# AOG - AVEO Group



## GreatPig (14 July 2005)

A possible double bottom forming here?

GP


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## RichKid (14 July 2005)

*Re: FKP*



			
				GreatPig said:
			
		

> A possible double bottom forming here?
> 
> GP




Maybe a bottom or retracement pausing at support, prefer the latter view atm, need a long term graph for confirmation imo and some time to see if this second 'bottom' forms correctly. About to resume the downtrend or time for some sideways action?

That reversal in May looks like an inverted H&S which has broken through and then the trend reversal failed.


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## GreatPig (26 July 2005)

*Re: FKP*

Looking more like a double bottom now.

Cheers,
GP

[I hold]


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## RichKid (26 July 2005)

*Re: FKP*



			
				GreatPig said:
			
		

> Looking more like a double bottom now.
> 
> Cheers,
> GP
> ...




Yes, especially if it breaks through 3.40 tomorrow, that candle from last week with the very long shadow suggests lower prices have been rejected quite firmly.


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## Julia (26 July 2005)

*Re: FKP*

Rich,

For those of us who are technically illiterate, could you translate your last posts?  What does this actually mean to you in terms of possible forthcoming SP?

My apologies for being so ignorant.

With thanks

Julia


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## GreatPig (26 July 2005)

*Re: FKP*

Julia,

My interpretation of what Rich is saying is that the recent bar with a long tail (ie. a low significantly below both the open and close) suggests that the crowd pushed prices right down during the day, but the institutions, who supposedly tend to trade late in the day, forced it back up at the end of the day, effectively rejecting the crowd's lower pricing. Anyway, I've heard that theory mentioned .

Long tails like this can also be caused by automated stop-losses being triggered, as was probably the case back in late March, but price action around this later time doesn't seem to me consistent with that happening (of course that's just a guess).

Cheers,
GP


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## RichKid (26 July 2005)

*Re: FKP*



			
				Julia said:
			
		

> Rich,
> 
> For those of us who are technically illiterate, could you translate your last posts?  What does this actually mean to you in terms of possible forthcoming SP?
> 
> ...




Julia,
I agree generally with GP, although I'm not sure if the buyers are instos (so called 'smart money') or just the bulls (buyers like us). So that candle suggests, in theory, that the bears (sellers) were overwhelmed by the bulls so prices rose and the lower valuation was rejected quite forcefully. If volume was high at the lower prices on that day you could also say that the the majority of the bears were taken out. The bullish story was confirmed in subsequent candles. Do a search for candlesticks in the forums and you'll find more info. It's all just theory, it's hard to know the real reason behind some moves, in TA we don't really care we just trade it as we see it, each of us sees a different thing though.

I referred to 3.40 as it appears to be above a short term resistance level, this could well range between the recent 'bottom' and about 3.32.


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## Julia (27 July 2005)

*Re: FKP*

Richkid and Great  Pig

Thanks to both of you.

Can you continue to comment (in translation) on the progress of this stock as you see it?

With thanks

Julia


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## Caliente (28 July 2005)

*Re: FKP*

looking like a  nice pick so far . 18% rebound off the last bottom.


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## GreatPig (8 August 2005)

*Re: FKP*

Onward and upward.

Oh the pain, the pain... 

GP


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## GreatPig (29 December 2005)

*Re: FKP*

Starting to head up again? Up another 2.6% this morning to $5.21.

Unfortunately I don't have any spare funds to get back on it right now 

Cheers,
GP


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## Julia (29 December 2005)

*Re: FKP*

Yes, isn't it nice.  I doubled my holding about ten days ago.

Julia


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## michael_selway (29 December 2005)

*Re: FKP*



			
				Julia said:
			
		

> Yes, isn't it nice.  I doubled my holding about ten days ago.
> 
> Julia




Wow nice, this stock looks pretty good

it actually turned out to be a double bottom!


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## GreatPig (29 December 2005)

*Re: FKP*

I managed to dig up some funds in my investment portfolio, and got back in at $5.12.

After which it immediately dropped back to nearly $5 again  but has closed at $5.14.

Perhaps I should have waited a few days to see if it will drop back to my new trend line, currently around $4.80, but I know if I did that it would be straight up to $6  (although now that I've bought of course, it will do that...)

Cheers,
GP


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## Julia (29 December 2005)

*Re: FKP*



			
				GreatPig said:
			
		

> I managed to dig up some funds in my investment portfolio, and got back in at $5.12.
> 
> After which it immediately dropped back to nearly $5 again  but has closed at $5.14.
> 
> ...




Hi GP

The same thing happened to me.  I bought my top up lot at $4.70 and all the next day they were down several cents.

They are building more and more very upmarket retirement villages (actually call them Country Clubs rather than retirement villages) - large house size villas, indoor and outdoor pools, tennis courts, adjacent golf courses, community centre, restaurant, bar, etc etc.  This is the sort of place all the cashed up baby boomers will be wanting as a base while they travel in their retirement years.

Julia


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## RichKid (10 January 2006)

*Re: FKP*

Well folks, I hope GP and Julia made some big dollars out of this one, here's the graph. Noticed a reference to it by Alan Kohler oday (see the General Market Outlook 2006 thread).


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## GreatPig (11 January 2006)

*Re: FKP*

RichKid,

Got a good return when I bought back down at the double bottom, but am about break-even so far on the last purchase back in December.

Cheers,
GP


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## RichKid (11 January 2006)

*Re: FKP*



			
				GreatPig said:
			
		

> RichKid,
> 
> Got a good return when I bought back down at the double bottom, but am about break-even so far on the last purchase back in December.
> 
> ...




If it stays at these new highs it looks like people will pyramid or we may see breakout traders accumulate.

If I'd followed EW more closely at that stage I'd have guessed it was a wave 2 bottom at that second bottom (of the double bottom), so this is wave 5 now.


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## Freddy I (29 August 2007)

*Re: FKP - FKP Property Group*

Hi guys,

Ive been looking at FKP for a while now and thought you all may be interested in having a look. For a top 200 company it often has large gap between buyers and sellers and has a fair amount of % daily fluctuation. It is an interesting one to watch.

It announced thismorning that it has just made a further $98m acquisition, however I am unsure what % increase this would represent on its total holdings.

Check it out - its an interesting one to watch.

Cheers


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## Jay-684 (29 August 2007)

*Re: FKP - FKP Property Group*



Freddy I said:


> Hi guys,
> 
> Ive been looking at FKP for a while now and thought you all may be interested in having a look. For a top 200 company it often has large gap between buyers and sellers and has a fair amount of % daily fluctuation. It is an interesting one to watch.
> 
> It announced thismorning that it has just made a further $98m acquisition, however I am unsure what % increase this would represent on its total holdings.




I'm no wizard, but I think it was 'around' a 14% increase in Funds Under Management. Note that 14% increase applies only to FKP Funds Management Limited (a branch of FKP Limited).


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## PortfolioPlus (20 December 2007)

*FKP - Any "Feel" For Debt levels?*

FKP is well positioned in the boom retirement arena as well as having residential and commercial development arms.

In the light of CNP does anyone have a "feel" for their debt levels? They have been expansionary over the past few years. 

Interestingly they confirmed their dividend today...but its down a tad on their stated div increase of 10%


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## AnDy62 (3 March 2008)

*Re: FKP - FKP Property Group*

Hi, I sold FKP today. So, their yearly low has been established... I like their exposure to the retirement industry but in this mkt, the selling pressure is just ridiculous. Maybe I will buy in later


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## PortfolioPlus (1 April 2008)

*Re: FKP - FKP Property Group*

FKP has just announced a complete debt restructure with just 1% of debt requiring repayment this FY and just a very small percentage to be classified as "current". 

This combined with large buying by the CEO (Peter Brown) and principal director (Peter Parker) adds strength to this company which has been savaged because it has been judged "guilty by association" because the insto cattle got spooked.

At last some good news for the "true believers" in a company which has the prime position in a boom industry (retirement, which generates great recurring income streams) and prize development assets. 

Whilst I'm still water-logged on this one, I take solace in having an average share price less than NTA (aroudn $4.90) and with a regular dividend stream that at least equates to bank interest.


