# Who is ready for a rally?



## agro (11 October 2008)

if this is the bear, people are selling on panic

imagine the bull, +700 in a day etc..

everyone ready for the next bull run?


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## Nyden (11 October 2008)

agro said:


> if this is the bear, people are selling on panic
> 
> imagine the bull, +700 in a day etc..
> 
> everyone ready for the next bull run?




I definitely await the next bull run with enthusiasm, but +700 in a day? No, probably not going to happen.

The value of many stocks has probably nearly decreased in line with the falls - such as reduced earnings (eg importers suffering from a low AUD), and the end of the commodities boom.

I'm still betting on this thing dragging out over a couple of years ... unfortunately.


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## Aussiejeff (11 October 2008)

Damn... wrong thread. I was looking for a game of TENNIS!!! :hide:


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## oztrades (11 October 2008)

LMFAO!
I think you got your game... just not the game you wanted... are you going to be like the NYSE and ring your own bell on this one?

Seriousily though I cant but see that Australia is going to come out better for this in many ways. We are Australia Inc. so we should grab this opportunity for all its worth. Go Australia.


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## Aussiejeff (11 October 2008)

oztrades said:


> LMFAO!
> I think you got your game... just not the game you wanted... are you going to be like the NYSE and ring your own bell on this one?
> 
> Seriousily though I cant but see that Australia is going to come out better for this in many ways. We are Australia Inc. so we should grab this opportunity for all its worth. Go Australia.




Shirley it carn't get any werse? *hic*


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## Julia (11 October 2008)

> =oztrades;348156]LMFAO!
> I
> Seriousily though I cant but see that Australia is going to come out better for this in many ways.




Do you mean better than other countries?
Better than we were before?
Why do you think Australia is "going to come out better"?


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## Trembling Hand (12 October 2008)

Who is read for the rally??

A lot of people. The only problem is though they have been ready for it the last 10 month. Holding all the way down.

LOL


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## Sean K (12 October 2008)

I'm prepared, but living in hotels is making it difficult to trade moves at the moment ... 

Waiting for a potential bottom, or close enough.


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## sammy84 (12 October 2008)

I for one believe we will be seeing a rally this week. Everything that happened last week pointed towards a bottom;
1. There were record trade volumes traded in the US.
2. There was raw unadulterated fear that swept every market and lead to record losses.
3. Market volatility was at an all time high

And now we have;
1. The bail out plan coming closer to actually pouring funds into the market.
2. The plan for Fanny and Freddie to start buying 40b of bad mortgages a month
3. The coordinated action of G7. Even though their current plans are as of yet are vague, I think we can still be confident that no G7 country is going to let another Lehman bros happen. Hopefully this removal of fear will start filtering into the market.

I'm ready for a rally sometime next week


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## agro (12 October 2008)

sammy84 said:


> I for one believe we will be seeing a rally this week. Everything that happened last week pointed towards a bottom;
> 1. There were record trade volumes traded in the US.
> 2. There was raw unadulterated fear that swept every market and lead to record losses.
> 3. Market volatility was at an all time high
> ...




I for one agree

not to mention that the government will start buying Bank stocks..

if the SPI is indicative of anything, one green day might just do it 

though, we need a green day in america seeing though they have had 8 days straight


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## alphaman (12 October 2008)

I think this thread illustrates very well why bear rallies occur.


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## So_Cynical (13 October 2008)

I'm ready for the inevitable rally

what goes down must come up....eventually.


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## tech/a (13 October 2008)

A busy day today.


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## CAB SAV (13 October 2008)

tech/a said:


> A busy day today.




A busy week in US. PPI & CPI due, major banks reporting.
Rally? How long?


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## Aussiejeff (13 October 2008)

Depends on whether the plunge in oil prices overnight affects energy sector company shares more than the "confidence" lift given to financial sector company shares by our esteemed leader's announcements. There's been a big bounce in the $AUBananaBuck overnight too.

On the possible downside, the expected "decisive news" from the G7 & G20 meetings was hardly awe-inspiring - more like comforting platitudes with no real detail. Euro commentators don't seem too impressed.

I suspect an early ASX rally might be on the cards, but the futures for Asia and Europe still look pretty grim ATM, so any green here in the AM might not last into late PM trading?

Toss a coin!!


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## OzWaveGuy (13 October 2008)

Aussiejeff said:


> I suspect an early ASX rally might be on the cards, but the futures for Asia and Europe still look pretty grim ATM, so any green here in the AM might not last into late PM trading?
> 
> Toss a coin!!




Right, PM it could get a bit hairy. Maybe a reversal at 4250 on the XJO (4260 on the futures)....


