# PDN - Paladin Energy



## tech/a

Another pullback opportunity(Missed by myself)


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## phoenixrising

*Re: PDN*

Tech/a,

Is there good intra-day softtware that you know of to pick up these moves?

Cheers.


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## tech/a

*Re: PDN*

I have Marketcast which is what Guppy uses.Its a bit pricey at $400 to purchase software and $180/mth.

Even so you still have to perform the scans.If your not in the office you cant do it.Ideally an auto scan at 1 hr intervals looking for stocks that have risen X% on Xvolume would be ideal.

I used to post the scans on REEF whenever I was at the office at scan time.
There wasnt much interest there as they dont play short term moves.

If interest is here Im happy to post the scan at say 10.30 SA time and say 2.30

Youll get.
% gain
Volume
Gap up %

From there you can check the charts (if you have intraday) Im happy to post the chart of most interest to myself.
But there are times Im not in the office so you could miss a few or they could be late by whatever.
If there is an interest then let me know.

Ill post one today and see what you think.

tech


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## doctorj

*Re: PDN*

That'd be fantastic.


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## GreatPig

*Re: PDN*

Finally, the breakout I've been waiting for.

May it live a long and prosperous life 

Cheers,
GP

[Disclaimer: I hold]


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## GreatPig

*Re: PDN*

After a bit of consolidation, up again. Currently at $1.41 as I write.

Cheers,
GP


[I hold]


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## chansw

*Re: PDN*

It closed at $1.78 today and has been go up quite a lot in the last few days. Anyone has any comment? Thank you.


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## GreatPig

*Re: PDN*

My only comment is    :bananasmi 

Cheers,
GP


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## GreatPig

*Re: PDN*

Seems to be forming another small triangle now. If I remember correctly, a top-side breakout would have a target of around $2.20 or so. If it fails, I'm outta there. 

Cheers,
GP


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## tech/a

*Re: PDN*

GP.

Havent been following this!! Glad to see your getting a great ride!!

Isnt this a great example of whats considered too late to get on.
After I posted the fact that I thought I'd missed it I promptly forgot about it and from there up 100%. 

Dont know that I'd be in such a rush to leave if in your position GP.


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## GreatPig

*Re: PDN*



			
				tech/a said:
			
		

> Dont know that I'd be in such a rush to leave if in your position GP.



I'm in no rush as long as it keeps going up. 

Since my gains on this one form a significant percentage of my total portfolio gain at the moment, I don't want to risk losing too much of it. I think it looks fairly solid at the moment though, and unlikely to do what Summit did and lose most of the recent gains in one or two days, so I'm prepared to give it a bit of lee-way.

Still, I think a significant drop down at this point wouldn't be a good sign.

Cheers,
GP


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## andrew_c2o

*Re: PDN*

I can see the RSI is now above 70, this could indicate it will drop? Unless you don't use RSI


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## GreatPig

*Re: PDN*

I think RSI is mainly useful in sideways-ranging stocks or moves against the main trend. For moves in the direction of the main trend, particularly a strong trend, I'd expect the RSI to be pretty high at times without considering the stock over-bought.

Just my opinion of course.

Cheers,
GP


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## tech/a

*Re: PDN*

Any momentum oscillator,RSI,Stochastic,Williams R should ONLY be used in the direction of the trend. So if bullish your looking for oversold------buy opportunities.To use an overbought signal as a sell would 9 times out of 10 find you selling prematurely.

However divergence should be veiwed with caution.
GP is correct in their use during times of ranging,but here correct time settings (Coinciding with the ranging cycles) work best.


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## GreatPig

*Re: PDN*



			
				tech/a said:
			
		

> Any momentum oscillator,RSI,Stochastic,Williams R should ONLY be used in the direction of the trend. So if bullish your looking for oversold------buy opportunities.



I think you're saying the same as what I meant 

To be oversold during an uptrend, the stock must have had a short-term fall, which is what I meant by RSI being useful against the direction of the main trend (ie. looking for the bottom of a short-term fall when the main trend is up).




> However divergence should be veiwed with caution.



In one of Daryl Guppy's recent newsletters, he mentioned that RSI divergence was a fairly reliable signal (for a change in price direction). Supposedly that was one of the main indicators he used to pick the market peak back in March and switch to short positions.

Cheers,
GP


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## tech/a

*Re: PDN*

Sorry


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## GreatPig

*Re: PDN*

I was a bit concerned about the end-of-day push down yesterday, and when it opened lower again this morning and broke through my $1.67 limit, I sold out.

Got $1.66, which I'm happy with. Current price is $1.58, although it has been down to $1.505 at some stage.

Cheers,
GP


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## GreatPig

*Re: PDN*

I jumped back on this one in mid-August for $1.68 and it's smokin' again!

Up 10%-11% today as I write, currently $2.45.

I don't know what they're doing right, but I'm certainly not complaining 

Cheers,
GP


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## Kauri

*Re: PDN*

May amount to nothing but a small triangle is forming.


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## keepitreal

*Re: PDN*

a triangle with a rising bottom is always good.. aswell as a powerful reversal 9 periods ago.

I think the previous bearish trend is over which is evident in both the weekly and daily chart.

macd has just crossed in the dailies

If volume continues to increase as well as the price going north of 2.05 i will consider buying the share.


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## keepitreal

*Re: PDN*

in my previous thread i meant the price going above 2:15.. not 2:05


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## Kauri

*Re: PDN*



			
				keepitreal said:
			
		

> in my previous thread i meant the price going above 2:15.. not 2:05




  I was on yesterday ( on anticipation of triangle break ) at $2.01 via cfd's @ 10%, out today at $2.20.. if it comes back to the $2.14 support and looks like moving up from it I _may_ take another bite.


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## keepitreal

*Re: PDN*

Kauri,  do you find CFD's much better than trading the actual stock?
i have got into CFD's yes but i'm think about it.


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## Kauri

*Re: PDN*



			
				keepitreal said:
			
		

> Kauri,  do you find CFD's much better than trading the actual stock?
> i have got into CFD's yes but i'm think about it.




   When CFD's are available in a stock that I am *very confident of * and I am looking to capture a quick, relatively small s/p movement I use them, both long and short, to lever a small gain into a larger one. I use* very * tight stops, watch it on an intra day chart, never get greedy, and rarely stay in overnight and never over weekends. Leverage can mean *massive* losses, especially in the current market. I don't mind a punt on the horses, but never on the stock market.


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## TheProphet

*Re: PDN*

Uranium up 6% this month.


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## Chief Wigam

*Re: PDN*

Prophet,
Would you be able to let me know where you got that stat from? I am following another stock (CMR) and would like to know.
Cheers.


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## Kauri

*Re: PDN*



			
				Chief Wigam said:
			
		

> Prophet,
> Would you be able to let me know where you got that stat from? I am following another stock (CMR) and would like to know.
> Cheers.




http://www.uxc.com/review/uxc_prices.html


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## Kauri

*Re: PDN*

PDN has, according to my charting, followed a parabola twice recently on breaking from a triangle.. ( chart in post 19 in this thread ).  It may be   shaping up to do it again.  Also, a slim possibilty, but she may use the triangle as a short term reversal along the lines of RSG.  ( I am biased as I have a small holding in my med. term portfolio picked up on 21 Oct on the strong bounce from med term trend line,as seen on chart in post 19 )


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## Meso1973

*Re: PDN*

missed out on the rise again....pooo....oh well - next time perhaps.

results of their recent resource drilling at Langer (about 12km worth of drilling) is supposed to be announced in 'early Nov', which might explain the rise in sp over past week or so........as it is expected that the results will increase the overall resource base......


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## keepitreal

*Re: PDN*

Whats the deal PDN, a good report comes out as well as uranium prices rising..  good technicals too but people are selling.. Is there something I'm missing or are people just selling the news?


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## tarnor

*Re: PDN*

An ann with a possible increase to thier U resource has been talked about for a while, with nice run up to ann....

just the usual sell on fact scenario i'd suspect.. seemed like a good ann though once its processed and short term profits are taken great chance it will head north stongly again.. imho

all guesses though


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## keepitreal

*Re: PDN*

there wasn't too much volume.. as long as it stays above the 212 mark it should be alright.

i got a good feeling about it still..   i got in at 222 on friday


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## GreatPig

*Re: PDN*

Got it wrong again, Dad 

Bought PDN a couple of days ago for $2.55. Yesterday it dropped 9.4% to $2.31. This morning it hovered around there for a while, going down a little then up a bit then down again, so I sold when they were $2.32, fearing they might fall further.

Right now they're $2.60 

A 9% loss in two days, when if I'd held them for another few hours I'd now be sitting on a 2% gain.

When there's only two possible ways something can go, why is there a 95% chance of picking the wrong direction? 

Cheers,
GP


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## michael_selway

*Re: PDN*



			
				GreatPig said:
			
		

> Got it wrong again, Dad
> 
> Bought PDN a couple of days ago for $2.55. Yesterday it dropped 9.4% to $2.31. This morning it hovered around there for a while, going down a little then up a bit then down again, so I sold when they were $2.32, fearing they might fall further.
> 
> Right now they're $2.60
> 
> A 9% loss in two days, when if I'd held them for another few hours I'd now be sitting on a 2% gain.
> 
> When there's only two possible ways something can go, why is there a 95% chance of picking the wrong direction?
> 
> Cheers,
> GP




hehe yeah happens all the time

btw it seems to have formed a double bottom PDN


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## Prospector

*Re: PDN*



			
				GreatPig said:
			
		

> Got it wrong again, Dad
> 
> Bought PDN a couple of days ago for $2.55. Yesterday it dropped 9.4% to $2.31. This morning it hovered around there for a while, going down a little then up a bit then down again, so I sold when they were $2.32, fearing they might fall further.
> 
> Right now they're $2.60
> 
> A 9% loss in two days, when if I'd held them for another few hours I'd now be sitting on a 2% gain.
> 
> 
> GP




I think you sold on a day when everything was going south!  Your initial assessment was good - PDN, after some recent dips to around $1.80, will surge.  You bought in on the surge up so that is OK.  Then on 1 day everything fell, so you panicked and sold!  That might have continued the next day too, and if it had, you correctly 'stopped your loss' so that would have been the right thing to do.  Except, during the night the US markets improved again on good financials, so instead of continuing the downward trend most stocks in the ASX rebounded and continue to do so today.

You need to isolate the general company trend (eg uranium company and uranium is now positive) from the general market trend.  If you are confident in the company you bought in to, then you have to try and ignore (to some extent) what the overall market is doing.  On days like Wednesday I dont look at the market at all or else I might have sold the lot!

(I should add I have held PDN from the time they were 11c and have watched it during the peaks and troughs and feel like I know it pretty well now!)


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## GreatPig

*Re: PDN - Paladin Resources*

Now a couple of days later, just to rub salt into the wound, they're around $2.90 

Heh... I know how to stop it. Perhaps I'll buy again... 

Cheers,
GP


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## michael_selway

*Re: PDN - Paladin Resources*



			
				GreatPig said:
			
		

> Now a couple of days later, just to rub salt into the wound, they're around $2.90
> 
> Heh... I know how to stop it. Perhaps I'll buy again...
> 
> Cheers,
> GP




hehe 

funny thing might be it may then drop back down to $2.50, then what do u do?


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## nizar

*Re: PDN - Paladin Resources*

i reckon pdn is a great stock 2 own for the long-term..

last week they released an announcement that they have a contract to supply a US company with uranium from Langer Heinrich...

these contracts will continue to flow no doubt btw now and september 2006, which is wen production starts and PDN will no longer be just an "explorer"...

the only thing abt PDN is that when it goes up, it goes up like 5% per day, but when it falls it really falls.. in october correction market fell about 7-8%, whilst PDN sp fell almost 40%..

so im kinda waiting for a correction, but u never know maybe PDN will be $4 by the time the market corrects and fall back to $2.90, which is where its at 2day....

GreatPig, if u wanna buy this one, hold on to it, in my opinion (from wat iv read about nuclear energy and also langer heinrich is the first new mine 2 open 4 a while and uranium demand will exceed supply at least until 2008)...itll b a winner in the long run..


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## Prospector

*Re: PDN - Paladin Resources*

Did you see how the sp FELL after the good announcement this afternoon - talk about instances of insider trading after its rises of the last few days :swear:


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## GreatPig

*Re: PDN - Paladin Resources*

<sigh> ... $3.35 now.

Talk about the fish that got away.

GP


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## Fab

*PDN rise seems unstoppable*

Can anyone explain me how a share like PDN can go from 0.20 cents to $4 in 2 years time and where will it stop.
Amazing rise. Obviously this is a very speculative share.


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## surelle

*Re: PDN - Paladin Resources*

check out the other thread on the board called "how to explain pdn's stellar run"


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## Prospector

*Re: PDN - Paladin Resources*



			
				surelle said:
			
		

> check out the other thread on the board called "how to explain pdn's stellar run"





 Fab started that post


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## Fab

*Re: PDN - Paladin Resources*

Prospector. I have got a similar story as the one that you wrote on poseidon. Just wondering if your aunty's name starts with a G


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## surelle

*Re: PDN - Paladin Resources*



			
				Prospector said:
			
		

> Fab started that post




that's my point...fab needs to check the original thread that he/she started..


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## Prospector

*Re: PDN - Paladin Resources*



			
				Fab said:
			
		

> Prospector. I have got a similar story as the one that you wrote on poseidon. Just wondering if your aunty's name starts with a G





Er,.......Maybe


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## nizar

*Re: PDN - Paladin Resources*

Just a thought: PDN on january 2003, was 1c, and now its $4.53...

Thats 450times... makes a "10-bagger" look very ordinary...

DOes any1 agree with me that perhaps 450-fold in 39 months is a world-record maybe ?
I wonder if anything even comes close..?

ALso, people now are taking about the next paladin, some suggestions have been EXT, AEX, OMC, and RPT.... clearly PDN is the benchmark now..

But how about before Paladin..? WHen people first saw paladin, did they think: "Maybe this is the next ------ ? " WHat was the benchmark back then ?


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## GreatPig

*Re: PDN - Paladin Resources*



			
				nizar said:
			
		

> PDN on january 2003, was 1c, and now its $4.53



Yeah, it would've been nice to drop $10K on PDN back then. It would be worth $4.5m by now.

GP


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## GreatPig

*Re: PDN - Paladin Resources*

Just touched $5 this morning, although currently back around $4.87 which is 7.5% up today.

Is there no stopping this beast?

GP


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## YOUNG_TRADER

*Re: PDN - Paladin Resources*

GreatPig,

  OMG I don't think there is any stopping it, 
It must be trading on some crazy P/E ratio,


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## GreatPig

*Re: PDN - Paladin Resources*

Since I'm away for a couple of weeks in a few days, I sold half my holding today. Depending on what it's looking like on Friday, I may sell down further or completely (I was holding a pretty big parcel before).

Cheers,
GP


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## GreatPig

*Re: PDN - Paladin Resources*

PDN surges up through $5 this morning. Currently $5.15 @ 5.5% up.

Cheers,
GP


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## GreatPig

*Re: PDN - Paladin Resources*

Sold out completely today, as I decided it would be too risky to hold while I'm away.

Sold some for $5.16, the rest for $5.10.

Hopefully it will be back around $4 when I get back and just starting to head up again 

(more likely up around $7 knowing my luck!)

Cheers,
GP


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## Jay-684

*Re: PDN - Paladin Resources*

anyone know why PDN has gone down so much today?

suppose with the recent run it had to correct some time soon


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## powerkoala

*Re: PDN - Paladin Resources*

Uranium sector starting sell off. Not only paladin, but most of uranium stocks down. Maybe it is a good time to restock?


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## nizar

*Re: PDN - Paladin Resources*



			
				Jay-684 said:
			
		

> anyone know why PDN has gone down so much today?
> 
> suppose with the recent run it had to correct some time soon




AGree, it was due for a correction, it started the year at about $2...

Actually in around mid-Feb, i remember seeing it around $2.78 - i was thinking wow good buying opportunity...

So yes due for a pull-back, OXR also had a breather today...

Powerkoala - Yes i think there is still some value (SAU, OMC) and great potential (OMC) but as always selectivity will be key...


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## GreatPig

*Re: PDN - Paladin Resources*

Looks like selling before I left might have been a good move after all  

GP
(Currently in Okayama, Japan)


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## RichKid

*Re: PDN - Paladin Resources*



			
				GreatPig said:
			
		

> Looks like selling before I left might have been a good move after all
> 
> GP
> (Currently in Okayama, Japan)




Can't stay away from ASF GP!!?? Yep, it is wavering a bit, hard to sustain these vertical climbs, only a matter of time imho but these runs do last longer than expected, just look at how it's been accelerating.  Hope the weather and the locals are treating you well (I'm sure they are).


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## Prospector

*Re: PDN - Paladin Resources*

Hmm, I sold yesterday because I thought things had become a little overheated at the moment.  Of course there was a last minute rally :swear:   But am hoping to get back in again soon.  I have traded PDN so much over the last 18 months or so - seemed like the right thing to do at the time.  I started in at 11c and bought a nice swag - obviously PDN was one of those shares that if I had held that parcel today, I would be very nice swathed in diamonds!  But it was a huge risk for me at the time, having only traded for a few months.


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## GreatPig

*Re: PDN - Paladin Resources*



			
				RichKid said:
			
		

> Can't stay away from ASF GP!!??



Well I don't have access to my charts at the moment, so I gotta look for comments on my stocks when I can 

And yes, Japan has been going well so far. A little rain yesterday in Hiroshima (fortunately not black!) but otherwise good, and a beautiful day today at Himeji Castle with all the blossom trees out in flower - and, being the start of their blossom festival, entry today was free! What more could a tourist ask for? 

I have to say though, after going through the atomic bomb museum yesterday, it does put a bit of a damper on one's enthusiasm for uranium.

Cheers,
GP


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## michael_selway

*Re: PDN - Paladin Resources*

*Paladin banks on Africa
Date : 02/04/2006
Reporter: Alan Kohler*

ALAN KOHLER: The hottest stock on the ASX at the moment is the uranium developer Paladin Resources, which is up five-fold since this time last year and 50-fold in a couple of years. Unlike the other prospectors that are going off like nuclear explosions on the sniff of an association with uranium, Paladin is unaffected by the ban on new mines in Australia, having left for the more favourable environment - for mining, that is - of Africa. I caught up with Paladin chief executive John Borshoff in Toronto this week during a investment roadshow.

Well, John Borshoff, you're now sitting on a company worth $2 billion, the main asset of which you bought for $15,000. How does that feel and how did it happen?

JOHN BORSHOFF, MANAGING DIRECTOR, PALADIN RESOURCES: It felt, even at the time when we bought it - I mean it was a major commercial decision because we only had about $50,000 in the bank. So we had to decide very carefully and even negotiate the price down somewhat so it could get into our affordability range. That just shows you how dead uranium was as late as 2002 and that nobody in the world was looking at uranium ever going through the sort of resurgence that it has. Now, looking in hindsight, I just feel, you know, that all that belief is being vindicated.

ALAN KOHLER: As you say, you've believed in uranium for a very long time. Did it ever waver? Did you ever think, "This is hopeless. It'll never happen"?

JOHN BORSHOFF: To tell you the truth, no. For a little while, we subsidised our effort by dabbling in the hi-tech boom, but we never gave up on our uranium assets. We maintained our capital base, we didn't have to restructure, and we sort of grew from that 0.8 of a cent, I think, to what we are today, all in a matter of - well, since November '03.

ALAN KOHLER: And has what has happened to Paladin exceeded your expectations?

JOHN BORSHOFF: When we were sitting at about $0.40, I made a prediction to my group that I thought in 4-5 years we would get to $1 billion and that seemed fantasy to my people. Whether it was $1 billion or $2 billion at that time, it was just, it was so absurdly high that everybody was saying, "Okay well, this guy is a bit silly anyway. "It's gone from $0.01 to $0.40". It's more the acceleration, I guess, that's taken so little time for the the swing to occur and it's essentially a rebound coming out of a 25-year stagnation.

ALAN KOHLER: Of course, what's happened to Paladin has spawned a lot of imitators and there's now a lot of hype around uranium in the market. What do you make of all the hype surrounding uranium now?

JOHN BORSHOFF: In 2002, or as late as early 2003, where there were not many people in in the uranium sector, then as prices started to move, as the other, other sort of metal - or the companies which were stagnating, they just essentially moved in on uranium both with legitimate reasons and opportunistic reasons and I think that when you marry that with the lack of general expertise in the world in uranium, a lot of it having died away in the 25-30 years, you have a situation where the ignorant are leading the blind in sort of a way - and I say that in terms of the market. I mean, anything that's put out in the market, everybody believes without discrimination, it appears.

ALAN KOHLER: Yeah, but are a lot of wild claims being made in the market now. What do you think of the claims?

JOHN BORSHOFF: Well, some of the claims are not based on what uranium pricing is today. Obviously, some of them must be on expectation that uranium will continue its climb and that maybe, you know, at significantly higher prices some of these deposits may come into economic sort of condition.

ALAN KOHLER: What do you personally think the uranium price is going to do over the next five years or so?

JOHN BORSHOFF: Oh, well, I believe that if you're looking at the uranium industry as it is now, and if your looking at the - commercial uranium has only been in existence for about 38 years and the nuclear electrification for that period and if you put that in a bracket looking over a 100-year period, you'll see that uranium at this stage only represents an embryonic part of what, I think, the nuclear industry will be in the future. So we're looking at a paradigm shift here and that paradigm shift has happened at the speed it's happened because the nuclear reactor utilities were working behind the scenes. It was an industry that nobody wanted to hear about. It just became more and more efficient, making electricity more cheaply and economically, and meanwhile, the supply industry was going the other way in terms of consolidation and going into a bunker of survival. So now you almost have a situation like that aircraft on an aircraft carrier where it's all sprung back ready to fire and you just let her go and it's just shooting upwards and onwards and I think that the price was $40 in 1978 - or $43 - now we're $42 in long term, and that $43 in 1978 represents about $106 today, and I see that there is room for significant increase in uranium pricing, and I believe -

ALAN KOHLER: To $100 again?

JOHN BORSHOFF: I think its not inconceivable. I think if the supply industry doesn't get its act together and really starts getting new mines on schedule over and above those which were known four years ago, I believe that there are supply squeezes up ahead, and those supply squeezes will be peaks over and above a rising trend in the price of uranium.

ALAN KOHLER: Is it ironic do you think that uranium is possibly that uranium is the only product in which Africa is a less risky place to look for it and mine it than Australia?

JOHN BORSHOFF: I think that's - you know people should really look in the mirror on this one. We made our decision in year 2000 that Australia, where we had two of our significant assets, posed a political risk for us and we had to diversify to that stable place called Africa and I think that the resource future in the sort of early 21st century belongs to Africa. Australia and Canada have become overly sophisticated. They measure progress in other aspects than economic development, and rightly so, but I think there has been a sort of overcompensation in terms of thinking about environmental issues, social issues, way beyond what is necessary to achieve good practice.

ALAN KOHLER: Do you believe that the restrictions on uranium mining in Australia will be lifted?

JOHN BORSHOFF: Undoubtedly. I think that you've got this remarkable thing happening between China and Australia and everybody thinks that this is just a China-Australia thing in the uranium industry. It's a global impact. It's a dynamic which is yet to fully impact in the global sense as the - that uranium that was earmarked from Australia to the western reactors. Part of that now conceivably can be seen moving north and that leaves a perception of a vacuum there to be filled in the mid- to long-term. I see that with China moving in - which is, by the way, it is the first time the old communist bloc, if you like, particularly in uranium, is engaging the western world. Russia hasn't done that yet.

ALAN KOHLER: And finally, you're due to commission your $15,000 mine in Namibia in September. That will be a red letter day, I guess?

JOHN BORSHOFF: Certainly will. It'll be the first new uranium mine that has been developed - the complete, conventional one - in 25 years and I think that is a very important occasion in the supply industry sort of catalogue, or will be, and I believe we'll be the only company that will complete a second mine before anybody else gets something on the drawing board.

ALAN KOHLER: I'll have to leave it there but thanks very much, John Borshoff.

JOHN BORSHOFF: Thank you.

http://www.abc.net.au/insidebusiness/content/2006/s1606504.htm
http://www.abc.net.au/reslib/200604/r79553_228683.asx


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## Fung

*Re: PDN - Paladin Resources*

Seems like the price are flowing up and down between $5.0 to $5.1, any opinions?

Seems it's bit overpriced now....


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## Fab

*Re: PDN - Paladin Resources*

Probably not such a bad thing


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## Fab

*Re: PDN - Paladin Resources*

Big profit taking on PDN today


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## Fung

*Re: PDN - Paladin Resources*



			
				Fab said:
			
		

> Big profit taking on PDN today




Big Profit????


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## Fab

*Re: PDN - Paladin Resources*

Yep. What I mean if you bought at $2 and sell at $4.50 you have double the money in less than 6 months. I am planning to buy more of this one soon as I believe their mine is going in prod sept06


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## michael_selway

*Re: PDN - Paladin Resources*



			
				Fab said:
			
		

> Yep. What I mean if you bought at $2 and sell at $4.50 you have double the money in less than 6 months. I am planning to buy more of this one soon as I believe their mine is going in prod sept06




Earnings and Dividends Forecast (cents per share) 
2005 2006 2007 2008 
EPS -0.6 -1.3 15.3 26.4 
DPS -- 0.0 0.0 -- 

it doesnt look too bad atm

thx

MS


----------



## Fab

*Re: PDN - Paladin Resources*

Wow PDN up 7% again today in a market that was heavily in the red. Where is PDN going to stop. Production is due in Sept 06, look out for this rising star, I believe it is not finished yet


----------



## Knobby22

*Re: PDN - Paladin Resources*

Being included on that international index would have helped.

I thought the company was unfairly treated in the recent downturn as it is really into energy not metals.


----------



## Prospector

*Re: PDN - Paladin Resources*

Glad it did fall for a while so I could top up at $3.90


----------



## Fab

*Re: PDN - Paladin Resources*

Yep topping up was definetely on the card for me when we had the downtrend but I did not have the money to do so


----------



## michael_selway

*Re: PDN - Paladin Resources*



			
				Knobby22 said:
			
		

> Being included on that international index would have helped.
> 
> I thought the company was unfairly treated in the recent downturn as it is really into energy not metals.




I think people knew that already, but today was the official addition day

http://www.asx.com.au/asxpdf/20060531/pdf/3wz41cbbjwffl.pdf

ZFX, WOR, PDN, ABS, GFF being added to the MCIS Index

Morgan Stanley Capital International Inc (MSCI) World Standard Index Series for Australia in the Energy Industry Group sector.

http://www.msci.com/pressreleases/archive/MSCI_May06_STPR.pdf

thx

MS


----------



## scsl

*Re: PDN - Paladin Resources*

PDN, as calculated* by _AFR Smart Investor_, was the best performing stock of the last decade. $1,000 invested in May 1996 would have turned into $56,977, a total average annual return of 50%! It also notes that $1,000 invested only five years ago would have returned $122,500!!   

Going forward, it believes PDN should continue outperforming in the next decade. Hargreave Hale is quoted with a target price of $5.73...

If you'd put $1,000 on the next best performer Hardman Resources, it would be worth $48,511. In third, Toll Holdings would be valued at $47,797. JBM, CPU, COH, SHL, PRK, UGL & CSL round up the top 10.

So...any one held PDN or any of these 10 since then?? Nice job!

On the other end of the scale, the worst performing stcks were BPC, MRE, PMP, WYL & ANN, with BPC's return on $1,000 equaling $444. That's -8% p.a. for the last 10 years!

Cheers

*Assuming dividends are reinvested


----------



## nizar

*Re: PDN - Paladin Resources*

Paladin paid dividends??

But i agree, top company, metals/gold going down, but uranium up and up

Production soon..


----------



## scsl

*Re: PDN - Paladin Resources*

Paladin has not paid dividends, but the top stocks calculation included reinvesting dividends where applicable.

nizar, where do you get your live uranium prices from? I get my gold and metals prices from both commsec and basemetals.com but haven't yet found quotes of the uranium price...

thx


----------



## nizar

*Re: PDN - Paladin Resources*

http://www.uxc.com/review/uxc_Prices.aspx


----------



## Fab

*Re: PDN - Paladin Resources*

It should be a good day today.


----------



## GreatPig

*Re: PDN - Paladin Resources*

Looks like we might have had a double bottom here, which pushed through the 50% Fib retracement level and is now building back up to the 38.2% level.

If completed, target upside is over $6 by my estimation. Needs to break through the downward channel it's been in for a while though.

Cheers,
GP


----------



## Fab

*Re: PDN - Paladin Resources*

Hopefully you are right. I am not going to sell PDN so for a while as they are planning to go to production in september and I believe this will push the price higher


----------



## chennyleeeee

*Re: PDN - Paladin Resources*

Fundamentally, I hope the production levels are as high as the market expects them to be. Or else  For a  1.8 billion dollar company, you'll be expecting something like 100 million dollars. *fingers crossed*

CHEN


----------



## kariba

*Re: PDN - Paladin Resources*

Uranium will be a HOT sector in the next 12 months! - Quality uranium stocks like PDN will be the backbone of my portfolio.

cheers


----------



## chennyleeeee

*Re: PDN - Paladin Resources*

Whats actually driving this market at the moment? Is it just investor interest or is there really something big going on? Is someone making bombs? Is China in need for more uranium? I hope it isnt another Poseidon at the top of everest.

CHEN


----------



## kariba

*Re: PDN - Paladin Resources*



			
				chennyleeeee said:
			
		

> Whats actually driving this market at the moment? Is it just investor interest or is there really something big going on? Is someone making bombs? Is China in need for more uranium? I hope it isnt another Poseidon at the top of everest.
> 
> CHEN




It's called "supply & demand" 

- Dozens of nuclear power stations being built over the next 5 years
- Dwindling supply of ex-weapon uranium
- lack of uranium eploration & developement over the last 20 yearsleading to low supply

Hence the continued increase in the price of Uranium. Uranium stocks have fallen along with other resource stocks in the recent correction. Many were over-priced, but many have now become outright bargains

Choose well & heaps of cash to be made .... DYOR

cheers


----------



## Hopeful

*Re: PDN - Paladin Resources*

PDN doesn't know whether it is Arthur or Marthar right now - similar story for the other resource stocks. It is like a coil spring being wound up and whe she lets go she will go up or down strongly. It has hot the 200-day EMA twice already, once more will be a Gann style triple banger with a higher probability of falling through.

Funny mentally this stock should fly in the coming years with China's nuclear power plant projects coming online.


----------



## Prospector

*Re: PDN - Paladin Resources*

Trading Halt now - add AUM to this and soon I wont have any shares left to trade


----------



## Sean K

*Re: PDN - Paladin Resources*

Perhaps they'll fight for RPT?


----------



## x2rider

*Re: PDN - Paladin Resources*

Hi Folks
 Shares in Pdn dropped over night with an announcement that they are going to buy VUL in OZ .  
 Threy are offering $174 m for it 
 I hate trading halts like that 
 Cheers Martin


----------



## Fab

*Re: PDN - Paladin Resources*

What do you mean they drop. They are still in trading halt as far as I am concerned


----------



## x2rider

*Re: PDN - Paladin Resources*

Hi there Fab 
 I read it on one of the news articles over night . And when I had read it , it had dropped about 5 % 
 Sorry about that. i  am holding as well . And nobody likes to start the day with bad news 
 Cheers Martin


----------



## Fab

*Re: PDN - Paladin Resources*

Thanks it looks like it bounced back since. I personally like PDN even if the PE is high. I also hold SEK which has a very high PE and everybody keeps on saying it is too high but both shares keep on raising.


----------



## dr00

*Re: PDN - Paladin Resources*

so what do we make of the recent news regarding valhalla and the court proceedings with summit? the market doesnt seem too worried...


----------



## GreatPig

*Re: PDN - Paladin Resources*

Don't know, but PDN seems to have shifted from a down-trending channel to an up-trending one now.

GP


----------



## Fab

*Re: PDN - Paladin Resources*

How do you translate these red and green sticks ??


----------



## Sean K

*Re: PDN - Paladin Resources*



			
				Fab said:
			
		

> How do you translate these red and green sticks ??




This is a good site Fab:

http://stockcharts.com/education/ChartAnalysis/candlesticks.html


----------



## stink

*Re: PDN - Paladin Resources*



			
				Fab said:
			
		

> How do you translate these red and green sticks ??




Trading Secrets by Louise Bedford

she's mad on the candles,very good explanations of them to!


----------



## Archinos

*Re: PDN - Paladin Resources*

I dunno kennas, your own 'circa' quote is pretty good


----------



## billhill

*Re: PDN - Paladin Resources*

Maybe people are starting to pile in on anticipation of the opening of the langer heinrich mine this september. I think its the first new uranium mine to open in a long while. Theres probably quite a bit of interest.

Billhill


----------



## Morgan

*Re: PDN - Paladin Resources*

Is anyone still bullish for PDN?
Looks like support forming around $4-15.
With the present media attention towards increasing future demand for uranium, surely PDN (as a more advanced uranium company) is well placed to take advantage of this?


----------



## billhill

*Re: PDN - Paladin Resources*

Morgan
          PDN is probably now become more of a long term play as the uranium hype stablizes. Your right though PDN is one of the best placed uranium companies. Uranium prices will continue to rise for the forseeable future and as PDN has other deposit outside australia it other than langer heinrich it has potential to develop more mines (something many uranium juniors do not have). There is not likely to be much sustained upward movement of the stock in the short term but i would still remain bullish about its prospects over the next couple of years.

billhill


----------



## MalteseBull

*Re: PDN - Paladin Resources*

Looks like the support level has been reached,
time to get onboard


----------



## Sean K

*Re: PDN - Paladin Resources*

$4.00 is support, also at 200d ma. Could bounce from here, but I reckon the chart says $4.00. Then $3.50.


----------



## MalteseBull

*Re: PDN - Paladin Resources*



			
				kennas said:
			
		

> $4.00 is support, also at 200d ma. Could bounce from here, but I reckon the chart says $4.00. Then $3.50.




don't worry about the chart, worry about the current price, which is 4.25 according to me..

hence the new support is no longer 4 but 4.15 imo


----------



## Sean K

*Re: PDN - Paladin Resources*



			
				MalteseBull said:
			
		

> don't worry about the chart, worry about the current price, which is 4.25 according to me..
> 
> hence the new support is no longer 4 but 4.15 imo




I hope so MB.

One small hop at $4.15 does't make a real solid support level IMO. Sure, it's a reference point on the chart and if it goes down to that level again and hops or bounces from there, then it's even better 'support'. 

UBS started coverage of this today with a Buy 2 and target $5.00.


----------



## scsl

*Re: PDN - Paladin Resources*

It's been a good day for PDN so far... up 5.3% to $4.37!

I'm anticipating a move towards $5 but have a feeling it could head towards $4.15 again before resuming up.


----------



## Freeballinginawetsuit

*Re: PDN - Paladin Resources*



			
				kennas said:
			
		

> I hope so MB.
> 
> One small hop at $4.15 does't make a real solid support level IMO. Sure, it's a reference point on the chart and if it goes down to that level again and hops or bounces from there, then it's even better 'support'.
> 
> UBS started coverage of this today with a Buy 2 and target $5.00.





Tend to agree with MB on this one Kennas.

PDN rebounded pretty quickly on the 2 occasions it hit $3.40ish, same day or next and hit the low on open and with comparitevly low volume. On those occasions it went quickly up to $3.70ish and traded around their finding support and trading until the next support at $4.30ish. Plus it reached a decent high ($5.30) this time around on decent volume's, so it would seem logical to assume that most of the traders should have taken some of their profit targets before this down spike.

Fundamentally PDN is moving forward with their mine and closer to opening, should give the stock a "Margin Lending" rating which might entice some more punters also. Once the mine is in production a few institution might be tempted also, considering the current prices of "U" and that PDN will now be a producer.

This fall it found some support at $4.60ish before quickly falling straight through the $4.30ish support and seemed to have bottomed at $4.15ish.

It didn't rebound of $4.15ish for a few days though and traded quite a large volume at this price also.

I got caught out, buying in on the $4.30 day thinking it was a low spike and a quick rebound might happen, but it didn't.

So here's hoping today is a rebound from $4.15 and it might gain a bit of momentum from here. Do agree with MB that hopefully $4.15 is a new support and not the old $3.90 SP price. Could also soften up over the next few days from the traders taking some quick profits. I'm hoping for an upward move in the SP or at least some support and volume in the mid $4 dollar range.


----------



## MalteseBull

*Re: PDN - Paladin Resources*

$5 here we come


----------



## Sean K

*Re: PDN - Paladin Resources*



			
				Freeballinginawetsuit said:
			
		

> Tend to agree with MB on this one Kennas.
> 
> PDN rebounded pretty quickly on the 2 occasions it hit $3.40ish, same day or next and hit the low on open and with comparitevly low volume. On those occasions it went quickly up to $3.70ish and traded around their finding support and trading until the next support at $4.30ish. Plus it reached a decent high ($5.30) this time around on decent volume's, so it would seem logical to assume that most of the traders should have taken some of their profit targets before this down spike.
> 
> Fundamentally PDN is moving forward with their mine and closer to opening, should give the stock a "Margin Lending" rating which might entice some more punters also. Once the mine is in production a few institution might be tempted also, considering the current prices of "U" and that PDN will now be a producer.
> 
> This fall it found some support at $4.60ish before quickly falling straight through the $4.30ish support and seemed to have bottomed at $4.15ish.
> 
> It didn't rebound of $4.15ish for a few days though and traded quite a large volume at this price also.
> 
> I got caught out, buying in on the $4.30 day thinking it was a low spike and a quick rebound might happen, but it didn't.
> 
> So here's hoping today is a rebound from $4.15 and it might gain a bit of momentum from here. Do agree with MB that hopefully $4.15 is a new support and not the old $3.90 SP price. Could also soften up over the next few days from the traders taking some quick profits. I'm hoping for an upward move in the SP or at least some support and volume in the mid $4 dollar range.




I agree with all your points and with U308 headed towards $100 (IMHO) then PDN is a great quality stock with enormous potential. 

I've posed another chart here just to show that the support levels I mentialed are there and your $4.15 is certainly in the range of support between $4.00 and $4.25. Anything negative in general commodoties could send it back to $3.50 IMO (still), although unlikely. 

Of note, even though it has climbed today, it's still chanelling down, therfore $4.00 is not out of the question short term. Of course, if it pokes it's head through that channel line tomorrow, then it might be on the way up again. My point is that on the chart, an upward trend is not yet confirmed. 

I don't hold this yet as I'm concentrating on more speccie U plays atm looking for blue sky. This is more like blue chip now! 

Perhaps I'll put my HDR winnings on this!

(sorry the chart is busy)

kennas


----------



## Freeballinginawetsuit

*Re: PDN - Paladin Resources*



			
				kennas said:
			
		

> I agree with all your points and with U308 headed towards $100 (IMHO) then PDN is a great quality stock with enormous potential.
> 
> I've posed another chart here just to show that the support levels I mentialed are there and your $4.15 is certainly in the range of support between $4.00 and $4.25. Anything negative in general commodoties could send it back to $3.50 IMO (still), although unlikely.
> 
> Of note, even though it has climbed today, it's still chanelling down, therfore $4.00 is not out of the question short term. Of course, if it pokes it's head through that channel line tomorrow, then it might be on the way up again. My point is that on the chart, an upward trend is not yet confirmed.
> 
> I don't hold this yet as I'm concentrating on more speccie U plays atm looking for blue sky. This is more like blue chip now!
> 
> Perhaps I'll put my HDR winnings on this!
> 
> (sorry the chart is busy)
> 
> kennas






Thanks for the reply Kennas, youre opinion is valued.

The point I was trying to illustrate is on the gap on the Fourth last candle, my punt on the OPEN gap. My purchase morning and it fell straight through it the next day!. I was hoping for a rebound before close. Because Ive traded PDN a lot and know the prices/volumes, off hand for the last few months, I took the punt and hit the buy trigger.

Hopefully for other readers on the thread it illustrates that Palladin could quite easily have fallen to its next support at $3.90ish, or lower. The pitfall of catching a falling knife!.
Luckily for me, it didn't and heres hoping $4.15 might be a new support, only time will tell.

As for a fall to $3.40, it would have to a terrible market or most holders selling at some large losses as there cant be many traders  left in at these prices. Surely the investors would be staying in till the mine opens.


Cheers


----------



## nizar

*Re: PDN - Paladin Resources*

Seems like the market hasnt realised that while gold, copper and zinc are all down from the highs, uranium is still going up very strong. When they realise this, uranium companies especially PDN are going to get a massive re-rating.

UBS have the target of $5, and other brokers will start soon. The problem is, when they try to work out earnings estimates, what u price do they use? us$50/lb? us$60/lb? When first sales come in january it will likly be us$70/lb+ IMO and increasing by the week.

And dont forget, LH will be the first new uranium mine to be producing in 20years+, thats sure to attract some attention including overseas punters


----------



## MalteseBull

*Re: PDN - Paladin Resources*

buyers bulding at 4.38 looking to run to 4.50


----------



## Chief Wigam

*Re: PDN - Paladin Resources*

I reckon CMR is a better buy than PDN. It has more U in the ground and other metals too.

Don't mean to spoil the party, but check it out.


----------



## nizar

*Re: PDN - Paladin Resources*



			
				Chief Wigam said:
			
		

> I reckon CMR is a better buy than PDN. It has more U in the ground and other metals too.
> 
> Don't mean to spoil the party, but check it out.




When will CMR start production?
Yeh.. i thought so


----------



## Sean K

*Re: PDN - Paladin Resources*

Since it broke $4.60 in August it's started a new upward trend. Looking good to break through $5.10 I think.


----------



## billhill

*Re: PDN - Paladin Resources*

Hi guys,
           I know you seem to be more interested in the technical side of things but i wanted to know what the implication of the lawsiut by summit resources on resolute mining have for paladin's holding of valhalla. I don't know anything about law and have been searching for the ins and outs on possible outcomes. Can paladin have the skal and valhalla deposits confiscated or is this simply an issue concerning resolute and summit. Can anyone help.

Thanks.


----------



## Sean K

*Re: PDN - Paladin Resources*

Bill, SMM stated in their notice to shareholders regarding the litigation that they have no beef with PDN and in fact said they would be very happy to be partners with them. Their issue is with RSG. So, no effect of PDN really except that they may not get ownership of VUL. At this stage, I'm not sure if short term this would significantly effect PDN. Getting LH on line is the most important thing.


----------



## billhill

*Re: PDN - Paladin Resources*

Thanks Kennas


----------



## Ubull

*Re: PDN - Paladin Resources*

Anyone got any ideas on the effect of Deep Yellow acquiring tenements beside Langer Heinreich in Namibia?


----------



## Fab

*Re: PDN - Paladin Resources*

pdn finally got over the 5.20 mark.Look out for the bull run


----------



## nizar

*Re: PDN - Paladin Resources*



			
				Fab said:
			
		

> pdn finally got over the 5.20 mark.Look out for the bull run



my chart says resistance at 5.40-5.50
needs to overcome that first before it goes anywhere


----------



## Fab

*Re: PDN - Paladin Resources*

Looks like around 5.20 to me on Kennas chart


----------



## nizar

*Re: PDN - Paladin Resources*



			
				Fab said:
			
		

> Looks like around 5.20 to me on Kennas chart




Look at April, my friend


----------



## GRIZ

*Re: PDN - Paladin Resources*

I'm with you fab, sold yesterday @5.17,  If cant get above 5.20-5.22 for 4 days, with close lower than open, even with market trending up, thats strong resistance. Thought If It bracks 5.25 Ill buy back in,  Even with Oscillator & MACD rolling over - starting to trend down. Now its brocken maybe 5.20 is now short term support? Aprils highs were bought on by Chines president visiting & 31/08 high was fund 500,000 shares @ close.  my first post, good trading all.


----------



## Fab

*Re: PDN - Paladin Resources*

Gritz,

I am kind of undecided on this one. I had a couple of sell order at 5.40 that I cancelled. I was thinking to sell around 5.20 and buy back at around $4 as this seems to be where PDN has been trading recently nevertheless I believe their mine is plan to go in prod at the beginning of December which in my opinion should push the share price higher.
I don't really want to be in a position where I sold to early so as I believe pdn has great potential. Basically their management seems to be top class and having a mine in Africa with little regulation let them do what they want.
Sounds a pretty good deal to me.


----------



## GRIZ

*Re: PDN - Paladin Resources*

Hi Fab, thanks for reply, totally agree with all. Including timing (ASX news 28/06) commencement of commissioning achieved one month early (how unusual is that, great management). Completion due late Dec. bring that forward a month, want to back in first week Dec. latest. Dont like selling PDN anytime its been a long time since last sale announcement(10-15%jump). But PDN feels heavily traded, when it starts to decline in price the sellers come out fast. This high was different to previous, far more gradual rise and role of. Hard to work out current support, maybe some chartists could weigh in? Thanks, good trading.   PS all my uranium stocks look like they have topped for now.


----------



## Prospector

*Re: PDN - Paladin Resources*

I notice a nice gain of 12% this morning, with the only announcement relating to an increase in DYL holdings.  Is there any other reason for the climb?


----------



## Fab

*Re: PDN - Paladin Resources*

Yep I noticed that too. This one is a gem


----------



## nizar

*Re: PDN - Paladin Resources*



			
				Prospector said:
			
		

> I notice a nice gain of 12% this morning, with the only announcement relating to an increase in DYL holdings.  Is there any other reason for the climb?




PDN gained in excess of 14% overnight on the TSX


----------



## Fab

*Re: PDN - Paladin Resources*

Nizar,

What is the TSX ?


----------



## GRIZ

*Re: PDN - Paladin Resources*

Does anyone know why there are now huge buy orders 100,000-200,000 shares at a time from single buyers? Yesterday nothing less than 4 million dollars total value, 11.5 million value in the first hour today. Big volume for ERA, SMM and others. Maybe new nuc. managed fund? Can't find anything on the internet. Could be nickel share money looking for a new home. CNBC said big short positions taken out on nickel price recently.


----------



## Fab

*Re: PDN - Paladin Resources*

Nuclear energy is a big business and uranium is the core of it. Luckily we 've got it here in Australia.


----------



## juddy

*Re: PDN - Paladin Resources*

I'd say this has got a lot to do with it.

http://today.reuters.com/news/artic...MINERALS-CAMECO-UPDATE-5.XML&rpc=66&type=qcna


----------



## GRIZ

*Re: PDN - Paladin Resources*

Fab, TSX is the Canadian - Toronto stock exchange.

nizar, do you think gap up will island, or has it broken out?

thanks juddy.


----------



## Freeballinginawetsuit

*Re: PDN - Paladin Resources*



			
				kennas said:
			
		

> $4.00 is support, also at 200d ma. Could bounce from here, but I reckon the chart says $4.00. Then $3.50.




Hmmm, one month later.


----------



## Prospector

*Re: PDN - Paladin Resources*

What a difference a month makes!

Edited to add - make that a day!


----------



## Freeballinginawetsuit

*Re: PDN - Paladin Resources*

Looks like it might break $6 bucks.


----------



## Sean K

*Re: PDN - Paladin Resources*

Yes, well, around $4.00 WAS support ($4.15 is pretty close on a down trend in the scheme of things) and $5.15 - $5.25 was clear resistance over the past two weeks until it broke out. My original post about $3.50, was indicating that that was the next level of support DOWN if $4.00 was broken. Clearly that did not occur and the stock did bounce. 

WHAT A DIFFERENCE A MONTH MAKES. 

Especially when one of the largest uranium mines in the world is put on hold for a year, out of the blue! 

More blue sky to come I'd say. 

Good luck to all holders.


----------



## Freeballinginawetsuit

*Re: PDN - Paladin Resources*



			
				kennas said:
			
		

> Yes, well, around $4.00 WAS support ($4.15 is pretty close on a down trend in the scheme of things) and $5.15 - $5.25 was clear resistance over the past two weeks until it broke out. My original post about $3.50, was indicating that that was the next level of support DOWN if $4.00 was broken. Clearly that did not occur and the stock did bounce.
> 
> WHAT A DIFFERENCE A MONTH MAKES.
> 
> Especially when one of the largest uranium mines in the world is put on hold for a year, out of the blue!
> 
> More blue sky to come I'd say.
> 
> Good luck to all holders.




It bounced to $5.25 shortly after your post a month ago. Regardless of external issues. 

The money made could have been put into Nickle/Zinc plays, they all subsequently ran in the following weeks.

You could have then bought PDN a few days back for $4.90 (it found support here) and punted on a break at some time in the near future.

Sure a bit of lucky news happened. Some news was bound to. Considering U at the moment and PDN clear objectives in the market and swallowing up the exploration plays, its quite obvious they are fast becoming a potential big boy!.


----------



## nizar

*Re: PDN - Paladin Resources*



			
				kennas said:
			
		

> Yes, well, around $4.00 WAS support ($4.15 is pretty close on a down trend in the scheme of things) and $5.15 - $5.25 was clear resistance over the past two weeks until it broke out. My original post about $3.50, was indicating that that was the next level of support DOWN if $4.00 was broken. Clearly that did not occur and the stock did bounce.
> 
> WHAT A DIFFERENCE A MONTH MAKES.
> 
> Especially when one of the largest uranium mines in the world is put on hold for a year, out of the blue!
> 
> More blue sky to come I'd say.
> 
> Good luck to all holders.




This is an outstanding breakout.
Volume confirmation is there also.


----------



## Fab

*Re: PDN - Paladin Resources*

I am happy I kept this one. Unfortunately I stupidly sold my SMM yesterday so they are not running as strongly as PDN. I say it again this one is a gem.


----------



## Fab

*Re: PDN - Paladin Resources*

WOW $6 already. I wish I had bought 2 years ago


----------



## Sean K

*Re: PDN - Paladin Resources*

I've missed the boat I think.   

1151 [Dow Jones] Paladin (PDN.AU) lances another fresh high, surging to A$6.47 before easing, last up 8.1% at A$6.38 on lively trading of 2.6 millon shares. PDN, which holds stakes in a number of advanced uranium projects in Australia, reported Friday no major problems emerged at Langer Heinrich project, Namibia, 95% complete, many plant items commissioned, trained workforce on site. Further upside seems possible when first ore produced removing any doubts about plant circuits. After trading at 1 cent 3 years ago, PDN long term investors richly rewarded by PDN's counter cyclical investment strategy, superb timing, with plant set to start at time of historical price highs for uranium, with Ux Consulting reporting spot on Oct. 30 at US$60/pound. (RCB)


----------



## Prospector

*Re: PDN - Paladin Resources*

My all time favourite share!  I started in at 11c and have been in and out so many times.  When I sell I immediately regret so cant help myself for buying back in    Last entry in was $3.68 not all that long ago so am pretty pleased with it all.  PDN and DYL are making this a very pleasant monday! : At last something to smile about!


----------



## Fab

*Re: PDN - Paladin Resources*

I have been in since 2.45 almost bought more at 1.80 (a long time ago now   ) but did not buy because I feared it might retrace. In high sight my only regret is having bought not enough of those


----------



## michael_selway

*Re: PDN - Paladin Resources*



			
				Prospector said:
			
		

> My all time favourite share!  I started in at 11c and have been in and out so many times.  When I sell I immediately regret so cant help myself for buying back in    Last entry in was $3.68 not all that long ago so am pretty pleased with it all.  PDN and DYL are making this a very pleasant monday! : At last something to smile about!




Great stuff! PDN is da bomb!

thx

MS


----------



## nizar

*Re: PDN - Paladin Resources*



> After trading at 1 cent 3 years ago




All u needed was a few Gs and alot of faith, 600-fold, god damn i wonder if any1 really has rode it ALL THE WAY?

$5Gs = 500,000 shares, and 3 years later $3.25million


----------



## Freeballinginawetsuit

*Re: PDN - Paladin Resources*



			
				nizar said:
			
		

> All u needed was a few Gs and alot of faith, 600-fold, god damn i wonder if any1 really has rode it ALL THE WAY?
> 
> $5Gs = 500,000 shares, and 3 years later $3.25million





A few would have rode Paladin all the way. It still has a long way to go Nizar, I think in 3 months this one will go a real long way, a unhedged new U producer able to take advantage of prices not seen for decades. If their are no hiccups when it comes on line, it's blue sky!.


----------



## Prospector

*Re: PDN - Paladin Resources*

Well, I started at 11cents - but because this was one of my first real trades I sold at around $1.  I only bought $1000 worth at the time, so around 9000 I think.  
That would be worth now, around $60,300!    
I traded then for a while, in various entities I run shares in and have done so well with PDN.  Am now back in, but at levels from around 3.50 to 5.50!  But all good with more to come.  And this time I am hanging on forever!


----------



## EvilCoconut

*Re: PDN - Paladin Resources*

ALL WHO INVESTED IN PDN i envy you!!! thats all i have to say.


----------



## pacer

*Re: PDN - Paladin Resources*

Nice wig.....WOW...I hold all my small plays!....forever....cause I trust my instincts....even if one pays big....I be happy...lol....in 20 years one will be the retirement fund.....



			
				Prospector said:
			
		

> Well, I started at 11cents - but because this was one of my first real trades I sold at around $1.  I only bought $1000 worth at the time, so around 9000 I think.
> That would be worth now, around $60,300!
> I traded then for a while, in various entities I run shares in and have done so well with PDN.  Am now back in, but at levels from around 3.50 to 5.50!  But all good with more to come.  And this time I am hanging on forever!


----------



## Fab

*Re: PDN - Paladin Resources*

I got in at 2.45 and only bought 4000 . This is my only regret. I could have bought more so at 1.80 but did not have the cash at the time. This one will run run run


----------



## x2rider

*Re: PDN - Paladin Resources*

A stop in trade and a good ann. I wish they made it earlier in the day 
 Cheers Martin


----------



## blueroo

*Re: PDN - Paladin Resources*

Fancy making a healthy ann. like that with 15 mins to go and the weekend ahead to take the heat out of it. Doesn't the management know that there are honest traders/investors trying to make a quid


----------



## Fab

*Re: PDN - Paladin Resources*

There is nothing stopping this one at the moment


----------



## spitrader1

*Re: PDN - Paladin Resources*



			
				Fab said:
			
		

> There is nothing stopping this one at the moment



fab i fancy there is a little bit of switching into this name out of ERA at the moment.


----------



## Fab

*Re: PDN - Paladin Resources*

Could be. I never look at ERA and always thought PDN was the best U stock in the ASX. It will be interesting to know when they annouce that they are going into production. Maybe they will then offer a dividend   which would boost the sp even further


----------



## nizar

*Re: PDN - Paladin Resources*



			
				Fab said:
			
		

> Could be. I never look at ERA and always thought PDN was the best U stock in the ASX. It will be interesting to know when they annouce that they are going into production. Maybe they will then offer a dividend   which would boost the sp even further




Dividend?
I dont think so. At least not yet (for a few years)
Theyve got Kayakelera to develop and then us$92million LH CAPEX to repay.


----------



## lancer

*Re: PDN - Paladin Resources*

re:Could be. I never look at ERA and always thought PDN was the best U stock in the ASX. It will be interesting to know when they annouce that they are going into production. Maybe they will then offer a dividend  which would boost the sp even further

 Nothing is stopping this at the moment, it will be great when they announce production. I also feel very strongly about this stock. Yes they have debt to repay but which Junior doesnt at this point? J.D.... loves this stock, he is picking frg- (nyse) pnp-(tsx) and mga-(tsx) as his top three picks to have the most from his portfolio in, I am hoping he adds this one soon!


----------



## Freeballinginawetsuit

*Re: PDN - Paladin Resources*

Stops getting hit all over the place with PDN ATM, I got nailed at $6.90


----------



## Freeballinginawetsuit

*Re: PDN - Paladin Resources*

Hmmmmm, Ive been holding PDN for months waiting for an announcement on the mine commisioning (should be around now) and dissapointed to be out now  .

Maybe those in the know have some info on some hiccups and are dumping and today is the start of worse to come!, or some bargains are to be had. This is the lowest PDN has been for a while.

Large volumes for PDN today and they were travelling fine up to an hour ago, strange thing the market


----------



## Fab

*Re: PDN - Paladin Resources*



			
				Freeballinginawetsuit said:
			
		

> Hmmmmm, Ive been holding PDN for months waiting for an announcement on the mine commisioning (should be around now) and dissapointed to be out now  .
> 
> Maybe those in the know have some info on some hiccups and are dumping and today is the start of worse to come!, or some bargains are to be had. This is the lowest PDN has been for a while.
> 
> Large volumes for PDN today and they were travelling fine up to an hour ago, strange thing the market




Very strange indeed. Big shift in confidence there.


----------



## blues

*Re: PDN - Paladin Resources*

Might have something to do with this on the news wires.

Paladin Resources down 42 cents, or 5.8%, at A$6.79 with
dealer saying report in Wall Street Journal that US will sell down part of its uranium
stockpiles and hence drive prices lower, is affecting stock. Notes that while PDN has run
to A$7.45 from A$5 in last 2 months, news causing some caution, despite US Energy Dept
first proposing plans in August.

Rival producer ERA (ERA.AU) also off in last 2 hours,
down 5.5% at A$17.48.


----------



## redandgreen

*Re: PDN - Paladin Resources*



			
				blues said:
			
		

> Might have something to do with this on the news wires.
> 
> Paladin Resources down 42 cents, or 5.8%, at A$6.79 with
> dealer saying report in Wall Street Journal that US will sell down part of its uranium
> stockpiles and hence drive prices lower, is affecting stock. Notes that while PDN has run
> to A$7.45 from A$5 in last 2 months, news causing some caution, despite US Energy Dept
> first proposing plans in August.
> 
> Rival producer ERA (ERA.AU) also off in last 2 hours,
> down 5.5% at A$17.48.




it seems all U stocks are down,  the market is so fickle,
 agree it must have to do with this humbug on the news wires.


----------



## Freeballinginawetsuit

*Re: PDN - Paladin Resources*

Yep those percentages seem to be on the money, totally out of left field though. Oh well that what trailers are for!.

Now I don't own them I hope they crash some more, plant blows up, yada, yada : , could be another entry just around the corner.


----------



## nizar

*Re: PDN - Paladin Resources*



			
				Freeballinginawetsuit said:
			
		

> could be another entry just around the corner.




I think so too.


----------



## Rafa

*Re: PDN - Paladin Resources*

I have a question....

Does anyone know when PDN will be a margin lending enabled stock?
Also, do you think this will have a dramatic effect on the price?

Its also being included in the ASX100 on Dec 15th too...

I bought pdn for the first time a few weeks ago in the mid 6 dollar mark as part of my long term hold portfolio...


----------



## lancer

*Re: PDN - Paladin Resources*

I think a slight pullback is perfectly normal for a stock that has done this well in such a short amount of time. I dont think it has anything to do with possible bad news coming out. Seems if their is a slight dip a lot of people institutions will dump thinking it will go further.


----------



## Freeballinginawetsuit

*Re: PDN - Paladin Resources*



			
				Rafa said:
			
		

> I have a question....
> 
> Does anyone know when PDN will be a margin lending enabled stock?
> Also, do you think this will have a dramatic effect on the price?
> 
> Its also being included in the ASX100 on Dec 15th too...
> 
> I bought pdn for the first time a few weeks ago in the mid 6 dollar mark as part of my long term hold portfolio...





When PDN becomes a producer, margin lending should become available. The next few months will be pretty crucial for PDN, the market has factored in pretty much 'the best case scenario', in their current SP. If LH is commisioned smoothly expect a decent rise in SP (10-15 Percent), any hiccups in bringing LH on line, the SP will turn south according to the size of the hiccup.

PDN also has K in the pipeline, this is is not as much factored into their current SP, again this should bring some value into PDN in 08. PDN's holdings in Aust also add some more value to them. All in all PDN is a bit of a success story in the U market and really is one of the few newbies on the globe to hit production at premium U prices.

IMO once you can margin on PDN, a few more punters will take positions in them and also a decent percentage of those punters will stay long, should help the SP a bit.

What should give most holders in PDN confidence is the quality of Borshoff and his management team, they rarely put a foot wrong and indeed seem to have the midas touch when it comes to PDN's growth


----------



## chansw

*Re: PDN - Paladin Resources*



			
				Freeballinginawetsuit said:
			
		

> IMO once you can margin on PDN, a few more punters will take positions in them and also a decent percentage of those punters will stay long, should help the SP a bit.



You can margin on PDN with BT Online but the LVR is only 35%.


----------



## Kauri

*Re: PDN - Paladin Resources*

IG's DMA CFD's are available at 10% with an  optionable GSL at 0.7%


----------



## Freeballinginawetsuit

*Re: PDN - Paladin Resources*

Cheers Guys, I only margin on my BHP holdings but I'm sure others would find it useful. I certainly wasn't aware you could margin on PDN


----------



## lancer

*Re: PDN - Paladin Resources*

up 52 cents! (canadian) almost back to its all time high.


----------



## lancer

*Re: PDN - Paladin Resources*

Anyone notice the news on PDN? The construction stage commissioning has been completed and has produced the first piece of yellowcake. The first new mine completion in a decade. Hopefully this wont be a sell on fact deal....


----------



## Fab

*Re: PDN - Paladin Resources*



			
				lancer said:
			
		

> Anyone notice the news on PDN? The construction stage commissioning has been completed and has produced the first piece of yellowcake. The first new mine completion in a decade. Hopefully this wont be a sell on fact deal....




Does not like it it is goind wild at the moment


----------



## Rafa

*Re: PDN - Paladin Resources*

giddyup...
 :jump:  :jump:  :jump: 



PS: surely its going to margin lending OK now!!!


----------



## michael_selway

*Re: PDN - Paladin Resources*



			
				Fab said:
			
		

> Does not like it it is goind wild at the moment




Far out this stock is crazy

shoudl have bought it

thx

MS


----------



## Halba

*Re: PDN - Paladin Resources*

whats PE now? must be crazy for a miner


----------



## Fab

*Re: PDN - Paladin Resources*

I believe it is going to go much much much higher now that the PM is clearly stating he wants to go nuclear. Also PDN is now in Production and even though Australia does not change their policy on U mining in mid 2007 uranium will be in huge demand because of a lot of countries going nuclear.  
All blue sky as far as I am concern. The P/e looks crazy so


----------



## x2rider

*Re: PDN - Paladin Resources*

well fab 
 I nice 4 % rise over night so it should rebound aftere the profit taking of yesterday.  I am currently quite over weight on this stock as I can't resist buying it everytime it gets to a new high 
 Cheers martin


----------



## Sean K

*Re: PDN - Paladin Resources*

The market cap of this is a little scarey for me at the moment, although I see plenty of upside in some of it's projects like Bigryli, Valhalla (if the litigation goes ok and Labor grow up), and Kayelekera will be heading into production in the next few years. Looks set to become a major global U player. But $4.5b, with no income is just obscene. Anyone have a forecast profit from the BFS on LH with a $60, and $80 U3O8 spot price?


----------



## Fab

*Re: PDN - Paladin Resources*



			
				kennas said:
			
		

> The market cap of this is a little scarey for me at the moment, although I see plenty of upside in some of it's projects like Bigryli, Valhalla (if the litigation goes ok and Labor grow up), and Kayelekera will be heading into production in the next few years. Looks set to become a major global U player. But $4.5b, with no income is just obscene. Anyone have a forecast profit from the BFS on LH with a $60, and $80 U3O8 spot price?




Indeed the market cap is obscene then there is nothing else to compare it to as we have not had a U boom in the past


----------



## Sean K

*Re: PDN - Paladin Resources*



			
				Fab said:
			
		

> Indeed the market cap is obscene then there is nothing else to compare it to as we have not had a U boom in the past



Yes, agree, no U boom like this in the past that I know of.

There was some type of Nickel boom wasn't there? How did that end up. I don't know all the details, but I have a feeling it was pain. Is that anything like this? Maybe not. 

Dot com? Hard to compare apples with oranges but the reason the tech stocks flew was becasue of the 'potential' that the market saw in them, not just sentiment, or traders. Perhaps. 

I am definately not saying all these U stocks are going to crash. I don't know enough about economics or even the industry to make a truely qualified comment. Plus, I just don't know what's going to happen with the supply demand equation in say 10-15 years, when all these new mines come on line. At what point does the market realise that once the juniors get to production, uranium spot price will be back at $10? Maybe. Or, does the supply outstrip demand forever? Unlikely.

Obviously though, PDN isn't in this situation. It's just about to start production so it's going to see the full value of the short to mid term appreciation of uranium spot. Perhaps one of the only ones along with current producers who haven't hedged their contacts too greatly.


----------



## lancer

*Re: PDN - Paladin Resources*



			
				Fab said:
			
		

> Indeed the market cap is obscene then there is nothing else to compare it to as we have not had a U boom in the past




I concur. However this stock (and the rest of Juniors) are most likely being priced off the current spot price, which may justify it more so. For SURE nothing esle has risen like the spot price for Uranium, EVER in the sector. And PDN is the closest to mine especially compared to all the rest


----------



## billhill

*Re: PDN - Paladin Resources*

I think we can definitely say that PDN and the whole uranium sector is substantially overpriced. However saying that from the research i have done uranium demand is going to continue to outstrip supply for many years to come. So the question is whether a rising uranium price is a sufficient reason for people to continue to buy into the sector? Would overvaluation result in a crash in U shares.


----------



## Fab

*Re: PDN - Paladin Resources*



			
				billhill said:
			
		

> I think we can definitely say that PDN and the whole uranium sector is substantially overpriced. However saying that from the research i have done uranium demand is going to continue to outstrip supply for many years to come. So the question is whether a rising uranium price is a sufficient reason for people to continue to buy into the sector? Would overvaluation result in a crash in U shares.



PDN is now producing and that is very valuable when other are still trying to extract the stuff. I think PDN is going through a short term correction after a big rise in the last few days.


----------



## bigdog

*Re: PDN - Paladin Resources*

ASX ann PDN 1:57 PM   GRD's ann:Commissioning of Langer Heinrich Uranium Project 

http://www.asx.com.au/asx/statistics/showAnnouncementPDF.do?idsID=00682888


----------



## Fab

*Re: PDN - Paladin Resources*

 Profit taking today ? I was expecting better after today annoucement.


----------



## Fab

*Re: PDN - Paladin Resources*

Taking an hamering today but then it is not the only one. I am wondering where the next resistance point is ?


----------



## Sean K

*Re: PDN - Paladin Resources*



			
				Fab said:
			
		

> Taking an hamering today but then it is not the only one. I am wondering where the next resistance point is ?



Should be support between $6.60 and $7.50. 

Hard to see this current trend channel continuing, but stranger things have happened.


----------



## Rafa

*Re: PDN - Paladin Resources*

cheers for the chart kennas...
given it was only yesterday you were talking about locking in those gains, how did you go?



I still hold all my U stocks, and overall, i am amazed that they have only fallen ONLY about 5%.... after almost all of them doubled in the matter of months!

IF i had liquidated yesterday, i dare say i would be buying back in today...

what are your thoughts on the U sector in particular?


----------



## Fab

*Re: PDN - Paladin Resources*

I believe stock like PDN will bounce back are they are the one that are close to generate U


----------



## Sean K

*Re: PDN - Paladin Resources*



			
				Rafa said:
			
		

> cheers for the chart kennas...
> given it was only yesterday you were talking about locking in those gains, how did you go?
> 
> I still hold all my U stocks, and overall, i am amazed that they have only fallen ONLY about 5%.... after almost all of them doubled in the matter of months!
> 
> IF i had liquidated yesterday, i dare say i would be buying back in today...
> 
> what are your thoughts on the U sector in particular?



I didn't sell anything   

I'm riding that wave right up to the edge, and probably over it!   

I think today might be part of a healthy break in the upward trend for uranium. NOTHING goes straight up forever and there will ALWAYS be corrections. 

I don't think it's a bubble yet, but it's bubbly close! I might be wrong and this is the start of the end but some stocks have a little way to go and the ones with known resources that are likely to start mining in the next few years should stay afloat. PDN is one of them, but is it worth $4.5b? 

Perhaps the Christmas period and Little Johnny's 'Go Nuclear Taskforce' have put the recent bomb under U stocks and the U phoria is over for a little while until Little Kevie changes Labor policy for the States to follow......Maybe a pause until the run up to April..........

Overall, risky game this - backing company's riding a wave of speculative trading money. Just where is the top? I'm treading very carefully at the moment. Lost too much in 99 to not have a parachute ready.


----------



## Fab

*Re: PDN - Paladin Resources*



			
				kennas said:
			
		

> I didn't sell anything
> 
> I'm riding that wave right up to the edge, and probably over it!
> 
> I think today might be part of a healthy break in the upward trend for uranium. NOTHING goes straight up forever and there will ALWAYS be corrections.
> 
> I don't think it's a bubble yet, but it's bubbly close! I might be wrong and this is the start of the end but some stocks have a little way to go and the ones with known resources that are likely to start mining in the next few years should stay afloat. PDN is one of them, but is it worth $4.5b?
> 
> Perhaps the Christmas period and Little Johnny's 'Go Nuclear Taskforce' have put the recent bomb under U stocks and the U phoria is over for a little while until Little Kevie changes Labor policy for the States to follow......Maybe a pause until the run up to April..........
> 
> Overall, risky game this - backing company's riding a wave of speculative trading money. Just where is the top? I'm treading very carefully at the moment. Lost too much in 99 to not have a parachute ready.




Yep that sounds like a good analysis. i could not help nevertheless I could not help myself today and bought some more BHP as I believe they are really undervalue at the moment


----------



## Rafa

*Re: PDN - Paladin Resources*

so far, corrections in U stocks have lasted no more than a day or two...
URA for example, has gone up 80 cents (from 80 cents) in 5 days, but today its barely fallen 10 cents!

Yeah, tomorrow is going to be interesting... but of all the resources, i am most confident about Uranium.

I added a bit more AGS today....   

As for the rest of the commodoties, their corrections last a lot longer. I thought one was coming soon, so I sold ZFX yesterday cause technically that was looking very toppy... 

But I still held INL... more for the technology rather than the zinc.


----------



## Fab

*Re: PDN - Paladin Resources*



			
				Rafa said:
			
		

> so far, corrections in U stocks have lasted no more than a day or two...
> URA for example, has gone up 80 cents (from 80 cents) in 5 days, but today its barely fallen 10 cents!
> 
> Yeah, tomorrow is going to be interesting... but of all the resources, i am most confident about Uranium.
> 
> I added a bit more AGS today....
> 
> As for the rest of the commodoties, their corrections last a lot longer. I thought one was coming soon, so I sold ZFX yesterday cause technically that was looking very toppy...
> 
> But I still held INL... more for the technology rather than the zinc.




I hope you are right about the U stock correction not lasting too long.
I am wondering if PDN is actually already producing or are we still waiting for start of production. I know I stated that they started producing but now I have a doubt.If they are not yet then when they go into prod this should boost them back up


----------



## tybutler

*Re: PDN - Paladin Resources*



			
				Fab said:
			
		

> I hope you are right about the U stock correction not lasting too long.
> I am wondering if PDN is actually already producing or are we still waiting for start of production. I know I stated that they started producing but now I have a doubt.If they are not yet then when they go into prod this should boost them back up




What do you mean "I stated that they started producing....". Isn't that what Paladin said in their press release??? Do you ever have any facts Fab, or do you only make vague comments about nothing, and always ask for basic information which you could easily find yourself???


----------



## Fab

*Re: PDN - Paladin Resources*



			
				tybutler said:
			
		

> What do you mean "I stated that they started producing....". Isn't that what Paladin said in their press release??? Do you ever have any facts Fab, or do you only make vague comments about nothing, and always ask for basic information which you could easily find yourself???



Just read the announcement quickly that is why I could not remember.


----------



## nizar

*Re: PDN - Paladin Resources*



			
				Fab said:
			
		

> I am wondering if PDN is actually already producing or are we still waiting for start of production. I know I stated that they started producing but now I have a doubt.If they are not yet then when they go into prod this should boost them back up




LOL if you base your stock picking on fundamentals, then do some research buddy. Please.


----------



## Fab

*Re: PDN - Paladin Resources*



			
				nizar said:
			
		

> LOL if you base your stock picking on fundamentals, then do some research buddy. Please.



I actually bought into this one because I believe in Nuclear technology and they were at the time the closest to production and owning asset overseas which are easier to develop than Oz one. That is my fundamental analysis of this stock. I did not do too bad as I bought at $2.45. My problem now is to know when to sell as pdn has corrected quite strongly in the last few days. I still think it will go above $10 and more if the U mining policy is changed in June


----------



## lancer

*Re: PDN - Paladin Resources*



			
				Fab said:
			
		

> I actually bought into this one because I believe in Nuclear technology and they were at the time the closest to production and owning asset overseas which are easier to develop than Oz one. That is my fundamental analysis of this stock. I did not do too bad as I bought at $2.45. My problem now is to know when to sell as pdn has corrected quite strongly in the last few days. I still think it will go above $10 and more if the U mining policy is changed in June




Wow nice, as much as I like research sometimes looking at the big picture works better than finding a stock that has a good pe ratio etc....Especially in the case of PDN which you would have never bought if you based it on earnings and such...Good job!


----------



## Sean K

*Re: PDN - Paladin Resources*



			
				Fab said:
			
		

> I actually bought into this one because I believe in Nuclear technology and they were at the time the closest to production and owning asset overseas which are easier to develop than Oz one. That is my fundamental analysis of this stock. I did not do too bad as I bought at $2.45. My problem now is to know when to sell as pdn has corrected quite strongly in the last few days. I still think it will go above $10 and more if the U mining policy is changed in June



Fab, why is there so much upside in PDN if the Aust policy is changed in June, and why $10+? 

Firstly, the Labor Party national conference is in April which is when the policy will be changed. Then it will take some time for the Labor State Govs to ratify the decision. This could take any time up to 6 months probably. 

Second, do you think that PDNs upside is in their Australian projects? Their projects in Australia are JVs with SMM and EME. Sure the IUJV is a good project but I'm not sure about Bigryli yet. 

With a $10 sp what market cap do you have for PDN?


----------



## Fab

*Re: PDN - Paladin Resources*



			
				kennas said:
			
		

> Fab, why is there so much upside in PDN if the Aust policy is changed in June, and why $10+?
> 
> Firstly, the Labor Party national conference is in April which is when the policy will be changed. Then it will take some time for the Labor State Govs to ratify the decision. This could take any time up to 6 months probably.
> 
> Second, do you think that PDNs upside is in their Australian projects? Their projects in Australia are JVs with SMM and EME. Sure the IUJV is a good project but I'm not sure about Bigryli yet.
> 
> With a $10 sp what market cap do you have for PDN?



If you look at the market cap it is way too high therefore there is always the risk it will correct dramatically but then we have never had any U stocks rush  before and there is a huge demand for uranium even though OZ does not change their policy and PDN will be able to benefit from it anyway as they are mining U in Africa and they are now producing the stuff.


----------



## Sean K

*Re: PDN - Paladin Resources*



			
				Fab said:
			
		

> If you look at the market cap it is way too high therefore there is always the risk it will correct dramatically but then we have never had any U stocks rush  before and there is a huge demand for uranium even though OZ does not change their policy and PDN will be able to benefit from it anyway as they are mining U in Africa and they are now producing the stuff.



I think there WILL be more upside in Australia Fab, just not sure how to put a $$ figure on it. Perhaps it's factored into the sp already? I think they'll be involved with more consolidation in the sector too. Perhaps they will buy out DYL or SMM or EME, or even BMN, but these market caps are getting so high they might have missed the boat. Would certainly be very hard for anyone to buy PDN now comparing market cap to what they are going to earn. I don't think anyone has worked that out yet actually....


----------



## dj_420

*Re: PDN - Paladin Resources*

what kennas is asking is that market cap actually justifiable for their cash flow and projects.

at $10 i have the market cap at $5 billion dollars (around 500 million shares on issue - from last qtrly).

LH has around 100 million pounds which at insitu is $7.2 billion USD. not sure what cost of production is havent looked that far. but less production and the market cap is not to far off what LH would be worth.

obviously spot will increase and they have only just begun production, so we are yet to see cashflow begin. 

IMO sp ran a little hard and is now showing some retracement. could be wrong just my two cents.


----------



## Fab

*Re: PDN - Paladin Resources*



			
				kennas said:
			
		

> I think there WILL be more upside in Australia Fab, just not sure how to put a $$ figure on it. Perhaps it's factored into the sp already? I think they'll be involved with more consolidation in the sector too. Perhaps they will buy out DYL or SMM or EME, or even BMN, but these market caps are getting so high they might have missed the boat. Would certainly be very hard for anyone to buy PDN now comparing market cap to what they are going to earn. I don't think anyone has worked that out yet actually....



I am not saying there is no upside for pdn in Australia but it would be much easier at the moment to mine in Africa I guess if the labor party remove the mining restriction in April then that should give a boost to the mining sector that is where I am coming from.


----------



## lancer

*Re: PDN - Paladin Resources*

PDN up 35 cents atm, anyone think the correction or small pullback may be a better term is complete? Or still too early to know?


----------



## Sean K

*Re: PDN - Paladin Resources*



			
				Fab said:
			
		

> I am not saying there is no upside for pdn in Australia but it would be much easier at the moment to mine in Africa I guess if the labor party remove the mining restriction in April then that should give a boost to the mining sector that is where I am coming from.



Yes, in the lead up to April there should be renewed focus on Aussie U companies in Australia. I just wonder how much of the policy change is already been factored into the sp's? I think it's a monty that Labor will change and I think the market does too, so perhaps not much? Anyway, will be interesting to see. Focus will definately be on uranium and that can't be bad at all.


----------



## Rafa

*Re: PDN - Paladin Resources*

most U stocks have rebounded well today or are holding their own...

Just as i predicted...   

ok, ok, i admit, it was just a guess...
rather, it was just a hope... 


anyway,
i would expect all u stocks to take a nice healthy breather now... 
bit of consolodation around these prices is just what is needed.

what are your thoughts?
is this just a bounce, before continuing to fall...

In PDN's case, i think today's action is a bounce... before it continues to settle down from its lofty heights.... probably as kennas mentioned around 7.50

In the case of AGS, i think the JORC's are rather close by, and hence i can't see this one staying down for long...

MTN is well overdue for breather, i would like it to settle around 1.80

BMN, well, as alluded to earlier, this stock only knows one direction... so far its holding the steeper uptrend, with support from the slightly less steeper uptrend channel


----------



## Fab

*Re: PDN - Paladin Resources*

 PDN appears to have bounced around the $8 mark maybe this is its new support.


----------



## lancer

*Re: PDN - Paladin Resources*

I Dont know about going crazy, but I am happy it is up. Hopefully it is on the rebound for a while. I know PDN did not pullback or correct as much as some other big U stocks I own. Hopefully we will see a few up days to be sure we are through the worst of it


----------



## fma007

*Re: PDN - Paladin Resources*

down again.. and dragging other u stocks down. a spot price increase would be very nice to get things moving again or else we have to wait until march for some action


----------



## Fab

*Re: PDN - Paladin Resources*



			
				fma007 said:
			
		

> down again.. and dragging other u stocks down. a spot price increase would be very nice to get things moving again or else we have to wait until march for some action



Yes that is what I am thinking too or maybe a good announcement


----------



## Fab

*Re: PDN - Paladin Resources*

Can anyone make sense of the today "Langer Heirich" announcement?? Is that positive?


----------



## lancer

*Re: PDN - Paladin Resources*



			
				Fab said:
			
		

> Can anyone make sense of the today "Langer Heirich" announcement?? Is that positive?




Fab,

I did not read 174 pages but I know thge first ann is good and judging by the stock being up 5% it must be good. Maybe someone who likes reading can help us out?


----------



## Bomba

*Re: PDN - Paladin Resources*

Comsec has approved PDN for margin lending at 40% for those interested.


----------



## x2rider

*Re: PDN - Paladin Resources*

Hi All  
They also had a 4% rise overnight as well. So it was easy to tell that they were going to have a better day than recent times. 
Anyway, reading gives me a headache. I'll wait for the DVD 
Cheers martin


----------



## Fab

*Re: PDN - Paladin Resources*



			
				x2rider said:
			
		

> Hi All
> They also had a 4% rise overnight as well. So it was easy to tell that they were going to have a better day than recent times.
> Anyway, reading gives me a headache. I'll wait for the DVD
> Cheers martin




What do you mean by 'They also had a 4% rise overnight as well' ??


----------



## champ2003

*Re: PDN - Paladin Resources*



			
				Bomba said:
			
		

> Comsec has approved PDN for margin lending at 40% for those interested.




Not according to their website so their is no margin lending from them for PDN at the moment. It would be interesting to see if it is added at some stage in the future though.

Cheers!

Champ


----------



## lancer

*Re: PDN - Paladin Resources*



			
				Fab said:
			
		

> What do you mean by 'They also had a 4% rise overnight as well' ??




He means in the canadian market www.tsx.com


----------



## Fab

*Re: PDN - Paladin Resources*



			
				lancer said:
			
		

> He means in the canadian market www.tsx.com



Thx. How often are the price refreshed on this website ? and how useful are the PDN Tsx price to give a trend to PDN asx price the day after


----------



## lancer

*Re: PDN - Paladin Resources*



			
				Fab said:
			
		

> Thx. How often are the price refreshed on this website ? and how useful are the PDN Tsx price to give a trend to PDN asx price the day after




Fab,

You have to refresh the website yourself. There is a 15 minute delay too. 

I also have a question if anyone can help me regarding the news release on asx vs tsx. Yesterday asx had 2 releases that boosted the PDN 6% but they never released it on the canadian exchange and the stock was only up 2% today (fri). I am thinking if they had released it on the canadian it would have pushed it higher. Any thoughts??

Thanks


----------



## lancer

*Re: PDN - Paladin Resources*



			
				Fab said:
			
		

> Thx. How often are the price refreshed on this website ? and how useful are the PDN Tsx price to give a trend to PDN asx price the day after




As for the second part of your question, I am still trying to figure that out. I am pretty sure they trade off each other kind of. In other words if asx ended a trading day at 8.50 then the toronto exchange would open at 8.50 (of course with the currency exchange figured in) but sometimes it does not do that.. If anyone can clarify how the prices trade back and forth between the 2 exchanges I would like to know for sure.


----------



## Fab

*Re: PDN - Paladin Resources*



			
				lancer said:
			
		

> As for the second part of your question, I am still trying to figure that out. I am pretty sure they trade off each other kind of. In other words if asx ended a trading day at 8.50 then the toronto exchange would open at 8.50 (of course with the currency exchange figured in) but sometimes it does not do that.. If anyone can clarify how the prices trade back and forth between the 2 exchanges I would like to know for sure.



Let's test the therory then. PDN closed 3.02% higher on friday at 7.850 Canadian $ what will be the opening on monday based on the PDN TSN closing price (I don't know the A$ vs C$ exchange rate?)


----------



## lancer

*Re: PDN - Paladin Resources*



			
				Fab said:
			
		

> Let's test the therory then. PDN closed 3.02% higher on friday at 7.850 Canadian $ what will be the opening on monday based on the PDN TSN closing price (I don't know the A$ vs C$ exchange rate?)



Actually asx will trade first they are ahead...But we can try it after mon. close


----------



## champ2003

*Re: PDN - Paladin Resources*



			
				Bomba said:
			
		

> Comsec has approved PDN for margin lending at 40% for those interested.




Sorry you were right. Comsec has added PDN for margin lending overnight.

Cheers!

Champ


----------



## bvbfan

*Re: PDN - Paladin Resources*

AUDCAD is about 0.91706, now divide CAD close by that will give you an AUD amount.
The only problem is some markets will pay a premium for a certain type of stock.
TSX seems to value Molybdenum stocks higher than ASX, whereas I guess ASX will value U stocks higher than TSX.

If you want to compare some ASX v TSX stocks
here are a few dual listed

AVM 
MOL
EQN


----------



## desyner

*Re: PDN - Paladin Resources*

Trader dealer gives 70%


----------



## Fab

*Re: PDN - Paladin Resources*



			
				lancer said:
			
		

> Actually asx will trade first they are ahead...But we can try it after mon. close



Ok. PDN closed at A$3.60 on the ASX today what will be the opening for PDN on the TSX ?


----------



## mmmmining

*Re: PDN - Paladin Resources*



			
				Fab said:
			
		

> Ok. PDN closed at A$3.60 on the ASX today what will be the opening for PDN on the TSX ?



Ask a monkey, and a drunk monkey


----------



## x2rider

*Re: PDN - Paladin Resources*

Hi fab 
The straight conversion is $ 7.90 Cnd so pretty much the same I would say. The driver will be if any info comes out over night that might push it up or down.  On viewing in the morning will be a bit of a guide 
Cheers Martin


----------



## lancer

*Re: PDN - Paladin Resources*

Looks like the little bit of news released is pushing the stock back up. PDN's chart is like clockwork for the perfect typical stock that goes up and pulls back a little then pushes up more. Anyone else notice this? I am not sure I have seen one that is more steady....Hope it continues


----------



## Fab

*Re: PDN - Paladin Resources*



			
				lancer said:
			
		

> looks like the little bit of news released is pushing the stock back up. PDN's chart is like clockwork for the perfect typical stock that goes up and pulls back a little then pushes up more. Anyone else notice this? I am not sure I have seen one that is more steady....Hope it continues




I noticed that since I bought it a year ago. It goes up and then consolidate and then up again by spikes. Also the news released today are very good as they now have a perm marketing manager who is commiting to the company. What else do you need.   I can't see why PDN would not continue this trend now


----------



## x2rider

*Re: PDN - Paladin Resources*

hi folks
Yeah fab it is a nice share to trade. Tonight will be good to see the reaction over in Canada. Mostly good news for the stock and is getting back to the all time high level. This wil no doubt prove some resistance again and could prove a chance for a quick short trade with CFD's. It has had a good run over the last few days so $9 and the chance of a new high might just be to hard to push through this time.
But hey I have been wrong before and will continue to be wrong in the future.
Cheers martin


----------



## barney

*Re: PDN - Paladin Resources*



			
				x2rider said:
			
		

> hi folks
> Yeah fab it is a nice share to trade. Tonight will be good to see the reaction over in Canada. Mostly good news for the stock and is getting back to the all time high level. This wil no doubt prove some resistance again and could prove a chance for a quick short trade with CFD's. It has had a good run over the last few days so $9 and the chance of a new high might just be to hard to push through this time.
> But hey I have been wrong before and will continue to be wrong in the future.
> Cheers martin




I agree X2,  PDN is probably my most favorite share for varying reasons, but I just got the feeling this arvo that the punters realise its price is "up there" now, and maybe aren't prepared to call it a "sure thing" as far as rising exponentially, at least atm.   The chart says to me its lost a little momentum, and for that reason I think it might drop a bit short term and bounce around in the $8.50 region till a bit more consolidation sets in .......... Probably depends more on the general market sentiment than anything else ......... Just an observation .... I could be totally wrong.    All the best to holders.


----------



## x2rider

*Re: PDN - Paladin Resources*

nice barney
I can see a nice trend that has formed from mid november and with the previous high is forming a a nice ascending triangle. 
I don't think the drop would be much either but I do think it will happen. If it breaks down through this trendline then $8 or then $7.50 will be the next support points . These can also be a point to exit the short trade and go long.

We'll have to see how it goes.  I know that it is looking  a bit top heavy at the moment, but with production up and running any rise in the price of U will have to see a rerating 

Cheers Martin


----------



## thierry

*Re: PDN - Paladin Resources*

CBA have put PDN into margin lending.. I am sure other ML providers will do the same, would this have an upward effect on the SP?(i.e more money to invest in the stock)


----------



## champ2003

*Re: PDN - Paladin Resources*



			
				thierry said:
			
		

> CBA have put PDN into margin lending.. I am sure other ML providers will do the same, would this have an upward effect on the SP?(i.e more money to invest in the stock)




This is all old news now as its been mentioned in earlier posts.


----------



## MalteseBull

*Re: PDN - Paladin Resources*

getting butchered today


----------



## Fab

*Re: PDN - Paladin Resources*



			
				MalteseBull said:
			
		

> getting butchered today



Not sure why so?


----------



## fma007

*Re: PDN - Paladin Resources*

Drop in oil price overnight imo


----------



## lancer

*Re: PDN - Paladin Resources*



			
				fma007 said:
			
		

> Drop in oil price overnight imo




It is not that. PDN lost 3% on the canadian exchange last night while I had 3 U stocks go up 6-10% each. I think it is still correcting from a great run. Maybe tomorrow we will find a increase in the spot price. I will post it if anything changes.


----------



## Halba

*Re: PDN - Paladin Resources*

does pdn produce oil?


----------



## Sean K

*Re: PDN - Paladin Resources*



			
				Halba said:
			
		

> does pdn produce oil?



 Gold


----------



## Kauri

*Re: PDN - Paladin Resources*



			
				kennas said:
			
		

> Gold




   It produces gold   ..

   Sorry, feeling in a silly mood today...  :silly:


----------



## lancer

*Re: PDN - Paladin Resources*



			
				Kauri said:
			
		

> It produces gold   ..
> 
> Sorry, feeling in a silly mood today...  :silly:




haha, pretty much gold...Produces Uranium. Some think lower oil prices equals lower Uranium stock price.....


----------



## fma007

*Re: PDN - Paladin Resources*

well, i say oil price drop is the reason because lower oil prices makes oil seem a more attractive energy source than uranium. Obviously does not translate directly into practice but in terms of sentiment maybe..


----------



## lancer

*Re: PDN - Paladin Resources*



			
				fma007 said:
			
		

> well, i say oil price drop is the reason because lower oil prices makes oil seem a more attractive energy source than uranium. Obviously does not translate directly into practice but in terms of sentiment maybe..




I do understand that, but what about the other near term U producers that went up yesterday and today? I would guess the whole sector would be down a lot if it were due to oil.


----------



## Bush Trader

*Re: PDN - Paladin Resources*



			
				lancer said:
			
		

> I do understand that, but what about the other near term U producers that went up yesterday and today? I would guess the whole sector would be down a lot if it were due to oil.





ERA is only off 1.8% and hardly off at all at 11:00 when PDN had dropped 5%,
interestingly.  This might be a pull back from "Hot Money Traders" as the charts are getting pretty steep.  (See attachment for analysis).

Is this a pull-back buy oportunity, or the start of an overheated correcion?  I would be interested in your opinion

Cheers


----------



## lancer

*Re: PDN - Paladin Resources*

Thats a good question, I would venture to guess its a small pullback, but if I wasnt currently holding I dont think I would buy yet...There has been a lot of good news out so far, the only thing I can think to boost it short term would be either:
Spot price increase or
Good news in the spring from the government (which I think more peole are already counting on)

Still a great stock that I am holding long term regardless of what it does now


----------



## scsl

*Re: PDN - Paladin Resources*

BT, thanks for the attached article. 

"$10 next month should be regarded a done deal" - wow, that's confidence!!


----------



## rederob

*Re: PDN - Paladin Resources*



			
				scsl said:
			
		

> BT, thanks for the attached article.
> 
> "$10 next month should be regarded a done deal" - wow, that's confidence!!



Although I hold PDN, I don't think it's good value at present prices.
If I were looking to buy into the stock, my target price would be $7.40 tho I would have 2 shots at it: First entry at $7.50 (to make sure I "got" some) and the remainder at $7.35 or less if a selldown was in the wind.
I don't think $10 is close-by and think April is a chance.
But as Lancer notes, a spot price hike could do wonders.
I think the real take off point will be when PDN has posted its first quarter results and we know what we are dealing with.


----------



## scsl

*Re: PDN - Paladin Resources*



			
				rederob said:
			
		

> Although I hold PDN, I don't think it's good value at present prices.
> If I were looking to buy into the stock, my target price would be $7.40 tho I would have 2 shots at it: First entry at $7.50 (to make sure I "got" some) and the remainder at $7.35 or less if a selldown was in the wind.
> I don't think $10 is close-by and think April is a chance.
> But as Lancer notes, a spot price hike could do wonders.
> I think the real take off point will be when PDN has posted its first quarter results and we know what we are dealing with.



I don't think there's many a time that I think PDN is not overpriced (if that makes sense). Yet I still go ahead with short term trades - for fear of missing out on the next big jump and/or going with the trend. So do you think the sub $7.50 level will come hand in hand with the next market correction? Or will it come off with other uranium stocks? PDN is such a favourite in the market that I'm always reluctant to take a short position in it.


----------



## Fab

*Re: PDN - Paladin Resources*



			
				scsl said:
			
		

> I don't think there's many a time that I think PDN is not overpriced (if that makes sense). Yet I still go ahead with short term trades - for fear of missing out on the next big jump and/or going with the trend. So do you think the sub $7.50 level will come hand in hand with the next market correction? Or will it come off with other uranium stocks? PDN is such a favourite in the market that I'm always reluctant to take a short position in it.



PDN will keep going up as long as the U price keeps rising. An important date is Feb 6 when Cameco the largest U producer will give an update on the flooding of its U mine and how long will be the delay in Prod. This could give another boost or burst to U stocks. So I am not too worry until this date and the alp meeting on mine policy in April will be an important one too. I hold some PDN warrant as I don't want to indeed miss the next jump in price as PDN typically moves by waves.


----------



## rederob

*Re: PDN - Paladin Resources*



			
				scsl said:
			
		

> I don't think there's many a time that I think PDN is not overpriced (if that makes sense). Yet I still go ahead with short term trades - for fear of missing out on the next big jump and/or going with the trend. So do you think the sub $7.50 level will come hand in hand with the next market correction? Or will it come off with other uranium stocks? PDN is such a favourite in the market that I'm always reluctant to take a short position in it.



Between last April and June PDN dipped over $2.00 from peak to trough - ie around $5.50 to intraday under $3.50.
If PDN repeated that movement it woud be possible to pick it up for about $7 within the month.
I do not suggest that PDN "will" get that low - but being alert to the possibility gives one a chance to either add at better value, or buy in with a degree less downside than there is to the stock today.


----------



## lancer

*Re: PDN - Paladin Resources*

I am supposed to get next weeks U spot price soon. Usually comes out in the next hour and I will Post it as soon as I know it. Hopefully this will help, I think we are due for a little jump. Trade tech was forecasting between 72 and 75 last week we will see if its true


----------



## Fab

*Re: PDN - Paladin Resources*



			
				lancer said:
			
		

> I am supposed to get next weeks U spot price soon. Usually comes out in the next hour and I will Post it as soon as I know it. Hopefully this will help, I think we are due for a little jump. Trade tech was forecasting between 72 and 75 last week we will see if its true



That will be great.


----------



## lancer

*Re: PDN - Paladin Resources*

This coming weeks U spot price will stay the same Unfortunately. Still at $72. I guess its better than dropping, I just think we are due for a little rise...


----------



## Fab

*Re: PDN - Paladin Resources*



			
				lancer said:
			
		

> This coming weeks U spot price will stay the same Unfortunately. Still at $72. I guess its better than dropping, I just think we are due for a little rise...



Thanks. I was thinking that indeed a little rise would have been good to maybe get PDN to the $10 mark.


----------



## spooly74

*Re: PDN - Paladin Resources*

Just my opinion, but I cannot see a rise in the price of uranium till there is an update from Cameco regarding Cigar Lake . . remember Cigar Lake was expected to produce up to 18 million pounds a year between 2008 and 2010....with grades up to 20%U3O8  
News is due on Feb 6th I think and hopefully its bad . . which is good for :aus: 
cheers


----------



## Sean K

*Re: PDN - Paladin Resources*



			
				spooly74 said:
			
		

> Just my opinion, but I cannot see a rise in the price of uranium till there is an update from Cameco regarding Cigar Lake . . remember Cigar Lake was expected to produce up to 18 million pounds a year between 2008 and 2010....with grades up to 20%U3O8
> News is due on Feb 6th I think and hopefully its bad . . which is good for :aus:
> cheers



Maybe spooly, but the uranium price really just depends on how much people are willing to pay for it at auction, from my understanding.

Also, everyone seems to assuming that the Comenco update will bring bad news on Cigar Lake. What if they say it's ahead of schedule to be fixed? I actually don't think this will occur, but it could. Just a thought. Not downramping here, just trying to give another take on things. I do hold a few uranium stocks myself...


----------



## spooly74

*Re: PDN - Paladin Resources*



			
				kennas said:
			
		

> Maybe spooly, but the uranium price really just depends on how much people are willing to pay for it at auction, from my understanding.
> 
> Also, everyone seems to assuming that the Comenco update will bring bad news on Cigar Lake. What if they say it's ahead of schedule to be fixed? I actually don't think this will occur, but it could. Just a thought. Not downramping here, just trying to give another take on things. I do hold a few uranium stocks myself...




I think it`s a given that they are going to be delayed but by how long? Initial estimates are for 1 year but it could be longer.
I just think that if *I* was a potential buyer for U  and in 3 weeks a potential producer of 300+ million pounds (19%average) of uranium will have news on delays?? then I would stay put for the moment and see what happens . . 
I personally dont think the price will drop even if the news is great from Cameco because there is still a strong demand for U. 
Over 450 nuclear reactors globally at the moment and the Chinese are planning  2 a year till 2020 (some of them 1000 Megawatt plants which will need 50000t of typical uranium each year to run)
I hold a couple of U stocks too and I think the spot price has a bit to go.
Remember the demand for uranium in the 70s was for weapons . . this time its for energy.
 
cheers


----------



## Fab

*Re: PDN - Paladin Resources*

It looks like PDN only dropped 0.65% overnight on the TSX after the big drop on the asx today that looks promising


----------



## reece55

*Re: PDN - Paladin Resources*

I'm not sure about anyone else, but technically here for Paladin I see a potential double top. Now, I do stress that these are always difficult to pick and can be a dangerous to trade, but if you are watching from the sidelines, below about 7.92 offers you a short trade to about $7 IMO. Of course, you would trading against the trend here, but I feel that, provided the break below 7.92 is triggered, we may see it fall to this area. It will be very interesting when we finally see the numbers from the Namibia mine come out in Feb?? (not sure of the date here, I presume end of Feb like every other company). I think the market has overstretched the fundamentals of the Company here, which is fine if the chart reads strength, but I think we are starting to see some weakness here. Could be   this be the start of a move down? Not quite sure we will have a bearish picture here considering the strength of the sector in general, but I think the probability of seeing a bit of downward momentum here for a patch is likely.

Cheers


----------



## rederob

*Re: PDN - Paladin Resources*

reece
I can't see PDN get short term traction without a price hike to spot uranium.
As these are "weekly" events, and this week will see uranium static, short term traders can safely lock in profits and park money elsewhere , maybe till next week.
So PDN will need a positive news announcement to kick it north in the interim ("luck" involved!): Prognosis of decline in price over the week is high probability in my books.
Longer term:
Cogema own 50% of Cigar Lake, and Cogema has long term contracts that will default on any prolonged delay of that project: Cogema is world's largest supplier of uranium to the energy industry (I think that's right?).
Although Cogema has force majeur and other contractual protections built into its supply contracts, it still may not want to default as customer relationships are paramount while the uranium price keeps heading north.
So I have a strong suspicion that PDN will, later in 2007, start to have a takeover premium built into its price.  Whereas presently it seems mostly to have a speculative frenzy driving it crazy.


----------



## 56gsa

*Re: PDN - Paladin Resources*

ABN Amros is not covering PDN now but did have a target price of 6.47 for it in Nov2006.  Below I have taken parts of their analysis and updated the u3o8 price with recent broker average price estimates for u3o8 from a eureka report.  ABN's provide the estimated % increase of NPAT for every US$1 change per lb.

496.2	M shares	 $8.15 	current SP

07F	08F	09F	
11	33	139	NPAT $m
0.022	0.067	0.280	EPS

49	53	58	US$/lb used in analysis
90	90	90	other estimates (per average of various brokers)
41	37	32	difference

8	5	3	% increase for every US$1/lb change in U price
328%	185%	96%	% change to NPAT
47.08	94.05	272.44	revised NPAT $m
0.095	0.190	0.549	revised EPS

85.9	43.0	14.8	revised PE
07F	08F	09F


What this all means I'm not sure?     I'm presuming PDN may continue to run up to production commencing when the inevitable technical problems dampen the price...  but if they do hit their targets / and the u3o8 price estimates are vaguely accurate ... you're currently buying PDN @ a PE of 15 in 3 yrs time... impossible to compare really but ERA is currently trading on a PE of 89.

For the 09F PE to be 30, current SP needs to be $16
If PDN shares fall to $5, PEs become 49 / 24 / 8

Is this useful or are there too many unknowns between now and 2009??


----------



## Sean K

*Re: PDN - Paladin Resources*



			
				56gsa said:
			
		

> Is this useful or are there too many unknowns between now and 2009??



No, this is great stuff, I think. Thanks 56gsa. (funny nic that!)

Now we can all look at some facts and figures and run away and do our own analysis. This is what ASF is all about. 

In regard to the pe's and their application in the future, there are of course many, many factors to be considered, but for ANY F/A, this is almost a starting point for serious discussion on the value of this stock. 

PDN market cap almost $5b! Why? 

Half the value of QAN?   

Let's see someone please justify this, more than what has been presented above.......

Great stuff!!


----------



## rederob

*Re: PDN - Paladin Resources*



			
				kennas said:
			
		

> PDN market cap almost $5b! Why?
> Half the value of QAN?
> Let's see someone please justify this, more than what has been presented above.......
> Great stuff!!



PDN has 2 other uranium projects on the simmer.
Factor these into the forward p/es!
Plus PDN is in a part of the world that is highly prospective, and allows mining starts with little fuss.
This places them well ahead of ERA.
Of course, very few people are thinking uranium prices will fall any time soon.
And remember that uranium only starts to look expensive after it hits about $500/lb - so there is some useful headroom.
Given this, PDN can probably continue to trade at a p/e well over 20 without worrying stock holders.


----------



## Sean K

*Re: PDN - Paladin Resources*



			
				rederob said:
			
		

> PDN has 2 other uranium projects on the simmer.
> Factor these into the forward p/es!
> Plus PDN is in a part of the world that is highly prospective, and allows mining starts with little fuss.
> This places them well ahead of ERA.
> Of course, very few people are thinking uranium prices will fall any time soon.
> And remember that uranium only starts to look expensive after it hits about $500/lb - so there is some useful headroom.
> Given this, PDN can probably continue to trade at a p/e well over 20 without worrying stock holders.



Thoroughly agree with the projects PDN have on the horizon. A couple are extremely prospective, especially the IUJV, when Labor change their policy. 

Putting a pe on PDN is extremely hazardous IMO, without further guidance on their future projects and how LH starts up. It will be extremely interesting to see their first reports out on production there.

Fully agree on the future of U3O8 spot prices mentioned above. Seems bound to go up and way out of the BFS perameters that PDN had in place during the ramp up to production. Certainly upside there, but has it already been factored in?

I'm a big fan of the U industry, as many would have seen over the past year, but I'm starting to feel things are getting overheated and want to bring some reality back to the argument. It's just hard to see where that reality is.

All the best!
Kennas


----------



## reece55

*Re: PDN - Paladin Resources*

Kennas
I'm with you here mate - this is a stock with so much going for it, but at a valuation of $4 Bil, are we not seeing all that and then some?? Only time will tell here. But the chart to me reads short term weakness, so thats my take. I also agree that when we start to see some figures from LH, the stock will be a little easier to gauge. 

Rederob, as I asked before on the Uranium thread, have you actually got any evidence regarding the fact that Uranium only begins to get expensive at $500? I really would like to see where you are pulling this stat from - if its true, then that is great for the industry. But I would like to see some objective evidence before taking that leap of faith! Finally, to say that PDN should trade at a p/e of 20 is a bit of an arbitrary take here don't you think. Remember, miners traditional trade at much lower p/e due to the risky nature of the business and you would have to say that PDN is in this boat. To me, PDN's valuation at present has no risk premium factored into it - all Kennas is saying is that he wants the sector as a whole to cool down for a bit to let the fundamentals kick in and either confirm or reject the valuation. I mean, if that is your take on PDN, then what is the value of BHP - $40.00??????????? Clearly the market is discounting them and clearly the market has liked the flavour of PDN - will this change, only time will tell.

Cheers


----------



## rederob

*Re: PDN - Paladin Resources*

reece
The sums on the $500 figure are a little "rubbery", but are based on the unit cost comparisons for generating electricity via coal/oil/gas versus a nuclear reactor (burning uranium).
Clearly with downward movement of oil/gas prices and coal prices staying much the same, there is a fair bit of "wiggle" room.
(Sorry I didn't answer you elsewhere, but I don't subscribe to the threads, and only read the ones that interest me whenever I return to this site.)
A for PDN's p/e - I think it's an irrelevance until we see 12 month's production: Everything until then is just a guessing game with little consequence. So I could equally have said 200 as 20 for PDN and in my view it would have as much value.
The one thing I can confidently say about forward p/es is that forecasters are so far out in general (for commodities) that it would take a brave person to use this indicator as a key tool for trading shares!


----------



## Fab

*Re: PDN - Paladin Resources*



			
				rederob said:
			
		

> reece
> The sums on the $500 figure are a little "rubbery", but are based on the unit cost comparisons for generating electricity via coal/oil/gas versus a nuclear reactor (burning uranium).
> Clearly with downward movement of oil/gas prices and coal prices staying much the same, there is a fair bit of "wiggle" room.
> (Sorry I didn't answer you elsewhere, but I don't subscribe to the threads, and only read the ones that interest me whenever I return to this site.)
> A for PDN's p/e - I think it's an irrelevance until we see 12 month's production: Everything until then is just a guessing game with little consequence. So I could equally have said 200 as 20 for PDN and in my view it would have as much value.
> The one thing I can confidently say about forward p/es is that forecasters are so far out in general (for commodities) that it would take a brave person to use this indicator as a key tool for trading shares!




I agree with this view. PDN does not follow any rational at the moment. Who knows where U stocks will go in the future I guess a good indication is the U spot price and this is not going down anytime soon as far as I know.PDN appears to be consolidating again around the $8 mark. When is the next big jump ?


----------



## Fab

*Re: PDN - Paladin Resources*

Probably not consolidating anymore. It is in jumping phase now. I am not sure I understand why so ???


----------



## Fab

*Re: PDN - Paladin Resources*



			
				Fab said:
			
		

> Probably not consolidating anymore. It is in jumping phase now. I am not sure I understand why so ???



