# OSH - Oil Search



## RichKid (8 June 2006)

An EW chart of OSH. The extended nature of wave 3 suggests this may be the end of wave 5 (many EW people say that wave 5's are short affairs in such situations) that we've seen recently at the all time high, the falling volume in the past few weeks and previous high volume selling during wave 4 makes me favour that view. However, currently shown is a more bullish view- the lack of high volume sellers this month is what has me in two minds. 

Thanks again to Wavepicker for hammering home the fact that a contracting triangle precedes the last move in a sequence. I hope my chart does EW theory some justice, still learning. Used volume again too Nick, really helps to clarify things, assuming I've read it correctly!


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## Sean K (8 June 2006)

RC, If you've read it right, where to from here?


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## Sean K (8 June 2006)

Sorry RK.


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## moXJO (16 August 2006)

*OSH*

Anyone know why OSH has dropped so much today.I heard about the trouble in PNG prio to today.Has something else happened?


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## Sean K (16 August 2006)

AGL have said it's going to cost heaps more to build the pipeline and want to rejig the project structure somehow. 

The market is likely to overshoot the sell off and it could be an opportunity to buy IMO.


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## Sean K (16 August 2006)

Hit bottom at $3.16 and bounced a little. Perhaps the bargains were had....


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## toc_bat (16 August 2006)

Hi kennas,

Havent AGL said that they are shelving the pipeline project for the moment? 

Well, anyway, that is what i managed to get out of the latest announcement. I could have misinterpreted the corporate jargon, though .....

bye


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## rederob (16 August 2006)

kennas said:
			
		

> The market is likely to overshoot the sell off and it could be an opportunity to buy IMO.



Got 3k @ $3.27 coz work kept me away from the 'puter.
All it means is that the extra construction cost will be added to the delivered price of gas after the event.
With dwindling world energy supplies it's hard to conceive the pipeline not going ahead at some time in the future.


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## Sean K (16 August 2006)

OSH management will be very quick to come out with a supportive statement I reckon. They have a very good history of communicating well with the market. Hopefully, it's a positive spin, but realistic too....

OSH really is relying on this to go through, although Yemen exploration is promising. This really is the company maker.

1107  [Dow Jones] STOCK CALL: Oil Search (OSH.AU) off 12.6% to A$3.24 amid serious doubts PNG-Australia Gas project will eventuate. Follows comments from pipeline  partner AGL (AGL.AU) about cost blowouts, investment plans. Citigroup keeps sell on AGL following unsurprising FY result, suggests investors switch to Origin (ORG.AU) as "PNG pipeline takes a dive". GSJBW says if PNG-Australia doesn't happen, OSH has less attractive options such as Hides liquid stripping. ORG up 4.9% A$7.44. (IGP)


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## niknah (16 August 2006)

Not enough buyers for the gas right now.

http://www.asx.com.au/asx/statistics/showAnnouncementPDF.do?idsID=00637639 

He concludes at the end...

"However, we’re of the firm belief that Australia is the natural economic
destination for PNG gas and we have no reason to believe our PNG gas interests won’t eventually bear fruit."

Is this stock still good to hold long term?


Here're some better news...

http://www.smh.com.au/news/business/png-chiefs-reassure-oil-search-investors/2006/08/13/1155407670452.html
http://www.smh.com.au/news/money/hot-stock--oil-search/2006/08/07/1154802816796.html


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## Sean K (16 August 2006)

I'm holding for the minute. I want to see OSH's response.


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## Mumbank (16 August 2006)

I've been wanting to stock up on these for a while so this is the perfect opportunity.  By the time I mucked around a bit, sold some non performers and got organised they were back at $3.38.  Still a great buy and hold IMO.
Now lots of buyers jumping in to grab decent sized parcels


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## Sean K (16 August 2006)

Still holding. Missed the cheap stock unfortunately.

MELBOURNE (Dow Jones)--Papua New Guinea-based Oil Search Ltd. (OSH.AU) Wednesday said it's looking at options for its US$2.5 billion plan to pipe gas to Australia from Papua New Guinea after the Australian Gas Light Co. (AGL.AU) said it was scaling back work on the project, due to a lack of customers and rising costs.   Oil Search said it believes that the PNG Project remains an economically attractive project, and looks forward to "early resolution of the issues raised by AGL." 
It said talks have been held with AGL and its joint venture partner Malaysia's Petronas Gas Bhd. (6033.KU) regarding the various solutions to long-term ownership and "a number of potentially attractive solutions are being matured." 
"The release by AGL is clearly an attempt to bring key decisions on project participation and ownership to a rapid outcome," Oil Search said in a statement.
"The project has made progress on moving indicative gas sales agreements with all its customers over the past six months," it added. 
Oil Search said the key to the project was the confirmation of final customer loads, especially at the Moomba gas hub. 
Oil Search has held talks with Australian oil and gas company Santos Ltd. (STO.AU) over its possible involvement. Santos's re-entry into the project, which it quit 2003, will let the partners expand capacity and gain access to the Moomba hub which supplies the main cities along Australia's eastern and southern seaboard.


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## rederob (16 August 2006)

Guys
The investing rule for a commodity oriented equity is to value it on what it "owns in the ground".
After that work out how much to get it out of the ground and sold.
Clearly the selling price then dictates what it's going to be worth.
With oil and gas there is little chance of prices in the longer term falling back.
Which means that the longer it stays in the ground the more valuable it will be.
While some may have looked at a delay to the PNG as a minus, I was overjoyed.  Keep the project on ice for a few more years and see where prices are then.
Frankly, I think all the project partners are keen to get the gas to market and AGL is just trying to get one of the "ownership" aspects relating to Australian delivery hubs "locked down".
What more can I say - "buy the dips"!


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## TjamesX (16 August 2006)

IMO too early to catch this knife....

OSH statement that the project could still go ahead seems a bit desperate. AGL was a major party that has now exited. Project will be delayed significantly - I would wait until this is made official by OSH

TJ


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## Sean K (16 August 2006)

Fat Profits have just bought out a mid week alert and said 'hold'. 

Their opinion anyway.


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## rederob (16 August 2006)

TjamesX said:
			
		

> IMO too early to catch this knife....
> 
> OSH statement that the project could still go ahead seems a bit desperate. AGL was a major party that has now exited. Project will be delayed significantly - I would wait until this is made official by OSH
> 
> TJ



A falling knife?
Really?
The stock is presently running at a PE of 14, and had over US$500m in cash and no debt at end June.
This implies there was/is no significant premium built into the share price due to the PNG project.
Moreover, the average price of oil since 1 July is US$10 greater than the annual average price in the year ending 30 June.  Thus, we can reasonably assume that if oil stays near at or above present values, OSH will deliver a profit around 15% higher in 2007.


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## TjamesX (16 August 2006)

rederob said:
			
		

> A falling knife?
> Really?
> The stock is presently running at a PE of 14, and had over US$500m in cash and no debt at end June.
> This implies there was/is no significant premium built into the share price due to the PNG project.
> Moreover, the average price of oil since 1 July is US$10 greater than the annual average price in the year ending 30 June.  Thus, we can reasonably assume that if oil stays near at or above present values, OSH will deliver a profit around 15% higher in 2007.




I think the project was valued at around 80-100c per share by the brokers. The problem I think is the market perception. If PNG gets delayed significantly then OSH may have to reasses the asset and decide what is the best means of development (LNG etc) but most options will take many many years - so there won't be cashflow for a long time for the gas. The market has already wiped most of the PNG project value.... so from a value perpective it may be fair. But I think there could be more downside if it does become clear that the project could be put on hold.

IMO not a sell for a current holder, but for a prospective holder I think there will be opportunity to asses when OSH strategy becomes more clear. In the short term the market will be completely focused on the PNG project

TJ


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## michael_selway (16 August 2006)

rederob said:
			
		

> A falling knife?
> Really?
> The stock is presently running at a PE of 14, and had over US$500m in cash and no debt at end June.
> This implies there was/is no significant premium built into the share price due to the PNG project.
> Moreover, the average price of oil since 1 July is US$10 greater than the annual average price in the year ending 30 June.  Thus, we can reasonably assume that if oil stays near at or above present values, OSH will deliver a profit around 15% higher in 2007.




See the 15% 2007 is already factored in, have to look at 2008 and 2009, will oil prices fall? can they increase production? etc etc

Earnings and Dividends Forecast (cents per share) 
2005 2006 2007 2008 
EPS 24.3 27.9 28.3 21.5 
DPS 9.5 7.9 7.6 8.7 

So Foward Terminal of 10 is about $2.20, as a current valuation

thx

MS


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## rederob (16 August 2006)

MS
Using "forecasts" is a bit silly if they are not on the money.
They are just comsec forecasts and I think my record against theirs is close to 100%.
Comsec has stuffed up commodity forecasts for the last 3 years, bigtime.
If they get it right next year it will be because they made a mistake in their actual forecast!
When oil is above $80/barrel later this year, what will the pundits be saying then about oil companies?
I can only say, and keep saying, if you are light on oil, get crude.


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## scsl (16 August 2006)

utter carelessness led to me forgetting about stops on my long OSH CFDs!!   

the shock of seeing the "-10.75" in the % column was nothing compared to finding out that the positions were still open


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## toc_bat (17 August 2006)

Hi All

Why are there 6 trades showing at around 7.05am for OSH this morning? Who is allowed to trade outside of market hours?

bye

j


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## Sean K (17 August 2006)

Looks like this might have been a buying op.

0953  [Dow Jones] STOCK CALL: GSJBW says PNG Gas project is likely to proceed "albeit at a lower confidence level." Broker is advising AGL (AGL.AU) in merger with Alinta (ALN.AU). Says PNG project contributes about 50-70 cents to AGL valuation. Oil Search (OSH.AU) dived yesterday as AGL warned about its commitment to PNG pipeline that will deliver gas to Australian customers. (IGP)


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## scsl (19 August 2006)

i just read an article that states Macquarie Research as having a $4.95 target price. it's quite to comprehend this but then again, it's just a price target... just think it'd be interesting for those who follow OSH.

http://www.egoli.com.au/egoli/egoliWarrantsPage.asp?PageID={DF3B939C-96E2-4220-B2F0-837B87B07A1B}


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## mime (30 August 2006)

I noticed OSH has a PE of 5 or so. Doesn't anyone else think that's very low?


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## Sean K (30 August 2006)

yeah, 5.4 in the Fin this am. Surely errors.........


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## dubiousinfo (30 August 2006)

The half yearly report shows earnings for the 6 Months of US33.2c/Shr equivalent to AUS43.6c/Shr.
Current SP of $3.32 gives a PE of 3.8 for the 6 months.

However, US22.9c was attributable to abnormal items, namely the sale of asssets to AGL.

The actual profit for the 6 months from ongoing operations was US10.3c. If profit for the second half is similar to the first half, but excluding the abnormal items, this will give them first half 33.2 + second half 10.3 = US43.5c/Shr, equivalent to AUS57.2c/Shr & a PE of 5.8.

Excluding abnormal items entirely, profit for the year from ongoing operations  would theoretically be 10.3+10.3=US20.6/Shr, equivalent to AUS27.1c/Shr & a PE of 12.2

Hope this makes sense.


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## michael_selway (30 August 2006)

dubiousinfo said:
			
		

> The half yearly report shows earnings for the 6 Months of US33.2c/Shr equivalent to AUS43.6c/Shr.
> Current SP of $3.32 gives a PE of 3.8 for the 6 months.
> 
> However, US22.9c was attributable to abnormal items, namely the sale of asssets to AGL.
> ...




I see it as Foward Terminal PE of 10

Earnings and Dividends Forecast (cents per share) 
2005 2006 2007 2008 
EPS 24.3 28.9 28.3 21.5 
DPS 9.5 9.6 8.1 9.1 

So its worth $2.20 atm

thx

ms


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## dubiousinfo (31 August 2006)

michael_selway said:
			
		

> I see it as Foward Terminal PE of 10
> 
> Earnings and Dividends Forecast (cents per share)
> 2005 2006 2007 2008
> ...





The earnings forecast of 28.9c for 2006 would appear to be incorrect. OSH has just reported a profit for the 6 months to 30 June 2006 of US33.2c/Shr equivalent to AUS43.6c/Shr.

The only way they will report EPS of 28.9c for the full year is if they make a loss of 14.7c for the 2nd half year to Dec 2006, which I cant see happening.


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## Sean K (20 September 2006)

Well, $2.20 looks on the cards atm.   

I'm long term oil, so holding. 

Anyone else been spooked the past month?

Glad I only a few K in this atm....


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## Freeballinginawetsuit (20 September 2006)

kennas said:
			
		

> Well, $2.20 looks on the cards atm.
> 
> I'm long term oil, so holding.
> 
> ...





Not exactly spooked, seriously burnt on BPT & ROC, was looking at OSH also.
I bought into BPT at the POR of 1.56 and had them to run and certain of it. The correction came and I got stopped on both, (5%) and lost 3k on each.

Still not sure when to re-enter these two, especially like BPT but it hasn't rebounded for over a week. Not to sure if their is still a bit more downside in the oilers at the moment, before an educated entry can be picked.


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## nioka (20 September 2006)

kennas said:
			
		

> Well, $2.20 looks on the cards atm.
> 
> I'm long term oil, so holding.
> 
> ...



Hope you are right. Sold at $2.20 more than a year ago and have been waiting to buy back cheaper ever since. Is the gas pipeline a dream?


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## Sean K (20 September 2006)

nioka said:
			
		

> Hope you are right. Sold at $2.20 more than a year ago and have been waiting to buy back cheaper ever since. Is the gas pipeline a dream?




Once Santos pull their finger out and put some cash on the table, it should boost OSH considerably. I don't think it's a dream.


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## scsl (20 September 2006)

kennas, are you doing anything to hedge your long position? ...seeing as you're estimating that OSH could head towards $2.20, would something like going short CFDs be useful?


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## niknah (21 September 2006)

We'll know soon if the pipeline is dead, fingers crossed...

http://www.news.com.au/couriermail/story/0,23739,20441040-3122,00.html

But they have alot of cash and I'm sure they'll do something else with it.