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## TheAbyss (19 April 2008)

*Re: FKP - FKP Property Group*

Out of interestes sake, Should FKP decide to divest its retirement village arm, Aveo, what impact? Of course there would be a lot of unknowns in this scenario such as what sell price and why the sale. Can we assume a fair price and they need to due to the model not being as profitable due to the cost of credit?

Just a hypothetical question based on idle thoughts last night while watching the football. I would imagine there are a few businesses pondering profit cuts due to a scarcity of credit and its increased cost to acquire. Any others?


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## Julia (19 April 2008)

*Re: FKP - FKP Property Group*



TheAbyss said:


> Out of interestes sake, Should FKP decide to divest its retirement village arm, Aveo, what impact? Of course there would be a lot of unknowns in this scenario such as what sell price and why the sale. Can we assume a fair price and they need to due to the model not being as profitable due to the cost of credit?
> 
> Just a hypothetical question based on idle thoughts last night while watching the football. I would imagine there are a few businesses pondering profit cuts due to a scarcity of credit and its increased cost to acquire. Any others?



Has there been any suggestion by the company that they are considering this?  If not, why would you think it's a possibility?


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## PortfolioPlus (19 April 2008)

*Re: FKP - FKP Property Group*



Julia said:


> Has there been any suggestion by the company that they are considering this?  If not, why would you think it's a possibility?




None whatsoever and think about it, what FKP has done is quite smart. As a property developer they have looked to "smooth out" the earnings cyclical by adding some stability via the retirement village income. They boast quite openly that 60%+ of their revenue now comes from recurring streams.

It's for this reason that they have been very stable with their dividend streams and even though the property market might be muted for awhile, they do have revenue ticking over and with all debt taken care of in the short term, they have options with their quality developments.

A good company trading at well inside their NTA which has been unfairly trashed by the market. 

Disclaimer: I own shares and at an average price higher than todays price...but a seller I'm not.


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## TheAbyss (19 April 2008)

*Re: FKP - FKP Property Group*



Julia said:


> Has there been any suggestion by the company that they are considering this?  If not, why would you think it's a possibility?




I was clear in pointing out that this was purely hypothetical Julia. Why do i think it a possibility? Anything is possible, some things are more likely than others granted. Just a thought for consideration. 

Will it happen? -No idea. 

Could it happen - never say never.

Impact to FKP? What do you think?

Who might consider such a thing?- Ing want to get into aged care and are looking to have 120+ aged care centres within the next 4 years. 

Who else wants to get into aged care?


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## Tysonboss1 (19 April 2008)

*Re: FKP - FKP Property Group*



TheAbyss said:


> I was clear in pointing out that this was purely hypothetical Julia. Why do i think it a possibility? Anything is possible, some things are more likely than others granted. Just a thought for consideration.
> 
> Will it happen? -No idea.
> 
> ...




FKP getting rid of retirement assets would be like Woolworths getting out of supermarkets,...

I honestly don't think it is at all likely,... In their last annual report it said they are still activly seeking further investments and JV's in the retirement sector.

After having a closer look at FKP I think they are grossly under valued at the moment wil will proberly rebound very shorty,... the lowest rating or this stock on commsec at the moment is hold,... with most rating it a strong Buy.


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## Julia (19 April 2008)

*Re: FKP - FKP Property Group*



PortfolioPlus said:


> None whatsoever and think about it, what FKP has done is quite smart. As a property developer they have looked to "smooth out" the earnings cyclical by adding some stability via the retirement village income. They boast quite openly that 60%+ of their revenue now comes from recurring streams.



Exactly.  I hardly think they'd have spent the last several years acquiring additional retirement villages, clearly with a view to the coming demand from retiring baby boomers, just to toss it away.


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## Tysonboss1 (21 April 2008)

*Re: FKP - FKP Property Group*

I took a postion in this company today at $3.30.

I feel that a rebound is extremly close in this stock,

And if the rebound is some way off it's paying 10.2% dividend (at $3.35), Backed by income producing property.

I don't feel I can go wrong with this stock at the moment.


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## michael_selway (21 April 2008)

*Re: FKP - FKP Property Group*



Tysonboss1 said:


> I took a postion in this company today at $3.30.
> 
> I feel that a rebound is extremly close in this stock,
> 
> ...




Do FKP currently have alot of debt?

*Earnings and Dividends Forecast (cents per share) 
2007 2008 2009 2010 
EPS 88.7 62.4 69.1 75.5 
DPS 31.7 34.2 36.3 39.6 *

thx

MS


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## Tysonboss1 (22 April 2008)

*Re: FKP - FKP Property Group*



michael_selway said:


> Do FKP currently have alot of debt?
> 
> *Earnings and Dividends Forecast (cents per share)
> 2007 2008 2009 2010
> ...





Yes, But as do most property Investments,

It's debt is  100% manageable, especially because it is backe by there hih yeilding retirement villiages and property portfolio that has a regular rental stream.


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## PortfolioPlus (22 April 2008)

*Re: FKP - FKP Property Group*



Tysonboss1 said:


> Yes, But as do most property Investments,
> 
> It's debt is  100% manageable, especially because it is backe by there hih yeilding retirement villiages and property portfolio that has a regular rental stream.




Don't be so quick to draw this conclusion. FKP have followed the Mac Bank model of creating Property Funds where they can keep debt off Balance Sheet.

Certainly I agree that what they are disclosing on Balance Sheet is perfectly manageable and they have virtually nothing that would be considered short term debt....but there's that "black hole" which I know others struggle with as well...and its this...just how do you get to the bottom of the stapled trust scenario which is also running Property Trusts.

Read the Mac Bank threads and do a goodle search on them to get a feel for how some respected analysts perceive MQG. 

But I'm a KFP fan...just wish that reveiwing their financial position was easier.


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## Tysonboss1 (1 May 2008)

*Re: FKP - FKP Property Group*

The share price has shown some strength taday.

it's still trading on a P/e of about 5.5 and a dividend yeild of over 9%so I think it is still great value as an income stock that has good growth prospects.


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## Tysonboss1 (30 May 2008)

*Re: FKP - FKP Property Group*

Fkp has shown some real strengh lately hitting a high today of over $3.70.
..................................................................................................


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## Tysonboss1 (20 June 2008)

*Re: FKP - FKP Property Group*

Someone put a rocket under FKP's share price today, jumped to $5.00.

its good to see this stock back on top,.... however I think there will be alot of profit taking on monday,


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## Bushman (18 March 2009)

*Re: FKP - FKP Property Group*

FKP is rocketing along after hitting a low of the mid-30s. 

Net liabilities are still > net assets but the following positive signs have emerged: 
1. NTA is still $3.60 odd per share! 
2. Mulpha is the number one ticket-holder and has assumed chairmanship of the board. 
3. Asset sales are occuring. 

etc..  

It proves that this share can move up (& down) with a bit of volume.


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## michael_selway (20 March 2009)

*Re: FKP - FKP Property Group*



Bushman said:


> FKP is rocketing along after hitting a low of the mid-30s.
> 
> Net liabilities are still > net assets but the following positive signs have emerged:
> 1. NTA is still $3.60 odd per share!
> ...




Man thats crazy week or so!







*Earnings and Dividends Forecast (cents per share) 
2008 2009 2010 2011 
EPS 61.7 23.5 25.7 31.4 
DPS 34.2 2.0 3.5 4.0 *


thx

MS


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## roofa (20 March 2009)

*Re: FKP - FKP Property Group*

Slashing jobs and not spending, Mulpha look fairly keen on the company. I was watching and waiting for the pre-open to pop up, didn't happen. Volume more than doubled in last hour of trade.


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## samuely1 (24 June 2009)

*Re: FKP - FKP Property Group*

Just discovered a trading halt has been placed on FKP today.  Can anyone give me some information as to why this may have happened?


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## samuely1 (24 June 2009)

*Re: FKP - FKP Property Group*

Sorry. . . I should have read further 

FKP Property Group (FKP) seeks a trading halt in its stapled securities under Listing Rule 17.1
from the commencement of trading on Wednesday 24 June 2009 until the commencement of
trading on Friday, 26 June 2009.
The trading halt is requested pending an announcement by FKP in relation to a potential capital
raising.
FKP is not aware of any reason why the trading halt should not be granted by ASX or any other
information necessary to inform the market about the trading halt.