Will it hold over the $9 mark? Can anyone explain why it is going so strong today.  There seems to be a trading range at the moment between $8 and $9


----------



## MalteseBull

*Re: PDN - Paladin Resources*



			
				Fab said:
			
		

> Will it hold over the $9 mark? Can anyone explain why it is going so strong today.  There seems to be a trading range at the moment between $8 and $9



all u308 stocks up today


----------



## Bush Trader

*Re: PDN - Paladin Resources*



			
				Fab said:
			
		

> Probably not consolidating anymore. It is in jumping phase now. I am not sure I understand why so ???




I hazard a guess at Broker Sentiment, this story may be of interest to you gentlemen.



> Paladin Considered A Better Option Than ERA
> FN Arena News - January 24 2007
> By Rudi Filapek-Vandyck
> 
> It appears that Cameco's pending update on what's happening at the troubled Cigar Lake project has caught everyone's attention these days. The share price of the world's largest listed producer of uranium recovered strongly overnight, though not enough to make up for Monday's losses.
> The question whether Cigar Lake will commence production in early 2009 remains an open matter until Cameco management comes out with a firm commitment. As reported previously, Cameco intends to release an update on the project before the end of January. On February 6 and 7 the company will report and comment on its December quarter performance including all operational matters.
> 
> The institutional desk at UBS suggests this morning investors may consider it wise to take some profits in Energy Resources of Australia (ERA) after the recent stellar performance which took the shares beyond $21 a piece.
> ERA, majority owned by Rio Tinto, is scheduled to report its final results for 2006 on February 1 but UBS says its practically impossible to calculate what the company's realised uranium price will be over the period. It is not the first time ERA is copping some criticism due to a lack of transparency. UBS believes it "seems sensible" to take some profits at current price levels.
> Upcoming uranium miner Paladin Resources (PDN) is considered a much better option this time around. Uranium is still a sexy commodity and Paladin's leverage to the rising spot price plays in its favour, UBS suggests. Paladin will update the market in February as well. (Our calendar says interim results on Feb 14). Watch out for management's update on the Langer Heinrich commissioning, says UBS.
> 
> Investors seem to have drawn similar conclusions this morning with Paladin shares up 3.25%, 28c, at $8.89 in a firmer Australian share market. ERA shares are only up 3c, 0.14%, at $21.23.


----------



## mmmmining

*Re: PDN - Paladin Resources*

Where is USB when PDN is just a few cents stock, and ERA a few dollars? 

It is very hard to pinpoint one, only one stock given the extremely speculative nature of uranium stock. Why cannot we have both? Why should we follow USB's magic wand, which IMO only benefit USB and its associates. Not you and me.


----------



## Fab

*Re: PDN - Paladin Resources*



			
				Bush Trader said:
			
		

> I hazard a guess at Broker Sentiment, this story may be of interest to you gentlemen
> 
> 
> Paladin Considered A Better Option Than ERA
> FN Arena News - January 24 2007
> By Rudi Filapek-Vandyck
> It appears that Cameco's pending update on what's happening at the troubled Cigar Lake project has caught everyone's attention these days. The share price of the world's largest listed producer of uranium recovered strongly overnight, though not enough to make up for Monday's losses.
> The question whether Cigar Lake will commence production in early 2009 remains an open matter until Cameco management comes out with a firm commitment. As reported previously, Cameco intends to release an update on the project before the end of January. On February 6 and 7 the company will report and comment on its December quarter performance including all operational matters.
> The institutional desk at UBS suggests this morning investors may consider it wise to take some profits in Energy Resources of Australia (ERA) after the recent stellar performance which took the shares beyond $21 a piece.
> ERA, majority owned by Rio Tinto, is scheduled to report its final results for 2006 on February 1 but UBS says its practically impossible to calculate what the company's realised uranium price will be over the period. It is not the first time ERA is copping some criticism due to a lack of transparency. UBS believes it "seems sensible" to take some profits at current price levels.
> Upcoming uranium miner Paladin Resources (PDN) is considered a much better option this time around. Uranium is still a sexy commodity and Paladin's leverage to the rising spot price plays in its favour, UBS suggests. Paladin will update the market in February as well. (Our calendar says interim results on Feb 14). Watch out for management's update on the Langer Heinrich commissioning, says UBS.
> Investors seem to have drawn similar conclusions this morning with Paladin shares up 3.25%, 28c, at $8.89 in a firmer Australian share market. ERA shares are only up 3c, 0.14%, at $21.23.




I guess that is a good article to show that there might be some momentum in the pdn uptrend past $9 which appears to be a resistance point.


----------



## Prospector

*Re: PDN - Paladin Resources*



			
				Bush Trader said:
			
		

> I hazard a guess at Broker Sentiment, this story may be of interest to you gentlemen




Cough, cough


----------



## ekman

*Re: PDN - Paladin Resources*

has anyone heard about paladin's heavy handed tactics as reported here: http://melbourne.indymedia.org/news/2007/01/137424.php
wonder if this is a storm before the calm if the mine is afecting the people in nearby town
one very good thing going for PDN is that the aussies do not live anywhere near their minesite - otherwise they would have to close it down even on the slightest whiff of things going bad for people living in the area


----------



## Bush Trader

*Re: PDN - Paladin Resources*

My apologies prospector, and ladies!


----------



## mmmmining

*Re: PDN - Paladin Resources*



			
				ekman said:
			
		

> has anyone heard about paladin's heavy handed tactics as reported here: http://melbourne.indymedia.org/news/2007/01/137424.php
> wonder if this is a storm before the calm if the mine is afecting the people in nearby town
> one very good thing going for PDN is that the aussies do not live anywhere near their minesite - otherwise they would have to close it down even on the slightest whiff of things going bad for people living in the area




Interfering other country's affair by a government and NGO is always bad idea no matter good will or bad will. The uranium mining could be big economy boost for Malawi. It is a developing country. They need food, housing, school... first before speculation the bad consequence of uranium mining.

But these governments will soon or later use its people as excuse to squeeze more blood from mining companies.


----------



## Fab

*Re: PDN - Paladin Resources*

Has the U spot price changed this week?


----------



## mmmmining

*Re: PDN - Paladin Resources*

Not yet. I guess it will be no change. A leading indicator U.TO, the uranium ETF price has pointed it out higher uranium price in near future. Just a matter of time.


----------



## Fab

*Re: PDN - Paladin Resources*



			
				mmmmining said:
			
		

> Not yet. I guess it will be no change. A leading indicator U.TO, the uranium ETF price has pointed it out higher uranium price in near future. Just a matter of time.



Thanks I noticed that PDN went up 1.83% on the TSX. If I go by that PDN should go higher on monday then on the ASX


----------



## drmb

*Re: PDN - Paladin Resources*



			
				Fab said:
			
		

> Thanks I noticed that PDN went up 1.83% on the TSX. If I go by that PDN should go higher on monday then on the ASX




Volume down on rise today on TSX - TorontoDN.TO Last Trade: 7.88, trade Time: 3:59PM ET, Change:  0.14 (1.81%), Prev Close: 7.74, Open: 7.78, Bid: 7.87, Ask: 7.88, Day's Range: 7.72 - 7.90 , 52wk Range: 2.49 - 8.30, volume: 1,119,137, Avg Vol (3m): 4,471,290  

I hold


----------



## lancer

*Re: PDN - Paladin Resources*



			
				Fab said:
			
		

> Has the U spot price changed this week?




It has not been released by trade tech yet, I am expecting it within 2 hours! I will update when I know.


----------



## Fab

*Re: PDN - Paladin Resources*



			
				lancer said:
			
		

> It has not been released by trade tech yet, I am expecting it within 2 hours! I will update when I know.



Thanks Lancer. I am not expecting any change either. The 2 next weeks will be very interesting for U stocks so with Cameco update expected.


----------



## lancer

*Re: PDN - Paladin Resources*

spot price is the same for the next week. $72


----------



## Fab

*Re: PDN - Paladin Resources*



			
				lancer said:
			
		

> spot price is the same for the next week. $72



Thanks Lancer


----------



## Fab

*Re: PDN - Paladin Resources*

As the market been updated yet on the Cameco mine flood ? It was due by end of January ?


----------



## Kauri

*Re: PDN - Paladin Resources*



			
				Fab said:
			
		

> As the market been updated yet on the Cameco mine flood ? It was due by end of January ?






> *Cameco had previously planned to provide preliminary capital cost estimates and timelines for the remediation in February 2007. However, the information will now be available in late March 2007* in order to incorporate the more detailed information compiled in the technical report.




   Full report here...  https://www.aussiestockforums.com/forums/showthread.php?t=5691


----------



## Kauri

*Re: PDN - Paladin Resources*

Watching closely... if the vol characteristics stack up may be, for me, an entry approaching...


----------



## Fab

*Re: PDN - Paladin Resources*



			
				Kauri said:
			
		

> Watching closely... if the vol characteristics stack up may be, for me, an entry approaching...



I am not sure I understand how you get an entry point @ 9.06


----------



## Kauri

*Re: PDN - Paladin Resources*



			
				Fab said:
			
		

> I am not sure I understand how you get an entry point @ 9.06




   Hi Chops,
   After the ABC the peak of what I see as a minor W1 is 9.05.. has retraced 50% to a W2 low of 8.52.. and may now be starting off on an impulsive W3... by waiting for a break of W1 and getting on @ 9.06 (*if the vol/spread is positive*) puts the odds a little more in my favour, sometimes...


----------



## Fab

*Re: PDN - Paladin Resources*

It might break the resistance today as PDN went up over 3% overnight on the TSX


----------



## Fab

*Re: PDN - Paladin Resources*



			
				Kauri said:
			
		

> Watching closely... if the vol characteristics stack up may be, for me, an entry approaching...



Kauri,

Did you buy it is now past the 9.06 mark ?


----------



## Kauri

*Re: PDN - Paladin Resources*



			
				Fab said:
			
		

> Kauri,
> 
> Did you buy it is now past the 9.06 mark ?




Yep,I bought back in... am expecting a bit of a struggle at this level as the buyers soak up the remaining impatient bulls from the last three recent highs before, *hopefully *, moving on.


----------



## goldilocks

*Re: PDN - Paladin Resources*

Uranium jumped up to US$75 overnight, as shown by Mineral Stox 
http://www.mineralstox.com/


----------



## alankew

*Re: PDN - Paladin Resources*

Goldilocks (cant believe I am starting a question in this way) when does this site update its prices, is there usually a long time lag?


----------



## goldilocks

*Re: PDN - Paladin Resources*

Alankew, I really don't know when Mineral Stox updates their U3O8 prices, but here are a couple of other sites that confirms US$75/lb:

http://www.kitcometals.com/

from the kitco site, is a link to this site:

http://www.uxc.com/review/uxc_Prices.aspx

The UxC site does state that their prices can be up to 72 hours old.

By comparison, the Uranium Info site, (http://www.uranium.info/index.html) still has the 26 Jan price of $72.  They seem to update their site weekly before Mon morning.


----------



## Bush Trader

*Re: PDN - Paladin Resources*



			
				Kauri said:
			
		

> Yep,I bought back in... am expecting a bit of a struggle at this level as the buyers soak up the remaining impatient bulls from the last three recent highs before, *hopefully *, moving on.




Why did ERA have such a strong day (5.36%)compared to PDN (1.22%),  this market makes no sence to me sometimes, urainiam spot up to $75!


----------



## Halba

*Re: PDN - Paladin Resources*

both look extremely over valued

why would u pay a premium of $30/lb for PDN over the life of its reserves. U is going to collapse around 2012, there too many projects around now


----------



## UraniumLover

*Re: PDN - Paladin Resources*

Wonder how high this is going to go after breaking through 9.00 resistance.
finally... Looks like the u increase  kicked in .   
Seems big = strong  in times of red with many other u stocks correcting big time.


----------



## drmb

*Re: PDN - Paladin Resources*



			
				Halba said:
			
		

> both look extremely over valued
> 
> why would u pay a premium of $30/lb for PDN over the life of its reserves. U is going to collapse around 2012, there too many projects around now




Substantiation please! Why 2012! Please explain!!!


----------



## mmmmining

*Re: PDN - Paladin Resources*

I have to keep informing people why PDN's can defy the gravity of falling uranium stocks,  because:

1  A near producer, considered can take to full advantage of rising uranium price;

2. Considered a uranium pick by almost broker house.

3. Picked by James Dines

4. PDN is invited to almost every uranium/mining conference in the world, making key speeches and promoting itself for free. The latest one is in South Africa;

5. Considered as take over target for CCO.TO to make up uranium production deficit because of Cigar Lake, or SXR for other reason.

But bewared, the South Africa's conference is over today. PDN's share price might be under pressure very soon.


----------



## fma007

*Re: PDN - Paladin Resources*

I think he is referring to the date that U supply will apparantly match demand - predicted to be 2012.


----------



## Kauri

*Re: PDN - Paladin Resources*



			
				mmmmining said:
			
		

> But bewared, the South Africa's conference is over today. PDN's share price might be under pressure very soon.





    Hi  mmmmmining,
                          How soon, and how much pressure do you reckon??
       Cheers
                Kauri


----------



## mmmmining

*Re: PDN - Paladin Resources*

Kauri,

I don't know. I cannot predict. It could be as early as tomorrow, could be next week. I hold PDN firmly without worry about daily or weekly share price movement. I just try to find answers for these do worry.  

Cheers.


----------



## drmb

*Re: PDN - Paladin Resources*



			
				Halba said:
			
		

> both look extremely over valued
> 
> why would u pay a premium of $30/lb for PDN over the life of its reserves. U is going to collapse around 2012, there too many projects around now



On the other hand - http://www.kitco.com/ind/Kirtley/feb072007.html Bob Kirtley February 7, 2007 www.uranium-stocks.net "We believe that we are looking at a uranium price of $200.0 plus in the near future. This will drive the price of uranium stocks through the roof and into uncharted territory. If you thought that DOT COM was a boom get into position and hang on for fortunes will be made, possibly exceeding those to made in gold and silver."

I don't know how reliable Bob is but there are obviously differences of opinion! I hold pdn and smm and shed a few tears yesterday when ags, bmn, and dyl hit the stops, taking a profit but may get back in when the u stock slide stops as I'm sure it will, imo, essential to *DYOR* etc


----------



## drama_queen

*Re: PDN - Paladin Resources*

Hi, I have $1000 to invest - I liked Paladin last year when I heard I think the director talking on TV about his mine in Africa and that Oz wasn't allowing any more mining leases.  I know little about shares or the stock market but used to look at this site few years back and was amazed at the knowledge you people have - and no doubt the money now!!!  

Have been burnt on my one and only attempt with Colonial (Global Managed & Global Technology).  Got half my money back and tried to invest in IAG with what I got back but missed out on all the shares requested.

Now I have $1000 I want to invest in something.  

The problem I have is - (among many others) - is which stockbroker?

Who will be bothered with $1000?

Any suggestions appreciated.


----------



## mmmmining

*Re: PDN - Paladin Resources*



			
				drama_queen said:
			
		

> Now I have $1000 I want to invest in something.




You just wasting us time!!! Oh, I am just kidding, since I am not a broker.

The only place for you is online broker. They don't care how much you have. But here is a few thing you need to consider:
A round of buy and sell will cost you about $60 (6% of your money gone)
Some broker charge you account inactive fee for your some holding with enough trading, it might be $25 per qtr. or $100 per year. (another 10% gone)

Commec might be the place with charging you inactivity fee.

Depend on your expectation of risk and reward. If you want low risk, that is low reward, with 10% average expect return from stock market, you better put your money on term deposit or something.

If you like high risk and high reward, you $1000 might be a the step-stone to super-rich with a serious of luck, such as:

Invest in PDN 4 years ago, and purchase 100,000 shares at 1c each sell it last year, and like the MD of CDU, purchase millions of the option of CDU last year at 0.01c?? 

But if you put your money in CRS, or SGW, you might never see it again....


----------



## j4mesa

*Re: PDN - Paladin Resources*

IMO, This share is just awesome........


----------



## Prospector

*Re: PDN - Paladin Resources*



			
				mmmmining said:
			
		

> If you like high risk and high reward, you $1000 might be a the step-stone to super-rich with a serious of luck, such as:
> 
> Invest in PDN 4 years ago, and purchase 100,000 shares at 1c each




I invested $1000 in PDN shares less than 3 years ago. 
This is a paste from the after market email I recevied on :

Fri 16/04/2004 12:59 AM

PDN    PALADIN    FPO           5,000        11.0       $550.00
PDN    PALADIN    FPO           4,000        11.0       $440.00

(I trade in 2 separate names)

if that was today's bundle it would be:

PDN    PALADIN    FPO           5,000        953.0       $48,000.00
PDN    PALADIN    FPO           4,000        953.0       $38,600.00


 Except I sold out but that is a different story 

I did buy in again at around $4.00 and will never, ever sell again


----------



## drmb

*Re: PDN - Paladin Resources*



			
				drama_queen said:
			
		

> Hi, I have $1000 to invest - I liked Paladin last year when I heard I think the director talking on TV about his mine in Africa and that Oz wasn't allowing any more mining leases.  I know little about shares or the stock market but used to look at this site few years back and was amazed at the knowledge you people have - and no doubt the money now!!!
> 
> Have been burnt on my one and only attempt with Colonial (Global Managed & Global Technology).  Got half my money back and tried to invest in IAG with what I got back but missed out on all the shares requested.
> 
> Now I have $1000 I want to invest in something.
> 
> The problem I have is - (among many others) - is which stockbroker?
> 
> Who will be bothered with $1000?
> 
> Any suggestions appreciated.




If you like Uranium stocks I suggest you do some research, there are many many cheaper stocks with huge potential but there are some that are duds too, there is U common everywhere it's just not recoverable. But I'm not a finacial advisor. You have to ask yourself how risk averse you are. If you would hate to lose even $100 then you would be better off investing i in a term deposit. if you could walk away if it dropped $900 then you could consider something speculative!  However, it would be a brave person to say put it all on ___ since if yo lost it all you could try to get it back from your advisor!!!! Good luck!


----------



## Kauri

*Re: PDN - Paladin Resources*

Is getting close to where a typical minor W3/W4 may occur, wouldn't be surprised to see a bit of consolidation??


----------



## alankew

*Re: PDN - Paladin Resources*

Any reason for the rise in SP this morning


----------



## imajica

*Re: PDN - Paladin Resources*

PDN has a ridculous market cap and forward P/E ratio

make no mistake - the uranium bubble will burst as quick as the I.T. one that preceeded it

its forward P/E is well over 50 now  -  insanity


----------



## mmmmining

*Re: PDN - Paladin Resources*



			
				alankew said:
			
		

> Any reason for the rise in SP this morning



Two near producers merged in Canada. or kind of SXR.TO taking over UUU.V. So only PNN, the another near producer left. Who will takeover it? Maybe CCO.TO

Since UUU.TO's operation is in central Asia, this news give a boost for MRO and CTS, two companies with Central Asia exposure.


----------



## Halba

*Re: PDN - Paladin Resources*

SXR's price went down a dollar, they paid too much for UUU only producing 1.8mil pounds in kazakh(sovereign risk)
i don;'t complain each dollar pdn gets overvalued, my banner man looks cheap


----------



## alankew

*Re: PDN - Paladin Resources*

Thanks for replies


----------



## lancer

*Re: PDN - Paladin Resources*



			
				imajica said:
			
		

> PDN has a ridculous market cap and forward P/E ratio
> 
> make no mistake - the uranium bubble will burst as quick as the I.T. one that preceeded it
> 
> its forward P/E is well over 50 now  -  insanity




This market is like no other and I dont think you can try and predict whats going to happen.  However I am not saying it wont correct sometime....


----------



## Bush Trader

*Re: PDN - Paladin Resources*

A raging bull is difficult to ride,  I would be interested in your feedback


*Consolidation Revalues ERA, Paladin

Source:* FN Arena News - February 13 2007 

Canada's SXR Uranium One has entered into an agreement to buy all the shares of Kazakhstan's UrAsia to form the world's second largest uranium producer by market capitalisation.

UBS analysts have crunched the numbers implicit from the bid, and arrived at a valuation of uranium resource of US$31.61/lb.
Australian listed exploration companies tend to trade at only US$16/lb, the analysts note, up from US$9/lb last year. But more important is the valuation implications for Australia's two uranium pure-plays (which are actually producing uranium), Energy Resources Australia (ERA) and Paladin Resources (PDN).

Applying the resource valuation implies a share price valuation for Paladin of $16.86. Equivalently, ERA would be valued at $44.04. Add Jabiluka, and ERA would be worth $100.
Food for thought.

Cheers


----------



## Kauri

*Re: PDN - Paladin Resources*

Looking for a minor W4????


----------



## barney

*Re: PDN - Paladin Resources*



			
				Kauri said:
			
		

> Looking for a minor W4????




Howdy K, I know very little about Elliot Wave theory, but always appreciate your concise charts. 

I agree that PDN looks set for  a slight retrace after another solid run ...... just wondering how much of this run has been caused by the positive press indicating an sp of plus $16 ... (those type of comments usually gets we punters "interested" ... and often burned; although I don't think anyone will get burned on PDN in the short-medium term) 

Today was a key reversal on solid volume. MACD looks a bit over cooked as does RSI I think a lot of holders are happy to take small bites out of PDN now it has risen exponentially, and we may see more typical chart patterns from here on  ....... $9 ish looks a solid support level ....... Of course it could just turn around tomorrow and belt past $10.50, but that would surprise.


----------



## Go Nuke

*Re: PDN - Paladin Resources*



			
				barney said:
			
		

> Howdy K, I know very little about Elliot Wave theory, but always appreciate your concise charts.
> 
> I agree that PDN looks set for  a slight retrace after another solid run ...... just wondering how much of this run has been caused by the positive press indicating an sp of plus $16 ... (those type of comments usually gets we punters "interested" ... and often burned; although I don't think anyone will get burned on PDN in the short-medium term)
> 
> Today was a key reversal on solid volume. MACD looks a bit over cooked as does RSI I think a lot of holders are happy to take small bites out of PDN now it has risen exponentially, and we may see more typical chart patterns from here on  ....... $9 ish looks a solid support level ....... Of course it could just turn around tomorrow and belt past $10.50, but that would surprise.




I thought yesterday that the share might drop to around the $9.40 mark
Someone else thought that might be a bit much and thought around the $9.80 mark.

Would it be too late to jump on board the Paladin crusade if i could pick up shares below $10?
Or maybe i should go for ERA if the sp is supposed to hit $44 mark....and beyond...(possibly) 

ps...going by those charts...am i right in seeing that when the Bollenger lines go far apart like this and the sp goes towards the "overbought" side, we could see a slight decline now?


----------



## Halba

*Re: PDN - Paladin Resources*

nuke come onto banner man


----------



## Go Nuke

*Re: PDN - Paladin Resources*



			
				Halba said:
			
		

> nuke come onto banner man




Yes ive heard alot about Bannerman..but haven't looked at too hard.
Would have to do more research on that 1


----------



## purple

*Re: PDN - Paladin Resources*



			
				Go Nuke said:
			
		

> Would it be too late to jump on board the Paladin crusade if i could pick up shares below $10?




Nuke,
You'll love these party spoilers (here's your chance!!)

Paladin Resources Cut to `Outperform' at RBC Capital DN AU 

By Sandro Bottoni

Princeton, New Jersey, Feb. 13 (Bloomberg Data) -- Paladin Resources Ltd (PDN AU) was downgraded to ``outperform'' from ``top pick'' by analyst Chris Lancaster at RBC Capital Markets. The 12-month price target is A$12.00 per share. 

Last Updated: February 13, 2007 10:27 EST 

Princeton, New Jersey, Feb. 13 (Bloomberg Data) -- Paladin Resources Ltd (PDN CN) was downgraded to ``sector perform'' from ``outperform'' by analyst Brian Christie at National Bank Financial. The price target is C$9.50 per share. 

Last Updated: February 13, 2007 09:34 EST


----------



## Go Nuke

*Re: PDN - Paladin Resources*

wow really
Maybe ERA is the better way...who knows


----------



## sleeper88

*Re: PDN - Paladin Resources*

ERA is locked into forward contracts, meaning they can't capitalise on rising U prices, i believe this is true for BHP's olympic dam production as well. Basically PDN is the only ASX listed company to benefit from current U prices.


----------



## Halba

*Re: PDN - Paladin Resources*

nuke come onto the banner man thread

http://www.bannermanresources.com.au/docs/BMN29Aug2006.pdf

refer


----------



## UraniumLover

*Re: PDN - Paladin Resources*



			
				Halba said:
			
		

> nuke come onto the banner man thread
> 
> http://www.bannermanresources.com.au/docs/BMN29Aug2006.pdf
> 
> refer



I agree with Haliba. if you look at the statistics _> go to to Bmn website and look at tolhurst research papers and even bmn threads you will soon realise Bmn is = pdn junior but at a discount. the  U are near the surface at good depth meaning low cost open cut mining is viable. I own both as i know this area is crazy when it comes to making money


----------



## Go Nuke

*Re: PDN - Paladin Resources*

thx for the feedback guys.
Ive checked out Bannerman on Incredible Charts.

 :microwave


----------



## Kauri

*Re: PDN - Paladin Resources*

This is *my* basic L plate E/W view on PDN currently...


----------



## Fab

*Re: PDN - Paladin Resources*



			
				Kauri said:
			
		

> This is *my* basic L plate E/W view on PDN currently...



I have no idea how you worked out this wave but 11.25 looks good to me. I have some pdnwmf that I am not thinking to exercise when they expire end of march instead of selling them. PDN is incredible. Probably overvalued but then what is being overvalued when there is such a shortage of U.


----------



## MalteseBull

*Re: PDN - Paladin Resources*

continual support on this one


----------



## fma007

*Re: PDN - Paladin Resources*

Yep - and should be a good end to the week with an expected increase in the spot price to $80 with the sale of some uranium.

http://www.theconservativevoice.com/article/22924.html

_"The weekly TradeTech uranium spot price indicator remained unchanged for a third straight week, but Tuesday’s sale of 100,000 pounds U3O8 could result in another record price spurt. According to Nuclear Market Review (NMR) editor Treva Klingbiel, “This lot of material represents an opportunity for buyers to secure material at a fixed price and is expected to be highly sought after."_


----------



## goldilocks

*Re: PDN - Paladin Resources*

U up to US$85.  A  $10 jump from last time.
http://www.uxc.com/review/uxc_Prices.aspx


----------



## Fab

*Re: PDN - Paladin Resources*

Good news keep rolling on for PDN:

http://www.mineweb.net/whats_new/636562.htm

Very smart move to be developing in U friendly mining countries like Malawi.


----------



## Halba

*Re: PDN - Paladin Resources*

seems extremely priced


----------



## purple

*Re: PDN - Paladin Resources*



			
				Halba said:
			
		

> seems extremely priced




nah, I don't think so, not as yet...
are we not in a Uranium boom atm?

the tech boom of old had most companies trading at PE's of more than 100..

history has shown that every boom (the rush for the New World colonies, the gold rush etc) has the ability to strip people of their common sense and turn them into bulls and nullify charts signals (if there were at those times).

The Arab markets 2005 boom had taxi drivers pouring in their hard earned money...and then losing it. IPOs caused punch ups :
http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=newsarchive&sid=aJIxwaurGu.s

The China market 2006 boom caused a stampede from every corner of the world...(although now corrected slightly). but now the momentum is gaining again...

it's been overused and abused, these words : Uranium deficit
i think the bull market still runs for uranium and PDN...well, will still run...


----------



## Halba

*Re: PDN - Paladin Resources*

5.8 billion mkt cap?


----------



## nizar

*Re: PDN - Paladin Resources*



			
				Halba said:
			
		

> 5.8 billion mkt cap?




If you wanna start talking market cap PDN was expensive at $4.
Expensive DOES NOT mean a stock cannot go any higher.


----------



## Prospector

*Re: PDN - Paladin Resources*

So now PDN have a takeover bid for SMM!  Seems SMM holders like it ( before the announcement, anyway - talk about insider trading  given its hardly moved recently) but PDN holders dont (again prior to the announcement!).  As a holder of both, what should I be feeling then


----------



## nizar

*Re: PDN - Paladin Resources*



			
				Prospector said:
			
		

> So now PDN have a takeover bid for SMM!  Seems SMM holders like it ( before the announcement, anyway - talk about insider trading  given its hardly moved recently) but PDN holders dont (again prior to the announcement!).  As a holder of both, what should I be feeling then




You should feel RICH i think both will do very well esp. SMM.
Actually PDN might ease a bit coz the holders mite think they paid too much.
But SMM will fly.


----------



## Halba

*Re: PDN - Paladin Resources*

Better for SMM holders definitely.


----------



## exgeo

*Re: PDN - Paladin Resources*

Short term, better for SMM holders. Long term, better for PDN who will end up being one of the few listed uranium companies with production and also a pipeline of proved-up resources ready to go once the regulatory climate changes. Anyone who listened to the interview with Mr Dines of the Dines letter on Minesite.com will probably agree with this. Basically, assuming there is a uranium supply deficit, utilities will be prepared to pay almost "any" price for fuel if the alternative is a $2Bn dollar power plant sitting idle. Expect more takeovers of companies with advanced projects or at the minimum, JORC resources (MTN, EME, NEL, CTS).


----------



## Sean K

*Re: PDN - Paladin Resources*

Any chance SMM will ask for more?? Seems like a pretty good price to me. Anything over 30% premium is VG.


----------



## exgeo

*Re: PDN - Paladin Resources*

I guess there's always the possibility of a bidding war. How many companies are there in the world with large resources, and still finding more? It's not like a company wishing to acquire resources can pick from the other 10 or 20 available if they miss out on this one.


----------



## Halba

*Re: PDN - Paladin Resources*

Fair price coz its a scrip bid. SMM holders will still participate in future gains.


----------



## Kauri

*Re: PDN - Paladin Resources*



 Just tidying up loose ends???



> *From the PDN ann..*
> Summit is a Western Australian based exploration company with interests in uranium, copper, gold, phosphate and iron ore exploration projects in northwest Queensland. The most advanced project in Summits portfolio is the Valhalla uranium deposit situated near Mount Isa. *The Valhalla deposit, together with Skal is part of the Isa Uranium Joint Venture Agreement ("IUJV"), of which Summit is manager and holder of a 50% interest. Paladin holds the other 50% interest in the IUJV. *


----------



## Sean K

*Re: PDN - Paladin Resources*



			
				Kauri said:
			
		

> Just tidying up loose ends???



It also tidies up the litigation between SMM and RSG. SMM were going to possibly have the right to acquire all the IUJV for 85% of it's market value. Now PDN will have it all.


----------



## nizar

*Re: PDN - Paladin Resources*

WHat is every1s thoughts of PDN now taking over DYL sometime in the near future?

This will give them ownership or all the uranium on Valhalla and Mt. Isa region.

Maybe a good chance to enter DYL today with a tight stop, it hasnt traded at 40c for ages (this year).


----------



## Sean K

*Re: PDN - Paladin Resources*



			
				nizar said:
			
		

> WHat is every1s thoughts of PDN now taking over DYL sometime in the near future?
> 
> This will give them ownership or all the uranium on Valhalla and Mt. Isa region.
> 
> Maybe a good chance to enter DYL today with a tight stop, it hasnt traded at 40c for ages (this year).



Possibility. Will they be stretching their bank account? Might have to bed this down first.


----------



## Sean K

*Re: PDN - Paladin Resources*

Well, now us SMM holders need PDNs sp to hold up for our $5.10 valuation to come through. $10.00 support for PDN at the moment, but momentum looks to be turning, or turned really. Support at $9.00 which will put our SMM shares closer to $4.50....  

On the other hand, if PDN turns around and keeps heading north.....  

I thought this was overvalued back at $5.00 ish however.....


----------



## Halba

*Re: PDN - Paladin Resources*

I dun think dyl has any jorc resources in QLD?  what kind of resources dyl has, seem to be subeconomic u spread out through namibia


----------



## Freeballinginawetsuit

*Re: PDN - Paladin Resources*



			
				Freeballinginawetsuit said:
			
		

> It bounced to $5.25 shortly after your post a month ago. Regardless of external issues.
> 
> The money made could have been put into Nickle/Zinc plays, they all subsequently ran in the following weeks.
> 
> You could have then bought PDN a few days back for $4.90 (it found support here) and punted on a break at some time in the near future.
> 
> Sure a bit of lucky news happened. Some news was bound to. Considering U at the moment and PDN clear objectives in the market and swallowing up the exploration plays, its quite obvious they are fast becoming a potential big boy!.





Seems PDN has had some clear objectives for a while


----------



## Go Nuke

*Re: PDN - Paladin Resources*

Sorry if this sounds stupid...but could PDN look at taking over BMN?

Being so close to their mine in Nambia?


----------



## Halba

*Re: PDN - Paladin Resources*

Hi nuke. pdn will only take over companies with jorc resources. bmn does not have a jorc compliant resource (yet).


----------



## Go Nuke

*Re: PDN - Paladin Resources*



			
				Halba said:
			
		

> Hi nuke. pdn will only take over companies with jorc resources. bmn does not have a jorc compliant resource (yet).




ok thanks Halba


----------



## Fab

*Re: PDN - Paladin Resources*

Sounds like buying SMM before the forecast policy change is a very good move by PDN now why did PDN share price go backward today?


----------



## purple

*Re: PDN - Paladin Resources*



			
				Fab said:
			
		

> Sounds like buying SMM before the forecast policy change is a very good move by PDN now why did PDN share price go backward today?




shareholders who thought it might not be a good buy. usually the case for takeovers. when ZFX bid for Wolfden, it dropped also due to shareholders thinking it was too expensive an asset to acquire.

nevertheless, PDN's upward trend is too strong. a slight dip below $10 and buyers quickly snapped it up again, it's back up above $10. 

PDN's boss John Borshoff is moving quickly to strengthen PDN's share of the market, and I applaud him..


----------



## Fab

*Re: PDN - Paladin Resources*



			
				purple said:
			
		

> shareholders who thought it might not be a good buy. usually the case for takeovers. when ZFX bid for Wolfden, it dropped also due to shareholders thinking it was too expensive an asset to acquire.
> 
> nevertheless, PDN's upward trend is too strong. a slight dip below $10 and buyers quickly snapped it up again, it's back up above $10.
> 
> PDN's boss John Borshoff is moving quickly to strengthen PDN's share of the market, and I applaud him..




I tend to agree with this comments. John Borshoff seems to know what is on about and U is for a sure winner for many years to come


----------



## reece55

*Re: PDN - Paladin Resources*



			
				Fab said:
			
		

> Sounds like buying SMM before the forecast policy change is a very good move by PDN now why did PDN share price go backward today?




Fab
It is not unusual for a Company making an offer for another company to decrease in value if the market isn't keen on the logic for the acquisition. Have a look at OXR  - AGC.

The other item is that the scrip offer is about 20% of the market cap of PDN. So if the acquisition were viewed in the market place as not value accretive, there is a lot of dilution for existing shareholders in PDN. 

My opinion - they have used an overpriced scrip (and in my view, a mega mega overpriced scrip) to buy an even more overpriced asset that will take years upon years to pay off. I mean the acquisition value is almost $1 Bil!!!!

However, like Kennas, I said PDN was expensive @ 5.5~, so who knows how long this madness will continue.

Cheers


----------



## Freeballinginawetsuit

*Re: PDN - Paladin Resources*



			
				reece55 said:
			
		

> Fab
> It is not unusual for a Company making an offer for another company to decrease in value if the market isn't keen on the logic for the acquisition. Have a look at OXR  - AGC.
> 
> The other item is that the scrip offer is about 20% of the market cap of PDN. So if the acquisition were viewed in the market place as not value accretive, there is a lot of dilution for existing shareholders in PDN.
> 
> My opinion - they have used an overpriced scrip (and in my view, a mega mega overpriced scrip) to buy an even more overpriced asset that will take years upon years to pay off. I mean the acquisition value is almost $1 Bil!!!!
> 
> However, like Kennas, I said PDN was expensive @ 5.5~, so who knows how long this madness will continue.
> 
> Cheers




It could also be considered that PDN is as overvalued as the scrip bid for SMM, all relative really. Maybe PDN know more than we do about SMM's real worth or maybe hype in the sector has expanded to 'U' company management.

IMO PDN's offer represents a premium bid for SMM and realistically they are doing fine with LH and K in the short term and should have let the 'U' market settle on the explorers for a while, they have enough on their plate and are the box seat player ATM.


----------



## reece55

*Re: PDN - Paladin Resources*



			
				Freeballinginawetsuit said:
			
		

> It could also be considered that PDN is as overvalued as the scrip bid for SMM, all relative really. Maybe PDN know more than we do about SMM's real worth or maybe hype in the sector has expanded to 'U' company management.
> 
> IMO PDN's offer represents a premium bid for SMM and realistically they are doing fine with LH and K in the short term and should have let the 'U' market settle on the explorers for a while, they have enough on their plate and are the box seat player ATM.




Good points freeball........

That is really my assessment - I mean, before any of the cash flow settles from LH and K is coming on board, why would they go and do this, IMO it isn't a good strategic decision............. 

Whilst they may see something in SMM that we don't, there would definitely be an element of U fever from management here - I reckon they are doing it to be one of the first movers on consolidation in the sector. I am sure thats how their advisers would have sold it to them anyway!

However, I do stress that in the end, if everything comes on board (i.e. continued rise in Uranium price, change in mine policy, stock prices that just keep rising) it could be excellent for all concerned. But that is an awful lot of "ifs".

Cheers


----------



## Freeballinginawetsuit

*Re: PDN - Paladin Resources*



			
				reece55 said:
			
		

> Good points freeball........
> 
> That is really my assessment - I mean, before any of the cash flow settles from LH and K is coming on board, why would they go and do this, IMO it isn't a good strategic decision.............
> 
> Whilst they may see something in SMM that we don't, there would definitely be an element of U fever from management here - I reckon they are doing it to be one of the first movers on consolidation in the sector. I am sure thats how their advisers would have sold it to them anyway!
> 
> However, I do stress that in the end, if everything comes on board (i.e. continued rise in Uranium price, change in mine policy, stock prices that just keep rising) it could be excellent for all concerned. But that is an awful lot of "ifs".
> 
> Cheers




I totally agree with your points on PDN from a trading perspective Reece, long term for PDN the 'if' scenario seems to be their midas touch.

Digressing a bit, my original intro to PDN came from my Father. A great bloke who was the largest influence on my life, views, perceptions etc. Dad had a business up North during BHP and HI's early days called standard telephone communications (STC) which was responsable for all the two way radio setups at Tom Price, Newman,Headland, Karatha,Shay Gap in the early days in the Jap boom.

I remember particularily most of Dads views on business/commodities etc. He used to rattle on about lots of things to me when I was only a young un. A classic would be trying to explain how phones would one day be mobile like two way's bouncing the signal of base stations in a network spanning the country. Lol.....it happened  .

Dad was an investor in the stockmarket,trading and long term holds. As an immigrant from Europe he was always a proponent of Nuclear Power/Long term energy concerns worldwide etc. Dad died a few years back with Mum left with the property and usual things, my sister and I were left with his shares. My sister has long sold hers and put to good use on her home etc and schooling for her kids. I was always a worker (had some bucks) and had little need to cash in dads shares.........moreso for the fact that they were something that reminded me of him and his decisions....a memory.  

Most of the shares were blue chips, a few were trading punts.......PDN being one. Now over the past 3 years since trading/investing myself I have traded PDN quite a few times......for modest gains, but never as much as just the sit and hold mentality would have achieved !.

Anyway I still have dads original shares in PDN, there worth more than any share or singular physical asset I own (by a long shot)......dad was right  . I often joke with my Sis about it......she dosen't see the humorous side though.

Anyway who knows with PDN what the future beholds, but if the past is anything to go by its bright, Borshof is a man with foresight and excellant business savy!.


----------



## Fab

*Re: PDN - Paladin Resources*



			
				Freeballinginawetsuit said:
			
		

> I totally agree with your points on PDN from a trading perspective Reece, long term for PDN the 'if' scenario seems to be their midas touch.
> 
> Digressing a bit, my original intro to PDN came from my Father. A great bloke who was the largest influence on my life, views, perceptions etc. Dad had a business up North during BHP and HI's early days called standard telephone communications (STC) which was responsable for all the two way radio setups at Tom Price, Newman,Headland, Karatha,Shay Gap in the early days in the Jap boom.
> 
> I remember particularily most of Dads views on business/commodities etc. He used to rattle on about lots of things to me when I was only a young un. A classic would be trying to explain how phones would one day be mobile like two way's bouncing the signal of base stations in a network spanning the country. Lol.....it happened  .
> 
> Dad was an investor in the stockmarket,trading and long term holds. As an immigrant from Europe he was always a proponent of Nuclear Power/Long term energy concerns worldwide etc. Dad died a few years back with Mum left with the property and usual things, my sister and I were left with his shares. My sister has long sold hers and put to good use on her home etc and schooling for her kids. I was always a worker (had some bucks) and had little need to cash in dads shares.........moreso for the fact that they were something that reminded me of him and his decisions....a memory.
> 
> Most of the shares were blue chips, a few were trading punts.......PDN being one. Now over the past 3 years since trading/investing myself I have traded PDN quite a few times......for modest gains, but never as much as just the sit and hold mentality would have achieved !.
> 
> Anyway I still have dads original shares in PDN, there worth more than any share or singular physical asset I own (by a long shot)......dad was right  . I often joke with my Sis about it......she dosen't see the humorous side though.
> 
> Anyway who knows with PDN what the future beholds, but if the past is anything to go by its bright, Borshof is a man with foresight and excellant business savy!.




I agree with regards to Borshof in the meantime PDN is being dumped on the TSX .-6% as I speak


----------



## lancer

*Re: PDN - Paladin Resources*

-6%? I wish, ended up down 10%....And that was one that wasnt too harsh compared to some of my other ones...


----------



## nizar

*Re: PDN - Paladin Resources*

PDN getting bought up again now.
Making new highs for the day.

Time to get in?


----------



## Freeballinginawetsuit

*Re: PDN - Paladin Resources*

I'll sit and watch for a while yet Nizar, plenty of room for crew still to cut clean profits on this one.

Support around 7.30 ish from past price action


----------



## Halba

*Re: PDN - Paladin Resources*

Paladin will have to issue another 100million shares for SMM.

I wouldn't be buying this anytime soon.


----------



## Caliente

*Re: PDN - Paladin Resources*

Hey nizar. I did. One of the better bargains of the morning for my money.


----------



## nizar

*Re: PDN - Paladin Resources*



			
				Caliente said:
			
		

> Hey nizar. I did. One of the better bargains of the morning for my money.




Nice one.
Your brave. But thats how you make money.

I bought PDN after May correction at $3.75 ($3.53 was the bottom). The rebound was great 

I think every1 knows how well this rebounds now. Didnt stay under $9 for long this morning.

I wonder who was the champion that bought at $8.50.


----------



## the barry

*Re: PDN - Paladin Resources*

I got 8,000 at 8.60, boo yeah. Also bought 10 grands worth of indice calls when the market was 200 points down. Bring on the recovery!!! Makes up for the 30 percent loss in my portfolio, have a margin call  level of 60, got to 59.80. Thank god for the bounce back.


----------



## 56gsa

*Re: PDN - Paladin Resources*

In ST why buy pdn when u can buy pdn thru smm + have possible additional benefits....

scenarios (please add more):

PDN pull bid (PDN holders benefit relative to SMM)
PDN have to improve offer eg add cash payment (SMM holders benefit)
new bidder / white knight for SMM (SMM benefit)
PDN successful (PDN shares/cash? diluted by SMM issue => SMM benefit)

seems the odds are stacked in SMM holders favour in the ST?

LT of course PDN still a great buy at these levels imo


----------



## Bush Trader

*Re: PDN - Paladin Resources*



			
				56gsa said:
			
		

> In ST why buy pdn when u can buy pdn thru smm + have possible additional benefits....
> 
> scenarios (please add more):
> 
> PDN pull bid (PDN holders benefit relative to SMM)
> PDN have to improve offer eg add cash payment (SMM holders benefit)
> new bidder / white knight for SMM (SMM benefit)
> PDN successful (PDN shares/cash? diluted by SMM issue => SMM benefit)
> 
> seems the odds are stacked in SMM holders favour in the ST?
> 
> LT of course PDN still a great buy at these levels imo




Excellent point.

Cheers


----------



## Fab

*Re: PDN - Paladin Resources*



			
				Bush Trader said:
			
		

> Excellent point.
> 
> Cheers



Indeed I have to say this is a good point.


----------



## Fab

*Re: PDN - Paladin Resources*



			
				Bush Trader said:
			
		

> Excellent point.
> 
> Cheers



Indeed I have to say this is a good point


----------



## Halba

*Re: PDN - Paladin Resources*

56gsa:

on the negative

PDN bid lapses/SMM reject bid. SMM goes back to around $4.20. 

PDN walks away, deciding not worth it to pursue. PDN finds other african projects and PDN SP goes to $12

SMM jorcs disappoint, and smm progresses slowly towards development(as per the slow bludgy aussie way) and price does little.


----------



## 56gsa

*Re: PDN - Paladin Resources*

Halba

I would include your first two under my first point - we should also add that if the PDN conditions aren't met this will make bid lapse as well

although SMM rejecting the bid is a given - its about how PDN respond ... i don't they are just going to pack their bags 

SMM JORCs not really relevant unless PDNs due diligence finds gross inaccuracies and they pull bid?  

this still leaves things in SMM holders favour in ST

$12 for PDN in MT entirely possible with or without new takeover


----------



## barney

*Re: PDN - Paladin Resources*



			
				Halba said:
			
		

> 56gsa:
> 
> on the negative
> 
> PDN bid lapses/SMM reject bid. SMM goes back to around $4.20.
> 
> PDN walks away, deciding not worth it to pursue. PDN finds other african projects and PDN SP goes to $12
> 
> SMM jorcs disappoint, and smm progresses slowly towards development(as per the slow bludgy aussie way) and price does little.




Howdy H,  And Summit have made it quite clear they are not over keen at this stage, although the shareholders seem keen to sell at a nice profit atm, and who can blame them  ............. for those who have not seen this news report ............... (The last sentence may be prophetic in the months to come )


Paladin likely to take SummitBy Robin Bromby
February 28, 2007 12:00am

ALAN Eggers looks likely to lose control of his uranium explorer Summit Resources to Paladin - but he was making clear last night that he won't go down without a fight.

He told shareholders to ignore any communication from Paladin Resources, which yesterday launched a hostile $1.01 billion scrip offer for his company, a move that would give it full control of Queensland's two most advanced uranium deposits, near Mt Isa. 

But despite the advice to do nothing, shareholders were taking the money and running yesterday as Summit shares soared $1.12 to the offer price of $5.12. 

And no wonder: the Paladin offer of one of its shares for every 2.04 Summit shares prices Summit at $US27 a pound of uranium in the ground based on the present resource - and that is not far short of the $US32/lb being paid in the takeover of Canada's UrAsia Energy. Normally there is a much greater disparity between Australian and North American valuations. 

Valhalla has a resource so far of 16,900 tonnes of uranium while Skal has been estimated from drilling to date to have 4990 tonnes. 

Moreover, the paper bid means those who don't sell will move from being shareholders in a company whose main asset is locked up by Queensland's prohibition on uranium mining to holding stock in one that is producing uranium in Namibia, will produce in Malawi from 2009 and has extensive deposits in other parts of Australia. 

Mr Eggers could hardly have been surprised. 

Paladin last year took over Valhalla Uranium, which was Summit's 50-50 partner in Valhalla and Skal. 

The move to mop up the other half has been widely expected. 

Paladin chairman Rick Crabb said the company had been busy getting its Langer Heinrich mine in Namibia into production. It felt free to move on Summit following last week's signing of a development agreement with the Malawi Government for its Kayelekera deposit in that country. 

Mr Crabb said Paladin had not spoken to Mr Eggers before launching the off-market scrip bid. 

"We didn't see any advantage in that," he added. 

Mr Eggers said the bid did not capture the full value that would eventually flow to Summit shareholders. "At this stage, shareholders should take no action, ignore all communications from Paladin and await our further advice." 

Far East Capital's Warwick Grigor, who has followed Summit and long predicted that Paladin would make this move, said it was an attractive offer. 

"It's a good chance for everyone to cash out," he said. 

Mr Grigor said this type of offer showed the bull market still had a lot further to run.


----------



## Fab

*Re: PDN - Paladin Resources*

I am a bit surprised that PDN is not boucing back strongly today. It looks like it is only consolidating when other U stock are bouncing back.


----------



## Halba

*Re: PDN - Paladin Resources*

I wouldn't cash out to PDN at all.

SMM will be worth a lot, and will bag as much as PDN at least as it is from a lower base? agree?


----------



## nizar

*Re: PDN - Paladin Resources*

PDN has great prospects with or without SMM.

This is from another board:



> Tomorrow, Cameco is expected to issue an update about the status of their flooding. Most are expecting it to be more bad news, so hopefully that should help boost Paladin and other uranium miners.


----------



## Fab

*Re: PDN - Paladin Resources*



			
				nizar said:
			
		

> PDN has great prospects with or without SMM.
> 
> This is from another board:



Tomorrow should be a big day then for U stock. I actually thought Cameco update was due end of march


----------



## nizar

*Re: PDN - Paladin Resources*

Fab,

I dunno if you are a member of HC but if you are how about you post that over there about Cameco announcement 2mrw, i dont like seeing PDN under $9


----------



## Rafa

*Re: PDN - Paladin Resources*

So if the article above is correct, PDN is valuing Summit at $US27 a pound of uranium.

That is rather rich!
what does that value some of the other explorers ONCE they get to JORC!


----------



## Freeballinginawetsuit

*Re: PDN - Paladin Resources*

Zilch if no one is interested in a T/O, and then they are left with the scenario of Cap-Ex themselves and further dilution..........fantasy stuff IMO. Much like the corner deli competing with coles.


----------



## Rafa

*Re: PDN - Paladin Resources*

Good Answer...
Thats why i am surprised that SMM is even valued at this level...

For an explorer, taking the effect of dilution, debt, not to metion the other risks associated with becoming a producer, IMHO fair value for an assest should be about 1/10 of market price


----------



## Halba

*Re: PDN - Paladin Resources*

"IMHO fair value for an assest should be about 1/10 of market price"

Have you read up that smm's deposits will continue to grow? The size/potential is large. Merely valuing SMM's assets on valhalla/skal initial jorc would be a mistake?

What about the fact that the uranium price will increase to over $100/lb soon?


----------



## Rafa

*Re: PDN - Paladin Resources*

I have no doubt PDN know what they are doing...
I was just pointing out just cause it apparently looks like SMM is being valued at 27/pound, it may be valued at a lot less than that by PDN based on their potential...

I was just thinking out loud, that if i was to buy an 'explorer' the maximum I would value them was 1/10th the current U price times their resource.

Now I may know their resources is a lot bigger than they've reported... 
Likewise, I may know that U price is going to go even higher...


----------



## 56gsa

*Re: PDN - Paladin Resources*

the numbers can be twisted to give you a broad range - 27/lb is probably the top - if you include the VUL takeover you get US$9/lb ... consider this from ABN

_Price ok, but doesn’t look a bargain
The offer values SMM at approximately A$1,011m or US$15.20/lb of uranium
resource (including non-JORC resources). We believe that this is a reasonable price when compared to the SXR bid for UrAsia at US$27/lb of resource. However it should be noted that current state government policy prevents the development of these deposits and should probably be at a discount to overseas companies. PDN will be issuing almost 20% more capital and get 20% more in the way of pounds in the ground. If we use the average US$12.20/lb of resource to value SMM we get A$810m (20% less than the bid). 

So on our analysis the deal does look marginally dilutive on resources.
Buying for the future PDN acquired Valhalla uranium for US$4.30/lb of uranium resource (including JORC and non-JORC resources) at the time. For the combined bids, PDN’s average acquisition multiple is US$9.60/lb for VUL and SMM resources. A successful bid would lift PDN’s resources from 253mlb to 306mlbs. However, as PDN noted in the offer, the acquired deposits are unlikely to be developed before 2010 or 2012 and, in the meantime, shareholders face a 20% dilution in earnings and will hope for a re-rating
on increased scale. We have maintained our target price of A$10.20 and Buy
recommendation, however we estimate the takeover would dilute earnings and
valuation - PDN appears to be buying for the future value of these assets._


----------



## 56gsa

*Re: PDN - Paladin Resources*

by the way, while ABN are using US$95/lb in their analysis, have a target of $12 on PDN, based on the lower end of a US$120 - 140 /lb flat rate price looking forward

are the brokers now getting the U bug too??


----------



## Rafa

*Re: PDN - Paladin Resources*



			
				56gsa said:
			
		

> the numbers can be twisted to give you a broad range - 27/lb is probably the top - if you include the VUL takeover you get US$9/lb ...




This makes more sense... $9/lb is more like a fair price for not being in production.


----------



## Fab

*Re: PDN - Paladin Resources*

PDN strongly down on the TSX overnight what does that mean for the asx opening on monday? Does it normally follow the same trend or is it different?


----------



## nizar

*Re: PDN - Paladin Resources*



			
				Fab said:
			
		

> PDN strongly down on the TSX overnight what does that mean for the asx opening on monday? Does it normally follow the same trend or is it different?




I think it will get UTTERLY DESTROYED.
In my opinion.
I do hold.

BUT wait - my stop will be hit (probably gap down below my stop dont you love that ) so every1 should just hold on for the big bounce that will occur shortly after I sell my holding, works everytime!


----------



## Halba

*Re: PDN - Paladin Resources*

Nizar tell that to the ppl who bought anything before the correction(utter destruction) or ppl who bought on friday any stock in the market (I bought 1)

 

Paladin looks like it is headed back to around $7.50. just not enuff earnings at this point to support the SP. Malawi not coming online for another 20 months; if earnings stocks are getting hammered, what about pdn without much earnings?


----------



## barney

*Re: PDN - Paladin Resources*

PDN comparable charts last 5 days and 3 months.


----------



## nizar

*Re: PDN - Paladin Resources*



			
				Halba said:
			
		

> Paladin looks like it is headed back to around $7.50. just not enuff earnings at this point to support the SP. Malawi not coming online for another 20 months; if earnings stocks are getting hammered, what about pdn without much earnings?




Well the chart says support at $6 at the 200dma.
Its moved back to the 200dma on the October 05 correction and on the May-September correction.
Just to show how much its run since October ($4).

I hope im wrong.


----------



## barney

*Re: PDN - Paladin Resources*

Canadian selloff may have had a little bit of "fiday itis" in it as well .... It did recover towards end of trade ........ If PDN keeps dropping (which it looks like it might a bit more), I'll keep accumulating. Long term investment opportunity imo.

Hey Nizar, try the 150 day MA, it will make you feel better .......... gives a reasonable support level of around $8 in about 1 weeks time ......... Cheers.


----------



## Sean K

*Re: PDN - Paladin Resources*



			
				nizar said:
			
		

> Well the chart says support at $6 at the 200dma.
> Its moved back to the 200dma on the October 05 correction and on the May-September correction.
> Just to show how much its run since October ($4).
> 
> I hope im wrong.



I see support at $8.00, $7.40, $7.00, $6.00 and $5.00. Might bounce it's way down. Really depends on overall market sentiment I think and when the ASX stops heading down. This could coincide with one of these support lines at which time it will bounce back. Maybe.


----------



## Halba

*Re: PDN - Paladin Resources*

lol its not going back to 5 dollars!!! Max $7


----------



## GreatPig

*Re: PDN - Paladin Resources*

Hmm... time to check out some Put warrants...

GP


----------



## Freeballinginawetsuit

*Re: PDN - Paladin Resources*

Puts have no place on this thread, neither does punting on how far the leveraged will be squeezed. Keep the muddying of the waters to the appropriate thread that is busy of late.

PDN may follow the rest on a spike if a squeeze eventuates........ if value is lost viciously/value will be found and found quickly on this one.

An opportunity may present, wont be the first or last for PDN.

Plain and simple!

Halba, PDN could quite easily go below $7, if your a latecomer trading this you should have been out after is stagnation on Thurs/Friday. If youre long with no more funds,it will just be an opportunity lost>nothing more


----------



## Halba

*Re: PDN - Paladin Resources*

Nup am on the sidelines for pdn. Dunno how to pick a falling knife?


----------



## cuttlefish

*Re: PDN - Paladin Resources*



			
				GreatPig said:
			
		

> Hmm... time to check out some Put warrants...
> 
> GP




Which raises a good point - why no ETO's over PDN - they're in the ASX top 100 and represent a sector that there aren't many pure plays in. What are the criteria for a stock being included in the ETO list.  I mean even CDU has ETO's over it.


----------



## Fab

*Re: PDN - Paladin Resources*

sounds like PDN will be a good buy very soon. Chart is showing that is being over sold


----------



## Kauri

*Re: PDN - Paladin Resources*

Based on my (very debatable   ) count PDN may be reaching the W(4) area,....


----------



## Phoenix

*Re: PDN - Paladin Resources*

Definately one to watch out for. I'll be keeping a close eye on this stock and dyl.


----------



## nizar

*Re: PDN - Paladin Resources*



			
				Phoenix said:
			
		

> Definately one to watch out for. I'll be keeping a close eye on this stock and dyl.




I agree.
Im not about to try and pick a bottom but i think when the tide starts turning those two PDN and DYL will bounce back strongly.


----------



## Halba

*Re: PDN - Paladin Resources*

I bought in and guess what. I've knifed myself!!!


----------



## captjohn

*Re: PDN - Paladin Resources*



			
				Halba said:
			
		

> I bought in and guess what. I've knifed myself!!!




Halba you'll do O.K. outa this ...in 3 months you'll wish ya bought more at $8-ish....
Think of those with CFD's that bought at $10.50 ...borrowing 90%.....& now getting margin calls .....  ....capt john


----------



## Phoenix

*Re: PDN - Paladin Resources*

Lol lol, as long as ya didn't buy on margin you'll do fine in the long run. Except of  course if labour is elected.....


----------



## Halba

*Re: PDN - Paladin Resources*

I bought 750 shares and already lost $300!

Whats going on? Its losing cents like a steam train.


----------



## Sean K

*Re: PDN - Paladin Resources*



			
				Halba said:
			
		

> I bought 750 shares and already lost $300!
> 
> Whats going on? Its losing cents like a steam train.



If you've got a long term horizon for these then relax. It's got great projects, U price certainly will test $100 this year, will probably get SMM for a song, with more possibilities out there. Either get out of the stock now, or think longer term I think. Testing time for all. Good luck!


----------



## nizar

*Re: PDN - Paladin Resources*



			
				Halba said:
			
		

> I bought 750 shares and already lost $300!
> 
> Whats going on? Its losing cents like a steam train.




Brother thats nothing especially for a big player like yourself!
I lost several times that this morning when PDN gapped down below my stop.
Serves me right trying to catch a falling knife.

85k seller at $7.50 - thats big bucks.


----------



## Phoenix

*Re: PDN - Paladin Resources*

Damn pdn is bleeding bad i'm thinking of buying in ???........


----------



## Halba

*Re: PDN - Paladin Resources*

It hurts coz I bought such a small amount!

Other than that the others I bought today held up fine: JBM and MRE.


----------



## captjohn

*Re: PDN - Paladin Resources*



			
				Halba said:
			
		

> I bought 750 shares and already lost $300!
> 
> Whats going on? Its losing cents like a steam train.




Halba, don't be a drama queen. You haven't "lost" anything until ya sell 'em.....
Just wait for 3 months ....trust me ....captjohn


----------



## Halba

*Re: PDN - Paladin Resources*

Agreed captjohn there are many more u projects coming.....I hear some goss.


----------



## Phoenix

*Re: PDN - Paladin Resources*

Question is that be to not or be too. I got 6 min to decide.....hmmm


----------



## svensk

*Re: PDN - Paladin Resources*

The low of 7.45, while shortlived, was very appealing.

Shame all my funds are tied up in the bhp buyback. Bah


----------



## UraniumLover

*Re: PDN - Paladin Resources*

Guys .. it's simple .. wait until the all ords bounces back 2 days + ..   I sold out with profit to attack it again.


----------



## nsitt

*Re: PDN - Paladin Resources*

Strange bid/offer atm. Must be a few ppl putting in dummy bids.


----------



## the barry

*Re: PDN - Paladin Resources*

If you buy in at these levels and are happy to sit on the stock for 6 months, I think you will be very happy. Highly likely to see further bloodshed tomorrow though.


----------



## UraniumLover

*Re: PDN - Paladin Resources*



			
				kennas said:
			
		

> I see support at $8.00, $7.40, $7.00, $6.00 and $5.00. Might bounce it's way down. Really depends on overall market sentiment I think and when the ASX stops heading down. This could coincide with one of these support lines at which time it will bounce back. Maybe.



again agree with kennas ... All shares should take into account all ords knife...
After all ords shows a bullish run i'm back into this with another 20 + profit margin


----------



## greggy

*Re: PDN - Paladin Resources*



			
				UraniumLover said:
			
		

> again agree with kennas ... All shares should take into account all ords knife...
> After all ords shows a bullish run i'm back into this with another 20 + profit margin



I don't have PDN, but its amazing how they've fallen.  PDN is set to become a major producer yet so many people are panicking out there.  Down the track people may well look on this period as a buying opportunity just like last May's correction.
DYOR


----------



## Sean K

*Re: PDN - Paladin Resources*



			
				greggy said:
			
		

> I don't have PDN, but its amazing how they've fallen.  PDN is set to become a major producer yet so many people are panicking out there.  Down the track people may well look on this period as a buying opportunity just like last May's correction.
> DYOR



Maybe Greggy, but as you would have seen in my posting in this thread I have always been concerned that the market caps of all the U companies were racing ahead of 'valuations'. $5 bil for a company that hadn't made a cent? It had to occur to these sooner or later. The larger falls in U players is just a reflection that they went up too much relative to the market. Maybe we'll find fair value for these in a few weeks time.


----------



## Halba

*Re: PDN - Paladin Resources*

a stocks value is the present value of future cash flows

what will pdn's cash flows be at say $100/lb u and higher? Very large i imagine. You get 2mil pounds for LH, 3mil for malawi, and another 1more from LH expansion. @ $100 thats atleast $250m net profit after tax. P/e is about 15 from here on in is fine. No value for other projects(overseas, africa) which i understand PDN are pursuing. 


Bear in mind no sizeable u production coming on stream until 2013 olympic dam. Even by then demand would be stronger so the u run can last for atleast 5-15yrs maybe more.  Other alternatives not as efficient. In short for u power u need yellowcake, and not too many suppliers out there. Auctioning process puts price up by $5-10/lb in one go. Imagine if more buyers enter... 

I bought a small amnt today @ 7.93 and am a self confessed uranium bull. I wish i had waited tho.


----------



## greggy

*Re: PDN - Paladin Resources*



			
				kennas said:
			
		

> Maybe Greggy, but as you would have seen in my posting in this thread I have always been concerned that the market caps of all the U companies were racing ahead of 'valuations'. $5 bil for a company that hadn't made a cent? It had to occur to these sooner or later. The larger falls in U players is just a reflection that they went up too much relative to the market. Maybe we'll find fair value for these in a few weeks time.



Hi Kennas,
A correction was overdue, but the pace of it has been a little surprising.  I'm watching this one closely as I feel that the uranium sector is just having a solid correction before moving onto new highs.  I'm just waiting patiently on the sidelines.  Since this correction commenced I've only bought HCY and am waiting on the sidelines for more opportunities. Despite what many left wingers are saying, nuclear energy will play an important part in the world's future. 
DYOR


----------



## barney

*Re: PDN - Paladin Resources*

Just my laymans opinion ............ PDN has risen exponetially, so there were a lot of punters sitting on good short term gains ............. with the current "scare" in the market, lots of those punters were not going to risk any further depletion of their winnings, and therefore sold out (and may continue to do so) and collected their cash ............. fair enough ............. but, those who are buying at the current levels will possibly be a bit more resilient to "selling out" in the future .............. I sold a few of my PDN today (leverage is a painful way to trade), but I also bought back more than I sold, ............... I ask myself; where do I see the sp of PDN in about 6-12 months     .............. I will continue to accumulate even if it drops to $5 ................even the very clever analysts at ASF will agree that shorting the market is "risky" ......... Why?? ........... because the market has an inherant nature to increase ............. What's really changed since 2 weeks ago when everyone was touting PDN as being worth $12-16 share?? ......... Only herd mentality following the "big players/mutual funds/whatever"............. I agree PDN may drop further ......... if you are trading it (not good) ........ if you are investing in the potential of a future "big player", I can't find anything obviously superior ....... (but I'm certainly open to suggestions     ........
All imo, ........ I may be deluded or talking jibberish (I have had a couple of beers to ease the days pain  ) ............ Good luck to all, Barney.


----------



## BSD

*Re: PDN - Paladin Resources*

The ASX uranium sector is the most ramped, most seperated from reality, most leveraged, most 'traded', most CFD'ed, most overvalued, most hyped part of the market. 

The market drops 500 points - the uranium sector is the worst place to be in such a market. 

Which sector do you reckon saw the most margin call related selling today?

It will be interesting to see how the 'hangover' effects the 'traders' when they wake up next to a whole lot of very ugly stocks with limited prospects of making money in the near future.  

Will they start buying again the next time the music starts or sit at home with burnt fingers focussing on quality?

It doesnt matter whether U trades at $1000lb - this sector is 98% hype. 

PDN looks a great business - but it is the bellwether of a sector I wouldnt buy with stolen money at the moment. 

Want Uranium exposure? 

Buy BHP - the hype comes for free!


----------



## barney

*Re: PDN - Paladin Resources*



			
				BSD said:
			
		

> The ASX uranium sector is the most ramped, most seperated from reality, most leveraged, most 'traded', most CFD'ed, most overvalued, most hyped part of the market.
> 
> The market drops 500 points - the uranium sector is the worst place to be in such a market.
> 
> Which sector do you reckon saw the most margin call related selling today?
> 
> It will be interesting to see how the 'hangover' effects the 'traders' when they wake up next to a whole lot of very ugly stocks with limited prospects of making money in the near future.
> 
> Will they start buying again the next time the music starts or sit at home with burnt fingers focussing on quality?
> 
> It doesnt matter whether U trades at $1000lb - this sector is 98% hype.
> 
> PDN looks a great business - but it is the bellwether of a sector I wouldnt buy with stolen money at the moment.
> 
> Want Uranium exposure?
> 
> Buy BHP - the hype comes for free!




Can't argue with your logic BSD, my point of view was very "layman" orientated .............. perhaps some of the fundamentalists on ASF could give an opinion of PDN's future worth from an investor's point of view (you around Freeball??)


----------



## Halba

*Re: PDN - Paladin Resources*

BSD any stock in particular, some are hyped I agree, but please give us some fundamentals figures to back it up.

Ppl are of the opinion that many u stocks are cheap e.g. BMN, MTN, SMM all on low EV/lb measures.

So am I missing something?


----------



## the barry

*Re: PDN - Paladin Resources*



			
				BSD said:
			
		

> The ASX uranium sector is the most ramped, most seperated from reality, most leveraged, most 'traded', most CFD'ed, most overvalued, most hyped part of the market.
> 
> The market drops 500 points - the uranium sector is the worst place to be in such a market.
> 
> Which sector do you reckon saw the most margin call related selling today?
> 
> It will be interesting to see how the 'hangover' effects the 'traders' when they wake up next to a whole lot of very ugly stocks with limited prospects of making money in the near future.
> 
> Will they start buying again the next time the music starts or sit at home with burnt fingers focussing on quality?
> 
> It doesnt matter whether U trades at $1000lb - this sector is 98% hype.
> 
> PDN looks a great business - but it is the bellwether of a sector I wouldnt buy with stolen money at the moment.
> 
> Want Uranium exposure?
> 
> Buy BHP - the hype comes for free!




You really need to do some research, their is a reason that that the price of uranium has risen to the levels it is at now. Why would you buy bhp for uranium exposure when they are locked into long term contracts at a fraction of the current price?


----------



## UraniumLover

*Re: PDN - Paladin Resources*



			
				BSD said:
			
		

> The ASX uranium sector is the most ramped, most seperated from reality, most leveraged, most 'traded', most CFD'ed, most overvalued, most hyped part of the market.
> 
> The market drops 500 points - the uranium sector is the worst place to be in such a market.
> 
> Which sector do you reckon saw the most margin call related selling today?
> 
> It will be interesting to see how the 'hangover' effects the 'traders' when they wake up next to a whole lot of very ugly stocks with limited prospects of making money in the near future.
> 
> Will they start buying again the next time the music starts or sit at home with burnt fingers focussing on quality?
> 
> It doesnt matter whether U trades at $1000lb - this sector is 98% hype.
> 
> PDN looks a great business - but it is the bellwether of a sector I wouldnt buy with stolen money at the moment.
> 
> Want Uranium exposure?
> 
> Buy BHP - the hype comes for free!



I think this is a little harsh ...  Look how much  Uranium shares have gone up recently? Even with this correction those who have invested in them for 6 + plus have still made phenomonal returns. Much better than most blue chip stocks like BHP which has exposure to oil and copper .. eerr .. Wait until the all ords recovers and watch how some quality socks like PDN , BMN, MTN destroy shares like BHP when it comes to profit margins..


----------



## mmmmining

*Re: PDN - Paladin Resources*



			
				BSD said:
			
		

> The ASX uranium sector is the most ramped, most seperated from reality, most leveraged, most 'traded', most CFD'ed, most overvalued, most hyped part of the market.



BSD, don't want to argue with you simple because the uranium stocks were beaten down currently.

Remember what I said today, if you don't have any uranium stock, buy some over next couple weeks. Then we can revisit this in about 12 months.

The whole stock market is hype, not just for uranium stock. I believe none in this forum will bury their uranium stocks with their coffins. You have a buy, eventually, you will have a sell.

When to sell, I don't know. But definitely it is not now. We have experienced this kind of correction many times before . I have to agree it is getting closer  to the top as time passed.  But just not yet simply because the spot and long term uranium contract prices are still going higher and higher. I repeat:

Supply is low;
Demand is high;
Global warming is real; and
Fuel cost is not import in nuclear power generation

Grabing a money making opportunity will make you much happier in the long run than laughing at beaten down uranium stocks for a quick pleasure.


----------



## Fab

*Re: PDN - Paladin Resources*



			
				mmmmining said:
			
		

> BSD, don't want to argue with you simple because the uranium stocks were beaten down currently.
> 
> Remember what I said today, if you don't have any uranium stock, buy some over next couple weeks. Then we can revisit this in about 12 months.
> 
> The whole stock market is hype, not just for uranium stock. I believe none in this forum will bury their uranium stocks with their coffins. You have a buy, eventually, you will have a sell.
> 
> When to sell, I don't know. But definitely it is not now. We have experienced this kind of correction many times before . I have to agree it is getting closer  to the top as time passed.  But just not yet simply because the spot and long term uranium contract prices are still going higher and higher. I repeat:
> 
> Supply is low;
> Demand is high;
> Global warming is real; and
> Fuel cost is not import in nuclear power generation
> 
> Grabing a money making opportunity will make you much happier in the long run than laughing at beaten down uranium stocks for a quick pleasure.





Exactly. I completely agree with that. I own pdn and taking the hit but no way I will sell now at best I will try to pick up some more soon.So It is definetely being oversold at the moment as the RSI is almost equal to 0. $7.50 could be a good resistance point


----------



## captjohn

*Re: PDN - Paladin Resources*

Dear BSD,

You can't beat it so you might as well join in !!
Yes ...Uranium is the flavor of the year &  for many more to come.
It's like getting in on OIL over 100 years ago !!

It's the future for polution free energy....etc etc.

Please ,please read a bit about just why it is increasing IN PRICE ..with plenty more to go.

I do have  PDN &  a lot of Bannerman  coz if you read the posts you will find out why..  generally it'll follow in PDN's footsteps & have an operating mine quicker than Australian miners.....and can sell at spot prices without hedging....
BHP is just too big & too slow to react .... & is under influence from too many analysts who are like a herd of sheep !!
 BHP SP goes up say, 1 %......BMN goes up 12%.....I know where the money box is ....so should you.
good luck with BHP,
captjohn


----------



## nizar

*Re: PDN - Paladin Resources*

In previous corrections when the XAO has shed 9-10%, high to low PDN usually sheds 30-40% eg. Oct2005: $2.50 to $1.50 (40%), May2006 $5.50 to $3.50 (36%).

Now we went from $10.88 to $7.54, thats 30%.
So cant be much longer to go. Maybe a buck more max.

But still im waiting for it to rebound before committing.


----------



## chris1983

*Re: PDN - Paladin Resources*



			
				nizar said:
			
		

> In previous corrections when the XAO has shed 9-10%, high to low PDN usually sheds 30-40% eg. Oct2005: $2.50 to $1.50 (40%), May2006 $5.50 to $3.50 (36%).
> 
> Now we went from $10.88 to $7.54, thats 30%.
> So cant be much longer to go. May a buck more max.
> 
> But still im waiting for it to rebound before committing.




A buck more?  If they go down a buck more Im going to have to atleast grab a couple of thousand.  Im watching.


----------



## falconx

*Re: PDN - Paladin Resources*

I am considering weather I should buy in or not. Anyone else bought in recently for the first time? I just have a slight feeling in the back of my head that I missed the boat on this one, considering the SP was 4 cents at one stage. Anyone here actually picked any up at 4c?


----------



## nizar

*Re: PDN - Paladin Resources*



			
				falconx said:
			
		

> I am considering weather I should buy in or not. Anyone else bought in recently for the first time? I just have a slight feeling in the back of my head that I missed the boat on this one, considering the SP was 4 cents at one stage. Anyone here actually picked any up at 4c?




Actual low was i think 0.007-0.008 (less than 1c).


----------



## falconx

*Re: PDN - Paladin Resources*



			
				nizar said:
			
		

> Actual low was i think 0.007-0.008 (less than 1c).




Fair enough, I was going by yahoos historical prices from here:
http://au.finance.yahoo.com/q/hp?s=PDN.AX

Edit: On closer inspection it does list them at 1 cent from around dec-02 til august-03.


----------



## Freeballinginawetsuit

*Re: PDN - Paladin Resources*

Hi Barney, 

Plenty of Supply all day for PDN and like most chased down in the arvo. Besides from a quick day trade on Thursday (waste of time ), haven't traded them since December.

Past key resistances for PDN were $5.20, $6.00, and $7.40......give or take a few cents. Price action between is just noise and PDN ranged quite comfortably between these intraday.

ATM theirs been a volitile move down and every chance that we might now trade between the range $6.80-$7.40. 

IMO tommorrow morning will blow off somewhere between this range. 

What sets PDN aside from another trade in the current market?  Lets not lose sight of these despite market apprehension. Realistically of what effect do recent events have to do with PDN's business interests or marketplace dynamics......zip really!  Just a cheaper entry. 

Its not like PDN hasn't ridden out previous cycles like the current one on several occasions since listing. Moreso until recently PDN was bagged by the experts as 'a never gonna happen'!


*Brief forward view PDN, 07/08:*

_Commodity:_ Uranium> commodity not influenced by hedge fund speculation> supply/demand positive> necessity> forward supply contracts with unhedged upside > global uranium supply deficit until 2015> PDN is a pure uranium play.

_Company:_ PDN is a Producer> Langer Heinrich 2.60mlbs pa 
15 + ML
> Kayelekera August 08 3.30mlbs pa
10 + ML 
> Langer Heinrich ST2 September 08 1.10mlbs pa
Potential PP 0.50 mlbs pa


_Exploration:_ Significant upside potential in key targets Manyingee Oobagooma
_Holdings:_ %EME/Bilygri Deposit/NT > High grade deposit with near term potential.
%DYL/Favourable locality to LH > prospective.
%SMM JV Vallhalla Skal/QLD/Commercial deposit near term.


*Short term Upside:* Labor Policy change Uranium Mining........it will happen. Will impact on Vulhalla/Skal and Blygri. Odds are in favor of a limited amount of new mines/miners. PDN is one of the frontrunners IMO-probably the frontrunner from a commercial perspective. 


Note: I do have a long Fundamental Position in PDN, held for a while and probably will take a trading entry tommorow...... DYOR and all the best tomoz


----------



## Fab

*Re: PDN - Paladin Resources*



			
				nizar said:
			
		

> In previous corrections when the XAO has shed 9-10%, high to low PDN usually sheds 30-40% eg. Oct2005: $2.50 to $1.50 (40%), May2006 $5.50 to $3.50 (36%).
> 
> Now we went from $10.88 to $7.54, thats 30%.
> So cant be much longer to go. Maybe a buck more max.
> 
> But still i m waiting for it to rebound before committing.



I am not sure where it will stop but U future has not changed and is greater at the moment with spot price forecast to increase. The problem is how to value a stock like pdn or other that have not produced anything yet.
UBS I believe has a price target on pdn of $10.20 therefore it looks like a bargain and oversold at the moment


----------



## the barry

*Re: PDN - Paladin Resources*

Presently 8.23, I wonder if we have seen the bottom of this correction for paladin.


----------



## Out Too Soon

*Re: PDN - Paladin Resources*

I missed out on this one before so I've bought some @ 8.02 today, O/S will decide tonight whether it's a long or short term investment.


----------



## greggy

*Re: PDN - Paladin Resources*



			
				BSD said:
			
		

> The ASX uranium sector is the most ramped, most seperated from reality, most leveraged, most 'traded', most CFD'ed, most overvalued, most hyped part of the market.
> 
> The market drops 500 points - the uranium sector is the worst place to be in such a market.
> 
> Which sector do you reckon saw the most margin call related selling today?
> 
> It will be interesting to see how the 'hangover' effects the 'traders' when they wake up next to a whole lot of very ugly stocks with limited prospects of making money in the near future.
> 
> Will they start buying again the next time the music starts or sit at home with burnt fingers focussing on quality?
> 
> It doesnt matter whether U trades at $1000lb - this sector is 98% hype.
> 
> PDN looks a great business - but it is the bellwether of a sector I wouldnt buy with stolen money at the moment.
> 
> Want Uranium exposure?
> 
> Buy BHP - the hype comes for free!



You said this sector is 98% hype.  Have you realised that the uranium price has gone up strongly during the past couple of years or have been sleeping all this time.  Your comments are all doom and gloom.  Clearly you don't have any uranium stocks and your comment "it doesnt matter whether U trades at $1000lb" smacks of inexperience along with naivety.
Many uranium stocks recovered well today.  PDN went up 65c.
DYOR


----------



## Halba

*Re: PDN - Paladin Resources*

lmao my 750 PDN buy yesterday is in the positive.

PDN is not for me! I'm not bothering with this share, too scary.


----------



## greggy

*Re: PDN - Paladin Resources*



			
				Halba said:
			
		

> lmao my 750 PDN buy yesterday is in the positive.
> 
> PDN is not for me! I'm not bothering with this share, too scary.



I haven't bought any either.  I was just commenting on the anti-uranium movement's supporters.
DYOR


----------



## Halba

*Re: PDN - Paladin Resources*

This share is like a frikkin heart monitor. I can't believe how ppl can trade lazy amounts of 10,000 shares without blinking? I guess the risk profile is not for everyone. I'll be out of this soon, I was never going to hold.


----------



## greggy

*Re: PDN - Paladin Resources*



			
				Halba said:
			
		

> This share is like a frikkin heart monitor. I can't believe how ppl can trade lazy amounts of 10,000 shares without blinking? I guess the risk profile is not for everyone. I'll be out of this soon, I was never going to hold.



Its been an amazing stock.  When people have tipped it to fall its seems to continue to go upwards.
DYOR


----------



## the barry

*Re: PDN - Paladin Resources*



			
				Halba said:
			
		

> This share is like a frikkin heart monitor. I can't believe how ppl can trade lazy amounts of 10,000 shares without blinking? I guess the risk profile is not for everyone. I'll be out of this soon, I was never going to hold.




If you leave it long enough, you might not be able to get out of this stock under 10 dollars. lol Only took a couple of days to drop to this level, might only take a couple to bounce back.


----------



## Prospector

*Re: PDN - Paladin Resources*

Scary it might be, but it is the share that has made me the most money.  I have been in and out of Paladin since it was 11 cents.  It has been quite a ride!


----------



## greggy

*Re: PDN - Paladin Resources*



			
				Prospector said:
			
		

> Scary it might be, but it is the share that has made me the most money.  I have been in and out of Paladin since it was 11 cents.  It has been quite a ride!



I have one thing to say Prospector.  Congratulations on having the nerve to trade this one time and time again.


----------



## Fab

*Re: PDN - Paladin Resources*



			
				the barry said:
			
		

> If you leave it long enough, you might not be able to get out of this stock under 10 dollars. lol Only took a couple of days to drop to this level, might only take a couple to bounce back.




The RSI was saying oversold yesterday. To me this stock is overpriced but then Uranium is definitely a commodity that will be very hot for a long time therefore I am happy to be in PDN for the long run. Another important thing about PDN is that they have one of the best U management team in the business so they know what they are talking about.


----------



## nizar

*Re: PDN - Paladin Resources*



			
				BSD said:
			
		

> The ASX uranium sector is the most ramped, most seperated from reality, most leveraged, most 'traded', most CFD'ed, most overvalued, most hyped part of the market.




Yeh - who cares.
We are here to profit from the market and those overhyped piece of sh$% stocks have given us plenty.



			
				BSD said:
			
		

> The market drops 500 points - the uranium sector is the worst place to be in such a market.




Agree. What comes up must go down. Apply stringent risk management and this shouldnt be a problem



			
				BSD said:
			
		

> Which sector do you reckon saw the most margin call related selling today?




The Uranium sector? I dont care. Those that trade on margin (CFD) need to understand the meaning of RISK. Whats your point, its the riskier sector, yeh i agree 100%.



			
				BSD said:
			
		

> It will be interesting to see how the 'hangover' effects the 'traders' when they wake up next to a whole lot of very ugly stocks with limited prospects of making money in the near future.




Almost all the stocks iv traded profitably have not made any money. AIM, DYL, MLS, PEN come to mind.

Im not saying in a bull market champion though. In fact even in this market i cant get R/R>50%.

But its a bullmarket so enjoy it. Trade whatever is going up.



			
				BSD said:
			
		

> Will they start buying again the next time the music starts or sit at home with burnt fingers focussing on quality?




I cant wait to start buying agaiN!



			
				BSD said:
			
		

> It doesnt matter whether U trades at $1000lb - this sector is 98% hype.




Does it matter if its excellent earnings and fundamentals that drive the share price, or whether its hype - either way you make money.

And i for one dont care if the share price goes up from fundamentals or from hype. Im happy to trade the price action.



			
				BSD said:
			
		

> PDN looks a great business - but it is the bellwether of a sector I wouldnt buy with stolen money at the moment.




Agree.


----------



## BSD

*Re: PDN - Paladin Resources*



			
				greggy said:
			
		

> You said this sector is 98% hype.  Have you realised that the uranium price has gone up strongly during the past couple of years or have been sleeping all this time.  Your comments are all doom and gloom.  Clearly you don't have any uranium stocks and your comment "it doesnt matter whether U trades at $1000lb" smacks of inexperience along with naivety.
> Many uranium stocks recovered well today.  PDN went up 65c.
> DYOR




Naive, inexperienced and doom and gloom - but is that worse than me having 'no uranium stocks'?

What other U shares do you own mate and how many of them:

a. Produce now or/
b. Have a bankable feasibility study and a legal project or/
c. Have a calculatable NPV or/
d. Have a JORC Reserve base or/
e. Have drilled a hole or/
f. Have more than $10m in the bank 

My point relates to the absolute bubble in the entire sector - PDN just has an element of 'froth' in comparison. 

Having done so much homework on the sector, what is your valuation of Olympic Dam's Uranium ?

Olympic Dam has proved and probable ore reserves of 761 million tonnes at 31 December 2004 at 1.5 per cent copper, 0.6 kg/tonne U3O8 and 0.5 g/tonne gold.

That is 456,000,000 KGS (not pounds) of Uranium and is still being increased. 

The physical uranium market is going to cop a wave of supply from massive projects before any of the speccys without a drillhole get into feasibility studies


----------



## nizar

*Re: PDN - Paladin Resources*



			
				BSD said:
			
		

> Naive, inexperienced and doom and gloom - but is that worse than me having 'no uranium stocks'?
> 
> What other U shares do you own mate and how many of them:
> 
> a. Produce now or/
> b. Have a bankable feasibility study and a legal project or/
> c. Have a calculatable NPV or/
> d. Have a JORC Reserve base or/
> e. Have drilled a hole or/
> f. Have more than $10m in the bank
> 
> My point relates to the absolute bubble in the entire sector - PDN just has an element of 'froth' in comparison.
> 
> Having done so much homework on the sector, what is your valuation of Olympic Dam's Uranium ?
> 
> Olympic Dam has proved and probable ore reserves of 761 million tonnes at 31 December 2004 at 1.5 per cent copper, 0.6 kg/tonne U3O8 and 0.5 g/tonne gold.
> 
> That is 456,000,000 KGS (not pounds) of Uranium and is still being increased.
> 
> The physical uranium market is going to cop a wave of supply from massive projects before any of the speccys without a drillhole get into feasibility studies




BSD - u do realise no new supply will come from Olympic Dam until at least 2010. Actually iv heard from some its 2013. What will the uranium price be by then?


----------



## Halba

*Re: PDN - Paladin Resources*

2014 nizar. Dam is subject to the usual aussie bludgin bureacracy n delayz.


----------



## captjohn

*Re: PDN - Paladin Resources*

Yes well said NIZAR.....obviously BSD has a lot to learn about trading stocks !!
It's just sour grapes from some people......I like talking to positive people with info. to add......
Anyway......I ,too also watch my live charts & the  RSI came up from 27  this A.M.  ....I'm well into BMN so used my CFD a/c to get into PDN at 7.75 ......
The thrill for me is a top trade..... low entry level ....then exit probably at $10.60 resistance level or whenever.
Hoping U.S. market will stabilize tomorrow.....
captjohn


----------



## 2020hindsight

*Re: PDN - Paladin Resources*

:topic  :hide: not sure if anyone's feeling like a happy hour contribution,  but I went looking for that old song "Paladin Paladin, where do you roam .... etc " you know the one "Have gun will travel" etc ??    

and all I could find was a heap of Chinese references to a superhero called Paladin.   I can only imagine Paladin shares would do well in Shanghai (?)  Here's an example   (lol - just the title , skip the rest ) 
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=YSMQmlJHscg

(reminds me of a song that came out in HK "the back side of your mind" - by the Chinese equivalent of Kylie Monogue - anyway - she had to re-issue it as "the far side of your mind" lol. )


----------



## BSD

*Re: PDN - Paladin Resources*

I give up 

I cannot argue with sentiment and bullmarket heros 

Unless anyone posts a view based on analysis of expected CASHFLOW I have no interest in dealing in this BS discussions anymore

I would hate to rain on any parades with my input of negativity 

Good luck guys

By the way - take a couple of thousand on Melbourne to win the NRL Minor Premiership this year

The 500% return is better odds than most U stocks offer with no prospects of cash in this decade


----------



## Halba

*Re: PDN - Paladin Resources*

Hi BSD. Somebody posted that Malawi, LH expansion will have about pre tax $500M USD dollar PRE TAX cash flow in total @ $85 U/lb. 

I can confirm that seems about right @ 7million pounds production (company guidance). 

Each $5/lb increase above that generates an additional 5*7 = $35m USD cash flow. Multiplied by a p/e of 9(average of a miner) thats an extra $300m odd mkt cap(or about 320M CAD) every $5 increase in the u price.

Additionally there are blue sky factors at work here such as additional african projects(brownfields) or SMM.


----------



## the barry

*Re: PDN - Paladin Resources*



			
				BSD said:
			
		

> Naive, inexperienced and doom and gloom - but is that worse than me having 'no uranium stocks'?
> 
> What other U shares do you own mate and how many of them:
> 
> a. Produce now or/
> b. Have a bankable feasibility study and a legal project or/
> c. Have a calculatable NPV or/
> d. Have a JORC Reserve base or/
> e. Have drilled a hole or/
> f. Have more than $10m in the bank
> 
> My point relates to the absolute bubble in the entire sector - PDN just has an element of 'froth' in comparison.
> 
> Having done so much homework on the sector, what is your valuation of Olympic Dam's Uranium ?
> 
> Olympic Dam has proved and probable ore reserves of 761 million tonnes at 31 December 2004 at 1.5 per cent copper, 0.6 kg/tonne U3O8 and 0.5 g/tonne gold.
> 
> That is 456,000,000 KGS (not pounds) of Uranium and is still being increased.
> 
> The physical uranium market is going to cop a wave of supply from massive projects before any of the speccys without a drillhole get into feasibility studies





BSD,
      The points raised are valid & I agree an available supply of Uranium will lead to lower prices in the spot price for Uranium. However the Resource has always been there at olympic Dam & yet the spot price of Uranium is at $85 dollars US.

I think you are suggesting that when these larger resources such as Olympic Dam start producing a larger amount of Uranium then the price will come down. I note you have researched the BHP website for your figures.

One figure/fact that you failed to mention was the dateline of the EIS study that BHP is doing for the increased production at Olympic dam. It will be decided on by ministers in 2008. Also this study is for the increase of copper production from 200,000 tonnes to 500,000 tonnes of copper a year.

So I wonder why it dosn't specifically refer to increased levels of Uranium, I would think that they would need to do a study on the EIS for an increased production level of Uranium. Considering the EIS for Copper started in 05 & is projected to be finalised some time in year 08 then it will be a while before Olympic dam produces more than the current level of Uranium.Also it is no certainty that the increase in production/EIS will be APPROVED. 

Also you need to consider the impact that the flooding will have on the Cigar lake mine owned by cameco. This mine was projected to produce around 8% of the worlds uranium supply. The mining process they have for extraction is extremely complicated. They havn't yet released a statement on the position of the mine, it will be released by the end of March, it looks like they will have a severe problem & will report that the mine is drastically behind schedule & may be a long time off production.

There are 5 reactors coming on line next year & 6 the following year. They need 2 1/2 years supply of uranium on site, this has to come from somewhere.
This all leads to a supply shortfall & no answer to meet supply anytime soon. Hence why the spot price is high & going to go higher.

There is no quick solution, I'm interested in your response.


----------



## nizar

*Re: PDN - Paladin Resources*



			
				BSD said:
			
		

> I give up
> 
> I cannot argue with sentiment and bullmarket heros
> 
> Unless anyone posts a view based on analysis of expected CASHFLOW I have no interest in dealing in this BS discussions anymore
> 
> I would hate to rain on any parades with my input of negativity
> 
> Good luck guys
> 
> By the way - take a couple of thousand on Melbourne to win the NRL Minor Premiership this year
> 
> The 500% return is better odds than most U stocks offer with no prospects of cash in this decade




Why do you think that companies have to be profitable for share price appreciation.. ?


----------



## mmmmining

*Re: PDN - Paladin Resources*



			
				BSD said:
			
		

> I give up
> 
> I cannot argue with sentiment and bullmarket heros
> 
> Unless anyone posts a view based on analysis of expected CASHFLOW I have no interest in dealing in this BS discussions anymore




BSD, you sounds like a priest try to convince ordinary man and woman not having sex. We are talking about sexy, sexy nuked uranium, Please stay away, it is a sin for you to even look at her.

One day, when I have a uranium mine by myself, you are the first person I might think to run it. I believe you will run it well as long as you won't blow away a few hundreds here and there on horses.

Seriously, you have only seen on side of the stock market, the business side, and totally forget about the side of speculation, adventure, and gambling.


----------



## Halba

*Re: PDN - Paladin Resources*

u = next dotcom, but with profits potentialz


----------



## UraniumLover

*Re: PDN - Paladin Resources*



			
				BSD said:
			
		

> I give up
> 
> I cannot argue with sentiment and bullmarket heros
> 
> Unless anyone posts a view based on analysis of expected CASHFLOW I have no interest in dealing in this BS discussions anymore
> 
> I would hate to rain on any parades with my input of negativity
> 
> Good luck guys
> 
> By the way - take a couple of thousand on Melbourne to win the NRL Minor Premiership this year
> 
> The 500% return is better odds than most U stocks offer with no prospects of cash in this decade




BSD - go and play with your grandpa BHP share. PDN is the closest thing to new u supplies and the world need's it bad as can be shown by U price increases. We are in the middle of an energy transition and this is where all the hot action is so we don't care about your proxy BHP share


----------



## nizar

*Re: PDN - Paladin Resources*



			
				Halba said:
			
		

> u = next dotcom, but with profits potentialz




oH YES "potential" - that word was used heaps in the dot.com days


----------



## It's Snake Pliskin

*Re: PDN - Paladin Resources*

I take it you guys are bullish?


----------



## It's Snake Pliskin

*Re: PDN - Paladin Resources*

There was caution to be prepared back in Feb!

Look a the MACD powering away with price (useless)
But the divergence with the other indicator....... 

Hindsight analysis yes.


----------



## chops_a_must

*Re: PDN - Paladin Resources*



			
				Halba said:
			
		

> u = next dotcom, but with profits potentialz


----------



## Mousie

*Re: PDN - Paladin Resources*



			
				greggy said:
			
		

> I have one thing to say Prospector.  Congratulations on having the nerve to trade this one time and time again.




Anyone who's managed to hold PDN from the time they bought in at 11 cents till now is the one worthy of congratulatory remarks


----------



## It's Snake Pliskin

*Re: PDN - Paladin Resources*

nizar


> Agree. What comes up must go down. Apply stringent risk management and this shouldnt be a problem




A nice big gap down and where is your stop?



> But its a bullmarket so enjoy it. Trade whatever is going up.
> 
> I cant wait to start buying agaiN!




Maybe it's time to get out.  



> Does it matter if its excellent earnings and fundamentals that drive the share price, or whether its hype - either way you make money.




At some stage the fundamentals matter.



> And i for one dont care if the share price goes up from fundamentals or from hype. Im happy to trade the price action.




What drives price? How many greater fools can keep it going? Without solid business to back it up where will it be?   
they all said this in the dot.com days, but nobody listened. Buffett did alright.

Snake


----------



## It's Snake Pliskin

*Re: PDN - Paladin Resources*



			
				BSD said:
			
		

> Naive, inexperienced and doom and gloom - but is that worse than me having 'no uranium stocks'?
> 
> What other U shares do you own mate and how many of them:
> 
> a. Produce now or/
> b. Have a bankable feasibility study and a legal project or/
> c. Have a calculatable NPV or/
> d. Have a JORC Reserve base or/
> e. Have drilled a hole or/
> f. Have more than $10m in the bank
> 
> My point relates to the absolute bubble in the entire sector - PDN just has an element of 'froth' in comparison.
> 
> Having done so much homework on the sector, what is your valuation of Olympic Dam's Uranium ?
> 
> Olympic Dam has proved and probable ore reserves of 761 million tonnes at 31 December 2004 at 1.5 per cent copper, 0.6 kg/tonne U3O8 and 0.5 g/tonne gold.
> 
> That is 456,000,000 KGS (not pounds) of Uranium and is still being increased.
> 
> The physical uranium market is going to cop a wave of supply from massive projects before any of the speccys without a drillhole get into feasibility studies



BSD,

Thanks for the information.

Businesses without cashflows don't last, and the share price always catches up with those who speculate, including me.


----------



## Fab

*Re: PDN - Paladin Resources*

In the meantime PDN went up over 10% overnight on the tsx. It should be a good day for miners and pdn today


----------



## Bush Trader

*Re: PDN - Paladin Resources*

Hello Holders

This chart is courtesy of the FNArena Tech Wizard.  He incidentally strongly recommends buying the dips.

Have a look at the action on the top Bollinger band; it can only mean on of two things, the stock is either overheated or extremely bullish.

I agree with BSD on BHP's U308 resource (hedged or unhedged), however wouldn’t they be better separating off the Olympic dam project into another entity, so as it could be looked at in isolation.  It is lost in all the other activities of this Giant.  Does anybody have any ideas on what it’s contribution is to BHP’s NPV?


----------



## greggy

*Re: PDN - Paladin Resources*



			
				BSD said:
			
		

> Naive, inexperienced and doom and gloom - but is that worse than me having 'no uranium stocks'?
> 
> What other U shares do you own mate and how many of them:
> 
> a. Produce now or/
> b. Have a bankable feasibility study and a legal project or/
> c. Have a calculatable NPV or/
> d. Have a JORC Reserve base or/
> e. Have drilled a hole or/
> f. Have more than $10m in the bank
> 
> My point relates to the absolute bubble in the entire sector - PDN just has an element of 'froth' in comparison.
> 
> Having done so much homework on the sector, what is your valuation of Olympic Dam's Uranium ?
> 
> Olympic Dam has proved and probable ore reserves of 761 million tonnes at 31 December 2004 at 1.5 per cent copper, 0.6 kg/tonne U3O8 and 0.5 g/tonne gold.
> 
> That is 456,000,000 KGS (not pounds) of Uranium and is still being increased.
> 
> The physical uranium market is going to cop a wave of supply from massive projects before any of the speccys without a drillhole get into feasibility studies



I stand by what I've said.  Clearly you don't like uranium at all.  Just look at my other contributions to find out what I currently own.  With the tone of your responses I would be wasting my time in responding to your question.
DYOR


----------



## Halba

*Re: PDN - Paladin Resources*

BHP is not valued fully because its production 15,000t is too low relative to its life of mine and also nearly a decade to proddy


----------



## nizar

*Re: PDN - Paladin Resources*



			
				Halba said:
			
		

> BHP is not valued fully because its production 15,000t is too low relative to its life of mine and also nearly a decade to proddy




Yeh could probably do 10,000tonnes per annum for 100 years!

Now heres an idea: why dont they spin off BHP Uranium for the sake of having the market value their uranium assets and production more favourably?

Uranium every1 wants. But uranium + iron ore + copper + oil + others maybe not so...

It could work??


----------



## sleeper88

*Re: PDN - Paladin Resources*



			
				nizar said:
			
		

> Yeh could probably do 10,000tonnes per annum for 100 years!
> 
> Now heres an idea: why dont they spin off BHP Uranium for the sake of having the market value their uranium assets and production more favourably?
> 
> Uranium every1 wants. But uranium + iron ore + copper + oil + others maybe not so...
> 
> It could work??




since you brought it up...i wonder what would WMC resources would be worth now if they weren't taken over.


----------



## Halba

*Re: PDN - Paladin Resources*

Nizar in 100 yrs nuclear power would not need a lot of uranium. This u boom will be over in 10-15 yrs.


----------



## eMark

*Re: PDN - Paladin Resources*

After the last 2 days rebound in PDN, where do the punters see PDN going for the rest of this week and beyond?


----------



## Halba

*Re: PDN - Paladin Resources*

up, reasons:

Rumour of a u price auction of up to $100/lb coming sometime mid march.


----------



## nizar

*Re: PDN - Paladin Resources*



			
				eMark said:
			
		

> After the last 2 days rebound in PDN, where do the punters see PDN going for the rest of this week and beyond?




Down as i dont think this correction is over.
Beyond: $20++

In my opinion.


----------



## the barry

*Re: PDN - Paladin Resources*



			
				eMark said:
			
		

> After the last 2 days rebound in PDN, where do the punters see PDN going for the rest of this week and beyond?




China is up again 2.5 percent in early trade. If china can stay up and america has a good night, i dont think it will be to long before the stock is back at pre-correction levels.


----------



## eMark

*Re: PDN - Paladin Resources*



			
				the barry said:
			
		

> China is up again 2.5 percent in early trade. If china can stay up and america has a good night, i dont think it will be to long before the stock is back at pre-correction levels.




Is this correct?

HANG SENG -139.92 -0.73% 18,918.64 
NIKKEI 225  -79.88   -0.47% 16,764.62 

At least it appears to be stabilising, nothing wrong with a small drop...


----------



## eMark

*Re: PDN - Paladin Resources*



			
				nizar said:
			
		

> Beyond: $20++
> 
> In my opinion.




Long term?


----------



## the barry

*Re: PDN - Paladin Resources*



			
				eMark said:
			
		

> Is this correct?
> 
> HANG SENG -139.92 -0.73% 18,918.64
> NIKKEI 225  -79.88   -0.47% 16,764.62
> 
> At least it appears to be stabilising, nothing wrong with a small drop...




SHSE-SZSE300 INDEX 2,589.44 69.14 2.74% 02:01 

China is up, hong kong and japan are slightly down. 
This is a good link for updates on world markets.
http://www.bloomberg.com/markets/stocks/wei_region3.html


----------



## nizar

*Re: PDN - Paladin Resources*



			
				the barry said:
			
		

> SHSE-SZSE300 INDEX 2,589.44 69.14 2.74% 02:01
> 
> China is up, hong kong and japan are slightly down.
> This is a good link for updates on world markets.
> http://www.bloomberg.com/markets/stocks/wei_region3.html





Forget about China.

It was just the trigger.

The trigger couldve been anything, Markets were looking so toppy and punters/investors were looking at any excuse to cash out. And it happened to be China.

China was just a trigger - it is no way the leader in determining short term movements of world markets. The US is still king.


----------



## Fab

*Re: PDN - Paladin Resources*

It sounds like it is war between SMM and PDN . I am wondering whose share price it is going to benefit. I am a PDN shareholder and I am worry that if PDN get there way this will dilute my share and therefore PDN share price might not move up as much.


----------



## Bush Trader

*Re: PDN - Paladin Resources*



			
				nizar said:
			
		

> Yeh could probably do 10,000tonnes per annum for 100 years!
> 
> Now heres an idea: why dont they spin off BHP Uranium for the sake of having the market value their uranium assets and production more favourably?
> 
> Uranium every1 wants. But uranium + iron ore + copper + oil + others maybe not so...
> 
> It could work??




I made reference tot this point earlier, has anyone got access to the numbers?

"I agree with BSD on BHP's U308 resource (hedged or unhedged), however wouldn’t they be better separating off the Olympic dam project into another entity, so as it could be looked at in isolation. It is lost in all the other activities of this Giant. Does anybody have any ideas on what it’s contribution is to BHP’s NPV?"
Yesterday 12:27 PM


----------



## Kauri

*Re: PDN - Paladin Resources*

I hear that a jet has gone down in Malawi with 8 PDN people aboard.


----------



## happytown

*Re: PDN - Paladin Resources*

just reported on abc

a plane carrying 8 aust engineers working for paladin africa (a subsidiary of paladin?) has just crashed in malawi no survivors expected from first view of crash sight


----------



## happytown

*Re: PDN - Paladin Resources*



			
				Kauri said:
			
		

> I hear that a jet has gone down in Malawi with 8 PDN people aboard.




kauri

(unfortunately,) you're right, link

http://www.theaustralian.news.com.au/story/0,20867,21348097-1702,00.html


----------



## UMike

*Re: PDN - Paladin Resources*

Bad News.

Feel for all those involved.


----------



## OK2

*Re: PDN - Paladin Resources*

Another CRASH!!! Only this time an aircraft with Paladin Resources staff on board. 

http://news.ninemsn.com.au/article.aspx?id=253511


My regards go out to any family members of those involved in the crash.


----------



## doctorj

*Re: PDN - Paladin Resources*

Initial reports of 8 dead appear to be premature.

Latest reports are saying 1.


----------



## mmmmining

*Re: PDN - Paladin Resources*

New report said only one Aussie on the board not six. Let's pray, and hope it is not what originally report of the terrible accident.


----------



## PureCoco

*Re: PDN - Paladin Resources*

DOW JONES NEWSWIRES 

Paladin Resources Ltd. (PDN.T) announced the death of Garnet Halliday, executive general manager of operations and development, following a plane crash in Malawi. 

Paladin said Garnet, 50, has been with the company since 2004 and was leading its development team in preparing for the construction of the Kayelekera mine in Malawi. 

The company also said the pilot of the light aircraft, Frank van-Veuren, was also killed in the crash. Van-Veuren was principal of Executive Air Charter. There were no other people on the plane.


----------



## greggy

*Re: PDN - Paladin Resources*



			
				Kauri said:
			
		

> I hear that a jet has gone down in Malawi with 8 PDN people aboard.



Very sad news indeed.  My sympathy goes out to the families left behind in this tragic accident.


----------



## Gundini

*Re: PDN - Paladin Resources*

What terrible news for the family and friends. Our thoughts and prayers are with them today. Could not begin to imagine how they feel. A shock loss.


----------



## Rafa

*Re: PDN - Paladin Resources*

Indeed this is a tragic accident, I have a friend working on this project, but luckily for him, he got back to Oz on Wednesday!

Very concerning... and my sympathy goes out to the family left behind in this tragic accident

Incidentally, my same friend tells me that about one african a week dies whilst working on Palladins Lang H project... I guess thats not news worthy.

The safety standards there are appaling, I guess thats why they have low production costs...


----------



## Fab

*Re: PDN - Paladin Resources*

A couple of question regarding Uranium that will have an impact on PDN.

When is due the ALP meeting when they are supposed to review their Uranium policy?
When is Cameco flooded mine 
When will we know if the U spot price has increased from $85?


----------



## Fab

*Re: PDN - Paladin Resources*

A couple of question regarding Uranium that will have an impact on PDN.

When is due the ALP meeting when they are supposed to review their Uranium policy ?
When is Cameco flooded mine update ?
When will we know if the U spot price has increased from $85 ?


----------



## nizar

*Re: PDN - Paladin Resources*



			
				Fab said:
			
		

> A couple of question regarding Uranium that will have an impact on PDN.
> 
> When is due the ALP meeting when they are supposed to review their Uranium policy ?
> When is Cameco flooded mine update ?
> When will we know if the U spot price has increased from $85 ?




1. April 27th-29th. Uranium mining likely to be lifted.
2. End of the month
3. When it does increase from $85. Check tradetech.com. Updated weekly but it could be unchanged from previous week.


----------



## Fab

*Re: PDN - Paladin Resources*

I am not sure what to do with this one @ the moment, I have some pdnwmf that expire end of this month. I bought them @ an average of 0.89 and I don't know if I should sell them @ a loss now or hope for a recovery before the end of the month. Any suggestions?


----------



## Halba

*Re: PDN - Paladin Resources*

Why did you buy such a highly leveraged warrant that expires soon? Revist risk mngmt, i hope your position size was small. Lots of ppl say that PDN's short term trend has broken. If you were holding shares you could simply wait.