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## treefrog (13 October 2008)

a few weeks rally? - possibly
a few days bounce? - likely
a turn from bear to bull? - nope

my reasoning from the following chart which crudely shows consumer sentiment in this consumer led economy

XDJ (consumer discretionary) is generally regarded as a market barometer and held true to reputation in leading the general market down (XJO red) - blue is XSJ (consumer staples - the "we all gotta eat" index
.
so ST, there will be a few bob in the bull rallies, but MT and LTers should keep their ears and eyes on the XDJ sentiment - atm is now below its 8yr low.
.
maybe an EW take on this index would be interesting OzWaveGuy??


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## MRC & Co (13 October 2008)

I was thinking a rally may be on the cards, with all the absolute panic in the markets.  But then I wondered how bigger magnitutde it would actually be, considering the short ban.  

A rally would probably be a good time to bail out for a lot of these super loaded boomers.


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## Seneca60BC (13 October 2008)

sammy84 said:


> I for one believe we will be seeing a rally this week. Everything that happened last week pointed towards a bottom;
> 1. There were record trade volumes traded in the US.
> 2. There was raw unadulterated fear that swept every market and lead to record losses.
> 3. Market volatility was at an all time high
> ...





The most important points you didnt mention which is the numbers for US GDP and Unemployment Rate.  An lower GDP and higher unemployment rate and your rally will be just another dream.


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## Glen48 (13 October 2008)

Given it took 27 yrs for the market to get back to 1930 levels a 6 yrs after 1987 IF we do have a rally will it be a repeat or up a few  % a day?
I reckons this one is Rudd backing the banks and down again Tuesday. Pity LNC didn't open today.


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## MRC & Co (13 October 2008)

Glen48 said:


> Given it took 27 yrs for the market to get back to 1930 levels a 6 yrs after 1987 IF we do have a rally will it be a repeat or up a few  % a day?
> I reckons this one is Rudd backing the banks and down again Tuesday. Pity LNC didn't open today.




Given it took the Nikkei 20 years to get from 40,000 index points to 8,000, oh hang on


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## SM Junkie (13 October 2008)

I think I'll just be happy to see the market steady for a few days without any dramatic moves either way.  If it goes up fast it will go down fast.

Bit of a side issue, but I think it is an interesting time for the Rudd government, this crisis may make or break his career. If we get through this without a recession, he'll been promoted as our great saviour.  Alternatively if he fails, then he'll probably be fall guy who didn't have enough experience.


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## Julia (13 October 2008)

SM Junkie said:


> I
> Bit of a side issue, but I think it is an interesting time for the Rudd government, this crisis may make or break his career. If we get through this without a recession, he'll been promoted as our great saviour.  Alternatively if he fails, then he'll probably be fall guy who didn't have enough experience.



Yes, I agree with this.   I've been critical of him and Swan but feel they have both performed well through this really challenging time.

I'm less impressed with Malcolm Turnbull apparently being unable to resist playing politics.  If ever there was a time for a purely bipartisan approach, this is it.


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## sammy84 (13 October 2008)

So we had our rally, now the next question is how long do people see this one lasting for? 
The following has got me optimistic for a week long rally;
Dow futures are the highest they have been in a very long time
LIBOR has finally started to go downward- a little bit of confidence goes a long way
Gordon Brown is being hailed as the savior of capital markets.
A whole heap of analysts predicting the bottom seem were vocal today.

Or is this just unbridled optimism?


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## Snakey (13 October 2008)

I'm ready... I'm loaded to the eye balls with cfd's. to maximize my exposure.
Bought on Friday anticipating USA to bottom Friday night.  
This is the bounce we've been waiting for IMO.
Dont miss the biggest trade of the year


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## skyQuake (13 October 2008)

Best trades of the year may have already passed, some REALLY good shorts there


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## tech/a (14 October 2008)

This has got 3 possibly 4 days in it.


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## agro (14 October 2008)

agro said:


> if this is the bear, people are selling on panic
> 
> imagine the bull, +700 in a day etc..
> 
> everyone ready for the next bull run?




well i was close, try +900


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## prawn_86 (14 October 2008)

One more bank failure and this will just turn into another bull trap.

Or once that $700 bill comes into the US system im thinking that will cause some concern/uncertainty


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## Speewha (14 October 2008)

Hello,

Yes all primed ready to go, but nip and tuck for me. In and out, can't see that we are out of the woods yet. No such thing as long term anymore for this little black duck. 

Good luck all. 

Hope by the end of the week we will all be less hamstrung with shorting on the ASX due to return. 


Regards


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## Sean K (14 October 2008)

prawn_86 said:


> One more bank failure and this will just turn into another bull trap.



I'm wondering how many more bank failures are already factored in?


