# Bitcoin and cryptocurrency trading thread



## greggles

In the last couple of days, people I know who have no real previous involvement with financial markets have told me they have either started or intend to start trading Bitcoin and other cryptocurrencies. Cryptocurrency mania is well and truly spreading like wildfire. Brokers will be all over this very quickly now. Expect them all to start offering Bitcoin and cryptocurrency trading very soon, if they aren't already offering it.

So who is trading cryptocurrencies? I'm seriously considering it. The volatility is insane. With so many inexperienced traders out there punting like crazy, it could be a whole new world of opportunity.

I'm starting this thread so ASFers can start discussing cryptocurrency trading generally and hopefully post some setups and/or technical analysis.


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## CanOz

It’s not that easy to trade. Instruments like cfds where one can take both sides of the trade are cost prohibitive due to the spread. The futures are not liquid yet. The exchange only allow you to buy the “currencies “....long only. That’s not trading....


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## greggles

CanOz said:


> It’s not that easy to trade. Instruments like cfds where one can take both sides of the trade are cost prohibitive due to the spread. The futures are not liquid yet. The exchange only allow you to buy the “currencies “....long only. That’s not trading....



I am presuming this will change as the retail market demands more choice and flexibility. Brokers will do whatever they need to do to ensure that brokerage keeps rolling in. I imagine the market will meet consumer demand and different instruments will be made available as the cryptocurrency trading niche matures. Who knows, we might have cryptocurrency ETFs before too long.


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## Wysiwyg

Bitwise Investment Fund (Hold 10).


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## CanOz

It's not really up to the brokers...these aren't products that are traded on normal exchanges, for lack of a better word. Next week the second futures contract lists....give it time and the liquidity will come.


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## Wysiwyg

greggles said:


> I'm seriously considering it. The volatility is insane.



Good time to buy you reckon.


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## galumay

greggles said:


> people I know who have no real previous involvement with financial markets have told me they have either started or intend to start trading Bitcoin and other cryptocurrencies.




Surely that informs you as to why its so dangerous to play in this speculative bubble market of a valueless concept? If you think its going up quick, watch the plunge when it bursts.


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## greggles

Wysiwyg said:


> Good time to buy you reckon.
> 
> View attachment 85229




It's certainly seen one helluva run. The intraday swings are pretty intense though. Plenty of trading opportunities if you can catch them, that's for sure.


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## greggles

galumay said:


> Surely that informs you as to why its so dangerous to play in this speculative bubble market of a valueless concept? If you think its going up quick, watch the plunge when it bursts.




As long as you're playing with money you're prepared to lose it's OK. I was thinking of just dipping my toes in and see how I go.


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## galumay

greggles said:


> As long as you're playing with money you're prepared to lose it's OK.




As i said elsewhere, all the phrases you hear before catastrophic collapse occours!

Just give me the money if you are prepared to lose it!


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## greggles

galumay said:


> As i said elsewhere, all the phrases you hear before catastrophic collapse occours!
> 
> Just give me the money if you are prepared to lose it!




Never underestimate the power of greed. Also, don't forget that John McAfee has promised to eat his dick if Bitcoin isn't US$1,000,000 by 2020.


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## galumay

greggles said:


> Also, don't forget that John McAfee has promised to eat his dick if Bitcoin isn't US$1,000,000 by 2020.




Still....just give me your money!


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## tech/a

So let’s think about that

Would you put down $ 1000 for a pie in the sky return of $ 50000 in 2 years
Or
Sit back and watch

If you’ve ever bought a lottery ticket your chances are way less!

Would you short it with the same $1000

Could bankrupt you!

How many sat back and watched the property boom
The AU$ rise from 50c to $1.10
Gold from $250 to $1700
Oil from $140 to $40
DJI 9000 to 24000
Tech boom

Grab the pop corn
Champers will always be too expensive.

Personally think the Risk is worth it.
E commerce will change but it’s here to stay
Keep your eyes peeled for other whacko ideas
Trust me there is plenty in the pipeline.


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## pixel

galumay said:


> As i said elsewhere, all the phrases you hear before catastrophic collapse occours!
> 
> Just give me the money if you are prepared to lose it!



... and if you're wrong: *Are you prepared to pay me 100,000% interest by 2020?*
I'll be generous and let you keep the principal. Just pay me the interest.


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## tech/a

Ripple up 40% over night ! 

Better than a lottery ticket


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## notting

tech/a said:


> Ripple up 40% over night !
> Better than a lottery ticket




Yeah but your trading bitcoin.
A tats ticket costs $1 pays 4 million And a horse won a race somewhere at 100:1 yesterday.   So what!?

Not to mention Bitcoin is 16,807 down from it's 17,152 highs


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## galumay

pixel said:


> ... and if you're wrong:




You are missing the point.


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## galumay

tech/a said:


> So let’s think about that...




I guess you should think some more, you have cherry picked with hindsight. If you keeep gambling we know what happens eventually - you end up with no money. 

I really wonder why we have gambling threads on what is purportedly an investing forum!


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## greggles

galumay said:


> I really wonder why we have gambling threads on what is purportedly an investing forum!




In a very real sense, all investing and trading is gambling. Even if you buy a blue chip for the long term, you are simply betting it will go up. You could be right, you could be wrong. Blue chips are simply the favourites while speccies are the long shots that pay out better. It's all still betting on an uncertain outcome. So, in the end it's just gambling. There are good gamblers and bad gamblers, just like there are good investors and bad investors.

Nothing wrong with having a punt.


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## notting

Easy to pick the 5th in retrospect.




These are in AU$


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## lone ranger

This reply is not directed at anyone of the above comments as I have no interest in bitcoin, I trade options every morning about 4-6am AED for the US markets, and I drive uber about 5 hours a day for about 3 or 4 days a week, why is this relevant? Because The finest economic mind of the 20th century Maynard Keynes described when to sell before the great crash of 1929, "when bellhops and taxi drivers are talking about stocks it is time to sell", waiters and office workers all get in my uber and about 80% of the ones under 40 rant about bitcoin, time to get out quick, as a corollary to that Warren Buffet was asked how he got so rich;"by selling too early". Don't buy now you have missed the boat.
Bitcoin is also a game of hot potato, you can not use bit coin to buy practically anything useful apart from cocaine or pornography, so what is it's REAL value, its tulip-mania and the dotcom bubble all over again, if you buy do you know when its going to end, because it is,no.
Seriously, no mathematically sophisticated or rational person takes absolutely any notice of charts and technical trading, eg the most successful investors Warren Buffet, ed Thorpe, Jeff Simmons, these guys are quants, the stories about buffet and benjamin graham are bull****( he uses fundamentals but he is a full kelly quant trader). These guys can count there losses from their trading since the 60s and 70s on the fingers of one hand with a few missing! All the technical boys don't last 10 years they max out luck.
People with bitcoin fail to separate a major software engineering breakthrough, block chain, whoever has the patent would be worth billions but I think it open source that is incredible. From currency trading .
Block chain is incredibly valuable, bitcoin is virtually worth less, you can only realize real cash when you pass the hot potato the one left holding it gets burnt, you cant buy a Maserati with bitcoin, or a cup of coffee, it is only valuable on silk road, and the like. You cant convert bitcoins with your American express or cash them at the commonwealth bank, be very very afraid of bitcoin.
Just because there is a limit of 21 million does not make them rare that is arbitrary at any point the algorithm can be changed and another 21 million mined and so on, its a con. Seriously you can see people advertise on freelancer to hire Indian spaghetti code programmers to mine bitcoin for 2 rupees an hour seriously.
May the force be with you, and keep your underpants clean.


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## tech/a

If it ends up very profitable it will be deemed a shrewd *INVESTMENT*

If it fails it will be deemed gambling----BY YOU

Me I see it as a quantified Risk and just another *business capital venture

All *our friends warned us of loosing everything in 2000 when we held 10 houses
and 2 commercial properties.
Sold the last one 2 yrs ago the rest freehold (4)---so *I've heard it all before!*

Haven't cherry picked anything
Back to Crypto's
Our spread or more to the point that chosen by the guys \(Geeky Quants)
Im backing on another project --- is as

I posted yesterday on the Bitcoin Brokers thread.


"Interestingly after some discussion today we have cashed out of all but Ripple
Bit cash and Ethereum. Looking for a top here and a fall soon and after Xmas."

But seriously if it drops 50% I really don't care nor do they.
But if it rises 5000% all of us *WILL CARE*. Oh its all up $20K--now.
1 X 10 and 2 X 5


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## notting

tech/a said:


> *All *our friends warned us of loosing everything in 2000 when we held 10 houses
> and 2 commercial properties.




Comparing cryptocurrency to a housing  is unbelievably stupid.
No problem taking a punt on cryptos a couple of years back however, if you were up with the tech, *not now!*


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## tech/a

I've been un believably stupid for quite a few years.
Look forward to many more.




notting said:


> Comparing cryptocurrency to a housing  is unbelievably stupid.
> No problem taking a punt on cryptos a couple of years back however, if you were up with the tech, *not now!*




As seen in this statement ABOVE----who's using hindsight???

I bought BIG at 6 c Sold at 11.5c
Watched as it rose to 50c bought again and sold for $1.50 ish

Watched again as it rose to $2.20 with my mouth open shaking my head
loudly protesting that this *COULDNT* go further!
Bought again $2.50 sold $3.40 ish
Watched as it Rose to $4 + again bleating how *STUPID* this was.
Now $3.44----How stupid was is stupid? 

Happy for you to watch.


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## notting

You bought BIG.  Wow what percentage of your net worth would BIG be exactly?
Given your weighting it against housing, you'd think you probably eclipsed your housing assets with that if it was so BIG
I'd say this is big .....
https://finance.nine.com.au/2017/10/11/16/11/dutch-man-sells-house-for-bitcoin


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## tech/a

BIG the company. BIG is its code

What the??


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## lone ranger

greggles said:


> In a very real sense, all investing and trading is gambling. Even if you buy a blue chip for the long term, you are simply betting it will go up. You could be right, you could be wrong. Blue chips are simply the favourites while speccies are the long shots that pay out better. It's all still betting on an uncertain outcome. So, in the end it's just gambling. There are good gamblers and bad gamblers, just like there are good investors and bad investors.
> 
> Nothing wrong with having a punt.



No you are wrong even with gambling some scientists like ed thorpe proved you could beat las vegas,yes not with luck but with  skill and mathematics and intelligence. Read the book Beat the dealer by ed thorp ,don't get excited, since he published. the casinos all over the world have changed the rules of blackjack and baccarat so many times, the edge is so minute it is almost non existant. However horse racing is a rich and profitable area for many Economics and mathematics professors,  Burton Malkiel of Random Walk down Wall Street fame, Princeton Professor, two of his students produced a book on the mathematics of horse racing, called the professors guide to racetrack betting, and Professor William Ziemba wrote a book called beat the racetrack where he devised a scientific method of getting a edge, not chance, his most famous student of racing was William Bentner who ran the most successful punting syndicate of all time in Hong Kong in the 80' netting billions, he had an Aussie partener who split to live in the Phillipines who was also incredibly successful, he bet by computerised account in  Hong Kong. The guy that owns Mona in Tasmania was a professonal Quant punter, and I can go on and on , only a fool trusts luck.
Same with the sharemarket if you think that arbitrage begins and ends with buying low and selling high, or selling high and buying low and watching charts you are doomed on average to breaking even at best and matching inflation. If you understand quantitative methods and proper financial analysis, you can find dozens of real time profitable arbitrages, they are not easy to find or everyone would be rich, they are like looking for a needle in a haystack but an 80% or greater chance of payback or even better certainty, is like finding a gold mine, playing every day with no idea, is no better than guessing and technical trading is guessing. I am not letting the cat out of the bag but there is plenty of real stuff on real ways to make real money out there, it is neither respected in mainstream academia, or in Broking houses or big banks only the smartest private hedge fund operators know it. I do not think there is a single managed fund in all Australia that knows jack **** about anything.
Neither successfull punting or trading in the markets is gambling, it is investment science.


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## tech/a

notting said:


> You bought BIG.  Wow what percentage of your net worth would BIG be exactly?
> Given your weighting it against housing, you'd think you probably eclipsed your housing assets with that if it was so BIG
> I'd say this is big .....
> https://finance.nine.com.au/2017/10/11/16/11/dutch-man-sells-house-for-bitcoin




So this Stupid guy put his house on it for 85 Bit coins in October.
$510,000 AU now its worth $1.4 million

Another stupid person!


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## lone ranger

lone ranger said:


> No you are wrong even with gambling some scientists like ed thorpe proved you could beat las vegas,yes not with luck but with  skill and mathematics and intelligence. Read the book Beat the dealer by ed thorp ,don't get excited, since he published. the casinos all over the world have changed the rules of blackjack and baccarat so many times, the edge is so minute it is almost non existant. However horse racing is a rich and profitable area for many Economics and mathematics professors,  Burton Malkiel of Random Walk down Wall Street fame, Princeton Professor, two of his students produced a book on the mathematics of horse racing, called the professors guide to racetrack betting, and Professor William Ziemba wrote a book called beat the racetrack where he devised a scientific method of getting a edge, not chance, his most famous student of racing was William Bentner who ran the most successful punting syndicate of all time in Hong Kong in the 80' netting billions, he had an Aussie partener who split to live in the Phillipines who was also incredibly successful, he bet by computerised account in  Hong Kong. The guy that owns Mona in Tasmania was a professonal Quant punter, and I can go on and on , only a fool trusts luck.
> Same with the sharemarket if you think that arbitrage begins and ends with buying low and selling high, or selling high and buying low and watching charts you are doomed on average to breaking even at best and matching inflation. If you understand quantitative methods and proper financial analysis, you can find dozens of real time profitable arbitrages, they are not easy to find or everyone would be rich, they are like looking for a needle in a haystack but an 80% or greater chance of payback or even better certainty, is like finding a gold mine, playing every day with no idea, is no better than guessing and technical trading is guessing. I am not letting the cat out of the bag but there is plenty of real stuff on real ways to make real money out there, it is neither respected in mainstream academia, or in Broking houses or big banks only the smartest private hedge fund operators know it. I do not think there is a single managed fund in all Australia that knows jack **** about anything.
> Neither successfull punting or trading in the markets is gambling, it is investment science.



The difference between a lotto ticket with say 5 numbers in 69 is about 1 in 3 billion , you say but someone has to win , not necessarily the jackpot though most are minor or less prizes, and the chances are really ridiculous. In a horse race the odds seem great say 10 horses and 100/1 thats 10% chance, I am afraid not that is why people like you lose, and think long shots are great. The facts are of a sample of 9,000 races only 300 won with odds of 20/1 or greater, won if you continue to gamble on longshots even if you win you will lose, and lotto and lotteries are best bet on, by keeping your money in your wallet and investing wisely.


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## notting

tech/a said:


> BIG the company. BIG is its code
> 
> What the??




Sorry when you said BIG  I thought you were refering to your relative investment size!!!




tech/a said:


> So this Stupid guy put his house on it for 85 Bit coins in October.
> $510,000 AU now its worth $1.4 million
> Another stupid person!




Yes!!!!  Unbelievably stupid.  He hasn't left the casino yet!!!


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## tech/a

notting said:


> Sorry when you said BIG  I thought you were refering to your relative investment size!!!
> 
> 
> *Yes I know a BIG mistake.*
> 
> Yes!!!!  Unbelievably stupid.  He hasn't left the casino yet!!!




*But he is walking around with the chips in his hand.
He has an opportunity none of us have. I like that stupid.*


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## notting

I'd say he's still sitting at the table and his chips are on it not yet in his hand!!!


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## Bill M

Hi guys sorry to barge in, which exchange do you people use? I have a nano s and I might be needing to do some changing soon. I prefer one that doesn't ask for your name and address. So in AU which is best? Thanks.


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## Wysiwyg

tech/a said:


> As seen in this statement ABOVE----who's using hindsight???
> 
> I bought BIG at 6 c Sold at 11.5c
> Watched as it rose to 50c bought again and sold for $1.50 ish
> 
> Watched again as it rose to $2.20 with my mouth open shaking my head
> loudly protesting that this *COULDNT* go further!
> Bought again $2.50 sold $3.40 ish
> Watched as it Rose to $4 + again bleating how *STUPID* this was.
> Now $3.44----How stupid was is stupid?
> 
> Happy for you to watch.



This is representative of most traders. Not knowing where a price will go and taking profit when they 'think' so. Great hindsight examples and everyone has them. The option of holding a percentage of the original parcel at 6 cents to let run is also available.


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## tech/a

In hindsight my trading of BIG in comparison to available return---was average.

But average has served me well.

I was just chatting to a friend who has lost a lot on a deal.

I said every day we are Genius or Moron.
Losses we feel like Morons and wins Geniuses.

Only *participation* gives us the opportunity to be one or the other.

Like the Wine salesmen sent to China to scout markets.
On their return

(1) Waste of time they don't drink wine!
(2) WOW they don't drink wine!

Many here are No 1s


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## notting

It's supposed to be a means of transferring money not going mental trying to make money!
https://www.cnbc.com/2017/12/14/litecoin-founder-charlie-lee-talks-bitcoin-cryptocurrencies.html


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## Rypieee

I have been watching the Crypto markets for a while now (3 days) and i noticed that liquidity in the market is extremely thin... Watching the orderbook via btcmarkets. 

Should a "run with your money" situation appears, I'd imagine that the plunge will transpire within minutes...

Another scary thing is friends with no financial knowledge are getting themselves into Cryptos and they are calling me everyday to ask me how to buy or sell a bitcoin, how to read a candle stick chart and the orderbook etc..

Scary when those individuals make up a significant portion of the market participants...

In saying that, if you had money you are willing to lose, I'm all for it to take a punt on cryptos!


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## lone ranger

tech/a said:


> So this Stupid guy put his house on it for 85 Bit coins in October.
> $510,000 AU now its worth $1.4 million
> 
> Another stupid person!



Read the great crash by John Kenneth Gailbraith, huge sums were made overnight every day for years, only to disappear in a couple hours and worst economic depression hit for, 15 years if it was not for the second world war production may have never resumed and the stock market did not recover for over 25 years. Son you have a lot to learn about reality and life.


tech/a said:


> So let’s think about that
> 
> Would you put down $ 1000 for a pie in the sky return of $ 50000 in 2 years
> Or
> Sit back and watch
> 
> If you’ve ever bought a lottery ticket your chances are way less!
> 
> Would you short it with the same $1000
> In your quotes of oil , gold, property, etc , you have a biased sample.you are assuming returns are completely linear from Point a to point B straight up, a complete fallacy which shows complete mathematical ignorance, The prices Zig zag and timing is everything to get anywhere near these gains, in going from point A to point B there was enormous draw downs for all of these things, if you did not get the unknown absolutely right you would have been lucky to break even , returns on investment are not measured by annual capital growth rate, but general continuously compounding daily returns summed over the entire period, these were very volatile investments so they would have at best returned probably about 7-15%, their volatility would have been 20-30% or greater. their risk was great compared to returns.you could have gained the same returns by just buying and holding s&p 500 etf index SPY, equal returns  of about 12-15% with volatility around 10% and sleep well and not jump around like a monkey in front of desk with a monitor screaming buy buy buy,sell sell sell, every five minutes, but basically that is how sociopathic gamblers get their jollies. I suggest you mortgage your his house and sell the shirt on your back to buy bitcoin and like your mate who doubled his money by selling house ,  keep on holding for the golden moment and don't get your money and run , you will be lining up at the salvation army soup kitchen for a meal clothes and accommodation, any day sooner or later, bitcoin is worth nothing till you turn it into real cash it is just paper money, like the value of a share till you sell it it really is worth nothing, just a estimated notional value, derived by the current market price.
> 
> Could bankrupt you!
> 
> How many sat back and watched the property boom
> The AU$ rise from 50c to $1.10
> Gold from $250 to $1700
> Oil from $140 to $40
> DJI 9000 to 24000
> Tech boom
> 
> Grab the pop corn
> Champers will always be too expensive.
> 
> Personally think the Risk is worth it.
> E commerce will change but it’s here to stay
> Keep your eyes peeled for other whacko ideas
> Trust me there is plenty in the pipeline.





tech/a said:


> So let’s think about that
> 
> Would you put down $ 1000 for a pie in the sky return of $ 50000 in 2 years
> Or
> Sit back and watch
> 
> If you’ve ever bought a lottery ticket your chances are way less!
> 
> Would you short it with the same $1000
> 
> Could bankrupt you!
> 
> How many sat back and watched the property boom
> The AU$ rise from 50c to $1.10
> Gold from $250 to $1700
> Oil from $140 to $40
> DJI 9000 to 24000
> Tech boom
> 
> Grab the pop corn
> Champers will always be too expensive.
> 
> Personally think the Risk is worth it.
> E commerce will change but it’s here to stay
> Keep your eyes peeled for other whacko ideas
> Trust me there is plenty in the pipeline.


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## lone ranger

Rypieee said:


> I have been watching the Crypto markets for a while now (3 days) and i noticed that liquidity in the market is extremely thin... Watching the orderbook via btcmarkets.
> 
> Should a "run with your money" situation appears, I'd imagine that the plunge will transpire within minutes...
> 
> Another scary thing is friends with no financial knowledge are getting themselves into Cryptos and they are calling me everyday to ask me how to buy or sell a bitcoin, how to read a candle stick chart and the orderbook etc..
> 
> Scary when those individuals make up a significant portion of the market participants...
> 
> In saying that, if you had money you are willing to lose, I'm all for it to take a punt on cryptos!



I would not think being able to read candlestick chart charts, and any other technical indicator makes you a superior trader than someone with complete ignorance, you are in effect reading tea leaves from dirty cups and thinking you know something , real. And I don't think anyone, should bet any money on cryptos, if you want to gamble by a spdr index and hold, it pays dividends , is composed of real tangible physical assets, is not illegal, is not run by the Russian mafia mostly, and returns real returns, shooting stars fall to the earth very quickly.


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## lone ranger

lone ranger said:


> I would not think being able to read candlestick chart charts, and any other technical indicator makes you a superior trader than someone with complete ignorance, you are in effect reading tea leaves from dirty cups and thinking you know something , real. And I don't think anyone, should bet any money on cryptos, if you want to gamble by a spdr index and hold, it pays dividends , is composed of real tangible physical assets, is not illegal, is not run by the Russian mafia mostly, and returns real returns, shooting stars fall to the earth very quickly.



If you know how to sell options you can get returns of between 30-50% a year low risk, for no money down, people pay you, you never risk losing your entire betting bankroll. But the reason why it is uknown is because it requires statistics and at least college mathematics, and people with soft mushy brains ,like to imagine they can read squiggly lines on charts, their quesses  have always proven no better than basically flipping a coin.


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## tech/a

lone ranger said:


> Read the great crash by John Kenneth Gailbraith, huge sums were made overnight every day for years, only to disappear in a couple hours and worst economic depression hit for, 15 years if it was not for the second world war production may have never resumed and the stock market did not recover for over 25 years. Son you have a lot to learn about reality and life.




Son how cute 
I’m a little older than son 
Mine is a little older than 20 yr old sons
By quite a bit.

Reality of life 
You maybe surprised by the reality I live.


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## lone ranger

lone ranger said:


> Read the great crash by John Kenneth Gailbraith, huge sums were made overnight every day for years, only to disappear in a couple hours and worst economic depression hit for, 15 years if it was not for the second world war production may have never resumed and the stock market did not recover for over 25 years. Son you have a lot to learn about reality and life.





tech/a said:


> If it ends up very profitable it will be deemed a shrewd *INVESTMENT*
> 
> If it fails it will be deemed gambling----BY YOU
> 
> Me I see it as a quantified Risk and just another *business capital venture
> 
> All *our friends warned us of loosing everything in 2000 when we held 10 houses
> and 2 commercial properties.
> Sold the last one 2 yrs ago the rest freehold (4)---so *I've heard it all before!*
> 
> Haven't cherry picked anything
> Back to Crypto's
> Our spread or more to the point that chosen by the guys \(Geeky Quants)
> Im backing on another project --- is as
> 
> I posted yesterday on the Bitcoin Brokers thread.
> 
> 
> "Interestingly after some discussion today we have cashed out of all but Ripple
> Bit cash and Ethereum. Looking for a top here and a fall soon and after Xmas."
> 
> But seriously if it drops 50% I really don't care nor do they.
> But if it rises 5000% all of us *WILL CARE*. Oh its all up $20K--now.
> 1 X 10 and 2 X 5



Property is just lagging the US subprime crisis you are lucky to have cashed out not clever, ln public libraries every shelf is full of books 100 properties in3 years etc.and every hall in every city has been full of spruikers selling housing leverage pyramid schemes for 15 years. It is another con whose time will come. I worked for a rich Jewish Property magnate a very cruel and clever man, and he lost a couple a hundred million on Brisbane  canals property, during the boom time and he is ten times smarter than you, he started with nothing and is worth about 300 million in cash and probably a half billion property portfolio., in Australia, and how much he has in offshore tax havens who knows. I know of thousands of bankruptcies from this easy property dream I worked in the Insolvency branch of NSW courts, and issued writs of possession and mortgagee sales every day, and foreclosures.I then went to work for the rich solicitor, buying foreclosed properties, and watching him loan money to distressed investors to repossess their properties for a song. There are bigger cleverer sharks out there than you.
My comments about how to calculate drawdowns real returns , and growth rates seems to have been deleted, you really are not sure how much you have invested or made you are jut sure you are rich, but as I said I can make at least 30% a year, with no money down just a defined risk margin , people pay me, and I never risk more than 2% of my capital so when you are so clever and smug about those geeks, you risk 100 % everyday and invest every penny. I receive 100% for the promise at maximum of the loss of 20% of 2% of my capital, I make 30% return every 30-45 days with 80% likelihood of success, with just the promise of money , people pay me real cash straight into my broking account every 30 days for this, figure it out. I know you people ignorant of probability think that thing like probabilities of 80% are just fancy guesses they are real statistical facts, proven by years of trading of thousands of quants, law of large numbers and the kelly criterion prove this but that is beyond your complexity horizon


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## cutz

lone ranger said:


> people pay me, and I never risk more than 2% of my capital so when you are so clever and smug about those geeks, you risk 100 % everyday and invest every penny. I receive 100% for the promise at maximum of the loss of 20% of 2% of my capital, I make 30% return every 30-45 days with 80% likelihood of success, with just the promise of money , people pay me real cash straight into my broking account every 30 days for this, figure it out. I know you people ignorant of probability think that thing like probabilities of 80% are just fancy guesses they are real statistical facts, proven by years of trading of thousands of quants, law of large numbers and the kelly criterion prove this but that is beyond your complexity horizon




Sorry about the thread drift but are you selling naked index puts ?


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## lone ranger

lone ranger said:


> Property is just lagging the US subprime crisis you are lucky to have cashed out not clever, ln public libraries every shelf is full of books 100 properties in3 years etc.and every hall in every city has been full of spruikers selling housing leverage pyramid schemes for 15 years. It is another con whose time will come. I worked for a rich Jewish Property magnate a very cruel and clever man, and he lost a couple a hundred million on Brisbane  canals property, during the boom time and he is ten times smarter than you, he started with nothing and is worth about 300 million in cash and probably a half billion property portfolio., in Australia, and how much he has in offshore tax havens who knows. I know of thousands of bankruptcies from this easy property dream I worked in the Insolvency branch of NSW courts, and issued writs of possession and mortgagee sales every day, and foreclosures.I then went to work for the rich solicitor, buying foreclosed properties, and watching him loan money to distressed investors to repossess their properties for a song. There are bigger cleverer sharks out there than you.
> My comments about how to calculate drawdowns real returns , and growth rates seems to have been deleted, you really are not sure how much you have invested or made you are jut sure you are rich, but as I said I can make at least 30% a year, with no money down just a defined risk margin , people pay me, and I never risk more than 2% of my capital so when you are so clever and smug about those geeks, you risk 100 % everyday and invest every penny. I receive 100% for the promise at maximum of the loss of 20% of 2% of my capital, I make 30% return every 30-45 days with 80% likelihood of success, with just the promise of money , people pay me real cash straight into my broking account every 30 days for this, figure it out. I know you people ignorant of probability think that thing like probabilities of 80% are just fancy guesses they are real statistical facts, proven by years of trading of thousands of quants, law of large numbers and the kelly criterion prove this but that is beyond your complexity horizon



I would also like to add I don't care whether the market goes up or down it makes no difference to me I profit either way, every time I trade in boom times or crashes, it makes no difference to me when I trade, I never buy, I only sell or Buy long sell short on the same asset, in different ratios. at different expiries and strike prices. and hold assets which are hedged and give a low beta weighting further eliminating risk and loss. Your welcome to the emperors new clothes and flying naked. I just started trying to warn people bitcoin smells fishy. I am going back to the options forum.


----------



## cutz

lone ranger said:


> I never buy, I only sell or Buy long sell short on the same asset, in different ratios. at different expiries and strike prices. and hold assets which are hedged and give a low beta weighting further eliminating risk and loss.




OK, I get it, so you're selling naked puts and covered calls. How long have you been doing this ?


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## skyQuake

lone ranger said:


> IYour welcome to the emperors new clothes and flying naked. I just started trying to warn people bitcoin smells fishy.



Something about Pot and Kettle comes to mind



> I just started trying to warn people bitcoin smells fishy



Lots of warnings about it from $500 onwards... Personally I'd rather participate in bubble upside than than just watch it go up and whine about valuations
______________________________________________________________

Anyways getting back on topic. BTC Markets/Coinspot etc all trade at a decent prem to US exchanges. Anyone had any luck setting up a fundable acct in one of the big US exchanges?


----------



## tech/a

lone ranger said:


> Property is just lagging the US subprime crisis you are lucky to have cashed out not clever, ln public libraries every shelf is full of books 100 properties in3 years etc.and every hall in every city has been full of spruikers selling housing leverage pyramid schemes for 15 years. It is another con whose time will come. I worked for a rich Jewish Property magnate a very cruel and clever man, and he lost a couple a hundred million on Brisbane  canals property, during the boom time and he is ten times smarter than you, he started with nothing and is worth about 300 million in cash and probably a half billion property portfolio., in Australia, and how much he has in offshore tax havens who knows. I know of thousands of bankruptcies from this easy property dream I worked in the Insolvency branch of NSW courts, and issued writs of possession and mortgagee sales every day, and foreclosures.I then went to work for the rich solicitor, buying foreclosed properties, and watching him loan money to distressed investors to repossess their properties for a song. There are bigger cleverer sharks out there than you.
> My comments about how to calculate drawdowns real returns , and growth rates seems to have been deleted, you really are not sure how much you have invested or made you are jut sure you are rich, but as I said I can make at least 30% a year, with no money down just a defined risk margin , people pay me, and I never risk more than 2% of my capital so when you are so clever and smug about those geeks, you risk 100 % everyday and invest every penny. I receive 100% for the promise at maximum of the loss of 20% of 2% of my capital, I make 30% return every 30-45 days with 80% likelihood of success, with just the promise of money , people pay me real cash straight into my broking account every 30 days for this, figure it out. I know you people ignorant of probability think that thing like probabilities of 80% are just fancy guesses they are real statistical facts, proven by years of trading of thousands of quants, law of large numbers and the kelly criterion prove this but that is beyond your complexity horizon





Oh my!

A sufferer of the Cassandra Complex!


----------



## lone ranger

skyQuake said:


> Something about Pot and Kettle comes to mind
> 
> 
> Lots of warnings about it from $500 onwards... Personally I'd rather participate in bubble upside than than just watch it go up and whine about valuations
> ______________________________________________________________
> 
> Anyways getting back on topic. BTC Markets/Coinspot etc all trade at a decent prem to US exchanges. Anyone had any luck setting up a fundable acct in one of the big US exchanges?



You like most people see only once it was 500 now it is 20000, yes but when it was 500 you could have bought and it went to 750 and you got excited then it dropped to 250, , a lot of people drop there bundle and sell only to buy in in the next wave of mania at say 5000, then it goes to 10000, then it it drops 6500 and they panic again people really never calculate accurately the returns on investment, and where they stand on the ledger, people would be shocked if they did, there not really the millionaires they think they are, and bitcoin is totally unpredictable at any given point you jump on the bandwaggon, it can plummet and leave you penniless, my point is there is good solid investments giving good returns low risk that are real and asset backed, and pay quarterly dividends, bitcoin gives you nothing but promises and hope of being bigger than gordon gecko. Also on google feed I got news yesterday all the major bitcoin exchanges went down yesterday they could not cope with high volumes of traffic and blockchain was started to crash it could not recalculate fast enough. If anyone here has read the father of chaos theories book .Benoit Mandelbrot  the famous physicists book the misbehaviour of markets the rapid upward scaling of transaction volumes  in time is the first sign of chaos, in the market, the rest is 1987, GFC Dotcom etc. But I would absolutely never recommend anyone do anything but check what I say and make your own mind up, I could be totally wrong, nothing is certain in gambling, but I dont gamble I trade and use Investment science and make solid returns, not dreams of unimagined wealth, remember trading in things like bit coin is a zero sum gain for every winner there has to be a loser, can you guarantee you will win by holding on.


----------



## lone ranger

lone ranger said:


> You like most people see only once it was 500 now it is 20000, yes but when it was 500 you could have bought and it went to 750 and you got excited then it dropped to 250, , a lot of people drop there bundle and sell only to buy in in the next wave of mania at say 5000, then it goes to 10000, then it it drops 6500 and they panic again people really never calculate accurately the returns on investment, and where they stand on the ledger, people would be shocked if they did, there not really the millionaires they think they are, and bitcoin is totally unpredictable at any given point you jump on the bandwaggon, it can plummet and leave you penniless, my point is there is good solid investments giving good returns low risk that are real and asset backed, and pay quarterly dividends, bitcoin gives you nothing but promises and hope of being bigger than gordon gecko. Also on google feed I got news yesterday all the major bitcoin exchanges went down yesterday they could not cope with high volumes of traffic and blockchain was started to crash it could not recalculate fast enough. If anyone here has read the father of chaos theories book .Benoit Mandelbrot  the famous physicists book the misbehaviour of markets the rapid upward scaling of transaction volumes  in time is the first sign of chaos, in the market, the rest is 1987, GFC Dotcom etc. But I would absolutely never recommend anyone do anything but check what I say and make your own mind up, I could be totally wrong, nothing is certain in gambling, but I dont gamble I trade and use Investment science and make solid returns, not dreams of unimagined wealth, remember trading in things like bit coin is a zero sum gain for every winner there has to be a loser, can you guarantee you will win by holding on.



It is ridiculous to say value does not matter, I do not mean traditional stock valuations, of course price is the only real value at any given point in time, I will not go into the mathematics and economics behind that conjecture, but what value is important to something as capricious and unpredictable as bit coin is its intrinsic value, or what you get in a fire sale or complete meltdown, it has no intrinsic value it is a promise given by the Russian mafia that you can buy some cocaine or pornography on silk road or the dark web, think about it. You all fail to seem to understand that at least 50% of successful trading is risk management and money management.


----------



## lone ranger

lone ranger said:


> It is ridiculous to say value does not matter, I do not mean traditional stock valuations, of course price is the only real value at any given point in time, I will not go into the mathematics and economics behind that conjecture, but what value is important to something as capricious and unpredictable as bit coin is its intrinsic value, or what you get in a fire sale or complete meltdown, it has no intrinsic value it is a promise given by the Russian mafia that you can buy some cocaine or pornography on silk road or the dark web, think about it. You all fail to seem to understand that at least 50% of successful trading is risk management and money management.



The big Wall Street Banks that survived the GFC the best were not the best punters but the best risk managers, we will overlook the fed bailout, there is no one going to give you money if bitcoin goes down, no fed for you.


----------



## lone ranger

lone ranger said:


> The big Wall Street Banks that survived the GFC the best were not the best punters but the best risk managers, we will overlook the fed bailout, there is no one going to give you money if bitcoin goes down, no fed for you.



You do realise that fully legal banks are flat out all over the world developing crypto like currencies, with blockchain technology to release onto the market in the coming months or maybe years I do not know how long, they will swamp bitcoin they trade in trillions not billions like bitcoin, they are a hundred percent legal and you can use them to buy your bus ticket or your maserati, think about it, you might be absolutely sure now is the time to buy bitcoin, but when is it time to sell? The ASX is in the process of completely rewriting its CHESS clearing house exchange software with block chain technology it should be up and running in 2018, they predict.


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## skyQuake

lone ranger said:


> remember trading in things like bit coin is a zero sum gain for every winner there has to be a loser, can you guarantee you will win by holding on.



Perhaps you should go back and check that. Is it really 0 sum?

To be clear I am 100% in agreement this is a bubble and will end in tears sooner rather than later. 

But its a fantastic _trading_ instrument that has made any half decent trader many bags on the way up.


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## lone ranger

cutz said:


> OK, I get it, so you're selling naked puts and covered calls. How long have you been doing this ?



No i do not sell naked puts, nor only covered calls I have a portfolio of mixed positions according to market and sector dynamics, and never sell naked I sell defined risk I always know my maximum exposure and loss. I have been in the sharemarket since 1987, the collectibles market, illegal drug markets, and other shady as well as full legit trading markets. so have a pretty good idea about trading and value, I am a qualified Property valuer of both chattels as well as real property, an Econometrician, who studied operations research , forecasting time series and statistics quantitative methods and Corporate finance, and an ex CPA accountant and have seen more today's roosters become tomorrows feathers dusters than you can crow about. I have spent the last 3 years getting up to speed with predictive analytics and machine learning in R and python, Australian Universities are fairly behind the game by and large.I have not traded shares except as a hedge on option or futures positions since 2009. but Having said that I have devised a really good solid buy and hold portfolio strategy for mums and dads for their retirement, and will publish bits on blogs on the net, and publish in a kindle book fully, in the future. Options demand sophisticated mathematics not luck, and selling puts and covered calls is for people who are not well educated, they are really good solid investments however when managed properly, with good solid returns, I recommend the blue collar investor by Allan Elman, he exclusively trades this way. that is not my method.


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## tech/a

skyQuake said:


> Perhaps you should go back and check that. Is it really 0 sum?
> 
> To be clear I am 100% in agreement this is a bubble and will end in tears sooner rather than later.
> 
> But its a fantastic _trading_ instrument that has made any half decent trader many bags on the way up.




And can be shorted.

But hey why gamble!
The certain bubble should be the biggest opportunity 
You’ll see. 
Even Cassandra espouses this wisdom


----------



## lone ranger

skyQuake said:


> Perhaps you should go back and check that. Is it really 0 sum?
> 
> To be clear I am 100% in agreement this is a bubble and will end in tears sooner rather than later.
> 
> But its a fantastic _trading_ instrument that has made any half decent trader many bags on the way up.



It is a simple equation there is no derivatives market on bitcoins no way to hedge, for every buyer there has to be a seller, and every buyer has to sell to to realise his gain, so you see at any point in time it is either heads or tails who wins . Can you predict the outcome at any point in time with complete certainty with out a derivatives market to hedge your speculation, whether your position is heads or tails, if you will be on top. In all markets the real winners are the brokers or exchanges or market makers, in this case the Russian mafia, and scammers who mine and sell bit coins and the exchanges. You are in essence holding what they used to describe in securities law way way back as a 'chose in action' or a promise to pay, not a real physical asset.


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## tech/a

https://exante.eu/press/news/1202/

No derivatives?

https://www.investopedia.com/articles/investing/012215/how-invest-bitcoin-exchange-futures.asp

Get into it!


----------



## brty

I always have a bit of a chuckle when some 'lone ranger' come lately that suggests they have been hugely successful trading a lot of high brokerage positions in all types of strange derivatives (not spelt out exactly ever!), claims those here do not know what they are doing.

According to LR I'm doing everything wrong, trading the low end of the stockmarket for huge gains, with minimal brokerage to boot. 
I just wish the tax office would acknowledge I'm doing the wrong thing and stop asking for more each year in advance.
LR, you have no idea the experience you are trying to preach to. We all understand Bitcoin is a bubble, like most junior stocks, but that does not mean we can't make money there.

I personally have never seen a risk free investment you have insinuated, as timing the exit of any positions can have a negative effect, no matter how 'smart' you think the position is. 

I call BS on your claims, but please show one to prove me wrong.


----------



## lone ranger

tech/a said:


> And can be shorted.
> 
> But hey why gamble!
> The certain bubble should be the biggest opportunity
> You’ll see.
> Even Cassandra espouses this wisdom



Yes you may end up richer than Gordon gecko, but you fail to understand in bitcoin like all markets there is only a small fraction of big winners and by their psychological nature these speculators continue their pattern of behaviour, and the law of large numbers, states if they continue to play the odds get greater that at any point in time they will be losers too, read Nassim Nicholas Talebs, foooled by randomness, and the black swan, for explicit descriptions of such players. I did not make the comment about the cassandra complex, I had to look up what it was on wikipedia, it is neither here there to me, I am just trying to provide some rational guidance to those who are not knowledgeable about investment to stop them being lemings over the cliff blindly following others , I am not obsessive there are a lot of people smarter than me, or if not smart blessed with incredible good luck, I can explain this with rudimentary undergraduate statististical coin tossing experiments, but I would lose people, here people feel the thrill of being rich beyond there wildest fantasies, everyone who has had a sexual fantasy knows they rarely ever come true.


----------



## lone ranger

brty said:


> I always have a bit of a chuckle when some 'lone ranger' come lately that suggests they have been hugely successful trading a lot of high brokerage positions in all types of strange derivatives (not spelt out exactly ever!), claims those here do not know what they are doing.
> 
> According to LR I'm doing everything wrong, trading the low end of the stockmarket for huge gains, with minimal brokerage to boot.
> I just wish the tax office would acknowledge I'm doing the wrong thing and stop asking for more each year in advance.
> LR, you have no idea the experience you are trying to preach to. We all understand Bitcoin is a bubble, like most junior stocks, but that does not mean we can't make money there.
> 
> I personally have never seen a risk free investment you have insinuated, as timing the exit of any positions can have a negative effect, no matter how 'smart' you think the position is.
> 
> I call BS on your claims, but please show one to prove me wrong.



Feel free I am not trying to convince anyone about what I do or anything else I am not obsessive or bragging merely stating facts, I am not going to justify or prove anything to you . You don't give up the goose that lays the golden eggs to anyone, but by your bragging you have the goose by the neck by both hands, all the best. good luck sunshine may the force be with you, I am trying to protect people who may stumble on your comments and think it is as easy as sticking the pin on the tail of the donkey without a blindfold.


----------



## lone ranger

tech/a said:


> https://exante.eu/press/news/1202/
> 
> No derivatives?
> 
> https://www.investopedia.com/articles/investing/012215/how-invest-bitcoin-exchange-futures.asp
> 
> Get into it!



Futures are not a complete hedge vehicle, though granted they are a very good hedge for currency speculation , congratulations good luck, I have not looked up any of your links or any one else's , here I am not trying to preach to the converted as every atheist and skeptic knows you are never going to convince the pope god does not exist , as I have said below good luck ,and good fortune, may Zeus yahweh and shiva and the force be with you.I am here to provide a balanced opinion against one-eyed converts with blinkers on, to people whovisit this and need to seriously to weigh up the pros and cons before throwing money into something incredibly risky, like all fanatics you absolutely believe you are right, being a statistician I don't know what will happen, and I certainly don't claim to be absolutely right, or that how I trade is the best thing since sliced bread, but it works for me, I am not going to tell you how I do it, what sort of a fool do you think I am. Ed Thorp never told anyone how he became the worlds most successful gambler and investor, he only hinted and gave some examples, when he retired a few years back. By the way he was a UCLA math professor, who invented the black scholes formula before Black Scholes Merton were awarded the nobel prize for it ,he said he kept it secret and uses it the exact opposite to the way economists do. So calm down and relax, I am not a wealthy man and have not much to invest I live life to the fullest, love chess, play guitar and keyboards record music, help manage musicians love to computer program, love taichi and kung fu and aikido and japanese jujitsu and judo, and study and love philosophy and neuroscience and psychology and teach, I spend nearly every cent I have , as I have a number of congenital illnesses and have already lived past my life expectancy according to the actuarial mortality tables , so I ain't wasting time on fools.I am happy living in a small flat, driving a toyota yaris, and doing what I do, I do not dream of riches beyond imagination, do not want to be Gordon Gecko, and do not suffer from status anxiety or envy, but boy you have a bad case of schadenfreude. goodbye.


----------



## brty

lone ranger said:


> I am not going to justify or prove anything to you




Of course not, I never expected you to, they never do.

I have never claimed trading to be easy, just simple. There are always risks involved and these must be managed.
It is the same for bitcoin as for everything else.

You have claimed 
" I have devised a really good solid buy and hold portfolio strategy for mums and dads for their retirement"
plus...
" I make 30% return every 30-45 days with 80% likelihood of success, with just the promise of money , people pay me real cash straight into my broking account every 30 days for this"

Hence why I claimed BS, your answer...
" I am not trying to convince anyone about what I do or anything else I am not obsessive or bragging merely stating facts"

It certainly does not sound like it to me. 
On these forums a person builds credibility over time, not by making big statements over a couple of days.
I still call BS on your comments.


----------



## tech/a

Waste of breath brty

Cassandras think you SHOULD want what they THINK they have
The secret of everything.

Seriously putting a book out on Kindle----please.
You have the secret of everything and now your talking pennies.
Im with brty---fake Cassandra
*AH!* just noted we are taking a bashing from a self confessed (I'm not a wealthy man)
Who plays guitar and enjoys long walks along the beach.

No one's suggesting anyone put their house on Cryptos.
Its the next *REALLY* big thing AND its NOT going away---ignore it. Most people will.
Like you they are crippled by fear hence your option hedge trading methodology.
Works ----- but in the world of business---Vanilla.

Oh and for a fledgling Duck (Nee Gecko) can you just point out all the losers in this ZERO SUM game
on this chart for me please.
Just cant seem to find them?

Pretty well one way traffic.

Short it !---if its the biggest bubble since Tulips.

Personally I think its here to stay.
Crypto currency is here to stay.
Once Govs work out how to rape it.


----------



## qldfrog

galumay said:


> I guess you should think some more, you have cherry picked with hindsight. If you keeep gambling we know what happens eventually - you end up with no money.
> 
> I really wonder why we have gambling threads on what is purportedly an investing forum!



why would gambling end up losing your money? as opposed to the lottery/casino, no one is taking a 30% cut so what your loses are are what someone else win;
A bit like the ASX but without CEO paying his new lamborghini from your shares;
By many aspect, BTC is far less of a gamble than the ASX today!!!Oe an AUD bank account figures on your netbank screen
my opinion only, and not heavily into BTC or crypto


----------



## tech/a

Personally I like Ripple
It’s got a lot going for it 
Great technology and the instos read pretty good plus lots more easy to find
Have a read. 
It’s around $1

BTC 
Have a back log of new clients currently over a week to get ID cleared

So currently the duck has 10000
Plus other holdings with the geeks. 