----------



## reece55

*Re: PDN - Paladin Resources*



			
				Fab said:
			
		

> I am not sure what to do with this one @ the moment, I have some pdnwmf that expire end of this month. I bought them @ an average of 0.89 and I don't know if I should sell them @ a loss now or hope for a recovery before the end of the month. Any suggestions?




Fab
Lets break this down mathematically shall we....

Conversion rate is 3:1, which means your cost ($0.89) * 3 add the strike will be what you need the intrinsic price to be to break even. So, you want the price of PDN to be $9.67 in about 20 days time. Now, last price on Friday was $8.69, which means we are $0.98 away from your break even target. This means in 20 calendar days, or about 15 trading days, you need a 11% movement. Annualized, that means you require a 135% return from PDN. 

So, my answer - get the f@3% out now while you can. Could be wrong though, PDN could go upward after a small blip. But personally, on a risk/reward basis, I would get out!

Cheers


----------



## Halba

*Re: PDN - Paladin Resources*

Fab: how many warrants did you buy?


----------



## Kauri

*Re: PDN - Paladin Resources*

I'm half expecting a drop yet back into the $7's...


----------



## It's Snake Pliskin

*Re: PDN - Paladin Resources*



			
				Kauri said:
			
		

> I'm half expecting a drop yet back into the $7's...



Kauri,

I have been waiting for my short signal.


----------



## Kauri

*Re: PDN - Paladin Resources*



			
				It's Snake Pliskin said:
			
		

> Kauri,
> 
> I have been waiting for my short signal.




   Snake,
            What will give you your short signal, the indicators you have on your chart, or maybe price/vol, a combination ?


----------



## It's Snake Pliskin

*Re: PDN - Paladin Resources*



			
				Kauri said:
			
		

> Snake,
> What will give you your short signal, the indicators you have on your chart, or maybe price/vol, a combination ?




Kauri,

The indicators I don't use much but sometimes they help. 
The MACD acts as the confirmation of the stochastic reaction in the overbought zone - if the stochastic drops quickly - a sharp drop, (price has already stopped), it might give an opportunity because people are still nervous.
Price and volume always play a role - there still is supply which I feel is limiting upward movement. 
So I am watching the price for weak signs while being mindful of the confirmations. 
It is then a gamble.

The divergence in the background in the middle of FEB gave warning so I feel it may still influence things.

Guesswork but all TA is.
Regards
Snake


----------



## Fab

*Re: PDN - Paladin Resources*

It should go up in the short term because of 
http://www.stockinterview.com/News/03112007/Uranium-Spot-Price-ERA.html


----------



## Gurgler

*Re: PDN - Paladin Resources*

From FN Arena today:
*
Paladin Achieves Its First Export
FN Arena News - March 12 2007 

By Greg Peel

Paladin Resources (PDN) will see its Langer Heinrich uranium mine in Namibia officially opened by Namibian president Hifikepunye Pohamba next week, although production is already underway. Paladin expects the mine to reach full production status by mid-year, by which it will be producing 90t of U3O8 per month.

In the meantime, a report in The Economist notes the first export deal has been completed, with 10t of oxide having been sold to US uranium distributor ConverDyn for delivery on March 20.

The deal is an important step in satisfying the market that all the hype surrounding Paladin is justified, particularly as is reflected in its spectacular share price run. As a new entrant into the market, Paladin has struck at a time when uranium is very thin on the ground. The auction market price has just hit US$90/lb.

There was no confirmation as to what price the export deal was struck. FNArena contacted Paladin management for confirmation of the deal this morning, but as yet has not received a reply.*

What is the consensus on the ConverDyn price? Discounted - but not as heavily as ERA's?

And what impact on SP if it is?

Kauri/Snake - you still reckon on a re-draw to below $7.90. How overvalued do you regard it?


----------



## captjohn

*Re: PDN - Paladin Resources*



			
				Gurgler said:
			
		

> F
> 
> Kauri/Snake - you still reckon on a re-draw to below $7.90. How overvalued do you regard it?




I have asked Rudi at FN Arena to see if their analysts will now re-value PDN ....considering export sales are happening & new U price at $90....etc...

I bought a big handful of PDN during the sell off  last week so I'm concerned of course.


captjohn


----------



## It's Snake Pliskin

*Re: PDN - Paladin Resources*



			
				Gurgler said:
			
		

> From FN Arena today:
> *
> Paladin Achieves Its First Export
> FN Arena News - March 12 2007
> 
> By Greg Peel
> 
> Paladin Resources (PDN) will see its Langer Heinrich uranium mine in Namibia officially opened by Namibian president Hifikepunye Pohamba next week, although production is already underway. Paladin expects the mine to reach full production status by mid-year, by which it will be producing 90t of U3O8 per month.
> 
> In the meantime, a report in The Economist notes the first export deal has been completed, with 10t of oxide having been sold to US uranium distributor ConverDyn for delivery on March 20.
> 
> The deal is an important step in satisfying the market that all the hype surrounding Paladin is justified, particularly as is reflected in its spectacular share price run. As a new entrant into the market, Paladin has struck at a time when uranium is very thin on the ground. The auction market price has just hit US$90/lb.
> 
> There was no confirmation as to what price the export deal was struck. FNArena contacted Paladin management for confirmation of the deal this morning, but as yet has not received a reply.*
> 
> What is the consensus on the ConverDyn price? Discounted - but not as heavily as ERA's?
> 
> And what impact on SP if it is?
> 
> Kauri/Snake - you still reckon on a re-draw to below $7.90. How overvalued do you regard it?




Gurgler,

No value on it from me. I am fundamentally inequiped to analyse it from that perspective.

Snake


----------



## Fab

*Re: PDN - Paladin Resources*

I hoping PDN will slowly go back to $10. Hopefully Cameco update will be bad so PDN can benefit from it.


----------



## rederob

*Re: PDN - Paladin Resources*



			
				Kauri said:
			
		

> I'm half expecting a drop yet back into the $7's...



And half expecting a return to the plus$10s.
It ain't half as bad as the shorters might think.
Snake will learn someday that "fundamentals" rule overall price direction, but not the daily market action that traders can profit from.


----------



## eMark

*Re: PDN - Paladin Resources*

Uranium Mar 09, 2007 
Ux U308 price: 90.00  
Change from  
previous week +5.00


----------



## It's Snake Pliskin

*Re: PDN - Paladin Resources*



			
				rederob said:
			
		

> And half expecting a return to the plus$10s.
> It ain't half as bad as the shorters might think.
> Snake will learn someday that "fundamentals" rule overall price direction, but not the daily market action that traders can profit from.




Red,

Yes well aware of the fact that the fundamentals drive the long term structure of share prices. They also take time to work into a position where people will offload to the hopeful. However in the short term they exhibit opportunitites to profit from. In the case of shorting my signal has not eventuated so no harm done. I am not holding/shorting in hope of oneday. 

Take care
Snake


----------



## It's Snake Pliskin

*Re: PDN - Paladin Resources*

A nice gap down today. This constitutes weakness for the time being.


----------



## barney

*Re: PDN - Paladin Resources*



			
				It's Snake Pliskin said:
			
		

> A nice gap down today. This constitutes weakness for the time being.




Hi Snake, I am a big fan of PDN (wish I could afford a few thousand of them   .................. Just my opinion, but it would be one of the few stocks I would be very wary of short selling (unless the time frame was also very short/and or it was a covering position) ............... It gapped down on open today, but held its position firm all day ........... showed strength imo. (that may change in the future of course) ................. neither of my CFD providers will let me short sell it (IG and City Index) .......

There are times when I would like to be able to short it to cover my long position .................  Who is your provider? (or are you considering using put options?)  Cheers.


----------



## It's Snake Pliskin

*Re: PDN - Paladin Resources*



			
				barney said:
			
		

> Hi Snake, I am a big fan of PDN (wish I could afford a few thousand of them   .................. Just my opinion, but it would be one of the few stocks I would be very wary of short selling (unless the time frame was also very short/and or it was a covering position) ............... It gapped down on open today, but held its position firm all day ........... showed strength imo. (that may change in the future of course) ................. neither of my CFD providers will let me short sell it (IG and City Index) .......
> 
> There are times when I would like to be able to short it to cover my long position .................  Who is your provider? (or are you considering using put options?)  Cheers.




Hi Barney,

I see what you mean but don't agree. PDN gapped down and then rejected the high of the day to finish at the open price. Volume wasn't high indicating a lack of buyers with CONVICTION and also a lack sellers with CONVICTION. But it gapped down and finished not so strong. Something telling there. Look back at the days of blood and the volume involved   What's the short term directional bias? 

Take care
Snake


----------



## barney

*Re: PDN - Paladin Resources*



			
				It's Snake Pliskin said:
			
		

> Hi Barney,
> 
> I see what you mean but don't agree. PDN gapped down and then rejected the high of the day to finish at the open price. Volume wasn't high indicating a lack of buyers with CONVICTION and also a lack sellers with CONVICTION. But it gapped down and finished not so strong. Something telling there. Look back at the days of blood and the volume involved   What's the short term directional bias?
> 
> Take care
> Snake





Respect your opinion as always Snake .............. I might be wearing rose coloured glasses with PDN (It's been kind to me), but considering the recent carnage, I thought it had bounced back reasonably well after the "mad" monday 5th March ............. Like most stocks, its short term fate will be determined by the general market sentiment, which is a little shaky.  Longer term I think it still looks v solid.  All the best.


----------



## Fab

*Re: PDN - Paladin Resources*

This one now needs to break the $9 mark with good volume in order to move upward in my opinion which it should do soon as the U environment is looking very very boyant at the moment.


----------



## the barry

*Re: PDN - Paladin Resources*

Pdn has just fulfilled its first contract and has made the jump to a producing company. The company will be in full production in a couple of months. This is perfect timing to take advantage of the rising uranium price. With the problems associated with cameco's and ERA's ranger mine, the price of uranium is only going to continue to rise in the short term as those companies go to the open market to fulfil those orders. In the short term i have no doubt that the price will climb back to the pre-correction price range in the mid 10 dollar mark.


----------



## Fab

*Re: PDN - Paladin Resources*



			
				the barry said:
			
		

> Pdn has just fulfilled its first contract and has made the jump to a producing company. The company will be in full production in a couple of months. This is perfect timing to take advantage of the rising uranium price. With the problems associated with cameco's and ERA's ranger mine, the price of uranium is only going to continue to rise in the short term as those companies go to the open market to fulfil those orders. In the short term i have no doubt that the price will climb back to the pre-correction price range in the mid 10 dollar mark.




Yep I agree with the price going back to $10 specially with the way PDN is boucing back at the moment. It looks like blue sky for U producer.


----------



## mildew79

*Re: PDN - Paladin Resources*



			
				Fab said:
			
		

> This one now needs to break the $9 mark with good volume in order to move upward in my opinion which it should do soon as the U environment is looking very very boyant at the moment.




i agree fab. 9.00-9.10 obviously a strong resistance / support level with multiple confirmations. would love to see them go through 9.10 on large volume.


----------



## Halba

*Re: PDN - Paladin Resources*

Yep I agree with the price going back to $10 specially with the way PDN is boucing back at the moment. It looks like blue sky for U producer.


??

Wheres the profit ,eps or revenue figures? Last i check company producing 3tonnes of yellowcake per month.


----------



## the barry

*Re: PDN - Paladin Resources*



			
				Halba said:
			
		

> Yep I agree with the price going back to $10 specially with the way PDN is boucing back at the moment. It looks like blue sky for U producer.
> 
> 
> ??
> 
> Wheres the profit ,eps or revenue figures? Last i check company producing 3tonnes of yellowcake per month.




The company has just started production.Will be at full production within the next couple of months. Can't see this stock not flying when it reaches full production.


----------



## Fab

*Re: PDN - Paladin Resources*



			
				the barry said:
			
		

> The company has just started production.Will be at full production within the next couple of months. Can't see this stock not flying when it reaches full production.



I agree. Another one that is great in a different area with blue sky prospect is SEK.

Here is what Macquarie had to say about PDN today:



> 15 March 2007
> PDN: Macquarie Initiates Research Coverage!
> 
> Today, Macquarie Research Equities (MRE) have initiated coverage of uranium player Paladin Resources Ltd (PDN). PDN was one of the star performers on the local bourse last year and continued its strong run through January. But, the heavy selling that swamped global markets in February saw PDN slump to a low of $7.45, with the stock subsequently recovering to today’s price at just under $9.00 at time of writing. Macquarie Warrants offers investors a leveraged solution for those wishing to trade or invest in PDN, with issuance that includes trading warrants, Instalments and Income Instalments.
> 
> Pure uranium play. Paladin is a focused uranium mining, development and exploration company with key development projects in both Africa and Australia. The company’s flagship project, the Langer Heinrich mine in Namibia, entered into commercial uranium production at the end of 2006.
> Paladin’s status as the newest entrant into the world’s uranium producer sector has allowed it to lock in new uranium supply contacts at substantially higher prices than the lowly-priced legacy contracts that are still being delivered into by other producers.
> Uranium to hit US$100/lb. Over the past five years the uranium spot price has surged from around US$10/lb to US$91/lb, its highest nominal level on record. In the short term, the market is expected to remain tight, and reactors are expected to continue to struggle to secure sufficient primary supply in the face of waning secondary supplies. MRE are forecasting spot uranium prices to peak at US$100/lb in mid-2007 (US$90/lb 2007 average) before progressively dropping over the next four years to MRE’s long-run price forecast of US$35/lb, as primary supply starts responding to current high prices. However, the lion’s share of forecast growth in output comes from a small number of mines – any disruption to production at any of these mines is likely to have a major upward impact on spot prices (eg recent delay of the Cigar Lake underground project, plus current Ranger mine flooding issues).
> Valuing top-line potential. Macquarie’s blended equity valuation of US$4.74ps (A$6.05ps) effectively values Paladin at ~US$13/lb resource at an enterprise level. In arriving at MRE’s 12month price target for Paladin, MRE have  utilised a combination of their blended valuation (at our forecast uranium price peak of US$100/lb) and a comparable FY09 earnings multiple (13x EBITDA).
> 
> MRE have initiated coverage on PDN with a neutral recommendation and 12-month price target of $8.40. Paladin has a solid asset suite, strong growth profile and significant leverage to a booming uranium price. It also appears expensive on just about all metrics (as with nearly all other uranium plays globally). Despite appearing stretched in a pure valuation sense, it is hard to see Paladin materially underperforming given MRE’s forecast short-term bullish uranium price environment.
> 
> Traders looking for maximum exposure to short-term movements in the PDN share price should consider the following equity warrants for a high-risk, high-return strategy.
> 
> Investors and traders looking for short to medium-term leveraged exposure to the PDN share price should consider Macquarie Instalments for a higher risk, higher return alternative to direct share investment.
> Macquarie Warrants and Structured Products to consider
> Call Warrants 	Put Warrants 	Hot Instalments
> PDNWMF Mar 07 $7.00
> PDNWMG Jun 07 $9.00
> PDNWMH May 07 $11.00
> PDNWMP Jun 07 $8.00
> Non-resetting
> PDNIM3 Oct 07 $8.00
> PDNIMS Dec 07 $6.50
> PDNJMC Jun 08 $4.50
> PDNJMD Jun 08 $7.


----------



## It's Snake Pliskin

*Re: PDN - Paladin Resources*



			
				It's Snake Pliskin said:
			
		

> A nice gap down today. This constitutes weakness for the time being.




Still no short taken as no signal came. A gap up today (a positive day) on higher volume with very little in price movement - still relatively weak. 
It trades sideways until a clearer environment is evident. It goes down more if there is a bigger drop in the near future. 
Just an alternative to the blue skies, at least in the short term.


----------



## Fab

*Re: PDN - Paladin Resources*

I am surprised PDN is stagnating today. Any idea why ?


----------



## Sean K

*Re: PDN - Paladin Resources*



			
				Fab said:
			
		

> I am surprised PDN is stagnating today. Any idea why ?



Down 1% and a million shares traded....that's not stagnating.


----------



## Halba

*Re: PDN - Paladin Resources*

in the words of kennas one needs to be objective re: paladin. With no production figures(they have production problems), EPS, cash flows or anything of substance, where is the upside going to come from? Its market cap is $4.5billion dollars, there are plenty of companies making proper cash flow at that market cap.


----------



## Sean K

*Re: PDN - Paladin Resources*



			
				Halba said:
			
		

> in the words of kennas one needs to be objective re: paladin. With no production figures(they have production problems), EPS, cash flows or anything of substance, where is the upside going to come from? Its market cap is $4.5billion dollars, there are plenty of companies making proper cash flow at that market cap.



Interesting they haven't given detail of production to date, unless I missed it?

Upside will have to be from U spot conitued appreciation, production as forecast or better, growth through acquisition, Kayelekera going well, no market crash, and no more plane crashes. 

All very possible.


----------



## the barry

*Re: PDN - Paladin Resources*



			
				Halba said:
			
		

> in the words of kennas one needs to be objective re: paladin. With no production figures(they have production problems), EPS, cash flows or anything of substance, where is the upside going to come from? Its market cap is $4.5billion dollars, there are plenty of companies making proper cash flow at that market cap.




What production problems? They just did their first order which was reported and will be at full production in about 2 months. Where is it reported that they are having production problems?????


----------



## Halba

*Re: PDN - Paladin Resources*

In their quarterly? re: production problems they have produced low amounts of u to date. Nothing flash.

Their shipment is barely commercial - 10 tonnes.

10t shipment in 3 months seems very low.



> Namibia Economist (Windhoek)
> 
> March 9, 2007
> Posted to the web March 9, 2007
> 
> Windhoek
> 
> Paladin Resources' Langer Heinrich in the Erongo Region will export its first production of uranium oxide to Converdyn of the United States on March 20, said general manager Wyatt Buck in a telephone interview from Swakopmund. The 10 tons to be sold to Converdyne will be the mine's first export.
> 
> "We expect to reach full production by mid this year producing 90 tonnes of uranium oxide per month or 1180 tonnes per year," said Buck. Paladin has so far spent N$620 million to bring the project into production, Buck said. The mine will be officially opened by President Hifikepunye Pohamba next week Thursday. Langer Heinrich mine construction completed.
> 
> The construction and commissioning of the project was successfully completed in December last year. The Australian-based Paladin said early this year that production from Langer Heinrich represents an important step forward in the challenge to meet the rapidly growing demand for uranium in a rejuvenated nuclear industry.
> 
> With a continued positive price outlook expected for a decade or more, timing of Paladin's production is optimal in consolidating the company as the pre-eminent new producer, the firm said in January.


----------



## the barry

*Re: PDN - Paladin Resources*



			
				Halba said:
			
		

> In their quarterly? re: production problems they have produced low amounts of u to date. Nothing flash.
> 
> Their shipment is barely commercial - 10 tonnes.
> 
> 10t shipment in 3 months seems very low.
> 
> 
> 
> 
> Namibia Economist (Windhoek)
> 
> March 9, 2007
> Posted to the web March 9, 2007
> 
> Windhoek
> 
> Paladin Resources' Langer Heinrich in the Erongo Region will export its first production of uranium oxide to Converdyn of the United States on March 20, said general manager Wyatt Buck in a telephone interview from Swakopmund. The 10 tons to be sold to Converdyne will be the mine's first export.
> 
> "We expect to reach full production by mid this year producing 90 tonnes of uranium oxide per month or 1180 tonnes per year," said Buck. Paladin has so far spent N$620 million to bring the project into production, Buck said. The mine will be officially opened by President Hifikepunye Pohamba next week Thursday. Langer Heinrich mine construction completed.
> 
> The construction and commissioning of the project was successfully completed in December last year. The Australian-based Paladin said early this year that production from Langer Heinrich represents an important step forward in the challenge to meet the rapidly growing demand for uranium in a rejuvenated nuclear industry.
> 
> With a continued positive price outlook expected for a decade or more, timing of Paladin's production is optimal in consolidating the company as the pre-eminent new producer, the firm said in January. wink.gif
Click to expand...



Just because they are a new mine does not mean they have production problems. No mine hits the ground running at full production. The fact that it was 10 tonnes in three months means nothing, just because the first contract fell at the end of the first quarter does not mean they have production problems.


----------



## Sean K

*Re: PDN - Paladin Resources*



			
				the barry said:
			
		

> Just because they are a new mine does not mean they have production problems. No mine hits the ground running at full production. The fact that it was 10 tonnes in three months means nothing, just because the first contract fell at the end of the first quarter does not mean they have production problems.



You guys have any idea what they had planned to deliver in the first 3 months? Or produce? 

I think that is the issue here. If it was as sceduled/planned, then no drama. If otherwise then we know there is a problem. If we do not know this, then anything here is speculation.


----------



## the barry

*Re: PDN - Paladin Resources*



			
				kennas said:
			
		

> You guys have any idea what they had planned to deliver in the first 3 months? Or produce?
> 
> I think that is the issue here. If it was as sceduled/planned, then no drama. If otherwise then we know there is a problem. If we do not know this, then anything here is speculation.




From the annual PALADIN RESOURCES LTD
Quarterly Report – December 2006

LHU operations team assisted by GRD-Minproc is methodically mitigating the range of handover list items.Paladin is confident it will achieve design production rate of 2.6Mlb U3O8 by the end of the ramp up period in
June 2007. Production to the end of the ramp up period is difficult to estimate although expected to be in therange or 900,000Mlbs to 1,000,000Mlbs (previously forecast 1,000,000Mlbs to 1,150,000Mlbs).
The first commercial shipment of uranium is scheduled for March 2007.

At present it looks as though everything is going to plan. No production problems according to the schedule.


----------



## Sean K

*Re: PDN - Paladin Resources*



			
				the barry said:
			
		

> From the annual PALADIN RESOURCES LTD
> Quarterly Report – December 2006
> 
> LHU operations team assisted by GRD-Minproc is methodically mitigating the range of handover list items.Paladin is confident it will achieve design production rate of 2.6Mlb U3O8 by the end of the ramp up period in
> June 2007. Production to the end of the ramp up period is difficult to estimate although expected to be in therange or 900,000Mlbs to 1,000,000Mlbs (previously forecast 1,000,000Mlbs to 1,150,000Mlbs).
> The first commercial shipment of uranium is scheduled for March 2007.
> 
> At present it looks as though everything is going to plan. No production problems according to the schedule.



Thanks Barry. We could be hyper critical here and say they have actually downgraded what they forecast to produce:



> expected to be in therange or 900,000Mlbs to 1,000,000Mlbs (previously forecast 1,000,000Mlbs to 1,150,000Mlbs



also unsure about this:



> GRD-Minproc is methodically mitigating the range of handover list items



I'm not a big fan of the word 'mitigating'. Sounds like damage control to me. Maybe I'm too critical here. 

So, what we want to see is 2.6 m lbs by the end of June. They should update the market before then I suppose. Look forward to it.


----------



## Kauri

*Re: PDN - Paladin Resources*



			
				kennas said:
			
		

> I'm not a big fan of the word 'mitigating'. Sounds like damage control to me. Maybe I'm too critical here.




Kennas,
Just a normal part of handover, not many mines operate at full capacity at handover,after commissioning there is always a part of the construction crew left on site to deal with problems ranging from leaking pipework to mis aligned mills. The fact that their ramp-up towards spec plate production levels is pretty much in line with expectations is a good sign.
Kauri..


----------



## Halba

*Re: PDN - Paladin Resources*

Breaking news. Malawi in doubt

http://www.nyasatimes.com/Breaking-News/382.html




> Kauri: The fact that their ramp-up towards spec plate production levels is pretty much in line with expectations is a good sign:




No they are not going to meet their 1,000,000 lb target having only produced 10t

Time will tell if they get it to production properly but i am sceptical. The quarterly report looks suspect and the production issues are basically hidden under stuff about global warming.


----------



## Kauri

*Re: PDN - Paladin Resources*



			
				Halba said:
			
		

> No they are not going to meet their 1,000,000 lb target having only produced 10t.




From the annual PALADIN RESOURCES LTD
Quarterly Report – December 2006

LHU operations team assisted by GRD-Minproc is methodically mitigating the range of handover list items.Paladin is confident it will achieve design production rate of 2.6Mlb U3O8 by the *end of the ramp up period in
June 2007. Production to the end of the ramp up period is difficult to estimate although expected to be in therange or 900,000Mlbs to 1,000,000Mlbs (previously forecast 1,000,000Mlbs to 1,150,000Mlbs).
*


----------



## Knobby22

*Re: PDN - Paladin Resources*



			
				Halba said:
			
		

> Breaking news. Malawi in doubt
> 
> http://www.nyasatimes.com/Breaking-News/382.html
> 
> 
> 
> 
> No they are not going to meet their 1,000,000 lb target having only produced 10t
> 
> Time will tell if they get it to production properly but i am sceptical. The quarterly report looks suspect and the production issues are basically hidden under stuff about global warming.




If the politicians think that is bad, they should live in Victoria.
Everything is secret.


----------



## madcabbie

*Re: PDN - Paladin Resources*



			
				Halba said:
			
		

> Breaking news. Malawi in doubt
> 
> http://www.nyasatimes.com/Breaking-News/382.html
> 
> 
> 
> 
> No they are not going to meet their 1,000,000 lb target having only produced 10t
> 
> Time will tell if they get it to production properly but i am sceptical. The quarterly report looks suspect and the production issues are basically hidden under stuff about global warming.




2 - points to make here

      1 - The current operating mine is in Namibia.  The Malawi project is in the early developmental phase and the article is of a general socio-political   nature
       2 - Kauri already has explained the nature of the current production which is progressing well

I don't think titling the snippet 'breaking news' is really appropriate and may lend one the impression that the poster either A. despises Paladin or B. is trying to talk the market down :karaoke:


----------



## Sean K

*Re: PDN - Paladin Resources*



			
				madcabbie said:
			
		

> 2 - points to make here
> 
> 1 - The current operating mine is in Namibia.  The Malawi project is in the early developmental phase and the article is of a general socio-political   nature
> 2 - Kauri already has explained the nature of the current production which is progressing well
> 
> I don't think titling the snippet 'breaking news' is really appropriate and may lend one the impression that the poster either A. despises Paladin or B. is trying to talk the market down :karaoke:



Actually, that news doesn't look all that great to me. Kayelekera is an important plank in PDNs progress. Will be interesting to see the follow through on it. Calling it 'breaking news' is just what the article was in the newspaper. It was titled 'breaking news'. What's the problem there?

Everyone, let's try and continue to keep things objective here. The discussion has been OK so far, and I am very interested to see if PDN can, or will meet their stated production targets. They have about 3 months to produce about 1 m lbs of uranium. It looks to me to be a bit of speculation one way or the other at the moment, and we'll have to wait for an update from the company....


----------



## Fab

*Re: PDN - Paladin Resources*

In the mentime PDN was up almost 1% on the tsx.


----------



## nizar

*Re: PDN - Paladin Resources*



			
				kennas said:
			
		

> Actually, that news doesn't look all that great to me. Kayelekera is an important plank in PDNs progress. Will be interesting to see the follow through on it. Calling it 'breaking news' is just what the article was in the newspaper. It was titled 'breaking news'. What's the problem there?




The problem here is very clear.
Madcabbie holds a few PDNs and he would much rather see ramps, and he only believes articles which support his bullish view


----------



## mmmmining

*Re: PDN - Paladin Resources*

Old news, PDN officially opened the uranium mine in Namibia, and first U3O8 has been shipped out.


----------



## purple

*Re: PDN - Paladin Resources*



			
				mmmmining said:
			
		

> Old news, PDN officially opened the uranium mine in Namibia, and first U3O8 has been shipped out.




PDN needs to build on positive announcements to claw, er.. i mean, bounce its way back up to the above 10's again..
too much of a big sell-off lately, and a lot of mixed reports from analysts..some up, some down.

still watching  n waiting...


----------



## Fab

*Re: PDN - Paladin Resources*

Looking good for PDN.



> AFTER already rising nearly tenfold during the past four years, the spot uranium price is expected to break through the $US100 a pound barrier for the first time, possibly as early as this week.
> 
> In a case of perfect timing, Perth's Paladin Resources on Friday officially opened the world's newest uranium mine, Langer Heinrich in Namibia. Paladin stands to be the biggest Australian beneficiary of the higher uranium price, which has spiked as a supply shortage has coincided with a huge jump in demand.
> 
> A spot price of even $US100 a pound would not be particularly helpful to long-time producers such as Energy Resources of Australia and BHP Billiton unless it stayed that high for years, because they locked in long-term contracts when uranium was trading at record lows.
> 
> But Paladin has positioned itself to be the world's fourth-largest uranium producer by 2010, despite competition from rivals around the world.
> 
> "A new exploration cycle is now very much under way, and significant new discoveries will be made," Goldman Sachs JBWere analyst Malcolm Southwood said. "But it takes several years to evaluate and prove reserves, and once the economic reserves are defined, it takes 10 years or more to licence and develop a project and bring the mine into production."
> 
> Paladin has already approved development of its next project, the $US185 million ($A232.5 million) Kayelekera mine in Malawi. And the company's managing director, John Borshoff, is today expected to make an announcement regarding its recent $1 billion scrip offer for Queensland explorer Summit Resources. A successful bid would give Paladin full control over its half-owned Valhalla and Skal deposits near Mt Isa.
> 
> Paladin has additional prospects in the Northern Territory and Western Australia, and Macquarie Equities thinks it may consider an overseas acquisition to enable it to get a third mine in production by 2010.
> 
> Paladin's Langer Heinrich mine could benefit immediately from any increase in the spot price. Although contract terms are kept confidential, Macquarie analysts believe Paladin has contracted about half its production from Langer Heinrich with a ceiling of about $US50 a pound and a floor of $US30 a pound. The remaining production is uncontracted, and uranium last week was selling at a record spot price of $US91 a pound.
> 
> Analysts from Macquarie, RBC Capital Markets and Goldman Sachs JBWere all predict uranium prices could hit $US100 a pound this year.
> 
> But BHP, which owns the world's largest uranium resource at Olympic Dam in South Australia, is not expected to benefit from higher uranium prices until legacy contracts paying less than $US20 a pound run out in 2010. Even worse, BHP has been forced to buy high-priced third-party uranium to meet the terms of some of its contracts.
> 
> The pricing terms of Rio Tinto subsidiary ERA's contracts are confidential, but Goldman Sachs JBWere said it assumed ERA sold its product through a mixture of spot sales and long-term contracts, with the majority weighted towards long-term contracts. Based on an average uranium price of $US90 a pound this year, the investment bank expects ERA to receive only $US23 a pound, rising to $US45 a pound by 2010.


----------



## Halba

*Re: PDN - Paladin Resources*

concern here:



> Paladin has contracted about half its production from Langer Heinrich with a ceiling of about $US50 a pound and a floor of $US30 a pou


----------



## nizar

*Re: PDN - Paladin Resources*



			
				Halba said:
			
		

> concern here:




Oh damn.
MUCH concern.

If this spreads, could be a disaster for holders.

Why would permabull Borshoff do this??


----------



## the barry

*Re: PDN - Paladin Resources*



			
				nizar said:
			
		

> Oh damn.
> MUCH concern.
> 
> If this spreads, could be a disaster for holders.
> 
> Why would permabull Borshoff do this??




Are you guys serious, did you not read the rest of the article?

http://www.theage.com.au/news/busin...ium-price-soars/2007/03/18/1174152881148.html

As the title suggests "New mine puts Paladin in box seat as uranium price soars."


----------



## Halba

*Re: PDN - Paladin Resources*

Great box seat. just hedged half their production? Not to mention some reports of proddy problems. I don't buy media hype.

Thats where the upcoming deposits are better placed -none of them are hedged and will get even higher than $100/lb later on.


----------



## nizar

*Re: PDN - Paladin Resources*



			
				Halba said:
			
		

> Great box seat. just hedged half their production? Not to mention some reports of proddy problems. I don't buy media hype.
> 
> Thats where the upcoming deposits are better placed -none of them are hedged and will get even higher than $100/lb later on.




Agree.
With U3O8 spot price above us$50/lb, PDN only partly benefits, not to the extent, that I, and the rest of the market, have previously thought.


----------



## the barry

*Re: PDN - Paladin Resources*



			
				Halba said:
			
		

> Great box seat. just hedged half their production? Not to mention some reports of proddy problems. I don't buy media hype.
> 
> Thats where the upcoming deposits are better placed -none of them are hedged and will get even higher than $100/lb later on.




All the article is saying is that paladin is in the best position of the uranium producing companies in Australia. If you want to buy a position into a currently producing company, its a no brainer, Paladin.


----------



## reece55

*Re: PDN - Paladin Resources*



			
				the barry said:
			
		

> If you want to buy a position into a currently producing company, its a no brainer, Paladin.




Hrmm.... I'm not sure about that.....

On every valuation metric, PDN is expensive - still reckon that even at $9.00 there is a fair bit of hype with this one. Chart wise, it has had a fairly big hit. But looks like it might break that 9 ish resistance today, so will it go for a double top? 

Inevitably, I think this one will ultimately disappoint the market eventually, expectations are too high. Could be wrong though!

Cheers


----------



## Halba

*Re: PDN - Paladin Resources*

hi nizar.Yes i know it has been hedged for long time, but I didn't think it was half. Thats quite a lot of 2.2mil pounds production and even that is a risk in reaching their goals.

Thats why i think its better to have a diversified uu portfolio not just with paladin

They are heavily reliant on 2 projects and SMM deal going through(which it won't)... 

I think borschoff is due to make a statement to the market today re: SMM so all eyes on that. Still they have achieved more than most and actually have deposits ready to produce.


----------



## Fab

*Re: PDN - Paladin Resources*



			
				reece55 said:
			
		

> Hrmm.... I'm not sure about that.....
> 
> On every valuation metric, PDN is expensive - still reckon that even at $9.00 there is a fair bit of hype with this one. Chart wise, it has had a fairly big hit. But looks like it might break that 9 ish resistance today, so will it go for a double top?
> 
> Inevitably, I think this one will ultimately disappoint the market eventually, expectations are too high. Could be wrong though!
> 
> Cheers



That's right it is expensive on all metrics but then what do you compare it to as there is no benchmark for U company in the current market.
Also SEK is expensive as well but I will keep on buying into this one as on line advertising is due to boom in the next decade. So everything is relative


----------



## madcabbie

*Re: PDN - Paladin Resources*

PDN in pre-open


----------



## Fab

*Re: PDN - Paladin Resources*

PDN rising very strongly on tsx. It must be cameco news


----------



## the barry

*Re: PDN - Paladin Resources*



			
				Fab said:
			
		

> PDN rising very strongly on tsx. It must be cameco news




Currently up 5.15 percent on the tsx. Expect similiar things today on our exchange. Looking good.


----------



## eMark

*Re: PDN - Paladin Resources*

Excuse my ignorance, but what is the "T" SX?


----------



## Gurgler

*Re: PDN - Paladin Resources*



			
				eMark said:
			
		

> Excuse my ignorance, but what is the "T" SX?




eMark, it's the Toronto Stock Exchange.


----------



## madcabbie

*Re: PDN - Paladin Resources*



			
				eMark said:
			
		

> Excuse my ignorance, but what is the "T" SX?




TSX is the Toronto Stock exchange - here is the closing price/vol from the tsx: www.tsx.com  (quotes are delayed 15mins on that site).

PDN 8.700 +0.430 +5.20 3,464,993 T   19 Mar 2007 16:31 ET - don't know about the exact closing time, but 4:30 p.m may be it.


----------



## Fab

*Re: PDN - Paladin Resources*



			
				eMark said:
			
		

> Excuse my ignorance, but what is the "T" SX?



Emark just to clarify on PDN listing. PDN is listed on the TSX and ASX. A bit like BHP is listed in London and Australia. So the overnight trend on the TSX often give you an indication of what might happen at opening in Australia.


----------



## eMark

*Re: PDN - Paladin Resources*



			
				Fab said:
			
		

> Emark just to clarify on PDN listing. PDN is listed on the TSX and ASX. A bit like BHP is listed in London and Australia. So the overnight trend on the TSX often give you an indication of what might happen at opening in Australia.




Thanks guys, very helpful. So far so good today.


----------



## purple

*Re: PDN - Paladin Resources*



			
				eMark said:
			
		

> Thanks guys, very helpful. So far so good today.




I hope this doesn't turn into a prolonged slugfest... 



> Australia's Summit Says Expects Paladin to Raise Bid (Update1)
> 
> By Angela Macdonald-Smith
> 
> March 20 (Bloomberg) -- Summit Resources Ltd., an Australian uranium explorer, formally rejected a share-based takeover offer from Paladin Resources Ltd. and said it expects the larger Perth- based rival to come back with a higher bid.
> 
> Paladin's offer doesn't reflect ``unrealized potential'' in Summit's exploration projects, Summit Chairman John Seton said today in a letter to shareholders lodged with the Australian Stock Exchange. Summit's Mt. Isa uranium deposit in Queensland may be developed into one of the world's top five uranium projects, the company said.
> 
> Paladin is offering one share for every 2.04 Summit shares, valuing Summit at A$4.49 a share, or about A$886 million ($707 million), based on yesterday's closing share prices. Summit shares closed yesterday at A$4.60, higher than the equivalent stock offer.
> 
> ``We think that Paladin will come back because its our belief at this stage that they won't secure control of the company with the offer on the table and they really need a world-class project in a first-world country and that's something they don't have,'' Alan Eggers, managing director of Perth-based Summit, said today on a teleconference with reporters.
> 
> Shares in Paladin, which have more than doubled in the past six months, today gained as much as 28 cents, or 3.1 percent, to A$9.38 on the exchange. They were at A$9.16 at 3 p.m. in Sydney. Summit shares, which have more than trebled in the past six months, today rose as much as 10 cents, or 2.2 percent, to A$4.64. They were at A$4.60 at the same time.
> 
> To contact the reporter on this story: Angela Macdonald-Smith in Sydney at amacdonaldsm@bloomberg.net.
> 
> Last Updated: March 20, 2007 00:12 EDT


----------



## Halba

*Re: PDN - Paladin Resources*

Well at least they are open to a higher offer. $5.50 should do the trick for me. I'll sell my shares to ya PDN.


----------



## purple

*Re: PDN - Paladin Resources*



			
				Halba said:
			
		

> Well at least they are open to a higher offer. $5.50 should do the trick for me. I'll sell my shares to ya PDN.




not yet...LOL...



Summit reaffirms to reject Paladin takeover offer

Summit drill cores from the Mt Isa area


Summit Resources yesterday released its Target’s Statement, reaffirming its board’s advice to shareholders to reject that Paladin’s all-scrip hostile offer, which it says does not reflect the unrealised potential of Summit’s uranium, base metal and iron ore projects and extensive tenement holdings in Queensland.

Summit Resources Managing Director, Alan Eggers warned shareholders against accepting Paladin’s takeover offer. 

“Paladin now recognises the unrealised potential of Summit’s assets, which are located in one of the most prospective uranium provinces in the world today,” Mr Eggers said. 

“Paladin Managing Director John Borshoff’s comment yesterday that Summit has a ‘uranium province in the making’ confirms our belief that Paladin is attempting to capture value for Paladin shareholders that will otherwise flow to Summit shareholders,” he said. 

Mr Eggers said the Summit board believes it is likely that Paladin will fail to get control of the company with this first attempt and will have to return with a higher offer at some point in the future. 

“The benefits that Paladin stands to gain from this offer are not adequately reflected in the price that Paladin is offering,” Mr Eggers said. 

“That is why we are continuing to urge all of our shareholders to reject Palain’s offer.”

- 21 Mar 2007


----------



## Fab

*Re: PDN - Paladin Resources*

PDN up 4% on the tsx overnight. It can't be bad for the opening on monday


----------



## Fab

*Re: PDN - Paladin Resources*

It looks to me that PDN is on a roll today. It went through the $9.50 resistance flying. Any comments why? Hopefully it will get back to $10 very soon.


----------



## It's Snake Pliskin

*Re: PDN - Paladin Resources*



Fab said:


> It looks to me that PDN is on a roll today. It went through the $9.50 resistance flying. Any comments why? Hopefully it will get back to $10 very soon.




I just sold my holdings at $9.60, small profit about 4% in 5 days - weak volume today.  I am quite happy to take profits in toppy not so bullish conditions.


----------



## Fab

*Re: PDN - Paladin Resources*

Here is the reason. It is likely to run higher I would think.



> The spot price of uranium edged closer to the $US100 per pound mark overnight with the move driving up the share price of Australia's yellowcake brigade.
> 
> The spot price surged to its highest peak since the 70s and hit $US95.00 a pound overnight.
> 
> Uranium miners Energy Resources of Australia Ltd and Paladin Resources Ltd followed the price jump, gaining 7.17 per cent and 2.03 per cent by 1253 AEDT, respectively.
> 
> Of the advanced explorers, Energy Metals Ltd moved 10.78 per cent higher to $5.65 by 1254 AEDT, Nova Energy Ltd gained 11.43 per cent to $3.90 and Toro Energy Ltd added 7.77 per cent to $1.04.
> 
> The drivers for nuclear energy growth are well documented and include increasing global electricity demand and global warming concerns, pointing towards an increasing demand for nuclear energy and therefore uranium.
> 
> The demand for uranium is also expected to be driven by the proposed construction of 178 new nuclear reactors, a 40 per cent increase on the current global fleet of 441.
> 
> The uranium price has almost doubled since July when it was fetching about $US48.00 per pound on the spot market.
> 
> The increase in price is also spurning an increase in corporate activity in the sector with takeovers and the spin-out of new uranium focused companies on the rise.
> 
> "There is an increasing amount of corporate activity occurring in the Australian uranium sector as the long awaited rationalisation and consolidation phase commences," analysts from StockResource said in a March 7 client note.
> 
> These include Paladin's $1 billion bid for Summit Resources Ltd and Hong Kong-based investment bank Crosby Capital Partners' $206 million bid for Marathon Resources Ltd.
> 
> © 2007 AAP


----------



## Fab

*Re: PDN - Paladin Resources*

Actually PDN priced edged higher overnight on the TSX 2.27% up in good volume over 2,000,000 whereas Wall Street went down almost 100 pts. In the last few days the ASX seems to have followed the TSX with regards to PDN so I am hoping for a strong showing today in an overall down market. 
Any thoughts on that?


----------



## It's Snake Pliskin

*Re: PDN - Paladin Resources*



Fab said:


> Actually PDN priced edged higher overnight on the TSX 2.27% up in good volume over 2,000,000 whereas Wall Street went down almost 100 pts. In the last few days the ASX seems to have followed the TSX with regards to PDN so I am hoping for a strong showing today in an overall down market.
> Any thoughts on that?




So that would present a conundrum. Down, up, down or up?
If your perspective is next year don't worry about it. If it's not......


----------



## Fab

*Re: PDN - Paladin Resources*

Here is what Macquarie says about PDN

Trading Pick of the Day


04 April 2007
PDN – What is the Short Term Direction?

Paladin Resources (PDN) has fallen over 8.8% from all time highs of $10.75 in February after the board of Summit Resources rejected its takeover offer. If you have a positive long term view of the stock, but believe a short term correction is possible, through a Hi-Note with an Opening Level of 95% you can earn 30.48%pa* over the next 90 days, while you wait to invest.

In 90 days time of PDN is above your Opening Level (95%) you will receive $3,757.98 income for a $50,000 investment.

PDN is currently at $9.80, at Maturity if the stock has fallen by more than 5% you will effectively purchase stock at your reference price $9.31

In both cases you will receive your agreed rate of interest (currently 30.48%*pa).
Macquarie Research Equities (MRE) Analysis of Paladin Resources

*  Paladin is a focused uranium mining, development and exploration company with key development projects in both Africa and Australia. The company’s flagship project, the Langer Heinrich mine in Namibia, entered into commercial uranium production at the end of 2006.

*  Over the past five years the uranium spot price has surged from around US$10/lb to US$91/lb, its highest nominal level on record.

*  In the short term, the market is expected to remain tight, and reactors are expected to continue to struggle to secure sufficient primary supply in the face of waning secondary supplies.

*  The lion’s share of forecast growth in output comes from a small number of mines – any disruption to production at any of these mines is likely to have a major upward impact on spot prices.

*  Paladin has a solid asset suite, strong growth profile and significant leverage to a booming uranium price.

Sounds to me like a very good U play. Note that I have held this stock for the last 2 years and plan on keeping it


----------



## eMark

*Re: PDN - Paladin Resources*

Morning all.

Why the big drop in PDN today?

Cheers

eMark


----------



## nizar

*Re: PDN - Paladin Resources*



eMark said:


> Morning all.
> 
> Why the big drop in PDN today?
> 
> Cheers
> 
> eMark





Its come a fair way from $7.50...  
Its only giving back part of yesterdays rise... No dramas here...
In my opinion.


----------



## Prospector

*Re: PDN - Paladin Resources*

Well, PDN's hostile takeover target (SMM)is in a trading halt pending the announcement of a third party alternative.


----------



## eMark

*Re: PDN - Paladin Resources*



Prospector said:


> Well, PDN's hostile takeover target (SMM)is in a trading halt pending the announcement of a third party alternative.





Thanks Nizar

Prospector. 

With SMM being in a trading halt would probably account for the drop (uncertainty). Is an announcement expected today from a third party or SMM? The likelihood of PDN being successful seems slim at best? Then again I'm not that o-fay with hostile takeovers.


----------



## nizar

*Re: PDN - Paladin Resources*

Mark.
Less than 1% of SMM holders accepted PDNs offer.
(And if i held SMM, i would be one of them!)
Note than SMM also was in a trading halt yesterday.


----------



## eMark

*Re: PDN - Paladin Resources*



nizar said:


> Mark.
> Less than 1% of SMM holders accepted PDNs offer.
> (And if i held SMM, i would be one of them!)
> Note than SMM also was in a trading halt yesterday.




Thanks Nizar.

I see. I didn't note that SMM was in a trading halt yesterday. In that case it's hard to forsee the overall affect it will have on PDN's share price, whichever way it pans out. 

Overall the metal stocks appear to be cautious today, regardless of last nights metals performance


----------



## sleeper88

*Re: PDN - Paladin Resources*

for all those legal experts out there, what are the odds that PDN will lose to SMM's legal proceedings over the Mt Isa jv?


----------



## mmmmining

*Re: PDN - Paladin Resources*

I guess it is logical for Areva to takeover PDN as well. I guess it is more a defensive act for it to invest in SMM, rather than finding value. Cannot figure it out what is in French's mind. Invest a lot of money in a state that might never allow to mine. 

French vs QLD Government..


----------



## nizar

*Re: PDN - Paladin Resources*



mmmmining said:


> I guess it is logical for Areva to takeover PDN as well. I guess it is more a defensive act for it to invest in SMM, rather than finding value. Cannot figure it out what is in French's mind. Invest a lot of money in a state that might never allow to mine.
> 
> French vs QLD Government..




Obviously those big people are much more in the know than us.
Why did Borshoff take over Vulhalla and then go for SMM? 
For nothing? Based on probabilities?

Couple Borshoff's move with Areva now and its pretty clear that the big companies are confident QLD will allow mining. Or else they are opening up themselves to severe shareholder backlash and a plumetting share price.


----------



## purple

*Re: PDN - Paladin Resources*



nizar said:


> Obviously those big people are much more in the know than us.




Yep. CEOs move around in higher circles. Not insinuating any insider trading, but hints, words, gossip tends to move around.


----------



## motion

*Re: PDN - Paladin Resources*

hey guys,

Bought this as my first trade today seems like an interesting stock to watch at the moment. 

not sure if I got in to high or not but a good learning point. 

Rise PDN


----------



## Robbo1970

*Re: PDN - Paladin Resources*

what options for pdn if they dont get sumitt? will they look for a nearby site like URL?


----------



## Sean K

*Re: PDN - Paladin Resources*



Robbo1970 said:


> what options for pdn if they dont get sumitt? will they look for a nearby site like URL?



I'm not sure if they'll go for anything without a more advanced resource, at least close to JORC. They seem to want an Australian operation, and to be honest, I was surprised they pursued SMM after Beattie made his policy clear. Perhaps they are thinking much more strategic than me. The Mt Isa region could be one gigantic U mine in a few years. Other than SMM, where will they turn? I can't see why they would initially go anywhere but NT and SA in the short term. Pick the best independant resources there for potential takeover options...


----------



## Robbo1970

*Re: PDN - Paladin Resources*

thanks kennas. yes will keep looking for options. seems that if sumitt doesnt come off they will still be looking for something. you are right i suppose rann in south australia looks like the best option for one of the labour states and if the labour conference in a couple of weeks gives uranium the go ahead it might be the best state for them.

still hard to blv that a struggling stock 3 years ago is making such major plays. but anyway!


----------



## motion

*Re: PDN - Paladin Resources*

Morning, 

I see PDN has been placed into a trading halt. Would anyone know why this would happen ?

Thanks


----------



## Prospector

*Re: PDN - Paladin Resources*

Summit are in one too.  So maybe Court result, revised (again) takeover bid? Who knows....


----------



## motion

*Re: PDN - Paladin Resources*

Thanks Prospector  !

If this happens is it a good thing or can u be a bad thing as well ? Sorry new to all of this trading halt business. 

Thanks


----------



## Prospector

*Re: PDN - Paladin Resources*

Its getting hard to call this one.  It really could go either way, PDN is making a hostile bid for Summit, and the two are engaged in a court battle.  Time will tell!


----------



## motion

*Re: PDN - Paladin Resources*

Thanks for the info.. I guess I will wait!


----------



## James Capel

*Re: PDN - Paladin Resources*

No news is good news?  I seriously hope so with this one. Seems to be a very long trading halt.


----------



## eMark

*Re: PDN - Paladin Resources*

I don't have access to my broker site in order to read adobe acrobat announcements. Does this announcement indicate how long the trading halt will last for? Usually  they indicate when it's expected to reopen. Also I know about the takeover stuff, but what's this about a court battle? Has it gone that far? that could take a while....


----------



## PureCoco

*Re: PDN - Paladin Resources*

"The Summit board has resolved to unanimously recommend that all Summit shareholders accept Paladin’s increased offer."


----------



## James Capel

*Re: PDN - Paladin Resources*

so it took all day to come out with that !  ;-)


----------



## Fab

*Re: PDN - Paladin Resources*



James Capel said:


> so it took all day to come out with that !  ;-)




sounds like a great for PDN just before the ALP meeting which is likely to lift restriction on U mining


----------



## eMark

*Re: PDN - Paladin Resources*

Now it's down 35c this morning. What's going on? Profit taking?


----------



## dj_420

*Re: PDN - Paladin Resources*

ok so as a new shareholder (or future shareholder) of PDN from my SMM shares i have done a little run down on PDN.

uranium deposits (measured)

langer heinrich = 23 800 t
kayelekea (85%) = 10 850 t
manyingee = 12 000 t
oobagooma = 9 950 t
vulhulla = 26 900 t
skal = 5000 t
andersons = 2 100 t
watta = 1 720 t
bigrlyi (41.7%) = 5 200

total = 97 520 t = 214 544 000 pounds of uranium


SMM takeover 
SMM 197 440 020 shares = 
PDN 118 227 557 shares for scrip takeover

PDN shares before takeover = 500 961 538
total PDN shares after takeover = 698 401 558

market cap (assuming shareprice stays around 10.00) 6.98 billion
value of PDN per pound of uranium = $32.5

assumptions are that sp stays around $10 following takeover of SMM
PDN shares will be diluted however PDN have secured a great foothold in australian uranium mining now

PDN have some fantastic projects langer heinrich already in production with kayelekea coming online in next year or so, PDN are well poised to secure the bulk of the uranium boom.

from this analysis i will hold my shares when PDN completes takeover of SMM as i also feel that in upcoming uranium conference that PDN will be win/win

1 - they change 3 mines policy PDN is able to develop resources in australia
2 - they dont change 3 mines policy PDN is already producing and another to come online soon

so i see this as a great opportunity to enter PDN


----------



## Halba

*Re: PDN - Paladin Resources*

What about not including the following:

manyingee = 12 000 t
oobagooma = 9 950 t


These skew the figures. These are WA deposits and are meaningless in valuing PDN as WA won't be opened up anytime soon. Its more accurate to value the deposits which can produce.

I get closer to $40/lb without the WA deposits. PDN is expensive!


----------



## dj_420

*Re: PDN - Paladin Resources*

your kidding me! your going to nitpick my post over two deposits in WA

so by your calculations any uranium deposit in WA is worth zero, as well as any explorer in that area. also by your calculations the many many explorers in WA should have a shareprice of zero cents because they cannot produce.

IMO carpenter will not stay around forever, there is some serious international pressure been put on him to change his stance, he is now stating that the uranium in WA should be for their (WA) energy uses no one else! i think he is setting up a platform from which he can backflip without to much backlash.

PDN is also the only one producing or have more production coming online anytime soon. 

i think you will find that despite these deposits been in WA they are not discounted as ZERO value.

with PDN been exposed to uranium spot of $113 per pound i think we will find that they have a large market cap for one reason halba, they are PRODUCING URANIUM ALREADY.

PDN are building up stakes in very valuable assets, they have been doing so for a long time. maybe your upset because PDN didnt target MTN as a takeover target.

so ok EVEN if we discount the WA deposits, the $40 per pound valuation on PDN is only $8 more than SMM was valued at and they were only an explorer. i think you are not giving PDN any credit for already producing.


----------



## Julia

*Re: PDN - Paladin Resources*



eMark said:


> Now it's down 35c this morning. What's going on? Profit taking?




Possibly, but perhaps more likely a reaction to the acceptance of the deal with SMM where there has been some suggestion PDN has paid too much with their higher offer.  My expectation would be that this reaction will be short term.


----------



## Halba

*Re: PDN - Paladin Resources*



> dj_420:i think you are not giving PDN any credit for already producing.




I think PDN's returns from here are not going to be half as good as say a development company. Why invest in PDN? Just look at the returns for other u stocks. I am not attached to a company that produces, I look for the return.


----------



## Sean K

*Re: PDN - Paladin Resources*



Halba said:


> What about not including the following:
> 
> manyingee = 12 000 t
> oobagooma = 9 950 t
> 
> These skew the figures. These are WA deposits and are meaningless in valuing PDN as WA won't be opened up anytime soon. Its more accurate to value the deposits which can produce.




You are a tough nut to work out Halba. You don't value anything in WA but you jump on the bandwagon of a QLD/WA explorer like ECH:



Halba said:


> Very very interesting company:
> 
> My thoughts:
> 
> 4.5km airborne anomaly -  looks very promising, and with further airborne radiometrics it will be refined up and made clearer what they have.
> 
> So close to SMM tenements as well. Already got some good historical drills. Land very prospective.
> 
> Yeeliree south - very prospective tenements there next to BHP's mega deposit.
> 
> Overall not bad for a $19m company.
> 
> As a result I have taken a position. I don't expect news flow until mid to late next Month on their Yeeliree tenements.
> 
> This looks similar to Erongo(ERN) but it is in Australian properties near established deposits and big names.



Obviously, this one must be special.  

Having pointed out this inconsistancy, I agree PDN looks expensive, but has an incredible suite of assets and further potential exploration success across the world. Further acquisitions look likely IMO. I think they'll be striking while the iron's hot and using their current strong position to further increase their holdings. Eventually, could be one of the worlds top U producers.


----------



## dj_420

*Re: PDN - Paladin Resources*



Halba said:


> I think PDN's returns from here are not going to be half as good as say a development company. Why invest in PDN? Just look at the returns for other u stocks. I am not attached to a company that produces, I look for the return.




halba you seem quite certain that govt will overrule policy, you realise it could still swing the other way, then all the u stocks in australia will experience all that hot money coming out of the sector.

i was of half mind to sell all my SMM before conference, PDN have made up my mind for me, for PDN its a win/win situation.

and who do you think everyone will invest in if policy is NOT overturned halba, i would tend to go with a PRODUCER


----------



## Halba

*Re: PDN - Paladin Resources*

Huh kennas I am more optimistic in QLD changing policy but WA am not. ECH is mainly a QLD play. Fair enough, but Toronto market is not happy with PDN's deal with SMM and PDN is not in favour right now. It may change in a couple of weeks.


----------



## exgeo

*Re: PDN - Paladin Resources*

I read in SMM's target statement that a large proportion of their shares (SMM's) were in the hands of hedge funds. It might be reasonable to think that the same funds might have been into PDN as well, and now that the cards are finally on the table, they're packing up the camp and moving on to the next battleground. Therefore one might expect some short-term SP weakness as they sell out. That was my reasoning to myself for buying more anyway. Time will tell whether I was right or not. As one of the very few companies in the world with new mines either in production or coming online, they are going to attract a premium rating. The increased market cap. post the takeover will only serve to make the combined company more visible to large institutional investors looking for uranium exposure at almost any price. Of course in the past Cameco has served that role.


----------



## eMark

*Re: PDN - Paladin Resources*



Julia said:


> Possibly, but perhaps more likely a reaction to the acceptance of the deal with SMM where there has been some suggestion PDN has paid too much with their higher offer.  My expectation would be that this reaction will be short term.




Hi Julia. let's hope so. Another hit for PDN today. Following on from the TSX. Who's following who? When is the next Uranium auction price?


----------



## chance fate

*Re: PDN - Paladin Resources*

i like where the uranium spot price is going but US$ weakening is killing some of the benefit in the SP...   anyone got any predictions on where U-spot and US-$ might head...?


----------



## dlineinvestor

*Re: PDN - Paladin Resources*

It might be too early to mention but to all PDN holders/traders the s/p should strengthen from here  Based on Fib retracements ... end of day above 9.35 would be a good sign. Should PDN immed.. go onto another acquistion then we will be in a different kettle.
S/p well positioned to surge on any good uranium news.
Long term a great pick.


----------



## Sean K

*Re: PDN - Paladin Resources*



dlineinvestor said:


> It might be too early to mention but to all PDN holders/traders the s/p should strengthen from here  Based on Fib retracements ... end of day above 9.35 would be a good sign. Should PDN immed.. go onto another acquistion then we will be in a different kettle.
> S/p well positioned to surge on any good uranium news.
> Long term a great pick.



I think $9.00 might be a better point to start thinking about potential bottoms.  

Can you paste a chart with your fib points on it? Thanks.


----------



## R0n1n

*Re: PDN - Paladin Resources*

guys, how did u calculate Fib levels ?


----------



## professor_frink

*Re: PDN - Paladin Resources*



R0n1n said:


> guys, how did u calculate Fib levels ?




This will give you some examples of calculating fib levels

http://www.tradejuice.com/fibonacci/intro-to-fibonacci-nh.htm


----------



## ozeb

*Re: PDN - Paladin Resources*

Hi guys- i posted this in beginners lounge but was thought ppl in here might know what i am trying to say a bit better.

I understand that Summit resources has agreed with PDN for the take over.
I have purchased some Summit shares since the agreement (basically as I forgot to remove it from my outstanding list)
I am wondering if I am :
a) allowed to sell these shares to PDN at their new offer price
b) still hold on to them, and if I do, what happens to them after April 27th when PDN has closed their offer period

and what normally happens to people who still hold shares of a company which has been taken over but have not sold it to the new company?

Please help


----------



## jammin

*Re: PDN - Paladin Resources*

Kennas, The double top you describe as "pretty ugly" is of course relative to ones current holdings. Having only recently got onto the PDN train, long at $10.20, IMHO that double top looks positively hiddeous.


----------



## dlineinvestor

*Re: PDN - Paladin Resources*

Kennas,
It's looking more like a lower re-entry level as the day wears on. I'm long at the moment and holding with CFD's.
Not sure how to post charts (anyone feel free to PM me on how it's done) 
I just hope that no other aquisitions are ann... soon as I'm under the impression that further share dilution will occur. Some recent drilling news
"Major Drilling Program underway at Bigrlyi Uranium Project
Located in the N/T 390km N/W of Alice Springs and is a joint venture of Paladin Resources. In March 2007 an increase of 26% in uranium deposit was found at 43 drill holes."http://www.asx.com.au/asxpdf/20070419/pdf/31209002qlrcch.pdf


----------



## Sean K

*Re: PDN - Paladin Resources*



dlineinvestor said:


> Not sure how to post charts (anyone feel free to PM me on how it's done)



https://www.aussiestockforums.com/forums/showthread.php?t=6530


----------



## dlineinvestor

*Re: PDN - Paladin Resources*

$9.08 is the 50% fibonacci retracement level. A drop below this could signal a drop into the blue area. Volume is still increasing on the downward movement and a long entry now would be premature. Short term Paladin could be boosted with some good news.


----------



## Sean K

*Re: PDN - Paladin Resources*



dlineinvestor said:


> $9.08 is the 50% fibonacci retracement level. A drop below this could signal a drop into the blue area. Volume is still increasing on the downward movement and a long entry now would be premature. Short term Paladin could be boosted with some good news.



Thanks dline. This levels out with the $9.00 support line, so I'd expect it to at least pause there, pending a crash.


----------



## nizar

*Re: PDN - Paladin Resources*

Kennas i love your quote bro, its one of my favourites...
I need to watch wall street again, so i can be inspired.....


----------



## Sean K

*Re: PDN - Paladin Resources*



nizar said:


> Kennas i love your quote bro, its one of my favourites...
> I need to watch wall street again, so i can be inspired.....



LOL.   I had it playing over and over again today in the background. It inspired me. Gotta love those blue screens.  

Would GG buy PDN at the moment? hmmmm, maybe not.  Or, is it wreckable?


----------



## R0n1n

*Re: PDN - Paladin Resources*

Hey dlineinvestor,

What software did u use to draw that chart?

thanx.


----------



## rederob

*Re: PDN - Paladin Resources*

Only good time to buy a good stock is when it's cheap.
It's cheap.
I bought another 2k.
Reckon it's the easiest plus 20% gain I will make without a worry this year.
PDN was about $10.50 when uranium prices were around 75 cents - so we have a 50% gain in the uranium price, and a 10% fall in PDN's price.
The maths are compelling.


----------



## dlineinvestor

*Re: PDN - Paladin Resources*



R0n1n said:


> Hey dlineinvestor,
> 
> What software did u use to draw that chart?
> 
> thanx.



I use Bourse Live Data charting software, you don't see many Bourse users posting their charts as I've found out it's not a straight forward procedure but if other users would like to know how I'll post a step by step.
In regards to Paladin ... if no other factors like Asian market crashes or a large Brokerage house going bust then I would think the S/p should recover very soon. I'll wait for mid to high 8's before another entry. However as I've mentioned if PDN announces another target then...........hang on because the share may get diluted even more which is exactly what happened this time. Nothing wrong with the company or production just the market's perception that it's vulnerable at the moment.
News of some company in China wanting to secure an Australian Uranium miner would be nice


----------



## GRTRADER

*Re: PDN - Paladin Resources*

I wouldnt be surprised if we do see the Chinese sniffing around some more Aus uranium miners. Companies like PDN, DYL, WMT etc are probably quite cheap for them given the returns they could make with uranium at the prices it is these days


----------



## Fab

*Re: PDN - Paladin Resources*



GRTRADER said:


> I wouldnt be surprised if we do see the Chinese sniffing around some more Aus uranium miners. Companies like PDN, DYL, WMT etc are probably quite cheap for them given the returns they could make with uranium at the prices it is these days




Good point so I can see PDN buying DYL as it has got already 11%


----------



## dlineinvestor

*Re: PDN - Paladin Resources*

PDN making a nice recovery this avo, a drop in volume could signal some profit taking later in the day but much better than those dreaded 8's. Hope you topped up


----------



## GRTRADER

*Re: PDN - Paladin Resources*

Yeah I hope no one on the forum sold out when it dipped below $9.

Thats the problem I see with stop losses - they could have been triggered by that and then a couple of hours later the stock has shot up. Better to just keep a close eye on things and evaluate it yourself imo.


----------



## UraniumLover

*Re: PDN - Paladin Resources*

PDN up 4.52 % on TSX.  Should be massive day for u stocks tomorrow.


----------



## Sean K

*Re: PDN - Paladin Resources*

$9.00 proved very strong support.


----------



## philby3

*Re: PDN - Paladin Resources*

Regarding concerns about PDN's future acquisitions announcements diluting the share price, although it doesn't mean short-term, here is a bit of confirmation there will be more:

"Paladin eyeing another buy before year's end
(Wednesday, 18 April 2007)

PALADIN Resources managing director John Borshoff says the company's merger and acquisition ambitions have not yet been satisfied, with the uranium miner looking to carry out at least one more deal before the year is out."

(From mining news)


----------



## dlineinvestor

*Re: PDN - Paladin Resources*

Another rise in the price of Uranium would be nice as my out price as a short term trader is 10.00 ish. I'm bullish PDN but on the chart I would like to see the SS signal cross and move upward and the momentun turn around. A further reduction in the coming days volume would indicate a sell sooner than later. An Aussie favorite either way.


----------



## chance fate

*Re: PDN - Paladin Resources*

I've been tracking Paladin for a while and have recently jumped on board...  was wondering whether anyone else had observed that up until the recent correction the PDN SP which tracks the U3O8 spot almost 1$ for every $10 respectively..  had got ahead a dollar or so...  then with the correction currently the PDN SP at $9.50 is about $2.00 behind where correlation with the U3O8 price suggests it should be( i.e $113/ib from 16th April)...   seems the bulls have turned into bears...


----------



## Halba

*Re: PDN - Paladin Resources*

Chance fate are you taking into account dilution due to SMM?


----------



## Sean K

*Re: PDN - Paladin Resources*



Halba said:


> Chance fate are you taking into account dilution due to SMM?



Yes, but remember Halba, if you take into consideration the dilution, you have to take into consideration the 100m lbs (maybe) in the current targets, plus the potential in the Georgia Basin, plus the Iron Ore tenaments, plus base metals, plus any exploration potential. And also that they won't be able to mine the U anyway, when Rudd hands Beatboy the decision to allow mining or not!


----------



## chance fate

*Re: PDN - Paladin Resources*

$2 seems like a huge price to pay for dilution...  haven't done the maths but will do... cheers...


----------



## dlineinvestor

*Re: PDN - Paladin Resources*

Just imagine if Beattie does a back flip on Uranium !


----------



## chance fate

*Re: PDN - Paladin Resources*

yeah ...  Rudd will have a harder time getting elected if he can't get his possee to ride along with him on such an important issue..... he'll be cornered when it comes to debates concerning global warming..... if i'm holding at the time think i'll vote howard back in!!


----------



## chance fate

*Re: PDN - Paladin Resources*

I did some quick and dirty maths on the dilution effect:

Assumptions:
PDN @ $10 and 501 million shares
SMM @ $5 and 197 million shares

= $6 billion

PDN post acceptance of offer:

501 + 197/1.67 = 619 million shares

= 6000/619 = $9.69

Pretty much where we are now...  but underlying that is a uranium price of $95/lb...  so should expect $10.50 - 11.00 if $113/lb is confirmed ... hope it's more - and could be as apparently sellers are holding back stock in anticipation of being able to gain higher prices/bidding the market up.... anyone got the latest spot price??!!


----------



## Ruprect

*Re: PDN - Paladin Resources*

I wouldnt be worried about the Labor Party - they will change their Uranium policy this weekend at their conference. And Beattie has a track record of supporting good business opportunities for QLD. 

Beattie will support PDN in QLD, have no doubt about that.


----------



## Halba

*Re: PDN - Paladin Resources*

I hold Paladin shares (now) and have the following broker report for people to read:

http://searchservice.relegence.com/Acquisitions/Research/FirstCall/Content/210407/wwa61410.pdf


----------



## champ2003

*Re: PDN - Paladin Resources*



Halba said:


> I hold Paladin shares (now) and have the following broker report for people to read:
> 
> http://searchservice.relegence.com/Acquisitions/Research/FirstCall/Content/210407/wwa61410.pdf




Halba I'm a bit surprised that you hold PDN especially after reading that report as the broker certainly makes a big point that they don't recommend to buy PDN at current prices as the risks associated with that company are too high. All of the good news is already factored into the price.

Best regards

Champ


----------



## Halba

*Re: PDN - Paladin Resources*

Got them through my SMM shares , but I will hold them. I think the broker reports are a bit harsh myself. I think PDN mngmt is their main plus point, very aggressive and they will start up more mines as well which will support the SP. I guess with uranium prices $150-200lb, pdn should be okay. They are looking at North america starting up some mine there too. They probably need only one more producing project to give it the next leg up. At this stage Malawi and LH are factored in.


----------



## rederob

*Re: PDN - Paladin Resources*

It would be quite unusual for a company like PDN to not find more uranium, or increase it reserves/resource base substantially in coming years.
I think JB Were's analyst report is sound, based on what is known.
However, it ignores a fundamental market reality: The strong grow stronger.


----------



## doyoureallycare

*Re: PDN - Paladin Resources*

*With Summit conquered, Paladin ups Deep Yellow holding *

Tuesday, 17 April 2007
Paul Garvey

URANIUM miner Paladin Resources has toasted the success of its bid for Queensland uranium play Summit Resources by forking out more than $5.5 million to increase its stake in fellow Namibia-focused company Deep Yellow. 

Paladin spent $5.56 million or an average 48.5c per share to top up its Deep Yellow holding by 11.46 million shares.

With a previous stake of 10.6%, Paladin ranked as Deep Yellow's largest shareholder, and now controls 11.8% of the explorer's issued capital.

News of Paladin's top-up explained the heavy trading in Deep Yellow shares yesterday.

Some 23.6 million Deep Yellow shares changed hands as the company's share price moved from 50.5c at opening to 58c at the close.

Deep Yellow, which has a reputation as a favourite stock among day traders, has typically averaged turnover of between 2 million and 8 million shares per day.

The company was again the subject of heavy trading today, with 26.7 million shares changing hands as the company's share price lost 3.5c to 54.5c.

Deep Yellow's key asset is its Reptile project to the south and southwest of Paladin's flagship Langer Heinrich mine. 

Exploration work at Reptile by previous explorers has defined non-JORC compliant resources containing 18,000 tonnes of uranium oxide, and much of Deep Yellow's work has focused on verifying that historical work. 

Last Friday, Deep Yellow began a reverse circulation drilling program at Reptile, with first results from that work expected in as little as five weeks.

Deep Yellow director Martin Kavanagh told MiningNews.net he attributed today's heavy share volumes to profit-taking after yesterday's gain.

"Yesterday's heavy trading came on the back of the Summit-Paladin deal, and I suppose some people may have thought we might be on Paladin's radar, that we might be Paladin's next acquisition," Kavanagh said.

He added that any potential bid for Deep Yellow would need to overcome the fact the company's top 10 shareholders held around 50% of the company's stock, with executive chairman Leon Pretorius alone holding about 60 million shares.

Kavanagh said Deep Yellow had a good relationship with management at Paladin, with Deep Yellow having picked up one of its first uranium projects from Paladin.

Paladin sold Deep Yellow the Napperby uranium project in the Northern Territory, which has since been sold to Toro Energy.

Yesterday, Summit surprised many when it agreed to the terms of Paladin's revised takeover offer of one Paladin share for every 1.67 Summit shares held.

Paladin's shares had lost 57c to $9.83 by the close of trading today.


----------



## doyoureallycare

*Re: PDN - Paladin Resources*

*Paladin eyeing another buy before year's end*

Wednesday, 18 April 2007
Paul Garvey 
PALADIN Resources managing director John Borshoff says the company's merger and acquisition ambitions have not yet been satisfied, with the uranium miner looking to carry out at least one more deal before the year is out.

Fresh from winning the approval of the Summit Resources board for Paladin's billion-dollar bid for the Queensland-focused uranium play, Borshoff told MiningNews.net the company still had "three or four M&A targets lined up".

"Later this year should see something else, with a bit of luck," he said.

Borshoff said the company was aiming to build an asset base across Africa, Australia, Asia and North America. To date, Paladin holds the producing Langer Heinrich mine in Namibia, the advanced Kyalakera project in Malawi, and several exploration assets in Australia. 

A successful takeover of Summit will also deliver Paladin full control of the Valhalla uranium deposit in Queensland, part of Summit's broader Mt Isa project.

He said the company was treading carefully with its assessments of potential targets, given the current heat in uranium equities.

"We've got to make sure we're not going along with gay abandon, we have to make sure the opportunity is there. As you can imagine, we're getting offers all over the place," he said.

Borshoff's comments came as Paladin topped up its stake in Namibia-focused explorer Deep Yellow. On Monday, Paladin forked out $5.5 million to increase its holding in Deep Yellow from 10.6% to 11.8% (see separate story).

Borshoff said the Deep Yellow purchase was consistent with its policy of maintaining a strategic position in the junior.

He said he was attracted to Deep Yellow's suite of exploration assets in areas relatively under-explored for uranium, including 50,000 square kilometers of ground in the Tanami-Arunta desert of the Northern Territory.

"Lots of uranium companies at the moment are looking at the easy low-hanging fruit, which is not looking so good these days, but the future lies with companies looking in new areas," he said.

Borshoff added that the Deep Yellow investment would have gone ahead irrespective of the success of Paladin's bid for Summit.

Finally, Borshoff said the company would sit down with French group Areva – which last week brokered a template for a $250 million investment in Summit – to work out a new structure for that relationship.

Areva had been poised to take a significant equity stake in Summit, but with that agreement subject to approval by Summit shareholders, Borshoff said the two parties would need to revisit the structure of the deal.

He said the new Areva transaction would almost certainly not involve the French nuclear giant taking up equity in Paladin, with Borshoff indicating a joint venture would be the most likely solution.


----------



## PennyHopeful

*Re: PDN - Paladin Resources*

Old news. Why post that one week after it happened?


----------



## Holdon

*Re: PDN - Paladin Resources*

He must  have a long possie.....and panicking......IMO PDN will rise .....eventually...possibly sooner than we think....whatever, I dont hold.


----------



## chance fate

*Re: PDN - Paladin Resources*

If paladin gets big enough.. with enough new near term start-up projects under it's control it could become a significant strategic player - controlling the amount of unranium that's available to the market at any one time...  and so able to control prices rather than have to compete against other e.g. australian, producers...  just a macchiavellian thought....  but a good one!


----------



## chance fate

*Re: PDN - Paladin Resources*

April 23rd U3O8 spot=$113/lb  ref UxC site


----------



## Halba

*Re: PDN - Paladin Resources*

It will suffer short term due to dilution, but the closer we get to Malawi the more $$ cash flow PDN will generate so it'll go up.


----------



## chance fate

*Re: PDN - Paladin Resources*

.....interesting thing is if you do the same dilution calc using $113/lb i.e. assuming PDN would now be at $11.3 and SMM at $5.65 the resulting paladin price is around $10.90.....  agree the market has got to be working out what on earth PDN is worth right now... and given the uncertainty is erring on conservatism...  but by this calc the current 9.50'ish level seems cheap....


----------



## Fab

*Re: PDN - Paladin Resources*



chance fate said:


> .....interesting thing is if you do the same dilution calc using $113/lb i.e. assuming PDN would now be at $11.3 and SMM at $5.65 the resulting paladin price is around $10.90.....  agree the market has got to be working out what on earth PDN is worth right now... and given the uncertainty is erring on conservatism...  but by this calc the current 9.50'ish level seems cheap....




Yes I am thinking to buy more PDN and probably before the ALP meeting end of the week so I can get some upside to a likely decision of uranium mining to be allowed. I don't know that we can say 9.50 is cheap for PDN but if the alp changes its uranium policy now that PDN has bought SMM there should be some upside to PDN share price.


----------



## Go Nuke

*Re: PDN - Paladin Resources*



Fab said:


> Yes I am thinking to buy more PDN and probably before the ALP meeting end of the week so I can get some upside to a likely decision of uranium mining to be allowed. I don't know that we can say 9.50 is cheap for PDN but if the alp changes its uranium policy now that PDN has bought SMM there should be some upside to PDN share price.




THOUGH.....even if they do overturn it....it DOESN'T mean Premier Beatme will ok any mining.
He MAY choose not to.
Perhaps to keep the coal miners happy 

Just something to keep in Mind
After all that was 1 of the reasons SMM soldout to PDN.


:microwave


----------



## nizar

*Re: PDN - Paladin Resources*



Go Nuke said:


> THOUGH.....even if they do overturn it....it DOESN'T mean Premier Beatme will ok any mining.
> He MAY choose not to.
> Perhaps to keep the coal miners happy
> 
> Just something to keep in Mind
> After all that was 1 of the reasons SMM soldout to PDN.
> 
> 
> :microwave




Solid post.
Tend to agree.


----------



## dlineinvestor

*Re: PDN - Paladin Resources*

I'm very hopeful that the ALP will overturn their ban on more Uranium miners.
If they do overturn their decision that news will make it to main stream news and squeeze out the shorters of PDN resulting in an upsurge to PDN's S/P.


----------



## rederob

*Re: PDN - Paladin Resources*



dlineinvestor said:


> I'm very hopeful that the ALP will overturn their ban on more Uranium miners.
> If they do overturn their decision that news will make it to main stream news and squeeze out the shorters of PDN resulting in an upsurge to PDN's S/P.




There's always next year, if they don't change this year.
And next year the ALP will be in government federally, so I'm sure they can come up with some special research to show how going nuclear really will solve global warming after all - and we (the ALP) doesn't have its head buried in the sand!


----------



## eMark

*Re: PDN - Paladin Resources*

What do those who hold PDN think will happen to it's share price tommorrow and possibly over the next week, as a result of the ALP's decision on Saturday?


----------



## James Capel

*Re: PDN - Paladin Resources*

I only started my investing career this year and picked PDN and AGS - so far I have been very pleased (and lucky) with their upward moves.

I'm crossing everything and assuming that it will go up after the ALP and the government comments over the weekend. 

I read in amazement and appreciation the posts of some members and the level of knowledge they have about their shares and sectors. I have just come over from the AGS thread, some fantastic in depth comments in there about various U miners.

As a newbie-no-nothing investor I reckon upwards and thats only based on U being talked about positively over the weekend and nothing else 

Thanks to those who post charts and explanations, I for one an learning alot.


----------



## swhmale

*Re: PDN - Paladin Resources*

After the dramas of late feb/early march i hope to see a bit more upside in paladin after this weekend, but possibly the market thought the labor party decision was a done deal and has already factored it in. Time will tell. An interesting article on the U3O8 portal research section dated 19th april shows many uranium companies where management and directors have been cashing in options and selling at market, but aren't buying their own stock at market prices, but paladin management shows little sign of insider activity, suggesting they believe there to be a lot more upside to paladins SP.
 hopefully they are right.


----------



## thierry

*Re: PDN - Paladin Resources*

What does the technical analysis of PDN say atm? 

I was expecting PDN to go up, now that SMM is not going to blocked by political factors.. 

Also does anyone know how many uranium producers currently exist in the world? 

Thanks in advance..


----------



## eMark

*Re: PDN - Paladin Resources*

Well it appears that with no commitment from QLD re further uranium mining, the general nervousness in the market, coupled with maybe the upcoming NYMEX futures is hurting PDN?


----------



## dlineinvestor

*Re: PDN - Paladin Resources*

As much as I like PDN I tried shorting it yesterday but my platform wouldn't let me. Hard to say what the go is but if it hits 8's again I'll be holding long as long as nothing major has changed. It's well placed to surge should any good news affect Aus Uranium mining sector!


----------



## drmb

*Re: PDN - Paladin Resources*

Did I make a mistake signing the smm takeover deal? I see that PDN (which I also hold) has now got 62%. Just want to know if forum members think that it will at least get over the 80% so I can get some CGT relief. I think at this stage pdn should be talking with Areva and listening very hard to what it wants! Cheers


----------



## bigdog

*Re: PDN - Paladin Resources*



drmb said:


> Did I make a mistake signing the smm takeover deal? I see that PDN (which I also hold) has now got 62%. Just want to know if forum members think that it will at least get over the 80% so I can get some CGT relief. I think at this stage pdn should be talking with Areva and listening very hard to what it wants! Cheers




Would appreciate explanation of the following statement included above?

get over the 80% so I can get some CGT relief

-- how do you get relief if over 80%?


----------



## eMark

*Re: PDN - Paladin Resources*

I would hope that PDN is finding a bottom in the low 9's. It appears to be holding today. I check the TSX most nights (much to my disdain), and PDN over there has continued to fall the last few days. Surely it is due for some kind of boumce soon; that is apart from the 'correction' that we will no doubt have soon enough. Also posted in -  Uranium a raging bull.


----------



## drmb

*Re: PDN - Paladin Resources*



bigdog said:


> Would appreciate explanation of the following statement included above?
> 
> get over the 80% so I can get some CGT relief
> 
> -- how do you get relief if over 80%?



I have been accumulating SMM since mid August. I'm not an accountant but my understandng is that I must hold an asset for >12 months to avoid Capital Gains Tax of 50%. If I hold for >12 months and then sell I pay a lower CGT (25%?). If I swap scrip in a takeover and if the acceptance is under 80% then I pay 50% CGT. But if there are more than 80% acceptance I can continue to hold the new scrip as if I had bought them at the time of the original purchase. Please other members correct me if I am wrong!!!


----------



## Mousie

*Re: PDN - Paladin Resources*



drmb said:


> I have been accumulating SMM since mid August. I'm not an accountant but my understandng is that I must hold an asset for >12 months to avoid Capital Gains Tax of 50%. If I hold for >12 months and then sell I pay a lower CGT (25%?). If I swap scrip in a takeover and if the acceptance is under 80% then I pay 50% CGT. But if there are more than 80% acceptance I can continue to hold the new scrip as if I had bought them at the time of the original purchase. Please other members correct me if I am wrong!!!




drmb,

I'm no accountant as well but the way I understand it is you gotta ask yourself: What's your highest personal marginal tax rate (provided you're investing as an individual)?

From there, if you sell (means getting the cash proceeds from the sale) after <12 months, you're taxed at your highest PMTR (45%, 30%, 15%, or 0%, someone correct my percentages if I'm wrong) on the sale. If you sell after >12 months, that's half of your highest PMTR (i.e. 22.5%, 15%, 7.5%, or 0%).

But in this case where you're getting PDN shares in exchange for SMM ones, you're NOT getting taxed on your acquisition of PDN shares, as it is not a realised gain. You'll only get taxed according to the explanation above once you sell your acquired PDN shares.

Hope this helps


----------



## dj_420

*Re: PDN - Paladin Resources*



Mousie said:


> drmb,
> 
> I'm no accountant as well but the way I understand it is you gotta ask yourself: What's your highest personal marginal tax rate (provided you're investing as an individual)?
> 
> From there, if you sell (means getting the cash proceeds from the sale) after <12 months, you're taxed at your highest PMTR (45%, 30%, 15%, or 0%, someone correct my percentages if I'm wrong) on the sale. If you sell after >12 months, that's half of your highest PMTR (i.e. 22.5%, 15%, 7.5%, or 0%).
> 
> But in this case where you're getting PDN shares in exchange for SMM ones, you're NOT getting taxed on your acquisition of PDN shares, as it is not a realised gain. You'll only get taxed according to the explanation above once you sell your acquired PDN shares.
> 
> Hope this helps




yes but the date that you get CGT relief will be from the time you purchased your SMM shares not when you recieved your PDN shares, thats the issue most people will be concerned with.


----------



## Mousie

*Re: PDN - Paladin Resources*



dj_420 said:


> yes but the date that you get CGT relief will be from the time you purchased your SMM shares not when you recieved your PDN shares, thats the issue most people will be concerned with.




Nice completion to my points dj, wholly agreed upon  Argh still no 100 characters yet??!! (sighing LOL)


----------



## drmb

*Re: PDN - Paladin Resources*



Mousie said:


> Nice completion to my points dj, wholly agreed upon  Argh still no 100 characters yet??!! (sighing LOL)



 Thanks, I think I understand. Maybe I'll leave it to the accountant! Thanks, I think I understand. Maybe I'll leave it to the accountant! (100 ?)


----------



## barney

*Re: PDN - Paladin Resources*



Mousie said:


> Nice completion to my points dj, wholly agreed upon  Argh still no 100 characters yet??!! (sighing LOL)






Hey Mouse, I think counting all the spaces, the "Smiley Face" and the parenthesis etc, you made 104 ................ Not sure that spaces count though  


Thanks, I think I understand. Maybe I'll leave it to the accountant! Thanks, I think I understand. Maybe I'll leave it to the accountant! (100 ?)


You've solved the dilemma DRMB............. we simply have to repeat ourselves, repeat ourselves.

Back on topic ........ PDN, great stock!! Looks to be settling into a trading range atm ($9.20-$10.00) Many suspect a general market correction soon (I think within 2-3 weeks) ............ if that happens, good buying op. imo.


----------



## Go Nuke

*Re: PDN - Paladin Resources*

Paladin doesn't pay dividends does it?

Is there a posibility that they will in the future?


----------



## Mousie

*Re: PDN - Paladin Resources*



barney said:


> Hey Mouse, I think counting all the spaces, the "Smiley Face" and the parenthesis etc, you made 104 ................ Not sure that spaces count though




Oops only saw this today...

LOL Barney you actually counted?? Darn...I think spaces are in; should've cut out the smiley and one/two/three "!" perhaps - that'll be what I call *brilliantly accurate accidents* or "BAA"  which pretty much characterises sheep anyway


----------



## Kauri

*Re: PDN - Paladin Resources*

On the bigger picture PDN has a ways upwards to go yet, on the shorter timeframe picking when the uptrend will resume and finding a good entry point is more difficult. Not much buy vol support recently, maybe it needs to get the SMM-Areva business completed, after all not many co's that are actively involved in taking over another co. have their share price increase during the takeover process.


----------



## barney

*Re: PDN - Paladin Resources*



Mousie said:


> Oops only saw this today...
> 
> LOL Barney you actually counted?? Darn...I think spaces are in; should've cut out the smiley and one/two/three "!" perhaps - that'll be what I call *brilliantly accurate accidents* or "BAA"  which pretty much characterises sheep anyway






LOL,  You got me! I did count .........What does that say about me???  I think the 100 rule is a bit??    , (sorry Joe), .........  I think some people have the ability to say lots of important stuff in under 100 ch. (eg. Snake ........... man of few words)  Just m.o.   ........... Cheers.


----------



## Mousie

*Re: PDN - Paladin Resources*



barney said:


> LOL,  You got me! I did count .........What does that say about me???




Well in case you ARE counting *sheep* to doze off  , guess the 100-character rule can come in pretty handy for that purpose?


----------



## davidlu

*Re: PDN - Paladin Resources*

Uranium Future Opens Higher Today 
The June uranium future is now trading for $140 per pound. The bid is 135 and the ask is 144.   


http://redhotresources.blogspot.com/.../label/uranium


----------



## Sean K

*Re: PDN - Paladin Resources*



davidlu said:


> Uranium Future Opens Higher Today
> The June uranium future is now trading for $140 per pound. The bid is 135 and the ask is 144.
> 
> 
> http://redhotresources.blogspot.com/.../label/uranium




Are you going to attach this to every uranium stock you own David? LOL  

Maybe a better place would have been in the 'Uranium, a Raging Bull' thread, where I actually think it already is. Cheers.


----------



## davidlu

*Re: PDN - Paladin Resources*

PDN up 2.43% on TSX.


----------



## eMark

*Re: PDN - Paladin Resources*

Once again PDN was up on the TSX last night, but we are down 16c today? It just seems to be stuck in a trading range at the moment. Which is ok I guess, I just thought with the NYMEX uranium futures doing well, there would be a bit more spark in the ol' fella.


----------



## Gundini

*Re: PDN - Paladin Resources*



eMark said:


> Once again PDN was up on the TSX last night, but we are down 16c today? It just seems to be stuck in a trading range at the moment. Which is ok I guess, I just thought with the NYMEX uranium futures doing well, there would be a bit more spark in the ol' fella.




You would think it has to hold the $9 level, or next stop around the $8 mark.

Not holding, but tempted at these prices. Pretty solid downtrend though.


----------



## dlineinvestor

*Re: PDN - Paladin Resources*

May 11th

Waiting for some kind of confirmation for a long position, not much to go on. Will have to play the waiting game a little longer. Good company, great future only positive might be to accumulate while SP is depressed.


----------



## Go Nuke

*Re: PDN - Paladin Resources*

It seems like alot of Uranium stocks are in a downward trend at the moment.

Surprised really, though the whole industry has been talked up alot lately.

And someone did say that the Uranium industry was about due for a correction across the board. Combined with that whole "May is a good time not to be in stocks" crap.

:microwave


----------



## eMark

*Re: PDN - Paladin Resources*



Go Nuke said:


> And someone did say that the Uranium industry was about due for a correction across the board. Combined with that whole "May is a good time not to be in stocks" crap.
> 
> :microwave




Was about due a correction? Or has had some type of subdued pullback? The Uranium price is still high, but a lot of Uranium stocks are languishing.

I'm not comparing Zinc to Uranium, but two particular Zinc stocks that had been in the doldrums for a while have staged a comeback. Based on nothing paticular at all, I am hoping the stocks like Paladin & Alliance regain favour sometime soon, after many weeks in the wilderness.

I for one hold PDN around $9.60, and frankly I'm not sure what to do. I should just hold (I learnt that lesson again after selling ZFX because I lost patience - only to see it rise $3 ) Is $9.60 a good price? I don't know, I don't think anyone knows. If we have another correction I could easily see my $$'s at $7.50 again.... With the ASX on the rise, and having this languish is frustrating. This stock could suffer even further if we correct soon. Good for some.

Paladin managed a 1c rise on the TSX last night, and that was after the TSX hitting all time highs and the DOW zooming back up a 100 points or so. Not much confidence huh? Will we ever see $10.80 again, or will $10.80 be something that is one day looked back upon as a relatively cheap buy.

It's producing yes! It is in the middle of a takeover with SMM, which is probably diluting the stock somewhat, yes! There are not many negatives. The last thing I want to do is cut n' run, only to see it rise a few signifigant dollars. 

Does anyone have any fresh info re the rating on this stock from the various publications around.


----------



## rederob

*Re: PDN - Paladin Resources*



eMark said:


> Does anyone have any fresh info re the rating on this stock from the various publications around.




eMark
I kept my zinc stock from last year, tho was wondering if it was the right thing to do: So far so good!
As for PDN, don't read the publications, read the "expert" websites - where the companies that provide info to the uranium industry post their stuff.
PDN is the biggest recent producer to come on line, and has not been hamstrung by the long term contracts that pervade BHP and ERA.
All markets that are in supply deficits experience good growth, but in phases.
In a fashion the Elliott waves can reproduce these effects, but I prefer my own skills (which falter short term but are long term pretty good).
So, if you are serious about owning an equity with massive upside potential, and you overlooked PDN, look for "bloody idiot" adorned on you forehead next time you look in the mirror.
Those that are traders would be better off waiting for a buy signal: I don't think that will come until SMM is locked down: In this regard you can see what happened to MGX when it too shook off the shackles of a smaller company takeover the other week.


----------



## eMark

*Re: PDN - Paladin Resources*

Redrob. Thankyou for your frank, and somewhat amusing reply: 



rederob said:


> eMark
> As for PDN, don't read the publications, read the "expert" websites - where the companies that provide info to the uranium industry post their stuff.




Can you provide me with links to these websites? I would like to eduacte myself further.



rederob said:


> PDN is the biggest recent producer to come on line, and has not been hamstrung by the long term contracts that pervade BHP and ERA.
> All markets that are in supply deficits experience good growth, but in phases.
> 
> So, if you are serious about owning an equity with massive upside potential, and you overlooked PDN, look for "bloody idiot" adorned on you forehead next time you look in the mirror.




I'll take that last comment as a big fat positive endorsement for PDN, because I sure as hell have "bloody idiot" adorned on my forehead re ZFX this time 'round.


----------



## rederob

*Re: PDN - Paladin Resources*

eMark
http://www.uxc.com/
go to the idustry links section and search your heart out
- includes every miner/explorer by nation, so handy
look at the recent reports of major producers, like Cameco and Areva
- they also have additional links, such as to industry associations

http://www.321energy.com/archives.php?c=nuclear has topical articles


----------



## chance fate

*Re: PDN - Paladin Resources*

... with rumour of BHPB and Rio merger recently could this be signaling perhaps a period of industry consolidation ... and PDN + SMM.... if that's the case it may be well worth hanging on to PDN for the longhaul - a Rio (another) + PDN merger would see quite some uranium assets in the hands of a single entity with consequent ability to manage the supply side....


----------



## Gurgler

*Re: PDN - Paladin Resources*



Gundini said:


> You would think it has to hold the $9 level, or next stop around the $8 mark.




I would think resistance would more likely be $8.50, but possibly there will be something in today's quarterly report that will encourage a change in sp direction. Is this MACD about to turn?


----------



## eMark

*Re: PDN - Paladin Resources*



Gurgler said:


> I would think resistance would more likely be $8.50, but possibly there will be something in today's quarterly report that will encourage a change in sp direction. Is this MACD about to turn?




Gurgler

Could you please tell me what is MACD? Excuse my ignorance. 

Also you said a quarterly report is out today?


----------



## Gurgler

*Re: PDN - Paladin Resources*



eMark said:


> Gurgler
> 
> Could you please tell me what is MACD? Excuse my ignorance.




You're not the only one in the dark: I'm no expert. Here's a definition from: http://www.technicalindicators.com/techexpl.htm

*MOVING AVERAGE CONVERGENCE/DIVERGENCE (MACD): 

This is a simple convergence of two moving averages, i.e., the average price line for the past week crossing over (either up or down) the average price line for the past two weeks. A rising MACD indicates the shorter average is crossing over the longer average, thus indicating a rising price. 

As the price falls back the shorter price line will decline towards the longer average. When the lines meet it is considered neutral - a decline below neutral usually indicates a short term declining trend. 

This indicator is best used when confirmed by other indicators. 

Occasionally we will call this neutral if there is very little difference between the two averages or if no trend is discernible.*

Actually, on reflection, the Stochastic may indicate the stock is oversold. I'm still very much feeling my way with these indicators. 



eMark said:


> Also you said a quarterly report is out today?




Yes, according to FN Arena the Jan-Mar report is due today..


----------



## dlineinvestor

*Re: PDN - Paladin Resources*

May 14 th 11:21 am
No long confirmation yet...
Need volume of 2 mill and any type of bullish candle today to get closer to  the first signal level of 9.35, then on to breakout at 9.60. 
If 9.35 to 9.60 is reached with good volume PDN could be on it's way. Good news would also confirm this move.
Slow Stochastic declining.
Wait.


----------



## Go Nuke

*Re: PDN - Paladin Resources*

Looks like your candle barely grew much today.

I also think once this business with Summit is all taken care of, PDN will be underway again.
eMark, Im reletively new to shares but I cant see what would potentialy stop PDN {or BMN} for looking like a ERA in the future.
Paladin has a great Uranium mine in a low cost nation and the way I see things, unlike other commodities like Nickel etc, I believe the world will increasingly need more and more energy. Now we all know that so many counteries are turning to nuclear power including our own {and Iran unfortunately} though i could see an *oversupply* of other commodoties when building etc starts to slow.

The chinese economy surley cant keep its growth going at the rate it is has been without having a meltdown in the near future if its not brought into check.

So what my thoughts are is that there will eventually be an oversupply of materials like nickel in the fututre, but I just cant see the same happening for Uranium for some time yet.

Im happy to be apart of PDN {through the SMM takeover}.
Actually my biggest worry at the moment...would be the Dow Jones! It seems to have so much influence over the market and has had an awesome bull run lately. Im just worried what it going to do to my other stocks when it starts to come down *Going by my charts and the MACD line*

Best of luck mate


----------



## eMark

*Re: PDN - Paladin Resources*



Go Nuke said:


> Actually my biggest worry at the moment...would be the Dow Jones! It seems to have so much influence over the market and has had an awesome bull run lately. Im just worried what it going to do to my other stocks when it starts to come down *Going by my charts and the MACD line*
> 
> Best of luck mate




Thanks Go Nuke on your thoughts. I agree, the DOW, and the inevitable correction, May, June, July who cares, it will come........has the potential to rip a couple of dollars of PDN's share price because of the sometime speculative nature of this stock. 

Although we are sitting at low 9's now rather than high 10's, so it's been given a beating anyway over the last few weeks, regardless of the market heading north. I still don't know whether that would be enough to protect it from another overall correction, it's just a lower base to fall from. That would hurt me, but if I could just come to terms with the fact that long term it won't really matter, (you just hold, and miss out on a lower entry point)..........Or, this stock will dance upwards in very near future, who knows?


----------



## Go Nuke

*Re: PDN - Paladin Resources*

Thats true mate you just dont know!

I got alittle burnt just recently when i thought BMN would rocket upwards when the released their initail resource estimate......in fact...it hit a low of something like $3.12 {something like that} from the $3.47 that i bought some short tem shares at

I guess Im not too worried because I KNOW they will get them to where I want..but the market is so strange sometimes.
Even with fantastic news the SP can still go any which way.

Personaly though I see that on the 5th of March the DOW hit a big low of $120.3. If you compare that to PDN it also hit a  huge low of $7.45. Oh how I wish i had the money to buy in at that price.
Therefore I dont think its out of the question for PDN to drop low like this again if the DOW ...sorry WHEN the DOW has another correction.

But I would DEFINITELY not be selling. PDN has a long way to go yet and doesn't have those hedged Uranium prices that the other miners have. They will be able to take advantage of the increasing U price i believe.

**Then again, I might be bias becasue Im not trading for short term gains.** {Except my BMN stuff up}


----------



## champ2003

*Re: PDN - Paladin Resources*



Go Nuke said:


> Thats true mate you just dont know!
> 
> I got alittle burnt just recently when i thought BMN would rocket upwards when the released their initail resource estimate......in fact...it hit a low of something like $3.12 {something like that} from the $3.47 that i bought some short tem shares at
> 
> I guess Im not too worried because I KNOW they will get them to where I want..but the market is so strange sometimes.
> Even with fantastic news the SP can still go any which way.
> 
> Personaly though I see that on the 5th of March the DOW hit a big low of $120.3. If you compare that to PDN it also hit a  huge low of $7.45. Oh how I wish i had the money to buy in at that price.
> Therefore I dont think its out of the question for PDN to drop low like this again if the DOW ...sorry WHEN the DOW has another correction.
> 
> But I would DEFINITELY not be selling. PDN has a long way to go yet and *doesn't have those hedged Uranium prices that the other miners have*. They will be able to take advantage of the increasing U price i believe.
> 
> **Then again, I might be bias becasue Im not trading for short term gains.** {Except my BMN stuff up}



](doesn't have those hedged Uranium prices that the other miners have)
Actually PDN is 50% hedged as far as i know.


----------



## Go Nuke

*Re: PDN - Paladin Resources*

Would people agree that $9 would be good support for PDN?

Definitely going into oversold territory now!


----------



## Go Nuke

*Re: PDN - Paladin Resources*



champ2003 said:


> ](doesn't have those hedged Uranium prices that the other miners have)
> Actually PDN is 50% hedged as far as i know.




Sorry Champ you are probably right.
Do you know what they are selling their Uranium for?
Im sure it will be more than ERA is locked in at


----------



## eMark

*Re: PDN - Paladin Resources*

Paladin Announces Third Quarter Financial Results to March 31, 2007

Just announced prior to the TSX opening. So far it doesn't look like the market likes it a whole lot.

Down 29c so far.

Had a look through the report (yes I'm awake, working the night shift, yes working, as in till 7.30am) and this is what I found.

"Production to the end of June is expected to be in the vicinity of 400,00lbs to 600,000lbs, with the drop in stated production due to the downtime experienced in the early ramp-up phase in January and February".

Damn, and I was looking for some good news to prop this stcok up.


----------



## drmb

*Re: PDN - Paladin Resources*



eMark said:


> Paladin Announces Third Quarter Financial Results to March 31, 2007 Just announced prior to the TSX opening. So far it doesn't look like the market likes it a whole lot. Down 29c so far. Had a look through the report (yes I'm awake, working the night shift, yes working, as in till 7.30am) and this is what I found.
> "Production to the end of June is expected to be in the vicinity of 400,00lbs to 600,000lbs, with the drop in stated production due to the downtime experienced in the early ramp-up phase in January and February". Damn, and I was looking for some good news to prop this stcok up.




Just sitting in Frankfurt airport waiting for the SQ to Singa and noticed PDN.TO down 5% Toronto 2pm, seems like the Canucks have spotted that line as well.  Hoping that once SMM business is finished then we can get going again. But may be starting from a new base.


----------



## eMark

*Re: PDN - Paladin Resources*



drmb said:


> Just sitting in Frankfurt airport waiting for the SQ to Singa and noticed PDN.TO down 5% Toronto 2pm, seems like the Canucks have spotted that line as well.  Hoping that once SMM business is finished then we can get going again. But may be starting from a new base.



Yes, it's not pretty at all, and doesn't hold well for our market today. I hold PDN, so I'm not looking for a new entry point as such, but rather watching my self drift away from my BUY.

Last Trade: 7.97 on TSX
Trade Time: 2:42PM ET 
Change:  Down 0.52 (6.12%)


----------



## Gurgler

*Re: PDN - Paladin Resources*

Whoa! Opened 8.82, quickly down to 8.51 - and bounced a little (and the market down only 33 points). Where to from here? Could be an interesting day!


----------



## Kauri

*Re: PDN - Paladin Resources*

Possibly a bit early yet, but may be a good place to start looking for a bottom?? Vol and price action should give a clue over the next couple of days..


----------



## chance fate

*Re: PDN - Paladin Resources*

..was there really anything in the report that the market didn't know already... ? perhaps there was a desire to read something that the market could use as a trigger for upward movement...  in the absense of that it would be easy to be bearish...


----------



## dlineinvestor

*Re: PDN - Paladin Resources*

Was awfully tempted to go in @ low this morning. 
Accumulating now could be a strategy if your pockets are deep enough.
There will be plenty of $ gains when this one gets back on it's trend.
Waitng now for break out confirmation.


----------



## thierry

*Re: PDN - Paladin Resources*

There was good support @ 8.50... 

next few days should be interesting.. 

Could be a good buying oppurtunitiy again...


----------



## doyoureallycare

*Re: PDN - Paladin Resources*

Can I ask a question to Paladin Shareholders?

Did any shareholders ask Paladin why they invested more cash into Deep Yellow?

I'm curious.


----------



## the barry

*Re: PDN - Paladin Resources*



eMark said:


> Paladin Announces Third Quarter Financial Results to March 31, 2007
> 
> Just announced prior to the TSX opening. So far it doesn't look like the market likes it a whole lot.
> 
> Down 29c so far.
> 
> Had a look through the report (yes I'm awake, working the night shift, yes working, as in till 7.30am) and this is what I found.
> 
> "Production to the end of June is expected to be in the vicinity of 400,00lbs to 600,000lbs, with the drop in stated production due to the downtime experienced in the early ramp-up phase in January and February".
> 
> Damn, and I was looking for some good news to prop this stcok up.





Interestingly, in the long run provided the spot price keeps going up, the longer it takes paladin to get to full production the better it will be for the share price in the long run. Thats making a big assumption that the spot price will keep going up.


----------



## dlineinvestor

*Re: PDN - Paladin Resources*

PDN has gone past the 61.8% retracement. If it doesn't turn soon it will turn to the support level of $8.17. I would like to think that the SP will turn around before then. $8.40 is the half way price from todays close $8.62 to suport of $8.17. At this rate of decline since it's high PDN is dropping an average .30 per week. One more week and a half gives us $8.17 
IMO it is unlikely it will break support. Weekly volume is declining, the only indicator we have to go on at present so a turn around before $8.40 could be expected.


----------



## Holdon

*Re: PDN - Paladin Resources*

Insto's will take it down to close to $8 and take the panic sellers out on double top theory then it may go gangbusters.....IMO....$8.15 and I might consider it as a long trade...maybe.........


----------



## philby3

*Re: PDN - Paladin Resources*

hi, as you guys understand a lot more than me regarding SP & the market, I'm just wondering if anyone can give me an answer to a couple of questions:

1) How long will the Areva hearing generally take before a ruling/conclusion is arrived at, and, what are your opinions on the outcome/SP if the ruling is a) in favour of PDN or b) in favour of Areva.

2) If the ruling is in favour of Areva, is the quantity of U to be marketed by Areva based only on a percentage of SMM original 50% share?


----------



## eMark

*Re: PDN - Paladin Resources*

Re - dlineinvestors comment

_*PDN has gone past the 61.8% retracement. If it doesn't turn soon it will turn to the support level of $8.17. I would like to think that the SP will turn around before then. $8.40 is the half way price from todays close $8.62 to suport of $8.17. At this rate of decline since it's high PDN is dropping an average .30 per week. One more week and a half gives us $8.17 
IMO it is unlikely it will break support. Weekly volume is declining, the only indicator we have to go on at present so a turn around before $8.40 could be expected.*_

Well PDN came perilously close to $8.40 today, it wanted so bad march right through. Do you think that this will hold? I hope so, but I don't think so. What is going on? It just keeps getting beaten up every other day. I assume if the DOW has a bad night tonight or there are no further Uranium contracts passed, it will continue downwards? But then again, even if the DOW has a good night, it doesn't take notice. Not that I'm trying to string the two together, I'm just trying to determine what's next


----------



## eMark

*Re: PDN - Paladin Resources*

Hello again.

Just posting an article from FN Arena in the PDN thread supplied to me by Pommiegranite.

*Uranium Shares Look A Lot Less Bullish
FN Arena News - May 17 2007* 

The Tech Wizard has kept shares of Energy Resources of Australia (ERA) firmly on his radar since last year.

Ever since the world's largest producer of uranium, Canada's Cameco, announced it had problems with the ramp up of its highly promising Cigar Lake mine, spot uranium has been in an stark uptrend – and so have ERA shares.

This time around it would appear ERA price action looks has consolidated at levels between $23.00 and $28.00.

The Wizard believes the outlook for ERA shares is very much dependant on the future price of uranium. Given the tightness in the market he thinks it is unlikely spot uranium will fall anytime soon.

From a technical point of view, it would take a fall below the $20.00 level to suggest the bull run is over. The Tech Wizard is of the view that with a bullish MACD indicator and with uranium still in short supply, such an outcome is rather unlikely.

For fellow uranium producer Paladin Resources (PDN), however, it would seem the outlook appears more challenging.

*The Tech Wizard believes key resistance for Paladin sits at $10.80*. And as proven in the past resistance here is pretty strong.

