# Day traders ONLY - a continuing study



## tech/a (17 December 2006)

*"Stock Patterns for Day Trading" (Intraday Trend trades, scalps and swing Trades) by Barry Rudd is a good read. Traders Press publishers.*

Is the only book I know of any substance on the topic.

I've been primarily a longterm mechanical trader and like most of my ilk thought day traders to be the gamblers of the trading fraternity.

*Most are!!*

However there are *some* who make *OBSCENE* amounts of money from trading intraday and or very short term (a few days).

For the last 6 mths I have been taking this form of trading more seriously and have been embarressed at times sitting in my office while my staff very capably run my company while I have made a month of their salary in a few hrs----at times minutes. 

I still think that the information available for day traders and the use of software now available to all traders is sadly lacking.
Its my intention to embark on the journey with those who wish to persue this form of trading to find,collate,investigate and apply methodologies which *WORK*.

The first step is to open this thread.
The second is to continue my research and trading in this form.
The third is to work with those who make the software that we use (One has so far shown great interest in my suggestion of some inclusions).
The fourth is to encourage those who take this form of trading seriously to add to this thread with *SPECIFIC* hints and if possible in realtime so we can watch its application.
The Fifth over time would be to perhaps publish a paper on that which we find.

There maybe those who have specific hints or methodologies they dont wish to make public but would be happy to share with me in the compilation of a complete and on going works. If this is you please private mail me,I will honor confidentiality.


----------



## wayneL (17 December 2006)

*Re: Day traders ONLY--- a continuing study.*

Hi tech,

There are quite a few bloggers who are good day traders, I will post up some of these guys stuff as I get some time.

Although there is none better than the blog by Maoxian.

Here is an archive of his published trades. http://www.maoxian.com/archivecat.html#QA

Enjoy


----------



## barney (17 December 2006)

*Re: Day traders ONLY--- a continuing study.*



			
				tech/a said:
			
		

> *"Stock Patterns for Day Trading" (Intraday Trend trades, scalps and swing Trades) by Barry Rudd is a good read. Traders Press publishers.*
> 
> Is the only book I know of any substance on the topic.
> 
> ...




Howdy Tech ..... I'm happy to relieve you of some of those profits if it becomes too embarrassing   
Seriously, where is the book available .... I had a quick look on a few online bookstores and no success ..... Thanks, barney.

PS I am more interested in this book from the point of view of how I lost my money, rather than trying to day trade, which is totally out of my league. (always good to find out how the "opposition" operates


----------



## wayneL (17 December 2006)

*Re: Day traders ONLY--- a continuing study.*

I have deleted some posts here.

Let's keep it all nice and friendly and helpful in the spirit of the original post  

Cheers


----------



## wayneL (17 December 2006)

*Re: Day traders ONLY--- a continuing study.*

TraderMike's thoughts on daytrading http://tradermike.net/2005/08/thoughts_on_day_trading


----------



## wayneL (17 December 2006)

*Re: Day traders ONLY--- a continuing study.*

Last one, from the Trader Formerly Known As Ugly: 

http://www.uglychart.com/category/a-dummy-a-day/

That should get the thought processes going


----------



## barney (17 December 2006)

*Re: Day traders ONLY--- a continuing study.*



			
				wayneL said:
			
		

> I have deleted some posts here.
> 
> Let's keep it all nice and friendly and helpful in the spirit of the original post
> 
> Cheers




Just read the PM b4 I was about to post a reply ...Thanks Wayne ........... My 2 bobs worth ................ Guys .......... life is too short for petty animosity ......... Priorities ........... Family, Friends, etc. ,,,,,,,,,,, Money /Ego's/ etc. will amount to nothing when they put us in a box 6 feet under ............. Lets try and keep a perspective of what is really important here ... regardless of our personal "discontents" with others etc.    ... I personally value any one elses opinion, whether or not I agree with it ........ you can learn something from anyone/everyone ............. this post may appear overly "deep" since prior posts have been removed, but this is my opinion .....

PS Yogi .......... I'm not sure what the motivation was for the comment/s, but I respect your position to say your peace etc.

Tech, Keep the info coming ........... You have no need to share it with us "learners", but you do anyway..... that is  admirable !  

I would recommend a group hug , but somehow I don't think thats going to happen ..................             I may be a "learner" trader, but I think I might be well ahead of some around here on the "live and let live" concept ......... I'm going to finish my "spuds and beans" now .... All the best (to everyone), Barney.


----------



## yogi-in-oz (17 December 2006)

*Re: Day traders ONLY--- a continuing study.*



Whoa, whoa, whoa ... just because this guy promotes
himself as a trading expert ..... it isn't necessarily so !~!

He has already admitted to daytrading for only 6 months
..... so, how does that make him an expert daytrader ???

Just because somebody takes this egotist to task, is no
reason to delete the posts ..... somebody has to pose the
hard questions ..... yes??? 

Otherwise, this just becomes the "mouthy duck show" !~!

If any moderation is needed here, it is on HIS mouth, as
it can lead to many newbies on this forum being led to
slaughter ... !~!

Be warned, tech/a is NOT the trading guru,
that he paints himself to be .....

..... if he is such an expert, why doesn't he enter the 
tipping contests to show his form over a week, a month
or even a year ???

As for daytrading, let's invite him to post some intraday
turns on ANY stock accurately, in advance ... it just will not
happen, because he is a fraud.

 happy trading

   yogi


----------



## wayneL (17 December 2006)

*Re: Day traders ONLY--- a continuing study.*



			
				yogi-in-oz said:
			
		

> Whoa, whoa, whoa ... just because this guy promotes
> himself as a trading expert ..... it isn't necessarily so !~!
> 
> He has already admitted to daytrading for only 6 months
> ...




Yogi, 

I have read Techs post several times and I don't see anywhere where he professes to be an expert. The post is about going on a journey of discovery, learning and sharing techniques, viz:



			
				Tech/A said:
			
		

> Its my intention to embark on the journey with those who wish to persue this form of trading to find,collate,investigate and apply methodologies which WORK.




As far as the comment about a months salary in a few minutes, this is the reality of daytrading, it can and does happen. With all the money management, risk and trade management that applies to any good trader, losses are kept smaller than these big wins... same as any trading.

The thing with day trading is that one can put on a much larger position size than normal and sans overnight risk, still be within normal risk parameters. Hence the occasional kicking of a huge goal.

So please, enough with the vendetta, and I won't hesitate to delete further posts unless on topic.

Thanks


----------



## coyotte (17 December 2006)

*Re: Day traders ONLY--- a continuing study.*

Barney :

The link your after --- also @ Amazon for around $us65

http://www.traderspress.org/detail.asp?product_id=1208





Cheers


----------



## barney (17 December 2006)

*Re: Day traders ONLY--- a continuing study.*



			
				yogi-in-oz said:
			
		

> Whoa, whoa, whoa ... just because this guy promotes
> himself as a trading expert ..... it isn't necessarily so !~!
> 
> He has already admitted to daytrading for only 6 months
> ...





Hey Yoge,   I've been to your site and thought it was great ....... But I don't understand this animosity towards Tech (regardless of whether you think he is a good trader or not)  .......... ( I actually thought you guys were friends pulling each others chain!!)     I think Tech has put his "stock picks" out in public enough to deserve some respect ............ as for predicting intraday turns re day trading , that is unreasonable (Isn't that what sound money management is supposed to cope with ..... If it goes sour, you are out??)  I'm not trying to take sides here, so please don't take this as a pro-Tech post (as Tech has said previously ... He is big enough and ugly enough to fight his own battles ...... I haven't seen a pic of him, but I believe him; if he says he is ugly then he is ugly   ....... Any way my point is ......... Both you guys have respect around here, so no need for agro? ....... I'm just not getting it ......... PS I am a relative newbie, and I have no intention of following Tech's "day -Trading " examples ......... because I know I'm not ready to do that, but, I like to hear what he has to say cause I can learn  from it, as I can from what you and countless others say around here .............. Anyway, you (and Tech) have my best wishes, and I hope you will both continue to "educate" us pupils ........... but would really like to see less anger and more constructive criticism, if warranted.    Sincerely, Barney.

PS Thanks, Coyotte.    Good to see you back (Meditation stuff is interesting) Also thanks S/B.


----------



## swingstar (17 December 2006)

*Re: Day traders ONLY--- a continuing study.*

I was also going to post MaoXian and Trader Mike links. Been following their blogs for a while.


----------



## constable (17 December 2006)

*Re: Day traders ONLY--- a continuing study.*

"When everyone agrees, no one is thinking"
While there is a need for constructive criticism, surely we can act a little more professional! ( in relation to the last few posts)
Anyrate as im still wet behind the ears as far as trading goes I think this thread is a great idea.  And although i doubt I will have much if anything constructive to add, I appreciate the willingness of others to share their experiences and practises. 
I would just like to add that I am getting a little tired of the personal attacks and unhealthy scepticism on these types of threads and feel that at the end of the day these attacks are more of a hinderance to those who are serious about advancing themselves and moreover do nothing for the credibility of asf or its members.


----------



## It's Snake Pliskin (17 December 2006)

*Re: Day traders ONLY--- a continuing study.*



			
				yogi-in-oz said:
			
		

> Whoa, whoa, whoa ... just because this guy promotes
> himself as a trading expert ..... it isn't necessarily so !~!
> 
> He has already admitted to daytrading for only 6 months
> ...





