022)

Smurf1976 said:


> I'll simply say I just don't get how anyone in the West, referring to leaders and so on, can possibly say they didn't know this decades ago.
> 
> Energy is the master resource without which all others are useless*.* Cut-offs of energy supply aren't exactly unprecedented indeed there's been quite a few occasions where putting the lights out and stopping the wheels of industry has been the tactic used to force someone's hand over an unrelated issue either domestic or international.
> 
> It does make me angry that these clowns pretend they somehow didn't know.




Wasn't this a plot in many-a-film, in particular the 007 film, The World Is Not Enough?


----------



## Smurf1976 (10 April 2022)

Craton said:


> Wasn't this a plot in many-a-film, in particular the 007 film, The World Is Not Enough?



I'm not familiar with the film but the basic concept has historically been _the_ reason anyone saw energy as something worth worrying about.

Even within countries that has been the case. Plenty of coal miners' strikes  around the world over the years for example then there's things like the Oil Embargo. Even within Australia energy has been weaponised in the past either state versus state or workers and unions versus government.

That energy's such a vulnerability comes down to two basic things. First that it's the master resource, if you don't have energy then that immediately renders just about all other resources useless and second because in the case of gas and oil in particular they're physically somewhat difficult to store, they can't just be piled up on the ground or shoved into any random warehouse, meaning that the stock on hand tends to be pretty limited.

So I do find it all rather disappointing on the part of the West with the EU in particular having gotten itself into a situation that wasn't just foreseeable, it was actually foreseen by more than a few. It's something they've no excuse to not know - France's nuclear power came about as a direct response to concerns about the vulnerability of fuel imports meanwhile the headquarters of OPEC is in Vienna.

Hence my disappointment. EU leaders ignoring this is akin to a ship captain somehow missing the point that the ship can't go on land, it's rather fundamental stuff. Pardon my frustration but it seems like the West is being run by fools.....


----------



## JohnDe (10 April 2022)

Knobby22 said:


> I don't see how the USA can go straight into an European war on its own but maybe there is a way. Do you think Biden should start using missiles?




If the USA start using missiles to shoot down Russian aircraft, could Putin call this an act of aggression and a declaration of war, and use nuclear weapons against US bases in Europe?


----------



## Stockbailx (10 April 2022)

@JohnDe You need stress relief!?%$*&^Don't play by Putins rules, he's a insidious mongrel. Couldn't give him time of day!


----------



## JohnDe (10 April 2022)

Stockybailz said:


> @JohnDe You need stress relief!?%$*&^




Why, because I ask the question that intelligent people know to be an issue, while the trigger happy few spout delusions of sending in the calvary with no consequences?


----------



## 3 hound (10 April 2022)

Stockybailz said:


> @JohnDe You need stress relief!?%$*&^Don't play by Putins rules, he's a insidious mongrel. Couldn't give him time of day!



You are more than welcome to back up your convictions and be a volunteer soldier for Ukraine just leave the rest of us out of it thanks.

If Putin invades Australia then I will be more concerned about fighting him. But you do what you feel you need to do.


----------



## JohnDe (10 April 2022)

3 hound said:


> You are more than welcome to back up your convictions and be a volunteer soldier for Ukraine just leave the rest of us out of it thanks.




Hi hound, interesting to see you in a new profile.


----------



## 3 hound (10 April 2022)

JohnDe said:


> Hi hound, interesting to see you in a new profile.



??


----------



## gartley (10 April 2022)

rederob said:


> About the only part the Russian author got wrong was the role of the Azov battalion.
> The false spectre of Nazism used by Russia



For them Nazism is not a false sprectre. Having visited there a number of times and seeing how they celebrate "Victory Day" and the defeat of Nazi Germany even 77 years later it's ingrained into them.
Interestingly however, last December the US and Ukraine where the only two countries to vote against a UN adopted anti Nazi resolution and this was the second time thr other being in 2016. Now why would that be?
Clearly this is not a new Russian concern as the US has had it's people on the ground in the Ukraine since 2014.



US, Ukraine vote against anti-Nazism UNGA resolution​The United States, which has long championed "human rights," voted against a resolution to combat the glorification of Nazism, neo-Nazism, and xenophobia.
english.almayadeen.net


Bioweapons Expert Speaks Out About US Biolabs in Ukraine​Francis Boyle, Ph.D., recently spoke about the Russian government's claim that the US funded bioweapons research in Ukraine. Here's the interview.
articles.mercola.com

For the last number of years in particular the Western MSM has been not very reliable and one needs to look further do their own research


----------



## rederob (10 April 2022)

gartley said:


> For them Nazism is not a false sprectre. Having visited there a number of times and seeing how they celebrate "Victory Day" and the defeat of Nazi Germany even 77 years later it's ingrained into them.
> Interestingly however, last December the US and Ukraine where the only two countries to vote against a UN adopted anti Nazi resolution and this was the second time the other being in 2016. Now why would that be?
> Clearly this is not a new Russian concern as the US has had it's people on the ground in the Ukraine since 2014.



There were good *reasons*.
Also, where was Australia?


The irony of Russia's position is that the Ukranian President is a Jew!



gartley said:


> Bioweapons Expert Speaks Out About US Biolabs in Ukraine
> Francis Boyle, Ph.D., recently spoke about the Russian government's claim that the US funded bioweapons research in Ukraine. Here's the interview.
> articles.mercola.com



I would not give an iota of credibility to either Mercola or Boyle who, incidentally, is a lawyer and has no bioweapons expertise.


----------



## gartley (10 April 2022)

rederob said:


> There were good *reasons*.
> Also, where was Australia?
> View attachment 140213
> 
> ...



*Australia *​Although no official statement has been made, in line with the Foreign Policy White Paper and traditional policy direction, Australia acts along with its allies and like-minded partners within the international organizations to advance its interests and support US global leadership, especially in the areas of human rights, trade, terrorism, security, refugees, and strengthening of rules-based order.

More importantly, problems with free speech protections and restrictions on other fundamental rights in this particular resolution, very likely, make it impossible for Australia to support it. Australia is a party to seven core international human rights treaties and has a relatively good track record on free speech.


Free speech in Australia? You are joking aren't you..... Look what has been happening in Australia the last 3 years


----------



## Telamelo (10 April 2022)

Putin won't hesitate to use nuclear weapons against Europe or any other country for that matter if they confront/strike Russia directly - I don't condone the use of nuclear weapons or any conflict/war for that matter. War is not the solution. 
------------

The US detonated two nuclear weapons over the Japanese cities of Hiroshima and Nagasaki on *6th & 9th August 1945*, respectively. The two bombings killed between 129,000 and 226,000 people, most of whom were civilians, and remain the only use of nuclear weapons in armed conflict.

Was the US ever taken to the human rights/international tribunal to answer for these atrocities ? curious to know as I've never really taken much interest in history & war's as such


----------



## Craton (10 April 2022)

Smurf1976 said:


> I'm not familiar with the film but the basic concept has historically been _the_ reason anyone saw energy as something worth worrying about.
> 
> Even within countries that has been the case. Plenty of coal miners' strikes  around the world over the years for example then there's things like the Oil Embargo. Even within Australia energy has been weaponised in the past either state versus state or workers and unions versus government.



The 007 film mentioned uses the weaponised theme:


> Bond flies to Azerbaijan, where Elektra is overseeing the construction of an oil pipeline.



Further into the film:


> Back in Azerbaijan, Bond warns M that Elektra may not be as innocent as she appears, and hands her the locator card as proof of the theft. An alarm sounds, revealing that the stolen bomb from Kazakhstan is attached to a pipeline inspection pig heading towards the oil terminal. Bond and Jones enter the pipeline to deactivate the bomb, and Jones discovers that half of the plutonium is missing.





Smurf1976 said:


> That energy's such a vulnerability comes down to two basic things. First that it's the master resource, if you don't have energy then that immediately renders just about all other resources useless and second because in the case of gas and oil in particular they're physically somewhat difficult to store, they can't just be piled up on the ground or shoved into any random warehouse, meaning that the stock on hand tends to be pretty limited.
> 
> So I do find it all rather disappointing on the part of the West with the EU in particular having gotten itself into a situation that wasn't just foreseeable, it was actually foreseen by more than a few. It's something they've no excuse to not know - France's nuclear power came about as a direct response to concerns about the vulnerability of fuel imports meanwhile the headquarters of OPEC is in Vienna.
> 
> Hence my disappointment. EU leaders ignoring this is akin to a ship captain somehow missing the point that the ship can't go on land, it's rather fundamental stuff. Pardon my frustration but it seems like the West is being run by fools.....



As disappointing as the EU energy reliance is, I'd assume that the situation came about with the desire and a path for peace, placating Putin via trade and thus economic means. In hindsight, we can see now that any diplomacy on Putin's part was just a ruse and it's apparent that he has a much larger stomach for aggression and hence, war than the EU.

However, I do agree that there should've been a lot more foresight and planning in the event in this very situation.

As you say, it's a master resource and as per the IEA, that there is still a substaintial reserve in eastern Ukraine. The very the reason Crimea was annexed. Surely this fact alone should've been a wake up call for the EU and NATO partners!!!


----------



## Craton (10 April 2022)

JohnDe said:


> If the USA start using missiles to shoot down Russian aircraft, could Putin call this an act of aggression and a declaration of war, and use nuclear weapons against US bases in Europe?



Why would the USA start shooting (and just) at Russian aircraft?
Putin doesn't need that to happen to declare war, he already has. History will recall the Hitler called his 1939-40 invasions, "special military operations" and look what that led to.

So, what would happen if Putin started sending nukes into any base in Europe, will WW3 erupt?
It's all stops out to avoid that but if, *if*, Putin does then it could very well be the trigger that ignites the powder keg of tensions that seem to be so pervasive around the world at present.
Europe, Indo-China, Taiwan, South China Sea et al.

The question one needs to ask is, do the powers that be have an appetite for all the consequences of a nuclear war?


----------



## Craton (10 April 2022)

Telamelo said:


> Putin won't hesitate to use nuclear weapons against Europe or any other country for that matter if they confront/strike Russia directly - I don't condone the use of nuclear weapons or any conflict/war for that matter. War is not the solution.
> ------------
> 
> The US detonated two nuclear weapons over the Japanese cities of Hiroshima and Nagasaki on *6th & 9th August 1945*, respectively. The two bombings killed between 129,000 and 226,000 people, most of whom were civilians, and remain the only use of nuclear weapons in armed conflict.
> ...



Wikipedia:



> On July 26, 1945, the United States, the United Kingdom, and the Republic of China issued a Potsdam Declaration that called for the unconditional surrender of Japan. It stated that if Japan did not surrender, it would face "prompt and utter destruction".[29][30] The Japanese government ignored this ultimatum, sending a message that they were not going to surrender. In response to the rejection, President Truman authorized the dropping of the atomic bombs.



Note those two very important words, "unconditional surrender".


----------



## JohnDe (10 April 2022)

Craton said:


> Why would the USA start shooting (and just) at Russian aircraft?
> Putin doesn't need that to happen to declare war, he already has. History will recall the Hitler called his 1939-40 invasions, "special military operations" and look what that led to.
> 
> So, what would happen if Putin started sending nukes into any base in Europe, will WW3 erupt?
> ...



 There are smarter ways than the one you are emphasising.


----------



## Craton (10 April 2022)

JohnDe said:


> There are smarter ways than the one you are emphasising



What am I emphasizing?
You asked, I gave a reply. Unlike your throw away one liners. Of course there are smarter ways than tossing nukes around...


----------



## JohnDe (10 April 2022)

Craton said:


> What am I emphasizing?
> You asked, I gave a reply. Unlike your throw away one liners. Of course there are smarter ways than tossing nukes around...




I count three question marks in your reply, which really makes it a question 🙋‍♂️


----------



## 3 hound (10 April 2022)

Craton said:


> What am I emphasizing?
> You asked, I gave a reply. Unlike your throw away one liners. Of course there are smarter ways than tossing nukes around...




I honestly don't know enough about Russia/Ukraine/NATO history to argue strongly any way but I do feel from what little I know that if euro stopped encroaching on Russia thru Ukraine then there would be no war currently in Ukraine....and why the encroachment? Because oil, commodities and resources.

Appreciate your thoughts on this take.


----------



## JohnDe (10 April 2022)

3 hound said:


> I honestly don't know enough about Russia/Ukraine/NATO history to argue strongly any way but I do feel from what little I know that if euro stopped encroaching on Russia thru Ukraine then there would be no war currently in Ukraine....and why the encroachment? Because oil, commodities and resources.
> 
> Appreciate your thoughts on this take.




Like you said “I honestly don't know enough about Russia/Ukraine/NATO history to argue strongly any way”. Very true. There is a lot more information available that you will need to read up on.


----------



## Stockbailx (10 April 2022)

The yellow cake making things very difficult for Ukraine. My message for the insidious Putin, is he should eat it too. The longer Putin gets away with his threat and scares the Likes of Biden and NATO and the free world. The worse he's dominance will become. I feel very sorry for that fact and hope Ukraine can conquer the Russian invasion with the support of allies and supply's. 

 i still would prefer a piece keeping force on land and sky over the borders of Ukraine, that insure supply's are meet and sent. Creeping into the Russian advance. To eventually find and destroy Putin and his USSR regime. 

Put a end to the theory of nuke's in war time. And maybe the likes of Biden could learn from this? Pretty frustrating situation, but what more could you do, but put a end to the super powers that carry the bomb like Russia and the US. Deafinetly say no to the so called cold war where the nukes are manipulated into supply. That's just my opinion...


----------



## Craton (10 April 2022)

3 hound said:


> I honestly don't know enough about Russia/Ukraine/NATO history to argue strongly any way but I do feel from what little I know that if euro stopped encroaching on Russia thru Ukraine then there would be no war currently in Ukraine....and why the encroachment? Because oil, commodities and resources.
> 
> Appreciate your thoughts on this take.



Broadly, in modern times since WWII there was the Cold War and the so-called Iron Curtain between the then, communist USSR (Union of Soviet Socialist Republics) and the West. Ukraine (like so many other countries) was part of the USSR. Putin is ex KGB and from that old USSR too.

With the advent of Perestroika and  glasnost within the USSR in the 80's culminating in the collapse of the USSR/Iron Curtain in 1991, allowed former countries swallowed up into the USSR like Poland, Hungary, Lativa, Estonia, Ukraine and many more etc to break from Soviet Russian rule and regain sovereignty.
Glasnost or "openness" was seen as a sign that Russia moving towards a more accessible and West friendly regime. The threat of nuclear war seemed over and the world breathed a collective sigh of relief.

There is more to it than that of course with Crimea playing a part e.g. being transferred to Ukraine SSR in 1954.

Anyway, it's not about the West encroaching on Russia, it's quite the opposite thanks to Putin's ideology. Besides that, NATO is not pushing to have Ukraine join, in fact there are strict conditions that must be met before Ukraine, or any country, can become a member. Putin has done everything in his power, thanks to his Crimea invasion back in 2014, to successfully stop Ukraine from being accepted into NATO.

The threat is not from the West, it's from the East!

NATO:


> NATO constitutes a system of collective security, whereby its independent member states agree to mutual defense in response to an attack by any external party. It was established during the Cold War in response to the threat posed by the Soviet Union. The alliance has remained in place since the dissolution of the Soviet Union, and has been involved in military operations in the Balkans, the Middle East, South Asia, and Africa.


----------



## 3 hound (10 April 2022)

Craton said:


> Broadly, in modern times since WWII there was the Cold War and the so-called Iron Curtain between the then, communist USSR (Union of Soviet Socialist Republics) and the West. Ukraine (like so many other countries) was part of the USSR. Putin is ex KGB and from that old USSR too.
> 
> With the advent of Perestroika and  glasnost within the USSR in the 80's culminating in the collapse of the USSR/Iron Curtain in 1991, allowed former countries swallowed up into the USSR like Poland, Hungary, Lativa, Estonia, Ukraine and many more etc to break from Soviet Russian rule and regain sovereignty.
> Glasnost or "openness" was seen as a sign that Russia moving towards a more accessible and West friendly regime. The threat of nuclear war seemed over and the world breathed a collective sigh of relief.
> ...



That's all well and good but NATO was not to move one inch into Ukraine but clearly euro has encroached. The only logical reason is presumably the same old story: access to oil, commodities, resources.

The Ukrainians that have commented on some gaming forums I am on have a different take on it, seems Ukraine is a bunch of different regions that don't get along with pro-west elements being extremely violent toward other Ukrainians and in fact democratically elected Ukraine president were toppled by western friendly essentially dictators. 

I don't know the full story but I doubt the full story is what you see on the western my media. Since Vietnam, Iraq and Afghanistan is sufficient to have not believe a word our media tells us and that is indisputable fact.


----------



## JohnDe (10 April 2022)

NATO's origin explained

CNN's Bianca Nobilo takes a look at the origin of the North Atlantic Treaty Organization, or NATO, and its role in the Russia-Ukraine tensions.


----------



## Craton (10 April 2022)

@3 hound, I'm not going to quote and respond to your post per se, I'll say this though.

No doubt there are pro-Russian supporters just like there's anti-vaxxers here, they are all very vocal and some, really know how to stretch the truth.

Facts are that Putin has been closing up Russia for his own cronyism ever since he became president and the West isn't the one threatening the use of nukes.

Here, you are lawfully free to believe and do what you will, seems to me that is far better than what Putin's Russia is offering Ukraine.


----------



## 3 hound (10 April 2022)

You


Craton said:


> @3 hound, I'm not going to quote and respond to your post per se, I'll say this though.
> 
> No doubt there are pro-Russian supporters just like there's anti-vaxxers here, they are all very vocal and some, really know how to stretch the truth.
> 
> ...




You are pretty sure of yourself that you have the correct take on things.

No offence but I am always dubious about people that are convinced they have the correct take on deeply complex geo-political issues.

How you wound ant-vax in there is impressive.

I just know there are a lot of Aussies that a month ago didn't know Ukraine from from their butthole but it hits the news and viola, they are instant experts.


----------



## Dona Ferentes (10 April 2022)

Just an observation to some;  It's Aussie Shares Forum not _Aussie *Shrills *Forum._


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## Garpal Gumnut (10 April 2022)

Dona Ferentes said:


> Just an observation to some;  It's Aussie Shares Forum not _Aussie *Shrills *Forum._





3 hound said:


> You
> 
> You are pretty sure of yourself that you have the correct take on things.
> 
> ...





JohnDe said:


> Why, because I ask the question that intelligent people know to be an issue, while the trigger happy few spout delusions of sending in the calvary with no consequences?






JohnDe said:


> Hi hound, interesting to see you in a new profile.




Thanks @Dona Ferentes . I have tried to keep my wellies clean and not covered in sh*t by not wading in to @3 hound and @JohnDe 's pointed lectures to us all on geopolitical matters. They sound like quite the virtuosos with a less than sesquipedalian scattergun approach to debate.

The existing members of ASF have learnt much from those who have migrated from the Commsec forum, which I have been told died because of ad hominem attacks by posters. ( attacking the person not the ball ).

As Ricky Gervais would say, nobody gives a rats what anyone on this thread thinks about Ukraine and Putin's fascist, hegemenous attack on that country. We are all just here because we enjoy the conversation and learning from others about a faraway country being pillaged by an aggressive empire. And we have opinions. Now it is within a person's rights to disagree with my views and I am sure some of the transgressors against couth on this thread will be busily checking my posts to fling some faeces in my direction, but hey, that's their right, but it is poor ASF decorum, of which even I have at times been guilty. 

gg


----------



## 3 hound (10 April 2022)

Garpal Gumnut said:


> Thanks @Dona Ferentes . I have tried to keep my wellies clean and not covered in sh*t by not wading in to @3 hound and @JohnDe 's pointed lectures to us all on geopolitical matters. They sound like quite the virtuosos with a less than sesquipedalian scattergun approach to debate.
> 
> The existing members of ASF have learnt much from those who have migrated from the Commsec forum, which I have been told died because of ad hominem attacks by posters. ( attacking the person not the ball ).
> 
> ...



Hypocrite, your whole post was a scatter gun ad hominem attack.


----------



## Garpal Gumnut (10 April 2022)

3 hound said:


> Hypocrite, your whole post was a scatter gun ad hominem attack.



As Corporal Jones in Dad's Army famously said.

" They don't like it up 'em."

gg


----------



## JohnDe (10 April 2022)

Garpal Gumnut said:


> Thanks @Dona Ferentes . I have tried to keep my wellies clean and not covered in sh*t by not wading in to @3 hound and @JohnDe 's pointed lectures to us all on geopolitical matters. They sound like quite the virtuosos with a less than sesquipedalian scattergun approach to debate.
> 
> The existing members of ASF have learnt much from those who have migrated from the Commsec forum, which I have been told died because of ad hominem attacks by posters. ( attacking the person not the ball ).
> 
> ...




🎶 🎻


----------



## Stockbailx (10 April 2022)

If only any of you made sense, stay with the question at hand "war threat on Ukraine".

There's only one answer for me, and i can't have it, the problems politics ( US ) nukes and a whole lot of demographic I can't image, as to where it all comes from I don't know, but you's all could take a good look in the mirror. With out putting to much on it, I think you's all think you's all know to much.


----------



## Iron Triangle (10 April 2022)

@3 hound , i recently joined here and your just being a smart arse bro .  Why you deliberately starting shite with long serving members and trying to piss em all off ??  like most of us you know jack shittt about the Ukraine/Russian/ Afgan people /Iraq war and US foreign policy except what your feed on 7 news or talk back radio.  