Paladin's price action has come back $2.00 since the shares failed in their attempt to break through the above mentioned resistance level. At this point in time, *Paladin shares are trading below their 20 moving average* and that, the Wizard highlights, is not a good sign.

He notes the *MACD indicator is bullish but showing divergence*. He explains this indicates there is an inherent weakness in the share price.

*Paladin shares need to move back above the 20 m/a, says the Wizard, or else they are likely to fall to the bottom Bollinger band support level.*

The Wizard believes there is solid support for the shares at the $7.80 -$8.00 level.

-------------------------------------------------------------------------

Firstly what is PDN's 20 moving average?

Secondly what is PDN's Bollinger band support level?

Thirdly what is PDN's MACD indicator? (or is that the same thing as the 20 moving average?)

Thankyou.


----------



## dlineinvestor

*Re: PDN - Paladin Resources*

Some of the most successful traders simply trade by looking at a chart and deciding right then and there whether it's in an up or down trend and trade it.

For the last three days we've seen an incredible tug of war between buyers and sellers, then the DOW weakened and the result -3.97% today !
This tug of war also says, "finding support" unfortunately this is going to be on a day to day basis until the break out price and eventual trend is established.
There are no definative answers just possible outcomes, charting is a picture, a picture that say's, "what it is now not what u want it to be". 
If you are an investor then news, spot price of uranium,world news etc. and company profile will be very important to you. But if you trade short term then what the graph shows now is where SP direction is heading. Trading accordingly will be where your profits will come from. 
If you want to own PDN for the long term then accumulating now would be your priority.


----------



## bumble_boo_bum

*Re: PDN - Paladin Resources*

Big News

Article in Weekend Australian:

"Summit-Paladin deal unacceptable: panel

The Takeovers Panel delivered a stunning blow to the credibility of U players Summit Resources and Paladin Resources joint venture partners in one of Australia's biggest untapped uranium deposits.  The panel made a decleration of unacceptable circumstances over Paladin's 1.3 billion bid for Summit acting on a complaint from Areva ... But it stopped short of issuing any orders for Paladin to honour any previous deal between Summit and Areva ... 'The panels decision not to make orders should not be taken as the panel considering that Paladin and Summit have acted satisfactorily.' "

Full steam ahead to May 25.

Also heard the spot price of U is up, anyone heard this.

Cheers


----------



## greggy

*Re: PDN - Paladin Resources*



bumble_boo_bum said:


> Big News
> 
> Article in Weekend Australian:
> 
> "Summit-Paladin deal unacceptable: panel
> 
> The Takeovers Panel delivered a stunning blow to the credibility of U players Summit Resources and Paladin Resources joint venture partners in one of Australia's biggest untapped uranium deposits.  The panel made a decleration of unacceptable circumstances over Paladin's 1.3 billion bid for Summit acting on a complaint from Areva ... But it stopped short of issuing any orders for Paladin to honour any previous deal between Summit and Areva ... 'The panels decision not to make orders should not be taken as the panel considering that Paladin and Summit have acted satisfactorily.' "
> 
> Full steam ahead to May 25.
> 
> Also heard the spot price of U is up, anyone heard this.
> 
> Cheers




The weekly spot uranium price as of 14 May 07 is US$120. The price has remained unchanged for the past week. 
There's been a fair bit amonst uranium stocks of late.  This is perhaps largely due to profit taking. 
DYOR


----------



## achan168

*Re: PDN - Paladin Resources*



bumble_boo_bum said:


> Big News
> 
> Article in Weekend Australian:
> 
> "Summit-Paladin deal unacceptable: panel
> 
> The Takeovers Panel delivered a stunning blow to the credibility of U players Summit Resources and Paladin Resources joint venture partners in one of Australia's biggest untapped uranium deposits.  The panel made a decleration of unacceptable circumstances over Paladin's 1.3 billion bid for Summit acting on a complaint from Areva ... But it stopped short of issuing any orders for Paladin to honour any previous deal between Summit and Areva ... 'The panels decision not to make orders should not be taken as the panel considering that Paladin and Summit have acted satisfactorily.' "
> 
> Full steam ahead to May 25.
> 
> Also heard the spot price of U is up, anyone heard this.
> 
> Cheers




Sorry, I'm a newbie. Is this good news or bad news for Paladin? Any chance of it going $10+ again anytime soon?


----------



## eMark

*Re: PDN - Paladin Resources*



bumble_boo_bum said:


> Big News
> 
> Article in Weekend Australian:
> 
> "Summit-Paladin deal unacceptable: panel
> 
> The Takeovers Panel delivered a stunning blow to the credibility of U players Summit Resources and Paladin Resources joint venture partners in one of Australia's biggest untapped uranium deposits.  The panel made a decleration of unacceptable circumstances over Paladin's 1.3 billion bid for Summit acting on a complaint from Areva ... But it stopped short of issuing any orders for Paladin to honour any previous deal between Summit and Areva ... 'The panels decision not to make orders should not be taken as the panel considering that Paladin and Summit have acted satisfactorily.' "
> 
> Full steam ahead to May 25.
> 
> Also heard the spot price of U is up, anyone heard this.
> 
> Cheers




I read this too, I take it as a plus; that there will be no interuption to the takeover, although I couldn't determine whether Areva still have any power here. It should be a plus to the share price Monday....any opinions?


Yes the Uranium price was up on Friday night, as well as PDN's TSX share price.

*Uranium U308 Swap  Jun '07 15:53:10 134.90 s Up 4.90*

PDN - TSX

Last Trade: 7.93 
Trade Time: May 18 
Change:  *+ 0.18 (2.32%)*


----------



## bumble_boo_bum

*Re: PDN - Paladin Resources*



achan168 said:


> Sorry, I'm a newbie. Is this good news or bad news for Paladin? Any chance of it going $10+ again anytime soon?




What is your definition of soon?  

Re the news, it is good news.  It means there are no regulatory restrictions, from the Takeovers Panel, affecting Paladin's takeover of Summit.

It means the Takeovers Panel 'has not issued any orders for Paladin to honour the pervious deal between Summit and Areva for Areva to take an 18 per cent stake in the company and gain access to two-thirds of future production from Summit's 50 per cent share of Valhalla/Skal.'

The big question for me is can Areva sue Summit for breach of contract?  If they had an agreement, and it was binding, and Summit breach that agreement, then shouldn't it follow that Areva can sue for damanges?

Any company lawyers out their who can shed some light on this?


----------



## j4mesa

*Re: PDN - Paladin Resources*

My SHORT TERM concern here is that so far PDN acquired 68% and they still have around 32%  to go until 25 May with AREVA got around 10% state in SMM.


----------



## Yeti

*Re: PDN - Paladin Resources*

Just wondering if at this stage there could be any advantage for SMM holders to still hang on to their shares. Besides AREVA 's 10+%, some 28% of SMM shareholders have not accepted PDN's offer yet. Why? Are they still hoping to gain some advantage from not accepting? Any ideas?


----------



## rgcharmez

*Re: PDN - Paladin Resources*

If I accept and the whole takeover thing 'finishes' without PDN acquiring 80% acceptance, I incur CGT at 100% having held for less than 12 months. I don't know whether this a good reason not to accept but that's where I am at the minute.(Can you tell I'm a 'newbie'??!!)


----------



## dj_420

*Re: PDN - Paladin Resources*



j4mesa said:


> My SHORT TERM concern here is that so far PDN acquired 68% and they still have around 32%  to go until 25 May with AREVA got around 10% state in SMM.




you will find once they get to 80% majority will accept offer as CGT relief kicks in from this point


----------



## Kauri

*Re: PDN - Paladin Resources*

Starting to look a little interesting, however I personally will be waiting for a minor W1--W2 to form before I consider getting back on.. (still seems to be a bit of confusing conflict over the SMM-Areva deal??).


----------



## bigdog

*Re: PDN - Paladin Resources*

http://www.smh.com.au/news/Business...ladin-shares-up/2007/05/21/1179601321579.html

Relief sends Summit, Paladin shares up
May 21, 2007 - 6:39PM

Shares in Paladin Resources and the uranium company's takeover target Summit Resources rose on Monday on relief the pair won't face action from the takeovers watchdog.

The Takeovers Panel said late on Friday night it was disappointed with the conduct of Summit and joint venture partner and predator Paladin, but no orders would be taken against the duo.

The panel was responding to proceedings started by French nuclear giant Areva NC, which claimed the companies failed to give Summit shareholders an adequate chance to consider a $292.6 million strategic alliance it proposed to stymie Paladin's takeover bid.

The Areva alliance would have been an alternative to Summit's improved and recommended $1.18 billion takeover offer from Paladin.

Shareholders showed their relief with the panel's rap on the knuckles, Summit's shares gaining 21 cents or 4.2 per cent at $5.25 and Paladin adding 31 cents or 3.7 per cent to $8.76.

But the Takeovers Panel did not hold back in criticising the conduct of the pair.

"The Panel is disappointed with the quality and timeliness of the disclosure by Paladin and Summit and does not consider it to be an example of good market practice," the panel said in a statement.

"The panel does not consider that Summit shareholders have been well served in terms of the information both Paladin and Summit have provided about their intentions in relation to the Areva transaction."

But the panel defended its decision not to take any formal action.

"The panel's decision not to make orders should be viewed in light of the particular circumstances and should not be taken as the panel considering that Paladin and Summit have acted satisfactorily," it said.

"If the plan had considered that there were orders that would have been effective in remedying the effects of the unacceptable circumstances and were in the interests of current and former Summit shareholders, the panel would not have hesitated to make those orders."

The Paris-based Areva had snapped up a 10.46 per cent stake in Summit in a blow to Paladin, but said it was not interested in launching a full takeover offer for the target.

Paladin has secured over two thirds of the shares in its joint venture partner, ownership of which would give it total control over the Valhalla/Skal deposit in north-west Queensland.

Paladin also operates the Langer Heinrich mine in Namibia and has plans to bring its second mine in Malawi on line by 2009.

Paladin has extended its takeover offer for Summit several times, the most recent being on May 18 making a new closing date of May 25, but it reserves the right to further extend.


----------



## Sean K

*Re: PDN - Paladin Resources*

Paladin was mooted as a possible takeover target (along with the rest of the ASX) in the Fin this morning. Geesh, where does this M&A rumour mill stop? After the crash I suppose.....


----------



## Sean K

*Re: PDN - Paladin Resources*



kennas said:


> Paladin was mooted as a possible takeover target (along with the rest of the ASX) in the Fin this morning. Geesh, where does this M&A rumour mill stop? After the crash I suppose.....



0918 [Dow Jones] Rumors have begun to circulate Paladin Resources (PDN.AU) could soon be a takeover target, with Areva (427583.FR) a logical buyer, according to a report in Tuesday's Australian Financial Review newspaper. Philippe Portella, managing director of Areva's Australian operations says company plans to keep its 10.5% stake in Summit (SMM.AU), PDN's offer on which remains opens until Friday. Areva open to discussion with PDN on new arrangements but no talks yet. (RCB)


----------



## the barry

*Re: PDN - Paladin Resources*



kennas said:


> Paladin was mooted as a possible takeover target (along with the rest of the ASX) in the Fin this morning. Geesh, where does this M&A rumour mill stop? After the crash I suppose.....




It is only logical for the major players to acquire company's that are already producing/or close to producing to take advantage of the rising uranium prices. The spot price isn't going to raise forever and with every man and his dog out with his shovel digging for uranium the window of opportunity is now. I have to agree that at some point this whole sector is going to fall on its bum with only the selected few to come through unscathed.


----------



## greggy

*Re: PDN - Paladin Resources*



the barry said:


> It is only logical for the major players to acquire company's that are already producing/or close to producing to take advantage of the rising uranium prices. The spot price isn't going to raise forever and with every man and his dog out with his shovel digging for uranium the window of opportunity is now. I have to agree that at some point this whole sector is going to fall on its bum with only the selected few to come through unscathed.



Possibly...But I have noticed that the uranium sceptics have been out there for the last couple of years predicting an end to the uranium boom. Meanwhile Areva, Mega and others seem to be rushing to get their hands on the best of our uranium ground.  Its very serious money we're talking about here. Nuclear power will be one of the keys to our future should we wish to combat climate change.
DYOR


----------



## Kauri

*Re: PDN - Paladin Resources*



Kauri said:


> ..21/5/07..  Starting to look a little interesting, however I personally will be waiting for a minor W1--W2 to form before I consider getting back on.. .




  Well it looks like we may have the minor W1 forming, now for the W2 retrace to find a possible entry???


----------



## It's Snake Pliskin

*Re: PDN - Paladin Resources*



Kauri said:


> Well it looks like we may have the minor W1 forming, now for the W2 retrace to find a possible entry???




Kauri,

I see you are well into this EW trading style. In hindsight how has the progression been. Who is your EW influence in terms of theory and application? As far as PDN is concerned do you think the theory will hold up?


----------



## Kauri

*Re: PDN - Paladin Resources*

Snake,



It's Snake Pliskin said:


> Kauri,
> 
> I see you are well into this EW trading style. In hindsight how has the progression been. ?



  Slow, and a lot of hard work.


> Who is your EW influence in terms of theory and application?



 Theory..Nicks book rekindled an old interest, Miners book gave the nuts and bolts I needed to adapt it to my trading style.
 Application..Me


> As far as PDN is concerned do you think the theory will hold up?



  No idea, *if* it sets up according to my entry criterea I will trade it until the price action tells me I shouldn't.


----------



## Gurgler

*Re: PDN - Paladin Resources*

And this from a just released article:

*"In the meantime, rumours of a takeover bid for Paladin Resources (PDN) by French company Areva had that stock running yesterday. Areva denied everything, but rumour mongers are suggesting the Gauls will make their move once Paladin has completed its takeover of Summit Resources (SMM)."*

From "Base Metals Take A Hit Overnight"
FN Arena News - May 23 2007


----------



## Go Nuke

*Re: PDN - Paladin Resources*



Gurgler said:


> And this from a just released article:
> 
> *"In the meantime, rumours of a takeover bid for Paladin Resources (PDN) by French company Areva had that stock running yesterday. Areva denied everything, but rumour mongers are suggesting the Gauls will make their move once Paladin has completed its takeover of Summit Resources (SMM)."*
> 
> From "Base Metals Take A Hit Overnight"
> FN Arena News - May 23 2007




OOh that would make things interesting now wouldn't it. 
But I couldn't see it happening either.

At least the T/O end is within sight.


----------



## prawn_86

*Re: PDN - Paladin Resources*

from what i can gather, there would be no point in areva making a takeover for pdn at this stage as Areva tends to focus more on the use of uranium rather than mining it. 
Also the t/o looks set to drag out even longer as pdn has only secured approx 71% which still isnt enough and arevas 10.1% stake of smmm is proving to be rather annoying.
could be turbulent over the short term if you ask me, but still excellent long term stock. top up now if you have the capital imo


----------



## eMark

*Re: PDN - Paladin Resources*

For what it's worth PDN finished nicely today. Down at one point 36c to 8.50, and getting back up as high as 5c than it's previous close, and then settling in the mid 8.70's. I honestly thought PDN would do much worse today; with PDN TSX closing down 48c, and an overall negative day across the board.

I noticed that PDN now has 76% acceptances from SMM. That probably helped. I just thought it would go much lower than it did, and continue downwards, instead displaying a strong recovery at the end of a week.


----------



## rederob

*Re: PDN - Paladin Resources*

eMark
I had a contingency buy order and it missed on Friday: Being away from the screens during market hours has a downside 
I am going to ratchet my buy price up to the closing price and add a final 2K to my PDN holding.
As a fundamentalist, I like to see what the chartists are suggesting - I like kauri's chart styles for their simplicity - however I ignore them as my interests are much longer term than the traders on this site.
If PDN isn't over $15 by year's end, email me and I will send you a slab of your favourite beer.
I'm actually punting for it to enter 2008 with a double digit figure starting with "2". Although I should say that this is based on uranium also starting the year with that magic number in front


----------



## drmb

*Re: PDN - Paladin Resources*

PDN.TO on TSX closed Ca$7.98 (vol <2mil) up 5.4% on 25 May. Expect pdn.ax to open imo about 9-9.25 on Monday 27 May. Once SMM acceptances hit 80% and cgt relief kicks in, could see all the smaller hold outs convert, leaving only Areva and PDN to go eyeball to eyeball


----------



## j4mesa

*Re: PDN - Paladin Resources*



rederob said:


> eMark
> 
> If PDN isn't over $15 by year's end, email me and I will send you a slab of your favourite beer.
> I'm actually punting for it to enter 2008 with a double digit figure starting with "2". Although I should say that this is based on uranium also starting the year with that magic number in front




Ok rederob, I will remember your promise by the end of 2007. Can i choose any beer I want ?? .....Either way PDN goes, I win either money or beer ......


----------



## Logique

*Re: PDN - Paladin Resources*



> If PDN isn't over $15 by year's end, email me and I will send you a slab of your favourite beer.



Hey I'd like a piece of that action!  Like j4mesa said, it's a good deal either way.

But don't get me wrong, I'm long, believer in PDN.


----------



## eMark

*Re: PDN - Paladin Resources*



j4mesa said:


> Ok rederob, I will remember your promise by the end of 2007. Can i choose any beer I want ?? .....Either way PDN goes, I win either money or beer ......





Ummm......j4mesa I think the beer was promised to me from Redrob, not you, but hey if PDN does close out the year at around $15.00 your more than welcome to crack open a couple of coldies along with us. It sure won't break the budget Here's to next week...


----------



## eMark

*Re: PDN - Paladin Resources*



rederob said:


> eMark
> I had a contingency buy order and it missed on Friday: Being away from the screens during market hours has a downside
> I am going to ratchet my buy price up to the closing price and add a final 2K to my PDN holding.
> As a fundamentalist, I like to see what the chartists are suggesting - I like kauri's chart styles for their simplicity - however I ignore them as my interests are much longer term than the traders on this site.
> If PDN isn't over $15 by year's end, email me and I will send you a slab of your favourite beer.
> I'm actually punting for it to enter 2008 with a double digit figure starting with "2". Although I should say that this is based on uranium also starting the year with that magic number in front





Redrob. 

At the moment, I'm looking for a lower entry point into PDN. When reflecting on your comments re PDN reaching $15.00 by the end of the year, me searching for a lower buy price almost sounds pointless. But recently I've been averaging down my original buy price care of the recent volatility (ie my original buy price has been in the high nines). I've been making some nice short term profits. But my thinking is that I would probably like to get out completely, and then get back in lower due to PDN's current susceptibility to arresting if we have a major correction in the short term. Anyway it's food for thought.


----------



## Kauri

*Re: PDN - Paladin Resources*

Still a tad confusing for mine.. but.... seems a possible turning point for W4, given that SMM is nearly tied up (Barring Areva's stake). Will be watching, as time allows, for a clearer pattern with vol to form..or not.


----------



## rederob

*Re: PDN - Paladin Resources*

Kauri
I think the problem is that with takeovers, and another bidder in the wings, the charts get totally confounding.
I use a 5 year log chart to get a better handle on where PDN is going to be and the trend channels make my target price look quite pessimistic.  That view will only change if PDN can't break its present shackles in the next few months, and simply continues to meander - or consolidate.  Any further downside of magnitude to PDN's price will be speculative as the price of uranium continues to ratchet higher this company's NPV.

eMark
I hold 7k PDN at average $6.59 and missed on Friday as my order was at $8.45.  So I think an extra slab or two if I miss the $15 mark by year end is affordable.
A point of difference between me and the traders could well be that I do not ever anticipate selling PDN in my lifetime.  So when a good dip comes along, and my portfolio can accommodate a bit more "uranium", I will be bidding.
Over the next two years I anticipate rotating more into energy and precious metals, and less and less in base metals.


----------



## prawn_86

*Re: PDN - Paladin Resources*

emark makes a good point imo. PDN is very vulnerable if a correction does happen. You would think that a correction would be coming soon, but if you are contstantly saying that then there a plenty of missed opportunities.

I also hold PDN as a long term investment, perhaps not my lifetime but definetly over 5 years, or until i need the money for something more important (post grad degree).


----------



## x2rider

*Re: PDN - Paladin Resources*

Hi folks 
Don't know if I am reading that right but could be some delays on the Kayelekera project.
Seems to be some problems with the  Malawi enviromental management act. 
But it looks like it's off to court to try and settle it. Can't help thinking that this is another piece of news that will have a negative affect on the SP tomorrow.

 Cheers  Martin


----------



## rederob

*Re: PDN - Paladin Resources*

I upped my contingency order to $8.80 last night and discover yet again I have dipped out!
So I'm going to lower it to $8.65 now.
My theory is that the price is following my bids; so if I bid low tomorrow then I can trick the market into falling back, and then wind my bid up a tad to get what I want!
It's a hairbrained theory, to match a hairbrained market.
Shall report back tomorrow night with the (good??) news.


----------



## markrmau

*Re: PDN - Paladin Resources*

Good to hear you are so bullish on PDN rederob. I am a new holder courtesy of smm t/o, and my broker is telling me to sell. I disagree. 

I see plenty of upside in U price. It is one of those situations where mining supply is limited (though in actual fact U is quite common in earth's crust) and demand is relatively inelastic and is increasing. Also the 'commonly accepted wisdom' is that we are in a U bubble which is about to burst. 

These points lead me to believe we are near the _beginning_ of a massive U bull run which will take the price far further than any of the market participants thought possible (thanks R. Farleigh).


----------



## It's Snake Pliskin

*Re: PDN - Paladin Resources*

mark,
I reposted this for you in this thread. 
A uranium bubble of sorts may be forming. But I don't know becuase it is not my specialty. Anyway worty of a read: http://www.news.com.au/dailytelegraph/story/0,22049,21801546-5001024,00.html


----------



## markrmau

*Re: PDN - Paladin Resources*

Yes, we _could_ be in a U bubble - I don't know, only time will tell.

But the reason I suspect it is not a U bubble is that the proponents of the bubble theory only point to price - has increased by factor of blah blah over the last 3 years.

No consideration to the fact that:

1. U price was artificially low 3 yrs ago by the reuse of U from decommissioned cold war nuclear armanents.

2. U costs for nuclear power generators is actually not a great cost as a percentage of overall running costs (despite the generator companies moaning).

I think $15 for PDN next year is a dam safe bet.


----------



## philby3

*Re: PDN - Paladin Resources*

Just announced:
Takeover bid for Summit Resources Limited 80.1% acceptance (CGT rollover) and no further extensions Paladin Resources Ltd (Paladin) advises that it has now received acceptances under its takeover bid for Summit Resources Limited (Summit) for 80.1% of Summit’s fully paid ordinary shares. As a result, Summit shareholders who have accepted the offer, or who do so before the offer closes, will be entitled to claim scrip for scrip capital gains tax rollover relief if their shares are held on capital account (as explained in section 10.2 of Paladin’s bidder’s statement dated 27 February 2007). John Borshoff, Paladin’s Managing Director, commented: “We are pleased to have passed the 80% mark. This will allow many Summit shareholders to hold on to all their Paladin shares rather than having to sell some to fund capital gains tax on the transfer.” “Most importantly, Paladin now has an economic interest in over 90% of the Valhalla/Skal deposit and over 80% of Summit’s remaining Mt Isa resources and prospects. With this position, Paladin and Summit can now progress the exploration and appraisal activities at Mt Isa in a more unified manner. This will have many positive outcomes for the growth of the uranium resource and for the potential development of the Mt Isa project if or when Queensland State Government policy changes.” Paladin’s offer is scheduled to close at 5:00pm (Perth, Western Australia time) on 1 June 2007. Paladin confirms that its offer will not be extended beyond that date.


----------



## prawn_86

*Re: PDN - Paladin Resources*

finally. this has dragged on way too long. hopefully it can all be put behind us and pdn can concentrate on growing once again.........


----------



## eMark

*Re: PDN - Paladin Resources*

PDN in pre-open as at 10.37am.

EME : Encouraging Start to 2007 Drilling Program at Bigrlyi


----------



## Kauri

*Re: PDN - Paladin Resources*

Keeping a lazy eye on PDN... but just doesn't seem too inspiring currently, has lost all momentum... for one the buyers just don't seem to be stepping up to the plate.. I wont be jumping in until/if the vol picks up...


----------



## j4mesa

*Re: PDN - Paladin Resources*

kauri, would you say that PDN is double top formation (bearish)?
as indicated by line 5?


----------



## Kauri

*Re: PDN - Paladin Resources*



j4mesa said:


> kauri, would you say that PDN is double top formation (bearish)?
> as indicated by line 5?




j4..
It may be.... one thing I always keep in mind though is that all ascending triangles have by definition a double top... I always look at patterns in context to other factors to try to see if they are important.


----------



## j4mesa

*Re: PDN - Paladin Resources*

Thank you for ur reply kauri.

Forgive me for my inexperience in the technical charting , when you mention pattern, what pattern do you mean?

Also you said that by definition all asc triangle has double top,I am bit confused with that statement?


----------



## It's Snake Pliskin

*Re: PDN - Paladin Resources*



Kauri said:


> Keeping a lazy eye on PDN... but just doesn't seem too inspiring currently, has lost all momentum... for one the buyers just don't seem to be stepping up to the plate.. I wont be jumping in until/if the vol picks up...





I agree totally Kauri.
Points a. and b. are showing selling.
Points c. and d. are showing lack of buyers. 

Uninspiring to say the least. The fundamentals may inspire but I can read books and they tell a lot. Inexspensive charting programs tell the same, hey some are for free.


----------



## rederob

*Re: PDN - Paladin Resources*

It was always my intention to pick up more PDN under $9 and today my order was filled at $8.60 giving me a total of 9k shares at average $7.03 - and  means I stop buying for now.
Again the charts have provided a very useful guide to a good re-entry point, and while this stock is immediate term "weak", it is long term very strong.
Once PDN mop up SMM it will do exactly what MGX has done: Both good equities, but PDN has more upside potential.


----------



## billhill

*Re: PDN - Paladin Resources*



			
				rederob said:
			
		

> Again the charts have provided a very useful guide to a good re-entry point, and while this stock is immediate term "weak", it is long term very strong.




Great point. Just topped up myself. IMO the current weakness in uranium is the perfect buying opportunity. I don't think uranium will take off as before but i think companies with good fundamentals will continues to grow solidly as the U price rises (Just need to shake out the U pretenders). Obviously PDN is fundamentally at the top of that list.


----------



## eMark

*Re: PDN - Paladin Resources*

Just a thought

PDN closed at 8.63 yesterday (May 31) at 4pm. It closed after the adjustment period "indicative price" (Westpac broking market depth area) at 8.75, with bids at 8.70, and sells at 8.76. Now that's not unusual other than it's quite a big jump in the 10 minute adjustment period, considering PDN had been hanging around in the 8.60's for much of the afternoon. I will post the last 10 trades. They are quite large. Does this mean anything? I know after market trades happen all the time, but the big jump/large trades normal? Is there somethinmg I don't know? Also does anyone know if these are BUYS or SELLS?

Paladin Resources Limited (PDN) 
Date Time Price ($) Quantity Value ($) Conditions 
31-05-2007 05:57 PM $8.750 3094 $27,072.500 Late Trade,Crossed  
31-05-2007 05:09 PM $8.750 1435 $12,556.250 Late Trade,Crossed 
31-05-2007 05:01 PM $8.704 26706 $232,449.024 Portfolio Special Crossing,Crossed 
31-05-2007 04:55 PM $8.750 91039 $796,591.250 Portfolio Special Crossing,Crossed 
31-05-2007 04:48 PM $8.750 12085 $105,743.750 Late Trade,Crossed 
31-05-2007 04:41 PM $8.743 83421 $729,349.803 Portfolio Special Crossing,Crossed 
31-05-2007 04:40 PM $8.750 81142 $709,992.500 Portfolio Special Crossing,Crossed 
31-05-2007 04:27 PM $8.750 68 $595.000 Late Trade,Crossed 
31-05-2007 04:15 PM $8.750 2500 $21,875.000 Late Trade,Crossed 
31-05-2007 04:10 PM $8.750 2633 $23,038.750


----------



## eMark

*Re: PDN - Paladin Resources*

No posts today? 

I'll bite the bullet. 

Can anyone explain what happened today? Down to $8.42... before recovering to $8.60. Still it closed down 15c today. With everything else that's going on around it, PDN appears to be really on the nose at the moment.

* 81% accepatances of SMM (Positive/Negative)
* No recent movement in the Uranium price? (Negative) (I hear though that there may be an auction today?)
* Second bounce of $8.40 area (Positive)
* Closing at lower lows (Negative)

What's gonna turn around the negative sentiment?


----------



## alankew

*Re: PDN - Paladin Resources*

A takeover might helpStill holding at much higher price and this is doing my head in.Reminds me of ZFX earlier on in the year when it was at nearly $20 then for no apparent reason(to me at least!)it tanked.POZ has brougt it back and i think the same with the price of U will help this recover.Not sure what will happen re SMM and Areva though so i think this doesnt help either


----------



## eMark

*Re: PDN - Paladin Resources*



eMark said:


> * 81% accepatances of SMM (Positive/Negative)?





Maybe I've just answered my own question.

*Press Release Source: Paladin Resources Ltd. 


Paladin Resources Ltd.: Takeover Bid for Summit Resources Limited; Close of Offer Period and Notification of Relevant Interests
Friday June 1, 8:15 am ET 


PERTH, WESTERN AUSTRALIA--(CCNMatthews - June 1, 2007) - Paladin Resources Ltd. ("Paladin" or "the Company") (TSXDN - News; ASXDN - News) announces that the takeover bid by Paladin for all the fully paid ordinary shares in Summit Resources Limited (Summit) closed at 5:00pm (Perth, Western Australia time) on 1 June 2007.
For the purposes of ASX Listing Rule 3.3, Paladin gives notice that:

- it has a relevant interest in 81.82% of Summit's shares; and

- as the applicable thresholds have not been reached, compulsory acquisition of the outstanding Summit shares will not proceed.

A.C.N. 061 681 098*

What now happens in this scenario when the accepted level for compulsory aquistion is not reached? and noting that the offer is now closed. Does the Areva thing make it more complicated?

PDN TSX had a muted response, though not the big drop we had on Friday (although we only had the "substantial holdings" statement on Friday, not the one I've cut n' pasted, that was supplied to the TSX just before their open).

*TSX - PDN

Last Trade: 7.77 
Trade Time: 3:59PM ET 
Change: + 0.01 (0.13%) 
Day's Range: 7.70 - 7.94*


----------



## rederob

*Re: PDN - Paladin Resources*

eMark
The first thing to remember is that the takeover action has had no impact on production, nor the uranium price.
In that light PDN remains a company relatively cheap at today's price, and destined to go significantly higher.
As is always the case with takeovers, equities involved go into a graveyard shift, as players involved try to dig deeper holes for their adversaries, until they lie at rest.
In this case PDN has enough SMM to ensure that it, a as company, makes life for other major stakeholders not worth worrying about.  Whatever PDN wants to do with SMM it will be able to do due to its voting power.
However, other major stakeholders can still be flies in the ointment of PDN's uranium solution, and cause irritation; although it would generally be to SMM's detriment.
I suspect that the next spot price announcement will tack on another $15 or so to uranium's price, and whatever woes are faced at the boardroom will be overlooked as a result of the balance sheet.


----------



## eMark

*Re: PDN - Paladin Resources*



rederob said:


> I suspect that the next spot price announcement will tack on another $15 or so to uranium's price, and whatever woes are faced at the boardroom will be overlooked as a result of the balance sheet.




Thanks Redrob, informative as usual. I have highlighted your quote here as I found an article with the 'link posted on Uranium a raging Bull by Kromey', and thought I would post the actual article here also.

Sounds like there is a 3rd auction to come, but I'm confused re the auction pricing and the spot prices. Correct me if I am wrong, but I don't think these prices were announced officialy until after close of trade for PDN TSX??

http://www.stockinterview.com/News/06022007/Uranium-Auctions-Higher-Price.html

_June 2, 2007
By Julie Ickes and James Finch 


Uranium Auctions Drive Spot Price 11.5 Percent Higher

Two Auctions Down; Another on June 12th
‘Could Reach Well Above US$140/Pound’ by Monday



According to NUEXCO/TradeTech Uranium Spot History chart, the past three years have witnessed the most dramatic rise in the spot price of U3O8 since this consulting service began keeping records in 1968. Courtesy of Nuclear Market Review, a TradeTech publication. Changes in the weekly spot price are posted on the company’s website: www.uranium.info 

COPYRIGHT  © 2007 by StockInterview.com, Inc. ALL RIGHTS RESERVED.  


Another wild week in the spot uranium pricing market broke all historical records, no matter how it is calculated. On Thursday night, Nuclear Market Review’s (NMR) month-end report announced US$133/pound. (We posted this on the front page of StockInterview.com as ‘Breaking News’ Thursday night.) Ostensibly, this was the final price for U3O8 auctioned by Mestena Uranium LLC on Wednesday when the sealed envelopes were opened.

But on Friday night, Nuclear Market Review marked the weekly spot uranium price indicator higher – to US$138/pound. This represents an increase of more than 11.5 percent from the previous weekly spot price of US$122.

Losing bids at Mestena were given another chance at a second auction on Friday to win the material they failed to buy on Wednesday, according to Nuclear Market Review editor, Treva Klingbiel.

During a phone call Friday night, we caught TradeTech chief executive Gene Clark between flights (he was on his way to Athens, Greece to make his presentation at the World Nuclear Fuel Market conference). “We issued a conservative increase to US$138 because Friday’s bids have not yet been announced,” Clark told StockInterview.com. “Our sources provided us with guidance of $138, but we believe the final sale could reach well over US$140/pound.” Clark cautioned, “Each auction has taken the spot uranium price higher, and we anticipate this could again occur at the June 12th auction.”

What then happens after June 12th? That’s when yet another auction – the third in less than two weeks – plans to offer 125 thousand pounds of U3O8.

TradeTech increased the consulting service’s long-term U3O8 equivalent price indicator on Friday to US$95/pound. This has been the market’s only month-end long-term price indicator reported, which others tend to utilize or report as their own.

According to Treva Klingbiel, “Long-term demand remains strong with 14 utilities seeking offers totaling approximately 26 million pounds U3O8 equivalent for delivery in 2007 – 2018.”

We have also observed a stronger increase in the spot uranium trading volume, after a hesitant start in 2007. As a comparison, spot volume to date was at about the same level as 1997. Yet by the end of 1997, more spot uranium was sold than at any other time during the ten-year period 1996 to 2006. 

Chart courtesy of www.theinvestar.com which tracks both Canadian and Australian stocks. In the Canadian chart, 43 uranium companies – each with more than C$40 million in market capitalization comprise this weekly index. The Australian Index tracks 25 companies, which own uranium assets. 

Matthew Smith of TheInvestar.com reports uranium stocks are suffering from lower lows and lower highs. This is generally a bearish indicator, but Smith pointed out, “After each new low, we only dip down less than one percent.”

Smith reports that the market needs an uplifting trigger to turn stock prices around. He pointed to additional changes in the spot weekly uranium price and possible deal-making with Energy Metals (NYSE ARCA: EMU) for a possible acquisition of that company.

As we believe, more consolidation is expected in this junior uranium mining space. Any significant drop in the price of uranium mining stocks at this point – especially those expected to become producers before 2013 – could lead to announcements of acquisitions, business combinations or mergers.

Previous comments from the chief executives of Denison Mines (AMEX: DNN) and Uranium One (TSX: SXR) suggest they have been waiting for a better time to make acquisitions. As has been found with most investors, no one really enjoys over-paying for their purchases._


----------



## bigdog

*Re: PDN - Paladin Resources*

http://www.smh.com.au/news/business...-1b-paladin-bid/2007/06/04/1180809376458.html

Summit out of reach for $1b Paladin bid
June 4, 2007 - 9:19AM

Uranium company Paladin Resources has failed to reach a minimum threshhold of shares in rival miner Summit Resources and has dropped any plans for compulsory acquisition of the remainder.

Paladin has told the Australian stock exchange that, when its offer for Summit closed at 5pm last Friday, Perth time, it held 81.82 per cent of Summit's ordinary shares, less than the 90 per cent required for compulsory acquisition.

Paladin said, "As the applicable threshholds have not been reached, compulsory acquisition of the outstanding Summit shares will not proceed".

Under the $1.07 billion bid, which was recommended by the Summit board, shareholders would have received one Paladin share for for every 1.67 Summit shares, equating to about $6.22 per Summit share.

Full acquisition by Paladin was stymied when Summit struck a deal with French nuclear giant Areva NC, which took 10.46 per cent of Summit.


----------



## dj_420

*Re: PDN - Paladin Resources*

so what happens now??

PDN back to business as usual as they have around 90% or so interest in valhulla and skal?


----------



## dj_420

*Re: PDN - Paladin Resources*

hmmmm we whatever happens it seems SMM has now unhinged from value that PDN put on them

SMM 4.80
SMM 4.80 x 1.67 = $8.02

PDN 8.75
PDN 8.75 / 1.67 = $5.24

dont know what will come for SMM holders now


----------



## Kauri

*Re: PDN - Paladin Resources*

For mine PDN *may* have bottomed out but I have been caught out too many times trying to anticipate the absolute bottom. Will watch and see how she reacts to the minor supp/res at the $9 level... if it is the start of the next leg there will still be plenty of meat on the bone for my trading style *if* I find an entry around there once the trend change has been confirmed, or not.


----------



## alankew

*Re: PDN - Paladin Resources*

What do you guys think will happen with Areva/SMM/PDN now.Not an ideal situation so waht will PDN/Areva do now.Does Areva t/o PDN SMM or both!Any other alternatives


----------



## dj_420

*Re: PDN - Paladin Resources*

not sure alan but SMM value has been disconnected from PDN since offer closed

SMM 4.63 equivalent 1.67 PDN = $7.73
PDN $9.14

i think now PDN have around 90% interest in valhulla, it will be back to business as much as possible until SMM to is sorted out.

at least SMM holders that accepted have CGT relief now. phew!


----------



## prawn_86

*Re: PDN - Paladin Resources*

lots of bot buying happening now that the price is below 9.20.
seems to me that something is happening, especially with how quickly that 500000 got taken up


----------



## eMark

*Re: PDN - Paladin Resources*

WOW! I'm impressed. With the DOW down 129 points overnight, and the TSX down 200 points, I wake to find PDN on the TSX down only 7c. PDN TSX closed at 7.93, down 7c from 8.00 with a high of 8.02 and a low of 7.95. That's a pretty good show of strength considering PDN usually reacts violently with days like this. The question remains will PDN on the ASX follow suit?


----------



## j4mesa

*Re: PDN - Paladin Resources*

It seems that the one in ASX is reacting more "violently" as usual.......
It is just weird that it does not follow one another pretty closely yeah ?


----------



## dj_420

*Re: PDN - Paladin Resources*



j4mesa said:


> It seems that the one in ASX is reacting more "violently" as usual.......
> It is just weird that it does not follow one another pretty closely yeah ?




yeah i agree makes me think australian investors are much more emotional fickle beasts than overseas counterparts


----------



## billhill

*Re: PDN - Paladin Resources*



			
				daredevil said:
			
		

> What value do people see in PDN at current prices? It has returned nil since January 2007. One wonders whether its best off to concentrate on potential winners from a lower base.
> 
> PDN has had its run , evidence is simply no interest in it above nine. Its market cap is over 6 billion dollars. Cash flow? None.




One thing one must remember about this company is they have one active mine and will soon commission another. In australia apart from ERA and the diversified miners no other U companies are producing or likely close to doing so. This gives PDN a huge advantage as they have guaranteed exposure to current high U prices. In a sector that still has plenty of upside they are in a better position then most IMO.


----------



## rederob

*Re: PDN - Paladin Resources*



daredevil said:


> Its market cap is over 6 billion dollars.* Cash flow? None*.



Oh, so PDN is giving away yellow cake.
Who is a donkey?

It is now a 100 characters so I could post!


----------



## rederob

*Re: PDN - Paladin Resources*



billhill said:


> In a sector that still has plenty of upside they are in a better position then most IMO.



Every now and then a company hits a price that is outstanding value given the market and its attendant fundamentals.
That's where PDN is at the moment.
In a year's time everyone that jumped onto a hot uranium explorer that crashed and burned will wonder why they did not at least dabble in PDN.
I think it was BSD or Reece telling me BHP around $26 in the latter part of last year was a risky buy.  Well, I got its dividend, sold some into the buyback, and am still up around 35% with the leftover holdings.
I thought BHP back then was a lay down misere.
By way of comparison, PDN will make my BHP adventure look rather gay.


----------



## billhill

*Re: PDN - Paladin Resources*



			
				rederob said:
			
		

> Every now and then a company hits a price that is outstanding value given the market and its attendant fundamentals.




Indeed. Negative sentiment towards the U sector of late seems to have created significant value. People got a little scared and started to jump ship because of excessive speculation and mania. The fundamentals haven't changed (if anything they are better, higher U price) and i don't think it will be long before people realise this and money starts returning albeit in a more sustained manner. Plus i beleive we are headed for another resources rally (BHP with a forward PE of 6ish, rediculously cheap) which will likely bode well for "good" uranium companies also.


----------



## It's Snake Pliskin

*Re: PDN - Paladin Resources*

Fundamentally what is the price likely to be worth in a year? PDN that is.

Maybe the current price is a reflection of the future expectation. 

I don't know.


----------



## rederob

*Re: PDN - Paladin Resources*



It's Snake Pliskin said:


> Fundamentally what is the price likely to be worth in a year? PDN that is.
> 
> Maybe the current price is a reflection of the future expectation.
> 
> I don't know.



As in investor it's somewhat irrelevant trying to pick next year's price.
The issue relates to buying a stock that will make one money.
The probability of this stock *NOT *performing exceptionally well in the months ahead is very low.
PDN will pocket well over $100/lb for its unhedged uranium,
PDN is targeting production of over 2.5 million pounds per year - with a 17 year life span at just one of its mines.
So we are looking at profits in AUD terms conservatively over half a billion dollars per year at present uranium prices.
At least you are honest, Snake, when you say you don't know.


----------



## Dutchy3

*Re: PDN - Paladin Resources*

Hi Dline

From recent PM

This stock at an interesting juncture ...

See the Big Black with the red arrow ... The arrow signifies volume > 150% of the 50 period average volume ... and has cast a shadow over the price since. Here's the rub though the blue oval around the Hanging Figure stopped any further price decline ... the subsequent move to 1050 failed ... and yet 850 now holds too ...

The sum of this for me is that momentum has dropped away ...

This stock will require new stronger hands to lift it from here through 1050 ... just as well the news is positive.


----------



## reece55

*Re: PDN - Paladin Resources*



rederob said:


> Every now and then a company hits a price that is outstanding value given the market and its attendant fundamentals.
> That's where PDN is at the moment.
> In a year's time everyone that jumped onto a hot uranium explorer that crashed and burned will wonder why they did not at least dabble in PDN.
> I think it was BSD or Reece telling me BHP around $26 in the latter part of last year was a risky buy.  Well, I got its dividend, sold some into the buyback, and am still up around 35% with the leftover holdings.
> I thought BHP back then was a lay down misere.
> By way of comparison, PDN will make my BHP adventure look rather gay.




Hey Rederob, I think it was me telling you that BHP was a risk at $26. Mind you, I bought when it was looking nice at 26.50 via a warrant and made 20% in a day prior to the half year results announcement, so I didn't really miss out here!!!

Now, good ole PDN - I think I remember copping grief at about $10 after the summit bid was announced when I said that until that was put away, you would want to stay away - what do you know, the chart doesn't look to pretty......

At the moment, PDN is showing lower highs and lower lows, so we really need some confirmation here that PDN wants to go higher. I see crucial support at the 7.50~ level, but personally I don't think we will get that low. Friday's Doji means the stock will most likely recover on Tuesday with the general market, but to me it will take some committed buyers to move it out of the down trend it's in at the moment. However, we are seeing some bullish movement on our MACD, so perhaps a recovery it not too far away. 

Best of luck to all holders here.


----------



## rederob

*Re: PDN - Paladin Resources*

Cheers Reece
The chart is not endearing, and it is obvious!
However, as a long termer in the market, the hunt for value is the holy grail,
By every measure PDN now represents outstanding value.
The foray into SMM has too many worrying unnecessarily.
If I see PDN dip into the $7 range, I will add some more, probably......
What the mug punters fail to understand is that PDN has moved from a cash burn explorer to a fully fledged producer: Read cash cow.  And since that happened the price of its product has increased around 80%.  Yet the stock's price has gone nowhere.
With SMM joining its stables, and the price of uranium set for further - perhaps less robust - increases, PDN really is a no brainer.
I know there are no guarantees in the market, but this one is about as good as it gets.
I'm not going to argue the toss a dollar either way; it's just not worth the anal analysis.


----------



## dlineinvestor

*Re: PDN - Paladin Resources*

PDN's turnaround can occur but to confirm I will be watching my price oscillator. When it turns up, it will be the "first" sign. Unfortunately last weeks candle had a high  level of price rejection. Similar to the first candle that started the downturn. If S/P crosses the EMA line another bearish confirmation will take place.


----------



## Joules MM1

*Re: PDN - Paladin Resources*



dlineinvestor said:


> PDN's turnaround can occur but to confirm I will be watching my price oscillator. When it turns up, it will be the "first" sign. Unfortunately last weeks candle had a high  level of price rejection. Similar to the first candle that started the downturn. If S/P crosses the EMA line another bearish confirmation will take place.




mate, I'm scratcing my head on your post...........did you enter on the "price oscillator" xover and then exit on the next xover signal ? cos if you did then you lost a swag of percentage.........also where the exit xover signal occurs the price immediately swings back upto retest the previous highest high............also that "support" level ..........Ive never seen such a "suggested" support level......that's a  curious one, please exapnd on that one, thanks


 mm1


----------



## Joules MM1

*Re: PDN - Paladin Resources*



reece55 said:


> Hey Rederob, I think it was me telling you that BHP was a risk at $26. Mind you, I bought when it was looking nice at 26.50 via a warrant and made 20% in a day prior to the half year results announcement, so I didn't really miss out here!!!
> 
> Now, good ole PDN - I think I remember copping grief at about $10 after the summit bid was announced when I said that until that was put away, you would want to stay away - what do you know, the chart doesn't look to pretty......
> 
> At the moment, PDN is showing lower highs and lower lows, so we really need some confirmation here that PDN wants to go higher. I see crucial support at the 7.50~ level, but personally I don't think we will get that low. Friday's Doji means the stock will most likely recover on Tuesday with the general market, but to me it will take some committed buyers to move it out of the down trend it's in at the moment. However, we are seeing some bullish movement on our MACD, so perhaps a recovery it not too far away.
> 
> Best of luck to all holders here.




What's the volume telling you? Who is the buyer and who is the seller?

that the m/a "signal" shows a bullish divergence...........my question is; when is a divergence merely a signal of lessening sells versus increasing buy-up pressure? Is the divergence really a bullish signal (revert to strong trend up) or are we seeing a level where the largest players, who have assisted the price to decline (the recent support area) and where the retail players, who previously freaked, sold, on the move since the high, have exhausted their selling..........this is the real question...........are we seeing a base-build versus a "bullish divergence" afterall,  a bullish divergence is time-limited ...........in other words a base for the smart money is being ensued here over a period of time that works for them..........not necessarily for the reatail public..........

your thoughts on that?


----------



## dlineinvestor

*Re: PDN - Paladin Resources*

Joules,

My chart shows neither my entry nor exit, why I posted PDN with the price oscillator is because I use it to show me when a share starts to turnaround.
I use other another sytem for entries. I find the price oscillator less volatile so when a cross over occurs its fairly substantial.
The support line of 8.42 shows where buyers have come in lately to shore up the S/P from falling further. This may be broken or may hold. I labeled "shaky support" because of current market conditions here and the US.

Cheers
dline


----------



## Kauri

*Re: PDN - Paladin Resources*

At the moment the volume and price range/movement isn't telling me too much apart from that there is a lot of indecision and it would seem that there is "Harvey Norman" activity by the larger players??
 In *(my)* perfect world we would have a fake of the horizontal support that closed up at its high on high buying volume that also co-incided with the typical larger W*(4) *and also the typical intermediate W*5* and that also came close to the trading chanell. If a strong buyer supported minor W1-W2 then happened I would probably be in with my ears pinned back.. : .. Now back to work on my Lotto system...


----------



## Joules MM1

*Re: PDN - Paladin Resources*



Kauri said:


> At the moment the volume and price range/movement isn't telling me too much apart from that there is a lot of indecision and it would seem that there is "Harvey Norman" activity by the larger players??





erm.........so does that mean you think that "some" people are indecisve and some are not? if so, then who is being indecisive and who is not?

there is a very large bar at the bottom of the chart........what is that telling you?


----------



## reece55

*Re: PDN - Paladin Resources*



Joules MM1 said:


> What's the volume telling you? Who is the buyer and who is the seller?
> 
> that the m/a "signal" shows a bullish divergence...........my question is; when is a divergence merely a signal of lessening sells versus increasing buy-up pressure? Is the divergence really a bullish signal (revert to strong trend up) or are we seeing a level where the largest players, who have assisted the price to decline (the recent support area) and where the retail players, who previously freaked, sold, on the move since the high, have exhausted their selling..........this is the real question...........are we seeing a base-build versus a "bullish divergence" afterall,  a bullish divergence is time-limited ...........in other words a base for the smart money is being ensued here over a period of time that works for them..........not necessarily for the reatail public..........
> 
> your thoughts on that?




Hi Joules
I'm with Kauri here - I can't really see anything in our volume and ranges that suggest anything except for the fact that at each lower high, volume is at it's peak, suggesting selling interest, which is what I had illustrated in my post.

As for what distinguishes bullish divergence that will simply fall over from that over a trend changing event is a break of the trend channel, on high volume and a nice green candle..... Until that occurs, I will be on the sidelines personally. I was just stating that we were seeing some positive elements that required confirmation before invoking a possible entry.

What did you see that was so special in the volume? I would be interested in your reply.

Cheers


----------



## Joules MM1

*Re: PDN - Paladin Resources*



reece55 said:


> Hi Joules
> I'm with Kauri here - I can't really see anything in our volume ...........




thanks for your honesty.........you know, honesty in understanding and knowledge are the coner-stones to advancing as a trader........thanks

the best that I can do and that you may do, in the future, is know the right questions to ask..........you could throw away the indicia and all the fancy packages if you could ask the right questions about price and who is involved........for now my question to you is:

In the expanse of the volume at the low, who bought and who sold..........therein lays your key.........I would be rude to simply pose an answer to that question because it would rob you of the ability to think (not-withstading that the question of "whom and  at what time" is different for each trade set-up)...........

I am simply asking, who is at play.............for what purpose? 

the only hint I may give at this stage is that all price movment (that is, up, down and sideways) benefits someone.......who?


----------



## Kauri

*Re: PDN - Paladin Resources*



Joules MM1 said:


> erm.........so does that mean you think that "some" people are indecisve and some are not? if so, then who is being indecisive and who is not?
> 
> there is a very large bar at the bottom of the chart........what is that telling you?




  errrmm... in my view... from the larger players... "Harvey Norman". as in the interminable T.V adverts.. *no interest*.. and the smaller investors..indecision... as evidenced by the posts for example in this thread... most people trying to second-guess the bottom of the current move but without any conviction...
  any large bar with no follow-up strength indications is telling *me* nothing... _but please tell me...what is it telling you_???


----------



## rederob

*Re: PDN - Paladin Resources*



Joules MM1 said:


> I am simply asking, who is at play.............for what purpose?
> 
> the only hint I may give at this stage is that all price movment (that is, up, down and sideways) benefits someone.......who?



Might be relevant to the traders.
I look at the numbers that make up the company's bottom line.
Those numbers are not as erratic as the stock market.
They also give the best clue as to the company's future direction.
Whether it takes a week, month or longer is not an issue for me, so I will read with interest who has the funniest slant on the technical front.


----------



## Joules MM1

*Re: PDN - Paladin Resources*



Kauri said:


> errrmm... in my view... from the larger players... "Harvey Norman". as in the interminable T.V adverts.. *no interest*.. and the smaller investors..indecision... as evidenced by the posts for example in this thread... most people trying to second-guess the bottom of the current move but without any conviction...
> any large bar with no follow-up strength indications is telling *me* nothing... _but please tell me...what is it telling you_???




uh-huh.........youre still only answering half the price/volume question .......there are two sides to the trade and there are two sides to the volume.........again, who is buying/selling and who is not buying/selling.........think on this.........maybe you could ask this relevant question (imo) who best benefits from the price fall............one of the greatest traps set for retail traders is set by whom? when the retail trader sell on the emotion, then, who knows this and who gets to buy this "emotional" volume? not all traders are emotional..........in that case,who is and who is not? 

does that clarify ?

you see, the answer is not so black and white all the time and for me to answer with "these people sold and these people bought (that) volume" is like me managing your trade for you, or, thinking for you..........that's one of the biggest pit-falls of a chat site..........everyone pumping their own dispositions rather than asking the right questions........haha..........its called a market.........


----------



## Joules MM1

*Re: PDN - Paladin Resources*

see that big volume spike? Do you think that the people who bought that volume are "indecisive".

volume has two sides.......buyers and sellers......who bought that volume, who sold that volume......

.......forget the elliott count........that hindsight stuff........concentrate on forward looking.......and who else is forward looking.......what are THEIR reasons?


----------



## reece55

*Re: PDN - Paladin Resources*

OK, well if I had to draw one conclusion, I would say that the indecisiveness is benefiting the smart money, as the volume is way up on the gap down to that 7.50 level. And then, if we were going with this theme, the volume acceleration in the downtrend of late is benefiting the smart money in being able to acquire the stock at cheap levels prior to the resumption of the uptrend. In the last month, we have seen steady volume acceleration and a base forming at the 8.50 level....

Your views on summation???

I might add that even if we could accurately form this conclusion (which personally I think is a stab at best), from a risk/reward perspective I would still wait for the same signs I previously indicated before making a long entry. And to me, E/W provides a leading view on where a stock is going, not a lagging view.....

Cheers
Reece


----------



## Joules MM1

*Re: PDN - Paladin Resources*



reece55 said:


> OK, well if I had to draw one conclusion, I would say that the indecisiveness is benefiting the smart money, as the volume is way up on the gap down to that 7.50 level. And then, if we were going with this theme, the volume acceleration in the downtrend of late is benefiting the smart money in being able to acquire the stock at cheap levels prior to the resumption of the uptrend. In the last month, we have seen steady volume acceleration and a base forming at the 8.50 level....
> 
> Your views on summation???
> 
> Cheers
> Reece




so close, so close indeed........you see, volume activity tells you more than is currently summised, by you........you have just told me that you opine that the smart money is benefiting from indecision (theirs or yours?) so, did the people who bought all the volume do so with indecision? Did all the sellers of that volume sell with indecision ?


----------



## Joules MM1

*Re: PDN - Paladin Resources*



Joules MM1 said:


> so close, so close indeed........you see, volume activity tells you more than is currently summised, by you........you have just told me that you opine that the smart money is benefiting from indecision (theirs or yours?) so, did the people who bought all the volume do so with indecision? Did all the sellers of that volume sell with indecision ?




the position of price relative to the time that supply and demand "appears" to be biased is an important point to take into consideration.......the supply of sell versus the demand to be long on that stock/instrument ...........who is taking the long position? all that purging sell volume......who bought that.........do you think they consider themselves indecisive?


........in fact, I think the indecision is within the realms of the person asking the question........imo, the buyers are not indecisive.......so what makes them decisive? what makes them buy at this level when the retail sector is rushing for the gates?


----------



## Joules MM1

*Re: PDN - Paladin Resources*



reece55 said:


> I might add that even if we could accurately form this conclusion (which personally I think is a stab at best), from a risk/reward perspective I would still wait for the same signs I previously indicated before making a long entry. And to me, E/W provides a leading view on where a stock is going, not a lagging view.....
> 
> Cheers
> Reece





Ralph Nelson Elliott is one of my heros.........what I guy........how he uncovered the supply/demand in waves is outstanding.......but, he would ask today, the same he asked back then, where's the evidence? how do you put into context what you are seeing now? how are you INTERPRETING price versus position and time? What is your own emotional bias versus the alternative count?

good hunting.

OZ market closed today so a good time to reflect.

Cheers

Joules


----------



## Kauri

*Re: PDN - Paladin Resources*

Joules, 
           Have attached a chart with only price and vol, could you please share your understanding of what is happening on it re the smart-money and or retail traders that you refer to so as we can all learn from your invaluable experience , preferably without riddles or answering questions with more questions. After all    







> honesty in understanding and knowledge are the coner-stones to advancing as a trader



 ...


----------



## It's Snake Pliskin

*Re: PDN - Paladin Resources*

Joules,
Does it really matter who is buying or selling?

I think not. The fact the price went down and there was an increase in volume does indicate selling pressure. If the buyers were more in control maybe it would have gone up with follow through. It didn't and the subsequent action was down. 

Weak. Period.

Lets fnd the low risk entry by BEING SURE of the strength. 

Who is buyign selling does not matter. The result of that does.

Kauri, Reece,
You have missed what Joules picked up.

Cheers
Snake


----------



## It's Snake Pliskin

*Re: PDN - Paladin Resources*



reece55 said:


> And to me, E/W provides a leading view on where a stock is going, not a lagging view.....
> Cheers
> Reece




Reece, 

... a possible route it MAY take but it is not set in stone as I am sure you know. The trouble I find with EW is it is only confirmed in hindsight: "that was a wave 3" 

"weakness" be prepared / go short.
"strength" take an entry / be prepared.

Simple stuff and in the case of PDN no long entry in sight unless scalping.


----------



## reece55

*Re: PDN - Paladin Resources*



It's Snake Pliskin said:


> Reece,
> 
> ... a possible route it MAY take but it is not set in stone as I am sure you know. The trouble I find with EW is it is only confirmed in hindsight: "that was a wave 3"
> 
> "weakness" be prepared / go short.
> "strength" take an entry / be prepared.
> 
> Simple stuff and in the case of PDN no long entry in sight unless scalping.




I do agree that EW is subjective, but still provides a good indication of a likely move. I wait for other confirmation before committing $$ however, although some here do make a good $$ from just EW (look at Kauri, he has come up with some rippers).

I am with you here Snake - PDN = downtrend, equals either sidelines or short until down trend broken. 

Cheers
Reece


----------



## Kauri

*Re: PDN - Paladin Resources*



It's Snake Pliskin said:


> Lets fnd the low risk entry by BEING SURE of the strength.
> 
> Who is buyign selling does not matter. The result of that does.
> 
> Kauri, Reece,
> You have missed what Joules picked up.
> 
> Cheers
> Snake



      Hi Snake,
                  Rather than miss what Joules saw I was looking a little further afield, taking into consideration that the price has reacted with strong volume the three times it has touched my tentative upper chanell/resistance, but also noting that the four times it has touched the horizontal resistance it has also re-acted, albeit not as conclusively, but none the less rejected breaking it, hence my opinion of indecivesness. I thought that the tone of his posts suggested he saw more than just one rejection of the upper trendline and I suggested he share his thoughts. Maybe he was looking at the larger picture, maybe not.
                 Whether it goes up/down/sideways from here I don't know.. a prediction of the future direction, I don't have one.... but I am, like a good boy scout, ready to act if and when it shows its hand/strength. 
         Cheers
                 Kauri


----------



## barney

*Re: PDN - Paladin Resources*

Howdy Lads, Just my 2 bobs worth ................. Lowish Volatility relative to the low sp, and divergance on price and Momentum (rising) over the last week or so tells me a turn around may be close (or at least a solid consolidation phase) ...... I wouldn't be brave enough to short it atm ........... Cheers.


----------



## alankew

*Re: PDN - Paladin Resources*

Did anyone get to the bottom of Joules riddles and question and answer session.Joules are you hinting at a takeover perhaps,perhaps you could enlighten the rest of the board.Certainly taking a hammering


----------



## Kauri

*Re: PDN - Paladin Resources*



Kauri said:


> At the moment the volume and price range/movement isn't telling me too much apart from that there is a lot of indecision and it would seem that there is "Harvey Norman" activity by the larger players??
> In *(my)* perfect world we would have a fake of the horizontal support that closed up at its high on high buying volume that also co-incided with the typical larger W*(4) *and also the typical intermediate W*5* and that also came close to the trading chanell. If a strong buyer supported minor W1-W2 then happened I would probably be in with my ears pinned back.. : .. Now back to work on my Lotto system...




 Well she has dropped down close to the lower chanell/W*(4)/*W*5...* now to see if support comes in at all or it is the beginning of a rout.. I personally will be waiting for a minor W1-W2 to form with the (for me) correct vol/bar range characteristics to form before I am tempted to rejoin....



Joules MM1 said:


> see that big volume spike? Do you think that the people who bought that volume are "indecisive".
> 
> volume has two sides.......buyers and sellers......who bought that volume, who sold that volume......
> 
> .......forget the elliott count........that hindsight stuff........concentrate on forward looking.......and who else is forward looking.......what are THEIR reasons?




   Joules... I guess the people you were referring to as indecisive who bought that recent vol spike at the top of the chanell are even less indecisive with their buying this morning ...probably explains what is going to be another vol spike???


----------



## hacheln_mice

*Re: PDN - Paladin Resources*

Is this 'mean reversion' at play?
-----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------


----------



## alankew

*Re: PDN - Paladin Resources*

Reminds me of the volatility and downward pressure that ZFX was put on when it went down to $14ish(?).Not brave enough to enter at the moment but will be watching.Incredible speed of change in the SP today.Think that maybe a few longs/CFDs are being closed as although its a down day think this has been overdone short term


----------



## Kauri

*Re: PDN - Paladin Resources*



alankew said:


> Reminds me of the volatility and downward pressure that ZFX was put on when it went down to $14ish(?).Not brave enough to enter at the moment but will be watching.Incredible speed of change in the SP today.Think that maybe a few longs/CFDs are being closed as although its a down day think this has been overdone short term




  As I read on Nick Radge's site this morning ..it went something like.. "imagine all of the stops set just below the recently three times touched support line ( around 8.40 )"... I guess more than a few of them have gone off today...


----------



## alankew

*Re: PDN - Paladin Resources*

So Kauri do you/Nick that this is intentional  (maybe this is what Joules was suggesting).On its way down again as i type


----------



## Kauri

*Re: PDN - Paladin Resources*



alankew said:


> So Kauri do you/Nick that this is intentional (maybe this is what Joules was suggesting).On its way down again as i type




  For what Nick thinks you will have to ask him....
  What Joules thinks I have no idea and no wish to find out...
   What I think should be taken with a grain of sand, I'm still very much finding my way with this... but for what it is worth if professionals had deliberately run the obvious stops with the intention of getting cheap shares we should have seen more of a roo tail bar with the _knowledgable ones_ snapping up the stops and pushing the bar close back up near the top????
  Cheers
             Kauri


----------



## chris1983

*Re: PDN - Paladin Resources*

I decided to take an entry on this one.  They should ramp up their production sooner than later IMO.  Get tht sorted and the SP will react.  Also a forum member sent me this article titled "Four Uranium Auctions in 17 Days"  I think the spot price will continue to rise so I have taken a position.

http://resourcexinvestor.com/news.php?id=1577


----------



## chris1983

*Re: PDN - Paladin Resources*

Paladin is trading very strongly in Canada.  Currently at 7.69 CAD

*7.69 CAD	=	8.61099 AUD*

There is an auction today so it should be interesting to see what happens on Monday.  They are obviously predicting another increase in the spot price hence pushing PDN's SP higher.

_"Later this week, on June 15th, Nufcor offers 200 thousand pounds U3O8 and 100 tUF6."_

Source below.

http://www.stockinterview.com/News/06102007/Four-Uranium-Auctions-Price.html


----------



## Uncle Festivus

*Re: PDN - Paladin Resources*

A cleansing purge perhaps? Price now back where it was before the ann.
And found support @ $8.00, OBV rising.



> *PDN: Delivery Time*
> 
> Paladin Resources (PDN) plummeted over 5% yesterday, compounding a 33% fall over the past 2 months, following an announcement that uranium production from its flagship Langer Heinrich project would be around half (~0.27mlb U3O8) for the June 07H of the previous guidance of 0.4–0.6mlb.
> With the stock now around $8.10, and with standout leverage to a booming uranium price, Macquarie Research Equities (MRE) *reiterate their $9.30 price target*, and highlight the company’s strengths as well as weaknesses in the following article.



http://www.macquarie.com.au/wasp/dailytrader/dailytrader_dttradingpickofday_3.htm


----------



## Kauri

*Re: PDN - Paladin Resources*



Uncle Festivus said:


> A cleansing purge perhaps? Price now back where it was before the ann.
> And found support @ $8.00, OBV rising.




  Hi Uncle,
             Agree it looks like it *may* have found a bottom, at a typical E/W confluence zone as well, follow up buying pushing it up and closing well would be good to see now. Also note that it has one of those three inside bar set-ups that Cannie is looking at in his mech, trading development thread.
 Cheers
 Kauri


----------



## Nick Radge

*Re: PDN - Paladin Resources*

Very strong volume over the last 3-days, especially Thurs/Fri. The important thing here is that this strong volume aligns itself with the background strength seen in February.

We also have a descending wedge off the April 10 highs.

Be short at your own peril!


_This post may contain advice that has been prepared by Reef Capital Coaching ABN 24 092 309 978 (“RCC”) and is general advice and does not take account of your objectives, financial situation or needs. Before acting on this general advice you should therefore consider the appropriateness of the advice having regard to your situation. We recommend you obtain financial, legal and taxation advice before making any financial investment decision._


----------



## reece55

*Re: PDN - Paladin Resources*

Really liked the fact that the weak holders hear have been completely shaken out on Wednesday and I'm with most here stating that we may have found a bottom here. The volume spikes show keen buying support with strong hands picking up the stock for a song. Lets see if it can break that trend channel it's been in of late, but if it looks strong I might leg into this one early.....

Best of luck to all holders here.....

Cheers


----------



## Sean K

*Re: PDN - Paladin Resources*



Kauri said:


> Hi Uncle,
> Agree it looks like it *may* have found a bottom, at a typical E/W confluence zone as well, follow up buying pushing it up and closing well would be good to see now. Also note that it has one of those three inside bar set-ups that Cannie is looking at in his mech, trading development thread.
> Cheers
> Kauri



Agree with the potential turn around here. Those last 2 candles represent a change in sentiment to me. The (almost) dragon fly doji is a potential reversal signal. The longer tails on the previous two candles are also more positive, both touching $8 and pulling back. Also close to 200d ma which might provide support also. 

Of course anything can and will happen. 

Would like to see a higher low and high for a start.


----------



## nizar

*Re: PDN - Paladin Resources*



kennas said:


> Agree with the potential turn around here. Those last 2 candles represent a change in sentiment to me. The (almost) dragon fly doji is a potential reversal signal. The longer tails on the previous two candles are also more positive, both touching $8 and pulling back. Also close to 200d ma which might provide support also.
> 
> Of course anything can and will happen.
> 
> Would like to see a higher low and high for a start.




I would wait for it to form a bottom and start going up again. Still struggles to have a white candle close.

200dma has been a solid support since 2004. But anything can happen.
Who says it will be support again?

Damn even on the longterm chart that late feb drop is really significant, $10.88-7.50 peak to trough in 8 trading days -- or 31%.


----------



## chris1983

*Re: PDN - Paladin Resources*



nizar said:


> I would wait for it to form a bottom and start going up again. Still struggles to have a white candle close.
> 
> 200dma has been a solid support since 2004. But anything can happen.
> Who says it will be support again?
> 
> Damn even on the longterm chart that late feb drop is really significant, $10.88-7.50 peak to trough in 8 trading days -- or 31%.




Didn't this one touch bottom at 7.90 last week?  Was that the low it his recently?  I saw it bounce back so was in at 8.15.  Its back up to 8.45 now and looks strong again..maybe heading back up over 9 dollars if the recent uranium auctions rise the spot price again?


----------



## BradK

*Re: PDN - Paladin Resources*



nizar said:


> I would wait for it to form a bottom and start going up again. Still struggles to have a white candle close.




Nizar, 

Looks like we might get a white candle today. Im in on CFD at 8.35 - and despite the fact that my message is less than 100 characters, it just gives me another op to say, 'looks like we might get a white candle today' 

Cheers
Brad


----------



## Go Nuke

*Re: PDN - Paladin Resources*



BradK said:


> Nizar,
> 
> Looks like we might get a white candle today. Im in on CFD at 8.35 - and despite the fact that my message is less than 100 characters, it just gives me another op to say, 'looks like we might get a white candle today'
> 
> Cheers
> Brad




Yes it looks like you will get your white candle
Though there looks to be alot of people wanting to get out at $8.50

Maybe thats just the bears


----------



## chris1983

*Re: PDN - Paladin Resources*



kennas said:


> Agree with the potential turn around here. Those last 2 candles represent a change in sentiment to me. The (almost) dragon fly doji is a potential reversal signal. The longer tails on the previous two candles are also more positive, both touching $8 and pulling back. Also close to 200d ma which might provide support also.
> 
> Of course anything can and will happen.
> 
> Would like to see a higher low and high for a start.




This trading thing can be fun hey.  I jumped out at 8.70.  Decided to lock in profits but PDN definately look to be moving back up to that $9 mark.  I must add its only fun when you make money though.


----------



## Moneybags

*Re: PDN - Paladin Resources*



chris1983 said:


> This trading thing can be fun hey.  I jumped out at 8.70.  Decided to lock in profits but PDN definately look to be moving back up to that $9 mark.  I must add its only fun when you make money though.




Nicely done Chris. I am surprised you decided to exit though when you clearly think it's heading up to the $9 mark. I'm going to hang on for a bit and see what this does.

MB


----------



## chris1983

*Re: PDN - Paladin Resources*



Moneybags said:


> Nicely done Chris. I am surprised you decided to exit though when you clearly think it's heading up to the $9 mark. I'm going to hang on for a bit and see what this does.
> 
> MB




I think it is but you can never be sure.  Im only having a bit of a change with some margin loan money.  Trading margin loanable stocks.


----------



## Sean K

*Re: PDN - Paladin Resources*



kennas said:


> Agree with the potential turn around here. Those last 2 candles represent a change in sentiment to me. The (almost) dragon fly doji is a potential reversal signal. The longer tails on the previous two candles are also more positive, both touching $8 and pulling back. Also close to 200d ma which might provide support also.
> 
> Of course anything can and will happen.
> 
> Would like to see a higher low and high for a start.



Not out of the wood yet IMO, but I might be too conservative and am always in too late. 

Looks to me like around $9.00 is going to be some trouble. I'm sticking with my call that a higher low and high it required. Breaking $9.10 ish is probably getting there.  

Well done to you guys that had the courage to get in at what looked to be a reversal at $8.00.


----------



## Uncle Festivus

*Re: PDN - Paladin Resources*

Interesting Kennas. Telling signs in early trading when looking at the tape action which showed a persistent buyer @ 851 all morning then it just exploded with the afternoon rally, finishing near the high & up 4% for the session. More important was the good follow up volume. Failed to break the trendline, so may re-trace a bit? Any elliot people care to comment?


----------



## Kauri

*Re: PDN - Paladin Resources*

As per my earlier posts..for my entry to be triggered I need a pullback to form a W2...my entry would then *possibly *come in on the following W3... mind you sometimes it doesn't pullback and I miss out..    story of my life but that is another story.....


----------



## Sean K

*Re: PDN - Paladin Resources*



Kauri said:


> As per my earlier posts..for my entry to be triggered I need a pullback to form a W2...my entry would then *possibly *come in on the following W3... mind you sometimes it doesn't pullback and I miss out..    story of my life but that is another story.....



I'd expect there to be some hesitation just under $9.00 and that downward trend line Kauri. But you're right, might have missed out on a dollar + by then. On the other hand, how many times have you seen a stock stop under resistance, and fail? Will be interesting to see how it plays out, if not just for education.


----------



## Kauri

*Re: PDN - Paladin Resources*



kennas said:


> I'd expect there to be some hesitation just under $9.00 and that downward trend line Kauri. But you're right, might have missed out on a dollar + by then. On the other hand, how many times have you seen a stock stop under resistance, and fail? Will be interesting to see how it plays out, if not just for education.




   Kennas
              Yes, for me correct entries are everything... I'm still sporting a black-eye from the last time I tried to nail the bottom...    ..


----------



## j4mesa

*Re: PDN - Paladin Resources*

The going ups of PDN (4.01%) is also folllowed by the going ups of ERA (10.18%).
Fundamentally, is this the sign of the coming back of the uranium sector ? 
We shall see what happens tomorrow....


----------



## Sean K

*Re: PDN - Paladin Resources*

Gapped up to just under 9 and has paused. Slightly outside downward trend line. Potential breakout at this moment perhaps.


----------



## Kauri

*Re: PDN - Paladin Resources*



Kauri said:


> *11 June*...In *(my)* perfect world we would have a fake of the horizontal support that closed up at its high on high buying volume that also co-incided with the typical larger W*(4) *and also the typical intermediate W*5* and that also came close to the trading chanell. If a strong buyer supported minor W1-W2 then happened I would probably be in with my ears pinned back.. : .. Now back to work on my Lotto system...




 Hi Kennas,
   Kind of frustrating when everything plays out the way you wanted.... all except the entry   .. may pull back yet and provide an opportunity to get in but the RR for a long-term trade may not be there(for me).. maybe a shorter-term trade though.. if not there are plenty of other stocks out there..   
  Cheers
         Kauri


----------



## chris1983

*Re: PDN - Paladin Resources*

hmm..still could run further?  I sold too early..thought it might pullback..doesnt look like it will   I was going to hold till 9.50..too bad I dont follow my own advice to hold also!


----------



## Uncle Festivus

*Re: PDN - Paladin Resources*

This ones off & running gents. Don't miss the boat while thinking of what could have been 
_________________________________________________________________


----------



## rapidex

*Re: PDN - Paladin Resources*

Solid breakout looks in place. Strong volume too over the last week or so. Looking good at the moment. Looks like a number of U stocks coming back into flavor.


----------



## Kauri

*Re: PDN - Paladin Resources*

Has tried to pull back into a W2 but not really convincing yet... if it is extremely bullish it may get away with a 25% pullback but it leaves me out for an acceptable RR longer-term trade... just might be a chance for a shorter-term trade though?? Time will tell...


----------



## It's Snake Pliskin

*Re: PDN - Paladin Resources*



Kauri said:


> Has tried to pull back into a W2 but not really convincing yet... if it is extremely bullish it may get away with a 25% pullback but it leaves me out for an acceptable RR longer-term trade... just might be a chance for a shorter-term trade though?? Time will tell...




Kauri,

What R/R do you look for? 

I see from entering now a 3x oportunity - but that is in my world and derived from my acceptance of where the risk lies.

I just picked up some at $9.01.


----------



## Kauri

*Re: PDN - Paladin Resources*



It's Snake Pliskin said:


> Kauri,
> 
> What R/R do you look for?
> 
> I see from entering now a 3x oportunity - but that is in my world and derived from my acceptance of where the risk lies.




  Hi Snake,
                On the longer-term part of my trading I look for 4xRR... on the shorter-term part I look for 2xRR... not basd on my trading strike rate as such but on backtesting of the results to give me the optimum number of trades with close to the optimum return...  With an entry of $9.26 and a stop at $7.91 and a likely wave5 area of $14 odd I come up closer to the 3xRR area    If it does take off without me there is always a good chance of jumping on later on in the wave on a shallower correction...
    As my old father used to tell me constantly.."Nothing is foolproof to a talented enough fool"... 
.....Cheers
.........Kauri


----------



## It's Snake Pliskin

*Re: PDN - Paladin Resources*



Kauri said:


> Hi Snake,
> On the longer-term part of my trading I look for 4xRR... on the shorter-term part I look for 2xRR... not basd on my trading strike rate as such but on backtesting of the results to give me the optimum number of trades with close to the optimum return...  With an entry of $9.26 and a stop at $7.91 and a likely wave5 area of $14 odd I come up closer to the 3xRR area    If it does take off without me there is always a good chance of jumping on later on in the wave on a shallower correction...
> As my old father used to tell me constantly.."Nothing is foolproof to a talented enough fool"...
> .....Cheers
> .........Kauri




Thanks Kauri.

As I am pure discretionary I like anything higher than 2x, including 2x. My bias is to take short term near sure trades that can exhibit 2x and try at least for 3x for the longer term ones. Maybe my stop is too tight on this one:$8.40
Entry $9.01 taken not long ago.  

Cheers..


----------



## Kauri

*Re: PDN - Paladin Resources*



It's Snake Pliskin said:


> Thanks Kauri.
> 
> As I am pure discretionary I like anything higher than 2x, including 2x. My bias is to take short term near sure trades that can exhibit 2x and try at least for 3x for the longer term ones. Maybe my stop is too tight on this one:$8.40
> Entry $9.01 taken not long ago.
> 
> Cheers..




  Snake,
           $8.40 looks good from a Wycoff view, I have been trying to incorporate Wycoff principles into my E/W plan but so far with limited success... hard to track down good info on it..  
.....Cheers
........Kauri


----------



## It's Snake Pliskin

*Re: PDN - Paladin Resources*



Kauri said:


> Snake,
> $8.40 looks good from a Wycoff view, I have been trying to incorporate Wycoff principles into my E/W plan but so far with limited success... hard to track down good info on it..
> .....Cheers
> ........Kauri




Kauri,

Yes material is hard to get and I personally don't use it 100%. I am a hybrid

Some discussion and analysis of the hindsight kind for PDN.

A breach of $8.40 I see as bearish and time to get out until it is clear what it wants to do. 

Cheers


----------



## dj_420

*Re: PDN - Paladin Resources*

article found on PDN, fairly lengthy had to split it up over three posts

Uranium, Paladin
By Charlie Aitken 

Our focus is on long duration themes supported by strong industry fundamentals. We believe an investment strategy with a macro top-down view, which is complemented by a micro bottom-up analysis, highlights real investment opportunities and long-term outperformance. This strategy can be even more self-fulfilling if the theme is supported by Government policy and incentives. In this context we believe the resurgence of the global uranium price represents the emergence of new genuine long-term bull market.

Positive fundamentals

The long term fundamentals of the uranium market remain very strong, with a significant increase in global demand, against a backdrop of future supply shortages, supported by the first synchronised effort by world Governments to reduce global carbon emissions. There is no doubt that global warming is a very major issue for political parties worldwide, seeking to reduce the dependence on fossil fuels and promote the usage of clean energy alternatives.

The uranium supply

Interestingly, the uranium market is supported by precisely the same supply constraint characteristics as base metals. Decades of low uranium prices (U3 O8) previously discouraged any investment in future primary production. As a result, there are major production constraints and serious delays in the supply response to the increase in global demand.Since 1985 static mine production has resulted in up to 50% of reactor uranium requirements sourced from secondary supply.

The uranium supply side is unusual in commodity markets considering a large proportion is sourced from secondary sources and stockpiles. However, both these sources of supply are currently under serious threat.The two main sources of uranium supply have been Western inventories accumulated from the shutdown of reactors, and the Highly Enriched Uranium (HEU) supply form nuclear weapons. However, the security of this supply is problematic with the rundown in Western inventory supplies to critical levels of just 12 months reactor feed.

In addition, the future HEU supply from nuclear weapons is also in doubt with the Russian government recently announcing that it would not continue the “Megatons to Megawatts” programme when it expires in 2013.This program has been the major source of secondary supply and its imminent closure has serious ramifications for Western World supply. It is worth noting that in 2006, according to World Nuclear Association (WNA) figures, the deficit between mine supply of 39,655kt, and global demand was a massive 40%.In other words, last year secondary supply totalled 22,981kt.To put this in context, Cameco is the world’s largest producer with production of 8,039kt last year. There is a critical and structural uranium supply deficit, which is expected to deteriorate significantly unless new supply is commissioned.

No cigar thanks.

However, the mine supply response has recently suffered a huge blow with the flooding of the massive Cigar Lake project in Canada. The reserve estimate of 100kt was expected to support initial production of 2kt pa in 2008 before ramping up the full production of 8kt pa in 2010. The problems at Cigar Lake are expected to delay first production until 2009 at the earliest. Elsewhere there is some new supply expected to be commissioned before 2010 ex Cigar Lake, but the majority is expected to come form Kazakhstan. Yes, uranium is Kazakhstan’s second best export after Borat. However, Kazakhstan is suffering massive skilled labour and infrastructure shortages and new production is expected to suffer serious delays. We believe a meaningful uranium supply response will be delayed until at least 2011.

The implications of the unexpected delay in the Cigar Lake project cannot be underestimated. Considering there is a 4-5 year lead time to convert uranium to a reactor fuel source, utilities require long dated contracts of at least 5 years for security of supply. Consequently, the massive spike in the uranium spot price is reflecting a significant gap in the supply horizon. Despite the market scepticism, we think the current uranium spot price is very sustainable for at least the next 4-5 years.

Tight supply

The static nature of global uranium production is highlighted by production figures from the World Nuclear Association (WNA).Global production from 1998 averaged 34,665kt pa, for the 6 years to 2003.New supply resulted in a small increase in production in 2004 and 2005 before falling 5% to 39,655kt last year. This was entirely due to a 20% fall in mine production from ERA’s ranger mine. Importantly, the global uranium industry is an oligopoly, so even a small problem with one incumbent producer has a disproportionate impact on global production. We think the uranium market is another perfect commodity storm, with supply disruptions occurring against a backdrop of rising demand and chronically low inventory levels. Sound familiar? I think the playbook has already been written in the base metal markets.

Reactor requirements.

The major source of uranium demand is for base-load electricity generation. The International Energy Agency (IEA) projects a doubling of world electricity demand by 2030, creating the need for some 4700 GWe of new generating capacity in the next quarter of a century. According to the WNA figures, from 2010 to 2020, Asia comprising mostly China, Japan, India and South Korea, will account for about 36% of the world’s new electricity generating capacity, of which nearly 40% will be sourced from nuclear power. In East and South Asia there are currently over 109 nuclear power reactors in operation,18 under construction and plans to build a further 110.

BRIC demand

Already in some parts of Asia, nuclear power forms a large part of total electricity generation. Currently South Korea and Japan generate 45% and 30% respectively of electricity through nuclear power using roughly 18% of world uranium production. However in China, nuclear power produces just 1.4% of electricity generation, and only 4% in India. Historically China has generated the vast majority of electricity through its enormous coal reserves, however recently China has now become a net importer of coal for the first time. We believe there is potential for China and India to massively increase electricity generation through nuclear power. In a similar scenario to base metals, we believe the BRIC economies will drive a significant increase in nuclear power.

The WNA reported that in May this year there were 437 operable reactors worldwide supplying about 16% of the global energy requirements. However as we have noted, the current figure is set to change rapidly with the planned additions to nuclear powered electricity generation in Asia from 2010.

Europe renaissance

However, in Europe the tide appears to have turned full circle in favour of nuclear power in just a few years. Only two reactors had been built in Europe since the Chernobyl disaster. However, recently the UK Government admitted nuclear power was back as an alternative energy source, and in Germany, the Government admitted that closing nuclear plants was ill advised and the country needed a balanced energy mix.

The turnaround in Europe is for two reasons-the monopoly position of Gazprom as an energy provider to Europe, and the determination by governments world wide, to cut greenhouse gas emissions. The WNA estimates that the total fuel costs of a nuclear power in the OECD are typically about a third of those for a coal-fired plant and between a quarter and a fifth of those for a gas combined-cycle plant.

Finally it appears that the long held irrational fears of nuclear power are beginning to fade. It is amazing that despite the paranoia there are over 400 reactors currently operating worldwide.


----------



## dj_420

*Re: PDN - Paladin Resources*

Nuclear, gas or coal

The economic cost of comparing electricity generation between nuclear, coal and gas is complicated by the capital cost of building a reactor. It varies enormously between countries. In addition it is also complicated by the relative access to fossil fuels, hydro-electric power etc.

However there are few obvious advantages over fossil fuels. Firstly uranium has the advantage of being a highly concentrated source of energy which easily and cheaply transportable. In addition, the quantities needed are very much less than for coal or oil. One kilogram of natural uranium will yield about 20,000 times as much energy as the same amount of coal.

Secondly, the contribution of nuclear fuel to the overall cost of electricity produced is relatively small. Therefore even a large uranium price escalation will have relatively little effect on cost. For example a doubling of the uranium price will increase the reactor fuel cost by 26%, but the electricity cost by just 7%.However a doubling of the gas price will typically add 70% to the electricity cost. This will be very significant advantage for nuclear power in a “higher for longer” commodity cycle.

Thirdly, nuclear power has always been characterised by a combination of higher construction and lower operating costs compared to fossil energy. However, the capital cost of building nuclear generating capacity has fallen significantly over the last few decades. In 2003 the Energy Information Agency (EIA) estimated a starting point of $2083kW for nuclear power electricity generation. However just 4 years later, the new generation Westinghouse reactors are in the range of$1000-1500 per kW. As a result, the WNA estimates that nuclear fuel costs in the US have fallen from 1.28c per kWh in the mid 1980s to only 0.44 cents per kWh today.

Global warming.

The other huge and long term positive for the economics of nuclear electricity generation is global warming. There is no doubt that greenhouse emissions have become the number one political issue for governments worldwide. In addition, as fossil fuel begins to incur costs through carbon taxes or emission trading schemes, the competitiveness of new nuclear plants clearly improves significantly. his is particularly so with the comparison of coal-fired plants because they are so carbon intensive.

The increased competitive position of nuclear power under a carbon tax regime is highlighted by a recent study by the Canadian Energy Research Institute (CERI).The study assumes imposing a carbon tax of C$15 per tonne of emitted CO2. The impact is to raise the generating cost of a coal plant by 27% per MWh, which is line in line with nuclear cost in Canada, whereas a gas plant rises by about 8%.It is worth noting that this study assumes a static cost of commodity prices in the future, which is highly unlikely. Clearly the impact of a global missions trading scheme will be huge positive for electricity generation through nuclear power.

Pricing power

In the light of the supply constraints, and the concentration in the power of the producers, there has been a distinct shift in pricing power from consumers to miners. The result is a change in the nature of contract pricing to a price floor with no caps, and a larger proportion of market linked pricing mechanisms rather than fixed. Currently about 15% of uranium is sourced through the spot market while long term contract price account for 85% of the balance of global supply. In addition, the duration of contracts are changing from 3-5 years to longer dated 10 year contracts as utilities seek security of supply.

Yellowcake and it eat it too.

The case for a sustained long term bull market for uranium is compelling. There is a structural not cyclical, long term supply deficit of uranium. In addition, any meaningful increase in production is not expected until 2011 and that is only expected to supplement the terminal decline from secondary sources. In addition, global inventories are now virtually non-existent.

Further, global electricity generation demand is expected to double out to 2030, and the world is committed to lowering greenhouse gas emissions by imposing a carbon tax regime.

At the same time electricity generation through nuclear power is more cost efficient compared to fossil fuels. This not rocket science it is about electricity generation. Uranium is green, clean, lower cost and a longer term alternative to fossil fuels power generation.

Analysts are currently factoring in a long term uranium price of approx $US40 -50lb.However just like the dramatic increases in long term oil assumptions we believe consensus forecasts will prove too conservative. We think the long term fundamentals support a uranium price remaining above $US100lb for at least the next decade with the potential for spot price spikes higher than the current level of $US135lb.This has significant implications for current producers to benefit from substantially higher contract prices, while the incumbent uranium remain fixed on legacy contracts of $US25-30lb.In this context Paladin (PDN) as a producer is in a unique position to lock in windfall profits for the next decade.

Paladin: $5bil market cap and nobody owns it

Paladin is a W.A development and exploration company focused on advanced stage uranium projects. It completed the construction and commissioning of its first mine, Langer Heinrich in Namibia, on time and on budget at the end of last year. PDN commenced production this year. In addition, PDN has the Kayelekera project in Malawi currently under review with the possibility of production by late 2008.Further PDN the potentially very large Valhalla project. Paladin also has several less advanced uranium projects such as Manyingee and Oobagooma projects in W.A.

Summit (SUM)

In July 2006 management initiated a $174m successful scrip bid for Valhalla Uranium Ltd (VUL).Valhalla’s main project is a 50% JV with Summit (SMM) in the Valhalla uranium deposit in Qld. Subsequently Paladin bid for SMM, and after a bitter battle, announced at the close of the offer on June 1, a relevant interest of 81.82%.

Langer Heinrich

The Langer Heinrich deposit is located 80km east of Walvis Bay, Namibia’s major sea port, and 40km south of RIO’s Rossing uranium mine. The original company forecast was for production of 1.2kt pa (3.2Mlbs) from a resource of 33kt U3 08. However, this been extended through drilling to 47kt.This has allowed PDN to consider a Stage 2 expansion, which is expected to start in 2009, enabling an increase production to 1,800kt pa. The big upside is the low cost option of increasing production by 50%.

Due to the mineralization of the deposit, the plant is using an alkaline leach process as opposed to the more common acid leach process. This is the first alkaline leach used in an open cut; however the majority of the In-situ Leach operations have been using alkaline leaching for 20 years.

In addition, the Langer Heinrich project is a low cost operation with cash costs estimated by the company at approx $US18lb.Considering the current uranium spot prices of $US138lb, and contract prices of $US95lb, this makes the 50% EBITDA margins of the iron-ore companies look very ordinary by comparison. It is important to note that uranium production is a bulk mining exercise but the uranium producers are receiving base metal price premiums.

The Langer Heinrich deposit remains highly prospective with the ore body open in some areas. Further, PDN has acquired an exploration licence immediately west of the current mining licence. Our current estimate of the mine life is 17 years which includes the Stage 2 project, and assumes a 76% conversion of current resources to reserves. Given the Heinrich mineralisation we think this is reasonably conservative.

The total capital requirement for the project has been estimated at $US230m over the life of the operation, with Stage 1 already complete. However the economies of scale for the Stage 2 expansion is expected to cost a fraction of Stage 1.

PDN has a strong balance sheet and remains well funded after the commissioning of Stage 1. At the latest quarterly, the company confirmed a cash position of $US257m.


----------



## dj_420

*Re: PDN - Paladin Resources*

Unhedged and fully leveraged.

PDN has already committed 50% of Stage I production to a long term contract at $US60lb with an escalator for price participation above $US80lb.This is well above the legacy contracts for the incumbent producers of $US25-30lb. However the other 50% of production is expected to be sold into the spot market where the current price has risen to $US138lb.In addition, PDN is totally unhedged and fully leveraged for 50% of production to the spot price. Considering PDN recently announced production delays due to operational issues, the subsequent rise in the spot price is big positive. As a result, PDN is in a very advantageous and highly profitable position compared to the global peer group.

Namibia

In addition the Namibian Govt has recently reduced its royalty on uranium mining from 5% to 2%. This highlights a very important issue for mining companies operating in foreign countries. The Namibia Govt clearly supports, and is keen to encourage, global mining companies to develop Namibia’s mineral wealth. By example, RIO has been operating its JV Rossing mine in Namibia, which is only 40km away from Langer Heinrich, for years with minimal Govt intervention.

FY production on target

Recently PDN has experienced some operational issues at Langer Heinrich that have subsequently been resolved, and the ramp up in production has resumed. As a result, on June 13 the company downgraded the initial June 30 production target of 400,000lb to 270,000lb.

Our forecasts already included a more conservative 326,000lbs in anticipation of initial plant teething problems. However, management confirmed “that the plant is now quickly reaching the end of the transitional phase and will move into full production forecast production”. Importantly PDN has confirmed the previous production target of 2.6mlbs or 1,179kt for FY 08 compared to our FY 08 forecast of 1,134kt.

Kayelekera

PDN also has the Kayelekera project in Malawi with the possibility of production by late 2008.Malawi while poor, is relatively stable with a democratic country. In fact a person on our trading desk has actually visited Malawi and has returned to confirm the story. Kayelekera has a mine life of approx 13 years and is expected to ramp up to full production of 1,500lbs pa by the end of 2010.The technical risk is viewed as low and considering the mineralisation the more conventional acid leach process is possible. Recently there have been reports that the start up date will be delayed due lack of energy availability and access to the local electricity grid. However PDN has reiterated the original proposal was based on on-site diesel power generation on figures submitted to the Malawi Government.

Valhalla

We believe Valhalla is the jewel in the crown. Valhalla is an advanced high grade exploration project, near Mt Isa with the promising Skal deposit 10km to the East. The current resource is estimated at 31kt, but we think this will prove very conservative considering the ore body is open on all sides. After an expected start up in 2012, Valhalla is expected to ramp up to full production of 3kt pa, however we think this will be significantly upgraded. In addition it gives PDN access to the Bigrlyi deposit in the NT where the resource has recently been upgraded by 26% to 14.3mlbs or 6400kts.

PDN originally acquired 50% of Valhalla for $A174m and subsequently bid and acquired SUM, which owned the other 50%.However, in the course of the takeover Areva the world’s largest marketer of uranium acquired 10.46% on market at $6.10.

This was after Areva failed in an attempt to take 9% of SUM at $6.20 in a placement, with an option to take a further 9% at $7.20.

However, Areva has really endorsed the value of the Valhalla deposit considering the cost of their 10.46% stake was $132m.I am a pretty simple guy but this values Valhalla at $A1.26b compared to PDN’s original purchase of $174m for 50%.This has created some serious shareholder value for PDN shareholders. It is worth noting that Areva is the world’s largest utility producer of nuclear powered electricity. I think they have a fair idea of the long term value of uranium.

Radioactive upside

After the Langer Heinrich Stage 2 expansion, full production is expected to be 1,800ktpa by FY 09 and rising to 3250kt with Kayelekera by the FY 2010.On 2006 global production levels, this would place PDN above RIO as the world’s 6th largest uranium producer.

Tradetech the uranium industry body has reported that the spot price recently reached $US138lb and the long term price, which is equivalent to the bottom of the contract price range, has risen by $US10lb to $US95lb.PDN is totally unhedged and has exposure of 50% of production at spot prices. At the current spot price based on the relationship between the share price and the uranium price that has existed for the last few years, PDN is worth between $13-14.

However the upside case for PDN is highlighted by the sxr Uranium One $US3.1b bid for UrAsia to form a $US5b company with a global footprint of uranium assets. The bid values UrAsia’s resources at $US31lb compared to $US16lb for PDN. Applying the same implied EV/lb multiple, PDN is worth $19 per share.

PDN is a serious company, with some very serious credentials, however it appears that institutional shareholders are viewing PDN with the same scepticism as FMG. We all know attitudes are changing towards FMG and clearly they are about to change towards PDN. There should be no doubt that PDN shares could easily “do a Fortescue”.

If you believe in the long-term growth of the nuclear power industry you should be buying PDN. We see PDN needing a “big brother” to accelerate its growth prospects, and we wouldn’t be surprised to see a larger corporate have a tilt at it. Xstrata could be that big brother.


----------



## rederob

*Re: PDN - Paladin Resources*

dj
Thanks for the morning read
I regard PDN as the "no brainer" from an investing perspective.
Your posted article confirms the long term potential of the company.
An aspect that many investors/traders regularly overlook is that the resources of a company seldom contract in the early years.  One of the best examples is Grasberg, which originally was a meagre resource with a bit of potential.  It's now the worlds largest copper-gold mine by a long chalk.
Accordingly, as PDN gets production underway and continues infill and nearby tenement exploration, resource upgrades are very likely.
I don't think it will be too long before PDN joins the big league of producers, and has a sales pipeline leveraged to continually higher spot uranium.


----------



## Fab

*Re: PDN - Paladin Resources*

I read in the Eureka report this week that tenant in the NT mainly in Amhem land are very prospective one. The question I have is which company are exploring there ??


----------



## j4mesa

*Re: PDN - Paladin Resources*

When I google it,it seems to be somewhere close to the Kakadu, has some degree of prooximity to the FNT tenements.......


----------



## Kauri

*Re: PDN - Paladin Resources*



It's Snake Pliskin said:


> Kauri,
> 
> Yes material is hard to get and I personally don't use it 100%. I am a hybrid
> 
> 
> Cheers




 Hi Snake,
             This is what I have managed to gather so far re-Wycoff/prudens wycoff from around the web... 
....Cheers
..........Kauri


----------



## Kauri

*Re: PDN - Paladin Resources*

PDN has reached what I consider to be the typical W2 area... will be interesting to see if it rallies strongly from here..
  ...Cheers
.......Kauri


----------



## It's Snake Pliskin

*Re: PDN - Paladin Resources*

Kauri,

A lot of it is useless I have found, especially for the ASX.
Is your wave count turning out ok? 

How is the DT software?

PDN down today hopefully to reject sub $8.60ish.


----------



## reece55

*Re: PDN - Paladin Resources*



It's Snake Pliskin said:


> Kauri,
> 
> A lot of it is useless I have found, especially for the ASX.
> Is your wave count turning out ok?
> 
> How is the DT software?
> 
> PDN down today hopefully to reject sub $8.60ish.




Looks like that 8.40 that I thought had formed as support has gone straight through (again!).

Comsec no. 1 stock today, yesterday and the day before. All are out of the money here, so unless we see some insto buying underneath it all, the momentum is downwards.

Anyone game to enter???

Cheers


----------



## Moneybags

*Re: PDN - Paladin Resources*

Reece,

I was shocked at how much this dropped this morning on open. Has come back a bit but I'm thinking of bailing. Entered at 8.34 so not too bad but a little worried about what tomorrow might bring if I hang on.

MB


----------



## It's Snake Pliskin

*Re: PDN - Paladin Resources*

I was butchered at the open today - stop was gapped and then trigered at market.

Fortunately only a bandaid will heal the wound to the account. MM.


----------



## Moneybags

*Re: PDN - Paladin Resources*

Sorry to hear that Snake, I don't think anyone expected it to open like it did. 

I had a look at the chart for the last 5 days and there are gaps everywhere.

MB


----------



## It's Snake Pliskin

*Re: PDN - Paladin Resources*



Moneybags said:


> Sorry to hear that Snake, I don't think anyone expected it to open like it did.
> 
> I had a look at the chart for the last 5 days and there are gaps everywhere.
> 
> MB




Yes,

Thank you for your condolences MB.
In retrospect it was not a trade I should have taken. I played my trade out but should have closed out yesterday when faced with the gap at the open. 

Hindsight bias, yes.


----------



## billhill

*Re: PDN - Paladin Resources*

Hey guys. i don't know if this relates to todays falls but this is how i see things at the moment. A lot of money has left the U sector for oil and gas in the last few months. This has lead to PDN basically trading in a sideways/mild downtrend pattern. When the U sector was running hot PDN was one of its darlings and from memory reached around 11 dollars. I don't know for sure but i guess around that time alot of institutions were buying up PDN. Now that the price has dropped well below its highs i'm guessing alot of institutions are holding PDN at a paper loss. So my thinking is that alot will sell out before the end of finacial year to write off the loss. I think up until today many institutions were waiting to see what the share price was going to do. After all  it was looking stronger only a week ago. Maybe to a few institutions saw the weekness yeaterday and decided to dump PDN today this would have depressed the price and other institutions seeing the price fall began to panic and sell out too because they obviously want the best price possible. It will be interesting to see what this stock does after the finacial year. Anyway just my opinion and would like to hear what other people think aswell.


----------



## Sean K

*Re: PDN - Paladin Resources*

I was waiting for a clear break through horizontal line at 9.00 ish, which is now even more significant. Did look to have broken downtrend, but I needed to see it clear that level. Probably lucky in the end, as I was very close to a CFD on that break up, and the gap down through 8.50 support this morning would have been ordinary. You'd expect 8.00 and 200 d ma to once again provide support. Under that, and ouch. Would have to consider a short.


----------



## Out Too Soon

*Re: PDN - Paladin Resources*

DOom & Gloom! we all know from experience the market never bounces back & we should sell everything at a loss I put in an order for PDN on 15th june (@$8.13) & was upset when I missed out, watched the ride over $9  but I didn't cancel the order & shock horror it went through today  So I'll just sit on it & all the other red stocks I have at such a bargain & welcome in the NEW FINANCIAL YEAR. 

PS:- 'Don't Panic'


----------



## JJP

*Re: PDN - Paladin Resources*

High flying stock that  many commodity traders and investors follow.

Its obvious to me (and I am surprised other posters don't seem to be aware)......PDN made it very clear in their last quarterly that they have forward sold 1.5 million pounds of uranium PA. 

That started in 2007 for a period of 5 years.  

They have only shipped 200,000 pounds in the first half of 2007.......so this is a real issue of concern for the company. It is entirely possible, they need to buy hundreds of thousands of pounds of product on the spot market to meet their 2007 supply obligations.

Is it absolutely certain they will overcome all their production probles EVER.

Info provided by the company is not clear......so why would you buy this stock, already priced to perfection, when there are these question marks of a serious nature.   

Company don't use the word HEDGING.......it is a dirty word when the product produced by a mining company increases by 200% in 18 months.
But there can be no doubt, they do have supply and price (probably unfavorably currency forwards) as well locked in. 

SUPPLY is the prime issue right now for them however.


----------



## Out Too Soon

*Re: PDN - Paladin Resources*

woops, OUCH! 
wasn't aware of that JJP, hope that's not the case, I still have some almost worthless Croesus shares. Where did you get this hedging by any other name info, is it really in thier last qtr report? Maybe I'm guilty of just reading the good news.


----------



## Yeti

*Re: PDN - Paladin Resources*

From page three of PDN's March 2007 Quarterly Financial Report and MD&A:-

It is in this context that the significance of Paladin's production readiness should be examined.  
Paladin has term sales contracts to US utilities for approximately 7.5Mlbs U3O8 for delivery between 
2007 to 2012.  These contracts were required to meet bankers’ conditions for its Langer Heinrich 
Project loan.  Kayelekera is forecast to reach full production of 3.3Mlbs U3O8 per annum in 2009 
and the Langer Heinrich Stage 2 expansion is expected to be completed during the latter part of 
2008 to allow that project to produce a minimum of 3.7Mlbs per annum.  Cumulative production by 
Paladin in the critical period to the end of 2012 is expected to be in the vicinity of 31Mlbs.  Even 
using conservative price forecasting (average US$90/lb), the total revenue generated by the 
Company during this period would be in the vicinity of US$2.8 billion (A$3.5 billion) giving Paladin 
significant cash flows with which to advantage its shareholders.

End quote.

Good point JJP.  "7.5Mlbs U3O8 for delivery between 
2007 to 2012". The way this is worded does not necessarily mean 1.5Mlbs per year though. The contract may allow them to make up any shortfall during the first year(s) later, as long as they deliver the  7.5Mlbs by 2012.

I sold my PDN today, getting the feeling it wants to go down again. Just my opinion.


----------



## YELNATS

*Re: PDN - Paladin Resources*



Yeti said:


> I sold my PDN today, getting the feeling it wants to go down again. Just my opinion.




Au contraire, I bought more PDN today, getting the feeling there going up again, probably bought them from you.


----------



## chris1983

*Re: PDN - Paladin Resources*



YELNATS said:


> Au contraire, I bought more PDN today, getting the feeling there going up again, probably bought them from you.




I'll put a buy back in soon.  Hopefully can pick some up around 8.10.  I reckon they will bounce again.


----------



## barney

*Re: PDN - Paladin Resources*

PDN testing long term support level of $7.92 ............... Seems to be holding for the moment ................ Would expect it to bounce back a little from these levels over the next few days ..............


----------



## JJP

*Re: PDN - Paladin Resources*

Re my previous post on the issue of forward sales by Paladin.......look maybe there is probably no reason for concern........however I make the point, because it is just too hard to determine for certain..... one way or another, from the company disclosures.  

Remember PDN have forward sold 7.5 million lbs over the period 2007 to 2012. 

This is what they said in the March quarterly report;

" Paladin has term sales contracts to US utilities for approximately 7.5Mlbs U3O8 for delivery between 2007 to 2012. These contracts were required to meet bankers' conditions for its Langer Heinrich Project loan."

Note...comment to meet bankers conditions - that means a hedge to ensure from the banks point of view that Paladin can service their loan. 

Would an end user allow deferment of a presold uranium supply contract. Can you imagine Paladins customer saying.....  OK we have a contract - but seeing your having problems, provide the uranium in a couple of years of time instead. 

I don't know - not enough explanation from Paladin.

more here:

11/7/2006  

The Mining & Resources Team of Nedbank Capital is pleased to announce the successful conclusion of a limited recourse project finance facility for the establishment, development, construction and operation of a R850 million uranium mining and ore treatment facility at Langer Heinrich in Namibia. 
The project finance facility was concluded jointly with Societe Generale Australia Branch (“SG”) and Standard Bank.  The project is Nedbank Capital’s first limited recourse project finance transaction in Namibia, in the minerals and resources sector.
Nedbank Capital acts as a joint-underwriter and arranger to Paladin Finance (Pty) Ltd, providing project finance debt for a 7-year term sharing equally in a USD $71 million facility together with SG and Standard Bank.  In addition, Nedbank Corporate Namibia has been mandated to act as transactional bankers to the Namibian Project Company.    
“We are pleased to have been able to provide our client with a debt funding solution enabling it to advance its world-class uranium project, together with ensuring compliance with the Equator Principles,” says Mark Tyler: Head of Mining & Resources at Nedbank 

_________________________________________________________________

Here is a self explanatory story that new investors may find to be of interest. I don't ever suggest that it is at all relevant here....but read it anyway.

Sons of Gwalia's gold hedging had big holes
By Stephen Bartholomeusz
September 4, 2004

Page Tools
Email to a friend Printer format   
One of the perplexing questions raised by this week's collapse of Sons of Gwalia is how so many smart investors could have got it so wrong. 

Stranded on the register of the failed tantalum and gold producer are some of the cannier institutional investors, while some of their equally clever peers escaped in the nick of time. 

Among Sons of Gwalia's substantial shareholders are the Templeton group, Schroeder and Aviva. Canadian miner Teck Cominco owns about 10 per cent and a major tantalum customer, Cabot Corp, is also on the register. Goldman Sachs, Wellington and National Australia Bank's funds management businesses were all shareholders until very recently. 

Also exposed to the collapse are some of the world's biggest banks, including Citigroup, HBOS, Goldman Sachs, JPMorgan, Dresdner, HSBC and, locally, ANZ and Commonwealth. 

The institutions which got caught are angry. They knew the company's tantalum and gold arms had their challenges but hadn't envisaged the implosion.


