# The state of the economy at the street level



## Tyler Durden (20 May 2014)

I don't catch taxis often, but when I do, I like to have a chat with the driver and get his/her views on the state of the economy. It can be quite an interesting chat. 

I also like to walk a lot, and perhaps it's due to my 'bear-ish' nature, but I have noticed a lot of shops closing down on the streets I walk on. Some of these have been in existence for quite a while (like 5+ years) and some seem short lived. 

More recently, I have noticed some friends within my circle to be losing their job or struggling with their career stability. It almost feels like the grim reaper of redundancy is circling me like a shark.

So from my own personal, and microscopic experience, the state of the economy appears to be somewhat gloomy, or at the very least, cautious.

I'm interested in the views of others on their own personal/street level/coal face level on how they feel the economy is going or will be going. Please feel free to share


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## So_Cynical (21 May 2014)

I get a distinct upbeat feeling when walking and talking about town, i have a new and better paying job and have put my semi retirement to one side for a while, residential apartment construction seems to be taking off, lots of road works and shops opening.


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## Faramir (21 May 2014)

Most business owners I know and myself have experienced a downturn since July last year. Sometimes I have good months but my phone is much quieter than it was this time last year.


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## beachlife (21 May 2014)

most business owners I talk to say its quiet and complain that staff want top $$, have no pride in their work and think its their right to play with social media all day.  I also notice lots of for lease signs in the nearby light industrial area, and lots of vacant land in a recently developed industrial park.  Heard of one bloke that just closed his 20 year business because overheads are too high.  No doubt that the boom is over.


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## trainspotter (21 May 2014)

Cashflow is at critical levels IMO. The velocity of money through the economy is evidently slow with most accounts going past 90 days as people struggle with general cost of living and also rising prices of amenities.


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## Zedd (21 May 2014)

There's been a slow grind down in the amount of work we've been getting out of the government sector for the last 12 months.

The engineering job market is giving an interesting vibe. There are plenty of jobs for senior level staff but limited ads out for low to mid experience levels. Word is that there is a decent amount of money on the side for some significant projects in Brisbane looking to start 2nd half of this year / early next year - hence the need to hire senior now, and less experienced later.


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## sptrawler (21 May 2014)

On the street in my area, the only things thriving are building companies and people operating  fast food outlets or selling boutique coffee and cakes.

Most businesses relying on discretionary spending eg furniture, whitegoods, curtains etc are struggling or have already closed. 
Apparently owners, aren't cutting commercial tenants much slack, when it comes to rent.

There seems to be quite a few small engineering style businesses being bought by South Africans, in my area. Baby boomers wanting to retire seem to be taking this opportunity to sell their business.

The local council was recieving about 6 applications for general hand advertisements, a couple of years ago, now the number is closer to 40. My son works in mining and says the same applies, huge amount of applicants.

If the housing construction sector falls over, I think Perth will really feel it. However on that subject brickies aren't getting the same money/brick as they were in the last boom, a mate tells me.

So I think, things feel as though they are just static, going nowhere fast. IMO the governments are definately heading in the right direction with infrastructure spending.
With luck that will see us over untill the next cycle, when we become competitive again.

I personaly don't think we are out of the woods, I don't think weve found the map yet.lol


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## Wysiwyg (21 May 2014)

If responses are honest, this thread could be a valuable data mine. 

Immigrants on the increase?

I went to Brisbane for a couple of days earlier this month and caught 5 taxi rides in that time. Driving every taxi was not a man with his fat guts rubbing on the steering wheel or a scruffy red neck wreaking of cigarette smoke. No, each of the 5 taxi rides was driven by an Indian from the country India. They all looked similar in being clean shaven, well spoken, slim and dressed appropriately.

This tells me that if you're in another country, are intelligent, appreciative and want to work then Australia is the number one destination if you wish to build a quality life.


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## CanOz (21 May 2014)

Wysiwyg said:


> If responses are honest, this thread could be a valuable data mine.
> 
> Immigrants on the increase?
> 
> ...




I was amazed at that to Wys. I think most of our taxi driver in Brissy were middle eastern though. We got ripped off by an Eastern European taxi driver from the airport in Sydney to our friends townhouse. Should have been $20 and cost us $48 because we weren't paying attention, ar$s hole!

Allot of Asians in Sydney and Brisbane, 20-30% i would think at most times on the street, in the supermarkets....

Thats good for Australia, some new Asian money. Fewer of the old negative wining union types would make it so much more pleasant. The "gimme this, I deserve that types"!


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## Smurf1976 (21 May 2014)

It's much easier to get hold of a contractor at short notice than it used to be. They want every job they can get, and will pretty much bend over backwards to avoid saying no. So that's a negative in terms of the broad economy.

But on the other hand, government spending on infrastructure does seem to be picking up. No hard data there, just the general impression I have at the moment.

As for the energy business, it depends hugely on what sector but the real issue comes down to falling demand and rising gas prices and all that comes with it. Some outright winners, some outright losers and a few who can simply trade through it all and come out roughly even over the longer term. But as a broader economic indicator, electricity demand has been trending down for the past few years now. Gas hasn't seen that pattern thus far, although with the imminent price surge it's likely only a matter of time. Given that all economic activity requires energy in some way, demand is a reasonable proxy for the state of the "real" economy - it's not 1:1 by any means but there's a definite linkage.


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## sptrawler (21 May 2014)

Smurf1976 said:


> It's much easier to get hold of a contractor at short notice than it used to be. They want every job they can get, and will pretty much bend over backwards to avoid saying no. So that's a negative in terms of the broad economy.
> 
> But on the other hand, government spending on infrastructure does seem to be picking up. No hard data there, just the general impression I have at the moment.
> 
> As for the energy business, it depends hugely on what sector but the real issue comes down to falling demand and rising gas prices and all that comes with it. Some outright winners, some outright losers and a few who can simply trade through it all and come out roughly even over the longer term. But as a broader economic indicator, electricity demand has been trending down for the past few years now. Gas hasn't seen that pattern thus far, although with the imminent price surge it's likely only a matter of time. Given that all economic activity requires energy in some way, demand is a reasonable proxy for the state of the "real" economy - it's not 1:1 by any means but there's a definite linkage.




Same here in W.A smurph. Kwinana stage C is to shutdown next year, that means 4 x 120's and 2x 200 steam units will have closed down in the last few years. Essentialy only 2 x 100 hegt's have been installed, load musn't be a problem, I haven't heard of any new base load plant going in, on the grapevine.
Coal mining in Collie appears to be going pear shaped, they could do with another big unit there but the carbon tax scared everyone IMO.


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## beachlife (21 May 2014)

Smurf1976 said:


> It's much easier to get hold of a contractor at short notice than it used to be. They want every job they can get, and will pretty much bend over backwards to avoid saying no.




We have a wood patio and we want to replace the shade cloth with poly.  No one interested, they all want to rip it down and build a new steel one for between $10-$14k, except for the one bloke that said he will sheet it for $8k.  I reckon $800 in materials.  They want work, but only top $$ jobs. 

Same for a small steel fence we want moved.  We have taken it out, its about 8m long, with only 4 posts.  They want $2k to dig 4 holes and stand it up.  Will do it myself for a few hours work and $40 in rapid set.


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## sptrawler (21 May 2014)

beachlife said:


> We have a wood patio and we want to replace the shade cloth with poly.  No one interested, they all want to rip it down and build a new steel one for between $10-$14k, except for the one bloke that said he will sheet it for $8k.  I reckon $800 in materials.  They want work, but only top $$ jobs.
> 
> Same for a small steel fence we want moved.  We have taken it out, its about 8m long, with only 4 posts.  They want $2k to dig 4 holes and stand it up.  Will do it myself for a few hours work and $40 in rapid set.




What area of Aus, are you from Beachlife?


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## beachlife (21 May 2014)

Perth


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## pinkboy (21 May 2014)

I think it was Sir Joe BP who knew the economy by staring out the window of his office and counted the amount of cranes in the skyline.

When I was driving home from a mine last Wednesday I did a little experiment similar:

160km stretch of highway (Peak Downs Highway) and we counted all the freight trucks heading on the way out as we drove back into Mackay mid morning. Knowing full well there used to be many morning, afternoon and an evening run out to all the mines out there in the Bowen Basin,  it would be a good indicator.  We saw 5, yes only 5 general freight trucks.  That ain't a lot for 30+ mines who used to demand freight not just yesterday but last month when they needed gear 6-2 years ago. Was sad to count so few. We saw a few fuel tankers and 4 more trucks carrying concrete pillars probably for a bridge but that's all. I reckon at the peak there would have been close to 50 trucks every morning, 50+ more throughout the day every day in boom times.

So the slow down was as evident as fewer cranes in the skyline for Sir Joe.


pinkboy


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## sptrawler (21 May 2014)

beachlife said:


> Perth




Well that's understandable, the amount of residential building going on around Perth is out of control. 
Trying to get anything done associated with housing, will cost heaps, because they are flat out. As I said in the 7th post in this thread.


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## qldfrog (21 May 2014)

Brisbane is dead: just drive in industrial estates or try to find a job;
and no mc donald does not count!


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## Tyler Durden (21 May 2014)

One observation I've noticed here in Sydney is there seems to be a noticeable amount of petrol stations closing. Not really sure why, but then again, I guess you don't really need one on each side of the road. I assume that residential property will be built over it, even though the land has to remain vacant for 5 years (I think?).


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## coolcup (21 May 2014)

Some observations from me. I live in the lower north shore of Sydney:

1. Restaurants / bars are full and busy

2. Shops selling clothes, furniture, ornaments, decorations are empty

3. Residential apartments are coming out of the ground everywhere

4. The local hand car wash is suddenly flush full of cars. 12-18 months ago there were only your typical BWM / Mercedes / Audi types. Now it is your VW, Nissans, Mazdas and Toyotas

I get the sense people are willing to spend on smaller pleasures but are deferring big ticket expenditure (aside from real estate).


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## waterbottle (21 May 2014)

coolcup said:


> Some observations from me. I live in the lower north shore of Sydney:
> 
> 1. Restaurants / bars are full and busy
> 
> ...




I can definitely confirm point #2 in the inner west. Apartments are springing up everywhere. As for cars, there seem to be many more Audis, BMWs and mercedes these days.


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## Tyler Durden (21 May 2014)

waterbottle said:


> As for cars, there seem to be many more Audis, BMWs and mercedes these days.




Yes I have definitely noticed this! It's almost like the Audi is the new Holden!


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## sptrawler (21 May 2014)

Tyler Durden said:


> One observation I've noticed here in Sydney is there seems to be a noticeable amount of petrol stations closing. Not really sure why, but then again, I guess you don't really need one on each side of the road. I assume that residential property will be built over it, even though the land has to remain vacant for 5 years (I think?).




Most large corporations are rationalising, ie centralising. Petrol companies would be looking at margins and closing franchises that are covered by a more popular nearby or better located franchise.

The Swan Brewery in Perth, which is a reasonably modern factory has been closed and I believe Boags is making Emu Export cans, in Tassie.

There are two examples we know of, I bet there are heaps more.


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## sptrawler (21 May 2014)

waterbottle said:


> I can definitely confirm point #2 in the inner west. Apartments are springing up everywhere. As for cars, there seem to be many more Audis, BMWs and mercedes these days.




The common denominator in the thread so far is residential building, houses and apartments. Hope we end up with enough people to fill them.


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## Wysiwyg (21 May 2014)

sptrawler said:


> The common denominator in the thread so far is residential building, houses and apartments. Hope we end up with enough people to fill them.



Well as real estate becomes increasingly less affordable with companies downsizing and needing fewer employees then renting is the only alternative. Pinkboy's observation says much.


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## sptrawler (22 May 2014)

Wysiwyg said:


> Well as real estate becomes increasingly less affordable with companies downsizing and needing fewer employees then renting is the only alternative. Pinkboy's observation says much.




Ah, but if downsizing causes unemployment, who pays the rent.


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## McLovin (22 May 2014)

sptrawler said:


> Most large corporations are rationalising, ie centralising. Petrol companies would be looking at margins and closing franchises that are covered by a more popular nearby or better located franchise.




The number of petrol stations peaked in the early late 60's/early 70's and has been in a looong decline ever since. That's even with the growth in the number of cars. Today it's about 30% of the number at their peak. With more and more younger people moving into the inner city and not having cars, you'd have to expect the trend to continue. Oh and the trend is observable in most developed countries.


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## sptrawler (22 May 2014)

McLovin said:


> The number of petrol stations peaked in the early late 60's/early 70's and has been in a looong decline ever since. That's even with the growth in the number of cars. Today it's about 30% of the number at their peak. With more and more younger people moving into the inner city and not having cars, you'd have to expect the trend to continue. Oh and the trend is observable in most developed countries.




That's interesting McLovin, another fact relating to petrol stations is the improvement in car fuel economy.
I have travelled a lot from Perth to Kalgoorlie and return, due to family comitments. Over the years a lot of the fuel stations on the road have closed. When I talk to the owners they all say most cars can now do the trip on one tank of fuel, so no one stops for fuel anymore only food.


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## CanOz (22 May 2014)

Try to find a fuel station in China, good luck

Then when you do locate it its like try and spot it through the vegetation....not much motivation for cutting the trees back around the sign when you're a state owned company and your selling something everyone needs...just let them try and find you!

I think Australia is definitely in a transition phase from a resource economy to a service economy. I was amazed at the sky cranes in Brisbane, i counted more there from our hotel than from our house here in China. One of our friends there is in construction and he's very busy....mostly trying to keep the union guys working...

We were on the GC and it was dead, but i guess that is to be expected for the time of year....


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## CanOz (22 May 2014)

waterbottle said:


> ...there seem to be many more Audis, BMWs and mercedes these days.




lol...i mentioned this to my wife and she said ... "Chinese". Its likely a generalization but its the first thing that came to my mind as well. No one likes the German cars as much as the Chinese...


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## Craton (22 May 2014)

In my area of Far West, NSW. No prizes for guessing the locale...

Since 2013:
One IGA store, closed down
Old Royal Hotel, closed down

Commonwealth Motors, closed down

Local Holden dealership, sold to a Sth Aust. interest.

Two fuel stations, both Mobile, closed down.

This year:
Beaurepairs, closed down
Carousel Jewellers, closed down
Cullen Jewellers, closed down
Broken Earth CafÃ©, closed down

West Darling Hotel, closed down.

Legion Club, Went into administration but closed down within a month.
Musicians Club, Went into administration, still trading but Admins given it one year to turn around.

Wentworth Services Club, closed down.

Enterprise Development Committee, mostly govt funded, closed down.

City Council under huge revenue declines. Jobs will go from top down starting Q3.

Perilya, lay offs
CBH, lay offs.

There are others that I can't recall at present.

On the positive, sort of, Coles opened a brand new full blown Coles store and associated complex last month, several shop fronts in the complex are vacant but. Cost the closure of the old store and leaving a huge hole in that area.

Since 2009~10, my company has reduced staff from 9 FT & 1PT to just 2FT and 1PT.

Do I see improvement in the near future?
No, not really...but its the same for so many of Australia's remote and regional areas. Declining and aging demographic and the kids, like mine, off to the bright lights. Govt services reducing or closing, commodity prices having an impact, cost of goods and services going up and up and up and on it goes.

What I do see is the big names, the national and multinationals gaining an ever bigger slice of the pie and that only means, playing on their terms and paying their prices.


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## Smurf1976 (22 May 2014)

sptrawler said:


> That's interesting McLovin, another fact relating to petrol stations is the improvement in car fuel economy.



Improvement in the roads too.

Go back a generation and even though it's only 200km, driving Hobart to Launceston required going through every small town along the way. Today with a couple of exceptions they have all been by-passed.

So you have the towns themselves mostly by-passed, fuel consumption such that practically every vehicle on the road can very easily do the trip without filling up, and also the great improvement in ride quality and ease of driving modern vehicles. Put all that together and there's simply no reason why anyone would stop unless they're intentionally going into one of the small towns for whatever reason but the vast majority will just drive A to B without stopping.

It's also perhaps worth mentioning that we've hit "peak cars". If you look at car travel on a per capita basis then it's trending down in most developed countries. 

That also has largely brought an end to "car culture" - it was a very much bigger thing in the past than it is today. Whereas once any male aged 18 without a drivers' license was considered a freak, these days many just don't see the point. It's harder and more costly to get a license, living a city there's less need for it, and they have zero interest in cars other than as a means of getting from A to B. Hotted up Toranas have given way to stock standard Hyundai, Mazda etc cars. Hence things like the closure of Holden and Ford - unthinkable a generation ago for cultural reasons as much as anything else but now it's actually happening.

So we still have cars just as we still have steel and we still have agriculture. But they're all in the past so far as pushing growth is concerned.


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## sptrawler (22 May 2014)

Smurf1976 said:


> Improvement in the roads too.
> 
> Go back a generation and even though it's only 200km, driving Hobart to Launceston required going through every small town along the way. Today with a couple of exceptions they have all been by-passed.
> 
> ...




Continuing on the car theme. I was reading an interview with the manager of Mazda, he indicated it was only a matter of time before electric vehicles made petrol engines obsolete. He also made mention of the massive amounts of money being poured into battery technology.
This will cause a lot of ripple effect through the economy, it will be a lot worse than losing Holden and Ford.IMO

I suppose diesel is another issue, hauling massive weights over long distances, will mean diesel trucks, trains will be around for a while.


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## Tyler Durden (22 May 2014)

Just wanted to say thanks to everyone for their input so far, it's been really interesting to read about people's first hand experiences.

I've noticed a couple of mens formal clothing stores closing in the Sydney CBD. I reckon one would have been there for at least 10 years, and the other which is in the process of closing probably has been around for at least 20 years.

I remember reading a news article a while ago (can't find the link anymore) suggesting that tailors may be on the chopping block, given there is now new technology where you can step into a machine which then sends the measurements to China to have your own tailor suit made. 

Not sure how well received that will be, but for me personally, I have been buying business shirts, ties and cufflinks online as they are cheaper, and with shirts, once you find your size you are pretty much set. For suits I still prefer going into a brick and mortar, but along the lines of DJs or Myer.


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## satanoperca (22 May 2014)

Tyler Durden said:


> Just wanted to say thanks to everyone for their input so far, it's been really interesting to read about people's first hand experiences.
> 
> I've noticed a couple of mens formal clothing stores closing in the Sydney CBD. I reckon one would have been there for at least 10 years, and the other which is in the process of closing probably has been around for at least 20 years.
> 
> ...




The new world order, we get to dress well for less.


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## sptrawler (22 May 2014)

Tyler Durden said:


> Just wanted to say thanks to everyone for their input so far, it's been really interesting to read about people's first hand experiences.
> 
> I've noticed a couple of mens formal clothing stores closing in the Sydney CBD. I reckon one would have been there for at least 10 years, and the other which is in the process of closing probably has been around for at least 20 years.
> 
> ...




I never had any problems buying my overalls.

Finding cufflinks to fit them was always a problem.lol Sorry off topic.


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## sptrawler (22 May 2014)

Here is another indication discretionary spending is tightening. 
Public school enrolments are overtaking private schools, in W.A

http://www.abc.net.au/news/2014-05-22/wa-public-school-growth-overtakes-private/5471568


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## Clifton (23 May 2014)

Something Ive noticed in Perth in the prolifaration of massage parlours in shopping centres etc, and nail bars, Im told that a lot of these are cash only, you can see whats going on here,


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## pinkboy (23 May 2014)

Clifton said:


> Something Ive noticed in Perth in the prolifaration of massage parlours in shopping centres etc, and nail bars, Im told that a lot of these are cash only, you can see whats going on here,




Lots of these shops have the 'white bucket till' under the counter! ;-)


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## Judd (23 May 2014)

sptrawler said:


> I never had any problems buying my overalls.
> 
> Finding cufflinks to fit them was always a problem.lol Sorry off topic.




And I always thought the matching cummerbund was the main issue.  Well, there you go; live and learn.


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## waterbottle (25 May 2014)

This has probably been going on for a while since the GFC, but retailers are STILL in a ever-lasting sales mode. One example is a shop in Broadway Shopping Centre (NSW). I swear it has had 3 closing down sales in the past 2 years, each time offering up to 70% off and yet it is still open!


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## Tyler Durden (25 May 2014)

waterbottle said:


> This has probably been going on for a while since the GFC, but retailers are STILL in a ever-lasting sales mode. One example is a shop in Broadway Shopping Centre (NSW). I swear it has had 3 closing down sales in the past 2 years, each time offering up to 70% off and yet it is still open!




Yeah I would like to know what the law as to that is. I mean, is there a time limit as to when it is closing down? A month? 2 months? A year?

I suppose technically they could have Company A own it, advertise a closing down sale, sell it to Company B, advertise it's own closing down sale, sell it to Company C and so on.


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## LinRegSlope (25 May 2014)

I used to work at the front end (commercially) on major resource projects, either O&G (onshore processing) or Mining (Iron Ore). The majority of people I keep in contact with in this field are either unemployed, recently made redundant, or struggling to hang on to their jobs. Contract rates are well down, and supply of people easily outweighs job demand regarding roles on offer.


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## Smurf1976 (25 May 2014)

waterbottle said:


> I swear it has had 3 closing down sales in the past 2 years, each time offering up to 70% off and yet it is still open!




It's like those people who sell Persian rugs. Their warehouses seem to catch fire alarmingly often (though strangely it never seems to damage the stock).

Never, ever, share a warehouse with one of these guys. At least not unless you also plan on having a "fire sale". 

I spoke to the owner of a small manufacturer of electrical equipment last week. I won't be too specific to avoid identifying them (not too many manufacturers of electrical gear in Tassie....) but in short it's stuff that's used mostly in the commercial and industrial market and would be needed for new construction or renovation. 

According to the owner, there was a huge slowdown a few months ago which he was assuming was related to the state election. But we've had the election and business hasn't bounced back, not at all it's still right down. He wasn't being political as such, just commenting that he'd assumed that regardless of who was elected, getting it over and done with might be good for business but this hasn't been the case.

Apparently it's not a case of them not winning tenders etc, there just isn't much work to tender for in the first place and they are now quoting on literally every job, no matter how small, they can find. Suffice to say he was very interested in knowing what works we might have coming up that they could tender for and pointed out that, being local, if we needed something in a hurry then they'd be more than happy to do whatever was needed to make it quickly. Apparently they have "just enough work to keep ticking over" but things sure aren't good.

Also had a visit from a salesman (actually the sales manager) from a company based in another state last week. They make some of the same items as the local company I've mentioned. So he's got on a plane, flown to Tas, on the off chance that this might generate a sale or two. Apparently he was flying to Melbourne the next day, then off to NZ. 

Another one, supplier of custom built equipment (not electrical). They're offering a 40% discount if we take the one they've already got sitting there rather than building a new one that's very slightly different. Given that the one they've already got would have many potential buyers it seems that they're having real trouble actually selling things. 

All of these relate to companies supplying equipment that would be used either for business expansion or to replace existing equipment which has a long lifespan. So it seems that there isn't much expansion going on, and that nobody is really replacing things until it's absolutely worn out and replacement is essential. In other words, businesses are conserving cash where possible by deferring expenditure on anything not absolutely critical right now.

Another one, pubs and especially nightclubs. I'm told (by someone who would know) that it's basically become a lot more competitive especially outside the peak periods. You can still fill a popular venue to capacity on Saturday night, but at any time other than the peak it's become harder to maintain volume especially for "generic" nights (regular DJ's etc not someone touring) that are run every week. There's apparently some nights (especially mid week) at certain venues that are actually cash flow negative now whereas once they were quite profitable, the only reason they're still running them at all is in the hope that competitors (who they believe to also be losing money) pull the pin first. Last man standing type of thing as the market isn't big enough at present to keep everyone profitable. The venues in question are in NSW and SA.


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## sptrawler (25 May 2014)

Smurf1976 said:


> It's like those people who sell Persian rugs. Their warehouses seem to catch fire alarmingly often (though strangely it never seems to damage the stock).
> 
> Never, ever, share a warehouse with one of these guys. At least not unless you also plan on having a "fire sale".
> 
> ...




I think the last man standing idea, is alive and well. 
Definitely in the car radiator business, local manufacturers are having heaps of trouble competing with Chinese imports. The Chines product is junk, but peopls aren't prepared to pay the extra for the Australian product.
The problem is radiator shops don't want to fit the Chinese product because of warranty problems. 
The screws turn tighter and tighter.


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## Tyler Durden (29 May 2014)

I have a friend who delivers groceries to homes for one of the major super markets. He tells me that not only are there people willing to pay a delivery fee, but some even give him tips.

Maybe some aren't doing too badly out there.


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## sydboy007 (30 May 2014)

I'm evenly divided.  I see a few clothing / fashion shops shutting down, but then the cafes and cheaper restaurants are doing a roaring trade, especially with the great weather we've been having in Sydney.

Admittedly I'm in a reasonably high income area, so it would be interesting to see if things have changed much in the western suburbs where incomes are generally lower.  The way the budget has been received and consumer confidence has tanked, not sure if that bodes well for the future or if things will recover quickly as people decide most of the nasties will be watered down to get through the senate.


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## Wysiwyg (30 May 2014)

With automation and 'efficient systems', less human beings are needed to perform repetitive daily tasks. This bodes well for Managers and above because lower life form costs are eliminated which allows them to award themselves big fat set-for-life salaries. On the street are redundant human beings and those near redundancy with less earnings week to week.


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## CanOz (30 May 2014)

Wysiwyg said:


> With automation and 'efficient systems', less human beings are needed to perform repetitive daily tasks. This bodes well for Managers and above because lower life form costs are eliminated which allows them to award themselves big fat set-for-life salaries. On the street are redundant human beings and those near redundancy with less earnings week to week.




So what should we do, put people back in the mines and take out the machines? Get guys stacking boxes by hand and remove the robots? 

You seem to forget that robotics also has made things safer for us too....

Oh, perhaps there is no opportunity left to take advantage of the work care system either...bummer.

Here in China, labor has hit the magic 100 rmb per day mark, mechanization has hit the root crops, finally. Now instead of having to deal with 100 pickers, smetimes not wanting to work at all with the crop burning in the sun or risk of frost at hand, he can get three guys into machines and harvest his crop....bummer


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## Wysiwyg (30 May 2014)

CanOz said:


> So what should we do, put people back in the mines and take out the machines? Get guys stacking boxes by hand and remove the robots?
> 
> You seem to forget that robotics also has made things safer for us too....



Yes you're absolutely right. The migration from manual work to touch screen is happening now though I can't see where the majority of manual workers, those with more brawn than brains are going to fit in.


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## Julia (30 May 2014)

Tyler Durden said:


> I have a friend who delivers groceries to homes for one of the major super markets. He tells me that not only are there people willing to pay a delivery fee, but some even give him tips.
> 
> Maybe some aren't doing too badly out there.



What most are not seeming to recognise is individual initiative and effort.
I have a window cleaner, significantly disabled because his mother took thalidomide during the pregnancy and as a result he has one arm which is a stump at the elbow and the other with a full hand but only about four inches long below the elbow.

It has not stopped him being self sufficient all his adult life.  He runs a highly regarded cleaning business, where no corners are cut and a perfect result is assured.  To watch him washing the interior roof of my patio, on a stepladder, is a very humbling experience.  He also never considers that his disability puts him at any sort of disadvantage.  Hence his success.


----------



## Ken Oath (31 May 2014)

What has stood out to me throughout this thread is the internet.  Supposedly we are in transition into the information age.  The shops that have to compete with goods that can be accessed on the internet are in decline.  I see that in my home town with many shops that have been operating as long as I can remember disappearing leaving a slow and depressed mall area.  Although, Food & service products continue to do quite well.

It is a huge task for all of us to adapt, adjust & innovate.

Another point is that Australia came through the GFC almost unscathed compared to the countries in the Northern Hemisphere.  Was that good Governance or because our Asian neighbours were discovering capitalism and booming?

Speaking of Government,  there seems to be a lot of angry people regarding the recent budget.  Maybe the Government has already seen what we are discussing here and decided we cannot carry large levels of debt into the future.


----------



## sydboy007 (31 May 2014)

Ken Oath said:


> Speaking of Government,  there seems to be a lot of angry people regarding the recent budget.  Maybe the Government has already seen what we are discussing here and decided we cannot carry large levels of debt into the future.




if that was true we'd be heading back to the system before deregulation with limits on credit growth.  $1.8T in private debt and counting.  It never rates a mention, yet I feel it's now at a level that makes the economy extremely fragile.  The Govt talks about $1B a month in interest payments for the public debt, yet never mentions the over $100B in private interest - ~50% of which leaves the country - and the fact that we've sold off so much of the ASX to foreigners as well so much of the economic profit of our major companies also heads off overseas.


----------



## pixel (31 May 2014)

sydboy007 said:


> we've sold off so much of the ASX to foreigners as well so much of the economic profit of our major companies also heads off overseas.




... and how much economic profit would there be *without* foreign investment?
... and how much economic profit do Australian companies import from Overseas operations?


----------



## sydboy007 (31 May 2014)

pixel said:


> ... and how much economic profit would there be *without* foreign investment?
> ... and how much economic profit do Australian companies import from Overseas operations?




I'm not complaining about borrowings that are self liquidating, but we borrow far too much for consumption, especially our over consumption of housing.

No idea how much income we receive from our overseas investments, but I'd feel confident to bet that we still have a net deficit.


----------



## Smurf1976 (31 May 2014)

sydboy007 said:


> I'm not complaining about borrowings that are self liquidating, but we borrow far too much for consumption, especially our over consumption of housing.




If you look at it from a national perspective, then what we did is borrow a huge amount of money from overseas in order to end up with mostly the same houses we already had. We took on a heap of debt in return for essentially nothing of value.

To suggest that private debt somehow doesn't matter whilst public debt does, is to suggest that government is most or all of the economy which in Australia it clearly isn't. Private debt will matter an awful lot when interest rates rise or some other major shock occurs - it will happen someday.


----------



## Faramir (31 May 2014)

Has anyone tried booking accommodation very recently? It seems much more easier to book a room than last year. I was asked to stay an extra night in Kiama last weekend. I went to the counter expecting "sorry, all rooms have been booked out" but instead they told me that they had heaps of rooms. Normally this motel is very crowded but last weekend it was not the case. I was my first weekend work trip being away for a while. I am definitely holding back on travelling. I wish I could avoid it altogether.


----------



## Smurf1976 (31 May 2014)

Faramir said:


> I am definitely holding back on travelling. I wish I could avoid it altogether.




Is that purely as a means of saving money? Or for some other reason (eg concerns about airline safety, environmental reasons etc?)


----------



## sydboy007 (31 May 2014)

Smurf1976 said:


> If you look at it from a national perspective, then what we did is borrow a huge amount of money from overseas in order to end up with mostly the same houses we already had. We took on a heap of debt in return for essentially nothing of value.
> 
> To suggest that private debt somehow doesn't matter whilst public debt does, is to suggest that government is most or all of the economy which in Australia it clearly isn't. Private debt will matter an awful lot when interest rates rise or some other major shock occurs - it will happen someday.




Very true.  Considering over 90% of property "investors" tend to buy pre existing dwellings, and negatively gear those properties, it's a massive drain on the budget and massive drain on the economy.  Shelter is now worth over $5T, yet it's basically false wealth.

I often think one of the way reasons our productivity is so crap these days is because the value of the land for business is so high.  A country the size of Australia and we've somehow woven ourselves up in zoning laws and restrictive development processes that it costs too much to build practically anything.


----------



## sydboy007 (31 May 2014)

Faramir said:


> Has anyone tried booking accommodation very recently? It seems much more easier to book a room than last year. I was asked to stay an extra night in Kiama last weekend. I went to the counter expecting "sorry, all rooms have been booked out" but instead they told me that they had heaps of rooms. Normally this motel is very crowded but last weekend it was not the case. I was my first weekend work trip being away for a while. I am definitely holding back on travelling. I wish I could avoid it altogether.




My parents handle a few small beachside holiday rental properties for their owners and they still seem to be getting pretty good levels of bookings.  My mum was complaining the unusually warm weather was making it busier than usual.


----------



## Faramir (31 May 2014)

Smurf1976 said:


> Is that purely as a means of saving money? Or for some other reason (eg concerns about airline safety, environmental reasons etc?)




Just want to save money.


----------



## So_Cynical (31 May 2014)

Sydney city was packed tonight for Vivid, never seen so many people in town out side of NY's or some similar event, standing room only on the train home at 10.30...no visible signs of financial distress at street level tonight.


----------



## sydboy007 (1 June 2014)

So_Cynical said:


> Sydney city was packed tonight for Vivid, never seen so many people in town out side of NY's or some similar event, standing room only on the train home at 10.30...no visible signs of financial distress at street level tonight.




My new housemate was out to meet her sister and family last night for vivid.  She also couldn't believe how busy it still was as they'd purposefully left going till later in the festival.  From the news reports the last few weekends have been crazily busy.  Certainly should be making a lot of the businesses around the harbour very happy.


----------



## qldfrog (1 June 2014)

could also be the sheer increase of size in the population
legal/illegal immigrants..sorry refugees who travelled here and got lost;
And as the infrastructure has not followed..
festival in India are VERY busy, crowds ofpilgrims in Mecca , not so sure I would link number to wealth or available money, but I wish you are right.


----------



## Smurf1976 (1 June 2014)

So_Cynical said:


> Sydney city was packed tonight for Vivid, never seen so many people in town out side of NY's or some similar event, standing room only on the train home at 10.30...no visible signs of financial distress at street level tonight.




I didn't go myself, it's not my music style that's for sure, but there was some hip-hop type event on in Hobart last night. Sold out apparently and it was at a fairly large venue - I know someone who had trouble getting tickets.

So that sort of thing still seems to be doing well.


----------



## sydboy007 (1 June 2014)

Just been into the Sydney CBD and it's as busy as usual, surprising given the gloomy weather.

Plenty of shopping bags to be seen too.  T2 was doing well, but then I thin shops that have cheap "luxuries" tend to weather the storm not too badly.  Bit like how women will supposedly buy themselves lipstick or makeup instead of other stuff when times are tight.

Would be interesting to see how smaller suburban shopping centres are fairing though.  I know Sydney things have migrated to Broadway / Pitt St Mall / Bondi Westfields.  Newtown / Paddington have really died.  There's plenty of for lease signs around the edge of the CBD too.  Not sure how many more Thai restaurants we can have here, even though it now seems to be the national dish (at least in Sydney).


----------



## Smurf1976 (3 June 2014)

A significant business collapse today, electrical contractor PSG has gone bust and ceased operations immediately.

About 600 employees nationally, largely electricians and associated workers plus administration.

Vic - 200 workers. Tas - 200 workers. SA - about 100. Qld - about 100.

So not looking good there it seems. Also in the news, a smallish bus manufacturing company in SA has gone bust - roughly 50 jobs gone I think.


----------



## Judd (4 June 2014)

Smurf1976 said:


> A significant business collapse today, electrical contractor PSG has gone bust and ceased operations immediately.
> 
> About 600 employees nationally, largely electricians and associated workers plus administration.
> 
> ...




Ouch!  Didn't they have a contract for the NBN?  I remember reading that somewhere and also it was/is, I believe, a part of a private equity group.


----------



## sydboy007 (4 June 2014)

maybe not something you can see but probaby starting to be felt by many.

From the ABS today:

_The median weekly earnings for employees in their main job was $950, at August 2013, according to the Australian Bureau of Statistics (ABS). This represents a 2 per cent decrease in real median earnings (CPI adjusted) over the year. This was the first year to year decrease since 2008…_

_Real (earnings adjusted by CPI) median weekly earnings in main job fell by 2.1% in the year to August 2013, the largest fall in a decade. Real mean weekly earnings were essentially unchanged (a fall of 0.2%). However, in the previous year (from August 2011 to August 2012), real median and real mean weekly earnings in main job each rose by 3.5%. Over the decade to August 2013, real median weekly earnings rose by 14% while real mean weekly earnings rose by 20%._

So while the GDP figures may look great from the outside, more and more it's going to feel like a recession for many as real wages continue to decline as the ToT keeps falling and GNI falls away with it.


----------



## sydboy007 (5 June 2014)

In the year to April 2014, 8.89 million Australians holidayed overseas over the year – a 139% increase on 10 years ago (3.71 million)

According to the ABS, the number of Aussies leaving to holiday in South East Asia (particularly Indonesia and Thailand) rose to a record 250,400 in April, with South East Asia also accounting for 32% of Australia’s total tourist departures over the month

From the looks of it roughly 800,000 Australians headed off overseas in April.  I know it's probably a bit dated since it's before the no surprises budget, but if roughly 3% of the population can have an overseas holiday in just one month, things can't be that bad


----------



## skc (5 June 2014)

sydboy007 said:


> From the looks of it roughly 800,000 Australians headed off overseas in April.  I know it's probably a bit dated since it's before the no surprises budget, but if roughly 3% of the population can have an overseas holiday in just one month, things can't be that bad




I liked this story on the AFR.

http://www.afr.com/p/opinion/new_wealthy_poor_making_less_sense_VovcjDp9H1OTpRNI9NowMP



> Known by many economists as the “wealthy poor” – a growing class of Australians is emerging.
> 
> This is a group of educated, well-earning people, in their late 20s with no children who are yet to break the over-priced Australian property market. They earn around or just above the national average wage of $77,800 a year. But like many others, this new breed are really only a few pay cheques away from bankruptcy. Nowadays, wealthy has a case of mistaken identity.


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## qldfrog (5 June 2014)

sydboy007 said:


> From the looks of it roughly 800,000 Australians headed off overseas in April.  I know it's probably a bit dated since it's before the no surprises budget, but if roughly 3% of the population can have an overseas holiday in just one month, things can't be that bad



travelling overseas is cheaper than inland , especially if the focus is on alcohol/party
so yes more and more bog travel to the worst area of bali/fidji, etc;
and the wealthy are using the strong USD while it lasts...
remember that some people are broke but keep piling up on the credit card..you and i may not  do it, but i know someone on the verge of bankrupsy who purchased a cruise for the family just before the account was empty...
now fighting to keep the house....


----------



## Smurf1976 (5 June 2014)

Judd said:


> Ouch!  Didn't they have a contract for the NBN?  I remember reading that somewhere and also it was/is, I believe, a part of a private equity group.




Not sure who owned it but they were definitely doing some NBN work. Not sure how much of their business was NBN-related but definitely there was some. They also have a number of major contracts, eg the new hospital being built in Adelaide is one.

It's as dead as can be it would seem. I'm told that by this afternoon one particular local contractor here in Tas has thus far managed to pick up enough of the work that there would be no prospect of PSG returning to operation since the customer base has already substantially gone elsewhere. At a guess, most likely that wouldn't include anything NBN-related given the complexity of such contracts etc.


----------



## sydboy007 (6 June 2014)

Strip out net exports and adjust for the population ponzi and things are not looking good with the good ship Australia.  Just another reason why a lot of people are finding it harder to pay the bills.

http://www.macrobusiness.com.au/2014/06/your-falling-living-standards-charted/

_The two measures chosen are:

Gross national expenditure (GNE), which is “the total expenditure within a given period by Australian residents on final goods and services (i.e. excluding goods and services used up during the period in the process of production). It is equivalent to gross domestic product plus imports of goods and services less exports of goods and services”.
Domestic final demand (DFD), which is the sum of “government final consumption expenditure, household final consumption expenditure, private gross fixed capital formation and the gross fixed capital formation of public corporations and general government”.
As you can see, both measures exclude the growth impact from rising export volumes.

So what do these measures show when measured on a per capita basis?

First, after rising solidly in the three years to September 2012, both GNE and DFD have been falling:_


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## sptrawler (9 June 2014)

The job losses keep racking up, however I am noticing a lot more fast food outlets are opening up.

Australia post to shed 900 jobs.
http://www.abc.net.au/news/2014-06-08/australia-post-to-cut-hundreds-of-jobs-report/5508236

BHP to shed another 280 jobs.
https://au.news.yahoo.com/thewest/business/wa/a/24195122/bhp-axes-180-jobs-at-newman/

A relative was down from Kalgoorlie on the weekend, apparently it is in a terrible state, people leaving in droves.

I suppose a lot of Eastern Staters will be heading back across the Nullabor, and NZers heading home. During downturns it is usually best to be close to family.


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## Tyler Durden (9 June 2014)

sptrawler said:


> The job losses keep racking up, however I am noticing a lot more fast food outlets are opening up.
> 
> Australia post to shed 900 jobs.
> http://www.abc.net.au/news/2014-06-08/australia-post-to-cut-hundreds-of-jobs-report/5508236
> ...




Yes, food certainly seems to be a staple, but I wonder if all these job losses will affect the prices at these places. I guess it might, in part, explain the comments against instituting a tipping culture in Australia.

And for me, the quality of service of Australia Post is already quite sub-standard, not sure what cutting 900 jobs is going to do to that alread sub-standard level of service.


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## So_Cynical (9 June 2014)

So_Cynical said:


> (31st-May-2014 ) Sydney city was packed tonight for Vivid, never seen so many people in town out side of NY's or some similar event, standing room only on the train home at 10.30...no visible signs of financial distress at street level tonight.




Absolutely packed again on both Saturday and Sunday Afternoons/night, coffee shops with customers 3 deep, same with the take away food joints and many of the sit down establishments..no visible signs of financial distress at street level at all.


----------



## Tyler Durden (9 June 2014)

So_Cynical said:


> Absolutely packed again on both Saturday and Sunday Afternoons/night, coffee shops with customers 3 deep, same with the take away food joints and many of the sit down establishments..no visible signs of financial distress at street level at all.




I suppose the issue of that might be, you're only seeing the people who can afford to go out, and not the people who are at home because they can't afford to go out. Just trying to play the devil's advocate - bear style.


----------



## Wysiwyg (9 June 2014)

So_Cynical said:


> Absolutely packed again on both Saturday and Sunday Afternoons/night, coffee shops with customers 3 deep, same with the take away food joints and many of the sit down establishments..no visible signs of financial distress at street level at all.



You know what that is. People 'feeling' rich (for the youths, parent house worth plus half million) with the value of their property and low mortgage interest rates. When the official goes to 5% and over (won't happen soon obviously) them coffees are gonna be at home satchels in front of the telly. Enjoy it while it lasts I suppose plus psychologically it is good to 'feel' better.


----------



## So_Cynical (9 June 2014)

Tyler Durden said:


> I suppose the issue of that might be, you're only seeing the people who can afford to go out, and not the people who are at home because they can't afford to go out. Just trying to play the devil's advocate - bear style.




Sure, would add that the Vivid festival is a free event and maybe that's a factor too...still coffee shops etc were packed, seriously customers 3 deep at the registers buying $4.30 coffees and hot chocolates, public transport packed often with standing room only, and it was cool on both nights with occasional drizzle.


----------



## Sound (9 June 2014)

sptrawler said:


> The job losses keep racking up, however I am noticing a lot more fast food outlets are opening up.




Probably pre-empting the fact that as people have less money, they resort to cheaper & lower quality food. An additional factor would be the potential for GST to be introduced on fresh food.


Regarding Vivid, I too was surprised at the sheer quantity of people attending. I would however struggle to claim this has anything to do with consumer sentiment, but rather broad population growth, coupled with the fact that it's an entirely free event.


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## qldfrog (9 June 2014)

500 000 new arrivant last year is it?
mostly young and in Sydney/melbourne
Going to a free festival is a must and can do.
a coffee at $5 is a great deal vs a ticket in the $100 for a paying festival


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## Tyler Durden (10 June 2014)

I have a friend, aged about 28 and works for a federal government agency, whose mother fell into the property hype and forced her to buy an apartment in the North Sydney area. Not even a year later, the budget cuts hit her office and she got pushed down a level (so did many others), so will now have to support the mortgage on a lower salary.


----------



## sptrawler (10 June 2014)

Tyler Durden said:


> I have a friend, aged about 28 and works for a federal government agency, whose mother fell into the property hype and forced her to buy an apartment in the North Sydney area. Not even a year later, the budget cuts hit her office and she got pushed down a level (so did many others), so will now have to support the mortgage on a lower salary.




Maybe she could take whoever forced her to buy the apartment, to court.

I know a couple of friends who have hit 60 and are still renting. Needless to say they are starting to $hit themselves and their wife's haven't realised the issues yet.


----------



## sydboy007 (11 June 2014)

Tyler Durden said:


> I have a friend, aged about 28 and works for a federal government agency, whose mother fell into the property hype and forced her to buy an apartment in the North Sydney area. Not even a year later, the budget cuts hit her office and she got pushed down a level (so did many others), so will now have to support the mortgage on a lower salary.




It scares me the number of people who want to get into the property market yet don't do their sums.  At least once a month I'm doing a basic CBA with someone at work or extended social group and they're shocked once you put things into financial terms.  They realise they can live in a more desirable suburb or larger property by renting, and as long as they use some of the difference between a mortgage and renting to increase their level of savings they should be OK.

I just can't believe people go into purchasing an IP and when you ask them what's the gross yield, what are the holding costs, what is your net return, how much do you have to add into the mortgage on a weekly basis and they struggle to tell you any of those.  It's worse when you ask them what they think their 3 year job security is like.  I honestly think sometimes Australians just have bricks and mortar in their heads (as opposed to rocks)


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## sydboy007 (11 June 2014)

qldfrog said:


> 500 000 new arrivant last year is it?
> mostly young and in Sydney/melbourne
> Going to a free festival is a must and can do.
> a coffee at $5 is a great deal vs a ticket in the $100 for a paying festival




Over the long weekend in Sydney there was a massive number of people on Sat and Sun night taking advantage of the last days of the vidid festival.  I'd say you're right in that they can take the kids and see a fun light show for a couple of hours and have a cheap fast food dinner for less than the cost of seeing a movie.


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## sptrawler (11 June 2014)

sydboy007 said:


> It scares me the number of people who want to get into the property market yet don't do their sums.  At least once a month I'm doing a basic CBA with someone at work or extended social group and they're shocked once you put things into financial terms.  They realise they can live in a more desirable suburb or larger property by renting, and as long as they use some of the difference between a mortgage and renting to increase their level of savings they should be OK.
> 
> I just can't believe people go into purchasing an IP and when you ask them what's the gross yield, what are the holding costs, what is your net return, how much do you have to add into the mortgage on a weekly basis and they struggle to tell you any of those.  It's worse when you ask them what they think their 3 year job security is like.  I honestly think sometimes Australians just have bricks and mortar in their heads (as opposed to rocks)




I'm with you on this Syd. 
I can't see how they can be expecting a capital gain large enough to offset the risk involved.
I know with the work situation in Perth at the moment, I would be reducing debt, not increasing it.
But I was allways a conservative investor .


----------



## Smurf1976 (11 June 2014)

sydboy007 said:


> They realise they can live in a more desirable suburb or larger property by renting, and as long as they use some of the difference between a mortgage and renting to increase their level of savings they should be OK.




I understand you point and agree with the basic notion. But I think that to be fair, you need to do the comparison assuming that any difference in cost between rent and a mortgage is either spent or at best placed in a bank account then spent later. 

In practice, only a minority will successfully invest what they save, most will spend in the short to medium term and the rest will put it in the bank. Something that's easy to forget, is that whilst owning shares is moderately common on Australian society, only a small minority take any serious interest in it. For most, it's Telstra, BHP, a big bank, Woolworths and that's it.


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## sptrawler (17 June 2014)

At last a bit of good news, W.A argricultural industries starting to make inroads in China.

https://au.news.yahoo.com/thewest/a/24250739/china-in-1b-wa-livestock-deal/

The upside jobs potential in Australian agriculture is huge.IMO


----------



## Tyler Durden (19 June 2014)

I've been noticing a couple of 'pop up stores' lately, most recently saw an MJ Bale one tonight near Martin Place.

It seems to me the idea is to open up a temporary store, put up signs everywhere with big loud words of "CLOSING SOON" and "POP UP STORE" to attract attention and draw some urgency, try to sell everything at a (purported?) discounted price, close up when the short period of lease ends and hope you've sold as much as you can.

This way you avoid long term leases and people feel the rush to buy something before they miss out. 

Might be the bricks and mortars way of fighting back against online shops (with futility?).


----------



## Tyler Durden (28 June 2014)

Took a walk around the Sydney CBD today, and noticed that one of the Foot Lockers store was closing down, had just a table full of shoes and a rack of shirts to sell off at 50% discount otherwise the shop was completely empty. It's the one near the Star Bar, in the plaza that connects to Town Hall station. It's been there for like 15-20 years.

This didn't surprise me for two reasons:

1. You don't need three Foot Lockers stores within 1-2km radius of each other.

2. All the things they sell can be purchased much cheaper online from overseas, even after shipping costs, with a much larger range of choice.

Also noticed a Moochi frozen yoghurt on George St had closed down, which was a little surprising, since I thought these frozen yoghurt places were all the hype now. Maybe there is too much supply.

On the other hand, a lot of 'bubble tea' places seem to be booming, like Easyway, Gong Cha, Cha Time etc.


----------



## Tyler Durden (16 March 2015)

Found out today one of my friends who works in superannuation was made redundant as part of a cost cutting exercise.


----------



## poverty (17 March 2015)

Tyler Durden said:


> Found out today one of my friends who works in superannuation was made redundant as part of a cost cutting exercise.




What does working in superannuation actually involve?


----------



## sptrawler (24 March 2015)

Woodside cut 300 jobs today, that's nothing compared to the end of the Gorgon Wheatstone construction.

https://au.news.yahoo.com/thewest/a/26782159/big-job-cuts-loom-at-chevron/

I think there should be a concerted effort by the Greens and Labor, to force an increase in the job start allowance, as there will be a lot more people dependant on it.

It should be funded by an increase in the marginal tax rates, of those on a combined income of  more than $100,000.

If the marginal tax rates, above the lowest one, were increased by 5% most of our problems(regarding welfare) are solved.


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## rb250660 (25 March 2015)

sptrawler said:


> It should be funded by an increase in the marginal tax rates, of those on a combined income of  more than $100,000.
> 
> If the marginal tax rates, above the lowest one, were increased by 5% most of our problems(regarding welfare) are solved.




That's it, increase the tax on the people who pay the most tax. People like me in my industry often get fed with this and just move to the Middle East resulting in zero tax for the government. I pay enough tax per year to support 6 dole bludgers full time and you want more, help yourself...


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## qldfrog (25 March 2015)

increase marginal tax rate... 
just in case you do not know, we are now taxed in Australia at more than 50% above 180k;
(new extra med levy);
as a result i gave up; i now work one day a week.
Well paid but one day only; best move ever, the actual financial impact on my budget is minimal, life is great;
but my taxes to fund the deficit will reduce by 6 figures this year;
If I was younger, I would have moved overseas
definitively the way to go  
During that time glencore still not paying taxes but you pay part of their diesel bill.


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## Hodgie (25 March 2015)

sptrawler said:


> If the marginal tax rates, above the lowest one, were increased by 5% most of our problems(regarding welfare) are solved.




I find it unlikely that whoever proposes this policy would get into power. 5% is massive.


----------



## ROE (25 March 2015)

qldfrog said:


> If I was younger, I would have moved overseas
> definitively the way to go




The grass always greener on the other side, 2 years ago I watch an an american Economist interview
and a young person ask him what would he do if he is our age, he said he would move to Australia 

I been to a few places Australia still the best country to live in, clean air, proper rule of law, tax is good for everyone 
without a decent tax system there isn't a decent society.

I pay ten of thousand in capital gain each year and I gladly do it as Australia is still a great country.
but you can always move to Asia where you pay bugger all tax and there isnt a proper system to collect them
but you pay for everything else and you will see it is far better to pay tax to have a cilvil society than an under the table system


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## sptrawler (25 March 2015)

I know it sounds harsh, but if no one is willing to tighten up on welfare spending, it has to be funded.
There are limited ways to increase taxes that make them indexed. For example it has been suggested introducing a land tax system, but unless the value of that land increases at the rate of inflation its value diminishes.

Wages tend to follow inflation, the same as welfare payments, I know it sounds harsh, but it is reality. If you are going to supply a generous welfare, education and health system, you have to work out an ongoing way to fund it.

All these layoffs in the W.A mining sector are high paying, high taxing jobs, the loss in tax reciepts has to be picked up somewhere.
That's just to tread water.lol


----------



## qldfrog (25 March 2015)

sptrawler said:


> I know it sounds harsh, but if no one is willing to tighten up on welfare spending, it has to be funded.
> There are limited ways to increase taxes that make them indexed. For example it has been suggested introducing a land tax system, but unless the value of that land increases at the rate of inflation its value diminishes.
> 
> Wages tend to follow inflation, the same as welfare payments, I know it sounds harsh, but it is reality. If you are going to supply a generous welfare, education and health system, you have to work out an ongoing way to fund it.
> ...



no issue with the above: but Australia can not support its current welfare so taxes have to be increased GST, land tax as you say AND costs cuts;
You have a fundamental mistake in the post above:"Wages tend to follow inflation" that wastrue in Australia because of the past boom, ask any american or european if it was true in the last 20 y, feel free to check figures;
middle class is being crushed and salaries are not catching up (so my smile when the pension was indexed to average salary and not CPIortrayed as a victory for pensionner, one of the only tax cut this government has been able to pass)
ROE as a 20 to 35y old, you would be better off moving out of Australia financially if you can.
I also like how you say you pay 10 of thousand (and not hundred which believe me make a difference) in capital gain (aka effective tax rate of 25% max after discounts) yeap I have no problem paying 25 or 30% tax rate either, even 40% and would be full time working hard in that case.
I am not a hardcore neocon either, but the balance in the country has shifted (and will carry on i have no doubt)

and for the main thread:
Email this morning of a past colleague in dire need of a job (mining IT Brisbane as well)
Sadly nothing I can lead him to, mining or otherwise.One more 100k of tax lost for that budget, and probably the next, trouble is he is not willingly doing it.
And mining IT is not restrictive, could work in industry finance as easily, there are just no white collar jobs.


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## sptrawler (25 March 2015)

qldfrog said:


> and for the main thread:
> Email this morning of a past colleague in dire need of a job (mining IT Brisbane as well)
> Sadly nothing I can lead him to, mining or otherwise.One more 100k of tax lost for that budget, and probably the next, trouble is he is not willingly doing it.
> And mining IT is not restrictive, could work in industry finance as easily, there are just no white collar jobs.





I had an email this morning, it was about sponsoring a fifo, seems as though there is a scheme starting up, where you can donate money to sponsor a fifo until the resources sector picks up again.

I'm not sure if it was legitimate or not though. 

By the way I was being a bit tongue in cheek about the 5% tax increase, but it did generate some action on the thread.


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## Smurf1976 (25 March 2015)

qldfrog said:


> there are just no white collar jobs.




We've spent the past 25 years gutting practically every blue collar job in one way or another. Either the industry has gone altogether (manufacturing) or the work is outsourced to the lowest tender with zero job security as a result (particularly relevant to what happened with old government roads etc departments).

All of this was, of course, masterminded and implemented by managers and others sitting in offices. The workers on the tools know full well just how inefficient it is, but unfortunately it never was about efficiency despite all the hype of the 1990's about being "competitive" with the rest of the world.

Now it's the turn of office workers to face the same fate with a bit of a difference. If you want someone to drive a bus or fix a road, then they need to live within a reasonable distance of the bus depot and the roads. You can't really outsource bus driving to China (unless the company is dodgy enough to be into 457's). But for the white collar jobs, well, your jobs are going to India....

At some point we'll realise that all this isn't going to work in the long term.


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## waterbottle (25 March 2015)

Just introduce a land tax already geez


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## Wysiwyg (25 March 2015)

Smurf1976 said:


> All of this was, of course, masterminded and implemented by managers and others sitting in offices. The workers on the tools know full well just how inefficient it is, but unfortunately it never was about efficiency despite all the hype of the 1990's about being "competitive" with the rest of the world.



I knew there was a reason why Executive salaries are up to a hundred times their company workers average wage "per year". I don't understand why they think themselves as so f'n large.


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## Tyler Durden (25 March 2015)

poverty said:


> What does working in superannuation actually involve?




My friend was 'investing' using people's super funds.


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## qldfrog (26 March 2015)

waterbottle said:


> Just introduce a land tax already geez



land tax on home, no threshold...
that what is coming up and then a land tax equivalent if you do not own a place (renters)
yeap already in Singapore if I remember well and other countries
feel free to google....


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## Tyler Durden (31 March 2015)

I have a friend who works for a HR company, he wasn't very clear, but he said something about everyone in the company potentially being offered a redundancy (not sure how big the company is) due to the company losing a big contract.

Anyway, I like to check out various forums, and from time to time there's a thread asking what people's views on a recession are. I have noticed that probably around 75% of people think a recession is coming in the short to medium term. So I was wondering, do recessions occur even with the majority of people forecasting it? Can that attitude itself cause the recession? Or is it like a stock market crash where it takes most people by surprise?


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## Wysiwyg (31 March 2015)

Thanks for the reality check. I read an article about a 2015 recession and this last bit says it all.

The ducks are all lined up. A perfect storm approaches.


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## sptrawler (1 April 2015)

Tyler Durden said:


> I have a friend who works for a HR company, he wasn't very clear, but he said something about everyone in the company potentially being offered a redundancy (not sure how big the company is) due to the company losing a big contract.
> 
> Anyway, I like to check out various forums, and from time to time there's a thread asking what people's views on a recession are. I have noticed that probably around 75% of people think a recession is coming in the short to medium term. So I was wondering, do recessions occur even with the majority of people forecasting it? Can that attitude itself cause the recession? Or is it like a stock market crash where it takes most people by surprise?




The positions vacant section of the newspaper, becomes shorter than the comic strip.

Most people in a secure job, don't even realise a recession is happening, it is only when they have to find a job reality hits.

A few of my ex workmates, who are trade/ technical background, have been made redundant. They didn't realise how few jobs are available, until they need one. Now they are getting very nervous as D day arrives.

The technical recession, where the economy contracts over consecutive months, really means nothing.
Unemployment is the big issue. IMO


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## sptrawler (1 April 2015)

Here is another example of W.A's employment problem, Austal Ships to lay off 300.

http://www.abc.net.au/news/2015-04-...eir-jobs-as-shipbuilder-ends-contract/6364068

We are all looking forward to those new jobs, the NBN is going to create. 
You know the ones, over the net welding, online sparkie, internet connected scaffold.


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## sptrawler (10 April 2015)

The job situation keeps getting worse, but unemployment figures aren't moving, something doesn't add up.

https://au.news.yahoo.com/thewest/business/a/27046457/jobs-go-as-iron-ore-miner-halts-production/

https://au.news.yahoo.com/thewest/business/a/27046091/280-caterpillar-jobs-to-go-in-tasmania/


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## Smurf1976 (10 April 2015)

sptrawler said:


> The job situation keeps getting worse




Another 280 jobs gone in Burnie Tas.

Anyone who has visited Burnie in the past but hasn't been there for 20+ years would be truly shocked how it looks today.

N.W. Acid is long gone and demolished. So is Tioxide. So is the pulp (APPM, actually a paper and board factory but locals always called it the pulp). All closed and demolished. Now it's Caterpillar.

The once infamously polluted industrial town is neither polluted nor industrial these days. No more red water and white trees, no more foam on the beach and clouds of smoke billowing into the sky, no more acid raining down and rusting everything in sight. It's cleaner, no doubt about that benefit, but the social cost of long term mass unemployment has been truly terrible and just keeps getting worse unfortunately. Hundreds once worked at Tioxide, a quarter of the entire Burnie population, a lot of women as well as men, once worked at the pulp. Now another 280 jobs gone at Caterpillar.

Burnie symbolises everything that's gone wrong with Australia economically in my view. There's still a huge market for sulphuric acid, we still use paint, we still use photocopy paper and mines still need machinery. We still use all those things, we just don't make them here anymore. Where a huge factory making something of value for export once stood there is now a chain hardware store selling mostly imported products. So sad.


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## sptrawler (11 April 2015)

Also smurph with the drop in iron ore prices, W.A has had a rapid drop in royalties income. 
This added to the expected drop of gst to $30c in the dollar, is going to mean the W.A government, will have to borrow $500m to give to Tassie.

How is the economy looking at street level? Not good IMO.


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## sptrawler (11 April 2015)

sptrawler said:


> Also smurph with the drop in iron ore prices, W.A has had a rapid drop in royalties income.
> This added to the expected drop of gst to $30c in the dollar, is going to mean the W.A government, will have to borrow $500m to give to Tassie.
> 
> How is the economy looking at street level? Not good IMO.




Actually just read this article on the ABC, W.A treasurer sums it up pretty well. 
As Tassie shuts down and everyone moves onto welfare, the productive States have to pay more to fund it.

http://www.abc.net.au/news/2015-04-11/nahan-intensifies-attacks-on-smaller-states-over-gst/6385016


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## Wysiwyg (11 April 2015)

Smurf1976 said:


> Burnie symbolises everything that's gone wrong with Australia economically in my view. There's still a huge market for sulphuric acid, we still use paint, we still use photocopy paper and mines still need machinery. We still use all those things, we just don't make them here anymore. Where a huge factory making something of value for export once stood there is now a chain hardware store selling mostly imported products. So sad.



Maybe we are moving away from trades and labour toward a suit and tie economy where people talk for their money.


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## overlap (11 April 2015)

Smurf1976 said:


> Another 280 jobs gone in Burnie Tas.
> 
> Anyone who has visited Burnie in the past but hasn't been there for 20+ years would be truly shocked how it looks today.




We left Tassie over 15 years ago and the hollowing out of these areas is scary to see whenever we go back. I and may others got important career opportunities in hindsight off the back of those industries and I can't see any significant alternative underpinning for the local economies now.

The locals don't seem to notice. I guess you get used to gradual decline. Older folks aren't rich, but are set up OK. Younger folks have left or are sucking it up as best they can.

This says it all. I'm very familiar with the area being talked out. Spot on analysis.

http://www.idiottax.net/2014/08/when-you-have-no-economic-value.html


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## Smurf1976 (11 April 2015)

Wysiwyg said:


> Maybe we are moving away from trades and labour toward a suit and tie economy where people talk for their money.




To some extent we certainly are, but all that talking is sending money straight out of the country in most cases.

There's a huge economic difference between making cars (for example) and simply selling them. The former keeps money here, the latter sends it straight offshore in the hope that we can sell enough iron ore and coal to pay the bills. Not that mining has too much of a future - WA's iron ore reserves won't last to the end of this century at current extraction rates and it seems pretty obvious that the future for coal is limited in the long term too.

We're fast heading toward a situation where Sydney and Melbourne are the only places in Australia that are economically sustainable. Tassie has been basically stuffed economically since the 1980's, SA is in trouble now and it's not overly difficult to see that WA and Qld will eventually join that list in another 30 or so years time once the mines end up like Burnie's former factories and disappear one by one, never to be replaced.

If you look at Tasmania in particular, since European settlement the only time it has consistently performed well economically was the period 1916 - late 1970's on the back of heavy manufacturing industry. Prior to that it was agriculture and mining, they had their booms no doubt but overall didn't make the state wealthy. Since then it has become tourism, it creates a lot of jobs but the vast majority are low skill, low wage jobs compared to what's been lost in heavy industry. 

Looking back at what's gone over the past 40 years, it's a pretty long list. APPM Burnie, HAL, Papermakers, APPM Wesley Vale, Wander, Tioxide, NW Acid, Southern Aluminium, Coats Paton, Waverly Woolen Mills, Starwood, ACI, ACL, Stanley, APM Port Huon, Electrona, Blundstone. And those are just the "big" ones that come immediately to mind, there's plenty of smaller things or that I've forgotten.

Then there's things that still exist as such but which have radically downsized or moved to being an import operation rather than production. There were two gas production plants, now it all comes from Vic. The Hydro used to have 3000 construction workers but that's all gone now since there's nothing being built. TEMCO, Bell Bay Aluminium, the zinc works and Norske Skog (formerly ANM) are still running but have each shed 1000 - 2500 jobs from their peak. I doubt that anyone seriously expects that all of the "big 4" (which used to the "big 5" until APPM closed) will be here forever.

The state's image may well be of wilderness etc, but economically Tassie was extremely reliant on manufacturing. As the factories have gone one by one, high wage jobs have been replaced with, at best, lower wage service industry jobs. 

Much the same applies to SA really.


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## Smurf1976 (11 April 2015)

sptrawler said:


> Actually just read this article on the ABC, W.A treasurer sums it up pretty well.
> As Tassie shuts down and everyone moves onto welfare, the productive States have to pay more to fund it.




Tas and SA both suffer hugely from the absentee landlord problem, not just literally but politically as well.

The decisions which ultimately put an end to most manufacturing in Tas and SA weren't made in Hobart and Adelaide. They were made in Canberra and overseas, influenced heavily in Sydney and Melbourne. That's the crux of it. Both states were developed on the basis of an economic model which no longer applies due to decisions made elsewhere. 

WA won't keep their "per capita" view for too long if external forces lead to a stagnation and ultimate shutdown of the state's mining industry. Same with Qld. 

Sydney and Melbourne are really the only places in Australia that are somewhat in control of their own destiny. Everywhere else is ultimately at the mercy of decision makers elsewhere.


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## overlap (11 April 2015)

Meanwhile on a planet far, far away....

http://www.theadvocate.com.au/story/3004251/whiteley-angered-by-a-terrible-decision/?cs=87

http://www.theadvocate.com.au/story/3004254/flow-on-effect-tipped-to-hit-1000-workers/?cs=87


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## sptrawler (11 April 2015)

Smurf1976 said:


> Tas and SA both suffer hugely from the absentee landlord problem, not just literally but politically as well.
> 
> The decisions which ultimately put an end to most manufacturing in Tas and SA weren't made in Hobart and Adelaide. They were made in Canberra and overseas, influenced heavily in Sydney and Melbourne. That's the crux of it. Both states were developed on the basis of an economic model which no longer applies due to decisions made elsewhere.
> 
> ...




Agree with you smurph, the end result IMO, will be a huge drop in living standards. 

Our dollar at parity with NZ, tells the whole story, the markets don't see a viable economic model in Australia.

I will be very suprised if we don't see the Aussie $ back at 50c U.S, within the next five years. Not that it will help, manufacturing will never return, to past levels.


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## McLovin (11 April 2015)

Tasmania seems to have the trifecta of narrow economic base, poorly educated workforce and geographically isolated from the mainland.

And Jackie Lambie.


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## sptrawler (11 April 2015)

McLovin said:


> Tasmania seems to have the trifecta of narrow economic base, poorly educated workforce and geographically isolated from the mainland.
> 
> And Jackie Lambie.




Yes add to that a lovely picturesque landscape and reasonably priced housing, makes for a wonderful place to retire.

All you need is someone to provide the welfare, and essential services.

As smurph said, the minerals in W.A will be gone in this century, at current extraction rates.

Well my guess is they will be gone much quicker than that.
In the 1960's when I was a kid in the Pilbara, Hamersley Iron imported the Dart truck from the U.S it could carry 80ton.
Now, that is a baby, they could fill that with one shovel scoop.

In the next 10 to 20 years, machinery will be removing ore, at phenomenal rates.

Who pays Tasmania's welfare bill, when Australia is broke?

Lambie, like Shorten, Milne and the rest of the muppets need a reality check, absolute loonies.IMO


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## banco (11 April 2015)

sptrawler said:


> Yes add to that a lovely picturesque landscape and reasonably priced housing, makes for a wonderful place to retire.
> 
> All you need is someone to provide the welfare, and essential services.
> 
> ...




Given the Government/s seem to have been operating on the basis that mining was Australia's future it always seemed inconsistent that they were so intent on increasing the population through immigration which just meant the take per capita from Australia's mineral resources would be lower.


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## sptrawler (11 April 2015)

banco said:


> Given the Government/s seem to have been operating on the basis that mining was Australia's future it always seemed inconsistent that they were so intent on increasing the population through immigration which just meant the take per capita from Australia's mineral resources would be lower.




Yes, and that has been going on since the mid 1960's, when major resource reserves were found.
Why didn't the various Governments demand GM and Ford, expand their manufacturing to the world car platform? Instead of building the plants in Thailand and South Korea?

Well it is fairly obvious, it is a hard argument to win.

Why has all our manufacturing gone?
How do we get it back? If we don't get it back, how do we support our quality of life and welfare system?

I don't think either party has the answer, but I do think the coalition is the only one acknowledging the question.
Bill is dribbling away in the background, hoping everyone forgets the impotent time, they last spent in office.
More warm feelgood spending on $hit we can't afford.lol


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## Smurf1976 (11 April 2015)

sptrawler said:


> Yes, and that has been going on since the mid 1960's, when major resource reserves were found.




In short, we've trashed manufacturing in SA, Tas and with less consequence in Vic and NSW, pinning all our future plans on digging up coal, gas and iron ore in Qld and WA. It works as long as someone wants the ore and we've got enough easily accessed, high grade deposits left to sell. But it can't work forever - firstly because of resource limits, secondly because the writing is very clearly on the wall for coal in particular. 

It's like throwing in your job, and having your entire family do the same, because you won the lottery. Some years later the money's spent and then you're in trouble.

Back to the economy at the street level, thinking of people I know the majority I'd describe as "cautious" when it comes to money at the moment. Paying down debt or building up savings / investments is the order of the day, driven by concern about the future.


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## sptrawler (11 April 2015)

Smurf1976 said:


> In short, we've trashed manufacturing in SA, Tas and with less consequence in Vic and NSW, pinning all our future plans on digging up coal, gas and iron ore in Qld and WA. It works as long as someone wants the ore and we've got enough easily accessed, high grade deposits left to sell. But it can't work forever - firstly because of resource limits, secondly because the writing is very clearly on the wall for coal in particular.
> 
> It's like throwing in your job, and having your entire family do the same, because you won the lottery. Some years later the money's spent and then you're in trouble.
> 
> Back to the economy at the street level, thinking of people I know the majority I'd describe as "cautious" when it comes to money at the moment. Paying down debt or building up savings / investments is the order of the day, driven by concern about the future.




Yep, we're on the same page, some on the forum say $600k is a great retirement, I'm thinking kiss your ass goodbye with that much.

Unless the media wake up to the severity of our situation, and start to report logical non inflamitory economical analysis, we are in really deep $hit.

Most I know are only falling on their feet near retirement, due to inheritances, this won't be available for our kids.IMO

The Governments will have to re introduce inheritance taxes or death duties.IMO

The ridiculous situation in federal politics, will not allow measures to be put in place to allow  meaningful budget changes.

In the end it will require drastic action, death duties like the U.K 40% gives a real sugar hit, Keating got rid of them, easily re introduced.

Then gen Y really see how life was.lol

How does the old saying go? The first generation make it, the second generation enjoy it and the third generation blow it.

So how do we turn it around? we vote in Clive Palmer, Lambie a Rugby player and someone who really likes cars.lol

Obviously at street level, no one gives a $hit.Australia your standing in it.


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## sptrawler (12 April 2015)

Smurf1976 said:


> Back to the economy at the street level, thinking of people I know the majority I'd describe as "cautious" when it comes to money at the moment. Paying down debt or building up savings / investments is the order of the day, driven by concern about the future.




That's great untill you've lost your job. 
I think the proverbial is hitting the fan, when 45 yr old PSC's with diplomas in engineering can't get jobs.

That's scary and it's happening.


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## McLovin (12 April 2015)

sptrawler said:


> Why has all our manufacturing gone?
> How do we get it back? If we don't get it back, how do we support our quality of life and welfare system?





It's been gone for the better part of thirty years and the sky hasn't fallen in. If we'd kept manufacturing, sheltered as it was in the 1970s under sky high tariffs, we'd be where Argentina is now. It's not as though Australia was struggling until the mining boom -- far from it. While there will be a readjustment at the end of the boom (it has probably already started) I wouldn't be betting on the doomsday scenarios that get bandied about on this forum, all of which assume a steady state into the future, something that almost never plays out in reality.

All this talk about Tasmania, Tasmania has about 2% of the population living in it. It's hardly representative of Australia.

I guess a bit of panic is good, it gets the things that need to be done done.


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## sptrawler (12 April 2015)

McLovin said:


> It's been gone for the better part of thirty years and the sky hasn't fallen in. If we'd kept manufacturing, sheltered as it was in the 1970s under sky high tariffs, we'd be where Argentina is now. It's not as though Australia was struggling until the mining boom -- far from it. While there will be a readjustment at the end of the boom (it has probably already started) I wouldn't be betting on the doomsday scenarios that get bandied about on this forum, all of which assume a steady state into the future, something that almost never plays out in reality.
> 
> All this talk about Tasmania, Tasmania has about 2% of the population living in it. It's hardly representative of Australia.
> 
> I guess a bit of panic is good, it gets the things that need to be done done.




That is all true McLovin, the difference between the mid 60's and now, is the population was 12million now 24million.
Whether that proves a positive or a negative is yet to be seen, also your assumption that a silver bullet will be found, will become apparent over time.

Currently the only real information we have, is the knowledge that our lifestyle has to now, been funded by our manufacturing, mining a service industries.

The first has almost gone, the second has definite time limit and the third doesn't do much other than send money round in a circle.

Also to say Australia wasn't struggling before the mining boom, is somewhat incorrect.
Before the mining boom commenced in the mid 60's most middle class Australians really struggled.
Wages were low, most rented and to buy a house was a lifelong ambition. As a kid I remember my mother always struggling to make ends meet, actual meat on the table was a special treat.
There was no single mothers pensions and welfare was minimal.
There was nowhere near the affluence, we now enjoy.

Don't get me wrong I don't think it is all doom and gloom, but I do believe there needs to be a massive change in work ethic and endeavour. Necessity is the mother of invention.


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## Smurf1976 (12 April 2015)

McLovin said:


> It's not as though Australia was struggling until the mining boom -- far from it.




Unemployment was a chronic problem from the early 1980's until the mid-00's. The figures bounced around, but most of the time there was no shortage of people out of work and that's over a period of two decades.



> All this talk about Tasmania, Tasmania has about 2% of the population living in it. It's hardly representative of Australia.




The concern isn't so much about Tas per se, but that it represents what may well lie ahead for other states.

SA now looks to be clearly going down the same track that Tas has already gone down and for the same underlying reasons. Indeed if you look at unemployment right now, SA is in worse shape than Tas.

Looking further ahead, the fundamental economic base of Qld and especially WA, that is mining, is clearly not sustainable forever. WA is basically a two trick pony, iron and gas, with everything else small in comparison. Both seem to be reaching their realistic limits to growth now, the market isn't there for iron to expand and costs are becoming less competitive for gas. Then what? 

At least Tasmania manufactured everything from footwear and linen through to chemicals and paper. It took a lot of individual closures to bring about the economic trouble the state has experienced. In contrast, WA is far more dependent on two pillars than Tas ever was.

As for Qld, well they're more diversified than WA with a lot of agriculture and tourism. But mining, particularly coal, is nonetheless a huge thing in Qld and ultimately that can't continue forever. Without starting yet another debate about climate change, it seems fair to say that the writing is on the wall for coal in the longer term. Regardless of any science, the political direction is increasingly to move away from coal. 

The thread has gone a bit off the original topic, but the point being made is really about the future. If we don't manufacture and don't have growth in iron ore and coal, then the "Tasmania problem" suddenly becomes the "Tas, SA, WA and Qld" problem and that's too big to offset by means of wealth transfer through the taxation system. We can afford to prop up Tas and SA given their population size and of course many will relocate to get jobs elsewhere. But it's game over in a big way if WA and Qld join that list.


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## sptrawler (12 April 2015)

Getting back on thread, the problem at street level is, we are at the end of a major growth phase.

What do we have to show for it? lots of SS Comodore utes, heaps of Harley Davidsons and of course expensive housing.

What we don't have, is any increase in manufacturing capacity, one would expect from massive construction projects.

Now we are even prepared to allow O/S companies, to extract our gas offshore, how is that going to help at street level.

It's o.k talking about the next 'phase', that will generate growth, post mining boom.

But from the street, it sounds like people away with the fairy's, apologies to any fairy's no offence intended.

On a brighter note, GO FREO.


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## McLovin (13 April 2015)

Smurf1976 said:


> Unemployment was a chronic problem from the early 1980's until the mid-00's. The figures bounced around, but most of the time there was no shortage of people out of work and that's over a period of two decades.




I'm not sure I'd agree with that. The early 1980s was a dismal period economically for Australia. From the end of the '91 recession it was like being in a different economy. We barely felt the Asian financial crisis or the aftermath of September 11. There was no spike in unemployment and the long term downward trend in remained. We entered the mining boom as one of the richest countries in the world. So, respectfully, I disagree.

That's not to say Australia doesn't have problems in its labour market or that the decline in manufacturing and unskilled jobs didn't leave some people out. The unfortunate by-product of the upskilling of the labour force can be seen in south west Sydney, amongst other places. Finishing school in year 10 (or earlier) without any intention of further education is no longer an option.



Smurf1976 said:


> Then what?




I don't know, but an educated workforce is far more able to adapt than a poorly educated one. I don't believe that economies can't transform, but this will be a monumentally more difficult task for Tasmania than the mainland states. Australia doesn't live on the sheep's back anymore, thirty years ago our biggest non-resource export didn't exist as an industry, so I have a hard time beliving that SA/WA/Qld will do nothing.

Anyway, we are well off topic now, but an interesting discussion.


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## CanOz (13 April 2015)

McLovin said:


> It's been gone for the better part of thirty years and the sky hasn't fallen in. If we'd kept manufacturing, sheltered as it was in the 1970s under sky high tariffs, we'd be where Argentina is now. It's not as though Australia was struggling until the mining boom -- far from it. While there will be a readjustment at the end of the boom (it has probably already started) I wouldn't be betting on the doomsday scenarios that get bandied about on this forum, all of which assume a steady state into the future, something that almost never plays out in reality.
> 
> All this talk about Tasmania, Tasmania has about 2% of the population living in it. It's hardly representative of Australia.
> 
> I guess a bit of panic is good, it gets the things that need to be done done.




Great post mclovin!


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## qldfrog (13 April 2015)

McLovin said:


> Australia doesn't live on the sheep's back anymore, thirty years ago our biggest non-resource export didn't exist as an industry, so I have a hard time beliving that SA/WA/Qld will do nothing.
> 
> Anyway, we are well off topic now, but an interesting discussion.



and it is 
if I well remember a graph i saw in the AFR a month or so ago, last year export revenues were iron, coal some minerals and then FAR FAR FAR behind 
a bit of tourism
education as a service (aka the sale of australian residency visa against cash)
minor agricultural sales and a tiny bit of services
we are talking 1 to 8/10 ratios on the graph
So now that the sell price is basically cut in two for the huge majority of last year export what do you see able to take over?
What are we going to sell ? More visas?
and a country which can not sell but only import is doomed.
but you have a very good point about a bit of panic needed to move things;It will take decades to recover if we do IMHO


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## qldfrog (13 April 2015)

http://dfat.gov.au/trade/resources/trade-at-a-glance/Pages/top-goods-services.aspx
for the top export 2013 
2014 is even less balanced
then change that to crashed price for coal/iron ore and petroleum and you do not want to be Joe Hockey


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## Smurf1976 (13 April 2015)

McLovin said:


> I'm not sure I'd agree with that. The early 1980s was a dismal period economically for Australia. From the end of the '91 recession it was like being in a different economy. We barely felt the Asian financial crisis or the aftermath of September 11. There was no spike in unemployment and the long term downward trend in remained. We entered the mining boom as one of the richest countries in the world. So, respectfully, I disagree.




Some interesting charts here put it into perspective. http://www.budget.gov.au/2004-05/bp1/html/bst4-01.htm

Unemployment shot up after 1974, marking an end to about 35 years of continuously low unemployment around 2%. It went up again in the early 1980's to around 10%, briefly dipped down to 6% by the end of the 80's then promptly shot up again to about 11%, not coming back down to 6% again until around the year 2000. So with the exception of a year or two at the end of the 1980's, we had 20 years of unemployment in the 6 - 11% range.



> an educated workforce is far more able to adapt than a poorly educated one.




Agreed as a general principle, though there still need to be jobs in the first place.



> I don't believe that economies can't transform, but this will be a monumentally more difficult task for Tasmania than the mainland states. Australia doesn't live on the sheep's back anymore, thirty years ago our biggest non-resource export didn't exist as an industry, so I have a hard time believing that SA/WA/Qld will do nothing.




Tas has transformed to a significant extent, tourism is now easily the biggest job creator, but there's a scale issue. What on earth is WA going to do when the iron ore boom turns to bust? Bust as in outright production declines, not merely a fall in price as we're seeing at the moment? It will happen someday, and we're talking about close to a quarter of the entire country's exports there and that's not easily replaced. Closing a few factories in Tas and SA is a drop in the ocean compared to the scale of mining in WA.   

We've got somewhat off topic but it's an interesting discussion. Whilst I disagree on some points, I certainly do respect the alternative views. For that matter, I hope you're right and I'm wrong with this one.


----------



## qldfrog (13 April 2015)

Smurf1976 said:


> We've got somewhat off topic but it's an interesting discussion. Whilst I disagree on some points, I certainly do respect the alternative views. For that matter, I hope you're right and I'm wrong with this one.



same here 
I really hope both Smurf and I are wrong


----------



## sptrawler (13 April 2015)

I think it is a bit of a phurphy to say a greater number of students going on to uni is going to help.
Apparently the units are concerned about the lack of students doing science engineering mathematics and chemistry.
Apparently they are inundated with students wanting to do warm feel good courses.lol


----------



## nulla nulla (14 April 2015)

sptrawler said:


> I think it is a bit of a phurphy to say a greater number of students going on to uni is going to help.
> Apparently the units are concerned about the lack of students doing science engineering mathematics and chemistry.
> Apparently they are inundated with students wanting to do warm feel good courses. lol.




A problem facing recent Science graduates is a lack of employment opportunities. It seems that the pendulum has swung from not enough science graduates for the past employment demand levels, to too many graduates for the present employment opportunities. Science courses were at one point discounted to encourage enrollments. They are no longer discounted.


----------



## McLovin (14 April 2015)

Smurf1976 said:


> Some interesting charts here put it into perspective. http://www.budget.gov.au/2004-05/bp1/html/bst4-01.htm
> 
> Unemployment shot up after 1974, marking an end to about 35 years of continuously low unemployment around 2%. It went up again in the early 1980's to around 10%, briefly dipped down to 6% by the end of the 80's then promptly shot up again to about 11%, not coming back down to 6% again until around the year 2000. So with the exception of a year or two at the end of the 1980's, we had 20 years of unemployment in the 6 - 11% range.




But if you go back further then that period from the end of the War to 1974 is an outlier. Was there perhaps some post-War euphoria, massive infrastructure investment and the like?




> The unemployment rate has fluctuated throughout the century, with peaks and troughs closely reflecting movements in the economic cycle (graph 6.44). In 1906, unemployment stood at 6.7%, and fluctuated at around this rate (though it rose briefly to a little over 9% in 1915, and just over 11% in 1921) until 1929 when unemployment stood at 11.1%. The unemployment rate then increased rapidly to 19.3% in 1930, before reaching a peak of 29.0% in 1932, in response to the economic conditions of the Great Depression. This unprecedented high rate of unemployment persisted for two years, before the unemployment rate fell rapidly to below 10% by 1937. During World War II, unemployment in Australia reached a new low of 1.1%. This marked the beginning of a sustained period of low unemployment, with the unemployment rate generally remaining below 3% until the early 1970s.




http://www.abs.gov.au/AUSSTATS/abs@.nsf/Previousproducts/1301.0Feature Article142001

As an aside those ABS Year Books can be pretty interesting. Why don't they still gather stats on the "masculinity of illegimate births registered in Australia"?




Smurf1976 said:


> Agreed as a general principle, though there still need to be jobs in the first place.




Of course, but my point is the investment will tend toward a knowledgeable workforce. Tasmania lags the Eastern states by about 10-15 points when it comes to high school completion rates, iirc. It kind of limits the kind of industry that will see the state as an attractive proposition.



Smurf1976 said:


> Tas has transformed to a significant extent, tourism is now easily the biggest job creator, but there's a scale issue. What on earth is WA going to do when the iron ore boom turns to bust? Bust as in outright production declines, not merely a fall in price as we're seeing at the moment? It will happen someday, and we're talking about close to a quarter of the entire country's exports there and that's not easily replaced. Closing a few factories in Tas and SA is a drop in the ocean compared to the scale of mining in WA.




Again, I don't know what WA will do, but for the first time in Australia's history we're in the right part of the world. I do think talk of the end of mining is WA is somewhat premature. With current technology and prices there is 40-70 years (depending on whose forecasts you believe) of ore left. I would hate to make any sort of forecast of what the world will be like in 40-70 years, let alone try and forecast the demand/supply/price/extraction ability of a single mineral. Australia seems to squander its booms then get its act together once the **** hits the fan, this boom has played to the script so far.



Smurf1976 said:


> We've got somewhat off topic but it's an interesting discussion. Whilst I disagree on some points, I certainly do respect the alternative views. For that matter, I hope you're right and I'm wrong with this one.




Always good to hear others opinions.


----------



## McLovin (14 April 2015)

Smurf1976 said:


> Tas and SA both suffer hugely from the absentee landlord problem, not just literally but politically as well.




Picking up on this point, I agree with you smurf. We have a federation but the mindset in Canberra increasingly sees the states as a bothersome impediment to progress. Federations like Germany and the US where states have much more autonomy have much more decentralised populations with industry and jobs spread much more widely. Instead in Australia we have a bunch of premiers who go cap in hand each year to the Commonwealth, there is no competition, just net payers and net recipients and we end up with a bizarre discussion about welfare transfers between the states. 

I often wonder how much better states would be if they were given some autonomy over their revenue base and could compete with lower rates of tax etc for industry.


----------



## sptrawler (16 April 2015)

McLovin said:


> Again, I don't know what WA will do, but for the first time in Australia's history we're in the right part of the world. I do think talk of the end of mining is WA is somewhat premature. With current technology and prices there is 40-70 years (depending on whose forecasts you believe) of ore left. I would hate to make any sort of forecast of what the world will be like in 40-70 years, let alone try and forecast the demand/supply/price/extraction ability of a single mineral. Australia seems to squander its booms then get its act together once the **** hits the fan, this boom has played to the script so far.
> 
> 
> 
> Always good to hear others opinions.




Well I can tell you, W.A is going to look pretty ugly in the next six to twelve months. This will have a flow on to the rest of Australia, as W.A goes broke, the welfare to the other states, dries up.
It will be interesting to see, how many of our miners get bought up by China, as they run out of money.:1zhelp:

Funny how Sino steels operation, south of Karatha, is still ticking over at a production cost of $100/ton.

Seems like China, as Rudd would say, is "Rat $#cking us".lol


----------



## Smurf1976 (17 April 2015)

sptrawler said:


> Funny how Sino steels operation, south of Karatha, is still ticking over at a production cost of $100/ton.




Is that marginal operating cost of the already established mine?

Or is that the total cost including the original investment?


----------



## sydboy007 (18 April 2015)

Starting to see more and more homeless people in the Sydney CBD.

Not sure what the root cause would be.  Possibly the inflated rents driving people out of their shelter?

More exmpty / popup style stores around the Newtown area too.  Retail is definitely doing it very hard.

On the other hand cafes and restaurants seem to be doing quite nicely.


----------



## sptrawler (19 April 2015)

Smurf1976 said:


> Is that marginal operating cost of the already established mine?
> 
> Or is that the total cost including the original investment?




It definitely isn't the cost including original investment, original investment is around $9billion.


----------



## sptrawler (19 April 2015)

sydboy007 said:


> Starting to see more and more homeless people in the Sydney CBD.
> 
> Not sure what the root cause would be.  Possibly the inflated rents driving people out of their shelter?
> 
> ...




Yes, people seem to be taking a sugar hit, from take away food.

After the GFC, the  Muzz Buzz driveway was empty, it is still ticking over nicely at the moment.


----------



## Tyler Durden (19 April 2015)

sydboy007 said:


> Starting to see more and more homeless people in the Sydney CBD.




I have noticed this too. However, I thought maybe it was because some figured out how profitable just sitting on a busy street corner could be. If you walk onto the main streets in the CBD, you'll see almost all corners are taken by someone asking for money. These are gold spots in terms of busking.

I don't know how genuine their situations are, but it is starting to get a bit annoying how every time I walk out for lunch or walk to the bus stop, I have to pass at least three people asking for money.


----------



## sptrawler (19 April 2015)

Tyler Durden said:


> I have noticed this too. However, I thought maybe it was because some figured out how profitable just sitting on a busy street corner could be. If you walk onto the main streets in the CBD, you'll see almost all corners are taken by someone asking for money. These are gold spots in terms of busking.
> 
> I don't know how genuine their situations are, but it is starting to get a bit annoying how every time I walk out for lunch or walk to the bus stop, I have to pass at least three people asking for money.




Well you could check out how profitable it is, take some annual leave and try it.

I'm not being funny, I've heard, it pays well.

It may be an interesting project.


----------



## qldfrog (21 April 2015)

sptrawler said:


> Well you could check out how profitable it is, take some annual leave and try it.
> 
> I'm not being funny, I've heard, it pays well.
> 
> It may be an interesting project.



well went early to brisbane CBD yesterday and saw a surprisingly high amount of homeless sleeping in the street (on a cold and rainy miserable day) Probably guarding their corner position?
I would not try it.....
Some are professional buskers in that trade for year: you see them every day years after years, but a lot of new comers as well


----------



## sydboy007 (21 April 2015)

Was quite shocked to see a small ten city in Belmore Park near Sydney Central station.  At least 20 tents, some large enough to hold 3 or 4 people, others like those single person tents.

I fear we're heading towards homelessness like in San Francisco or New York.


----------



## sptrawler (21 April 2015)

sydboy007 said:


> Was quite shocked to see a small ten city in Belmore Park near Sydney Central station.  At least 20 tents, some large enough to hold 3 or 4 people, others like those single person tents.
> 
> I fear we're heading towards homelessness like in San Francisco or New York.




With the cost of housing and investors chasing a reasonable rate of return, it is going to become more and more difficult.
Also add to this the lower skilled jobs disappearing in manufacturing, and it is very likely we will end up like the U.S.
The U.K has a similar problem, but has an abundance of cheap high density housing. They still have a lot of homeless along the embankment in London, that wouldn't be fun in winter.

The Australian Governments will to have to address it, sooner or later.

In Perth they are putting in a lot of high density social housing, around train stations, this can end up bringing about its own problems.

It really is a downfall of the capitalist system, as prices escalate and jobs go to who can do it cheapest, many in society are left behind.

This is why IMO, it is imperative people start planning for their financial independence, as soon as they start work.


----------



## So_Cynical (21 April 2015)

sydboy007 said:


> Was quite shocked to see a small ten city in Belmore Park near Sydney Central station.  At least 20 tents, some large enough to hold 3 or 4 people, others like those single person tents.




i work in the city and pass this park 5 or 6 times per day, i too have watched in bemusement this growing tent city mostly occupied by persons of indigenous origin, have also watched in bemusement the weekly council rubbish sweep that disposes of unoccupied tents.

Not every tent is occupied, not every tent houses 3 or 4 people, there are a lot of homeless in the City, not a new thing.


----------



## Smurf1976 (21 April 2015)

From a moral perspective, the problem of homeless people on the street just shouldn't be happening in Australia.

We're a wealthy country and ought to be able to avoid this outcome. And that doesn't mean "moving them on" or otherwise hiding it, it means jobs and affordable housing.


----------



## sptrawler (21 April 2015)

Smurf1976 said:


> From a moral perspective, the problem of homeless people on the street just shouldn't be happening in Australia.
> 
> We're a wealthy country and ought to be able to avoid this outcome. And that doesn't mean "moving them on" or otherwise hiding it, it means jobs and affordable housing.




Unfortunately with a welfare system that is self managed, not everyone is going to spend it well.

The opposite where the Government supply food and housing, isn't acceptable either, so it goes into the too hard basket.


----------



## Tyler Durden (21 April 2015)

sptrawler said:


> Well you could check out how profitable it is, take some annual leave and try it.
> 
> I'm not being funny, I've heard, it pays well.
> 
> It may be an interesting project.




I have thought about doing this for a while, but just never got around to it. I'd have to do it away from the city though, last thing I'd want is someone from work to recognise me lol.


----------



## So_Cynical (21 April 2015)

Smurf1976 said:


> From a moral perspective, the problem of homeless people on the street just shouldn't be happening in Australia.
> 
> We're a wealthy country and ought to be able to avoid this outcome. And that doesn't mean "moving them on" or otherwise hiding it, it means jobs and affordable housing.




The homeless of Sydney are generally incapible of the simplest of things, like showing up for work consistantly and at the correct time...that simple.


----------



## Smurf1976 (22 April 2015)

So_Cynical said:


> The homeless of Sydney are generally incapible of the simplest of things, like showing up for work consistantly and at the correct time...that simple.




In that case the number of such people should not change in response to economic conditions, since they will never be employed.

Previous posts in this thread imply an increase in numbers. Presumably, at least some of those people were previously employed or otherwise managing to put a roof over their heads.


----------



## McLovin (22 April 2015)

So_Cynical said:


> The homeless of Sydney are generally incapible of the simplest of things, like showing up for work consistantly and at the correct time...that simple.




Or they have mental health problems and/or are substance abusers. There's a whole raft of reasons that people become homeless, it's not common for the root problem to be unaffordable rent and lack of jobs, at least in Sydney. If it was sheer laziness they'd be on the dole.

I could just as easily, and probably more accurately, attribute the anecdoctal observations of an increase in homeless in Sydney as being a by-product of the ice epidemic. It certainly fits in with the mid-90s heroin epidemic.


----------



## sptrawler (22 April 2015)

This is the flip side of the homeless situation.

https://au.news.yahoo.com/thewest/wa/a/27267053/12-7m-damage-to-public-housing/

You have people who can't afford rent, then you have others who get cheap rent and give everyone the 'bird'.

I can't understand why people don't appreciate and look after subsidised housing.

I have worked and lived in remote areas of W.A ,when I saw what happened to public housing, I just shook my head in wonderment.
Then the same people, who wreck them, are on t.v showing the state of the houses they have to live in.

Welfare is a double edged sword, the more people get of it, the more they expect it, the less they appreciate it.IMO

You have to have it, but maybe the way it is metered out requires adjusting. 
One thing for sure the way it is distributed at the moment, is no longer working well.:1zhelp:


----------



## bbchevrolet (22 April 2015)

There has been public outcry up here about a trial of a welfare debit card system. The recipient can only spend the money on the card on approved goods and services. I believe alcohol stores etc will not accept the card.

Here's a couple of articles recently about the card from our local paper:
http://www.townsvillebulletin.com.a...re-in-townsville/story-fnjfzprw-1227273821832

http://www.townsvillebulletin.com.a...h-a-welfare-card/story-fnjfzqwh-1227301509176

http://www.townsvillebulletin.com.a...jobs-not-welfare/story-fnjfzprw-1227310912844


----------



## So_Cynical (22 April 2015)

Smurf1976 said:


> In that case the number of such people should not change in response to economic conditions, since they will never be employed.




These people are at the margins of society, when employers are desperate the marginal are more employable and therefore less visible...i have been working in Sydney city for 12 months in my new job, see many many homeless everyday, even talk to a few of them and haven't noticed an increase.

Very late at night and very early in the morning, the times when i often work the homeless are very visible because the usual city crowds are gone and you are left with the workers, the homeless and the drunks.



McLovin said:


> Or *they have mental health problems and/or are substance abusers.* There's a whole raft of reasons that people become homeless, it's not common for the root problem to be unaffordable rent and lack of jobs, at least in Sydney. If it was sheer laziness they'd be on the dole.




Mental health, substance abuse and indigenousness seem to be the big 3 drivers of homelessness.


----------



## Smurf1976 (22 April 2015)

sptrawler said:


> I can't understand why people don't appreciate and look after subsidised housing.




Some do appreciate the help and look after what they're provided with extremely well. Others absolutely trash the place unfortunately. There's always a few boarded up (burnt out) public houses in certain suburbs. By the time they fix them, someone sets another one on fire.

Here in Tas a lot of the public housing has (or had) a wood fire for winter warmth. They don't put them in now, or repair even minor faults with the wood heaters, because unfortunately some tenants do really silly things. Think in terms of ripping out and burning the skirting boards for fuel or using petrol to start the fire then burning the house down when it goes 'boom'. So gas or electric heating it is, the downside being that those who would use a wood fire sensibly and look after the place are forced to miss out on a cheap means of keeping warm.


----------



## sptrawler (29 April 2015)

Smurf1976 said:


> Some do appreciate the help and look after what they're provided with extremely well. Others absolutely trash the place unfortunately. There's always a few boarded up (burnt out) public houses in certain suburbs. By the time they fix them, someone sets another one on fire.
> 
> Here in Tas a lot of the public housing has (or had) a wood fire for winter warmth. They don't put them in now, or repair even minor faults with the wood heaters, because unfortunately some tenants do really silly things. Think in terms of ripping out and burning the skirting boards for fuel or using petrol to start the fire then burning the house down when it goes 'boom'. So gas or electric heating it is, the downside being that those who would use a wood fire sensibly and look after the place are forced to miss out on a cheap means of keeping warm.




Unfortunately it all leads back, to those at the bottom of the social structure, are there because they can't cope. Then we give them cheap housing and a welfare payment, then tell them to cope.
They mismanage the money and can't cope, so they improvise to heat the house.

It is pretty predictible.

But you can't step in and put in place financial structures for these people, because it undermines their independence to self determination.

When they struggle with self determination, it is because they need more money, another example of society gone mad.lol


----------



## moXJO (30 May 2015)

Very quiet start to the year with the storms turning things around for a lot of trades in the area. But all business owners were saying the same thing from Jan-Apr, no one was spending at all.

The other thing is late payments have blown out. I'm talking 3-4 months in some cases. Something we have not experienced since the early 90's. Economy has a serious cashflow problem. 

This is when we needed the govt stimulus not Rudds wasteathon in 2008. Personally I think Australia is shafted. High costs for everything, stupid red tape and a public service that is way over the top for spending, inefficiency and wages.
Time for a recessionary reset and it won't be pretty.


----------



## tech/a (31 May 2015)

Well we deal in both Adelaide and Melbourne.
My field is Civil Construction.
Our enquiry rate is as good as it's ever been.
Tenders indicate a great deal of new infrastructure 
Is coming from plan to fruition.

Our forward work order book is almost to the levels we
Had in 2007/8/9 before the smash down in 2010

We have been steadily employing since then.
I have business associates who have invested 
Strongly in Vic and are currently returning Adelaide
Figures in the first 12 mths in Melbourne.

But on the other hand I agree the retail sector is struggling
Friends in Advertising Agencies,the Retail sector,Financial Sector
And some service industries all report down sizing and a constant
Struggle to gain market share.

It appears the big end of town is smashing many small business owners.
The Coles/Woolies/WestFarmers of the world.

A dynamic shift in the way business is now conducted also has a lot to do with it
Online has killed many retail ventures but has spawned many more.

The challenge of business is forever evolving----so to do those who choose to be
A part of it.
There are always casualties that won't change.
I've been in business fir 40 years and it's always been a challenge.
I can't remember when it was all roses.
There are better times than others but those who don't answer the challenges year in year out will
Perish
Regardless of business type or sector.

You must evolve.


----------



## sptrawler (1 June 2015)

tech/a said:


> Well we deal in both Adelaide and Melbourne.
> My field is Civil Construction.
> Our enquiry rate is as good as it's ever been.
> Tenders indicate a great deal of new infrastructure
> ...




Well I'll give you the tip, tech/a, the bottom end of town is getting ugly.

They want accommodation, they want lifestyle, they want social drink and drugs, they just lack money.

It will end badly, we can't ask people to take responsibility, we just ask why the Government failed them.

The war cry now is "it's not my fault, I didn't have the support I needed".

Well best of luck trying to sort that self centred, selfish, arrogant perception out.

But hang on, we will sort out gay marriage, like that is an issue worth air time.lol


----------



## tech/a (2 June 2015)

Yeh I hear you.

Too soft in areas where you need to be tough.
Comes back and bites you.

Ill look after my patch---that's all I can do.


----------



## sydboy007 (2 June 2015)

3 more empty shops in my area now.

Seems if you're not a cafe or cheap restaurant there's not much chance of surviving.

Seems it's as much pop up shops on short leases as anything these days.

Would hate to be paying rent if competing against online businesses.


----------



## sptrawler (2 June 2015)

sydboy007 said:


> 3 more empty shops in my area now.
> 
> Seems if you're not a cafe or cheap restaurant there's not much chance of surviving.
> 
> ...




That is for sure.

A neighbour of mine imports furniture, he was telling me the rents that some of his retailers pay, it is amazing they aren't all bankrupt.

Apparently it is pretty hard to break a lease, so they just have to tough it out.


----------



## sinner (2 June 2015)

sydboy007 said:


> 3 more empty shops in my area now.
> 
> Seems if you're not a cafe or cheap restaurant there's not much chance of surviving.




+1 to that!

I live in the Inner-West of Sydney and spend a lot of my free time walking around. 

Have definitely noticed an increase in the "Melbournisation" of Newtown, in the sense that hipster joints selling trendy coffee and trendy foods and hipster catering food joints like Thai/Indian/etc, booming while everyone else is getting killed. 

Soooo many shops have gone up for lease in the last ~2 months.


----------



## sptrawler (3 June 2015)

Well at street level, WBC and WOW share prices, are back in the region they were in 2009, post GFC.

So are all the whingers, borrowing cheap money to jump in, or are they going to say the baby boomers had all the opportunities we didn't have.

Funny isn't it, opportunity is relative, but it can only be seen in hindsight.


----------



## sinner (4 June 2015)

sptrawler said:


> Well at street level, WBC and WOW share prices, are back in the region they were in 2009, post GFC.
> 
> So are all the whingers, borrowing cheap money to jump in, or are they going to say the baby boomers had all the opportunities we didn't have.
> 
> Funny isn't it, opportunity is relative, but it can only be seen in hindsight.




Funny isn't it, how people gloss over something as simple as using a real adjusted price chart for two of Australias largest listed corporations to try and make a point about "whingers" in a thread about the street level economy...

How about the real chart then...


----------



## sptrawler (13 June 2015)

sinner said:


> Funny isn't it, how people gloss over something as simple as using a real adjusted price chart for two of Australias largest listed corporations to try and make a point about "whingers" in a thread about the street level economy...
> 
> How about the real chart then...
> 
> ...




Funny isn't it, that people who criticise only put up half the equation.

I said they were cheap when comparing borrowing costs, I actually don't give a rats whether, people think a buying opportunity is presenting itself.

What I was alluding to, was opportunity presents itself at the worst possible time, usually when everyone is $hit scared.
The problem is, those who criticise, usually don't avail themselves of opportunity, then criticise those who did.

At street level, I think is is getting really nasty, many in their 50's are realising they aren't going to make the finishing line.

Also using a suppressed zero graph, to illustrate a biased outcome, is a bit sad.IMO


----------



## Tyler Durden (21 June 2015)

Heard from an inside source that Fitness First is not doing too well. Will be interesting to see how this pans out...


----------



## Smurf1976 (21 June 2015)

I rarely watch commercial TV but did watch last night. Something I noticed was that a substantial portion of advertising is either home building companies or concert tickets. Put together, they were probably at least a third, maybe half, of the total ads on TV at that time.

That gets me thinking. If builders were flat out then would they be advertising for more work? Maybe, but I'm assuming they're not so busy? And if a concert sells out, well then you don't need to keep promoting it, right? Both could be indicators that spending on building, renovation and non-essential things like concerts isn't doing too well?

As I said, I rarely watch commercial TV but I don't recall so many ads for builders etc in the past.


----------



## Tyler Durden (7 July 2015)

A few recent observations:

1. The discount store on Pitt St in Sydney near Park St has closed down. It had been there for at least a few years.

2. McDonald's trying to phase in touch screen menus for customers to self order. If this takes off, a lot of teens would be out of a job.

3. 85 ° cake shop fined for paying workers $12/hour. I always questioned how these Asian businesses could be profitable selling relatively low cost items, when rent and other costs of doing business are so high. I'd suspect that other similar businesses such as Breadtop, Gong Cha etc may be in a similar boat.


----------



## nioka (7 July 2015)

Tyler Durden said:


> A few recent observations:
> 
> 1. The discount store on Pitt St in Sydney near Park St has closed down. It had been there for at least a few years.
> 
> ...





 "85 ° cake shop fined for paying workers $12/hour. I always questioned how these Asian businesses"

That is the answer to a big problem. We are prepared to purchase imported goods from places where the wage is a few dollars a day yet we don't accept that it is fair to pay the same people that come here as a visitor $12 per hour. 

The only way to even up the score is to place tariffs on imports where the wages are low and enable Australian producers to compete on a level basis. OR Australian consumers should support Australian producers by buying Aussie brands. Take apples as an example. How can an Australian grower compete with overseas production if it costs as much to pay "pickers" as the fruit is worth at the farm gate.. 

Why cant teenagers get jobs; A tenant of mine wanted to give a 15 year old who wanted to earn some pocket money a Saturday job. The cost would have been over $22 per hour. The business didn't make that in profit. No job, That 15 year old is now in trouble with the law, something that may have been avoided IF he had an interest, earned a few bob and developed a work ethic. 

Remember that most small businesses are price TAKERS not price MAKERS.


----------



## sptrawler (7 July 2015)

nioka said:


> "85 ° cake shop fined for paying workers $12/hour. I always questioned how these Asian businesses"
> 
> That is the answer to a big problem. We are prepared to purchase imported goods from places where the wage is a few dollars a day yet we don't accept that it is fair to pay the same people that come here as a visitor $12 per hour.
> 
> ...




It's all about maintaining a first world lifestyle, with a third world economy, not so dissimilar to Greece.

It is just a matter of time.IMO

Suggest we can't support these wages, welfare and lifestyle levels, and see how everyone will shout you down.

Best thing you can do, is make sure you squirrel away as much as you can.

IMO things will get a lot worse, before they get better.

Over here in WA Perth wages for services are high, due to free flowing money from cashed up fifo's, that is drying up.

Knock on effects will ripple through in the next 6 months.IMO


----------



## nioka (8 July 2015)

sptrawler said:


> It's all about maintaining a first world lifestyle, with a third world economy, not so dissimilar to Greece.
> 
> It is just a matter of time.IMO
> 
> ...




I expected to get howled down on this forum. However much the truth hurts it still remains the truth. There is one difference we have here with Greece. A lot of the hard working Greeks came to Australia after the war and brought a work ethic with them, leaving Greece with a shortage in that country. I'm not sure if we are a mini Greece or Greece is a mini Australia when it comes to debt. Their debt compared to GDP may be worse than ours but they still own more of their national assets than we do. We have nothing much left to sell when it comes to National assets. :1zhelp:


----------



## sptrawler (8 July 2015)

nioka said:


> I expected to get howled down on this forum. However much the truth hurts it still remains the truth. There is one difference we have here with Greece. A lot of the hard working Greeks came to Australia after the war and brought a work ethic with them, leaving Greece with a shortage in that country. I'm not sure if we are a mini Greece or Greece is a mini Australia when it comes to debt. Their debt compared to GDP may be worse than ours but they still own more of their national assets than we do. We have nothing much left to sell when it comes to National assets. :1zhelp:




Can't argue with that.

Also China will be buying up a lot of our struggling businesses. 

Funny isn't it, we cranked up output, in reply to China's cry for resources.

Now they don't want them, they want to buy up the companies, and own the resources.

Wow that's clever.lol

It doesn't just apply to resource companies either, they will be buying any valuable asset, that is struggling.IMO

It is difficult to ask for a level playing field, when one side is publicly funded, and the other has a central governments bankroll.

It will end up having a huge effect on our standard of living, but I for one, have no idea how we can stop it.


----------



## waterbottle (8 July 2015)

sptrawler said:


> Can't argue with that.
> 
> Also China will be buying up a lot of our struggling businesses.
> 
> ...




Not if foreign ownership laws get changed. There's definitely been more talk about overseas buyers snapping up local housing and there is some political movement trying to stop it happening to AgriBusiness i.e. Katter


----------



## Smurf1976 (8 July 2015)

Another example of where we've gone wrong.

http://www.themercury.com.au/busine...it-over-gas-deal/story-fnj6eg8g-1227433163254

It has been said that Qld will lose a lot of construction jobs as the LNG plants are completed. Nationally, we're going to lose a whole lot more once they start actually exporting gas.

However many jobs are created through gas export, we'd have a whole lot more if we used it here to manufacture things instead of just selling the resource.


----------



## sptrawler (8 July 2015)

Smurf1976 said:


> Another example of where we've gone wrong.
> 
> http://www.themercury.com.au/busine...it-over-gas-deal/story-fnj6eg8g-1227433163254
> 
> ...




That would by why onshore processing would be better, but neither Federal Government cared about that, as long as we get something we're happy.

Loser mentality.IMO

There should be some foreign investment rule put in place, to stop major importers of our resources, tanking the price to mop up our companies.

It boils back to market manipulation, which is difficult to combat, when you are fighting for free trade.


----------



## sydboy007 (8 July 2015)

sptrawler said:


> Can't argue with that.
> 
> Also China will be buying up a lot of our struggling businesses.
> 
> ...




You mean the China FTA that allows Chinese companies the same rights to buy up in Australia as NZ / UK / USA?

The same China FTA that allows workers in the below occupations from proving they have the appropriate skills when the Chinese companies make a claim to be investing in a large infrastructure project and entitled to increased labour flexibilities for specific projects:

Automotive electricians;
General electricians;
Specialist electricians;
Cabinetmakers;
Carpenters;
Carpenters and joiners;
General motor mechanics;
Diesel motor mechanics;
Motorcycle mechanics; and
Joiners.

What other country would allow it's leadership to sell them out so fully?  Why do Australian workers have to compete directly in their own country with imported Chinese labour?

The skills shortages report from the Department of Employment, released in March, also revealed that _“employers continued to recruit skilled workers with little difficulty”, “consistent with the softness in the labour market”. Further, “with the demand for skilled workers relatively subdued over the past few years, and historically high numbers of graduates entering the labour market from both higher education and vocational education and training, long standing shortages across many occupations have been addressed”._


----------



## sptrawler (8 July 2015)

sydboy007 said:


> You mean the China FTA that allows Chinese companies the same rights to buy up in Australia as NZ / UK / USA?
> 
> The same China FTA that allows workers in the below occupations from proving they have the appropriate skills when the Chinese companies make a claim to be investing in a large infrastructure project and entitled to increased labour flexibilities for specific projects:
> 
> ...




Well I am sure this has been happening prior to this Government taking office, I don't agree with it, but to lay it all at the feet of this Government is misleading.

As for other Countries workers, having to compete with imported cheap labour, Germany has been using cheap Turkish workers for years. In their car manufacturing plants.

It is`a bit like the extension I'm putting on my house, the gyprock fixers are all Chinese the sanders are Chinese, they are working for an Aussie company.

I needed some extra gyprock work done, so asked an aussie guy how much for a weekend job? He came in 30% higher than the bonafide company.

Then the guy rendering the outer wall asked if  I wanted the outer wall texture coated $2,200. The company that texture coated the upper floor, quoted $1,300.

I think a wage shock is comming.

Another example, the roof guys putting on the colour bond, were N.Zers, I asked them how they were finding it here.

They said it's great, in Auckland they were paying $500/wk rent and only earning $15/hr, doing the same job.

Maybe everyone is living in a fools paradise, I think they are.


----------



## Tyler Durden (16 July 2015)

Hooters in trouble:



> Several companies with ties to entertainment venue Hooters Australia have fallen into voluntary administration, including five companies linked to individual restaurants in New South Wales and Queensland.
> 
> According to notices published by the Australian Securities and Investments Commission, Hoot Australia entered voluntary administration on Tuesday, with Neil Cussen and David Lombe from Deloitte appointed to manage the administration.
> 
> ...




http://www.smartcompany.com.au/fina...alia-fall-into-voluntary-administration.html#


----------



## Klogg (16 July 2015)

Smurf1976 said:


> However many jobs are created through gas export, we'd have a whole lot more if we used it here to manufacture things instead of just selling the resource.




We could, but the reality is the cost of labour is far too high in Australia. I imagine as the dollar falls further, this will become less of an issue.


----------



## craft (16 July 2015)

Tyler Durden said:


> Hooters in trouble:




Hooters gone Bust


----------



## sptrawler (16 July 2015)

craft said:


> Hooters gone Bust




Yep, apparently they couldn't stay abreast of their balance sheet.


----------



## DeepState (16 July 2015)

sptrawler said:


> Yep, apparently they couldn't stay abreast of their balance sheet.




Perhaps they were anticipating a bounce in demand?  But, ultimately, the demand for bounce did not materialise as had been hoped?


----------



## sptrawler (16 July 2015)

Yes the underlying support definitely wasn't there, which ultimately ended up in a declining product.

Back on topic, I was in the city today(Perth), I couldn't believe the lack of traffic. The roads were absolutely dead, I didn't even have to wait for the green man, to cross the roads amazing.

I haven't seen anything like it for years.


----------



## Smurf1976 (16 July 2015)

Klogg said:


> We could, but the reality is the cost of labour is far too high in Australia. I imagine as the dollar falls further, this will become less of an issue.




Trouble is that by committing virtually all the gas to export, we won't be using it to manufacture things no matter how far the AUD drops.

Big users are having trouble securing long term gas supply at _any_ price, well at least any price that's even remotely sensible, these days. We've thus effectively locked ourselves out of any sort of manufacturing that needs a lot of gas, and that covers a lot of sorts of manufacturing, at least unless someone's able to pay enough for gas to divert it away from export (and then there's the issue of there being contracts covering that export volume).

AUD at 70 cents won't do it. 30 cents maybe, but that's getting rather drastic.


----------



## Smurf1976 (17 July 2015)

sptrawler said:


> Back on topic, I was in the city today(Perth), I couldn't believe the lack of traffic.




Is it school holidays in WA at the moment?

It is here in Tas, and there's a very noticeable lack of traffic on major roads during commuter times. Always happens that way - it's not only the kids who are on holiday, quite a few parents take that time off from work too hence the drop in traffic.


----------



## sptrawler (17 July 2015)

Smurf1976 said:


> Is it school holidays in WA at the moment?
> 
> It is here in Tas, and there's a very noticeable lack of traffic on major roads during commuter times. Always happens that way - it's not only the kids who are on holiday, quite a few parents take that time off from work too hence the drop in traffic.




Good point, I wouldn't have thought it would make such a dramatic difference.


----------



## sinner (19 July 2015)

Here is a "street level" thought I had today while walking about the Inner West of Sydney.

Basically everyone knows about the "aging population" demographics, and so they are all investing in healthcare and retirement REITS and whatever.

But, for those who sometimes have the freedom to go to the local shopping complex during a weekday will have noticed, basically it is the aged population that is keeping the consumer economy going from 9-5pm while younger demographics are slaving away in their offices!

So, is the local Woolworths/Coles/Westfield also an interesting "aging population" demographics play? Daycare for the older generation with not much happening?


----------



## qldfrog (20 July 2015)

sinner said:


> But, for those who sometimes have the freedom to go to the local shopping complex during a weekday will have noticed, basically it is the aged population that is keeping the consumer economy going from 9-5pm while younger demographics are slaving away in their offices!



Being without contract, and my wife made redundant a fortnight ago [as well as her whole team working in an office for a Qld organisation], we "enjoyed" and shared that feeling about 60y+ at the mall during the week; actually many younger too here in qld...
(that is for the street lkvel snapshot)
but the question is are these pensionners really spending much, or even anything? I do agree they are where the disposable wealth is and not in taxed job slaves /younger couples who are feeding CBA dividends, but the spending is still minimal.


----------



## sinner (20 July 2015)

qldfrog said:


> Being without contract, and my wife made redundant a fortnight ago [as well as her whole team working in an office for a Qld organisation], we "enjoyed" and shared that feeling about 60y+ at the mall during the week; actually many younger too here in qld...
> (that is for the street lkvel snapshot)
> but the question is are these pensionners really spending much, or even anything? I do agree they are where the disposable wealth is and not in taxed job slaves /younger couples who are feeding CBA dividends, but the spending is still minimal.




Good perspective from QLD, thanks.

Around here, what I have noticed is that in general almost all the shops are only open between 9-6pm. By the time wage slaves knock off work and make their way to Broadway Shopping Centre, Marrickville Metro or other nearby shopping precints, the only thing that still open are:

* Woolworths/Coles
* McDonalds/KFC
* Kmart/BigW/Target
* Nearby resturaunts/bars/etc

So surely, to the extent that businesses aren't shuttering their doors and still paying rent, the cashflow in their books must be coming from the aging demographic?


----------



## sptrawler (21 July 2015)

Smurf1976 said:


> Is it school holidays in WA at the moment?
> 
> It is here in Tas, and there's a very noticeable lack of traffic on major roads during commuter times. Always happens that way - it's not only the kids who are on holiday, quite a few parents take that time off from work too hence the drop in traffic.




Well smurph, went back into Perth CBD today, to pick up the Chinese visa. School holidays are over.

Traffic still really low, there is definitely a downturn in the CBD.IMO


----------



## sptrawler (29 July 2015)

Things don't look as though they will improve, any time soon, in the mining sector.

http://www.watoday.com.au/business/...e-job-cuts-mine-closures-20150728-gimm93.html

Let's hope the housing sector doesn't fall over.


----------



## nioka (29 July 2015)

There used to be a saying during the depression, " Things are crook at Ballarook and they are 0ut of work at Bourke". Things ARE crook. Here is one aspect.

I own a commercial property that is tenanted. The tenant wants out and cant sell the business because it is no longer profitable. Last week we tried to auction the property with vacant possession. After extensive advertising we got no bid. This is prime real estate, large block with 3 street frontages and great exposure. We were prepared to take a "hit" of around $200,000 to sell.

 Talking to one agent he told me that he has several businesses listed for sale and none of them are capable of making a decent wage. Told me that he went to list a business last week. The owner's partner was "minding" the shop while to business owner was "over the road" working at a coffee shop to earn some cash to pay the rent on her own business. 

Things ARE crook.

Small businesses are plagued by people shopping and trying out for size and suitability and when they decide what they want they get on the internet for a better price. They are giving the service for someone else to make the sale.

If you are one of those that shop this way then don't expect the local business to still be there for your convenience.


----------



## sptrawler (29 July 2015)

nioka said:


> There used to be a saying during the depression, " Things are crook at Ballarook and they are 0ut of work at Bourke". Things ARE crook. Here is one aspect.
> 
> I own a commercial property that is tenanted. The tenant wants out and cant sell the business because it is no longer profitable. Last week we tried to auction the property with vacant possession. After extensive advertising we got no bid. This is prime real estate, large block with 3 street frontages and great exposure. We were prepared to take a "hit" of around $200,000 to sell.
> 
> ...




Your not an orphan nioka, a mate of mine sold up his business premises, couldn't sell his business despite it being there for 40 years.
There is some real shocks coming, to our way of life, that only those over 60 understand.IMO

Our saving grace is, we have a great climate, are geologically isolated and have a small population.

Someone will buy us. lol


----------



## Tyler Durden (29 July 2015)

I have noticed a few shops pop up which seem to specialise in catering for the Chinese, selling things like baby formula, vitamins, pills, and some other things you could get at places like Chemist Warehouse. They have a very basic set up, just shelves with products and prices. No decorations, no special design of the place, no loud advertisements, just a very basic shop that looks like it could move on at any moment.

They seem to be fairly popular with the Chinese, and I think their prices are a little bit better than places like Chemist Warehouse. Not sure how they do it, but yeah.

An example is one in Burwood near the train station, on the same road and side as Hungry Jacks.


----------



## sptrawler (29 July 2015)

Tyler Durden said:


> I have noticed a few shops pop up which seem to specialise in catering for the Chinese, selling things like baby formula, vitamins, pills, and some other things you could get at places like Chemist Warehouse. They have a very basic set up, just shelves with products and prices. No decorations, no special design of the place, no loud advertisements, just a very basic shop that looks like it could move on at any moment.
> 
> They seem to be fairly popular with the Chinese, and I think their prices are a little bit better than places like Chemist Warehouse. Not sure how they do it, but yeah.
> 
> An example is one in Burwood near the train station, on the same road and side as Hungry Jacks.




Might be a good opportunity, to get in at the ground level, silent partner and franchise.

It may be ahead of the bell curve, as Chinese seem to be very interested in Australia, as a clean product supplier.
One problem, I'm not sure they would want to share their profits.

Probably better off just learning mandarin first.


----------



## Joules MM1 (30 July 2015)

11:30am 	AUD 		Building Approvals m/m 		actual -8.2% 	forecast -0.8% 	prev 2.3%

month over month

http://www.forexfactory.com/

next happy hour, tomorrow, 11am ProdPrice Q/Q


----------



## sydboy007 (30 July 2015)

The shopping experience in Venezuela

[video=youtube_share;AiECWKxgD-Y]http://youtu.be/AiECWKxgD-Y[/video]


----------



## sptrawler (30 July 2015)

Qantas tells you what the economy is like at street level.

http://www.abc.net.au/news/2015-07-...rth-to-melbourne-downgrades-to-sydney/6661340


----------



## sptrawler (31 July 2015)

Joules MM1 said:


> 11:30am 	AUD 		Building Approvals m/m 		actual -8.2% 	forecast -0.8% 	prev 2.3%
> 
> month over month
> 
> ...




That is Australian building approvals, W.A is down 13% in June.

https://au.news.yahoo.com/thewest/a/29133498/investors-steer-clear-of-new-units/

A mate who is a brickie, said his price/brick had been dropped, and it was going to cost him $5k/ house.


----------



## tech/a (31 July 2015)

Adelaide.

I have 3 estimators looking at a surge in infrastructure and tenders for Apartments/Sub Divisions/Shopping Centres.
This is normal after 30 June but the size and quantity of projects is pleasing. Quite a bit in country areas.

We are employing.
Having said that there is a constant stream coming through the door looking for work.
To be honest the quality of person looking is well below those in our crews now.

Point is  from what I see good people are employed---well a lot of them.


----------



## sydboy007 (2 August 2015)

http://www.bloomberg.com/news/artic...enge-find-five-bartenders-for-each-lost-miner



> As China’s economy slowed, Australia lost 34,000 mining jobs in the 12 months through May while adding 53,000 accommodation and food services positions, according to data from the Bureau of Statistics. The problem is that annual wages in the hospitality industry -- including for those working part time -- average A$26,832 ($19,585). That’s a fraction of the A$134,000 in the mining industry.




Pretty much fits with why even the employed ain't feeling too flush with cash.


----------



## sptrawler (2 August 2015)

A Toll guy, dropped of a parcel the other day, I asked him how things are going since Japan Post have taken over.

He said heaps of changes and pay cuts imminent.


----------



## sydboy007 (3 August 2015)

Crunch time in QLD

http://www.miningaustralia.com.au/news/massive-lng-project-layoffs-on-curtis-island



> With the construction phase winding down for LNG projects on Curtis Island, key contractor Bechtel is laying off approximately 600 employees per month.
> 
> Gladstone Observer reported that camps have already begun the decommissioning phase, and that the company is looking at offloading equipment and machinery, including $9 million worth of vehicles.
> 
> ...




I think Kevin Berg is dreaming, but hope to be proved wrong.


----------



## Smurf1976 (3 August 2015)

sydboy007 said:


> I think Kevin Berg is dreaming, but hope to be proved wrong.




Given that the LNG projects are directly harming the metals processing industry in particular, via increased energy costs (and energy is a major cost in metals processing), I think you're right there. 

On the positive side, hopefully the revenue and royalties from the LNG does some good somewhere.


----------



## sydboy007 (3 August 2015)

Smurf1976 said:


> Given that the LNG projects are directly harming the metals processing industry in particular, via increased energy costs (and energy is a major cost in metals processing), I think you're right there.
> 
> On the positive side, hopefully the revenue and royalties from the LNG does some good somewhere.




like everything else we've piled on in with extra capacity just as demand wanes




We've yet to have the Chinese break contracts that are costing them billions due to the massive fall in spot prices.  Japanese power companies have already said no to early shipments from one of the new gas producers - they weren't contractually required to take the cargoes but have done so in the past.

LNG will make GDP growth look good, but there will be little to now profit from it for us.  Still waiting for the massive writedowns required.


----------



## sptrawler (12 August 2015)

This article in the "West Australian", tells you the state of the economy at street level.

https://au.news.yahoo.com/thewest/wa/a/29242790/police-blitz-as-suburban-crime-rises/

Stress levels rise, as cost of living rises and the economy weakens.IMO

Last month, home burglaries jumped by 18 per cent, car thefts by 18.5 per cent, theft by 21.1 per cent and property damage by 20.8 per cent.

There was also a major spike in domestic violence offences, up by an alarming 33.9 er cent.


----------



## sydboy007 (12 August 2015)

sptrawler said:


> This article in the "West Australian", tells you the state of the economy at street level.
> 
> https://au.news.yahoo.com/thewest/wa/a/29242790/police-blitz-as-suburban-crime-rises/
> 
> ...




WA has in many ways been in recession for 3+ years now.  State final demand has been negative every quarter since midish 2012.  That's not going to change until the CAPEX boom is finalised, then will probably barely grow for a period after.

The Roy Hill iron ore project will see 8,000 construction workers turn into 2,000 miners.  At Gorgon, 9,000 construction workers will turn into 400 gaseous technicians, whereas at Wheatstone, 6,500 workers will shrink to around 400.

Factor in the death of the iron ore juniors, eventual death of FMG and possibly Roy Hill and things ain't pretty.  

At least QLD has some tourism exports to partially help with the impending slump, though baristas don't earn nearly as much as a construction worker.


----------



## sptrawler (12 August 2015)

sydboy007 said:


> WA has in many ways been in recession for 3+ years now.  State final demand has been negative every quarter since midish 2012.  That's not going to change until the CAPEX boom is finalised, then will probably barely grow for a period after.
> 
> The Roy Hill iron ore project will see 8,000 construction workers turn into 2,000 miners.  At Gorgon, 9,000 construction workers will turn into 400 gaseous technicians, whereas at Wheatstone, 6,500 workers will shrink to around 400.
> 
> ...




I think I've been saying the same scenario for quite a while, I've lived here for over 50 years, seen the booms seen the busts.
The problem with this one is, the customer will end up owning the product, they have bottomless pockets.

I wouldn't be focussing on the best case scenario.


----------



## skyQuake (12 August 2015)

sptrawler said:


> I think I've been saying the same scenario for quite a while, I've lived here for over 50 years, seen the booms seen the busts.
> The problem with this one is, the customer will end up owning the product, they have bottomless pockets.
> 
> I wouldn't be focussing on the best case scenario.




I think twiggy would rather sink his own ship rather than let someone else steer it though.

Speaking of baristas...

http://www.bloomberg.com/news/artic...wn-as-government-bets-on-baristas-over-brains


----------



## sptrawler (12 August 2015)

skyQuake said:


> I think twiggy would rather sink his own ship rather than let someone else steer it though.
> 
> [/url]




Twiggy won't have any say, when they go broke.


----------



## Tyler Durden (13 August 2015)

Got into a taxi here in Sydney last night and noticed the driver was very young (looked earlier 20's). We got talking (extremely nice fellow) and found out that he had been in mining in Perth for two years then got made redundant and is now driving taxis in Sydney.


----------



## sydboy007 (25 August 2015)

another canary in the economic coal mine starting to look woozy

https://www.moodys.com/research/Moodys-Australian-auto-ABS-arrears-rose-in-Q2-2015-across--PR_332832



> Moody’s Investors Service says that the performance of Australian auto loan asset-backed securities (ABS) deteriorated in the second quarter of 2015. Specifically, 30-plus day delinquencies rose to 1.47% in June from 1.24% in March and 1.10% in June 2014.
> 
> Since 2010, arrears performance in the second quarter of every year typically remained stable or improved from the first quarter, because by the second quarter, delinquent borrowers have usually caught up on their payments, following a temporary increase in arrears earlier in the year, after the holiday season.
> 
> ...




some interesting research from the RBA that means we'll likely see new car sles slow dramatically as house price growth stalls or goes into reverse

http://www.rba.gov.au/publications/rdp/2015/2015-08.html



> We ﬁnd a robust postcode-level relationship between growth in house prices and new passenger vehicle registrations. The relationship is robust to the inclusion of local-area ﬁxed effects and the full set of control variables. In our preferred speciﬁcation, we estimate an elasticity of new passenger vehicle registrations with respect to house prices of 0.4–0.5, with a relatively high degree of precision…
> 
> We estimate an average MPC for new vehicles of about 0.06 cents per dollar increase in house prices. (In general, we refer to new vehicle consumption…
> 
> Assuming new vehicle registrations and total consumption have the same sensitivity to changes in housing wealth implies an MPC for total consumption of 2 cents per dollar change in gross housing wealth.






> Our ﬁnding of heterogeneity in MPCs by income is consistent with a collateral constraints channel. Low-income households are more likely than high-income households to have low wealth, and so be subject to binding collateral constraints. *This implies that a dollar increase in house prices is more likely to reduce borrowing constraints and raise consumption for low- than for high-wealth households…*


----------



## sptrawler (2 September 2015)

The Aussie answer, to get off struggle street.

http://www.smh.com.au/business/the-...-in-one-depressing-chart-20150901-gjd2w1.html

One more power ball, and I'm out of here.


----------



## waterbottle (2 September 2015)

sptrawler said:


> The Aussie answer, to get off struggle street.
> 
> http://www.smh.com.au/business/the-...-in-one-depressing-chart-20150901-gjd2w1.html
> 
> One more power ball, and I'm out of here.




Did they include bets placed on the ASX lololololol


----------



## Mrmagoo (2 September 2015)

Can't wait for the current affairs special.

Aussie battler tradesman on 150k forced to work for 65k !

Old batter baby boomer lost money on investment properties while trying to "provide a little for his retirement" took a 500k loss, now only has 1.5 million in  cash !

Struggle  street Australia. 

Meanwhile the 24 year old engineer spending half is income on a bedsit should just "get off his **** and work harder".


----------



## Tyler Durden (2 September 2015)

sptrawler said:


> The Aussie answer, to get off struggle street.
> 
> http://www.smh.com.au/business/the-...-in-one-depressing-chart-20150901-gjd2w1.html
> 
> One more power ball, and I'm out of here.




Invest in TAH and CWN


----------



## sydboy007 (3 September 2015)

So real GDP per capita fell by another 0.2% for the june qtr, while real NDI was down 1.2% and down over 2.3% for the last year

Only thing propping up GDP growth is immigration and Govt spending.

ToT down another seasonally-adjusted 3.4% over the quarter and by 10.6% over the year, and is now tracking at a 9-year low.  Plenty more to go still with the ToT being around 20% above the long term average.

Per capita income – down 4.5% since December 2011 - which is why so many of us feel like we're already in recession.

Real GDP per hour zero growth, up just 0.4% over the year, so productivity is certainly not helping income growth.


----------



## CanOz (3 September 2015)

Canada and Brazil are in recessions, Australia must be next, officially....there's not really much the government can do, its likely best if they stay out of it. The bank will keep cutting, eventually exports should improve. Hopefully housing gets a pull back at least....

Maybe Australia will end up like Brazil?

CanOz


----------



## sptrawler (23 September 2015)

Crime is on the increase, unemployment is on the increase, debt level is high. Not a great situation. IMO

We need someone in power, who can tell us, everything is o.k

That will make everything better.


----------



## sptrawler (23 September 2015)

sydboy007 said:


> So real GDP per capita fell by another 0.2% for the june qtr, while real NDI was down 1.2% and down over 2.3% for the last year
> 
> Only thing propping up GDP growth is immigration and Govt spending.
> 
> ...




So what is the answer?


----------



## sptrawler (30 September 2015)

Smiths chips, is closing its manufacturing plant, in Perth. Another 300 jobs to go, plus the problems for potato growers.

There is an exodus of people out of the State, so things will continue on the downward spiral, in W.A


----------



## Tyler Durden (3 October 2015)

sptrawler said:


> Smiths chips, is closing its manufacturing plant, in Perth. Another 300 jobs to go, plus the problems for potato growers.
> 
> There is an exodus of people out of the State, so things will continue on the downward spiral, in W.A




Never thought chips (or even just Smiths) would be on the decline.

On another topic, in addition to the news headlines, I have sensed a strong move from use of taxis to use of uber. I even came across a taxi driver who changed to uber, and he said it was much better. Interesting how the decline of the taxi industry will (if) affect the economy.


----------



## Gringotts Bank (3 October 2015)

Tyler Durden said:


> I have noticed a few shops pop up which seem to specialise in catering for the Chinese, selling things like baby formula, vitamins, pills, and some other things you could get at places like Chemist Warehouse. They have a very basic set up, just shelves with products and prices. No decorations, no special design of the place, no loud advertisements, just a very basic shop that looks like it could move on at any moment.
> 
> They seem to be fairly popular with the Chinese, and I think their prices are a little bit better than places like Chemist Warehouse. Not sure how they do it, but yeah.
> 
> An example is one in Burwood near the train station, on the same road and side as Hungry Jacks.




I've noticed Chinese birds going into chemists and supermarkets and clearing out the shelves of baby formula.  Too bad for anyone else who wants it.

And Chinese shops opening up with all Chinese signage.  They push their culture harder than they push their kids to get into medicine.  'You doctor yet??? You study more!!'


----------



## CanOz (3 October 2015)

Gringotts Bank said:


> I've noticed Chinese birds going into chemists and supermarkets and clearing out the shelves of baby formula.  Too bad for anyone else who wants it.




Tell me about it, we struggled to find Aptamil pro nutura 3 as well. We even tried a Coles delivery and that failed. I've got some people stocking up on it from Brisbane to the Sunshine Coast.


----------



## Smurf1976 (3 October 2015)

Tyler Durden said:


> Never thought chips (or even just Smiths) would be on the decline.




+1

Do they have other factories in Australia and are just closing one due to falling sales?

Or are they stopping production here altogether and to be replaced with imports, either under the same brand or some other brand?


----------



## sinner (3 October 2015)

Tyler Durden said:


> On another topic, in addition to the news headlines, I have sensed a strong move from use of taxis to use of uber. I even came across a taxi driver who changed to uber, and he said it was much better. Interesting how the decline of the taxi industry will (if) affect the economy.




It's the honeymoon phase. Have a read about what happens when Uber competition like Lyft comes to town in a big way. Uber cut prices and suddenly all those "better" conditions and drivers tend to evaporate and what's left is the same underclass of people who only do it out of necessity.


----------



## sinner (3 October 2015)

Smurf1976 said:


> +1
> 
> Do they have other factories in Australia and are just closing one due to falling sales?
> 
> Or are they stopping production here altogether and to be replaced with imports, either under the same brand or some other brand?




Here's an article on it

http://www.abc.net.au/news/2015-09-...campo-shock-smiths-shut-crisp-factory/6817356

Seems like it's not just a street level story but more of a potato industry story with lots of context.


----------



## sptrawler (3 October 2015)

Nickel mining in W.A taking a hammering, mining towns all over W.A are in the doldrums, it will take a period of time for this cycle to run its course.
Even if there is an upturn in commodity prices, it will have to be a sustained one, to attract the money required to restart closed mines. Then you have the issue of attracting workers back to the towns, which requires a belief of long term employment.
If the commodities don't pick up in the next twelve months, it's my belief, things will take a really nasty tun, in W.A

https://au.news.yahoo.com/thewest/business/a/29707866/nickel-industry-braces-for-job-cuts/


----------



## qldfrog (8 October 2015)

http://www.brisbanetimes.com.au/business/aurizon-deepens-costcutting-to-become-leaner-smarter-more-efficient-20151006-gk2z2x.html
Aurizon to loose 800 extra jobs..well that will need quite a few part time burger flipping jobs at minimal rate to compensate;
Qld/WA united into the big fall


----------



## sptrawler (8 October 2015)

Blue scope workers at Port Kembla, agree to three year wage freeze and 500 job cut.

http://ipresspage.com/news/bluescope-workers-vote-yes-to-wage-freeze-500-job-cuts

It looks as though the cuts running through the mining sector, are now hitting mainstream workers.


----------



## sptrawler (14 October 2015)

Not wanting to be seen as a pessimist, I promise, I will let you know when things start to improve in Perth.

But for the moment, things aren't sunshine and lollipops.

http://www.abc.net.au/news/2015-10-14/perth-office-vacancy-rates-rising/6855302


----------



## sptrawler (9 November 2015)

Nearly 1500 banking jobs to go.

http://www.smh.com.au/business/bank...jobs-to-maintain-profits-20151109-gku69i.html


----------



## Tyler Durden (18 November 2015)

I attended a seminar tonight where one of the guest speakers was a very famous economist. He gave a very basic and broad talk, nothing too specific or leading, but I got the vibe that he was trying to keep things positive and avoided the 'R' word. 

He thought the Sydney property prices might remain stable for the next year, that the AUD would fall to about mid to high 60's by next Dec, and that the ASX200 would reach 5800 by that same time too. He had a rather positive outlook on unemployment rates as well.


----------



## Valued (19 November 2015)

Tyler Durden said:


> I attended a seminar tonight where one of the guest speakers was a very famous economist. He gave a very basic and broad talk, nothing too specific or leading, but I got the vibe that he was trying to keep things positive and avoided the 'R' word.
> 
> He thought the Sydney property prices might remain stable for the next year, that the AUD would fall to about mid to high 60's by next Dec, and that the ASX200 would reach 5800 by that same time too. He had a rather positive outlook on unemployment rates as well.




You have to be skeptical of economists because you don't know what school of thought they ascribe to. The problem with macroeconomics is that all they can do is use models based on assumptions. The types of assumptions they use depend on their view of how the world works and how people work. That is the social science aspect of economics. Different schools use different assumptions so they come up with different results. The mathematics that they use is correct and it is deductive but it is a deduction from the assumptions so if the assumptions are wrong the conclusion is wrong even if the mathematical argument is correct. That's my problem with macroeconomics.

So when an economist tells me the market is going to go on a bull run, he is assuming a hell of a lot. I also wonder whether he is long on stocks.


----------



## DeepState (19 November 2015)

Tyler Durden said:


> a very famous economist.




Who?


----------



## Tyler Durden (19 November 2015)

DeepState said:


> Who?




It was Craig James at a CBA organised seminar.

One thing I remember now is he used luxury car sales as an indicator of how well the Australian economy was going, saying it was at an all time high, so people were confident in spending. I wasn't too sure what to make of that, as it seems to me a lot of people who can afford these cars probably aren't always making a legitimate income.

One interesting thing of note is that he said he drives a 1991 Ford Falcon, which I think shows how humble the guy is.


----------



## sptrawler (19 November 2015)

Tyler Durden said:


> One interesting thing of note is that he said he drives a 1991 Ford Falcon, which I think shows how humble the guy is.




Not humble, just has common sense, unless you need a car to make an income, it is only depreciating transport.


----------



## sptrawler (24 November 2015)

The W.A slowdown is showing no sign of decelerating.

https://au.news.yahoo.com/thewest/wa/a/30178698/outlook-on-homes-front-grim/

The last couple of paragraphs were interesting:

_Separate research by the NAB shows applications for WA jobs are at their highest level on record as people fight over advertised positions.

At the same time, the wages of advertised jobs in WA are falling. Jobs in NSW are now advertising higher wages than those in WA which is closing in on Victorian wage levels.

NAB senior economist Ivan Colhoun said at a national level the weakness in WA was being more than off-set by strength in the services sectors in areas such as NSW, Victoria and increasingly Queensland._


----------



## Knobby22 (24 November 2015)

Is WA looking recessionary, sptrawler?


----------



## sptrawler (24 November 2015)

Knobby22 said:


> Is WA looking recessionary, sptrawler?




It depends how you measure that, there are a lot of shops vacant, people generally are worried because most know someone who has been laid off.
Whether it is technically in recession, the statistics will be massaged to whatever the desired outcome is.

Broadly speaking though, consumers have tightened their belts for the long haul, IMO.


----------



## Macquack (24 November 2015)

Tyler Durden said:


> It was *Craig James *at a *CBA* organised seminar.
> 
> One interesting thing of note is that he said *he drives a 1991 Ford Falcon*, which I think shows how *humble the guy is*.






sptrawler said:


> Not humble, *just has common sense*, unless you need a car to make an income, it is only depreciating transport.




I have my doubts Craig James actually drives a EB Falcon, except as a "classic" collectors weekend use only vehicle. Ha Ha Ha ?

For one thing the 24 year old EB Falcon was a notorious fuel guzzler and any true "economist" worth their salt would not drive one on principle.

My guess is if Craig James is so f***ing smart he will be scrapping his EB Falcon and up-grading to a diesel powered Volkswagen because he is a "smart ars*" and will do a "killer deal" with some "sucker" trying to offload their "illicit" product.


