# Beginner - how do you like my first stock picks?



## AdamVW (1 April 2013)

Hi all

well, I might be 55 years old but finally decided to have a little play in the mysterious world of the stockmarket.

I have chosen the following stocks which I think will do ok with some reasonable growth expected over the next 12 months:

AGK
BRG
MTU
SAR


Your comments on my choices would be most appreciated.


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## buffet (1 April 2013)

AdamVW said:


> Hi all
> 
> well, I might be 55 years old but finally decided to have a little play in the mysterious world of the stockmarket.
> 
> ...




Well done Adam check out CCV cheers


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## So_Cynical (1 April 2013)

AdamVW said:


> Hi all
> 
> well, I might be 55 years old but finally decided to have a little play in the mysterious world of the stockmarket.
> 
> ...




Selection fine, timing and thus SP seems to be somewhat irrelevant...you mite get away with it.

Good luck


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## galumay (1 April 2013)

None of them feature on my list of stocks, but that means bugger all!!

SAR does seem at odds with the other 3, a small speculative mining stock. 

What is your strategy? Are you planning to invest for the long term or something else? 

What is your system for selecting stocks?


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## AdamVW (1 April 2013)

galumay said:


> SAR does seem at odds with the other 3, a small speculative mining stock.
> 
> What is your strategy? Are you planning to invest for the long term or something else?
> 
> What is your system for selecting stocks?




Thanks Galumay,

SAR was recommended by Fat Prophets and it seems that as it has completed purchasing operating equipment etc, it may be in a position to make some gains and also, it on a site that has some good gold deposits.  Therefore, it may do well in respect to gold.

The others, BRG is over a rough patch due to an issue in Canada and we in fact own by choice a number of Breville appliances because they are very good.

MTU was also recommended and with its recent acquisitions of companies including DODO (we are a customer) it seems like a worthwhile communications group to get into.

AGK I noticed as a good pick by several strategists so to round out a diversified portfolio I decided to buy a few.

I intend to watch them closely over the next 12 months and see how they go.  Of course being new to the game I don't expect to make my fortune just yet but I think they are stocks that will allow me some confidence moving forward.

Not a particular strong strategy, more of a learning tool.


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## AdamVW (1 April 2013)

buffet said:


> Well done Adam check out CCV cheers





Thanks Buffet, will do


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## burglar (1 April 2013)

Fat Prophets?

I know who makes them fat!


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## AdamVW (1 April 2013)

So_Cynical said:


> Selection fine, timing and thus SP seems to be somewhat irrelevant...you mite get away with it.
> 
> Good luck




Thanks So_Cynical, excuse my ignorance but what is SP?


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## burglar (1 April 2013)

AdamVW said:


> Thanks So_Cynical, excuse my ignorance but what is SP?




SP = share price.
POG = price of gold.

You're excused!!


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## AdamVW (1 April 2013)

buffet said:


> Well done Adam check out CCV cheers




Yes I see what you mean Buffet!  Awesome stuff....I wonder where it is going?  Will check out the trade opening tomorrow


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## AdamVW (1 April 2013)

burglar said:


> SP = share price.
> POG = price of gold.
> 
> You're excused!!




F.A.B. Burglar!

(courtesy of Thunderbirds and no, I have no idea what FAB means!) LOL


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## burglar (1 April 2013)

Gotta love wiki!
"a modified Ford Thunderbird was used as FAB1 due to BMW, owners of the Rolls-Royce marque, refusing to give permission for its use in the film"


http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Thunderbirds_(TV_series)




Konami FAB1


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## buffet (2 April 2013)

The sun even shines  on a dog some days
I think its got a lot left in it


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## burglar (2 April 2013)

AdamVW said:


> ... I have chosen the following stocks which I think will do ok with some reasonable growth expected over the next 12 months: ...




Having chosen, will you paper trade, or put skin in the game.