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## Taltan (24 June 2009)

*Re: FKP - FKP Property Group*

I can't believe Macquarie are involved in this capital raising. Didn't they recommend FKP reject the Lend Lease offer of $5 per share last year???

What are we now 76c.


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## samuely1 (29 June 2009)

*Re: FKP - FKP Property Group*

Just wondering if someone can explain the FKP Entitlement offer for me. . . . I was holding at .6 before the offer came out last week and the last close was at .76.  They opened today around .5.  

"Eligible retail security holders are able to subscribe for 2.3 New Securities for every 1 FKP
security held on the record date at the Offer Price of $0.40 per security, which is the same as
the Offer Price for the Institutional Entitlement Offer."

Does that mean that the shares I own can be exchanged for 2.3 of the current shares at .5 cents? If so how do I go about exchanging them? 
Any advice would be appreciated. Go easy , I'm new to this.


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## skc (29 June 2009)

*Re: FKP - FKP Property Group*



samuely1 said:


> Just wondering if someone can explain the FKP Entitlement offer for me. . . . I was holding at .6 before the offer came out last week and the last close was at .76.  They opened today around .5.
> 
> "Eligible retail security holders are able to subscribe for 2.3 New Securities for every 1 FKP
> security held on the record date at the Offer Price of $0.40 per security, which is the same as
> ...




You retain your existing shares (say you have 10,000).
You now have the right to buy 23,000 additional shares at $0.40.
You will have to pay for it - i.e. using new money.
If you are registered under CHESS you should receive the offer forms in the mail etc. If not, contact your broker on how to take up the offer.
You don't have to take up the offer, you may choose to stand aside.

Note the dates associated with the offer - when are the new shares issued and when can you start to tarde them.

You may also be able to sell your existing holding now, but still retain the right. Again, check the dates and with your borker to make sure your rights are secured.

On paper, the opportunity to buy new shares gives you the potential profit of $0.55 - $0.4 per share, but prices may move before you get a chance to sell them.


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## samuely1 (29 June 2009)

*Re: FKP - FKP Property Group*

What if I choose not to take up the offer, and just sell my current shares?  Do they copensate for that? Can I sell the rights or something like that?


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## skc (29 June 2009)

*Re: FKP - FKP Property Group*



samuely1 said:


> What if I choose not to take up the offer, and just sell my current shares?  Do they copensate for that? Can I sell the rights or something like that?




There are 2 kinds of rights. There are those that can be sold and those cannot be transferred. RIO's right was an example of the first kind.

I don't know about FKP.

If they are non-renounceable (i.e. not transferable and cannot be sold), then you will forfeit that right. There will be no compensation.


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## oldblue (29 June 2009)

*Re: FKP - FKP Property Group*

It is a renounceable entitlement offer. This implies that the rights will be traded and as the ratio is 2.3 for 1, there may be quite a few on offer.

I suggest you have a look at the relevant announcements which are on the ASX announcements website, and probably also on the company's website.

Based on the last cum rights price of 54.5c, the rights have a theoretical value of 4.8c.


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## samuely1 (29 June 2009)

*Re: FKP - FKP Property Group*

So taking up the offer is the only way that I can recover losses during the price drop during the last week?  Am I understanding that right?


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## skyQuake (29 June 2009)

*Re: FKP - FKP Property Group*

Yup, though technically its not a loss. After you work out all the maths, uts up around 6% today, if you take up the rights.


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## Tysonboss1 (29 June 2009)

*Re: FKP - FKP Property Group*



oldblue said:


> It is a renounceable entitlement offer. This implies that the rights will be traded and as the ratio is 2.3 for 1, there may be quite a few on offer.




It is a renouceable offer,

Any shares not taken up by you at 40c per share will be sold under a book build process to institutions.

For example,... FKP want to raise funds by selling you 2.3 extra shares for 40c, so if you hold 1000 shares already they will be offering you 2300 new shares for 40c each.

If you decide not to take up the shares they will be sold to someone else using the book build method ( wiki it ), the book build will have a floor price of 40c, however anything above this floor price will be passed on to you, 

So if they end up selling the shares through the book build for 46c, FKP will keep 40c and pass 6c onto you, as sort of a little bit of compensation for the massive dilution in value you will be receiving.


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## Tysonboss1 (29 June 2009)

*Re: FKP - FKP Property Group*



samuely1 said:


> So taking up the offer is the only way that I can recover losses during the price drop during the last week?  Am I understanding that right?




Yes, this deal will Massively dilute your existing holding if you don't take part.

It's kind of a double edged sword, this deal will secure FKP and provide a healthy buffer against any debt troubles, while also providing funds for future growth, How ever existing share holders that dont take part are going to take a massive hit, though not as big of a hit as they would if FKP failed like ABC.

So by taking part you are pretty much going to be holding position, but by not taking part it's a guranteed loss.


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## oldblue (30 June 2009)

*Re: FKP - FKP Property Group*



oldblue said:


> It is a renounceable entitlement offer. This implies that the rights will be traded and as the ratio is 2.3 for 1, there may be quite a few on offer.
> 
> I suggest you have a look at the relevant announcements which are on the ASX announcements website, and probably also on the company's website.
> 
> Based on the last cum rights price of 54.5c, the rights have a theoretical value of 4.8c.




Got that wrong!

The shares were never actually cum rights although the last traded price before the announcement was around 76c. This gives a theoretical rights value of around 11c. 
The shares are doing a bit better than this today, trading ex rights at around 55c. The rights should follow.


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## oldblue (30 June 2009)

*Re: FKP - FKP Property Group*

I note that the Retail Entitlement Offer booklet states:

"Entitlements will not be able to be traded on the ASX or privately transferred."

So there won't be a rights market as such and shareholders who don't take up their entitlements will have to wait for the results of the eventual bookbuild to see what their "rights" fetch.


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## skc (30 June 2009)

*Re: FKP - FKP Property Group*



oldblue said:


> I note that the Retail Entitlement Offer booklet states:
> 
> "Entitlements will not be able to be traded on the ASX or privately transferred."
> 
> So there won't be a rights market as such and shareholders who don't take up their entitlements will have to wait for the results of the eventual bookbuild to see what their "rights" fetch.




How the hell they calling this renounceable offer but the rights are not transferrable? Does renounceable mean something else? This is quite confusing


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## oldblue (30 June 2009)

*Re: FKP - FKP Property Group*



skc said:


> How the hell they calling this renounceable offer but the rights are not transferrable? Does renounceable mean something else? This is quite confusing




Yes, it's a pretty loose use of the word "renounceable".

I guess it means "If you don't take them up we will do our best to get some value for them, for you."
It seems a bit extreme to prohibit transfer by private arrangement, even if they don't want an active rights market. No doubt they're within their "rights" in acting this way but it seems a bit high handed.


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## Taltan (6 July 2009)

*Re: FKP - FKP Property Group*

Regarding the retail offer I get that sherholders are buying 2.3 units for every unit they hold at 40c. If anyone knows can they explain the difference between taking up the offer at the early retail close date of 9th July and the final close date of 17th July.


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## oldblue (6 July 2009)

*Re: FKP - FKP Property Group*



Taltan said:


> Regarding the retail offer I get that sherholders are buying 2.3 units for every unit they hold at 40c. If anyone knows can they explain the difference between taking up the offer at the early retail close date of 9th July and the final close date of 17th July.




It appears that units applied for before the early retail close date will be allocated on 14 July and will be able to be traded from 15 July.
This may or may not be considered sufficient advantage to justify early application.


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## Taltan (7 July 2009)

*Re: FKP - FKP Property Group*

Thanks just wasnt sure why you would bother going on the 9th. With the shares at 0.46 I'd hate to jump in early have wall st slump and end up with FKP trading at say 0.38 on the 17th and no-one taking up the offer. I think I will wait till the 17th. Even then I'm nervous about a company that only seems to be raising enough to meet its very short-term debts.