@GG , ease up on the big words ''virtuosos with a less than sesquipedalian...Corporal Jones '',  no offence man but you making a dick of yourself trying to sound intelligent .  Whats Corporal james got to do with this for christ sakes ??

My view on the situation. Ukraine were warned and warned and warned for past 10 years not to poke the bear but didnt listen, who's at fault ??  now it's turned into a bloody mess , tragic !  China seems to be the only ones making any sense , encouraging a seat at the table to resolve via diplomacy.


----------



## 3 hound (10 April 2022)

Iron Triangle said:


> @3 hound , i recently joined here and your just being a smart arse bro . Why you deliberately starting shite with long serving members and trying to piss em all off ?? like most of us you know jack shittt about the Ukraine/Russian/ Afgan people /Iraq war and US foreign policy except what your feed on 7 news or talk back radio.



 Thanks for adding nothing of value to the discussion.

Hope you feel better.


----------



## Garpal Gumnut (10 April 2022)

Iron Triangle said:


> @3 hound , i recently joined here and your just being a smart arse bro .  Why you deliberately starting shite with long serving members and trying to piss em all off ??  like most of us you know jack shittt about the Ukraine/Russian/ Afgan people /Iraq war and US foreign policy except what your feed on 7 news or talk back radio.
> 
> @GG , ease up on the big words ''virtuosos with a less than sesquipedalian...Corporal Jones '',  no offence man but you making a dick of yourself trying to sound intelligent .  Whats Corporal james got to do with this for christ sakes ??
> 
> My view on the situation. Ukraine were warned and warned and warned for past 10 years not to poke the bear but didnt listen, who's at fault ??  now it's turned into a bloody mess , tragic !  China seems to be the only ones making any sense , encouraging a seat at the table to resolve via diplomacy.



Thanks @Iron Triangle .

I'll try.

My attempts at humour sometimes fly over the heads of others and causes unnecessary hurt. I apologise. My mother dropped me on my head when I was a baby and I've been making a dick of myself ever since. 

The Corporal Jones ( not James ) remark was an allusion to a remark made in an ancient British TV show called Dad's Army in response to the floccinaucinihilipilification of @3 hound . 

The only other thing I would like to say in reply is that I am intelligent. 

gg


----------



## Garpal Gumnut (10 April 2022)

Now that all the f**ting has finished can we get back to discussing Ukraine. 

gg


----------



## rederob (10 April 2022)

Given that the war *THREAT *turned into a *WAR*, why is everyone posting in the wrong thread?
Just askin'.

(ps. @Dona Ferentes - a penny or a *shill*ing for your thoughts?)


----------



## Garpal Gumnut (10 April 2022)

rederob said:


> Given that the war *THREAT *turned into a *WAR*, why is everyone posting in the wrong thread?
> Just askin'.
> 
> (ps. @Dona Ferentes - a penny or a *shill*ing for your thoughts?)



I guess this was the first thread and until recently provided the most intelligent and useful information on the geopolitical situation in Ukraine, Russia and Europe. 

Perhaps it has run its course with all the animus generated.

It is @Craton 's call, I believe he started it. There is a Russian Invasion thread. 

Perhaps a whole new thread might be unnecessary if @Joe Blow could merge the two under Russian Invasion. 

gg


----------



## Dona Ferentes (10 April 2022)

rederob said:


> Given that the war *THREAT *turned into a *WAR*, why is everyone posting in the wrong thread?



Technically according to the aggressor, it isn't a war but a military excursion or some such nonsense.


rederob said:


> (ps. @Dona Ferentes - a penny or a *shill*ing for your thoughts?)



It is what I say it is. LoL


----------



## Garpal Gumnut (10 April 2022)

One of the reasons I would suggest that NATO become more involved on the ground in Ukraine is that Russia will designate minorities in adjacent European countries as an excuse  to further continue its fascist hegemony against sovereign states. 

It appears as if it may now target Latvia according to Samuel Ramani a respected commentator and
DPhil/PhD Intl Relations Uni of Oxford Assoc Fellow @RUSI_org with Bylines @ForeignPolicy The Washington Post and 3 forthcoming books 
from HurstPublishers Email samuel.ramani@gmail.com






This what the West is dealing with. 

NATO needs to call Putin's bluff.

gg


----------



## Craton (10 April 2022)

3 hound said:


> You
> 
> 
> You are pretty sure of yourself that you have the correct take on things.
> ...



I'm sure that my take is this.
Freedom comes at a price, Ukraine is demonstrating how much and how to pay for it.

Now you just keep on posting away but do allow me to thank you, thank you for showing me your true baiting and trolling colours.


----------



## Craton (10 April 2022)

Garpal Gumnut said:


> I guess this was the first thread and until recently provided the most intelligent and useful information on the geopolitical situation in Ukraine, Russia and Europe.
> 
> Perhaps it has run its course with all the animus generated.
> 
> ...



Umm, doesn't Basilio have the OP?

I'll leave the merging decision to Joe however, I noted that the title could be construed to mean a far more reaching war than just in Ukraine.


----------



## Iron Triangle (11 April 2022)

''*Thanks @Iron Triangle .

I'll try.

My attempts at humour sometimes fly over the heads of others and causes unnecessary hurt. I apologise. My mother dropped me on my head when I was a baby and I've been making a dick of myself ever since.

The Corporal Jones ( not James ) remark was an allusion to a remark made in an ancient British TV show called Dad's Army in response to the floccinaucinihilipilification of @3 hound .

The only other thing I would like to say in reply is that I am intelligent.

gg*''

No thanks required , using more silly words again ?   GG you blocked me i cannot see your posts when i'm logged in  ?  , no biggy really but i noticed you didnt have the balls to post that ^ , lol . You might believe and say you are intelligent GG , and thats great but i'm not convinced. Over and out.


----------



## Garpal Gumnut (11 April 2022)

Craton said:


> Umm, doesn't Basilio have the OP?
> 
> I'll leave the merging decision to Joe however, I noted that the title could be construed to mean a far more reaching war than just in Ukraine.



My mistake. 

I suppose though that the wider threat of war because of the invasion of Ukraine merits the continuation of the thread. 

Bucha shows that it is all out war now. The longer NATO prevaricate the more emboldened Putin will become.

It would appear the Russians are using genocide as a weapon now, orders coming from the top, from Putin's desk. 






gg


----------



## Stockbailx (11 April 2022)

Watching the news this morning. Tells of a Russian Convoy heading east towards the Donbas region, more troops, tanks, planes etc, kilometres long. Rather distasteful, considering the Ukrainians, have a lot on there plate already, with their hands full in that area tripping to conquer the Russians.  

Brings me to my usual argument; "Where's there support in the air and on the ground".


----------



## Stockbailx (11 April 2022)

"Food for thought" One of my many inquiry's into the process of serving Ukraine is there pledged support for assisting Ukraine actually getting to the Ukrainians, and how could it be with there being no air or troops offered to the Ukrainians from bitchie Bidens. US NATO.

2days ago


----------



## Stockbailx (11 April 2022)

Stockybailz said:


> Watching the news this morning. Tells of a Russian Convoy heading east towards the Donbas region, more troops, tanks, planes etc, kilometres long. Rather distasteful, considering the Ukrainians, have a lot on there plate already, with their hands full in that area tripping to conquer the Russians.
> 
> Brings me to my usual argument; "Where's there support in the air and on the ground".



Ukraine busy in the east. If you want to catch up on the history towards the lead up to this war watch this vid...


----------



## Garpal Gumnut (11 April 2022)

A full European embargo on Russian gas and oil would stop the Ukraine invasion by fascist Russia. 

From the BBC.









						Full embargo on oil could stop war - ex-Putin aide
					

President Putin's former chief economic adviser tells the BBC Western countries could stop the war.



					www.bbc.co.uk
				




gg


----------



## Craton (11 April 2022)

With Russia massing on the eastern front (!) where most of the oil and gas assets are, apart from Putin's claim that Ukraine is essentially Russian, you'd have to reckon he has got his eyes on those other big prizes. 

Ukraine's fabulous resources both above ground (the rich black soil) and what lies below.


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## 3 hound (11 April 2022)

Craton said:


> With Russia massing on the eastern front (!) where most of the oil and gas assets are, apart from Putin's claim that Ukraine is essentially Russian, you'd have to reckon he has got his eyes on those other big prizes.
> 
> Ukraine's fabulous resources both above ground (the rich black soil) and what lies below.




You could also argue that's also why NATO/EU have encroached.

Humans fighting over commodities and resources - such a novel concept.


----------



## Craton (11 April 2022)

NATO-Russia relations: the facts​


----------



## 3 hound (11 April 2022)

Craton said:


> NATO-Russia relations: the facts​




You actually use NATO as your source of facts to support NATO's claims.

Everything on that site may well be 110% true but seriously only in 2022 internet can people use as evidence A's version of events to prove A is right and B is wrong. No offence but have to have a wee giggle. Imagine this standard being used in a law court; 

Prosecutor: did you rob the bank.
Suspect: no.
Judge: suspect is proven innocent, case closed.

Let me point you to China's facts that China has the best human rights record on the planet, I bet China's website is bigger and has more colours than yours. That is what you have just done.

Now I  not disputing anything that NATO says about itself or Russia is untrue it's just your audacity to link to NATO to prove NATO good Putin bad.


----------



## Garpal Gumnut (11 April 2022)

I would be interested where ASF members get their information on the War in Ukraine from.

I generally use the BBC, Financial Times, WSJ, NYT, Times of London, Washington Post and the Guardian. I like to get as wide a view as possible. 

I have watched RT but it was obvious propaganda so don't anymore. I don't even know if it is still transmitting. 

Some amateur commentators have made a false equivalence between NATO and Russia, questioning the former's response and statements. The fog of war. Making a false equivalence is wrong though. NATO is composed of countries with elected governments, Russia is a totalitarian dictatorship. 

Sometimes I fear amateurs more than Putin. 

gg


----------



## Dona Ferentes (11 April 2022)

Garpal Gumnut said:


> I generally use the BBC, Financial Times, WSJ, NYT, Times of London, Washington Post and the Guardian. I like to get as wide a view as possible.



I find the Institute for the Study of War to have good Intel. Daily evaluations, taking geolocation as confirmation (for the Telegram and Facebook posts).. It is mainly focused on analysis of Russian moves.


Garpal Gumnut said:


> I have watched RT but it was obvious propaganda so don't anymore..  ....Russia is a totalitarian dictatorship.
> 
> Sometimes I fear.



Russian recidivism is alarming.


----------



## Craton (12 April 2022)

@Garpal Gumnut. As close to the real time action from across the globe and all done in the safety of one's cave.

Liveuamap



> Live Universal Awareness Map (“Liveuamap”) is a leading independent global news and information site dedicated to factual reporting of a variety of important topics including conflicts, human rights issues, protests, terrorism, weapons deployment, health matters, natural disasters, and weather related stories, among others, from a vast array of sources. We are passionate about what we do and are energized by the positive impact we bring, as demonstrated by the loyalty and recommendations of our growing viewers across the globe.


----------



## noirua (12 April 2022)

__





						Ukraine prepares for 'battle for Donbas' where Russian forces 'could triple' in number
					





					www.msn.com
				



Ukraine's military, after defeating a Russian attempt to storm the capital *Kyiv* and forcing Russian soldiers to withdraw from across the north of the country, must now also shift their focus to reinforcing southern and eastern flanks.


----------



## noirua (13 April 2022)

The best political weapon is the weapon of terror. Cruelty commands respect. Men may hate us. But, we don't ask for their love; only for their fear.
Heinrich Himmler


----------



## Garpal Gumnut (13 April 2022)

NATO will have to get on the ground in Ukraine. 

Otherwise next stops for the fascist Russians will be , Moldova, Latvia, Lithuania, Estonia, Finland and Poland. 

gg


----------



## Dona Ferentes (13 April 2022)

Garpal Gumnut said:


> NATO will have to get on the ground in Ukraine
> gg



The open ground of the Donbass steppe is far more suited to tank assaults than Kyiv area, where ambush was easy. If the Russians can make coordinated attacks with air support, they could break through the static lines of 2014. 

Then it will be different . Poor Ukraine.


----------



## noirua (13 April 2022)

__





						Americans Are "In Charge" Of The War Says French Journalist Who Returned From Ukraine | ZeroHedge
					

ZeroHedge - On a long enough timeline, the survival rate for everyone drops to zero




					www.zerohedge.com


----------



## moXJO (14 April 2022)

Dona Ferentes said:


> The open ground of the Donbass steppe is far more suited to tank assaults than Kyiv area, where ambush was easy. If the Russians can make coordinated attacks with air support, they could break through the static lines of 2014.
> 
> Then it will be different . Poor Ukraine.



They need to take a page of Iran's tactics. Similar flat ground mound up the dirt (with breaks between) with tanks behind.

They will need air defense though.


----------



## Garpal Gumnut (14 April 2022)

There has been quite a game change these past few hours. 

A land based Ukranian missile has sunk the Battleship Moskva. ( The same one told by the Ukrainian to F off at the beginning of the fascist invasion by Russia)

500 men lost. Hundreds of millions of hardware and missiles exploded. 

Nonetheless the Ukranians will attempt to capture it for their Navy. 




gg


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## Dona Ferentes (14 April 2022)

There has been quite a game change these past few hours.


Garpal Gumnut said:


> A land based Ukranian missile has sunk the Battleship Moskva. ( The same one told by the Ukrainian to F off at the beginning of the fascist invasion by Russia)
> 
> 500 men lost. Hundreds of millions of hardware and missiles exploded.




Do we know the casualties? Pretty obvious what started the fire. *Ukraine said* the 186m-long vessel was struck by their Neptune missiles.

The Russian Defence ministry's statement said: "_The cruiser Moskva's ammunition has detonated as a result of a fire on the warship. "The vessel is seriously damaged. The entire crew have been evacuated. The cause of the blaze is being investigated."_

The warship's main armaments are P-1000 Vulkan anti-ship missiles, range 700km.

_Maybe an oligarch could send a super-yacht to look for survivors?_


----------



## Garpal Gumnut (14 April 2022)

Dona Ferentes said:


> There has been quite a game change these past few hours.
> 
> 
> Do we know the casualties? Pretty obvious what started the fire. *Ukraine said* the 186m-long vessel was struck by their Neptune missiles.
> ...



Casualties unknown. Kremlin admits a fire and casualties. Osint on twitter and similar are confusing. Ukrainians claim it is sunk. 

Many claim these land  based to ship missiles will neutralise Russian Navy in the Black Sea.

Biden is promising close to a $Billion more weapons and there is talk of Blinken visiting Kyiv.

gg


----------



## Value Collector (14 April 2022)

3 hound said:


> No absolutely nobody should think that.  Did you miss the war in Afghanistan? The US failed against literal primitive goat herders living in caves using hand me down weapons.



The invasion and occupation of Afghanistan was a success, the Tailban didn’t retake the country until the USA was pulling out, the Afghan government failed, not the USA military.

Same thing will happen in Ukraine, Russia will have to occupy the country if they want to stop it reverting back to Ukraine rule, there is basically no way to stop a country reverting back unless the people themselves reject it.


----------



## Garpal Gumnut (14 April 2022)

Value Collector said:


> The invasion and occupation of Afghanistan was a success, the Tailban didn’t retake the country until the USA was pulling out, the Afghan government failed, not the USA military.
> 
> Same thing will happen in Ukraine, Russia will have to occupy the country if they want to stop it reverting back to Ukraine rule, there is basically no way to stop a country reverting back unless the people themselves reject it.



I'm quite surprised by the ineffectiveness of the Russian forces. 

They cannot cope with high tech weapons from Ukraine. 

I'd be putting a few dollars on Ukraine pushing them out of all their territories incl. Donbas and Crimea. 

Russia = USSR incompetence atm.

gg


----------



## Value Collector (14 April 2022)

Garpal Gumnut said:


> I'm quite surprised by the ineffectiveness of the Russian forces.
> 
> They cannot cope with high tech weapons from Ukraine.
> 
> ...



Same, I have been surprised too, I guess the USA is lucky that the Afghans didn’t have javelins and stingers


----------



## Dona Ferentes (14 April 2022)

Value Collector said:


> Same, I have been surprised too, I guess the USA is lucky that the Afghans didn’t have javelins and stingers



Ah but they did (Stingers at least, as they were developed in the early 1980s



> According to the 1993 US Air Defense Artillery Yearbook, the Mujahideen gunners used the supplied Stingers to score approximately 269 total aircraft kills in about 340 engagements, a 79% kill probability.[27] If this report is accurate, Stingers would be responsible for over half of the 451 Soviet aircraft losses in Afghanistan.



There was a buyback in the 1990s and quite a high priority in 2001 to collect them all up from disparate groups


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## 3 hound (14 April 2022)

Value Collector said:


> The invasion and occupation of Afghanistan was a success




Holy crap, the internet coughs up some weird stuff but your comment above is the most batshit craziest thing I have ever read. This is some kind of milestone for the internet.


----------



## Value Collector (14 April 2022)

Dona Ferentes said:


> Ah but they did (Stingers at least, as they were developed in the early 1980s
> 
> 
> There was a buyback in the 1990s and quite a high priority in 2001 to collect them all up from disparate groups



Yeah I know, I think 3 were fired at USA aircraft, but they didn’t have shipments of 100’s and 1000’s of them coming in like a conveyor belt.

The Taliban also had fighter jets, but their pilots bailed when USA declared war, they didn’t want to go up against the USA airforce with only 6 light fighters.


----------



## 3 hound (14 April 2022)

Value Collector said:


> Yeah I know, I think 3 were fired at USA aircraft, but they didn’t have shipments of 100’s and 1000’s of them coming in like a conveyor belt.
> 
> The Taliban also had fighter jets, but their pilots bailed when USA declared war, they didn’t want to go up against the USA airforce with only 6 light fighters.



Not sure if there are hidden posts but this makes no sense in the discussion??

I may have accidentally put someone on ignore??


----------



## Value Collector (14 April 2022)

3 hound said:


> Holy crap, the internet coughs up some weird stuff but your comment above is the most batshit craziest thing I have ever read. This is some kind of milestone for the internet.



How was the invasion not a success?

The USA invaded Afghanistan to dismantle Al Qaeda and topple the Taliban government, the Taliban were dislodged out of the government and capital within weeks. 

It wasn’t until 20 years after the invasion that the USA left and the Taliban retook power.

You are confusing a successful invasion and occupation with being able to install a successful puppet government to rule when you leave?


----------



## Value Collector (14 April 2022)

3 hound said:


> Not sure if there are hidden posts but this makes no sense in the discussion??
> 
> I may have accidentally put someone on ignore??



That was a reply to Dona ferntas above, she may have you on ignore.


----------



## 3 hound (14 April 2022)

Value Collector said:


> How was the invasion not a success?
> 
> The USA invaded Afghanistan to dismantle Al Qaeda and topple the Taliban government, the Taliban were dislodged out of the government and capital within weeks.
> 
> ...



I want you to be my boss, I will serve you the most expensive bloody pile of poo and you will think it's Cavia.


----------



## 3 hound (14 April 2022)

Value Collector said:


> That was a reply to Dona ferntas above, she may have you on ignore.



Gotcha.


----------



## againsthegrain (14 April 2022)

Value Collector said:


> Yeah I know, I think 3 were fired at USA aircraft, but they didn’t have shipments of 100’s and 1000’s of them coming in like a conveyor belt.
> 
> The Taliban also had fighter jets, but their pilots bailed when USA declared war, they didn’t want to go up against the USA airforce with only 6 light fighters.




They believed maverick and iceman still flew them


----------



## Dona Ferentes (14 April 2022)

Value Collector said:


> That was a reply to Dona ferntas above, she may have you on ignore.



thx, VC. Well read. Just had a look at the comment. And she's back on Ignore.


----------



## Garpal Gumnut (14 April 2022)

Value Collector said:


> That was a reply to Dona ferntas above, she may have you on ignore.



Can you let da hound know I'll take her off ignore and relay any messages to the many others who have her on ignore, while she is off my ignore. 

Seeing' as it's Easter.

Da hound is a lady, and ladies need respeck.

gg


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## Value Collector (14 April 2022)

3 hound said:


> I want you to be my boss, I will serve you the most expensive bloody pile of poo and you will think it's Cavia.



Look, the USA occupied Afghanistan and held its capital for 20 years, if you don’t think that shows that their invasion was successful then I don’t know what does.

I didn’t say that the over all rebuilding of Afghanistan and installation of a friendly puppet government was successful, obviously it wasn’t, but that’s a different subject to the initial invasion.

To be honest I don’t think any country would be successful at that, just like long term Russia won’t be successful in the Ukraine, unless they commit to a full blown occupation for decades.

Some of the US soldiers that served on that final US mission in Afghanistan weren’t even born when the initial invasion happened, I think that shows how long the USA held the ground there, but obviously they can’t stay for ever, and things will revert back once they go.


----------



## Dona Ferentes (14 April 2022)

Value Collector said:


> long term Russia won’t be successful in the Ukraine, unless they commit to a full blown occupation for decades.



Well, they started with Catherine the Great, so there's some form


----------



## 3 hound (14 April 2022)

Value Collector said:


> Look, the USA occupied Afghanistan and held it capital for 20 years, if you don’t think that shows that their invasion was successful then I don’t know what does.
> 
> I didn’t say that the over all rebuilding of Afghanistan and installation of a friendly puppet government was successful, obviously it wasn’t, but that’s a different subject to the initial invasion.
> 
> Do be honest I don’t think any country would be successful at that, just like long term Russia won’t be successful in the Ukraine, unless they commit to a full blown occupation for decades.



