# Forex Strategies



## doctorj (7 March 2007)

The last few days i've been having a crack at some different strategies with Forex to get a feel for it on the Oanda practice account.

So far, I've had good success trading breakouts from S/R lines on the 15min chart with a stock standard MACD below for confirmation and some basic candlestick analysis on the USD/JPY only.  Anyone trade this (or similar) and have any comments?  It seems to be keeping me out of the chop and getting enough of the quick movements to be interesting.


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## It's Snake Pliskin (7 March 2007)

doctorj said:
			
		

> The last few days i've been having a crack at some different strategies with Forex to get a feel for it on the Oanda practice account.
> 
> So far, I've had good success trading breakouts from S/R lines on the 15min chart with a stock standard MACD below for confirmation and some basic candlestick analysis on the USD/JPY only.  Anyone trade this (or similar) and have any comments?  It seems to be keeping me out of the chop and getting enough of the quick movements to be interesting.




Try pivot points and their support and resistance levels. 
ADX
RSI
Have you tried these?


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## doctorj (7 March 2007)

Had a play with ADX, but perhaps on too short a time frame.  Was quite noisy.

I'm really just having a play for the moment to get a feel for forex.  So far the more simple I keep it the more success I seem to be having.


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## It's Snake Pliskin (7 March 2007)

doctorj said:
			
		

> Had a play with ADX, but perhaps on too short a time frame.  Was quite noisy.
> 
> I'm really just having a play for the moment to get a feel for forex.  So far the more simple I keep it the more success I seem to be having.




It is a different beast FOREX. I'm with OANDA and have the account set up just working out my mindset before I go in. 
Have a look at this blog it may have something interesting for you.
Fibs do well in FOREX but need to be part of a system not just alone.
http://www.forexproject.com/tag/Fibonacci/


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## Naif (7 March 2007)

doctorj said:
			
		

> The last few days i've been having a crack at some different strategies with Forex to get a feel for it on the Oanda practice account.
> 
> So far, I've had good success trading breakouts from S/R lines on the 15min chart with a stock standard MACD below for confirmation and some basic candlestick analysis on the USD/JPY only.  Anyone trade this (or similar) and have any comments?  It seems to be keeping me out of the chop and getting enough of the quick movements to be interesting.




FOREX is a crazy market.. don`t ever follow strategies which are full of indicators, remember always that indicators follow the price not followed by the price.
try to make ur chart simple and identify the trend, supports and the resistance.  if the trend is up wait for the suports to buy or any confirmed break for the resistance.. use trend lines cuz its really useful.
try to follow a pair or two and try to understand their movements so by the time you will be familiar with..

good luck


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## money tree (7 March 2007)

use non-lagging methods like fibb, trendlines, resistance, support.

NEVER use rsi, macd, moving averages, or any other indicator using a MA. you WILL get roasted.

use other pairs as leading indicators.


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## doctorj (7 March 2007)

money tree said:
			
		

> use other pairs as leading indicators.



Thanks for your post.

Can you suggest which pairs lead which pairs?


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## money tree (7 March 2007)

nzd, aud, eur & gbp have high correlations as they are all short USD. USDCHF is the inverse of EURUSD, ie something like 99% correlation, yet you may see a breakout in USDCHF before a breakdown in EURUSD. Or you can use one to confirm the move in the other.

generally if I see eur & aud move, and gbp is sluggish, I will get on gbp.

gold chart often is a leader for aud.

nzd is illiquid so you often see a move here before the others.


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## Naif (7 March 2007)

and if you want to trade cad or jpy you should watch the oil prices..


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## money tree (7 March 2007)

I agree with oil vs CAD, but jpy?


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## Naif (7 March 2007)

well Japan is number two in the world in importing oil, japan import 5.3 ..
u might ask what about number one? united states? well united states number one in the world in importing oil 11.8 , but they are also number three in producing oil 8.69 ..
thats why the investors who expect the oil will hit 100$ they will buy CADJPY.
just see the cadjpy chart


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## It's Snake Pliskin (8 March 2007)

Naif said:
			
		

> well Japan is number two in the world in importing oil, japan import 5.3 ..
> u might ask what about number one? united states? well united states number one in the world in importing oil 11.8 , but they are also number three in producing oil 8.69 ..
> thats why the investors who expect the oil will hit 100$ they will buy CADJPY.
> just see the cadjpy chart




Good info Naif and M tree.

Watch the CAD and the oil price.