Reason I ask, I believe we are in for a correction:

http://finance.yahoo.com/echarts?s=%5EAORD+Interactive#symbol=^aord;range=1d;compare=;indicator=volume;charttype=area;crosshair=on;ohlcvalues=0;logscale=off;source=undefined;



Disclosure: This is the second time I have called the top!:


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## InCasinoOut (3 April 2013)

hi Burglar, I'm also a beginner, 30yo, making my first $ purchase this month, after having done a lot of reading up. I have a paper portfolio set up in google finance with the likes of MTU, SEK, FGE etc etc. 

People keep saying there may be a correction. The problem is if i hold off due too this i may be left in a year with no shares and the correction may never come. So i will probably invest annyway. When do you expect this correction to occur? I'll be buying 1 company per month as the funds come to me.


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## burglar (3 April 2013)

InCasinoOut said:


> ... When do you expect this correction to occur? ...



Hi InCasinoOut,
Welcome to ASF.

I am guessing for my own benefit.  But if I tell you, I will need to be close to the mark.

The US is still the strongest economy in the world.
End of May, the debt ceiling problem in the US will come to a head.
They will not solve this problem with austerity measures alone, so the compromise will:
A.) Raise the ceiling.
B.) Raise cost cutting measures.
But I believe the measures will not solve the crisis, just let it bounce around until the next time around.

No strong numbers coming out of China.

BRIC countries not taking up the slack.

EU problems not over, Cyprus was an interesting diversion.

Aussie Banks are running out of steam.

Aussie resource stocks are already putting the brakes on the All Ords.

To top it all off - we nearly always have a correction towards 30 June.

Not saying don't do it - but I am saying be careful!! Just my opinion, mind!


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## InCasinoOut (3 April 2013)

I see what you are saying, a lot for me to research there. It would be good for me if it happens, as most of my investable funds arrive from the tax man in July. Maybe by then this will have happened and i can buy when the market is hammered way down. 

I might still purchase what i think are some bargains in the next few months anyway.


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## Julia (3 April 2013)

InCasinoOut said:


> I might still purchase what i think are some bargains in the next few months anyway.



No obligation on you to respond, of course, but how do you determine what is a  'bargain'?


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## Klogg (3 April 2013)

InCasinoOut said:


> The problem is if i hold off due too this i may be left in a year with no shares and the correction may never come..




And what's the problem with this? If you're not finding anything worth buying (i.e. a 'bargain'), then why buy anything at all?

Funnily enough, I was just re-reading Security Analysis (specifically the Fixed Interest Securities section). And upon reading your post, I was reminded of a passage within one of the earlier chapters of this section:



> It appears to be a financial axiom that whenever there is money to invest, it is invested; and if the owner cannot find a good security yielding a fair return, he will invariably buy a poor one.* But a prudent and intelligent investor should be able to avoid this temptation...*




In other words - if you can't find an investment with a margin of safety, a 'bargain', or whatever other name you want to give it - wait.

But, by that same logic, if the market doesn't have any sort of pull-back but you find something worth buying (after the proper research, advice, etc.), then buy it.

Of course, you could just ignore my point of view - completely up to you.


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## InCasinoOut (4 April 2013)

@julia - Sure, i will be investing in some companies i have calculated to be well below their intrinsic value. And that i believe have a good future prospects. Hopefully even if there is a dip in the market they will outperform other companies. But perhaps if i could buy in a dip my profits would be better. I havent started studying technical analysis yet but am reading currently. So i'm using the best methods i have to hand so at present. I wont list my full list yet, but maybe when i have purchased i can list them in the newbie area so people can see how they fare over the years? Might be a good laugh for some. 

@klogg - I remember the quote from the book. It may serve me well to remember. I may be a little keen too get going. But the companies i have found look like a good investment to me right now. Might have to excercise some patience though.

@op/buffett - i like MTU from the list.