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## Sean K (21 September 2006)

scsl said:
			
		

> kennas, are you doing anything to hedge your long position? ...seeing as you're estimating that OSH could head towards $2.20, would something like going short CFDs be useful?




scsl, Could be an option but I'm just going to hold. I haven't enough conviction in the short term direction of oil. I'm long term bullish, so best I just hold.


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## Sean K (22 September 2006)

Hopefully with POI and this news, OSH can start making a comeback.

From 'The Age' this am:

A new, shorter design is being considered for the proposed Papua New Guinea-Australia natural gas pipeline that could keep the project alive, Paul Botten, managing director of Oil Search Ltd has said.

"I am actually reasonably optimistic in this as a way forward," Botten told reporters on the sidelines of Merrill Lynch's Australian investment conference in New York.

The new pipeline plan emerged after a week of discussions with several potential partners, Botten said. It trims about 400 kilometres from a previous design.

The new line would bring the Papua New Guinea gas produced by Oil Search to Moomba, a distribution hub in central Australia, through a connection with existing lines between Mt. Isa and Moomba, according to Botten.

He declined to comment on the cost estimates of a pared-down line versus the $US3.5 billion ($A4.7 billion) cost forecast for the original project.

The previous plan hit a roadblock last month when Australian Gas Light Co, the project's chief architect, said it might pull out due to a lack of firm buyers for the gas amid rising construction costs.

Companies involved in the project will be considering the new design over the coming weeks, Botten said.

Australian Gas Chief Executive Officer Paul Anthony told reporters approval by the pipeline's partners, including Exxon Mobil Corp, was not imminent.

"It's a significant change to the original plan, so they are going to take some time," he told reporters.

Although the new plan would not require constructing a new pipeline the entire distance to Moomba, it would force other pipelines that would be used to upgrade their facilities.

Australian Gas is responsible for designing and building the pipeline with Malaysian partner Petronas and has committed to buying about 40 per cent of the gas.


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## Warren Buffet II (22 September 2006)

The prices of natural gas has been dropping for the last 3 to 4 months to very low levels, I can't remember the exact numbers but I was in the US this week and saw this article in the first page of The Wall Street Journal about an investment  group that have lost more than $5bn in the last month from investment in natural gas companies, no very inspiring I would say.

So the question is, have all these problems with this pipeline have happened because of this natural gas dropping prices? is the project still viable of is just a I have to do to prove myself (Oil Search)

WBII


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## chicken (26 September 2006)

*OSH   oversold*

bought at $3.03.....got a 7cents div. ex 25thSeptember...and stock is rising...this is worth $4+....when I bought it had a PE of 3.....now how stupid are the sellers?.....had a write up in Smart Investor....Load up the truck...that is what I say


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## michael_selway (26 September 2006)

*Re: OSH   oversold*



			
				chicken said:
			
		

> bought at $3.03.....got a 7cents div. ex 25thSeptember...and stock is rising...this is worth $4+....when I bought it had a PE of 3.....now how stupid are the sellers?.....had a write up in Smart Investor....Load up the truck...that is what I say




How did u get PE of 3?

Earnings and Dividends Forecast (cents per share) 
2005 2006 2007 2008 
EPS 24.3 28.9 28.2 21.2 
DPS 9.5 11.4 11.0 11.0 

thx

MS


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## chicken (26 September 2006)

*Re: OSH   oversold*



			
				michael_selway said:
			
		

> How did u get PE of 3?
> 
> Earnings and Dividends Forecast (cents per share)
> 2005 2006 2007 2008
> ...



Simple,...those PE you quote were when the SP was $4.80......now its $3.15..I bought at $3.03 -7cents= $2.96....after all I owned them for not quite a week......so bargain here


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## chicken (27 September 2006)

*Re: OSH   oversold*



			
				chicken said:
			
		

> Simple,...those PE you quote were when the SP was $4.80......now its $3.15..I bought at $3.03 -7cents= $2.96....after all I owned them for not quite a week......so bargain here



OVERSOLD>>>>price target..$4.85.....PE too low....will rise...


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## Sean K (27 September 2006)

*Re: OSH   oversold*



			
				chicken said:
			
		

> OVERSOLD>>>>price target..$4.85.....PE too low....will rise...




Chicken, for once, I might agree with you. Not because I own OSH, but because of the current fundamentals of the company. sp has been smashed for 2 reasons: Doubts over PNG pipeline (which I think will get up) and the oil and gas price dropping (which I think is temporary). Would like to know the current pe at this price actually. Would be pretty low. MS any idea?


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## dubiousinfo (27 September 2006)

*Re: OSH   oversold*



			
				kennas said:
			
		

> Chicken, for once, I might agree with you. Not because I own OSH, but because of the current fundamentals of the company. sp has been smashed for 2 reasons: Doubts over PNG pipeline (which I think will get up) and the oil and gas price dropping (which I think is temporary). Would like to know the current pe at this price actually. Would be pretty low. MS any idea?




I put up some numbers in an earlier post using a SP of $3.32. Here are the same numbers using a SP of $3.20



The half yearly report to June 06 shows earnings for the 6 Months of US33.2c/Shr equivalent to AUS43.6c/Shr.

However, US22.9c was attributable to abnormal items, namely the sale of asssets to AGL, which will not be repeated.

The actual profit for the 6 months from ongoing operations was US10.3c. If profit for the second half is similar to the first half, (excluding the abnormal items for the 2nd half), this will give them first half US$33.2 + second half US$10.3 = US43.5c/Shr, equivalent to AUS57.2c/Shr & at a SP of $3.20, a PE of 5.6.

If you were to exclude abnormal items entirely & only consider the ongoing operations, profit for the year would theoretically be 10.3+10.3=US20.6/Shr, equivalent to AUS27.1c/Shr & a PE of 11.8 based on a share price of $3.20


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## chicken (27 September 2006)

*Re: OSH   oversold*



			
				dubiousinfo said:
			
		

> I put up some numbers in an earlier post using a SP of $3.32. Here are the same numbers using a SP of $3.20
> 
> 
> 
> ...



Funny that..look what tradingroom said..earnings 62cents per share PE 5.6....well its still oversold and UNDERVALUED...target price $4.85....that what Chicken says.....


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## chicken (29 September 2006)

*Re: OSH   oversold*



			
				chicken said:
			
		

> Funny that..look what tradingroom said..earnings 62cents per share PE 5.6....well its still oversold and UNDERVALUED...target price $4.85....that what Chicken says.....



Hugh volume..+ opened at $3.50......I told you to LOAD UP THE TRUCK AT $3.03......easy money here....target price $4.85.....could even go higher....


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## justjohn (29 September 2006)

*Re: OSH   oversold*



			
				chicken said:
			
		

> Hugh volume..+ opened at $3.50......I told you to LOAD UP THE TRUCK AT $3.03......easy money here....target price $4.85.....could even go higher....



Chicken how many trucks have you got  :screwy:


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## cogidubnus (29 September 2006)

*Re: OSH   oversold*



			
				chicken said:
			
		

> Hugh volume..+ opened at $3.50......I told you to LOAD UP THE TRUCK AT $3.03......easy money here....target price $4.85.....could even go higher....



this is good I will buy more at .65


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## niknah (29 September 2006)

The PE is based upon next few year's sales which is mostly from gradually decreasing oil production until 2010+ when they could transform into a mostly gas company.
Depending on the gas outlook they could fall even further or go all the way up.  The worse case senario is if they put the gas back on the shelf for another 10yrs which is unlikely at this time.

Here's a chart from their presentation(this is the best case senario for them. The big bits: LNG, petrochemicals, are gas related)...


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## chicken (29 September 2006)

niknah said:
			
		

> The PE is based upon next few year's sales which is mostly from gradually decreasing oil production until 2010+ when they could transform into a mostly gas company.
> Depending on the gas outlook they could fall even further or go all the way up.  The worse case senario is if they put the gas back on the shelf for another 10yrs which is unlikely at this time.
> 
> Here's a chart from their presentation(this is the best case senario for them. The big bits: LNG, petrochemicals, are gas related)...



This is the present situation...BUT....the new drillings they are doing are NOT even included in their presentations...in EGYPT,IN IRAN,AUSTRALIA.Plus they got a huge pot of $$$$$ nearly $600million in the bank....as I said before...I loaded the truck as far as the other poster at 65cents...well stupidity does not make money..you snooze you lose..which most of you have....and posting stupid remarks just shows you got no idea what you are saying....if you want to learn well start listening to good advise..but always DO YOUR RESEARCH


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## niknah (29 September 2006)

The gas projects are all big multi billion dollar things, they're going to need $600mill and more to put it together, but they'll probably do something else with it if the gas doesn't go ahead.

Here's one with the oil that they may or may not find(not sure if they've started the new PNG explorations yet)...


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## chicken (29 September 2006)

niknah said:
			
		

> The gas projects are all big multi billion dollar things, they're going to need $600mill and more to put it together, but they'll probably do something else with it if the gas doesn't go ahead.
> 
> Here's one with the oil that they may or may not find(not sure if they've started the new PNG explorations yet)...



You forgot to mention...OSH  has the PNGGoverment as major shareholder... because of that getting $$$ is NO PROBLEM....Goverment guranteed....you see what the real situation is...and as some one said about a takeover forget that as the PNG Goverment does NOT sell its stake in the company...so you can see there is more in play than just the shares...PNG Goverment decides who gets what...and OSH will get ALL the cream because of the Goverment Share holding...better believe that...I know as I spend some time there....


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## Joe Blow (29 September 2006)

No more personal insults please. I've deleted two posts in this thread already.

Lets stay civil and on topic.


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## chicken (30 September 2006)

Great volume nearly 20million shares traded for the day....good rebounde of lows...as oil not falling much further...and the stock featured at Smart Investor...will rise..brokers have a price target of $4.85....great trading stock as it has a great swing per day...I am holding as upside potential is great...as far as takeover...PNG Goverment DOES NOT SELL its shares...wise move...as this share came from nothing to $4.89...and now on its way back...Chinese will cut a deal here with the company to obtain access to its gas...as its in the Chinese intrest to do so...also the company is in Egypt,Iran,Australia...as far as the pipeline may now instigate the shorter version...LPG plant will be build in Port Morsby....by the Chinese..so they have got a lot on their plate...OSH is the greatest earner for PNG...so make your research but as the brokers say the company is worth a lot more than present price....it will all gel...in time...and great little div at present....a share which should be on everyones watch list...I recently bought in at $3.03..when I said LOAD UP THE TRUCK....


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## Sean K (2 October 2006)

Article in Fin this am saying there was a rumour floating around Friday that a Chinese consortium were looking at a $5.00 takeover of OSH. I like these sort of rumours. Wonder how the market will react today.


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## chicken (5 October 2006)

kennas said:
			
		

> Article in Fin this am saying there was a rumour floating around Friday that a Chinese consortium were looking at a $5.00 takeover of OSH. I like these sort of rumours. Wonder how the market will react today.



Look at buyers depth...lots of Buyers no sellers...something is going on here....ready to go wooooooosh....told you all to load up the truck...up 13cents and rising.....MBA has a target of $4.86


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## GreatPig (5 October 2006)

A graphical update of the current action.

Price right now is $3.31.

GP


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## Sean K (5 October 2006)

Your charts are so much prettier than mine GP. 

Up 5% today. Unusual. Perhaps just recovery for the next leg down when oil goes to $40 bb. Not likely. 

Come on China! You need OSH! At $5.00!


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## chicken (5 October 2006)

kennas said:
			
		

> Your charts are so much prettier than mine GP.
> 
> Up 5% today. Unusual. Perhaps just recovery for the next leg down when oil goes to $40 bb. Not likely.
> 
> Come on China! You need OSH! At $5.00!



Hope you are right...see they found traces of oil in Egypt...still drilling further..some one must know its positive...big buyers buying big...see volume...could also be the yankees....wanting in....this one is ready to pop north...yep  bring on the $5....niece one.....as I said before..load up the truck at $3.08...I did


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## GreatPig (5 October 2006)

kennas said:
			
		

> Up 5% today. Unusual.



Actually I have 6%, but yesterday was down 5.7%, so just recovering yesterday's fall.

GP


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## chicken (6 October 2006)

chicken said:
			
		

> Hope you are right...see they found traces of oil in Egypt...still drilling further..some one must know its positive...big buyers buying big...see volume...could also be the yankees....wanting in....this one is ready to pop north...yep  bring on the $5....niece one.....as I said before..load up the truck at $3.08...I did



Will be an intresting day today.....OIL up..Gold up.....hope some of you got on this one..also great trading stock for trading...I am holding as when the announcement out..what will it be worth????? lololololol


----------



## chicken (13 October 2006)

See oilsearch..has now got oil in Egypt....just discovered....and now the other new fields coming up...


----------



## chicken (18 October 2006)

chicken said:
			
		

> See oilsearch..has now got oil in Egypt....just discovered....and now the other new fields coming up...



Long and strong..just keeps going higher....sold a few...but price keeps climbing....what is it worth....going higher by looks of things....


----------



## champ2003 (18 October 2006)

LOL ramp ramp ramp!


----------



## swingstar (18 October 2006)

I like RK's count. Looks to me now that we're beginning a wave iii of wave 5? So very bullish still.


----------



## chicken (19 October 2006)

champ2003 said:
			
		

> LOL ramp ramp ramp!



This one does not need to be ramped...see volume and see price...I will buy some more on any weakness....Maquarie have a target price of $4.85....


----------



## porkpie324 (19 October 2006)

chicken what do you mean "see volume and see price" OSH has been trading at below average vol for months apart from a few days in August. porkpie


----------



## champ2003 (19 October 2006)

Sorry chicken you are right. It doesn't need to be ramped. I was only joking because no-one else seemed to be chatting about it and you seemed to be talking to yourself. I agree OSH is a good stock. I made heaps out of it. I bought it at $1 and sold for $3.30 way back. Good luck with this one as its a good long term stock.


----------



## chicken (22 October 2006)

champ2003 said:
			
		

> Sorry chicken you are right. It doesn't need to be ramped. I was only joking because no-one else seemed to be chatting about it and you seemed to be talking to yourself. I agree OSH is a good stock. I made heaps out of it. I bought it at $1 and sold for $3.30 way back. Good luck with this one as its a good long term stock.