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## lioness (16 September 2009)

*Re: FKP - FKP Property Group*

Does anyone consider this a buy when its NTA is 1.22 after dilution??

Seems like a buy to me??

Chart is ina  nice weekly uptrend.


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## roland (16 April 2010)

*Re: FKP - FKP Property Group*

Well, long time coming, but back to that nasty resistance level.

Just like ABP and CQO it seems that interest in the REIT's is starting to pick up.


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## rule1110 (13 May 2010)

*Re: FKP - FKP Property Group*

had a good day today finished at 88c up 6%. Anyone know whats pushing this? I hope this trend continues


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## SmellyTerror (16 May 2010)

*Re: FKP - FKP Property Group*

It was sharply up, but on quite low volume. Next day: the hangman with a solid NO from the 90 mark.

Not looking good, especially with the Euro and US markets on Friday.

Bye bye breakout. And we hardly knew ye...

Best we can hope for is it'll find some new support at 77-80, I think.


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## Looingforvalue (16 May 2010)

*Re: FKP - FKP Property Group*



rule1110 said:


> had a good day today finished at 88c up 6%. Anyone know whats pushing this? I hope this trend continues




Not before time too! The commercial property market is turning...albeit slowly..residential has been strong and will get stronger if the reported shortage in supply is correct.

Each day, we get some report of someone buying a property here and there in the Property Section of the AFR...ALZ buying the previous Stock Exchange building in Melbourne to redevelop into a commercial/residential complex...FKP bidding for a site in Sydney...Mirvac buying Westpac Office Trust for 2% above NTA...Charter Hall talking about lauching new unlisted trusts to buy properties (they think the investor appetite is returning)...etc etc...All this on top of foreign buying.

And all these purchases are at or above NTA! In contrast to many of the midsize to small listed property trusts, which are selling 20 to 40% BELOW NTA! something doesn't seem right here.

If it is good enough for the astute investor to put cold hard cash into real unlisted properties at NTA, it shouldn't be long before the discount we are seeing in the listed sector disappear, you would think.

Remember, before the GFC, REITS were trading at 10-50% premiums to NTA.
Not suggesting that's coming back in a hurry...but Discount...that's a different story...

The day FKP closed at 88c was also the day the AFR had an article on FKP looking at buying into a Sydney site for apartments development. The same article referred to FKP developing a couple of other projects, one of which is 100% pre-sold and the other 90% pre-sold.

Of all the sectors, residential is the strongest. And FKP is steering more and more into this sector. The company, according the CEO, who appeared on Business Spectator TV a few weeks ago, has a land bank, and does not have to buy anything to grow...It already has the land to develop. But hell, if you can add to your land bank at current depressed prices, why not.

With the rise and rise of residential property prices, it would not be too far fetched to suggest that the land bank must be increasing in value.

May be not straightaway...but at some stage...it is not unreasonable to assume that FKP will write UP (NOT down as it has been doing the last 2 years) the value of its property assets.

Its Dec 09 NTA was $1.27 a share. Well, it should be closer to $1.30 with the second (June 2010) half earnings one would think... and probably higher still if we allowed for some upvaluation of its land bank and retirement properties.

The anaylsts (always the ones to jump onto a current bandwagon..not the ones to tell you where the next bandwagon is!) say institutional investors are not interested in REITs now ....we hear that from time to time about any sector that is temporarily out of favour. 

Make no mistake. These investors are out there to make money...anything that promises a good return will be pounced on...REITs included...So when the current incipient recovery in property stocks gathers momentum, look out for the stampede into them. It always happens. Wonder why instos were ploughing into tech stocks in 1999-2000, into entrepreneurial stocks in 1987. and into tulip stocks going way back?

Westfield's Frank Lowy, the Warren Buffet of the property investors, is giving us the best hint. Westfield is beefing up its development pipeline in the US...wait..no mistake...IN THE US, where there is hardly an analyst who dares stick his or her neck out with a positive recommendation on the sector.

And Westfield is not alone. Simon Properties and Brookfields not wanting to miss out on General Growth..

So FKP has had, in my humble view, attracted a stirring of interest...it is never an easy straight road...but give it 6 months or a year...the discount to NTA, barring any unforeseen developments, should close.

Stocks like ALZ, 26% discount to NTA, MGR etc etc will all rise, when that happens.

That's my humble opinion...but take your risk.


----------



## TheAbyss (27 October 2010)

*Re: FKP - FKP Property Group*

FKP looking ok compared to a year ago. Steady improvement has been reflected in the share price based on a decent turn around (4.53 cents profit per share v a loss of 70.3 cps in 2009).

FKP are still in the red from an assetts v liabilities perspective however it is looking better imo. Profitability is slowly increasing which can't be a bad thing either.

Decent run in the SP today based on Stockland saying they are comfortable holding their FKP stake add to that they have sold off their GPT stake and maybe Stockland will take another crack at FKP?

http://www.businessspectator.com.au...ke-sale-pd20101027-ALTTH?OpenDocument&src=hp6


----------



## nulla nulla (9 June 2011)

*Re: FKP - FKP Property Group*

With a yield of $3.8%, the low Earnings per share and a highish price to earnings multiple, FKP is a fairly unloved share at the moment and this shows in the downward trajectory of the chart. However, at yesterdays closing price of $0.67, FKP is trading at probably the largest discount to NTA ($1.24) than any of the other Australian REIT's. 

Recent volumes of turnover have been low and the majority of the stock is held by 5-6 share holders (most of whom are not selling). One the larger shareholders is Stockland Group. 

Stockland invested in FKP and GPT before the gfc and has subquently unloaded the GPT stake. Stockland has also recently announced that it is negotiating to unload $200 million of Industrial assets to re-invest same in assets more in line with it's core strategy of Retail, Residential and Retirement (the 3 R's). Some is earmarket for residential developments and some will be used in other areas in line with their strategy of the 3 R's.

Their investment in FKP was allegedly because FKP also invests in "Retirement" which fitted in with SGP's long term strategy. Is it possible some of the $200 million might find it's way into FKP? Share purchase, joint venture, merger, acquisition??????

Dunno, but with the hefty discount to NTA and all the current interest of overseas hedge funds in our discounted reit's, FKP could be worth paying more attention too in the months ahead.  It could get even cheaper.  As always DYOR.


----------



## nulla nulla (23 June 2011)

*Re: FKP - FKP Property Group*

Nice bounce. Pity I got out at $0.70 to buy wbc.  




Sometimes you get it right and sometimes you jump to early.


----------



## Julia (23 June 2011)

*Re: FKP - FKP Property Group*



nulla nulla said:


> Nice bounce. Pity I got out at $0.70 to buy wbc.
> 
> View attachment 43364
> 
> ...



Too early?  Why did you wait until it fell to .70 to get out?  Or did you hold through that downturn and get out when it went back up to 70c?
Re WBC, at least you'll get a better dividend on that.


----------



## nulla nulla (23 June 2011)

*Re: FKP - FKP Property Group*

Entry point was $0.67, could have got $0.705 on open but held looking for an exit at $0.715. Had already taken an entry in wbc @ $21.25 on open and needed to close out fkp to cover wbc before close. Ergo took $0.70 before it dropped back to $0.695. 

Will not be holding wbc for a div unless it takes that long to climb back to $22.30 which is my target exit price.


----------



## nulla nulla (2 July 2011)

*Re: FKP - FKP Property Group*

Bouncing arround a bit in a tight patern. Seems to have found a bottom. Big gap to NTA. Volumes seem to be inconsistant and a bit on the low side. Could do with some more liquidity.


----------



## nulla nulla (7 July 2011)

*Re: FKP - FKP Property Group*

Dropped down to $0.665 on low volume, then good volumes came into play with cross trades at $0.67. Pushed up to $0.685 and looked like it would go to $0.69 on the low volumes in depth, however sellers came in pushing the closing price back to $0.68.

12.4 million turned over with most of it at $0.67. Someone is buying and someone is selling. Personally I looked at it as another entry opportunity, the bounce off $0.665 being (hopefully) a double bottom. If i'm wrong the next level of support appears to be the February 2010 levels of $0.64. 

The NTA of $1.24 means the share price at $0.68 is running at a discount of approx 46%.