----------



## luutzu (24 November 2015)

Macquack said:


> I have my doubts Craig James actually drives a EB Falcon, except as a "classic" collectors weekend use only vehicle. Ha Ha Ha ?
> 
> For one thing the 24 year old EB Falcon was a notorious fuel guzzler and any true "economist" worth their salt would not drive one on principle.
> 
> My guess is if Craig James is so f***ing smart he will be scrapping his EB Falcon and up-grading to a diesel powered Volkswagen because he is a "smart ars*" and will do a "killer deal" with some "sucker" trying to offload their "illicit" product.




That makes a lot of sense Macquack.

But then like all economists, James economics is 50% mental and 50% what the clients want to hear.


----------



## Macquack (24 November 2015)

luutzu said:


> That makes a lot of sense Macquack.
> 
> But then like all economists, James economics is 50% mental and 50% what the clients want to hear.




I think it is "100% what the client wants to hear", and the "economists" are fully "hedged" against that position (or what ever fancy term they use to do the exact opposite of what they are saying). Get rid of the parasites.


----------



## luutzu (24 November 2015)

Macquack said:


> I think it is "100% what the client wants to hear", and the "economists" are fully "hedged" against that position (or what ever fancy term they use to do the exact opposite of what they are saying). Get rid of the parasites.




True. 

Can we get rid of Fund Managers too?

With what must be a trillion dollars in aussies savings, they don't seem to know what to do with it but throw it all over the place and asking for more... oh, and getting paid for the troubles too.


----------



## Smurf1976 (24 November 2015)

sptrawler said:


> Broadly speaking though, consumers have tightened their belts for the long haul, IMO.



My observation, from both on-line and real world observation, is that pretty much everything that isn't either housing or overseas travel is getting squeezed out as consumers either don't spend at all, or put their money into these two areas.


----------



## DeepState (24 November 2015)

Tyler Durden said:


> It was Craig James at a CBA organised seminar.
> 
> One thing I remember now is he used luxury car sales as an indicator of how well the Australian economy was going, saying it was at an all time high, so people were confident in spending. I wasn't too sure what to make of that, as it seems to me a lot of people who can afford these cars probably aren't always making a legitimate income.
> 
> One interesting thing of note is that he said he drives a 1991 Ford Falcon, which I think shows how humble the guy is.




Thanks.

Car sales and luxury car sales are to Australia what the durable goods figures are to the US in some ways.  The luxury car sales figures are pretty volatile.  For example, in Oct there were only 107 sports cars over $200k sold [BMW 6-series, Porsche 911, Aston Martin..]. Only 71 'Upper Large above $100k' [Mercedes S-Class, Masarati Quattroporte, Porsche Panamera...].  It jumps around a lot.

The relationship between overall car sales and consumer consumption is there.  As to whether it suggests durability of the story, acts as a lead or lags consumer....well, yes and no:




He has made the standard ~10% upside prediction for equity market returns over the coming year.  These retail sell side guys are in a tough bind.  Ultimately they are there to sell stock.  You need to be in a position to see them privately to get their real thoughts.  I hope you took what you needed out of it to add to your viewpoints.

Adding to the list of curious stats.... I understand that IVF treatment cycles are picking up.  Now that's a sign of confidence in the economy more broadly than just the rarified air of ill-gotten gains.

On investment professionals driving old cars, it isn't that unusual.  Some just don't value personal wealth very much at all, just the craft.  One of the big time investors out there in the big smoke, who seems to be on Bloomberg a lot and ran a huge asset manager whilst continuing to invest a deca-billion portfolio drove a 20 year old purple Volvo with a missing hub cap.  He earned over USD$20m a year.  Gave most of it away at the church he played the organ at, lived in a modest house, flew economy when on business... he was extreme in many ways, but the concept of not caring too much for the high life despite ability to do so is fairly common.  Of course, there's also a lot who do the opposite, but that's hardly constrained to the world of finance.

I just sold my 16yr old car and added to the economy.


----------



## Vixs (26 November 2015)

luutzu said:


> True.
> 
> Can we get rid of Fund Managers too?
> 
> With what must be a trillion dollars in aussies savings, they don't seem to know what to do with it but throw it all over the place and asking for more... oh, and getting paid for the troubles too.




Well gee, you can't argue with your well informed, clearly articulated and evidence based position. I don't think there's any choice but to get rid of fund managers.


----------



## luutzu (27 November 2015)

Vixs said:


> Well gee, you can't argue with your well informed, clearly articulated and evidence based position. I don't think there's any choice but to get rid of fund managers.




I detect sarcasm there?

What evidence do you need?

The fact that the majority of fund managers couldn't beat the index over any long period of time? Or that a few people whose super statement I can look at showed that for some years, theirs actually lose money and in the good years made a few bucks but the fees ate most of it?

At sept 2015, Australia has some $2.6 Trillion under management. If managed properly, you might solve world hunger with that kind of cash in a decade.

But according to industry experts and insiders, that's not enough money and if we're lucky the average Australian worker may just be OK at retirement from those savings... chances are we won't be OK so the gov't should raise the compulsory superannuation rate, just to be sure.

Enough evidence I think.

If you want a model, go ask the fund managers... most seems to know how to build a few dozen where it's so smart it tells them to throw money all over the place and results where they'd be lucky to match a lazy, no good, stupid index... even before their fees are deducted.


----------



## fraa (27 November 2015)

Re Active vs Passive investing, if you look into it in detail, you will find that there are VERY few who are true passive investors - most of us are "fund managers" to an extent.

True passive investing (i.e. taking what the market gives you) means you maintain a market neutral portfolio (i.e. the global market portfolio) - ANY deviation from this means you are making a bet and there will be someone on the other side of your bet (i.e. you making making an active call). 

Even on hardcore index investing communities like Bogleheads, no one (or very few) invests in the global market porfolio. Instead, the very first step in the official vanguard/boglehead recommended process is to decide on bonds vs equities mix based on beta risk you want to take. This is a active call as you are already deviating from the bond/equity mix in the global market portfolio. Even more so, many Bogleheads dont bother with international equities (Jack Bogle himself said dont bother) and just stick with vanguard US TSM for their beta risk, so this itself is a concentrated bet on the USA, which is far from true passive.

So outside of few (any ?) people who are investing in the global market portfolio, everyone else is making active calls - so we are all "fund managers" in a sense.


----------



## Junior (27 November 2015)

luutzu said:


> I detect sarcasm there?
> 
> What evidence do you need?
> 
> The fact that the majority of fund managers couldn't beat the index over any long period of time? Or that a few people whose super statement I can look at showed that for some years, theirs actually lose money and *in the good years made a few bucks but the fees ate most of it?*




Australian Super is the country's biggest fund.  Their default balanced option returned 7.3% per annum over the last 10 years.  That is effectively CPI + 5% net of fees and tax.  That period of time includes the GFC.

Are you suggesting we remove all fund managers and invest all in cash or government bonds?


----------



## luutzu (27 November 2015)

Junior said:


> Australian Super is the country's biggest fund.  Their default balanced option returned 7.3% per annum over the last 10 years.  That is effectively CPI + 5% net of fees and tax.  That period of time includes the GFC.
> 
> Are you suggesting we remove all fund managers and invest all in cash or government bonds?
> 
> View attachment 65120




You're not going to pin the "get rid of all of them" as literally all of them right?

Of course there are some outstanding fund managers, that's just the nature of the bell curve. Within those outstanding ones, there's the bell curve again.. But I think you'd agree that on average, the vast majority of fund managers, while probably somewhat smart and educated people themselves, as a group they have not perform well at their job... and so yes, should be fired.


----------



## luutzu (27 November 2015)

fraa said:


> Re Active vs Passive investing, if you look into it in detail, you will find that there are VERY few who are true passive investors - most of us are "fund managers" to an extent.
> 
> True passive investing (i.e. taking what the market gives you) means you maintain a market neutral portfolio (i.e. the global market portfolio) - ANY deviation from this means you are making a bet and there will be someone on the other side of your bet (i.e. you making making an active call).
> 
> ...




It's a combination of them being very active and doing stupid things that are the problem. When you don't know what you're doing, best for the clients to be passive, sit down and watch youtube or something.

Diversification between asset classes, between geographies etc.... that's all sensible and I am NOT against that. But you can't  just diversify because it's safer.. it's more risky to diversify into things you have no clue about. You just have to invest in what you know.

So if the Fund have enough analysts, have managers who understand, say China, or China and China's industry A and  Company B... unless they can understand that, being active and buy into Company B in China so your Fund or your Asian Fund is "balance" is pretty stupid.

Stupid but sensible. When something is dumb but it make a lot of sense to keep doing it, somebody will get hurt - and it's never the guy that get pay no matter what happen.


Anyway, the whole industry is a scam. There are maybe a couple hundred managers who actually know what investing is and actually does it in managing clients money. The rest just set up a fund, get admin and marketing people in to promote and keep the paper works and payment churning, and the rest is either outsourced or simply divide each portfolio's fund into equal portion according to index weighing or whatever the marketing material claim the fund to be.

If "growth" fund then buy a lot more small caps, but still according to its market cap weighing; If "balanced" then half blue chip, maybe a quarter mid-cap and some micro cap... If it's Asian Growth then... you get the picture.

It's sensible to do these because performance is mark to market. But it's pretty stupid and people shouldn't be paid that kind of money to do useless things like that.

So no, they're active managers but they're not like us retail, not sophisticated investors.


----------



## Tyler Durden (9 February 2016)

I have a friend, approaching mid-20's, graduated with a degree in the finance field. Can't find a job in his relevant field and has been looking for more than a year.

Another friend is in HR who tells me that the job market is pretty tight right now.


----------



## Tyler Durden (23 April 2016)

Some Coles supermarkets have closed their home delivery section, so looks like people aren't ordering groceries from home as much now.


----------



## sptrawler (25 April 2016)

Tyler Durden said:


> Some Coles supermarkets have closed their home delivery section, so looks like people aren't ordering groceries from home as much now.




It's batten down the hatches time, the leanest and meanest are going to win.


----------



## Tyler Durden (27 June 2016)

I have recently gotten into the sneaker collecting arena. Quite fascinating really, some 'limited' sneakers, retail for $250 and then can fetch up to $2000 or more on the resale market. People who go after these limited sneakers may camp outside the store for up to 7 days, so when you break it down, the profit per hour is pretty slim.

Those who are lucky enough to get a pair will mostly resell and lock in the quick profit.

For other types of sneakers, there can still be a gain made, just not as much. What I see a lot of is, someone is lucky enough to buy a pair for $250, they wear it once or twice, take some photos and show it off on instagram or facebook, then sell it for around $200-230 (assuming it is not too limited, in which case it would fetch more than the initial $250).

What this shows me is that these people actually can't afford the $250 shoes they are purportedly buying. Instead, the effect of what they are doing is paying $20-30 to wear it once and then on-sell it. So although the instagram pictures may make them look very well off to be able to afford these shoes, they are in reality rather short of it.

It will be interesting to see if this sneaker bubble bursts before the property bubble.


----------



## qldfrog (14 July 2016)

Qld soon to catch up Tasmania:http://www.brisbanetimes.com.au/queensland/queensland-job-figures-unemployment-rate-rises-slightly-in-june-20160714-gq5pan.html
Beaten SA already in the race to the bottom..


----------



## sptrawler (14 July 2016)

Tyler Durden said:


> What this shows me is that these people actually can't afford the $250 shoes they are purportedly buying. Instead, the effect of what they are doing is paying $20-30 to wear it once and then on-sell it. So although the instagram pictures may make them look very well off to be able to afford these shoes, they are in reality rather short of it.
> 
> It will be interesting to see if this sneaker bubble bursts before the property bubble.




Well in the N/W of W.A, I think the property bubble, has burst before the sneaker bubble.

https://au.news.yahoo.com/thewest/r...mebuyers-as-pilbara-4x2-sells-for-150k/#page1


----------



## Tyler Durden (10 August 2016)

Walked through Chinatown in Sydney a few days ago, and noticed a lot of commercial premises are now vacant. I'm talking about the ones along Goulburn Street, Sussex Street and Dixon Street. These spots have always traditionally been occupied by Asian businesses, so it's kinda surprising to see them vacant now.


----------



## sptrawler (18 August 2016)

The unemployment rate in W.A, is still rising.

https://au.news.yahoo.com/thewest/wa/a/32374380/was-jobless-rate-soars-to-30-year-high/#page1


----------



## Klogg (18 August 2016)

qldfrog said:


> Qld soon to catch up Tasmania:http://www.brisbanetimes.com.au/queensland/queensland-job-figures-unemployment-rate-rises-slightly-in-june-20160714-gq5pan.html
> Beaten SA already in the race to the bottom..




Interesting point. A week or two ago I was looking at FSA (Fox Symes) and took a squiz at the Debt Agreement statistics. Along with WA, QLD is shooting up on the Personal Debt Agreement front. See here

VIC/NSW showing no signs of stress right now.


----------



## CanOz (18 August 2016)

Ever since 2008, any sniff of less than stellar data everyone is at the ready with loads of pessimism. Perma bears are always eventually right...

If the data is good, its rigged!

When will y'all learn that tops don't occur when pessimism is still this high?

The next crisis will be here upon our doorstep when you completely forget about the the last one ord believe it could never happen again. Exuberance is what you bears should be looking for!


----------



## Klogg (18 August 2016)

CanOz said:


> The next crisis will be here upon our doorstep when you completely forget about the the last one ord believe it could never happen again. Exuberance is what you bears should be looking for!




To be fair, the Melbourne and Sydney property markets are close to this. But yes, completely agree. Just thought the debt agreement stats were interesting.

What's that saying again about the economist who was able to forecast 6 of the last 1 stock market crashes?


----------



## Smurf1976 (3 September 2016)

Something I find a bit unusual and interesting is unemployment statistics and how similar they are between most states.

National rate = 5.7% (July 2016)

SA = 6.4%
WA = 6.3%
Tas = 6.2%
Qld = 6.1%
Vic = 5.9%

NSW = 5.2%

ACT = 3.6%
NT = 3.5%

So there's basically no difference between SA, WA, Tas, Qld and Vic with only a modest difference between those states and NSW. Only the ACT and NT are substantially lower than the others.

All of which seems unusual when compared to the situation historically. Maybe it has happened previously, I haven't done a huge amount of research, but from what I recall it generally hasn't been the case that there's basically no difference between most states. 

Thoughts as to what and why?


----------



## cynic (3 September 2016)

Smurf1976 said:


> Something I find a bit unusual and interesting is unemployment statistics and how similar they are between most states.
> 
> National rate = 5.7% (July 2016)
> 
> ...




If one were to view statistics showing the percentages, by state, of centrelink benefit recipients, it would likely paint a very different picture!


----------



## qldfrog (3 September 2016)

cynic said:


> If one were to view statistics showing the percentages, by state, of centrelink benefit recipients, it would likely paint a very different picture!



Indeed, unemployment numbers are irrelevant to the real world, they only show unemployement among a very narrow blue collar portion of the population: no unemployment figures recording any self employed/most of tradies/professionals/contractors etc etc who are now a major part of the economy, and do not parallel the official fiogures;
the tens of thousands of jobs lost in Brisbane mining offices will never popup on the radar; no centerlink benefits until the bank seize the house, no records.
Just do not believe the official figures;
my barometer is traffic on the road to the city: 
based on this, in the last 3 months, things are getting better here in Brisbane with a mix of higher tradies traffic and white collars jobs increase seen in the train.rates are much lower so overall $ impact may not be that good
qldfrog not the BAS...


----------



## CanOz (3 September 2016)

Provided the method they use to compiled employment statistics remains the same, the benchmark is relevant.


----------



## qldfrog (4 September 2016)

CanOz said:


> Provided the method they use to compiled employment statistics remains the same, the benchmark is relevant.



really: not when the world changes;
counting the number of steam engines per day might have been relevant in the 1800's not nowadays ..same;
it is relevant for blue collar jobs which have been decimated in numbers and are not significant anymore in OZ, at least not in qld


----------



## Smurf1976 (4 September 2016)

Maybe I'm missing something here but I always thought that unemployed was unemployed regardless of what your previous occupation was or what qualifications you have.

Is that no longer the case? Office worker loses their job, goes on welfare and somehow isn't counted in the statistics? I thought that anyone out of work would be the same in that regard?

If that's the case, only blue collar workers are counted, then unemployment is probably over 20% at the moment and rising.


----------



## qldfrog (4 September 2016)

Smurf1976 said:


> Maybe I'm missing something here but I always thought that unemployed was unemployed regardless of what your previous occupation was or what qualifications you have.
> 
> Is that no longer the case? Office worker loses their job, goes on welfare and somehow isn't counted in the statistics? I thought that anyone out of work would be the same in that regard?
> 
> If that's the case, only blue collar workers are counted, then unemployment is probably over 20% at the moment and rising.



What I mean is a lot of people are not standard employees anymore;
white collars are contractor/consultants, blue collars are tradies; factory jobs with a daily shift and a payslip every week are gone
you go from a full work allocation to maybe 7days work in a month, no statistical change; unemployment unchanged

services:  you are now in a fast food or coffee shop, in a boom working 4/6 hr a day inc some week end, now maybe just helping the owners for a couple of hours a day at most; no statistical change;
so what the stats really measure is the number of full time employees who are made redundant and still unemployed/not moving (yet) to a more flexible /precarious situation;
even if we keep the same work threshold definition for unemployment,  the changes in the workplace nevertheless render these more and more obsoletes and counter productive.
So my point but if it helps to believe we are still in full employment  (6% is nearly there) let it be; but that is not what i see around me.
I have more  faith in my road traffic/carpark capacity at the commuting train station as i have in the ABS figures.
The variation on the sum of PAYG as seen by the ATO would be more interesting/telling even if not the complete picture.
Anyone knows where/if this is available?


----------



## Wysiwyg (4 September 2016)

Smurf1976 said:


> Maybe I'm missing something here but I always thought that unemployed was unemployed regardless of what your previous occupation was or what qualifications you have.
> 
> Is that no longer the case? Office worker loses their job, goes on welfare and somehow isn't counted in the statistics? I thought that anyone out of work would be the same in that regard?
> 
> If that's the case, only blue collar workers are counted, then unemployment is probably over 20% at the moment and rising.



Well I am in the resource industry and in the last 3 years there has been an obvious increase in redundancies and associated engineering companies have significantly reduced output. The national unemployment rate hardly showed a blip. I am confused.


----------



## Smurf1976 (4 September 2016)

qldfrog said:


> What I mean is a lot of people are not standard employees anymore




Now I get what you're saying. 

Agreed that there's definitely an issue with the approach that someone is either employed or they're not. That really only works if hours are fixed which generally isn't the case these days for a substantial portion of the workforce.


----------



## McLovin (4 September 2016)

qldfrog said:


> What I mean is a lot of people are not standard employees anymore;
> white collars are contractor/consultants, blue collars are tradies; factory jobs with a daily shift and a payslip every week are gone
> you go from a full work allocation to maybe 7days work in a month, no statistical change; unemployment unchanged
> 
> ...




That's why the ABS releases total hours worked and an underemployment rate. The underutilisation rate (unemployed + underemployed) is 13.9%.


----------



## cynic (4 September 2016)

http://www.aph.gov.au/About_Parliament/Parliamentary_Departments/Parliamentary_Library/pubs/rp/rp1516/Quick_Guides/Unemployment

Given that the, rather dubious, single digit percentage, unemployment figures are derived from a household survey of approximately 56,000 people, counting anyone working as little as 1 hour, in the reference week,  as employed, I fail to understand how anyone can reasonably accept this as truly representative of the state of Australia's labour force.


----------



## Wysiwyg (5 September 2016)

cynic said:


> Given that the, rather dubious, single digit percentage, *unemployment figures are derived from a household survey of approximately 56,000 people*, counting anyone working as little as 1 hour, in the reference week,  as employed, I fail to understand how anyone can reasonably accept this as truly representative of the state of Australia's labour force.



Maybe the Government wants people to keep spending. A rising unemployment figure would see households tighten their budgets and hence slow the economy even more.


----------



## McLovin (5 September 2016)

Wysiwyg said:


> Maybe the Government wants people to keep spending. A rising unemployment figure would see households tighten their budgets and hence slow the economy even more.




Neither the government nor the ABS come up with the definition, the ILO does.


----------



## Wysiwyg (5 September 2016)

McLovin said:


> Neither the government nor the ABS come up with the definition, the ILO does.



The Australian Gov. supports the Org. and quote the figures.



> The Australian Government supports the ILO’s mandate and objectives in promoting social justice and decent work for all in Asia, the Pacific and the rest of the world.


----------



## qldfrog (5 September 2016)

McLovin said:


> Neither the government nor the ABS come up with the definition, the ILO does.



True, the whole world tries to fudge numbers: interesting explanation here for example:http://www.abc.net.au/news/2012-05-14/janda-doing-a-job-on-employment-figures/4009594
in my opinion, unemployment figures with this definition are basically worthless, better use: as you pointed underemployment rate even if it is a bit weak as a definition or much better in my opinion, a comparison of hours worked
That would be a real indicator and is available somewhere in the ABS, 
but we should not focus on this unemployment rate or try to do decade long comparisons; hours worked vs working age population would be a better but more scary figure But all is good as the traffic has increased on the commuting road!


----------



## McLovin (5 September 2016)

Wysiwyg said:


> The Australian Gov. supports the Org. and quote the figures.






And?


----------



## Klogg (5 September 2016)

McLovin said:


> And?




It's government funded, it must be a conspiracy... lol


----------



## OmegaTrader (5 September 2016)

I don't know in other states but in WA there seems to be a lot of commercial vacancies for lease around Pert

My analysis for the day.


----------



## McLovin (6 September 2016)

qldfrog said:


> True, the whole world tries to fudge numbers: interesting explanation here for example:http://www.abc.net.au/news/2012-05-14/janda-doing-a-job-on-employment-figures/4009594
> in my opinion, unemployment figures with this definition are basically worthless, better use: as you pointed underemployment rate even if it is a bit weak as a definition or much better in my opinion, a comparison of hours worked




Are they really trying to fudge numbers? The dictionary definition of unemployed is "without a job". If someone is working 5-10 hours/week and wants to work more hours they may be a lot of things, but unemployed is not one. It's not like the ABS hides the underutlisation rate or hours worked, they're in 6202.0 every quarter. Underutilisation also includes discouraged job seekers who would otherwise not show up in the participation rate.

While the number may not pick up things like the casualisation of the workforce (whatever happened to NAIRU!?) it still has plenty of value as a pendulum in measuring the state of the economy.






Klogg said:


> It's government funded, it must be a conspiracy... lol




That seems to be the consensus.


----------



## Wysiwyg (6 September 2016)

McLovin said:


> Neither the government nor the ABS come up with the definition, the ILO does.






And?


----------



## qldfrog (6 September 2016)

McLovin said:


> Are they really trying to fudge numbers? The dictionary definition of unemployed is "without a job". If someone is working 5-10 hours/week and wants to work more hours they may be a lot of things, but unemployed is not one. It's not like the ABS hides the underutlisation rate or hours worked, they're in 6202.0 every quarter. Underutilisation also includes discouraged job seekers who would otherwise not show up in the participation rate.
> 
> While the number may not pick up things like the casualisation of the workforce (whatever happened to NAIRU!?) it still has plenty of value as a pendulum in measuring the state of the economy.



but why this focus on a non representative number vs for example hours worked; or even better the actual income from hours worked;
as i said above and to paraphrase: if a rocket scientist is employed by nasa 60h a week or as a janitor in a jim's franchise 3h a week (or even full time), is that really the same thing? It is by the figures mentioned;
IMHO the current unemployment and even underemployment figures are maybe worthwhile for a month to month or even quarter to quarter comparison but it does not take changes in society, the move to low paid job, service jobs, etc.
Anyway, if everyone is happy to believe that Australia is in a booming state with low unemployment 3% GDP (from memory) growth etc..all is good, and psyche being this important in the economy, HArvey Norman will see more sales, more tax revenues, etc etc i can run with the tide too.
I have learnt early enough that figures and facts, or being right or wrong does not matter for the economy.


----------



## Smurf1976 (6 September 2016)

I wonder if this will have broader consequences?

http://www.wsj.com/articles/south-k...iles-for-u-s-bankruptcy-protection-1473002745



> Hanjin is currently the largest shipping company in Korea, operating approximately 60 regular lines world-wide, with 140 container or bulk vessels, court papers said. It is ranked as the world’s ninth largest container shipping company, transporting over 100 million tons of cargo a year.
> 
> Its failure would be the largest container-shipping failure in history, dwarfing all previous carrier bankruptcies.




I'm thinking of possible flow on effects with goods stranded at sea. So things like manufacturers who run out of parts, because they're stuck on the ships, and have to stop production. 

Businesses go broke, that's life, but this one occurs to me as possibly being of broader significance in terms of economic effects globally? Also it is of itself a sign that things aren't great at least in the shipping industry.


----------



## qldfrog (6 September 2016)

Smurf1976 said:


> I wonder if this will have broader consequences?
> 
> http://www.wsj.com/articles/south-k...iles-for-u-s-bankruptcy-protection-1473002745
> 
> ...




Yes I saw that and interpret it as a canary but I am pessimistic; unemployment is going down and the commuting road is busy so not yet in australia;
On a personal finance side, i am reducing my exposure even more and has been going full bear for the last month.
Major crashes never happen when everything seem to go bad..so with maxed index and calls of rate going up again, we are ready to have one , more now than a year ago in my opinion...time will tell


----------



## sptrawler (7 September 2016)

qldfrog said:


> On a personal finance side, i am reducing my exposure even more and has been going full bear for the last month.
> Major crashes never happen when everything seem to go bad..so with maxed index and calls of rate going up again, we are ready to have one , more now than a year ago in my opinion...time will tell




Not so easy, when you're self funded and interest rates are less than 3%.

Have to be very selective and try to think outside the square,by the way, has any body seen the square.
I was in Perth city today, traffic very low, no problem crossing St Georges Terrace.


----------



## McLovin (8 September 2016)

qldfrog said:


> but why this focus on a non representative number vs for example hours worked; or even better the actual income from hours worked;




Because the number and the change in the number is a representative proxy of the economy, in the same way GDP growth is. Neither are supposed to be catch-all statistics, and both have flaws, as would using hours worked. In the end when unemployment is 5% the economy is going well, when it's 10% it's not.





qldfrog said:


> IMHO the current unemployment and even underemployment figures are maybe worthwhile for a month to month or even quarter to quarter comparison but it does not take changes in society, the move to low paid job, service jobs, etc.




One statistic is not supposed to measure everything going on in an economy. The point has been made several times already that the unemployment rate is used to pick up cyclical changes not structural ones. That's why the ABS release a plethora of other statistics; weekly earnings, household income, hours worked, household spending, inflation, retail trade, building approvals and on and on. They're all there for anyone who cares to look.


----------



## McLovin (8 September 2016)

McLovin said:


> Because the number and the change in the number is a representative proxy of the economy, in the same way GDP growth is. Neither are supposed to be catch-all statistics, and both have flaws, as would using hours worked. In the end when unemployment is 5% the economy is going well, when it's 10% it's not.




I should add, I don't disagree with your point that underemployment should receive more coverage rather than just the headline number. So should youth unemployment and unemployment in the over 50's which is probably what drives the difference between unemployed and underemployed. You can't blame the ABS though, they report the numbers they're there for anyone to see. In many ways it comes down to who uses the data. An financial market participants or the media are more interested in the immediate economic cycle, not long run structural changes that might take a generation to show up. And that's probably why the headline rate is the more important number for the users of 6202.0.


----------



## qldfrog (8 September 2016)

McLovin said:


> You can't blame the ABS though, they report the numbers they're there for anyone to see..



True, and probably too hard for the media and population to discuss, as a result you have to head to the raw data or read between the lines of the next AFR.
The risk is the numbers claimed right and left do not match what the overall population lives/feels and results in the general brexit/Trump mood.Why does this very thread exist?


----------



## McLovin (8 September 2016)

qldfrog said:


> The risk is the numbers claimed right and left do not match what the overall population lives/feels and results in the general brexit/Trump mood.Why does this very thread exist?




Yes that is a risk, but the hollowing out of the middle class shows up in lots of statistics, not just unemployment. I'll give you two.




And...




The second one is alarming. Even worse is what they're dying from. Liver disease, drug and alcohol related deaths and suicide. The surge in drug and alcohol related deaths is shocking. It's only happening to whites, which kind of explains why they're turning up in droves to support Trump.

The system in America is so stacked against you unless you get yanked out of the right crotch. I was wandering around LA on Sunday afternoon and seriously it would suck to be poor in America, once you fall through the gap there is no way back.


----------



## qldfrog (8 September 2016)

definitively not a good trend in the west if you are  white, male and above 40!!!
I bet the economy at the street level has a different meaning in LA, hasn't it


----------



## CanOz (8 September 2016)

qldfrog said:


> definitively not a good trend in the west if you are  white, male and above 40!!!
> I bet the economy at the street level has a different meaning in LA, hasn't it




Canada, Australia and Europe look fine qld frog.


----------



## McLovin (8 September 2016)

qldfrog said:


> definitively not a good trend in the west if you are  white, male and above 40!!!




Are we looking at the same chart?


----------



## qldfrog (8 September 2016)

McLovin said:


> Are we looking at the same chart?



no need for a chart: what is the income now vs 10/20/30/40y ago of a white male in his 40's...
your US chart about mortality in the US will be matched with a delay elsewhere is my prognostic.
and drug/alcohol/suicide may not be cause but consequence of both a society and an economic change.
Anyway I am not here to have a fight


----------



## qldfrog (20 September 2016)

barista instead of engineers, employed at 10h a week, and no real wage growth...results in ....
http://www.abc.net.au/news/2016-09-20/underemployment-is-driving-up-problem-home-loans/7860710


----------



## sptrawler (21 September 2016)

qldfrog said:


> barista instead of engineers, employed at 10h a week, and no real wage growth...results in ....
> http://www.abc.net.au/news/2016-09-20/underemployment-is-driving-up-problem-home-loans/7860710




The problem is, there are plenty of cashed up people prepared to pick off the bargains, so a crash may not happen. But a change in demography may result, we may end up like most other western countries, actually why wouldn't we?


----------



## qldfrog (21 September 2016)

sptrawler said:


> The problem is, there are plenty of cashed up people prepared to pick off the bargains, so a crash may not happen. But a change in demography may result, we may end up like most other western countries, actually why wouldn't we?



true but that is pushing a RE fall away:
money (as in most of the west) is with older people;
But we have a limited pension system so these cashed up people , as their retirement phase gets in will need to start freeing some assets for day to day expenses/medical bills
Once the cash buffer is empty, these assets will become the IP number 2 or 3: who will/can buy it from them, will the "rich asian from O/S" still be around?
Anyway, I believe these were interesting figures and related to previous talk about real unemployment/underemployment effects


----------



## sptrawler (30 September 2016)

The employment woes of W.A, are still worsening, but it does have a feeling that it may be bottoming out.

https://au.news.yahoo.com/thewest/wa/a/32768484/wa-jobs-market-continues-to-weaken/#page1


----------



## Macquack (16 December 2016)

qldfrog said:


> definitively not a good trend in the west if you are  white, male and above 40!!!






McLovin said:


> Are we looking at the same chart?




I am a bit confused 

After digesting your charts McLovin, I came up with the same conclusion as qldfrog.

White males 45 - 54 had the highest mortality rate per 100,000 people with "drug/ alcohol overdoses" as the main cause of death.

The Chart did read " *On the Rise *- Death rates have been rising for white Americans, which experts attribute to drug abuse, alcoholism and suicide"."

Where was the data for black Americans?

I forgot that Murdoch is not black. For that matter, Murdoch is not an American either.


----------



## sptrawler (23 February 2017)

Things certainly aren't looking rosy, for those who want a return to the"good times".

http://www.abc.net.au/news/2017-02-23/business-investment-disappoints/8297520?section=business

The good thing is, we seem to have moved on from the whole media debate being about gay marriage, finally the penny has dropped.lol


----------



## Smurf1976 (6 March 2017)

Something I find interesting at the moment is the unemployment rate and how it varies between states.

http://lmip.gov.au/default.aspx?LMIP/LFR_SAFOUR/LFR_UnemploymentRate

Of particular note is Tasmania having lower, not higher, unemployment than WA, SA, Qld and Vic.

Now, I have nothing against the island state (I live there) but one thing it sure hasn't been over the past few decades is a pillar of economic strength. Pick any economic measure and the state has been at or very close to the bottom.

So it's an unusual situation indeed to see Tas doing better on a key economic measure than 4 other states and slightly better than Australia as a whole. Very unusual.

WA could be explained by the end of the mining boom. SA could be explained by the ongoing loss of manufacturing in that state.

Qld is a bit harder since whilst it does have a lot of mining it also has a lot of tourism and general business. It's not a one trick pony.

Victoria, whilst the difference is minor, is even harder to explain given it has close to zero reliance on mining (they mine a lot of coal yes, but all of that is used within the state and not exported) and is largely a service economy with a significant financial sector.

Meanwhile we hear that NSW, which is doing well when measured in terms of unemployment, is at the point where at quarter of the whole country's economic growth is occurring in just a relatively small part of Sydney. Hmm....

I haven't thought too much about what all this really means but it does strike me as being unusual and something that probably won't be sustained. For the past few decades it has always been the case that anyone out of work in Tas would be wise to consider moving to another state, any other state, to improve their job prospects and many have done so over the years. Now the reverse is true and that most certainly isn't normal when looking at the past few decades.

If our national economic strength is being held up by public servants in the ACT, the financial district in Sydney and the relatively small populations of Tas and the NT then that's a rather narrow base with a lot of risk I think.


----------



## boofhead (6 March 2017)

Check the participation rate by state and territory. Tasmania has the lowest which makes the unemployment rate look better. Lowest employment rate too for Tasmania.


----------



## sptrawler (6 March 2017)

My call on the economy at street level, from a W.A perspective is, there will be a drop back to normality.
Wages are being cut, hand outs to beggars are being cut, people being able to afford their drugs are being cut.
Police are going to to have to work their ar$es off, as crime increases, just my thoughts.


----------



## sptrawler (18 July 2017)

Update on W.A, we seem to bouncing along on the bottom, IMO.

https://thewest.com.au/business/perth-truck-company-collapse-leaves-180-jobs-in-limbo-ng-b88540273z

http://www.abc.net.au/news/2017-07-13/mias-bakery-goes-into-administration-wa/8705156


----------



## sptrawler (22 August 2017)

bbchevrolet said:


> There has been public outcry up here about a trial of a welfare debit card system. The recipient can only spend the money on the card on approved goods and services. I believe alcohol stores etc will not accept the card.
> 
> Here's a couple of articles recently about the card from our local paper:
> http://www.townsvillebulletin.com.a...re-in-townsville/story-fnjfzprw-1227273821832
> ...




That was posted Feb 2015, I wonder how many areas have adopted the welfare card now?
My bet, within five years, all recipients of unemployment benefits will have a welfare card.


----------



## Smurf1976 (3 September 2017)

A thought which occurred to me recently is that there's not much talk about doing things cheaply these days.

Go back a few years and there was no shortage of businesses advertising their products or services based on cost. Either that they're cheaper than the competition, using their products will in some way save you money, or saying that whatever they're selling isn't really expensive at all. Saving money was always a key theme in advertising for anything other than actual luxury goods.

Likewise it was much the same thinking in government and "big" things (eg automotive industry). Some new addition to cars came along and no matter how valid the argument for it might have been (safety, pollution etc) there was always someone crunching the numbers that introducing technology x will cost $y and pondering whether or not the community could afford it.

Apart from mainstream media talk of house prices and power bills I just don't hear much mention of saving money or doing things cheaply these days.

Nobody seems to be advertising that they can fix a 15 year old car more economically than replacing it or that it's worthwhile reupholstering the furniture rather than replacing. Even "home brand" products are increasingly being marketed against their branded competitors on things other than price alone. Today the default for just about anything is "just buy a new one" and cost doesn't seem to rate a mention.

So it seems to me that apart from housing and electricity, the masses don't perceive money to be a problem. Something breaks or is simply no longer the latest model so they just buy a new one almost without question. Unaffordable housing and costly power maybe but everyday people seem to be throwing money around on everything else in a manner that only successful business owners, lottery winners and a few select professionals could afford not to long ago.

Just something I've noticed.


----------



## qldfrog (4 September 2017)

Smurf1976 said:


> A thought which occurred to me recently is that there's not much talk about doing things cheaply these days.



You have a point, money has lost its value;governments want it so, remove physical money/gold, leave computer records
When federal banks print and print, and governments spend and spend, value attached to money disappears: why should i save 100$ when the government is racking debt in my name at a much higher rate..thinking becomes:
I will add to my debt, sooner or later, it will be wiped out..
And i personnally believe this thinking is probably actually right..Savers will become the heterosexuals of nowadays: filthy rich who dared saving whereas poor battlers have such big debts..You can be elected/reelected with that

When sh*t will hit the fan,as it will have to, saving will be seized and debt wiped..so why should the man in the street care anymore?

On a street level side of things, in the professional area in brisbane, things are improving: I see more jobs available, but no rate increase


----------



## sptrawler (4 September 2017)

Smurf1976 said:


> A thought which occurred to me recently is that there's not much talk about doing things cheaply these days.
> 
> Go back a few years and there was no shortage of businesses advertising their products or services based on cost. Either that they're cheaper than the competition, using their products will in some way save you money, or saying that whatever they're selling isn't really expensive at all. Saving money was always a key theme in advertising for anything other than actual luxury goods.
> 
> ...




Very true smurph, I was chatting with a mate the other day, about the very same thing.
It was only a few years ago, we would put a recon motor in a car and give it a cheap respray and sell it, now there are better cars abandoned on the freeway.

In the mid 1970's a 26" colour t.v cost $700, a sparky on day shift earned around $230/week. Last week I saw an advert for a 55" 4k jvc t.v, at Big W for $700, a tradie is on about $2,000/week.

The price of a new VN Commodore in 1988, was $26,661 + onroad, it was drive away at about $28,000, tradie's wages were around $20,000/annum, unemployment benefit was approx $100/wk or $5,000/annum. 
The 2017 Commodore was $35,490 RRP, tradie's are on approx $80- 100k/annum,, unemployment benefit is $535/wk or approx $28,000/annum.
Consumables as a percentage of income, cost much less now, than they did 30 years ago.
Buying a house in a Sydney/Melbourne has gone up considerably, however houses in country areas are relatively cheap, also the amount of deposit required now, is much less than was required in the 1980's.


----------



## boofhead (4 September 2017)

Unemployment benefits for single person is about $540 a fortnight, $14,000 per annum.


----------



## sptrawler (4 September 2017)

boofhead said:


> Unemployment benefits for single person is about $540 a fortnight, $14,000 per annum.




My appologies, misread the info. 
The fact still remains, the cost of a lot of historically expensive consumer goods,has dropped as a percentage of disposable income.


----------



## satanoperca (4 September 2017)

Tisme said:


> Rape is penile penetration and putting it in someone's bum hole is homosexuality by definition.






sptrawler said:


> My appologies, misread the info.
> The fact still remains, the cost of a lot of historically expensive consumer goods,has dropped as a percentage of disposable income.




Consumer  goods have drop in cost significantly, I totally agree. But they are not need to survive.

Shelter, food, water and power (to keep warm) have not decreased but increased significantly.

I would rather TV's be $10K and shelter more affordable.


----------



## sptrawler (4 September 2017)

satanoperca said:


> Consumer  goods have drop in cost significantly, I totally agree. But they are not need to survive.
> 
> Shelter, food, water and power (to keep warm) have not decreased but increased significantly.
> 
> I would rather TV's be $10K and shelter more affordable.




True, but so have wages and welfare.
It never was easy to survive on welfare, and I assume it won't get any easier, as more of the population become dependent on it.


----------



## Faramir (4 September 2017)

This is a result from our human population growth. More demand for gadgets make them are cheaper to produce per unit. Liveable land (including high density living), is becoming rarer. Therefore finding a place to live will be harder. Hence more people competing for land, water and secure food sources. Cheaper gadgets can never replace what really keeps us alive. I cannot see things getting better. Why did Peter Costello say have one for dad, one for mum and one for the country? Why were they so worried about the birth rate back in the late 1990's and early 2000's. Migration wasn't good enough because we should be making more of us and import less of them.


----------



## sptrawler (21 September 2017)

As with the NBN, the slow roll out of the welfare card continues.

http://www.abc.net.au/news/2017-09-...-cards-for-thousands-of-queenslanders/8965774

The upside should be a bit of an increase in retail spending and maybe jobs.


----------



## crackajack (21 September 2017)

sptrawler said:


> As with the NBN, the slow roll out of the welfare card continues.
> 
> http://www.abc.net.au/news/2017-09-...-cards-for-thousands-of-queenslanders/8965774
> 
> The upside should be a bit of an increase in retail spending and maybe jobs.



lol really?


----------



## crackajack (21 September 2017)

crackajack said:


> lol really?



Overseas ? Not here chump.


----------



## sptrawler (21 September 2017)

crackajack said:


> lol really?




No, just having a bit of a laugh.


----------



## PZ99 (21 September 2017)

One thing overlooked in the commodore case is the cost of keeping it on the road.

My rego / insurance is 10 times higher than it was in 1988.


----------



## Wysiwyg (21 September 2017)

PZ99 said:


> One thing overlooked in the commodore case is the cost of keeping it on the road.
> 
> My rego / insurance is 10 times higher than it was in 1988.



But that's to pay the government to pay for considerably more infrastructure. More and wider roads, additional bicycle paths, more bridges, more tunnels. Old Dick Smith made a point about GROWTH addiction recently. Mind you we have nothing on the credit fueled American junkies.


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## PZ99 (21 September 2017)

No issues with where the money is going. It's where the money comes from?

My underlying point is not the ratio of how much it costs to buy things with your wage. It's how much it costs to operate / service / insure. It's this continual and increasing erosion of your stagnate wage growth that's the issue for many on low incomes.


----------



## Wysiwyg (21 September 2017)

PZ99 said:


> No issues with where the money is going. It's where the money comes from?
> 
> My underlying point is not the ratio of how much it costs to buy things with your wage. It's how much it costs to operate / service / insure. It's this continual and increasing erosion of your stagnate wage growth that's the issue for many on low incomes.



I lived from pay to pay for 25 years. I know what you mean.


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## crackajack (21 September 2017)

about time we had a recession to cleans the soul lol


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## crackajack (21 September 2017)

latest rort a sugar tax lol what happened to the pastie tax and a tax on a tax of this that and the other tax . lets tax the governement they are pretty good at it or better still import more workers and tax them lol


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## crackajack (21 September 2017)

Just started up a new political party.. The anti tax party... Vote for me


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## crackajack (21 September 2017)

Wysiwyg said:


> But that's to pay the government to pay for considerably more infrastructure. More and wider roads, additional bicycle paths, more bridges, more tunnels. Old Dick Smith made a point about GROWTH addiction recently. Mind you we have nothing on the credit fueled American junkies.




who gives a rats about dick smith ? went to his first store in bridge street years ago. no time for that jerk.


----------



## sptrawler (22 September 2017)

PZ99 said:


> One thing overlooked in the commodore case is the cost of keeping it on the road.
> 
> My rego / insurance is 10 times higher than it was in 1988.




You would probably be suprised, how many people don't bother with either.


----------



## sptrawler (2 November 2017)

I think I'll be brave, and say there is a glimmer of revival, in the W.A economy. 
It may be a while, before it affects the retail or housing markets, but the jobs are coming.


----------



## sptrawler (22 November 2017)

The housing market in W.A, has followed the job market down, Collie has been hit especially hard.
They are very reliant on coal mines and power stations, a bit like the Latrobe Valley.

https://thewest.com.au/business/min...c-pay-cut-a-hard-call-for-union-ng-b88657441z

Collie is about 200klm south of Perth and 60klm from the coast. 
Just in case people were thinking, it is in outback W.A


----------



## Smurf1976 (22 November 2017)

sptrawler said:


> Collie is about 200klm south of Perth and 60klm from the coast. Just in case people were thinking, it is in outback W.A



Been there (just as a tourist, completely unrelated to the power stations*) and it's a nicer town than I was expecting it to be actually. Not bad and seemed to have plenty of shops etc.

*Smurf being Smurf decided to takes some photos of the mines and power stations of course. Unfortunately I see that they've done a pretty good job of making that rather difficult without trespassing. Did see that Bluewaters wasn't doing anything though but Collie PS was running and so was Muja stage D as visible from some road behind it quite some way away. Pity they didn't have stages A and B fired up - clouds of smoke billowing into the sky would have made for a more dramatic photo but oh well.....


----------



## sptrawler (22 November 2017)

Smurf1976 said:


> Been there (just as a tourist, completely unrelated to the power stations*) and it's a nicer town than I was expecting it to be actually. Not bad and seemed to have plenty of shops etc.
> 
> *Smurf being Smurf decided to takes some photos of the mines and power stations of course. Unfortunately I see that they've done a pretty good job of making that rather difficult without trespassing. Did see that Bluewaters wasn't doing anything though but Collie PS was running and so was Muja stage D as visible from some road behind it quite some way away. Pity they didn't have stages A and B fired up - clouds of smoke billowing into the sky would have made for a more dramatic photo but oh well.....




Muja stage D, nice units, Toshiba must be 20 years old yet run as smooth as silk. They installed high twist blades, gave them an extra 10-20% output. You could stand next to them and not hear them, over the noise of 5 & 6, Parsons units.lol
A & B have been sent to the happy hunting grounds, at last, just another public/private venture gone pear shaped.
Collie is a Governement built 300MW unit, with provisions for a second unit, privately operated.
Blue Waters, built to a budget, so Rick Stowe had something to sell his coal to.
Then he sold the Power Station and the mine, I believe both are struggling.

As for the smoke billowing out of A/B Muja, there was nothing like it on a cold still winters morning, the line could be seen all the way to Albany.
Ah, the good old days, when environment didn't get in the way of a great photo. When quadratic droop, wasn't a prostate problem. LOL


----------



## luutzu (24 November 2017)

sptrawler said:


> Muja stage D, nice units, Toshiba must be 20 years old yet run as smooth as silk. They installed high twist blades, gave them an extra 10-20% output. You could stand next to them and not hear them, over the noise of 5 & 6, Parsons units.lol
> A & B have been sent to the happy hunting grounds, at last, just another public/private venture gone pear shaped.
> Collie is a Governement built 300MW unit, with provisions for a second unit, privately operated.
> Blue Waters, built to a budget, so Rick Stowe had something to sell his coal to.
> ...




Yea, the good old days when the gov't didn't hired consultants to figure out how best to charge for every little freaking thing.

It's quite incredible the creative genius that's involved in finding ways to charge you for things. And it's charges that's not charged because of more work or services are required. Or charge because it make your life better. It's just a money grab.

So I did a Tap-In check with Sydney Water earlier in the year. Their app online was pretty good and give you immediate response as to whether your placement of a proposed building would be approved by them.

Then if you need a certificate, you then pay a fee and they give it to you. Which is fair enough.

Now, they don't give you feedback on your design until *after* payment.

That's no big deal if you land is clear. But if it's tight and you want your building as close as possible and say, test at 1m away, 2m away, 2.3m away...

If you do that then you'll have to pay them each and everytime the system automatically check for you.


----------



## sptrawler (6 December 2017)

sptrawler said:


> I think I'll be brave, and say there is a glimmer of revival, in the W.A economy.
> It may be a while, before it affects the retail or housing markets, but the jobs are coming.




I thought things were looking slightly better, on the jobs front, it appears the figures are starting to lift. At Last, hooray.

https://thewest.com.au/business/eco...s-with-best-growth-in-two-years-ng-b88682300z


----------



## sptrawler (22 February 2018)

sptrawler said:


> I thought things were looking slightly better, on the jobs front, it appears the figures are starting to lift. At Last, hooray.
> 
> https://thewest.com.au/business/eco...s-with-best-growth-in-two-years-ng-b88682300z




It all might be too little, too late, the building companies are feeling the pinch from the downturn.

https://thewest.com.au/business/construction/another-wa-builder-calls-trading-halt-ng-b88753291z

I hope it is just a subsidary of BGL, they are a pretty big company, by W.A standards.


----------



## CanOz (22 February 2018)

Things are booming in qld, heaps of manufacturing management jobs, can't get a builder....house prices rising fast. Doing my head in....


----------



## sptrawler (22 February 2018)

My mistake it is BCL building not BGC, misread while wolfing down lunch, nearly made my cough it up.


----------



## sptrawler (22 March 2018)

It's obviously not too tough at street level, when the young can have this amount of disregard for an expensive assett.

https://thewest.com.au/news/offbeat...escue-attempt-caught-on-traffic-ng-b88783226z


----------



## CanOz (22 March 2018)

Must be a tradey....


----------



## sptrawler (23 March 2018)

CanOz said:


> Must be a tradey....




Yeh, or just an example of the way it is, I'm sure a pensioner wouldn't be so blase, or even put themselves in that position.
But hey the poor young blokes, can't break into the housing market, I really feel for them losing a $20,000 car.


----------



## PZ99 (23 March 2018)

Either it's insured or it's not their rig. Smokes and beer are consumables


----------



## explod (3 June 2018)

One persons current experience:

"

When i went along to the job centre, i was informed very sheepishly by my case worker that the Centrelink system was changing and he gave me the leaflet with the warnings.

He also informed me I would now have to find another 8 hours work to comply with government warnings. 
I'm now 63 years old and I'm lucky enough to be working 12 hours a week already.

He told me I would need to book in for a information day to have this explained to me and others!
I stated to him that I needed this information to be very clear and not like i'd need a degree to understand it.

I also said that the 3 dates the had offered me to select from for these information days were days I worked so would I need to loose a days pay to attend.
Also the nearest information day was the 18th of June, leaving me only 2 weeks before the deadline date of July 1st when the New Compliance System starts.

I also mentioned that health wise this would be pushing me as i suffer from osteoarthritis in my knees and hip.
He suggested I get a medical and apply for a disability pension!!!
I told him that I'd met someone who needed a heart transplant who was refused disability, so what hope did I have.

So, from what I've been told so far, which was also mentioned to my case worker is this New Compliance System 'could' potentially throw people to the wall and onto the streets homeless.

Unfortunately, the majority of people in Australia would agree with this new system, saying unemployment 'benefits' are for bludgers.

The government (all streams) and media has convinced all this is the case.

All members of parliament earn massive amounts of Tax payers dollars to do nothing, with absolutely no concern for anyone but themselves.

Will keep you posted.... "


----------



## Smurf1976 (4 June 2018)

explod said:


> The government (all streams) and media has convinced all this is the case.



They haven’t convinced me that’s for sure.

I am more than happy for my taxes to be spent on providing assistance to those who for whatever reason find themselves in genuine need.

What I do object to however is my taxes being used to assist those not in genuine need. That is particularly so when they are listed on an exchange other than the ASX.


----------



## sptrawler (29 June 2018)

Well after getting back from a holiday, to the U.K and France, I can say it is looking pretty good.
They seem to be bubbling along fine, from my pleb i side view, I would say their interest rates will be going up soon.
Just my opinion.


----------



## sptrawler (10 September 2018)

The economy cant be doing too bad, apparently we gambled away $24billion in the last 12 months, mainly on the pokies.
Add to that the amount spent on cigarettes and booze, we must be doing just fine. Lol


----------



## sptrawler (27 September 2018)

well the job situation is steadily improving.

https://thewest.com.au/business/eco...ncies-hit-record-high-of-236700-ng-b88973941z


----------



## SirRumpole (1 October 2018)

The fastest growing sectors appear to be in health, education, disability  and aged care, notably sectors that are primarily government funded.

We just have to hope that the business sector does it's bit as well to generate the revenue to pay for the public sector.

http://www.abc.net.au/news/2018-04-...on-new-jobs-since-2013-where-are-they/9597470


----------



## sptrawler (1 October 2018)

SirRumpole said:


> The fastest growing sectors appear to be in health, education, disability  and aged care, notably sectors that are primarily government funded.
> 
> We just have to hope that the business sector does it's bit as well to generate the revenue to pay for the public sector.
> 
> http://www.abc.net.au/news/2018-04-...on-new-jobs-since-2013-where-are-they/9597470




Yes there are a lot of new jobs happening in remote W.A, but getting people to work there becomes an issue, people would rather be in the Southern Cities, even if that means welfare.
https://thewest.com.au/business/min...r-expansion-to-create-1200-jobs-ng-b88976954z

Oh well I guess Bill's first job in office, will be cranking up the 457 visa's, again.


----------



## Smurf1976 (1 October 2018)

I can’t relate this to the past, having only recently moved from Tas to SA, but most things I’ve encountered seem busy so far as business is concerned.

Getting someone to come and quote on work or delivery of something that’s already in stock seems to be “week after next” for just about anything. Nobody I’ve dealt with seems to be short of work.


----------



## sptrawler (2 October 2018)

sptrawler said:


> Yes there are a lot of new jobs happening in remote W.A, but getting people to work there becomes an issue, people would rather be in the Southern Cities, even if that means welfare.
> https://thewest.com.au/business/min...r-expansion-to-create-1200-jobs-ng-b88976954z




Here is another example of the difficulty, getting people into country W.A

http://www.abc.net.au/news/2018-10-...ompanies-warn-against-population-cap/10329120

I would love to know how many young people are in Perth, on job start allowance.


----------



## PZ99 (2 October 2018)

It's been that way for a decade or more. Anyone who really wants to work will find a job. 
Welfare is an excuse for people to be long term unemployed. And yet we have idiots in the business community who think cutting weekend wages will make a difference.


----------



## sptrawler (2 October 2018)

PZ99 said:


> It's been that way for a decade or more. Anyone who really wants to work will find a job.
> Welfare is an excuse for people to be long term unemployed. And yet we have idiots in the business community who think cutting weekend wages will make a difference.




My daughter in law, works in the office for a road maintenance company in Kalgoorlie, they can't get lollipop people to man the stop/go signs. lol
Another close family member, works for a recruitment company in Perth, he had to get 10 sheet metal workers ASAP. Found them organised them to turn up for their medicals, eight failed the drug test. lol
Yep this is the clever country, the next thing we will hear, is everyone complaining because jobs are being given to 457 visa workers.
I worked shift work most of my working life, so weekend work never bothered me. 
Actually my wife was an RN and only worked weekends, it paid as well as working five days during the week, it is a shame that is changing.


----------



## sptrawler (9 October 2018)

What I'm finding interesting ATM, is everyone is concerned about those on welfare, and none are concerned about how to reduce it or fund it.
It is really weird, it rates as high as global warming, #metoo, and no one mentions how to reduce it, just how can we fund it.
It is as though everyone knows there is an elephant in the room, and they are trying to work out ways of feeding it.


----------



## SirRumpole (9 October 2018)

sptrawler said:


> What I'm finding interesting ATM, is everyone is concerned about those on welfare, and none are concerned about how to reduce it or fund it.




Jobs are being created aren't they ? 

That's what the government keeps telling us.


----------



## PZ99 (9 October 2018)

The jobs are there already. The incentive to find them is not.

Even my GF's pet robot is too lazy to make the coffee.


----------



## luutzu (9 October 2018)

SirRumpole said:


> Jobs are being created aren't they ?
> 
> That's what the government keeps telling us.




Yea, driving for yourself while driving for Uber, AustraliaPost etc. is a job. It's being your own boss except you're being told what to do, have no negotiating power and barely make any money while your real boss takes a large chunk of earnigs you help generate, put it towards automating your job.

On the lower pay scale people are earning jack. On the higher white collar pay scale, people earn better but the parasite still managed to do jack all and get about 30% of their pay. 

Gotta admire the genius that goes into rigging a system where you make money by doing nothing and call it entrepreneurialship.


----------



## SirRumpole (9 October 2018)

luutzu said:


> Yea, driving for yourself while driving for Uber, AustraliaPost etc. is a job. It's being your own boss except you're being told what to do, have no negotiating power and barely make any money while your real boss takes a large chunk of earnigs you help generate, put it towards automating your job.
> 
> On the lower pay scale people are earning jack. On the higher white collar pay scale, people earn better but the parasite still managed to do jack all and get about 30% of their pay.
> 
> Gotta admire the genius that goes into rigging a system where you make money by doing nothing and call it entrepreneurialship.




You are quite right to point out that the quality of jobs is not often measured or communicated.

A job is defined as doing more than one hour of paid work per month.

Probably not even enough to buy a pizza.


----------



## sptrawler (17 October 2018)

Obviously a massive shortage of fruit pickers, shame we can't find Australian's, with the skill set.

https://www.smh.com.au/politics/fed...ought-and-visa-shortages-20181017-p50a6g.html


----------



## luutzu (17 October 2018)

sptrawler said:


> Obviously a massive shortage of fruit pickers, shame we can't find Australian's, with the skill set.
> 
> https://www.smh.com.au/politics/fed...ought-and-visa-shortages-20181017-p50a6g.html




Don't they have machines to do that kind of stuff now? That's why the Yanks are deporting illegals in droves past few years isn't it?

Seasonal, part time, hourly contracts... those aren't really jobs. They're "gigs".

We all take gigs now and then don't we? Doesn't have to be fruit picking or working at properly licensed Woolies.

Don't think you can build a strong economy on gigs though. 

For one, it's unstable. Bankers will not lend money; earners will not live in security.

Two, life expectancy is pretty long. Even jobs with education at graduate or post graduate level would most likely be redundant a couple times over within a lifetime... 

You'd want to train your workforce so that they can earn (and pay taxes) on it long enough without needing to become lazy no-good (name your race) and seek entitlement. 

That not only reduce welfare for the peasants (so more can be given to the distinguished ones); have a skilled workforce with enough training they might invent something new... or just enough reading and learning they can teach their kids (you'd want future leaders and mandarins, not rebels and hooligans)... dignity and all that fluff.

But then I guess we can just call them names, use them as examples... and privatise prisons to get free labour and plenty of profit for friends and masters.


----------



## sptrawler (17 October 2018)

I really don't know I haven't been involved in the industry, but it seems crazy, that fruit is just allowed to fall and rot. Due to lack of people to pick it, or lack of equipment to pick it.


----------



## luutzu (17 October 2018)

sptrawler said:


> I really don't know I haven't been involved in the industry, but it seems crazy, that fruit is just allowed to fall and rot. Due to lack of people to pick it, or lack of equipment to pick it.




Yea, that is crazy.


----------



## Smurf1976 (17 October 2018)

You could live right next to some of these farms but they won’t employ you because the labour hire companies only take backpakers who then spend much of their wages renting accommodation from the same company.

So long as that goes on, I’ll have precisely zero sympathy for the farmers with whatever problems they’re having. Give local workers an opportunity and I’ll change my view.

Obviously that won’t be happening everywhere but it’s a definite problem.


----------



## CBerg (18 October 2018)

Smurf1976 said:


> You could live right next to some of these farms but they won’t employ you because the labour hire companies only take backpakers who then spend much of their wages renting accommodation from the same company.
> 
> So long as that goes on, I’ll have precisely zero sympathy for the farmers with whatever problems they’re having. Give local workers an opportunity and I’ll change my view.
> 
> Obviously that won’t be happening everywhere but it’s a definite problem.



Labour hire companies should be outlawed in my opinion in agriculture, it's just too easy to blame really bad situations on each other & nothing ever happens, possibly a new labour hire company is used. Out of the roughly 20 agriculture companies I've worked for(I'm in IT myself) only about 2-3 have good relations with picking/seasonal staff, the rest treat those workers like garbage. It's a real shame considering the amount of support farmers expect the community to show them.


----------



## sptrawler (18 October 2018)

Things must be getting bad. 

http://www.thebull.com.au/articles/a/77785-roger-david-menswear-enters-administration.html

I bought my wedding suit from them, 42 years ago. 
Wish I could still fit into it.


----------



## SirRumpole (23 October 2018)

No one knows what the economy is up to says Ross Gittins.

https://www.brisbanetimes.com.au/bu...-are-the-experts-20181012-p509a9.html?ref=rss


----------



## SirRumpole (23 October 2018)

Small business is no big deal says Ross Gittins.

https://www.brisbanetimes.com.au/bu...l-sauce-for-jobs-20181012-p5099r.html?ref=rss


----------



## luutzu (23 October 2018)

SirRumpole said:


> Small business is no big deal says Ross Gittins.
> 
> https://www.brisbanetimes.com.au/bu...l-sauce-for-jobs-20181012-p5099r.html?ref=rss




He's playing a fair bit on the "growth" claim. But his own stats show why small [and medium] businesses are important.

Employing 44% of the workforce, as he quoted, is pretty important I reckon. If medium businesses are included, they'd both employed some 60%.. that's important. 

He's right that the tax cuts wouldn't create more jobs, just handed more money back to the business owners. But it's misleading to say that small/medium businesses isn't important because it doesn't show high job "growth". 

Most small to medium businesses would employ local more than international labour. That has its own benefits.


----------



## SirRumpole (23 October 2018)

luutzu said:


> He's right that the tax cuts wouldn't create more jobs, just handed more money back to the business owners. But it's misleading to say that small/medium businesses isn't important because it doesn't show high job "growth".




I don't think he's saying that small business is "not important", just that it's not as important as the small business owners think it is.  Everyone talks up their own book.


----------



## luutzu (23 October 2018)

SirRumpole said:


> I don't think he's saying that small business is "not important", just that it's not as important as the small business owners think it is.  Everyone talks up their own book.




Yea, true. I guess I was focusing on the attention grabbing title. 

Fairfax gotta sell ads I supposed.


----------



## sptrawler (23 October 2018)

SirRumpole said:


> I don't think he's saying that small business is "not important", just that it's not as important as the small business owners think it is.  Everyone talks up their own book.




Including Ross Gittens, I have never found his articles, very enlightening. I suppose that happens, when you have to write a column on a regular basis, you tend they tend to write the same thing 1,000 different ways. IMO


----------



## sptrawler (23 October 2018)

SirRumpole said:


> I don't think he's saying that small business is "not important", just that it's not as important as the small business owners think it is.  Everyone talks up their own book.




Including Ross Gittens, I have never found his articles, very enlightening. I suppose that happens, when you have to write a column on a regular basis, they tend to write the same thing 1,000 different ways. IMO


----------



## SirRumpole (23 October 2018)

sptrawler said:


> Including Ross Gittens, I have never found his articles, very enlightening. I suppose that happens, when you have to write a column on a regular basis, they tend to write the same thing 1,000 different ways. IMO




I think that applies to most journalists in the 24 hour news cycle these days. If they don't write something they don't get paid. So they just concentrate on churning out words. Gittens seems to be one of the more balanced imo though.


----------



## basilio (23 October 2018)

I  have a lot of time for Ross Gittens.  He seems to be very clear eyed about how the economy works or doesn't work.  He is quick to call out the special interest groups that attempt to talk up their role in the economy to gain further governmet support when the facts would indicate otherwise. The small business story is one of these.

I suggest one of the killers of small business these days is the role of the large franchise groups which  herd potential small business people into their  franchise where they (often)  end up plucked and cooked.

The other killer is the rents in shopping centers which extract the last dollar from small retail businesses.

Makes one wonder what the effect on small businesses would be if say a super fund bought a shopping centre direct and then reset rents to make a 7% return and encouraged small businesses to survive and thrive.


----------



## Junior (23 October 2018)

I feel as though the argument around tax cuts for businesses is not black and white.....surely if businesses get to retain a bigger proportion of their profits, that will lead to more employees.  Of course it depends on the industry and particular business, but on average, overall, more profit =  increased ability to expand = more jobs.


----------



## SirRumpole (23 October 2018)

Junior said:


> I feel as though the argument around tax cuts for businesses is not black and white.....surely if businesses get to retain a bigger proportion of their profits, that will lead to more employees.




Not if they can spend it on machines or software instead.

If you give Woolworths a tax cut are they likely to spend it on checkout chicks or self serve atms ?

You can't really tell.


----------



## Junior (23 October 2018)

SirRumpole said:


> Not if they can spend it on machines or software instead.
> 
> If you give Woolworths a tax cut are they likely to spend it on checkout chicks or self serve atms ?
> 
> You can't really tell.




Yes.  If you cut their tax bill, they will be more likely to expand as retained profits will be greater.  For Woolworth expanding generally means rolling out more stores and therefore more staff.

I'm not saying every business would hire more staff.  I'm saying on average, across the entire economy, if businesses are able to retain more of their profits, some of this extra capital will be used to expand, which often involves more workers.  

Looking at the reverse....if the Govn't were to hike company taxes, many businesses would immediately consider if they can lay off workers, to protect profits.


----------



## SirRumpole (23 October 2018)

Junior said:


> Yes. If you cut their tax bill, they will be more likely to expand as retained profits will be greater. For Woolworth expanding generally means rolling out more stores and therefore more staff.




That depends on whether the consumer demand exists and what the competition is doing. 

Supply doesn't create demand.


----------



## basilio (23 October 2018)

150,000 people protesting in Melbourne over low pay. 
Wages aren't keeping up with inflation. 
https://www.theage.com.au/business/...to-fight-against-low-pay-20181022-p50b5g.html


----------



## luutzu (23 October 2018)

Junior said:


> Yes.  If you cut their tax bill, they will be more likely to expand as retained profits will be greater.  For Woolworth expanding generally means rolling out more stores and therefore more staff.
> 
> I'm not saying every business would hire more staff.  I'm saying on average, across the entire economy, if businesses are able to retain more of their profits, some of this extra capital will be used to expand, which often involves more workers.
> 
> Looking at the reverse....if the Govn't were to hike company taxes, many businesses would immediately consider if they can lay off workers, to protect profits.




Would giving corporate tax cuts be a sort of Russian Roulette? Hit or miss in terms of job creation or not?

If job creation is the aim, just give tax cuts or gov't rebate to consumers. They'll spend it. Spending create demand, create jobs. It also increase sales and profit to businesses too.


----------



## luutzu (23 October 2018)

SirRumpole said:


> That depends on whether the consumer demand exists and what the competition is doing.
> 
> Supply doesn't create demand.




Yea, it's gonna be pretty hard to sell to people who doesn't have much money.


----------



## sptrawler (23 October 2018)

Junior said:


> I feel as though the argument around tax cuts for businesses is not black and white.....surely if businesses get to retain a bigger proportion of their profits, that will lead to more employees.  Of course it depends on the industry and particular business, but on average, overall, more profit =  increased ability to expand = more jobs.




I think you are spot on Junior, if there is a tax cut to to small business, every business gets  100% of the boost.
If it were just given as a pay rise, only certain sectors receive the boost, essentials, gaming etc. Yet all the small businesses have to pay the extra wages.
It should have a much larger effect across the broader economy.


----------



## SirRumpole (23 October 2018)

sptrawler said:


> I think you are spot on Junior, if there is a tax cut to to small business, every business gets  100% of the boost.
> If it were just given as a pay rise, only certain sectors receive the boost, essentials, gaming etc. Yet all the small businesses have to pay the extra wages.
> It should have a much larger effect across the broader economy.




Small business are getting the tax cut aren't they ? Bipartisan support.

https://www.crn.com.au/news/labor-throws-support-behind-earlier-small-business-tax-cuts-513868


----------



## luutzu (23 October 2018)

sptrawler said:


> I think you are spot on Junior, if there is a tax cut to to small business, every business gets  100% of the boost.
> If it were just given as a pay rise, only certain sectors receive the boost, essentials, gaming etc. Yet all the small businesses have to pay the extra wages.
> It should have a much larger effect across the broader economy.




You could argue that tax cuts to the plebs is a form of wage increase. So business got subsidised and there's little need for a pay increase.

Tax cuts to the business owners and they can hire, or as SirR said, get a few more robots in; or maybe a well earned holiday and Lexus upgrade. 

If there's a demand, the cash will follow to the more competitive, more value-added businesses. That's capitalism and the free-market. 

To hand over to businesses, saying that without the extra cash business wouldn't keep the doors open or hire... that's not free or fair market, that's corporate welfare. 

But then it's a capitalist society. Labourers were well warned of where the gravy train is headed.


----------



## sptrawler (23 October 2018)

luutzu said:


> You could argue that tax cuts to the plebs is a form of wage increase. So business got subsidised and there's little need for a pay increase.
> 
> Tax cuts to the business owners and they can hire, or as SirR said, get a few more robots in; or maybe a well earned holiday and Lexus upgrade.
> 
> ...



Yes I know, in your eyes all workers are poor, and need a wage rise and all small business people are rich and drive a Lexus.


----------



## luutzu (23 October 2018)

sptrawler said:


> Yes I know, in your eyes all workers are poor, and need a wage rise and all small business people are rich and drive a Lexus.




Well, some preferred BMW and Mercedes. Weren't meant to be literal.

You know workers who are rich do you? Yea... I know a few who aren't poor and does quite well. Not really rich though.


----------



## sptrawler (23 October 2018)

luutzu said:


> Well, some preferred BMW and Mercedes. Weren't meant to be literal.
> 
> You know workers who are rich do you? Yea... I know a few who aren't poor and does quite well. Not really rich though.



I know a lot more small business people who have gone broke, than people who work for wages. 
I only know a couple of small business people who have done well, but most of the people I know have done o.k working for wages.
You will never be rich, but you will get holiday's, super, sickies etc, that's why I always worked for wages.
I knew I would have to do without, to save money, but I knew I wasn't going to lose the shirt off my back.


----------



## luutzu (23 October 2018)

sptrawler said:


> I know a lot more small business people who have gone broke, than people who work for wages.
> I only know a couple of small business people who have done well, but most of the people I know have done o.k working for wages.
> You will never be rich, but you will get holiday's, super, sickies etc, that's why I always worked for wages.
> I knew I would have to do without, to save money, but I knew I wasn't going to lose the shirt off my back.




Hence, tax cuts to the working poor so they'd spent more around the local area.


----------



## Darc Knight (24 October 2018)

According to the The Commonwealth Bank Business Sales Indicator (BSI), a measure of economy-wide spending, rose by 0.2 per cent in trend terms in September – the weakest growth since May 2017


----------



## sptrawler (24 October 2018)

luutzu said:


> Hence, tax cuts to the working poor so they'd spent more around the local area.



You don't give tax cuts to the working poor, they don't pay any effective tax, after offsets. 

You give them pay rises, until they reach a level, that they actually contribute something.
Mean while they loose their job, because the small business they work for folds, because it can't afford the wages bill.


----------



## Ann (24 October 2018)

sptrawler said:


> You will never be rich, but you will get holiday's, super, sickies etc, that's why I always worked for wages.
> I knew I would have to do without, to save money, but I knew I wasn't going to lose the shirt off my back.




........Unless you get retrenched a few times sptrawler, you can lose more than the shirt off your back if that happens to you. If you are a contract worker for an agency you get no holiday pay and no sickies. If you are still working beyond retirement age you get no super either.


----------



## Smurf1976 (24 October 2018)

Ann said:


> ........Unless you get retrenched a few times sptrawler, you can lose more than the shirt off your back if that happens to you.



If you're an employee and made redundant then you'll get some sort of payout unless the employer has actually gone broke.

I don't see how someone can really lose in that situation. Lose the income they would have had yes but not lose as in actually go backwards. Worst case they get the payout and after x months end up on the dole.


----------



## sptrawler (24 October 2018)

Ann said:


> ........Unless you get retrenched a few times sptrawler, you can lose more than the shirt off your back if that happens to you. If you are a contract worker for an agency you get no holiday pay and no sickies. If you are still working beyond retirement age you get no super either.



I never did the contract agency gig, a mate did, earned great money when he worked.
But ended up working for a salary in the end. lol

I did try working construction once, worked 3 months, then had an 8 week strike, went back for 4 weeks, then a 9 week strike.
I said "stuff this for a lark", wife and two young kids, I pulled up stumps and got a 'normal' job. 
All part of life's rich pageant.


----------



## luutzu (24 October 2018)

sptrawler said:


> I never did the contract agency gig, a mate did, earned great money when he worked.
> But ended up working for a salary in the end. lol
> 
> I did try working construction once, worked 3 months, then had an 8 week strike, went back for 4 weeks, then a 9 week strike.
> ...




A "normal" job now is pretty much like contract work anyway. 

Management can just call you in and off you go. Depends on how long you've been there, you might get a couple months redundancy but it's quite brutal. Not that it was any less before, being fired. Just now, it's more common. Or that's what it seem to me and people I know.

Group firing is also a trend. Just call a team in, have a couple of guards outside the door and off you go, outside the building within ten minutes.


----------



## sptrawler (24 October 2018)

luutzu said:


> A "normal" job now is pretty much like contract work anyway.
> 
> Management can just call you in and off you go. Depends on how long you've been there, you might get a couple months redundancy but it's quite brutal. Not that it was any less before, being fired. Just now, it's more common. Or that's what it seem to me and people I know.
> 
> Group firing is also a trend. Just call a team in, have a couple of guards outside the door and off you go, outside the building within ten minutes.



Yes gone are the days, when the owner fronted up to Centre Link the same day as the employee, those were the days.
When everyone went down with a sinking business, when the workers worked on just to keep the business going and the owner put the family into St Vincent de Paul to keep the business going.
Just so the workers, didn't have to join him and his family in the community doss house, yes those days are behind us.
Jeez mate, you should get a gig on 'have you been listening', your full of craic.


----------



## luutzu (24 October 2018)

sptrawler said:


> Yes gone are the days, when the owner fronted up to Centre Link the same day as the employee, those were the days.
> When everyone went down with a sinking business, when the workers worked on just to keep the business going and the owner put the family into St Vincent de Paul to keep the business going.
> Just so the workers, didn't have to join him and his family in the community doss house, yes those days are behind us.
> Jeez mate, you should get a gig on 'have you been listening', your full of craic.




What's craic? Just googled... I thought you were a Pom, not a terrorist. 

My first gig was working for a smaller business operator. He went broke soon after I joined - it wasn't my fault, honest. 

Everyone left except for me and the secretary who turned up after her work at her new job to help transition.

I help the guy without pay for about a month or two. Getting over the hump. He said we'll share the profit of any job we get. I estimated the pricing etc. for him, got two jobs but can't stay broke forever you know.

Never heard from him about the profit from those jobs though. Weren't much anyway... When my folks were building their house I called him up for a quote and he brought his "partner" along, giving us a very high price for the job, saying he can't help out because it's his "partner's" company too. 

What a douche.


----------



## sptrawler (24 October 2018)

luutzu said:


> What's craic? Just googled... I thought you were a Pom, not a terrorist.
> 
> My first gig was working for a smaller business operator. He went broke soon after I joined - it wasn't my fault, honest.
> 
> ...



And did it do you any harm?, Or did it make you more determined to get on with it, and make your own future?
When have you sat back and said "I can't get ahead, I'll never have any money, I may as well go on the dole"?
My guess is never, but as you know, I see it all the time too many too lazy to get off their ar$e.
I don't blame them, I blame the ones who excuse it.
It is the World today, no one puts any worth on anything, it is all a game.
Here is an example of young people's different reality, to us of the older generation.
https://thewest.com.au/news/wa/pert...r-stunned-by-meerkat-price-tag-ng-b881000811z
From the article:
Two people charged over the alleged theft of a baby meerkat worth more than $21,000 from Perth Zoo have appeared in court.

_Jesse Ray Hooker, 22, faced Perth Magistrate’s Court today charged with stealing the animal on September 19.

His co-accused, 23-year-old Aimee Cummins, appeared in the same court accused of receiving the meerkat on September 21.



Neither accused entered a plea and their case was adjourned until next month to allow them to get legal advice.

Outside court, Mr Hooker said he had only been to the zoo once and he did not know how much a meerkat was worth_.

FFing stealing it wasn't the problem, the chance it could have died wasn't the problem.
How much it cost was the problem.
We really have developed into a weird society, the biggest failings of the 'baby boomers', has been trying to make sure our kids didn't do it as tough as we did.
Now all we have, is a generation of people who believe, if they want it they should have it.


----------



## luutzu (25 October 2018)

sptrawler said:


> And did it do you any harm?, Or did it make you more determined to get on with it, and make your own future?
> When have you sat back and said "I can't get ahead, I'll never have any money, I may as well go on the dole"?
> My guess is never, but as you know, I see it all the time too many too lazy to get off their ar$e.
> I don't blame them, I blame the ones who excuse it.




Didn't know what to do with my life out of uni beside getting a job. But after that episode, stuff working for people.

-----------

Just a general statement here but I think our education system no longer raise students to think. More to know a specialised trade/profession.

While that might be good in the short term, in the long run, and life is long... I think it's very tough for people to cope with redundancy and changing industry and other setback.

When you're down and cannot quote dead Greeks, Confucius, Lao Tzu, other poets and philosphers... it's gonna be quite tough to get out and see the light. Tony Robbins can teach you to walk on hot coal, but it's useless after the blister's gone.


----------



## sptrawler (25 October 2018)

luutzu said:


> Didn't know what to do with my life out of uni beside getting a job. But after that episode, stuff working for people.
> 
> -----------
> 
> ...



I think our education system does nothing, other than to give teachers jobs, and keep young people in school and off the dole as long as possible.
Academic outcomes, have become second place to social and philosophical outcomes, which unfortunately don't make or sell products.


----------



## Darc Knight (25 October 2018)

As of October 2018

Cash rate - 1.5%
Inflation - 2.1%
Economic growth - 3.4%
Unemployment - 5.3%

And yet a lot of us are nervous?


----------



## Ann (25 October 2018)

Smurf1976 said:


> If you're an employee and made redundant then you'll get some sort of payout unless the employer has actually gone broke.



Yes about four weeks, depending on how long you have been with them.



Smurf1976 said:


> I don't see how someone can really lose in that situation. Lose the income they would have had yes but not lose as in actually go backwards. Worst case they get the payout and after x months end up on the dole.



If you have a couple of kids at school, a fairly hefty mortgage and you are around the 45 to 50 year old level with a wife who is physically unable to work. It is impossible to service a loan, keep a family for very long on the dole. Getting a job in this age bracket is very difficult and can take several months to a year if you are lucky. The payout is long gone,  the house payments are going backwards, car insurances, electricity, rates and a miriad of other hefty bills still keep coming.  It is very easy to lose the lot. Even marriages can end living in this kind of long term frightening stress.


----------



## sptrawler (25 October 2018)

Ann said:


> Yes about four weeks, depending on how long you have been with them.
> 
> 
> If you have a couple of kids at school, a fairly hefty mortgage and you are around the 45 to 50 year old level with a wife who is physically unable to work. It is impossible to service a loan, keep a family for very long on the dole. Getting a job in this age bracket is very difficult and can take several months to a year if you are lucky. The payout is long gone,  the house payments are going backwards, car insurances, electricity, rates and a miriad of other hefty bills still keep coming.  It is very easy to lose the lot. Even marriages can end living in this kind of long term frightening stress.




As technology improves, this situation will worsen, people will have to take on further training, change career or move to an area where housing costs are lower and job prospects better. IMO
It is just a reality people will have to adapt to unfortunately, the World doesn't stop, I know sometimes I wish it would.


----------



## basilio (25 October 2018)

So what sort of world do we want ? Who decides who gets to make $1m or $1b. or $100b  or perhaps just a fair wage to do a good job making/doing something worthwhile ?

Ann hit it pretty well. By and large most wage earners are a couple of paypackets away from the streets. In the end weend up doing just about anything to stay employed.

Perhaps one of the points of a good education is to ask what are we doing and why are we doing it ? If the answer is just to make and sell another dubious widget/scheme ... perhaps we should rethink what is going on ?


----------



## luutzu (25 October 2018)

sptrawler said:


> I think our education system does nothing, other than to give teachers jobs, and keep young people in school and off the dole as long as possible.




Teachers are being overworked, underpaid and way, way under appreciated.

Wouldn't keep kids, then adults, from the dole if schools aren't properly funded. But then that's what a privatised prison system is for right? Free convict labour on taxpayers' "correctional" dime.


----------



## Darc Knight (5 November 2018)

Here we go Folks?

_"New vehicle sales contracted in Australia for the seventh consecutive month in October, compared to figures from the corresponding months in 2017.

The market declined 5.3 per cent in October to 90,718 units, the lion’s share of the drop coming from New South Wales and Victoria, down 9.2 and 4.2 per cent respectively.

This certainly makes for a trend, now stretching into a third quarter despite low interest rates and near-full employment. The declining exchange rate, a spotlight on the finance sector, declining house prices in big cities, and the drought's impact on GDP might all be factors_."

https://www.caradvice.com.au/699508/2018-vfacts-october-new-vehicle-sales/


----------



## sptrawler (5 November 2018)

Everyone is getting ready for a labor government IMO.
Car sales have gone down, but Banks have been able to reduce their allowance for bad and doubtful debts. That would indicate people are paying off as much as they can, while they can.lol

The Banks are worried about silly Billy and his brain farts, but can't say anything.
_Westpac’s chief executive Brian Hartzer notes that there are plenty of potential headwinds facing the industry - not the least of which is political uncertainty.


The banking industry is privately expressing concern about the prospect of a Labor government - more especially the threat of changes to negative gearing and capital gains tax_.

Self funded retirees, are spending their money as fast as they can, to be eligible for a part pension.

Yep nothing like the threat of a Labor Government, to get the sphincters slamming shut, another dose of " Hello I'm Kev, I'm here to help you".


----------



## Ann (5 November 2018)

Darc Knight said:


> Here we go Folks?
> 
> _"New vehicle sales contracted in Australia for the seventh consecutive month in October, compared to figures from the corresponding months in 2017.
> 
> ...




It may not be as bad as you think DK if you keep reading your link. Here is a further analysis of the same information.

_*Record SUV sales in October*
Biggest fall in petrol prices in 10 weeks
Petrol prices; Job Ads; Services sector; New vehicle sales
Unleaded petrol price: According to the Australian Institute of Petroleum the national average price of unleaded petrol fell by 4.4 cents a litre last week to 156.1 cents a litre.
Job advertisements: ANZ job advertisements rose by 0.2 per cent in October after declining by 0.7 per cent in September. Job ads were up 3.6 per cent on a year ago.
New vehicle sales: In October, 90,718 new vehicles were sold, down by 5.3 per cent over the year. In the twelve months to October, sales totalled 1,175,908 units, down 0.6 per cent on a year ago. But SUV sales hit record highs of 498,850 units in the year to October.
_
http://www.thebull.com.au/articles/a/78142-biggest-fall-in-petrol-prices-in-10-weeks.html


----------



## sptrawler (5 November 2018)

The economy can't be too bad, they are extending visas for overseas workers, because we don't have enough home grown workers.

http://www.thebull.com.au/articles/...cker-visas'-to-ease-farm-worker-shortage.html

Another interesting fact, some mines in W.A are moving to an 8/6 roster, to keep workers.
That is 8 days on 6 days off, that is pretty amazing, when you consider in the 1980's it was 5 on 1 off.
That was 5 weeks on, 1 week off.


----------



## Smurf1976 (5 November 2018)

I’ve noticed what amounts to a campaign of sorts being run to the effect that old cars are unsafe and will probably kill you. There’s been quite a few mentions in the media all of a sudden.

Now this Smurf wasn’t born yesterday and I’m not silly enough to think it’s really being driven by concern about safety. Nope, it’s about selling cars and the only question was whether to use the “safety” or “pollution” argument this time. Seems that safety won - once that’s done if sales haven’t picked up then air pollution will be the next argument.

Yep, seen this show before. Same band, same venue, they just change the order of the songs.


----------



## sptrawler (5 November 2018)

Smurf1976 said:


> I’ve noticed what amounts to a campaign of sorts being run to the effect that old cars are unsafe and will probably kill you. There’s been quite a few mentions in the media all of a sudden.
> 
> Now this Smurf wasn’t born yesterday and I’m not silly enough to think it’s really being driven by concern about safety. Nope, it’s about selling cars and the only question was whether to use the “safety” or “pollution” argument this time. Seems that safety won - once that’s done if sales haven’t picked up then air pollution will be the next argument.
> 
> Yep, seen this show before. Same band, same venue, they just change the order of the songs.




Safety is more personal choice, which takes less Government interference, pollution requires regulation.
I'm quite impressed, with the general public's perception, of the state of the Nation.


----------



## sptrawler (13 November 2018)

Well the latest poll, by core data, of people's general feelings regarding their wealth and retirement expectations are enlightening. It highlights the difference between the hope and enthusiasm of youth, as opposed to the experience and reality of age.

https://thewest.com.au/business/boomers-set-to-blow-it-all-in-their-golden-years-ng-b881012520z

From the article:

CoreData WA director Kristen Turnbull said the commitment to intergenerational wealth transfer diminished “possibly as the realities of the amount needed for a comfortable retirement becomes more front of mind”.

“Baby boomers are most likely to be living for the moment,” she said.

Possibly also reflecting hope versus experience, about 76 per cent of Generation Y were confident they would be mortgage-free before retirement — almost double the confidence level among baby boomers.

Almost 41 per cent of boomers were confident of owning their home outright at retirement, whereas 28 per cent were not confident of being mortgage-free.

About 26 per cent thought they would retire with mortgage debt, compared with 14 per cent of Generation X.

Less than 3 per cent of Generation Y expected to retire with a mortgage.

Here is another take on the survey.

https://thewest.com.au/business/who...nk-will-save-their-retirements-ng-b881018583z

It is interesting that some people are relying on a lotto win, to fund a comfortable retirement, I guess hope is eternal.

And a final take on the survey, it is interesting, all the different perceptions.

https://thewest.com.au/business/hop...snt-how-to-plan-for-retirement-ng-b881017585z


----------



## SirRumpole (13 November 2018)

Smurf1976 said:


> I’ve noticed what amounts to a campaign of sorts being run to the effect that old cars are unsafe and will probably kill you. There’s been quite a few mentions in the media all of a sudden.




There is no doubt that  modern cars are safer and there are a few old bangers that shouldn't be on the roads, but I still get a kick from seeing well restored and looked after classics still driving around.

Quite a few classic car clubs stop in our area for lunch on their rallies and they usually draw good attention from us locals and their owners spend money in the town which helps the local shopkeepers.


----------



## sptrawler (27 November 2018)

Rumpy, this is exactly why IMO, Ross Gittins is the biggest waste of newsprint still punching a keyboard.
IMO absolutely no idea of what is happening, at the street level, just wants to be loved pandering to populist press.IMO


https://www.smh.com.au/national/the...ars-of-economic-sunshine-20181127-p50ikm.html


The only good thing to come out of this market shakeout, is to show young people life isn't all pi$$ and skittles.
The amount of Harley's, Commodore V8 ute's and speed boats for sale in W.A shows what happened to the mining boom. It is a wake up call everyone needed.
I personally know young people who worked the mining boom on $160k/annum, and have nothing but toys to show for it, after 14 years.
Now the toy's are either on the tip, or in the car yard.
The only growth industry in W.A that lasted over the boom, was fast food and eating out, it is still growing.


----------



## sptrawler (4 December 2018)

https://thewest.com.au/business/markets/flying-blind-the-dark-side-of-our-funny-money-ng-b881034875z

The instability, caused by all the 'money printing', is finally coming home to roost. IMO
Next problem, how do we get rid of all this paper debt, while still keeping confidence in the fiat system.
I wonder if we will have a 1 for 10 consolidation of money, oh what a mess.


----------



## Darc Knight (4 December 2018)

sptrawler said:


> https://thewest.com.au/business/markets/flying-blind-the-dark-side-of-our-funny-money-ng-b881034875z
> 
> The instability, caused by all the 'money printing', is finally coming home to roost. IMO
> Next problem, how do we get rid of all this paper debt, while still keeping confidence in the fiat system.
> I wonder if we will have a 1 for 10 consolidation of money, oh what a mess.




This is what a retired Accountant was telling me. Forget the Stock Market ATM he said too.


----------



## willy1111 (4 December 2018)

sptrawler said:


> https://thewest.com.au/business/markets/flying-blind-the-dark-side-of-our-funny-money-ng-b881034875z
> 
> The instability, caused by all the 'money printing', is finally coming home to roost. IMO
> Next problem, how do we get rid of all this paper debt, while still keeping confidence in the fiat system.
> I wonder if we will have a 1 for 10 consolidation of money, oh what a mess.




It's different to the past, and there is an undercurrent of concern for the level of world debt...but on the other hand I start to think why can't there be ever increasing debt.

I mean the governments make the rules, they can just keep creating debt, increasing debt limits...use debt to pay the interest. Kind of like a line of credit you never pay off, just keep increasing the limit. Who do they owe the debt to? There is a theory that if this happens it devalues their currency...but if the US is the world denominated currency then possibly they can do what ever they want???

Maybe it is a paradigm shift and we just need to accept it rather than be worried about it?

The man on the street can't do it, coz eventually the bank says no more and then its game over for him...but for government's?


----------



## sptrawler (4 December 2018)

willy1111 said:


> It's different to the past, and there is an undercurrent of concern for the level of world debt...but on the other hand I start to think why can't there be ever increasing debt.
> 
> I mean the governments make the rules, they can just keep creating debt, increasing debt limits...use debt to pay the interest. Kind of like a line of credit you never pay off, just keep increasing the limit. Who do they owe the debt to? There is a theory that if this happens it devalues their currency...but if the US is the world denominated currency then possibly they can do what ever they want???
> 
> ...




The problem with that, at some time you will be on $1m/week and a loaf of bread will cost $2,735.99.
That will cause problems, a house will cost, $520,000,000, younger people have enough problems adding up already.


----------



## luutzu (4 December 2018)

sptrawler said:


> The problem with that, at some time you will be on $1m/week and a loaf of bread will cost $2,735.99.
> That will cause problems, a house will cost, $520,000,000, younger people have enough problems adding up already.




Like our Asian neighbours to the north


----------



## sptrawler (4 December 2018)

luutzu said:


> Like our Asian neighbours to the north



The only difference is, they don't have any trouble adding up, they are as sharp as tacks when it comes to money.
They have to be, it isn't thrown at them, like it is here.


----------



## willy1111 (4 December 2018)

sptrawler said:


> The problem with that, at some time you will be on $1m/week and a loaf of bread will cost $2,735.99.
> That will cause problems, a house will cost, $520,000,000, younger people have enough problems adding up already.




Maybe in 50, 100 or 1000 years it might be like that 

Someone in 1950 probably thought it would be extraordinary to earn $100k a year in 2018. Now it is very common.

A lifting of the debt limit would need to be progressive and considered to keep inflation at a reasonable  rate, ie less than 3% p.a.

It seems to me, what is occuring and I can't see why it can't happen ad infinitum.


----------



## willy1111 (4 December 2018)

luutzu said:


> Like our Asian neighbours to the north




Are you talking about Japan?...I wouldn't like to have be an index investor in the Nikkei since 1990 

Maybe you can expand on your comment a little more?


----------



## sptrawler (4 December 2018)

willy1111 said:


> Maybe in 50, 100 or 1000 years it might be like that
> 
> Someone in 1950 probably thought it would be extraordinary to earn $100k a year in 2018. Now it is very common.



I'm 63 and I find it extraordinary. 
When I started work, an electrician was on $2.5k a year 1970, so do the sums on that.
My best mate is a council garbo, and he will crack $100k this year. lol


----------



## luutzu (4 December 2018)

willy1111 said:


> Are you talking about Japan?...I wouldn't like to have be an index investor in the Nikkei since 1990
> 
> Maybe you can expand on your comment a little more?




Was referring to the hyper inflation Homer was saying. So economically developing countries like VN where the daily bread is in the tens of thousands... or as the local put it, "ten dong" [just drop the 000].

But yea, heard that Japan haven't recovered from its 1990s property boom/crash. 

It's going to take us a generation or two to recover from our big one that's coming.

I mean, around Fairfield/Cabrammatta [Western Sydney]... a run down, mouldy fungus infested fibro next to an industrial zone right in the flood plain is asking for $1000+ a m2. Or about $800K to $1m.


----------



## sptrawler (4 December 2018)

luutzu said:


> Was referring to the hyper inflation Homer was saying. So economically developing countries like VN where the daily bread is in the tens of thousands... or as the local put it, "ten dong" [just drop the 000].



Your spot on Luu, I remember a few years back I took a taxi from the Ben Thanh markets to the Port, the taxi driver quoted $4U.S.
When we got there I gave him a $10 U.S note, he gave me 120,000 dong change. 
I said mate give me the $10 US back, I'll give you the fare in dong, I can't use it anywhere else.
He said I don't want that $hit.


----------



## luutzu (4 December 2018)

sptrawler said:


> Your spot on Luu, I remember a few years back I took a taxi from the Ben Thanh markets to the Port, the taxi driver quoted $4U.S.
> When we got there I gave him a $10 U.S note, he gave me 120,000 dong change.
> I said mate give me the $10 US back, I'll give you the fare in dong, I can't use it anywhere else.
> He said I don't want that $hit.




The Dong's probably not worth the money it's printed on. Which is not too bad for the owner of the People's mint printing contractor, who just happen to be the son of the top people's representative. 

They don't allow foreign exchange at jewellers now. It'll have to be through a licensed bank where you give them less fake money for their worthless crap.


----------



## Smurf1976 (4 December 2018)

willy1111 said:


> Someone in 1950 probably thought it would be extraordinary to earn $100k a year in 2018. Now it is very common.



We're at the point now where being a millionaire isn't particularly notable or unusual. Get on any random domestic airline flight and most likely there's a few millionaires on board and quite likely they're sitting in economy not business class.

Go back far enough and simply being a millionaire would of itself have made you famous unless you were careful to hide the fact.

I've seen the account records for major things built a century or so ago, railways or bridges and so on, and you find costs like 90K for the whole project. These days it would be $100 million+ for the same thing.


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## Wysiwyg (4 December 2018)

luutzu said:


> I mean, around Fairfield/Cabrammatta [Western Sydney]... a run down, mouldy fungus infested fibro next to an industrial zone right in the flood plain is asking for $1000+ a m2. Or about $800K to $1m.



As a self mutilated buyer at the property boom top, I wish I could save the buyers of those extreme Cabramatta valuations. Sadly they will bury themselves in debt for something that will be worth less in the coming years.


----------



## sptrawler (4 December 2018)

Smurf1976 said:


> We're at the point now where being a millionaire isn't particularly notable or unusual. Get on any random domestic airline flight and most likely there's a few millionaires on board and quite likely they're sitting in economy not business class.
> 
> Go back far enough and simply being a millionaire would of itself have made you famous unless you were careful to hide the fact.
> 
> I've seen the account records for major things built a century or so ago, railways or bridges and so on, and you find costs like 90K for the whole project. These days it would be $100 million+ for the same thing.




I was on a cruise earlier this year to the U.K, more than half of the 3,500 passengers were Platinum or Elite, which meant they received perks for being regular cruisers on that line.

I guess they will have to raise the membership requirement.
My Son and his wife are taking the three grandkids and flying to Sydney to do a cruise around N.Z.
Life can't be all bad.lol


----------



## Smurf1976 (4 December 2018)

Never judge people by appearance.

Just happened to notice someone in a shop this morning. Wearing old clothes and first impression would lead you to assume unemployed or low income.

They paid with a Diamond credit card.

Never judge on appearance.


----------



## Wysiwyg (4 December 2018)

Smurf1976 said:


> Never judge people by appearance.
> 
> Just happened to notice someone in a shop this morning. Wearing old clothes and first impression would lead you to assume unemployed or low income.
> 
> ...



*20.24% p.a. purchase interest rate

Shouldn't be long before his appearance is matched by his financial situation ....


----------



## luutzu (4 December 2018)

Smurf1976 said:


> Never judge people by appearance.
> 
> Just happened to notice someone in a shop this morning. Wearing old clothes and first impression would lead you to assume unemployed or low income.
> 
> ...




Went to pick up a few tap mixer for my brother yesterday. Wearing short, sandle, hair like I just woke up [my usual style]... the guy there gave me a tradie price without me asking for it


----------



## luutzu (4 December 2018)

Wysiwyg said:


> As a self mutilated buyer at the property boom top, I wish I could save the buyers of those extreme Cabramatta valuations. Sadly they will bury themselves in debt for something that will be worth less in the coming years.




yea, unfortunately it doesn't look like it's going to work out well for quite some years at recent prices.

Not sure if it's still listed, but there's this other land on the low side of the rail track, backing onto a stagnant creek, in a literal dead end street a few hundred metres away from a sewerage waste treatment centre... big land you could sub divide into 3 blocks [subject to council approval  ]... asking for about $1.4M or higher. 

Though a few agent to blocks along the same creek are a bit more sensible and asks you to call them instead.


----------



## Darc Knight (13 December 2018)

*Negative gearing changes 'could tip Australia into recession', warns John Symond*
https://mobile.abc.net.au/news/2018...negative-gearing-warning/10602484?pfmredir=sm


----------



## PZ99 (13 December 2018)

I think that claim is a houso-scare. High income earners who divest from property will reinvest somewhere else in the economy. Last time I checked, shares were quite cheap 

It's quite ironic really - it's housing debt that got us in the sheet in the first place, yet Mr Symond wants my taxes to sponsor even more debt for housing?


----------



## luutzu (13 December 2018)

Darc Knight said:


> *Negative gearing changes 'could tip Australia into recession', warns John Symond*
> https://mobile.abc.net.au/news/2018...negative-gearing-warning/10602484?pfmredir=sm




These property spruikers are just trying to scare us into giving them ( through their clients) government subsidies with inflated property prices.

While reversing NG would push the property market off a cliff, causing a recession... got to remember that NG was a major cause of the property exuberance. Bringing investors, those fearing of missing out onto that cliff. 

Now that the dreamtime is about to end with a bang through credit tightening, overstretched investors and young homeowners barely making ends meet, seeing their investment either already under water or about to sink... blaming reversal of NG for the recession is just a bit much. 

With foreign investors either pulling out or being constrained by their gov't to shift capital offshore; with never before seen individual/private debt level... Australia's going into a recession no matter what. 

To keep the current generous NG subsidy is just these spruikers ways of keeping themselves rich for the next boom. I mean, it'd be pretty bad for them if they pick up during the current downturn and the gov't didn't step in with NG subsidies to reflate the market again.


----------



## sptrawler (13 December 2018)

PZ99 said:


> I think that claim is a houso-scare. High income earners who divest from property will reinvest somewhere else in the economy. Last time I checked, shares were quite cheap
> 
> It's quite ironic really - it's housing debt that got us in the sheet in the first place, yet Mr Symond wants my taxes to sponsor even more debt for housing?



I personally think it will cause a greater contraction of house prices, but I think that is a good thing. 
If house prices aren't brought back, in Melbourne and Sydney which make up the majority of properties, wages will have to rise to support the current prices. That would cause inflation to take off, and hurt everyone. Just my opinion.


----------



## luutzu (13 December 2018)

sptrawler said:


> I personally think it will cause a greater contraction of house prices, but I think that is a good thing.
> If house prices aren't brought back, in Melbourne and Sydney which make up the majority of properties, wages will have to rise to support the current prices. That would cause inflation to take off, and hurt everyone. Just my opinion.




Yea, making everyone millionaires with funny money isn't a good idea.

Was talking to an oldish tradie yesterday during our breaks between lifting roof trusses... btw, nothing beats getting off our azzes and do some real work now and then... best sleep ever 

Anyway, he was suspecting that these gov't incentives to raise property prices was them getting out of their pension obligation, shifting the cost onto the younger generation with crap load of debt.

With property in the million or two bracket, pensioners would downsize, bank the million or two. Wit that kind of cash, no pension for you and you. 

For the kids and grandkids though... borrow to their eyeballs, pay stamp duties, speculators flipping properties [more stamp duties], creating jobs and commissions. 

When it all come crashing down... it's Labor's [the opposition's mess] and other people's kids problems. 

The bankers get bailed out; Privateers then swoop in; guys like Aussie John grin as they "fight for the Aussie battlers" arguing for more gov't subsidies to get the prices up again.


----------



## sptrawler (13 December 2018)

Well Luu, I think that property prices took off and kept rising, because of greed pure and simple.
Real estate agents started it, by constantly upping valuations, everyone new someone who had made a packet on their house so everyone wanted a piece of the action.
With the mining boom wages rose, people could borrow more so they paid more, bit of a ponzi scheme IMO.
It had to implode sometime, the elastic band can only stretch so far.
Those who didn't jump on board, will do o.k, my oldest son is looking at buying 100acres the price has halved. 
I will be able to chase the grandkids around on one of the quads.


----------



## luutzu (13 December 2018)

sptrawler said:


> Well Luu, I think that property prices took off and kept rising, because of greed pure and simple.
> Real estate agents started it, by constantly upping valuations, everyone new someone who had made a packet on their house so everyone wanted a piece of the action.
> With the mining boom wages rose, people could borrow more so they paid more, bit of a ponzi scheme IMO.
> It had to implode sometime, the elastic band can only stretch so far.
> ...




100 acre? cool.    Any trees and grass on the lot, or just sand? 

Sydney property might have another unintended crush if the NSW gov't recent planned high speed rail network goes ahead. 

Stretching North, South, West some 300km from Sydney. That's going to expand the suburban sprawl a fair bit. 

BUt given the previous record, might take another 10 years to kickstart the first track though.


----------



## sptrawler (13 December 2018)

luutzu said:


> 100 acre? cool.    Any trees and grass on the lot, or just sand?



It is in the S/W about 200k's South of Perth, farming land, paddock, trees, dams etc, the son want to try the self sufficiency gig lol. 
There is plenty of work down there, and it is closer than the Goldfields, so easier for us to visit.


----------



## luutzu (15 December 2018)

sptrawler said:


> It is in the S/W about 200k's South of Perth, farming land, paddock, trees, dams etc, the son want to try the self sufficiency gig lol.
> There is plenty of work down there, and it is closer than the Goldfields, so easier for us to visit.




With land that size, could start his own colony   I'm still trying to imagine how big that is.


----------



## Smurf1976 (15 December 2018)

sptrawler said:


> It is in the S/W about 200k's South of Perth



That's down somewhere near Busselton then?


----------



## sptrawler (15 December 2018)

Smurf1976 said:


> That's down somewhere near Busselton then?



Inland near Donnybrook, close to gnomesville. Lol


----------



## Smurf1976 (15 December 2018)

sptrawler said:


> Inland near Donnybrook, close to gnomesville.



Well that's better then.

My past experiences on the WA coast have tended to involve being blown around, drenched or threatened by lightning  whereas the weather always seemed nice inland so inland sounds good.


----------



## SirRumpole (23 December 2018)

Construction industry in crisis nation-wide.

https://www.abc.net.au/news/2018-12...re-a-construction-industry-in-crisis/10638228


----------



## sptrawler (23 December 2018)

SirRumpole said:


> Construction industry in crisis nation-wide.
> 
> https://www.abc.net.au/news/2018-12...re-a-construction-industry-in-crisis/10638228



Funnily enough these companies are the ones who have to lift wages, so the worker can generate some retail growth, just shows how much manure we really are in.IMO


----------



## Wysiwyg (23 December 2018)

That article is surprising but the rush on property brought every man and his dog into the industry. Be interesting to see how many of those companies that went bust were fly-by-nighters. The boom / bust cycles are something we should all be learned from.

Says me who bought at the peak of a property boom.


----------



## sptrawler (15 January 2019)

Ed Harry the menswear store, sounds as though it has bitten the dust.
https://www.perthnow.com.au/busines...-of-menswear-retailer-ed-harry-ng-b881074843z


----------



## Smurf1976 (15 January 2019)

sptrawler said:


> Ed Harry the menswear store, sounds as though it has bitten the dust.



There's a clearance sale of remaining stock about to get underway apparently.

It's a national chain I think. Well they're in a few states at least, it's not just some small operation.


----------



## sptrawler (15 January 2019)

Smurf1976 said:


> There's a clearance sale of remaining stock about to get underway apparently.
> 
> It's a national chain I think. Well they're in a few states at least, it's not just some small operation.



I'm really getting an uneasy feeling, hope I'm wrong.


----------



## luutzu (15 January 2019)

sptrawler said:


> I'm really getting an uneasy feeling, hope I'm wrong.




Na, your guts might be right this time Homer. Big time 

We're about to be properly stuffed. 

With protests almost everywhere... the coming crash should lit up a few places ey.


----------



## sptrawler (15 January 2019)

luutzu said:


> Na, your guts might be right this time Homer. Big time
> 
> We're about to be properly stuffed.
> 
> With protests almost everywhere... the coming crash should lit up a few places ey.



I hope not, but I think a reality check is on the cards, the underlying current I'm feeling is people are nervous and comfort food is doing o.k
I may go to TAFE, to get my plumbing license, it could be useful.


----------



## SirRumpole (16 January 2019)

Disturbing report of poor design and inferior materials used in Opal Tower.

https://www.abc.net.au/news/2019-01...gation-what-the-report-actually-says/10717830


----------



## PZ99 (16 January 2019)

SirRumpole said:


> Disturbing report of poor design and inferior materials used in Opal Tower.
> 
> https://www.abc.net.au/news/2019-01...gation-what-the-report-actually-says/10717830



I like this bit: The engineers concluded that a "progressive build-up of load on the structure as [the] apartments became occupied" also culminated with the crack at level 10.

Considering the tower only opened 4 months prior to that - it was unlikely to be fully occupied.
A full house could've really brought down the cards. I daresay the above defects would be widespread in multiple buildings. Once repaired, Opal could be the safest tower in the West.

That's if it doesn't use alucobest cladding. Stand by for the weight restrictions for new tenants


----------



## SirRumpole (16 January 2019)

PZ99 said:


> That's if it doesn't use alucobest cladding. Stand by for the weight restrictions for new tenants




They would have to make sure that when kids jump on their trampolines they don't do it at the same time.


----------



## jbocker (16 January 2019)

PZ99 said:


> I like this bit: The engineers concluded that a "progressive build-up of load on the structure as [the] apartments became occupied" also culminated with the crack at level 10.



Like they do in lifts maybe they should have a warning at the entrance of the building Max No of Persons and Max Weight is XXkg.
With a bit of luck they could make a fortune as a tourist attraction, come see an engineering design stuff up. This has worked EXTREMELY well in Pisa.


----------



## PZ99 (16 January 2019)

Opal would have to be the only tower containing elevators that are afraid of heights


----------



## tinhat (16 January 2019)

PZ99 said:


> I like this bit: The engineers concluded that a "progressive build-up of load on the structure as [the] apartments became occupied" also culminated with the crack at level 10.
> 
> Considering the tower only opened 4 months prior to that - it was unlikely to be fully occupied.
> A full house could've really brought down the cards. I daresay the above defects would be widespread in multiple buildings. Once repaired, Opal could be the safest tower in the West.
> ...




It's pretty freaking obvious to anyone living in NSW that the place is run by a bunch of merchant bankers and dodgy developers with absolutely zero regard for the people, community or the environment. The only problem is that the last time the other side were in government it was no different.


----------



## sptrawler (16 January 2019)

The end result will be interesting, repair or replace, if the later who will pay?
It could be a real can of worms, especially when they have used incorrectly sized reo bar.


----------



## jbocker (16 January 2019)

sptrawler said:


> The end result will be interesting, repair or replace, if the later who will pay?
> It could be a real can of worms, especially when they have used incorrectly sized reo bar.



Probably no one will 'pay'. It will probably go through years of finger pointing, and a series of spineless govts do nothing more than soap-boxing with more finger pointing, a bundle of blood suckers will parade in courts. The purchasers will eventually give up probably several futile fights and eventually take the loss and some go to ruin. The builder, developer,engineers etc will back out the door  pointing at others  or if cornered 'go broke' and all involved morph into new companies and move on.

Meanwhile the market will shun built existing apartments, then many will quickly forget about it or trip over themselves for the next glossy development brochure and buy.


----------



## PZ99 (16 January 2019)

Buildings like that have a 10 year warranty. So the onus in on Icon for sure.

Been through that process with my own apartment which is even worse than Opal.

P.S. > Google review... _Superb development, offering a chance to grow both your capital base and the size of the property you own. Mine is 2.5mm larger than it was only this morning. LOL_


----------



## Smurf1976 (16 January 2019)

tinhat said:


> It's pretty freaking obvious to anyone living in NSW that the place is run by a bunch of merchant bankers and dodgy developers with absolutely zero regard for the people, community or the environment. The only problem is that the last time the other side were in government it was no different.



I've never lived in NSW so my perception comes via friends who live there, the media and whenever I've visited.

Basically, my observations: 

*Growth and development at any cost.

*Major events seem to have a tendency of ending up with a lot of people disappointed. 

*The government seems morally conservative. 

*Public transport seems to be a chronic problem for reasons I'm not really aware of. It's frequent mainstream news nationally not just in NSW.

*The state government seems incredibly flush with cash to the point of seemingly having no idea what to do with it all.  

Just my observations.


----------



## moXJO (16 January 2019)

They have been madly slamming up apartments before the boom ends.

A lot of envelopes handed around to workcover,  unions and other inspectors.
A lot of cement trucks being forced to wait too long and the cement going off but still used.
Short cuts everywhere.
There is s lot of difficulties in such a built up area for everything to go smoothly.
Its not just shoddy tradesmen. It can be a huge list of things.
If the project starts badly then it ends badly.


----------



## Smurf1976 (16 January 2019)

moXJO said:


> A lot of envelopes handed around to workcover,  unions and other inspectors.



Am interpreting that comment correctly to mean corruption involving government employees and/or government itself?


----------



## SirRumpole (16 January 2019)

Smurf1976 said:


> Am interpreting that comment correctly to mean corruption involving government employees and/or government itself?




That would not be unknown.

See the Gold Coast council.

https://www.abc.net.au/news/2018-03...ate-at-the-centre-of-corruption-probe/9529434


----------



## SirRumpole (17 January 2019)

Elon Musk's solution to Sydney traffic problems,

https://www.abc.net.au/news/2019-01-17/elon-musk-blue-mountains-tunnel/10721798


----------



## qldfrog (17 January 2019)

[QUOTE="SirRumpole, post: 1010290, member: 5863

https://www.abc.net.au/news/2019-01-17/elon-musk-blue-mountains-tunnel/10721798[/QUOTE]
Considering sydney spent 11 millions on an art piece, 1 billion is a fair price even if it fails
This country needs some competitive infrastructure building
I do not know the details..but worth investigating. The battery in SA is a success as far as i know
Ok.now flying out to the opposite over infrastructured China


----------



## moXJO (17 January 2019)

Smurf1976 said:


> Am interpreting that comment correctly to mean corruption involving government employees and/or government itself?



I  don't need to end up in a cement foundation somewhere.

I will say this though, workers have apparently been taking photos of transactions (that I haven't seen, know about, remember,  all just a fairytale).

Certain groups have no problem throwing huge sums at certain people.

 NZ is also being bought. 
I see you Auckland tribe and government officials.  Fking greedy toads.

Its widespread both sides. People are out for what they can get.


----------



## Humid (17 January 2019)

moXJO said:


> I  don't need to end up in a cement foundation somewhere.
> 
> I will say this though, workers have apparently been taking photos of transactions (that I haven't seen, know about, remember,  all just a fairytale).
> 
> ...



Concrete my man concrete....


----------



## mcgrath111 (17 January 2019)

moXJO said:


> They have been madly slamming up apartments before the boom ends.
> 
> A lot of envelopes handed around to workcover,  unions and other inspectors.
> A lot of cement trucks being forced to wait too long and the cement going off but still used.
> ...



Not trolling, how can cement ''go off'', genuinely curious.


----------



## sptrawler (17 January 2019)

mcgrath111 said:


> Not trolling, how can cement ''go off'', genuinely curious.



They have all sorts in it, for cold weather, hot weather, distance to travel.


----------



## luutzu (17 January 2019)

sptrawler said:


> I hope not, but I think a reality check is on the cards, the underlying current I'm feeling is people are nervous and comfort food is doing o.k
> I may go to TAFE, to get my plumbing license, it could be useful.




Diapers too. 

We'll need both this time.


----------



## luutzu (17 January 2019)

mcgrath111 said:


> Not trolling, how can cement ''go off'', genuinely curious.




Wait too long and concrete/cement "dies". Start to cure and goes lumpy so won't bond to reinforcement etc.


----------



## luutzu (17 January 2019)

tinhat said:


> It's pretty freaking obvious to anyone living in NSW that the place is run by a bunch of merchant bankers and dodgy developers with absolutely zero regard for the people, community or the environment. The only problem is that the last time the other side were in government it was no different.




There's about 3 or 4 towers going up right next to Opal. 

The main core and slabs are done for two of them that I can see. 

I'm betting they're going to be properly built this time round. 

It's a nice area. Next to the pool, the park, the rivers, rail... About a million a pop for 1 Bedroom.


----------



## Smurf1976 (18 January 2019)

qldfrog said:


> The battery in SA is a success as far as i know



Yes, it does what it's supposed to do there's no question about that and has been supplying power into the grid during the peaks in recent days with the heatwave.

It's a success thus far there's no doubt about that. The only unanswered question is about longevity and what (if any) issues will crop up as it gets old but is still working as such. That's where the big unknowns are at this stage, actual functionality is proven.


----------



## moXJO (18 January 2019)

Humid said:


> Concrete my man concrete....



Yes,  my bad


----------



## moXJO (18 January 2019)

mcgrath111 said:


> Not trolling, how can cement ''go off'', genuinely curious.



It has to be on site and poured within a certain time frame. They do slump tests (sometimes).
Often you can get dozens of cement trucks lined up in the heat that were previously stuck in traffic. Once they go past a certain time they get sent back.
Segregation  can occur if its too dry/wet.
Or it dries out and the cohesiveness is affected. Even the height that you let it drop from the truck/pump can affect the strength.
Badly cured concrete is another problem.


----------



## moXJO (18 January 2019)

luutzu said:


> It's a nice area. Next to the pool, the park, the rivers, rail... About a million a pop for 1 Bedroom.




Can pack about 6 or more people in a one bedroom flat from what I have seen.


----------



## luutzu (18 January 2019)

moXJO said:


> Can pack about 6 or more people in a one bedroom flat from what I have seen.




Yea. I've seen that too.

A room is just a partition, like a box, the size of your mattress.


----------



## luutzu (18 January 2019)

moXJO said:


> It has to be on site and poured within a certain time frame. They do slump tests (sometimes).
> Often you can get dozens of cement trucks lined up in the heat that were previously stuck in traffic. Once they go past a certain time they get sent back.
> Segregation  can occur if its too dry/wet.
> Or it dries out and the cohesiveness is affected. Even the height that you let it drop from the truck/pump can affect the strength.
> Badly cured concrete is another problem.




I heard that they also layer/load the slabs on too soon after pouring. 

Concrete wouldn't cured, or strengthened enough in a day or two right? To pour slab after slab on top when those bearing concrete precast walls or columns aren't cured is just asking for it.

Spoke to a concretor few months ago... he said the shite he saw man. Saying some 3 storey buildings slabs are so under engineered he just shake his head... alright, as long as your guy said it's alright and I'm getting paid to pour this ****.


----------



## moXJO (18 January 2019)

luutzu said:


> I heard that they also layer/load the slabs on too soon after pouring.
> 
> Concrete wouldn't cured, or strengthened enough in a day or two right? To pour slab after slab on top when those bearing concrete precast walls or columns aren't cured is just asking for it.
> 
> Spoke to a concretor few months ago... he said the shite he saw man. Saying some 3 storey buildings slabs are so under engineered he just shake his head... alright, as long as your guy said it's alright and I'm getting paid to pour this ****.



Not just rushed concrete. Undersized beams, timbers, cutting holes in waterproofing. I'm seeing an insane amount of defects. I've also pretty much retired,  but contacts ring me now and then to look at problems. So tip of the iceberg stuff.

I recently saw a flat roof made out of the flooring yellow tongue,  with silicone membrane painted over it. Had a good laugh.


----------



## sptrawler (18 January 2019)

moXJO said:


> Not just rushed concrete. Undersized beams, timbers, cutting holes in waterproofing. I'm seeing an insane amount of defects. I've also pretty much retired,  but contacts ring me now and then to look at problems. So tip of the iceberg stuff.
> 
> I recently saw a flat roof made out of the flooring yellow tongue,  with silicone membrane painted over it. Had a good laugh.



I saw the tilers, pull the tiles off the nib wall in a shower recess three times, before they got it acceptable.


----------



## luutzu (18 January 2019)

moXJO said:


> Not just rushed concrete. Undersized beams, timbers, cutting holes in waterproofing. I'm seeing an insane amount of defects. I've also pretty much retired,  but contacts ring me now and then to look at problems. So tip of the iceberg stuff.
> 
> I recently saw a flat roof made out of the flooring yellow tongue,  with silicone membrane painted over it. Had a good laugh.




Maybe it's the red tongue... 3mm thicker 

Plenty of 50+ year old flats still standing. A bit run down but no signs of cracks. Doesn't look like the new flats would last 20 years without major repair.

My brother just moved in to his new $650K apartment in a fairly nice suburb. 

1 bedroom, maybe 70m2. Cheap floating floor board. Balcony railing/fence didn't even get bolted to the side wall. Any kid there and it's just asking to fall over. 

My sister in law moved in another apartment some years ago. Have to stay at a hotel for a week so they can fix some leaking issue between the bathrooms.


----------



## luutzu (18 January 2019)

sptrawler said:


> I saw the tilers, pull the tiles off the nib wall in a shower recess three times, before they got it acceptable.




Did they water test it after the tiling's one?


----------



## Smurf1976 (18 January 2019)

Well this is a bit of an eye opener.

Hope these dodgy tradies keep well away from anything involving high voltage electricity. 

Keep them away from dams too. Another place where shoddy concrete has the potential to end seriously badly.


----------



## qldfrog (18 January 2019)

Smurf1976 said:


> Well this is a bit of an eye opener.
> 
> Hope these dodgy tradies keep well away from anything involving high voltage electricity.
> 
> Keep them away from dams too. Another place where shoddy concrete has the potential to end seriously badly.



As an engineer who has some co students managing nuclear power plants in France, i was surprised to discover how few things i am allowed to do in this country.building a new house i had to reconnect a 2 way switch as the licensed electrician could not even get that working
I learnt that in year 9 as part of basic cursus, then i discovered that most of the earth cables were not connected. that sadly started and then cemented my view of tradies in australia
Many just jokers which is bad for the good ones around.
It is very difficult in Brisbane at least to find competent tradies from tilers to plumbers and electricians
Only with word of mouths 
If we require licensing and prevent diy jobs, we should also ensure these licenses are not worthless


----------



## qldfrog (18 January 2019)

Maybe a good recession would clear the shockers, be they businesses or tradies...


----------



## sptrawler (18 January 2019)

A lot of the problems IMO, arose when they changed trade training from common curriculum, to competency based training modules. Sounds great in theory, but dumbs down in practice, another system from overseas sold to some dumb arsed bureaucrat.


----------



## Smurf1976 (18 January 2019)

sptrawler said:


> A lot of the problems IMO, arose when they changed trade training from common curriculum, to competency based training modules. Sounds great in theory, but dumbs down in practice, another system from overseas sold to some dumb arsed bureaucrat.



Another problem I think is that for the past ~25 years there has been a relentless push that everyone ought to go to uni straight out of school.

End result is we've got people studying degrees they have no real interest in and the trades are seen as a second rate option.

When it comes to work I've always held the view that doing what you enjoy and are passionate about is the best path. Do it well enough and the money will follow. Same goes for your approach to investing - there's no point trying to master something you have no real interest in or aptitude for if there's another method that works and makes perfect sense to you.


----------



## sptrawler (18 January 2019)

Smurf1976 said:


> Another problem I think is that for the past ~25 years there has been a relentless push that everyone ought to go to uni straight out of school.
> 
> End result is we've got people studying degrees they have no real interest in and the trades are seen as a second rate option.



Absolutely Smurph.
There was an article in last weekends West Australian newspaper, it was about the constant downward standard of university entrance, and students avoiding ATAR subjects to circumvent entrance requirements.
Well a Professor who looked into it said, "some students maybe shouldn't be doing year 11 & 12".
Well I nearly wet myself, another political stuff up, force kids to go on regardless.lol
Now we have 50% of kids going to uni, doing stupid courses for non existing jobs, while we import workers on 457 visa's.
The clever Country, I think not.

Found the article:
https://thewest.com.au/news/educati...ut-still-getting-to-university-ng-b881066817z

All senior high school and Uni's are becoming, is day care for adults.IMO


----------



## Knobby22 (19 January 2019)

As an engineer I have found that there are two types of electricians, the ones that treat their craft as a profession who upskill and develop a pretty good understanding of electricity, switchboard and electrical standards. These are the top guys.

The second lot just wire plugs etc. as little more than a task and lose any real understanding of what they are doing. They need to work under a good electrician or sooner or later they will stuff up. 

I think this is true for engineers also.


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## SirRumpole (19 January 2019)

I'd say good plumbers or electricians get paid a lot more than most uni graduates these days.

Supply and demand.


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## qldfrog (19 January 2019)

For some good news:
https://www.commercialrealestate.co...self-sufficient-in-engineered-timber-by-2020/
I am too pessimistic so very happy to posts these when i can


----------



## sptrawler (19 January 2019)

qldfrog said:


> For some good news:
> https://www.commercialrealestate.co...self-sufficient-in-engineered-timber-by-2020/
> I am too pessimistic so very happy to posts these when i can



I'm with you, so maybe we should post a few of the brighter stories.

https://thewest.com.au/business/min...ithium-game-changer-in-kwinana-ng-b881076970z
The first bit of heavy industry, to be built on the Kwinana strip, for a long time.
Hopefully it is followed with a push to manufacture batteries here.


----------



## moXJO (19 January 2019)

http://www.hempcrete.com.au

Another product that would be interesting to use.


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## Smurf1976 (19 January 2019)

Knobby22 said:


> As an engineer I have found that there are two types of electricians, the ones that treat their craft as a profession who upskill and develop a pretty good understanding of electricity, switchboard and electrical standards. These are the top guys.



Agreed and there's also other people who display aptitude toward things.

One that comes to mind was employed as a cleaning contractor at a power station. That's normal cleaning nothing specialised - clean the toilets, vacuum the floor in the office, normal cleaning same as anywhere else.

Long story short they asked some seriously detailed technical questions to confirm what they'd read as to how the power station worked and the role of that station in the broader system.

After that they were promptly employed as a technical trainee. 

As I've said many times, never judge anyone by their current occupation. What someone's doing now tells you only that, it doesn't tell you what they're capable of.


----------



## Darc Knight (20 January 2019)

Anyone else think that the condition of our Roads are a good Barometer of the State's budget.
QLD's budget has been well and truly strained due to natural disasters and our Roads are currently woeful - potholes everywhere.


----------



## SirRumpole (20 January 2019)

Darc Knight said:


> Anyone else think that the condition of our Roads are a good Barometer of the State's budget.
> QLD's budget has been well and truly strained due to natural disasters and our Roads are currently woeful - potholes everywhere.




They probably won't spend anything until the end of the FY now when they are trying to justify their budget for next year.


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## Darc Knight (20 January 2019)

SirRumpole said:


> They probably won't spend anything until the end of the FY now when they are trying to justify their budget for next year.




Yep, but it's been bad for years now. You don't see road crews filling pot holes anymore. Brisbane roads are atrocious. You agree @wayneL ?


----------



## Smurf1976 (20 January 2019)

Darc Knight said:


> Yep, but it's been bad for years now. You don't see road crews filling pot holes anymore. Brisbane roads are atrocious.



State government roads or local government roads?


----------



## Darc Knight (21 January 2019)

Smurf1976 said:


> State government roads or local government roads?




Sobering thought. It's not just our Main Roads but local government controlled roads and streets which are bad. Everyone needs more funding, bad.
You can see why 4wd and SUV sales now outstrip normal car sales don't they. Almost need a 4wd to get around Brissy.


----------



## wayneL (21 January 2019)

Darc Knight said:


> Yep, but it's been bad for years now. You don't see road crews filling pot holes anymore. Brisbane roads are atrocious. You agree @wayneL ?



Yep, but I reckon the design is worse... Convoluted weirdness, bottlenecks, criss crossing routs on major highways, and slipramps tha just spit you straight out into freeways, oh and the extortion of the tunnels.

Worst roads in Australia.


----------



## wayneL (21 January 2019)

...not to mention mean spirited, revenue collecting speed traps.


----------



## moXJO (21 January 2019)

Shopping centers seem crowded in parts of nsw.
Haven't seen it this packed for a while. I'm not sure what the retail figures are. Food court is always packed,  big expensive stores- not so much.

Bunnings still getting a crowd as well.


----------



## qldfrog (22 January 2019)

Opposite vision here north brisbane, went shopping wo crazy crowd for xmas prep


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## moXJO (22 January 2019)

qldfrog said:


> Opposite vision here north brisbane, went shopping wo crazy crowd for xmas prep



Before Christmas and even Christmas eve,   shops were very quiet for the time of year. But its been packed here once the sales hit. 
People are looking for bargains perhaps.

"Retail figures" and how much people are saving for emergencies (or if at all) currently would be interesting.


----------



## sptrawler (22 January 2019)

Siege in Perth, from the news apparently the couple in their 60's, were going to be evicted from their PPR.
The sad reality, of getting old with debt, and no time to turn the problem around.
Pretty horrific, IMO.

https://thewest.com.au/news/perth-h...ital-after-five-hour-stand-off-ng-b881080854z


----------



## qldfrog (22 January 2019)

https://www.brisbanetimes.com.au/na...nd-business-in-the-lurch-20190117-p50rxp.html
Small business screwed up..and such a shame for the project and our taxes gone in smoke..not even considering the environmental cost


----------



## sptrawler (22 January 2019)

qldfrog said:


> https://www.brisbanetimes.com.au/na...nd-business-in-the-lurch-20190117-p50rxp.html
> Small business screwed up..and such a shame for the project and our taxes gone in smoke..not even considering the environmental cost



I don't think this will be the last fail, connected to the push to renewables, easy money to be made by shonky operators. Head down and keep running, is the call of the day.


----------



## sptrawler (23 January 2019)

sptrawler said:


> Siege in Perth, from the news apparently the couple in their 60's, were going to be evicted from their PPR.
> The sad reality, of getting old with debt, and no time to turn the problem around.
> Pretty horrific, IMO.
> 
> https://thewest.com.au/news/perth-h...ital-after-five-hour-stand-off-ng-b881080854z




An update on the siege couple, apparently they were involved in a business several years ago, that went bad. It's sad what life can dish out to you, even if you try your best, they were obviously too proud to try the 'go fund me' path.
It just sounds like a very sad situation. IMO
Maybe bankruptcy and the pension, was a better choice.

https://www.aussiestockforums.com/t...at-the-street-level.28455/reply?quote=1011181


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## Smurf1976 (23 January 2019)

qldfrog said:


> Small business screwed up..and such a shame for the project and our taxes gone in smoke..not even considering the environmental cost



My view is that the law is deficient here in allowing those responsible to get away with it and pass the buck. 

It happens far too often and it's time these highly paid Directors, CEO's and so on were held fully to account.


----------



## basilio (28 January 2019)

I think a very dangerous situation is developing with the potential  problems surrounding many new high rise apartments. The Opal Towers issue threatens the financial  future of hundreds of people. The situation is unlikely to be limited to just that instance. 
Knock on effects for  the banks as well as people who effectively lose very large amounts on such buildings.

*'We've reached a crisis point': Experts decry ACT building industry*
Send via Email
The overwhelming majority of high-rise apartment buildings in Canberra are likely to have major defects, industry experts have estimated, with one warning the territory's construction industry has reached "crisis point".

Experts in engineering, waterproofing and strata law have told _The Canberra Times _that structural and design flaws would, in their estimations, exist in most new high-rise developments in the nation's capital, ranging from minor to more significant.
https://www.canberratimes.com.au/na...ry-act-building-industry-20190101-p50p4i.html


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## SirRumpole (29 January 2019)

*China, not the house price downturn, the major risk to Australia's economy, says Deloitte*

https://www.abc.net.au/news/2019-01...ice-downturn-the-major-risk-deloitte/10750342


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## qldfrog (30 January 2019)

As i i discussed on other threads, i felt a serious slow down in china when there last 2 weeks agaist the situation in let's say august/ September.i would forecast a chinese gov incentive with matching up trend in our bhp rio shares but there is structural flaw in china and in my opinion it will not take long for that surge of australian optimism to collapse.talking couple weeks not months.time will tell


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## sptrawler (30 January 2019)

I found this article very interesting, sounds as though we are standing on the edge of a cliff, it will be interesting to see if we step off.

https://thewest.com.au/business/mar...o-end-banks-profit-margin-pain-ng-b881083773z

Whatever happens, the changes to NG,CG etc will certainly change the dynamics, one way or another.
Very uncertain times IMO, my gut feeling is, we are in for a change of living standards across the board.
Just my opinion.


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## moXJO (31 January 2019)

SirRumpole said:


> *China, not the house price downturn, the major risk to Australia's economy, says Deloitte*
> 
> https://www.abc.net.au/news/2019-01...ice-downturn-the-major-risk-deloitte/10750342



We have a perfect storm brewing in Australia. And this is just one in many things that will sink us.

Government intervention will decide if we get sunk. Under libs I think we would eat a hard recession. Under labor they would spend their way out of it and kick the  can down the road.

Both options have pros and cons. But the government  (local, state, fed) is too reliant on charging high fees, or high wages. Something would have to give.


----------



## PZ99 (31 January 2019)

There's also the role of the reserve bank - whether they cut rates or resort to printing money as previously alluded.


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## sptrawler (31 January 2019)

PZ99 said:


> There's also the role of the reserve bank - whether they cut rates or resort to printing money as previously alluded.



If they did that (money printing), with us being such a small economy, our $ would crash.
Which would  bring on a whole new level of pain, imagine if our $ went to 40c/U.S, the Chinese would just come over and buy Sydney and Melbourne, then evict everyone.


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## qldfrog (31 January 2019)

https://www.abc.net.au/news/2019-01...is-the-latest-retail-brand-to-enter-/10767230


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## PZ99 (31 January 2019)

sptrawler said:


> If they did that (money printing), with us being such a small economy, our $ would crash.
> Which would  bring on a whole new level of pain, imagine if our $ went to 40c/U.S, the Chinese would just come over and buy Sydney and Melbourne, then evict everyone.



I think it would be worse if we went into recession or lost the AAA rating from horrendous debt.

Or both.


----------



## sptrawler (31 January 2019)

PZ99 said:


> I think it would be worse if we went into recession or lost the AAA rating from horrendous debt.
> 
> Or both.



Certainly interesting times IMO, I think it will come to a head, in the later half of this year.
Hopefully it doesn't pan out, the way it looks like it will, it's o.k if you have a secure job.
Difficult if that isn't the case, gig economy here I come for many, engineers working as couriers etc.


----------



## Smurf1976 (31 January 2019)

moXJO said:


> We have a perfect storm brewing in Australia.



The number of significant businesses, and by that I mean things big enough to have a management structure and turnover valued in $ millions not just a few small jobs etc, is starting to become rather noticeable.

Most concerning, it's the same sort of businesses that hit the headlines last recession. Retailers and various businesses involved with construction.

I'm no permabear but one thing that comes to mind is that back in the 1990's and prior there was an awful lot of talk about "the need for Australia to be internationally competitive" usually expressed in those exact words. Looking at the past few years I don't think I've heard even one single mention of that concept from anyone in politics, it has been abandoned completely as a concept.

Another thing which I see may be of relevance is that our institutions are pretty much all at least somewhat discredited these days. Everything that was rock solid and beyond doubt, things like banks, universities, public utilities, the church, the federal government itself, are all somewhat degraded now in one way or another, they're not the unshakable pillars they once were. That's more a confidence thing than an outright economic one but I think it has some relevance.


----------



## Garpal Gumnut (31 January 2019)

Smurf1976 said:


> The number of significant businesses, and by that I mean things big enough to have a management structure and turnover valued in $ millions not just a few small jobs etc, is starting to become rather noticeable.
> 
> Most concerning, it's the same sort of businesses that hit the headlines last recession. Retailers and various businesses involved with construction.
> 
> ...




The regions could usually be relied upon to keep our economy going when big business went belly up. 

Since the victory of the Socialist Greens in southern state politics this is no longer the case, with their anti agriculture and anti mining stance. 

There is going to be one hell of a depression by the fourth quarter of 2019.

gg


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## SirRumpole (31 January 2019)

The Libs reckoned they created a million jobs in 5 years during the Abbott/Turnbull years, so why has the unemployment rate remained static ?

Immigration means a lot of those jobs were either sucked up by migrants or they added to the dole queues.

It makes one wonder about the priorities and the selling of policies. A million jobs in 5 years (no one mentions whether that is gross or net) sounds a big deal, but it's reckoned to be just normal growth. ( https://www.abc.net.au/news/2019-01...e-years-is-not-as-tough-as-it-sounds/10760098).

So really the priority should be getting unemployment and underemployment down, but the pollies don't want that to happen in case wages break out.

So really the voters are being taken for a ride and being sold b.s.


----------



## sptrawler (1 February 2019)

Smurf1976 said:


> The number of significant businesses, and by that I mean things big enough to have a management structure and turnover valued in $ millions not just a few small jobs etc, is starting to become rather noticeable.
> 
> Most concerning, it's the same sort of businesses that hit the headlines last recession. Retailers and various businesses involved with construction.




I found this interesting smurf.

https://thewest.com.au/business/inf...of-11-billion-metronet-contest-ng-b881091024z
When a company pulls out of a race for a $1B+ contract, you know something is wrong, they are getting nervous.

From the article:
Applications closed in October, and the Government planned to announce the short list by last month and award the contract mid-year.

The December deadline was missed.

Transport Minister Rita Saffioti said last month that multiple proponents had applied and more details would be made available when they were short-listed “within the next few months”.

She said by the end of this year the final contract would be awarded and work would start.


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## moXJO (3 February 2019)

Smurf1976 said:


> Everything that was rock solid and beyond doubt, things like banks, universities, public utilities, the church, the federal government itself, are all somewhat degraded now in one way or another, they're not the unshakable pillars they once were. That's more a confidence thing than an outright economic one but I think it has some relevance.




We are a small fish, Australia needs confidence in its economy and business. World investment funds will happily stop investing in Australia. And thats when it starts hitting the fan.

I remember the last recession and how bad the suicide rate was, even amongst friends and associates. Not something you hope for, but we have become fat, lazy and privileged. Makes me wonder if the youth of today could handle it.


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## sptrawler (4 February 2019)

This IMO, really sums up the problem, in Australia at the moment.
https://www.smh.com.au/business/ban...for-lending-to-the-naive-20190203-p50vfw.html

Maybe it is me, but how the SMH can print this, is unbelievable IMO.


----------



## Smurf1976 (6 February 2019)

Just reading the ASF market news topics I see quite a bit of negative stuff starting to emerge globally.

Toyota profits down 30%. Commonwealth Bank profits down. GE not hiring as many workers in France as they said they wood. UK car sales down. Etc.

There does seem to be an increase in bad news lately.


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## moXJO (20 February 2019)

Valentines day I went out to eat and every restaurant was packed. Thursday night shopping as well and there were people everywhere.
I'm getting mixed reports from retail. Some quiet days and other times they are flat out.

Lot of FUD over housing though. House next door to me is still for sale as well.


----------



## basilio (21 February 2019)

Looks as if pay day loans and similar lenders are having a field day with desperate people. Perhasp an indicator of more over stretched people.
There will be tears before bedtime.

*Payday loans increase as households pushed into risky credit from non-bank lenders*
By Kathryn Diss
Updated about 2 hours ago


* Photo:* Online payday lenders offer easy access to quick credit as traditional lenders pull back. (AAP: Alan Porritt) 
*Related Story:* Cash Converters grilled by Senate inquiry on 'responsible lending' credentials
*Related Story:* How a Perth mother living on a disability pension was charged $760 for a $175 loan
*Related Story:* Could financial plain packaging break Australia's debt addiction?
Debt-stressed home owners and renters are increasingly turning to alternative lenders offering so-called "payday" loans and consumer leases, as falling property prices plunge more households into negative equity and banks crack down on credit.

*Key points:*

Payday lenders are growing faster than banks as mainstream credit tightens
Ease of access to online lenders is pushing households into risky debt situations
There are calls for tighter regulation of the burgeoning sector
A combination of cost of living pressures outstripping CPI, stagnant wages growth and rising levels of mortgage stress is being blamed for putting immense pressure on homeowners, with Australia's household debt to disposable income levels hitting record highs.

https://www.abc.net.au/news/2019-02...-households-pushed-into-risky-credit/10827342


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## basilio (21 February 2019)

Another indicator on the state of the economy.

*Australian retailers shut down by foreign competition*
By business reporter Andrew Robertson
Updated 8 minutes ago


* Photo:* Roger David blamed global competition, stagnant sales and rising fixed costs for its collapse. (Westfield) 
*Related Story:* RBA keeps rates on hold despite slowing economy and crumbling retail sales
*Related Story:* Napoleon Perdis blames 'enormous costs' and economic downturn for makeup shop woes
Australian retailers are currently going under at the rate of about one a month, making everyone in the industry nervous.

Over the last couple of years about two dozen chains have collapsed, with the makeup empire of Napoleon Perdis the latest in an increasingly long line of failures.

It is not just Australian-owned retailers that are struggling, but also some established local outlets of big international players.

Among the big names that have fallen are Roger David, Marcs, Pumpkin Patch, Metalicus, Laura Ashley, Ed Harry, Top Shop, Toys'R'Us, Doughnut Time, Blockbuster Video, David Lawrence, Herringbone and Rhodes & Beckett.

Not only is low wages growth starting to bite consumer spending, but a big wave of foreign raiders is also taking its toll.
https://www.abc.net.au/news/2019-02...ers-shut-down-by-foreign-competition/10832062


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## moXJO (21 February 2019)

Went out to the shops tonight and the center was empty. Different location from last week and probably the lower middle class area compared to the mid to upper middle class last week. Weather is a bit off though.
Walked past one of those nail and beauty stores. And one staff member was giving the other staff member a foot rub. 

I don't know how some of the smaller retailers afford to stay open.
Specialty stores must do it tough. 

I'm finding it difficult to decide how things are fairing out there. Really mixed messages when I look around.


----------



## sptrawler (21 February 2019)

Yep, it looks like the only ones that are going to survive this, are the ones on welfare.
Cant be sacked, gauranteed income and the tax man cant hit them.lol


----------



## jbocker (22 February 2019)

Was talking to a neighbour at my daughters house yesterday. The guy said his wife works at a bank (one of the big 4) had a couple in trying to juggle their loans 3 investments and a home. From my understanding had held them for a while, but were soon to go P and I payments which was seriously going to impact their costs. Their market prices have slumped.
It looked like that there very likely option was to sell the lot and still owe the bank.

I know I have read this thing happening many times but when you talk with someone having to deal with it confirming what I have read, it starts to hit home how close many must be.


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## basilio (22 February 2019)

sptrawler said:


> Yep, it looks like the only ones that are going to survive this, are the ones on welfare.
> Cant be sacked, gauranteed income and the tax man cant hit them.lol




Really ? I don't think that will be allowed to happen. If/when SHTF welfare payments will be on the chopping block as well.

The sad fact in 2019 is that unemployment benefits won't keep any normal family afloat for any length of time. House and or rent payments almost always as much as current Newstart payments.

Then of course if one person in a two income household loses their job  the household income is no longer capable of supporting them - and they cannot claim Newstart.


----------



## sptrawler (22 February 2019)

basilio said:


> Really ? I don't think that will be allowed to happen. If/when SHTF welfare payments will be on the chopping block as well.
> 
> The sad fact in 2019 is that unemployment benefits won't keep any normal family afloat for any length of time. House and or rent payments almost always as much as current Newstart payments.
> 
> Then of course if one person in a two income household loses their job  the household income is no longer capable of supporting them - and they cannot claim Newstart.



Which will push house prices lower still, isn't that what everyone wants?
Those that lose everything are just collateral damage, as long as those who haven't saved can get into the market all is good.
The ones who got burnt have saved once, they can obviously do it again, the new better Australia. Lol
It will be interesting when those that do save stop, the system will really fall over.
Then I guess that will be the time, to raid the super.


----------



## qldfrog (22 February 2019)

And do not forget the assets, how on hell hel these people sitting on millions ,house or bank accounts, not contribute by not earning income, nasty rich basrards, iets do a home tax and a financial tax


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## Toyota Lexcen (22 February 2019)

people live quite comfortably on Newstart Allowance (or DSP). typically 3-5 people in a house in the private market

not in Capital cities though, mostly regional towns 60-90mins away

also "community services" like Uniting, Salvos etc are vary active in buying properties/managing properties and moving people to these regions on behalf of the TAXPAYER


----------



## basilio (27 February 2019)

Another analysis on where house prices could go in 2019 and why.

*18 reasons why property prices will fall further *
By *Su-Lin Tan*
Updated Feb 26, 2019 — 10.33pm, first published at 2.11pm
The housing market has taken a turn for the worse moving deeper into the decline of a debt-financed asset bubble, possibly driving house prices to fall by as much as 25 per cent in 2019 on nominal terms, according to housing bear and analyst LF Economics.

The group made up of Lindsay David and Philip Soos, who have authored books on boom and bust in housing markets, lists 18 factors that are putting extreme pressure on the Sydney and Melbourne markets.