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## money tree (8 March 2007)

oanda doesnt have oil (yet) but they have gold

another strategy is to watch the yen pairs, theres AJ, CadJ, ChfJ, EJ, GJ, UJ and if your lucky NJ.

wait till theres a break on most of these and get on the one thats lagging


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## money tree (8 March 2007)

once you start playing for real $$$ I recommend the following.

start out with 100 lots, if you handle that well, move up to 1000 and so on.

dont be like 99% of people who put $1m on their first trade based on gut feel, then lose 80% on day one, only to fight the rest of the year with small lots to break even.   


lets compile some info on various brokers spreads and interest rate spreads.

for carry trades, the interest rate spread is more important.


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## Naif (8 March 2007)

money tree said:
			
		

> once you start playing for real $$$ I recommend the following.
> 
> start out with 100 lots, if you handle that well, move up to 1000 and so on.
> 
> ...




i agree with u..
before u start a real account you should learn how to mange your money, u have really to know alot about risk management


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## It's Snake Pliskin (11 March 2007)

Naif said:
			
		

> i agree with u..
> before u start a real account you should learn how to mange your money, u have really to know alot about risk management




..or acceptance of tradable risk that encapsulates risk and money management. 
I don't agree with using dummy accounts because they don't challenge the emotions and lead one into a false sense of belief.


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## Naif (11 March 2007)

It's Snake Pliskin said:
			
		

> ..or acceptance of tradable risk that encapsulates risk and money management.
> I don't agree with using dummy accounts because they don't challenge the emotions and lead one into a false sense of belief.




yea you`re right.. you can`t say that you are  a successful trader if you could make profits using dummy account , real account is completely different..


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## x2rider (11 March 2007)

Yeah for what it's worth, I also agree with MT. 

I prefer to enter a position with a small amount first and then pyramid the position as it rises or falls.  Although it would be good to be able to start with the whole amount the rise or fall can be hard to predict in scale. The more positions that I have on a particular trade the tighter my stop gets.
I find the charts easier to read also because of the lack of gapping. These can sometimes be filled and can place doubt in the mind after a large rise that might of occured in a share price.  Also if something dramatic happens in the world exiting a position is immediate and there is no chasing a falling price like shares.

Cheers martin


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## doctorj (13 March 2007)

I appreciate what you all have said about dummy accounts.  Its a well worn arguement (for both sides).  As I paper traded before making my first stock trade, I have commenced paper trading forex.

I am using proper money management (</= 2% of capital at risk per trade) and will endeavour to keep it realistic.  I have also begun posting trades live (or as close to live as reality permits) in my ASF journal, so you can follow and post abuse there.


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## It's Snake Pliskin (20 March 2007)

doctorj said:
			
		

> I appreciate what you all have said about dummy accounts.  Its a well worn arguement (for both sides).  As I paper traded before making my first stock trade, I have commenced paper trading forex.
> 
> I am using proper money management (</= 2% of capital at risk per trade) and will endeavour to keep it realistic.  I have also begun posting trades live (or as close to live as reality permits) in my ASF journal, so you can follow and post abuse there.



Doctor,
Since you are with OANDA you will find that you can practise better money management and position sizing because they have units not just lots. Most brokers only allow 1 lot to be traded. At OANDA you cna trade anything you like below your leverage level.

For example, I can trade a $2,000 trade using leverage with only a small portion of that my own money for collateral.


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## happytrader (20 March 2007)

Here is one of my favourite forex sites and trader. www.raghee.com

Cheers
Happytrader


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## CanOz (28 March 2007)

Are these waves tradeable? I'm trying to use support/resistance and fibb to pick an entry point? Is this an acceptable means of picking an entry into a forex trade?

Anyone care to share thier experience here?

Cheers,


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## Kauri (28 March 2007)

Hi cannaussieuck,
                         I've been trading the aussie long based on my weekly chart (my dubious count   ), so my bias has been mostly long. Have found for me the best timeframes to time entries in FX in general for me is 4hourly and daily, too many false starts on the shorter timeframes, for the way I trade anyway. The bouncing volatility associated with US announcements  is murder!!!! Also found that a stop set a few points beyond the logical stop point based on fibs/support-resistance is worthwhile, amazing how many times you can be taken out of an otherwise profitable trade by less than 3 pips or so.. stop running by M/M's or professional traders maybe??? 
         Cheers
                 Kauri


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## Monkey Business (13 April 2007)

doctorj said:


> I appreciate what you all have said about dummy accounts.  Its a well worn arguement (for both sides).  As I paper traded before making my first stock trade, I have commenced paper trading forex.
> 
> I am using proper money management (</= 2% of capital at risk per trade) and will endeavour to keep it realistic.  I have also begun posting trades live (or as close to live as reality permits) in my ASF journal, so you can follow and post abuse there.