The chart is sourced, with thanks, from Incrediblecharts.com.


----------



## So_Cynical (3 July 2012)

*Re: FKP - FKP Property Group*

WOW talk about timing and dumb luck...i brought 15000 shares in FKP this morning at 0.375 for my super fund, i spent a few hours trawling thru the ASX300 last night and somehow came up with FKP :dunno: funny cos i didn't even have it on a watch list and have never given the stock much thought...i only spent 20 minutes looking at the financials too.

I figured the debt situation wasn't to bad, the cap was substantial and the core business sound, its just that the last set of numbers weren't to good, with pretty much all the key numbers falling...but i figure well there is a housing down and substantial credit deleveraging going on so that's somewhat understandable.

The chart looked way way over sold...and then todays housing numbers came out and the SP popped. 
~


----------



## ParleVouFrancois (3 July 2012)

*Re: FKP - FKP Property Group*

The Intelligent Investor wrote a free article on FKP not too long ago about how under a liquidation type scenario you get a big return on your investment, despite the large amounts of debt on the balance sheet.


----------



## skc (4 July 2012)

*Re: FKP - FKP Property Group*



So_Cynical said:


> WOW talk about timing and dumb luck...i brought 15000 shares in FKP this morning at 0.375 for my super fund, i spent a few hours trawling thru the ASX300 last night and somehow came up with FKP :dunno: funny cos i didn't even have it on a watch list and have never given the stock much thought...i only spent 20 minutes looking at the financials too.
> 
> I figured the debt situation wasn't to bad, the cap was substantial and the core business sound, its just that the last set of numbers weren't to good, with pretty much all the key numbers falling...but i figure well there is a housing down and substantial credit deleveraging going on so that's somewhat understandable.
> 
> ...




You are a lucky person, So_C. SGP will probably launch a takeover now that you have a position 

On the charts it'd probably wander back towards 44-48c if the end of the world doesn't happen for another 2 months.


----------



## nulla nulla (7 July 2012)

*Re: FKP - FKP Property Group*

There is a bit of an overhang in the main shareholders accounting for a very large chunk of the shares. Huge discount to nta but has been languishing for 12 months. Well done SC, don't be afraid to lock in your profits.


----------



## So_Cynical (7 July 2012)

*Re: FKP - FKP Property Group*



nulla nulla said:


> There is a bit of an overhang in the main shareholders accounting for a very large chunk of the shares. Huge discount to nta but has been languishing for 12 months. Well done SC, don't be afraid to lock in your profits.




Yeah well it didn't take long for my profits to disappear  FKP traded @ under my buy in price on Friday...still Monday is the start of a new week.


----------



## nulla nulla (7 July 2012)

*Re: FKP - FKP Property Group*



So_Cynical said:


> Yeah well it didn't take long for my profits to disappear  FKP traded @ under my buy in price on Friday...still Monday is the start of a new week.




I feel for you SC. This is the only reit that I have done my dosh on. I bought in at $0.67 last year expecting a rebound then had to bail out at arround $0.49 in August 2011. Even though it rallied back to my entry price it has subsequently dropped back to new lows.  Once burned etc etc. I have moved on. Good luck m8.


----------



## pixel (6 August 2012)

*Re: FKP - FKP Property Group*

Still consolidating...
but today's scan suggest the bottom could be in place.


----------



## So_Cynical (13 August 2012)

*Re: FKP - FKP Property Group*



pixel said:


> Still consolidating...
> but today's scan suggest the bottom could be in place.
> 
> View attachment 48449



~

Good call pixel...the bottom was in as proven by today's price action, FKP touching 43c intra-day.



So_Cynical said:


> (3rd-July-2012) WOW talk about timing and dumb luck...i brought 15000 shares in FKP this morning at 0.375 for my super fund
> ~




6 Weeks later and im out today @ 0.42 ~  11.1% profit in only 6 weeks is a totally acceptable result for such a short holding time.


----------



## nulla nulla (25 August 2012)

*Re: FKP - FKP Property Group*

It looks like SC timed his exit well as the share price has retraced once again. The three (3) year chart doesn't paint a very nice picture. Something is driving the price down but I can't for the like of me understand what or why?


----------



## So_Cynical (25 August 2012)

*Re: FKP - FKP Property Group*



nulla nulla said:


> It looks like SC timed his exit well as the share price has retraced once again. The three (3) year chart doesn't paint a very nice picture. Something is driving the price down but I can't for the like of me understand what or why?




If i had money i would be buying this again at 0.38 ~ plenty of scope for profit at that price IMO

In fact i think ill transfer some of my Super dollars into my super's transaction account...ready for a re-entry.


----------



## nulla nulla (28 August 2012)

*Re: FKP - FKP Property Group*



So_Cynical said:


> If i had money i would be buying this again at 0.38 ~ plenty of scope for profit at that price IMO
> 
> In fact i think ill transfer some of my Super dollars into my super's transaction account...ready for a re-entry.




Did you buy back in SC? How does the Trading Halt/Capital raising affect your perspective of FKP?


----------



## So_Cynical (28 August 2012)

*Re: FKP - FKP Property Group*



nulla nulla said:


> Did you buy back in SC? How does the Trading Halt/Capital raising affect your perspective of FKP?




No nulla... didn't have the money so dodged that bullet  

My perspective...well at 20 CPS its a healthy discount to the average recent price of around 40 CPS, a 6 for 7 rights issue is a little over the top...i mean its a major recapitalisation really isn't it.

But they will wipe out alot of debt (200 million) and the extra money wont cost hardly anything, not like a note or loan would cost, debt will fall from 930 to 730 million....i could understand the frustration of others who have paid significantly more then i did.

I will participate in the entitlement offer, its not like ill miss 750 bucks.... probably an opportunity to pick up a parcel at around the issue price, these things often work out ok if your quick on the day.

http://www.fkp.com.au/media/pdfs/20120828_ASX_Announcement_Results_FINAL.pdf


----------



## Kulio (30 August 2012)

*Re: FKP - FKP Property Group*

Ouch big hit today and also now a new 52 week low. Just curious as to how many of you have lost money on this stock? Would be interesting to see any people admit their losers rather than talk about their winners all the time.


----------



## herzy (30 August 2012)

*Re: FKP - FKP Property Group*

Big hit today was a trading bot error. Can't do much against that! http://www.businessspectator.com.au...trades-pd20120830-XMSFW?OpenDocument&src=hp12


----------



## skc (30 August 2012)

*Re: FKP - FKP Property Group*



herzy said:


> Big hit today was a trading bot error. Can't do much against that! http://www.businessspectator.com.au...trades-pd20120830-XMSFW?OpenDocument&src=hp12




What are they talking about? The low of the day was the open match so has nothing to do with high frequency trading!

The high volume is due to the fact today FKP went ex-entitlement on a jumbo sized capital raising. 

And how on earth did ASIC "pick up more than a month ago" the funny trading in FKP today?!

It would be nice if the reporter can get some facts right, or at least make the non-facts a coherent story.


----------



## herzy (30 August 2012)

*Re: FKP - FKP Property Group*



skc said:


> What are they talking about? The low of the day was the open match so has nothing to do with high frequency trading!
> 
> The high volume is due to the fact today FKP went ex-div on a jumbo sized capital raising.
> 
> ...




Hahaha excellent points. I don't follow this stock and only skimmed the article. *backtracks wildly*


----------



## nulla nulla (30 August 2012)

*Re: FKP - FKP Property Group*

The danger to retail holders is the possible sell off by institutional holders of the parcels they picked up at $0.20.


----------



## So_Cynical (30 August 2012)

*Re: FKP - FKP Property Group*



Kulio said:


> Ouch big hit today and also now a new 52 week low. Just curious as to how many of you have lost money on this stock? Would be interesting to see any people admit their losers rather than talk about their winners all the time.




I'm down 23.63% with the shares im holding ($405.32) ~ but have previously taken a profit of 11.12% ($460.42) so overall im still slightly ahead.  now im also going to get 700 odd dollars worth of new shares at 20c a share, shares that at the moment (28c per share) would be in profit by 40%

So yep no big deal, LCEAA works again.



skc said:


> What are they talking about? The low of the day was the open match so has nothing to do with high frequency trading!
> 
> The high volume is due to the fact today FKP went ex-entitlement on a jumbo sized capital raising.