Only an inhuman psychopath directly profiting from the war budget could calculate that the Afghanistan war was a success. Then on your next breath claiming a small increase in the cost of living due to the Ukraine war is a small sacrifice compared to the suffering of the Ukraine people. You are a fraud and a hypocrite.


----------



## Value Collector (14 April 2022)

3 hound said:


> Only an inhuman psychopath directly profiting from the war budget could calculate that the Afghanistan war was a success. Then on your next breath claiming a small increase in the cost of living due to the Ukraine war is a small sacrifice compared to the suffering of the Ukraine people. You are a fraud and a hypocrite.



I didn’t say the Afghan war was a success, I said the invasion was a success, I think you have trouble understanding nuance.

Mate, I had two friends die in Afghanistan, another lost an arm, part of his hand and some of his eye sight, and several others suffer severe injuries, not to mention the mental health issues, I believe I know what suffering war brings.


----------



## 3 hound (14 April 2022)

Value Collector said:


> didn’t say the Afghan war was a success, I said the invasion was a success,




By that logic, on average WWII was a resounding success for Hitler and the German people.


----------



## Value Collector (14 April 2022)

3 hound said:


> By that logic, on average WWII was a resounding success for Hitler and the German people.



I am beginning to see why you struggle so much you don’t seem to be able to comprehend simple concepts.

If you want to use WW2 as an example, then Yes almost all military historians would agree that Germany’s initial invasion was a massive success, they smashed the French and allied forces and took control of France.

Understanding that this is in no way a claim that the eventual outcome or the  war in general was a “resounding success for hitler and the German people” takes a big more brain power than I believe you have though.

You have to understand that Wars are long processes with multiple stages, you can win a battle but lose the war so to speak, saying the initial invasion of Afghanistan was successful is not a claim that the war in general had a perfect outcome, it’s just an admission that some stages of the process were successful and others weren’t (mainly the final step of rebuilding the government)


----------



## 3 hound (14 April 2022)

Value Collector said:


> I am beginning to see why you struggle so much you don’t seem to be able to comprehend simple concepts.
> 
> If you want to use WW2 as an example, then Yes almost all military historians would agree that Germany’s initial invasion was a massive success, they smashed the French and allied forces and took control of France.
> 
> ...




I think your level of nuance is weasel wording, for what motivation you would do that I neither know or care.

But ok here you go, winning a specific battle is not winning the war - thank you captain obvious you totally got me. I'm stupid and didn't get the "nuance".


----------



## againsthegrain (14 April 2022)

I think the biggest downfall of Afghanistan was the locals didn't have the heart to fight Taliban.  Americans trained them, gave weapons and as soon as they left and Taliban came they all surrendered and didn't want to fight the Talibs.  This is really out of American's hands.
Then you look at Ukraine and how much heart they have,  with the same support from Usa they are taking on a much bigger aggressor.


----------



## Value Collector (14 April 2022)

3 hound said:


> I think your level of nuance is weasel wording, for what motivation you would do that I neither know or care.
> 
> But ok here you go, winning a specific battle is not winning the war - thank you captain obvious you totally got me. I'm stupid and didn't get the "nuance".



Look, we are discussing the invasion of Ukraine, and whether it’s successful, comparing it to the initial invasion of Afghanistan or Iraq obviously shows that the USA performed a better during the invasion phase because in both situations the USA ended up capturing their targets and from there entered into long occupations.

As I said you were just tripped up because you thought I was trying to say the Entire Afghan war was a success so went off on a tangent,  which of course I would not ever say the entire war was successful. 

In future just try to actually read the words people write, and try to understand what they are actually saying.

Eg, if some one says “invasion” especially “initial invasion” they are obviously not talking about the entire campaign, they are talking just about the “initial invasion”.

I don’t know, maybe I just have more military experience than you, so these differences are more easily understood by me than you.


----------



## Value Collector (14 April 2022)

againsthegrain said:


> I think the biggest downfall of Afghanistan was the locals didn't have the heart to fight Taliban.  Americans trained them, gave weapons and as soon as they left and Taliban came they all surrendered and didn't want to fight the Talibs.  This is really out of American's hands.
> Then you look at Ukraine and how much heart they have,  with the same support from Usa they are taking on a much bigger aggressor.



Exactly, the USA could only do so much, as soon as any foreign army withdraws from anywhere the country will always revert back to a state that the locals decide.


----------



## 3 hound (14 April 2022)

Value Collector said:


> Look, we are discussing the invasion of Ukraine, and whether it’s successful, comparing it to the initial invasion of Afghanistan or Iraq obviously shows that the USA performed a better during the invasion phase because in both situations the USA ended up capturing their targets and from there entered into long occupations.
> 
> As I said you were just tripped up because you thought I was trying to say the Entire Afghan war was a success so went off on a tangent,  which of course I would not ever say the entire war was successful.
> 
> ...



My military experience = 0.

I was put in charge of a bunch of outright crazy suicidal vets more than twice my age when I was a teenager contracting on the last wild cattle runs before they got turned into national parks and indigenous properties in the gulf & Cape country.  They taught me everyone in a war loses and made me promise to never join up no matter what I get told. Kinda glad now I listened and never joined up, altho I already had the firearms and bush experience built in.


----------



## Value Collector (14 April 2022)

3 hound said:


> My military experience = 0.
> 
> I was put in charge of a bunch of outright crazy suicidal vets more than twice my age when I was a teenager contracting on the last wild cattle runs before they got turned into national parks and indigenous properties in the gulf & Cape country.  They taught me everyone in a war loses and made me promise to never join up no matter what I get told. Kinda glad now I listened and never joined up, altho I already had the firearms and bush experience built in.



I 100% agree, war causes pain for all involved, we are far better trading with each other than fighting, if you had been around here for a while longer and actually understood where I am coming from, you would know I am almost a pacifist these days, (under my avatar picture I actually have the quote “have courage and be kind” that’s something I live by. 

In future before you fly off the handle calling people psychopaths just try to actually read their posts and understand what it is exactly they are saying, rather than assume that they are saying something else.


----------



## Garpal Gumnut (14 April 2022)

Value Collector said:


> I 100% agree, war causes pain for all involved, we are far better trading with each other than fighting, if you had been around here for a while longer and actually understood where I am coming from, you would know I am almost a pacifist these days, (under my avatar picture I actually have the quote “have courage and be kind” that’s something I live by.
> 
> In future before you fly off the handle calling people psychopaths just try to actually read their posts and understand what it is exactly they are saying, rather than assume that they are saying something else.



Who was this directed at?

I've never had to block so many people on ASF, so I miss many posts in a thread.

Does it bark?

War is awful and many who have never seen it's effects are often the most warry. 

Don't let any trolls nor mongrels get you down @Value Collector 

gg


----------



## Value Collector (14 April 2022)

Garpal Gumnut said:


> Who was this directed at?
> 
> I've never had to block so many people on ASF, so I miss many posts in a thread.
> 
> ...



It was directed at 3hound, 

he seems to think that me saying that the USA’s initial Invasion of Afghanistan was more successful than Russia’s Ukrainian Invasion means that I am (in his words) “an inhuman psychopath directly profiting from the war”.

I think I am going to block him for a while, I love debating different ideas, but his level of cynicism is a drag.


----------



## 3 hound (14 April 2022)

Value Collector said:


> Directed at 3hound.



Is there supposed to be something posted here other than my user name, it's blank to me??

@Value Collector


----------



## moXJO (14 April 2022)

Mariupol looks lost. The media keeps upbeat about Ukraine chances, but Ukraine soldiers are taking some big losses now.

A Brit was taken as a pow(confirmed) and a yank recently killed (not confirmed).
Noticed Zelensky was calling for conscripts.
And there were another batch of foreign recruits that up and left.
Large group of marines were killed or taken POW. I think roughly 500 were reportedly killed and about 1000 are now prisoners.

 There has also been a downturn in western media interest which was being monitored by a Russian site.

Crucial time in which we need to keep supplying arms to pound away at Russia. If Ukraine loses here from western neglect we may very well be fcked in the long run.


----------



## 3 hound (14 April 2022)

moXJO said:


> Large group of marines were killed or taken POW. I think roughly 500 were reportedly killed and about 1000 are now prisoners.





From what country?


----------



## moXJO (15 April 2022)

3 hound said:


> From what country?



They were Ukrainian, one of the azov battalions I think. They were hiding out under one of the factories. Apparently they have been trying to leave the city for weeks but the Russians have circled the city. 

They were out of ammo and food. So obviously supply lines were cut. I heard the Russians turned the fire houses on to try and drown any stragglers hiding in the tunnels. 

Ukraine is trying to say otherwise. But there is a recorded phone call with the Brit just before they surrendered that they were in the sht.


----------



## Garpal Gumnut (15 April 2022)

Value Collector said:


> It was directed at 3hound,
> 
> he seems to think that me saying that the USA’s initial Invasion of Afghanistan was more successful than Russia’s Ukrainian Invasion means that I am (in his words) “an inhuman psychopath directly profiting from the war”.
> 
> I think I am going to block him for a while, I love debating different ideas, but his level of cynicism is a drag.



That particular poster is what is known I am told as a Troll.

He or she or they is or are blocked by many.

I believe he/she/they enjoys his/her/their behaviour.

gg


----------



## Craton (15 April 2022)

Nice expose on the Russian president succeeding in doing what he claimed/lied NATO was doing. Reality Check or see video below.

More on Russian expansionism, along Russia's eastern border lie the strategic Kuril Islands, see the video below.

Another matter that doesn't bode well is that Crimea, although internationally recognized as being part of the Ukrainian nation, there's Putin's constitutional change with the Russian ban on ceding any Russian territory. Of course any call to cede land will most likely place any dissenter in the gulag for a few years.


> Under Putin’s amendments that passed in a nationwide vote on July 1, 2020 it is now unconstitutional to give any part of Russian territory away to a foreign power.




*Reality Check*


*Kuril Islands*


----------



## 3 hound (15 April 2022)

Craton said:


> Nice expose on the Russian president succeeding in doing what he claimed/lied NATO was doing. Reality Check or see video below.
> 
> More on Russian expansionism, along Russia's eastern border lie the strategic Kuril Islands, see the video below.
> 
> ...






CNN or reality, which one?


----------



## noirua (15 April 2022)

Russian warship sinks in the Black Sea after Ukraine claims it was hit by a missile | CNN
					

One of the Russian Navy's most important warships has sunk in the Black Sea, a massive blow to a military struggling against Ukrainian resistance 50 days into Vladimir Putin's invasion of his neighbor.




					edition.cnn.com
				



One of the Russian Navy's most important warships has sunk in the Black Sea, a massive blow to a military struggling against Ukrainian resistance 50 days into Vladimir Putin's invasion of his neighbor.
Russian state news agency TASS reported Thursday evening that the guided-missile cruiser Moskva had sunk, citing a statement from the Russian Ministry of Defense.


----------



## noirua (15 April 2022)




----------



## moXJO (15 April 2022)

USA military equipment was designed to take out Russian military equipment. They must be loving that they can destroy Russian vehicles without losing soldiers. 
Seems like payback for Vietnam and other wars that Russia "advised" on the ground.

US does need to send more trainers as I think they are training Ukrainians back in the US.

 Ultimate goal is to break Russia up into smaller countries similar to what happened to the USSR. US can't afford anymore losses after the Biden administration mishandling of almost everything.


----------



## againsthegrain (15 April 2022)

moXJO said:


> USA military equipment was designed to take out Russian military equipment. They must be loving that they can destroy Russian vehicles without losing soldiers.
> Seems like payback for Vietnam and other wars that Russia "advised" on the ground.
> 
> US does need to send more trainers as I think they are training Ukrainians back in the US.
> ...




I am amazed and saddened that russia has such a grip on the Caucasus region, forcing their youth to lose their lives and kill slavs. The Caucasus states are neither Slavs or ethnic Russians, they are forced to fight for Putin. Russians killed so many and destroyed Chechnia so bad 20 years ago yet now because of 1 puppet dictator seeded there by Putin those people are forced to breathe the same destruction on Ukraine that Russia inflicted on Grozny. Those states need to break away,  Belarus also needs some sanity with majority of the population being under the thumb of another Russian seeded dictator.  It needs to all fall apart asap


----------



## Garpal Gumnut (15 April 2022)

Last picture of the Moskva before it didn't sink according to the Russians. 




gg


----------



## moXJO (15 April 2022)

Garpal Gumnut said:


> Last picture of the Moskva before it didn't sink according to the Russians.
> 
> View attachment 140460
> 
> ...



Apparently it didn't sink and even made it back on its own. Ukrainians baited it with a drone that the warship was chasing. The then hit it in a surprise attack.

A retired US general said the majority of what the Ukrainians media put out is debunked as lies in 24-48 hours. Surprisingly Russia isn't pushing as much bs on military victories.


----------



## moXJO (15 April 2022)

againsthegrain said:


> I am amazed and saddened that russia has such a grip on the Caucasus region, forcing their youth to lose their lives and kill slavs. The Caucasus states are neither Slavs or ethnic Russians, they are forced to fight for Putin. Russians killed so many and destroyed Chechnia so bad 20 years ago yet now because of 1 puppet dictator seeded there by Putin those people are forced to breathe the same destruction on Ukraine that Russia inflicted on Grozny. Those states need to break away,  Belarus also needs some sanity with majority of the population being under the thumb of another Russian seeded dictator.  It needs to all fall apart asap



They have turned a lot of the Russians into hate mode with the propaganda. Any hope of a peaceful solution bar a big salami slice out of Ukraine is gone imo.


moXJO said:


> Apparently it didn't sink and even made it back on its own. Ukrainians baited it with a drone that the warship was chasing. The then hit it in a surprise attack.
> 
> A retired US general said the majority of what the Ukrainians media put out is debunked as lies in 24-48 hours. Surprisingly Russia isn't pushing as much bs on military victories.



Scratch this its all most likely bs. God I hate the amount of bs out there


----------



## Craton (15 April 2022)

More on why Russia needs to "feel secure" from Peter Ziehan - a strategist, thinker, futurist, speaker on geopolitics.

*The Myth of Justified Russian Retaliation *



> There has been a persistent argument made by Russia apologists – unwitting or otherwise – that Moscow’s invasion of Ukraine is the fault of the West. Or NATO. Or some combination, but with the United States ultimately bearing the brunt of responsibility. It isn’t particularly new, either; Russia and a whole constellation of international relations theorists and political scientists and peaceniks and Russia apologists have been making it for decades.
> 
> I’m not confused by why it’s happening. It’s absolutely in Russia’s interest to try and make the international community see its actions as reasonable and justified. I’m just confused that anyone believes it.
> 
> ...




The Myth of NATO Provocations​


----------



## basilio (15 April 2022)

Craton said:


> Umm, doesn't Basilio have the OP?
> 
> I'll leave the merging decision to Joe however, I noted that the title could be construed to mean a far more reaching war than just in Ukraine.




I started this thread in the* Business Investment Economics *thread to maybe focus on the  economic /social impact of the war.  For examples issues around the loss of Ukraine grain to world markets impacting on political/economic stability.

There are a number of threads on the conduct of the war and so on. I thought this one might focus on the above issues. I started it before the invasion when investors might have some consideration of the economic consequences. Frankly I think they are enormous.


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## Garpal Gumnut (15 April 2022)

basilio said:


> I started this thread in the* Business Investment Economics *thread to maybe focus on the  economic /social impact of the war.  For examples issues around the loss of Ukraine grain to world markets impacting on political/economic stability.
> 
> There are a number of threads on the conduct of the war and so on. I thought this one might focus on the above issues. I started it before the invasion when investors might have some consideration of the economic consequences. Frankly I think they are enormous.



Thanks @basilio 

I guess grain and oil will be directly affected by shortages consequent on War in Ukraine. 

Next currency markets, Ruble as we've seen vs everything else, it will see saw. 

Europe is rooted. It is split economically and militarily and elects nincompoops ( much like Australia elects nincompoops ).

The big uncertainty economically is not Europe, the USA, Ua or Ru but imo China. 

Now contrary to many peoples' opinion China and Russia are not good buddies. China looks down on Russia as barbarians and will squeeze them mightily for any exports or imports. The Russians hate the Chinese and have for a millennium as they believe them to be smarter businessmen than they themselves. It is about the only thing Putin gets correctly. 

So we are now left economically with two big trading powers China and the USA. Next in line would come the Saudi's and the rest of the hoods in that region, Russia and then India, then yer UKs, Brasilias, Australia etc. a bit further down. 

All are making the right moves economically except Russia which is being screwed mightily.

Covid or some other plague awaits in the wings.

Africa and fringe Asian countries will starve.

And Gold as ever is mightier than the sword.  

gg


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## Dona Ferentes (15 April 2022)

basilio said:


> I started this thread in the* Business Investment Economics *thread to maybe focus on the  economic /social impact of the war.



Well, Mr B, I hope you aren't exhibiting any petulance, but the nature of events in Ukraine, and how discussion drifts, took the subject off hypotheticals and into realities.

But it is a watershed set of circumstances we are experiencing. Reversal of globalisation ... Huge. Realignment of blocs ... still a work in progress. Food security .....an illusion for many. And all the rest of the issues. (Feminist principles? Not worth much if the rapist is at the door).


----------



## basilio (16 April 2022)

The war continues and moves into more and more savage fighting.
The latest and possibly most troubling situation is the "last stand" fight in Mariupol.
The  last and strongest of the Ukrainian defenders  are embedded in a vast steel plant.  The Russians will have to destroy the plant piece by piece to "win" this battle and ensure they hold Mariupol.

*This steel plant is an integral part of Europes infrastructure.* Intact it pumped out 4m tonnes of steel a year, 3.5m tonnes of hot metal and 1.2m tonnes of rolled steel.  That is a big slice of European basic infrastructure. WTF will happen if this plant is trashed ? What will it take to repair it ? What happens in the meantime ?

‘Fortress in a city’: steel plant becomes Ukrainian hold-out in Mariupol​Outnumbered forces concealed in the vast factory are the eastern city’s last line of defence against the Russian invaders

Russia-Ukraine war: latest updates



Smoke and fire have been seen coming from the Azovstal iron and steelworks, where Ukrainian forces in Mariupol are concentrated. Photograph: Maxar Tech/AFP/Getty Images

Reuters
Fri 15 Apr 2022 12.27 BSTLast modified on Fri 15 Apr 2022 16.03 BST


Explosions rumbled and smoke rose this week from a steelmaking district in besieged Mariupol where dwindling Ukrainian forces are holed up as Russia tries to take full control of its biggest city yet.
The Azovstal iron and steelworks, one of Europe’s biggest metallurgical plants, has become an apocalyptic redoubt for Ukrainian forces who are outgunned, outnumbered and surrounded seven weeks into Russia’s invasion of Ukraine.

In the east of the southern port devastated by weeks of shelling, the plant lies in an industrial area that looks out to the Sea of Azov and covers more than 11 sq km (4.25 sq miles), containing myriad buildings, blastfurnaces and rail tracks.









						‘Fortress in a city’: steel plant becomes Ukrainian hold-out in Mariupol
					

Outnumbered forces concealed in the vast factory are the eastern city’s last line of defence against the Russian invaders




					www.theguardian.com


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## moXJO (16 April 2022)

basilio said:


> The war continues and moves into more and more savage fighting.
> The latest and possibly most troubling situation is the "last stand" fight in Mariupol.
> The  last and strongest of the Ukrainian defenders  are embedded in a vast steel plant.  The Russians will have to destroy the plant piece by piece to "win" this battle and ensure they hold Mariupol.
> 
> ...




It's literally the last stand for them. Surrounded on all sides unless they go for a swim.

Map with current alerts

https://liveuamap.com/en/2022/15-april-russian-army-bombed-mariupol-with-longrange-tu22m3


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## divs4ever (16 April 2022)

basilio said:


> I started this thread in the* Business Investment Economics *thread to maybe focus on the  economic /social impact of the war.  For examples issues around the loss of Ukraine grain to world markets impacting on political/economic stability.
> 
> There are a number of threads on the conduct of the war and so on. I thought this one might focus on the above issues. I started it before the invasion when investors might have some consideration of the economic consequences. Frankly I think they are enormous.



 sadly i believe you are correct  , the consequences will be enormous  , whether Russia and China start limiting exports or not 

 not to mention those oligarchs who are no longer able  to invest ( or spend their money ) in the Western economy  , it's only a few billion here a few billion there  it shouldn't do too much damage to nations  already massively in debt 

 and yes the reduced investment ( say from India and Saudi Arabia )  will certainly be noticed by some 

 the food instability was already a problem , all this conflict did  was dampen hopes of a less nasty outcome 

personally i will resist investing in the EU and US ( and UK ) in future  , their word ( bonds ) are worthless  but the Cyprus saga already proved that .

 whether i am a tiny minority or part of a larger trend , time will tell


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## 3 hound (16 April 2022)

basilio said:


> The war continues and moves into more and more savage fighting.
> The latest and possibly most troubling situation is the "last stand" fight in Mariupol.
> The  last and strongest of the Ukrainian defenders  are embedded in a vast steel plant.  The Russians will have to destroy the plant piece by piece to "win" this battle and ensure they hold Mariupol.
> 
> ...




I get an anxiety attack just thinking about this situation.


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## Garpal Gumnut (16 April 2022)

moXJO said:


> It's literally the last stand for them. Surrounded on all sides unless they go for a swim.
> 
> Map with current alerts
> 
> https://liveuamap.com/en/2022/15-april-russian-army-bombed-mariupol-with-longrange-tu22m3



Thanks @moXJO for the intelligent commentary on Mariupol. I've been following it on Osinttechnical and related channels of information.