By the way I heared Chevron BUYING all shares they can get...hold on to your shares something is up for sure.......as Macquarie put a value of $4.85 at least on the shares.


----------



## sleeper88 (22 October 2006)

does the $4.85 valuation factor in the successful development of PNG pipeline project?


----------



## GreatPig (22 October 2006)

Technically there's a possible inverse H&S pattern completed on Friday. Upside target would be about $4.

Cheers,
GP


----------



## chicken (23 October 2006)

sleeper88 said:
			
		

> does the $4.85 valuation factor in the successful development of PNG pipeline project?



NO, just the company as it stands....see Mcquarie report....AS IS...the pipeline will add further impetus..see what I said about cHEVRON OIL IN the USA...are buying big..see sales of 20million shares sold on friday....its all going to happen for OSH shareholders...Great pig....more than your forecasted $4..+++++ I say , from the Chicken...


----------



## chicken (24 October 2006)

Osh in trading halt.........


----------



## porkpie324 (24 October 2006)

What trading halt!, the only an today is quartily rep. porkpie


----------



## redandgreen (24 October 2006)

Check ASX website!


----------



## porkpie324 (24 October 2006)

Well it must have been a quickie , nothing showed on my sceen. porkpie


----------



## sails (24 October 2006)

Trading halt did occour today -
Notice received at 11:09
Resumed at 11:21
Reason - announcement of 3Q Activities Report


----------



## redandgreen (24 October 2006)

sails said:
			
		

> Trading halt did occour today -
> Notice received at 11:09
> Resumed at 11:21
> Reason - announcement of 3Q Activities Report




Strange indeed!
Why a Trading Halt?  Something fishy going down here..


----------



## chicken (24 October 2006)

now trading at $3.43....and rising picked up more at $3.40.....anyone short here will lose money for sure


----------



## BSD (24 October 2006)

chicken said:
			
		

> NO, just the company as it stands....see Mcquarie report....AS IS...the pipeline will add further impetus..see what I said about cHEVRON OIL IN the USA...are buying big..see sales of 20million shares sold on friday.......





Not true. 

The value prescribed to the monetisation of the PNG gas by way of pipeline or other options in the Macquarie model is above $1.00 of the $4.85 valuation.

You are still getting all the gas for free at the moment, so it remains a stunning deal, but the existing operations are not worth $4.85. 


Any colour able to be added to the Chevron comments? 

Volume has been excellent and the price resilient against falling oil price - but I haven't heard anyone mentioning Chevron. 

1.1 billion on issue - 5% will be 55m shares. They must be close if they are "buying all they can get their hands on"


----------



## chicken (26 October 2006)

BSD said:
			
		

> Not true.
> 
> The value prescribed to the monetisation of the PNG gas by way of pipeline or other options in the Macquarie model is above $1.00 of the $4.85 valuation.
> 
> ...



......You said the present operations are not worth $4.85....another word you are more clever than the millionairs factory Mcquarie...you make me laugh....its in fact worth a lot more..why...Osh found oil in Egypt now...and look how much they make..I noticed the first sale went through at $3.72////.....see it go woooosh today....and oil will be heading back in price..to US $100...maybe even more...you will see...OSH s value is more like $8...in my book...


----------



## BSD (26 October 2006)

I am glad I make you laugh, muppet. 

According to the valuation model layed out on the back page of the Macquarie note from 3rd October 2006 - the $4.85 value is broken down as such:

Kutubu                         $0.93
Moran                          $0.94
Gobe                            $0.09
Hides                           $0.04
Nabrajah                      $0.12
Mananda                      $0.19
Juha                            $0.14
*PNG GAS PIPELINE          $0.45*
Capitalised G&A              -$0.18

*Group NPV                    $3.65*

Discovered Undeveloped    $1.25
Other Uncontracted Gas   $0.62

*Target Price                  $4.85*

So, the $4.85 contains $0.45 for the pipeline and another $1.87 for other gas reserves. 

The first sale today was nowhere near $3.72 - that may have been the top bid in the match, it certainly didnt trade at $3.72

Listening to your rants has probably put people off buying this great stock

Do your homework.


----------



## chicken (10 November 2006)

chicken said:
			
		

> ......You said the present operations are not worth $4.85....another word you are more clever than the millionairs factory Mcquarie...you make me laugh....its in fact worth a lot more..why...Osh found oil in Egypt now...and look how much they make..I noticed the first sale went through at $3.72////.....see it go woooosh today....and oil will be heading back in price..to US $100...maybe even more...you will see...OSH s value is more like $8...in my book...



A woooooosh day for OSH today.....price of oil UP, price of gas Up.....OSH reving its engine...told you so..Chicken does it again...LOLOLOLOLO


----------



## champ2003 (12 November 2006)

Actually all major oil stocks go up at this time of the year as it's the cyclical pattern so for the next 3 months it looks good. Some oil stocks will outperform others though. As for OSH i'm watching on the sidelines until this time next year because from this time next year and within 3 years thereafter OSH's production will most likely go up 4 fold but until then I'll be watching,.


----------



## Ken (19 November 2006)

major resources and oil companies all come off of late.

market has risen however....  it will swing...


----------



## chicken (24 November 2006)

Found OIL in Egypt....OSH 1/2 share in this find see news out.....


----------



## chops_a_must (24 November 2006)

chicken said:
			
		

> Found OIL in Egypt....OSH 1/2 share in this find see news out.....



Any reason it's heading down? Apart from the lower oil price that is.


----------



## The Mint Man (5 December 2006)

Is it just me or is OSH looking like a good buy?

Cheers

PS: Chicken, we already know what you think


----------



## chops_a_must (5 December 2006)

The Mint Man said:
			
		

> Is it just me or is OSH looking like a good buy?
> 
> Cheers



Yes, it does. Resistance at 3.40 though. Brilliant news moves it one step forward, a minute drop in oil price moves it two steps back.


----------



## Ken (5 December 2006)

In order of pure Oil and gas plays

Does it go:

Woodside
Santos
Oilsearch

Anyone jump on them at $3.26 for a cheeky profit for when they hit $3.40 again?

Anyone got some 12 month price targets for this one?  Or is it Macquarie $4.85?


----------



## Sean K (5 December 2006)

The Mint Man said:
			
		

> Is it just me or is OSH looking like a good buy?



I don't think so. It might be when it gets to around the green circle. Will then have cleared some short term resistance and reached a new high. Couldn't possibly say it's in an uptrend right now.

I bought this at $0.60 a little while ago   and sold those at about $3.00. Re-entered at about $3.50 about 12 months ago and am a bit disappointed in it now. Great long term potential, but looks tenuous at the moment. I will sell if it breaks down through $3.00 again and put my $$ to use elsewhere.


----------



## Ken (5 December 2006)

If PNG goes well will it head towards the $5 mark?  

The graphs tells a story.  Whats behind the graph going up and down is more important.

OSH to go boom... cause i bought some at 3.26 last trade of the day....

hehe


----------



## Sean K (5 December 2006)

Ken said:
			
		

> If PNG goes well will it head towards the $5 mark?
> 
> The graphs tells a story.  Whats behind the graph going up and down is more important.
> 
> ...



Well, I hope it goes to $10 Ken, but it may be 2010. 

Good luck, I hope you've got the bottom!


----------



## Ken (5 December 2006)

i'll take $10 a share by 2010.

will take $4 a share in by 2008 too.


----------



## constable (5 December 2006)

Ken said:
			
		

> If PNG goes well will it head towards the $5 mark?
> 
> The graphs tells a story.  Whats behind the graph going up and down is more important.
> 
> ...



Ken why are you always bullish in your posts? More curious than anything else!


----------



## Sean K (5 December 2006)

Another perspective:

Exploration Upside, Attractive Valuation Make Oil Search A Buy
FN Arena News - December 05 2006 

By Chris Shaw

Last week Barclays Capital suggested technical indicators for the oil price were turning positive and both the oil price and stocks in the sector subsequently rallied somewhat from recent lows.

Woodside Petroleum (WPL) has managed to hold onto most of its gains but the same cannot be said for Oil Search (OSH), which has fallen back towards the $3.25 price level the Tech Wizard suggests is key from a technical standpoint.

Morgan Stanley has also looked as Oil Search at this level and reached the conclusion, technicals notwithstanding, the shares are cheap. The broker has an Overweight rating and $4.20 price target on the stock, as in its view the risk is biased to the upside.

The broker's valuation stands at $3.62, though at an absolute minimum it sees a base of $2.73 assuming nil value for the company's gas assets and no exploration success. Exploration will potentially be a feature in the coming year as the company has 17 appraisal wells planned in Papua New Guinea and 30 wells planned in the Middle East and North Africa, the largest program in its history.

Assuming both some exploration success and development of the gas assets the broker can generate a valuation of $5.75, which is suggestive of the upside potential in the stock. It sees the gas operations as now looking far healthier as it notes the company is exploring a number of options in terms of delivery of its PNG gas reserves, including LNG, urea and methanol. At the same time it suggests little value is being ascribed to the gas assets, which in reserves terms are 10 times as big as the company's oil reserves.

Funding for the extensive exploration program and development of the gas operations should not be an issue, as on the broker's numbers the company has around $650m of cash reserves on its balance sheet.

While there is upside from future exploration the existing operations have been somewhat disappointing, prompting Aspect Huntley to recently downgrade the stock to Hold from Accumulate. Morgan Stanley has taken this into consideration, cutting its earnings estimates for the current year to 25c per share from 29c and in 2007 to 19c from 23c.

Other brokers recently made similar adjustments to forecasts, but the FNArena database shows the average price target on the stock is $4.21, which is well above the current market price.

In the database Oil Search is rated as Buy seven times and Neutral twice, so Morgan Stanley's optimistic outlook is a fairly common view. This has not helped the shares today though, as Oil Search has fallen following a drop in the oil price overnight. As at $3.10pm the shares were down 6c at $3.27.


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## Ken (5 December 2006)

I am bullish on the stocks i have an interest in or am looking at buying.

I dont go short on any stocks.  So I guess i am  just venting where i feel the stock is heading.

I am long term investor.  So not looking for overnight success.

Maybe a couple i have got a bit carried away. 

I currently hold so i see this going up or getting  a good return from.

COE
RCO
BHP
OSH
FDL
AXT
RRT
SEL
TLS 3

I have no interest in stocks going down i guess......


----------



## constable (5 December 2006)

Ken said:
			
		

> I am bullish on the stocks i have an interest in or am looking at buying.
> 
> I dont go short on any stocks.  So I guess i am  just venting where i feel the stock is heading.
> 
> ...



Dumped bhp on open after holding overnight! In the same boat on fdl, graph looks like it could run anytime but it has a fair barrier to get thru. Thought you were in gdn and sen as well?


----------



## Ken (5 December 2006)

nope not in gdn and sen.

FDL and COE are my only specs

BHP, OSH, COE, RCO, RRT, T3, SEL (to MFS) i hold long term.


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## The Mint Man (6 December 2006)

Im most likely to get in today, or at least before weeks end.
I have done plenty of research so chicken will be happy with me  I have read and watched their announcements and was most impressed with their programe for next year as Kennas's post suggests


> Exploration will potentially be a feature in the coming year as the company has 17 appraisal wells planned in Papua New Guinea and 30 wells planned in the Middle East and North Africa, the largest program in its history.



I noticed that they didnt mention that OSH has (from memory) 2 more rigs coming on line next year to cope with the extra work load, one in the first half of 2007 and one later on in the year. So it looks to me that they are steaming ahead in 2007.
I am looking at these long term, 2010, so Im glad that year has been mentioned by a couple of you....

cheers


----------



## Ken (6 December 2006)

chicken is a genious.

he pointed many in the direction of AGM and thats booming.  surely OSH will follow!


----------



## Sean K (6 December 2006)

Ken said:
			
		

> chicken is a genious.



 Let me pick my teeth back off the floor. LOL.


----------



## Ken (6 December 2006)

lol

wishfull thinking....
anyways

on a factual note


there was an article on PNG


http://au.biz.yahoo.com/061206/19/105co.html

basically says PNG misses boom.

so far we hope!


----------



## The Mint Man (8 December 2006)

any idea why they are seeing a drop today?


----------



## Sean K (8 December 2006)

The Mint Man said:
			
		

> any idea why they are seeing a drop today?



POO up 1/2 % so


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## The Mint Man (8 December 2006)

No One has a reply? Ok, you must be scratching your head like me  
Anyway I received my Money magazine yesterday after noon and noticed that Ross Greenwood has recommended WPL & *OSH* as a *BUY* at market, at the time of writing OSH was going for $3.32. So today is a real good price IMO.
cheers

EDIT: Sorry kennas... I started writing this reply before you posted your last post but got I distracted while writing. Anyway thanks for your reply. confirms my thoughts.


----------



## Sean K (8 December 2006)

The Mint Man said:
			
		

> No One has a reply? Ok, you must be scratching your head like me
> Anyway I received my Money magazine yesterday after noon and noticed that Ross Greenwood has recommended WPL & *OSH* as a *BUY* at market, at the time of writing OSH was going for $3.32. So today is a real good price IMO.
> cheers
> 
> EDIT: Sorry kennas... I started writing this reply before you posted your last post but got I distracted while writing. Anyway thanks for your reply. confirms my thoughts.



MM, I'm long OSH, and buying into dips. This is a dip.


----------



## The Mint Man (8 December 2006)

Same here. I plan to hold for at least 3 years providing things dont go too bad of course. I think OSH will see some glory within that time, next years schedule alone should yield some good results IMO, How good is yet to be seen.
Cheers


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## Ken (8 December 2006)

I was planning to hold OSH long but NXS dipped below 130's. OSH is bouncing up and down.  do figured get out whilst i was a little bit up and have a nibble and nexus.

bit of a fluke that osh is down and nxs is up. could be different tommorow. could easily have gone the other way.


----------



## Sean K (21 December 2006)

OSH may have found a bottom and POI is heading generally back up. 

Not much news on PNG pipeline lately, and I guess the market has factored in that this is just a remote chance of getting up now. Or does anyone still think that this is essential for the company?

Chart wise, it could possibly be starting to regain some traction. If it gets to the green circle making higher lows, than I'd have to move this to the potential breakout alert thread.