Worst that can happen Zero
$5 happy
$50 very happy
$500 the entire duck clan is happy 
$1000 everyone at ASF is happy because the Ducks throwing one hell of a party!

Gambling ?
Recognising opportunity and doing something about it ?


Take your pick


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## skyQuake

lone ranger said:


> It is a simple equation there is no derivatives market on bitcoins no way to hedge, for every buyer there has to be a seller, and every buyer has to sell to to realise his gain, so you see at any point in time it is either heads or tails who wins .



Why would anyone need to hedge by doing anything other than selling the bitcoins they already own?



lone ranger said:


> Yes you may end up richer than Gordon gecko, but you fail to understand in bitcoin like all markets there is only a small fraction of big winners and by their psychological nature these speculators continue their pattern of behaviour, and the law of large numbers, states if they continue to play the odds get greater that at any point in time they will be losers too,



The vast majority of bitcoin players are vastly in profit. The Winklevoss twins made about a billion from bitcoins. Who lost that billion hmm?



> read Nassim Nicholas Talebs, foooled by randomness, and the black swan, for explicit descriptions of such players. I did not make the comment about the cassandra complex, I had to look up what it was on wikipedia, it is neither here there to me, I am just trying to provide some rational guidance to those who are not knowledgeable about investment to stop them being lemings over the cliff blindly following others , I am not obsessive there are a lot of people smarter than me, or if not smart blessed with incredible good luck, I can explain this with rudimentary undergraduate statististical coin tossing experiments, but I would lose people, here people feel the thrill of being rich beyond there wildest fantasies, everyone who has had a sexual fantasy knows they rarely ever come true.



Surprised you mention Taleb. 
Perhaps go back to the chapter on Green Lumber. And the Barbell investing strategy.


----------



## lone ranger

brty said:


> Of course not, I never expected you to, they never do.
> 
> I have never claimed trading to be easy, just simple. There are always risks involved and these must be managed.
> It is the same for bitcoin as for everything else.
> 
> You have claimed
> " I have devised a really good solid buy and hold portfolio strategy for mums and dads for their retirement"
> plus...
> " I make 30% return every 30-45 days with 80% likelihood of success, with just the promise of money , people pay me real cash straight into my broking account every 30 days for this"
> 
> Hence why I claimed BS, your answer...
> " I am not trying to convince anyone about what I do or anything else I am not obsessive or bragging merely stating facts"
> 
> It certainly does not sound like it to me.
> On these forums a person builds credibility over time, not by making big statements over a couple of days.
> I still call BS on your comments.



No it is not lies it is simply selling iron condors, ratio writes, calendar spreads , poor mans covered calls, vertical spreads, they are basic and as old as the hills, you show such huge ignorance of the market and trading generally people like you are exasperating and frankly I am not here to teach you how to trade go learn yourself, and it is futile to try and justify because you are so ignorant you don't understand simple things eg, shorting is not hedging it is simply plain vanilla trading as I pointed out earlier when I described simple trading as buying low selling high and selling high and buying low the opposite which is known as shorting, there you go know you know. shorting is only hedging when combined with derivatives, or synthetic derivatives like  tradeable bonds, also merely buying when combined  with derivatives can also be hedging. And as for your mad hasty google search to find bitcoin futures, to say nah nah nanah nah, I told you so, there is more than the mere existence of a future or option to make it an effective hedging device, such as liquidity, and hence the width of spreads and strikes, and whether they have enough delta gamma and vega to afford the necessary cover, for an effective hedge, I am not interested in finding out because I am not interested in bitcoin, I am here to protect people coming here finding misinformation in their madness of crowds and herd behavior that is happening, people like you bought a long time ago so you are happy to rope in as many suckers as you like as it steadily climbs towards boiling point You are playing the oldest snake oil con there is talk it up and get out. I am not here for credibility or for any other reason than to warn people, all your fellow traders on this site are technical junkies and are complete believers in this stuff, I have no truck with them their eyes are wide open and they are considered professional traders, good luck to them, I am glad they exist technical traders are noise traders without a majority of them on the stock market I could not make any money, may they go forth and multiply and never end like the Jesus fishes and loaves trick.


----------



## lone ranger

skyQuake said:


> Why would anyone need to hedge by doing anything other than selling the bitcoins they already own?
> 
> 
> The vast majority of bitcoin players are vastly in profit. The Winklevoss twins made about a billion from bitcoins. Who lost that billion hmm?
> 
> 
> Surprised you mention Taleb.
> Perhaps go back to the chapter on Green Lumber. And the Barbell investing strategy.



In your ignorance and selective referencing again you have overlooked and completely misunderstand the whole of the book.Taleb. Lemma 1. How people are fooled by randomness.
Trader A trades between periods n to n+1, his probability of success is 1 /N+n1 or 1/2 = 50%
which by chance is an awful lot of people are successful by chance and hence are fooled by randomness.
However in period 2 this diminishes , period 1 + period 2 = n1 + n2 = 1/2 = 50%
The probability of success after period 1 and period 2 = 0.5x 0.5 = 0.25 diminishing but there is still a lot of people successful a quarter. However after period 3= N2 +n3 = 1/2 = 50%
combined with period two = 0.5 x 0.25 = 12.5 or an eighth still quite a lot are successful by chance to prove you are not just lucky, but have skill, if you repeatedly on average get returns above the market average, when after so many periods the probability is less than .05 or .01 the scientific cut offs for confidence levels, and you have evidence to prove this is not chance, because the greater the number of coin tosses the greater the number of continuous lucky streaks even though the coin toss converges to exactly half the more a coin is tossed, now this is completely counter intuitive, as most statistics is, that is why it is shunned in favor of simple nonsense like looking at charts which are basically random according to a Mandelbrot fractal pattern. If you run a Monte Carlo simulation on a coin toss or an example like this you see that outliers occur no matter how unlikely, by complete chance and many are fooled by chance to believe they posses great skill. But when black Swan events hit the chaff are separated from the wheat, and only the skilled survive. You accuse me of lies I do not care one way or another but you can not prove to me your success is anything more than chance till a couple of disasters strike, or you are still making profits after about 25 years, at least triple your money, because anyone can meet the market average and inflation by no skill just buying and holding, the market rate is say 3% now you should do at least 5% a year and in 14 years you should have double your capital, by 25 years you should have almost tripled your capital. Now you have been convinced you are a genius because you have ridden the crest of two notorious bubbles that blind freddy can see, but that is not the point ,where will you be after 25 years with a few black swans thrown in ? Frankly I could not care less you are so cocky and arrogant, whatever , good luck, it is the suckers you are trying to rope in on your merry go round that I worry about I regret having put  some of my trading methods because you think I am trying to prove something or competing, I have no wish for anyone to use my trading methods or to buy any share or option I buy or sell, except out of mere coincidence and random chance and their own deliberate uninfluenced choice. I am not trying to muscle in and sell some snake oil and tell people its better than yours, in fact most people would lose money trading my way, because it is only low risk with years of knowledge experience and practical trading, you have had to have had skin in the game a long time to trade like I do, I don't wish it on anyone. But for me it's a winner.


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## lone ranger

lone ranger said:


> In your ignorance and selective referencing again you have overlooked and completely misunderstand the whole of the book.Taleb. Lemma 1. How people are fooled by randomness.
> Trader A trades between periods n to n+1, his probability of success is 1 /N+n1 or 1/2 = 50%
> which by chance is an awful lot of people are successful by chance and hence are fooled by randomness.
> However in period 2 this diminishes , period 1 + period 2 = n1 + n2 = 1/2 = 50%
> The probability of success after period 1 and period 2 = 0.5x 0.5 = 0.25 diminishing but there is still a lot of people successful a quarter. However after period 3= N2 +n3 = 1/2 = 50%
> combined with period two = 0.5 x 0.25 = 12.5 or an eighth still quite a lot are successful by chance to prove you are not just lucky, but have skill, if you repeatedly on average get returns above the market average, when after so many periods the probability is less than .05 or .01 the scientific cut offs for confidence levels, and you have evidence to prove this is not chance, because the greater the number of coin tosses the greater the number of continuous lucky streaks even though the coin toss converges to exactly half the more a coin is tossed, now this is completely counter intuitive, as most statistics is, that is why it is shunned in favor of simple nonsense like looking at charts which are basically random according to a Mandelbrot fractal pattern. If you run a Monte Carlo simulation on a coin toss or an example like this you see that outliers occur no matter how unlikely, by complete chance and many are fooled by chance to believe they posses great skill. But when black Swan events hit the chaff are separated from the wheat, and only the skilled survive. You accuse me of lies I do not care one way or another but you can not prove to me your success is anything more than chance till a couple of disasters strike, or you are still making profits after about 25 years, at least triple your money, because anyone can meet the market average and inflation by no skill just buying and holding, the market rate is say 3% now you should do at least 5% a year and in 14 years you should have double your capital, by 25 years you should have almost tripled your capital. Now you have been convinced you are a genius because you have ridden the crest of two notorious bubbles that blind freddy can see, but that is not the point ,where will you be after 25 years with a few black swans thrown in ? Frankly I could not care less you are so cocky and arrogant, whatever , good luck, it is the suckers you are trying to rope in on your merry go round that I worry about I regret having put  some of my trading methods because you think I am trying to prove something or competing, I have no wish for anyone to use my trading methods or to buy any share or option I buy or sell, except out of mere coincidence and random chance and their own deliberate uninfluenced choice. I am not trying to muscle in and sell some snake oil and tell people its better than yours, in fact most people would lose money trading my way, because it is only low risk with years of knowledge experience and practical trading, you have had to have had skin in the game a long time to trade like I do, I don't wish it on anyone. But for me it's a winner.



Why are you going on with all this dross about the winkelvoss twins and bitcoin buyers are all up so are Dow Jones buyers and S&P 500 buyers up hugely it is a bull run you have not been around long enough to even understand what you are saying, every new inventor in a market makes money, the money makers on the Chicago options exchange make the winklevosses look amateur, you just go on with straw man arguments and non sequiturs, Just complete nonsense. You are like a small boy so excited by bitcoin you are wetting your pants. as they say its just another one , just like the other one, I have seen them all before , nothing special here that has not happened since 1987. Block chain is new and a new brilliant technology, but so are dozens of other software innovations in the last few years.


----------



## tech/a

The ignorant and uninformed resort to personal attack

It’s all they can muster
You’ve not left a single poster with a view even slightly at odds with yours off your list 

Water off a ducks back


----------



## notting

LR aside.
I've only started arching up on bitcoin and co short over the last week or so as I see the shift and parabolic nature turning on the *red light*.  As well as the brokers like IB and so on getting access and providing shorting opportunities.  It is shortable now and it had the biggest fall last night that would have been far far worse as it  tripped the wires 




> *The Cboe bitcoin futures then fell 10 percent, briefly triggering a price halt, and settled more than 5 percent lower in their worst trading day since the launch. The futures had soared nearly 20 percent in their first day of trading. They were trading 7.5 percent higher at $18,060 late Friday morning.*




I tend to agree with ducky on Ripple, being a more stable and possibly valuable product that may replace 'swift' that the banks have been using for decades.  However it's not a store of value and I wouldn't be buying it here.  I'd wait for the dot com like crash that may have started last night to settle and base then buy it when all the news papers and talking heads are shaking their heads at all the fools who bought in the last blast.

https://www.cnbc.com/video/2017/12/13/jeffrey-gundlachs-view-on-bitcoin.html


----------



## skyQuake

lone ranger said:


> In your ignorance and selective referencing again you have overlooked and completely misunderstand the whole of the book.Taleb. Lemma 1. How people are fooled by randomness.
> Trader A trades between periods n to n+1, his probability of success is 1 /N+n1 or 1/2 = 50%
> which by chance is an awful lot of people are successful by chance and hence are fooled by randomness.




You've missed the point. You dont even need to have _any_ skill to make significant money in a positive sum boom like Bitcoin.



> However in period 2 this diminishes , period 1 + period 2 = n1 + n2 = 1/2 = 50%
> The probability of success after period 1 and period 2 = 0.5x 0.5 = 0.25 diminishing but there is still a lot of people successful a quarter. However after period 3= N2 +n3 = 1/2 = 50%
> combined with period two = 0.5 x 0.25 = 12.5 or an eighth still quite a lot are successful by chance to prove you are not just lucky, but have skill, if you repeatedly on average get returns above the market average, when after so many periods the probability is less than .05 or .01 the scientific cut offs for confidence levels, and you have evidence to prove this is not chance, because the greater the number of coin tosses the greater the number of continuous lucky streaks even though the coin toss converges to exactly half the more a coin is tossed, now this is completely counter intuitive, as most statistics is, that is why it is shunned in favor of simple nonsense like looking at charts which are basically random according to a Mandelbrot fractal pattern.



The incorrect assumption here is that the instrument in question is 0 sum. Try again with an hypothetical where the asset goes up in leaps and bounds, and players can't short the insturment.



> If you run a Monte Carlo simulation on a coin toss or an example like this you see that outliers occur no matter how unlikely...



*What if its not a fair coin?*
The real black swan here is on the UPSIDE which most people have completely missed. Sure it can drop 75% in a day, which would not be too surprising given the amount of speculative frenzy.
All it takes is a bid of rudimentary position sizing to negate this risk. Once again I refer to the barbell strategy.



lone ranger said:


> Why are you going on with all this dross about the winkelvoss twins and bitcoin buyers are all up so are Dow Jones buyers and S&P 500 buyers up hugely it is a bull run you have not been around long enough to even understand what you are saying, every new inventor in a market makes money, the money makers on the Chicago options exchange make the winklevosses look amateur, you just go on with straw man arguments and non sequiturs, Just complete nonsense. You are like a small boy so excited by bitcoin you are wetting your pants. as they say its just another one , just like the other one, I have seen them all before , nothing special here that has not happened since 1987. Block chain is new and a new brilliant technology, but so are dozens of other software innovations in the last few years.



If you don't know what is zero sum and what isn't just say so.


----------



## notting

Get in on this one early guys, it's quite new so has heaps to go!! 
https://www.theverge.com/2017/12/13/16754266/cryptokitties-ethereum-ether-game-cats


----------



## kid hustlr

Getting back in track

Having not been around long enough to genuinely experience proper bull and bear runs I'm interested as to where this ends. I feel generally that bull runs seem to last far longer than I expect which makes me feel there may be more to come? Price action still looks bullish to me also.

Noting the above the more I see threads about this stuff, media hype, my dad talking about, etc it I feel as though it could be nearing a pinch point? I do believe when it goes it will go v quickly.

Any thoughts or signs to look for from those who have seen this before?


----------



## SuperGlue

skyQuake said:


> Anyone had any luck setting up a fundable acct in one of the big US exchanges?




In todays ABC News
"Coinbase is going to add altcoins, which experts say will make life easier for Aussie investors"

Alex Saunders gives a few tips on which exchange to use on his video clip. 
Coinbase, sell not supported for Aussies.

http://www.abc.net.au/news/2017-12-...-add-altcoins-to-its-platform-bitcoin/9261046


----------



## brty

lone ranger said:


> No it is not lies it is simply selling iron condors, ratio writes, calendar spreads , poor mans covered calls, vertical spreads, they are basic and as old as the hills, you show such huge ignorance of the market and trading generally people like you are exasperating and frankly I am not here to teach you how to trade go learn yourself, and it is futile to try and justify because you are so ignorant you don't understand simple things eg,




LOL!!
brokerage and spreads galore, and you think that is good. LOL.

On the topic for a change, my SIL that has not a clue about markets asked me about Bitcoin today. This is a red flag for me as the only other investment she has ever made was buying Telstra at $9 totally against my advice, because her best friend told her to.
When the mania has reached the level of non investing people, there are not many suckers left.

kid hustlr, in the final run up of the gold and silver boom of Jan 1980, the TV news was full of people lined up SELLING gold and silver to different companies buying rings, coins etc. While the stories showed the people in the crowds lined up SELLING, they were actually all about some young people that had made fortunes (on paper) buying gold and silver futures.
I always found that fascinating how many people got the end of that mania correct, but the stories were about the others.


----------



## KnowThePast

I am with tech on this one - I bought a small position a few weeks back and trim it down regularly as the price goes up. No need to time the collapse in my case - the gamble was whether the collapse will be in the next few weeks.

brty, funny you mentioned a selling signal when general public start talking about it. This isn't quite the same though. Shares get traded by institutions, then general public takes an interest in them. With cryptos, it was the public and enthusiasts that started it. To me, the question is, if/when bigger funds will start investing in it. Should they do so, demand will increase massively (and probably accelerate the bursting of the bubble).


----------



## Smurf1976

I'm in the middle.

Yes I think there's a bubble which will eventually burst. Blockchain is valid certainly but I don't see how Bitcoin itself is worth the present price.

But I do think it's got a lot further to go in terms of absolute prices expressed in USD or other currencies. USD 50,000 probably, USD 100,000 possibly.

If it does go seriously high then any bust will have broader implications I expect. At USD 100,000 it would be worth about the same as all the oil used worldwide over 12 months and far more than any listed company anywhere. That's serious money by any measure such that any crash from that point would likely have broader implications.


----------



## lusk

KnowThePast said:


> brty, funny you mentioned a selling signal when general public start talking about it. This isn't quite the same though. Shares get traded by institutions, then general public takes an interest in them. With cryptos, it was the public and enthusiasts that started it. To me, the question is, if/when bigger funds will start investing in it. Should they do so, demand will increase massively (and probably accelerate the bursting of the bubble).




Yeah this time its different  

I am going to call the top, mate just told me he was down the pub and friends were all talking about bitcoin etc and providing their investing advice. Surely that's a contrarian indicator.


----------



## tech/a

I'm sure it happened with the Industrial Revolution.

What Horses taken over by cars---Pffft
Ships taken over by Planes---yeh right.
Wars fought from Consoles---dreaming

Apple/Microsoft/Google/Facebook all flash in the pans destined for Huge falls.
DNA/Clouds---nothing here--- 

Crypto currencies people are talking ----Must be a top.
Crypto currencies people are talking----The masses are awakening.

10 yrs on ---Cash/Credit cards--remember them.


----------



## notting

tech/a said:


> What Horses taken over by cars---Pffft
> Ships taken over by Planes---yeh right.
> Wars fought from Consoles---dreaming




Your burning straw men.
No one, with a half a brain, is arguing about the functionality or future of block chain.
There are infinite products that could be floated into this environment until it becomes regulated.
There for the perceived supply constraints arn't!!!


----------



## tech/a

Worth a read even if your only slightly interested
Its in PDF form

https://www.jbs.cam.ac.uk/fileadmin...-global-cryptocurrency-benchmarking-study.pdf


----------



## lusk

tech/a said:


> I'm sure it happened with the Industrial Revolution.
> 
> What Horses taken over by cars---Pffft
> Ships taken over by Planes---yeh right.
> Wars fought from Consoles---dreaming
> 
> Apple/Microsoft/Google/Facebook all flash in the pans destined for Huge falls.
> DNA/Clouds---nothing here---
> 
> Crypto currencies people are talking ----Must be a top.
> Crypto currencies people are talking----The masses are awakening.
> 
> 10 yrs on ---Cash/Credit cards--remember them.




Sounds like your trying to convince yourself, there were many other flash in the pans that failed.

There is no doubt block chain will be around but it shouldn't be something that everybody bids on and its value increases, its meant to be a medium of exchange.

Up 2000% in a year, 20 year olds making 100k that are smart investors have heard it all. This is not going to end well, they are drawing everybody in like moths to a flame.


----------



## tech/a

Seriously $10K on an opportunity---I need to convince myself!

If it falls to zero no biggy.

A 20 yr old who picks up $100k might be as Dumb as a Duck
But he's got $100k he didn't have before. Smart 20 yr old.


----------



## cutz

lusk said:


> Up 2000% in a year, 20 year olds making 100k that are smart investors have heard it all. This is not going to end well, they are drawing everybody in like moths to a flame.




If you are convinced about this short it ! Could be the trade of the decade ! 

A couple of options are now available.


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## CanOz

There's always a place for a speculative in a diverse asset portfolio....just adjust it's weighting to reflect the risk of total loss


----------



## tech/a

Yep

I pulled $7300 out of the Melbourne Cup
4 yrs ago
Given $1000 back
Took $7880 out of a pokie a month ago
Given a $150 back

Sound investment?
Of course not 
Stupid investment 
Hell yes

Will I keep doing it 
Sure 

Packer played poker with millions
Sound investment—- of course not

Nothing wrong with a quantified gamble now and again


----------



## notting

*Bitcoin madness: Small-cap Longfin soars 2,000% after acquiring blockchain company*

Longfin rose 230 percent Friday and was up more than fivefold at one point Monday, which brought its two-day surge to more than 2,000 percent.
The small-cap financial technology company said it was buying a blockchain company, Ziddu.com, on Friday.
The company had its initial public offering on Nasdaq just last week.
Meridian Enterprises, which sold Ziddu to Longfin, is a private Singapore company that is 95 percent owned by Longfin's CEO and chairman Venkat Meenavalli.

*The insane price surge noted by  Bitcoins cofounder and CTO, Emil Oldenburg, has caused him to be extremely skeptical of bitcoin’s future.
“I would say an investment in bitcoin is right now the riskiest investment you can make. There’s an extremely high risk,” *

You'd imagine he probably knows what he is talking about


----------



## tech/a

He suffers from fear of loss just like you and I

How much do you need?

Why didn’t he short it he could certainly afford to

His expertise may not be timing the irrational or rational exuberance
Of the crypto currency markets.
He’s got just as much chance of being wrong than right.
I doubt he will leave the crypto market entirely.

Murdoch just sold Fox off to Disney
Do you think he knows something
Does Disney know something.


----------



## WesternTaipan

notting said:


> *Bitcoin madness: *
> <SNIP>
> *“I would say an investment in bitcoin is right now the riskiest investment you can make. There’s an extremely high risk,” *
> 
> You'd imagine he probably knows what he is talking about




"right now" ? Really?

Bitcoin never was, or will ever be, or is now, anymore or less riskier than *the riskiest investment you can make*. Its a Ponzi scheme with global reach that makes Bernard Madoff's $64.8 billion fraud look like small change. Instead of deceiving mere 5000 clients, Bitcoin has deceived millions of clients, and in spite of the clear warnings, no country has been able to move against Bitcoin because it operates outside the legal jurisdiction of any single country.

The deception is hidden in novelty of the technology, which lures investors into a false sense of trust. The focus on the strength of the cryptography distracts the investor from the Bitcoin having a fixed net value of absolute zero. Unlike conventional currencies that are based on the tangible assets of the country that owns it, Bitcoin is not underwritten by any assets whatsoever.

How is that possible?

The answer is that the "miners", who invest in the hardware necessary to generate the hash codes required for each Bitcoin transaction, participate in a winner takes all lottery for the next transaction that is paid in - you guessed it - Bitcoin. This creates an impression of a tangible asset underpinning Bitcoin, but the net value of this asset is negative, because the majority of miners are losing money (not being paid) and when they are paid it is in a massively overvalued currency. And because unsuccessful miners operate as individuals they never get to see mining for the pyramid scheme it is, proping up the ponzi scheme that is Bitcoin. And all other cryptocurrencies operate the same way.

Bitcoin has a long way to go before it exhausts the pool of 7billion potential suckers who cant recognise a ponzi scheme even when its right there hiding in plain sight.

It is believed Madoff ran his scheme for 30 years. The only thing keeping Bitcoin up is its ability to find more and more people stupid enough to invest in it. If you are so stupid as to knowingly invest in a pozi scheme, then you are going to be just as stupid in missing the point at which you should have sold it all - just before the whole scam bursts.

Crypto-currencies must be pegged to a tangible asset by linking it (eg) to an actual country where it can be regulated. Otherwise its fraud simple.


----------



## Triple B

Don't " invest "" in bitcoin   ,Trade it.
Get in, take profit get out. Get in , take profit  get out...........
We know its a bubble ,but we don't know when it will pop.
If Governments decide that bitcoins etc can become taxable, traceable, registered with tax office etc
the bubble may pop then....... if they decide its illegal and somehow legislate it then POP
Where is The Lone Ranger.?.. I want more from possibly the best trader/investor in history . 80% win and 30% profits per month with no risk .......awesome
I guess the 20% losers aren't classed as "risk"
I guess you do this for the social aspets....from post 21
"and I drive uber about 5 hours a day for about 3 or 4 days a week,"


----------



## cutz

Triple B said:


> Where is The Lone Ranger.?.. I want more from possibly the best trader/investor in history . 80% win and 30% profits per month with no risk .......awesome



Iron flys/condors are difficult to tame in a slow grind bull market. 80% win / 30% per month sounds like a load of baloney.


----------



## notting

I'm amazed.  

Here's another one


*Litecoin founder Charlie Lee says he’s sold all his holdings in the cryptocurrency*

Charlie Lee, who founded litecoin in 2011, "sold and donated" all of his litecoin tokens over the past few days.
The litecoin creator said there was a "conflict of interest" with him holding litecoin.
The fraud is over!


----------



## noirua

Blockchain - Gold Backed Crypto Currency - Mastercard -  Visa

- Http://www.goldbloc.com - Https://contrarianinvestor.net/posts/2017/12/13/will-lionsgold-exploit-the-blockchain-revolution

GOLDBLOC: Https://twitter.com/hashtag/Goldbloc?src=hash


----------



## notting

Fake News


----------



## notting

*Now for the computer science valid reality check* 

-* the Blockchain flaw married to Bitcoin* that cannot be resolved, as Bitcoin's already out there.
Bitcoin *will not be the great cripto currency of the future* as pinpointed by a smart geek from google to the true believer -



This isn't even one of the Communist Party funded miners.  Imagine how big the State one is!!! and how much of that 100% of bitcoin the Chines already own and are not telling!  
So they can manipulate, when they want to make a buck like, at Christmas time when most  of the world is not concentrating or in the mood to report or remember it.  Like, I don't know - *last nights 40% plunge after massive  volume pick up?!!* 
Perhaps they already, recently, crossed the 51% holding.  *
There is no way of knowing!! *


----------



## tech/a

Haha
The power of Fear
Blockchains are being used in all sorts of applications
There are many crypto currencies.

If you do some research yourself you’ll find  their design is
To eliminate third parties like Govt regulation ( GFC )
Poor Economic Management —— Hyper inflation your money
Becomes worthless due to Govt policies 

Banks and their power and regulation ( Greece ) banks 
Close their doors freeze YOUR funds 

Crypto is out of the bag 
It wont be going back.

We are going to see a change in the way we do business as big as
The change from Batering and trading to money as we now know it.

If you don’t think Google has an agenda——
The biggest change in Economics that we will all see in our lifetimes.


----------



## notting

tech/a said:


> Haha
> The power of Fear
> Blockchains are being used in all sorts of applications
> There are many crypto currencies.
> 
> If you do some research yourself you’ll find  their design is
> To eliminate third parties like Govt regulation ( GFC )
> Poor Economic Management —— Hyper inflation your money
> Becomes worthless due to Govt policies
> 
> Banks and their power and regulation ( Greece ) banks
> Close their doors freeze YOUR funds
> 
> Crypto is out of the bag
> It wont be going back.
> 
> We are going to see a change in the way we do business as big as
> The change from Batering and trading to money as we now know it.
> 
> If you don’t think Google has an agenda——
> The biggest change in Economics that we will all see in our lifetimes.





You totaly missed the point. I was talking about BITCOINs blockchain. No fear my dear!!!
Just significant shorting profits arleady bagged and greater opportunities still there. The others are similar, so far (not all of em) - cant be bothered.
The agenda of the Google geek was that 'he^ could no longer mine, it was more a personal thing. There was 'no gotcha' display.  I put together the consequence.
Like I have pointed out before the IMF will and is going to develop its own etc.


----------



## notting

The other telling thing you missed, Ducky, is the fact that the Chines are cashing out a significant amount of BITCOINs whilst they accumulate, a bit like constantly filling a bucket with a hole in it but outpacing the leak.
Why would they do that do you think?
To state the obvious - because they know it will eventually fail and will end up worthless so they have to make the money on the run.
The art now is to keep the game going and appreciating as long as possible.
It's notable that Ripple inventors have maintained more than 50%.


----------



## tech/a

Plenty could have if 5hey were quick made a motza short
Plenty if they had the resources and the ability
Could have made a packet long.

There are still the three schools.
Have a great Xmas everyone


----------



## Smurf1976

Blockchain = valuable, there seems little doubt about that.  

But as for Bitcoin well I see it as much like those early internet companies whose stock price went to the moon but ended up worthless.

The internet was valuable but specialist companies selling dog food online sure weren’t.

Or you could say that shares as such are a valuable concept but shares in a company with no assets or ongoing business sure aren’t.

Once someone comes up with a relatively stable crypto currency and/or one that’s backed by something tangible or at least a central bank then that’s it for Bitcoin I expect.

In the meantime enjoy the ride. It’s an opportunity for speculation but it’s not a long term investment or sensible means of exchange for legitimate transactions in my view.


----------



## tech/a

Tangible
What is that?

What is the intrinsic value of a $100 note 
Who determines the price of gold? 

Who guarantees the price of both?

After 2009 what is the backing of a bank work.

The whole idea of Crypto Currencies is to TAKE AWAY the
Need for Govt or Bank backing.


----------



## InsvestoBoy

I've been following cryptocurrency since the day Bitcoin was released to the internet in August 2008.

I thought it was dumb then and still think it's dumb now. Obviously, I'm dumb in the sense that I could have made a lot of money over that time, but I don't think that makes me wrong, just dumb.

I have dedicated the last 15 years of my life to a deep understanding of technology, especially distributed systems like Tor, BitTorrent, Bitcoin and many others. Most people who say what Bitcoin (and other cryptocurrencies like Ethereum, or whatever) will do, really have no understanding at all of the underlying technology and that paradoxically even applies to a lot of people who work in IT. 

I can't help but laugh when people who have no real understanding of the underlying technology, or economics, say why they think Bitcoin will replace USD, or why Ethereum will replace Facebook.

This is a good slideshow which provides a very good economic counterpoint to most of the common Bitcoin proponents comments, worth a read:

http://www.interfluidity.com/uploads/2017/10/Fiat-Is-Effective-Minitalk-light-edit-to-share.pdf


----------



## CanOz

Dead cat bounce over?


----------



## DaveDaGr8

tech/a said:


> Tangible
> What is that?
> 
> What is the intrinsic value of a $100 note
> Who determines the price of gold?
> 
> Who guarantees the price of both?
> 
> After 2009 what is the backing of a bank work.
> 
> The whole idea of Crypto Currencies is to TAKE AWAY the
> Need for Govt or Bank backing.




$100 is worth 33 loaves of bread, has been for the last few years and i suspect this year and next year, every day i walk into the supermarket it will still be worth 33 loaves of bread.

Who guarantees this price ? The people. If one day my brand is only worth 10 loaves of bread, then i'll buy homebrand.

Today 1 bitcoin is worth 4487 loaves of bread, tomorrow ???. The people can't regulate this price, nor can the governments, business etc because nothing really is traded, just bitcoin itself.

One day crypto coins will become self regulating in such a way, but not without a lot of pain first. The biggest mistake was using them as an investment tool rather than a transaction tool.

Currency is a medium to buy and sell goods and NOT a medium to trade and make money off


----------



## notting

CanOz said:


> Dead cat bounce over?



After yesterdays recovery I'm thinking, they be taking advantage of low volume to ramp down, then buy back up when volume and system selling starts to kick in.
Must admit  I do like the fact that it really never closes. I might just trade all day Christmas day to finally take revenge on all those stupid holidays we've had to endure over the decades.
Makes it a little tough for IB and co to close for maintenance on the weekend and such or match up the after hours trades when they get back to it.  Guess they can still zero sum it all even with the volatility eventually


----------



## tech/a

DaveDaGr8 said:


> $100 is worth 33 loaves of bread, has been for the last few years and i suspect this year and next year, every day i walk into the supermarket it will still be worth 33 loaves of bread.




Intrinsic value



> Who guarantees this price ? The people. If one day my brand is only worth 10 loaves of bread, then i'll buy homebrand.




Not even close.




> Today 1 bitcoin is worth 4487 loaves of bread, tomorrow ???. The people can't regulate this price, nor can the governments, business etc because nothing really is traded, just bitcoin itself.




Who other than the people regulate the price?



> One day crypto coins will become self regulating in such a way, but not without a lot of pain first. The biggest mistake was using them as an investment tool rather than a transaction tool.




It’s a choice not the purpose. Who has made a “ mistake “



> Currency is a medium to buy and sell goods and NOT a medium to trade and make money off




You’d better tell banks and governments.


----------



## notting

tech/a said:


> Who other than the people regulate the price?




The biggest machine that owns the 51% steak.

*Decentralized blockchain, especially with regard to Bitcoin, is an urban myth. *
Assume Bitcoin is already controlled by the mega mine that has been running for years, whilst most others have folded.
Due to Bitcoins lack of regulation, accountability and more than 51% ownership to 'the mine that won,' that owner can also buy and sell to themselves, to manipulate the technicals in what ever way they want, create what ever perfect looking entry points and support levels they want, and break it when they want to draw people like yourself in and out, when they want.


----------



## tech/a

Rubbish

People and institutions who buy Bitcoin determine price

Tell me how did they move price from
1c to $20000
Making and owning more bitcoins than anyone else?
How’s that work?

Bunker Hunt tried that with Silver
That didn’t end well!


----------



## notting

tech/a said:


> Rubbish
> 
> People and institutions who buy Bitcoin determine price
> Tell me how did they move price from
> 1c to $20000
> Making and owning more bitcoins than anyone else?
> How’s that work?




They accumulated it, they didn't own it from the start or manipulate it from the start.
There are plenty of people involved in the price movements, they just don't have the final say.  It doesn't need to be manipulated all the time, people take care of that too.


----------



## tech/a

If that’s the case they want the highest price possible
They would just slowly sell


----------



## notting

tech/a said:


> If that’s the case they want the highest price possible
> They would just slowly sell



That's exactly what they do especially against the mining.  They sell slowly on market.


----------



## tech/a

So how is this a problem for me owning bitcoins?


----------



## notting

tech/a said:


> So how is this a problem for me owning bitcoins?



It's not a problem until all 'the people' realize it's not the financial eutopia they were all dreaming it was and don't want to have anything more to do with it because it is regulated by thieves.


----------



## tech/a

Really they take part in it everyday now!
In most things not related to Bitcoin.


----------



## notting

If your talking about other crypto's they are still largely 'following the trend' that is the illusion of Bitcoin for all.


----------



## DaveDaGr8

tech/a said:


> Intrinsic value
> 
> 
> 
> Not even close.
> 
> 
> 
> 
> Who other than the people regulate the price?
> 
> 
> 
> It’s a choice not the purpose. Who has made a “ mistake “
> 
> 
> 
> You’d better tell banks and governments.




Um ok ?????     I give up ... enlighten me.


----------



## tech/a

Probably a few bucks for the plastic paper
 Counter fitter would pay more 
But it’s not $100


----------



## galumay

I understand why traders like the Duck see cryptos as a potential commodity for making money, anything with so much volatility must offer opportunity for those so inclined. 

From a neutral viewpoint, ( i am not a trader and I have no interest in investing in cryptos or blockchain), the whole thing looks like a massive ponzi scheme that attracted libertarians, the disenfranchised and conspiracy theorists initially and then the ignorant 'mums & dads' by FOMO.

Part of the brilliance of the ponzi scheme was linking fairy money (cryptos) to the concept of blockchain, this meant that all the time, effort, hardware costs, energy costs and so on associated with maintaining an exponentially growing, publicly distributed ledger, (block chain); was paid for with fairy money. The utility of the fairy money with the dark web, drugs, criminals etc helped push the price up and then the FOMO did the rest.

At the same time the almost total lack of understanding of what blockchain technology actually is and what its actually suitable for meant that as it became increasingly hyped as the new tech, the internet 2.0, something the cool people got, something old people could never understand, businesses started looking for ways to integrate blockchain tech into their businesses.

The problem is its actually often a worse and less practical solution than whatever it replaces, ledgers, spreadsheets, databases etc, but the FOMO in the corporate world was too strong for many to resist and so enormous amounts of money, time, energy and effort are being applied to implementing something that is largely inappropriate.

I just read this quote on twitter from Ben Hamner (CTO at Kaggle)

_"The blockchain movement is 100x worse than the NoSQL movement. Every time I see a new blockchain idea I ask “would a relational DB be unambiguously better in every regard here?” (generating page views expected). 99% of the time the answer’s yes"_

Yes, there will be instances where blockchain tech makes sense, a lot of it wont be public blockchain though, and so wont need to be linked to fairy money. Yes, there will be cryptos in the future, but its most likely that the disruption of cryptos will simply lead to less 'ticket clipping' in the finance world, faster transactions, better FX rates, more security around online transactions - all still in existing fiat currency. Cryptos in some form will remain a substitute for cash in the dark web, criminal and underworld.


----------



## tech/a

This fairy money

Where is it?

Try buying a bit coin
If you dont mine it you’ll have to
Use money.
Or convert for gold at X value .

Instos are they using this fairy money?

Just as a $1 has a value or a bank note has a value so does crypto currency
Bitcoin $17-22,000 each Ripple $1.37 each
I can buy other cryptos with my spread or my cash.


----------



## galumay

tech/a said:


> Just as a $1 has a value or a bank note has a value so does crypto currency
> Bitcoin $17-22,000 each Ripple $1.37 each




No, $1 has a value, cryptos have a price. Not quite the same thing! 

Read some of the links people have posted tech/a, there are some pretty good explanations. The one Insvesto boy posted is very good.


----------



## tech/a

If I can buy something with Crypto 
Then it has a value.

Again 
There are 3 schools 
Each have their argument

I don’t have to convince you
Not you I 
But I do enjoy learning and the discussion 
It’s an important topic I think as it will be featuring in our lives in someway going forward


----------



## Wyatt

This whole Bitcoin/crypto currency thing is some crazy ****!

Spoke to a old friend today as you do on this day, who bought 10 bitcoins for 100 bucks each a few years back, anyway he still has most of them and other currencies and he was almost manic in his support for the whole crypto thing. He has no plans to sell at all as he believes this thing has just started, When I asked him how his mental state would be if it did tank, he replied that, as he had very little (original) skin in the game, it was all or nothing for him, well, actually, he just could not see the nothing side of the ledger.

Maybe this has been an opportunity lost for most of us. If it moves, buy it usually works, so have we been caught asleep at the wheel? But do not worry I won't be going all in anytime soon.
At the very minimum it will be a wild ride to observe from the sidelines, just hoping it doesn't derail other markets if /when it crashes.
Although maybe a small punt of 1-2K on Litecoin, whatever that is, may be in order so I can buy that Tesla Roadster when they become available in 2020


----------



## InsvestoBoy

tech/a said:


> If I can buy something with Crypto
> Then it has a value.




Please don't call it crypto. People who know anything about encryption technology cringe every time "cryptocurrency" gets abbreviated like that.

You *can't* buy anything with cryptocurrency.

It's like you're saying "if I can buy something with a kilo of bacon then it has a value". No. What actually happened is you paid legal tender to buy some bacon at the shop or you slaughtered a piglet you have been feeding for the last year. Maybe after that the price of bacon went up because of a swine flu scare. Now you're telling me bacon is the currency of the future.

Nobody accepts a kilo of bacon as legal tender or means of settlement. You can sell the kilo of bacon for base money (cash) or claims on base money (bank deposits, credit, etc) and buy something with that.

Who on earth would buy or sell anything with cryptocurrencies, which are the most volatile asset class in the world today?

Why would I pay you 1 Ripple for a coffee today if I have no way to know whether or not that Ripple might be worth 5000 coffees tomorrow?

Why would you accept a payment of 1BTC for a car today if that BTC might be worth half of its currency value tomorrow?


----------



## CanOz

I’m actually stunned, jaw dropping stunned that tech is on the other side of this discussion. It’s like I’ve been teleported to some other world where black is white.....scary stuff.


----------



## tech/a

For people who are supposedly well informed.

It’s Xmas 
But to say you can’t buy anything with Cryptocurrency seriously??

I’m sure people would accept my bacon
For payment if they needed bacon

Just as mining gold or silver or coal or bitcoin will also allow me to purchase a lot of things

Can 
I’m very used to being tha black duck
It’s served me well.

Anyone can be average.
It appears I’m way outside of mainstream thinking.
Fantastic less of us out here.


----------



## notting

I thought Ducks didn't live long enough to get alzheimer's
Then again he's no ordinary Duck
Maybe it's a kind of denial coupled with stress thing
There are people who eat duck for Christmas.

Not surprised that they have all been pushed down with and into low volume


----------



## CanOz

I saw duck in Coles yesty and thought "who eats duck for Christmas?".  I guess someone does, definitely on the menu for new years apparently...


----------



## tech/a

For deep thinkers
Your seemingly falling into the trap of
Fear.

The duck has less than a few %. Of net wealth at risk.
Thanks for the warning

Why do you feel compelled to present little 
In an effort to convince myself and everyone else that I’m a Moron

I know!

Exciting times

I’ll put together a post after Xmas with all the positives I see .
Not to convince anyone but to add something of interest to the sky is falling barrage
Of posts 

Some may find it as compelling as I do.

Back to feasting drinking sleeping and 
Getting those damn kids out!
For a DUCK!!


----------



## kid hustlr

Yes let's keep it in perspective. Tech probably has less than 0.5% of wealth invested. 

It's all relative


----------



## skyQuake

tech/a has bought a proverbial lottery ticket. He has judged that there is non-zero probability that one of the cryptocurrencies he's bought has a chance to be a 10x, 100x or even 1000x+
If he's wrong he takes a small hit and moves on. If he's right he gets a large payoff
Risk/reward is extremely skewed. What more can you ask for?


----------



## InsvestoBoy

It's a free country, everyone should be free to speculate with their money as they see fit and if you got rich off cryptocurrency, I wish you the best (so long as you pay your taxes).

I'm not here trying to say what people should or shouldn't do.

But if you say "cryptocurrency is revolutionary because of X" or "cryptocurrency is worth Y because of Z" and X or Y or Z is wrong or based on a fallacy or an outright lie on a public forum thread about a topic, getting called out by people who know what they are talking about is a reasonable expectation.

In the year 1989 rational people were saying that Japanese stocks were in a bubble and other people were saying "there are 3 schools of thought about Japanese stocks and each has its own argument".

In the year 1999 rational people were saying that tech stocks were in a bubble and other people were saying "there are 3 schools of thought about tech stocks and each has its own argument".

In the year 2007 rational people were saying the global financial system was in a bubble and other people were saying "there are 3 schools of thought about the global financial system and each has its own argument".

*We should already know by now that people who are trying to talk rationally about facts aren't wrong just because the price of something appreciated exponentially.*

tech/a is saying that there when it comes to cryptocurrencies "there are 3 schools of thought about it and each has their own argument". No. In the same discussion that has been happening on internet forums for the last 9.5 years since Satoshi Nakomoto released his Bitcoin whitepaper, there have been some rational people who understand the underlying premise and technology and other people who are making up or repeating tropes that rationalise their speculation.


----------



## notting

I don't care if Ducky he has his entire nest of eggs on it.



tech/a said:


> Your seemingly falling into the trap of
> Fear.




Who's afraid?  It's the greatest short on earth!
That's all. - and we're so excited we can't stop talking about it!
So stop with the lecturing on tatts tickets, punting and stuff my cat understood about 75 years ago.
It's much funnier when you talk about the merits of Bitcoin.


----------



## Value Hunter

Let's just be clear on this, at the moment "cryptocurrecies" actually cannot yet be considered as currency because nobody is pricing anything in them yet. Even retailers that accept Bitcoin as payment actually price their goods in currencies such as USD, AUD, EUR, etc and if you want to pay in Bitcoin the bitcoin price fluctuates minute to minute. Most of these retailers actually have a mechanism to exchange the Bitcoin, etc as soon as they receive it and have no intention to own it.


----------



## skyQuake

Everything on BTC Markets currently trading at about a 5%+ discount to coinspot prices.
Can transfer some across for an arb.
Do note that BTC transfers from BTCMarkets takes ages, litecoin is a lot faster.


----------



## notting

Yeah the speed thing is a bit scary.
The whole thing is pretty crazy!!


----------



## galumay

tech/a said:


> I don’t have to convince you
> Not you I
> But I do enjoy learning and the discussion
> It’s an important topic I think as it will be featuring in our lives in someway going forward




Absolutely, that is why I have posted in this thread, even though I am not a trader. I am reading voraciously, on all points of view, to try to better understand cryptos & blockchain.


----------



## notting

Even the founder of Bitcoin doesn't think it's going to be used as a international transaction currency but as 'a store of wealth, a safe haven if you will.'
That would be Gold.
https://www.cnbc.com/video/2017/12/25/buying-on-the-cryptocurrency-dips.html


----------



## jjbinks

notting said:


> That would be Gold.




I think it is very similar to gold. These days who really cares about "using gold". Sure it has it uses but use of gold is not what affects the price. It is a relatively rare resource. I guess bitcoin is similar.


----------



## galumay

jjbinks said:


> It is a relatively rare resource.




Oddly enough, its not actually. Just about every gram ever mined is still in circulation, its a relatively common mineral with massive reserves in the ground still. Its mainly gained its price thru emotional attribution of value and speculation.


----------



## InsvestoBoy

notting said:


> Even the founder of Bitcoin doesn't think it's going to be used as a international transaction currency but as 'a store of wealth, a safe haven if you will.'
> That would be Gold.
> https://www.cnbc.com/video/2017/12/25/buying-on-the-cryptocurrency-dips.html




Huh? I didn't watch the video but the caption says "Julian Hosp"? How is whoever that is "the founder of Bitcoin"?

Whoever that is proves my point about people that are spouting the next trope to rationalise their position.

Satoshi Nakomoto, the alias used by the *actual *"founder" of Bitcoin wrote in his seminal Bitcoin whitepaper that it was specifically intended to be an international transaction currency. You can read it here:

https://bitcoin.org/bitcoin.pdf

The title is literally "Bitcoin: A Peer-to-Peer Electronic Cash System". Cash. Not gold.

BTC longs used to say BTC was going to supplant the USD because you could send money anywhere, nearly instantly, for nearly nothing.

Now that there are 200,000+ transactions stuck in the BTC mempool, and the average transaction fee is $20+ (with transaction fee $1,000+ to clear a moderate sized transaction) and companies like BitPay and Steam are discontinuing Bitcoin transactions in favor of Bitcoin Cash or Litecoin or whatever, this whole "digital gold" meme is just the latest way for BTC longs to rationalise a system that has been unable to scale and meet it's original intention.



galumay said:


> Its mainly gained its price thru emotional attribution of value and speculation.