Ukraine is in an existential crisis and these UA Fighters are holding their own in an asymmetrical war, using guerrilla tactics. 

They understand that there will in all likelihood be a poor outcome for them. This is part and parcel of war.

Only trolls would get an anxiety attack just thinking about this situation.

gg


----------



## basilio (16 April 2022)

It does look like a last stand fight. But the cost to the Russian attackers, the huge industrial plant and the Putin government could also be catastrophic.

Traditionally in battles the attackers leave an exit route to encourage the enemy to get out. Fighting determined, desperate  soldiers  with nothing left to lose is  a recipe for a a bloodbath.

Hand to hand combat against a prepared force  in the network of buildings  would  be a nightmare.  This would make the  likelihood of some massive bombing/chemical attack far more likely.  So if one wants an anxiety attack consider how the world would react to such a decision by the Russians.


----------



## divs4ever (16 April 2022)

3 hound said:


> I get an anxiety attack just thinking about this situation.





 well this could get very complicated Russia has several options i can see  they have SO FAR chosen not to take  , China  will be watching and thinking  , while India is looking around  and re-assessing  future moves  , we will have to keep an eye on Pakistan  and also watch Afghanistan ( which could get very complicated  all by itself .. say what if China poured money and infrastructure into developing Afghanistan , abandoning areas of South America and Africa ... and possibly Australia )

 not obvious yet will be several other nations that are sick of US and EU ( and IMF ) blackmail and bullying , and might start earnestly searching for reliable trading partners ( like the on again/off again Latin American trading bloc ) and don't forget South-East Asia  will be reassessing options as well


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## 3 hound (16 April 2022)

divs4ever said:


> well this could get very complicated Russia has several options i can see  they have SO FAR chosen not to take  , China  will be watching and thinking  , while India is looking around  and re-assessing  future moves  , we will have to keep an eye on Pakistan  and also watch Afghanistan ( which could get very complicated  all by itself .. say what if China poured money and infrastructure into developing Afghanistan , abandoning areas of South America and Africa ... and possibly Australia )
> 
> not obvious yet will be several other nations that are sick of US and EU ( and IMF ) blackmail and bullying , and might start earnestly searching for reliable trading partners ( like the on again/off again Latin American trading bloc ) and don't forget South-East Asia  will be reassessing options as well



Despite what the msm pundits say I have always thought there is a risk that the emerging economies will tire of the west perceived dominance and start rallying together in a new trading block not based on the USD.


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## 3 hound (16 April 2022)

basilio said:


> It does look like a last stand fight. But the cost to the Russian attackers, the huge industrial plant and the Putin government could also be catastrophic.
> 
> Traditionally in battles the attackers leave an exit route to encourage the enemy to get out. Fighting determined, desperate  soldiers  with nothing left to lose is  a recipe for a a bloodbath.
> 
> Hand to hand combat against a prepared force  in the network of buildings  would  be a nightmare.  This would make the  likelihood of some massive bombing/chemical attack far more likely.  So if one wants an anxiety attack consider how the world would react to such a decision by the Russians.



I am not a soldier but why do you need to fight your enemy trapped inside a building. If you don't want to destroy the building to get them because the building can be used as an future asset surely you can just starve them out. It appears the Russians have a supply route and the Ukraine soldiers are isolated.

Either way it's horrifying to think what could happen.


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## Craton (17 April 2022)

basilio said:


> I started this thread in the* Business Investment Economics *thread to maybe focus on the  economic /social impact of the war.  For examples issues around the loss of Ukraine grain to world markets impacting on political/economic stability.
> 
> There are a number of threads on the conduct of the war and so on. I thought this one might focus on the above issues. I started it before the invasion when investors might have some consideration of the economic consequences. Frankly I think they are enormous.



Cheers @basilio understood, focus on the title thread.
The following is not meant to be a deep dive per se, more of an overview on the far reaching $$$ implications of this armed conflict.

Like all things that apply to the human condition, nothing seems to be what it appears to be, especially when it comes to; the Business of war (from Wikipedia), stock market Investment in wartime (from Investopedia) and war Economics (from Cato Institute).

*Business*:
Just on grain. ABARES reports a decent grain crop, fourth highest on record.
The cynic in me sees that there will be profiteering even with the NSW lower than average wheat quality with this, no doubt leading to higher and higher prices on the supermarket shelves.

*Investment*:
Commodities. We know in which direction these go when there is a squeeze on.
Ergo, with Europe so reliant on Russian oil and gas, the fragility of this must force new investment from other suppliers and/or sources.

Stocks: I'm sure that with Ukraine being a major producer of Neon, which in itself is critical in computer chip/semi-conductor manufacturing, has already been discussed.
Reuters 11 Mar 2022


> Some 45% to 54% of the world's semiconductor-grade neon, critical for the lasers used to make chips, comes from two Ukrainian companies, Ingas and Cryoin, according to Reuters calculations based on figures from the companies and market research firm Techcet. Global neon consumption for chip production reached about 540 metric tons last year, Techcet estimates.




CBNC 25 Mar 2022



> More than half of the world’s neon is produced by a handful of companies in Ukraine, according to Peter Hanbury, a semiconductor analyst at research firm Bain & Co.
> 
> Those companies include Mariupol-based Ingas, as well as Cryoin and Iceblick, which are based in Odesa.



You can't tell me the Kremlin wasn't aware of this Neon fact.
Of course there are other prizes for the invader hence the invader's Investment in the invasion.

*Economics*:
This Cato Institute study, using five year datasets of wars and coups etc from 1955 to 2015, looks at how to quantify war into several areas like; Economic Freedom, War and GDP per Capita, Econometric Analysis and so on.



> For various reasons, economists have become interested in investigating the causes and effects of war and other armed conflict (e.g., Coyne and Mathers 2011).
> 
> 
> This article uses a consistent measurement of these forms of violence across space and time to conduct a rigorous quantitative analysis of the effect of war on economic growth.




*War and GDP per Capita*


> Conceptually, the total cost of war includes three parts: (1) the opportunity cost of the resources used to prosecute war, (2) the loss of lives and destruction of physical and human capital during the war, and (3) the reduction of GDP per capita as measured during and following the war. The focus of this study is on the third part.




One thing that is in the back of my mind is the nuclear threat. Although I personally don't think it'll come to that, however the threat is there and the threat is real.
I'm speculating that the West's nuke powers are seriously assessing the capability of their systems and possibly looking at testing and/or upgrades. Without further research, I am just speculating.

As the Ukrainian "special military operation" keeps on keeping on, the world has been forced into having a major rethink on what a protracted conflict means to all trading partners, businesses big and small and to the rest of us, on a personal level.

For every day that the Ukrainian conflict continues there is no doubt that, the socioeconomic consequences continue to mount!


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## 3 hound (17 April 2022)

Craton said:


> As the Ukrainian "special military operation" keeps on keeping on, the world has been forced into having a major rethink on what a protracted conflict means to all trading partners, businesses big and small and to the rest of us, on a personal level.




Globalisation was meant to make the world immune to supply chain issues and shortages all while at the lowest possible cost to the consumer.

Another brilliant idea that ends up being the opposite of brilliant.


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## JohnDe (17 April 2022)

3 hound said:


> Globalisation was meant to make the world immune to supply chain issues and shortages all while at the lowest possible cost to the consumer.
> 
> Another brilliant idea that ends up being the opposite of brilliant.



It worked for 40 years


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## Value Collector (17 April 2022)

3 hound said:


> Globalisation was meant to make the world immune to supply chain issues and shortages all while at the lowest possible cost to the consumer.
> 
> Another brilliant idea that ends up being the opposite of brilliant.



I don’t think any one has ever claimed that globalisation was meant to make the world immune to supply chain shortages.

It does however make the world less vulnerable to them though, for example 200 years ago if a crop failed in your local region it could cause famine and death in your community, these days they just ship in some etc wheat from the other side of the world.

But to say globalisation should make the world immune is silly and unrealistic.


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## 3 hound (17 April 2022)

JohnDe said:


> It worked for 40 years



I know people that smoked cigarettes for 40 years then died of lung cancer. I also know people that lived off the hard work, sacrifice and inherited wealth of the forefathers for 40 years or more before the squandered it all.

What's your point?


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## rederob (17 April 2022)

3 hound said:


> Globalisation was meant to make the world immune to supply chain issues and shortages all while at the lowest possible cost to the consumer.
> 
> Another brilliant idea that ends up being the opposite of brilliant.



It's actually the opposite.
Globalisation is simply the difference between independence and *inter*dependence, and there is now a return to the concept of manufacturing *independence* so that countries don't suffer supply shocks.
Smart manufacturers overcome this problem by building in supply chain redundancies, and Tesla's battery purchasing arrangement is a prime example.
Russia's attack on Ukraine will certainly impact food security as the 2 nations are responsible for over a quarter of global wheat output.  On the industrial front Ukraine is a major contributor to  Europe's iron and steel manufacturing capacity.  
While iron and steel capacity is not necessarily tied to geography, agriculture is, so there is no quick fix to replacing lost agricultural production.


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## 3 hound (17 April 2022)

rederob said:


> It's actually the opposite.
> Globalisation is simply the difference between independence and *inter*dependence, and there is now a return to the concept of manufacturing *independence* so that countries don't suffer supply shocks.
> Smart manufacturers overcome this problem by building in supply chain redundancies, and Tesla's battery purchasing arrangement is a prime example.
> Russia's attack on Ukraine will certainly impact food security as the 2 nations are responsible for over a quarter of global wheat output.  On the industrial front Ukraine is a major contributor to  Europe's iron and steel manufacturing capacity.
> While iron and steel capacity is not necessarily tied to geography, agriculture is, so there is no quick fix to replacing lost agricultural production.



Your confusing globalisation with international trade. International trade has existed for about as long as there has been humans and will continue to exist as globalisation continues to fall apart in less than a generation or close to it.


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## rederob (17 April 2022)

3 hound said:


> Your confusing globalisation with international trade. International trade has existed for about as long as there has been humans and will continue to exist as globalisation continues to fall apart in less than a generation or close to it.



What do you think globalisation means?
It is you who is confused here.
Given that the very concept of "nations" is historically recent, you have further confused  the ancient concept of trade between people with trade between nations.
Furthermore, your idea that globalisation is falling apart is more confusion still as international alliances will foster strengthening of ties rather than weakening.


----------



## Dona Ferentes (17 April 2022)

The West’s ‘arsenal of democracy’ is stretched at crucial moment​


> Massive arms supplies to Ukraine are depleting Western armories just as governments fear they may need weapons for their own defence.




_Gen. Mark Milley, the chairman of the US Joint Chiefs of Staff, told Congress that the West has delivered 60,000 antitank weapons and 25,000 anti-aircraft weapons to Kyiv. The Pentagon is now laying plans to rush additional artillery, coastal defence drones and other materiel to Ukraine._

_Pentagon officials say that Kyiv is blowing through a week’s worth of deliveries of antitank munitions every day. It is also running short of usable aircraft as Russian airstrikes and combat losses take their toll.....

Kyiv will require far more Western support to beat back Russian forces gathering in the east, where relatively open terrain is less favourable to the defence. It will also need more sophisticated weapons, such as tanks and aircraft... Stout Ukrainian resistance has given Kyiv a reasonable chance of winning this war, but the cost of any victory, in equipment no less than lives, will be astounding._

_For the same reason, the war in Ukraine is a sobering preview of the problems the US itself would face in a conflict against Russia or China. If forced to go to war in Eastern Europe or the Western Pacific, Washington would spend down its stockpiles of missiles, precision-guided munitions and other critical capabilities in days or weeks. It would probably suffer severe losses of tanks, planes, ships and other assets that are sophisticated, costly and hard to replace_.....

_*Washington Post*_​


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## moXJO (17 April 2022)

3 hound said:


> I am not a soldier but why do you need to fight your enemy trapped inside a building. If you don't want to destroy the building to get them because the building can be used as an future asset surely you can just starve them out. It appears the Russians have a supply route and the Ukraine soldiers are isolated.
> 
> Either way it's horrifying to think what could happen.



Apparently they are pumping sewerage into the tunnel system to get them out.

No one is coming to save them so it's either "surrender or die". Ukraine can't afford the resources on a breakthrough of lines. 

But the defenders have brought time for the other cities to be fortified and evacuated as they have tied up Russian forces around Mariupol.


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## 3 hound (17 April 2022)

Don


rederob said:


> What do you think globalisation means?
> It is you who is confused here.
> Given that the very concept of "nations" is historically recent, you have further confused  the ancient concept of trade between people with trade between nations.
> Furthermore, your idea that globalisation is falling apart is more confusion still as international alliances will foster strengthening of ties rather than weakening.



I meant international as different people's in different places as has been done since ancient times. Yes nations is not the appropriate word but it would have done most people in an honest conversation that aren't nitpicking at words.

Don't project your confusion on to me. It sounds like you think the word globalisation is interchangeable with this practice.


----------



## 3 hound (17 April 2022)

moXJO said:


> Apparently they are pumping sewerage into the tunnel system to get them out.
> 
> No one is coming to save them so it's either "surrender or die". Ukraine can't afford the resources on a breakthrough of lines.
> 
> But the defenders have brought time for the other cities to be fortified and evacuated as they have tied up Russian forces around Mariupol.



A horror story unfolding.


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## Dona Ferentes (17 April 2022)

Gaps in the narrative .... nobody's fault but mine, I guess, for putting the weevil (a cereal pest) on ignore. 

Some of the replies make sense now, but that's the way its gotta be.


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## Dona Ferentes (17 April 2022)

moXJO said:


> Apparently they are pumping sewerage into the tunnel system to get them out.
> 
> No one is coming to save them so it's either "surrender or die". Ukraine can't afford the resources on a breakthrough of lines.
> 
> But the defenders have brought time for the other cities to be fortified and evacuated as they have tied up Russian forces around Mariupol.



I remember reading testimony from a civilian who managed to to flee Mariupol a week ago, along the lines of going through 15 Russki checkpoints on the flight to safety. So it would likely  be an impossibility to break through lines to provide relief.

from ISW:


> _The Russians and their proxies appear to be preparing to declare victory in the Battle of Mariupol, as Donetsk People’s Republic (DNR) head Denis Pushilin opened a United Russia party office in the city_




On the matter of stretched forces, I see that Ukrainian partisans have begun to operate behind Russian lines, especially in the open lands between Mariupol and Kherson.


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## Garpal Gumnut (17 April 2022)

Dona Ferentes said:


> Gaps in the narrative .... nobody's fault but mine, I guess, for putting the weevil (a cereal pest) on ignore.
> 
> Some of the replies make sense now, but that's the way its gotta be.



I must admit I am considering a long break from ASF due to the recent trolling from @3 hound , @JohnDe and @Iron Triangle 

Putting Trolls on ignore means that intelligent long term posters comments are hidden in "What's New", if the Trolls have posted

I believe the moderation could be more assertive from @Joe Blow and @Sean K .

This is a great disappointment to me as a long term member of ASF.

There is a difference between differing opinions, friendly and unfriendly banter AND Trolling. 

gg


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## Value Collector (17 April 2022)

rederob said:


> It's actually the opposite.
> Globalisation is simply the difference between independence and *inter*dependence, and there is now a return to the concept of manufacturing *independence* so that countries don't suffer supply shocks.
> Smart manufacturers overcome this problem by building in supply chain redundancies, and Tesla's battery purchasing arrangement is a prime example.
> Russia's attack on Ukraine will certainly impact food security as the 2 nations are responsible for over a quarter of global wheat output.  On the industrial front Ukraine is a major contributor to  Europe's iron and steel manufacturing capacity.
> While iron and steel capacity is not necessarily tied to geography, agriculture is, so there is no quick fix to replacing lost agricultural production.



I actually don’t even think globalisation is the main problem, if anything it was the move to “just in time manufacturing” that caused the system to not be able to cope with supply chains that slowed.

But Australia is struggling with supply chains that are local to, eg it’s impossible to get frozen chips for the last couple of months, apparently due to labour shortages due to covid isolations.

Of course the minute the supply chain slows because of international covid lock downs we blame globalisation, but exactly the same thing is happening locally, so I blame covid, not globalisation.


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## moXJO (17 April 2022)

I'm more of a "never ignore anyone".
Half the time there's common ground on other issues.


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## Value Collector (17 April 2022)

moXJO said:


> I'm more of a "never ignore anyone".
> Half the time there's common ground on other issues.



I don’t ignore just because I disagree with people, but I will ignore if the person is not approaching discussions with intellectual honesty or has their head cabbaged up with cynicism and just wants to grind their favourite axe.


----------



## againsthegrain (17 April 2022)

Garpal Gumnut said:


> I must admit I am considering a long break from ASF due to the recent trolling from @3 hound , @JohnDe and @Iron Triangle
> 
> Putting Trolls on ignore means that intelligent long term posters comments are hidden in "What's New", if the Trolls have posted
> 
> ...




2 of those accounts were made just around 2 weeks within of each other and in the last 4-5 weeks... coincidence?  maybe


----------



## Joe Blow (17 April 2022)

I've just taken a quick look at this thread. I have a couple of comments.



3 hound said:


> *Only an inhuman psychopath directly profiting from the war budget* could calculate that the Afghanistan war was a success. Then on your next breath claiming a small increase in the cost of living due to the Ukraine war is a small sacrifice compared to the suffering of the Ukraine people. *You are a fraud and a hypocrite.*




If you are going to participate in debate and discussion then keep it civil, don't put words in people's mouths, and back up your positions with well reasoned argument. If you are uncertain about what someone is saying, then ask them to clarify instead of going on the attack and hurling insults, which will just cause the level of debate to degenerate further.



Garpal Gumnut said:


> I must admit I am considering a long break from ASF due to the recent trolling from @3 hound , @JohnDe and @Iron Triangle
> 
> Putting Trolls on ignore means that intelligent long term posters comments are hidden in "What's New", if the Trolls have posted
> 
> ...




It's Easter GG. I've been taking a bit of a break. I think Sean has too. If a post goes over the line can you please report it. I think there is some minor trolling here, but it's also clearly an emotive topic, and this is causing some hand wringing, irrational debate and emotional outbursts, which is to be expected.

To all: Please keep it civil and constructive. Try and keep emotion out of the debate and be respectful and courteous to others, even when you disagree with them. I will not take kindly to any trolling or disruptive conduct. Have a happy Easter!


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## rederob (17 April 2022)

3 hound said:


> Don
> 
> I meant international as different people's in different places as has been done since ancient times. Yes nations is not the appropriate word but it would have done most people in an honest conversation that aren't nitpicking at words.
> 
> Don't project your confusion on to me. It sounds like you think the word globalisation is interchangeable with this practice.



Your points are back to front, and if you are going to suggest I am confused, then show it to be the case rather than accuse me of nitpicking.


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## JohnDe (17 April 2022)

Garpal Gumnut said:


> I must admit I am considering a long break from ASF due to the recent trolling from @3 hound , @JohnDe and @Iron Triangle
> 
> Putting Trolls on ignore means that intelligent long term posters comments are hidden in "What's New", if the Trolls have posted
> 
> ...



Don’t know what you’re talking about, I have never trolled you, and I haven’t been posting much lately.

Show me your concern so I can improve.


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## JohnDe (17 April 2022)

For those that can, enjoy your Easter break and remember the reasons.

Stay safe.


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## Smurf1976 (17 April 2022)

3 hound said:


> Globalisation was meant to make the world immune to supply chain issues and shortages all while at the lowest possible cost to the consumer.
> 
> Another brilliant idea that ends up being the opposite of brilliant.



Like most things it comes down to the issue that the initial change results in further change which renders the initial assumptions incorrect.

Simple example.

10 countries all produce commodity x and are independent.

Allowing trade between those 10 countries strengthens resilience since a major problem in any one of them can be at least partially offset by using surplus capacity in the others. Or via pricing they can all ration use a bit and share the pain.

Trouble is that you come back a few years later and find that of those 10 countries, only two of them still produce x at all since the other 8 couldn't compete economically. What you now have is total production extremely vulnerable to a single incident combined with the added political risk that those two now have a position of power they didn't have previously.

Globalisation isn't a new thing, it has come and gone previously and we're simply seeing a repeat of that cycle. If history's any guide then the turning point involves a major war - 1914 and WW1 marked the end of globalisation last time. Hence it's no surprise that if you look at industry in Australia, there's some pretty big stuff that happened immediately after that. Now we're back to a point of having not much industry, failing globalisation and the prospect of major war. The wheel goes around.


----------



## 3 hound (17 April 2022)

Smurf1976 said:


> Like most things it comes down to the issue that the initial change results in further change which renders the initial assumptions incorrect.
> 
> Simple example.
> 
> ...




That's not very optimistic.


----------



## basilio (17 April 2022)

Smurf1976 said:


> Like most things it comes down to the issue that the initial change results in further change which renders the initial assumptions incorrect.
> 
> Simple example.
> 
> ...




This is a very significant post.  Smurf is spot on with regard to the earlier expansion of international trade and globalisation.  This occurred world wide in the late 19th Century.  There were also a number of previous trading empires.
Check out the short short of globilization.









						A brief history of globalization
					

Globalization 4.0 is the theme of Davos 2019 - but what were the three earlier waves of global trade?




					www.weforum.org


----------



## basilio (17 April 2022)

Value Collector said:


> I actually don’t even think globalisation is the main problem, if anything it was the move to “just in time manufacturing” that caused the system to not be able to cope with supply chains that slowed.