 I think the ability to virtual trade is essential for novices. I didnt know anything about Forex and found a strategy through some friends. I only decided to try it becuase I could virtual trade. I did that for a month and then went live. In one month live trading I was up overall 101%. I got out for a while and am now back in and in last 3 weeks am up over 40%. I'm using safer strategies now though as I learned a bit more about money and risk management and best of all I learned to know my worst case scenario.


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## macca (13 April 2007)

Hi MB,

Wow, those returns are amazing, do you trade right through the night or on a daily chart ?


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## wayneL (13 April 2007)

macca said:


> Hi MB,
> 
> Wow, those returns are amazing, do you trade right through the night or on a daily chart ?



Beware!

Not to disparage Monkey Business at all, but he needs to quantify those returns. i.e. 40% of what? Moreover, without the trading style and money management parameters, it tells us nothing.

I can walk in to a casino, plonk on black for one spin of the wheel and walk out with 100% return in 30 seconds if it goes my way. But one could say my position sizing and money management is diabolical.

Not meant as criticism as I say, but more information is needed.


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## Monkey Business (15 April 2007)

wayneL said:


> Beware!
> 
> Not to disparage Monkey Business at all, but he needs to quantify those returns. i.e. 40% of what? Moreover, without the trading style and money management parameters, it tells us nothing.
> 
> ...




Happy to show you excerpts from my spreadsheets. The percentages are of the account balance at open of each position: I have 2 accounts
Account A
DATE OPENED		DATE CLOSED	BALANCE	% GAIN
21/03/2007			21/03/2007		0.96%
22/03/2007			22/03/2007		1.86%
22/03/2007			22/03/2007		1.22%
22/03/2007			26/03/2007		1.68%
27/03/2007			27/03/2007		2.62%
28/03/2007			30/03/2007		3.11%
30/03/2007			3/04/2007		6.29%
3/04/2007			5/04/2007		5.47%
5/04/2007			6/04/2007		2.09%
6/04/2007			9/04/2007		3.05%
9/04/2007			12/04/2007		8.08%
12/04/2007		 	12/04/2007		0.89%
12/04/2007			Total		37.32%

Account B
DATE OPENED		DATE CLOSED	BALANCE	% GAIN
22/03/2007			27/03/2007		1.65%
27/03/2007			28/03/2007		1.68%
28/03/2007			30/03/2007		3.89%
30/03/2007			3/04/2007		4.35%
3/04/2007			5/04/2007		1.98%
5/04/2007			6/04/2007		2.44%
6/04/2007			9/04/2007		3.05%
9/04/2007			12/04/2007		9.01%
12/04/2007			Total		28.06%

The following is my original account with a different broker but I do not trade with them now as their swap rates changed and it was no longer profitable to use the method I prefer.

Dec Jan Closed account: Traded 4 major pairs 20% margin way too risky for me now.

DATE OPENED	START	PROFIT	DATE CLOSED	BALANCE	% GAIN
20/12/2006	$1,200.00	$54.21	21/12/2006	$1,254.21	4.52%
21/12/2006	$1,254.21	$187.92	2/01/2007	$1,442.13	14.98%
4/01/2007	$1,442.13			$1,442.13	0.00%
8/01/2007	$2,200.00	add funds		$3,642.13	
4/01/2007	$3,642.13	$276.07	9/01/2007	$3,918.20	7.58%
9/01/2007	$3,918.20	$198.95	9/01/2007	$4,117.15	5.08%
9/01/2007	$4,117.15	$445.29	11/01/2007	$4,562.44	10.82%
11/01/2007	$4,562.44	$623.47	11/01/2007	$5,185.91	13.67%
11/01/2007	$5,185.91	$285.11	12/01/2007	$5,471.02	5.50%
15/01/2007	$5,471.02	$242.35	15/01/2007	$5,713.37	4.43%
15/01/2007	$5,713.13	$191.50	17/01/2007	$5,904.63	3.35%
17/01/2007	$5,904.63	$248.94	18/01/2007	$6,153.57	4.22%
18/01/2007	$6,153.57	$810.65	19/1/107	$6,964.22	13.17%
19/01/2007	$6,964.22	$304.10	22/1/07	$7,268.32	4.37%
22/1/2007	$7,268.32	$342.96	22/1/07	$7,611.28	4.72%
22/1/2007	$7,611.28	$350.65	23/1/2007	$7,961.93	4.61%
23/1/2007				Total	101.00%