Maybe better in another thread but if you look at the chart I posted in the "international markets banter thread" you can see that is obviously not true. The biggest and most liquid financial flows drive the price of gold, like real interest rate expectations (as that chart obviously demonstrates) and the long term cost of energy (production input).


----------



## sptrawler

That's a good link(post#102) InsvestoBoy, explains the Fiat system well.


----------



## InsvestoBoy

A new fun aspect of poor BTC scalability, especially all those who hopped on the bandwagon recently and bought a fraction of a BTC to get on the train.


----------



## Smurf1976

InsvestoBoy said:


> The biggest and most liquid financial flows drive the price of gold, like real interest rate expectations (as that chart obviously demonstrates) and the long term cost of energy (production input).




Worth a mention that Bitcoin is estimated to be (worldwide) using roughy the same amount of electricity as the combined consumption of WA, SA and Tas or enough to run all of New Zealand.

That’s not massive at the global scale obviously but it’s quite a lot of power to facilitate all this.

I wonder how that scales if this technology were to actually replace conventional currencies? I'm not an expert on blockchain tech so don't know the answer there but it does seem rather a lot of energy to make this work given that it's still a very minor thing in terms of actual transactions conducted with it.


----------



## SuperGlue

Energy consumption by bitcoin miners have been disputed by some experts according to the article below.
Hard data for actual energy consumption is required from bitcoin miners, but I guess they are holding everything close to their chest.

 Digiconomist's index  -  Bitcoin energy consumption index

"Digiconomist's index has emerged as something of an authority recently. The index was developed by Alex de Vries, a 28-year-old consultant for PwC with a background in data and risk analysis who now specializes in blockchain, the technology that underpins bitcoin. *He founded Digiconomist as a hobby in 2014 and acknowledges he has no previous experience in energy economics*."

https://www.cnbc.com/2017/12/21/no-...to-consume-all-the-worlds-energy-in-2020.html


----------



## brty

None of us know when a bubble/boom whatever you want to call it will end.
Tech/A's position from a trading perspective is very understandable. Earlier in this thread he mentioned Ripple. I've been following it from around $A1, down to 90c now up to $A1.64.

Anyone that has bought on the dip to 90 cents or at market around the $ mark is currently doing very well.

It is not for me after my Sister-in-law mentioned it, and wanted to know all about it (ie how to invest), as that is one of my end of bubble indicators. 

Over the same time, one of the penny dreadful stocks I've entered has also risen over 50%, there still plenty doing that in the bull market. Which is worse??

Frankly I don't know or care, but will stick to what I know best, while others have fun with cryptocurrencies.

One aspect I have noticed though, as I watch and collect information about these currencies (on coinspot).......
https://www.coinspot.com.au/tradecoins

.......is that those priced from a few cents to a couple of dollars seem to be those with the greatest % moves, mostly up over the last couple of weeks, while bitcoin has stagnated a bit. Also the number of coins available for trading seems to be growing rapidly.

Each to their own, if someone wants to gamble on this instead of commodities/stocks, then let them, especially some-one with the Duck's experience. However my SIL that has never traded anything, it is a definite no-no!! (same for most beginners here!)


----------



## notting

We're all gambling on it dude.
I, for one, am not saying don't do anything, just taking the piss and getting some good analysis in the banter,
whilst talking up and down the merits of Bitcoin.  Which I maintain is the greatest short on earth.
I've actually been longing Bcash lows and selling the highs all the while.
Expecting push downs on Western holidays and buying back on normal days.  It's how the Chinese behave. They can cheat on the electricity too!  Watch me video a page or two back.
Gold Stocks


----------



## tech/a

Notting your full of it

Prove you have bought lows and highs
I’ll support ASF with a Gift of a grand
To Joe. 
Why do you have this need to be the smartest 
Poster in a thread?


----------



## notting

Sure thing Ducky.
And days like the one before Christmas when we're all drunk and distracted or all ready on holidays.
One of the things I am also mindful of is the Chomsky reading melenials who also all think that the central banks are totally corrupt, and that 9/11 was a hoax, terrorism as a fabricated excuse to build make war for oil and Bitcoin is the great Trump(drain the swamp) of the financial world ect ect.  So I'm thinking Gold will become more and more of an attraction to them as Bitcoin fails or even as it appears to be taken over by the 'corrupt establishment'.


----------



## notting

tech/a said:


> Notting your full of it
> 
> Prove you have bought lows and highs
> I’ll support ASF with a Gift of a grand
> To Joe.
> Why do you have this need to be the smartest
> Poster in a thread?




Thanks I didn't realize I was the smartest!! (smart ars now) 
Yes I have bought Bcash a couple of times whilst bashing *BITCOIN*, sold it once and am long it now.  Won't be making you a donation just yet though.
My gambling exploits are not totally devoid of logic, and I'm sharing the logic.  That should be enough for you. Follow it if you think it's so good.
Your a great trader and I respect what you share very much and I understand your current stance.
The same can be said for Cryptokitties
So everyone, Ducky is much much much smarter than me, look I can barely string two words together.  there you go.......

I should add that I can turn my argument regarding Chinese manipulation on it's head and make an equally strong case for why Bitcoine will never fail. Look at the way they rescued their share market.  That was total manipulation.  Bitcoin would be a snap. (not if the FBI or some such let the cat out of the bag however)

  That's not what my instincts are telling me.  Instincts are not necessarily the greatest thing to use as we know.  However some are strong at times and the art of that is knowing when to trust them whilst ignoring them most of the time. Remember Qantas, there are quite a few but too hard to dig out.
I usually make a strong statement the flies in the face of technical or trends when I have it strongly.  I will sometimes doubt it myself, after the fact, but when it's clear I share it also as a way of making a note to myself at that price point.
I have helped a lot of people make money sharing that. Then telling them not to ask me again! (used to do that at work, naughty yes! They did very well)


----------



## tech/a

As I thought.


----------



## notting

Note how BCash is slower to 'follow up' & down than Bitcoin and the rest up to this point.  Just sayen


----------



## explod

There's no money in *truth*.  So to remove *fact *in support of truth we have *conspire* in which I
I do believe.

Good discussion today.


----------



## mcgrath111

I had btc back in the Silk road days. I no longer hold, but I do love a rollercoaster.

Like most, I also think it is a bubble. However, would love to see it continue to rocket. My fear is that people who don't have the money will continue to 'invest' in it / with little to fall back on. 

Goodluck to bitcoin and all those who follow it. There are risks, but if you believe you have those risks calculated and mitigated; continue to prosper


----------



## moXJO

I'm up over $500k off of a very small investment. Other guys I know are $10mill plus from ico's with under $100k investments.
Shares are dead for now. The money is in crypto.


----------



## sptrawler

moXJO said:


> I'm up over $500k off of a very small investment. Other guys I know are $10mill plus from ico's with under $100k investments.
> Shares are dead for now. The money is in crypto.



Might be a good time to add another $100k?


----------



## moXJO

sptrawler said:


> Might be a good time to add another $100k?



Majority of these coins will be worthless. But in the meantime cash in on your trading knowledge.
 Same parabolic charts as back in the early 2000's.
I'll trade pig $hit if it's in a bull run.
There is a lot of dumb money still waiting on the sidelines.


----------



## sptrawler

Wish I had the gonads for it, jeez there has been a lot of money made and lost, good on you for picking it.


----------



## moXJO

sptrawler said:


> Wish I had the gonads for it, jeez there has been a lot of money made and lost, good on you for picking it.




I invested in ripple and bitcoin a few years back after hearing a story of the guy that accidently threw out $5 million in bitcoin (his bitcoin is about $125mill now) wish I had of thrown more money into it now.


----------



## notting

sptrawler said:


> Wish I had the gonads for it, jeez there has been a lot of money made and lost, good on you for picking it.




Maybe it's brains and not gonads holding you back, since you posted -
24hr high 22541
currently - 19900 -13.27%
As per Aud pricing on BTC


Whilst

Ripple rose 20 percent Wednesday to an all-time high.

The gains followed news that Tokyo-based financial services company SBI Holdings and its subsidiary SBI Ripple Asia announced the establishment of a "consortium" with some Japanese credit card companies to utilize blockchain technology, according to an online translation of a release. Ripple and SBI Holdings created SBI Ripple Asia in January 2016. It wasn't clear what the extent of Ripple's involvement would be in the new consortium.


----------



## moXJO

Aussie banks are apparently closing accounts or causing trouble for people who have crypto exchange transactions on their statements. Anyone else heard this?


----------



## tech/a

Really

My bank took years to get our business
One of the reasons I liked Ripple was that NAB are involved and CBA
are also investigation participation.

In my mind another fear tactic.
From a banks point of view NON participation will be a bad move.
There is a lot to fear from a banks viewpoint.


----------



## moXJO

tech/a said:


> Really
> 
> My bank took years to get our business
> One of the reasons I liked Ripple was that NAB are involved and CBA
> are also investigation participation.
> 
> In my mind another fear tactic.
> From a banks point of view NON participation will be a bad move.
> There is a lot to fear from a banks viewpoint.



I'll try and get a screen shot from one of the trading exchanges that I use that were having problems.


----------



## moXJO




----------



## tech/a

Who's that?

We are with BTC
Who are in Aust. So far no issues.
We have just recently purchased a wallet and have most in it.
This to me is the safest thing to do.


----------



## moXJO

tech/a said:


> Who's that?
> 
> We are with BTC
> Who are in Aust. So far no issues.
> We have just recently purchased a wallet and have most in it.
> This to me is the safest thing to do.



Thats with coinspot.
I have a few other accounts where the major banks dropped out from sending money to cryptocoin accounts.
Possibly fear of anti-laundering  laws? 
My worry is our $hitty current govt interfering with access on the sly. Wouldn't surprise me if the govt gets into bed once again with the banks to stop competition.


----------



## tech/a

We Bought more through CBA a week ago in the “Crash “

So since then?

Have you called them directly to see where they stand? 
Be interested in any response 
Which bank?


----------



## moXJO

tech/a said:


> We Bought more through CBA a week ago in the “Crash “
> 
> So since then?
> 
> Have you called them directly to see where they stand?
> Be interested in any response
> Which bank?



One of my other accounts had problems with nab.
I think they linked up with newsagents,  so you can deposit money from their now. Can still bpay though.


----------



## tech/a

Ripple at $1.97 after a fall back to $1.02 Last week.

Still like it.
Ill put together what I like when I have a little more time
Should expand a little on each.


----------



## Value Collector

tech/a said:


> What is the intrinsic value of a $100




Hoarding paper money is not a good idea either, I think you will find most super wealthy do not hoard currency beyond a limited amount needed for emergencies and living expenses.

$100 notes have gone down in value, and so people who know what they are doing generally try to exchange them for real assets as fast as they can.


----------



## Value Collector




----------



## notting

"It's bad people, crazy bubble, bad idea, luring people into easy wealth, people who feel like victims, crooks, crazy's, ego maniacs, people full of resentment avoid them like the plague."
Here's one - But of course he is the exception   -



*President Nicolas Maduro*

Venezuela's cryptocurrency will launch within days and be backed by 5.3 billion barrels of oil worth $267 billion, in a bid to offset a deep financial crisis, the socialist government said on Thursday.

It's not like their going to sell the oil regardless 

I dunno It kind of looks like the time Charlie Manson stepped onto center stage as the final act of the sixties.  All the free love, legal acid and hippie movement all came to a rather sad and sudden end.







Which around the time of the Altomont free concert, when the youth had all convinced themselves that the cops and establishment were the bad guys and the Rolling Stones decided to hire Hells Angels to provide security at their free  concert. You know motor bikes were really cool then too.....


----------



## tech/a

Value Collector said:


>





Munger says nothing
He plays to the crowed with the “Expected Response”


Demonstrates no understanding of the ideology
Let alone the coin and it’s developement
In fact cryptocurrency eleminates a great deal of the smoke and mirrors 
He advocates against. Those people who develop things like Credit Default Swaps.
 Mind you I certainly agree with his philosophy of holding a concerntrated portfolio of stock that you know and working it.

He Just came across as a babbling old guy.
Albeit a rich one


----------



## sptrawler

tech/a said:


> In my mind another fear tactic.
> From a banks point of view NON participation will be a bad move.
> There is a lot to fear from a banks viewpoint.




It seems to me that crypto currency, is trying to get ahead of the cashless society curve, which the Government and Banks want.
It is a bit like Elon Musk, trying to jump ahead of mainstream manufacturers, and dictate the direction of electric vehicle development.
I doubt very much, that the Banks are fearfull, as governments are lazy and use banks to regulate the money supply for them.
My guess is, this will bring about the change over to cashless, much quicker than otherwise would have been achieved.
Somewhat like Musk and Tesla, being the advertising medium, bringing the acceptance of electric vehicles to the masses.
I'm assuming the Government, will roll out a crypto currency for large denominations, and leave small notes circulating.
A lot of the heavy lifting, to sway public acceptance for change, is being done for them.IMO


----------



## notting

Basically you have a plethora of contenders offering up the blockchain technology and as far as I can see Ripple has the best product.
All the hoopla is just market madness.
You can rightly argue that the winner, who nets the biggest players or gets the biggest chunk of the game, will be like a new VISA or Master Card for bank to bank and other transactions without the currency ticket clipping on international transactions.
The best Block-chain will get a small percentage per transaction so will be a valid business.  Not a store of wealth, I suppose as tradable as any stock.
However, if they can't fix the volatility of the coin as it travels from one place to another, this is not the model.
So the fun at the moment is actually the risk for even one potential winner!


----------



## notting

I should add that unless they are pegged to the entire basket of world currencies or they select a basket and make it only tradable in and between set countries,  the volatility will not be able to be contained(because it's a free floating currency based on nothing at all even if it is limited in number) so it will only ever be a fringe thing, if it survives at all, and hence the values of the main ones today are insane.
None of them are pegged. So their all screwed.
PS Probably why Munger says it's a hoax.


----------



## moXJO

Banks are trialing ripple technology. Not the actual xrp, so I am told.


----------



## notting

As suspected their all being pushed down(Bitcoin manipulation causes the others to follow) as the West is distracted with it's new year.
So could get a solid bounce from early hours of the US Tuesday morning, before it dies!
Someone agrees with me on gold- 

https://www.cnbc.com/video/2017/12/29/heres-how-much-bitcoin-could-fall-in-2018-gartman.html

According to BTC Markets the new year is already here.
Happy New Year everyone!!


----------



## tech/a

Im sure Bitcoin will trade lower than it is today well lower.
*But* Cryptocurrency and Blockchain  technology is here to stay.

My view is to keep your eyes out for emerging technologies and 
Currencies that take up the Challenge to fill the holes the FIAT
monetary system has. 

There is a real chance that Bitcoin could trade more as a commodity
than a currency.


----------



## Kryzz

Wouldn't be surprised to see a spike toward 10,000-11,000 USD. Around the 38.2% retracement from the the November leg higher.


----------



## Value Collector

tech/a said:


> He Just came across as a babbling old guy.
> Albeit a rich one




One that made he way in life by being abnormally rational and correct in his views, and who along the way was generally told he was wrong by the crowd, until he was proved right and walked away with their money.


----------



## tech/a

Yes and there are many who made their way through life 
Who appeared to many as acting totally irrationally and 
Branded as wrong by the crowd until proven right.

There will always be trail blazers and all of them will
Be seen as whackos by the majority who cannot see
The forest for the trees.

These people are as rare as the Mungers of the world,
Perhaps even more so. Prepared to accept ridicule from
All in many cases.

Past success doesn’t make you an expert in ALL fields.


----------



## sptrawler

moXJO said:


> Banks are trialing ripple technology. Not the actual xrp, so I am told.




The Banks and Reserve Bank are trailing something.

http://www.theage.com.au/business/b...d-to-gather-pace-in-2018-20171222-p4yy03.html


----------



## Bill M

sptrawler said:


> The Banks and Reserve Bank are trailing something.
> 
> http://www.theage.com.au/business/b...d-to-gather-pace-in-2018-20171222-p4yy03.html



Wow, Aussie banks move so fast, Pay Pal have been doing this for years.

_The system will also allow people to link bank accounts to phone numbers or email addresses, removing the need to enter a BSB or account number when transferring money._


----------



## notting

Bill M said:


> Wow, Aussie banks move so fast, Pay Pal have been doing this for years.



Speaking of Paypal.
I think they missed a huge opportunity to make a mega killing by not offering Paypal coin as a form of transaction.
you could cash in your balance for it and get much less fees on your future transaction or just choose to do transactions by buying as you buy and sell stuff.
Then when the hole critpo currency thing collapses.  They can just buy it all back.  Would have been a king maker.


----------



## sptrawler

Bill M said:


> Wow, Aussie banks move so fast, Pay Pal have been doing this for years.
> 
> _The system will also allow people to link bank accounts to phone numbers or email addresses, removing the need to enter a BSB or account number when transferring money._




That is exactly what my other half said, when I read it out to her.
The problem with our banks and reserve bank is, they are responsible for the confidence required in Australia's fiscal system, paypal is just another ebay company.
If paypal stuffs up, there will be a lot of angry people screaming and ranting, but it wouldn't even be a blip in the financial system.

However if the big 4 and the reserve bank stuffed it up, we would be in deep manure, on a World wide scale.
For the roll out of a new financial platform to be accepted, by the Banks and the Reserve Bank, it would have had some serious rigorous testing.
I don't think it would be an off the shelf package, also one would guess it is a platform that can be expanded upon at a later date, to incorporate crypto currency when it becomes mainstream.
Just my guess.

Actually Australia up there at the front, of change in the fiscal systems, I read recently a first world country is moving toward plastic notes. wow


----------



## robz7777

Few questions to be asked, that those in Aus haven't had to ask but others have (Greece, Cyprus, Argentina, Venezuela).. For some the answer to the questions can be Bitcoin:
1 - What IS the plastic in my wallet (or more importantly now - on the computer)? 
2 - What is the impact of all this on 'money' (money printing / negative interest rates / central bank competition to devalue their currencies)?
3 - If the US government is 'backing' the USD - can they actually do it, or have they made too many promises ($20T in debt, $80T++ in other liabilities and ongoing budget deficits)?
4 - The answer to the above used to be Gold/Silver/Sea Shells, but is there another 'store of value' which is better (limited number, easily transferable, portable, divisible, secure, not 'backed' by anything - like gold)? 

If Bitcoin is 'better' in this capacity than Gold, then could it be worth as much as gold eventually ($2T ish for existing mined gold)? Until (big IF) Bitcoin gets to universal acceptance like gold has - the price is going to be volatile as people try to figure out what it is actually worth. 

EVEN IF we think that the crypto space is a bubble, consider:
- That the 2000 stock bubble peaked at about $3T before it popped vs cryptos at approx $600T. 
- That wall street hasn't dramatically moved in yet, how many people own a crypto ETF in their super fund?
- That governments haven't moved in yet and are beginning to build rules around it (ie tax rulings) which may imply acceptance

* Agree the price of other cryptos are bubbly - as some of the use cases don't either make business sense or have no 'moat' that you'd traditionally talk about with shares. Also they are open source so easily replicated where projects are profitable (so generate increased competition). Bitcoin does have some issues which need to be resolved (transaction cost / transaction time / PoS vs PoW) but has significant advantage as the first mover (a lot of people now know about Bitcoin and maybe Ethereum/Ripple, but couldn't name any others)


----------



## sptrawler

robz7777 said:


> Few questions to be asked, that those in Aus haven't had to ask but others have (Greece, Cyprus, Argentina, Venezuela).. For some the answer to the questions can be Bitcoin:
> 1 - What IS the plastic in my wallet (or more importantly now - on the computer)?
> 2 - What is the impact of all this on 'money' (money printing / negative interest rates / central bank competition to devalue their currencies)?
> 3 - If the US government is 'backing' the USD - can they actually do it, or have they made too many promises ($20T in debt, $80T++ in other liabilities and ongoing budget deficits)?
> 4 - The answer to the above used to be Gold/Silver/Sea Shells, but is there another 'store of value' which is better (limited number, easily transferable, portable, divisible, secure, not 'backed' by anything - like gold)?
> 
> If Bitcoin is 'better' in this capacity than Gold, then could it be worth as much as gold eventually ($2T ish for existing mined gold)? Until (big IF) Bitcoin gets to universal acceptance like gold has - the price is going to be volatile as people try to figure out what it is actually worth.
> 
> EVEN IF we think that the crypto space is a bubble, consider:
> - That the 2000 stock bubble peaked at about $3T before it popped vs cryptos at approx $600T.
> - That wall street hasn't dramatically moved in yet, how many people own a crypto ETF in their super fund?
> - That governments haven't moved in yet and are beginning to build rules around it (ie tax rulings) which may imply acceptance
> 
> * Agree the price of other cryptos are bubbly - as some of the use cases don't either make business sense or have no 'moat' that you'd traditionally talk about with shares. Also they are open source so easily replicated where projects are profitable (so generate increased competition). Bitcoin does have some issues which need to be resolved (transaction cost / transaction time / PoS vs PoW) but has significant advantage as the first mover (a lot of people now know about Bitcoin and maybe Ethereum/Ripple, but couldn't name any others)




Don't worry if it is a threat, mainstream will sort it, that is the unfortunate reality.IMO


----------



## galumay

sptrawler said:


> The Banks and Reserve Bank are trailing something.




Not really related to cryptos or blockchain though, countries like Denmark have had the same sort of system for years, we used it when there and it was great, just used our mobile number for payments in real time.

I think this sort of thing is the likely real impact of the crypto/blockchain disruption - traditional financial businesses will upgrade their processes to be cheaper, faster and without barriers, so we will all benefit.


----------



## notting

robz7777 said:


> If Bitcoin is 'better' in this capacity than Gold, then could it be worth as much as gold eventually ($2T ish for existing mined gold)? Until (big IF) Bitcoin gets to universal acceptance like gold has - the price is going to be volatile as people try to figure out what it is actually worth.




Smart people already have worked out what it's worth - nothing.

https://www.cnbc.com/video/2017/12/...really-stupid-speculators-stockman-warns.html


----------



## Value Collector

robz7777 said:


> Few questions to be asked, that those in Aus haven't had to ask but others have (Greece, Cyprus, Argentina, Venezuela).. For some the answer to the questions can be Bitcoin:
> 1 - What IS the plastic in my wallet (or more importantly now - on the computer)?
> 2 - What is the impact of all this on 'money' (money printing / negative interest rates / central bank competition to devalue their currencies)?
> 3 - If the US government is 'backing' the USD - can they actually do it, or have they made too many promises ($20T in debt, $80T++ in other liabilities and ongoing budget deficits)?
> 4 - The answer to the above used to be Gold/Silver/Sea Shells, but is there another 'store of value' which is better (limited number, easily transferable, portable, divisible, secure, not 'backed' by anything - like gold)?
> 
> If Bitcoin is 'better' in this capacity than Gold, then could it be worth as much as gold eventually ($2T ish for existing mined gold)? Until (big IF) Bitcoin gets to universal acceptance like gold has - the price is going to be volatile as people try to figure out what it is actually worth.
> 
> EVEN IF we think that the crypto space is a bubble, consider:
> - That the 2000 stock bubble peaked at about $3T before it popped vs cryptos at approx $600T.
> - That wall street hasn't dramatically moved in yet, how many people own a crypto ETF in their super fund?
> - That governments haven't moved in yet and are beginning to build rules around it (ie tax rulings) which may imply acceptance
> 
> * Agree the price of other cryptos are bubbly - as some of the use cases don't either make business sense or have no 'moat' that you'd traditionally talk about with shares. Also they are open source so easily replicated where projects are profitable (so generate increased competition). Bitcoin does have some issues which need to be resolved (transaction cost / transaction time / PoS vs PoW) but has significant advantage as the first mover (a lot of people now know about Bitcoin and maybe Ethereum/Ripple, but couldn't name any others)




Question 5, could bit coin be the equivalent of tulips bulbs.

https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Tulip_mania


----------



## tech/a

It could be and it may not be.

The basis of Cryptocurrency is here to stay.
It’s being adopted by banks and financial institutions
It won’t be long and Govts are likely to link currency to a
Blockchain or Blockchain like technology

There are already variants and lots of them each with their
Own positives and negatives being traded.

As I’ve said before Bitcoin could just become a commodity at a value
Which funds can be parked and liquidated if required.


----------



## galumay

tech/a said:


> It won’t be long and Govts are likely to link currency to a
> Blockchain or Blockchain like technology




Its possible that they will use an encrypted ledger of some form, they possibly already do, but it will never be a public, decentralised, networked, ledger like blockchain - and therefore wont require a crypto to support the energy and work required to run and support a blockchain.

Thats really the problem with the pyramid/ponzi scheme that is blockchain and bitcoin, the 'currency' exists to allow the massively inefficient ledger to operate, the 'value' in the ledger is that it satisfies the libertarian's distrust of centralised social control. The whole pack of cards is basically built on lack of trust and it's existence is very precarious.

There is definitely some utility in blockchain, but its much more likely in the future that the cost of that utility will be paid for in existing currencies rather than the fairy money that the perpetrators of the sham are creating. Also because the likely form of those blockchain type technologies are likely to be centralised and private, the energy and work required to maintain them will be minimal, which lessens the need for any new currency to be magicked into existence.

Another nail in the coffin will be the fact that Governments and financial institutions are already responding to the disruption by removing the barriers to cross currency exchanges making them faster and cheaper. That removes a signifant benefit that cryptos enjoyed. 

All of that aside, like any massive bubble market, cryptos have created fantastic opportunity for traders like yourself Mr Duck, I have no doubt you will extract significant personal gain and wealth creation from the madness! Sadly there are many who will give up significant wealth because they dont have the ability or knowledge to play the trading game.


----------



## Value Collector

tech/a said:


> It could be and it may not be.
> 
> The basis of Cryptocurrency is here to stay.
> It’s being adopted by banks and financial institutions
> It won’t be long and Govts are likely to link currency to a
> Blockchain or Blockchain like technology
> 
> There are already variants and lots of them each with their
> Own positives and negatives being traded.
> 
> As I’ve said before Bitcoin could just become a commodity at a value
> Which funds can be parked and liquidated if required.




Tulips are here to stay also, they are pretty and smell nice, and hobbyists like to garden with them, but they aren’t worth the price they once spiked to when they first became super popular.


----------



## tech/a

Value Collector said:


> Tulips are here to stay also, they are pretty and smell nice, and hobbyists like to garden with them, but they aren’t worth the price they once spiked to when they first became super popular.




Back then the world was flat
The Sun revolved around the earth and 
You got around on a horse.
The gold standard wasn't known nor the Fiat system.

Think you'll agree that the world and its technologies are vastly different.

You may not agree that Bitcoins and Tulips are Flat earth and round.
I think we haven't seen the end to the highs seen with Bitcoin.

But as you know my money is on others.
So far the Bloom is brilliant.


----------



## Value Collector

tech/a said:


> Back then the world was flat
> The Sun revolved around the earth and
> You got around on a horse.
> The gold standard wasn't known nor the Fiat system.
> 
> Think you'll agree that the world and its technologies are vastly different.
> 
> You may not agree that Bitcoins and Tulips are Flat earth and round.
> I think we haven't seen the end to the highs seen with Bitcoin.
> 
> But as you know my money is on others.
> So far the Bloom is brilliant.




Nope, the earth had been proven to be round about 1000 years before the tulip bubble.

But yes tech has advanced, but human nature remains the same, we haven’t as a species yet unhooked our selves from our capability to invent bubbles.

Good luck with it, it will be great until it’s not.


----------



## tech/a

Amount at risk no biggie

Exponential spike of insane speculative
Irrational madness great
I’ll be on it
250% so far CRAZY

Zero
Life will be no different


----------



## tech/a

oh and that Propery Bubble that was going to cost me everything I’d ever worked for which I rode for 18 yrs before 
Freeholding everything and forever turning me into a self funded whatever

When is this happening?


----------



## moXJO

Value Collector said:


> Nope, the earth had been proven to be round about 1000 years before the tulip bubble.
> 
> But yes tech has advanced, but human nature remains the same, we haven’t as a species yet unhooked our selves from our capability to invent bubbles.
> 
> Good luck with it, it will be great until it’s not.



Bubbles are awesome. 
First in...best dressed.


----------



## notting

Well then jump on some AI stocks, cause your involuntarily calling this a bubble whilst staying on it which kind of indicates an implosion is nigh!


----------



## moXJO

notting said:


> Well then jump on some AI stocks, cause your involuntarily calling this a bubble whilst staying on it which kind of indicates an implosion is nigh!



I sold out half the other day. My initial investment was a couple thousand and take was in the hundreds of thousands.

 I'm not sure we have reached a top yet. I think xrp will have legs to $5. But I'm watching what South Korea does with interest.

I'm not big on stocks anymore. Occasionally I will jump on something, but I  definitely lost the passion for it a while ago. I sucked as a trader but was great at jumping on winners that 10bagged out my losses. 

Day trading I was hit and miss. Getting in early and holding was what I was good at. And thats what I stuck with. 

Not just investing in the usual property or shares.
 I made profits reselling minelab detectors into Africa during a recent gold rush with minimal effort. 100-200%.

Or rare coins during the whole monetarium takeover/pyramid scheme  fiasco.
Sheep/cattle
Food products 
Exotic fish breeding.
Insects.
All on top of regular business.
But crypto I never thought would run the way it did. I missed the boat on it by only chucking a couple thousand in.

AI and biotech are still a bit early. Although there is a guy doing diy genetic mods to himself in the US and stuff like that. It's  usually the start of a bigger trend.


----------



## notting

OOOPPPS 







> CHINA CENTRAL BANK ASKS LOCAL AUTHORITIES FOR ACTION ON BITCOIN MINERS






> Before the beginning of 2017, China’s top three exchanges swapped the most bitcoins worldwide, capturing the lion’s share of globes BTC trades. One of those exchanges was Huobi, a company headquartered in Beijing who held China’s top BTC trade volumes since 2013. However, in January of 2017, the People’s Bank of China (PBOC) started cracking down on domestic exchanges facilitating cryptocurrency trades within the country. At first, things just seemed like some harsher regulatory action would take place, but the central bank shut down all of the Chinese exchanges who enabled digital asset trades with the renminbi.




I wonder if that means The Communists will not will not allow them to mine in any currency.


----------



## sptrawler

All I can say, is well done guys, you have pulled off a blinder.

I'm just from the clunky old brigade, that waddles along with franked dividend shares and term deposits.
I suppose once you're retired, it becomes difficult to gamble, as the recovery is even more difficult. LOL


----------



## tech/a

Notting

When you look back on life I’m sure you’ll see that your fear
Will see you miss life changing opportunities.

You don’t have to stake your life on it.
Just make quantified risks to increase your capital base.

Money unfortunately definitely makes MORE money and eradicates
Financial pressure and FEAR of loss.—- you can take the odd one!

Posting endless copy and pastes of argument that supports your view
Just feeds your fear.
All the while opportunities wait for no man.


----------



## notting

You keep coming back to this fear thing.
I see it as more of a 'disbelief in the value,' there for it's not something I want to buy or hold.
It's a propensity for bargain hunting or perhaps 'being a cheap person!!'
However, perhaps you see something I do not, so I will take it on board as an insight and see if I can shift on it.
I did buy some Ripple yesterday on a dip but then sold it again after about a 7% rise.
I'm definitely uncomfortable holding it, whilst cryptos are in extreme bubble territory.
Thanks Ducky


----------



## tech/a

Notting I’m glad you recognise my post as an effort to
Switch on the light.
When I see you sold out after a 7% rise when it’s not unusual to
See swings of 50% —— yes I come back to fear.

We are forever looking for volatility that’s where the profit is.
When you find it analyse it and use it.


----------



## tech/a

moXJO said:


> I sold out half the other day. My initial investment was a couple thousand and take was in the hundreds of thousands.
> 
> I'm not sure we have reached a top yet. I think xrp will have legs to $5. But I'm watching what South Korea does with interest.
> 
> I'm not big on stocks anymore. Occasionally I will jump on something, but I  definitely lost the passion for it a while ago. I sucked as a trader but was great at jumping on winners that 10bagged out my losses.
> 
> Day trading I was hit and miss. Getting in early and holding was what I was good at. And thats what I stuck with.
> 
> Not just investing in the usual property or shares.
> I made profits reselling minelab detectors into Africa during a recent gold rush with minimal effort. 100-200%.
> 
> Or rare coins during the whole monetarium takeover/pyramid scheme  fiasco.
> Sheep/cattle
> Food products
> Exotic fish breeding.
> Insects.
> All on top of regular business.
> But crypto I never thought would run the way it did. I missed the boat on it by only chucking a couple thousand in.
> 
> AI and biotech are still a bit early. Although there is a guy doing diy genetic mods to himself in the US and stuff like that. It's  usually the start of a bigger trend.




Which brings me to moXJOs post 

While I understand selling off half your holdings for a couple of hundred K 
Which if sold at about $2.50 my workings say you must have had about 200000
Of them

What I don’t understand is that we all want to be in the position to change our livers
You were in that position while you have 100000 left which a $1 move = $100,000
My observation is that you left $150,000 on the floor in a few days!
Price has risen about $1.50 on that time.

How often do we get to pull $100,000 + a DAY! 
With almost no risk to base capital!
You could still set you and your family up for a few generations 
At least your in the position to do so.

But you were in TWICE that position a few days ago,
Plus you’ll lose around a third in tax.

Still 2 in the hand as they say.


----------



## moXJO

tech/a said:


> Which brings me to moXJOs post
> 
> While I understand selling off half your holdings for a couple of hundred K
> Which if sold at about $2.50 my workings say you must have had about 200000
> Of them
> 
> What I don’t understand is that we all want to be in the position to change our livers
> You were in that position while you have 100000 left which a $1 move = $100,000
> My observation is that you left $150,000 on the floor in a few days!
> Price has risen about $1.50 on that time.
> 
> How often do we get to pull $100,000 + a DAY!
> With almost no risk to base capital!
> You could still set you and your family up for a few generations
> At least your in the position to do so.
> 
> But you were in TWICE that position a few days ago,
> Plus you’ll lose around a third in tax.
> 
> Still 2 in the hand as they say.



I'm flicking some money to a business  venture in China and needed quick cash. I got out from $2.90 to $3.10. 

"Couple thousand" was my initial investment. Not "couple hundred thousand" profit. Plenty of xrp still in the game.

There was a lot left on the table from then to now. But other opportunities to make bigger money meant grabbing a bit now. Still stings though. Cheers for making it hurt a bit more Ducky with a well laid out summary

Like I said I think xrp has legs till $5. The market caps getting a bit out of control though. Its possible xrp may have overtaken btc today? Have to check. 

Theres a lot of btc shills trying to downramp. And also some legitimate questions about ripple labs coming out. I'm a bit half half on it

Ethereum has added a lot of changes to their coin  the other day. Its already moved a bit but I think it could run as well.


----------



## kid hustlr

I have people in the operations part of my office (i work in a supply chain company) talking about how much money they have made (on paper) from this. Quite incredible how far reaching this is now.

Tech I like your thoughts (really like) about the fear - calculated risks are rarely an error. I must admit I have no piece of this so perhaps I'm a little bias but life isn't this easy, you can't just print money - surely something happens in this space that atleast leads to some type of fall??!


----------



## tech/a

kid hustlr said:


> I have people in the operations part of my office (i work in a supply chain company) talking about how much money they have made (on paper) from this. Quite incredible how far reaching this is now.
> 
> Tech I like your thoughts (really like) about the fear - calculated risks are rarely an error. I must admit I have no piece of this so perhaps I'm a little bias but life isn't this easy, you can't just print money - surely something happens in this space that atleast leads to some type of fall??!




Well every now and again at least a few times in life you can print money.
Life doesn’t care that it shouldn’t happen.
That it’s a bubble 
That people make money out of thin air 
That every expert you can muster tells you it can’t happen.

2009 couldn’t happen the banks were too big to fail.

There might be a fall
There might not be a fall.

For 99% of the population it won’t effect their life in any way shape or form just like every other opportunity they *WATCHED* —— crippled by fear——pass by.

The choice is simple be one of the 99% 
OR
Be one of the 1%

Become an expert in handling losers and youll 
Be a long term winner.


----------



## notting

Speaking of rich animania -

*The parody Keeps on giving
Dogecoin cryptocurrency just broke $2 billion for its market cap*

Dogecoin, a cryptocurrency created as a parody after a popular internet meme, saw its market cap crack $2 billion on Sunday
The rise of Dogecoin and other bitcoin descendants is due to the fact that they're perceived as being "cheap" compared to bitcoin or ether, according to Dave Chapman from Octagon Strategy
One of the Dogecoin founders told a cryptocurrency news site that the token's rise makes him worry about market excess


----------



## CanOz

A great blog post about blockchain and ecoins....

http://thereformedbroker.com/2018/01/07/the-fatal-mistake-crypto-investors-are-making-now/


----------



## sptrawler

That was a good post CanOz, explained how bitcoins work, in layman's terms really well.

There is starting to be some scam artists, trolling around in the bitcoin market, here is a report of a W.A victim. As everyone on ASF says, "do your own research, be sure you know what you're buying and most of all be careful.

https://thewest.com.au/news/wa/perth-grandfather-fleeced-in-bitcoin-trade-scam-ng-b88699949z

For new visitors to ASF, if you have a question, post it, you will get sensible, honest replies from some pretty experienced people.
It might not be advice, but there will be some knowledgeable input, that I'm sure will help.


----------



## moXJO

Ok time for unsubstantiated rumors.
Crypto is moving pretty fast. Big profits are gone from bitcoin,  litecoin and all the other stuff thats run into the thousands and people are moving into ico or initial coin offering. You can pick these up cheap and every now and then you get a 500-1000 bagger in a matter of weeks. You also get a majority that do nothing.
The recent prl ico made people thousands off a low investment.
Selling them will probably  be a pain in the ar$e and crash the price, but whatever. You're a millionaire on paper anyway.

Couple of resources to get on the bubble train.
http://airdropalert.com

This lets you know of upcoming ico's which you can participate in if you are a subscriber (via email).
Then to find out what the latest ramp is simply check what reddit is currently pumping (shilling). It's everything you wish stocks could be.
Yep, sounds like a legit way to make a million. 


This c.rap could blow up at anytime. Only play with money you can lose. And don't go sending coins out to addresses like you just fell off the turnip truck.
IMPORTANT #AIRDROP RULES: 1. Never give your private key to anyone! 2. Avoid entering real names into signup forms! 3. Do not send $ETH or $BTC to any airdrop! 4. Use virtual machines for custom wallets!


----------



## Bill M

moXJO said:


> Do not send $ETH or $BTC to any airdrop



What exactly does this mean?

I think it means spending your BTC or ETH for start ups. Is that right?


----------



## moXJO

Airdrops are free coins into your wallet. Sorry, my post was all over the shop.


----------



## qldfrog

an interesting article about a joke now valued at 2billions USd; while I do believe in blockchain and also believe bitcoin has as much value as any fiat currency if not more, this illustrates both the FOMO and the sad state of these quantitative easing and actual devaluation of money all around the world: too much free cash available, yet it seems not so much in people wallets but more in the big banks and funds
anyway have fun:
http://fortune.com/2018/01/08/dogecoin-hits-all-time-high-2-billion-valuation/


----------



## CanOz

qldfrog said:


> an interesting article about a joke now valued at 2billions USd; while I do believe in blockchain and also believe bitcoin has as much value as any fiat currency if not more, this illustrates both the FOMO and the sad state of these quantitative easing and actual devaluation of money all around the world: too much free cash available, yet it seems not so much in people wallets but more in the big banks and funds
> anyway have fun:
> http://fortune.com/2018/01/08/dogecoin-hits-all-time-high-2-billion-valuation/




That's your take on it.....ignore that fact that any coins intrinsic value is ZERO as it should be, Ignore the fact that this is showing all of the signs of a CLASSIC bubble....the people "investing" in this likely could not even spell Quantitative Easing......


----------



## notting

I'll try without  looking Quantative easing Whoooops 
Thank the Lord I'm not investing in it. Some kind of miracle one imagines


----------



## Kryzz

https://www.cnbc.com/2018/01/08/new...r-bitcoin-generates-worry-on-wall-street.html

Recent proposals of bull/bear leveraged ETFs proposed for listing too, surprised it’s taken this long for a filing


----------



## CanOz

I heard today on Twitter that the new phase of this craze was to sell the registered crypto trading accounts...apparently they're getting harder to come by....i'll try and find the tweet....

Jeez, if that ain't signs of a bubble then shoot me...


----------



## notting

If something has gone up 30,000% in a year and is being valued as a company worth 225B and has become the 10th largest company on earth by value, based on basically a computer byte, that can be replicated infinitly, I can understand why people would not call that a bubble.

Bubble just isn't the right word.

I don't think there is word for that, it hasn't been invented yet to describe what that is!

Oh wow it just came to me - '*The mother of all bubbles*,' oh no, that's for the bond market, "Oh, Oh, Oh, it's it's holy cow! -it's THE VIRGIN MARY."
I'm not getting my threads crossed here


----------



## CanOz

On a factual note....

BTC futures XBT 01-18 is getting more liquid, and the spread in Euro the sessions is getting narrower...


----------



## galumay

notting said:


> I don't think there is word for that, it hasn't been invented yet to describe what that is!




Its not a bubble, its an effing NEBULA!


----------



## notting

galumay said:


> Its not a bubble, its an effing NEBULA!



I had to look it up! 
Thank you.  I was stretching for something!
I'll try to get Cramer to use it.


----------



## moXJO

CanOz said:


> I heard today on Twitter that the new phase of this craze was to sell the registered crypto trading accounts...apparently they're getting harder to come by....i'll try and find the tweet....
> 
> Jeez, if that ain't signs of a bubble then shoot me...



Binance accounts I think it was. Yeah some crazy stuff going on.


----------



## moXJO

CanOz said:


> That's your take on it.....ignore that fact that any coins intrinsic value is ZERO as it should be, Ignore the fact that this is showing all of the signs of a CLASSIC bubble....the people "investing" in this likely could not even spell Quantitative Easing......



The whole world is investing in cryptocoin. At a scale never seen before. Its got a lot more run yet, but the pop is going to hurt.

 A lot of people I know have a lazy $5 to $10k on it.


----------



## Smurf1976

notting said:


> If something has gone up 30,000% in a year and is being valued as a company worth 225B and has become the 10th largest company on earth by value



All up cryptocurrencies are now valued at around USD 700 billion.

That's equivalent to the entire global oil industry's production for 4 months.

Or it's 0.9% of the whole world's annual GDP.

It's more than the market cap of any airline or car manufacturer.

And so on.

Given that even "blue collar" workers such as excavator operators and truck drivers are now casually talking about this during lunch breaks it sure looks like a mania to me.

It reminds me very much of the dot.com bubble. The internet had ongoing value most certainly but half baked business models producing no revenue with stocks trading at ridiculous prices sure didn't.


----------



## sptrawler

It was funny on the weekend, I was at a rely's house and we were chatting, their son said he was mining bitcoins a while back.
But now his computer can't do it, I didn't get into him about it , as we were just visiting.
But next time I will try and gleen more info.


----------



## luutzu

Read on Reuters that US companies double or triple their market cap by simply changing their company name to have Bitcoin or crypto etc. in it. Kodak doubled its share price by moving into some sort of crypto too. 

There's the "electronics", Computers, Digital, .Com... 

And oh, Buffett said he's almost certain crypto isn't going to end well. 

Maybe I wasn't paying much attention nbefore but I've never seen so many potential shiet storm brewing. 

Private debt, national debt at record level; asset bubbles; imaginary money bubble; property bubble... all over the world.


----------



## Value Collector

luutzu said:


> Read on Reuters that US companies double or triple their market cap by simply changing their company name to have Bitcoin or crypto etc. in it. Kodak doubled its share price by moving into some sort of crypto too.
> 
> There's the "electronics", Computers, Digital, .Com...
> 
> And oh, Buffett said he's almost certain crypto isn't going to end well.
> 
> Maybe I wasn't paying much attention nbefore but I've never seen so many potential shiet storm brewing.
> 
> Private debt, national debt at record level; asset bubbles; imaginary money bubble; property bubble... all over the world.




Buffett says he would buy 5year puts on cryptos if he could, so he is obviously thinking they are going to crash

https://www.google.com.au/amp/s/www...rrencies-will-almost-certainly-end-badly.html


----------



## tech/a

Ho hum

Countless posts on doom.
Does the guy with 25000 Ripple at 84c care
Does the guy who has 100 BTC at $1 care.

We all agree it’s madness.
No matter how many posts on madness you put up
It is what it is.
97% sit back and reinforce each other with why they don’t want to be in the madness
That the other 3% think is just fine.

Like pretty well all opportunities in life.

When you’ve been involved in enough madness over the years you’ll find the rarefied air is refreshing even exhilarating.

Like jumping out of a plane. Few do it but those who do experience something only they can articulate.
97% would NEVER contemplate jumping out af a perfectly good bank account.


----------



## HelloU

Smurf1976 said:


> All up cryptocurrencies are now valued at around USD 700 billion.
> 
> That's equivalent to the entire global oil industry's production for 4 months.
> 
> Or it's 0.9% of the whole world's annual GDP.
> 
> It's more than the market cap of any airline or car manufacturer.
> 
> And so on.
> 
> Given that even "blue collar" workers such as excavator operators and truck drivers are now casually talking about this during lunch breaks it sure looks like a mania to me.
> 
> It reminds me very much of the dot.com bubble. The internet had ongoing value most certainly but half baked business models producing no revenue with stocks trading at ridiculous prices sure didn't.




In a world where we use 'regular' money to send heavily armed warships across the world to destroy other peoples 'drugs' whilst at the same time opening up export markets for our own 'drugs', and use 'regular' money to fly people around the world in oil burning aircraft so that they can attend climate change conferences that advocate a reduction in the use of fossil fuels, or where we have CFD's and hedges and naked shorts..........I think crypto can somehow find a home in that world for those that choose to be involved.


----------



## luutzu

Value Collector said:


> Buffett says he would buy 5year puts on cryptos if he could, so he is obviously thinking they are going to crash
> 
> https://www.google.com.au/amp/s/www...rrencies-will-almost-certainly-end-badly.html




Buffett: I get into enough trouble with things I know about. Why in the world would I want to get into things I don't know much about.

Great line.


----------



## moXJO

tech/a said:


> Ho hum
> 
> Countless posts on doom.
> Does the guy with 25000 Ripple at 84c care
> Does the guy who has 100 BTC at $1 care.
> 
> We all agree it’s madness.
> No matter how many posts on madness you put up
> It is what it is.
> 97% sit back and reinforce each other with why they don’t want to be in the madness
> That the other 3% think is just fine.
> 
> Like pretty well all opportunities in life.
> 
> When you’ve been involved in enough madness over the years you’ll find the rarefied air is refreshing even exhilarating.
> 
> Like jumping out of a plane. Few do it but those who do experience something only they can articulate.
> 97% would NEVER contemplate jumping out af a perfectly good bank account.