Indeed.. And from an investment POV the catastrophe in Ukraine will have far reaching impact around the world. The example of Neon shortage is one area. I think the risk of mass social collapse with food shortages is also on the table with far more critical consequences

I truly wonder is anyone in any country is actually coming up with some way of replacing the lost grain from Ukraine with some other form of sustenance before the proverbial hits the fan.


----------



## 3 hound (17 April 2022)

basilio said:


> I truly wonder is anyone in any country is actually coming up with some way of replacing the lost grain from Ukraine with some other form of sustenance before the proverbial hits the fan.




I am sure all our politicians on both side see are right now feverishly working up several contingency plans with all branches of the government, the emergency services, the defence force, key farming groups, transport chiefs and the banking and  financial sector.

We are very fortunate that way.


----------



## Value Collector (17 April 2022)

basilio said:


> Indeed.. And from an investment POV the catastrophe in Ukraine will have far reaching impact around the world. The example of Neon shortage is one area. I think the risk of mass social collapse with food shortages is also on the table with far more critical consequences
> 
> I truly wonder is anyone in any country is actually coming up with some way of replacing the lost grain from Ukraine with some other form of sustenance before the proverbial hits the fan.



The grain issue is not that big of a deal, and can be easily fixed rather quickly if necessary, the simple fix is for people to eat less meat, 40% of the worlds grain gets fed to livestock in factory farms, and only 6% of soy beans are eaten by humans the majority are consumed by chickens and pigs.

If every one just ate a bit less meat, and maybe included a bit of tofu instead, there wouldn’t be a grain shortage.

Of course in reality that won’t happen, the rich nations will continue push the grain into factory farms, and out of the reach of the poorer nations.


----------



## basilio (18 April 2022)

3 hound said:


> I am sure all our politicians on both side see are right now feverishly working up several contingency plans with all branches of the government, the emergency services, the defence force, key farming groups, transport chiefs and the banking and  financial sector.
> 
> We are very fortunate that way.



Indeed... That must be the way we  operate surely ? I mean how could everyone seeing such an obvious critical problem not be working together to come up with contingency plans ?

Let me ask the flying pig formation for their take of the situation...


----------



## 3 hound (18 April 2022)

basilio said:


> Let me ask the flying pig formation for their take of the situation...





Report back with your findings, just the executive summary, the plans will be far too meticulously detailed to post in full.

I will standby and keep clicking the refresh button while I await your briefing.


----------



## Craton (21 April 2022)

Found the below on my Russia/China internet travels, also reported here.​UnionPay refuses to cooperate with Sberbank due to the risk of secondary sanctions – The Moscow Times​


> The Chinese payment system UnionPay refused to cooperate with Sberbank, so it will not issue its cards.  According to RBC, citing sources, UnionPay fears possible consequences due to cooperation with large Russian banks that have fallen under sanctions.  Bank employees were told about the decision of the Chinese payment system at a closed meeting.
> 
> UnionPay cards proved to be in demand in Russia after the start of wars in Ukraine when international payment systems, including Visa, Mastercard and JCB, refused to work in Russia.  The cards of these systems, issued by Russian banks, stopped working abroad, it became impossible to pay for purchases in foreign online stores with them.   UnionPay was the only international system left in the country.  It accounted for 1% of cards in circulation in 2020, which is about 2.7 million cards, according to the British company RBR.
> 
> ...


----------



## JohnDe (21 April 2022)

againsthegrain said:


> 2 of those accounts were made just around 2 weeks within of each other and in the last 4-5 weeks... coincidence?  maybe





 I’ve been a member since March 2020. 

GG makes an accusation, refuses to offer evidence, and then blocks so he can hide from the truth.

Ignorance is bliss, for some.


----------



## Dona Ferentes (21 April 2022)

meanwhile , in the real world

_Russian forces made minor advances in the ongoing offensive in eastern Ukraine on April 19, seizing several small towns and advancing into the key frontline towns of Rubizhne and Popasna. Russian forces continued major assaults with heavy air and artillery support but are continuing to build the logistics and command-and-control capabilities necessary for a larger offensive. Russian forces have not achieved any major breakthroughs, nor have they demonstrated any new capability to conduct multiple successful, simultaneous advances. Russian forces additionally made grinding progress against remaining Ukrainian defenders in Mariupol’s Azovstal Steel Works and announced plans for a May 9 Victory Day parade in the city – indicating Russian forces will declare victory in Mariupol by that date at the latest. 
- _*ISW*


----------



## Craton (21 April 2022)

basilio said:


> I started this thread in the* Business Investment Economics *thread to maybe focus on the  economic /social impact of the war.  For examples issues around the loss of Ukraine grain to world markets impacting on political/economic stability.
> 
> There are a number of threads on the conduct of the war and so on. I thought this one might focus on the above issues. I started it before the invasion when investors might have some consideration of the economic consequences. Frankly I think they are enormous.






Dona Ferentes said:


> meanwhile , in the real world
> 
> _Russian forces made minor advances in the ongoing offensive in eastern Ukraine on April 19, seizing several small towns and advancing into the key frontline towns of Rubizhne and Popasna. Russian forces continued major assaults with heavy air and artillery support but are continuing to build the logistics and command-and-control capabilities necessary for a larger offensive. Russian forces have not achieved any major breakthroughs, nor have they demonstrated any new capability to conduct multiple successful, simultaneous advances. Russian forces additionally made grinding progress against remaining Ukrainian defenders in Mariupol’s Azovstal Steel Works and announced plans for a May 9 Victory Day parade in the city – indicating Russian forces will declare victory in Mariupol by that date at the latest.
> - _*ISW*



@Dona Ferentes

As per @basilio's OP and post above, can we keep this thread just on *Business Investment Economics?*

I've been posting up "war reports" over on the Russian Invasion thread. Perhaps your above post would be better suited there?
Up to you, your call.


----------



## Craton (21 April 2022)

Dona Ferentes said:


> tell you what @Craton . At least I'm on message, rather than the post previous to mine. I have set  the screens and don't get General Chat, as I prefer to talk about stocks.  Sorry if I offended you.



No offence taken and my post wasn't intended to upset either.

Certainly the post before yours wasn't appropriate and I'm sure the man with the big stick, is keeping an eye over proceedings in this thread and has taken note.
Please don't think I've singled you out, just my attempt to keep things organised between the two threads.

E.g. I've heard online discussion that if the hostilities continued into 2023, especially the shelling and bombing, Ukraine probably wouldn't get crops into the ground.

Even if the conflict did end now, the sheer cost of rebuilding will be in astronomical. The mental scarring will be intergenerational IMHO and so the economic scale of getting anywhere near back to normal, boggles the mind.

I also heard that Putin and his croonies have taken/stolen an estimated $1 trillion from the Russian coffers for their own personal gain. Makes me wonder how many luxury yacht makers and mansion builders will go out of business.
Seriously though, what impact has Putin and his Siloviki excesses had on the financial and business world?
One could reasonably fathom that those excesses inflated the price of luxury goods and if nothing else, promoted corruption and dishonest business (and political) practices.

The spread of that corruption as we've seen, has transgressed borders and again, to the deteriment of the average person's quality of living and buying power.


----------



## moXJO (21 April 2022)

JohnDe said:


> I’ve been a member since March 2020.
> 
> GG makes an accusation, refuses to offer evidence, and then blocks so he can hide from the truth.
> 
> Ignorance is bliss, for some.



That's when covid started in Australia..... suss


----------



## moXJO (21 April 2022)

Possibly fantastic news if it isn't a trap or fake news.



Possible that Russia may be running out of resources and need to prioritise other areas. Or that they have come to the realisation that they shouldn't be caught up on one area.

Well done to those Ukraine fighters. Will go down in history.


Expanded (top account is pro Ukraine)


----------



## Dona Ferentes (21 April 2022)

moXJO said:


> Possibly fantastic news if it isn't a trap or fake news.
> 
> 
> 
> ...




As I understand it, the Black Sea fleet Naval infantry was in the fight at Mariupol and hence any move against Odesa couldn't happen. Then the Moskva went down. Also the Chechens were there, but probably less effective than some thought. 

A whole lot of reconsideration happening?


----------



## Craton (22 April 2022)

Thus Mariupol, and indeed probably all Russia's current/ongoing conflicts, has caused Putin to weigh up his "moral sunk costs".

Keeping in mind that Russia's high priest has given his blessing to inflict terror, ah I mean, for the "special military operation".



> The problem of moral sunk costs pervades decision-making with respect to war. In the terms of just war theory, it may seem that incurring a large moral cost results in permissiveness: if a just goal may be reached at a small cost beyond that which was deemed proportionate at the outset of war, how can it be reasonable to require cessation?
> 
> On this view, moral costs already expended could have major implications for the ethics of conflict termination. Discussion of sunk costs in moral theorizing about war has settled into four camps: Quota, Prospect, Addition, and Discount.



A nice counter to the above is the "moral sunk costs fallacy fallacy". No not a typo:



> Don’t cry over spilled milk, or so the expression goes. The so called sunk cost fallacy claims that there is a bias humans have to follow through on an endeavor if we have already invested time, effort or money into it, whether or not the current costs outweigh the benefits.






> It is irrational to use irrecoverable costs as rationale for making a present decision.
> If we acted rationally, only future costs and benefits would be taken into account, because regardless of what we have already invested, we will not get it back whether or not we follow through on the decision.



My take is that moral sunk costs, at an emotive level, is a "thing" that can be applied to all investments across the board.

So then and just focusing on the two in conflict:
Russia has two options, either carry on as before (and Russia will as the moral compass has left the building) plus, it has already sunk huge amounts into gaining territories in Georgia, Moldova and Ukraine or withdraw. Highly unlikely but maybe after Victory Day [9 May] and spin that into some semblance of leadership and sound economic management.

Ukraine has only one option; defend at *all costs*, continue to throw everything at the invaders including (literally) the kitchen sink and don't spare the rod!


----------



## moXJO (22 April 2022)

Ukraine is being fed arms from the rest of the world. At some point Russia has to have used its quota that was allocated to use in Ukraine. The sanctions must be cutting into their ability to resupply.

Seeing lots of evidence of Russian troops leaving all equipment as they go AWOL as well.


----------



## noirua (22 April 2022)

Ukraine war: Arizona sends charity estimated $400,000 worth of tactical, defensive supplies
					

The charity Evil Cannot Enter Heaven raised an additional $75,000 from individual donations over the past two months.




					www.foxnews.com


----------



## Craton (23 April 2022)

Indian's position within the context of this "Clayton's WWIII"

From the India Economic Conclave 22nd Apr 2022.



> On the day 2nd of India Economic Conclave: 'Russia is already facing a hard cash crunch but this war had to happen still India is in good position', says Geopolitical Strategist, Peter Zeihan in an interesting conversation with MK Anand (MD & CEO, Times Network) on the 2022 India Economic Conclave



"One way or another, the world will have to get used to four to five million barrels *less* of Russian crude, later this year."

Have the markets started to factor in a pending oil shortage and how that will impact on world economic output?


----------



## Dona Ferentes (23 April 2022)

moXJO said:


> Possibly fantastic news if it isn't a trap or fake news.




fake news

this is the seating arrangement


----------



## Dona Ferentes (23 April 2022)

Craton said:


> "One way or another, the world will have to get used to four to five million barrels *less* of Russian crude, later this year."
> 
> Have the markets started to factor in a pending oil shortage and how that will impact on world economic output?



Schlumberger and Halliburton have left Russia. How do they keep their wells operating, let alone drill without them?

 US production would fall dramatically if those two companies decided to not operate in the US. They are vital to world oil production. Russia doesn’t have that expertise, let alone the equipment.

Optimising flow from an oil well is a tricky business


----------



## 3 hound (24 April 2022)

Dona Ferentes said:


> Halliburton have left Russia. How do they keep their wells operating, let alone drill without them?





Is this a joke, Halliburton one of the most immoral corrupt companies around is pretending to have a moral compass.

Something doesn't add up.


----------



## Craton (26 April 2022)

A two part expose by Aussie "Perun" an excellent piece on "The Long War" aka cost of war and sustaining it.

14 Apr 2022
Part 1: The Price of War - Can Russia afford a long conflict?


> Description:
> So apparently hour long presentations on defence investment weren't dry enough, so I'm dusting off the Economics degree (strongly recommended when pairing with military or strategic studies) to ask the question of what the economic situation may be if this war drags on.





22 Apr 2022
Part 2: Ukraine vs Russian - Who wins a war of hardware attrition?


> Description: Continuing on from our look at the relative economic power of Russia as compared to Ukraine and its supporters in NATO, today I look a little more at the question of military equipment resupply specifically.


----------



## Craton (27 April 2022)

First signs of stress in the West's armament supply chain?

Forbes from early Mar 2022 and this from 27 Apr 2022  Defense News reads in part:



> WASHINGTON ― The U.S. may not be able to make more of the shoulder-fired Stinger anti-aircraft missiles it has been sending to Ukraine until at least 2023 due to parts and materials shortages, the head of manufacturer Raytheon Technologies said Tuesday.
> 
> The revelation, during Raytheon’s quarterly earnings call, underscores the challenge facing the Pentagon and defense industry as they seek to boost arms production in response to the ongoing Russia-Ukraine conflict. The bottleneck is fueling recommendations from Capitol Hill that President Joe Biden invoke the Defense Production Act to prioritize supplies of components for weapons like the Stinger.




Further in the article:



> Echoing a Center for Strategic and International Studies assessment, Blumenthal said the U.S. had likely sent Ukraine one-third of its Javelins and that it would take a year to ramp up Javelin production and 32 months to replenish Javelin supplies.
> “The cupboard is empty, or it will be very, very shortly unless the president invokes the Defense Production Act to provide that demand signal on an expedited basis,” Blumenthal said.




So the costs mount up. With the US coughing up around $2.26 trillion on borrowed money in the 20 year Afghanistan effort, that's not including the lost and ongoing human costs, I'd reckon the West's combined contribution to Ukraine could already be surpassing that eye watering number.

What really is eye watering though is the projected interest cost for that little dance in Afghanistan:



> We’ll keep incurring costs long after President Biden's pullout from Afghanistan is complete. Naturally, the United States has financed the Afghan war with borrowed money. Brown University researchers estimate that more than $500 billion in interest has already been paid (included in the $2.26 trillion total sum), and they figure that by 2050 the cost of interest alone on our Afghan war debt could reach $6.5 trillion. That amounts to $20,000 for each and every U.S. citizen.


----------



## gartley (27 April 2022)

Scomos bushmasters finally arrived in Poland. Wonder how long they last out in the field.  Appears quite a few arms supplied by west falling into Russian hands...


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## 3 hound (27 April 2022)

gartley said:


> Scomos bushmasters finally arrived in Poland. Wonder how long they last out in the field.  Appears quite a few arms supplied by west falling into Russian hands...
> View attachment 140917




Have we switched to talking about Afghanistan?


----------



## Dona Ferentes (27 April 2022)

not from the Guardian,

(PS _find the declining power with bottomless resentment and thousands of nuclear warheads <_Martin Wolf_>)_


----------



## noirua (27 April 2022)

Russia shuts off gas supplies to Poland and Bulgaria
					

Russia has cut off natural gas supplies to Poland and Bulgaria, dramatically escalating its response to Western sanctions imposed on Moscow over the war in Ukraine.




					edition.cnn.com


----------



## Smurf1976 (27 April 2022)

3 hound said:


> Is this a joke, Halliburton one of the most immoral corrupt companies around is pretending to have a moral compass.
> 
> Something doesn't add up.



It's about technical ability, ethics or not.


----------



## Craton (28 April 2022)

Some interesting numbers with1000's of businesses exiting or suspending business with Russia, possibly leading to recession in the short term.

From: $1 TRILLION Estimated Loss of Business Due to WAR. Top 10 Company Losses.


*Company**Estimated loss and or write down/off*Netflix (Online Streaming)$54.0 billion (stock valuation drop due to losing over 700k in subs)BP (Oil/Gas -UK)$25 billion (exit and loss of a third of reserves)Shell (Oil/Gas - UK)$5.0 billionExxon Mobil (Oil/Gas - USA)$4.0 billionSociete Generale (French Bank)$3.1 billion (write off)Citigroup (Banking/Financial Services)$3.0 billion (in losses)Renalt (French Car Manufacturer)$2.42 billion (write down)Carlsberg (Brewer)$1.4 billionAB InBev (Brewer)$1.1 billionMcDonalds (Fast Food)$600 million (plus $50 million to be paid to employees)


----------



## Craton (28 April 2022)

Microsoft has released a report on the "hybrid war" about Russian cyber warfare and hacking attempts that started as early as Mar 2021.


> Today, we released a report detailing the relentless and destructive Russian cyberattacks we’ve observed in a hybrid war against Ukraine, and what we’ve done to help protect Ukrainian people and organizations. We believe it’s important to share this information so that policymakers and the public around the world know what’s occurring, and so others in the security community can continue to identify and defend against this activity. All of this work is ultimately focused on protecting civilians from attacks that can directly impact their lives and their access to critical services.



As a Ukraine supporter, Australia will be an even higher priority on the already targeted list.

21 Apr 2022: our ACSC on Russian sponsored and Criminal cyber threats.



> The cybersecurity authorities of the United States, Australia, Canada, New Zealand, and the United Kingdom are releasing this joint Cybersecurity Advisory (CSA). The intent of this joint CSA is to warn organizations that Russia’s invasion of Ukraine has altered the geopolitical balance in ways that could expose organizations both within and beyond the region to increased malicious cyber activity. This activity may occur as a response to the unprecedented economic costs imposed on Russia as well as materiel support provided by the United States and U.S. allies and partners.




Also from the ACSC and just on one of the losses here in Australia 2020-2021:



> Self-reported losses from cybercrime total more than *$33 billion*.




Little wonder Scomo increased funding to the Signals Directorate. Pity the spin was China focused.



> Australia’s top cyber spy agency will double in size with its budget boosted by $9.9 billion, as the Morrison government confronts the rising cyber threat posed by China, other malign countries and hackers to safeguard national sovereignty.


----------



## noirua (28 April 2022)

Putin vows that Ukraine war goals will be 'unconditionally fulfilled'
					

Russian President Vladimir Putin on Wednesday claimed Moscow’s war goals in Ukraine will be “unconditionally fulfilled” despite discussions this week amongst Ukraine’s allies to further support Kyiv’s government with weapons in the fight.




					www.foxnews.com


----------



## Craton (29 April 2022)

More Putin mafia *cough* business tactics.

From DW


> The Kremlin is exerting pressure to bring as many companies back to Russia as possible. Using questionable methods. The German automotive supplier Continental, for example, was forced to restart production at its Kaluga plant southwest of Moscow - due to the threat of reprisals.


----------



## noirua (29 April 2022)

Why Ukraine's Holocaust survivors are taking shelter in Israel​








						Why Ukraine's Holocaust survivors are taking shelter in Israel
					

As of this writing, over 5 million Ukrainians have moved abroad to escape the Russian onslaught, according to the United Nations; that includes Holocaust survivors who have now moved to Israel. Here are some of the latest updates.




					www.foxnews.com


----------



## Craton (30 April 2022)

April 2022 World Bank report. Outlook on how the conflict is impacting on commodity markets, 2022 to 2024.
Investing/trading in the appropriate stocks/markets might offset the hikes across all price points.

From the report, here's a selection of 2022 forecast percentage changes from 2021.
Note the negative commodities at the end over the same period.

Coal - Australia: up 81.1%

Crude oil - Brent: up 42.0%

Natural gas - Europe: up 111.0%

Fertilizer - Potassium Chloride: up 147.4%

Coffee - Arabica: up 21.9%

Meat/chicken: up 41.8%

Palm oil: up 45.9%

Cotton - A Index: up 39.0%

Wheat - US HRW: up 42.7%

Aluminium: up 37.5%

Nickel: up 51.6%

*Timber (-4.5%) along with Tea, Rice and Silver are in the negative.*



> *WASHINGTON, April 26, 2022*—The war in Ukraine has dealt a major shock to commodity markets, altering global patterns of trade, production, and consumption in ways that will keep prices at historically high levels through the end of 2024, according to the World Bank’s latest _Commodity Markets Outlook_ report.


----------



## noirua (5 May 2022)

Warning!  Contains graphic images.








						Image appears to show bodies of Russian soldiers arranged in letter 'Z' after Ukraine recaptures village
					

A grisly image has emerged purportedly showing bodies of Russian soldiers arranged in the letter “Z” after Ukraine’s military recaptured a village in the country’s east.




					www.foxnews.com


----------



## Telamelo (5 May 2022)

Putin could make ‘declaration of war’ on May 9​
The crisis in Ukraine could be about to escalate dramatically, with experts bracing for a major announcement from Russia on May 9.



			https://www.news.com.au/world/europe/why-experts-believe-putin-could-make-declaration-of-war-on-may-9/news-story/d1e679b15130f6e9bb6435c45ccf7fca


----------



## Craton (5 May 2022)

Physical gestures and posture seem to be at odds so...
Putin’s Cancer Surgery Fact Or Fiction? Will Ex-FSB Chief Patrushev Be Given Charge Of Ukraine War?​


----------



## Craton (5 May 2022)

My previous post could be fake news but if not...








						Is Putin Preparing To Hand Over Power To Undergo Cancer Surgery?
					

A spokesperson for the U.S. Department of State told us they "don't have anything to offer" on the rumor.




					www.snopes.com


----------



## Dona Ferentes (7 May 2022)

Since the beginning of February, the US committed to giving Ukraine 5,500 Javelin systems, which are produced by US defence contractors Raytheon and Lockheed Martin and are each worth about $US178,000.