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## Prospector (14 October 2008)

To put the current rally into some kind of perspective, last night on the ABC Marc Faber (Boom Doom and Gloom) said that prior to the depression of the 29/30's, the market fell a few months before, recovered by 50%, then fell 85%virtually overnight


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## Schmuckie (14 October 2008)

Perhaps we rally half the September/October losses after a volatile week or two, and then basically plateau with very, very small gains until all losses are covered after the coming recession ends.  My guess is that Australia and Canada will both weather the recession storms a bit better (i.e., a milder recession, but still a recession) than the U.S. and Europe.  This is not going to be a fast V-shaped stock recovery, but if the right policies are in place and there's a coordinated international effort, we won't have anything anywhere near the Dirty '30s either.

(As an aside, Fed Chair Ben Bernanke, a student of the Great Depression, and Hank Paulson just learned with 20/20 handsight that you can't let any big investment bank fail: another one for the textbooks.)


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## Schmuckie (14 October 2008)

kennas said:


> I'm wondering how many more bank failures are already factored in?




I think more bank failures are already factored in, but they'll be the smaller, regional banks who's deposit-taking businesses can be bought out by the survivors.  With almost universal deposit insurance, deposit holders under the limits won't be affected.


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## JellySausage (14 October 2008)

http://news.yahoo.com/s/ap/20081013/ap_on_bi_st_ma_re/wall_street

Manic Monday: Dow roars back from worst week ever 



> NEW YORK - Wall Street stormed back after its worst week ever and staged the biggest single-day stock rally since the Great Depression on Monday, catapulting the Dow Jones industrials to a 936-point gain and finally offering relief from eight consecutive days of stock market carnage.


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## Temjin (14 October 2008)

Well, even back in the great depression era, the longest bear market rally lasted a few months. So I am not surprised if we see a sustained rally for a few weeks or so.


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## tech/a (14 October 2008)

Pretty muted "Rally"

Nothing to get excited about.
Wouldnt be suprised to see the DOW down very soon.


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## Wysiwyg (14 October 2008)

tech/a said:


> Pretty muted "Rally"
> 
> Nothing to get excited about.
> Wouldnt be suprised to see the DOW down very soon.




I wonder why the DOW took off and our market has wimped out?Usually some rough correlation between the two.


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## Ageo (14 October 2008)

Temjin said:


> Well, even back in the great depression era, the longest bear market rally lasted a few months. So I am not surprised if we see a sustained rally for a few weeks or so.




That might be correct but dont forget how long it took before they saw the previous peaks (about 20yrs i believe), but today's society is inflated with so much credit that i wouldnt be suprised if it was shorter (with a worser crash)


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## Nyden (14 October 2008)

tech/a said:


> Pretty muted "Rally"
> 
> Nothing to get excited about.
> Wouldnt be suprised to see the DOW down very soon.




Agreed. In all honesty I'm thinking a heavy pullback tonight on the DOW ... 11%, utterly smacks of panic buying, not bargain hunting.


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## sammy84 (14 October 2008)

Futures are looking good and with more details of the bank buyout tonight I don't see anything stopping the current rally in the US. I see us having another day of rallying, given that there was a bit of cashing in of profits today and those will seek to re-enter the market tomorrow


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## Temjin (14 October 2008)

Ageo said:


> That might be correct but dont forget how long it took before they saw the previous peaks (about 20yrs i believe), but today's society is inflated with so much credit that i wouldnt be suprised if it was shorter (with a worser crash)




That's exactly right.  Just didn't mention it. 

What I was merely saying is that there is always a rally in a bear market and they have lasted months at time before crashing all over again. Who knows how long this will last, or will it even last a few days. heh


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## tech/a (14 October 2008)

Dow futures were +230 at lunch---now +42

Markets hate massive volume and range.


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## Porper (14 October 2008)

tech/a said:


> Markets hate massive volume and range.




Maybe I am wrong but I wouldn't be going long, especially holding overnight.

This volatility hasn't finished and it is just guessing as to what the DOW will do day to day.

We could easily see a drop of 10% again one day soon when we wake up.

It is easier looking at a longer time frame, I have convinced myself we aint seen the bottom yet.


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## tech/a (15 October 2008)

About as expected Pete.

I used my get out of jail card yesterday.


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## tcoates (15 October 2008)

Call me crazy (but as I am not a day trade) there are at least 2 conditions I am looking for...

1. "rally" (for lack of a better word) to be sustained over period of 4-7 days.

(for the market to go up only 1 or 2 days does not make a rally or new trend)

2. see some form of higher low.

Til then its all down hill.

Tim


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## tech/a (15 October 2008)

tcoates said:


> Call me crazy (but as I am not a day trade) there are at least 2 conditions I am looking for...
> 
> 1. "rally" (for lack of a better word) to be sustained over period of 4-7 days.
> 
> ...




Tim 

Id add 2 more.
A stabilization of volatility 
Some consolidation


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## doctorj (15 October 2008)

tech/a said:


> A stabilization of volatility



Does that make sense?


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## tech/a (15 October 2008)

doctorj said:


> Does that make sense?




Probably not but I know what I mean!