Hello Yogi,

I haven't read anywhere where Tech says he is an expert. No one has said he is an expert. 

Everybody else,
There is nothing wrong with egos. Enjoy them people, we were given them when born. Subsequent life rules try to tame them though. 
Tech good as usual, if you want to enjoy your ego then I support you 100%. 

It's Snake! 


> Stock Patterns for Day Trading" (Intraday Trend trades, scalps and swing Trades) by Barry Rudd is a good read. Traders Press publishers.



Ps: Tech is that the first book or second one? There are two books.


----------



## coyotte (17 December 2006)

*Re: Day traders ONLY--- a continuing study*

Just some readers reviews on the link below:

http://www.amazon.com/gp/product/cu.../105-5791129-0962064?ie=UTF8&n=283155&s=books

Seems some comments about book 2 are even worse than book 1.



Cheers


----------



## ducati916 (18 December 2006)

*tech/a*

Some [obvious] daytrading requirements;

*Technical Requirements
*ability to go long or short
*high liquidity
*price movement
*patterns [entry points] that provide reasonable stoploss points.
*scans [intra-day] that pick up the previously mentioned.

*Personal Requirements
*ability to log screen time [6.5hrs day]
*cash reserve [living expenses]
*ability to earn living while necessary by an alternate means.
*bulletproof psychology

*Daytrading problems.
*the inability [psychologically] to do size.
*the inability [financially] to do size


An example of scanners, I have used Tony Oz' scanners when daytrading and I would add my recommendation alongside this one;

http://www.elitetrader.com/so/?action=view&SR_ProductID=20
http://www.tonyoz.com/

An example of a US based daytrading stock; BIDU

jog on
d998


----------



## ducati916 (18 December 2006)

*tech/a*

Unlike other forms of trading, ENTRIES are vital. If you are poor at entries, you will be a poor daytrader. Therefore, entry tools [intra-day] are especially useful, nay, vital. Three of the best are as follows.

*direct access platforms [live data]
*$Tick
*TRIN
*$Flow

The above all have strengths and weaknesses that would need due consideration, especially if trading individual stocks as opposed to index futures or the cash market.

jog on
d998


----------



## ducati916 (18 December 2006)

To the above lists we could add;

*analysis in a longer time frame for example 180mins chart, entries on a 15mins chart [will provide greater intra-day trends]

The analysis is really composed of areas of congestion [support/resistance]
*pivot points
*ema's
*horizontal trend lines
*angled trend lines
*fibonacci 
*short term MACD's

Using our previous example of BIDU;


----------



## ducati916 (18 December 2006)

And taking the last day, breaking it down to intra-day;


----------



## ducati916 (18 December 2006)

*tech/a* 



> _*The fourth is to encourage those who take this form of trading seriously to add to this thread with SPECIFIC hints and if possible in realtime so we can watch its application.
> 
> *The Fifth over time would be to perhaps publish a paper on that which we find._




Re. point #4
Goodluck in finding someone who'll daytrade in public consistently, if you get zero volunteers, I may demonstrate some, but you'll have to give the guidelines for format, especially if you are looking to publish.

Re. point #5
I'm always interested in research & publishing.

jog on
d998


----------



## coyotte (18 December 2006)

Guppy's : "Snapshot Trading" is a good readily available look at S/T in Ozz   for around $au35 :

Some of my approaches include:

1: Opening a Position around 3.50 Friday for a Monday Closing near the Open
    Most "Day Traded" Stocks are sold off on the Friday Close:

2: Limiting the Holding period to 1-5 days max
    If the SP does not move within this period, it probably won't.

3: Opening a Position between 10.30- 11.30 and Closing 12.00 to 1.00.
    The Opening Frenzy is over and if the SP is going to move you'll generally
     end up with over keen Buys/Sellers during the Lunch Break.

4:  Trading Shares with Dual US/AU listing 
     The SP will generally gravitate to the US price during the day.

5:  Lock in profits quickly --- with CFDs you can just keep hoping in and out
     for around $1 per $1000 per side.


Nothing high tech here. 



Cheers


----------



## ducati916 (18 December 2006)

*Coyotte*



> _4: Trading Shares with Dual US/AU listing
> The SP will generally gravitate to the US price during the day._




Based on arbitrage, this is most certainly true, +/- currency rates.

jog on
d998


----------



## tech/a (18 December 2006)

Good morning.
I see yogi has elevated me to guru status in his own mind once more.

I expect we shall not see any of Yogi's day trading expertise shared with the general community,sadly settling for competitions.

Yogi feel free to demonstrate and discuss picking "turns" in a trade. I cant do that with any tradable consistency and dont trade that way, I'm a buy high----sell higher trader.

*Duc*
Thanks for some discussion. 

I agree with most of your points.
Particularly entry.

Just to set the record straight.

It appears that most here trade at least short term.
Discussion and some trading using ideas which have been adopted by others is the idea with this thread,in the hope that we may learn more about the fascinating opportunities presented with short term trading.

Whether you profit or lose in exercises like this there is always something to learn from them.

In my own short term trading I keep a diary.
Last month.
20 trades 11 wins 9 losses.
R/Ratio 4.3:1

So while I'm happy to stick my neck out you'll see both winning and losing trades.
A lot of the ideas I have been trading are similar to Rudds.
The book I have is by the look of it his first. Personally I loved the number of charts,I think visual is much easier to pick up.
I also have Joe Ross's works but like Rudd has been 5 yrs or so since I have read them.

As I dont wish people to get the idea I'm recommending buys or sells the charts I post *will not have a code attached * until after the trade has been completed.I will post both EOD and Tick/minute charts *for discussion*.

The whole purpose is to *LEARN* all of us nothing more---I welcome as does all in the community I'm sure all who contribute in a constructive manner.

Hopefully others will join in and be encouraged to do the same.
Presenting different methodologies from which we can all learn something.


----------



## tech/a (18 December 2006)

The first 2 I thought we could look at are based upon Rudds ideas of trading out of consolidation and above resistance areas.

Chart 1 is the daily chart of the subject stock.
Chart 2 is the tick chart.
Chart 3 is the tick chart of the second stock example.
These are all pre open of todays trading.
Trades would be taken at a breakout.
Rudd suggests waiting for the first 10 mins of trading to see how it settles from open. So does Joe Ross from what I can remember.
Looking at a chart 30 mins into trading will give us an idea of how his ideas pan out.
I also like to have a close look at volume.
You can clearly see the Volume explosion on Chart A.
And good support in Chart B
Charts with Bars are Daily.
Line are tick charts (every trade).


----------



## dhukka (18 December 2006)

tech/a said:
			
		

> For the last 6 mths I have been taking this form of trading more seriously and have been embarressed at times sitting in my office while my staff very capably run my company while I have made a month of their salary in a few hrs----at times minutes.




I think it's comments like these that people like yogi-in-oz and myself find annoying. It is unsubstantiated and misleading. It's exactly the same as the guy (and we've all known one) who tells you how much he wins at the casino/racetrack/ but not how much he looses. I didn't see anywhere that tech/a has said he was an expert but he is implying through the above paragraph that he regularly makes significant significant sums of money quite easily via trading intra-day. Maybe yogi-in-oz was a out of line but tech/a's comments DO deserve a healthy dose of scepticism. If tech/a's claims are true then all the power to him but without any substantiation they are just noise.


----------



## yogi-in-oz (18 December 2006)

tech/a said:
			
		

> Good morning.
> 
> As I dont wish people to get the idea I'm recommending buys or sells the charts I post *will not have a code attached * until after the trade has been completed.I will post both EOD and Tick/minute charts *for discussion*.
> 
> .





...... so what good is a chart, without an identity for 
fundamentalists or discretionary traders, who barely 
look at a chart ..... so, if you are for real, start everybody
off with the SAME information and indentify the stocks 
from the outset, otherwise you are setting yourself up, 
with an unfair advantage ..... yes???

Again, ego is taking over and the mouthy duck 
sets himself up as instructor, where he really
only has 6 months of experience by his own
admission !~!

happy days

  yogi


----------



## tech/a (18 December 2006)

I give up.

You win.

Have a great xmas everyone.


----------



## yogi-in-oz (18 December 2006)

So, just like trading folks, history repeats itself .....

.....  only here we see somebody disagreeing with the
self-annointed guru on this forum and then, he throws 
a wobbly to get some sympathy and the spotlight
is thrown on him and whether he should stay in the 
capacity of forum guru or does he leave.

Just go tech, without all the fanfare this time,
that your ego just laps up, like mother's milk.

happy days

  yogi


----------



## constable (18 December 2006)

This is a shame i was hoping there was going to be some really meaningful substance to this thread. The last 5 posts including mine have got no use whatsoever in relation to trading.


----------



## Julia (18 December 2006)

tech/a said:
			
		

> I give up.
> 
> You win.
> 
> Have a great xmas everyone.



Tech,

I'm not interested in taking sides here, but don't know why you can't just ignore any comments you don't care for.

Perhaps the idea would have been better without your comment (which wasn't made for the first time) about making obscene amounts of money and many times more than your employees earn?  Although to you this is obviously just stating a fact, it could come across as somewhat insensitive.

I'm getting a sense of deja vu here re a past similar personality clash.

It sounds like a worthwhile idea for those interested in this type of trading - pity to see it sabotaged by egos.  Snake's comment was spot on.