While Sons of Gwalia is Australia's third-largest gold producer, that wasn't its main appeal to the institutions. They were attracted because the company controls more than half the world's production of tantalum - a rare metal used to make capacitors, used in electrical circuits.

Every mobile phone, laptop and video camera has tantalum in it, making Sons of Gwalia a seductive story for fund managers. 

While the tantalum operations have had their share of problems - production difficulties, declining grades and long-term contracts that haven't enabled it to cash in on rising spot prices - they weren't behind Sons of Gwalia's demise. 

It was the gold operations that undermined the group. 

Sons of Gwalia, founded by the Lalor brothers, descendants of the Peter Lalor who led the Eureka Stockade rebellion in 1854, has produced about 5 million ounces of gold since it began producing the metal in 1984. Until this week, it had been expected to produce about 500,000 ounces a year. 

Its ability to generate that production was critical because throughout its history it has fully hedged its production - in effect selling forward its entire output using some extremely complex strategies. 

Generally that strategy has been profitable, although the group was hit hard in 2001 when the Australian dollar dived and its currency hedge generated losses.

Earlier this year the Lalor brothers, Peter and Chris, left the company and a new chief executive, former Pioneer International executive John Leevers, was appointed. A number of board changes followed and the new board commissioned a major strategic review of its operations. 

That review's findings, supposed to be released late last month, appear to have catalysed the decision to call in administrators after talks with lenders failed. 

Sons of Gwalia's chairman, Neil Hamilton, said this week that the review had identified a serious deterioration in the status of the group's gold reserves and resources which raised concerns about the company's ability to meet its hedge book commitments. 

The position in which Sons of Gwalia found itself doesn't appear particularly complicated. It had committed to deliver a net 1.3 million ounces of gold to hedge-book counter-parties but the review had revealed a shortfall in economic reserves of about 500,000 ounces. 

Sons of Gwalia had no way out - its hedge book was about $350 million underwater at June 30 on a mark-to-market basis and a rising Australian dollar gold price was exerting further pressure on the economics of the book.

The group had sold a lot more gold than it could produce. Its fundamental problem wasn't the hedge book or its gold operations but the interaction between the two. 

The issue of how that could have happened is being investigated by the Australian Stock Exchange and the Australian Securities and Investments Commission. 

There appears, however, to be an obvious explanation. The stated reserve estimates and production forecasts were wrong. Whether the miscalculation was deliberate or inadvertent will, obviously, be of consequence. 

Sons of Gwalia had had some production problems in its mines, particularly those acquired from Teck Cominco when it bought PacMin for $160 million in 2001. It had experienced falling grades and rising cash costs after the failure of a pit wall, heavy rains, labour shortages and drilling difficulties. 

But while revising down its profit expectation for 2003-04 to $21 million to $22 million in mid-July, the company had not indicated how parlous its position was. 

That profit warning was the trigger for some of the institutions to exit the register. Most, however, were waiting for the outcome of the strategic review before coming to any conclusions.

In their enthusiasm for the "21st century metal" prospects for tantalum, the professionals, with hindsight, didn't focus enough on the gold operations and hedge book. 

The complexity and the opacity of the hedging wasn't given sufficient emphasis, nor did the investors recognise that the problems within the gold operations might create a question mark over the economics of the resources and therefore over Sons of Gwalia's ability to meet its hedge book commitments. 

They will pay a steep price for their distraction. The administration will crystallise the losses in the hedge book and inevitably exacerbate them. 

There are suggestions that at least two of Sons of Gwalia's three gold operations are considered uneconomic, which in turn suggests the losses for the hedge book counter-parties could be very substantial and virtually guarantees that equity holders won't see any return once the tantalum business is sold and creditors absorb its proceeds.

The fate of Sons of Gwalia and its investors will reinforce the lesson provided by Pasminco's collapse and other hedge-related disasters. 

Even sophisticated institutions will be reluctant to invest in companies with extensive hedging operations, particularly where the strategies are complex. And one suspects that even the investment banks which sit on the other side of the hedges will be more cautious in assessing the quality of the resources that underpin the production commitments and the proportion of production that can be sold forward. 

Sons of Gwalia's strategy left it with no margin for error.


----------



## reece55

*Re: PDN - Paladin Resources*

Well, I'm not sure about the hedging position, but watch out for the financial instruments note if this is the case......

However, the question isn't really how big the hedge is, but what PDN's capability of meeting that hedge........ SGW is a story that every investor should read about, certainly any company has the ability to do the same thing again, although not to the same extent due to the new disclosure for financial instruments (AASB 132 and 139).

Whatever the case, TA is our friend here and T/A says that PDN is a stay away affair at the moment. We are still in that downtrend channel and even though we made a higher high on 20 June, we now have our lowest close since March. The whole U sector is beginning to lose a bit of gleam, so I am on the sidelines at the moment with this one.

Cheers


----------



## Go Nuke

*Re: PDN - Paladin Resources*

Ouch..and so PDN hit the $7.?? range!

No wonder its number 1 on Commsecs most popular "Buys" at the moment.
Though the chart still looks to be decending.
I guess the true test will be at $7.50 range, even if the SS shows its well oversold.

Guess it make me feel better with my own stocks that have fallen of late (especially Uranium) to see even a great like Paladin fall from highs of $10.80

Shame Im cashless


----------



## prawn_86

*Re: PDN - Paladin Resources*

yeh i think a lot of traders are on board, and a lot of margin loans are being closed out. 

still a good long term hold imo


----------



## eMark

*Re: PDN - Paladin Resources*

I have found the last few posts very interesting indeed. A lot of areas to consider regarding PDN (Uranium price, forward sales contracts etc). 

There is a lot of negative sentiment at the moment in the U market, but at least Paladin is a producer, or maybe the focus has switched to the likes of BHP, ZFX & OXR. 

But put simply with PDN now at 7.78, doesn't it look a tad oversold? Or are we still firmly in a downtrend. I mean the current share price is close the big drop of March 07, when the general market correction took hold, albiet the share price recovered very quickly due to positive circumstances at the time.

Trying to remain a believer.


----------



## Dutchy3

*Re: PDN - Paladin Resources*

The BEARS have been trying their best .... just quite able to convince the rest of the players though ... all these sold down weeks this year should have driven the price much lower than it is now ... all the same not ready to be bought yet ... really the first big black week of early March 2007, with volume increase still casts its shadow over trading now


----------



## eMark

*Re: PDN - Paladin Resources*



Dutchy3 said:


> The BEARS have been trying their best .... just quite able to convince the rest of the players though ... all these sold down weeks this year should have driven the price much lower than it is now ... all the same not ready to be bought yet ... really the first big black week of early March 2007, with volume increase still casts its shadow over trading now




So you are saying that the amount of SELLS (Volume) that went through this week, should have forced the price down much lower if were not for the support from this weeks BUYERS? (or lack of..) I'm interested your comment that 'all the same not ready to be bought yet' Why? (It appears obvious why just by looking at your graph, but I would like your opinion)

What should we be looking for re the 'right' time to buy?

Thanks, (nice graph by the way)


----------



## Dutchy3

*Re: PDN - Paladin Resources*



eMark said:


> So you are saying that the amount of SELLS (Volume) that went through this week, should have forced the price down much lower if were not for the support from this weeks BUYERS? I'm interested your comment that 'all the same not ready to be bought yet' Why?
> 
> What should we be looking for re the 'right' time to buy?
> 
> Thanks, (nice graph by the way)




Hi eMark ... not this last week ... the one with the red arrow ... and pretty much yes .... and I don't buy too much until I see BIG WHITE candles with increasing volume .... PDN does not look like a stock in downtrend to me ... It does look like a stock where profits are being ripped out of it though ... subtle difference

All the same there are other stocks out right now that are begging to be bought so PDN will have to perform to attract my capital


----------



## eMark

*Re: PDN - Paladin Resources*



Dutchy3 said:


> Hi eMark ... not this last week ... the one with the red arrow ... and pretty much yes .... and I don't buy too much until I see BIG WHITE candles with increasing volume .... PDN does not look like a stock in downtrend to me ... It does look like a stock where profits are being ripped out of it though ... subtle difference
> 
> All the same there are other stocks out right now that are begging to be bought so PDN will have to perform to attract my capital




Thanks Dutchy. Simple and straight forward reply, very helpful. I was editing my original post to you whilst you were replying, but you answered my questions anyway.

By the way, which graph software do you use (re your image)

Also what do you think was behind the last big white candle (lone) a couple of weeks ago, pushing the SP up above $9.00 temporarily, before the SELLERS came in again


----------



## Dutchy3

*Re: PDN - Paladin Resources*



eMark said:


> Thanks Dutchy. Simple and straight forward reply, very helpful. I was editing my original post to you whilst you were replying, but you answered my questions anyway.
> 
> By the way, which graph software do you use (re your image)
> 
> Also what do you think was behind the last big white candle (lone) a couple of weeks ago, pushing the SP up above $9.00 temporarily, before the SELLERS came in again




Hi eMark .... I use Metastock 10 on a brand new PC and 22 inch screen ... just have it all up and running. By the way the screen size does matter!!! Its quite amazing to view charts in landscape as I do now and can recommend getting the biggest anyone can run.

I've attached a daily for the period in question ... here's how I read it. 

PDN found support at 8.40 (the Blue line) for a couple of weeks ... then that black day occured on relatively heavy volume (red arrow and bear) ... now here's the rub. The black day was a bit of a flushing. After all 8.40 was support so a few final sellers pushed it down in a fit of madness, apparently. The stock stops at 8.00 (OMG surley this is oversold and now a bargain!!!) so a few now rush in to pick it up. Remember human kind does everything to extreames ... greed is one such discriptor and that's what we saw with the white week (blue oval). Runs back up to 9.20, no real volume increase, no real guts.

Guess what .... the over all market still wants this thing lower .... hence the close on the week just gone.

While I'm happy this one is not in a downtrend of any great substance ... there are still sellers out there to take the top out of that little weekly rally ... will keep watching as the story unfolds and maybe we can pick a bottom based on close examination of the price / volume action.


----------



## rederob

*Re: PDN - Paladin Resources*

Dutchy
Thanks for some clear charts.
Although I am a long term holder, I agree with you and others that there is a bit more price weakness ahead.

Some earlier posts talk about PDN's hedge.  Yes, it had to hedge to meet banker's terms etc. and at the time it got a fairly good price.
In retrospect, the hedge price looks shallow.
The good news is that PDN's hedge commitment is well below its expected production over the period, which will allow it to deliver a substantial portion to spot in coming years.

The other good news is that PDN has a very, very long uranium pipeline to tap into.  And that's apart from any additional finds on its very prospective tenements, let alone capacity to increase resources as it continues to drill around Langer Heinrich.

Then, of course, PDN's Kayelekera Uranium Project in Malawi is set for commissioning in 15 months.  I don't know what, if any, hedging might need to be in place.  But right now long term contracts for uranium are at $95/lb and rising.

I note that in forums elsewhere there are some posters that regularly "downramp" PDN.  if they are trading, they might do OK.  If they are investing, they will be hard pressed to find a better stock to buy into for the long term.  Nuclear power plants will be hard pressed to source adequate uranium in coming years, and will be relying on Cigar Lake and Olympic Dam to fill a growing void.


----------



## eMark

*Re: PDN - Paladin Resources*



Dutchy3 said:


> Hi eMark .... I use Metastock 10 on a brand new PC and 22 inch screen ... just have it all up and running. By the way the screen size does matter!!! Its quite amazing to view charts in landscape as I do now and can recommend getting the biggest anyone can run.
> 
> I've attached a daily for the period in question ... here's how I read it.
> 
> PDN found support at 8.40 (the Blue line) for a couple of weeks ... then that black day occured on relatively heavy volume (red arrow and bear) ... now here's the rub. The black day was a bit of a flushing. After all 8.40 was support so a few final sellers pushed it down in a fit of madness, apparently. The stock stops at 8.00 (OMG surley this is oversold and now a bargain!!!) so a few now rush in to pick it up. Remember human kind does everything to extreames ... greed is one such discriptor and that's what we saw with the white week (blue oval). Runs back up to 9.20, no real volume increase, no real guts.
> 
> Guess what .... the over all market still wants this thing lower .... hence the close on the week just gone.
> 
> While I'm happy this one is not in a downtrend of any great substance ... there are still sellers out there to take the top out of that little weekly rally ... will keep watching as the story unfolds and maybe we can pick a bottom based on close examination of the price / volume action.




Looks like I might have to look at upgrading my screen.

Well as you said let's see what unfolds next week, as PDN has finished this week roughly where _"OMG surley this is oversold and now a bargain"_ spot of only a few weeks ago.

I should disclose my interest in this stock, as the reason for watching this so closely. I own PDN  stock in the mid to high 8's, and would very much like to see it back up there sometime soon.

Saying that, some education is needed re understanding these charts in more detail. For example I would like to see an opportunity to get out (if needed), and get back in at a lower entry point (if validated)

Much enjoyed this discussion today re PDN.


----------



## Fab

*Re: PDN - Paladin Resources*

Not sure why PDN is falling so hard. I think it is being oversold based on specialist report I read last week. Here is what it says:

Uranium, Paladin 


Our focus is on long duration themes supported by strong industry fundamentals. We believe an investment strategy with a macro top-down view, which is complemented by a micro bottom-up analysis, highlights real investment opportunities and long-term outperformance. This strategy can be even more self-fulfilling if the theme is supported by Government policy and incentives. In this context we believe the resurgence of the global uranium price represents the emergence of new genuine long-term bull market. 

Positive fundamentals

The long term fundamentals of the uranium market remain very strong, with a significant increase in global demand, against a backdrop of future supply shortages, supported by the first synchronised effort by world Governments to reduce global carbon emissions. There is no doubt that global warming is a very major issue for political parties worldwide, seeking to reduce the dependence on fossil fuels and promote the usage of clean energy alternatives. 

The uranium supply

Interestingly, the uranium market is supported by precisely the same supply constraint characteristics as base metals. Decades of low uranium prices (U3 O8) previously discouraged any investment in future primary production. As a result, there are major production constraints and serious delays in the supply response to the increase in global demand.Since 1985 static mine production has resulted in up to 50% of reactor uranium requirements sourced from secondary supply. 

The uranium supply side is unusual in commodity markets considering a large proportion is sourced from secondary sources and stockpiles. However, both these sources of supply are currently under serious threat.The two main sources of uranium supply have been Western inventories accumulated from the shutdown of reactors, and the Highly Enriched Uranium (HEU) supply form nuclear weapons. However, the security of this supply is problematic with the rundown in Western inventory supplies to critical levels of just 12 months reactor feed. 

In addition, the future HEU supply from nuclear weapons is also in doubt with the Russian government recently announcing that it would not continue the "Megatons to Megawatts" programme when it expires in 2013.This program has been the major source of secondary supply and its imminent closure has serious ramifications for Western World supply. It is worth noting that in 2006, according to World Nuclear Association (WNA) figures, the deficit between mine supply of 39,655kt, and global demand was a massive 40%.In other words, last year secondary supply totalled 22,981kt.To put this in context, Cameco is the world's largest producer with production of 8,039kt last year. There is a critical and structural uranium supply deficit, which is expected to deteriorate significantly unless new supply is commissioned. 

No cigar thanks.


----------



## waz

*Re: PDN - Paladin Resources*

PDN has now fallen below 7.50 reaching 7.40, pretty much its lowest point since November last year, and a 30% or so drop since its peak in april/may.

It has now fallen by 60c in two trading sessions.

ERA has gone up 8c today.

I cant really see any fundamental reason for it to go this low.


----------



## Fab

*Re: PDN - Paladin Resources*

Continuation...

However, the mine supply response has recently suffered a huge blow with the flooding of the massive Cigar Lake project in Canada. The reserve estimate of 100kt was expected to support initial production of 2kt pa in 2008 before ramping up the full production of 8kt pa in 2010. The problems at Cigar Lake are expected to delay first production until 2009 at the earliest. Elsewhere there is some new supply expected to be commissioned before 2010 ex Cigar Lake, but the majority is expected to come form Kazakhstan. Yes, uranium is Kazakhstan's second best export after Borat. However, Kazakhstan is suffering massive skilled labour and infrastructure shortages and new production is expected to suffer serious delays. We believe a meaningful uranium supply response will be delayed until at least 2011. 

The implications of the unexpected delay in the Cigar Lake project cannot be underestimated. Considering there is a 4-5 year lead time to convert uranium to a reactor fuel source, utilities require long dated contracts of at least 5 years for security of supply. Consequently, the massive spike in the uranium spot price is reflecting a significant gap in the supply horizon. Despite the market scepticism, we think the current uranium spot price is very sustainable for at least the next 4-5 years. 

Tight supply

The static nature of global uranium production is highlighted by production figures from the World Nuclear Association (WNA).Global production from 1998 averaged 34,665kt pa, for the 6 years to 2003.New supply resulted in a small increase in production in 2004 and 2005 before falling 5% to 39,655kt last year. This was entirely due to a 20% fall in mine production from ERA's ranger mine. Importantly, the global uranium industry is an oligopoly, so even a small problem with one incumbent producer has a disproportionate impact on global production. We think the uranium market is another perfect commodity storm, with supply disruptions occurring against a backdrop of rising demand and chronically low inventory levels. Sound familiar? I think the playbook has already been written in the base metal markets. 

Reactor requirements.

The major source of uranium demand is for base-load electricity generation. The International Energy Agency (IEA) projects a doubling of world electricity demand by 2030, creating the need for some 4700 GWe of new generating capacity in the next quarter of a century. According to the WNA figures, from 2010 to 2020, Asia comprising mostly China, Japan, India and South Korea, will account for about 36% of the world's new electricity generating capacity, of which nearly 40% will be sourced from nuclear power. In East and South Asia there are currently over 109 nuclear power reactors in operation,18 under construction and plans to build a further 110. 

BRIC demand

Already in some parts of Asia, nuclear power forms a large part of total electricity generation. Currently South Korea and Japan generate 45% and 30% respectively of electricity through nuclear power using roughly 18% of world uranium production. However in China, nuclear power produces just 1.4% of electricity generation, and only 4% in India. Historically China has generated the vast majority of electricity through its enormous coal reserves, however recently China has now become a net importer of coal for the first time. We believe there is potential for China and India to massively increase electricity generation through nuclear power. In a similar scenario to base metals, we believe the BRIC economies will drive a significant increase in nuclear power. 

The WNA reported that in May this year there were 437 operable reactors worldwide supplying about 16% of the global energy requirements. However as we have noted, the current figure is set to change rapidly with the planned additions to nuclear powered electricity generation in Asia from 2010.


----------



## Fab

*Re: PDN - Paladin Resources*

Europe renaissance

However, in Europe the tide appears to have turned full circle in favour of nuclear power in just a few years. Only two reactors had been built in Europe since the Chernobyl disaster. However, recently the UK Government admitted nuclear power was back as an alternative energy source, and in Germany, the Government admitted that closing nuclear plants was ill advised and the country needed a balanced energy mix. 

The turnaround in Europe is for two reasons-the monopoly position of Gazprom as an energy provider to Europe, and the determination by governments world wide, to cut greenhouse gas emissions. The WNA estimates that the total fuel costs of a nuclear power in the OECD are typically about a third of those for a coal-fired plant and between a quarter and a fifth of those for a gas combined-cycle plant. 

Finally it appears that the long held irrational fears of nuclear power are beginning to fade. It is amazing that despite the paranoia there are over 400 reactors currently operating worldwide. 

Nuclear, gas or coal

The economic cost of comparing electricity generation between nuclear, coal and gas is complicated by the capital cost of building a reactor. It varies enormously between countries. In addition it is also complicated by the relative access to fossil fuels, hydro-electric power etc. 

However there are few obvious advantages over fossil fuels. Firstly uranium has the advantage of being a highly concentrated source of energy which easily and cheaply transportable. In addition, the quantities needed are very much less than for coal or oil. One kilogram of natural uranium will yield about 20,000 times as much energy as the same amount of coal. 

Secondly, the contribution of nuclear fuel to the overall cost of electricity produced is relatively small. Therefore even a large uranium price escalation will have relatively little effect on cost. For example a doubling of the uranium price will increase the reactor fuel cost by 26%, but the electricity cost by just 7%.However a doubling of the gas price will typically add 70% to the electricity cost. This will be very significant advantage for nuclear power in a "higher for longer" commodity cycle. 

Thirdly, nuclear power has always been characterised by a combination of higher construction and lower operating costs compared to fossil energy. However, the capital cost of building nuclear generating capacity has fallen significantly over the last few decades. In 2003 the Energy Information Agency (EIA) estimated a starting point of $2083kW for nuclear power electricity generation. However just 4 years later, the new generation Westinghouse reactors are in the range of$1000-1500 per kW. As a result, the WNA estimates that nuclear fuel costs in the US have fallen from 1.28c per kWh in the mid 1980s to only 0.44 cents per kWh today. 

Global warming.

The other huge and long term positive for the economics of nuclear electricity generation is global warming. There is no doubt that greenhouse emissions have become the number one political issue for governments worldwide. In addition, as fossil fuel begins to incur costs through carbon taxes or emission trading schemes, the competitiveness of new nuclear plants clearly improves significantly. his is particularly so with the comparison of coal-fired plants because they are so carbon intensive. 

The increased competitive position of nuclear power under a carbon tax regime is highlighted by a recent study by the Canadian Energy Research Institute (CERI).The study assumes imposing a carbon tax of C$15 per tonne of emitted CO2. The impact is to raise the generating cost of a coal plant by 27% per MWh, which is line in line with nuclear cost in Canada, whereas a gas plant rises by about 8%.It is worth noting that this study assumes a static cost of commodity prices in the future, which is highly unlikely. Clearly the impact of a global missions trading scheme will be huge positive for electricity generation through nuclear power.


----------



## Fab

*Re: PDN - Paladin Resources*

Pricing power

In the light of the supply constraints, and the concentration in the power of the producers, there has been a distinct shift in pricing power from consumers to miners. The result is a change in the nature of contract pricing to a price floor with no caps, and a larger proportion of market linked pricing mechanisms rather than fixed. Currently about 15% of uranium is sourced through the spot market while long term contract price account for 85% of the balance of global supply. In addition, the duration of contracts are changing from 3-5 years to longer dated 10 year contracts as utilities seek security of supply. 

Yellowcake and it eat it too.

The case for a sustained long term bull market for uranium is compelling. There is a structural not cyclical, long term supply deficit of uranium. In addition, any meaningful increase in production is not expected until 2011 and that is only expected to supplement the terminal decline from secondary sources. In addition, global inventories are now virtually non-existent. 

Further, global electricity generation demand is expected to double out to 2030, and the world is committed to lowering greenhouse gas emissions by imposing a carbon tax regime. 

At the same time electricity generation through nuclear power is more cost efficient compared to fossil fuels. This not rocket science it is about electricity generation. Uranium is green, clean, lower cost and a longer term alternative to fossil fuels power generation. 

Analysts are currently factoring in a long term uranium price of approx $US40 -50lb.However just like the dramatic increases in long term oil assumptions we believe consensus forecasts will prove too conservative. We think the long term fundamentals support a uranium price remaining above $US100lb for at least the next decade with the potential for spot price spikes higher than the current level of $US135lb.This has significant implications for current producers to benefit from substantially higher contract prices, while the incumbent uranium remain fixed on legacy contracts of $US25-30lb.In this context Paladin (PDN) as a producer is in a unique position to lock in windfall profits for the next decade. 

Paladin: $5bil market cap and nobody owns it

Paladin is a W.A development and exploration company focused on advanced stage uranium projects. It completed the construction and commissioning of its first mine, Langer Heinrich in Namibia, on time and on budget at the end of last year. PDN commenced production this year. In addition, PDN has the Kayelekera project in Malawi currently under review with the possibility of production by late 2008.Further PDN the potentially very large Valhalla project. Paladin also has several less advanced uranium projects such as Manyingee and Oobagooma projects in W.A. 

Summit (SUM)

In July 2006 management initiated a $174m successful scrip bid for Valhalla Uranium Ltd (VUL).Valhalla's main project is a 50% JV with Summit (SMM) in the Valhalla uranium deposit in Qld. Subsequently Paladin bid for SMM, and after a bitter battle, announced at the close of the offer on June 1, a relevant interest of 81.82%. 

Langer Heinrich

The Langer Heinrich deposit is located 80km east of Walvis Bay, Namibia's major sea port, and 40km south of RIO's Rossing uranium mine. The original company forecast was for production of 1.2kt pa (3.2Mlbs) from a resource of 33kt U3 08. However, this been extended through drilling to 47kt.This has allowed PDN to consider a Stage 2 expansion, which is expected to start in 2009, enabling an increase production to 1,800kt pa. The big upside is the low cost option of increasing production by 50%. 

Due to the mineralization of the deposit, the plant is using an alkaline leach process as opposed to the more common acid leach process. This is the first alkaline leach used in an open cut; however the majority of the In-situ Leach operations have been using alkaline leaching for 20 years. 

In addition, the Langer Heinrich project is a low cost operation with cash costs estimated by the company at approx $US18lb.Considering the current uranium spot prices of $US138lb, and contract prices of $US95lb, this makes the 50% EBITDA margins of the iron-ore companies look very ordinary by comparison. It is important to note that uranium production is a bulk mining exercise but the uranium producers are receiving base metal price premiums. 

The Langer Heinrich deposit remains highly prospective with the ore body open in some areas. Further, PDN has acquired an exploration licence immediately west of the current mining licence. Our current estimate of the mine life is 17 years which includes the Stage 2 project, and assumes a 76% conversion of current resources to reserves. Given the Heinrich mineralisation we think this is reasonably conservative. 

The total capital requirement for the project has been estimated at $US230m over the life of the operation, with Stage 1 already complete. However the economies of scale for the Stage 2 expansion is expected to cost a fraction of Stage 1. 

PDN has a strong balance sheet and remains well funded after the commissioning of Stage 1. At the latest quarterly, the company confirmed a cash position of $US257m. 

Unhedged and fully leveraged.

PDN has already committed 50% of Stage I production to a long term contract at $US60lb with an escalator for price participation above $US80lb.This is well above the legacy contracts for the incumbent producers of $US25-30lb. However the other 50% of production is expected to be sold into the spot market where the current price has risen to $US138lb.In addition, PDN is totally unhedged and fully leveraged for 50% of production to the spot price. Considering PDN recently announced production delays due to operational issues, the subsequent rise in the spot price is big positive. As a result, PDN is in a very advantageous and highly profitable position compared to the global peer group. 

Namibia

In addition the Namibian Govt has recently reduced its royalty on uranium mining from 5% to 2%. This highlights a very important issue for mining companies operating in foreign countries. The Namibia Govt clearly supports, and is keen to encourage, global mining companies to develop Namibia's mineral wealth. By example, RIO has been operating its JV Rossing mine in Namibia, which is only 40km away from Langer Heinrich, for years with minimal Govt intervention. 

FY production on target

Recently PDN has experienced some operational issues at Langer Heinrich that have subsequently been resolved, and the ramp up in production has resumed. As a result, on June 13 the company downgraded the initial June 30 production target of 400,000lb to 270,000lb. 

Our forecasts already included a more conservative 326,000lbs in anticipation of initial plant teething problems. However, management confirmed "that the plant is now quickly reaching the end of the transitional phase and will move into full production forecast production". Importantly PDN has confirmed the previous production target of 2.6mlbs or 1,179kt for FY 08 compared to our FY 08 forecast of 1,134kt. 

Kayelekera

PDN also has the Kayelekera project in Malawi with the possibility of production by late 2008.Malawi while poor, is relatively stable with a democratic country. In fact a person on our trading desk has actually visited Malawi and has returned to confirm the story. Kayelekera has a mine life of approx 13 years and is expected to ramp up to full production of 1,500lbs pa by the end of 2010.The technical risk is viewed as low and considering the mineralisation the more conventional acid leach process is possible. Recently there have been reports that the start up date will be delayed due lack of energy availability and access to the local electricity grid. However PDN has reiterated the original proposal was based on on-site diesel power generation on figures submitted to the Malawi Government. 

Valhalla

We believe Valhalla is the jewel in the crown. Valhalla is an advanced high grade exploration project, near Mt Isa with the promising Skal deposit 10km to the East. The current resource is estimated at 31kt, but we think this will prove very conservative considering the ore body is open on all sides. After an expected start up in 2012, Valhalla is expected to ramp up to full production of 3kt pa, however we think this will be significantly upgraded. In addition it gives PDN access to the Bigrlyi deposit in the NT where the resource has recently been upgraded by 26% to 14.3mlbs or 6400kts. 

PDN originally acquired 50% of Valhalla for $A174m and subsequently bid and acquired SUM, which owned the other 50%.However, in the course of the takeover Areva the world's largest marketer of uranium acquired 10.46% on market at $6.10. 

This was after Areva failed in an attempt to take 9% of SUM at $6.20 in a placement, with an option to take a further 9% at $7.20. 

However, Areva has really endorsed the value of the Valhalla deposit considering the cost of their 10.46% stake was $132m.I am a pretty simple guy but this values Valhalla at $A1.26b compared to PDN's original purchase of $174m for 50%.This has created some serious shareholder value for PDN shareholders. It is worth noting that Areva is the world's largest utility producer of nuclear powered electricity. I think they have a fair idea of the long term value of uranium.


----------



## Fab

*Re: PDN - Paladin Resources*

Radioactive upside

After the Langer Heinrich Stage 2 expansion, full production is expected to be 1,800ktpa by FY 09 and rising to 3250kt with Kayelekera by the FY 2010.On 2006 global production levels, this would place PDN above RIO as the world's 6th largest uranium producer. 

Tradetech the uranium industry body has reported that the spot price recently reached $US138lb and the long term price, which is equivalent to the bottom of the contract price range, has risen by $US10lb to $US95lb.PDN is totally unhedged and has exposure of 50% of production at spot prices. At the current spot price based on the relationship between the share price and the uranium price that has existed for the last few years, PDN is worth between $13-14. 

However the upside case for PDN is highlighted by the sxr Uranium One $US3.1b bid for UrAsia to form a $US5b company with a global footprint of uranium assets. The bid values UrAsia's resources at $US31lb compared to $US16lb for PDN. Applying the same implied EV/lb multiple, PDN is worth $19 per share. 

PDN is a serious company, with some very serious credentials, however it appears that institutional shareholders are viewing PDN with the same scepticism as FMG. We all know attitudes are changing towards FMG and clearly they are about to change towards PDN. There should be no doubt that PDN shares could easily "do a Fortescue". 

If you believe in the long-term growth of the nuclear power industry you should be buying PDN. We see PDN needing a "big brother" to accelerate its growth prospects, and we wouldn't be surprised to see a larger corporate have a tilt at it. Xstrata could be that big brother.


----------



## waz

*Re: PDN - Paladin Resources*

PDN has bounced back to 7.74

damn i knew i should have bought it once it went above 7.50

i wont be surprised if it breaks $8 by the end of the week


----------



## runningrugby

*Re: PDN - Paladin Resources*

Totally Agree with Waz....
Those that 'got on' at 7.40 will be going
to bed tonite, sleeping pretty well!


----------



## reece55

*Re: PDN - Paladin Resources*



runningrugby said:


> Totally Agree with Waz....
> Those that 'got on' at 7.40 will be going
> to bed tonite, sleeping pretty well!




In at 7.52 today..........

That support of 7.40 ish is super strong and once it got down to that level, someone hit the buy button with umph......

Let's see how far this will take us, the fundamental picture is there, now we just need to see some more positive movement and price action. Realistically, I am very surprised it gone down this far.....

Cheers
Reece


----------



## runningrugby

*Re: PDN - Paladin Resources*

i must have got in a little bit after you at 7.54!
i have been waiting for this price for a long time.
i thought i had missed the boat forever..
just about to crack open my third 'crownie'!!


----------



## hacheln_mice

*Re: PDN - Paladin Resources*

I got into this on the break of that intraday flag at 7.64.  However, the intermediate trend is still down.  So no celebrating yet.


----------



## reece55

*Re: PDN - Paladin Resources*



hacheln_mice said:


> I got into this on the break of that intraday flag at 7.64.  However, the intermediate trend is still down.  So no celebrating yet.




Agreed HM, we must always keep that picture in mind.....

However, we could be experiencing a little exhaustion gap happening today, specifically if we get a close on the highs. Would be a pretty bullish day in an otherwise very bearish intermediate chart.....

Cheers


----------



## Fab

*Re: PDN - Paladin Resources*

In at 3.32 on PDNJMD warrant I believe this one will bounce back strongly from now on as it has just bounce back at the bottom of the bollinger band very bullish sign to me. As well as the fundamental have not changed .


----------



## hacheln_mice

*Re: PDN - Paladin Resources*

This is what I'm seeing right now. Target for now is the upper border of downtrending channel.
---------------------------------------------------------------------------------


----------



## eMark

*Re: PDN - Paladin Resources*



Fab said:


> Not sure why PDN is falling so hard. I think it is being oversold based on specialist report I read last week. Here is what it says:




Very interesting article. Would you mind validating your source, and when it was published? Thankyou.


----------



## Fab

*Re: PDN - Paladin Resources*



eMark said:


> Very interesting article. Would you mind validating your source, and when it was published? Thankyou.




I believe it was in the Eureka report this week or last week. Anyway the bottom line is Uranium is far from being dead and my belief is that PDN is a real buy at current level. That is why I bought some more PDNJMD warrants today.


----------



## Sean K

*Re: PDN - Paladin Resources*

Is there some knife catching going on here? Or cunning investing?

Looks dangerous to me. Still the best U play probably, but that market cap has always confounded me. 

Anyone got the latest attempted funnymentals on this? And how's the ramp up in production going? After much bleating by some last year about this being 'on track' to deliver early this year, it didn't quite cut it from what I've read.

Very disappointing that the attempted break up didn't follow through. My hesitation saved me, although a stop would have stemmed the bloodletting. Now, support at 7.50 and 8 ish looks shakey to me. Under 200d ma support now as well....

Good luck longs, and those picking bottoms.


----------



## waz

*Re: PDN - Paladin Resources*

In the first few mins this morning PDN went up to 8.17 and has now fallen below $8 again.

Any takes for how low it will fall today?

This compares to ERA which is up 2.74%


----------



## alankew

*Re: PDN - Paladin Resources*

I called the company last week and the MD returned my phone call last night at 7pm-was pretty amazed by that-especially as i dont actually own any PDN but bought a CFD.He was very bullish about prospects and said that they will have news on Malawi to announce this month which will be positive(wouldnt elaborate)also asked him about the hedging position which has been mentioned earlier in the tread  and said that all was in hand,SMM they are happy with the situation as it is and if they do want the rest of the shares will not pay anywhere near what has previously been offered.My own personal take on current situation is that they have come under fire from a pretty successful short selling campaign-for what purpose i dont know but he did say that institutions have been buyng at these levels.Volume was indeed quite high yesterday and again my own personal feeling is that this is reminiscent of what happened to ZFX and also that at these levels they would have to be considered a target


----------



## eMark

*Re: PDN - Paladin Resources*

PALADIN RESOURCES LTD (PDN.TO) 

At 3:59PM ET: 

*7.45  +0.59 (8.60%)* 

http://finance.yahoo.com/q/bc?s=PDN.TO&t=1d&l=on&z=l&q=c&c=


----------



## alankew

*Re: PDN - Paladin Resources*

Mark any reason for this rise that you knowof-this is not your ordinary rise on the back of a good Wall st thats for certain


----------



## PhoenixXx

*Re: PDN - Paladin Resources*

Within the last 3 days, it has been 2 times the sp slumped to $7.40/$7.65 and instantenously pulled back with a strong rally up to $8-ish mark.
I'm wondering is this a genuine support or merely just a dead cat bounce? my opinion is the latter one though.


----------



## dj_420

*Re: PDN - Paladin Resources*



alankew said:


> Mark any reason for this rise that you knowof-this is not your ordinary rise on the back of a good Wall st thats for certain




i think you will find PDN has been very very very oversold. uranium came right off. although there have been teething problems with commissioning of plant PDN is first new producer in years. all other uranium hopefuls are looking at a long long wait before producing.

PDN should be commissioning second mine in next year or so which will place it in a great position to finally start pulling in some large earnings.

what is the market cap at now? i mean PDN have come off highs by around 30% so they would be quite an attractive target now.


----------



## Sean K

*Re: PDN - Paladin Resources*



dj_420 said:


> i think you will find PDN has been very very very oversold. uranium came right off. although there have been teething problems with commissioning of plant PDN is first new producer in years. all other uranium hopefuls are looking at a long long wait before producing.
> 
> PDN should be commissioning second mine in next year or so which will place it in a great position to finally start pulling in some large earnings.
> 
> what is the market cap at now? i mean PDN have come off highs by around 30% so they would be quite an attractive target now.



I agree, DJ, was probably always going to be issues early, and they have so many other projects in the pipeline, but putting a 'valuation' on them is almost impossible IMO. I thought they were cooked at $5, just because they were half the value of Woolies, or something, and just had debt! Certainly a long term story, but picking bottoms, etc here is dangerous. Just go with trends for the moment I reckon. 

Fundys can attempt to poo poo me with some solid facts and figures if they like. Good luck!


----------



## dj_420

*Re: PDN - Paladin Resources*

PDN possible looking like a reversal. fundamentally we have seen more problems at cigar lake, delaying production by another year to 2011. further delays will place upward pressure on spot price.

technically PDN been in downtrend since SMM takeover. PDN showed false breakout of downtrend last month. sp has found possible bottom around 7.50 mark which was support last spike down and longer term.

would now like to see sp break above 8.25-8.35 mark on volume and see a sustained rise to break downtrend.

might be noted that MACD is converging and looks like crossing


----------



## 56gsa

*Re: PDN - Paladin Resources*

Mkt cap of PDN is just under $5bn which is about where it was before the SMM takeover (when $10 it was $5.2bn).  Thus the current problems with processing ore have negated any upside from control of SMM.  

ABN still has target of $12 but this is based on pre-SMM research (April).  In this they had EPS of 13c for FY08 & 49c for FY09 & 63c for FY10. Presumably this would now have been diluted.

Consensus EPS on aegis for FY08 is now 20c and FY09 is 38c.  There are 3 strong buys, 3 buys, 2 holds and 1 sell on their broker coverage.

I guess PDN is still in between being rated against its cashflow, versus its potential.   If you take its JORC resources of 197mlbs, add SMM's 43mlbs resources, and multiply this by US$22/lb (what PDN paid for SMM), you get a very large number.... US$5.2bn in fact (A$10/sh) ... but SRX's takeover of EMC was even higher (US$30) which gives you US$7.2bn (A$14/sh) ... and Areva takeover of Uramin - not sure what that was at but presume higher cause Uramin was close to production?

Anyway - assuming price of U does not plunge - does this takeover value provide something of a floor for the PDN price - at current prices someone could come in and offer $10 a share for PDN, claim a 25% premium over previous months avge price, and potentially get PDN (a producer) for what PDN got SMM...  seems cheap

but then on cashflows basis people will still mark PDN down on production hiccups and also delays in progress with Kayelekera...

has bounced a couple of times of $7.50 - is that a strong support level now?


----------



## Fab

*Re: PDN - Paladin Resources*



56gsa said:


> Mkt cap of PDN is just under $5bn which is about where it was before the SMM takeover (when $10 it was $5.2bn).  Thus the current problems with processing ore have negated any upside from control of SMM.
> 
> ABN still has target of $12 but this is based on pre-SMM research (April).  In this they had EPS of 13c for FY08 & 49c for FY09 & 63c for FY10. Presumably this would now have been diluted.
> 
> Consensus EPS on aegis for FY08 is now 20c and FY09 is 38c.  There are 3 strong buys, 3 buys, 2 holds and 1 sell on their broker coverage.
> 
> I guess PDN is still in between being rated against its cashflow, versus its potential.   If you take its JORC resources of 197mlbs, add SMM's 43mlbs resources, and multiply this by US$22/lb (what PDN paid for SMM), you get a very large number.... US$5.2bn in fact (A$10/sh) ... but SRX's takeover of EMC was even higher (US$30) which gives you US$7.2bn (A$14/sh) ... and Areva takeover of Uramin - not sure what that was at but presume higher cause Uramin was close to production?
> 
> Anyway - assuming price of U does not plunge - does this takeover value provide something of a floor for the PDN price - at current prices someone could come in and offer $10 a share for PDN, claim a 25% premium over previous months avge price, and potentially get PDN (a producer) for what PDN got SMM...  seems cheap
> 
> but then on cashflows basis people will still mark PDN down on production hiccups and also delays in progress with Kayelekera...
> 
> has bounced a couple of times of $7.50 - is that a strong support level now?




I personally think PDN is a very strong buy based on the analysis I posted few days ago. I bought some more warrants around $7.50 a couple of days ago.
The Uranium story is here to stay as per shown by the news today that BHP is trying to get the government to let them sell some to China. I believe a producer like PDN is a gold mine in the current market and even though the P/E looks expensive it is probably because this industry is not as well known as others. In a different sector SEK has an expensive P/E but keeps rising too


----------



## 56gsa

*Re: PDN - Paladin Resources*

yes thanks for that post fab - interesting read - looks like your warrant are doing well atm.  I see BHP is now talking 2013 for its Olympic Dam upgrade to be on line and has created a separate unit to manage this including its uranium portfolio ...


----------



## Fab

*Re: PDN - Paladin Resources*



56gsa said:


> yes thanks for that post fab - interesting read - looks like your warrant are doing well atm.  I see BHP is now talking 2013 for its Olympic Dam upgrade to be on line and has created a separate unit to manage this including its uranium portfolio ...




Indeed what more do we need to understand that company like PDN are gold mine. First PDN is one of the only new producer, BHP and RIO are moving strongly towards developping Uranium. Coming from Europe the question is not whether or note to use nuclear power it is to what extend and how much Uranium they can get hold of bearing in mind they believe there will be a shortage for a long time. So in that environment PDN produces in a very U friendly environment in Africa. Its share price has dropped by over 30% from its high.

Regarding my warrants indeed they are doing very nicely today, I am hoping PDN will be back to above $10 soon therefore allowing me to double my money on this warrant. As you can see I am bullish regarding this stock in particular.


----------



## Fab

*Re: PDN - Paladin Resources*



Fab said:


> Indeed what more do we need to understand that company like PDN are gold mine. First PDN is one of the only new producer, BHP and RIO are moving strongly towards developping Uranium. Coming from Europe the question is not whether or note to use nuclear power it is to what extend and how much Uranium they can get hold of bearing in mind they believe there will be a shortage for a long time. So in that environment PDN produces in a very U friendly environment in Africa. It share price has dropped by over 30% from its high.
> 
> Regarding my warrants indeed they are doing very nicely today, I am hoping PDN will be back to above $10 soon therefore allowing to double my money on this warrant. As you can see I am bullish regarding this stock in particular .




I forgot to mention that PDN went up 8.60% on the TSX overnight. Very good sign to me that $7.50 is a strong resistance


----------



## shag

*Re: PDN - Paladin Resources*



Fab said:


> I personally think PDN is a very strong buy based on the analysis I posted few days ago. I bought some more warrants around $7.50 a couple of days ago.
> The Uranium story is here to stay as per shown by the news today that BHP is trying to get the government to let them sell some to China. I believe a producer like PDN is a gold mine in the current market and even though the P/E looks expensive it is probably because this industry is not as well known as others. In a different sector SEK has an expensive P/E but keeps rising too




any suggestions for warrants mate? i just want a bit of extra leverage(for capital gain or loss if its not so good!). not concerned with interest etc.
cheers


----------



## swhmale

*Re: PDN - Paladin Resources*

early trading on tsx sees paladin up 6.8% to $8.00 canadian, looks like we might be moving at last. thursday's asx trading reflected  TSX wednesday rise, and a similar rise on friday here could see $9.00 breached


----------



## Fab

*Re: PDN - Paladin Resources*



shag said:


> any suggestions for warrants mate? i just want a bit of extra leverage(for capital gain or loss if its not so good!). not concerned with interest etc.
> cheers




pdnjmd is the warrant I bought. PDN up strongly today on the asx indeed tomorrow should be another very positive day on the asx maybe soon back to the $10. Anyway it should be a question of time


----------



## eMark

*Re: PDN - Paladin Resources*

PALADIN RESOURCES LTD (PDN.TO) 

At 3:59PM ET: 

*7.96   +0.51 (6.85%)* 

http://finance.yahoo.com/q/bc?s=PDN.TO&t=1d&l=on&z=m&q=c&c=

not to mention this....

DOW JONES INDUSTRIAL AVERAGE IN (^DJI) 

At 4:04PM ET: 

*13,861.73   +283.86 (2.09%)* 

http://finance.yahoo.com/q/h?s=%5EDJI


----------



## Gurgler

*Re: PDN - Paladin Resources*

Here is PDN's Toronto chart. Two big positive shifts in a row over there. Are we in for a mirror performance? 

The MACD is heading in the right direction, and the downward trend seems to have been broken. Then again, it's Friday!


----------



## Fab

*Re: PDN - Paladin Resources*



Gurgler said:


> Here is PDN's Toronto chart. Two big positive shifts in a row over there. Are we in for a mirror performance?
> 
> The MACD is heading in the right direction, and the downward trend seems to have been broken. Then again, it's Friday!




Here we go PDN up strongly again probably on strong overnight performance on the TSX overnight. As per the article I posted earlier on I believe there is still much more to go. A normal valuation seems to be between $13 -$19. Warrants at the current level sounds to me a very good way of leveraging the upside of PDN


----------



## reece55

*Re: PDN - Paladin Resources*

Regardless of the spin you put on PDN, this one is still in a defined range and I took my profits Friday at 8.60, so a dollar profit for the week.

Range bound until proven guilty I say, should come down on Mon, particularly given the weak close, it was sold down from the open.

Cheers


----------



## rederob

*Re: PDN - Paladin Resources*

reece
It will come down a bit, given its lead from Canada, which shaved a wee bit off Thursday's profit.
This simple chart shows where it's at, short term.


----------



## shag

*Re: PDN - Paladin Resources*



reece55 said:


> Regardless of the spin you put on PDN, this one is still in a defined range and I took my profits Friday at 8.60, so a dollar profit for the week.
> 
> Range bound until proven guilty I say, should come down on Mon, particularly given the weak close, it was sold down from the open.
> 
> Cheers




hope it comes back, been waiting to get in for ages, just held up freeing cash. very painful not being able to hump in when it floundered around 7 dollars.


----------



## Fab

*Re: PDN - Paladin Resources*



shag said:


> hope it comes back, been waiting to get in for ages, just held up freeing cash. very painful not being able to hump in when it floundered around 7 dollars.




I have to say I agree it should come back a bit at opening on monday that does not mean it won't go back up later during the day. PDN needs some good news and then it will jump back. From my experience over the last 2 years this stock moves in waves meaning it spikes and then consolidate. We are in the consolidation phase. How long for? Who knows.


----------



## Lachlan6

*Re: PDN - Paladin Resources*

Agreed (PDN) is looking interesting at the moment. For mine will need to break resistance at around $9.30 before I would consider jumping in. Very positive pattern though with nice divergence in OBV and MACD suggesting $7.50 will certainly be the intermediate low. Crucial for it to eventually break into new highs or it runs the risk of failing and forming a double top.


----------



## hacheln_mice

*Re: PDN - Paladin Resources*

I hopped out at open on Friday as it hit my target on the spot.  

For now, let's not talk about a $13-$19 'normal' valuation when it has barely stayed above $10...


----------



## Fab

*Re: PDN - Paladin Resources*

I am wondering if someone could update us on U spot price over the weekend. I am assuming nothing has changed.


----------



## Sean K

*Re: PDN - Paladin Resources*



Fab said:


> A normal valuation seems to be between $13 -$19.







hacheln_mice said:


> For now, let's not talk about a $13-$19 'normal' valuation when it has barely stayed above $10...





Just where did you get that from Fab? Was it somewhere in the article? Is that a quote from HC?  

Cheers.


----------



## Fab

*Re: PDN - Paladin Resources*

kennas,

Read my posting from last week which is from the Eureka report.
Also I heard that U production is being disrupted in Niger because of Touareq guerilla there. When you know that 1/3 of the french U is coming from there through Areva that might have some impact on the U spot price as well so I am not too sure when


----------



## Gurgler

*Re: PDN - Paladin Resources*



Fab said:


> kennas,
> 
> Read my posting from last week which is from the Eureka report.
> Also I heard that U production is being disrupted in Niger because of Touareq guerilla there. When you know that 1/3 of the french U is coming from there through Areva that might have some impact on the U spot price as well so I am not too sure when




Fab

I can see your reference to Eureka report last week - but no explanation of how the $13-$19 target is reached. Can you *share *that with us?


----------



## Fab

*Re: PDN - Paladin Resources*



Gurgler said:


> Fab
> 
> I can see your reference to Eureka report last week - but no explanation of how the $13-$19 target is reached. Can you *share *that with us?




If you read the all article which was posted in several pieces you will notice the price target. I don't have the article in front of me at the moment.


----------



## shag

*Re: PDN - Paladin Resources*



Fab said:


> If you read the all article which was posted in several pieces you will notice the price target. I don't have the article in front of me at the moment.




Anyone care to help me with a buy-in time for some warrants? I don't know enough at all re chartisim to hedge a guess, and don't expect it to hit the low 700's again unfortunately(where even I know its a good deal).
I'm not after the bottom of the knife edge or anything, just a reasonable time to jump in more.
cheers


----------



## tcoates

*Re: PDN - Paladin Resources*

Some above asked about the reference to the eureka report and pdn. I am not sure whether I can provide a direct link to the article, but if you go to google and enter

"eureka report pdn"

the first item in the results page should be a link to the report in question.

Tim


----------



## Gurgler

*Re: PDN - Paladin Resources*

Thanks, Tim.

A long article, originally published 22 June '07 - but containing the forecasts that Fab was mentioning:

"*Tradetech the uranium industry body has reported that the spot price recently reached $US138lb and the long term price, which is equivalent to the bottom of the contract price range, has risen by $US10lb to $US95lb. PDN is totally unhedged and has exposure of 50% of production at spot prices. At the current spot price based on the relationship between the share price and the uranium price that has existed for the last few years, PDN is worth between $13-14. 

However the upside case for PDN is highlighted by the sxr Uranium One $US3.1b bid for UrAsia to form a $US5b company with a global footprint of uranium assets. The bid values UrAsia’s resources at $US31lb compared to $US16lb for PDN. Applying the same implied EV/lb multiple, PDN is worth $19 per share*." 

(Source: http://www.eurekareport.com.au/iis/iis.nsf/ak/YVQwxY?opendocument)

Not sure about the claim that 'PDN is totally unhedged' - is that true?


----------



## Fab

*Re: PDN - Paladin Resources*



Gurgler said:


> Thanks, Tim.
> 
> A long article, originally published 22 June '07 - but containing the forecasts that Fab was mentioning:
> 
> "*Tradetech the uranium industry body has reported that the spot price recently reached $US138lb and the long term price, which is equivalent to the bottom of the contract price range, has risen by $US10lb to $US95lb. PDN is totally unhedged and has exposure of 50% of production at spot prices. At the current spot price based on the relationship between the share price and the uranium price that has existed for the last few years, PDN is worth between $13-14.
> 
> However the upside case for PDN is highlighted by the sxr Uranium One $US3.1b bid for UrAsia to form a $US5b company with a global footprint of uranium assets. The bid values UrAsia’s resources at $US31lb compared to $US16lb for PDN. Applying the same implied EV/lb multiple, PDN is worth $19 per share*."
> 
> (Source: http://www.eurekareport.com.au/iis/iis.nsf/ak/YVQwxY?opendocument)
> 
> Not sure about the claim that 'PDN is totally unhedged' - is that true?




Note that I have reading the Eureka report for 1 year now and they have very often been very good at picking trend and stocks. Like for example BHP and RIO that have kept on saying that they would go up and up and up.

This statement is of interest to if you believe in PDN:
"There should be no doubt that PDN shares could easily “do a Fortescue”. 
So if you like me you believe this one will be a big winner in the mid term the jitters happening at the moment are only buying opportunities


----------



## Yeti

*Re: PDN - Paladin Resources*



Gurgler said:


> Not sure about the claim that 'PDN is totally unhedged' - is that true?




Not according to this:

From page three of PDN's March 2007 Quarterly Financial Report and MD&A:-

It is in this context that the significance of Paladin's production readiness should be examined.
Paladin has term sales contracts to US utilities for approximately 7.5Mlbs U3O8 for delivery between
2007 to 2012. These contracts were required to meet bankers’ conditions for its Langer Heinrich
Project loan.


----------



## Sean K

*Re: PDN - Paladin Resources*

Well, this should give it some support:

SYDNEY (Dow Jones)--At least one London-based fund manager who holds shares in Austarlian uranium miner Paladin Resources Ltd. (PDN.AU) has been formally approached by parties linked to Cameco Corp. (CCJ) of Canada, The Australian Financial Review reports Tuesday. 

Without citing sources, the newspaper said the approach comes amid speculation Cameco is looking closely at Paladin and could be preparing a takeover bid for the company.


----------



## 56gsa

*Re: PDN - Paladin Resources*



Yeti said:


> Not according to this:
> 
> From page three of PDN's March 2007 Quarterly Financial Report and MD&A:-
> 
> It is in this context that the significance of Paladin's production readiness should be examined.
> Paladin has term sales contracts to US utilities for approximately 7.5Mlbs U3O8 for delivery between
> 2007 to 2012. These contracts were required to meet bankers’ conditions for its Langer Heinrich
> Project loan.




From memory I think these sales were at US$60 / lb and represent about 50% of production over the next couple of years (perhaps more if they fail to meet their production targets)... 

PDN down 1.5% on TSX overnight but Cameco interest as K mentioned should keep things bouyant...


----------



## Fab

*Re: PDN - Paladin Resources*



56gsa said:


> From memory I think these sales were at US$60 / lb and represent about 50% of production over the next couple of years (perhaps more if they fail to meet their production targets)...
> 
> PDN down 1.5% on TSX overnight but Cameco interest as K mentioned should keep things bouyant...




That explains the current 5% jump in good volume. That is exactly what PDN needed to put a rocket under it share price


----------



## eMark

*Re: PDN - Paladin Resources*

I guess some of you have seen the recent announcement. PDN's management are denying any takeover rumours. That shot the SP down again. I for one seem to have been caught in the crossfire...

But where there's smoke, there's fire? Any comments


----------



## dj_420

*Re: PDN - Paladin Resources*



eMark said:


> I guess some of you have seen the recent announcement. PDN's management are denying any takeover rumours. That shot the SP down again. I for one seem to have been caught in the crossfire...
> 
> But where there's smoke, there's fire? Any comments




well cameco seem to be fishing for a position in PDN prior to a takeover attempt. thats the way i read it.

this would mean that if a takeover went to an acceptance vote then cameco have the swing or advantage in already holding a position.


----------



## eMark

*Re: PDN - Paladin Resources*

Not a bad finish to the day considering the drop in the SP after the 'emphatic denial' announcement from PDN earlier in the day. Dropping from 8.88 to 8.34 before recovering to 8.52 on close, says to me there may be something in the 'speculation rumours'. The following article is probably now considered old, but I can't be sure if it was published before or after PDN's announcement of 'I know nothing...'

A good read anyway.

*Cameco may bid for Australian miner Paladin-paper
Mon Jul 16, 2007 6:20PM EDT

SYDNEY, July 17 (Reuters) - Cameco Corp. (CCO.TO: Quote, Profile, Research), the world's No. 1 uranium supplier, may be preparing a takeover bid for Australian uranium miner Paladin Resources Ltd. (PDN.AX: Quote, Profile, Research) to boost its sources of supply, the Australian Financial Review said on Tuesday. Citing no sources, the paper said it understood at least one fund manager had been approached by parties representing Canada-based Cameco. It said Paladin was aware of the takeover speculation but had declined to comment.

The speculation comes as Cameco's overhaul of its flooded Cigar Lake uranium mine in Canada is set to take months longer than it previously expected, potentially delaying production to 2011.

The mine, which sits on one of the world's richest uranium deposits, flooded last year, putting additional pressure on global uranium supply as demand has soared.

The paper said a drop in Paladin's share price has made it a possible takeover target. The Australian company cut its production forecast for its main Namibian mine last month.

Paladin acquired fellow Australian uranium miner Summit Resources Ltd. (SMM.AX: Quote, Profile, Research) in April.*

http://www.reuters.com/article/topNews/idUKSYD2187620070716?rpc=44&sp=true


----------



## Fab

*Re: PDN - Paladin Resources*



dj_420 said:


> well cameco seem to be fishing for a position in PDN prior to a takeover attempt. thats the way i read it.
> 
> this would mean that if a takeover went to an acceptance vote then cameco have the swing or advantage in already holding a position.




This type of rumours are often denied in order to get a better deal but are rarely unfounded. PDN is the ideal target in the U sector. Price went south recently and they are a producer.


----------



## philby3

*Re: PDN - Paladin Resources*

a couple of large orders went through after close today

17-07-2007 05:04 PM $8.610 159141 $1,370,204.010 Portfolio Special Crossing,Crossed 

17-07-2007 04:38 PM $8.280 258161 $2,137,573.080 Portfolio Special Crossing,Crossed 

Mean anything?


----------



## Fab

*Re: PDN - Paladin Resources*



philby3 said:


> a couple of large orders went through after close today
> 
> 17-07-2007 05:04 PM $8.610 159141 $1,370,204.010 Portfolio Special Crossing,Crossed
> 
> 17-07-2007 04:38 PM $8.280 258161 $2,137,573.080 Portfolio Special Crossing,Crossed
> 
> Mean anything?



Can anyone explain me how an order can go through after close of trade.
I personally believe the explanation is that there is some truth in the takeover speculation and this will be happening sooner or later.


----------



## eMark

*Re: PDN - Paladin Resources*

PDN. TO. How do you think the stock will fare tonight in light of PDN's denial of a takeover? Last night it appeared to react positively jumping from 7.25 to 7.71 after spending most of the earlier session falling. News must have filtered through for PDN. TSX around that time, when the SP turned around. But tonight....in light of the denial? It would appear that it will knocked about a bit? Hope it finds support from somewhere.


----------



## Fab

*Re: PDN - Paladin Resources*



eMark said:


> PDN. TO. How do you think the stock will fare tonight in light of PDN's denial of a takeover? Last night it appeared to react positively jumping from 7.25 to 7.71 after spending most of the earlier session falling. News must have filtered through for PDN. TSX around that time, when the SP turned around. But tonight....in light of the denial? It would appear that it will knocked about a bit? Hope it finds support from somewhere.




The denial from PDN indeed knocked the share down a bit. Actually I believe this is a great opportunity to pick up some more PDN at what I believe is a bargain price before a takeover offer happens. Cameco has been mentioned but Xstrata or Areva are also company that might be interested in buying PDN specially at the current price.
Personally I have place an other order today to buy some more warrants as I believe it is just a question of time before takeover happens on PDN


----------



## 56gsa

*Re: PDN - Paladin Resources*

down 3% on the TSX overnight but this in todays Australian...  be nice sitting on 9 million shares in PDN!



> Paladin's African troubles ease
> Kevin Andrusiak | July 18, 2007
> 
> ANALYSTS have upgraded their forecast for Paladin Resources' 2006-07 financial year to a loss of $31.5 million, as teething problems and shipping delays at the company's African operations are largely resolved.
> 
> Southern Cross Equities has elevated the stock to a "buy" recommendation on the back of continued strength in the uranium market and the successful $1 billion acquisition of Summit Resources.
> 
> The broker added that the Valhalla project, which it now controls virtually outright after initially having a 50 per cent stake prior to the Summit bid, would become a "cornerstone" growth project for Paladin.
> 
> "With the share price retreating in recent months, value is now emerging in Paladin," Southern Cross analysts said in a note to clients.
> 
> "While on a price to EBITDA ratio, Paladin compares well with its global peers.
> 
> "Our target price of $10 a share is a premium of 1.5 times the 12 month net present value of $6.57. We use a premium as Paladin is one of the few largely unhedged producers in the robust uranium market, which should give it the opportunity to grow rapidly, either organically or through acquisition."
> 
> Southern Cross has also upgraded its short-term spot uranium price from $US95 a pound to $US125/pound against a current spot price of $US129/pound.
> 
> Paladin's share price high of $10.70 was reached on April 10 from where it retreated to a low of $7.78 as it struggled with teething problems at its Langer Heinrich mine in Namibia.
> 
> Meanwhile, Paladin has dismissed rumours it has recently become a takeover target for uranium heavyweight Cameco.
> 
> "The company can emphatically state that Cameco has not approached Paladin in this regard," company managing director John Borshoff said in a statement to the Australian Securities Exchange.
> 
> Paladin's share register is very open with no one entity controlling more than 4.4 per cent of the available stock.
> 
> According to Bloomberg, Mr Borshoff has a 3 per cent stake in the company while chairman Rick Crabb owns about 8.97 million shares, or 1.5 per cent.
> 
> Paladin shares gained 24c to $8.52.


----------



## Fab

*Re: PDN - Paladin Resources*



56gsa said:


> down 3% on the TSX overnight but this in todays Australian...  be nice sitting on 9 million shares in PDN!




That confirms the bullish view that I have got nevertheless there seems to be pressure on the downside that I don't understand completely at the moment. Can anyone try to explain ?


----------



## champ2003

*Re: PDN - Paladin Resources*

Kayerekera gets the go ahead to mine by the IAEA so hopefully we will see a further rise in the coming days to greater heights.


----------



## eMark

*Re: PDN - Paladin Resources*

Interesting occurence last night which I don't think happens very often. The DOW closes down 150 points, and PDN.TO closes up 5c, to 7.74. At one point up 14c to 7.83 (and that was in the last 10 minutes) before retracting to 7.74. There seemed to be some solid support for PDN.TO last night in my opinion.

Usually if the DOW tanks, PDN freefalls. But not last night, it went up. I'm not sure what this will mean for PDN. AX on Monday, but it's got to lend it some support. 

Also Gold was strong, as well as the base metals.


----------



## Sean K

*Re: PDN - Paladin Resources*



eMark said:


> Interesting occurence last night which I don't think happens very often. The DOW closes down 150 points, and PDN.TO closes up 5c, to 7.74. At one point up 14c to 7.83 (and that was in the last 10 minutes) before retracting to 7.74. There seemed to be some solid support for PDN.TO last night in my opinion.
> 
> Usually if the DOW tanks, PDN freefalls. But not last night, it went up. I'm not sure what this will mean for PDN. AX on Monday, but it's got to lend it some support.
> 
> Also Gold was strong, as well as the base metals.



I'm not sure if there's too much to read into a one off occurrence. Perhaps if this occurred a few times recently then you could make some conclusions. From what I've read on PDN there seems to be more bull than bear longer term on PDN. Here is an article from FN Arena which gives some differing, but overall more bullish, views:



> Support For Paladin
> FN Arena News - July 19 2007
> 
> By Rudi Filapek-Vandyck
> 
> Equity strategists at UBS made no secret of the fact they have been searching the Australian share market for laggards to add to their model portfolio. For what it’s worth, the broker remains a firm believer in strong global economic growth in the year ahead, albeit with the potential for the US to disappoint. Bond yields should remain contained in the six months ahead.
> 
> UBS sees value in Australian banks, selected infrastructure stocks (see bond yields above), and selected long-duration growth stocks. Add resources to this list as the strategists believe the market has not reached the hype stage yet. As they expect this to happen at some time the sector should offer more upside still.
> 
> Investors in the uranium sector may be heartened by the fact that the broker has added Paladin Resources (PDN) to its model portfolio. Paladin is currently the broker’s most preferred resources stock in the Australian share market showing a firm belief in further upside for uranium prices as well as management’s ability to bring the Kayelekera project on line.
> 
> UBS currently has a $11 target for the shares and that is, to our knowledge, only beaten by the $12.10 target ABN Amro placed on the stock in April this year. The average target price in the FNArena database is $10.60, well above current share price levels of $8-something.
> 
> GSJB Were has maintained Paladin as a Sell on its Conviction List. The broker did remove Rio Tinto (RIO) as a Conviction Buy from the list after the proposed takeover of aluminium producer Alcan had been announced.
> 
> However, UBS’s positive view on Paladin’s share price prospects received support from resources analysts at Royal Bank of Canada (RBC) this week with RBC arguing Paladin remains the best exposure to uranium in Australia. RBC is less enthusiastic about Energy Resources of Australia (ERA), predominantly because of the latter’s legacy contracts.
> 
> In breaking news for the uranium market, the US Department of Energy (DOE) has announced it will be soliciting proposals to sell eight lots of Natural Uranium Hexafluoride (UF6) – up to 200 metric tons (MTU) by August 17th.
> 
> Stockinterview.com reports the amount being offered for sale, in terms of U3O8 equivalent, represents less than 520 thousand pounds. However, the DOE’s decision comes at a time when the uranium market is in seemingly oversupply which has caused the weekly spot price to decline in each of the past three weeks.


----------



## drmb

*Re: PDN - Paladin Resources*



eMark said:


> Interesting occurence last night which I don't think happens very often. The DOW closes down 150 points, and PDN.TO closes up 5c, to 7.74. At one point up 14c to 7.83 (and that was in the last 10 minutes) before retracting to 7.74. There seemed to be some solid support for PDN.TO last night in my opinion. Usually if the DOW tanks, PDN freefalls. But not last night, it went up. I'm not sure what this will mean for PDN. AX on Monday, but it's got to lend it some support. Also Gold was strong, as well as the base metals.



May have something do with Cameco's continuing run of setbacks - 3 in <2 weeks - see below.

Cameco announces third piece of bad news in less than two weeks with plant leak July 20, 2007 - 19:08 By: KRISTINE OWRAM  TORONTO (CP) - Uranium producer Cameco Corp. (TSX:CCO) has suspended operations at its Port Hope, Ont., processing plant after uranium and chemicals were found in soil at the facility - the third piece of bad news for the Saskatoon-based company in less than two weeks. On July 11, Cameco, which is the world's biggest uranium producer, announced that it will take more time than expected to stop a flood at its new Cigar Lake project and then pump out the water. This will delay the planned production startup of the northern Saskatchewan uranium mine until 2011 instead of late 2010. Then, on Thursday, Cameco reported that Toronto-based subsidiary Centerra Gold Inc. (TSX:CG) has lowered its 2007 gold production estimates for the Kumtor mine in the former Soviet republic of Kyrgyzstan by one-third of the previous level.

Friday's announcement, that the Port Hope processing plant will be temporarily shut down while cleanup and testing is done at the site, adds another degree of uncertainty for Cameco shareholders.

Jul 20, 2007 06:13 PM Canadian Press SASKATOON – Uranium producer Cameco Corp. (TSX: CCO) has suspended operations at a processing plant in Port Hope, Ont., after uranium and chemicals were found in soil at the facility. ... Cameco says it discovered the contamination when it was excavating within the building for the installation of new equipment. The plant handles uranium hexafluoride, a chemical form of uranium used during its enrichment process. The company says it will be shut down for at least two months but no layoffs are planned. Further investigation and environmental testing is ongoing at the site.

Cameco closes Ontario plant after uranium found in soil Murray Lyons, CanWest News Service Published: Friday, July 20, 2007 SASKATOON ”” Uranium mining and processing giant Cameco Corp. said Friday it had shut down its Port Hope conversion facility in Ontario after discovering uranium in the soil near the plant. If the U-processing plant is closed for 2 months (maybe more if soil remediation is needed) then this puts a U producer such as PDN in the box seat, imho!!! DYOR of course

The company first discovered the uranium on July 13 and made the decision to shut the facility down while the company and third-party consultants try to figure out how the uranium got into the soil and how to contain it.

In an interview Friday, Cameco spokesperson Lyle Krahn said the decision to shut down the Port Hope conversion facility was made by the company and not the Canadian Nuclear Safety Commission.

“The decision to suspend production initially and the decision to suspend production for a minimum of two months ... were both at our initiative and not the regulator,” Krahn said. “We continue to keep them (commission officials) informed and they are requesting information and monitoring the situation as we move along.”


----------



## drmb

*Re: PDN - Paladin Resources*

Hmmmm...posting to myself?! Oh well, price sensitive ann out 3.21pm 24 July 07- 
Summit Resources Limited (“Summit”) (aka 90%PDN) is pleased to advise the following update on its uranium projects in the Mt Isa region in the North-West of Queensland. The projects that are 100% owned by Summit combined with the areas under the Isa Uranium Joint Venture represent the third largest uranium province in Australia, with the parties involved working to fast track development. The forthcoming program will have a clear focus on resource definition and expansion in the key target areas with upgraded preliminary metallurgical scoping work and the commencement of indicative base line environmental data.
PROGRAM OUTLINE
Isa Uranium Joint Venture – Summit (50%) / Paladin (50%)
Summit and Paladin share a 50% interest each in the Valhalla and Skal ore bodies through the Isa Uranium Joint Venture. The Isa Uranium JV (comprising a 50% shareholding of Summit and 50% held by Paladin – through Valhalla Uranium Ltd) recently had the first meeting of its operating committee. Paladin is also a major 82% shareholder of Summit. Summit is the manager of the Joint Venture and is pleased to advise that the operating committee has approved a budget of $8,000,000 for the financial year 2007/08 (being a 320% increase over the previous year’s expenditure). This amount includes a proposed drilling program (see below), metallurgical test work, and environmental and radiation baseline studies.
Drilling at the Valhalla and Skal deposits
The budget approval covers an extensive drilling program at both the Valhalla and Skal deposits - with the aim of both extending the existing resource envelopes along strike and improving the current resource classification. The proposed plan includes 147 drill holes at Valhalla for a total of 49,620m. Of this 33,030m will be RC and the remaining 16,230m Diamond drilling. The program is aimed at ensuring that the majority of the top 400m of the resource will fall into the Measured and Indicated Resource categories. This depth has been targeted as it is expected to be the current underground is not seen as a priority at this time.
A number of 80m spaced drill lines have been planned to test the expected strike extension of the mineralisation and add to the Inferred portion of the resource. Radiometric down-hole logging will be used to check all drill holes in conjunction with geochemical assaying of selected drill holes for verification purposes. The aim of this is to accelerate the collection of data and aid in refining the drilling plan. Approximately 28 drill holes for 5000m are planned to test the Skal North and King George mineralised areas with the intention of converting current historic resources to JORC standards. The program is also aimed at extending and infilling the area between Skal North and King George. Historic information has recently been sourced indicating the potential for additional mineralisation at King George. This is going to be followed up.
Mt Isa Uranium – Summit (100%)
A further $2,000,000 has been earmarked for Summit’s other uranium projects. Work on these prospects will include additional resource drilling at Mirrioola and exploratory holes at other prospects. Other work will include mapping, ground radiometrics and evaluation of previous data. This does not include expenditure under the Georgina Basin Joint Venture, which is yet to be determined and will be funded by Newland Resources Ltd if it elects to remain in the joint venture.
CORPORATE
Bid by Paladin Resources Ltd
On 1 June 2007, Paladin Resources Ltd (“Paladin”) announced the closure of its takeover bid for all of the fully paid ordinary shares in Summit, in which it now holds 81.82% of the issued shares. Summit welcomes Paladin as a major shareholder and considers the investment by Paladin to be fortuitous, given the stage of development of Summit’s major projects.
Paladin will contribute substantially to the expertise necessary to develop a uranium project and brings with it a depth of experience in:
 uranium geology, exploration and geophysical review;
 resource evaluation;
 metallurgical technical and functional experience across a range of uranium processing operations;
 feasibility development and review;
 land management;
 environmental assessment;
 radiation management;
 production development; and
 marketing
The benefit of this experience would not otherwise be available to Summit. Paladin also has significant financial capability and experience in debt and equity funding, which will be crucial for Summit’s funding requirements if it is to proceed to the production phase.


----------



## eMark

*Re: PDN - Paladin Resources*



drmb said:


> Hmmmm...posting to myself?! Oh well, price sensitive ann out 3.21pm 24 July 07-




Nahh! I just think there's not a lot to post about at times with this stock.

Well yesterday PDN held it's ground, after the DOW 150pt loss, giving up only 2c. But today it loses 31c after the DOW gains 92 pts. Go figure. I'm not saying the two are linked, far from it. It's just interesting.

What I did notice though is that CCO.TO lost well over $3.00 last night, due to a run of bad announcements. But again PDN.TO lost only 2c. Still doesn't explain todays PDN.AX weakness. 

Just playing the waiting game...


----------



## philby3

*Re: PDN - Paladin Resources*

For a fund who will be specialising in investing in u stocks, it's interesting to see their investment spread (detailed in the list at the bottom).


Uranium Focused Energy Fund - Rights offering (TSX: UF.UN) 
    EXPIRES AUGUST 29, 2007

    TORONTO, July 23 /CNW/ - Middlefield Group, on behalf of Uranium Focused
Energy Fund, is pleased to announce that it has filed a final prospectus in
connection with an offering of Rights to its unitholders to subscribe for
Units. Unitholders of record at the close of business (Toronto time) on
July 31, 2007 will receive one Right for each Uranium Unit held on the record
date. Three Rights will entitle the holder to purchase one Fund Unit at a
price of $9.30 until 4:00 p.m. (Toronto Time) on August 29, 2007, at which
time all unexercised Rights will expire. If all the Rights are exercised, the
Fund will issue approximately seven million Units and receive net proceeds of
approximately $64 million.
    Each holder of Rights who subscribes for all of the Units to which that
holder is entitled under the Basic Subscription Privilege may subscribe for
any number of additional Units at a price equal to the subscription price for
each additional Unit, subject to availability. Units issued pursuant to this
rights offering will participate in the September 2007 distribution. The
directors and officers of the Manager intend to exercise all their Rights to
acquire Units under the Basic Subscription Privilege.
    Uranium Focused Energy Fund is a TSX-listed fund focused predominantly on
the securities of issuers that operate in or have exposure to the uranium
sector, supplemented with securities of other energy related issuers. The Fund
has been designed to capitalize on the view of the Advisor, Middlefield
Capital Corporation, that the uranium sector will continue to provide
attractive opportunities for investment over the next several years. The
strong fundamentals underlying the uranium industry include rising demand for
nuclear power on the back of concerns over carbon emissions from coal-based
power generation as well as the high cost of alternative fuels like natural
gas.
    Middlefield Capital Corporation is a specialty investment manager with
over $4.0 billion in assets under management. Since its inception in 1979,
Middlefield has established a strong reputation as a creator and manager of
unique investment products designed to balance risk and return to meet the
demanding requirements of investment advisors and their clients. Middlefield
has developed particular expertise in the oil and gas, mining and uranium
sectors.
    Global Fuel Solutions, an independent uranium industry consultant based
in Los Altos, California, has been engaged to provide Middlefield with
analysis and opinion regarding uranium market supply-demand fundamentals and
associated pricing implications.
    The net asset value of the Fund at the close of business on July 19, 2007
was $9.26. The Fund trades on the Toronto Stock Exchange under the symbol
UF.UN.


    <<
    -------------------------------------------------------------------------
    TOP 25 HOLDINGS REPRESENTING APPROXIMATELY 80% OF TOTAL ASSETS OF OVER
    $ 210 MILLION

    (AS AT JULY 19, 2007 - IN ORDER OF LARGEST TO SMALLEST HOLDING)

    1.  Paladin Resources Ltd.       10. Major Drilling Group International
                                         Inc.
    2.  Cameco Corporation           11. Ur-Energy Inc.
    3.  Denison Mines Corp.          12. Areva CI
    4.  BHP Billiton Ltd.            13. Uranerz Energy Corporation
    5.  Rio Tinto plc                14. Energy Resources of Australia Ltd.
    6.  Uranium One Inc.             15. Shaw Group Inc.
    7.  UEX Corporation              16. Energy Fuels Inc.
    8.  First Uranium Corporation    17. Aurora Energy Resources Inc.
    9.  Uranium Participation Corp.  18. General Electric Company

    19. Energy Metals Corporation
    20. Laramide Resources Ltd.
    21. Husky Energy Inc.
    22. Mega Uranium Ltd.
    23. Canadian Oil Sands Trust
    24. Fronteer Development Group Inc.
    25. Suncor Energy Inc.


----------



## Fab

*Re: PDN - Paladin Resources*

News coming from PDN appear good nevertheless PDN seems to have some problems resuming its upward trend. My guess is that it is temporary. $8 appears to be a strong resistance point and if that breaks $7.50 is even stronger so I am guessing that PDN will bounce back on one of these 2 resistance points. Also a takeover is possible at this price.


----------



## Fab

*Re: PDN - Paladin Resources*

Here is why PDN is a big big buy.

Uranium

In this context we believe the uranium industry is both strategic, and on the verge of global consolidation. Xstrata has already confirmed that uranium is a strategic commodity target and there is no doubt that this view was a major consideration in the failed bid for Western Mining. In addition CVRD has recently farmed into two uranium exploration assets in W.A. The long term fundamentals of the uranium market remain very strong, with a significant increase in global demand, against a backdrop of future supply shortages, supported by the first synchronised effort by world Government's to reduce global carbon emissions.

Supply constraints

Interestingly, the uranium market is supported by precisely the same supply characteristics as base metals. There are major production constraints and serious delays in the supply response against a significant increase in global demand. Since 1985 static mine production has resulted in up to 50% of reactor uranium requirements sourced from secondary supply. However, the security of this supply is problematic with the rundown in Western inventory supplies to critical levels of just 12 months reactor feed.

In addition the Russian government recently announced that it would not continue the "Megatons to Megawatts" programme when it expires in 2013. This program has been the major source of secondary supply. According to World Nuclear Association (WNA) figures, last year the deficit between mine supply of 39,655kt, and global demand was a massive 40%. In other words, last year secondary supply totalled 22,981kt.

Cigar Lake

However, the mine supply response has recently suffered a huge blow with the flooding of the massive Cigar Lake project in Canada. The reserve estimate of 100kt was expected to support full production of 8kt pa in 2010. However recent news from Cameco indicated that Cigar Lake production will be delayed until 2011. 

The implications of the unexpected delay in the Cigar Lake project cannot be underestimated. This project was expected to provide 10% of global supply.
Considering there is a 4-5 year lead time to convert uranium to a reactor fuel source, utilities require long dated contracts of at least 5 years for security of supply. This comes after the ERA announcement that FY 08 production will be 25% to 35% lower than last year's production.
Consequently, the massive spike in the uranium spot price is reflecting a significant gap in the supply horizon.

Uranium price upgrade

The prospect of a significant decline in secondary supply and the current production problems of Cameco and ERA have exacerbated the supply deficit.
In addition considering these problems and the continuing strength of the uranium market, we have upgraded our price assumptions. Our forecast for
FY08 is now US$125/lb (previously US$95/lb).

However the market is currently focusing on the recent fall in the spot price from $US138lb to $US129lb. At the same time analysts have conveniently ignored the long term price which has remained constant at its all-time high of $US95lb. In contrast, we believe the fundamentals for the uranium price have actually improved. We think this is a minor correction in a long term bull market which is providing another opportunity for the short termists to promote a negative view.

M&A activity

Unsurprisingly there was a rumour yesterday that Cameco, the world's largest uranium miner, was poised to make a takeover bid for Paladin (PDN). The delays at Cigar Lake have left a "massive hole" in Cameco's production profile and a takeover for PDN, which is currently in production, makes very good commercial sense. Subsequently PDN confirmed emphatically that no such offer had been received but interestingly Cameco made no comment. Mmmm interesting.

Paladin

Paladin is in the process of ramping up its first uranium mine, Langer Heinrich in Namibia, and is constructing its second, Kayelekera in Malawi.
Further out, there is the potential to develop the promising Mt Isa region, which PDN has recently secured through a A$1B takeover of Summit Resources.
PDN is in a unique position in the industry with an exciting growth profile exposed to the spot uranium market, whereas most of its competitors are locked into punitive long-term contracts.

The Langer Heinrich project, (aka Langer/Hayden), is located in Namibia and 40km south of RIO's existing Rossing uranium mine. The area is highly prospective, but more importantly the Government is encouraging development.
PDN has recently confirmed FY 08 production guidance of 1200tpa. Our current estimate of the mine life is 17 years which includes the Stage 2 project, and assumes a 76% conversion of current resources to reserves. Given the Heinrich mineralisation we think this is reasonably conservative.

However we believe the jewel in the crown is the Valhalla deposit. Valhalla is a large, high-grade deposit that should enable a high tonnage, long life operation near Mt Isa. The current resource is estimated at 31kt, but we think this will prove very conservative considering the ore body is open on all sides. After a proposed start up in 2H 11, Valhalla is expected to ramp up to full production of 3,465kt pa for 10 years. In addition it gives PDN access to the Bigrlyi deposit in the NT where the resource has recently been upgraded by 26% to 6400kts.

Production guidance

Paladin has recently downgraded its Langer Heinrich June 2007 half production forecast to 270klbs from 400klbs, due to problems associated with commissioning the new plant. Most of these problems have now been rectified and the company expects to meet its FY08 guidance for production of 1,200t pa. 
Importantly we have not changed our long term production forecasts. We expect current production to rise 140% over the next 2 years to 2,953t in FY 10.However with first production from Valhalla in 2011 this will rise significantly. As a result we expect PDN to become a top 10 global producer.


----------



## Fab

*Re: PDN - Paladin Resources*



Fab said:


> Here is why PDN is a big big buy.
> 
> Uranium
> 
> In this context we believe the uranium industry is both strategic, and on the verge of global consolidation. Xstrata has already confirmed that uranium is a strategic commodity target and there is no doubt that this view was a major consideration in the failed bid for Western Mining. In addition CVRD has recently farmed into two uranium exploration assets in W.A. The long term fundamentals of the uranium market remain very strong, with a significant increase in global demand, against a backdrop of future supply shortages, supported by the first synchronised effort by world Government's to reduce global carbon emissions.
> 
> Supply constraints
> 
> Interestingly, the uranium market is supported by precisely the same supply characteristics as base metals. There are major production constraints and serious delays in the supply response against a significant increase in global demand. Since 1985 static mine production has resulted in up to 50% of reactor uranium requirements sourced from secondary supply. However, the security of this supply is problematic with the rundown in Western inventory supplies to critical levels of just 12 months reactor feed.
> 
> In addition the Russian government recently announced that it would not continue the "Megatons to Megawatts" programme when it expires in 2013. This program has been the major source of secondary supply. According to World Nuclear Association (WNA) figures, last year the deficit between mine supply of 39,655kt, and global demand was a massive 40%. In other words, last year secondary supply totalled 22,981kt.
> 
> Cigar Lake
> 
> However, the mine supply response has recently suffered a huge blow with the flooding of the massive Cigar Lake project in Canada. The reserve estimate of 100kt was expected to support full production of 8kt pa in 2010. However recent news from Cameco indicated that Cigar Lake production will be delayed until 2011.
> 
> The implications of the unexpected delay in the Cigar Lake project cannot be underestimated. This project was expected to provide 10% of global supply.
> Considering there is a 4-5 year lead time to convert uranium to a reactor fuel source, utilities require long dated contracts of at least 5 years for security of supply. This comes after the ERA announcement that FY 08 production will be 25% to 35% lower than last year's production.
> Consequently, the massive spike in the uranium spot price is reflecting a significant gap in the supply horizon.
> 
> Uranium price upgrade
> 
> The prospect of a significant decline in secondary supply and the current production problems of Cameco and ERA have exacerbated the supply deficit.
> In addition considering these problems and the continuing strength of the uranium market, we have upgraded our price assumptions. Our forecast for
> FY08 is now US$125/lb (previously US$95/lb).
> 
> However the market is currently focusing on the recent fall in the spot price from $US138lb to $US129lb. At the same time analysts have conveniently ignored the long term price which has remained constant at its all-time high of $US95lb. In contrast, we believe the fundamentals for the uranium price have actually improved. We think this is a minor correction in a long term bull market which is providing another opportunity for the short termists to promote a negative view.
> 
> M&A activity
> 
> Unsurprisingly there was a rumour yesterday that Cameco, the world's largest uranium miner, was poised to make a takeover bid for Paladin (PDN). The delays at Cigar Lake have left a "massive hole" in Cameco's production profile and a takeover for PDN, which is currently in production, makes very good commercial sense. Subsequently PDN confirmed emphatically that no such offer had been received but interestingly Cameco made no comment. Mmmm interesting.
> 
> Paladin
> 
> Paladin is in the process of ramping up its first uranium mine, Langer Heinrich in Namibia, and is constructing its second, Kayelekera in Malawi.
> Further out, there is the potential to develop the promising Mt Isa region, which PDN has recently secured through a A$1B takeover of Summit Resources.
> PDN is in a unique position in the industry with an exciting growth profile exposed to the spot uranium market, whereas most of its competitors are locked into punitive long-term contracts.
> 
> The Langer Heinrich project, (aka Langer/Hayden), is located in Namibia and 40km south of RIO's existing Rossing uranium mine. The area is highly prospective, but more importantly the Government is encouraging development.
> PDN has recently confirmed FY 08 production guidance of 1200tpa. Our current estimate of the mine life is 17 years which includes the Stage 2 project, and assumes a 76% conversion of current resources to reserves. Given the Heinrich mineralisation we think this is reasonably conservative.
> 
> However we believe the jewel in the crown is the Valhalla deposit. Valhalla is a large, high-grade deposit that should enable a high tonnage, long life operation near Mt Isa. The current resource is estimated at 31kt, but we think this will prove very conservative considering the ore body is open on all sides. After a proposed start up in 2H 11, Valhalla is expected to ramp up to full production of 3,465kt pa for 10 years. In addition it gives PDN access to the Bigrlyi deposit in the NT where the resource has recently been upgraded by 26% to 6400kts.
> 
> Production guidance
> 
> Paladin has recently downgraded its Langer Heinrich June 2007 half production forecast to 270klbs from 400klbs, due to problems associated with commissioning the new plant. Most of these problems have now been rectified and the company expects to meet its FY08 guidance for production of 1,200t pa.
> Importantly we have not changed our long term production forecasts. We expect current production to rise 140% over the next 2 years to 2,953t in FY 10.However with first production from Valhalla in 2011 this will rise significantly. As a result we expect PDN to become a top 10 global producer.




Largely unhedged

PDN has already committed 50% of Stage I production to a long term contract at $US60lb with an escalator for price participation above $US80lb. This is well above the legacy contracts for the incumbent producers of $US15-25lb.
However the other 50% of production is expected to be sold into the spot market where the current price has risen to $US129lb. Consequently PDN is totally unhedged, and fully leveraged for 50% of production at the spot price. As a result, PDN is in a very advantageous and highly profitable position compared to the global peer group.

While the market agonises over the small decline in the spot uranium market we think analysts are overlooking two very important issues. PDN is a current producer with an increasing production profile in a global market where supply is becoming increasingly constrained and demand is accelerating rapidly. Secondly PDN's production is 50% unhedged providing a unique opportunity to lock in current prices which have risen from just $US 25 less than 2 years ago. The global mining consolidation is about scale and leverage and clearly PDN has both. 

Valuation and 12 month target

Our analyst Rob Bishop on a base case, values PDN's "non-producing"
resources, other than Langer Heinrich, at US$7/lb which is just 15% of our long term price is $6.57. However using a US$12.50/lb figure based on prices paid for recent transactions in the uranium industry, our upside valuation increases to A$9.74 supporting our 12 month target of $10.00.

However on a global consolidation of the industry I think the takeover price would be in excess of $12.00. PDN is a serious company, with some very serious credentials, however it appears that institutional investors are viewing PDN with the same scepticism they previously viewed FMG. All I know is that through time perceptions change. PDN will either be re-priced to reflect its unique position, or will be re-priced by a corporate. I suspect the latter is more likely. PDN is a strong buy.


----------



## Joe Blow

*Re: PDN - Paladin Resources*

Fab, please cite your sources or they will be removed.

Who wrote this and where did it come from? Please provide a link if possible.


----------



## Fab

*Re: PDN - Paladin Resources*



Joe Blow said:


> Fab, please cite your sources or they will be removed.
> 
> Who wrote this and where did it come from? Please provide a link if possible.




Eureka report is the source and I believe the person who wrote it is Charlie Aikens. Very good article by the way


----------



## Fab

*Re: PDN - Paladin Resources*

Looks like PDN is on target from the latest annoucement a bit of a delay but still a rare producer in the U mining industry. Plus more mining on their way. Also there appears to be a lot of support around $7.50. Sounds good for this one to bounce back


----------



## shag

*Re: PDN - Paladin Resources*



Fab said:


> Looks like PDN is on target from the latest annoucement a bit of a delay but still a rare producer in the U mining industry. Plus more mining on their way. Also there appears to be a lot of support around $7.50. Sounds good for this one to bounce back




a lot of shares went thru this arvo in a few minutes, so someones buying in quick at lows.
pressed the price down to mid 720's.
seemed strange after a reasonably good report from their langer plant.
a wild day for the shares. varied from -2% to +3%


----------



## Fab

*Re: PDN - Paladin Resources*

Indeed a lot of volume on this one and the SP is plunging. Surprising as the announcement was good. Also this might get some interest from company looking at buying PDN and the low 7 are very cheap for PDN as a producer.


----------



## purple

*Re: PDN - Paladin Resources*

Fab 

thanks for posting the article. sounds good. PDN has really struggled and consolidated and struggled since the Feb correction. 

the sprice hasn't really reflected its fundamentals - the quality of its assets.


----------



## Go Nuke

*Re: PDN - Paladin Resources*



purple said:


> Fab
> 
> thanks for posting the article. sounds good. PDN has really struggled and consolidated and struggled since the Feb correction.
> 
> the sprice hasn't really reflected its fundamentals - the quality of its assets.




Still...how confident are you that the $7.40 support will hold up??

As Kennas says, its like catching falling daggers. Paladin is still in a very big downtrend, so perhaps we will see some sideways action if the support does hold up.


----------



## Fab

*Re: PDN - Paladin Resources*



Go Nuke said:


> Still...how confident are you that the $7.40 support will hold up??
> 
> As Kennas says, its like catching falling daggers. Paladin is still in a very big downtrend, so perhaps we will see some sideways action if the support does hold up.




Indeed the downtrend has to stop first. Very surprising to me that PDN is actually in a downtrend so any explanation would be welcome?


----------



## dlineinvestor

*Re: PDN - Paladin Resources*

Paladin Resources Ltd is an Australian listed company involved in the mineral resource sector with projects both in Australia and Africa. Paladin has adopted a dual strategy for creating wealth for its shareholders from its uranium assets and its proprietary database. The resource arm of Paladin has a strong emphasis on uranium. With the recent acquisition of the Langer Heinrich Uranium Project.
Low volume on todays decline only positive so far


----------



## Sean K

*Re: PDN - Paladin Resources*



dlineinvestor said:


> Paladin Resources Ltd is an Australian listed company involved in the mineral resource sector with projects both in Australia and Africa. Paladin has adopted a dual strategy for creating wealth for its shareholders from its uranium assets and its proprietary database. The resource arm of Paladin has a strong emphasis on uranium. With the recent acquisition of the Langer Heinrich Uranium Project.
> Low volume on todays decline only positive so far



Wow, dline, great find. I haven't seen this stock before, thanks for introducing it to us!! Looks like a goer!   

Strong emphasis on U?
Recent acquisition of LH? 

..decline only positive...?????

What the???


----------



## Fab

*Re: PDN - Paladin Resources*



dlineinvestor said:


> Paladin Resources Ltd is an Australian listed company involved in the mineral resource sector with projects both in Australia and Africa. Paladin has adopted a dual strategy for creating wealth for its shareholders from its uranium assets and its proprietary database. The resource arm of Paladin has a strong emphasis on uranium. With the recent acquisition of the Langer Heinrich Uranium Project.
> Low volume on todays decline only positive so far




Where did you get that graph from? and at what support point should PDN bounce back up?? I still believe this is unusual downtrend for PDN.


----------



## Caliente

*Re: PDN - Paladin Resources*

uauhauhahauhaa! Wait a second - Paladin eh? 

What exactly is it these white knights of the west do?


----------



## Julia

*Re: PDN - Paladin Resources*



Fab said:


> Indeed the downtrend has to stop first. Very surprising to me that PDN is actually in a downtrend so any explanation would be welcome?




There has been a production downgrade.  Following is an extract from FNarena today.

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Paladin Production Downgrade Concerns Analysts
FN Arena News - July 31 2007 

By Greg Peel

If there is a common belief among resource analysts it is that markets tend to get carried away with the valuation of start-up projects, without giving sufficient regard to the teething problems that invariably occur. Paladin Resources (PDN) much feted Langer Heinrich uranium project was never going to be an exception. But in the wider story of uranium demand/supply fundamentals and the euphoria surrounding the market, teething problems in Namibia were something that could possibly be pushed to the background.

Paladin's sensational run has been all about the fact the uranium price has soared and is expected to rise further, and about the fact that Paladin actually has a uranium resource and the go-ahead to mine it, unlike many of the sought after juniors in the Australian uranium space. When the Paladin share price first passed $10 the company had not yet mined a jot, and while it was clear the uranium price would keep heading north it seemed that was already in the market's valuation. Paladin may well have pulled back on its own merits, but given its heavy dilution to acquire most of the still restricted Summit Resources there was enough of a pullback catalyst anyway. And now the uranium price has pulled back some as well, which is hardly a shock.

So in this environment it was time to turn to stark reality, and that is that Paladin actually has to pull the stuff out of the ground, process it and ship it. Early set-backs were encountered, but these never bothered the analysts as that is exactly what they were expecting. This latest production downgrade has, however, bothered the analysts.

Paladin's "drummed" production (ie U3O8 mined, processed and put in a drum) to June 2007 was 119,586lbs. This compares to 200,000lbs guidance, and occurred as a result of a dryer problem late in June. This is not a downgrade on actual ore - it just means there are now stocks retained waiting to reach the drummed stage. It does mean however that Paladin's new FY08 production guidance is only 2.2Mlbs compared to a previous 2.6Mlbs.

This downgrade is more than analysts had otherwise factored in for the Langer Heinrich ramp-up. It has sparked a raft of profit downgrades (as much as 48% in FY08 from UBS) although analysts are allowing some scope for Paladin to catch back up. But what it has also done is evoked a drop in confidence.

Macquarie analysts summed up a general feeling in saying "we are not yet alarmed, but certainly more than a little concerned". Deutsche Bank notes that as late as June 13 management suggested "essentially the project is achieving design throughput". But it hasn't, and Macquarie suggests previous flow-sheet modifications have not been as successful as hoped.

At the end of the day, the bulls remain bullish, with UBS (Buy) and Deutsche Bank (Buy) both citing their longer term positive view on uranium. GSJB Were (Sell) believes the production problems seem quickly solvable but the broker remains concerned that the stock is overvalued. Macquarie (Neutral) is remaining in cautious mode and has issued a warning to investors in all uranium juniors that uranium is not an easy game, and that operational delivery, project development timing and valuation metrics provide short, medium and long term risks respectively for all uranium plays.

A wary Macquarie has dropped its target from $9.30 to $7.75, while Deutsche has moved from $10.00 to $9.12, UBS from $11.00 to $10.70 and Weres has stayed put at $7.79.

ABN Amro, where are you? The average target in the FNArena database now sits at $9.49 (stock price down more than 3% this morning to $7.19) and the B/H/S ratio is 3/1/1 but ABN has not piped up since April and it has a Buy with a $12.10 target. Take that out, and the average is $8.84.



--------------------------------------------------------------------------------


----------



## Bush Trader

*Re: PDN - Paladin Resources*



Fab said:


> Indeed the downtrend has to stop first. Very surprising to me that PDN is actually in a downtrend so any explanation would be welcome?




Remember before early this year it was not an approved security with many margin lenders.  It is now, and when the boat gets rocky many are forced to jump.  This share has attracted a lot of hot mony over the past 12 months, some were buying the dips and getting out on the highs, for many others it must be over 12 months since their initial purchases, CGT Discount, Stock appears to be softining, anyway iv'e made my 65%, etc - time to sell?

If you've got a long view and can handle some red in your portfolio I would be loking at any weakness as a oportunity.  It worked for me with BHP last year, when we all knew that the super cycle was not over and brokers had not upgraded their commodity pricing forward, and the maket fell out of favour with the stock and chased industrials and finiancials.  This could be the same scenario.

FN Arena - Broker Reports as follows

1 Neutral 3 Buys - Average target Price $9.92 or 38.7% upside

All brokers have factored in the disappointing production numbers reported


Cheers


BT


----------



## reece55

*Re: PDN - Paladin Resources*



kennas said:


> Wow, dline, great find. I haven't seen this stock before, thanks for introducing it to us!! Looks like a goer!
> 
> Strong emphasis on U?
> Recent acquisition of LH?
> 
> ..decline only positive...?????
> 
> What the???




HAHAHAHAHA.... very subtle Kennas..... LOL......

Remind me everyone, because last time I checked lower lows and low highs constitutes a down trend, albeit on the short term time frame?????? I know we have had a pretty bearish run of trading sessions recently, but the price action is as clear as day............

PDN shows exactly why I was wary when it's share price went up to 11.00 - inevitably, the bar is set too high and Companies just can't deliver on the hype. Yes, the long term fundamentals are there, but is it really under or overvalued if they can't mine the thing quickly enough (now 2x downgrades, which now questions the reliability of managements assurances), we are now 2.2 Mil from 2.6.

All in all, it's stay well away at present IMO......... 

Cheers


----------



## Sean K

*Re: PDN - Paladin Resources*

Could Borshoff be talking up takeover spec to lift his share price? 



			
				The Australian said:
			
		

> *Paladin a tempting target *
> Kevin Andrusiak, Resources | August 01, 2007
> 
> PALADIN Resources managing director John Borshoff admits the recent plunge in the value of Paladin scrip might tempt a potential suitor.
> 
> Paladin has shed about 16.3 per cent of its market capitalisation since July 20, as word filtered out about a production downgrade and the uranium spot price slipped lower.
> 
> From a record share price of $10.80 in October, Paladin has lost about $2.2 billion in market capitalisation.
> 
> "The price weakness might tempt somebody," Mr Borshoff said. "I had no worries up until six months ago and I still believe I don't have anything major to worry about.
> 
> "We have had defence advisers on the matter for the past 18 months. But you can't deny there seems to be a rationalisation of the whole uranium market at the moment."
> 
> Paladin's biggest threat could come from French uranium giant Areva, which recently paid about $US2.5 billion ($2.9 billion) for South African-based UraMin, which has its flagship project in Namibia with an inferred resource of 139 million pounds.
> 
> Paladin's Langer Heinrich operation has an inferred resource of nearly four times that amount, at much higher grades.
> 
> Areva has made no secret of its intentions to double uranium production capacity to 10,000 tonnes a year by 2010.
> 
> Despite a shock announcement on Monday that Paladin would fall well short of production targets for the six months to the end of June, Mr Borshoff said the company was well on track to be at full production in 2008, producing 1180 tonnes of uranium.
> 
> "You do have to work on your credibility after a production downgrade," he said.
> 
> "Full quota shouldn't be a problem next year. We produced in July what we produced over the previous six months."
> 
> Deutsche Bank analysts Brendan James and Brendan Fitzpatrick said in a note to clients that commissioning problems as Paladin moved from explorer to producer were to be expected.
> 
> "What we are more concerned about, however, is that the company has not yet attained production capacity, despite previous guidance to that effect," the analysts said.
> 
> Paladin's shares closed 25c lower yesterday at $7.18.




Looks more and more a possibility by the day. Maybe watch for some unusual accumulation/volume for hints. Could be worth a nice stag gain if an offer does come in. I wouldn't expect a one horse race either, as PDN do have some outstanding long term potential projects.


----------



## Damuzzdu

*Re: PDN - Paladin Resources*



reece55 said:


> HAHAHAHAHA.... very subtle Kennas..... LOL......
> 
> Remind me everyone, because last time I checked lower lows and low highs constitutes a down trend, albeit on the short term time frame?????? I know we have had a pretty bearish run of trading sessions recently, but the price action is as clear as day............
> 
> PDN shows exactly why I was wary when it's share price went up to 11.00 - inevitably, the bar is set too high and Companies just can't deliver on the hype. Yes, the long term fundamentals are there, but is it really under or overvalued if they can't mine the thing quickly enough (now 2x downgrades, which now questions the reliability of managements assurances), we are now 2.2 Mil from 2.6.
> 
> All in all, it's stay well away at present IMO.........
> 
> Cheers




Reece55,

Ahhh a downtrend, you mean something like this i'm guessing....mmmmmmmmm

PDN down again in Canada o/nite and with DJIA tanking again, PDN will be in big danger of testing the important $7 support level.

If PDN continues to go lower, some will say "Oh, this might bring out some predator", but they are going to want to buy PDN at the cheapest price possible, so why would they buy up shares to drive the price higher??? Just let it keep falling and then bid 20% over the current share price at the time and watch the acceptances flood in..

Cheers
Muzz


----------



## nizar

*Re: PDN - Paladin Resources*



kennas said:


> Wow, dline, great find. I haven't seen this stock before, thanks for introducing it to us!! Looks like a goer!
> 
> Strong emphasis on U?
> Recent acquisition of LH?
> 
> ..decline only positive...?????
> 
> What the???




LOL.
Hahaha, great call bro.
I was gonna say the same thing.

Solid downtrend this one.

I thought it was a sure buy after the Feb correction, and that it would run like a champion once the correction was over.... lol. How wrong was I? 

Good thing I use stops


----------



## dlineinvestor

*Re: PDN - Paladin Resources*

What fun it is to be the centre of attention, I did post an explanation for the lame text in post #976 but to add some humour into our thread the explanation post was deleted by Kenna's, of course only to add to the fun. Consequently those that replied were lead wrongly to believe the reason for the text.
The copied text was to bypass typing up 100 characters in order to post the chart in a hurry. (not very clear I apologise) and not good judgement on my part. A lesson learned and a lesson for all.


----------



## PhoenixXx

*Re: PDN - Paladin Resources*



Damuzzdu said:


> PDN down again in Canada o/nite and with DJIA tanking again, PDN will be in big danger of testing the important $7 support level.




PDN really makes my day...even broke the $7 support level. Hmmmh...what's the next support level we are looking then


----------



## Morgan

*Re: PDN - Paladin Resources*

Oh dear- into the sixes now- so much for investing in a U producer rather than an explorer.
Strapping on the parachute and watching............:couch


----------



## Sean K

*Re: PDN - Paladin Resources*



dlineinvestor said:


> What fun it is to be the centre of attention, I did post an explanation for the lame text in post #976 but to add some humour into our thread the explanation post was deleted by Kenna's, of course only to add to the fun. Consequently those that replied were lead wrongly to believe the reason for the text.
> The copied text was to bypass typing up 100 characters in order to post the chart in a hurry. (not very clear I apologise) and not good judgement on my part. A lesson learned and a lesson for all.



 he he. And thanks for the PM. :chainsaw:

I deleted that second post because it made absolutely no sence whatsoever. Many appologies if it did! 

Your first post was rather funny though. PDN 'specialising in uranium'. LOL. 

By the way, please read the 100 character rule. It includes a clause about padding out posts to satisfy the rule, which results in a 2 point infraction!!! You probably shouldn't be admitting that right now. 

Now, PDN, what 'news' do you have for us??


----------



## Ken

*Re: PDN - Paladin Resources*

I am no expert but looking at the chart, next support below $7 is $5.00

Can't see PDN at $5 considering the price of uranium.


----------



## Sean K

*Re: PDN - Paladin Resources*



PhoenixXx said:


> PDN really makes my day...even broke the $7 support level. Hmmmh...what's the next support level we are looking then



$7.50 was probably more important IMO. Now there looks to be support in 50c increments on the way down to $5, which _should _be a floor, if it gets there. Impossible to call right now. Much depends on the overall market atm. Good luck to longs.


----------



## PhoenixXx

*Re: PDN - Paladin Resources*



kennas said:


> Good luck to longs.




Thx...badly need it atm. Anyway, talking about the $7.50 support.
It was broken easily down to $7.20-ish on Monday (30/7) when the ann came out about the downgrade in Langer Heinrich.
So far...i haven't seen any light coming out soon of PDN. Will keep holding though


----------



## shag

*Re: PDN - Paladin Resources*



kennas said:


> $7.50 was probably more important IMO. Now there looks to be support in 50c increments on the way down to $5, which _should _be a floor, if it gets there. Impossible to call right now. Much depends on the overall market atm. Good luck to longs.




i wish i had listened more to yr downtrend talk kennas. i inherited my stock from summit so thats my excuse for today, tho i bought more unfortunately.
what books/web pages do u suggest to learn charting, i'd beter learn about downtrends and support levels esp. uranium is still essential to getting greenhouse gasses down untill some other energy source is cracked(fusion).


----------



## Damuzzdu

*Re: PDN - Paladin Resources*



Ken said:


> I am no expert but looking at the chart, next support below $7 is $5.00
> 
> Can't see PDN at $5 considering the price of uranium.




Ken,

Next major support is at $5.50, although today's low gives some minor support.

This has now broken all support lines and is now trading well outside the channel that PDN had formed over the past 3.5 months, since the double top.

Can't see PDN at $5.00...mmmm....Now we are not living down the back of the garden with the pixies are we Ken ???....mmmmm. And, if the U price keeps going down, what then? Sentiment is driving the price action in PDN right now and ain't good. 

Will it bounce, well I guess it will at some stage but when, that is the $64K question.?

Cheers
Muzz


----------



## Sean K

*Re: PDN - Paladin Resources*

Somewhere between here and $5.00 you could _possibly _anticipate some sort of consolidation, IMO. This has crept on to the list of quite a few managers recently, and with U still looking promising long term hmmmmm....

Brokers opinions:

Broker..................date..............reco...........12 month target

Macquarie ........... 31-Jul-07 ....  Neutral ...... $7.75    
UBS ................... 31-Jul-07  .... Buy 2 ........ $10.70    
Deutsche Bank .....31-Jul-07 .....  Buy ........... $9.12    
ABN Amro ........... 13-Apr-07  ...  Buy .......... $12.10

That's quite a variation on the current price.


----------



## hacheln_mice

*Re: PDN - Paladin Resources*

Those who are still long this thing must have balls of steel.  Talk about fighting the trend.

The best the PDN bulls can hope for now is mass capitulation.