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## Porper (15 October 2008)

tech/a said:


> About as expected Pete.
> 
> I used my get out of jail card yesterday.




Sure is John, although I didn't expect the 10% rally.

Talking Elliot, the count is still looking spot on.I am not going to trade this bounce until my analysis is incorrect.

I am aiming at trading the next big leg down.


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## MRC & Co (15 October 2008)

Higher low forming perhaps?  Hmmmmmm, I thought today would try and close the gap, guess not.  

I still get the 'feel' a rally is coming.  Too much bearish sentiment out there.  Not sure who is left to sell this junk.


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## Aussiejeff (16 October 2008)

MRC & Co said:


> Higher low forming perhaps?  Hmmmmmm, I thought today would try and close the gap, guess not.
> 
> I still get the 'feel' a rally is coming.  Too much bearish sentiment out there.  *Not sure who is left to sell this junk.*




Plenty of junk for sale overnight.... anyone care to buy??? :flush:


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## CAB SAV (16 October 2008)

US CPI Sept due tonight with Industrial Production Sept.
Tomorrow night, US Building permits Sept & Housing Starts
Rally?


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## Ruincity (16 October 2008)

CAB SAV said:


> US CPI Sept due tonight with Industrial Production Sept.
> Tomorrow night, US Building permits Sept & Housing Starts
> Rally?




I'll be looking at buying at the bottom of what looks prepared to be a down day.. 
I get the impression you feel that this will be compounded tomorrow?

Hmmm when to get involved... 
Thoughts?


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## prawn_86 (16 October 2008)

prawn_86 said:


> One more bank failure and this will just turn into another bull trap.
> 
> Or once that $700 bill comes into the US system im thinking that will cause some concern/uncertainty




Well didnt need a bank failure for a bull trap to happen.

Any new members, please be wary in these market conditions. One up day does not constitute a new trend. Preserve capital...


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## CAB SAV (16 October 2008)

Ruincity said:


> I'll be looking at buying at the bottom of what looks prepared to be a down day..
> I get the impression you feel that this will be compounded tomorrow?
> 
> Hmmm when to get involved...
> Thoughts?




The way US data has been manipulated lately, I wouldn't bet any money on which way they will go,  in no hurry atm but to assume because of a big one day fall that market will go up tomorrow is not guaranteed. Lot of us are looking at sub 7500 for dow & sub 3500 axo. Doesn't that indicate what you buy tomorrow will be a lot cheaper for me later?(if we are right of course)


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## Aussiejeff (16 October 2008)

Hey! Maybe this inspirational news could inspire a rally?

*"BRITNEY Spears' new single Womanizer made a record-breaking leap to top spot on Billboard's Hot 100 singles chart overnight, underscoring her musical comeback after making headlines with her personal woes". *

:hide:

[size=-2]Sorry. I took a Mega Irony pill this morning.[/size]


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## Seneca60BC (16 October 2008)

Seneca60BC said:


> The most important points you didnt mention which is the numbers for US GDP and Unemployment Rate.  An lower GDP and higher unemployment rate and your rally will be just another dream.




sorry to wake you up - but your dream of a rally this week is over LOL


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## MRC & Co (16 October 2008)

Aussiejeff said:


> Plenty of junk for sale overnight.... anyone care to buy??? :flush:




lol.  True, for the moment, very bearish.  But one night is one night.


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## LM (16 October 2008)

prawn_86 said:


> Any new members, please be wary in these market conditions. One up day does not constitute a new trend. Preserve capital...




Quite so. Comment equally applicable to all traders. I cringe everytime I hear "this is the bottom" and am waiting for all such comments to disappear from forums before I am long again - downtrend.


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## Naked shorts (16 October 2008)

imo chance of a big rally tomorrow = no

Im looking at monday for a possible rally, however i wont be placing any long, medium term trades


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## Muschu (16 October 2008)

tech/a said:


> This has got 3 possibly 4 days in it.




This actually turned out to be pretty accurate in that it certainly was a very brief rally.  
Is there any common understanding here as to what constitutes a rally?  Does 1-2-3 days suffice?  Have we had a "real" rally?
What anticipation is there of a further [or actual] rally? When might it occur? How sustained might it be?  To what extent will the all ords go up if it is anticipated to go up at all?
I have no idea as to the answers to these questions and maybe they are unreasonable questions to even ask.
However I thought some of the experienced chartists out there might like to share their opinions.  Some I have read recently have been very helpful.
With thanks
Rick


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## tech/a (16 October 2008)

Personally Id call it volatility.
Hardly a blimp on the radar,you could call it Noise in the big picture.
Nothing really has changed.
Infact wave counts havent altered from the October Low meaning they are still within the wave made then.
There is a chart above which shows that when the wave 4 of 5 waves within the Weekly chart of the ORDS takes place I expect it to move toward 5000.