Julia


----------



## coyotte (18 December 2006)

All may not be  what it appears to be in the book tech/a is referring to -- read the readers reviews


From Method 4 from what I was refering to earlier , and U can also check this out in the GOLD thread --- was in LHG near the Open (long) and just Closed

God 20 trades in 6 mths -- I'm doing at least that a week
in day trading U got to have $$$ TURNOVER 

KISS


Cheers


----------



## ducati916 (18 December 2006)

dhukka said:
			
		

> I think it's comments like these that people like yogi-in-oz and myself find annoying. It is unsubstantiated and misleading. It's exactly the same as the guy (and we've all known one) who tells you how much he wins at the casino/racetrack/ but not how much he looses. I didn't see anywhere that tech/a has said he was an expert but he is implying through the above paragraph that he regularly makes significant significant sums of money quite easily via trading intra-day. Maybe yogi-in-oz was a out of line but tech/a's comments DO deserve a healthy dose of scepticism. If tech/a's claims are true then all the power to him but without any substantiation they are just noise.




Irrespective of the personality issues, daytrading is the HARDEST form of trading that there is. Most WILL fail, that is the sad truth. The vast majority would do better to stay with, or move towards longer term strategies.

The few that can be profitable daytrading, tend to be psychologically a different breed. There are no particular secrets to successful daytrading, just taking enough trades so that in the 50/50 mix of results, by cutting the losses fast, the return on the winners exceeds the losses.

Simple to explain, difficult to execute, and increasingly difficult as position sizes increase. At my peak, I traded 40 Futures contracts, or +/- $400/tick, this was my psychological limit.....I couldn't progress past this level and in point of fact.......I couldn't maintain the intensity required, thus, I modified my style and moved away from daytrading altogether.

I personally would not recommend daytrading to anyone. Too hard!

jog on
d998


----------



## vert (18 December 2006)

well done yogi, you seem to be the one looking for the spot light. 
i read this forum as a source of information, whether it be yours or techs input i dont care i will decide for myself what i like and dont like. i have been following techs threads out of interest now you have stopped one that i am keen to learn more about because your ego seems to be in control tday. let the duck show his work and if you dont agree then let it be, im sure there are plenty of people who dont support your style, each to there own.

hopefully this thread can return back to the topic that was created in the first place.


----------



## blues (18 December 2006)

I totally agree with your comments Vert and I too was hoping to possibly learn something. Anything you learn on public forums like this needs to be verified by yourself to check its validity. Its like the saying "buyer beware'. If I wanted abuse I would go to HC.

Cheers.


----------



## noirua (18 December 2006)

I thought all the Day Traders died after the Dot-Com collapse. I remember the talk of making $50,000 a week. Some in the States committed suicide and a few went back and shot their work M8's.  Dangerous game!

The true Day Traders bought at the start of the days trading and sold by the close - sometimes computer crashes prevented this. Unfortunately many went all-in each day and when the slide came many held on and forgot the rules.


----------



## Kauri (18 December 2006)

I remember the same sort of septicism when Tech Trader was initially proposed and developed by a community effort. Since it was finalised it has traded *successfully and publically* according to set mechanical rules.
 Now we have a chance to work as a community on developing a daytrading method that may or may not result in a profitabe method, and back comes the septicism before it even gets off the ground. Septicism is fine, but try to make any criticism constructive and relative.


----------



## Bobby (18 December 2006)

tech/a said:
			
		

> I give up.
> 
> You win.




Tech there are many that wish you to continue with this topic.

Don't give up.

Bob.


----------



## ducati916 (18 December 2006)

For those interested still, and there would seem to be some, here are two examples of daytrading the US.

http://lightning.he.net/cgi-bin/suid/~reefcap/ultimatebb.cgi?ubb=get_topic;f=8;t=000294

http://lightning.he.net/cgi-bin/suid/~reefcap/ultimatebb.cgi?ubb=get_topic;f=8;t=000313

It has a little bit of everything, winning, losing, and early mornings!

jog on
d998


----------



## yogi-in-oz (18 December 2006)

ducati916 said:
			
		

> Irrespective of the personality issues, daytrading is the HARDEST form of trading that there is. Most WILL fail, that is the sad truth. The vast majority would do better to stay with, or move towards longer term strategies.
> 
> The few that can be profitable daytrading, tend to be psychologically a different breed. There are no particular secrets to successful daytrading, just taking enough trades so that in the 50/50 mix of results, by cutting the losses fast, the return on the winners exceeds the losses.
> 
> ...






..... now, that's possibly the best post in this thread, 
so far, duc !~!

Sure, we should explore and expand the boundaries
of our trading talents and capabilities, but we should
all be aware of the risks and higher stress, inherent in
the daytrading scene.

happy days

  yogi


----------



## Bronte (18 December 2006)

Julia said:
			
		

> Tech,
> I'm not interested in taking sides here, but don't know why you can't just ignore any comments you don't care for.
> Perhaps the idea would have been better without your comment (which wasn't made for the first time) about making obscene amounts of money and many times more than your employees earn?  Although to you this is obviously just stating a fact, it could come across as somewhat insensitive.
> I'm getting a sense of deja vu here re a past similar personality clash.
> ...



This is possibly just a little "Karma-phala"


----------



## coyotte (18 December 2006)

noirua said:
			
		

> I thought all the Day Traders died after the Dot-Com collapse. I remember the talk of making $50,000 a week. Some in the States committed suicide and a few went back and shot their work M8's.  Dangerous game!




Can be far less dangerous the Position Trading --- no overnight GAPS!

What was dangerous about the trade I just mentioned ?

US price was around $au $3.09

Price opened @ $3.03 ---Bought @ $3.04 -- Stop @ $ 3.00---  Sold @ $3.09


SP has continued up --- but the profit locked in -- just wait for another oppurtunity if it arises --- Also running RMD (SHORT) for <= $6.30



Cheers


----------



## ducati916 (18 December 2006)

*Yogi*

There is only really one way to learn daytrading, and that is to actually do it live. There is the *CHAT* facility and this is the area that could be best utilized for this kind of learning experience.

In essence, you would need 1 trader per day [can be a different trader/style each day] to be the facilitator of the days trading.

They then trade live, and others can follow, ask questions as the day progresses. Following day, someone else becomes the "trader".

What will become very apparent, very quickly, is no one form of analysis has any greater predictive power than another, but that trade DISCIPLINE is KING.

jog on
d998


----------



## ironchef (18 December 2006)

Yogi talks a lot, but says very little. Pregnant housewives are like that... Moan and groan about everything, always want to be the center of attention. 

Yogi, go take some tablets and have a lie down. This *isn't * the Oprah Winfry forums, theres no need to break your water everytime you see something you dont like. 

I'd still like to hear people's views and tips on day trading (minus the fodder that Yogi injects into this thread)


----------



## yogi-in-oz (18 December 2006)

Julia said:
			
		

> Tech,
> 
> I'm not interested in taking sides here, but don't know why you can't just ignore any comments you don't care for.
> 
> ...




Yes, EXACTLY Julia,

 ...... VERY, VERY insensitive comments and definitely
NOT the first time.

happy days

  yogi


----------



## yogi-in-oz (18 December 2006)

ducati916 said:
			
		

> *Yogi*
> 
> There is only really one way to learn daytrading, and that is to actually do it live. There is the *CHAT* facility and this is the area that could be best utilized for this kind of learning experience.
> 
> ...





Hi Duc,

Likewise, coming from a futures trading background here,
your comments are well received on this end.

There's no question about discipline and learning by
actual practice ..... and  that's a great idea, to share the
experiences of many traders day-by-day, as it allows
traders to draw on a much broader knowledge base !~!

happy days

  yogi



=====


----------



## chops_a_must (18 December 2006)

*Re: Day traders ONLY--- a continuing study.*



			
				yogi-in-oz said:
			
		

> Just because somebody takes this egotist to task, is no
> reason to delete the posts ..... somebody has to pose the
> hard questions ..... yes???



Says somebody who believes that astrology can be used to predict market moves?


----------



## Snakey (18 December 2006)

hi tech... great thread..... 
its a pitty there is wankers on here that make a lot of boo boo's

anyway i think self-discipline and patience are the key to day trading ....waiting for opportunity and taking advantage of opportunity....also grabbing a profit before it turns into a loss.

p.s. this thread is for day traders only .....investors please start own thread.
merry christmas to you too.. tech/a


----------



## ducati916 (18 December 2006)

*Re: Day traders ONLY--- a continuing study.*



			
				chops_a_must said:
			
		

> Says somebody who believes that astrology can be used to predict market moves?




The *style* of analysis on a daytrading timeframe is absolutely irrelevant to the outcome, as you will find all forms of analysis ultimately play out to 50/50

What will make you the money is trade discipline.

Why all the arguments about trading analysis?
Simple.
When you have to choose an entry point with $100K + on the line, you *NEED TO BELIEVE IN SOMETHING* it matters not if it's a pivot point, Jupiter crossing Mars, or a 180ema.........you gotta have the balls to place the trade, and if the trade goes against you, to close the mother fast.

Trade analysis simply gives you the areas where trade [psychological] discipline will be strongest in terms of belief, and delineates the highest *PROBABILITY OF THE TRADER ACTING * to his trading plan.

jog on
d998


----------



## yogi-in-oz (18 December 2006)

*Re: Day traders ONLY--- a continuing study.*



			
				chops_a_must said:
			
		

> Says somebody who believes that astrology can be used to predict market moves?




..... and proud of it because, if we put it to the test
in any time frame, even daytrading, it surfaces as
a very useful market timing tool.