Their baseline prediction is a 15 per cent to 20 per cent fall in prices just in 2019 although 25 per cent is possible.
https://www.afr.com/real-estate/18-reasons-why-property-prices-will-fall-further-20190225-h1bpfc


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## Junior (27 February 2019)

Toyota Lexcen said:


> people live quite comfortably on Newstart Allowance (or DSP). typically 3-5 people in a house in the private market




Comfortably?  Really?  Newstart is $550 per fortnight for a Single person with no dependants.  After your share of Rent and Utilities....what's left?


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## Toyota Lexcen (27 February 2019)

Not much, but what do they need? weekly costs may be 250$, rent, food & utilities.

A girlfriend moves in, have a child, they are actually very resourceful people, very sneaky people and they survive well.

These individuals do a bit of cash work, mow lawns, might have a brother or father who needs some cash work done, do a shift at fish n chip shop, 1 day a week.

Victoria towns like Bendigo & Ballarat are increasing population as more people move into the one house. Their entertainment is provided by the council with free events.


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## qldfrog (3 March 2019)

https://www.abc.net.au/news/2019-03...gdp-per-capita-recession/10858812?pfmredir=sm
Yes we are all getting poorer, just more of us


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## basilio (3 March 2019)

Toyota Lexcen said:


> Not much, but what do they need? weekly costs may be 250$, rent, food & utilities.
> 
> A girlfriend moves in, have a child, they are actually very resourceful people, very sneaky people and they survive well.
> 
> ...




"These people ?" What about those with families ? Those who have bought a house or a car or have any sort of financial commitments that were dependent on keeping a reasonably paying job ?

What happens when *anything* goes wrong in the lives of people living on the smell of an oily rage ?
This picture of the unemployed living the life of Riley* on  $225 a week  (That is Newstart) *is not accurate.
https://www.businessinsider.com.au/long-term-unemployment-stories-2012-2?r=US&IR=T


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## Smurf1976 (3 March 2019)

qldfrog said:


> Yes we are all getting poorer, just more of us



Inflation will be the ultimate outcome I expect.

Soaring house prices since about the year 2000 and more recently soaring costs for essentials such as, in particular, utilities.

Wages will catch up at some point or the debts will be written off in practice by the process of inflation. Probably a combination of both.

Invest accordingly.


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## Toyota Lexcen (3 March 2019)

Sorry but it is accurate. They move to suburbs /towns where unemployment is high.

There a place called Maryborough VIC, did have the highest population of single mothers in Aus.

They get housing, welfare in what ever form its called, spouse/partners payment (gov or partner) the kids get tennis lessons paid for, footy club memberships and gear paid for. 

They get up in the morning and have a cuppa tea and enjoy the day at home or down the street. They pay $3 for packet of Panadiene everyone else pay $16.99. 

The windows need painting so maintenance man comes around and does some work, This is costing 158Billion a year.

An umeployed partner moves in so they can split the bills and costs that they do have.


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## basilio (3 March 2019)

Toyota Lexcen said:


> Sorry but it is accurate. They move to suburbs /towns where unemployment is high.
> 
> There a place called Maryborough VIC, did have the highest population of single mothers in Aus.
> 
> ...




We can both be right TL. Yep Maryborough exists. Yes it is one place single mothers can afford to live in. But don't pretend this is representative of the  whole welfare bill.  And don't believe that these single mothers are somehow getting it easy. When the kids are 8 they go onto New start.  That's when the fun starts  and people try to live on a pittance.

And the rest of the unemployed? As I mentioned they are trying to exist on oily rags. 

https://www.csmc.org.au/information-referrals/centrelink-and-government-payments/


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## Toyota Lexcen (3 March 2019)

Multiple people in the house. Think I saw 15hrs of effort is it to satisfy payments.


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## boofhead (3 March 2019)

Maybe we need to put pensioners in to shared housing if you are unhappy about newstart recipients https://www.aph.gov.au/About_Parlia...ry_Library/pubs/rp/BudgetReview201819/Welfare


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## qldfrog (3 March 2019)

I personally believe we should have a commin basic minimum safety net, very basic and small by design,liveable but not much more, and the same for all.unemployed, pension,disability etc with low access criteria but all input taxable.
pension should be for all but simplify the system,
The more complex, the more rort, the more costs to maintain
We end up with massive administration..but that is maybe a policy, creating more useless jobs


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## Junior (4 March 2019)

boofhead said:


> Maybe we need to put pensioners in to shared housing if you are unhappy about newstart recipients https://www.aph.gov.au/About_Parlia...ry_Library/pubs/rp/BudgetReview201819/Welfare




If Newstart is lavish at $550/fortnight, try the Age Pension of $916 per fortnight.  Living the dream!


----------



## Toyota Lexcen (4 March 2019)

Outside the Parliament dining and reception rooms on Thursday night Maurie (he's made dresses for Shirley Bassey) was preparing his double swag, same as he has done for the last six-and-a-half years.

*"I've got used to being here which may sound lazy at the age of 72 but right now it suits me. Nobody starves in this city by the way, we do a lot better than people with mortgages,'' he said.

"Eventually I will go and stay with my cousin, he's only at Neutral Bay, so I'm covered. I don't really need the housing - but some people do."
*
from an article on SMH today, we do a lot better than people with mortgages!


----------



## basilio (7 March 2019)

More down news on the economy. Makes one wonder about job security for many people and the impact a sharp increase in unemployment will  have on housing and the rest of the economy.


*Retailers still in a world of pain as sales flatline, while construction downturn becomes more entrenched*
By business reporter Stephen Letts
Updated 16 minutes ago




Australia's retailers have started the year where they ended it — in a world of pain.

Retail sales edged up just 0.1 per cent in January, a much weaker result than expected.

Market economists had expected a rise of 0.4 per cent, if for no other reason than January's figures were coming off a very poor result in December, where sales fell by 0.4 per cent.

The consumer sector underpins around 60 per cent of the Australian economy and its weakness in recent months was a significant contributor to poor fourth quarter GDP figures.

There was also more bad news in another big chunk of the economy, construction, where activity continued to fall in February.

The Ai Group's performance of construction index showed the industry-wide downturn was becoming more entrenched with all four key sectors — apartment, house, commercial and engineering — continuing to contact.

*It is the fourth successive month activity has contracted.
https://www.abc.net.au/news/2019-03-07/retail-sales-and-trade-balance-january-2019/10878424*


Construction underpins another 15 per cent of the economy and accounts for around 9 per cent of total employment.


----------



## Smurf1976 (7 March 2019)

Anything involving sheds, carports, gates, fences etc must be outright booming at least in SA.

Was very hard to get anyone to even reply to an email or answer the phone for some work I wanted done.

OK then, I'll do it myself....


----------



## IFocus (7 March 2019)

Smurf1976 said:


> Anything involving sheds, carports, gates, fences etc must be outright booming at least in SA.
> 
> Was very hard to get anyone to even reply to an email or answer the phone for some work I wanted done.
> 
> OK then, I'll do it myself....




Haha thats the thing about being a tradesman (electrical especially) you can pretty much do any thing short of brain surgery


----------



## qldfrog (28 March 2019)

https://www.abc.net.au/news/rural/2019-03-27/free-range-rhodavale-pork-closes-down/10944588


----------



## sptrawler (28 March 2019)

https://theurbandeveloper.com/artic...-enters-administration-amid-market-headwinds-
From the article:
Partridge said that the building products manufacturer would be seeking opportunities in the United States, as the company’s earnings were affected by high energy prices and market declines.


----------



## qldfrog (28 March 2019)

https://www.couriermail.com.au/news...e/news-story/1d0c04ded82c9597d2436d35d4187d3262 Coast construction firms on brink of collapse
SHOCK REPORT More than 60 Gold Coast construction companies are on the brink of collapse, as a taskforce formed to tackle systemic problems in the industry urges subcontractors to contact them with complaints.


----------



## Garpal Gumnut (28 March 2019)

We are rooned.

Or maybe not

gg


----------



## orr (3 April 2019)

a couple of worthwhile paragraphs to chew on from Richard Dennis;

"_Australia is one of the richest countries in the world for the simple reason that, over the past 70 years, we have avoided war on our own soil, invested heavily in our people, encouraged people to trust each other, and built the kind of social and economic infrastructure that makes individuals and companies believe that investing in new ideas and new ways of doing things will be a safe and profitable thing to do.

History and international experience make clear that it is not the specifics of a country’s tax or industrial relations system that determines economic success, but the willingness and ability of communities to trust each other, trust their institutions and work towards agreed long-term goals. If cutting taxes was the key to growing economies, then the Nordic countries would be broke_."


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## Smurf1976 (3 April 2019)

orr said:


> a couple of worthwhile paragraphs to chew on from Richard Dennis



In that context I think the loss of trust is a problem.

Banks, Government, Utilities, the Public Service and the Church - all are significant things in society, the first three are key pillars of the economy, and were held in reasonably high regard until quite recently.

Regardless of who wins this election, we need stable government. The same Prime Minster standing for re-election in 2022 as is elected to government in 2019. No leadership changes unless due to genuine circumstances (death etc).

Public confidence in the banks needs to be restored. Regulation is a necessary step in practice.

Confidence in all types of utilities needs to be restored. We need to return to the days of reasonable efficiency and innovation rather than ideology which has put us behind technically and sent prices through the roof.

We need to accept that the Public Service is what it is and that it's value is in expertise and doing what the community needs but that it will never have the efficiency and profit motive of private enterprise. We need to stop trying to fit square pegs into round holes and see the value where it lies, returning to the days of PS bosses having security of tenure and thus a willingness to challenge and guide those in politics rather than the reverse.

For the Church I have no solution other than to say let's focus on getting the rest right.


----------



## SirRumpole (3 April 2019)

Smurf1976 said:


> We need to accept that the Public Service is what it is and that it's value is in expertise and doing what the community needs but that it will never have the efficiency and profit motive of private enterprise. We need to stop trying to fit square pegs into round holes and see the value where it lies, returning to the days of PS bosses having security of tenure and thus a willingness to challenge and guide those in politics rather than the reverse.




I definitely agree with that. A lot of people in the PS could get higher salaries elsewhere but they find the notion of providing a service more appealing to that of making money, most of the one's I've met have been very professional.

There are always some duds, and hopefully the radical feminist Lefties have taken their hate speech against WASMP's and gone elsewhere.


----------



## qldfrog (4 April 2019)

In the notion of trust, what about the notion of trust toward the taxpayer?
Before buying my own company car (1 man business) i claimed fully legitimate business kms...and received a very agressive generic letter from the ato basically telling me there was high chance i was a crook.my germanic swiss style of law following ego was feeling more than insulted.
That was a couple years ago.paid taxes to the max million plus in the last decades.i do not cheat
Then just this year, i have above BAS and tax returns where this is already recorded, to directly advice the ato of each paycheck automatically via software,at my cost around $10 to 20$ a month for most providers
The ato does not even provide the service
So here goes another $200 a years and a few hours again of my life,
And last month, receive another very passive agressive letter telling me that IT contractors are all cheats and avoiding taxes and that for every payment to contractors/ contracting companies that my company does, i have to informed iimmediately the ato
As if consultants were the ones being paid cash in Australia..seriously

So more red tape, costs, time at the office in the evening instead of with family

So what about a thank you letter
Dear Xxx, in the last 5 y, you contributed xxx$ .In taxes which allowed for xxx children to attend school, put yyy police officer on the street etc
Similarly, Mr YYY,
In the last 5 y, you received xxx$ in help from the government which was paid  by the tax contribution of your fellow taxpayer citizens.Please use wisely
Not leftist enough?


----------



## Smurf1976 (4 April 2019)

qldfrog said:


> In the notion of trust, what about the notion of trust toward the taxpayer?



What I see there is a need for major simplification of the tax system.

Get rid of the complexity and that also gets rid of most means by which paying tax can be avoided thus resolving most of the issues.


----------



## SirRumpole (4 April 2019)

Smurf1976 said:


> What I see there is a need for major simplification of the tax system.
> 
> Get rid of the complexity and that also gets rid of most means by which paying tax can be avoided thus resolving most of the issues.




Most of the avoidance seems to be concerned with allowable deductions, so maybe eliminate or simplify these so that only a small range of expenses can be allowed, or just charge say 5% on turnover.


----------



## explod (4 April 2019)

Seniors United Australia


----------



## HelloU (4 April 2019)

SirRumpole said:


> Most of the avoidance seems to be concerned with allowable deductions, so maybe eliminate or simplify these so that only a small range of expenses can be allowed, or just charge say 5% on turnover.



to twist that same thinking into its opposite ......... all of the avoidance is to do with lowering taxable income/profits.

so why does it happen?   for the same reason that many will walk past a 5c coin on the ground but will pick up a $2 coin.

I reckon by lowering income/profit taxes we would actually collect more tax ...... because at some low taxation level it no longer becomes worth the effort to avoid it - so we are happy to just pay it rather than go to the time and effort to avoid it.

At some point going for a fish becomes way more attractive than collating the latest bunch of pencil receipts ........ and doing cash in hand is no longer worth the risks cos the rewards are not enough.


----------



## sptrawler (4 April 2019)

That is where, an all encompassing consumption tax and a much lower income tax works.


----------



## qldfrog (4 April 2019)

SirRumpole said:


> Most of the avoidance seems to be concerned with allowable deductions, so maybe eliminate or simplify these so that only a small range of expenses can be allowed, or just charge say 5% on turnover.



for once France had a decent system in place: you could claim 5 or 10pc..do not remember exact figure of you income as expense, seems fairer, clothes, travel, etc
It costs to work, it costs to manage portfolio..and that is it.In specific cases, you could ask for an item by item claim, but better be substantiated


----------



## sptrawler (13 April 2019)

BHP to cut travelling allowance, hopefully the push toward employing local labour continues, Country towns have been decimated by FIFO. IMO

https://thewest.com.au/news/wa/fifo-contractors-lose-travel-pay-from-bhp-ng-b881162594z


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## moXJO (15 April 2019)

We need to see better tax spending by government. Not ways to squeeze more out of us.


----------



## Humid (18 April 2019)

sptrawler said:


> BHP to cut travelling allowance, hopefully the push toward employing local labour continues, Country towns have been decimated by FIFO. IMO
> 
> https://thewest.com.au/news/wa/fifo-contractors-lose-travel-pay-from-bhp-ng-b881162594z




Decimated is a bit of a stretch
Iron ore these days are mostly satellite type mines feeding the hub and hours from towns.
So you would still need to stay in camp and still not be with your family
Just as easy to go to the airport and live in a place with real services


----------



## Garpal Gumnut (18 April 2019)

sptrawler said:


> BHP to cut travelling allowance, hopefully the push toward employing local labour continues, Country towns have been decimated by FIFO. IMO
> 
> https://thewest.com.au/news/wa/fifo-contractors-lose-travel-pay-from-bhp-ng-b881162594z




Good one.

Good for regional areas. 

Good for BHP. 

During the "mining boom" in Mackay one of the more sickening sights were planeloads of FIFO's arriving and getting on buses out west to the mines.

Bugger them losing $800 a month. 

They can well afford it. 

Hopefully locals in Central and North Queensland can be employed rather than these tories from down south. 

gg


----------



## Humid (18 April 2019)

They have direct flights from Brisvegas to the Pilbara
You can have all your flogs back too


----------



## SirRumpole (4 June 2019)

Consumer spending stagnates, interest rates cut, not a sign of a strong economy is it ?

https://www.abc.net.au/news/2019-06-04/retail-sales-april-2019/11176730


----------



## moXJO (4 June 2019)

SirRumpole said:


> Consumer spending stagnates, interest rates cut, not a sign of a strong economy is it ?
> 
> https://www.abc.net.au/news/2019-06-04/retail-sales-april-2019/11176730



Seen this coming for a while. 

Interest rate cut was a very big move from the rba. They are basically out of ammo as well. Huge call and not a good sign imo.


----------



## PZ99 (5 June 2019)

That's the price we pay for prioritising austere budgets over economic stimulus.

One believes the ultimate panacea will be tax reform in future budgets


----------



## sptrawler (5 June 2019)

I guess living standards rose with the mining boom, followed by the housing boom, now we look around for the next boom.
The problem with the Government recklessly spending is, it gives a sugar hit with jobs in building the infrastructure, but when it is built it usually runs at a loss. 
This then means taxes have to go up to fund it, so it becomes a drag on living standards, it obviously is a difficult balancing act.


----------



## moXJO (5 June 2019)

You would think that the price of things would have to go down from here. Unfortunately high wages, insurances, rents, electricity, etc- seems we are stuck in a dangerous position. Mass business closure would seem likely. I know a few in the building game packed their business in for a regular job as they were earning more for less stress. Their employees were then out of a job, so it snowballs from there.

I have vague memories of the lead-up to the 90s recession in which huge amounts  of competition bit the dust. But it was easier to do business back then. 

Feels like this boom run has held up way past what it should have.  I'm probably more bearish coming from a building background. If our dollar keeps dropping we may be saved yet.


----------



## Smurf1976 (5 June 2019)

moXJO said:


> You would think that the price of things would have to go down from here. Unfortunately high wages, insurances, rents, electricity, etc- seems we are stuck in a dangerous position.



As I've noted many times, even if we just take electricity well the vast majority of businesses use at least some. It ranges from a trivial cost for someone like a self employed tradie through to around 25% of _revenue_ for some manufacturing industries but it's there as a cost input for most.

Other utilities likewise. Most businesses will have some use of water and communication. Not all but a significant number use gas for cooking, industrial processes or simply to heat the office building. Most will have some sort of insurance for something and so on.

Go back 25 years and Australia was very much at the cheap end of the range when it came to all forms of energy. Second or third cheapest among developed countries depending on what energy source you were looking at. These days we're at the opposite end with costs being very much at the upper end of the range.


----------



## sptrawler (5 June 2019)

Smurf1976 said:


> Go back 25 years and Australia was very much at the cheap end of the range when it came to all forms of energy. Second or third cheapest among developed countries depending on what energy source you were looking at. These days we're at the opposite end with costs being very much at the upper end of the range.




The real issue is, the problem is going to get worse, as the only politically palatable way ahead is the most time consuming and expensive.


----------



## sptrawler (5 June 2019)

We cause a lot of our own outcomes, the greens pushed to extract and process the gas offshore, well it has nearly come to fruition.

https://thewest.com.au/business/ene...rgo-as-mooring-issues-resolved-ng-b881221484z

No jobs, no downstream processing, no addition to domestic reticulation, just up and out. Priceless


----------



## SirRumpole (6 June 2019)

The truth behind the "strong economy" myth.

https://www.theguardian.com/busines...overnment-has-run-the-economy-into-the-ground


----------



## sptrawler (6 June 2019)

SirRumpole said:


> The truth behind the "strong economy" myth.
> 
> https://www.theguardian.com/busines...overnment-has-run-the-economy-into-the-ground



Weren't we just talking about this on another thread.


----------



## SirRumpole (6 June 2019)

sptrawler said:


> Weren't we just talking about this on another thread.




Could be. It's an important topic.


----------



## sptrawler (6 June 2019)

SirRumpole said:


> Could be. It's an important topic.



As usual it is the way it is presented, that gets the journo's in manure,IMO.
They wouldn't be in trouble with the AFP, if they stuck to facts, rather than personal embellishment, sensationalism and bias.


----------



## SirRumpole (6 June 2019)

sptrawler said:


> As usual it is the way it is presented, that gets the journo's in manure,IMO.
> They wouldn't be in trouble with the AFP, if they stuck to facts, rather than personal embellishment, sensationalism and bias.




I think you have cocked up sp. The piece I quoted was about the economy, not the AFP.


----------



## Humid (6 June 2019)

sptrawler said:


> We cause a lot of our own outcomes, the greens pushed to extract and process the gas offshore, well it has nearly come to fruition.
> 
> https://thewest.com.au/business/ene...rgo-as-mooring-issues-resolved-ng-b881221484z
> 
> No jobs, no downstream processing, no addition to domestic reticulation, just up and out. Priceless




I thought they had the go ahead for the project onshore and the big players threw in the towel for economic reasons


----------



## sptrawler (6 June 2019)

SirRumpole said:


> I think you have cocked up sp. The piece I quoted was about the economy, not the AFP.



I was generalising, it is the same with all articles, only one side of an argument is presented, the reporters.
It wasn't that specific article.


----------



## sptrawler (6 June 2019)

Humid said:


> I thought they had the go ahead for the project onshore and the big players threw in the towel for economic reasons



I thought Barnett stopped fighting for onshore processing, because he was getting no backing and the press was pushing the Green/ Aboriginal heritage barrow.
The companies always wanted to process offshore, it is much cheaper, but it would have really opened up the Kimberley, if we had gas reticulated and an abundance of water.


----------



## Humid (6 June 2019)

I don’t think Woodside ever wanted to build it there if you pipe gas to Darwin you could of piped it to Karratha 
I think Broome was Barnett’s little pet


----------



## sptrawler (6 June 2019)

Humid said:


> I don’t think Woodside ever wanted to build it there if you pipe gas to Darwin you could of piped it to Karratha
> I think Broome was Barnett’s little pet



It was, to get gas to the Kimberley, so it could be used to pump water to irrigate the NW.


----------



## sptrawler (6 June 2019)

Humid said:


> I don’t think Woodside ever wanted to build it there if you pipe gas to Darwin you could of piped it to Karratha
> I think Broome was Barnett’s little pet



I think in the future, W.A will rue the day they chose not to follow Barnett's dream.

https://thewest.com.au/business/agr...heavy-handed-water-corporation-ng-b881221481z

When the gas is gone, so are the opportunities it presented, all because of politics.


----------



## Humid (6 June 2019)

https://www.smh.com.au/business/kimberley-keeps-giving-20090904-fbfo.html

Cheapest option is pipe it to Karratha 
Barnett continues to push for Broome and it ends up off shore
They had approval and pulled out on economic reasons
Barnett’s to blame for this


----------



## Smurf1976 (6 June 2019)

sptrawler said:


> When the gas is gone, so are the opportunities it presented, all because of politics.



Focusing on the economy aspect, the big problem in Australia is that we keep giving away opportunities.

We have a mentality akin to running a quarry for road construction gravel and deciding that it's all too hard and we just can't be bothered doing anything with those gold nuggets we keep digging up. So we crush them and the dust goes in the road along with the rest of the gravel because that's the easy way.

A ship sitting offshore extracting a non-renewable resource and simply selling it without even bringing it ashore is in much the same category really. It's turning gold into gravel sort of thinking to be doing that.

Keep giving away so much opportunity and it's no wonder the economy has ended up where it is.


----------



## trading_rookie (6 June 2019)

*The Lucky Country by Donald Horne *

_'Australia is a lucky country, run mainly by second-rate people who share its luck.'_

The phrase 'the lucky country' has become part of our lexicon; it's forever being invoked in debates about the Australian way of life, but is all too often misused by those blind to Horne's irony.


----------



## sptrawler (6 June 2019)

trading_rookie said:


> *The Lucky Country by Donald Horne *
> 
> _'Australia is a lucky country, run mainly by second-rate people who share its luck.'_
> 
> The phrase 'the lucky country' has become part of our lexicon; it's forever being invoked in debates about the Australian way of life, but is all too often misused by those blind to Horne's irony.



Australia has been a lucky country, because it has a large amount of natural resources and a small population to support from its wealth.
Both of these things are going in opposite directions, when the resources are gone and the population has grown, it is just another third world country.


----------



## Humid (6 June 2019)

https://www.theguardian.com/busines...overnment-has-run-the-economy-into-the-ground

Looking forward to some more sound economic management.....Bloody Shorten


----------



## sptrawler (7 June 2019)

Humid said:


> https://www.theguardian.com/busines...overnment-has-run-the-economy-into-the-ground
> 
> Looking forward to some more sound economic management.....Bloody Shorten



There is an echo, Rumpy posted that up, further down the page.


----------



## jbocker (7 June 2019)

Humid said:


> https://www.smh.com.au/business/kimberley-keeps-giving-20090904-fbfo.html
> 
> Cheapest option is pipe it to Karratha
> Barnett continues to push for Broome and it ends up off shore
> ...



That article was from 2009. Not sure how you blame Barnett for this?
Woodside didn't build onshore Broome because the estimate was enormously expensive to construct the plant. In excess of 80Billion. Woodside spent a long time and well over a billion on the feasibility study.
The WPL Browse gas fields have not ended up anywhere yet.


----------



## Humid (7 June 2019)

jbocker said:


> That article was from 2009. Not sure how you blame Barnett for this?
> Woodside didn't build onshore Broome because the estimate was enormously expensive to construct the plant. In excess of 80Billion. Woodside spent a long time and well over a billion on the feasibility study.
> The WPL Browse gas fields have not ended up anywhere yet.




So you think Woodside chose Broome and then figured out it cost too much
As I said pipe it to Karratha but that didn’t suit Barnett’s agenda.

The independent assessors included Tom Hatton, who joined the EPA board in 2014 and is set to take over as chairman in November. The other delegates were EPA board member Glen McLeod, who joined in 2013, and Gerard Early, the former deputy secretary of the federal environment department. 

Speaking to reporters on Monday, the WA premier, Colin Barnett, suggested that the site would still be developed as a gas hub, but not by Woodside.

“Well I think what you’re seeing is another step in approving the site at James Price Point so you can have future industry there,” Barnett said.

“That won’t be the Browse gas project itself but into the future there may well be an LNG site established there.”

Barnett said that Woodside’s decision to use a floating gas hub was disappointing because it “reduced the opportunities for Western Australia,” but remarked that “there are several other opportunities out there yet to be developed.”


----------



## Humid (7 June 2019)

sptrawler said:


> There is an echo, Rumpy posted that up, further down the page.




Things tend to echo in empty spaces.....


----------



## jbocker (7 June 2019)

Humid said:


> So you think Woodside chose Broome and then figured out it cost too much
> As I said pipe it to Karratha but that didn’t suit Barnett’s agenda.
> 
> The independent assessors included Tom Hatton, who joined the EPA board in 2014 and is set to take over as chairman in November. The other delegates were EPA board member Glen McLeod, who joined in 2013, and Gerard Early, the former deputy secretary of the federal environment department.
> ...



Not sure of the relevance of the independent assessors, why are you mentioning them? Woodside had already come to a no build decision in 2013. 
Woodside originally estimated 40+Billion, and the govt did want an onshore option. The cost blowout with everything running rampant was far too great. FLNG was still conceptual, FPSOs (ie Oil processed offshore) was established and it is only a matter of time technology would enable FLNG, and note Shell is just putting FLNG Prelude online now. Shell is much bigger of course than innovative minnow Woodside.
Yes Karratha is an option but remember this is not just a Woodside decision, other and differing JV partners are involved and it is still a long way to Karratha. The HUGE advantage is there are established facilities there of course. I think Woodside is more interested in getting Scarborough Gas going there first. Time will tell.
Probably will be a gas hub at JPP one day. I don't think I will be around to see it.


----------



## Humid (7 June 2019)

jbocker said:


> Not sure of the relevance of the independent assessors, why are you mentioning them? Woodside had already come to a no build decision in 2013.
> Woodside originally estimated 40+Billion, and the govt did want an onshore option. The cost blowout with everything running rampant was far too great. FLNG was still conceptual, FPSOs (ie Oil processed offshore) was established and it is only a matter of time technology would enable FLNG, and note Shell is just putting FLNG Prelude online now. Shell is much bigger of course than innovative minnow Woodside.
> Yes Karratha is an option but remember this is not just a Woodside decision, other and differing JV partners are involved and it is still a long way to Karratha. The HUGE advantage is there are established facilities there of course. I think Woodside is more interested in getting Scarborough Gas going there first. Time will tell.
> Probably will be a gas hub at JPP one day. I don't think I will be around to see it.




You asked how I blamed Barnett 
This shows him still flogging a gas plant with no gas
The assessors just includes a date.
I’m saying he chose the location not Woodside


----------



## Humid (7 June 2019)

https://www.watoday.com.au/national...price-point-fight-mcgowan-20120504-1y40n.html


----------



## Humid (7 June 2019)

https://www.gastoday.com.au/2018/11/21/woodside-seeks-approvals-for-browse-lng-plan/


----------



## moXJO (8 June 2019)

There was an article on cafe owners closing down recently. Basically you can't turn a dollar anymore. And going into normal jobs. Running a small business can be a real pain.

People stop spending on the luxuries.
I know I keep harping back,  but the gyms in the 80s felt the pinch first. Heaps of them, then it felt like they vanished overnight.
The owners and the employees are then out looking for a job. And so it snowballs.


----------



## qldfrog (10 June 2019)

And you add the scam of the skilled migrants scheme
Some hard facts here
https://www.macrobusiness.com.au/2019/06/australias-skilled-migrant-visa-sham/
We are importing mostly non skilled migrants for jobs which are not there
Facts..just facts


----------



## SirRumpole (10 June 2019)

Smurf1976 said:


> Focusing on the economy aspect, the big problem in Australia is that we keep giving away opportunities.
> 
> We have a mentality akin to running a quarry for road construction gravel and deciding that it's all too hard and we just can't be bothered doing anything with those gold nuggets we keep digging up. So we crush them and the dust goes in the road along with the rest of the gravel because that's the easy way.
> 
> ...




Yeah, we can't do electric car manufacturing because we are just a load of dumb shites who only know about pulling stuff out of the ground or destroying forests.


----------



## qldfrog (10 June 2019)

No, we can not because we have a minimal wage well above the rest of the world, no bank ready to loan you money, 
if any loan, rate one of the highest in the world. Still..
No quick building, years of red green tape and aporoval circus
Once built, H&S at every corner and unions circling for blood if big enough project
And if you do it, one of the highest company tax rate
As explained befire, any business which can be based elsewhere has no sane reason to stay here.
From it startup to engineering or finance
So we are left with RE,mining,farming and retail for the locals... look at the rich list for australia


----------



## sptrawler (10 June 2019)

There is no easy answer to the problem, but the Government has to start and demand that downstream processing is done here, or charge them extra for lost opportunity.IMO
What is happening ATM, is nothing short of tax avoidance, where down stream processing isn't practical a volumetric tax needs to applied to the resource.


----------



## SirRumpole (10 June 2019)

qldfrog said:


> No, we can not because we have a minimal wage well above the rest of the world, no bank ready to loan you money,
> if any loan, rate one of the highest in the world. Still..
> No quick building, years of red green tape and aporoval circus
> Once built, H&S at every corner and unions circling for blood if big enough project
> ...




I'd be happy with a corporate tax rate of 20% if it was certain that the companies would actually pay that rate and not avoid it by various means like "royalty" payments to their parent company overseas.

There needs to be a trade off between lower company tax rates and stronger anti avoidance measures, otherwise companies will just say thanks for the lower tax rates , but we'll reduce that even further by using tax loopholes.


----------



## qldfrog (10 June 2019)

Sirrumpole, all companies are not big corporates, most people are employed in sme and even  big companies start small
At the moment, these companies are too small to do tax avoidance and still overtaxed ar 30pc or so, so no right minded entrepreneur will start or stay in oz, and if you start here, you will be crushed by os concurrents
So sad


----------



## Smurf1976 (10 June 2019)

I could summarise what's being said here by saying that everyone's lamenting the loss in Australia of the large scale practical application of science and technology, that is primarily engineering and manufacturing, and that we have instead reverted to the 19th Century Australian economic focus of primary production and services for the local market.

That's what it comes down to really and it has to be said that it is the large scale application of science and technology which is the defining characteristic of wealthy democracies. Those who rely on primary production and low value services tend to be poor and/or not particularly democratic.

There's the odd exception to the above but it's true for the vast majority of all countries on earth.


----------



## Knobby22 (10 June 2019)

Smurf1976 said:


> I could summarise what's being said here by saying that everyone's lamenting the loss in Australia of the large scale practical application of science and technology, that is primarily engineering and manufacturing, and that we have instead reverted to the 19th Century Australian economic focus of primary production and services for the local market.
> 
> That's what it comes down to really and it has to be said that it is the large scale application of science and technology which is the defining characteristic of wealthy democracies. Those who rely on primary production and low value services tend to be poor and/or not particularly democratic.
> 
> There's the odd exception to the above but it's true for the vast majority of all countries on earth.



Still good at biotech.


----------



## qldfrog (11 June 2019)

Because biotech has a captured market founded by taxes here
Your medicare hospitals and prescriptions
Without it, you would get zip as well
And this is a very small player whose success stories are ancient:
 csl, ear implant, fertility treatment
Any new comer based and staying here?



Knobby22 said:


> Still good at biotech.


----------



## SirRumpole (11 June 2019)

qldfrog said:


> Sirrumpole, all companies are not big corporates, most people are employed in sme and even  big companies start small
> At the moment, these companies are too small to do tax avoidance and still overtaxed ar 30pc or so, so no right minded entrepreneur will start or stay in oz, and if you start here, you will be crushed by os concurrents
> So sad




Froggie , small and medium sized businesses will have a tax cut to 26 % (20-21) and later 25% (21-22), bipartisanly supported.

https://www.ato.gov.au/business/small-business-entity-concessions/what-s-new-for-small-business/


----------



## Value Collector (11 June 2019)

SirRumpole said:


> Jobs are being created aren't they ?
> 
> That's what the government keeps telling us.




We can create more jobs at any time. Eg. Ban the use of bulldozers and force people to hire armies of workers with shovels and wheel barrows.

But, is maximum employment the target we should aim at?

I don’t think so, I won’t an economy that is producing an ever growing amount of goods and services, with a ever reducing Labourroduction ratio.

Off-course then there will be arguments about how this ever growing pile of goods and services is divided up, eg between those still working vs capital owners vs those on welfare etc etc.

But those sorts of family squabbles will work them selves out, as long as it’s still worth while for the remaining workers to work and the investors to invest, there will be plenty of excess goods and services to make their way to feed, house and clothe the unproductive class.


----------



## SirRumpole (11 June 2019)

Value Collector said:


> We can create more jobs at any time. Eg. Ban the use of bulldozers and force people to hire armies of workers with shovels and wheel barrows.
> 
> But, is maximum employment the target we should aim at?
> 
> ...




Funny how people are still deluded about infinite growth in a world of finite resources.


----------



## Value Collector (11 June 2019)

SirRumpole said:


> Funny how people are still deluded about infinite growth in a world of finite resources.




Resources are not as limited as people think, humans are pretty good at adapting and over coming, and tech is always improving the amount of resources that can be exploited and recycled.

The biggest limit to resources are economic, not physical.


----------



## qldfrog (11 June 2019)

So 25 pc tax is ok,all sorted?
, and we are all good and competitive with that,
 i really need to open a thread on various countries taxation as we australians have lived for far too long in our bubble of ignorance


----------



## SirRumpole (11 June 2019)

qldfrog said:


> So 25 pc tax is ok,all sorted?
> , and we are all good and competitive with that,
> i really need to open a thread on various countries taxation as we australians have lived for far too long in our bubble of ignorance




It's 25% in China, 25% in the US (including State taxes) . The UK has a sliding rate with 45% on profits above 150k pounds, which aint a lot of profit.


----------



## Value Collector (11 June 2019)

SirRumpole said:


> It's 25% in China, 25% in the US (including State taxes) . The UK has a sliding rate with 45% on profits above 150k pounds, which aint a lot of profit.




I am fairly happy with the Australian tax system, although the 45% threshold probably kicks in a bit to early.

The fact the we have franking credits and the capital gains tax discount makes the system pretty fair in my opinion.


----------



## qldfrog (11 June 2019)

"The *worldwide* average statutory *corporate* income *tax rate*, measured across 208 jurisdictions, is 23.03 percent. When weighted by GDP, the average statutory *rate* is 26.47 percent. The average top *corporate rate* among EU countries is 21.68 percent, 23.69 percent in OECD countries, and 27.63 percent in the G7.
"
so 25pc still bloody high
But thanks, hopefully will have time to open that thread, company personal taxes, and threshold for each.
For example personal tax rate is nearly similar in communist china to Australia, but believe me, you live in luxury there by the time you reach the 45pc threshold.or japan similar higher tax rate ..but at around 0.5mil a year vs 180k here etc

anyway, have been thinking about this thread  for a while, will do that in the coming month.
Personally I stopped fighting, no income ->no tax, everyone is happy and I am free looking for relocation.
Australia, great place for holidays but too expensive and far.For business..well..


----------



## qldfrog (11 June 2019)

company tax rate: last post on that subject:https://home.kpmg/xx/en/home/servic...x-rates-online/corporate-tax-rates-table.html
after a quick check, the only countries  higher than current Australian rate are banana republics and african countries, and France/Venezuela of course.
Interesting reading..Norway 22pc.....Finland 20pc


----------



## IFocus (11 June 2019)

Are there numbers for what companies actually pay?

Chevron pay SFA for the next 20 years etc!


----------



## Humid (11 June 2019)

qldfrog said:


> No, we can not because we have a minimal wage well above the rest of the world, no bank ready to loan you money,
> if any loan, rate one of the highest in the world. Still..
> No quick building, years of red green tape and aporoval circus
> Once built, H&S at every corner and unions circling for blood if big enough project
> ...




Yeah health and safety at every corner......good one mate
Try working in the industry


----------



## Humid (11 June 2019)

You should of put H&S before unions 
They go hand in hand 
But tell me how it works mate put your life on the line


----------



## Humid (11 June 2019)

Work site safety......hahaha nah mate we want franking credits


----------



## Humid (11 June 2019)

qldfrog said:


> company tax rate: last post on that subject:https://home.kpmg/xx/en/home/servic...x-rates-online/corporate-tax-rates-table.html
> after a quick check, the only countries  higher than current Australian rate are banana republics and african countries, and France/Venezuela of course.
> Interesting reading..Norway 22pc.....Finland 20pc




Yep that rate is from the government YOU returned


----------



## Humid (11 June 2019)

You all want to sit here and whinge about the current state of affairs and vote back in the  people who put you there
Wake up you nobs


----------



## SirRumpole (11 June 2019)

qldfrog said:


> company tax rate: last post on that subject:https://home.kpmg/xx/en/home/servic...x-rates-online/corporate-tax-rates-table.html
> after a quick check, the only countries  higher than current Australian rate are banana republics and african countries, and France/Venezuela of course.
> Interesting reading..Norway 22pc.....Finland 20pc




How many of those countries have dividend imputation ?

I'll give you a hint: NONE.

So when you start your thread, maybe you would like to adjust for that.


----------



## SirRumpole (11 June 2019)

Humid said:


> You all want to sit here and whinge about the current state of affairs and vote back in the  people who put you there
> Wake up you nobs




Don't blame me, I voted Labor.


----------



## Toyota Lexcen (11 June 2019)

Humid said:


> You should of put H&S before unions
> They go hand in hand
> But tell me how it works mate put your life on the line




of course they do, any 40hr weeks on union sites? safety out the window


----------



## Toyota Lexcen (11 June 2019)

the unions are obsolete in Australia now, very quiet during the election. memberships are in rapid decline

union doesn't give a stuff about safety, the shop steward just out for his/her job


----------



## qldfrog (11 June 2019)

SirRumpole said:


> How many of those countries have dividend imputation ?
> 
> I'll give you a hint: NONE.
> 
> So when you start your thread, maybe you would like to adjust for that.



We are talking about competitivity of Australia. 
A 20 person company does not give a  rat about dividend inputation but want to make profit to reinvest and grow.
We pay 30pc of profit to the taxman, competition a 3rd less, outcome easy to guess.
I am sure with labour, we will become an entrepreneur paradise
Anyway, in term of economy
https://www.news.com.au/finance/eco...n/news-story/9a11d5acd56d55e34029d20f782485be


----------



## Value Collector (11 June 2019)

Humid said:


> Work site safety......hahaha nah mate we want franking credits



Can’t we have both?


----------



## PZ99 (11 June 2019)

Toyota Lexcen said:


> the unions are obsolete in Australia now, very quiet during the election. memberships are in rapid decline



So why did Abbott spend all that taxpayer money on an anti union royal commission?
Unions aren't obsolete - they're over regulated by Govt to the point of ineffectiveness.

So not coincidentally we now have wage stagnation and rampant wage theft. 

No wonder this country's going nowhere.


----------



## satanoperca (11 June 2019)

Value Collector said:


> Can’t we have both?



We need one but not necessarily the other.


----------



## satanoperca (11 June 2019)

PZ99 said:


> So not coincidentally we now have wage stagnation and rampant wage theft.



Wage stagnation is more about automation & technology, globalisation of services which unions cannot control as they arn't local or physical (ie building site or factory premises).

As for rampant wage theft, we all contribute to that, it is human nature to look after their own purse and buy the cheapest regardless of the working conditions of the people who produce the product or service.

As far as I can see, nothing has changed, as everything has always been changing.


----------



## PZ99 (11 June 2019)

satanoperca said:


> Wage stagnation is more about automation & technology, globalisation of services which unions cannot control as they arn't local or physical (ie building site or factory premises).
> 
> As for rampant wage theft, we all contribute to that, it is human nature to look after their own purse and buy the cheapest regardless of the working conditions of the people who produce the product or service.
> 
> As far as I can see, nothing has changed, as everything has always been changing.



Technology, digitised transactions etc have more to do with job losses outright rather than wage rates.

Wage stagnation is a combined result of unions being over regulated by Govt and non membership. Union membership is low, so employees no longer have that strength of many at the negotiating table.

Wage theft is illegal so I don't think we all contribute to it. I don't.
Failure to pay tax is also illegal. Is that human nature too?

Something has definitely changed. Like interest rates  Our GDP growth is so low because employees either don't have the confidence, or the power, to spend their money.
Virtually all sides of politics agree on this - but it's up to the Govt to either fix it or cop a recession.


----------



## satanoperca (12 June 2019)

PZ99 said:


> Technology, digitised transactions etc have more to do with job losses outright rather than wage rates.



Interesting point, but tech results in change simply by it's nature, it disrupts.



PZ99 said:


> Wage stagnation is a combined result of unions being over regulated by Govt and non membership. Union membership is low, so employees no longer have that strength of many at the negotiating table.



The traditional base of unions has changed as we digitised more products and services. I don't know how govnuts which are always behind the eight ball can change this or are willing. Tech is changing the working environment at an accelerated rate and it is had for the general populace to keep up.



PZ99 said:


> Wage theft is illegal so I don't think we all contribute to it. I don't.
> Failure to pay tax is also illegal. Is that human nature too?



Agreed wage theft is illegal, but if the legal lines are not clear, there will always be someone willing to push the boundaries for the own purposes.
As for you don't contribute to it, I am 100% SURE if I did an audit of everypart of your life, you would be contributing to it, often without knowing, but so we all do.

Agreed about the tax, but it is human nature to reduce our tax for our own benefit. Unfortunately this has become part of our culture. 

Would you invest in a company that did not take every legal opportunity to increase their profits and thus you as an investor reap the rewards. This is a share forum after all.



PZ99 said:


> Something has definitely changed. Like interest rates  Our GDP growth is so low because employees either don't have the confidence, or the power, to spend their money.
> Virtually all sides of politics agree on this - but it's up to the Govt to either fix it or cop a recession.




Our GDP growth is low because we have taken on way way to much debt, which feeds into confidence and spending/stimulation of the economy based on the current economic models.
I could go on for paragraphs how low IR's have a negative effect on the economy but that is for another time.

As for politics, we fail to have leaders anymore, or better said we have short term leaders, who only look towards the next election as the electorate is not capable of seeing the future other than what benefits them now. A simple analogy much be a football coach who only looks towards winning todays game and not the series.

That being said, our politicians are only reflecting what society wants at the moment and not the future. Take for interest, NG - does it benefit long term society or short term gains, but to change the rules will piss of their friends.

Does all levels of govnuts want to keep property prices increasing for the own benefit? Yes, it provides them revenue through taxes, land tax and stamp duty - great revenue stream. But does have some of the highest property prices in the world benefit our communities? I think not, everyone needs shelter.

As with taxes, why do we tax labor so high but give tax breaks on asset appreciation (CG)?

Should not a worker who stays in a job for 10 years get a 50% rebate on tax, the same as an asset investor who holds the asset for more than a year?

I could go on, but little changes over time, however the pace of change is accelerating, making it difficult for us all to keep up.


----------



## Smurf1976 (12 June 2019)

PZ99 said:


> Something has definitely changed. Like interest rates  Our GDP growth is so low because employees either don't have the confidence, or the power, to spend their money.



One word - FEAR

When the future looks to be filled with more problems than opportunities it's a natural response to batten down the hatches.


----------



## qldfrog (12 June 2019)

I would also say it is a west fear of the future.
The west : us are loosing  our edge:
Our capital and goods come from Asia, our food from over the world.
Bipartisan support on ending trade barriers and bring in migration, but we refuse to fight economically on level ground
I am all for minimum wages high tax rates and nanny states as long as you do not ask me to be competitive against a Vietnamese or indian developer while paying my plumber 120aud an hour.
Either we adopt an Australia first Trump Style economy with barriers, union wages and less migrants or we are economically doomed ,Argentina way, until crisis forces us to maybe change and turn wild free market a la Russia
Not only Australia but most of the west, we are just more fragile than the other western economies..
and you can add all the extra issues 3rd world resources based,farming economy, RE obsession, absence of leadership,while still pretending playing with the big boys: ndis, 50bil submarines etc
Can not end well


----------



## Toyota Lexcen (12 June 2019)

The cfmeu could double it's membership easy by restricting overtime. 

You have crane crews doing  12hour days, tilers, plasterers etc.

But the workers are greedy like the developers. So there numbers dwindle as jobs finish.


----------



## SirRumpole (12 June 2019)

qldfrog said:


> We are talking about competitivity of Australia.
> A 20 person company does not give a  rat about dividend inputation but want to make profit to reinvest and grow.
> We pay 30pc of profit to the taxman, competition a 3rd less, outcome easy to guess.
> I am sure with labour, we will become an entrepreneur paradise
> ...




If the retail sector is struggling, it's not because of business taxation, but because consumers aren't spending.

They tend not to do that if they are afraid of losing their jobs or if their income is being eaten up by increasing costs like power, fuel, rent and insurance.


----------



## Lantern (12 June 2019)

Pity this wasn't released before the election.
https://www.news.com.au/finance/eco...n/news-story/9a11d5acd56d55e34029d20f782485be


----------



## moXJO (12 June 2019)

.


PZ99 said:


> Technology, digitised transactions etc have more to do with job losses outright rather than wage rates.
> 
> Wage stagnation is a combined result of unions being over regulated by Govt and non membership. Union membership is low, so employees no longer have that strength of many at the negotiating table.
> 
> ...




How high can wages keep going?
Things can't keep going up forever.


----------



## PZ99 (12 June 2019)

moXJO said:


> .
> 
> 
> How high can wages keep going?
> Things can't keep going up forever.



Then lower the cost of living.

How high can wages keep going? About as much as inflation for starters.

Nowhere near as high as profits keep going.


----------



## moXJO (12 June 2019)

Lantern said:


> Pity this wasn't released before the election.
> https://www.news.com.au/finance/eco...n/news-story/9a11d5acd56d55e34029d20f782485be



I think it was already known out there. Labor ran on a platform of more taxes,  it was politically blind too the obvious of what was going on out there.


----------



## SirRumpole (12 June 2019)

moXJO said:


> I think it was already known out there. Labor ran on a platform of more taxes,  it was politically blind too the obvious of what was going on out there.




Not really. They promised bigger income tax cuts for those earning under $38k, ie the people who spend virtually all of any increase they get.


----------



## moXJO (12 June 2019)

PZ99 said:


> Then lower the cost of living.
> 
> How high can wages keep going? About as much as inflation for starters.
> 
> Nowhere near as high as profits keep going.



Zimbabwe experience will all get us on $1000000000 a year 

I think we will definitely be deflating over the next few years. Unfortunately how do you afford employees if wages get too high. Unemployment will surely spike. 

High profits some years, heavy losses and bankruptcy in the down cycle.

We had a fairly good run but you kick the can only so far down the road.


----------



## sptrawler (12 June 2019)

moXJO said:


> I think it was already known out there. Labor ran on a platform of more taxes,  it was politically blind too the obvious of what was going on out there.



Labor lost, because all of their proposed changes hit the middle income person, much harder than the high income person. The sad part is Labor can't see it.


----------



## Value Collector (12 June 2019)

satanoperca said:


> We need one but not necessarily the other.



You are right, we need franking credits.

But on a serious note, they are not linked at all, getting one doesn’t mean you can’t have the other.


----------



## moXJO (12 June 2019)

SirRumpole said:


> Not really. They promised bigger income tax cuts for those earning under $38k, ie the people who spend virtually all of any increase they get.



They hit small business which was slready struggling. Accountant changes was a hit to small businesses. Taking away franking credits was always going to be viewed as negative even though only a small % use it. As was the negative gearing changes with houses. You scare the voters even if they don't use the schemes. 

Its the indirect impact on people already at wits end. Labor were stupid to run it. Especially with Shorten at the helm. If they ran the visionary Rudd platform they may have got people excited.


----------



## PZ99 (12 June 2019)

moXJO said:


> Zimbabwe experience will all get us on $1000000000 a year
> 
> I think we will definitely be deflating over the next few years. Unfortunately how do you afford employees if wages get too high. Unemployment will surely spike.
> 
> ...



What happens if the can goes the other way? 

Unemployment, heavy losses, bankruptcy will spike even faster.

Who is saying wages are too high ?  Not the Govt. Not the reserve bank.

Zimbabwe? Try Cambodia. That's where we're heading. Freeze wages and get there quicker


----------



## sptrawler (12 June 2019)

SirRumpole said:


> Not really. They promised bigger income tax cuts for those earning under $38k, ie the people who spend virtually all of any increase they get.



It is very hard to give tax cuts, to those who don't pay any effective tax, you can increase the assistance you give them.


----------



## SirRumpole (12 June 2019)

moXJO said:


> They hit small business which was slready struggling. Accountant changes was a hit to small businesses. Taking away franking credits was always going to be viewed as negative even though only a small % use it. As was the negative gearing changes with houses. You scare the voters even if they don't use the schemes.
> 
> Its the indirect impact on people already at wits end. Labor were stupid to run it. Especially with Shorten at the helm. If they ran the visionary Rudd platform they may have got people excited.




Yes, I agree with most of that. Any hint of higher taxes on some gets the flock scared shiteless. Shows how stupid people are really.

Maybe if Labor bring back their mining tax plans they may be more popular.


----------



## SirRumpole (12 June 2019)

sptrawler said:


> It is very hard to give tax cuts, to those who don't pay any effective tax, you can increase the assistance you give them.




True. About the only thing you can do is reduce the GST rate, but I doubt if anyone will do that.


----------



## sptrawler (12 June 2019)

SirRumpole said:


> True. About the only thing you can do is reduce the GST rate, but I doubt if anyone will do that.



I think they are on the right track, flatten tax rates to encourage endeavour and aspiration, also raise the tax free threshold and simplify welfare.
With simplifying welfare, that is probably what the living wage is about, having a complex welfare system just encourages rorting. 
Once you have a defined well thought out living wage, everything below that can be indexed in line with it, rather than having all the different names and rates which correlate to nothing, other than the squeaky wheel syndrome.


----------



## SirRumpole (12 June 2019)

sptrawler said:


> I think they are on the right track, flatten tax rates to encourage endeavour and aspiration, also raise the tax free threshold and simplify welfare.
> With simplifying welfare, that is probably what the living wage is about, having a complex welfare system just encourages rorting.
> Once you have a defined well thought out living wage, everything below that can be indexed in line with it, rather than having all the different names and rates which correlate to nothing, other than the squeaky wheel syndrome.




Flattening tax rates is fine, but the other side should be reduction of tax avoidance schemes like neg gearing and superannuation, otherwise the clever rich ones will be paying virtually zero tax.


----------



## sptrawler (12 June 2019)

SirRumpole said:


> Flattening tax rates is fine, but the other side should be reduction of tax avoidance schemes like neg gearing and superannuation, otherwise the clever rich ones will be paying virtually zero tax.



Very true, but it has to be done in a way, that still gives a positive outcome.
You still want working people, to endeavour to improve their financial position, throughout their working lives.
You also want the poor to have affordable rental properties, which in reality isn't going to be new build houses.
The clever rich ones, will always pay low tax, they have the money to structure their affairs to take advantage of which ever system works best.
Restricting negative gearing to new builds, wasn't going affect the rich, but it would have locked out the middle to low income earners.

Superannuation has to a large degree been "fixed", by putting the $1.6m cap on tax free pensions, so in reality the franking that can be earned on that amount isn't huge. As I showed earlier, a pension couple would quite easily earn more, than a self funded couple.
If they want to reduce, how much franking credit excessive super balances earn in accumulation, just put a progressive tax rate on accumulation balances and reduce the "cap" further.
This would then stop people putting excessive amounts into super, but IMO that wasn't the main function of Labor's proposal.


----------



## moXJO (12 June 2019)

PZ99 said:


> What happens if the can goes the other way?
> 
> Unemployment, heavy losses, bankruptcy will spike even faster.
> 
> ...



No I agree we can't freeze wages either. But we need to be realistic about where we are economically as a country before wages get a boost. But saying that its a very fine line walking act. You don't want people to stop spending. That usually means tax revenue takes a hit. But it will take a hit either way so its better to stimulate activity.

We either (further) develop industry the world needs, or its going to get tough. This liberal govt has really  dropped the ball in that regard.

I think we hit a peak on prices, profits, housing, wages and even consuming goods. The drought is doing us no favors on food produce into asia. Neither are the tariff wars.  Tax revenue will be taking a hit from most sectors.

Will the Indian middle-class save us?
We should be targeting those growing middle-class asian countries and exporting our smashed avo lifestyle.


----------



## Smurf1976 (12 June 2019)

The problem we've got is the gap between two conflicting ideologies.

High costs and free trade.

Which one do we want? Trying both is a sure fire way to ruin.

Suffice to say that I've never met a blue collar or general administrative type office worker who can't see that but I'm yet to hear even one academic who seems to grasp it. Hence the increasingly apparent political divide between the "inner city elites" and the rest.

I'll give one example but it's just an example because the same thing applies to pretty much every factory and other big industrial thing which has closed with production offshored.

Example - the former Hazelwood power station in Victoria which closed two years ago.

Now putting aside that we've since had wholesale electricity prices more than double and there have indeed been blackouts directly resulting from that closure as promised, my point is about the workers.

Many retired earlier than they otherwise would have and are retired as such. Their former jobs are simply gone and replaced with nothing at all.

The odd random one ended up working in renewable energy or some other well paying field. They're very much in the minority however.

The rest? Well they're either working in low wage jobs mostly in service industries or they're unemployed. At least that's what I've been assured by those who know.

There's the great problem. Manufacturing and investing puts people firmly in the middle class whilst service industries and welfare puts them in the lower class.

As others have suggested, I do think a Trump-like character will emerge for the simple reason that very obviously no current political party is going to address the problem. They'll all push us in the direction of more cafes and tourists and fewer stamping lines and casting plants. Push us in the direction of things which cannot and will not pay high wages and there's the problem.

Either we need a much lower cost base so as to be able to compete or tariffs are the only real alternative. Not blanket tariffs on everything, just on any country with wages or environmental standards that wouldn't be legal in Australia will do. It's not rocket science to see that's the reality and as the middle class are squeezed between rising costs and faltering wages of course they'll stop spending.

I'm not advocating that we prop up failing industries making products that nobody wants but it's a tragedy that our electronics industry didn't make the leap from TV's to smartphones, that our car industry didn't make the transition to products that consumers wanted and that increasingly we're struggling to even do things like smelting copper or aluminium. All that stuff pays decent wages whereas you won't get that with any number of cafes, mobile dog washes and so on.


----------



## basilio (19 June 2019)

How strong is our retail sector ? Concerning story on ABC news. I also look around and talk to shop owners and frankly I don't think many are winning.  The internet, squeezed wages, high rents lack of spending seems to be  scary.

Thoughts ?


*Growing number of Australian small businesses struggling amid economic downturn*
By business reporter David Taylor
Posted about 8 hours ago


* Photo:* NAB's analysis of electronic payments points to further retail weakness ahead. (AAP/Supplied) 
*Related Story:* Business conditions at their worst level since 2013, with retail 'clearly in recession'
*Related Story:* Retail sales far worse than expected as households continue to feel the pinch
*Related Story:* We're hocked to the eyeballs in debt with no obvious way out
Evidence is emerging that a growing wave of businesses are going to the wall as the end of the financial year approaches.

*Key points:*

ASIC figures showing the number of companies entering administration rose 11.2pc last year
NAB's cashless sales index is pointing to continued weak retail sales growth
Business groups warn weak trading conditions will lead to job losses in the retail sector


Private debt collectors dealing directly with businesses struggling to pay their suppliers have told the ABC's PM program their work load has "spiked" in recent weeks.

In New South Wales alone, the ABC understands the numbers of business getting a knock on the door from debt collectors is in the thousands.

Nationwide, according to Australian Securities and Investments Commission, the number of companies entering external administration increased by a staggering 11.2 per cent last year.

Economists agree that businesses in the retail sector are reeling.
https://www.abc.net.au/news/2019-06...es-struggling-amid-economic-downturn/11224246


----------



## Smurf1976 (19 June 2019)

Stagnant wages are one thing.

Broad concern about the future is another with everything from jobs to climate.

Falling interest rates benefit some but harm others so it's a double edge sword.

There's pretty much no product or service which isn't readily available and thus no real pricing power. Very few things which can be bought are actually scarce at the moment whereas in the past that wasn't always the case, there was usually at least something which was scarce.

A substantial portion of the population has significant debt which is an obvious sink for any additional income without spending on anything.

About the only thing which rather a lot of people seem to want but don't have is more holidays, particularly to anywhere overseas especially Europe. Hand someone some more money and for a decent % of the population it's either going to repay debt or it's going to fund an overseas trip.


----------



## sptrawler (20 June 2019)

Smurf1976 said:


> Stagnant wages are one thing.
> 
> Broad concern about the future is another with everything from jobs to climate.
> 
> ...



There really isn't much, that most people don't have, consumables have become cheap in real terms.
So what do people buy, when they have everything, as you say holidays and add to that eating.
With all the fanfare, of the impending mass introduction of electric cars, everyone is hanging on to their existing car.
No one is jumping into property, so as you say with the extra money, they either pay off debt or take a holiday.
I would hate to be in retail, unless it was food, coffee or booze.


----------



## PZ99 (20 June 2019)

Retail is a glutton for punishment even at the best of times. 

It's good for kids getting their CV started but it's really only a hobby these days.


----------



## wayneL (20 June 2019)

One of my clients I just discovered is an economics PhD who lectures at UQ. 

He thinks the can kicking is close to being over. He thinks a recession is likely soon.  Doesn't think this will be the big one,  maybe the next one,  when it comes. FWIW


----------



## Dark Knight 2.0 (20 June 2019)

wayneL said:


> One of my clients I just discovered is an economics PhD who lectures at UQ.
> 
> He thinks the can kicking is close to being over. He thinks a recession is likely soon.  Doesn't think this will be the big one,  maybe the next one,  when it comes. FWIW




UQ's Economics School used to be World renowned for producing some brilliant minds. Not sure if it still is now.

Just thought I'd throw that in, as appreciation for your comedy elsewhere.


----------



## PZ99 (20 June 2019)

wayneL said:


> One of my clients I just discovered is an economics PhD who lectures at UQ.
> 
> He thinks the can kicking is close to being over. He thinks a recession is likely soon.  Doesn't think this will be the big one,  maybe the next one,  when it comes. FWIW



I would agree with that although I think the next recession here would drag out for a very long time and maybe even culminate to a double dipper because with low interest rates, low dollar and high debt, we don't really have anything to stabilise the economy as in the past.

I think millennials are in for a rude shock when it happens.


----------



## Smurf1976 (20 June 2019)

PZ99 said:


> we don't really have anything to stabilise the economy as in the past.
> 
> I think millennials are in for a rude shock when it happens.



Things like manufacturing can't really benefit from a lower Dollar when local production of entire categories of goods has been completely wiped out. Even 100% growth from a base of zero is still zero.

Another issue is that I strongly suspect that certain industries which have become economically significant are so only because of the strength of the Australian economy compared to elsewhere. I'm referring there to the fact that immigration has become an industry in itself and a pretty substantial one at that whereas in the past it was nowhere near as significant. I have doubts about that continuing to be so if the economy goes into recession.

On the other hand, if the AUD drops enough then tourism should pick up with more international visitors.


----------



## Smurf1976 (20 June 2019)

One thing I've noticed as an economic indicator is to look at the news. 

By that I don't mean the detail but what sort of things are commonly in the news and keep coming up over and over?

Split them into two groups - one for anything of a "social" or politically "Left" nature and the other for things of an economic or politically "Right" nature.

What I've noticed is that the "social" or "Left" stuff becomes far more prominent toward the end of the economic cycle but disappears from the news almost entirely after a slump. 

My point there is about using politics and the news as an economic indicator not about who to vote for etc. Association is not causation!

Being very generic I see a lot of news about "environment" and also quite a bit about "gender", "health" and "education" but there doesn't seem to be any real discussion about "economic reform" or "international competitiveness" and taken together that tells me we're toward the end of the cycle.

Also be on the lookout for politicians raising issues which dominate debate but which are of a non-economic nature. Things like, for example, any mention of becoming a republic, changing the flag or the national anthem, matters affecting Aboriginals, "ambitious" things like elaborate transport or water projects. Stuff like that, if being brought up by the government, tends to be a diversion of attention away from the economy and a sure sign it's going to crap. That's not to say none of that's important or worth discussing but it tends to come up when the economy's bad and government wants to divert attention.


----------



## sptrawler (20 June 2019)

I think all the noise coming out of the Reserve Bank, indicates that small business is going to fold, unless they get some spending money into the economy. 
That to me, would indicate the tax cuts need to be rolled out ASAP, because small industry can't afford another wage rise after the lift in the basic wage.
It all seems to be a bit precarious ATM, once the small shops start folding en masse, it will go like a house of cards. IMO


----------



## wayneL (20 June 2019)

Smurf1976 said:


> One thing I've noticed as an economic indicator is to look at the news.
> 
> By that I don't mean the detail but what sort of things are commonly in the news and keep coming up over and over?
> 
> ...



Awesome observation. 

Socionomics..... as much as Prechter gets things wrong,  I think its a useful study. Paying more attention to this now.


----------



## SirRumpole (20 June 2019)

Smurf1976 said:


> Also be on the lookout for politicians raising issues which dominate debate but which are of a non-economic nature. Things like, for example, any mention of becoming a republic, changing the flag or the national anthem, matters affecting Aboriginals, "ambitious" things like elaborate transport or water projects. Stuff like that, if being brought up by the government, tends to be a diversion of attention away from the economy and a sure sign it's going to crap. That's not to say none of that's important or worth discussing but it tends to come up when the economy's bad and government wants to divert attention.




Flag waving exercises about refugees, terrorism, immigration  or citizenship (African gangs, deporting criminals etc) are another sign especially if they can be used against the Opposition.


----------



## qldfrog (20 June 2019)

Smurf1976 said:


> Things like manufacturing can't really benefit from a lower Dollar when local production of entire categories of goods has been completely wiped out. Even 100% growth from a base of zero is still zero.
> 
> Another issue is that I strongly suspect that certain industries which have become economically significant are so only because of the strength of the Australian economy compared to elsewhere. I'm referring there to the fact that immigration has become an industry in itself and a pretty substantial one at that whereas in the past it was nowhere near as significant. I have doubts about that continuing to be so if the economy goes into recession.
> 
> On the other hand, if the AUD drops enough then tourism should pick up with more international visitors.



I think Australia is a bit disillusioned about tourism here, true we only need a small portion of China to visit to fill our hotel but we are so expensive that even a AUD at 20c USD would still be more than what a Cambodia or Thailand  resort will ever cost, then while i love Australia, and German tourists usually can to, Chinese can not find here what they look for: high end shopping, food and gambling, with freedom to smoke around, be loud and take selfies
They do not care that much about beaches..can not swim, or desert treks full of flies and animals
As for tourism from elsewhere, we are far too far and with the GW brigade taking over, forget about your cheap 20h flights
As Smurf mentioned above, immigration is an industry: so called education and new buildings are living out of immigration, but so do tourism figures as a lot of tourist visitors are just visiting families
As you can see when disembarking from an intl flight back in Australia
A recession and this would collapse drastically


----------



## PZ99 (21 June 2019)

Let's export some rare earths 

https://www.aussiestockforums.com/posts/1031367/


----------



## qldfrog (21 June 2019)

Did not take long
https://au.finance.yahoo.com/news/eu-nations-aim-high-plan-124313618.html
Bye bye European tourists...
But it's ok, we will save the planet that way ROL


----------



## Junior (21 June 2019)

PZ99 said:


> Let's export some rare earths
> 
> https://www.aussiestockforums.com/posts/1031367/




Like it or not, natural resources are still our game.  As a country we should hone in on resources required for new technology and renewables.  Slow down on coal and gas.


----------



## SirRumpole (21 June 2019)

Dob in a tax dodger phone lines run hot.

https://www.abc.net.au/news/2019-06...-surge-in-bid-to-crack-black-economy/11234126


----------



## Value Collector (21 June 2019)

qldfrog said:


> I think Australia is a bit disillusioned about tourism here, true we only need a small portion of China to visit to fill our hotel but we are so expensive that even a AUD at 20c USD would still be more than what a Cambodia or Thailand  resort will ever cost, then while i love Australia, and German tourists usually can to, Chinese can not find here what they look for: high end shopping, food and gambling, with freedom to smoke around, be loud and take selfies
> They do not care that much about beaches..can not swim, or desert treks full of flies and animals
> As for tourism from elsewhere, we are far too far and with the GW brigade taking over, forget about your cheap 20h flights
> As Smurf mentioned above, immigration is an industry: so called education and new buildings are living out of immigration, but so do tourism figures as a lot of tourist visitors are just visiting families
> ...




I do t know, try to get parking anywhere near the three sisters and you will see it’s clogged up with tour groups of Chinese tourists.

Take a look at Sydney airport passenger numbers, it gives some pretty interesting insights into passenger movements.


----------



## qldfrog (21 June 2019)

Always wonder who dod who
During German occupation in wwii, was mostly caused by envy, family disputes or neighbour quarrels
Rarely done for the better of the country, and not a good sign for the country in my opinion.probably a reflection of the new tribalism..us and them


----------



## moXJO (23 June 2019)

I've recently seen shopping centers packed out round my way. Restaurants and cafes not so much (or at all) in or around the centers. In fact a few eateries have shut up shop. 
Kmart looked packed. High end stores looked barren.

Bunnings seems quiet -to a steady drip of customers.

Car yards are vacant.

I've heard some building trades are getting  jobs. 

Mixed results


----------



## Smurf1976 (23 June 2019)

moXJO said:


> Mixed results



Looking at your comments in detail it would seem that consumers are buying cheap essentials (Kmart) but are shunning more expensive options (high end stores) and avoiding altogether the purchase of non-essentials (car yards, restaurants).

That looks to me like consumers being cautious but not actually in trouble yet.


----------



## moXJO (23 June 2019)

Smurf1976 said:


> Looking at your comments in detail it would seem that consumers are buying cheap essentials (Kmart) but are shunning more expensive options (high end stores) and avoiding altogether the purchase of non-essentials (car yards, restaurants).
> 
> That looks to me like consumers being cautious but not actually in trouble yet.



Thats my thinking. 

People are buying the basic necessities in the local area. But seem to be doing it in larger numbers then what I noticed before. Perhaps a small bump in next months figures. And perhaps a result of the rate cut filtering through to the real world.


----------



## jbocker (23 June 2019)

Walking through the Piccadilly arcade in Perth, a popular link between Perths two main malls, you get a feeling that the retail sector has died. As it looks like 70% of the shops have closed. Only a few have change of location notices poorly displayed. These shops have been gradually closing over a year or two it seems.
It looks horrible and depressing and you are left with the message that retail is in dire shape and shops are doomed. But in reality the Arcade is in renovation and a promise of rejuvenation.

So I ask WHY don't those promoting the development and the retail association display the bright future of the arcade on the empty shop fronts rather than leave passers by and former customers with the gloom of vacancy. That façade and theatre area under renovation is currently boarded no visibility to the public.
It seems maybe they want you to go to the computer to find out what is going on with the development. Maybe while I am there I will shop online too.

I will send a note to the retail association.


----------



## moXJO (23 June 2019)

jbocker said:


> Walking through the Piccadilly arcade in Perth, a popular link between Perths two main malls, you get a feeling that the retail sector has died. As it looks like 70% of the shops have closed. Only a few have change of location notices poorly displayed. These shops have been gradually closing over a year or two it seems.
> It looks horrible and depressing and you are left with the message that retail is in dire shape and shops are doomed. But in reality the Arcade is in renovation and a promise of rejuvenation.
> 
> So I ask WHY don't those promoting the development and the retail association display the bright future of the arcade on the empty shop fronts rather than leave passers by and former customers with the gloom of vacancy. That façade and theatre area under renovation is currently boarded no visibility to the public.
> ...



Thats actually a really good idea. 
I just need a giant sticker printer and some dodged up pie charts showing customers positive reactions.

I'll let you be chief of staff  (you get to press the print button).


----------



## qldfrog (23 June 2019)

In brisbane north, when shops close in shopping centres, the center will the vacant shop with a kind of kids play area a few fake plants, seats made of palettes with plenty of pillows.cool
But not after crossing 3 of these in your shopping trip


----------



## sptrawler (23 June 2019)

jbocker said:


> Walking through the Piccadilly arcade in Perth, a popular link between Perths two main malls, you get a feeling that the retail sector has died. As it looks like 70% of the shops have closed. Only a few have change of location notices poorly displayed. These shops have been gradually closing over a year or two it seems.
> It looks horrible and depressing and you are left with the message that retail is in dire shape and shops are doomed. But in reality the Arcade is in renovation and a promise of rejuvenation.
> 
> So I ask WHY don't those promoting the development and the retail association display the bright future of the arcade on the empty shop fronts rather than leave passers by and former customers with the gloom of vacancy. That façade and theatre area under renovation is currently boarded no visibility to the public.
> ...



The problem with the shops in the centre of Perth is, they are the same shops as are out in the suburban shopping centres, so no one can be bothered with the hassle of going into the City.
When I have been to Melbourne and Sydney, the shops in the City appear niche and a bit different to those in the shopping malls.
Fremantle and Perth CBD's have both died, by the same sword, they used to have family businesses and boutique shops. Now they have nothing no heart, no soul and heaps of homeless.


----------



## SirRumpole (24 June 2019)

Stock market vs real economy.

https://www.abc.net.au/news/2019-06...ful-economy-great-news-for-investors/11239398


----------



## Humid (24 June 2019)

Smurf1976 said:


> Looking at your comments in detail it would seem that consumers are buying cheap essentials (Kmart) but are shunning more expensive options (high end stores) and avoiding altogether the purchase of non-essentials (car yards, restaurants).
> 
> That looks to me like consumers being cautious but not actually in trouble yet.




https://www.smh.com.au/business/com...stralia-s-retail-malaise-20190613-p51xav.html

Looks can be deceiving


----------



## satanoperca (24 June 2019)

Wouldn't have anything to do with that Australia's Private Debt to GDP is now at 205% and
1. No wage growth for at least 5 years
2. Increase in the cost of living (current CPI figures do not reflect reality for the majority of Aussies)
3. Lowest IR's in history, great for debt holders, shi---t for everyone else
4. Globalisation and the rise of internet shopping
5. Automation
6. Ridiculously high shelter prices

Don't need to be a genius to work out that we are heading towards a cliff, just depends on how steep and high the cliff is and how many ledges it has on the way down until we reach the bottom.

Oh, forgot, we don't have leaders in govnut anymore, no long term direction driven by an electorate that only is concerned with themselves.

All in all, nothing has really changed in 100's of years.


----------



## Smurf1976 (24 June 2019)

satanoperca said:


> Wouldn't have anything to do with that Australia's Private Debt to GDP is now at 205% and
> 
> 2. Increase in the cost of living (current CPI figures do not reflect reality for the majority of Aussies)
> 3. Lowest IR's in history, great for debt holders, shi---t for everyone else
> ...




2 - A few weeks from now it's a given that there'll be complaining as Winter gas and electricity bills start turning up. Whilst Summer attracts most attention among those commenting on the industry due to demand spikes creating supply difficulties, total consumption and thus expenditure for most consumers is substantially higher in Winter. Obvious exception of trpoical regions etc.

Another one that's come to my attention is the cost of cigarettes. I'm not a smoker and agree there are good reasons to discourage it but fact is that the price today is an order of magnitude greater than it was not so long ago. OK, sure, that'll discourage people from smoking which isn't bad in itself but it's not as though the price of fruit and vegetables, gym memberships, health insurance or any other consumable has come down to offset that rise indeed private health insurance has itself seen huge price increases. So from an economic perspective it's just another product that has gone up massively in price.

3 - Yep, there's plenty of people who have at least some cash on deposit who are losing not gaining from the interest rate cuts.

6 - The situation with housing and that money has been borrowed means that in the absence of future strong wages growth, it's effectively a life long problem for an entire generation. That's going to have implications for sure.


----------



## sptrawler (24 June 2019)

satanoperca said:


> 6. Ridiculously high shelter prices
> .



Only in Sydney and Melbourne, and only if they aren't an apartment.
I'm sure country towns are a lot cheaper, also if you really want cheap shelter, come to Perth.
Funny how everything is Sydney centric, if you can't afford to buy in Syndey, you have to climb under a rock and die, the World will end.


----------



## Gringotts Bank (24 June 2019)

Crash or severe downturn in the next 6 months, according to my hairdresser.  Sounds like a joke doesn't it?  He is one of those low intellect guys who is very sensitive and intuitive.  Combined with a stable emotional makeup, this makes him brilliant at picking long term turning points in property and financial markets.  I've known him for a long time and he has become very wealthy.


----------



## Smurf1976 (24 June 2019)

Gringotts Bank said:


> Crash or severe downturn in the next 6 months, according to my hairdresser.  Sounds like a joke doesn't it?  He is one of those low intellect guys who is very sensitive and intuitive.



His intellect may be far higher than you're assuming?

Plus it's the sort of job that involves meeting a lot of people, some of whom know plenty and have likely made relevant comments he's picked up on?

Just a thought.


----------



## StockyGuy (25 June 2019)

Gringotts Bank said:


> Crash or severe downturn in the next 6 months, according to my hairdresser.  Sounds like a joke doesn't it?  He is one of those low intellect guys who is very sensitive and intuitive.  Combined with a stable emotional makeup, this makes him brilliant at picking long term turning points in property and financial markets.  I've known him for a long time and he has become very wealthy.




Not a joke, but has that sort of ring of something that almost can't be fully wrong.  If he just said "crash", then that's a proper prediction.  A severe downturn isn't very meaningful term (given a little bit of hyperbole seems to be built into convos with cabbies, barmen and barbers) - unless he's going to state where All Ords will be, it sounds bit unfalsifiable.  I mean various areas of the economy, notably real estate, are already in downturn.

That might be too sceptical, but I'm genuinely interested in how the good predictor's manage it.  Maybe try to pump him for more specific info


----------



## qldfrog (25 June 2019)

@Gringotts Bank is going to turn bald in a relentless effort to share his hairdresser advice with us with daily visit
Joke aside, a barber is a great indicator.Maybe sexist in the #metoo period but men talk work and economy with the barber, who has a great access to the pulse of the local area
And we all know that the mood of the population can make or break the economy
Only need to be cautious about the local bias
Should start the barber economic mood indicator spread across the nation.would beat the abs one that is for sure


----------



## qldfrog (25 June 2019)

https://www.abc.net.au/news/2019-06-25/car-sales-slump-as-economy-hits-speed-bump/11240180
And the abc managed to blame it on Trump 

No sure i share the article view about car sharing: in numbers right now, this is not significant and can not explain the slump in sales imho


----------



## basilio (25 June 2019)

The collapse in OZ and US bond prices  is the most telling signal of economic expectations. We are in dangerous territory. This is a very good analysis of where we have been and where we are heading.

* Bond yields are useful for telling us about the future. And it's not looking good *
Greg Jericho
For the past six months we’ve started to see a negative yield curve – an indicator of a recession
https://www.theguardian.com/comment...-us-about-the-future-and-its-not-looking-good


----------



## basilio (25 June 2019)

There is another analysis on the state of the economy on the ABC. It "expalins" why the stock market jumps when interest rats falls  - but also points out that when the merde hits the fan gravity does suck..
*The economy is awful and that's great news for investors*
By business editor Ian Verrender
Updated yesterday at 8:36am


* Photo:* The lower interest rates go, the better the stock market performs. (AAP) 
*Related Story:* The Reserve Bank will cut rates again and again — and it's our fault
*Related Story:* We're hocked to the eyeballs in debt with no obvious way out
*Related Story:* Economic slowdown heading to GFC levels
Bad news suddenly has become good again. No matter where you look, there are signs of a global slowdown while wars are brewing at a trade, currency and even military level.

Here at home, the economy is sputtering. Growth is slowing, inflation is on the mat, unemployment is ticking higher.

The situation has deteriorated to such an extent that it's even jolted the Reserve Bank into action after three years of nothing. 
https://www.abc.net.au/news/2019-06...ful-economy-great-news-for-investors/11239398


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## SirRumpole (25 June 2019)

Car sales down. A sure sign that the economy is tanking.

https://www.abc.net.au/news/2019-06-25/car-sales-slump-as-economy-hits-speed-bump/11240180


----------



## Smurf1976 (25 June 2019)

qldfrog said:


> Joke aside, a barber is a great indicator.Maybe sexist in the #metoo period but men talk work and economy with the barber, who has a great access to the pulse of the local area




Barbers are one certainly but I'd expect there's also quite a few others who'd have some information that could be a useful indicator.

One possible example would be the average transaction size at service stations for fuel purchases. If there was a trend toward people buying $20 worth of petrol rather than filling the tank, well that wouldn't be a good sign economically. Whether there is any such trend I've no idea but if there was, well it would suggest that consumers don't have any money. 

Taxi / Uber drivers another obvious one especially those based in the CBD.

I wouldn't be surprised if the amount of rubbish and recycling collected has some correlation to the economy especially cardboard. Every new appliance and a lot of furniture will come in either a big cardboard box or wrapped in plastic. The total volume collected thus might be relevant.

In the long term the economy is becoming more energy efficient but any sudden change in consumption across electricity, gas and liquid fuels is a sure indication that something's up economically, that's very clear from past recessions. Slow change due to better buildings and cars etc sure but be on the lookout for anything sudden. For example the reported huge % drops in diesel consumption in China can't plausibly be explained by more efficient engines etc when we're talking 14% in a month and stuff like that.


----------



## Smurf1976 (25 June 2019)

SirRumpole said:


> Car sales down. A sure sign that the economy is tanking.



Agreed - when it's 14 consecutive months it's pretty clear that there's something going on there.

Whilst there's probably a few people waiting for electric cars or whatever, I very much doubt that's on a sufficient scale to explain the extent of the drop in new car sales seen thus far. Economic reasons seem far more likely to me.


----------



## Gringotts Bank (25 June 2019)

StockyGuy said:


> That might be too sceptical, but I'm genuinely interested in how the good predictor's manage it.  Maybe try to pump him for more specific info




Well that's sort of a problem, because when he talks it's evident he cannot translate his insights into words.  Or he'll say something like "12 months ago, you could have bought a house for ....".  Yawn.  However I definately pay attention to the *gist *because he has never been wrong.  He has also said plenty of other things which indicate he has a very good feel for markets and trends.  That's why I go there - I'm always on trend with my manscaping.


----------



## sptrawler (25 June 2019)

Smurf1976 said:


> I wouldn't be surprised if the amount of rubbish and recycling collected has some correlation to the economy especially cardboard. Every new appliance and a lot of furniture will come in either a big cardboard box or wrapped in plastic. The total volume collected thus might be relevant.
> .




You are spot on there smurf, my mate the garbo, reckons it breaks his heart to pick up lawn mowers, fridges, vacuums, furniture etc, all with signs written on them "In Working Order".
He picks them up in the jaws of the little loader and puts them into the truck crusher, you can't give stuff away today.
It wasn't many years ago garage sales were all the go, i don't see many around these days.
Times, they are changing.
Maybe the reality is, there are too many shops, to cater for a changing demographic.
Only old people wash their cars, mow their lawns etc, the new generation get the lawn mowed, that is if they have a lawn.  Run their car through the car wash, or don't bother at all.
People aren't spending, retail is in the doldrums, but how much is the reality of our changing World and the way we spend money and how much is due to no one having money?


----------



## SirRumpole (25 June 2019)

sptrawler said:


> People aren't spending, retail is in the doldrums, but how much is the reality of our changing World and the way we spend money and how much is due to no one having money?




Discretionary spending is being eaten away by increases in prices for essentials, power, gas, water, council rates, rents, health insurance, medicines, state government charges and the like. 

So on a non increasing income once you pay that stuff off, there is very little else to spend on what companies produce.

On Q&A last night the only person who made any sense was the Centre Alliance Senator Rex Patrick, saying basically gas prices are killing the economy. Dead right and the government has to do something about it.


----------



## sptrawler (25 June 2019)

SirRumpole said:


> Discretionary spending is being eaten away by increases in prices for essentials, power, gas, water, council rates, rents, health insurance, medicines, state government charges and the like.
> 
> So on a non increasing income once you pay that stuff off, there is very little else to spend on what companies produce.
> 
> On Q&A last night the only person who made any sense was the Centre Alliance Senator Rex Patrick, saying basically gas prices are killing the economy. Dead right and the government has to do something about it.



That is a very good point Rumpy, statutory costs have gone up regardless and are by far one of the biggest outgoings from wages.
Funny how putting taxes down is so scorned upon and putting taxes up was cheered along.


----------



## qldfrog (25 June 2019)

SirRumpole said:


> Car sales down. A sure sign that the economy is tanking.
> 
> https://www.abc.net.au/news/2019-06-25/car-sales-slump-as-economy-hits-speed-bump/11240180



A sure sign I am on the ignore list of SirRumpole ROL


----------



## SirRumpole (25 June 2019)

qldfrog said:


> A sure sign I am on the ignore list of SirRumpole ROL




Sorry froggy, must have missed that one.

They were different articles though.


----------



## qldfrog (25 June 2019)

SirRumpole said:


> Sorry froggy, must have missed that one.
> 
> They were different articles though.



Same link, probably updated between 5am and 12, but no worries, while we have some fundamentally different views politically, overall I have the upmost respect for your positions and level headed attitude.
Kudos
I end the bromance there


----------



## satanoperca (25 June 2019)

sptrawler said:


> Only in Sydney and Melbourne, and only if they aren't an apartment.
> I'm sure country towns are a lot cheaper, also if you really want cheap shelter, come to Perth.
> Funny how everything is Sydney centric, if you can't afford to buy in Syndey, you have to climb under a rock and die, the World will end.



Everything is relevant to the inputs that determine value.

So is Perth fair value at the moment?

So country towns are a lot cheaper you say? By what metric. Because a house in Sydney is $1M and a house in the country, say 200km away from the the CBD is only $0.5M, it is cheaper? Well yes on figures alone, but markets take into consideration much more than price

I personally think even country properties are overvalued, but I might be wrong, but then again there is some reason why everything is slowing down and a recession (a good thing for the long term longevity of this country) is on the horizon and just as the sun rises and sets, so do recessions.


----------



## sptrawler (25 June 2019)

satanoperca said:


> Everything is relevant to the inputs that determine value.
> 
> So is Perth fair value at the moment?
> 
> ...



Perth prices are back to what  they were nearly 20 years ago, wages in the last 20 years have gone up a lot, but it still depends on what you call fair value.
I sold a house for a lot of money 12 years ago, looking on Domain.com, it is still the same price.
As for country property prices, here in W.A they are really low, but people still aren't buying.
I just think a lot of people have re prioritised, what they spend their money on.


----------



## Smurf1976 (25 June 2019)

SirRumpole said:


> On Q&A last night the only person who made any sense was the Centre Alliance Senator Rex Patrick, saying basically gas prices are killing the economy. Dead right and the government has to do something about it.



There's basically no form of economic activity that uses literally zero energy and for a lot of things its a significant input.

High cost energy is thus a drag on pretty much the entire economy.


----------



## satanoperca (25 June 2019)

sptrawler said:


> Perth prices are back to what  they were nearly 20 years ago, wages in the last 20 years have gone up a lot, but it still depends on what you call fair value.
> I sold a house for a lot of money 12 years ago, looking on Domain.com, it is still the same price.
> As for country property prices, here in W.A they are really low, but people still aren't buying.
> I just think a lot of people have re prioritised, what they spend their money on.




Everyone still wants a place to call home.

Maybe Perth prices are fair value, maybe they are cheap, maybe they are still over priced. 

Regardless, markets always have a way to sort themselves out, the only variable that few can calculate with accuracy is time.


----------



## sptrawler (25 June 2019)

satanoperca said:


> Everyone still wants a place to call home.
> 
> Maybe Perth prices are fair value, maybe they are cheap, maybe they are still over priced.
> 
> Regardless, markets always have a way to sort themselves out, the only variable that few can calculate with accuracy is time.



You are right, but when it is a hot property market, everyone thinks property, how to save for it, where to buy it, keep an eye on prices, put things off.
When the herd turns, it is all bad news, property prices crashing, apartments with problems etc.
Then the people on the side lines say, we will save a little longer, we will take that holiday we put off.
It takes a lot to stop the slide, people have to believe it has bottomed, I don't think they do.
The Sydney, Melbourne market was awash with, buyers, easy money and foreign investors.
All of the above has dried up.


----------



## moXJO (25 June 2019)

satanoperca said:


> I personally think even country properties are overvalued, but I might be wrong, but then again there is some reason why everything is slowing down and a recession (a good thing for the long term longevity of this country) is on the horizon and just as the sun rises and sets, so do recessions.



I agree with this as well. I feel country property is way overvalued.


----------



## moXJO (25 June 2019)

My favourite ice-cream store shut down the other day. Terrible moment...

There are a lot of 'for lease' signs on shop fronts as well. 

Bunnings was completely dead when I parked at the trade section today. I normally have to wait for a park. It was literally me and three other people in the whole store. Apparently they had ok trade on the weekend. People seem to be more selectively spending.

I am noticing the for lease signs though. But in my mind there are a lot of businesses that were just never going to make a tough cycle.


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## qldfrog (26 June 2019)

My 9nly worries is that price might go down, hourly rate, lease etc but insurances, water and council rates,etc will not
I own a warehouse and can not see how Business can pay my lease..and believe me, i am as cheap as could be after a 1.5y of no tenant period
BC, rates, water extortion (1k a year with 0 usage) ,fire safety obligation are huge costs. And could not care less about a recession


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## qldfrog (26 June 2019)

To stress this fact:
Completed yesterday relocation of small suburban queenslander onto already own land
Cost of actual building relocated rewired replumbered?
Around 95 to $100k inc 40k or so labour
Final cost 155k
55k in fees and mandatory compliance costs such as bushfire rating,  environmental obligation
And that is using preexisting house capitalising on 1950s hourly rate and materials..hardwood not pine, etc
So by that example  even  with free land and labour, you need to pay 100k min for a 2/3 bedrooms in Oz
That is the min start price in Australia


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## Humid (26 June 2019)

https://reiwa.com.au/uploadedfiles/public/content/the_wa_market/house-prices-2013-web.pdf

It’s currently around 480k


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## SirRumpole (26 June 2019)

Industrial robots, good news and bad news.

https://www.abc.net.au/news/2019-06...-by-20m-jobs-lost-globally-to-robots/11245092


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## sptrawler (26 June 2019)

qldfrog said:


> To stress this fact:
> Completed yesterday relocation of small suburban queenslander onto already own land
> Cost of actual building relocated rewired replumbered?
> Around 95 to $100k inc 40k or so labour
> ...



Just shows how things have changed frog, I did exactly the same thing in 1982, purchase the house had it transported 200klm, restumped $14k job and finish.


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## Junior (26 June 2019)

moXJO said:


> My favourite ice-cream store shut down the other day. Terrible moment...
> 
> There are a lot of 'for lease' signs on shop fronts as well.
> 
> ...




Whereabouts are you located?  Bunnings around here (Inner SE Melbourne) seem to be busy most of the time.


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## satanoperca (26 June 2019)

Humid said:


> https://reiwa.com.au/uploadedfiles/public/content/the_wa_market/house-prices-2013-web.pdf
> 
> It’s currently around 480k






Using 1974 as the base, each red bar represents a doubling of house prices.
If we look at past performance of the market, it seems Perth with well overdue for median price of around $580K, so if it is currently $480K, seems that it could be a good buy, that is if you believe past performance can be used to predict future performance


----------



## wayneL (26 June 2019)

Just chatting with some og my Komrades, all are experiencing accounts receivables issues more than they have for many years.


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## qldfrog (26 June 2019)

Something to share argue with others.
Noticed today diesel is cheaper than unleaded North Brisbane
From memory, last time i saw that was after the GFC
So diesel aka industrial demand down?


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## moXJO (26 June 2019)

Junior said:


> Whereabouts are you located?  Bunnings around here (Inner SE Melbourne) seem to be busy most of the time.



South of Sydney. Its a bit of a bellwether area.


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## moXJO (26 June 2019)

qldfrog said:


> To stress this fact:
> Completed yesterday relocation of small suburban queenslander onto already own land
> Cost of actual building relocated rewired replumbered?
> Around 95 to $100k inc 40k or so labour
> ...



Compliance costs and associated bs is crazy in this country.


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## SirRumpole (26 June 2019)

Dairy industry in the doldrums.

A lot bought on by the drought, but buying $10,000 coffee machines won't solve the problem.

https://www.abc.net.au/news/2019-06-26/dairy-farmers-mass-exodus-from-the-industry/11215730


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## sptrawler (28 June 2019)

sptrawler said:


> You are right, but when it is a hot property market, everyone thinks property, how to save for it, where to buy it, keep an eye on prices, put things off.
> When the herd turns, it is all bad news, property prices crashing, apartments with problems etc.
> Then the people on the side lines say, we will save a little longer, we will take that holiday we put off.
> It takes a lot to stop the slide, people have to believe it has bottomed, I don't think they do.
> ...




It seems that what we thought has happened, and things wont change quickly.

https://www.smh.com.au/business/the...e-than-40-years-rba-says-20190628-p522ay.html

From the article:
_CommSec economist Craig James put the overall slump in lending for property buying down to "low inflation, lower home prices,* an investor strike* *and competition from other asset classes*_*.*
Once the herd has turned, it is hard to pull it up and change its direction, investors have been given a scare on a few fronts so they are focusing on new frontiers. IMO


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## SirRumpole (28 June 2019)

Tough love ?

Qld to slash drought subsidies.

Helping farmers to "harden up" ?

https://www.abc.net.au/news/2019-06...nd-frieght-subsidies-slashed-by-2021/11260042


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## SirRumpole (29 June 2019)

Not sure where to put this, it's more than a "General Chat" story as it has investment implications for those that invest in the honey industry generally.

https://www.abc.net.au/news/2019-06...-leatherwood-trees-in-remote-forests/11262364


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## Smurf1976 (2 July 2019)

https://www.abc.net.au/news/program...7-02/a-nation-making-coffee-not-cars/11272684

It seems some are starting to wake up.

A bit late, it has only taken ~40 years after the problems with the "low value service economy" idea became all too apparent to anyone who gave the idea some thought, but at least they've worked it out eventually.

Now how do we fix it?


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## sptrawler (3 July 2019)

Smurf1976 said:


> https://www.abc.net.au/news/program...7-02/a-nation-making-coffee-not-cars/11272684
> 
> It seems some are starting to wake up.
> 
> ...



Well maybe the media, starting to focus on economic issues, rather than political and social theatre would be a good start. IMO


----------



## PZ99 (3 July 2019)

Smurf1976 said:


> https://www.abc.net.au/news/program...7-02/a-nation-making-coffee-not-cars/11272684
> 
> It seems some are starting to wake up.
> 
> ...



We can't fix it. I voted against the removal of subsidising the auto industry.
But it happened and this is the result..

200,000 manufacturing jobs gone in 7 years. Our current political narrative to the manufacturing industry is if you want to build something, you do it with your own money and without Govt subsidies. With a population as small as Australia's in a high taxing low tariff environment, manufacturing will never be viable. Even those coffee machines are mostly made in China.


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## qldfrog (3 July 2019)

And it is not limited to manufacturing of big greasy mechanical parts, be it software or robots, medical devices we are out...
Too many disadvantages being here
Heartbreaking for an engineer


----------



## SirRumpole (3 July 2019)

Smurf1976 said:


> https://www.abc.net.au/news/program...7-02/a-nation-making-coffee-not-cars/11272684
> 
> It seems some are starting to wake up.
> 
> ...




Either bring back the car industry or move into another technical manufacturing area like electronics. But I doubt if the current government has any intention of doing anything so "risky".


----------



## SirRumpole (3 July 2019)

PZ99 said:


> With a population as small as Australia's in a high taxing low tariff environment, manufacturing will never be viable.




Well , that's the problem isn't it ? The powers that be equate 'viable' with 'profitable'. They don't take account of the need to have a capacity to produce technology in case the world goes pear shaped and we other countries can't or decide not to sell stuff to us.

Every country that produces cars subsidises that industry because they realise the importance of a manufacturing base to their economies.


----------



## Value Collector (3 July 2019)

SirRumpole said:


> Well , that's the problem isn't it ? The powers that be equate 'viable' with 'profitable'. They don't take account of the need to have a capacity to produce technology in case the world goes pear shaped and we other countries can't or decide not to sell stuff to us.
> 
> Every country that produces cars subsidises that industry because they realise the importance of a manufacturing base to their economies.




The longterm trend has been and will continue to be towards greater globalization, and a greater “division of labour” among nations around the world.

In my opinion subsidizing a car industry would be silly.

I mean if Australia needs its own car industry because it fears other countries might stop selling us cars, maybe each state needs a car industry Incase Victoria stops selling to Queensland, and maybe each town needs is own industry Incase Brisbane stops selling to Townsville etc etc.

———-

If having an industry makes sense, it wouldn’t have died in the first place.


----------



## SirRumpole (3 July 2019)

Value Collector said:


> I mean if Australia needs its own car industry because it fears other countries might stop selling us cars, maybe each state needs a car industry Incase Victoria stops selling to Queensland, and maybe each town needs is own industry Incase Brisbane stops selling to Townsville etc etc.




That's just a silly comment. States are not independent countries. We are a small market globally and usually get what's left over after the US and other markets get what they want. But is South Australia going to stop selling to NSW when the NSW market is 10 times SA's ?


----------



## HelloU (3 July 2019)

OT
trade restrictions between states under a variety of "rationales" is alive and kicking. Always back self interest in any battle. Try getting a water increase in Sth Oz from the murray-darling, or try to buy some Qld prawns if u r in WA.

at some point each of us has to decide if we want to drink water with our prawn lunch.


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## sptrawler (3 July 2019)

https://au.yahoo.com/finance/news/80000-a-year-jobs-no-australian-wants-200000884.html
Still struggling for workers?


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## Value Collector (3 July 2019)

SirRumpole said:


> That's just a silly comment. States are not independent countries. We are a small market globally and usually get what's left over after the US and other markets get what they want. But is South Australia going to stop selling to NSW when the NSW market is 10 times SA's ?




Countries are just lines on a map mate.

Companies sell to the highest bidder.

Haven’t you already complained in other threads that Queensland’s gas production is being shipped to China rather than sent down to nsw?

Ofcourse Queensland being a state rather than an independent nation doesn’t stop the companies that control production shipping the produce to who ever pays the most.


----------



## Klogg (3 July 2019)

Value Collector said:


> The longterm trend has been and will continue to be towards greater globalization, and a greater “division of labour” among nations around the world.
> 
> In my opinion subsidizing a car industry would be silly.
> 
> ...




Exactly. Subsidizing an industry just means we're not using the most efficient path to an outcome. By removing the subsidy, we immediately become more productive.

Productivity improvements look scary short term, but the longer term move to more productive industries can only be good. This is ultimately responsible for raising living standards across the globe.


----------



## Smurf1976 (3 July 2019)

Value Collector said:


> Companies sell to the highest bidder.



In general yes but there are exceptions.

Doesn't apply to those not transacting in cash or its equivalent. Party A funds the construction of party B's rather facilities and is repaid with product not $. Bonus = avoids tax so no chance they'll sell to anyone else unless they're willing to pay a seriously high price that would be totally uneconomic.

Also doesn't apply to any company if the national government decides you can't sell to or buy from whoever. Applies in any country but seems to be a bit of a thing in the USA recently.

Within Australia, well there's something somewhere in the constitution about not being able to restrict trade between states. The SA government once had the idea of ending gas supplies to NSW but it turned out to be unconstitutional was the advice. It wasn't a "nasty" intent, they were just trying to boost development in SA and proposed an end date well into the future, noting that NSW had in the past cut off coal supplies to SA on too many occasions to remember and that Vic also wouldn't supply NSW with gas at the time (although that was technically the decision of a private company not government) so assumed it was doable. Turned out not to be.

Fruit etc well quarantine is a perfectly reasonable and sensible idea. Biology and not spreading pests should always trump economics and artificial human constructs.


----------



## Smurf1976 (3 July 2019)

Klogg said:


> Productivity improvements look scary short term, but the longer term move to more productive industries can only be good.



Trouble is that after ~40 years of going down this path, and that's roughly someone's entire working life, it's still not really working.

Look at the cafes, tourism and so on and the sort of employment they're offering. Not even $80K a year and in many cases not even permanent full time so it's in no way comparable to what has been lost with manufacturing.


----------



## Value Collector (3 July 2019)

Klogg said:


> Exactly. Subsidizing an industry just means we're not using the most efficient path to an outcome. By removing the subsidy, we immediately become more productive.
> 
> Productivity improvements look scary short term, but the longer term move to more productive industries can only be good. This is ultimately responsible for raising living standards across the globe.




The light on the hill that I want to strive for is a super efficient, global economy, where all stake holders respect that peace and trade are the ways to maximize our standard of living. 

Talking about subsidizing, tariffs and stopping imports etc is a step back in my opinion.

———-

I actually think the world embracing Chinese imports has been wonderful, as it’s helped life millions out of poverty.

Buying cheap products from China has been more beneficial than the billions sent to Africa in aid.

Not that I think aid is bad, I just think trade is better.


----------



## Value Collector (3 July 2019)

Smurf1976 said:


> Trouble is that after ~40 years of going down this path, and that's roughly someone's entire working life, it's still not really working.
> 
> Look at the cafes, tourism and so on and the sort of employment they're offering. Not even $80K a year and in many cases not even permanent full time so it's in no way comparable to what has been lost with manufacturing.




We are doing pretty well, if we had to lose a few industries to help pull China out of poverty, I think that’s great.

Especially because we still managed to increase our standard of living at the same time.

To me I don’t think giving some one a job in a cafe is worse than making them hunch over a sewing machine.


----------



## sptrawler (3 July 2019)

Klogg said:


> Exactly. Subsidizing an industry just means we're not using the most efficient path to an outcome. By removing the subsidy, we immediately become more productive.
> 
> Productivity improvements look scary short term, but the longer term move to more productive industries can only be good. This is ultimately responsible for raising living standards across the globe.



This is one thing people fail to realise, it is just as important to utilise our resources in the most efficient way, as it is to improve our emissions.
Wasting resources and wasting energy converting them inefficiently, is just as much an act of environmental vandalism, as burning fossil fuel to generate power.
It is just that no one is making an issue about. YET


----------



## Value Collector (3 July 2019)

Smurf1976 said:


> In general yes but there are exceptions.
> 
> Doesn't apply to those not transacting in cash or its equivalent. Party A funds the construction of party B's rather facilities and is repaid with product not $. Bonus = avoids tax so no chance they'll sell to anyone else unless they're willing to pay a seriously high price that would be totally uneconomic.
> 
> ...




I want to live in a world where we look at other countries the same as we currently look at other states.


----------



## Value Collector (3 July 2019)

Call me old fashioned, but I think Adam smith had the right idea.


----------



## Smurf1976 (3 July 2019)

Value Collector said:


> Especially because we still managed to increase our standard of living at the same time.



For many we did.

But if someone is in a casual job on $25 an hour then, among other problems, banks won't give them a mortgage and even if they did, it wouldn't be enough to buy even a modest house.

The big problem we've got, both socially and economically, is that the gap between the top and the bottom is far too wide and those at the bottom are far worse off in relative terms than they were in the past.

Anyone working in a factory could at least buy a house with their wages. That we've got many who can't today means we're going backwards not forwards. As more find themselves toward the bottom, it's no wonder they're not spending and nor are the rest who fear ending up in that situation.


----------



## Value Collector (3 July 2019)

Smurf1976 said:


> For many we did.
> 
> But if someone is in a casual job on $25 an hour then, among other problems, banks won't give them a mortgage and even if they did, it wouldn't be enough to buy even a modest house.
> 
> ...




The problem is not the gap between the top and the bottom!!!

The problem is that a low income Aussie believes they are on the bottom, when they are actually in the top 10%.

If the world is in the process of lifting millions of people out of stark poverty, and some Aussie complains he lost his job and has to go on the dole, and by VB instead of Heineken I don’t feel that sorry for him.

At the end of the day, he will have a home, he will be fed, his kids will be educated, vaccinated and clothed, life is not that bad.

All we are witnessing is a smoothing out process, most of us are greatly increasing our life styles compared to our parents some are stalling, but the majority of the globally population if seeing big increases.


----------



## sptrawler (3 July 2019)

Smurf1976 said:


> For many we did.
> 
> But if someone is in a casual job on $25 an hour then, among other problems, banks won't give them a mortgage and even if they did, it wouldn't be enough to buy even a modest house.
> 
> ...



The whole premise in Australia, is that wealth is totally dependent on owning a house and currently is measured by the ability to own a house in either Sydney or Melbourne.
If you removed housing from the equation, most people have never been better off.
Maybe the Government, should look more closely at building social housing, in a joint ownership model.
Firstly it would be a fiscal stimulus, it would remove the supply demand problem associated with privately funded social housing and probably would put an end to the boom and bust cycle. 
Just a thought, but I'm sure a lot of European Countries, with high living standards don't have the home ownership drive Australians have in the psyche.


----------



## Smurf1976 (3 July 2019)

Value Collector said:


> The problem is not the gap between the top and the bottom!!!
> 
> The problem is that a low income Aussie believes they are on the bottom, when they are actually in the top 10%.



How does someone earning $25 an hour as a casual spend on cars, housing and all the other stuff which keeps the economy going?

The thread's about the state of the economy not how to make China wealthy.


----------



## Value Collector (3 July 2019)

Smurf1976 said:


> How does someone earning $25 an hour as a casual spend on cars, housing and all the other stuff which keeps the economy going?
> 
> The thread's about the state of the economy not how to make China wealthy.




The thread title doesn’t state “Australian economy” or “Queensland’s economy”or “west townsville economy”  etc etc.

It just says economy, so to me that’s the global economy, because I don’t really see a differences between a guy losing his job in Sydney to a guy losing his job in Los Angles, London, Shanghai or Bangladesh.

As long as the entire global economy is heading in the right direction, individual countries can fluctuate and I don’t care. 

If the Aussie economy was doing fantastic, but on average the world was going backwards, I would see that as a Loss not a win.


----------



## Smurf1976 (3 July 2019)

sptrawler said:


> The whole premise in Australia, is that wealth is totally dependent on owning a house and currently is measured by the ability to own a house in either Sydney or Melbourne.



A big part of the issue there is that renting in Australia is rather crap compared to other places. Lots of restrictions, substandard accommodation and a lack of security for the tenant being the big issue there hence most want to buy. Obviously there are good landlords but there's plenty of shockers. 

Regardless of the details however, it remains the case that we're going backwards if someone doing a basic job could buy a house, car and whatever 50 years ago but someone in the same situation can't do the same today. 

That so many have housing, utilities and so on taking such a huge chunk of their income, and their income itself is casual not a permanent thing, explains the reluctance or outright inability to spend on non-essentials which is now impacting the economy.


----------



## Smurf1976 (3 July 2019)

Value Collector said:


> The thread title doesn’t state “Australian economy” or “Queensland’s economy”or “west townsville economy”  etc etc.
> 
> It just says economy, so to me that’s the global economy, because I don’t really see a differences between a guy losing his job in Sydney to a guy losing his job in Los Angles, London, Shanghai or Bangladesh.



True but it's "at the street level" so I'm making an assumption that on an Australian forum most contributors will be spending more time "on the street" in Australia than in some other country. Hence my assumption that we're talking about the Australian economy unless stated otherwise.

It's a fair point though, it's not specifically stated. 

To clarify, my comments are in relation to Australia as a whole and not to any particular town or state unless specified otherwise.


----------



## sptrawler (3 July 2019)

Smurf1976 said:


> A big part of the issue there is that renting in Australia is rather crap compared to other places. Lots of restrictions, substandard accommodation and a lack of security for the tenant being the big issue there hence most want to buy. Obviously there are good landlords but there's plenty of shockers.
> 
> Regardless of the details however, it remains the case that we're going backwards if someone doing a basic job could buy a house, car and whatever 50 years ago but someone in the same situation can't do the same today.
> 
> That so many have housing, utilities and so on taking such a huge chunk of their income, and their income itself is casual not a permanent thing, explains the reluctance or outright inability to spend on non-essentials which is now impacting the economy.



I know what you are saying, but I will give you an example of something that has happened near my place.
An elderly lady passed away and here 2 bed unit, in a small complex, went on the market.
A single mum probably around 30 yrs old bought it, I asked her where she works, apparently in a bread shop. So I asked how she managed to buy the place, she said with a small deposit and the payments are $50 a week less than where she was renting.
The unit is one street off the waterfront in Mandurah, 60k's South of Perth.
I know not everyone wants to move, to where housing is affordable, but it will never be possible for everyone to live in Melbourne or Sydney.
People want not only a house they want a new house, close to all amenities, in a nice suburb with growth potential. That would be nice, if everyone could get that, but in reality who is going to buy the houses in country towns and do the jobs there?


----------



## PZ99 (3 July 2019)

Smurf1976 said:


> True but it's "at the street level" so I'm making an assumption that on an Australian forum most contributors will be spending more time "on the street" in Australia than in some other country. Hence my assumption that we're talking about the Australian economy unless stated otherwise.
> 
> It's a fair point though, it's not specifically stated.
> 
> To clarify, my comments are in relation to Australia as a whole and not to any particular town or state unless specified otherwise.




That's a fair assumption @Smurf1976 

When you look at the first post and the first page - it's abundantly clear the thread is about the local economy. There seems little point comparing it with Shanghai or Bangladesh.

As for subsidies; it's worth remembering every time you buy a product you are subsidising that industry and the ancillary jobs that come with it such as parts > sales > local economies.

I'm not sure that subsidising the Korean auto industry is the way to go for Australia.

Then again - on $25 a hour you won't be subsidising anything much - not even the taxman.


----------



## Smurf1976 (3 July 2019)

sptrawler said:


> If you removed housing from the equation, most people have never been better off. Maybe the Government, should look more closely at building social housing, in a joint ownership model.



Agreed but the difficulty is a political one. Lots of people who will stand in the way.

Lots of buyers / renters want a house on a decent size block in the suburbs.

Lots of developers and others who want to build 50 story buildings full of 1 bedroom apartments which are built for investors to maximise profit, they're not built with those living in them in mind.

Lots of existing owners of both developed properties and undeveloped land who will resist any move to bring prices down to more sensible levels.

And so on. Trying to keep everyone happy is holding us back economically in my view. Sometimes, well you just can't do that and someone has to take the hit.


----------



## Smurf1976 (3 July 2019)

sptrawler said:


> I know not everyone wants to move, to where housing is affordable, but it will never be possible for everyone to live in Melbourne or Sydney.



I certainly agree that from a national perspective there's not a lot of logic in having ~40% of the population living in two places given the size of the country.

It didn't used to be that way, it's another example of how we've become very lopsided.

Eg at one point in Australia's history Adelaide was the third largest city by population and Tasmania was the third largest state economy. True in both cases at different times in the past and I'd argue that the whole country would gain from strengthening the economy in places like the NT, Tas, SA etc and for that matter I'd include Perth, as distinct from parts of WA with mining etc, in that too.

I've nothing against Sydney or Melbourne but trying to cram everyone in there doesn't make a lot of sense to me. The US doesn't have such a high concentration of people living in LA and NY. The UK doesn't have everyone living in London. Etc.


----------



## sptrawler (3 July 2019)

Smurf1976 said:


> Agreed but the difficulty is a political one. Lots of people who will stand in the way.
> 
> Lots of buyers / renters want a house on a decent size block in the suburbs.
> 
> ...




Like you say lots of people want a house on a block of land, then you get urban sprawl, everyone wants a lawn and we have to desalinate water to water it.
Also it takes a lot of power to desalinate it, and everyone wants clean power, there is a lot of conflicts and unrealistic expectations in our society ATM.
I think people need to accept, not everyone can have everything they want and those that work hardest and sacrifice are most likely to achieve it.
Nothing much has changed really. IMO 
The only thing that has changed a lot, is those who make the most noise, get the media's ear as it is easy reporting.


----------



## SirRumpole (3 July 2019)

Value Collector said:


> I want to live in a world where we look at other countries the same as we currently look at other states.




Who doesn't ?

It just won't happen.

Everyone looks after themselves, Trump is a prime example.

As long as there are different ideologies in the world, your Nirvana is impossible.


----------



## SirRumpole (3 July 2019)

Value Collector said:


> Ofcourse Queensland being a state rather than an independent nation doesn’t stop the companies that control production shipping the produce to who ever pays the most.




Governments have the right to enforce a local reservation policy for gas or any other product.

We are the only gas exporter in the world that does not do this.

Your mates in the military were complaining that we have about 50 days oil reserves instead of 90 . Some one should start looking after our interests.

https://www.abc.net.au/news/2018-08-13/australia-still-not-meeting-oil-reserve-obligations/10114906


----------



## sptrawler (3 July 2019)

SirRumpole said:


> Who doesn't ?
> 
> It just won't happen.
> 
> ...




As you say Rumpy, Trump is looking after the U.S and we are wanting to protect our manufacturing, so in reality we are saying exactly what Trump is doing.
It is just we are too small an economy to get any traction.
As people on here have said we should be subsidising our (I mean the U.S's) car industry, so we can at least work for them, and get our pay packet (I mean some of our subsidy money)back.


----------



## qldfrog (3 July 2019)

Klogg said:


> Exactly. Subsidizing an industry just means we're not using the most efficient path to an outcome. By removing the subsidy, we immediately become more productive.
> 
> Productivity improvements look scary short term, but the longer term move to more productive industries can only be good. This is ultimately responsible for raising living standards across the globe.



True on a global scale but not everyone plays the game, and for the west it means destruction of jobs and wealth while 1.5 billion chineses and a lot of mid tier countries benefits
Good in a global term as long as you are not American European or Australian and used to be employed.
Nice to see even now some people still believe the speech
Now tell that to australian companies selling goods on the internet with lowest parcel postage fee at 9.95aud fighting chineses able to send free postage goods for 1aud
True example based on a canned business idea for 3d printed widgets i had 2y ago
Sure i can try being more efficient, but our welfare system, taxes, multi tier governments are not...
You can NOT have it all


----------



## Klogg (3 July 2019)

qldfrog said:


> True on a global scale but not everyone plays the game, and for the west it means destruction of jobs and wealth while 1.5 billion chineses and a lot of mid tier countries benefits
> Good in a global term as long as you are not American European or Australian and used to be employed.
> Nice to see even now some people still believe the speech
> Now tell that to australian companies selling goods on the internet with lowest parcel postage fee at 9.95aud fighting chineses able to send free postage goods for 1aud
> ...




So some have to find new jobs while everyone else benefits from higher productivity. We get the same output for less and can afford to spend incrementally more on things like welfare.

Just because someone loses a job to their Chinese counterpart, it doesn't make it bad. There's some adjustment to be had in terms of reallocating people to jobs, but it's a win for the Chinese and Australians.

If you take your narrative to it's extreme, we can go to the state level, then suburb and lower. And you can see how clearly absurd it becomes at that point... Eventually we all have to do everything, caveman style.

Trade is good, no matter which way you look at it. Only very few regulations need to be in place, and subsidies for things that don't stack up is not one of them.


----------



## Value Collector (3 July 2019)

SirRumpole said:


> Who doesn't ?
> 
> It just won't happen.
> 
> ...




It’s moving in the right direction, as I said the trend is towards trade and globalism


----------



## Klogg (3 July 2019)

Value Collector said:


> It’s moving in the right direction, as I said the trend is towards trade and globalism




In line with your post, I would argue that it *must *happen. If you're not competitive in an industry, the required subsidies will continue to grow until it's just too costly to prop up.

If Australia were producing EVERYTHING it needed, standards of living would drop way too much.


----------



## SirRumpole (3 July 2019)

Value Collector said:


> It’s moving in the right direction, as I said the trend is towards trade and globalism




If China was a democracy I would be more inclined to agree with you.

As it is, they steal technology which robs other countries of the ability to compete on a level playing ground and a lot of their wealth goes to their military which is not there for the benefit of us.

Whether you have your eyes closed or not, one day they will be a military threat and we will have to deal with that and it won't be easy.


----------



## Smurf1976 (3 July 2019)

SirRumpole said:


> If China was a democracy I would be more inclined to agree with you.



Suppose that we both run competing take away outlets.

You can pay your workers $5 an hour, you can pour your used cooking oil straight down the drain and you get all your supplies dirt cheap.

I have to pay my workers $25 an hour, I have to recycle the oil, I'm paying far more for everything from chips to electricity.

We're both selling the same products and since we're competing necessarily neither can charge significantly more than the other. 

Not hard to work out who's going to make a fortune and who's going to be out of business.

I'm all for providing assistance to Third World countries and that can certainly include buying their products but (1) China is not in 2019 a Third World country by any reasonable definition and (2) in doing so we shouldn't be wiping out entire industries with no viable replacement activity in our own country.

If someone in Australia has a job which seems to have an ongoing future, has no real concern about the availability of another job even if it did go, has an income that rises a few % each year and which comfortably exceeds necessary living expenses well then sure, they're going to be spending on non-essentials and keeping the economy going.

If however they're legitimately concerned about the prospect of ending up involuntarily unemployed and can barely pay the bills as it is, well then they're not going to be spending on more than the basics and that then kills the broader economy.

There's no denying that Australia is one of the better places in the world to be living and that life for the average person has never been better but there's many who do indeed seem to be going backwards. If a grade 10 education got you a full time job and a new build house in the outer suburbs 50 years ago then something's wrong when even a university degree won't enable someone born 50 years later to buy a comparable house today. 

That's going seriously backwards and leads to a situation where the only solution for most involves battening down the hatches and slashing spending. Hence retail sales, car sales etc all in a heap.


----------



## Smurf1976 (3 July 2019)

Klogg said:


> If Australia were producing EVERYTHING it needed, standards of living would drop way too much.



Nobody would seriously suggest we ought to do that. We never did it and few if any ever have.

On the other hand it also doesn't work to have what amounts to a coffee shop economy where the coffee shops aren't paying enough and are offering only a narrow range of work.

As with anything, the best outcome would be one somewhere in the middle.


----------



## satanoperca (3 July 2019)

SirRumpole said:


> If China was a democracy I would be more inclined to agree with you.
> 
> As it is, they steal technology which robs other countries of the ability to compete on a level playing ground and a lot of their wealth goes to their military which is not there for the benefit of us.
> 
> Whether you have your eyes closed or not, one day they will be a military threat and we will have to deal with that and it won't be easy.




There always has to be one, it seems it is you.

Lets look at your comments :
"If China was a democracy I would be more inclined to agree with you." Agreed it is not, but the USA is and how is it looking after it people, or for argument sack, Australia. 

"As it is, they steal technology" Cry me a river, I think you will find every society within every country is guilt of it. But lets go with your theme, they do. Who buys it? The people from countries that they stole it from. I have no doubt, that within your home or work, you will find products and services that have stolen IP, do you care or even know? I doubt it.

"a lot of their wealth goes to their military which is not there for the benefit of us." Really, can you provide some figures in relation to GDP, think you might find that China spends less on arms as a % of GDP than many other countries. 

"Whether you have your eyes closed or not, one day they will be a military threat and we will have to deal with that and it won't be easy." Agree, but so is the USA, it is just that we are friends at the moment. What happens when we no longer choose their side, will they be so friendly.

You amaze me with your understanding of the world, past and present or lack of it.

How about you remove all the items that you use daily that have not come from China and see how your week fairs.


----------



## sptrawler (3 July 2019)

There is absolutely no reason high tech industries can't be built here, why we export rare earths, lithium, cadmium, nickel etc, to be processed and turned into batteries and electronic components overseas is ridiculous.
The processes are not labour intensive and the component factories are in large fully automated, so the cost of labour really isn't a consideration.
The cost of energy is obviously a concern, that needs addressing.


----------



## Value Collector (3 July 2019)

Klogg said:


> In line with your post, I would argue that it *must *happen. If you're not competitive in an industry, the required subsidies will continue to grow until it's just too costly to prop up.
> 
> If Australia were producing EVERYTHING it needed, standards of living would drop way too much.




You only have to look at North Korea to see isolationist attitudes don’t work.


----------



## SirRumpole (3 July 2019)

satanoperca said:


> What happens when we no longer choose their side, will they be so friendly.




What side do you suggest we choose ?



satanoperca said:


> How about you remove all the items that you use daily that have not come from China and see how your week fairs.




If you need something and all the products come from China you don't have much choice do you ?

I avoid Chinese products whenever I can especially food.

PS you are welcome to move there if you think it's so great.


----------



## Smurf1976 (3 July 2019)

Value Collector said:


> You only have to look at North Korea to see isolationist attitudes don’t work.



No argument there but you only have to look at the USA to see what happens with the opposite of minimal regulation. Go and walk the streets in some poorer areas at night - actually don't do that.....

There has to be a balance somewhere and it'll be somewhere in the middle not at either extreme.

Isolationist = North Korea as you point out.

No regulation = industry just moves to exploit cheap labour and lax standards over safety and the environment

Neither ought to be considered acceptable these days. 

The point isn't about China as such though but about how things are going here in Australia and that lack of higher wage jobs and growth of low wage service industry roles does seem to be a very real problem.


----------



## Tyler Durden (3 July 2019)

Haven't checked this site for ages and am glad this thread is still going.

For my part, I have noticed quite a few stores shutting down in Sydney CBD. Some remain vacant with a 'for lease' sign on it, and others are replaced by another store selling the same type of stuff the previous store sold (makes sense!).

I also collect sneakers and whilst in 2014-2016 everyone was buying everything, it seems like now people are a lot more selective and are willing to sell their collections at a loss.


----------



## Junior (4 July 2019)

Spoke with a client of ours, who has a senior role in a group who own a number of clothing & apparel brands.  They supply to major department stores and have chains of their own stores.

In her words, "don't buy shares in Wesfarmers, Kmart & Target are f*cked".

It should be noted she knows nothing about investing or about Wesfarmers other business ventures, but she does know about clothing businesses.


----------



## HelloU (4 July 2019)

chicks that talk dirty .....


----------



## moXJO (4 July 2019)

Apparently we are in a trade surplus. Iron ore to China must be pumping again.
Also Aluminum exports to the US are up by 350%. 

Trump had a tepid whinge. But the USA knows if they stiff us,  then they are out of Asia. China is keeping us onside with good trade.
Perhaps good times are coming again sooner than expected.

Locally, the restaurant and cafes are quiet. Noticed a bit of a bounce to some retail. Perhaps June 30 spending. But still looks fairly tough out there.


----------



## PZ99 (4 July 2019)

If the USA stiff us, we should recover the loss dollar for dollar by withdrawing our troops from Afghanistan citing a budget emergency


----------



## moXJO (4 July 2019)

As for globalization of trade,  I'm in two minds.
Cheaper goods, yep ok. Problem is there seems to be a lack of quality as decent manufacturers can't compete. We are then left with sht disposable products with an ever growing waste problem/ product failure.

We are also off shoring pollution. Most poorer countries are just pumping crap into the air, land and sea. They do not have the restrictions on pollution the same way western countries do. 

China steals the tech and its a massive problem. To operate there you have to give them everything. 

We now probably live in a more dangerous world because of globalization.


----------



## moXJO (4 July 2019)

PZ99 said:


> If the USA stiff us, we should recover the loss dollar for dollar by withdrawing our troops from Afghanistan citing a budget emergency



US knows they can't p1ss us off. No offense to them. But their country is divided and looking like a basket case. Russia troll farms really did a number on them. 
No wonder China banned social media.


----------



## satanoperca (4 July 2019)

moXJO said:


> Cheaper goods, yep ok. Problem is there seems to be a lack of quality as decent manufacturers can't compete. We are then left with sht disposable products with an ever growing waste problem/ product failure.




We live in a disposable society of I want it now but maybe not later, so I don't want to spend much.

Your are correct, quality manufacturers can't compete. The furniture manufacturing sector in Oz is almost dead. Why, they cannot compete on cheap imports is one reason. Another is people don't buy furniture to last a lifetime anymore, as fashions change. Just think of Ikea, cheap, reasonably good design, okay quality, disposable. Do Ikea pay for the landfill, or do Ikea even pay any taxes in Australia? How is a local to compete?

As for the common theme of China stealing IP, they most likely do, however, from my experiences, it is westerners that take other peoples IP to China and ask the Chinese to duplicate it/replicate it. So there is always two parties to a transaction.

I think if people research more, they will find that China is spending enormous amounts on R&D and design in all industry sectors, they will become the world leaders in innovation.

A simple example is the area of LED production, the USA thought they would dominate the production of LED's over 10 years ago, however China is the one leading this area in innovation and production.


----------



## Value Collector (4 July 2019)

Smurf1976 said:


> No argument there but you only have to look at the USA to see what happens with the opposite of minimal regulation. Go and walk the streets in some poorer areas at night - actually don't do that.....
> 
> There has to be a balance somewhere and it'll be somewhere in the middle not at either extreme.
> 
> ...




I have never said I was against regulation, I am against nationalistic and isolationist thinking.

I also am totally in favor of welfare safety nets etc, which is where the USA’s real problem lies.


----------



## Klogg (4 July 2019)

satanoperca said:


> We live in a disposable society of I want it now but maybe not later, so I don't want to spend much.
> 
> Your are correct, quality manufacturers can't compete. The furniture manufacturing sector in Oz is almost dead. Why, they cannot compete on cheap imports is one reason. Another is people don't buy furniture to last a lifetime anymore, as fashions change. Just think of Ikea, cheap, reasonably good design, okay quality, disposable. Do Ikea pay for the landfill, or do Ikea even pay any taxes in Australia? How is a local to compete?
> 
> ...




Your argument assumes price and quality are synonymous. They're not.

I would argue the quality of furniture hasn't changed, your perception of it has changed due to the cost reduction. Ikea furniture is relatively decent quality (given the flat-pack nature of it). There's no reason for it to be 'disposable' and if it wasn't so cheap very few people would think that to be the case.


----------



## Value Collector (4 July 2019)

I love the USA, I think it’s a great nation, of course it does have issues, but it does a hell of a job of moving products and services around, and suppling a high standard of living for most.

It just needs to do better about making sure people aren’t left behind, but there is some crazy ideological problems to over come.


----------



## SirRumpole (4 July 2019)

Value Collector said:


> I love the USA, I think it’s a great nation, of course it does have issues, but it does a hell of a job of moving products and services around, and suppling a high standard of living for most.
> 
> It just needs to do better about making sure people aren’t left behind, but there is some crazy ideological problems to over come.




Are you touting for the Democrats ?


----------



## Value Collector (4 July 2019)

SirRumpole said:


> Are you touting for the Democrats ?




Of course, I think what is Considered Left in the USA is much closer to what we would call middle or slightly right which is where I sit.

America’s Republican Party has evolved into a far right wing party in my opinion, our government is much closer to the USA Democratic Party in their views mostly.

Not to mention Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez is smart, funny and much more beautiful than Trump, Hahahaha


----------



## SirRumpole (4 July 2019)

Value Collector said:


> Of course, I think what is Considered Left in the USA is much closer to what we would call middle or slightly right which is where I sit.
> 
> America’s Republican Party has evolved into a far right wing party in my opinion, our government is much closer to the USA Democratic Party in their views mostly.
> 
> Not to mention Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez is smart, funny and much more beautiful than Trump, Hahahaha




Yep, pretty close to my views too.

Although Bernie could win, not a lot of beauty there but more than Trump. LOL


----------



## HelloU (4 July 2019)

Value Collector said:


> Of course, I think what is Considered Left in the USA is much closer to what we would call middle or slightly right which is where I sit.
> 
> America’s Republican Party has evolved into a far right wing party in my opinion, our government is much closer to the USA Democratic Party in their views mostly.
> 
> Not to mention Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez is smart, funny and much more beautiful than Trump, Hahahaha



if i said i have seen both of them naked and it is closer than you think - would you believe me?

edit:  all 3


----------



## Value Collector (4 July 2019)

HelloU said:


> if i said i have seen both of them naked and it is closer than you think - would you believe me?
> 
> edit:  all 3




Hahaha,.... No.


----------



## basilio (4 July 2019)

Very concerning story about changes in HECS repayments which have just come into effect
Long story short hundreds of thousands of graduates will be losing a ton more money soon - in fact a pay rise could result in taking home less money !

Not a good sign for boosting the economy.

 
 Tax 
* Do you understand the Hecs changes? Read this and be afraid for the entire economy *
Naaman Zhou

Now you can get a pay rise but end up paying more than you got. It’s simple but pernicious maths

Not enough people understand the maths behind Hecs. If we did, we would all shudder.

Not just on behalf of students, but for the whole economy.

On Monday the Hecs repayment threshold income was slashed to just $45,881 – the largest percentage drop in 23 years, the second-largest since Hecs began.

*  Hecs debt repayment changes: why more people will be forced to pay off student loans  *
Read more
It came in a week when the Reserve Bank told the country to, essentially, please spend more. The government has now passed huge income tax cuts aiming at achieving the same thing – to put more money in wallets and to get people to use it.

The catch? For hundreds of thousands of workers the benefit of that tax cut will be wiped out by the Hecs change. Completely. We’re back to the beginning.

There are two parts to the problem. The first is simple – lowering the threshold removes the point of the tax cut for everyone the new threshold touches.

The old threshold was $52,000. The government’s tax change has added $550 to an already legislated tax cut of $530. So for a salary of $50,000, you would have received $530 but paid no Hecs. Now you get $1,080 and pay $500. That’s your benefit gone.

The second part is that the Reserve Bank wants you to have a pay rise. The problem is that Hecs eats voraciously into it.

People seem to forget that Hecs has a different bracket structure to tax. Bracket creep under Hecs is brutal – it makes income tax brackets look weak. You can get a pay rise but end up repaying more than you received.

It affects your take-home pay, at a low income, when you – and the economy – need it the most

It’s simple but pernicious maths. Hecs applies a flat percentage to the whole of your earnings. As you earn more, that flat rate goes up. It’s not like income tax – where only the increase is hit with a higher rate.

Say you are on $51,000 a year. You’ll now be paying 1% to Hecs, which is $510 a year.

Then you get a $2,000 raise. That puts you to $53,000. You are now paying 2% Hecs, but it’s applied to your whole $53,000 earnings, not just the raise.

So you’re now paying $1,060 to Hecs. That’s $550 more, out of a $2,000 raise – and that’s not even counting the extra tax. That’s $650 more.

You’re left with only $800 of your $2,000 raise.

The bracket creep-fearers and the high-income earners who say “What’s the point of making more if just means more tax” would faint if that happened to them.

In a more extreme case, if you earned $52,500 a year and got a $500 raise, you’d go from paying $525 in Hecs to $1,060. You’re actually now $35 worse off.
https://www.theguardian.com/comment...ead-this-and-be-afraid-for-the-entire-economy


----------



## PZ99 (4 July 2019)

basilio said:


> Very concerning story about changes in HECS repayments which have just come into effect
> Long story short hundreds of thousands of graduates will be losing a ton more money soon - in fact a pay rise could result in taking home less money !
> 
> Not a good sign for boosting the economy.
> ...



Maybe they could circumvent that by putting their "raise" into their super and their income wouldn't change ?


----------



## sptrawler (4 July 2019)

PZ99 said:


> Maybe they could circumvent that by putting their "raise" into their super and their income wouldn't change ?



Maybe they could become tradies, and actually get jobs, rather than having to import people while everyone does an arts degree.


----------



## StockyGuy (4 July 2019)

Being expected to pay back a government debt a smidgen earlier is a bad thing?  It's in one's interest to get out of debt ASAP.  Too many middle aged people around with old HECS debts (who so often now working in utterly unrelated field) who don't consider it a "real" debt.


----------



## SirRumpole (4 July 2019)

I think it will just encourage people to move overseas and we will lose the investment.


----------



## sptrawler (4 July 2019)

SirRumpole said:


> I think it will just encourage people to move overseas and we will lose the investment.



How many jobs do you think there are overseas for art degrees? 
In Australia, we can't get students, to go into science and engineering courses.


----------



## jbocker (5 July 2019)

basilio said:


> Very concerning story about changes in HECS repayments which have just come into effect
> Long story short hundreds of thousands of graduates will be losing a ton more money soon - in fact a pay rise could result in taking home less money !
> 
> Not a good sign for boosting the economy.
> ...



I guess, for good of the economy it is hoped that we would spend our pay increase / tax saving that assist in job creating. The 'HECS creep' is counter to that, but what do you do; increase the HECS repayment thresholds? There comes a time when debt has to be repaid.


----------



## Smurf1976 (5 July 2019)

jbocker said:


> I guess, for good of the economy it is hoped that we would spend our pay increase / tax saving that assist in job creating.



My sample size is statistically insignificant but still, what I've heard thus far hasn't included a single example of someone who plans to use the money in a way that will actually boost the local economy.

Repaying some sort of debt, either an "official" debt such as a loan or an "unofficial" one such as utility bills, rates or rent that's late is one that gets a mention.

Overseas holidays another.

Saving / investing due to concerns about the future is the other.

That seems to capture what most are saying with anything else being an outlier and none of that generates more than minor incidental activity within Australia. Debts repaid, bank deposits, buying shares, going overseas - the flow on to the domestic economy is really just the incidentals.

Time will tell.


----------



## moXJO (5 July 2019)

Value Collector said:


> Not to mention Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez is smart, funny and much more beautiful than Trump, Hahahaha




You meant she is a bigger liar right.


----------



## qldfrog (16 July 2019)

https://www.afr.com/technology/tech...ls-to-attract-offshore-talent-20190711-p5266s
A sad fact that even with our sun and beaches, we were not able to attract 5 O/S entrepreneurs in 3 years with these visas
Even I sometimes think i could be too pessimistic about Australia but  such figures do not lie


----------



## Value Collector (16 July 2019)

moXJO said:


> You meant she is a bigger liar right.



Nope, I meant what I said.


----------



## wayneL (16 July 2019)

Value Collector said:


> Of course, I think what is Considered Left in the USA is much closer to what we would call middle or slightly right which is where I sit.
> 
> America’s Republican Party has evolved into a far right wing party in my opinion, our government is much closer to the USA Democratic Party in their views mostly.
> 
> Not to mention Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez is smart, funny and much more beautiful than Trump, Hahahaha



The Dems have become a very broad church (as are most political parties). Their corporatist Democrat arm,  Pelosi et al are probably pretty close to our Liberals (which is actually where Trump is, believe it or not).

Then you have Komrade Bernie who is closer to our Labor Party, but then you have the lunatic extreme leftist radicals like AOC and Omar. These are the most visible Dems right now, aided and abetted by Trump himself. As such,  it is forcing the moderates to pander to the extreme...  brilliant strategy by the Shxtlord in Chief.

As such,  it will be a cakewalk for the God-Emperor in 2020.

Nothing about the 'Pubs is *extreme right. Maybe some ultra conservative elements, but one should not follow the antifa supporting narrative of CNN et al, it's #fakenews.


----------



## wayneL (16 July 2019)

Value Collector said:


> Nope, I meant what I said.



AOC will cost the Dems a landslide defeat. This is why Pelosi and the moderates are trying to tell her to sit down and STFU.


----------



## Value Collector (16 July 2019)

wayneL said:


> AOC will cost the Dems a landslide defeat. This is why Pelosi and the moderates are trying to tell her to sit down and STFU.



I think you listen to Fox News types to much.

If you actually listen to be things Alexandria says (rather than what her opponents say she says), she is pretty much on the mark.


----------



## sptrawler (16 July 2019)

wayneL said:


> AOC will cost the Dems a landslide defeat. This is why Pelosi and the moderates are trying to tell her to sit down and STFU.



I don't follow U.S politics at all, but with all the press Trump attracts, it is always something I mention when talking to Americans.
From the feedback I have had, meeting Yanks in my travels, they all seem to say the same thing. He seems crazy, but the economy is improving a lot, so they will vote for him next election.
Time will tell.


----------



## lusk (16 July 2019)

Value Collector said:


> I think you listen to Fox News types to much.
> 
> If you actually listen to be things Alexandria says (rather than what her opponents say she says), she is pretty much on the mark.




Her actions speak louder, like stopping Amazon setting up in NY.


----------



## wayneL (16 July 2019)

Value Collector said:


> I think you listen to Fox News types to much.
> 
> If you actually listen to be things Alexandria says (rather than what her opponents say she says), she is pretty much on the mark.



I don't listen to any news VC. 

But... Green new deal anyone?


----------



## Value Collector (16 July 2019)

wayneL said:


> But... Green new deal anyone?




What was wrong with the green new deal? Did you read it, or did you just listen to the opinions of the right wing folks?


----------



## moXJO (16 July 2019)

Value Collector said:


> What was wrong with the green new deal? Did you read it, or did you just listen to the opinions of the right wing folks?



Did you run the figures on changing every building.


----------



## wayneL (16 July 2019)

Value Collector said:


> What was wrong with the green new deal? Did you read it, or did you just listen to the opinions of the right wing folks?



That's fairly obnoxious VC, you don't have to be an @sshole all the time mate.

But for your perusal:

https://www.forbes.com/sites/milton...new-deal-and-the-cost-of-virtue/#43a9f73f3dec


----------



## SirRumpole (16 July 2019)

wayneL said:


> That's fairly obnoxious VC, you don't have to be an @sshole all the time mate.
> 
> But for your perusal:
> 
> https://www.forbes.com/sites/milton...new-deal-and-the-cost-of-virtue/#43a9f73f3dec




Very brave, but that is what we said about Labor's policies and look where it got them.

There seems to be a trend in a number of countries for politicians to get out of the people's faces.

I personally think that leadership is needed because the private sector just thinks about itself, but "progressiveness" shouldn't be pushed too hard these days in case it turns the sheeple off.


----------



## Value Collector (16 July 2019)

wayneL said:


> That's fairly obnoxious VC, you don't have to be an @sshole all the time mate.
> 
> But for your perusal:
> 
> https://www.forbes.com/sites/milton...new-deal-and-the-cost-of-virtue/#43a9f73f3dec




I wasn’t trying to be obnoxious, I was just actually wondering if you read it.

It’s only 14 pages, after I read it I can’t believe people are actually upset with it, that’s why I asked.

I can understand you would be upset if you had only heard haters and climate change deniers etc talk about it.


----------



## Value Collector (16 July 2019)

moXJO said:


> Did you run the figures on changing every building.




Dude, it’s a road map of what needs to be done, if the country is to get to zero emissions, it doesn’t lock anything in, it’s basically a list of jobs that need the country needs to start working on over time.


----------



## moXJO (16 July 2019)

Value Collector said:


> Dude, it’s a road map of what needs to be done, if the country is to get to zero emissions, it doesn’t lock anything in, it’s basically a list of jobs that need the country needs to start working on over time.



I understand the sentiment. But it was never going to happen.


----------



## Value Collector (16 July 2019)

moXJO said:


> I understand the sentiment. But it was never going to happen.




It surely will happen, but they are multigenerational type goals.


----------



## Value Collector (16 July 2019)

Here is John Oliver’s Take on the green new deal.

He is always good for few laughs.


----------



## sptrawler (23 July 2019)

SirRumpole said:


> Discretionary spending is being eaten away by increases in prices for essentials, power, gas, water, council rates, rents, health insurance, medicines, state government charges and the like.
> 
> So on a non increasing income once you pay that stuff off, there is very little else to spend on what companies produce.
> 
> On Q&A last night the only person who made any sense was the Centre Alliance Senator Rex Patrick, saying basically gas prices are killing the economy. Dead right and the government has to do something about it.



One of your older posts Rumpy, but you were spot on.

https://www.smh.com.au/business/the...-about-200pc-in-20-years-20190722-p529in.html

From the article:
_Since 2000, while the CPI has risen 57 per cent, the cost of hospital and medical services are up 195 per cent, preschool and primary education has increased almost 160 per cent while the cost of electricity has galloped ahead by 194 per cent.


At the other end of the scale, the cost of clothing and footwear is down 10 per cent and furniture prices have risen only 10 per cent.

Against this wages have gone up 78 per cent over this period.

Loading
Thus it is becoming increasingly difficult for many Australians to retain their standard of living or increase their savings_ .


----------



## Smurf1976 (23 July 2019)

sptrawler said:


> From the article:
> _Since 2000, while the CPI has risen 57 per cent, the cost of hospital and medical services are up 195 per cent, preschool and primary education has increased almost 160 per cent while the cost of electricity has galloped ahead by 194 per cent._
> 
> _At the other end of the scale, the cost of clothing and footwear is down 10 per cent and furniture prices have risen only 10 per cent._




A big problem there is that broadly speaking, the ability to reduce expenditure so as to manage personal finances is being eroded.

In a typical household situation the option to not buy new furniture is there and someone could delay that for a decade even. Likewise they can keep wearing their clothes until they're really worn out, they can keep watching their old TV and they can drive an old car and so on if they need to save money.

Trouble is, all those sort of things have become cheaper or at least increased minimally versus the large increases in essential costs. Education isn't optional, same with anything medical and beyond a reasonable extent of efficiency utilities are also a necessity and of course housing most certainly is.

So the minimum costs to live are going up faster than the average, thus seriously squeezing those on a below average income or who want to cut expenses in order to build up savings etc. 

As "essential" costs gobble up an increasing portion of disposable income, slowly but surely the "discretionary" sector gets wiped out.


----------



## qldfrog (23 July 2019)

And i would add insurances and rego, rates, water bills especially the mandatory part of it: i pay 1k a year with 0 use and no tap or toilet in a warehouse.this is Australia ...
Ir is not an easy place to scale the social ladder, the perfect socialism dream, slug the rich,feed the idle, ensure the lower class stay put and our rulers benefit at the next election
Perfect recipe for a local Trump in my opinion, explaining Labour last loss as well
You need a social ladder in a country
Even China has one


----------



## SirRumpole (23 July 2019)

Eight out of 10 jobs created in the last 12 months have been in the public sector.

So much for a strong economy and business confidence.

https://www.abc.net.au/news/2019-07-23/jobs-growth-dominated-by-public-sector/11334294


----------



## qldfrog (23 July 2019)

And most probably just an extra charge on the country and on the remaining private businesses, a satanic loop...
There is no way these figures could be a reasonable expansion due to a growth of the population


----------



## Value Collector (23 July 2019)

SirRumpole said:


> Eight out of 10 jobs created in the last 12 months have been in the public sector.
> 
> So much for a strong economy and business confidence.
> 
> https://www.abc.net.au/news/2019-07-23/jobs-growth-dominated-by-public-sector/11334294




Job creation is a poor metric from which to judge the economy.

It should be judged on the total amount of goods and services being produced, distributed and consumed.

If you judge based on job creation, you would have to say that the USA’s agricultural sector has not grown in 200 years.

Because today there is pretty much the same number of people employed on farms as there was in 1819 when 80% of the population worked on farms.

But today less than 1% of the USA work on farms but they feed a population almost 100 times the size they used to.


----------



## SirRumpole (23 July 2019)

Value Collector said:


> Job creation is a poor metric from which to judge the economy.
> 
> It should be judged on the total amount of goods and services being produced, distributed and consumed.
> 
> ...




The unemployment rate, as flawed as it is, along with the under employment rate are reasonable metrics to measure the economy.

Say we had a highly mechanised mining and agriculture industry (which we do ), exporting lots of stuff overseas, but an unemployment rate of 10%, would the economy be going well ? 

Consumer consumption in this country is pretty weak so people are just not buying as much stuff as they used to so that reflects the state of the overall economy.


----------



## Value Collector (23 July 2019)

SirRumpole said:


> The unemployment rate, as flawed as it is, along with the under employment rate are reasonable metrics to measure the economy.
> 
> Say we had a highly mechanised mining and agriculture industry (which we do ), exporting lots of stuff overseas, but an unemployment rate of 10%, would the economy be going well ?
> 
> Consumer consumption in this country is pretty weak so people are just not buying as much stuff as they used to so that reflects the state of the overall economy.