However at the moment there is no real sign that the wave 3 is complete.
If the low holds(3939) and we get trading above 4403 then this maybe possible (The scenario above).
A break below the low of 3939 will see some alteration to the analysis.
Next stop 3400 ish which is around 50% retracement of the main trend.
This was seen (50%) in 1929 and 1987 so highly probable.


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## tech/a (17 October 2008)

Looks like the low will hold.
This now brings the longer term rally into a real possibility.
Analysis will be proven incorrect if the low is taken out.(At any time in the near future).


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## Speewha (17 October 2008)

Hello


Oh well the yoyo market could be moving up the string today, extreme caution needed no significant overnight holds for me 

Regards


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## Aussiejeff (17 October 2008)

Speewha said:


> Hello
> 
> 
> Oh well the yoyo market could be moving up the string today, extreme caution needed no significant overnight holds for me
> ...




Same-o.

Metinks this is perfect timing again for a Yank-induced ASX "sucker-rally" heading into the weekend. Best of luck to those who intend to buy and hold! No Ozzie shorts makes it a dodgy wheeze.


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## doogie_goes_off (17 October 2008)

Sebastian Loeb? Marcus Gronholm? Neal Bates? Colin McCrae?

I reckon we're in for a resources led -4% blitz based on metal prices going -6% and similar. A few astute commentators in Australia think we have further to fall because of the R word in the US.

For us to recover and get people out of their savings accounts we need another 0.5-1% RATE CUT.

Or you could buy bullion??? what else is left to do except sit on good fundamental stocks and wait for the ski jump to turn up at the end of the slide!


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## Aussiejeff (17 October 2008)

doogie_goes_off said:


> Sebastian Loeb? Marcus Gronholm? Neal Bates? Colin McCrae?
> 
> I reckon we're in for a resources led -4% blitz based on metal prices going -6% and similar. A few astute commentators in Australia think we have further to fall because of the R word in the US.
> 
> ...




NOOO! I DON'T WANT TO LEAVE THE RELATIVE SAFETY OF MY BELOVED SAVINGS ACCOUNT!!! Bugger more interest rate cuts. If they go down another 1-2% I may as well shove me dwindling capital under the mattress. 

See.

There are two sides to this grubby coin.


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## Aussiest (17 October 2008)

If you notice after every rally, the All Ords is still travelling steadily downwards. Sure, a small rally here and there, but a recovery? I don't think so. I think there will be another leg down, and then we'll have seen the bottom.


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## Sunder (17 October 2008)

Aussiest said:


> If you notice after every rally, the All Ords is still travelling steadily downwards. Sure, a small rally here and there, but a recovery? I don't think so. I think there will be another leg down, and then we'll have seen the bottom.




I had to change underpants this morning, when I saw the futures up 206 points. I have a fairly large short open. I'm expecting a leg down towards the mid 3000s, but only 70% confident of it. But I remembered this past behavior, and said to myself, no matter how much it opens up, don't close out the short before the late afternoon, because it probably will pull back.

I think this indicates that people are grasping at good news, but the weight of downside is not allowing these rallies to succeed into full blown recoveries.


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## chops_a_must (18 October 2008)

I'm starting to feel mighty bullish.


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## Snakey (18 October 2008)

chops_a_must said:


> I'm starting to feel mighty bullish.




yes chops ..me to.. last friday(first bottom) loaded up with cfds in stock asx and this friday(second bottom) tripling the amount to have my entire capital in cfds (to maximize the exposure)and a couple specs left over for saftey net. 
  Its time for bears to go back to there cave and the bulls to graze on the very green pasture. Im of to Eygpt today to met a beautiful Russian girl and i hope to come back much better of. Even warren buffet is bullish. Just shows great minds think alike. Let the bull run begin...Im excited and Im READY FOR A RALLY

:bananasmi:guitar::band:

 :bier:


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## Sean K (18 October 2008)

Snakey said:


> yes chops ..me to.. last friday(first bottom) loaded up with cfds in stock asx and this friday(second bottom) tripling the amount to have my entire capital in cfds (to maximize the exposure)and a couple specs left over for saftey net.
> 
> Its time for bears to go back to there cave and the bulls to graze on the very green pasture. *Im of to Eygpt today to met a beautiful Russian girl and i hope to come back much better of. *Even warren buffet is bullish. Just shows great minds think alike. Let the bull run begin...Im excited and Im READY FOR A RALLY
> 
> :bier:





Crikey snakey! Have fun!

Hopefully, the market doesn't break down through the previous bottom and make it's way to the 3400 ish mark while you're looking after your mental health in Egypt.

Post photos!