Day traders are in on the action as well and loving it. 50% swings on some coins in a day or 2 and no wonder.


----------



## moXJO

luutzu said:


> Buffett: I get into enough trouble with things I know about. Why in the world would I want to get into things I don't know much about.
> 
> Great line.



Keeps out of medical, science and technology stocks then I suppose.


----------



## tech/a

luutzu said:


> Buffett: I get into enough trouble with things I know about. Why in the world would I want to get into things I don't know much about.
> 
> Great line.




That just shows how innovative Buffett is. *Rating ZERO.*

If everyone had that attitude the human race would still be making fires with sticks.
So Elon Musk is a complete idiot!
Richard Branson was born with Airline Expertise.

*Why in the world would I want to get into things I don't know much about.

To be one of the first
To be a trail blazer
To LEARN
To be an innovator
To be a leader.
*
Buffett the common mans hero.
Good thing those who lead innovation aren't COMMON


----------



## moXJO

Heres a link to Buffetts portfolio  (supposedly).
http://warrenbuffettstockportfolio.com/index.html
Lota banks, eww mosanto the evil and he still is in coke?


----------



## luutzu

tech/a said:


> That just shows how innovative Buffett is. *Rating ZERO.*
> 
> If everyone had that attitude the human race would still be making fires with sticks.
> So Elon Musk is a complete idiot!
> Richard Branson was born with Airline Expertise.
> 
> *Why in the world would I want to get into things I don't know much about.
> 
> To be one of the first
> To be a trail blazer
> To LEARN
> To be an innovator
> To be a leader.
> *
> Buffett the common mans hero.
> Good thing those who lead innovation aren't COMMON




Investors don't need to be innovative. Just be knowledgeable.

We can all take a punt and have a speculation here and there. Graham talk about it, maybe, from memory, even suggest it's not a bad thing to speculate.

Just when speculating, do it with money you can afford to lose.


Investing as in the allocation of capital... that's very different from being entrepreneurial. Different job description.

There are "angel" investor, venture capitalist who backed entrepreneurs. And no, they're not always the government using public money.

Musk and Branson are good salesman. That's not saying they're not clever... but a different kind of clever, not the technologist or airline/music/car manufacturing/space explorer they're made out to be.

Look at Nikola Tesla or Thomas Edison or Ford or Disney... They're enterprising pioneers. They're not investors. The investor that eventually bring those vision to the mass market, they're not the innovative kind either - just seeing value and profit from their investment.


----------



## luutzu

moXJO said:


> Heres a link to Buffetts portfolio  (supposedly).
> http://warrenbuffettstockportfolio.com/index.html
> Lota banks, eww mosanto the evil and he still is in coke?




Coke is a lot more than its secret formula and cool good taste. Heck, I prefer Sarsi to coke any day. 

From that list, seems Buffett is into technology. 

And into banking and insurance in a big way. You can't tell me banks and insurers aren't innovative. I mean, look at some of the rubbish they managed to create, packaged and sell.


----------



## luutzu

moXJO said:


> Keeps out of medical, science and technology stocks then I suppose.




Keep out of it if the investor know nothing about it. 

That's just common sense.


----------



## tech/a

moXJO said:


> Heres a link to Buffetts portfolio  (supposedly).
> http://warrenbuffettstockportfolio.com/index.html
> Lota banks, eww mosanto the evil and he still is in coke?




Got Apple but that's about it!

Don't see too many of these on his list.

http://fortune.com/2014/06/02/top-stocks-500/



luutzu said:


> Investors don't need to be innovative. Just be knowledgeable.
> 
> We can all take a punt and have a speculation here and there. Graham talk about it, maybe, from memory, even suggest it's not a bad thing to speculate.
> 
> Just when speculating, do it with money you can afford to lose.
> 
> 
> Investing as in the allocation of capital... that's very different from being entrepreneurial. Different job description.
> 
> There are "angel" investor, venture capitalist who backed entrepreneurs. And no, they're not always the government using public money.
> 
> Musk and Branson are good salesman. That's not saying they're not clever... but a different kind of clever, not the technologist or airline/music/car manufacturing/space explorer they're made out to be.
> 
> Look at Nikola Tesla or Thomas Edison or Ford or Disney... They're enterprising pioneers. They're not investors. The investor that eventually bring those vision to the mass market, they're not the innovative kind either - just seeing value and profit from their investment.





Id accept that if Buffett weren't sprouting off like an expert in the field that Crypto technology is just another tech type bubble.

For someone who doesn't know anything on the topic he is making statements that indicate he is---at least in his stance.


----------



## luutzu

tech/a said:


> Got Apple but that's about it!
> 
> Don't see too many of these on his list.
> 
> http://fortune.com/2014/06/02/top-stocks-500/
> 
> 
> 
> 
> Id accept that if Buffett weren't sprouting off like an expert in the field that Crypto technology is just another tech type bubble.
> 
> For someone who doesn't know anything on the topic he is making statements that indicate he is---at least in his stance.




Crypto is, like any asset (financial instrument?) on the rise, is great for those who were smart or lucky enough to get in early (and are either out completely or out to make enough profit on their initial investment).

For everyone else, there's hope and prayers.

But who knows. It might eventually develop into something with actual assets and cash flow backing it. Until it does, it make more sense to buy a $1M property in Western Sydney today thinking it's a safe investment with nothing but upsides.


----------



## Smurf1976

luutzu said:


> Read on Reuters that US companies double or triple their market cap by simply changing their company name to have Bitcoin or crypto etc. in it.




Exactly the same as when all sorts of companies added “.com” to their name in 1999 or early 2000.

The similarities between the crypto boom and the late 1990’s dot.com boom are incredible. It’s the same scenario in practically every way.


----------



## moXJO

Smurf1976 said:


> Exactly the same as when all sorts of companies added “.com” to their name in 1999 or early 2000.
> 
> The similarities between the crypto boom and the late 1990’s dot.com boom are incredible. It’s the same scenario in practically every way.



Fear and greed. God bless humans....

I traded through the tech wreck. Made a mint then as well. Buffett said the exact same thing back then as well: "its going to crash". I think it was 1 year later from when he said it that the whole thing imploded.
The true believers were all smashed. The guys that got in early made bank. And hordes of people missed out completely.
I still remember one of my workers saying get into gold its heaps cheap. $200 or $400 it was around that price.
Awesome times back then.


----------



## moXJO

luutzu said:


> Crypto is, like any asset (financial instrument?) on the rise, is great for those who were smart or lucky enough to get in early (and are either out completely or out to make enough profit on their initial investment).
> 
> For everyone else, there's hope and prayers.
> 
> But who knows. It might eventually develop into something with actual assets and cash flow backing it. Until it does, it make more sense to buy a $1M property in Western Sydney today thinking it's a safe investment with nothing but upsides.




It needs to crash before it develops into something usable imo.

Generally these bubbles go like this.
First in you can be a dumb $hit.

Once it starts running, be on whats popular. And getting informed/ spreading money on the second tier investments

Once it looks too stupid to enter trade the corrections.
The longer you wait the more knowledgeable  you have to be imo. Or you get caught. 

I'm more interested in where everyone is going to jump after this pops


----------



## notting

Whilst my ears are always happy to hear a good quack.
I do think it is most appropriate, at this point of time, to be running around like a terrified chicken amidst the cryptogalactica.

Two of the major exchanges have massive back logs of people trying to open up accounts to get in on the action, these late comers are the ones who will get burned so it needs a bit of cooling, hopefully some listen to the chaos in the coupe.

Which isn't to say that I am not a a chicken at heart.


----------



## SuperGlue

The way the Australian make is going, banking stock not going anywhere, I wonder how many investors/traders have pulled out funds from the share market into crypto currencies.

I sure did, about 15% into crypto currencies.


----------



## skyQuake

luutzu said:


> Until it does, it make more sense to buy a $1M property in Western Sydney today thinking it's a safe investment with nothing but upsides.




Thats actually an interesting question. Which ones the bigger bubble?


----------



## moXJO

luutzu said:


> Keep out of it if the investor know nothing about it.
> 
> That's just common sense.



Thats pretty broad though. You can understand what they are trying to achieve. And have a general knowledge of the product and why it might benefit. You can also just invest in bull trends.

Pretty sure he ain't that dumb not to understand cryptocoin. Just why would you when you can move entire markets or companies. He doesn't need to make it. He already made it.

He didn't get rich from investing chump change. The guy is an investment genius who had big money at his disposal early on.
 I'd still be a poor bastard till 60 if I kept following his method, just due to starting capital. I was lucky enough to realize a while back.


----------



## luutzu

moXJO said:


> Thats pretty broad though. You can understand what they are trying to achieve. And have a general knowledge of the product and why it might benefit. You can also just invest in bull trends.
> 
> Pretty sure he ain't that dumb not to understand cryptocoin. Just why would you when you can move entire markets or companies. He doesn't need to make it. He already made it.
> 
> He didn't get rich from investing chump change. The guy is an investment genius who had big money at his disposal early on.
> I'd still be a poor bastard till 60 if I kept following his method, just due to starting capital. I was lucky enough to realize a while back.




I don't know what his method really is. I mean I can guess it from his and Graham's writing, but can't be sure.

But from what I gathered, it boils down to understanding the business you're investing in. Know its earning power. Don't overpay. 

I don't think I've ever known everything there is to know about any of my investment. I just know "enough".. .I guess that's the same as what you mean by understanding what the company is trying to achieve, its general operations etc. 

Knowing enough and putting a margin of safety on top seem to work well in most cases. But of course businesses rarely sell for "reasonable" when they have most things going for it. Guess that's where being patience (and lucky) comes into play.


Yea, I've missed out on a fair number of opportunities sticking too closely to the quality at a fair price approach. 

The market do get crazy and as you say, if we're in on it early enough we might ride it to a fortune. Problem with that though, is luck or being early are often in hindsight. 

Having a small capital base, I think it's safer, or at least for me anyway... to play it safe and wait for opportunities that's quite obvious. The wait could take a long time and money sitting around isn't a good use of it... but that's better than having it sitting in someone else's account though.

I do speculate... trying to get rich faster a bit. Doing intelligent due diligence and risk capital where the upside could be life-changing. Let's just say that I'll most likely to run out of speculative cash for quite a while on that bet


----------



## luutzu

skyQuake said:


> Thats actually an interesting question. Which ones the bigger bubble?




Depends. 

I think the OZ property market is currently valued at some $5.5Trillion? 

The world's crypto currencies I don't think is at $1T yet. 

So in that context, property is bigger.

But then property is worth something... Crypto, I don' t know. Could be worth zero. 
If something that's practically zero could be worth in the hundreds of billions, maybe it is a bigger bubble.

OZ property going to halve and there'll be buyers.


----------



## moXJO

South korea just ban crypto trading.


----------



## overhang

This still has legs to run, the dot com boom capped out at $6.7 trillion before the burst, crypto is currently at $700 billion.  Furthermore the dot com boom being the NASDAQ was a somewhat isolated market, your average joe outside of the States wasn't putting money in but with crypto it's a global event.



moXJO said:


> South korea just ban crypto trading.




And this is why the crypto market is so volatile, it only took 1 misinformed article to send the market crashing.  This is why I don't use stops in crypto because it can crash and recover too fast.


----------



## notting

I use cheeky buy and sell orders usually thinking 'yeah right, as if'  they always get filled!


----------



## moXJO

overhang said:


> This still has legs to run, the dot com boom capped out at $6.7 trillion before the burst, crypto is currently at $700 billion.  Furthermore the dot com boom being the NASDAQ was a somewhat isolated market, your average joe outside of the States wasn't putting money in but with crypto it's a global event.
> 
> 
> 
> And this is why the crypto market is so volatile, it only took 1 misinformed article to send the market crashing.  This is why I don't use stops in crypto because it can crash and recover too fast.




I think the misinformation is purposely done.


----------



## moXJO

Some big swings in some of these coins today trx up 59% lend up 42%. Good trades on the smaller stuff. 
Thats not a recommendation to buy these coins.


----------



## noirua

noirua said:


> Blockchain - Gold Backed Crypto Currency - Mastercard -  Visa
> 
> - Http://www.goldbloc.com - Https://contrarianinvestor.net/posts/2017/12/13/will-lionsgold-exploit-the-blockchain-revolution
> 
> GOLDBLOC: Https://twitter.com/hashtag/Goldbloc?src=hash





Don't miss Goldbloc - Gold backed crypto currency


----------



## Value Collector

moXJO said:


> Heres a link to Buffetts portfolio  (supposedly).
> http://warrenbuffettstockportfolio.com/index.html
> Lota banks, eww mosanto the evil and he still is in coke?



That is just his shares, he owns about 80 other wholly owned companies eg the railways, insurance, energy, precision cast part etc etc

And I think Monsanto was just an arbitrage


----------



## notting

Imagine what cryptos will do if there is a US debt cap spending shutdown of some sort.  It normally never happens but if Dems are mad enough about the tax reform being forced through and Trump in general, who knows!


----------



## So_Cynical

Goldbloc - thats my idea cept i thought silver would be easier.


----------



## swisadv

Can anyone recommend a secure and reliable exchange for purchasing cryptocurrencies that allows purchases to be made in AUD?


----------



## moXJO

swisadv said:


> Can anyone recommend a secure and reliable exchange for purchasing cryptocurrencies that allows purchases to be made in AUD?



Btc markets is pretty good never had a problem. About $8k withdrawal a day or more for one offs. Fees are reasonable. Some of the others rort you on the spread, then on the fees.
www.btcmarkets.net


----------



## swisadv

moXJO said:


> Btc markets is pretty good never had a problem. About $8k withdrawal a day or more for one offs. Fees are reasonable. Some of the others rort you on the spread, then on the fees.
> www.btcmarkets.net



Thanks! Any problems with the major banks transferring money into BTC accounts?


----------



## Wysiwyg

How do people do TA on the cryptocurrencies. Charts I have seen are basic line type.


----------



## Wysiwyg

> Of all of the ICO’s that I have been a part of, Titanium stands second to none. The methods for investing are simple, refined and smooth. The support team is on point and extremely responsive. I’d be very proud to be part of this team. Way to go, Titanium!
> 
> *Tyler Durden*



Wondering if it is the Tyler Durden that is a member of ASF.


----------



## moXJO

swisadv said:


> Thanks! Any problems with the major banks transferring money into BTC accounts?



I think it was bpay. Didn't have any problems.


----------



## moXJO

Wysiwyg said:


> Wondering if it is the Tyler Durden that is a member of ASF.



Popular handle. Wasn't it the character out of 'fight club'?


----------



## Faramir

Can I go off track from the above few posts or maybe off-topic for a minute?

Can't remember if this point has been raised before?

The number of SPAM or JUNK emails relating to Bitcoin has dramatically increased over the past 3-4 months. These SPAM emails have always been around but there has been a massive increase recently. Even pr0n, get-rich-quick, etc emails are very far and few in between but Bitcoin, etc emails are flowing in consistently. I do not look at the Bitcoin emails but there are heaps of them.

It is criminals looking suckers. I personally think that the end is nigh for Bitcoin by this increase of emails - it looks like a desperate attempt to get more suckers.

I admit I know very little about Bitcoin but the increase of SPAM emails feels like it is telling me something.


----------



## SuperGlue

Wysiwyg said:


> How do people do TA on the cryptocurrencies. Charts I have seen are basic line type.




Can try Yahoo Finance.
Quotes are in USD.

Or use Amiquote to download for Amibroker charting.

eg.
LTC-USD, BTC-USD, XMR-USD, ETH-USD, DOGE-USD, XRP-USD, etc, etc......


----------



## CanOz

Investing.com has great free charts, very handy app. Real-time as well.


----------



## CanOz

I was chatting to a mate last night, ex-propex trader, he had recently visited a Sydney prop firm to see thier crypto desk. According to what he saw and discussed the prop guys are in this big and it's not in the futures. They've got guys trading the actual coins on Korean exchanges. They've even got thier own depth of market (dom) custom built for this stuff. He said they're scalping for 10-50 ticks and absolutely smashing it....old school, just levels, spoofing, just like the old days before algoes. No spread trading, just outright directional. He's also doing something with it as well as he had his own ladder built for the Chinese commodities markets...will be trading in the crypto space in a matter of weeks....


----------



## moXJO

CanOz said:


> I was chatting to a mate last night, ex-propex trader, he had recently visited a Sydney prop firm to see thier crypto desk. According to what he saw and discussed the prop guys are in this big and it's not in the futures. They've got guys trading the actual coins on Korean exchanges. They've even got thier own depth of market (dom) custom built for this stuff. He said they're scalping for 10-50 ticks and absolutely smashing it....old school, just levels, spoofing, just like the old days before algoes. No spread trading, just outright directional. He's also doing something with it as well as he had his own ladder built for the Chinese commodities markets...will be trading in the crypto space in a matter of weeks....



How do they get the money out of Korean trades? 
I thought there were some kind of rules about getting money out of Korea.


----------



## notting

Obviously the Russians would have been using Cryptocurrency to move funds around and circumvent sanctions.  No suprise that now it has been smashed down about 40%, some are trying to get it up again with 'news breaks' of their own!




Being in a US shutdown environment should have helped cryptos more than what has occurred if they were still in the crazy zone.


----------



## jacobgezer

is anyone trade btc with leverage? or buying and selling from exchanges?


----------



## moXJO

notting said:


> Obviously the Russians would have been using Cryptocurrency to move funds around and circumvent sanctions.  No suprise that now it has been smashed down about 40%, some are trying to get it up again with 'news breaks' of their own!
> 
> View attachment 85837
> 
> 
> Being in a US shutdown environment should have helped cryptos more than what has occurred if they were still in the crazy zone.



Russia and North Korea both were heavy in coins. 
The deep conspiracy derp said the US pushed for the crash just to shove it up the Russians and NK.


----------



## satanoperca

moXJO said:


> Russia and North Korea both were heavy in coins.
> The deep conspiracy derp said the US pushed for the crash just to shove it up the Russians and NK.




Really, the USA cannot even get their finances in order, last I checked they were in shutdown. If anything it is Russia who is laughing at the US.

Go Donald, you can make a deal and close down the US for at least 12weeks, giving you time to build that beautiful wall you promised as long as a cute looking lady doesn't walk by and you get distracted.


----------



## moXJO

Actually Russians are up the creek. Putin losing power as well. Younger generation is over him. Sanctions are hurting them.


----------



## mjim

CanOz said:


> I was chatting to a mate last night, ex-propex trader, he had recently visited a Sydney prop firm to see thier crypto desk. According to what he saw and discussed the prop guys are in this big and it's not in the futures. They've got guys trading the actual coins on Korean exchanges. They've even got thier own depth of market (dom) custom built for this stuff. He said they're scalping for 10-50 ticks and absolutely smashing it....old school, just levels, spoofing, just like the old days before algoes. No spread trading, just outright directional. He's also doing something with it as well as he had his own ladder built for the Chinese commodities markets...will be trading in the crypto space in a matter of weeks....



so trading actual coins that would be OTC product correct? pr trading Crypto currency futures 1) Bitmex? which is a Republic of Seychelles incorporated entity! 2) *Cboe/CFE:*  symbol GXBT or3) *CME:* symbol BRR?  by the way on CME and CBOE there are Calender spreads also in these but not sure why I can't see any volume on these exchange traded spreads? there is volume on individual legs


----------



## skyQuake

Definitely not the futs - Illiquid garbage.
BitMex does vol, BTCBox and a few of the JP exchanges do vol and charge no comm for now


----------



## CanOz

Trading technologies will be offering crypto trading on coin base through gdax starting in March! 

https://www.tradingtechnologies.com...40e&esid=35a0efd6-3901-e811-8134-e0071b6a4121


----------



## noirua

noirua said:


> Don't miss Goldbloc - Gold backed crypto currency





Lionsgold have now bought a 12.5% stake in RailsBank for £1.25m (AU$1.6m).
Lionsgold, LION CEO Cameron Parry plans to co-invest £125,000 in Railsbank for 1.25% on the same terms as the Company and TRAC Technology CEO Ralph Hazell plans to co-invest £50,000 in Railsbank for a 0.5% equity stake.
https://uk.advfn.com/stock-market/l...mited-Proposed-Investment-Goldbloc-B/76502242


----------



## mjim

CanOz said:


> Trading technologies will be offering crypto trading on coin base through gdax starting in March!
> 
> https://www.tradingtechnologies.com/news/trading-technologies-and-coinbase-announce-a-first-of-its-kind-bridge-between-the-futures-and-cryptocurrency-markets/?_cldee=c3RlcGhlbi5lcmljLmFzaEBnbWFpbC5jb20=&recipientid=contact-4f945ff154bee511bf44005056be005e-56c635973bac4836be4f0edbc1d0940e&esid=35a0efd6-3901-e811-8134-e0071b6a4121



Yes heard that by the way the CBOE Futures contract is based on GDAX? becasue TT talks about a synthetic arb spread!


----------



## satanoperca

Ouch, but for all the believers in crypto currencies good luck, just hold, surely it will bounce back.


----------



## brty

On the 15th of December I wrote the following...

"On the topic for a change, my SIL that has not a clue about markets asked me about Bitcoin today. This is a red flag for me as the only other investment she has ever made was buying Telstra at $9 totally against my advice, because her best friend told her to.
When the mania has reached the level of non investing people, there are not many suckers left."

In the 6 weeks since then, the main crypto I follow, Ripple, went from about $1 to 90c, then boomed up to $4.80, now back to $1.02 as of right now.
Bitcoin, worth over $A23,000 is now $A10,690.

Since the middle of December there have been quite a few requests from punters wanting to know which is the best place to buy coins/trade coins on this thread.

For me a 'currency' is something that tends to hold its value and is widely exchanged for goods and services.
A few weeks ago there was a story of a person in Melbourne that accepted Bitcoins in exchange for the sale of a property. Bitcoin was trading at around $A18,000 at the time.


----------



## notting

brty said:


> A few weeks ago there was a story of a person in Melbourne that accepted Bitcoins in exchange for the sale of a property. Bitcoin was trading at around $A18,000 at the time.



That guy was a Chinese fuc$ trying to avoid capital gains by selling the gains in crypto, He wasn't selling the whole house for Cryptos.


----------



## moXJO

brty said:


> In the 6 weeks since then, the main crypto I follow, Ripple, went from about $1 to 90c, then boomed up to $4.80, now back to $1.02 as of right now.
> .



Stupid ripple.
20 cents more and I would have been all out,  driving away in my Ferrari. Now all I can afford is a lowly Mercedes. 
Ferrari make a family sedan, right?


----------



## tech/a

Some very clever people on this site!
Thanks for sharing!

Seriously considering some more Ripple.


----------



## notting

It was a very interesting night of trading.
The cryptos had 'the everything,' including the kitchen sink, tossed at them by the media and establishment.
Then, of course, whilst the Super Bowl is on, time for a spanking by the manipulators.
Then, the yanks woke up, they started buying it back up to the recent support level, before the entire financial system looked to correct, for the first time since 2016.
During that frenzy the cryptos had recovered what looked like may have been a dot com crash and held their ground.
Maybe, there is something technical in that. 
I think 10 years on from the financial crisis it's unlikely that people were seeking cryptos as the alternate place for their cash whilst the market tipped over.
The theme is blurry, it really should have been 'the end' of the bit coin.
Perhaps it's just that it's a small enough market for the Illumitardies to be able to maintain their belief in it and thus keep it going.
Just going to be trading on the frenzy unless someone has a better idea!


----------



## moXJO

notting said:


> It was a very interesting night of trading.
> The cryptos had 'the everything,' including the kitchen sink, tossed at them by the media and establishment.
> Then, of course, whilst the Super Bowl is on, time for a spanking by the manipulators.
> Then, the yanks woke up, they started buying it back up to the recent support level, before the entire financial system looked to correct, for the first time since 2016.
> During that frenzy the cryptos had recovered what looked like may have been a dot com crash and held their ground.
> Maybe, there is something technical in that.
> I think 10 years on from the financial crisis it's unlikely that people were seeking cryptos as the alternate place for their cash whilst the market tipped over.
> The theme is blurry, it really should have been 'the end' of the bit coin.
> Perhaps it's just that it's a small enough market for the Illumitardies to be able to maintain their belief in it and thus keep it going.
> Just going to be trading on the frenzy unless someone has a better idea!



All you can trade on is the fear and greed scale. And we must be moving from the fear bottom soon. Not much news about.

I jumped on some ripple ($1). Based on nothing much but feel, my star sign and a spare 10 k.
Either going to lose $2k or make $5k.
Still holding the bulk of my other coins.


----------



## moXJO

Actually there is a few good news stories of xrp coming out.


----------



## CanOz

Chart of the more popular "coins" and relative performance


----------



## CanOz

Interesting.....


----------



## notting

Behaving like a high risk asset should.
What was interesting to me, was that the crypto capitulation preempted the US melt down and was stable to positive the whole way through the real price action.
Thre other events to note, Super Bowl distraction, Trump memo and most importantly the 10 year yeild went up through 2.80 which is when the market really took a pounding.


----------



## notting

It's consistent with the theory that Bitcoin is completely manipulated now, it was tanked on low volumes whilst the US was distracted by the above and before the US woke up then bought all the volume selling as US kicked into gear. Pattern has been confirmed again!


----------



## CanOz

I'm more curious about how this contagion is intertwined and where the flows are going...m


----------



## notting

Well I gave one theme.
Europe has been the buzz word and so flows to Euro, hence week US$.
Great time to repatriate cash however, good move USA USA.
If rates at 2.8 are worthy of a 666 spanking WTF! Taper tantrum?
I don't know getten a leg over 5 is normally a little more appropriate.
Unless everyone is sickly *OVER LEVERAGED *
disclaimer - this isn't really a post, I'm just thinking out aloud.


----------



## waterbottle

CanOz said:


> I'm more curious about how this contagion is intertwined and where the flows are going...m




I agree. There was $800 billion USD invested into the crypto market at its peak in Jan 2018, according to coinmarketcap.com. That money needs to come from somewhere, and if some were using credit cards to fund their purchases, with others selling their investment properties, it wouldn't surprise me if equities were being sold off to do the same.


----------



## scholesy

CanOz said:


> I was chatting to a mate last night, ex-propex trader, he had recently visited a Sydney prop firm to see thier crypto desk. According to what he saw and discussed the prop guys are in this big and it's not in the futures. They've got guys trading the actual coins on Korean exchanges. They've even got thier own depth of market (dom) custom built for this stuff. He said they're scalping for 10-50 ticks and absolutely smashing it....old school, just levels, spoofing, just like the old days before algoes. No spread trading, just outright directional. He's also doing something with it as well as he had his own ladder built for the Chinese commodities markets...will be trading in the crypto space in a matter of weeks....




There is a shocking amount of arbitrage available in the crypto exchanges from what I've seen. But requires deep pools of capital, excellent risk management (converting to fiat as soon as possible and not holding the bag when the market drops 20% overnight) and accounts at multiple exchanges (includes decentralised ones). By any chance, are you referring to Star Beta? They seem to be the only legit shop in crypto. But they are only doing crypto futures based on their website.


----------



## tech/a

The *BIG* holders in Crypto Currencies have been for Years
So these fluctuations are only hitting those who are just
hitting the scene. Sure there are some who have put the house on
it and lost heaps but don't think there is half the population
selling everything to keep the PPR.

Personally I think many are missing this point and rubbing their hands with glee as
Bitcoin drop 50%.
These guys with Billions frankly don't give two hoots about 1 billion or $500K.
They wouldn't spend it anyway they are geeks who look at money a whole
lot differently to most of us.


----------



## brty

Waterbottle, this statement shows a lack of understanding of markets.....

"There was $800 billion USD invested into the crypto market at its peak in Jan 2018, according to coinmarketcap.com. That money needs to come from somewhere"

The Market Cap of all the cryptos was $US800b, definitely not the amount of money invested in it. When the price fell, it was just because there were more eager sellers than buyers. A couple of hundred million dollars worth of trades could have reduced the overall Market Cap from the $US800b to $US300b. 

I actually have no idea of the volumes traded, but a $US500b or whatever the reduction was in total MC certainly does NOT mean that much came out of the market.


----------



## tech/a

Totally agree BRTY
While there is more Brokers selling Crypto Currency
Mine BTC are pretty active.

Check out the turn over in the last 180 days and there has been
Massive fluctuations.
So clearly the big holders haven't been involved.


----------



## notting

Here's a tip -
From the face of crypto himself -






*Cryptocurrencies ‘could drop to near-zero at any time,’ Ethereum founder warns*

"If you're trying to figure out where to store your life savings, traditional assets are still your safest bet," Ethereum founder Vitalik Buterin said.
Buterin is one of many popular figures who has been impersonated on Twitter by scammers promoting questionable cryptocurrency offers.
The Ethereum co-founder warned users not to trust people offering cryptocurrency on Twitter.


----------



## Hasibul Hasan

I am a fx trader, i'v no idea about cryptocurrency can anyone give me suggestion?


----------



## greggles

Hasibul Hasan said:


> I am a fx trader, i'v no idea about cryptocurrency can anyone give me suggestion?



What sort of a suggestion are you looking for mate?


----------



## Wysiwyg

Ethereum Classic ETC/AUD copping a flogging. Where is the bottom.


----------



## Value Collector

Wysiwyg said:


> Ethereum Classic ETC/AUD copping a flogging. Where is the bottom.




Long term the bottom is Zero.


----------



## tech/a

As it gets closer (Zero) so the opportunity becomes apparent again.

Just when everyone is saying ---told you so would be the right time to buy I reckon.
It will come.


----------



## Value Collector

tech/a said:


> As it gets closer (Zero) so the opportunity becomes apparent again.
> 
> Just when everyone is saying ---told you so would be the right time to buy I reckon.
> It will come.




It will surely fluctuate, and I am not saying it can't be profitably traded for a while.

But what I am saying is that longterm, whether that be 2 years, 5 years or 10 years, the hype will be gone and they will be worth zero, permanently.

I have compared them to tulip bulbs, but even tulips look pretty and had a value outside the financial speculation, but I don't think this is true with the bulk of the cryptos, they will go to zero permanently soon enough.

you aren't trading a barrel of oil, ounce of gold or a part ownership in a profitable corporation or real estate so there is no real world floor to the price.


----------



## cclarkedi

notting said:


> Here's a tip -
> From the face of crypto himself -
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> *Cryptocurrencies ‘could drop to near-zero at any time,’ Ethereum founder warns*
> 
> "If you're trying to figure out where to store your life savings, traditional assets are still your safest bet," Ethereum founder Vitalik Buterin said.
> Buterin is one of many popular figures who has been impersonated on Twitter by scammers promoting questionable cryptocurrency offers.
> The Ethereum co-founder warned users not to trust people offering cryptocurrency on Twitter.




Yes, it is risky but anything that involves money making has risks. I think we don't have to be afraid of investing in new technologies.Traditional assets are safest way but not so profitable


----------



## noirua

So_Cynical said:


> Goldbloc - thats my idea cept i thought silver would be easier.




LionsGold Limited AIM:LION are presently suspended on AIM for about 3 to 4 months due to the 100% purchase of Trac Technology Limited.  AIM regulators have ruled this to be a reverse takeover.  Goldbloc is on track to be released by the end of June 2018 in the UK.  Early next year Goldbloc is set to be released in India.
https://www.lionsgold.com/investors...ieved-directorpdmr-holdings-2018-04-23-100317
https://www.lionsgold.com/divisions/fintech-gold

LION has additional gold mining interests in India and Finland.


----------



## greggles

*Bitcoin and cryptocurrency addicts offered treatment in the UK for the first time*


> A hospital in Scotland is treating people who are addicted to trading cryptocurrencies such as Bitcoin.
> 
> Castle Craig Hospital in Peeblesshire, the Scottish Borders, has created a course of residential treatment for "crypto addicts" to deal with the underlying issues and learn to live without it.
> 
> Experts say the trading of digital currencies or assets such as Bitcoin can become a behavioural addiction, similar to online gambling with some users obsessively following minute-by-minute fluctuations in prices.
> 
> The West Linton facility already runs drug and alcohol addiction programmes, but said it now treats cryptocurrency addiction by using techniques found in gambling addiction programmes.


----------



## Darc Knight

Bitcoin is a tad annoying. All these people with less market knowledge than me (and I know very little) making a fortune because they didn't understand or care about legislative risk.
I always thought Bitcoin would fall over due to Governments regulating it highly due to its criminal use.


----------



## greggles

Darc Knight said:


> I always thought Bitcoin would fall over due to Governments regulating it highly due to its criminal use.




I think this is coming too. In an age when governments are doing everything in their power to eliminate black markets, how much longer can they let the cryptocurrency market continue on unchecked?

There will be a crackdown eventually. The question is when.


----------



## traderace_mkt

Hasibul Hasan said:


> I am a fx trader, i'v no idea about cryptocurrency can anyone give me suggestion?



I see you have not mentioned what kind of suggestions you want; may I ask what sort of brokers you could be looking for? There are general fx brokers that allow crypto trading and there are also specific cryptocurrency brokers. If you are totally clueless about this market I suggest you start by doing a thorough research on the cryptocurrencies and blockchain before you think about trading since it is very volatile market with good opportunities to book huge profits. There are a lot of informative websites where you can learn about cryptocurrencies like ccn.com, cointelegraph, btcnews, coindesk,etc.


----------



## ASFscalp001

Hasibul Hasan said:


> I am a fx trader, i'v no idea about cryptocurrency can anyone give me suggestion?



Suggestion with regard to what? If you have absolutely no idea about c yptos then go online and read up on cryptocurrencies thoroughly


----------



## fiftyeight

Excluding BTC as apparently it is a store of wealth like gold, but doesnt Facebook Crypto show there is zero value in all the alt coins?

If crypto does go mainstream, the big players, FB, Google, Amazon...... will just build their own technology and release their own coins. I just dont get alt coins, maybe I am getting old


----------



## verce

Welcome to the future!



What an exciting time to be alive!


----------



## Kryzz

Took a long position in OMG/AUD today at $3.39...spec time!


----------



## Joules MM1

with the bid again today (cfd, btc/usd), this is an observation post about the sell on sunday, makes this thing a little harder to read (really? you ask?) there is a solid inversion ratio that gave me permission to take a fewa small sizes and there a re few stories in this since the larger swing high printed but it's all what-if's and what-they-did's so just taking the rotation que ......long-side liquidity is playing into different areas/instruments offering a strong expansion idea, the big sell ideas being bandied around currently are a bit tardis, so i can only go with what's printing, which across the board appears to be up

sunday sells rip out the weak longs and obvious stops - pretty much about reading intent as it is about technical ideas, where the MTM's are going to show their hand and (re-in)force the trend


----------



## Joules MM1

Joules MM1 said:


> with the bid again today (cfd, btc/usd), this is an observation post about the sell on sunday, makes this thing a little harder to read (really? you ask?) there is a solid inversion ratio that gave me permission to take a fewa small sizes and there a re few stories in this since the larger swing high printed but it's all what-if's and what-they-did's so just taking the rotation que ......long-side liquidity is playing into different areas/instruments offering a strong expansion idea, the big sell ideas being bandied around currently are a bit tardis, so i can only go with what's printing, which across the board appears to be up
> 
> sunday sells rip out the weak longs and obvious stops - pretty much about reading intent as it is about technical ideas, where the MTM's are going to show their hand and (re-in)force the trend




following on, more cues, 11400 fished, uncle point set, retail 80% bid top clients 92% bid (cfd)
below 11400 and we revisit at least 11100's


----------



## yellowbow

As of 2020 July 15, Wednesday current price of BTC is $9258.740 according to https://changehero.io/ exchange platform data. And their data indicates that the asset price has been in a downtrend for the past 1 year. It is a good time to purchase BTC.


----------



## grah33

is it just a matter of going somewhere like coin base or other exchange, and easily enough buying a PART of a bitcoin, say 1k?  it' s not like currency where you gotta use leverage right, but more like a share (no debt)?


----------



## qldfrog

grah33 said:


> is it just a matter of going somewhere like coin base or other exchange, and easily enough buying a PART of a bitcoin, say 1k?  it' s not like currency where you gotta use leverage right, but more like a share (no debt)?



I use BTCmarkets.net , you transfer money then buy bitcoin..easy
During that phase, you are exposed if the exchange collapses or get hacked, so once you have bought your bitcoin, i i recomme you transfer them to a usb ledger, a physical one
Start with a small amount and imho, do not bet the farm on this would be my "advice"
There is no bitcoin bitcoin  if you loose your key password etc...or transfer to the wrong person.
It is still a non user friendly pretty technical environment


----------



## wayneL

Ether a solid breakout over 400? Or another headfake?


----------



## qldfrog

wayneL said:


> Ether a solid breakout over 400? Or another headfake?



Btc has been faring quite well this year as i see it


----------



## wayneL

qldfrog said:


> Btc has been faring quite well this year as i see it



I've got BTC as well, but Ether seems to be leading the price action of late.

There seems to be lots of arguments about both instruments which I really don't quite 100% understand. Ether and the whole Etherium 2.0/Defi thing, Bitcoin and transactional costs and overall clunkiness.

I'll be a Bitcoin HODLer (I think), but keeping hold of Ether for now as well.


----------



## fiftyeight

wayneL said:


> Ether a solid breakout over 400? Or another headfake?




My buy stop order at $400 looks better than expected this am!!!

I have dipped my toe in to crypto over the last few months.

This place gives you HUGE margin. I have just started playing around with @Skate BBO system he posted. 

https://www.kraken.com/

And this is a good way to automate the purchase on some kind of schedule

https://www.getamber.io/


----------



## noirua

Bitcoin Trading View Chart:


			https://www.tradingview.com/x/pU3lKAmU/


----------



## kenny

What does everyone look for in a crypto exchange esp here in Australia?


----------



## noirua

Bitcoin relief rally is underway — Can BTC price reclaim $18K?
					

Bitcoin price is rallying this weekend but is this just a relief rally or can BTC regain bullish momentum?




					cointelegraph.com
				




Bitcoin’s price frequently takes the staircase up and the elevator down. When this happens, the daily timeframe marks the crucial support levels to hold, through which the zone around $16,000 is a massive area to hold.


----------



## noirua

Bitcoin analysts explain what's next in the aftermath of BTC plunging to $16.2K
					

Analysts and traders discuss both bull and bear cases for Bitcoin after BTC's sudden price crash to $16,200




					cointelegraph.com
				




A pseudonymous trader known as “Byzantine General” noted that the liquidity for Bitcoin is now in the $17,500 to $19,000 range. Liquidity emerges when traders in the futures market sway to one side of the market. Since the liquidity is higher up, it indicates that traders are likely shorting BTC and the liquidation prices of overleveraged shorts are located around $18,000.


----------



## noirua

Bitcoin and Ethereum: https://cointelegraph.com/news/no-need-to-fear-the-bitcoin-fud-says-sino-global-capital


----------



## noirua

Why Bitcoin price has not hit a new all-time high — Just yet
					

Bitcoin price has rallied to new highs on multiple exchanges but it’s yet to break its December 2017 all-time high at Coinbase.




					cointelegraph.com


----------



## noirua

__





						Bloomberg - Are you a robot?
					





					www.bloomberg.com
				



The Bitcoin algorithm demands increasing amounts of computational power to validate transactions. If it were a country, its annualized estimated carbon footprint would be comparable to New Zealand at about 37 million tons of carbon dioxide. One Bitcoin transaction would generate the CO2 equivalent to 706,765 swipes of a Visa credit card, according to Digiconomist’s closely-followed index, albeit with none of the convenience of plastic. Add in Bitcoin’s primary use as a speculative instrument and the frequent regulatory warnings it draws, and it’s hard to imagine it ever scoring high on ESG.


----------



## kenny

noirua said:


> __
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> Bloomberg - Are you a robot?
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> www.bloomberg.com
> 
> 
> 
> 
> The Bitcoin algorithm demands increasing amounts of computational power to validate transactions. If it were a country, its annualized estimated carbon footprint would be comparable to New Zealand at about 37 million tons of carbon dioxide. One Bitcoin transaction would generate the CO2 equivalent to 706,765 swipes of a Visa credit card, according to Digiconomist’s closely-followed index, albeit with none of the convenience of plastic. Add in Bitcoin’s primary use as a speculative instrument and the frequent regulatory warnings it draws, and it’s hard to imagine it ever scoring high on ESG.




These comparisons between incumbent fiat transaction mechanisms and Bitcoin transactions highlighting the energy and environmental costs make me suspicious whether a true comparison is being made. For instance, whilst the BTC transaction uses significant compute and associated energy cost, there are no indirect costs beyond that. 

In the VISA transaction example, for the "swipe" to be processed, the energy/environmental cost of the infrastructure behind the scenes must be taken into account. The energy usage of the brick & mortar facility housing the employees performing the work, the associated costs of managing fraud, debt collection and identity verification for example.


----------



## noirua

Crypto Crime on the Rise — Good Odds of 2020 Becoming a Record-Breaker
					

Experts believe that a more holistic crypto ecosystem, especially one that is more AML-centric, is needed to help prevent the spread of crypto scams in 2020




					cointelegraph.com
				





> “Even in spite of the growing availability of privacy coins like Monero and Zcash, criminals continue to use Bitcoin because of the abundance of Bitcoin-to-fiat offramps. Banks and money service businesses should pay attention to high-risk transactions originating from BATMs that lack proper AML compliance.”


----------



## MLTraders

Guys all the kool kids wanna do the latest things like you wanted to play with yoyos, totem tennis etc. These days the young ones are on their phones all the time so it makes sense for them. But trading cryptos is the super hard end of the business the True Range for many cryptos is far higher than for the DOW, DAX only the HK50 is comparable. Check out the definition here. The https://www.investopedia.com/terms/a/atr.asp
The DOW, DAX true range probably only ever gets up to a max of 10, HK50 100 to 250 and bitcoin from 250-500. So your algos need to be very good to trade them. I have been developing ML based bots but also bots that use algos that make minimal assumptions about the direction of the markets, and they can trade on many different markets although the true range on currencies is very low so they are really hardly worth trading. I am looking for traders to evaluate my products, I would like to become a MAM or PAM broker.


----------



## MLTraders

greggles said:


> In a very real sense, all investing and trading is gambling. Even if you buy a blue chip for the long term, you are simply betting it will go up. You could be right, you could be wrong. Blue chips are simply the favourites while speccies are the long shots that pay out better. It's all still betting on an uncertain outcome. So, in the end it's just gambling. There are good gamblers and bad gamblers, just like there are good investors and bad investors.
> 
> Nothing wrong with having a punt.



But the return on the stock market is so low and slow now on blue chips. That is why trading indices etc is far better.


----------



## grah33

qldfrog said:


> I use BTCmarkets.net , you transfer money then buy bitcoin..easy
> During that phase, you are exposed if the exchange collapses or get hacked, so once you have bought your bitcoin, i i recomme you transfer them to a usb ledger, a physical one
> Start with a small amount and imho, do not bet the farm on this would be my "advice"
> There is no bitcoin bitcoin  if you loose your key password etc...or transfer to the wrong person.
> It is still a non user friendly pretty technical environment



"transfer them to a physical usb ledger", or something like that...  can u explain what's happening here?
i buy it and i get a key/password that i use . my coins are in the blockchain system right, rather than on a drive?  can i write down the password and hide it?

i guess old investors aren't too keen, but we're investing cause we think it's a great technology that should be adopted in the future


----------



## qldfrog

grah33 said:


> "transfer them to a physical usb ledger", or something like that...  can u explain what's happening here?
> i buy it and i get a key/password that i use . my coins are in the blockchain system right, rather than on a drive?  can i write down the password and hide it?
> 
> i guess old investors aren't too keen, but we're investing cause we think it's a great technology that should be adopted in the future



indeed, it is VERY easy to "buy" bitcoins and crypto currencies on BTC market or any other platform, but you do not have any key, you just buy and sell them, if anyone get into your account (finding your password or hacking into the platform, they can then transfer your crypto currencies (steal them) this has happened in other platforms in the past and what can you do then?
Same as banks, but cryptos are harder to track by law forces, and the crypto platform exchanges do not have the backbone of CBA or other banks: we can all reasonably assume that if NAB get hacked and your account is emptied, you will get your money back; not with BTC market or any of the others..
So I move some of my cryptos on a USB ledger.
Is it safer?
well it is at risk of thief, fire, physical loss, etc but that is my responsibility.
I would not keep sizeable amount of money under crypto form stored by a platform for too long;
Just my view, very open to discussion there
I would VERY MUCH like to be able to move my BTC in a safe repository: imagine, sending to UBS , against a yearly fee..I would jump on the opportunity, but would have to be a trusted bank in a trusted legislation (aka not Australia, EU or US of A)


----------



## grah33

qldfrog said:


> indeed, it is VERY easy to "buy" bitcoins and crypto currencies on BTC market or any other platform, but you do not have any key, you just buy and sell them, if anyone get into your account (finding your password or hacking into the platform, they can then transfer your crypto currencies (steal them) this has happened in other platforms in the past and what can you do then?
> Same as banks, but cryptos are harder to track by law forces, and the crypto platform exchanges do not have the backbone of CBA or other banks: we can all reasonably assume that if NAB get hacked and your account is emptied, you will get your money back; not with BTC market or any of the others..
> So I move some of my cryptos on a USB ledger.
> Is it safer?
> well it is at risk of thief, fire, physical loss, etc but that is my responsibility.
> I would not keep sizeable amount of money under crypto form stored by a platform for too long;
> Just my view, very open to discussion there
> I would VERY MUCH like to be able to move my BTC in a safe repository: imagine, sending to UBS , against a yearly fee..I would jump on the opportunity, but would have to be a trusted bank in a trusted legislation (aka not Australia, EU or US of A)



thanks for the warnings.


----------



## Warr87

Logged onto my server check on my EA's. surprised to see BTC continuing up pretty high. Those are pretty big bars (4H chart). ETH has gone up too, but not as clear trend from my chart. Interested to see how far BTC will go this time (now at $47k USD)

BTCUSD 4H


----------



## grah33

qldfrog said:


> indeed, it is VERY easy to "buy" bitcoins and crypto currencies on BTC market or any other platform, but you do not have any key, you just buy and sell them, if anyone get into your account (finding your password or hacking into the platform, they can then transfer your crypto currencies (steal them) this has happened in other platforms in the past and what can you do then?
> Same as banks, but cryptos are harder to track by law forces, and the crypto platform exchanges do not have the backbone of CBA or other banks: we can all reasonably assume that if NAB get hacked and your account is emptied, you will get your money back; not with BTC market or any of the others..
> So I move some of my cryptos on a USB ledger.
> Is it safer?
> well it is at risk of thief, fire, physical loss, etc but that is my responsibility.
> I would not keep sizeable amount of money under crypto form stored by a platform for too long;
> Just my view, very open to discussion there
> I would VERY MUCH like to be able to move my BTC in a safe repository: imagine, sending to UBS , against a yearly fee..I would jump on the opportunity, but would have to be a trusted bank in a trusted legislation (aka not Australia, EU or US of A)



i don't fully get how usb ledgers work

the computer runs a trusted program on the ledger to generate a key. this private key is stored on the usb ledger ...
but if you  lose your usb ledger, or the data gets jumbled somehow, how do you get the private key back??? it just seems better to have it down on paper or plastic paper  as well, and not just on a usb stick.