Now, if you care to nominate ANY stock and give us your
intraday analysis, the astroanalysis will be posted in 
response .....

..... somehow, that challenge is rarely met, so will you 
be the first to respond with some detailed analysis, chops?

happy days

  yogi


----------



## chops_a_must (18 December 2006)

*Re: Day traders ONLY--- a continuing study.*



			
				ducati916 said:
			
		

> The *style* of analysis on a daytrading timeframe is absolutely irrelevant to the outcome, as you will find all forms of analysis ultimately play out to 50/50
> 
> What will make you the money is trade discipline.
> 
> ...



I agree with you. I'm just making the point that when Yogi posts on stock threads, about negative/ positive cycles etc. there is no explanation, just statement. Yet, that is exactly what Yogi is complaining of in this thread.


----------



## chops_a_must (18 December 2006)

*Re: Day traders ONLY--- a continuing study.*



			
				yogi-in-oz said:
			
		

> ..... and proud of it because, if we put it to the test
> in any time frame, even daytrading, it surfaces as
> a very useful market timing tool.
> 
> ...



No, because I'm not a day-trader. I just find your attacks somewhat hypocritical.


----------



## ducati916 (18 December 2006)

So all we need now are some daytraders willing to stand-up and daytrade in public, live, and lead a discussion on daytrading.......

Any interest in being the *trader*
How many interested in following *live*

jog on
d998


----------



## coyotte (18 December 2006)

ducati916 said:
			
		

> So all we need now are some daytraders willing to stand-up and daytrade in public, live, and lead a discussion on daytrading.......
> 
> Any interest in being the *trader*
> How many interested in following *live*
> ...




why bother?

just posted two and can't even get a comment


----------



## ducati916 (18 December 2006)

coyotte said:
			
		

> why bother?
> 
> just posted two and can't even get a comment




Well simply because that is not really trading live is it.
Trading live goes something like this;

At Monday's open @ [pre-market] 8.45am I will be trading BIDU and will pre-present my strategy based on my analysis.

Open................
Now I enter Long 1000 shares @ $117.11 stoploss @ $116.50
Market trades.....................
Stopped out for loss of $XX
or 
Market trades, sell at $120, profit $XX

While the market trades, questions can be fielded and newcomers to the insanity of daytrading will understand why a trade was taken & closed based on the analysis that was presented prior to market open.

Any takers?
jog on
d998


----------



## SevenFX (18 December 2006)

Hey Yogi,

I have read some of your posts and appreciated them, until now.

If you have a different point of view on the subject matter (Thread Title) why don't you respond with your technical or fundermental pov.

Attacking someone on this forum will only degrade the forum, and loose valuable members, not to mention other members that respect you.

IMO it is no 1 (one) members right to inhibit or restrict others from posting and sharing with the broader community.

The OP may be wrong, and you have a equal input to that, BUT not by discrediting them, or constantly disrupting thier threads with attacks, which I've seen this isn't the first one.

Yogi the sentiment towards your posts don't seen positive, and many seem to appreciate and respect the OP, so if your going to continue to disrupt or discredit ANY individuals.... I don't believe these posts will be welcomed.

SevenFX


----------



## It's Snake Pliskin (18 December 2006)

coyotte said:
			
		

> Can be far less dangerous the Position Trading --- no overnight GAPS!
> 
> What was dangerous about the trade I just mentioned ?
> 
> ...




Coyotte,

I agree with Duc.
It needs to be told in advance or at least have a trade time posted.
Bought xxxxx at 10:51am for example, preferably with a post not more than a few minutes later.

Regards
Snake

Yogi,

Maybe we all should collectively ignore you 

*Tech,*
Is there a restriction on the type of market being traded for this exercise?


----------



## coyotte (18 December 2006)

Sorry 
Just presumed everyone on this thread has a live feed
 it's 2.55  RMD  would say it about to move
tighteing BB


----------



## coyotte (18 December 2006)

Must trade different to others?

I sort of treat it as betting during the course of a horse race

I have a mid-price and long/short around that 

Hence the turnover 

Wouldn't have a clue what I'm going to do next until there is a price move.


Cheers


----------



## Julia (18 December 2006)

yogi-in-oz said:
			
		

> Yes, EXACTLY Julia,
> 
> ...... VERY, VERY insensitive comments and definitely
> NOT the first time.
> ...



Yogi

My suggestion about ignoring posts you don't like wasn't directed at Tech any more than at you.   

It's entirely possible to express your opposition to something without turning it into a vitriolic personal attack.

I'm unlikely to ever be a day trader, but do find reading about other members' experiences interesting and constructive.

Julia


----------



## coyotte (18 December 2006)

Post Times on this site are running 1 hour behind !

Cheers


----------



## skint (18 December 2006)

coyotte said:
			
		

> Post Times on this site are running 1 hour behind !
> 
> Cheers



Probably wasn't adjusted for daylight saving


----------



## Joe Blow (18 December 2006)

*Re: Day traders ONLY--- a continuing study.*



			
				yogi-in-oz said:
			
		

> Whoa, whoa, whoa ... just because this guy promotes
> himself as a trading expert ..... it isn't necessarily so !~!




I have not seen tech/a promote himself as an expert in anything. It seems to me that is something you are reading into his posting style.



			
				yogi-in-oz said:
			
		

> Just because somebody takes this egotist to task, is no
> reason to delete the posts ..... somebody has to pose the
> hard questions ..... yes???





			
				yogi-in-oz said:
			
		

> Otherwise, this just becomes the "mouthy duck show" !~!





			
				yogi-in-oz said:
			
		

> ...it just will not happen, because he is a fraud.




Enough with the personal insults. Yogi, most of us are all well aware of your personal vendetta against tech/a. You don't like him. Fair enough. That is your right but the personal attacks stop here. They serve no purpose other than to provoke and to divert threads from their original topic. If you wish to have it out with tech/a, take it to PM's and spare us.

If you wish to play the ball rather than the man, go right ahead. That's what ASF is here for. Everybody's views, approaches and methodologies are open for criticism and questioning. But I do not want to see threads that many see as valuable hijacked by personal vendettas. It's selfish, rude and unwelcome, not to mention unnecessary. It's schoolyard stuff and that's where it belongs, a schoolyard, not in a forum for adults.

Now, can we get this thread back on topic? I'm sure I'm not the only one who would like to see it continued.

If anyone wishes to respond to me with regards to this post, please send me a PM. There have been enough diversions in this thread already, lets get back to talking about day trading.


----------



## constable (18 December 2006)

Thank god for that, now what was this thread about i've forgotten?


----------



## Joe Blow (18 December 2006)

coyotte said:
			
		

> Post Times on this site are running 1 hour behind !




Everyone has their own 'ASF Clock' that they can set to their own timezone.

See this thread for more details: https://www.aussiestockforums.com/forums/showthread.php?t=5075


----------



## constable (18 December 2006)

constable said:
			
		

> Thank god for that, now what was this thread about i've forgotten?



Ahh timezones that right!


----------



## stoxclimber (18 December 2006)

Would be interesting provided there was no BS...i.e. posting of the trades ASAP and no selective posting of trades.


----------



## constable (18 December 2006)

Ok here's a trade ive taken today based on auz previous support at 8 cents.
Bought 200000 units at the close of 8.1 cents . Was prepared to pay 8.2.
Why did i buy ?
Because auz has started to stray outside its upwards trend.
So i figure it has to either pull back into line or continue going down.
8 cents has been a solid support so im of the belief it wont get thru it.

Also there are drill results due giving the stock some expectation.
Also i would think there should be some retracement as it was trading well into 9 cents just over a week ago.
My objective is to make 3 to 5 ticks on this stock and if it hits 8 cents with any speed im out. Time frame is  2 - 3 days.


----------



## bingk6 (18 December 2006)

*Re: Day traders ONLY--- a continuing study.*



			
				Joe Blow said:
			
		

> But I do not want to see threads that many see as valuable hijacked by personal vendettas.




Well said Joe, surely the interests of a vast number of forum members cannot be hijacked by one individual. I cannot believe that a promising thread such as this could end up like this. 

Yogi, whether Tech is a guru or otherwise is something that we can make up our own minds on....  

Tech, please continue with the discussion and I am sure that there are many others who share my view.  

Bingk6


----------



## finnsk (18 December 2006)

I was very happy when this thread was started I have been trying my look with a little day trading to see if this is for me so I am very disappointed with the start of this thread. So please get on with it, so people like me hopefully can get some value that we can use to learn and that way would be able to contribute in the future with some value in return.
regards finnsk


----------



## It's Snake Pliskin (18 December 2006)

coyotte said:
			
		

> Post Times on this site are running 1 hour behind !
> 
> Cheers




Coyotte,

I think the ASX time zone would suffice. The ASF time "zones" wouldn't for obvious reasons.
If one is trading the US, NZ, etc markets then those time zones would suffice.


----------



## coyotte (18 December 2006)

Hope no one takes this the wrong way -- because it is meant as part of the journey and not a reflection on anyone:

I have found that the EGO (for lack of a better word ) is the most dangerous thing you face as a Short Term Trader --- once you say either to yourself or publicly that a stock WILL do this ---- you sort of lock yourself in and come all the hell fires, you will blindly defend that opinion ---- better off to just take the view that it MAY do this but probably won't and just defend the position.