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## Aussiejeff (18 October 2008)

Snakey said:


> yes chops ..me to.. last friday(first bottom) loaded up with cfds in stock asx and this friday(second bottom) tripling the amount to have my entire capital in cfds (to maximize the exposure)and a couple specs left over for saftey net.
> Its time for bears to go back to there cave and the bulls to graze on the very green pasture. Im of to Eygpt today to met a beautiful Russian girl and i hope to come back much better of. Even warren buffet is bullish. Just shows great minds think alike. Let the bull run begin...Im excited and Im READY FOR A RALLY
> 
> :band:
> ...




Wow! The Bears are GONE! Snakey scared 'em off!

Hooray for Snakey! Snakey for PM!!!

Snakey for World Leader!!!! 


*pfft* oh ..... it was just a dream.......


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## Logique (18 October 2008)

Hi Snakey. Its refreshing to see some positivity and optimism on this board. 

Good to see that the US market closed up over the week. Warren Buffett is saying he is moving his personal portfolio back into US stocks. Although he thinks there is more to do yet, in turning the US economy around, he all the same believes that US equities are now attractively priced.

The rescue packages around the world just need some time to kick in and gradually restore liquidity and confidence.

It's been a slow news cycle in October, so the media frenzy has repeated doom and gloom, hour after hour, day after day. There just has to be a lot of fear in a lot of share prices. I think Buffet realizes this.


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## Indie (18 October 2008)

Have they lifted the ban on short selling yet? I'm ready to short the sh*t out of this market. I'm very optimistic and excited about shorting this market.


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## J.B.Nimble (18 October 2008)

Indie said:


> Have they lifted the ban on short selling yet? I'm ready to short the sh*t out of this market. I'm very optimistic and excited about shorting this market.




Long or short, this volatility is not for the feint hearted - a wrong bet is very easy here...


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## skyQuake (18 October 2008)

Indie said:


> Have they lifted the ban on short selling yet? I'm ready to short the sh*t out of this market. I'm very optimistic and excited about shorting this market.




Think the ban's still in place in Australia. Even if its not, hold your horses mate, there's gonna be one huge covering rally on monday


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## Muschu (18 October 2008)

skyQuake said:


> ......Even if its not, hold your horses mate, there's gonna be one huge covering rally on monday




Can I show my ignorance and ask what a "huge covering rally" will do to the all ords?


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## MRC & Co (18 October 2008)

Muschu said:


> Can I show my ignorance and ask what a "huge covering rally" will do to the all ords?




Bounce.  

People buying to 'cover' their shorts, so they then move back to a neutral market position.


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## Muschu (18 October 2008)

MRC & Co said:


> Bounce.
> 
> People buying to 'cover' their shorts, so they then move back to a neutral market position.




So this will lead to a "huge covering rally on Monday"?  Does anyone else know?  I will watch with great interest.


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## MRC & Co (18 October 2008)

Muschu said:


> So this will lead to a "huge covering rally on Monday"?  Does anyone else know?  I will watch with great interest.




lol, that is skyquakes opinion.  I wouldn't have the slightest clue.  Hope his right though.  He seems to have a knack for picking swing changes!


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## skyQuake (18 October 2008)

MRC & Co said:


> lol, that is skyquakes opinion.  I wouldn't have the slightest clue.  Hope his right though.  He seems to have a knack for picking swing changes!




Coin landed on heads. Twice. Need i say more? :


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## jonojpsg (18 October 2008)

J.B.Nimble said:


> Long or short, this volatility is not for the feint hearted - a wrong bet is very easy here...




No ****!  I played around with Dow CFDs last night just for fun and played the ups and downs on very short term trades.  Got sick of it though and left a short in at 8854 thinking that it would end down for sure, and being so confident I didn't post a stop  When I checked tonight, sure enough it closed at 8766 (PHEW)

WAIT FOR IT THOUGH - when I checked the chart, the bloody thing had peaked at 9300!!!!!!!! then blasted its way back down a tidy 600 points.  Mate I wish I'd stayed up to play all night.


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## Muschu (19 October 2008)

skyQuake said:


> Coin landed on heads. Twice. Need i say more? :




Really need to know here.  Were they consecutive throws?


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## Wysiwyg (19 October 2008)

> Long or short, this volatility is not for the feint hearted - a wrong bet is very easy here...




I find it difficult mid trend to get it right.Two open ends much harder than one open end.

Oh, and the `game` managed to take me out of play very accurately once again.


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## MRC & Co (19 October 2008)

jonojpsg said:


> No ****!  I played around with Dow CFDs last night just for fun and played the ups and downs on very short term trades.  Got sick of it though and left a short in at 8854 thinking that it would end down for sure, and being so confident I didn't post a stop  When I checked tonight, sure enough it closed at 8766 (PHEW)
> 
> WAIT FOR IT THOUGH - when I checked the chart, the bloody thing had peaked at 9300!!!!!!!! then blasted its way back down a tidy 600 points.  Mate I wish I'd stayed up to play all night.