----------



## qldfrog

grah33 said:


> i don't fully get how usb ledgers work
> 
> the computer runs a trusted program on the ledger to generate a key. this private key is stored on the usb ledger ...
> but if you  lose your usb ledger, or the data gets jumbled somehow, how do you get the private key back??? it just seems better to have it down on paper or plastic paper  as well, and not just on a usb stick.



You also get a set of keywords you can use to rebuilt that key should your usb get damaged or lost.


----------



## Warr87

BTC fluttering at the $50k mark. Moving quickly around that mark (I suspect there is a bunch of buying/sell pressure at this point that is moving it above/below).

Interested to see where it goes from here (my SL is now at $46k)

BTCUSD 4H


----------



## grah33

Warr87 said:


> BTC fluttering at the $50k mark. Moving quickly around that mark (I suspect there is a bunch of buying/sell pressure at this point that is moving it above/below).
> 
> Interested to see where it goes from here (my SL is now at $46k)
> 
> BTCUSD 4H
> View attachment 120211



yeah, it's interesting alright .  wouldn't mind if it did drop.  get a chance to rebuy it at a better price


----------



## grah33

wel


qldfrog said:


> You also get a set of keywords you can use to rebuilt that key should your usb get damaged or lost.



after all those hours i learnt that i forgot to confirm through an email (or didn't see an email), but the transfer did go through in the end.  

it's kind of scary  doing transactions.  you'd like to do them and NOT transfer a test (small portion) out, to check your account works both ways.  That way u don't expose your private key until you need to use it. 

but now i'm spending heaps of hours trying to transfer this little bit out using software wallets (test the private key). unless 14 usd is too small ...  not sure what is up ...


----------



## basilio

I noted elsewhere that yesterday  while talking with my optometrist I discovered he (and his son) were waist deep into investing in crypto currency.

I've always believed these are essentially just big cons.  One could certainly make a big buck if you were on the right side of the con or sell but ...nah.

This story makes great reading for those considering a punt. But really  *Why are they getting away with it ?*

_Case in point: Adam's foray into DeTrade. The touted technology behind it wasn't real. Nothing about the project was. DeTrade, for all intents and purposes, didn't exist. The LinkedIn profiles were fake, and the video of its CEO was a deepfake created with AI. It was a scam. Those behind it, operating in the unregulated world of crypto, vanished. Adam lost his $2,500, but he got off easy. In total, those behind the scam took in around $2 million. 

Just a regular day playing with altcoins, says Adam._

_Million-dollar joke _​_Adam got into cryptocurrency in September. When we spoke, it felt like he'd crammed years of trading into two months. He put in $4,000 and lost it in days. Then he turned $3,000 into $90,000. After withdrawing a third of that and then losing just over another third, he now had around $20,000 in crypto. 

Adam had seen some tempestuous trading in recent weeks. One person managed to flip $2,000 into over $40,000 on two different occasions, but lost it all to scams both times. Another put $150 in a coin and doubled his money in 15 minutes. Decent result, but his $150 would've turned into $28,000 if he'd waited only one more day. _









						Forget Bitcoin: Inside the insane world of altcoin cryptocurrency trading
					

Many altcoins don't do anything, and some are scams. But average people are getting rich off them.




					www.cnet.com


----------



## basilio

I hadn't given much thought to crypto currency until yesterdays converesation with my optemtrist. But since then I have to say it looks like one gigantic, fast moving scam.

In that context I believe there could be a very quick blow off/crash across the crypto currency marketplace. So the next question is -

*What would be the impact of such a crash on more traditional security/financial  markets ?*  How  exposed is the banking system to  crypto currency  ? Are brokers who also handle shares likely to fall off the perch in such an event ?  What are the risks in the derivative market with these plays ?  At what stage, if ever, will the SEC or Central Banks challenge  the runaway madness of crypto currency and impose direct regulation ? 

This analysis examines some of these issues and raises further concerns.



			https://www.oliverwyman.com/content/dam/oliver-wyman/v2/publications/2018/april/Oliver-Wyman-Cryptocurrencies-Head-In-The-Sand-Is-Not-An-Option.pdf


----------



## moXJO

basilio said:


> I hadn't given much thought to crypto currency until yesterdays converesation with my optemtrist. But since then I have to say it looks like one gigantic, fast moving scam.
> 
> In that context I believe there could be a very quick blow off/crash across the crypto currency marketplace. So the next question is -
> 
> *What would be the impact of such a crash on more traditional security/financial  markets ?*  How  exposed is the banking system to  crypto currency  ? Are brokers who also handle shares likely to fall off the perch in such an event ?  What are the risks in the derivative market with these plays ?  At what stage, if ever, will the SEC or Central Banks challenge  the runaway madness of crypto currency and impose direct regulation ?
> 
> This analysis examines some of these issues and raises further concerns.
> 
> 
> 
> https://www.oliverwyman.com/content/dam/oliver-wyman/v2/publications/2018/april/Oliver-Wyman-Cryptocurrencies-Head-In-The-Sand-Is-Not-An-Option.pdf



Stop dissing Tulips.... errrr I mean crypto, stop dissing crypto.


----------



## grah33

basilio said:


> I hadn't given much thought to crypto currency until yesterdays converesation with my optemtrist. But since then I have to say it looks like one gigantic, fast moving scam.
> 
> In that context I believe there could be a very quick blow off/crash across the crypto currency marketplace. So the next question is -
> 
> *What would be the impact of such a crash on more traditional security/financial  markets ?*  How  exposed is the banking system to  crypto currency  ? Are brokers who also handle shares likely to fall off the perch in such an event ?  What are the risks in the derivative market with these plays ?  At what stage, if ever, will the SEC or Central Banks challenge  the runaway madness of crypto currency and impose direct regulation ?
> 
> This analysis examines some of these issues and raises further concerns.
> 
> 
> 
> https://www.oliverwyman.com/content/dam/oliver-wyman/v2/publications/2018/april/Oliver-Wyman-Cryptocurrencies-Head-In-The-Sand-Is-Not-An-Option.pdf



no impact. few players are in on it


----------



## grah33

i'm stuck.  i did a little bitcoin transfer to a paper wallet (another address ,my own practice address, i'll put it in the sayings field of this post ...).  the blockchain explorer registers this little amount of dollars.  and now i just can't seem to view it / swipe/import it on a software wallet . tried several of them.  i copied/pasted the private key, and also scanned it in.  the software doesn't register the little 15 usd value.  what's going on?  loosing so much time on this little detail ...

the problem suggests that the private key doesn't work or is wrong. i got a print out of it - side by side both QR codes, straight from printer, so the key must be correct.    maybe the amount of money is too small?  nah ... any ideas , anyone ?


----------



## grah33

Blockchain.com Explorer | BTC | ETH | BCH
					

The easiest and most trusted transaction search engine and block explorer.




					www.blockchain.com
				




link for blockchain explorer

(maybe if there was a conversion thing online, where you input the private key and it derives its  public key , for checking...)


----------



## grah33

just to update i've had some success  with other key pairs i got from  different websites, and various software wallets.

just disappointing that on mobile app (using this for testing) seems to hide the private key (after doing a sweep),  and then charge a fair bit for transfers.


----------



## moXJO

grah33 said:


> just to update i've had some success  with other key pairs i got from  different websites, and various software wallets.
> 
> just disappointing that on mobile app (using this for testing) seems to hide the private key (after doing a sweep),  and then charge a fair bit for tratransfers



what wallet were you using?


----------



## grah33

moXJO said:


> what wallet were you using?







__





						Account Suspended
					





					www.btcofficialwallet.org
				




this is where i generated the paper wallet with public address copied in my signature .  there is about 15 dollars there, and i have the private key, but can't seem to register it or withdraw it from electrum/other wallets.  They record no funds in it.  I'll try again soon.


----------



## qldfrog

grah33 said:


> __
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> Account Suspended
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> www.btcofficialwallet.org
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> this is where i generated the paper wallet with public address copied in my signature .  there is about 15 dollars there, and i have the private key, but can't seem to register it or withdraw it from electrum/other wallets.  They record no funds in it.  I'll try again soon.



A couple of years ago, i did use paper wallet and it worked but was cumbersome and easily error prone.i now used a usb like Ledger.
Dyor but i believe that is an easier way and reasonably safe


----------



## grah33

qldfrog said:


> A couple of years ago, i did use paper wallet and it worked but was cumbersome and easily error prone.i now used a usb like Ledger.
> Dyor but i believe that is an easier way and reasonably safe



I'm starting to think that as well.  u just hide the magical words.  I assume you can just derive them any time by googling the BIB protocol ...
dk but i think the usb ledger protects some memory spot that other programs can't touch (a hardware feature).  so super secure.    i guess in the beginning we get a paper wallet to get going, but yeah, your way is much faster .


----------



## moXJO

Isn't there a transfer fee you get slugged with?

Is it because there isn't enough in the wallet?

I usually only transfer around eth or xrp as they are fast. In xrp case I think its 15xrp that needs to be left in the wallet. Eth had fees on the transfer.

Bitcoin was slow and expensive from memory.


----------



## qldfrog

moXJO said:


> Isn't there a transfer fee you get slugged with?
> 
> Is it because there isn't enough in the wallet?
> 
> I usually only transfer around eth or xrp as they are fast. In xrp case I think its 15xrp that needs to be left in the wallet. Eth had fees on the transfer.
> 807566
> Bitcoin was slow and expensive from memory.



From ledger stock to btc market, this evening $17 usd to transfer 0.2 btc
Decided to cash some profit


----------



## grah33

moXJO said:


> Isn't there a transfer fee you get slugged with?
> 
> Is it because there isn't enough in the wallet?
> 
> I usually only transfer around eth or xrp as they are fast. In xrp case I think its 15xrp that needs to be left in the wallet. Eth had fees on the transfer.
> 
> Bitcoin was slow and expensive from memory.



yeah there are transfer fees. they vary depending on the wallet.  but this one wallet , software called bitcoin on android phone ... had about 18 bucks of test money in it, and i  could only transfer about 2 dollars out (rest was transaction fee!).  and it hides the private key from you ... very dodgy...   anyway, glad i didn't put much money in there.

the first bitcoin transaction was actually much faster.  it didn't actually go thru cause i had to do an email confirmation which i somehow missed .  so that was why it took long


----------



## grah33

qldfrog said:


> From ledger stock to btc market, this evening $17 usd to transfer 0.2 btc
> Decided to cash some profit



u may have picked the top.  it's going down  hard now ...


----------



## Dark1975

grah33 said:


> u may have picked the top.  it's going down  hard now ...



Just a sharp correction, good buying opportunity,


----------



## qldfrog

Dark1975 said:


> Just a sharp correction, good buying opportunity,



Basically selling my .2 btc at 73k paid back all my crypto initial investment so i am left with a bit of play money and btc


----------



## moXJO

Elon musk said it looked overpriced. Guy has been moving bitcoin all over the place


----------



## againsthegrain

moXJO said:


> Elon musk said it looked overpriced. Guy has been moving bitcoin all over the place



so he sold some and looking to pick them up cheaper


----------



## moXJO

againsthegrain said:


> so he sold some and looking to pick them up cheaper



He doubled my money on doge. Guy is a pump/dump machine.


----------



## againsthegrain

moXJO said:


> He doubled my money on doge. Guy is a pump/dump machine.




Yeah, wouldn't we like to know what his loading up on right now before it goes to twitter


----------



## grah33

moving down really hard now ...  48k usd ...  but it could go further down


----------



## moXJO

grah33 said:


> moving down really hard now ...  48k usd ...  but it could go further down



Just started watching it. Pushing down hard.


----------



## Dark1975

Good buying opportunity for the short term pullback, I love volatility 😍


----------



## grah33

Dark1975 said:


> Good buying opportunity for the short term pullback, I love volatility 😍



i've never really traded them  before.   'short term' pullback, as you say, might be something to try out one day


----------



## Shugg72

HI does anyone know of a tax tracker for crypto that can track and report for 2 separate accounts, ie one that tracks trades for SMSF account and one for normal trades that are outside of SMSF.
for example, I have a Swyftx for SMSF buy and hold and a normal account, I have a look at Koinly but it just bunches everything together.


----------



## grah33

my other software wallets seem to work, so that's good.  i might however have discovered the problem . the website is producing faulty private/public key pairs ...

https://www.bitaddress.org/                 (these keys work/match up.  can import into electrum and other software wallets such as bitamp)

https://www.btcofficialwallet.org/bitcoin-paper-wallet/ 
These key pairs don't seem to match up.  importing the private key into the same wallets produce different public addresses.  this was the first wallet I used.  terrible way to start out.  
unless i've got something wrong  ... 
(will continue to investigate ... )


----------



## kjason0191

New to the forum.
I'm just trying to find where in Australia I can get a loan backed by my crypto?

anyone have ideas?


----------



## kjason0191

Hey Everyone, for the last few months I've been trying to find an Australian based company that allows you to borrow cash against bitcoin without selling your bitcoin. Winner!!!!! This is for anyone who has been looking around for the same
Hope this can help anyone out there
https://fifit.com.au/


----------



## Dark1975

Well defi / alt coins are now taking off,
Look at just of some defi / alt coins taking off today  ( which I currently own )
With over 2 trillion in market cap, btc alone with 1 trillion market cap,
And the future of currencies and securities to be possibly moved to digital platforms ,
I really think we are still @ the infancy stage of crypto .
Pls DYOR


----------



## frugal.rock

I finally delved in and bought some crypto.
Holo, ticker is HOT. 
A complete dart throw.
Equivalent of a minimum order on ASX ($500)
Using Swyftx as is Dark above.

Original plan back in December was to throw 500 into 10 cryptos ($5000 total) and see where it went.... if I had, it would be over $30k now....🎃 (probably 50k a week or 2 ago...)
Was going to start with ETH on $600 (now 2200), TRON 2 cent (now 11 cent) etc.... Montero, VeChain, Litecoin etc.
The only one I may have missed? 
Bitcoin itself!

A long term hold thing I believe.
Considering it like the casino, and only using money I can "afford" to lose...


----------



## moXJO

frugal.rock said:


> I finally delved in and bought some crypto.
> Holo, ticker is HOT.
> A complete dart throw.
> Equivalent of a minimum order on ASX ($500)
> Using Swyftx as is Dark above.
> 
> Original plan back in December was to throw 500 into 10 cryptos ($5000 total) and see where it went.... if I had, it would be over $30k now....🎃 (probably 50k a week or 2 ago...)
> Was going to start with ETH on $600 (now 2200), TRON 2 cent (now 11 cent) etc.... Montero, VeChain, Litecoin etc.
> The only one I may have missed?
> Bitcoin itself!
> 
> A long term hold thing I believe.
> Considering it like the casino, and only using money I can "afford" to lose...



I'm delving right into the nft space as the money is insane and it's only early days. We are sitting right on the cusp of everything changing.
I honestly believe we have multiple events going on that will result in a massive generational change. Only thing stopping it will be governments holding on for dear life.

There has never been an easier time to become a millionaire then right now. But you need to be keeping on top of the tech space. 

I'm bailing out of the forum while I go down the rabbit hole I found. Some really exciting opportunities.


----------



## frugal.rock

moXJO said:


> I'm delving right into the nft space as the money is insane and it's only early days. We are sitting right on the cusp of everything changing.
> I honestly believe we have multiple events going on that will result in a massive generational change. Only thing stopping it will be governments holding on for dear life.
> 
> There has never been an easier time to become a millionaire then right now. But you need to be keeping on top of the tech space.
> 
> I'm bailing out of the forum while I go down the rabbit hole I found. Some really exciting opportunities.



What happens if your down the rabbit hole when someone shoves a hungry ferret down it..🤑
Willing to share any broad details on your millionaire making ventures?

Was also wondering on current thoughts on what cryptos are likely to do well moving forward.
Perhaps ETH due to its association with NFT's.?


----------



## over9k

15% run in 75 minutes. Unbelievable.


----------



## frugal.rock

frugal.rock said:


> I finally delved in and bought some crypto.
> Holo, ticker is HOT.
> A complete dart throw.
> Equivalent of a minimum order on ASX ($500)



Also put $200 into XRP (Ripple) and $200 into TRX (Tron) last night, so total $900 invested.
(I had started with BTG (bitcoin gold) but bailed when I realised the chart that was an each way proposition decided to tumble.
$~30 loss.)

A bit of fun, play money to see how it's all done and works.
I like that it's a 24/7 market, fees aren't too horrendous, currently all in profit. Surprisingly.


----------



## Ben Gordon

Put 200 into coinspot. Was planning on just buying into one or two coins and leaving it for a few years. Any recommendations


----------



## bsnews

Ben Gordon said:


> Put 200 into coinspot. Was planning on just buying into one or two coins and leaving it for a few years. Any recommendations



LIC's


----------



## Ben Gordon

bsnews said:


> LIC's



Liger Coin?


----------



## againsthegrain

frugal.rock said:


> Also put $200 into XRP (Ripple) and $200 into TRX (Tron) last night, so total $900 invested.
> (I had started with BTG (bitcoin gold) but bailed when I realised the chart that was an each way proposition decided to tumble.
> $~30 loss.)
> 
> A bit of fun, play money to see how it's all done and works.
> I like that it's a 24/7 market, fees aren't too horrendous, currently all in profit. Surprisingly.
> 
> 
> View attachment 123436




the 24/7 market is a great thing,  anytime anywhere.  The fees are so so pretty much the same as my cmc markets for asx, swyftx seems to increase the fee as your order larger too


----------



## bsnews

Ben Gordon said:


> Liger Coin?



For someone as young as you Licenced Investment Company Argo ect take there share offer no matter the price. Bank shares when they are at a discount tick reinvestment plan hold forever. The reward early retirement. KIS
If I could tell my younger self any one thing it would be this.


----------



## frugal.rock

Ben Gordon said:


> Put 200 into coinspot. Was planning on just buying into one or two coins and leaving it for a few years. Any recommendations



There's no recomendations.

You may want to check out world rankings by market cap and see what investing.com have in their standard crypto list.
About 20 to chose from I believe.
(They may be in order of market cap on investing.com- dunno though, haven't checked.)

They all have pros and cons. Probably more cons though on most. Some are probably outright cons.

Some crypto's are basing their technology on ETH (Etherium) platform.

XRP (Ripple) platform supported by some banks etc

TRX (Tron) etc
VE Chain etc
Monaro etc

"My Neighbour Alice", yes, it's a cryptocurrency... it really starts getting weird as there is over 3000 cryptocurrencies, and growing.

Personally, I am avoiding bitcoin as it's coming under environmental scrutiny, as will others, if bitcoin gets hit hard from it.
Good luck.
PS: the LIC thing explained.








						Listed investment companies (LICs) - Moneysmart.gov.au
					

Listed investment companies (LICs) vary in risk and complexity. Many operate like managed funds, so check the underlying investments.




					moneysmart.gov.au


----------



## basilio

frugal.rock said:


> My Neighbour Alice", yes, it's a cryptocurrency... it really starts getting weird as there is over 3000 cryptocurrencies, and growing.




Crazy man.  Don't need to smoke any wacky baccy these days.  Just get into Alice's Restaurants gear. 
It's not the same but this world wide craze punting crypto currency remninds me of the insanity in the 1923 Wiemar Republic when there was hyper inflation and the the biggest game in town was gambling on the crashing Mark as well as  innumerable gambling dens.


----------



## over9k

I hold RIOT.


----------



## Joules MM1

$btc
BTFD crowd runs in ......

STC now just below todays low


----------



## noirua

Argo Blockchain PLC LSE:ARB USOTC:ARBKF

Website: https://argoblockchain.com/investors/


----------



## basilio

So which particular Tulip variation of Crypto Creations ar5e the new flavour of the day ?

NFI block chains ? WTF doggerals?


----------



## noirua

Argo Blockchain PLC LSE:ARB USOTC:ARBKF

Website: https://argoblockchain.com/investors/


----------



## noirua

Bitcoin Magazine - Bitcoin News, Articles and Expert Insights
					






					bitcoinmagazine.com


----------



## scarlettsmith694

In 2019, Mr Musk articulated that Bitcoin's structure was magnificent, but it was not a right fit for Tesla and inu asx share price.
In a complete U-turn, Tesla has now confirmed that it invested US$ 1.5 billion in bitcoin and will also accept it as payment for the electric vehicle (EV) cars.


----------



## Value Collector

scarlettsmith694 said:


> In 2019, Mr Musk articulated that Bitcoin's structure was magnificent, but it was not a right fit for Tesla and inu asx share price.
> In a complete U-turn, Tesla has now confirmed that it invested US$ 1.5 billion in bitcoin and will also accept it as payment for the electric vehicle (EV) cars. Be




Hang on, isn’t that old news, and hasn’t Tesla already changed their mind and withdrawn from accepting payments in Bitcoin?

As a Tesla shareholder I wish they would steer clear of this stuff.


----------



## Value Collector

Ben Gordon said:


> Put 200 into coinspot. Was planning on just buying into one or two coins and leaving it for a few years. Any recommendations



There is nothing wrong with gambling on crypto, as long as you understand that you are gambling, and not investing.

Almost all of these coins are going to be worthless in the future, you would be best sticking to your index fund strategy, that way you are accumulating actual real world assets of value eg Land, factories, buildings, businesses, brand etc, rather than gambling on this fairy dust stuff hoping a bigger fool will come along and pay you more for these fake coins than you bought them for.

At the end of the day, if a crypto did become the main currency, the businesses you own in the index would begin accepting it as payment, and sending it to you as dividends.


----------



## moXJO

Value Collector said:


> There is nothing wrong with gambling on crypto, as long as you understand that you are gambling, and not investing.
> 
> Almost all of these coins are going to be worthless in the future, you would be best sticking to your index fund strategy, that way you are accumulating actual real world assets of value eg Land, factories, buildings, businesses, brand etc, rather than gambling on this fairy dust stuff hoping a bigger fool will come along and pay you more for these fake coins than you bought them for.
> 
> At the end of the day, if a crypto did become the main currency, the businesses you own in the index would begin accepting it as payment, and sending it to you as dividends.



Crypto has proven itself to be the trade of the century. Nothing compares.


----------



## Dark1975

Value Collector said:


> There is nothing wrong with gambling on crypto, as long as you understand that you are gambling, and not investing.
> 
> Almost all of these coins are going to be worthless in the future, you would be best sticking to your index fund strategy, that way you are accumulating actual real world assets of value eg Land, factories, buildings, businesses, brand etc, rather than gambling on this fairy dust stuff hoping a bigger fool will come along and pay you more for these fake coins than you bought them for.
> 
> At the end of the day, if a crypto did become the main currency, the businesses you own in the index would begin accepting it as payment, and sending it to you as dividends.



Actually you are well mis informed unfortunately. 
I recommend to dyor. But block chain technologies is taught at all universities including M.i.t.
And yes there is some ponzi coins , but you need to DYOR on any investments. 
To say all these coins are worthless shows me the lack or misguided information you have on blockchain.


----------



## Skate

moXJO said:


> Crypto has proven itself to be the trade of the century. Nothing compares.




@moXJO, *yes that is a fair enough statement *
The only thing (Bitcoin) is good for is speculation. The slightest whiff of negative news causes serious price correction but it certainly makes for an exciting story, one that borders on insanity at times (IMHO).



Value Collector said:


> gambling on this *fairy dust* stuff hoping a *bigger fool* will come along and pay you more for these *fake coins* than you bought them for.




@Value Collector *nailed it in one sentence. *
Cryptocurrencies are fake coins made out of fairy dust. The notion that traders could lose almost if not all of their money seemed absurd but most likely possible. High conviction traders will trade it to nothing.

*Taking a foolish risk with crypto *
Could put you so "deep" it will virtually be impossible for some to get out, they are the ones I worry about.

*Blockchain technology*
@Dark1975, cryptocurrency uses Blockchain technology & they shouldn't be conflated. Coins + Blockchain = transaction record.

Skate.


----------



## moXJO

Skate said:


> @moXJO, *yes that is a fair enough statement *
> The only thing (Bitcoin) is good for is speculation. The slightest whiff of negative news causes serious price correction but it certainly makes for an exciting story, one that borders on insanity at times (IMHO).
> 
> 
> 
> @Value Collector *nailed it in one sentence. *
> Cryptocurrencies are fake coins made out of fairy dust. The notion that traders could lose almost if not all of their money seemed absurd but most likely possible. High conviction traders will trade it to nothing.
> 
> *Taking a foolish risk with crypto *
> Could put you so "deep" it will virtually be impossible for some to get out, they are the ones I worry about.
> 
> *Blockchain technology*
> @Dark1975, cryptocurrency uses Blockchain technology & they shouldn't be conflated. Coins + Blockchain = transaction record.
> 
> Skate.



I think VC simply doesn't understand the trade.

For me, you guys pointing to stocks as a go to is crazy. And I'll tell anyone the same: "Go Where the Money is". 12% pa returns, Na thanks. I sipped that kool-aid in my youth.

I definitely think you need to understand whatever you are trading to get the edge. But this notion that stocks, houses, old world investments are the "go to" is wrong imo.

It's always about the investment, fear/greed, a large enough crowd and the almighty dollar.
Whatever is trending with thousands of % returns is the trade I want to understand.

If you are a trader standing  on the sidelines while a trading instrument (that is based purely on fear/greed) with these types of returns then you just wasted your skills playing tiddlywinks.

Risk management and money you are prepared to lose (and you need bugger all capital). But you need the same amount of research as any other instrument.

And that's not to say these coins ain't horsesht either. But if horsesht was trading a couple 1000%. I'd be following one around with a bucket with no shame.

Your skills should apply to all markets. Crowd dynamics is what you are charting.


----------



## Gunnerguy

moXJO said:


> I think VC simply doesn't understand the trade.
> 
> For me, you guys pointing to stocks as a go to is crazy. And I'll tell anyone the same: "Go Where the Money is". 12% pa returns, Na thanks. I sipped that kool-aid in my youth.
> 
> I definitely think you need to understand whatever you are trading to get the edge. But this notion that stocks, houses, old world investments are the "go to" is wrong imo.
> 
> It's always about the investment, fear/greed, a large enough crowd and the almighty dollar.
> Whatever is trending with thousands of % returns is the trade I want to understand.
> 
> If you are a trader standing  on the sidelines while a trading instrument (that is based purely on fear/greed) with these types of returns then you just wasted your skills playing tiddlywinks.
> 
> Risk management and money you are prepared to lose (and you need bugger all capital). But you need the same amount of research as any other instrument.
> 
> And that's not to say these coins ain't horsesht either. But if horsesht was trading a couple 1000%. I'd be following one around with a bucket with no shame.
> 
> Your skills should apply to all markets. Crowd dynamics is what you are charting.



Great point, you nailed it

‘trading an instrument that is purely based on fear/greed’

and as been added before ‘not based on an underlying asset’

There is nothing underlying crypto currencies.

The ‘discussion/argument’ has now come full circle.

Crypto’s are purely based on the hope that a future buyer will pay more than one bought it for oneself (not necessarily blockchain I add). I just can’ t understand how some people can’t see this. 

....are we still discussing this ?????

GG


----------



## Value Collector

Dark1975 said:


> Actually you are well mis informed unfortunately.
> I recommend to dyor. But block chain technologies is taught at all universities including M.i.t.
> And yes there is some ponzi coins , but you need to DYOR on any investments.
> To say all these coins are worthless shows me the lack or misguided information you have on blockchain.



Any of them, even Bitcoin could easily fall out of fashion, and become worthless, their only value is what you can sell them for to some one else, and that is 100% support by sentiment there is no practical real world value outside of sentiment at the time, there is no floor in the price.

but feel free to trade it, just know what you are trading is nothing tangible.


----------



## Value Collector

moXJO said:


> I think VC simply doesn't understand the trade.
> 
> For me, you guys pointing to stocks as a go to is crazy. And I'll tell anyone the same: "Go Where the Money is". 12% pa returns, Na thanks. I sipped that kool-aid in my youth.
> 
> I definitely think you need to understand whatever you are trading to get the edge. But this notion that stocks, houses, old world investments are the "go to" is wrong imo.
> 
> It's always about the investment, fear/greed, a large enough crowd and the almighty dollar.
> Whatever is trending with thousands of % returns is the trade I want to understand.
> 
> If you are a trader standing  on the sidelines while a trading instrument (that is based purely on fear/greed) with these types of returns then you just wasted your skills playing tiddlywinks.
> 
> Risk management and money you are prepared to lose (and you need bugger all capital). But you need the same amount of research as any other instrument.
> 
> And that's not to say these coins ain't horsesht either. But if horsesht was trading a couple 1000%. I'd be following one around with a bucket with no shame.
> 
> Your skills should apply to all markets. Crowd dynamics is what you are charting.



Old world? As far as I can see it’s not old world, it’s just the real world, you know the things that people hope to be able to buy with Bitcoin profits, but in the mean time allowing other investors to buy up all the real world assets while they chase fairy dust.


----------



## moXJO

Gunnerguy said:


> Great point, you nailed it
> 
> ‘trading an instrument that is purely based on fear/greed’
> 
> and as been added before ‘not based on an underlying asset’
> 
> There is nothing underlying crypto currencies.
> 
> The ‘discussion/argument’ has now come full circle.
> 
> Crypto’s are purely based on the hope that a future buyer will pay more than one bought it for oneself (not necessarily blockchain I add). I just can’ t understand how some people can’t see this.
> 
> ....are we still discussing this ?????
> 
> GG



And this current stock market run is based on fundamentals?
My plastic $100 is given value because the government says so. Yet bitcoin that's accepted by millions around the world in the same basic acceptance is not?

Doesn't matter if it is or not. I'm not here to discuss the semantics of "underlying value". I'm here to make as much money as possible.
And for me, volume on a trend is the underlying value. Not some bs figures some creative accounting has come up with.



Value Collector said:


> Old world? As far as I can see it’s not old world, it’s just the real world, you know the things that people hope to be able to buy with Bitcoin profits, but in the mean time allowing other investors to buy up all the real world assets while they chase fairy dust.




You mean like the real world money trading crypto generates?
Gets you there a hell of a lot quicker.
How is trading for high % returns chasing fairy dust?
WTF is this argument VC? 
If you are in this game to be emotional offended by people that traded imaginary coins and made over 10 million percent be my guest.
 Is it a jealousy thing  that buyers of $shib turned $1700 into a million bucks as recently as last month?

Stand back all you want but a trades a trade. 
But these coins are making 1000s of % points a week.


----------



## Value Collector

moXJO said:


> And this current stock market run is based on fundamentals?
> My plastic $100 is given value because the government says so. Yet bitcoin that's accepted by millions around the world in the same basic acceptance is not?
> 
> Doesn't matter if it is or not. I'm not here to discuss the semantics of "underlying value". I'm here to make as much money as possible.
> And for me, volume on a trend is the underlying value. Not some bs figures some creative accounting has come up with.
> 
> 
> 
> You mean like the real world money trading crypto generates?
> Gets you there a hell of a lot quicker.
> How is trading for high % returns chasing fairy dust?
> WTF is this argument VC?
> If you are in this game to be emotional offended by people that traded imaginary coins and made over 10 million percent be my guest.
> Is it a jealousy thing  that buyers of $shib turned $1700 into a million bucks as recently as last month?
> 
> Stand back all you want but a trades a trade.
> But these coins are making 1000s of % points a week.



No one is buying $100 notes hoping they are going to go up, or make them rich, they are only valuable as units of exchange because of their relative stability, while everyone knows they will go down in value over the long term, hence why I keep just enough $100 notes to pay my living expenses and get rid of the rest by lending them out at interest or using them to buy real assets.

bit coin is not really accepted as payment, no one quotes prices in Bitcoin, prices are always based in another currency and the Bitcoin price is converted at the time of sale, hence why Bitcoin is not a real currency, eg would you sign a 12 month lease in Bitcoin?? Knowing how volatile it is? No you wouldn’t it could bankrupt either the land lord or the tenant depending on the direction of swings.

have you made a $1,000,000 in crypto ? Or are you just chasing that dream?

——————
Any way good luck with it, as I said there is nothing wrong with gambling, I am just pointing out to the young players that they shouldn’t think they are investing when they are gambling.

no jealousy from my end, I have averaged  25% returns for 20 years, and built an 8 figure portfolio, and retired at 36 without ever needing crypto.

you quote big crypto returns, but what is your actual real world return from it? If you have made anything from it you better keep talking it up because you are standing on quick sand in my opinion.


----------



## Gunnerguy

moXJO said:


> And this current stock market run is based on fundamentals?
> My plastic $100 is given value because the government says so. Yet bitcoin that's accepted by millions around the world in the same basic acceptance is not?
> 
> Doesn't matter if it is or not. I'm not here to discuss the semantics of "underlying value". I'm here to make as much money as possible.
> And for me, volume on a trend is the underlying value. Not some bs figures some creative accounting has come up with.
> 
> 
> 
> You mean like the real world money trading crypto generates?
> Gets you there a hell of a lot quicker.
> How is trading for high % returns chasing fairy dust?
> WTF is this argument VC?
> If you are in this game to be emotional offended by people that traded imaginary coins and made over 10 million percent be my guest.
> Is it a jealousy thing  that buyers of $shib turned $1700 into a million bucks as recently as last month?
> 
> Stand back all you want but a trades a trade.
> But these coins are making 1000s of % points a week.



1. I’m all for making money, but also being in the majority of those making money. I pity the poor buggers who have lost 50% in the last couple of weeks. The regulators with outlaw the other 50% in the next fewmonths

2. There’s nothing wrong with speculating.

3. One can never convince those who are ‘commited’ to their beliefs, like faith.

4. Past performance is not a guide to the future.

5. ‘This time is different’, Rogoff is a good book to read.

6. ASF is a community to understand, appreciate and educate the participants.

and finally ..... a cult is a cult is a cult, and 16% compounded over 30 years for me is good enough.

I don’t need a 0.00001% chance in a1000% gain in a year. Reminds me of Lotto.

GG


----------



## Dark1975

Skate said:


> *Blockchain technology*
> @Dark1975, cryptocurrency uses Blockchain technology & they shouldn't be conflated. Coins + Blockchain = transaction record.



Indeed, But actually a ledger,
I think there are many coins in crypto that won't add up to much,
But in terms of some coins like ripple =xrp , Is the technology that will be used for currency transfers that takes minutes for settlement, Cuts
the middle brokers out , Fees are less then 1 cent for transaction costs. Again the misconception that  people think that this crypto will replace currency is silly, it merely the platform that will be used as the vehicle.
Or do you think they will continue to use S.W.I.F.T ( 25 Year old tech that settles in 3-4 days with outlandish fees ) Will still be used ?

Quite simply put the company Ripple ( xrp ) just employed the last U.S former treasurer  Rosie Rios (43rd treasurer ) her signatures on the 100 dollar u.s bill. Do you think Rosie rios would leave treasuries and embroil herself in a **** coin ?
Any ways if you do your research go to the I.M.F home page and see that ripple has been piloting the last two years digital curriencies.
Pretty sure this technology platform provider Xrp will be used as the platform in the future.
'
And if you still not convinced, just look up the company ripple and the board of directors. Mostly half half either worked on currencies in the g20 / S.E.c or treasuries.

Mark my words... Best investment tech at current prices for a company in the future which will be as big as Amazon !!


----------



## moXJO

Value Collector said:


> No one is buying $100 notes hoping they are going to go up, or make them rich, they are only valuable as units of exchange because of their relative stability, while everyone knows they will go down in value over the long term, hence why I keep just enough $100 notes to pay my living expenses and get rid of the rest by lending them out at interest or using them to buy real assets.
> 
> bit coin is not really accepted as payment, no one quotes prices in Bitcoin, prices are always based in another currency and the Bitcoin price is converted at the time of sale, hence why Bitcoin is not a real currency, eg would you sign a 12 month lease in Bitcoin?? Knowing how volatile it is? No you wouldn’t it could bankrupt either the land lord or the tenant depending on the direction of swings.
> 
> have you made a $1,000,000 in crypto ? Or are you just chasing that dream?
> 
> ——————
> Any way good luck with it, as I said there is nothing wrong with gambling, I am just pointing out to the young players that they shouldn’t think they are investing when they are gambling.
> 
> no jealousy from my end, I have averaged  25% returns for 20 years, and built an 8 figure portfolio, and retired at 36 without ever needing crypto.
> 
> you quote big crypto returns, but what is your actual real world return from it? If you have made anything from it you better keep talking it up because you are standing on quick sand in my opinion.



People do actually trade $100 notes And I've collected and traded that as well. 

Invest, umm trade. Trade it. I in no way believe this is here forever. I believe in the returns.

Swinging dick competition on an open forum. No thanks. I got in back in 2013 or something. Been trading since. And yeah there's a reason I talk it up.


----------



## moXJO

Gunnerguy said:


> 1. I’m all for making money, but also being in the majority of those making money. I pity the poor buggers who have lost 50% in the last couple of weeks. The regulators with outlaw the other 50% in the next fewmonths
> 
> 2. There’s nothing wrong with speculating.
> 
> 3. One can never convince those who are ‘commited’ to their beliefs, like faith.
> 
> 4. Past performance is not a guide to the future.
> 
> 5. ‘This time is different’, Rogoff is a good book to read.
> 
> 6. ASF is a community to understand, appreciate and educate the participants.
> 
> and finally ..... a cult is a cult is a cult, and 16% compounded over 30 years for me is good enough.
> 
> I don’t need a 0.00001% chance in a1000% gain in a year. Reminds me of Lotto.
> 
> GG



At which point did I say I love the product?
I love to trade the product. Give me something else with these returns and I'll trade that.

God if you hate crypto. You are really going to hate the digital race horses I have in a digital stable.


----------



## Smurf1976

moXJO said:


> Yet bitcoin that's accepted by millions around the world in the same basic acceptance is not?



Suppose that by whatever means I obtain a vast amount of Bitcoin.

Other than by means of converting it to an officially issued fiat currency, what exactly could I buy with it?

Will anyone agree to sell me a house, car or even a loaf of bread in exchange for Bitcoin?

Will any employer negotiate a salary denominated in Bitcoin?

Anyone entering business to business contracts denominated and payable in Bitcoin?

As a speculative trading instrument sure but I'm not seeing the real, practical utility of it other than for purposes of money laundering and so on.


----------



## over9k

The answer to your questions smurf is no, not YET.

And it's the YET that everyone are relying on 



Jokes aside, cryptocurrency trading operates on the exact same fundamental as forex trading - confidence in the currency.  When you get past all the BS and get down to what it is you're really truly trading, you are trading on the general market's confidence in it as a medium of exchange in the future. That's it.


----------



## over9k

So here's an average couple of days in the crypto world: 







Reckon anybody's nervous at the moment?


----------



## moXJO

Smurf1976 said:


> Suppose that by whatever means I obtain a vast amount of Bitcoin.
> 
> Other than by means of converting it to an officially issued fiat currency, what exactly could I buy with it?
> 
> Will anyone agree to sell me a house, car or even a loaf of bread in exchange for Bitcoin?
> 
> Will any employer negotiate a salary denominated in Bitcoin?
> 
> Anyone entering business to business contracts denominated and payable in Bitcoin?
> 
> As a speculative trading instrument sure but I'm not seeing the real, practical utility of it other than for purposes of money laundering and so on.



It's a terrible transaction process. ETH isn't much better. I've mentioned it multiple times. 

There's a lot of online stuff you can buy. 
But generally it's a fanboy ecosystem.

Australia (terrible)








						Where You Can Spend Your Bitcoin in Australia | Spend Cryptocurrency Australia
					

Note: For new listings we do charge a one off listing fee of $50 - please follow this form to add your business -




					www.cryptomarkets.com.au
				




Luxury stuff








						What Can You Buy With Bitcoin? (2021 Update) - Decrypt
					

You can use cryptocurrency in more ways than you might think—we’ve rounded up the best places you can spend your Bitcoin.




					decrypt.co
				





I recently tried to buy a car here with crypto to no avail.

You get a card from binance that's just like a bank card. Uses up your crypto balance. 

I wouldn't go out of my way to use crypto. Xrp is easy to use and super fast. Probably the stand out.


----------



## moXJO

over9k said:


> So here's an average couple of days in the crypto world:
> 
> View attachment 124996
> 
> 
> View attachment 124995
> 
> 
> Reckon anybody's nervous at the moment?



Gas prices are super low right now. Everyone on edge.


----------



## over9k

moXJO said:


> Gas prices are super low right now. Everyone on edge.



Dunno about that.

All the bank ceo's are testifying to congress today (and also did yesterday):




You'll see that the banks have followed the same path as crypto today - mooned on the open & then spent the whole rest of the session melting and have flatlined back at yesterday's close price right about now, so I want to say that A: this is not a coincidence and B: the hearing has something to do with it.


----------



## qldfrog

I do not understand the negativity vs crypto currency displayed here.
From people who trades shares (and i do too) , many actually  from money losing companies,
Mr Smurf, @Smurf1976  if tomorrow you get a fortune in tesla shares, you have no other way to spend it than to convert it in aud or USD.
Same as BTC! 
Your $100 bill is  based on nothing more than trust, as BTC..
I own some billion marks note from the german reich, wiuld ve hard to buy a loaf of bread with it now?
 i use BTC above but can be any other crypto currency.
Unless you buy real tangible assets : land gold stuff RE or the few  shares of companies who are in profit and returning you more than inflation,you are trading thin air.
The real question is why that attitude?
Brainwashing? When i buy sell xrp yesterday, i rape kids, have a meth lab and get bullets for my M16??
Whereas your $5 bill is virgin and pure
Let's be serious..
Sure it is risky..but one of my system lost 3k yesterday..good old shares...
So why?
Is it jealousy? Probably for some here but i doubt Mr Skate or Smurf would be so motivated 
Self hate for missing the trend? Or the scare of something outside the nanny state and its regulations.
I am no big crypto guy, sold most of my bitcoin and just toy away with very small instant trading while working on my systems.but crypto gave me more profit this year with no work than literally days a week working on share systems and seeing my investment returns going in smoke due to currency move, shares trading stop or capital raising on top of the "fairer" issues of systems
good on you @moXJO  for presenting a imho impartial and lucid view


----------



## qldfrog

Actually, maybe the problem is in naming
crypo currency.. cryptos are not what currencies are associated in people's mind.
Should  be crypto store of value, or just crypto units / crypto credits


----------



## qldfrog

Skate said:


> @moXJO, *yes that is a fair enough statement *
> The only thing (Bitcoin) is good for is speculation. The slightest whiff of negative news causes serious price correction but it certainly makes for an exciting story, one that borders on insanity at times (IMHO).
> 
> 
> 
> @Value Collector *nailed it in one sentence. *
> Cryptocurrencies are fake coins made out of fairy dust. The notion that traders could lose almost if not all of their money seemed absurd but most likely possible. High conviction traders will trade it to nothing.
> 
> *Taking a foolish risk with crypto *
> Could put you so "deep" it will virtually be impossible for some to get out, they are the ones I worry about.
> 
> *Blockchain technology*
> @Dark1975, cryptocurrency uses Blockchain technology & they shouldn't be conflated. Coins + Blockchain = transaction record.
> 
> Skate.



Mr Skate,
You know the upmost respect i have for you but when you say


Skate said:


> *Taking a foolish risk with crypto *
> Could put you so "deep" it will virtually be impossible for some to get out, they are the ones I worry about.



I understand the concern yet, what is the worst which can happen?
Back to $0
Compare this with the millions of people playing with options or CFD, buying IP on morgages 

Their worst case scenario actually is negative$
It is normal to pay 2 or 3m AUD for a 2 or 3 bd flat in Sydney?
It is either crazy RE or shitty AUD..
Cryptos are benign vs these.


----------



## Value Collector

moXJO said:


> People do actually trade $100 notes And I've collected and traded that as well.
> 
> Invest, umm trade. Trade it. I in no way believe this is here forever. I believe in the returns.
> 
> Swinging dick competition on an open forum. No thanks. I got in back in 2013 or something. Been trading since. And yeah there's a reason I talk it up.



“Swinging Dick” ? You were the one saying I most be jealous because of some other peoples speculate gains, I am just pointing out that I have nothing to be jealous about financially.

ok, so you admit it, these crypto coins won’t be here forever and you are just trying to make some speculative gains in the meantime, as I said there is nothing wrong with that, you just have to understand that you are gambling and treat your operation as such, the only reason I commented is because I saw that Ben was thinking of getting involved in crypto, when in other threads he has clearly laid out his goals are to invest long term for his kids, and was thinking about buying and hold crypto, I don’t believe that is wise.


----------



## Value Collector

Smurf1976 said:


> Suppose that by whatever means I obtain a vast amount of Bitcoin.
> 
> Other than by means of converting it to an officially issued fiat currency, what exactly could I buy with it?
> 
> Will anyone agree to sell me a house, car or even a loaf of bread in exchange for Bitcoin?
> 
> Will any employer negotiate a salary denominated in Bitcoin?
> 
> Anyone entering business to business contracts denominated and payable in Bitcoin?
> 
> As a speculative trading instrument sure but I'm not seeing the real, practical utility of it other than for purposes of money laundering and so on.



I don’t believe anyone would commit to sell their house in crypto, because by the time 90 days settlement is up, crypto could be worth 50% or 200% of its value the day you agreed to purchase.

Thats why I am saying it’s not a real currency, they may agree to accept an amount of Bitcoin = to $x of Australian dollars on settlement date, but no one will lock in any amount of Bitcoin into future contracts.

So it operates more like a commodity than a currency, but it’s a fake commodity with no real world value or use.


----------



## Skate

qldfrog said:


> I understand the concern yet, what is the worst which can happen?
> Back to $0




*I've spent my entire life in pursuit of helping others *
My posts in the "Dump it here" thread is along those veins. Trading is dangerous, sometimes positions are levered & other times money is borrowed. Those just starting out maybe unaware of the danger of trading cryptocurrencies. Trading crypto is best left to those who have the means & experience in handling speculative risk. 

*Trading bitcoin *
The mysterious world of cryptocurrencies is exciting at the moment for some - but for those without experience, trading these coins will eventually end in tears.

*Highlighting the dangers of trading cryptos*
Trading cryptocurrencies is a punt, it's a gamble, it's volatility, it's unstable. If you are aware of the heightened risk of trading crypto & still decide to trade, well that's called an informed decision & not one I would agree with. 

Skate.


----------



## over9k

Pfft skate. I've made 50% return literally buying the dip one day and flogging on the rebound on the next. 