----------



## shag

*Re: PDN - Paladin Resources*

the question is will it shoot up as fast as its fallen, and for as long?
did anyone notice today how most of the miners at least lost all their gains(including paladin) and well below mid afternooon, only to shoot back up all in a matter or under ten minutes. the warrants seemed to be pulled due to the volatillity.
i've gone in even deeper, so hope the downtrend is a goner.


----------



## Uncle Festivus

*Re: PDN - Paladin Resources*

Well I have  no knowledge of the U industry or an in depth knowledge of PDN for that matter but there comes a point in any stock where it's obviously oversold. Judging by the negativity in general going around on this stock, it must be a contrarians pick of the year almost? The players are watching this one I think. Forget about your TA support points & have a look at the fundamentals again.


----------



## Ken

*Re: PDN - Paladin Resources*

Would you say the same thing about Progen when it was at $6 after it had been $10, and still with a price target of $14.

Current price of PGL $3.60.


----------



## aussienorm

*Re: PDN - Paladin Resources*



hacheln_mice said:


> Those who are still long this thing must have balls of steel.  Talk about fighting the trend.
> 
> The best the PDN bulls can hope for now is mass capitulation.




As a user of charts to predict a "turning point",i am constantly amazed as to how "gaps" are usually "Filled",..........PDN has a huge gap at $4.93 to 5.35, have made some cash on this and SMM in the past 2 years and sold all around $9. Any comment from other chartist.........I am Suprised it could get back to this level.Regard to all,


----------



## shag

*Re: PDN - Paladin Resources*



aussienorm said:


> As a user of charts to predict a "turning point",i am constantly amazed as to how "gaps" are usually "Filled",..........PDN has a huge gap at $4.93 to 5.35, have made some cash on this and SMM in the past 2 years and sold all around $9. Any comment from other chartist.........I am Suprised it could get back to this level.Regard to all,




hope so and about time if it is.
a good read on nuc future
http://money.cnn.com/2007/07/30/magazines/fortune/legthree.fortune/index.htm?postversion=2007080210


----------



## drmb

*Re: PDN - Paladin Resources*



Ken said:


> Would you say the same thing about Progen when it was at $6 after it had been $10, and still with a price target of $14. Current price of PGL $3.60.




PGL and PDN - bit like apples and pears? Or even Apples and ???? Mist?? PDN have production facility with teething probs but real sales, not sure if PGL have ever had any sales. But point well taken

"Progen Industries is involved in the research, development, manufacture and marketing of molecular biology products and biopharmaceuticals. The company is also developing and trialling a cancer therapeutic PI-88"


----------



## Uncle Festivus

*Re: PDN - Paladin Resources*



Ken said:


> Would you say the same thing about Progen when it was at $6 after it had been $10, and still with a price target of $14.
> 
> Current price of PGL $3.60.




No, unless they mine U and have sale contracts in place and told the market that the start up teething problems have largely been fixed and Summit has dropped the court case and....
What I was implying was that before the cut back, a few analysts, who I would presume would have doen their sums to a greater degree than me, were targeting prices above $10. Now it is up to the market to say whether PDN at a share price of $6.50 has suffiently discounted all the bad news in and apart from the general market nervousness, it would be looking cheap on fundamentals alone?


----------



## TheAbyss

*Re: PDN - Paladin Resources*

Trouble is that nearly everything looks cheap today compared to last weeks prices. Currently we have no idea what is cheap and what is expensive. If last week was a guide to next weeks SP you would borrow a million and buy a truckload, oops thats what got us in this position today.

Not to say you need advice form me Uncle as i was silly enough to top up on two this morning (BNB and MGX).


----------



## bigdog

*Re: PDN - Paladin Resources*

PDN had three very large special trades after the close above today's  "last price" of $6.5000 

Total volume today was 5,159,074 shares

Today: 03-Aug-2007 
Time-AES Price .Volume Value .......Condition Codes 
16:26:21 6.5890 90,353 595,335.92 SXXT 
16:16:16 6.8420 199,900 1,367,715.80 SPXT 
16:16:16 6.8420 199,900 1,367,715.80 SPXT 
16:13:43 6.6060 276,000 1,823,256.00 PTXT 
16:10:02 6.5000 3,000 19,500.00  
16:10:02 6.5000 6,557 42,620.50


----------



## eMark

*Re: PDN - Paladin Resources*

Very interesting Bigdog. Any idea what this means? The numbers are special enough, but in which direction? You have posted it here out of interest, but what significance does it hold (at the end of the week?)

Cheers

e Mark



bigdog said:


> PDN had three very large special trades after the close above today's  "last price" of $6.5000
> 
> Total volume today was 5,159,074 shares
> 
> Today: 03-Aug-2007
> Time-AES Price .Volume Value .......Condition Codes
> 16:26:21 6.5890 90,353 595,335.92 SXXT
> 16:16:16 6.8420 199,900 1,367,715.80 SPXT
> 16:16:16 6.8420 199,900 1,367,715.80 SPXT
> 16:13:43 6.6060 276,000 1,823,256.00 PTXT
> 16:10:02 6.5000 3,000 19,500.00
> 16:10:02 6.5000 6,557 42,620.50


----------



## bigdog

*Re: PDN - Paladin Resources*



eMark said:


> Very interesting Bigdog. Any idea what this means? The numbers are special enough, but in which direction? You have posted it here out of interest, but what significance does it hold (at the end of the week?)
> 
> Cheers
> 
> e Mark



Mark,

I have started to monitor potential takeover targets and look for sustained large special individual sales that are over a million $ after the close which includes PDN.

PDN special sales have been quite for the past two months except for special sales were on July 26 (2,056,000 shares) and yesterdays volume which totaled only 676,000 shares.

Will keep checking next week!


----------



## Fab

*Re: PDN - Paladin Resources*



bigdog said:


> Mark,
> 
> I have started to monitor potential takeover targets and look for sustained large special individual sales that are over a million $ after the close which includes PDN.
> 
> PDN special sales have been quite for the past two months except for special sales were on July 26 (2,056,000 shares) and yesterdays volume which totaled only 676,000 shares.
> 
> Will keep checking next week!




I am not sure I fully understand what you mean here. If they are special sell order of a stock like PDN I would not take it as a sign of potential takeover target as if someone is getting ride off there stocks it is not because they think the stock they are dumping will be the target of a takeover .
What am missing here ?


----------



## drmb

*Re: PDN - Paladin Resources*



Fab said:


> I am not sure I fully understand what you mean here. If they are special sell order of a stock like PDN I would not take it as a sign of potential takeover target as if someone is getting ride off there stocks it is not because they think the stock they are dumping will be the target of a takeover. What am missing here ?



From at garyrm1983 at HC - "(They are) call and put options that you may hold they are exercised after close or before open. There has been significantly more of these "trades" in the past 2 weeks due to the stock market correction. Generally people buy and sell options and warrents without actually exercising them. But given the warning in June/July about the correcttion people bought them for protection more than anything else. now they are exercising them"


----------



## goldensun76

*Re: PDN - Paladin Resources*

I guess for now in the short term is to lookout for th U price.  If the price stablize around $120 per pound, I guess fundmentally there should not be too much hick up.  If the price rebound, I think there PDN should start to pick as well.


----------



## Kauri

*Re: PDN - Paladin Resources*

A tad early yet for me to get excited but it looks like ( with todays price action) to be near where I would expect the *W(2)..(C)* to complete. Will put it on my watchlist for now and see how she develops.


----------



## Sean K

*Re: PDN - Paladin Resources*



Kauri said:


> A tad early yet for me to get excited but it looks like ( with todays price action) to be near where I would expect the *W(2)..(C)* to complete. Will put it on my watchlist for now and see how she develops.



Thanks Kauri. Starting to look a little bit more realistic to me too, but oooooo, there's some panicky punters out there.  If it manages $5.50 I won't be able to help myself.


----------



## Lachlan6

*Re: PDN - Paladin Resources*

Kennas, Kauri. I dont think $5.40-50 will be that far off, as on the weekly this level is an important level of support for two reasons. First the fact that previous resistance was found at this level last year, and this level is also the 50% retracement from the start of this huge leg up all the way back in 2004. I am champing at the bit to get into this one, watching closely for any sign of a reversal (say double bottom etc). Has to be very cheap at these levels, surely.


----------



## dj_420

*Re: PDN - Paladin Resources*



Lachlan6 said:


> Kennas, Kauri. I dont think $5.40-50 will be that far off, as on the weekly this level is an important level of support for two reasons. First the fact that previous resistance was found at this level last year, and this level is also the 50% retracement from the start of this huge leg up all the way back in 2004. I am champing at the bit to get into this one, watching closely for any sign of a reversal (say double bottom etc). Has to be very cheap at these levels, surely.




i agree it looks very cheap now. i now have access to leverage my position when we find a bottom IMO at 5.50

i have held since SMM takeover and have only held due to long term investment. very negative market sentiment surrounds PDN at the moment, once teething problems are sorted etc we should start to see some sort of appreciation again.


----------



## alankew

*Re: PDN - Paladin Resources*

Re the announcement from PDN this morning about Areva,seems like great timing on their behalf when there is already negative sentiment surrounding PDN-could be a case of kicking the man while he is down then coming in like a white knight


----------



## Sean K

*Re: PDN - Paladin Resources*

I couldn't call it 'cheap' because I do not know how much $$ they are going to earn in the coming years. No one really does. Still spec to some degree. I'll also be waiting for a bottom, but I'd expect tech bounce between $5 and $6....pending general market. I do note, fundametally, that I think this is the sort of stock that will hold up better than many others, because the world needs energy, and bounce back quicker. POU is still great! And by the look of the sky over Beijing, demand will increase!


----------



## Sean K

*Re: PDN - Paladin Resources*

I've taken a bold punt here. Against my better judgement and general principles on investing. 

Still could make $5.00 on the chart IMO, but that's not too far from where it is now. Outside BB, MACD looks disastrous, and oversold on Stochastics. First time I've bought any of this, which means it'll go to $3.00


----------



## Gundini

*Re: PDN - Paladin Resources*

Doesn't seem like you Kennas trying to catch a falling knife!!! 

I wish you all the best although I'll wait for $5.33 myself...


----------



## Rafa

*Re: PDN - Paladin Resources*

Must admit, the double top and previous resistance levels all point to 5:30 ish...
But don't blame you for jumping in kennas, unless PDN's mine fails spectacularly, its hard to see much more downside than the 5.30ish alluded to previously...


----------



## Sean K

*Re: PDN - Paladin Resources*



Gundini said:


> Doesn't seem like you Kennas trying to catch a falling knife!!!
> 
> I wish you all the best although I'll wait for $5.33 myself...



Thanks Gundini, you are absolutley right, this is crazy!!!! Aaaaagggghhhh!!!! LOL  

This correction is as good an opportunity I've seen in the past 4 years to buy stocks, unless it's a crash and the start of a bear! 

I reserve my assessment on this decision till next week, which time I'll be richer or poorer. 

Balancing shorts and longs is becoming critical, if you're an active investor relying on the market for an income....


----------



## Lachlan6

*Re: PDN - Paladin Resources*

Tempted to call you crazy Kennas but will hold out until we see what eventuates  : Bold buying when the stock is falling soo sharply. Me being a little more conservative will wait a while longer. When I refered to the stock as cheap, agreed PDN is not making any money YET, but great prospects. Moreso I meant it is cheap compared to what it was selling for earlier this year. I am waiting to scale into this when it turns around.


----------



## Logique

*Re: PDN - Paladin Resources*

8.50 down to 5.90 has a sniff of capitulation about it, like the general market.

This thing is way oversold on tech indicators and some adverse U sentiment. I wouldn't be surprised to see 5.30 either, but all the same, IMO anyone entering now will be feeling pretty pleased with themselves later in the year. Anything in range 5.00 - 5.30 is top up territory for me, if it gets that low.


----------



## Sean K

*Re: PDN - Paladin Resources*



Lachlan6 said:


> Tempted to call you crazy Kennas but will hold out until we see what eventuates  : Bold buying when the stock is falling soo sharply. Me being a little more conservative will wait a while longer. When I refered to the stock as cheap, agreed PDN is not making any money YET, but great prospects. Moreso I meant it is cheap compared to what it was selling for earlier this year. I am waiting to scale into this when it turns around.



I'M INSANE!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!  Aaaaggghhhh!!!! 

For those that know how I invest, I short term trade, but also have long term investments. In fact, I have most of my $$ in managed funds, invested OS, where we can not reach, which has been a deliberate tactic over the past year or so. The Australian market has outperformed, and will inevitably pull back, IMO. I have 1/3 of my money invetsed in Japan which has performed terribly the past year, and cost me dearly. If I had have had my money invested in the 'YT Fund', I would be more retired than I am now....

So, I am in a position to make some long term calls now, while the market collapses. Not sure how far it will go, but I know, that quality stocks will reach all time highs again. One day! I hope!!!


----------



## MegaV

*Re: PDN - Paladin Resources*

WTF MAN!!!!
WTF!!!

I am haemorrhaging on this share!

the yanks better sort their **** out!

With most of the big finantial companies placing this share at $10.50 within the next 12 months, you can easily double your money!


----------



## Gundini

*Re: PDN - Paladin Resources*



Logique said:


> 8.50 down to 5.90 has a sniff of capitulation about it, like the general market.
> 
> This thing is way oversold on tech indicators and some adverse U sentiment. I wouldn't be surprised to see 5.30 either, but all the same, IMO anyone entering now will be feeling pretty pleased with themselves later in the year. Anything in range 5.00 - 5.30 is top up territory for me, if it gets that low.




Totally agree! This one has been severely punished and will be back with great gusto. I just don't like the negitive market sentiment and forces for the moment. 

Also PDN is getting knocked around by its purchase of SMM which has been smashed due to the lack of liquidity, currently $2.90 after hitting $6.20 in April.

Surely there is only .50 downside in this ordinary marketplace, and if things start to improve, $5.90 does look exceptional value. 

Just think of the "Street Cred" you will enjoy if you have nailed the bottom of this 4 month slippery slope Kennas, hehehe....


----------



## Sean K

*Re: PDN - Paladin Resources*

People, please, this is not 'undervalued', or a 'bargain'  until anyone knows what they produce, and so far, to be quite frank, thay have failed!! They have NOT succeeded in their projections. If they come out with more 'ramp up problems' expect some more pain!!!


----------



## It's Snake Pliskin

*Re: PDN - Paladin Resources*



kennas said:


> I've taken a bold punt here. Against my better judgement and general principles on investing.
> 
> Still could make $5.00 on the chart IMO, but that's not too far from where it is now. Outside BB, MACD looks disastrous, and oversold on Stochastics. First time I've bought any of this, which means it'll go to $3.00




Kennas,

I am baffled. 

You claim you traded the stock and give a reason using confirming indicators when all they do is CONFIRM. But, they confirm going short.

Stochastics can stay over the touchdown line if under momentum - result redundant indicator. 

BB, maybe a short term price advance enought to cover costs, maybe.

MACD, really is only worth a quick glance to CONFIRM.

Your first sentence is even more baffling. 

regards
Snake


----------



## Sean K

*Re: PDN - Paladin Resources*



It's Snake Pliskin said:


> Kennas,
> 
> I am baffled.
> 
> You claim you traded the stock and give a reason using confirming indicators when all they do is CONFIRM. But, they confirm going short.
> 
> Stochastics can stay over the touchdown line if under momentum - result redundant indicator.
> 
> BB, maybe a short term price advance enought to cover costs, maybe.
> 
> MACD, really is only worth a quick glance to CONFIRM.
> 
> Your first sentence is even more baffling.
> 
> regards
> Snake



Yep, I must be crazy!  I'm baffled too.  The story of a discretionary investor/trader.

Can you think of any rational reason why I have just done this? 

It's somehow intuitive to me.....

Oversold? Long term success? Takeover target? I have equity to move? Belief in stronger for longer?

As I have said before, I'm not just a technical trader, I have most of my $$ in fundamental investments, it's just that I only put charts up here...


----------



## spartn

*Re: PDN - Paladin Resources*

I think you guys have realise the fact that the main reason the stock has been punished so severily is due to the fact the production was only 60% of it's expected figure, it's not just the fact that it is being oversold, the decrease in the share price are following the decrease in the production.

However the MD John Borshoff said that production would be as expected in 2008, so I believe it will be a great buy, but if people start looking at the fundamentals of this Company, you would have to ask yourself would people be willing to buy shares in a company with a PE ratio of 50 - 70.

Spartn

:viking:

P.S. I feel really sorry for the Summit Shareholders, they are the ones who have suffered the most with the drop in Paladin's share price


----------



## Gundini

*Re: PDN - Paladin Resources*

I definately don't think your purchase is crazy Kennas...

Technically, if you had waited, you may have got the stock 50 cents cheaper, but then again you may have missed out on this value price.

Fundumentally, it is an excellent purchase. At current prices PDN's infered resource are valued at around $21 Billion (USD) from memory, and with plenty of upside. That's around 5 times the companys value. Then there is SMM who has control Australia's 3rd largest 308 resource in the country, after BHP and Rio... PDN owns 80%.

And surely, PDN is becoming excellent value as a takeover target.

Add the other possible reasons for you purchase, and it makes plenty of sence! Best wishes, and I will be joining you shortly...


----------



## drmb

*Re: PDN - Paladin Resources*



kennas said:


> People, please, this is not 'undervalued', or a 'bargain'  until anyone knows what they produce, and so far, to be quite frank, thay have failed!! They have NOT succeeded in their projections. If they come out with more 'ramp up problems' expect some more pain!!!




I have been holding since last year but have been becoming increasingly anxious these last few weeks watching the wheels slowly falling off!!! To say the least!!  But I bought last year with the intention of staying at least 2 years. . I think there is still too much potential in this company to let it go in such a volatile market and also think that today's panic may also have something to do with the ann today Areva has sought to intervene in the decision by SMM to drop litigation against PDN. It is in Areva's interest of course for SMM to pursue its majority shareholder in order to up the SMM holdings. Areva must be feeling a bit bitey having paid more than 6 bucks for SMM share, now to see it below 3. Hope that Areva fail of course since this all bites away at the pudding.


----------



## shag

*Re: PDN - Paladin Resources*

closed strong didn't it(compared to the day that is-down solidly all day).
shot up fast in last minute/s. seemed like good numbers too.


----------



## Ken

*Re: PDN - Paladin Resources*

Everyone who holds PDN is doomed.

For no other reason that I purchased today in the $5.80's.

So get the shorts on PDN now that I hold some shares in them.


----------



## Fab

*Re: PDN - Paladin Resources*



Ken said:


> Everyone who holds PDN is doomed.
> 
> For no other reason that I purchased today in the $5.80's.
> 
> So get the shorts on PDN now that I hold some shares in them.




This stock sounds very cheap to me now that is worth less than $6 as they paid more than that to get SMM. So basically if you buy PDN today you get it for less than the price of SMM pretty good I think as PDN itself is already a U producer.


----------



## barney

*Re: PDN - Paladin Resources*



kennas said:


> Yep, I must be crazy!  I'm baffled too.  The story of a discretionary investor/trader.
> 
> Can you think of any rational reason why I have just done this?
> 
> It's somehow intuitive to me.....
> 
> Oversold? Long term success? Takeover target? I have equity to move? Belief in stronger for longer?
> 
> As I have said before, I'm not just a technical trader, I have most of my $$ in fundamental investments, it's just that I only put charts up here...




Hey Kennas, I think your "gut feel" is about as good as anyones, so I think your buying was very justified ................ I reckon there will be a lot of punters thinking exactly the same thing very shortly !!! ............  The very "large volume" trading started on PDN back in late October 2006 at around $5.50, so to me, we are getting very close to a "low as it goes" scenario .................. I won't be far behind you on re-entering, and I suspect the rise (when it happens), will be sharp and swift ............. "The early bird catches the worm", so to speak ............... Cheers.


----------



## Ken

*Re: PDN - Paladin Resources*

It may sound stupid, but is it possible that this stock  needed to scare a few people off by having a correction.

It did not reach $10 without volatility.

Is it possible that a correction down from $10 is just setting PDN up for its next leg up....  

I am no chartist, but your ZFX's, and FMG, wasn't all smooth sailing I wouldn't have thought.

PDN just seems one of the glamour stocks of the mining boom.


If you asked me if PDN could get from $10 to $15 at the start of the year I probably would have said yes. Considering its history... I just didn't expect it to go under $6 again.

Time will tell...

Refer to the ERA chart and PDN is not too different....  as time goes on the movements up and down are going to increase....


----------



## nizar

*Re: PDN - Paladin Resources*

PDN was struggling and in a solid downtrend long before this correction took place.

The past few months have seen several stocks soar, as the index reached yet another new high of 6400ish YET for once, PDN was not leading the way.

Its usually swift to recover from corrections but it still hasnt recovered from the Feb correction.

Looks like a dog to me, or as Gekko would say, a dog with fleas 

Kennas, i thought you would know better


----------



## Sean K

*Re: PDN - Paladin Resources*



nizar said:


> Kennas, i thought you would know better



Yep, I think I was drunk last night when I made this trade.  This time zone thing is a killer!! I might short it today.


----------



## barney

*Re: PDN - Paladin Resources*



nizar said:


> PDN was struggling and in a solid downtrend long before this correction took place.
> 
> The past few months have seen several stocks soar, as the index reached yet another new high of 6400ish YET for once, PDN was not leading the way.
> 
> Its usually swift to recover from corrections but it still hasnt recovered from the Feb correction.
> 
> Looks like a dog to me, or as Gekko would say, a dog with fleas
> 
> Kennas, i thought you would know better





On face value you're dead right Niz, ............... Don't discount the theory it might be one of those "sleeping dogs"   ................  Might just need a little tap with a stick to wake it up :horse:   ................ Seemed to be solid accumulation at the end of trade, but looks like it could test a bit lower in the short term  ................ worth watching imo .....

PS.  Don't short it Kennas ...... It'll go up for sure !!


----------



## Fab

*Re: PDN - Paladin Resources*



kennas said:


> Yep, I think I was drunk last night when I made this trade.  This time zone thing is a killer!! I might short it today.



Well done kennas for buying PDN at this level. I think it is a bargain at this price and with the jump of the DOW overnight this I believe will be a turning point for PDN. I can't imagine it staying at a price lower than what they offered to get SMM


----------



## Sean K

*Re: PDN - Paladin Resources*



barney said:


> PS.  Don't short it Kennas ...... It'll go up for sure !!



 LOL. I'm trying not to have a vino tonight to sort out my decision making processes.  Not sure if I'll get through.  :alcohol: 



Fab said:


> Well done kennas for buying PDN at this level. I think it is a bargain at this price and with the jump of the DOW overnight this I believe will be a turning point for PDN. I can't imagine it staying at a price lower than what they offered to get SMM



Fab, thanks for the support, but I really don't think it was a quality decision in retrospect. Totally against my current entry criteria. I think I'm lucky the US had a bounce but I think the correction could stretch out a bit more. Uranium is generally still in the dog house. I even doubt U stocks will follow the market up today. And as far as this being a bargain at this price......well, who knows. I can remember when this was climbing up and up and when it was about $5.00 I was calling it 'toppy'. Unless they pull some good anns out of the hat, or Areva appears on the registry, I see more choppy waters ahead.


----------



## rostov

*Re: PDN - Paladin Resources*

U308 spot price USD$10 lower, now USD$110.

Together with the DOE, a few sellers are aggressively putting up lower bids. Niger government wants to end Areva monopoly, India 123 plan with US still in infancy stage.

Dunno. This will get interesting to hold.


----------



## alankew

*Re: PDN - Paladin Resources*

Is this in a halt or something,price doesnt appear to be updating on Comsec but only news is yesterdays news


----------



## Gundini

*Re: PDN - Paladin Resources*

07/08/2007 10:13AM   EME: More Significant Uranium Intercepts from Bigrlyi  (7 Pages) 
07/08/2007 10:08AM   Notice Received (headline only) 
07/08/2007 10:08AM   EME: More Significant Uranium Intercepts from Bigrlyi (headline only) 
07/08/2007 10:08AM   Resumes: 10:23 (headline only)


----------



## rostov

*Re: PDN - Paladin Resources*

Erm, lower grade eU308 compared to the normal U308. Open pit possibilities @ 200m, though.

IMO, a mixed result report. How much profits to derive from eU308?


----------



## Sean K

*Re: PDN - Paladin Resources*



kennas said:


> Fab, thanks for the support, but I really don't think it was a quality decision in retrospect.



Sorry Fab, but I had to rectify that rush of alcohol infused blood yesterday. Back on the watch list. I have a feeling that the dead cat is bouncing down the stairs still. It'll get a takeover offer now.


----------



## PhoenixXx

*Re: PDN - Paladin Resources*

I'm not a chartist or whatsoever. Just looking plainly at the chart and did a simple calculation.
As most people pointed out that $7.50 is the very important support level.
And sp now tumbles far below that, so i did a bit of calculation of retracement using this 1 year chart.
Using the lowest low ($4.13) and highest high ($10.5) in a year.
The retracement level (Fibonacci) would ideally be : 
10.5 - {(10.5-4.13)x61.8%} = $6.56.
Falling US market, production downgrade causing the sp to tumble beyond the retracement level.
At this point, i jumped off the boat when it fell below $6.50.
Just wanna say good luck to all who long.


----------



## shag

*Re: PDN - Paladin Resources*

re the dead cat bounce,i think the poor cat hit so hard its guts spilt out all over the place.
i might have to take them off of my watchlist and forget the stupid things untill next year when they might be worth something again or someone bothers with a takeover or should i say a give away. maybe time for new directors and managers.


----------



## Rafa

*Re: PDN - Paladin Resources*

wow, the market is certainly not looking anywhere close to following the US!

and PDN is down?
Kennas, did you get out of PDN with a profit...???
I am out of MTN, 1 day, 5k, not bad... phew...


----------



## Damuzzdu

*Re: PDN - Paladin Resources*



rostov said:


> U308 spot price USD$10 lower, now USD$110.
> 
> Together with the DOE, a few sellers are aggressively putting up lower bids. Niger government wants to end Areva monopoly, India 123 plan with US still in infancy stage.
> 
> Dunno. This will get interesting to hold.




Rostov,

Can you please site a source for USD$110, as i'm looking at UXC & kitcometals and they are showing USD$120 ???

TIA


----------



## rostov

*Re: PDN - Paladin Resources*



Damuzzdu said:


> Rostov,
> 
> Can you please site a source for USD$110, as i'm looking at UXC & kitcometals and they are showing USD$120 ???
> 
> TIA




No problem, but I don't think I can quote source. Except that it's right at the top of the UxC weekly (subscription) 6th August 2008 released about 6 hours ago. Within it:



> Ux U3O8 Price: (8/6/07)
> $110.00 (-$10.00)




I've also noticed that the UxC site still shows a 1-week lagged graph indicating weekly spot U308 at USD$120.00 (30th June 2007) still. I suppose it'll take some time to update?

The weekly attributes downward pressure of this price to aggressive sellers. Also of interest is that the volume of U308/UF6 is like less than 0.1mlbs for July (and of cuz August).


----------



## rostov

*Re: PDN - Paladin Resources*

Total n00b me. Found it:

http://www.uxc.com/products/uxc_subscriber-services.html



> *Please note that Ux Prices and News Headlines are updated on this public site weekly up to 72 hours delayed. Price updates are made on the Subscriber Services site on Monday evenings and an extensive version of News Headlines are updated daily.




This price most likely will be reflected Thursday/Friday on both kitco and uxc public sites?


----------



## Damuzzdu

*Re: PDN - Paladin Resources*



rostov said:


> No problem, but I don't think I can quote source. Except that it's right at the top of the UxC weekly (subscription) 6th August 2008 released about 6 hours ago. Within it:
> 
> 
> 
> I've also noticed that the UxC site still shows a 1-week lagged graph indicating weekly spot U308 at USD$120.00 (30th June 2007) still. I suppose it'll take some time to update?
> 
> The weekly attributes downward pressure of this price to aggressive sellers. Also of interest is that the volume of U308/UF6 is like less than 0.1mlbs for July (and of cuz August).





Ok, many thanks, it is what I expected. Yes, the downward pressure on prices seems to be increasing. This may put furthur pressure on PDN.


----------



## goldensun76

*Re: PDN - Paladin Resources*

Well, I think U price is important at this stage and I think the price should rebound toward the end of the year.  I can not see any additional production bring in line to increase the supply of U in the short to mid term.  PDN will require to show some cash in from the sales....... Let's hope it will not be far away.....


----------



## rostov

*Re: PDN - Paladin Resources*

Actually, I'm a little concerned here (opinion). Do we have a clear picture of how much supply is short compared to demand, and if so, on which fronts? Short, medium, or long term?

The recent correction in Uranium prices over 5 weeks with hardly any volume transacted -- does it actually indicate that the widely-accepted (and current) perception of demand/supply mismatch is actually questionable for now?


----------



## vicb

*Re: PDN - Paladin Resources*

Have been watching PDN from the fence.
I am looking for an entry point in PDN but waiting for a change in trend, maybe a little while.


----------



## shag

*Re: PDN - Paladin Resources*

i'm in for even more. too scared will miss out.
hope its not the dreaded dead cat syndrome.
the market has taken the deep yellow news positively, dyl up 20 percent!
presume paladin is after economy of scale with amalgamation of some mines and facillities etc.
did people read the report in fn news  re u3o8 futures......

Uranium Weakness Will Ultimately Abate
Deutsche Bank expects further weakness in the U3O8 price in coming months, before longer term supply/demand fundamentals begin to impact once more......

i'm to broke from my paladin ventures to subscribe so thats all i can provide from the article


----------



## shag

*Re: PDN - Paladin Resources*

is this 'the breakout' or is it the dead cat flopping a little?
any comments from the technical guys-a tool i must learn as you guys were rather correct bar a few cents.


----------



## Gundini

*Re: PDN - Paladin Resources*

Definately a breakout on the short term downtrend (2 weeks), but hardly a breakout on the long term trend. That would occur around $8.59 I would suspect.

All in all, I feel a bit sorry for Kennas, as he entered around $5.80, exited around $6.20 due to uncertainty. Then up pops another 50 cents! 

Tough gig these markets...


----------



## Sean K

*Re: PDN - Paladin Resources*



Gundini said:


> All in all, I feel a bit sorry for Kennas, as he entered around $5.80, exited around $6.20 due to uncertainty. Then up pops another 50 cents!



Actually, I bought at 6.04 and sold at 6.15.  Still, I bought quite a few so it paid for dinner.  Was still technically a low probability trade. I was lucky.


----------



## goldensun76

*Re: PDN - Paladin Resources*

Well, I think it can rebound all the way back to $7 it will be very interesting to watch.  I hope this short term bull run will not end around $6.5


----------



## hatrader

*Re: PDN - Paladin Resources*

Hi all,

I'm curious about PDN's quiet involvement with DYL which has been quietly building over the last year....isn't Gillian Swaby the secretary of PDN? and also a director of DYL....something is cooking for the future.

Any thoughts?


----------



## eMark

*Re: PDN - Paladin Resources*

I do not want to jinx myself to early, but PDN appears to holding up quite well considering the black clouds that are hovering over the market today. My guess is that PDN has been beaten into submission so much, that it's already been dealt the massive blows that a lot of other stocks are now experiencing.

I don't care if the stock drops 20-30c. It's a relief that it didn't plunge back into the mid $5 range today, which I was expecting. The day is not over yet though..... 

I hold the stock at a much higher price than it's current SP.


----------



## exgeo

*Re: PDN - Paladin Resources*

I think most of the weak longs have been shaken out of the uranium stocks now. I notice that the larger ones such as PDN, SMM and MTN have buy/sell ratios of 1:2 compared to 1:10 in recent days. They have also failed to set new lows, despite the market turmoil.


----------



## eMark

*Re: PDN - Paladin Resources*



eMark said:


> I do not want to jinx myself to early, but PDN appears to holding up quite well considering the black clouds that are hovering over the market today. My guess is that PDN has been beaten into submission so much, that it's already been dealt the massive blows that a lot of other stocks are now experiencing.
> 
> I don't care if the stock drops 20-30c. It's a relief that it didn't plunge back into the mid $5 range today, which I was expecting. The day is not over yet though.....
> 
> I hold the stock at a much higher price than it's current SP.




Phew! For what it's worth. It held up again in Canada.

PDN.TO

Last Trade: 5.53 
Trade Time: Aug 10 
Change: 0.00 (0.00%) 
Prev Close: 5.53 
Open: 5.42 
Bid: 5.53 
Ask: 5.54
Day's Range: 5.31 - 5.60
Volume: 1,912,524 
Avg Vol (3m): 3,344,450


----------



## Bush Trader

*Re: PDN - Paladin Resources*

Appears to be very quiet on this thread today, is everyone feeling OK.

I thought I would post this, which is an extract from the AEGIS research report I was sent today.  It may ot may not help those of you that are feeling the pressure


Cheers


BT

PS: TradeTech revised weekly spot U308 price down $15 to US$105/lb, one futures contract for the week 50,000 lbs @ US$105. There are market commentators aplenty predicting US$80/lb short term for the metal.


*Paladin Resources
Removal of 30% premium, but we remain
positive on Australian assets*


*Event*
A 30% premium was attached to PDN's valuation (refer to "Initiating
coverage: Let them eat yellowcake!", released on 21/3/07) for a variety
of reasons, including (1) industry consolidation; (2) the company's
dominant Australian market position and its ability to take over
advanced exploration uranium companies; and (3) the material benefit
to PDN if it succeeded in taking over Summit Resources (SMM).
Subsequently, we believe that the market has now valued PDN's
takeover of SMM, and although we think that further industry
consolidation is likely, there is nothing that is immediately apparent.
Likewise, we believe that PDN's market position is being constrained
by various state governments. Hence, we no longer see this premium
as necessary to reflect the company's market value.

*Implications*
PDN is a single commodity focus company, which leaves it susceptible
to uranium price fluctuations. Negative sentiment has been created by
the decline in the spot uranium price, currently US$110/lb U3O8. We
would, however, expect a significant re re-rating of the company if, and
when, various Australian state governments allow the re re-
commencement of uranium mining within their territories and/or if there
was a bid for PDN by Areva. As a result of removing the 30% discount
and updating PDN's holdings in Bigrlyi, Summit Resources and Deep
Yellow, we have lowered our 12- month target by 22% to $7.68 per
share. We maintain our BUY recommendation.

*Investment Opinion*
Economic emergence of China and India means that global energy
consumption will grow around 2% per annum till 2030. Increased
volumes of greenhouse gasses from fossil fuels are providing the
political impetus to support nuclear power as the only viable alternative
that has zero emissions. We expect a number of new reactors to be
ordered this decade. Long lead times in bringing on primary supply and
rapidly depleting secondary stocks mean that PDN will be strongly
supported in the long term.
PDN has commissioned the Langer Heinrich uranium deposit in
Namibia and has gained approval to commence construction of the
Kayelekera uranium deposit in Malawi. The company also has four
other deposits in Australia awaiting state government approval. We
believe that PDN is a solid entry option for those who want to invest in
the high-risk uranium sector.


*Paladin's Australian Resources*
Although PDN has a number of advanced uranium projects in Australia, mining of uranium currently occurs only at existing
mines in the Northern Territory (under Federal jurisdiction) and South Australia. State governments in Western Australia and
Queensland have publicly voiced opposition to uranium mining in their jurisdictions. We believe that this will change, and PDN is
the best- placed Australian uranium company to take advantage of this when it occurs. Many of the personnel have significant
experience in the area of uranium exploration, mining and metallurgy. This is a very important asset, as there has been a two- twodecade
uranium depression and many industry people have since retired. Globally, there is a skills expertise shortage, which
decade will take many years to rectify.
We would expect a significant re- rating of PDN if, and when, various Australian state governments allow the commencement of
uranium mining within their territories. Besides PDN's more publicised uranium projects in Namibia (Langer Heinrich) and
Malawi (Kayelekera), it also has a number of key Australian uranium projects that would, if and when they enter into production,
have a material impact on the company's NPV.


----------



## redandgreen

*Re: PDN - Paladin Resources*

much appreciated Bush Trader

I, like many others, am really feeling the heat on some of my U investments atm.

Wondering whether I should top up......hard to know when this sell-off will end.


----------



## goldensun76

*Re: PDN - Paladin Resources*

I guess the important trigger to make the price go up is the U spot price.  At this stage the sentiment is too low..... I guess we will need to see a U spot price go back into upward trend before we can see a reverse of PDN price.


----------



## rostov

*Re: PDN - Paladin Resources*



goldensun76 said:


> I guess the important trigger to make the price go up is the U spot price.




....



> At this stage the *sentiment* is too low..... I guess we will need to see a U spot price go back into upward trend before we can see a reverse of PDN price.





UxC subscription this morning reveals U308 spot price now US$105, less by US$5 compared to last week. (Note : this will be updated around 72 hours after release to subscribers, as per my last post). Volume this week is 0, with still the same 2 sellers (1x non US seller, 1x DOE) with no buyers biting. That makes 6 weeks of nearly 0 pounds of U305 (well, about 50,000lbs? enough?) at spot prices.

I wrote it this morning elsewhere:



> Very little demand and determined sellers. huge drop in price from US$136 from seven weeks ago still has not generated new interest in buying until buyers are convinced price drop has hit support.
> 
> Term activity is moderate, physical forwards market still slow. Only the futures market activity has picked up. Open interest end of last week = 224 contracts, this week new contracts = 158. Settlement prices / Period:
> 
> * $109. Dec 07
> * $99. Jan - Mar 08
> * $103. Apr - Jun 08
> * $111. Jul - Dec 08
> 
> Volume for closed (confirmed) contracts mostly in the Dec 2007 of $109. Only 1 closed contract in Jan (1 out of 42) at $99. All other months all contracts open.
> 
> Production all around the world has been suffering (PDN, Uranium One, Rio, Areva, Cameco, ERA, BHP), and with little buying demand.....
> 
> Interestingly projected 2007 worldwide production came up. Region / U308 (millions) 2006 / U308 07 / % change:
> 
> * Africa / 18.3 / 19.9 / 9.0%
> * Australia / 19.7 / 22.2 / 12.7%
> * Canada / 25.6 / 25.6 / -0.1%
> * Kazakhstan / 13.7 / 18.0 / 31.4%
> * Russia / 9.0 / 9.4 / 4.0%
> * USA / 4.4 / 4.5 / 2.3%
> * Uzbekistan / 5.9 / 6.0 / 2.0%
> * Other / 6.4 / 6.5 / 0.5%
> * Total / 103.1 / 112.1 / 8.8%.
> 
> (Opinion) Long term fundamentals here folks. Don't think it's wise for CFD or margin trading here. DYOR thanks.





Season or not, the price pressure downwards is one factor. Production being lower than expected all around the world (not much) but still substantially short of _long_ term demand is another YET where's the current short / medium term demand? The futures are more exciting, but their closing prices have had a 1 (out of 42) contract done at US$99.

This will really put away a lot of short/daily termers and put long term holders to the test.


----------



## Gundini

*Re: PDN - Paladin Resources*



kennas said:


> Thanks Kauri. Starting to look a little bit more realistic to me too, but oooooo, there's some panicky punters out there.  If it manages $5.50 I won't be able to help myself.




Well I couldn't help myself at $5.50, just seems very reasonable for a long term entry. If it gets to $5.33, I'll pick up the other half of my parcel...


----------



## Kauri

*Re: PDN - Paladin Resources*

With todays price action (not on my charts yet) she seems to be approaching the typical W(2) area, but by my E/W it could still fall to around the $4 region..  ..
 Cheers
....Kauri


----------



## Gundini

*Re: PDN - Paladin Resources*



Kauri said:


> With todays price action (not on my charts yet) she seems to be approaching the typical W(2) area, but by my E/W it could still fall to around the $4 region..  ..
> Cheers
> ....Kauri




The Daily chart definately suggests $4 is not out of the question, although this price is rediculous considering the price of Uranium, the demand for Uranium, and PDN Uranium making machine.

If Areva doesn't snap up PDN with SMM at $4, I'll do a nudie run across the Harbour Bridge!

Having said that, I'm gunna unpack the ute and make some room for my $4 PDN stock...


----------



## CanOz

*Re: PDN - Paladin Resources*



Gundini said:


> The Daily chart definately suggests $4 is not out of the question, although this price is rediculous considering the price of Uranium, the demand for Uranium, and PDN Uranium making machine.
> 
> If Areva doesn't snap up PDN with SMM at $4, I'll do a nudie run across the Harbour Bridge!
> 
> Having said that, I'm gunna unpack the ute and make some room for my $4 PDN stock...




I'm no expert here, but given the credit crunch, why would anyone expect any large takeovers to happen?

Cheers,


----------



## Gundini

*Re: PDN - Paladin Resources*



CanOz said:


> I'm no expert here, but given the credit crunch, why would anyone expect any large takeovers to happen?
> 
> Cheers,




Why? 

Areva has a market cap of 20 Billion Euro's.

Each share trades at 694 Euro.

Areva is the worlds leading company in nuclear energy. It is the only company with a presence in each industrial activity linked to nuclear energy: mining, chemistry, enrichment, combustibles, services, engineering, nuclear propulsion and reactors, treatment, recycling, stabilization, and dismantling. Areva offers technological solutions for CO2 free energy.

Worldwide, the Areva group has an industrial presence in 40 countries and its commercial network reaches more than 100 countries. It employs 58,000 people for a consolidated sales revenue of â‚¬10.863 billion.[2] In 2006, Fortune Magazine reported that Areva was the Most Admired Global Energy Company.[3]

In the USA, Areva is present in 40 locations across 20 states and employs 5,000 people. Areva supplies network products to two-thirds of all US utilities. Moreover, Areva was ranked No 1 US supplier in nuclear energy products and services, in Energy Management Systems and in Energy Market Systems.

In June 2007, Areva announced plans to acquire the African Uranium mining company UraMin for a final price of about 2.5 billion USD. This move further beefs up Areva's nuclear business, and Areva plans to increase production to 9 million tons of Yellowcake by 2012. 

Press release:
July 31, 2007
Areva website

Successful takeover bid of AREVA over UraMin

AREVA announces it has taken over control of the mining company UraMin. At the expiry of the friendly offer launched on June 25, 2007 the shares tendered to its offer allow AREVA to hold approximately 92.93% of the UraMin share capital*. 

AREVA's offer (US$7.75 per UraMin share) values UraMin at more than US$2.5 billion for 100% of its share capital*. 

The deposits identified by UraMin in South Africa, Namibia and the Central African Republic should result in an annual production of more than 7,000 tons of uranium after 2012. The commissioning of these projects will also enable AREVA to further diversify its production resources to secure its customers' uranium supplies over the long-term. 

AREVA intends to integrate UraMin as quickly as possible in order to optimise synergies with its existing mining activities and allow the company to develop its full potential. 

For Anne Lauvergeon, CEO of AREVA: “the integration of UraMin into AREVA's Mining business unit constitutes a major step in the group's ambitious plan to increase its uranium production. It further strengthens the ability of AREVA to provide its customers with long-term secured uranium supplies as part of innovative commercial offers covering the entire nuclear cycle.” 

The money Areva paid for UraMin company is roughly the same as PDN's market cap. Take $1.50 per share off the current PDN price would equate to a very reasonable value pick up at $4 AUD per share.

Considering Areva's ambitious plans to increase uranium production, and PDN, together with SMM resources, I would think it only reasonable that a cash cow/cashed up company like Areva would have their sights firmly set in the direction of PDN. Areva already owns 10% of SMM...


----------



## Bush Trader

*Re: PDN - Paladin Resources*



CanOz said:


> I'm no expert here, but given the credit crunch, why would anyone expect any large takeovers to happen?
> 
> Cheers,




I agree wholely, nobody will be game to talk M&A till the level of the "credit crisis" is fully apparent.  Especially with the fact that U308 market commentators are predicting US$80/lb in the short term.  I think we will see further shake outs.  I would have thought at $5.50 those bargain hunters that bought in on the 2nd recovery above $6.00 would be "stopping out" 8% plus.   I'm still in at 8.15 and that not 8:15am unfortunately.  I havn't sold anything yet, nor purchased either.  How long before this stock has it's leverage % reduced on the margin lending lists?

Good luck to all punters

Cheers


BT


----------



## eMark

*Re: PDN - Paladin Resources*

What do you think would be a fair and reasonable price for PDN shares if it beacme the target of a takeover? Keeping in mind a few weeks ago when there were rumours flying around, the stock shot up from $8.20 to $8.88 (when yours truly got caught up the moment) 

How do you work it out when the stock is dropping in big clumps in todays climate?



Gundini said:


> Why?
> 
> Areva has a market cap of 20 Billion Euro's.
> 
> Each share trades at 694 Euro.
> 
> Areva is the worlds leading company in nuclear energy. It is the only company with a presence in each industrial activity linked to nuclear energy: mining, chemistry, enrichment, combustibles, services, engineering, nuclear propulsion and reactors, treatment, recycling, stabilization, and dismantling. Areva offers technological solutions for CO2 free energy.
> 
> Worldwide, the Areva group has an industrial presence in 40 countries and its commercial network reaches more than 100 countries. It employs 58,000 people for a consolidated sales revenue of â‚¬10.863 billion.[2] In 2006, Fortune Magazine reported that Areva was the Most Admired Global Energy Company.[3]
> 
> In the USA, Areva is present in 40 locations across 20 states and employs 5,000 people. Areva supplies network products to two-thirds of all US utilities. Moreover, Areva was ranked No 1 US supplier in nuclear energy products and services, in Energy Management Systems and in Energy Market Systems.
> 
> In June 2007, Areva announced plans to acquire the African Uranium mining company UraMin for a final price of about 2.5 billion USD. This move further beefs up Areva's nuclear business, and Areva plans to increase production to 9 million tons of Yellowcake by 2012.
> 
> Press release:
> July 31, 2007
> Areva website
> 
> Successful takeover bid of AREVA over UraMin
> 
> AREVA announces it has taken over control of the mining company UraMin. At the expiry of the friendly offer launched on June 25, 2007 the shares tendered to its offer allow AREVA to hold approximately 92.93% of the UraMin share capital*.
> 
> AREVA's offer (US$7.75 per UraMin share) values UraMin at more than US$2.5 billion for 100% of its share capital*.
> 
> The deposits identified by UraMin in South Africa, Namibia and the Central African Republic should result in an annual production of more than 7,000 tons of uranium after 2012. The commissioning of these projects will also enable AREVA to further diversify its production resources to secure its customers' uranium supplies over the long-term.
> 
> AREVA intends to integrate UraMin as quickly as possible in order to optimise synergies with its existing mining activities and allow the company to develop its full potential.
> 
> For Anne Lauvergeon, CEO of AREVA: “the integration of UraMin into AREVA's Mining business unit constitutes a major step in the group's ambitious plan to increase its uranium production. It further strengthens the ability of AREVA to provide its customers with long-term secured uranium supplies as part of innovative commercial offers covering the entire nuclear cycle.”
> 
> The money Areva paid for UraMin company is roughly the same as PDN's market cap. Take $1.50 per share off the current PDN price would equate to a very reasonable value pick up at $4 AUD per share.
> 
> Considering Areva's ambitious plans to increase uranium production, and PDN, together with SMM resources, I would think it only reasonable that a cash cow/cashed up company like Areva would have their sights firmly set in the direction of PDN. Areva already owns 10% of SMM...


----------



## Bush Trader

*Re: PDN - Paladin Resources*



eMark said:


> What do you think would be a fair and reasonable price for PDN shares if it beacme the target of a takeover? Keeping in mind a few weeks ago when there were rumours flying around, the stock shot up from $8.20 to $8.88 (when yours truly got caught up the moment)
> 
> How do you work it out when the stock is dropping in big clumps in todays climate?




In the past as I've done with the weather, wool, wheat & cattle markets, a little analysis and a lot of........

*Gut Feel*

The deeper the feeling in the gut.....  the more likely it is to be **** 

I know this dosen't help, however I think it is the only true answer with the current market sentiment.

Don't try to pick bottoms you will never win, my old man once said to be to be counter cyclical, however it is always better to buy a stock cheap on an uptrend than potentially dear on a downtrend.

Cheers


BT


----------



## eMark

*Re: PDN - Paladin Resources*



Bush Trader said:


> In the past as I've done with the weather, wool, wheat & cattle markets, a little analysis and a lot of........
> 
> *Gut Feel*
> 
> The deeper the feeling in the gut.....  the more likely it is to be ****
> 
> I know this dosen't help, however I think it is the only true answer with the current market sentiment.
> 
> Don't try to pick bottoms you will never win, my old man once said to be to be counter cyclical, however it is always better to buy a stock cheap on an uptrend than potentially dear on a downtrend.
> 
> Cheers
> 
> 
> BT




I understand your logic from a punters point of view, but I was asking the question from say Areva's point of view. What would be a fair and reasonable offer for PDN's shares in a takeover.


----------



## Bush Trader

*Re: PDN - Paladin Resources*

SorryeMark  I missunderstood

Extract from the AGEIS report  divide by shares issued & allow for options to be excercised,  calculate NPV, add exploration upside, discount for risk, add takeover premium

                            2006A  2007F    2008        2009
Shareholders equity 124.7    258.5   341.1        475.6

Cheers


BT


----------



## eMark

*Re: PDN - Paladin Resources*



Bush Trader said:


> SorryeMark  I missunderstood
> 
> Extract from the AGEIS report  divide by shares issued & allow for options to be excercised,  calculate NPV, add exploration upside, discount for risk, add takeover premium
> 
> 2006A  2007F    2008        2009
> Shareholders equity 124.7    258.5   341.1        475.6
> 
> Cheers
> 
> 
> BT




Thanks Bush Trader. 

Haven't quite got to the point of understanding, re working with the numbers supplied to determine my answer. Fancy a try?


----------



## drmb

*Re: PDN - Paladin Resources*

Will have to wait til next year according to article:-

URANIUM MARKETS & STOCKS 
Uranium prices, and stocks, bleed again
The uranium spot price has now declined by $31/pound in just 7 weeks; stocks are down by some 40%.

Author: Barry Sergeant
Posted:  Tuesday , 14 Aug 2007 

JOHANNESBURG -  

The uranium spot price fell $5/pound in the past week, to $105/pound, according to Ux Consultants, and by $15/pound according to TradeTech, also to $105/pound. The uranium spot price has now declined $31/pound in just seven weeks, leaving a trail of bloodied stocks in its wake.

Listed uranium stocks have declined by a rough average of 40% in the past two months. Cameco (CCO.T, C$15.99 a share), the market leader, is down just over 30%. The stock price for Paladin (PDN.AX, A$3.66) has fallen by 45%, while losses for developers have been far more severe; Forsys (FSY.T, C$0.35), for example, is off by 60%.

According to a market roundup by analysts at RBC Capital Markets, Ux has highlighted where the market stands in terms of production at mid-year, compared to forecasts; annual production is now expected to be 112m pounds, down from 117m pounds previously. Technical difficulties and delays were responsible for the majority of lower production volumes in the first half of 2007.

While the price decline was smaller this week compared to prior weeks, Ux cautions that this does not indicate that the market is near bottom. Ux believes that current weakness in the spot price is due to illiquidity in the current market. Looking forward, Ux forecasts that the price is very vulnerable to continued weakness, with "small" demand being met by motivated sellers.

Ux and TradeTech have both maintained long-term price forecasts at $95/pound. RBCCM believes that the uranium market "will be weak until late-September to early-October, trading sideways to down with support at the $95-100/pound level". The analysts believe that the spot market could return to a deficit in the first half of 2008, "which should result in a strengthening spot market".


----------



## philby3

*Re: PDN - Paladin Resources*

Early morning trade:

Paladin Resources Limited (PDN) 
Date Time Price ($) Quantity Value ($) Conditions 
16-08-2007 09:09 AM $5.900 70000 $413,000.000 Overseas Trade,Crossed 
16-08-2007 08:18 AM $5.694 1100000 $6,263,400.000 Late Trade,Crossed


----------



## eMark

*Re: PDN - Paladin Resources*

Another Rambling Comment - Why not? after today 

It feels like the rest of the market is finally playing catch up with PDN's % drop the past few weeks. Fairs fair, feels like a more even playing field now.


----------



## Bush Trader

*Re: PDN - Paladin Resources*



eMark said:


> Another Rambling Comment - Why not? after today
> 
> .




Be patient grasshopper.  Wait for the dust to wash of the weeds before you spray them.  Now that a rambling comment!


----------



## voigtstr

*Re: PDN - Paladin Resources*

Greetings.

I'm interested in buying some PDN at some stage over the next few weeks, but am trying to determine an appropriate buy signal. It looks like there is a bit of a bollinger squeeze going on, but who's to say the stock wont be breaking downwards rather than upwards. Any tips for newbie please?

Cheers
the voigtstr


----------



## rogue_investor

*Re: PDN - Paladin Resources*

Uranium stocks are tracking lower with the uranium spot price.  We're at a level now in line with many price forecasts so it should become more about company performance rather than spot price from here.

PDN turned in quite a hefty loss for the last financial year but according to the CEO today on ABC's Inside Business they have turned the corner on the Namibia plant and will be producing in 2008.

Given the company's position as an Aussie leader and the recent govt deals with India and Russia, you would have to think the company is in a strong position.

If the market remains buoyant I wouldn't expect the share price to take much of a downturn over the medium term.  We are still a way off the $10 highs but if uranium reaches the $138/lb mark again (as PDN CEO expects it will) then that share price would be cheap for a major supplier.


----------



## voigtstr

*Re: PDN - Paladin Resources*

Thanks Rogue,
which companies are also taking uranium out of the ground already...................?


----------



## chansw

*Re: PDN - Paladin Resources*

*Uranium oversupply not expected*

http://www.news.com.au/business/story/0,23636,22391542-14334,00.html

PALADIN Resources says it does not expect an over supply of uranium to come on to the market, after the US President George W Bush expressed his pro-nuclear stance last week.

John Borshoff, the chief executive of Paladin (ppx.ASX:Quote,News), said yesterday there was “definitely not'' an over-supply of uranium about to saturate the market despite a recent fall in its price. 

He told ABC TV the increase in uranium price would continue on its upward path. 

“I think the dynamic of the volatility is a five-year, almost continuous rise,'' he said. 

“I foresee it will surpass the peaks within 12 to 15 months.'' 

In the last three years, there had only been a 5 per cent increase in overall production of uranium, and in the next three years, there would be few uranium mines coming on board, he said. 

It comes after the Mr Bush last week expressed his stance as pro-nuclear, saying if one cared about greenhouse gases that they would be in favour of nuclear power. 

Mr Borshoff said it had taken a long time for the US to become clearly pro-nuclear. 

“After Three-Mile Island and Chernobyl, the whole US nuclear industry just retracted,'' he said. 

“The industry at large always said that if only the US would indicate to grow it's industry it would be certainly two swallows make spring. 

“It's basically a declaration that all world economies are fully supportive of (uranium).'' 

Paladin purchased some reserves in Queensland via the $1.16 billion takeover of Summit resources, saying it was “certain'' it would be mining uranium out of Australia. 

“As sure as today is Sunday, we will be mining uranium out of Australia, out of the states of Queensland and Western Australia,'' he said. 

“It is one of those inevitabilities that you cannot have a whole world starving in the biggest, hugest energy crisis that's ever faced civilization, and we're exporting as much coal and gas as one likes and then making some statement about uranium when the federal Labor is saying that this has to stop. 

“I think it's just a matter of time and a bit of sense coming back into the system.'' 

Mr Borshoff also commented on the company's share price, saying it would bounce and respond to any threat from predators. 

“We believe there is an opportunity to come out of this huge vacuum that was caused where essentially the industry was asleep at the wheel for 20 years, and if Paladin does get absorbed into somebody else, I think it would be a shame for the supply industry,'' he said. 

In connection to future acquisitions, he said, the company had always specified it wanted a more global footprint. 

“That is in keeping with our whole strategy that we will probably postpone for a little while. 

“But we are always on the lookout for opportunities, particularly how we see the market and I don't believe the market will be in supply balance for 10 to 20 years.'' 

The company's Heinrich mine in Nambia had suffered some bad luck on vital pieces of equipment, sparking a five-month delay, but was on track to be at full production next year. 

“We believe we will be at full production early 2008 and, essentially, we aren't that worried in terms of mid-term.''


----------



## alankew

*Re: PDN - Paladin Resources*

What going on with this today,up 40c or so at the moment.My own personal feeling is that U stocks seem to be coming back into play.Also possible that someone is lining this up but volume is pretty normal


----------



## ands

*Re: PDN - Paladin Resources*

Maybe everyone is dumping Marathon Resources after their Mt Gee resource downgrade, and are coming to a real Uranium Company in the name of Paladin Resources!


----------



## rogue_investor

*Re: PDN - Paladin Resources*



voigtstr said:


> Thanks Rogue,
> which companies are also taking uranium out of the ground already...................?




Difficult to get all details but there aren't many.  40% of the world's supply came from Cameco, BHP, RIO & ERA last year. Uranuim One (unlisted) also a major player.. who knows what could happen there.

Getting ura out of the ground is not a mugs game from what I read and many of the explorers are bandwagoners.

PDN up 10% in the last week or so and I don't think it will end there.  Spot price stable and 2008 just around the corner when the bucks start rolling in.


----------



## Kauri

*Re: PDN - Paladin Resources*

It may not be the best set-up going around but is the way I am trading PDN at the moment...
 Cheers
.........Kauri


----------



## voigtstr

*Re: PDN - Paladin Resources*

Took the plunge on pdn for about $1200 worth.  (I'll save up more for investing on blue chips (2-3k$ parcels))

Be interesting to see if the shares take off next year when they are actually mining!


----------



## rederob

*Re: PDN - Paladin Resources*



voigtstr said:


> Be interesting to see if the shares take off next year when they are actually mining!



Ummmm....
They have been mining most of this year.
I hope your buying strategy is better than your understanding of the companies you buy.


----------



## voigtstr

*Re: PDN - Paladin Resources*

I meant when the new mine starts production that they are ramping up for in early 2008 (the one that got delayed)(it starts with K and my mind refuses to hold the letters, and form them into a pronounable name)


----------



## Kauri

*Re: PDN - Paladin Resources*

Have closed out the short-term portion of this trade, leaving the long -term portion free-carried plus.... the strong selling yesterday and again-so far today- doesn't inspire me....
 Cheers
........Kauri


----------



## shag

*Re: PDN - Paladin Resources*



Kauri said:


> Have closed out the short-term portion of this trade, leaving the long -term portion free-carried plus.... the strong selling yesterday and again-so far today- doesn't inspire me....
> Cheers
> ........Kauri




whats wrong with today kauri? low volume or what
how can u tell strong selling, surely it takes buyers and sellers
sorry to ask questions, just want to leasrn basics on tech trading
cheers shag


----------



## rogue_investor

*Re: PDN - Paladin Resources*



rederob said:


> Ummmm....
> They have been mining most of this year.
> I hope your buying strategy is better than your understanding of the companies you buy.




redenob, which mines have they been mining all year, for what contracts and at what price??  this would help but who knows?


----------



## voigtstr

*Re: PDN - Paladin Resources*

the fat prophets weekly teaser email mentions this:



> A High Quality Uranium Situation
> •	Fat Prophets Members will be aware that we have been very careful with our uranium recommendations. Despite there being dozens of uranium hopefuls quoted on the Australian Stock Exchange, we have recommended only three, one of which was Paladin Resources.
> •	We maintain our position that investment in high-quality uranium situations will provide much higher returns for Members than riskier companies.
> •	We recently had the opportunity to travel all the way to Namibia to kick the tyres of one of our other favourite uranium companies. It's this sort of level of research, time, dedication, experience and expertise that we think will ultimately help us pick the uranium winners of today and tomorrow.
> •	Here are some of the things we learnt from our trip to Namibia and our favoured uranium stock…
> o	We were able to gain an even better appreciation of their flagship uranium project's enormous resource potential, and a clear understanding of how the company intends to develop the deposit.
> o	We came away with a better understanding of Namibia. The country is safe from a personal security point of view and secure from a sovereign risk and tenure perspective. In fact, it ranks above Australia in terms of the most secure international destinations for investment.
> o	On our site visit we saw the current drilling program in action and met with and spoke to the company's Managing Director, who confirmed everything was on schedule.
> o	In summary, we came away tremendously impressed with the quality of the company's exploration work so far, and a true perspective of the sheer enormity of the resource potential of its uranium deposit.
> •	The share price is down 47% from its recent high, yet Fat Prophets Members who bought the shares when we first recommended them will still be sitting on a very impressive 193% profit.
> •	But we think that's only the beginning, and only two weeks ago we told Members we are monitoring the stock closely in the coming weeks for an appropriate buying opportunity. With the shares falling 5% on Monday alone, it looks like that opportunity may be coming sooner rather than later.
> Sign up today to find out the name of this Namibian uranium miner, and to get access to the 20 or more current buy recommendations in the Fat Prophets Australasian AND Fat Prophets Mining & Resource Reports. I understand I'll get an instant discount of $200, AND get a total of 6 months extra absolutely FREE.
> Start Now




Does anyone know which company they are talking about? (without charging me $1190 to find out)


----------



## Sean K

*Re: PDN - Paladin Resources*



voigtstr said:


> the fat prophets weekly teaser email mentions this:
> 
> Does anyone know which company they are talking about? (without charging me $1190 to find out)



BMN. I'm happy for a $100 fee for that information voigtstr. Send cheque to the 'buy kennas a yacht fund', C/- ASF. Cheers!


----------



## rogue_investor

*Re: PDN - Paladin Resources*

Phat Prophets... what a laugh!!  we went to Namibia and found it to be safe.  oh great... I walked down George St and thought it was very friendly too.. think I'll buy some property in Redfern now.  Give me a break!!   What sort of analysis is that?  The stock's a winner you burke brains..  I think I'll stick to google thanks.


----------



## voigtstr

*Re: PDN - Paladin Resources*

Thanks guys, I will avoid the hype and not buy into Fat Prophets. As long as you guys dont mind me asking noobie questions a fair bit. I've taken a long position on PDN. We'll see how they go over the course of next year.


----------



## drmb

*Re: PDN - Paladin Resources*



rogue_investor said:


> Phat Prophets... what a laugh!!  we went to Namibia and found it to be safe.  oh great... I walked down George St and thought it was very friendly too.. think I'll buy some property in Redfern now.  Give me a break!!   What sort of analysis is that?  The stock's a winner you burke brains..  I think I'll stick to google thanks.




Voigstr, noobie questions are fine. FP did a bit more than the above, read for yourself what they did in Namibia at http://www.bannermanresources.com.au/docs/2007/BMN_Fat_Prophets20070829.pdf and the Far East Cap report http://www.bannermanresources.com.au/docs/2007/BMN20070903.pdf

As for PDN, they are a major U producer, price seems to follow 25% U spot, 50% energy, 25% whatever. Be careful with U stocks, they are volatile. But Risk/Reward


----------



## Moneybags

*Re: PDN - Paladin Resources*

I'm positive about PDNs' long term future but in the short term it would be interesting to see if it can push through the upper line of the down trend channel. A lot of punters wont jump back on until an uptrend is confirmed and then I think it will be away again. Of course a rise in the spot would also help.

MB ( holding )


----------



## eMark

*Re: PDN - Paladin Resources*

Hi Money Bags. Where is this upper line of the down trend approximately, so I can watch out for it.


----------



## Nyden

*Re: PDN - Paladin Resources*



Moneybags said:


> I'm positive about PDNs' long term future but in the short term it would be interesting to see if it can push through the upper line of the down trend channel. A lot of punters wont jump back on until an uptrend is confirmed and then I think it will be away again. Of course a rise in the spot would also help.
> 
> MB ( holding )




I sold out of my position today at a small loss, PDN causes me more stress than anything else! Might look to buy back in a few months though.

I fear the SP might not see a whole lot of positive action for some time,
watch it climb to 8c now


----------



## Moneybags

*Re: PDN - Paladin Resources*



eMark said:


> Hi Money Bags. Where is this upper line of the down trend approximately, so I can watch out for it.




Sorry emark, just saw your post. If you have a gander at PDNs' chart and draw a line touching the peaks of the downtrend you will see we are round about there a few days back. Watching with interest to see how SP goes over next few weeks.

MB


----------



## Moneybags

*Re: PDN - Paladin Resources*



Nyden said:


> I sold out of my position today at a small loss, PDN causes me more stress than anything else! Might look to buy back in a few months though.
> 
> *I fear the SP might not see a whole lot of positive action for some time,
> watch it climb to 8c now :banghead*:




If you are feeling negative best to be out in my opinion. I held thru this correction so in my book the way PDN is going at the moment is pretty good.

mb


----------



## Nyden

*Re: PDN - Paladin Resources*



Moneybags said:


> If you are feeling negative best to be out in my opinion. I held thru this correction so in my book the way PDN is going at the moment is pretty good.
> 
> mb





Oops! I've been in the spec market too long  I said 8c, I obviously mean $8!

Yes, I've felt rather negative with regards to PDN for a while - I bought in at the high 8s; watched it go over 10 - and  then all the way back down to 5! 

Well, I think uranium is just out of flavour - long term I do agree, it's a fantastic stock, and I might just re-enter soon enough with a fresh slate


----------



## Nyden

*Re: PDN - Paladin Resources*



Nyden said:


> Oops! I've been in the spec market too long  I said 8c, I obviously mean $8!
> 
> Yes, I've felt rather negative with regards to PDN for a while - I bought in at the high 8s; watched it go over 10 - and  then all the way back down to 5!
> 
> Well, I think uranium is just out of flavour - long term I do agree, it's a fantastic stock, and I might just re-enter soon enough with a fresh slate





Well, isn't that just my luck!  Up 5% already 
Oh Well, that's certainly a kick in the pants


----------



## Kauri

*Re: PDN - Paladin Resources*

FWIW the way I am trading in PDN ATM.. sold my STH's back at the start of (minor W4)?.. still with theLTH's looking for the (Intermediate W3)?..
 Cheers
..........Kauri


----------



## panikhide

*Re: PDN - Paladin Resources*



Nyden said:


> Oops! I've been in the spec market too long  I said 8c, I obviously mean $8!
> 
> Yes, I've felt rather negative with regards to PDN for a while - I bought in at the high 8s; watched it go over 10 - and  then all the way back down to 5!
> 
> Well, I think uranium is just out of flavour - long term I do agree, it's a fantastic stock, and I might just re-enter soon enough with a fresh slate




You have been in the spec market too long - if you had bought in 4 - 5 years ago (not that I did) you could have picked PDN up for 8 cents. I have bought in around $5, $7, $9 and $10, not in that order, and am still wondering where it will be in 5 years time. I think that if you can hold on for extended periods and ignore the ups and downs you can make some serious money.


----------



## drmb

*Re: PDN - Paladin Resources*



Nyden said:


> Well, isn't that just my luck!  Up 5% already  Oh Well, that's certainly a kick in the pants




Well I can feel your pain, I've done the same with other stocks, eg TZL.  When I decided to buy pdn and  other U stocks last year (now only holding BMN and PDN) I decided to hold long, I have been burnt too with other stocks, selling early only to see sp go up.

I now try to remember W Buffett, "Find a good stock and hold on to it for ever", or "The sharemarket is a mechanism to transfer money from the impatient to the patient." 

I don't have chart skills but seems to me PDN has MACD well and truely crossed, RSI heading up, and it's just about to touch the 200 MA. All good news for me holding long.


----------



## Nyden

*Re: PDN - Paladin Resources*



drmb said:


> Well I can feel your pain, I've done the same with other stocks, eg TZL.  When I decided to buy pdn and  other U stocks last year (now only holding BMN and PDN) I decided to hold long, I have been burnt too with other stocks, selling early only to see sp go up.
> 
> I now try to remember W Buffett, "Find a good stock and hold on to it for ever", or "The sharemarket is a mechanism to transfer money from the impatient to the patient."
> 
> I don't have chart skills but seems to me PDN has MACD well and truely crossed, RSI heading up, and it's just about to touch the 200 MA. All good news for me holding long.





All very true - however, easier said than done I suppose - I am human, & I got sick & tired of seeing PDN just sit there in the red on my portfolio, like a dog : The lack of dividends are a bit of a downer as well.

Well, I certainly do believe it has future long term potential, and that may be sooner than later - I just need to get out of the negative mindset first, before I re-enter!


----------



## Moneybags

*Re: PDN - Paladin Resources*



Nyden said:


> All very true - however, easier said than done I suppose - I am human, & I got sick & tired of seeing PDN just sit there in the red on my portfolio, like a dog : The lack of dividends are a bit of a downer as well.
> 
> Well, I certainly do believe it has future long term potential, and that may be sooner than later - I just need to get out of the negative mindset first, before I re-enter!




Hey Nyden, we are all human after all....but if ya gonna throw the dog term around at least throw it at a worthy share such as INL ....why on earth did I buy that sucker. 

Believe me PDN is not a dog just that the SP has suffered at the hands of the U spot price as have most other U stocks. PDN looking very good at the moment in my eyes.

MB


----------



## Nyden

*Re: PDN - Paladin Resources*



Moneybags said:


> Hey Nyden, we are all human after all....but if ya gonna throw the dog term around at least throw it at a worthy share such as INL ....why on earth did I buy that sucker.
> 
> Believe me PDN is not a dog just that the SP has suffered at the hands of the U spot price as have most other U stocks. PDN looking very good at the moment in my eyes.
> 
> MB




Afternoon MB,

I did say, *like* a dog, with a : in front of it - implying humour! My attempts at humour do generally tend to fail though. 
I too believe PDN is a great stock, I've just been made bitter by it's recent performance is all .

Nyden


----------



## drmb

*Re: PDN - Paladin Resources*



Nyden said:


> Afternoon MB, I did say, *like* a dog, with a : in front of it - implying humour! My attempts at humour do generally tend to fail though.  I too believe PDN is a great stock, I've just been made bitter by it's recent performance is all . Nyden




Understood, : I never thought pdn a dog but INL, yes, I agree with that. In fact I might make a post or start a new thread on dog stocks I have known! I'd nominate MOS, and VCR to INL! Cheers


----------



## voigtstr

*Re: PDN - Paladin Resources*

How do they determine when to start paying dividends? Will it be after the K**** mine site is up and running?


----------



## Kauri

*Re: PDN - Paladin Resources*

Am now looking for an intermediate W4 around the $7.00 mark before powering on to a W5 ?? maybe..   ..
  Cheers
..........Kauri


----------



## roland

*Re: PDN - Paladin Resources*

So what is really wrong with this stock - I keep following it down, and it keeps going down. Luckily I pull some some profits on the rare occassions it makes a bit of headwind. Ho hum ...


----------



## shag

*Re: PDN - Paladin Resources*



roland said:


> So what is really wrong with this stock - I keep following it down, and it keeps going down. Luckily I pull some some profits on the rare occassions it makes a bit of headwind. Ho hum ...




Some downward pressure might be BHPs large upgrade to olympic dam, thus a lot more uranium on market in longer future.


----------



## eMark

*Re: PDN - Paladin Resources*



roland said:


> So what is really wrong with this stock - I keep following it down, and it keeps going down. Luckily I pull some some profits on the rare occassions it makes a bit of headwind. Ho hum ...




A few simple reasons

1. Ux price down a further $10
2. It's run pretty hard over the last 2 weeks, so some inevitable profit taking.
3. Market is at top again, general jitters creeping back in.

It appears to be following Kauri's chart pretty well.


----------



## roland

*Re: PDN - Paladin Resources*

Actually you are quite right - Kauri's chart does ease the nerves and puts it into perpective. Not all doom and gloom for PDN after all. It's hard not to bash your worst performing stock.


----------



## Kauri

*Re: PDN - Paladin Resources*

If she breaks down through the W1 high of $6.60 made on the 23rd of August the pattern I have been following will be invalid..   
 Cheers
..........Kauri


----------



## eMark

*Re: PDN - Paladin Resources*



Kauri said:


> If she breaks down through the W1 high of $6.60 made on the 23rd of August the pattern I have been following will be invalid..
> Cheers
> ..........Kauri




Well it appears to have held for the week. Interesting though it didn't move a lot on Friday considering where the TSX.PDN was the night before. They're usually a dollar apart. Last nights finish for TSX.PDN was 6.27. That with PDN.AX Fridays finish of 6.82 has them only 55c apart. Is that signifigant?

I might stop posting on PDN until I'm convinced there is something REALLY happening.


----------



## roland

*Re: PDN - Paladin Resources*

If it were polite to swear, I'd be doing just that. Is this a buggered stock or what?

On a day where just about everything goes up - PDN falls. What else is new. PDN is bound to give me ulcers.


----------



## Nyden

*Re: PDN - Paladin Resources*



roland said:


> If it were polite to swear, I'd be doing just that. Is this a buggered stock or what?
> 
> On a day where just about everything goes up - PDN falls. What else is new. PDN is bound to give me ulcers.




If you go back a page or 2, you'll see that I sold for that very reason.
I sold at a loss, but - I feel the relief of no longer holding a dud outweighs that.

I officially *am* calling PDN a dog : I don't care what its past performance has been, or what its fundamentals / prospects are - fundamentals don't comfort you when the stock goes down for months at a time.


----------



## voigtstr

*Re: PDN - Paladin Resources*



Nyden said:


> If you go back a page or 2, you'll see that I sold for that very reason.
> I sold at a loss, but - I feel the relief of no longer holding a dud outweighs that.
> 
> I officially *am* calling PDN a dog : I don't care what its past performance has been, or what its fundamentals / prospects are - fundamentals don't comfort you when the stock goes down for months at a time.




Doesnt it mean its simply a better buying opportunity when its low for a while. If the fundamental suggests it should be in the mid teens or higher (just an example) and its sitting on low 7's or high 6's, wouldnt you buy more of them?


----------



## roland

*Re: PDN - Paladin Resources*

Every Dog has it's day, just picked up a few more at 6.61 - at least it brings my average down to a more respectable level.


----------



## voigtstr

*Re: PDN - Paladin Resources*



roland said:


> Every Dog has it's day, just picked up a few more at 6.61 - at least it brings my average down to a more respectable level.




if you dont mind me asking, how big a parcel of shares did you get so that the extra brokerage isnt an issue.

Cheers
Simon


----------



## roland

*Re: PDN - Paladin Resources*



voigtstr said:


> if you dont mind me asking, how big a parcel of shares did you get so that the extra brokerage isnt an issue.
> 
> Cheers
> Simon




I buy 1,000 at a time, run my split to at least $0.25 brokerage is about $0.02 per transaction, so it has to move $0.04 before break even.


----------



## rub92me

*Re: PDN - Paladin Resources*



voigtstr said:


> Doesnt it mean its simply a better buying opportunity when its low for a while. If the fundamental suggests it should be in the mid teens or higher (just an example) and its sitting on low 7's or high 6's, wouldnt you buy more of them?



That depends on what you call low. The last 6 months we have seen a downtrend, with a brief respite in September and now heading down again. If it doesn't hold around $6 then it could well fall back to long term support of $4. I have no idea whether that will happen or not, but on the other hand I don't see any short term reasons why this will all of a sudden turn around now and go back above $10 either.


----------



## Kauri

*Re: PDN - Paladin Resources*

Interesting to see if she moves up into a more complex W4 or even into a W5 from here... or if she moves down again to my stop at 5.59... the volume isn't giving much away yet..
 Cheers
.........Kauri


----------



## roland

*Re: PDN - Paladin Resources*



roland said:


> Every Dog has it's day, just picked up a few more at 6.61 - at least it brings my average down to a more respectable level.




PDN sold yesterday at $7.00, will buy back if it gets below $6.70 again - have a ton above $7.00 mind you


----------



## shag

*Re: PDN - Paladin Resources*

for all its worth our fat profits had another fatawah? on them this week saying they were all good and such. went on about positive clearing of books and same for future production etc etc.
i just looked at the years graph, what a symetric hill. what a dog.
i got a lot of mine from the summit gold takeover too.
if i wasn't so lazy i'd sell the f@#kers.....


----------



## roland

*Re: PDN - Paladin Resources*



shag said:


> for all its worth our fat profits had another fatawah? on them this week saying they were all good and such. went on about positive clearing of books and same for future production etc etc.
> i just looked at the years graph, what a symetric hill. what a dog.
> i got a lot of mine from the summit gold takeover too.
> if i wasn't so lazy i'd sell the f@#kers.....




if FAT said the opposite, the they would look pretty damn silly, since they have been spruking PDN forever - it seems. Uranium as a solution to Climate Change is getting lost amongst the other "Green" solutions.


----------



## shag

*Re: PDN - Paladin Resources*



roland said:


> if FAT said the opposite, the they would look pretty damn silly, since they have been spruking PDN forever - it seems. Uranium as a solution to Climate Change is getting lost amongst the other "Green" solutions.




yes thats true i guess, but bush has been pushing uranium more just recently.
i suspect olympic dam worries some more. i've got some bhp warrants but wish i had more of that and bmn etc rather than pdn. that and agm are my dogs.
the fat profits love gold more from my limited experience with them. 
they need fusion eventually but harness the tidal process, solar, geothermal, wind etc in the meantime with loads of dodgy uranium energy to generate a hydrogen energy system.
i don't like the waste issue with uranium but i'm not quite that ethical presently.


----------



## voigtstr

*Re: PDN - Paladin Resources*

so paladin make a positive announcement (https://invest.etrade.com.au/Quotes...spx?symbol=PDN&tab=ASX Company Announcements#) and the market is marking them down for it? As I write they are at today's current low of 6.720. (we are an hour ahead so the time was 2:43ish)


----------



## roland

*Re: PDN - Paladin Resources*



voigtstr said:


> so paladin make a positive announcement (https://invest.etrade.com.au/Quotes...spx?symbol=PDN&tab=ASX Company Announcements#) and the market is marking them down for it? As I write they are at today's current low of 6.720. (we are an hour ahead so the time was 2:43ish)




yes, most strange - happens a lot, good news, stocks go down, mediocre news, stocks zoom. I have a bid at $6.60


----------



## eMark

*Re: PDN - Paladin Resources*

TSX.PDN at close OCT 12 2007

Last Trade: 6.25 
Trade Time: Oct 12 
Change:  +0.30 (5.04%) 
Prev Close: 5.95 
Open: 5.96 
Bid: 6.25 
Ask: 6.26


----------



## Fab

*Re: PDN - Paladin Resources*

Wow that is great. That is exactly what the doctor prescribed for PDN an increase in the uranium spot price and up we go.  Hopefully that will provide a floor to the U spot price and then PDN will keep going up. I believe that when their mine teething issues are over and they are in full production from beginning of next year we will see their SP fall as a buying opportunities. Still one of the best U play in my opinion


----------



## jman2007

*Re: PDN - Paladin Resources*



Fab said:


> Wow that is great. That is exactly what the doctor prescribed for PDN an increase in the uranium spot price and up we go.  Hopefully that will provide a floor to the U spot price and then PDN will keep going up. I believe that when their mine teething issues are over and they are in full production from beginning of next year we will see their SP fall as a buying opportunities. Still one of the best U play in my opinion




Hi all,

New to this thread, although I would have thought that if PDN sort out their operational issues coupled with an increase in the U spot price, this would have a positive effect on their sp?  Just thought I'd put my  in!
I don't hold atm.

Cheers
jman2007


----------



## JimBob

*Re: PDN - Paladin Resources*

I had my stop-loss set at $6.75, which Paladin just touched on Friday so I bailed out.  Looks like I may have jumped ship a little early judging from Friday's close in Canada.


----------



## shag

*Re: PDN - Paladin Resources*

seems like paladin is doing something, anyone with a guess
i do know toroto was up 30c odd but seems to be more......to me anyway.
i checked the spot and didn't seem to have risen, just held am i out of date
i know its likely bottomed out...


----------



## roland

*Re: PDN - Paladin Resources*



shag said:


> seems like paladin is doing something, anyone with a guess
> i do know toroto was up 30c odd but seems to be more......to me anyway.
> i checked the spot and didn't seem to have risen, just held am i out of date
> i know its likely bottomed out...




Hi, I believe that Paladin has been added to a fund manager's portfolio in it's boutique energy stock offerings. At least something like that ... read it here: http://biz.yahoo.com/seekingalpha/070916/47243_id.html?.v=1


----------



## Kauri

*Re: PDN - Paladin Resources*

Have moved my stop up to the last swing low.. either a minor W2 or the c leg of the W4.... if all goes to plan am looking in the low $8's for the W5.
  Cheers
 ..........Kauri


----------



## Fab

*Re: PDN - Paladin Resources*



Kauri said:


> Have moved my stop up to the last swing low.. either a minor W2 or the c leg of the W4.... if all goes to plan am looking in the low $8's for the W5.
> Cheers
> ..........Kauri




You might get to your stop today. Looking at PDN on the TSX it went up over 6% overnight. On friday it went up over 5% in the TSX and closed yesterday over 8% on the ASX. If the same increase is follow today we should have a jump of PDN of around 10%


----------



## lancer

*Re: PDN - Paladin Resources*



shag said:


> seems like paladin is doing something, anyone with a guess
> i do know toroto was up 30c odd but seems to be more......to me anyway.
> i checked the spot and didn't seem to have risen, just held am i out of date
> i know its likely bottomed out...




Its too early to know if the spot has risen yet. Usually comes out in several hours from now. Unless you have a source besides trade tech or uxc.


----------



## eMark

*Re: PDN - Paladin Resources*



Fab said:


> You might get to your stop today. Looking at PDN on the TSX it went up over 6% overnight. On friday it went up over 5% in the TSX and closed yesterday over 8% on the ASX. If the same increase is follow today we should have a jump of PDN of around 10%




PDN.TSX 15/10/07

Last Trade: 6.63 
Trade Time: 3:59PM ET 
Change: + 0.38 (6.08%) 
Prev Close: 6.25 
Open: 6.55 
Bid: 6.61 
Ask: 6.63


----------



## Miner

*Re: PDN - Paladin Resources*

Folks
Without any comments on uranium future as extracted from ABC news

*Indian-Aust uranium deal put on backburner*
By South Asia correspondent Peter Lloyd

Posted 4 hours 48 minutes ago 

The Prime Minister's hopes to sell uranium to India may have been dashed, with India backing out of its nuclear cooperation deal with the United States.

India's demand for Australian uranium for civilian nuclear power stemmed from a landmark treaty with the Americans for the supply of nuclear technology and fuel in July 2005. 

The agreement was signed even though India has tested nuclear weapons and not signed the Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty.

Labor was always opposed to uranium sales to India and initially so was Foreign Minister Alexander Downer, but John Howard saw a commercial opportunity in support of an important alliance partner. 

There was domestic political opposition in India too, mainly from Communist allies in the coalition Government. 

*Now Indian Prime Minister Manmohan Singh has signalled to the Americans the deal is off, if not for good then at least for the time being.*


----------



## drmb

*Re: PDN - Paladin Resources*



Miner said:


> Folks
> Without any comments on uranium future as extracted from ABC news
> 
> *Indian-Aust uranium deal put on backburner*
> By South Asia correspondent Peter Lloyd
> 
> Posted 4 hours 48 minutes ago
> 
> The Prime Minister's hopes to sell uranium to India may have been dashed, with India backing out of its nuclear cooperation deal with the United States.




Shouldn't affect PDN's Namibian or other African U deposits or explorers/future miners such as BMN. In fact may boost the African stocks if U for Idnian cannot come from Oz


----------



## alankew

*Re: PDN - Paladin Resources*

Another strong day so far for this,up4% atm any one any idea whats going on with this or is it just U stocks back in favour and rumours of an increase in price of U


----------



## goldensun76

*Re: PDN - Paladin Resources*

Well, the spot price of U finally start to climb back..... now trading $3 up at $78...... not a big gain but at least it is something....


----------



## thierry

*Re: PDN - Paladin Resources*

pdn seems to be into a recovery along with the u price.. 

can someone do some tech analysis on the key price points .. I think if it breaks through the 8.00 barrier.. it will come close to testing 9 again.. any opinions?


----------



## dj_420

*Re: PDN - Paladin Resources*



goldensun76 said:


> Well, the spot price of U finally start to climb back..... now trading $3 up at $78...... not a big gain but at least it is something....




I think it will create a large change in sentiment. If uranium spot rises again and settles in the 80-90 range we could again see a lot opportunities regarding uranium companies that have been sold of heavily.

Mind you I think now it would only be producers or near term producers that will benefit from a rising spot. I think the days of making 300-400% on an IPO uranium float are over.


----------



## eMark

*Re: PDN - Paladin Resources*



thierry said:


> pdn seems to be into a recovery along with the u price..
> 
> can someone do some tech analysis on the key price points .. I think if it breaks through the 8.00 barrier.. it will come close to testing 9 again.. any opinions?




TSX.PDN. OCT 18, 2007

Last Trade: 6.72 
Trade Time: 4:18PM ET 
Change:  +0.33 (5.16%) 
Prev Close: 6.39 
Open: 6.47 
Bid: 6.72 
Ask: 6.73


----------



## Kauri

*Re: PDN - Paladin Resources*

Am still looking for this to get into the low $8's in the next few days or so before possibly retracing a tad.. 
 Cheers
..........Kauri


----------



## eMark

*Re: PDN - Paladin Resources*

PDN.TSX. OCT 19 2007

Last Trade: 6.48 
Trade Time: 4:17PM ET 
Change:  -0.24 (3.57%) 
Prev Close: 6.72 
Open: 6.70 
Bid: 6.48 
Ask: 6.49

Held up rather well considering the 366 point loss on the DOW. At one point only down 10c, but dropped away during the last hour when the DOW capitulated.

Hopefully after the initial shock on Monday morning which PDN.AX is expected to join, sense will prevail, and return it's price to a respectable level. Also it would help if the upcoming weeks U price remains stable, or maybe even has a surprise incrtease.

An interesting article.

On The Cover/Top Stories
Uranium Rush
Timothy Treadgold 10.29.07

John Borshoff 

Australia's John Borshoff returns from his mining wilderness. His revived Paladin Resources is responding to regional demand. 

Thirty years in the wilderness almost has a Biblical ring to it, but that's the time served by John Borshoff as he waited for the world to redevelop a taste for his favorite fuel, uranium. Today the 62-year-old Australian geologist is a born-again crusader, with one new uranium mine under his belt, a second being built, and plans to turn the company he founded, Paladin Resources, into a global leader in the nuclear power industry.

The change, triggered by a worldwide rush to switch from burning expensive and polluting fossil fuels such as coal and oil to once maligned uranium, has been dramatic for Borshoff and Paladin.

Four years ago Paladin was classified as "penny dreadful" when its shares were trading at 1 cent. Today it is a member of the top 100 on the Australian Securities Exchange, priced at $6.55 and valued at $3.8 billion, the world industry's second-highest-capitalized pure player. The value of Borshoff's 18 million shares in Paladin has soared from $180,000 to $118 million--and he no longer needs to fund the business off his personal credit card, which is what happened ten years ago when Paladin's bank account held just $17,000.

"I was always confident that uranium would return," Borshoff says. "The speed at which it's happening is a surprise, but there have been two critical events. There is a shortfall in the uranium inventory and an unbelievable rush to build new nuclear power reactors."

Stampede is probably a more accurate description of the return to nuclear power as an acceptable energy source after the 1979 Three Mile Island accident in the U.S. and the widespread damage and loss of life caused by the 1986 meltdown of a nuclear reactor at Chernobyl in Ukraine.

The 439 reactors currently operating around the world will soon be joined by 31 under construction, 86 planned and 223 proposed. That building program, coupled with a decline in the stockpile of ex-military grade material, has pushed the thinly traded spot market uranium price up from $10.90 a pound in mid-2003 to a peak of $135 a pound three months ago. It is now back around $75 per pound.

"They all need fuel," Borshoff says of the rushed return to nuclear power. "And no one has been exploring for uranium." On that point he's not quite right. Borshoff has forgotten himself.

Trained as a geologist in the 1960s at the University of Western Australia and then as junior geologist with the Canadian nickel miner, Inco, Borshoff moved across to the search for uranium in 1970 when he joined Uranerz, the Australian arm of the German uranium business Uranerzbergbau.

The German company was keen on Australia because it has extensive uranium reserves. The Australian Uranium Association estimates that 24% (1.14 million tonnes) of the world's recoverable uranium is in the country. Kazakhstan has the second-biggest inventory (17%, 816,000 tonnes), with Canada and the U.S. having 9% and 7%, respectively.

Politics, however, killed uranium exploration in Australia in the 1970s. A controversial "three mines" policy was introduced as a key plank in the country's antinuclear stance. The policy limited Australia to three operating mines at any one time. Uranerz and other companies could explore, but they couldn't mine. It wasn't long before most uranium exploration ground to a halt.

Borshoff refused to submit. When Uranerz quit Australia, he bought its extensive geological database for $13,500, partly in lieu of redundancy payments, using it as the key asset in the 1994 float of Paladin. He chose a bad time. Uranium was still deeply unloved, and the price was low as surplus Russian nuclear material flooded the commercial market. Borshoff got it wrong--he believed the price of uranium would rise. It didn't.

After three fruitless years, and with a dwindling bank balance, Paladin started to look for gold, but Borshoff's real interest remained uranium. When the price of uranium started to rise in mid-2003, he was armed with an unrivaled knowledge of uranium deposits around the world, including those at the Langer Heinrich project in southern Africa's Namibia.

Langer Heinrich was discovered in 1972, and its ownership changed several times because of the low uranium price. Paladin was the last in line, with a perfectly timed 2002 acquisition of the project, followed by mine development and the first production of uranium late last year.

Construction of a second uranium mine started three months ago in another African country, Malawi. The Kayelekera deposit was also discovered in 1981 but had lain dormant during the prolonged period of low uranium prices. It will start producing late next year. After Malawi, and with Australia's antiuranium policies breaking down, Paladin plans to develop mines in Australia, thanks in part to that original Uranerz database and also through its takeover earlier this year of a rival Oz explorer, Summit Resources.

"Our plan is to become a multimine, global uranium supply company," Borshoff says. "The Australian political impasse is weakening. It's inevitable. As huge countries like China and Russia declare their interest in Australian uranium, the industry will grow rapidly."

But to win his case for a nationwide boost to the uranium-mining industry Borshoff has some ground to make up. The premier (first minister) of the State of Western Australia, Alan Carpenter, resolutely opposes uranium mining. "We do not support uranium mining because we believe it will inevitably lead to W.A. becoming the dumping ground for the world's nuclear waste," Carpenter said in a definitive statement on uranium last year. He has not changed that position, and he is the man who counts because mining in Australia is state controlled.

But other players in the uranium game agree with Borshoff. Trade association official Ian Hore-Lacy says that even with politically restricted mine development, uranium represents 40% of Australia's energy exports when measured in thermal (heat-generating) terms.

"Australia is a preferred supplier to the world, especially East Asia," Hore-Lacy says. Most of the 10,000 tonnes of uranium exported from Australia in each of the past three years have come from the Ranger mine of Rio Tinto and the giant Olympic Dam mine of BHP Billiton. Right now both of those giant multinationals, as well as Cameco Corp. (nyse: CCJ - news - people ) of Canada, dwarf Paladin as a uranium producer.

According to Hore-Lacy the world uses about 80,000 tonnes of uranium a year. Mine production is running at 42,000 tonnes a year. The balance comes from reprocessed weapons-grade material, most of which will be used by 2013.

"The equation is really very simple," says Greg Hall, managing director of the Australian exploration company Toro (nyse: TTC - news - people ) Energy. "There's a large gap between demand and future supply, and it's going to have to be filled by expanding existing mines and opening new ones.

Join the Queue

Timothy Treadgold 10.29.07

Energy was high on the agenda of Russian President Vladimir Putin when he visited Australia in August--but not as a seller. In a twist that would bewilder European consumers of Russia's vast but unreliable supplies of oil and natural gas, Putin was joining a queue to buy Australian uranium, precisely because it is abundant and supplies dependable.

Despite its own stockpiles of military and civilian nuclear material, Russia is in the market for more uranium for its rapidly expanding nuclear electricity industry. It's not alone.

China's president, Hu Jintao, who was in Australia at the same time as Putin to attend a meeting of the Asia-Pacific Economic Cooperation (APEC) forum, also had uranium on his mind. The major topic when Hu met Howard was energy exports--gas and uranium from Australia.

Shipments of Australian uranium to Russia and China are yet to be made, but both Putin and Hu have signed nuclear safeguard agreements with Australia designed to ensure that any uranium acquired is used only for power generation. India is negotiating a similar deal.


----------



## Kauri

*Re: PDN - Paladin Resources*

Have now moved my stop up to the top of what seems to be the minor W1... unless of course this all turns out to be a large triangular abc W4?? 
 Cheers
.........Kauri


----------



## bigdog

*Re: PDN - Paladin Resources*

PDN - Paladin Resources SP currently is +$0.42   	  +5.71% early this morning with high of $7.94 which was +0.59

 PDN   $7.77  	   	  +$0.42   	  +5.71%   	 	 $7.72  	 $7.94  		 927,921 shares  	 $7,214,926  	@ 24-Oct 10:12:29


----------



## Kauri

*Re: PDN - Paladin Resources*

Was stopped out of Paladin today, set a stop just below todays open before going out for the day, wasn't too keen for one on the size of the gap..
 Cheers
..........Kauri


----------



## roland

*Re: PDN - Paladin Resources*



Kauri said:


> Was stopped out of Paladin today, set a stop just below todays open before going out for the day, wasn't too keen for one on the size of the gap..
> Cheers
> ..........Kauri




Had my sell order in for $7.80 at close to give me my 6% on my lowest packet. Missed out - maybe tomorrow... up will be sell, down will be buy. I personally think that PDN's risk profile has been reduced and I will follow down.


----------



## roland

*Re: PDN - Paladin Resources*

PDN's quarterly sounds positive, although I do read a little frustration into it regarding the plants continuing bottlenecks. At least we shipped some product. I am wondering though why PDN is spending so much on Australian drilling programs and exploration? Aren't we restricted with the 3 mines policy still? Aren't we restricted with non-export of Uranium? Shouldn't we be putting all our effort into offshore resources?

I suppose someone knows better than I with what is going on..


----------



## goldensun76

*Re: PDN - Paladin Resources*

U dollar continue to rise again..... I think if the price announcement next week is positive again, we should see PDN back to $8........


----------



## eMark

*Re: PDN - Paladin Resources*



goldensun76 said:


> U dollar continue to rise again..... I think if the price announcement next week is positive again, we should see PDN back to $8........




Well, what a week. IMHO things appear positive for PDN at weeks end. PDN.AX finished nicely at 7.84, moving slightly past the 7.70's bracket it's been flirting with for a while. Also last night for PDN.TX it finished at 6.96, so close to the 7.00 mark it's been trying to push through for the last 4 weeks. It would appear that PDN.AX and PDN.TX look like they are destined to break through $8.00 and $7.00 respectively next week. I had a quick look at the December Uranium futures price for last night, and it has moved up $3.00 to $92.00. This may lead to a further increase in the Uranium spot price next week, where it currently stands at $80.00.

http://futuresource.quote.com/quotes/quotes.jsp?s=XUX&t=Future

s - Settlement Price

Contract-------------Month--Time----Last-----Chg--Open--High---Low 
URANIUM U308 SWAP  Dec '07 15:42:49 92.00 s +3.00 92.00 92.00 92.00


PDN.TX October 26 2007

Last Trade: 6.96 
Trade Time: 4:15PM ET 
Change:  +0.23 (3.42%) 
Prev Close: 6.73 
Open: 6.73 
Bid: 6.95 
Ask: 6.96 


PDN.AX October 26 2007

Last Trade: 7.840 AUD 
Trade Time: Oct 26 
Change: +0.200 (2.62%)
Prev Close: 7.640 
Open: 7.550 
Bid: 7.830 
Ask: 7.840


----------



## Moneybags

*Re: PDN - Paladin Resources*



roland said:


> PDN's quarterly sounds positive, although I do read a little frustration into it regarding the plants continuing bottlenecks. At least we shipped some product. I am wondering though why PDN is spending so much on Australian drilling programs and exploration? Aren't we restricted with the 3 mines policy still? Aren't we restricted with non-export of Uranium? Shouldn't we be putting all our effort into offshore resources?
> 
> I suppose someone knows better than I with what is going on..




Yes Roland, I agree report sounds positive but there is the issue as you have noted with Aussie drilling programs. Is anyone able to shed some light on this factor. Maybe they are just sureing up assets in the hope of a takeover.

MB


----------



## eMark

*Re: PDN - Paladin Resources*



eMark said:


> Well, what a week. IMHO things appear positive for PDN at weeks end. PDN.AX finished nicely at 7.84, moving slightly past the 7.70's bracket it's been flirting with for a while. Also last night for PDN.TX it finished at 6.96, so close to the 7.00 mark it's been trying to push through for the last 4 weeks. It would appear that PDN.AX and PDN.TX look like they are destined to break through $8.00 and $7.00 respectively next week. I had a quick look at the December Uranium futures price for last night, and it has moved up $3.00 to $92.00. This may lead to a further increase in the Uranium spot price next week, where it currently stands at $80.00.
> 
> http://futuresource.quote.com/quotes/quotes.jsp?s=XUX&t=Future
> 
> s - Settlement Price
> 
> Contract-------------Month--Time----Last-----Chg--Open--High---Low
> URANIUM U308 SWAP  Dec '07 15:42:49 92.00 s +3.00 92.00 92.00 92.00
> 
> 
> PDN.TX October 26 2007
> 
> Last Trade: 6.96
> Trade Time: 4:15PM ET
> Change:  +0.23 (3.42%)
> Prev Close: 6.73
> Open: 6.73
> Bid: 6.95
> Ask: 6.96
> 
> 
> PDN.AX October 26 2007
> 
> Last Trade: 7.840 AUD
> Trade Time: Oct 26
> Change: +0.200 (2.62%)
> Prev Close: 7.640
> Open: 7.550
> Bid: 7.830
> Ask: 7.840




Spot Uranium Continues To Rise
FN Arena News - October 29 2007 

By Rudi Filapek-Vandyck


The return of hedge funds and other financial speculators has led to a third price rise for spot U3O8 (uranium oxide) in three weeks with industry consultant TradeTech reportedly lifting its weekly price indicator by US$4 to US$84/lb on Friday.


According to the industry consultant, at least 350,000 pounds were sold via two separate transactions during the past week.


----------



## eMark

*Re: PDN - Paladin Resources*



Moneybags said:


> Yes Roland, I agree report sounds positive but there is the issue as you have noted with Aussie drilling programs. Is anyone able to shed some light on this factor. Maybe they are just sureing up assets in the hope of a takeover.
> 
> MB




Not sure what to think about this? U price is going up, yes. But according to the report PDN's production rate will be down. Will the rising U price be enough to sustain PDN's recent SP climb?

Paladin Production Poor, Opinions Mixed
FN Arena News - October 29 2007 

By Chris Shaw


Having endured a significant pullback from prices of US$136/138 per pound the uranium price appears to have begun trending higher once again, but the move is coming too late for emerging producer Paladin (PDN) shares according to ABN Amro.


The broker has downgraded its rating on the stock to Hold from Buy on the back of lower expected uranium production through to the end of FY09. This follows revised guidance from management on the back of problems with the IX circuit and delays in getting additional IX delivered.


The company has now indicated the second half of 2007 should see production of 613,000 drums, down from 900,000 previously and ABN Amro’s own forecast of 776,000 drums. Guidance for 2008 remains for production of 2.6 million barrels.


This brings the broker’s earnings estimates down accordingly, with its 2008 profit forecast being cut to US$25.6m from US$31.5m previously, while for 2009 its forecast is lowered to US$171.5m from US$240.9m.


This puts the broker in a somewhat different position to Macquarie, which cut its 2008 forecast by almost 40% but did little to its 2009 estimate, while UBS has made changes more in line in cutting its forecasts for 2008 by 56% to US$20m and in 2009 by 19% to US$303m.


In contrast to ABN Amro, UBS continues to rate the stock as Buy on what it sees as solid underlying fundamentals for the uranium market and the company’s potential to expand production at the Langer Heinrich project.


It values the stock at $6.01, while ABN Amro’s valuation has fallen to $5.94 from $6.35. GSJB Were has a valuation on the stock of an even more conservative $5.42, rating it as a Sell.


One supportive factor for the shares according to ABN Amro is the more production problems it faces in ramping up Langer Heinrich the better it will be for the global uranium price as it will mean a tighter market.


As a result the broker will be watching to see how the ramp-up proceeds, GSJB Were noting while management expect the issues will be dealt with by the end of the year there is scope for problems to remain into 2008.


Overall the FNArena database shows the stock scoring two Buys, two Holds and the one Sell recommendation, with an average price target of $7.56, which is down from $7.84 prior to the production report.


Shares in Paladin today are stronger despite the lower earnings guidance and at 1.40pm the stock was up 14c at $7.98. This compares to a range over the past 12 months of $5.09-$10.80.


----------



## goldensun76

*Re: PDN - Paladin Resources*

Well, PDN.ax broke through the $8 intraday high of 8.06...... I think it will continue to march towards $8.50...... Anyone got any technical idea??


----------



## dj_420

*Re: PDN - Paladin Resources*

This could explain price rise:

REFILE-Uranium One slashes production forecasts
Tue Oct 30, 2007 9:37pm GMT

Email This Article | Print This Article | Digg | Single Page
[-] Text [+]
Market News
Spanish insurer Mapfre agrees to buy Commerce Group
More Business & Investing News...

(Refiles to fix typo in headline)

TORONTO, Oct 30 (Reuters) - Uranium One (UUU.TO: Quote, Profile, Research) said on Tuesday it was slashing it 2007 and 2008 production forecasts due to problems at three of its operations.

The Toronto-based miner said it expects to produce about 2.1 million pounds of uranium this year, down from a previous forecast of 2.5 million pounds, due largely to delays in commissioning equipment at its Dominion Reefs plant in South Africa.

For 2008, production is expected to be 4.6 million pounds, down from 7.4 million pounds, due largely to a shortage of sulphuric acid that is expected to delay the ramp-up of Uranium One's South Inkai and Kharasan mines in Kazakhstan.

"The company is seeking longer-term solutions to the sulphuric acid constraint," Uranium One said in a statement.

The acid shortage is due to delays in completion of a local Kazakhstan copper smelter, it said.

Uranium One said it expects production of about 8 million pounds in 2009 and about 11 million pounds in 2010, as more projects come on line.

In September, Chief Executive Neal Froneman told Reuters the company aimed to produce about 28 million pounds by 2013, which would bring its production in line with current world No. 1 producer Cameco Corp (CCO.TO: Quote, Profile, Research).

Uranium One's shares slipped 22 Canadian cents to C$12.73 on the Toronto Stock Exchange on Tuesday. The news was released after markets closed.


----------



## voigtstr

*Re: PDN - Paladin Resources*

Can someone who gets the full fat prophets report (not the teaser that I get) tell me which company they are talking about in the following text? (and I'm not ramping, I honestly dont know which company they mean) 

"The stockmarket closed at an all time high on Monday, with mining & resources stocks again setting the pace. 

We profile an old favourite West Australian gold miner and our brand new uranium stock, both of which we think are set to be beneficiaries of the ongoing resources boom. 

Read on for this, and to find out what all The Fuzz is about Melbourne Cup day. 
"

I'm still a little wary of fat prophets at the moment... the amount of hype in their text gives me the same kind of tingles as when I start to read a hoax email.

Since they are saying "new" company, I take it they dont mean Bannerman or Paladin?


----------



## bvbfan

*Re: PDN - Paladin Resources*

I don't subscribe to FP but I believe from reading the teaser the company is EXT (Extract)

They put out a buy at 98.5 last week also

I had held EXT but sold out last week


----------



## drmb

*Re: PDN - Paladin Resources*

_Cameco Sales to Fall; Cigar Lake Faces Further Delay_ http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601082&sid=au_4lIzOiyiY&refer=canada and _Uranium One cuts 2008 output 37%_ http://www.miningmx.com/energy/664425.htm means that PDN.To has taken off, trading at up to Can$7.50 in trade up to luchtime (here in NY, NY), up >8%. Makes yesterday's ASX pdn trading look a little tame, at up only 6%. Get ready imo for other U stocks to go up as well


----------



## eMark

*Re: PDN - Paladin Resources*



drmb said:


> _Cameco Sales to Fall; Cigar Lake Faces Further Delay_ http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601082&sid=au_4lIzOiyiY&refer=canada and _Uranium One cuts 2008 output 37%_ http://www.miningmx.com/energy/664425.htm means that PDN.To has taken off, trading at up to Can$7.50 in trade up to luchtime (here in NY, NY), up >8%. Makes yesterday's ASX pdn trading look a little tame, at up only 6%. Get ready imo for other U stocks to go up as well




With the misfortunes of TSX.CCO -1.73 (3.59%) *more Cigar Lake delays* & TSX.UUU -2.48 (19.48%) *slashing production forecasts*, comes fortune for TSX.PDN +0.53 (7.78%) finishing at $7.34. Nice!

Also last nights U futures for December was up another $5.30 to finish at $97.30


----------



## eMark

*Re: PDN - Paladin Resources*



eMark said:


> With the misfortunes of TSX.CCO -1.73 (3.59%) *more Cigar Lake delays* & TSX.UUU -2.48 (19.48%) *slashing production forecasts*, comes fortune for TSX.PDN +0.53 (7.78%) finishing at $7.34. Nice!
> 
> Also last nights U futures for December was up another $5.30 to finish at $97.30




Re the first 30 mins of trade for PDN today. So what are we looking at here guys? The start of a big run? Or last calls for exiting for those who were left high and dry back in August?


----------



## Out Too Soon

*Re: PDN - Paladin Resources*



eMark said:


> Re the first 30 mins of trade for PDN today. So what are we looking at here guys? The start of a big run? Or last calls for exiting for those who were left high and dry back in August?




It's been a long nervous ride but I'm finally out today at a profit. 

Don't talk to me abt U stocks until after the election.


----------



## roland

*Re: PDN - Paladin Resources*

Yes, it's been a long wait, and I followed it all the way down. I'm nearly out - last packet will be gone at $9.00 if it gets there.


----------



## alankew

*Re: PDN - Paladin Resources*

Can understand your thinking guys as it has beena pretty tough few months being in PDN-i bought via CFD so bought more than i should have,OOPS!But the pain this bugger has put me through will not be relinquished without a decent profit.All indicators look positive atm and the U price is even climbing,problem with Tecks mine etc,IMO i would be and will be holding,just my


----------



## Moneybags

*Re: PDN - Paladin Resources*

I can understand people getting out after such a drop and in the past I would have been one of them.....but for what it's worth I'm holding fast.