Sounds like gambling.  What were you going to do on the way to 9300, average down?  Or keep your short bias and have stops hit on the way up there?  Leaving the screen with no stop and letting it go 500 ticks offside is not excactly good trading.


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## tech/a (19 October 2008)

Whats the margin on CFD index trades these days?


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## skyQuake (19 October 2008)

tech/a said:


> Whats the margin on CFD index trades these days?




IG Markets:
SPI - $5000 (used to be $1750 lol)
FTSE - $5000
S&P (big contract) - $20,500

Looks like a too many people had margin calls that worried the bucket shops


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## tech/a (19 October 2008)

Interesting relative to the above 600 point swing.


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## jonojpsg (20 October 2008)

MRC & Co said:


> Sounds like gambling.  What were you going to do on the way to 9300, average down?  Or keep your short bias and have stops hit on the way up there?  Leaving the screen with no stop and letting it go 500 ticks offside is not excactly good trading.




YOu're probably right there MRC!  No, if I'd stayed on, I would have closed out my short when it went through 8900 and opened a long.  Having looked back over it, there were some clear trades all the way up to 9300, then once it turned, a clear short trade all the way down.

I totally agree that a 500 point run against me with no stop was pretty stupid, but I was basing my decision on where I thought the market was going to close, not where it was going in the mean time.  With the DOW trading the way it has been, the intraday swings are simply crazy and make a mockery of any reasonable stops one might put in place.


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## Aussiejeff (23 October 2008)

The way things are shaping up, a mass rally of unemployed stockbrokers outside the ASX might be on the cards soon enough...


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## CAB SAV (23 October 2008)

Aussiejeff said:


> The way things are shaping up, a mass rally of unemployed stockbrokers outside the ASX might be on the cards soon enough...




If they were any good, wouldn't they be rich, retiring, or trading at home?
Maybe they are like life reps, sorry, financial planners, do nothing.


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## Prospector (23 October 2008)

Unless they have plunged in with their own money the stockbrokers should be rich from all the commissions from sell trades


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## Ageo (23 October 2008)

CAB SAV said:


> If they were any good, wouldn't they be rich, retiring, or trading at home?
> Maybe they are like life reps, sorry, financial planners, do nothing.




Isnt that why they are called brokers? because they`re broke?


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## sammy84 (2 November 2008)

Will we see a good rally this week?

Things are looking good at the moment;

Last Fridays positive close on the ASX was the first positive Friday all month, dito for the US market (has the confidence returned to hold over the weekend again?).
Last friday was also the first friday all month that the ASX closed above 4000.
The dow jones close on friday was was 1.55% compared to our .4%, and the US gained 11.3% last week and only gained 4%, we have a bit of catching up to do.
A few positive days lined up together- more confidence. 
Interest rate decision on tues, and a probable Obama victory on tues.

Not even going to bother the with the B word as that burnt me a few weeks ago, but I'm pricing in for a nice rally


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## Schmuckie (3 November 2008)

The _Wall Street Journal_ has published a couple of articles on U.S. mortgage work-outs.  If they're successful, everyone should benefit, especially consumer and business confidence:

http://online.wsj.com/article/SB122549543952589677.html 

http://online.wsj.com/article/SB122549543952589677.html 

The fact that the banks are working with defaulting home owners on a voluntary basis (although they were probably leaned on a bit by the U.S. government) shows a determination to fix the problem.  Maybe the recession will be a little bit milder than expected.


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## Aussiejeff (3 November 2008)

Schmuckie said:


> The _Wall Street Journal_ has published a couple of articles on U.S. mortgage work-outs.  If they're successful, everyone should benefit, especially consumer and business confidence:
> 
> http://online.wsj.com/article/SB122549543952589677.html
> 
> ...




Maybe.

That depends an awful lot on what the rest of the world decides to do. Near Total Globalisation and significant dependence by the US on the products, services and US debt buyouts by other nations means poor ol' Unca Sam can't now consider the health or otherwise of it's economy in isolation from the rest of the rabble. Well, it could TRY I suppose.

But at it's peril.

IMO


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## J.B.Nimble (6 November 2008)

The market is still extremely volatile but it is very noticeable that there are many more active company threads now than a month ago. For a while we were lucky to see more than a handful of companies discussed in any given day. Now there seems to be much more interest - even with a good deal of caution being expressed, the interest has to be healthy...


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## trishaltbr (6 November 2008)

Aussiejeff said:


> Shirley it carn't get any werse? *hic*



lol me either


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## sinner (6 November 2008)

Of the 8 stocks monitored on the "sinner oil index" (a very serious and thorough index indeed  ) , pick the odd one out. Today was like a see-saw for me, whatever I lost on one side came back on the other.


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## Out Too Soon (14 November 2008)

Ageo said:


> Isnt that why they are called brokers? because they`re broke?




lol  Hehe! that's a good one. 