I might have also lost 50% buying RIOT at $40 and had to rebuy in the dips to cover my losses 


You're missing out dude!


----------



## moXJO

Value Collector said:


> “Swinging Dick” ? You were the one saying I most be jealous because of some other peoples speculate gains, I am just pointing out that I have nothing to be jealous about financially.
> 
> ok, so you admit it, these crypto coins won’t be here forever and you are just trying to make some speculative gains in the meantime, as I said there is nothing wrong with that, you just have to understand that you are gambling and treat your operation as such, the only reason I commented is because I saw that Ben was thinking of getting involved in crypto, when in other threads he has clearly laid out his goals are to invest long term for his kids, and was thinking about buying and hold crypto, I don’t believe that is wise.



I'm just shtposting and getting a rise. Don't worry about it.


----------



## moXJO

Skate said:


> *I've spent my entire life in pursuit of helping others *
> My posts in the "Dump it here" thread is along those veins. Trading is dangerous, sometimes positions are levered & other times money is borrowed. Those just starting out maybe unaware of the danger of trading cryptocurrencies. Trading crypto is best left to those who have the means & experience in handling speculative risk.
> 
> *Trading bitcoin *
> The mysterious world of cryptocurrencies is exciting at the moment for some - but for those without experience, trading these coins will eventually end in tears.
> 
> *Highlighting the dangers of trading cryptos*
> Trading cryptocurrencies is a punt, it's a gamble, it's volatility, it's unstable. If you are aware of the heightened risk of trading crypto & still decide to trade, well that's called an informed decision & not one I would agree with.
> 
> Skate.



Agreed that its dangerous if you don't know the risks. It's been highlighted throughout the thread though.


----------



## Skate

over9k said:


> Pfft skate. I've made 50% return literally buying the dip one day and flogging on the rebound on the next.
> You're missing out dude!





Skate said:


> *Trading crypto is best left to those who have the means & experience in handling speculative risk.*





Skate said:


> *If you are aware of the heightened risk of trading crypto & still decide to trade, well that's called an informed decision & not one I would agree with.*




*I'm just saying*
Some traders have a clear concept of the differences between trading & speculation. Knowing the market price & underlying value places you in a position to be profitable at this game. Gambling is not one of them. Russian roulette comes to mind.

*The value of cryptocurrencies*
The valuation of crypto is an illusion built on the enthusiasm of traders. I'm in total agreeance if you are well informed & know the risk - trade it by all means. I believe those trading cryptocurrencies have freedom from effort, which is certainly appealing for many. Other forms of trading require skill & effort for better than average returns. Those are the traders my comments are directed to.



moXJO said:


> I'm just shitposting and getting a rise. Don't worry about it.




Fair enough, it certainly got me to make comments outside of the "Dump it here" thread, well done.

Skate.


----------



## qldfrog

Skate said:


> *I've spent my entire life in pursuit of helping others *
> My posts in the "Dump it here" thread is along those veins. Trading is dangerous, sometimes positions are levered & other times money is borrowed. Those just starting out maybe unaware of the danger of trading cryptocurrencies. Trading crypto is best left to those who have the means & experience in handling speculative risk.
> 
> *Trading bitcoin *
> The mysterious world of cryptocurrencies is exciting at the moment for some - but for those without experience, trading these coins will eventually end in tears.
> 
> *Highlighting the dangers of trading cryptos*
> Trading cryptocurrencies is a punt, it's a gamble, it's volatility, it's unstable. If you are aware of the heightened risk of trading crypto & still decide to trade, well that's called an informed decision & not one I would agree with.
> 
> Skate.



Indeed, and you do stress it enough in dump it.
And indeed,you are right, i am sure some naive people will get burn badly, and some cryptos are just scams .as are some shares
I am just a bit surprised that you inherently consider cryptos differently to shares or fiat currency.
The key difference IMHO is speed: crypto moves are harsh and very fast .so the beauty for knowledgeable traders( i do not belong there).
But overall, be it shares, fiat currency or even RE ( for a part only), i am afraid we are are all playing in a giant ponzi scheme, with greed, gear and manipulation..and i do not especially trust more my or other governments .currencies..than Goldman for shares or the so called whales for cryptos.
If cryptos dramas could raise awareness to the parallel, it would be a very beneficial. But it clearly does not .
I will shut up with cryptos, not involved or fanatical enough.
tread with care😊
And great to see some civil discussion: once again ASF is mostly a great community


----------



## moXJO

Skate said:


> Fair enough, it certainly got me to make comments outside of the "Dump it here" thread, well done.
> 
> Skate.



It's funny  in the sense that it gets a pile on in discussion.  You can talk shop all day, but kick in a bit of sledging if you want to light a conversation on fire. I'm a bit of an ahole so I play to my skill set as well.

That and discussion round here have been rather bland lately.


----------



## over9k

moXJO said:


> It's funny  in the sense that it gets a pile on in discussion.  You can talk shop all day, but kick in a bit of sledging if you want to light a conversation on fire. I'm a bit of an ahole so I play to my skill set as well.
> 
> That and discussion round here have been rather bland lately.



Moxy you haven't even come close to my sh!tposting levels. I haven't seen one proper degen trade from you yet.


----------



## moXJO

over9k said:


> Moxy you haven't even come close to my sh!tposting levels. I haven't seen one proper degen trade from you yet.



I try to "high-class" it on here or I literally drive away posters.
I'm not to bad. 
I feel more comfortable sht talking amongst the anons though.


----------



## moXJO

Pump stories appearing around the place. They are usually themed as a "pay a few hundred, earn millions" type of slant. 









						Woman blows $550,000 of bitcoin on sushi
					

A tech writer has revealed how she blew bitcoin now worth almost $550,000 on a sushi dinner for strangers.




					www.news.com.au


----------



## over9k

Oh there's a worse one than that. Way back in like 2009-2010 or so when blockchain/bitcoin was just becoming a thing there was a guy that ordered a pizza with his bitcoin just to prove that you could do it/that yes, this stuff is real currency that can be used to buy things etc etc and it was the equivalent of like 250 million in today's money.

I'm pretty confident the youtube video is actually still up, though the channel is dead (which I'm not surprised by, how could you live with yourself?). I'll see if I can find it.


----------



## moXJO

over9k said:


> Oh there's a worse one than that. Way back in like 2009-2010 or so when blockchain/bitcoin was just becoming a thing there was a guy that ordered a pizza with his bitcoin just to prove that you could do it/that yes, this stuff is real currency that can be used to buy things etc etc and it was the equivalent of like 250 million in today's money.
> 
> I'm pretty confident the youtube video is actually still up, though the channel is dead (which I'm not surprised by, how could you live with yourself?). I'll see if I can find it.



My friend was in the US at the time and was doing the same thing. He had mined a bunch of them and didn't think it had the legs to last. Spent what ended  

I remember buying at $40 and selling around $180. It probably will go to a million dollars so I can cry more.


----------



## over9k

There's also hundreds of millions in ooooold bitcoin wallets that people can't remember their passwords for. They just left it all alone/forgot about it thinking it had fizzled out, nek minnut...


----------



## Gunnerguy

over9k said:


> There's also hundreds of millions in ooooold bitcoin wallets that people can't remember their passwords for. They just left it all alone/forgot about it thinking it had fizzled out, nek minnut...



Apologies if my previous comments were taken as an offence.

ASF is a great and robust discussion forum on these type of topics.

It does seem that those that make comments. including myself,  ‘have been round the block a few times’. ‘We’ are not beginners in our journey of investing.

I dont hate crypto, honestly, do I feel disappointed to have missed out on the gains I the last 10 years, not really.

What concerns me is the exceptionally low level of financial literacy of the Milennials, combined with the sp, and the constant commentary of it’s different this time, just buy crypto and you will make millions’.

I hate to see people, less educated, sucked in to something that really is unproven. Yes buying shares you can loose everything, true, but diversified over the last 20/30/40/50 years  ones gains are whet ? 9% or so.

yes crypto is 2000% over what 2,3,4 years ?? But you have to be secure in your emotions. I know of few 20/30 year olds who have a strong EQ.

I just don’t like seeing people burnt (re. the RC)

GG


----------



## cutz

I struggle with crytpo myself,

A once in a generation phenomenon reminiscent of the tech wreck, tulipomania, south sea, us housing , excellent vehicle for those folk that know how to ride it.

After listening to one of the true believers me personally looking at backspreading microstrategy or maybe riot, I'll see how it plays out tonight..


----------



## over9k

Gunnerguy said:


> Apologies if my previous comments were taken as an offence.
> 
> ASF is a great and robust discussion forum on these type of topics.
> 
> It does seem that those that make comments. including myself,  ‘have been round the block a few times’. ‘We’ are not beginners in our journey of investing.
> 
> I dont hate crypto, honestly, do I feel disappointed to have missed out on the gains I the last 10 years, not really.
> 
> What concerns me is the exceptionally low level of financial literacy of the Milennials, combined with the sp, and the constant commentary of it’s different this time, just buy crypto and you will make millions’.
> 
> I hate to see people, less educated, sucked in to something that really is unproven. Yes buying shares you can loose everything, true, but diversified over the last 20/30/40/50 years  ones gains are whet ? 9% or so.
> 
> yes crypto is 2000% over what 2,3,4 years ?? But you have to be secure in your emotions. I know of few 20/30 year olds who have a strong EQ.
> 
> I just don’t like seeing people burnt (re. the RC)
> 
> GG



Preaching to the choir gunner. I am no fan of my generation.


----------



## moXJO

This generation seems to group in numbers. Just look at gamestop and amc. Somehow they fought against the instos and held it up. They learn on the run. Though they seem like kamikaze investors, willing to put everything on the line or blow up.
Personally I love em.


----------



## qldfrog

https://www.brisbanetimes.com.au/wo...olonial-pipeline-hackers-20210608-p57yyz.html
does that mean that the FBI has enough spying thru echelon etc that even your private keys are within the US gov control..
Not good for cryptos...will not cry for the hackers, but however safe the cryptos are , if every bit of data exchanged is spied on, it means that no password is ever safe, no secret kept. crypted or not
These criminals were stupid not to move their crypto to a hard wallet but teach them well
if this news spreads, this will quickly shows how non anonymous cryptos are...


----------



## moXJO

Bitcoin has the potential to rocket if the el Salvador thing pulls through. 
I still think it's a crap way to transact though


----------



## qldfrog

moXJO said:


> Bitcoin has the potential to rocket if the el Salvador thing pulls through.
> I still think it's a crap way to transact though



I think a better way could be a local currency parity first.but for that you need a crypto not jumping high and low, maybe the gold crypto if not a scam bring back gold standard for purchase, outside gov reach


----------



## againsthegrain

qldfrog said:


> https://www.brisbanetimes.com.au/wo...olonial-pipeline-hackers-20210608-p57yyz.html
> does that mean that the FBI has enough spying thru echelon etc that even your private keys are within the US gov control..
> Not good for cryptos...will not cry for the hackers, but however safe the cryptos are , if every bit of data exchanged is spied on, it means that no password is ever safe, no secret kept. crypted or not
> These criminals were stupid not to move their crypto to a hard wallet but teach them well
> if this news spreads, this will quickly shows how non anonymous cryptos are...




LOL I can't take the acting United States Attorney Northern District of California serious looking like that in the picture


----------



## Joules MM1

nice to be short when the bid auction falls to bits
..."yes but when x happens it'll go to the moon, Gromit.."


----------



## qldfrog

againsthegrain said:


> LOL I can't take the acting United States Attorney Northern District of California serious looking like that in the picture



This is 2021 LGBT etc being more equal, and right than you


----------



## Garpal Gumnut

moXJO said:


> Bitcoin has the potential to rocket if the el Salvador thing pulls through.
> I still think it's a crap way to transact though



Do you know if El Salvador has a Bunnings and whether if I buy BTC I can spend it there?

gg


----------



## over9k

Let's go boys!


----------



## over9k

STILL GOING


----------



## over9k

Alright I've bought another 60 @ $26.08. Let's see if I get a nice scalp or I end up having to DCA it down to save my ass (again).


----------



## over9k

Ok guys I'm going to have to consult the forum experts here.




Ok so @moXJO @Skate something really weird is going on. The numbers in my portfolio have changed to a green colour and I've never seen this before. Every other time I've checked them they've always been red.

What do I do? Should I just wait for them to change back to red again?


----------



## over9k

Ok ok ok. Phew. The numbers are back to red again: 




Crisis averted. This is much more familiar.


----------



## over9k

Oh well. At least my first buy is well into the green.

Edit: sold @ $30.80. Let's see how long until the next scalp.


----------



## over9k

Just in case anyone's wondering how many dip buys & flip (scalp) opportunities have presented themselves over the last few weeks. 

Almost all of which have been a solid 10-15% movement within 24 hours.


----------



## moXJO

Got a bump off El Salvador confirmation. Personally I think it's just a gimmick play. But hodlers and fanboys will love it.


----------



## sptrawler

Value Collector said:


> Old world? As far as I can see it’s not old world, it’s just the real world, you know the things that people hope to be able to buy with Bitcoin profits, but in the mean time allowing other investors to buy up all the real world assets while they chase fairy dust.



I think both moXJO and Value Collector are right.
To me trading is a skill set that you learn and practice, the trade takes very little research on underlying fundamentals and relies on indicators and trends and the skill of the trader to identify them, which is exactly what @moXJO said.
Value investors work more on a practical underlying intrinsic value model, where there is a market for the product and a company that can supply that market and grow the business, which is a completely different set of parameters. Which is @Value Collector s preferred model.

Both investment disciplines, rely on the skill of the investor to identify the correct parameters and basically boils back to the investors tolerance for risk/reward.

As for me I'm way too cautious, so it is the slow road for me, I may not end up rich but I don't think I'll end up homeless either.
But crypto's certainly are one of those things, it would have been nice to have got on in the early days, oh well back to the plod.
I think it is one of those things in life, if you really have been on the bones of your ar$e with nowhere to go and a family to feed, the fear of going back there never leaves you and makes you ultra cautious.


----------



## Joules MM1

if cats could trade they'd rule the world because they cannot be herded

last nights lift in (xbt) btc was a nice hook, i got short on 38k area, the risk directly above,
that was a nice round target for minnows to be corralled to
we still have a series of lower highs, single downlines/uplines that get snapped are arbiters of trade, they have no context, linear ideas
to have the sense of control over price direction, elusive at best
as the smart money knows every-thing-trade, there is to know, they also know that snapping lines is great for trapping
wannabe chartists who are super keen to bid the never ending gift of personal stardom,
 it's not about the money, it's about the infamy, all ideas are an equal playing field, yet if one group has more money, like whales
group together to corale tiny fish, they can use their skill to drive price up, everyone follows, whales reverse, fish keep coming

sell into strength, buy into weakness, sure, but how do you know the intent is to have the auction look bullish or bearish

btc is one of the few manias where we cannot see the mechanics of the mania - that's what makes a mania!

when you drive, you look at the car in front of the car you are behind
trendlines (arbitrary without context) or moving averages (that lag) all serve the same purpose, they fill roll of distraction from
price and intent

as soon as the 38k level was hit socmed lit up like a christmas tree, a top anecdotal sign the hook was in

#wordsonascreenforyoutoconsider


----------



## Joules MM1

TradingView Chart
					

See more on tradingview.com




					www.tradingview.com
				




set-up


----------



## Joules MM1

in real time








						TradingView Chart
					

See more on tradingview.com




					www.tradingview.com


----------



## Joules MM1

#idea 
no pos on this,  looking for levels to justify bias and risk








						TradingView Chart
					

See more on tradingview.com




					www.tradingview.com


----------



## moXJO

Pearl and matic have been decent trades for me the last couple of days.


----------



## Joules MM1

price made a standard breakout move then got sold into, not the best look for bids
back in the sell seat with this price action








						TradingView Chart
					






					www.tradingview.com


----------



## Joules MM1

still holding sells (bitmex) xbt/btc
after the infamous dimple fake out, we appear to have several markers of trending south, in the larger swingdown we probably need to make siginificant lower lows to fulfill a path of bias and sentiment reversal before a decent "opportunity" to bid comes along

39575 now offers the level to protect for STO positions
anecdotally socmed has gone quiet again, all the chatty hodl heros have disappeared yet the told-you-so negative trolls have not come into
the sunlight to bloat, that adds to the idea we are in  a balanced state, thus far, as we see in standard congestion zone, 
.....as price prints this zone favours the open sells








						TradingView Chart
					






					www.tradingview.com


----------



## Joules MM1

only a dumbarse leaves trades open on platform that cannot transact over the weekend
so, um, yep done that, enough evidence to suggest to me that closing STO's maybe dumb too, given the structure built todate
the risk favours the trend down than it does the trend up, 
when Musk did the socmed release of 1.5BB long $btc it was inline with
what trend was doing (albeit in a coiling zone), news now is just a likely to be inline with trend down

that idea aside, looking at structure alone, lower prices are supported for a lower low daily basis, keeping in mind that if there are whales
at that nice round 30k level then we know a truckload of stops are there for the hitting

we also know that the fake out move of the both the downline break (when's a triangle not a triangle?!?!)
(also the centreline of the expanded downchannel) was a Mcguffin and the 
pimple blow-out that faded a lot of small accounts into thinking they had the hodl dream come true, they got faded

only genuine manias can create mini Mcguffins like this as we see thru the socmed hail-the-hodl hype following the "triangle" break-out
the whole mania is a Mcguffin
crypto currencies are here to stay, stretched valuations are not









						TradingView Chart
					






					www.tradingview.com


----------



## Joules MM1

kicking out of this minor channel would kick me out too, but maybe not into longs, the best lift thus far since the pimple rotation









						TradingView Chart
					






					www.tradingview.com


----------



## basilio

This story highlights just how many crazy bunnies are being hooked into trading crypto BS.

I think if one is a few watts brighter than these people and a couple of degrees shrewder you could make an absolute killing at their expense. The market seems rife with stories and boosts. If one is the booster and story teller  you'll make a quid.

On the big picture however I still wonder about
1) The overall stability of any of the crypto currencies. Could one lose everything because  you can't even trade out succesfully ?
2) What could be the impact on the overall financial system if these games go belly up. ?How exposed are the banks and other financial institutions ?









						‘I put my life savings in crypto’: how a generation of amateurs got hooked on high-risk trading
					

Online trading apps are drawing in novice investors willing to risk everything on volatile stocks. Do they really know what they’re doing?




					www.theguardian.com


----------



## over9k

Familiar with the gold rush lesson basilio? 

In a gold rush, you don't make money finding gold, you make it selling shovels


----------



## Garpal Gumnut

basilio said:


> This story highlights just how many crazy bunnies are being hooked into trading crypto BS.
> 
> I think if one is a few watts brighter than these people and a couple of degrees shrewder you could make an absolute killing at their expense. The market seems rife with stories and boosts. If one is the booster and story teller  you'll make a quid.
> 
> On the big picture however I still wonder about
> 1) The overall stability of any of the crypto currencies. Could one lose everything because  you can't even trade out succesfully ?
> 2) What could be the impact on the overall financial system if these games go belly up. ?How exposed are the banks and other financial institutions ?
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> ‘I put my life savings in crypto’: how a generation of amateurs got hooked on high-risk trading
> 
> 
> Online trading apps are drawing in novice investors willing to risk everything on volatile stocks. Do they really know what they’re doing?
> 
> 
> 
> 
> www.theguardian.com



Thanks @basilio . I would generally agree with your assessment of bitcoin and the current traders, although the article from the Guardian does segue in to the soft left useful idiot mantra peddled by the menopausal women, men and others who haunt that poverty of thought masthead.

Anyone in crypto is gambling, this is good, as long as it does not become a problem. The fey examples in the article would be such, although they are young enough to recover. Winners never seem to be tagged as problem gamblers. 

I will probably have a go at crypto, but not yet, I only buy or trade long and it does not look good for long plays atm. 

Bitcoin does seem to follow TA concepts rather than fundamental, so there is hope for us hungry, limping, wounded and decrepit old lions yet. 

I am more excited by ETH as a platform than BTC btw.

gg


----------



## gartley

Gambling it may be, but one thing it does not have yet is managed manipilation by central banks like in most other markets. As such we have seen genuine price discovery and wild ebbs and flows bought about social mood of participants.  The EW price chart is very clean and easy to count,  unlike the difficult to analyze and skewed wavecounts in the indices for example.


----------



## over9k

China just outlawed mining it, and the hashrate (and value) have plummeted as a result. So, another dip to buy IMHO. 


Reference the gold & shovels analogy earlier: There's a reason why I'm so bullish on RIOT and focus on it rather than the currencies directly. Same goes for semiconductors/microchips. I have stacks of SOXL.


----------



## Joules MM1

Garpal Gumnut said:


> Bitcoin does seem to follow TA concepts rather than fundamental....



this is of course, incorrect
btc adheres to fundamentals in the same way new zealand bunji jumping only hits value when it's been
streeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeetched
and the sucker thinks they've reach a life moment at the end of the rope, hung out to dry

so, fundamentally, that's how this game works, like the gold game, only more lemmings

choice! eh bro!


----------



## over9k

Technical analysis in this market is a fool's errand at the best of times. With crypto, it's madness.


----------



## basilio

over9k said:


> Technical analysis in this market is a fool's errand at the best of times. With crypto, it's madness.




I think we should agree that crypto trading is just unregulated gambling.  The stock market at least has the premise of real companies producing real products and services. The buying selling and betting against shares at least has an economic base even if much of the trading is speculative and essentially  a  gamble.

So in the gambling scenario of crypto trading there will be winners and losers with a cut in the middle for the commissions and the structures that facilitate the trading. The shovel sellers  

But unlike gold booms there is no gold - just transfers of assets and liabilities.

If the only issue was the financial health of the participants then fair enough. My  reservations are about the potential of this totally unregulated huge gambling game to undermine the financial structures that support the rest of the economy both in business and society.


----------



## Garpal Gumnut

basilio said:


> But unlike gold booms there is no gold - just transfers of assets and liabilities.
> 
> If the only issue was the financial health of the participants then fair enough. My  reservations are about the potential of this totally unregulated huge gambling game to undermine the financial structures that support the rest of the economy both in business and society.



I was sitting at the bar last night with a professor of history up here from Victoria who was at pains to point out two things, no three. 

That he had left Victoria on a round Australia trip some months ago and did not have the plague.

Crypto reminded him of the Children's Crusade whereby the protagonists lost both heaven and earth.  

I doubt if a bust in crypto will affect the markets generally.

gg


----------



## gartley

over9k said:


> Technical analysis in this market is a fool's errand at the best of times. With crypto, it's madness.



TA is a fools errand? Tell that to Marty Schwartz.....


----------



## over9k

gartley said:


> TA is a fools errand? Tell that to Marty Schwartz.....



I said in this market. Seems like a subtle distinction, but it wasn't.


----------



## gartley

over9k said:


> I said in this market. Seems like a subtle distinction, but it wasn't.



Fair enough.  Personally however I have found BTC one of the better instruments to trade using TA.
Very clear patterns
especially compared to the indices in the last 10 years that have become managed/manipulated by central banks.
The recent peak and selloff was a perfect TA sell setup


----------



## basilio

Interesting analysis of the current Crypto currency boom and many of the players.

 Opinion: Why bitcoin’s bust and the ‘crypto cult’ threaten all investors​     Last Updated: May 22, 2021 at 11:15 a.m. ET     First Published: May 19, 2021 at 12:23 p.m. ET
     By         
Lawrence A. Cunningham​ Cryptocurrency’s huge spikes and setbacks unsettle traditional stock and bond markets​Traders who have been coordinating on social media to promote stratospheric prices in meme stocks, such as GameStop        GME,        -6.29%,       and cryptocurrencies such as bitcoin          BTCUSD,        1.24%       and dogecoin        DOGEUSD,        -0.83%      — what exactly are they doing?

 They are not day trading, but “holding on for dear life,” (HODL) as the group describes it. They are not indexing, because they view the entire stock market as corrupt. They are certainly not quality investors, as their process defies financial analysis.

While indexers, day traders, and stock pickers each have a distinctive approach, all are conscious and diligent participants in a traditional market. The same is even true of shareholder activists, who may demand changes, from board composition to dividend policy, but accept the corporate setting and related measures of returns. Others use their position as shareholders to advocate social causes, from consumer protection to workforce diversity, but purpose is clearly stated and proposals formally made, often in a target company’s proxy statement.
Most of today’s devotees of meme stocks and crypto operate outside any such familiar forms of market behavior or investing theory. Rather, they protest against Wall Street capitalism, revel in disruptive poisoning of markets, or rejoice at creating the fantasy of an alternate reality.

The behavior of most of these participants can best be explained by a nascent branch of economics called “identity economics.” Pioneered in a 2010 book of the same name by George Akerlof and Rachel Kranton, the book’s focus is on behaviors at odds with traditional economic models of rationality, such as why people vote against their economic interests or why they stay in jobs making less than they could elsewhere.









						Why bitcoin's bust and the 'crypto cult' threaten all investors
					

Cryptocurrency's huge spikes and setbacks unsettle traditional stock and bond markets.




					www.marketwatch.com


----------



## basilio

Expert guides to the latest Crypto coin that will explode in 2021.  









						Top cryptocurrency 2021 by value: Bitcoin, Ether, Dogecoin, BinanceCoin and more
					

What is the top cryptocurrency by value right now? Here's our guide to Bitcoin, Ethereum, Dogecoin, BinanceCoin and more




					www.tomsguide.com
				











						Is ApeCoin the Next Cryptocurrency to Explode In 2022?
					

After being listed, ApeCoin spiked from $1 to over $7. Let’s examine if ApeCoin is the next cryptocurrency to explode in 2022.




					investmentu.com


----------



## moXJO

basilio said:


> On the big picture however I still wonder about
> 1) The overall stability of any of the crypto currencies. Could one lose everything because  you can't even trade out succesfully ?
> 2) What could be the impact on the overall financial system if these games go belly up. ?How exposed are the banks and other financial institutions ?



You can lose everything. The value these coins have is the volume of hodlers and true believers. It's basically Fear/Greed trading in its primal form. 
These coins seem to be nothing more than a popularity contest most of the time.


----------



## over9k

The hilarious part is that they have the same intrinsic value as fiat currency: nothing. 

I had quite the giggle when I saw a conversation between a crypto guy & a forex guy and the crypto guy referred to the U.S dollars the forex guy was trading as "fedcoin". 

There's quite a bit to that joke when you think about it


----------



## Dark1975

bearish convergence formed on the 24hr time frame for btc.. thought not divergence .See attachment.
though great volatility for swing trading  8% swing trade in 2hr time frame .see attachment on one of my trades.
this isn't financial advice .pls DYOR


----------



## Joules MM1

TradingView Chart
					






					www.tradingview.com
				



back in the sellers seat, orthodox (3 of 3) channel, this is the one for the bulls to beat
that's what i see and this is what the religious see:


----------



## over9k




----------



## Joules MM1

haha ....sell signal, how long has the etf debacle been going on, yes no yes no yes?










						TradingView Chart
					






					www.tradingview.com
				



i need to see a clean break of the channel to get  me long




......Jim is out n hyping about .....more sell signals


----------



## Joules MM1

out of the channel with nice small chops higher
"dumb to argue with what the tapes printing"


----------



## frugal.rock

SHIB up around 22% in last 24 hours. (I'm now out, temporarily)
Just need a meme of a Shibu Inu dog with a SHIB label, and a $1 dog tag hanging from collar.

Finish it off with DOGE getting ripped apart by it....with a few Elon Musk head dog droppings flying out of DOGE butt.

Anyone an artist? Or knows one?
A good meme on this one might get it to somewhere nice....


----------



## Joules MM1

momo trade in the making, see all the upwards compression in smaller bars








						TradingView Chart
					






					www.tradingview.com
				



clean break out of the descending channel


----------



## Joules MM1

the momo trade never happened, we now what is arguably simply a 3 step up, hit a ratio and limper than
a 3 day old warm lettuce 








						TradingView Chart
					






					www.tradingview.com
				




looks like a correction to the downtrend, socmed was uber excited 
larger context https://www.tradingview.com/x/rvc278PF/


----------



## Lonestarr79

Hi there, I've not traded crypto before, which publications and media sites should I be researching for guidance etc?  Any recommendations?


----------



## frugal.rock

Lonestarr79 said:


> Hi there, I've not traded crypto before, which publications and media sites should I be researching for guidance etc?  Any recommendations?



Whilst not concentrated on cryptos specifically, for most things other than actual trading, I use  
Investing.com

Reddit seems to be popular amongst youngsters memes etc

My opinion, don't take others opinions on what crypto to buy.
If you are going to trade, trade the charts, ie; what's in front of you. 
The top 3 cryptos by market caps are the top 3 for a reason. 
Start on those for research imo.
Research market cap down, and then you will realise why all the others are just pump dump meme stink vessels.
Good luck.

I got lucky with my last post here selling SHIB at the top...
Timing is everything and I'm sick of chart watching...


----------



## moXJO

Lonestarr79 said:


> Hi there, I've not traded crypto before, which publications and media sites should I be researching for guidance etc?  Any recommendations?



Short trades at the moment. 
Twitter, reddit, telegram,  discord. 
But know that everyone is shilling and that it's majority bs.


----------



## moXJO

frugal.rock said:


> Timing is everything and I'm sick of chart watching...



Must be crypto fatigue because I'm sick of watching coins. Just bred a digital racehorse.
Top of the line. Just need to sell it now. Maybe I'll race it and see if it's a winner, or glue.


----------



## againsthegrain

moXJO said:


> Must be crypto fatigue because I'm sick of watching coins. Just bred a digital racehorse.
> Top of the line. Just need to sell it now. Maybe I'll race it and see if it's a winner, or glue.




Can you build virtual houses and negative gear them? 😂


----------



## moXJO

againsthegrain said:


> Can you build virtual houses and negative gear them? 😂



Oh you mean on my harbour front mansion I rent out to skankhunt47. Virtual ATO is giving me grief about my tax structure setup.

But seriously a guy I know was going to buy the Virtual Sydney harbour Bridge for $30 and it ended up north of $30000 or $300000, can't remember which now.


----------



## Joules MM1

TradingView Chart
					






					www.tradingview.com
				




impulsive sells
hat tip to @menialmoose for the alert


----------



## moXJO

Apparently 1 million bitcoin lost on a dead whales (popescu) account. Not sure how many mcafee had but those maybe locked as well.


----------



## Joules MM1

no weekend trades for me, back in the sellers seat this morning, where are the big bulls ?








						TradingView Chart
					






					www.tradingview.com


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## Joules MM1

TradingView Chart
					






					www.tradingview.com
				



big pic to little tradeable pic
the 127's








						TradingView Chart
					






					www.tradingview.com
				



xbt/btc has a lot of these


----------



## frugal.rock

Joules MM1 said:


> where are the big bulls ?



Trading the black gold....oil


----------



## basilio

This website may be of interest to crypto currency players.









						Forkast News
					

Covering stories of blockchain and emerging technology at the intersection of business, economy, and politics. From Asia, to the world.




					forkast.news


----------



## Joules MM1

if you did not know _anything_ about the instrument
how would the current chart look ?
guess which time frame the uber bulls watch the most ....


----------



## over9k

I literally just buy on double digit dips and sell on double digit runs.


----------



## Garpal Gumnut

I see many BTC traders have a similarity to us Gold bugs, and looked for a comparison chart of the two. 

Below is a chart over 12 mo. of BTC price/Gold oz prices. It is interesting to give another perspective on this fascinating market.

It basically charts how many ounces of gold are required to buy one bitcoin.  

gg


----------



## Joules MM1

Garpal Gumnut said:


> I see many BTC traders have a similarity to us Gold bugs, and looked for a comparison chart of the two.
> 
> Below is a chart over 12 mo. of BTC price/Gold oz prices. It is interesting to give another perspective on this fascinating market.
> 
> It basically charts how many ounces of gold are required to buy one bitcoin.
> 
> gg











						TradingView Chart
					






					www.tradingview.com
				



the mare of steel

GG xauusd/btc


----------



## Joules MM1

JFTR
where to exit, where the risk sits for the contra









						TradingView Chart
					






					www.tradingview.com


----------



## Joules MM1

$BTC persistantly bid recently, fails to follow-thru on sell setups, fits a picture of longerterm low

warning to open sells








						TradingView Chart
					






					www.tradingview.com


----------



## Warr87

I hadn't seen my system buy any BTC lately so I checked my chart. I work on the 4H chart and it looks to be ranging on that. The 4H has saved me some whipasawing right now thankfully. I've made a tiny bit on a few short legs on ETH. (It's soy, corn, and gold that have been active lately.)


----------



## Joules MM1

switched to sells this morning $btc, buyers were gunna and didnt so ...where price goes we go


----------



## noirua

Bank Of America To Roll Out Bitcoin Futures Trading To Wall Street Investors
					

For many years, the idea that a traditional financial institution could venture into the bitcoin space was considered laughable. Recently,




					zycrypto.com


----------



## noirua

Bitcoin: A Massive Bullish Supply Shortage is Coming, Market Pundit Predicts
					

Long-term holders are fast picking up BTCs dumped by exiting whales. Popular on-chain analyst, Willy Woo, believes Bitcoin is strapped




					zycrypto.com


----------



## over9k




----------



## Joules MM1

socmed was ablaze with defenders of the crown buying the "dip".....
this is my niagra and the kitchen sink trade


----------



## gartley

Likewise.  Have held my sell from a few weeks back.
But once this leg down is complete there maybe a great upside opportunity as we should start the best rally since the bear started.
For now have not done any price projection analysis, but based on triangle pattern the measured move should carry to the aporox 23k level or slightly under??


----------



## wayneL

News is reporting that ETH co-founder has bailed on all crypto.

Ceeeyurious


----------



## Joules MM1

wayneL said:


> News is reporting that ETH co-founder has bailed on all crypto.
> 
> Ceeeyurious



um, something about writing and walls something something?🔔


----------



## over9k

wayneL said:


> News is reporting that ETH co-founder has bailed on all crypto.
> 
> Ceeeyurious



Source?


----------



## Gunnerguy

over9k said:


> Source?








__





						Redirect Notice
					





					www.google.com.au


----------



## Joules MM1

the toldyasoaz are out in force ....not far from a temporary low ?


----------



## Joules MM1




----------



## moXJO

At least it's moving decisively again. Hopefully it drops more and then BOOM stimulus moneyezzzz.


----------



## moXJO

I swear crypto moves so fast that doge coin feels like it was a 90s fad.


----------



## over9k

moXJO said:


> I swear crypto moves so fast that doge coin feels like it was a 90s fad.



So... Did you buy the dip?


----------



## Joules MM1

silent in here, ripping price  $btc


----------



## Joules MM1

how solid is this wall ?









						TradingView Chart
					

See more on tradingview.com




					www.tradingview.com


----------



## Joules MM1

smells like a hook, vertical rarely trustworthy, risk at the high


----------



## noirua

Live Bitcoin price chart: Https://uk.advfn.com/p.php?pid=staticchart&s=COIN^BTCUSD&p=0&t=32

Anything can happen but interesting to see whether Bitcoin can move decisively out of the $29,000 - $40,000 range.  The shutdown of the Chinese companies and confiscation of machines has with recent changes made it easier to mine Bitcoin. Some go for a move to the $40,000 - $50,000 range and the bulls for $100,000.


----------



## frugal.rock

Holding a little bit of XRP Ripple.
As @moXJO says, stimulus money making it to the fore.
A benefactor of lockdown lunacy? seeing a lot of parallels to around a year ago... just not seeing impending doom yet though...


----------



## moXJO

frugal.rock said:


> Holding a little bit of XRP Ripple.
> As @moXJO says, stimulus money making it to the fore.
> A benefactor of lockdown lunacy? seeing a lot of parallels to around a year ago... just not seeing impending doom yet though...



Building up to a second wave in the nft scene. A lots going on. Currently I'm breeding digital racehorses and studding the males. 
You could actually make a decent living out of it (while it lasts).


----------



## Joules MM1

TradingView Chart
					

See more on tradingview.com




					www.tradingview.com
				




simple over-extended signal on repeat ?


----------



## frugal.rock

moXJO said:


> Currently I'm breeding digital racehorses and studding the males.



Helping Uncle Jack off a horse eh?
🦄
Good luck with it. 🍒🍒🍒


----------



## Joules MM1

"4 sigma deviation" $btc ...weekend warriors ? (hat tip CIA Thom)


----------



## moXJO

frugal.rock said:


> Helping Uncle Jack off a horse eh?
> 🦄
> Good luck with it. 🍒🍒🍒



It's brutal work, but a dollars a dollar.
The new world seems unproductive.


----------



## moXJO

over9k said:


> So... Did you buy the dip?
> 
> View attachment 127664



I've been immersed in the nft world at the moment.
Missed every dip


----------



## Joules MM1

micro channels good for micro swings 



is this a thing swing ?


----------



## Joules MM1

we appear to have more with the offer, weighing the buyers effort


----------



## Warr87

Thankfully a new high was made 21 Jul so I was already in before the breakout. Chart is 4H BTCUSD which is the timeframe I trade for BTC. stoploss is at red line, so almost breakeven.


----------



## Joules MM1

what is the auction trying to achieve ?


----------



## Joules MM1

coin getting banked when 40k hit

easy buying underway, the worst holds/strandings come from easy/comfortable buying


----------



## moXJO

Did Amazon pull the pin on accepting btc?


----------



## Joules MM1

ran out of rocket fuel?
, well within the large downchannel








						TradingView Chart
					

See more on tradingview.com




					www.tradingview.com
				




sells on, not precious on it tho
snapping 42610 last level for sells to dominate (price would be out of the channel at that level given the time taken to achieve)


----------



## frugal.rock

Well it would seem lockdown lunacy is ruling the roost with most cryptos well up.

XRP/ Ripple nicely into double digit % profit now and has got ahead of others for the time being.
Have moved my stop up to 70 in case it doesn't stick and wants to bungee down again...🧐

4 hour chart as it seems to the fashion of the times...


----------



## over9k

Day 1: 




Day 2: 




Day 3: 




I've said it before and I'll say it again: If you're not buying these dips & flipping them, you're a fool at this point.


----------



## frugal.rock

over9k said:


> I've said it before and I'll say it again: If you're not buying these dips & flipping them, you're a fool at this point.



Not sure why you're posting this in this thread.
Belongs in international markets or NASDAQ stocks area.

It's akin to posting ASX FFG Blockchain here. They are equities not cryptocurrencies.

It's a bit rough to be reasserting the fool factor... IMO.
High volatility = high risk.
I wouldn't class anyone not trading the area as foolish, rather I think conservative is a better label with no negative connotations. 🤨


----------



## frugal.rock

XRP Ripple
One of the few cryptos that I think will stand the test of time...










						XRP Is Now Powering the First Ever ODL Service Implementation in Japan
					

Ripple is set to tap into the nearly $2 billion a year remittance market between Japan and the Philippines through the use of its on-demand liquidity (ODL) services, which leverages the XRP token.




					www.cryptoglobe.com


----------



## Joules MM1

back to sellside today, we had a simple 3 (down up down) overnight, that bodes well for longside in the slightly larger picture
i suspect we still need to complete a larger simple series down

beyond that, in real time, dunno, https://www.tradingview.com/x/oFKKvNmE/


----------



## over9k

frugal.rock said:


> Not sure why you're posting this in this thread.
> Belongs in international markets or NASDAQ stocks area.
> 
> It's akin to posting ASX FFG Blockchain here. They are equities not cryptocurrencies.
> 
> It's a bit rough to be reasserting the fool factor... IMO.
> High volatility = high risk.
> I wouldn't class anyone not trading the area as foolish, rather I think conservative is a better label with no negative connotations. 🤨



RIOT is literally a bitcoin mining company... 

Buying its dips and flipping them has been the easiest money/trades I've ever made. Ignore me if you want but I've made like 170% (I'd have to go & check) in the past couple of months just off buying its dips & flogging them within a day or two at most. There's nothing to it.


----------



## Joules MM1

over9k said:


> RIOT is literally a bitcoin mining company...
> 
> Buying its dips and flipping them has been the easiest money/trades I've ever made. Ignore me if you want but I've made like 170% (I'd have to go & check) in the past couple of months just off buying its dips & flogging them within a day or two at most. There's nothing to it.




..it's always good to see someone banking coin, how much is only relative to you, what would get you the kudos youre searching for is
posting in real time, or immediately after placing a bet, show us some basic ideas of entry/exit with risk associated and guideline(s) on your thinking about the set-up youre using, yeah, not necessarily specific, sure, protect your edge, keep in mind some eyeballs are on you by players with zip experience, you get all the credit you deserve with promoting a trade regime rather than beating someone over the head in hindsight

and this post is just a series of words on a screen......


----------



## over9k

Joules MM1 said:


> ..it's always good to see someone banking coin, how much is only relative to you, what would get you the kudos youre searching for is
> posting in real time, or immediately after placing a bet, show us some basic ideas of entry/exit with risk associated and guideline(s) on your thinking about the set-up youre using, yeah, not necessarily specific, sure, protect your edge, keep in mind some eyeballs are on you by players with zip experience, you get all the credit you deserve with promoting a trade regime rather than beating someone over the head in hindsight
> 
> and this post is just a series of words on a screen......



I am literally just buying on every double-digit drop, and selling on every double-digit run. That's it. It's seriously no more complex than that.


----------



## Joules MM1

bull flag, what bull flag ?


----------



## Joules MM1

that was then this is now


----------



## Joules MM1

add one inverted ratio, two broken channels and pinch of too many chiefs n not enough something something









						TradingView Chart
					

See more on tradingview.com




					www.tradingview.com
				



$btc happy feet sellers


----------



## Joules MM1

TradingView Chart
					

See more on tradingview.com




					www.tradingview.com
				



xbt/btc buyers had to achieve two things : break the swing structural high, break the weekly down channel

my bet is south even tho i chose not place on the weekend so the risk is wide but it'll be pretty clear very soon
which side of liquidity dominates

fwiw, imho, the simplest 9 day signal (bottom of chart) that frilly bit on the bottom of the wedding cake, yeah, not a good-health signal


----------



## Warr87

Joules MM1 said:


> TradingView Chart
> 
> 
> See more on tradingview.com
> 
> 
> 
> 
> www.tradingview.com
> 
> 
> 
> 
> xbt/btc buyers had to achieve two things : break the swing structural high, break the weekly down channel
> 
> my bet is south even tho i chose not place on the weekend so the risk is wide but it'll be pretty clear very soon
> which side of liquidity dominates
> 
> fwiw, imho, the simplest 9 day signal (bottom of chart) that frilly bit on the bottom of the wedding cake, yeah, not a good-health signal




really? your RSI indicator is showing oversold territory (though did come back down) and shorter term channel also shows upwards movement. weekly channel thats painted shows slower movement downwards. i would think a break past 46500 would mark a new point of potential support?

curious if i've misread that?

i'm good either way. i'm doing great on ETH shorter term, though BTC is slightly down for me. weekends can be a problem since my broker is an FX broker.


----------



## Joules MM1

game of groans https://www.tradingview.com/x/U6GtyQLW/


----------



## Joules MM1

Warr87 said:


> really? your RSI indicator is showing oversold territory (though did come back down) and shorter term channel also shows upwards movement. weekly channel thats painted shows slower movement downwards. i would think a break past 46500 would mark a new point of potential support?
> 
> curious if i've misread that?
> 
> i'm good either way. i'm doing great on ETH shorter term, though BTC is slightly down for me. weekends can be a problem since my broker is an FX broker.




yeah, oversold is usually a good thing but the context is incorrect, then you have a staggered divergence acorss mutliple time frames which is what i neglected to point out, that shows you that it is not local rather structural weakness, too far too fast with no intergrity


----------



## Joules MM1

Joules MM1 said:


> yeah, oversold is usually a good thing but the context is incorrect, then you have a staggered divergence acorss mutliple time frames which is what i neglected to point out, that shows you that it is not local rather structural weakness, too far too fast with no intergrity




i could be wrong, not chained to the set-up of lower lows, just looks a better proposition from the way  i am viewing the structure
in that so far the print fits that bulls had  rush to the boundary and are now stretched


----------



## Warr87

Joules MM1 said:


> yeah, oversold is usually a good thing but the context is incorrect, then you have a staggered divergence acorss mutliple time frames which is what i neglected to point out, that shows you that it is not local rather structural weakness, too far too fast with no intergrity



ah, cool. something i'll keep in mind (i definitely don't put myself as a strong chart reader). the divergence across different timeframes is a good point.


----------



## Joules MM1

TradingView Chart
					

See more on tradingview.com




					www.tradingview.com
				



looking for price to attain the  38457(xbt) level, note price hugging centerline of this current channel

breaking 38457 first evidence of interim downtrend resumption
price would need to snap the current minor channel then go back to attacking the larger downtrend channel and take out that 
prior swing high : https://s3.tradingview.com/snapshots/4/4H4RUaTQ.png


----------



## Joules MM1

price can both snap the ratios 
(those are the 3 step equivalents
at the yellow lines, of the current attempt 
to exit the channel) 
...and break the channel
we can call that a rotation

close to decision time, keep in mind that not accomplishing the above further adds to and confirmative for futher south
..it's a tight channel so should be easy for the bull crowd to pull off, 









						TradingView Chart
					

See more on tradingview.com




					www.tradingview.com


----------



## Joules MM1

#observation


this cfd platform closed weekends








						TradingView Chart
					

See more on tradingview.com




					www.tradingview.com
				




ready to dump the sell, only if we get creep thru the ratio, not a buy signal https://www.tradingview.com/x/2B4fAteU/


----------



## Joules MM1

TradingView Chart
					






					www.tradingview.com
				




price fails to make cursory (relative sized) fractal (at several degrees of trend)  ?
observing the levels allows transacting at the levels set, theyre levels of permission based on the structure
but not in a single layer, rather analogous to dynamic print, not so concerned at every move about intent
the auction is going thru "process" ......we need only be on the look out for the obvious trap which is itself difficult to do
while dealing with process

everything works until it doesnt


----------



## Joules MM1

TradingView Chart
					






					www.tradingview.com
				




prefer the sell still, no clean signal buyers want to push the subject, liquidity gang keep on keeping on


----------



## over9k

I've got about 15% cash ready to pull the trigger joules


----------



## Joules MM1

over9k said:


> I've got about 15% cash ready to pull the trigger joules



(sneaks up behind @over9k   with large blown-up  paper bag ...)