Yep that's how i saw it....pretty much expected.


----------



## nulla nulla (27 September 2012)

*Re: FKP - FKP Property Group*

Todays activity is probably some profit taking from the shares issued at $0.20. 





That and some investors averaging out and cutting their losses. Time will tell.


----------



## PortfolioPlus (2 October 2012)

*Re: FKP - FKP Property Group*

The best news here is that Peter Brown is departing and (hopefully) new management will give this some oomph!

Right now FKP is been controlled by the bot traders. I expect this to be the case into Christmas. Hopefully then it can get close to the 30c mark.

Porty


----------



## nulla nulla (2 October 2012)

*Re: FKP - FKP Property Group*



PortfolioPlus said:


> The best news here is that Peter Brown is departing and (hopefully) new management will give this some oomph!
> 
> Right now FKP is been controlled by the bot traders. I expect this to be the case into Christmas. Hopefully then it can get close to the 30c mark.
> 
> Porty




How many shares does he own/control? If he decides to unload them what effect will it have on the share price?


----------



## So_Cynical (12 October 2012)

*Re: FKP - FKP Property Group*

I just bought 25000 shares at 0.23 for my super fund...the market of course will do what ever it will but i just cant see it going much lower even though a few trades have gone thru at 0.225.

FKP trade #2 for my super fund, following my (LCEAA) Low Cost Entry And Averaging strategy.


----------



## So_Cynical (16 October 2012)

*Re: FKP - FKP Property Group*



So_Cynical said:


> I just bought 25000 shares at 0.23 for my super fund...the market of course will do what ever it will but i just cant see it going much lower even though a few trades have gone thru at 0.225.
> 
> FKP trade #2 for my super fund, following my (LCEAA) Low Cost Entry And Averaging strategy.




The SP seems to be holding at 0.225 - 0.23 with a big drop in volume today down to only 1.7m shares, the daily average over the preceding 5 days was about 8m with a range of 5.2m to 9.4m

Will be interesting to see where the SP goes from here, sideways and up is my guess.


----------



## nulla nulla (17 October 2012)

*Re: FKP - FKP Property Group*

The institutional and retail placement were apparantly completed on 27 September 2012. If there was going to be any Institutional profit taking on the issue price of $0.20 you'd think it has shown up by now. 

Have you seen anywhere in the announcements as to what their distribution policy will be going forward?


----------



## nulla nulla (19 November 2012)

*Re: FKP - FKP Property Group*

Just when I thought it might be safe to take a small stake in FKP with a view to the longer term, it managed to drop another 10%.




Maybe later when some stability has returned to the sector, etc etc.


----------



## prawn_86 (19 November 2012)

*Re: FKP - FKP Property Group*

I like these guys in theory, but i havent done much digging, and would definitely be wanting that trend to reverse first


----------



## Julia (19 November 2012)

*Re: FKP - FKP Property Group*



prawn_86 said:


> would definitely be wanting that trend to reverse first



+100.


----------



## So_Cynical (19 November 2012)

*Re: FKP - FKP Property Group*



nulla nulla said:


> Just when I thought it might be safe to take a small stake in FKP with a view to the longer term, it managed to drop another 10%.
> 
> View attachment 49687
> 
> ...




It is a screaming buy now, a total no brainer, one comes along every month of so and for me this is the simplest one at the moment....an absolute lock with dividend 2 months away.

Of course i have no money.


----------



## skc (20 November 2012)

*Re: FKP - FKP Property Group*



So_Cynical said:


> It is a screaming buy now, a total no brainer, one comes along every month of so and for me this is the simplest one at the moment....an absolute lock with dividend 2 months away.
> 
> Of course i have no money.




How much dividend are they going to pay? Having almost doubled their number of issued shares, they can at best give out ~1.4c per share for the year. This equates to 7.5% yield which is not too different to something like ALZ, CFX, CQR which don't have the debt problem.

Having said that FKP is planning to demerge (for some time now) their retirement assets and seems to be forever a takeover target. 

Risks vs rewards....


----------



## prawn_86 (21 November 2012)

*Re: FKP - FKP Property Group*

Under 20c certainly is tempting, even if just for a bit of a bounce to the 22c region


----------



## Julia (21 November 2012)

*Re: FKP - FKP Property Group*



skc said:


> How much dividend are they going to pay? Having almost doubled their number of issued shares, they can at best give out ~1.4c per share for the year. This equates to 7.5% yield



Etrade is quoting 12.8% with 42.8% franking.
I don't know how reliable Etrade is here.
Even that yield wouldn't tempt me into such a downtrend.


----------



## Ves (21 November 2012)

*Re: FKP - FKP Property Group*



Julia said:


> Etrade is quoting 12.8% with 42.8% franking.
> I don't know how reliable Etrade is here.
> Even that yield wouldn't tempt me into such a downtrend.



I agree this company certainly is not investment grade in my book.  I probably looked at the balance sheet for as long as you looked at the chart!


----------



## skc (22 November 2012)

*Re: FKP - FKP Property Group*



Julia said:


> Etrade is quoting 12.8% with 42.8% franking.
> I don't know how reliable Etrade is here.
> Even that yield wouldn't tempt me into such a downtrend.




That is wrong. Etrade taking last year's dividend in their yield calcuation. Shares on issue almost doubled since then.


----------



## Julia (22 November 2012)

*Re: FKP - FKP Property Group*



skc said:


> That is wrong. Etrade taking last year's dividend in their yield calcuation. Shares on issue almost doubled since then.




Thanks for clarifying that, skc.  I was dubious about it, but not having looked at FKP for years didn't know.


----------



## nulla nulla (22 November 2012)

*Re: FKP - FKP Property Group*

While the annual report for year ending 30 June 2012 makes reference to the dividends for 2011-2012. I couldn't see any guidance for the financial year 2012-2013. 

 I can't see a take over as it is very tightly held by the main shareholders and I believe SGP has dibs over the sale of any of the retirements assets. If you think about FKP's prospects, with a nta way higher than the current share price, it is worth more to the share holders (particularly those buying in at these levels) if it was broken up and sold off at book value.


----------



## So_Cynical (22 November 2012)

*Re: FKP - FKP Property Group*



So_Cynical said:


> (19th-November-2012) It is a screaming buy now, a total no brainer, one comes along every month of so and for me this is the simplest one at the moment....an absolute lock with dividend 2 months away.
> 
> Of course i have no money.






nulla nulla said:


> with a nta way higher than the current share price, it is worth more to the share holders (particularly those buying in at these levels) if it was broken up and sold off at book value.




Closed at 20.5 today ..as i said "a screaming buy" 3 and 4 days ago, one of the easiest 10%+ opportunities i have seen this year.


----------



## nulla nulla (23 November 2012)

*Re: FKP - FKP Property Group*

On page 14 of the FKP Annual Report 2012, "Financial Overview as at 30 June 2012" The following information is provided:

1. Underlying earnings per security of *$0.079c *per security;
2. Distribution of *$0.028 *cents per security (for the 2012 period);
3. Net Tangible Assets (NTA) per stapled security of *$0.90*; and
4. Gearing of *39.1%*.

On page 49 of the report, the Earnings per security (as distinct to the "underlying" earnings per security) is reported at *minus $0.292 *per security. The loss appears to be after the accounting for negative revaluations of assets.

On page 71 of the report under "Earnings per security" it is disclosed in point (b) that the number of shares used to calculate earnings per share is *1,197,979,540 *being the weighted average number of ordinary securities on issue as at 30 June 2012. 

On page 125 of the report it is reported under the Security Holders staement as at 3 October 2012 that the total number of securities on issue is *2,251,016,386*.

In the Financial Overiew information on page 14, the supporting notes at the foot of the page disclose that:

a. Following the Entitlement offer of 28 August the revised *NTA per stapled security is $0.58*; and
b. Following the Entitlement offer of 28 August the gearing is reduced to *32.1%*.