						Why the world's weapons makers aren't yet making big bucks off the war in Ukraine
					

When Russia launched its invasion of Ukraine at the end of February, the stock prices of many of the world's biggest arms manufacturers spiked. However, most of the hardware being sent to Ukraine is coming from donor nations' existing inventories.




					www.abc.net.au


----------



## JohnDe (7 May 2022)




----------



## basilio (9 May 2022)

Should the West fight to the last Ukrainian  city ?  How do we resolve the war before Ukraine is bombed back to the Stone Age ?

Some food for thought here.

Further arming Ukraine will only destroy it. The west must act to end this war now​Angus Roxburgh


By providing arms but avoiding military intervention western leaders are prolonging this hideous conflict. Talks are the best way out


A theatre destroyed during conflict in Mariupol, Ukraine, 25 April 2022. Photograph: Alexander Ermochenko/Reuters
Wed 27 Apr 2022 15.00 BSTLast modified on Thu 28 Apr 2022 12.48 BS

https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2022/apr/27/ukraine-war-end-putin-russia-talks#comments
421
Few people in the west doubt that Ukraine is fighting a just war. Russia’s invasion was entirely unprovoked. Whatever complaints it may have had about Nato expansion or Ukraine’s mistreatment of Russians in Donbas, nobody had attacked Russia, and nobody was planning to. Vladimir Putin launched a straightforward war of aggression and territorial conquest.

It follows that supporting Ukraine is the right thing to do. But it is not at all clear that the kind of support we are giving (and not giving) is the right way to go about preserving the Ukrainian nation.

The longer this war rages on, the more Ukrainians will flee their homeland, and the more devastation will be wrought upon their homes, cities, industry and economy. Yet the west’s current approach of supporting Ukraine’s war aim of defeating the aggressor, and providing arms for that purpose while pointedly avoiding direct military intervention, is guaranteed to prolong the war. Russia’s progress may be slowed, but it’s highly unlikely to be stopped, far less pushed out of Ukraine, and in the meantime the grinding destruction and hideous war crimes will continue.









						Further arming Ukraine will only destroy it. The west must act to end this war now | Angus Roxburgh
					

By providing arms but avoiding military intervention western leaders are prolonging this hideous conflict, says former BBC Moscow correspondent Angus Roxburgh




					www.theguardian.com


----------



## Craton (9 May 2022)

Doesn't help the current situation but as an optimist and assuming Ukraine succeeds in ousting the Russians, the rebuild could have a global positive. Along with trade restarting/re-opening and the employment up tick, a more unified Europe bodes well for increased security, trade and mutual co-operation.


----------



## moXJO (9 May 2022)

basilio said:


> Should the West fight to the last Ukrainian  city ?  How do we resolve the war before Ukraine is bombed back to the Stone Age ?
> 
> Some food for thought here.
> 
> ...



Putin needs to go first.


----------



## Craton (10 May 2022)

moXJO said:


> Putin needs to go first.



Yep, he along with all the other "leaders" that do his bidding, ergo the one in Belarus, Chechnya, Serbia etc and those in the PMC (Wagner Group) et al.


----------



## moXJO (10 May 2022)

Another problem this war will cause is a complete rethink by the Russians of how they run their military. They will most likely restructure tactics and training.


----------



## Dona Ferentes (10 May 2022)

moXJO said:


> Another problem this war will cause is a complete rethink by the Russians of how they run their military. They will most likely restructure tactics and training.



the only way they restructure is by purging leadership.


----------



## Dona Ferentes (10 May 2022)

> Putin had three general options for his Victory Day address:
> 
> declare some sort of Russian victory,
> make a policy change to ramp up the war effort in some way (such as by calling for a larger-scale mobilization or formally declaring war on Ukraine), or
> what he chose—to pursue a steady state narrative and reinforce the Kremlin’s existing framing (and resourcing) of the war.



So the grinding down continues.


----------



## moXJO (10 May 2022)

Dona Ferentes said:


> the only way they restructure is by purging leadership.



They have to be self aware that their is a glaring problem with their military tactics. 

Hopefully they don't get a second chance anyway.


----------



## Belli (10 May 2022)

It was pointed out by one commentator that there were about 10,000 troops in the May Day parade.  That is at the low end estimates of the number of Russian KIA in Ukraine.  Add in the Ukrainian military and civilian casualties then the appalling waste of life in this conflict can begin to be comprehended.


----------



## gartley (10 May 2022)

Interesting perspective from US Colonel Richard  Black with regard to things which is somewhat different to the US/Western narrative:


----------



## noirua (13 May 2022)

Drone footage shows the aftermath.  Russian army vehicles, including as many as three dozen tanks, were blown to smithereens as the battalion gathered to make the crossing
https://twitter.com/Telegraph/status/1525028448212746242/photo/1


----------



## divs4ever (13 May 2022)

noirua said:


> View attachment 141610
> 
> Drone footage shows the aftermath.  Russian army vehicles, including as many as three dozen tanks, were blown to smithereens as the battalion gathered to make the crossing




 how do you know that  ??

 the Ukraine tanks ( except for the odd Abrams ) are precisely the same chassis  the Soviets designed  decades back and the Russians use as well ( with different add-ons ) ( THAT is why the big Zs painted are on them )


----------



## noirua (14 May 2022)

divs4ever said:


> how do you know that  ??
> 
> the Ukraine tanks ( except for the odd Abrams ) are precisely the same chassis  the Soviets designed  decades back and the Russians use as well ( with different add-ons ) ( THAT is why the big Zs painted are on them )



You will have to complain to Fox TV and the Telegraph about this.  Mind you, I spy a tank with a 'V' on it - joint second from the right.


----------



## Garpal Gumnut (14 May 2022)

noirua said:


> You will have to complain to Fox TV and the Telegraph about this.  Mind you, I spy a tank with a 'V' on it - joint second from the right.



I find that when some complain to Fox and the Telegraph it really changes them both, and to a large extent the world. 

gg


----------



## Belli (14 May 2022)

Maybe the UK Ministry of Defence knows.  They have kind of, you know, spies.


----------



## basilio (14 May 2022)

David Attenborough on the life cycle of the Russian Tank.
Droll...


----------



## Belli (14 May 2022)

basilio said:


> David Attenborough on the life cycle of the Russian Tank.




To clarify it is *not *David Attenborough but an impersonator.


----------



## divs4ever (14 May 2022)

UNAWARE UKRAINIAN TROOPS MISTAKE AN APPROACHING RUSSIAN TANK FOR ONE OF THEIR OWN PART 2OF2



 i might have  brought in the ' charter boat ' reference  ( that isn't ONE tank , look carefully it is a column of them )  but those guys were busy messing around  .


----------



## basilio (14 May 2022)

Belli said:


> To clarify it is *not *David Attenborough but an impersonator.



True.. However, according to the comment under clip on You Tube, David Attenborough was delighted with the  Deep Fake spoof and approved of it.




                          SirBaconBoi                      ​ 2 days ago

   Unfortunately this parody was used with Deepfake and AI to make it seem as if David Attenborough himself is narrating but it’s not real—- but the funny thing is, David Attenborough fully approved!   Regardless— it’s excellent! Go Ukraine!


----------



## noirua (14 May 2022)

divs4ever said:


> UNAWARE UKRAINIAN TROOPS MISTAKE AN APPROACHING RUSSIAN TANK FOR ONE OF THEIR OWN PART 2OF2
> 
> 
> 
> i might have  brought in the ' charter boat ' reference  ( that isn't ONE tank , look carefully it is a column of them )  but those guys were busy messing around  .




That's annoying the video ended at the vital moment.


----------



## Dona Ferentes (14 May 2022)

Because its fake? The close figure doesn't react to the blast?


----------



## divs4ever (14 May 2022)

noirua said:


> That's annoying the video ended at the vital moment.



 well ( for some reason ) part one shows the person holding the phone ( camera ) probably survived   

part one was only a very short clip but i did not hear machine gun-fire so hopefully all those soldiers surrendered safely 

 ( because if i was caught in the open by a group of tanks  , that would be one of my early options ..'cos my army reserves RSM [ when i was in them ] would have been incredibly angry ,  i got caught out like that )


----------



## divs4ever (14 May 2022)

Dona Ferentes said:


> Because its fake? The close figure doesn't react to the blast?



depends on the person , some freeze in fright until the pressure wave hits them , there is a very short part one (  a few seconds after  that , but not very educational , to my eyes )


UNAWARE UKRAINIAN TROOPS MISTAKE AN APPROACHING RUSSIAN TANK FOR ONE OF THEIR OWN PART 1OF2​


 a tiny chance there will be extra clips later ( but don't hold your breath )


----------



## divs4ever (14 May 2022)

BTW the whole war is  a distraction for a collapsing EU/UK economy 

 don't forget to watch the financial/business sector as well  ( unimportant stuff like the price of oil  , stalled international shipping  etc etc )


----------



## againsthegrain (14 May 2022)

divs4ever said:


> BTW the whole war is  a distraction for a collapsing EU/UK economy
> 
> don't forget to watch the financial/business sector as well  ( unimportant stuff like the price of oil  , stalled international shipping  etc etc )




So Uk/Eu are in on it with Putin together?


----------



## divs4ever (15 May 2022)

againsthegrain said:


> So Uk/Eu are in on it with Putin together?



 it appears to me  , one side is being played like a fiddle  , but which is it  and who is playing the fiddle  

 it MIGHT be the US throwing the EU  to the wolves , to save itself  ,

 it might be Russia to prepare for the rise of China and India 

 it might be the EU  so as to become a  'world government ' in a combination with the UN and WHO ( the ultimate EU bailout )

 all war is based on deception  and the world has been deceived massively for at least three years 

 and 'good cop, bad cop' is a standard play in Queensland ( and elsewhere ) for decades 

( the suckers might be the masses )


----------



## divs4ever (15 May 2022)

here we are ( some of us ) worried  about nuclear Armageddon  or biological Armageddon or climate Armageddon , and the real danger is total global economic collapse


----------



## Belli (15 May 2022)

P*** weak rationale provided in a vain attempt to extract ones self from a crazy notion.  Some appear to hold to the comcept of "When you're in a hole, keep digging!"


----------



## Belli (15 May 2022)

From speech by UK Defence Sectary of 9 May.









						Speech by Defence Secretary on Russia’s invasion of Ukraine
					

Defence Secretary Ben Wallace MP gave a speech at the National Army Museum, London, on Russia’s illegal and unprovoked invasion of Ukraine.




					www.gov.uk
				




"Thirdly, inadequate equipment and support. Russian vehicles had not been maintained properly and immobilised many logistics vehicles, leading to cheap tyres being blown out and truck axle hub failures, all due to poor maintenance or the money for that maintenance being taken elsewhere.


As an aside, the sheer amount of footage from Ukrainian drones suggests to me that they also lack wider air defence and counter-UAV system.


Almost none of their vehicles contain situational awareness and digital battle management. *Vehicles are frequently found with 1980s paper maps of Ukraine in them.*


But it’s not just ground forces. *‘GPS’ receivers have been found taped to the dashboards of downed Russian SU-34s so the pilots knew where they were, due to the poor quality of their own systems."*

For a supposedly modern military this is astounding but I guess if you flog your equipment on Ebay it's possible. 

I have read elsewhere many Russian troops are now being issued with Mosin (bolt action rifles developed in the 1800's)  and amazingly there are apparently gofundme pages to supply basic items such as reflex sites or pocket knives.


----------



## divs4ever (15 May 2022)

Belli said:


> P*** weak rationale provided in a vain attempt to extract ones self from a crazy notion.  Some appear to hold to the comcept of "When you're in a hole, keep digging!"



 well if they dug sideways attempting to form an upward ramp  , that MIGHT work  , however that doesn't seem to be an option being considered  , currently 

 so far it looks to me deeper and deeper  and hoping heavy rain doesn't fall  ( or maybe full of water IS the strategy  so they can swim to the top edge )


----------



## moXJO (16 May 2022)

It


Dona Ferentes said:


> Because its fake? The close figure doesn't react to the blast?



It's real. Thought I posted this before. There's video of the aftermath as well. Ukrainians standing around thinking the Russian tank was one of there's. Just before the tank rolls up one of the Ukrainians questions if it's one of theirs.


----------



## Telamelo (26 May 2022)

Nervous times indeed for Europe..









						Unpredictable Trajectory & Hypersonic Speed — Russia Says Its Sarmat ICBM Can Reduce Adversaries To ‘Nuclear Craters’
					

Last month, Russia successfully test-launched its Intercontinental Ballistic Missile (ICBM) Sarmat amid an escalation in hostilities with Ukraine. Moscow has since used it to project power and issue covert warnings to its adversaries. TWO ‘Super Weapons’ That Even USA Lacks – Is Russia’s Use Of...




					eurasiantimes.com


----------



## Dona Ferentes (30 May 2022)

Russia invades Ukraine, countries respond. Sanctions imposed.

Western companies leasing to Russian airlines have their planes seized. And now China figures it has to take a side.









						China Closes Airspace to Russian Airbus, Boeing Aircraft
					

Find out why China is prohibiting some Russian Boeing and Airbus aircraft from flying through its territory.




					airwaysmag.com
				




As they say, this is a developing story


----------



## noirua (2 June 2022)

1 June 2022


----------



## Dona Ferentes (5 June 2022)

basilio said:


> The risk of Russian invasion of Ukraine is now approaching certainty.
> 
> What implications are there for investment  markets ?



_and now 101 days in, since the eastern horde spilled across Ukrainian lands_

*Ukraine's central bank has more than doubled its interest rate to 25% to the highest level for any European country.  *The move is intended to slow soaring inflation and prevent a further collapse of its currency following Russia's invasion in February.

The World Bank predicts that Ukraine's economy could shrink by as much as 45% this year.
The rate of inflation - or the cost of living - has risen to 17% in Ukraine and is on track to hit 20% this year, according to the country's central bank.
The National Bank of Ukraine said the benchmark interest rate increase - from 10% to 25% - would help protect citizens' savings from being eaten by soaring inflation.
Ukraine's currency, the hryvnia, has also come under heavy pressure since Russia's invasion, falling sharply in value. The central bank said it hoped the rate rise would ease some of that strain and stabilise the currency.
It is Ukraine's first rate increase since the war broke out, with the bank signalling it would move to reduce rates again once inflation was back under control.
More than $100bn of infrastructure damage to Ukrainian cities has been caused by artillery fire and airstrikes, according to the Kyiv School of Economics, while 14 million citizens have been forced to flee their homes.
To mount its military defence, and support citizens who have lost their livelihoods, the government has rapidly increased its spending, pushing the budget deficit up 27% month on month to $7.7bn in May, according to Kyiv-based investment bank Dragon Capital. Banks have also been forced to accept that loans made to businesses in territory now controlled by Russia will probably never be repaid, another huge financial blow to the country's economy.


----------



## noirua (6 June 2022)

Ukraine war: Another Russian general killed by Ukrainian forces - reports
					

Russian state media said Major General Roman Kutuzov was the latest commander killed in fighting.



					www.bbc.co.uk
				











						Live updates: Russia's war in Ukraine
					

Russia is intensifying its efforts to gain control of eastern Ukraine, with heavy fighting in the Donbas regions of Donetsk and Luhansk. Follow here for live updates.




					edition.cnn.com


----------



## Telamelo (6 June 2022)

https://www.news.com.au/world/europe/vladimir-putin-warns-of-escalation-if-us-europe-continues-to-supply-ukraine-military-with-arms/news-story/43ec46ae94c0cab7e53d288e89e76216


----------



## Dona Ferentes (16 June 2022)

shame people seem to be suffering fatigue. War crimes still happening, as are politics. Europe is suffering the usual sclerotic argy -bargy.
I'd like Australia to send 100 Hawkei vehicles. (At least 2 Bushmasters have been blown up)


----------



## 3 hound (16 June 2022)

There was a huge shock when people realised how effective mechanised warfare was at killing during WWI because there was no precedent for it.  I think people are feeling a similar way now seeing how effective the latest (non-nuclear) weapons and strategies are in Ukraine.


----------



## 3 hound (16 June 2022)

Don't know if this has been covered already. US now admits to 46 US military bio-labs in Ukraine after originally denying it and calling it Russian propaganda.


----------



## noirua (21 June 2022)




----------



## noirua (21 June 2022)

Russian Journalist Raises $103.5 Million for Ukrainian Kids
					

Dmitry Muratov auctioned his Nobel Peace Prize medal for $103.5 million to help children displaced by the war in Ukraine




					time.com


----------



## 3 hound (21 June 2022)

noirua said:


> Russian Journalist Raises $103.5 Million for Ukrainian Kids
> 
> 
> Dmitry Muratov auctioned his Nobel Peace Prize medal for $103.5 million to help children displaced by the war in Ukraine
> ...



While the west bans Russian civilians from participating in international sport.


----------



## Dona Ferentes (21 June 2022)

3 hound said:


> While the west bans Russian civilians from participating in international sport.



yeah mate, just another enormous war crime.


----------



## 3 hound (21 June 2022)

Dona Ferentes said:


> yeah mate, just another enormous war crime.



That's a bit over the top.


----------



## noirua (23 June 2022)

Ukrainian Kamikaze drone attack sparks fire at Russian oil refinery​Jun 22, 2022


----------



## noirua (29 June 2022)

Telegraph World News

@TelegraphWorld
June 27, 2022
Vladimir Putin told Emmanuel Macron he would rather ‘play ice hockey’ than hold peace talks
The Russian president’s dismissive aside came at the end of a tense and often surreal nine-minute conversation with Mr Macron to be aired in a documentary on Thursday on France 2, the main state TV channel


----------



## noirua (29 June 2022)

noirua said:


> Telegraph World News
> @TelegraphWorld
> June 27, 2022
> Vladimir Putin told Emmanuel Macron he would rather ‘play ice hockey’ than hold peace talks
> The Russian president’s dismissive aside came at the end of a tense and often surreal nine-minute conversation with Mr Macron to be aired in a documentary on Thursday on France 2, the main state TV channel











						Vladimir Putin told Emmanuel Macron he would rather ‘play ice hockey’ than hold peace talks
					

Russian leader made the dismissive comments during a tense phone call with the French president just four days before invasion of Ukraine




					www.telegraph.co.uk


----------



## noirua (5 July 2022)

Opinion | Why the Donbass is the Key to Putin’s Gambit in Ukraine
					

The disputed border regions are important to Putin only as a means to get what he really wants.




					www.politico.com


----------



## waterbottle (5 July 2022)

Germany Considers Allowing Bailouts For Energy Firms | OilPrice.com
					

Germany is considering amendments that would allow the government to bail out struggling energy firms




					oilprice.com
				




Looks like it's crunch time for the Germans.
How much pain will they accept just to keep a futile war going?


----------



## Dona Ferentes (6 July 2022)

noirua said:


> Opinion | Why the Donbass is the Key to Putin’s Gambit in Ukraine
> 
> 
> The disputed border regions are important to Putin only as a means to get what he really wants.
> ...



*Russia’s stated objectives in *its invasion of Ukraine remain regime change in Kyiv and the truncation of the sovereignty of any Ukrainian state that survives the Russian attack despite Russian military setbacks and rhetoric hinting at a reduction in war aims following those defeats.

Russian Security Council Secretary Nikolai Patrushev stated on 05 July that the Russian military operation in Ukraine will continue until Russia achieves its goals of protecting civilians from “genocide,” “denazifying” and demilitarizing Ukraine, and obliging Ukraine to be permanently neutral between Russia and NATO—almost exactly restating the goals Russian President Vladimir Putin announced in his February 24 speech justifying the war.

https://ria.ru/20220705/spetsoperatsiya-1800246996.html

_.... which is unacceptable to Ukrainians_


----------



## 3 hound (6 July 2022)

Dona Ferentes said:


> the Russian military operation in Ukraine will continue until Russia achieves its goals of protecting civilians from “genocide,” “denazifying” and demilitarizing Ukraine, and obliging Ukraine to be permanently neutral between Russia and NATO—




These all sound like perfectly reasonable demands, the west should support these aims instead of arming Ukraine's Nazis and supporting Ukraine's homophobic laws that deny the human rights of gay people.


----------



## 3 hound (6 July 2022)

waterbottle said:


> Germany Considers Allowing Bailouts For Energy Firms | OilPrice.com
> 
> 
> Germany is considering amendments that would allow the government to bail out struggling energy firms
> ...




Well Germany has already had two unsuccessful attempts at total European domination dragging the entire world thru absolute hell on earth and completely decimating their own population and economy in the process. 

Past behaviour is a good predictor of future behaviour.


----------



## JohnDe (6 July 2022)

3 hound said:


> *Past behaviour is a good predictor of future behaviour.*






> *Mass killings under communist regimes*
> 
> Mass killings under communist regimes occurred during the 20th century through a variety of means, including executions, famine, and deaths through forced labour, deportation, and imprisonment. Some of these events have been classified as genocides or crimes against humanity.  The mass killings have been the subject of study by authors and academics and several have postulated potential causes of and factors associated with the occurrences of these killings.  *The most common states and events which are included are the Soviet Union* and


----------



## noirua (15 July 2022)

War in Ukraine
·
LIVE
Latest updates on the war in Ukraine



			https://twitter.com/i/events/1483255084750282753


----------



## Garpal Gumnut (15 July 2022)

Some sources are quoting the Chinese leadership as becoming tired of supporting Russia in it's incompetence in Ukraine. 