Cheers


----------



## barney (18 December 2006)

coyotte said:
			
		

> Hope no one takes this the wrong way -- because it is meant as part of the journey and not a reflection on anyone:
> 
> I have found that the EGO (for lack of a better word ) is the most dangerous thing you face as a Short Term Trader --- once you say either to yourself or publicly that a stock WILL do this ---- you sort of lock yourself in and come all the hell fires, you will blindly defend that opinion ---- better off to just take the view that it MAY do this but probably won't and just defend the position.
> 
> ...




Howdy Coyotte,   I agree.      A little ego makes a big man ..... A big ego makes  a little man ............ Ego is a luxury of living in an affluent society imo .......... how many of those poor @#$%% living in third world countries can "afford" ego's???   I personally put any ego I may have had to bed a long time ago, and am much better off because of it.....  (Its a bit like I tell my Kidz when they say they're bored ......... "Boredom is a luxury, Enjoy it")

Now ........... re the RMD trade C,    I am curious as to your  ideas behind this "short" cause I looked at it and could not see what you are obviously seeing ......   What is your st/loss ... Entry point etc. etc.  Thanks, Barney.


----------



## coyotte (18 December 2006)

Barney :
 Reason for initially selecting RGB as a watch :
RMD is suppose  to be in a E/W Wave 4 correction that may have been trunctated which would be a bullish sign (not my analysis).

RMD NY to me looks likes it's in W4 -- different topping pattern to ASX (as U know my E/W knowledge is kinddie stuff -- but after looking at Wavepicker's posts I've been trying to learn the basics)


I'm going off the current trend line $6.27

RMD NYSX closed around $au 6.25 Friday --- RMD usually gravitates to it's US SP.

Went Short around 10.30 today @ 6.38 with a STOP @ 6.48 (close on this one) --- The Target the trend line 6.27 -- if broken re-enter SHORT


Was looking for a sell down during 12.00-1.00 
This did not occur -- instead SP moved UP in the last 5 min of trade with fair vol.

The NY SP tonite will probably determine my Closing time of day for this position tomorrow.

Reason being -- Mondays are usually a good day to open a Short & Tues a good day to close. 



Cheers


----------



## nizar (18 December 2006)

Ok iv just read through this thread.
90% rubbish (personal insults) and 10% REAL quality.

Duc i find mysef agreeing with most of what you say regarding trading psychology. Short-term trading is the HARDEST form of stock trading there is, without a doubt. 

Coyotte, i can tell from your style you are one of the select few who do make REAL money from the markets:



			
				coyotte said:
			
		

> Some of my approaches include:
> 
> 1: Opening a Position around 3.50 Friday for a Monday Closing near the Open
> Most "Day Traded" Stocks are sold off on the Friday Close:
> ...




Thanks for sharing your approaches.

Re: #1: i agree, but i think it a stock has a strong run, "arvo run" as i like to call them, you could make a good entry with a tight stop giving you a high probability of a multiple R win. For example MLS, it had a good run towards the end on thursday, at 3:50pm or 3:55pm you could pick some up for 9.1 or 9.2. Two tick stop the next day 9.9c you sell and lock in a good trade. If a stock closes at or near the high, good chance of a gap up the next day. Low chance of your stop getting hit in the last 5 or 10mins.

Re: #2: probably you are right, though i havent quantified this for myself (yet).

Re: #3: sometimes 12:00-1pm is the dead low-volume period of the day. I found that *its very hard to know when is the perfect time for buying*. For example, i remember PEN opened one day dead 4.6c the last 4.5/4.6 the spread at 280k volume. No life in it. At around 1ish it took off reaching 5.2c high and then closing at 5.0c. Some stocks fire up on the open, but they gap up too much, or maybe another reason but after what becomes the eventual daily high is reached a few moments after the open, the sell-off begins. MLS a couple of weeks ago RAN ALL DAY. It opened at 5.2 (small gap up after the 5.0c close). At 10:30pm it had reached 6.5c. High was 7.0c. Eventual close 6.7c.

I gotta get my hands on some of those books mentioned.

Keep the great discussion coming guys. 

Yogi you seem an experienced trader, id like to hear some of your genuine thoughts about short-term trading, perhaps you can share some wisdom like coyotte, duc, and tech and others have done.


----------



## coyotte (19 December 2006)

Nizar :

No. 2  : I'm talking about Short Term here -- Scares the pants off me holding a position overnite --(gaps ) --- the relative position size compared  to Position or Target Trading has to be quite large , one of the reasons I try and stay in the top 200

A few  basic rules i've learned (short term )
1: trade CFDs  --- long/short -- instant trade-- IG $1 per $1000--- Live feed 

2: A separate bank to the main trading account and position sizes that U can cover in cash

3: Be very wary of SHORTS -- They can turn in flash during bull markets -- Always pull out just prior to a support level -- re-enter if breached 


4: Take Profits quickly -- you can always re-enter -- take losses even quicker
    but give the SP  a bit of leeway  



Cheers


----------



## nizar (19 December 2006)

Something i read in a review of Douglas' book (on amazon) that i thought would be worthy of a mention here.



> The 5 principles of thinking in probabilities
> 
> 1. Anything can happen
> 2. You don't have to know what is going to happen next in order to make money.
> ...


----------



## MichaelD (19 December 2006)

*Re: Day traders ONLY--- a continuing study.*



			
				yogi-in-oz said:
			
		

> ..... and proud of it because, if we put it to the test
> in any time frame, even daytrading, it surfaces as
> a very useful market timing tool.



Really?

At the risk of being accused of playing the man instead of the facts...

Picked at random, herewith your analysis of CAZ, posted on 4-Jan-2006
https://www.aussiestockforums.com/forums/showthread.php?t=2502



			
				yogi-in-oz said:
			
		

> CAZ ..... as requested on another forum, here's some
> astroanalysis for this stock, which shows some extreme
> negativity in the months ahead:
> 
> 16012006 ..... significant and negative news



No news, but price $1.50 to $1.30 over 4 days



			
				yogi-in-oz said:
			
		

> 23-24012006 ..... significant and negative move ???



Nope. Price $1.33 to $1.57 over 6 days



			
				yogi-in-oz said:
			
		

> 02022006 ..... significant news (positive ???)



Nope. Day 2 of a 10 day decline.



			
				yogi-in-oz said:
			
		

> 07022006 ..... spotlight on CAZ



Midway through a 10 day decline.



			
				yogi-in-oz said:
			
		

> 14-16022006 ..... minor and finance-related???



Results of AGM 17-2-2006. Commencement of a *strong * bull run from $1.24 to $2.04. Hardly minor.



			
				yogi-in-oz said:
			
		

> From 18022006-to-29032006 there may be VERY STRONG
> underlying negative sentiment for this company. During
> that period, we may see some key dates, on:



Nope. Strong bull run from $1.24 to $2.04 during this time.



			
				yogi-in-oz said:
			
		

> 20022006 ..... minor news???



Nope



			
				yogi-in-oz said:
			
		

> 09032006 ..... minor



Nope



			
				yogi-in-oz said:
			
		

> 15032006 ..... minor



1603 Half Year Accounts. Price continues BULL run.



			
				yogi-in-oz said:
			
		

> 24-27032006 ..... 2 positive cycles here ..... finance-related???



Nope. Start of bear run down from $1.82 to $1.50.



			
				yogi-in-oz said:
			
		

> That STRONG negative cycle should re-appear from
> 29092006-to-03102006, as well.



Nope. Big gap UP on 29-9.


By far the most significant move of CAZ during this time was on 24-4 with a massive gap down. No prediction of that in the above.

So, we have;

11 predictions
1 correct
9 incorrect
1 unclear

Could you explain again how this can be used as a "very useful market timing tool"?


----------



## barney (19 December 2006)

nizar said:
			
		

> Ok iv just read through this thread.
> 90% rubbish (personal insults) and 10% REAL quality.
> 
> Duc i find mysef agreeing with most of what you say regarding trading psychology. Short-term trading is the HARDEST form of stock trading there is, without a doubt.
> ...




 :iagree: 

Well said on all counts above Nizar,

Coyotte, Thanks for the run down on the trade. As Nizar elluded to .... You are one of the few who "puts your money where your mouth is" .... that certainly gets my respect as well .......

Interesting points above Michael ............. You have the ability to give any and all "a healthy dose" of humility when required (No disrespect intended to Yogi) 

Now, as others have said perhaps it would be good if the thread could be re-ignited with the original content ................ Enter stage left Tech ......


----------



## It's Snake Pliskin (19 December 2006)

*Re: Day traders ONLY--- a continuing study.*



			
				wayneL said:
			
		

> Yogi,
> 
> I have read Techs post several times and I don't see anywhere where he professes to be an expert. The post is about going on a journey of discovery, learning and sharing techniques, viz:
> 
> ...




Just moderating the francophone.
"without"


----------



## It's Snake Pliskin (19 December 2006)

> HARDEST form of trading that there is. Most WILL fail, that is the sad truth.



Maybe most make it harder than it could be.



> I personally would not recommend daytrading to anyone. Too hard!




I guess it depends on how MUCH one is happy with earning. If it is $100 per day then it will be a lot easier than if one is trying to get $10,000 per day - just to throw some perspective in.


----------



## It's Snake Pliskin (19 December 2006)

ducati916 said:
			
		

> *Yogi*
> 
> There is only really one way to learn daytrading, and that is to actually do it live. There is the *CHAT* facility and this is the area that could be best utilized for this kind of learning experience.
> 
> ...




I missed this post. Duc you do come up with some good posts at times.