*If* the underlying earnings per security is maintained at the 2012 level in 2013 this would equate to an earnings per share (using the new share total) of aproximately *$0.042 *per stapled security.
*If *FKP maintained the same distribution ratio of underlying earnings in 2013 as they did in 2012 ($0.028 of $0.079) they distribution of underlying earnings would be aproximately $0.0116. 

The REIT table would look something like this:


	Share:		FKP	  	Date:		Closing 22-11-2012	  	Closing Price		0.205		Issued Shares		2,251,016,386		Capital		461,458,359		Earnings $ 		0.0420		Dist $ 		0.0116		ROE 		20.49%		Yield %		5.66%		P/E		4.88		NTA $		0.58		Discount to NTA		64.66%	

*Disclaimer*: The figures in the table in respect of earnings per share, return on equity, distributions and yield are speculative, based on the assumption of fkp maintaining underlying earnings and distributing earnings going forward in the same manner as they have in 2012. The may not earn as much due to soft conditions in real estate, retirements and a host of other factors. The figures should not be relied upon to make investment decisions. I recomend anyone interested in FKP contact the FKP investor realtions officer and ask them direct. 

If I have made any errors in my reading of the report, posting of figures and calculations, I am happy to be corrected.

As always Do Your Own Research and good luck.


----------



## nulla nulla (30 November 2012)

*Re: FKP - FKP Property Group*

FKP to do a one (1) for seven (7) consolidation following todays agm.


----------



## Julia (30 November 2012)

*Re: FKP - FKP Property Group*

Even in this week's newspaper reports and "Smart Investor" the yield is still being quoted as over 12%.
Two emails to Etrade on this have resulted in "oh, thank you, we'll look into it" but nothing is changed.
Very misleading for anyone who hasn't been following the stock.


----------



## skc (30 November 2012)

*Re: FKP - FKP Property Group*



Julia said:


> Even in this week's newspaper reports and "Smart Investor" the yield is still being quoted as over 12%.
> Two emails to Etrade on this have resulted in "oh, thank you, we'll look into it" but nothing is changed.
> Very misleading for anyone who hasn't been following the stock.




I think you'd find that the heading says "historical yield". It's not possible for the magazine or etrade to predict what each company will pay in dividend per share.

In fact I don't know even Iress, which adjusts the share price charts for major capital raisings, would adjust historical dividends and work out the prospective yield.


----------



## Julia (30 November 2012)

*Re: FKP - FKP Property Group*

No, the heading is just "Dividend Yield".  I suppose, however, the 'historical' should be a given.


----------



## nulla nulla (19 December 2012)

*Re: FKP - FKP Property Group*

The attached chart from "IncredibleCharts" has been adjusted to reflect the consolidation of 7 shares to 1. The chart covers a period of 2 years. This would have to be the worst performing share in the A-REIT sector since November 2010 coming off a high of the equivelent of $5.25 and dropping to yesterdays close of $1.14 (~$0.16 pre consolidation).





You'd almost be tempted to buy it on the chance that they would elect to sell off all the assets and return capital to the share holders, claimed nta per share being significantly higher than the share price. Then again, the bulk of the shares are so tightly held by a handfull of investors, the risk is they decide to de-list from the ASX and go private.

As of close of business yesterday there had not been any announcement as to whether or not they intend to do an interim dividend for the period ending 31 December 2012. It will be interesting to see if there is a distribution announcement or whether they decide not to do a distribution given they just did a capital raising at $0.20 followed by the consolidation. As always, do your own research and good luck.


----------



## prawn_86 (19 December 2012)

*Re: FKP - FKP Property Group*



nulla nulla said:


> As of close of business yesterday there had not been any announcement as to whether or not they intend to do an interim dividend for the period ending 31 December 2012. It will be interesting to see if there is a distribution announcement or whether they decide not to do a distribution given they just did a capital raising at $0.20 followed by the consolidation. As always, do your own research and good luck.




This is still on my watchlist as seeming to be way oversold but as others have said i dont want to get in too early. If they dont give a distribution one would assume the stock would drop even further


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## nulla nulla (19 December 2012)

*Re: FKP - FKP Property Group*



prawn_86 said:


> This is still on my watchlist as seeming to be way oversold but as others have said i dont want to get in too early. If they dont give a distribution one would assume the stock would drop even further




Rallied $0.08 or 7% so far today, moderate volumes. Still on my watch list also.


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## skc (19 December 2012)

*Re: FKP - FKP Property Group*



nulla nulla said:


> As of close of business yesterday there had not been any announcement as to *whether or not they intend to do an interim dividend for the period ending 31 December 2012.* It will be interesting to see if there is a distribution announcement or whether they decide not to do a distribution given they just did a capital raising at $0.20 followed by the consolidation. As always, do your own research and good luck.




They already said no dividend at the AGM. See chairman address on 30 Nov



> Finally, in line with this strategy and after consultation with our major securityholders, the Board
> has deemed it prudent for FKP not to pay any dividend in relation to FY13.


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## nulla nulla (19 December 2012)

*Re: FKP - FKP Property Group*



skc said:


> They already said no dividend at the AGM. See chairman address on 30 Nov




Thanks for that. I read FY13 as no interim div end of December and no final div end of June 2013. Bummer, I'll adjust my tables accordingly.


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## prawn_86 (3 January 2013)

*Re: FKP - FKP Property Group*

A base forming for a push higher or just waiting for another leg down? Without a dividend it is hard to see what will entice buyers back, although there is always persistent takeover talk i just cant see that being enough on its own to force the turnaround


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## prawn_86 (16 January 2013)

*Re: FKP - FKP Property Group*

Up 24% since my last post, has certainly taken off. If it can close on the highs today then there is a big case for the downtrend having been broken


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## nulla nulla (16 January 2013)

*Re: FKP - FKP Property Group*

There is a write up in todays "Money" section of the Sydney Morning Herald that Infrastructure shares are the way to go in 2013. It probably isn't the reason for the jump, but a bounce has been way overdue for a long time.

The share price has now rallied past the equivelent of $0.20 (7 x $0.20 = $1.40) from the capital raising which is a really positive sign, imo. Be good to see it close the gap to nta a bit further. Wonder if they have unloaded any further non core assets/paid down more debt?


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## white_goodman (21 January 2013)

*Re: FKP - FKP Property Group*

im happy to have been overweight FKP


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## So_Cynical (21 January 2013)

*Re: FKP - FKP Property Group*



white_goodman said:


> im happy to have been overweight FKP




Ill second that.  just would of been better for me if i had waited a bit for my first parcel...and gone again at the bottom.


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## prawn_86 (1 February 2013)

*Re: FKP - FKP Property Group*



So_Cynical said:


> Ill second that.  just would of been better for me if i had waited a bit for my first parcel...and gone again at the bottom.




Once it turned, it turned with a vengances that's for sure. Up over 40% in the last few weeks, why is it i pass on the ones like this and then end up buying the ones who go nowhere


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## nulla nulla (1 February 2013)

*Re: FKP - FKP Property Group*



prawn_86 said:


> Once it turned, it turned with a vengances that's for sure. Up over 40% in the last few weeks, why is it i pass on the ones like this and then end up buying the ones who go nowhere




Don't beat yourself up over it. The rise looks fantastic, but if you analise it, the daily volumes were very thin. The run up was made up of retail buying through small numbers of sellers. Each days daily turnover was relatively low when compared with the volumes changing hands when the share price dropped. A dirth of sellers and moderate numbers of desperate buyers. You'd think there was a takeover offer in the making but if you looked at the break up of the major shareholders, you would realise how unlikely this event would be.

Irrational exuberance, gap filling of an oversold share...who nows? If you hold, be happy. If you missed the entry, don't worry about it as there will be other opportunities. Personaly I wouldn't be surprised if there was a modest retrace. It is still unclear what they intend to do about the June div. At least now it is trading above the capital raising level of $1.40 (7 x $0.20).


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## nulla nulla (18 June 2013)

*Re: FKP - FKP Property Group*

Just an update. Today FKP hit a new low of $1.05, when most other A-REIT's consolidated or went up.