Think of it this way.

Let’s say we had almost total mechanization across all industries, and we produced 3 times the amount of product and services we did today.

 But we had 9o% unemployment, would the economy be going well?

I say hell yes.

At the end of the day, the real judge is how much is being produced and consumed in real terms.

I mean back in 2001 when I had to pay $89 per month for my mobile plan that included nothing, was the economy some how more productive than it is today when I only pay $30 per month but get unlimited calls and texts, 300 mins international and 30 gig of data.

The fact the price has reduced and the services increased is a sign of strength not weakness.


----------



## SirRumpole (23 July 2019)

Value Collector said:


> But we had 9o% unemployment, would the economy be going well?
> 
> I say hell yes.
> 
> At the end of the day, the real judge is how much is being produced and consumed in real terms.




Unemployed people don't tend to consume a lot on NewStart.


----------



## Value Collector (23 July 2019)

SirRumpole said:


> Unemployed people don't tend to consume a lot on NewStart.




But they will consume a lot more than an unemployed person in the past.

You can bet almost every person on new start has a mobile, and they make calls a lot more frequently than I did back in 2001 when I was paying  30 cents per 30 seconds, and $89 per month for that privilege.

also the $1 menu a McDonald’s and others like it has items cheaper than I would have had to pay in 2001 etc etc.

Flights are cheaper, cars are cheaper, renting movies is cheaper, internet is cheaper, interest rates are cheaper. etc etc

Across the board more things are being produced and consumed, and thats the ultimate point of an economy.

Think about it, would you want higher employment even if it meant lower production?


----------



## Smurf1976 (23 July 2019)

Value Collector said:


> But we had 9o% unemployment, would the economy be going well?
> 
> I say hell yes.



The economy as such might be going well but it would not be at all well serving the interests of the population, at least not in the absence of truly massive redistribution in the form of welfare to the 90% who are unemployed in that example.

The trains running on time is not a worthwhile achievement if it's done by means of preventing passengers from boarding them. Etc.


----------



## qldfrog (24 July 2019)

SirRumpole said:


> Unemployed people don't tend to consume a lot on NewStart.



So do you separate economy and overall debt?
In that case easy, we can have a booming economy by just giving everyone 100k...
A bit like Trump did via tax cut..
France spent the last 50y doing relance par la consommation 
Aka boost economy by giving people money..minimal wage, welfare etc
You just end up with a bankrupt country
No, we are not in a great economy, yes newstart is low but we can not afford to go deeper on debt
One point seemed missing is that nowadays, when you boost consumption, you mostly increase wealth in china or overseas
Your cheap ham comes from europe, your canned vegies from Thailand or SA, your phone....
How much of that extra 100buck in welfare will stay here?
Most will go to a landlord pushing RE price rest overseas with black market cigarettes and drugs
Pushing a bit but
And every month, one billion in interest only on our federal debt..that could build a few hospitals...but it is true not buy many submarines...


----------



## Value Collector (24 July 2019)

Smurf1976 said:


> The economy as such might be going well but it would not be at all well serving the interests of the population, at least not in the absence of truly massive redistribution in the form of welfare to the 90% who are unemployed in that example.
> 
> The trains running on time is not a worthwhile achievement if it's done by means of preventing passengers from boarding them. Etc.




All rich families will squabble about exactly how he pie gets cut up, that’s just politics.

But even our current system would see a good rise in the the general standard of living, as prices dropped from the increase in efficiency etc.


----------



## SirRumpole (24 July 2019)

Smurf1976 said:


> The trains running on time is not a worthwhile achievement if it's done by means of preventing passengers from boarding them. Etc.




Yes Minister comes to mind with the hospital with no patients being so efficient compared to the ones that actually heal people...


----------



## Humid (24 July 2019)

Value Collector said:


> Job creation is a poor metric from which to judge the economy.
> 
> It should be judged on the total amount of goods and services being produced, distributed and consumed.
> 
> ...




Jesus if that’s street level spare me the full analysis


----------



## basilio (29 July 2019)

Challenging insight into  the world economy and in particular unrealistic stock market levels

*Four flashpoints that may unsettle booming stock markets in the coming year*

https://www.abc.net.au/news/2019-07...t-may-unsettle-booming-stock-markets/11354772


----------



## qldfrog (30 July 2019)

https://www.news.com.au/finance/wor...a/news-story/5b777f661b50354498416bed24922d84
Interesting but not exactly rosy facts, not that I'm surprise


----------



## moXJO (31 July 2019)

People seem to be spending a bit on tradies the last couple of weeks


----------



## Humid (31 July 2019)

https://www.smh.com.au/business/the...n-of-100-000-jobs-losses-20190730-p52c4v.html


----------



## jbocker (31 July 2019)

Perth. 3 Hrs Free parking in the CBD on weekends. Locate the homeless into day shelters to improve the shopping appeal in the city.
These are small attempts to draw the shoppers onto the streets. Street level indicators on how tough it must be for the shop owners


----------



## IFocus (1 August 2019)

Talking to a solar salesman the other day filling in time waiting for the wife at local shopping centre (deep south.....Mandurah) 40 years of selling he said worst he has ever seen by far.


----------



## SirRumpole (1 August 2019)

Of course the fact that negative gearing won't change should have fixed this issue, right Scott ?


----------



## Value Collector (1 August 2019)

IFocus said:


> Talking to a solar salesman the other day filling in time waiting for the wife at local shopping centre (deep south.....Mandurah) 40 years of selling he said worst he has ever seen by far.



Means it’s probally the best time for buying.

But I guess it depends what you are selling. Disney movie studios for example is breaking records, Fortescue Iron ore is killing it etc etc, so my portfolio is doing well.


----------



## IFocus (1 August 2019)

Value Collector said:


> Means it’s probally the best time for buying.




Agree, house prices are get hammered locally but with stagnate wages, high debt levels I do wonder how those less well of are going to fare.




Value Collector said:


> But I guess it depends what you are selling. Disney movie studios for example is breaking records, Fortescue Iron ore is killing it etc etc, so my portfolio is doing well.





$120 iron ore pricing certainly has given the local producers a boost but i do note small head and shoulder patterns starting to form in their stock prices.


----------



## Value Collector (1 August 2019)

IFocus said:


> $120 iron ore pricing certainly has given the local producers a boost but i do note small head and shoulder patterns starting to form in their stock prices.




I watch profits and dividends rolling in, not charts.


----------



## IFocus (1 August 2019)

Value Collector said:


> I watch profits and dividends rolling in, not charts.




Long may it continue VC


----------



## moXJO (1 August 2019)

IFocus said:


> Talking to a solar salesman the other day filling in time waiting for the wife at local shopping centre (deep south.....Mandurah) 40 years of selling he said worst he has ever seen by far.



Opposite here. Guys are flat out. Was talking to him on Monday.


----------



## moXJO (1 August 2019)

Humid said:


> https://www.smh.com.au/business/the...n-of-100-000-jobs-losses-20190730-p52c4v.html




A month ago I was all doom. But suppliers and trades have all been saying that the work has come flooding in the last few weeks (nsw)


----------



## sptrawler (1 August 2019)

SirRumpole said:


> Of course the fact that negative gearing won't change should have fixed this issue, right Scott ?



I really would have loved to have seen the carnage, if the negative gearing changes had come in, or are you saying it would have been better?


----------



## SirRumpole (1 August 2019)

sptrawler said:


> I really would have loved to have seen the carnage, if the negative gearing changes had come in, or are you saying it would have been better?




I doubt if it would have made much difference (as the Treasury said), except the government would be $8 billion a year better off.


----------



## SirRumpole (1 August 2019)

More signs of the falling property market.

Developers going broke, the canaries in the mine ?

https://www.abc.net.au/news/2019-08...cks-showing-as-major-developer-falls/11374464


----------



## sptrawler (1 August 2019)

SirRumpole said:


> I doubt if it would have made much difference (as the Treasury said), except the government would be $8 billion a year better off.



Obviously most of the voting public didn't agree.
Also all the property reports, since the election, mention the improved sentiment since the policy was removed.


----------



## SirRumpole (1 August 2019)

sptrawler said:


> Obviously most of the voting public didn't agree.
> Also all the property reports, since the election, mention the improved sentiment since the policy was removed.




I don't see improved sentiment when building companies are going broke.


----------



## satanoperca (1 August 2019)

sptrawler said:


> Obviously most of the voting public didn't agree.
> Also all the property reports, since the election, mention the improved sentiment since the policy was removed.



The public are dumb, but regardless, you can have your sentiment, figures are figures and with the latest core logic report with Perth down over 20% from peak in 2014, sentiment makes no f---king difference.

I am with Sir on this, when developers fall over in the tune of half a billion dollars and more to come, the writing is on the wall, just taking some time for people to see it.

I expect Perth to go down at least another 10-15% in the next 3 years and the majors to follow.

As for the election, have you looked at what these dumb arse have been adding to the national debt.


----------



## sptrawler (1 August 2019)

SirRumpole said:


> I don't see improved sentiment when building companies are going broke.



Well Labor's policies weren't going to change that, but they would have accelerated the slide on the established front, which one would assume would have had a further clamping effect on consumer spending.


----------



## Klogg (1 August 2019)

satanoperca said:


> As for the election, have you looked at what these dumb arse have been adding to the national debt.




They're running a budget surplus AND a current account surplus. So nothing since the election.


----------



## satanoperca (1 August 2019)

Please
How much debt is Australia 2019?
This would be *Australia's* eleventh consecutive budget deficit. The 2017 budget forecast government spending to be in surplus in the 2020/21 fiscal year, while the 2018 budget forecast a surplus of $2.2 billion in *2019*/20. The government's *debt*level is forecast to be $629 billion in *2019*/20.


----------



## moXJO (1 August 2019)

satanoperca said:


> Please
> How much debt is Australia 2019?
> This would be *Australia's* eleventh consecutive budget deficit. The 2017 budget forecast government spending to be in surplus in the 2020/21 fiscal year, while the 2018 budget forecast a surplus of $2.2 billion in *2019*/20. The government's *debt*level is forecast to be $629 billion in *2019*/20.



Who kicked that ball rolling with various schemes


----------



## moXJO (1 August 2019)

Iron ore is booming. Is none of that translating to economic benefits in WA?


----------



## sptrawler (1 August 2019)

moXJO said:


> Iron ore is booming. Is none of that translating to economic benefits in WA?



Not really, the last boom built and installed most of the high labour content infrastructure, this one is only moving more ore.
The crushing, rail, material handling and port facilities are all done.


----------



## Value Collector (1 August 2019)

sptrawler said:


> this one is only moving more ore.




And funding enormous dividends and share buybacks.


----------



## sptrawler (1 August 2019)

Value Collector said:


> And funding enormous dividends and share buybacks.



That's true, but I think the reference was regarding increased employment and in that respect it isn't having the same impact as the previous boom.
Also there is a strong impetus in mining to automation, which has its good and bad points.
But as you say the more raw materials we move, the more dividends we receive, it just appears somewhat short sighted and inwardly focused to me.


----------



## sptrawler (1 August 2019)

satanoperca said:


> Please
> How much debt is Australia 2019?
> This would be *Australia's* eleventh consecutive budget deficit. The 2017 budget forecast government spending to be in surplus in the 2020/21 fiscal year, while the 2018 budget forecast a surplus of $2.2 billion in *2019*/20. The government's *debt*level is forecast to be $629 billion in *2019*/20.



If we couldn't run a budget surplus through the biggest mining boom in history, I can't understand why everyone is surprised it is difficult now, I thought fiscal nous would be rampant on an investment forum.


----------



## Value Collector (2 August 2019)

sptrawler said:


> That's true, but I think the reference was regarding increased employment and in that respect it isn't having the same impact as the previous boom.
> Also there is a strong impetus in mining to automation, which has its good and bad points.
> But as you say the more raw materials we move, the more dividends we receive, it just appears somewhat short sighted and inwardly focused to me.




I don’t know, currently my huge FMG dividend has funded a decent renovation of 2 properties I own, including solar panels, patios, kitchens, bathrooms, painting, etc etc.

Although, the work is happening on the other side of the country, so wouldn’t be picked up on any mining related numbers, but the money is definitely flowing through the economy.


----------



## PZ99 (2 August 2019)

sptrawler said:


> I really would have loved to have seen the carnage, if the negative gearing changes had come in, or are you saying it would have been better?



Given the Govts' partial NG crackdown we might get a chance to find out 

The Morrison government has surprised the property industry by shifting on its iron-clad election pledge not to change negative gearing rules, introducing a $50 million plan to end tax deductions related to vacant land.  
New legislation to deny deductions for any losses or outgoings incurred through undeveloped land has been introduced to Parliament, backdated to July 1.

https://www.afr.com/politics/federa...se-negative-gearing-crackdown-20190731-p52cg8


----------



## SirRumpole (2 August 2019)

PZ99 said:


> Given the Govts' partial NG crackdown we might get a chance to find out
> 
> The Morrison government has surprised the property industry by shifting on its iron-clad election pledge not to change negative gearing rules, introducing a $50 million plan to end tax deductions related to vacant land.
> New legislation to deny deductions for any losses or outgoings incurred through undeveloped land has been introduced to Parliament, backdated to July 1.
> ...




It's a start...


----------



## Garpal Gumnut (2 August 2019)

I reckon anyone holding REITs needs their heads read. Sell them now.

Back in the 80’s the CBDs of many regional and subregional towns and cities lost tenants to shopping centres  a few kilometres away.

The CBDs have never recovered.

In the early 2000s mega shopping centres developed further out.

Now all three have been disrupted by online shopping. 

I am reminded of the medieval call “bring out yer dead” when I rarely visit shopping centres.

I’m calling a big sell on REIT’s with more than 20% of their assets in retail centres.

gg


----------



## Value Collector (2 August 2019)

Garpal Gumnut said:


> I reckon anyone holding REITs needs their heads read. Sell them now.
> 
> Back in the 80’s the CBDs of many regional and subregional towns and cities lost tenants to shopping centres  a few kilometres away.
> 
> ...




It depends on what properties are in the reits.

A portfolio of Neighborhood shopping centers with Coles and woolies as anchor tenants, with a bottle shop, dominoes pizza, doctors etc will perform quite well in my opinion.


----------



## moXJO (2 August 2019)

Everyone I'm talking to say sales are up. Local major post office worker said people are paying their year worth of rates in one hit. Something that doesn't usually happen. 

Maybe the tax deductions filtering through.


----------



## sptrawler (2 August 2019)

PZ99 said:


> Given the Govts' partial NG crackdown we might get a chance to find out
> 
> The Morrison government has surprised the property industry by shifting on its iron-clad election pledge not to change negative gearing rules, introducing a $50 million plan to end tax deductions related to vacant land.
> New legislation to deny deductions for any losses or outgoings incurred through undeveloped land has been introduced to Parliament, backdated to July 1.
> ...




At no stage did I say negative gearing was good, just that Labors suggested changes were terrible, as with the franking changes no degree of progressiveness. Just a sledge hammer to crack a walnut.
Labor actually come up with reasonable ideas, it is just their implementation and lack of finesse to the detail, that blows their feet off every time.IMO


----------



## basilio (3 August 2019)

The rolling out of AI in various industries is going to undermine employment.  Don't know how purchasing power will be kept up in an economy with rising  numbers of displaced and jobess people.

The big new players with AI seem to be supermarkets 

* Buy now, pay later: AI and the ‘red-light risk' for millions of Australian jobs *
‘Saving manpower will help them stay competitive and increase profits’: Toby Walsh says the rise of artificial intelligence in supermarkets is not good news for workers. Photograph: Bloomberg via Getty Images
Supermarkets are among the businesses forging ahead with new technology, and observers warn that cutting jobs is a prime motive 
https://www.theguardian.com/austral...ed-light-risk-for-millions-of-australian-jobs


----------



## SirRumpole (3 August 2019)

basilio said:


> The rolling out of AI in various industries is going to undermine employment.  Don't know how purchasing power will be kept up in an economy with rising  numbers of displaced and jobess people.
> 
> The big new players with AI seem to be supermarkets
> 
> ...




How many bank jobs have been taken and will be taken by ATM's ? Internet commerce ?

It's not something that can be stopped I'm afraid. There is no law against not creating jobs so companies will do it , encouraged by instant asset write-offs and the freedom of not having to deal with employees.

You can't underpay a machine.


----------



## sptrawler (3 August 2019)

SirRumpole said:


> How many bank jobs have been taken and will be taken by ATM's ? Internet commerce ?
> 
> It's not something that can be stopped I'm afraid. There is no law against not creating jobs so companies will do it , encouraged by instant asset write-offs and the freedom of not having to deal with employees.
> 
> You can't underpay a machine.



It also doesn't take holidays, sickies, need superannuation payments, doesn't go to the dunny or out for a smoke, doesn't sexually harass anyone, doesn't complain, doesn't have to go home to sleep, just does the job. 
What I always find funny, is when you go into a bank to withdraw money and the teller says "why don't you use the ATM"?


----------



## jbocker (3 August 2019)

Maybe we will need AI in the unemployment system.


----------



## jbocker (3 August 2019)

Self Serve in the supermarket is one I avoid. If I make a mistake in scanning the items then I become responsible and liable for potential theft accusation. If the check out person does it I am not liable. They also pack the bags, and even communicate.


----------



## Value Collector (3 August 2019)

sptrawler said:


> It also doesn't take holidays, sickies, need superannuation payments, doesn't go to the dunny or out for a smoke, doesn't sexually harass anyone, doesn't complain, doesn't have to go home to sleep, just does the job.




That’s actually one of the reasons I like Disney.

Mickey Mouse and the rest of the Gang don’t have agents lobbying for pay rises, and unlike other studios human stars, Mickey isn’t at risk of going rogue or going to rehab, hahaha.

He does exactly what Disney wants, when they want and he never complains about it.


----------



## jbocker (4 August 2019)

Value Collector said:


> That’s actually one of the reasons I like Disney.
> 
> Mickey Mouse and the rest of the Gang don’t have agents lobbying for pay rises, and unlike other studios human stars, Mickey isn’t at risk of going rogue or going to rehab, hahaha.
> 
> He does exactly what Disney wants, when they want and he never complains about it.




Ohhh yes they do have agents, special agents... called cartoonists.
And there is bickering all the time, Elmer Fudd is always gonna blow the crap out of Wabbit, Coyote going to do the Road Runner in, Donald Duck is always whinging. Do a search on Mickey Mouse Drunk. He has had a few issues!!
That's NOT all Folks


----------



## Smurf1976 (4 August 2019)

sptrawler said:


> What I always find funny, is when you go into a bank to withdraw money and the teller says "why don't you use the ATM"?



Almost a year since I moved states and I still don't know where the nearest branch of the bank I use is located.

There has simply been no reason to go there so I've had no cause to find out where it is.


----------



## qldfrog (4 August 2019)

I agree, in day to day operations, no need for a branch unless an antique organisation like my council requires a bank cheque..
But i had coffee with a premier representative
Banks need to move to a network of marketing customer contacts to offer personalised services, the rest can be done on the internet, and it is


----------



## ducati916 (4 August 2019)

Value Collector said:


> Think of it this way.
> 
> Let’s say we had almost total mechanization across all industries, and we produced 3 times the amount of product and services we did today.
> 
> ...





The superficial analysis leads to an error in attribution in this example.

We have a company that increases its services and concurrently drops its prices. What can actually be held?

The factors of production:
i. Land; and
ii. Labour; and
iii. Capital

The increase in land will [likely] be marginal and can therefore be discounted for this analysis. As can labour, given that in the example 90% unemployment is the situation.

Therefore the increase in services and fall in price will be inferred from an increase of capital invested into technology.

We are assuming that the company is profitable. Which of course may not actually be the case. If it is, then the following must apply.

We know that at "Y" [old prices] sales volume will be lower than at "X" [new sales volume] because to be profitable at "X", a greater volume [at a lower price] must be sold than at "Y". Therefore we can conclude the price is elastic.

Where did the new capital [for investment into technology] originate?

i. Bank loans; or
ii. Selling debt instruments into market; or
iii. Selling common stock; or
iv. Retained earnings; or
v. New partners supplying buy in capital.

With a 90% unemployment rate, [ii, iii, v] all become unlikely. This leaves [i and iv].

In a true banking system where banks do not expand the money supply, the ability to provide investment capital resides in the volume of savings held on time deposit.

The 90% unemployment rate depends on:

i. Voluntarily unemployed [retired, other] not seeking paid employment; or
ii. Seeking paid employment.

If [ii] then any savings are likely to be on demand deposit and low. 

Of course banks do not operate this way [although with a 90% unemployment rate I rather think they would] they operate on a fractional reserve model, thereby inflating the money supply and could provide the investment capital as a bank loan.

No issues if funded from retained earnings.

All of the factors of production have a cost. To be profitable, the consumer price must pay all the intermediate steps of production and the original factors, with a profit remaining.

Two issues arise:

i. With a 90% unemployment rate, it is highly unlikely the intermediate steps of production could be met; and

ii. With 90% unemployment, where does the money [exchange goods] originate to purchase the services offered?

On just this superficial analysis, [as so much more would need to be considered in an example that is so clearly wrong] the 90% unemployment rate, indicated as being acceptable if the production of goods and services expanded, is simply childish.

If we considered the other possibility, viz. that the 90% unemployed were unemployed by choice and had the capital to live off of via investments, the cost of capital would fall. The question would then be:

i. Is the return on investment [funds loaned] sufficient to sustain an unemployed lifestyle? The return on capital loaned, would need to be marginally higher than the cost of all goods/services consumed, to preserve the capital base.

In theory, it is possible if the area "A" [the area of 90% unemployed] invested in area "B, C, D, etc" that had a more normal employment distribution and a higher cost of capital.

On more practical terms however, in a place with 90% unemployment [for either reason] where will you get a cup of coffee, a meal served, medical or legal services? The whole argument is simply nonsense.

jog on
duc


----------



## Humid (5 August 2019)

Just drove past a Woolies servo with save 8c a litre sign up and they’re queuing up to get in there.
Most of the cars look like they would hold 50 litres dead empty


----------



## jbocker (5 August 2019)

Humid said:


> Just drove past a Woolies servo with save 8c a litre sign up and they’re queuing up to get in there.
> Most of the cars look like they would hold 50 litres dead empty




0.08x50 is $4. Is it worth it? People will queue for an hour too motor running. Then go into the servo shop and pay that for a coke. The state of economics at the servo level.


----------



## Smurf1976 (6 August 2019)

I know it does tend to start early these days but the extent of Christmas hype starting to emerge, when it's only early August, says something surely?

It sounds like a desperate attempt to get people spending?


----------



## PZ99 (6 August 2019)

I blame the weather - it's bloody hot


----------



## moXJO (6 August 2019)

China tanking our dollar.
Might bring in overseas money?


----------



## tinhat (6 August 2019)

Smurf1976 said:


> I know it does tend to start early these days but the extent of Christmas hype starting to emerge, when it's only early August, says something surely?
> 
> It sounds like a desperate attempt to get people spending?




Usually Christmas promotions don't precede Father's Day.


----------



## SirRumpole (8 August 2019)

"the hollowing out of the middle class".

Another reason why department stores are declining.

https://www.abc.net.au/news/2019-08-08/department-store-profits-hit-as-middle-class-shrinks/11394038


----------



## qldfrog (9 August 2019)

https://www.afr.com/companies/minin...s-australian-investment-plans-20190809-p52ff0
Yeap more dirt digging, less added value


----------



## sptrawler (9 August 2019)

qldfrog said:


> https://www.afr.com/companies/minin...s-australian-investment-plans-20190809-p52ff0
> Yeap more dirt digging, less added value



They will probably announce soon, the building of a processing plant overseas, or a contract to supply an overseas third party processor with raw material.
Who's cynical.


----------



## jbocker (9 August 2019)

qldfrog said:


> https://www.afr.com/companies/minin...s-australian-investment-plans-20190809-p52ff0
> Yeap more dirt digging, less added value



Lithium becomes Slothium?


----------



## sptrawler (9 August 2019)

jbocker said:


> Lithium becomes Slothium?



The price has been driven by expected demand when? Maybe it has got a tad ahead of itself.


----------



## basilio (9 August 2019)

More sobering news from the Reserve Bank. They are prepared to do whatever it takes to keep the economy going.

There is a particularly scary observation at the end of the story on their concerns over the Chinese banking system.  Tied in with the US trade war on China there is much to think about.

*Reserve Bank 'prepared to do unconventional things' as economic outlook worsens*
https://www.abc.net.au/news/2019-08-09/reserve-bank-cuts-economic-forecasts-again/11399576


----------



## sptrawler (9 August 2019)

basilio said:


> More sobering news from the Reserve Bank. They are prepared to do whatever it takes to keep the economy going.
> 
> There is a particularly scary observation at the end of the story on their concerns over the Chinese banking system.  Tied in with the US trade war on China there is much to think about.
> 
> ...



These are the times you wish you had a  public service defined benefit pension, no stress the taxpayer picks it up, jeez I would go back to work, if they re introduced them. Lol


----------



## moXJO (10 August 2019)

Well at least theres this:

"national trade surplus is now at a record $8 billion, with exports climbing 1 per cent from May to June, while imports fell 4 per cent."

Gives Australia the opportunity to sell more crap overseas while our dollar tanks.


----------



## sptrawler (10 August 2019)

The reserve bank saying they are prepared to take interest rates to 0%, IMO will put a rocket under the ASX, people in Aust with the cost of living can't afford 0% growth on their money.
Even 2-3% is a worrying situation for retirees, the next 6 months will be very interesting.


----------



## SirRumpole (13 August 2019)

As if we didn't know. Infrastructure projects not keeping up with population growth.

I wonder if anyone has heard the phrase "if you are in a hole, stop digging", ie slow down immigration until the infrastructure catches up perhaps ?

https://www.abc.net.au/news/2019-08...ys-roads-and-transport-must-catch-up/11407114


----------



## Humid (15 August 2019)

SirRumpole said:


> As if we didn't know. Infrastructure projects not keeping up with population growth.
> 
> I wonder if anyone has heard the phrase "if you are in a hole, stop digging", ie slow down immigration until the infrastructure catches up perhaps ?
> 
> https://www.abc.net.au/news/2019-08...ys-roads-and-transport-must-catch-up/11407114




But how are they going to prop up housing if they cut immigration?
Cut the arse out of TAFE and wonder why the lack of skills and the need to import them.
I don’t know one apprentice!


----------



## SirRumpole (15 August 2019)

Humid said:


> But how are they going to prop up housing if they cut immigration?




With 5%+ unemployment if those without a job had a job they could afford to buy a house or contribute to the rental market.


----------



## Humid (15 August 2019)

SirRumpole said:


> With 5%+ unemployment if those without a job had a job they could afford to buy a house or contribute to the rental market.




I’ll raise you another 5+with the underemployed 
Employment figures are farcical


----------



## SirRumpole (15 August 2019)

Humid said:


> I’ll raise you another 5+with the underemployed
> Employment figures are farcical




Yep, one hour a week of work and you are fully employed.

Right....


----------



## tinhat (15 August 2019)

SirRumpole said:


> As if we didn't know. Infrastructure projects not keeping up with population growth.
> 
> I wonder if anyone has heard the phrase "if you are in a hole, stop digging", ie slow down immigration until the infrastructure catches up perhaps ?
> 
> https://www.abc.net.au/news/2019-08...ys-roads-and-transport-must-catch-up/11407114




Or just euthenise the elderly.


----------



## basilio (15 August 2019)

tinhat said:


> Or just euthenise the elderly.



Wouldn't that be a bit a bit liberal mushy  soft hearted ?
Surely they could just go into despair and  starve slowly -  like those on Newstart perhaps . whatever for a darkness


----------



## SirRumpole (15 August 2019)

tinhat said:


> Or just euthenise the elderly.




Or sterilise the young ?


----------



## sptrawler (15 August 2019)

basilio said:


> Surely they could just go into despair and  starve slowly -  like those on Newstart perhaps . whatever for a darkness



Patiently waiting for their inheritance.


----------



## Gringotts Bank (15 August 2019)

The guy I mentioned earlier in the thread (the private banker) is still confident the fall is coming next year.  Apparently that's the consensus view among those he works with. Haven't spoken with the hairdresser in a while.

fwiw


----------



## Smurf1976 (15 August 2019)

I’m organising various works (trades etc) at the moment and in short, it’s much easier to get someone now than it was 6 months ago.

Seems to be much more enthusiasm to get work too - eg no problem getting quotes etc.


----------



## SirRumpole (15 August 2019)

Smurf1976 said:


> I’m organising various works (trades etc) at the moment and in short, it’s much easier to get someone now than it was 6 months ago.
> 
> Seems to be much more enthusiasm to get work too - eg no problem getting quotes etc.




Would you say the workers are dinky-di or mainly foreign ?


----------



## sptrawler (15 August 2019)

Smurf1976 said:


> I’m organising various works (trades etc) at the moment and in short, it’s much easier to get someone now than it was 6 months ago.
> 
> Seems to be much more enthusiasm to get work too - eg no problem getting quotes etc.



The self employed tradies in W.A are hurting, a glazier I know, who was 'killing the pig' 5 years ago, is now trying to off load property to keep his head above water.
The car yards are deserted and small shops are closing, it isn't looking good, but I think as Grino says we have a way to go yet.
There is still a long way to go down over East.IMO


----------



## Smurf1976 (15 August 2019)

If the population is growing but there are fewer people flying to the largest city then that suggests things aren't all rosy:

https://www.smh.com.au/business/com...s-australia-china-dry-up-20190815-p52h8t.html



> Domestic passenger numbers fell by 1.5 per cent, or 200,000 to 13.3 million


----------



## Smurf1976 (15 August 2019)

SirRumpole said:


> Would you say the workers are dinky-di or mainly foreign ?




I haven't looked into it closely but I haven't consciously noted anyone who didn't seem to be a permanent resident of Australia.


----------



## SirRumpole (15 August 2019)

Smurf1976 said:


> I haven't looked into it closely but I haven't consciously noted anyone who didn't seem to be a permanent resident of Australia.




Good.


----------



## tinhat (15 August 2019)

SirRumpole said:


> Or sterilise the young ?




Demographics is king.


----------



## basilio (15 August 2019)

tinhat said:


> Demographics is king.




Or maybe there are some other factors that could dent our inalienable right to make more money ?
Check this out and consider what your investment strategies for the next 10-20 years could look like.

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*Climate Change: The Facts*
ABCDOCUMENTARY
Sir David Attenborough looks at a planet on the verge of climate catastrophe. With intimate stories of people's lives affected by climate change, the documentary takes a look at one of the greatest challenges we face today.
https://iview.abc.net.au/show/climate-change-the-facts/video/ZW2018A001S00


----------



## qldfrog (15 August 2019)

Today, virgin was increasing luggage allowance for parents with babies
For me that says empty Virgin planes
And Virgin is not champagne class
So Australia is hurting.less interstate trip for afl match and concerts
Get ready for cheap jetski and quad soon
And my house is not yet in the market..talk about timing


----------



## Tyler Durden (21 August 2019)

Went to Eastwood tonight to visit an elderly woman in her home business, and she told me that a lot of shops in that area were closing down. Afterwards I went to eat in the small Taiwan street food market and noticed only about half of the restaurants were open. I remember this was quite a lively place a few years ago, but things seem to have changed.


----------



## sptrawler (21 August 2019)

Tyler Durden said:


> Went to Eastwood tonight to visit an elderly woman in her home business, and she told me that a lot of shops in that area were closing down. Afterwards I went to eat in the small Taiwan street food market and noticed only about half of the restaurants were open. I remember this was quite a lively place a few years ago, but things seem to have changed.



Sydney must be slowing down? It needed to it has been going gang busters, over the last few years.


----------



## moXJO (22 August 2019)

I'm getting mixed signals. But its still looking like a slow down. Some areas are really struggling  (retail). 

The government being quiet on the issue isn't really helping. Do they have a plan? ? ? 
I understand keeping politics out of the news. But going to far and releasing nothing looks worse.


----------



## sptrawler (22 August 2019)

moXJO said:


> I'm getting mixed signals. But its still looking like a slow down. Some areas are really struggling  (retail).
> 
> The government being quiet on the issue isn't really helping. Do they have a plan? ? ?
> I understand keeping politics out of the news. But going to far and releasing nothing looks worse.




Hopefully the Government is working on a plan, in the past Governments seemed to have rushed out answers and they turned out to be a mess, probably because of the 24/7 news cycle these days.
IMO  the one thing in Australia's favour, is the fact we haven't got into the money printing yet, that leaves a lot of wriggle room with regard infrastructure and stimulus spending. 
Also being a resource based economy, when they do start the money printing, our currency should drop and make our 'stuff' cheaper on the World market.

As far as Perth goes, I'm seeing a lot of the houses that have been on the market for over 12 months are now selling, those are actual houses I ride my bike past.
But the shops don't seem to be any busier, only food outlets and supermarkets appear busy, if they sell coffee and fast food they appear to be doing o.k.
Just my opinion.


----------



## moXJO (22 August 2019)

sptrawler said:


> Hopefully the Government is working on a plan, in the past Governments seemed to have rushed out answers and they turned out to be a mess, probably because of the 24/7 news cycle these days.
> IMO  the one thing in Australia's favour, is the fact we haven't got into the money printing yet, that leaves a lot of wriggle room with regard infrastructure and stimulus spending.
> Also being a resource based economy, when they do start the money printing, our currency should drop and make our 'stuff' cheaper on the World market.
> 
> ...



And this is happening:
*"The largest goods and services surplus on record at $13.6 billion, helped decrease Australia's current account deficit in seasonally adjusted terms by $3.4 billion to $2.9 billion in the March quarter 2019, according to latest information released by theAustralian Bureau of Statistics (ABS)*."
Mainly due to commodities,  maybe an upside for WA.


----------



## sptrawler (22 August 2019)

moXJO said:


> And this is happening:
> *"The largest goods and services surplus on record at $13.6 billion, helped decrease Australia's current account deficit in seasonally adjusted terms by $3.4 billion to $2.9 billion in the March quarter 2019, according to latest information released by theAustralian Bureau of Statistics (ABS)*."
> Mainly due to commodities,  maybe an upside for WA.



In my opinion it isn't as bad as the media make out, no point in throwing money around until it is absolutely necessary, nothing worse than shooting all the bullets then the tiger walks around the corner and you have nothing left.
At the moment we seem to be treading water, but we aren't going under, my gut feeling is we might just get through this. Our economy lags the rest of the Western World by a few years, we are going down as they are coming up, so hopefully we start and see a turn around.
After the GFC and the money printing, it was never going to be a smooth recovery.
Just my opinion.


----------



## satanoperca (22 August 2019)

SP, your commentary is 100% appreciated, however
Are you kidding me, our economy must go through a reset and the general population has no f---king idea of what hardship is.
Australia developed and grew through hard work, I fail to see this today, we still believe we are the lucky country and for all extends we are. But not reset, no recession in 30 years, we are all on borrowed time, we have become complacent as a nation, our leaders have failed us. ....
Maybe not our leaders, they are controlled by our media, which is interned controlled by the people, who has become complacent in understanding the world we all live in, the global world.


----------



## moXJO (22 August 2019)

satanoperca said:


> Are you kidding me, our economy must go through a reset and the general population has no f---king idea of what hardship is.
> Australia developed and grew through hard work, I fail to see this today, we still believe we are the lucky country and for all extends we are. But not reset, no recession in 30 years, we are all on borrowed time, we have become complacent as a nation, our leaders have failed us. ....




Look this is my thinking 100%.
Prices are to high for everything. Workers are spoilt, bosses want to charge too much etc.
But I thought the same thing back in 2007 as well. 

All indicators point to armageddon. But how long will it hold up? 
12 years is a long time if I had of sat and waited for opportunities. 
I'd rather keep a finger on the pulse.


----------



## Smurf1976 (28 August 2019)

https://www.theage.com.au/business/...-tries-to-revive-airline-20190828-p52lkc.html

So Virgin is losing serious money and Qantas, whilst still profitable, is making less profit than it was previously.

Given that between them the two companies hold a duopoly over most domestic aviation routes in Australia, this would seem to suggest that the underlying demand for travel isn't going too well.


----------



## SirRumpole (28 August 2019)

Smurf1976 said:


> https://www.theage.com.au/business/...-tries-to-revive-airline-20190828-p52lkc.html
> 
> So Virgin is losing serious money and Qantas, whilst still profitable, is making less profit than it was previously.
> 
> Given that between them the two companies hold a duopoly over most domestic aviation routes in Australia, this would seem to suggest that the underlying demand for travel isn't going too well.




Just another indicator of a tanking economy I'm afraid.


----------



## sptrawler (28 August 2019)

Smurf1976 said:


> https://www.theage.com.au/business/...-tries-to-revive-airline-20190828-p52lkc.html
> 
> So Virgin is losing serious money and Qantas, whilst still profitable, is making less profit than it was previously.
> 
> Given that between them the two companies hold a duopoly over most domestic aviation routes in Australia, this would seem to suggest that the underlying demand for travel isn't going too well.



I think it is a bit like every other big business, with big overheads trying to eke out profits from a relatively small population, it is hard as the mobile phone industry is finding out.
Coles and Woolies, are finding it tough, especially with the new entrants.
Maybe Australia can only support one major airline?, plenty of others in this space, have gone under in the past.


----------



## SirRumpole (28 August 2019)

sptrawler said:


> Maybe Australia can only support one major airline?, plenty of others in this space, have gone under in the past.




True, however the *perception* of choice has to be maintained, thus JetStar, a subsidiary of Qantas but catering to a different market.


----------



## Smurf1976 (28 August 2019)

SirRumpole said:


> Just another indicator of a tanking economy I'm afraid.



That was my thinking.

In the Australian context the airlines in aggregate don't really have competition from an alternative means of transport. Anyone who's traveling interstate by road or rail in 2019 generally woudn't consider flying as an alternative since they're driving or on a train for the journey itself, not simply to get to the destination, or are towing a caravan or whatever. Likewise those who fly generally wouldn't consider a land based alternative unless there really was no choice.

That being so, the airlines in aggregate, and ultimately there's only two, would seem to be a reasonable proxy for business and leisure travel.

Now thinking of my own life and anywhere I've worked, if finances get tight then interstate / overseas travel tends to be one of the first things to come under serious scrutiny. In business it's often not absolutely essential, it's a nice to have but if there's a need to cut costs well then it's often not critical, and for consumers it almost never is.

Struggling airlines thus suggests business and consumers alike are tightening their belts.


----------



## sptrawler (28 August 2019)

When was the last time Virgin earned a profit? Things are definitely tougher ATM, but I don't think they have made a profit for a number of years, their share price hasn't moved much for years.
https://www.smh.com.au/business/com...a-dances-ownership-tango-20180110-p4yydg.html
From the article:
_Virgin ran at a $224.7 million net loss in 2016 and a$185.8 million loss in 2017. But it is cash-flow positive for the first time in five years and says its turnaround plan is running ahead of expectations_.

That article was January 2018.
It's a high cost business, that has to flip expensive planes.


----------



## sptrawler (28 August 2019)

Smurf1976 said:


> Given that between them the two companies hold a duopoly over most domestic aviation routes in Australia, this would seem to suggest that the underlying demand for travel isn't going too well.




The other thing, apart from a sliding economy, that will be affecting Qantas and Virgin IMO, is cruising. There has been a huge increase in people choosing cruises, as a holiday in recent years, especially on the East Coast.
I think a lot of people have decided a cruise is better value, than a flight and accommodation in Australia.

http://www.traveller.com.au/almost-...ve-taken-a-cruise-clia-industry-report-h10mq9

From the article: *2017*
_Did you know that almost _*one in 18*_* Australians* have taken a cruise? And that most Aussie cruisers come from NSW_?
_
Where are we cruising? The report revealed that Australians still spend most of their time cruising local waters with the Pacific islands (35 per cent), Australia (34 per cent) and New Zealand (8 per cent) accounting for the most cruise passengers_.


*This from 2018*:
_*Australia* once again leads the established *cruise* markets in penetration rates, with 5.8 per cent of the population taking an ocean *cruise* in *2018*, or the equivalent of almost *one in every 17 Australians*. This compares to 4.0 per cent in the USA, 3.0 per cent in the UK, and 2.8 per cent in Germany_.


----------



## qldfrog (29 August 2019)

And it does not help we are still importing unemployment and salary misery
https://www.macrobusiness.com.au/2019/08/australias-skilled-visa-program-piles-idle-migrants/
You will nor read this on the abc


----------



## SirRumpole (29 August 2019)

qldfrog said:


> And it does not help we are still importing unemployment and salary misery
> https://www.macrobusiness.com.au/2019/08/australias-skilled-visa-program-piles-idle-migrants/
> You will nor read this on the abc




The shortage of skilled local workers is a real bollocking for our education system.

Why are we not educating local people in the skills that are needed here ?

Too many BS Arts courses and not enough real engineering or science graduates. 

Dan Teghan on Press Club yesterday was pathetic. Treats universities as businesses and the more foreign fee paying students the better. What about the needs of the Australian population (taxpayers) for skilled workers ?


----------



## sptrawler (29 August 2019)

SirRumpole said:


> The shortage of skilled local workers is a real bollocking for our education system.
> 
> Why are we not educating local people in the skills that are needed here ?
> 
> ...



Way too much social engineering, telling everyone kids need to go to school untill year 12, then go to Uni.
Australia needs a reset, they have been steered way too far off line, we as a Country are wandering around in the intellectual wilderness, still being led by ideological BS.


----------



## tinhat (29 August 2019)

I don't know what it's like in other states but here in NSW the government has completely gutted the public funding of technical further education and the private sector is a complete farce and market failure - kids getting into large debt to get a trade certificate in personal training or hairdressing.


----------



## sptrawler (29 August 2019)

What I've noticed is the amount of kids that now go to university, in the 1970's it was 5% of students, now it is 50% of students.
The only reported difference I've read is, now a lot can't do basic maths and english and there are very few doing engineering and science courses.
They gutted tech schools because everyone goes to University, they made school leaving age year 12, the last thing 17 year old's want to do is become a first year apprentice. They have stuffed up in a huge way, wont admit it and just want to throw more money at a fundamentally stupid system.

So in reality, we have changed our education system into a child minding facility, that can be accessed well into your 20's.

In days gone by, many left at 15 to take up trades, others left at 17 to take on technical courses such as drafting, teaching, nursing etc.
Those who excelled in the academic subjects and passed year 12 and matriculated usually went to University.
As I said earlier, we need a big dose of back to the future.IMO
The problem is there are too many, making money from it, so don't want to fix it and only want more money thrown in the trough.
IMO that is why our Uni's are sliding down in World standards, because they are no longer just the realm of the creme de la creme of students any more, they are just factories that push through anything that pays.
Just my opinion


----------



## Smurf1976 (29 August 2019)

sptrawler said:


> Australia needs a reset, they have been steered way too far off line, we as a Country are wandering around in the intellectual wilderness, still being led by ideological BS.



I think what we're seeing there is that recessions are a necessary part of the economic cycle and this is what happens if we go so long without one. All sorts of inefficiencies and silly things become entrenched. 

Meanwhile:

https://www.theage.com.au/business/...stores-as-profit-plunges-20190829-p52m49.html

It's behind a paywall but just reading the words in the link gives you the basics of it.

There's a pattern here - Big W, Target, Myer, David Jones - big retailers at all price points are struggling as are airlines and other things which depend on discretionary consumer or business spending.


----------



## sptrawler (30 August 2019)

Thankfully it is only the talking heads that are believing all the BS, mainstream is still well grounded, as the last election showed.IMO

The reality is most 'normal' Australians are working in a parallel universe to the media IMO, I know most of the people in my immediate circle are working to a plan and it is nothing like what morning T.V talks about.
Be that regard housing, schooling, investing, relationships just about everything, most I know have an end game and are focusing on it.
There is a huge lack of confidence, in Australia's social and economic direction IMO and it will take some time to settle everyone down.
The last election, put a huge strain on people's underlying trust in their aspirations ever being met, they could see how everything is dependent on the stroke of a pen.
The other thing it did, was put back the Republic debate a generation.
Just my opinion.


----------



## sptrawler (30 August 2019)

Smurf1976 said:


> I think what we're seeing there is that recessions are a necessary part of the economic cycle and this is what happens if we go so long without one. All sorts of inefficiencies and silly things become entrenched.
> 
> Meanwhile:
> 
> ...



I think the other thing that is happening is society is changing, it is being brought about by technology and things like social media.
30 years ago, it was really something to have a classy car, or wear up market clothing, serve afternoon tea in Royal Doulton china and sit in a chesterfield.
Now the car means jack $hit, they buy clothes that are already ripped and pay extra for it, they drink maccas coffee and sit on anything that can be put out on the next verge pick up, then replaced.
So David Jones, is trying to compete with the undertaker, for customers.
Big W and the rest are competing with ebay.
Just my opinion.


----------



## basilio (30 August 2019)

sptrawler said:


> I think the other thing that is happening is society is changing, it is being brought about by technology and things like social media.
> 30 years ago, it was really something to have a classy car, or wear up market clothing, serve afternoon tea in Royal Doulton china and sit in a chesterfield.
> Now the car means jack $hit, they buy clothes that are already ripped and pay extra for it, they drink maccas coffee and sit on anything that can be put out on the next verge pick up, then replaced.
> So David Jones, is trying to compete with the undertaker, for customers.
> ...




The "throwaway society". IMV we are going rapidly backwards and these consequences are becoming starkly clearer. I can see many issues coming to a head.
1) Wages are stagnating. In fact households now need two fulltime well paid  wage earners to stay on top of costs of living. Is this realistic ? 

2) The soaring cost of housing is crippling people now and into the future. There are now many , many people in their 50-60's still owing a bomb on their home.  How will they survive  in retirement? Let alone of course the younger people either unable to buy a home or in a dangerous debt position in doing so.

3) The upcoming revolution in AI will destroy thousands of jobs. So how will people make a living ?

4) The consequences  of Global warming are coming home. Widespread fires, floods extreme weather, droughts are taxing communities and causing widespread loses of  housing and infrastructure. Insurance companies are  now uping premiums dramatically and refusing to insure  whole areas. 

5) There are very dangerous areas of  shoddy construction appearing across our country. We are recognising that many of the apartment blocks built and sold in the last 10-20 have expensive problems. Who will pay for these repairs ? Who will lose their shirt ?


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## SirRumpole (30 August 2019)

Speaking of Big W.

https://www.abc.net.au/news/2019-08-29/woolworths-to-close-stores-as-profit-tumbles/11459848


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## Smurf1976 (30 August 2019)

basilio said:


> There are very dangerous areas of  shoddy construction appearing across our country. We are recognising that many of the apartment blocks built and sold in the last 10-20 have expensive problems. Who will pay for these repairs ? Who will lose their shirt ?




If the problem only affected apartment blocks then I'd have far less reason for concern.......


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## BlindSquirrel (30 August 2019)

sptrawler said:


> they are just factories that push through anything that pays.




Agreed. I finished a masters degree in 2014 and noted that every class had a predilection for group assignments. As the token Australian, I took the job of english-checking the final reports because I'll be damned if I'm letting the grade slip because nobody could put the language down on paper to a standard acceptable of post-grad education.


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## Smurf1976 (6 September 2019)

So far as retail is concerned, there's a few who really need to get their minds around the concept of making it easy for customers to spend their money.

Just tried to buy something online from an Australian supplier. It's a one off purchase but in order to buy it they need me to open an account. 

OK then, bought one from the UK instead for $10 less (delivered) and no account needed. Exact same branded product in both cases.

Because in 2019 no, I really don't want yet another account with yet another password to try and remember when it's completely unnecessary for a one off purchase and nothing more than a nuisance.

Surely one of the most basic things in business is to make it easy for customers to hand you their money.


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## jbocker (6 September 2019)

Smurf1976 said:


> Surely one of the most basic things in business is to make it easy for customers to hand you their money.




As a customer ...my dear wife does not have any problem. No matter how hard businesses make it for you to spend. 

Good point though Smurf. I am looking to sell a few things on the net and will keep that in mind..
probably just use ebay or gumtree.


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## macca (6 September 2019)

Smurf1976 said:


> So far as retail is concerned, there's a few who really need to get their minds around the concept of making it easy for customers to spend their money.
> 
> Just tried to buy something online from an Australian supplier. It's a one off purchase but in order to buy it they need me to open an account.
> 
> ...




The other thing I hate is when I run a search for a particular product, it locates the website showing the product,  I click on the website and it takes me to a list of Every bl##dy product they sell.

Too hard, just click on the next one, straight to what I searched for, buy it, done !


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## Smurf1976 (6 September 2019)

jbocker said:


> I am looking to sell a few things on the net and will keep that in mind..
> probably just use ebay or gumtree.



If it's a business then "check out as a guest" is no problem. Choose the items, input address details, pay and you're done.

I do see that the economy isn't going great but on the other hand, something's rather odd when it's easier to buy "off the shelf" items from the other side of the world than to buy them from someone local.


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## SirRumpole (6 September 2019)

Smurf1976 said:


> If it's a business then "check out as a guest" is no problem. Choose the items, input address details, pay and you're done.
> 
> I do see that the economy isn't going great but on the other hand, something's rather odd when it's easier to buy "off the shelf" items from the other side of the world than to buy them from someone local.




Local businesses probably think that they have got a better chance of repeat sales if they already have you signed up. They don't know if you are a one off.


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## macca (6 September 2019)

SirRumpole said:


> Local businesses probably think that they have got a better chance of repeat sales if they already have you signed up. They don't know if you are a one off.




When I had my business the first thing I did was supply the requested goods asap, that way I had the sale in the till. I regularly used to mentally place myself in my customers shoes and look at my business with a critical eye.

Quick, friendly service with a smile will bring most people back and in time you find out all you need to know

I am quite sure that many people never actually test run their own website, some sites are atrocious and are quite difficult to spend money with.

I know that when I browse a site, if it works well I am far more likely to buy there rather than a clunky site that simply does not work efficiently.


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## SirRumpole (8 September 2019)

The economy is teetering on the edge.

https://www.abc.net.au/news/2019-09...as-consumers-keep-their-wallets-shut/11487524


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## sptrawler (8 September 2019)

From a W.A perspective, things seemed to have turned, nothing dramatic but houses that have been on the market 2-3 years are sold or under offer. It has happened in the last couple of months, time will tell but it does feel like it isn't getting worse any more.
Just my opinion.


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## Smurf1976 (8 September 2019)

sptrawler said:


> From a W.A perspective, things seemed to have turned, nothing dramatic but houses that have been on the market 2-3 years are sold or under offer. It has happened in the last couple of months, time will tell but it does feel like it isn't getting worse any more.
> Just my opinion.



I hear reports of the same thing happening in Melbourne. That's what I've been told at least.


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## sptrawler (9 September 2019)

This is the very reason, miners should be taxed by volume. 
The old excuse that they are creating jobs, therefore helping the economy, is wearing very thin. They automate remove the product faster and we do nothing but cheer them on.
https://www.abc.net.au/news/2019-09...omation-to-the-fore/11454838?section=business


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## fedexpress (9 September 2019)

SirRumpole said:


> The economy is teetering on the edge.
> 
> https://www.abc.net.au/news/2019-09...as-consumers-keep-their-wallets-shut/11487524




I believe that is true and my conversations with various people from different fields has done nothing but confirm this (builders down 20%, car industry down 15%, car financiers down 15% volume, mortgage brokers down 30-50%). It isn't rocket science but if people aren't spending, the economy will slow/stop as demand falls.


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## qldfrog (9 September 2019)

If you have the time, i found that article very interestinghttps://www.macrobusiness.com.au/2019/09/australias-seven-year-recession/
Especially the graph showing the wage share in national income
Says a lot about how we have been getting poorer year after year as individuals


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## PZ99 (10 September 2019)

Nice find @qldfrog 

But I can't see this improving any time soon... not while some people still say Aussie wages are too high or workers are too greedy. So this "household recession" will get worse before it gets better, or until we blow up the corporatocracy


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## qldfrog (10 September 2019)

Fully agree, but beware of not mistaking blowing the corporatocracy with voting labor or green
Like saying voting Hilary was voting for the people in the US
Received yesterday another water rate from uniwater SEQld
*Increase only of fixed fees*
A telling sign: people can not even reduce consumption to lessen the pain, they probably already have...
same as electricity
And i have not used a drop of water or used the sewerage since owning the building but i pay 270 a quarter for the privilege of having some pipes in the vicinity..
This is australia 2019
We need a reset and it will happen
The further the delay the greater the pain
Visit Chile or Argentina for a picture of our future
During that time, our kids go in strike against CO2..talk about air heads...


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## fedexpress (10 September 2019)

PZ99 said:


> But I can't see this improving any time soon... not while some people still say Aussie wages are too high or workers are too greedy.




Neither can I. If wages are growing, how will houses continue going up? As a consumer led economy with immigration, resources, construction and consumption being the main drivers alongside, what chance do we have of a growing economy if 3/4 drivers of growth and slowing. Wage stagnation means we will continue spending less due to the wealth effect.

A recent report by RBA suggested that the ASIC increase difficulty of getting home loans so that the property prices won't increase and cause systemic risk. So the short increase in house prices will only fall back to reality.

I see no end to this in the short/mid term at least.


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## PZ99 (10 September 2019)

Confidence has gone down the swanny 

https://www.abc.net.au/news/2019-09...ns-and-confidence-survey-august-2019/11495226


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## Smurf1976 (10 September 2019)

Most household works I can do myself but I've had quotes on a couple of things over the past week and something I've noticed is that without exception, all suppliers needed to be prodded a bit to quote on something other than the cheapest possible way of doing it. Even when I've stated a specific brand name product or method, they've looked a bit worried when telling me the price and have been quick to mention that they can also offer a cheaper option.

So I assume that most customers are looking only at the cheapest possible way of doing things at the moment even if that's not a good way of doing it.

Also very easy to get people at the moment. Got a quote for something yesterday and work should be finished by tomorrow afternoon. 

That hasn't been my experience in the past so it's a change definitely.


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## SirRumpole (10 September 2019)

PZ99 said:


> Confidence has gone down the swanny
> 
> https://www.abc.net.au/news/2019-09...ns-and-confidence-survey-august-2019/11495226




Better be careful, we may be accused of talking down the economy.


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## sptrawler (10 September 2019)

Smurf1976 said:


> Most household works I can do myself but I've had quotes on a couple of things over the past week and something I've noticed is that without exception, all suppliers needed to be prodded a bit to quote on something other than the cheapest possible way of doing it. Even when I've stated a specific brand name product or method, they've looked a bit worried when telling me the price and have been quick to mention that they can also offer a cheaper option.
> 
> So I assume that most customers are looking only at the cheapest possible way of doing things at the moment even if that's not a good way of doing it.
> 
> ...



In my opinion it is a great time for doing anything, to me it is always darkest before the dawn, time will tell.


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## basilio (10 September 2019)

I have been thinking about the situation with hundreds of apartment buildings having problems with i inflammable cladding and  or/dangerous constructions. We already know of Opal and others as well as the ones that went up like a Roman Candle. I was wondering how the banks were treating these properties on their  books.

Today I had a casual conversation with a person in the building industry and discovered that the banks are not putting an impairment on the stock of units they have loaned money against.  Apparently it is just too much and too big to fall.  The State Government had to come in with the $600m support fun to repair teh damage becasue no one wanted to admit liability.

Also turns out the flammable cladding issue is far worse than initially believed.  Interesting times in banking and building folks.


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## qldfrog (12 September 2019)

https://www.macrobusiness.com.au/2019/09/the-australian-recession-nobody-talks-about/
Ok another article with some interesting figure especially the per capital details showing how we are in a terrible economic state, hidden by massive migration figures
We have now been going backward for a while


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## PZ99 (12 September 2019)

Crickey, almost looks like a head and shoulders chart !

We're dooooomed


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## moXJO (20 September 2019)

Everyone is sitting and waiting that I'm talking to. The expectation is a lot more down. We are holding up (which surprised) me. But prices are coming down and I'm figuring that the slide will gather steam on higher oil prices.

 Retail seems like its up the creek. There was a slight bump locally , but thats dried up. People are being a lot more cautious with their money.


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## Klogg (20 September 2019)

moXJO said:


> Everyone is sitting and waiting that I'm talking to. The expectation is a lot more down. We are holding up (which surprised) me. But prices are coming down and I'm figuring that the slide will gather steam on higher oil prices.
> 
> Retail seems like its up the creek. There was a slight bump locally , but thats dried up. People are being a lot more cautious with their money.




Not sure about a retail recession.

Premier just reported today. No recession there
Accent group also reported well. I could find a few others.


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## moXJO (20 September 2019)

Klogg said:


> Not sure about a retail recession.
> 
> Premier just reported today. No recession there
> Accent group also reported well. I could find a few others.



Possibly a local phenomenon. Shopping centers are going bust her. Supermarkets were going gang busters today.
 I was talking to some shop keepers in Canberra when I was down there and they were doing it tough. 
Most trade supplies  seem to be doing ok.  
Its a mixed bag,  but it seems like people are doing it tougher


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## sptrawler (20 September 2019)

If you read the papers, they don't seem to know how to present the economy, Morrison is a guest of Trumps because he has no friends. China is going bust, but we should be friends with them because we need them, also we should be wary of them as they are infiltrating us and are being nasty to Hong Kong, but we need to keep selling our land and properties to them. 
Our welfare system is unaffordable, but we should be giving more, but we can't because we have to borrow money to fund it, so we need to have a budget surplus to make it affordable, but we should be spending more money instead of worrying about a budget surplus, because we will have a recession if we don't.
What I don't understand, is they don't seem to know why people aren't spending their money. 
Maybe if the press shut the F%$k up, people would relax and spend their money.


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## So_Cynical (21 September 2019)

Record low interest rates are not helping here and have not helped elsewhere (Japan Europe) so the only way to get the global economy moving
without propping up the current asset bubbles is infrastructure spending, governments around the world have to issue bonds to raise money
and spend that money on building things, new bond issues will give investors somewhere to get a reasonable (3%) yield.

Building things in Aust like the Melb/Syd fast train, replacing MIA canals with pipes and finishing the NBN with fibre, big projects to drive demand.


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## SirRumpole (21 September 2019)

So_Cynical said:


> Record low interest rates are not helping here and have not helped elsewhere (Japan Europe) so the only way to get the global economy moving
> without propping up the current asset bubbles is infrastructure spending, governments around the world have to issue bonds to raise money
> and spend that money on building things, new bond issues will give investors somewhere to get a reasonable (3%) yield.
> 
> Building things in Aust like the Melb/Syd fast train, replacing MIA canals with pipes and finishing the NBN with fibre, big projects to drive demand.




Yep, the government might as well make use of super low interest rates to borrow for infrastructure investment.

More hydro storages and gas pipelines, plus increasing our oil refining capabilities would seem good sense.


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## Smurf1976 (21 September 2019)

SirRumpole said:


> More hydro storages and gas pipelines, plus increasing our oil refining capabilities would seem good sense.



Things which come to mind include:

Energy as a whole (electricity, gas, liquid fuels).

Transport particularly in and between the big cities although there are other issues also.

Water always seems to be an issue.

A big one is housing. There’s a market for apartments certainly but only to a point. It seems extremely obvious that the market wants more houses on land given that pretty much any house sells even if it’s a dump whereas apartments tend to be the second choice option for many. If we’re going to keep growing the population of the big cities then it’s time to stop denying the inevitable and get on with large scale land development and associated railways and highways plus other infrastructure. Or alternatively stop cramming people into Sydney and Melbourne and make a major push to populate somewhere else.

Things relating to adapting to climate change. Some amount of change seems inevitable so no point denying it.

Sort the NBN one out.

The housing one would be controversial, there’s people making a lot of money out of the present situation of artificial land shortages. Reality though is talk to a few real estate agents and they’ll tell you the same story - there’s more demand for houses with land than there are houses to buy and there’s plenty living in an apartment only because it was cheaper, it’s not what they actually want. 

Apart from those profiting from the current situation, for the rest fixing the housing mess would be a vote winner surely. It’s not just the first home buyers and upgraders but in most cases their parents and grandparents can see the problem too.


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## SirRumpole (21 September 2019)

Smurf1976 said:


> Things which come to mind include:
> 
> Energy as a whole (electricity, gas, liquid fuels).
> 
> ...




Housing estates are spreading like slime through bushland, and apartments seem the only way of stopping more destruction of natural areas.

Instead of a "money solves everything" approach, maybe someone should start seriously thinking of population policy. How many can we take , why should we take them, and can we afford to , in terms of supplying essentials like water , power and transport to an ever increasing population.


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## Smurf1976 (21 September 2019)

SirRumpole said:


> Housing estates are spreading like slime through bushland, and apartments seem the only way of stopping more destruction of natural areas.
> 
> Instead of a "money solves everything" approach, maybe someone should start seriously thinking of population policy.



I’ve long been an advocate for a sensible population policy but it falls on intentionally blocked ears.

If however the masses insist that a growing population doesn’t lead to reducing the way they live, well then that’ll force government to face the unsustainability of the whole situation.

I’m well aware that my suggestion would have the effect of bringing rather a lot of issues, economic and environmental, to a head and that’s the intent. It would ultimately force a shift in thinking which at present seems stuck, having not shifted since the late 1980’s.

Our leaders are still living in a world where Sydney had 3 million people, environmental concerns were something that might matter sometime in the future and interest rates were high to the point that debt reduction was an imperative no matter what the consequences. Continuing with that mindset, unchanged in 30 years, brings us to where we are today physically, economically and environmentally with what amounts to a situation comparable to the frog slowly boiling to death as the pot warms.

So my thinking basically says draw a line in the sand, don’t accept anything going backwards, and that’ll force a much broader rethink of the entire situation.

Or in other words I propse to replace the can with a solid concrete block in order to ensure that anyone who tries kicking it down the road will only try it once. Render the ponzi scheme impractical in an obvious manner and it’ll force a new direction.


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## SirRumpole (21 September 2019)

smurf1976 said:
			
		

> So my thinking basically says draw a line in the sand, don’t accept anything going backwards, and that’ll force a much broader rethink of the entire situation.
> 
> Or in other words I propse to replace the can with a solid concrete block in order to ensure that anyone who tries kicking it down the road will only try it once.




Well, it's a risk. Large scale land development if it goes ahead will certainly stuff things up for good, but if it's seriously proposed then there will be a big kickback from the environmentalists (including your average citizen who wants to maintain a reasonable quality of life).

Trouble is, no one will seriously propose large scale land development as they don't want the kickbacks, it will all be done on the quiet, slice by slice until the effect is achieved and the frog is well and truly boiled.

So how do you propose getting the developers and their tame politicians to actually declare their real objectives ?


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## Smurf1976 (21 September 2019)

I perhaps haven't explained it very well but what I'm really thinking is that we have a situation where nominal GDP is going up but the Australian economy doesn't seem to be really working for ordinary Australians.

Sure, GDP is higher but if we look at the ability of ordinary people to afford things like a house with land, fuel / power, using roads and so on well then we're going backward.

If you look at someone doing what I'll call an "ordinary" job, let's say someone who works as a painter or in office administration, then it used to be a given that of course they could afford a house in the suburbs, they could water the garden, they could heat the place in winter and they could drive their car no worries. Now they can't afford a house, are told to not use much water even if they do have a house, are struggling to afford heating and pay a toll to use various roads.

It seems to me that as population goes up, we're not increasing the supply of land, power / gas, water, roads etc to keep up with that meaning less per person.

Time to call an end to the nonsense in my view. Either build the required infrastructure or if it's not reasonable to do that for either practical reasons or due to environmental concerns etc then call a halt to the population ponzi without delay. Refocus the economy so that it works for ordinary Australians rather than being obsessed with making some magic figure go up.

My thinking of building what's required is that it does two things. To the extent it can be built, it boosts the economy in the present. To the extent objections are raised and it's not practical to build it then it forces acceptance that we're on the wrong track with reliance on population growth and that an alternative approach is required.

In the context of the thread it's relevant in so far as we seem to have more in total but less per person. GDP is going up but people feel worse off or at least that their situation isn't improving.


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## qldfrog (21 September 2019)

Gdp is growing less than population so we are and have been for nearly a decade getting poorer every year


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## So_Cynical (22 September 2019)

qldfrog said:


> Gdp is growing less than population so we are and have been for nearly a decade getting poorer every year




Capital in the Twenty-First Century is a very interesting read/listen, the book points out that low growth/inflation/GDP is actually normal, the high growth
 since 1950 was as a result of the destruction of capital by both world wars, the exceptional growth of the tiger economy's was a normal catch up, the end
of empire for the developed economy's normal.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Capital_in_the_Twenty-First_Century

Consider that a couple of years has passed and interest rates are above 3% again, inflation 2%, GDP growth 1% = thats actually pretty good, sustainable.


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## qldfrog (22 September 2019)

I fully agree that the gdp growth is a one off move from agricultural to city livestyle, technical and mostly demographic conditions
China showing all of these in a generation
Australia is trying to keep these figures by massive immigration...
Not a good future ahead
I will try to find that book.thanks for the lead @So_Cynical


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## sptrawler (22 September 2019)

The other problem these days, is that stuff lasts longer, materials are better electronics are better, just about everything lasts untill you are fed up with it eg car, tv etc.
Therefore a lot of people see no reason to buy something new, this brings about a feeling of going nowhere and makes people feel like they are missing out.
The norm a few years ago was upgrade the car, computer, t.v, mobile phone etc, which gave people a sugar hit. These days people dont have to do it so they are left feeling wanting.
Just my opinion


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## So_Cynical (23 September 2019)

qldfrog said:


> I fully agree that the gdp growth is a one off move from agricultural to city livestyle, technical and mostly demographic conditions
> China showing all of these in a generation
> Australia is trying to keep these figures by massive immigration...
> Not a good future ahead
> I will try to find that book.thanks for the lead @So_Cynical




Japan is the perfect example of a mature modern economy without any immigration, low growth across the board and thats ok, normal.


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## qldfrog (23 September 2019)

And i know where i would prefer to live between China with growth or Japan without
Europe could have been Japan II.
They decided to opt for immigration
Actually the voters and people did not , the powers decided for them
As a result, culture destruction, welfare state, identity lost, crime and poverty
And this is the model Australia is taking, slightly better immigration but still...
And BTW, i am a migrant here....


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## Jack Aubrey (23 September 2019)

I think the immigration/population equation for Australia is more complex. While I agree that we are in a "per capita recession", cutting immigration in the short-term will only exacerbate that trend as immigrants (and population growth generally) are a key factor in demand for housing and consumer goods which keep our economy from travelling boom-bust cycle of export commodities.  The real failure has been with politicians failing to plan, or even keep up with, investment in infrastructure, TAFE, research, etc (That's not a party political comment BTW, they have all failed dismally).  Good infrastructure and land-use planning are the real keys to both environmental protection and productivity IMO. 

Contrary to popular (populist?) belief, most immigrants, including refugees, to Australia become self-supporting very quickly despite clear disadvantages in many job markets.  Personally, I think our economy is still missing opportunities and potential productivity boosts by not being more aggressive about skilled migration, especially wrt to young, educated people from countries suffering from economic and political strife. I don't know what the stats say, but there are also many "good news" stories around about refugee communities revitalising country towns and regional cities and I see a lot of that happening on my "grey nomad" travels. (spend time in Ballarat, Armidale or Coffs Harbour and see the energy!)

Disclosure: I am not an immigrant, at least not for three generations.


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## SirRumpole (23 September 2019)

Well, I don't think it's a case of "good" immigrants or "bad" immigrants the point is the total number.

Any extra population adds to demand as you say, but they also increase the supply of labour which keeps wages stagnant and reduces spending capacity.

Considering a lot of the work around these days is "insecure", the gig economy as they say, this insecurity does not provide the conditions for people to invest in housing or generally spend in the economy, plus the increased use of automation in many industries reduces the demand for labour, further reducing wages and conditions,  so I think we are in a period of diminishing returns as far as population growth goes.

As for importing skilled labour, that just points to the failure of our education system imv. Why can't we educate and train our own people as we used to without dependence on imports ?


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## SirRumpole (26 September 2019)

Another indication of a flagging economy and the pressure to reduce costs and perhaps use inferior materials.

https://www.abc.net.au/news/2019-09...mpanies-liquidated-in-record-numbers/11512002


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## qldfrog (26 September 2019)

I am a migrant but please


Jack Aubrey said:


> Contrary to popular (populist?) belief, most immigrants, including refugees, to Australia become self-supporting very quickly despite clear disadvantages in many job markets.



This is so far from truth, from memory, last figure were around 95% of refugees were still on welfare 3 years after arrival 
Feel free to check
Overwhelmingly, refugees are a burden on our society
You can accept it for compassion, in the hope of a better integration of their children etc etc but economics on the short term is bad, migrants on the other end will work as they will not qualify to welfare for a while, and are of a more industrious nature as a consequence of the migration process
The question is do we need more people, i am sure we do not even if we had more water and resources..and we do not
Let's be a role model in population growth first instead of trying to respond to co2 challenges
And yes gdp will slow but i felt better in australia 20y ago than now, as a society and lifestyle


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## basilio (28 September 2019)

qldfrog said:


> I am a migrant but please
> 
> This is so far from truth, from memory, last figure were around 95% of refugees were still on welfare 3 years after arrival
> Feel free to check
> *Overwhelmingly, refugees are a burden on our society*




Really ?  Not sure the facts bear out that observation
1) The entire post WW immigration boom was based on the displaced refugees from war torn Europe.  They built Australia from the 50's to the 80's

2) The Vietnamese  refugees that came as boat people in the 80's have been one of hardest working and best integrated communities in Australia after the post war refugee boom

3) How did  you find the figure of 95% of refugees were still on welfare after 3 years. The only way I could understand that statement is if they were based on people locked in centres .


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## basilio (28 September 2019)

Saw an interesting/disturbing story on the rise of what looks like a very ambitious investment opportunity.

If you have a spare $500,000 and want to earn 6.25% .......

*Concern over ad blitz for high-end investment fund buying into island resort*
*Exclusive:* mass market ads for Mayfair 101, a fund open to ‘sophisticated investors only’, have consumer advocates worried

... Meanwhile, an offer document obtained by the Guardian shows Mayfair 101 is directly targeting investors who are frustrated with the low returns offered by bank term deposits by offering 6.45% a year on investments made in September.

The document asks potential customers if they are “tired of term deposits” and boasts that the product “is a smart and effective way of earning competitive rates of return whilst official interest rates are at record-lows”.

Interestingly enough the first big winner is Peter Bond from Linc Energy. Mayfair paid him $31.5m for his Dunk Island  property which cost hm $7.5m
https://www.theguardian.com/austral...end-investment-fund-buying-into-island-resort


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## qldfrog (28 September 2019)

basilio said:


> Really ?  Not sure the facts bear out that observation
> 1) The entire post WW immigration boom was based on the displaced refugees from war torn Europe.  They built Australia from the 50's to the 80's
> 
> 2) The Vietnamese  refugees that came as boat people in the 80's have been one of hardest working and best integrated communities in Australia after the post war refugee boom
> ...



Do your own searches instead ..i i wi look for the info when i have some times
Point one and 2, fully agree, you are just 40y too late when applying it to today's world


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## qldfrog (28 September 2019)

https://www.heraldsun.com.au/blogs/...s/news-story/74891f8b815bb1191eff519e7ba95a28
I try  to find data  from thebleeding heart sites, but not easy
 figures hides the same fact among immigrants vs refugees etc
 we are at  30pc employment max after 3y
Anyway, i am sure we can bring in a Karen, Chinese or Vietnamese dissident and they will be working in no time, as for your Syrian jihadist or south south humanitarian refugee..good luck
But i am just an old prejudiced white male so who cares about facts


----------



## qldfrog (28 September 2019)

Try to find the figure too
Refugees..so humanitarian refugees, not immigrants on welfare after 3 y
Interested in being proven wrong
And having employment does not mean out of welfare


----------



## Jack Aubrey (28 September 2019)

Not biting on the refugees and welfare issue (no data) but, back on topic, my wife showed me a sales catalogue from one of her preferred clothing outlets - a bricks and mortar major - yesterday with markdowns as high as 80%.  She noted that she had never seen this mob discount so aggressively.  Most of the lines discounted were new to the market this year.  I wonder whether this means retailers are getting edgy about cashflow as the prices were totally ridiculous for a chain with large overheads?


----------



## qldfrog (28 September 2019)

Make your own mind
Coming from a partisan website trying to contradict a similar claim
https://theconversation.com/factche...welfare-with-an-unemployment-rate-of-97-54395
It is quasi impossible to find figures, there are pages and pages of pro no border sites returned by Google and i can not find back the report i read a year or so ago on this subject
But i believe that link says it all in its clumsy denial
Over for me, i have enough of a battle with the co2 is evil clan


----------



## SirRumpole (28 September 2019)

Jack Aubrey said:


> Not biting on the refugees and welfare issue (no data) but, back on topic, my wife showed me a sales catalogue from one of her preferred clothing outlets - a bricks and mortar major - yesterday with markdowns as high as 80%.  She noted that she had never seen this mob discount so aggressively.  Most of the lines discounted were new to the market this year.  I wonder whether this means retailers are getting edgy about cashflow as the prices were totally ridiculous for a chain with large overheads?




Retail stores are being monstered by online sellers. They are probably trying to clear some old stock at bargain prices. When you consider all the big stores that have collapsed over time , been taken over or moved into online retailing, I certainly would not consider it a secure job working in what is left.


----------



## Smurf1976 (28 September 2019)

Jack Aubrey said:


> my wife showed me a sales catalogue from one of her preferred clothing outlets - a bricks and mortar major - yesterday with markdowns as high as 80%.






SirRumpole said:


> Retail stores are being monstered by online sellers.




I don't know a great deal about ladies fashion but looking at retailers in general I think part of the problem is that they've essentially become a "greatest hits" version replicated numerous times over.

By that I'm referring to music in the pre-online days. Go and buy all 10 albums that the band produced if you're a serious fan or if they were reasonably popular then someone will have produced a "greatest hits" album by now. Nothing wrong with buying the GH if that's all you want of course.

With shops it seems that there's been a huge growth in the number of physical shops during the period 1980 - 2010 to the point that even relatively small cities tend to have multiple shopping precincts versus historically when it was all based in the CBD apart from a few suburban shops here and there. 

Thing is though that when you look in detail what you find isn't some vast number of shops but actually it's very few shops simply replicated over and over, sometimes with more than one shopfront in the same street, mall or shopping center. Further, the shops are much the same with everywhere from Perth to Brisbane to Hobart having the same national chains dominating.

That seems to have created a situation where if you want to buy something absolutely mainstream then there's numerous places to buy it from but nowhere at all that can sell you anything even slightly less common. Back to my analogy, it's like having a dozen Greatest Hits CD's, all exactly the same, but not having even one of the band's albums. In reality you've only got one CD so far as content is concerned, the rest just fills up space.

The only one I can think of which has gone the other way, and it seems to have worked pretty well for them, is Bunnings. They do tend to have the full range or at least a decent range of something not just the most common one. 

That lack of product choice from most retailers effectively forces online not simply to save money or for convenience but as the only option. There's no point complaining that consumers aren't buying what the shops aren't selling.


----------



## SirRumpole (2 October 2019)

Rate cut after rate cut has done nothing to stimulate the economy.

People should now be asking Morrison about his promises of a "strong economy" and what they are doing about it.

He talked the talk at the last election, now he has to walk the walk.

https://www.abc.net.au/news/2019-10...ip-lowe-further-rate-cuts-inevitable/11565464


----------



## qldfrog (2 October 2019)

I think it is high time to redirect spending into productive part of the economy, in qld during drought, we release water because a dam is still not fixed after 6 years
Scrap ndis,nbn, useless submarines, keep budget in line, reallocate into proper infrastructure, railways,road,dams,power lines, hydraulic storage/release,
Throwing money around helicopter wise does not increase the wealth of a country, it increases an empty gdp
Do investment into the economy, not welfare of the economy and keep budget balanced to allow spare capacity when real **** hits the fan worldwide
My election platform


----------



## Smurf1976 (2 October 2019)

qldfrog said:


> I think it is high time to redirect spending into productive part of the economy



If you'd spent the past 30 years in a coma and had woken up today then current political thinking would make plenty of sense.

It makes no sense however if you've lived through the past three decades and were conscious during that time. A huge amount has changed but our politicians are still living in a world where the biggest problems are how to get inflation _down_, what to do about government debt and what to do about the problem of the State Bank having gone bust.

Those things seem to still be the underlying basis of political thinking but they're about as relevant in 2019 as cassette tapes, Ansett or Hey Hey It's Saturday. The world has changed and significantly so.

It'll take an actual crisis to force change in my view.


----------



## SirRumpole (2 October 2019)

Trouble is that no politicians want to face unpleasant facts or contemplate structural change.

We are in the position of having our industries and livelihoods leached away by low wage economies where being 'working poor' is a way of life and a lifelong trap for most.

Do we want to end up like them ? 

We can't make a lot of things in this country any more because the knowledge has been exported.

How much do we get out of "free trade agreements" ? We are worse off following our FTA with the US.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Australia–United_States_Free_Trade_Agreement

Trump may well be right. Countries should look after themselves first.

The low wage countries that we compete with have massive populations who if they were paid a reasonable wage would be able to afford the stuff they produce instead of offloading them to us.

Maybe living on a diet of cheap imports for so long has weakened our immune system, like living on nothing but potato crisps, it eventually catches up with you.

But there is no sign among the major parties that they even recognise the problem, much less have the will to do anything about it.


----------



## sptrawler (2 October 2019)

SirRumpole said:


> Trouble is that no politicians want to face unpleasant facts or contemplate structural change.
> 
> We are in the position of having our industries and livelihoods leached away by low wage economies where being 'working poor' is a way of life and a lifelong trap for most.
> 
> ...




Well just last week ScoMo said exactly what you saying about China, and the press and Labor haven't stopped bagging him for it.

https://www.abc.net.au/news/2019-09...lls-for-trade-overhaul-of-wto-system/11541522

From the article:
Speaking at a business event in Chicago, Mr Morrison celebrated China's economic success, noting the country's growth into an economic powerhouse had brought hundreds of millions of people out of poverty.

But he said China's transition to a more developed economy needed to be reflected in the trade obligations and rules that were applied to it by the global community.

"As nations progress and develop then the obligations and how the rules apply to them, also shift," he said.

"I mean we have not seen the emergence of a nation economically like China, since the United States frankly, and at a pace. So [that] is obviously going to impact on how the global institutions and rules work."

Opposition Leader Anthony Albanese said he did not agree with Mr Morrison's assessment of China, and suggested that the Prime Minister's decision to make the call from the United States muddied the message he was trying to send.

"If he is sending China a message from Chicago then that's a message perhaps, if it was going to be advanced, would have been better sent from Australia so there was no confusion that the Prime Minister was advancing Australia's national interest," he said.

"T*here's a legitimate debate about the World [Trade] Organisation system but we support the existing system*."


----------



## Smurf1976 (2 October 2019)

sptrawler said:


> Opposition Leader Anthony Albanese said he did not agree with Mr Morrison's assessment of China




A point which goes a long way to explaining why he's Leader of the Opposition rather than being a Minister in the government.

Ordinary people, particularly Labor's traditional support base among blue collar workers but also those in non-elite white collar roles, can see that we're being dragged down to the lowest common denominator.


----------



## sptrawler (2 October 2019)

Smurf1976 said:


> A point which goes a long way to explaining why he's Leader of the Opposition rather than being a Minister in the government.
> 
> Ordinary people, particularly Labor's traditional support base among blue collar workers but also those in non-elite white collar roles, can see that we're being dragged down to the lowest common denominator.



Absolutely, Australia along with most other first World Countries agreed to help industrialise the third World countries, but it has got to the point in Australia, we can't afford our standard of living and our welfare system.
If something isn't done we will lose both within a couple of generations.
It is a shame the left is all in favour of us becoming a third world country, i can't understand why, but there is certainly a strong push.IMO
They have dumbed down the education system, the apprenticeship system, university entrance etc, god knows what the end game is?


----------



## Smurf1976 (2 October 2019)

sptrawler said:


> Absolutely, Australia along with most other first World Countries agreed to help industrialise the third World countries



I think part of the issue is that pretty much nobody understood that this was the case until 30-40 years after it was decided.

That there was such an agreement was in hindsight the missing piece of information in all manner of things which went wrong from business and government forecasts through to the big environmental debates of the 1980's and 90's. Pretty much nobody involved with all that really understood that aspect upon which everything else rested.

As it stands now though, well it's rather obvious really.


----------



## sptrawler (2 October 2019)

Smurf1976 said:


> I think part of the issue is that pretty much nobody understood that this was the case until 30-40 years after it was decided.
> 
> That there was such an agreement was in hindsight the missing piece of information in all manner of things which went wrong from business and government forecasts through to the big environmental debates of the 1980's and 90's. Pretty much nobody involved with all that really understood that aspect upon which everything else rested.
> 
> As it stands now though, well it's rather obvious really.



So true, a lot of it from memory was brought about when Argentina, Brazil etc reneged on their interest payments in the early 1970's.
It is the same as most things, people don't read up and question media reports, to make sure they are actually accurate.
It is like on here on a certain thread, someone was going on about how little Australia was doing in adopting renewables, then found out we are actually per capita doing more than most. The general public aren't being told that by the press, they are being told anything but. IMO
It must be easier selling miss information. IMO


----------



## SirRumpole (2 October 2019)

sptrawler said:


> Well just last week ScoMo said exactly what you saying about China, and the press and Labor haven't stopped bagging him for it.




Well then, I await with anticipation the Morrison governments imposition of US like tariffs on Chinese goods.


----------



## sptrawler (2 October 2019)

SirRumpole said:


> Well then, I await with anticipation the Morrison governments imposition of US like tariffs on Chinese goods.



Or you can wait till Albo gets in and continues rowing us down the swanny.
Nothing like blind faith, just sad really.


----------



## Humid (2 October 2019)

Smurf1976 said:


> If you'd spent the past 30 years in a coma and had woken up today then current political thinking would make plenty of sense.
> 
> It makes no sense however if you've lived through the past three decades and were conscious during that time. A huge amount has changed but our politicians are still living in a world where the biggest problems are how to get inflation _down_, what to do about government debt and what to do about the problem of the State Bank having gone bust.
> 
> ...




Pretty much the demographic that re-elected them


----------



## Humid (2 October 2019)

sptrawler said:


> Well just last week ScoMo said exactly what you saying about China, and the press and Labor haven't stopped bagging him for it.
> 
> https://www.abc.net.au/news/2019-09...lls-for-trade-overhaul-of-wto-system/11541522
> 
> ...




Hey you got your franking credits now put up with the rest of it Homer


----------



## Humid (2 October 2019)

sptrawler said:


> Or you can wait till Albo gets in and continues rowing us down the swanny.
> Nothing like blind faith, just sad really.




Votes Libéral for 30 years quotes blind faith
Lolz


----------



## sptrawler (2 October 2019)

Humid said:


> Votes Libéral for 30 years quotes blind faith
> Lolz



Was it 30 years ago since Bob was in, jeez time flies.
I hope Labor can find another Bob, then I might start voting for them again.


----------



## sptrawler (2 October 2019)

Humid said:


> Hey you got your franking credits now put up with the rest of it Homer



Well with interest rates at 1.6% for 12 months, I need something.


----------



## Smurf1976 (2 October 2019)

Humid said:


> Pretty much the demographic that re-elected them



I don't want to hijack an economics thread and turn it into a political one but every analysis I've seen on the most recent Australian election is to the effect that Labor appealed too much to those who wear an expensive suit to work, drive a Mercedes and live in the inner suburbs and not enough to the rest.

Politics aside, if you're any sort of ordinary worker, so anyone who's not in the elite professions or with serious money, then the problem is rather obvious.

Australian company paying $30 or $40 an hour plus has to comply with all sorts of regulations just can't compete on price with someone overseas paying $5 an hour or less. End result is they close and our economy is increasingly filled with insecure low wage jobs in service industries as a result and that situation brings us to where we are now.

It doesn't matter how low the interest rates are if consumers don't have secure employment and wages which are are least keeping pace with living costs and preferably increasing. Trouble is, it's rather hard for business to increase wages when they're already paying several times what someone else producing the same goods or services is paying.

I intend that as a being a politically neutral comment as such but obviously there are political implications at both ends of the spectrum. Trump is the most obvious example but then in Germany environmental groups also seem to be leaning in the direction that tariffs could be applied to those with lower standards to neutralise the economic advantage gained from that.

As an investor there's not much to gain from trying to change the world but it would be wise to understand where it's all at. Even the RBA wants wages higher and is no doubt aware that doing so requires a change in focus away from the "lowest costs" one we've had for the past 30+ years.

The upside of it all is that someone can go to Kmart and buy goods at lower nominal prices than they'd have paid for comparable goods in 1989 which represents an outright crash in real terms. The downside is that it's a consumption binge fuelled by hollowing out the economy and has always been ultimately unsustainable.


----------



## qldfrog (3 October 2019)

Smurf1976 said:


> I don't want to hijack an economics thread and turn it into a political one but every analysis I've seen on the most recent Australian election is to the effect that Labor appealed too much to those who wear an expensive suit to work, drive a Mercedes and live in the inner suburbs and not enough to the rest.
> 
> Politics aside, if you're any sort of ordinary worker, so anyone who's not in the elite professions or with serious money, then the problem is rather obvious.
> 
> ...



And in Australia, we are stuck in choices between current government which is in status quo or labour which would worsen the situation: more taxes, regulations,h pay and even higher super..so increasing our uncompetitive side,adding increased debt and so less money unless we can sell debt at negative rate..not yet case for Australia
No surprise people want to vote for Trump or Boris or...
At least they tell what everyone not living in fairyland can see and live
That does not mean they can implement their promises, democracy is long gone and dead, but at least they can try


----------



## qldfrog (3 October 2019)

Back on the street level
https://www.news.com.au/finance/sma...s/news-story/0c7337a90b3b28a00116aa04652fe420
Go on ebay: most Chinese goods are shipped from hk/china postage free yet are sold only a few dollars and arrive at your door
If i ship anything from Australia  to even next door, it will cost me more
This is killing SME trying to jump onto the internet sales wagon
That is a very simple problem entirely within the control of the government
Even a  mail stamp is 1$, you can get chinese shipped product by your door for that price..
https://www.ebay.com.au/itm/USB-2m-...r-iPhone-6-X-8-7-5-iPad-Air-lot-/263128088143


----------



## SirRumpole (3 October 2019)

sptrawler said:


> Or you can wait till Albo gets in and continues rowing us down the swanny.
> Nothing like blind faith, just sad really.




Morrison is PM right now, not Albo. He either walks the walk or he doesn't, it's up to him.

LNP have done nothing for 6 years and people still vote for them. That's either blind faith or something a lot worse.


----------



## SirRumpole (3 October 2019)

Smurf1976 said:


> but then in Germany environmental groups also seem to be leaning in the direction that tariffs could be applied to those with lower standards to neutralise the economic advantage gained from that.




Good idea. If the rest of the world imposed tariffs based on the difference in wages and conditions between the importing countries and the exporting countries, then that would encourage the low wage countries to raise their wages and conditions and reduce working slavery in the First World.


----------



## SirRumpole (3 October 2019)

SirRumpole said:


> Good idea. If the rest of the world imposed tariffs based on the difference in wages and conditions between the importing countries and the exporting countries, then that would encourage the low wage countries to raise their wages and conditions and reduce working slavery in the First World.




That should be Third World.


----------



## sptrawler (3 October 2019)

SirRumpole said:


> Morrison is PM right now, not Albo. He either walks the walk or he doesn't, it's up to him.
> 
> LNP have done nothing for 6 years and people still vote for them. That's either blind faith or something a lot worse.



I don't disagree with you on that, I was only pointing out that you and Morison seem to be on the same page, whereas Albo and Labors stance seems to be opposite to your preferred position on trade. 
Whereas in your post #1003, you suggest that neither party even recognises or acknowledges the issue.


----------



## SirRumpole (3 October 2019)

sptrawler said:


> I don't disagree with you on that, I was only pointing out that you and Morison seem to be on the same page, whereas Albo and Labors stance seems to be opposite to your preferred position on trade.
> Whereas in your post #1003, you suggest that neither party even recognises or acknowledges the issue.




At least Morrison has mentioned the issue, I'll give him credit for that. If he actually does something about it I might actually vote for him. However I fear that it was just a momentary headline grabber to suck up to Trump.

Labor's position is disappointingly orthodox. I would have hoped that a party that purports to represent the "workers" would be concerned about the hollowing out of our manufacturing industry. I guess they are too wedded to the Hawke-Keating tariff reductions that they are reluctant to reverse that policy in case it's an admission of failure.


----------



## sptrawler (3 October 2019)

We are such a precarious position in our trade imbalance, that we could be destroyed by Chine in weeks. They are the major buyer of our exports and are the ones we import most of our consumer products from, if they put an embargo on us we would be in a World of pain within days.
So it is o.k to go sabre rattling, but it has to be done from arms length as Morrison did, the only Country that can bring China to the table is the U.S.
The problem with that is, the U.S multinational companies, who are very active in offshoring the labour component of their products are very much against the idea. 
From the outside looking in, it would appear the U.S Democrats have a very similar stance as Labor in Australia, where they agree with the status quo regarding trade imbalance. Whether that is on a humanitarian or a personal gain basis I don't know, but it will lead to our economy becoming weaker and weaker. With that will come the difficulty to provide the services like welfare that we enjoy, not everyone in South American Countries and third world countries are poor, the ruling class in these pseudo-socialist style states are extremely well off.
What I can't understand is why the press appear to be embracing the concept, with Labor it is understandable, fortunately as was proven last election not everyone is buying the $hit butty. 
Just my opinion. DYOR


----------



## SirRumpole (3 October 2019)

sptrawler said:


> We are such a precarious position in our trade imbalance, that we could be destroyed by Chine in weeks. They are the major buyer of our exports and are the ones we import most of our consumer products from, if they put an embargo on us we would be in a World of pain within days.




The Australia-China relationship is at a low point. If they wanted to punish us they would have done so already. They need our resources and they want to buy more of our farmland and other businesses. 

They probably don't want to upset the apple cart either.


----------



## qldfrog (4 October 2019)

During this time in Straya
https://www.macrobusiness.com.au/2019/10/migrants-line-up-to-game-australias-visa-system/
Sure we need more people here with all the job shortages we have 
Irony..just in case


----------



## Jack Aubrey (4 October 2019)

So while we've all fallen for the "look over there!" tactic about boat arrivals, we have 200,000+ arrivals by plane who just slip in and game the system?  Sounds like a policy.  Mind you, we've had a system of "Migration Agents" since at least the 1970s which has distorted the system at every opportunity - 457 Visa anyone?


----------



## SirRumpole (4 October 2019)

Why haven't all the airborn arrivals been sent to Mannus or Nauru I wonder?


----------



## satanoperca (7 October 2019)

SirRumpole said:


> Why haven't all the airborn arrivals been sent to Mannus or Nauru I wonder?




Does sound as good from a marketing perspective.

We the overloads, elected by the people to serve our selves, send all illegal boat people to the islands of banishment. "Boat People" The general populous can understand the term as they cannot relate to it 

We the overloads, elect by the people to serve ourselves, send all illegal immigrants that came by the comfort of flight to the islands of banishment. "Plane flight people" F--kme, I fly by plane what is wrong with that.

So it is easy to create a stir from a political point scoring view, "Boat people are bad", f--k the evidence.


----------



## sptrawler (7 October 2019)

SirRumpole said:


> The Australia-China relationship is at a low point. If they wanted to punish us they would have done so already. They need our resources and they want to buy more of our farmland and other businesses.
> 
> They probably don't want to upset the apple cart either.




https://www.abc.net.au/news/2019-10...acts-on-australian-woodchip-industry/11577740

https://www.theguardian.com/busines...ts-of-australian-coal-sending-dollar-tumbling


----------



## satanoperca (7 October 2019)

sptrawler said:


> https://www.abc.net.au/news/2019-10-06/us-china-trade-war-impacts-on-australian-woodchip-industry/115777




Short term for the producers is not so good, long term - excellent, that is the funny thing about trees, they keep on growing and getting fatter, don't harvest today is only a short term delay as you can harvest next year when they are bigger


----------



## qldfrog (8 October 2019)

satanoperca said:


> Short term for the producers is not so good, long term - excellent, that is the funny thing about trees, they keep on growing and getting fatter, don't harvest today is only a short term delay as you can harvest next year when they are bigger



Or they get burnt, or the Green influence change the rules again
In my foolish do good,i revegetated a creek and planted, mulched and fenced off trees along my creek..When time came to build a cottage on the block, this ripariam rainforest was deemed too near from the proposed building site and i was not allowed either to cut a single tree
The lesson has been learnt and will be widely advertised


----------



## qldfrog (8 October 2019)

Meanwhile
https://www.afr.com/policy/economy/australia-is-rich-dumb-and-getting-dumber-20191007-p52y8i


----------



## SirRumpole (8 October 2019)

qldfrog said:


> Meanwhile
> https://www.afr.com/policy/economy/australia-is-rich-dumb-and-getting-dumber-20191007-p52y8i




That's a pretty sad report, and goes with what we have been saying over several threads.

Another report that backs this up.

https://www.theguardian.com/austral...g-on-research-plummets-far-below-oecd-average


----------



## sptrawler (8 October 2019)

SirRumpole said:


> That's a pretty sad report, and goes with what we have been saying over several threads.
> 
> Another report that backs this up.
> 
> https://www.theguardian.com/austral...g-on-research-plummets-far-below-oecd-average



Meanwhile we throw more money at poorer and poorer results. 

https://www.canberratimes.com.au/st...e-to-ditch-the-atar-and-even-naplan/?cs=14264
Maybe it is about time, there was some accountability for poor results, I know it happens in industry, for some reason education doesn't appear to be judged on outcomes. 
It is everyone else's fault, two times table hasn't changed, it just they don't teach them anymore. Now it is more important to learn about feeling good while you're not learning, as long as you are happy and not stressed, that's the main thing.


----------



## SirRumpole (8 October 2019)

sptrawler said:


> Meanwhile we throw more money at poorer and poorer results.
> 
> https://www.canberratimes.com.au/st...e-to-ditch-the-atar-and-even-naplan/?cs=14264
> Maybe it is about time, there was some accountability for poor results, I know it happens in industry, for some reason education doesn't appear to be judged on outcomes.
> It is everyone else's fault, two times table hasn't changed, it just they don't teach them anymore. Now it is more important to learn about feeling good while you're not learning, as long as you are happy and not stressed, that's the main thing.




Pretty Lefty article that. 

There has to be some measurement of student's understanding of the academic subjects that form the backbone of skills.

All this stuff about "benefit to society" is gobbledygook and just serves to excuse bad teachers from failing to teach the educational basics to a satisfactory level.


----------



## sptrawler (8 October 2019)

SirRumpole said:


> Pretty Lefty article that.
> 
> There has to be some measurement of student's understanding of the academic subjects that form the backbone of skills.
> 
> All this stuff about "benefit to society" is gobbledygook and just serves to excuse bad teachers from failing to teach the educational basics to a satisfactory level.



The other problem is, as soon as you mention teacher assessment, there is a massive outcry. IMO it wont be long before the teaching profession actually wont involve children at all, schools will be childminding facilities and the onus will return to parents to teach their children. Online courses will be available, that can be accessed from the the home, so parents can help the children when they get home from work.
Universities will still operate, but will be full of students from first World Countries like China, Thailand etc, while our children do the menial tasks.
Jeez that is like most other Third World Countries, who would have thought.


----------



## sptrawler (8 October 2019)

Jack Aubrey said:


> So while we've all fallen for the "look over there!" tactic about boat arrivals, we have 200,000+ arrivals by plane who just slip in and game the system?  Sounds like a policy.  Mind you, we've had a system of "Migration Agents" since at least the 1970s which has distorted the system at every opportunity - 457 Visa anyone?



I guess the slight difference is, when they arrive by plane they have to have a passport, so at least you know who they are.
It would be funny if they started winding down the windows, on the planes to throw their passports out, like the boat people.


----------



## SirRumpole (8 October 2019)

sptrawler said:


> I guess the slight difference is, when they arrive by plane they have to have a passport, so at least you know who they are.
> It would be funny if they started winding down the windows, on the planes to throw their passports out, like the boat people.




Yes, and we give them a visa, so maybe we should be tougher on who we give visas to.

80 people a day claim asylum after arriving by air, imagine how those people clog up our courts and the bureaucracy.

https://www.news.com.au/travel/trav...e/news-story/a1b5c6d49a2cc1fc3a1d1b1a9b304ecc

We might have to change the name of Qantas to "air asylum".


----------



## Smurf1976 (8 October 2019)

qldfrog said:


> The lesson has been learnt and will be widely advertised



For the same reason pretty much nobody plants trees in suburban backyards anymore.


----------



## Smurf1976 (8 October 2019)

SirRumpole said:


> That's a pretty sad report, and goes with what we have been saying over several threads.



It's all a bit like watching someone's health decline slowly but surely or watching the death by a thousand cuts of a business.

It's a slowly creeping thing but it's plain to see for those willing to open their eyes.


----------



## againsthegrain (8 October 2019)

Smurf1976 said:


> It's all a bit like watching someone's health decline slowly but surely or watching the death by a thousand cuts of a business.
> 
> It's a slowly creeping thing but it's plain to see for those willing to open their eyes.



and for the rest of the masses housing is making a recovery nothign to see here good times


----------



## sptrawler (8 October 2019)

againsthegrain said:


> and for the rest of the masses housing is making a recovery nothign to see here good times



It isn't in W.A. you know that big bit of land to the West of Sydney central, unfortunately no one over East has heard of it.
That's why we have to bring in 457 workers.


----------



## againsthegrain (8 October 2019)

sptrawler said:


> It isn't in W.A. you know that big bit of land to the West of Sydney central, unfortunately no one over East has heard of it.
> That's why we have to bring in 457 workers.




I think most of the general clever population only knows Sydney and Melbourne as Australia


----------



## Smurf1976 (8 October 2019)

againsthegrain said:


> I think most of the general clever population only knows Sydney and Melbourne as Australia



I've nothing against the big two cities but I think that is part of the problem. 

The cities and those living in them are often very disconnected from what makes things work beyond the city itself. Big cities anywhere can be very bubble like.


----------



## qldfrog (8 October 2019)

Smurf1976 said:


> I've nothing against the big two cities but I think that is part of the problem.
> 
> The cities and those living in them are often very disconnected from what makes things work beyond the city itself. Big cities anywhere can be very bubble like.



Global warming answers, usage of pesticides etc as obvious examples
Lalaland people dictating their version of the truth based not on knowledge but on number


----------



## SirRumpole (8 October 2019)

Smurf1976 said:


> I've nothing against the big two cities but I think that is part of the problem.
> 
> The cities and those living in them are often very disconnected from what makes things work beyond the city itself. Big cities anywhere can be very bubble like.




Yes, we know what NSW means.


----------



## Jack Aubrey (8 October 2019)

Smurf1976 said:


> Big cities anywhere can be very bubble like.




Luckily I live in Canberra. No bubbles here.  

Long time since I've been west of Dubbo. I did go to Adelaide for week once but I think it was closed.


----------



## Smurf1976 (8 October 2019)

Jack Aubrey said:


> Luckily I live in Canberra. No bubbles here.




There's one you missed up on the hill.

They put a flag on top to mark the location.



> Long time since I've been west of Dubbo.




Dubbo is where I learned that it's possible to cook chicken in a toaster. Don't ask..... 

Back to the economy, I go for a walk quite regularly and something I've noticed is quite a few what look to be "stalled" building projects. An old house has been sold and whoever bought it has demolished it then nothing, the vacant block's just sitting there months later and a couple I see have now been put up for sale "as is" so just the land.


----------



## jbocker (8 October 2019)

Smurf1976 said:


> Dubbo is where I learned that it's possible to cook chicken in a toaster. Don't ask.....




Ahhhh good old *DTC *(Dubbo Toasted Chicken) did you manage to Franchise it Smurf or was the competition from KFC just too much?


----------



## moXJO (9 October 2019)

A large scale building development has stalled down here (900+ properties).
A few unit builds are stopping as well. The more expensive units are sitting on the market and not moving. Retail is a bit of a mixed bag. Seeing prices creep down as well.
Very slow drop.
Small business has cut down on employees. One I frequent went from 4 down to 1.


----------



## Jack Aubrey (9 October 2019)

Just back from a walk around my area (inner city, mixed shops and eateries, mostly hipster) and there were two further "Closing Down Sales". Heavy discounting is obvious, including at the major retailers in the city (DJs discounts on menswear almost got ME to shop!). Mind you, the transition from winter to summer in Canberra is becoming increasingly instantaneous the past few years: overcoat one day, shorts and T-shirt the next.


----------



## SirRumpole (9 October 2019)

Jack Aubrey said:


> Just back from a walk around my area (inner city, mixed shops and eateries, mostly hipster) and there were two further "Closing Down Sales". Heavy discounting is obvious, including at the major retailers in the city (DJs discounts on menswear almost got ME to shop!). Mind you, the transition from winter to summer in Canberra is becoming increasingly instantaneous the past few years: overcoat one day, shorts and T-shirt the next.




Yes, I put my winter clothes away a few days ago , and had to take them out again next day.


----------



## satanoperca (9 October 2019)

People are still buying, just not in traditional bricks and mortar. 
Was down Chapel street, VIC yesterday, lots of for lease signs, but this doesn't surprise me, with rents above $130K pa + outgoings, you have to sell a lot of stuff in an already crowded market place.

The internet has changed many aspects of the retail buying experience: Online shopping is convenient and fast, easy to review sites and offerings.

As a simple example of my experience yesterday. 

14 year old son wanted some new VANS sneakers for skating $130 for something that is produced in China for < $10 a pair. 

So we went on a data scraping exercise together :
1. Google Search allowed us to find all retail bricks and mortars stores that might have these sneakers on sale. Information that was not easily accessible say 10 years ago, would have involved large amounts of time going to each retail shop to see if they where on sale.
2. Ebay - $30 to $130 dollars, now this bought up the question of why such a large price difference for the same product. Copies maybe. 

Ebay has a strict policy of not allowing fake products to be sold. Well that is their policy but it is clearly not enforced and why would they want to loose sales. If the original maker brings it to the attention of ebay, they deflect the consequences onto the merchant.

Now this alone is a very important detail. Traditional bricks and mortar stores could be easily target and prosecuted for selling fake products, however online shopping platforms is a lot harder. 

So we investigate further, how to spot a fake VANS sneaker, this is where it got even more interesting.
Found a great Youtube video and the VANS Wiki page. Funny thing was VANS on website seemed to be selling fakes. The identifiable difference is 2 stitching designs.

So off we go to Platypuss Retail store, on their website they showed the fake VANS design, but in store they had what we believed to be the real VANS design - $130. The staff member was helpful, but my son found a similar VANS sneaker discounted from $120 to $50, so said, how about you buy them and we can get a second pair off ebay for $35 delivered. I agreed and we left the store with a pair of VANS sneakers and order the second pair off Ebay last night.

So what is the moral of the story, in a digital age, consumers have access to greater amounts of information and can just wait until their desired product comes on sale.

My own son then realised, that if he googles around over a period of time, he will never have to pay full retail price.

So I assume we are buying more stuff than ever before, just that we are getting it for cheaper, so most likely spending the same pa as we did years ago. However, where we are spending it has rapidly changed.

So if anyone knows, how are retail figures deteremined?

Does ebay and amazon release their sales figures per product category to the ABS.


----------



## sptrawler (9 October 2019)

I was at our local Coles store the other day, there were about 5 people filling the online order baskets, it looks as though that method of buying food products is increasing.


----------



## Smurf1976 (9 October 2019)

satanoperca said:


> My own son then realised, that if he googles around over a period of time, he will never have to pay full retail price.



We seem to have come to a point where paying full price, for anything, is essentially a "tax" on being in a hurry to buy it.

I won't call it a "lazy tax" because sometimes there are situations where it's perfectly reasonable that someone wants something quickly, it's more important to have it now than to save on the cost of buying it, but for those with more time than money there's no real reason to be paying full price for anything these days.

About the only thing I can think of that someone might actually need and where the price is set in stone is postage. But who posts any significant number of letters these days? 

For anything else, even things like insurance there's effectively a "tax" on not shopping around when it's due for renewal. Biggest mistake anyone can make in 2019 is loyalty to a business - odds are you'll be punished for that these days.


----------



## Smurf1976 (9 October 2019)

sptrawler said:


> I was at our local Coles store the other day, there were about 5 people filling the online order baskets, it looks as though that method of buying food products is increasing.



Agreed although they do seem to have an inefficient way of providing the service.

If it becomes a big enough thing then they could avoid the step of putting the products on shelves in the first place. At some level of scale that would make sense presumably?


----------



## SirRumpole (9 October 2019)

Smurf1976 said:


> Biggest mistake anyone can make in 2019 is loyalty to a business - odds are you'll be punished for that these days.




I found out I could save $700 pa by switching electricity companies.

Reason I haven't done it yet ? Will there be a disconnection charge ? Reconnection charge ? Termination penalty ?

I'll have to check these things out.


----------



## Knobby22 (9 October 2019)

No, no, no to those questions.


----------



## satanoperca (9 October 2019)

I love electricity companies like I luv mobile carriers, talk about trying to confuse the crap out of basic pricing.

Example.
90 Day Account, connection fee has no discount applied.

Which is the best deal?


----------



## Boggo (9 October 2019)

satanoperca said:


> I love electricity companies like I luv mobile carriers, talk about trying to confuse the crap out of basic pricing.
> 
> Example.
> 90 Day Account, connection fee has no discount applied.
> ...




It's more complicated now than it was before the "simplify" requirement.

I have just had a 6.6 kw/hr solar system installed today and now I have the same three variables as above plus a variable feed in tariff, now four variables to contend with 

One of these days the ACCC's testes will drop and all will be ok


----------



## qldfrog (9 October 2019)

Boggo said:


> It's more complicated now than it was before the "simplify" requirement.
> 
> I have just had a 6.6 kw/hr solar system installed today and now I have the same three variables as above plus a variable feed in tariff, now four variables to contend with
> 
> One of these days the ACCC's testes will drop and all will be ok



@Boggo you also forget a solar connection fee.i am not kidding
5 parameters...


----------



## Value Collector (10 October 2019)

Boggo said:


> It's more complicated now than it was before the "simplify" requirement.
> 
> I have just had a 6.6 kw/hr solar system installed today and now I have the same three variables as above plus a variable feed in tariff, now four variables to contend with
> 
> One of these days the ACCC's testes will drop and all will be ok




Make sure you call your energy company and double check they have put you on a solar plan, and you aren't still on your old plan.

I have installed 3 systems this year, 1 on my house and 2 on investment properties, and every single one has had the switching to the solar plan delayed by a month, because they said even though I had the system installed through them, I hadn't specifically called to ask to be put on a solar plan, so I wasn't earning credits.

Even though once I was bitten on the first system, I did call for the other 2 right after they were installed, it never actually got switched, So I suggest calling a few times to make sure.


----------



## Boggo (10 October 2019)

qldfrog said:


> @Boggo you also forget a solar connection fee.i am not kidding
> 5 parameters...




and now a fee to change the meter to a smart meter and they can't do it until the 18th !!



Value Collector said:


> Make sure you call your energy company and double check they have put you on a solar plan, and you aren't still on your old plan.
> 
> I have installed 3 systems this year, 1 on my house and 2 on investment properties, and every single one has had the switching to the solar plan delayed by a month, because they said even though I had the system installed through them, I hadn't specifically called to ask to be put on a solar plan, so I wasn't earning credits.
> 
> Even though once I was bitten on the first system, I did call for the other 2 right after they were installed, it never actually got switched, So I suggest calling a few times to make sure.




Good point, will get on to it as I hadn't really considered that bit. Thanks.


----------



## Humid (13 October 2019)

Getting a lot of calls from guys I worked in construction with from east looking for work over here atm
Still plenty of shutdown work available for anyone with a heartbeat and trade cert


----------



## moXJO (13 October 2019)

Humid said:


> Getting a lot of calls from guys I worked in construction with from east looking for work over here atm
> Still plenty of shutdown work available for anyone with a heartbeat and trade cert



The money still good?  
A lot of the mines and big firms here are pushing minimum rates at contractors.


----------



## Smurf1976 (13 October 2019)

Value Collector said:


> Make sure you call your energy company and double check they have put you on a solar plan, and you aren't still on your old plan.



Also be very sure that the solar isn't switched on before this is sorted if you have a Type 4 or 5 meter (aka "smart meter") installed.

Reason being that depending on the programming it may record your exports to the grid as consumption meaning that not only will you not be receiving payment, you'll in fact be charged for power you send into the grid.

For a Type 6 meter (the old rotating disc with dials on it) it varies between states. Strictly speaking you're not allowed to turn the solar on but some states will turn a blind eye and yes the meter will run backwards without harm. Just don't take it back below the value shown as the reading on your last bill, so don't "clock it", otherwise it'll mess the billing up in a rather spectacular manner.


----------



## PZ99 (13 October 2019)

PZ99 said:


> Let's export some rare earths
> 
> https://www.aussiestockforums.com/posts/1031367/



Here we go 

Australia and the US have been in discussions to form a rare earths joint action plan to open up what has become a concentrated market that's dominated by China.

https://www.sbs.com.au/news/austral...llenge-china-s-hold-on-the-rare-earths-market


----------



## sptrawler (14 October 2019)

PZ99 said:


> Here we go
> 
> Australia and the US have been in discussions to form a rare earths joint action plan to open up what has become a concentrated market that's dominated by China.
> 
> https://www.sbs.com.au/news/austral...llenge-china-s-hold-on-the-rare-earths-market



There could be opportunity for a speculative gamble, but is the upside already factored into the price of companies like Lynas?


----------



## Humid (14 October 2019)

moXJO said:


> The money still good?
> A lot of the mines and big firms here are pushing minimum rates at contractors.




Around $50 flat 11.5 hour days
A lot of companies are just hiring buses and driving the blokes to the next shut a few hours away


----------



## willy1111 (15 October 2019)

Humid said:


> Around $50 flat 11.5 hour days
> A lot of companies are just hiring buses and driving the blokes to the next shut a few hours away




 What qualifications are required?


----------



## Humid (15 October 2019)

willy1111 said:


> What qualifications are required?




Mechanical/electrical trade cert of some description
EWP work @ heights
Confined space training


----------



## moXJO (15 October 2019)

Humid said:


> Around $50 flat 11.5 hour days
> A lot of companies are just hiring buses and driving the blokes to the next shut a few hours away



Good if you're a young guy. Fast way of saving money when you're in the middle of nowhere working basically 12 days.
Crap for families.


----------



## Humid (15 October 2019)

moXJO said:


> Good if you're a young guy. Fast way of saving money when you're in the middle of nowhere working basically 12 days.
> Crap for families.




Quite the opposite I work in a team of 12 and the youngest is 36
Usually divorced or kids grown up already


----------



## moXJO (16 October 2019)

Humid said:


> Quite the opposite I work in a team of 12 and the youngest is 36
> Usually divorced or kids grown up already



I don't know how you guys do it at that age. But if the responsibilities have left the house it must make it easier. 

Do you find the isolation impacts on mental health on long stints?
I would get big jobs but furthest out I'd go is orange,  dubbo and some midge blown town in qld. And we would generally smash those in 3 months tops.

I have too many kids though which was always a consideration.


----------



## SirRumpole (16 October 2019)

Is our government sleepwalking us into the next recession ?

International monetary fund authorities as well as our own Reserve Bank are calling for government stimulus to awaken the economy out of a coma, but they stubbornly stick to their surplus policies.

Having our taxpayers money in the bank is great for the government but it's not doing anything for the man in the street.

https://www.abc.net.au/news/2019-10...nchronised-slowdown-in-global-growth/11605662


----------



## satanoperca (16 October 2019)

SirRumpole said:


> Is our government sleepwalking us into the next recession ?
> 
> International monetary fund authorities as well as our own Reserve Bank are calling for government stimulus to awaken the economy out of a coma, but they stubbornly stick to their surplus policies.
> 
> ...




Are you suggesting that the govnuts go further into debt to try and stimulate a falling economy.

Govnuts debt 2009 $100B, 2019 >$500B. Think we have a problem Houston

Private debt is over the scales and GDP growth is crap.

Spending more is not going to fix the problem


----------



## sptrawler (16 October 2019)

satanoperca said:


> Are you suggesting that the govnuts go further into debt to try and stimulate a falling economy.
> 
> Govnuts debt 2009 $100B, 2019 >$500B. Think we have a problem Houston
> 
> ...



Government spending doesn't seem to be the problem, consumers aren't spending, once the herd has started a stampede for the exits it is hard to turn them.
IMO there are three problems, one the press has been going on about how bad things are for so long, people are $hitting themselves. Two people have so much debt on board they are $shitting themselves. Three because of the first two problems all people are spending money on is comfort food and coffee's, because they are $hitting themselves.
I should have added four, people can't think what to spend on, because they have everything  which also adds to peoples feeling of disappointment.


----------



## SirRumpole (16 October 2019)

satanoperca said:


> Are you suggesting that the govnuts go further into debt to try and stimulate a falling economy.
> 
> Govnuts debt 2009 $100B, 2019 >$500B. Think we have a problem Houston
> 
> ...




You said it yourself, the economy is *failing*.

Keeping doing what you are doing and expecting things to change is a sign of lunacy.

With interest rates so low there would be no better time to borrow money and invest it in something productive.

The best thing they could do imo is invest in energy infrastructure (not just electricity, but oil , gas and liquid fuels like ethanol) and get power prices down. High power prices are killing consumers and businesses and are making us one of the most un-competitive nations on earth.

But no, they would rather sit on a pile of money counting it each day like Scrooge.

Unbelievable.


----------



## Humid (16 October 2019)

moXJO said:


> I don't know how you guys do it at that age. But if the responsibilities have left the house it must make it easier.
> 
> Do you find the isolation impacts on mental health on long stints?
> I would get big jobs but furthest out I'd go is orange,  dubbo and some midge blown town in qld. And we would generally smash those in 3 months tops.
> ...




Compare it with sitting in traffic daily for hours and to work in Perth I would have to do 5x10 hour days and half day Saturday which leaves you with travel about 1 day off a week.
I’m casual atm doing about 10-12 days on followed by 7 off.

I see it the other way....I don’t know how you do it,meals cooked and your room cleaned 
I give up the long stints after Wheatstone it fried me


----------



## sptrawler (16 October 2019)

SirRumpole said:


> You said it yourself, the economy is *failing*.
> 
> Keeping doing what you are doing and expecting things to change is a sign of lunacy.
> 
> ...



At this point in time, I would guess there isn't much the Federal Government has that they can throw money at, other than Snowy 2.0.
The Federal Government has said, they will give billions of dollars to Victoria, to build a tunnel to the airport and to build the East/West link.
The Federal Government has said, they will give billions of dollars to W.A, to continue the Roe Highway extension to Fremantle Harbour.
At the end of the day, it is up to the State Governments to build a lot of this infrastructure to relieve bottlenecks and improve productivity, to lay it at the Federal Governments feet seems a bit opportunistic.


----------



## Humid (16 October 2019)

Only when you live in a Labor state
Maybe West Aussies are grown up enough to choose what to spend our money on


----------



## SirRumpole (16 October 2019)

sptrawler said:


> At this point in time, I would guess there isn't much the Federal Government has that they can throw money at, other than Snowy 2.0.
> The Federal Government has said, they will give billions of dollars to Victoria, to build a tunnel to the airport and to build the East/West link.
> The Federal Government has said, they will give billions of dollars to W.A, to continue the Roe Highway extension to Fremantle Harbour.
> At the end of the day, it is up to the State Governments to build a lot of this infrastructure to relieve bottlenecks and improve productivity, to lay it at the Federal Governments feet seems a bit opportunistic.




It's a matter of priorities isn't it ?

No money for combined cycle gas generators but a lot of money for highways.

???


----------



## sptrawler (16 October 2019)

SirRumpole said:


> It's a matter of priorities isn't it ?
> 
> No money for combined cycle gas generators but a lot of money for highways.
> 
> ???



I agree the electricity shouldn't have been privatised, but now it is, it would be crazy for the Federal Government to get into direct competition with producers existing plant, the problems with dispatch would be enormous. Also already where it isn't completely privatised, the State Governments are involved, so to add the Federal Government into the mix would be diabolical, even if it was only in a funding capacity the private operators would scream blue murder about an unfair playing field.
The difference with Snowy 2 is that it is a new area of generation/pumped storage, so it actually isn't a new entrant in the market as such, it will be buying power to fill the storage and getting paid to discharge the storage. 
So it isn't in direct competition, it is there more as a stabilising medium, when the renewables are over generating Snowy will buy and use their power and when renewables are under generating Snowy will then sell back into the grid.


----------



## sptrawler (16 October 2019)

Humid said:


> Only when you live in a Labor state
> Maybe West Aussies are grown up enough to choose what to spend our money on



Hi Humid, I'm pretty sure all the States have Federal co funding for infrastructure projects, I would guess a lot of the money for Syney's second airport, would be Federally funded.
I don't think it is a Labor/ Liberal thing, a lot of these projects take a huge amount of planning, designing, pre ordering plant and equipment.
Just throwing money at a half arsed plan, is asking for trouble, as has happened in the past.
Just my opinion.


----------



## Humid (16 October 2019)

sptrawler said:


> Hi Humid, I'm pretty sure all the States have Federal co funding for infrastructure projects, I would guess a lot of the money for Syney's second airport, would be Federally funded.
> I don't think it is a Labor/ Liberal thing, a lot of these projects take a huge amount of planning, designing, pre ordering plant and equipment.
> Just throwing money at a half arsed plan, is asking for trouble, as has happened in the past.
> Just my opinion.




I’m pretty sure the Roe extension to Freo was stopped by local Labor in the way of an election so the feds giving money to a project voted down by the people is very much a Lib Labor thing
Btw I’m all for the extension....south of the river road network is 3rd world I don’t know how you live there it’s chaos


----------



## Toyota Lexcen (16 October 2019)

Why not do an 8hr day? Then a "brother" can get a job. More union fees.

Not good taking all the hours, Labor??


----------



## sptrawler (16 October 2019)

Humid said:


> I’m pretty sure the Roe extension to Freo was stopped by local Labor in the way of an election so the feds giving money to a project voted down by the people is very much a Lib Labor thing
> Btw I’m all for the extension....south of the river road network is 3rd world I don’t know how you live there it’s chaos



I agree, even if they go with the Kwinana outer harbour plan, the Roe extension makes sense. I can' understand why they just don't build a bridge/raised highway over the space between North and Bibra lake, then cover it, or even do a tunnel under it, it isn't rocket science. It just seems that politicians can't think outside the box.
There is a big push starting at the moment, to introduce a congestion tax in major Australian cities, Perth will be a nightmare without a ring road, which the Roe extension is a part of.
I think McGowan has been really good, but I can't understand his stand on the Roe extension, just make it a way that doesn't impact the ground.


----------



## Humid (16 October 2019)

Toyota Lexcen said:


> Why not do an 8hr day? Then a "brother" can get a job. More union fees.
> 
> Not good taking all the hours, Labor??




Since Little Johnny Howard’s reign you don’t have much say in working hours but of course if you had a job you would know that you bum


----------



## moXJO (16 October 2019)

Humid said:


> Compare it with sitting in traffic daily for hours and to work in Perth I would have to do 5x10 hour days and half day Saturday which leaves you with travel about 1 day off a week.
> I’m casual atm doing about 10-12 days on followed by 7 off.
> 
> I see it the other way....I don’t know how you do it,meals cooked and your room cleaned
> I give up the long stints after Wheatstone it fried me



I was a bit spoilt in the end. Could work when I wanted and make $2k a day if the work was there. It literally ruined me for a normal job though. I was lucky enough to be one of the only guys being able to fix things no one else could though.

But deadset ruined me for even looking at hourly rates.


----------



## Toyota Lexcen (16 October 2019)

Worse than the buses of workers that come into bust union picket lines.

The 36hr week good for people. 

Seen lots  of riggers and crane drivers loose their families chasing the $$$. Never home, causing accidents on sites. 

Not very caring.


----------



## Humid (16 October 2019)

36 hours a week should just keep you out of poverty and apparently we’re already overpaid 
If you don’t like 12 hour days 
Don’t go mining


----------



## qldfrog (16 October 2019)

SirRumpole said:


> You said it yourself, the economy is *failing*.
> 
> Keeping doing what you are doing and expecting things to change is a sign of lunacy.
> 
> ...



Economy can not always grow, you need a purge from time to time
And better a small recession than an Apocalypse


----------



## Toyota Lexcen (16 October 2019)

How 12hr days, day after day passes a risk assessment is beyond me. 

Maybe Health & Safety officer signing it off.


----------



## satanoperca (16 October 2019)

SirRumpole said:


> You said it yourself, the economy is *failing*.
> 
> Keeping doing what you are doing and expecting things to change is a sign of lunacy.




Agreed, so stop lowering the IR's first thing, the lower the go, the less people spend.
RBA - hello from Pluto but having an inflation target of %2-3 is just lunacy in a deflationary cycle.
Govnuts - if you wanted wages to grow and unemployment to decrease STOP importing so many people as they will get old to and they also need infrastructure.
Govnuts - stop the politics and start governing, people have had enough of your b----lshit and wasting of money.
People of Australia - get yourself better educated about what is happening in the world, understand economics and trade more so you don't complain when things get tough.
The World - don't be frighten of recessions, they are a natural cycle
Govnuts and Australian's - high property prices does not my our society and communities rich


----------



## SirRumpole (16 October 2019)

satanoperca said:


> Agreed, so stop lowering the IR's first thing, the lower the go, the less people spend.
> RBA - hello from Pluto but having an inflation target of %2-3 is just lunacy in a deflationary cycle.
> Govnuts - if you wanted wages to grow and unemployment to decrease STOP importing so many people as they will get old to and they also need infrastructure.
> Govnuts - stop the politics and start governing, people have had enough of your b----lshit and wasting of money.
> ...




I heard today that constant lowering of interest rates is actually spooking people into spending less, ie they think that the economy must be bad to keep cutting rates, so if it's that bad I might lose my job and I'll save all the money I can in case that happens.

The cat is chasing it's tail and it's getting pretty tired. Consumer confidence is what is needed and there isn't much of that about.

Completely agree on importation of people, we don't need more downward pressure on wages.


----------



## satanoperca (16 October 2019)

SirRumpole said:


> With interest rates so low there would be no better time to borrow money and invest it in something productive.
> But no, they would rather sit on a pile of money counting it each day like Scrooge.
> 
> Unbelievable.




Like to discuss this idea and please correct if I am incorrect, trying to understand.

The govnuts want a surplus - proves they are good economic managers.
So what is a surplus :
Govnuts revenues - forecast expenditure for the next financial year = + value, surplus we have

So lets play our your idea and this is obviously an extreme example :

Current GDP is $1300B
Govnuts Revenue approx $500B
Lets say we borrow $1000B for infrastructure spend at 2% Interest on I/O, so $20B in interest goes into the next budget
Govnuts have $499B in expenditure but still want a surplus, they just cut funding to schools, pensioners and education by $20B AND
as magic happens SURPLUS - people of Australia think they have the best economic managers of a country in the world, Liberal down the champs.

Reality we are now in $1300B of debt as a nation, so my childs childs children will still be paying of this debt.

So govnuts spending is an idea to stimulate the economy, but with interest rates low, the money people save or earn will just go into increasing asset prices like property.

They will not risk their money on innovation and startups or the like.


----------



## SirRumpole (16 October 2019)

satanoperca said:


> So govnuts spending is an idea to stimulate the economy, but with interest rates low, the money people save or earn will just go into increasing asset prices like property.




People will reduce their debt rather than spend so the benefits of low interest rates are debatable.


----------



## macca (16 October 2019)

Couple of thoughts on this, the first one is that we should have allowed a mild recession to happen when the GFC hit.

Borrowing money to give away is just silly and shows just how foolish that Govt was. By all means, use the surplus money that was available after the election but to borrow money to have a party is unforgivable.

By having a mild recession when they could blame it on the GFC was quite acceptable politically, Rudd was supposed to be Howard lite and got elected on that policy so when he went feral the polls shot him down.

By not allowing a downturn the next gens were denied the educational experience of doing it tough for a year or so. Consequently many of them are completely unaware of the fact that this is as good as it gets and have no concept of delayed gratification or saving for a rainy day.

Their CCs are maxed permanently so there is no way to increase their spend.

On the other hand, mortgage holders are in two camps, some are meeting their payments, others are behind. I have read that most keep paying the same amount when interest rates fall, some use it as a way of catching up and the others use it to get ahead.

No increase in spending there either.

Something that has changed in the past 20 years is that BBs have had the opportunity to build assets, no wars, no big recessions in Oz, getting old, lets save for our old age.

Unfortunately, the RBA has not worked out that times have changed, for the past 100 years the world has been in debt with real money (gold standard) and people really were struggling.
Not today's "struggling" I mean really struggling, like whole families living in tents, camping in bush, sleeping in garages etc

Now there are just as any people using interest to fund their lifestyle as people in debt, we know that people in debt keep their payments the same (if possible) but the people who are retired adjust their spending to their income.

Every time interest rates go down the economy slows, has been doing it for the past few years, will keep on doing it until the RBA adjusts its thinking to the new world.

0% interest rates quite simply did not work anywhere in the world, Japan has been doing it for years, made no difference. What needs to happen is they need to work with Govt to create new rules and situations that encourage employment.

There should be savings accounts that offer the same rates as inflation, then people will start to spend again.

Of course, the best spenders are those on benefits, give them an extra $5 a week and you can bet it will flow instantly


----------



## SirRumpole (16 October 2019)

What's the current credit card rate, still 18% ? I don't have one so I don't know.

Maybe the banks should return some of that to their depositors.


----------



## Smurf1976 (16 October 2019)

SirRumpole said:


> High power prices are killing consumers and businesses and are making us one of the most un-competitive nations on earth.



Nailed it although I strongly suspect there are other areas of the economy where the same applies.

Anyone know how competitive we are with internet, freight movement (land, sea, air) or water for example?


----------



## SirRumpole (16 October 2019)

Smurf1976 said:


> Nailed it although I strongly suspect there are other areas of the economy where the same applies.
> 
> Anyone know how competitive we are with internet, freight movement (land, sea, air) or water for example?




No. 50 on overall connection speed, 6 for mobile speed.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_countries_by_Internet_connection_speeds


----------



## Toyota Lexcen (16 October 2019)

What is a recession going to do? Everybody keeps calling for a recession across a lot of discussion groups.

Why do we need a recession? How will that benefit the public, world etc?


----------



## qldfrog (16 October 2019)

Recession eliminates the sick companies, give a chance to newcomers,reduce status quo and corruption, and make it u bearable behaviour like billing people for water they do not use, bring back rates to realistic level and bring back the basic values
Shelter, efforts, eating unless recession get twisted into more socialism which is an option in our so called democracies


----------



## satanoperca (16 October 2019)

Toyota Lexcen said:


> What is a recession going to do? Everybody keeps calling for a recession across a lot of discussion groups.
> 
> Why do we need a recession? How will that benefit the public, world etc?




Interesting question, so before I elaborate, how is the current status quo of no recessions working out?

Think of a river system, if you control the flow of water and over time restrict it, Murray Darling what happens, it dies.

Why? as all natural system require a flushing out, you can only hold the shi..t in for so long.

Same with a flood, it washes away the bad and replenishes the system with new, over time.

So what do we have in our economy and the world economies is a build up of sh--it, commonly called debt.

This debt has grown and grown, slowly destabilizing the system, not allowing it to grow again. So with any recession, people and companies go broke, hard times come about, but just like a flood, the debris is removed from the system so it can grow again, short term pain for long term growth.

Most importantly, with hard times comes innovation and determination, something Australians have forgotten about, or the last 3 generations.

It is time we asked ourselves, can the good time last forever, it is something I asked myself when I was high on MDMA (wonderful drug especially when in the company of your preferred sex), answer, NO, good times do last forever.

So you ask, how is a recession good for the public? I would prefer a large cut to the leg than a thousand smalls ones over time.

However, you simple questions shows me you are young and have never experienced a recession.


----------



## Toyota Lexcen (16 October 2019)

Doesn’t sound too good going broke and tough times. 

Sounds like people whinging about things


----------



## Smurf1976 (16 October 2019)

Toyota Lexcen said:


> What is a recession going to do? Everybody keeps calling for a recession across a lot of discussion groups.
> 
> Why do we need a recession? How will that benefit the public, world etc?



I don't think it's so much a case of wanting it as such but rather of seeing it as inevitable and thinking that a modest recession now is better than delaying it and ending up with full blown depression.

It's like saying that if I'm driving east when I should be heading west then the sooner I realise this, the better.


----------



## Smurf1976 (16 October 2019)

Toyota Lexcen said:


> How 12hr days, day after day passes a risk assessment is beyond me.



Did a few years of that in the past. 12 hours a day. 7 days a week just about every week.

Worse things could happen although I wouldn't be hugely keen to do it again, at least not for a prolonged period. Probably wouldn't be allowed these days anyway.

I look on the positive side though, people in far worse situations than that.


----------



## macca (16 October 2019)

Toyota Lexcen said:


> What is a recession going to do? Everybody keeps calling for a recession across a lot of discussion groups.
> 
> Why do we need a recession? How will that benefit the public, world etc?




Hi,

I am not suggesting that a recession is good but to borrow money to artificially keep the party going is wrong. We had good times then the world slowed so we should have adjusted our expectations and lifestyle accordingly. 

Like a lot on here, I have children and now grandchildren and I really do not believe that we should have borrowed money to have a jolly good time and then expect coming generations to repay our "drinks bill"

All the debt created does have to be paid back sometime and that bugs me.

We have a layer in Society that thinks while ever Oz can borrow money we should continue to virtual signal to the world how wonderful we are.

The way the western world is heading with all this VS BS we will be at the mercy of China and the International banks and the future generations will struggle because of the debts they have to repay.


----------



## Smurf1976 (17 October 2019)

macca said:


> We have a layer in Society that thinks while ever Oz can borrow money we should continue to virtual signal to the world how wonderful we are.




I think that's actually a consequence of going so long without a recession.

Reality is that if you're under age 50 and always lived in Australia then no chance you've worked in any profession requiring a tertiary education during a recession and if you're under about 44 then no chance you've worked in any job at all during a recession.

So we've got people now in middle or even senior management roles with no personal experience of a serious downturn. Equally to the point, anyone under 28 wasn't even born last time and people of that age are now moving up in the workforce, buying houses and so on.

So we've got a pretty substantial chunk of the population which won't likely grasp that not only is this as good as it gets but that "normal" is substantially worse than what we have today.

That being so, it's almost a given that they'll be taking all manner of risks blissfully unaware of what the other part of the cycle looks like.


----------



## sptrawler (17 October 2019)

SirRumpole said:


> No. 50 on overall connection speed, 6 for mobile speed.
> 
> https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_countries_by_Internet_connection_speeds



I think I read recently, we are now just behind South Korea, with mobile speed. U.S.A and Switzerland are faster apparently.
https://www.smh.com.au/technology/a...than-its-5g-survey-shows-20190719-p528t1.html


----------



## sptrawler (17 October 2019)

macca said:


> Hi,
> 
> I am not suggesting that a recession is good but to borrow money to artificially keep the party going is wrong. We had good times then the world slowed so we should have adjusted our expectations and lifestyle accordingly.
> 
> ...



Add to that, the media nearly every day is sprouting another cause the Government should be increasing spending on, if it isn't drought relief, welfare payments, infrastructure, basic wage, education, health, it is on mitigating climate change.
Is there any wonder people are confused, they are being told Australia is in a lot of debt and there is a likely hood of recession. Then in the next breath they are being told the Government should be spending more money and that the Government shouldn't have given the tax cuts, because we can't afford them.
Talk about mixed messages. 
Is there any wonder people aren't spending, the best thing that could happen, would be the papers to go broke. IMO


----------



## basilio (17 October 2019)

It's interesting to hear people talk about individuals being responsible for the huge indebtedness weighing down our economy.

It seems that, in fcat, it is companies which have the greatest exposure to a recession and if things go south many corporations will be vulnerable.
Of course that means all their employees will also be on the block as well as shareholders, banks and ex employees with company pensions

* Global economy faces $19tn corporate debt timebomb, warns IMF *
Update on markets lists eight leading countries, including US, China and UK, as vulnerable

Low interest rates are encouraging companies to take on a level of debt that risks becoming a $19tn (£15tn) timebomb in the event of another global recession, the International Monetary Fund has said.

In its half-yearly update on the state of the world’s financial markets, the IMF said that almost 40% of the corporate debt in eight leading countries – the US, China, Japan, Germany, Britain, France, Italy and Spain – would be impossible to service if there was a downturn half as serious as that of a decade ago.

The IMF noted that the stimulus provided by central banks in both developed and developing countries had the side-effect of encouraging firms to borrow more, even though many would have trouble paying it back.

*  IMF haunted by fears that history might be about to repeat itself  *
Read more
Officials at the Washington-based organisation fear that the buildup of debt makes the global financial system highly vulnerable and are telling member states not to repeat the mistake of the early 2000s, when warning signs of a possible market meltdown were ignored.

The IMF said share prices in the US and Japan appeared to be overvalued, while the credit spreads in bond markets – the compensation demanded by investors against risk – seemed to be too low, given the state of the global economy.

Tobias Adrian and Fabio Natalucci, two senior IMF officials responsible for the Global Financial Stability Report, said: “A sharp, sudden tightening in financial conditions could unmask these vulnerabilities and put pressures on asset price valuations.”

In a blogpost published alongside the GFSR, Adrian and Natalucci noted: “Corporations in eight major economies are taking on more debt and their ability to service it is weakening.

“We look at the potential impact of a material economic slowdown – one that is half as severe as the global financial crisis of 2007-08. Our conclusion is sobering: debt owed by firms unable to cover interest expenses with earnings, which we call corporate debt at risk, could rise to $19tn. That is almost 40% of total corporate debt in the economies we studied.”
https://www.theguardian.com/busines...-faces-19tn-corporate-debt-timebomb-warns-imf


----------



## qldfrog (18 October 2019)

basilio said:


> It's interesting to hear people talk about individuals being responsible for the huge indebtedness weighing down our economy.
> 
> It seems that, in fcat, it is companies which have the greatest exposure to a recession and if things go south many corporations will be vulnerable.
> Of course that means all their employees will also be on the block as well as shareholders, banks and ex employees with company pensions
> ...



You are right Basilio but companies as people do what the government want them to do, except in the us, here in europe end japan, we go toward negative interest rates
It is sensible to get debt under these conditions
I am old school and do not do it, but if i can get loan at below 2pc, i should do it and buy stuff be it land RE factories shares or even my own shares as a corporate
Let's not blame individuals or corporations for the federal Banks and politicians madness


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## sptrawler (18 October 2019)

basilio said:


> It's interesting to hear people talk about individuals being responsible for the huge indebtedness weighing down our economy.
> f



I can't wait to see who is going to be responsible for this evolving problem, not the spender of course, probably those who lent them the money.

https://thewest.com.au/lifestyle/dr...-business-to-bring-in-afterpay-ng-b881357083z


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## Jack Aubrey (19 October 2019)

I'm not an economist but I do think the personal/housing side of the the national "debt problem" may be a bit overblown and that a lot of financial "journalists" are just being doomsayers. Stephen Koukoulas is one commentator who has been pretty spot on with his (contrarian) views about Australia's economy over the past decade and he published this piece on household debt last week:

https://www.thekouk.com/item/543-the-truth-about-our-debt.html

To me, for Australia at least, it is the unemployment and underemployment rates that need to be watched carefully - and they seem to be holding despite the obvious downturn in some sectors.  (I am concerned at the way these things are defined and measured as I think we now "hide" a large amount of both un- and under-employment.)

It is interesting to see how the "debt bomb" issue is being discussed in other countries. The (very) old idea of a "debt jubilee" is getting traction in the UK and USA and at least one of the Democratic candidates for the 2020 Presidential Election is canvassing cancelling student (uni) debt, which is out of control in the US.  I'm not convinced by the arguments one way the other on debt cancellation but here is a quite balanced discussion of the background and issues:

https://theconversation.com/the-deb...t-solution-to-a-modern-financial-crisis-11816


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## sptrawler (20 October 2019)

Interesting read Jack, the debt issue in reality can't be resolved in a normal balance sheet way, there just isn't enough GDP, liquidity etc to balance it, so at some stage some form of reset will be required like a debt consolidation on currencies.
Where each currency is rebalanced and revalued against the standard, according to the Countries outstanding debt obligation i.e money printing, I just can't see any other way, of writing everything back to a sensible balanced 'norm', where the currencies actually have any credibility.
The current modus operandi, just appears to be if the Country looks like its economy is turning to $hit, just 'print money' and spend your way out of the problem. This has to undermine the whole integrity of the fiat system IMO.
It will be interesting to see how it all pans out IMO.


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## SirRumpole (20 October 2019)

Jack Aubrey said:


> (I am concerned at the way these things are defined and measured as I think we now "hide" a large amount of both un- and under-employment.)




The obvious factor is that only one hour of work per week is sufficient to regard someone as employed and therefore not contributing to unemployment. This is a historical measurement but it produces a distorted view or reality and the real situation must be much worse.

There must be a lot of people , probably middle aged, out of work, not able to find another job that are too proud to get Newstart and are living on their savings.

They may not be a problem for the government at the moment because they are hidden but they could be a significant voting block in the future.


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## Smurf1976 (20 October 2019)

SirRumpole said:


> They may not be a problem for the government at the moment because they are hidden



I suspect there's rather a lot of economic things which exist but which are hidden by various means either intentional or unintentional.

Economic statistics such as debt levels often obscure the detail since consumers will act based on their personal situation, not a statistical average, and most people are in practice not average.


----------



## sptrawler (20 October 2019)

Smurf1976 said:


> I suspect there's rather a lot of economic things which exist but which are hidden by various means either intentional or unintentional.
> .



Well a mate I was talking to on the weekend, used to be a graphic artist, but chucked it in to drive uber.
Well he has change from uber taxi, to uber eats and can't believe who are using the service.


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## Tyler Durden (21 October 2019)

Is an increase in crime rate a symptom of a poorer economy?

Been hearing a bit lately about an increase in thefts at a supermarket my friend works in, and also my parents' place which has always been a safe suburb has had two attempted break ins recently.


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## SirRumpole (21 October 2019)

Tyler Durden said:


> Is an increase in crime rate a symptom of a poorer economy?
> 
> Been hearing a bit lately about an increase in thefts at a supermarket my friend works in, and also my parents' place which has always been a safe suburb has had two attempted break ins recently.




Was at Bunnings the other day and asked an attendant why all the self service checkouts were closed.

She said that they need people to man the self service checkouts because people "forget" to scan a few items on the way out.

Maybe people can't afford the things they want or maybe they just enjoy cheating and getting away with something.


----------



## Jack Aubrey (21 October 2019)

Tyler Durden said:


> Is an increase in crime rate a symptom of a poorer economy?
> 
> Been hearing a bit lately about an increase in thefts at a supermarket my friend works in, and also my parents' place which has always been a safe suburb has had two attempted break ins recently.




Not sure about "poorer economy" leading directly to crime, but research suggests growing inequality does. Welfare "crackdowns" can't do anything else other than lead to rising crime IMO. People gotta eat.

As for minor pilfering via self-service checkouts, I think that's just opportunistic and a bit of a middle-finger salute to businesses that replace people with machines. It will probably pass (or the machines will get smarter).  I'm sure there's a bit of desperation crime too - as one of my son's unemployed friends puts it "at a self-service checkout, when you're broke, everything is a potato". (Not an endorsement)


----------



## PZ99 (21 October 2019)

Tyler Durden said:


> Is an increase in crime rate a symptom of a poorer economy?
> 
> Been hearing a bit lately about an increase in thefts at a supermarket my friend works in, and also my parents' place which has always been a safe suburb has had two attempted break ins recently.



I put it down to greater financial dependence for drugs at the moment.


----------



## Value Collector (21 October 2019)

Tyler Durden said:


> Is an increase in crime rate a symptom of a poorer economy?
> 
> Been hearing a bit lately about an increase in thefts at a supermarket my friend works in, and also my parents' place which has always been a safe suburb has had two attempted break ins recently.




Not necessarily a poorer economy, but maybe certain demographics slice of the pie has shrunk, even though the pie has grown.

The economic pie will always be cut and distributed 3 ways.

1, to those providing the labour

2, to those providing capital

3, those funded by taxing 1 & 2.

The general trend is that the economy is growing to be more capital intensive and less labour intensive.

Meaning machines, equipment and software is reducing increasing the output while also reducing the need for labour.