Yes I'm ready for a rally & in the mean time I'm enjoying the volatility. :


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## Aussiejeff (15 November 2008)

Out Too Soon said:


> lol  Hehe! that's a good one.
> 
> *Yes I'm ready for a rally* & in the mean time I'm enjoying the volatility. :




Don't hold your breath for the "rally". Unless it's the inevitable "rally" by masses of soon-to-be unemployed bank and mining sector personnel 

The ASX will tank something chronic on Monday after a precipitous 400pt plunge in the last hour of trade in Wall St overnight.

Friday's "false" kick up in the ASX indexes (helped by more over-the-top-optimism in the media) was a pure "sucker dead cat bounce" for sure. I hope not too many ASF punters ... errr "investors" got their fingers burnt buying on a Friday arvo - again. This pattern of the US up on Thu causing an ASX rally into Fri close only to see DOW subsequently tank overnight seems oh, so predictable of late.

Cest la vie.

Meanwhile, I'm heading back to the cave .....

*zzzzz..zzz.zzzzzzzz*


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## cutz (15 November 2008)

Hi All,

Any activity that’s going on now is a transfer of assets from the desperate to the cashed up long term value investor, I’m sure that there’s a few around and the buying may be happening in stages i.e. so not to push the market up too high, there seems to be a pattern of consolidation happening at the moment on the XJO.

Another interesting observation is that implied volatility is peaking out again which in the recent past has happened just before a rally, with a then corresponding falling of volatility and a fizzling out of the rally, this pattern has been obvious in sep,oct and this half of nov.

Just  worth from an eternal optimist. (Which has been to my detriment on occasion)


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## mazzatelli1000 (15 November 2008)

cutz said:


> Hi All,
> 
> Any activity that’s going on now is a transfer of assets from the desperate to the cashed up long term value investor, I’m sure that there’s a few around and the buying may be happening in stages i.e. so not to push the market up too high, there seems to be a pattern of consolidation happening at the moment on the XJO.




Perhaps tech/a or Radge can give us some insight about smart money's activity in this consolidation period


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## cutz (15 November 2008)

cutz said:


> Hi All,
> 
> Any activity that’s going on now is a transfer of assets from the desperate to the cashed up long term value investor, I’m sure that there’s a few around and the buying may be happening in stages i.e. so not to push the market up too high, there seems to be a pattern of consolidation happening at the moment on the XJO.
> 
> ...




Sorry, before my comment is taken out of contexts, am pretty much commenting on the buy and hold set as opposed to short term trading. So perhaps I shouldn’t have said "Any activity" but "Some activity".


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## nunthewiser (15 November 2008)

cutz said:


> Sorry, before my comment is taken out of contexts, am pretty much commenting on the buy and hold set as opposed to short term trading. So perhaps I shouldn’t have said "Any activity" but "Some activity".




If it helps i have been adding to MTS EXT  on the buy and hold mentality BUT only been adding on the worse days i can find .. these ARE investments and happy to add to them when the climate suits

i also hold TRY as an investment but sitting on a loss and will add to them when and if the tide turns


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## sinner (15 November 2008)

Did anyone notice just after the late-in-the-week rally, divergence beginning between US market indices and Asian/European ones? The US indices dropping heavily while most (although not all) European and Asian indices holding some of the gains and remaining in the green?


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## skyQuake (15 November 2008)

I expect a strong rally from open monday  
Assuming funds finished their dumping on friday; Mon will see bargain hunting thru the day (ie bottom pickers). And probably a futures induced rally.
Commodities didnt do too bad on fri and a few banks are at major support levels.


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## nunthewiser (15 November 2008)

skyQuake said:


> Commodities didnt do too bad on fri and a few banks are at major support levels.




and a few have broken them too ....... ANZ for one CBA another

but yeah maybe a bounce due but with the yanks gettin sold off fri night i kinda expecting more to fall personally


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## skyQuake (15 November 2008)

nunthewiser said:


> and a few have broken them too ....... ANZ for one CBA another
> 
> but yeah maybe a bounce due but with the yanks gettin sold off fri night i kinda expecting more to fall personally




False break : 
We'll get a squeeze before she goes downnnnnnn
By no means expecting anything more than a bear trap rally.


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## cbacamden (17 November 2008)

I recon we are getting close - maybe a mth or so to go now

Personally Id like to see it fall another 8-15% over the next few weeks and then up up and away.


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## nunthewiser (17 November 2008)

waves to skyquake :


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## sniperdog (17 November 2008)

I think the bear trap rally was last Friday imho. I can feel a rally coming on.


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## Naked shorts (17 November 2008)

I doubt there will be one soon. 

Eurozone officially in a recession
http://www.abc.net.au/news/stories/2008/11/15/2420576.htm

Japan has also just declared its in a recession
http://www.abc.net.au/news/stories/2008/11/17/2422037.htm

how long till its official here?


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