----------



## chicken (24 December 2006)

kennas said:
			
		

> MM, I'm long OSH, and buying into dips. This is a dip.



Kennas no truer word spoken...best for longterm hold good divs I am buying more.....the Sp could or will be A LOT higher in a few years..good one to sit on....their gas reserves are in billions


----------



## chops_a_must (10 January 2007)

This has held up surprisingly well given the circumstances of late. If the oil price rebounds, look out.


----------



## Sean K (10 January 2007)

chops_a_must said:
			
		

> This has held up surprisingly well given the circumstances of late. If the oil price rebounds, look out.



Chops, I must agree, (even though I'm holding it) Very surprising. 

Why do you think that is? POI has come off a ton, PNG is looking unlikely, no other big ann of discoveries, purchases etc.....You have a theory?


----------



## chops_a_must (10 January 2007)

kennas said:
			
		

> You have a theory?



I wouldn't have a clue. In general the oilers and energy stocks have done ok this week. Even STO has firmed up. Its long term prospects look good, with a general uptrend in oil prices still there. Apart from that, I wouldn't have a clue.


----------



## reece55 (14 January 2007)

Guys

OSH has held up well. In fact, it would have to be one of the few oil/gas plays that have stood the test in the slide of the price of oil and gas....... I note that JP Morgan have taken a 5% stake and looking at the trade list, the average price would be greater than current market price. Is there something going on here???? Not sure, but watch this space. Strong support at about 2.90 and Fridays close was nice.

Cheers


----------



## Sean K (24 January 2007)

I'm not sure if POI has found a bottom yet, but this held up remarkably, after responding well to that nasty H&S a few months back. Now consolidating sideways in a pretty tight range, but looks like it might be moving higher with the MACD looking positive.  Breaking $3.50 will be start of a recovery perhaps. 

(holding)


----------



## chops_a_must (24 January 2007)

The volume gives this one away Kennas. If the price of oil holds up, might see a run at 3.50 tomorrow.

Edit: Or this afternoon... take your pick. (Went up another 2c as I was posting this.)


----------



## The Mint Man (24 January 2007)

kennas said:
			
		

> I'm not sure if POI has found a bottom yet, but this held up remarkably, after responding well to that nasty H&S a few months back. Now consolidating sideways in a pretty tight range, but looks like it might be moving higher with the MACD looking positive.  Breaking $3.50 will be start of a recovery perhaps.
> 
> (holding)




cant agree more,
when I bought in a couple of months ago at $3.25, for the next two days it went as low as $3.12 (from memory) on no news at all and the POO was about $61..... I thought to myself 'whats going on here?'. However the price came up quickly on the 3rd day to about what I had bought at. 
Anyway, over the last few weeks I was expecting OSH to drop due to POO (which droped around $10 since then) considering what happened when i first bought in, but how wrong was I. 
It has held up really well at about what I bought at ($3.25) recently. OSH has got alot going on this year. They have also recently suspended the Kareem Nubia-1 well as a 'future producer' of which they own 100%. you can see this on their drilling report dated 11 January 2007.

cheers


----------



## TjamesX (24 January 2007)

Guys the price of Oil is not the only thing moving OSH, its up 3.6% today - way ahead of other oilers.

PNG to Aus is dead
PNG to LNG is alive and well

I reckon instos are buying - all will be revealed soon


----------



## TjamesX (24 January 2007)

Surely an announcement sooner rather than later - now up 5% (edit now 5.7%) today! on good volume


----------



## reece55 (24 January 2007)

What a run today for Oil Search........

Up 23 cents today - are we going to see it break out of the 3 - 3.60 price range that we have seen in place for the last 5 months????? Volume up, nice close on highs - I like the looks of this one here......... Instos have topped up of late and their average acquisition price is about the 3.50 - 3.60 mark, so watch this one.......

It always amazes me thought when a share has a run and is about to breakout of a consolidation pattern and everyone sells off the stock (number 3 most sold stock today on Comsec). This is when you look to get in, not out!

Best of luck to all holders.

Cheers


----------



## theasxgorilla (24 January 2007)

reece55 said:
			
		

> It always amazes me thought when a share has a run and is about to breakout of a consolidation pattern and everyone sells off the stock (number 3 most sold stock today on Comsec). This is when you look to get in, not out!
> 
> Best of luck to all holders.
> 
> Cheers




They had to buy the price up almost 7% to get to all those sellers though!


----------



## Young Gun (24 January 2007)

Up almost 7% on speculation of a takeover bid from British Gas. Wouldnt be suprised to see an announcement mid next week with further details. Based on the companies reserves and any premium, what do you think a reasonable offer price for the company is? Im guessing about $5.00.


----------



## The Mint Man (24 January 2007)

Wow, only just checked back up on OSH and was pleasantly supprised with almost a 7% rise.  



			
				Young Gun said:
			
		

> Up almost 7% on speculation of a takeover bid from British Gas. Wouldnt be suprised to see an announcement mid next week with further details. Based on the companies reserves and any premium, what do you think a reasonable offer price for the company is? Im guessing about $5.00.




Where is this info Young gun? maybe got a link or paper I could pick up to read this? I would be interested to read it.

cheers


----------



## Young Gun (24 January 2007)

The Mint Man said:
			
		

> Wow, only just checked back up on OSH and was pleasantly supprised with almost a 7% rise.
> 
> Where is this info Young gun? maybe got a link or paper I could pick up to read this? I would be interested to read it.
> 
> cheers




Wish I could call it my own    
but found this out from hotcopper another forum. 

A couple of guys posted up about this including an article they sourced somewhere not sure where through : 

Oil Search (OSH.AU) gaining on market speculation it could soon
fall prey to tentative LNG partner British Gas. PNG explorer and producer signs MOU with
BG in August 2006, with LNG more appealing now that PNG-Australia pipe project now less
likely to proceed. "I have always thought Oil Search was a target for a long
time," says senior trader, with cash holdings of A$300m and upwards also attractive
to bidder. OSH up 6% or 20c to A$3.52.


----------



## Bush Trader (24 January 2007)

The Mint Man said:
			
		

> Wow, only just checked back up on OSH and was pleasantly supprised with almost a 7% rise.
> 
> Where is this info Young gun? maybe got a link or paper I could pick up to read this? I would be interested to read it.
> 
> cheers





Article was published in FNArena

Cheers


----------



## reece55 (24 January 2007)

Young Gun said:
			
		

> Up almost 7% on speculation of a takeover bid from British Gas. Wouldnt be suprised to see an announcement mid next week with further details. Based on the companies reserves and any premium, what do you think a reasonable offer price for the company is? Im guessing about $5.00.




Young Gun
Due to the hot copper quote and the recent press, I am almost certain a price query letter is on their desk right now, which most likely will be required to be responded to before pre-open tomorrow, so I don't think we will have to wait long. It was a complete fluke that I spotted this one today - looked at 3:50 pm and saw that it was sold off on Comsec - reviewed the volume and the breakout and bought myself some. I didn't actually know the rumour till I looked after buying in! 

In reference to the price, I would think $5.00 would be a bit high, considering the falls that oil and gas have had of late. They would probably have to go to at about $4.50 to get approval IMO, which implies about about a 36% premium to a VWAP for the last few months (I am assuming about $3.30 as an average price). 

Best of luck here to all holders

Cheers


----------



## scsl (24 January 2007)

An OSH spokeswoman has given the standard "not aware of any pending takeover" line... I seriously hope OSH gets an offer soon!



> *PNG's Oil Search Says No M&A Signs As Traders Speculate*
> 
> MELBOURNE (Dow Jones)--Oil Search Ltd. (OSH.AU) said Wednesday it is not aware of any pending takeover as its shares surged amid market speculation that a global producer might be interested in the Papua New Guinea oil and gas company.
> With BHP Billiton (BHP), British Gas (BG.LN) and BP Plc. (BP.LN) all mentioned by traders, Oil Search shares added 7% to close at A$3.55, valuing the company at about A$3.98 billion. About 21.6 million shares or 2% of its stock changed hands, about four times the daily average.
> ...


----------



## The Mint Man (25 January 2007)

OSH says 'I know nothing'  down a couple %
we'll see.

cheers


----------



## chops_a_must (25 January 2007)

The Mint Man said:
			
		

> OSH says 'I know nothing'  down a couple %
> we'll see.
> 
> cheers



Surely they would know about that article. Lol!


----------



## TjamesX (1 February 2007)

OSH have fessed up - PNG gas to Aus is officially dead.

Market have pushed OSH above 3.60 as it looks more likely other gas commercialisation opportunities may be more attractive (remember OSH was at 4.5-4.2 before AGL pulled out of pipeline project) if LNG etc are more attractive then could we see upwards of these prices?? - I think so

TJ


----------



## The Mint Man (5 February 2007)

OSH having a strong run today  
up almost 4% at the moment.


----------



## The Mint Man (5 February 2007)

Also, just noticed OSH come up on the most popular stock list on Comsec.
5th on the most sold list ATM


----------



## chops_a_must (5 February 2007)

The Mint Man said:
			
		

> Also, just noticed OSH come up on the most popular stock list on Comsec.
> 5th on the most sold list ATM



Yeah, but that indicates the retards.

"Better not look stupid. I'll just do whatever everyone else is doing."

It's having a really strong run, so let the uptrend take its course.


----------



## The Mint Man (5 February 2007)

chops_a_must said:
			
		

> Yeah, but that indicates the retards.
> 
> "Better not look stupid. I'll just do whatever everyone else is doing."
> 
> It's having a really strong run, so let the uptrend take its course.



haha, yeh... it looks that way, up to 1st spot on the sold list since I posted last. oh well.as mentioned several times before, I wont be selling any time soon.


----------



## theasxgorilla (10 February 2007)

TjamesX said:
			
		

> OSH have fessed up - PNG gas to Aus is officially dead.
> 
> Market have pushed OSH above 3.60 as it looks more likely other gas commercialisation opportunities may be more attractive (remember OSH was at 4.5-4.2 before AGL pulled out of pipeline project) if LNG etc are more attractive then could we see upwards of these prices?? - I think so
> 
> TJ




What is the fundamental story on this stock?  Isn't the PNG LNG annoucement bad news?  Yet excluding the last few days of last week the share price has been rather bullish.


----------



## scsl (11 February 2007)

theasxgorilla said:
			
		

> What is the fundamental story on this stock?  Isn't the PNG LNG annoucement bad news?  Yet excluding the last few days of last week the share price has been rather bullish.



It's because the PNG project had suffered delays and cost blow outs. This allows management to now focus on other gas commercialisation options, which has been said to demonstrate "higher value and return potential".

I've read that the pipeline isn't dead yet - it'll remain an option in the medium-long term. Understandably, OSH will still keep the gas fields, as eventually, the east coast of Australia _will_ need the supply.

The oil price continuing to rise from its low of $50 didn't hurt OSH's cause either.


----------



## chops_a_must (14 February 2007)

OSH looks as though it might be running out of steam for this little push. Hopefully it can keep the uptrend going.


----------



## The Mint Man (20 February 2007)

Just released:


> RESULTS FOR THE YEAR ENDED 31 DECEMBER 2006​20 February 2007
> 
> *OIL SEARCH ANNOUNCES A RECORD NET PROFIT AFTER
> TAX OF US$412.0 MILLION*​
> ...




You will have to look at the announcements page on your brokers website, ASX or oil search site for the full ann as its 70 pages long.

Cheers


----------



## JBMMMMMMMMMM (22 February 2007)

Watched OSH open well with three large buyers total some 600,000 in bids looking for a share in OSH not going through but driving SP up to 364 looking good to hit 368+ then like magic the 3 big bid orders were gone 
with oil over $60 6 middle east drilling ongoing upcoming divie wheres all the major buyers


----------



## Sean K (16 March 2007)

OSH still in recovery mode from the PNG fallout. Looks like the market has totally factored this into the sp now and is returning to favour. Higher lows since Sep last year. Breaking these resistance lines will be tough, especially with the market volatility and POI going no where. MACD confirming that momentum is up and just about to break zero line is positive. I see it getting to the green circle on this current trajectory, but will need POI to 65 or the discovery of an elephant to get through....Having said that, I'm still waiting for the market to sort itself out before I buy another dip. 

(holding)


----------



## nomore4s (28 March 2007)

With the price of oil soaring at the moment, this is starting to look like it wants to break out. Has a bit of resistance to overcome and will probably need a bit of vol to do it. One to watch as long as oil stays high.

I don't hold.


----------



## theasxgorilla (29 March 2007)

I like this share right now for all the reasons your just mentioned and all this LNG-cartel talk might come into play.

Alas, I did a wave count on it.  This is my least favourite part with Elliott Wave...it can get in a the way of a perfectly good trade


----------



## Sean K (29 March 2007)

theasxgorilla said:


> Alas, I did a wave count on it.  This is my least favourite part with Elliott Wave...it can get in a the way of a perfectly good trade



Golly Magilla, I have no idea how you have put that count in there. Looks all over the place to me. You drinking too much I feel.  LOL. Is that an automated count, or your own judgement?


----------



## The Mint Man (29 March 2007)

Im long term on this one and so far Im very happy with it. Got in at $3.25 so Im up about 14% ATM. Plan is to hold at least until 2010..... if it keeps going like this it will doulble by then.


----------



## theasxgorilla (29 March 2007)

I may have been drinking at the time, but I've since checked it when 100% sober and the only questionable part I can see is the expanded flat count that I have in there for the highest degree wave 4 (4, circled).  And if you convert it to a line chart (which IMO is completely valid for EW, particulary on individual shares of lower liquidity), then we get a triangle...

All other counts are subdivisions of the higher degree wave 3.  I don't believe that I've violated any rules and haven't bothered to check any guidelines ie. fibbonaci relationships between waves etc...feel free to propose an alternative count.


----------



## Sean K (29 March 2007)

theasxgorilla said:


> I may have been drinking at the time, but I've since checked it when 100% sober and the only questionable part I can see is the expanded flat count that I have in there for the highest degree wave 4 (4, circled).  And if you convert it to a line chart (which IMO is completely valid for EW, particulary on individual shares of lower liquidity), then we get a triangle...
> 
> All other counts are subdivisions of the higher degree wave 3.  I don't believe that I've violated any rules and haven't bothered to check any guidelines ie. fibbonaci relationships between waves etc...feel free to propose an alternative count.