Eg, 1 guy in a $20 million mega digger can move more dirt than 100 guys with shovels, so more of the profits of a mine flow to the shareholders who paid for the mega digger than they do to labour (although that 1 guy operating the digger earns a lot more than any one guy with a shovel).

—————

So we will see continued stories of unskilled workers suffering and joining doles lines, as the move from 1’s to 3’s.

But, over all the economy will grow, and us capital owners that have made wise investments will continue to earn a bigger section of the pie.

————-
Bottom line is, teach your kids to invest, or they will be fighting to claim a shrinking section of pie.


----------



## SirRumpole (21 October 2019)

Value Collector said:


> Bottom line is, teach your kids to invest, or they will be fighting to claim a shrinking section of pie.




That assumes they have money to invest in the first place.

If they are forced into a subsistence lifestyle in the gig economy where most of their income goes to necessary expenditure then they won't be investing much.


----------



## SirRumpole (21 October 2019)

Value Collector said:


> But, over all the economy will grow, and us capital owners that have made wise investments will continue to earn a bigger section of the pie.




How can an economy grow when the majority have less money to spend and buy the goods that the capital owners produce ?

This is why we are seeing reducing consumer confidence and sod all growth in most of the Western economies.


----------



## Value Collector (21 October 2019)

SirRumpole said:


> That assumes they have money to invest in the first place.
> 
> If they are forced into a subsistence lifestyle in the gig economy where most of their income goes to necessary expenditure then they won't be investing much.




There are still plenty of good jobs to be had, and plenty of opportunities to create your own jobs providing services to people with money.

The trick is to spend less than you earn, even if you don’t earn much, and use these savings to slowly build a capital base, and become an investor.

So many children grow up being taught about how labour can make money, few ever learn about how investing makes money.


----------



## Value Collector (21 October 2019)

SirRumpole said:


> How can an economy grow when the majority have less money to spend and buy the goods that the capital owners produce ?
> 
> This is why we are seeing reducing consumer confidence and sod all growth in most of the Western economies.




The economy is growing when more goods and services are produced than the year before.

There is no rule that says this pile of goods and services needs to be distributed equally to everyone.

Eg a factory that produced $1 billion of 747 commercial jets could switch to producing $1.1 Billion of private jets and the economy has grown by 10%.

Sure less people will be flying in total, but a greater number will be flying in private jets, hence a small group a simply taking a larger piece of pie.


----------



## moXJO (21 October 2019)

Value Collector said:


> The economy is growing when more goods and services are produced than the year before.



I understand the principal of what you are saying. But isn't money lost from the system when corporations send profits to low tax countries?


----------



## Value Collector (21 October 2019)

moXJO said:


> I understand the principal of what you are saying. But isn't money lost from the system when corporations send profits to low tax countries?




 The system is global, the economy is global.

Where ever the money goes to be taxed, it will end up back in 1 of 3 places.

1, share holders pockets and spent (where ever they are)

2, invested by the company (wages, capital investment)

3, Sit in a bank some where and get loaned out to others across the globe.


----------



## SirRumpole (21 October 2019)

Value Collector said:


> The economy is growing when more goods and services are produced than the year before.
> 
> There is no rule that says this pile of goods and services needs to be distributed equally to everyone.




More goods and services will be produced each year while global population is increasing.

But deep down I think we all know that this is a Ponzi scheme. 

Global population can't increase indefinitely and maintain living standards. There has to be an equilibrium sometime and that will involve a redistribution of wealth from capital to consumption to keep the global economy in balance.


----------



## SirRumpole (21 October 2019)

A good analysis of the current state of the economy.

https://www.abc.net.au/news/2019-10-21/can-the-rba-talk-us-into-a-recovery/11621632


----------



## satanoperca (21 October 2019)

How about instead of dropping interest rates which after many, the general population have released is not a good sign, increase them sending a sign that things are looking up.

As for unemployment rates, they can always be manipulated. If you have had 1 hour of work over the last decade you are considered employed - fixed that problem, time to move on to the next.

Make politicians accountable for their actions and not just at the polls, hit their super.


----------



## sptrawler (23 October 2019)

Things are looking o.k for online retailers.
https://www.smh.com.au/business/com...ring-first-quarter-sales-20191023-p533bt.html

 As we have said before, unless you are selling something that must be bought immediately, a lot of people are buying online cheaper and waiting for it to arrive at the door.
I guess that is why Westfarmers just bought catch.com, the writing is on the wall.
Things are definitely changing, shopping centres will become social hubs, that mainly provide food and entertainment. IMO
It wont happen overnight, but it will happen.


----------



## Value Collector (24 October 2019)

SirRumpole said:


> Global population can't increase indefinitely and maintain living standards. There has to be an equilibrium sometime and that will involve a redistribution of wealth from capital to consumption to keep the global economy in balance.




While agree that the population can’t increase indefinitely.

The claim that wealth must be redistributed from capital to consumption is completely false.

The growing population will require and ever increasing amount of capital investment to support itself.

Eg, 
houses need to be replaced with apartment buildings.

Open crop fields need to be replaced with sheltered greenhouses, and netting.

More transport needs to be built, more water, more shops, etc etc

The trend has been the same for 1000 years, nothing is new, it’s all the same story since Adam before Adam smith wrote the wealth of nations.


----------



## SirRumpole (24 October 2019)

Value Collector said:


> While agree that the population can’t increase indefinitely.
> 
> The claim that wealth must be redistributed from capital to consumption is completely false.
> 
> ...




Time will tell, but world population is increasing while most economies aren't growing at all, going backwards or growing very slowly.

The world has been living on debt for a long time and there has to be a reckoning at some point.


----------



## SirRumpole (24 October 2019)

SirRumpole said:


> Time will tell, but world population is increasing while most economies aren't growing at all, going backwards or growing very slowly.
> 
> The world has been living on debt for a long time and there has to be a reckoning at some point.




There are a lot of empty apartments in Australia at the moment. Why build them if people aren't buying ?


----------



## qldfrog (24 October 2019)

@SirRumpole 
Look at Japan
Not a bad place to live in, but personal consumption is low, per capita income is low and it is still an economic superpower

Giving more money to the average Joe will lead to indeed higher meths price, higher pokies income and beer alcohol sales ,tobaccos, jetski and bigger American pickup Monster on the road with higher debt bill for the spoiled rotten kids
At the same time, more taxes on business entrepreneurs
Not that great a recipe for the future

We have had 40y of "relance par la consommation" in France
A broke socialist paradise...want to swap with australian living?
You can only release the purse string when having a balance budget
Aka Howard years
Now it is time to tighten the purse and transfer expenses into missing infrastructure
Road rail and port land water


----------



## qldfrog (24 October 2019)

I forgot energy


----------



## SirRumpole (24 October 2019)

qldfrog said:


> @SirRumpole
> Look at Japan
> Not a bad place to live in, but personal consumption is low, per capita income is low and it is still an economic superpower
> 
> ...




Yep, so wind back the latest tax cuts and invest in power stations ?


----------



## Smurf1976 (24 October 2019)

Value Collector said:


> The growing population will require and ever increasing amount of capital investment to support itself.
> 
> Eg,
> houses need to be replaced with apartment buildings.




I see your point but my observation is that whether or not this represents progress is very much a matter of personal opinion.

Purely anecdotal but my observation is that there’s quite a few living in apartments who’d rather live in a house, relative costs being the only reason they’re not doing so.

Obviously that’s not everyone but there seems to be quite a few. That then brings up the question about growth not benefiting the current population etc.


----------



## qldfrog (24 October 2019)

For the sake of Australia, reduce taxes, reduce spendings and increase investment in infrastructure
Hand out are not investment be it for business lobbies or dole /pensioners
All expenses of a government should be investment minded
Bring refugees if ROI is positive, none otherwise, pay dole to a level ROI is positive aka less crime rate, more chances of becoming productive individuals for the society
If you do that, there is less taxes on individuals who choose then to donate for ndis equivalent
Obviously, there is no black and white solutions, but that is the idea
Under what principle should 50pc of the population many not paying taxes decide to tax me and where they want my taxes to go
Usually...to them
Democracy is fundamentally flawn, even if it was working as stated..which is not..see brexit Remember that the first democracies only counted people who were actually tax payers 
Citoyens in France and implied rights and duties
Your solution is in line with the tax 49pc, be elected by the 51pc of the socialists
And 50y later you have a wonderful sxxhole patchwork of communities hatred with a few alpha new rulers


----------



## Smurf1976 (24 October 2019)

SirRumpole said:


> Yep, so wind back the latest tax cuts and invest in power stations ?



With any infrastructure it’s not just building it but making sure we build the right things in the right places.

All the solar farms are shut down in SA right now due to transmission constraints. There’s 225 MW, or 225,000 kilowatts for those less familiar with the measurements, going to waste right at this moment. It sure isn’t the first time and it won’t be the last.

That’s just an example, I won’t derail the thread into a solar power one, but if we’re going to build all this stuff then getting it right technically so it can actually be used is critical if there’s to be any real value obtained from it.

Same with roads, rail etc. No point having things which don’t fit with other things we’ve already got or which fall apart etc.


----------



## qldfrog (24 October 2019)

And it should be economically sensible to build taking into account on going maintenance, repairs etc
Look at all the waste for Olympic stadiums etc 
We have qld gov looking to host olympics.  Seriously?


----------



## SirRumpole (24 October 2019)

qldfrog said:


> For the sake of Australia, *reduce taxes*, reduce spendings and increase investment in infrastructure




But that is just giving money back to the average Joe to spend on meths, alcohol, tobacco and gambling.


----------



## qldfrog (24 October 2019)

The average Joe does not pay net tax, the average Joe is on welfare
Could not find by quick search better than that"
Modelling by the National Centre for Social and Economic Modelling (and actually reported last year in the Australian) found that 67% of those under 65 in 2015 were net tax payers, but this dropped to 52% when you included those aged over 65:"
So 4y ago, only 52pc were net rax payers, would bet worse now
Happy to be proven wrong
I summarise as
Most Australians do not pay tax but are on welfare
That can include childcare benefits, neg gearing etc or pension, does not mean dole , or ranting on invalidity 
But numbers are numbers


----------



## Jack Aubrey (24 October 2019)

qldfrog said:


> Most Australians do not pay tax but are on welfare.




*....or are being supported by someone else!*  These sorts of numbers and assumptions are meaningless as some families still have only one "taxpayer" and the participation rate in Australia is (a relatively high) 66% (working age people in a job or looking for work).  Interesting that you include neg. gearing as "welfare" as that would put most businesses in the "welfare recipient" category as well.  What about the multinationals and mining companies who pay no, or very little, tax on profits which are then sent to tax havens? Ikea, Google, Facebook and Whitehaven Coal could fund all our "welfare" with a Buffet tax on their exported untaxed profits.  Adani has received promises of Govt. handouts and waivers worth $4Billion before a gram of coal has been dug up and Clive Palmer has now put in his invoice for his "good work" during the recent election.  Plenty of bludgers to get your teeth into there.


----------



## satanoperca (24 October 2019)

Jack Aubrey said:


> *....or are being supported by someone else!*  These sorts of numbers and assumptions are meaningless as some families still have only one "taxpayer" and the participation rate in Australia is (a relatively high) 66% (working age people in a job or looking for work).  Interesting that you include neg. gearing as "welfare" as that would put most businesses in the "welfare recipient" category as well.  What about the multinationals and mining companies who pay no, or very little, tax on profits which are then sent to tax havens? Ikea, Google, Facebook and Whitehaven Coal could fund all our "welfare" with a Buffet tax on their exported untaxed profits.  Adani has received promises of Govt. handouts and waivers worth $4Billion before a gram of coal has been dug up and Clive Palmer has now put in his invoice for his "good work" during the recent election.  Plenty of bludgers to get your teeth into there.




IKEA - everyone loves to support this company that largely killed of Australian manufactured furniture. 
How simple maths :
*Ikea*: $11m *tax paid* on $1bn of revenue (its first *tax paid* in the last three years).Dec 7, 2017 So for easy calculations that declared $33m in profit. 30% tax rate. 3.3% margin on sales, seems a little slim to me.
I am guess a large amount of profit shifting overseas. Find me an Australia manufacturer who can run on 3.3% margins and hang around.

*Google* had a corporate *tax* expense of only $26.5 million in *Australia* and Facebook *paid* $11.8 million despite earning billions in advertising revenue. *Google* is still fighting the ATO over a *tax* bill it was hit with in 2017 and has funds to cover it.


----------



## moXJO (24 October 2019)

Is that $1bill in oz revenue?


----------



## SirRumpole (24 October 2019)

Jack Aubrey said:


> *....or are being supported by someone else!*  These sorts of numbers and assumptions are meaningless as some families still have only one "taxpayer" and the participation rate in Australia is (a relatively high) 66% (working age people in a job or looking for work).  Interesting that you include neg. gearing as "welfare" as that would put most businesses in the "welfare recipient" category as well.  What about the multinationals and mining companies who pay no, or very little, tax on profits which are then sent to tax havens? Ikea, Google, Facebook and Whitehaven Coal could fund all our "welfare" with a Buffet tax on their exported untaxed profits.  Adani has received promises of Govt. handouts and waivers worth $4Billion before a gram of coal has been dug up and Clive Palmer has now put in his invoice for his "good work" during the recent election.  Plenty of bludgers to get your teeth into there.




Put an export tax on all our minerals, gas, and agricultural products. That should solve the budget and infrastructure problems .


----------



## qldfrog (24 October 2019)

What matters is the majority of Australians do not pay tax overall so a party called tax the bastards could win all elections by promising to tax 49pc of the population at 90pc and give 10k per year to the 51pc of the others who will be their electorate
Democracy is so flawn
This is  very simplistic but please tell me what i am missing
Corporate tax is out of the equation there, of course they should but do not pay their fair share and i do not blame them when our corporate tax rate is one of the highest in the world
They can move, few individuals do, or at least not the mass
In a me me society with no national interest and selfishness, you can not loose elections
Unrealistic? Just study France a place i know, or the labour platform


----------



## Value Collector (24 October 2019)

SirRumpole said:


> Time will tell, but world population is increasing while most economies aren't growing at all, going backwards or growing very slowly.
> 
> The world has been living on debt for a long time and there has to be a reckoning at some point.




The Net debt of the world is $0.


----------



## Value Collector (24 October 2019)

SirRumpole said:


> Put an export tax on all our minerals, gas, and agricultural products. That should solve the budget and infrastructure problems .




Why would we want to inflict a tariff on ourselves?

We already charge 
1, mining companies royalties 
2, mining companies company tax
3, miners income tax

The revenue received from the mining industry already is the largest income for the government.


----------



## Value Collector (24 October 2019)

Smurf1976 said:


> I see your point but my observation is that whether or not this represents progress is very much a matter of personal opinion.
> 
> Purely anecdotal but my observation is that there’s quite a few living in apartments who’d rather live in a house, relative costs being the only reason they’re not doing so.
> 
> Obviously that’s not everyone but there seems to be quite a few. That then brings up the question about growth not benefiting the current population etc.




If people don’t want population growth, then they should stop having children.

How many of the people that complain about population growth have added to the problem by having children?


----------



## SirRumpole (24 October 2019)

Value Collector said:


> If people don’t want population growth, then they should stop having children.
> 
> How many of the people that complain about population growth have added to the problem by having children?




There is also immigration which we didn't ask for.


----------



## SirRumpole (24 October 2019)

Value Collector said:


> The revenue received from the mining industry already is the largest income for the government.




Compared to the value of the assets the tax is sod all, and a lot of it is avoided anyway.


----------



## PZ99 (24 October 2019)

Value Collector said:


> The Net debt of the world is $0.



Only if everybody is dead. Otherwise it's $184 trillion.


----------



## satanoperca (24 October 2019)

Value Collector said:


> Why would we want to inflict a tariff on ourselves?
> 
> We already charge
> 1, mining companies royalties
> ...



1. Agree, raise the higher, it is the property of the country
2. They don't pay any tax
1&2 go to making a few very wealthy without paying any tax on resources that are Australians.

3. Take the miners less, they are workers.

The big four banks (Commonwealth Bank, Westpac, NAB, and ANZ), two biggest miners (BHP Billiton, Rio Tinto), two supermarket giants (Wesfarmers, Woolworths), and Telstra and AMP Limited paid a combined $20.8bn in corporate tax in 2016-17 – representing 45% of all corporate tax paid in Australia.




So put in perspective, do you think you could find enough employees who earnt $15B like Qantas and paid no tax.

I look at this list and say 
F---K
Qantas
Exxon
Glencore
Origin - actually f---k them even more
Shell
etc etc etc


----------



## satanoperca (24 October 2019)

Value Collector said:


> If people don’t want population growth, then they should stop having children.
> 
> How many of the people that complain about population growth have added to the problem by having children?



This is the most bulls--hit comment that you have ever written, are you high, pissed or just otherwise incapable of making a valid statement.

I thought Australia was getting dumber, now I believe it


----------



## Value Collector (24 October 2019)

satanoperca said:


> This is the most bulls--hit comment that you have ever written, are you high, pissed or just otherwise incapable of making a valid statement.
> 
> I thought Australia was getting dumber, now I believe it




Are you saying that population growth has nothing to do with people having children???


----------



## qldfrog (24 October 2019)

satanoperca said:


> 1. Agree, raise the higher, it is the property of the country
> 2. They don't pay any tax
> 1&2 go to making a few very wealthy without paying any tax on resources that are Australians.
> 
> ...



always so funny that my one man company pay taxes much higher than Glencore with income well below 6 figures


----------



## Value Collector (24 October 2019)

satanoperca said:


> 1. Agree, raise the higher, it is the property of the country
> 2. They don't pay any tax
> 1&2 go to making a few very wealthy without paying any tax on resources that are Australians.
> 
> ...




Take a look at the cashflow statements of Bhp Fmg And rio, and you will see they pay ship loads of tax, as do their employees


----------



## Value Collector (24 October 2019)

SirRumpole said:


> There is also immigration which we didn't ask for.




Do you forget you are here as the result of immigration? I don’t think the indigenous Australians asked your family to move here. (No doubt at some stage your family decided to leave the overpopulated shores of Europe and head for a land of opportunity and “boundless plains to share”)

We are one of the least densely populated countries on earth, it’s a bit rich to complain about us being over populated, when almost every other nation on earth has populations living more densely than us.

I see absolutely no difference between an immigrant wanting to move here and someone wanting to have a child.

Infact allowing the existing global population to spread out is probably less troublesome than breeding more humans into existence.


----------



## SirRumpole (24 October 2019)

Value Collector said:


> Do you forget you are here as the result of immigration? I don’t think the indigenous Australians asked your family to move here. (No doubt at some stage your family decided to leave the overpopulated shores of Europe and head for a land of opportunity and “boundless plains to share”)
> 
> We are one of the least densely populated countries on earth, it’s a bit rich to complain about us being over populated, when almost every other nation on earth has populations living more densely than us.
> 
> ...




What was good before isn't necessarily good now. Yours is a false argument. We don't NEED more people at this time because their is less demand for labour with mechanisation and globalisation.

As for population density, do you want to turn us into Shanghai or another Asian slum city ?


----------



## Smurf1976 (24 October 2019)

Value Collector said:


> We are one of the least densely populated countries on earth




I think there's a difference here between the country as a whole versus the cities particularly Sydney and Melbourne.

For whatever reason, be it supply and demand or something else, land in Sydney is seriously expensive these days and it's not hugely better in Melbourne. That high cost is then forcing otherwise non-preferred courses of action and costs.

What, exactly, does Sydney gain by having 5 million people instead of having 3 million? And how will it gain by having 8 million?

I could be wrong, I don't have hard data, but the way it looks to me is that there's an optimum size for a city and that the big two have passed that. Further growth seems to be leading to disproportionate increases in costs, both direct financial ones and in terms of time etc, for things like transport, water, housing and so on.

Instead of one city of 8 million, would two cities of 4 million each not be better?


----------



## SirRumpole (24 October 2019)

Value Collector said:


> We are one of the least densely populated countries on earth, it’s a bit rich to complain about us being over populated, when almost every other nation on earth has populations living more densely than us.




35% of the country is desert and 70% is classified as arid. We can only support a certain number of people and we are getting close to that number.


----------



## qldfrog (24 October 2019)

Value Collector said:


> Do you forget you are here as the result of immigration? I don’t think the indigenous Australians asked your family to move here. (No doubt at some stage your family decided to leave the overpopulated shores of Europe and head for a land of opportunity and “boundless plains to share”)
> 
> We are one of the least densely populated countries on earth, it’s a bit rich to complain about us being over populated, when almost every other nation on earth has populations living more densely than us.
> 
> ...



This means you see all cultures as equals and beneficial to mankind so 2 Pakistanese kids in a slum as good or bad for mankind as 2 kids in Norway
Nice in theory but you need a bit more life experience to see the real world reality
But true :migration or birth still count as one extra Mouth
With proper selective migration, you bring in above average people, education, health and skills but this has been finished a long time ago.
Now migration is just more people to push the RE bubble


----------



## tinhat (24 October 2019)

Value Collector said:


> Do you forget you are here as the result of immigration? I don’t think the indigenous Australians asked your family to move here. (No doubt at some stage your family decided to leave the overpopulated shores of Europe and head for a land of opportunity and “boundless plains to share”)
> 
> We are one of the least densely populated countries on earth, it’s a bit rich to complain about us being over populated, when almost every other nation on earth has populations living more densely than us.
> 
> ...




Not enough water. Life needs light (&/or heat), water, air and earth.


----------



## Value Collector (25 October 2019)

SirRumpole said:


> 35% of the country is desert and 70% is classified as arid. We can only support a certain number of people and we are getting close to that number.




You could plonk another city the size of Sydney in coffee harbor easy, 


We have heaps of space up and down Australia’s coastline forget about the arid areas.


----------



## Value Collector (25 October 2019)

tinhat said:


> Not enough water. Life needs light (&/or heat), water, air and earth.




We have heaps of water, just not enough infrastructure, with water recycling we could probably triple out available water.


----------



## Value Collector (25 October 2019)

qldfrog said:


> This means you see all cultures as equals and beneficial to mankind so 2 Pakistanese kids in a slum as good or bad for mankind as 2 kids in Norway
> Nice in theory but you need a bit more life experience to see the real world reality
> But true :migration or birth still count as one extra Mouth
> With proper selective migration, you bring in above average people, education, health and skills but this has been finished a long time ago.
> Now migration is just more people to push the RE bubble




I just take a more global approach to my thinking.

I don’t see that Pakistani kid born into a slum as being any less deserving of enjoying the Aussie life as a child that a couple here decided to give birth too.

So I see it as kind of a responsibility to accept migrants, and help share the load.

We better or worse we are all stuck here on “space ship earth”, if 0.3% of us try and hog 10% of the space and resource on this space ship, you can expect a mutiny.


----------



## Value Collector (25 October 2019)

SirRumpole said:


> 35% of the country is desert and 70% is classified as arid. We can only support a certain number of people and we are getting close to that number.




28% of China is desert, 

The Middle East is is mostly desert has 10 times the population of australia.

What’s your point?


----------



## SirRumpole (25 October 2019)

Value Collector said:


> 28% of China is desert,
> 
> The Middle East is is mostly desert has 10 times the population of australia.
> 
> What’s your point?




The point is that the more people you cram together the less your standard of living is.

If you want to live in an over populated slum, then go and live in the Middle East.

Why should we reduce our living standards just because other countries can't control their population growth ?

Australia is not the world's dumping ground.


----------



## Value Collector (25 October 2019)

SirRumpole said:


> The point is that the more people you cram together the less your standard of living is.





SirRumpole said:


> If you want to live in an over populated slum, then go and live in the Middle East.
> 
> Why should we reduce our living standards just because other countries can't control their population growth ?
> 
> Australia is not the world's dumping ground.




The human population has been spreading out since we walked out of Africa 100,000 years ago.

I didn’t say I was in favor of growing the global population, I am actually for reducing it over time, I just think it’s a bit crazy (and probably immoral), not to share the land and resources we have here.

Wasn’t Australia born as England’s “dumping ground”?

Saying you want to let a young family continue living in a slum in Bangladesh, because having an extra family home in Coffs Harbour or bundaberg would cramp the style of the locals seems crazy to me.

Hell, I don’t have anymore loyalty to the residents of Coffs Harbour than I do Cuba, both are strangers to me, and I want both to live well, I am not going to say the Coffs Harbour residents should reduce their standard of living by 1% to help lift some else’s by 99%


----------



## SirRumpole (25 October 2019)

Value Collector said:


> Hell, I don’t have anymore loyalty to the residents of Coffs Harbour than I do Cuba, both are strangers to me, and I want both to live well, I am not going to say the Coffs Harbour residents should reduce their standard of living by 1% to help lift some else’s by 99%




Yes well a lot of people say that until it personally affects them.

Like their property getting resumed for a new highway or apartment blocks or imported criminals moving into their neighborhood.


----------



## Value Collector (25 October 2019)

SirRumpole said:


> Yes well a lot of people say that until it personally affects them.
> 
> Like their property getting resumed for a new highway




Well, there are a lot worse things they could be asked to endure for the greater good.

Some people get conscripted to go and fight and end up losing arms or legs, so complaining about some one some where maybe having to move a few kilometers from where they live now, to ensure the rest of society has benefits for decades is a bit lame.



> imported criminals moving into their neighborhood.




Criminals? It’s just as likely to be an imported surgeon, dentist or engineer.


----------



## qldfrog (25 October 2019)

Value Collector said:


> Criminals? It’s just as likely to be an imported surgeon, dentist or engineer.



I think even the leftest greenies were stopping using that nonsense
It has become a popular joke in France
Feel free to find any number to even tell me that the proportion is the same as the host country
Were you not in london lately?
The only point i would agree with is that a newborn is still an extra mouth and we definitively do not need population growth on earth


----------



## Value Collector (25 October 2019)

qldfrog said:


> I think even the leftest greenies were stopping using that nonsense
> It has become a popular joke in France
> Feel free to find any number to even tell me that the proportion is the same as the host country
> Were you not in london lately?
> The only point i would agree with is that a newborn is still an extra mouth and we definitively do not need population growth on earth




Yeah, I was in London, then Cambridge, today I am in York, what’s your point?

One thing I did notice about London, which I also notice in Sydney, Los Angles and pretty much every where, the people doing the jobs most of us would hate to do, are not normally white, and English is not normally their first language.

But, the people that tend to want to start trouble (atleast in my experience) are young white grubs.


----------



## PZ99 (25 October 2019)

Value Collector said:


> Some people get conscripted to go and fight and end up losing arms or legs, so complaining about some one some where maybe having to move a few kilometers from where they live now, to ensure the rest of society has benefits for decades is a bit lame.



Ask yourself *why* Aussie diggers were conscripted to fight and you'll see the flaw in your argument.

It sure as hell wasn't for the greater good of Cuban immigrants


----------



## SirRumpole (25 October 2019)

Value Collector said:


> Well, there are a lot worse things they could be asked to endure for the greater good.
> 
> Some people get conscripted to go and fight and end up losing arms or legs, so complaining about some one some where maybe having to move a few kilometers from where they live now, to ensure the rest of society has benefits for decades is a bit lame.
> 
> ...




With all your money VC you could afford to buy a few apartment blocks and rent them out to refugees for the greater good of humanity.


----------



## Value Collector (25 October 2019)

PZ99 said:


> Ask yourself *why* Aussie diggers were conscripted to fight and you'll see the flaw in your argument.
> 
> It sure as hell wasn't for the greater good of Cuban immigrants




Why were Aussie diggers conscripted to fight?

If you were honest with yourself you would probably admit it was for all the things I oppose, eg nationalism, racism, religionism,  countries trying to lock up resources etc.

If nations of the past had opinions similar to mine, the world wars wouldn’t have happened.


----------



## Value Collector (25 October 2019)

SirRumpole said:


> With all your money VC you could afford to buy a few apartment blocks and rent them out to refugees for the greater good of humanity.




As I said, I plan to give away 100% of my money to charity, for now I think it’s better for me to keep compounding it.

But, I do invest back into housing for who ever wants to rent it, and unlike most landlords I just spent $16,000 putting solar panels on my properties for my tenants.


----------



## PZ99 (25 October 2019)

Value Collector said:


> Why were Aussie diggers conscripted to fight?
> 
> If you were honest with yourself you would probably admit it was for all the things I oppose, eg nationalism, racism, religionism,  countries trying to lock up resources etc.
> 
> If nations of the past had opinions similar to mine, the world wars wouldn’t have happened.



So not for the greater good then. Thankyou for discrediting your theory when you said...

_"there are a lot worse things they could be asked to endure for the greater good."
_
As SR said a lot of people say stuff until it personally affects them


----------



## Value Collector (25 October 2019)

PZ99 said:


> So not for the greater good then. Thankyou for discrediting your theory when you said...
> 
> _"there are a lot worse things they could be asked to endure for the greater good."
> _
> As SR said a lot of people say stuff until it personally affects them




Re-read my comment.

We were talking about people being asked to move so a highway could be expanded for the greater good.

My comment was simply pointing out that in the grand scheme of things that people are sometimes asked to do for what is seen at the time as “the greater good”, moving a few kilometers south is not a big deal.

I am not trying to justify world wars, as I said the causes of world wars could be avoided if people thought the way I do.


----------



## PZ99 (25 October 2019)

Moving a few k's south may not be a big deal for you but it's a big deal for others. Justifying it because it was done in the past for the sake of war doesn't mean it's for the greater good.

Unless you're pretending your greater good is greater than everyone else's greater good


----------



## againsthegrain (25 October 2019)

Value Collector said:


> Re-read my comment.
> 
> We were talking about people being asked to move so a highway could be expanded for the greater good.
> 
> ...




I bet every leader who started a war started it because he didn't think the other side "though the way I do"


----------



## SirRumpole (25 October 2019)

Value Collector said:


> Why were Aussie diggers conscripted to fight?
> 
> If you were honest with yourself you would probably admit it was for all the things I oppose, eg nationalism, racism, religionism,  countries trying to lock up resources etc.
> 
> If nations of the past had opinions similar to mine, the world wars wouldn’t have happened.




We are seeing the effects of globalism in the UK right now.

They are in the biggest mess since WWII because a large amount of the population feel they are being overrun by outsiders.

Like it or not, nations have to maintain control of their borders. 

John Howard was right in one thing he said, "we will control who comes here and the circumstances in which they come".


----------



## Value Collector (25 October 2019)

SirRumpole said:


> We are seeing the effects of globalism in the UK right now.
> 
> They are in the biggest mess since WWII because a large amount of the population feel they are being overrun by outsiders.
> 
> ...




I am not saying just have open borders. 

Some of the squeaky wheels in the U.K. are just xenophobic and fear change.


----------



## Value Collector (25 October 2019)

againsthegrain said:


> I bet every leader who started a war started it because he didn't think the other side "though the way I do"




Of course, both sides in wars always think they are he good guys, but usually atleast one side is operating using flawed logic.


----------



## qldfrog (25 October 2019)

https://www.michaelwest.com.au/australia-falls-to-stone-cold-last-in-credit-suisse-wealth-report/


----------



## qldfrog (25 October 2019)

A tell of 2 Australias
North brisbane
Strathpine shopping center
Elderly population, disabled, low attendance at,closing shops
North lake shopping center
Younger clientele more consumption
At each rate cut, Strathpine remaining purchasers tighten the belt
While in North lakes they enjoy the extra money from the mortgage cuts


----------



## Jack Aubrey (25 October 2019)

qldfrog said:


> https://www.michaelwest.com.au/australia-falls-to-stone-cold-last-in-credit-suisse-wealth-report/



That is a damning report on Australia's economic management since the GFC effects washed through. It is as if we are reverting to the boom and bust economy of the post-war era. Combine this with low productivity growth, low levels of innovation and an ageing population and it isn't easy to see a way forward.  Government seems devoid of ideas beyond spin and distraction (and the Opposition is increasingly likewise).  Even the modest hope of stimulus from tax and rate cuts (which I can't say I shared) seems to be evaporating.  Mind you, he says optimistically, we are not actually in a recession, just floating around in the doldrums.


----------



## sptrawler (26 October 2019)

SirRumpole said:


> We are seeing the effects of globalism in the UK right now.
> 
> They are in the biggest mess since WWII because a large amount of the population feel they are being overrun by outsiders.
> 
> ...



One of the biggest issues the EU would be having, would be all the refugees will be looking for somewhere to park in Europe, rather than just trying to get to the U.K. IMO


----------



## sptrawler (26 October 2019)

Jack Aubrey said:


> That is a damning report on Australia's economic management since the GFC effects washed through. It is as if we are reverting to the boom and bust economy of the post-war era. Combine this with low productivity growth, low levels of innovation and an ageing population and it isn't easy to see a way forward.  Government seems devoid of ideas beyond spin and distraction (and the Opposition is increasingly likewise).  Even the modest hope of stimulus from tax and rate cuts (which I can't say I shared) seems to be evaporating.  Mind you, he says optimistically, we are not actually in a recession, just floating around in the doldrums.



This is what frog and others have been saying for ages.
If we can get our population up to 50_60 million, a lot of our budget issues will sort themselves out, there will be plenty of service jobs and there won't be enough money for welfare. Lol


----------



## SirRumpole (26 October 2019)

Jack Aubrey said:


> That is a damning report on Australia's economic management since the GFC effects washed through. It is as if we are reverting to the boom and bust economy of the post-war era. Combine this with low productivity growth, low levels of innovation and an ageing population and it isn't easy to see a way forward.  Government seems devoid of ideas beyond spin and distraction (and the Opposition is increasingly likewise).  Even the modest hope of stimulus from tax and rate cuts (which I can't say I shared) seems to be evaporating.  Mind you, he says optimistically, we are not actually in a recession, just floating around in the doldrums.




It's not only damning, it's frightening.

Total economic mismanagement by the current government.

At least the other side tried to bring in a resources rent tax. They bungled it as usual but it would have solved a lot of problems.

Looks like its going to be another free ride for the miners for another 3 years at least.


----------



## qldfrog (26 October 2019)

Some more details
Like that website,serious unchallengeable and not seen on main media
https://www.macrobusiness.com.au/2019/10/anz-australia-experiencing-a-claytons-recession/


----------



## sptrawler (11 November 2019)

Talking to my imediate circle of friends, I would say hold your horses, things aint that bad those that recieved their tax cut are reducing their debt QUICKLY.
So things might look grim, but having a beer with the bloke over the road, we both couldnt get over how fast the kids are getting their debt sorted out.
Trust me I think it is the dark before the sunrise, but I have just knocked off 3/4 of a bottle of red the wife ordered. Lol I dont even like red.
We just have to get these gun traders, to give us the heads up on the hot stocks.


----------



## sptrawler (11 November 2019)

Also dont forget Im talking WA, not megga dick size Sydney and Melbourne, where if you cant outbid someone it is a reflection of your manhood.


----------



## sptrawler (11 November 2019)

Another thing that is out of control, is how many bottons and crap a toilet in Yokahama has.
Weird $hit the missus says she wants one, and I cant even work out how the f@$k to flush it. OMG
Time for bed.


----------



## Smurf1976 (11 November 2019)

sptrawler said:


> Also dont forget Im talking WA, not megga dick size Sydney and Melbourne, where if you cant outbid someone it is a reflection of your manhood.




I think that economically there's two halves of Australia really. Sydney + Melbourne versus everywhere else.

The media focuses on Sydney in particular.


----------



## Humid (12 November 2019)

sptrawler said:


> Talking to my imediate circle of friends, I would say hold your horses, things aint that bad those that recieved their tax cut are reducing their debt QUICKLY.
> So things might look grim, but having a beer with the bloke over the road, we both couldnt get over how fast the kids are getting their debt sorted out.
> Trust me I think it is the dark before the sunrise, but I have just knocked off 3/4 of a bottle of red the wife ordered. Lol I dont even like red.
> We just have to get these gun traders, to give us the heads up on the hot stocks.




https://amp.smh.com.au/politics/fed...-rather-than-spending-up-20191111-p539ee.html

Are these your friends


----------



## sptrawler (12 November 2019)

Humid said:


> https://amp.smh.com.au/politics/fed...-rather-than-spending-up-20191111-p539ee.html
> 
> Are these your friends



Thats interesting humid, my son is an underground sparky and his wife works, they are rattling down their loans asap, so are the two daughters. The guy over the road has three married daughters and he reckons theyve had a wake up call and are doing the same. The same goes talking to the 5-10 blokes that attend the golf day, who knows they may not be representitive of the general public.
The other thing of course could be, they are paying off other debt than the mortgage, which would be the sensible thing to do.


----------



## lusk (12 November 2019)

Although paying down debt is good personally it is not good for the system, they need debt to keep on expanding for economic growth and to service the interest. Else someone has to go bankrupt.

The RBA can lower interest rates to negative but they cant change if someone is credit worthy or peoples attitude to debt.


----------



## Jack Aubrey (12 November 2019)

sptrawler said:


> The other thing of course could be, they are paying off other debt than the mortgage, which would be the sensible thing to do.




Agreed. Paying down mortgages first while credit cards are still at 19% and personal loans around 7+% would be crazy.  

I also agree that a lot of younger people are much smarter about money that I was at their age. My two are both considering buying a house or unit. They do spreadsheets, read extensively and seek (pay-as-you-go) professional advice (including legals re defacto partnerships and splits). One is considering an investment property somewhere where house prices are lower and better transport infrastructure is planned or underway.  They also both know how much super they have and how it is performing.  Jeez, I was struggling with basic impulse control at their stage of life.


----------



## sptrawler (12 November 2019)

Jack Aubrey said:


> Agreed. Paying down mortgages first while credit cards are still at 19% and personal loans around 7+% would be crazy.
> 
> I also agree that a lot of younger people are much smarter about money that I was at their age. My two are both considering buying a house or unit. They do spreadsheets, read extensively and seek (pay-as-you-go) professional advice (including legals re defacto partnerships and splits). One is considering an investment property somewhere where house prices are lower and better transport infrastructure is planned or underway.  They also both know how much super they have and how it is performing.  Jeez, I was struggling with basic impulse control at their stage of life.



Sounds like what my son tells me, he says the latest group of workers coming through the mining industry, are far more switched on than those 10 years ago.
So maybe the current 24/7 doom and gloom media is having an effect and causing the young to be a tad more carefull.


----------



## Smurf1976 (12 November 2019)

sptrawler said:


> The guy over the road has three married daughters and he reckons theyve had a wake up call




I've heard much the same but it's a bit broader than that.

In short there's a general caution about the future and it applies to not only the economy as such but to the actions of government.

In particular, there's a distrust in superannuation now - people would prefer to have the money in their hands and invest it outside that system rather than within it despite incurring higher taxes for doing so. Reason = they don't trust the future actions of governments of either persuasion indeed they've lost confidence in government as such. 

In short - people have concluded it's up to them to do it themselves so that's what they're doing.


----------



## satanoperca (12 November 2019)

Just read the comments on this article, I think it says it all about how people feel about the worlds greatest, sorry the universes greatest economic managers - LNP.

https://www.theage.com.au/politics/...g-debt-ageing-population-20191111-p539ei.html


----------



## SirRumpole (13 November 2019)

Influential investor fears crash is coming.

https://www.abc.net.au/news/2019-11...nfluential-investor-mohamed-el-erian/11700696


----------



## Toyota Lexcen (13 November 2019)

Always negative, maybe right one day.

Australia and a lot of other economies will just muddle along.

I MO the closing of the car industry and ASIC/APRA  over regulation will stand out in our country's history.


----------



## satanoperca (13 November 2019)

bull****


Toyota Lexcen said:


> Always negative, maybe right one day.
> 
> Australia and a lot of other economies will just muddle along.
> 
> I MO the closing of the car industry and ASIC/APRA  over regulation will stand out in our country's history.




The car industry was f--ld, no focus on singular product development, APRA/ASIC what did you want them to do, nothing? Provide a solution or at least an answer or a question other than the old, weak comment of someone/organisation didn't do something in hindsight.


----------



## Smurf1976 (13 November 2019)

satanoperca said:


> The car industry was f--ld




The proverbial Blind Freddy could see it was stuffed at least 20 years before it finally closed.

The only real surprise is that it lasted as long as it did really. Once Nissan went, the writing was well and truly on the wall for the rest and surely nobody would have doubted that once Mitsubishi also went.



> APRA/ASIC what did you want them to do, nothing?




To quote a former boss of mine back in the 1990's:

"It seems that there's a fixed number of regulators in the world. Once they stopped regulating things which actually needed regulating, like banks, they turned their attention to regulating all sorts of things which really don't need regulating and have become a bloody nuisance. We'd all be better off if they went back to regulating the banks and left everyone else to get on with their jobs".

That's would be very close to the exact words, it stuck firmly in my mind as one of the better observations I've heard as to the overall state of affairs. All trades and professions get things wrong but rarely does anything other than finance manage to take an entire state or even country down with it - banks need regulating far more than anything else apart perhaps from nuclear reactors and chemical factories.


----------



## PZ99 (13 November 2019)

This is what happens when you deregulate the banks


----------



## Toyota Lexcen (13 November 2019)

APRA/ASIC have back pedalled on loan types/requirements for banks. I expect them to loosen regulation further.


----------



## frugal.rock (13 November 2019)

As Sir Rrrrrumpole of the Bailey says.
The Mohamed has spoken, people will listen and prepare for the inevitable. 
Maybe ye don't think it's time for a correction and a half?
Me thinks it is. Well overdue, so we're gunna need a bigger boat.
Ye can put ye noggin in a hole in the sand, or ye can keep your cauliflower ear on the rail....
Cheers, 
F.Rock


----------



## Smurf1976 (13 November 2019)

Seven weeks from now it will be 2020. Christmas Day is 6 weeks from today.

Retail sales in the lead up to Christmas will be somewhat telling in themself and also influence the mood of business and consumers in 2020 I expect and there's really only three classes of outcome.

Doom and gloom.

Muddle through.

Boom.

Regardless of the actual sales figures over the next few weeks, it'll end up pigeon holed into one of those three categories ultimately and is a given to be mainstream news especially if it's in either the "doom and gloom" or "boom" categories.


----------



## jbocker (14 November 2019)

Spoke with a mates young tradie son the other day. I was quite surprised at how naive he was about financial investment matters. Told him to look up on the 'net about compound interest. Also pay yourself first. Ask me some questions after that.
I will be back there in a few days. Interested to know if he looked it up.


----------



## Toyota Lexcen (14 November 2019)

SqM Property Research released an article about future property pricing.

 In their view APRA has influenced the economy more than RBA. APRA stopped banks loaning money.

They have made significant errors I MO.


----------



## satanoperca (14 November 2019)

Toyota Lexcen said:


> They have made significant errors I MO.



Who made errors?
What where they?
Why do you believe they were errors?


----------



## Toyota Lexcen (14 November 2019)

Read post


----------



## satanoperca (14 November 2019)

Which post, where?


----------



## Toyota Lexcen (14 November 2019)

The one your interested in


----------



## wayneL (15 November 2019)

Speaking with a client in the building game yesterday, reckons there are a number of plumbers out of work for the first time in ages. FWIW

On the other hand my trade is whacking up prices and people aren't even blinking.


----------



## SirRumpole (15 November 2019)

wayneL said:


> Speaking with a client in the building game yesterday, reckons there are a number of plumbers out of work for the first time in ages. FWIW
> 
> On the other hand my trade is whacking up prices and people aren't even blinking.




The rich are getting richer and the poor are getting poorer.

Your example would be repeated a lot in the real economy I'd say.


----------



## Toyota Lexcen (15 November 2019)

I finding it very easy to get trades and they are very amicable to deal with.

Similar to the mining shakeup a few years ago all the average workers are sitting on the sidelines. 

They came out of the mines to the Eastern states, filled the numbers on towers etc and now unemployed.


----------



## satanoperca (15 November 2019)

Maybe the wrong thread, but well worth the watch.


----------



## SirRumpole (15 November 2019)

satanoperca said:


> Maybe the wrong thread, but well worth the watch.





Fascinating.

I can't recall the ARB printing money but everything else he says seems to be spot on.


----------



## wayneL (15 November 2019)

Toyota Lexcen said:


> I finding it very easy to get trades and they are very amicable to deal with.
> 
> Similar to the mining shakeup a few years ago all the average workers are sitting on the sidelines.
> 
> They came out of the mines to the Eastern states, filled the numbers on towers etc and now unemployed.




News.com is reporting a collapse in the Ute index. Ie Ute sales are down


----------



## Toyota Lexcen (15 November 2019)

They didn’t print, but surely the manufacturing boom in Asia has to account for a lot of the advancement

Not that simple


----------



## qldfrog (15 November 2019)

satanoperca said:


> Maybe the wrong thread, but well worth the watch.




So what is the option for our savings? Gold?


----------



## basilio (17 November 2019)

What happened in the 1990's recession ?  Worth a review.

* Remembering the recession: 'The 1990s experience changed my view of the world' *
Is Australia facing a recession? Many are too young to have experienced the devastation wrought by the economic downturn of the early 90s 
https://www.theguardian.com/busines...1990s-experience-changed-my-view-of-the-world


----------



## basilio (17 November 2019)

The Live Wire interview is sobering and disturbing. Quite scary...


----------



## Humid (17 November 2019)

One big difference in WA now is the amount of different mines in operation compared to then.
The maintenance never stops and everything is exported so the local market is irrelevant.

I’m in iron ore automation so the emerging economies hopefully will keep me employed long enough to buy a v8 Ute and new jet ski


----------



## Value Collector (18 November 2019)

PZ99 said:


> Only if everybody is dead. Otherwise it's $184 trillion.




For every $1 debt on some ones balance sheet, there is a $1 on some ones else's, so the net debt is $0


----------



## SirRumpole (18 November 2019)

Value Collector said:


> For every $1 debt on some ones balance sheet, there is a $1 on some ones else's, so the net debt is $0




That assumes that debt will actually be paid off and not forgiven or defaulted on, so there is also a "provision for doubtful debts" which means it's not a binary equation.


----------



## Value Collector (18 November 2019)

qldfrog said:


> A tell of 2 Australias
> North brisbane
> Strathpine shopping center
> Elderly population, disabled, low attendance at,closing shops
> ...




I know both centres well, I actually went to high school just down the road from Strathpine shopping centre (when it was still Westfields Strathpine) I was a Pine Rivers kid. 

The difference between the two is mostly geography, Westfields sold Strathpine and toombul shopping centre and invested heavily in North Lakes and Chermside because they knew Strathpine and toombul were weaker locations vs North lakes and Chermside which sit right on the freeway/main drag out of Brisbane pulling in large amounts regional traffic while also pulling the higher spenders from Strathpine and Toombul areas due to better retail offerings.


----------



## Value Collector (18 November 2019)

SirRumpole said:


> That assumes that debt will actually be paid off and not forgiven or defaulted on, so there is also a "provision for doubtful debts" which means it's not a binary equation.




its still the same, a default causes an asset to disappear of one balance sheet and a debt to disappear of another, still net $0, a default causes the defaulter to become richer and the creditor to become poorer.

Hence the reason the Tax Office treats debt forgiveness and income.


----------



## Value Collector (18 November 2019)

qldfrog said:


> So what is the option for our savings? Gold?




Income producing assets. 

definitely not gold, unless you are 75 years old, and don't want to leave anything for your family or charity.


----------



## PZ99 (18 November 2019)

Value Collector said:


> For every $1 debt on some ones balance sheet, there is a $1 on some ones else's, so the net debt is $0



For as long as money is a token of exchange for labour there is no equilibrium of debt to assets.


----------



## Value Collector (18 November 2019)

PZ99 said:


> For as long as money is a token of exchange for labour there is no equilibrium of debt to assets.




I am not sure what you mean.

a $1 debt is a liability to one person (claim on that persons future Labour) and an asset to another (promise of future labour) for every $1 liability that exists another entity has a $1 asset.

It’s just the way it is, like the laws of physics.


----------



## SirRumpole (18 November 2019)

Value Collector said:


> I am not sure what you mean.
> 
> a $1 debt is a liability to one person (claim on that persons future Labour) and an asset to another (promise of future labour) for every $1 liability that exists another entity has a $1 asset.
> 
> It’s just the way it is, like the laws of physics.




So that's the accounting done, it doesn't say anything about the effect of debt on the economy, governments or individuals.


----------



## PZ99 (18 November 2019)

Value Collector said:


> I am not sure what you mean.
> 
> a $1 debt is a liability to one person (claim on that persons future Labour) and an asset to another (promise of future labour) for every $1 liability that exists another entity has a $1 asset.
> 
> It’s just the way it is, like the laws of physics.




The laws of physics in this context state that if there was no net debt there would be no circulation of money. So it doesn't remotely solve the debt issues faced by the state.


----------



## Value Collector (18 November 2019)

PZ99 said:


> The laws of physics in this context state that if there was no net debt there would be no circulation of money




how so?

money will circulate when ever transactions occur or debts are settled.


----------



## Value Collector (18 November 2019)

SirRumpole said:


> it doesn't say anything about the effect of debt .




if you have something to say about it, just say it.


----------



## PZ99 (18 November 2019)

Value Collector said:


> how so?
> 
> money will circulate when ever transactions occur or debts are settled.



You're saying the total sum of liability is equal to the total sum of assets, yes ?


----------



## Value Collector (18 November 2019)

PZ99 said:


> You're saying the total sum of liability is equal to the total sum of assets, yes ?




No, I am not saying that at all.

There could be $100 Trillion of assets on earth, and $1 of debt. Total debt on earth doesn’t have to equal total assets.

All I am saying is that for every $1 of debt that some body owes, another person, group or entity owns that debt and it will appear on their balance sheet as an asset, so the “net worth” of our planet remains The same.

Eg, growing debt, does not mean the economy as a whole is poorer, it can actually make society richer if it is being used to fund productive assets.


----------



## PZ99 (18 November 2019)

I don't seem to remember anyone saying the economy as a whole is poorer ?

If the net worth of the planet is nothing how does that relate to the original point of slowing growth and increasing difficulty with meeting debt obligations ?


----------



## Value Collector (19 November 2019)

PZ99 said:


> I don't seem to remember anyone saying the economy as a whole is poorer ?




That is the general assumption when people talk about debts rising, they seem to be assuming that we a some how poorer.




> If the net worth of the planet is nothing how does that relate to the original point of slowing growth and increasing difficulty with meeting debt obligations ?




what?? Who said the net worth of The planet is zero.

The net worth of the planet is Many Trillions of dollars, regardless of how much debt there is.

Where is the evidence that debt obligations are harder to meet on average now than they were ten years ago?

sure there might be some areas of consumer finance struggling, but interest rates are lower than ever, and company’s are falling over them selves to sign up for debt because it’s so cheap.


----------



## PZ99 (19 November 2019)

Value Collector said:


> what?? Who said the net worth of The planet is zero.




Sorry, that was a typo on my part. I'll re-post the question for clarity:

If the net *debt* of the planet is nothing how does that relate to the original point of slowing growth and increasing difficulty with meeting debt obligations ?



Value Collector said:


> Where is the evidence that debt obligations are harder to meet on average now than they were ten years ago?



Right here and now. Ten years ago Australia's Govt had no net debt. Now we have a net debt of around 400 billion dollars. Servicing that debt is money out of taxpayers' pockets. For every month of output we produce, we have one month equal to our debt. Obviously it's harder to service debt today than ten years ago when their was no debt.

The post you were responding to when you said "no net debt" was about slowing growth and higher debts for economies - not consumers.


----------



## SirRumpole (19 November 2019)

Value Collector said:


> if you have something to say about it, just say it.




PZ99 pretty well summed it up at #1249.

The costs of servicing the debt inhibits people from spending on the products of business and therefore debt degrades economic consumption and contributes to falling economic growth.

Of course, some debt can be good if it results in an increase of capabilities like starting a new business, building productive infrastructure etc, but if you have to borrow just to stay alive then you are basically eating yourself and it won't end well.

I think the US has been in this situation for quite a while, and we could mention countries like Greece.


----------



## Value Collector (19 November 2019)

SirRumpole said:


> PZ99 pretty well summed it up at #1249.
> 
> The costs of servicing the debt inhibits people from spending on the products of business and therefore debt degrades economic consumption and contributes to falling economic growth.
> 
> ...




If a person pays $1 in interest, that person has $1 less to spend.

however that $1 interest payment is going to land as income in some one else’s pocket, and they will have an additional $1 to spend.

so the net affect is $0, not bad not good it just is.

however as you stated some debt is extremely good.

for example I have financed about 36 solar installations through rate setter.

I earn interest.
The borrower gets cheaper energy.
The installation creates employment 

the debt creates a net plus for the economy in situations like this, in consumer situations.


----------



## Value Collector (19 November 2019)

PZ99 said:


> Right here and now. Ten years ago Australia's Govt had no net debt. Now we have a net debt of around 400 billion dollars. Servicing that debt is money out of taxpayers' pockets. For every month of output we produce, we have one month equal to our debt. Obviously it's harder to service debt today than ten years ago when their was no debt.
> 
> The post you were responding to when you said "no net debt" was about slowing growth and higher debts for economies - not consumers.




that’s just like saying “John used to be debt free, but then he got a car loan, so now debt is harder to service because he has a monthly payment, when in the last he didn’t”

obviously the debt of any single borrower (including the government) will be harder to service if that borrower increases their level of debt relative to what They had in the past.

the fact is debt $1 Billion of debt is far easier to service today than it was 10 years ago, the fact you have debt now and 10 years ago you didn’t is irrelevant, That’s just a personal choice.

—————-
my point is within the global economy the net affect of debt is $0.

every dollar of interest paid by one person, group or entity is earned by another, its not lost, it is just shifted from one household, suburb, state or country to another household, suburb, state or country.


----------



## qldfrog (19 November 2019)

@SirRumpole,  we both agree on
"Of course, some debt can be good if it results in an increase of capabilities like starting a new business, building productive infrastructure etc"
So i do not understand your stance on increasing budget deficit by giving away unproductive money bought on debt, sure the lower incomes will buy more fast food and Chinese made electronics at JBHifi
But overall, Australia looses,
We spend a billion plus per month just serving our debt interest, can you imagine the hospitals and productive assets we could build and serve with that.As per my usual rant, i saw a country sinking a generation ago following mistakes after mistakes in term of immigration, welfare and socialist ideology, it is very painful to see it replicated step by step here with sadly the same outcomes..surprise surprise..


----------



## SirRumpole (19 November 2019)

qldfrog said:


> @SirRumpole,  we both agree on
> "Of course, some debt can be good if it results in an increase of capabilities like starting a new business, building productive infrastructure etc"
> So i do not understand your stance on increasing budget deficit by giving away unproductive money bought on debt, sure the lower incomes will buy more fast food and Chinese made electronics at JBHifi
> But overall, Australia looses,
> We spend a billion plus per month just serving our debt interest, can you imagine the hospitals and productive assets we could build and serve with that.As per my usual rant, i saw a country sinking a generation ago following mistakes after mistakes in term of immigration, welfare and socialist ideology, it is very painful to see it replicated step by step here with sadly the same outcomes..surprise surprise..




The problem as I see it is that the LNP never considers additional sources of revenue it could gain from our mineral and gas resources which basically are being plundered by foreign conglomerates and avoiding tax in the process.

Norway put a 40% tax on their gas exports and the companies are still in business.

It's time we did similar.


----------



## PZ99 (19 November 2019)

Value Collector said:


> that’s just like saying “John used to be debt free, but then he got a car loan, so now debt is harder to service because he has a monthly payment, when in the last he didn’t”
> 
> obviously the debt of any single borrower (including the government) will be harder to service if that borrower increases their level of debt relative to what They had in the past.
> 
> ...



LOL > I don't think Australia going into horrendous debt was a personal choice.

Having more debt now than ten years ago is very relevant. You and I have to pay for it.
That money doesn't just go in some one else’s pocket - it goes out of the country, which creates a negative effect here. 

Using the "zero net debt" theory isn't a magic bullet because it avoids the point of the debate.


----------



## qldfrog (19 November 2019)

SirRumpole said:


> The problem as I see it is that the LNP never considers additional sources of revenue it could gain from our mineral and gas resources which basically are being plundered by foreign conglomerates and avoiding tax in the process.
> 
> Norway put a 40% tax on their gas exports and the companies are still in business.
> 
> It's time we did similar.



Being reasonable, we can agree that both labour post Howard years and LNP are doing a pathetic work debt wise
The trouble is that Australia is plunging into a socialist welfare state even with LNP on power, we still have pensions and ndis unchanged moving from labour to LNP , ndis, the symbol of an unaffordable system in my opinion is a bipartisan vote
You can not win here without being pro welfare.either lower income welfare or middle class/retiree welfare....
And LNP did not kill the mining tax, Gilliard did with union and mining lobby..that is history...
But agree LNP would have killed it too...


----------



## Smurf1976 (19 November 2019)

Value Collector said:


> If a person pays $1 in interest, that person has $1 less to spend.
> 
> however that $1 interest payment is going to land as income in some one else’s pocket, and they will have an additional $1 to spend.
> 
> so the net affect is $0, not bad not good it just is.




An issue there is _who_ gets that money?

That is, the possibility that the money is in practice being transferred from someone who would spend it in the real local economy to someone who won't do so.


----------



## SirRumpole (19 November 2019)

qldfrog said:


> You can not win here without being pro welfare.either lower income welfare or middle class/retiree welfare....




Would you agree franking credit rebates are welfare ?


----------



## qldfrog (19 November 2019)

SirRumpole said:


> Would you agree franking credit rebates are welfare ?



No, as a owner of a company with your share or as a 50pc owner of the corner shop, you should not pay taxes twice.
Tax are evil and should be kept a minimum, the fight should always be to reduce output, not increase input..as gov are by nature inefficient..as are big corporate by the way, but they replace efficiency by bullying


----------



## SirRumpole (19 November 2019)

qldfrog said:


> No, as a owner of a company with your share or as a 50pc owner of the corner shop, you should not pay taxes twice.
> Tax are evil and should be kept a minimum, the fight should always be to reduce output, not increase input..as gov are by nature inefficient..as are big corporate by the way, but they replace efficiency by bullying




So what sort of middle class welfare are you talking about ?


----------



## qldfrog (19 November 2019)

The ones which see 49pc of Australian not paying more taxes than they receive.be it childcare subsidies, being forced to take mandatory private health insurance while having some premium paid back, etc
In a rough idea, 80pc of Australians should pay some taxes,however minimal otherwise we have a nation of entitled who end up with a socialist government and a dead country until starvation.. Chile, Argentina,soon France, Spain


----------



## qldfrog (19 November 2019)

Anyway, this is out of scope but government debt should have a roi, and it could be education, health..but not fake boobs or transgender opps..always seing the overall return on society


----------



## SirRumpole (19 November 2019)

qldfrog said:


> The ones which see 49pc of Australian not paying more taxes than they receive.be it childcare subsidies, being forced to take mandatory private health insurance while having some premium paid back, etc
> In a rough idea, 80pc of Australians should pay some taxes,however minimal otherwise we have a nation of entitled who end up with a socialist government and a dead country until starvation.. Chile, Argentina,soon France, Spain




Family Tax Benefits ?

I agree there, if people can't afford their kids that should not be the problem of the general taxpayer.


----------



## PZ99 (19 November 2019)

SirRumpole said:


> Family Tax Benefits ?
> 
> I agree there, if people can't afford their kids that should not be the problem of the general taxpayer.



Agreed. Educating people to be financially responsible is one way to improve the breed.

Giving money to housos to pump out centrelink fodder is not. It's quite dof IMV


----------



## Value Collector (19 November 2019)

SirRumpole said:


> Would you agree franking credit rebates are welfare ?



Nope, they just ensure taxes are paid at each individuals correct marginal rate, and here is no double taxation.


----------



## Value Collector (19 November 2019)

Smurf1976 said:


> An issue there is _who_ gets that money?
> 
> That is, the possibility that the money is in practice being transferred from someone who would spend it in the real local economy to someone who won't do so.




it’s going to get spent or relent no matter what, offcourse it might not get spent or re-lent in the exact down it was earned in, but that’s just they way the cookie crumbles.


----------



## Value Collector (19 November 2019)

PZ99 said:


> LOL > I don't think Australia going into horrendous debt was a personal choice.
> 
> Having more debt now than ten years ago is very relevant. You and I have to pay for it.
> That money doesn't just go in some one else’s pocket - it goes out of the country, which creates a negative effect here.
> ...




none of that is an argument against my position.

I never said debt doesn’t have bad side effects for those who owe money.

offcourse Australia going into debt was a choice, the government spent more than they collected in taxes, they could have spent less or taxed more to avoid debt if they wanted.

but as I said not all debt is bad, the current debt might have been total worth it, who knows.


----------



## PZ99 (19 November 2019)

Value Collector said:


> none of that is an argument against my position.
> 
> I never said debt doesn’t have bad side effects for those who owe money.
> 
> ...



Apart from the last sentence I'd have to disagree. The Australian economy is not strong enough to have a choice of whether we go into debt or not. We rely heavily (I would argue too heavily) on the world economy to keep us going. When a GFC happens and our revenues are lower the Govt just doesn't have the choice to stop programs to balance the budget unless we're happy to play Hoover and endure triple dip recessions and the like - which would then cut revenues even further.

I remember Kevin Rudd promised us a "temporary" deficit to deal with the GFC. LOL


----------



## fiftyeight (19 November 2019)

SirRumpole said:


> Family Tax Benefits ?
> 
> I agree there, if people can't afford their kids that should not be the problem of the general taxpayer.




Yeah I agree. Just like if some old dude did not save enough for retirement, why are they entitled to generous tax breaks or the pension? 

Old dude should of just worked more, hmmm I wonder if thats what the young couple are trying to do when they claim a child care subsidy?


----------



## fiftyeight (19 November 2019)

Value Collector said:


> it’s going to get spent or relent no matter what, offcourse it might not get spent or re-lent in the exact down it was earned in, but that’s just they way the cookie crumbles.




With life span increasing and wealth accumulating towards the top, an increasing portion of total wealth could stored as 1s and 0s in growing bank accounts rather than circulating through the economy?


----------



## Value Collector (20 November 2019)

fiftyeight said:


> With life span increasing and wealth accumulating towards the top, an increasing portion of total wealth could stored as 1s and 0s in growing bank accounts rather than circulating through the economy?




you can’t really have it both ways, you either believe debt is growing which is a clear sign money is being re-lent at higher and higher rates and therefore “circulating”, or it is being locked away in a vault in which case debt would not be growing.

so which is it?


----------



## Value Collector (20 November 2019)

PZ99 said:


> Apart from the last sentence I'd have to disagree. The Australian economy is not strong enough to have a choice of whether we go into debt or not. We rely heavily (I would argue too heavily) on the world economy to keep us going. When a GFC happens and our revenues are lower the Govt just doesn't have the choice to stop programs to balance the budget unless we're happy to play Hoover and endure triple dip recessions and the like - which would then cut revenues even further.
> 
> I remember Kevin Rudd promised us a "temporary" deficit to deal with the GFC. LOL




Of course the government has a choice, there is always a choice.


----------



## jbocker (20 November 2019)

jbocker said:


> Spoke with a mates young tradie son the other day. I was quite surprised at how naive he was about financial investment matters. Told him to look up on the 'net about compound interest. Also pay yourself first. Ask me some questions after that.
> I will be back there in a few days. Interested to know if he looked it up.




OK, caught up with the above and NO the lad hadn't looked up "compound Interest". I said a great % of people probably wouldn't, if they were told to do it.
To his credit he did look up cheap land on an island in another state and was excited by the idea. Encouragingly more so, he realised his car debt was an area of concern, and was starting to realise a concept of bad debt.
Not to piss on his plans I said good work, keep researching. hope you stumble compound interest in your research.
Between you and me, he being young can afford the lessons, ie a mistake or two to learn from instead of listening to some advice by some old geeser. Just like most of us did.


----------



## PZ99 (20 November 2019)

Value Collector said:


> Of course the government has a choice, there is always a choice.



Still don't agree. 

When the options are - go into debt - or blow up the economy - there is no choice.


----------



## qldfrog (20 November 2019)

Debt vs blowing on the economy?
A bit like i am hungry but weight 180kg, i can go to macdo and forget it  and feel good or start a diet.repeat tomorrow..
Economies need to wash and small recession is the way
Our leaders chose  for us Hiroshima in the future.then even i will wish i was wrong...


----------



## PZ99 (20 November 2019)

Well that's a choice - Macca's vs Medicare. Can't have both


----------



## rederob (20 November 2019)

PZ99 said:


> Still don't agree.
> 
> When the options are - go into debt - or blow up the economy - there is no choice.



Dividing the tax cake can be done in a manner which does not destroy the economy, but somehow reducing taxes is seen as economically responsible even when debt isn't being decreased.
The laughable bit about claims of getting the budget in balance recently have had nothing to to do with good management and everything to do with our resource base generating wealth, despite no value adding happening in Oz.
Debt to GDP remains high:


----------



## qldfrog (20 November 2019)

PZ99 said:


> Well that's a choice - Macca's vs Medicare. Can't have both



You will have Macca then a heart failure treatment paid by Medicare


----------



## qldfrog (20 November 2019)

Another nice economic study by their ABC
https://www.abc.net.au/news/2019-11...ers-retiring-immigration/11700508?pfmredir=sm
In the very same article:
We are getting older..true
We were saved..? By immigration..aka growth..true for gdp
But income are regressing due to this too abundant workforce..sadly true
And the recommended solution:
Increase workforce participation..not kidding..the conclusion of the article
Amazingly dumb...
But a few figures are interesting on our economy.


----------



## fiftyeight (20 November 2019)

Value Collector said:


> you can’t really have it both ways, you either believe debt is growing which is a clear sign money is being re-lent at higher and higher rates and therefore “circulating”, or it is being locked away in a vault in which case debt would not be growing.
> 
> so which is it?




I borrow $1 and pay interest only, I then get a higher paying job which allows me to borrow another $1 and repeat. Total debt has grown with no circulation and the value of the debt plus the interest paid stays with a person who has more money they will spend in a lifetime


----------



## Jack Aubrey (20 November 2019)

A view from an inner-city, leftist:

While I do understand the idea that recessions can be "good" for an economy, I think they are universally bad for society.  A two or three year recession can destroy the lives of hundreds of thousands of people and put young people, in particular, behind the eight ball for a decade or more.  At a time when many people are already in precarious employment, a genuine recession would be likely to create a permanent class of "working poor" - as in the USA.

I know that many people now have a negative reaction to the whole idea of "the welfare state" but it has generally worked to create stable economies and societies where it has been applied since WW2.  The social benefits are fairly clear - including lower real crime rates, an educated, generally healthy workforce and lower levels of inequality within and between generations.  Yes, we can grumble about "free riders" and people "exploiting the system" but the actual costs of putting up with these things are really pretty low compared to the benefits we all receive.  Personally, I think we are too judgemental of other people's choices and situations and we tend to react too negatively to the individual examples of "young dole bludgers" and " drug addicted single mothers" that are fed to us by a media that makes its money out of our outrage.  I have never seen a situation where the moral panic over some class of people "getting away" with receiving welfare has been justified by the actual stats - the vast majority of welfare recipients are people who simply find themselves in a bad situation and would rather not be receiving assistance at all.

I know many people who, at one time in their lives, have fallen into one of the categories of "unworthiness".  Either they or their kids have mostly gone on to become "good", productive citizens.  I doubt that would have happened if they had been "thrown off" welfare when they needed it.

There's both a moral/ethical and economic basis for supporting a "welfare state" that goes beyond discussion of the worthiness of the individuals receiving any particular form welfare.  I'd personally go further and say that the fact that we feel it necessary to differentiate types of welfare at all is questionable.  A needs-based system (taking into account both income and capital), simply administered, with minimal coercion and enforcement, would IMO produce similar results at around the same economic cost.  Any "sticks" we feel necessary to move people off welfare should be balanced by positive support such as financial counselling, retraining and helping the socially isolated reconnect with their communities.

It has been said many time before but taxes are the price we pay for a civilised society.

Thus ends the sermon.


----------



## Value Collector (20 November 2019)

fiftyeight said:


> I borrow $1 and pay interest only, I then get a higher paying job which allows me to borrow another $1 and repeat. Total debt has grown with no circulation and the value of the debt plus the interest paid stays with a person who has more money they will spend in a lifetime




your claim was that super rich people could just build up dollars in their bank accounts and not circulate them.

If you were able to go to the bank and borrow an additional dollar, that means that their money isn’t “locked up”, it is available to be lent out, and hence it is “circulating”.


----------



## SirRumpole (20 November 2019)

Jack Aubrey said:


> It has been said many time before but taxes are the price we pay for a civilised society.




I believe that the way automation and intelligent machines are developing we will have to start looking at a "universal basic income" at some point in time.

If people keep getting replaced by machines then we will have to start taxing machines and software used to build AI and give this money back to people so that they can then spend it on the products of machines.

Some may call a UBI "welfare" , but I don't think it is, it's simply redistributing money from the producers to the consumers. If we don't do this then I foresee economic collapse where goods are sitting around on docks or warehouses because people can't afford to buy them.

People who want more money will obviously go into professions where original thought is needed (like programming the machines) rather than where processes can be automated.


----------



## Value Collector (20 November 2019)

fiftyeight said:


> I borrow $1 and pay interest only, I then get a higher paying job which allows me to borrow another $1 and repeat. Total debt has grown with no circulation and the value of the debt plus the interest paid stays with a person who has more money they will spend in a lifetime






your claim was that super rich people could just build up dollars in their bank accounts and not circulate them.

If you were able to go to the bank and borrow an additional dollar, that means that their money isn’t “locked up”, it is available to be lent out, and hence it is “circulating”.

——————-

Also, your last point about the rich lender having more to spend when you pay interest is exactly my point.

you owe a dollar $1, he has a $1 asset.

you pay interest, he earns interest.

the net effect on the economy is $0.

my original point what just stating that when people see growing global debts They seem to think the world is getting poorer, but it’s not like That, all it means is one group owes another group future labour.


----------



## Value Collector (20 November 2019)

SirRumpole said:


> I believe that the way automation and intelligent machines are developing we will have to start looking at a "universal basic income" at some point in time.
> 
> If people keep getting replaced by machines then we will have to start taxing machines and software used to build AI and give this money back to people so that they can then spend it on the products of machines.
> 
> ...




I agree with you That automation will eventually create the need for universal income.

but I don’t see the need for a “machine tax”, the “machines” will still be owned by companies and individuals and you would simply just have to continue charging company tax, personal tax as we do. (Along with mining royalties, gst etc)

Currently about 90% of the proceeds any company’s out put gets diverted to pay Employee wages and taxes. 

only about 10% of a companies output goes back to the owners.

As the need for employees drop, either prices of the goods sold will drop with it (which is good for society) or profits will rise (creating more taxable income), or a combination of both.


----------



## Value Collector (20 November 2019)

PZ99 said:


> Still don't agree.
> 
> When the options are - go into debt - or blow up the economy - there is no choice.




Again you can’t have it both ways,

If you think debt saved us from the economy blowing up, then the current interest payments represent a good investment.

If you think the debt was a bad idea, and didn’t have a net benefit, then it was a bad choice.


----------



## SirRumpole (20 November 2019)

Value Collector said:


> As the need for employees drop, either prices of the goods sold will drop with it (which is good for society) or profits will rise (creating more taxable income), or a combination of both.




We can argue about the mechanisms, if your way provides sufficient revenue for a UBI well and good, if not something else will have to be done.

eg if the prices of goods drop then GST revenue will decrease and maybe increased take from companies won't compensate. There are lots of swings and roundabouts in the tax system.


----------



## Jack Aubrey (20 November 2019)

SirRumpole said:


> I believe that the way automation and intelligent machines are developing we will have to start looking at a "universal basic income" at some point in time.
> 
> If people keep getting replaced by machines then we will have to start taxing machines and software used to build AI and give this money back to people so that they can then spend it on the products of machines.
> 
> ...




The UBI idea is probably the most interesting economic debate going at the moment.  I find it particularly fascinating that it is often Billionaires like Bezos and Musk who raise it while both the traditional left and right both find reasons to oppose it.  Richard Nixon's US administration was actually working towards something like a UBI ("negative income tax") in the 1970s before he had the mishap with tape recordings.

I think countries like Australia and the US will have enormous difficulty even discussing it as it is so easily characterised as welfare and we have demonised welfare.


----------



## PZ99 (20 November 2019)

Value Collector said:


> Again you can’t have it both ways,
> 
> If you think debt saved us from the economy blowing up, then the current interest payments represent a good investment.
> 
> If you think the debt was a bad idea, and didn’t have a net benefit, then it was a bad choice.



I don't think either of those things. 

I think some debt was unavoidable regardless of policy so therefore choice was removed.

I also think subsequent polices + carry over structural deficits have made it worse which goes to my original point as to why debt obligations are harder to meet than ten years ago - because the debt is higher.


----------



## Value Collector (20 November 2019)

Jack Aubrey said:


> The UBI idea is probably the most interesting economic debate going at the moment.  I find it particularly fascinating that it is often Billionaires like Bezos and Musk who raise it while both the traditional left and right both find reasons to oppose it.  Richard Nixon's US administration was actually working towards something like a UBI ("negative income tax") in the 1970s before he had the mishap with tape recordings.
> 
> I think countries like Australia and the US will have enormous difficulty even discussing it as it is so easily characterised as welfare and we have demonised welfare.




I think we are basically half way there in australia, with the dole and pensions.

I think it needs to be phased in very slowly, only raised up to a comfortable living wage slowly once it truly becomes impossible to find work, and that is still a fair way off.


----------



## tech/a (20 November 2019)

Value Collector said:


> I think we are basically half way there in australia, with the dole and pensions.
> 
> I think it needs to be phased in very slowly, only raised up to a comfortable living wage slowly once it truly becomes impossible to find work, and that is still a fair way off.




The state will find you work---comrade!


----------



## Value Collector (20 November 2019)

tech/a said:


> The state will find you work---comrade!




hahaha.

bulldozers are banned, the are the enemy of the common man, melt them down and forge 1 Million shovels, and we will have full employment.


----------



## rederob (20 November 2019)

tech/a said:


> The state will find you work---comrade!



But there are no jobs.
*Then make it your job to find work.*
Who will pay me?
*The state.*
But there are no jobs.
*Are you being paid?*


----------



## fiftyeight (20 November 2019)

Value Collector said:


> my original point what just stating that when people see growing global debts They seem to think the world is getting poorer, but it’s not like That, all it means is one group owes another group future labour.




I am just thinking out aloud here, I have not spent a huge amount thinking/reading about this.

An increasing number of people's future labour (time) is owed to a few very.


----------



## qldfrog (20 November 2019)

Fed government is pushing 4billions to qld for infrastructure work, all paid on debt of course
@SirRumpole  is now a big fan of Morrison and shrieking of joy like a teenager at an Ariana concert


----------



## Smurf1976 (20 November 2019)

rederob said:


> The laughable bit about claims of getting the budget in balance recently have had nothing to to do with good management and everything to do with our resource base generating wealth, despite no value adding happening in Oz.




I've always thought it somewhat bizarre that governments seem so proud about their ability to get their own budget into anything other than a truly disastrous position and yet claim to be "managing" the entire economy.

If someone's going to actually manage the economy, most of which is in private hands, then it ought to be beyond question that their own house is in order.

A step further back from that, I've always found the argument about governments being no good at running relatively simple businesses to be a strange one. If you can't employ the right people and leave them to run the water or power supply well then pretty clearly you're going to be way out of your depth trying to run an entire government. The claim amounts to someone applying for a job as a general manager and arguing that they'd be a good GM on the basis that they were a terrible worker and an even worse supervisor. A strange logic indeed.


----------



## Value Collector (20 November 2019)

fiftyeight said:


> An increasing number of people's future labour (time) is owed to a few very.




if they choose to set their finances up in a way that they are living off debt then yes they will owe future labour to some one else, I don't think there is anything wrong with that.

when you say its owed to few, I think thats a bit wrong, I mean if you owe $15,000 on a CBA car loan and your Grandmother is sitting a $15,000 CBA Term deposit, technically you just owe your grandmother $15,000 and the bank is acting as a middle man managing the loan and taking the risk and being paid to do so.

Loans are just funded by everyday Aussies indirectly through deposits, So you might look at all this consumer debt as being funded by Billion dollar companies with Towers in the city, But in reality its the your neighbours in the suburbs that are funding your loans, especially as Peer to Peer lending takes off.


----------



## satanoperca (20 November 2019)

Value Collector said:


> Loans are just funded by everyday Aussies indirectly through deposits



Really?


----------



## Value Collector (20 November 2019)

satanoperca said:


> Really?




Mostly yeah, and bonds and some other securities.


----------



## satanoperca (20 November 2019)

Really.
"Banks obtain funding from four main sources: retail deposits, wholesale deposits, wholesale debt and equity. Excluding equity, around one-third of major banks’ funding is from retail deposits. These are sourced from households and small- to medium-sized businesses. Another third of non-equity funding is from wholesale deposits, such as those from large corporations, pension funds and the government. Short- and long-term wholesale debt account for most of the remaining third of funding."

"The share of funding sourced by the major banks from wholesale debt markets was little changed over 2018. Within this, the major banks shifted their funding slightly, moving away from short-term debt toward long-term debt (Graph 4). A large share of wholesale debt funding for the major banks is sourced from offshore markets, mainly in US dollars."

Just collecting some value.


----------



## Value Collector (20 November 2019)

satanoperca said:


> Really.
> "Banks obtain funding from four main sources: retail deposits, wholesale deposits, wholesale debt and equity. Excluding equity, around one-third of major banks’ funding is from retail deposits. These are sourced from households and small- to medium-sized businesses. Another third of non-equity funding is from wholesale deposits, such as those from large corporations, pension funds and the government. Short- and long-term wholesale debt account for most of the remaining third of funding."
> 
> "The share of funding sourced by the major banks from wholesale debt markets was little changed over 2018. Within this, the major banks shifted their funding slightly, moving away from short-term debt toward long-term debt (Graph 4). A large share of wholesale debt funding for the major banks is sourced from offshore markets, mainly in US dollars."
> ...




Pretty much just a long winded version of what I said,

Eg, deposits, bonds and some other securities.

glad you proved my point for me.

As your cut and paste describes, a whopping one third of funding comes from retail deposits, that would cover a ship load of retail lending, another third comes from wholesale deposits, which include Nan and pop’s super fund, that would begin to cover the business lending etc.


----------



## Jack Aubrey (20 November 2019)

tech/a said:


> The state will find you work---comrade!





Smurf1976 said:


> I've always thought it somewhat bizarre that governments seem so proud about their ability to get their own budget into anything other than a truly disastrous position and yet claim to be "managing" the entire economy.
> 
> If someone's going to actually manage the economy, most of which is in private hands, then it ought to be beyond question that their own house is in order.
> 
> A step further back from that, I've always found the argument about governments being no good at running relatively simple businesses to be a strange one. If you can't employ the right people and leave them to run the water or power supply well then pretty clearly you're going to be way out of your depth trying to run an entire government. The claim amounts to someone applying for a job as a general manager and arguing that they'd be a good GM on the basis that they were a terrible worker and an even worse supervisor. A strange logic indeed.



Absolutely.  The idea that Government's "run" the economy is puerile.  They can certainly have impacts on the broader economy in terms of the level and timing of spending (or tax), but even then the impact is overstated. 

Today's "Big Announcement" is an example -  infrastructure spending of $3.8 billion "brought forward" sounds a lot, but it is effectively zero stimulus in a 2 trillion dollar economy.  I don't think the punters (or most media commentators) know their millions from their billions from their trillions, and pollies on all sides make the most of it.  We would need about ten times that amount of money, preferably injected at the household level or in small business, to raise the economy out of the doldrums.

Where Government does make a difference is when they undertake genuine reform - like the Hawke/Keating stuff in the 1980s - floating the dollar, banking reform, CGT and FBT,  lowering tariffs and superannuation.  Those things have taken decades to have full effect.  Since 1996, the number of genuine economic reforms can be counted on the fingers of one hand - and you'd still have enough fingers left over to greet Tony Abbott from the other side of the street.  I'd list GST and the NDIS.  Gillard's Carbon Tax would be there too if it hadn't been repealed.  You can argue the merits of these individually, but they have changed the economy and people's lives.

As for Government's management of its own budget and programs, I think we use the wrong indicators and yardsticks.  Few programs are actually subject to genuine effectiveness or efficiency review and politicians take no notice anyway.  The "Welfare Card", as one example, has been reviewed and found to be costly and ineffective.  But it is "popular" with those who want to control the lives of welfare recipients (particularly if they are aboriginal) so we will see its expansion.  Personally, I think that one is a massive rort anyway with the only real beneficiary being the company that manages the program at more than $10,000 per user (don't ask who owns the company or how much they donate back to political parties).  "Job Search" agencies and "Offshore Detention Centres" have  similar stellar rationales.  We need much more public input and transparency around all Government spending.

Governments also smother their agencies in interference and multiple objectives.  Investment decisions are politicised and only rarely could they be compared to private sector criteria.  A successful, well managed government program is more likely to have its funding cut than one that is a rort for pollies to pork barrel with.  Look at these "Regional Jobs" programs.


----------



## Smurf1976 (20 November 2019)

Jack Aubrey said:


> Since 1996, the number of genuine economic reforms can be counted on the fingers of one hand




Trying to be politically neutral in making the comment but my overall perception is that Australian society, and politics is one part of that but certainly not the only part, has become far more conservative and risk averse than it was back in the Hawke - Keating days.

Hawke and Keating themselves would perhaps be viewed as too radical and politically incorrect by today's standards for the simple reason that whatever they thought, they weren't afraid to say it and nor were they afraid to scare the **** out of people if that's what needed to be done.

The lack of reform and overall progress since then, which is right across the board it's not limited to anything in particular, has a lot to do with our current economic stagnation I think.

We need to return to that era of bold and brave and throw out the conservatism if we're to fix the situation in my view. I say that intending to be neutral politically - I don't care which party does it but the current era of tip toeing around at snail's pace and not wanting to upset anyone ensures we're going slowly but surely backwards.


----------



## SirRumpole (20 November 2019)

Smurf1976 said:


> Trying to be politically neutral in making the comment but my overall perception is that Australian society, and politics is one part of that but certainly not the only part, has become far more conservative and risk averse than it was back in the Hawke - Keating days.
> 
> Hawke and Keating themselves would perhaps be viewed as too radical and politically incorrect by today's standards for the simple reason that whatever they thought, they weren't afraid to say it and nor were they afraid to scare the **** out of people if that's what needed to be done.
> 
> ...




Yes, Hawke and Keating made major structural reforms but they didn't usually take them to elections.

I can't recall them saying they would sell the Commonwealth bank or reduce tariffs or float the dollar as election policies , they just did it after they got in. So is this what it takes to achieve real reforms ? Lie, or at least don't tell the public what you are going to do , ie the Abbott approach "it's better to seek forgiveness than ask permission".


----------



## Jack Aubrey (20 November 2019)

Smurf1976 said:


> Trying to be politically neutral in making the comment but my overall perception is that Australian society, and politics is one part of that but certainly not the only part, has become far more conservative and risk averse than it was back in the Hawke - Keating days.
> 
> Hawke and Keating themselves would perhaps be viewed as too radical and politically incorrect by today's standards for the simple reason that whatever they thought, they weren't afraid to say it and nor were they afraid to scare the **** out of people if that's what needed to be done.
> 
> ...



So true.  Most of the so-called "reforms" proposed in the last twenty years have been tinkering around the edges and, if ever implemented at all, have been so watered down as to be meaningless.

The thing I most remember of the Hawke/Keating era (apart from Rumpole's observation of them not taking things to elections) was that they were fully prepared to take on "their own side" to get stuff through.  They weren't shy of a fight.

I can't even imagine the current government taking on their backers or the ALP doing something the unions objected to.  This has become a total no-go area now that leaders can be deposed between elections if the backroom boys or backers want it done.


----------



## sptrawler (20 November 2019)

SirRumpole said:


> Yes, Hawke and Keating made major structural reforms but they didn't usually take them to elections.
> 
> I can't recall them saying they would sell the Commonwealth bank or reduce tariffs or float the dollar as election policies , they just did it after they got in. So is this what it takes to achieve real reforms ? Lie, or at least don't tell the public what you are going to do , ie the Abbott approach "it's better to seek forgiveness than ask permission".



In reality, it is probably the only way, there are so many convoluted conflicts of interest now no one knows what anyone really stands for.
IMO policies on both sides, are  formulated to in some way enhance the Party backers positions and most adversely effect the engine room which is the tax payer.
I'm struggling to think of anything that has been done in recent history, to further Australia's productivity, by either side.
The current personal tax reductions are probably the first thing in 10 years IMO.


----------



## qldfrog (20 November 2019)

I know the left tendencies of some of the posters but keating hawks but also Howard with the GST, and he took it to the pool ,just to bring a bit of historical balance
But nothing i  agree since Rudd's mining tax started the Judas on both sides right and left


----------



## Smurf1976 (20 November 2019)

SirRumpole said:


> So is this what it takes to achieve real reforms ? Lie, or at least don't tell the public what you are going to do




Think of any major achievement of society, anything at the national or at least state or regional level, and invariably there's someone driving it would could be described as a benevolent dictator.

Their intentions are absolutely honest, it's for the greater good not personal gain, but ultimately they're going to do whatever it takes to make it happen and anyone standing in the way isn't going to stop them.

The alternative of trying to please everyone only works until it doesn't. At some point tough decisions are required in any serious situation and failing to make them ends with stagnation which is where we're at right now.

Some modest pain is a necessary evil, it clears out the dead wood and enables the tree to thrive. What we're doing though is refusing to prune or even to simply remove the obviously dead wood and the tree's looking increasingly sick as a result. The new branches can't grow properly due to all the mess from the dead and damaged ones which we're refusing to remove.

The evidence for that is I think all around you. Everything slowly puttering along but that's all, puttering along not getting anywhere really. Hence the minimal growth of wages, rising underemployment and so on.


----------



## SirRumpole (21 November 2019)

Smurf1976 said:


> The evidence for that is I think all around you. Everything slowly puttering along but that's all, puttering along not getting anywhere really. Hence the minimal growth of wages, rising underemployment and so on.




Both sides of politics are addicted to the population growth Ponzi scheme.

They both complain about low wages growth, but refuse to accept the basic economics of price, supply and demand. There is an over supply of labour, hence the price (wages) is stagnant. Employers know that if Person A is not prepared to work for low wages , there are lots of others that will. Hence the rise of part time insecure work, further depleting the ability to spend on anything else but essentials. Further evidence of this is that GDP per head is falling, we are all getting a lesser portion of the pie.

It's about time everyone realises that you can't increase population indefinitely and that other means must be found to solve the ageing population dilemma. Like keeping people healthier into middle / older years, encouraging part time work and job sharing as people get older, and maybe even recognising financially the role of grand parents in child minding and the value this has to the community.

Unfortunately the Coalition is too focussed on being cheap with money and Labor too focussed on the voting value they think they will get from immigrants that they have both lost sight of the long game.


----------



## sptrawler (21 November 2019)

SirRumpole said:


> Both sides of politics are addicted to the population growth Ponzi scheme.
> 
> They both complain about low wages growth, but refuse to accept the basic economics of price, supply and demand. There is an over supply of labour, hence the price (wages) is stagnant. Employers know that if Person A is not prepared to work for low wages , there are lots of others that will. Hence the rise of part time insecure work, further depleting the ability to spend on anything else but essentials. Further evidence of this is that GDP per head is falling, we are all getting a lesser portion of the pie.
> 
> ...



Maybe that is the long game? Get Australia like every other country, where everyone has to work to make ends meet.
To me there is no other explanation for all sides of politics wanting to keep maximum immigration, it builds the service base for employment, but also builds the labour base for competition.


----------



## Tyler Durden (2 December 2019)

I was lining up at a shop for the Black Friday sale and got talking to the lady in front of me. Somehow we started talking about Afterpay, and she mentioned how her friend lost her job recently and owes $2000 on her Afterpay account.


----------



## SirRumpole (4 December 2019)

More of what we already know, the economy is stalling.

https://www.abc.net.au/news/2019-12...e-teetering-on-the-edge-of-recession/11761358


----------



## moXJO (4 December 2019)

Im seeing a slight pick up in housing.


----------



## moXJO (4 December 2019)

sptrawler said:


> Maybe that is the long game? Get Australia like every other country, where everyone has to work to make ends meet.
> To me there is no other explanation for all sides of politics wanting to keep maximum immigration, it builds the service base for employment, but also builds the labour base for competition.




Thats the idea. Cheap loans to get money in the system and keep people working.


----------



## Jack Aubrey (4 December 2019)

moXJO said:


> Im seeing a slight pick up in housing.



Certainly seeing that pick up in house prices - but business investment, new car sales and retail continue to slide and wages are going nowhere.  Employment seems to be holding but everything is pretty fragile ATM and no sign of where the uptick is going to come from.  China's manufacturing is holding up despite the "Trade War" and that is underwriting iron ore prices and volumes.


----------



## moXJO (4 December 2019)

Jack Aubrey said:


> Certainly seeing that pick up in house prices - but business investment, new car sales and retail continue to slide and wages are going nowhere.  Employment seems to be holding but everything is pretty fragile ATM and no sign of where the uptick is going to come from.  China's manufacturing is holding up despite the "Trade War" and that is underwriting iron ore prices and volumes.



A lot of cranes over the skyline  in nsw again.  It's a really weird economy at the moment. Retail seems stuffed. 

I have to admit that I myself stopped buying the latest gadgets about a decade back. Even slowed down on buying tools. Might be an age thing though. Its not just the economy that seems stagnant for ideas. Products seem to be stagnant as well. 

"Puttering" was the perfect word to describe the situation.


----------



## Smurf1976 (4 December 2019)

moXJO said:


> I have to admit that I myself stopped buying the latest gadgets about a decade back. Even slowed down on buying tools. Might be an age thing though. Its not just the economy that seems stagnant for ideas. Products seem to be stagnant as well.
> 
> "Puttering" was the perfect word to describe the situation.




I think if you asked a hundred random people what they want but don't have, and specify that the answer can be literally anything so long as it's physically possible with current technology (so no landing on pluto etc), then there'd be very few who'd mention anything which involves a purchase in a retail shop of any kind.

What I expect you'd hear is:

Health - lose weight, get fit, drink less alcohol, eat better, etc.

Work - Improve their employment, business or as a step to get there education.

Finances - Reduce debt or increase investments.

Relationships - Find love or for some people end an existing relationship and move on.

Experiences - Travel mostly but also things like live entertainment, exploring nature and so on.

I'd be seriously surprised if anyone other than children thinking of Christmas presents or those who are genuinely quite poor would mention anything that's bought in a shop. Closest for most would be building materials for a house renovation etc.

Point being that even if someone (eg government) did hand everyone $1000 cash then I can't see too much of that going through the tills at bricks and mortar retailers. A bit would but in reality a lot would be saved / invested, used to repay debt or spent on holidays (mostly overseas), joining a gym or whatever. 

If the aim is to stimulate retail in actual shops then about the only thing I can see doing that is to increase the incomes of those at the bottom. Increase the minimum wage and the dole. They're really the only people who don't already have everything anyway.


----------



## sptrawler (4 December 2019)

Smurf1976 said:


> I think if you asked a hundred random people what they want but don't have, and specify that the answer can be literally anything so long as it's physically possible with current technology (so no landing on pluto etc), then there'd be very few who'd mention anything which involves a purchase in a retail shop of any kind.
> 
> What I expect you'd hear is:
> 
> ...




Or keep reducing personal taxes, which takes the onus off already stretched retailers, to find more money for wage increases.
The best idea I've heard is to bring forward the already legislated tax cuts.


----------



## SirRumpole (4 December 2019)

Smurf1976 said:


> If the aim is to stimulate retail in actual shops then about the only thing I can see doing that is to increase the incomes of those at the bottom. Increase the minimum wage and the dole. They're really the only people who don't already have everything anyway.




Exactly, but doing that would seem like more welfare , tax and spend, just what the LNP campaigned against.

Just another example of ideology getting in the way of what really needs to be done.


----------



## Jack Aubrey (4 December 2019)

sptrawler said:


> Or keep reducing personal taxes, which takes the onus off already stretched retailers, to find more money for wage increases.
> The best idea I've heard is to bring forward the already legislated tax cuts.



But the vast bulk of those tax cuts go to those in the top tax brackets (and they are permanent, unlike the offsets already delivered).  Nothing that has happened in the past twenty years suggests that those people (I am one of them) put back more than a tiny percentage of their tax cuts into the "real economy" - at least not in their own country.  I'd prefer any spending went to both those at the very bottom (Newstart), who will spend it in retail, or to infrastructure spending (including investments public education and health) where the money flows to contractors and other small businesses and increases national productivity over time.


----------



## frugal.rock (4 December 2019)

moXJO said:


> Im seeing a slight pick up in housing.



So am I, in Sydney anyway. 
As a Surveyor, my bread and butter depends on it. Larger developments are suffering from the lag, slow sales etc and am yet to see any substantial pickup in that domain, but give it another 12 months with current interest rates I reckon.
Maybe all the comrades are returning funds to the mother land like their propaganda has been calling for...eg, development in Beijing is showing no signs of slowing down.
F.Rock


----------



## sptrawler (4 December 2019)

Jack Aubrey said:


> But the vast bulk of those tax cuts go to those in the top tax brackets (and they are permanent, unlike the offsets already delivered).  Nothing that has happened in the past twenty years suggests that those people (I am one of them) put back more than a tiny percentage of their tax cuts into the "real economy" - at least not in their own country.  I'd prefer any spending went to both those at the very bottom (Newstart), who will spend it in retail, or to infrastructure spending (including investments public education and health) where the money flows to contractors and other small businesses and increases national productivity over time.



Reducing the tax rates at the lower scales and increasing Newstart, would help IMO.


----------



## moXJO (4 December 2019)

Smurf1976 said:


> I think if you asked a hundred random people what they want but don't have, and specify that the answer can be literally anything so long as it's physically possible with current technology (so no landing on pluto etc), then there'd be very few who'd mention anything which involves a purchase in a retail shop of any kind.
> 
> What I expect you'd hear is:
> 
> ...



The more I think about it,  I would say mobile phones killed a lot of entertainment purchases. Music, tv,  computers, gaming (to a degree), books, camera's and the list goes on.

These days life seems to revolve around them.


----------



## moXJO (4 December 2019)

frugal.rock said:


> So am I, in Sydney anyway.
> As a Surveyor, my bread and butter depends on it. Larger developments are suffering from the lag, slow sales etc and am yet to see any substantial pickup in that domain, but give it another 12 months with current interest rates I reckon.
> Maybe all the comrades are returning funds to the mother land like their propaganda has been calling for...eg, development in Beijing is showing no signs of slowing down.
> F.Rock



Yeah I'm just out of the city and its heating up again.


----------



## jbocker (6 December 2019)

Went to the movies in a big theatre yesterday the only staff I had to confront was the popcorn check out person.  Didn't even have a ticket checker ..no one ripping tickets. Could have just walked in.
How cut down do you want to get???
I will post a photo later from the theatre that made me sad.


----------



## jbocker (6 December 2019)

I know there are PLENTY of examples of this but it saddened me to go to the old movie ticket purchase counter and see this. No people but there is still the counter where they once were. I miss the humans, even 
	

		
			
		

		
	



	

		
			
		

		
	
 that one with the snotty nose and didn't give a sheet.


----------



## SirRumpole (6 December 2019)

jbocker said:


> I know there are PLENTY of examples of this but it saddened me to go to the old movie ticket purchase counter and see this. No people but there is still the counter where they once were. I miss the humans, even
> 
> 
> 
> ...




I'm surprised that movie theatres are still in business given the range of home theatre systems on the market these days.


----------



## Smurf1976 (11 December 2019)

Just heard that Harris Scarfe has gone into administration.

HS is a chain of department stores best known in SA but also operates in Vic and Tas.

In terms of market position they’re below DJ’s or Myer but above Kmart or Big W.


----------



## tech/a (11 December 2019)

Sad
Was in there on the weekend shopping.
Life is now so impersonal.


----------



## jbocker (11 December 2019)

By chance I had a minor observation within Woolies that left me wondering if there may be a scam operating procedure at play.
My elderly Mother in Law has a some assistance from providers and has been giving a small gift box of nice chocolate to each of her providers. Wife and I have been buying these on her behalf. Cost 6.30 each last week. On the weekend she realised she needed another. Went to Woolies on Saturday and they cost $8. No big deal except the wife commented to a staff person they were cheaper last week. The staff person said they will be back 6.30 after the weekend.
So are prices put up on weekends when the poor full time workers shop?!
Just a chance observation but wondered how much of this may be about. Anyone else noticed similar?


----------



## greggles (11 December 2019)

Smurf1976 said:


> If the aim is to stimulate retail in actual shops then about the only thing I can see doing that is to increase the incomes of those at the bottom. Increase the minimum wage and the dole. They're really the only people who don't already have everything anyway.






SirRumpole said:


> Exactly, but doing that would seem like more welfare , tax and spend, just what the LNP campaigned against.
> 
> Just another example of ideology getting in the way of what really needs to be done.




Why not just keep increasing the tax free threshold? Wouldn't it have the same effect of putting more money in the pockets of low income earners?

Fewer people having to submit tax returns means less workload for the ATO and those extra dollars would be converted into retail sales and GST revenue for the government. Not to mention making life a little easier for those on low incomes.

The raising of the tax free threshold from $6,800 to $18,200 was an inspired move in my opinion. It's welfare in a sense, but not in the sense of handing out money. It lets low income earners keep more of the money they earn, most of which will end up spent at retail outlets or on basic necessities.

Keep increasing it and you'll have more money injected into the economy. Low income earners generally aren't property owners, so lower interest rates don't impact them.


----------



## qldfrog (11 December 2019)

greggles said:


> Why not just keep increasing the tax free threshold? Wouldn't it have the same effect of putting more money in the pockets of low income earners?
> 
> Fewer people having to submit tax returns means less workload for the ATO and those extra dollars would be converted into retail sales and GST revenue for the government. Not to mention making life a little easier for those on low incomes.
> 
> ...



You just forget that for the left, government must be in the loop
To blackmail and keep hostages and dependant addicted to welfare
Raising the tax free threshold also means less administration and so less gov employees
Both the above explains Labour position, but i agree lower the rate, increase threshold, simplify the system and the country wins


----------



## qldfrog (11 December 2019)

Back to HS collapsed, i saw their store in Chermside last week.thry were present in qld


----------



## SirRumpole (12 December 2019)

Smurf1976 said:


> Just heard that Harris Scarfe has gone into administration.
> 
> HS is a chain of department stores best known in SA but also operates in Vic and Tas.
> 
> In terms of market position they’re below DJ’s or Myer but above Kmart or Big W.




Harris Scarfe was supposed to open a store in Orange NSW to replace a departing Myers store. Just shows how much the High end stores are struggling. 

BigW and KMart are still around the Orange area selling cheap junk but they are struggling too. If trade does not pick up this Christmas, I fear for the continuity of other retailers


----------



## Tyler Durden (17 December 2019)

Walking along Crown Street in Surry Hills/Darlinghurst this morning, I saw 7 empty stores within two blocks with a 'For Lease' sign on the window. I thought to myself, "so this is what a recession looks like".


----------



## moXJO (17 December 2019)

*Retail sales in Australia were flat in October 2019, following a 0.2 percent rise in the previous month and missing market expectations of a 0.3 percent gain. Declines in clothing, footwear and personal accessory retailing (-0.8 percent), department stores (-0.8 percent) and household goods (-0.2 percent) were offset by gains in cafes, restaurants and takeaway food services (0.4 percent) and food retailing (0.1 percent). Meantime, other retailing was relatively unchanged. Retail Sales MoM in Australia averaged 0.47 percent from 1982 until 2019, reaching an all time high of 8.10 percent in June of 2000 and a record low of -10.60 percent in July of 2000.*


----------



## moXJO (17 December 2019)

Not a lot of people spending in the shops over the weekend (Unusual this close to Christmas). But there were a lot on Thursday night. 

Sales staff are suffering through my haggling a lot longer than they use to. I'm getting some killer deals.


----------



## SirRumpole (17 December 2019)

The collapse of a major building supplies company is more worrying news.

https://www.abc.net.au/news/2019-12-17/400-jobs-lost-as-building-supplies-company-goes-bust/11807006


----------



## sptrawler (17 December 2019)

SirRumpole said:


> The collapse of a major building supplies company is more worrying news.
> 
> https://www.abc.net.au/news/2019-12-17/400-jobs-lost-as-building-supplies-company-goes-bust/11807006



Well I guess building supplies will be suffering, a burst housing bubble and the crumbling apartments issues, has to have a negative effect.
What I'm also noticing is, the young seem to have moved on from designer footwear, tee shirts etc, to big phone plans, drinking and eating out.


----------



## Tyler Durden (17 December 2019)

sptrawler said:


> Well I guess building supplies will be suffering, a burst housing bubble and the crumbling apartments issues, has to have a negative effect.
> What I'm also noticing is, the young seem to have moved on from designer footwear, tee shirts etc, to big phone plans, drinking and eating out.




Funny you say this. I collect sneakers and the Adidas Yeezys have been the 'must haves' for the last few years. They retail at $340 and resale ranges from $400 up to $1200. People line up hours for them and they are sold out all the time.

However, with the last two Yeezy releases, there has been a noticeably smaller crowd lining up to buy them, to the point where they're not even selling out anymore. I'm not sure if this is because the sneaker companies have just flooded the market with more sneakers than people can wear/collect, or if the rich Chinese international students no longer have the money to pay resale prices.


----------



## sptrawler (17 December 2019)

Tyler Durden said:


> Funny you say this. I collect sneakers and the Adidas Yeezys have been the 'must haves' for the last few years. They retail at $340 and resale ranges from $400 up to $1200. People line up hours for them and they are sold out all the time.
> 
> However, with the last two Yeezy releases, there has been a noticeably smaller crowd lining up to buy them, to the point where they're not even selling out anymore. I'm not sure if this is because the sneaker companies have just flooded the market with more sneakers than people can wear/collect, or if the rich Chinese international students no longer have the money to pay resale prices.



I've only noticed it in the last 12-18 months, while travelling here and O/S with the wife, there just doesn't seem to be that trendy dress thing happening.
The Nike's, Converse, Adidas, Billabong, Quicksilver, Rusty, Mambo thing isn't happening, all the young just seem to be looking at phones, not at each other.
So I guess the dress to impress thing has lost its wow factor, now they hardly talk let alone look at each other, how many megapixels your phone camera has and what operating system it is running seems to be the in thing today.


----------



## moXJO (18 December 2019)

sptrawler said:


> I've only noticed it in the last 12-18 months, while travelling here and O/S with the wife, there just doesn't seem to be that trendy dress thing happening.
> The Nike's, Converse, Adidas, Billabong, Quicksilver, Rusty, Mambo thing isn't happening, all the young just seem to be looking at phones, not at each other.
> So I guess the dress to impress thing has lost its wow factor, now they hardly talk let alone look at each other, how many megapixels your phone camera has and what operating system it is running seems to be the in thing today.



Just for a laugh: all the young guys round here are getting mullet haircuts. The worse the better it seems. Must be some kind of joke/trend.


----------



## qldfrog (9 January 2020)

https://www.news.com.au/finance/bus...s/news-story/97799125c891a8844875c8221bc47f4a
And
https://www.news.com.au/finance/bus...s/news-story/0bde703599b0301751129e78630364b7
Funny how i need to go to news ltd and dodge Kardashian pictures to get that
But the abc does not seems to care
All good in paradise
If alcohol and gaming go down.


----------



## PZ99 (9 January 2020)

https://www.abc.net.au/news/2020-01...hrink-its-retail-network-shut-stores/11854618

https://www.abc.net.au/news/2020-01-09/mcwilliams-wines-goes-into-administration/11855426

But I like this one the best > https://www.abc.net.au/news/2020-01-09/bushfire-destroyed-home-then-owner-wins-lottery/11855640


----------



## Humid (9 January 2020)

He obviously didn’t read the bit about search engine bias


----------



## qldfrog (9 January 2020)

PZ99 said:


> https://www.abc.net.au/news/2020-01...hrink-its-retail-network-shut-stores/11854618
> 
> https://www.abc.net.au/news/2020-01-09/mcwilliams-wines-goes-into-administration/11855426
> 
> But I like this one the best > https://www.abc.net.au/news/2020-01-09/bushfire-destroyed-home-then-owner-wins-lottery/11855640



Yeap ultimately was there on ABC too.you can add Bardot as brand which is heading to the scrapyard.,


----------



## basilio (11 January 2020)

Laura Tingle has an outstanding article which starts to explore the massive ongoing effects of the bushfires .
*In the face of a bushfire catastrophe, our national conversation is still run by politics*
https://www.abc.net.au/news/2020-01...sis-just-dont-mention-climate-change/11857590


----------



## qldfrog (11 January 2020)

basilio said:


> Laura Tingle has an outstanding article which starts to explore the massive ongoing effects of the bushfires .
> *In the face of a bushfire catastrophe, our national conversation is still run by politics*
> https://www.abc.net.au/news/2020-01...sis-just-dont-mention-climate-change/11857590



Wrong thread Basilio?


----------



## moXJO (12 January 2020)

Saw a friend just as he was literally closing his bookstore down. Retail is already hard, but books are well and truly on the way out.  Finally couldn't take it anymore and had to get out. Only select retail stores are doing any good at the moment. Still getting mixed messages. It's either really up in trade, or a ghost town.


----------



## PZ99 (13 January 2020)

To survive in retail now you need to own the building you're operating in - no renting,
You need to earn money online (trading etc), and you need a 3-D printer


----------



## sptrawler (13 January 2020)

PZ99 said:


> To survive in retail now you need to own the building you're operating in - no renting,
> You need to earn money online (trading etc), and you need a 3-D printer



So true PZ99, I was reading somewhere online sales in the U.S went up over 10% last year and as the logistics for delivery improves, I can see that life isn't going to get easier for bricks and mortar retailers.


----------



## sptrawler (13 January 2020)

moXJO said:


> Saw a friend just as he was literally closing his bookstore down. Retail is already hard, but books are well and truly on the way out.  Finally couldn't take it anymore and had to get out. Only select retail stores are doing any good at the moment. Still getting mixed messages. It's either really up in trade, or a ghost town.



My daughter has worked in a library for the past 18years, last year they gutted it and now the books only make a small portion of the building, now it is a 'community information hub'.
Well not only did it gut the books, the older women working there left in droves.
I think your friend did the right thing, before he lost his shirt.


----------



## Smurf1976 (13 January 2020)

Here goes another one:




> 63 Curious Planet shops set to close




https://www.adelaidenow.com.au/busi...r/news-story/60e1dec1ba5eb495abf1a00d028af913


----------



## Smurf1976 (13 January 2020)

sptrawler said:


> My daughter has worked in a library for the past 18years, last year they gutted it and now the books only make a small portion of the building, now it is a 'community information hub'




An interesting point is that say "library" and people think immediately of books but other things like video rental stores were libraries of a sort too. Also all the radio stations used to have what they called a "sound library" - a room full of records, all cataloged and which looked much like a book library. Corporate and government record keeping could also be considered much the same - a room full of files and people managing it.

The actual book libraries have lasted longer but the rest are gone pretty much completely. Music's all on computer, radio stations simply don't have physical sound libraries anymore or at least the ones I've seen don't, and there's very few DVD rental shops left in business. Likewise corporate stuff it's either gone now, often digitised at the time of a physical office move, or it's only being retained as an historical thing with nothing added to it and is closed so far as current business is concerned.

The replacement of all that stuff by computers isn't quite complete but it's close enough to consider physical media of any sort as a niche thing these days.


----------



## fergee (13 January 2020)

Smurf1976 said:


> The replacement of all that stuff by computers isn't quite complete but it's close enough to consider physical media of any sort as a niche thing these days.




After reading this statement it made me think me of @SirRumpole 's thread on alternative assets/memorabilia. Certain books may be a very good investment over the long run especially if you will hand them down to the next generation.


----------



## Johny5 (14 January 2020)

I was surprised a few years ago when vinyl records experienced somewhat of a Renaissance, maybe the same thing can happen to printed books, well at least fiction and childrens books, but I think printed technical and other non fiction books are just about dead.


----------



## fergee (14 January 2020)

Johny5 said:


> I was surprised a few years ago when vinyl records experienced somewhat of a Renaissance, maybe the same thing can happen to printed books, well at least fiction and childrens books, but I think printed technical and other non fiction books are just about dead.



I was thinking more along the lines of first editions for books but Yes @Johny5 you are right any sort of technical books are a thing of the past as it is now all online. Funny you should mention vinyl records making a come back. I have even noticed some collectibility in CDs now, if you know where to buy and sell them for the right prices


----------



## sptrawler (14 January 2020)

fergee said:


> I was thinking more along the lines of first editions for books but Yes @Johny5 you are right any sort of technical books are a thing of the past as it is now all online. Funny you should mention vinyl records making a come back. I have even noticed some collectibility in CDs now, if you know where to buy and sell them for the right prices



Along the same lines, I was reading that it would be a good idea to start and pick up DVD's that you think your kids might enjoy at a later date, as with streaming a lot of movies wont be available and eventually will be lost.


----------



## Smurf1976 (14 January 2020)

Johny5 said:


> I think printed technical and other non fiction books are just about dead.




Can't even give them away and I mean that literally.

If you clear out someone's house, eg elderly person who's passed away or gone into aged care, or even simply want to get rid of your own stuff then you'll quickly find that they have zero value. Can't sell them, nobody turns up even if they're literally give away and charities won't take them either.

Fiction books still have some value though if they're recent or older ones if the author or the book itself is/was famous.

Only technical ones of value are niche interest things of an historical nature. The odd such thing has a significant value but only if you can find the right buyer which is usually someone who's great grandfather worked on the thing that's the subject of the book etc.


----------



## Dona Ferentes (14 January 2020)

printed on vellum, will last a thousand years. Acid free, a little less


----------



## fergee (14 January 2020)

Smurf1976 said:


> Can't even give them away and I mean that literally.
> 
> If you clear out someone's house, eg elderly person who's passed away or gone into aged care, or even simply want to get rid of your own stuff then you'll quickly find that they have zero value. Can't sell them, nobody turns up even if they're literally give away and charities won't take them either.
> 
> ...



You have to pay to get rid of them a lot of the time. The niche interest ones of a historical nature are good especially if they include hand made prints of places and people.



sptrawler said:


> Along the same lines, I was reading that it would be a good idea to start and pick up DVD's that you think your kids might enjoy at a later date, as with streaming a lot of movies wont be available and eventually will be lost.




DVDs are so cheap now you can pick them up for less than $1. I agree they will be lost or locked away in a subscription based service.

The problem with collectables like these are having an appropriate space to store them and an understanding partner 



Dona Ferentes said:


> printed on vellum, will last a thousand years. Acid free, a little less




You know your stuff! These types of books are already pretty valuable another couple of decades should see some real gains as paper based reading material drys up.


----------



## Smurf1976 (14 January 2020)

Regarding DVD's etc, something I'll note from personal experience fairly recently:

Found some old B&W family photos circa ~1910. No problem at all since I need no special knowledge or equipment to look at the photos and read the hand written information beside them.

Also have some 8mm films made circa 1960. Have the projector too but it doesn't run. Realistically though a film projector is a purely mechanical and electrical device, there's zero electronics involved, and it's not going to be impossible to get it going. I haven't opened it up yet but almost certainly it's just going be a case of a perished drive belt or a broken wire and that's fixable stuff.

Now does anyone here expect that a DVD will in practice be playable in 100 or even 30 years' time? Sure the disc might work but are you going to have a working player to use it with?

Even if you did keep a DVD player with the DVD's, the electronics will deteriorate and the chance that someone a century from now can get a picture out of it is incredibly unlikely since even if they did get the player itself working, almost certainly no TV, monitor or whatever sort of display is around at the time will accept what will then be a well and truly obsolete input signal.

VHS and 3.5" floppy discs were both still current technology early this century but who here still owns equipment to use any tapes or discs they come across? 

Personally I've got a VHS machine that runs but no longer have any 3.5" floppy drives. I'm probably the exception there though since I doubt that the average home still has a working VHS machine plus the required cables to connect it to any TV they also own. Some but most wouldn't these days.

Or go back a bit further. Who's got a working 5.25" drive and a suitable computer with it? Very few would still be able to use one of those today but they were still current technology less than 30 years ago.

In theory digital forms are far more permanent than anything printed etc but in reality nobody's going to be looking at any photo that anyone takes today a century later unless it's printed. The chance of it surviving in digital form, and that someone actually finds it and has the ability to look at it, seems incredibly unlikely.

A long way off topic though.....


----------



## qldfrog (14 January 2020)

Except in Qld where silverfish, termites and mould will make sure it will never reach 1000y


----------



## sptrawler (14 January 2020)

We did say things were improving didn't we, well the credit card debt has dropped to 2006 levels, now they know where the tax cuts and interest rate drops have gone.

https://mozo.com.au/credit-cards/articles/aussie-credit-card-debt-is-it-dropping-or-jumping

From the article:
_According to official statistics released by the RBA, Australians’ balances accruing interest in November 2019 came to a total of $27.20 billion, $2.45 billion less than in November 2018.  

Because of this reduction, it makes last November the lowest point for the country’s personal credit card debt since 2006, yep, that’s over a decade ago_.

Like I've said before, everyone is happy with the junk they have, so most aren't replacing it.
To get people spending, they are going to have to push the E.V's harder, I reckon.


----------



## sptrawler (14 January 2020)

We did say things were improving didn't we, well the credit card debt has dropped to 2006 levels, now they know where the tax cuts and interest rate drops have gone.

https://mozo.com.au/credit-cards/articles/aussie-credit-card-debt-is-it-dropping-or-jumping

From the article:
_According to official statistics released by the RBA, Australians’ balances accruing interest in November 2019 came to a total of $27.20 billion, $2.45 billion less than in November 2018.  

Because of this reduction, it makes last November the lowest point for the country’s personal credit card debt since 2006, yep, that’s over a decade ago_.
Like I said before, everyone is happy with the junk they have, so don't need to spend anything.
To get people spending, they are going to have to push the E.V's harder. IMO


----------



## PZ99 (15 January 2020)

sptrawler said:


> We did say things were improving didn't we, well the credit card debt has dropped to 2006 levels, now they know where the tax cuts and interest rate drops have gone.
> 
> https://mozo.com.au/credit-cards/articles/aussie-credit-card-debt-is-it-dropping-or-jumping
> 
> ...



I see that as a positive although it probably says more about people transitioning to BNPL than topping up for the rainy day. 

I keep getting reminded by 99 about the evil of credit card debt when she keeps asking me for money I don't have


----------



## qldfrog (15 January 2020)

PZ99 said:


> I see that as a positive although it probably says more about people transitioning to BNPL than topping up for the rainy day.
> 
> I keep getting reminded by 99 about the evil of credit card debt when she keeps asking me for money I don't have



I see it as a positive also but am afraid you are right
Different lenders, not less debt
And might be harder to track on a national scale


----------



## sptrawler (15 January 2020)

The thing is the BNPL still has to be paid or reported on their balance sheet, it will be interesting to see if the debt has just moved, or been removed.


----------



## jbocker (15 January 2020)

Smurf1976 said:


> In theory digital forms are far more permanent than anything printed etc but in reality nobody's going to be looking at any photo that anyone takes today a century later unless it's printed. The chance of it surviving in digital form, and that someone actually finds it and has the ability to look at it, seems incredibly unlikely.




I have some printed tax receipts that cannot be viewed after 12 months! Due to inks fading. Very frustrating.


----------



## BlindSquirrel (15 January 2020)

jbocker said:


> I have some printed tax receipts that cannot be viewed after 12 months! Due to inks fading. Very frustrating.



We scan any receipts when we get a large purchase for this reason.


----------



## Belli (15 January 2020)

jbocker said:


> I have some printed tax receipts that cannot be viewed after 12 months! Due to inks fading. Very frustrating.




If the firm offers it, I get a link to the receipt via SMS and then download it to cloud.  All major ones which have are printed are scanned to cloud.  I think there is a phone app which you can use to scan them but I'm not too sure about that.

I even scan any traffic infringements I get just to remind myself of the dumb things I do!


----------



## Smurf1976 (15 January 2020)

In Today’s business troubles news:

Mosaic Brands, which operates retail clothing outlets under various brand names, has reported an 8% sales decline compared to the same time last year across its 1379 stores nationally.

Unrelated to that, a major nightclub in the Adelaide CBD has abruptly shut down and gone into voluntary administration citing financial reasons, ongoing losses, tough competition and so on. The place in question being HQ, now in Hindley St after previously operating at 1 North Tce.

Now I’ll take the clothing retailer more seriously than the failure of a single nightclub albeit a rather large one but nonetheless it’s yet another business that hasn’t been going well and viewed in the overall context it’s another sign of a struggling economy.

The overall pattern here, an almost constant stream of significant businesses failing or reporting losses or substantial drops in sales volume, is clearly a trend and looks rather too much like ~1990-91 to me. That was a pattern back then, another day another business in the news as struggling or outright closed.

I note that it seems to affect a broad cross section of society. For example there’d be close to zero overlap in the customer base of the numerous builders which have failed versus the customer base of a mass market nightclub. So it’s not limited to just one section of society, it’s looking fairly broad based.

To the extent there’s a common element well department stores, builders, fashion retailers and nightclubs do have one thing in common. They’re all mostly or entirely reliant on discretionary spending by consumers.


----------



## Belli (15 January 2020)

On a similar theme I was told McWilliams Wines recently went into administration even after a capital raising last year.  I haven't checked if it is true or not.  Non-drinker so at that level it's of no interest to me.


----------



## SirRumpole (15 January 2020)

Smurf1976 said:


> In Today’s business troubles news:
> 
> Mosaic Brands, which operates retail clothing outlets under various brand names, has reported an 8% sales decline compared to the same time last year across its 1379 stores nationally.
> 
> ...




Is it just us (Australia) I wonder, or are other developed nations in the same boat ?

Very important to find out, either other nations as well as us are feeling the brunt of globalisation or we are just being stupid and behind the pack when it comes to innovation and entrepreneurship.


----------



## sptrawler (15 January 2020)

SirRumpole said:


> Is it just us (Australia) I wonder, or are other developed nations in the same boat ?
> 
> Very important to find out, either other nations as well as us are feeling the brunt of globalisation or we are just being stupid and behind the pack when it comes to innovation and entrepreneurship.



I think the industrialization index that was posted earlier in the discussion explains that, Thailand and a lot of other Countries are developing a technology based economy, as opposed to our resource/service based economy, this in turn has been reflected in our currency exchange rates.
They also don't have the burden of a welfare system, therefore there is more money to further expand their economy, a lot of the developing Countries that benefitted from the Lima agreement in 1975 are now well and truly ahead of Australia.
This is also the underlying issue with China and the U.S trade war, Australia really does need to wake up, all that seems to be happening is a process of dumbing down children to accept a new reality. Just my opinion.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/United_Nations_Industrial_Development_Organization
Here is an RBA discription of our economy a bit old but show the trend.

https://www.rba.gov.au/publications/bulletin/2010/sep/pdf/bu-0910-1.pdf

The other issue facing Western Australia (I don't know about over East), is the coming down from the mining boom, 5 years ago everyone and his dog was driving around in a $70,000 ute with two jetski's or a boat on the back. That lifestyle had to end and normality had to return, with it a lot of retailers also cop the brunt of the shift.


----------



## BlindSquirrel (15 January 2020)

sptrawler said:


> Australia really does need to wake up, all that seems to be happening is a process of dumbing down children to accept a new reality. Just my opinion.
> https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/United_Nations_Industrial_Development_Organization
> Here is an RBA discription of our economy a bit old but show the trend.
> 
> ...




With the state of the education system, at home we're trying to actively teach our kids what the local school doesn't have time to (because they're focusing on the disruptive kids that come from disadvantaged homes). We can't or don't want to afford the fees for private schooling so what else can we do? 

In WA we also had the construction sector that held the line for a few years after the mining boom died down and whispers in that industry are expecting it to remain at this level or lower for the next few years, even as mining picks up again while the oversupply is taken up.


----------



## sptrawler (15 January 2020)

Smurf1976 said:


> In Today’s business troubles news:
> 
> Mosaic Brands, which operates retail clothing outlets under various brand names, has reported an 8% sales decline compared to the same time last year across its 1379 stores nationally.
> 
> To the extent there’s a common element well department stores, builders, fashion retailers and nightclubs do have one thing in common. They’re all mostly or entirely reliant on discretionary spending by consumers.



On the same theme, Jeans west has gone into administration.

https://www.smartcompany.com.au/industries/retail/jeanswest-administration/
From the article:
_The business, which employs 988 people and has 146 stores across the country, is known for its denim products and maternity wear.

Jeanswest also has a number of international stores, including in New Zealand, which have not been affected by the Australian administration_.

I must admit I haven't used them for years, Just Jeans is where we shop for jeans.


----------



## Smurf1976 (15 January 2020)

sptrawler said:


> On the same theme, Jeans west has gone into administration.




Harris Scarfe struggling to survive and closing many stores, EB games closing many stores, nightclubs and pubs etc closing, multiple national chain clothing retailers either going into administration or saying they're struggling and that's just in the past few weeks.

Individually the could be dismissed as outmoded business models or bad management or whatever but there's too many now, and they're starting to come just too quickly, to deny that there's an underlying problem.


----------



## Smurf1976 (15 January 2020)

A thought just occurred:

Friday last week = EB games closing multiple stores (national). 

Monday = Curious Planet closing all stores (national). 

Tuesday = Mosaic Brands, which operates 1379 clothing stores under various names, says sales are down 8% year on year (national). 

Wednesday = HQ nightclub (Adelaide) and Jeanswest (national) both go into administration. 

So it's literally a daily event at the moment and that alone is going to fuel concerns among the masses as they keep hearing of business closures literally every weekday.


----------



## Smurf1976 (15 January 2020)

SirRumpole said:


> Is it just us (Australia) I wonder, or are other developed nations in the same boat ?




I don't know but I think from the perspective of consumers in Australia the basic problem is:

1. Income. Wages are stagnant, there's a problem with underemployment and those relying in income from investments have seen the option of getting a return on cash disappear almost entirely.

2. Essential costs. Houses, rent, electricity, gas, water, any form of insurance etc all going up relative to incomes.

3. Concern about the future. The situation's obvious enough that even those with zero interest in economics or politics would be aware of it on the economic side. Then there's issues like climate change, warnings that the fires will send food prices right up and concerns about lack of leadership politically. 

Put it all together and consumers are shutting their wallets. Coles and Woolies etc won't go bust but pretty much anyone selling non-essentials is in at least some danger I'd think.


----------



## Dona Ferentes (15 January 2020)

Belli said:


> On a similar theme I was told McWilliams Wines recently went into administration even after a capital raising last year.  ..  Non-drinker so at that level it's of no interest to me.



liking a red wine though not McWilliams, in conversation with wine retailers (plural), they bemoaned the appearance of new brands, no provenance, jokey labels, aimed at the hipster market.  Brand and margin destruction, by McWilliams. Last throw of the dice, was the impression I got.


----------



## tinhat (15 January 2020)

I was really shocked by the McWilliams news given it has always been a family owned stalwart of the industry. Their Mount Pleasant wines, pioneered by Maurice O'Shea are a personal favourite.

https://mountpleasantwines.com.au/pages/about-maurice-oshea


----------



## sptrawler (15 January 2020)

The MIL will be devastated, she has been drinking McWilliams cream sherry for as long as I've known her and that is 45 years.
Jeez I think I need a drink.


----------



## qldfrog (15 January 2020)

Belli said:


> On a similar theme I was told McWilliams Wines recently went into administration even after a capital raising last year.  I haven't checked if it is true or not.  Non-drinker so at that level it's of no interest to me.



Yes , in administration indeed


----------



## sptrawler (15 January 2020)

sptrawler said:


> On the same theme, Jeans west has gone into administration.
> .



On further reading, Jeans West is an Aussie original, that is now Hong Kong owned.
Which doesn't make it any easier for the aussie workers, but might reduce predatory buy outs in Australia, because obviously legislation wont.


----------



## jbocker (15 January 2020)

I haven't heard whether rents have dropped at commercial, shopping sites. Anyone heard of such? I have baled out of Scentre (SCG) a while ago thinking Shopping centres might suffer. An unjustified fear it would seem as their price has held quite stable.


----------



## sptrawler (15 January 2020)

jbocker said:


> I haven't heard whether rents have dropped at commercial, shopping sites. Anyone heard of such? I have baled out of Scentre (SCG) a while ago thinking Shopping centres might suffer. An unjustified fear it would seem as their price has held quite stable.



I would think shopping centres, will suffer from the online sedentary lifestyle choices, that seem to be engulfing the World.
Why walk and interupt your minecraft game, when you can pause and order your $hit between cones, just the way it is going at the moment, no doubt it will change when their feet turn blue.
But I personally have backed out of discretionary companies, except for WES.
Just because there are too many sellers, chasing the same buyer and more entering the same market place.
Picking winners is getting difficult. IMO


----------



## sptrawler (16 January 2020)

My mate rang me tonight, he is a 64 year old who works on the council verge collection, well he is beside himself with despair.
He takes the job seriously, never takes a sickie unless he is really crook always tries to fit in, to get the job done. 
Well he reckons the job is going to $hit, because all the younger workers just walk off the job when it gets hard and say they have family issues. The problem is the job doesn't go away, it just gets further behind, he says they are already one week behind and they are only two weeks into the new year.
The problem is, all that will happen is the council rates will increase and the work output will decrease.
It really is all becoming a problem, will it end?
He is so fed up with the younger guys being lazy, he is going to pull the pin, when he wanted to work untill 67. 
Australia has lost the plot. IMO


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## sptrawler (16 January 2020)

By the way I couldn't say much, I retired 8 years ago, so I just thought he had done well to hang on so long.


----------



## jbocker (16 January 2020)

sptrawler said:


> My mate rang me tonight, he is a 64 year old who works on the council verge collection, well he is beside himself with despair.
> He takes the job seriously, never takes a sickie unless he is really crook always tries to fit in, to get the job done.
> Well he reckons the job is going to $hit, because all the younger workers just walk off the job when it gets hard and say they have family issues. The problem is the job doesn't go away, it just gets further behind, he says they are already one week behind and they are only two weeks into the new year.
> The problem is, all that will happen is the council rates will increase and the work output will decrease.
> ...



I admire your mates integrity. Many could dismiss that job as being unworthy of their commitment. He is  fine example of integrity to society. While he remains in that position I truly hope he is an inspiration of integrity and a commentator of the importance of their role to his co-workers.


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## Smurf1976 (16 January 2020)

sptrawler said:


> My mate rang me tonight, he is a 64 year old who works on the council verge collection, well he is beside himself with despair




I'm one of those. Get the job done.

The deal was always pretty simple. Smurf will do it, pay to match, if I've got a question then I expect an answer no exceptions.

Never caused any real drama and I was always willing to give literally anything a go including things that were totally unrelated to my actual job. If it needs to be done well it needs to be done.


----------



## PZ99 (16 January 2020)

sptrawler said:


> My mate rang me tonight, he is a 64 year old who works on the council verge collection, well he is beside himself with despair.
> He takes the job seriously, never takes a sickie unless he is really crook always tries to fit in, to get the job done.
> Well he reckons the job is going to $hit, because all the younger workers just walk off the job when it gets hard and say they have family issues. The problem is the job doesn't go away, it just gets further behind, he says they are already one week behind and they are only two weeks into the new year.
> The problem is, all that will happen is the council rates will increase and the work output will decrease.
> ...



The plot is lost because employers discriminate against people like your mate in favour of 
younger workers simply because of their age whilst overlooking their commitment.

Employment agencies are even worse in this regard - once you're over 40 you've got buckley's chance of even being accepted into the agency - let alone be offered any work.

One of the things I did like about the Abbott 2014 budget was a policy to sponsor employers a few thousand to take on the older workers. Mot sure what came of it though.


----------



## qldfrog (16 January 2020)

I do believe the policy still exist..50y+ i think
My view is that past a certain age, you have to go independent: contractor ir own business:
You are too old aka expensive, you ask questions...difficult ones as relevant and common sense, you can not fit within the employee mould as preferred..
So you get out, you let the youngsters **** a big way usually with full management support, then you get a call...
You sort the crxp and delivery vs high dollars
Next time, if mgt is wise, they call you first for consulting, if not: rince and repeat
For you, higher income, less workload, less commitment and you can move to what you like and choose your customers
But you still need some customers..so companie doing some actual technical work, and profitable....not just coffee shops and online shoes


----------



## Johny5 (17 January 2020)

PZ99 said:


> The plot is lost because employers discriminate against people like your mate in favour of
> younger workers simply because of their age whilst overlooking their commitment.




A friend working for one of the big four banks had the retrenchment broom come through middle of last year, he escaped the broom but many older employees didn't (he's in his early 40s) and were replaced mostly by under 30s. He is gradually been driven crazy by other employees incompetence, he has to fix their errors constantly, he is called even on his days off to answer inane questions from his coworkers. He has started looking around for another job but as he has spent almost all his working life in banks he will probably only be able to get a job (well paying) in another bank, which could very well have the same inexperienced staff problems.


----------



## jbocker (30 January 2020)

The Thread Retail Wreckage is akin to this thread in my view, so a little undecided where to place this comment.
Anyway a Bakers Delight store closed in my local shop district, and I wondered if this was a more widespread issue. As it turns out I was listening to a late afternoon ABC radio program (Perth) where the talk back was about a number of franchises were closing down in Perth suburbs. Interesting phone ins followed by some shop owners about the problems of the franchise model and so on. However the underlying fact that there are closures because of lack of customer support. I must admit I was surprised to see this particular shop vacant as it was in a very popular small shopping district.
To hear the issue is more widespread seems to indicate that people are not spending those dollars on more 'upmarket' produce here in the west.
Is this the case with Bakers Delight over east?


----------



## Smurf1976 (3 February 2020)

jbocker said:


> To hear the issue is more widespread seems to indicate that people are not spending those dollars on more 'upmarket' produce here in the west.
> Is this the case with Bakers Delight over east?



I'll sum up my own spending there by saying that until I saw your post I'd completely forgotten that BD even exist.


----------



## ducati916 (3 February 2020)

C&I loans are way down in the US, which indicates an inventory unwind, which will follow with an increase in jobless claims unless something changes.

The CapEx cycle is pretty much non-existent, all new debt has gone into share buybacks (hence no real growth). No CapEx, no productivity, again, falling employment.

Global debt +/- $128T
Global GDP +/- $27T

There is less and less of an effect. 

Additionally, this is at the 'top' of the cycle. A serious recession is on the cards, not really if, just when.

jog on
duc


----------



## sptrawler (3 February 2020)

Johny5 said:


> A friend working for one of the big four banks had the retrenchment broom come through middle of last year, he escaped the broom but many older employees didn't (he's in his early 40s) and were replaced mostly by under 30s. He is gradually been driven crazy by other employees incompetence, he has to fix their errors constantly, he is called even on his days off to answer inane questions from his coworkers. He has started looking around for another job but as he has spent almost all his working life in banks he will probably only be able to get a job (well paying) in another bank, which could very well have the same inexperienced staff problems.



This seems to be a problem going through many work areas at the moment, experienced staff leaving, inexperienced supervisors coming in sometimes from completely different areas, then trying to re invent the wheel and generally stuffing up and adding costs.


----------



## sptrawler (3 February 2020)

Is the the beginings of a turn around for the economy?

https://finance.yahoo.com/news/australian-house-prices-rising-every-230000031.html
From the article:
_Australia’s property revival is spreading across the country with prices now rising in every major city.

Sydney and Melbourne continue to lead the rebound, with prices climbing 1.1% and 1.2% respectively in January, according to CoreLogic Inc. data released Monday. *Even Perth, where a 5 1/2-year downturn has hammered property values, is seeing positive movement, with prices up 0.1% in the month, and 0.4% in the past quarter.*

All up, prices across the eight state and territory capitals rose 0.9% in January, CoreLogic said_.

Hooray, at last, go Perth.


----------



## moXJO (4 February 2020)

Walking around one of our large shopping centers yesterday and it was lucky to have 30 people in there.
I noticed one dessert place had hocked off half their shelving off the wall and only had 3 flavours of ice cream left. Couple other stores had shut down. Big W was lucky to have 5 customers. Really quiet. I would not want to be paying those rents.


----------



## macca (4 February 2020)

The problem is that the economy here has been artificially propped up for the past 10 years or more

When the Govt borrows money to give $900 to each person to blow, it encourages the mentality of borrow, borrow, borrow and spend spend spend.

In reality the Govt should have stayed within budget, Oz would have taken a small slow down, a whole generation learns that life is not all roses and the country still has a manageable debt.

When the whole world takes a big hit and we take a small one, then there are still kudos there for the Govt and its management of the economy.

This spending mentality has encouraged people to use CCs to the limit, when they hit the limit they then switched to Afterpay etc, now they have maxed them out and reality rears its ugly head.

Too many frivolous shops and cafes for people to waste money in, too much money hidden in attics and suit cases from drugs, too many people on Govt benefits, too easy to order things online, excess in the extreme and this slow down in Oz is just the beginning of a retail clean out.

I would not own any retailer except Bunnings, all others, including shopping centre owners, I would sell (if I still owned any)


----------



## SirRumpole (4 February 2020)

macca said:


> I would not own any retailer except Bunnings, all others, including shopping centre owners, I would sell (if I still owned any)




Yep, Bunnings has virtually knocked out all the competition around the country. Where other stores exist they are miniscule in comparison.

One wonders if a lot of smaller areas can support Target, BigW and KMart in the same shopping centre.

They basically sell the same stuff at similar prices so one or more of them will probably have to go at some stage.


----------



## macca (4 February 2020)

SirRumpole said:


> Yep, Bunnings has virtually knocked out all the competition around the country. Where other stores exist they are miniscule in comparison.
> 
> One wonders if a lot of smaller areas can support Target, BigW and KMart in the same shopping centre.
> 
> They basically sell the same stuff at similar prices so one or more of them will probably have to go at some stage.




Our Kmart was recently refurbished, they tossed all the useful bits and enlarged the ladies and kids clothing section. They also enlarged the decorative side of things, curtains, cushions etc all the pretty things that ladies like.

Not much left of interest for men, us blokes are being forced to go to Bunnings for something to hit or paint


----------



## SirRumpole (4 February 2020)

macca said:


> Our Kmart was recently refurbished, they tossed all the useful bits and enlarged the ladies and kids clothing section. They also enlarged the decorative side of things, curtains, cushions etc all the pretty things that ladies like.
> 
> Not much left of interest for men, us blokes are being forced to go to Bunnings for something to hit or paint




Basically the only thing that interested me in KMart was DVD's , and they ditched those, but as you say, women and kids are doing well, lots of shiny toys to pressure Mum and Dad into buying.


----------



## Humid (4 February 2020)

macca said:


> Our Kmart was recently refurbished, they tossed all the useful bits and enlarged the ladies and kids clothing section. They also enlarged the decorative side of things, curtains, cushions etc all the pretty things that ladies like.
> 
> Not much left of interest for men, us blokes are being forced to go to Bunnings for something to hit or paint




No sausage in a roll at Kmart


----------



## qldfrog (4 February 2020)

Humid said:


> No sausage in a roll at Kmart



Kmart allows access to chinese stuff at chinese price.
Others sell the same at Australian price, inc bunnings
Case in hand: pool crawly diaphragm
Bunnings $18 a piece, other local providers $24 to $25
Ebay: $9 for 2, inc postage...and GST


----------



## tinhat (4 February 2020)

sptrawler said:


> Is the the beginings of a turn around for the economy?
> 
> https://finance.yahoo.com/news/australian-house-prices-rising-every-230000031.html
> From the article:
> ...






macca said:


> The problem is that the economy here has been artificially propped up for the past 10 years or more
> 
> When the Govt borrows money to give $900 to each person to blow, it encourages the mentality of borrow, borrow, borrow and spend spend spend.
> 
> ...




So we are basically just a banana republic. We have been for a while now. Relying on a never ending building boom fueled by never ending immigration is not just a recipe for ecological disaster and lower quality of life, it is economically unsustainable and a waste the potential talent of the nation's people as it diverts too many resources (and overseas sourced borrowings) into an industry that is just a dead end in terms of creating both human and fixed capital capacity that we can leverage into meaningful (foreign currency earning) industry.

Place on-top of that the fact that the fiscal system is so structurally buggered that we can only balance the federal budget if there is a mining boom. Then add in the myriad disincentives and inequalities in the tax system.

My father was a tradesman so I have no bias against people who work in a trade, but I've never seen or had to deal with so many overpaid lazy under-talented bogan redneck tradies (and their ridiculously over decked-out utes and dual cab 4x4s) in my life.

Unfortunately, tragic circumstances dictate that there is going to be a construction boom on the eastern seaboard caused by the bushfires so there will be no need for any rate cuts but there will be fiscal deficit for the foreseeable future.


----------



## tinhat (4 February 2020)

moXJO said:


> Walking around one of our large shopping centers yesterday and it was lucky to have 30 people in there.
> I noticed one dessert place had hocked off half their shelving off the wall and only had 3 flavours of ice cream left. Couple other stores had shut down. Big W was lucky to have 5 customers. Really quiet. I would not want to be paying those rents.




When the GFC hit I walked around my local Westfield and identified shops that I thought were sure to go out of business; a shop that only sold tea; one for knives; one that only seemed to sell candles. Then I looked at all the car yards that had only just opened on the highway; jeep, honda, bmw and on and on. I thought, half of those are going to close. But no, the government handed out cash, kept cutting income tax and continued to piss the mining boom company tax bonanza up against the walls of those Westfields and car dealerships. Not a single one of those shops or car yards closed during the GFC.


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## moXJO (5 February 2020)

tinhat said:


> When the GFC hit I walked around my local Westfield and identified shops that I thought were sure to go out of business; a shop that only sold tea; one for knives; one that only seemed to sell candles. Then I looked at all the car yards that had only just opened on the highway; jeep, honda, bmw and on and on. I thought, half of those are going to close. But no, the government handed out cash, kept cutting income tax and continued to piss the mining boom company tax bonanza up against the walls of those Westfields and car dealerships. Not a single one of those shops or car yards closed during the GFC.




They are going to the wall now. One shop DVD world(I think) which specializes in boxed dvd sets, figurines, comics, anime, etc  just shut it's doors.

 The desert place I mentioned before looks terminal. They were selling their own "special" tea as well. Now it's understaffed, tea and shelving all gone. And half the ice cream down to 3 flavours. 
A lot of the food stores are gone.

 It looks like recession to me. It's hard to imagine just how much pain that will unfold given everyone is stretched to the limit.

Now we have corona affecting multiple industries, that were already hard hit by rising costs. I'm looking for a black swan event to save us, but honestly it looks like we are taking the hit.


One of the car yards that has been in the area for years


----------



## Smurf1976 (5 February 2020)

SirRumpole said:


> My father was a tradesman so I have no bias against people who work in a trade, but I've never seen or had to deal with so many overpaid lazy under-talented bogan redneck tradies (and their ridiculously over decked-out utes and dual cab 4x4s) in my life.



It's what happens when something is widely seen as an "easy" way to make money.

With any job it's best to have people who want to do that sort of work rather than those who are in it only because it pays well. If someone can't decide between engineering or medicine then the best advice is "neither" since they wouldn't need to think about it for a moment if they actually had a real interest in either field.


----------



## sptrawler (5 February 2020)

I would assume the rents in tourist areas of the East Coast are very high, with the massive coverage of the bushfires curtailing tourism and now the corona virus turning people off travel, it must be hurting big time.
Also why would anyone go to the East Coast, if you don't get caught up in a fire, you are bound to get caught up in a flood. The good old sensational press.
https://au.news.yahoo.com/east-coast-heavy-downpour-months-worth-of-rain-one-week-004616384.html


----------



## Smurf1976 (5 February 2020)

sptrawler said:


> I would assume the rents in tourist areas of the East Coast are very high, with the massive coverage of the bushfires curtailing tourism and now the corona virus turning people off travel, it must be hurting big time.



I can see the fires and virus getting the blame for a recession when in reality the economy has been a bomb waiting for something to light the fuse for quite some time now.

It's like the GFC. Some of those paying attention were covering the issues, specific companies and the overall US mortgage lending situation, as early as 2002 so what unfolded wasn't even slightly surprising to them or to those who'd read their work. It was just an accident waiting to happen and in due course it did.

An economy based heavily on selling 3 bulk commodities, tourism and education with heavy reliance on a small number of buyers was always going to hit trouble at some point.


----------



## SirRumpole (5 February 2020)

Smurf1976 said:


> I can see the fires and virus getting the blame for a recession when in reality the economy has been a bomb waiting for something to light the fuse for quite some time now.
> 
> It's like the GFC. Some of those paying attention were covering the issues, specific companies and the overall US mortgage lending situation, as early as 2002 so what unfolded wasn't even slightly surprising to them or to those who'd read their work. It was just an accident waiting to happen and in due course it did.
> 
> An economy based heavily on selling 3 bulk commodities, tourism and education with heavy reliance on a small number of buyers was always going to hit trouble at some point.