There has been a real change in sentiment toward most U stocks of late and with the spot rising now I'm hoping U will be back in favour for a while.

Good luck to remaining holders.

MB


----------



## goldensun76

*Re: PDN - Paladin Resources*

Well, from the chart looks like the upward trend has formed...... I sold my first trench around 8.10..... should have wait for another day for the 8% gain..... Well, looking for the stock to go to 9.50 before I off load...... Anyone got any technical thought??


----------



## eMark

*Re: PDN - Paladin Resources*



goldensun76 said:


> Well, from the chart looks like the upward trend has formed...... I sold my first trench around 8.10..... should have wait for another day for the 8% gain..... Well, looking for the stock to go to 9.50 before I off load...... Anyone got any technical thought??




Well batton down the hatches, it looks like it could be a rough ride in the US markets tonight. With our market down today around 120, and the very real possibility of it dropping further tommorrow, normally I would salute PDN as it's ship usually sinks with the rest of the market.

But there appears to be some real positives. PDN has only moved marginally lower today with LOW volume, a very good sign. Also the U price continues to rise. As stated in the following article, PDN's "share price has found solid support at the 20 moving average (M/A)"

Have a read of the following article, it's inspiring......Keep the faith!

------------------------------------------------------------------

Uranium Heating Up Again, Says Wizard
FN Arena News - November 05 2007 

Just like many other market watchers, the Tech Wizard had been underestimating the technical correction that commenced in June this year and nearly halved the spot price of uranium oxide (U3O8) in a time span of 16 weeks only.

However, weekly spot prices set by industry consultants TradeTech and Ux Consulting have risen again over the past few weeks and the Wizard’s own investigation in the industry has provided him with enough confidence to predict that spot U3O8 will soon surpass the price of a barrel of crude oil again.

Moreover, the Tech Wizard believes we could be talking a spot price of US$100+/lb before the end of this month -under a best case scenario- but most certainly before the end of December. His personal contacts inside the global professional investment community have ensured him hot money is looking at re-entering the sector again, with confidence currently riding high that uranium will regain its hot spot status in the market soon.

To his personal observation confidence amongst professional speculators in the industry hasn’t been this high for months. This strengthens his conviction in retaining a positive bias towards Australian uranium stocks.

Adding to what he believes is the best looking prospect for uranium prices and share prices of uranium stocks since the technical correction commenced in late June is the fact that Canadian market leader Cameco has again further delayed the opening of its flagship Cigar Lake mine. This mine should be supplying the global market with some 10% extra product, but Cameco management last week pushed the projected ramp up date into 2011. Originally, the mine was scheduled to commence production this calendar year already.

This suggests the market is likely to remain undersupplied for longer than currently penciled in by most securities analysts, he says.

The Tech Wizard notes how industry experts have doubted Cameco management’s earlier statements that production would only be delayed by twelve months only. Later that statement had been revised into a projected start up date sometime in 2010-2011. Since last week the market has become aware that Cigar Lake won’t be supplying any yellow cake into the market until at least 2011.

Looking at Australia’s two leading producers from a technical perspective, the Tech Wizard observes that both share prices of Energy Resources of Australia (ERA) and Paladin Resources ((PDN)) have found support at their 20 moving averages (M/A) since the correction began in June.

This is a good sign, he says.

ERA’s share price has bounced back since sinking below $15 and subsequently finding support at the 20 moving average (M/A), the Tech Wizard says.

He says the MACD indicator is bullish and this supports his positive view.

For Paladin the prospects look even better, he says. After topping out above $10 the shares have fallen 50% to bottom out below $5. As said above, after this the share price found solid support at the 20 moving average (M/A), the Wizard says, and this month his chart shows a bullish breakaway gap.

If by the end of November this gap is still in place this would be a very bullish sign for Paladin shares, says the Wizard, as this would indicate there is strong support for the stock at this price level.

Again, the MACD indicator is bullish and this adds to his positive view.

The Tech Wizard currently owns no shares in any of the companies mentioned in this story.


----------



## Fab

*Re: PDN - Paladin Resources*



eMark said:


> Well batton down the hatches, it looks like it could be a rough ride in the US markets tonight. With our market down today around 120, and the very real possibility of it dropping further tommorrow, normally I would salute PDN as it's ship usually sinks with the rest of the market.
> 
> But there appears to be some real positives. PDN has only moved marginally lower today with LOW volume, a very good sign. Also the U price continues to rise. As stated in the following article, PDN's "share price has found solid support at the 20 moving average (M/A)"
> 
> Have a read of the following article, it's inspiring......Keep the faith!
> 
> ------------------------------------------------------------------
> Uranium Heating Up Again, Says Wizard
> FN Arena News - November 05 2007
> 
> Just like many other market watchers, the Tech Wizard had been underestimating the technical correction that commenced in June this year and nearly halved the spot price of uranium oxide (U3O8) in a time span of 16 weeks only.
> 
> However, weekly spot prices set by industry consultants TradeTech and Ux Consulting have risen again over the past few weeks and the Wizard’s own investigation in the industry has provided him with enough confidence to predict that spot U3O8 will soon surpass the price of a barrel of crude oil again.
> 
> Moreover, the Tech Wizard believes we could be talking a spot price of US$100+/lb before the end of this month -under a best case scenario- but most certainly before the end of December. His personal contacts inside the global professional investment community have ensured him hot money is looking at re-entering the sector again, with confidence currently riding high that uranium will regain its hot spot status in the market soon.
> 
> To his personal observation confidence amongst professional speculators in the industry hasn’t been this high for months. This strengthens his conviction in retaining a positive bias towards Australian uranium stocks.
> 
> Adding to what he believes is the best looking prospect for uranium prices and share prices of uranium stocks since the technical correction commenced in late June is the fact that Canadian market leader Cameco has again further delayed the opening of its flagship Cigar Lake mine. This mine should be supplying the global market with some 10% extra product, but Cameco management last week pushed the projected ramp up date into 2011. Originally, the mine was scheduled to commence production this calendar year already.
> 
> This suggests the market is likely to remain undersupplied for longer than currently penciled in by most securities analysts, he says.
> 
> The Tech Wizard notes how industry experts have doubted Cameco management’s earlier statements that production would only be delayed by twelve months only. Later that statement had been revised into a projected start up date sometime in 2010-2011. Since last week the market has become aware that Cigar Lake won’t be supplying any yellow cake into the market until at least 2011.
> 
> Looking at Australia’s two leading producers from a technical perspective, the Tech Wizard observes that both share prices of Energy Resources of Australia (ERA) and Paladin Resources ((PDN)) have found support at their 20 moving averages (M/A) since the correction began in June.
> 
> This is a good sign, he says.
> 
> ERA’s share price has bounced back since sinking below $15 and subsequently finding support at the 20 moving average (M/A), the Tech Wizard says.
> 
> He says the MACD indicator is bullish and this supports his positive view.
> 
> For Paladin the prospects look even better, he says. After topping out above $10 the shares have fallen 50% to bottom out below $5. As said above, after this the share price found solid support at the 20 moving average (M/A), the Wizard says, and this month his chart shows a bullish breakaway gap.
> 
> If by the end of November this gap is still in place this would be a very bullish sign for Paladin shares, says the Wizard, as this would indicate there is strong support for the stock at this price level.
> 
> Again, the MACD indicator is bullish and this adds to his positive view.
> 
> The Tech Wizard currently owns no shares in any of the companies mentioned in this story.




I own PDN and I am wondering at what price level is "the solid support at the 20 moving average (M/A)" ?


----------



## eMark

*Re: PDN - Paladin Resources*



Fab said:


> I own PDN and I am wondering at what price level is "the solid support at the 20 moving average (M/A)" ?




Fab

I believe it's somewhere between $6.50 and $7.00 - 20 moving average (M/A)

eMark

adding text cos msg is too short


----------



## eMark

*Re: PDN - Paladin Resources*

PDN.TSX Nov 05 2007

Down...but on very low volume. 

Last Trade: 7.17 
Trade Time: 3:59PM ET 
Change:  -0.18 (2.45%) 
Prev Close: 7.35 
Open: 7.35 
Bid: 7.15 
Ask: 7.17

Day's Range: 7.12 - 7.35 
52wk Range: 4.52 - 9.99 
Volume: 1,022,086 
Avg Vol (3m): 3,695,130

-------------------------------------------------------------

U3O8 Spot Price Continues To Rise
FN Arena News - November 06 2007 

By Rudi Filapek-Vandyck


Confidence is rising among sellers of uranium oxide (U3O8) that prices will move up and will continue doing so in the times ahead. This is not our personal assessment but the view from industry consultant TradeTech as expressed in its latest weekly update on the uranium sector.


TradeTech has picked up from the market place that speculators are moving back in and sellers have become reluctant to commit to any offers received as they have the impression that waiting a little while can do wonders for the price achieved for their product.


TradeTech puts it as follows: “The majority of sellers expect spot uranium prices to strengthen over the next few months, and as a result, are very hesitant to commit to sales at this time.”


It is because of this reason that TradeTech has decided to add another US$3 to its weekly spot price indicator to take it to US$93 per pound on Friday. Last week the consultant raised its price indicator to US$90 from US$84 the prior week.


Ux Consulting, the other sector consultant who sets a weekly spot price indicator, raised by US$5 to US$85/lb last week.


This week TradeTech’s judgement, on the basis of information received from buyers and sellers in the market place, is that it will require a price above last week’s benchmark of US$90 to successfully conclude a transaction.


No transactions were recorded in the long term market and this explains why the long term price indicator has remained unchanged at US$95/lb.


----------



## Sean K

*Re: PDN - Paladin Resources*

I'm not sure if this is old news, but PDN seem to be having some real trouble with their production rate. 



> *Paladin slugged by output woes *
> 
> Kevin Andrusiak | November 07, 2007
> 
> PALADIN boss John Borshoff says his company is not planning any more third-party uranium purchases, after it took a $13 million hit in the September quarter selling 150,000 pounds of yellowcake to fulfil supply contracts it could not meet with production from its Langer Heinrich mine in northern Namibia.
> 
> Paladin's third-quarter accounts reveal the company had disposed of nearly 90 per cent of uranium it purchased during the June quarter to cover production shortfalls at Langer Heinrich and bought when the spot price was at record highs.
> 
> Paladin bought 250,000 pounds of uranium at around $US133 a pound in June at a time of a global shortfall of yellowcake, while its recent quarterly accounts show that 215,000 pounds were offloaded since then with the bulk sold in the three months to the end of September.




Is up 3.5% on the TSX though, so mustn't be all bad. Perhaps U spot appreciation is giving a hand.

Looks to be heading back up here, with $9.00 ish providing some resistance.


----------



## eMark

*Re: PDN - Paladin Resources*



kennas said:


> Looks to be heading back up here, with $9.00 ish providing some resistance.




Spot Uranium On The Move As Sellers Turned Smarter
FN Arena News - November 07 2007 

By Rudi Filapek-Vandyck

The weekly spot price for uranium oxide, or U3O8 for the aficionados, has now risen US$19 in four weeks. Considering this has taken the spot price from US$75 per pound to US$93 per pound –a gain of 24%- there can be little dispute the label “impressive” applies once again.

That is if one uses TradeTech’s assessments as a guidance. The other industry consultant that sets its own weekly spot price indicator, Ux Consulting, only increased its benchmark price to US$90 per pound this time, up US$5 from the previous week. Ever since spot uranium has bounced from its lows at US$75 per pound last month UxC’s price setting has been lagging TradeTech’s, but one should probably not draw too many conclusions from this. Earlier this year the roles were simply reversed.

But even on UxC’s numbers the rapid price recovery -20% in four weeks only- still easily deserves the tag “impressive”.

And one only has to look at today’s share prices of uranium stocks in the Australian share market to conclude that investor interest in the sector has truly returned. Shares of Paladin Resources (PDN) moved beyond $9 again today while Energy Resources of Australia ((ERA)) did even better: up more than 5% to $24.79 at around one hour before the closing bell on Wednesday.

Both consultants have left their long term price indicators unchanged at US$95 per pound since early calendar 2007.

And similar to this time around last year, Cameco’s Cigar Lake project features once again prominently in the global rumour mill that links miners and utilities with investors and speculators. UxC reports this week some of these speculators suspect that even Cameco’s latest assessment that first production from Cigar Lake may not happen until 2011 may still prove to be too optimistic. Apparently, some experts believe it is safer to assume a date sometime in 2012-2014.

UxC does mention that even though its weekly spot price indicator rose by US$5 for the second week in a row, the industry is awash with reports about “much higher offer prices”. This obviously feeds expectations of further price rises in the near future.

The consultant points out a few offers are currently under evaluation by some sellers and it can therefore be expected that the spot U3O8 will be up another notch or two (three?) once the results will be made public.

But probably the most interesting observation in this week’s report on the industry is the fact that UxC believes sellers of uranium have changed their attitude in order to avoid the price excesses that captivated the industry until June this year.

Instead of offering as much as possible and aiming to achieve a price above the spot price for it, sellers of uranium are offering smaller lots these days to prevent things getting out of hand once again, while still benefiting from tight market circumstances.

The general idea seems to be that by cutting the lots of uranium into smaller pieces one can still benefit from rising prices without trying to achieve it all in one go.

It is easy to see why some market experts believe uranium prices are once again on an upward path.


----------



## eMark

*Re: PDN - Paladin Resources*

Ok...

Not a lot of contribution to PDN over the last couple of days. This post is simply therapy for me. PDN moved into the $9.00 range yesterday....and there was no comment? I was pleased. Almost.....sold too! But didn't.....Now I see the DOW has had another 360 point loss.....ouch! PDN will take a hit today, but I will be pleased if it finds support in the 8.00 range. U has support again, and PDN is once again strong. Bring it on I say, let this be a test for PDN today! 

Oh yeah! Also last nights DECEMBER FUTURES for Uranium went up another whopping $12.00, to finish at ***$110.00*** I see todays inevitable fall as a blip. 

Even PDN.TSX only had a minor fall overnight.............Keep the faith!

Last Trade: 7.28 
Trade Time: 3:59PM ET 
Change:  -0.14 (2.02%) 
Prev Close: 7.42 
Open: 7.63 
Bid: 7.26 
Ask: 7.28


----------



## roland

*Re: PDN - Paladin Resources*



eMark said:


> Ok...
> 
> Not a lot of contribution to PDN over the last couple of days. This post is simply therapy for me. PDN moved into the $9.00 range yesterday....and there was no comment? I was pleased. Almost.....sold too! But didn't.....Now I see the DOW has had another 360 point loss.....ouch! PDN will take a hit today, but I will be pleased if it finds support in the 8.00 range. U has support again, and PDN is once again strong. Bring it on I say, let this be a test for PDN today!
> 
> Oh yeah! Also last nights DECEMBER FUTURES for Uranium went up another whopping $12.00, to finish at ***$110.00*** I see todays inevitable fall as a blip.
> 
> Even PDN.TSX only had a minor fall overnight.............Keep the faith!
> 
> Last Trade: 7.28
> Trade Time: 3:59PM ET
> Change:  -0.14 (2.02%)
> Prev Close: 7.42
> Open: 7.63
> Bid: 7.26
> Ask: 7.28




Therapy is a good thing. I followed it all the way down - in fact I was well over my head. The last week or so was a breath of fresh air and I finally sold out totally yesterday. Phew! I'll re-enter if it falls below $8. No hard feelings though, I had a good ride with PDN


----------



## thedave

*Re: PDN - Paladin Resources*

I got into PDN yesterday at 8.96, but I only got to buy a couple hundred shares at that price, so the buy went unfilled...thankfully...saw the market this AM and couldnt understand and initially thought it was just some players making pre-market moves, but it didnt look right, so I modified the buy price down.  The rest filled this AM for av price 8.58, I see some early support in the mid-8's so not distressed.


----------



## eMark

*Re: PDN - Paladin Resources*

Another therapeutic post.

Ok, here are the facts (well as factual as I have access to them)

The DOW has finished the week off at... 

13,042.74 -223.55 -1.69%

Can you believe we are at 13000 again? We'll probably go even lower.

TSX.PDN finished unchanged (nice effort considering...)

Last Trade: 7.20 
Trade Time: 4:00PM ET 
Change: 0.00 (0.00%) 
Prev Close: 7.20 
Open: 7.29 
Bid: 7.16 
Ask: 7.20 

ASX.PDN finished the week off at...

Last Trade: 8.780 AUD 
Trade Time: Nov 9 
Change:  0.380 (4.52%) 
Prev Close: 8.400 
Open: 8.600 
Bid: 8.730 
Ask: 8.780 

Now that's past history, as I can see PDN.ASX Monday closing around the 8.20-8.40 range. Also the All Ords probably losing another 100 points or so to finish in the 6500 range.

Now what's the point of this post? Well the last time the DOW was at around 13000, the ALL ORDS was around 6200, so we're still ahead. But also when you look at PDN TSX & ASX, to where they're now, compared to where they were last time the DOW was around 13000, it's pretty impressive.

Now I know the DOW is not the be all and end all, but the last time the DOW hit 13000, TSX.PDN was around 5.45, it's now 7.20, and ASX.PDN was around 6.10 (and as I mentioned before, even though it finished out at 8.78 on Friday, it will most likely come back to around 8.20 on Monday, hope I'm wrong). But the point is on average the difference is about $2.00! That's actually pretty good. 

It's stands well to move even further upwards once volatility in the general markets calms down) Or maybe it will do that anyway. I feel another U price rise next week.

The reason for this post I guess is that I could have offloaded all of PDN recently at breakeven, and it's like a kick in the head when she back tracks 40-50c when the DOW farts. But as I said, when things do settle down, I believe nothing will hold PDN back. I'm don't want to be saying geez, I wish I hadn't sold at break even, and now it's $10.00 or something...


----------



## rederob

*Re: PDN - Paladin Resources*



eMark said:


> The reason for this post I guess is that I could have offloaded all of PDN recently at breakeven, and it's like a kick in the head when she back tracks 40-50c when the DOW farts. But as I said, when things do settle down, I believe nothing will hold PDN back. I'm don't want to be saying geez, I wish I hadn't sold at break even, and now it's $10.00 or something...




eMark
Uranium prices have stabilised, and moved to the upside again.
With less uranium coming onto the market than anticipated over the next few years the probability of former highs being exceeded in the medium term are better.


----------



## Moneybags

*Re: PDN - Paladin Resources*

I agree rederob and I'm pretty sure others would too. 

I was wondering if you had held your parcel through the last correction having bought your last lot I think around 8.50 from memory. I certainly did and sure am glad PDN has recovered to where it is now. 

Cheers

MB


----------



## rederob

*Re: PDN - Paladin Resources*



rederob said:


> eMark
> Uranium prices have stabilised, and moved to the upside again.
> With less uranium coming onto the market than anticipated over the next few years the probability of former highs being exceeded in the medium term are better.




Hello prawn.
The odds I gave were based on present betting prices available to any online punter - Labor is a 74% bet.
Accordingly, the likelihood of Rudd being the next PM on the basis of those quoted figures are very good: The fact that just about every poll since Rudd was elected Labor leader gives a similar outcome validates the betting odds.
In relation to uranium being a better bet, the past 5 years data available at Kitco for base metals shows that in 100% of cases where a metal is in strong demand, initial highs that were blown off subsequently retraced to even greater highs. Readers can test this by visiting kitco.com and bringing up their charts - in the case of nickel, prices more than doubled the previous record high'
The probability of uranium (which is a metal in strong demand and short supply) replicating these general trends is exceptionally high.  
If you have evidence to the contrary, please produce it.
As I said in the original post, it's like shooting fish in a barrel.

By the way prawn, the maths behind probabilities is beyond the average reader, so asking for justifications would pander to a very select few.  That said, a posteriori probabilities of stock price determination suggests a dart board or random walk could give as good an outcome. An excellent long term study was conducted to prove this:
http://www.bnains.org/backtest/conseils/cowles44/cowles44.htm
While that was a long time ago, little has changed since.
So any post, no matter how well justified, is likely to fall prey to the vagaries of the market.


Moneybags
I have accumulated 9k PDN at an average entry price a shade under $7.
I do not expect PDN to hit its straps for several years, as by then it should have additional production ramped up.


----------



## prawn_86

*Re: PDN - Paladin Resources*

Once again Rob, i will ask directly. 

Please refrain from posting exact odds on the movement of stocks. It is against ASF and ASIC guidelines, which can be found here:

https://www.aussiestockforums.com/help/posting-guidelines/

https://www.aussiestockforums.com/help/terms

I do not have a problem with you stating,


> the probability of former highs being exceeded in the medium term are better.




However your statement,


> it's like shooting fish in a barrel



is virtually ramping and in future will be removed, as i believe you have been warned by the other moderators.

However posting specific % figures infers that you are a licenced financial advisor. If you are can you please inform me and i will defer to the higher powers, however if not, specific odds should not be posted and wil continue to be moderated against.

If you have any further queries PM me so as ot to defer this thread any more.

I too think PDN has a bright mid to long term future, especially once the teething problems at their mine is sorted out and full production can be acheived.


----------



## ninuzzo

*Re: PDN - Paladin Resources*

URANIUM UP AGAIN TO $93 PER POUND 

http://communities.canada.com/natio...her-strength-as-prices-climb-above-us-90.aspx

FP Trading Desk
Uranium shows signs of further strength as prices climb above US$90 
Uranium prices continue to rise with both of the major market monitors of the nuclear fuel raising their price indicators recently. 

Ux Consulting hiked its price by US$3 to US$93 per pound this week, citing more activity in the market. The firm expects prices will climb as offers were being reported above this level. TradeTech moved up US$5 to US$90.

Uranium hit an all-time high of US$136 at the end of June, but subsequently fell to US$75. Spot prices were as low as US$7 per pound in 2000.

UxC has a bullish view on the market, noting that bad news seems to dominate positive developments these days, RBC Capital Markets analyst Adam Schatzker told clients in a note.

Some of this bad news includes a shortage of sulphuric acid in Kazakhstan, which is used for in situ recovery projects. This is leading to production cuts by companies like Uranium One Inc. 

Cameco Corp. pushed back the date it expects the Cigar Lake mine to come on line and now sees this happening sometime between 2011 and 2014.

Meanwhile, a deal between the U.S. and Russia to buy uranium from dismantled Russian nuclear weapons expires in 2013. Given that the market isn’t exactly awash in inventories, this development could provide support for the high prices required to encourage exploration and project development, Mr. Schatzker said. Russia also recently asked for prices paid by Cameco to again be renegotiated in order to reflect higher spot prices.

Given the recent US$15 rise for uranium, the analyst says it is showing signs of strength in the near term. RBC forecasts spot prices will continue to strengthen, potentially hitting US$100 per pound by the end of the year.

Jonathan Ratner


----------



## rederob

*Re: PDN - Paladin Resources*

eMark
Thanks for your pm.
A fortnight ago PDN broke out of a downtrend in place since April this year.
After hitting $10.80 back then PDN went into decline and fell into the low $5 range just a few months ago, as other equities became more attractive.
With uranium markets typically stronger in the latter part of a calendar year (northern winter) the price momentum, as evidenced from the previous post, is firm (although not as frenetic as earlier in the year).
PDN's worst is behind it unless it hits another production glitch: The company presumptuously forward sold metal it anticipated mining, but ended up going back to the spot market to cover itself, when uranium prices peaked - not clever.
PDN's daily market volumes suggest steady accumulation is occurring.
Accordingly, its probable retrace to former highs is unlikely to gather any serious pace unless uranium prices again spike up.
I have a re-entry bid at $7.50 to give myself a rounded 10K holding.
If it does not get that low in the near term, I am patient enough to hold off buying until the next significant retrace.


----------



## Kauri

*Re: PDN - Paladin Resources*

I have been waiting patiently for her to get back down to the $7's in a Wave2 before rejoining the fray... might not be too far off??
Cheers
..........Kauri


----------



## eMark

*Re: PDN - Paladin Resources*



Kauri said:


> I have been waiting patiently for her to get back down to the $7's in a Wave2 before rejoining the fray... might not be too far off??
> Cheers
> ..........Kauri




Hi Kauri. From your analysis point of view, where are you looking at getting in? Or more to the point, where can you see wave 2 finishing? (7.22?) Where can you see it going from there?

At least PDN is still trading above it's 20 day MACD. 

I own PDN at it's recent venture into the 8 range. No I didn't sell.


----------



## Struzball

*Re: PDN - Paladin Resources*

Who has any idea where PDN will be in 5-10 years?
Is it a solid company or is it just gonna hover around 5-15 dollars and never grow..? 
When will they start making actual profits rather than losses?  
Will the price take off when that happens?  
Will they ever profit?

Thanks to whoever attempts these questions.


----------



## eMark

*Re: PDN - Paladin Resources*



eMark said:


> Hi Kauri. From your analysis point of view, where are you looking at getting in? Or more to the point, where can you see wave 2 finishing? (7.22?) Where can you see it going from there?
> 
> At least PDN is still trading above it's 20 day MACD.
> 
> I own PDN at it's recent venture into the 8 range. No I didn't sell.




Groan....Settling into the 7's again.... No rise in the U price, seems to have stole sentiment away pretty quickly with some of the U stocks this week. Let's hope it doesn't last too long? The neutral sentiment that is. 

Upcoming election could be another reason?

Frustrating.


----------



## goldensun76

*Re: PDN - Paladin Resources*

I thought the U price still up by $2..... now $92.......
This is the price as at 12 Nov...... the future of the U price for Dec is trading around $110....... I think this is a good indication that the U price should continue to move upward......


----------



## eMark

*Re: PDN - Paladin Resources*



rederob said:


> I have a re-entry bid at $7.50 to give myself a rounded 10K holding.




Well your opportunity is getting closer redrob.....

Can someone please explain to me why PDN's quarterly report for the period ending September 30th, has been released again today? It had already been released last month, maybe even earlier. Is it an update? An ammendment?

Also why is PDN suddenly drifting lower again?


----------



## goldensun76

*Re: PDN - Paladin Resources*

Well..... all I can say is that  I still believe the U price will continue to go up and there is nothing fundamentally wrong...... There is not much news in the quarterly report....... I got in at 7.71!!!  Hopefully it will rebound soon.....


----------



## Kauri

*Re: PDN - Paladin Resources*

PDN has dropped into what I think is the normal retracement zone in E/W-fibs.. which in itself is not a buy signal for me... But I will be keeping an eye out for basing/consolidation and a change in buyers/sellers actions to hint at a recovery in the price. Just in the possibile/potential folder currently.
Cheers
.........Kauri


----------



## Fab

*Re: PDN - Paladin Resources*

Looks like PDN hit the high of its bollinger band and went down to the bottom so I am assuming it will bounce back now.


----------



## Bush Trader

*Re: PDN - Paladin Resources*

This one is going to be volitile for some time.  Ageis slapped a sell on it this morning after comments last month that they held a positive long term view on the company.  Bell Potter still have a hold rating at this stage.  Other brokers info outlined below.

Cheers

BT


Paladin Still Buying In UraniumFN Arena News 

- November 20 2007 Greg Peel

The same thing has happened to BHP Billiton (BHP), as problems at Olympic Dam meant the company was unable to fulfil its forward contracts and was forced to buy in uranium oxide from the spot market. It has also happened to Paladin Resources ((PDN)), which admitted back in September the company was forced to buy 250klbs of oxide to satisfy its contracts.In the case of BHP, sales contracts have been longstanding. In the case of Paladin, sales contracts would have been written within the year. This means the company failed to allow for possible ramp-up problems - the sort of problems every new venture encounters. BHP is too big a diversified miner for anyone much to notice the difference, but for little Paladin it's sitting there glowing on the bottom line. Buy-ins cost the company US$12.2m in the September quarter.And there is more to come. Paladin had indicated the buy-ins weren't finished, and there would be more to come in the December quarter. ABN Amro assumes the volume required could be as much as 35-100klbs, which would cost the company between US$1.5m and US$5m. In September Paladin was buying spot uranium at US$130/lb - almost the top of the market - and selling it into contracts at US$80/lb. 

Thankfully the December quarter has brought a fall in the uranium price. Over the course of the quarter the spot uranium price fell as low as US$75/lb, although it has recently returned to US$93/lb.Adding in this anticipated loss with higher depreciation rates and higher corporate charges, ABN has reduced its FY08 profit forecast for Paladin by 22% from US$25.6m to US$19.9m. Profit forecasts for FY09-10 fall 2% on the depreciation rate. The end result is only a small change in target - from $7.84 to $7.72 - which incorporates an independent long term uranium price assumption of US$85-90/lb as provided by industry consultants TradeTech and Ux Consulting. ABN maintains a Hold rating.The risk is that further delays are experienced in Namibia, the broker says, but the upside is potential for an upgrade to reserves at either of the Namibian sites. Naturally Paladin's share price will also be influenced by movements in the uranium price either way. The TradeTech spot price has remained at US$93/lb for the third week running, and the consultants believe earlier days of extreme volatility have now abated. Buyers and sellers are becoming more wary and stubborn.

No one's said anything much about Queensland lately, where Paladin lays claim to the significant Valhalla and Skal reserves acquired via the takeover of Summit Resources. Last time we left that little debate, then premier Peter Beattie had been um-ing and ah-ing about whether or not he would lift the state's uranium mining ban. Just when we thought he had, the coal unions muscled in and the decision was reversed. Beattie had indicated he would run with federal Labor policy, but opposition leader Rudd threw the decision back to the states. So as it stands there is still a ban.However, Queensland now has a new premier (still Labor) and the federal Labor Party is looking like it will form a government next week. The impression back in April from the national Labor Party conference was that the uranium mining ban question might simply be put off to another day. The federal government has no right to force state government hands, otherwise the Coalition government would have lifted the ban across the country already. It is still unclear which way Rudd might go, and the uranium mining question has not been an election plank. Paladin also has tenements in Western Australia, but WA's premier Alan Carpenter has always adopted an "over my dead body" approach.

Paladin's share price has recently bounced from under $6 to over $8, only to be back at $7 again. The all time high is $10.80, at the height of uranium euphoria. The current average target price in the FNArena database is $7.83, on a spread of $6.40 (Macquarie, Neutral) to $9.05 (UBS, Buy). UBS remains the most bullish on the future uranium price.The B/H/S ratio is 2/2/1 from the five brokers covering the stock. GSJB Were is the Sell, with a target of $7.18 as it stands presently.


----------



## voigtstr

*Re: PDN - Paladin Resources*

So why is PDN falling to around 6.5? Is the market saying there is less opportunity for Paladin to make a profit selling uranium in the future?


----------



## tronic72

*Re: PDN - Paladin Resources*



voigtstr said:


> So why is PDN falling to around 6.5? Is the market saying there is less opportunity for Paladin to make a profit selling uranium in the future?




The above article pretty much explains it. Paladin ONLY do uranium and they aren't doing a great job at the moment. Due to the fact they can't full-fill their contracts, they are having to purchase high priced uranium from the Market which is eating into their bottom line big time.

Their share price was pushed to artificially high prices "at the eight of uranium euphoria" as explained above. I think their current price is not far off the mark given their lack of diversification. 

Bottom line; Paladin needs to prove it's self.


----------



## voigtstr

*Re: PDN - Paladin Resources*

So if 6.50 or thereabouts is fair value for its current situation, the situation should be better when Namibia is up to speed, and even better again when Kayelekera is brought on line?


----------



## 56gsa

*Re: PDN - Paladin Resources*

chartwise PDN looks to be coming to an interesting point ...

on the weekly we see the downtrend is being touched from above - if this doesn't provide support we could see $5.50 tested? 

and the daily looks almost H&Sish (although volume doesn't fit too well with that pattern) - following from the reverse H&S - so 2 necklines in play?


----------



## 2020hindsight

*Re: PDN - Paladin Resources*

just for the record 
here's PDN for the last 2 years (High Low Close) + averages 
Also PDN vs XAO for last 12 months (candlestix) + ditto (percent indicates relative preformance campared to datum of XAO)

PS I plan to do this to a few stocks - please feel free to either 
a) help out and divvy the job up between a few of us
b) suggest amendments to graphs
c) request some stocks you'd like me to post (maybe PM me)
d) tell me it's not necessary lol (or too wasteful of memory maybe?)


----------



## Kauri

*Re: PDN - Paladin Resources*

Just spending a few spare lazy minutes scrolling through my charts... seems PDN is getting interesting.... again
Cheers
..........Kauri


----------



## Black Range

*Deutsche Bank analysts target price of $8.25 for PDN*

Hot of the press from Todays Sydney Morning Herald.

Paladin now able to look for some bargains
January 15th, 2008


THE uranium producer Paladin Energy is expected to resume its focus on acquisitions now that it has overcome production issues at its brand new Langer Heinrich mine in Namibia.

The mine, one of the first of a new breed of uranium mines since a recent increase in the price of the nuclear fuel, was unable to meet its original production forecast last year after a failure of its leach tank liners.

"We were in suspension [as a company]," said the managing director of Paladin, John Borshoff. "We couldn't do other things until we got our credibility back and our performance where we said we would be."

Paladin yesterday said it had met its second-half production target of 295 tonnes of uranium from Langer Heinrich.

The mine's production is expected to reach its nameplate capacity of 1179 tonnes this year before a planned expansion to 1678 tonnes.

Mr Borshoff said the board expected to approve the $US40 million ($44.7 million) to $US50 million expansion next month and to complete construction by the end of the year.

"When you look at the guidance of all the uranium companies around the world today, Paladin is one of the few that is maintaining its guidance for 2008," he said. "I think that's a tremendous achievement."

The construction of Paladin's second mine, Kayelekera in Malawi, should be completed by the end of the year. Mr Borshoff said Paladin should produce about 1723 tonnes of uranium from the two mines next year, rising to 2267 tonnes in 2010.

The company, which last year bought the Queensland uranium explorer Summit Resources, has renewed its focus on acquisitions after working through the teething problems at Langer Heinrich.

Since the uranium spot price has fallen from last year's record high of $US138 a pound, the value of many uranium stocks has dived. Mr Borshoff said the drop in the uranium price to its current level of $US90 a pound was "not one iota" of a concern, with the projected strong demand for nuclear power. But the fall in the share prices of uranium companies may help Paladin further its ambitions of buying more projects, particularly in North America.

On Friday Deutsche Bank analysts deemed Paladin their "preferred pick" within the uranium sector with an $8.25 target price.

The analysts said: "We forecast strong earnings growth from the company's stated production guidance and recognise that further upside opportunities are available to the company via production expansions at both Langer Heinrich and Kayelekera."

Overnight on the TSX PDN Closed Up 31c To $5.80 Can. $6.338 Aus. ************* UP 5.65%

With Robert Healy as The major Shareholder of Black Range Minerals & Paladin Energy, Don't disregard BLR as a Bargain Priced target for PDN, BLRs Current Inferred Taylor Ranch Resources now stand at 80 Mill P/Lbs and Building, and yes its in Nth America.

Cheers from grant64

P.S For Day Traders This Trading Tool Is A Must Have.
http://www.turbotrader.net.au/
.
.
.
.


----------



## tronic72

*Re: Deutsche Bank analysts target price of $8.25 for PDN*

That's great news. I picked up 10000 CFDs yesterday at 595. Fingers crossed we'll have an up day as the DOW and NASDAQ both finished in positive territory early this morning. Unfortunately, anyone who's been in the market since November last year knows that doesn't mean anything at the moment.

:


----------



## Black Range

*Re: PDN - Paladin Resources*

PDN Holders, don't disregard the likes of a small Cap Company by the name of Black Range Minerals.

As noted in recent PDN Media report PDN are currently looking at opportunities within North America, and I suggest the likes of BLR & WHE fit the Buying credentials 

As you would know Robert Healy is a major Shareholder of BLR, as he is with PDN & DYL, and with a Inferred 72 Resource of over 80 Mill P/lbs at Taylor Ranch, and a Current small Market Cap of just $72 Mill., one would feel there is a good opportunity to take advantage, with the aid of Healys Major 12% Stake of BLR, and also Zac Rossi, who's also one of the major Shareholders of DYL.

Cheers from grant64 

My Current Long Term U3O8 Holdings are PDN AGS DYL BLR & The Mega uranium J/Ved SNU The rest are Day Traded.


----------



## pingkie_o

*Re: PDN - Paladin Resources*

I think similar to Summit resources takeover (to gain control of Mt. Isa)...PDN will takeover EME (to gain control of Birqli)

Opinion anyone?


----------



## Black Range

*Re: PDN - Paladin Resources*

Pingkie I think you have hit the nail on the head, & we may very well find out soon  

Cheers from grant64


----------



## tronic72

*Re: PDN - Paladin Resources*

Recently read this at: 

http://www.uranium-stocks.net/uranium-too-calm-for-comfort/

Uranium: Too Calm for Comfort!
Topic: Uranium ”” January 17th, 2008


At a time when oil appears to be grabbing all the headlines in the energy sector as it flirts with the $100/barrel level, uranium lazes in the corner like a dog who’s lost interest in going for a walk. Here we are in a commodities boom that some call a super cycle and the worlds future major player in energy adopts the roll of observer. True the price of uranium is still hovering around the $90/lb level which is more then enough for the quality uranium stocks to turn a decent profit. What surprises us is the lack of activity in the spot market for uranium.

“A few sellers continue to seek buyers” a quote from Tradetechs recent report. Down here in New Zealand we are having a heat wave but the weather patterns for the northern hemisphere appear to be fairly cold and wet thus the demand for heating and therefore electricity should be reasonably constant. So it raises the question of just where have all the buyers gone? Uranium was $138/lb at one point and then it fell to below $80/lb and has since drifted up to today’s spot price of $90/lb. Over on the futures market the range is from $88/lb to $94/lb which is fairly steady. This is either an interesting game of bluff or the utility companies actually have enough uranium to keep them operational for some time to come, hence their reluctance to be aggressive in their pursuance of supplies. Either way the effect on uranium stocks is to leave them languishing on the sidelines. Performance is about comparison and compared to gold and silver who’s associated stocks are generating terrific returns this sector lags behind. Its times like these that really test our resolve, why not cross the road and join their party? Its tempting isn’t it? Well the fundamentals in our view, are still in place, we don’t read about too many nuclear projects being cancelled do we!

We conclude that we are holding all of our uranium stocks and should a real bargain present itself we will buy again. This strategy is not for everyone and may not suit you, after all you are an individual and your circumstances are unique to you. Putting technical analysis and fundamental analysis to one side we are left with that old intangible ‘gut feel’ and it is said that fortune favours the brave so if you have balls of steel look to buy quality uranium stocks real soon.

Have a good one.


----------



## kevosero

*Re: PDN - Paladin Resources*

Found a little positive today....

http://www.fnarena.com/index2.cfm?type=dsp_newsitem&n=99D0995C-1871-E587-E11A1F9FED39CC19


Following a review on the sector Citi has taken a bullish outlook on uranium given the increase in global nuclear power capacity and green house gas emission concerns, the broker initiating coverage on both Energy Resources of Australia (ERA) and Paladin ((PDN)) with Buy ratings.

For the industry as a whole the broker suggests the increased capacity can mean only an increase in demand for uranium going forward, which should prove supportive for prices. When constrained supply, depleted inventory levels and fund buying is added to the mix the picture being painted seems to be one of higher prices in coming years.

As a result Citi expects uranium prices to again push through the US$100 per pound level this year and in 2009, after having run as high as US$138 per pound in 2007 before sliding back to well below the US$100 per pound level.

Both the major Australian uranium producing stocks are seen as well placed to benefit from this strengthening in prices as production is set to increase for both companies, ERA to an expected 6,000 tonnes this year from a rain-affected 5,400 tonnes last year and Paladin as Langer Heinrich gears up to full production levels.

Additionally in PaladinÃ¢â‚¬™s case there is a second mine, Kayelekera, due to commence production in 2009, along with a number of advanced projects in Australia where production remains possible assuming current government restrictions on uranium mining are amended.

A positive factor for both companies is decent leverage to the uranium price, in the case of ERA as existing contracts expire and are renegotiated at prices closer to current spot levels rather than at an average of about US$20 per pound as has been the case.

Paladin benefits from having few legacy contracts, meaning it already is well placed to benefit from stronger spot prices at the same time as it boosts output, Citi expecting 2009 production for the company to be in the order of 1,700 tonnes against an expected 1,180 tonnes this year.

This flows through into a solid earnings growth outlook for both companies, the broker forecasting EPS (earnings per share) for ERA to increase from the 22.9c recorded in 2006 to 42c for the 2007 year, 67.2c in 2008 and 152.3c in 2009.

With the company having little debt and with cash flows strengthening the broker sees scope for shareholders to be rewarded via increased returns, with capital management a possibility given dividends are expected to remain modest.

For Paladin the broker is forecasting EPS in US dollar terms of 6c per share in 2008 and 22c in 2009, which compares with a loss of 7.6c per share in 2006. With the development of Kayelekera continuing little is expected in the way of dividends over the next couple of years.

Apart from stronger spot prices there is some valuation upside in both stocks from exploration success in the brokerÃ¢â‚¬™s view, as in the case of ERA it points out while mining at Ranger is currently expected to continue until 2012 this is likely to be extended to at least 2016 and maybe through 2020 if an underground mine is approved or further reserves are proved up. The Jabiluka asset also offers some upside for the company in coming years.

Paladin offers a similar story as the Langer Heinrich operation has a current mine life of around 10 years but there remains significant exploration potential in surrounding areas, while recent acquisitions by the company suggest it remains in expansion mode. The broker also points out the stock is a possible target within the sector given further consolidation among uranium players globally can be expected in coming years.

In terms of relative pricing ERA appears the cheaper of the two at present given its legacy contracts, while the brokerÃ¢â‚¬™s valuations for the two stocks stand at $19.60 for ERA and $5.90 for Paladin.

Using this as a base the broker has set price targets of $26.00 and $7.70 respectively on the two companies, while the FNArena database shows average price targets of $23.66 and $7.80.

CitiÃ¢â‚¬™s coverage of the sector comes at a time of increased interest in the sector as ERA has recently been upgraded to Buy from Neutral by UBS and to Accumulate from Hold by Aspect Huntley. Overall ERA is rated as Buy five times, Accumulate once and Hold twice, while Paladin scores three Buy and three Hold ratings.

Shares in both stocks are weaker this morning in line with the broader market and as at 11.40am ERA was trading down 59c at $19.91 and Paladin was down 34c at $5.05.


----------



## DionM

*Re: PDN - Paladin Resources*

So much for targets and broker advice eh.

PDN now sub $4 after massive slide today.


Then again, PDN has always been pretty volatile in price ...


----------



## pingkie_o

*Re: PDN - Paladin Resources*

The slide is not stock related....it is market related....FEAR....everyone is dumping shares at whatever price...it is unreasonably overdone

PDN fundamentally still very good especially at this level. When uranium spot price back to above $100....market will re rate all uranium stocks as it is not affected by the sub prime issues.


----------



## voigtstr

*Re: PDN - Paladin Resources*

So at these prices would you still wait to see a definite uptrend before buying more, or would you just say well this is low enough!

I bought a small amount at 7.25, I would love to buy some more at 4.5 or lower to average the price lower, but again I would only be able to scrounge together a small amount, approx $1200. 

Reckon its worth it?


----------



## pingkie_o

*Re: PDN - Paladin Resources*

I have too much exposure in uranium stock already but if I have money....yes, I would buy at this level...to enter at $5 is certainly less risky than to enter at $7...

However, there is always a risk no matter how cheap you enter...volatility and uncertainty is very high at the moment... 

say you enter at $5 but the market panic again the next day and punishes uranium stock because they're somehow "related" to sub prime...

nobody can pick up at the bottom consistently (maybe lucky one or two times) who cares if it goes to $3 the next day if FUNDAMENTALLY we are so confident this stock gonna go up to $10 in 12 months?

nobody can see the future...but the question is 

in GENERAL
what am i really buying with my money? 
what is the value of the underlying business? 
can i afford to lock in my money in this thing for 1 to 5 years?
can i stomach the ups and downs along the way? 
can i sleep if it goes to $1?

in SPECIFIC
who is the person at the steering wheel? 
what's your view of the macro factor of the business (eg uranium price, the $A, mining risks)and micro factor (production problems, legals, hedging book)

I am a fundamental person as opposed to chartist...I looked at chart just to see the past performance not to make trades decision

To reduce risk, you can also write covered call. At least, you'll have some income.


----------



## ironchef

*Re: PDN - Paladin Resources*

Good overnight performance in Canada for PDN, up ~5% expect green on the ASX . 

I don't understand this uranium spot price business. Who determines this price? How often does it updated and where can this up to date information be attained?

I know of http://www.uxc.com/review/uxc_Prices.aspx I notice it says weekly price, but sometimes two weeks would pass by and nothing has changed on the site... Is there another source for this price?


----------



## imaginator

*Re: PDN - Paladin Resources*



ironchef said:


> Good overnight performance in Canada for PDN, up ~5% expect green on the ASX .
> 
> I don't understand this uranium spot price business. Who determines this price? How often does it updated and where can this up to date information be attained?
> 
> I know of http://www.uxc.com/review/uxc_Prices.aspx I notice it says weekly price, but sometimes two weeks would pass by and nothing has changed on the site... Is there another source for this price?




PDN jumped today 5.11 now. Can someone do a chart analysis?

I cant see any chart, something wrong with my commsec browser...


----------



## voigtstr

*Re: PDN - Paladin Resources*

I originally had 161 of PDN at 7.25
Yesterday I bought 242 of PDN at 4.8

I think that averages my price down to 5.779 (according to etrade)

So I'm happy for now!


----------



## Fab

*Re: PDN - Paladin Resources*

Why is it down almost 5% today. I thought today annoucement was very good  I can' t understand the reason of this drop


----------



## Sean K

*Re: PDN - Paladin Resources*



Fab said:


> Why is it down almost 5% today. I thought today annoucement was very good  I can' t understand the reason of this drop



Yes, good that it's producing to plan. Market's a bit flighty at the moment, perhaps punters expected above forecast production rates? Was there anything in the outlook to write it down a bit? Wonder ir RIO or someone wanting to boost U production is looking at it?


----------



## tronic72

*Re: PDN - Paladin Resources*



kennas said:


> Yes, good that it's producing to plan. Market's a bit flighty at the moment, perhaps punters expected above forecast production rates? Was there anything in the outlook to write it down a bit? Wonder ir RIO or someone wanting to boost U production is looking at it?




I agree. 

Market is down and it's a miner so it's gonna follow the market heavies such as BHP & RIO. You have to remember the uranium price has taken a bit of a hiding recently so that's also a factor. I'll buy at anything under 4.75.


----------



## alankew

*Re: PDN - Paladin Resources*

This seems to get hammered on the slightest bit of doubt in punters minds be it here or US.Also notice a robot buyer and seller which seems to come into play on down days-bot seller appears to be winning atm,would this suggest that someone is keen to buy at these prices.Annual report looks fine,nothing tha i can see that is a problem and problems seem to be behing them.U price on Kitco is also down slightly


----------



## dj_420

*Re: PDN - Paladin Resources*

The sell down is a bit bizarre as within the report it states:



> Production from the IX section to the dryer/precipitation circuit averaged 7,692lb U3O8 per day for December (i.e. nameplate), including an average of 10,470lb per day from 21 December when three of the four new IX columns were put on-line.




I read this as that the dryer/precipitation circuit is now operating above nameplate production as of 21 Dec. If we take this average as a future guidance we get 314, 100 pounds per month which is a significant increase over 215, 984 as of last quarter. 

I don't know if this increase is only found in one area of the plant or throughout the whole process. Any further verification would be greatly appreciated.


----------



## voigtstr

*Re: PDN - Paladin Resources*

I think its down simply because the whole market is down. I bought back in at 4.8  Anything over 5.779 will be positive territory for me now.


----------



## imaginator

*Re: PDN - Paladin Resources*

CITI GROUP INITIATES ERA AND PALADIN COVERAGE
*****************************************

Uranium back to >$100/lb

Paladin a buy with Target Price A$7.70

ERA a buy with Target Price A$26.00

Paladin both predator and prey

Attached is a copy of CITI's Report for January 2008

How do i attach a pdf?


----------



## Fab

*Re: PDN - Paladin Resources*

PDN is definetely a prey at this price I would think. Specially if it keeps falling that much. I am surprised it is still trending down specially after report that production is back on target


----------



## imaginator

*Re: PDN - Paladin Resources*



Fab said:


> PDN is definetely a prey at this price I would think. Specially if it keeps falling that much. I am surprised it is still trending down specially after report that production is back on target




Whats happenign to PDN dude? 
Report out, 
Market up,
Citigroup says its good, 
AND it does what?


----------



## Real1ty

*Re: PDN - Paladin Resources*



imaginator said:


> Whats happenign to PDN dude?
> Report out,
> Market up,
> Citigroup says its good,
> AND it does what?




I would hazard a guess there are a couple of things involved.

Global slowdown fears in a declining sharemarket

Spot prices are trending lower, currently $78.00, even though PDN have contracts, they are still tied into the spot somehow, but from memory it is on the up side, but i'm not sure on that


----------



## shag

*Re: PDN - Paladin Resources*



imaginator said:


> Whats happenign to PDN dude?
> Report out,
> Market up,
> Citigroup says its good,
> AND it does what?



its a real dog, and i have to sell the near worthless paper for a house deposit.
what a time to tank.
they will match bmn's price soon. and ext's later if this keeps up.


----------



## hoppielimp

*Re: PDN - Paladin Resources*

I shud have sold at $10...but I just bailed...I went along for the ride and didn't do any numbers...but I just did.

at 2.6 mill lb's and at the current down trend in the U price and 613 million shares out there, even with a p/e of about 15 I strugle to get to a share price of 4.50

Now I know they are looking to increase production to about 3.7 million lb's by the end of 2008, so maybe it shud be trading about $6-7 if you are pricing forward.

For me I may sit on the sidelines again, as i think kitco published an article about how there is over 2mill pounds of U on the market with about the demand for only 500,000lbs, which will put spot prices under more pressure.

I still think U has a good future, but they need to get more reactors up and running !

This is just my view on PDN so don't take it as gospel.

Hop


----------



## Rafa

*Re: PDN - Paladin Resources*



shag said:


> they will match bmn's price soon. and ext's later if this keeps up.




PDN market capitalisation is 3billion mate... BMN and EXT have a long way to go to match that....



Would have thought PDN is a no brainer at these prices, but only becuase of its historical prices... would love is someone could do fundamental analysis given its present state... cause technically... this stock has a while to fall... i am seeing a reasonable support line at $4 dollars... with major support at 3.50... ish.


----------



## imaginator

*Re: PDN - Paladin Resources*



Rafa said:


> PDN market capitalisation is 3billion mate... BMN and EXT have a long way to go to match that....
> 
> 
> 
> Would have thought PDN is a no brainer at these prices, but only becuase of its historical prices... would love is someone could do fundamental analysis given its present state... cause technically... this stock has a while to fall... i am seeing a reasonable support line at $4 dollars... with major support at 3.50... ish.





Can someone post some reference about U spot price that supply is more than demand?

Last time i read about U is that uranium is in big demand.


----------



## imaginator

*Re: PDN - Paladin Resources*



imaginator said:


> Can someone post some reference about U spot price that supply is more than demand?
> 
> Last time i read about U is that uranium is in big demand.




Hey I just saw Citigroup's prediction for SPOT Uranium to go up OVER US$100/lb in 2008.

I dont know how to put that report up here, its in pdf format. Can someone gimme their email address, I will send to you and you can post it here.


----------



## hoppielimp

*Re: PDN - Paladin Resources*

http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601012&sid=arPuUFTUhfGg&refer=commodities

If this link doesn't work then copy it and paste it in your address bar...
It from Kitco but its a bloomberg article...


----------



## imaginator

*Re: PDN - Paladin Resources*

This morning PDN's a winner!

From 4.58 up to 4.7

Does anyone know the reason?

I guess its better than yesterday!


----------



## Fab

*Re: PDN - Paladin Resources*



imaginator said:


> This morning PDN's a winner!
> 
> From 4.58 up to 4.7
> 
> Does anyone know the reason?
> 
> I guess its better than yesterday!




I am assuming ERA results have something to do with it. Also PDN got hammered recently for no reason in my opinion. ERA also mentioned in their statement that U outlook is positive. Price target for PDN is between $6.50 - $7.70 from most broker so it looks very cheap at current level


----------



## voigtstr

*Re: PDN - Paladin Resources*



Fab said:


> I am assuming ERA results have something to do with it. Also PDN got hammered recently for no reason in my opinion. ERA also mentioned in their statement that U outlook is positive. Price target for PDN is between $6.50 - $7.70 from most broker so it looks very cheap at current level




I got 161 units of PDN back in September at 7.25.  The day after it was at its lowest (and my money had cleared) on the 24th of January, I bought another 242 units at 4.80.

I'll be very happy when PDN goes above 7.25 again


----------



## kevosero

*Re: PDN - Paladin Resources*

Finally something to cheer about today up 10%, at least for now. Anybody know  what the fuss is about, maybe I've missed something....


----------



## shag

*Re: PDN - Paladin Resources*

Yes somethings definitely up. I can't find any news but it keeps popping above 5.20 as if a big buyer is getting into it. Decent volumes.
Hedgefunds getting in for a takeover kennas?


----------



## imaginator

*Re: PDN - Paladin Resources*

err,
PDN this morning 5.2, suddenly 4.77?

Did they release some ann?

or just a sudden diarrhoea of SP


----------



## dj_420

*Re: PDN - Paladin Resources*



imaginator said:


> err,
> PDN this morning 5.2, suddenly 4.77?
> 
> Did they release some ann?
> 
> or just a sudden diarrhoea of SP




Looks like it has been a good one to trade on the swings. Just got to pick the up and down days!

As far as I know nothing has changed, they have reached nameplate production which I am very happy with. Not many other uranium producers actually got to reach plant capacity.


----------



## 56gsa

*Re: PDN - Paladin Resources*

PDN had a rise today (along with ERA and some other uraniums)
- weekly chart suggests this is coming off a support and pushed above the $5.15 line today - resistance possibly at $5.70-5.80 in short term

Charlie Aitken very bullish on PDN last week in Eureka report...



> Paladin is in the early stages of a significant rerating or alternatively a highly attractive takeover target. Make no mistake: In the future I think Paladin will be as dominant in the uranium market as Rio is in iron-ore industry.
> 
> I expect Paladin to report a maiden profit for 2007-08 of $32.6 million, rising to $167.9 million in 2008-09 and of $385.5 million in 2009-10. On my figures, Paladin is generating 2008-09 earnings per share growth of 400% while trading on a price/earnings multiple of 18.5 times. In contrast, Woolworths is trading on a 2008-09 multiple of 21 times, on low double-digit earnings per share growth in a weakening domestic consumer environment.
> 
> My valuation is $5.23 and 12 month target is $7.85, based on a global average of 1.5 times net present value (NPV) for the uranium sector. However, the upside case is reflected with a rise in valuation to $6.92 or a long-term target of $10.38, based a long-term uranium price of $US90 a pound. It is currently $US95.
> 
> Where do you buy a company with a leading industry position, expected to be producing 5% of the global mine production of a strategic commodity within two years, and trading at a discount to our current 12 month NPV? The answer is nowhere. I think Chinalco paid the wrong price for the wrong company! I think Paladin is a strong Buy and I am happy to buy from forced sellers at these levels.


----------



## panikhide

*Re: PDN - Paladin Resources*

Paladin is up 10% today (after jumping 12% earlier in the week) seemingly only on the announcement that bank approval has been obtained for the remaining funding component required to develop the Kayelekera Uranium Project in Malawi ($167M).


----------



## exgeo

*Re: PDN - Paladin Resources*

It seems to me that all the larger uraniums have been rising a bit lately. Perhaps this is finally the long-awaited market bottom? SMM and EME are both up as well lately, as are most of the stocks on a canadian uranium co. watchlist that I maintain (Laramide, DML, Mega etc).


----------



## panikhide

*Re: PDN - Paladin Resources*



exgeo said:


> It seems to me that all the larger uraniums have been rising a bit lately. Perhaps this is finally the long-awaited market bottom? SMM and EME are both up as well lately, as are most of the stocks on a canadian uranium co. watchlist that I maintain (Laramide, DML, Mega etc).




It's also interesting is that smaller uranium companies and market darlings, PNN and BMN, have not followed suit.


----------



## Fab

*Re: PDN - Paladin Resources*



panikhide said:


> It's also interesting is that smaller uranium companies and market darlings, PNN and BMN, have not followed suit.




Maybe now investors are making the difference between producers such as PDN and ERA and potential producer.

PDN is in another league and as Charlie mentioned it is probably a future equivalent to BHP or RIO in the Uranium area if you can compare it that way.

Still PDN is far far away from its high above $10. Very good recovery sign so.


----------



## exgeo

*Re: PDN - Paladin Resources*

Well I guess it's not surprising that the bigger names move first. A kind of stockmarket equivalent of "nobody ever got fired for buying IBM". If it's a genuine recovery in uranium stocks then I'd expect it to start to move down the food chain after an interval. Anyway, I've been nibbling at GBE, BLR, UKL in the last few days. They all have genuine projects and some cash to spend on them. The bull case for uranium is unchanged, it's just that hedge funds have been forced to dump stocks and uranium metal for any price they can get (or so I read).


----------



## Fab

*Re: PDN - Paladin Resources*



exgeo said:


> Well I guess it's not surprising that the bigger names move first. A kind of stockmarket equivalent of "nobody ever got fired for buying IBM". If it's a genuine recovery in uranium stocks then I'd expect it to start to move down the food chain after an interval. Anyway, I've been nibbling at GBE, BLR, UKL in the last few days. They all have genuine projects and some cash to spend on them. The bull case for uranium is unchanged, it's just that hedge funds have been forced to dump stocks and uranium metal for any price they can get (or so I read).




Sounds like hedge fund had to dump a lot of stocks in a lot of areas. I read they had to dump in the financial sector that is why MQG is so cheap (would not be surprise if we see MQG jump the same way in the near future) and also I read that they had to dump BHP recently too


----------



## gfresh

*Re: PDN - Paladin Resources*

Has been some press on nuclear recently.. UK forging ahead with nuclear plants for it's energy needs, to achieve greenhouse targets..

http://www.iht.com/articles/reuters/2008/02/13/business/OUKBS-UK-BRITISHENERGY.php

of importance: 

_...On January 10, Britain gave the go-ahead to a new generation of nuclear power stations, setting no limits on nuclear expansion and adding momentum to atomic energy's worldwide renaissance._


----------



## voigtstr

*Re: PDN - Paladin Resources*

Its good to see PDN at 6.00. Its now above my averaged price of 5.779 (having bought some at 4.80 in the dip).

I look forward to the day they start paying dividends


----------



## Fab

*Re: PDN - Paladin Resources*



voigtstr said:


> Its good to see PDN at 6.00. Its now above my averaged price of 5.779 (having bought some at 4.80 in the dip).
> 
> I look forward to the day they start paying dividends




There is still a lot of upside to this stock I believe. Has anyone read the half year report. The result must be good as PDN annouced it after close of the asx yesterday and on the TSX PDN is up over 6%. It might get back to $10 soon. A long way I know.


----------



## 56gsa

*Re: PDN - Paladin Resources*

pdn awarded the Angela and Pamela uranium deposits - am i reading this right - does the ref below mean they think it has 13,000t of U ie 26.4 m pounds (this is not JORC - but would be a significant deposit if it is??)




> Extensive evaluation work was undertaken on the Angela and Pamela uranium deposits by Uranerz Australia Pty Ltd between 1972 and 1983. Historic uranium mineralization defined at the time comprised approximately 12,000t to 13,000t of U3O8 in the general range of 0.10% to 0.13% U3O8 and remains open at depth. Paladin owns all the original drill hole data for the deposit, including geology, geochemistry, down-hole gamma surveys and feasibility studies. This information, together with the Company’s extensive in-house knowledge of the deposits, will enable the Joint Venture to move rapidly into pre-feasibility assessment.


----------



## Fab

*Re: PDN - Paladin Resources*

Does anyone know why PDN is up in big volume today whereas all the rest of the market is down? Insider trading?
U spot price is also down $2. Does not makes sense to me.


----------



## alankew

*Re: PDN - Paladin Resources*

Picked this up elsewhere"Trade Tech reported Uranium One have downgraded their production forecasts for 2008/2009. This has lead to jump in other Uranium suppliers. This news may be a few days old but maybe the impact is kicking on.
Their trouble is progress in South Africa and the power outages there"


----------



## Fab

*Re: PDN - Paladin Resources*

Could be that then. Good to see PDN powering up again. $6 was a bit of a resistance point I hope it will power up now


----------



## Fab

*Re: PDN - Paladin Resources*

Looking good at the moment. PDN is on a roll. Does anyone know what is happening with PDN ??
Nothing fundamental seems to have changed in the U sector


----------



## voigtstr

*Re: PDN - Paladin Resources*

Over the last 3 days Paladin has been hammered again. Does anyone know why this is?

As of yesterday it was below my average price of 5.77


----------



## treefrog

*Re: PDN - Paladin Resources*

watch this one today - may break strong support line of 540 - then its down to next level of 420 again


----------



## Fab

*Re: PDN - Paladin Resources*

What is happening with this one. It is a good company but U stocks seems to be out of favor. Might become a very attractive takeover target at this price.


----------



## shinobi346

*Re: PDN - Paladin Resources*

Theres a good read on the MTN forum right now where someones posted a good  article about greenies possibly changing the way they look at U. 

https://www.aussiestockforums.com/forums/showpost.php?p=278574&postcount=1191


----------



## pingkie_o

*Re: PDN - Paladin Resources*

PDN at the moment is quite vulnerable to be a target....to defend itself, PDN may be looking at a smaller company to take over

The question is which one?

The company must present good synergy to justify the premium PDN will be paying. 

Similar to Summit (SMM) takeover, I believe Energy Metals (EME) asset will be very appealing for PDN 
1. The Birqli tenement is world class and PDN already own minority ownership...so to take 51% control would not be hard
2. EME's Birqli is a smaller tenement than SMM's Mt. Isa....PDN can easily swallow it without much borrowing/ raising capital
3. Uranium price in general most likely will go up so it makes the purchase very profitable in the future, especially at current level. 

Any opinion?


----------



## peteai

*Re: PDN - Paladin Resources*

*What's caused PDN to drop so much ?*

- it is a producer with proven results 
- its projected to reach 10 million pounds per annum in a few years
-  at $50 proft per pound that would equate to $500 million profit.

These are not pie in the sky numbers from an explorer they could even be exceeded. And there production is likely to grow further from there

Isn't it Market Cap at $2.8 billion cheap ??

My guess is we will underestimate the number of reactors being built by 2020 which will add to the rapid growth in demand.
__
PETEAI


----------



## treefrog

*Re: PDN - Paladin Resources*



peteai said:


> *What's caused PDN to drop so much ?*
> 
> - it is a producer with proven results
> - its projected to reach 10 million pounds per annum in a few years
> -  at $50 proft per pound that would equate to $500 million profit.
> 
> These are not pie in the sky numbers from an explorer they could even be exceeded. And there production is likely to grow further from there
> 
> Isn't it Market Cap at $2.8 billion cheap ??
> 
> My guess is we will underestimate the number of reactors being built by 2020 which will add to the rapid growth in demand.
> __
> PETEAI




10c divvy on a $4 share is returning 2.5%
10c on the 602mil shares is $60.2 mil to the shareholders pa so would need what - all of your $500m profit I would suggest so $4 seems about right for this sort of return "in a few years" don't you think??


----------



## reece55

*Re: PDN - Paladin Resources*



treefrog said:


> 10c divvy on a $4 share is returning 2.5%
> 10c on the 602mil shares is $60.2 mil to the shareholders pa so would need what - all of your $500m profit I would suggest so $4 seems about right for this sort of return "in a few years" don't you think??




Treefrog
I'm not sure that a dividend valuation model is very suitable for Paladin mate....

Dividend price models are traditionally used for more stable or mature growth companies. Paladin clearly is a growth company, who is likely to withhold dividend receipts because it can re-invest its funds at a much high rate of return than its cost of capital. Your analogy is like comparing Telstra to say BHP on the basis of their dividend - on paper, your maths would have had Telstra up on BHP 3 years ago - we all know who has performed better!

Petai, fan of the Uranium stocks I see. The simple fact with Paladin is that we are just not quite certain how quickly they can get Langer up to 10 Mil, currently it's sitting at 2.6, 3.7 by next year and perhaps six the year after. The problem with the Paladin equation is that there are so many variables here - how fast can they get up to 10 mil, what is the likely capital cost incurred to get them there, what is the U price they will end up receiving, will there be large Opex increases for them (probably the biggest issue for the mining industry in general, most estimates I see going around at the moment seem to suggest Opex inflation is huge, particularly in such a specialised industry like the U sector which requires knowledgeable staff that are hard to come by)... Hence why I haven't bothered to attempt a DCF here.....

This leads me to think that Paladin is still and will be for some time a stock driven by momentum, rather than fundamentals. And momentum wise, this stock has been in a downtrend for some 1.3 years, have a look at my posts back when PDN was at 9 and 7 bucks. However, just below 4 appears now to be very strong support and therefore perhaps a consolidation/accumulation will come shortly.  What I will say is that with the development pipeline they have, the market capitalisation they currently command is very conservative (i.e. seems to factor in only Langer and a tiny bit of upside). So, it is attractive from a fundamental view point. But as always, it is best to wait for the technical view to align with the fundamentals, unless you are extremely patient and are confident of your fundamental price estimate.

Cheers


----------



## treefrog

*Re: PDN - Paladin Resources*



reece55 said:


> Treefrog
> I'm not sure that a dividend valuation model is very suitable for Paladin mate....
> 
> Dividend price models are traditionally used for more stable or mature growth companies. Paladin clearly is a growth company, who is likely to withhold dividend receipts because it can re-invest its funds at a much high rate of return than its cost of capital. Your analogy is like comparing Telstra to say BHP on the basis of their dividend - on paper, your maths would have had Telstra up on BHP 3 years ago - we all know who has performed better!
> 
> Cheers




agree reece - was citing only to point out that growth stocks tend to come back to reality in bad times and PDN seems to be doing this - not a good idea to argue with the market for mine

NWS also a growth stock


----------



## peteai

*Re: PDN - Paladin Resources*



reece55 said:


> Treefrog
> I'm not sure that a dividend valuation model is very suitable for Paladin mate....
> 
> Dividend price models are traditionally used for more stable or mature growth companies. Paladin clearly is a growth company, who is likely to withhold dividend receipts because it can re-invest its funds at a much high rate of return than its cost of capital. Your analogy is like comparing Telstra to say BHP on the basis of their dividend - on paper, your maths would have had Telstra up on BHP 3 years ago - we all know who has performed better!
> 
> Petai, fan of the Uranium stocks I see. The simple fact with Paladin is that we are just not quite certain how quickly they can get Langer up to 10 Mil, currently it's sitting at 2.6, 3.7 by next year and perhaps six the year after. The problem with the Paladin equation is that there are so many variables here - how fast can they get up to 10 mil, what is the likely capital cost incurred to get them there, what is the U price they will end up receiving, will there be large Opex increases for them (probably the biggest issue for the mining industry in general, most estimates I see going around at the moment seem to suggest Opex inflation is huge, particularly in such a specialised industry like the U sector which requires knowledgeable staff that are hard to come by)... Hence why I haven't bothered to attempt a DCF here.....
> 
> This leads me to think that Paladin is still and will be for some time a stock driven by momentum, rather than fundamentals. And momentum wise, this stock has been in a downtrend for some 1.3 years, have a look at my posts back when PDN was at 9 and 7 bucks. However, just below 4 appears now to be very strong support and therefore perhaps a consolidation/accumulation will come shortly.  What I will say is that with the development pipeline they have, the market capitalisation they currently command is very conservative (i.e. seems to factor in only Langer and a tiny bit of upside). So, it is attractive from a fundamental view point. But as always, it is best to wait for the technical view to align with the fundamentals, unless you are extremely patient and are confident of your fundamental price estimate.
> 
> Cheers




Reece & Treefrog,

Yes I have to admit I have a soft spot for Uranium. I guess because I have research the industry, I am following that basic principle - Invest in what you understand.

I have some financial investments I made recently when the PE went below 10 However I feel there are more unknowns there for me, what the sub-prime can do from here - who knows ??

PDN has a lot of projects in the pipeline and including expanding Langer Heinrich to 6mil pound. I bought it when it came off the low 4s. If you compare the situation when PDN was above 10, PDN has the experience of bringing Langer Heinrich up to 2.6 so we can have higher expenctation of PDN delivering.  
I agree that OPEX is an issue but 

they do not have tight margins
 U is a very small part of reactor running costs & expensive to stop
Financing costs for PDN should be lower for PDN compared to its competitors now it has delivered
If Opex becomes an industry wide issue the industry would probably get higher prices for U -given the state of the  market

In summary, no company is a no risk investment. On balance PDN should start delivering bigger & bigger profits at which point the current SP $4.32 will look cheap.
I agree with you REECE  in the short term moment could even drive PDN below $4. I would love to see a $3 in front of the SP, at  which point I will be in there buying


----------



## Gurgler

*Re: PDN - Paladin Resources*



peteai said:


> *What's caused PDN to drop so much ?*
> 
> __
> PETEAI




Herein may lie one possible answer: flow-on effect from the Lift debacle:

*Dual listed uranium miner Paladin Energy believes a surge in the trading of its shares may be due to speculation surrounding Lift Capital Partners Pty Ltd being put into administration.

McGrathNicol was appointed as administrator of Lift Capital, a privately owned margin loan specialist, on Thursday.
This prompted financial backer Merrill Lynch to appropriate shares held by Lift, including Paladin shares.

Two Paladin directors, Rick Crabb and Gillian Swaby, launched legal action against Merrill Lynch and Lift on Friday, seeking to prevent Merrill Lynch from liquidating the shares.

A hearing of the matter in the Federal Court in Perth today was held over until Wednesday.*

Full text: http://business.theage.com.au/paladin-energy-shares-hurt-by-lift-jam/20080414-260d.html


----------



## treefrog

*Re: PDN - Paladin Resources*

"JOHANNESBURG (Business Day) -- Global warming, rapid economic growth in emerging economies such as India and China and delayed investment worldwide in new generating capacity, have resulted in a great number of new nuclear power stations being planned around the world. 

Asian countries are leading the way and about 30 nuclear reactors are expected to be built in China by 2020, while Japan, India and Pakistan each have several more reactors on their drawing boards.

The rush to build nuclear plants has contributed to the substantially higher price of uranium over the past three years. So it is no surprise that construction companies are warning that nuclear power plant programmes may be delayed by equipment supply constraints. 

The production of nuclear power plants may be stalled because of a backlog at Japan Steel Works.  The company makes four a year. A shift to double capacity will not be enough to meet demand. 

In Finland, the construction of a new technology reactor has been delayed for two years. The nuclear industry globally has a history of cost and time overruns. It is something that Eskom is going to have to manage very carefully indeed.

Investors in uranium explorers and miners will also be thinking twice about the risk this delayed consumption poses to the cheery projections of massive near-term demand increases."


----------



## peteai

*Re: PDN - Paladin Resources*



treefrog said:


> "JOHANNESBURG (Business Day) -- Global warming, rapid economic growth in emerging economies such as India and China and delayed investment worldwide in new generating capacity, have resulted in a great number of new nuclear power stations being planned around the world.
> 
> Asian countries are leading the way and about 30 nuclear reactors are expected to be built in China by 2020, while Japan, India and Pakistan each have several more reactors on their drawing boards.
> 
> The rush to build nuclear plants has contributed to the substantially higher price of uranium over the past three years. So it is no surprise that construction companies are warning that nuclear power plant programmes may be delayed by equipment supply constraints.
> 
> The production of nuclear power plants may be stalled because of a backlog at Japan Steel Works.  The company makes four a year. A shift to double capacity will not be enough to meet demand.
> 
> In Finland, the construction of a new technology reactor has been delayed for two years. The nuclear industry globally has a history of cost and time overruns. It is something that Eskom is going to have to manage very carefully indeed.
> 
> Investors in uranium explorers and miners will also be thinking twice about the risk this delayed consumption poses to the cheery projections of massive near-term demand increases."




Hi Treefrog,

It is an interesting issue, I came across this about a month ago.
However, I find it curious that *unprecedented *demand for reactors whereby capacity even at double shift can't keep up, means pessimism for U demand. I make 2 points 

at start-up reactors use 3 years worth of Uranium  so a surge of reactors starts will lead to bigger surge in Uranium demand

If Japan Steel works finds double shifts can not keep up with demand - it will find other ways to expand capacity OR  others will
Sure, expanding the capacity will take time, but with billions at stake directly (or indirectly) a way will be found.

Cheers,
PETEAI


----------



## spooly74

*Re: PDN - Paladin Resources*

It is worth noting though that the new generation of reactors will be more efficient.
Typically since the 70`s, reactor burn up rates have doubled to 40GWd/tU.
The new reactors on order are looking at burn rates of over 60GWd/tU, an increase in efficiency of more than 30%.
At these rates uranium rods should last a year longer than todays best.



> Burn up rate is the amount of electricity from a given amount of fuel, expressed in gigawatt-days per tonne of U ...GWd/tU


----------



## Go Nuke

*Re: PDN - Paladin Resources*

Might be old news guys but thought I would post this article from the Australian on April 15th about Paladin and the Merrill Lynch fiasco.

http://www.theaustralian.news.com.au/story/0,25197,23541042-5005200,00.html


----------



## treefrog

*Re: PDN - Paladin Resources*



peteai said:


> *What's caused PDN to drop so much ?*
> 
> - it is a producer with proven results
> - its projected to reach 10 million pounds per annum in a few years
> -  at $50 proft per pound that would equate to $500 million profit.
> 
> PETEAI




the following trend may also be a significant factor:

FN arena news 1 apr 08
Dynamics in the spot uranium market are changing with buyers confidently holding out and sellers looking for a way out

FN arena news 08 apr 08
No transactions concluded and no new demand appearing. That's pretty much all there is to say about uramium right now.

FN arena news 09 apr 08
Just when you thought the bottom had been reached, market watchers and participants believe prices are likely to drop further.

FN arean news 15 apr 08
Its a straightfoward case of supply exceeding demand that keeps the pressure on spot prices for yellow cake. The past week saw another fall.

FN arean news 17 apr 08
The slide in spot uranium continues with industry consultant UxC slicing a bit further than peer TradeTech.

so if WNA have it right with their projection that demand/supply is pretty much in balance until after 2010, these "games" can go on for a few years yet


----------



## peteai

*Re: PDN - Paladin Resources*

Hi Treefrog,

Yes the The U market seems to have hit a soft spot recently. However it is not very transparent market from what I hear & I'd like to know more about the state of the market.

The plus side for Paladin & established miners is that the uncertainty in U prices probably is a bigger problem for those hoping to finance a mine (in the current credit crisis they have to convince nervous banks & other backers when the U price is uncertain on top of all the other risks)

The suppliers have some advantages in supporting price - 
The suppliier can hold off supply  at minimal cost
The reactors must be kept running and the cost of the Uranium is a very small part of the running cost - so security of supply is top priority.

In theory the supplier will bargain hard for price whereas the buyers with give more priority to security of supply.  The predicted outcome is that the buyer should offer high price for return for security of supply. 


Cheers
PETEAI


----------



## treefrog

*Re: PDN - Paladin Resources*



peteai said:


> Hi Treefrog,
> 
> The reactors must be kept running and the cost of the Uranium is a very small part of the running cost - so security of supply is top priority.
> 
> [/LIST]
> In theory the supplier will bargain hard for price whereas the buyers with give more priority to security of supply.  The predicted outcome is that the buyer should offer high price for return for security of supply.
> 
> Cheers
> PETEAI



dot sure: if I was buyer would want discount for LT order and significant
quantity - much like ERA did years ago (not suggesting market is similar to era deals at all) but yes market forces at the time main criterion


----------



## Gurgler

*Re: PDN - Paladin Resources*

Perhaps we are going to challenge the low of Jan 31 (or even the low of the past 12 months $3.80!).

On a more positive note, from todays FN Arena:
*Paladin Should Outperform Says Credit Suisse
FN Arena News - April 24 2008 

By Chris Shaw

With growing demand expected to keep uranium prices above the marginal cost of production for the longer-term Credit Suisse has forecast an average spot price of US$90 per pound for the period 2010-2012. Longer-term there remains upside as China expands its nuclear power capabilities, which the broker expects will result in annual growth in nuclear power production of 3%. 

To reflect this the broker has initiated coverage on Australian producer Paladin (PDN) with an Outperform rating, as in its view the stock offers a compelling risk/reward profile for investors over the next year given that on both a price to net asset value basis and an implied uranium price basis the stock is among the least expensive in its peer group.*

http://www.fnarena.com/index4.cfm?type=dsp_newsitem&n=7E0FE12E-1871-E587-E13CEBC0144727CB


----------



## kevosero

*Re: PDN - Paladin Resources*

The only problem with these hopeful predictions are the ones that came before them. For at least the last 6 months many big names have pegged PDN at buy while  more recently the average targets has declined.

I currently still hold a fair bag of these shares and have been lowering my average with these dips, however I dont predict any real news in this sector until at least the end of this year. 

Long Hold for me.


----------



## kevosero

*Re: PDN - Paladin Resources*

Anybody have any news with this stock? Been a good few days although I really cant see why, U spot price unchanged and nothing major going on or so it seems...


----------



## Fab

*Re: PDN - Paladin Resources*

PDN up almost 10% in the TSX. Should be good today.
U spot price down 2 pts. Interesting that they both go different direction so


----------



## dj_420

*Re: PDN - Paladin Resources*

Funnily enough a lower spot will start to discrouage all these uranium hopefuls (explorers) with small deposits only feasible at higher uranium prices.

Which means that the strong current producers PDN, ERA, BHP etc can survive a market downturn until the demand side picks up again. 

I think people are also beginning to realise that PDN is the only uranium producer to come online in last 25 years so it is quite an achievement. Once second mine is up and running we will see PDN to become de-risked and revaluated.


----------



## Fab

*Re: PDN - Paladin Resources*

It is nice to see PDN firing up again. Looks like indeed a lower U spot price is doing some good to PDN. There must be some more good news to come. Hopefully we will see this one back to $10 soon


----------



## voigtstr

*Re: PDN - Paladin Resources*

Paladin is finally above my 5.779 averaged buy price. I cant see any new announcement. Is there a reason why they had nearly a 10% swing up today?


----------



## panikhide

*Re: PDN - Paladin Resources*



voigtstr said:


> Paladin is finally above my 5.779 averaged buy price. I cant see any new announcement. Is there a reason why they had nearly a 10% swing up today?




The stock has just returned to this level just to allow you to get out and make a small profit. Sell now while the window of opportunity is open.


----------



## voigtstr

*Re: PDN - Paladin Resources*



panikhide said:


> The stock has just returned to this level just to allow you to get out and make a small profit. Sell now while the window of opportunity is open.




LOL, thanks for that!.  If I were to sell out now, I would still make a loss when  brokerage is included. I intend to stay with paladin long after they are paying dividends. I dont intend to trade it as such, but will attempt to pick up more stock if it drops considerably (for non fundamental reasons).


----------



## panikhide

*Re: PDN - Paladin Resources*



voigtstr said:


> LOL, thanks for that!.  If I were to sell out now, I would still make a loss when  brokerage is included. I intend to stay with paladin long after they are paying dividends. I dont intend to trade it as such, but will attempt to pick up more stock if it drops considerably (for non fundamental reasons).




I think you missed the point of my post. The forums aren't here so the rest of us can keep tabs on your portfolio. I have no interest in what you buy and sell and for what price. The purpose of the forums are to enable us to chat about events that affect particular companies, the prospects of those companies and  analysis of the market. Please keep your posts to that or just read them and take the valuable information they offer.


----------



## voigtstr

*Re: PDN - Paladin Resources*



panikhide said:


> I think you missed the point of my post. The forums aren't here so the rest of us can keep tabs on your portfolio. I have no interest in what you buy and sell and for what price. The purpose of the forums are to enable us to chat about events that affect particular companies, the prospects of those companies and  analysis of the market. Please keep your posts to that or just read them and take the valuable information they offer.




Since you seem to be a font of wisdom and helpfulness, perhaps you can answer  the second part of my original question "Is there a reason why they had nearly a 10% swing up today?"

Cheers


----------



## Eddyl

*Re: PDN - Paladin Resources*



voigtstr said:


> Since you seem to be a font of wisdom and helpfulness, perhaps you can answer  the second part of my original question "Is there a reason why they had nearly a 10% swing up today?"
> 
> Cheers




Most uranium's where up yesterday. DYL was up by over 25%. It seemed like a hot day for uranium in general. I think one of the main reasons for such an upswing was a surge in oil prices, as well as general speculation about uranium as a future energy source.


----------



## panikhide

*Re: PDN - Paladin Resources*



voigtstr said:


> Since you seem to be a font of wisdom and helpfulness, perhaps you can answer  the second part of my original question "Is there a reason why they had nearly a 10% swing up today?"
> 
> Cheers




Nowhere in my post did profess wisdom. All I did was comment on the purpose of these forums.

In answer to your question, yes, there is a reason. I'm not sure why that is, but I can point to a few possibilities. 

Firstly, Paladin is in an uptrend. Yesterday was just a continuation of that uptrend. There was also a 5.5% increase late last week. Maybe yesterday was the day the bulls got excited and slapped their money down.

Second, there is renewed interest from buyers in the uranium sector generally. Other uranium stocks also touched high share prices yesterday, including BMN, ERA, EXT, PNN, TOE and DYL. Maybe a big player bought big in the sector. Maybe someone dropped a hint that uranium is back in favour. Maybe people using a technical analysis saw buying signals - the Paladin chart does not suggest a trend reversal.

Maybe someone had an article published about life without oil and people are starting to think about investing in other energy sources.


----------



## Prospector

*Re: PDN - Paladin Resources*



panikhide said:


> I think you missed the point of my post. The forums aren't here so the rest of us can keep tabs on your portfolio. I have no interest in what you buy and sell and for what price. The purpose of the forums are to enable us to chat about events that affect particular companies, the prospects of those companies and  analysis of the market. Please keep your posts to that or just read them and take the valuable information they offer.




Just wondering why you seem to have taken some kind of offence at voigtstr's post.  I don't recall there being anything in the rules that prevents people from explaining their positions from a buy/sell aspect.  Which is what he/she did.


----------



## alankew

*Re: PDN - Paladin Resources*

Think it is to do with this http://www.topix.com/business/minin...y-on-speculation-cameco-may-make-takeover-bid  and also U stocks being seen as being at a bottom


----------



## Fab

*Re: PDN - Paladin Resources*

PDN up a lot again in good volume today in a mostly down market. Good sign. I hope it keeps going.Are they anymore rumours of a takeover on PDN ??


----------



## alankew

*Re: PDN - Paladin Resources*

Fab you would be no good in a game of hide and seekLook at the post above yours and click on the link


----------



## ands

*Re: PDN - Paladin Resources*

Hey all,

Does anybody know why Paladin went up 8.84% today on a bad day for the market (despite ending up slightly)? Or is it just more of these takeover rumours?

Thanks.


----------



## JTLP

*Re: PDN - Paladin Resources*

Perhaps it had something to do with an article publish in the Fin Review about U stocks clawing back..as well as the U spot price gradually rising???


----------



## Seek$ucce$$

*Re: PDN - Paladin Resources*

I think it has to do with fund managers doing review on PDN...please find the below comment from JP Morgan...quote:

"JPMorgan starts Paladin Energy (PDN.AU) with Overweight rating and A$7.15 target price, expects stock to outperform uranium sector in coming 12 months. "We are attracted to the company's projected earnings growth over the next four years, significant greenfield and brownfield exploration upside, and available optionality in forward uranium pricing mechanisms not available to legacy uranium producers," analyst says."

Also for the fact that PDN partner, EME in Birqli tenement just announce resource upgrade...EME has gone crazy as well....
I think EME is a better value buy for its takeover appeal...


----------



## michael_selway

*Re: PDN - Paladin Resources*



JTLP said:


> Perhaps it had something to do with an article publish in the Fin Review about U stocks clawing back..as well as the U spot price gradually rising???




Hey not bad

*Earnings and Dividends Forecast (cents per share) 
2007 2008 2009 2010 
EPS -8.7 -3.5 21.3 30.8 
DPS 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 *

thx

MS


----------



## Seek$ucce$$

*Re: PDN - Paladin Resources*

A lot of uranium stocks are rallying lately. Many of fund managers start to find value in uranium producers such as ERA and PDN...other hopefuls, smaller explorer companies with proven assets such as EME follow suits for its increasing takeover appeal. 

The logic behind this is uranium is the best available alternative energy to oil to satisfy the world's demand. 

Uranium spot price is moving around $60 at the moment. It has been $140 in the past....
Assuming the demand of uranium increase and the uranium market maturing like other commodities...if we just use the average of $90-$100 spot price, many uranium companies are undervalued by at least 30-40%.


----------



## Gekko

*Re: PDN - Paladin Resources*

Share Prices are usually a forward indicator of the physical asset (in this case uranoum), so the move upward in PDN and the Canadian U308 majors suggests the spot price should start to rebound.
That been said, the stock prices have been rising for a few months, and upon last check the U price fell again last week.
Morale been: stocks are performing great. Spot price performing like a burnt out indicie


----------



## alankew

*Re: PDN - Paladin Resources*

I think an ann is due some time very soon re Paladin Nuclear.Was something mentioned in the last quarterly.Think this is the driver atm apart from all the doom and gloom over high price of oil.Cant wait to get a U powered car


----------



## Go Nuke

*Re: PDN - Paladin Resources*

So who's game to call a change in trend from down to up (or possibly sideways)  with Paladin??

Been some obvious shift in sentiment again towards uranium stocks of late.
I'm sure it would be the ever increasing price of oil and the very real threat of peak oil.

I would expect to hear an update on the Kayelekera project anytime soon. or will they just leave updates for the June report?

Either way as a Summit shareholder who came across with the PDN takeover, im glad to see it heading in the right direction for a change


----------



## eddyeagle

*Re: PDN - Paladin Resources*

I am loving this run that Paladin is having at the moment. It's just about the only stock in my portfolio going up! Go PDN!


----------



## N1Spec

*Re: PDN - Paladin Resources*



Go Nuke said:


> So who's game to call a change in trend from down to up (or possibly sideways)  with Paladin??
> 
> Been some obvious shift in sentiment again towards uranium stocks of late.
> I'm sure it would be the ever increasing price of oil and the very real threat of peak oil.
> 
> I would expect to hear an update on the Kayelekera project anytime soon. or will they just leave updates for the June report?
> 
> Either way as a Summit shareholder who came across with the PDN takeover, im glad to see it heading in the right direction for a change




I'll be game to call it a mild trend reversal, it has to break the 7.50'ish mark to break the long-term down trend. A few more weeks like this and last week and were well on our way there.

Cheers


----------



## arae

*Re: PDN - Paladin Resources*

Hi guys, here's an interesting evalutation on PDN. It was on today's Sydney Morning Herald website and is from Fat Prophets research...

------------------------------------------------

*Paladin Resources Ltd (PDN) *
Greg Canavan is the head of Australasian funds research for Fat Prophets. 
July 9 2008 

*What's new?*

Perhaps Australia's politicians have a deep fear of a Homer Simpson-type overseeing the controls in sector 7G of their local nuclear power plant. Or perhaps there's a genuine concern about how and where nuclear waste is disposed. Whatever the reason, despite its merits as an emission-free energy source, nuclear power generation in Australia looks to be off the cards for some time.

It's a shame that we're not having a genuine debate about nuclear fuel because with the price of other forms of energy rising inexorably, the monetary and environmental arguments are becoming more compelling. Elsewhere in the world, nuclear energy is on the rise.

France produces nearly 80 per cent of its electricity from nuclear power. Globally, there are 34 reactors under construction and with more than 300 planned or proposed by 2025, many other countries aim to increase electricity generation by nuclear means.

Fuelling these nuclear plants will require uranium, lots of it. Paladin Energy is well placed to benefit. Paladin is a relatively simple company to understand. Its primary asset is the Langer Heinrich Uranium Project in Namibia, which began production in December.

Paladin owns 85 per cent of the Kayelekera Uranium Project in Malawi, which remains on schedule to commence production in the March quarter, next year.


In Australia, Paladin has a 50 per cent interest in a joint venture with Summit Resources (of which Paladin owns 81.82 per cent). The joint venture includes the Valhalla and Skal uranium deposits in Mount Isa, Queensland. While mining is not permitted, this could change.

The outlook Apart from the obvious risks of a new development project moving into production and uncertainty over the Australian assets, the outlook for Paladin remains strong.

Demand for electricity will continue to increase around the world. Currently, coal-fired power stations meet most of that demand. But coal is dirty and getting more expensive; clean coal technologies look promising but they are not yet commercially viable. We see the demand for uranium steadily increasing in the years to come. As one of the few existing global producers, Paladin is set to benefit strongly.

*Price*

Paladin's stock price had a remarkable run from late 2004 to early last year, rising from less than $1 to $10. But the uranium hype evaporated last year, bringing the share price back to reasonable levels. The stock bottomed at $4 in May and is now trading at more than $6.

*Worth buying?*

Paladin is not the cheapest stock around, trading about 40 times 2009 earnings forecasts. But the increase in earnings over the next five years is expected to be substantial. For that reason Paladin represents a worthy speculation in the energy sector, warranting a small portfolio allocation. With increasing concerns over carbon emissions, uranium mining and nuclear energy will come into focus. As with oil, uranium will soon be seen as a strategically important asset and this should be reflected in the performance of uranium producers like Paladin.

This story was found at: http://www.moneymanager.com.au/articles/2008/07/07/1215282744144.html


----------



## Garpal Gumnut

*Re: PDN - Paladin Resources*



arae said:


> Hi guys, here's an interesting evalutation on PDN. It was on today's Sydney Morning Herald website and is from Fat Prophets research...
> 
> 
> Paladin is not the cheapest stock around, trading about 40 times 2009 earnings forecasts. But the increase in earnings over the next five years is expected to be substantial. For that reason Paladin represents a worthy speculation in the energy sector, warranting a small portfolio allocation. With increasing concerns over carbon emissions, uranium mining and nuclear energy will come into focus. As with oil, uranium will soon be seen as a strategically important asset and this should be reflected in the performance of uranium producers like Paladin.
> 
> This story was found at: http://www.moneymanager.com.au/articles/2008/07/07/1215282744144.html




Thanks arae,

Uranium may be a comeback punt. 

Enclosed is a daily chart over the last 2 years. Its in an uptrend and if it can achieve higher highs and lows , it looks promising. Worth a punt. The red line is a 21 day moving average. 

I was in RSA recently and heard good things about doing business in Namibia.

gg



gg


----------



## Dutchy3

*Re: PDN - Paladin Resources*

PDN .... I've a few ...

Some reasonable days on volume over the last few months + a few gaps up.

Looks like its getting picked up by the big boys. Drifting over the last week or so is mildly bullish as so far has not reacted down.

The US had another poor night so Monday I'm looking for another indecisive day. If the broader market can have a better week coming this one could shore up at these levels


----------



## alankew

*Re: PDN - Paladin Resources*

This thing just will not stay down no matter what the market or DOW do.Surlely there must be some substance to rumours of a T/O or maybe just POO.According to Grant64 price uf U up again,see U update thread.Imagine the price if Labour changed(or even hinted at a change in policY)


----------



## Go Nuke

*Re: PDN - Paladin Resources*

wow.

Good news for Paladin with EME announcing an updated scoping study with Uranium production up *93%* Vanadium up *107%* and the mine life increased from *8 to 12 years*

And yet PDN gets smashed again on what should have been a good day.

What am i missing


----------



## alankew

*Re: PDN - Paladin Resources*

Go nuke,report out a couple of days ago is the reason.Has been travelling well of late but this report whilst on the whole good started off with something along the lines of U production down 12%.When you look  at the graphs comparing past and current performance they are just 12% off full scale production so perhaps could have highlighted this in a different way eg 20%increase in production from last quarterly and plant operating at almost capacity with no problems-means the same think(I thinkbut is a lot less negative than starting off on the wrong foot.Markets dont need any excuse atm to sell something down so why provide the ammo and the catapult


----------



## N1Spec

*Re: PDN - Paladin Resources*



alankew said:


> Go nuke,report out a couple of days ago is the reason.Has been travelling well of late but this report whilst on the whole good started off with something along the lines of U production down 12%.When you look  at the graphs comparing past and current performance they are just 12% off full scale production so perhaps could have highlighted this in a different way eg 20%increase in production from last quarterly and plant operating at almost capacity with no problems-means the same think(I thinkbut is a lot less negative than starting off on the wrong foot.Markets dont need any excuse atm to sell something down so why provide the ammo and the catapult





Totally agree, the report was actually a positive, but the spin put on it made it seem negative. They could have worded it much much better, they need to fire whoever wrote it....!


----------



## subaru69

*Re: PDN - Paladin Resources*



alankew said:


> Markets dont need any excuse atm to sell something down so why provide the ammo and the catapult




I've been quite pessimistic lately but now I've realised (either rightly or wrongly) that these moves down, in this case largely due to the wording of the announcement, is an opportunity to buy.

Obviously with watch the US tonight, and assuming there aren't riots on the streets of NY; will try and catch an opening dip in PDN.  I bought about a year ago, it has been above and now lower.  I still believe in both the company and outlook for U3O8 so accumulation is the go for me.  There seem to be some other 'die-hard' (sorry about the pun) followers, do you have any opinions?


----------



## subaru69

*Re: PDN - Paladin Resources*

Just been looking at the TSX (Canada) and PDN has lost a bit there also, following Australian lead.  There seems to be a very strong support line ~$4.  My thoughts had been to buy at $5, but it might be that $4 is on the cards if negative sentiment continues.

I'm very new, anyone who's been watching this for a while...


----------



## Go Nuke

*Re: PDN - Paladin Resources*

Hey is there any merit too this chart or trend please guys?

I see it as a trend reversal making higher lows and higher highs..possible forming something of a pennant?


----------



## Bolivia

*Re: PDN - Paladin Resources*

I like the fundemental long term prospects for Uranium and, as a consequence, think PDN has excellent fundemental prospects. Short term production data should be viewed as just that - Short term.

To all the Tech Analysts, where do you see the short term SP going? In my uneducated opinion, $4 seems to be a real support line. Will the stock actually get to this level if many traders see this as an entry point?

I see this stock tracking a bit lower but dont wont to miss a good entry point.

Opinions welcome


----------



## treefrog

*Re: PDN - Paladin Resources*



Bolivia said:


> I like the fundemental long term prospects for Uranium and, as a consequence, think PDN has excellent fundemental prospects. Short term production data should be viewed as just that - Short term.
> 
> To all the Tech Analysts, where do you see the short term SP going? In my uneducated opinion, $4 seems to be a real support line. Will the stock actually get to this level if many traders see this as an entry point?
> 
> I see this stock tracking a bit lower but dont wont to miss a good entry point.
> 
> Opinions welcome




hi bol,
depends whether you are emotional about the stock or an objective trader
yes $4 is a sig. support level and good entry point with a tight stop under as it has recently visited there twice before and could be the bulls are getting tired - if $4 holds (third bounce) should be a good run north from there.
The emotive ones will say it won't get to $4 and you need to buy before that


----------



## alankew

*Re: PDN - Paladin Resources*

You would have to assume that someone is now having a second look at this after not making a move when it was around $4 last time,14M traded today already(sorry make that nearly15M) or $67M worth,some pretty deep pockets,maybe GE?Would a speeding ticket/query be issued for that sort of volume


----------



## alankew

*Re: PDN - Paladin Resources*

Just a bit of news for any U bulls,Cameco having problems with Cigar Lake.Currently repair work is halted so could explain todays rise in PDN and may lead to a rise in the price of U
http://www.reuters.com/article/marketsNews/idUSN1225728520080813


----------



## Dutchy3

*Re: PDN - Paladin Resources*

PDN cost me a few bob ... I think it's doing a WPL ....

Have a look at WPL Sep 06 to March 07 - once this one decides what direction is wants to take then the $$ will flow. Might be a while yet


----------



## ChomChom

*Re: PDN - Paladin Resources*

Hey, not sure why PDN is being smashed like that...  Wish I had more cash available to buy more at this price....

There's hope that liberal will win in WA (if they do, it's a bonus, if not, should it have a big effect on PDN?)

Fundamentals still very good on medium long term...
Ongoing issues with Cameco leading to a shortage of available Uranium... takeover rumours (Extract merger, Rio interested...)...

And very good news with the nuclear trade ban on India lifted...
http://in.reuters.com/article/businessNews/idINIndia-35378620080908

All this is pointing to an increase of the spot market price and long term contracts

Your thougths?


----------



## Schmuckie

*Re: PDN - Paladin Resources*



ChomChom said:


> Hey, not sure why PDN is being smashed like that...  Wish I had more cash available to buy more at this price....
> 
> There's hope that liberal will win in WA (if they do, it's a bonus, if not, should it have a big effect on PDN?)
> 
> Fundamentals still very good on medium long term...
> Ongoing issues with Cameco leading to a shortage of available Uranium... takeover rumours (Extract merger, Rio interested...)...
> 
> And very good news with the nuclear trade ban on India lifted...
> http://in.reuters.com/article/businessNews/idINIndia-35378620080908
> 
> All this is pointing to an increase of the spot market price and long term contracts
> 
> Your thougths?




The fundamentals for the industry are indeed good going forward and better than many other commodities, with increasing demand, the spot price at USD $64.50 (up from a bottom of about $56), and decreasing supply.  It appears to be indiscriminate selling off in the wake of fund redemptions, market fear, margin calls and herd behaviour.  All U stocks in Canada are way day in the last six trading sessions, with Denison Mines down over 30 per cent and Cameco down around 20 per cent.  

As an aside, this is probably a good clue as to why professional fund managers can rarely beat the index.


----------



## skunkmonkey

*Re: PDN - Paladin Resources*

I picked up a few more at $4.80 today and then watched it fall further to $4.60.  Ah well ...  You have to laugh.  I'm expecting things will sort themselves out in a year or so.


----------



## ChomChom

*Re: PDN - Paladin Resources*

Nationals, Libs to form government in WAS
http://www.theaustralian.news.com.au/story/0,25197,24343800-601,00.html

Great news for the Australian Uranium industry!
And good news for PDN on their Manyingee project and Oobagooma project located in WA


----------



## ChomChom

*Re: PDN - Paladin Resources*

Oops, not such a great news after all, the market still doesn't care and PDN is smashed again


----------



## Hewus

*Re: PDN - Paladin Resources*

Why is PDN being hit so hard compared to the rest of the market? The ASX 200 is down 2.5%, but PDN is down 10%! Even ASX 200 Energy is only down 4%..


----------



## oldblue

*Re: PDN - Paladin Resources*



Hewus said:


> Why is PDN being hit so hard compared to the rest of the market? The ASX 200 is down 2.5%, but PDN is down 10%! Even ASX 200 Energy is only down 4%..




Anything associated with uranium is seen as super speculative in today's market, regardless of the merits of the individual stock.
Super speculative doesn't play well when the entire western world's financial system is under the biggest cloud anyone can seem to remember!


----------



## skunkmonkey

*Re: PDN - Paladin Resources*

That cloud just got bigger.  DOW down 449 this morning.  I can feel my losses getting bigger already and the ASX has not even opened yet...


----------



## Go Nuke

*Re: PDN - Paladin Resources*

Urggh...Think I'm going to be sick:crap:

Bought into PDN at $4.29 thinking I could buy in the low and sell in the next high.....um...its not going to plan though

If fact, I dont think I could have picked a worse stock the other day..actually, ye sI could...BNB. but still. Now all my U stocks r going down the toilet...BMN,ERN,PDN 

I just hope that when the bleeding has finished, PDN can push up through $4.
Or pray for a takeover at say $5+


----------



## awg

*Re: PDN - Paladin Resources*

yes, i feel ill as well

ditched PDN this morning, as part of my purge of worst performers

and its still going down 

i bought it as a long term U play, but could no longer stand the short term pain

the only consolation, is at least it hasnt gone up since i sold out!

might buy back, if & when some market stability returns


----------



## ChomChom

*Re: PDN - Paladin Resources*

I don't understand the market... 
I'm still in and still happy to be in (wish the share price was higher, but that's life...)
PDN is for me the best bet in Uranium and one with the less risk, it's producing, ramping up production, lots of potential, good news... in it for the long term... will look at buying more at $3.5


----------



## Garpal Gumnut

*Re: PDN - Paladin Resources*



awg said:


> yes, i feel ill as well
> 
> ditched PDN this morning, as part of my purge of worst performers
> 
> and its still going down
> 
> i bought it as a long term U play, but could no longer stand the short term pain
> 
> the only consolation, is at least it hasnt gone up since i sold out!
> 
> might buy back, if & when some market stability returns






ChomChom said:


> I don't understand the market...
> I'm still in and still happy to be in (wish the share price was higher, but that's life...)
> PDN is for me the best bet in Uranium and one with the less risk, it's producing, ramping up production, lots of potential, good news... in it for the long term... will look at buying more at $3.5




Agree with you CC.

I bought it as a U punt. I'll hang in. Its a $100 on the red bet. At least they are producing.

awg I understand your pain.

gg


----------



## Schmuckie

*Re: PDN - Paladin Resources*

Don't forget Merrill Lynch has (or more likely, "had") 35 million shares of PDN.  GE Asset Management also had a very large number of shares.  It looks like shares are being dumped because of liquidation of holdings.


----------



## kevosero

*Re: PDN - Paladin Resources*

Acquired stocks in PDN from the SMM buyout. From what I've noticed since then is PDN will get hammered any time the Aussie stocks take a dip due to panic selling. I'm a long term hold with this one and usaully take on a few more when the price is this low. I think it still has a lot of value and will bounce back when things calm a little.

My only concern is the US influence, still alot of $hit in the pipe yet to come out yeah?


----------



## michael_selway

*Re: PDN - Paladin Resources*



Go Nuke said:


> Urggh...Think I'm going to be sick:crap:
> 
> Bought into PDN at $4.29 thinking I could buy in the low and sell in the next high.....um...its not going to plan though
> 
> If fact, I dont think I could have picked a worse stock the other day..actually, ye sI could...BNB. but still. Now all my U stocks r going down the toilet...BMN,ERN,PDN
> 
> I just hope that when the bleeding has finished, PDN can push up through $4.
> Or pray for a takeover at say $5+




Hm yeah its been tough

*Earnings and Dividends Forecast (cents per share) 
2008 2009 2010 2011 
EPS -6.2 9.9 27.2 41.1 
DPS 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 *



> Date: 15/9/2008
> Author: Cath Hart
> Source: The Australian --- Page: 27
> Australian and overseas resources groups with uranium tenements in WesternAustralia (WA) received a significant boost on 14 September 2008. Thestate's National Party has decided to support the Liberal Party in forminggovernment after the 6 September election, and this is highly likely to resultin uranium mining now being allowed in WA. The previous government of theAustralian Labor Party had ruled out such a move, with premier Alan Carpenteralso threatening to enshrine a ban in law. Among the companies now set to investin their uranium assets in WA and raise the gross state product by $A3.2bn inthe period to 2030 are Mega Uranium, BHP Billiton, Cameco-Mitsubishi, Energy& Minerals Australia and Paladin




thx

MS


----------



## Moneybags

*Re: PDN - Paladin Resources*



Go Nuke said:


> Urggh...Think I'm going to be sick:crap:
> 
> Bought into PDN at $4.29 thinking I could buy in the low and sell in the next high.....um...its not going to plan though
> 
> If fact, I dont think I could have picked a worse stock the other day..actually, ye sI could...BNB. but still. Now all my U stocks r going down the toilet...BMN,ERN,PDN
> 
> I just hope that when the bleeding has finished, PDN can push up through $4.
> Or pray for a takeover at say $5+




Hang in there GN, things are happening in the U sector........GE recently bought into PDN are are aligned with SLX ( Silex ) also. PDN have just announced that they have upped there stake in DYL to 19 odd %. RIO have bought into EXT ( Extract ) recently so all is not so bad, and besides a nice bounce yesterday bringing you close to your buy in price. Good luck.

MB


----------



## Go Nuke

*Re: PDN - Paladin Resources*



Moneybags said:


> Hang in there GN, things are happening in the U sector........GE recently bought into PDN are are aligned with SLX ( Silex ) also. PDN have just announced that they have upped there stake in DYL to 19 odd %. RIO have bought into EXT ( Extract ) recently so all is not so bad, and besides a nice bounce yesterday bringing you close to your buy in price. Good luck.
> 
> MB




Ah thanks for the votes of confidence fellas

I was doing a T3 trade with PDN and like most times...that just like gambling.
98% of the time I get burnt, and i did so with PDN selling out at $4.12 for a loss.

Like Kevo, i came across with the SMM takeover too. So am significantly down since that happened.
No more T3 rubbish for me. It just doesn't work and let that be a lesson to anyone else that tries!
It may work once or twice but its playing with fire and will send you/me broke

Trying to save for a house now (what a laugh that is) so no more buying shares for me.
My portfolio is down well over 50% now (mainly thx to BMN) and has totally knocked the excitement and confidence outa me.

I will just have to sit back and read about all the money that other people are making, taking in what info i can so that one day I may be successful too.

Still believe PDN is a great company.


----------



## treefrog

*Re: PDN - Paladin Resources*



treefrog said:


> hi bol,
> depends whether you are emotional about the stock or an objective trader
> yes $4 is a sig. support level and good entry point with a tight stop under as it has recently visited there twice before and could be the bulls are getting tired - if $4 holds (third bounce) should be a good run north from there.
> The emotive ones will say it won't get to $4 and you need to buy before that




well support perforations are getting bigger in this market and $4 didn't hold - next support level at $1.70


----------



## peteai

*Re: PDN - Paladin Resources*

I have dived back into Palidin again - the temptation is too high at these prices - it has proven they can build a mine in a few years they will be approaching 10Mpds - Yeh the current spot is low - but this will slow down other mines  Just my opinion that pluses out weight the negatives


----------



## voigtstr

*Re: PDN - Paladin Resources*

What kind of production will Paladin need to hit before they consider paying dividends? (Is there a general rule for these sorts of things) (ASIC disclaimer: I hold two small parcels of these shares)


----------



## Sean K

*Re: PDN - Paladin Resources*



voigtstr said:


> What kind of production will Paladin need to hit before they consider paying dividends? (Is there a general rule for these sorts of things) (ASIC disclaimer: I hold two small parcels of these shares)



I doubt they'll pay dividends for some time.