Could your last ABC, finish at your A, and this last move up be the start of a 12345? Maybe I'm just being hopeful that this is the start of a run and seeing what I want? Does look all good to me, but I'm very newbie at EW.


----------



## theasxgorilla (29 March 2007)

Why not?  Works for me.  We're headed for the highest weekly close in about 8 months...positive sign...carry on!


----------



## Sean K (29 March 2007)

As per my chart at the top, I see breaking though 3.75 ish to be hard yakka. Having said that, the other indicators are telling me momentum is UP. Maybe we rely on Iran keeping those sailors for a few more days.


----------



## It's Snake Pliskin (29 March 2007)

Kennas,
Eyeballing your chart I agree with your prognosis for EW counting. Just running  a cursory glance I see it going up according to the theory. But I am a total EW newbie, so my opinion doesn't mean anything in the big scheme of things.
Just remember EW is not applicable to everything, so those trend lines may be telling something.
Cheers.


----------



## theasxgorilla (29 March 2007)

IS there an Elliott Wave guru in the house who'd like to pick this to bits for us self-confessed amateurs?


----------



## It's Snake Pliskin (29 March 2007)

theasxgorilla said:


> IS there an Elliott Wave guru in the house who'd like to pick this to bits for us self-confessed amateurs?




Mr Gorilla,
I think they have all left.  
Quite a pity.
Cheers
Snake


----------



## theasxgorilla (30 March 2007)

It's Snake Pliskin said:


> Mr Gorilla,
> I think they have all left.
> Quite a pity.
> Cheers
> Snake




Snake, in the absence of true professionals, feel free to throw up a wave count...can't hurt...we've managed 2 variations so far...if there are more possibilities it'll help us all to know.


----------



## chops_a_must (30 March 2007)

theasxgorilla said:


> Snake, in the absence of true professionals, feel free to throw up a wave count...can't hurt...we've managed 2 variations so far...if there are more possibilities it'll help us all to know.



It looks like a complex wave 4 setup. :


----------



## It's Snake Pliskin (30 March 2007)

theasxgorilla said:


> Snake, in the absence of true professionals, feel free to throw up a wave count...can't hurt...we've managed 2 variations so far...if there are more possibilities it'll help us all to know.




ASXGorilla,

Excusing the short wave 3, which breaks the rules, it looks like a 5th wave failure unfolding. 

Abiding by the rules, wave 3 the longest, it's the same 
Maybe this is voodoo after all. Maybe it is one of the 65% unreadable using EW. 

In something I have researched recently, an EW variant, it is wave 5, no doubt.
Cheers


----------



## theasxgorilla (30 March 2007)

It's Snake Pliskin said:


> ASXGorilla,
> 
> Excusing the short wave 3, which breaks the rules, it looks like a 5th wave failure unfolding.
> 
> ...




Short wave 3 on your chart or mine?  In my count all of my wave 3s are the longest waves.

I find all of OSH quite readable up until the low in September 06.  After this point on a daily chart, I'm struggling to determine the lower degree wave counts...which makes me lean toward a continuing corrective phase, hence my original count which says this is a B, and C is yet to come....but once you switch to a weekly line chart the 5-wave downward sloping consolidation pattern between Oct and Dec 06 is quite apparent...and this is a pattern often found in Wave 2...so I'm happy enough to revise the count and say that A-B-C may have terminated back in Sept 06 and we're resuming upward impulse activity.

Going forward, price activity below $3.57 is bad, below $3.19 is worse and below $3.01 will validate the original count.

Self confessed amateur.

The ASX Gorilla.


----------



## It's Snake Pliskin (31 March 2007)

theasxgorilla said:


> Short wave 3 on your chart or mine?  In my count all of my wave 3s are the longest waves.
> 
> I find all of OSH quite readable up until the low in September 06.  After this point on a daily chart, I'm struggling to determine the lower degree wave counts...which makes me lean toward a continuing corrective phase, hence my original count which says this is a B, and C is yet to come....but once you switch to a weekly line chart the 5-wave downward sloping consolidation pattern between Oct and Dec 06 is quite apparent...and this is a pattern often found in Wave 2...so I'm happy enough to revise the count and say that A-B-C may have terminated back in Sept 06 and we're resuming upward impulse activity.
> 
> ...




Mr Gorilla,
I used Kennas's chart so my comments may not be useful. Still EW novice with little knowledge of it.
Cheers
Snake


----------



## The Mint Man (9 May 2007)

Question,
What is it going to take to get OSH moving up?
Looking at the chart it has just been doing a whole lot of up and down for the last couple of months, with the range becoming tighter and tighter.
I am interested in hearing all of your views.

Cheers


----------



## Sean K (9 May 2007)

The Mint Man said:


> Question,
> What is it going to take to get OSH moving up?
> Looking at the chart it has just been doing a whole lot of up and down for the last couple of months, with the range becoming tighter and tighter.
> I am interested in hearing all of your views.
> ...



Lots of resistance at $3.75. A brick wall even. Still, looks to be in an ascending triangle. Should break up. Could put this in potential breakout thread probably.


----------



## The Mint Man (9 May 2007)

Thanks kennas, can always rely on you for a decent reply! However I think you meant $3.75 
I will let you do the honours of putting it in the potential breakout thread.

Cheers


----------



## Sean K (9 May 2007)

The Mint Man said:


> Thanks kennas, can always rely on you for a decent reply! However I think you meant $3.75
> I will let you do the honours of putting it in the potential breakout thread.
> 
> Cheers



LOL. What's on the agenda to push it through do you think? Oil through $70? positive PNG LNG news? Discovery in Yemen, Egypt, Iraq? Takeover by WPL, Excon, China? China seem to have their nose in and around PNG. Closeish to home for them??

I note in one of their last presentations the MD was going on about doubling company value by 2010. So, double the sp? OK  Not sure how he's going to do that without some significant discoveries in the Middle East or Nth Africa, as PNG is declining from 2010. Perhaps he means double to 2010, and then reduce?


----------



## The Mint Man (9 May 2007)

Well what a day for OSH, closed at $3.80 seems I was right on the money asking when this one would move.
They have alot on this year and I am confident that things will start to happen. Im holding to 2010, thats what I said from the start. I also said that I can see them doubling.... time will tell!


----------



## theasxgorilla (9 May 2007)

Yep, today's daily close is the highest in 9 months.  And on 2.5 times (approx) average daily volume and being the 3rd highest daily volume since October last year one can probably conclude that there was strong buying interest today.

The volume illustrates that it took quite a bit of _force_ to break through (out of) the significant support resistance zone of $3.70/.76.  But that level is extremely historically significant, so it figures that it would take a lot of buying to break free.

Trading above the 200-day SMA, but that MA is not yet flat or pointing up.  Not a deal breaker IMO, just an observation.

Let's see if we get a strong weekly close, outside the consolidiation zone, at the high of the bar, with further high volume.


----------



## Sean K (10 May 2007)

Looks like it's respecting $3.75 intraday, and I'm more positive that it's broken up from the ascending triangle. Volume looks good also.


----------



## The Mint Man (10 May 2007)

Closed strong again today at $3.88. Other oil companies on my watchlist hardly moved or even went backwards. Im really happy with OSH's performance over the last couple of days, and since I bought them for that matter! I got in when they were $3.25 so Ive made about 19% since then.
I think theres more to come


----------



## The Mint Man (14 May 2007)

Up over $3.90, I Think we might see $4.00 this week. If so that would be the first time its been there since Aug 06.... OSH has come a long way since then.


----------



## The Mint Man (18 May 2007)

Im not a techy but I would say that OSH has found a bit of support at $3.90 after surging above $3.90 last week up to a high of $3.98.
OSH has closed at $3.90 over the last 3 days and on monday it closed at $3.92.
So would I be right in saying it has found support?

Cheers


----------



## Sean K (30 May 2007)

The Mint Man said:


> Im not a techy but I would say that OSH has found a bit of support at $3.90 after surging above $3.90 last week up to a high of $3.98.
> OSH has closed at $3.90 over the last 3 days and on monday it closed at $3.92.
> So would I be right in saying it has found support?
> 
> Cheers



MM, I think support is still at $3.75 and it could still find it's way to there in the short term. This would also be in line with the most recent upward trend support line. 

Fat Profits put a buy on this last night at $3.88 ish. I've picked up some more based on the upward trend, and expected support at $3.75, plus the general bullishness of the energy sector.


----------



## The Mint Man (30 May 2007)

You have to stop scareing us like this Kennas.... I think your pic is meant to say 'support at $3.75'? not $2.75
I think those clown fish have gone to your head

Cheers


----------



## Sean K (30 May 2007)

The Mint Man said:


> You have to stop scareing us like this Kennas.... I think your pic is meant to say 'support at $3.75'? not $2.75
> I think those clown fish have gone to your head
> 
> Cheers



Good day to buy!  Will be interesting to see how overseas goes tonight on the China ripple. I expect that most will have some memory of Feb 28 when the general market shuddered because of a rumour. So, maybe not too much of a drama. So, perhaps at worst a good excuse for another short correction that we have to have. Perhaps our $3.75 support line will be breached but I think the short/medium term trend in O&G is still in tact and will continue for some time. I'll continue to buy this on weakness in the comming months, unless the world stops needing O&G.


----------



## The Mint Man (30 May 2007)

kennas said:


> I'll continue to buy this on weakness in the comming months, unless the world stops needing O&G.



Hmmmm, by my calculations you should be OK!.... I could be wrong but unlikely. I think the world needs oil and gas


----------



## The Mint Man (8 June 2007)

Well its no surprise that OSH is down over 2%, along with every other stock, on a day like today (90-100 points down currently).
However I think that we will see OSH bounce right back over $4.00 considering the POO is up 1.4% bringing it to $66.93. 
If the overseas markets do ok over night then I think OSH will have a good day on monday, In fact I think that today could be a good buying or top up opportunity for OSH.

Cheers


----------



## Sean K (8 June 2007)

The Mint Man said:


> Well its no surprise that OSH is down over 2%, along with every other stock, on a day like today (90-100 points down currently).
> However I think that we will see OSH bounce right back over $4.00 considering the POO is up 1.4% bringing it to $66.93.
> If the overseas markets do ok over night then I think OSH will have a good day on monday, In fact I think that today could be a good buying or top up opportunity for OSH.
> 
> Cheers



Could be, but depends on the overall market strength more than you anticipate I feel. Nothing is saved in a general sell off. If this is just a blip, then support looks to be around 3.90 ish on major horizontal support and a couple of dodgy ones. Based on that, could be buying op, or if it breaks down, aaaaahhhhhhh!


----------



## legs (11 June 2007)

Another chart that shows a nice squeeze in the bollinger bands and volume starting to pick up...RSI showing not overbought...not so much an upwards cross on the MACD but good enough for me...


----------



## It's Snake Pliskin (12 June 2007)

legs said:


> Another chart that shows a nice squeeze in the bollinger bands and volume starting to pick up...RSI showing not overbought...not so much an upwards cross on the MACD but good enough for me...





Legs,
Does this mean you are going to take an entry based n your squeeze and RSI which is still pointing down?


----------



## legs (12 June 2007)

It's Snake Pliskin said:


> Legs,
> Does this mean you are going to take an entry based n your squeeze and RSI which is still pointing down?




you better believe it.. I believe there is alot of upside on this stock and looks a good entry. I have been wrong lots of times but not more than right.


----------



## legs (13 June 2007)

Holding up well against a falling oil price..Is there something else going on or is it to do with the strong Technical Analysis of the stock...lol??


----------



## The Mint Man (14 June 2007)

Well looks like what I said in post #172 was right, Friday was a good buying opp.
Even though we had a couple of bad down days to start this week as well as oil being slightly down, OSH managed to go back up over $4.00 quite easily. Also today we currently stand 3.5% up @ $4.15... looking strong IMO ready to shoot for the moon again hey Kennas

Cheers


----------



## legs (14 June 2007)

The Mint Man said:


> Well looks like what I said in post #172 was right, Friday was a good buying opp.
> Even though we had a couple of bad down days to start this week as well as oil being slightly down, OSH managed to go back up over $4.00 quite easily. Also today we currently stand 3.5% up @ $4.15... looking strong IMO ready to shoot for the moon again hey Kennas
> 
> Cheers




Energy firms rose following an over $1 jump in London Brent crude LCON7 prices [ID:nSP79164].
http://au.biz.yahoo.com/070614/19/19x4e.html

maybe this is why too??


----------



## The Mint Man (14 June 2007)

legs said:


> Energy firms rose following an over $1 jump in London Brent crude LCON7 prices [ID:nSP79164].
> http://au.biz.yahoo.com/070614/19/19x4e.html
> 
> maybe this is why too??



Yes, probably has something to do with its strong rise in SP today but how do you explain it going from a low of $3.87 last week (8/6/07) to coming back over $4.00 yesterday in a falling market and POO? 
I think it shows the strength of OSH

Cheers


----------



## legs (14 June 2007)

The Mint Man said:


> Yes, probably has something to do with its strong rise in SP today but how do you explain it going from a low of $3.87 last week (8/6/07) to coming back over $4.00 yesterday in a falling market and POO?
> I think it shows the strength of OSH
> 
> Cheers




Just great T/A from some great readers of the market.lol..
tooo funny
but maybe right??
I did really think it was a great entry point. As said in my charts and I agreed totally with you.


----------



## theasxgorilla (15 June 2007)

$4.15/.16 is probably to be expected as a bit of a resistance zone.  In any case its nice to see OSH bucking the trend of general weakness on the XAO (for now).


----------



## The Mint Man (15 June 2007)

Another good day for OSH with yet another gap up, this time it was 1.5% on yesterday. Closing at $4.25.
Only a week ago you could have got in at $3.87, thats a 10% gain in 4 days(monday was a public holiday) not too shabby in anyones book I would imagine!
It will be interesting to see what the POO does over the weekend, if it goes up you have most likely missed the boat on this one. There should also be a couple of wells completed over the next few weeks too, good news on them is always welcome.
We are really not that far off its highs considering how quickly it has got to where it is today.