----------



## Joules MM1

TradingView Chart
					






					www.tradingview.com
				



37629 xbt level for bulls to protect, a clean leg up so far, small res at the standard length


----------



## noirua

Publicly-Traded Firm Gears Up To Become One of the Largest Bitcoin Miners After $120,000,000 Deal - The Daily Hodl
					

Crypto mining giant Marathon Digital is primed to become one of the largest Bitcoin miners in the world after inking a multi-million-dollar deal.




					dailyhodl.com


----------



## noirua

Elon Musk Says Tesla Owns Close to 42,000 Bitcoin Worth $1.60 Billion - The Daily Hodl
					

Tesla chief executive Elon Musk has opened up about the electric car company's total Bitcoin (BTC) holdings.




					dailyhodl.com


----------



## Joules MM1

not the kitchen sink just the handbasin ....
post one of three


----------



## Joules MM1

two of three


----------



## Joules MM1

post three of three


----------



## over9k

Not sure how many of you mine as well but my rigs have enjoyed a nice bump in profitability today too


----------



## Joules MM1

TradingView Chart
					






					www.tradingview.com
				




slump


----------



## Joules MM1

looks like a simple ABC down (B was a triangle) C = A at 100%
that's a guess as i have not seen the confirmation signal yet,
breaking back below 38723 front month would be a good indicator much larger sell game is on
.... a trap was set


----------



## Joules MM1

trap, batman !

and we're selling


----------



## peter2

Holy Crypto, Batman I've been trapped by a fake out. 

Patience Robin, you don't buy out of session break-outs. We'll buy when price gets into the Batzone.


----------



## over9k

What makes you say that that's the batzone @peter2 ?


----------



## peter2

Price structure, Robin. You've got to learn your ABCs. 

Golly, Batman price is in the zone now.  Can I buy now?  Not yet Robin, we go down to a smaller timeframe and wait for a low risk buy setup. This could be a 123BatLow or a Bat Reversal candle.


----------



## over9k

So do I expand my mine or not?  




(I am)


----------



## peter2

Batman, there's the Bat Engulfing candle (5m chart). I'm trying to buy but the platform won't let me.

Yes, Robin that's because our setup is so small that we can buy more but the broker margin limits our order. The leverage limits on crypto have been set very low so that the good citizens of Gotham won't get into financial difficulty. 

Golly, Batman I forgot about that. Sure was decent of the Gotham City ASIC committee to think of that.

Yes Robin, it's amazing to see what they come up with over tea and scones.

_Edited (by Alfred). The broker that Master Robin is using didn't allow him to trade ETHUSD but BTCUSD is OK to trade. _


----------



## noirua




----------



## Joules MM1

observation https://www.tradingview.com/x/vpkSjGUu/


----------



## noirua

Coinbase Expands Crypto Purchases to Debit Cards Linked to Apple and Google Pay - The Daily Hodl
					

Coinbase customers can now buy crypto with credit and debit cards linked to Apple Pay. The crypto exchange says that its customers will also be able to use Google Pay to purchase digital assets in the fall.




					dailyhodl.com
				



_“Coinbase is the first crypto exchange to offer instant cashouts via Real Time Payments (RTP), enabling customers in the U.S. with linked bank accounts to instantly and securely cash out up to $100,000 per transaction._


----------



## over9k

Yeah Elizabeth Warren was just on the news talking about regulating it, creating a fedcoin digital currency etc etc. 

It's abundantly clear that they understand crypto about as well as they understand the internet - not at all.


----------



## noirua

Whales Move $705,000,000 in Bitcoin and Ethereum As Market Bounces – Here’s Where the Crypto Is Going - The Daily Hodl
					

Crypto whales are moving heaps of Bitcoin and Ethereum as crypto market volatility picks up. The on-chain crypto tracking system Whale Alert is flagging a handful of remarkably large transactions.




					dailyhodl.com


----------



## Joules MM1

$btc has a very bullish set-up








						TradingView Chart
					

See more on tradingview.com




					www.tradingview.com
				




closer look at the set-up https://www.tradingview.com/x/ypftWavV/


----------



## noirua

Bitcoin, Ethereum and These Three Altcoins Have Huge Potential As Crypto Markets Heat Up: Altcoin Daily - The Daily Hodl
					

Altcoin Daily host Aaron Arnold is sharing why he is bullish on Bitcoin and Ethereum heading into the rest of the year, and he's also highlighting the potential of three altcoins.




					dailyhodl.com
				



Altcoin Daily host Aaron Arnold is sharing why he is bullish on Bitcoin and Ethereum heading into the rest of the year, and he’s also highlighting the potential of three altcoins.


----------



## noirua

With Bitcoin now in the $40,000 - $50,000 trading range and interest rates set low worldwide then Bitcoin and Ethereum should gain traction further.  It looks as if the coins are going to be chased up strongly and probably well past $100,000.  So the $100,000 - $150,000 range looks set. 
There are a few countries that have poor economies that will move to Bitcoin as they see setting up their own Bitcoin mining as a more sure way to get their countries out of trouble.


----------



## noirua

Mawson is an Australian Bitcoin mining company that only has a market quote presently on the USOTC market that is not easily traded from Australia or indeed domains outside the USA and Canada.  Shortly their application to join the NASDAQ is very likely to be accepted.  Why they avoid an ASX quote is a mystery or a smack in the face of Aussie investors. The market cap is over half a million US$s so it's not small fry.








						Australia's Mawson Infrastructure Increases Count of Bitcoin Mining Machines in US Operation
					

Gross margins are expected to be more than 80% based on the current bitcoin price and its network difficulty.




					www.coindesk.com


----------



## over9k

Probably some regulatory/reporting requirement they couldn't be assed with.


----------



## mullokintyre

moXJO said:


> Bitcoin has the potential to rocket if the el Salvador thing pulls through.
> I still think it's a crap way to transact though



According to ABC NEWS, its already happening.
ABC NEWS


> El Salvador has become the first country in the world to adopt bitcoin as legal tender, a real-world experiment proponents say will lower commission costs for billions of dollars sent home from abroad but which critics warn may fuel money laundering.
> The plan spearheaded by President Nayib Bukele is aimed at allowing Salvadorans to save on $US400 million ($538 million) spent annually in commissions for remittances, mostly sent from the United States.



But the thing that stunned me was this


> Last year alone remittances to El Salvador amounted to almost $US6 billion, or 23 per cent of its gross domestic product, one of the highest ratios in the world.



No wonder  south American countries are happy to facilitate its citizens to enter the USA, either legally or illegally.
Nearly a quarter of its GDP comes form the  mostly low paid immigrants.

Mick


----------



## moXJO

mullokintyre said:


> According to ABC NEWS, its already happening.
> ABC NEWS
> 
> But the thing that stunned me was this
> 
> No wonder  south American countries are happy to facilitate its citizens to enter the USA, either legally or illegally.
> Nearly a quarter of its GDP comes form the  mostly low paid immigrants.
> 
> Mick



Good find. US may crack down harder on crypto. Biden seems anti crypto.


----------



## over9k

Dip buyers swept in like absolute vultures. 

I withdraw my mined coin basically daily so only lost like $50ish overnight.


----------



## qldfrog

moXJO said:


> Good find. US may crack down harder on crypto. Biden seems anti crypto.



Reset and so globalist leftists are the big thread to cryptos, but paradoxically,it is this political side which created the push to crypto with their aim at control and plunder via taxation and seizure.
why would i or anyone bother with some crypto if i was trusting  governments and fiat currencies


----------



## Joules MM1

seeing how nobody is puting up a trade in the "trading thread" how about this:


----------



## e_abrams

That...was hilariously accurate. That poor, poor guy. What was he thinking. Was he thinking at all?


----------



## againsthegrain

e_abrams said:


> That...was hilariously accurate. That poor, poor guy. What was he thinking. Was he thinking at all?




his 40 years old... just haven't hit puberty yet 😂


----------



## e_abrams

againsthegrain said:


> his 40 years old... just haven't hit puberty yet 😂



Some people never do, unfortunately. Good thing the rest of us can learn from their mistakes. Hopefully.


----------



## mullokintyre

According to Decentralised legal
The US congress quietly slipped in a bill to allow the US fed to control and manage digital currency.


> On July 28, 2021, a new bill was introduced in the US House of Representatives. This bill, sponsored by Congressman Don Beyer,1) aims to regulate crypto-currencies. But it does more…
> 
> The bill is called the “Digital Asset Market Structure and Investor Protection Act”2) (“Digital Asset Bill”). And for the majority, it sets out future rules for crypto. However, hidden in this bill, changes to the foundation of the Dollar are proposed.
> 
> And because nobody outside crypto (and frankly, few inside crypto) actually read the bill, these amendments have so far largely gone unnoticed.
> Crypto-currencies have been making waves. Fans of crypto think they have the new medium of exchange. However, in the current proposed regulations, Congress clearly takes a strict approach towards crypto and its various use cases. The following article provides an overview of these new US crypto regulations.
> 
> Included in the Digital Asset Bill, amendments to the Federal Reserve Act and the definition of legal tender are proposed. These amendments drastically expand the powers of the Federal Reserve, and change how money is created and distributed in





> To summarize: the Federal Reserve does not directly create digital money. And, it also doesn’t create physical money (notes and coins). US.
> So far so good. But the next section, contains the real story.
> According to the Digital Asset bill, Federal Reserve notes will in the future also be issued digitally:
> 
> _“Federal reserve notes, to be issued at the discretion of the Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System for the purpose of making advances to Federal reserve banks through the Federal reserve agents as hereinafter set forth and for no other purpose, are authorized. Notwithstanding any other provision of law, the Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System is *authorized to issue digital versions of Federal reserve notes in addition* to current physical Federal reserve notes. Further, the Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System, after consultation with the Secretary of the Treasury, is *authorized to use distributed ledger technology for the creation, distribution and recordation of all transactions involving digital Federal reserve notes*. The said notes shall be obligations of the United States and shall be considered legal tender and shall be receivable by all national and member banks and Federal reserve banks and for all taxes, customs, and other public dues. They shall be redeemed in lawful money on demand at the Treasury Department of the United States, in the city of Washington, District of Columbia, or at any Federal Reserve bank.” _7)






> As we saw, the Federal Reserve does not have the power to create Dollars directly. It seem like this power is now to be granted to them. Given that these new Reserve Notes are digital, this strangely merges two distinct forms of money as well.
> 
> Next, we saw that the distribution of Dollars was done through member banks. It isn’t clear if this remains the case. It clearly says that these digital Dollars can be issued “in addition” to the current Federal Reserve notes. There is nothing, at least not in this law, preventing the Federal Reserve from taking a more centralized and direct role in distributing the digital Dollar. Perhaps during the next “emergency.”
> 
> And finally, the Federal Reserve Board is to be authorized to create and distribute a “ledger-based” digital Dollar that could be used for everyday transactions. There are a few technologies one could imagine, but let us for now assume this will be a blockchain. Blockchains are great for recording transactions; it is what they do.
> 
> Perhaps that is why the Federal Reserve will be authorized to do so? However, it is a bit hard to imagine that such a centralized structure would not lead to monitoring of all transactions. And what about privacy? What about security?
> The Fed is currently not as powerful as it wants the market to believe; the Federal Reserve Act restricts a lot of its actions. This amendment, however, could drastically expand the powers of the FED, by allowing them to create and distribute a “digital USD” directly. It could change the entire structure of the financial system, with far reaching consequences.
> 
> And how are digital Federal Reserve Notes to be justified in terms of the origins and authority of the Federal Reserve? If the Digital Dollar is based on a blockchain, how can they also be based on reserves?
> 
> And what mechanism will determine how funds (and how much) are added to the economy? And where and how will they be distributed? Will this all be under the control of a board of seven unelected bureaucrats? And how will they control a distributed ledger of such magnitude?
> 
> This amendment has the potential to change the way the Federal Reserve operates. It is not law yet, and can still be changed. This deserves a wider discussion by economists and financial experts outside the crypto-space as well.



The US fed, unlike the RBA in OZ, and most of CB's in the rest of the Western World, is not a federal government  agency, but a private consortium of US commercial banks.
It would be foolish to believe that the US Fed  is anything but a tool to maximise and protect the wealth of the commercial banks of the US.
Mick


----------



## mullokintyre

I guess it really should surprise nobody, but it seems that the CCP have declared all virtual currency transactions to be illegal.
From  Zero Hedge


> China expanded its escalating crackdown on cryptocurrencies on Friday when its central bank declared that all activities related to digital coins are “illegal” and must be banned.
> 
> In a statement the People’s Bank of China said the latest notice was to further prevent the risks surrounding crypto trading and to maintain national security and social stability.
> 
> Curiously, the statement is dated September 15, but only hit the central bank's website at 5pm on Friday.
> 
> Incidentally, the news was already priced in once, with rumors of PBOC crackdown sending the price of bitcoin lower in mid-September when Bitcoin traded just below $50,000.
> 
> Naming bitcoin, ether and tether as examples, the central bank said cryptocurrencies are issued by nonmonetary authorities, use encryption technologies and exist in digital form and should not be circulated and used in the market as currencies. The PBOC specifically targeted overseas cryptocurrency exchanges declaring that it was illegal for them to provide online services to residents in China.



For some people,  the banning of cryptos by a country is meaningless as the cryptos are not controlled by any one country.
It paves the way for the PBOC  controlled Chinese sanctioned state Digital Currency as the only viable digital currency in China. 
And of course, if they then remove the Yuan from circulation, they have even more control over the Chinese people. 
On the other hand, it will make it difficult for China to have  its currency in a basket of currencies that they want to set yo to replace the USD as the worlds reserve currency.
Mick


----------



## Smurf1976

mullokintyre said:


> the CCP have declared all virtual currency transactions to be illegal.



So what now happens to cryptocurrencies already owned by Chinese citizens?

Do they have a viable option to sell that in exchange for Chinese or foreign fiat currency or some other asset or have they simply lost their money outright?


----------



## mullokintyre

Smurf1976 said:


> So what now happens to cryptocurrencies already owned by Chinese citizens?
> 
> Do they have a viable option to sell that in exchange for Chinese or foreign fiat currency or some other asset or have they simply lost their money outright?



Don't know.
If they keep their wallet on a hard drive say, then they can still keep the coins I presume, but  given that the CCP has made all crypto transactions illegal, I don't see how they can exchange them within Chinas jurisdiction.
The underground mining setups will struggle, as will anyone invested heavily in bitcoin within china if they cannot realise their investment.
be interesting to see what happens next.
Mick


----------



## againsthegrain

mullokintyre said:


> Don't know.
> If they keep their wallet on a hard drive say, then they can still keep the coins I presume, but  given that the CCP has made all crypto transactions illegal, I don't see how they can exchange them within Chinas jurisdiction.
> The underground mining setups will struggle, as will anyone invested heavily in bitcoin within china if they cannot realise their investment.
> be interesting to see what happens next.
> Mick




Probably have to sell it on a overseas exchange, through a relative or friend.  Then smuggle the currency back into china except everybody tries to smuggle currency out of china not back in.


----------



## moXJO

Are you 'hamster' good?

https://www.businessinsider.com/ham...her-doge-2021-9?amp&__twitter_impression=true


*A hamster named Mr. Goxx has been trading cryptocurrencies in a rigged box since June.*
*The hamster determines which crypto to buy or sell by running on a wheel and strolling through one of two tunnels.  *
*Since it started trading on June 12, Goxx's crypto portfolio returned 24% as of Friday.*
Here's the live feed:  
https://m.twitch.tv/mr_goxx


----------



## over9k

Interestingly, when you plot bitcoin on a log graph, it's right on long term trend


----------



## mullokintyre

According to one of the 18billion commentators on markets, Etherium is next crypto to go on a run.
FromKitco


> (Kitco News) - Ethereum is going to be the next cryptocurrency to explode to the upside, Frank Holmes, CEO, and CIO of U.S. Global Investors predicts. Ethereum, the second most-valuable cryptocurrency behind Bitcoin, is already up 830 percent for the past year.
> 
> Holmes, who is also the Executive Chairman of HIVE Blockchain, spoke to David Lin, Anchor for Kitco News. HIVE Blockchain is the first publicly traded crypto miner listed on the Toronto Venture Exchange.
> 
> Holmes compared the phenomena of when there is a run up on gold, and then silver follows -- to the same phenomena happening to Bitcoin and Ethereum. "When gold goes to a 50 day moving average, and it goes up 15-20 percent, silver all of a sudden surges 30 percent. Ethereum is to Bitcoin -- is like silver is to gold," he explained. "Bitcoin makes the big charge, then all of a sudden Ethereum explodes to the upside. That's the sweet spot for us."
> 
> "The biggest challenge we have mining for Ethereum is that so many young people have GPU chips for gaming, and they are all mining Ethereum so we get less coins. Our prices are up dramatically from a year ago, but the machines that used to produce 300 Ethereum a day when Ethereum was $300 -- are now producing 80 a day," Holmes emphasized. "Our net revenue or gross revenue is higher because all these gamers around the world are in crypto. Gaming as a whole is a $600 billion business."
> 
> Holmes said his biggest concern for Ethereum is that "we are going from proof of work, which is mining and validating the encryption, to proof of stake. But it hasn't happened -- every upgrade -- all it does is shrink the supply outside, but it doesn't stop the demand and people mining for it," he said. "It's actually much more decentralized around the world than Bitcoin miners are."
> 
> He explained why he is so bullish on Ethereum. "It is a smart contract -- Ethereum has many more uses than Bitcoin does, the same way silver does -- 20 percent of demand for silver is for solar energy. It has a green footprint, viruses can't live on silver, it has many medical uses, etc.," Holmes added. "The same thing with Ethereum, it is used for DeFi, for NFT'S. It's a much more important backbone for growth in blockchain."
> 
> But Holmes said Bitcoin has positive attributes too. "Bitcoin is a store of value. Its greatest asset is its ability to transfer immediately and cheaply versus traditional transfers of money like Western Union. So, remittance between developed nations and developing nations is a classic reason why Bitcoin is a superior way of moving money," he said.
> 
> Holmes encourages young and aggressive investors to own both Bitcoin and Ethereum. "Gold is a great trade for the conservative or older investor, but it has lagged the markets on a relative basis for the money printing. Gold should have a projectile potential for $3,000 an ounce in the short period," Holmes said.



Not sure if I would agree with the good Frank, but I am not a crypto expert.
Perhaps someone here who is closer to that Nirvana can do it for me.
Mick


----------



## moXJO

mullokintyre said:


> According to one of the 18billion commentators on markets, Etherium is next crypto to go on a run.
> FromKitco
> 
> Not sure if I would agree with the good Frank, but I am not a crypto expert.
> Perhaps someone here who is closer to that Nirvana can do it for me.
> Mick



I'm only interested in what's 10-10000 bagging. 

Etherium might double or something. I use it a bit but it sucks because of gas fees. Who wants $30-$5000 transaction fees every time they transact. It's been stupid for the last couple of months even using bridging tokens.
Eth 2 is supposed to remedy it. 

Better gains elsewhere but possible 2x-5x on eth if it fixes the current problems. Blockchain just sucks though from someone that uses it a lot.


----------



## over9k

Well my mine is now about 40% more profitable than it was ~3 weeks ago.


----------



## over9k

Cross-post: 

You hear about all this carryon reference whether crypto is the new gold (meaning inflation hedge), so here's a graph for you:


----------



## moXJO

Tether is looking really worrying. Looks worse than Evergrande.


----------



## qldfrog

moXJO said:


> Tether is looking really worrying. Looks worse than Evergrande.



Tether is grand scale scam..the more you learn the more puzzled you are at how the hell did they manage to keep that level of fraudulent activity so long and so far


----------



## e_abrams

I don't like the comparisons between Bitcoin and Gold. Both are very valuable, but I think they are too different to compare them.


----------



## over9k

e_abrams said:


> I don't like the comparisons between Bitcoin and Gold. Both are very valuable, but I think they are too different to compare them.



The narrative is that bitcoin is the new gold (meaning inflation hedge). I just showed the US10Y correlation. 

It's up to you as to whether you believe it to be the aforementioned inflation hedge, but the numbers sure show it to be.


----------



## mullokintyre

for those reluctant  or unable to buy one or more crypto currencies,  but would still like exposure to crypto, betashares is about to launch an Oz based crypto ETF.
For info see Beta Crypto ETF
Mick


----------



## mullokintyre

The beta shares crypto   ETF got off to a record start.
FromThe OZ


> The roaring success of BetaShares Crypto Innovators exchange traded fund has reinforced plans by the company to bring two new cryptocurrency funds to market.
> Investors ploughed almost $42.5m into the BetaShares Crypto exchange traded fund on its opening day of trade.
> 
> Almost $5.2m was traded in the first five minutes of trade when the fund debuted on the market at 11.01am on Thursday.
> The size of the market reception topped previous ASX records for first day trading value, which had previously been notched up at $8m in March this year.
> 
> Exchange traded funds are offered to investors as an opportunity to buy a basket of investments, spreading risk.
> 
> The crypto offering was marketed as opening the opportunity for investors to take a slice of the booming cryptocurrency market, which despite its risky nature saw investors pile in.
> 
> *READ MORE:*Aussie crypto fund Apollo Capital bets big on DeFi|CBA to offer crypto trading on its banking app
> BetaShares even acknowledges the “very high risk” of the sector, noting “crypto-assets are highly speculative in nature and companies with significant exposure to crypto-asset markets can be expected to have a very high level of return volatility”.
> 
> Underneath the fund lies investments in Silvergate Capital, which takes 12.3 per cent weight of assets, followed by Marathon Digital Holdings, Galaxy Digital Holdings, Coinbase Global, and others.
> 
> Shares in Silvergate Capital open the door to Silvergate Bank, which offers technology platforms to fintechs and digital currency companies.
> 
> Marathon Digital Holdings is the parent company of Uniloc which owns Bitcoins and Bitcoin mining operations.



Obviously the punters were keen to get on board.
Most likely we will see more ETF type crypto action for those who will not/cannot by the indidual crypto currencies.
Mick


----------



## basilio

moXJO said:


> Tether is looking really worrying. Looks worse than Evergrande.




This story suggests there is much to be concerned about with Tether.  If indeed this is the  company that stands behind the other crypto coinage  the Fat Lady may be warming up her vocal chords.

Hindenburg Research Announces $1,000,000 Bounty For Details On Tether’s Backing​
Published on October 19, 2021

NEW YORK, NY — Hindenburg Research, a forensic financial research firm, today announces it is launching the Hindenburg Tether Bounty Program (the “Program”) – a reward of up to $1,000,000 for information leading to previously undisclosed details about cryptocurrency “stablecoin” Tether’s backing.

*Tether is a key underpinning of the multi-trillion-dollar crypto market*. Yet despite its repeated claims of transparency, its disclosures around its holdings have been opaque. The company claims to hold a significant portion of its reserves in commercial paper yet has disclosed virtually nothing about its counterparties.

Hindenburg has doubts about the legitimacy of Tether’s backing due to the company’s sparse disclosures.

Tether has been referred to as a “stablecoin” in the crypto space due to the company’s historical claims that it was equivalent to $1 USD and was backed 1-to-1 by “traditional currency” reserves.

Since those claims that garnered it “stablecoin” status were made years ago, Tether subsequently revealed that its coin was backed only by a small percentage of traditional currency, and that much of its backing consists of holdings in commercial paper issued by unnamed counterparties.

Despite multiple regulatory sanctions over its alleged lack of truthful disclosure about its reserves, and despite Tether now having a $70 billion market cap, Tether still refuses to provide transparency to the public on its holdings.









						Hindenburg Research Announces $1,000,000 Bounty For Details On Tether’s Backing
					

NEW YORK, NY — Hindenburg Research, a forensic financial research firm, today announces it is launching the Hindenburg Tether Bounty Program (the “Program”) – a reward of up…




					hindenburgresearch.com
				












						What's the problem with Tether and why do people call it a scam? | finder.com.au
					

Are you a cryptocurrency owner? We need to talk about Tether.




					www.finder.com.au


----------



## mullokintyre

According to the WSJ via The Australian we might be about to get the real identity of the creator(s)  of the Bitcoin.


> A seemingly run-of-the-mill trial is playing out in Florida: The family of a deceased man is suing his former business partner over control of their partnership’s assets.
> In this case, the assets in question are a cache of about one million bitcoins, equivalent to around $US64bn ($87bn) today, belonging to bitcoin’s creator, the pseudonymous Satoshi Nakamoto. The family of the dead man says he and his business partner together were Nakamoto, and thus the family is entitled to half of the fortune.
> 
> Who Satoshi Nakamoto is has been one of the financial world’s enduring mysteries. Does the name refer to one person? Or several? And why has he or she or they not touched a penny of that fortune?
> 
> The answers to those questions are at the centre of the Florida dispute and of bitcoin itself. Bitcoin has become a trillion-dollar market, with tens of millions of investors. It has challenged governments trying to regulate it and has been endorsed by some. The technology behind it is seen by some as a way to rewire the global financial system. Yet, who created it and why has remained a mystery.
> 
> And that is all before you get to who controls one of the largest private fortunes in the world.
> 
> That is what a Florida jury will try to tackle. The family of David Kleiman is suing his former business partner, a 51-year-old Australian programmer living in London named Craig Wright. Mr Wright has been arguing since 2016 that he created bitcoin, a claim dismissed by most in the bitcoin community. Mr Kleiman’s family argues that the two worked on and mined bitcoin together, entitling Mr Kleiman’s family to half a million bitcoins.
> 
> “We believe the evidence will show there was a partnership to create and mine over one million bitcoin,” said Vel Freedman, a lawyer for the Kleiman family.
> 
> The plaintiffs plan to produce evidence showing that the two were involved in bitcoin since its inception and worked together.
> 
> “It is about two friends who had a partnership, and about how one of them tried to take everything for himself after the other died,” said Tibor Nagy, a lawyer who has been observing the trial.
> 
> The defence said it has evidence that will show Mr. Wright is the creator of bitcoin and never included Mr Kleiman. “We believe the court will find there’s nothing to indicate or record that they were in a partnership,” said Andrés Rivero, a lawyer for Mr Wright.
> 
> For bitcoiners, there is only one piece of evidence that could conclusively prove the identity of Satoshi Nakamoto: the private key that controls the account where Nakamoto stored the one million bitcoins. Anyone claiming to be Satoshi Nakamoto could show that he or she has them by moving even a fraction of a coin out of it.
> 
> Craig Wright has claimed he is Satoshi Nakamoto, inventor of virtual currency bitcoin. Picture: Kristina Uffe
> The mystery of Satoshi Nakamoto is one of the curiosities of bitcoin. On October 31, 2008, somebody using that name sent a nine-page paper to a group of cryptographers explaining a system of “electronic cash” that allowed people to exchange value without the need for a bank or other party. A few months later, the bitcoin network went live, and Nakamoto collected one million bitcoins in its first year.
> 
> It was earlier in 2008 that the family of Mr Kleiman claims his business partner Mr Wright asked for Mr Kleiman’s help in what would become that nine-page paper. They collaborated on the white paper and launched bitcoin together, the suit alleges.
> 
> Bitcoin combined encryption, cryptography, distributed computing and game theory. With bitcoin, two people, anywhere in the world with an internet connection, could transact without a middleman in minutes.
> 
> For every single one of the more than 650 million bitcoin transactions, all publicly visible on a ledger called the “blockchain,” there are two strings of numbers that control how the digital currency is moved: a public key and a private key. Anybody can send bitcoin to the public key, or the destination address, which is similar to a bank account. Only the person who controls the account will have the private key and essentially own the bitcoin.
> 
> In bitcoin’s early days, nobody cared much about Nakamoto’s identity. Bitcoin had no tangible value and only a small group of backers. Nakamoto was active in its development for about two years, writing on message boards and emailing with developers. In December 2010, Nakamoto, who was known to use two email addresses and have one registered website, stopped posting publicly; essentially, Nakamoto disappeared.
> 
> The universe of people with the technical knowledge to create bitcoin is limited. Most of the prominent names in cryptography have been tagged as Nakamoto. All have denied it, and no evidence has ever linked anyone conclusively to bitcoin’s creation
> A bitcoin mining facility in upstate New York is using electricity from a local hydro-electric plant powered by the Niagara River. The company is part of a group of miners attempting to make the industry more sustainable, both environmentally and financially. Illustration: Alex Kuzoian/WSJ
> 
> Meanwhile, in 2011, Mr Kleiman incorporated a company in Florida called W&K Info Defence Research. His family alleges that it was a partnership and that Mr. Wright later tried to claim outright ownership. The defence says there was in fact no partnership.
> 
> Mr. Kleiman died on April 26, 2013.
> 
> The next year, Newsweek reported that a man with the same last name as Satoshi – Dorian Nakamoto – was bitcoin’s creator. He denied the claim, and on a message board, a one-sentence post from an account known to have been used by the real Nakamoto agreed: “I am not Dorian Nakamoto.” If that was a genuine message from bitcoin’s creator, it is the last public correspondence from Nakamoto.
> 
> In May 2016, Mr Wright claimed that he was bitcoin’s founder. He met with several early bitcoin pioneers, gave exclusive interviews to three media outlets and filled a website with papers he had written about cryptography and bitcoin.
> 
> Three days later, facing withering criticism, he dropped the claim. He pulled everything off the website and replaced it with a four-paragraph apology.
> 
> “I broke,” he wrote. “I do not have the courage. I cannot.” He has since renewed his insistence that he created bitcoin.
> 
> Whether Mr Wright or Mr Kleiman possesses or possessed the knowledge to have created the cryptocurrency is contested.
> 
> Mr Wright “has been hacking, bamboozling and fooling people, playing the confidence game,” said Arthur van Pelt, a bitcoin investor who has emerged as one of Mr Wright’s most vocal critics.
> 
> “There is no genuine, independent, credible proof whatsoever.”
> 
> Mr Kleiman’s computing expertise was known to be extensive. It is possible that Mr Kleiman created bitcoin, Emin Gun Sirer, founder of Ava Labs, said, but there isn’t enough information to be sure. “It’s an open question,” he said.



Still not sure if it will really resolve anything, unless someone somewhere comes up with the private key for the orignal bitcoin mining wallet.
Mick


----------



## basilio

*How long would  you hold a  live grenade after the pin has been pulled ?*

I was doing some research on the question of how well backed Tether  is as a Stable Coin. And in fact if matters anyway.
A long read but perhaps a consideration for ASF punters playing at the CCC  (Crypto Currency Casinos.)

Untethered​It’s time to get very worried about Tether, the “stablecoin” at the center of the crypto economy.​
Many things that are terrible for you in high doses are pretty fun in low ones. For example, I enjoy some light gambling, or used to before the responsibilities of adulthood robbed me of the luxury. Two good things about gambling: It’s social—at least if you do it in person—and you can drink alcohol while doing it. Sometimes you win, sometimes you don’t, but you get time with fellow humans, an adrenaline rush, and a story to tell later. As long as you’re doing it with money you can afford to lose and you know the risks involved, it’s usually fine.

One place where it looks increasingly not fine is the cryptocurrency industry, which Securities and Exchange Commission Chairman Gary Gensler has compared to betting in unlicensed, unregistered casinos. “We’ve got a lot of casinos here in the Wild West,” Gensler said in a chat last month with the Washington Post. “And the poker chip is these stablecoins.” In this casino, the chips themselves might be just as risky as sitting down at the blackjack table.

*... The question of whether Tether is a fraud, then, matters less than the questions that animate so much crypto trading: Can I make money from it? Is the gamble worth it?

A prominent Tether critic who goes by the pseudonym Bitfinex’ed defined Tether’s profound risk by way of a vivid thought experiment. “I’m going to give you a grenade, and this grenade has a random timer,” he said. “It could be 30 seconds. It could be six months. I’m going to pull the pin. And for every 10 seconds you hold that grenade, I’m going to give you a thousand bucks in cash. How long are you going to hold the grenade for?”









						There’s a Potential Grenade at the Center of the Crypto Economy
					

The stablecoin Tether appears to be neither stable nor especially tethered.




					slate.com
				



*


----------



## mullokintyre

basilio said:


> *How long would  you hold a  live grenade after the pin has been pulled ?*
> 
> I was doing some research on the question of how well backed Tether  is as a Stable Coin. And in fact if matters anyway.
> A long read but perhaps a consideration for ASF punters playing at the CCC  (Crypto Currency Casinos.)
> 
> Untethered​It’s time to get very worried about Tether, the “stablecoin” at the center of the crypto economy.​
> Many things that are terrible for you in high doses are pretty fun in low ones. For example, I enjoy some light gambling, or used to before the responsibilities of adulthood robbed me of the luxury. Two good things about gambling: It’s social—at least if you do it in person—and you can drink alcohol while doing it. Sometimes you win, sometimes you don’t, but you get time with fellow humans, an adrenaline rush, and a story to tell later. As long as you’re doing it with money you can afford to lose and you know the risks involved, it’s usually fine.
> 
> One place where it looks increasingly not fine is the cryptocurrency industry, which Securities and Exchange Commission Chairman Gary Gensler has compared to betting in unlicensed, unregistered casinos. “We’ve got a lot of casinos here in the Wild West,” Gensler said in a chat last month with the Washington Post. “And the poker chip is these stablecoins.” In this casino, the chips themselves might be just as risky as sitting down at the blackjack table.
> 
> *... The question of whether Tether is a fraud, then, matters less than the questions that animate so much crypto trading: Can I make money from it? Is the gamble worth it?
> 
> A prominent Tether critic who goes by the pseudonym Bitfinex’ed defined Tether’s profound risk by way of a vivid thought experiment. “I’m going to give you a grenade, and this grenade has a random timer,” he said. “It could be 30 seconds. It could be six months. I’m going to pull the pin. And for every 10 seconds you hold that grenade, I’m going to give you a thousand bucks in cash. How long are you going to hold the grenade for?”
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> There’s a Potential Grenade at the Center of the Crypto Economy
> 
> 
> The stablecoin Tether appears to be neither stable nor especially tethered.
> 
> 
> 
> 
> slate.com
> 
> 
> 
> 
> *



All i can see coming from this is that Gensler  will be the mechanism whereby  the US Fed crushes the bitcoin industry, mainly because it cannot control it.
Best to outlaw it, but you need a scapegoat to get away with it.
Mick


----------



## basilio

mullokintyre said:


> All i can see coming from this is that Gensler  will be the mechanism whereby  the US Fed crushes the bitcoin industry, mainly because it cannot control it.
> Best to outlaw it, but you need a scapegoat to get away with it.
> Mick




Fair enough Mick.  Your money. Your choice.
Perhaps you should consider pushing all the chips into the pot and betting up big before the game is stopped. You could win big.
_____________________________________________________________________________

What struck me about the analysis was the comparison to unregulated gambling and Big Players vs Little Players.  I.E Who was going  to get screwed and who was going to do it. In my younger days I played poker in a couple of schools.   Initially I wasn't bad, generally held my own and came out  somewhat ahead. 

But as time wore on the weaker players dropped out as they consistently lost and their  bank balances faltered. As they left it became clear to me I was now in the bottom half of the school.  So regretfully I too didn't turn up. The writing was on the wall.


----------



## mullokintyre

basilio said:


> Fair enough Mick.  Your money. Your choice.
> Perhaps you should consider pushing all the chips into the pot and betting up big before the game is stopped. You could win big.
> _____________________________________________________________________________
> 
> What struck me about the analysis was the comparison to unregulated gambling and Big Players vs Little Players.  I.E Who was going  to get screwed and who was going to do it. In my younger days I played poker in a couple of schools.   Initially I wasn't bad, generally held my own and came out  somewhat ahead.
> 
> But as time wore on the weaker players dropped out as they consistently lost and their  bank balances faltered. As they left it became clear to me I was now in the bottom half of the school.  So regretfully I too didn't turn up. The writing was on the wall.



I have certain rules about investing/trading.
There are some things I won't invest in=;tobacco companies, gambling institutions, brothels come to mind.
I also have a rule about not investing because of FOMO.
And FOMO seems to be the driving force behind cryptos.
I don't trust the CB's not to get involved in regulating Crypto, or trying to regulate it I should say.
They will outlaw them, just as China did.
Then set up their own digital currency under their own rules.
Mick


----------



## basilio

mullokintyre said:


> I have certain rules about investing/trading.
> There are some things I won't invest in=;tobacco companies, gambling institutions, brothels come to mind.
> I also have a rule about not investing because of FOMO.
> And FOMO seems to be the driving force behind cryptos.
> I don't trust the CB's not to get involved in regulating Crypto, or trying to regulate it I should say.
> They will outlaw them, just as China did.
> Then set up their own digital currency under their own rules.
> Mick




I can agree with that perspective. My concern is that when the grenade goes up there will be a ton of collateral damage.

Earlier in this thread I raised my concern about the potential financial damage to the banking system if/when the balloon went up on Crypto. The thought was that Crypto wasn't a big enough bomb to seriously hurt our financial system.

A couple of years later I'm not so confident about that.


----------



## noirua

This comes from the UK's 'Which?' once known as the 'Which? Magazine'. Article should apply in a similar way in Australia if not the same in this article.  Surprising how some people are scammed? Though I've bought many legitimate shares that proved to be duds so probably the same applies to me.
https://conversation.which.co.uk/sc...1121&utm_content=Scam+alert+newsletter+141121


Nov 9, 2021
In this episode of #KeiserReport, Max and Stacy look at the economics of rug pulls and what that may look like on a global economy-wide scale. In the second half, Max chats to market analyst and Levy Institute researcher Marshall Auerback about inflation, shortages, and money printing.


----------



## basilio

Why it might not matter if Tether is a scam. (Until it is.)

Tether USDT is possibly a scam but it can remain valuable 

UPDATED ON November 6, 2021
PUBLISHED ON May 16, 2021
5 minute read
 


Written by Cem Dilmegani​Tether (USDT) is a stablecoin with a claimed value where 1 USDT equals 1 US dollar. Tether Limited, the centralized authority of USDT, has the ability to print tether and therefore is claiming to print something equivalent to US dollars. Tether is not a central bank, bank or regulated in any way by any country other than British Virgin Islands. It is not audited, has been fined by financial regulators for financial misconduct and revealed that its stablecoin is mostly not backed by the US dollar. Yet, tether still trades at about a dollar. Why?









						Tether USDT is possibly a scam but it can remain valuable
					






					research.aimultiple.com


----------



## Joules MM1

"mister takagi wont be joining us for the rest of his ....." Trader Hans




back testing vpoc









						TradingView Chart
					






					t.co


----------



## Joules MM1

Joules MM1 said:


> "mister takagi wont be joining us for the rest of his ....." Trader Hans
> back testing vpoc
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> TradingView Chart
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> t.co




deep deep test 53-50k vpocs (?)
staying on the sell, the original small channel just widened (2x)








						TradingView Chart
					






					www.tradingview.com
				




nakatomi part 2


----------



## grah33

mullokintyre said:


> I have certain rules about investing/trading.
> There are some things I won't invest in=;tobacco companies, gambling institutions, brothels come to mind.
> I also have a rule about not investing because of FOMO.
> And FOMO seems to be the driving force behind cryptos.
> I don't trust the CB's not to get involved in regulating Crypto, or trying to regulate it I should say.
> They will outlaw them, just as China did.
> Then set up their own digital currency under their own rules.
> Mick



they might also try to profit from them too


----------



## mullokintyre

grah33 said:


> they might also try to profit from them too



I presume that by "they" ou mean the central banks?
If so , would most certainly concur.
Mick


----------



## grah33

mullokintyre said:


> I presume that by "they" ou mean the central banks?
> If so , would most certainly concur.
> Mick



we just don't know.  they might be patiently buying them up.  the players, I mean


----------



## Joules MM1

channel running smoothly

every spike lift slowly sold into
no reason to BTC








						TradingView Chart
					






					www.tradingview.com


----------



## Joules MM1

Joules MM1 said:


> channel running smoothly
> 
> every spike lift slowly sold into
> no reason to BTC
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> TradingView Chart
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> www.tradingview.com




closed 
the swing lost its momentum, hit a ratio and rotated on a basic divergent, am waiting on a retest of the low for a long entry
the channel is still nice but all the other pre-requisites fell to bits


----------



## noirua

CEO Peter Wall and the Argo Team pay a visit to the Helios construction site in Dickens County, Texas.



CEO Peter Wall and members of the Argo Team learn about Dickens County, Texas, and have the opportunity to meet members of the community through the Community Event.



CEO Peter Wall and the Argo Team explore renewable power in West Texas at Argo's Helios facility in Dickens County, Texas.

Argo Blockchain - AIM: ARB  NASDAQ: ARBK


----------



## Telamelo




----------



## Telamelo

Flash Crash: Ethereum Price Manipulation? Watch This Key Level - Bitcoinsensus
					

Ethereum price just solved off massively. Is this a Flash Crash: Ethereum Price Manipulation? Watch This Key Level playing out




					www.bitcoinsensus.com


----------



## Joules MM1

shall check on this post (their posts) in 12 months



buythedip gangs are back out in force

am short (chart on the right)


----------



## peter2

So, when there's a bit of panic in the equity markets. Where does the money go? Not to BTC or ETH, yep good old fashioned gold.


----------



## over9k

peter2 said:


> So, when there's a bit of panic in the equity markets. Where does the money go? Not to BTC or ETH, yep good old fashioned gold.



Nah peter you're off the mark here.

Cryptocurrencies are correlated with inflation:





Lockdowns etc = economic armageddon = deflationary environment, hence bond yields dumping along with crypto.


Meanwhile:






As you can see, gold's been an absolutely nothing investment, not correlated to a damn thing. The only time you'll ever see gold run is when the USD takes a pounding like in the GFC, and even then, the USD was STILL the flight to safety vs other fiat currencies, gold was just even better.

The only time you'll ever make bank with gold is with a total anomaly. It's a nothing play.


Fact is the gold bugs nailed their supermodel in the GFC. They've just been deluding themselves into thinking there will be a round two ever since.


----------



## Telamelo

Crypto experts say is better than bitcoin
					

As popular as Bitcoin is, America’s biggest bank, JPMorgan, thinks Ethereum is a better bet.




					www.news.com.au


----------



## Telamelo

Ethereum ETH +4.59% this morning


----------



## Telamelo

> ETH/BTC massive symmetrical triangle in formation... if this plays out as expected, then super bullish altcoin cycle to follow!


----------



## Telamelo

ETH "cup & handle" looks amazing


----------



## Joules MM1

back on the sell as the channel was whipped out price came back inside, not allowing much for the as the leg that got us up here is
a very robust looking lift









						TradingView Chart
					






					www.tradingview.com
				




channel perspective:








						TradingView Chart
					






					www.tradingview.com


----------



## Telamelo

ETH breakout +7.60%


----------



## Telamelo

Bitcoin (BTC) Price Analysis – Gaining Bullish Momentum (01-Dec)
					

Bitcoin is looking bullish on several timeframes and is getting read for another rally. Read our price analysis for more:




					www.bitcoinsensus.com


----------



## Telamelo

"Sheldon the Sniper" gives his charting analysis/thoughts on Bitcoin & the major Altcoins


----------



## Telamelo




----------



## Telamelo




----------



## Telamelo

Big call suggesting *ETH* a chance to rocket to $40,000!  Well, hope he's right lol

US market's jumped strongly overnight +2% is great news for us crypto bulls as we should see plenty of green today


----------



## Telamelo




----------



## Telamelo

Michael provides great, simple charting analysis


----------



## Joules MM1

to quote trader George Carlin "we're gunna feggya now, Sheriff ....but, we're gunna feggya reeaaall sloowwwww"









						TradingView Chart
					






					www.tradingview.com
				




applied channel, watch that centreline


----------



## Joules MM1

is it a continuation pattern ? 
i. like. it. a. lot. am STO
https://www.tradingview.com/x/TQUDlro3/


----------



## Telamelo




----------



## Joe Blow

I have cleaned up this thread a little and moved a number of posts to other cryptocurrency threads. Keep this thread for cryptocurrency trading discussion please and use other threads for general cryptocurrency discussion or cryptocurrency scam discussion.


----------



## Joules MM1

Joules MM1 said:


> is it a continuation pattern ?
> i. like. it. a. lot. am STO
> https://www.tradingview.com/x/TQUDlro3/



nope,

btc:usd is super bullish again, had to reverse this, we got largest % into the 4th which is enough to satisfy for a resumption upside
we still need to exit the operating (blue) downchannel









						TradingView Chart
					






					www.tradingview.com
				




bigger picture, another let to go https://www.tradingview.com/x/YYqSBllO/

my 4k post, better not be a garbage result !!


----------



## Telamelo




----------



## Telamelo

Updated analysis of BTC, ETH & SOL


----------



## Joules MM1

> On-Chain College
> 
> @OnChainCollege
> 3h
> #Bitcoin
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> Exchange Netflow posted a massive number yesterday. Coins transferred to and from exchanges resulted in a net move of 23.2k coins moving OFF exchanges yesterday. This has only happened 3 other times in the last 2 years. Each time led to a price rally shortly after...


----------



## Joules MM1

Joules MM1 said:


> nope,
> 
> btc:usd is super bullish again, had to reverse this, we got largest % into the 4th which is enough to satisfy for a resumption upside
> we still need to exit the operating (blue) downchannel
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> TradingView Chart
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> www.tradingview.com
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> bigger picture, another let to go https://www.tradingview.com/x/YYqSBllO/
> 
> my 4k post, better not be a garbage result !!




lack of follow-thru, time building a base, huge outflows without price following thru (for every buyers account there's a sellers account*)
we have exited the operating blue channel (BTC:USD coinbase) 47000 get out level








						TradingView Chart
					






					www.tradingview.com
				




there's no clarity for vast majority,  the balance of "for every buyer there is a seller" because this often assumes each new sell is met by a new buy, which cannot be proven, however, we can give context to the idea that for every one seller there maybe multiple buyers and for every one buyer there maybe multiple sellers, buy/sell always in balance, one account can constitute the largest buyer from many small accounts, so yes, balance is that all sells are met be all buys, but that is not the balance we should lean on, otherwise why would retail cough up at the low when whales are feeding

so we have to ask the question, what is it that's stopping price following thru, where's the evidence, indicia crumbles, price construct says we should go further in one context and in another context says we have reached the reasonable length in a corrective direction we can now ask what is stalling price from continuation, in fact do we actually have a continuation signal, what exactly is the current context at several degrees of trend given that we cannot see who is most active, the lack of follow-thru suggests buyers are most active because sellers fail to dominate


----------



## Telamelo

Crypto price forecast prediction

https://www.cryptoground.com


----------



## Joules MM1

$xvg xvg:usd Verge
rotation off an ending diagonal, with truncation, with impulsive leg upwards








						TradingView Chart
					






					www.tradingview.com
				



bitfinex


----------



## noirua

Iran halts authorized crypto mining to save energy for winter
					

Iran previously put a temporary blanket ban on crypto mining amid historically peak periods for power demand in summer.   Continue...



					uk.advfn.com


----------



## Joules MM1

TradingView Chart
					






					www.tradingview.com
				




trade on
btc/usd


----------



## Joules MM1

the meme-fest hits a peak at major lows on socmed and todays no exception
https://www.tradingview.com/x/whCCKotH/

at all these blue-arrow moments anti cryp memes dominate in a big way


----------



## peter2

What, no Santa rally in cryptos. 

@Joules MM1 Thanks for all your posts in the gold and index threads. Love your commitment. See you in the new year.


