# Cotton discussion



## Investor123 (31 August 2008)

The market is operating under the bullish influence of the reversal and outside day up from a one-year low on August 20th.

Outlook for significant battle for planted acreage and potential for tropical storm damage to supply this season are factors which helped to support the reversal.

Both Comm Channel and Parabolic had signal BUY for cotton.

Bought 1 lot of cotton Dec08 at 70.85
Stop level at 66.00
Target level at 77.00
Value of 1 point equals US$500


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## Kauri (31 August 2008)

Investor123...  Is that you Brend... under a new name... or am I seeing tings?/

Cheers
..........Kauri


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## CanOz (31 August 2008)

Kauri said:


> Investor123...  Is that you Brend... under a new name... or am I seeing tings?/
> 
> Cheers
> ..........Kauri




I was thinking the same thing the other day Kauri!

CanOz


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## Investor123 (31 August 2008)

Yes, that's me, BREND. Hello old friends, I miss this forum. 

This site is few of the forum whereby forummers contribute great ideas and knowledgeable insights.


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## Kauri (31 August 2008)

Investor123 said:


> Yes, that's me, BREND. Hello old friends, I miss this forum.
> 
> This site is few of the forum whereby forummers contribute great ideas and knowledgeable insights.




 goood to see you back... but why did you need to change your Forum name... confuses those of us whe was following your previous Brend trades??
not to mention the a lerty mods who look for multiplying accounts...

Chers
..........Kauri


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## Investor123 (1 September 2008)

Kauri said:


> goood to see you back... but why did you need to change your Forum name... confuses those of us whe was following your previous Brend trades??
> not to mention the a lerty mods who look for multiplying accounts...
> 
> Chers
> ..........Kauri




I was banned from my Brend's account. So I tried to sneek in by using another account. Of course that does not escape the sharp eyes of the adminstrators. But they allow me to join this forum again.


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## SQUIZ (2 September 2008)

Would you recommend Cotton (or maybe wheat) for a novice trader...
I've had mixed results trading SPI 200
would they be safer than the SPI .... as far as $$ / point etc.
Any ideas gratefully accepted..:nosympath


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## Kauri (2 September 2008)

Investor123 said:


> I was banned from my Brend's account. So I tried to sneek in by using another account. Of course that does not escape the sharp eyes of the adminstrators. But they allow me to join this forum again.




 sorry, I just thought that when a poster changed thier ID thier old one was included for a certain time.. to avoid confusion... my mistake..
Cheers
............Kauri


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## Investor123 (2 September 2008)

Kauri said:


> sorry, I just thought that when a poster changed thier ID thier old one was included for a certain time.. to avoid confusion... my mistake..
> Cheers
> ............Kauri




Hi mate, no need to apologise.


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## Investor123 (3 September 2008)

SQUIZ said:


> Would you recommend Cotton (or maybe wheat) for a novice trader...
> I've had mixed results trading SPI 200
> would they be safer than the SPI .... as far as $$ / point etc.
> Any ideas gratefully accepted..:nosympath




If you are talking about safe trading, I would advise you to trade FX trading. Because FX trading mini contract is small enough to trade without feeling much pain or stress. 

Whereas in commodities, even the smallest contracts can cause substantial losses if you are on the wrong side.

Of course final decision depends on you. That is just my personal opinion.


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## Investor123 (3 September 2008)

On 26 August, I had bought 1 lot of cotton Dec08 at 70.85, stop level at 66.00, target level at 77.00. 

Currently cotton is trading at 70.18, so unrealised loss is US$335.

According to last week's CFTC data, net long positions from hedge funds had rose by 591 contracts or 14%. 

We should see cotton price moving up higher over the next few weeks.

My trading system is still signal BUY for cotton.


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## InTheMoneyStocks (17 February 2011)

*Cotton Keeps On Flying*

This morning cotton futures(CT H1) are soaring to new multi-year highs. This is a sign that inflation is soaring around the world. Traders and investors can follow or trade the iPath Dow Jones-UBS Cotton Subindex Total Return ETN (NYSE:BAL) which is higher by another $6.01 to $103.79 a share. As mentioned yesterday, consumers will be paying a lot of money for cotton products this year.







Nicholas Santiago
InTheMoneyStocks


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## Pager (17 February 2011)

Cotton has more than doubled in the past 12 months, other soft’s have also been screaming higher just look at Sugar or Coffee, then there’s the grains all have been soaring, Metals, the soaring price of Gold and Silver have been well documented in the press, Meats are now starting to really pick up.

Is inflation just around the corner, based on what’s happening in the Commodity futures markets that’s going to start really flowing through to the shop floor pretty soon then a huge YES.


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## GumbyLearner (18 February 2011)

Hi fellow commods enthusiasts

I think cotton looks headed higher in the short term. Realistically, it appears that a lot of Chinese farmers are holding out their stockpiles at present for better prices.

DYOR. This is not financial advice.


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## Dona Ferentes (26 July 2020)

_Chinese companies are increasingly shifting imports away from Australian growers towards domestic production in Xinjiang, the north-western Chinese province home to the persecuted Uighur Muslim minority. It comes as textile companies in China report the cost of Australian cotton is too high._

_Industry sources, who declined to be named because the commercial negotiations were confidential, said privately owned Chinese merchant Weilin had committed to buy up to half the Australian cotton crop this year, which for the 2019-20 season came in at 600,000 bales._

_Weilin offered growers about $620 a bale, at least $15 above the next best offer. But when the offer from its buyer in China dried up, it was unable to fulfil the contracts leaving growers hundreds of thousands of dollars out of pocket. Industry sources said growers were left with few options to resell their bales, and most took offers of about $420 a bale._

_*Weilin entered voluntary administration in July*. The administration firm Vincents has identified 130 creditors - taking in many more individual farm businesses which are involved in cooperative marketing companies and family trusts._

_The impacts varied across businesses. Many farmers spread risk by selling to several merchants, but there are reports of growers who sold more than 1000 bales to Weilin._

The collapse of Weilin is unprecedented in the cotton industry. Australian grain growers frequently cop losses when traders, who operate in a more volatile global market, go under unexpectedly. But never before has a large cotton merchant gone bust and left growers to foot the bill. The company’s directors, Zhang Lin and Liu Wei, also own Weifang CHN-Miracle Agricultural Products, based in Shandong in northern China. The company invested more than $200 million in a cotton logistics processing plant to process 500,000 tonnes of lint annually.

.... Andrew Woods, an analyst at Mecardo, said commodities consumed in China, such as beef and barley, were more open to manipulation than a re-exported material such as cotton.


> “_But something that goes into China and is processed and then re-exported in large amounts, that is a different matter from a Chinese perspective because they don't want to upset their exporters_,” he said.



Grant Hutchins, who runs forward market operations with Fox & Lillie Rural exporters, said the Weilin episode was an example of commercial risk in dealing with companies from Australia's largest trading partner.







> "It's a new paradigm with Chinese industrial companies when they come in and use market share and then use price as the hook," he said. “It's usually buyer beware but in this case its sellers beware. All Chinese companies have some level of government involvement. It might have been that the state representative in the company has been told to cut it loose. "



Hutchins backed the government’s more assertive China strategy. 







> “I heard some China apologists say why are we being so hawkish? Why would be biting the hand that feeds us?” he said. “Worst case China hits us, the dollar collapses, and we get other markets. Some people would be significantly affected by China pulling the pin but all that means is someone else's misfortune in the short term might be better for others in the long term."



https://www.smh.com.au/politics/fed...-chinese-firm-s-collapse-20200725-p55fdl.html













Large companies in China often have links to the Chinese Communist Party.


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