----------



## ducati916 (19 December 2006)

It's Snake Pliskin said:
			
		

> Maybe most make it harder than it could be.
> 
> I guess it depends on how MUCH one is happy with earning. If it is $100 per day then it will be a lot easier than if one is trying to get $10,000 per day - just to throw some perspective in.




_'Most'_ will focus on the analysis [technical, gann, etc] whereas in daytrading, *money management* is king.

Assuming that your first nine trades are all losses, and you are down your $900........would you take trade ten? The answer is that you must, and 11,12, etc. But this is harder than it sounds, you will be pretty beat up psychologically by this stage, and self-belief will be a distant memory. Discipline is the way forward, but very few can actually execute.

 Daytrading is a numbers game, same as say a mechanical system, the market is fractal, therefore, if you can win longer term with say breakouts, you can win shorter term.....................however, you must compress your 100 trades over the space of a day or two, and if scalping, you can go to thousands of trades a day.

For non-institutional or shop traders, brokerage becomes a factor.
The way around brokerage is trading size. [limits the total # trades/day] Now, rather than virtually scalping every trade, you look for slightly larger moves [1% to 1.5%]

Trading size magnifies the psychological pressure significantly, and everyone is different. The rule of thumb however still is worth thinking about, and that is; if you are in psychological cruise mode on position size, you won't earn enough to pay the mortgage.


In regards to daytraders stepping up to lead a live trading experience, I count zero so far. Herein lies a truism, many talk about daytading profitably, few walk daytrading profitably.

I'll trade the US live.
I'm up at 0300am NZ time for a 0330am US Market open.
The first half hour I'll detail the strategy, place positions, and manage the trades through the day. I haven't daytraded for almost 2yrs, so it might be an unmitigated disaster.......bloodbath, but that will serve if nothing else as a reality check.

jog on
d998


----------



## coyotte (19 December 2006)

It's Snake Pliskin said:
			
		

> Maybe most make it harder than it could be.
> 
> I guess it depends on how MUCH one is happy with earning. If it is $100 per day then it will be a lot easier than if one is trying to get $10,000 per day - just to throw some perspective in.




imho don't look @ daily profit/loss ---- that's wage mentality 

look @ a 20 day trading period or monthly cycle 

then that cycle over a financial year 

amazing how the cycles will repeat year after year 


Ducati

I find posting LIVE trades one of the most distracting thing I've encounted.

Good Luck


Cheers


----------



## ducati916 (19 December 2006)

*coyotte*



> _Ducati
> 
> I find posting LIVE trades one of the most distracting things I've encounted
> Good Luck
> Cheers_




Of course, who needs the added stress, but therein always lays the excuse as to why it is not actually implemented by the *successful* daytraders. Posting hindsight trades, of daytrading is absolutely a waste of time. Everyone in hindsight can see the optimal entry & exit points.

Daytrading is not about analysis, it is about making a fast decision, under extreme pressure, and managing that decision tick by tick. All the blather about analysis is just so much nonsense.

Daytrading is about PRESSURE.
Daytrading live, simply separates the fantasy artists from grim reality, that this is bloody hard, and most will be handed their lunch.

jog on
d998


----------



## coyotte (19 December 2006)

ducati916 said:
			
		

> Daytrading is not about analysis, it is about making a fast decision, under extreme pressure, and managing that decision tick by tick. All the blather about analysis is just so much nonsense."




A ** Gem **

U got to make up your mind either your an Analyst or a Trader -- in all forms of trading.

or put another way -- the mechanic or driver of a race car.


Cheers


----------



## constable (19 December 2006)

constable said:
			
		

> Ok here's a trade ive taken today based on auz previous support at 8 cents.
> Bought 200000 units at the close of 8.1 cents . Was prepared to pay 8.2.
> Why did i buy ?
> Because auz has started to stray outside its upwards trend.
> ...



out at .082 no volume happening and looking very stagnant.


----------



## mrWoodo (19 December 2006)

Pretty broad question, but how many trades/week would a 'regular' day trader (ie, one that does it for a living) place ? If we're talking 25+, I guess the time spent preparing tax returns, keeping track of trades, etc would be considerable.


----------



## yogi-in-oz (19 December 2006)

ducati916 said:
			
		

> Daytrading is not about analysis, it is about making a fast decision, under extreme pressure, and managing that decision tick by tick. All the blather about analysis is just so much nonsense.
> 
> Daytrading is about PRESSURE.
> Daytrading live, simply separates the fantasy artists from grim reality, that this is bloody hard, and most will be handed their lunch.
> ...




Hi duc,

Second paragraph of your statement above is quite true
and the key to each trade is market timing ... if we have 
our timing and direction right, we win ..... yes??

However by dismissing all analysis on individual markets
as nonsense, means you are missing out on some handy
timing tools ... truly an asset for daytraders.

By using such tools, as daytraders, we can be selective
about the markets we are trading ... meaning, we will NOT
be trading EVERY day and the markets we do trade, will
likely be those, with which we are quite familiar.

Later, if anybody is interested, we can show how such
analysis can help us to PLAN our daytrading, even
BEFORE the market opens !~!

Another advantage of such analysis is the reduction of 
STRESS levels, due to trading at specific times and NOT
having to be glued to the screen for the whole trading day.

have a great day

  yogi


----------



## ducati916 (19 December 2006)

*Yogi*



> _However by dismissing all analysis on individual markets
> as nonsense, means you are missing out on some handy
> timing tools ... truly an asset for daytraders.
> 
> ...




I am not a subscriber to the analysis provides a positive expectancy school. Not for daytrades anyway. Swing trading is an alternative style, but has some very real differences to daytrading.

However preparation, a subtle difference is vital.
Preparation really means that in the heat of the market, you can act, rather than think. Your thinking, has already been completed prior to market open, preferably the previous evening.

Preparation will connote analysis to some, however, all analysis will over time and a high enough number of trades crunch out to 50/50. Your profit is in cutting the losses very quickly, and hanging on for as long as possible to your winners. 

Therefore when I dismiss analysis, I dismiss analysis as a statistical probability that somehow translates into profits. Preparation however will equate into profit, as preparation = discipline = tight money management = profits.

jog on
d998


----------



## It's Snake Pliskin (19 December 2006)

> imho don't look @ daily profit/loss ---- that's wage mentality
> 
> look @ a 20 day trading period or monthly cycle
> 
> ...




So just to set the mood of this thread are comments for the sake of clarity and to highlight a point allowed without the game of one upmanship?


----------



## It's Snake Pliskin (19 December 2006)

ducati916 said:
			
		

> _'Most'_ will focus on the analysis [technical, gann, etc] whereas in daytrading, *money management* is king.
> 
> Assuming that your first nine trades are all losses, and you are down your $900........would you take trade ten? The answer is that you must, and 11,12, etc. But this is harder than it sounds, you will be pretty beat up psychologically by this stage, and self-belief will be a distant memory. Discipline is the way forward, but very few can actually execute.
> 
> ...




Good post Duc.

Ok so Duc is our first trader. Good


----------



## SevenFX (19 December 2006)

It's Snake Pliskin said:
			
		

> Good post Duc.
> 
> Ok so Duc is our first trader. Good




How about we see some good posts from you Snake...

Haven't seen any yet, but I'm sure when they come, they will be Great.

Thanks
SevenFX


----------



## It's Snake Pliskin (19 December 2006)

SevenFX said:
			
		

> How about we see some good posts from you Snake...
> 
> Haven't seen any yet, but I'm sure when they come, they will be ......
> 
> ...




Hi Techman,

I am not a day-trader. I trade swings or positions. I do the odd day trade.

I am thinking of participating in this exercise though. I could be beheaded by the market or by my own ineptness. 
Snake


----------



## ducati916 (19 December 2006)

The stock will be........BIDU, the day, by popular demand is?

jog on
d998


----------



## SevenFX (19 December 2006)

It's Snake Pliskin said:
			
		

> I am thinking of participating in this exercise though. I could be beheaded by the market or by my own ineptness. Snake




Ahhh....Feel the Fear and Do It Anyway.

I look forward to your post, Snake.

Duc... Is that baidu.com [bidu_us]


----------



## ducati916 (19 December 2006)

*Tek*

Indeed it is..........a daytrading monster!

jog on
d998


----------



## coyotte (19 December 2006)

It's Snake Pliskin said:
			
		

> So just to set the mood of this thread are comments for the sake of clarity and to highlight a point allowed without the game of one upmanship?




WOW! sensitive aren't we?  --- just the part of the basic mind set of any business.



Cheers


----------



## wayneL (19 December 2006)

ducati916 said:
			
		

> *Tek*
> 
> Indeed it is..........a daytrading monster!
> 
> ...




I'll find some more fire breathing dragons and post them up for interest.

FWIW - another daytraders blog => http://estocastica.blogspot.com


----------



## It's Snake Pliskin (20 December 2006)

coyotte said:
			
		

> WOW! sensitive aren't we?  --- just the part of the basic mind set of any business.
> 
> 
> 
> Cheers




One up again. Go fo it!


----------



## It's Snake Pliskin (20 December 2006)

SevenFX said:
			
		

> Ahhh....Feel the Fear and Do It Anyway.
> 
> I look forward to your post, Snake.
> 
> Duc... Is that baidu.com [bidu_us]




Hi Teckmann,
I will refrain from doing it because the creator of the thread has gone. I genuinely wanted to give something.
However, I will at some stage PM you and some others with some stuff.
Regards
Snake


----------



## ducati916 (20 December 2006)

*et al*

What is becoming quite apparent in this thread, is that in reality, contrary to what is generally posted, that there are very few, [if any] daytraders that ply their trade on this forum. I am sure there will be the odd shout of disagreement, but there you have it.