----------



## noirua

JPMorgan: 2022 Could Be ‘Year of the Blockchain Bridge’ - Blockworks
					

Growth in crypto space could hinge on Ethereum’s upcoming upgrade, more regulatory clarity, JPMorgan analysts say




					blockworks.co


----------



## noirua

Blockworks are something new that I haven't quite yet got a handle on.  Many funds or companies are taking an interest in these setups that many appear to think is the big one for 2022. Those taking an interest are fairly small companies in the AU$ range from $20m to $80 million seeing these companies becoming major figures and perhaps looking for that 100 bagger amongst them.


----------



## noirua

As to the Bitcoin price, some see the floor at US$40,000 and maybe a bit lower but not that much.  The next target is around the US$70,000 to US$80,000 range.  Though there are less and less going for over US$100,000 and even Max Kaiser has gone quiet on prediction as the number one private investor in Bitcoin.


----------



## mullokintyre

never underestimate the ability of people to get around legislation and rules.
REven in China.
From  Todays Australian



> Bitcoin traders in China could be using the cryptocurrency to take some $US4.6bn ($6.41bn) out of the country in a circumvention of Beijing’s strict capital controls.
> A research paper published by academics in Australia and China estimates that at least $US1.5bn in bitcoin purchased in China has been cashed out overseas – including some $US2.8m through trading platforms in Australia.
> The vast majority of the money – from 2011 to 2017 – has been processed through bitcoin exchanges in the US, Finland and Luxembourg.
> Beijing’s capital restrictions cover amounts above $US50,000 a year, and are intended to control the value of the yuan.
> 
> The report says almost 8.78 million bitcoin were traded by Chinese nationals between September 2011 and February 2018.
> 
> The research was prepared by Maggie Hu, at the Chinese University of Hong Kong, Adrian Lee at Deakin University and Talis Putnins, of the University of Technology Sydney.
> 
> Of the outflows through overseas platforms, $US577m went through the US, $US321m came through those based in Finland, and $US179m was processed in Luxembourg.
> 
> “Over one-quarter of trading volume in Chinese bitcoin exchanges is estimated to be involved in circumventing China’s capital controls,” the researchers concluded in their paper.
> 
> “It is likely that capital flight contributes to the congestion on the blockchain that then results in higher fees for all users, not just those engaged in capital flight.”
> 
> Outside the US, the most popular bitcoin exchange with Chinese traders – Bitstamp – was located in Luxembourg, while another favourite – LocalBitcoins – was in Finland.
> 
> Late last year Professor Putnins briefed the Australian Securities & Investments Commission on groups within Australia that pump up the prices of cryptocurrencies and shares.
> 
> Professor Putnins had highlighted to ASIC pump and dump schemes involving 23 million participants using social media or encrypted messaging platforms such as Telegram.
> Economics in Riga, concluded the schemes created “extreme price distortions of 65 per cent on average, abnormal trading volumes in the millions of dollars, and large wealth transfers between participants”.
> 
> “These manipulation schemes are likely to persist as long as regulators and exchanges turn a blind eye,” their paper said.
> 
> Mr Putnins’ latest research, published in December 2021, finds Chinese traders are willing to incur a loss on trade “in order to take their domestic assets offshore in a way that is more difficult for authorities to trace”.
> 
> “Consistent with investors’ motive of seeking a safe haven for their domestic assets in China, we find that the intensity of capital flight out of China via bitcoin is greater when Chinese economic policy uncertainty becomes higher,” the paper notes.



The report is using fairly old data, only goes up to 2017, and given the speed at which things change, one has to wonder how relevant the research might be.
Especially when you consider the last section of the report


> China restricted financial institutions from engaging in any crypto transactions in May last year, before banning mining in June, and finally outlawing cryptocurrencies in September.




Mick


----------



## noirua

Glen Goodman - Bitcoin Dip Buyers Will Become Exhausted
11 January 2022
Https://www.voxmarkets.co.uk/articles/glen-goodman-bitcoin-dip-buyers-will-become-exhausted-9853d49​


----------



## noirua

Bitcoin exchange outflows see biggest daily spike since September 2021
					

Data suggests that almost 30,000 BTC left exchanges on Tuesday as Bitcoin buying appetite returns.




					cointelegraph.com


----------



## basilio

Another challenge to Bitcoin.  Kosovo has pulled the plug on miners producing bitcoins. Essentially they can't afford to subsidise the huge power bills.

The story highlights just how energy intensive  bitcoin mining is and the impact this has on national/international economies. 
_
The latest calculation from Cambridge University’s bitcoin electricity consumption index suggests that global bitcoin mining consumes 125.96 terawatt hours a year of electricity, putting its consumption above Norway (122.2 TWh), Argentina (121 TWh), the Netherlands (108.8 TWh) and the United Arab Emirates (113.20 TWh).

Meanwhile, Kosovans spent the final days of 2021 in darkness as domestic and international factors combined to cause energy shortages and rolling blackouts across the country. At the peak of the recent crisis, an unforeseen shutdown at one of its two ageing power plants left Kosovo importing about 40% of its energy on international markets – where prices have soared – and the government was forced to provide an emergency subsidy to help meet the costs.









						Panic as Kosovo pulls the plug on its energy-guzzling bitcoin miners
					

Speculators rush to sell off their kit as Balkan state announces a crypto clampdown to ease electricity crisis




					www.theguardian.com
				



_


----------



## noirua




----------



## frugal.rock

FWIW, I've just slapped $1000 spread equally into TRON, SOLANA & OMG. ($333 each)
Not saying a bottom is in at all or their "good" crypto's to hold, however sentiment seems to be coming back, for now.
A sea of green is now being seen across most of the higher market cappers.
TRON and Solana have been staked at 5.8 & 6.5% PA respectively, return paid daily in base crypto.


----------



## Garpal Gumnut

frugal.rock said:


> FWIW, I've just slapped $1000 spread equally into TRON, SOLANA & OMG. ($333 each)
> Not saying a bottom is in at all or their "good" crypto's to hold, however sentiment seems to be coming back, for now.
> A sea of green is now being seen across most of the higher market cappers.
> TRON and Solana have been staked at 5.8 & 6.5% PA respectively, return paid daily in base crypto.



Can you explain how TRON, Solana and OMG differ from BTC, apart from price. 

gg


----------



## Sean K

frugal.rock said:


> FWIW, I've just slapped $1000 spread equally into TRON, SOLANA & OMG. ($333 each)
> Not saying a bottom is in at all or their "good" crypto's to hold, however sentiment seems to be coming back, for now.
> A sea of green is now being seen across most of the higher market cappers.
> TRON and Solana have been staked at 5.8 & 6.5% PA respectively, return paid daily in base crypto.




Are you at Crown, Mr Rock?


----------



## frugal.rock

Garpal Gumnut said:


> Can you explain how TRON, Solana and OMG differ from BTC, apart from price.
> 
> gg



Not really Mr Gumnut, apart from they are lower market caps than BTC and I'm under the illusion they run harder, in both directions. 

BTC and ETH appear to be the "moons" that control the tides that generally sink or swim the whole flotilla though.

Tron and Solana can be "staked", I'm not sure that BTC can be.

The similarities are that I consider all crypto intrinsically worthless.

BTC and some others can be used to purchase tangible goods, not even sure my choices can do that, however I can swap them into BTC at the press of a button, if so desired.


----------



## Garpal Gumnut

frugal.rock said:


> Not really Mr Gumnut, apart from they are lower market caps than BTC and I'm under the illusion they run harder, in both directions.
> 
> BTC and ETH appear to be the "moons" that control the tides that generally sink or swim the whole flotilla though.
> 
> Tron and Solana can be "staked", I'm not sure that BTC can be.
> 
> The similarities are that I consider all crypto intrinsically worthless.
> 
> BTC and some others can be used to purchase tangible goods, not even sure my choices can do that, however I can swap them into BTC at the press of a button, if so desired.



Can you explain "staked".

gg


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## frugal.rock

Sean K said:


> Are you at Crown, Mr Rock?



Haha, no. 
Crypto is a gamble though, thus the small change into it.


----------



## frugal.rock

Garpal Gumnut said:


> Can you explain "staked".
> 
> gg



A timber length with a pointed end rammed into Drac's heart😅

I'll let these guys explain it...?









						What is staking?
					

Staking is a way of earning rewards for holding certain cryptocurrencies.




					www.coinbase.com


----------



## Garpal Gumnut

frugal.rock said:


> A timber length with a pointed end rammed into Drac's heart😅
> 
> I'll let these guys explain it...?
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> What is staking?
> 
> 
> Staking is a way of earning rewards for holding certain cryptocurrencies.
> 
> 
> 
> 
> www.coinbase.com



Thanks rock. 

I must admit, were I to buy crypto, ETH would be my choice. 

It ticks all the boxes for me including "staking" ability.

gg


----------



## frugal.rock

Garpal Gumnut said:


> Thanks rock.
> 
> I must admit, were I to buy crypto, ETH would be my choice.
> 
> It ticks all the boxes for me including "staking" ability.
> 
> gg



A bunch of other crypto's operate on the ETH protocol also.
It seemingly was also FlippeFloppeFlys choice as seen in @ducati916 posts. 
I believe FFF added every month, regardless of price on a long term basis.
I'll take the added risk my choices provide.


----------



## basilio

If we thought the stockmarket was looking propy how does Crypto look at the moment ? 

$1.9 trillion wiped off the market as cryptocurrency prices go into free fall​Cryptocurrency has shed half its value since its November highs and there are fears it hasn’t even hit bottom yet.


Alex Turner-Cohen

@AlexTurnerCohen

3 min read
January 24, 2022 - 9:24AM



You're watching​Why is cryptocurrency so volatile?


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Bitcoin's wild price moves stem from its design — and you'll need strong nerves to trade it.

More from world markets


Brutal ASX selloff rolls into new week​


World’s richest men lose billions​


Brutal prediction as bitcoin plummets again​Bitcoin has had a horror few days, with the blockchain’s price sliding by 20 per cent in the past week.

The coin’s current 24-hour low was a staggering US$34,784 (A$48,300), representing a decline of 50 per cent since its November all-time high of US$69,000 (A$96,000).

In all, the cryptocurrency market has lost US$1.4 trillion (A$1.9t) in just two months since its $3 trillion combined market cap last November,
On Monday morning Bitcoin had dropped a tiny bit more, down by 0.1 per cent, now sitting on US$35,239.47.

In fact, Bitcoin’s year to date returns are minus 24 per cent — meaning if you invested at the beginning of the year, you’ve already lost a quarter of your cash.
Other top-ranked cryptocurrency are also feeling the sting, with the second most valuable coin, Ethereum, down by 27 per cent compared to last week.

At time of writing, the ETH blockchain was trading at US$2,413 (A$3300), an almost 30 per cent drop since the start of the new year.
Cardano and Solana and have also fallen drastically over the past seven days, plummeting by 23 per cent and 34 per cent respectively.
BNB Binance is down by 26.5 per cent, Ripple XRP plunged by 22 per cent and hypecoin Doge is suffering a 21 per cent loss in a week.
And experts say it’s going to get worse.


Bitcoin’s price over the last week. Picture: CoinMarketCap
Head of research at Melbourne-based market analyser Pepperstone, Chris Weston, told The Australian that nobody was piling in to buy crypto because it doesn’t seem like easy gains are on the horizon.
“It’s just going down and down, and you’ve got to ask yourself, why would you buy now?” he said.
“You don’t buy when it’s going down; you wait for the price to stabilise.”

The finance pro said that he expected the coin to dip below $US30,000 (A$41,000) before it lost its downward momentum.
He wasn’t the only one to think so









						$1.9 trillion wiped in crypto free fall
					

Bitcoin has had a horror few days, with the blockchain’s price sliding by 20 per cent in the past week.




					www.news.com.au


----------



## Tyre Kicker

I’m not into crypto at all but if ever I was to throw my own at it, I’d want it to fall a lot further than it has so far.


----------



## over9k

@Joe Blow can we just have one dedicated bitcoin and/or crypto thread? I've posted in both


----------



## Joe Blow

over9k said:


> @Joe Blow can we just have one dedicated bitcoin and/or crypto thread? I've posted in both




This one seems to be the main cryptocurrency trading thread. The other one is a more general Bitcoin price discussion and analysis thread (i.e. you don't need to be trading it to comment on it). The both seem to be different threads with different purposes.


----------



## Garpal Gumnut

over9k said:


> @Joe Blow can we just have one dedicated bitcoin and/or crypto thread? I've posted in both



Sorry I posted this on the other thread. Probably should be here.

BTC has shown some resilience over the last 24 hours but is now showing a descending R angle triangle with the red volumes on the downside.







gg


----------



## over9k

Some context: 




Read the graph carefully


----------



## Ann

Thanks for the direction Joe.

I am schooling my son on charting using the BIT/USD. He is familiar with the use of bitcoin, so transactions of crypto are commonplace for him. I suggested he dump his profoundly underperforming Vanguard holdings and have a fiddle with crypto as a trade.
Charts are charts, patterns are patterns, it is all the same. I have no interest in crypto, I have enough to go on with, in the stockmarket.

I emailed him four charts for BTC/USD today and thought I would share them here as well. It was the five-minute chart, the 1-hour chart the weekly chart and the monthly chart. I suggested he have a look at the daily chart himself and find the levels of major drops/rises and assess where there may be support/resistance levels.


----------



## noirua




----------



## over9k

So is crypto back on the menu yet? Can we all start hoping our respective asses are going to start healing?


----------



## frugal.rock

Having a punt on AXS Axie Infinity
63% staking rate.

As for the menu ...


----------



## Ann

Another chart I have drawn for my son. I am now looking at Volume spikes as a potential for trading by drawing a horizontal line from the EOD spike day and using it as a support/resistance line. I have no idea yet if they will be of any trading value but time will tell.


----------



## mullokintyre

I am not sure how many people on ASF have been following the protest movement in Canada, but one  of the many startling actions that have evolved since Trudeau declared his state of Emergency has been the demand that financial institutions freeze the funds of  people the Government name. This includes the wallets that contain crypto currency.


> Deputy PM Chrystia Freeland: "The names of both individuals and entities as well as crypto wallets have been shared by the RCMP with financial institutions and accounts have been frozen and more accounts will be frozen."




So, how do you stop the ba$tard$ just confiscating your digital currency.
Canada, the new  Autocracy.
Mick


----------



## Cam019

Ignore the funnymentals and talking heads. Follow price.

BTC/USD looking awesome here in my opinion. We finally have a structural shift to the upside - a reason to look at going long! My area of interest for longs would be the grey box. Keep an eye out! Don't fall for all the nonsense about crypto being more risky than any other asset class. More volatile - yes. But, volatility is not risk. If you buy anything at the wrong point - you're due for a bad time. Crypto's are just another tradable financial instrument.

Keep your risk low and have at it, if you so choose.


----------



## Garpal Gumnut

@Cam019 

Could you post some volume or momentum indicators with your BTC chart or is that all a big secret.

gg


----------



## Cam019

No secrets here. I don't use any 'indicators'. This is how my charts look all the time. Nothing is hidden.

What more do you want to know GG?


----------



## Garpal Gumnut

Cam019 said:


> No secrets here. I don't use any 'indicators'. This is how my charts look all the time. Nothing is hidden.
> 
> What more do you want to know GG?



I prefer to know on a chart whether 40 or 400,000 bitcoin were sold down or bought up on any ole trading day.

I suppose I am old fashioned.

Do you have a chart with volume on it. It makes it more meaningful. 

Just asking for a friend. 

gg


----------



## Cam019

Garpal Gumnut said:


> Do you have a chart with volume on it. It makes it more meaningful.



I don't - but I'm sure TradingView does.

A thing of beauty.


----------



## Cam019

Updated BTCUSD chart. Price now back in the most recently created demand zone.


----------



## Cam019

Cam019 said:


> Updated BTCUSD chart. Price now back in the most recently created demand zone.




*BTC/USD*

This chart is a thing of beauty.

Daily demand zones have held beautifully.

Watching for the upside liquidity runs to destroy all the short sellers who think this chart is going to zero.

There will be carnage.


----------



## Tyre Kicker

Cam019 said:


> Ignore the funnymentals and talking heads. Follow price.
> 
> BTC/USD looking awesome here in my opinion. We finally have a structural shift to the upside - a reason to look at going long! My area of interest for longs would be the grey box. Keep an eye out! Don't fall for all the nonsense about crypto being more risky than any other asset class. More volatile - yes. But, volatility is not risk. If you buy anything at the wrong point - you're due for a bad time. Crypto's are just another tradable financial instrument.
> 
> Keep your risk low and have at it, if you so choose.





Here’s a post for the ages.

This defines why so many lose money on nonsensical fads and why guys like Buffet and Munger are legends.


----------



## Garpal Gumnut

Tyre Kicker said:


> Here’s a post for the ages.
> 
> This defines why so many lose money on nonsensical fads and why guys like Buffet and Munger are legends.



I'd be interested to know what @Cam019 feels about BTC atm., as I have, like him, felt bullish about stocks and then when the stock falls have eventually had to bail. 

I'm interested in his trading psychology and thinking. 

I do also note that BTC charts posted never show volume, so one never knows whether the change is due to 50 or 5000 BTC being traded, and do BTC traders have access to real yime volume when trading.

gg


----------



## ducati916

Garpal Gumnut said:


> I'd be interested to know what @Cam019 feels about BTC atm., as I have, like him, felt bullish about stocks and then when the stock falls have eventually had to bail.
> 
> I'm interested in his trading psychology and thinking.
> 
> I do also note that BTC charts posted never show volume, so one never knows whether the change is due to 50 or 5000 BTC being traded, and do BTC traders have access to real yime volume when trading.
> 
> gg







jog on
duc


----------



## Tyre Kicker

I respect your thinking gg but I have little to no inclination investing in BTC.

We’ve all had losers but how so many have been sucked into the myriad of crypto astounds me.

However, it does show the power of the current information tech and social media use that the punishing push for all things crypto at a time of nearly free money has had on people who bought the hype ( and I assume most had NFI what they were buying) thinking they were going to buy houses and set themselves up for life in their early to mid 20s.

What’s the age old saying… if it sounds too good to be true…


----------



## over9k

It's just technical traders/maths heads thinking they know better than everyone else and getting burned. Maths and technicals can't predict black swans like the terra luna collapse. 

There was a quant firm that actually went bust AFTER the pandemic lows. They are what they are.


----------



## Telamelo




----------



## Skate

Tyre Kicker said:


> We’ve all had losers but *how so many have been sucked into the myriad of crypto astounds me.*




*What astounds me is this "how do you price nothing?"*
The valuation of crypto is an illusion built on the enthusiasm of traders. If you are well informed & know the risk, trade it by all means. I believe those trading cryptocurrencies have freedom from effort, which is certainly appealing for many. Other forms of trading require skill & effort for better than average returns. Crypto is basically like stock in an empty company that doesn't do anything except promote the sale of its own stock. I'm just saying some traders have a clear concept of the differences between trading & speculation. Knowing the market price & underlying value places you in a position to be profitable.

Skate.


----------



## Austwide

I also view crypto like a do nothing company with no hope ever of a dividend, to me making it worthless.

But, it seems large drug cartels and scammers etc need and use crypto to hide their money trails.

I think this caused a lot of demand for the crypto and then the rapid rise drew in the flying to the moon investors.

I don't know if the cartels store their money in crypto, but I hope so.


----------



## Belli

Garpal Gumnut said:


> I do also note that BTC charts posted never show volume, so one never knows whether the change is due to 50 or 5000 BTC being traded, and do BTC traders have access to real yime volume when trading.




Don't know if this is of any assistance to you gg.









						Live stock, index, futures, Forex and Bitcoin charts on TradingView
					

Interactive financial charts for analysis and generating trading ideas on TradingView!




					www.tradingview.com
				




PC: I know zilch about crypto.  The link was sent to me with one of these  whatever they are called


----------



## frugal.rock

"Bitcoin slides below $20,000 to lowest level in 18 months"









						Bitcoin slides below $20,000 to lowest level in 18 months By Reuters
					

Bitcoin slides below $20,000 to lowest level in 18 months




					au.investing.com
				




How are you @over9k travelling in the mining of said beasts?
Does the switchable nature of being able to change which crypto is mined, help at all?
Do you still accept cash for mining or have you reverted to accepting crypto and doing the long  hold thing?
Is ROI still around 12 months from a start up?
Are energy prices biting or did you lock in solar or fixed supply contract's?
Lastly, how is mining equipment availability currently?
Thanks in advance. 👍


----------



## over9k

frugal.rock said:


> "Bitcoin slides below $20,000 to lowest level in 18 months"
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> Bitcoin slides below $20,000 to lowest level in 18 months By Reuters
> 
> 
> Bitcoin slides below $20,000 to lowest level in 18 months
> 
> 
> 
> 
> au.investing.com
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> *How are you @over9k travelling in the mining of said beasts?*
> Does the switchable nature of being able to change which crypto is mined, help at all?
> Do you still accept cash for mining or have you reverted to accepting crypto and doing the long  hold thing?
> Is ROI still around 12 months from a start up?
> Are energy prices biting or did you lock in solar or fixed supply contract's?
> Lastly, how is mining equipment availability currently?
> Thanks in advance. 👍



Switched 'em off. If the power costs  to mine the coins is more than they're worth then it's cheaper to buy (and then trade) them with cash. These guys out there mining whilst unprofitable on the idea that the coins will go back up are, well, indicative of just how stupid so many crypto bro's are because it's the wrong way to go about it even if the coins DO go back up.

Current ROI would obviously depend on your power costs but even if your power costs were 0 you're still looking at a ~2 year breakeven point. Don't get me wrong, 50% return is nothing to sneeze at but A: that's at current prices (and I don't think we've seen a bottom yet) and B: there ain't any free electricity out there.

I have a big solar array and it still doesn't make sense to mine 24/7 even with a ton of solar. The only even remotely sensible way to do it now is to run the machines on a timer sync'd with your solar panels to only run them when they can be powered by solar. Outside of those hours, your costs are actually higher than your revenue.

That then obviously extends the time until breakeven out even further so realistically, unless you have some other way of improving your power efficiency down to almost nothing (bigger solar arrays that charge a battery during the day that you can run of a night or something) mining is a complete fool's errand at this point.

But even doing that, you then have to add the costs of the panels, batteries etc etc to the mining rigs themselves and pool it all together to calculate your rate of return and once you do ALL that your numbers start to look very very different. Then we have to factor in depreciation of the gear just to really rub salt into the wound. Factoring in depreciation, much of this stuff (depending on what you own obviously) has been losing money since april.

And that's at _current_ prices.

So yeah, realistically speaking, the only thing that will save miners now is some kind of price increase. If that doesn't happen, we're going to see a slow melt of miners just one by one admitting defeat and selling their gear off.

The only faint glimmer of hope is seasonality - crypto, like energy demand, fluctuates with the seasons, and midyear/northern hemisphere summer is usually when it dips. Whether this is simply because everyone are out actually doing stuff and not stuck indoors trying to find something to do/think about (like trade crypto) I don't know, but it is what it is.

So yeah, if we don't see a late year/winter rebound this year, crypto's pretty much done for IMHO.


----------



## Sharkman

you can't mine BTC directly, it's dominated by huge warehouses full of ASICs these days. you can however sell your processing power on a hashpower marketplace that pays out in BTC, which is what i'm doing at the moment. i could mine eth, flux, ergo etc. directly, but i don't want any of that stuff right now, just want to accumulate BTC in times like these, so the hashpower marketplace seems to make the most sense.

i built myself a PC with an RTX 3080 a couple months ago, not specifically for mining. but i figured since i have the hardware anyway, i might as well use it to start a slow trickle of BTC dripping into my wallet whenever i'm not using it for other stuff, just in case crypto takes off again in a few years. i have no idea whether it will soar again or die out completely, but can't hurt to get a small amount of exposure in case it does shoot up dramatically again at some point, as it's done in the past.

IMHO at this point GPU mining is totally not worth it if you're regularly exchanging the coins for fiat to pay your expenses and/or building a new rig specifically to mine crypto and nothing else. under current conditions a single RTX 3080 essentially "mines" ~40 USD worth of BTC, costing ~40 SGD in electricity every month. it was much more viable a few months ago when an RTX 3080 was capable of generating ~200 USD worth of BTC every month, but those days are gone now.

but if you already own the hardware and intend to hodl the mined coins and gamble (yes i do view it as a straight up gamble) on future price appreciation, then any margin above zero is potentially still viable. if nothing else, you can use your PC as a heater during winter. it also avoids having to go thru an exchange, a potential point of failure in times like these. i mean i still go thru the hashpower marketplace, which is also a potential point of failure, but those who are pool mining can have the coins go straight into self-custody.

i'm mostly doing it for the learning experience and glacial acquisition of a small stack of coins, in case crypto takes off again and GPU mining becomes more viable. i don't need to sell the coins to pay my expenses, and i don't need to worry about ROI, as i primarily built this PC for doing other things, the fact that it can mine while i'm sleeping or otherwise not using it is just a side benefit.


----------



## over9k

But if your power costs to mine it are higher than the coin is worth then you're better off just buying it with cash - spend $1 to buy a coin in cash vs $1.01 in electricity to mine it... doesn't make sense.


----------



## over9k

Skate said:


> *What astounds me is this "how do you price nothing?"*
> The valuation of crypto is an illusion built on the enthusiasm of traders. If you are well informed & know the risk, trade it by all means. I believe those trading cryptocurrencies have freedom from effort, which is certainly appealing for many. Other forms of trading require skill & effort for better than average returns. Crypto is basically like stock in an empty company that doesn't do anything except promote the sale of its own stock. I'm just saying some traders have a clear concept of the differences between trading & speculation. Knowing the market price & underlying value places you in a position to be profitable.
> 
> Skate.



Or to put this in layman's terms, it's purely narrative (confidence) driven. Hence why that terra luna run and then collapse has wrecked the whole "sector" because crypto depends on confidence and the ability of a hedge fund to collapse a currency is a hell of a blow to confidence. 

So yeah, if there is going to be a recovery, it's going to be a very very long and slow one now. This kind of blow to confidence does not simply get reversed overnight.


----------



## over9k

Musing: 

Energy has dropped precipitously in the last 10ish days. I wonder how much of this has been due to mining rigs being turned off after crypto dropped in the same way and is therefore a huge amount of electricity demand dropping literally instantly. It currently just looks like coincidence but it may not be.


----------



## Sharkman

over9k said:


> But if your power costs to mine it are higher than the coin is worth then you're better off just buying it with cash - spend $1 to buy a coin in cash vs $1.01 in electricity to mine it... doesn't make sense.




at the moment it's still profitable for me (though only barely) - it basically boils down to swapping 40 SGD (=~29 USD) of electricity for 40 USD of BTC per month at current levels (realistically probably something like 30 and 30 since i don't mine 24 hours a day). i'm not including the cost of the hardware itself since i built it for doing other things. obviously with only a single RTX 3080 the numbers are tiny, so it's more about knowledge acquisition than BTC acquisition at this point, in case it becomes viable again in a few years, as i only just got into mining a couple months ago.

if i stopped doing it then due to lack of involvement i'd probably end up stopping reading/watching what more experienced miners have to say and learning how they go about doing the math, how they select components and build rigs etc. (i do consider myself proficient at building _regular_ PCs, but an out and out mining rig is not quite the same thing), leaving me unprepared to scale up if/when there is some inkling of a recovery. and if it ends up dying out, no biggie, it'll have cost me a dollar a day in electricity, i won't even notice.


----------



## Trader X

Sharkman said:


> if i stopped doing it then due to lack of involvement i'd probably end up stopping reading/watching what more experienced miners have to say and learning how they go about doing the math, how they select components and build rigs etc.



Found an interesting article that discusses BTC mining economics.  The modelling used includes cost, network and ASIC assumptions with the final calculation showing one Bitcoin mined with one ASIC miner costs roughly $32,000 over the course of five years.  $0.05kwh for electricity would be a challenge for most.  With Bitcoin currently trading at $18,400 as of this moment, imagine the cost and scale required for a mining operation to just break even.

_"The model, then, looks like this:

Hashes required to mine one Bitcoin:

= Network hash rate * Seconds per day / Bitcoin mined per day (including fee)

= 175 EH/s * 86,400 seconds / 918 BTC = ~16,471 EH / BTC

Time taken for an ASIC miner to mine one Bitcoin:

= ~16,471 EH * 10^6 / (100 TH/s * 60 seconds * 60 minutes * 24 hours * 365 days) = ~5.22 years

Capital expenses (Capex):_

_Bitcoin mined per ASIC lifetime = 2.5 years / ~5.22 years = ~0.48 BTC_
_Effective price per Bitcoin = Price of ASIC miner / Bitcoins mined in its lifetime_
_= $10,858 / ~0.48 BTC = ~$22,684

Operational expenses (Opex):_

_Electricity cost per Bitcoin = Time required to mine one Bitcoin * Energy consumption * Cost = ~5.22 years * 365 days * 24 hours * 3,400 * $0.05 / 1,000 = ~$7,778_
_Cooling and other overheads per Bitcoin = 20% of electricity cost = ~$1,556_
_Total cost of production per Bitcoin: = Capex + electricity + other Opex per Bitcoin

= ~$22,684 + ~$7,778 + ~$1,556

= ~$32,018

*Note:* Totals have been rounded. Figures are approximate.

Thus, in our hypothetical operation, we produced one Bitcoin with one ASIC miner at a cost of roughly $32,000 over the course of five years."_


----------



## waterbottle

GPU prices are supposedly down, which may be an indication of the state of the mining market?


----------



## Sharkman

Trader X said:


> Found an interesting article that discusses BTC mining economics.  The modelling used includes cost, network and ASIC assumptions with the final calculation showing one Bitcoin mined with one ASIC miner costs roughly $32,000 over the course of five years.  $0.05kwh for electricity would be a challenge for most.  With Bitcoin currently trading at $18,400 as of this moment, imagine the cost and scale required for a mining operation to just break even.
> 
> _"The model, then, looks like this:
> 
> Hashes required to mine one Bitcoin:
> 
> = Network hash rate * Seconds per day / Bitcoin mined per day (including fee)
> 
> = 175 EH/s * 86,400 seconds / 918 BTC = ~16,471 EH / BTC
> 
> Time taken for an ASIC miner to mine one Bitcoin:
> 
> = ~16,471 EH * 10^6 / (100 TH/s * 60 seconds * 60 minutes * 24 hours * 365 days) = ~5.22 years
> 
> Capital expenses (Capex):_
> 
> _Bitcoin mined per ASIC lifetime = 2.5 years / ~5.22 years = ~0.48 BTC_
> _Effective price per Bitcoin = Price of ASIC miner / Bitcoins mined in its lifetime_
> _= $10,858 / ~0.48 BTC = ~$22,684
> 
> Operational expenses (Opex):_
> 
> _Electricity cost per Bitcoin = Time required to mine one Bitcoin * Energy consumption * Cost = ~5.22 years * 365 days * 24 hours * 3,400 * $0.05 / 1,000 = ~$7,778_
> _Cooling and other overheads per Bitcoin = 20% of electricity cost = ~$1,556_
> _Total cost of production per Bitcoin: = Capex + electricity + other Opex per Bitcoin
> 
> = ~$22,684 + ~$7,778 + ~$1,556
> 
> = ~$32,018
> 
> *Note:* Totals have been rounded. Figures are approximate.
> 
> Thus, in our hypothetical operation, we produced one Bitcoin with one ASIC miner at a cost of roughly $32,000 over the course of five years."_




just out of curiosity (and also for the mental practice i guess, since i'm fairly new to the mining scene) i did some rough sums for selling hashpower in exchange for BTC as a comparison.

the going rate for hashpower on average over the past month is ~0.75 BTC/TH/day (ethash), so to generate 1 BTC in a day requires ~1.33 TH.

now a single RTX 3080 is rather inefficient for mining purposes so take a rack of 6x RTX 3060 Ti, which i've heard is one of the more efficient mining setups.

such a rack generates about 360 MH and each one sucks down about 120W, add another 100W for overheads (mobo, CPU, fans etc.) and * 1.2 (lost in the AC -> DC conversion) so call it around 1 KW.

a new 3060 Ti is ~500 USD these days, if it's a dedicated mining rig then you're probably using the cheapest mobo, CPU, storage etc. you can find (you do want a good PSU though), so call it ~3500 USD for the whole rig (again i've only ever built regular PCs myself, not dedicated mining rigs, so i could be out here).

that rack will take 1.33 TH/360 MH =~3700 days to generate 1 BTC, but a GPU isn't going to last 10 years. i've seen experienced miners do their calcs based on a 4 year lifespan and assume they can sell it used for ~100 USD afterwards. if you assume the other components are totally worthless after 4 years (which shouldn't be the case, mining doesn't really need latest gen mobo/CPU/storage and those generally last quite a while) that's 6 * (500 - 100) + 500 = 2900 USD to generate ~0.4 BTC over 4 years.

365 * 4 * 24 = ~35000 KWh of electricity, at the same 0.05c/KWh used in the article, that's 1750 USD in power costs, 4650 USD total to generate 0.4 BTC over 4 years, or 11,625 USD to generate 1.

of course there are a lot of unknowns and moving variables here, eth mining going away at some point would be the big one. but who's to say another coin won't rise up and take its place. if you're selling hashpower the buyers will figure out which coins are the most profitable, direct the hashpower there, and the going BTC rate for purchasing hashpower should reflect that more or less.

could be some inaccuracies in the above though. still fairly new to this stuff.


----------



## Sharkman

Sharkman said:


> now a single RTX 3080 is rather inefficient for mining purposes so take a rack of 6x RTX 3060 Ti, which i've heard is one of the more efficient mining setups.




actually the difference isn't quite as pronounced as i first thought. my single RTX 3080 pulls about 300W (from the wall, measured using a wattmeter) for ~100 MH. i do have a highly efficient platinum plus PSU though, when building PCs for personal use/enjoyment i always chuck in top quality components. so that 6x 3060 Ti rack might be pulling somewhat less power than i factored in above, especially if whoever built the rig used a good quality PSU (which should last way longer than a GPU). not sure, never built such a rig myself.


----------



## Garpal Gumnut

Belli said:


> Don't know if this is of any assistance to you gg.
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> Live stock, index, futures, Forex and Bitcoin charts on TradingView
> 
> 
> Interactive financial charts for analysis and generating trading ideas on TradingView!
> 
> 
> 
> 
> www.tradingview.com
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> PC: I know zilch about crypto.  The link was sent to me with one of these  whatever they are called



Thanks @Belli . I follow BTC and ETH using KItco as well which gives volume. ( I'm not a Crypto "investor")

However many members advocating buying Da Toolips post charts with no volume, was my point. 

gg


----------



## Sharkman

waterbottle said:


> GPU prices are supposedly down, which may be an indication of the state of the mining market?




they are definitely down, but mining profitability wouldn't be the only factor, a lot of people are now holding out for next gen chips (RTX 4000 and RX 7000 series) which are due to release sometime in the next few months, dampening demand for current gen chips. there's no telling whether they'll actually be available (let alone available at MSRP) when they release though.


----------



## Captain_Chaza

Garpal Gumnut said:


> Thanks @Belli . I follow BTC and ETH using KItco as well which gives volume. ( I'm not a Crypto "investor")
> 
> However many members advocating buying Da Toolips post charts with no volume, was my point.
> 
> gg



I only check  the VOLUME/ MARKET DEPTH at the point of ORDERING to make sure I can get my fill
No point in watching the Volume for any other reason IMHO 
 The funny thing is 
*"There is always plenty of Volume at the Tops"*


----------



## over9k

Sharkman said:


> actually the difference isn't quite as pronounced as i first thought. my single RTX 3080 pulls about 300W (from the wall, measured using a wattmeter) for ~100 MH. i do have a highly efficient platinum plus PSU though, when building PCs for personal use/enjoyment i always chuck in top quality components. so that 6x 3060 Ti rack might be pulling somewhat less power than i factored in above, especially if whoever built the rig used a good quality PSU (which should last way longer than a GPU). not sure, never built such a rig myself.



3060ti's are about 500mh/joule, 3080's are about 400mh/joule. The most efficient gpu's for mining are 5700xt's with team redminer's R mode which get about 600mh/joule. 

Prices have cratered so much that 5700xt's in R mode are about the only actually profitable gpu's left.


----------



## basilio

A historical perspective on the unregulated speculation with Cryptp currency.

We have been down this path before.
The Crypto Crash: all Ponzi schemes topple eventually ​Robert Reich



We’re back to the wild west finances of the 1920s as the crypto industry pours huge money into political campaigns


Messengers on Wall Street, New York in October 1929 Photograph: New York Daily News Archive/NY Daily News/Getty Images
Sun 19 Jun 2022 07.25 BSTLast modified on Sun 19 Jun 2022 07.26 BST

One week ago, as cryptocurrency prices plummeted, Celsius Network – an experimental cryptocurrency bank with more than one million customers that has emerged as a leader in the murky world of decentralized finance, or DeFi – announced it was freezing withdrawals “due to extreme market conditions.”

Earlier this past week, Bitcoin dropped 15 percent over 24 hours to its lowest value since December 2020. Last month, TerraUSD, a stablecoin – a system that was supposed to perform a lot like a conventional bank account but was backed only by a cryptocurrency called Luna – collapsed, losing 97 percent of its value in just 24 hours, apparently destroying some investors’ life savings.

Eighty-nine years ago, Franklin D Roosevelt signed into law the Banking Act of 1933 – also known as the Glass-Steagall Act. It separated commercial banking from investment banking – Main Street from Wall Street – to protect people who entrusted their savings to commercial banks from having their money gambled away.

Glass-Steagall’s larger purpose was to put an end to the giant Ponzi scheme that had overtaken the American economy in the 1920s and led to the Great Crash of 1929.

Americans had been getting rich by speculating on shares of stock and various sorts of exotica (roughly analogous to crypto). These risky assets’ values rose solely because a growing number of investors put money into them.
But at some point, Ponzi schemes topple of their own weight. When the toppling occurred in 1929, it plunged the nation and the world into a Great Depression. The Glass-Steagall Act was a means of restoring stability.

But by the 1980s, America forgot the financial trauma of 1929. As the stock market soared, speculators noticed they could make lots more money if they could gamble with other people’s money – as speculators did in the 1920s. They pushed Congress to deregulate Wall Street, arguing that the United States financial sector would otherwise lose its competitive standing relative to other financial centers around the world.









						The Crypto Crash: all Ponzi schemes topple eventually | Robert Reich
					

We’re back to the wild west finances of the 1920s as the crypto industry pours huge money into political campaigns




					www.theguardian.com


----------



## Telamelo

I've dabbled in crypto but struggle to understand it - the concept & use of blockchain though I think/feel is here to stay as is being implemented by our banks & many organisations (including the ASX).


----------



## Sharkman

over9k said:


> 3060ti's are about 500mh/joule, 3080's are about 400mh/joule. The most efficient gpu's for mining are 5700xt's with team redminer's R mode which get about 600mh/joule.
> 
> Prices have cratered so much that 5700xt's in R mode are about the only actually profitable gpu's left.




i think you mean KH/joule, but yeah that's the general order of efficiency that i've heard about. the 3080 can be pushed a bit higher than 400 though, maybe 430-450 (mine usually sits in the 430s once the screen goes to sleep as i have my primary display plugged into it, so i think i got a bit unlucky in the silicon lottery, some people have claimed to hit 460), overclock memory/underclock core/power limit 225-230W or so.

don't have firsthand experience with 3060 Tis, but from what i've read they typically get 60 MH and gulp down 120W, so 500 KH/joule sounds about right.

not sure about the longer term viability of 5700 XTs (then again even mining as a whole may not be viable in the long term either), they are super efficient at ethash but that's going away at some point and they don't seem to perform all that great at other algorithms.


----------



## over9k

Yeah I was just talking at current eth mining. 

I have every 3000 series gpu as well as 5700xt, 6700xt, 6800.


----------



## over9k

For those who trade this stuff in/out though, eth is 14% off the lows just on the day today. There's a lot of volatility to run.


----------



## over9k

I'm not the first person to post this but there's been some pretty sweet tendies to be had for those who've had the stones to run the technicals with crypto, in this case it looks like a nice little channel has formed:




It's also more than 20% off the bottom if you were brave/lucky enough to buy there too.


----------



## over9k

Now 30% off the lows: 




With technicals now suggesting that this is about the point to sell, that's a pretty sweet 30% in three days if you had the stones to put an order in around the 900 mark.


----------



## qldfrog

Austwide said:


> I also view crypto like a do nothing company with no hope ever of a dividend, to me making it worthless.
> 
> But, it seems large drug cartels and scammers etc need and use crypto to hide their money trails.
> 
> I think this caused a lot of demand for the crypto and then the rapid rise drew in the flying to the moon investors.
> 
> I don't know if the cartels store their money in crypto, but I hope so.



They store it in USD and on the NYSE....


----------



## gartley

So is this the end of the bear market???  Don't bloody know.......
But what I do know is that we have had 5 waves down complete with this last leg down and what is a high probability at the very least is a counter trend rally back up to the previous wave 4 of one less degree at 30K which at these prices is not bad!


----------



## Telamelo




----------



## Trader X

Telamelo said:


>




Capitulation will come when the likes of Mike Saylor and other maximalists are forced to sell, that means a buy price under $3000.  Only then can anyone use the word "cheap" in a historical sense when referring to Bitcoins price.  Most of the whales will have exited long before the price craters to that level.


----------



## Gojames567

The several investment scams going around are very disturbing and require serious attention. The police already have a lot on their plate which is why private firms on telegram *************** are collecting complaints from victims and using their latest technology and professional experts to track down these lost investments and the majority of losses are being recuperated.


----------



## basilio

Gojames567 said:


> The several investment scams going around are very disturbing and require serious attention. The police already have a lot on their plate which is why private firms on telegram *************** are collecting complaints from victims and using their latest technology and professional experts to track down these lost investments and the majority of losses are being recuperated.



Is this for real ? I'd like to believe that "the majority of losses are being recuperated" but frankly I'd be very cautious without strong outside proof.

For those who aren't aware there is a dangerous and very effective secondary scam process where scammers follow up on people who have lost money promising to help them out.  Has happened. Not good.


----------



## basilio

To date the Crypto currency market has seen a $2 trillion drop in value and a number of catastrophic collapses. As suggested above by Gojames the market has responded via numerous offers to help people recover their losses.

How effective are these companies ?  Is their any independent evidence of their value ? Be interested to hear any experiences people have had.


----------



## Sharkman

over9k said:


> Yeah I was just talking at current eth mining.
> 
> I have every 3000 series gpu as well as 5700xt, 6700xt, 6800.




you firing up your rigs again, or is profitability still too low?

for some reason i don't quite see yet, the hashpower market shot up on thurs evening and has stayed there for the last couple of days. the going rate for ethash hovered around 0.7 BTC/TH/day for most of june, but since thurs it's been consistently up around 0.85-0.90. not sure about pool mining (guessing you mine on a pool?) but i'd imagine that would've seen similar moves.


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## over9k

Sharkman said:


> you firing up your rigs again, or is profitability still too low?
> 
> for some reason i don't quite see yet, the hashpower market shot up on thurs evening and has stayed there for the last couple of days. the going rate for ethash hovered around 0.7 BTC/TH/day for most of june, but since thurs it's been consistently up around 0.85-0.90. not sure about pool mining (guessing you mine on a pool?) but i'd imagine that would've seen similar moves.



I'm keeping the indoor ones as they're free heating during the winter but all the rest are off.


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## Sharkman

over9k said:


> I'm keeping the indoor ones as they're free heating during the winter but all the rest are off.




out of curiosity have you looked into the viability of renting out GPU power for AI learning instead?

came across this idea yesterday while idly googling around, a single RTX 3090 seems to pay around $0.30 (USD) an hour for this, which is way more than a 3090 would get from mining eth at this point, even after the difficulty bomb delay which appears to have bumped up eth mining profits by about 20-25% (at least in the short term).

downsides are that it's not constant, you have to list your rig and wait for someone to pick up the contract. and you have to keep it running until the job is finished, can't start and stop it whenever you want, like you can with mining. which shouldn't be an issue for dedicated mining rigs, but probably prevents me from pursuing this at the moment, as sometimes i want to use my PC for other stuff.

still, could be a potential alternative for putting spare GPUs to work in the meantime whilst waiting for the crypto market to recover (if it ever does).


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## mullokintyre

Sharkman said:


> out of curiosity have you looked into the viability of renting out GPU power for AI learning instead?
> 
> came across this idea yesterday while idly googling around, a single RTX 3090 seems to pay around $0.30 (USD) an hour for this, which is way more than a 3090 would get from mining eth at this point, even after the difficulty bomb delay which appears to have bumped up eth mining profits by about 20-25% (at least in the short term).
> 
> downsides are that it's not constant, you have to list your rig and wait for someone to pick up the contract. and you have to keep it running until the job is finished, can't start and stop it whenever you want, like you can with mining. which shouldn't be an issue for dedicated mining rigs, but probably prevents me from pursuing this at the moment, as sometimes i want to use my PC for other stuff.
> 
> still, could be a potential alternative for putting spare GPUs to work in the meantime whilst waiting for the crypto market to recover (if it ever does).



There is of course a far more worthy and altruistic use for othewise dormant CPU’s.
Shared community computing by the likes of BOINC and SETI have been around for years . These orgs offer the computing power of hundreds of thousand small computers to numerous not for profit  agencies working on math, health, AI, climate projects, genetic research, drug research and so forth. I have had BOINC running on my systems since 2002, clocking up about 8miilion hours of cumputing work units.
A user can partipate in one or all projects by selectiion, and determine what percentage of  hardware can be used by the projects in total.
mick


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## over9k




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## over9k

Breakout!


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## noirua

What are crypto pump-and-dump groups? Are they legal?
					

Self-organized groups of people who promote unknown coins on the Discord server or Telegram are called crypto pump-and-dump groups.




					cointelegraph.com


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## mullokintyre

noirua said:


> What are crypto pump-and-dump groups? Are they legal?
> 
> 
> Self-organized groups of people who promote unknown coins on the Discord server or Telegram are called crypto pump-and-dump groups.
> 
> 
> 
> 
> cointelegraph.com



Of course they are legal.
They are called central banks.
Mick


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## noirua

It does seem as if Bitcoin must fall towards $10,000 just to find a very solid base where the number of bulls then outnumber the now circling bears.​https://uk.advfn.com/p.php?pid=staticchart&s=COIN^BTCUSD&p=0&t=16 - live chart​


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## noirua

October 2021 - 2021 - 
	

	







						Michael Burry of ‘The Big Short’ asked about shorting crypto days before bitcoin hit $60,000
					

"The Big Short" investor Michael Burry inquired about ways to bet against bitcoin just before the world's largest cryptocurrency hit a six-month high.




					www.cnbc.com


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