These are figures from my live accounts.
I currently trade EUR/USD and UDS/CHF with 400:1 leverage at 15% margin. I am waiting for the GBP/USD to reverse and then I may add it to my trades but I will probably lower my margin if I do that.
My trading is my business and not gambling by any means. I think it's important to take emotion out of the trades to make a clear and informed decision. I also have a pre determined exit in line with my level of comfort for losses as we all know that can happen.
I hope this satisfies your curiosity and I do think it is important to back up statements with fact.
Happy Trading all 
BTW when in a casino I prefer red 36 but thats another story:


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## wayneL (15 April 2007)

Monkey Business...

Not one loss? 

What sort of trading system are you using?


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## nizar (15 April 2007)

Monkey business///

Not one loss..??

Hmmm....


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## Monkey Business (15 April 2007)

nizar said:


> Monkey business///
> 
> Not one loss..??
> 
> Hmmm....



 No I didnt say I didnt have any losses. 
I pulled out my capital and some profit before the Feb meltdown and traded all 4 pairs in a new account and lost my my profit. I think alot of traders got burned in February.
 But I got back in again in March and traded more wisely i.e. lower margin and safer pairs, using the same system and you can see the results. If I had been trading as I am now I think I would have been able to ride out February hence the change of strategy within the same system.  
We live and learn ( and when we learn we can make money )
 It works for me anyway. Each to their own.


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## nizar (13 June 2007)

Hi all, Iv been looking at getting into a bit of Forex.

Iv heard that OANDA is good for the same reason, you dont have to buy in lots, so you can more strictly adhere to position sizing that way.

Does anybody here use Interbank FX to trade?
I heard theyve got this Expert Advisor system where they can backtest strategies.

Apparently their demo has live prices and charts and backtesting facility so that might be worth a go.

In terms of trading, support/resistance/trendlines is what iv heard is the best to look at, and maybe short-term moving averages to help with entries and trailing stops?

What sort of timeframes do you guys trade?

Is it possible to trade forex with a longterm trending system? ie. trade off weekly charts ie. end of week, put your orders in for sydney open on monday? AUD/USD would have been one mother of a longterm trend since 74c in september last year 

And also, does any1 here use any sort of leverage?
If so how much (i heard 50:1 upto 400:1 is pretty commonplace in Forex) and how much interest do you pay?

Thanks.


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## Kauri (13 June 2007)

Interbank FX platform is the MetaTrader4 platform... has all that you mentioned... you can get it here without linking up to brokers etc, set up a non-expiring demo account ... and learn to stay awake 24Hrs a day  .


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## wayneL (13 June 2007)

nizar said:


> Is it possible to trade forex with a longterm trending system? ie. trade off weekly charts ie. end of week, put your orders in for sydney open on monday? AUD/USD would have been one mother of a longterm trend since 74c in september last year



Of course it's possible, but deep pockets required. Calculate the average daily range, in dollars of even a 1 lot, and you will see balls of steel are required unless WELL capitalized.

Average daily of the Euro futures contract (similar in size to 1 lot on forex) is in excess of AUD1000. Give that a wide trend following stop and thats a lot of moola for a small/medium account.

Of course if you can trade smaller size to conform to your normal risk parameters, fine.  

However, on a trend trading basis, expectancy is better on stocks IMHO. That's why the vast majority trade forex intraday.


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## nizar (13 June 2007)

wayneL said:


> Of course it's possible, but deep pockets required. Calculate the average daily range, in dollars of even a 1 lot, and you will see balls of steel are required unless WELL capitalized.
> 
> Average daily of the Euro futures contract (similar in size to 1 lot on forex) is in excess of AUD1000. Give that a wide trend following stop and thats a lot of moola for a small/medium account.
> 
> ...





Thanks for your thoughts Wayne.
I really appreciate it.

So big swings in forex then. Yeh well im far from being well capitalised lol.

How about commodities?
Longterm trend following would they work well with commodities?


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## nizar (13 June 2007)

Kauri said:


> Interbank FX platform is the MetaTrader4 platform... has all that you mentioned... you can get it here without linking up to brokers etc, set up a non-expiring demo account ... and learn to stay awake 24Hrs a day  .