The only person I've heard lately say that we need to start making things again was Larissa Waters of the Greens.

I hope this particular virus starts to spread.


----------



## jbocker (13 February 2020)

moXJO said:


> Big W was lucky to have 5 customers. Really quiet. I would not want to be paying those rents.



Cripes, in its day, there would have been more people than that roaming around the carpark breaking into the cars.
I do find large fluctuations in numbers at some odd times during the week and during that day, , it makes me think 'why' sometimes. Weather and sports events can affect the numbers.


----------



## moXJO (13 February 2020)

jbocker said:


> Cripes, in its day, there would have been more people than that roaming around the carpark breaking into the cars.
> I do find large fluctuations in numbers at some odd times during the week and during that day, , it makes me think 'why' sometimes. Weather and sports events can affect the numbers.



Couple of years back it always had a good stream of people. 90s it was packed, food court was always full early 2000s it was similar. Huge crowds. 
Now the food court looks like a ghost town and over 90% of the original shops shut. A handful of new restaurants are just hanging on now.

Times change I guess.


----------



## ducati916 (14 February 2020)

In the US:

Credit card application rejection rate 16.9% 
Credit card balance increase rejection rate 34.9%
Residential mortgage rejection rate 15.6% (up from 6.5%)
34% of households reported 'needing $2000'.

jog on
duc


----------



## Humid (14 February 2020)

Credit card interest rate is as bad as pokies
Screws the poor


----------



## sptrawler (18 February 2020)

Probably worth posting this article here, as well as the Holden thread, as it highlights what a few of us are saying about the difficulty maintaining Australia's current living standards.
https://www.drive.com.au/news/how-h...-wall-in-australia-123267.html?trackLink=SMH3
From the article:
_Thailand – dubbed the Detroit of south-east Asia – will be a manufacturing hub from which it can drive that growth.

It will also see Great Wall building cars in the same place Toyota, Isuzu, Nissan, Mitsubishi, Mazda, and Ford produce their dual-cab utes, allowing the Chinese brand to tap into Thailand's vast supply chain and manufacturing knowledge_.

Thailand used to be a cheap destination, it isn't anymore our $ has slid about 30% against the Baht in the last 10 years, meanwhile we think we are going to change the World.
I think people are in for a big shock, IMO it will be our World that changes.


----------



## SirRumpole (18 February 2020)

sptrawler said:


> Probably worth posting this article here, as well as the Holden thread, as it highlights what a few of us are saying about the difficulty maintaining Australia's current living standards.
> https://www.drive.com.au/news/how-h...-wall-in-australia-123267.html?trackLink=SMH3
> From the article:
> _Thailand – dubbed the Detroit of south-east Asia – will be a manufacturing hub from which it can drive that growth.
> ...




Anyone who is concerned with their personal safety and that of their passengers would not buy a Great Wall. They have abysmal crash safety standards and are cheap but nasty.

Maybe that will change but I'll be steering well clear of them for some time.


----------



## Dona Ferentes (18 February 2020)

Or some other east Asian manufacturers.
 Seven airbags (=> 5 rating) won't save you if the chassis splits and it breaks apart.


----------



## sptrawler (18 February 2020)

SirRumpole said:


> Anyone who is concerned with their personal safety and that of their passengers would not buy a Great Wall. They have abysmal crash safety standards and are cheap but nasty.
> 
> Maybe that will change but I'll be steering well clear of them for some time.



It will be interesting if they have bought the tooling with the Thai plant, because then the Great Wall, will be a re badged Holden Colorado wont it.


----------



## tinhat (18 February 2020)

It's rather depressing and self-destructive when people hang their hopes on coal mining for a job (while we are selling our water and soil to foreign interests).

How Australian's think the rest of the world owe them a living is besides me. What gets me though is that the educated class have sold out their morals and the future of the less fortunate for a few bucks.

Not that the big accounting firms that have now replaced our public service in policy formulation would agree with that!


----------



## qldfrog (19 February 2020)

tinhat said:


> It's rather depressing and self-destructive when people hang their hopes on coal mining for a job (while we are selling our water and soil to foreign interests).
> 
> How Australian's think the rest of the world owe them a living is besides me. What gets me though is that the educated class have sold out their morals and the future of the less fortunate for a few bucks.
> 
> Not that the big accounting firms that have now replaced our public service in policy formulation would agree with that!



Coal or any mining activity as automatisation could see 12 to 50 people run a full scale mine, most located in a city office 1000kms away, first in Brisbane or Perth, 10y later in Saigon or Mumbai with a dozen max repair team on site
so much safer, and who would want to work in 45C ...the Big Miners will tell you


----------



## moXJO (19 February 2020)

Surprisingly enough, Thais are pretty good when it comes to manufacturing things to standard. Friend bought a second hand great wall  and it's going pretty good. He treats it like dirt as well.


----------



## sptrawler (19 February 2020)

moXJO said:


> Friend bought a second hand great wall  and it's going pretty good. He treats it like dirt as well.



In the 1960's everyone said the same about Jap crap, in the 1990's everyone said who the hell would buy a Hyundai piece of crap.
Life moves on, as people's spending power drops, the vehicle they can afford changes.
Then the company that makes the cheap car, makes more money and improves their car.
Great Wall dual cab ute, with leather, sat nav etc $30k, Ford Ranger with leather sat nav $60k, it wont take long.
How long ago was it that tradesmen would only buy Sidchrome?


----------



## Humid (19 February 2020)

sptrawler said:


> Probably worth posting this article here, as well as the Holden thread, as it highlights what a few of us are saying about the difficulty maintaining Australia's current living standards.
> https://www.drive.com.au/news/how-h...-wall-in-australia-123267.html?trackLink=SMH3
> From the article:
> _Thailand – dubbed the Detroit of south-east Asia – will be a manufacturing hub from which it can drive that growth.
> ...




About the same as it slid against the US$


----------



## sptrawler (19 February 2020)

Humid said:


> About the same as it slid against the US$



Correct, the difference is since our $ was floated, it has remained fairly steady against the U.S and U.K pound over the period, against poorer economies we have fallen dramatically.


----------



## Humid (19 February 2020)

Your talking just post GFC about a country that come out of it pretty much unscathed!
The Aussie peso was worth more than the US so now it’s dropped about the same level as the Baht


----------



## sptrawler (19 February 2020)

Humid said:


> Your talking just post GFC about a country that come out of it pretty much unscathed!
> The Aussie peso was worth more than the US so now it’s dropped about the same level as the Baht



Pre GFC the Aussie dollar would have been even stronger against the Baht, even against NZ our currency has weakened.
Just look up historical data comparing relative exchange rates.
I'm just pointing out our economy is changing to a materials/primary producing economy, from a mixed base economy. If it continues our dollar will continue to slide against Countries with a manufacturing based economy, as that is what value adds and increases productivity.
Just my opinion.


----------



## Humid (19 February 2020)

tinhat said:


> It's rather depressing and self-destructive when people hang their hopes on coal mining for a job (while we are selling our water and soil to foreign interests).
> 
> How Australian's think the rest of the world owe them a living is besides me. What gets me though is that the educated class have sold out their morals and the future of the less fortunate for a few bucks.
> 
> Not that the big accounting firms that have now replaced our public service in policy formulation would agree with that!




But it’s big money for relatively basic skills and what other jobs are out there.
You forget your morals when the banks circling


----------



## Humid (19 February 2020)

sptrawler said:


> Pre GFC the Aussie dollar would have been even stronger against the Baht, even against NZ our currency has weakened.
> Just look up historical data comparing relative exchange rates.
> I'm just pointing out our economy is changing to a materials/primary producing economy, from a mixed base economy. If it continues our dollar will continue to slide against Countries with a manufacturing based economy, as that is what value adds and increases productivity.
> Just my opinion.




Maybe you should check the historical data with the baht


----------



## sptrawler (19 February 2020)

Humid said:


> Maybe you should check the historical data with the baht



I went to Thailand in the 1990's the exchange rate was 34baht to the dollar, now the rate hangs around 20baht to the dollar.


----------



## Humid (19 February 2020)

sptrawler said:


> I went to Thailand in the 1990's the exchange rate was 34baht to the dollar, now the rate hangs around 20baht to the dollar.




Let me guess about the time of the Asian financial crisis


----------



## sptrawler (19 February 2020)

Humid said:


> Let me guess about the time of the Asian financial crisis



O.k next subject.


----------



## Humid (19 February 2020)

qldfrog said:


> Coal or any mining activity as automatisation could see 12 to 50 people run a full scale mine, most located in a city office 1000kms away, first in Brisbane or Perth, 10y later in Saigon or Mumbai with a dozen max repair team on site
> so much safer, and who would want to work in 45C ...the Big Miners will tell you




Although there is never ending shutdown maintenance


----------



## qldfrog (19 February 2020)

Humid said:


> Although there is never ending shutdown maintenance



One aspect of full automation is simplicity, removal of all safety systems etc overall simpler autonomous systems will require less maintenance and more a custom one based on actual need not a time table.
Equipment will have to be designed to handle this..but they will ultimately
And the local site support team will handle it and if not able to, 2 plane loads of philippinos engineers will do it swap team like.
My 2c


----------



## basilio (9 March 2020)

Another *HUGE* wage theft story coming out.
The deliberate underpayment of hospitality workers has been open secret for years.  In fact one of the main reasons for bringing in overseas chefs ect was to make it  so much easier to  pay them roughly half the going rate.

*‘I felt like a slave’: Pub king Justin Hemmes’ empire hit with $120m wage underpayment class action*
Hospitality golden boy Justin Hemmes’ billion-dollar pub empire has been rocked by explosive claims it ripped off its workers for years.

Employment law firm Adero is bringing an open class action on behalf of an estimated 8000 former and current employees of the mega company, with 235 already registered, claiming they were regularly overworked and significantly underpaid.

...The landmark case involves two allegations – the first being that salaried employees, mostly chefs and managers, were paid for a contracted 38 hours per week but rostered to work an average of 55 hours, and often more, without any additional pay.

...But the second and most significant part of the class action relates to Merivale’s employment agreement covering every worker, permanent and casual, which Adero argues was invalid for a decade from 2009 onwards.
https://www.news.com.au/finance/wor...n/news-story/323776ce912a2d6d854af76f456015a7

“If the court agrees with our argument that the agreement shouldn’t have been used, then all Merivale hospitality workers since 2014 will be entitled to compensation,” Mr Driver said.

.....
Background on the business.
https://www.news.com.au/finance/wor...y/news-story/e174156b66c050c267242d68defde2f6

https://www.news.com.au/finance/wor...y/news-story/0317563d67bf04a08ad7030f3061dd4f


----------



## satanoperca (9 March 2020)

In relation to above artucle, what f--js me off, is how many businesses went to the wall doing the right thing by employees.

How is one to compete, when your competitors are sucking 30% free labour.

What is more scarry is that it seems to be everyone from 7-11, woolworths, coles etc


----------



## Humid (9 March 2020)

What irks me is a RC into unions you know the organisations that prevent this type of thing.
The demonisation of unions by the media has worked a treat

Join a union dumbarses


----------



## PZ99 (9 March 2020)

Good thing John Howard lost his Govt and seat when he did.

Otherwise all this crap would've been legal and far more widespread.


----------



## basilio (9 March 2020)

PZ99 said:


> Good thing John Howard lost his Govt and seat when he did.
> 
> Otherwise all this crap would've been legal and far more widespread.




But at the moment it is very widespread and only technically illegal.
I say that because to date there has been very limited capacity to call businesses to account.  As each new business gets away with  trimming its costs and pocketing the profit it becomes that much harder to halt the rot.

Hemmes complained that his pubs may not be viable if he had to pay the going pay rates. (And he was making an absolute killing on the businesses)


----------



## Humid (9 March 2020)

PZ99 said:


> Good thing John Howard lost his Govt and seat when he did.
> 
> Otherwise all this crap would've been legal and far more widespread.




But they never stop chipping away at it


----------



## sptrawler (9 March 2020)

The W.A Labor Government is starting to wind back some of the privatisation, which has to be a good thing, now all we need do is crank up apprenticeships.
https://www.abc.net.au/news/2020-03...o-services-at-fiona-stanley-hospital/12039042


----------



## Smurf1976 (9 March 2020)

sptrawler said:


> The W.A Labor Government is starting to wind back some of the privatisation



The wheel has turned on the 1990's type of thinking yes.

Manufacturing's the other one - we're going to see more of that in developed countries going forward but it'll take a long time to play out (decades).


----------



## sptrawler (9 March 2020)

Smurf1976 said:


> The wheel has turned on the 1990's type of thinking yes.
> 
> Manufacturing's the other one - we're going to see more of that in developed countries going forward but it'll take a long time to play out (decades).



I think Trump standing up and saying enough is enough, may well have the effect of making other Countries follow suit, it will be interesting to see if the momentum keeps going in the U.S if Trump is chucked out at the election.
It will also be interesting to see the way the U.K goes, when brexit settles down.
Also as you rightly pointed out, the current fiasco with disruption due to manufacturing being China centric, may cause Countries to re think at least some basic must have manufacturing and processing ability being onshored.


----------



## Humid (9 March 2020)

sptrawler said:


> The W.A Labor Government is starting to wind back some of the privatisation, which has to be a good thing, now all we need do is crank up apprenticeships.
> https://www.abc.net.au/news/2020-03...o-services-at-fiona-stanley-hospital/12039042




The ETU has been fighting tooth and nail to stop the privatization of power in WA
How's that work ing out compared


----------



## sptrawler (9 March 2020)

Humid said:


> The ETU has been fighting tooth and nail to stop the privatization of power in WA
> How's that work ing out compared



Most of the major generation(Verve Energy) is public owned, I'm pretty sure Western Power(the linesmen) are still public, but they do outsource a lot of their work. Regionals (Horizon Power) I'm pretty sure is public, but also outsource a lot of the work.


----------



## Tyler Durden (12 March 2020)

Noticing some more businesses shut shop in Sydney CBD.

Sushi shop on Bathurst Street which has been there for at least 5 years, is now closed with a notice on the door saying they have been evicted due to not paying rent.

Cherry Beans cafe on corner of Liverpool and Pitt Streets is also closed with a similar notice on the door.


----------



## sptrawler (25 March 2020)

On the car front it appears Honda is feeling the pinch in Australia.

https://www.drive.com.au/news/honda...-showrooms-in-2021-123414.html?trackLink=SMH0


----------



## moXJO (25 March 2020)

Instant implosion. Who would have picked a pandemic to finally  blow up the economy. 
Black swan indeed...


----------



## moXJO (27 March 2020)

Was out today, masked up (more for others protection) and social distancing.

Talked to a lot of business owners, all different types of business. Some that survived the last recession. And it's worse then I thought. A lot will have to shut up shop today. Many will not be back. I have  never seen anything like this before. Total retail armageddon. 

This will be a wave of pain over the economy.


----------



## Klogg (27 March 2020)

moXJO said:


> Was out today, masked up (more for others protection) and social distancing.
> 
> Talked to a lot of business owners, all different types of business. Some that survived the last recession. And it's worse then I thought. A lot will have to shut up shop today. Many will not be back. I have  never seen anything like this before. Total retail armageddon.
> 
> This will be a wave of pain over the economy.




Governments doing the right thing. This won't be as bad as expected. I expect debts will be inflated away due to high government expenditure and low low rates. Much like WW2 and the Marshall plan


----------



## InsvestoBoy (27 March 2020)

Klogg said:


> Governments doing the right thing. This won't be as bad as expected. I expect debts will be inflated away due to high government expenditure and low low rates. Much like WW2 and the Marshall plan




How come high government expenditure and low low rates couldn't help Japan?


----------



## moXJO (27 March 2020)

Klogg said:


> Governments doing the right thing. This won't be as bad as expected. I expect debts will be inflated away due to high government expenditure and low low rates. Much like WW2 and the Marshall plan



I hope it's not.
But :
No one was in the shops.
Half the shops had shut. 
The ones that were open had said they would have to close and not be able to continue.
A lot of industrial and trades had shut.
Restaurants are not turning enough deliveries to stay solvent.
No one wants to work.
Even child care is going under.
Every business said the same thing. Stimulus will not save us.

Unless this is over quickly, then it's going to be painful. 
You have to question how state and federal governments are going to keep the economy turning when no one will leave the house beyond the supermarkets. 

Today was the first time I have seen everyone in masks. At least 70% of people.


----------



## hja (27 March 2020)

moXJO said:


> I hope it's not.
> But :
> No one was in the shops.
> Half the shops had shut.
> ...



re: 70% wearing masks: In what area?
I wonder how effective wearing a mask is. Say it captures a microscopic human spray, then you itch or mishandle the mask when removing it at the end of your journey, and in doing so infect yourself.
I'm more paranoid about touching surfaces or objects, like the fruit in a supermarket that everyone else has handled and coming home with it to eat it.


----------



## moXJO (27 March 2020)

hja said:


> re: 70% wearing masks: In what area?
> I wonder how effective wearing a mask is. Say it captures a microscopic human spray, then you itch or mishandle the mask when removing it at the end of your journey, and in doing so infect yourself.
> I'm more paranoid about touching surfaces or objects, like the fruit in a supermarket that everyone else has handled and coming home with it to eat it.



South of Sydney.
Never seen that many people wear masks here ever. Admittedly there were lucky to be one tenth the number of people and that's not exaggerating.

There's a video of how to clean germs off your shopping on YouTube. Another guy said the transmission rate was pretty low anyway.


----------



## jbocker (27 March 2020)

moXJO said:


> There's a video of how to clean germs off your shopping on YouTube. Another guy said the transmission rate was pretty low anyway.





This oughta do it


----------



## wayneL (27 March 2020)

Speaking to one of my clients today the family owns a restaurant in Sydney CBD looks like they are going down the s*** chute.

My own business just took a 10% hit, but at least 100% recoverable at this point. While I usually question my life choices, it seems that at least for now, I'm bloody thankful.


----------



## Klogg (27 March 2020)

InsvestoBoy said:


> How come high government expenditure and low low rates couldn't help Japan?




They avoided a depression. The alternative is far worse.


----------



## moXJO (27 March 2020)

Klogg said:


> They avoided a depression. The alternative is far worse.



They were ingrained with working hard though. Not to mention excelling in all fields. And efficiency. 
We will probably end up looking more like greece.


----------



## InsvestoBoy (27 March 2020)

Klogg said:


> They avoided a depression. The alternative is far worse.




But no debts got inflated away?

There was no inflation at all.


----------



## Humid (27 March 2020)

Looking forward to the day Corona is just a $hit beer again!


----------



## qldfrog (28 March 2020)

moXJO said:


> They were ingrained with working hard though. Not to mention excelling in all fields. And efficiency.
> We will probably end up looking more like greece.



Greece has sponged euro from the EU, no such thing here so Argentina is our future
Resources, agriculture,smaller population and an economic disaster for the last 50y


----------



## moXJO (28 March 2020)

qldfrog said:


> Greece has sponged euro from the EU, no such thing here so Argentina is our future
> Resources, agriculture,smaller population and an economic disaster for the last 50y



We have China. So we will probably end up debt add slaves


----------



## qldfrog (28 March 2020)

moXJO said:


> We have China. So we will probably end up debt add slaves



Yeap Argentina sold out to the states, we will sell ourselves to the new masters


----------



## sptrawler (28 March 2020)

Like I said in an old thread I started, 'should we sell W.A to China', it now looks like it might have been a good idea, at least we could have charged a lot for it.
The way the market is going, it won't be long before they will be able to pick it up for loose change.


----------



## basilio (3 April 2020)

sptrawler said:


> Like I said in an old thread I started, 'should we sell W.A to China', it now looks like it might have been a good idea, at least we could have charged a lot for it.
> The way the market is going, it won't be long before they will be able to pick it up for loose change.




Do you seriously believe China is in such a great situation ?  They basically closed down the country for 10 weeks. They are  trying to get back in business but the COVID virus is still flaring up.  I'm certain their banking system is under enormous strain.

Now of course the rest of the world which, until a few months bought everything they made, is grinding to a halt and threatening to completely collapse.  That is the market for all the stuff they make.


----------



## satanoperca (3 April 2020)

basilio said:


> Do you seriously believe China is in such a great situation ?  They basically closed down the country for 10 weeks. They are  trying to get back in business but the COVID virus is still flaring up.  I'm certain their banking system is under enormous strain.
> 
> Now of course the rest of the world which, until a few months bought everything they made, is grinding to a halt and threatening to completely collapse.  That is the market for all the stuff they make.




See your are also a sell out to the CCP.


----------



## Humid (3 April 2020)

satanoperca said:


> See your are also a sell out to the CCP.




Have a look around your bunker mate
We all sold out


----------



## Humid (3 April 2020)

People worrying about paying bills,buying food,police controlling you,getting unemployment benefits 
Relax people
You’ve only been black for a week


----------



## sptrawler (3 April 2020)

basilio said:


> Do you seriously believe China is in such a great situation ?  They basically closed down the country for 10 weeks. They are  trying to get back in business but the COVID virus is still flaring up.  I'm certain their banking system is under enormous strain.
> 
> Now of course the rest of the world which, until a few months bought everything they made, is grinding to a halt and threatening to completely collapse.  That is the market for all the stuff they make.



I tell you what Bas, you check out our GDP and check out China's, they could buy us with left over U.S treasury bonds FFS.
 I remember reading before this virus started that China had cut back spending on rail infrastructure, to the least they had spent in 20 years $64billion U.S.
They could buy Australia with loose change, the problem we have have is little man syndrome, we think we are much more important than we actually are.
Where else are we going to buy the $hit from, they have all our manufacturing, remember Trump the dick wanted to return a lot of it back to the U.S.
We maybe could have jumped on his shirt tails and had some returned here, but no the chanters now have a love affair with China. Priceless


----------



## Humid (3 April 2020)

sptrawler said:


> I tell you what Bas, you check out our GDP and check out China's, they could buy us with left over U.S treasury bonds FFS.
> I remember reading before this virus started that China had cut back spending on rail infrastructure, to the least they had spent in 20 years $64billion U.S.
> They could buy Australia with loose change, the problem we have have is little man syndrome, we think we are much more important than we actually are.
> Where else are we going to buy the $hit from, they have all our manufacturing, remember Trump the dick wanted to return a lot of it back to the U.S.
> We maybe could have jumped on his shirt tails and had some returned here, but no the chanters now have a love affair with China. Priceless




The mob you voted for are running the show and have been for some time 
Look in the mirror Homer.....you’ll see a bloke chanting


----------



## sptrawler (3 April 2020)

Humid said:


> The mob you voted for are running the show and have been for some time
> Look in the mirror Homer.....you’ll see a bloke chanting



I tell you what Humid, it is your lot that have a love affair for China, read up a bit before you chuck bricks mate.
Don't start throwing $hit, at a fan that is blowing toward you.


----------



## Humid (3 April 2020)

sptrawler said:


> I tell you what Humid, it is your lot that have a love affair for China, read up a bit before you chuck bricks mate.
> Don't start throwing $hit, at a fan that is blowing toward you.




Where’s the fan made Homer?


----------



## basilio (3 April 2020)

satanoperca said:


> See your are also a sell out to the CCP.




What is that supposed to mean ?
My observation was simply that the Chinese economy and social system is under a huge amount of stress.  At this stage they have had to cope with 3 months of a largely closed economy.  

We  currently  stand at 3 weeks....
Clearly every country in the world is facing a  concurrent crisis.  What is the point in taking aggressive/hostile stands against China or Cuba or Iran or Venezuela  ? Do we we want to add a shooting war to the current disasters ? Do we want to trigger a trade war or currency runs ? Why not throw in some cyber warfare,  poisonous disinformation campaigns perhaps some selective "accidents" ?

I'm just wondering. What is the point or value of beating hostility drums in this time of extreme stress?


----------



## sptrawler (3 April 2020)

Humid said:


> Where’s the fan made Homer?



Definitely not in Australia.
One of my mates always reminds me of a time we were walking along, I said how the F#$k can they make a fan with a 250v plug on it and sell it for $7.50, when you pay $5 for a 250v plug top in Bunnings.
They are charging FA for the motor, the raw materials, the transport of the raw materials, the transport of the product  and the labour, this isn't sustainable.
Well IMO, China has done a great rope the dope trick, on the west.


----------



## Smurf1976 (3 April 2020)

basilio said:


> I'm just wondering. What is the point or value of beating hostility drums in this time of extreme stress?



Hostility I see no benefit in whatsoever. That said:

1. The issue of these wet markets must be sorted without delay. Taking China's official version of events as the the truth, in continuing with these markets they are basically endangering literally the entire planet's human population. They've already caused more harm than any dodgy nuclear reactors in Russia or any of Kim Jong Un's missiles that he likes to parade around. They simply cannot be allowed to continue. 

2. Australia and other countries need to learn the lesson that relying on a single foreign supplier of essential goods is not a wise strategy no matter what the price.


----------



## Smurf1976 (3 April 2020)

Humid said:


> Where’s the fan made




We used to make fans in Australia.

Apart from the notorious Mistral Gyro Aire which was pure evil with the end result being multiple fatalities, there were also some decent ones produced back when most manufactured items were locally made.


----------



## basilio (4 April 2020)

Smurf1976 said:


> the notorious Mistral Gyro Aire which was pure evil with the end result being multiple fatalities,




Fascinating !!  Quick check came up with this precis of how  dangerous and how criminal the company was..
https://www.coursehero.com/file/p1t...hildren-were-killed-in-a-house-fire-The-fire/


----------



## basilio (4 April 2020)

sptrawler said:


> when you pay $5 for a 250v plug top in Bunnings.




Maybe the "cost" for the plug top is suss?
It is amazing how cheaply China can make stuff. We of course just buy it up use it for a few weeks and then it all goes into the tip.

That really can't go on can it ? Even if the entire economic system is based on making more and more stuff, selling it and then replacing it ? 

Do it once do it right.


----------



## basilio (4 April 2020)

Couple of significant stories on China at the ABC
1) There is change coming to the wet markets and consumption of all sorts of wild foods.
2) The Chinese economy is  well and truly spluttering so don't look to China as an engine for economic growth

*China's economic recovery from coronavirus could be ugly — and that's bad news for the rest of the world*
https://www.abc.net.au/news/2020-03...m-coronavirus-likely-to-be-difficult/12093116

*Shenzhen bans consumption of cat and dog meat following coronavirus outbreak*
Shenzhen, a Chinese city 1,100 kilometres from the coronavirus epicentre of Wuhan, has clamped down further than other cities in the nation when it comes to the consumption of animal meat.
The coastal city, located close to the Hong Kong border, has banned people from eating dogs and cats as part of a wider clampdown on the wildlife trade since the coronavirus pandemic began in China.

https://www.abc.net.au/news/2020-04-03/shenzhen-bans-consumption-of-cat-and-dog-meat/12117136


----------



## SirRumpole (4 April 2020)

basilio said:


> The coastal city, located close to the Hong Kong border, has banned people from eating dogs and cats as part of a wider clampdown on the wildlife trade since the coronavirus pandemic began in China.




Could be good for our beef, poultry and seafood exports.


----------



## macca (4 April 2020)

basilio said:


> Couple of significant stories on China at the ABC
> 1) There is change coming to the wet markets and consumption of all sorts of wild foods.
> 2) The Chinese economy is  well and truly spluttering so don't look to China as an engine for economic growth
> 
> ...




That is good but it is the one in Wuhan, right next to the germ factory, that is used as an excuse for all the viruses they mysteriously get, that needs to go


----------



## Humid (4 April 2020)

sptrawler said:


> Definitely not in Australia.
> One of my mates always reminds me of a time we were walking along, I said how the F#$k can they make a fan with a 250v plug on it and sell it for $7.50, when you pay $5 for a 250v plug top in Bunnings.
> They are charging FA for the motor, the raw materials, the transport of the raw materials, the transport of the product  and the labour, this isn't sustainable.
> Well IMO, China has done a great rope the dope trick, on the west.




I’ve found it’s cheaper to buy a short extension lead and cut it rather than buy a plug


----------



## Humid (4 April 2020)

macca said:


> That is good but it is the one in Wuhan, right next to the germ factory, that is used as an excuse for all the viruses they mysteriously get, that needs to go




Maybe they could merge


----------



## matty77 (4 April 2020)

might as well since the virus came from that lab most likely..


----------



## matty77 (4 April 2020)

Put it this way, you cant be angry that the Chinese were working on viruses and had a lab as I would think most countries around the world would be doing similar research. The bigger issue is that they flat out deny they have any involvement and could have warned people sooner as to what was going on, they may have cost millions of lives to save face.. I guess time will tell.. or not.


----------



## SirRumpole (4 April 2020)

qldfrog said:


> Hum probably wrong place for my 2 posts.got tricked @Joe Blow  if and when you have the time, could you please move these 2 posts to the coronovirus thread
> As a note, you will soon get a donation from me : i think i am losing the bet with @SirRumpole
> This is good news




We are both on the same side  believe, and it is good news.

But it's not official till the end of August. You can call it before then if you like and Joe will get a donation from me too.


----------



## qldfrog (4 April 2020)

SirRumpole said:


> We are both on the same side  believe, and it is good news.
> 
> But it's not official till the end of August. You can call it before then if you like and Joe will get a donation from me too.



We can do this for the sake of Joe: double donation
It is true things can change so quickly.,
FWIW i send 25$ to @Joe Blow  fund today


----------



## moXJO (6 April 2020)

Went to help out a mate on Friday who is in the building game in Sydney and he is flat out. 
Talking to my suppliers this morning and they are busier now then they were before. 

Everyone must be at home noticing all the stuff that needs done around the house.


----------



## jbocker (6 April 2020)

moXJO said:


> Went to help out a mate on Friday who is in the building game in Sydney and he is flat out.
> Talking to my suppliers this morning and they are busier now then they were before.
> 
> Everyone must be at home noticing all the stuff that needs done around the house.



That is great to hear. Maybe some of those $750 payments are being spent too.


----------



## sptrawler (6 April 2020)

Bunnings seems to be as busy as ever, despite the aisle number limitations and crowd control measures.


----------



## jbocker (6 April 2020)

sptrawler said:


> Bunnings seems to be as busy as ever, despite the aisle number limitations and crowd control measures.



Bunnings are on my avoid shop list (as much as possible) till they start to supply greater Aussie content. Cheap overseas rubbish isn't cutting it for me.


----------



## jbocker (6 April 2020)

Today I called the bank (ANZ) to sort a matter and to change a customised payment system that I had set up. 1 hour 22 minutes to get someone to chat to, and then was told I needed to talk to another department and was put through. Waited another 20 minutes and found out I was put through to mortgages and not the department I was wanting. Was given a direct number which I later tried hung on for about 20 minutes and after many taped repeats we are busy the final message said please call back another time and hung up..
Not peeved. Not surprised. Understand things are busy. That is the way it is on the street so if you need to talk over the phone start early.


----------



## BlindSquirrel (6 April 2020)

with businesses shunning cash, how are the tradies with stockpiles of tax evasion proceeds going?


----------



## sptrawler (6 April 2020)

jbocker said:


> Bunnings are on my avoid shop list (as much as possible) till they start to supply greater Aussie content. Cheap overseas rubbish isn't cutting it for me.



The problem with that JB is, if they were only going to sell Aussie content, it would be a fast food joint with a gemstone section.
Not a hardware store.


----------



## matty77 (6 April 2020)

I am in Bunnings daily for work... AND its pumping at the moment. As per previous posts they had a bumper March and its flowed onto April. Issue now being the amount of peoples in stores is getting hard to control so I would expect limits on the number of people very shortly, they have been doing this weekends anyway.

Why they hell are these people out shopping anyway, most are old people buying stuff they dont need. STAY HOME people, its so frustrating.


----------



## moXJO (7 April 2020)

BlindSquirrel said:


> with businesses shunning cash, how are the tradies with stockpiles of tax evasion proceeds going?



The old school guys are dying off. Cash is a pain for most tradies.


----------



## PZ99 (7 April 2020)

We've had discussions about P2P lending in the past and idle curiosity led to a google search 

*P2P platforms seek ‘urgent’ UK government help to keep lending*

*https://www.ft.com/content/6633f55e-6d27-11ea-89df-41bea055720b*


----------



## SirRumpole (7 April 2020)

PZ99 said:


> We've had discussions about P2P lending in the past and idle curiosity led to a google search
> 
> *P2P platforms seek ‘urgent’ UK government help to keep lending*
> 
> *https://www.ft.com/content/6633f55e-6d27-11ea-89df-41bea055720b*




Paywalled.


----------



## PZ99 (7 April 2020)

RateSetter and Assetz Capital want access to stimulus schemes available to traditional banks

Madison Darbyshire March 24 2020



Spoiler



Two of the UK’s largest peer-to-peer platforms are “urgently” seeking access to government schemes and financing to help them keep lending, as the coronavirus pandemic increases the risk of loan defaults by individuals and small businesses. RateSetter, one of the UK’s biggest P2P lenders with more than £800m on its loan book, has called on the Bank of England and the Treasury to allow it access to stimulus schemes that provide liquidity to banks. “There are established schemes run by the BoE that pump liquidity into the system in the event of these situations,” said Rhydian Lewis, chief executive of RateSetter. “Now that P2P lending is fully regulated, this is a conversation we need to have.” The P2P industry body, 36H Group, is due to discuss potential action on a conference call on Tuesday. P2P platforms have not traditionally qualified for banking protections but Mr Lewis argued that now that the fledgling sector was fully regulated by the government, it should be supported by it. “There is no precedent, but these are unprecedented times,” he said. “We are being urgent because it is in times of crisis that people listen.” P2P lenders match borrowers with individuals or companies who want to lend and earn interest. As coronavirus disruption continues to squeeze small businesses, platforms have reported a spike in demand for credit lines but their own concerns on liquidity have forced them to cut back on lending. Assetz Capital, a platform that makes loans primarily against secured property, received funding from British Business Investments, a subsidiary of the national development lender British Business Bank, earlier this month that it said would enable it to make more than £100m in loans. “We’re looking for that to be expanded dramatically,” said Stuart Law, chief executive of Assetz. “The government needs to step up and support not just the banks but the lenders.” He said the platform, one of the UK’s largest, would continue to “work with borrowers, hold our breath a little while and hopefully get some support from the government funding lines”. Some P2P funds have suspended trading in the past week, such as a fund run by Octopus, citing a high volume of investors trying to withdraw their cash. The P2P industry has struggled with its reputation in the past few years with bad loans and liquidity issues toppling a number of high-profile platforms such as Lendy and FundingSecure, trapping millions in investor money. The Financial Conduct Authority introduced new regulations in December which require platforms to test potential investors on their understanding of the risks involved in the sector. But Mr Lewis hopes it will be able to capitalise on the BoE’s desire to keep the financial sector running as smoothly as possible despite the extreme circumstances. P2P lenders are keeping a close eye on the government's proposals to support small businesses but say the first real signs of trouble will appear at the end of the month when payday arrives. “If our borrowers go, it’s because the country’s gone,” said Mr Law.


----------



## Humid (7 April 2020)

moXJO said:


> The old school guys are dying off. Cash is a pain for most tradies.




Not the ones who like a toot on the weekends


----------



## moXJO (7 April 2020)

Humid said:


> Not the ones who like a toot on the weekends



Cash is actually what made the economy turn. 
They are fine tuning too much imo.


----------



## sptrawler (7 April 2020)

moXJO said:


> Cash is actually what made the economy turn.
> They are fine tuning too much imo.



Moxjo if you don't mind me asking, what age group are you in? It is just you sound like a similar age to my kids.


----------



## Smurf1976 (7 April 2020)

matty77 said:


> Why they hell are these people out shopping anyway



Rationally one would expect a boom in house renovations and repairs at the moment.

It's one of the few things people can still get done and once the crisis is over it'll be rather difficult to get it done for many. So it's a "now or not for a long time" thing hence the number of people buying hardware.

That said, well there's no need for anyone to loiter. Get in, get it, leave.


----------



## Smurf1976 (7 April 2020)

jbocker said:


> Bunnings are on my avoid shop list (as much as possible) till they start to supply greater Aussie content.



Trouble is, if they only sold Australian products then with few exceptions they'd have not much to sell. It would be a timber yard that also sold bags of cement and refilled gas bottles but that's about it.

That said, it's somewhat bizarre that insulation is imported from the UK. A high bulk, relatively low value product and given that the UK has proper wages and conditions it can't be that much cheaper to make it there surely? We do, or at least did, have multiple Australian manufacturers of directly comparable product after all.

Some even stranger things do happen though. I've spotted imported cement being sold and that's rather silly. It's high mass, low value and we've got several cement plants in Australia in Qld, NSW, SA and Tas (might also be some elsewhere). That's raw cement production as distinct from concrete mixing plants of which there are many all over the place.

It's not impossible to obtain imported coal either by the way. I've seen Chinese product for sale as well as German. That's small volumes being sold retail not train loads of it etc.


----------



## moXJO (7 April 2020)

sptrawler said:


> Moxjo if you don't mind me asking, what age group are you in? It is just you sound like a similar age to my kids.



Mid 40s


----------



## sptrawler (7 April 2020)

moXJO said:


> Mid 40s



My kids are 42,41, 39 and 35, they have the same outlook as you, I find it refreshing.


----------



## moXJO (8 April 2020)

sptrawler said:


> My kids are 42,41, 39 and 35, they have the same outlook as you, I find it refreshing.



Obviously all brilliant, well rounded go getters.


----------



## sptrawler (8 April 2020)

moXJO said:


> Obviously all brilliant, well rounded go getters.



Not really, a mixed bag you could say.
Not a uni student amongst them.


----------



## Humid (8 April 2020)

moXJO said:


> Mid 40s




Social Distancing fellas.....


----------



## moXJO (8 April 2020)

Retail is shot.
Never seen it this bad. I'm surprised shopfront business has survived at all. Literally zero traffic in majority of stores.


----------



## macca (8 April 2020)

moXJO said:


> Retail is shot.
> Never seen it this bad. I'm surprised shopfront business has survived at all. Literally zero traffic in majority of stores.




I think a lot of people are still not getting it, this Virus going to reshape our world, I can only see a dead cat approaching the ceiling and then falling a couple of floors down the stairwell


----------



## InsvestoBoy (9 April 2020)

moXJO said:


> Retail is shot.
> Never seen it this bad. I'm surprised shopfront business has survived at all. Literally zero traffic in majority of stores.




Been watching @moXJO reports from the street with interest over the last few weeks.

I live in the St George area, south of Sydney, closest shops to me is the strip of small businesses and very small shopping centre (Woolies/Aldi/Bakers Delight) at Kogarah Station.

Today I was craving a pizza so bad. Decided to order a "No Contact Pickup" pizza from the local Pizza Hut.

Walked down there about an hour ago, you would have no idea there was social distancing measures in place.

Loooots of people walking around, buying stuff, all the shops open. Old people, young people, you name it.

I would estimate about 30-40% wearing masks.

Complacency reigns.


----------



## sptrawler (9 April 2020)

InsvestoBoy said:


> Been watching @moXJO reports from the street with interest over the last few weeks.
> 
> I live in the St George area, south of Sydney, closest shops to me is the strip of small businesses and very small shopping centre (Woolies/Aldi/Bakers Delight) at Kogarah Station.
> 
> ...



In W.A Perth Southern suburb 10k's from CBD, very quiet, not many people at the shopping centre and people definitely following distancing rules.
Same goes for Mandurah, social distancing very obvious, everyone conforming, pretty impressive really.
McGowan isn't talking in a friendly manner, he comes over as "no crap will be tolerated", no mixed message there at all.


----------



## Humid (9 April 2020)

Perth weather is real warm atm so I ventured down the local pool shop for some chlorine the owner reckons business is good....went through BWS as well
2birds
Disclaimer 
Pool was fine


----------



## moXJO (9 April 2020)

A lot of traffic today. It's been relatively quiet prior.  Has seemed like an uptick in the amount of people about.

Was in a cashflush suburb today. A lot of people on the streets, lined up to get into the stores. 2 min drive down the road and it was absolutely empty. 

Everyone is out on fitness walks though. Must all be sick of sitting around the house. 

Talking to a car salesman and they are hurting. Anyone after a bargain, go turn the screws.


----------



## matty77 (9 April 2020)

Glad your pool is ok, will take any good news in this current climate.

Bunnings, Officeworks are still flying at the moment, its almost like xmas time, Coles also still doing well. 

Shopping centres though are very quiet, clothing stores etc seem to be hit particularly bad.


----------



## SirRumpole (9 April 2020)

Listening to the press conferences of Government/health/police I get the feeling that some police officers & politicians are enjoying the restrictions a bit too much.

The Tas premier seemed to be gloating about having "helicopters in the air" to spot anyone actually enjoying themselves and the NSW Police Commissioner was equally pleased about the tickets his troopers handed out.

Although most people appear to be compliant, if I were those in government I wouldn't assume that the rather heavy handed restrictions would win them votes come the next elections.


----------



## Humid (9 April 2020)

No booze for sale in WA tomorrow.....don’t forget


----------



## Dona Ferentes (9 April 2020)

at least you're listening


----------



## Humid (9 April 2020)

Don’t care about the noise


----------



## Smurf1976 (9 April 2020)

SirRumpole said:


> Listening to the press conferences of Government/health/police I get the feeling that some police officers & politicians are enjoying the restrictions a bit too much.



My perception is certainly that WA and SA seem to be taking a more sensible approach to it all. The WA premier's speech where the NSW kebab incident came up says it all really.


----------



## tinhat (10 April 2020)

Do you people understand how bad th_ings are going to get_


----------



## Humid (10 April 2020)

tinhat said:


> Do you people understand how bad th_ings are going to get_




Enlighten me


----------



## wayneL (10 April 2020)

tinhat said:


> Do you people understand how bad th_ings are going to get_




Yes, in many different facets, not just economic.


----------



## moXJO (10 April 2020)

Humid said:


> No booze for sale in WA tomorrow.....don’t forget



Is that for real?


----------



## SirRumpole (10 April 2020)

moXJO said:


> Is that for real?




You can get loaves and fishes apparently, but you may want to passover them.


----------



## Humid (10 April 2020)

moXJO said:


> Is that for real?




Good Friday and Xmas day no booze in WA....


----------



## moXJO (10 April 2020)

That's right it's good Friday.


----------



## hja (10 April 2020)

SirRumpole said:


> You can get loaves and fishes apparently, but you may want to passover them.



No breaking of bread?


----------



## hja (10 April 2020)

Humid said:


> Good Friday and Xmas day no booze in WA....



Boo'z... what's so good about Friday then?


----------



## Humid (10 April 2020)

Thursday when the bottlo was open


----------



## moXJO (11 April 2020)

People seem to have adjusted to our North Korean style life. The panic has subsided and people are getting on with it. Still no toilet paper, antibacterial soaps, or pasta. But a lot of the other goods are returning to shelves that had previously been bought out.

Perhaps it's just the eye of the storm. But people have gotten use to the new normal.
The market sentiment  seems to be cautiously backing people's adjustment.

At Bunnings and it is the busiest I have seen it.
It's looking like a fast recovery in regards to confidence.


----------



## jbocker (11 April 2020)

Is it me, but has there been a big reduction in Funeral Insurance Infomercials about.
Always thought them a scammy idea.


----------



## basilio (11 April 2020)

jbocker said:


> Is it me, but has there been a big reduction in Funeral Insurance Infomercials about.
> Always thought them a scammy idea.




Always been a scam.  But of course now they might look like a good idea if your older.. 
But at the same time there is no way on earth the insurance companies are going to allow a raft of policies to walk out  the door with the COVID 19 risk so high.


----------



## Smurf1976 (11 April 2020)

moXJO said:


> Perhaps it's just the eye of the storm.



I suspect that the second storm will be when economic reality hits the masses. 

It'll be an outright miracle if we don't end up in a recession that takes quite some time to properly recover from.


----------



## macca (11 April 2020)

Quickest way back is to copy China, Korea, Taiwan and Japan, mask up and go back to work

Limit large "unnecessary" social gatherings and insist everyone wears a mask near others so that we stop the spread by those who are infected but have no symptoms


----------



## jbocker (12 April 2020)

macca said:


> Quickest way back is to copy China, Korea, Taiwan and Japan, mask up and go back to work
> 
> Limit large "unnecessary" social gatherings and insist everyone wears a mask near others so that we stop the spread by those who are infected but have no symptoms



Are we there yet!
If we follow their model we need to ask a few questions.
Have we got to their level of control before they have started off to work again. (remember we jumped late by comparison)
Are we convinced that they are following a path that is really working.
Do we have the discipline to wear the masks (you are saying everyone should wear it and I hear a chorus of nannnny state, it'll mussup me hair, it dont work). Thankfully we have done VERY well so far maybe I wont hear it. 
We need to advertise our strategy of the change is probably the most important thing.


----------



## Humid (12 April 2020)

macca said:


> Quickest way back is to copy China, Korea, Taiwan and Japan, mask up and go back to work
> 
> Limit large "unnecessary" social gatherings and insist everyone wears a mask near others so that we stop the spread by those who are infected but have no symptoms




Do you have a job?


----------



## moXJO (12 April 2020)

I often wonder how we are doing so well?

No one wears masks.
Social distancing is haphazardly applied when people can be bothered. 
Hand sanitizer is rarely used.


----------



## Humid (12 April 2020)

moXJO said:


> I often wonder how we are doing so well?
> 
> No one wears masks.
> Social distancing is haphazardly applied when people can be bothered.
> Hand sanitizer is rarely used.




The only thing we make is coffee 
They shut it down 
Simple


----------



## Humid (12 April 2020)

Forgot the gym....


----------



## jbocker (12 April 2020)

macca said:


> Quickest way back is to copy China, Korea, Taiwan and Japan, mask up and go back to work



Just to compare statistically... for what its worth (coronavirus cases)​


Taiwan has an median age similar to ours A 38years T 45Years and populations similar A 25.5M T23.8M and is also an island.
3rd last column header should read total deaths / million.


----------



## $20shoes (12 April 2020)

Smurf1976 said:


> I suspect that the second storm will be when economic reality hits the masses.
> 
> It'll be an outright miracle if we don't end up in a recession that takes quite some time to properly recover from.




FRED's NOWCAST indicator is a leading indicator and is forecasting a GDP contraction of -13.74% for the USA.




_St. Louis Fed’s Economic News Index (ENI) uses economic content from key monthly economic data releases to forecast the growth of real GDP during that quarter. In general, the most-current observation is revised multiple times throughout the quarter. The final forecasted value (before the BEA’s release of the advance estimate of GDP) is the static, historical value for that quarter._

It doesn't make any claims to the length of time, but earnings season is going to be messy.


----------



## Smurf1976 (12 April 2020)

jbocker said:


> Do we have the discipline to wear the masks



Do we have a supply of masks to be wearing?


----------



## cush turbo (12 April 2020)

Yes count how many small business shut close by when they open a new wharehouse.


----------



## macca (12 April 2020)

Smurf1976 said:


> Do we have a supply of masks to be wearing?




Remember the mask does not have to be medical standard, it is to stop asymptomatic people infecting others before they know they are ill.

On the cruise ship in the USA there were over 700 people with CV19, about 300 had no symptoms at all, they did not even feel sick.

Asia has been there before, mask up and carry on is their way of coping, the figures support it as a viable option


----------



## Dona Ferentes (12 April 2020)

"The output gap is the lost economic output a country will experience during a period in which the economy is effectively shut down. The longer the output gap, the deeper the economic damage. The duration of the output gap will largely depend on the effectiveness of the health response taken by governments."  -Magellan


$20shoes said:


> FRED's NOWCAST indicator is a leading indicator and is forecasting a GDP contraction of -13.74% for the USA
> 
> _St. Louis Fed’s Economic News Index (ENI) uses economic content from key monthly economic data releases to forecast the growth of real GDP during that quarter. In general, the most-current observation is revised multiple times throughout the quarter. The final forecasted value (before the BEA’s release of the advance estimate of GDP) is the static, historical value for that quarter._
> 
> It doesn't make any claims to the length of time, but earnings season is going to be messy.



- The French central bank estimated that every two weeks of lockdown could reduce annual economic activity in France by 1.5%.


----------



## SirRumpole (12 April 2020)

moXJO said:


> I often wonder how we are doing so well?
> 
> No one wears masks.
> Social distancing is haphazardly applied when people can be bothered.
> Hand sanitizer is rarely used.




We managed to shut down the borders fairly early.

Being an island is an advantage.

How many people spilled across the border from Europe into the UK before they knew what was happening ?

This is the best thing that happened for Brexit, sad as the deaths are.


----------



## qldfrog (12 April 2020)

Dona Ferentes said:


> - The French central bank estimated that every two weeks of lockdown could reduce annual economic activity in France by 1.5%.



And this is conservative, at least that
One thing not to forget is that the impact on companies is much higher
Your yearly profit is income - cost
If you close a month and your income is decreased by 1/12. Your costs are not and things like rates water power all the various fees insurance licensings and permits still have their yearly costs unchanged, the body corporate fees stsy the same, your car still need to be service after 6 months or ehatever even if km ate done,bthe oil changed the fire extinguisher will have to be controlled
The higher the regulatory pressure, the higher the cost so here again we are starting defeated vs Asia


----------



## qldfrog (12 April 2020)

qldfrog said:


> And this is conservative, at least that
> One thing not to forget is that the impact on companies is much higher
> Your yearly profit is income - cost
> If you close a month and your income is decreased by 1/12. Your costs are not and things like rates water power all the various fees insurance licensings and permits still have their yearly costs unchanged, the body corporate fees stsy the same, your car still need to be service after 6 months or ehatever even if km ate done,bthe oil changed the fire extinguisher will have to be controlled
> The higher the regulatory pressure, the higher the cost so here again we are starting defeated vs Asia



Apologies for the fat fingers


----------



## InsvestoBoy (18 April 2020)

Alright everyone, I just got back from Woolies, toilet paper is back on the shelves and nearly everyone was walking out with some under their arm.

Crisis averted.

XJO to 9000.


----------



## basilio (20 April 2020)

Check out this analysis on the current economic situation in Australia and consider how our economy is being affected by COVID 19.  The impact on retail has yet to officially documented - but our eyes tell us  tourism and tertiary education are cactus.

*China’s GDP collapse caps off a week of bad Australian economic news*
By
Robin Bromby
-
April 18, 2020
China’s economy contracted 6.8% in the March quarter.
FacebookTwitterLinkedInEmailPrint
China has been reporting quarterly GDP figures for 28 years and there has never been a contraction — until the March quarter just ended and the contraction came in at 6.8% on Friday.

That sent a shock wave around the world. It ended a surge of Chinese economic growth that dates back to 1976.

It will be an especially hard jolt to Australia with its heavy reliance on China as an export market.

Even before the Chinese data was released on Friday, Australian Prime Minister Scott Morrison earlier in the day was warning Australians that the economic impact of the COVID-19 virus will hit this economy “like a truck”.
https://smallcaps.com.au/china-gdp-collapse-bad-australian-economic-news/


----------



## matty77 (20 April 2020)

Noticed while driving around a lot of commercial property up for rent, not sure if its just my imagination but I think commercial property is taking a massive dump at the moment... its going to get messy.


----------



## qldfrog (20 April 2020)

matty77 said:


> Noticed while driving around a lot of commercial property up for rent, not sure if its just my imagination but I think commercial property is taking a massive dump at the moment... its going to get messy.



was already the case in Brisbane, been trying to sell /rent an industrial shed for 2 years, got a tenant for limited time only, but activity was dead for new tenants or upgrading existing ones already, at best business were stable but not growing and no creation here in North Brisbane


----------



## moXJO (20 April 2020)

matty77 said:


> Noticed while driving around a lot of commercial property up for rent, not sure if its just my imagination but I think commercial property is taking a massive dump at the moment... its going to get messy.



It started before all this was going on. This is just feeding into it.


----------



## jbocker (20 April 2020)

Is it just me but is the quality of vegetables seem to be improving. Best bunch of capsicums I had seen for a while! But looking across all the other produce it was all looked good.
Maybe vege exports have waned and us locals are get the quality?
Maybe I was just lucky today.
Me.. noticing vegetables.. I MUST have been hungry!!​


----------



## InsvestoBoy (20 April 2020)

jbocker said:


> Is it just me but is the quality of vegetables seem to be improving. Best bunch of capsicums I had seen for a while! But looking across all the other produce it was all looked good.
> Maybe vege exports have waned and us locals are get the quality?
> Maybe I was just lucky today.
> Me.. noticing vegetables.. I MUST have been hungry!!​




Good rain after long drought.


----------



## Dona Ferentes (20 April 2020)

The 'deregulation' is interesting  ... local cafe has a fridge where the customers once sat, selling milk, avocados, all the ingredients that went in the BLTs. Bookshops (that still exist) are doing a roaring business. Buses here are loading through the middle doors.

Causing some friction for people buying takeaway, then going to a park to eat and getting moved on.

Heard a good one from friends in Melbourne; a _walking degustation, _strolling through the restaurant district and the QV market, grazing here and there. There's an App for that.


----------



## moXJO (20 April 2020)

We export the good stuff usually. Meat should be getting better as well.


----------



## matty77 (21 April 2020)

I know commercial has been struggling for some time, what has shocked me though is in the increase in rental available in just the last few weeks, seems to me the sign printers are the only ones making the money at the moment..


----------



## Dona Ferentes (21 April 2020)

matty77 said:


> I know commercial has been struggling for some time, what has shocked me though is in the increase in rental available in just the last few weeks, seems to me the sign printers are the only ones making the money at the moment..



Residential rental listings (availability) are surging in major cities sending asking rents lower as more tenants leave the market amid the virus-induced shutdown,


> Domain's latest figures showed rental listings rose 7 per cent nationally over the year to April 19.
> 
> In Sydney, listings jumped 15 per cent while Melbourne notched up a 14 per cent rise.
> 
> Hobart, which enjoyed the tightest rental market in the country for a couple of years, racked up the largest increase in listings — a whopping 41 per cent


----------



## sptrawler (21 April 2020)

Dona Ferentes said:


> Residential rental listings (availability) are surging in major cities sending asking rents lower as more tenants leave the market amid the virus-induced shutdown,



Hobart was interesting 40%, must be all the holiday homes, that Melbourne and Sydney people don't want to use for the foreseable future.


----------



## Dona Ferentes (22 April 2020)

sptrawler said:


> Hobart was interesting 40%, must be all the holiday homes, that Melbourne and Sydney people don't want to use for the foreseable future.



 Airbnb. High tourist numbers. Also Uni students from OS.


----------



## Bill M (22 April 2020)

At the street level I am only seeing things get worse. 80% of the shops in my nearest mall are closed. As we know all the clubs, pubs and restaurants are closed. Not to mention anything travel related is virtually zero too. Literally 10's of thousands unemployed. On 2 occasions I have seen long queues outside my local Centerlink Office snaking around up to the next block. This is something I have never seen before.

But on the other hand there are a lot of people with a lot of money. Right now Gold is $2,700 AUD an oz. It is at it's highest price ever and as soon as a coin or bar is manufactured it is sold instantly in the bullion shops. People are buying gold and silver like there is no tomorrow. Bullion shops are nearly completely sold out of gold and silver. So whilst a lot of people are suffering there still seems to be a lot of money out there. Two very different worlds at the street level.


----------



## Junior (22 April 2020)

Bill M said:


> At the street level I am only seeing things get worse. 80% of the shops in my nearest mall are closed. As we know all the clubs, pubs and restaurants are closed. Not to mention anything travel related is virtually zero too. Literally 10's of thousands unemployed. On 2 occasions I have seen long queues outside my local Centerlink Office snaking around up to the next block. This is something I have never seen before.
> 
> But on the other hand there are a lot of people with a lot of money. Right now Gold is $2,700 AUD an oz. It is at it's highest price ever and as soon as a coin or bar is manufactured it is sold instantly in the bullion shops. People are buying gold and silver like there is no tomorrow. Bullion shops are nearly completely sold out of gold and silver. So whilst a lot of people are suffering there still seems to be a lot of money out there. Two very different worlds at the street level.




Agreed.  Two different worlds.  In our household my wife is a nurse, and I'm a financial adviser.  Zero interruption to our incomes, and we are very thankful (other than my wife being at high risk of bringing the virus home from work).  On the other hand, some stories in my network:

* He was a Virgin Australia pilot on $160k pa and wife was stay at home.  They had little savings and now have no income, except maybe JobKeeper/Seeker.
* Couple who both work full time in theatre production.  Income disappeared over night with little prospect of coming back anytime soon.
* Two other friends, one is a physio the other a nutritionist, both lost their jobs.
* Another contact works for Cricket Australia, quite senior.  Had to take a temporary (hopefully) 80% pay cut.

It's a lottery.


----------



## InsvestoBoy (28 April 2020)

I'm finishing up my contract soon and starting a new role in a couple of weeks. So today I decided I should go to the city and retrieve some stuff from my office. FWIW, demand for tech workers still seems high and I didn't have any trouble landing a permanent role.

I'd estimate on the train going in there was about 30 people on the platform, only about 5 wearing masks.

The city itself was surprisingly busy, a fair few people milling around. Lots and lots of construction workers working on the new Martin Place Tower for Macquarie were out eating their "lunch" at 10-10:30AM. People getting coffees from hole in the wall cafes around Martin Place.

The main thing that was missing was all the tech workers that are normally milling around.

I visited my bullion dealer while I was in there and sold some gold as I'm a bit overweight due to the run up in price. One other guy was in buying an ounce. Didn't seem busier than normal.


----------



## wayneL (28 April 2020)

I've had the most profitable 10 days for ages, after a couple of weeks down about 30%. Remains to be seen if that continues.

But lots are getting crushed


----------



## PZ99 (28 April 2020)

I had a friend that went down the same path about 14 years ago due to a decision in Canberra.
At that point we were all supposed to be better off and/or richer due to being debt free.
But that doesn't always translate to food on the table.


----------



## InsvestoBoy (29 April 2020)

I feel bad posting this after the above stories

https://www.abc.net.au/news/2020-04...mpact-on-households-amid-coronavirus/12195156



> The Federal Government's stimulus payments are having a "profound impact" on Australia's households, with a surge in unemployment payments more than offsetting the fall in income from job losses.
> 
> According to the Commonwealth Bank, since mid-March there has been a 50 per cent increase in the number of CBA bank accounts receiving fortnightly Jobseeker payments [previously called Newstart].
> 
> ...


----------



## jbocker (29 April 2020)

I am keeping an eye on carparks at my local two supermarket centres. Some 'street level' metrics appear. Early on in lockdown wrt car parking there far less and well spaced less concentrated at the entrance. Later More cars but still well spread. As time goes by the car numbers haven't increased so much but the concentration of vehicles at the entrance increased. Now car numbers have also increased. Car park is never full (still only 1/4 at best). Before all this the car parks were rarely empty as the areas has many small street shops, restaurants and a pub and a bar. (Leederville Mt Hawthorn WA)


----------



## wayneL (29 April 2020)

jbocker said:


> I am keeping an eye on carparks at my local two supermarket centres. Some 'street level' metrics appear. Early on in lockdown wrt car parking there far less and well spaced less concentrated at the entrance. Later More cars but still well spread. As time goes by the car numbers haven't increased so much but the concentration of vehicles at the entrance increased. Now car numbers have also increased. Car park is never full (still only 1/4 at best). Before all this the car parks were rarely empty as the areas has many small street shops, restaurants and a pub and a bar. (Leederville Mt Hawthorn WA)



Interesting. In my area of outer Western Brisbane/Ipswich, local supermarket carparks are pretty much at pre covid level and road traffic seems almost normal. That said, most of the people I talk to are *well down on business turnover.

My biggest account which is a Riding for Disabled establishement is down 80%

Inner city and inner burbs still like a ghost town too.

FWIW


----------



## Dona Ferentes (30 April 2020)

*Media worth consuming - April 2020*

 Jonathan Rochford
  29 April 2020
A monthly look at dozens of local and global media articles that often do not receive mainstream coverage in Australia. 

"Links to dozens of global media articles that do not receive mainstream coverage in Australia. It's sceptical, fun and revealing, often challenging consensus and accepted wisdom."

https://www.firstlinks.com.au/media-worth-consuming-april-2020

_Written by Jonathan Rochford of Narrow Road Capital. Comments and criticisms are welcome.
_
(A good way to spend a rainy day)


----------



## Garpal Gumnut (30 April 2020)

wayneL said:


> Interesting. In my area of outer Western Brisbane/Ipswich, local supermarket carparks are pretty much at pre covid level and road traffic seems almost normal. That said, most of the people I talk to are *well down on business turnover.
> 
> My biggest account which is a Riding for Disabled establishement is down 80%
> 
> ...



Good intel @wayneL . I usually take my boganometer out on days like Sat. May 2nd, loosening of lockdown day in Queensland for the southerners to check on flow through JBH, HVN, WOW, COL and WES Officeworks, Kmart  and Bunnings.

They have been very quiet really as a consumer group, said bogans, missing Capt. Cooks anniversary while they contract social diseases via Facebook. As have their professional neighbours weighed down by their negative gearing and "rentals". The carparks are full but they weren't even buying pre-Coronavirus.

I did notice that condoms are not selling, as is usual in a plague, as the population normally increases. 

I'll give it a miss as I predict folk will be in the open air rather than shopping centres getting mugged. 

gg


----------



## moXJO (30 April 2020)

Tradies are flat out as are suppliers.


----------



## jbocker (1 May 2020)

macca said:


> Quickest way back is to copy China, Korea, Taiwan and Japan, mask up and go back to work




Updating the status since last posting to see how Australia is going compared with the '?best'.


----------



## qldfrog (2 May 2020)

ME bank playing me me me
This is actually scary and will not inspire confidence in the street
https://www.brisbanetimes.com.au/bu...nts-linked-to-home-loans-20200501-p54oxn.html


----------



## jbocker (2 May 2020)

qldfrog said:


> ME bank playing me me me
> This is actually scary and will not inspire confidence in the street
> https://www.brisbanetimes.com.au/bu...nts-linked-to-home-loans-20200501-p54oxn.html



That is not nice. Redraw _was _a nice back up facility to have for tight times. ME obviously thinks so too.


----------



## Berry (2 May 2020)

jbocker said:


> That is not nice. Redraw _was _a nice back up facility to have for tight times. ME obviously thinks so too.



The banks actually changed the rules about 18months or more ago now so that if you fall behind in your mortgage they can now access your offset account. Previously they weren’t allowed to touch it.  This move by ME is not going to be the first. I can see a lot of people suddenly without any money.  I have already quarantined some living expenses in a separate bank


----------



## sptrawler (2 May 2020)

Berry said:


> The banks actually changed the rules about 18months or more ago now so that if you fall behind in your mortgage they can now access your offset account. Previously they weren’t allowed to touch it.  This move by ME is not going to be the first. I can see a lot of people suddenly without any money.  I have already quarantined some living expenses in a separate bank



Sounds like a good plan berry, I think the banking Royal Commission left a lot of people thinking the banks have no rights, it is an interesting ploy by ME bank.


----------



## Humid (2 May 2020)

You could imagine what would of happened if they were given notice


----------



## Dona Ferentes (2 May 2020)

Berry said:


> The banks actually changed the rules about 18months or more ago.
> .....  I have already quarantined some living expenses in a separate bank



smart


----------



## Dona Ferentes (2 May 2020)

Garpal Gumnut said:


> Good intel @wayneL ...
> I did notice that condoms are not selling, as is usual in a plague, as the population normally increases.
> ...



This may be in the wrong thread (..bedrooms, not street level) but according to some 
*Coronavirus: People are having less sex in lockdown, says Durex boss*

*https://www.bbc.com/news/business-52490023*


----------



## jbocker (2 May 2020)

Berry said:


> The banks actually changed the rules about 18months or more ago now so that if you fall behind in your mortgage they can now access your offset account. Previously they weren’t allowed to touch it.  This move by ME is not going to be the first. I can see a lot of people suddenly without any money.  I have already quarantined some living expenses in a separate bank



Thanks Berry Do you know if offset accounts have had similar rule changes, or similar (eg. offset rate reduced)?


----------



## jbocker (2 May 2020)

Dona Ferentes said:


> This may be in the wrong thread (..bedrooms, not street level) but according to some
> *Coronavirus: People are having less sex in lockdown, says Durex boss*
> 
> *https://www.bbc.com/news/business-52490023*



1.5 metere rules puts me out of reach.


----------



## qldfrog (2 May 2020)

jbocker said:


> 1.5 meters rules puts me out of reach.



no to boast but..ohh you mean meters not inches
and sorry for the thread divergence.
Back into what I believe is the street level side of the economy:
I have the feeling that banks are not trusted much , news like that (ME bank) or the so call mandatory help by CBA stopping loan repayments without asking, and this after the super funds preventing you to get your money even when requested by both so called owners and gov laws,  brings a high distrust for institutions which are fully built on trust;which no trust: super funds and banks disappear
will not help in case of a bank run..or may even create one


----------



## Dona Ferentes (2 May 2020)

Berry said:


> The banks actually changed the rules about 18months or more ago now so that if you fall behind in your mortgage they can now access your offset account.



thanks for that info. As I don't have an offset account, I didn't pick up on it.  

Great, isn't it; introduce a product and then change the rules. Every time we're forced to tick *I ACCEPT *that's what happens







> I can see a lot of people suddenly without any money.  I have already quarantined some living expenses in a separate bank



Now the qldfrog has mentioned bank runs, why not? Let's have one. Except no-one will touch the cash. 

Things are going to get stranger, and possibly more simple. Frayed so.


----------



## Garpal Gumnut (2 May 2020)

Dona Ferentes said:


> This may be in the wrong thread (..bedrooms, not street level) but according to some
> *Coronavirus: People are having less sex in lockdown, says Durex boss*
> 
> *https://www.bbc.com/news/business-52490023*



It may be more accurate to say that people are having less unprotected sex. The normal in a plague is to "go for it".

gg


----------



## Berry (2 May 2020)

jbocker said:


> Thanks Berry Do you know if offset accounts have had similar rule changes, or similar (eg. offset rate reduced)?



This is one clause from St George.  Others have similar


“29.4 Unlesstheamountowingisgenuinely in dispute, if you are in default, we may use any money you have in another account with us towards repaying the total amount owing (this is known as “combining accounts”).
We may combine accounts without giving you any notice but we will tell you afterwards.”


----------



## qldfrog (2 May 2020)

Berry said:


> This is one clause from St George.  Others have similar
> 
> 
> “29.4 Unlesstheamountowingisgenuinely in dispute, if you are in default, we may use any money you have in another account with us towards repaying the total amount owing (this is known as “combining accounts”).
> We may combine accounts without giving you any notice but we will tell you afterwards.”



As far as i know, in ME case, they were not in default
My uninformed opinion:
ME fundings usually coming from super funds, when renewing loans (that is the bank business:
 borrow on the market, loan to John Smith for his bungalow purchase, every month or whenever roll over expiring money market loans until John repaid his loan after 5 10 20y
)
Union Supers are themselves short in cash so no $ to reinvest with me, international lenders look at ME and say: ME bank, what bank?
And do not loan...
By moving people cash to their HL, the bank reduces both the total loaned amount( so less risk for creditors) and reduce redrawing needs.
What we are seeing is money flow seizing or expected seizure?
Any other view?
Might need a thread on its own @Joe Blow what do you think?


----------



## Joe Blow (2 May 2020)

qldfrog said:


> Might need a thread on its own @Joe Blow what do you think?




I'm happy for a new thread to be started on this topic. If you would like to start one from scratch please just go ahead and start it in the most appropriate forum.

If you would like me to split some posts off from this thread then I can do that, as long as it doesn't interrupt the flow of the thread.


----------



## qldfrog (2 May 2020)

Joe Blow said:


> I'm happy for a new thread to be started on this topic. If you would like to start one from scratch please just go ahead and start it in the most appropriate forum.
> 
> If you would like me to split some posts off from this thread then I can do that, as long as it doesn't interrupt the flow of the thread.



Thanks Joe, I will follow any advice from ourfellow members I they want to create a Money flow freeze thread , just in case it finds getting a life on its own..
Otherwise we will just leave this here and add it to what makes the people's mood and feelings


----------



## jbocker (2 May 2020)

Berry initiated the point I think. Up to @Berry


----------



## Berry (2 May 2020)

jbocker said:


> Berry initiated the point I think. Up to @Berry



I’ve been a fairly passive on the forums just learning and absorbing information. I dont want to derail things.  Happy for you guys to do what you see best


----------



## Dona Ferentes (2 May 2020)

qldfrog said:


> Thanks Joe, I will follow any advice from ourfellow members I they want to create a Money flow freeze thread , just in case it finds getting a life on its own..
> Otherwise we will just leave this here and add it to what makes the people's mood and feelings



My son has an interest offset acct with Macquarie. Just mentioned this to him and he reports "no news is good news". It probably would be as QF says, a funding source issue. 

He is renting the 2br inner city apartment out and, just another anecdote, the tenant is leaving this week, to move in with her boyfriend. The agent says 'don't despair' but he just wants it rented! Cash flow.


----------



## Smurf1976 (2 May 2020)

qldfrog said:


> ME bank playing me me me



The bigger concern I'd have would be if I had funds deposited with them.

When a financial institution takes action which has the effect of limiting withdrawals, regardless of the detail that always rings alarm bells and especially so when it occurs amidst a broader crisis.


----------



## qldfrog (2 May 2020)

Smurf1976 said:


> The bigger concern I'd have would be if I had funds deposited with them.
> 
> When a financial institution takes action which has the effect of limiting withdrawals, regardless of the detail that always rings alarm bells and especially so when it occurs amidst a broader crisis.



It think it might should I say should worry more generally credit union members with deposits


----------



## moXJO (11 May 2020)

Ok busy as he'll for trades. My barber said he is constantly busy.
Other thing I noticed is we have this weird business environment going on.
Small business is going to the wall in a lot of areas: restaurants, retail. While big business seems to be making a motza: Bunnings, Kmart, etc.
People seem to be out spending though.


----------



## qldfrog (11 May 2020)

qldfrog said:


> It think it might should I say should worry more generally credit union members with deposits



above: the result of smart?phone typing..not sure I can even guess what I initially typed...
much better on a laptop....


----------



## Smurf1976 (12 May 2020)

moXJO said:


> busy as he'll for trades



Trades I think it varies hugely.

Residential are perhaps busy (?) but I know some doing commercial work only and they are completely idle at present, all work has come to a complete halt, and they're actively considering a change of business focus.

I think it varies hugely depending on what trade, what segment of the market and what location.


----------



## moXJO (12 May 2020)

Smurf1976 said:


> Trades I think it varies hugely.
> 
> Residential are perhaps busy (?) but I know some doing commercial work only and they are completely idle at present, all work has come to a complete halt, and they're actively considering a change of business focus.
> 
> I think it varies hugely depending on what trade, what segment of the market and what location.



That's true it's mainly residential I've been speaking to.


----------



## InsvestoBoy (14 May 2020)

If it counts for anything, in the pre COVID times, I would get messages from recruiters on LinkedIn offering jobs. Let's say about 2-3 a week on average.

During COVID times, no messages, although I didn't have trouble finding myself a permanent role to switch to from my contracting work in April.

This week I have been contacted twice so far about 3 different roles, so looks like IT recruitment is starting back up.


----------



## Dona Ferentes (14 May 2020)

InsvestoBoy said:


> If it counts for anything, in the pre COVID times, I would get messages from recruiters on LinkedIn offering jobs. Let's say about 2-3 a week on average.
> 
> During COVID times, no messages, although I didn't have trouble finding myself a permanent role to switch to from my contracting work in April.
> 
> This week I have been contacted twice so far about 3 different roles, so looks like IT recruitment is starting back up.



You went quiet.
A mate/ neighbour recruiting for his digital disruptor is finding plenty of talent to recruit, as competition falls over.


----------



## wayneL (14 May 2020)

I have clients from all aspects of industries and social stratas.

It's actually quite interesting who is doing well and who isn't. I have a hospital supplies company that is not doing very well at all, and a mortgage broker who says he's busier than ever.

Disabilities employment person who is gearing up for a massive expansion, and a pathology company that's not doing so well.

Specialist mechanic that is absolutely struggling.

Hospital workers, nurses and doctors and whatnot that are sitting around twiddling their thumbs.

I even have a stripper who is just about starving because she has no income at all, (but still manages to find some money for the care of her horse).

I'm much busier than I expected to be but as I said before that remains to be seen whether that continues.

To be honest I'm finding it really difficult to get a tag on the direction of things.

One day, depending on the people I'm coming across that day the economy at ground level is going awesome, much better than one would expect. The next day things seems so diabolical I almost feel like slitting my wrists.

FWIW


----------



## wayneL (14 May 2020)

As a further WTF moment, my missus needs some orthopaedic surgery done... Found a excellent surgeon and just going to cough up the cost ourselves.

He has offered a  substantial discount because he wants something to do really soon.

We didn't ask for, nor were expecting any sort of discount, but there you go.


----------



## moXJO (14 May 2020)

Went to the golf driving range the other day. Owner said business is the best it's ever been.


----------



## moXJO (14 May 2020)

All gym equipment, push bikes, outdoor activities are selling well.


----------



## wayneL (15 May 2020)

moXJO said:


> All gym equipment, push bikes, outdoor activities are selling well.



Yes saw a huge queue outside a 99bikes last weekend and the local guy I drive past most days always busy. 

Mt Coo-tha bike trails are like central Amsterdam.


----------



## moXJO (15 May 2020)

Realistically (up to this point anyway) this has been a much needed recharge for the Australia population. More time with family and outdoors.
Hopefully an innovation explosion after minds have rested from the grind.


----------



## InsvestoBoy (16 May 2020)

Some of my winter warm clothes are getting a bit thin and the weather is turning so I decided I'd buy some stuff online at Bonds. Bought some trackpants and a hoodie, and they advertise it as "Australian cotton" but it is made in China.

It turned up and wasn't very good. Trackpants were thin, hoodie not warm, strange proportions etc.

Today my partner suggested we go to Uniqlo which is a Japanese brand popping up all over Sydney, very successful, to get better stuff. It was a nice day so we walked to Hurstville Westfield.

What can I tell you, I'm revising the XJO 9,000 forecast to XJO 10,0000, maybe XJO 50,000.

The shops were packed full of people ignoring social distancing. 

The line to pay at Uniqlo was huge, maybe 10-15 minutes wait to pay and a similar line of people waiting for fitting rooms. 

A chain I have never heard of, "TK Maxx" which pretty much looked like the clothes section of a Target, had *two* lines of people waiting patiently to get in.

I saw one guy wheeling a full trolley of homeware junk and a trampoline out of Big W.

The only stores that didn't look like they were printing money were the ones who had remained closed and jewellers.

Outside the Westfield, all the Asian grocers were as full as always and the several consecutive Chinese BBQ shops all had lines of people on the street waiting for their Saturday BBQ pork and duck like normal.

If there were expectations that customer preferences would be switched to online only, you can just throw that in the bin right now.


----------



## satanoperca (16 May 2020)

InsvestoBoy said:


> If there were expectations that customer preferences would be switched to online only, you can just throw that in the bin right now.




You are incorrect, as it is not black or white, the prevailing trend, is that online sales are increasing and bricks and mortar retailing is decreasing. Follow the trend through data, not your general observation.

There will always be a place for bricks and mortar retail, it is just the environment is changing.

Simply look at MYR and KGN to get a perspective. If you had $1000 to invest which one would it be and why?


----------



## moXJO (16 May 2020)

InsvestoBoy said:


> Some of my winter warm clothes are getting a bit thin and the weather is turning so I decided I'd buy some stuff online at Bonds. Bought some trackpants and a hoodie, and they advertise it as "Australian cotton" but it is made in China.
> 
> It turned up and wasn't very good. Trackpants were thin, hoodie not warm, strange proportions etc.
> 
> ...



I was out today and it was the same. Guaranteed second wave of coronavirus. People were everywhere. I did notice that sentiment shifted a few weeks back that scared me out of the market on shorts.

I'm thinking retail gets a sugar hit for a few weeks, maybe months.
I'm noticing people are gold plating their nests. Housewares, upgrades to homes, hobbies anything in case they have to bunker down.  It feels more like "prepping" rather than a return to normal to tell you the truth.
Once the rush wears off the money will go back to napping. 

I just can't see a quick recovery. But you have to play what's in front of you.


----------



## Dona Ferentes (16 May 2020)

went to the northern beaches(Northern Beaches). Cars everywhere, but no soccer mums and other event crowds, so traffic flowed. Barrenjoey still closed because it is a National Park. And still overpriced up that way, so went to Dee Why. People being rather circumspect; got the feeling we're all a bit stunned. Had fish'n'chips and a beer. First sitdown meal since 09 March. Owner got through 2 months selling the occasional coffee and take away, but the food sector won't do anything but limited menu and minimal staff until normal trading conditions return. Margins too tight (yes, i do like to sniff the breeze).

Some are keeping distance but too many aren't. I fear the relapse.


----------



## InsvestoBoy (16 May 2020)

satanoperca said:


> Follow the trend through data, not your general observation.




What thread do you think this is?


----------



## jbocker (17 May 2020)

Dona Ferentes said:


> Some are keeping distance but too many aren't. I fear the relapse.



 I also fear it. I can still see some caution around but not enough. A second wave is a normal occurrence that I am not sure people really appreciate. It can start from VERY small numbers. We are however well geared to treat early, but I dread the reaction of trying to perform another shut down. I reckon we are doing the right thing in coming out of lock down but not sure we have stressed the caution well enough.
Hopefully we have.


----------



## moXJO (22 May 2020)

I was a little shocked when I read this:



> The Australian Financial Security Authority (AFSA) released the personal insolvency statistics for the December quarter 2019. Personal insolvencies continued their downward trend with a 10.6% percent decrease compared to the December 2018 quarter. This brings total personal insolvencies to their lowest level since 1996.
> 
> The fall was consistent across Australia, with all states and territories registering a reduction in new personal insolvencies, apart from the ACT, which saw an increase of 7.9%.
> 
> Personal insolvencies fell across all three types of appointments. Bankruptcies were down 8.3% to their lowest level since 1994. Debt agreements saw another large drop of 21.5% nationally, taking them to their lowest level since 2008. Personal insolvency agreements also fell by 27%, taking them to their lowest level since records began in 1986.




http://www.mondaq.com/australia/ins...nsolvencies-fall-to-lowest-levels-in-20-years


Though they expect more insolvencies come September once the stimulus is stopped.
Got to say I was expecting a lot worse. Same with XOA and the Dow. I was expecting to be lower then where we are.

 Perhaps my thinking is stuck in bear mode.


----------



## basilio (22 May 2020)

Target stores  are now the  target. .
Big holes in retail shopping  centres and in regional Australia

*Target shuts up to 75 stores and converts others to Kmart, putting up to 1,300 jobs at risk*
Up to 167 Target and Target Country stores will be shut or converted to Kmart sites, putting as many as 1,300 jobs at risk.
Key points:


Between 10 to 25 Target stores will close

An additional 10 to 40 Target stores will be converted to Kmarts

About 52 Target Country stores will be converted to Kmarts, while the remaining 50 stores will be closed

The retailer's owner Wesfarmers is shrinking the struggling chain.
With more than 280 Target stores in Australia, the restructure could see more than half of the Target store network gone.
https://www.abc.net.au/news/2020-05...e-closed-down-others-to-be-converted/12275390


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## Garpal Gumnut (22 May 2020)

basilio said:


> Target stores  are now the  target. .
> Big holes in retail shopping  centres and in regional Australia
> 
> *Target shuts up to 75 stores and converts others to Kmart, putting up to 1,300 jobs at risk*
> ...



This was flagged months ago. 

Target as it was is gone. 

Having looked through the WES announcement it is a good decision for WES holders. 

Kmart will take up the slack and rebranding of many stores will occur. 

Maximum job losses will be 1000.

gg


----------



## Dona Ferentes (22 May 2020)

Garpal Gumnut said:


> This was flagged months ago.



 anticipated by market, WES share price hasn't moved


----------



## Dona Ferentes (22 May 2020)

Covid-19 ...

"“The retail world that would have existed in the year 2030 has been pulled into 2020. Brick and mortar retailers that were thinking of moving online have done so at an incredible clip over the last 8-10 weeks” 
_Harley Finkelstein, COO, Shopify Inc [multinational e-commerce software company_


----------



## So_Cynical (23 May 2020)

Westfield Parramatta was packed this afternoon, 3pm on a friday, took me 15 minutes to find a car space, 90% of shops open.


----------



## qldfrog (23 May 2020)

Not completed yet but verbal agreement for sale of a warehouse north of Brisbane.anecdotal but had been on the market for nearly 2 years so was very surprised when the (low but not bargain ) offer came.
One more step toward independence.
And a positive sign for the economy


----------



## SirRumpole (23 May 2020)

*Target shuts up to 75 stores and converts others to Kmart, putting up to 1,300 jobs at risk*

There is very little in K-Mart worth buying so I don't know how they stay in business either.


----------



## sptrawler (23 May 2020)

SirRumpole said:


> *Target shuts up to 75 stores and converts others to Kmart, putting up to 1,300 jobs at risk*
> 
> There is very little in K-Mart worth buying so I don't know how they stay in business either.



IMO, they are just compressing their range of products, as they integrate it with their catch platform, in a year or two the remaining stores will be culled again as they transition to the online platform.
Then the remaining KMart stores will be spun off like Coles.
Just my opinion.


----------



## Dona Ferentes (23 May 2020)

yep, ... but while the integration with, the migration to, digital is happening, it's not as if the retail sector is a static unresponsive monolith. Sure data and consumer trends can be observed, trends plotted, needs anticipated, but there is an element of consumer uptake that likes the 'shopping experience'. Just look at the post-restriction rush to locations over the last week (aided and abetted by 70% type discounts !!)

The location of and negotiations with shopping centres is another element that will impact the bottom lines and thus decision to stay or not. Some of it will come down to A or B grade or sub prime locations. Not everyone is a winner; this has merely shaken the tree .... stuff is falling out!


----------



## sptrawler (23 May 2020)

Dona Ferentes said:


> yep, ... but while the integration with, the migration to, digital is happening, it's not as if the retail sector is a static unresponsive monolith. Sure data and consumer trends can be observed, trends plotted, needs anticipated, but there is an element of consumer uptake that likes the 'shopping experience'. Just look at the post-restriction rush to locations over the last week (aided and abetted by 70% type discounts !!)
> 
> The location of and negotiations with shopping centres is another element that will impact the bottom lines and thus decision to stay or not. Some of it will come down to A or B grade or sub prime locations. Not everyone is a winner; this has merely shaken the tree .... stuff is falling out!



I agree 100%, I just think bricks and mortar retail, is not where WES thinks its future lies.
Bunnings works well, because people are looking for widgets that fit , discretionary retail lends itself to online IMO.


----------



## qldfrog (23 May 2020)

Kmart has filled the niche for nice trendy home decoration:
You do a reno, put your house on sale kmart is the go to, always updated cheap to give a chic look for the photos
They are making a killing this way, very representative of whay shops in china cities offer, as in Japan, add a bit of class or elegance design to every day items.
Can be kitch, trashy even but always cheap
Kmart as is, is here to stay imho unless it gets eaten by miju and similar shops when they arrive here


----------



## qldfrog (24 May 2020)

qldfrog said:


> Kmart has filled the niche for nice trendy home decoration:
> You do a reno, put your house on sale kmart is the go to, always updated cheap to give a chic look for the photos
> They are making a killing this way, very representative of whay shops in china cities offer, as in Japan, add a bit of class or elegance design to every day items.
> Can be kitch, trashy even but always cheap
> Kmart as is, is here to stay imho unless it gets eaten by miju and similar shops when they arrive here



Just saw TV ads for bunnings bundle offers.the virus has pushed forward different models which are here to stay and i think positive
This peculiar crisis will have some great positive


----------



## Dona Ferentes (24 May 2020)

went out (a big deal, in itself) to a friends for lunch and boozy afternoon. Taxi home at 6pm; the driver revealed we were his first fare since coming on shift at 3pm. I gave a tip.


----------



## sptrawler (24 May 2020)

Dona Ferentes said:


> went out (a big deal, in itself) to a friends for lunch and boozy afternoon. Taxi home at 6pm; the driver revealed we were his first fare since coming on shift at 3pm. I gave a tip.



What tip did you give? Nearmaps, Wetfarmers.


----------



## Garpal Gumnut (24 May 2020)

Dona Ferentes said:


> went out (a big deal, in itself) to a friends for lunch and boozy afternoon. Taxi home at 6pm; the driver revealed we were his first fare since coming on shift at 3pm. I gave a tip.



There are many affected by the lockdown. 

Gotta feel sorry for him. Was he an owner or a driver?

gg


----------



## Garpal Gumnut (24 May 2020)

qldfrog said:


> Kmart has filled the niche for nice trendy home decoration:
> You do a reno, put your house on sale kmart is the go to, always updated cheap to give a chic look for the photos
> They are making a killing this way, very representative of whay shops in china cities offer, as in Japan, add a bit of class or elegance design to every day items.
> Can be kitch, trashy even but always cheap
> Kmart as is, is here to stay imho unless it gets eaten by miju and similar shops when they arrive here



I believe Kmart is safe. Very few overseas retailers will risk Covid-21 or Covid-22 occurring.

WES has done its sums. Kmart stays. Target goes. Pretty soon Myer will be gone. It will be just Kmart and possibly a rejuvenated BigW once Woolies gets taken over by a Solly Lew or someone else. 

gg


----------



## qldfrog (24 May 2020)

Garpal Gumnut said:


> I believe Kmart is safe. Very few overseas retailers will risk Covid-21 or Covid-22 occurring.
> 
> WES has done its sums. Kmart stays. Target goes. Pretty soon Myer will be gone. It will be just Kmart and possibly a rejuvenated BigW once Woolies gets taken over by a Solly Lew or someone else.
> 
> gg



Big W offers more food stuff than kmart, i mean chocolate gifts etc but in my opinion, doomed
I see David Jones or just conglomerate of top brands under an informal umbrella in each capital cities, no Myer or Target/ Big W, 
Kmart as the reference fighting some new Miju or Miniso (much smaller footage) shops for cute bric a brac
Aldi, woolies and Coles for the daily goods
That is basically it


----------



## Dona Ferentes (24 May 2020)

DJs has converted a BP servo  selling crisps and chocolate milk to a high end foodhall experience and ready to eat meals. This is on high traffic easy ingress egress inner city Victoria Rd just off Anzac bridge. Don't think it's gaining traction .


----------



## sptrawler (24 May 2020)

I think it will take 3-5 years to play out, but I think frog is right, DJ's, KMart and a few specialty shops. If Wes keep KMart it will be as a click and collect option for Catch IMO.
The World is changing, or in Australia's case catching up, big shopping centers have been dying in the U.S for some time apparently.


----------



## Garpal Gumnut (24 May 2020)

Dona Ferentes said:


> DJs has converted a BP servo  selling crisps and chocolate milk to a high end foodhall experience and ready to eat meals. This is on high traffic easy ingress egress inner city Victoria Rd just off Anzac bridge. Don't think it's gaining traction .



Pray tell what city is this in. 

Darwin or Wagga?

gg


----------



## Smurf1976 (24 May 2020)

Dona Ferentes said:


> DJs has converted a BP servo selling crisps and chocolate milk to a high end foodhall experience and ready to eat meals.



Sounds like the UK model where servos, particularly those on the motorways but also others, have the shop part run by or at least carrying the brand name of one of the major supermarket chains.

In that context M&S is comparable to what I assume DJ's would be doing and M&S doesn't do "cheap" whereas some other UK chains simply don't do "premium". The range of products on offer is influenced by the chain far more than it is in Australia where just about all supermarkets sell comparable products.

As such, what's on offer in the servo's shop varies hugely from cheap to expensive. Depends what brand the supermarket part carries which is separate to the fuel brand.


----------



## Humid (24 May 2020)

Garpal Gumnut said:


> Pray tell what city is this in.
> 
> Darwin or Wagga?
> 
> gg



More backward......think rhymes with Townsville


----------



## So_Cynical (25 May 2020)

SirRumpole said:


> *Target shuts up to 75 stores and converts others to Kmart, putting up to 1,300 jobs at risk*
> 
> There is very little in K-Mart worth buying so I don't know how they stay in business either.




You may not have been into a Kmart for a while, they have morphed into a kind of Ikea without the furniture, Aldi for electricals and clothes etc.


----------



## Smurf1976 (25 May 2020)

qldfrog said:


> Big W offers more food stuff than kmart, i mean chocolate gifts etc but in my opinion, doomed
> I see David Jones or just conglomerate of top brands under an informal umbrella in each capital cities, no Myer or Target/ Big W,
> Kmart as the reference fighting some new Miju or Miniso (much smaller footage) shops for cute bric a brac




Quality is an issue in all this as well as price.

I've got some old items of clothing from Target and even after being worn however many times an old T-shirt is still better than the brand new ones they sell today. The fabric now is ridiculously thin, dies fade, stitching comes out and so on. 

I think part of the reason these shops are struggling is that apart from DJ's and to a lesser extent Myer, all the rest are pitched at the same customers for whom price is the primary or even only factor driving their decision.

It seems to be much the same across other areas of retail. If you want quality then with few exceptions you need to go to a specialist, the mass market places are all targeting the bottom end of the market.


----------



## SirRumpole (25 May 2020)

So_Cynical said:


> You may not have been into a Kmart for a while, they have morphed into a kind of Ikea without the furniture, Aldi for electricals and clothes etc.




I was in K-Mart last week. very little furniture, small selection of (men's) clothes, a few kitchen appliances, but lots of toys and baby stuff.

Big-W in my area at least has a bigger variety of merchandise.


----------



## SirRumpole (25 May 2020)

Smurf1976 said:


> Quality is an issue in all this as well as price.
> 
> I've got some old items of clothing from Target and even after being worn however many times an old T-shirt is still better than the brand new ones they sell today. The fabric now is ridiculously thin, dies fade, stitching comes out and so on.
> 
> ...




I bought a set of thermal underwear from K-Mart last week. So thin that I had to put another layer underneath and I'm still cold. It's rubbish.


----------



## jbocker (25 May 2020)

Smurf1976 said:


> Quality is an issue in all this as well as price.
> 
> I've got some old items of clothing from Target and even after being worn however many times an old T-shirt is still better than the brand new ones they sell today. The fabric now is ridiculously thin, dies fade, stitching comes out and so on.
> 
> ...



I wonder if there is a developing market for Buy Quality & Buy Less. 
The doc and others say I should drink less (done worrie I done hava plobrem) so I spend more on a quality wine or craft beer and do drink a lot less. I appreciate it and it is overall a far better outcome. I think the same would apply for most things.


----------



## basilio (25 May 2020)

jbocker said:


> I wonder if there is a developing market for Buy Quality & Buy Less.




Yeah.... 
In fact it costs relatively little more to make a quality long life product vs a  cheap unit and lasts until next week.

The trouble of course is that our entire economic system is now based on making more and selling more and more stuff.  That's it. End of story.  To achieve that end  we need systems of relentless marketing, "new"proucts (regardless of new or value) and a rapid breakdown or built in obsolescence for older ones.

This is economic growth  and environmental suicide 101.


----------



## Humid (25 May 2020)

jbocker said:


> I wonder if there is a developing market for Buy Quality & Buy Less.
> The doc and others say I should drink less (done worrie I done hava plobrem) so I spend more on a quality wine or craft beer and do drink a lot less. I appreciate it and it is overall a far better outcome. I think the same would apply for most things.




Stout weather


----------



## jbocker (25 May 2020)

basilio said:


> The trouble of course is that our entire economic system is now based on making more and selling more and more stuff. That's it. End of story. To achieve that end we need systems of relentless marketing, "new"proucts (regardless of new or value) and a rapid breakdown or built in obsolescence for older ones.



*The marketing world is controlled by Fashionists!!*
I am going to launch a rebellion!
To start, the next time the Mrs heads for a shoe shop. I will stop her! You have plenty at home!!
WHY NOT? I ask of you reading this. I have top level health and hospital insurance.


----------



## sptrawler (25 May 2020)

basilio said:


> Yeah....
> In fact it costs relatively little more to make a quality long life product vs a  cheap unit and lasts until next week.
> 
> The trouble of course is that our entire economic system is now based on making more and selling more and more stuff.  That's it. End of story.  To achieve that end  we need systems of relentless marketing, "new"proucts (regardless of new or value) and a rapid breakdown or built in obsolescence for older ones.
> ...




As we have said, it is one of the major factors in climate change, an increasing population and the energy required to supply the population with more and more junk that last a shorter time.
Hardly anything is repaired now, as you say the whole world is built on obsolescence and we are trying to sort it by making the energy cleaner. Weird logics.
As the corona virus showed emissions fell 17%, just make $hit last longer, teach people that they don't need to flip stuff every year.
If we can reduce our power requirement by 20%, it gives a huge opportunity, to shut old generators.
A bit off topic, but still something that needs addressing, e.g car sales have fallen off a cliff with the virus but they are still being pumped out.


----------



## SirRumpole (25 May 2020)

sptrawler said:


> As we have said, it is one of the major factors in climate change, an increasing population and the energy required to supply the population with more and more junk that last a shorter time.
> Hardly anything is repaired now, as you say the whole world is built on obsolescence and we are trying to sort it by making the energy cleaner. Weird logics.
> As the corona virus showed emissions fell 17%, just make $hit last longer, teach people that they don't need to flip stuff every year.
> If we can reduce our power requirement by 20%, it gives a huge opportunity, to shut old generators.
> A bit off topic, but still something that needs addressing, e.g car sales have fallen off a cliff with the virus but they are still being pumped out.




Speaking of repairs, did you see the item on Landline, where farmers are demanding a "right to repair" their own tractors and farm equipment ?

Apparently the dealers keep secret their software for engine management etc and only the dealers can access it. It seems as if there is farmers are now welded onto their dealers in times of trouble.

I feel for them but I doubt if their is much alternative, most farmers don't have electronics degrees so there wouldn't be much they could do anyway to service their own machines.


----------



## jbocker (25 May 2020)

SirRumpole said:


> Speaking of repairs, did you see the item on Landline, where farmers are demanding a "right to repair" their own tractors and farm equipment ?
> 
> Apparently the dealers keep secret their software for engine management etc and only the dealers can access it. It seems as if there is farmers are now welded onto their dealers in times of trouble.
> 
> I feel for them but I doubt if their is much alternative, most farmers don't have electronics degrees so there wouldn't be much they could do anyway to service their own machines.



It is a bit like the printer for your computer, the printer costs bugger-all just a little more than the replacement ink cartridges.


----------



## sptrawler (25 May 2020)

SirRumpole said:


> Speaking of repairs, did you see the item on Landline, where farmers are demanding a "right to repair" their own tractors and farm equipment ?
> 
> Apparently the dealers keep secret their software for engine management etc and only the dealers can access it. It seems as if there is farmers are now welded onto their dealers in times of trouble.
> 
> I feel for them but I doubt if their is much alternative, most farmers don't have electronics degrees so there wouldn't be much they could do anyway to service their own machines.



That's so true Rumpy a mate of mine used to put in dams 30 years ago, had a D7G Cat, we were always pulling it to bits and fixing it. Now the electronics on even the most basic diesel requires a laptop or OBD2 reader to even find out why it stopped.
The mapping of the ecu on the farm equipment would be set with a degree of safety, once a farmer got in there, well you know what farmers are like.


----------



## Smurf1976 (25 May 2020)

SirRumpole said:


> I feel for them but I doubt if their is much alternative, most farmers don't have electronics degrees so there wouldn't be much they could do anyway to service their own machines.




Where the problem arises is that the current practice prevents an independent technician from repairing the machine and forces the farmer to rely on the dealer.


----------



## Smurf1976 (25 May 2020)

basilio said:


> In fact it costs relatively little more to make a quality long life product vs a cheap unit and lasts until next week.



Yep - in some cases nothing more than using a different alloy in the casting or using a different type of plastic.

There are exceptions, there are some situations where it does make sense to replace old with new from both an economic and resources / environment perspective, but those are exceptions not the norm.

There’s also a loss of skills aspect to it all. If you want someone who understands how things work, how to identify what’s wrong and how to fix it then reality is most who can do that are age 40+. In due course the skills will be lost completely.


----------



## Garpal Gumnut (25 May 2020)

SirRumpole said:


> Speaking of repairs, did you see the item on Landline, where farmers are demanding a "right to repair" their own tractors and farm equipment ?
> 
> Apparently the dealers keep secret their software for engine management etc and only the dealers can access it. It seems as if there is farmers are now welded onto their dealers in times of trouble.
> 
> I feel for them but I doubt if their is much alternative, most farmers don't have electronics degrees so there wouldn't be much they could do anyway to service their own machines.



It's why I hang on to my old Bentley.

It doesn't need a computer to fix bugger all which costs $200-500 like some Nissans. 

gg


----------



## jbocker (25 May 2020)

CAUTION: Insurance Tenant Protection policies and Covid 19.
I have a rental property due for insurance renewal. Because I rented the property to my daughter for a number of years I didn't bother having Tenant Protection (loss of rent, malicious damage etc) on the property. Daughter has moved out and a new tenant has moved in, I have asked for the insurance renewal to now include Tenant Protection. NO you cannot have it, was the answer. The reason why is the Covid-19.
I have other properties which have tenant protection and I asked what about them. Yes we are honouring that in the renewals but NOT for new insurances. The chap then went on to explain and we (the company) are the only ones that provide that cover (in renewals). 
So a word of caution to be aware of, with your policy renewals.. Tenant Protection may be dead while Covid-19 is at play. Anyone else heard this sort of news out on the street?
Unfortunately I was in the midst of inquiring further detail when I was cut off, (crap weather in Perth) and my chances of getting the same chap isn't likely.


----------



## Belli (25 May 2020)

jbocker said:


> CAUTION: Insurance Tenant Protection policies and Covid 19.




I've heard most insurers such as Terry Sheer will not take on new policies currently as a result of Covid-19.  Doesn't cover loss of rent anyway if the tenant is ill due to say Covid-19, cannot work and cannot pay the rent in those cases.  Only covers legal default.

Could be tough going for some landlords.

Disclaimer: I've never had an IP although my late wife did but only once and for less than a couple of years.


----------



## BlindSquirrel (26 May 2020)

jbocker said:


> CAUTION: Insurance Tenant Protection policies and Covid 19.
> I have a rental property due for insurance renewal. Because I rented the property to my daughter for a number of years I didn't bother having Tenant Protection (loss of rent, malicious damage etc) on the property. Daughter has moved out and a new tenant has moved in, I have asked for the insurance renewal to now include Tenant Protection. NO you cannot have it, was the answer. The reason why is the Covid-19.
> I have other properties which have tenant protection and I asked what about them. Yes we are honouring that in the renewals but NOT for new insurances. The chap then went on to explain and we (the company) are the only ones that provide that cover (in renewals).
> So a word of caution to be aware of, with your policy renewals.. Tenant Protection may be dead while Covid-19 is at play. Anyone else heard this sort of news out on the street?
> Unfortunately I was in the midst of inquiring further detail when I was cut off, (crap weather in Perth) and my chances of getting the same chap isn't likely.




So... long QBE?


----------



## jbocker (26 May 2020)

BlindSquirrel said:


> So... long QBE?



It was AAMI who I was dealing with.


----------



## InsvestoBoy (26 May 2020)

A friend of mine was scheduled to have some elective surgery done, postponed due to COVID. Very suddenly the hospital called them and told them they had re-opened for elective surgery and could they come in just a few days from now.

A lot of shut down private hospitals must be coming back online. Many nurses, attendees, etc will be back to work.


----------



## jbocker (27 May 2020)

InsvestoBoy said:


> A friend of mine was scheduled to have some elective surgery done, postponed due to COVID. Very suddenly the hospital called them and told them they had re-opened for elective surgery and could they come in just a few days from now.
> 
> A lot of shut down private hospitals must be coming back online. Many nurses, attendees, etc will be back to work.



Father in Law just had three hernias done under medicare. He had been waiting ages and was close to being called up when covid-19 stalled everything. The hospitals have cranked up and they were churning through plenty in the short stay ward.


----------



## Smurf1976 (27 May 2020)

jbocker said:


> He had been waiting ages and was close to being called up when covid-19 stalled everything.



I never really understood what the rationale was for stopping surgeries in hospitals?

Stopping them if the hospitals were needed to treat COVID-19 patients sure but not just for the sake of it. Presumably there was some reason?


----------



## jbocker (27 May 2020)

Smurf1976 said:


> I never really understood what the rationale was for stopping surgeries in hospitals?
> 
> Stopping them if the hospitals were needed to treat COVID-19 patients sure but not just for the sake of it. Presumably there was some reason?



I think it was all about preparing for an onslaught of Covid-19 cases and all else were included in the lock down strategy. this also minimised potentially affected people entering hospitals or their visitors. All Emergencies excluded of course.


----------



## aus_trader (27 May 2020)

Although I haven't actively commented on this thread, I have been reading fellow posters and being on the sidelines one thing I noticed is there is slight improvement in the sentiment from the March period.

Although we are not out of the woods yet, with Schools and some businesses opening up with the easing there is a little bit of optimism. Market today was suggesting a bit more than a little bit of optimism.



Which gave me confidence to buy a couple of stocks for the Speculative Stock Portfolio.


----------



## qldfrog (27 May 2020)

I think it is pretty clear for anyone with common sense that we know now that even at its worst aka Italy Spain France, this is a relatively manageable biological issue.
Hospital are empty,and where is the argument of flattening the curve in Australia?
eradication more like it,however dumb that idea can be...
The scary headlines about the US do not change that fact
We did not know the threat 3 months ago.
Now the question people will and should have if why are we still inflicting ourself these economic  damages?
Is that the way the governments have decided to bite the bullet,and start the reset which should have occured in 2007?
Expect many so called conspiracy theories coming into the open with widespread adoption..and there could be a lot of truth behind.
Is the virus used as a pretext, and this will be the street level question in everyone's mind in the coming months


----------



## Dona Ferentes (27 May 2020)

I don't know if this is a brighter note, but we're getting back to normal. I've been called for Jury Duty. Must be quite a backlog, I've read.

The documentation provided outlining Covid safe operation is worthy of a public servant. Sanitiser, distancing, video.


----------



## Dona Ferentes (27 May 2020)

Close family member has an upmarket escape/ getaway AirBnB located in a state that is opening up. Put it on for availability yesterday; 4 bookings within half an hour.


----------



## InsvestoBoy (27 May 2020)

Following on from @Dona Ferentes post in the TYR thread https://www.aussiestockforums.com/threads/tyr-tyro-payments.35068/page-2#post-1074283

on the other side of the transaction



CBA credit card data *UP *4% YoY, ANZ up 2.3% YoY.

*UP!
*
That's huge.


----------



## Dona Ferentes (27 May 2020)

InsvestoBoy said:


> CBA credit card data *UP *4% YoY, ANZ up 2.3% YoY.
> 
> *UP!
> *
> That's huge.



 A bit of stimulus, and voilà

But do you reckon cash is down a few percent in this tap n go era?


----------



## sptrawler (27 May 2020)

Dona Ferentes said:


> A bit of stimulus, and voilà
> 
> But do you reckon cash is down a few percent in this tap n go era?



That is going to be a very interesting stat, and my guess is this has accelerated the march toward a generally 'cashless' system.


----------



## InsvestoBoy (27 May 2020)

Dona Ferentes said:


> A bit of stimulus, and voilà




Are you sure?

You can lead a horse to stimulus but you can't make it spend.



> But do you reckon cash is down a few percent in this tap n go era?




Who knows...I try and keep track of the credit card data because it's weekly, that's pretty much the fastest economic/macro proxy data you can get for Australia. It tracks pretty well for forecasting slower monthly/quarterly macro stuff.


----------



## Smurf1976 (27 May 2020)

sptrawler said:


> my guess is this has accelerated the march toward a generally 'cashless' system.



I could be wrong but my perception is that the broad overall effect of the pandemic has been to accelerate most trends. Things which were going to happen in due course have been brought forward and that seems to apply to just about everything. Change that was coming, was forced to happen far more quickly.


----------



## aus_trader (27 May 2020)

qldfrog said:


> Is that the way the governments have decided to bite the bullet,and start the reset which should have occured in 2007?



What will that look like if it eventually occur ?
Are we talking a debt reset, an economic reset or some form of fiat reset ?



Smurf1976 said:


> Things which were going to happen in due course have been brought forward and that seems to apply to just about everything. Change that was coming, was forced to happen far more quickly.



Are we referring to change at individual level, in terms of reducing spending and being frugal etc ? Or is it change at higher economy, market or company level ?


----------



## Garpal Gumnut (27 May 2020)

InsvestoBoy said:


> Following on from @Dona Ferentes post in the TYR thread https://www.aussiestockforums.com/threads/tyr-tyro-payments.35068/page-2#post-1074283
> 
> on the other side of the transaction
> 
> ...




I would challenge the interpretation by Millennial Tim on this spending. 

This is debt.

It is spending by muppets. The middle class and public servants are holding on to their savings. 

Another reason cash is down is that all the drug affected people and dealers are in lockdown. Household break-ins are down. I could quite happily have lockdown for a few years.

The economy is rooted and will stay so for 3-5 years. China is gone. The Universities and tourism are wrecked. Even that much maligned cohort of grey nomads are only venturing as far as Aldi.

Remember the virus is still there. It has only settled because of lockdown and we are heading in to winter.

gg


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## qldfrog (27 May 2020)

aus_trader said:


> What will that look like if it eventually occur ?
> Are we talking a debt reset, an economic reset or some form of fiat reset ?
> 
> 
> Are we referring to change at individual level, in terms of reducing spending and being frugal etc ? Or is it change at higher economy, market or company level ?



Let's be honest none of Europe or US china Japan debt can be repaid and standard inflation.. the standard solution is not taking so we can change currency and decreed inflation /change rate new to old dollars, wipe the debt and plenty in between including sizing assets and compensating with new monopoly money
I have only one certitude the 99% will be the screwed 9nes.. probably more like the 99.9pc
Why else destroying purposely our economy?
Now that we know places like Spain etc got what :30k deaths probably at most 20k extra ones yet wr create an economic crisis which will definitively kill a factor of magnitude more 
More at home, the flattening the curve is morphing into eradication..which is madness in concept unless we start a North Korea country wide isolation from the external world...
Makes no sense


----------



## Smurf1976 (27 May 2020)

aus_trader said:


> Are we referring to change at individual level, in terms of reducing spending and being frugal etc ? Or is it change at higher economy, market or company level ?



I'm thinking in terms of things being done, or at least tried, which under normal circumstances would have taken years if ever to occur.

Physical shopfront businesses that were forced to go online. They'd have slowly gone broke "business as usual" but the stark reality of people in lockdown forced change which will ultimately keep them in business or at least improve their chances.

Offices with a very traditional business approach which were forced to do away with excessive meetings and to have employees working from home. That might otherwise have taken a few more decades to occur in some places.

Older people who realised they needed to get their minds around the whole concept of shopping online and have now done so. Odds are they'd have gone to their grave never having done it if not for the pandemic.

Etc. It has forced not the invention of anything new but rather the adoption and use of things which already existed but weren't being used to their full potential. Some of that will stick around and be of longer term benefit. Not all, but some almost certainly will.


----------



## aus_trader (27 May 2020)

qldfrog said:


> Let's be honest none of Europe or US china Japan debt can be repaid and standard inflation.. the standard solution is not taking so we can change currency and decreed inflation /change rate new to old dollars, wipe the debt and plenty in between including sizing assets and compensating with new monopoly money
> I have only one certitude the 99% will be the screwed 9nes.. probably more like the 99.9pc
> Why else destroying purposely our economy?
> Now that we know places like Spain etc got what :30k deaths probably at most 20k extra ones yet wr create an economic crisis which will definitively kill a factor of magnitude more
> ...



Initially I came across your posts as a systems trader only. But now I am awed  at your level of thinking and knowledge in the wider scheme of things and they are very much aligned with my own views.

I was thinking about all this well before the virus, how unsustainable the sovereign debt growth of all the QE nations are and how and when it would unravel or resolve itself.

My thinking is, we are the 99%, unless there is a Central Bank financial elite in this forum or one of their investment bank buddies who gets all the QE benefits like JP Morgan etc. But I am also one of the least pessimistic. May sound , but if I can put it humbly: I am the sort of guy who can be buried in a sewer to drown but may still come out eating through all that . So despite what/who we might be up against, we will still fight for the best outcome.

I have thought about the debt issue and what a reset may look like quite a lot over the last few years actually. I was hopeful for a global debt forgiveness type of reset where the nations unable to pay back or even make interest payments on the debt may be forgiven or written off. But with the geopolitical tensions and trade wars with the super powers of the world I think such a dreamy fairytale is unlikely. So it may come down to what you described, which may include seizing of assets to repay the public debt. At what level I don't know:

At public company level, by slicing a portion of all public companies i.e. share market
At property level, by introducing new land and property taxes or hiking existing ones
At income level with even higher taxes
At Cash level by giving citizens a fraction of the purchasing power with a replacement currency or freeze the banks and take a % off all deposits as happened in some of the European nations that defaulted on their sovereign debt
At individual level of seizing personal assets like confiscating of all Gold privately held by the Government as has happened in the USA in the past
Whatever happens, we will have little control other than gambling on asset allocation hoping one asset may be favoured over another or protesting on the streets when it all happens etc. So my most optimistic answer is, we will carry on as usual and I'll join all you ASF buggers on the street when the protesting begins where our assets starts getting seized/confiscated one day...


----------



## jbocker (27 May 2020)

qldfrog said:


> More at home, the flattening the curve is morphing into eradication..which is madness in concept unless we start a North Korea country wide isolation from the external world...



Yep that is the bit that spooks me. You know that when you open the door the big fat gorilla IS THERE waiting for you.  How long can we keep the door shut waiting to develop the gun that blows it away.
Can we keep it shut for a couple of years? (genuine question)


----------



## aus_trader (28 May 2020)

Looks like we are not far behind NZ in terms of getting on top of it...



https://www.msn.com/en-au/news/coro...spital-nationwide/ar-BB14FI8n?ocid=spartanntp

But we still have to be careful not to let the cat out of the bag until we hit zero cases day after day, week after week like NZ. Especially given it's an invisible cat


----------



## qldfrog (28 May 2020)

aus_trader said:


> Looks like we are not far behind NZ in terms of getting on top of it...
> 
> View attachment 103865
> 
> ...



But Is it the aim?
If the aim was flattening the curve, we should wish for more infections , treated properly in fully functioning hospitals..
The current policies and behaviour will ONLY work with a fully functioning vaccine,found very quickly.
my own view is that it will NEVER..well in the next 20y..happen

Seeing how Paluchet digs in, not to admit fault, our politicians will not admit being wrong and it could be a while before travel starts again.
We will brag about being virus free for years becoming the Amish of the world isolated on our island?
Getting obviously fully out of subject for the thread


----------



## qldfrog (28 May 2020)

aus_trader said:


> Initially I came across your posts as a systems trader only. But now I am awed  at your level of thinking and knowledge in the wider scheme of things and they are very much aligned with my own views.



I am blushing, is that the start of a bromance? 
You are too kind,i know too little on too many things to be an expert in any, unless you are interested in stockpile modelisation ;-)
But thanks


----------



## InsvestoBoy (28 May 2020)

Garpal Gumnut said:


> I would challenge the interpretation by Millennial Tim on this spending.




He's just quoting an AFR article.



> This is debt.
> 
> It is spending by muppets. The middle class and public servants are holding on to their savings.




The point of the thread is to talk about the state of the economy at street level. 

If credit card spending is up year over year, that is a huge amount of spending.

Either you are right and it's muppets and the middle class is not participating: in which case that means the money spent on net is even more massive, to drive a YoY increase.

Or you are wrong, because I can see plenty of middle class people at the shopping centers in Sydney who are spending and lining up to spend, which I posted example observation of recently.



> Another reason cash is down is that all the drug affected people and dealers are in lockdown. Household break-ins are down. I could quite happily have lockdown for a few years.




I know this is wrong because again, at the street level, I still see syringes on the street and the usual area junkies doing their thing.



> The economy is rooted and will stay so for 3-5 years. China is gone. The Universities and tourism are wrecked. Even that much maligned cohort of grey nomads are only venturing as far as Aldi.




Bring us some observations from the street Garpal. What I see today when I am outside doesn't look like a rooted economy, regardless of how I feel about what "should" happen.


----------



## InsvestoBoy (28 May 2020)

qldfrog said:


> Let's be honest none of Europe or US china Japan debt can be repaid and standard inflation.. the standard solution is not taking so we can change currency and decreed inflation /change rate new to old dollars, wipe the debt and plenty in between including sizing assets and compensating with new monopoly money
> I have only one certitude the 99% will be the screwed 9nes.. probably more like the 99.9pc
> Why else destroying purposely our economy?




This is just recycling the same economic talking point that has been so consistently wrong for so long. Japan has been growing their debt that can't be repaid more and more without issue. New bonds are sold regularly with heavy demand.

Our own Government is auctioning billions of AUD in bonds on a weekly basis without problems.

Forget what you think should happen and look at what is happening.



> More at home, the flattening the curve is morphing into eradication..which is madness in concept unless we start a North Korea country wide isolation from the external world...
> Makes no sense




I agree with flattening the curve vs eradication, but that said, I think we are learning more and more about the virus and it's not so simply as we first thought. Some people have caught it, felt fine and then suddenly had a stroke. We don't know enough about asymptomatic carriers still. Lack of caution could result in catastrophe, so until we learn more better to be safe than sorry.


----------



## qldfrog (28 May 2020)

Answer deleted.no point


----------



## jbocker (28 May 2020)

qldfrog said:


> Getting obviously fully out of subject for the thread



It has been, but to swing it back on thread, it has been great to walk the streets again, have been enjoying 'sit down' coffees.  I am glad to see that the shops are sticking with taking names and numbers (for tracing) and keeping to the customer limits. Not surprising they would be diligent - many businesses would fear another lockdown.
All this names and number taking makes wonder when I will be getting sms on the phone offering Discounts on Doughnuts from about 30 different coffee shops.  Yummmm.


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## qldfrog (28 May 2020)

Indeed first sit down coffee and cake last week was a delight


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## moXJO (28 May 2020)

People are spending. Only problem is the supply routes are not keeping stores stocked. Price hikes in stores I bet.
I actually lashed out on some updated crap. Nothing like sitting round the house noticing things are a decade or more old and can't keep up.
Also picked up more hobbies so more money to waste. I think since November last year to now is the most consumer spending I have done in a while.


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## moXJO (28 May 2020)

Harvey Norman was packed just now. Electrical goods are selling well. Talking to a salesman and the have been flat out. People fluffing the nest. 
Earlier this morning on a walk by the beach noticed bikes were everywhere. Mainly aged 40 plus. Haven't seen that many in decades.


----------



## sptrawler (28 May 2020)

moXJO said:


> Harvey Norman was packed just now. Electrical goods are selling well. Talking to a salesman and the have been flat out. People fluffing the nest.
> Earlier this morning on a walk by the beach noticed bikes were everywhere. Mainly aged 40 plus. Haven't seen that many in decades.



Yes I think a lot of the stimulus money has been sitting in a draw, now as the clouds are starting to lift over the virus issue, people are loosening their purse strings.
If this proves to be the case, it has been an amazing navigation of the economic dip, I've never seen anything like it in my life, unbelievable if it works.


----------



## sptrawler (28 May 2020)

moXJO said:


> Earlier this morning on a walk by the beach noticed bikes were everywhere. Mainly aged 40 plus. Haven't seen that many in decades.



With regards the bikes, the wife and I do a lot of bike riding and since the virus started the amount of people on bikes is unbelievable, family groups as well.
Also our local BigW store is empty of bikes, I asked the shop assistant, he said they all sold in the first couple of weeks. 
So obviously bike supplies from China have been affected, or the store would be re stocked by now.
It will be interesting to see if the trend continues after everything re starts, or if we see a lot of bikes on the verge, next junk pick up time.


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## qldfrog (28 May 2020)

sptrawler said:


> With regards the bikes, the wife and I do a lot of bike riding and since the virus started the amount of people on bikes is unbelievable, family groups as well.
> Also our local BigW store is empty of bikes, I asked the shop assistant, he said they all sold in the first couple of weeks.
> So obviously bike supplies from China have been affected, or the store would be re stocked by now.
> It will be interesting to see if the trend continues after everything re starts, or if we see a lot of bikes on the verge, next junk pick up time.



went to a local shopping center today and had to go thru the 5 coffee places there, then come back to our favorite and queue to be able to get a table for 3..Does not mean the place was very busy, quite empty actually ..But with the 10 customers  limit here in qld, it is hard to actually spend your money.


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## Humid (28 May 2020)

Northern suburbs of Perth you would struggle to see any change
Bunnings possibly more busy during the week than normal
Everything else is business as usual
Traffic is same same


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## wayneL (28 May 2020)

Still a mixed bag in my circle. Some doing as good or better than normal.

Some totally FUBAR.

I'm still operating as normal ATM... But some supplies getting harder to get hold of.


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## sptrawler (28 May 2020)

Drove from Perth to Mandurah at 16.45, the traffic is back to pre covid levels, bumper to bumper for the first 20klm.
Stop start, for the first 10klm.


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## wabullfrog (28 May 2020)

sptrawler said:


> Drove from Perth to Mandurah at 16.45, the traffic is back to pre covid levels, bumper to bumper for the first 20klm.
> Stop start, for the first 10klm.




Maybe a few trying to make an early getaway before the long weekend? I imagine the roads South will not be much fun tomorrow.


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## sptrawler (28 May 2020)

wabullfrog said:


> Maybe a few trying to make an early getaway before the long weekend? I imagine the roads South will not be much fun tomorrow.



Three weeks ago, hardly any traffic at the same time same day, last week a lot heavier, today back to normal.
But as you say the long weekend may have had an effect, but not many cars with bikes and gear on them, tommorrow will be  bedlam IMO.


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## lindsayf (29 May 2020)

aus_trader said:


> Initially I came across your posts as a systems trader only. But now I am awed  at your level of thinking and knowledge in the wider scheme of things and they are very much aligned with my own views.
> 
> I was thinking about all this well before the virus, how unsustainable the sovereign debt growth of all the QE nations are and how and when it would unravel or resolve itself.
> 
> ...




Haha
Thats a very pessimistic post by a not pessimistic person


----------



## aus_trader (30 May 2020)

lindsayf said:


> Haha
> Thats a very pessimistic post by a not pessimistic person



Thanks for reading the post lindsayf, but I think it's not meant to be pessimistic. I love to be optimistic in most things but sometimes a reality check of the bigger picture keeps you humble and also somewhat nimble.

I hope we will be in better shape than some of the other developed nations and I hope our policy makers do things that are in the interest of the nation's prosperity in the long term. So I hope some of the things I mentioned does not ever come to fruition so that we can carry on as normal.

I think outside the normal boundaries and the system set for us by the elites of society. These include Governments, Councils and other law making organisations and Central and Reserve bankers etc. These things I talked about are really big picture stuff and I am sorry if I sounded pessimistic. I will not post such views going forward. What I think doesn't matter anyway as I am not in a position high enough to action my views to steer Australia to ensure we stay 'the lucky' country, so I am really really hopeful others with power and Governance will do that for all of us.

~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~ The End On Macro Economic Pessimistic Views ~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~


Change of subject:
---------------------

Getting back on subject, since we are talking economy at street level, what do people think about the Job Keeper, Job Seeker and PM's new Job Maker schemes ?

I don't want to open a can of worms, but I think our community has been unfairly treated. So I will go ahead...

With the Job Seeker/Keeper schemes, there was a very vulnerable group of people who missed out on any assistance during this period of shutdowns, job losses and reduced incomes. They are the part-time, casual and workers in alternate careers such as arts/music etc.

You see, some of these part-timers and casuals and even some artists etc barely get by even in a normal economy that was operating in full capacity in 2019. Some work two or more part-time or casual jobs or do some odd jobs in the gig economy where the incomes already fluctuate so much that they tend to worry if they have enough work just to get by month-on-month. So when the lockdowns hit and when these group of workers in our communities hot hit hard, their applications for any assistance was rejected.

Instead it was given to employers to continue to fund the full time employees who didn't have a job with Job Keeper or to Unemployed with Job Seeker. I don't know if people understand the irony but these people who got the benefits already had some buffer to get through the hard time:

If you were an eligible Job Keeper, you already had payouts from your employer for retrenchment payouts, any accumulated sick leave pay and accumulated annual leave pay. And for Job Seekers, they always have the safety net of the Dole which was ramped up and re-named to Job Seeker if you lost your full time job as a result of Covid-19 lockdown.

It was not the case with most part-timers, casuals and other people who didn't make up the "Un-employment" numbers. They had the least benefits if their gig or part-time/casual income dried up and I feel they were left in the dark with these schemes as they received nothing !

I think Kevin Rudd's stimulus package that supported all Australians without discriminating whether you formed part of the Employment number statistics or not during the GFC was much better designed to help the most vulnerable in our community. What do others and lindsayf think ?


----------



## Smurf1976 (30 May 2020)

aus_trader said:


> I don't know if people understand the irony but these people who got the benefits already had some buffer to get through the hard time:






aus_trader said:


> It was not the case with most part-timers, casuals and other people who didn't make up the "Un-employment" numbers. They had the least benefits if their gig or part-time/casual income dried up and I feel they were left in the dark with these schemes as they received nothing !




A cynic would say that those who are more likely to vote for the Coalition received a handout whilst those who probably vote Labor didn't.

I gave Labor some heavy criticism for that approach during the last election campaign and I'll equally criticise the Coalition for doing it now.

I'll also add that if the rate of payment on the dole is deemed unacceptable amidst a lockdown and needs to be doubled then it's rather hard to argue that it's enough during normal times when the unemployed have the additional costs of trying to actually find a job.


----------



## aus_trader (30 May 2020)

Smurf1976 said:


> A cynic would say that those who are more likely to vote for the Coalition received a handout whilst those who probably vote Labor didn't.



A good perspective. Yes it could be looked at that way in flexing their political muscle and the eligibility being back & white as to whether someone was eligible or left to fend on their own suggest they are looking after their voters only.


----------



## qldfrog (30 May 2020)

aus_trader said:


> A good perspective. Yes it could be looked at that way in flexing their political muscle and the eligibility being back & white as to whether someone was eligible or left to fend on their own suggest they are looking after their voters only.



I think jobkeeper was done to avoid company collapses and allow fora restart.
It is not people welfare, it is company welfare.
Without it, for companies..and i mean the bread and butter SMEs running this country, not the big corporations, ,: They would have had to sack employeesay all the due holiday leaves, extra redundancy payment.
If not collapsed by the extra cost, at restart,rehire retrain new people having lost their best employees and skills.it would have been an economic carnage.
So the government tried the save the economy first, which is not a leftist idea, but actually makes sense.
Was it hard for the casual and students etc left behind, oh yeah, but if the economy is left to restart, they have a chance to get a job again whereas otherwise, no one would be left to employ them
No perfect solution
Jobseeker was supposed to care for them.did it fail? I know about job keeper,not enough about job seeker


----------



## Humid (30 May 2020)

So business could spring back to no jobs no wage growth and no policies


----------



## Knobby22 (30 May 2020)

Humid said:


> So business could spring back to no jobs no wage growth and no policies



The effect is to retain jobs and support business. You can see the alternative overseas. 
Excellent article in today's Age showing how Christian Portman realised what he had to do after business people rang him in desperation. To keep jobs and business going he joined with the Unions to modify awards and develop a plan. This plan will be enhanced going forward.

We are still going to have a rough time but our political process is working.


----------



## Humid (30 May 2020)

Knobby22 said:


> The effect is to retain jobs and support business. You can see the alternative overseas.
> Excellent article in today's Age showing how Christian Portman realised what he had to do after business people rang him in desperation. To keep jobs and business going he joined with the Unions to modify awards and develop a plan. This plan will be enhanced going forward.
> 
> We are still going to have a rough time but our political process is working.




Yeah but can you tell me where we going before this?


----------



## qldfrog (30 May 2020)

Knobby22 said:


> The effect is to retain jobs and support business. You can see the alternative overseas.
> Excellent article in today's Age showing how Christian Portman realised what he had to do after business people rang him in desperation. To keep jobs and business going he joined with the Unions to modify awards and develop a plan. This plan will be enhanced going forward.
> 
> We are still going to have a rough time but our political process is working.



Great post, do you own a business?, great common sense and realistic view, like it !


----------



## Knobby22 (30 May 2020)

qldfrog said:


> Great post, do you own a business?, great common sense and realistic view, like it !



In one as an associate but not one of the directors.


----------



## aus_trader (30 May 2020)

qldfrog said:


> I think jobkeeper was done to avoid company collapses and allow fora restart.
> It is not people welfare, it is company welfare.
> Without it, for companies..and i mean the bread and butter SMEs running this country, not the big corporations, ,: They would have had to sack employeesay all the due holiday leaves, extra redundancy payment.
> If not collapsed by the extra cost, at restart,rehire retrain new people having lost their best employees and skills.it would have been an economic carnage.
> ...



I am OK with supporting full time workers keep their jobs with Job Keeper, otherwise the main engine will struggle. And we all will pay with future taxes etc whether you are working full time, part time or casual. So there is no discrimination when it comes to giving back to the Government.

I think there should have been some support for the people who are just keeping it together with less hours worked and who had their hours cut. All or nothing was unfair for those who didn't receive a cent.

I know people who missed out and felt gutted !

Kevin Rudd was a ledged. He could say "Sorry" when others couldn't and he could give a stimulus to all Australians, fair and square. It's sad the people chosen Prime Minister was thrown out of the Parliament by the internal crooks who plotted his fall.


----------



## qldfrog (30 May 2020)

aus_trader said:


> It's sad the people chosen Prime Minister was thrown out of the Parliament by the internal crooks who plotted his fall.



Indeed, be it Rudd or Malcolm, this should not happen.


----------



## aus_trader (31 May 2020)

qldfrog said:


> Indeed, be it Rudd or Malcolm, this should not happen.



Yes indeed, there would have been a bit more planning and checking the fairness of it before unleashing the biggest stimulus upon the Australian economy if they executed it. So I think people of Australia as a whole choose a prime minister that they want in power not what the party wants or what the political crooks want !


----------



## jbocker (6 June 2020)

Spoke with the brother, he is flat out supporting Vet health sample deliveries, the sister in law flat out with a developer (residential) who have just put ON two additional draftees. A couple of sons of friends in trades going really well.
Maybe people are spending their 'overseas holiday' monies AND their restaurant and pub monies on all the wall cracks they have been staring at during lock down.
Years gone by, I have a friend who went to fix a tile in the bathroom and ended up having a complete bathroom renovation done through a professional company. I daresay that HAS also happened in more than a few households over the last two months.

Going walk to the local corner pub with the Mrs, and I am expecting a line up outside.


----------



## aus_trader (6 June 2020)

A lot of us on these forums may not take up the stimulus since it's a pretty steep $150k to entry fee ! That's based on all the discussions I've been having with members.

But I think we ASF'ers represent a very small slice of the Aussie pie and my gut feeling is large percentage of the population will take it up, given the love affair with homes in the country.

No point fighting it, I decided to get some exposure to all that money being swashed around through the economy in Speculative Stock Portfolio with a stock purchase.


----------



## Dona Ferentes (6 June 2020)

aus_trader said:


> A lot of us on these forums may not take up the stimulus since it's a pretty steep $150k to entry fee ! That's based on all the discussions I've been having with members.
> 
> But I think we ASF'ers represent a very small slice of the Aussie pie and my gut feeling is large percentage of the population will take it up, given the love affair with homes in the country.



I think it's about being "shovel, or nail-gun, ready" (not getting a bureaucracy up to speed to allocate, with attendant process & delays) and also alignment with Lib 'values', individual choice and all that rather than KRudd consensus. But is there a huge amount of money on offer?? Plus, the lack of filter means more going to big cities; I'd rather some targeted 'decentralisation'. More bang for the buck, there.


----------



## wayneL (6 June 2020)

_Qui bono? Quis solvit?_


----------



## Dona Ferentes (6 June 2020)

wayneL said:


> _Qui bono?_



He's a singer in U2


----------



## wayneL (6 June 2020)

Dona Ferentes said:


> He's a singer in U2



”Bono" is a tw@t, not a Latin interrogative.

But, one may therefore ask the same question of him.


----------



## aus_trader (6 June 2020)

Dona Ferentes said:


> alignment with Lib 'values'



Couldn't agree more. It's certainly aimed at that.


----------



## sptrawler (6 June 2020)

Sounds like history being re written as we speak.


----------



## Smurf1976 (6 June 2020)

aus_trader said:


> But I think we ASF'ers represent a very small slice of the Aussie pie




A stock market forum with people who actually have real knowledge - by its very nature that's a niche thing. In a good way not a bad way certainly, but a niche thing nonetheless.


----------



## jbocker (7 June 2020)

Dona Ferentes said:


> I think it's about being "shovel, or nail-gun, ready" (not getting a bureaucracy up to speed to allocate, with attendant process & delays)...



Yes Agree. I think it is time to roll up the sleeves and simply get working, cast aside the political bull sheet and work with honour and pride.
Continue with the respect that has become something we have gladly learned to appreciate in these covid months. I feel somewhat happy or relieved (cant put a word to it) about Black Lives Matter it seems to fit in with the mood of acceptance (not the looting), ..and hopefully continues to a point where All Life Matters.
Whoa I am getting deep. And before anyone asks No I am not on drugs. But I did just have a great night out.


----------



## aus_trader (7 June 2020)

Smurf1976 said:


> A stock market forum with people who actually have real knowledge - by its very nature that's a niche thing. In a good way not a bad way certainly, but a niche thing nonetheless.



Totally agree. I also meant in a good way about a lot of us ASF members not taking up the homebuilder offer. Lot of us feel like it's a debt trap to walk into, given we already have mortgages up to our chest. No need to go deeper into debt up to the eye balls and complain we can't breathe thanks to that shiny new home extension or reno. I mean, we are not talking a small loan to add on, for most of us anyway.

Besides there is quite a few old timers here who has been around the block a few times in their life, so have a lot of experience to weigh up any schemes thrown at them.

But I feel a lot of younger homeowners and the vast majority of the general community who don't hang around these forums will walk straight into it.


----------



## moXJO (7 June 2020)

Town was packed all weekend. Went and had a pub lunch on Saturday. All the pubs in the area have completed renos. 
Bistro was packed. Grabbed a $13 steak and chips medium rare. True to form I got incinerated charcoal. Very rare finding a restaurant that can cook a steak, which is sad.
Probably expecting too much from a $13 meal.

Are we meant to be in recession yet?


----------



## moXJO (7 June 2020)

Actually was eating at a restaurant for lunch today, well more of a lunch desert. 
They had to keep turning away customers because of the limit. Groups of people as well.

Must be severely impacting their bottom line. Lockdown will have to be adjusted soon.


----------



## qldfrog (8 June 2020)

FWIW
Got 3 contacts last 6 days about potential project, 2 via past colleagues/project partner and one via LinkedIn.
1 Australia,2 o/s focus..but done mostly here
Only interested maybe in one but economy definitively restarting.


----------



## aus_trader (8 June 2020)

aus_trader said:


> But I feel a lot of younger homeowners and the vast majority of the general community who don't hang around these forums will walk straight into it.


----------



## wayneL (8 June 2020)

What I'm seeing this to sides to this economy. One side is definitely humming along. I just did something cheeky and put my prices up, nobody has batted an eyelid and I haven't even got time to respond to new enquiry.

But I was at one of the major Westfield centres Sunday arvo with the missus. It was grim, talking to the shop owners and restaurant owners (those that we're actually still open), they were in dire straits.

I can't help feeling that the economy is kind of feeling good on Lyrica and oxycodones, not really feeling the underlying structural damage at the moment, but once the prescription runs out the withdrawals are going to be horrendous.

Just my thoughts on the matter.


----------



## wayneL (8 June 2020)

aus_trader said:


> View attachment 104452



Many moons ago we used to take in troubled kids. Well we supported them they loved us and thought we were great. But without fail, once we started to withdraw unconditional support and teach them to actually stand on their own two feet, and make their way in the world, they didn't like us so much. Only one out of the seven we took in has ever kept in touch.

Scotty is going to have to keep splashing the cash around for at least another 2 years, therefore.


----------



## PZ99 (8 June 2020)

Last of the big spenders - literally.


----------



## Dona Ferentes (8 June 2020)

Beer's flowing again. Never been a better time, they say. (NSW at least; restrictions apply)


> For punters keen on a schooner over the long weekend, Smyth advocates supporting local independent brewers who have been hard hit by the coronavirus crisis.





> Mainstream lagers will be flowing too, however, with giant brewer Lion Nathan shipping 20,000 kegs to NSW venues in the past week.
> "We started anticipating more pubs would reopen about three weeks ago and cranked up our keg production," says Lion's national sales director Mark Powell. "Tooheys New and XXXX Gold especially, as they're staples of a pub lunch for many punters."



Powell says there has perhaps never been a better time to drink a schooner in NSW with so much _*fresh beer available and whistle-clean tap systems at pubs*_.
"A keg can sit at a venue for two or three weeks, but this new batch is coming straight off the line and into the hands of pub-goers..."


----------



## wayneL (8 June 2020)

Dona Ferentes said:


> Beer's flowing again. Never been a better time, they say. (NSW at least; restrictions apply)
> 
> Powell says there has perhaps never been a better time to drink a schooner in NSW with so much _*fresh beer available and whistle-clean tap systems at pubs*_.
> "A keg can sit at a venue for two or three weeks, but this new batch is coming straight off the line and into the hands of pub-goers..."




My local will not be reopening at this stage 


They're not bankrupt, they are going to be continuing to run their bottle shop. But the downside risk of reopening is too great they say, with the possibility of a second wave and being shut down again.

A real shame as it was a great family pub with good food and I could sit in there and have a punt and a few beers, the missus joining me later for a bloody good pub meal and a chat with the locals... Maybe a bit of karaoke if I got full enough.


----------



## Knobby22 (8 June 2020)

The pub near work reopened (cbd). We booked for Friday lunch 5 guys, only one other group 4 guys, a couple and one guy on his computer. Don't know if they will be open next week after seeing this turnout.


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## Dona Ferentes (8 June 2020)

Knobby22 said:


> The pub near work reopened (cbd). We booked for Friday lunch 5 guys, only one other group 4 guys, a couple and one guy on his computer. Don't know if they will be open next week after seeing this turnout.



yep, TGIFriday drinks would be the money maker, in the city.

I think its likely smaller intimate locales will rebound. The barns with carparks, probably not .... and the CBD locales reliant on the 'push'; I can only think it's a behaviour with a use-by date.


----------



## satanoperca (8 June 2020)

wayneL said:


> Many moons ago we used to take in troubled kids. Well we supported them they loved us and thought we were great. But without fail, once we started to withdraw unconditional support and teach them to actually stand on their own two feet, and make their way in the world, they didn't like us so much. Only one out of the seven we took in has ever kept in touch.
> 
> Scotty is going to have to keep splashing the cash around for at least another 2 years, therefore.




While one out of seven sounds like a terrible fail rate, my hat goes off to you and your family.
1st you had the balls to do it (help others even know the odds where against you), when many others would not.
2nd, that is not a bad success rate, while I can understand it might be disappointing, your family still managed to impact a single life, well done, be proud, and f--kd the rest (maybe a little hard).

Compassion and understanding in society is something that can be discussed, but few implement.


----------



## wayneL (9 June 2020)

Not really street-level stuff but a bit about the disconnect between wall Street and main Street


----------



## SirRumpole (9 June 2020)

I went to K-Mart today and I've never seen so many empty shelves.

Appliances, cookware, glassware, towels, linen basically cleaned out.

Was this all the pensioners with their $750 handouts or the unemployed with jobkeeper allowance and time on their hands ?

Whatever, if it was stimulus spending its certainly worked, for now.


----------



## macca (9 June 2020)

SirRumpole said:


> I went to K-Mart today and I've never seen so many empty shelves.
> 
> Appliances, cookware, glassware, towels, linen basically cleaned out.
> 
> ...




There was an article in the paper about lack of supply from China due to CV19


----------



## wayneL (9 June 2020)

macca said:


> There was an article in the paper about lack of supply from China due to CV19



In my trade we can make horseshoes from bar stock, or  buy pre-manufactured shoes, largely from China.

The economics dictate that pre manufactured shoes are more profitable. $15 a set, versus about  $5 worth of material plus three quarters of an hour of labour plus tool cost and replacement... is a no brainer.

Blacksmithing skills certainly do come in handy because pre-manufactured shoes are in short supply. it means that I have come to appreciate those skills that I have built up.

The point being is that total reliance on overseas supply is as really bad idea. Those without the skills are out of business.

My situation is a microscopic example, but an exemplar of the broader situation


----------



## qldfrog (9 June 2020)

SirRumpole said:


> I went to K-Mart today and I've never seen so many empty shelves.
> 
> Appliances, cookware, glassware, towels, linen basically cleaned out.
> 
> ...



As Macca said, no container from China, I had to buy a new dishwasher a month ago, and we did run to ensure we could get one, no price bargaining: you get this one or you pay 100$ less next door, and join the waiting list...


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## sptrawler (10 June 2020)

SirRumpole said:


> I went to K-Mart today and I've never seen so many empty shelves.
> Appliances, cookware, glassware, towels, linen basically cleaned out.
> Was this all the pensioners with their $750 handouts or the unemployed with jobkeeper allowance and time on their hands ?
> Whatever, if it was stimulus spending its certainly worked, for now.



We went over to the closest major shopping center today, it is the first week that most of the shops are open, unbelievable amount of shoppers and all carrying bags of bought articles.
This blip to the economy may be short lived, as we said earlier, it looks as if the Government has taken the majority of the financial hit not the business sector.
The next reporting season, in a couple of months, will paint a better picture IMO.


----------



## jbocker (10 June 2020)

qldfrog said:


> As Macca said, no container from China, I had to buy a new dishwasher a month ago, and we did run to ensure we could get one, no price bargaining: you get this one or you pay 100$ less next door, and join the waiting list...



There is plenty of local solutions.. My favourite is the twin cycle on the left.


----------



## macca (10 June 2020)

jbocker said:


> There is plenty of local solutions.. My favourite is the twin cycle on the left.
> 
> View attachment 104583




But when there is no kitty litter etc who is going to clean up the doggy doos


----------



## frugal.rock (10 June 2020)

Just press the button on top when they forget


----------



## tinhat (11 June 2020)

sptrawler said:


> We went over to the closest major shopping center today, it is the first week that most of the shops are open, unbelievable amount of shoppers and all carrying bags of bought articles.
> This blip to the economy may be short lived, as we said earlier, it looks as if the Government has taken the majority of the financial hit not the business sector.
> The next reporting season, in a couple of months, will paint a better picture IMO.




The show is not over in my humble opinion.


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## basilio (19 June 2020)

Sobering analysis on the current "unemployment figures" .  Basically  not worth the pixels  they written on.
The numbers on Job Keeper as well as the sheer number of businesses still not running is dwarfing the official numbers.

In terms of where the economy is going it is not good news. The flash point will be September when the Government intends to remove much of the current financial and other support from the economy. 

*Corrupted unemployment number obscures more than it reveals*
https://www.abc.net.au/news/2020-06...ll-mask-the-true-scale-of-job-losses/12370940


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## frugal.rock (19 June 2020)

And that's just Aus. 
Surely the US and China true figures are worse than ours...?
Tip of the iceberg IMHO.

F.Rock


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## moXJO (20 June 2020)

Can't get a lot of stuff still. Feels like Australia in the 80s. Business is closing earlier in the afternoon as well.

Apparently depression is up and crisis lines are running hot.


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## Smurf1976 (20 June 2020)

moXJO said:


> Can't get a lot of stuff still.



Anything specific?

I noticed last time I went to Bunnings that the shelves are stocked as such but there are individual products which aren't available or where the range of brands, sizes etc is greatly diminished.


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## over9k (20 June 2020)

Bunnings is going gangbusters because people are using the time to do stuff they haven't had time to do. 

I rebuild engines as a side thing/to keep myself sane (more of a hobby job than anything) and after not selling a single one in over a month I then sold 5 in a week once coronavirus hit as everyone now have the time to get around to their projects.


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## moXJO (20 June 2020)

Smurf1976 said:


> Anything specific?
> 
> I noticed last time I went to Bunnings that the shelves are stocked as such but there are individual products which aren't available or where the range of brands, sizes etc is greatly diminished.



High end specific products mainly.

 Anything health related.

US products.

Digital.

Hard getting stuff in.


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## jbocker (29 June 2020)

In the west.
Pubs are opening right up now and the fighting in the streets has returned.
Seems like things are getting back to normal.