Would anyone care to speculate on where this could end up? TA provided of course to keep the mods happy

Cheers


----------



## theasxgorilla (15 June 2007)

$4.25 is another fairly logical resistance level and a fitting place for OSH to end the week.  Where will it go from here?  Lets say that its looking less and less like an Elliott wave-B with each passing day.  And as I've said before, no point letting a wave count get in the way of a perfectly good trade.


----------



## The Mint Man (18 June 2007)

theasxgorilla said:


> $4.25 is another fairly logical resistance level and a fitting place for OSH to end the week.  Where will it go from here?  Lets say that its looking less and less like an Elliott wave-B with each passing day.  And as I've said before, no point letting a wave count get in the way of a perfectly good trade.



Well gaped up again to $4.27 from support/resistance level $4.25.... Now sitting at $4.30!
Would $4.30 be considered a resistance level? Just looking at the chart it would appear so (see between Jun-Aug 2006). Feel free to post your thoughts.
*Resistance/support at $4.30*


First time I've done this, what do you recon?

Cheers


----------



## Sean K (18 June 2007)

The Mint Man said:


> Well gaped up again to $4.27 from support/resistance level $4.25.... Now sitting at $4.30!
> Would $4.30 be considered a resistance level? Just looking at the chart it would appear so (see between Jun-Aug 2006). Feel free to post your thoughts.
> *Resistance/support at $4.30*
> 
> ...



I thought around $4.25 was the resistance, but somewhere between there and $4.30 is about right. Gapping up over $4.25 was pretty positive IMO. Still, might drop back, it's had a pretty solid run the past few months. 

Your chart looks a little different to mine for some reason. This is a 3yr weekly. 

I'd expect support to be somewhere between $4.00 and $3.75 during any pullback now. Hard for me to pin down an exact level. Maybe $4.00 I suppose, and greater support at $3.75.


----------



## The Mint Man (9 July 2007)

Good to see OSH move up today... it has just been hovering around lately. I was starting to wonder what the G-O was!!! 
I mean we watched OSH hover, mean whlie POO went - $70.5, $71, $71.5 etc. and now its at $72.80
Do you think this is just a consolidation period for OSH? Good buying if you got in on Friday or even today IMO

Cheers


----------



## The Mint Man (16 July 2007)

The Mint Man said:


> Good to see OSH move up today... it has just been hovering around lately. I was starting to wonder what the G-O was!!!
> I mean we watched OSH hover, mean whlie POO went - $70.5, $71, $71.5 etc. and now its at $72.80
> Do you think this is just a consolidation period for OSH? Good buying if you got in on Friday or even today IMO
> 
> Cheers




Well POO is $73.89 and the situation is still the same as I mentioned above Its gone up another $1 since I last posted.... its almost $74 for crying out loud!

Anyone got a clue???


----------



## Sean K (16 July 2007)

The Mint Man said:


> Well POO is $73.89 and the situation is still the same as I mentioned above Its gone up another $1 since I last posted.... its almost $74 for crying out loud!
> 
> Anyone got a clue???



MM, I think there's many factors to consider. OSH has had a great run, and maybe future POO gains have been factored in. Chart wise, looks just like healthy consolidation to me. This is a long term baby. Nothing speccie about it and we shouldn't be expecting big % gains by the day. $4.10 looks to be forming great support which is all good. A break though $4.30 will release it for further steady gains. Hold on to your hat.


----------



## The Mint Man (16 July 2007)

I understand all that and thought much along the same lines.... just felt like having a rant

Cheers


----------



## Sean K (19 July 2007)

kennas said:


> $4.10 looks to be forming great support which is all good. A break though $4.30 will release it for further steady gains. Hold on to your hat.



Bumping it's head up against $4.30 MM. $4.10 was good. POO going gang busters is obviously a good thing but not sure how much is left to run. Getting up closer to $80 will be bad for everyone I think too, so maybe we should be happy with a POO around $75 and OSH having some drilling success, or earnings ++ acquisitions!


----------



## The Mint Man (19 July 2007)

Yeh, good day today up 3.5% (15c) to $4.35. Will be interesting to see what happens to end the week tomorrow, followed by the POO over the weekend.

Cheers


----------



## clowboy (24 July 2007)

On a fundemental lvl what does the AUD/USD fluctuation do to the profits of this company?

They are based in the us?  So I assume that the fluctuation does nothing to there earning capacity but when the profits are converted back to AUD it is worth less (than what it was with a lower AUD dollar).

Thanx


----------



## Bush Trader (24 July 2007)

Why no comments about the 5% fall today after Qtrly numbers?

I would be interested in your thoughts

was this a case of "buy the rumour sell the fact" as Kennas is so fond of stating.


I've held this puppy for a long, long time.


Cheers


BT


----------



## The Mint Man (24 July 2007)

Bush Trader said:


> Why no comments about the 5% fall today after Qtrly numbers?
> BT




I would like to hear other comments on this too.... But for me, it dosn't matter really, Im a long term holder on this one.

I dont think the numbers are that bad and I wouldnt be supprised to see it come back up a little tomorrow. You have to remember that they have had a great run lately, Im up around 30% in 8 months.

IMO it wont be long until its back up around the $4.30s, they are a strong company in a good position for growth.

Cheers


----------



## theasxgorilla (24 July 2007)

We should probably look for the tell-tale signs of _smart money_ accumulating on weakness.  If they don't appear we can only presume its a _dumb_ idea to still be in this one


----------



## explod (25 July 2007)

theasxgorilla said:


> We should probably look for the tell-tale signs of _smart money_ accumulating on weakness.  If they don't appear we can only presume its a _dumb_ idea to still be in this one




I think the smart money got in yesterday on the weakness.  There were some very large buys among the 23 million shares traded yesterday and every attempt to reach towards $4.00 was met with a wall of buying.  Again today on much lower volume, weakness is met with buying.   If there was uncertainty at all, selling would have re-commenced today below $4.00.

The old "buy on weakness, sell on fact" is created by above expectations.  The report of Oil Search yesterday was not as bad as interpreted and the missdelivery will be a positive reflection in the next quarter.   Yesterday was a great opportunity for me.     A contract to supply Japan with LPG will be the next major event and will make the current price a bargain indeed. IMHO


----------



## Bush Trader (25 July 2007)

This article releates to the broker reviews on OSH's numbers yesterday, it may be of interest

Cheers

BT


Oil Search Now A Reserves Story
Source: FN Arena News - July 25 2007 

By Chris Shaw

In production terms the quarterly result from Oil Search (OSH) contained little in the way of good news according to ABN Amro, as production guidance for the year has been cut by around 10%.

This has led to a flurry of earnings downgrades for the stock but not a single rating change, as Credit Suisse points out the company is now a reserve play rather than an earnings story given the potential development of an LNG project in Papua New Guinea to take advantage of the company’s more than one billion barrels of oil equivalent gas reserves.
Looking at the earnings adjustments, Credit Suisse has cut its earnings per share forecasts for FY07 by 15% to 19c and in FY098 by 6% to 18c, while ABN Amro’s estimates now stand at 21.5c and 16.3c respectively and JP Morgan’s at 15.2c and 15.5c.

This shows the market is now in line with management’s guidance of flat output through FY08, before an increase of around 10-15% in FY09. JP Morgan suggests this new guidance is disappointing but is really only a deferral of production rather than lost production, so it doesn’t change the fundamental story.

Credit Suisse remains cautious as it sees some risk to this uplift in output coming through, while suggesting any share price weakness resulting from the production report would offer an opportunity for investors to position themselves for the longer-term story.
It could be a while before the potential gas to LNG project partner Exxon appears to be suggesting materialises, so ABN Amro sees the stock as a 12-18 month re-rating story. It also notes exploration success in Egypt appears to offer some chance for the company to diversify its reserves, but again points out it will require investors to be patient in waiting for results to flow through into share price appreciation.

This appreciation could eventually be substantial as Credit Suisse estimates the LNG project could be worth as much as $1.00 per share over the longer-term. Macquarie also sees it as the main share price driver, which is enough for the broker to maintain its positive rating.

Overall the FNArena database shows the stock is rated as Buy six times, Hold twice and Reduce once, with an average price target of $4.61. This compares to the median price target according to Thomson One Analytics of $4.42.

With the market down heavily this morning shares in Oil Search are weaker and at $11.55am were trading 14c lower at $3.98.


----------



## The Mint Man (25 July 2007)

> JP Morgan suggests this new guidance is disappointing but is really only a deferral of production rather than lost production, so it doesn’t change the fundamental story.



Totally agree, this is why Im not too worried. Im long on this one, the plan was always to wait until 2010.



> This appreciation could eventually be substantial as Credit Suisse estimates the LNG project could be worth as much as $1.00 per share over the longer-term. Macquarie also sees it as the main share price driver, which is enough for the broker to maintain its positive rating.



Sounds good to me.

good info

Cheers


----------



## The Mint Man (10 August 2007)

Well at $3.41 its almost $1 off its high before the market started heading south.
Can anyone say over-reaction?

Cheers


----------



## The Mint Man (11 September 2007)

Just an observation on OSH guys. 
I think that this one has been flying under the radar lately, just going about its own way and not getting much attention either here or in the media.

Since the lows of the correction, which from memory seen OSH below $3.25, OSH has just been going up, bit by bit, slowly but surely, but not enough to show up on any day traders radar, thats for sure. 
However when you look at its small gains over each day up until now it adds up to around 15% profit. For anyone who got in around a month ago this is nothing to sneeze at.
Further more, over the last couple of days, when most stocks have been a bit off OSH has managed to add over 1.5%

Cheers


----------



## explod (11 September 2007)

The Mint Man said:


> Just an observation on OSH guys.
> I think that this one has been flying under the radar lately, just going about its own way and not getting much attention either here or in the media.
> 
> Since the lows of the correction, which from memory seen OSH below $3.25, OSH has just been going up, bit by bit, slowly but surely, but not enough to show up on any day traders radar, thats for sure.
> ...




They ought to have news on a deal to supply Japan with LPG from the large resevoir in NG any time soon which will give a fair lift IMHO


----------



## numbercruncher (17 September 2007)

erm ... whats going on ?

Must be good whatever it is 

@10.11 6m traded and 18pc up ..... Tempting to jump in ?


----------



## Junior (17 September 2007)

Anyone have any information?  OSH is currently on a 17% gain for the morning but with no news/announcements.


----------



## chops_a_must (17 September 2007)

BillNorman said:


> Anyone have any information?  OSH is currently on a 17% gain for the morning but with no news/announcements.




Yep.... I'm wondering what the hell is with that 20% gap up on a blue chip. Haven't seen anything like that before. Takeover rumour perhaps???


----------



## Sean K (17 September 2007)

chops_a_must said:


> Yep.... I'm wondering what the hell is with that 20% gap up on a blue chip. Haven't seen anything like that before. Takeover rumour perhaps???



Wouldn't be surprised if the Chinese are sniffing....I sold out when it broke down, so watching on the sidelines....Vely intelesting...


----------



## explod (17 September 2007)

chops_a_must said:


> Yep.... I'm wondering what the hell is with that 20% gap up on a blue chip. Haven't seen anything like that before. Takeover rumour perhaps???





Someone knew something Friday on the action then.  Strange that something is not coming through



.................................................................


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## Da Cat (17 September 2007)

Oil Search and Nexus both got some positive coverage on ABC's Inside Business on Sunday morning (talking mainly about their JVs with big players).  Nexus up a little this morning as well.  May explain the interest?
The page hasn't been updated this week yet, but here it is:
http://abc.net.au/insidebusiness/


----------



## blues (17 September 2007)

Rumour of possible bid from CNPC this morning probably explains the jump in share price.....

Cheers.


----------



## redandgreen (17 September 2007)

blues said:


> Rumour of possible bid from CNPC this morning probably explains the jump in share price.....
> 
> Cheers.




just head confirmation of said rumour on ABC radio.

nothing confirmed though.....probably worth a punt


----------



## The Mint Man (17 September 2007)

very good news. have to see what happens. But Ill be sticking to my original plan, that being hold OSH until 2010. 
Heres the OSH ann:


> *TAKEOVER SPECULATION​*17 September 2007
> 
> Following speculation in a recent article in the South China Morning Post,
> Oil Search would like to confirm that it has not received any formal
> ...


----------



## mime (17 September 2007)

Damn I sold this one at $4.2 or so a while ago. Let's see what happens in the future. Any idea if this speculation will flow onto other energy stocks?


----------



## The Mint Man (17 September 2007)

If you sold at $4.20 then you did so before the last correction which saw it at around $3.25 by the end of it..... I would have bought back in once it started going back up 

EDIT: I would say OSH will make Lateline Business tonight. Will also be interesting to see what the AFR has to say tomorrow... Maybe someone could post it up


----------



## The Mint Man (18 September 2007)

Hey guys,
If you missed Lateline Business last night then you will want to watch it here http://www.abc.net.au/reslib/200709/r184144_683326.asx
OSH was the lead story, first up and got quite a wrap... very good exposure I think I will be holding on for the ride somehow
Just so you know, the link above is for broadband, windows media player.

If your not the video type though I have supplied the transcript below



> *Shares in Oil Search surge*​
> Australian Broadcasting Corporation
> Broadcast: 17/09/2007
> Reporter: Neal Woolrich
> ...




So what are your thoughts on this one people???

Cheers


----------



## mime (18 September 2007)

OSH as a PE ratio of around 60 right now. That's very high. I'm guessing they have large reserves to get this kind of interest. I'm hoping they turn their attention to BPT.


----------



## The Mint Man (21 September 2007)

mime said:


> OSH as a PE ratio of around 60 right now. That's very high. I'm guessing they have large reserves to get this kind of interest. I'm hoping they turn their attention to BPT.



China wants it, OSH got it... simple as that.

On another note, OSH is currently $4.46. Hasnt been this high for quite a while (may 06?), its nearing its all time high.

Cheers


----------



## kerosam (24 September 2007)

ex div today. where to next? i thought OSH held up quite well... subjective i guess 

got in today at $4.29... with POO still going strong, i'm hoping for another run to above $4.40.