Aren't they about to build another mine and looking at other growth options?

The immediate outlook doesn't look to hot and not a good story for any wanna be developers with big capex requirements (eg, BMN).


*Paladin flags cancellations*
Jesse Riseborough 
October 16, 2008 

PALADIN Energy, the Perth-based company producing uranium in Namibia, said the global credit crisis would delay or scupper planned industry projects, cutting supplies of the nuclear fuel.

"The impact of the credit tightness on the supply side of the uranium business will probably cause the deferral or cancellation of some planned uranium projects," Paladin said yesterday in a statement on production and sales.

The worst US financial crisis since the Great Depression has made banks more reluctant to lend money, raising global borrowing costs. JPMorgan Chase last week cut its uranium price forecast through to 2010, citing the potential for the freeze to slow project development on nuclear power.

The credit crunch would also "reduce the money available for exploration companies, which will only exacerbate the supply-demand imbalance in the future", Paladin said.

Paladin closed 39 ¢, or 15%, lower at $2.21. It has dropped 67% this year.

Still, "reactor construction and forward planning for new plants continues strongly in China and other major Asian countries as well as in Russia", Paladin said. "Demand for uranium in the medium to long term remains extremely strong."

The company reported sales of $US51 million ($A73 million) in the three months to September 30, from 878,000 pounds of uranium oxide at $US58 a pound. It had $US279.5 million in cash, and construction of the Kayelekera project in Malawi was on schedule to start next quarter, the company said.


----------



## peteai

*Re: PDN - Paladin Resources*

Wow... A year ago we had a 1 in front of the SP and we now have again,
only 1 year ago it was for SP > $10


----------



## DionM

*Re: PDN - Paladin Resources*

Well I topped up on PDN today.

The other parcel I was still holding, would you believe, was from $9.00 !

So I averaged down pretty hard with a purchase today at $1.88.

I have made money trading PDN before, from $4 to $5 for example.  Though I've stuck this one in my long term bucket (hence still having the $9 parcel!) as I think this is quite a good buying opportunity opportunity.  PDNs report released recently had nothing but good news in it, and whilst there may be a lull in U prices at present, I think it is very hard to ignore that Nuclear power will play a big role in the next 20-40 years as carbon trading kills off the economic viability of coal-fired power stations (let alone the fact we may be running out of coal) - from both building new stations and extending the life of old ones.  We still need baseload power, and there are no 'green' alternatives to big baseload coal-fired power stations mooted yet.

There may be some more downside to the PDN SP, but today's hammering made it too tempting for me.

I also think (and this is just an opinion!) that big infrastructure projects like building power stations may be something governments look to to stimulte their economies - just an opinon, however - I could be barking up the wrong tree.


----------



## Uncle Festivus

*Re: PDN - Paladin Resources*

PDN is looking very oversold?



> Langer Heinrich Production reaches nameplate for quarter
> 75% increase in Ore Reserves
> 46% increase in Measured and Indicated Resources
> 64% increase in Inferred Resources
> Sales of US$51M for the quarter
> Kayelekera construction maintains schedule and budget
> Commissioning and operations teams being recruited
> Key long term uranium contract signed with major Asian utility
> Strong cash position US$279.5M at quarter end



Cash =$1.15 per share & sales of $US51m per qtr!!


----------



## DionM

*Re: PDN - Paladin Resources*

GE has increased it's holdings -see ann. out today.  

For a bit of background:

It is an emerging trend for Nuclear reactor manufacturers to get involved in the Nuclear fuel business - Areva pioneered it, and GE has said publicly it wants to have the same model (and Westinghouse probably does too).

Here's a nice post on it:
http://djysrv.blogspot.com/2008/01/ge-to-expand-nuclear-fuel-services.html

From there you'll also find a link to a Bloomberg report that says GE is keen to get into partnerships with U miners:
http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=newsarchive&sid=aaiGCCHHCyGg


----------



## shag

*Re: PDN - Paladin Resources*

well at least it bounced off its 1.70 support level
i bought a handful around that price.
it must be a red hot prospect in a few yrs, takeover target if rio or bhp could get some dosh.
i like them at this price, and remember the summit gold fiasco, went from dirt, to bucks, back to dirt, then much time later-recently, they struck gold again in the form of uranium...lets hope this does similar.....


----------



## DionM

*Re: PDN - Paladin Resources*



shag said:


> well at least it bounced off its 1.70 support level
> i bought a handful around that price.
> it must be a red hot prospect in a few yrs, takeover target if rio or bhp could get some dosh.
> i like them at this price, and remember the summit gold fiasco, went from dirt, to bucks, back to dirt, then much time later-recently, they struck gold again in the form of uranium...lets hope this does similar.....




Just below that 1.70 support now.

Interesting.

Maybe I should have waited before I got in - I though high 1's would be it, but it's headed to well below that today.

Didn't we have a DOW up day overnight!


----------



## peteai

*Re: PDN - Paladin Resources*



DionM said:


> Just below that 1.70 support now.
> 
> Interesting.
> 
> Maybe I should have waited before I got in - I though high 1's would be it, but it's headed to well below that today.
> 
> Didn't we have a DOW up day overnight!




It crashed though that 1.70 well I thought I better buy some more because it is just too tempting at these prices ... I might regret it ... but it has to rise from these prices ?? doesn't it ?????


----------



## Sean K

*Re: PDN - Paladin Resources*



peteai said:


> but it has to rise from these prices ?? doesn't it ?????



LOL Pete.

That's been said a few times on many stocks the past few months.

Just about everything is going with the tide.

When it finally goes out, will you have pants on?


----------



## DionM

*Re: PDN - Paladin Resources*



peteai said:


> It crashed though that 1.70 well I thought I better buy some more because it is just too tempting at these prices ... I might regret it ... but it has to rise from these prices ?? doesn't it ?????




I must admit I've gotten a bit blaise about falling prices ... my portfolio is such a see of red, another few thousand doesn't seem to register anymore ...

Anyway, PDN is in a good place in a few areas:

1. Producing, making an income (still making a net loss though, albeit smallish)
2. Exploring still.  (and I suppose to help with money, it could stop this)
3. Money in the bank / finance lined up (some due soon-ish, but not terribly urgent)
4. In a sector that will not contract anytime soon IMHO - you just can't stop building power stations because you want to - people use more and more energy.  There are few alternatives to nuclear as a 'carbon friendly' base-load (ie 1000s of MW) generator.  Demand for fuel will only increase - these big nuclear stations are needed - wind/solar/etc are only peak-load stations, so they cannot replace the function of big coal.

Additionally, something that is unique in the nuclear power industry is that the big players in constructing generators (Areva, GE) want to provide a "one stop shop" - and that means being involved in fuel (i.e. U mining).  This is unique to nuclear - imagine if BHP mined the ore, made the steel and built bridges!  Areva is the leader in this, and GE wants to be like them (I recently attended a conference on the topic).  Hence GE's stake - they want a foot in the door of a reliable U miner.


----------



## peteai

*Re: PDN - Paladin Resources*



kennas said:


> LOL Pete.
> 
> That's been said a few times on many stocks the past few months.
> 
> Just about everything is going with the tide.
> 
> When it finally goes out, will you have pants on?




Definitely a lot of red in my portfolio - but I can hold for as long as it takes -assuming the whole economy does not implode & I'm busking for my living.
I think PDN is well positioned even if the credit crisis drags on 
DionM, Also agree with you on why PDN looks good.
But like any stock, it can always drop........maybe a lot more.....only tempting me to buy more taking 1 more step deeper, but hopefully not deep enough to be taken out with the "tide"!!


----------



## shag

*Re: PDN - Paladin Resources*

i believe apart from the t/o aspect, that china will include nuc power stations plus uncle sam will do the same, to combat global warming plus speed the economy up.
i like the one stop shop aspect also. from engineers to nuclear fuel, a solid plan.
look at era today, shoot up, mac bank said they put it on their buy with convistion list, plus huntleys like it. paladins just as good or worthy, so must occur sometime.


----------



## drlog

*Re: PDN - Paladin Resources*

I just bought into PDN at $1.80. A bit undervalued since we are looking at forecast positive earnings next year, good financial standing and growth in the years to come.

My portfolio is also a sea of red! Who's isn't? I started buying about 8 months ago and I'm now dumping every second pay cheque into the market.

I consider myself to be an environmentalist but I'm also a scientist. Uranium is a good and viable alternative to coal. If the greens hadn't been so anti-uranium, I would have voted for them last election. The truth is, these people wouldn't even know the difference between nuclear fission and fusion! 

Ok, that's my rant for today!


----------



## james99

*Re: PDN - Paladin Resources*

Nov 26 (Reuters) - BMO Capital Markets initiated coverage of two uranium miners Paladin Energy Ltd (PDN.TO: Quote, Profile, Research, Stock Buzz) and Uranium One Inc (UUU.TO: Quote, Profile, Research, Stock Buzz) with an "outperform" rating , saying the companies would make good investments, given the steady rise in uranium prices, even as prices of other commodities collapse.


"BMO Research believes that investors in stocks well placed to capitalise on uranium prices will see substantial returns in the near to medium-term," BMO Capital analyst Edward Sterck said in a note to clients.


----------



## Sean K

*Re: PDN - Paladin Resources*

Seems to have stabilized with the rest of the market and forming up some sort of support around $2.00. 

Was that a bottom?

Only time will tell, but there's been some good short term opportunities the past week.


----------



## tom_rhodes

*PDN - PALADIN ENERGY LTD*

hey, anyone else here holding this stock?

I bought back in November 08 and not being going to well with it since then. I always keep an eye on the company news but don't always understand how it is effecting the stock price. I would appreciate a thread to help discuss news release from PDN.

anyone interested?


----------



## tecinv

*Re: PDN - Paladin Resources*

qld gov will open up uranium mining to help economy then PDN will be in the money some body knows something as it has already had a breakout this year and looks like it wiil break again after yesterdays gains


----------



## Sean K

*Re: PDN - Paladin Resources*



tecinv said:


> qld gov will open up uranium mining to help economy then PDN will be in the money some body knows something as it has already had a breakout this year and looks like it wiil break again after yesterdays gains



I'm not sure about QLD opening up to  mining any time soon.

Have you got a reference/quote from the Premier or Mines Minister on that?

Certainly will be good for them if the policy changes.

Was a prospective break through $3.00, but has failed and looks to be opening up at $2.81. If it can hold above $3.00 by EOD I will be impressed.


----------



## Sean K

*Re: PDN - Paladin Resources*



kennas said:


> I'm not sure about QLD opening up to  mining any time soon.
> 
> Have you got a reference/quote from the Premier or Mines Minister on that?



This is the most recent quote I could find:

"The Government's policy is clear on this issue and I have no intention of revisiting it," the statement said.

*From Anna Bligh on in Dec 08*


----------



## champ2003

*Re: PDN - Paladin Resources*



kennas said:


> This is the most recent quote I could find:
> 
> "The Government's policy is clear on this issue and I have no intention of revisiting it," the statement said.
> 
> *From Anna Bligh on in Dec 08*




We are well overdue for a strong run with the Oil price. If this happens it will fare very well for PDN and all U stocks.


----------



## rub92me

*Re: PDN - Paladin Resources*



champ2003 said:


> We are well overdue for a strong run with the Oil price. If this happens it will fare very well for PDN and all U stocks.



Really? Oil tried to get back up past 50 dollars not so long ago and failed. Imho it is just ranging a bit now and could go either way short term.


----------



## Sean K

*Re: PDN - Paladin Resources*

PDN looks to have sealed the FSN deal, I wonder who they'll go for next? Very inquisative this mob, with fingers in lots of pies. I'm hoping they go for BMN with their EPL around LH and tonnage near Rossing, although EXT probably looks tastier now with their far superior grades. Surprised a major didn't make an attempt at PDN when it was smashed so low and the outlook for uranium still looking ok. 

Still consolidating OK and looks like that support zone has held so far. If the general horizontal support holds you'd expect upward movement in the coming week or two perhaps. Breaking down through the blue lines changes the upward pattern of movement..


----------



## kkyyoo

*Re: PDN - Paladin Resources*

This share has broken the 2 months resistance level of $3.2 today 

Expecting upward movement till around $3.8 - $3.9 before any more resistance...

any thoughts ?


----------



## Sean K

*Re: PDN - Paladin Resources*



kkyyoo said:


> This share has broken the 2 months resistance level of $3.2 today
> 
> Expecting upward movement till around $3.8 - $3.9 before any more resistance...
> 
> any thoughts ?



Only broke for a day, but is looking even more positive to me.

That support line id above has seemed to have held and the general trend up continues. If the new set resistance is broken might get a little run out of it. There's resistance from $3.75 ish on the short term, but longer term, $4.00 is next step if uptrend continues.

(holding, looking to add more)


----------



## kr1zh

*Re: PDN - Paladin Resources*

PDN hit $3.50 today. I am not sure if the ride is going back up to $6 mark like previous months. Any thought about this stock?



kennas said:


> Only broke for a day, but is looking even more positive to me.
> 
> That support line id above has seemed to have held and the general trend up continues. If the new set resistance is broken might get a little run out of it. There's resistance from $3.75 ish on the short term, but longer term, $4.00 is next step if uptrend continues.
> 
> (holding, looking to add more)


----------



## big sal

*Re: PDN - Paladin Resources*



kr1zh said:


> PDN hit $3.50 today. I am not sure if the ride is going back up to $6 mark like previous months. Any thought about this stock?




Bang! PDN up over 10% today. It could certainly now push towards $4 in quick time with buy side of 1.5M units vs sell side of 660K units. Who knows after that?

It was on only 4 March that the price dropped down to $2.75, but it has recovered real quick. Hasn’t seen $3.50 since October 2008.


----------



## eddyeagle

*Re: PDN - Paladin Resources*

The chart certainly looks encouraging since the double bottom at $1.80. 
Share price has almost doubled since then.


----------



## Santoro

*Re: PDN - Paladin Resources*



kr1zh said:


> PDN hit $3.50 today. I am not sure if the ride is going back up to $6 mark like previous months. Any thought about this stock?




The following article was on Bloomberg and discussed the possibility of Paladin being acquired at its current valuation:
Paladin May Be ‘Attractive’ Target for Cameco, Areva


----------



## Sean K

*Re: PDN - Paladin Resources*

Still trending up nicely and after breaking up, and testing as support, continues along. Nice.

More news elsewhere about possibilities of Ereva or Comenco picking this up for it's current and future potential. 

If Libs get up in QLD could make this a boomer.


----------



## nomore4s

*Re: PDN - Paladin Resources*

I'm kicking myself on this one, had an order to re-enter this trade around the 5.03.09 @ $2.85-$2.90 but I cancelled the order - what a clown, lol

This sort of missed opp actually hurts me more than closing out a losing trade but unfortunately it happens to me quite a bit, one of the harder things to deal with while trading imo.


----------



## Logique

*Re: PDN - Paladin Resources*

It certainly bears watching k and others, the QLD election is lineball. 

I see the price action as a 6 month upward channel. Just one chart caution, keep an eye on those matching volumes, seems to be a broad 6 month decline. But unless some unknown factor interposes, 4.00 now looks almost a given.


----------



## Prospector

*Re: PDN - Paladin Resources*

Sorry guys but the price will now fall because I just topped up! 

I just wish I had kept all the PDN shares I bought at 11c!  Would now be on a beach!


----------



## Sean K

*Re: PDN - Paladin Resources*



Prospector said:


> Sorry guys but the price will now fall because I just topped up!
> 
> I just wish I had kept all the PDN shares I bought at 11c!  Would now be on a beach!



So happy to be in bed with you on this one P. First time I think. 

Had a great run since the 'bottom', but who knows what's next. 

Short term looks great but running into some headwinds around $4.00. Will interesting to see how the ship handles about then.


----------



## kr1zh

*Re: PDN - Paladin Resources*

Last week the  Areva was said to be in talks with Middle Eastern sovereign wealth funds about investing in Areva, but also about doing deals for huge new nuclear power plants throughout the Middle East. 

It is great for Areva to build a huge number of new power stations, but they will all need one thing – uranium 

Finger crossed, hopefully Lawrence Springborg’s Liberal National Party is elected.



kennas said:


> If Libs get up in QLD could make this a boomer.


----------



## Sean K

*Re: PDN - Paladin Resources*

Looks like the socialists are back in, holding back progress, halting development of billions of dollars worth of projects to the state, and bowing to the brown coal lobby with more back scratchers at the ready.



Wonder how punters will feel about PDN assets in the banana state Monday?


----------



## shag

*Re: PDN - Paladin Resources*



kennas said:


> Looks like the socialists are back in, holding back progress, halting development of billions of dollars worth of projects to the state, and bowing to the brown coal lobby with more back scratchers at the ready.
> 
> 
> 
> Wonder how punters will feel about PDN assets in the banana state Monday?



pissed me off too
surely people must realise if u at least have moderate developemnt, then there is cash for oldies, the sick, and proper education.
nz had a decade of this rubbish u guys r heading into, and it just became so rediculous there. 
even if its economy was going good, who whould not move here apart from the bludgers and those poor bastards who r stuck there like the old and sick who r stuck there and suffer the most.
what arguemnt do u use against uranium development nowadays since its become the new greenish energy.
aus will likely need to use it also, to power desalination plants unless technology changes.


----------



## shag

*Re: PDN - Paladin Resources*



kennas said:


> Looks like the socialists are back in, holding back progress, halting development of billions of dollars worth of projects to the state, and bowing to the brown coal lobby with more back scratchers at the ready.
> 
> 
> 
> Wonder how punters will feel about PDN assets in the banana state Monday?



pissed me off too
surely people must realise if u at least have moderate developemnt, then there is cash for oldies, the sick, and proper education.
nz had a decade of this rubbish u guys r heading into, and it just became so rediculous there. 
even if its economy was going good, who whould not move here apart from the bludgers and those poor bastards who r stuck there like the old and sick and suffer the most.
what arguemnt do u use against uranium development nowadays since its become the new greenish energy.
aus will likely need to use it also, to power desalination plants unless technology changes.


----------



## Sean K

*Re: PDN - Paladin Resources*

Very surprised with the result for PDN today. No one seems to care that they have invested gazillions into a state that will not allow them to mine. Odd really. 

Oh well, happy the SP didn't tank on the news.

SP hitting the top of this wedgy looking thing. Expect a drop, or if it breaks through should result in a bit of run you'd imagine.


----------



## jonojpsg

*Re: PDN - Paladin Resources*

Nice analysis kennas - wedgy looking thing hehe.  If you look back at October though you can see that price action over the last few months has been filling the gaps from the fall off a cliff then (more very technical analysis ).  Most recently has been filling the top gap so possibly looking now to break up back to pre-October territory?   Just my amateur


----------



## dj_420

*Re: PDN - Paladin Resources*



kennas said:


> Very surprised with the result for PDN today. No one seems to care that they have invested gazillions into a state that will not allow them to mine. Odd really.
> 
> Oh well, happy the SP didn't tank on the news.
> 
> SP hitting the top of this wedgy looking thing. Expect a drop, or if it breaks through should result in a bit of run you'd imagine.




With second mine about to start production I think people are looking past that point. The development in QLD will eventually happen, it is just years away, plenty more projects in Australia like JV with EME and Cameco to keep them occuppied.

Once they get into full swing the forward PE for next year is around 15, so looking much better than when is was well over 100x forward PE!


----------



## kenny

*Re: PDN - Paladin Resources*

Thanks kennas & jono. That's the sort of TA that I can understand.

What would drive the sp up towards the pre October levels do you think though?

Cheers,

Kenny


----------



## Sean K

*Re: PDN - Paladin Resources*



kenny said:


> Thanks kennas & jono. That's the sort of TA that I can understand.
> 
> What would drive the sp up towards the pre October levels do you think though?
> 
> Cheers,
> 
> Kenny



General market sentiment improvement (happening), price of uranium steady rise back towards $80+, or a nice big fat juicy takeover offer from Areva and a prolonged bidding war between them and Comenco and BHP maybe. Just 3 ideas.


----------



## kenny

*Re: PDN - Paladin Resources*

I was thinking how much the general improvement of the markets recently may have played a role but the gains seem to be more than just that. people getting set for a possible M&A action sounds quite plausible. What do you think about the effect of the slow turnaround in the Green crowd's acceptance that nuclear power is really green and helping the push for uranium demand in their respective nations?

Cheers,

Kenny


----------



## Sean K

*Re: PDN - Paladin Resources*



kenny said:


> What do you think about the effect of the slow turnaround in the Green crowd's acceptance that nuclear power is really green and helping the push for uranium demand in their respective nations?
> 
> Cheers,
> 
> Kenny



Australia seems to be the only country that is afraid of a nuclear reactor in their back yard. Of more interest is the number of mines coming on line overseas and planned construction of new plants and therefore demand. ERA's boss recently made a statement that he saw the future being pretty good in regard to the supply demand equation. That is, good for a strong uranium price. 


*ERA confident in long-term uranium demand* 
Alex Wilson | March 20, 2009 

Article from:  Dow Jones Newswires 

ENERGY Resources of Australia said today long-term demand for uranium remains strong and higher prices are expected.

The miner, a subsidiary of Rio Tinto , said much of the new uranium supply planned in recent years hadn’t materialised and at the same time demand forecasts continue to be revised upwards as countries increasingly turn to nuclear power to meet their energy needs. 

“Overall, the supply and demand balance in uranium markets point to sustained higher prices in the medium term,” ERA said in its annual report. 

ERA said the most significant growth in demand for uranium in the next decade will come from China, but the demand outlook was also strong for many other major economies across Europe, Asia and North America.


----------



## kenny

*Re: PDN - Paladin Resources*

Good article, Kennas.

The supply side certainly seems to change with disturbing regularity. Flooded mines and disrupted schedules make it hard to guarantee supply to clients or reassure analysts of estimated production numbers. Over the past 18 months, I get the feeling supply has decreased rather than expanded. I guess you are pointing to this as a significant factor towards the rise of uranium prices.

regards,

Kenny


----------



## shag

*Re: PDN - Paladin Resources*

i personally think even labour will eventually lose the anti uranium strategy. like its present options r loads of horrible wind farms, tidal energy, solar, a little hot rock/geothermal, and really the most likely is big coal burners. and when it comes to coal burners, or nuc's(both of which u can conveniently throw close to the consumers), nuclear looks better and better as an interim measure.
this applies to most of the world.
i'm no expert but with nuc's, the only real issue is the waste, and they r working on that, with lasers etc.
they could maybe use new zealand as one big nuclear waste deposit too, presently its little use for anything else and the people r left there by choice are already pretty mutated, big, fat 'n braindead. sorry thats derogatory to people with headinjuries.


----------



## bulli

*Re: PDN - Paladin Resources*



shag said:


> they could maybe use new zealand as one big nuclear waste deposit too....




I started laughing at this point and it only got funnier, nice one shag. Very funny..and practical too


----------



## shag

*Re: PDN - Paladin Resources*

yes im a bit negative nz nowadays(and i *have *to go back this week). my parents r stuck there, old, have family land. i always loved aus as a kid, and parts of nz, but its got worse. too many good people have left, and kept leaving for a generation now.
i was a little serious too, i was thinking that the world is big, all they need is some small island, dump the worlds irradiated waste there-ie a repository but a world one, and seal it in glass(isolate and contain it) and wait till a solution is found. all u need is to keep a few k away from it, keep your crocs and wildlife away so u dont mutate them into something u don't want.
if, and i say if we get global warming, surely this is better than having whats been suggested.
then aus can dig like mad, and when the stuffs run out, u'd expect they would have cracked fusion or become more energy efficient.
the extreme greenies can't easily have it both ways.


----------



## Sean K

*Re: PDN - Paladin Resources*

PDN tapping on the upper channel door. Either means a potential short, or if it breaks through a significant shift up. Around the $3.65 level, so close to break up.

There's a few charts looking like this now which means a couple of things to me.

If they break through, then we've probably seen a bottom. If not, it's a bear bounce and we're probably going to test the lower ranges.


----------



## Sean K

*Re: PDN - Paladin Resources*

PDN been consolidating under this resistance zone and needs something to break through. $1.1 tril maybe? Maybe not.

Is that a cup and handle I see? 

Probably not. Breaking through $4.00 will be a miracle, and very very good sign. Unless you short it.


----------



## Moneybags

*Re: PDN - Paladin Resources*



kennas said:


> PDN been consolidating under this resistance zone and needs something to break through. $1.1 tril maybe? Maybe not.
> 
> Is that a cup and handle I see?
> 
> Probably not. Breaking through $4.00 will be a miracle, and very very good sign. Unless you short it.




Why do you say it will be a miracle Kennas.......because of the resistance there and the down trendline coinciding? I don't hold presently........have traded it from 2.25 - 2.75 and 2.50- 3.00 but such a frustrating share to hold. A great company IMO with good assets but games get played with it from time to time.

MB


----------



## Sean K

*Re: PDN - Paladin Resources*



Moneybags said:


> Why do you say it will be a miracle Kennas.......because of the resistance there and the down trendline coinciding?



Yes MB, see the 3 year chart above and the previous support along $4.00. HUGE. That is now a hurdle, which happens to be around the downtrend line as well. There will probably be some technical shorting around those levels. Having sad that, you can now comfortably go long at $3.99. LOL


----------



## Sean K

*Re: PDN - Paladin Resources*

Just crissed the $4.00 mark and I expect more consolidation here, or it's going to be unleashed!

Not sure what will keep it going....

POU has some room to move up perhaps. All the talk is of demand over supply in the equation.....

General market keeps running...

Takeover spec by a major......

QLD Gov wins some IQ.....

Whatever, imo will be very bullish longer term if $4.00 is cracked!!!


----------



## shag

*Re: PDN - Paladin Resources*

yes it has a nice uptrend from my sqiz at the graph.
they sure love that new plant oening up.
i guess its a reasonably solid earner, with upgrades and other future prospects.


----------



## Sean K

*Re: PDN - Paladin Resources*

Could have put this article anywhere but since I own PDN it can go here. :

Does actually mention them down the bottom along with ERA and EXT.

Also read something about some extra nuke plants on the drawing board in China adding more to the supply/demand basis of support for POU.


*China ¿s CNNC held talks with Australian Uranium *
Elisabeth Behrmann | April 22, 2009 
Article from:  Dow Jones Newswires 

CHINA National Nuclear Corp has held preliminary talks with Australia uranium miners.

“We have contacted counterparts in Australia, and have held preliminary talks,” CNNC vice president Jiangang Qin told Dow Jones Newswires at the World Nuclear Fuel Cycle 2009 conference 

“But we need to verify the feasibility of certain projects before making any more details public. 

“We want to focus on our own production but we’d also like to make investments similar to Japan, to plug any shortage in Chinese uranium supply.” 

CNNC, the country’s body governing all supply of nuclear fuel for power generation, already has acquired an exploration interest in Niger. 

Talk of China seeking large-scale investment in Australia’s uranium miners has intensified in recent weeks. 

One Sydney-based investment banker said contact from Chinese companies had increased exponentially over the past two months, with inquiries focusing on the coal and uranium sector. 

China is particularly interested in companies already in production, such as Paladin Resources and Energy Resources Australia but also smaller miners at the exploration stage such as Extract Resources.


----------



## big sal

*Re: PDN - Paladin Resources*

another nice move up for PDN today to finish around $4.40

and what a day for uranium stocks in general, some of them up by big %'s:

up: TOE, NTU, EXT, DYL, WHE, AGS, BLR
down: EME
no change: ACB, FTE


----------



## big sal

*Re: PDN - Paladin Resources*



kennas said:


> Could have put this article anywhere but since I own PDN it can go here. :




attached is another article 'Uranium in a hot spot' from friday's financial review (24 april) which is worth a read, also mentions PDN


----------



## Sean K

*Re: PDN - Paladin Resources*

PDN has been absolute champion the past 5 months. Thanks PDN! Now, play fair and hold above this breakout line across and through $4.00. Maybe that upward resistance channel line was some support also. On the sum of it, you'd have to call this quite a significant breakthrough when you look at the long term charts. 

Obviously general market tumble or nuclear black swan incident will crump them.


----------



## shag

*Re: PDN - Paladin Resources*

fat profits had a yarn about the pdn animal thy've had for some time.
say a bit about the u differential, supply and demand. we know that anyway.
say a lowered production estimate
but says positive stuff on african jobbies turfing the product out...
says even sweeden have gone green in the respect of law changes re nuc's for power.
note chindia, states in demand. but really its all cr..p we know. like who couldnt tell it was an earner at 1.70 and above.
they r a bit hesitant technically shortterm, but they rarely seem to get things correct in a bear market.
i'm supprised they didnt slap a big buy or 'traffic light' on it.

i dont hold now sadly as i've slapped all my dosh, plus my bros dosh on other punts, and hes not too happy about it...

standard disclaimer..i don't read reports too flash. about as good as my spelling.


----------



## Out Too Soon

*Re: PDN - Paladin Resources*

I don't believe much TA skill is required with this one. How long will this pattern repeat?


 Or have I jumped in to late, is the cycle over?


----------



## Sean K

*Re: PDN - Paladin Resources*



Out Too Soon said:


> I don't believe much TA skill is required with this one. How long will this pattern repeat?
> 
> Or have I jumped in to late, is the cycle over?



I think it's probably run pretty far, but I'm still holding. Waiting for a decent pull back to pick up some more maybe, depending on the overall market. It's been a great 6 months, like for many stocks since the Nov lows.

It's trading at significant multiples isn't it? I think a lot of the forward development is factored in, and maybe even QLD being developed. Not sure about the Angela Pamela project though. This could be a left wing surprise if Comeco have some good hits. Already a significant resource there and with Comeco running with it, they have the resurces and clout to fast track any development. Could be a great bonus for PDN and get rid of some 'country risk' perception of them just being an African play. Surprised we didn't see some significant shareholder notices come out after the fall to $2.00.Wha an opprtunity for a major to scrape them up off the floor...


*More big uranium moves*
Robin Bromby | May 08, 2009 
Article from:  The Australian 

SOME people in Alice Springs are very upset at the news that drilling for uranium has just begun 25km out of town, and have been protesting to make their views known.

Hard cheese for them (and their counterparts who have fought uranium exploration near the Grand Canyon in the US). Work is going ahead in both cases. 

The global Canadian uranium player Cameco (which, incidentally, is based in Saskatoon, Saskatchewan) has begun drilling at the Angela prospect and expects to come up with some uranium hits in very short order 

This news is significant for two reasons. One is that it is further evidence of Cameco’s interest in Australia. The other is that the non-operator partner is Paladin Energy and underlines the potential that latter company presents as an even more influential player in the uranium world.


----------



## octeacher

*Re: PDN - Paladin Resources*

still good buy price?
no carbon footprints!
listed in the recent edition on money mag as a buy op due to the changing attitudes towards n power.
late ann made today.
any thoughts on this?


----------



## Sean K

*Re: PDN - Paladin Resources*



octeacher said:


> still good buy price?
> no carbon footprints!
> listed in the recent edition on money mag as a buy op due to the changing attitudes towards n power.
> late ann made today.
> any thoughts on this?



No more thoughts on those issues, all been done.

A nice little ascending triangle appearing in a strong upward move. If I didn't think the market was toppy, it'd be a high probability set up.


----------



## explod

*Re: PDN - Paladin Resources*



kennas said:


> No more thoughts on those issues, all been done.
> 
> A nice little ascending triangle appearing in a strong upward move. If I didn't think the market was toppy, it'd be a high probability set up.





And the ascension has occured.   

A very nice uptrend since late last year.  Pleased to have climbed on about a month ago.   Some are saying uranium will become a very needed and scarce resource down the track.   One suggest US$500 an ounce...whew.   Whatever a solid trending stock is always great to be on.

cheers explod


----------



## Sean K

*Re: PDN - Paladin Resources*



explod said:


> And the ascension has occured.
> 
> A very nice uptrend since late last year.  Pleased to have climbed on about a month ago.   Some are saying uranium will become a very needed and scarce resource down the track.   One suggest US$500 an ounce...whew.   Whatever a solid trending stock is always great to be on.
> 
> cheers explod



Yeah looks so, a probable target the width of the triangley thing. 

Market's still looking toppy though. Has been for weeks. 

This has been an exceptional pickup off the lows. 

What a trading opportunity!


----------



## Go Nuke

*Re: PDN - Paladin Resources*

What another great run by PDN today.

Some really big buy orders went through at $4.98 just before. Almost got to $5!!

Guess the new mine needs to be factored into PDN's share price. They also have their hands in alot of pies around Aus.....not to mention that small rumour of either t/o someone else or possibly be taken over themselves.

All good stuff


----------



## Sean K

*Re: PDN - Paladin Resources*

The long term breakout at 4 bucks was a good entry, if so inclined. 

The most recent breakout has held and she's moving with the tide.

Market is confounding me. Looks really overbought, but continues to hold. Can only assume all the money on the side has been put back in, but which money? Is the smart money already in and now the sheep are following holding the momentum up. Or what?


----------



## Boggo

*Re: PDN - Paladin Resources*



kennas said:


> Market is confounding me. Looks really overbought, but continues to hold. Can only assume all the money on the side has been put back in, but which money? Is the smart money already in and now the sheep are following holding the momentum up. Or what?




Giday kennas.
Because a lot of these stocks such as PDN, CVN etc are coming from such a low they can appear over bought on a daily chart, I am monitoring the weekly charts too for a better picture.

Compare the daily and weekly charts of CVN as an example.

Just my 

PS. I hold both CVN and PDN


----------



## Go Nuke

*Re: PDN - Paladin Resources*



Boggo said:


> Giday kennas.
> Because a lot of these stocks such as PDN, CVN etc are coming from such a low they can appear over bought on a daily chart, I am monitoring the weekly charts too for a better picture.
> 
> Compare the daily and weekly charts of CVN as an example.
> 
> Just my
> 
> PS. I hold both CVN and PDN




 Thats a very good point Boggo.

Averages recently crossing over for the first time in 5 yrs!:>

Plenty of room to grow in the Uranium industry.
I saw the old Telstra CEO on tv this morning still flogging Uranium as the next fuel source in OZ.


----------



## explod

*Re: PDN - Paladin Resources*

For the longer term this is one of my favourite stocks.  Got in a while back round $4.36 but the recent moves of the Dow worry me.  Could be why it has stalled a bit towards a sideways movement.  If the Dow drops off the perch it will as before take most with it, so opted out of this last week and will watch what pans out.   However I agree with the above that it is on value still in oversold territory.

On the five year weekly the action around this level back in 06 was considerable so the resistance here may just need some time to play out but a break above $5.50 would be significant.   Just dont' see it happenning for awhile.


----------



## Sean K

*Re: PDN - Paladin Resources*



explod said:


> For the longer term this is one of my favourite stocks.  Got in a while back round $4.36 but the recent moves of the Dow worry me.  Could be why it has stalled a bit towards a sideways movement.  If the Dow drops off the perch it will as before take most with it, so opted out of this last week and will watch what pans out.   However I agree with the above that it is on value still in oversold territory.
> 
> On the five year weekly the action around this level back in 06 was considerable so the resistance here may just need some time to play out but a break above $5.50 would be significant.   Just dont' see it happenning for awhile.



Still running away. Would have been a nice pick up at the lows, but heck, can't complain with the trajectory. I was really expecting more consolidaion around $4.00 earlier, but it's just been unrelenting. $5.50 isn't really that far away now explod, but I'd say $6.00 ish is a bigger hurdle. This looks very impulsive to me. I wonder if an EW er would call this a W1 or a 3 of a larger move. Must consolidate further at some point..


----------



## billhill

*Re: PDN - Paladin Resources*

Just noticed the extreme volume on friday for this one. I would have to say after a very strong run up that friday looks like major dumping into strength, something like a blow off high but the range is not paticularly impressive. I wouldn't expect much more upside and in fact will continue to watch this for a short position should the overall market also roll over.


----------



## Sean K

*Re: PDN - Paladin Resources*



billhill said:


> Just noticed the extreme volume on friday for this one. I would have to say after a very strong run up that friday looks like major dumping into strength, something like a blow off high but the range is not paticularly impressive. I wouldn't expect much more upside and in fact will continue to watch this for a short position should the overall market also roll over.



That's really unusual volume. I notice the stock fell from $5.20 ish to $5.03 in the last 30 mins of trade. Is this whenthe volume kicked in? Or was it off market activity? I haven't got course of sales.


----------



## billhill

*Re: PDN - Paladin Resources*



			
				kennas said:
			
		

> That's really unusual volume. I notice the stock fell from $5.20 ish to $5.03 in the last 30 mins of trade. Is this when the volume kicked in? Or was it off market activity? I haven't got course of sales.




I just checked the intraday chart and there was alot volume in the last half hour. However according to the chart below the majority of the volume was off market after 4:00. Any clues as to what off market trades this size could mean. I've not seen anything like this before so don't have a clue.


----------



## Sean K

*Re: PDN - Paladin Resources*



billhill said:


> I just checked the intraday chart and there was alot volume in the last half hour. However according to the chart below the majority of the volume was off market after 4:00. Any clues as to what off market trades this size could mean. I've not seen anything like this before so don't have a clue.



AOE was the same. Someone on HC claimed it was options expiry at the end of the month so there was a lot of shifting of shares between institutions. I thought that was supposed to happen in the morning on the last Thursday. Whatever, doesn't look too dramatic for the company as far as support goes if it was just instos swapping shares, for whatever reason.


----------



## darkside

*Re: PDN - Paladin Resources*

I bought in at $2.53, but had the intention of just staying for the long haul, clearly i am not the "warren Buffet" of investing because i thought this would be a good long term stock? Without giving advice and breaching ASF rules what would someone do in my position, should i hang in there or is this not really a long term stock just after different opinions. Thanks all.


----------



## Moneybags

*Re: PDN - Paladin Resources*

Darkside - you have made a 100% gain.......I'd consider that pretty good in this market. 

You have 3 choices......sell all, sell part of or hold. No one can tell you what is right for you.......only you can decide. But if I were you  I would sell half for what it cost you to enter and let the rest run ( free carried ).....of course if it tanks then you sell the remainder and keep maximum profit. 

MB


----------



## darkside

*Re: PDN - Paladin Resources*

Moneybags, cheers for that , i see the logic there, and as i had stated, my whole intent was to keep the shares , but your right selling half of them and just leaving the other half long term is a top idea. I could then use the cash on something a little more bluechip and a longer term proposition..


----------



## Moneybags

*Re: PDN - Paladin Resources*



darkside said:


> Moneybags, cheers for that , i see the logic there, and as i had stated, my whole intent was to keep the shares , but your right selling half of them and just leaving the other half long term is a top idea. I could then use the cash on something a little more bluechip and a longer term proposition..




No worries DS.........another strong day for PDN today.........makes it that bit harder to sell some doesn't it. Hope it works out for ya.

Personally I'm out of PDN for now as I need the cash for BMN SPP........hoping to pick up a good chunk of those babies. I still consider PDN a blue Chip in U sector and a long term hold.

MB


----------



## Sean K

*Re: PDN - Paladin Resources*

PDN taking a well earned rest after running too hard the past couple of months. Will be interesting to see if the old resistance holds firm. You'd expect so, but with the markets tanking, support pretty quickly evaporates.

I am still at a loss to Labor's stand on U mining in QLD when the State is broke and selling assets. I mean, it is just plane stupidity. It's gotta give at some point and when it does, it's Mt Isa tenaments should be quickly developed. Might be some time before Labor wake up, but will provide a significant fundamental boost to the company.


----------



## reggie_105

*Re: PDN - Paladin Resources*

Does anyone know why PDO has been taken off the ASX?

Cant find any news about this anywhere............................


----------



## Sean K

*Re: PDN - Paladin Resources*

Long term breakout continues.

The previous resistance across $4 and downward resistance respected, would have been a good entry.

Back challenging near recent highs through $5.00.


----------



## Boggo

*Re: PDN - Paladin Resources*

This chart is last Friday's data, I am long again from the 9th at 4.45.

Lets see if it makes the target, its played by the rules so far.

(click to expand)


----------



## Sean K

*Re: PDN - Paladin Resources*

Failed at $5.00 again, which turns that into decent resistance now. Going to be a task to break through there. POU has stagnated unlike other commodities that are running very hard. Disappointing. The demand supply equation still seems to be in favour of a rise, from what's been reported recently. However, there's a few big deposits in the works maybe not considered. EXT's going to have 300m lbs to dig up shortly. BHP's Yirralie (spelling) and a few popping up in the NT. If QLD ever grow a brain then there's lots more advanced projects there to come on line. And others. Would like to see a more recent and objective view of the supply demand outlook really.

PDN in the news today:


*Paladin's uranium investment pays off*
PURE SPECULATION:Robin Bromby | August 03, 2009 
Article from:  The Australian 

WHAT does John Borshoff have in mind regarding NGM Resources (NGM)?

The boss at uranium producer Paladin Energy (PDN) certainly has shown an acquisitive streak, his company now owning 19.29 per cent of Deep Yellow (DYL) and 81.9 per cent of Summit Resources (SMM), the explorer with by far the best uranium inventory in Queensland. Moreover, it has 42.1 per cent of the exciting Bigrlyi deposit in the Northern Territory and a 50-50 joint venture, also in the NT, with global uranium giant Cameco. 

In March, Paladin invested $500,000 into cash-strapped NGM, giving Borshoff's company a 14.3 per cent stake. Then he plonked another $300,000 on to NGM's table in May to move that stake up to 16.7 per cent. NGM has some strategic ground in Niger, now the world's fourth largest uranium producer and expected to be No2 by 2012. 

Two-thirds of Niger lies within the Sahara Desert, but it has great uranium riches. The French government's Areva already operates two uranium mines there and in 2012 will open the Imouraren mine, which will be the world's biggest uranium operation. Next year the China National Uranium Corp will bring the Somina mine into production. 

NGM has three concessions in Niger. The Australian company has drilled 27 holes, most of them hitting uranium mineralisation. Its commitment to Paladin, in return for the money, was to do 1500m of drilling. 

That commitment has now been completed and the deal with Paladin will expire on September 18. What happens then is probably known only to the people at Paladin. That company has already done well out of its investment, buying in when NGM stock was at 1.4c compared with the 15.5c close on Friday. 

The junior's bank balance was down to $483,000 on June 30 and chief executive Robert Kirtlan hasn't taken any salary since September -- NGM spent just $6000 on administration in the June quarter -- but he doesn't feel hard done by, given that he has 11 million shares in the joint. He, like the other shareholders, will be waiting to see what happens after that agreement with Paladin expires next month.


----------



## RIDGEWOOD

*Re: PDN - Paladin Resources*

Interesting article I saw online this morning regarding Paladin and a possible takeover by Cameco ( Paladin is listed on the Toronto Stock exchange as well as the ASX). As I am a newbie I cannot add a hyperlink as I have not posted 5 times previously. But if you want to google  "The Prince Albert Daily Herald" (its a Canadian mob) and go to the home page, the story is the current news article.

A quick disclosure, I currently own Paladin shares, and I do not endorse or take any responsibility in regards to the above mentioned article.

Cheers.


----------



## ands

*Re: PDN - Paladin Resources*

They have been talking about that takeover by Cameco for about 2 years. When I see it I'll believe it...


----------



## RIDGEWOOD

*Re: PDN - Paladin Resources*

Hi, interesting read in regards to PALADIN in talks with Chinese companies,
As i cannot post a link, due to being a newbie, (this rule is very frustrating) go to the UK homepage of reuters  and put Paladin in the search box, it should come up with the article "Paladin seeking up to $450 mln JV with China - CEO" 

I currently own Paladin stock, and I do not endorse or take responsibility for any of the material in the article.

Cheers.


----------



## Sean K

*Re: PDN - Paladin Resources*

Borshoff was wheeled out yesterday to give a presentation and sprewk the future of his company and uranium in general. Of course confirming that uranium supply demand equation is going to be supporting of POU. That might be so, but if we keep getting companies like EXT unearthing 300m ++ pounds every couple of years that situation may change. Of course, it may not be the pounds in the ground that are the significant thing but if a company can actually dig them out and process them. In that regard PDN is in a much better position having two operating mines and the capability to turn exploration to mining. They have quite a few other options for future development and should be able to be producing over 10m lbs pa from 2014 ish. That probably relies on some near term M&A and QLD growing a brain and opening up Valhalla/Skal to production. Borshoff seems confident that they will eventually change their mind, but why wouldn't be be when they spent almost a billion bucks on Summit when it couldn't even mine. In retrospect well over paid for. Should be news on this Chinese investment shortly. 

PDN stalled and going nowhere at the minute. That $5.00 region proving difficult. A break through this triangle might be significant. 

I have a feeling it's stalled here as all the uranium money has been flowing into EXT over the past few months. 

On mineweb:

*Paladin Energy to reach 8m lbs production by 2012*

By the end of 09 the Uranium miner will finish upgrading its Langer Heinrich operation and, within 3 years, hopes to have developed operations in Australia

Author: Ross Louthean 
Posted:  Thursday , 03 Sep 2009 

PERTH -  

Australia's big pathfinder on African uranium mining, Paladin Energy Ltd (ASX & TSX: PDN) will begin the US$71 million third-stage extension to its Langer Heinrich uranium mine by the end of this year.

Paladin's managing director John Borshoff told the opening session of the Paydirt Africa Downunder Conference in Perth Thursday that the ramp up would see the Namibian mine lift output by the end of 2010 to above 5 million pounds of U308.

Boirhsoff told delegates that Langer Heinrick should reach nameplate production of 3.7 M lb of U308 this month after the commissioning of the stage two development at a cost of US$55 M.

"Coinciding with that throughput milestone over the near term -- subject only now to environmental approvals -- will be the start to construction of stage three production for this alkaline leach operation and on which we now anticipate completion in the December quarter of next year," Borshoff said.

"The new expanded mine plan integrates the increased 164m lb (66m lb reserves) resource base for Langer Heinrich and this will help deliver a sustainable longer mine life for this flagship asset."

Over the next four years Paladin should be set to reach production of 6.6m lb this fiscal year and produce more than 8m lb by 2011/12.

Paladin's next mine, Kayelekera in Malawi, which will dramatically improve that poor nation's gross domestic product, should reach nameplate output of about 3.3m lb early next year, after a commissioning ramp up that began in January this year.

Borshoff said the acid leach/resin in pulp plant was now operating at 65% design capacity with what he described as excellent satellite targets at Juma and Mpata expected to add to resource expansion and the significant current ore stockpile in place at Kayelekera.

The development pipeline could see the company's Mount Isa in Queensland and Angela deposit in Australia's Northern Territory brought on steam from 2012. However, the Queensland project may need confirmation of a change of political heart by State's Premier Anna Bligh, now reportedly softening what had been a hardline stance by the Labor Party in Queensland on banning uranium mining.

Borshoff also said Paladin would continue to expand "Deep Yellow's Australian and Namibian uranium endeavours and NGM Resources' Niger uranium push.

"It is our belief the uranium market outlook remains very positive and though merger and acquisition activity, Paladin is presented with the opportunity to continue to establish a global uranium mining house."


----------



## TheMainMan

*Re: PDN - Paladin Resources*

I've taken profits on these, I figure if the **** hits the fan this September then no one is going to be wanting uranium anytime soon.


----------



## Seek$ucce$$

*Re: PDN - Paladin Resources*

Hi 

PDN partner, EME in Birqlyi project was offered a takeover. This is good news for PDN meaning someone actually value the project highly

However, given large stake in Birqlyi, I think PDN will not sit still and counter offer for full control

Could be an interesting bidding war for EME 

I own shares in EME's parent company JRL


----------



## Sean K

*Re: PDN - Paladin Resources*

Capital raising.

Up to 15% of issued capital. 

Hope it's not at too much of a discount. 


9 September 2009
Company Announcements Office Australian Securities Exchange
By Electronic Lodgement

Dear Sir/Madam

Paladin Energy Ltd Announces Proposed Institutional Placement of Shares

Paladin Energy Ltd (“Paladin”) today announced that it intends to undertake an institutional private placement of ordinary shares. The placement is expected to be for up to 15% of Paladin’s issued capital.

The price and terms of the offering will be determined by Paladin after an overnight marketing effort to be undertaken by RBC Capital Markets and UBS AG Australia Branch acting as Global Joint Lead Placing Agents and Cormark Securities Inc., Dundee Securities Corporation and GMP Securities L.P. as Co-Managers to the placement. The placement will be made pursuant to exemptions from registration and prospectus requirements under applicable securities laws and is subject to receipt of all applicable regulatory approvals, including approval of the Toronto Stock Exchange.

Paladin intends to use the funds raised to:

provide Paladin with the financial capacity to advance M&A and inorganic growth opportunities; 
progress the Langer Heinrich Stage III project (recently approved by the Board); 
expand exploration and pre-development programs in Australia; and 
enhance Paladin’s balance sheet flexibility to ensure Paladin remains well placed to take advantage of other international nuclear industry opportunities as they arise.


----------



## Seek$ucce$$

*Re: PDN - Paladin Resources*

PDN trading halt! raising money to takeover EME?? 

I am now really excited with the possibility Denison to enter the foray


----------



## Prospector

*Re: PDN - Paladin Resources*



Seek$ucce$$ said:


> PDN trading halt! raising money to takeover EME??
> 
> I am now really excited with the possibility Denison to enter the foray




Whether this is good or not depends on the level of discount, as Kennas mentioned.  A share (cant remember the name) fell 50% yesterday because of the discount it offered to raise capital.


----------



## skc

*Re: PDN - Paladin Resources*



Prospector said:


> Whether this is good or not depends on the level of discount, as Kennas mentioned.  A share (cant remember the name) fell 50% yesterday because of the discount it offered to raise capital.




It was probably ELD you are thinking about. Not only was that heavily discounted but they were raising over 2x their market cap.

PDN is only doing 15% of issued capital. So say they raise at 20% discount (which I doubt) to last close ($4.9) = placement price of $3.92. The theoretical ex-price would be around ~$4.75. Or a 3% drop.

With Uranium going a bit silly today that 3% drop might not even show up.


----------



## Nyden

*Re: PDN - Paladin Resources*



skc said:


> It was probably ELD you are thinking about. Not only was that heavily discounted but they were raising over 2x their market cap.
> 
> PDN is only doing 15% of issued capital. So say they raise at 20% discount (which I doubt) to last close ($4.9) = placement price of $3.92. The theoretical ex-price would be around ~$4.75. Or a 3% drop.
> 
> With Uranium going a bit silly today that 3% drop might not even show up.




When does that ever happen though? I was under the impression, that ordinarily -it's the average 5 day price (minus the discount)? I could be completely wrong though. In which case ... the drop could be *substantially* more than 3%, considering that PDN was at 4.5 only a few days ago.


----------



## Sean K

*Re: PDN - Paladin Resources*



Nyden said:


> When does that ever happen though? I was under the impression, that ordinarily -it's the average 10 day price (minus the discount)? I could be completely wrong though.



I've never seen an average actually. Would like to know. Probably heavily depends on the industry and type of stock.

Recently, raisings seem to have been taken as a positive thing in that a company has shored up it's balance sheet, reduced debt, and/or well into cash. All good things in this environment. 

And then, what's the cash for? In this case, they are looking at M&A opportunities and to expand their current mines. 

Might be looked at favourably no matter what the raising price, within reason...


----------



## Sean K

*Re: PDN - Paladin Resources*

DJ Paladin Placing Shares At A$4.45-A$4.70/Shr 

- Source 09/09/2009 10:57AM AEST  

MELBOURNE (Dow Jones)--Paladin Energy Ltd. (PDN.AU) plans to place new shares at A$4.45-A$4.70 a share, a person familiar with the situation said Wednesday. 

Paladin last traded at A$4.90 a share on the Australian Securities Exchange. 

The uranium miner said earlier Wednesday that it plans to issue up to 15% of its existing share capital to raise funds to progress the Stage III expansion of its Langer Heinrich uranium mine in Namibia. 

In statements to the Australian and Toronto stock exchanges, the dual listed miner said it will undertake an institutional private placement for up to 15% of its issued capital, which is currently valued at A$3.06 billion. 

The company said the price and terms of the placement will be determined by a process led by RBC Capital Markets and UBS, with Paladin expecting the trading halt in its Australian listed shares to remain until Thursday. However, trading in its Toronto listed securities is expected to continue Wednesday.


----------



## Nyden

*Re: PDN - Paladin Resources*



kennas said:


> I've never seen an average actually. Would like to know. Probably heavily depends on the industry and type of stock.
> 
> Recently, raisings seem to have been taken as a positive thing in that a company has shored up it's balance sheet, reduced debt, and/or well into cash. All good things in this environment.
> 
> And then, what's the cash for? In this case, they are looking at M&A opportunities and to expand their current mines.
> 
> Might be looked at favourably no matter what the raising price, within reason...




I guess as with the average(s), the sentiment following a raising is probably market / sector dependent as well. Perhaps with certain sectors, people actually buy into certain stocks on the hope of a retail offer? I know I'd love one on some of the banks I hold :

As always, could either go up, or down 

Edit, just seen your post. That's hardly even a discount, I do expect a flat to up open now.


----------



## Prospector

*Re: PDN - Paladin Resources*



skc said:


> It was probably ELD you are thinking about. Not only was that heavily discounted but they were raising over 2x their market cap.
> 
> PDN is only doing 15% of issued capital. So say they raise at 20% discount (which I doubt) to last close ($4.9) = placement price of $3.92. The theoretical ex-price would be around ~$4.75. Or a 3% drop.
> 
> With Uranium going a bit silly today that 3% drop might not even show up.




Yes, ELD was the one that featured.  These capital raisings never seem to do any good with the share price.  Will wait with PDN.


----------



## Sean K

*Re: PDN - Paladin Resources*

Off 3 or so % on the TSX so not too much damage. So, far. 

I suppose we wait to see who they are going to buy with this kitty now. Hopefully something advanced exploration in a mining friendly country, instead of a speculative explorer in Bligh Blah Land.

Their likely targets could be BMN and DYL I guess. DYL mc at $340 with $40m cash and projects right next to PDN in Namibia and in QLD around Mt Isa. Would seem to be a good fit. Plus they already own almost 20% of it. MD is a Director at LH.  

*Paladin Prices Placement of Shares*

9:42 AM ET, September 9, 2009

PERTH, WESTERN AUSTRALIA, Sep 9, 2009 (Marketwire via COMTEX) -- NOT FOR DISTRIBUTION TO UNITED STATES NEWSWIRE SERVICES OR FOR DISSEMINATION IN THE UNITED STATES 

Paladin Energy Ltd (PDN)(ASXDN) ("Paladin" or the "Company") yesterday announced that it has agreed to undertake an institutional private placement of 93.45 million ordinary shares (representing 15% of Paladin's issued capital) to raise approximately A$419 million (approximately C$391 million) net of fees paid to placing agents. 

*The placement was priced at A$4.60 *(approximately C$4.30) per share which represents a 6.1% discount to Paladin's last closing price on ASX and a 0.5% discount to Paladin's 5 day volume weighted average price on ASX.


----------



## Tukker

*Re: PDN - Paladin Resources*

With a predicted down day this coming Monday, and the recent rise in paladin volume, what do you think the sentiment of this one will be over the week?

The chart is showing some accumulation symptoms with a flag formation starting to take effect.  Maybe a drop on Monday towards 4.60 then maybe a breakout if nothing too terrifying happens in the general market. 

Too soon after a placement perhaps?

Watching closely.






P.s. How do i stop these charts from resizing after i post them?


----------



## eddyeagle

*Re: PDN - Paladin Resources*

Nice little triangle formed since June on Paladin. Volume has also been up considerably in the last few weeks. Hopefully a break out will result in the near future!


----------



## THE BUZZ

*Re: PDN - Paladin Resources*

nice move today on PDN, no news out but whispers of maybe being a target for the BIGger miners gaining strength???


----------



## skc

*Re: PDN - Paladin Resources*



THE BUZZ said:


> nice move today on PDN, no news out but whispers of maybe being a target for the BIGger miners gaining strength???




PDN went up partly because BHP declared force majure to some of their uranium customers, due to some incident that shut down a shaft at Olympic Dam. Uranium spot prices may increase as a result of this supply constraint.


----------



## Sean K

*Re: PDN - Paladin Resources*



skc said:


> PDN went up partly because BHP declared force majure to some of their uranium customers, due to some incident that shut down a shaft at Olympic Dam. Uranium spot prices may increase as a result of this supply constraint.



Yeah, could be completely because of the Olympic Dam problem. Could cut uranium production by 3m lbs or something. They reakon it'll be fixed sometime in the March quarter, but who knows. In there mean time operating at 25% capacity with the secondary shaft. 

Having said that, it did look like it was going to break further up from the triangle.


----------



## Prospector

*Re: PDN - Paladin Resources*

Teramin too has shot up in the last few days and other than their good management, I think the timing is based around BHP's accident.  Thanks for helping the little guys, BHP!


----------



## skc

*Re: PDN - Paladin Resources*



Prospector said:


> Teramin too has shot up in the last few days and other than their good management, I think the timing is based around BHP's accident.  Thanks for helping the little guys, BHP!




Isn't TZN a zinc miner? Or did the shaft incident affect zinc production as well. I thought only uranium and copper, but I confess I didn't read the briefing notes in full.



kennas said:


> Yeah, could be completely because of the Olympic Dam problem. Could cut uranium production by 3m lbs or something. They reakon it'll be fixed sometime in the March quarter, but who knows. In there mean time operating at 25% capacity with the secondary shaft.
> 
> Having said that, it did look like it was going to break further up from the triangle.




Yes the chart pattern was there and had it on my watch list, but the cap raising threw me off and took it off the radar. On the other hand, ERA hasn't moved as much and looks like a decent chance to break above $27.


----------



## Gurgler

*Re: PDN - Paladin Resources*

What a difference just over a week makes! 

Release a notice of expansion, AGM and some negativity in the US and what do you know - a 20% fall.

Itchy trigger finger again with the MACD about to cross over.


----------



## Sean K

*Re: PDN - Paladin Resources*



Gurgler said:


> What a difference just over a week makes!
> 
> Release a notice of expansion, AGM and some negativity in the US and what do you know - a 20% fall.
> 
> Itchy trigger finger again with the MACD about to cross over.



Yes, I thought I was very smart adding a few just before it broke up off the support line a few weeks ago.  Depends on your investment/trading style with these breakdowns. Conserve capital, or see it is a long term buying opportunity. Markets ran too far probably and maybe some more room for consolidation.


----------



## Logique

*Re: PDN - Paladin Resources*

Still following Gurgler and Kennas? Not the worst medium term/longterm prospect at current 3.87 -technically. 
Cannot understand the reluctance towards modern day nuclear power solutions (= so much further evolved). There is an aboriginal population in the NT that actually wants a waste dump. Sigh.


----------



## Logique

*Re: PDN - Paladin Resources*

Looked in again to see that it briefly touched 4.98 on Friday!  A 12 month high.

Should have got some back in May.


----------



## Sean K

*Re: PDN - Paladin Resources*



Logique said:


> Looked in again to see that it briefly touched 4.98 on Friday!  A 12 month high.
> 
> Should have got some back in May.



Yeah, just a little move on POU and they are all starting to move up. Uranium has still vastly under performed other commodities recently so maybe some more room to move. The Russian news is generally good also. Paladin was thrown up as a BHP option last week but they probably have enough with Olympic Dam. Not holding any more but still watching with interest.


----------



## tronic72

*Re: PDN - Paladin Resources*



Logique said:


> Still following Gurgler and Kennas? Not the worst medium term/longterm prospect at current 3.87 -technically.
> Cannot understand the reluctance towards modern day nuclear power solutions (= so much further evolved). There is an aboriginal population in the NT that actually wants a waste dump. Sigh.




Wait until the Greens force the Labour Party to close Hazelwood Power Station. The already skyrocketing Electricity prices will continue their rise. Nuclear Power will suddenly become a lot more attractive, especially in the mid-to-long term.

My 2c


----------



## Skunky

*Re: PDN - Paladin Resources*

PDN Sp is rising again.  
Does anyone know if the Australian floods are affecting Olympic Dam production?


----------



## 3aq1e

*Re: PDN - Paladin Resources*

pdn crashed of late, especially with the japan nuclear worries, despite pdn not supplying any product... 

looks like a good share to get aboard, whilst down atm.


----------



## qldfrog

*Re: PDN - Paladin Resources*



3aq1e said:


> pdn crashed of late, especially with the japan nuclear worries, despite pdn not supplying any product...
> 
> looks like a good share to get aboard, whilst down atm.




and went down again sharply today triggering some of my emergency exit!
Anyone knowing a specific reason for the fall?


----------



## alexc2005

*Re: PDN - Paladin Resources*

Possibly as a response to the change in general manager?

I'm considering these as they are close to their 52week low and i see no reason for them to do anything but succeed.


----------



## skyQuake

*Re: PDN - Paladin Resources*



qldfrog said:


> and went down again sharply today triggering some of my emergency exit!
> Anyone knowing a specific reason for the fall?




Namibia govt doing some nationalization shenanigans: Very bad for PDN's flagship Langer Heinrich mine.
Currently seeking clarification with govt.

Ditto with EXT.


----------



## Liar's Poker

*Re: PDN - Paladin Resources*



Skunky said:


> PDN Sp is rising again.
> Does anyone know if the Australian floods are affecting Olympic Dam production?




Floods are not affecting Olympic Dam. South Australia in general remained unharmed.

-Liar-


----------



## qldfrog

*Re: PDN - Paladin Resources*



skyQuake said:


> Namibia govt doing some nationalization shenanigans: Very bad for PDN's flagship Langer Heinrich mine.
> Currently seeking clarification with govt.
> 
> Ditto with EXT.




Yeap was the reason and still muddy for the time being
Thanks SkyQuake


----------



## robz7777

*Re: PDN - Paladin Resources*

The Namibian government has come out with a release saying that current licenses will not be affected by recent announcements that sounded like they would be nationalising resources. 

Good news for PDN. Also much like the Gulf Oil spill with BP; I don't think it will be too long before Uranium isn't a dirty word anymore and we see a bit more interest in stocks like PDN and EXT. 

Unless the US falls over that is..


----------



## Logique

*Re: PDN - Paladin Resources*

I think you're right robz7777,
as a former shareholder, the time is soon that I will return to PDN and EXT. 

Factor in also as you say, (past) peak oil, and baseline power options become limited.

Given that a combined earthquake and tsunami in Japan failed to bring on the mushroom cloud catastrophe some may have expected (and buliding reactors on top of a known fault line made it risky from the start), the realization that nuclear must be  part of a carbon reduced future will begin to dawn.


----------



## zomfgwtfbbq

*Re: PDN - Paladin Resources*

Another one which has been taking a hammering in the past month or so. Market shot it down to $2.22. Anyone here taking positions now?


----------



## Starcraftmazter

*Re: PDN - Paladin Resources*



zomfgwtfbbq said:


> Another one which has been taking a hammering in the past month or so. Market shot it down to $2.22. Anyone here taking positions now?




I actually sold off during the recent highs taking a nice profit. I am thinking about coming back, but the thing is there are a lot of good picks after last week, and I'm being driven elsewhere.

I would say PDN is a good bet if you're willing to go long, but not the best short to medium term buy.


----------



## poverty

*Re: PDN - Paladin Resources*

In for $2.18 - Lets make some thermonuclear bombs!


----------



## alexc2005

*Re: PDN - Paladin Resources*

Good announcement today.

$2, must be pretty undervalued at the moment!

Not sure if ill get in or not.. I think its better to watch from the sidelines in these volatile times..


----------



## Ryano91

*Re: PDN - Paladin Resources*

Do you guys think this company has much lower to go?.... It is at a 3 year low


----------



## robz7777

*Re: PDN - Paladin Resources*



Ryano91 said:


> Do you guys think this company has much lower to go?.... It is at a 3 year low




Of course it can!! Whether it recovers is another question. 

Interesting to note however is that if the forecast dividend remains in place we will see a yield of over 6% (based on current price levels) in 2012..


----------



## Starcraftmazter

*Re: PDN - Paladin Resources*

I've pretty much stopped paying attention to this for the time being. There is nothing in my view that will drive a strong SP recovery until something quite major happens either in the company or a worldwide economic recovery. 

I thought this stock would bottom out many times on it's way down. Thankfully the only time I did buy it was very short term and I made a profit, but since then I've been too hesitant and have simply become uninterested.

At least for the time being.


----------



## zomfgwtfbbq

*Re: PDN - Paladin Resources*



Starcraftmazter said:


> I've pretty much stopped paying attention to this for the time being. There is nothing in my view that will drive a strong SP recovery until something quite major happens either in the company or a worldwide economic recovery.
> 
> I thought this stock would bottom out many times on it's way down. Thankfully the only time I did buy it was very short term and I made a profit, but since then I've been too hesitant and have simply become uninterested.
> 
> At least for the time being.




Got rid of it at $1.91. Had the same view as you. Chopped my hand off just to save the rest of my body... PRR on the other hand...


----------



## tothemax6

*Re: PDN - Paladin Resources*

I think people are being very short sighted with this stock. Does anybody here really believe that the world is going to _reduce_ its consumption of uranium in the future? There are only two ways one can believe this:

One has ones head in a cloud and believes that renewable energies have the power density required to support industrial societies
One believes the world is going to hell in a hand-basket, and hence the long term trend of increasing energy consumption rates is going to end, and plummet instead
If you think the first, well whatever. If you think the second, you should probably be researching survivalism.
Too many people reading into the squiggle.


----------



## Starcraftmazter

*Re: PDN - Paladin Resources*

I have a pretty short-term perspective, yes. Long-term I would agree PDN is reasonably good. This is however not a good reason to hold during a downtrend.


----------



## LostMyShirt

*Re: PDN - Paladin Resources*



Starcraftmazter said:


> I have a pretty short-term perspective, yes. Long-term I would agree PDN is reasonably good. This is however not a good reason to hold during a downtrend.




It would be the best time to hold in my opinion, purely based on technicals. The stock is currently at a long term support level and we may very well see, at least in the short term, a nice bounce.

On first glance the stock seem fundamentaly sound, however that is on first glance. I may keep my eye on this one.


----------



## Sean K

*Re: PDN - Paladin Resources*

Has anyone learnt anything over the past 3 years?.

Yep, must be a bargain now. 

Good time to draw down on that finance facility while we head into a depression.


----------



## skc

*Re: PDN - Paladin Resources*



LostMyShirt said:


> It would be the best time to hold in my opinion, purely based on technicals. The stock is currently at a long term support level and we may very well see, at least in the short term, a nice bounce.
> 
> On first glance the *stock seem fundamentaly sound*, however that is on first glance. I may keep my eye on this one.




And their profits for the last 3 years were...?

They struggled to make money when uranium price was sky high and before Fukushima... what needs to change for them to become profitable?


----------



## LostMyShirt

*Re: PDN - Paladin Resources*



skc said:


> what needs to change for them to become profitable?




Can't answer that; wouldn't have the slightest.


----------



## tothemax6

*Re: PDN - Paladin Resources*

Wow, how low can it go? 50c?


----------



## Sean K

*Re: PDN - Paladin Resources*



tothemax6 said:


> Wow, how low can it go? 50c?



They are effectively bankrupt right now.

Huge losses and the only way they can pay debts and develop is to go to the market at a discount. Their finance facilities are just putting them deeper and deeper in debt that they will not be able to pay back on the current trend. 

They have totally relied on a positive outlook for the U industry in a positive market environment and they do not have it. Maybe for another 5-10 years.

Could end up in moth balls.


----------



## FA3TS

*Re: PDN - Paladin Resources*

If that is correct why has today seen an  11% rise at this moment and a volume of near 8million. As a newcomer I am not sure what the share release announcment means


----------



## albaloushi

*Re: PDN - Paladin Resources*

Negative cash flows, poor operating performance, and low uranium prices are making investors cautious about PDN.  The managment needs to show investors that they can deliver against thier promises and the recent shut down for KL won't help the Sept. Quarter numberd, so we should expect anegative cash flow and again more negative sentiment.

Short term cataysts for PDN are: divesting non-core assets, higher uranium prices, and being a takover target!! BUT why NO ONE from major players is NOT interseted in PDN yet?


----------



## Starcraftmazter

*Re: PDN - Paladin Resources*



albaloushi said:


> Short term cataysts for PDN are: divesting non-core assets, higher uranium prices, and being a takover target!! BUT why NO ONE from major players is NOT interseted in PDN yet?




I would imagine a company like PDN would be taken over if it specifically was undervalued, however at the present time the entire sector is under substantial pressure, so I do not see any motivation for anyone to buy a Uranium company.


----------



## albaloushi

*Re: PDN - Paladin Resources*



Starcraftmazter said:


> I would imagine a company like PDN would be taken over if it specifically was undervalued, however at the present time the entire sector is under substantial pressure, so I do not see any motivation for anyone to buy a Uranium company.




I do agree that the Uranium industry is under pressure for the short and medium term, but taking a view for longer term, it is very hard to replace the power coming from nuclear reactors with any other source. Most of the purposed planned, and under construction reactors are in countries that show commitment to proceed with these projectors such as China and India.  Other countries like EU are just making noise for political reasons and maybe some safety reviews, but at the end these reactor will be in functioning!!


----------



## Starcraftmazter

*Re: PDN - Paladin Resources*



albaloushi said:


> I do agree that the Uranium industry is under pressure for the short and medium term, but taking a view for longer term, it is very hard to replace the power coming from nuclear reactors with any other source. Most of the purposed planned, and under construction reactors are in countries that show commitment to proceed with these projectors such as China and India.  Other countries like EU are just making noise for political reasons and maybe some safety reviews, but at the end these reactor will be in functioning!!




Sure, and I agree with that, but I was addressing the point that I doubt PDN will be bought out anytime soon, as U miners simply don't have the cash flow at the moment to justify such a purchase.


----------



## explod

*Re: PDN - Paladin Resources*

Could be time to flick the dust off Paladin with a change in sentiment from Julia.

It will be remembered that this was touching $10.50 back in the Liberal Regime, then dropped to about $5, but the disaster in Japan took the floor out to as low as $1.25.

The action yesterday saw it approach a breakout with the down trend line (from March) breaking to the upside, and stronger today, so think it is well worth a punt for me.


----------



## noirua

*Re: PDN - Paladin Resources*



explod said:


> Could be time to flick the dust off Paladin with a change in sentiment from Julia.
> 
> It will be remembered that this was touching $10.50 back in the Liberal Regime, then dropped to about $5, but the disaster in Japan took the floor out to as low as $1.25.
> 
> The action yesterday saw it approach a breakout with the down trend line (from March) breaking to the upside, and stronger today, so think it is well worth a punt for me.




Absolutely agree as this sector is truly bombed out. Quite a few stocks have reacted today including Deep Yellow DYL. That doesn't mean, I think, that it's back to the $100+ per pound for uranium, just a big jump back to fair ratings.


----------



## Gringotts Bank

*Re: PDN - Paladin Resources*

Me 3.  Been a shorter's paradise for a long time.  Big upside as a longer term investment.

I don't hold any.


----------



## poverty

*Re: PDN - Paladin Resources*

After the last few days going to be more than a few shorters starting to panic, short-covering could send the price up fast.


----------



## noirua

*Re: PDN - Paladin Resources*



poverty said:


> After the last few days going to be more than a few shorters starting to panic, short-covering could send the price up fast.



Stock has been mentioned in London after comments about the 28% rise in Deep Yellow DYL.  PM Julia Gillard is leading the way to re-generate the uranium sector.


----------



## notting

*Re: PDN - Paladin Resources*

It's always been silly that we sell uranium to China and not India. India is a genuine democracy as far as democracies seem to be traveling in this world. 
China is an unscrupulous, dictating, unbridled monster!

India is potentially a useful allied buffer between us and China. 
China would invade us in a heartbeat as soon as they felt they could get away with it. Our farms, space for people and material wealth is perfect for them.

It's interesting that US is increasing forces in the NT. Media is reporting *Chinese spying *on our war ships and military bases through satellites *we gave them access to!!* And we have suddenly done an about face on uranium sales to India.

However we need to concentrate more on the invasion that is already occurring. If we allow their so-called immigrants into our political system they will eat us out like white ants. They love that tactic, *it's the cheapest.*

One Chinese pawn got through our system and managed to be Melbourne’s longest serving lord mayor. He was a lovely smiley, chuckling gregarious looking man who everyone seemed to love, then the truth came to light and he quietly resigned and slipped out of site:


> "EMBATTLED Lord Mayor John So has handed out a fortune in ratepayer-funded grants to Melbourne's Chinese community.
> 
> In one year, Chinese groups - the backbone of the Melbourne mayor's political support - received $330,000.
> 
> All of the city's other ethnic groups combined received less than half the amount allotted to the Chinese community.
> 
> Cr So, a former city restaurateur, oversaw a $30,000 grant by Melbourne Council to the Chinese Restaurateurs Association of Victoria.
> 
> Hundreds of thousands of dollars more bankrolled Chinese federations, Chinese opera, dragon boat races and trips to China.
> 
> Cr So's Chinese affiliations have been described by critics as vote-buying and nepotism.
> 
> Italian Australian Institute spokesman Gerardo Papalia said the whole Italian community receiving less in grants than a handful of Chinese restaurateurs was not just.
> 
> Start of sidebar. Skip to end of sidebar.
> 
> End of sidebar. Return to start of sidebar.
> 
> "That's going in the wrong direction. It's important that all cultures are looked at and not have Melbourne characterised by one ethnic community against all the rest," he said.
> 
> Australian Greek Welfare Society executive Voula Messimeri-Kianidis said the council had a responsibility to be equitable in its grants.
> 
> Cr So said there was a rigorous process for assessing grant applications." *- Typical slogan line of a communist Chinaman that sounds good but has nothing real backing it!!*
> Heral Sund





> "It is not the first time the Lord Mayor has been accused of dabbling in Chinese politics.
> 
> In 2003, the council banned the Falun Gong group from taking part in the Moomba parade because they were "too political''.
> 
> The Lord Mayor was reportedly under pressure from the Chinese business community to exclude the group, which has been banned in China since 1999. The group claims 500 practitioners have been killed for their beliefs.
> 
> The council was later ordered by the state appeals tribunal to apologise to group and apologise in Chinese newspapers.
> 
> In 2002, Cr So said a decision not to offer the Dalai Lama a city reception had "nothing to do with his Chinese origin".
> -the age



it’s not so much patriotism to 'Ausi multi culture' that is of concern, it's the appalling and massive human rights threat that comes with inbred sociopathic China when they get power. China is the world champion of enslaving, torturing, silencing and propagandising.


----------



## noirua

*Re: PDN - Paladin Resources*

notting, there are also so many things wrong with India where businesses enslave children and sometimes as young as five. I remember one young man [name escapes me, sorry] who was kept small by being underfed and made superhuman efforts to publicise the terrors of business in India -- the result, he wsa murdered. 

So fair enough, publicise much that is wrong in China but I could write pages on human rights violations in India.


----------



## mr. jeff

*Re: PDN - Paladin Resources*



notting said:


> It's always been silly that we sell uranium to China and not India. India is a genuine democracy as far as democracies seem to be traveling in this world.
> China is an unscrupulous, dictating, unbridled monster! ...
> 
> China would invade us in a heartbeat as soon as they felt they could get away with it...
> 
> However we need to concentrate more on the invasion that is already occurring. If we allow their so-called immigrants into our political system they will eat us out like white ants. They love that tactic, *it's the cheapest.*
> 
> One Chinese pawn got through our system...
> 
> 
> it’s not so much patriotism to 'Ausi multi culture' that is of concern, it's the appalling and massive human rights threat that comes with inbred sociopathic China when they get power. China is the world champion of enslaving, torturing, silencing and propagandising.




You may say you're dislexic but you should probably change your tag to "forgive me, I'm dislexic and xenohphobic !

Your post was just too funny to resist! 

This is a thread for PDN, not for encouraging people to put stickers on their utes.

In regards to PDN, looks like this timing could be perfect for a sustained recovery from their lows, will be interesting to see what comes of it. Might be some takeover potential here and as others have pointed out, there has been a lot of shorting here recently so the turnaround could be quite sudden.


----------



## albaloushi

*Re: PDN - Paladin Resources*

Next rebalance for MSCI will happen by the close of 30th November and PDN will be deleted with estimated flows of -26m shares worth -$44m !! We might see some selling before that date.


----------



## explod

*Re: PDN - Paladin Resources*



albaloushi said:


> Next rebalance for MSCI will happen by the close of 30th November and PDN will be deleted with estimated flows of -26m shares worth -$44m !! We might see some selling before that date.




In and out with a small profit, looked like a lack of further interest today.

But it is one to watch in its currrent form, but perhaps we have a long way to go to get the pits here in Aus really going again.


----------



## Chalea

*Re: PDN - Paladin Resources*

Symmetrical triangle breakdown
Target = 80c


----------



## notting

*Re: PDN - Paladin Resources*

Hey Chalea if your that keen why not.
Go for a swing lower short!
Stop loss at 1.855 todays high.
Move stop to 1.6 when it hits 1.55.
win win, moral and financial for you.
But I know nothen. Infact, I'm just a virus crawlen around earthland.


----------



## mr. jeff

*Re: PDN - Paladin Resources*

All hypothetical levels drawn in, but so far so good for PDN's return to favour.
Hopefully a bid comes in soon, or at least some interest, which will keep the run alive. Strong action lately, very encouraging.


----------



## notting

*Re: PDN - Paladin Resources*

Plenty of freaked out holders jumping off after it sticks it's head up in the morning.
Still once they go, it may go, if the brokers keep talking up uranium as they have since PDN announced it's upbeat production increase.


----------



## Renitent_Precept

*Re: PDN - Paladin Resources*

Fell through the floor today, but does anyone think it's a bit of an over reaction?


----------



## intake

*Re: PDN - Paladin Resources*

What is going on here???? Is this stock on the way to the bottom or what!! Any thought's


----------



## Moneybags

*Re: PDN - Paladin Resources*



intake said:


> What is going on here???? Is this stock on the way to the bottom or what!! Any thought's




Uranium well out of favour right now

MB


----------



## Out Too Soon

*Re: PDN - Paladin Resources*



Moneybags said:


> Uranium well out of favour right now
> 
> MB




Driven by public fear all due to poor management of ancient nuclear plants that should have been shut down long ago due to their antiquity. Nothing wrong with modern well run nuclear plants except public fear, thanks to Tepco & Japanese politicians. :frown:


----------



## ftw129

Investors and brokers can look for any excuses they like as to why the share price is going down or why everyone should buy or sell the stock but the fact of the matter is, the stock has been declining since 2006 so why should it be any different now?

Trying to figure out the why, when and how... good luck!

The truth is in the price action.


----------



## howmanyru

*Re: PDN - Paladin Resources*



Chalea said:


> Symmetrical triangle breakdown
> Target = 80c
> 
> View attachment 45602




Great call ! Spot on Chalea, low of 80c. I have been watching this stock closely, seems to be on a sustained uptrend and U price recovering. Keen to buy off the chart trend but i know little about the company management or financial postion. Anyone have a good knowledge of this company and can provide a summary opinion?


----------



## frally

Anyone got any thoughts about Paladin, given the recent buyin and stock price ?


----------



## skyQuake

frally said:


> Anyone got any thoughts about Paladin, given the recent buyin and stock price ?




What recent buyin? The UBS notice? Means nothing

Lots of selling though!


----------



## pixel

skyQuake said:


> What recent buyin? The UBS notice? Means nothing
> 
> Lots of selling though!




UBS have been in and out of "substantial" holdings. They're bluddy day traders 
Ranking 4th in August in terms of total turnover, they're net sellers by more than $1.2M. 
Deutsche Bank ($11M), Citi ($10.7M), Credit Suisse ($6M), Morgan Stanley ($3M), and BTA ($1.5M) are ahead of them as significant net sellers. It's onliners like Commsec ($16.3M), E*Trade ($5.1M) that have bought up.

You can draw your own conclusions from that...


----------



## pixel

Accident at Langer Heinrich: 3 employees suffering burns.
http://www.asx.com.au/asx/statistics/displayAnnouncement.do?display=pdf&idsId=01450234

Best wishes for a speedy and full recovery.


----------



## ThingyMajiggy

pixel said:


> UBS have been in and out of "substantial" holdings. They're bluddy day traders
> Ranking 4th in August in terms of total turnover, they're net sellers by more than $1.2M.
> Deutsche Bank ($11M), Citi ($10.7M), Credit Suisse ($6M), Morgan Stanley ($3M), and BTA ($1.5M) are ahead of them as significant net sellers. It's onliners like Commsec ($16.3M), E*Trade ($5.1M) that have bought up.
> 
> You can draw your own conclusions from that...
> 
> View attachment 53989





Where/How did you find out that information about who's buying or selling? 

PDN down to 30c now


----------



## pixel

ThingyMajiggy said:


> Where/How did you find out that information about who's buying or selling?
> 
> PDN down to 30c now




Sorry TM, I missed your question 
It's a regular report provided by Pulse, the support software provided by my broker, Open Markets.




I can request it for any time period and sort the result by any column; in the above, I sorted by net value to find the main sellers over the past 6 weeks.
My other software package, Market Analyser 7, alerted me recently that PDN was likely to bounce back up. That's why I thought I'd post an updated chart today.




Elliott Wave specialists may like to comment on the wave structure since June:


----------



## pixel

It's been a long slide.
Have we found support at last? I guess we might, and I'm again Long one position.




stop if it breaks again below 20c.


----------



## Miner

last posting on this thread was 27 Oct 2015 - thanks to Pixel.
Today PDN published the financial report. It will be blood shed on the price I believe after reading it closely.
Can Trump save the price ? Lets see tomorrow.


----------



## verce

As we head towards the open tomorrow, let us reflect on the President-Elect's comments from 2011. Perhaps this will offer insight into the energy policy the new administration will articulate after the inauguration.

*Published March 15, 2011 | Your World Cavuto | Neil Cavuto*

*TRUMP*: I'm in favor of nuclear energy, very strongly in favor of nuclear energy. You know, it's sort of interesting.  Somebody was explaining if a plane goes down, people keep flying. If you get into an auto crash, people keep driving.

*TRUMP*: There are problems in life. Not everything is so perfect. You have to look very carefully, though, at really taking care; have the best, the best people in terms of safeguards for nuclear energy. But we do need nuclear energy, and we need a lot of it fast.

http://www.eurasiareview.com/301220...ry-may-fuel-uranium-and-nuclear-sectors-oped/


----------



## Jurgen

is PDN becoming a takeover target?


----------



## pixel

verce said:


> As we head towards the open tomorrow, let us reflect on the President-Elect's comments from 2011. Perhaps this will offer insight into the energy policy the new administration will articulate after the inauguration.
> 
> *Published March 15, 2011 | Your World Cavuto | Neil Cavuto*
> 
> *TRUMP*: I'm in favor of nuclear energy, very strongly in favor of nuclear energy. You know, it's sort of interesting.  Somebody was explaining if a plane goes down, people keep flying. If you get into an auto crash, people keep driving.
> 
> *TRUMP*: There are problems in life. Not everything is so perfect. You have to look very carefully, though, at really taking care; have the best, the best people in terms of safeguards for nuclear energy. But we do need nuclear energy, and we need a lot of it fast.
> 
> http://www.eurasiareview.com/301220...ry-may-fuel-uranium-and-nuclear-sectors-oped/



Somebody ought to tell the POTUS that by far the safest, practically inexhaustible nuclear energy is made inside a huge reactor that's a safe distance away: 150M k's as the photon flies. You don't have to dig and enrich uranium. You don't have to build a string of massive reactors that risk Chernobylling the environment for millennia to come. All it takes is some mirrors or photovoltaic cells spread over acres in deserts, and you capture the energy at practically zero operational costs.


----------



## Jurgen

Jurgen said:


> is PDN becoming a takeover target?





pixel said:


> Somebody ought to tell the POTUS that by far the safest, practically inexhaustible nuclear energy is made inside a huge reactor that's a safe distance away: 150M k's as the photon flies. You don't have to dig and enrich uranium. You don't have to build a string of massive reactors that risk Chernobylling the environment for millennia to come. All it takes is some mirrors or photovoltaic cells spread over acres in deserts, and you capture the energy at practically zero operational costs.





pixel said:


> Somebody ought to tell the POTUS that by far the safest, practically inexhaustible nuclear energy is made inside a huge reactor that's a safe distance away: 150M k's as the photon flies. You don't have to dig and enrich uranium. You don't have to build a string of massive reactors that risk Chernobylling the environment for millennia to come. All it takes is some mirrors or photovoltaic cells spread over acres in deserts, and you capture the energy at practically zero operational costs.



Is this a reply to the takeover possibility or are you just making a statement?


----------



## pixel

Jurgen said:


> Is this a reply to the takeover possibility or are you just making a statement?



On my screen, it shows the post and poster it was responding to. It starts with 
"verce said
As we head towards the open tomorrow, let us reflect on the President-Elect's comments from 2011. ..."
the President-Elect referred to is meanwhile the POTUS.


----------



## Jurgen

Has anybody else a comment on a possible takeover?


----------



## skc

http://www.afr.com/business/mining/...s-after-us277m-payment-demand-20170703-gx3vjv

RIP PDN.

You once had a $5B market cap. 
You once inspired hundreds of small ASX companies to chase after uranium assets and tenements. 
You once made thousands of retail investors think they are awesome investors. 
Your demise dented the hopes of many, on how you can't just put a share in the bottom draw for them to miraculously come good.
Tens of thousands of investors will see a picture of you, when they look up boom-to-bust in the dictionary. 
You shall remain one of the fabled chapters on the ASX.
Indeed, your death is probably what the uranium industry needs to most. Although I doubt the assets will actually stop operating.
May you meet your other old friends in corporate heaven.


----------



## Jurgen

Is Uranium becoming Obsolete?
http://oilprice.com/Energy/Energy-General/Uranium-Prices-Set-To-Double-By-2018.html


----------



## rb250660

It's unreal hey. I know a guy who made a significant portion of his wealth from this stock.


----------



## Jurgen

It sure is hey. Only time will tell for the 26,500 Shareholders what type of sharks they are?


----------



## greggles

At last, rejigged Paladin back on the boards

It lives! A recapitalised and restructured Paladin Energy re-instated to official quotation. 

Does PDN really stand a chance given its chequered history?


----------



## pixel

greggles said:


> At last, rejigged Paladin back on the boards
> 
> It lives! A recapitalised and restructured Paladin Energy re-instated to official quotation.
> 
> Does PDN really stand a chance given its chequered history?



After consolidation, top 20 are holding 95% of the new shares.
Holders of the old shares lost 98% of previous volume and over 90% of last-traded value.

Of course, neither of that will guarantee the new Paladin's survival.
Glad I wasn't involved. Sold the last of my holdings in 2007 and never went back.


----------



## Joules MM1

pixel said:


> After consolidation, top 20 are holding 95% of the new shares.
> Holders of the old shares lost 98% of previous volume and over 90% of last-traded value.
> 
> Of course, neither of that will guarantee the new Paladin's survival.
> Glad I wasn't involved. Sold the last of my holdings in 2007 and never went back.
> 
> View attachment 86295




@pixel  , are you thinking 95% T20 held  means a shell play for a whole new ballgame? 
(am holding A1C based on the same profile albeit lesser held as  % of total scrip avail)


----------



## pixel

Joules MM1 said:


> @pixel  , are you thinking 95% T20 held  means a shell play for a whole new ballgame?
> (am holding A1C based on the same profile albeit lesser held as  % of total scrip avail)



I have no idea what the T20 are up to, whether they're re-opening some mines or keeping everything mothballed. All I noticed was the reappearance of PDN on the active board, at a sp rise by some 300%, which of course is due to the consolidation. I haven't read the other announcements around the relisting because at this stage, PDN is of no particular interest to me.


----------



## YELNATS

pixel said:


> Holders of the old shares lost 98% of previous volume and over 90% of last-traded value.
> View attachment 86295




As a holder I'm stunned they took away 98% of my holding. Grand larcency. Can they really legally do that?


----------



## pixel

YELNATS said:


> As a holder I'm stunned they took away 98% of my holding. Grand larcency. Can they really legally do that?



Be glad they left you some.
The company was broke; if they had let it die, you would've been left with nothing.


----------



## greggles

Paladin Energy looks to be moving up and out of the consolidation zone it has been trading in for the last couple of months. Volume very heavy today and yesterday but no apparent catalyst for the move north.

PDN closed today near its high and is looking bullish.


----------



## barney

Paladin have $50 million in Cash with a Market Cap of around +$300 million … If the price action stays positive, I'd say they are back in the race ...


----------



## Trav.

Another one to watch. I am currently maxed out on positions so can't take position today. BO of $0.16 would be the trigger


----------



## BoNeZ

It's been heading lower but ended higher today on higher than average volume. Hoping for a bounce in the coming days.


----------



## Dark1975

Pdn , Well from a chart perspective ,The 1day time frame of pdn  is  consolidating nicely and forming for a possible breakout if it cracks   0.35.5 ?
Well uranium at is lows if you consider prices 10 years ago, Although nuclear power not quite popular in Australia, used heavily in other countries ,
I'm liking this chart,
Please DYOR

P.S : For some reason it didn't show, tho the two ema (exponential) used were the 26 and 12,


----------



## greggles

PDN has been quietly undergoing a transformation in 2021. They have just raised $218 million, are extinguishing legacy corporate debt and are working towards the restart of the Langer Heinrich uranium mine.

PDN rises again?






Is uranium about to enter a bull market?









						Video
					

Commodities | Video




					www.bnnbloomberg.ca


----------



## TechnoCap

greggles said:


> PDN has been quietly undergoing a transformation in 2021. They have just raised $218 million, are extinguishing legacy corporate debt and are working towards the restart of the Langer Heinrich uranium mine.
> 
> PDN rises again?
> 
> View attachment 123746
> 
> 
> Is uranium about to enter a bull market?
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> Video
> 
> 
> Commodities | Video
> 
> 
> 
> 
> www.bnnbloomberg.ca



certainly seems this way based on volume and price movement across most uranium stocks today and of late...


----------



## Stockbailx

Paladin Energy Limited develops and operates uranium mines in Australia, Canada, and Africa. The company operates through Exploration, Namibia, Malawi, and Australia segments. Its flagship project is the Langer Heinrich mine located in the Namib Desert in Namibia. The company was formerly known as Paladin Resources Ltd and changed its name to Paladin Energy Limited in November 2007. The company was incorporated in 1993 and is based in Perth, Australia.


			http://www.aspecthuntley.com.au/docserver/02381228.pdf?fileid=02381228&datedir=20210603&edt=MjAyMS0wNi0wNCsxNzoyMDozMSs0ODArMTM2MzQ0MCthbmRyZXd3ZXN0K3JlZGlyZWN0K2h0dHA6Ly93d3cuYXNwZWN0aHVudGxleS5jb20uYXUvaW1hZ2VzaWduYWwvZXJyb3JwYWdlcy9wZGZ0aW1lb3V0Lmh0bWwraHR0cDovL3d3dy5hc3BlY3RodW50bGV5LmNvbS5hdS9pbWFnZXNpZ25hbC9lcnJvcnBhZ2VzL3BkZmRlbGF5ZWQuanNw


----------



## TechnoCap

Stockybailz said:


> Paladin Energy Limited develops and operates uranium mines in Australia, Canada, and Africa. The company operates through Exploration, Namibia, Malawi, and Australia segments. Its flagship project is the Langer Heinrich mine located in the Namib Desert in Namibia. The company was formerly known as Paladin Resources Ltd and changed its name to Paladin Energy Limited in November 2007. The company was incorporated in 1993 and is based in Perth, Australia.
> 
> 
> http://www.aspecthuntley.com.au/docserver/02381228.pdf?fileid=02381228&datedir=20210603&edt=MjAyMS0wNi0wNCsxNzoyMDozMSs0ODArMTM2MzQ0MCthbmRyZXd3ZXN0K3JlZGlyZWN0K2h0dHA6Ly93d3cuYXNwZWN0aHVudGxleS5jb20uYXUvaW1hZ2VzaWduYWwvZXJyb3JwYWdlcy9wZGZ0aW1lb3V0Lmh0bWwraHR0cDovL3d3dy5hc3BlY3RodW50bGV5LmNvbS5hdS9pbWFnZXNpZ25hbC9lcnJvcnBhZ2VzL3BkZmRlbGF5ZWQuanNw
> 
> 
> 
> View attachment 125547





Stockybailz said:


> Paladin Energy Limited develops and operates uranium mines in Australia, Canada, and Africa. The company operates through Exploration, Namibia, Malawi, and Australia segments. Its flagship project is the Langer Heinrich mine located in the Namib Desert in Namibia. The company was formerly known as Paladin Resources Ltd and changed its name to Paladin Energy Limited in November 2007. The company was incorporated in 1993 and is based in Perth, Australia.
> 
> 
> http://www.aspecthuntley.com.au/docserver/02381228.pdf?fileid=02381228&datedir=20210603&edt=MjAyMS0wNi0wNCsxNzoyMDozMSs0ODArMTM2MzQ0MCthbmRyZXd3ZXN0K3JlZGlyZWN0K2h0dHA6Ly93d3cuYXNwZWN0aHVudGxleS5jb20uYXUvaW1hZ2VzaWduYWwvZXJyb3JwYWdlcy9wZGZ0aW1lb3V0Lmh0bWwraHR0cDovL3d3dy5hc3BlY3RodW50bGV5LmNvbS5hdS9pbWFnZXNpZ25hbC9lcnJvcnBhZ2VzL3BkZmRlbGF5ZWQuanNw
> 
> 
> 
> View attachment 125547



It certainly has a nice foundation to launch this month and in fact for the coming quarter as uranium plays are in favour


----------



## Stockbailx

TechnoCap said:


> It certainly has a nice foundation to launch this month and in fact for the coming quarter as uranium plays are in favour



Working up to a Cruise',Solid...Nice Upgrade to the Best Market (OTCOX) from the pink sheets of the US Market..Trading on the OTCQX allows for greater access to retail and small institutional investors. With investors being able to trade and settle in U.S.hours and U.S. dollars, allowing for greater visibility and accessibility .
Extra colladial and leverage'''..Bonea'


----------



## Boggo

There's a few in that sector behaving in similiar fashion at the moment.
@Trav. was onto it on the daily here Trav's post

Similiar on the weekly back then.

(click to expand)


----------



## Stockbailx

Sit down have a cupper  with trav...The OTCQX is the top market tier operated by OTC Market Group, Inc.in New York, on whichover 11,000 U.S.  and  global  securities  trade.  Upgrading  to  the  OTCQX  Market  is  an  important  step  for  companies seeking  to  provide  transparent  trading  for  their  U.S. investors.    For  companies  listed  on  a  qualified international  exchange,  streamlined  market  standards  enable  them  to  utilise  their  home  market reporting to make  their information available in the U.S. To qualify for OTCQX, companies must meet high financial standards, follow best practice corporate governance and demonstrate compliance with applicable sucurities law....That sounds like good news to me,


----------



## Stockbailx

Expect the company  to march up on top of its trade, ahead of the weeks gains;


----------



## Stockbailx

*Less than a Marketable Parcel Sale Facility*

Paladin Energy Ltd (ASX: PDN OTCQX: PALAF) announces that it has established a share sale facility for small shareholders who hold a parcel of fully paid ordinary shares in the Company that trade on the Australian Securities Exchange with a market value of less than A$500 as at 7:00pm Australian Eastern Standard Time (AEST) on Friday 18 June 2021 (Record Date).



			https://wcsecure.weblink.com.au/pdf/PDN/02386340.pdf


----------



## Sean K

Was anyone else around when PDN went from 5c to $10? 

Obviously a different story now. All the uranium juniors are running on the back of the SPUT speculation on the POU going forward. Most thought they'd all run too hard last year but did consolidate pretty well. Looks like FOMO now, with support way back behind this run.


----------



## Sean K

PDN will probably be competing with BOE and LOT to be the first back into new production. Costs and timeframes about the same, between $80-100m and 12-18mths. 

Recent news of Japan restarting reactors, Britain realising they might need more, energy shortfalls, and China going all-in is going to be very good for our uranium players longer term.


----------



## Sean K

PDN have a stated goal of assessing global opportunities, read bolt on acquisitions. I'd guess they'd be after a near term producer/developer with some exploration upside as opposed to explorer defining resources. On the ASX that could mean BOE, PEN or LOT who fit that bill, but LOTs assets were previously PDNs.... so BOE or PEN maybe. PEN gives it more diversity with ops in the US.


----------



## peter2

Another commodity selection for the 2022 comp. 

*PDN* has plans to resume production of uranium once the price goes a little higher. If we really want zero emissions and keep the lights on we have to embrace nuclear power. 






Disc: Been in and out so many times I've almost got enough for a mini nuclear reactor for the backyard.


----------



## Sean K

peter2 said:


> Another commodity selection for the 2022 comp.
> 
> *PDN* has plans to resume production of uranium once the price goes a little higher. If we really want zero emissions and keep the lights on we have to embrace nuclear power.
> 
> View attachment 134583
> 
> 
> Disc: Been in and out so many times I've almost got enough for a mini nuclear reactor for the backyard.




I was tossing up which uranium play to put in the comp, because I think they’ll all double, but I was thinking more about a junior (above 10c  ) that would go up relatively more with fluffy speculation. This is a safer pick though.


----------



## sptrawler

One of my 2022 stock comp picks, with China committing to several nuclear power stations and the current tension between Europe and Russia leading to sky high energy prices, nuclear generation has to be considered for mitigating the problem IMO, this should drive PDN price.


----------



## The Cruising Investor

Uranium should rocket to the moon in 2022 with the New Green Deal and everyone concerned about CO2 emissions. This is my pick for the stock comp, was looking for a low cost entry into the sector with a producer (soon) rather than explorer, and this is it.


----------



## Miner

Uranium market slumped like King to Pauper story.
PDN shares slumped.  (DELETED VMY REFERENCE ) 
Even PDN directors are selling out massively in double.
The sell price was 84.1 cents by the directors and today PDN is quoted at 77 cents.
Where is the leadership to stop trading than going through the drain.









DNH



			https://www.asx.com.au/asxpdf/20220307/pdf/456rzfg687g3fx.pdf


----------



## Sean K

Miner said:


> VMY deferred the CR.




I haven't seen that advertised Miner?


----------



## Miner

Sean K said:


> I haven't seen that advertised Miner?



Thanks, Sean. It was my error on recollection. Updated my posting deleting the reference of VMY.
I thought to have read it somewhere but rechecking AFR, my recollection was incorrect.
The silver line of the posting was you read my posting and straight into bat by judging the ball and leaving it to the wicketkeeper without touching it. Good call 









						Uranium explorer Vimy Resources raising $20m
					

Listed uranium explorer Vimy Resources was pitching investors for a $20 million on Friday.




					www.afr.com


----------



## Sean K

Miner said:


> Thanks, Sean. It was my error on recollection. Updated my posting deleting the reference of VMY.
> I thought to have read it somewhere but rechecking AFR, my recollection was incorrect.
> The silver line of the posting was you read my posting and straight into bat by judging the ball and leaving it to the wicketkeeper without touching it. Good call
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> Uranium explorer Vimy Resources raising $20m
> 
> 
> Listed uranium explorer Vimy Resources was pitching investors for a $20 million on Friday.
> 
> 
> 
> 
> www.afr.com




No probs, I'm only holding VMY because I think DYL is going to buy it and expect a bit of a premium. But, I have DYL as well, so maybe I don't know what the hell I'm doing. VMY do have a very good resource though and I expect Mulga Rock to be mined during this U cycle.


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## Sean K

Miner said:


> Thanks, Sean. It was my error on recollection. Updated my posting deleting the reference of VMY.
> I thought to have read it somewhere but rechecking AFR, my recollection was incorrect.
> The silver line of the posting was you read my posting and straight into bat by judging the ball and leaving it to the wicketkeeper without touching it. Good call
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> Uranium explorer Vimy Resources raising $20m
> 
> 
> Listed uranium explorer Vimy Resources was pitching investors for a $20 million on Friday.
> 
> 
> 
> 
> www.afr.com




Crikey! You must have a crystal ball. 

From the AFR: Street Talk
Brokers try to recut uranium play Vimy’s raise​*Anthony Macdonald, Sarah Thompson* and *Kanika Sood*
Mar 7, 2022 – 5.51pm

Morgans and Euroz Hartleys were trying to recut listed uranium explorer Vimy Resources’ mooted equity raising on Monday afternoon, after pulling the brakes on Friday as Russian troops shot at a Ukrainian nuclear power plant.

Fund managers said talks were around raising at 17¢ a share, down from the original offer’s 19¢ a share.

The terms were yet to be finalised but they said Vimy may have shrink its $20 million raise down to $15 million.

Vimy’s raise was put on ice on Friday afternoon as the Russian attack sent ASX-listed uranium stocks tumbling.

Paladin Energy ended Friday’s trading down 14.5 per cent, Deep Yellow was down 17 per cent, Boss Energy lost 15.9 per cent and 92Energy was down 8.7 per cent.


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## Miner

Sean K said:


> Crikey! You must have a crystal ball.
> 
> From the AFR: Street Talk
> Brokers try to recut uranium play Vimy’s raise​*Anthony Macdonald, Sarah Thompson* and *Kanika Sood*
> Mar 7, 2022 – 5.51pm
> 
> Morgans and Euroz Hartleys were trying to recut listed uranium explorer Vimy Resources’ mooted equity raising on Monday afternoon, after pulling the brakes on Friday as Russian troops shot at a Ukrainian nuclear power plant.
> 
> Fund managers said talks were around raising at 17¢ a share, down from the original offer’s 19¢ a share.
> 
> The terms were yet to be finalised but they said Vimy may have shrink its $20 million raise down to $15 million.
> 
> Vimy’s raise was put on ice on Friday afternoon as the Russian attack sent ASX-listed uranium stocks tumbling.
> 
> Paladin Energy ended Friday’s trading down 14.5 per cent, Deep Yellow was down 17 per cent, Boss Energy lost 15.9 per cent and 92Energy was down 8.7 per cent.



Trust my dyslexia which works some times on opposite direction.
I remember to have read on AFR but lost confidence.
Now Happy Happy 😊 😃


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## Ann

Again bouncing off 200dmas and volume spikes. Not sure about the stop loss level, may need to review it if it is needed.

So much for me not ever touching uranium miners! I can resist anything except temptation (thanks to Wilde).


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## Sean K

$200m seems a lot for a restart. Must have a lot of new washers and seals to replace. 

It's all happening in the uranium space with raisings, re-starts and M&A triggered by the increase in POU.


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## Chief Wigam

If anyone has been Uranium Market minute on youtube, you'll know they have released their newsletter a couple of days ago stating we have reached an inflection point with Uranium stocks. We've had a period of relative underperformance over the past coupe of months and now they look like they are break outing finally. Mostly the producers are breaking out with some explorers also but other explorers about to do so.


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## Miner

Chief Wigam said:


> If anyone has been Uranium Market minute on youtube, you'll know they have released their newsletter a couple of days ago stating we have reached an inflection point with Uranium stocks. We've had a period of relative underperformance over the past coupe of months and now they look like they are break outing finally. Mostly the producers are breaking out with some explorers also but other explorers about to do so.



Almost all uranium producers and explorers are retesting north peak points.


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## Sean K

Miner said:


> Almost all uranium producers and explorers are retesting north peak points.




Surprised they're off a bit today. I thought the confirmation of the break up would have given them a 🚀


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## sptrawler

Miner said:


> Uranium market slumped like King to Pauper story.
> PDN shares slumped.  (DELETED VMY REFERENCE )
> Even PDN directors are selling out massively in double.
> The sell price was 84.1 cents by the directors and today PDN is quoted at 77 cents.
> Where is the leadership to stop trading than going through the drain.



At least we now know why the directors were selling at 84c, as @Sean K  posted a good old capital raising at 72c, nothing like making an easy win.  




Sean K said:


> $200m seems a lot for a restart. Must have a lot of new washers and seals to replace.
> 
> It's all happening in the uranium space with raisings, re-starts and M&A triggered by the increase in POU.
> 
> 
> View attachment 139732


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## sptrawler

Massive scale back on the SPP, $15m to be raised $105m applied for, it is so much easier just buying on market.  



			https://cdn-api.markitdigital.com/apiman-gateway/ASX/asx-research/1.0/file/2924-02517319-6A1090077?access_token=83ff96335c2d45a094df02a206a39ff4


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## Sean K

I thought they had already announced this?


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## bluekelah

Uranium fever is about to come this winter as Europe gets hungry for everything from Natural gas to uranium. Good times for uranium and NG on the way.


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## peter2

The uranium sector didn't get much love in 2022. There were a few small rallies as SPROTT tried to rally the market. Today's bullishness in the commodity sector tempted me to buy some . There was no compelling chart pattern. Call it a hunch, perhaps even a gamble. I've a tight stop loss in case I'm wrong. The chart indicates that there's a good zone to consider buying at 0.50 - 0.60. That's a bit lower than today's close (0.68).


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## Miner

peter2 said:


> The uranium sector didn't get much love in 2022. There were a few small rallies as SPROTT tried to rally the market. Today's bullishness in the commodity sector tempted me to buy some . There was no compelling chart pattern. Call it a hunch, perhaps even a gamble. I've a tight stop loss in case I'm wrong. The chart indicates that there's a good zone to consider buying at 0.50 - 0.60. That's a bit lower than today's close (0.68).
> 
> View attachment 151324



Hi Pete @peter2 - did I read correctly that a super expert like you even work on hunch when chart says otherwise ? I know nothing on chart but curious to know if your hunch is driven by a nuke attack on Ukraine by Russia, instability on US politics on the election of Speaker and a nuke attack on Japan by North Korea ? Charts only work on past data.
BTW in one of the big resource companies uranium project we  modelled the engineering and process in accordance with LH plant. It was then considered one of the best plants . It was 2007 . Unfortunately the backwards  WA Gov mentality  and public's ill-informed assumptions  on uranium have remained unchanged since 2007. So returning to PDN, it is technically a sound operation..
DNH PDN.


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