Hard to believe that six years ago this share was worth the equivalent of $27+


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## nulla nulla (15 September 2013)

*Re: FKP - FKP Property Group*

The market seems to be warming to the new management and strategy. The share price has rallied strongly this month, so far. It even looks to be breaking out side ways from the downward spiral. 




Fingers crossed that they can work on increasing the level of returns and closing the gap between the share price and the NTA.


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## Gringotts Bank (7 October 2013)

*Re: FKP - FKP Property Group*

breakout.


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## Gringotts Bank (10 October 2013)

*Re: FKP - FKP Property Group*



Gringotts Bank said:


> breakout.




Good attempt at a shakeout yesterday, but the close told the story.


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## nulla nulla (10 October 2013)

*Re: FKP - FKP Property Group*

FKP has done well for the last two days running. Seems SGP has seen fit to reduce their level of FKP holding and the market likes this. Still got a long way to go to get anywhere near the NTA value.


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## So_Cynical (21 October 2013)

*Re: FKP - FKP Property Group*

I'm totally out today at $1.87 ~ i have seen FKP retrace so many times now i just had to sell out, as a bonus im 4 days over holding 12 months so get the CGT discount (Superfunds get the discount?)...as a negative my Superfund has suffered its first losing trade, my first FKP parcel.

Results below.
~


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## VSntchr (21 October 2013)

*Re: FKP - FKP Property Group*



So_Cynical said:


> I'm totally out today at $1.87 ~ i have seen FKP retrace so many times now i just had to sell out, as a bonus im 4 days over holding 12 months so get the CGT discount (Superfunds get the discount?)...as a negative my Superfund has suffered its first losing trade, my first FKP parcel.
> 
> Results below.
> ~




Yeah super funds get the discount however it operates a little differently. The normal 15% tax rate is lowered to 10% for gains over 12 months...


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## System (12 December 2013)

On December 10th, 2013, FKP Property Group changed its name and ASX code to AVEO Group (AOG).


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## piggybank (9 January 2014)

View attachment 56227


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## basilio (26 June 2017)

*Is Aveo worth shorting ?*

Aveo is certainly in the news at the moment.  Since the name change they have created a new direction for the company and focused  on maximising the returns on their historic and developing Retirement Village complexes. In particular they have developed the "Aveo Way" . This seems to be streamlined  mechanism to simplify the contracts with Retirement Village occupants.  

Ultimately The "Aveo way" is very commercially focused on the interests on Aveo.  This is made clear in the financial reports they made earlier this year which highlight the sharp increase in profits they anticipate from rolling out this strategy. 

Unfortunately the process of extracting these significantly higher profits from the current and ex residents of the Villages has created some really big waves that could result in blowback to management, the company and perhaps the entire industry.  The Fairfax Press has been running a series of articles in the past few days highlighting the practices of the company and 4 Corners will pull the story together this evening.  

The consequences for the SP in the short term seems fragile  and if The Aveo Way practices  are seen as just too one sided the projections made in Feb 17 could go down the toilet.

https://www.aveo.com.au/wp-content/...15-AOG-HY17-Financial-Results-Presenation.pdf
http://www.abc.net.au/news/2017-06-24/elderly-exploited-in-aveo-retirement-villages/8645876


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## basilio (26 June 2017)

No surprises on the share market. 8% fall as nervous investors jump out.

It will be interesting to see if AOG sue 4 Corners over tonights program. The title itself is challenging

*Watch 'Bleeding Them Dry Until They Die' on Four Corners at 8:30pm on ABC TV on Monday night.*


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## Bushman (26 June 2017)

An abundance of caution would be my suggestion. 

1. we saw with Estia & the like what can happen when you over-earn on the back of the aged. 
2. The financials appear average - 1H17 accounts, operating cash-flow fell from substantially to $150m. Compare this to the p&l, where a profit was booked on the back of asset revals. 
3. Retirement villages always suffer with cash conversion due to the DML model. To fill the cash gap, they try to churn through units & add new units where they can earn development profits. But this is a highly cyclical revenue stream. 

However, at least the debt is not as high as the FKP days and there is no housing or asset mgt.


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## basilio (27 June 2017)

The 4 Corners program was very disturbing.  I think there is a real risk of an strong independent inquiry into the Aveos practices and the industry as a whole. The proposal to collapse the exit fee (35-40% of sale price) to three years creates a moral hazard of immense proportions.

The story to date indicates the company is quite committed to using churn tactics to maintain it's expected profit levels. I think an independent inquiry would find this unconscionable.  I believe there will be more coming out of the current investigations and I think the publicity generated by the program will pull out many more disgruntled present and past residents. One law firm has indicated they are prepared to run a class action on behalf of residents if asked.

SP  is still falling.
http://levittrobinson.com/victorian-parliaments-missed-opportunity-on-retirement-housing-sector/
http://www.canberratimes.com.au/interactive/2017/retirement-racket/bleed-them-dry/


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## basilio (27 June 2017)

Just noticed another interesting tidbit on ASX

Aveo has announced a 10% on market share buyback. It's called capital management but  it would certainly mop up concerned sellers and help keep the SP up.

Will be interesting to see how many shares are taken by AOG and how quickly.
https://hotcopper.com.au/threads/ann-announcement-of-buy-back-appendix-3c.3509379/


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## basilio (2 July 2017)

There might be an ASX investigation into the Aveo share buyback. The share buyback which essentially has supported the SP which is under pressure because of the current intense investigations of it's financial and operational practices.

Turns out as the market took big hits because of the 4 Corners/Age investigation the big buyers were associated with AOG - before the public announcement of the buyback. 

* 'A raised eyebrow': calls for probe into Aveo share trading *
The corporate watchdog has been called on to investigate recent trading of Aveo’s shares ahead of the company announcing a $145 million buy back this week.



*Adele Ferguso*
Investment specialists have called on the corporate watchdog to investigate recent trading of Aveo's shares by its largest shareholder Mulpha and a director ahead of the company's announcement of a $145 million buyback this week.

The buyback of 9.3 per cent of the company's shares was launched on Tuesday after emergency weekend board discussions triggered by the publication of the first articles in a joint Fairfax Media-_Four Corners _investigation into the sector and Aveo in particular.
http://www.canberratimes.com.au/bus...-into-aveo-share-trading-20170628-gx08sa.html


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## basilio (3 July 2017)

AOG continue to fall this morning. Down 4.3% /12c.  I don't think the market would have been impressed with the announcement this morning that AOG would offer no clarification of incidents surrounding residents because they wanted to respect their privacy. 

Perhaps more to the point I think such a response will create a stronger sense of concern that their activities need  to be investigated.


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## mcgrath111 (28 July 2017)

basilio said:


> AOG continue to fall this morning. Down 4.3% /12c.  I don't think the market would have been impressed with the announcement this morning that AOG would offer no clarification of incidents surrounding residents because they wanted to respect their privacy.
> 
> Perhaps more to the point I think such a response will create a stronger sense of concern that their activities need  to be investigated.



The buy back can't come soon enough for AOG, although it all smells very fishy - surely legal proceedings are in the pipeline.


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## greggles (16 August 2017)

Aveo Group up over 11% today after releasing its 2017 financial year results. After reaching a low of $2.38 earlier this month from highs of $3.51 a year ago, it looks like things could be turning around for AOG.

Key financial highlights for FY17 include:

statutory profit after tax of $252.8 million, up 118%;
underlying profit after tax and non-controlling interest up 22% to $108.4 million;
earnings per stapled security (EPS) on underlying profit after tax and non-controlling interest up 11% to 18.9 cents, despite the impact of the additional equity raised to fund the RVG and Freedom acquisitions;
funds from operations (FFO) of $163.9 million ($141.3 million in FY16), largely driven by lower capitalised interest included in cost of goods sold and higher income tax expense; and
net tangible assets per stapled security of $3.37, up 12% from 30 June 2016.


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## System (5 December 2019)

On December 2nd, 2019, Aveo Group (AOG) was removed from the ASX's Official List in accordance with Listing Rule 17.11, following implementation of the scheme of arrangement between AOG and its shareholders in connection with the acquisition of all the issued capital in AOG by Hydra RL BidCo Pty Ltd, an entity controlled by Brookfield Asset Management Inc. on behalf of its managed funds.


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