The reason is that most retail daytraders fail, and fail miserably. The few that succeed tend to have quite a high burn-out rate, as this is stressful. Most morph into longer term strategies, which is eminently sensible.

For those seriously interested, I will trade live if there is enough interest. Those who are interested, simply send a PM & we can [if enough] arrange a day.

jog on
d998


----------



## nizar (20 December 2006)

ducati916 said:
			
		

> Most morph into longer term strategies, which is eminently sensible.




You are probably right here.
For me personally, it was the other way around, i wanted to ride long term trends but in the end i found myself mostly buying and selling on the same day or holding for a few days.


----------



## Bobby (20 December 2006)

Now that Tech has left the thread  ~ Who Cares ?

I do !! 

 The subject will be poorer without him, like others I was interested in Tech's quest for self-understanding & consciousness development.

I like these words by Ralph Emerson.

Do you want to be a power in the world ? Then be yourself. Be true to the highest within your soul & then allow yourself to be governed by no customs or conventionalities or arbitrary man-made rules that are not founded on principle.

Bob.


----------



## It's Snake Pliskin (20 December 2006)

Bobby said:
			
		

> Now that Tech has left the thread  ~ Who Cares ?
> 
> I do !!
> 
> ...




Bobby,

Nice comments.
I considered contributing, but decided against it. Tech has left, everyone wants to "knock" those who speak.  I don't tolerate rubbish or those who have graduated with rabbit mentality. It has really made me think how terrible the "Australian knocking those who achieve something" mentality is rampant. For that reason I will PM some of you with some trades and methodologies in the new year. Actually I may just blog it if time permits.

Take care Bob.
Snake


----------



## wayneL (20 December 2006)

I sincerely hope Tech comes back.

Anyway, this blog HERE  suggests an unusual psychological tool to warm up for the days trading. I reckon it would be particularly useful for day trading.

 Cheers


----------



## barney (20 December 2006)

It's Snake Pliskin said:
			
		

> Bobby,
> 
> Nice comments.
> I considered contributing, but decided against it. Tech has left, everyone wants to "knock" those who speak.  I don't tolerate rubbish or those who have graduated with rabbit mentality. It has really made me think how terrible the "Australian knocking those who achieve something" mentality is rampant. For that reason I will PM some of you with some trades and methodologies in the new year. Actually I may just blog it if time permits.
> ...




Put me on the list thanks Snake.  

Not everyone likes to "knock" imo ..... actually, on this forum, there are more non "knockers" than knockers ..... Its just that the knockers get noticed more (I think they like it that way!!!! ....... ) 

Come on Tech .... there has been enough support from the genuine folks around here for you to drop back in and give us your two bobs worth ................ Actually it would be a great sign of character for you to do that .............  Any one else agree??


----------



## constable (20 December 2006)

barney said:
			
		

> Put me on the list thanks Snake.
> 
> Not everyone likes to "knock" imo ..... actually, on this forum, there are more non "knockers" than knockers ..... Its just that the knockers get noticed more (I think they like it that way!!!! ....... )
> 
> Come on Tech .... there has been enough support from the genuine folks around here for you to drop back in and give us your two bobs worth ................ Actually it would be a great sign of character for you to do that .............  Any one else agree??



Yep couldn't agree more Barney. Tech's a valuable asset to asf.
By the way i nearly posted to the funniest post thread before...when i found out someone uses astrology to pick their shares hahaha lol


----------



## Kauri (20 December 2006)

I think that Tech/a has finally had enough and moved on. For the Knockers    that have managed to destroy the singularly most educational aspect of the ASF forums, THANKS. Maybe one of these ****rs will now step up and freely share thier time and knowledge. Or maybe not.


----------



## chops_a_must (20 December 2006)

I would really like to see what genuine day traders do. Not because I'm interested in becoming one, just purely out of curiosity, and I'm always interested in learning new things.

So if there are pm's or whatever, count me in.


----------



## stoxclimber (20 December 2006)

Kauri said:
			
		

> I think that Tech/a has finally had enough and moved on. For the Knockers    that have managed to destroy the singularly most educational aspect of the ASF forums, THANKS. Maybe one of these ****rs will now step up and freely share thier time and knowledge. Or maybe not.




How can someone be a great trader if they get so emotional about a poster on the internet? Shrug. I think it's just attention seeking, but maybe one really can get so emotional, see esp the IDIOTS thread.  After all, theres one tried and tested way to silence the critics and thats to put runs on the board - not running away.


----------



## wayneL (20 December 2006)

stoxclimber said:
			
		

> How can someone be a great trader if they get so emotional about a poster on the internet? Shrug. I think it's just attention seeking, but maybe one really can get so emotional, see esp the IDIOTS thread.  After all, theres one tried and tested way to silence the critics and thats to put runs on the board - not running away.




Stox

We are not here to butt heads, but to help each other. Tech's got the runs on the board as far as trend trading and this thread was to trade ideas on day trading.

Does anyone think for a moment that Buffet or Soros would hang around to be insulted? It's not about running away at all. Tech hasn't said a further word  here at ASF... where's the attention seeking?

Seriously, folks have got the wrong end of the stick here. Enough of the picking and knocking!!!

Precious few have been willing to put up like Duc or Tech and a couple of others, but plenty of knockers. 

It's spoilt it for the people who want to learn.

Think about that folks!!!

Please, only content and questions from now on!


----------



## Bobby (20 December 2006)

stoxclimber said:
			
		

> How can someone be a great trader if they get so emotional about a poster on the internet? Shrug. I think it's just attention seeking, but maybe one really can get so emotional, see esp the IDIOTS thread.  After all, theres one tried and tested way to silence the critics and thats to put runs on the board - not running away.




Stoxclimber I'm going to go a bit easy on you, have a read of a few hundred of Techs posts, you will then find he's already got the runs on board!

When you are insulted in a unwarranted snipe too often, my reaction could well be the same 'Stuff this why bother'.

Bob.


----------



## Bobby (20 December 2006)

Wayne I posted without seeing yours.

Liked what you said but.

Cheers bob.


----------



## It's Snake Pliskin (21 December 2006)

barney said:
			
		

> Put me on the list thanks Snake.
> 
> Not everyone likes to "knock" imo ..... actually, on this forum, there are more non "knockers" than knockers ..... Its just that the knockers get noticed more (I think they like it that way!!!! ....... )




*B*arney,

You and *B*obby are my *B*uddies.


----------



## MichaelD (21 December 2006)

wayneL said:
			
		

> Does anyone think for a moment that Buffet or Soros would hang around to be insulted?



Buffet or Soros would not put themselves in such a firing line in the first place.

Being philosophical for a moment - why does anyone who knows how to trade post in public fora like this? Why do YOU post? Why does Tech/A post? Why do I post?

It's a question I personally have pondered for some time. Is it altruism? Is it the desire for companionship (trading being such a solitary game)? Is it a way of confirming our own beliefs (to fully understand a concept you must teach it to another/if we say it on a forum we are more likely to do it in our own trading)? Is it an ego-stroking exercise?

Whatever the case, any time you post in these fora, you expose yourself to a whirlwind of ridicule, most likely from the 90%ers. From what I have seen so far, the only time when true trading wisdom is welcome is towards the end of a painful bear run. Come the bull run and what we have to say is again scorned.

Enough philosophy. Now perhaps back on topic (although it's probably mortally wounded).


----------



## wayneL (21 December 2006)

MichaelD said:
			
		

> Buffet or Soros would not put themselves in such a firing line in the first place.



Michael,

The question was rhetorical, but as a point of order, they do put themselves in the firing line, just in a different arena. Soros at least, will come out in the media and put his views out there. He has had some interesting exchanges over the last year. We here are simply in a parallel universe, but the situation is similar.



			
				MichaelD said:
			
		

> Being philosophical for a moment - why does anyone who knows how to trade post in public fora like this? Why do YOU post? Why does Tech/A post? Why do I post?
> 
> It's a question I personally have pondered for some time. Is it altruism? Is it the desire for companionship (trading being such a solitary game)? Is it a way of confirming our own beliefs (to fully understand a concept you must teach it to another/if we say it on a forum we are more likely to do it in our own trading)? Is it an ego-stroking exercise?



It's a good question, and I think all of the above factors come into play to a lesser or greater degree.

But it is undeniable that we humans enjoy talking about our interests and experiences. That's why we all get together to "shoot the breeze" at the pub.  We are gregarious creatures.




			
				MichaelD said:
			
		

> Whatever the case, any time you post in these fora, you expose yourself to a whirlwind of ridicule, most likely from the 90%ers. From what I have seen so far, the only time when true trading wisdom is welcome is towards the end of a painful bear run. Come the bull run and what we have to say is again scorned.
> 
> Enough philosophy. Now perhaps back on topic (although it's probably mortally wounded).



You do develop a thick skin


----------



## SevenFX (21 December 2006)

What a *Shame* Yogi (or inviduals like him) can pick off people he dislikes and continue to harrass them till they don't see any value in being here.

Who will it be *next* WayneL, Kennas, Snake, Duc, MichaelD...???? all the people we admire and learn a Lot from like Tech/A who has contributed so much round here.