:


----------



## It's Snake Pliskin (24 September 2007)

That gap that hasn't been filled seems like a giant gravity machine Will it draw the price in? 

I don't doubt the longer term story, but I would love to see the gap close up. I hate gappy charts. My bias.


----------



## Trader Paul (21 October 2007)

Hi folks,

OSH ..... figure this one should break out, about
midweek and finish strongly ..... 

..... and the OSH chart:

OSH  to gap-up again soon ... 

This will be the intermediate gap, so even after that, there should be 
yet another exhaustion gap, before it pulls bake to test support ..... 

happy days

paul


----------



## The Mint Man (23 October 2007)

Well OSH is looking good ATM, with the quarterly report just out.
talks with the new government in PNG seem to be going well. Exploration is on track although Yemen was a little disapointing. Costs are expected to increase next quarter, however this is a given with the AUD and the forward plan for activity over the next few months.
OSH has performed very well over the last year or so, besides the market correction that is, which it has more than made up
Anyway I'll stop rambling, below is the Highlights from the Ann today, you will need to find it on ASX or your brokers site to view the whole thing.



> *O I L S E A R C H L I M I T E D​*(Incorporated in Papua New Guinea)​
> *REPORT TO THE AUSTRALIAN STOCK EXCHANGE
> Activities for the Quarter Ended 30 September 2007​*23 October 2007
> 
> ...




Heres a snip from the Managing Director, Peter Botten.



> Oil Search’s 2007 third quarter production was 4% higher than in the second
> quarter. During the period, a solid production performance was seen at all our
> mature PNG fields, a good achievement given that this was realised without any development drilling, demonstrating the success of our day to day production optimisation activities.
> Oil Search’s realised oil prices rose once again during the quarter, and averaged a new record for the Company of US$77.28 per barrel, despite a fall in the Tapis:WTI premium. As a result of continued buoyant oil prices, total operating revenue for the first nine months of the year was US$489 million, 5% higher than in the corresponding period of 2006, even though total liftings were 1% lower.




Cheers


----------



## The Mint Man (9 November 2007)

Anyone else watching OSH? Up another 5%.
Closed at $4.63 today with a high of $4.66. That would have to be close to, if not an all time high I think.
See pic:



I know that POO is high but the price has droped off over the last couple of days.
Also OSH has a few drills that will be reaching TD over the next couple of weeks, both gas and oil.

Cheers


----------



## The Mint Man (15 November 2007)

OSH up another 5% this morning hitting a new high (yet again) of $4.76. 
Could anyone else tell me where they see OSH going to next? 
Not too far off the $5.00 mark now and with its recent surge upwards due to takeover talk and the strong POO, I personally think that it can get there and beyond.
OSH also have a few holes that I would imagine will reach their targets soon so santa might just put a few extra bucks in our pockets yet.

Cheers


----------



## The Mint Man (21 November 2007)

Yet another cracking day for OSH on the back of POO, up 4.5% to $4.80.
I'm very happy with the way this stock has performed over the last year or so since I bought them, they are up 47% since then!!!
I wouldn't be surprised if they were to hit the $5 mark soon.
Anyone care to put their  in to maybe balance my bias out then again who can blame me for being bias, OSH has been a strong performer.

Anyway I would be interested in others views on this one both good and bad.

Cheers


----------



## The Mint Man (5 December 2007)

OSH finished up @ $4.72 on a day where our market is down 22 points, oil is down to $88 and other companies like WPL are down. I would have expected OSH to follow, however it went up 2.6%. Quite against the trend!

*Anyone have any idea why OSH had a fairly good day considering the above?*

One would imagine that oil will end up heading north again and if this starts tomorrow then todays movements has given OSH a good leg up.

Your thoughts would be much appreciated.

Cheers


----------



## coolcricket (5 December 2007)

Hi The Mint Man,
 I have a few Oil Search shares. I was pleasantly suprised by the upward move today. It has been jumping around a little bit in recent times. Should be interesting to see how the OPEC meeting affects OSH. Fingers crossed for no increase in oil supply (I think I am right in pressuming this last bit, relativly new to investing).

But to the point, I would also be interested in other's opinions as to why OSH had the positive move today...


----------



## ithatheekret (6 December 2007)

I think OSH is one of the better plays for oil since they took up the Chevron capacity over there . I bet STO board is kicking itself for not notching up the last bid , when they demanded $2 .I sold the last time it hit $4.00 even , but haven't taken my eyes off it . It is still a predators dream , but they always want it at a discount and claim to be paying a market premium .


----------



## The Mint Man (13 December 2007)

Another good day for OSH on the back of a strong rise in POO over night. Hit $4.87 today which made it exactly 50% gain for me in a little over a year not bad

$5.00 here we come

Cheers


----------



## The Mint Man (24 December 2007)

Well just like the last correction we had a little while back, which saw OSH drop to $3.20 and then back up to $4.40 in a month , OSH is doing it again today, coming back hard that is!!!
Having a fantastic run today, currently up over 5.5%. Surely this can't simply be because of a 2% rise in POO over the weekend. 
Look at other similar stocks in the sector and see how they are doing today - WPL up 1.89%, STO up 1.55%...etc. OSH is way ahead ATM.

I think the takeover talk is still ringing in investors ears China wants it and guess who's got it

Your thoughts guys???

Cheers


----------



## The Mint Man (24 December 2007)

To back up what I'm saying just check out these charts I prepared earlier The RED line I have inserted into the charts is where these stocks are currently sitting. And as you will see OSH has been coming back strong, not just this time either!!!





If anything this post may be pointing out a good buying opp for the other 2 stocks.

By the way OSH is up to 6% since I last posted

EDIT: some big orders droping in too, check out the 2 buys at $4.78



Cheers


----------



## xabialonso (28 May 2008)

Did everybody cash in their profits and stop following this share? 

A pull back today after some serious gains - is anyone still on this train and do they share my sentiments that this pull back today is an anomaly and the trend is still very much upwards?

X.


----------



## urbanmike (1 June 2008)

xabialonso said:


> Did everybody cash in their profits and stop following this share?
> 
> A pull back today after some serious gains - is anyone still on this train and do they share my sentiments that this pull back today is an anomaly and the trend is still very much upwards?
> 
> X.




Absolutely I feel there is still a fair way up for this stock. When oil price heads over $135 there will be a new push up.


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## Sean K (15 October 2008)

I've been out of this one for some time after been a long time holder since 2004 ish. It's back on the close watch list once the dust settles on the economies and oil demand looks more favourable. 

Some others seem to have it on the watch list, or have quite a stake and need to ramp it.

0909 [Dow Jones] STOCK CALL: Oil Search (OSH.AU) price target raised to A$9.09 from A$7.09 by Merrill Lynch following analysis of uncommercialized Papua New Guinea gas reserves. Notes company's low-risk tangible assets, visible near-term price catalysts, strong balance sheet, compelling valuation. Says shares have potential to be re-rated by as much as 100% when AGL (AGK.AU) makes announcement about sale of stake in PNG LNG project, expected in next two-to-four weeks. Adds, cannot rule out possibility Oil Search may be a takeover target. "Under a bid scenario, we believe that OSH shares could be worth north of A$13.80," Merrill says. OSH last at A$3.82. (RRK)


Perhaps $3.00 ish will hold....


----------



## jackson8 (30 October 2008)

have notice agk have announced sale of png assets .

both osh and sto have jumped up over 10 percent in early trade. 

any ideas as to who may be the successfull bidder and what affect it will have on osh if it was not them.


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## AnDy62 (11 November 2008)

Sorry a bit late, but have a look at:

http://www.fnarena.com/index2.cfm?type=dsp_newsitem&n=504A1169-1871-E587-E18621547A5978A3

Disclosure: I hold OSH.


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## Sean K (17 November 2008)

Another very positive report for OSH.

Merrills upgrades Oil Search 
November 13, 2008 
Article from:  The Australian 

MERRILL Lynch has gone against the trend and upgraded the price target of a resources stock.

A recent site visit to Oil Search’s PNG operations left a big impression on analyst Mark Hume, who sent out a report titled “A $US20bn Company In The Making” that said the PNG LNG project looks firmly on track. 

Merrills boosted Oil Search’s price target from $9.09 to $9.65, which is better than it looks on the surface given what plummeting oil price assumptions would have done to valuations. 

Oil Search was recently trading at $4.76, giving it a market value of $5.3 billion, meaning Merrills thinks there’s a lot more upside to come beyond $9.65 as the LNG project ramps up.


----------



## jackson8 (17 November 2008)

kennas said:


> Another very positive report for OSH.
> 
> Merrills upgrades Oil Search
> November 13, 2008
> ...




do you feel a capital raising comeing on 
the price of oil is very low and who knows how much further it will go


----------



## Sean K (17 November 2008)

jackson8 said:


> do you feel a capital raising comeing on
> the price of oil is very low and who knows how much further it will go



Need to check there balance sheet and last anns to get the answer jackson.

This one just recently:

SIGNING OF NEW FIVE YEAR CREDIT FACILITY
23 October 2008

Oil Search is pleased to announce that its wholly owned subsidiary, Oil Search (PNG) Ltd, has today signed documentation with a banking syndicate comprising 16 banks for a US$435 million five year revolving credit facility, secured against cash flows from the Company’s PNG oil assets.

The pricing and other key terms offered on the new facility represent an improvement on the Company’s previous facility, with almost half of the facility amount provided without recourse to political risk insurance. The facility will be used primarily to support Oil Search’s equity funding for PNG LNG Project development costs.

Commenting on the new facility, Oil Search’s Managing Director Peter Botten said:

“We are delighted to have completed this transaction in the current difficult financial environment. The terms offered and the strength of the banking syndicate, which includes all four major domestic as well as international banks, highlights the attractiveness of PNG as a place to invest and demonstrates our good banking relationships, which have been built up over the last 15 years. I would like to thank the banks for their continued support.

Despite the recent upheaval in world financial markets, there was no revision during the documentation phase to the pricing accepted at the time of syndication. In addition, the facility of US$435 million is higher than the original commitment sought of US$400 million, due to strong participation from the banking community. Together with our already strong balance sheet, this places Oil Search in an excellent position to fund its share of PNG LNG Project capital costs.”

Peter Botten, CBE
Managing Director
OIL SEARCH LIMITED


----------



## Shrewd Crude (17 November 2008)

kennas,
this PNG LNG is going to be incredibly big world class project and all the big boys are involved... Oil Search are calling it a legacy project.... PNG LNG is going to triple current OSH revenues, but production is still 5 years off....
theres a couple of small oilers around with big leverage in this project, like MOS, CUE, HZN has a project going into production next year...
OSH seem to be stepping it up a gear...
This will perform over a 5 year period, my favourite large tiered ASX oil stock...
abit of soverign risk, but all will be ok because this project is set to double GDP for PNG...

.^sc


----------



## jackson8 (18 November 2008)

i think it would be wise to say that nothing is written in concrete
when i look at some of the once were darlings such as aed and nxs it makes me realise that a fall from grace can happen very quickly , all it takes is one peice of bad news and not necessarily bad but unnerving for investors to flee in droves especially with present market conditions

i currently do hold some osh but what worries me are a few factors
1) the price of oil . what would be their bottom line before production costs are greater than returns.
2) declineing oilfeilds they hope to start lng production to pick up from the tail end of these and if production is delayed which lets face it happens all the time then cash flow  could be affected
3) just the time period for this 5 years out , a lot can happen over that time frame

osh has seen a rapid growth in sp over last few years and i wonder if it is justified to continue that growth in the short to medium term given current circumstances

i dont want to be thought of as downramping but the share market can be very unforgiving at times


----------



## Sean K (18 November 2008)

jackson8 said:


> i think it would be wise to say that nothing is written in concrete when i look at some of the once were darlings such as aed and nxs it makes me realise that a fall from grace can happen very quickly , all it takes is one peice of bad news and not necessarily bad but unnerving for investors to flee in droves especially with present market conditions
> 
> i currently do hold some osh but what worries me are a few factors
> 1) the price of oil . what would be their bottom line before production costs are greater than returns.
> ...



Some good points there jackson.

And saying negative things about a stock with some analysis is quite welcome here. 

I first bought this about 80c in 2003 and it was a handy return over time, so I have some emotional baggage with the stock. 

I've been keeping my eye closely on it for a reentry, and I reckon it's close to as good an opportunity as any considering the potential growth profile.

Couldn't rule out a takeover could you? Maybe the PNG holding counts that out...

Nice summary from their last presentation...

**Oil Search has delivered sustained top quartile growth
over past five years (53% annualised return)
**Delivery of PNG LNG Project over next four years,
together with progressive development of 2nd and 3rd tier
gas, has potential to multiply Company value over this
period
**PNG LNG – The Premier AsiaPac LNG Project:
**(On track to deliver FID towards end 2009, with first LNG in
late 2013/early 2014
**Thirty+ year legacy project, with capacity to triple OSH
production. Also positively impacts oil field life, value and
reserves
**Current share price discounts assessed PNG LNG value
and reflects no value for further gas developments or
exploration


----------



## jackson8 (18 November 2008)

hi kennas

have also been watching them since about 2000- 2002 
almost bought into them at around 50c back then with intentions to write calls over them .........wish i had    as like you say would have made a pretty good return

have just bought into them two months ago with same intentions and would like to pick up a few more ........only thing holding me off from buying is just all the uncertanty in the markets just now . crude is down again today and need a cystal ball to know what the future holds

dow sitting on a cliffs edge so may wait to see what the next few days have in store for us


----------



## Shrewd Crude (19 November 2008)

> jackson-
> 
> i think it would be wise to say that nothing is written in concrete
> when i look at some of the once were darlings such as aed and nxs it makes me realise that a fall from grace can happen very quickly , all it takes is one peice of bad news and not necessarily bad but unnerving for investors to flee in droves especially with present market conditions
> ...




jackson,
final investment decision for PNG LNG is for later in 2009...
OSH have given every indication to the market that they will proceed... they have been selling African assets to fund their share of development costs...
I guess its just the slow steady derisking of this 'legacy' asset over time as production gets closer and closer...OSH is already bouncing off lows quickly...
they are proactive...
You cant even compare OSH to AED or NXS...
AED's problems were company specific (technical problems) that management did not know how to fix... OSH could have fixed it...
Oil Search are leaders for a reason... I have no doubt in my mind that this will progress smoothly...
When this takes off OSH will be trading around $20 bucks per share, based on tripled revenue estimates...
yeah there are some risks, as I said soverign risk is probably the biggest risk... but the expected return far outweighs the risks, so this is good risk return investment... my favourite big capped stock, and I dont usually like big capped stocks...