Seems to me like the best way to learn.
Thanks Kauri.


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## nizar (13 June 2007)

Kauri said:


> Interbank FX platform is the MetaTrader4 platform... has all that you mentioned... you can get it here without linking up to brokers etc, set up a non-expiring demo account ... and learn to stay awake 24Hrs a day  .




Kauri.
I downloaded MetaTrader4, but the data i have is very delayed.
AUD/USD is .7521! lol


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## >Apocalypto< (13 June 2007)

Nizar,

I use a broker called xpress trade on forex you can also get a Forex mini practice account with 500 0to 50 000$ practice dollars great platform with free real time charts and news. As close as the real thing.

Also has trade ideas on the pair as well as lot of other information they let you practice with 25 pairs real time chat covers tick by tick all the way to monthly.

I have my GF doing it also use it to determine the weekly monthly trend which IG charts dont do next step i will open a mini account with them i am very impressed.

see link buddy:
http://www.xpresstrade.com/forex_demo_account.php


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## lesm (13 June 2007)

nizar said:


> Kauri.
> I downloaded MetaTrader4, but the data i have is very delayed.
> AUD/USD is .7521! lol




nizar,

If you are seeing delayed quotes using MT4 trying using a different provider whose demo account provides access to live data rather than delayed data.

Cheers.


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## Kauri (13 June 2007)

nizar said:


> Kauri.
> I downloaded MetaTrader4, but the data i have is very delayed.
> AUD/USD is .7521! lol




 nizar...
          this is the one I use and it is up to date/time...  I actually have it downloading automatically from here into my main charting programme...


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## doctorj (13 June 2007)

Which provider do you use Kauri?

Here's a package of config files to let you connect to different MT4 servers without having to reinstall.  Just extract them to your \MetaTrader 4\config folder.

Download from here: http://www.sharebigfile.com/file/185505/config-zip.html 
Let me know if the above doesn't work and I'll find somewhere else to host.


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## Kauri (13 June 2007)

doctorj said:


> Which provider do you use Kauri?
> 
> Here's a package of config files to let you connect to different MT4 servers without having to reinstall. Just extract them to your \MetaTrader 4\config folder.
> 
> ...




  Thanks Doc.. 
   There is also a zip file with 56 servers available here...  *post 31* http://www.forexfactory.com/showthread.php?t=5293&page=3  ..

 Do you have/use the expert that automatically downloads the data to your hard-disk from MT4? I have it running on all my tabbed pairs and use the ASCI convertor in DT which prints it out automatically at 1 min intervals on my DT charts. I think it would work with AMI, I haven't tried it yet, and from memory don't think AMI reads it automatically??

  Cheers 
      Kauri

  Cheers
            Kauri


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## caribean (14 June 2007)

Hi all,...how do you post images on this forum, thank you in advance.


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## Kauri (14 June 2007)

caribean said:


> Hi all,...how do you post images on this forum, thank you in advance.




Hi caribean
 This thread should explain it.. https://www.aussiestockforums.com/forums/showthread.php?t=6530  ..


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## caribean (14 June 2007)

Thank you Kauri,...i suppose i shouldn't have started the other thread...if we can get a few traders here, it should get the discussion going on a more regular basis.
Forex is a T/A paradise, imho, it can also be a lonely business if you trade almost every evening, like i do, (i don't place a trade every evening, but i do monitor for opp's).
That camping scene looks great mate.. you do a bit of it do you?


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## caribean (14 June 2007)

Anyone here familiar with Gartley ABCD's ?


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## nizar (14 June 2007)

caribean said:


> Thank you Kauri,...i suppose i shouldn't have started the other thread...if we can get a few traders here, it should get the discussion going on a more regular basis.
> Forex is a T/A paradise, imho, it can also be a lonely business if you trade almost every evening, like i do, (i don't place a trade every evening, but i do monitor for opp's).
> That camping scene looks great mate.. you do a bit of it do you?




Please post away.
Id be very keen to learn about Forex.


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## caribean (14 June 2007)

I've sent an email to administrators to find out how specific one is allowed to be before running into financial advise territory, with or without disclaimers.
One can not be too carefull in these days of litigation madness.
Maybe some of the members can help.
I think a EUR reversal is about to happen.


The above should not be taken for financial advise, i know the poster quite well....he is an idiot...so seek advise from a profesional


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