I don't see much sledging of the Victorians, 'second wave'. Nor what is the real cause. Surprised no-one has blamed branch stacking.


----------



## over9k (29 June 2020)

The meltdown today is in response to the U.S meltdown on friday + the victorian number spike. It'll pass and aus will have a travel bubble until vic gets itself under control. Then there's seasonality for the southern hemisphere. You should have had your lasers charged ready to buy.


----------



## jbocker (29 June 2020)

jbocker said:


> I don't see much sledging of the Victorians, 'second wave'.



Well its is starting, in the area that we all looked for as a proof of concept. (apology: Not exactly street level)
 Thursday night's AFL clash between West Coast and Richmond has been officially postponed, as the Queensland government imposes severe quarantine restrictions on any team who confronts Melbourne opposition.


----------



## sptrawler (8 July 2020)

Well today, I had to be home for the delivery of the daughters 65" android clogan T.V.
So when I was helping the young Estonian delivery guy to carry it in, I did what all Aussies do and said how are you liking Australia.
He said , great country, great climate, I love it.
So I asked what differences do you notice between Estonia and Australia, he said people who are poor work hard then they get wealthy, then they get lazy then they get poor, then they work hard and they get wealthy again and the circle completes.
I thought that was priceless.


----------



## Dona Ferentes (8 July 2020)

Oh yeah. Too true. And long may we have such flexibility. 

You can lead a horse to water, but you can't make it think.


----------



## jbocker (9 July 2020)

Funeral today 12.30pm. Lots of people lots of hugs, the family appreciated having all the support.
I was glad they didn't have suffer the farewell a couple of  months ago with only 5 in attendance.

There was only 1 other funeral that I noticed while I was there. Usually they run two abreast. Almost no cars in carpark just after midday. I put it down to coincidence, it being quiet. 
Traffic on the streets was quite heavy every where was busy.
Went to a restaurant on the way home 6.30pm. Chockers. Second restaurant managed to get a table for two. Not bad for a Wednesday night. Service was very good and keen.


----------



## qldfrog (9 July 2020)

sptrawler said:


> Well today, I had to be home for the delivery of the daughters 65" android clogan T.V.
> So when I was helping the young Estonian delivery guy to carry it in, I did what all Aussies do and said how are you liking Australia.
> He said , great country, great climate, I love it.
> So I asked what differences do you notice between Estonia and Australia, he said people who are poor work hard then they get wealthy, then they get lazy then they get poor, then they work hard and they get wealthy again and the circle completes.
> I thought that was priceless.



I assume he meant as a society..it is true as long as when lazy, you do not make it impossible to work hard again: welfare state,law and regulations,ndis,parasiting...
Then it becomes Greece France


----------



## basilio (9 July 2020)

Dona Ferentes said:


> Oh yeah. Too true. And long may we have such flexibility.
> 
> You can lead a horse to water, but you can't make it think.




I think horses think exceptionally well without our having to make them think.


----------



## moXJO (10 July 2020)

Building suppliers are running flat out. The ones I talked to can't keep up with demand.


----------



## jbocker (10 July 2020)

basilio said:


> I think horses think exceptionally well without our having to make them think.



I have chatted a few old mares in my day and they MADE ME think I better get a drink.


----------



## aus_trader (10 July 2020)

moXJO said:


> Building suppliers are running flat out. The ones I talked to can't keep up with demand.



OK good to know the intel at street level. I am not seeing the demand reflected in stock prices yet but will be watching closely...


----------



## moXJO (13 July 2020)

florist I was talking to can't keep up with demand. They also can't get certain flowers as they come from overseas.

Massage therapist has tripled their workload and can't keep up.


----------



## wabullfrog (13 July 2020)

Local Italian restaurant did surprisingly well with takeaways & now WA has opened up a lot weeknights are at close to summer holiday levels. This is for a town on the South Coast so Winter is generally quieter. The owner says it's locals that would normally head overseas or spend the Winter touring Northern Australia staying local driving the business.


----------



## wayneL (13 July 2020)

moXJO said:


> florist I was talking to can't keep up with demand. They also can't get certain flowers as they come from overseas.
> 
> Massage therapist has tripled their workload and can't keep up.



It's so confusing.

I'm busy as ever and 80% of my clients either no effect or doing better. That might be a function of the type of people I have.

The other 20% are doing very poorly businesswise (but have heaps of savings).


----------



## moXJO (13 July 2020)

wayneL said:


> It's so confusing.
> 
> I'm busy as ever and 80% of my clients either no effect or doing better. That might be a function of the type of people I have.
> 
> The other 20% are doing very poorly businesswise (but have heaps of savings).



Everyone I'm talking to at the moment is booming. I've spent a bit of money on updating some stuff.

It's a great time for entrepreneurs as well. Some guys out there making big money.


----------



## Macquack (23 July 2020)

moXJO said:


> It's a great time for entrepreneurs as well. Some guys out there making big money.



I know a few businesses that have won the lottery by fudging their books, employing their workers as usual and pocketing the job keeper. 

I would not call them "entrepreneurs", they are just scamming the system.


----------



## jbocker (23 July 2020)

Macquack said:


> I know a few businesses that have won the lottery by fudging their books, employing their workers as usual and pocketing the job keeper.
> 
> I would not call them "entrepreneurs", they are just scamming the system.



Dob them in.


----------



## sptrawler (23 July 2020)

From what I've heard, it is happening both ways, workers and employers.
I bet the ATO will have a field day.


----------



## Chronos-Plutus (23 July 2020)

jbocker said:


> Dob them in.




Government will run an algorithm to back test and data integrate between ATO and Centrelink for businesses and individuals. They will get caught, it is just a matter of time.

In saying this; the Liberals will have to review the JobKeeper and JobSeeker trimming that they have announced because the state of the economy may not be ready for the trimming.


----------



## over9k (23 July 2020)

The economy always picks up over summer - it's when things drop again later into next year that we should be worried.


----------



## Smurf1976 (23 July 2020)

wayneL said:


> I'm busy as ever and 80% of my clients either no effect or doing better. That might be a function of the type of people I have.
> 
> The other 20% are doing very poorly businesswise




You can't name them obviously but is there a pattern in terms of what sort of business the 20% are in versus the 80%?

I'm assuming the 20% are in tourism or stuff like that?


----------



## wayneL (23 July 2020)

Smurf1976 said:


> You can't name them obviously but is there a pattern in terms of what sort of business the 20% are in versus the 80%?
> 
> I'm assuming the 20% are in tourism or stuff like that?



Yes it would be as you would expect, although I don't have anyone in the tourism industry, they are mainly in the hospitality, restaurants, gym owners and whatnot.

My biggest account is a riding for the disabled establishment, owned by a very large non-profit organisation and they are doing it really tough as far as cashflow is concerned, but the underlying organisation is cashed up enough to keep things going.


----------



## qldfrog (23 July 2020)

Let's be honest we are now applying a quasi worldwide universal income
Minimum income paid to everyone whether you work or not.
ideologically a nightmare for me and a path to societal oblivion but i take it and will not be the only sucker not to.


----------



## SirRumpole (24 July 2020)

qldfrog said:


> ideologically a nightmare for me and a path to societal oblivion




The concept of "no work no pay" is receding into the background a bit as work becomes less secure and more of it is done by machines.

The pragmatic point of view is that without consumption you don't have an economy, machines and software don't buy goods and services and so you have to have a way of keeping money circulating and a universal basic income is one such way.

Ideology is going to have to be sacrificed quite a bit in the next decades if the world economy is not to suffer a huge recession in my view.


----------



## qldfrog (24 July 2020)

SirRumpole said:


> The concept of "no work no pay" is receding into the background a bit as work becomes less secure and more of it is done by machines.
> 
> The pragmatic point of view is that without consumption you don't have an economy, machines and software don't buy goods and services and so you have to have a way of keeping money circulating and a universal basic income is one such way.
> 
> Ideology is going to have to be sacrificed quite a bit in the next decades if the world economy is not to suffer a huge recession in my view.



You are right, the issue is 
 is avoiding a huge recession the ultimate goal?..all similar to the covid dilemma actually.
We want to avoid shocks and are condemned to a slow death, for covid ultimately more deaths and a destroyed economy, for the GFC and ongoing kicking of the can, a societal oblivion and death of the western civilization.
Without highjacking the thread, i will take my personal example.
From China startup , world patents and bringing tech dollars back from China to jobkeeper
.business dead due to governments..note the plural..decision 
I can choose to either leave Australia altogether..for China...no thanks or "retire" /adapt.
Well me being me, i am on another project but it is a non productive one, one of the feel good one, no big $ expected,, no export, no IP  patent or  productivity increase just sucking at the teats of welfare for the good of disabled people .admirable maybe, but not nation building or economy strengthening.

I visit a local chamber of Commerce, plenty of good people, all do good , low footprint, inclusion,,first nation, community spirit and recycling..but not a cent of exporting or even local production: who is to pay for NDIS when the mines are empty?
Go to the village at 10 mid week, no place to park..a great attraction park and leisure center we are now

Where is sustainability in a nation when all the money come from selling wheat, or iron ore/coal
So at the street level,I moved from bringing in export dollars to being locked in a gilted jail, toying around to do good financed by the taxes I used to pay and playing with trading systems while hardly paying taxes

Suits my stage of life but had I been 20y younger, i would have jumped in the first plane out.how many are/will be like me ?
Without bragging, i brought in export dollars to this country and paid A LOT in taxes, not recycle money.that stage is over and replaced by coffee drinking economy.
How long can this be sustained?


----------



## wayneL (24 July 2020)

qldfrog said:


> You are right, the issue is
> is avoiding a huge recession the ultimate goal?..all similar to the covid dilemma actually.
> We want to avoid shocks and are condemned to a slow death, for covid ultimately more deaths and a destroyed economy, for the GFC and ongoing kicking of the can, a societal oblivion and death of the western civilization.
> Without highjacking the thread, i will take my personal example.
> ...



EXACTLY!!!

MMT/UBI encourages non-production in a big way. as we all know there are businesses that are struggling to get their workers to come back to work because the wicket is too good, collecting the _ipso facto _UBI at the moment. Some of my own clients (hospitality workers) have openly told me it's not worth them going back to work at the moment.

They can now swan around riding their horses any time of the day or night while their bosses struggle to make ends meet and get staff.

Under full blown MMT it will be worse.

When I watched Idiocracy, I thought it was prophetic, but not in my lifetime. Yet here we are.


----------



## SirRumpole (24 July 2020)

qldfrog said:


> You are right, the issue is
> is avoiding a huge recession the ultimate goal?..all similar to the covid dilemma actually.
> We want to avoid shocks and are condemned to a slow death, for covid ultimately more deaths and a destroyed economy, for the GFC and ongoing kicking of the can, a societal oblivion and death of the western civilization.
> Without highjacking the thread, i will take my personal example.
> ...




A BASIC income only provides for the basics.

That won't be enough for the go getters who will still strive for the extra cash and probably will have to pay less employees more money each, so the overall pay bill will be about the same.

There will be more reliance on consumption taxes and less on income taxes, so the incentive to work and earn income will still be there.


----------



## Chronos-Plutus (24 July 2020)

wayneL said:


> EXACTLY!!!
> 
> MMT/UBI encourages non-production in a big way. as we all know there are businesses that are struggling to get their workers to come back to work because the wicket is too good, collecting the _ipso facto _UBI at the moment. Some of my own clients (hospitality workers) have openly told me it's not worth them going back to work at the moment.
> 
> ...




There aren't that many jobs out there. A few small businesses are hardly representative of the entire business community. NSW are re-imposing COVID restrictions for hospitality businesses.

The Liberals will have to review the JobKeeper and JobSeeker trimming before it comes into effect. Otherwise we may see looting and crime on the streets; if people can't provide for their children.


----------



## qldfrog (24 July 2020)

SirRumpole said:


> A BASIC income only provides for the basics.
> 
> That won't be enough for the go getters who will still strive for the extra cash and probably will have to pay less employees more money each, so the overall pay bill will be about the same.
> 
> There will be more reliance on consumption taxes and less on income taxes, so the incentive to work and earn income will still be there.



Do you really believe that second paragraph? You adapt to the environment, the real go and getters will take planes out, the half bake will do reno or work on the side until such time as they are brought in line and stop bothering.
Real hard work is hard and painfull.you do not do it for pleasure or crumbles


----------



## Chronos-Plutus (24 July 2020)

If I was Scomo; I would be pushing for all the domestic borders to remain welded shut; then trim the JobKeeper and JobSeeker according to each state's COVID restrictions. So WA, SA, NT, QLD and TAS will have the JobKeeper and JobSeeker trimmed; VIC, ACT and NSW will have the current JobKeeper and JobSeeker untouched until COVID is under control.

The domestic borders can open again once all the states have COVID under control.


----------



## SirRumpole (24 July 2020)

qldfrog said:


> Do you really believe that second paragraph? You adapt to the environment, the real go and getters will take planes out, the half bake will do reno or work on the side until such time as they are brought in line and stop bothering.




Business owners will be encouraged by the fact that the consumers have money to spend on their products. Lets face it, work is becoming more casual , part time and insecure. That doesn't encourage people to spend as freely as they otherwise would. That is bad for business as well as consumers.


----------



## qldfrog (24 July 2020)

SirRumpole said:


> Business owners will be encouraged by the fact that the consumers have money to spend on their products. Lets face it, work is becoming more casual , part time and insecure. That doesn't encourage people to spend as freely as they otherwise would. That is bad for business as well as consumers.



Have you ever own a business SirRumpole? Do not take that as an attack, this is not the intent,  but what is your image of owning a business in 2020? 
Do you have any idea of the actual struggle in term of ATO compliance, funding, compliances not even discussing the actual business.And no, you can not dump it on an accountant that easily
Why would anyone bother here?


----------



## Chronos-Plutus (24 July 2020)

qldfrog said:


> Have you ever own a business SirRumpole? Do not take that as an attack, this is not the intent,  but what is your image of owning a business in 2020?
> Do you have any idea of the actual struggle in term of ATO compliance, funding, compliances not even discussing the actual business.And no, you can not dump it on an accountant that easily
> Why would anyone bother here?




We will see what Josh has to say today.

I think we should be reducing company and individual income taxes dramatically; then raise GST with exceptions on rent, food and energy. This will alter government revenue streams which will essentially tax consumers that can afford it.


----------



## SirRumpole (24 July 2020)

qldfrog said:


> Have you ever own a business SirRumpole? Do not take that as an attack, this is not the intent,  but what is your image of owning a business in 2020?
> Do you have any idea of the actual struggle in term of ATO compliance, funding, compliances not even discussing the actual business.And no, you can not dump it on an accountant that easily
> Why would anyone bother here?




All those are separate issues to UBI, but you are correct, they should be addressed.


----------



## SirRumpole (24 July 2020)

Chronos-Plutus said:


> We will see what Josh has to say today.
> 
> I think we should be reducing company and individual income taxes dramatically; then raise GST with exceptions on rent, food and energy. This will alter government revenue streams which will essentially tax consumers that can afford it.




A resource export tax would also be a tax that consumers can afford.

5% at least on LNG, iron ore , coal, gold.


----------



## Chronos-Plutus (24 July 2020)

SirRumpole said:


> A resource export tax would also be a tax that consumers can afford.
> 
> 5% at least on LNG, iron ore , coal, gold.




It will be difficult to get the miners on board with a resource tax; however they might be willing to consider a temporary resource tax to get our nation out of debt. Also if company income taxes are reduced, the miners might be more willing to negotiate on a temporary resource tax.


----------



## SirRumpole (24 July 2020)

Chronos-Plutus said:


> It will be difficult to get the miners on board with a resource tax; however they might be willing to consider a temporary resource tax to get our nation out of debt.




By the time we get out of debt the tax would be permanent anyway.


----------



## Chronos-Plutus (24 July 2020)

SirRumpole said:


> By the time we get out of debt the tax would be permanent anyway.




Apparently PWC have forecast today that it will be around the year 2060.


----------



## Garpal Gumnut (24 July 2020)

Chronos-Plutus said:


> It will be difficult to get the miners on board with a resource tax; however they might be willing to consider a temporary resource tax to get our nation out of debt. Also if company income taxes are reduced, the miners might be more willing to negotiate on a temporary resource tax.



It will not get up taxing resources or companies. 

When the rest of the country has been investing over the last ten years in film flam industries and indulging snowflake sectors in Sydney and Melbourne, the rest of the country has been doing what Australia is good at, digging. 

There is no way in the wide world that Resources Australia will tolerate a tax.

Just tax all houses worth over $750,000, a capital tax of 20% and enable our youth to get a toe on to the house ownership ladder post-Covid. 

These effin grey nomads living off over priced real estate give me the sh**s.

gg


----------



## SirRumpole (24 July 2020)

Garpal Gumnut said:


> There is no way in the wide world that Resources Australia will tolerate a tax.




What would they do about it ? 

Stop digging ?


----------



## Garpal Gumnut (24 July 2020)

SirRumpole said:


> What would they do about it ?
> 
> Stop digging ?



They would enact a KevDed strategy. 

If it worked against that muppet Rudd it would certainly work against Morrison and his Ship of Fools. 

gg


----------



## sptrawler (28 July 2020)

At last the ridiculous situation we have got our manufacturing into, is starting to get mentioned in the media.

https://www.theage.com.au/politics/...cturing-self-sufficiency-20200727-p55fsm.html
From the article:
Australia ranks last for manufacturing self-sufficiency among its global peers, producing goods worth only about 70 per cent of the amount it consumes.

A report by think tank the Australia Institute found a third of Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development member countries used more than they made. Australia was the least self-sufficient, while Ireland and Germany topped the list.


----------



## sptrawler (29 July 2020)

This article explains our predicament well, but as usual doesn't explain how to fix it, Australia's standard of living and welfare system has improved hugely since the 1960's.
But Australia's first world economy which funded it, has slowly slid down the slope since the 1970's, how we push it back up the slope without pain is very difficult.
What has to be remembered is, we signed the Lima agreement and reduced tarrifs etc, that got us here.IMO
https://www.abc.net.au/news/2020-07...ust-improve-lives-of-all-australians/12493668
From the article, pertinent points IMO:
_**The reasons we have arrived here*.
Deregulation of the financial system and vast parts of the economy, along with the removal of trade barriers, has boosted global economic growth and, in the space of little more than one generation, transformed once-impoverished nations, particularly throughout Asia, into economic powerhouses.
But economics, like many things in life, is all about balance.
Once that delicate equilibrium shifts too far from the centre, a rapid and violent reversal often takes place, a phenomenon we now are witnessing in the political sphere across the developed world.
While Australia remains a far more egalitarian society, several million, through no fault of their own, suddenly have found themselves being supported by the state for the first time.

**Where we are*.
Waning consumption and stagnating retail sales forced the Reserve Bank to cut interest rates three times last year.
Add in an overreliance on a handful of raw materials to mainly one market, China, as a source of export income and we were vulnerable to an economic shock.
Also missing are the strikes and industrial disputes that accompanied that militant period and disrupted business and the economy.
The idea the Australian workforce is inflexible is a misrepresentation.
Around a quarter of Australian workers are casuals. Business lobby groups argue that has been the case for 25 years and they're right.
But go back a little further, to the early 1980s, and only 13 per cent of the workforce was casual.
*
*How do we get back to where we started pre the Lima agreement and deregulation*?
Globalisation and trade liberalisation transferred entire industries from developed nations into the growth economies of Asia and particularly China.
Workers ended up with a much lower share of the national income, as this graph from the Reserve Bank shows.
That share has been in decline since the 1970s as wages have undershot the growth in profits.
But improved technology and firms' ability to now employ workers in other countries at much lower rates have also had an impact, while in Australia the strong lift in population and working-age migrants has added to the workforce and lifted competition for labour_.
*
*So how do we get back to where we started?????????????????
(my bolds in the above text)*
Increase wages?
increase taxes?
Apply tarrifs to companies that don't bring manufacturing back.
Subsidies manufacturing?
Devalue our currency, so that our wages and construction costs are similar to competing Countries and our home produced product is as cheap as the imported?


----------



## jbocker (30 July 2020)

Mate had some tickets to the footy tomorrow night Optus 3.30pm start Hawthorn v Carlton, and cannot go, he made several phone calls and could not give them away! He couldn't believe it, plenty would have liked to go but were too busy at work to knock off early. That's a good sign I suppose. I am sure he has found someone by now. I cannot go, I am going to a retirement of one my old staff.


----------



## moXJO (30 July 2020)

Little bit of a slowdown this week from various quarters.


----------



## Smurf1976 (31 July 2020)

Chronos-Plutus said:


> It will be difficult to get the miners on board with a resource tax; however they might be willing to consider a temporary resource tax to get our nation out of debt. Also if company income taxes are reduced, the miners might be more willing to negotiate on a temporary resource tax.



Another way is give them a means to avoid it.

Eg whatever tax is applied to iron ore exports, make it a lower rate if the ore is pelletized and make it zero if it's fed into a steelworks. 

Whilst the processing won't directly pay taxes, the people it employs and the contractors and so on certainly will and the whole thing creates far more economic activity than simply loading the ore onto ships.


----------



## cutz (24 September 2020)

Smurf1976 said:


> Perhaps this discussion should be in another thread so as to not hijack this one but for the record, I've held the same view since the 1990's.
> 
> Globalisation will crash and burn once the corporate office workers lose their jobs. That's the point where they'll wish they'd stood with the factory workers as they were marched out the door a generation earlier.
> 
> ...




Well said Smurf1976 , also my thoughts...


----------



## over9k (24 September 2020)

Smurf - Search "peter zeihan" on youtube, and then spend a day watching his presentations in chronological order. 

Globalisation is absolutely, completely, done.


----------



## Garpal Gumnut (24 September 2020)

Kmart was chockas today. My Japanese tailor Uno Anko has a shop there and I needed measuring for a new Safari Suit before summer hits. If WES drops in the Coming Calamity I'll be adding.

gg


----------



## moXJO (9 November 2020)

A few houses selling slower than usual round my way. About 4 at a month on market.
one good property sold pretty fast though. About 2 weeks on before the sold sign went up.

Things have visibly slowed down. I know that the job keeper was cut for this quarter to many businesses that couldn't show a reduction. It may have been smarter keeping it through till Christmas.  But perhaps it will bounce back with the election done.


----------



## sptrawler (9 November 2020)

moXJO said:


> A few houses selling slower than usual round my way. About 4 at a month on market.
> one good property sold pretty fast though. About 2 weeks on before the sold sign went up.
> 
> Things have visibly slowed down. I know that the job keeper was cut for this quarter to many businesses that couldn't show a reduction. It may have been smarter keeping it through till Christmas.  But perhaps it will bounce back with the election done.



In W.A housing is moving again, after being in the doldrums for the last 5 years, the State and Federal building stimulus seems to be creating a lot of interest. From memory the building contracts have to be signed by year end, so it will be interesting to see if the momentum continues in the new year.
Generally there still seems to be a lot of consumer spending going on in the shops, I wonder if the general depressive aura around the virus, the lockdowns, the negative press, the constant 24hour media bad news cycle, isn't making people just say "sod it i may as well spend it now, things could be a whole lot worse tomorrow".
I really think this whole episode, has had a dramatic damping effect on people's enthusiasm and confidence and this may be making people assess their long term goals and what really is important.
Just my thoughts.


----------



## wayneL (10 November 2020)

Mrs and I will will be moving back to WA soon to spend our dotage reminiscing about the "Glory Days", and spending copious amounts of cash at West Leederville (etc) and regular pilgrimages to Margaret River  for the wine and hemp clothing we will never wear...

... just so long as McGowan doesn't copycat Mao Tse Dan.

Of course we will want to rent for a while as we re-reconnoitre the property market.

Couldn't have picked a worse time TBH. Apparently there are 20+ apps per property ATM.

...but... I suppose we could always sleep under The Causeway?


----------



## Smurf1976 (10 November 2020)

sptrawler said:


> I wonder if the general depressive aura around the virus, the lockdowns, the negative press, the constant 24hour media bad news cycle, isn't making people just say "sod it i may as well spend it now, things could be a whole lot worse tomorrow".



The reality that even someone who really does have many $ millions can’t actually buy things that ordinary people could readily buy 12 months ago would rationally prompt a “live for today” mindset.

The willingness of governments to underwrite pretty much everything likewise removes rational reasons for consumers to plan for the future.


----------



## sptrawler (10 November 2020)

wayneL said:


> Mrs and I will will be moving back to WA soon to spend our dotage reminiscing about the "Glory Days", and spending copious amounts of cash at West Leederville (etc) and regular pilgrimages to Margaret River  for the wine and hemp clothing we will never wear...
> 
> ... just so long as McGowan doesn't copycat Mao Tse Dan.
> 
> ...



There are worse places to live than W.A wayne lol, it will depend on where you want to buy of course, but there are some terrific buying opportunities around and by the sound of prices over East anywhere in W.A will be cheaper. 😂


----------



## wayneL (10 November 2020)

sptrawler said:


> There are worse places to live than W.A wayne lol, it will depend on where you want to buy of course, but there are some terrific buying opportunities around and by the sound of prices over East anywhere in W.A will be cheaper. 😂



Well, the sort of digs that we're interested in, doesn't seem that different to over here in banana land.... Mrs has her heart set on a few acres in Brigadoon or thereabouts.

Can't see many bargains there TBH, but good spot for both our businesses and close enough to the outlaws.

I just don't know if I can deal with the pretension of the folks around there


----------



## sptrawler (10 November 2020)

wayneL said:


> Well, the sort of digs that we're interested in, doesn't seem that different to over here in banana land.... Mrs has her heart set on a few acres in Brigadoon or thereabouts.
> 
> Can't see many bargains there TBH, but good spot for both our businesses and close enough to the outlaws.
> 
> I just don't know if I can deal with the pretension of the folks around there



Yes Brigadoon, North of Perth + horsey people = expensive.


----------



## wayneL (10 November 2020)

sptrawler said:


> Yes Brigadoon, North of Perth + horsey people = expensive.



Trivia and off topic, but I was friends with Sue Bond at the time Bondie was developing all that area, and boy do I have some interesting stories about Brigadoon!


----------



## moXJO (11 November 2020)

Party supply shops and birthday cake shops are the latest victims. A couple have closed down over the last 2 months.

Talking to my son and he told me they have to sit at pubs and clubs. No walking around. So no mingling or meeting anyone new. Be interesting to see the repercussions of all this in a few years time.


----------



## moXJO (16 November 2020)

Payments are slowing out again. People are telling me people are delaying payments as long as possible.


----------



## over9k (16 November 2020)

Should be good for afterpay et al.


----------



## wayneL (16 November 2020)

Just my little update in my area of observation... Brisbane Western suburbs up through Samford valley and sometimes at to Northern and far western suburbs, things just seem to be normal.

No masks and apart from people anti-social distancing a bit, you wouldn't know there was any sort of purported pandemic going on.

The only hint is when my beloved and I go into a restaurant or cafe we have to sign in with a fake identity  

It's a joke folks


----------



## satanoperca (16 November 2020)

Why shouldn't things me great in this wonderful country, lowest interest rates in history (screw savers and pensioners - they were meant to be knocked off by the virus anyway) and the RBA flooding liquidity back into the markets for the banks to get everyone further into debt.
Also the Fed and states throwing enough money at the virus, that the next 3 generations of Aussies could never pay it off.

Sunshine and lollipops


----------



## wayneL (16 November 2020)

satanoperca said:


> Why shouldn't things me great in this wonderful country, lowest interest rates in history (screw savers and pensioners - they were meant to be knocked off by the virus anyway) and the RBA flooding liquidity back into the markets for the banks to get everyone further into debt.
> Also the Fed and states throwing enough money at the virus, that the next 3 generations of Aussies could never pay it off.
> 
> Sunshine and lollipops





As topical, I will draw attention to my most recent post in the long volatility thread... Or rather the podcast contained therein.

I think Chris Cole has some interesting comment regarding this.


----------



## satanoperca (16 November 2020)

wayneL said:


> As topical, I will draw attention to my most recent post in the long volatility thread... Or rather the podcast contained therein.
> 
> I think Chris Cole has some interesting comment regarding this.



Can you link to it please?


----------



## wayneL (16 November 2020)

satanoperca said:


> Can you link to it please?


----------



## satanoperca (16 November 2020)

Wayne I am scared after listening to that podcast.

And I am only 30minutes in.

@wayneL 😨😨😨😨😨😨


----------



## satanoperca (16 November 2020)

Wayne is this the same as a horse that has a broken leg, do you need to put it down and start again?


----------



## wayneL (16 November 2020)

satanoperca said:


> Wayne is this the same as a horse that has a broken leg, do you need to put it down and start again?



Interestingly, there are parallels.

Between the vet and myself, we try to kick the can down the road, trying to get a few more months or years out of the poor beast, trying to reduce suffering in the meantime.

Usually not a break, but often osteitis, myelitis, or desmitis.

The result is inevitable, retirement or lead supplementation.

Likewise, the monetist version of the world economy is running on Finnadyne and methyl sulphonyl methane, just waiting for an opportune moment to catestrophically break the f*** down at the worst possible moment.


----------



## SirRumpole (10 February 2021)

Help the economy, demand a pay rise !

Excellent article by Ian Verrender.









						Why you should demand a pay rise now
					

If you really want to do something patriotic this year, if you really want to help our economy recover from impacts of the pandemic, then you should demand a pay rise, writes Ian Verrender.




					www.abc.net.au


----------



## over9k (10 February 2021)

...wait, an ABC article, pointing to the very simple supply & demand effects of mass immigration? 

WHAT?!


----------



## SirRumpole (10 February 2021)

over9k said:


> ...wait, an ABC article, pointing to the very simple supply & demand effects of mass immigration?
> 
> WHAT?!



They are not all Leftists apparently.


----------



## over9k (10 February 2021)

doubt.jpg 


There's something going on behind the scenes. No question. Just a question of what.




If we start seeing basically any other articles from basically any other news sources talking about it then we'll have absolutely no doubt that there's fuckery afoot.


----------



## sptrawler (10 February 2021)

SirRumpole said:


> Help the economy, demand a pay rise !
> 
> Excellent article by Ian Verrender.
> 
> ...



It does make sense, the only down side he doesn't mention, it makes our manufactured goods even less competitive. 
Which brings us back to what we reckon, tariffs will have to be re introduced to support local products which will cost more, or else the slide will continue IMO.
There is no point in throwing more and more money at people, until it ends up like Indonesia where everyone is on 1,000 a day, but the 1,000 only buys them a can of Bintang.
At the end of the day inflation is good, but without an increase in productivity, it just devalues your buying power in reality it is just a sugar hit.
Just my opinion.


----------



## SirRumpole (10 February 2021)

sptrawler said:


> it makes our manufactured goods even less competitive.




What manufactured goods ?

As you say, if we want manufacturing back, tariffs will be needed. We simply can't compete with slave labour, and why should we ?

Places like China and India are the biggest markets in the world. If the workers there were paid enough so they could afford the goods they produce then they could be self sustaining and wouldn't need to flog stuff to the rest of the world.

At the moment there are a few people in these countries  making a lot of money from the working poor.

No level playing field there.


----------



## qldfrog (10 February 2021)

SirRumpole said:


> Help the economy, demand a pay rise !
> 
> Excellent article by Ian Verrender.
> 
> ...



We all know that inflation is the ONLY way to go for our leader, study the Reset for the official program, but people have to realise that inflation is the ultimate tool to screw the people, the savers ,the home owners less than the renters,
Your taxes will increase,your benefits decrease, it is an economic nuclear bomb but there is no alternative


----------



## over9k (10 February 2021)

Alternatively, they raise interest rates but print a bunch of cash and KO some of the debt with it, in doing so dropping the value of the AUD and solving the export problem. 

The only issue from there becomes cost of imports.


----------



## sptrawler (10 February 2021)

qldfrog said:


> We all know that inflation is the ONLY way to go for our leader, study the Reset for the official program, but people have to realise that inflation is the ultimate tool to screw the people, the savers ,the home owners less than the renters,
> Your taxes will increase,your benefits decrease, it is an economic nuclear bomb but there is no alternative






over9k said:


> Alternatively, they raise interest rates but print a bunch of cash and KO some of the debt with it, in doing so dropping the value of the AUD and solving the export problem.
> 
> The only issue from there becomes cost of imports.



@over9k your alternative isn't an alternative, it is a follow on after the frogs quote.  As day follows night once wages take off, prices take take off and interest rates take off, welfare takes off, people can afford bigger loans = sum gain nothing, just sounds better that everyone is getting more money. 
In reality we aren't producing more, so our dollar devalues which makes our resources cheaper and as you say everything the worker buys that is imported becomes dearer.


----------



## over9k (10 February 2021)

mm i was speaking from the perspective of debt mostly.


----------



## againsthegrain (10 February 2021)

over9k said:


> Alternatively, they raise interest rates but print a bunch of cash and KO some of the debt with it, in doing so dropping the value of the AUD and solving the export problem.
> 
> The only issue from there becomes cost of imports.




They wouldn't dare, wasn't that our conclusion on the housing thread?


----------



## sptrawler (10 February 2021)

over9k said:


> mm i was speaking from the perspective of debt mostly.



They wont raise interest rates until inflation takes off, because too many people will default, so the RBA wants pay rises to enable the wheel to start turning.
Pay rise = business has to increase prices to cover the cost = worker spends the extra money on a house = house prices accelerate up = RBA gets control of currency with interest rates again = worker becomes a wage slave again.
From a workers perspective, as long as you are working things are pretty good, my mate the local council garbo is on $100k and he can buy a house in Perth for $350k that's pretty good.


----------



## SirRumpole (10 February 2021)

sptrawler said:


> They wont raise interest rates until inflation takes off, because too many people will default, so the RBA wants pay rises to enable the wheel to start turning.
> Pay rise = business has to increase prices to cover the cost = worker spends the extra money on a house = house prices accelerate up = RBA gets control of currency with interest rates again = worker becomes a wage slave again.
> From a workers perspective, as long as you are working things are pretty good, my mate the local council garbo is on $100k and he can buy a house in Perth for $350k that's pretty good.




Why the assumption that wages will "take off" uncontrollably ?

Inflation has been below the Reserve Banks targets for decades, so if properly managed moderate rises in wages will result in more consumer spending and bigger profits for companies.


----------



## Dona Ferentes (10 February 2021)

crashing the party.... rba.gov.au



> _The Board will not increase the cash rate until actual inflation is sustainably within the 2 to 3 per cent target range. For this to occur, wages growth will have to be materially higher than it is currently.
> This will require significant gains in employment and a return to a tight labour market. *The Board does not expect these conditions to be met until 2024 at the earliest.*_


----------



## Smurf1976 (10 February 2021)

SirRumpole said:


> What manufactured goods ?
> 
> As you say, if we want manufacturing back, tariffs will be needed. We simply can't compete with slave labour, and why should we ?



We still do make the odd random thing.

The world's third largest electrolytic zinc refinery is in Tasmania for example and we've still got blast furnaces operating for steel production in SA and NSW.

But overall yes, manufacturing in Australia has declined to the point there's stuff all left. Oil refining's a classic example - we had 10 refineries of which 4 remain, one is in the process of closing and another announced its closure today which leaves two. We've gone from an industry that existed in all 5 mainland states to one which remains as a single operator in Brisbane and another at Geelong.

As with anything, if it can't continue then it comes to a halt - Australia can't continue with the path of relying on iron ore, coal, gas and mass immigration and winding down manufacturing for the simple reason that the world market doesn't support growth in iron ore or coal, we don't have enough gas to grow that, and immigration has fallen in a heap too.

When something comes to the point where it just can't continue then change is inevitable, the only question being the detail of it.


----------



## sptrawler (10 February 2021)

SirRumpole said:


> Why the assumption that wages will "take off" uncontrollably ?
> 
> Inflation has been below the Reserve Banks targets for decades, so if properly managed moderate rises in wages will result in more consumer spending and bigger profits for companies.



I never said they will take off uncontrollably, they will take off until the RBA and monetary effect of interest rates come into effect and get control of the economy again, be that to speed the economy up or slow it down.
At the moment everything is frozen, the RBA can't put up interest rates, because workers can't afford it. Businesses can't put up costs because people wont buy it,  so something has to give to get the wheel moving and the easiest thing is to free up wages.
But there is always a lag in the economy, so even if wages start rising, it takes time for inflation to kick in.
For the Reserve Bank to be able to properly manage the economy, the economy has to be working properly, currently it isn't.
With regard manufacturing, we have lost most of it, but if Australia wants to remain an independent first world nation it will have to re introduce manufacturing. Simple really.


----------



## over9k (10 February 2021)

Smurf1976 said:


> We still do make the odd random thing.
> 
> The world's third largest electrolytic zinc refinery is in Tasmania for example and we've still got blast furnaces operating for steel production in SA and NSW.
> 
> ...



Yeah, the difference is made up with even MORE immigration. 

You just watch.


----------



## moXJO (10 February 2021)

Its hard to see wages raise from here. Especially during covid. 

We now have certain businesses killing it and others getting killed. 
The higher wages lead to less choice unfortunately. Sooner or later it will literally be bunnings, woollies and kmart. 

On another note:

*Noticed junk bond yields have moved under 4% (for the first time?). People are loading into steaming piles for yields. 


*Australia needs a total education revolution geared at the upcoming dominance of Asia.


----------



## over9k (10 February 2021)

Every asian country has a completely inverted population pyramid and are totally reliant on massive choke points for their oil. They aren't going to dominate ****.


----------



## over9k (10 February 2021)

Not being funny here, what will happen over the next few years is whatever causes the powers that be the least amount of pain. They might (might) have to finally stop ripping the whole country off, but that's really as far as we can realistically hope to get with them. There's no way they're going to put themselves through any more pain than they absolutely have to.


----------



## SirRumpole (10 February 2021)

over9k said:


> Not being funny here, what will happen over the next few years is whatever causes the powers that be the least amount of pain. They might (might) have to finally stop ripping the whole country off, but that's really as far as we can realistically hope to get with them. There's no way they're going to put themselves through any more pain than they absolutely have to.




Yes, which basically means doing nothing for the LNP. Don't rock the boat with spending (investment) in new technologies and keep saying what a great job they did with covid.

Keep propping up industries like tourism which employs mainly low paying jobs and don't give much support to manufacturing.

Business as usual in other words.


----------



## over9k (10 February 2021)

SirRumpole said:


> Yes, which basically means doing nothing for the LNP. Don't rock the boat with spending (investment) in new technologies and keep saying what a great job they did with covid.
> 
> Keep propping up industries like tourism which employs mainly low paying jobs and don't give much support to manufacturing.
> 
> Business as usual in other words.



Yeah, this is my fear. All the justifications for the "need" for certain things (I'm looking at you, mass migration, foreign students, and foreign "investment" into existing housing stock) will be even greater now. 

Even Krudd ran immigration at a net 400,000 in 2009 if I recall correctly. All of Canberra in 12 months.


----------



## sptrawler (10 February 2021)

SirRumpole said:


> Yes, which basically means doing nothing for the LNP. Don't rock the boat with spending (investment) in new technologies and keep saying what a great job they did with covid.
> 
> Keep propping up industries like tourism which employs mainly low paying jobs and don't give much support to manufacturing.
> 
> Business as usual in other words.



Well it doesn't sound good for us then does it, Labor signed us up to the Lima agreement and got rid of tariffs in the first place, which killed our manufacturing.
So who is going to turn it around for us Pauline? 
She would have about as much chance as Trump did. 😂


_In March, 1975, Hawke/Whitlam accepted the conditions of the U.N.I.D.O. -sponsored “LIMA DECLARATION”, in Lima, Peru, whereby Australia would devolve its manufacturing and much of its agricultural industries in favour of Third World Asian countries, and be only a mine for the rest of the World_


----------



## qldfrog (10 February 2021)

sptrawler said:


> Well it doesn't sound good for us then does it, as it was Labor that signed up to the Lima agreement and got rid of tariffs, in the first place.
> So who is going to turn it around for us Pauline?



the only people ever at least pretending to save the western view of the world: former democracy, existence of midlle class aspiration are nowadays labelled as far right, populists BTW  *what is wrong with being for the people, people is an insult
Make no mistake, real wealth is globally finite, and when one pretends otherwise, the earth is footing the bill, so as population increases and Asia rises, the real wealth of the west goes down the drain, first the working class then the middle class diseappears and then the peacocks parading at the top follow.
we can not decide to rebuilt manufacturing, we have no workforce or brain, do you want to compare the education level of the average chinese kid with our own?
our model can work if we attract as the US did for decades the brightest, and for that, it is not welfare and NDIS we need, it is the carrot of of extreme wealth and social escalator
We attracted in Australia for a while disappointed europeans coming for the beach and relatively free lifestyle..I was among the past waves, i doubt this is still the case.
25 y ago, all Europeans I was meeting here dreamed of settling in Australia, not anymore. And these are people crying out to get out of the EU..well but not to Australia anymore
A bit sad but you draw the conclusion you want. I do not believe we will attract the brightest, the EU neither and with Biden, doubt the US will


----------



## over9k (10 February 2021)

Labour hasn't been a labour movement for a very long time. Not sure I'd date it back to the 70's, but mark latham was the last working class labourite, and he was actually kicked out iirc and is with one nation now.

That alone should really tell you everything you need to know about what the left has become: a movement of upper-middle champagne socialists that resent the upper's.


----------



## sptrawler (10 February 2021)

@over9k Just read up on the 1970's Lima Declaration and the dismantling of tariffs following the signing, then you may have an understanding of the current situation. 
I'm not saying anyone is right or wrong, it just shows how quickly things can turn to $hit, from good intentions.
It also shows how quickly blame can be shifted, from one side to another.


----------



## Macquack (10 February 2021)

sptrawler said:


> At the end of the day inflation is good, but without an increase in productivity, it just devalues your buying power in reality it is just a sugar hit.
> Just my opinion.



Inflation is only good if it is on your "income" side and not on your "expenditure" side.

The only people getting a sugar hit from inflation is real estate holders in the big cities.

I don't believe the "narrow" inflation definition used by the Federal Government. A recent trip to the supermarket proved it to me.


----------



## sptrawler (10 February 2021)

Macquack said:


> Inflation is only good if it is on your "income" side and not on your "expenditure" side.
> 
> The only people getting a sugar hit from inflation is real estate holders in the big cities.
> 
> I don't believe the "narrow" inflation definition used by the Federal Government. A recent trip to the supermarket proved it to me.



That is why I said it is has to be due to increased productivity, otherwise it just gets transferred to another part of the economy and there is no net gain.
Otherwise it is like trying to divide up a cake and give one party more than the others, someone has to get less, that is unless you make a bigger cake. Which is the improved productivity.


----------



## SirRumpole (10 February 2021)

sptrawler said:


> @over9k Just read up on the 1970's Lima Declaration and the dismantling of tariffs following the signing, then you may have an understanding of the current situation.
> I'm not saying anyone is right or wrong, it just shows how quickly things can turn to $hit, from good intentions.
> It also shows how quickly blame can be shifted, from one side to another.




1970 was Fifty years ago. What has anyone been doing recently ?

Easy to look back with 20/20 hindsight but ceding manufacturing to low wage countries was only going to guarantee that they remained low wage.

There should have been some stipulation that wages would be progressively raised to the level of the developed world so that everyone was on the same playing field.

A lot of countries got sucked into an agenda that was flawed in the real world.


----------



## sptrawler (10 February 2021)

SirRumpole said:


> 1970 was Fifty years ago. What has anyone been doing recently ?
> 
> Easy to look back with 20/20 hindsight but ceding manufacturing to low wage countries was only going to guarantee that they remained low wage.
> 
> ...



Well the only ones who have any hope of invigorating industry is the Libs, how would you suggest Labor would do it?
Don't want it to degenerate into a political debate, but there is no way labor are going to do anything for business, I was just asking you who was going to turn it around when you said the Libs wont do anything?
I thought it was a fair question.

By the way the dismantling of the tariffs mainly happened in the late 1980's early 1990's, which is only 30 odd years ago, the demise has happened very quickly in the scheme of things.









						Trade Liberalisation and the Australian Labor Party
					

The three most substantial decisions to reduce Australia’s trade barriers — in 1973, 1988 and 1991 — were made by Labor Governments. Labor’s policy shift preceded the conversion of social democratic ...




					onlinelibrary.wiley.com
				




_The three most substantial decisions to reduce Australia’s trade barriers — in 1973, 1988 and 1991 — were made by Labor Governments. Labor’s policy shift preceded the conversion of social democratic parties in other countries to trade liberalisation. To understand why this was so, it is necessary to consider trade policy as being shaped by more than interest groups and political institutions. Drawing on interviews with the main political figures, including Gough Whitlam, Bob Hawke, Paul Keating and John Button, this article explores why the intellectual arguments for free trade had such a powerful impact on Labor’s leadership, and how those leaders managed to implement major tariff cuts, while largely maintaining party unity._


----------



## over9k (10 February 2021)

I can't see the libs losing the next election. Too many boomers still alive and the whole "superior economic managers" branding of money/retirement/pensions to them. 

I can just see the slogan now: "Can you think of anything crazier than putting labour in charge during a recession?"  

So with that in mind, we get whatever the libs give us, which is going to be a giant **** sandwich.


----------



## sptrawler (10 February 2021)

over9k said:


> I can't see the libs losing the next election. Too many boomers still alive and the whole "superior economic managers" branding of money/retirement/pensions to them.
> 
> I can just see the slogan now: "Can you think of anything crazier than putting labour in charge during a recession?"
> 
> So with that in mind, we get whatever the libs give us, which is going to be a giant **** sandwich.



I actually hope they lose, then we might at least get the retirement age lifted to 70, instead of 67. 😂 At least that is obviously a sandwich that you are prepared to eat, as it was served up o.k last time labor were in.  
Ask the 65 year old brickies and labourers who are still working what they think. 😜
Even if you are really struggling physically, they sorted out the disability pension so it is harder to get, yes bring it on.
Nothing like a good dose of reality.
There is an old saying be carefull what you wish for.lol




__





						The Disability Support Pension's False Crisis – 	 	 	Opinion – 	 	 	ABC Ramp Up 	 	(Australian Broadcasting Corporation)
					

There are perfectly good reasons why the number of people on Disability Support Pensions is increasing and none of them have anything to do with people cheating the system, writes Peter Horbury from Social Security Rights Victoria.




					www.abc.net.au


----------



## moXJO (10 February 2021)

over9k said:


> Every asian country has a completely inverted population pyramid and are totally reliant on massive choke points for their oil. They aren't going to dominate ****.



India and China will be where the money is at. Growth and opportunities is Asia centric.


----------



## sptrawler (10 February 2021)

moXJO said:


> India and China will be where the money is at. Growth and opportunities is Asia centric.



I definitely think a lot of money is being poured into India, Thailand and Vietnam.


----------



## over9k (10 February 2021)

India yes, the others no. Again, it's all about demographics.


----------



## moXJO (10 February 2021)

Labor, or libs.... what's the difference? 
Some slight tinkering round the edges of either political spectrum. 

In saying that I want libs tossed out. But I'd like half of the Labor front bench to disappear as well.


----------



## moXJO (10 February 2021)

over9k said:


> India yes, the others no. Again, it's all about demographics.



Numbers and numbers filtering into middle class is a big one as well. Lets not forget China can basically force the population to make more kids.



sptrawler said:


> I definitely think a lot of money is being poured into India, Thailand and Vietnam.



Vietnam is on fire right now. Its amazing how much its changed. Thailand makes some decent products as well. Very consumer minded too.


----------



## sptrawler (10 February 2021)

moXJO said:


> Labor, or libs.... what's the difference?
> Some slight tinkering round the edges of either political spectrum.
> 
> In saying that I want libs tossed out. But I'd like half of the Labor front bench to disappear as well.



I'd agree 100% with that.


----------



## sptrawler (10 February 2021)

moXJO said:


> . Thailand makes some decent products as well. Very consumer minded too.



Thailand has overtaken us on the industrialization index Vietnam is just behind us, here is some interesting reading, for those who care.




__





						UNIDO Statistics Data Portal
					

UNIDO statistics,INDSTAT2,INDSTAT4,MINDSTAT,IDSB,MVA,CIP.Contains Indicators GDP,Population,Employees,Output,Wages,Exports,Imports,Value added,Production,ISIC



					stat.unido.org


----------



## SirRumpole (10 February 2021)

sptrawler said:


> Well the only ones who have any hope of invigorating industry is the Libs, how would you suggest Labor would do it?




How have they done that in their current term ?

They just do what their big business backers tell them to do.

If it was up to me I'd put export taxes on all our natural resources and use the money to start high tech industries like EV's and vaccine manufacturing which we are sadly deficient in.

Whether Labor has the guts to do this after the resource super profits tax failure is another matter.


----------



## qldfrog (10 February 2021)

sptrawler said:


> Thailand has overtaken us on the industrialization index Vietnam is just behind us, here is some interesting reading, for those who care.
> 
> 
> 
> ...



They are satellites of the china new superpower status and benefit from rhe eipples,in the same way we do witb mines.we sell our soil with minimal people employed on very basic tasks,they build factories and gather knowhow for millions


----------



## sptrawler (10 February 2021)

SirRumpole said:


> *How have they done that in their current term ?*
> 
> They just do what their big business backers tell them to do.
> 
> ...



What you mean like this Rumpy?








						Taxpayers, CSL to build vaccine manufacturing plant
					

The Morrison government will spend $1 billion over a decade to underwrite the construction of a new vaccine production facility to guarantee the nation continues to have its own supply of flu shots, antivenins and, if another pandemic occurs, the sovereign capability to look after its own...




					www.afr.com
				



I suppose hatred runs deep and rust is hard to remove?


----------



## sptrawler (10 February 2021)

qldfrog said:


> They are satellites of the china new superpower status and benefit from rhe eipples,in the same way we do witb mines.we sell our soil with minimal people employed on very basic tasks,they build factories and gather knowhow for millions



It is interesting to look at Australia's economic makeup and then compare it with countries like India and Indonesia, who are behind us on the index.
It is a very enlightening PDF and well worth studying IMO.


----------



## SirRumpole (10 February 2021)

sptrawler said:


> What you mean like this Rumpy?
> 
> 
> 
> ...




They got caught with their pants down and now they are trying to pretend that they are being clever by plugging a hole.

I don't know if Labor would have done anything sooner but to me it's worth finding out if they are better than the current mob.


----------



## Smurf1976 (10 February 2021)

SirRumpole said:


> 970 was Fifty years ago. What has anyone been doing recently ?



It was but a huge problem with Australian politics is that it is largely still stuck in the early 1980's and has barely moved since that time.

Hawke's dead and Keating's relevance ended 25 years ago but in practice we're still living in that era.

That's visible in everything. For example we've still got essentially the same energy policy which Labor adopted at a meeting in Warrnambool back in Hawke's days as PM and which was itself merely a modification to the policies adopted by the previous Fraser (Liberal) government in the 1970's.

Same with lots of things, our national thinking is still firmly stuck in the era when Rubik's Cubes were new, every mainstream car was wedge shaped and the more ridiculous something or someone looked, the more fashionable it or they were deemed to be - bonus points if it involved fluoro colours. 

40 years isn't yesterday, it's more than a generation, it's roughly half a human lifetime and about the average time someone spends in the workforce. Pretty much nobody's driving the same car or working the same job they were back then and for that matter literally half the current population wasn't even born.

If someone wants retro well then dust off some old records, watch a few old movies or whatever but give it a miss when it comes to economic policies and so on, we really need to move into the 2020's.


----------



## sptrawler (11 February 2021)

SirRumpole said:


> I don't know if Labor would have done anything sooner but to me it's worth finding out if they are better than the current mob.



Change for change sake, its happened before, but I doubt it will happen in the current climate.


----------



## sptrawler (11 February 2021)

Smurf1976 said:


> If someone wants retro well then dust off some old records, watch a few old movies or whatever but give it a miss when it comes to economic policies and so on, we really need to move into the 2020's.



My feeling is as you have mentioned, the virus has highlighted the precarious position globalisation has put western countries in with regard supply of essential goods, I'm very sure wheels will be turning to rectify the situation.


----------



## qldfrog (11 February 2021)

sptrawler said:


> My feeling is as you have mentioned, the virus has highlighted the precarious position globalisation has put western countries in with regard supply of essential goods, I'm very sure wheels will be turning to rectify the situation.



And i am sure they will not.
We in Australia and NZ have a chance to actually change as, we have not actually have any real encounter yet with the virus.in Europe and the US, they actually got it and the scare tactic and continuous propaganda has split countries in a USSR like mode: a majority of scared ,brain washed citizens ready to rat, hate and a minority of fined ,black listed and bashed by truncheon resistance which is broadly in line with the people who were fighting globalism already 20y ago and are labelled as populists: trump,brexit,gilet jaunes,etc etc
While many will read this as political, the Reset is the economic program pushed by the powers in place and it is very clear:
a final end to real capitalism toward :universal income, unity of outcome on a GLOBAL scale so relentless globalisation, a green deal so throwing away your home ,car ,goods, food to push growth and create fake employment but all that will still be built in the cheaper countries especially via Chinese outsourced companies..aka the satellite countries.. Vietnam, Laos , Indian continent for cheap labor intensive tasks
And if not enough, some war noise against Russia so a push in defence spending and R and D, but not against China who is now the big kid in the block.
In all the above, remanufacturing is not involved and for us we will remain confined to producing ore and wheat..(not cattle) while being pushed into the chinese sphere of influence..after all, they are on Asia.
With the boost given byCovid 19..before covid 20,21,22  it will be very easy to see without waiting for 20y.i suspect will be fully in place within 5 years.and Australia will have no choice but walking the line.
Keep your eyes and ears open.


----------



## sptrawler (11 February 2021)

@qldfrog you may well be right and this may well be just a small speed bump.


----------



## qldfrog (11 February 2021)

sptrawler said:


> @qldfrog you may well be right and this may well be just a small speed bump.



Time will tell


----------



## sptrawler (24 February 2021)

Interesting article that highlights what we have been saying for a long time, if people want to save they can, it just means they have to change their lifestyle.
Well covid did it for a lot of them.








						'Some of the best times I've seen': The COVID-19 economy had big winners — but it might not last
					

Mickayla Downey and Matthew Hardiman saw an unexpected boost to their savings during the COVID pandemic, enabling them to buy their own home — and they are not alone.




					www.abc.net.au


----------



## qldfrog (24 February 2021)

sptrawler said:


> Interesting article that highlights what we have been saying for a long time, if people want to save they can, it just means they have to change their lifestyle.
> Well covid did it for a lot of them.
> 
> 
> ...



A whole side of society unaffected financially,sometimes even better off after welfare, and unable to spend so saving and another part ruined by the covid "fight" measures ..and forced to sell.

For every retail or hospitality business owner going down the drain, there is a family home for sale...
where do you think this will ends when, in an extreme point of view, saving and financial litteracy/entrepreneurship is punished while free spending and financial incompetence/sheeple behaviour is rewarded: how will this end once lockdowns and pubs reopen while welfare is at least reduced and work required?


----------



## SirRumpole (26 February 2021)

The economy according to Ross Garnaut.

He is in favour of a UBI.









						Australia plagued by 'voluntary unemployment', leading economist warns
					

Eminent economist Professor Ross Garnaut criticises Australia's policymakers for allowing hundreds of thousands of people to remain unemployed in recent years.




					www.abc.net.au


----------



## qldfrog (26 February 2021)

SirRumpole said:


> The economy according to Ross Garnaut.
> 
> He is in favour of a UBI.
> 
> ...



with genius like that..
_Professor Garnaut has also thrown his support behind the idea of a guaranteed basic income for practically all adults, paid at the same level as the dole (known as universal basic income in the economic literature), and a major reconfiguration of the way businesses pay company tax._
then he wants the gov to push for full employment;
so I get money whether I work or not, but I will happily go and get a job..
men are from Mars maybe but economist are from Saturn...


----------



## SirRumpole (26 February 2021)

qldfrog said:


> so I get money whether I work or not, but I will happily go and get a job..




But you won't get enough money to buy a McMansion or a yacht, so if you want those you still have to work, or run a business.


----------



## qldfrog (26 February 2021)

SirRumpole said:


> But you won't get enough money to buy a McMansion or a yacht, so if you want those you still have to work, or run a business.



no, you just vote labour and steal it from your neighbour directly or via taxes, as obviously the UBI will need more taxes on the working few or business.
The study of former USSR and then France in the last 40y should be mandatory for our leaders, and probably to be allowed to vote.

The dreamt Reset scenario of sheeples fed games and bread (coke and vegan hamburgers) with a few mega corporate sharing their gain with a corrupt ruling class.


----------



## Smurf1976 (26 February 2021)

Ultimately if the concern's about unemployment, wage growth and so on well then there's either the approach of treating the symptoms or there's the approach of treating the disease.

Ask any doctor or even a carpenter and they'll tell you that in the context of their respective fields, always treat the disease if possible and that'll get rid of the symptoms anyway.

The disease being best explained by saying that car manufacturing's dead, oil refining's walking out the door right now, glass manufacturing's next. And so on.

You can't have a First World economy based on a Third World foundation of resource extraction and low value services. Simple as that really. 

At the street level right now, well what I see is a lot of money being spent but mostly based on hope more than reality. From individuals to government, the money's flowing but mostly without any real plan so far as I can determine. Even business seems willing to invest in things that aren't very profitable.


----------



## qldfrog (26 February 2021)

Smurf1976 said:


> You can't have a First World economy based on a Third World foundation of resource extraction and low value services. Simple as that really.



been shouting that for 20y to people paid 120k a year to drive trucks, tradies thinking that a carpenter, plumber, etc can ask $120 an hour and this is normal and that a baristas and Mc Mansion society with PHDs in gender studies can be funded on mining royalties


----------



## sptrawler (26 February 2021)

One thing for sure when the mining stops, the welfare stops, that's a given. 👍


----------



## moXJO (6 March 2021)

Was out in town for dinner and the streets/restaurants/bars are packed.


----------



## jbocker (6 March 2021)

Going out in a couple of minutes going to find an eating house on the Highway to Hell. I expect everything to be busy. Been that way for some time in Perth. But hadnt eaten here for some 12+ months.


----------



## moXJO (8 March 2021)

I've noticed that eateries that were round the clock packed during covid have gone back to normal and empty after the busy periods.


----------



## SirRumpole (29 May 2021)

> SirRumpole said:
> 
> 
> Does this include government benefits, family tax allowances etc or just employer pay ?
> ...



I'm sure you can find it, there is heaps of info, when competency standards were introduced in the late 1990's, there was a wage explosion.

Something to get your teeth into (if you like that sort of thing).



> https://esacentral.org.au/images/ZhuRMahuteauSMavromarasKRichardsonS.pdf


----------



## sptrawler (29 May 2021)

SirRumpole said:


> I'm sure you can find it, there is heaps of info, when competency standards were introduced in the late 1990's, there was a wage explosion.
> 
> Something to get your teeth into (if you like that sort of thing).



That is very true over my working career I worked for private and public, in the 1970/80's public sector wages were less that private sector, the justification by management was that public sector employment was much more secure, therefore wages reflected that.
As privatisation took hold that argument no longer held water and at EBA discussions, of which i attended quite a few, management was told to get stuffed and wage rises were more forthcoming.
By the mid to late 1990's public sector wages were well and truly on par with the private sector and these days they have probably exceeded them in a lot of fields. I'm mainly referring to heavy industry and the power industry.
Wages and conditions in all fields have changed a lot, wages have gone up, but so have hours worked with the advent of 12 hour shifts. Also shift swings have changed, with the advent of more air travel, a lot of the work years ago entailed living in the remote Towns, now with fifo 8 days on 6 days off.
In the 1980's when we worked remotely, it was mainly drive in drive out and 5 weeks on 1 week off, so over the course of time lots change.


----------



## over9k (29 May 2021)

sptrawler said:


> That is very true over my working career I worked for private and public, in the 1970/80's public sector wages were less that private sector, the justification by management was that public sector employment was much more secure, therefore wages reflected that.
> As privatisation took hold that argument no longer held water and at EBA discussions, of which i attended quite a few, management was told to get stuffed and wage rises were more forthcoming.
> By the mid to late 1990's public sector wages were well and truly on par with the private sector and these days they have probably exceeded them in a lot of fields. I'm mainly referring to heavy industry and the power industry.
> Wages and conditions in all fields have changed a lot, wages have gone up, but so have hours worked with the advent of 12 hour shifts. Also shift swings have changed, with the advent of more air travel, a lot of the work years ago entailed living in the remote Towns, now with fifo 8 days on 6 days off.
> In the 1980's when we worked remotely, it was mainly drive in drive out and 5 weeks on 1 week off, so over the course of time lots change.



Public sector wages, benefits et al are well above private now trawler. Public sector gigs are now plum jobs given to people with power and/or connections, usually a parent that's already a high ranking public servant. 

The only other way to get your foot in the door is if you meet some kind of diversity criteria. Competence has virtually nothing to do with it, not any more.


----------



## Humid (29 May 2021)

over9k said:


> Public sector wages, benefits et al are well above private now trawler. Public sector gigs are now plum jobs given to people with power and/or connections, usually a parent that's already a high ranking public servant.
> 
> The only other way to get your foot in the door is if you meet some kind of diversity criteria. Competence has virtually nothing to do with it, not any more.



Flat rates no security no benefits welcome to labour hire land!
Remember before covid how flat the economy was the above is a big part of the problem


----------



## over9k (29 May 2021)

Humid said:


> Flat rates no security no benefits welcome to labour hire land!
> Remember before covid how flat the economy was the above is a big part of the problem



You don't need to tell me what scumbags are running society. I am all too aware.


----------



## Tyler Durden (28 June 2021)

I see so many shops closed on George Street in Sydney now. A lot were Chinese businesses like restaurants, mobile phone stores, bubble tea places etc. I'm assuming these businesses couldn't handle the lockdown and the consequences thereafter.


----------



## basilio (1 July 2021)

Excellent story on ABC about the rising fortunes of Australia mineral exports.

Not just iron ore although that is the big one.  Real question might be how does this huge increase in national income get spread across the broader economy ?













						Iron ore juggernaut hauls Australia into a current account surplus that's set to stay
					

For the first time since the early 1970s, Australia is consistently earning more from the rest of the world than it pays out, and a leading economist says that will set the nation in good stead to withstand any bumps in the pandemic recovery.




					www.abc.net.au


----------



## sptrawler (2 July 2021)

basilio said:


> Excellent story on ABC about the rising fortunes of Australia mineral exports.
> 
> Not just iron ore although that is the big one.  Real question might be how does this huge increase in national income get spread across the broader economy ?
> 
> ...



That becomes difficult Bas, when the high paying jobs are in places far away from Sydney and Melbourne, how you share the wealth is take the money off the workers and give it to those who want to live in Sydney and Melbourne.
How you do that without looking like a bunch of entitled pricks is the issue IMO.


----------



## Smurf1976 (2 July 2021)

basilio said:


> Real question might be how does this huge increase in national income get spread across the broader economy ?



It's probably not so noticeable in big cities but having lived in smaller places it was always very noticeable when whatever the big driver of wealth was wasn't going well or vice versa.

Very hard to describe but you could just feel it much like summer changing to autumn when things turned down or winter changing to spring when they turned up. Just a general sinking or rising feeling as the effects started to ripple through.

Senior managers in the public service do keep a watch on commodity prices. At first you might think it would have zero interest to them since what on earth does the price of iron or coal have to do with their running of some completely unrelated service on the other side of the country? Ultimately though well it takes a couple of years but if the price of ore drops, in due course their budget ends up being cut and it's their problem to make it work. Vice versa when times are good, there's no official increase but they manage to get one anyway.

Lots of ways it slowly ripples through.


----------



## SirRumpole (2 July 2021)

basilio said:


> Not just iron ore although that is the big one. Real question might be how does this huge increase in national income get spread across the broader economy ?




We need a mining export tax if we are going to get anywhere near paying off the debt.


----------



## Humid (2 July 2021)

When can we expect Twiggy and Gina to don the Hi Vis


----------



## qldfrog (2 July 2021)

or spend less
 if I spend more than I earn, my first option is NOT to try to get a second job....


----------



## over9k (2 July 2021)

SirRumpole said:


> We need a mining export tax if we are going to get anywhere near paying off the debt.



0% probability. 

They'll cut spending on _everything_ long before they raise taxes.


----------



## SirRumpole (2 July 2021)

over9k said:


> 0% probability.
> 
> They'll cut spending on _everything_ long before they raise taxes.




Yes *they* will.

Unless they are not the government.


----------



## Value Collector (2 July 2021)

SirRumpole said:


> We need a mining export tax if we are going to get anywhere near paying off the debt.



The government already charges a royalty on mined products + minings companies pay income tax + miners pay income tax + shareholders pay income tax + many more taxes through out the supply chain.

how much of every $1 of revenue do you think the government deserves, surely those other interest groups in the supply chain deserve to do well in the good years for the risk they take, because soon enough the bad years will come.


----------



## SirRumpole (2 July 2021)

Value Collector said:


> how much of every $1 of revenue do you think the government deserves




The government is us, and we own the stuff in the ground so we can set the return we want.


----------



## Craton (2 July 2021)

Halving the royalties Broken Hill, NSW mines paid circa 1983, increased mine life (thankfully) for about 30 more yrs.

For a bit of royalty background, have attached NSW historical mineral and petroleum royalties PDF up to Oct 2012.

From APO site.


> This paper sets out a history of mineral and petroleum ownership and royalties in NSW as a background to the debate concerning recent changes to State royalties and Federal mining tax regimes. The timelines provided start at 1906, the point at which the first consolidated mining legislation was introduced.
> 
> While the majority of the paper focuses on the changes in royalty rates that have occurred between 1906 and 2012, where possible, the paper identifies the reasons why changes to the NSW royalty regime were made.



One interesting note (among many others) was how privately "owned coal" was vested back to the Crown in 1981.

That revenue almost 10 yrs ago was not trivial by any means.

Current royalty rates in NSW via the NSW govt. site.

UPDATE:
Oh, can't attach a PDF. The PDF is in the APO link.


----------



## Value Collector (2 July 2021)

SirRumpole said:


> The government is us, and we own the stuff in the ground so we can set the return we want.



That’s what the exisiting royalties that are paid are for.


----------



## over9k (2 July 2021)

SirRumpole said:


> Yes *they* will.
> 
> Unless they are not the government.



They will be.


----------



## SirRumpole (3 July 2021)

Value Collector said:


> That’s what the exisiting royalties that are paid are for.



There is nothing to say that the current royalty system can't be modified as circumstances change, and they have changed very much.


----------



## over9k (3 July 2021)

I will bet you ten whole dollars that they don't do ****.


----------



## Value Collector (3 July 2021)

SirRumpole said:


> There is nothing to say that the current royalty system can't be modified as circumstances change, and they have changed very much.



Circumstances haven’t really changed.

All that is happening is that Iron Ore is going through a temporary part of the cycle where there is high prices, and the government is benefiting from that because royalties increase as the price goes up because they are based on a % of the price.

however, Australians have tall poppy syndrome, and every time mining companies start making good money, people want to increase taxes, but these extra taxes could put them out of business in the bad years.

its also not necessary, because as the mining companies earn more they pay more company tax anyway.

The government also does their budgets based on conservative Iron Ore prices, so if the Iron Ore price ends the year higher, they budgeted deficit will be smaller or non existent.


----------



## SirRumpole (3 July 2021)

Value Collector said:


> Circumstances haven’t really changed.




Have you seen the National debt lately ?


----------



## SirRumpole (3 July 2021)

Value Collector said:


> its also not necessary, because as the mining companies earn more they pay more company tax anyway.




We all know that means exist to avoid paying company tax.

The excuse for a gst was to minimise tax avoidance.

A good case could be made for partially replacing profits tax on mining income with an export tax.


----------



## Value Collector (3 July 2021)

SirRumpole said:


> Have you seen the National debt lately ?



That is not because we aren’t charging enough on mining, that’s because we have been spending to much.

But also I don’t think there is anything wrong holding some national debt, think of all the infrastructure that will be inherited by the next generation that was built by the prior generations, why should they get that for free?

At the end of the day I don’t think this generation should over tax themselves and limit the building of infrastructure just to make sure the next generation inherits the country with no debt.

think of the Sydney harbour bridge for example, it improves the lives of many people in Sydney to this day, I don’t think the cost of it should have been paid by just the people that built it, the fact that the baby boomers had to pay of the debt on it was fine, even though it was the generation before that paid for it.

think of it like a child inheriting the family farm that’s worth $1 million, but it comes with $200k debt. I think the parents would be stupid to rip themselves off and limit them selves just to clear that last $200k for their spoilt brat.


----------



## Value Collector (3 July 2021)

SirRumpole said:


> We all know that means exist to avoid paying company tax.
> 
> The excuse for a gst was to minimise tax avoidance.
> 
> A good case could be made for partially replacing profits tax on mining income with an export tax.



Mining companies are some of the largest tax payers in Australia.

why not increase gst to 25% then?

what you are suggesting is basically put a tariff on ourselves, and knee cap our own productivity, and giving an advantage to our competitors


----------



## SirRumpole (3 July 2021)

Value Collector said:


> Mining companies are some of the largest tax payers in Australia.




How much of that goes to overseas shareholders therefore contributing nothing to our economy ?

If there is an export tax on minerals/gas the companies just put their prices up to overseas customers so the reduction to their revenue could be as small as they want it to be.


----------



## Humid (3 July 2021)

Working for Rio a few years back my supernintendo told me we were putting a tonne of iron ore on the ship for $15/T at the time it was $150/T so there would be a little wriggle room I would think.


----------



## Value Collector (3 July 2021)

SirRumpole said:


> How much of that goes to overseas shareholders therefore contributing nothing to our economy ?
> 
> If there is an export tax on minerals/gas the companies just put their prices up to overseas customers so the reduction to their revenue could be as small as they want it to be.



The taxes are paid here before dividends are paid.

Not only that, Australian mining companies profit from mines they own all over the world, so the Australian government earns company tax on mines that aren’t even in Australia.

before we make to much noise about extra taxes on mines, perhaps we should consider the affect of that rational spreading to other countries where the Australian companies currently mine, because they might seek to nationalise more of their mining revenue.


----------



## Value Collector (3 July 2021)

Humid said:


> Working for Rio a few years back my supernintendo told me we were putting a tonne of iron ore on the ship for $15/T at the time it was $150/T so there would be a little wriggle room I would think.



That’s before Royalties, taxes and the cost of capital.

at $15/ tonne on the ship, he actual break even price would be about $30, and from there every $1 extra they can charge results in about $0.50 cents in profit once you factor in the additional royalties, discounts and company tax that accrue against that additional dollar.

what people have to realise is that mining is a cyclical business, prices fluctuate, it was only a few years ago that BHP, RIO and Fortescue were earning just a couple of dollars per tonne, and most of their smaller competitors went bust.

yes there will be good years,  it we need them to make holding in through the bad years worth while.

mover time the profit will average out to a fair return on capital invested and risk taken, the market takes care of itself, if the return on capital gets to high for to long, competition will bring that return down again.


----------



## Humid (3 July 2021)

on a street level if they're not whinging they're getting a good deal


----------



## boofhead (3 July 2021)

BHP and Rio do their sales through Singapore to reduce their taxation here


----------



## wabullfrog (3 July 2021)

Value Collector said:


> At the end of the day I don’t think this generation should over tax themselves and limit the building of infrastructure just to make sure the next generation inherits the country with no debt.




The Intergenerational Report indicates there is pretty much zero chance of that happening.


----------



## Smurf1976 (3 July 2021)

Value Collector said:


> think of the Sydney harbour bridge for example, it improves the lives of many people in Sydney to this day



To the extent any one generation leaves a legacy for the next, I'd argue it basically comes down to things that were invented and major engineering projects that were built.

Roads, bridges, railways, dams, hydro power stations, pipelines and so on are as close to permanent as it gets so far as practical things built by humans are concerned. Everything else tends to be either ornamental or short term.

If you consider all things pre-WW2 that are of any relevance today then it's basically a list of inventions and big engineering projects. Pretty much all politics, creative arts etc is long forgotten.


----------



## Value Collector (3 July 2021)

Smurf1976 said:


> To the extent any one generation leaves a legacy for the next, I'd argue it basically comes down to things that were invented and major engineering projects that were built.
> 
> Roads, bridges, railways, dams, hydro power stations, pipelines and so on are as close to permanent as it gets so far as practical things built by humans are concerned. Everything else tends to be either ornamental or short term.
> 
> If you consider all things pre-WW2 that are of any relevance today then it's basically a list of inventions and big engineering projects. Pretty much all politics, creative arts etc is long forgotten.



Think of what Sydney harbour (and the rest of Australia) looked like when the first fleet sailed in, compared to today.

All the infrastructure that exists today, minus the debt is profit to be inherited by the next generation.

——————-
Also, by the time you actually hit the age of 18 (or 25) and start paying taxes, you have already consumed a lot of government resources eg education, health care etc that have raised your quality of life from what your equals in third world nations would have.

So it’s a bit rich to expect to arrive at that stage and not have any debt to pay.


----------



## Smurf1976 (3 July 2021)

Value Collector said:


> Think of what Sydney harbour (and the rest of Australia) looked like when the first fleet sailed in, compared to today.
> 
> All the infrastructure that exists today, minus the debt is profit to be inherited by the next generation.



Indeed and I'll go a step further and say it has has far more value than most "economic stimulus measures" which typically produce nothing more than a short term sugar hit.

Infrastructure brings lasting benefit and enables further wealth creation so it's a logical focus. 

As for the money borrowed to build it, well the only people I've ever heard raise objection were those who opposed the infrastructure being built as such. That is, debt was just a convenient argument to use against something they opposed for some other reason.


----------



## sptrawler (4 July 2021)

When resources first started to be exploited in the 1960's, a caveat on there removal was that towns were built near the resources, to build infrastucture in outback Australia.
The other caveat placed on the mining companies was to value add in Australia, which is how the AIS blast furnace and the Whyalla, Port Kembla and Newcastle Steel industries were started.
Now the World has changed but the royalties system hasn't changed, the value adding has been removed, but the royalties have remained generally unchanged.
I can understand those who have skin in the game , understanding the logics, most taxpayers probably are somewhat more sceptical. 
The value adding has in most cases gone, the country towns have been replaced by FIFO and the resource removal rate has increased ad infinitum.
How this benefits Australia in the long term, is questionable at best, raping the country at worst IMO.
As @SirRumpole says, there should be volumetric tax based on a benchmark index, to reflect the competitive advantage Australia has, with extraction and shipping costs. Eventually we run out of resources that are cheap to extract, then the piper gets paid, that is what will put our grandkids in poverty.  
Which actually probably doesn't bother those who don't have kids or grandkids one iota, as long as the dividends keep rolling in.
Again just my opinion and I did grow up in mining towns.


----------



## SirRumpole (4 July 2021)

Value Collector said:


> Think of what Sydney harbour (and the rest of Australia) looked like when the first fleet sailed in, compared to today.
> 
> All the infrastructure that exists today, minus the debt is profit to be inherited by the next generation.
> 
> ...




But in these days the debt is not due to building infrastructure, it's because of handouts to businesses and individuals to simply keep on living or keeping restaurant doors open.

Nothing extra is being built that wasn't planned already because governments simply can't afford it.

This debt has to be paid off, and income from infrastructure won't do it.


----------



## Value Collector (4 July 2021)

SirRumpole said:


> 1. But in these days the debt is not due to building infrastructure, it's because of handouts to businesses and individuals to simply keep on living or keeping restaurant doors open.
> 
> Nothing extra is being built that wasn't planned already because governments simply can't afford it.
> 
> 2. This debt has to be paid off, and income from infrastructure won't do it.



1. Actually lots of stuff is being built, snowy scheme, highways etc but Sometimes **** happens, and you have to press pause on infrastructure etc and go into debt to fight a war, this time it’s a war against a virus. We will survive, things will return to normal, and we won’t be devastated by bomb blasts.

2. yes debt does have to be paid off eventually, and it does get paid off, it’s just we keep adding new things along the way, just like some families always have car loans and credit card debt.

As I said it is not really fair for one generation to take a big cut in quality of life just to over tax themselves so that they can hand the world debt free to the next generation.

sometimes debt makes sense, I mean imagine a 70 year old that owns a $1 Million house, if they take out a $200K loan against the house and install a pool, by a new car, live a little better and holiday, so what.

the fact that they may die in 10 years and leave part of the 30 year loan to their kids is offset by the fact the kids get the $1Million house, that now has a pool, plus they enjoyed a few summers with happy family round the pool in the mean time.


----------



## over9k (4 July 2021)

This is also at a time when the demographic inversion (baby bust) chicken comes home to roost and all the tax revenue of the boomers in their final years of their working lives vanishes whilst they all start becoming drains on the system through healthcare and so on. 

Remember, there's not just the debt itself, there's the question of how easy (or not) it is to pay off. 

Gen X is significantly smaller than the boomers and taxes can only be raised so much. They were already going to have to raise them to pay for the boomers in retirement, but when you combine that with paying the debt off too, you have a catastrophe.


----------



## qldfrog (4 July 2021)

boofhead said:


> BHP and Rio do their sales through Singapore to reduce their taxation here



I believe they have been caught on that, but basically sell to your commodity desk in SGT at cost, which  resell with profit to your customers.
Glencore was even going further and claiming tax refund on losses.
the solution is easy: tax not on profit or anything like that with is just very subjective/easy to fudge but on moved ore/soil;
This incites less ecological imprint, and favorise efficient m


Smurf1976 said:


> To the extent any one generation leaves a legacy for the next, I'd argue it basically comes down to things that were invented and major engineering projects that were built.
> 
> Roads, bridges, railways, dams, hydro power stations, pipelines and so on are as close to permanent as it gets so far as practical things built by humans are concerned. Everything else tends to be either ornamental or short term.
> 
> If you consider all things pre-WW2 that are of any relevance today then it's basically a list of inventions and big engineering projects. Pretty much all politics, creative arts etc is long forgotten.



Sadly except communism, religion extremisms...some ideas seem to stick like sxxt to people's mind, and relentlessly destroy people lives and brains until the situation is so bad that it get discarded,then pops its head again elsewhere.


----------



## qldfrog (4 July 2021)

SirRumpole said:


> But in these days the debt is not due to building infrastructure, it's because of handouts to businesses and individuals to simply keep on living or keeping restaurant doors open.
> 
> Nothing extra is being built that wasn't planned already because governments simply can't afford it.
> 
> This debt has to be paid off, and income from infrastructure won't do it.



It is pretty clear money has lost its value/meaning for our governments:
not restricted to Australia: QE USA , Japan,EU but going down already to states and council levels..(new local budgets now released)  
So obviously the only possible result is same happening at the individuals level: increase bread price, hourly rate, etc...
Sxxt timing for retirement...


----------



## SirRumpole (4 July 2021)

qldfrog said:


> the solution is easy: tax not on profit or anything like that with is just very subjective/easy to fudge but on moved ore/soil;


----------



## over9k (4 July 2021)

Personally, I'd just trim the fat off the public service, let inflation run hot (shoot for 4%) and let bracket creep take care of it, but I have approximately 1/27 millionth of a say in what will be done, so it's not exactly up to me.


----------



## wayneL (4 July 2021)

over9k said:


> Personally, I'd just trim the fat off the public service, let inflation run hot (shoot for 4%) and let bracket creep take care of it, but I have approximately 1/27 millionth of a say in what will be done, so it's not exactly up to me.



Apart from trimming the fat, it's what I reckon they try to *let happen. 

There seems to be two views on the inflation front however, both equally compelling.


----------



## Smurf1976 (4 July 2021)

Value Collector said:


> Actually lots of stuff is being built, snowy scheme, highways etc but Sometimes **** happens, and you have to press pause on infrastructure etc and go into debt to fight a war, this time it’s a war against a virus. We will survive, things will return to normal, and we won’t be devastated by bomb blasts.



I think the point is that governments have basically handed out lots of money to be spent on consumer goods and so on whereas a greater economic return could have been achieved by putting that into additional infrastructure instead.

There's a limit to how much infrastructure is useful but we're not there yet, it's a better way to pump prime the local economy than importing big screen TV's and cars.


----------



## Smurf1976 (4 July 2021)

over9k said:


> Personally, I'd just trim the fat off the public service,



The problem with trimming the fat in the PS is they usually trim the meat and keep the fat.

A few large corporates have gone down the same track over the years and they, and their share price, tends to stagnate (at best) over the long term as a result. Short term bounce as costs are cut then long term pain as the reality of losing the best people sets in.

Avoid companies run by "fixer" type CEO's with a track record of coming in, slashing costs then moving on before the inevitable hits the fan. Pump and dump is the game basically....

As distinct from real, actual cost cutting which takes out the dead wood and keeps the rest. All too often that's not how it's done though.


----------



## wabullfrog (4 July 2021)

Can add "Transformation Consultants" to the "Fixer CEO" for optimal proverbial hitting the fan.


----------



## Value Collector (4 July 2021)

Smurf1976 said:


> I think the point is that governments have basically handed out lots of money to be spent on consumer goods and so on whereas a greater economic return could have been achieved by putting that into additional infrastructure instead.
> 
> There's a limit to how much infrastructure is useful but we're not there yet, it's a better way to pump prime the local economy than importing big screen TV's and cars.



In other years the government has handed out lots of money to be spent on bombs, bullets and aircraft etc to fight wars.

whether we are defending our quality of life through bombs, or by fighting a virus I don’t think there is much difference.


----------



## Value Collector (4 July 2021)

SirRumpole said:


> But in these days the debt is not due to building infrastructure, it's because of handouts to businesses and individuals to simply keep on living or keeping restaurant doors open.
> 
> Nothing extra is being built that wasn't planned already because governments simply can't afford it.
> 
> This debt has to be paid off, and income from infrastructure won't do it.



That’s part of fighting the negative effect of the virus, that has a genuine economic purpose, just as going into debt to fight WW2 also had an economic purpose.

during World War Two we were basically spending millions of dollars on ships, planes and tanks just to blow them up miles from home, destroying resources and our labour force, it’s no less wasteful than the activities mentioned to protect our economy and keep the population going during this pandemic.


----------



## Smurf1976 (4 July 2021)

Value Collector said:


> whether we are defending our quality of life through bombs, or by fighting a virus I don’t think there is much difference.



Spend the money on infrastructure and it creates economic activity now and into the future.

Spend the same money by handing it to consumers and it creates economic activity now but nothing tomorrow.

The approach we have taken, seems to have resulted in an extreme two halves situation. Things like residential building are booming to the point of material shortages meanwhile things like live entertainment are almost dead. The real economy's very split there.


----------



## SirRumpole (5 July 2021)

Value Collector said:


> That’s part of fighting the negative effect of the virus, that has a genuine economic purpose, just as going into debt to fight WW2 also had an economic purpose.
> 
> during World War Two we were basically spending millions of dollars on ships, planes and tanks just to blow them up miles from home, destroying resources and our labour force, it’s no less wasteful than the activities mentioned to protect our economy and keep the population going during this pandemic.




I have no argument with that, the point is how do we finance this extra spending ?

Leave the debt for other generations , cut spending on services, raise taxes on companies or individuals , or make more from our resources which can only be dug up once ?

We have an irresponsible government that has no plans for paying back the debt, while I don't disagree with how they spent money.

The resources sector is a viable source of more funds in an emergency, we would be stupid not to get more from it while we can.

When you look at how critical the LNP were about the relatively modest debt of Labor by comparison, but now the debt is theirs, there is no problem.

Ha ha ha.


----------



## over9k (5 July 2021)

Smurf1976 said:


> The problem with trimming the fat in the PS is they usually trim the meat and keep the fat.
> 
> A few large corporates have gone down the same track over the years and they, and their share price, tends to stagnate (at best) over the long term as a result. Short term bounce as costs are cut then long term pain as the reality of losing the best people sets in.
> 
> ...



Agreed entirely. 

It was a deliberate use of term though - trim the fat, not cut the budgets.


----------



## qldfrog (5 July 2021)

SirRumpole said:


> I have no argument with that, the point is how do we finance this extra spending ?
> 
> Leave the debt for other generations , cut spending on services, raise taxes on companies or individuals , or make more from our resources which can only be dug up once ?
> 
> ...



The problem is knowing that i have no doubt in my mind debt would be bigger had Labour been in power.with more businesses down.
Look at Victoria or here in Qld,would you like that type of gov at the federal level?
It is a (sad) battle between bad and worse


----------



## Value Collector (5 July 2021)

SirRumpole said:


> I have no argument with that, the point is how do we finance this extra spending ?
> 
> Leave the debt for other generations , cut spending on services, raise taxes on companies or individuals , or make more from our resources which can only be dug up once ?
> 
> ...



The debt will be paid, but during the middle of the war is not the time to worry about the debt.


----------



## Value Collector (5 July 2021)

Smurf1976 said:


> Spend the money on infrastructure and it creates economic activity now and into the future.
> 
> Spend the same money by handing it to consumers and it creates economic activity now but nothing tomorrow.
> 
> The approach we have taken, seems to have resulted in an extreme two halves situation. Things like residential building are booming to the point of material shortages meanwhile things like live entertainment are almost dead. The real economy's very split there.residential



If there is a residential building boom, that shows that handing money out is creating stuff for tomorrow.

At the end of the day, in hindsight how much would the government of 1930 been willing to go into debt if they were able to sail through the 1930’s with no depression?  Avoiding the pain of depressions is a very valid reason to increase government debt, as I said no different to fighting a war.


----------



## Humid (5 July 2021)

Smurf1976 said:


> Spend the money on infrastructure and it creates economic activity now and into the future.
> 
> Spend the same money by handing it to consumers and it creates economic activity now but nothing tomorrow.
> 
> The approach we have taken, seems to have resulted in an extreme two halves situation. Things like residential building are booming to the point of material shortages meanwhile things like live entertainment are almost dead. The real economy's very split there.



But governments are in the business of re-election the time infrastructure is finished they're long gone


----------



## moXJO (26 July 2021)

Local large fruit and veg market/supermarket that was 10 deep last lockdown is dead quite as of last two weeks. Talking to the owner, he mentioned cash seems to have dried up. 
Other supermarkets (woolies/coles/aldi) don't seem to be turning over as much.


----------



## wayneL (26 July 2021)

Local shopping centre (Midland WA) seemed to be thriving when we first arrived back here 3 months ago, only want or two shops in the centre boarded up.

I didn't countdown but there seems to be at least 10 boarded up now. And apart from McStalin having the occasional rush of blood, WA hasn't really had the same level of lockdown as the Eastern states.

But there does seem to be cracks appearing in the economy here.


----------



## divs4ever (26 July 2021)

Tyler Durden said:


> I don't catch taxis often, but when I do, I like to have a chat with the driver and get his/her views on the state of the economy. It can be quite an interesting chat.
> 
> I also like to walk a lot, and perhaps it's due to my 'bear-ish' nature, but I have noticed a lot of shops closing down on the streets I walk on. Some of these have been in existence for quite a while (like 5+ years) and some seem short lived.
> 
> ...





 WOW , i couldn't have put it better myself  in 2014 or now  , i use very similar tactics as well 

 an extra tactic ( asset might be more accurate )  i used was i knew  two quality professional tradesmen/businessmen ( both sadly deceased now  ) who had retired  , but  decided to take the Grey Nomad path  repeatedly  along the Australian East Coast ( one would visit Tasmania one didn't )   and joy of joys both didn't gild the lily  , so i would readily listen to the travels and opinions  , and get on honest street level appraisal .

 now i might be out of date with the data  , but MANY small businesses only last 3 years or less ( right back to the 1980's )   so 5 years is fair ( but sad for the hopes and dreams crushed )  maybe if you noted which sectors closed early  will give you a trend 

 BTW some centre managements , are infamous for their willingness to churn smaller tenants 

 cheers


----------



## divs4ever (26 July 2021)

wayneL said:


> Local shopping centre (Midland WA) seemed to be thriving when we first arrived back here 3 months ago, only want or two shops in the centre boarded up.
> 
> I didn't countdown but there seems to be at least 10 boarded up now. And apart from McStalin having the occasional rush of blood, WA hasn't really had the same level of lockdown as the Eastern states.
> 
> But there does seem to be cracks appearing in the economy here.



 when i was there ( WA ) in 2012  , WA was obviously the growth potential of Australia ,  quirky but full of potential 

 and the SCARY part  , is McStalin  appears to be the best of the current premiers ( apart for  maybe Tasmania  , i can't tell because the Tassie headlines get  buried by the other clown's antics )


----------



## divs4ever (26 July 2021)

Value Collector said:


> That’s part of fighting the negative effect of the virus, that has a genuine economic purpose, just as going into debt to fight WW2 also had an economic purpose.
> 
> during World War Two we were basically spending millions of dollars on ships, planes and tanks just to blow them up miles from home, destroying resources and our labour force, it’s no less wasteful than the activities mentioned to protect our economy and keep the population going during this pandemic.



 another difference is during WW1 and WW2   we killed thousands of young man in their prime , this time they would rather kill grannies ( pensioners  )


----------



## divs4ever (26 July 2021)

Value Collector said:


> If there is a residential building boom, that shows that handing money out is creating stuff for tomorrow.
> 
> At the end of the day, in hindsight how much would the government of 1930 been willing to go into debt if they were able to sail through the 1930’s with no depression?  Avoiding the pain of depressions is a very valid reason to increase government debt, as I said no different to fighting a war.



 MMT ( Modern Monetary Theory )  MIGHT work if the money is invested WISELY in durable infrastructure  , but sadly human nature ruins than chance


----------



## over9k (27 July 2021)

moXJO said:


> Local large fruit and veg market/supermarket that was 10 deep last lockdown is dead quite as of last two weeks. Talking to the owner, he mentioned cash seems to have dried up.
> Other supermarkets (woolies/coles/aldi) don't seem to be turning over as much.



People have already bought their 100,000 rolls of toilet paper and 50,000 bags of pasta the first time.


----------



## Humid (27 July 2021)

wayneL said:


> Local shopping centre (Midland WA) seemed to be thriving when we first arrived back here 3 months ago, only want or two shops in the centre boarded up.
> 
> I didn't countdown but there seems to be at least 10 boarded up now. And apart from McStalin having the occasional rush of blood, WA hasn't really had the same level of lockdown as the Eastern states.
> 
> But there does seem to be cracks appearing in the economy here.



Not gold standard thats for sure


----------



## Humid (27 July 2021)

Went to Joondalup yesterday which is probably the biggest suburban shopping centre in WA and it was pretty busy for a Monday but the weather could be the issue driving people indoors who knows?


----------



## moXJO (27 July 2021)

over9k said:


> People have already bought their 100,000 rolls of toilet paper and 50,000 bags of pasta the first time.



I'm in 'wiping with a roll in each hand' territory. You can never have enough.


----------



## moXJO (27 July 2021)

Real estate agent that lives next door mentioned no one is shifting retail properties. But industrial units are flying out the door.


----------



## divs4ever (27 July 2021)

moXJO said:


> Real estate agent that lives next door mentioned no one is shifting retail properties. But industrial units are flying out the door.



 yes , think about 'warehouse space ' it can be so versatile  , i have  see one company turn  what   would be goods storage , into an effective server room   with amazingly few extra resources ( apart from heavy duty power of course  )  not the stuff you see in glossy ads for big computers  , but effective  and MUCH cheaper ( no raised flooring  no mess of cooling pipes )


----------



## Smurf1976 (27 July 2021)

divs4ever said:


> i have see one company turn what would be goods storage , into an effective server room



Lots of things can be done.

Late 1990's I was involved setting up critical infrastructure inside an apartment.

Critical infrastructure as in government and the reason for using the (privately owned) apartment was simply that the location was workable for the cabling without major excavation works. Back then all the communications cabling had to be physically installed into the building and there were rather a lot of cables involved, if it were done today then technology makes it simpler.

It was in use for a decade or so.

Lots of situations where a building can be used for something very different to the obvious uses.

Another one I'm aware of is there's a critical gas facility located on a suburban house block. The neighbours are indeed just normal houses and it's a quiet residential street. That gas facility supplies the whole area. On site is the gas equipment and a small shed.

Industrial property and in some cases residential can certainly be put to alternative uses.


----------



## Smurf1976 (6 August 2021)

One thing I've noticed is that pretty much every business that has my email address seems to have sent some spam lately.

Enough that I've gone through opting out and otherwise saying no more thanks.

Possibly a coincidence but seems rather a lot all of a sudden.


----------



## Garpal Gumnut (6 August 2021)

REIT will all be rooned.

gg


----------



## basilio (6 August 2021)

I think that until there is a very fast, hard mass  COVID vaccination program in Australia  economic activity is going to crater. The infectiousness of  delta COVID is forcing snap lockdowns. NSW is deteriorating .

IMV we can't wait until 2022 for a 80% vaccinated population. There are examples of countries that make this an absolute priority and succeed.

Bhutan went from no jabs to being a world leader in COVID-19 ...​https://www.abc.net.au › news › bhutan-had-one-of-the...
16 Apr 2021 — In just 16 days, _Bhutan_ has _vaccinated_ 93 per cent of its adult population. That means 63 per cent of its 800,000 citizens have received their ...
Remote Himalayan kingdom of Bhutan has few doctors but ...​https://www.abc.net.au › news › covid-19-bhutan-vacci...

26 July 2021 — The Himalayan kingdom of _Bhutan_ has inoculated most of its eligible population with second doses of _COVID_-19 _vaccinations_ in just a week, in a ...


----------



## qldfrog (6 August 2021)

Garpal Gumnut said:


> REIT will all be rooned.
> 
> gg



Yeap seems probable, but the Reset would see them booming for the big corporates


----------



## qldfrog (6 August 2021)

qldfrog said:


> Yeap seems probable, but the Reset would see them booming for the big corporates



Basically as i see it, small shopping centers, retail street areas will be anihilated but you might see the gap filled by big corporate franchises style in the big westfield style centers...
All good for kmart, zara, etc and coffee clubs kfc macdos


----------



## divs4ever (6 August 2021)

have a look at the BWP report released two days back 

 some might notice SOME ex-Bunnings stores  are being leased  for other purposes 

 *** The directors of BWP Management Limited, the responsible entity for the BWP Trust (“the Trust”), today announced the results of the Trust for the 12 months to 30 June 2021. The Trust made good progress in improving Bunnings Warehouse properties and repositioning ex-Bunnings properties in the portfolio during the year. Upgrades were completed for the Croydon and Port Melbourne properties. The Port Macquarie property has been repositioned for large format retail and is now fully leased. A non-binding agreement has been entered into for the Cairns property to be utilised as a film studio, and the Trust has entered into an arrangement with the New South Wales State Government for the recently vacated Belmont North property to be used as a COVID-19 vaccination centre for up to two years. The re-zoning of the Belmont North property has recently been approved and work is underway to determine the best longer-term use for that property. The Midland property has been leased to a car dealership on expiry of the Bunnings lease in September 2021. Options to extend Bunnings leases were exercised for the Belmont, Caroline Springs, Cockburn, Fairfield Waters, Mount Gravatt, Pakenham, Smithfield, Wagga Wagga, Broadmeadows and Dubbo properties. ***


----------



## moXJO (1 March 2022)

Can't get anything. Building stuff is hard to get and bloody expensive. Went to fix some smaller stuff for my friends, can't find anything I need.


----------



## Humid (1 March 2022)

moXJO said:


> Can't get anything. Building stuff is hard to get and bloody expensive. Went to fix some smaller stuff for my friends, can't find anything I need.



Rocks and hammers?


----------



## qldfrog (1 March 2022)

moXJO said:


> Can't get anything. Building stuff is hard to get and bloody expensive. Went to fix some smaller stuff for my friends, can't find anything I need.



That obviously means inflation.
When you have to go to 2 supermarkets to fill a shopping list and still come back empty for some items.(3 weeks ago).,before the floods,just the covid mesures effect:
 you know something is VERY wrong.
I last experienced that in Hungary pre Berlin wall fall in the 1980s
Same causes, same consequences..only free market system works communism,bogus medical measures .or for oil CC bogus targets twist the system.
It's ok now we can blame Russia after COVID for all our issues.....
FWIW in Panama, not a first world country, i have not seen empty shelves so far in the main supermarkets.


----------



## moXJO (2 March 2022)

Humid said:


> Rocks and hammers?



Duct tape and silicon. Applied liberally.


----------



## moXJO (2 March 2022)

qldfrog said:


> That obviously means inflation.
> When you have to go to 2 supermarkets to fill a shopping list and still come back empty for some items.(3 weeks ago).,before the floods,just the covid mesures effect:
> you know something is VERY wrong.
> I last experienced that in Hungary pre Berlin wall fall in the 1980s
> ...



Specialist electronic goods also. I'm noticing stuff missing from supermarkets as well.
Was talking to a mechanic who was having trouble finding parts


----------



## JohnDe (2 March 2022)

moXJO said:


> Specialist electronic goods also. I'm noticing stuff missing from supermarkets as well.
> Was talking to a mechanic who was having trouble finding parts




I've heard that, haven't seen it. Unless trying to source parts from overseas using eBay, some mechanics do that, there are a few countries that have stopped certain parts leaving their shores.

There was a shortage of oil additives last year, causing a shortage of low viscosity engine oils and transmission fluids but that seems to have been resolved. Delivery times have increased significantly and freight prices have increased.


----------



## moXJO (2 March 2022)

Wonder if floods will impact food prices even more.


----------



## sptrawler (2 March 2022)

Well in W.A we haven't even recovered from the floods that cut the East/West link, the supermarket shelves are still half empty.
So any disruption will definitely impact us.


----------



## wayneL (2 March 2022)

sptrawler said:


> Well in W.A we haven't even recovered from the floods that cut the East/West link, the supermarket shelves are still half empty.
> So any disruption will definitely impact us.



The curious thing SP, is that Coles and Woolies are half empty, but all the independent grocers that I like to use are all chockers full of food.


----------



## sptrawler (2 March 2022)

wayneL said:


> The curious thing SP, is that Coles and Woolies are half empty, but all the independent grocers that I like to use are all chockers full of food.



So are Aldi, they obviously source more of their food locally, or the demand isn't their, but I think it is more the later.
Aldi gets trucks in very regular and the only items in short supply seem to be processed food, processed food production was closed down to a great extent in W.A 30 years ago  eg the Arnotts biscuit factory in Freo, the canneries in Albany and Manjimup when the multinationals bought them up and shut them down.


----------



## wayneL (2 March 2022)

sptrawler said:


> So are Aldi, they obviously source more of their food locally, or the demand isn't their, but I think it is more the later.
> Aldi gets trucks in very regular and the only items in short supply seem to be processed food, processed food production was closed down to a great extent in W.A 30 years ago  eg the Arnotts biscuit factory in Freo, the canneries in Albany and Manjimup when the multinationals bought them up and shut them down.



Yeah we get one or two things in Aldi and it always seems well supplied.

For our fresh stuff we use Gilbert's in Midland. Always plenty even now, excellent quality (way better than the majors) reasonable prices.


----------



## sptrawler (2 March 2022)

wayneL said:


> Yeah we get one or two things in Aldi and it always seems well supplied.
> 
> For our fresh stuff we use Gilbert's in Midland. Always plenty even now, excellent quality (way better than the majors) reasonable prices.



Gilberts always have great fruit, Willeton and Mandurah, just find them pricey. But you do get good produce.


----------



## wayneL (2 March 2022)

On a completely different note, in my area  of interest at least (Swan Valley acreage), I am noticing properties just starting to stick a bit.

As little as a month ago properties were selling within 7 days, now that it's been quite a few that have been hanging there for a month or two and end date sales are failing.

Absolutely no move down in prices whatsoever, but there is a noticeable change.

Even the real estate agents are getting just a little bit less farken arrogant.


----------



## Smurf1976 (2 March 2022)

moXJO said:


> I'm noticing stuff missing from supermarkets as well.



Same here.

Overall they're well stocked but there are product gaps definitely.

That's one form of inflation in practice. Can't buy the preferred item so have to buy a substitute that's more costly.


----------



## Gunnerguy (2 March 2022)

sptrawler said:


> Well in W.A we haven't even recovered from the floods that cut the East/West link, the supermarket shelves are still half empty.
> So any disruption will definitely impact us.



Yep can confirm that.
WA resident here and shelves .... 50% empty.
Ms Gunnerguy can’t get her Yoghurt 😫😫😫

Gunnerguy.


----------



## wayneL (7 March 2022)

I am buying chickens, dorper sheep vegetable seeds... Already have about a years supply of non perishables and potassium iodide, and a dray with two Clydesdales.

Any other suggestions apart from a Kalashnikov and 10000 rounds of 7.62 X 39?


----------



## Dona Ferentes (7 March 2022)

if you're still a participant in the 'cash' economy, one of those old fashioned credit card swipe machines and a supply of the triple carbon copy receipts. Others may not have barter or _specie.

(based on a view that decline will be graduated, and efforts will be made to maintain institutions - things are based on trust, still!!)_


----------



## StockyGuy (7 March 2022)

wayneL said:


> I am buying chickens, dorper sheep vegetable seeds... Already have about a years supply of non perishables and potassium iodide, and a dray with two Clydesdales.
> 
> Any other suggestions apart from a Kalashnikov and 10000 rounds of 7.62 X 39?




when you get your acreage, you gonna build your own underground bunker, bro?


----------



## JohnDe (7 March 2022)

wayneL said:


> On a completely different note, in my area  of interest at least (Swan Valley acreage), I am noticing properties just starting to stick a bit.
> 
> As little as a month ago properties were selling within 7 days, now that it's been quite a few that have been hanging there for a month or two and end date sales are failing.
> 
> ...




Starting to notice the same. I’m wondering if it will continue, or reverse with the fear of traveling to Europe.


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## qldfrog (7 March 2022)

StockyGuy said:


> when you get your acreage, you gonna build your own underground bunker, bro?



Mine will be called a fire bunker or a wine cave..based on what you need more, or both..what better way to wait for the fire front to pass destroying your home, than going thru your SA shiraz collection...


----------



## sptrawler (7 March 2022)

wayneL said:


> I am buying chickens, dorper sheep vegetable seeds... Already have about a years supply of non perishables and potassium iodide, and a dray with two Clydesdales.
> 
> Any other suggestions apart from a Kalashnikov and 10000 rounds of 7.62 X 39?



A home brew kit would be a winner.


----------



## Smurf1976 (7 March 2022)

One problem is becoming actually being able to buy things.

Went to Bunnings this evening to buy two items I wanted urgently, and another six that have been on the list for whenever I next went there (which isn't very often).

Bottom line is of 8 items:

4 of them I got what I wanted.

1 they had alternative similar products but I wanted one identical to match an existing. No go there.

3 simply out of stock and with no equivalent items available. This includes both of the items I actually need.

I'll now go online or try other shops but overall buying things seems to be getting harder. Shelves in shops aren't bare but I'm finding that oh yeah, we've got every size except the one you want or we've got the product but only one brand whereas there used to be 3. etc.


----------



## StockyGuy (7 March 2022)

Smurf1976 said:


> One problem is becoming actually being able to buy things.
> 
> Went to Bunnings this evening to buy two items I wanted urgently, and another six that have been on the list for whenever I next went there (which isn't very often).
> 
> ...




I'm sure you know you can, and you possibly did it, but I always check item availability in the Bunnings store I'm going to online first.  Since I'm usually only getting one thing I don't wanna waste the trip.


----------



## sptrawler (7 March 2022)

Smurf1976 said:


> One problem is becoming actually being able to buy things.
> 
> Went to Bunnings this evening to buy two items I wanted urgently, and another six that have been on the list for whenever I next went there (which isn't very often).
> 
> ...



If China want to put the squeeze on us, it would be extremely easy, 90% of the whitegoods and fittings are Chinese, they all need spares.


----------



## wayneL (7 March 2022)

StockyGuy said:


> when you get your acreage, you gonna build your own underground bunker, bro?



Well, did a deal today. Happy as a pig in mud.

Might reno the house first


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## wayneL (7 March 2022)

sptrawler said:


> A home brew kit would be a winner.



We've just bought across the road from a winery... Might be able to do a contra deal, bottles of woobla in exchange for shoeing their Clydesdale


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## Smurf1976 (8 March 2022)

StockyGuy said:


> I'm sure you know you can, and you possibly did it, but I always check item availability in the Bunnings store I'm going to online first.



I didn't check to be fair - but then historically there’s been no real need, things were just in stock, but the world’s changed......


----------



## Garpal Gumnut (8 March 2022)

wayneL said:


> I am buying chickens, dorper sheep vegetable seeds... Already have about a years supply of non perishables and potassium iodide, and a dray with two Clydesdales.
> 
> Any other suggestions apart from a Kalashnikov and 10000 rounds of 7.62 X 39?



Duct tape.

gg


----------



## sptrawler (8 March 2022)

Garpal Gumnut said:


> Duct tape.
> 
> gg


----------



## wayneL (8 March 2022)

Garpal Gumnut said:


> Duct tape.
> 
> gg



Yes! Got boxes of the stuff already though lol. I use tons of the stuff. Bailing string and tie wire too 

I also carry for my work, casting tape, and polyurethane and acrylic glues. Half of the stuff in my house and my work truck is held together with that stuff


----------



## frugal.rock (8 March 2022)

Haven't been able to find polish dill cucumbers for a while.
Haven't exhausted all options yet, but they are a ways off and would have to beceopen when going past.
Only see made in India stuff now.
Don't want to try those. 
Polskie Ogorky all the way...


----------



## moXJO (8 March 2022)

Expecting oil prices to make it even harder on supply chains now and in coming months.


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## Smurf1976 (8 March 2022)

Another two hardware stores visited today. Bought two items as needed and found an acceptable substitute for another. Now only one on the list. 

That said, I did buy the last stock of one item and that was from the second store so for some items there isn't a huge amount of stock around.


----------



## moXJO (9 March 2022)

Solar guys are finding certain components hard to find.


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## wayneL (9 March 2022)

moXJO said:


> Solar guys are finding certain components hard to find.



I keep expecting the same in my caper.
It's been pretty good *so far*. There have been price rises though.


----------



## moXJO (3 April 2022)

Haven't been checking $AUD but given we are in a commodity golden zone, I wonder if our $ will hit parity with the US again?


----------



## qldfrog (4 April 2022)

moXJO said:


> Haven't been checking $AUD but given we are in a commodity golden zone, I wonder if our $ will hit parity with the US again?



While i am not impressed with our country management and psyche, as the US is imho on the brink of collapse with hyperinflation and USD destruction, i see some advantages to the AUD and CAD.
 so that coming period of world misery with food, energy and commodities shortage and geopolitical swing might benefit us.
Will still take some of these RE gains  OS to spread risks but we might end up better than many others in he west.Still a lot of pain ahead.
Can anyone believe it, Frog is nearly positive 😂🤣


----------



## moXJO (2 May 2022)

Shops are full. Not sure if everyone is just walking around though as the register lines don't seem to be crowded. 

But carparks are at capacity. Some restaurants packed, others empty. Seems like 'selective spending' going on and people enjoying being out and about. 

Must be the third or fourth weekend I've noticed it.


----------



## divs4ever (2 May 2022)

the full shops i notice are the pharmacies , but it is flu season , probably no surprise there 

lines at the checkouts are nothing special (  neither super high or low )
 i DO notice some lines missing ( not currently in stock , not just slack staff )

 maybe it is just the local shopping complex i visit most often 

 several eateries have changed management  or closed ( permanently ?? ) arguably  more empty shops   but that landlord is very fussy  who he leases to  (have to be the right type of business ) and is prepared to WAIT


----------



## moXJO (4 May 2022)

Heaps of people have a large sum saved.
I saw a media quoted figure of about $260 billion. Probably more under mattresses. 

It's eventually going to pour into something.


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## divs4ever (4 May 2022)

moXJO said:


> Heaps of people have a large sum saved.
> I saw a media quoted figure of about $260 billion. Probably more under mattresses.
> 
> It's eventually going to pour into something.



am looking and looking  but than my cash stash  is way under one billion

 under one million as well


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## againsthegrain (4 May 2022)

divs4ever said:


> am looking and looking  but than my cash stash  is way under one billion
> 
> under one million as well




The usual aus statistics 7/10 have 200 bux and credit card debt 3/10 have 900k.. hey you guys are doing pretty well you all have 270k median between each other


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## moXJO (12 May 2022)

Shipping containers are at $20000 
That's (apparently) quadruple the price from a year ago. Huge amounts of product lines have stopped shipping to Australia. It's no longer viable.

A few specialist shops I've been to are running low on stock.


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## divs4ever (13 May 2022)

againsthegrain said:


> The usual aus statistics 7/10 have 200 bux and credit card debt 3/10 have 900k.. hey you guys are doing pretty well you all have 270k median between each other



 well mine came from luck ( unexpected inheritance ) the only real wisdom   was resisting the urge to spend the windfall on expensive toys


----------



## qldfrog (16 May 2022)

Yesterday shopping trip to Coles after being marooned on our highlands by flood and relentless rain.
We looked for mince, and having our own cattle, something different.
Discovered that the whole kangaroo meat area had been emptied....
This is the cheapest red meat left and was clearly out of stock.i doubt it is a supply issue as rain just recently hit.
I have the feeling that people just can not or resist buying meat at 30-40$ a kg..for themselves or their dog.
Just noticed fish is now cheaper than most meat.even chicken prices are uo..not to mention 8$ tomatoes or yesterday $5 lettuce.
We will have and iwe nothing..but not sure we will be happy...


----------



## moXJO (31 May 2022)

Lettuce has taken a hit. The rain has ruined the crop or something. Sign at the local burger place and woolies. Woolies overall didn't have a lot of fruit and vegetables. 

Local fruit market is struggling with some lines as well.


----------



## divs4ever (31 May 2022)

in Queensland  truck-drivers  ( taking supplies to the fruit-markets ) are  short in supply as well  that MIGHT be part of the problem


----------



## JohnDe (1 June 2022)

Anyone looking for a job with good pay - 

_.....veteran publican Arthur Laundy said the lack of hospitality staff was the worst he had seen in more than 60 years in an industry where he had built up a portfolio of pubs, resorts and hotels on the eastern seaboard with a focus on NSW._​​_“I have never seen anything like this in my life,” he said._​​_“Recruiting agencies are ringing hotels offering staff 10 per cent pay increases, they are poaching staff, it’s a fiasco, I have never seen anything like this.’’_​​_Mr Laundy just forked out $43,000 to an agency to bring in nine chefs from Nepal and the Pacific Islands to help staff his growing empire._​


> *Pub owners say labour shortages are hitting the booming sector*
> 
> Justin Hemmes’ behemoth hospitality empire has revealed trading has collapsed 20 per cent given his pubs are short 1000 staff, while another billionaire publican, Arthur Laundy, who has operated in the industry for more than 60 years, says staff shortages have never been this bad.
> 
> ...


----------



## divs4ever (1 June 2022)

nope , am on a disability pension now 

 and even with a 10% rate hike  i wouldn't be lured into that industry , again , there are better jobs at reasonable hours elsewhere 

 the industry crippled itself in the 1980's.


----------



## JohnDe (1 June 2022)

divs4ever said:


> nope , am on a disability pension now
> 
> and even with a 10% rate hike  i wouldn't be lured into that industry , again , there are better jobs at reasonable hours elsewhere
> 
> the industry crippled itself in the 1980's.




There's always something better, but not a bad gig for others "_full time waiters and bar staff were paid $60,000 a year plus tips and chefs earn above award rate_s"


----------



## againsthegrain (1 June 2022)

I guess if it was great pay there wouldn't be a shortage, maybe 60k is not good considered with today's cost of life and inflation


----------



## JohnDe (1 June 2022)

againsthegrain said:


> I guess if it was great pay there wouldn't be a shortage, maybe 60k is not good considered with today's cost of life and inflation




That could be the problem; people thinking that the pay is too low, so they stay longer at University or wait at home until the right job comes.

Then again, it could be that there is just not enough people to fill positions. Maybe due to the slow return of overseas Uni students and back packers that would normally fill a lot of those roles.

I wonder how many consumers will be willing to pay $55 each for a pub schnitzel meal and $11 for a standard beer, so that staff can get paid $75,000+ per year?

_“Recruiting agencies are ringing hotels offering staff 10 per cent pay increases, they are poaching staff, it’s a fiasco, I have never seen anything like this.’’_​


----------



## againsthegrain (1 June 2022)

JohnDe said:


> That could be the problem; people thinking that the pay is too low, so they stay longer at University or wait at home until the right job comes.
> 
> Then again, it could be that there is just not enough people to fill positions. Maybe due to the slow return of overseas Uni students and back packers that would normally fill a lot of those roles.
> 
> ...




Think the problem with this is, if your a business and you rely on os underpaid backpackers for labour your doing something wrong.

Of course consumers wouldn't be willing to pay 55bux for a frozen snitchell,  the natural market forces would take care of that.  Somebody would find a way to pay local staff more, pay themselves less and charge the consumer just right.


----------



## JohnDe (1 June 2022)

againsthegrain said:


> Think the problem with this is, if your a business and you rely on os underpaid backpackers for labour your doing something wrong.
> 
> Of course consumers wouldn't be willing to pay 55bux for a frozen snitchell,  the natural market forces would take care of that.  Somebody would find a way to pay local staff more, pay themselves less and charge the consumer just right.




that could also be the case. However, if we looked deeper we might find that there has not been enough staff from our own citizenry because of the first world problem of low birth rates. the same reason that Robert Menzies opened up the country to overseas workers with cheap transport, accommodation and less paperwork.

You and your friends may be willing to pay $55 for a schnity, I know many that will not or can not. Which brings another problem - a pub with highly paid staff, high prices to cover all the overheads and make a profit, but not enough customers able to pay.

Viscous circle, that usually only a business owner can understand.


----------



## sptrawler (1 June 2022)

againsthegrain said:


> Think the problem with this is, if your a business and you rely on os underpaid backpackers for labour your doing something wrong.
> 
> Of course consumers wouldn't be willing to pay 55bux for a frozen snitchell,  the natural market forces would take care of that.  Somebody would find a way to pay local staff more, pay themselves less and charge the consumer just right.



Tradies over here in W.A seem to be working on $1,000 per day, when they quote on jobs. 
I'm on the council of owners in a block of units, someone planted a shrub next to the fence and it broke four rows of bricks and pushed the fence on a lean, the quotes to remove and replace the bricks and straighten the fence ranged from $20k down to $2,400.


----------



## againsthegrain (1 June 2022)

JohnDe said:


> that could also be the case. However, if we looked deeper we might find that there has not been enough staff from our own citizenry because of the first world problem of low birth rates. the same reason that Robert Menzies opened up the country to overseas workers with cheap transport, accommodation and less paperwork.
> 
> You and your friends may be willing to pay $55 for a schnity, I know many that will not or can not. Which brings another problem - a pub with highly paid staff, high prices to cover all the overheads and make a profit, but not enough customers able to pay.
> 
> Viscous circle, that usually only a business owner can understand.




Can't argue with that, all valid points.
However know from personal experience there is 2 types of business owners:
1. Thinks owning a business is guaranteed profits and takes care of itself with minimal input. 
2. Somebody that is willing to work 50+ hours on the floor if needed and make it happen.

I know which of the 2 will survive.

p.s I only pay 55 for a snitchell when backed into a corner by my wife and have no choice, otherwise I prefer home cooked food.


----------



## againsthegrain (1 June 2022)

sptrawler said:


> Tradies over here in W.A seem to be working on $1,000 per day, when they quote on jobs.
> I'm on the council of owners in a block of units, someone planted a shrub next to the fence and it broke four rows of bricks and pushed the fence on a lean, the quotes to remove and replace the bricks and straighten the fence ranged from $20k down to $2,400.




Yeah that's what I mean, when you put 1 dirty job next to another. Well maybe not dirty but physical id much rather be a tradie then a waiter.  Personally I think hospitality is just as physically demanding if not more then tradies.
Another thing to note is, if your a Tradie and do a sht job as you said its basically arghh bad luck mate.. maybe somebody will come back next week.
If your a waiter and u spill a double mocka soy cappuccino.. your fried


----------



## moXJO (3 June 2022)

sptrawler said:


> Tradies over here in W.A seem to be working on $1,000 per day, when they quote on jobs.
> I'm on the council of owners in a block of units, someone planted a shrub next to the fence and it broke four rows of bricks and pushed the fence on a lean, the quotes to remove and replace the bricks and straighten the fence ranged from $20k down to $2,400.



The high quotes are the guys that don't want it. Unless you accept their "lotto win" quote.
Everyone is time stretched and its costing. Material is probably up 200% from 2019.


----------



## moXJO (3 June 2022)

Bunnings gas been very quiet and timber is back. I'm assuming that building is slowing.


----------



## Dona Ferentes (3 June 2022)

The other factor in the mix, now the economy is kick-starting again:




> “There are 500,000 fewer temporary migrants and half as many international students in Australia now, compared with 2019”​



_- Ross McEwan, CEO, National Australia Bank Ltd_​
*CEO Insights - *​


----------



## Smurf1976 (3 June 2022)

JohnDe said:


> Which brings another problem - a pub with highly paid staff, high prices to cover all the overheads and make a profit, but not enough customers able to pay.



A problem that applies to many industries but which seems to be missed by most of the public.

Live entertainment is one example. Charge too much and it simply leads to fewer tickets being sold. There's a limit to how much revenue a show can earn due to that aspect of it. Plus the added problem that a half full venue looks bad for everyone.

Energy industry much the same. Put the price up and manufacturing closes permanently.

Lots more like that where higher costs simply can't be passed through without killing the whole thing.


----------



## moXJO (3 June 2022)

moXJO said:


> Bunnings gas been very quiet and timber is back. I'm assuming that building is slowing.



Gas=has


----------



## wayneL (3 June 2022)

moXJO said:


> The high quotes are the guys that don't want it. Unless you accept their "lotto win" quote.
> Everyone is time stretched and its costing. Material is probably up 200% from 2019.



It's like when someone rings up with a Clydesdale... It's 2 1/2 times a normal riding horse because nobody wants to do them.


----------



## frugal.rock (3 June 2022)

We used to eat out once or twice a week before the government's enacted social controls.

Now, not so much.
Prices are restrictive, and, well, we just don't get out like that as much anymore.

I remember about 5 years ago, the cuts to retail staff (amongst others) overtime and penalty pay rates in NSW.
The industry made their own bed quite some time ago by accepting and pushing for it.


----------



## moXJO (27 June 2022)

Cheap sht goods seem to be back in stock in kmart. Namely the fitness equipment. Bunnings seems to be stocked.  So maybe the flow of cheap goods is easing.

However, popular goods are still a pain to get. Electronics etc isn't easy to find.

Woolies stores seem to be struggling to keep shelves stacked. Toilet paper has disappeared again as well.
Coles seem to be better stocked.


----------



## JohnDe (27 June 2022)

No stock issues at my locals, near work & home.

Yesterday I went to Costco and all the shelves were full, so was the carpark, the place was overflowing. Did the bulk of my shopping food shopping there, good savings. 

After lunch went to my local green grocer and picked up a bunch of vegetables. Stuck to the cheaper stuff - broccoli, spinach, eggplants, and so on. Green string beans (my favourite) I left behind at $33/kg. Lettuce was $6.99 each.

Which Woolies have empty shelves?


----------



## dyna (27 June 2022)

Saw a $2.99 lettuce, but I'm too cheap to pay, even that much.
Got a marked down cabbage for 60 cents, instead . ( It was $12 )

Jeebus. Who in their right mind pays 12 bucks for a freakin' cabbage?


----------



## moXJO (27 June 2022)

JohnDe said:


> Which Woolies have empty shelves?



South Sydney way.
They seem to be having logistics problems.

Another thing is worker shortages, younger workers especially. Noticing a lot of 35+ working at maccas. Can't get food delivery, shortages of users.


----------



## Smurf1976 (27 June 2022)

JohnDe said:


> No stock issues at my locals, near work & home.



Only issues I've had lately is I noticed the freezers looked pretty empty at Aldi the last time I was there, quite a few items out of stock, and hardware it's still hard to get specific items.


----------



## sptrawler (27 June 2022)

Smurf1976 said:


> Only issues I've had lately is I noticed the freezers looked pretty empty at Aldi the last time I was there, quite a few items out of stock, and hardware it's still hard to get specific items.



Over here in the West, Aldi is fairly new, but I must say they are certainly increasing their clientele, they are getting busier and busier.
Hopefully it is because they are actually a more efficient supermarket and not because they are new and trying to attract customers.


----------



## Smurf1976 (27 June 2022)

sptrawler said:


> Over here in the West, Aldi is fairly new, but I must say they are certainly increasing their clientele, they are getting busier and busier.
> Hopefully it is because they are actually a more efficient supermarket and not because they are new and trying to attract customers.



I don't know the history elsewhere, they were already well established in SA when I moved here, but I do still find some amusement that it's the only shop where one could possibly buy a frozen meat pie and a chainsaw in the same transaction.


----------



## qldfrog (28 June 2022)

Smurf1976 said:


> I don't know the history elsewhere, they were already well established in SA when I moved here, but I do still find some amusement that it's the only shop where one could possibly buy a frozen meat pie and a chainsaw in the same transaction.



That's the European style
You could go in a Carrefour "hypermarket" and get a teeshirt,boots, biscuits, frozen fries and meat,vegetables and cheese before buying your fridge or tv,wine,vodka,the latest Pulitzer book and some extra ammos for your hunting gun....not sure about the guns and ammos nowadays but was there when i was a teenager...
Not need to say crime was low..but the population was not the same


----------



## sptrawler (28 June 2022)

qldfrog said:


> That's the European style
> You could go in a Carrefour "hypermarket" and get a teeshirt,boots, biscuits, frozen fries and meat,vegetables and cheese before buying your fridge or tv,wine,vodka,the latest Pulitzer book and some extra ammos for your hunting gun....not sure about the guns and ammos nowadays but was there when i was a teenager...
> Not need to say crime was low..but the population was not the same



The large supermarkets in France were amazing as you say, you can buy anything, it is like a Bunnings, Woolworths, KMart, Supercheap Autos, BWS and a fast food joint all rolled into one, they even had motor bike gear.
Another one was E.Leclerc, it and Carrefour were real one stop shops.


----------



## mullokintyre (28 June 2022)

sptrawler said:


> The large supermarkets in France were amazing as you say, you can buy anything, it is like a Bunnings, Woolworths, KMart, Supercheap Autos, BWS and a fast food joint all rolled into one, they even had motor bike gear.
> Another one was E.Leclerc, it and Carrefour were real one stop shops.



Similar to Walmart in the USA, instead of the ole "do you want fries with that", its do you want ammo with that..
And to top it off, there are all those weird photo memes about the weird (to everyone else) shoppers in walmart.
Loved going to Walmart, its just a microcosm the USA in general.
Mick


----------



## moXJO (30 June 2022)

Interesting thing last night when I went out to eat. Every restaurant was full. Which seemed weird for a Wednesday.

My theory is that groceries are so expensive, that it's cheaper to eat the specials at restaurants.


----------



## Dona Ferentes (30 June 2022)

moXJO said:


> Interesting thing last night when I went out to eat. Every restaurant was full. Which seemed weird for a Wednesday.



The RBA will be watching closely for signs of ‘overeating’


----------



## wayneL (30 June 2022)

At a clients today, professional couple, engineer/accountant. Spent 10 years saving a deposit and in their words still had to get a humongous mortgage.

They are about to spend about 30 grand on an item they actually quite need, but their fixed term mortgage at 1.9% is about to expire and the best fixed term they are going to be able to get is well north of 4%.

Guess what's happening to the 30k spend? 

Ain't happening.

I'm hearing similar stories of belt tightening, deferred expenditures and whatnot.

That said, confirming @moXJO's observation, the Rose and Crown was chock-a-block on Saturday night. Busier than I've seen it for a fair while now.


----------



## Dona Ferentes (30 June 2022)

wayneL said:


> but their fixed term mortgage at 1.9% is about to expire and the best fixed term they are going to be able to get is well north of 4%.



Big problem for lots of people.
Today CBA lifted fixed rates by 1.40% across the board

EDIT
*

*


Out and about this morning, roads absolutely jammed. Petrol at 223c a litre, and the discounting seems to have evaporated; even the 'independents' offering only a cent or two  less.


----------



## Garpal Gumnut (30 June 2022)

Dona Ferentes said:


> The RBA will be watching closely for signs of ‘overeating’





wayneL said:


> At a clients today, professional couple, engineer/accountant. Spent 10 years saving a deposit and in their words still had to get a humongous mortgage.
> 
> They are about to spend about 30 grand on an item they actually quite need, but their fixed term mortgage at 1.9% is about to expire and the best fixed term they are going to be able to get is well north of 4%.
> 
> ...






Dona Ferentes said:


> Big problem for lots of people.
> 
> Out and about this morning, roads absolutely jammed. Petrol at 223c a litre, and the discounting seems to have evaporated; even the 'independents' offering only a cent or two  less.



I was out this am, ( accompanied pass ) and went to Coles, KMart and a Coffee shop. I did a rekkie on all three and interviewed staff. 

All were busy. 

Comments : " It's always busy school holidays " " Sorry can't talk, too busy" " Busy " " We need staff, sorry can't chat "

gg


----------



## wayneL (30 June 2022)

Garpal Gumnut said:


> sorry can't chat



It's what I love about my job, I've got an hour for each horse of subtle interrogation.

It's chat for them but for me valuable information... While I'm getting paid.

Most information is to be discarded, 
 but sometimes there are some diamonds gleaned.


----------



## qldfrog (30 June 2022)

Some intersecting feedback from a dog breeder Dalmatian.
Not a factory farm style.
Price for puppies have fallen sharply .nearly  by a 3rd in the last quarter.
Seems people have to cut doscretionary..big.. expenses


----------



## moXJO (30 June 2022)

moXJO said:


> Interesting thing last night when I went out to eat. Every restaurant was full. Which seemed weird for a Wednesday.
> 
> My theory is that groceries are so expensive, that it's cheaper to eat the specials at restaurants.



Ok so the "dine and discover" vouchers are about to run out, today actually.  I'll see if the restaurants are still packed the next few days.


----------



## moXJO (18 July 2022)

Every shopping centres carparks seem to be packed. Yet the actual retail shops never seem to have anyone in them. 

Bunnings was dead. Normally see a bunch of Ute's out the back, but I was the only car there. Talking to the guy at the gate and he said it's turned quiet. 

There's not enough employees.  Fruit market all have 35+ yo women at the registers. There's a massive shortage of workers right now with some shops having to shut down.

It's reassuring that there's plenty of jobs around though. Hopefully Labor won't open the floodgates


----------



## Dona Ferentes (18 July 2022)

Easy to get a park at local high street, today (I usually walk)

And I've (re)started paying cash at '_point of purchase_'. Which surprises a few people.


----------



## Smurf1976 (18 July 2022)

moXJO said:


> Every shopping centres carparks seem to be packed. Yet the actual retail shops never seem to have anyone in them.



Funny you should say that, I noticed this exact thing today.

Car park at the local shops was just about full.

Walking around the supermarket it wasn't empty but it sure wasn't busy and nor did the other shops look to be overly busy.

I don't know for sure but looking at that and noting staffing issues, my guess is that management have done away with any rules they might previously have had about staff parking in the customers' car park and so what you're seeing is a car for every employee.


----------



## moXJO (18 July 2022)

Smurf1976 said:


> Funny you should say that, I noticed this exact thing today.
> 
> Car park at the local shops was just about full.
> 
> ...



Similar thing on Thursday night shopping. Roads, parking spots, car parks were jammed packed. Literally traffic jams. Shops were relatively quiet.

Restaurants seem to be doing a roaring trade though.


----------



## moXJO (18 July 2022)

Dona Ferentes said:


> And I've (re)started paying cash at '_point of purchase_'. Which surprises a few people.



I'm too 'tap happy' with my card. At least with cash I know how much I've spent or the maximum I will spend.


----------



## Captain_Chaza (18 July 2022)

Smurf1976 said:


> Funny you should say that, I noticed this exact thing today.
> 
> Car park at the local shops was just about full.
> 
> ...



But Smurf (born in 1976)
Don't confuse The Economy with The Share Market
That's like Comparing Apples with Oranges


	

		
			
		

		
	
They are very different!


----------



## wayneL (18 July 2022)

moXJO said:


> I'm too 'tap happy' with my card. At least with cash I know how much I've spent or the maximum I will spend.





Dona Ferentes said:


> And I've (re)started paying cash at '_point of purchase_'. Which surprises a few people.




I pay cash as much as possible. Like Mo I can be a bit tap happy with the card, but it's also a bit of a principle thing with me too.

The old use it or lose it.

Additionally, anywhere that refuses to take cash, loses me forever.


----------



## Dona Ferentes (18 July 2022)

wayneL said:


> Additionally, anywhere that refuses to take cash, loses me forever.



an admirable principle. Which also applies to those that will accept cash, and cash *alone*.

My pet grieve is the hidden 'charges apply' nonsense. Legally it must be disclosed, but subterfuge is often employed. Every transaction has a cost. Holding cash, handling cash comes at no cost? (yes I know about Merchant fees.)


----------



## JohnDe (19 July 2022)

Dona Ferentes said:


> an admirable principle. Which also applies to those that will accept cash, and cash *alone*.
> 
> My pet grieve is the hidden 'charges apply' nonsense. Legally it must be disclosed, but subterfuge is often employed. Every transaction has a cost. Holding cash, handling cash comes at no cost? (yes I know about Merchant fees.)




Merchant and bank fees, why is it that those fees are applied to debit and credit cards?

Why do banks take 24 hours to transfer money?

Users are now accustomed to paying with a card and accepting the hidden fee (most businesses find it easier to just add the cost into the service). Just like most of the BNPL mob, the user thinks that they get something for free, they don't realise the supplier of goods and service pays a fee for them to BNPL. A added cost that must be paid down the line somewhere.

All these small fees and user charges keep piling up and get added to product or service that the consumer buys, and most don't even know.


----------



## Belli (19 July 2022)

Dona Ferentes said:


> Easy to get a park at local high street, today (I usually walk)
> 
> And I've (re)started paying cash at '_point of purchase_'. Which surprises a few people.




Good to know I am not alone in using actual cash as opposed to waving a bit of plastic around.


----------



## macca (19 July 2022)

wayneL said:


> I pay cash as much as possible. Like Mo I can be a bit tap happy with the card, but it's also a bit of a principle thing with me too.
> 
> The old use it or lose it.
> 
> Additionally, anywhere that refuses to take cash, loses me forever.




If everyone starts to use cards all the time it would not be long before Govts ceased to create Cash as it is quite expensive to produce in a safe way.

If we go Ecash what happens when the sun don't shine and the wind don't blow, a local blackout makes it very plain that no power in Todays world, means no food or fuel as the shops cannot operate their tills.

It also would mean that any Govt could freeze all of someones assets for any reason. 

It could mean that anyone who has not had the latest cocktail of unproven drugs for the latest lab created bug injected into their arm cannot buy food.


----------



## againsthegrain (19 July 2022)

macca said:


> If everyone starts to use cards all the time it would not be long before Govts ceased to create Cash as it is quite expensive to produce in a safe way.
> 
> If we go Ecash what happens when the sun don't shine and the wind don't blow, a local blackout makes it very plain that no power in Todays world, means no food or fuel as the shops cannot operate their tills.
> 
> ...




What happens when you go for a holiday or even out of town for a few days and your card gets skimmed and you have to cancel it, no local branch and/or replacement in mail


----------



## Belli (19 July 2022)

againsthegrain said:


> What happens when you go for a holiday or even out of town for a few days and your card gets skimmed and you have to cancel it, no local branch and/or replacement in mail




When I travel, which I will do in the not too distant future, I take two debit cards loaded with the necessary funds just in case one is blocked or lost plus carry some cash to the level it allows for maybe a tank of petrol, some food and cheapo overnight accommodation - although I will sleep in the car if push comes to shove.  Depends too where the travel is involved say Canberra - Melbourne and for how long.

Those debit cards are only liked to my main account to the extent I can transfer funds between them.  Essentially leave little on those cards on return.  Pay for a coffee, sandwich and parking sort of amounts.

Don't have any of those fancy do da payway apps on my phone.  Simply not my thing.

I have had a card blocked by a bank when I used it in Canberra in the morning and then in Melbourne late at night.  Rang its 24/7 line and it was fixed.


----------



## qldfrog (19 July 2022)

Belli said:


> When I travel, which I will do in the not too distant future, I take two debit cards loaded with the necessary funds just in case one is blocked or lost plus carry some cash to the level it allows for maybe a tank of petrol, some food and cheapo overnight accommodation - although I will sleep in the car if push comes to shove.  Depends too where the travel is involved say Canberra - Melbourne and for how long.
> 
> Those debit cards are only liked to my main account to the extent I can transfer funds between them.  Essentially leave little on those cards on return.  Pay for a coffee, sandwich and parking sort of amounts.
> 
> ...



These issues take a different dimension if your aussie card gets swallowed/stolen O/S while in transit or on the move..and bad luck if it is on a friday🥴
Travellers cheques were once a solution but are no more, so carry 5k in notes on you in Paris metro, or the Marrakech souk...or..better have heaps of cards from different providers split among the travelling group, and internet access to increase balances


----------



## Dona Ferentes (26 July 2022)

another property developer collapse

_Melbourne developer Caydon Property Group, whose projects include the redevelopment of the Nyles site, has collapsed. __Secured assets now under the control of receivers includes completed residential and commercial property, sites under development and land holdings._

_Two Caydon projects under construction, HOME in Alphington and Due North in Preston, were not impacted by the appointments and remain fully funded to continue through to completion and settlement, the receivers said._



> Caydon blamed the “prolonged COVID-19 lockdowns in Melbourne, accelerating construction cost pressures, supply chain interruptions, and interest rate pressures coupled with a negative house price sentiment” on its decision to appoint a liquidator.


----------



## JohnDe (26 July 2022)

Dona Ferentes said:


> another property developer collapse
> 
> _Melbourne developer Caydon Property Group, whose projects include the redevelopment of the Nyles site, has collapsed. __Secured assets now under the control of receivers includes completed residential and commercial property, sites under development and land holdings._
> 
> _Two Caydon projects under construction, HOME in Alphington and Due North in Preston, were not impacted by the appointments and remain fully funded to continue through to completion and settlement, the receivers said._




The business collapses, while the directors clear the slate and come back under a new entity.


----------



## SirRumpole (26 July 2022)

Australians should work for $2 a day says Australia's richest woman.









						Rinehart issues labour warning to Aussies
					

Gina Rinehart uses a rare video appearance to say Australians need to work harder to compete with Africans who labour for less than $2 a day.




					www.abc.net.au


----------



## Smurf1976 (26 July 2022)

macca said:


> a local blackout makes it very plain that no power in Todays world, means no food or fuel as the shops cannot operate their tills.



Cash doesn’t fix that.

Power off = prety much all businesses close and won’t accept any payment including cash. Many simply can’t process a sale.


----------



## JohnDe (26 July 2022)

SirRumpole said:


> Australians should work for $2 a day says Australia's richest woman.
> 
> 
> 
> ...




10 years ago 

Wednesday 5 Sep 2012 at 9:37am, updated Wed 5 Sep 2012 at 2:26pm


----------



## SirRumpole (26 July 2022)

JohnDe said:


> 10 years ago
> 
> Wednesday 5 Sep 2012 at 9:37am, updated Wed 5 Sep 2012 at 2:26pm



Well spotted, I didn't.


----------



## macca (26 July 2022)

Smurf1976 said:


> Cash doesn’t fix that.
> 
> Power off = prety much all businesses close and won’t accept any payment including cash. Many simply can’t process a sale.




For majors you are right but I suspect that quite few owner operators would be writing receipts by hand for payments in cash if the power kept failing during a spell of wet weather


----------



## moXJO (27 July 2022)

Woolies seemed to have a lot of stuff with half price sales. 
Been a while since I've seen certain products together like that.

Rates possibly impacting sales


----------



## redsmartie (27 July 2022)

moXJO said:


> Woolies seemed to have a lot of stuff with half price sales.
> Been a while since I've seen certain products together like that.
> 
> Rates possibly impacting sales



Same here, I went to a Woolies further away from my normal shop just after the midday inflation news. Place was emptyish with the few people scouring the shelves for specials. I saved 12% and another 1% saved on the rewards card.

Clearing old stock?


----------



## divs4ever (27 July 2022)

macca said:


> For majors you are right but I suspect that quite few owner operators would be writing receipts by hand for payments in cash if the power kept failing during a spell of wet weather



 LOL

 things must have changed in ( small ) retail world   some small shops LOVED cash ( especially if no receipts were required )

 one tax audit team  had to guess  the revenue based on plastic bag consumption


----------



## frugal.rock (27 July 2022)

SirRumpole said:


> Australians should work for $2 a day says Australia's richest woman.



So about $3 a day now then eh?

I reckon Australia's richest woman likes slave labour...


----------



## bux2000 (28 July 2022)

frugal.rock said:


> So about $3 a day now then eh?




If only   

bux


----------



## Dona Ferentes (29 July 2022)

*Construction & Infrastructure*​


> “I think we’re at the start of that reversal on pressure when it comes to skills and capabilities to go and build a new mine”​



- _Andrew Cole, CEO, OZ Minerals Ltd_​


> “There's something like $200 billion to $250 billion of infrastructure projects that are on the slate in Australia, typically in and around major cities. Look at that specialised labour, [saying am I] going to fly in and fly out for a mine site…or am I going to go and work on this bridge or this freeway extension, I think you're seeing that play out across the world in different places”​



- _Thomas Palmer, CEO, Newmont Corporation [world’s largest gold company]_



> “It’s going to take an enormous amount of capital and focus to undertake the [renewables] transition”​



_David Griffin, CEO, Sun Cable [world’s largest solar energy infrastructure development]_


----------



## SirRumpole (2 August 2022)

The sad state of the Australian construction industry.









						More building companies to 'topple over', as display home giant Metricon sheds staff to survive
					

One of the nation's most prominent home builders is set to shed almost a tenth of its workforce, as concerns continue about Australia's construction industry.




					www.abc.net.au


----------



## frugal.rock (2 August 2022)

SirRumpole said:


> The sad state of the Australian construction industry.



I have personally noticed a distinct easing in new home starts over the last month or so, and a slow down in  all other pre activities that  would indicate a new home or major Reno/ extension also. Sydney/NSW area.
Not talking Metricon.

Should point out though, that seasonally it would be a bit slow at this time of the year, being start of a new financial year, but, not as slow as it is.

Having said it's slow, it's actually a scramble out there to get existing sites completed as fast as possible, for obvious reasons I would hope.


----------



## SirRumpole (3 August 2022)

I decided to 'treat' myself to a Subway roll today. I last bought one about 6 months ago for $9.75, today it was $17.60.

By my calculation that's an inflation rate of about 200% pa !


----------



## divs4ever (3 August 2022)

SirRumpole said:


> I decided to 'treat' myself to a Subway roll today. I last bought one about 6 months ago for $9.75, today it was $17.60.
> 
> By my calculation that's an inflation rate of about 200% pa !



👀  better you than me ... i already have a heart condition


----------



## sptrawler (3 August 2022)

SirRumpole said:


> I decided to 'treat' myself to a Subway roll today. I last bought one about 6 months ago for $9.75, today it was $17.60.
> 
> By my calculation that's an inflation rate of about 200% pa !



You're going to have to for the 6" instead of the 12", or you will have inflation on your waistline.


----------



## Captain_Chaza (3 August 2022)

Captain_Chaza said:


> But Smurf (born in 1976)
> Don't confuse The Economy with The Share Market
> That's like Comparing Apples with Oranges
> View attachment 144257
> ...



Please start talking  with Some Sense if you can?
 PLEASE!
NB 
Australia's Richest Woman is the richest  Women by virtue of Inheritance

Nothing More, Nothing Less

Inflation is everyone's Best friend
Unless of course ?
If you have nothing to inflate


----------



## SirRumpole (3 August 2022)

sptrawler said:


> You're going to have to for the 6" instead of the 12", or you will have inflation on your waistline.



As I said, 6 months apart, its not exactly an addiction.


----------



## sptrawler (3 August 2022)

SirRumpole said:


> Australians should work for $2 a day says Australia's richest woman.
> 
> 
> 
> ...






frugal.rock said:


> So about $3 a day now then eh?
> 
> I reckon Australia's richest woman likes slave labour...



On the same theme on todays ABC news website.








						Australian corporations raking in record profits while workers struggle with wages, report shows
					

There are fresh calls for Australia's biggest corporations to rein in record profits in order to provide low wage earners with some cost-of-living relief.




					www.abc.net.au
				




There are fresh calls for big business to rein in their big or "supernormal" profits in order to provide low wage earners some desperately needed household budget relief.

The latest profit results from Shell, Chevron, Exxon Mobil and BP show record half-yearly earnings.

Half-yearly profits for all companies together had almost doubled to $US55.2 billion ($79.6 billion), up from $US28.7 billion for the same period last year, the ACTU noted.