.^sc


----------



## jackson8 (19 November 2008)

Shrewd Crude said:


> jackson,
> final investment decision for PNG LNG is for later in 2009...
> OSH have given every indication to the market that they will proceed... they have been selling African assets to fund their share of development costs...
> I guess its just the slow steady derisking of this 'legacy' asset over time as production gets closer and closer...OSH is already bouncing off lows quickly...
> ...




shrewd crude

have taken your comments on board ........having had my fingers and all my toes burnt through both aed and nxs am a bit apprehensive . ......like i have said i do hold small quantity and maybe this time of weekness in crude prices may be a good time to pick up a few more.


----------



## Shrewd Crude (19 November 2008)

Hey jackson,
AED was just not experienced enough to deal with a big problem when it came up...
I held AED from $1.34 to 5 bucks, and sold out to buy NWE which had a royalty over the field...I went 80% all in on it...
I moved on NWE in a big way, but sold out when production problems were looming... I got very lucky, because it is always hard to sell stocks trading at a big discount at that time...
AED with Sinopec definately has a shot at geting back some of its lost value...
At that time paying over one dollar for a company was the first step I ever made from moving away from spec oilers...
Over the last 5 years it really did not matter where you put your oil dollars... companies were blowing up for no reason...
now it gets tricky...
Over the next year or two we will really see which companies are standouts because performance will be harder to achieve... no doubt made harder by falling oil prices...
ps:just some friendly advice--> always get out of an oil stock if there is material change to its projections... Or there is a shift away from the project you invested into it for...
good luck mate...hehehe is sounds so easy eah... this is a tricky sector...

.^sc


----------



## agathos (1 March 2009)

*Oil Search*

Hi everyone at ASF,

Greetings.
I have just looked through the STO thread and there was an interesting comment made by a fellow member about the share movement pattern of OSH and STO.

STO shot through the AUD$15 price and I thought if that is so, my shares in OSH (yes, I do hold OSH shares) would be up too if the similar share price pattern holds true.

YES! It does.

I have found out a few facts from their Annual 2008 Report, some points I would like to highlight here (please make your own decision to invest):

From my glean through of their Annual Report 2008, I gather:

1)	They claim that company is in the best economic position in 8 year history (introduction of the Performance Summary by Peter BOTTEN) 

2)	Record NPAT of UD$240 million dollars, 70% higher than 2007;

3)	*PNG LNG project progress *to final investment decision "Most robust greenfields projects in the region" – key decision in late 2009, first gas produced supposedly in 2013/2014. It seems there are good market fundamentals and there will be key market players ready to buy the products, particularly from Asia Pacific region. Most importantly, there is continuing support from PNG Government. 

4)	*Strong cash balance with USD535 million cash*. (Line of credit secured for US$435 at peak of financial crisis at good terms, demonstrating support for company). 

5)	Declare a final US$4 cents dividend per share, with a DRP program in place. 

There is currently a group liquidity of US$955 million at end of 2008

Check this out – they say in the Annual Report 2008 that there is *NO HEDGING in place in 2008*
NO hedging – this means that any further UPGROWTH in the price of oil (POO) will have a POSITIVE impact on OSH share price. 

As of end of 2008, 2P reserves was estimated @ *66.9 mmboe. *
In 2009, OSH target for 8 to 8.3 MMBOE. 


2009 budget will focus on:

a)	The need to ensure the LNG project gets the maximum $$$ it deserves
b)	A Balanced drilling approach to generate cash flow. 
c)	It's all about PRESERVING LIQUIDITY to ensure all exploration and development expenditure is funded from operating cash flow, to ensure the LNG project has $$$ towards viability 


Key things to look out for in 2009:

1) 2Q 2009: Sign HOA, BCA, 
1.1 2Q 2009: Commence early WORKS
1.2 2Q 2009: Contingent on BSA & HOA
1.3 3Q 2009: Receive EPC bids
1.4 3Q 2009: Finalize CAPEX

1.5 4Q 2009: Finalize Investment Decision 

Beyond 2009: 

1.6 2010 Commence Construction 
1.7 Year 2013: First LNG Sales. 

Just some informationto share with everyone. 

Have a great weekend and Happy Labor Day to everyone from Western OZ. 

agathos.


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## oldblue (1 March 2009)

*Re: Oil Search*

Yes, a lot of reasons to be optimistic about the medium/longer term outlook for OSH.

A couple of points though.
STO is still seen to be a possible takeover prospect since the shareholding cap was removed last November. I don't think OSH has this "quality" but who knows in future?
Being unhedged has its pluses and minuses, eg those such as BPT which have a proportion of production hedged are receiving much better than spot returns for that product at present.

Disc: Former holder of both OSH and STO, currently holding a few BPT.


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## basilio (2 March 2009)

Oil Search does look like the goods. The LNG plant in New Guinea is a huge company making project. Exxon as a partner ensures certainty of completion (IMO) and having the PNG government as a major partner also improves the prospects.

Energy supplies will be critical in the near future. Peak Oil is here and its only the immediate effects of the current recession/depression that is keeping prices low. Another couple of years of oil depletion in Mexico, Norway etc will see prices soar.

There is a potential for a takeover of OSH.  I think it would be a real mistake to allow this to happen because the long term value of the project to shareholders would, I believe, be far more profitable than a short term cash grab. (IMO) The chines would certainly be looking for such opportunities.

At the very least OSH is well priced at $5.00


----------



## eddyeagle (9 December 2009)

Saw this article today:


PNG LNG Greenlighted
December 09 2009 - Australasian Investment Review – (AIR) 


The $US15 billion ($A16.46 billion) liquefied natural gas (LNG) project in Papua New Guinea has been given the go-ahead, subject to finalising sales agreements and finance, both of which won't be a concern. 
The PNG LNG project is a joint venture led by a subsidiary of energy giant Exxon Mobil, with several partners, including Santos and Oil Search in Australia.


ExxonMobil will own 33.2%, Oil Search, 29%, the PNG Government 16.2% and Santos 13.2%. 

The project, which will produce 6.6 million tonnes a year of LNG from late 2013 or early 2014, will be the largest private investment in PNG and is expected to contribute more than $30 billion to the nation's economy over the life of the project.

The project will develop gas fields in PNG's Highlands and Western Province and transport the gas via pipeline to an LNG facility near Port Moresby for shipment to customers, mostly in Asia.

It's the 5th LNG project in the Australasian region to be given the OK, or to be in production.

The first was the North West Shelf in WA where the Woodside led group is examining plans to extend its life by another two decades, at a cost of $5 billion or more.

There's Pluto, the big project from Woodside, the huge $43 billion Gorgon deal and the Bayu-Undan producing project which has its LNG plant near Darwin.

As well, the news comes only three days after Chevron and Tokyo Electric Power signed a heads of agreement on a huge LNG contract that could be worth $A90 billion for the Wheatstone project offshore the Pilbara coast in Western Australia.

Chevron said yesterday it expects to sign a further sales agreement with a major Korean buyer early in 2010.

Besides Oil Search and Santos Japan's Nippon Oil, the PNG government and a trustee to represent landowners affected by the project, are in the project that will be led by ExxonMobil.

A final investment decision was forecast to come by yesterday and it duly came in an announcement from an Exxon subsidiary called Exxon Highlands.



 "Exxon Mobil Corporation announced today that the co-venturers have agreed to proceed with the development of the Papua New Guinea (PNG) liquefied natural gas (LNG) project, pending completion of sales and purchase agreements with LNG buyers and finalization of financing arrangements with lenders.
"At a ceremony at the PNG National Parliament House in Port Moresby, Peter Graham, managing director of Esso Highlands Limited, an ExxonMobil subsidiary, announced that pending completion of these sales and financing arrangements, significant project activity will commence in 2010. Esso Highlands is the operator of the project.

“With global demand for LNG forecast to nearly triple by 2030, the PNG LNG Project will be an important supply source to meet this future demand, particularly for the economies in the fast growing Asia Pacific region,” said Neil Duffin, president of ExxonMobil Development Company.

“The supply of cleaner-burning natural gas will also be critical in helping reduce global emissions.

"The co-venturer approval of the PNG LNG Project is a significant milestone.

"We look forward to applying our world-class execution capabilities and continuing to work together cooperatively with the PNG government to bring this resource to production.”

Oil Search CEO, Peter Botten said in a statement that the decision to move ahead with the PNG LNG Project will "transform Oil Search into a major participant in a world scale Liquefied Natural Gas (LNG) project.

"PNG LNG represents a long term legacy project which will add over 19 million barrels of oil equivalent to our annual production and result in approximately a nine-fold increase in our booked oil and gas reserves.

"The impact on PNG is no less significant.

"The development of this Project represents an opportunity to fundamentally change the outlook of the PNG economy and its people. When the Project commences production, the country’s Gross Domestic Product will more than double and export revenues will triple."

He said significant project activity is scheduled to commence in 2010, with the award of key Execution, Procurement and Construction contracts due to be announced shortly.

"While there will no doubt be many challenges, the PNG LNG partners are fully aligned on bringing this Project into production in late 2013/early 2014, with continued strong support from the PNG Government."

Buyers of gas from the project already are Japan's Tokyo Electric Power and Osaka Gas, Taiwan's CPC Corp and China's Sinopec Corp.


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## Party Marty (8 February 2011)

Does anyone have any thoughts on how much lower this stock will go?


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## LouisCo1 (8 February 2011)

Getting a tad tired of waiting myself...

I know there was some drama in PNG with the LNG project, where work has been stopped on some projects. But as far as I know it
- wasn't crucial
- has not escalated
- is nothing exceptional as far as PNG politics are concerned. OSH has been dealing with this sort of thing for years. Maybe Exxon should make more use of OSH local know-how.


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## Party Marty (8 February 2011)

I'm getting close to my stop loss - considering selling before I reach it. Selling now will leave me with a 5% profit.


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## LouisCo1 (10 February 2011)

Party Marty said:


> I'm getting close to my stop loss - considering selling before I reach it. Selling now will leave me with a 5% profit.




 Trust you did not sell out? Seems to be heading in the right direction again!


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## pixel (20 July 2012)

Party Marty said:


> I'm getting close to my stop loss - considering selling before I reach it. Selling now will leave me with a 5% profit.




I hope you didn't sell too early and/or remembered to buy back at the Low(s).





I find it always amazing to see, how little is said about large-cap stocks that offer reliable swings, whereas tiddlers get all the attention on share Forums...
OSH suffered the latest sell-off into EOFY, but has since turned the corner and broken back into the rising channel - albeit only just.




I saw value at around $6.50 and started to accumulate along the new trend.
Current stop Close Below $6.65.


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## polpak (30 April 2014)

Looks like more interest in OSH at moment. 

SPP requires money be paid to be on the SPP books before close of business Fri, 9 May, 2014.


IF taking the SIP up and using BPay best to pay before close Thursday - if not before,  or risk miss out being late.


Expect all bids satisfied rather than reduced take up, mainly as big "professional" holders had their chance, this SPP limited offer enables smaller % holders to increase perhaps maintain smaller % holdings.


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## greggles (19 June 2018)

Oil Search 12 month chart compared with the Amex Oil Index (XOI) during the same period. Reasonably close correlation.


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## rnr (7 October 2018)

Looks as though it's setting up to break out closer to the ATH!


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## sptrawler (6 April 2020)

Oil search, struggling with current oil prices, $1bn capital raising?
Now that is serious money.
Current price $2.73


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## rederob (6 April 2020)

Oil Search’s cash flow break-even for 2020 (comprising operating and core corporate costs, sustaining capex, cash interest expense and scheduled PNG LNG debt repayments) is currently in the range of US$32-33 per barrel of oil equivalent (boe). 
The cost reduction initiatives planned for the remainder of 2020 are roughly in the order of $300m, so are expected to lower the break-even (excluding the impact of one-off restructuring costs which as yet are unquantified).


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## xen88 (2 May 2020)

Is oil search a buy at the moment? Will it rise in the future?


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## The Triangle (3 May 2020)

xen88 said:


> Is oil search a buy at the moment? Will it rise in the future?



Who knows!  It's a worth doing research on at the moment.

Oil search average realized price for oil was about $63 US.  Production for this year is going to be about the same as last year (25-30mmboe).  Debt is around 3.5 billion.  Dividend 200 million.    Throw in a workforce that is hardly going to be happy (pay cuts, redundancy, cancelled projects and capex), low oil demand, corona virus, and I'm personally happy to sit on the sideline - especially at a valuation of $2.83 a share.    Cap rise was absolutely needed.


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## Trav. (3 May 2020)

I thought that I would throw up a chart as well, if OSH can break $3.15 then it might be worth looking 

BUT with approximately 38 million new shares being issued next week @ $2.10 I can't see it attempting to break out in the near future as a few would be looking at making a quick buck.


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## Trav. (10 May 2020)

Just coming back to this thread now that the SPP has been completed and the SP has held up surprisingly well. 

Volumes traded have been reasonable ( nothing indicating any dumping during the week)

Closed @ 2.87 on Friday, so still travelling sideways. Above chart showing resistance @ 3.15 still valid.

not held


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## Trav. (22 May 2020)

Nice break out for OSH and seems to be holding above the $3.15 level which was tested on the 20/5


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## Trav. (21 January 2021)

OSH working towards filling gap from March which has taken some time, but maybe we have the green light to go for a run..

Holding


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## Gavin Atkinson (23 June 2021)

Am I reading this correctly?
Almost 3/4 of a billion in two transactions yesterday afternoon?


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## System (22 December 2021)

On December 20th, 2021, Oil Search Limited (OSH) was removed from the ASX's Official List in accordance with Listing Rule 17.11, following implementation of the scheme of arrangement between OSH and its shareholders in connection with the acquisition of all the issued capital in OSH by Santos Limited (STO).


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