As I have said before on this thread, now would be an ideal time for China to seize those lands north of Mongolia and the Amur River up to the Kurils in Sakhalin Oblast and thus appear on the doorstep of Alaska via Siberia. 

This may be a once in a lifetime opportunity for China to quickly and with little cost extend it's borders against a crippled foe and unsettle another. 

Starting a war can have unintended consequences as Putin is now discovering.

gg


----------



## Dona Ferentes (15 July 2022)

incompetence or bloodlust?
(just doin' what Uncle Joe and the Tsars did, and Gengghis did to them in the formative years of national identity?)


----------



## noirua (20 July 2022)

July 19 2022 - Vladimir Putin visited Iran for his second foreign trip since the war broke out in Ukraine. The Russian president is expected to discuss the Syrian war, western sanctions and arms trade with the leaders of Iran and Turkey. Palki Sharma decodes Putin's objectives in West Asia.


----------



## Craton (20 July 2022)

noirua said:


> July 19 2022 - Vladimir Putin visited Iran for his second foreign trip since the war broke out in Ukraine. The Russian president is expected to discuss the Syrian war, western sanctions and arms trade with the leaders of Iran and Turkey. Palki Sharma decodes Putin's objectives in West Asia.




Can't see the vid:


> Video unavailable
> The uploader has not made this video available in your country




Guess you're on a VPN or using Tor?


----------



## noirua (20 July 2022)

Craton said:


> Can't see the vid:
> 
> 
> Guess you're on a VPN or using Tor?



I'm just using the Opera Browser free VPN set on 'the Americas'. This VPN is a bit slow and I have to use it to sign in to ASF from the UK. After signing in I switch the VPN off as I'm using low battery power on a lap top in a conservation area at the moment.
The video works using browser Maxthon6 without VPN.


----------



## 3 hound (20 July 2022)

noirua said:


> free VPN




This is almost never a good idea kids.


----------



## againsthegrain (20 July 2022)

3 hound said:


> This is almost never a good idea kids.



you get what you pay for


----------



## 3 hound (20 July 2022)

againsthegrain said:


> you get what you pay for



I bet all the personal data collected by the free VPN is not given away for free.


----------



## noirua (21 July 2022)

3 hound said:


> I bet all the personal data collected by the free VPN is not given away for free.



OK I take your point on safety.  There are reports of IP addresses being leaked and servers for 'The Americas' sometimes indicating Vietnam. 
However, it can be used for access only and the VPN turned off immediately afterwards. The Vietnam server occasionally comes up but this is a redirection server.

These are some alternatives I have used occasionally that are all free and indicate as safe. Each has its plus points on speed, simplicity etc., 








						The Best Free VPN Apps of 2022 | Fast, Safe & 100% Free
					

Trustworthy free VPNs are hard to find. We have rigorously tested hundreds of free VPNs to recommend the best ones available.




					www.top10vpn.com


----------



## Craton (22 July 2022)

noirua said:


> I'm just using the Opera Browser free VPN set on 'the Americas'. This VPN is a bit slow and I have to use it to sign in to ASF from the UK. After signing in I switch the VPN off as I'm using low battery power on a lap top in a conservation area at the moment.
> The video works using browser Maxthon6 without VPN.



All Good. I opened the link in Tor and could view it without issue.


----------



## Dona Ferentes (27 July 2022)

How a former Uber exec is helping Ukraine push back against Russia
_At the start of the war, the world waited for Russia to shut Ukraine’s internet down. But Silicon Valley-trained engineers and global digital networks are giving the smaller country an edge._
*Gillian Tett*
Jul 27, 2022

Andrey Liscovich was at home in downtown San Francisco when he saw a tweet from the American politician Marco Rubio: “The #Russian invasion of #Ukraine is now underway.”
He felt sick. The 37-year-old Ukrainian had spent most of the previous decade working far from his native country, including as chief executive officer of Uber Works, a subsidiary of the ride-booking group, before creating his own tech start-up. But Liscovich was born in Zaporizhzhia, on the border of Southeast Donbas region now suffering intense Russian bombardments,

“When I saw the news, and that [president Volodymyr] Zelensky was staying, I knew I had to go back to fight,” he recalls. So, he boarded a plane to Poland and made his way across Ukraine to Zaporizhzhia, planning to enlist. He wrote his will on the flight.
But when he arrived at the Zaporizhzhia conscription station, the recruiters told him that they did not want him to fire bullets but asked him instead to use the tech skills he had developed at Uber to support military logistics. Liscovich obeyed: he tapped into his global networks to source military uniforms and hardware, raise donations and assemble engineers to solve problems such as how to detect Russian drones.

“Western partners trusted me to distribute stuff, give them actionable feedback and then adapt the product to Ukrainian conditions,” he explains during a trip back to San Francisco to harness help from local software engineers. He still spends part of his time in the fragments of the Donbas region that remain under Ukrainian control so that he can observe his “customers” – Ukrainian soldiers – in action, in order to develop products they can use.
“I like to say this is the world’s first open-source war,” says Oleg Rogynsky, 35, another Ukrainian who runs a Silicon Valley start-up. He is also helping the Ukrainian cause and exchanging ideas with other computing engineers on social media sites, message groups such as Signal, and GitHub, the platform where coders exchange ideas.

This might seem a mere footnote in the relentless battle, as the Russians try to crush Ukrainian resistance. In the first two months of the war, Ukraine’s nimbler forces often outwitted and outfought the Russians. But more recently the Russian army has been making grinding progress via relentless artillery barrage and aerial bombardment, taking more and more territory in the Donbas. When Zelensky pleads for western aid, he asks for items such as long-range missile launchers, which the Ukrainian army desperately needs to repel Russia’s advance.
But the digital networks being organised by Liscovich and others are vitally important. They help to explain why Ukraine has been able to resist the Russian invasion for so long; they also show how this conflict could reshape other states’ approach to war.
The issue at stake is how combatants organise themselves. The Russian military still appears to operate in a hierarchical manner – even though it has potent cyber-hacking and misinformation capabilities. The Ukrainian army, by contrast, gives decentralised teams considerable autonomy to make decisions and innovate, and soldiers communicate directly with their peers in different units.

So, one way to frame the war between Russia and Ukraine is as a contest between lateral networks and vertical hierarchies. Just as tiny Silicon Valley start-ups can disrupt legacy companies by using agility, speed and bottom-up innovation, the Ukrainian army is trying to compensate for its inferior size with an entrepreneurial spirit and engineers steeped in coding, hacking and video games.
“What the Ukrainians have done with networks is striking, but that approach is completely antithetical to how someone like Putin operates,” Garry Kasparov, the former chess champion and Russian dissident, tells me. Or as former Google CEO Eric Schmidt observes: “Russia is playing a hierarchical war – top-down generals are planning the usual stuff. But Ukraine is playing a networked war.
“The real strategic question is: what is the limit of a networked war? We are going to find out.”

To understand why lateral networks matter so deeply to the war in Ukraine, some history is needed. In the days of the USSR, Ukraine’s economy was centred on agriculture and heavy industry. However, the country always had plenty of engineering talent, since it had a big military-industrial complex. When the Soviet Union broke up in the early 1990s, many of these engineers embraced the fast-emerging internet. “Russia has always had a large internal market, so Russian engineers were usually working for Russian companies,” says Rogynsky. “But Ukraine’s market was very small, so Ukrainian engineers were always working for western companies, in English.”
Ukrainian universities rushed to serve this demand, creating a homegrown ecosystem of IT talent. And as the 21st century wore on, a new generation of techies emerged, often well travelled, exposed to western values and wealthy by Ukrainian standards. “The engineers usually stayed in Ukraine instead of leaving because the tax position was preferable – a $US50,000 ($71,752) salary in Ukraine was like $US300,000 ($430,512) in San Francisco,” says Rogynsky. 
Fending off cyber hacks​Then the government got involved. In the immediate years after independence, Kyiv was wary of the tech kids. But when Zelenskyy swept to power in 2019, he brought some of them into government. One was Mykhailo Fedorov, an entrepreneur who was put in charge of the digital ministry, at the age of 28. He previously ran a digital communications company that helped Zelensky’s campaign. He is passionate about product development and obsessed with what Silicon Valley calls “UX” – user experience research.
Fedorov recruited two dozen other homegrown tech experts and set about trying to digitise the Ukrainian government. They did this partly to make public services cheaper and more efficient. Fedorov tried, say, to conduct a census by counting SIM cards instead of doing door-to-door surveys, and unveiled a plan to hand out free mobile phones to all the country’s pensioners to enable them to use telemedicine. But the other reason he raced to embrace digitisation was to beat corruption, which has plagued post-Soviet Ukraine. “Corruption occurs when there are silos,” he says, speaking by phone from a government office in Kyiv. “We want to break them down.”

The most tangible result of this policy is a smartphone app called Diia — meaning “state and me” in Ukrainian — which was launched in February 2020. This app can perform payment services, store driving licences and passports and distribute welfare. Since the war began, Fedorov’s team have added a suite of new features that enable citizens to report property damaged by bombing and apply for compensation, keep crucial documents close to hand in refugee camps and log the movements of Russian troops. The latter feature worries some western observers since it blurs the line between civilians and combatants, but it has been widely used. And, more generally, some 18 million people — about 40 per cent of the population — are using the app, according to Fedorov.
When the Russians invaded, they tried to disable the digital links that Fedorov had built. Many in Ukraine feared they would succeed. “I hardly slept [before the invasion] because we had lots of cyberattacks on Diia and other portals,” Fedorov recalls. “The Russians knew how important the internet was for us and wanted to bring it down.”
The Russians launched cyberattacks and physical missiles at data servers and cell towers. The Ukrainians frantically fended off the cyber hacks, drawing on the experience they had gained from earlier attacks and aid from western allies. They were helped by the fact that Diia is a smartphone app, distributed across millions of phones, making it harder to break than a centralised database. “Everyone was impressed by how well the Ukrainians did [in defending themselves],” says Chris Krebs, former White House cybersecurity head.

To make the system more resilient, Fedorov’s team also raced — under fire — to remove data servers from Kyiv, and uploaded as much data as they could into the cloud to create back-ups. Then they looked for ways to keep the internet safe from missile strikes, which led them to Elon Musk.
Ukrainian engineers knew that Musk had developed so-called Starlink devices, mobile internet terminals that connect to a satellite. Starlinks only have a range of 90 metres from the satellite dish via cable or Wi-Fi. But the beauty of them is that they create a fragmented communications network: when they are spread across a region, they cannot be knocked out or jammed as easily as a single node, such as a cell tower.
The Ukrainians knew Musk wanted to display the powers of Starlink. So Fedorov sent a public tweet to him, appealing for help, and Ukrainian entrepreneurs privately used their contacts in venture capital to reinforce the plea. It worked: within hours, Musk dispatched several hundred Starlink terminals to Poland, and Ukraine’s digital ministry then ferried them into hospitals, government buildings, railways terminals and critical infrastructure.
Two old computers and a half-dead printer​Roman Perimov was one Ukrainian engineer in this chain. Having studied nuclear engineering, he has worked over the past two decades as an IT project manager for large western enterprises. In early 2022, just before the war started, he was about to move to Philadelphia with his family to run a global program for a big international company. “I can’t name them,” he says, speaking to me by video during an overnight military shift. Western companies, he notes, are more media-shy than the Ukrainian army.
When Russia invaded in February, Perimov moved his family to Poland before he returned to Ukraine to enlist. He was dispatched to a motorised brigade, with orders to create a tech hub with a 30-strong team. “When I came to the unit, there was almost nothing to do with IT – just two old computers and a half-dead printer,” as well as unreliable internet. But Perimov’s team quickly assembled donations of computing hardware from engineering friends, and his wife drove across the Polish-Ukrainian border with some of the all-important Starlink terminals in her car.

Once online, Perimov’s military team started problem-solving, using the same type of techniques that Silicon Valley engineers might use in a hackathon: rapid-fire experiments, with a mix of online collaboration and competition, conducted on GitHub and Signal. “We pretty much work by ourselves, decide what to do and come up with solutions,” says Perimov.
One of the first problems the engineers “hacked” was how to protect the Starlink terminals from Russian attacks: they tested ways of hiding the terminals under camouflage blankets or piles of rubbish. They discussed how to ensure that the routers would not be detected by Russian planes or radar. Engineers brainstormed ways of creating protective cases for the terminals on a Facebook chatroom, and Rogynsky and Liscovich did procurement tests with West Coast manufacturers.
The engineers also hacked different communications systems, tested ways of flying drones and posted artillery targets for each other on shared coding platforms and specially designed apps. “It’s networked,” observes Schmidt. “[One unit] posts the open-source co-ordinates of a tank, say, and then another group unknown to the first goes [to the co-ordinates] and deals with the tank.”
Now Perimov is engaged on a new project: trying to incapacitate a small Russian drone called Orlan, which cannot easily be attacked with conventional arms. “The problem with Orlan drones is that they can’t usually be hit by standard rifles [if they fly higher than 500 metres]. Neither can they 100 per cent be hit by Stinger-like missiles because they are so small and do not radiate enough heat to be detected by infrared,” he explains. “If you google for solutions, you won’t find any – I have looked and looked. So, we are experimenting.” Rogynsky and others have now connected Perimov with a San Francisco company called Dedrone which, he tells me, is donating a system for testing.
‘I have a job to do’​However, this iterative innovation process goes well beyond drones. As soon as western governments offer military hardware, the network of Ukrainian engineers hack it to make it easy for them to operate. “What is critically needed now is modern software-enabled weapons like Himars [long-range missiles],” Perimov explains. “If we get it, we have more than enough specialists who can tackle and adopt it fast.”
As evidence of this, he points out a post that recently appeared on the LinkedIn platform, advertising an engineer job for “a result-orientated and self-directed person” who wants to work with Himars. It claims to pay a salary of $US7600 and $US10,000 a month. “Maybe it is a joke,” chuckles Perimov. “But maybe not – we [engineers] are all used to using LinkedIn anyway.”
In late June, when Liscovich was in San Francisco, I asked him how he was feeling about the war, and the destruction unfolding around his childhood home.
“Working in Silicon Valley taught me that when you are engaged in a start-up you cannot let yourself have emotional swings or it hurts your business. So, I am doing the same now. I have a job to do.”
However, Liscovich knows the battle is getting tougher. He has created a so-called 501(c)(3) – an American tax-deductible venture – called Ukraine Defence Fund for donations. Rogynsky has done the same to raise money to send more Starlinks. “But donations are slowing down,” says Liscovich. And although the US government is sending badly needed shipments of military goods, the systems for dispersing this tend to be achingly slow. What makes matters worse is that Ukraine’s history of corruption means its government typically insists on extensive paperwork before releasing any goods. There are reports of Starlinks piling up in warehouses as a result.

The other big problems are physical fatigue, and scale. After months of gruelling battles, the Russians have made advances in the east of the country, and thus far it is not clear how much the Ukrainians can hold them back. As military experts point out, while networks are effective for resistance campaigns, it is less clear whether they can be used for attack. “I am not complacent about what is going on – I do not underestimate the Russians,” says Liscovich, who spent years studying in Russia; some of his former friends there “are probably working on the other side”.

However, what drives people such as Liscovich, Rogynsky, Perimov and countless others is a passionate belief that entrepreneurial digital innovation is the key to winning both the war and peace. “I am confident we will win the war. Israel is the model,” says Perimov.
Liscovich is now back in his hometown of Zaporizhzhia, looking for permanent offices for the Ukraine Defence Fund. The town is “functioning normally on the surface”, he says, but business activity is “severely depressed” – not least because the city is being hit by missiles. “You can get a room in a tower facing the central square of the city for just $US150 a month.” Like any entrepreneur, he is digging in for the long term. “This is the biggest start-up experiment of my life, of all our lives.”

_— Financial Times_


----------



## noirua (2 August 2022)

New Husband of Putin's Ex-Wife Buys Posh Villa in South of France
					

When Lyudmila Putin, 59, divorced Russian President Vladimir Putin and married the director of a Russian non-profit organization, she might have expected that her days of living in opulent luxury were over. The villa purchased by Artur Ocheretny. (Wikipedia.org. User: TONIODELBARRIO6464)




					www.occrp.org


----------



## gartley (2 August 2022)

Garpal Gumnut said:


> Some sources are quoting the Chinese leadership as becoming tired of supporting Russia in it's incompetence in Ukraine.
> 
> As I have said before on this thread, now would be an ideal time for China to seize those lands north of Mongolia and the Amur River up to the Kurils in Sakhalin Oblast and thus appear on the doorstep of Alaska via Siberia.
> 
> ...



They tried in 1969 along the border near Khabarovsk and failed to achieve anything. My wife's parents lived near there...
China has enough of its own developing civil unrest problems to deal with now. Failing real estate bubble and now bank concerns.


----------



## noirua (3 August 2022)

Among the main reasons for the Hellfire's repeated use is its precision.
When a missile is launched from a drone, a weapons operator - sometimes sitting in an air-conditioned control room as far away as the continental US - sees a live video stream of the target, which the drone's camera sensors feed back via satellite.
Using a set of "targeting brackets" on the screen, the camera operator is then able to "lock up" the target and point a laser at it. Once the missile is fired, it follows the path of that laser until striking the target.


----------



## noirua (10 August 2022)

https://mobile.twitter.com/i/events/1557062377589428225


----------



## noirua (10 August 2022)

Russian advance in eastern Ukraine is slowing to a crawl, says MoD
					

Some Russian units in eastern Ukraine have advanced only two miles or less during the last 30 days as they struggle to recruit enough troops to push on, according to British intelligence.In the most successful assault, towards the city of Bakhmut in the Donetsk region, they managed to progress 6 mil




					www.thetimes.co.uk
				





			https://mobile.twitter.com/i/events/1556971420084731904


----------



## noirua (19 August 2022)

Explosions rock ammunition depot in Crimea in suspected Ukrainian attack
					

Russia blamed the blasts in the village of Mayskoye on an "act of sabotage," without naming the perpetrators.




					www.cbsnews.com
				



Explosions and fires ripped through an ammunition depot in Russia-annexed Crimea on Tuesday in the second suspected Ukrainian attack on the peninsula in just over a week, forcing the evacuation of more than 3,000 people.


----------



## Dona Ferentes (19 August 2022)

noirua said:


> Explosions and fires ripped through an ammunition depot in Russia-annexed Crimea on Tuesday in the second suspected Ukrainian attack on the peninsula in just over a week, forcing the evacuation of more than 3,000 people.



I find the site https://liveuamap.com/ to be more comprehensive, based on Telegram + Twitter to a large extent, as well as other sources. This of course has the bias of the posters, but is more immediate
This morning, for example, artillery hits continue along the front line (from Russian forces into Ukrainian defences and cities/ towns). Missiles are being fired into Ukrainian territory. Air raid sirens are active in most oblasts.  

From what is probably HIMARS activity, several ammunition dumps have been hit deep in Russian occupied Ukraine (the Donbas/ Crimea), plus airbases. As well, there are hits on Russian territory (Usually sabotage or drones). 

Most alarming is the activity around the Zaporizhzhia Nuclear Power plant ZNPP, on the occupied side of the Dniepr,


----------



## Dona Ferentes (22 August 2022)

Talking with a chap who has recently returned from a Rhine River cruise (very low on _my _bucket list)

- _the tourist boats at about 60% capacity, lots of staff (every language you'd want)
- river levels dropping , then and now
- barge traffic going upstream was non-stop.... coal, gas and oil. All the talk was of getting stockpiles in for winter_

And now the river is blocked in part, which doesn't auger well for the coming months.


----------



## noirua (22 August 2022)




----------



## noirua (8 September 2022)

Ukrainian forces retake Russian-held territory near Kharkiv
					

Meanwhile, tensions continued to simmer around Europe's largest nuclear power plant where Ukraine and Russia have accused each other of threatening a nuclear disaster by shelling near the facility.




					www.newindianexpress.com


----------



## noirua (8 September 2022)

US approves up to USD 675 million in further military aid to Ukraine
					

US Defence Secretary Lloyd Austin said that the package includes howitzers, artillery munitions, Humvees, armored ambulances, anti-tank systems and more.




					www.newindianexpress.com


----------



## bluekelah (9 September 2022)

noirua said:


> US approves up to USD 675 million in further military aid to Ukraine
> 
> 
> US Defence Secretary Lloyd Austin said that the package includes howitzers, artillery munitions, Humvees, armored ambulances, anti-tank systems and more.
> ...



Russia wont stop till they get those Aegis Nuke Sites removed from Romania and Poland.
USA wont stop till they go bankrupt. 
#buy gold.


----------



## Dona Ferentes (9 September 2022)

Ukrainian offensives on several fronts. Pushing back Russian forces in Kharkiv and Kherson


----------



## noirua (11 September 2022)

The problem reported now is President Putin will declare war putting forward that they are now fighting western nations in Ukraine.  So he can then call up 100s of thousands more troops and move wartime troops, weapons, and tanks into Ukraine. A more ugly phase of the war looks set to begin as Putin can not lose and the west cannot allow him to win.  China wants to blockade Taiwan so no one will stand down.


----------



## Dona Ferentes (11 September 2022)

noirua said:


> The problem reported now is President Putin *will *declare war putting forward that they are now fighting western nations in Ukraine.



Will? 
or Russians show some spine and remove him? Or the West show some spine and indict him for war crimes?


noirua said:


> So he can then call up 100s of thousands more troops and move wartime troops, weapons, and tanks into Ukraine.