"These energy giants are posting staggering profits while fuelling our cost-of-living crisis," ACTU president Michele O'Neil says.

Business groups argue that for real wages to lift, worker productivity needs to lift.

The Productivity Commission's interim report confirms that the productivity growth that drives real wages is languishing at 60-year lows, Business Council chief executive Jennifer Westacott says.

"This challenge is monumental because it is productivity that has overwhelmingly driven better living standards and higher wages for Australians since Federation.
Impact Economics and Policy lead economist Angela Jackson says stubbornly low wage growth is a symptom of a broken industrial relations system.

She says the basic formula is that inflation plus productivity growth should equal wage growth.

"The system of wage determination and enterprise bargaining hasn't factored in productivity gains for decades," she says.

"It's frustrating."


----------



## Captain_Chaza (3 August 2022)

*It's Good to be Rich!*
Some people assume  you must be Smart to be Rich
Go Gigure!


----------



## SirRumpole (3 August 2022)

sptrawler said:


> On the same theme on todays ABC news website.
> 
> 
> 
> ...



Surely it's up to the tax system to reel in some of these super profits and redistribute to those whose spending power has been diminished ?

Notice that these are all fuel companies making super profits and Chalmers said they were going to crack down on tax avoidance by big companies.

I hope he doesn't squib it.


----------



## sptrawler (3 August 2022)

SirRumpole said:


> Surely it's up to the tax system to reel in some of these super profits and redistribute to those whose spending power has been diminished ?
> 
> Notice that these are all fuel companies making super profits and Chalmers said they were going to crack down on tax avoidance by big companies.
> 
> I hope he doesn't squib it.



Pollies have to be careful, the ones they hammer, could be the ones they are asking for a job after the next election.😂

What cracks me up is, productivity can only be taken so far, eventually the workplace cuts down numbers and conditions to a point that there is very little left to be gained and very little left to give.
Especially with automation, there comes a time where the company has to start giving pay rises to keep staff, rather than increasing dividends to keep shareholders.


----------



## Smurf1976 (3 August 2022)

Captain_Chaza said:


> Please start talking  with Some Sense if you can?
> PLEASE!
> NB
> Australia's Richest Woman is the richest  Women by virtue of Inheritance
> ...



Take 100 randomly chosen adults.

How many are really, truly gaining from inflation?

There's a very substantial portion of the population reliant on wages / salary, discretionary business or who want to increase their ownership of real estate for practical use as a residence. In general they're not gaining.

Personally I'm doing fine at present but for many they'll be going backwards that's a given and that inevitably will affect consumer spending and the real economy.

Bearing in mind that apart from those who inherited wealth or won the lottery at the age of 18 etc, practically everyone's been in that situation at some point in their life.


----------



## sptrawler (5 August 2022)

Smurf1976 said:


> Take 100 randomly chosen adults.
> 
> How many are really, truly gaining from inflation?
> 
> ...



Reality is starting to kick in.









						Real wages to continue falling as high inflation and interest rates hit households
					

In its most recent monetary policy update, the Reserve Bank has admitted low-income households may have to cut spending.




					www.smh.com.au
				



Households face a fall in their real incomes until 2024, the Reserve Bank has predicted, as a combination of high inflation, increasing interest rates and moderate wages growth squeezes the wallets of Australians.
In its most recent monetary policy update, released on Friday, the RBA admitted low-income households might have to cut spending as they struggled to deal with soaring prices for necessities such as food and petrol.


----------



## divs4ever (5 August 2022)

went up to the local  strip mall yesterday  , starting to look a bit vacant  ,  even the Lotto/Tobacconist shop is gone ( the hardware left more than two years back  and still hasn't been replaced )

  maybe not a huge thing  .. but they are jobs  no longer available


----------



## JohnDe (5 August 2022)

Does this class as 'street level'?


----------



## sptrawler (7 August 2022)

It's good to see those fat cat baby boomers are at last spending the kids inheritance, they've been demonised for a long time for having too much money and making it hard for the younger generation to get ahead, at last the penny has dropped why not help the younger generation out and spend it. 🤣 









						Soaring number of older home owners take out government-backed reverse mortgages
					

The number of older Australians who have signed up to Centrelink’s Home Equity Access Scheme has increased eightfold since the program was expanded three years ago.




					www.theage.com.au
				



The changes come as new figures from Services Australia show the number of participants in the scheme had grown to 6041 by June 30, owing a combined $138 million, compared with 768 three years ago.
Participation in the program, which has existed since the 1980s and was formerly called the Pension Loans Scheme, has been growing at more than 40 per cent a year since access was widened to include full pensioners in July 2019. It comes as the market for commercial reverse mortgages has dwindled.

Gerard Brody, chief executive of Consumer Action Law Centre, said the lump sum option would be appealing to borrowers, and he expected demand would continue to rise.
“The reality is there’s a lot of wealth tied up in housing in Australia and people are looking at ways to use that wealth during their lifetime,” Brody said. “I can see why this is an option that people are considering.”


----------



## Dona Ferentes (12 August 2022)

Permanently closed
Hungry Jack's Burgers Bondi Beach​3.7 226 Google reviews

$Fast food restaurant
Long-running fast-food chain for generous beef & chicken burgers, plus ice cream & soft drinks

...................... _no backpackers; no tourists. Evidently Campbell Parade is a bit of a ghost town._


----------



## divs4ever (12 August 2022)

yesterday's trip to the local  strip malls ( two of them adjoining at the back fence )

 revealed  one new vacancy in each 

 not exactly a ghost town  ,  but 'off-peak' is noticeably  quieter  ( i rarely go during the busy times )


----------



## wayneL (12 August 2022)

Last Saturday was a lot quieter than usual at my local. I'll be there again tomorrow collecting data and trying to single-handedly stop them going broke.


----------



## divs4ever (12 August 2022)

wayneL said:


> Last Saturday was a lot quieter than usual at my local. I'll be there again tomorrow collecting data and trying to single-handedly stop them going broke.





 not so much me  , am forward-buying durables  ( and hoarding  where possible )

 one has already decided no cash  ( and i DON'T use plastic )  , so they are on their own


----------



## wayneL (12 August 2022)

divs4ever said:


> not so much me  , am forward-buying durables  ( and hoarding  where possible )
> 
> one has already decided no cash  ( and i DON'T use plastic )  , so they are on their own



As detailed previously on this forum I have done my food hoarding last year. I'm not a Mormon, but I thought their year's supply of food was not a bad idea.

I'm thinking that skilling up my blacksmithing skills may just come in handy... It might be a little bit backwards for a Christian but I'm thinking along the lines of "I shall beat their ploughshares into swords, and their pruning hooks into spears" (with apologies to Mr Isaiah)


----------



## divs4ever (12 August 2022)

wayneL said:


> As detailed previously on this forum I have done my food hoarding last year. I'm not a Mormon, but I thought their year's supply of food was not a bad idea.
> 
> I'm thinking that skilling up my blacksmithing skills may just come in handy... It might be a little bit backwards for a Christian but I'm thinking along the lines of "I shall beat their ploughshares into swords, and their pruning hooks into spears" (with apologies to Mr Isaiah)



 am a big fan of the domino principle  ,  and have a collection of odds and sods  ( like my great uncles racing axe   , a very nice and versatile   tool )

 probably need to hit the outdoor ( or better yet army disposal ) store  , in case power outages are persistent ( or recurring )

 time will tell if times simply get tough  , or uncivilized as well 

 i might need to check for extra batteries  for the night-vision device  ( i already know the reputations of some of the neighbours  , they don't always knock )
 but will probably  continue to accumulate   , for trading purposes


----------



## moXJO (12 August 2022)

wayneL said:


> As detailed previously on this forum I have done my food hoarding last year. I'm not a Mormon, but I thought their year's supply of food was not a bad idea.
> 
> I'm thinking that skilling up my blacksmithing skills may just come in handy... It might be a little bit backwards for a Christian but I'm thinking along the lines of "I shall beat their ploughshares into swords, and their pruning hooks into spears" (with apologies to Mr Isaiah)



There's blacksmiths in Sydney teaching how to make a kitchen knife, group classes. About $500 per person. Not a bad racket for a chunk of metal and a piece of wood. Teaching the plebs is probably more profitable


----------



## wayneL (12 August 2022)

moXJO said:


> There's blacksmiths in Sydney teaching how to make a kitchen knife, group classes. About $500 per person. Not a bad racket for a chunk of metal and a piece of wood. Teaching the plebs is probably more profitable




It's like that in everything hey. Trading being a prime example.... I wouldn't want a noob on my anvil, possibly (probably) denting it though.


----------



## divs4ever (12 August 2022)

wayneL said:


> It's like that in everything hey. Trading being a prime example.... I wouldn't want a noob on my anvil, possibly (probably) denting it though.



 wouldn't it be easier to teach them how to identify a good knife ( tor your needs ) and just buy it  (  or steal it it the world goes Mad Maxish )

 you would be amazed at the knife abuse ( misuse ) i have seem oven 5 decades


----------



## wayneL (12 August 2022)

divs4ever said:


> wouldn't it be easier to teach them how to identify a good knife ( tor your needs ) and just buy it  (  or steal it it the world goes Mad Maxish )
> 
> you would be amazed at the knife abuse ( misuse ) i have seem oven 5 decades



There is something about using your own knife you made to suit exactly your own biomechanics and how you like to work. I make my own paring knives... you can buy cheapies for about $40, but I'd have to charge over $200 each if I sold mine. Indeed the best knives are about that price point.









						Beanie Wide Blade Knife
					

beautifully crafted and designed to help the farrier in his daily working life.




					www.farriershop.com.au
				




That guarantees the minimum of abuse.

But yeah I can completely trash a cheapie in about 6 months


----------



## redsmartie (12 August 2022)

I remember the old days when the big supermarket chains would get the floor space tape measure out and do the profit over measure. Good for profits but I watched my suburban Coles, Kmart and Woolies slash Franklins pack up shop and then some. Not saying this will happen in any area but the mall owner nearly went bust, story ends, big revival in that area now, construction industry saved the bill. Remedied by building new homes, selling parks to developer, those days are gone but not forgotten ... Next cycle please.


----------



## moXJO (13 August 2022)

divs4ever said:


> wouldn't it be easier to teach them how to identify a good knife ( tor your needs ) and just buy it  (  or steal it it the world goes Mad Maxish )
> 
> you would be amazed at the knife abuse ( misuse ) i have seem oven 5 decades



Up skilling and education in weird skills is hot right now. A lot of these courses popping up.


----------



## sptrawler (19 August 2022)

Not a bad interview, on the proposed increase of immigration and its probable effects.


----------



## divs4ever (19 August 2022)

population increase via immigration  has it's bonuses  but also it's costs 

 and sadly most Western  governments aren't proactive enough to cope with the new citizens in a speedy matter .. you have increased demands for accommodation , health services , education and other infrastructure ( like energy and logistics )


----------



## sptrawler (29 August 2022)

Sounds as though the troops are getting restless, strikes as one would expect, seem to be increasing where cost of living pressures are increasing the most, Sydney, Melbourne, Brisbane, it wont be long before the other capitals join in .
Hundreds of cars in union blockade at Brisbane Airport​Travellers have experienced delays at Brisbane Airport as hundreds of cars take part in a protest amid claims female cleaners are being expected to work in male toilets while they are open for use.









						New offer to unions unlikely to halt looming rail action
					

The latest offer from the state government is likely to be too late to prevent planned industrial action severely disrupting Sydney’s rail network on Wednesday.




					www.smh.com.au
				












						Australian tram workers strike in Melbourne, but unions push real wage cut
					

Around 90 striking workers are picketing the East Preston Tram Depot in northern Melbourne over a new enterprise agreement on wages and conditions.



					www.wsws.org
				












						NSW nurses and midwives to strike for 24 hours
					






					www.9news.com.au


----------



## InsvestoBoy (29 August 2022)

A friend of mine is in the hospital after emergency surgery, so for the first time in months I ventured out of my area, caught the train to Newtown Station and walked to Royal Prince Alfred via King Street.

Lots of new shops catering to consumption (food, bars, icecream etc) since I used to live in the area.

Lots of people walking around and eating and drinking, especially for a Sunday night.

Definitely gave me the urge to buy stocks.


----------



## InsvestoBoy (29 August 2022)

I also just heard from a friend who went to Burwood on Saturday night that it was so busy there was barely walking room on the footpath.


----------



## wayneL (29 August 2022)

InsvestoBoy said:


> A friend of mine is in the hospital after emergency surgery, so for the first time in months I ventured out of my area, caught the train to Newtown Station and walked to Royal Prince Alfred via King Street.
> 
> Lots of new shops catering to consumption (food, bars, icecream etc) since I used to live in the area.
> 
> ...



That's certainly borne out by the latest retail trade figures and I am still able to charge through the nose for remedial work and nobody is blinking.

The Rose and Crown is still pretty quiet on Saturday night however.

That said, Sunday at the Mundaring was chockers.


----------



## wayneL (31 August 2022)

European value of wages... coming to a South sea nation near you.


----------



## moXJO (2 September 2022)

A lot of people have now run out of stashed money and are now barely covering week to week expenses.

Probably will start to see business collapse accelerate into the next few months.


----------



## sptrawler (2 September 2022)

moXJO said:


> A lot of people have now run out of stashed money and are now barely covering week to week expenses.



Yes , there is always those that say, it'll be fine, it'll work out.
Well even pay rises, only give the can another kick down the road, they just allow bad money managers to borrow more money.
Eventually someone pays, whether it is those who are in debt, or those who have saved, is yet to be seen IMO.
If it is those who saved, they get taxed more, if it is those in debt the value of the currency falls, to prop up the debt.


----------



## InsvestoBoy (3 September 2022)

I was in the city yesterday for work and went out for dinner afterwards.

As far as I can tell Sydney is pumping.


----------



## againsthegrain (3 September 2022)

InsvestoBoy said:


> I was in the city yesterday for work and went out for dinner afterwards.
> 
> As far as I can tell Sydney is pumping.



the media are running a campaign of articles which say otherwise

https://www.news.com.au/finance/bus...d/news-story/da6d1e2e9f802233e2bf058ae1df7f68

Im in Melbourne so can't say,  but here alot of food places are closed permanently. Good locations are still busy but you take a turn into the side street of a main road and its dead where previously was open


----------



## InsvestoBoy (3 September 2022)

againsthegrain said:


> the media are running a campaign of articles which say otherwise
> 
> https://www.news.com.au/finance/bus...d/news-story/da6d1e2e9f802233e2bf058ae1df7f68
> 
> Im in Melbourne so can't say,  but here alot of food places are closed permanently. Good locations are still busy but you take a turn into the side street of a main road and its dead where previously was open




Thanks for sharing that interesting article.

This is a pretty interesting quote


> It’s a situation Business Sydney executive director Paul Nicolaou is all too familiar with, explaining to news.com.au that it was a “sad” sight walking through Sydney’s CBD on Mondays and Fridays post-Covid.
> 
> *“Tuesdays, Wednesdays and Thursdays are manic *but you don’t see a lot of people on Mondays and Fridays,” he said.




Monday I guess I could easily believe because it's a an easy day to work from home for those who can, and on consideration that would be an immediate 20% reduction in cashflows for business owners relying on the office worker crowd.

I actually wondered to myself, will it be quiet on a Friday? 

Wynyard Station was bustling when I got off the train at ~9:45AM and there was a normal 5-10 crowd of people getting their breakfast at the maccas like me.

At ~12:30PM we walked from the office near Apple store on George St down to Chinese restaurant fav Chef's Gallery right next to Town Hall station, past the Galeries, QVB, Pitt St Arcade, etc there were so many people walking around!

Went for an early dinner at Yayoi in Pitt St Mall and nearly all the tables were as full as I remember them being. 

Walked the entire length of the city down to Central and back to Town Hall after dinner talking with a friend and it was pretty busy, lots of people.

Train home was decently full for a 9PM ride out of the city on a Friday night.


----------



## SirRumpole (3 September 2022)

againsthegrain said:


> the media are running a campaign of articles which say otherwise
> 
> https://www.news.com.au/finance/bus...d/news-story/da6d1e2e9f802233e2bf058ae1df7f68
> 
> Im in Melbourne so can't say,  but here alot of food places are closed permanently. Good locations are still busy but you take a turn into the side street of a main road and its dead where previously was open




*"“Energy bills are going up, the cost of food and beverages is going up, and they are struggling to find staff,” he said.*

I'd say the consumers are having the same problem with rising costs which is why they are not spending as much.

Mondays and Fridays are probably work from home days, because "who likes Monday" anyway ? and Friday is an excuse to nip off for the weekend.


----------



## divs4ever (3 September 2022)

InsvestoBoy said:


> A friend of mine is in the hospital after emergency surgery, so for the first time in months I ventured out of my area, caught the train to Newtown Station and walked to Royal Prince Alfred via King Street.
> 
> Lots of new shops catering to consumption (food, bars, icecream etc) since I used to live in the area.
> 
> ...



very different here  ( Brisbane-Gold Coast  corridor ) 

 more small shops closing ( completely )  if anything is increasing it is security cameras ( household AND  at the shopping malls )

 normally plenty of spaces in the car parks ( but i do go off-peak ) but the petrol station  is being renovated  so only one third of the pumps available

 now i am not sure it is a good sign  , but used syringes on the street are rare ( but there is a smattering of tiny lock-top bags around , and they do not look like a coin collector has discarded them carelessly )

 had to resist shopping in the kitchen utensils section ( they don't look very durable ) ( the hardware store left about four years back )


----------



## InsvestoBoy (3 September 2022)

divs4ever said:


> but used syringes on the street are rare ( but there is a smattering of tiny lock-top bags around , and they do not look like a coin collector has discarded them carelessly )




it's for meth 🧙‍♂️


----------



## Dona Ferentes (3 September 2022)

InsvestoBoy said:


> it's for meth 🧙‍♂️



What's the going price?


----------



## InsvestoBoy (3 September 2022)

Dona Ferentes said:


> What's the going price?




Looks like the price has not been immune to its own inflation https://www.aic.gov.au/publications/sb/sb32


----------



## moXJO (3 September 2022)

InsvestoBoy said:


> Thanks for sharing that interesting article.
> 
> This is a pretty interesting quote
> 
> ...



Restaurants are packed. Not sure much else is doing business?

I've discussed it with a few people and most comments is their fridges aren't as stocked and they are too lazy to make food. 
It's also the social element of eating out amongst people. That being chosen as the spend of the week.


----------



## Smurf1976 (3 September 2022)

For my nearest shopping centre it seems to be doing well. Plenty of empty shops two years ago but mostly filled now and there's plenty of people around.

Just my observation locally, all seems to be doing OK at the moment.


----------



## rcw1 (3 September 2022)

Dona Ferentes said:


> What's the going price?



why do you want to buy some ???  

Kind regards
rcw1


----------



## rcw1 (3 September 2022)

moXJO said:


> Restaurants are packed.  Not sure much else is doing business?
> 
> I've discussed it with a few people and most comments is their fridges aren't as stocked and they are too lazy to make food.
> It's also the social element of eating out amongst people. That being chosen as the spend of the week.



Good evening moXJO
100% spot on.  
Do believe though, international and domestic tourists have added another very real positive dimension to the hospitality industry.

Have a very nice Sunday.

Kind regards
rcw1


----------



## InsvestoBoy (3 September 2022)

moXJO said:


> Restaurants are packed. Not sure much else is doing business?




It's Sydney, we already murdered the rest of the local culture compared to Melbourne long before COVID, what's left but eating?


----------



## againsthegrain (3 September 2022)

InsvestoBoy said:


> It's Sydney, we already murdered the rest of the local culture compared to Melbourne long before COVID, what's left but eating?



meth?  🧙‍♂️ 😂


----------



## divs4ever (4 September 2022)

InsvestoBoy said:


> it's for meth 🧙‍♂️



 that sounds a bit high class for here ( despite recent sales of $1.2 mil for homes in the suburb )

 besides it is close to a major hospital  , there should be better stuff leaking from there ( out the side door )


----------



## divs4ever (4 September 2022)

Smurf1976 said:


> For my nearest shopping centre it seems to be doing well. Plenty of empty shops two years ago but mostly filled now and there's plenty of people around.
> 
> Just my observation locally, all seems to be doing OK at the moment.



 or you have got preppers   ( trying to use that cash while it still buys something )


----------



## divs4ever (4 September 2022)

InsvestoBoy said:


> Looks like the price has not been immune to its own inflation https://www.aic.gov.au/publications/sb/sb32



 well they did weed out the competition  , once you have monopolies and duopolies , that is what happens


----------



## InsvestoBoy (4 September 2022)

divs4ever said:


> that sounds a bit high class for here ( despite recent sales of $1.2 mil for homes in the suburb )




You might be thinking of cocaine.


----------



## divs4ever (4 September 2022)

i am thinking  over 60% of the homes in the street  with  multiple external  security cameras , hints at something less than peaceful is happening 

 you know  the  saying  'when seconds count  , the police are minutes away ' ??

 well here they took 8 hours ( but at least they sent a scientific team ) which wasn't so bad  footage from 8 different homes was ready and waiting for them    .. seemed to have missed the memo  on the results  , maybe the insurer has that 

 no sniffer dogs though , maybe it was over-worked elsewhere ( or still finding little bags up the street )

 but ain't no recession in QLD ( maybe it's depression )


----------



## againsthegrain (4 September 2022)

In my street every house has cameras because break ins and house invasions are up.  Once 1 or 2 houses get broken into basically the whole street gets cameras. They are cheap now not how it was in the 90s.

On an other note going round Melbourne I do notice alot more homeless poping up.  Always a tent here and there in the city and on main streets around inner city.


----------



## sptrawler (4 September 2022)

Dona Ferentes said:


> What's the going price?



I asked someone I know well, how much does somone on meths spend, he said about $600/ day.
If they can get the funds.


----------



## InsvestoBoy (4 September 2022)

againsthegrain said:


> On an other note going round Melbourne I do notice alot more homeless poping up.  Always a tent here and there in the city and on main streets around inner city.




I used to live in Melb around 2009 for a few years, doesn't sound unusual compared to then?


----------



## againsthegrain (4 September 2022)

InsvestoBoy said:


> I used to live in Melb around 2009 for a few years, doesn't sound unusual compared to then?



There was always a few homeless here and there right in the city but never on south bank (in front of crown casino and restaurants)  or as many as there is right in the cbd.  Im not that frequent so being there every 1 or 2 months maybe I notice it more rather than if I was there everyday and used to it. Happy to be corrected by anybody who frequents Melbourne cbd more.

As for inner suburbs there is a few regular rough sleepers on the main street near where I live,  this is something  that started in the last 2-3 years never seen it before.

As for outer suburbs such as Dandenong which are right on the other end of the scale there is a massive number of homeless right in front of the shopping centre.  Dandenong was always the bottom of the barrel but I think that bottom fell out now


----------



## hopeing (4 September 2022)

Hi ,saturday night at beautiful Bargara , most eateries pubs and taverns ,rsl ,absolutly packed .


----------



## Knobby22 (4 September 2022)

againsthegrain said:


> There was always a few homeless here and there right in the city but never on south bank (in front of crown casino and restaurants)  or as many as there is right in the cbd.  Im not that frequent so being there every 1 or 2 months maybe I notice it more rather than if I was there everyday and used to it. Happy to be corrected by anybody who frequents Melbourne cbd more.
> 
> As for inner suburbs there is a few regular rough sleepers on the main street near where I live,  this is something  that started in the last 2-3 years never seen it before.
> 
> As for outer suburbs such as Dandenong which are right on the other end of the scale there is a massive number of homeless right in front of the shopping centre.  Dandenong was always the bottom of the barrel but I think that bottom fell out now



Plenty of rough sleepers in CBD. They are on Northbank and on the pavements in the CBD and in little spots. We had a lot less when they got to stay in hotels due to Covid but that has ended now. Probably more help for them here though compared to Dandenong.


----------



## Knobby22 (4 September 2022)

hopeing said:


> Hi ,saturday night at beautiful Bargara , most eateries pubs and taverns ,rsl ,absolutly packed .



Melbourne is packed at night but it's the daytime eateries and businesses relying on day trading that have closed.
I work opposite the State Government building and use there carpark and it is empty Mondays and Fridays.


----------



## hopeing (4 September 2022)

Ok, yeh not that problem here or bundy ,biggest issue is getting workers , Quite often pubs put on local facebook that bistroes closed from lack of staff weeknights and quite a few cafes closed down as cant get staff ,sad really.


----------



## rcw1 (4 September 2022)

hopeing said:


> Ok, yeh not that problem here or bundy ,biggest issue is getting workers , Quite often pubs put on local facebook that bistroes closed from lack of staff weeknights and quite a few cafes closed down as cant get staff ,sad really.



Good evening hopeing
Luv the rum   and the soft drink too.  Nice boost to the local economy ...

Kind regards
rcw


----------



## wayneL (4 September 2022)

All the Guildford pubs absolutely chockers this arvo. *But it is Father's Day*.


----------



## sptrawler (5 September 2022)

Welfare recipients set to receive largest indexation increase in three decades amid soaring cost of living
					

The government says it's the largest indexation increase to payments in more than 30 years for allowances, and 12 years for pensions.




					www.abc.net.au
				



From this month, Jobseeker recipients aged over 22 without children will get an extra $25.70 a fortnight, taking their Jobseeker to $677 a fortnight, including the Energy Supplement

Single parents will get an extra $35.20 a fortnight, taking their Parenting Payment to $927.40 including the Energy Supplement.

For couples on Jobseeker or Parenting Payments, the rate will increase by $23.40 a fortnight to $616.60 including the Energy Supplement.

The maximum rate of pension will increase to $1,026.50 a fortnight for singles and $773.80 for each member of a pensioner couple or $1,547.60 per couple.


----------



## qldfrog (5 September 2022)

sptrawler said:


> Welfare recipients set to receive largest indexation increase in three decades amid soaring cost of living
> 
> 
> The government says it's the largest indexation increase to payments in more than 30 years for allowances, and 12 years for pensions.
> ...



Would be nice to get that


----------



## sptrawler (5 September 2022)

qldfrog said:


> Would be nice to get that



Yes, two single pensioners sharing a house would work well, my wife's aunt and her sister used to live together. $1,000/wk between them would take some doing through investment. 
Definitely would take some serious number crunching, as to putting extra money into super, or the mortgage IMO.


----------



## divs4ever (5 September 2022)

qldfrog said:


> Would be nice to get that



yes  , they take a bit off mine  ( pension ) something about the deemed value of the portfolio  , maybe i should have taken some tips off Malcolm Turnbull and set up a charity trust  in Bhutan or something 

 ( if the globalists are right the West Indies will go underwater )


----------



## moXJO (9 September 2022)

It's been packed late night shopping. Mainly the restaurants, shops look pretty quiet. But I'd expect a bit of an uptick of sales with all the September birthdays (the new years knock ups). 
Carparks were full
Restaurants/pubs were jammed full.


----------



## sptrawler (14 September 2022)

This is an interesting one at street level, if the Government loses revenue, who do the union think will pay for the shortfall? Santa Clause. 
I think this might hurt the union and isn't a well thought out ploy.  
There is a big difference between leaving a gate open and actively disabling an automatic ticket machine, this one could end up in court IMO.








						Rail unions to switch off Opal readers, costing NSW millions
					

NSW Rail, Tram and Bus Union secretary Alex Claassens said the new protest measures targeted the state government’s coffers without hurting commuters.




					www.smh.com.au
				



The Opal reader machines on Sydney’s rail platforms will be completely turned off next week in the latest stage of an ongoing industrial dispute with the NSW government.
*NSW Rail, Tram and Bus Union secretary Alex Claassens said the new measures were targeted at the state government’s coffers without affecting commuters.*
“Obviously, we’re making sure that they’re going to be kept open and working the way we want them to work so people don’t have to pay,” Claassens said.

“We want to put pressure on the government and senior bureaucrats, not the travelling public. We’re escalating that particular action, and it will continue indefinitely until there is an agreement with the government.”

While the rail union last month left open Opal gates at most stations, the card readers on the machines were left on, which allowed people to pay their fares. The government last week said 90 per cent of commuters were continuing to tap on and off the network.


----------



## sptrawler (15 September 2022)

sptrawler said:


> This is an interesting one at street level, if the Government loses revenue, who do the union think will pay for the shortfall? Santa Clause.
> I think this might hurt the union and isn't a well thought out ploy.
> There is a big difference between leaving a gate open and actively disabling an automatic ticket machine, this one could end up in court IMO.
> 
> ...



You have to wonder who is advising the union these days? Blind Freddie could see that play would end badly, to actually publicly announce your illegal intentions kind of admits how little clue someone has.

https://www.smh.com.au/national/nsw...y-shut-down-opal-readers-20220915-p5bidz.html

The NSW government has warned unions it will pursue them through the courts and stand down staff if rail workers completely shut down Opal ticket readers at Sydney train stations next week as part of industrial action.
Transport Minister David Elliott said on Thursday that the government had received legal advice suggesting the new industrial action was illegal, and he issued a strong warning to the rail unions to drop their plans.


----------



## InsvestoBoy (1 October 2022)

I just went to a very big suburban shopping centre here in Sydney 5-6PM to try and buy some new sneakers.

The place was PACKED and people were buying.

Staff could not find a single pair of leather Nike sneakers in the size I wanted, sold out. Same as online (which is why I went out in the first place).

This is despite Nike making a market release yesterday saying they have too much inventory and they are discounting to get rid of it (which crashed their stock price)...um...I'd buy a couple of pairs.

Definitely had the urge to buy stocks.


----------



## frugal.rock (14 October 2022)

So Bunnings now has umbrella's again after not having them for somewhere over 6 months. 
Price is now $12 each, before was $10, 20% increase.
But they had been $10 for somewhere over 10 years...

I see supply normalising in many areas, supermarket product also.

@moXJO would know better about building products. 

I don't think there's an overall big issue with supply in general, they seem to be sorting themselves out, niche area's yes, still a problem.


----------



## qldfrog (14 October 2022)

The noosa art trail completed this weekend.there was a consensus among artists that sales this year were much lower than last year 
I believe that discretionary easy spendings have reduced...


----------



## mullokintyre (14 October 2022)

According to The evil murdoch press food Inflation in OZ is at a decade high of  8%.


> The rapid increase in food prices at the supermarket has accelerated to more than 8 per cent, reflecting decades-high inflation rates for both fresh and packaged foods.
> The spike is adding extra pressure on household budgets already buckling under rising interest rates and cost of living pressures.
> 
> And the cost of basic foods would have been much higher if it wasn’t for Woolworths and Coles offering discounts and promotions at their stores.
> ...



The forecast is like most other expert forecasts, guesswork.
Mick


----------



## moXJO (14 October 2022)

frugal.rock said:


> So Bunnings now has umbrella's again after not having them for somewhere over 6 months.
> Price is now $12 each, before was $10, 20% increase.
> But they had been $10 for somewhere over 10 years...
> 
> ...



Supply coming back now. Silicone back to about $2.95 a tube (trade suppliers) after a tripling over covid. 

As expected interest rates biting in certain areas and probably an overstock of a lot of things.

Still some gaps with consumer electronics and some electrical components. 

Wollies discounting a bit more just from a "eyeballing" metric.

Terrible service and employees on way above what they should be getting in wages. This is the very fine dance line for the rba. Pump rates to hard and it falls down in a screaming mess. 

I think mindsets on spending are beginning to change a bit now. High wages are the main problem I'd think for the rba.
Can all turn on a dime at the moment though.


----------



## frugal.rock (14 October 2022)

moXJO said:


> Terrible service and employees on way above what they should be getting in wages.



Was at Coles early the other morning, no self serve open yet, only 1 checkout open on side of service desk area.

As I approached the checkout (in full vision of staff member), the staff member walked out of the service area to other checkouts and proceeded to do something on their screens, before casually sauntering back to serve me.

Was no biggie, but just indicative of current attitudes.

At the time, I thought to myself, 
"I need to appreciate that I can actually be a customer any more at all".
The customer is now always wrong, and a painful person to deal with... 🤪


----------



## Knobby22 (15 October 2022)

frugal.rock said:


> Was at Coles early the other morning, no self serve open yet, only 1 checkout open on side of service desk area.
> 
> As I approached the checkout (in full vision of staff member), the staff member walked out of the service area to other checkouts and proceeded to do something on their screens, before casually sauntering back to serve me.
> 
> ...



Go to Aldi, cheaper, checkouts only and good way to take cash out.


----------



## frugal.rock (15 October 2022)

Knobby22 said:


> Go to Aldi, cheaper, checkouts only and good way to take cash out.



Yarp, normally do.
Opening hours are a bit restrictive though in comparison, thus the visit elsewhere.
A bit (restrictive) like some of Aldi's checkouts, the mini ones with no runway after the register... what were they thinking?
I will wait at a checkout that has a full runway after the checkout as some of the checkout operators are just mechanised robots and will push your shite onto the floor in their sit down rush. Most are pretty good though, and they're generally much better than they used to be.


----------



## InsvestoBoy (15 October 2022)

Went out for dinner in Chatswood recently, lots of people walking around, lots of people eating in every open restaurant. People lining up to get into the Japanese restaurant we wanted to go to.

Wanted to get some Napoli pizza in North Ryde on Thursday night, the joint was booked out and couldn't seat us! Went to nearby Macquarie Centre and it was super busy with people shopping and eating at every venue.

If there is a squeeze on discretionary income from high rates or high inflation I am not seeing it in this area or it is not happening.

Strong urge to buy more stocks.


----------



## JohnDe (15 October 2022)

InsvestoBoy said:


> Went out for dinner in Chatswood recently, lots of people walking around, lots of people eating in every open restaurant. People lining up to get into the Japanese restaurant we wanted to go to.
> 
> Wanted to get some Napoli pizza in North Ryde on Thursday night, the joint was booked out and couldn't seat us! Went to nearby Macquarie Centre and it was super busy with people shopping and eating at every venue.
> 
> ...




What most traders don't realise is that the majority of the public do not bother with the share markets.


----------



## moXJO (15 October 2022)

InsvestoBoy said:


> Went out for dinner in Chatswood recently, lots of people walking around, lots of people eating in every open restaurant. People lining up to get into the Japanese restaurant we wanted to go to.
> 
> Wanted to get some Napoli pizza in North Ryde on Thursday night, the joint was booked out and couldn't seat us! Went to nearby Macquarie Centre and it was super busy with people shopping and eating at every venue.
> 
> ...



Eating out or entertainment is ballistic. Everywhere every week.

Shopping centres not so much. Definite downturn in a lot of stores I was chatting to.


----------



## divs4ever (16 October 2022)

JohnDe said:


> What most traders don't realise is that the majority of the public do not bother with the share markets.



 that is a shame  since many are holders via their superannuation funds ( often via ETFs held via those fund managers )

 they are being affected  , whether they bother to care  or not


----------



## qldfrog (16 October 2022)

divs4ever said:


> that is a shame  since many are holders via their superannuation funds ( often via ETFs held via those fund managers )
> 
> they are being affected  , whether they bother to care  or not



Yes they are, but all sheeple .
So they could not care the least..i always have a twisted smile when i see people complaining or being happy for a few dollars a fortnight while their mandatory super is increased year after year and the market is getting smashed by 5 % in a week yet they do not even blink ,..


----------



## qldfrog (16 October 2022)

moXJO said:


> Eating out or entertainment is ballistic. Everywhere every week.
> 
> Shopping centres not so much. Definite downturn in a lot of stores I was chatting to.



I agree on that people do spend big on cafes small restaurant.forking out 500$ on goods ..a bit different.
I believe it is a mad
 burn it while we can spirit.
I do same here


----------



## divs4ever (16 October 2022)

am managing to start enlightening  one or two  , but am happy to see some are already quite aware  and initiating strategies to protect them and family ( very discretely )  , and effectively cancelling 'Cancel Culture '  , this might end up being the Peacenik's dream  ( 'what if we had a war , and nobody came  ? '


----------



## JohnDe (16 October 2022)

divs4ever said:


> that is a shame  since many are holders via their superannuation funds ( often via ETFs held via those fund managers )
> 
> they are being affected  , whether they bother to care  or not




The majority of people have no control over what their Super funds invest in, and swapping isn’t much help because as you mentioned most are investing in the same thing.

Which brings us back to my original comment, most people don’t give a rat’s about the stock market.

At street level the consumer is looking at their bank accounts, wages, jobs, street life, friends, and so on. 

There is no shortage of jobs, only a shortage of employees, it’s possible to change multiple jobs and ask for a higher wage than advertised.


----------



## sptrawler (16 October 2022)

The wife and I were in Sydney on Mon Tues this week to catch the cruise ship, seemed a lot quieter than it normally is when we have been there on past trips. Also a lot of shops seemed to be available for lease in the CBD.


----------



## againsthegrain (16 October 2022)

sptrawler said:


> The wife and I were in Sydney on Mon Tues this week to catch the cruise ship, seemed a lot quieter than it normally is when we have been there on past trips. Also a lot of shops seemed to be available for lease in the CBD.



It is always interesting to look at seek business for sale, I look from time to time to see what people try to offload and how desperate.  It will vary by area and state


----------



## frugal.rock (16 October 2022)

Sydney CBD was a special case of Clover Moore disaster.
Her vision to turn it into some touristy haven with no vehicles has just destroyed the place.
Nail by nail, the coffin was slowly sealed for many businesses.
Slammed by construction works for "Clover's front door" tram system which got picked up by State Government as costs blew out, business's were then slammed by covid restrictions.

Business that failed due to construction works replaced by new business, only to again fail in turn from restrictions.
Tourism locked out.
Sydney CBD became a ghost town. 

But hey, at least Clover had her public transport from her front door to Councils chambers. I wonder if she used it, or whether it was just a novel idea and she still was carried around by a driver...?🤔

George St has lost it's life and vibe. What returns in it's place is yet to be seen.
Largely, it's starting to represent a smaller version of some other unnamed Asian city. 🤢


----------



## Knobby22 (16 October 2022)

I am in Dubai Airport and everything looks good.


----------



## Dona Ferentes (16 October 2022)

frugal.rock said:


> Sydney CBD was a special case of Clover Moore disaster.
> Her vision to turn it into some touristy haven with no vehicles has just destroyed the place.
> Nail by nail, the coffin was slowly sealed for many businesses.
> Slammed by construction works for "Clover's front door" tram system which got picked up by State Government as costs blew out, business's were then slammed by covid restrictions.
> ...



As part of the jostling between Mz Moore and the State Govt, it ain't worth the hassle. Surry Hills, also part of SCC, is becoming tech / start-up central, and also priced out of reach, and the action is moving to Enmore Rd and Marrickville. Hipsters aplenty.

Kings X is gone off and places like The Rocks are just sterile theme parks.

The Eastern suburbs is athleisure central, closely followed by the Bay Walk. Someone told me in the 1970s that north of the bridge was leafy and devoid of excitement, and I haven't been back to check.





__





						Enmore Road Has Been Classified as a Special Entertainment Precinct for the Next Three Months - Concrete Playground
					






					concreteplayground-com.cdn.ampproject.org


----------



## divs4ever (16 October 2022)

qldfrog said:


> I agree on that people do spend big on cafes small restaurant.forking out 500$ on goods ..a bit different.
> I believe it is a mad
> burn it while we can spirit.
> I do same here



 not me ,  am carefully accumulating waiting for the full or partial societal collapse  , all we really need is for the majority of workers to disassociate from the ALP and unions


----------



## frugal.rock (16 October 2022)

Knobby22 said:


> I am in Dubai Airport and everything looks good.



It's that slick shiny sheen to everything, innit.
Safe travels.


----------



## wayneL (16 October 2022)

I'm getting absolutely smashed with enquiry and new work (I do a lot of specialized high-dollar stuff). Making a frekin motza, but getting sore, tired and curmudgeonly... partly my reputation is growing in a new place, partly attrition of other guys.
The jabbed x 3-6 keep getting sick.
2 guys have farked their backs up, one seriously in a motorcycle accident.
1 moved down south.

Elsewhere, a new tavern opened within walking distance of my little Ponderosa. They brew their own beer (and pretty doggone good too), but can't get a chef for the kitchen. It's very well supported by locals, even so... most properties well into 7 figures though, so not many hurting for a buck around here.

Nearest shopping centre seems to be doing okay. But must be said the Rose and Crown in Guildford is still pretty quiet.


----------



## Telamelo (17 October 2022)

Knobby22 said:


> Go to Aldi, cheaper, checkouts only and good way to take cash out.



I heard that Kmart don't believe in cash anymore as can only pay by card there apparently !? as an elderly friend of mine is old school only carries cash $ got the runaround/big lecture at a Kmart store the other day for insisting on wanting to pay with cash $

P.S. Says he's never going to Kmart ever again lol


----------



## mullokintyre (17 October 2022)

Telamelo said:


> I heard that Kmart don't believe in cash anymore as can only pay by card there apparently !? as an elderly friend of mine is old school only carries cash $ got the runaround/big lecture at a Kmart store the other day for insisting on wanting to pay with cash $
> 
> P.S. Says he's never going to Kmart ever again lol



The answer to that is just walk out without paying.
last time I checked, cash was still legal tender.
so if they dont want to take your cash then just walk out. 
should kmart wish to charge, would be an interesting court case.
mick


----------



## Dona Ferentes (17 October 2022)

_people want to socialise_

Endeavour Group says that retail sales for the first quarter were *down *6.2 per cent to $2.49 billion, while hotel sales for the quarter were *up* 90.8 per cent to $538 million.


> _“First quarter sales have accelerated in our hotels, while our retail brands have continued their market leadership as we cycle the unique peaks in COVID-19 lockdowns in place at the same period last year_,” the company said.


----------



## rcw1 (17 October 2022)

Telamelo said:


> I heard that Kmart don't believe in cash anymore as can only pay by card there apparently !? as an elderly friend of mine is old school only carries cash $ got the runaround/big lecture at a Kmart store the other day for insisting on wanting to pay with cash $
> 
> P.S. Says he's never going to Kmart ever again lol



Good morning 
No cash 💰 taken at Qld Country Bank Stadium during NRL games, thinking same at Suncorp too.

Have a very nice day, today.

Kind regards
rcw1


----------



## againsthegrain (17 October 2022)

rcw1 said:


> Good morning
> No cash 💰 taken at Qld Country Bank Stadium during NRL games, thinking same at Suncorp too.
> 
> Have a very nice day, today.
> ...



I went to a dentist who didn't take cash but they had a surcharge on card payments...


----------



## wayneL (17 October 2022)

againsthegrain said:


> I went to a dentist who didn't take cash but they had a surcharge on card payments...



I thought that was illegal?


----------



## frugal.rock (17 October 2022)

I think everyone should politely point out to these retailers that cash can't be hacked.
Cash doesn't fail in a blackout.
Cash promotes a balance in the economy.

And probably more to the point, governments and institutions can't really fully  control people' s minds with a cash system... be prepared for a glazed expression if you state that last point...

Long live cash... 🤨


----------



## againsthegrain (17 October 2022)

wayneL said:


> I thought that was illegal?



I wasn't about to argue with people that will hold a drill in my mouth.. it probably is illegal


----------



## Dona Ferentes (17 October 2022)

wayneL said:


> I thought that was illegal?



they have to disclose the surcharge, prior to the transaction.

This is only for credit cards, which carry a Merchants Fee. A debit on a card shouldn't attract a fee. (you have to have money in the account, of course)


----------



## againsthegrain (17 October 2022)

Dona Ferentes said:


> they have to disclose the surcharge, prior to the transaction.
> 
> This is only for credit cards, which carry a Merchants Fee. A debit on a card shouldn't attract a fee. (you have to have money in the account, of course)



my debit card was charged the 1% surcharge, once again I didn't want to argue over 1% at a place that is related with my health but really pissed me off 😡


----------



## Telamelo (17 October 2022)

againsthegrain said:


> I went to a dentist who didn't take cash but they had a surcharge on card payments...



Surcharge on card payments unfortunately seems to be common nowadays almost everywhere especially on weekend's if eating out/entertainment etc. Worse on public holiday's I've noticed as well - extra surcharges applicable


----------



## divs4ever (17 October 2022)

Dona Ferentes said:


> _people want to socialise_
> 
> Endeavour Group says that retail sales for the first quarter were *down *6.2 per cent to $2.49 billion, while hotel sales for the quarter were *up* 90.8 per cent to $538 million.



 yea , but ,  hotels have had some crazy operating hours  over the last  two and a half years 

 will not be impressed until they hit RECORD highs ( we have this thing called inflation  lurking about currently  ,  anything not at least 5%  above the all-time record is losing ground )


----------



## divs4ever (17 October 2022)

againsthegrain said:


> I wasn't about to argue with people that will hold a drill in my mouth.. it probably is illegal



 HA HA , they won't get me like that  ( i have had all false teeth since 21 )

 and cash is trash ( or so they now are telling  you )

 the more interesting  part of this  is , cash is a symbol of trust in your government  ( interpret that as you will )


----------



## qldfrog (17 October 2022)

divs4ever said:


> yea , but ,  hotels have had some crazy operating hours  over the last  two and a half years
> 
> will not be impressed until they hit RECORD highs ( we have this thing called inflation  lurking about currently  ,  anything not at least 5%  above the all-time record is losing ground )



5 % only?


----------



## divs4ever (17 October 2022)

can't go scaring the masses  ( and we are talking 5% per quarter , which probably is still conservative )

 BTW i DID  buy a bottle of Guinness black stout to celebrate the beginning of the fall of the Great Britain ( UK ) on that  extra holiday we had

 that should be a real popcorn seller

 ( the Scottish referendum later this month  and strong rumblings about the  two Irelands reuniting  , i wonder what the Welsh are going to do ?)


----------



## rcw1 (17 October 2022)

divs4ever said:


> ... , i wonder what the Welsh are going to do ?)



try and win another 6 nations championship 

Kind regards
rcw1


----------



## moXJO (20 October 2022)

Ate at a more working class area restaurant attached to a mall (friends with owners).
It was dead. Apparently no customers all day and the entire mall was super quiet all day as well.
6 months ago the place was pumping. Must be hitting the end of rate rises soon. From here it's mainly to see if they crash land us.


----------



## frugal.rock (20 October 2022)

For us working class, it's all head down bum up till Chrissie/New year hols and then skint into a frugal new year.
Unless a super Santa rally arrives soon..?
Unbloodylikely.


----------



## divs4ever (20 October 2022)

my Santa normally arrives late ( between Boxing Day and January 10th . roughly )  light trading , illiiquid stocks , and bills to pay , but cherries to be picked up for those with a little cash on hand


----------



## moXJO (20 October 2022)

frugal.rock said:


> For us working class, it's all head down bum up till Chrissie/New year hols and then skint into a frugal new year.
> Unless a super Santa rally arrives soon..?
> Unbloodylikely.



RBAs dreaming of a skint Christmas.
It's a tough position because there is still a lot of money being blasted by the top end.


----------



## UMike (20 October 2022)

wayneL said:


> againsthegrain said:
> 
> 
> > I went to a dentist who didn't take cash but they had a surcharge on card payments...
> ...



Only illegal to profit from it.
A Vendor is fully allowed to recover their costs.
Thats why third party suppliers like Tyro are so popular atm


----------



## moXJO (21 October 2022)

Petrol prices should be dampening spending as well. Rba will be treading a lot more carefully


----------



## JohnDe (21 October 2022)

Some places are doing ok. I've been looking around and found a coastal town which has new construction popping up each week I've been. 

Drove here during the school holidays and the place was packed, pubs full.  

Came back last night and went for a good walk around, everyone is happy, shops doing ok, but what caught my attention was the increase in construction over the past several weeks.

The thing with trying to assess the economy at street level, is that each street is different, like every suburb, city and town. It is worth taking the time to look further than our own little bubble.


----------



## InsvestoBoy (23 October 2022)

JohnDe said:


> What most traders don't realise is that the majority of the public do not bother with the share markets.




Wow thanks for bringing this valuable piece of information to our attention, how did you manage to come across this revelation hidden away from other traders?


----------



## JohnDe (23 October 2022)

InsvestoBoy said:


> Wow thanks for bringing this valuable piece of information to our attention, how did you manage to come across this revelation hidden away from other traders?




Mine was almost as good as your present tidbit of information, thanks for wasting 10 seconds of my life


----------



## Dona Ferentes (23 October 2022)

Dona Ferentes said:


> _people want to socialise_
> Endeavour Group says that retail sales for the first quarter were *down *6.2 per cent to $2.49 billion, while hotel sales for the quarter were *up* 90.8 per cent to $538 million.




and now the surviving pub and restaurant businesses are faced with staff shortages. I know is been canvassed before, but here's a biit more on the story. I think Uber type operations have cannibalised masstige food places.

_Sunday surcharges are becoming more common at restaurants. What are the rules? Where does the money go?_​








						Lunch, beer and a 20 per cent surcharge? Why more businesses are upping their prices on a Sunday
					

More businesses are increasing their prices on Sundays to keep up with soaring produce prices and hospitality wages and industry bodies say we should get used to it.




					www.abc.net.au


----------



## frugal.rock (23 October 2022)

JohnDe said:


> Mine was almost as good as your present tidbit of information, thanks for wasting 10 seconds of my life



Yes, but it's more about the aggregate of time wasted. +10 seconds and counting.
Will we ever know the true and real cost?
🤮


----------



## JohnDe (23 October 2022)

frugal.rock said:


> Yes, but it's more about the aggregate of time wasted. +10 seconds and counting.
> Will we ever know the true and real cost?
> 🤮




It only counts when labeled and directed at a specific


----------



## basilio (30 October 2022)

Black Swan events.  We've heard of them. We know they happen. Hw seiously do we  take precaustions ? Are we just too fed up and stressed out to recognise the signs that indicate  potential disasters. ?

Should we have predicted Black Swan events like COVID and the war in Ukraine? Where is the next crisis coming from?​By Stan Grant
Posted 9h ago9 hours ago, updated 8h ago8 hours ago


 A Ukrainian serviceman looks out from inside a tank and as the war with Russian rages it's not unthinkable that Vladimir Putin will unleash nuclear weapons.(Reuters)
Help keep family & friends informed by sharing this article

Who predicted the 2008 global financial crash? COVID? The war in Ukraine?

Of course, some did. Hollywood gave us a taste of a global respiratory pandemic in the 2011 film, Contagion.

Some economists saw the unravelling of the financial markets and the ensuing recession long before it happened.

And we should all have seen Vladimir Putin's war coming. He had already annexed Crimea, he massed troops on the border for months and kept warning he would strike.

But even if we _should _know, we often don't _want _to know. We certainly don't prepare.

These events are what statistician Nassim Taleb popularised as "Black Swans". Why? Because they are outliers. They have extreme impact. What's more, we are all wiser after the event, concocting explanations that make it all seem so predictable.


 Vladimir Putin had warned for months he intended to strike Ukraine yet when he did few were prepared.(Reuters: Russian Defence Ministry)
Another pandemic was always going to happen. We had trial runs with SARS and Swine Flu. How we had erased the history of the so-called "Spanish Flu" pandemic that killed more people than World War I.

Financial crash? Well, Asia's markets collapsed a decade before the GFC.

Let's not forget the Great Depression.
War? When has the world not been at war?
'Black Swan' events are not so rare​








						Black Swans are lurking all over the globe — and we can't say we weren't warned
					

A new list of Black Swan events is lurking everywhere: from war between China and Taiwan, to revolution in Iran, and a global recession. Managing them is a high wire act in which we are a shock away from a fall, writes Stan Grant.




					www.abc.net.au


----------



## divs4ever (30 October 2022)

InsvestoBoy said:


> Wow thanks for bringing this valuable piece of information to our attention, how did you manage to come across this revelation hidden away from other traders?



 not hard to hide it from the traders .. they are fixated on market moves and charts ( 'cos that is where their income comes from )

 however  there are plenty  with exposure to the share-market ( often via their super-funds ) , whether they care or not


----------



## divs4ever (30 October 2022)

basilio said:


> Black Swan events.  We've heard of them. We know they happen. Hw seiously do we  take precaustions ? Are we just too fed up and stressed out to recognise the signs that indicate  potential disasters. ?
> 
> Should we have predicted Black Swan events like COVID and the war in Ukraine? Where is the next crisis coming from?​By Stan Grant
> Posted 9h ago9 hours ago, updated 8h ago8 hours ago
> ...



 from my semi-novice  experience   , while black swans are not  so rare ( i agree )  they do normally come from an unexpected angle 

 take for example the virus saga  , i was already super-nervous and watchful over the September 2019  'Repo Crisis ' so was mentally prepared ( and preparing for a BIG down ) 

 i had a fair amount of inverse index plays ( the BEAR family ETFs )  was accumulating some other safe havens  , i just wasn't prepared for the TRIGGER ( government over-reaction )


----------



## mullokintyre (30 October 2022)

basilio said:


> Black Swan events.  We've heard of them. We know they happen. Hw seiously do we  take precaustions ? Are we just too fed up and stressed out to recognise the signs that indicate  potential disasters. ?
> 
> Should we have predicted Black Swan events like COVID and the war in Ukraine? Where is the next crisis coming from?​By Stan Grant
> Posted 9h ago9 hours ago, updated 8h ago8 hours ago
> ...



Folks often talk about Black swan events, but I would suggest  that Stan Grant, along with many others, have never read Nicholas Talebs Book, _Black Swan_.
Taleb argued that because black swan events are impossible to predict due to their extreme rarity, yet have catastrophic consequences, it is important for people to always assume a black swan event is a possibility, whatever it may be, and to try to plan accordingly.
So the idea of predicting Black Swan events  is circuitous logic.
If they are predictable, they are not a Black Swan.
Mick


----------



## divs4ever (30 October 2022)

mullokintyre said:


> Folks often talk about Black swan events, but I would suggest  that Stan Grant, along with many others, have never read Nicholas Talebs Book, _Black Swan_.
> Taleb argued that because black swan events are impossible to predict due to their extreme rarity, yet have catastrophic consequences, it is important for people to always assume a black swan event is a possibility, whatever it may be, and to try to plan accordingly.
> So the idea of predicting Black Swan events  is circuitous logic.
> If they are predictable, they are not a Black Swan.
> Mick



 i would suggest in most cases  the economy is already  nervous and fragile  ( say those watching for a housing market crash )

  since i try to 'channel-trade'  QBE i understand  QBE is only a disaster away from the next share-price drop , sooo at least  have a 'top-up ' target price mentally prepared  ( or as currently a 'low-ball' order sitting in the market already ) .... and just wait for a potential trigger ( and quickly assess if the news is a 'company-killer' or just BAD-news  , from which QBE will recover from in a few years 

 rather than predicting the event , i just try to understand  when the market is robust and rightfully confident  , or nervous , cautious  and living in hope ( and leverage )


----------



## wayneL (30 October 2022)

mullokintyre said:


> Folks often talk about Black swan events, but I would suggest  that Stan Grant, along with many others, have never read Nicholas Talebs Book, _Black Swan_.
> Taleb argued that because black swan events are impossible to predict due to their extreme rarity, yet have catastrophic consequences, it is important for people to always assume a black swan event is a possibility, whatever it may be, and to try to plan accordingly.
> So the idea of predicting Black Swan events  is circuitous logic.
> If they are predictable, they are not a Black Swan.
> Mick



Eggs Ackley.

Though I do believe the *reaction* to the beer bug was a black swan.

To us anyway (maybe that had it planned all along?)


----------



## Smurf1976 (30 October 2022)

mullokintyre said:


> So the idea of predicting Black Swan events is circuitous logic.
> If they are predictable, they are not a Black Swan.



For a lot of this stuff the details aren't predictable but the basic concept most certainly is.

Some major institution will blow themselves up financially.

There will be a bear market.

Interest rates will rise and fall.

Some country that exports oil and/or gas will be involved in a war.

There will be droughts and there will be floods.

And so on. The details are often unforeseeable but the basic occurrence as such is almost certain.


----------



## moXJO (31 October 2022)

Everything was predicted even covid was. It's just there is so many things that could possibly go wrong that it's hard to mass prepare for every situation. You would also keep the general public in a constant fear that would lead to burnout.


----------



## qldfrog (31 October 2022)

moXJO said:


> Everything was predicted even covid was. It's just there is so many things that could possibly go wrong that it's hard to mass prepare for every situation. You would also keep the general public in a constant fear that would lead to burnout.



You guys have no clue at the type of fear mongering in France in the last 5y 
 roughly the Macron (Reset stooge) years : 
terrorism first, then covid covid, then Ukraine and power and alongside that: global warning
 we are doomed 24/7.
It is cold :CC, it is warm: CC, mosquito: CC.
basically their ABC storyline but wo the indigenous and feminist/leftist BS: only CC and on all medias..left right state
I suspect this will have a profund influence on the psyche of a whole generation and am 100% sure it influences the market there.
Not that i would touch the EU share markets with a pole this year


----------



## dyna (1 November 2022)

Yeah, today's france 2 tv news claims  3,000 communes  have now amped up the taxe d'habitation for the beloved maison secondaires ( All 3 million of 'em ) from 40% to 60% from next year .
Socialism gone mad.
This lunacy all began with Mitterrand , 40 years ago. Blame that B*stard ....and the millions of dimwits that voted for it!


----------



## divs4ever (1 November 2022)

ahhh , but France has some interesting history , the masses WILL seize power  , and not let lords and barons sell therm out ( unpunished )

 remember who will the strongest EU economy in the coming winter  ( chances are it will not be Hungary )

 if France revolts the EU is done ( because Germany is crumbling )

 BTW  , i am uncomfortable about my current UK  exposure as well


----------



## moXJO (2 November 2022)

moXJO said:


> Petrol prices should be dampening spending as well. Rba will be treading a lot more carefully



I think today's rate rise was sensible. I'm seeing a lot of consumer weakness now and people are beginning to look for bargains.
Between energy prices, fuel, groceries, interest rates, it's having a real affect on the economy.

I don't think jacking rates will do much from here except blow up the economy.


----------



## Smurf1976 (2 November 2022)

moXJO said:


> I don't think jacking rates will do much from here except blow up the economy.



Politicians won't say the words until they have to but my own thinking is that blowing up the economy, a recession, is pretty much inevitable.

There's just too many problems and imbalances needing to be fixed.


----------



## Knobby22 (2 November 2022)

dyna said:


> Yeah, today's france 2 tv news claims  3,000 communes  have now amped up the taxe d'habitation for the beloved maison secondaires ( All 3 million of 'em ) from 40% to 60% from next year .
> Socialism gone mad.
> This lunacy all began with Mitterrand , 40 years ago. Blame that B*stard ....and the millions of dimwits that voted for it!



Communes are  councils for communities, villages. Don't get hung up on the language.

It relates to people having a second residence, particularly foreigners, that they don't live in much. I know someone personally with a house in France. Singapore does the same thing while Victoria charges you if they find it's not being rented out as many homes just sit empty. 300 pounds extra to the local council a year isn't that much if you are rolling in it but I understand why they would whinge coz costs are going up and heavens forbid that their luxury place in France might be seen to be a bad investment.









						French second homes: taxe d’habitation rates continue to rise
					

Many cities and towns have chosen to apply the maximum surtax of 60% for the part  that goes to mairies, often meaning an extra charge of up to €300




					www.connexionfrance.com


----------



## divs4ever (2 November 2022)

Smurf1976 said:


> Politicians won't say the words until they have to but my own thinking is that blowing up the economy, a recession, is pretty much inevitable.
> 
> There's just too many problems and imbalances needing to be fixed.



 yes , i agree ( except for , i think we are already in that recession  , and the powers are in denial )


----------



## moXJO (2 November 2022)

Smurf1976 said:


> Politicians won't say the words until they have to but my own thinking is that blowing up the economy, a recession, is pretty much inevitable.
> 
> There's just too many problems and imbalances needing to be fixed.



Yeah agree. 
It's hard to see how we get out of this one by coming up roses. 

I haven't checked savings rates. But I'm seeing a lot of people (younger people in particular) just saying stuff saving money because you'd never be able to save what's required anyway.

Personally I think we need to massively deflate from here before the system can continue on.


----------



## Knobby22 (2 November 2022)

moXJO said:


> Personally I think we need to massively deflate from here before the system can continue on.



I think you are right unfortunately.


----------



## divs4ever (3 November 2022)

moXJO said:


> Yeah agree.
> It's hard to see how we get out of this one by coming up roses.
> 
> I haven't checked savings rates. But I'm seeing a lot of people (younger people in particular) just saying stuff saving money because you'd never be able to save what's required anyway.
> ...




 i was thinking the younger generations  were resisting buying a home  , because of reducing job security  , or bosses insisting you move interstate ( or overseas )  to get that promotion ( or just keep the job )

 did i get that entirely wrong  ??

 i like your deflation solution , but i think they will drag us into a MAJOR war ( so we forget how badly they stuffed up )


----------



## wayneL (3 November 2022)

moXJO said:


> Personally I think we need to massively deflate from here before the system can continue on.



Yep the Austrians are right in this count, creative destruction and all that.

So long as there are no stupid bailouts.


----------



## divs4ever (3 November 2022)

wayneL said:


> Yep the Austrians are right in this count, creative destruction and all that.
> 
> So long as there are no stupid bailouts.



 of course there will be selective bail-outs  ( maybe  secret ones this time )

 2020  showed the new way  K-shaped recoveries ( and smash more middle class  , that's why Scotty from marketing got his [ marching orders ] )

 but that won't solve the underlying problems


----------



## Smurf1976 (3 November 2022)

divs4ever said:


> but that won't solve the underlying problems



Looking at the world around me, I see lots of things that are or have recently been at a point where they really can't go much further.

Housing affordability.

Energy.

Stock valuations.

Interest rates.

All have been at some sort of true extreme in recent times in Australia and/or other Western countries and all need pretty drastic change to get back to anything that would count as "normal" in the historical context.


----------



## divs4ever (3 November 2022)

Smurf1976 said:


> Looking at the world around me, I see lots of things that are or have recently been at a point where they really can't go much further.
> 
> Housing affordability.
> 
> ...



 i have been thinking that  since the start of 2013 , but here we are 

 i was certain March 2020 was the 'BIG one'  , but nope they  pulled out a K-shaped recovery


----------



## Dona Ferentes (16 November 2022)

Deliveroo has announced it will "immediately" cease operations in Australia after seven years.
A sudden announcement dropped in subscribers' inboxes this afternoon with a statement confirming that the company will "permanently cease trading immediately".
By the time the statement landed, the mobile app had already stopped taking orders.

_Never understood the business model. Will all those doing delivery lose their _'special skills'_ visas?_


----------



## Smurf1976 (16 November 2022)

Dona Ferentes said:


> Deliveroo has announced it will "immediately" cease operations in Australia after seven years.
> A sudden announcement dropped in subscribers' inboxes this afternoon with a statement confirming that the company will "permanently cease trading immediately".



The question is what changed?

What happened to prompt an immediate shutdown?

A business ceasing to trade is of itself unremarkable but to do so with zero notice, just an announcement that it's now shut, is unusual and poses questions as to the reasons?


----------



## frugal.rock (16 November 2022)

Dona Ferentes said:


> Deliveroo has announced it will "immediately" cease operations in Australia after seven years.





Smurf1976 said:


> A business ceasing to trade is of itself unremarkable but to do so with zero notice, just an announcement that it's now shut, is unusual and poses questions as to the reasons?



Call me cynical...

Who is the main competition?
Who stands to gain from it?

It's likely that the shutdown is a forced hand, otherwise they might have had to pay plenty of unpaid wages/ benefits, due to the employment/ engagement contracts of staff.

Were they based in Victoria? 🙄🤨🧐😤


----------



## frugal.rock (16 November 2022)

Yes, they were based in Victoria.
The creditors are based in Victoria also.


----------



## The Triangle (16 November 2022)

frugal.rock said:


> Who is the main competition?
> Who stands to gain from it?
> 
> It's likely that the shutdown is a forced hand, otherwise they might have had to pay plenty of unpaid wages/ benefits, due to the employment/ engagement contracts of staff.
> ...



I don't think I ever used Deliveroo but I used ubereats and doordash for a while, but when their costs skyrocketed 12+ months ago and the offers for 50% off, or $10 off, or free delivery evaporated, I stopped.  I couldn't see how these companies make money when I'm essentially getting 25 minutes of some broke overseas students' time for $2.99 to $5.99 to fetch me a pizza or for a $12 subscription. 

It feels like we've entered a period where the economy will revert back to the natural invest $1 today for $1.10 tomorrow rather than invest $1 today for 1 million users tomorrow who we might be able to monetize for >$1.00 the day after tomorrow.  The market was content for the past 15 years to keep pouring money into loss making businesses with the hope they'd grow so massive they could move all the users to 'subscriptions' and make a killing.  But the models, estimates, and assumptions are wrong, and people just aren't going to spend $1000 a month on all their subscriptions for everything (like deliveroo, uber eats, Netflix, stan, foxtel, Microsoft 365, amazon, twitter blue tick, lite-n-eazy, all the wine, food, razors, 'hampers' etc. etc. etc) and the investors can't afford to keep blowing billions and billions on loss makers.


----------



## Dona Ferentes (16 November 2022)

Deliveroo is listed on the London Stock Exchange. It launched in Australia in 2015 with headquarters in Melbourne, and recently expanded into grocery delivery with partners BP and EzyMart.

Had 120 staff and 15,000 riders, delivering for 12,000 restaurants.

Main competitors (macro):  DoorDash rcently has been spending big to get a foothold, plus the other names are Uber Eats and Menulog. Of course they have cannibalised the local non digital (_phone an order and send out the driver_) suburban outfits.

Uber and DoorDash have negotiated with the TWU concerning employee / contractor staus. Deliveroo has been arguing (as far as the High Court) on these matters.


----------



## Dona Ferentes (19 November 2022)

And another unsustainable model


----------



## divs4ever (19 November 2022)

does that mean  unemployment rates will rise ( by a noticeable  amount )

just asking because the official figures don't reflect the street view i see


----------



## JohnDe (19 November 2022)

This is the period when zombie companies and poorly managed business go under. 

My wife and I went out for dinner Thursday night to celebrate our anniversary. Thursday nights is usually a very busy night in the up-market suburb, the restaurant we went to was probably at about 70% capacity, perfect in my view. We walked home, about a 40-minute walk, as we passed the restaurant precinct, we noticed that almost all the places were almost empty. I cannot recall ever seeing it like that on a Thursday night. As we got closer to home, we came to another restaurant precinct and the place was buzzing.

What was the difference? Price and service. Those restaurants in the first precinct have had it good for a very long time, and their prices are higher than most, but the service has not kept up. 

I think that the Reserve bank's interest hikes are starting to work, and people are minimising their discretionary purchases.

Another interesting thing we saw on the night, a For Rent sign on a residential property. Haven't seen one of those for a quite a while.


----------



## JohnDe (19 November 2022)

Local paper has a full page add with 9 properties up for auction - 
*Sale of land for non-payment of rates*
_
        (1)         If an amount payable by way of rates in respect of land has been in arrears for three years or more, the council may sell the land._


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## wayneL (19 November 2022)

divs4ever said:


> does that mean  unemployment rates will rise ( by a noticeable  amount )
> 
> just asking because the official figures don't reflect the street view i see



Pro tip:

Never believe government stats


----------



## InsvestoBoy (19 November 2022)

Went out for yum cha this morning with some friends and family, we always go early to make sure we don't have to wait. There was no line at the restaurant but all the parking nearby was full up, we had to park far away and walk!

By the time we left 2 hours later the place was buzzing with families and couples having a great time.

Went to the nearby shopping centre, packed full of people shopping eating and having fun.

Went to the city multiple times this week for work, busy and lively every day I was there.

Strong urge to buy stocks on all occasions.

A lot of pessimism and negativity in this thread. I feel the same when I spend time on the internet, but whenever I've gone out this year, consumer economy seems pumping.

Take a look at the XNT chart for 2022, if you never spent any time on the internet and just spent your time looking on the street, you would've been crazy to not treat all these vol events as buying opportunities.


----------



## wayneL (19 November 2022)

I am getting increasingly bullish based on what I am seeing in the local economy (plus other analysis)... Although I wouldn't call it burgeoning, I would call it robust.

... And, I have had several clients now telling me that I should be increasing my prices and/or handing me the folding stuff and telling me to keep the change.

My caper can tend to be price sensitive at times (relative to other practitioners), but it seems to be less so at the moment.

I've been buying stocks tbh.

Surely a signal for you all to sell everything.


----------



## JohnDe (19 November 2022)

wayneL said:


> Pro tip:
> 
> Never believe government stats




Yes, because there is no truth out there & everyone is out to get us. Donald Trump & Nostradamus warned us 🤪


----------



## divs4ever (19 November 2022)

wayneL said:


> Pro tip:
> 
> Never believe government stats



 had a relative in a government agency  , that assisted in data collection  , back in 1989 

 and i was bequeathed  a lot of stuff , including documentation on the ( new )  way to collect data ( back then )

 i have little doubt data collection procedures  have been changed since ( again , and again , and again )

makes me wonder about CPI as well , since a whole lot of calculations automatically depend on the number


----------



## divs4ever (19 November 2022)

InsvestoBoy said:


> Went out for yum cha this morning with some friends and family, we always go early to make sure we don't have to wait. There was no line at the restaurant but all the parking nearby was full up, we had to park far away and walk!
> 
> By the time we left 2 hours later the place was buzzing with families and couples having a great time.
> 
> ...



 wait and see if the Christmas lock-downs return  , can't  have the Aussie economy humming when the EU ( and UK ) have just rounded the S-bend


----------



## Smurf1976 (19 November 2022)

InsvestoBoy said:


> whenever I've gone out this year, consumer economy seems pumping.



Local shopping centre is now full, every shop has something in it, for the first time in the 4 years I've lived here.


----------



## wayneL (19 November 2022)

JohnDe said:


> Yes, because there is no truth out there & everyone is out to get us. Donald Trump & Nostradamus warned us 🤪



It's up to you, bro. But as a good postmodernist, I would have thought you would have embraced Foucault's view on truth?


----------



## JohnDe (19 November 2022)

wayneL said:


> It's up to you, bro. But as a good postmodernist, I would have thought you would have embraced Foucault's view on truth?




Yes the world is a lie, we’re all living a lie, they have infiltrated our minds, it’s the Matrix 😱


----------



## moXJO (20 November 2022)

Everywhere still struggling with workers.

Lots of bosses starting to struggle with bills.
Tradie I know that  runs his own business tried to neck himself on Thursday. Bills got on top of him. 

All the businesses that were not run well are starting to get ground out as conditions become less optimal.


----------



## divs4ever (20 November 2022)

moXJO said:


> Everywhere still struggling with workers.
> 
> Lots of bosses starting to struggle with bills.
> Tradie I know that  runs his own business tried to neck himself on Thursday. Bills got on top of him.
> ...



 but that is how it should be ( apart from the increase in suicides/attempts )

 the strongest ( or cleverest ) survive , get too big , and leak quality workers/tradies  to start off on their own  ( so overall the entire industry improves , or goes into obsolescence )


----------



## moXJO (21 November 2022)

divs4ever said:


> but that is how it should be ( apart from the increase in suicides/attempts )
> 
> the strongest ( or cleverest ) survive , get too big , and leak quality workers/tradies  to start off on their own  ( so overall the entire industry improves , or goes into obsolescence )



Agree.

 It feels like money is drying up a bit. Then I go somewhere and it sometimes looks like it's booming.

However:
 the Cafes that were catering to the pensioners  market are getting hammered for obvious reasons. 

Families with kids seem to be spending less ( up on groceries).

Young people spending up because they can't afford a house anyway.

Franchises that employ young people seem to be having trouble. Family owned stores seem to be doing better.


----------



## divs4ever (21 November 2022)

moXJO said:


> Agree.
> 
> It feels like money is drying up a bit. Then I go somewhere and it sometimes looks like it's booming.
> 
> ...



 i am only guessing  ( because gear old mum owned a small business several decades ago )

 but a business often works out a way  to keep some reserves ( either cash and durable goods , or other assets  that still hold value ) that does not make them immune  but does make them more durable in the harsh times  , but is this a cycle , or an era ( decades long )

 look closer  and see what is selling   ( i am still buying but very selective what i buy )

 remember some folks would see the infamous WEF ad  differently to others ( why buy a house when there will be no future security  , just asking , but the WEF only offers sticks no carrots , just like a typical Bolshevik system )

 they offer a NWO , and all i see is a centralized oligarchy


----------



## Value Collector (22 November 2022)

Smurf1976 said:


> Local shopping centre is now full, every shop has something in it, for the first time in the 4 years I've lived here.



Industrial property rents are up 22% this year on average, demand for warehouse and distribution properties has never been higher.


----------



## wayneL (22 November 2022)

In contrast to my previous post, bloke across the road runs (or rather used to) a boutique winery/micro brewery, plus some sort of property company.

All have gone under from McStalin's lockdowns and I am watching his mental health go down the shyte chute.

A couple of doors up, another winery with a well regarded restaurant of long standing tried to sell. No bites.

Missus was in Perth City for the first time in ages the other day, reckoned it had the smell of (financial) death... and urine.

She sees more of the general economy at street level than I do, and she thinks there is a thin veneer of good times, but underneath that, things are crap.

In other news, we had a feast of chicken, silverbeet, tomato, and beans, all harvested from our own property tonight.

No WEF crickets for Mr and Mrs wayneL 

FWIW


----------



## wayneL (22 November 2022)

wayneL said:


> In contrast to my previous post, bloke across the road runs (or rather used to) a boutique winery/micro brewery, plus some sort of property company.
> 
> All have gone under from McStalin's lockdowns and I am watching his mental health go down the shyte chute.
> 
> ...





But, again on the other hand, property in the Swan Valley still running hot.


----------



## qldfrog (22 November 2022)

wayneL said:


> But, again on the other hand, property in the Swan Valley still running hot.



Because a lot of Mr Waynes want to share a feast of homegrown chicken,beans etc....
Do you prefer the poverty of cities slum or peasant farms?
In time of crisos, you know who eat,sleep under a roof and keep warms even with 0 dollars in his account


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## Value Collector (22 November 2022)

qldfrog said:


> In time of crisos, you know who eat,sleep under a roof and keep warms even with 0 dollars in his account



Depends on what sort of crisis, in this land of droughts, fires and flooding rain rural people often need a lot of assistance.


----------



## moXJO (22 November 2022)

Value Collector said:


> Industrial property rents are up 22% this year on average, demand for warehouse and distribution properties has never been higher.



This is huge at the moment. They can't build fast enough to cover demand.


----------



## Value Collector (22 November 2022)

moXJO said:


> This is huge at the moment. They can't build fast enough to cover demand.



Also Limited Zoning available around Sydney and Melbourne Transport corridors.


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## qldfrog (22 November 2022)

Value Collector said:


> Depends on what sort of crisis, in this land of droughts, fires and flooding rain rural people often need a lot of assistance.



True vs systematic ongoing help for city people poors and addicts
And a lot of Aboriginal communities included in rural population or pensioners moving out for cheaper rent
Not the same people as the ones buying in Noosa or Byron hinterland or are Mr Wayne customers in WA😊


----------



## Value Collector (22 November 2022)

qldfrog said:


> True vs systematic ongoing help for city people poors and addicts
> And a lot of Aboriginal communities included in rural population or pensioners moving out for cheaper rent
> Not the same people as the ones buying in Noosa or Byron hinterland or are Mr Wayne customers in WA😊




I think there is a lot of on going systemic help for both Rural and city people alike when it comes human problems like addiction, health, education, unemployment etc. I think its flawed thinking to assume that those sorts of issues only affect the weak little city folk and not the big strong country folk.

But the comment I made was in regards to whether owning a little rural estate can insulate you from the worlds troubles, and its true to some extent it can insulate you against some economic turmoil provided you own it debt free, but so can owning a city property. As I pointed out though while you might enjoy the economic insulation afforded by a rural estate, the Natural disasters might more than offset that. Bushfires and droughts tend to occur more frequently than economic disasters that would cause a stoppage in economic activity that would cause city folk to starve.


----------



## Dona Ferentes (22 November 2022)

Lack of services . Here there and everywhere.








						This town's hospital soon won't have a single doctor, and residents don't know what they're going to do
					

As yet another Tasmanian community loses its local GP, a group of senior citizens calls for more incentives for young doctors willing to work in rural areas.




					www.abc.net.au


----------



## Value Collector (22 November 2022)

Farmers can actual receive financial support from the government, not many other businesses get that kind of support.



			https://www.servicesaustralia.gov.au/farm-household-allowance


----------



## Value Collector (22 November 2022)

Dona Ferentes said:


> Lack of services . Here there and everywhere.
> 
> 
> 
> ...



Yep, so that is another argument against the rural estate being a great place to shelter from economic disaster, if folks in the rural areas have a heart attack, they rely on a flying doctor to get them to the city. thats quite a bit of cash support in that alone, that might not be there if the city folk doing the fund raising can't afford to support it anymore.


----------



## divs4ever (22 November 2022)

Value Collector said:


> Yep, so that is another argument against the rural estate being a great place to shelter from economic disaster, if folks in the rural areas have a heart attack, they rely on a flying doctor to get them to the city. thats quite a bit of cash support in that alone, that might not be there if the city folk doing the fund raising can't afford to support it anymore.



just as well i still have my books on herbalism then  , maybe i should check for online acupuncture course as well .

hmmm , might have to check the local river ( to the semi-rural  property ) for willow-trees as well  ( good luck relying on the phone signal down there )


----------



## qldfrog (22 November 2022)

Value Collector said:


> Farmers can actual receive financial support from the government, not many other businesses get that kind of support.
> 
> 
> 
> https://www.servicesaustralia.gov.au/farm-household-allowance




You mean such as Qantas?😊


----------



## Craton (22 November 2022)

Value Collector said:


> Yep, so that is another argument against the rural estate being a great place to shelter from economic disaster, if folks in the rural areas have a heart attack, they rely on a flying doctor to get them to the city. thats quite a bit of cash support in that alone, that might not be there if the city folk doing the fund raising can't afford to support it anymore.



That "mantle of safety" called the RFDS has always been my number one charity.
A lot of support comes from the communities the RFDS service plus, from major companies especially those with FIFO crews.


----------



## Value Collector (22 November 2022)

Craton said:


> That "mantle of safety" called the RFDS has always been my number one charity.
> A lot of support comes from the communities the RFDS service plus, from major companies especially those with FIFO crews.



Yep, its one of my charities too, along with Ronald McDonald house, I have had family west of the blue mountains rely on both.


----------



## Value Collector (22 November 2022)

qldfrog said:


> You mean such as Qantas?😊



The farm household Allowance is a permanent feature, not just a once in a century response to a global pandemic, no such luck if you are a small cafe owner or own any other small or medium business and fall on hard times. Australia seems to have a soft spot for farmers, more so than any other businessmen.

But I mainly brought up the farm household allowance because of the suggestion that living on some agricultural land some how insulated you from economic trouble, which is obviously doesn't unless all these farmers crying poor are taking us for a ride.


----------



## Craton (22 November 2022)

Value Collector said:


> The farm household Allowance is a permanent feature, not just a once in a century response to a global pandemic, no such luck if you are a small cafe owner or own any other small or medium business and fall on hard times. Australia seems to have a soft spot for farmers, more so than any other businessmen.
> 
> But I mainly brought up the farm household allowance because of the suggestion that living on some agricultural land some how insulated you from economic trouble, which is obviously doesn't unless all these farmers crying poor are taking us for a ride.



The allowance mentioned would be to safe guard primary production surely?


----------



## wayneL (22 November 2022)

Just FYI gents. The wayneL Ponderosa is exactly 27km from the CBD by road, so best of both worlds (even if I do avoid the 'burbs as much as possible)


----------



## Value Collector (22 November 2022)

Craton said:


> The allowance mentioned would be to safe guard primary production surely?



Why single out farmers? why not afford the same protection to the truck drivers? or bakers? or fishermen? green grocers? mechanics? etc etc.

I know we all like to put farmers on a pedestal in Australia, but they fact is they are just one part of a complete system/supply chain of businesses that we all rely on.

In fact the main people that benefit from the farming allowance are the small, under capitalised and inefficient farmers, Allowing them to go bankrupt or move on might be good for the system as their farms will probably be amalgamated into the larger operations that can sustain themselves through the ups and downs.

It seems harsh to say "let them go bankrupt", but we treat all other small businesses like that.


----------



## SirRumpole (22 November 2022)

Value Collector said:


> Why single out farmers? why not afford the same protection to the truck drivers? or bakers? or fishermen? green grocers? mechanics? etc etc.
> 
> I know we all like to put farmers on a pedestal in Australia, but they fact is they are just one part of a complete system/supply chain of businesses that we all rely on.
> 
> ...



Well, people have to eat, and I'd rather a few barristers lose their jobs than the food supply is reduced.


----------



## Craton (22 November 2022)

Value Collector said:


> Why single out farmers? why not afford the same protection to the truck drivers? or bakers? or fishermen? green grocers? mechanics? etc etc.
> 
> I know we all like to put farmers on a pedestal in Australia, but they fact is they are just one part of a complete system/supply chain of businesses that we all rely on.
> 
> ...



I hear what you're saying and understand but without the primary producers there'd be no jobs for a lot us and most would starve.
BTW according to the ATO fishermen are Primary Producers too.

I do see your point though.


----------



## Value Collector (22 November 2022)

SirRumpole said:


> Well, people have to eat,



So they will need Truckers, Bakers, Mechanics, etc etc, as. I said why single out farmers.

Allowing a few small, undercapitalised farming businesses to fail won't affect the food supply, just like letting a few small bakeries go bust won't affect the supply of bread. In fact it might even increase production as the land is passed on to the more efficient well capitalised producers.


----------



## Value Collector (22 November 2022)

Craton said:


> I hear what you're saying and understand but without the primary producers there'd be no jobs for a lot us and most would starve.
> BTW according to the ATO fishermen are Primary Producers too.
> 
> I do see your point though.



As I said to Rum pole above, There would still be a lot of primary production and farming happening, it just wouldn't be by the little inefficient guys.

Yes fishermen are primary producers as are miners, but neither qualify for the farm household allowance.


----------



## Value Collector (22 November 2022)

I am sure Dave here is a great guy, and I hope his tomato growing business does well, and he makes some money.




But, if Dave ever ends up getting into the situation where he can only keep his tomato farming running if he gets a fortnightly payment from the government, then I think he should sell his farm to a larger business that can invest the capital required to make a go of it, and employ more people such as the example Below.

Hell Dave can probably even get a job with the corporate farmer he sold out to and recieve a regular stress free pay check with super benefits and holiday pay.


----------



## SirRumpole (22 November 2022)

Value Collector said:


> So they will need Truckers, Bakers, Mechanics, etc etc, as. I said why single out farmers.
> 
> Allowing a few small, undercapitalised farming businesses to fail won't affect the food supply, just like letting a few small bakeries go bust won't affect the supply of bread. In fact it might even increase production as the land is passed on to the more efficient well capitalised producers.



Just because someone is affected by natural disasters doesn't mean they are inefficient, they have probably been producing for decades until a temporary situation catches up with them.


----------



## wayneL (22 November 2022)

Let's apply the same rules to financial institutions and other "too-big-to-fail" companies.

Seriously I would be in that.


----------



## Value Collector (22 November 2022)

SirRumpole said:


> Just because someone is affected by natural disasters doesn't mean they are inefficient, they have probably been producing for decades until a temporary situation catches up with them.



The farming allowance isn't for natural disasters, there is separate disaster relief payments that farmers get for that which I am not arguing against, all though I believe it should be applied to all businesses that are affected.

Farmers can apply for the farming allowance when ever they find that they are running into financial trouble, it can simply be because the market price of the products they grow drops below their cost of production, or they have to much debt, or any other reason.


----------



## Value Collector (22 November 2022)

wayneL said:


> Let's apply the same rules to financial institutions and other "too-big-to-fail" companies.
> 
> Seriously I would be in that.



I would be happy with that, but what you are talking about there is not really valid for two reasons.

1, the GFC type situation is more akin to freak natural disaster, not an all season allowance that can be applied for any time.

2, The "Bail Outs' weren't a hand out, they were loans and asset sales and the central bank and the government actually made money from it, while share holders/owners in most situations lost a lot of their investment, so paid the price for their sins and more.


----------



## wayneL (22 November 2022)

Value Collector said:


> 1, the GFC type situation is more akin to freak natural disaster



Uhhh, more like self harm. GFC was completely predictable (not exactly when but that it would eventually happen) and all of us were sitting around in in our pyjamas and scratching our balls, knowing it was going to happen in some way.

Let the ASF record show....


----------



## Value Collector (22 November 2022)

wayneL said:


> Uhhh, more like self harm. GFC was completely predictable (not exactly when but that it would eventually happen) and all of us were sitting around in in our pyjamas and scratching our balls, knowing it was going to happen in some way.
> 
> Let the ASF record show....



Floods are predictable, as are bush fires and droughts, what’s your point?

Still it changes nothing, as I said the “bailouts” were not hand outs, the Fed and the US government profited from the loans and asset sales that were labelled bail outs, and the share holders took a hit. 

Also, the whole point of the Fed is to bail out the banking system, and it uses the banks own deposits to do it.


----------



## macca (22 November 2022)

wayneL said:


> Uhhh, more like self harm. GFC was completely predictable (not exactly when but that it would eventually happen) and all of us were sitting around in in our pyjamas and scratching our balls, knowing it was going to happen in some way.
> 
> Let the ASF record show....



A true story about if the GFC was predictable  

At that time a daughter was employed at a Listed Fund owned by a big $ bank, at a board meeting it was stated that no one could have predicted the GFC.

She quietly said to her workmate ( I don't know about that, my father took 6 figures out of stocks, he told me it was coming and the forums were all saying When not if)

She copped a few filthy looks from her superiors and they then voted to suspend fund withdrawals for a few more months.

Two friends both said we were all wrong, I said I am a chicken I am 95% out, good luck

One lost $700k the other $600k, both in their early sixties, a very bad time to take a hit

There is another Crunch coming that will be Far worse than that or we could simply sell the world to China in exchange for Mandarin lessons and some chopsticks


----------



## qldfrog (22 November 2022)

Craton said:


> I hear what you're saying and understand but without the primary producers there'd be no jobs for a lot us and most would starve.
> BTW according to the ATO fishermen are Primary Producers too.
> 
> I do see your point though.



Ps none of the producers i know got that allowance nor do I


----------



## Value Collector (22 November 2022)

qldfrog said:


> Ps none of the producers i know got that allowance nor do I



Would they tell you? I am pretty sure most people would not share such personal info unless you are very close, so you might know people that claim it.

Ps None of the city folk I know are drug addicts, nor am I.


----------



## rcw1 (22 November 2022)

rcw1 would live in the bush any day of the week over the city.  Communication by smoke signals, I say...

Kind regards
rcw1


----------



## Smurf1976 (22 November 2022)

wayneL said:


> GFC was completely predictable (not exactly when but that it would eventually happen)



I distinctly recall reading a fairly extensive article in 2002 on the subject. It went into a lot of detail and specifics about the US mortgage lenders, the automotive manufacturers, investment banks and so on.

Reading that article opened my eyes big time at the time, even more so when it turned out to be alarmingly accurate some years later.

A couple of years later, about 2004, at least two websites emerged compiling information specifically on a real estate crash they'd foreseen, focusing on the US and UK. One was still around in 2007 and at that point compiling a list of failed mortgage lenders - a list that was rapidly growing by the end of that year indicating the proverbial was hitting the fan. 

The GFC wasn't simply predictable, it was actually predicted and documented in real time well before it hit the headlines.


----------



## sptrawler (23 November 2022)

The state of the economy according to the RBA.









						Price Stability, the Supply Side and Prosperity | Speeches
					

Speech delivered by Philip Lowe, Governor, CEDA Annual Dinner Address, Melbourne




					www.rba.gov.au


----------



## macca (23 November 2022)

sptrawler said:


> The state of the economy according to the RBA.
> 
> 
> 
> ...




This bloke is a good example of what happens when seniority decides who gets to be Boss.

Absolutely no imagination, forethought or planning, he seems to struggle with the concept that Australia is an independent economy with its own special quirks 

Our RBA needs to actually make decisions relevant to us not wait for others to pat us on the head or hold our hand

I have booed from the side lines ever since he got there but at least he is consistent, too late going down and too late going up.


----------



## divs4ever (23 November 2022)

rcw1 said:


> rcw1 would live in the bush any day of the week over the city.  Communication by smoke signals, I say...
> 
> Kind regards
> rcw1



 flashing mirrors work on sunny days ( as well )

 some might still have CB radios ( from their trucks and tractors )

 but could you survive without your daily (over-) dose of ads


----------



## Smurf1976 (24 November 2022)

moXJO said:


> It feels like money is drying up a bit. Then I go somewhere and it sometimes looks like it's booming



Perhaps it’s just the ads I get served up online but it seems that this “black friday” sale thing is being really pushed hard this year by some retailers.

Those selling durable goods mostly. Furniture, appliances and so on. The kind of thing consumers generally don’t actually need to buy at any particular time and which are substantial purchase decisions.

I’ve also heard reports of builders starting to drop prices.

So I think it’s really quite mixed. Some sectors are booming, others seem to be struggling.


----------



## Value Collector (2 December 2022)

Smurf1976 said:


> Perhaps it’s just the ads I get served up online but it seems that this “black friday” sale thing is being really pushed hard this year by some retailers.
> 
> Those selling durable goods mostly. Furniture, appliances and so on. The kind of thing consumers generally don’t actually need to buy at any particular time and which are substantial purchase decisions.
> 
> ...



Black Friday is an American Concept that has been growing steadily here for the last 10 years or so. This year was definitely the biggest year so far.

It’s the Friday after thanks giving, and often thought of as the beginning of the Christmas shopping season.

We don’t celebrate thanks giving here, but some how Black Friday has taken off, at first is was an online thing here that over flowed from Amazon and other online American retailers, but now it’s gone main stream.


----------



## divs4ever (2 December 2022)

Value Collector said:


> Black Friday is an American Concept that has been growing steadily here for the last 10 years or so. This year was definitely the biggest year so far.
> 
> It’s the Friday after thanks giving, and often thought of as the beginning of the Christmas shopping season.
> 
> We don’t celebrate thanks giving here, but some how Black Friday has taken off, at first is was an online thing here that over flowed from Amazon and other online American retailers, but now it’s gone main stream.



there would be some retailers overstocked  by delayed goods trapped by the virus/lock-down  bottleneck , so am guessing some would try to  piggy-back  Black Friday ( hype ) to reduce inventory , just in case this Xmas bites ( in a nasty way )


----------



## Dona Ferentes (10 December 2022)

Xmas sales .... anecdote . Neighbour works for Hasbro, major toy wholesaler/ importer, and says sales are less than sluggish. Buyers either going down price or reducing the number, from say 3 to only one $50 pressie. 

Of course this is all stock that was decided on months or even a year ago; the big challenge they're facing is the next season's orders  . Things looking very glum


----------



## rcw1 (10 December 2022)

Dona Ferentes said:


> Xmas sales .... anecdote . Neighbour works for Hasbro, major toy wholesaler/ importer, and says sales are less than sluggish. Buyers either going down price or reducing the number, from say 3 to only one $50 pressie.
> 
> Of course this is all stock that was decided on months or even a year ago; the big challenge they're facing is the next season's orders  . Things looking very glum



Good evening Dona Ferentes
Here's hoping consumer demand picks up that one week, 10-day block prior to Christmas Day.  

Did venture out today, a rcw1 adventure... hobbled around the Cluden Racetrack in Townsville.  Did notice no reduction in patrons from previously sorties.... Same bookies and the beer was nice and cold... too, some things never change ha ha ha ha

Have a safe and happy Christmas and prosperous 2023.

Kind regards
rcw1


----------



## sptrawler (11 December 2022)

All my kids, very low key, not the normal enthusiasm.


----------



## wayneL (11 December 2022)

Was at the local shopping centre yesterday (Saturday) with my Mrs.

Easy parking, normal activity etc, but then remembered about Xmas. With that in mind, it seemed dead quiet.


----------



## divs4ever (11 December 2022)

wayneL said:


> Was at the local shopping centre yesterday (Saturday) with my Mrs.
> 
> Easy parking, normal activity etc, but then remembered about Xmas. With that in mind, it seemed dead quiet.



i am guessing the folks in your area are ( at least partially ) financially savvy 

 here , it is like the lunch room at the UN , ethic folk from  all over the globe 

 so harder to judge the festive seasons  , that dominant retail  , but the local shops NOT bursting with activity when i visit in the middle of the working days,  maybe they are hoping for last minute mark-downs ( on the perishable stuff )


----------



## Smurf1976 (11 December 2022)

I’m seeing mixed signals.

Major events seem to be drawing huge crowds no matter what the event is. Even decidely “has been” acts seem to have no trouble drawing a crowd.

On the other hand I’ve noticed a definite quietness outside on weekends. Quietness as in sound - the sum total of road traffic, mowers, building works and so on has definitely diminished. It’s quieter.

Also I’ve noticed a change in advertising. Definitely more for things like tyres, car maintenance, household maintenance, cleaning services and so on. So I assume demand is dropping off somewhat.


----------



## moXJO (11 December 2022)

I bought 3x playstation 5. Probably blow a large wad of dough on the rest of the presents and helped finance and open a restaurant for one of my wives. I'm literally single-handedly stimulating the economy.

I'm seeing people everywhere when it comes to restaurants and grocery stores. Not so much the big stores.


----------



## divs4ever (11 December 2022)

moXJO said:


> I bought 3x playstation 5. Probably blow a large wad of dough on the rest of the presents and helped finance and open a restaurant for one of my wives. I'm literally single-handedly stimulating the economy.
> 
> I'm seeing people everywhere when it comes to restaurants and grocery stores. Not so much the big stores.



i still have my Playstation 2 ( and working back up ) both modded 

 antique yes but doubles as my DVD/CD player 

 am being very strategic with cash reserves


----------



## sptrawler (11 December 2022)

moXJO said:


> I bought 3x playstation 5. Probably blow a large wad of dough on the rest of the presents and helped finance and open a restaurant for one of my wives. I'm literally single-handedly stimulating the economy.
> 
> I'm seeing people everywhere when it comes to restaurants and grocery stores. Not so much the big stores.



Brave man, one of your wives? I had my 46th wedding anniversary on Friday, there is no way I could afford anymore than one. 🤣


----------



## Belli (12 December 2022)

moXJO said:


> blow a large wad of dough




I've done my bit for the bank balance through buying a number of books for presents as well splurging out for on a lens for my camera.


----------



## wayneL (12 December 2022)

Our family has said no presents this Christmas. A few of the younger ones have hocked themselves up to the eyeballs on real estate, so money is tight.

wayneL, being a curmudgeon about the secular form of Christmas, is happy. (The grog shop may do well though  )


----------



## qldfrog (12 December 2022)

wayneL said:


> Our family has said no presents this Christmas. A few of the younger ones have hocked themselves up to the eyeballs on real estate, so money is tight.
> 
> wayneL, being a curmudgeon about the secular form of Christmas, is happy. (The grog shop may do well though  )



Tintarra Mc Laren Vale Shiraz was 1/2 price at BWS..that is doing my xmas....But no big spend indeed


----------



## JohnDe (12 December 2022)

Just got back from the coast. Farmers working day & night to harvest. All holiday accommodation booked solid for next two months.

It will be interesting after the holiday period is over.


----------



## Dona Ferentes (12 December 2022)

qldfrog said:


> Tintarra Mc Laren Vale Shiraz was 1/2 price at BWS..that is doing my xmas...



(After much investigation ) I've found the tiered pricing model for grog outlets has broken down ... Used to be that Dan's was much cheaper than BWS, for WOW, and First Choice then Vintage Cellars and Liquorland (COL). Now the specials are similar around the traps. Liquorland offering $7 off a $70 bill, discounts still apply.... Koonunga hill was $9


----------



## moXJO (12 December 2022)

sptrawler said:


> Brave man, one of your wives? I had my 46th wedding anniversary on Friday, there is no way I could afford anymore than one. 🤣



"Cost" is the least of the problems...


----------



## Smurf1976 (12 December 2022)

JohnDe said:


> All holiday accommodation booked solid for next two months.
> 
> It will be interesting after the holiday period is over.



Holiday accommodation, air travel, major events eg concerts, house renovations are all doing extremely well.

But a common theme with all of those is that the decision and indeed the commitment to it is typically made well in advance of the actual consumption.

Holidays are booked months in advance by many.

Concerts in some cases the tickets were sold as far back as 2019 before the pandemic or were at least sold many months ago before the event.

Renovations if they're major and need council approval well the decision to do it, going through the approvals process, getting quotes for the work etc all takes quite some time. 

In all those cases the present level of consumption reflects consumer sentiment quite some time ago, there's a large lag there, so agree it'll be interesting to see what happens after this holiday season is over.


----------



## Knobby22 (12 December 2022)

Business lunch today at a restaurant in Melbourne CBD. Packed on a Monday.
It is Christmas though. Everyone is taking out clients so probably can't read too much into this.


----------



## sptrawler (12 December 2022)

Knobby22 said:


> Business lunch today at a restaurant in Melbourne CBD. Packed on a Monday.
> It is Christmas though. Everyone is taking out clients so probably can't read too much into this.



Lucky you.


----------



## Belli (16 December 2022)

Anybody looked at the cost of airfares recently?  Luckily I booked the flights back in October.


----------



## divs4ever (16 December 2022)

nope  , have no plans to travel any further than the nearest ( major ) shopping town  until mid January


----------



## JohnDe (16 December 2022)

divs4ever said:


> nope  , have no plans to travel any further than the nearest ( major ) shopping town  until mid January




I had plans to travel OS mid next year with friends, but I changed plans. Instead, I'll be spending my money in our favourite coastal haunt.


----------



## Smurf1976 (16 December 2022)

Belli said:


> Anybody looked at the cost of airfares recently?  Luckily I booked the flights back in October.



They're not cheap at the moment that's for sure. Not ridiculously expensive, but not cheap.

Three domestic flights booked for February.


----------



## sptrawler (16 December 2022)

I booked a trip to U.K, flight to U.K transfers and hotel Southampton, 14 day cruise to see the Northern lights, 3 nights in London on return. Then Eurostar to Paris for a couple of nights, then a river cruise to Budapest and flights home, Oct 2023 $9k each, including drinks package. 🥳


----------



## Smurf1976 (16 December 2022)

sptrawler said:


> I booked a trip to U.K, flight to U.K transfers and hotel Southampton, 14 day cruise to see the Northern lights, 3 nights in London on return. Then Eurostar to Paris for a couple of nights, then a river cruise to Budapest



Well you've beaten me.....   

Best I can do is say I'm going to Melbourne and Sydney, and seeing the same band in each. So three flights Adelaide > Melbourne > Sydney > Adelaide. Plus a hotel in Melbourne.


----------



## sptrawler (16 December 2022)

Smurf1976 said:


> Well you've beaten me.....
> 
> Best I can do is say I'm going to Melbourne and Sydney, and seeing the same band in each. So three flights Adelaide > Melbourne > Sydney > Adelaide. Plus a hotel in Melbourne.



The punch line is, drum roll.
I booked it in oct 2021 mid covid, I said to the wife, "look if it isn't sorted by Oct 2023 and we do our dough, who cares, life as we know it will be over, what's another $20k down the toilet". 🤣


----------



## moXJO (16 December 2022)

sptrawler said:


> I booked a trip to U.K, flight to U.K transfers and hotel Southampton, 14 day cruise to see the Northern lights, 3 nights in London on return. Then Eurostar to Paris for a couple of nights, then a river cruise to Budapest and flights home, Oct 2023 $9k each, including drinks package. 🥳



That's not bad. I've got lazy about travelling.


----------



## sptrawler (16 December 2022)

moXJO said:


> That's not bad. I've got lazy about travelling.



You're probably not time poor, we are.  
Two years out of your life when you're 67, could well be a big chunk.


----------



## divs4ever (17 December 2022)

sptrawler said:


> You're probably not time poor, we are.
> Two years out of your life when you're 67, could well be a big chunk.



but it was filled by plenty of medical appointments to add excitement  ( at least for me ) who knows i might even eventually get those specialist consultations the GP  requested back in 2019 .

but 1990 was enough for me ,   Paris had riots , London had an IRA bombing campaign , Italy had some avalanches


----------



## moXJO (19 December 2022)

Consumer goods seem to be readily available. Supply lines must be back.


----------



## divs4ever (19 December 2022)

moXJO said:


> Consumer goods seem to be readily available. Supply lines must be back.



it MIGHT be delayed consumption as well  , some stories speak of full containers still waiting to be unpacked ( or sitting on the wharf waiting for a truck )

 am watching the Chinese virus antics  and am wondering how much is real health measures and how much is  (side) show


----------



## wayneL (19 December 2022)

moXJO said:


> Consumer goods seem to be readily available. Supply lines must be back.



It's still a bit dodgy over here but good excuses, with regards to rail links, floods in SA and whatnot.

Closer to home, as in, home, we have a glut of tomatoes, zucchinis beans, mulberries, pomegranates.. and soon butternut pumpkins.

Lots of woobla and two microbreweries within staggering distance of home. So no problem getting rat arsed either.


----------



## moXJO (20 December 2022)

divs4ever said:


> it MIGHT be delayed consumption as well  , some stories speak of full containers still waiting to be unpacked ( or sitting on the wharf waiting for a truck )
> 
> am watching the Chinese virus antics  and am wondering how much is real health measures and how much is  (side) show



I went out and bought a bunch of Christmas presents early thinking things might be hard to get again. Many store owners were of the same opinion.

Fast forward to the weekend and many are now saying that their suppliers ended up dumping a bunch of stock on them.

PS5 for example are for the first time on shelves since they came out. They haven't sold out in an instant.

Ipads seems to be in stock. 

A lot of other tech stuff seems to be available.


----------



## qldfrog (20 December 2022)

Firm sells David Jones for $120m after paying $2b eight years ago
					






					www.9news.com.au
				



Nostalgic..RIP


----------



## divs4ever (20 December 2022)

qldfrog said:


> Firm sells David Jones for $120m after paying $2b eight years ago
> 
> 
> 
> ...



i disagree  , they can rot in hell , they screwed over my mother when my dad died ( with the super/long service leave shim-sham and the unions just apologized  , but i got used to unions being a disappointment )

 extra lesson  was, there is little loyalty in big corporations  ( in direct contrast to the small businesses i have worked in )


----------



## moXJO (20 December 2022)

Was recently in one and the service from staff was far above that of anywhere else. Knowledgeable about products, could recommend goods with conviction.
I was shocked as service has been so poor everywhere. But it may possibly be a one off incident.


----------



## moXJO (20 December 2022)

divs4ever said:


> extra lesson  was, there is little loyalty in big corporations



This is very true. Seen a lot of people used up by big corporations.


----------



## JohnDe (20 December 2022)

moXJO said:


> I went out and bought a bunch of Christmas presents early thinking things might be hard to get again. Many store owners were of the same opinion.
> 
> Fast forward to the weekend and many are now saying that their suppliers ended up dumping a bunch of stock on them.
> 
> ...




Several months ago, I posted a report from Cathy Wood about an oversupply issue that was coming to the US. And what happens in America almost always affects us.



> *Cathie Wood: Here's the Biggest Problem Facing Target and Walmart*
> 
> Ark Investing's Cathie Wood thinks both chains have a problem which could be good for consumers, but maybe not investors at least in the short-term.
> DANIEL KLINE MAY 21, 2022
> ...


----------



## divs4ever (20 December 2022)

JohnDe said:


> Several months ago, I posted a report from Cathy Wood about an oversupply issue that was coming to the US. And what happens in America almost always affects us.



i was thinking oversupply + obsolete (out of fashion )  stock this time ,  which products will hold the consumers' desire to acquire , i also see a similar problem at manufacturer level ( but i could be wrong on the last bit )


----------



## The Triangle (20 December 2022)

divs4ever said:


> i was thinking oversupply + obsolete (out of fashion )  stock this time ,  which products will hold the consumers' desire to acquire , i also see a similar problem at manufacturer level ( but i could be wrong on the last bit )



One of the largest shopping differences I noticed between living in Australia vs. US is the complete lack of really good sales, clearances, outlet shops, etc. in Australia. I don't have any proof - but anyone who has spent significant time living in the US knows what I mean.   

Since nothing is really manufactured or built or distributed from Australia and everything has to be shipped in (in relatively small quantities vs a european or american port) I've just assumed that big corporations have decided that the risk of oversupply in Australia is simply not worth it, and the country is better off being at risk of undersupply and keeping profits margins higher at the risk of sales.


----------



## moXJO (21 December 2022)

The Triangle said:


> One of the largest shopping differences I noticed between living in Australia vs. US is the complete lack of really good sales, clearances, outlet shops, etc. in Australia. I don't have any proof - but anyone who has spent significant time living in the US knows what I mean.
> 
> Since nothing is really manufactured or built or distributed from Australia and everything has to be shipped in (in relatively small quantities vs a european or american port) I've just assumed that big corporations have decided that the risk of oversupply in Australia is simply not worth it, and the country is better off being at risk of undersupply and keeping profits margins higher at the risk of sales.



Sales here suck. It's never a real discount.
 Except when that hardware company "masters" shut down. Damn stuff got cheap. Staff didn't care and guys were filling up toolboxes and walking out the door.


----------



## Smurf1976 (25 December 2022)

I'm noticing advertising for home builders is happening again.

That presumably means demand's cooling off somewhat?

Also I'm noticing that vacant land, that which has been sub-divided and is ready for development, isn't exactly selling quickly.


----------



## divs4ever (25 December 2022)

Smurf1976 said:


> I'm noticing advertising for home builders is happening again.
> 
> That presumably means demand's cooling off somewhat?
> 
> Also I'm noticing that vacant land, that which has been sub-divided and is ready for development, isn't exactly selling quickly.



demand OR supply ,  some items ( or fittings ) have been hard to get , it is possible more homes/buildings are finally completed  freeing up capital  and workers 

 affordability  will be the next bottle-neck  most incomes rise slower than costs and interest rates , and one would suspect lenders would be using increased caution  , this could easily become a CASH-buyers market in the near term ( stressed sellers , and limited buyers )

 so do people rent  their own accommodation or employ various sharing strategies ( move back in  with parents/family , perhaps house-share  , or perhaps rent rooms  to spread expenses . )

 this might be a good time  for small project building  ( granny flats, extensions , build in verandas , extra bathrooms  etc )


----------



## wayneL (25 December 2022)

Was out xmas eve, Bunnings etc, went to the pub afterwards. It was eerily quite. Was expecting the usual shxtfight to get parking, but nup.


----------



## divs4ever (25 December 2022)

was relatively normal  in the local shopping-town ( not the local strip malls ) 

 didn't see much evidence of increased online shopping ( deliveries in the street )
 i DID note  the newsagent  had a large number of gift-packs containing scratchies  ( which uplifted me and my hopes for TLC divs in the new year ) , coincidence or an omen ?


----------



## Dona Ferentes (25 December 2022)

Coles was announcing  lobster at $22 several times , over the PA, and that was mid-Fri afternoon.  Must have overordered.


----------



## Knobby22 (25 December 2022)

Dona Ferentes said:


> Coles was announcing  lobster at $22 several times , over the PA, and that was mid-Fri afternoon.  Must have overordered.



Might be worth a look!


----------



## rcw1 (26 December 2022)

Dona Ferentes said:


> Coles was announcing  lobster at $22 several times , over the PA, and that was mid-Fri afternoon.  Must have overordered.



Good morning
Thinking them WA lobsters were supposed to go to China ...
New market in Aus needed.

Have a very nice day today.

Kind regards
rcw1


----------



## frugal.rock (26 December 2022)

If I was in Europe, I would probably be hanging out in a "warm bank", because I'm in Aus, I'm hanging out in a "cold bank" being Macarthur Square. 

Taking in the sights which somewhat involuntarily involves basic stats recording. 🧐🤨😩

Most people leaving with a minimum of 1 shopping bag, average around 3.
Have noticed travel luggage and handbags doing ok and JB Hi-fi pumping.... Clothing and expensive drink's (immediate consumption) doing well also.

I'm personally conserving funds and energy to balance out the wife's behaviour, am even reluctant to get an iced coffee, but annoyance will no doubt soon overcome reluctance. 🤪😅


----------



## farmerge (26 December 2022)

rcw1 said:


> Good morning
> Thinking them WA lobsters were supposed to go to China ...
> New market in Aus needed.
> 
> ...



Appears to be the same as last year Chinese didn't get our crays and wine also, I seem to remember. Local market is the winner.


----------



## farmerge (26 December 2022)

frugal.rock said:


> If I was in Europe, I would probably be hanging out in a "warm bank", because I'm in Aus, I'm hanging out in a "cold bank" being Macarthur Square.
> 
> Taking in the sights which somewhat involuntarily involves basic stats recording. 🧐🤨😩
> 
> ...



Ah frugal.rock Open thy lousy bag and buy thyself an Eskimo Ice😆


----------



## Dona Ferentes (26 December 2022)

frugal.rock said:


> If I was in Europe, I would probably be hanging out in a "warm bank", because I'm in Aus, I'm hanging out in a "cold bank" being Macarthur Square.
> 
> Taking in the sights which somewhat involuntarily involves basic stats recording.



Good  work, Insp. Froogs.

One from the past if you need an alibi: (The live 2000 Adelaide version is better but I couldn't get a link)


----------



## Smurf1976 (29 December 2022)

divs4ever said:


> demand OR supply , some items ( or fittings ) have been hard to get , it is possible more homes/buildings are finally completed freeing up capital and workers
> 
> affordability will be the next bottle-neck most incomes rise slower than costs and interest rates , and one would suspect lenders would be using increased caution , this could easily become a CASH-buyers market in the near term ( stressed sellers , and limited buyers )



I've paid closer attention and noticed that the builders I'm seeing rather a lot of advertising from are at the high end of the market. Luxury custom designed stuff not volume built cookie cutter houses.


----------



## divs4ever (29 December 2022)

Smurf1976 said:


> I've paid closer attention and noticed that the builders I'm seeing rather a lot of advertising from are at the high end of the market. Luxury custom designed stuff not volume built cookie cutter houses.



that would make sense  , the 'all-cash' or large down-payment  crowd , and semi-rural 'mansions '


----------



## farmerge (29 December 2022)

divs4ever said:


> that would make sense  , the 'all-cash' or large down-payment  crowd , and semi-rural 'mansions '



I have a nephew building a new home just on the southern edge of Perth. had to recently cough up $70k to the builder for extra costs (?) Doesn't mean that his new house will be started any time sooner. Been on the delayed books for over 12 months so far and looks like at least another 6 months, that's after handing over a substantial wad of folding.
Would appear that the cash economy is well and truly alive and well. It never really died.


----------



## divs4ever (29 December 2022)

farmerge said:


> I have a nephew building a new home just on the southern edge of Perth. had to recently cough up $70k to the builder for extra costs (?) Doesn't mean that his new house will be started any time sooner. Been on the delayed books for over 12 months so far and looks like at least another 6 months, that's after handing over a substantial wad of folding.
> Would appear that the cash economy is well and truly alive and well. It never really died.



political donations would be really tiny  if only electronic transfers were allowed ( and you could follow the money trail )

 your nephew might politely ask the builder about the extra costs ( the longer the construction time the better chance of a cost blowout )


----------



## JohnDe (29 December 2022)

farmerge said:


> I have a nephew building a new home edge of Perth. had to recently cough up $70k to the builder for extra costs  handing over a substantial wad of folding.
> Would appear that the cash economy is well and truly alive and well. It never really died.




What, he’s paid it all in cash?


----------



## farmerge (29 December 2022)

JohnDe said:


> What, he’s paid it all in cash?



To get a crew on site whenever that's what the builder decreed. I hav a neighbour who is a builder and about one third of the cost is always folding


----------



## JohnDe (29 December 2022)

farmerge said:


> To get a crew on site whenever that's what the builder decreed. I hav a neighbour who is a builder and about one third of the cost is always folding




 Time to find a different builder.


----------



## farmerge (29 December 2022)

JohnDe said:


> Time to find a different builder.



Too late already committed with the contract. From what he has found out all are much the same. He has stayed away from the big companies and gone with a small builder like my neighbour,


----------



## InsvestoBoy (30 December 2022)

Spent the last week in a holiday rental near Dee Why.

Lovely part of Sydney, full of people going to the beach and enjoying life, every cafe bar and restaurant full of locals and tourists having fun.

Strong urge to buy stocks.


----------



## rcw1 (30 December 2022)

InsvestoBoy said:


> Spent the last week in a holiday rental near Dee Why.
> 
> Lovely part of Sydney, full of people going to the beach and enjoying life, every cafe bar and restaurant full of locals and tourists having fun.
> 
> *Strong urge to buy stocks.*



Good morning / afternoon InsvestoBoy
Nice

Do it ...   otherwise you will never forgive yourself... ha ha ha ha ha

Have a prosperous new year.

Kind regards
rcw


----------



## Belli (30 December 2022)

farmerge said:


> Too late already committed with the contract. From what he has found out all are much the same. He has stayed away from the big companies and gone with a small builder like my neighbour,




What was promised:





What was delivered:




Sorry.  Couldn't resist.


----------



## divs4ever (30 December 2022)

JohnDe said:


> Time to find a different builder.



hard enough to find a builder that is competent , one solvent and honest is harder still ( one ready to start next week , nearly impossible )


----------



## divs4ever (30 December 2022)

rcw1 said:


> Good morning / afternoon InsvestoBoy
> Nice
> 
> Do it ...   otherwise you will never forgive yourself... ha ha ha ha ha
> ...



the urge is there , the target prices  are not 

 have a Happy New Year , everybody


----------



## farmerge (30 December 2022)

R


Belli said:


> What was promised:
> 
> View attachment 151038
> 
> ...



Ripper I'll show it to him when he next comes up here for some fresh air and decent drinking water. !!!!


----------



## JohnDe (30 December 2022)

divs4ever said:


> hard enough to find a builder that is competent , one solvent and honest is harder still ( one ready to start next week , nearly impossible )




I’ve built a couple of investment properties,  it’s definitely a process that requires more than a week to find a builder 🤪


----------



## JohnDe (30 December 2022)

Holidays have definitely started. Pubs & cafes are overflowing, beaches slowly filling, fishing boats all out


----------



## divs4ever (30 December 2022)

the builders  i would trust currently have 

A. died 

B. retired 

C. taken the profits accumulated ( in the 1980's )   and opened a chain in a completely different industry for his family to inherit 

 D. can't find enough staff  that can load the truck for the day's start ( seem to spend a LOT of time at Bunnings buying 'forgotten tools ' )

 and THAT is why i am monitoring businesses like FBR  and places  working on modular  homes and pre-fabbed modules 

 but after doing a stint of 'pre-turnover cleans'  i have seen some jaw-dropping deficiencies  ( and more embarrassingly a buyer spotted a glaring defect  ,that even i missed )


----------



## moXJO (30 December 2022)

Huge problem with service. No one seems to be able to do anything. It's ridiculous.

Went to a bank to deposit money (the atm was out) so went to counter. They put the money in the wrong account after stuffing round for a tad under 15mins and me saying "savings account 1234 Not the credit". Then went back in after checking app for another 10-15min to get it to the right 

Bought someone shoes for Christmas. Salesperson spent 20mins looking for the shoe size I wanted, as all they could find was the right shoe. Another Salesperson found a box and off I went. Come Christmas and there were two left shoes both different sizes.

Misses went to book a pantech. I got the guy on the phone and specifically told him pantech along with dimensions. Come the day she went to pick it up and its a van.

So called another hire place. Yep they have one and will be ready to go at 11:30am.  Turn up at the counter and they don't know who I am or anything about the truck. They try to tell me I called the hire place down the road, then I show them the phone record and email. This is literally 2 hours after I called. 

While this is going on I'm arguing with origin on the phone. They had some bundle package that was getting connected the same day for a family member. They end up losing the internet portion of the bundle and tell me I'm with some third party neither of us have heard of. They tried to stiff her till I got on the phone and start spouting consumer laws in the knowledge that I'm slightly more up to date then the person I'm arguing with.

There's also wrong orders, clueless service and stupid questions over a 3 day period.
I literally don't want to use shops anymore.
Yes it might be just the Christmas crew. But I've been noticing this for a while and it seems to be getting worse.


----------



## moXJO (30 December 2022)

divs4ever said:


> the builders  i would trust currently have
> 
> A. died
> 
> ...



I can only recommend a select few as most of the trusted guys have moved on. I keep trying to retire but have had endless phone calls. I'm done though.


----------



## frugal.rock (30 December 2022)

moXJO said:


> Huge problem with service.



Was saying exactly the same thing a few days ago... A filthy mix of incompetency, apathy, brain washing and laziness.


----------



## moXJO (30 December 2022)

frugal.rock said:


> Was saying exactly the same thing a few days ago... A filthy mix of incompetency, apathy, brain washing and laziness.



It's not just young people either. Everyone has zero effort.


----------



## divs4ever (30 December 2022)

moXJO said:


> I can only recommend a select few as most of the trusted guys have moved on. I keep trying to retire but have had endless phone calls. I'm done though.



most got exhausted negotiating the financial cycles  
 the one which founded the chain of stores , worked it out in his 30's  , he would build on contract  , but would also build for his own investment  ( rent out and eventually flip after the area was established ,)

 developers went broke , sub contractors went broke , etc etc  , he worked out the industry wasn't stable enough to raise his three children on .

 enjoy your retirement


----------



## frugal.rock (30 December 2022)

It's ok though, just lower your expectations and it all balances out.
IE, expect nothing, and anything above that is well received... A joyous occasion


----------



## InsvestoBoy (4 January 2023)

Was in the city yesterday for work. Went out for dinner afterwards in Barangaroo. Thought it might be quiet as still many places closed for NY holidays and maybe people would be spent out and tired...nope.

Full of people wandering around, eating and having a good time.

Walked from Barangaroo to Central, all the night spots inbetween busy with people eating and drinking. The queue at Messina was at least 30 people deep.

Strong urge to buy stocks.


----------



## sptrawler (4 January 2023)

InsvestoBoy said:


> Strong urge to buy stocks.



I'm with you on that, Australia and its GDP isn't getting smaller.
My guess is, this population projection, is a conservative estimate.









						Australia's population to reach 30 million in 11 to 15 years
					






					www.abs.gov.au
				




Based on current trends, Australia's population is projected to reach 30 million people between 2029 and 2033, according to the latest figures released today by the Australian Bureau of Statistics (ABS).


----------



## peter2 (5 January 2023)

*Lots of retail stocks* appearing in today's bullish scans. Also fund managers (MFG, PPT, PDL) and of course gold producers. 

The presence of so many retailers indicates that we (ASX) will be unlikely to suffer a recession any time soon.


----------



## divs4ever (5 January 2023)

peter2 said:


> *Lots of retail stocks* appearing in today's bullish scans. Also fund managers (MFG, PPT, PDL) and of course gold producers.
> 
> The presence of so many retailers indicates that we (ASX) will be unlikely to suffer a recession any time soon.



 well PDL is under take-over  moves from PPT .

 i disagree on ( most  of ) the retailers  ( and recession status )

 i see SOME paths for future ( long-term ) growth in selected retailers , others i suspect will be devising strategies to reduce costs  ( i think some will try rent reduction strategies , thus will be keeping an eagle-eye on REITs )

 cheers


----------



## moXJO (5 January 2023)

Gotta wait on interest rate lag. Probably march.
What's the general consensus?
One year lag time.


----------



## sptrawler (5 January 2023)

moXJO said:


> Gotta wait on interest rate lag. Probably march.
> What's the general consensus?
> One year lag time.



What I'm finding here in the West is, there are starting to be more small trade based businesses advertising in the local paper eg a year ago there would be one plumbing business advertising, now there are three and that applies to most service providers.
It would indicate to me that the backlog of stimulus money going into building, is starting to dry up, that usually hits the smaller businesses first, the bigger ones have bread and butter contracts with the bigger builders.
So as you say moXJO, the lag time is starting to tighten, now the early stages of the tightening are being felt.
Add to that the ramping up of the new Govt's skilled migration intake and I personally think that we will see a more realistic labour market by about the September quarter.
That is my opinion, in W.A, but we always have a labour shortage, it's just prices for work you want done in the house range from stupid(last 2 years) and sensible ( hopefully Sept).
I still can't vet a tiler to rip out and replace the tiles in the shower recess, it has been nearly 12 months and I have a coffee with a tiler most mornings at about 6.60am, he is honest and just says I dont want to do it, there is heaps of work fitting out new homes, why would I want to gut out a shower recess and pizz about vreathing in the dust, prepping the job then doing it, when I can't keep up with clean new work that pays heaps.
So the shower is a good indicator IMO, when I can get someone to do it, obviously the easy money is over. Lol


----------



## JohnDe (5 January 2023)

Wholesale diesel price dropped significantly since last October​


----------



## divs4ever (5 January 2023)

sptrawler said:


> I still can't vet a tiler to rip out and replace the tiles in the shower recess, it has been nearly 12 months and I have a coffee with a tiler most mornings at about 6.60am, he is honest and just says I dont want to do it, there is heaps of work fitting out new homes, why would I want to gut out a shower recess and pizz about vreathing in the dust, prepping the job then doing it, when I can't keep up with clean new work that pays heaps.



ayeyiyi !!

 that brings back a nightmare memory  , at the current house being repaired for water damage  caused be a faulty repair two years  earlier  ( and NOT in the shower/bathroom area )

 but two years to grow mould/mildew in sub-tropical Brisbane  and you have a health problem .. so the entire house ceiling had to go ( eventually ) then  a search  for water-damage/mould in the walls cavities 

 so apart from the ceiling   the shower/bathroom area should have been fine , right ?

 well it was until the tradies repairing the ceiling , broke some floor tiles .... ( those tiles were 20 plus years old )

anyway  four shower/bathroom  rebuilds later , that area is pretty good , apart from the ceiling exhaust fan which just sucks  ( in a pathetic way )

now normally  the home-owners ( which isn't me ) would be HOSTILE over this circus , but the majority of the rest of the tradies kept them distracted  , and domiciled in a hotel for three and half years  , while the insurance company picked up the bills ( and THEY didn't smile much at all )

 unfortunately  ( for the insurer ) the house is brick veneer  ( a wooden house would have been demolished and rebuilt after the first year  of problems , and double-brick would not have needed  almost every gyp-rock wall replaced )


----------



## sptrawler (5 January 2023)

Apologies for the spelling errors on the last post, it was posted from the phone.


----------



## JohnDe (Saturday at 12:52 PM)

Tyler Durden said:


> I don't catch taxis often, but when I do, I like to have a chat with the driver and get his/her views on the state of the economy. It can be quite an interesting chat.
> 
> I also like to walk a lot, and perhaps it's due to my 'bear-ish' nature, but I have noticed a lot of shops closing down on the streets I walk on. Some of these have been in existence for quite a while (like 5+ years) and some seem short lived.
> 
> ...




This thread was started over 8 years ago, very interesting to re-read the comments & gather the differing views.

I’m still on holidays, sharing my time between home & our coastal retreat. I have inadvertently picked up conversations from many different people in different areas.

While enjoying the sun & water activities I heard people talking about looking for and researching properties, some for short term rentals to help pay off the mortgage & then to be their holiday place, others for straight out buy & turn into holiday accommodation.

I watch the realestate market and had another look after hearing all the talk, property is selling fast.

Went to dinner at the Sailing Club, all friendly volunteers. We arrived 30 minutes after opening & the place was buzzing with activity, luckily we got the last table. Talking to the staff, I was informed that it was the busiest night that they have ever had. The members section was full, and so was the guest & outdoor section, with the bar full with people waiting for a table.

Every cafe, pub, bar, restaurant has been full all week. The caravan parks are booked solid, apartment cleaning staff are smiling as their bank accounts fill.

Yesterday evening I drove back home to run some errands, swap cars, pick up a few things & check on my business. I noticed packed 4WD’s & caravans traveling in all directions, number plates from just about every state.

As I got closer to the city I could see a large fireworks at some location, obviously people enjoying themselves.

This morning I went to the gym, I couldn’t believe my eyes, the place is chock-a-block.  Quite a few interstate visitors, people talking about their Christmas celebrations & then enjoying the cafe down stairs for some social interaction & food.

I’m now sitting in the car wash cafe waiting for my VF SSV Ute to get the bugs cleaned off, while I have a coffee & croissant amongst the other 20 or so clients.

the economy might be in a bad spot, but the people seem to be holding up pretty well.

I’ll keep monitoring the situation.

Almost time to go, next stop is to swap cars. Taking the Tesla back to my coastal retreat, later in the afternoon after I get the tyre pressure checked and pick up a few things. Busy day.


----------



## againsthegrain (Saturday at 2:56 PM)

JohnDe said:


> This thread was started over 8 years ago, very interesting to re-read the comments & gather the differing views.
> 
> I’m still on holidays, sharing my time between home & our coastal retreat. I have inadvertently picked up conversations from many different people in different areas.
> 
> ...



This is undeniably the trend in most places, the anomaly however is none of those people are willing to work more, actually most of them are cutting their hours or jobs overall.

I spoke to my friend who owns a car yard, said there is no sales staff, nowhere... other businesses too.  I asked him so what happened? poof one day everyone evaporated?  He then made a good point, the lockdowns not so much made people depend on printed handouts but rather change the psychology behind work, priorities in life and the balance.

I have also heard this line mainly from females,  usually professionals who will simply say have to live life, getting older, can't worry about the future, savings, money... just enjoy experiences.


To me this is quiet a anomaly,  in 2 - 3 years we have suddenly shifted from a society which would work extra hours, 2 jobs,  put extra into their super into a society of enjoy now because you don't know what tomorrow brings.

I am more in middle to both mentalities but I think both extremes are not healthy.

So where do we go from here?  All the transfer of savings and new taken on debt is good for those that still work/own businesses but will it run forever?  I guess once all the dreamers get it out of their system they will have to hang their heads low and crawl back to a boss. Question is when will that happen and will the boss still be around?  So far great inflanatory environment, looks like the inflation flame will be burning strong for a while and also demonstrates we have plenty of fat to chew through to keep raising rates.

as investorkid would say makes me want to buy stocks, actually maybe good quality dividents stocks


----------



## JohnDe (Saturday at 3:10 PM)

againsthegrain said:


> This is undeniably the trend in most places, the anomaly however is none of those people are willing to work more, actually most of them are cutting their hours or jobs overall.
> 
> I spoke to my friend who owns a car yard, said there is no sales staff, nowhere... other businesses too.  I asked him so what happened? poof one day everyone evaporated?  He then made a good point, the lockdowns not so much made people depend on printed handouts but rather change the psychology behind work, priorities in life and the balance.
> 
> ...




I've heard your description of peoples work ethic since my early working life, first from my retired grandfather and later on from my retired father. Funny thing is, we're still there.

I meet and know a lot of people that work very hard. Landscapers, tilers, electricians, and the ilk that get the job done, work their guts out so as to make free time. Quite a few people are working two part time jobs, to save for their house or a holiday. None of these people advertise the fact.

Your mate with the car yard, how did he go for stock? My mate left the car yard sales game because he had no stock to sell, the very large company told the staff that all commission on sales would be given when delivery was completed in 12 to 24 months. My mate now works in finance/banking selling loans.

While there are jobs in the economy and decent pay, there will be people happy to spend it.

According to data from the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA), there are more than 2 billion banknotes on issue, worth more than $100 billion – that's about $4,000 per person in Australia.​


----------



## JohnDe (Saturday at 3:18 PM)

JohnDe said:


> This thread was started over 8 years ago, very interesting to re-read the comments & gather the differing views.
> 
> I’m still on holidays, sharing my time between home & our coastal retreat. I have inadvertently picked up conversations from many different people in different areas.
> 
> ...




Almost time to head back.

Went to my local grocery store/fruit & veg to pick up supplies. Bloody hell, you would have thought it was coming up to Christmas again, people everywhere.

Then off to the petrol station to fill up before parking the car away for the next few weeks. Couple of home maintenance jobs, grabbed a few much-needed beverages to take up & got the esky ready.

Now I'm at my business, in the office, all paperwork (electronic) done, mail sorted, bills paid. I'll be leaving in a few minutes, the Tesla is 80% charged, just a few more trips and then I'll call the wife and see what she wants me to bring up.

Feels like a Friday rather than Saturday, a lot of traffic in the city.


----------



## againsthegrain (Saturday at 3:21 PM)

JohnDe said:


> I've heard your description of peoples work ethic since my early working life, first from my retired grandfather and later on from my retired father. Funny thing is, we're still there.
> 
> I meet and know a lot of people that work very hard. Landscapers, tilers, electricians, and the ilk that get the job done, work their guts out so as to make free time. Quite a few people are working two part time jobs, to save for their house or a holiday. None of these people advertise the fact.
> 
> ...



Yeah,  it seems that he is trying to get out from the game.  No staff, No stock not like him doing 7 days a week can improve the stock situation. 


Oh yes it is always like that, I agree. When I was a kid in the 90s I always heard adults say we are heading for the end of our society etc. I do agree with that comment usually we pull through and stronger.  There will always be dips here and there. 

1 thing to take into account is, those that have money and perhaps enough assets and savings to be living the good life will always be easily seen.  Those that struggle won't be parading around as much, but I do acknowledge the fact that there is still plenty of money walking the streets and living the good life









						Average household debt grows by 7.3 per cent
					






					www.abs.gov.au


----------



## moXJO (Saturday at 3:29 PM)

Actually it's hard to get anyone. Even had a tatto artist, barber ask me to find guys. I talk to dozens of businesses a week and its all the same thing: can't get anyone to work. Been like this since 2021 or longer (damn years are going to fast)

I keep hearing the same thing from people in their 20s as well. I'm doing the bare minimum for wages.

I noticed the change. I think lockdowns were part of it. Changed people's perceptions of life. But businesses owners I know are working very hard. So it's possible it's a case of 'work hard to enrich yourself' mentality.


----------



## frugal.rock (Saturday at 3:34 PM)

@againsthegrain has pointed out the over exuberance shown by some.

@JohnDe has pointed out the other side of the coin.

I'm trying to be industrious and do more hours, so is the wife and kids. We're tired though. I'm encouraging belt tightening and have been for a while. When unexpected costs pop up,( like having to replace the wife's broken car)these days they are 20% more than just a few years ago. It's a constant juggle.

I've noticed that some walks of life are treating jobs and employers as disposable. Giving little notice, random "sick days" for other excursions etc

A point I'm trying to make here is, once China gets back into the swing of it, the world should start rebalancing to what used to be normal. I don't expect it to get fully back to the way it was though, there's too many other agenda's going on.


----------



## againsthegrain (Saturday at 3:43 PM)

frugal.rock said:


> @againsthegrain has pointed out the over exuberance shown by some.
> 
> @JohnDe has pointed out the other side of the coin.
> 
> ...



my wife is going like crazy buying shoes clothes booking holidays....  I am going crazy paying the bills buying radiator hoses, thermostats, oils, coolants etc... oh yeah and doing the labour too ofcourse. 
Its all rosy and glamorous for her.. because she never once had to see how things work under the bonnet and I don't mean just the car but as a analogy. 

perfect example of 2 totally different angles


----------



## frugal.rock (Saturday at 3:48 PM)

againsthegrain said:


> my wife is going like crazy buying shoes clothes booking holidays..



 Bizarre init.😩 They get this glazed focussed look on em. I think it's the mesmerising bling and tunes in shopping centres and shops.
I'm immune...


----------



## moXJO (Saturday at 3:55 PM)

frugal.rock said:


> @againsthegrain has pointed out the over exuberance shown by some.
> 
> @JohnDe has pointed out the other side of the coin.
> 
> ...



Not sure if China can go back to how it was.


As for the rest, recession is the great leveller. 
Hundreds of people applying for a job soon changes your mentality. 
I remember there being no jobs anywhere. Crime, drug use, suicides weekly. 
Saw this article and it took me back:

https://www.abc.net.au/news/2020-09...st-recession-1990s-30-years-covid-19/12623110


----------



## frugal.rock (Saturday at 4:05 PM)

moXJO said:


> Not sure if China can go back to how it was.



I agree there, but the point I probably didn't get across is the exuberance from China re-opening "freedom man" will be rife.
Exuberance and industriousness will pop.
Give it a few months or so for the data to start flowing.
No doubt they will experience greater inflation, supply issues etc than we or the US had, but it will level out. Meanwhile, they're commodity etc hungry.

I saw a video of a Chinese dog pacing around on a balcony, it then just jumped off, to it's unknown death.


----------



## wayneL (Saturday at 4:28 PM)

Around my area it's kind of mixed. One day I will go out and everything is absolutely humming, the next you can fire off a shotgun and not hit a soul.

My own client base is doing pretty well,  but belong to a pretty well off demographic. 

But as others mentioned above getting staff is possible... And when they do getting them to stay working is just as hard. They just quit, often with no notice.

I'm just happy that my little business operates well enough as a one-man band. I desperately need to put somebody on but at the moment I'm just not even going to attempt it.


----------



## farmerge (Saturday at 4:37 PM)

wayneL said:


> Around my area it's kind of mixed. One day I will go out and everything is absolutely humming, the next you can fire off a shotgun and not hit a soul.
> 
> My own client base is doing pretty well,  but belong to a pretty well off demographic.
> 
> ...



Good afternoon WayneL. Sounds like you are almost living next door. Our "busy" road has been dead quite, how I love the festive season. Only have I moron at the moment disturbing the peace and as a temporary Australian "motor bike rider" his days are numbered going by the way he rides.
Gave up on getting an offsider some time ago. Only basically unemployable types around, and then they want, want and want, that is, a phone, ute and mining industry wages.
So as usual just She (occasionally) and me. What we earn is all ours, best way to be. What's not done today, moves on to tomorrow


----------



## wayneL (Saturday at 4:43 PM)

farmerge said:


> Good afternoon WayneL. Sounds like you are almost living next door. Our "busy" road has been dead quite, how I love the festive season. Only have I moron at the moment disturbing the peace and as a temporary Australian "motor bike rider" his days are numbered going by the way he rides.
> Gave up on getting an offsider some time ago. Only basically unemployable types around, and then they want, want and want, that is, a phone, ute and mining industry wages.
> So as usual just She (occasionally) and me. What we earn is all ours, best way to be. What's not done today, moves on to tomorrow



Oh yeah! We've got one of those encroaching on our little piece of Nirvana too.

I'm studying grassy knolls at the moment.


----------



## farmerge (Saturday at 4:46 PM)

wayneL said:


> Oh yeah! We've got one of those encroaching on our little piece of Nirvana too.
> 
> I'm studying grassy knolls at the moment.



WayneL how about this moron came up alongside my ute on the back wheel only at about 90k and then lashed out with his left fot at my driver's door. Caught me off guard completely, otherwise it would have been a fly in the eye and a hard swerve to the right.


----------



## frugal.rock (Saturday at 4:52 PM)

wayneL said:


> I'm studying grassy knolls at the moment.



Is your name L.H. Oswald per chance ? 😱


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## wayneL (Saturday at 4:54 PM)

farmerge said:


> WayneL how about this moron came up alongside my ute on the back wheel only at about 90k and then lashed out with his left fot at my driver's door. Caught me off guard completely, otherwise it would have been a fly in the eye and a hard swerve to the right.



I'm actually blown away by the road rage in this city since I've come back


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## wayneL (Saturday at 4:56 PM)

frugal.rock said:


> Is your name L.H. Oswald per chance ? 😱



I'm working on the theory that Oswald was the patsy.


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## farmerge (Saturday at 4:57 PM)

frugal.rock said:


> Is your name L.H. Oswald per chance ? 😱



Nope, battler perhaps


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## farmerge (Saturday at 5:01 PM)

wayneL said:


> I'm actually blown away by the road rage in this city since I've come back



Everyone seems to think that the road don't apply to them, speeding, dangerous overtaking at speed, tail gating, over slow driving etc etc


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## divs4ever (Saturday at 5:10 PM)

frugal.rock said:


> Is your name L.H. Oswald per chance ? 😱



no L. H. was in a book repository working  ( who brings a Carcano to work in case a President  drives by close )  , there some different  claims about the grassy knoll


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## wayneL (Saturday at 5:11 PM)

farmerge said:


> Everyone seems to think that the road don't apply to them, speeding, dangerous overtaking at speed, tail gating, over slow driving etc etc



Yep. Because I'm on the road all the time I have to watch my demerits... It's not hard to get caught out in a lapse of concentration.

Coming down Great Northern Highway at the Reid Highway intersection is a classic... They set up the camera right at the change of speed limit and it's not hard to miss that 60 sign.

Which of course means I have the absolute temerity to stick to the speed limit, for which I can't count count the number of times I have been abused for.

Another spot up your way, heading east out of Gidge. It's 60 until you get well past the showgrounds I'm sure you know where the revenue collecting heathen like to set themselves up.


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## divs4ever (Saturday at 5:20 PM)

wayneL said:


> I'm working on the theory that Oswald was the patsy.



most likely ,    the first rifle found on the scene  was NOT the 'murder weapon'  ( it was a Mauser action  , i.e. something actually capable of sniper work , but chances are the scope was too powerful for a target that close )

 AND i really can't believe the 'official narrative ' was believed for a millisecond  by the Texans ( i knew it was crap as an eight year old in Australia )


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## farmerge (Saturday at 6:26 PM)

wayneL said:


> Yep. Because I'm on the road all the time I have to watch my demerits... It's not hard to get caught out in a lapse of concentration.
> 
> Coming down Great Northern Highway at the Reid Highway intersection is a classic... They set up the camera right at the change of speed limit and it's not hard to miss that 60 sign.
> 
> ...



There and also just near the servo on the left another favourite spot for revenue raising


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## divs4ever (Saturday at 6:40 PM)

frugal.rock said:


> I've noticed that some walks of life are treating jobs and employers as disposable.



having worked for several 'Mega-corps ' that have treated the employees  the same way ( since the '70's )

 all i can say is  ... karma is a bitch 

 i do feel for the small/medium  business  who does the right thing ( and for the right reasons ) and they get bitten in the butt ( at best only their best staff poached )


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## Smurf1976 (Saturday at 11:07 PM)

againsthegrain said:


> To me this is quiet a anomaly, in 2 - 3 years we have suddenly shifted from a society which would work extra hours, 2 jobs, put extra into their super into a society of enjoy now because you don't know what tomorrow brings.
> 
> I am more in middle to both mentalities but I think both extremes are not healthy.




Personally I've been there, done that with the "live to work thing". Eat, sleep, work 7 days a week - very doable if it needs to be done.

Life though is for living and I think the overall events of the past 3 years have brought many to a realisation that what they thought could be taken for granted can actually disappear in an instant. That being so, if the opportunity presents to do x then do it now not tomorrow becomes the thinking.

Hence the spending on experiences etc and lack of willingness to sacrifice today for the promise of tomorrow. Tomorrow may well be cancelled.

That plus a very strong message has been sent that when push comes to shove, imprudence is more likely to be rewarded than prudence. That's what the actions of governments during the pandemic amounted to - spendthrifts were given a doubling of the dole and no waiting times to keep them out of trouble, now the savers get punished through inflation.


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## qldfrog (Sunday at 5:48 AM)

Smurf1976 said:


> Personally I've been there, done that with the "live to work thing". Eat, sleep, work 7 days a week - very doable if it needs to be done.
> 
> Life though is for living and I think the overall events of the past 3 years have brought many to a realisation that what they thought could be taken for granted can actually disappear in an instant. That being so, if the opportunity presents to do x then do it now not tomorrow becomes the thinking.
> 
> ...



And i would add:
Be entrepreneur and start a business: be it a cafe, a restaurant or renovate an airbnb or put it all in a rental property and the government wiped you out in a sec with a lockdown, a decree overnight while your new tenant get scotch free and the dole guy next door gets extra $
For the frog and others, start an international business and see nearly 3y of de facto travel ban.
Worse, spend years in training as a nurse, a GP , a cop or teacher and be prevented to work /fired for flimsy political pretext .
All the very essence of what USSR was, and crossing fingers created its downfall.
No reward for effort and authoritarian management of individual lives.
So individuals respond as they should, and it is not me who will blame them.
Do not count on them, or me to work bare the required minimum..which for many can be 0, either thru dole or early retirement
Some will say it was incidental, i think it was intentional: the basis of socialism embedded structure and another step in the Reset.
Societal engineering...


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## JohnDe (Sunday at 9:39 AM)

All this talk about people and their work ethic reminds me of family discussions with my wife's Uncles, when we were younger. They would talk about the 1970's, about how easy it was to find a job. Basically they could "leave one job, walk across the road and get another job", and the pay was good.

Funny how the working class enjoyed the opportunities of having choices in choosing the employment that suited them and receiving good pay for it, but everyone else did not. Hence the increase in the interest rates.

And here we are again, people angry about workers leaving a job they don't like and testing others. Interest rates increasing, so as to cause higher unemployment.

Are we repeating the 1970's? I think so, but with a little more control and knowledge.


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