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## AdamVW (5 April 2013)

burglar said:


> Having chosen, will you paper trade, or put skin in the game.
> 
> Reason I ask, I believe we are in for a correction:
> 
> ...




Hi Burglar,

sorry about the delay replying. I am in the middle of renovating my kitchen so trivialites like the stock market and North Korea have been on the backburner a little.

However, yes the correction, well last I heard it may be less than expected after a good day in New York so hopefully I won't loose as much as I could. I am down about 10% overall since I bought the shares a couple of weeks ago.  But, that's ok, that is how my luck runs normally, just ask my lotto dealer, I am particularly good at picking last weeks winning numbers 

Anyway, in regard to your comment "will you paper trade, or put skin in the game."  I have no idea what that means but I will be hanging on for now, I don't think the shares I have chosen are bad, just the market in general is bad.  

Ask me next week, I might tell you a different story......isn't that how it works in this game? :


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## So_Cynical (5 April 2013)

AdamVW said:


> yes the correction, well last I heard it may be less than expected after a good day in New York so hopefully I won't loose as much as I could. *I am down about 10% overall since I bought the shares a couple of weeks ago.*  But, that's ok, that is how my luck runs normally, just ask my lotto dealer, I am particularly good at picking last weeks winning numbers




Ill quote myself from last week.



So_Cynical said:


> Selection fine, *timing and thus SP seems to be somewhat irrelevant*...you mite get away with it.




So far you haven't "got away with it" Timing is important, being aware of sentiment is important, avoiding top buying is very important.



AdamVW said:


> I don't think the shares I have chosen are bad, just the market in general is bad.
> 
> Ask me next week, I might tell you a different story......isn't that how it works in this game? :




I'm sure the story will be different next week...that is the way it works.


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## skc (5 April 2013)

AdamVW said:


> Hi all
> 
> well, I might be 55 years old but finally decided to have a little play in the mysterious world of the stockmarket.
> 
> ...




There are 3 basic steps to investing in shares.

1. Find good companies.
2. Buy them at a good price.
3. Sell them at the right time.

Whereas for a lot of beginners, the 3 steps involve.

1. Rely on others to find out about "good" companies.
2. Buy regardless of price.
3. Sell at the wrong time, or never sell even though the decision to buy was wrong.

Assess where you are on the two ends of the spectrum and improve on the area that needs improving.

Good luck.


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## AdamVW (6 April 2013)

So_Cynical said:


> Ill quote myself from last week.
> 
> 
> 
> ...




Yes, you are indeed correct So_Cynical and I know I went in at a time when the market was on the down. However as you said, next week will be different.  I have not invested a lot of money so it is not a  big deal, just learning at the moment anyway even if we keep sliding away.


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## AdamVW (6 April 2013)

skc said:


> There are 3 basic steps to investing in shares.
> 
> 1. Find good companies.
> 2. Buy them at a good price.
> ...




Thanks SKC

well to be fair, I would expect learned people being paid considerable money to provide advice on good/bad stock as a reasonable source.  Of course it is not always the case as my SAR stock seems to indicate at the moment.

Point 3 is the one that is also on my mind. Time will tell I suppose.


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## ROE (6 April 2013)

SAR an interesting pick, a small gold producer ...are they they cheapest producer?
with NCM and the like cost around $700 to produce an ounce, these smaller guy probably close to 
$900-$1000 an ounce ...gold wouldn't have fall too far from this level for this business to be in trouble.

small mining companies are high risk in my view with little reward, they at the mercy of the commodity price with little room
to move...it wouldn't take much of commodity price move to move this stock down a lot....up is slow but down is fast...

BRG and MTU if I have them I hold...no way I buy them at the current price...


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## burglar (6 April 2013)

AdamVW said:


> ... "will you paper trade, or put skin in the game."




"Will you pretend you have them or will you buy them?"

Rather moot, as your post now tells us you have bought them.

Some excellent threads here on when to sell!

https://www.aussiestockforums.com/forums/showthread.php?t=21891


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