I think he has already done this.


noirua said:


> A more ugly phase of the war looks set to begin as Putin can not lose and the west cannot allow him to win.



possibly


----------



## Garpal Gumnut (11 September 2022)

noirua said:


> The problem reported now is President Putin will declare war putting forward that they are now fighting western nations in Ukraine.  So he can then call up 100s of thousands more troops and move wartime troops, weapons, and tanks into Ukraine. A more ugly phase of the war looks set to begin as Putin can not lose and the west cannot allow him to win.  China wants to blockade Taiwan so no one will stand down.




To quote Winston Churchill, who for younger members was PM of the UK during WW II , 



> Russia is a riddle wrapped in a mystery inside an enigma.




It is difficult to second guess Russia's intentions. It is am empire with something like 11 time zones. It is democratic and constitutional in name only. It has always had Czars who ruled with Cossacks to keep order, Aristocrats were kept close and a mercantile class was available  to make money. Beneath at the bottom are a large mob of millions, uneducated, slavish, alcoholic peasants. It has always been thus. 

The modern equivalent is Putin ( Czar ), FSB and Generals ( Cossacks ) Puppet Politicians, Oligarchs and Propagandists ( mercantile class ) and citizens/babushkas ( a large mob of uneducated, slavish, alcoholic peasants).

Power rarely moves lower than FSB and Generals, even in changes of ideology such as in 1917. 

So imo trying to predict what will happen in Russia is more difficult than trying to predict the price of gold.

gg


----------



## StockyGuy (11 September 2022)

Garpal Gumnut said:


> To quote Winston Churchill, who for younger members was PM of the UK during WW II ,




Hmmm maybe he didn't want to see what his heart probably knew: an alliance was needed to get a job done, but a Russia under Stalin and his ilk was always going to end up an enemy of the West.  Like against Japan, a small tactical nuke or two on the USSR, before they could respond in kind, MIGHT have been for the greater good.  Ah, the benefit of hindsight!

Of course it was never completely that easy, as although the USSR's first successful nuke test was 29 August 1949 they were stealing info from the US program constantly, and could have maybe cobbled together something functional in short order if push came to shove.


----------



## Garpal Gumnut (11 September 2022)

For those who are not better than I at using the internets and televisions, just a heads up for accessing news on the Russian Invasion of Ukraine. 

It is just coming up to 37 minutes after sunrise in Kyiv. Remembering that further East in Ukraine it has been daylight for over an hour

The first bulletins via twitter.com usually get posted in about 90 minutes, although Kyiv is still in information blackout for strategic, tactical and operational reasons. 

rt.com which is a Russian propaganda outfit can be accessed if you turn your vpnskies to Israel as they still allow rt to broadcast there. Quite hilarious misinformation. My grandchildren tell me Bluey is more fun. 

Telegram has many useful posters but again with the ongoing information blackout it is limited on the
Ukraine side, although it is interesting from the Russian side as more panic settles in. Find them yeselves as my Cyrillic is ruskty. 

Slava Ukraine.

gg


----------



## Garpal Gumnut (11 September 2022)

gg


----------



## Dona Ferentes (11 September 2022)

Izium has been de-occupied. If we are lucky, RUF has fled Lymnan. Pushilin has crossed the border to Rus. The Vovchansk administration in NE Kharkhiv has decamped to Belgorod. Large numbers of pro-Russians are thinking collaboration wasn't such a good idea and moving out of Ukraine lands.

It's a dynamic situation. The Kherson front is tricky; ultimately the Russians still want the warm water Black Sea ports and the krasnozem soils of the steppes. And a hard land to make frontal attacks, unless the adversaries panic and flee. Plus the nuclear plant ! A ticking time bomb. I believe it's called blackmail.


----------



## noirua (11 September 2022)

Bank of Russia agrees to legalize crypto for cross-border payments: Report
					

The Russian central bank and finance ministry have reportedly reached an agreement to legalize crypto for cross-border payments in the near future.




					cointelegraph.com
				



The idea of crypto payments for national trades in Russia surfaced in late 2021. Then, Russian President Vladimir Putin said it was “still premature” to use crypto for trades of energy resources like oil and gas.

The situation has apparently changed amid Western economic sanctions following Russia’s invasion of Ukraine. In May, the Minister of Industry and Trade declared that Russia would legalize crypto payments “sooner or later.” Bank of Russia governor Elvira Nabiullina also later suggested that crypto can be used for cross-border payments, but only if crypto doesn’t get into Russia’s domestic financial system.


----------



## Garpal Gumnut (12 September 2022)

An Australian Bushmaster on the frontline at the Oskil River assisting in the liberation of the cousins in Ukraine.



gg


----------



## noirua (17 September 2022)




----------



## Garpal Gumnut (17 September 2022)

The #Fellas are beginning a counteroffensive on Donetsk.

gg


----------



## Dona Ferentes (17 September 2022)

Garpal Gumnut said:


> The #Fellas are beginning a counteroffensive on Donetsk.
> 
> gg



It's a feint... Kherson next stop?

Either way momentum is on their side.


----------



## Garpal Gumnut (20 September 2022)

Quite a good link for UTD maps of the Ukranian conquest of an empire.









						The War in Ukraine
					

Following the War in Ukraine



					www.scribblemaps.com
				




gg


----------



## noirua (24 September 2022)

Russia has nearly a 10:1 advantage over the United States and NATO in non-strategic (i.e., low-yield and short-range) nuclear weapons (NSNWs).


			https://www.heritage.org/global-politics/commentary/russias-small-nukes-are-big-problem-european-security


----------



## gartley (27 September 2022)

Looks like the next week will be quite crucial


----------



## sptrawler (27 September 2022)

As I said the world has changed, Putin starting conscription could be the beginning of the end for him, the young will revolt IMO.








						‘No one will go to fight’: Russian military recruiter shot amid fear of Ukraine call-up
					

The shooting comes after scattered arson attacks on enlistment offices and protests in Russian cities against the military call-up that have resulted in at least 2000 arrests.




					www.smh.com.au
				



*Kyiv:* A young man shot a Russian military officer at close range at an enlistment office on Monday, an unusually bold attack reflecting resistance to Russian President Vladimir Putin’s efforts to mobilise hundreds of thousands of more men to wage war on Ukraine.

The shooting comes after scattered arson attacks on enlistment offices and protests in Russian cities against the military call-up that have resulted in at least 2000 arrests. Russia is seeking to bolster its military as its Ukraine offensive has bogged down.
Protests also flared up in Dagestan, one of Russia’s poorer regions in the North Caucasus. Local media reported that “several hundred” demonstrators took to the streets Tuesday in its capital, Makhachkala. Videos circulated online showing dozens of protesters tussling with the police sent to disperse them.
Demonstrations also continued in another of Russia’s North Caucasus republics, Kabardino-Balkaria, where videos on social media showed a local official attempting to address a crowd of women. Analysts say Russia’s regions with significant minority populations — such as Dagestan and Kabardino-Balkaria — are likely to bear the brunt of the country’s rush to mobilise.

Fears are running high that Moscow might close the borders to men of fighting age after the referendums in Ukraine end, prompting long lines of cars at Russia’s frontiers. Telegram chats dedicated to some of these crossings swelled with thousands of new users.

The lines apparently persisted Monday. The online service Yandex Maps showed a 18-kilometre traffic jam on a road in Russia’s region of North Ossetia that leads up to the border with Georgia, and the regional branch of the Federal Security Service, or FSB, deployed an armoured vehicle to the crossing.


----------



## Dona Ferentes (27 September 2022)

looks orderly to me


----------



## Belli (27 September 2022)

Are the Russian armed forces seriously issuing this to their troops?  What next?  Mussel loaded muskets?


----------



## Dona Ferentes (2 October 2022)

Dona Ferentes said:


> Izium has been de-occupied. If we are lucky, RUF has fled Lymnan.



and now Lyman .... reportedly several thousand RU foreces neutralised / surrendered


Dona Ferentes said:


> It's a dynamic situation. The Kherson front is tricky; ultimately the Russians still want the warm water Black Sea ports and the krasnozem soils of the steppes. And a hard land to make frontal attacks, unless the adversaries panic and flee. Plus the nuclear plant ! A ticking time bomb. I believe it's called blackmail.



Still on "operational blackout" of comms from Ukrainian side, but RU doing a better job of holding some of the N bank of the Dnieper. Progress is 'grinding'.

the _siloviki _must be getting nervous.


----------



## Belli (4 October 2022)

As smack downs go this is a pretty good one.


----------



## Dona Ferentes (5 October 2022)

Garpal Gumnut said:


> The #Fellas are beginning a counteroffensive on Donetsk.
> 
> gg





Dona Ferentes said:


> It's a feint... Kherson next stop?
> 
> Either way momentum is on their side.



We were both right. Still pushing, now into Luhansk... And amazing retaking of territory overnight in Kherson.


----------



## noirua (8 October 2022)

Below is the electoral map of 2012. Blue is the pro-Russia party.
Taken from a Twitter re-tweet by Andrew Bell of a tweet by Elon Musk.


----------



## Dona Ferentes (8 October 2022)

noirua said:


> View attachment 147833
> 
> Below is the electoral map of 2012. Blue is the pro-Russia party.
> Taken from a Twitter re-tweet by Andrew Bell of a tweet by Elon Musk.



And so?

"I really like Ukraine but I don't want to see WWIII." The delusional Musk 
May as well say_"I really like Czechoslovakia but I'm not prepared to let WWII happen". 
Doesn't work that way._


----------



## noirua (8 October 2022)

Dona Ferentes said:


> And so?
> 
> "I really like Ukraine but I don't want to see WWIII." The delusional Musk
> May as well say_"I really like Czechoslovakia but I'm not prepared to let WWII happen".
> Doesn't work that way._



Maybe Elon Musk as always is far ahead of the pack in forward-thinking once more. Sometimes foreseeing a disaster that hasn't happened in one's mind's eye points to a way to avoid it.


----------



## againsthegrain (8 October 2022)

noirua said:


> Maybe Elon Musk as always is far ahead of the pack in forward-thinking once more. Sometimes foreseeing a disaster that hasn't happened in one's mind's eye points to a way to avoid it.



didn't Russians threaten to shoot down his satellites?  his crapping his pants now and licking boots it seems


----------



## noirua (8 October 2022)

againsthegrain said:


> didn't Russians threaten to shoot down his satellites?  his crapping his pants now and licking boots it seems



Elon Musk has his problems over the Twitter purchase that looks overpriced and Tesla shares are now down to $224 against its high point last October of $407 - allowing for the 3 for 1 split. As to crapping himself he has his solid gold toilet alongside his good lady's diamond studied bidet. If only I could have his concerns!
We may well have drifted off-topic me thinks.


----------



## noirua (9 October 2022)

Hungary and Turkey still blocking Sweden and Finland from NATO
					

NATO Secretary General Jens Stoltenberg has been in Ankara for talks, with Sweden's new Prime Minister Ulf Kristersson due next week.




					www.euronews.com
				



FILE: Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan, left, and Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orban sign a document during their meeting in Budapest, Hungary, Thursday, Nov. 7, 2019 
https://www.euronews.com/2022/10/06...039fe1508d034ce0a52be#vuukle-comments-2084378

In the corridors of power in Stockholm and Helsinki, the champagne is on ice.
After just three months, 28 out of 30 NATO states have ratified the treaty changes in their national parliaments that would approve membership for Finland and Sweden; while 24 nations have already deposited the new paperwork in Washington.


----------



## divs4ever (9 October 2022)

"Declaration Of War Without Rules": Russian Officials Fume Over Crimea Bridge Blast As Ukraine Celebrates​





						"Declaration Of War Without Rules": Russian Officials Fume Over Crimea Bridge Blast As Ukraine Celebrates | ZeroHedge
					

ZeroHedge - On a long enough timeline, the survival rate for everyone drops to zero




					www.zerohedge.com
				




 i wonder if the RUSSIANS will now start a wave of export bans 

 the West needed a war to distract from the economic collapse ... enjoy ...


----------



## JohnDe (9 October 2022)

Russia is repeating their own history, the only difference is that they now have nuclear weapons.



> *Ukraine has finally exposed the fatal flaws in Putin’s army*
> 
> Welcome to the world of the Incredibly Shrinking Russian Soldier. I’m old enough to remember when Ivan threatened to stride with seven-league boots across the north German plains. Those were the days when Nato fretted about the chances of Soviet tanks staging a 48-hour sprint over the Iron Curtain, encircling Hamburg and holding it hostage. Back in 1981 the Pentagon issued a glossy pamphlet, Soviet Military Power, which depicted Moscow’s enormous missiles in lurid detail. It was enough to keep the kids awake at night - and persuade twitchy cold warriors to feed defence budgets in East and West.
> 
> ...


----------



## divs4ever (9 October 2022)

General Winter  isn't long away 

 not just nuclear , chemical and biological weapons 

 when will Russia start using it's financial ones , and let Western greed  defeat itself 

 i notice the US ( and others ) forgot the Saudis are proud people 

 going to be interesting times


----------



## Dona Ferentes (9 October 2022)

divs4ever said:


> General Winter  isn't long away
> not just nuclear , chemical and biological weapons
> when will Russia start using it's financial ones , and let Western greed  defeat itself
> i notice the US ( and others ) forgot the Saudis are proud people...
> going to be interesting times



You make about as much sense as Sergei Lavrov.


----------



## divs4ever (9 October 2022)

am more a student of Sun Tzu  ,  and am watching  how China and Russia ( and others ) adapt to the rising tensions 

 now long term ( maybe after my life-time )  i see the long-term winner as India whether that is a stand-alone nation ( or in a sub-continent bloc ) or a member of BRICS  remains to be seen 

 Russia might easily deploy  the financial nuclear weapon  and demand exports to 'unfriendly nations' be paid in gold ( delivered to the Russian vaults )  OR just stop all exports to 'unfriendly nations'  and let rising prices ( and existing debt ) do the rest 

 now China  has ( imo ) given the 'export pedal ' a couple of playful blips  recently to see what happens .


----------



## noirua (16 October 2022)

‘My son has died’: Russia mourns loss of first drafted soldiers in Ukraine
					

As newly mobilised men return from the front in coffins, critics complain of aggressive recruiting, low morale and poor training• Russia-Ukraine war latest – live blog




					www.theguardian.com
				





	

		
			
		

		
	
Russian conscripts undergo training in the Rostov-on-Don region of southern Russia, 4 October 2022. Photograph: Arkady Budnitsky/EPA


----------



## noirua (16 October 2022)

Eleven Russian soldiers killed in mass shooting by fellow volunteers
					

Defence minister says two assailants shot dead after attack at training ground in region bordering Ukraine




					www.theguardian.com


----------



## noirua (17 October 2022)

Vladimir Putin's head of Ukraine mobilisation dies in possible suicide: Report
					

Russia-Ukraine War: Lt. Col. Roman Malyk (49), died at his residence in a village in the Primorsky region of Russia, reports said.




					www.hindustantimes.com


----------



## Dona Ferentes (17 October 2022)

noirua said:


> Vladimir Putin's head of Ukraine mobilisation dies in possible suicide: Report
> 
> 
> Russia-Ukraine War: Lt. Col. Roman Malyk (49), died at his residence in a village in the Primorsky region of Russia, reports said.
> ...



must have been a one-storey dacha


----------



## rcw1 (17 October 2022)

OH MY GOD. Now it all makes sense!! (Nord Stream Pipeline)​


Kind regards
rcw1


----------



## Knobby22 (18 October 2022)

rcw1 said:


> OH MY GOD. Now it all makes sense!! (Nord Stream Pipeline)​
> 
> 
> Kind regards
> rcw1




I agree it obviously wasn't Putin.

But there are quite a few countries that win on this not excluding the USA. Other countries supplying gas including Norway with the new pipeline.

Also countries that need Europe to keep fighting including Poland, the Baltic states etc. Ukraine itself is a big winner.

Then there are non state actors, big business, anti Russian/Putin groups and Ukrain sympathisers. 

It's not that hard to blow up.


----------



## Dona Ferentes (19 October 2022)

Calamity Averted !  Natural Gas price out of Amsterdam.


----------



## basilio (21 October 2022)

What it is to be soldier in Russia's Army.  But as long as you can destroy Ukraine's power and water supplies with cheap drones they will "win" the war..

The army has nothing’: new Russian conscripts bemoan lack of supplies ​Relatives purchase armour and clothing for soldiers on frontline due to theft, corruption and poor logistics

Russia-Ukraine war – latest news updates



New conscripts to the Russian army have arrived on the frontline in Ukraine to be issued outdated and inadequate equipment. Photograph: Anadolu Agency/Getty Images

Pjotr Sauer
Fri 21 Oct 2022 06.01 AEDTLast modified on Fri 21 Oct 2022 09.55 AEDT


When her recently mobilised brother Vladimir rang from the frontline last week, Olesya Shishkanova recorded the phone call – and with it, a litany of complaints.

“They gave us absolutely no equipment. The army has nothing, we had to buy all our gear ourselves,” complained Vladimir, 23, who was conscripted as part of Vladimir Putin’s mobilisation earlier this month.

“I even had to paint my gun to cover the rust. It is a nightmare ... Soon they’ll make us buy our own grenades,” he added in the call that Shishkanova recorded and uploaded on her page on the Russian social media site VK.



‘It’s a 100% mobilisation’: day one of Russia’s drive to build its army

Read more
Vladimir’s story is far from unique. Across the country, newly mobilised men are buying up everything from thermal underwear to body armour as more evidence emerges that Russia’s undersupplied army has not been able to provide them with even the basics when they arrive at the front.

On Telegram, dozens of discussion channels have sprung up in which the wives and sisters of mobilised men share advice on where to best buy body armour and clothing for their relatives before they depart to fight in Putin’s war in Ukraine.

“From morning to evening, I scan the internet to find good deals for our boys,” said Anastasia, a member of the Help for Soldiers group, which is based in Russia’s Sverdlovsk region near the Ural mountains.

Anastasia said that the local recruitment office in Sverdlovsk “strongly advised” the newly mobilised soldiers to bring their own gear, despite statements from the defence ministry that all mobilised soldiers will be dressed and equipped.








						‘The army has nothing’: new Russian conscripts bemoan lack of supplies
					

Relatives purchase armour and clothing for soldiers on frontline due to theft, corruption and poor logistics




					www.theguardian.com


----------



## noirua (8 November 2022)

Latest updates on the war in Ukraine


			https://mobile.twitter.com/i/events/1483255084750282753


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## rcw1 (30 November 2022)

Good morning
Has been reported this morning (30/11/2022):

Estonia, yesterday (29/11/22) began putting into circulation two million two-euro coins with a special design dedicated to Ukraine and will be selling special editions to raise money for the country.

“The two-euro coin dedicated to Ukraine will from today start to reach people throughout Estonia and elsewhere in Europe through shops,” Estonia central bank governor Madis Muller said in a statement.

The coin was designed by Daria Titova, a Ukrainian refugee studying art in Estonia, and depicts a woman holding a bird next to an ear of wheat and the popular Ukrainian slogan “Glory to Ukraine”.   The central bank had already released special coin cards with the design in July but this is the first time the coin is being minted for general use.

Kind regards
rcw1


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## noirua (3 December 2022)




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## noirua (3 December 2022)

Translation of previous post:
The total combat losses of the enemy from 24.02 to 29.11 were approximately: Personnel Warehouse / personnel ві close / about 88380 (+480) persons were liquidated / persons were liquidated.

Tanks / tanks 29 2911 (+3) od.

Combat Armoured Machines / APV ‒ 5866 (+5) od.

Artillery systems - 1901 (+2) od.

RSZV / MLRS - 395 (+0) from, Anti-aircraft warfare systems / 209 (+0) from, planes / aircraft-280 (+2) od, helicopters-261 (+0) od,

UAV operational-tactical level - 1555 (+0),

Winged missiles / cruise missiles 5 531 (+0),

Ships / boats / warships / boats ps 16 (+0) od,

Automobile equipment and autocistern / vehicles and fuel tanks-4423 (+7) od,

Special equipment / special equipment спе 163 (+0).
Data are being updated
Punch the Occupier! Together we will win! Our power is in the truth! / Strike the occupier! Let's win together Our strength is in the truth!


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## Craton (3 December 2022)

A very creditable theory on the why this conflict was started by Putin. The short of it is Crimea and more specifically, the Sevastopol Naval Base.


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## noirua (10 December 2022)

The Ukrainian 6th Separate Rifle Battalion Lost Its First Battle. Then It Got Javelin Missiles.


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## Smurf1976 (11 December 2022)

Dona Ferentes said:


> Calamity Averted ! Natural Gas price out of Amsterdam.



The price has come down but it's still extraordinarily high.

It's running at ~2.5 times the price in Australia and it's about 6.6 times the US price at the moment. 

So the price has fallen but it's still ruinously high from an economic perspective.


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## DB008 (22 December 2022)

​
NEW - Russia may not be to blame after all for the attack on the Nord Stream pipelines, officials privately say.

The attack has plunged Germany into an energy crisis.

https://www.washingtonpost.com/national-security/2022/12/21/russia-nord-stream-explosions/​


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## noirua (Monday at 1:29 AM)

Live blog: Over 600 Ukrainian soldiers dead in retaliatory strike - Russia
					

Russia says it will press ahead with what it calls a "special military operation" in Ukraine after ending its 36-hour ceasefire as fighting between the two European neighbours enters its 318th day.




					www.trtworld.com


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## noirua (Monday at 5:05 AM)

No sign of casualties at site of strikes Russia says killed hundreds of Ukrainian soldiers
					

The defense ministry said the strike was revenge for a Ukrainian attack on a Russian barracks in the Donetsk region in which at least 89 servicemen were killed. There was no immediate comment from Ukraine.




					www.reuters.com


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