If were Silent and allow this to occur, it's only a matter of time b4 it will be Yogi with someone else who he doesn't agree with.


----------



## MichaelD (21 December 2006)

wayneL said:
			
		

> You do develop a thick skin.



Just part of the winning trader's armamentarium.

Hint for everyone: The ignore user function is extremely well implemented here on ASF. It can make life here a lot more pleasant.


----------



## Bobby (22 December 2006)

ducati916 said:
			
		

> *et al*
> 
> What is becoming quite apparent in this thread, is that in reality, contrary to what is generally posted, that there are very few, [if any] daytraders that ply their trade on this forum. I am sure there will be the odd shout of disagreement, but there you have it.
> 
> ...



Hello Grant,

Remember when you used to post your trades live on another forum, takes guts & ego to do   

What I would like to know is your past feeling when doing this?

And now a renaissance, good on you!

Duc, what I'm asking of you is this, having been there & experienced this form of trading with your own money, your thoughts from the past to present would be most valuable.

Regards Bob.


----------



## ducati916 (23 December 2006)

*Bobby*



> _Duc, what I'm asking of you is this, having been there & experienced this form of trading with your own money, your thoughts from the past to present would be most valuable._




There is no one answer that will appease everyone. Speaking for myself, the day-to-day pressure of needing to maintain an emotional equilibrium necessary to exercise impartial discipline, with sums of money that were significant to myself............were exhausting.

At times it was impossible. I had a series [live] of six or seven quite major losses, and my confidence was at a very low ebb. I did manage to come good, but, it took a lot to keep placing trades.

The temptation is to cut back on size.
On the face of it sensible, and recommended by many authors.This to my mind is a MISTAKE. 

Why?

Simply because, you start a pattern of losing with size, and winning small. It's simply another variation of ignoring [or poor discipline] on stops. There are other variations on the same theme, but in essence, as previously stated, the psychological grinding will wear down 95% of daytraders.

This is a more accurate interpretation of the 95% lose statistic. You may place 100's perhap's 1000's of paper trades and win a high % and think, hell son, I'm in the 5%.................not until you can overcome the relentless grind of daytrading. Nothing worse than being asked everyday by the Missus, how much money did you make today, when you've just been mauled by some Futures contract.

Why don't boxers, or contact fight sports fight full contact everyday?
Same reason traders shouldn't trade everyday.
Do yourself a favour, and let the mind heal itself between trades.

jog on
d998


----------



## coyotte (23 December 2006)

As I stated prior -- I must trade differently to others.
I just go for small bites of the cherry -- but on a consistent basis.

With stocks like LHG and OXR there is more often than not a greater than .05cent move on a intraday, 2day and Fri/Mon basis.

At around the $3.00 level you only need 2000 shares @ $6000 to make a .05c move to come out with a $100 profit less (with IGmarkets) $6+$6 Brokerage.

The KEY is imo to keep STOPS tight and do not hesitate to act.
The moment price moves against U jump ship -- even if in profit -- take the smaller profit and wait for another entry --- I give both the above shares a .02cent leeway -- both the above shares can be traded long/short which is what U need.

So my bottom line is--- stick to a handful of stocks in the $1.00 to $4.00 range with reasonable daily volatility and ample volume --- but get to know them! -- follow them on 15min charts over a month or so and you start to get the FEEL of them.

Keep my trading targets at a realistic level relative to the "s/t trading bank" and be satisfied with nibbles rather than a feast.

I still maintain Position Trades (BHP AMP WOW etc) Medium Term 10/30 days  Target Trades (ILU) -- Day Trading is just another part of the group. 

The RMD trade was closed on Tues @ breakeven less brokerage -- I rarely trade this stock as it lacks daily volatility -- but thought the probability for a small down move was high  (I was Short).

Love this bit from Mark Douglas (page 35) -- could start a thread on this:



> The first trader uses a simple, possibly even mediocre trading technique, but posses a mind-set that is not susceptible to subconsciously distorting market information, hesitating, rationalizing, hoping, or jumping the gun.
> The second trader is a phenomenal analyst, but still operating out of the typical fears that make him susceptible to all of the psychological maladies that the other trader is free of.




----- CHOOSE --- and WHY ?


cheers 

and a Very Merry Christmas to one and all.


----------



## coyotte (24 December 2006)

Actually whilst not exectly "day trading" but a maybe a point to start from is the IC forum Weekly Comp.

These Guys/Gals (around 20) select a stock for a week -- Open Monday to Close Friday -- they are required to provide a chart with reasons why the selection was chosen -- just ordinary people -- ordinary charts and selection methods -- without the luxury of being able to board and jump ship when they want to.

They can manage to make profits of over 10% in a week, often in a day.
There would be around five who consistanly manage a 3% to 5% profit week after week --- all low tech stuff -- no over analysis -- just everyday short term traders -- If they can manage that with the restrictions invoked then in my books these are you're fair dinkum traders --- no pie in the sky stuff here.

But I just find it strange that the Gurus on this site maintain that on avg the best you can expect is a 50/50 strike rate (in that case just throw a dart) whilst a few of the competitors in this comp just go on week in, week out picking winning stocks --- they probably haven't run into the Gurus to realize that they should not be doing that, poor inocent buggers.


Note : although I had closed the position on Tues (carrying a large SHORT over nights can be unhealthy) RMD did carry on to hit and even exceed the stated target on Thurs and Friday --- so really no high tech, over analysis need be involved.


Cheers


----------



## ducati916 (24 December 2006)

*coyotte*



> _These Guys/Gals (around 20) select a stock for a week _






> _There would be around five who consistanly manage a 3% to 5% profit week after week _




Immediately we can see that only 25% manage a consistent return out of the 20 "super traders". How many are these 20 expressed as a % of IC as a whole?

This is in a consistent Bull market of 4yrs duration now.



> _But I just find it strange that the Gurus on this site maintain that on avg the best you can expect is a 50/50 strike rate (in that case just throw a dart) whilst a few of the competitors in this comp just go on week in, week out picking winning stocks _




Because simply that is what the numbers return.
However, if in this TINY sample, there is a significant deviation, then post the link to the results, and let me have a nosy about. I would be quite interested to see their results at/towards the end of May this year, as one example.

jog on
d998
http://ducati998.wordpress.com/


----------



## constable (24 December 2006)

coyotte said:
			
		

> As I stated prior -- I must trade differently to others.
> I just go for small bites of the cherry -- but on a consistent basis.
> 
> With stocks like LHG and OXR there is more often than not a greater than .05cent move on a intraday, 2day and Fri/Mon basis.
> ...



Similar to my own style in relation to small bites of the cherry and tight stop losses.
Last week i placed 14 trades 6 wins avg $525 and 8 losses avg $242.68
expectancy 2.16 
$1036 taxable for the week 
Last 8 weeks avg $1265 per week exp 1.55
Nothing spectacular but rarely used any funds to purchase as most positions were daily.
low light bottom drawed inl holdining 80000 avg .296
                                 tas  200000 avg .206
not particulary concerned with either of these stocks as both are fundamentally sound imo worth holding long term.
Generally pretty quick to sack a stock but as the above two examples reveal I still fool myself sometimes! Not sure having the luxury of funds to hold is a good thing sometimes but fundamentals have to be fairly upbeat b4 i take the stock on board.


----------



## Kauri (24 December 2006)

ducati916 said:
			
		

> Why?
> 
> This is a more accurate interpretation of the 95% lose statistic. You may place 100's perhap's 1000's of paper trades and win a high % and think, hell son, I'm in the 5%.................not until you can overcome the relentless grind of daytrading. Nothing worse than being asked everyday by the Missus, how much money did you make today, when you've just been mauled by some Futures contract.
> 
> ...




   I have always wondered about this 95% lose-5% win statistic that is so often quoted. Is it founded in fact, is there a study anywhere that backs this up or is it something that has been repeated so often that it has become fact?   Just curious..


----------



## It's Snake Pliskin (24 December 2006)

Kauri said:
			
		

> I have always wondered about this 95% lose-5% win statistic that is so often quoted. Is it founded in fact, is there a study anywhere that backs this up or is it something that has been repeated so often that it has become fact?   Just curious..




Kauri,

Good question. I think the reality is nobody would know. It would be impossible to measure. Unless brokers have stats on the issue - maybe.


----------



## Bobby (24 December 2006)

ducati916 said:
			
		

> *Bobby*
> 
> There is no one answer that will appease everyone. Speaking for myself, the day-to-day pressure of needing to maintain an emotional equilibrium necessary to exercise impartial discipline, with sums of money that were significant to myself............were exhausting.
> 
> ...



Hello Duc,

Thanks for being so candid, I do endorse your reasoning on not cutting back trade size.
Yep the burden of trading each day would encumber most, maybe a touch of megalomania could be the key ?  : 

Just on stops ~ did you place them in the market or use your mental dexterity.

Being questioned by a spouse everyday on how did you go $Dear$ would generate enough stress to cloud each new trade, Uck !

Appreciate your input.
Bob.


----------



## ducati916 (24 December 2006)

*et al*

In regards to stops, definitely mental. The reason being that the MM in the US do run stops, and you can very often see them do it watching LevelII screens it is that blatant.

Therefore, if I believed the move was real, and not just a gunning, I would exit.............of course, sometimes gunning can become real.

In regards to the 95% stat. there was a large study done in the US utilising Schwab, or someone, that pretty much confirmed the stat.

There was also this study;
http://faculty.haas.berkeley.edu/odean/papers/Taiwan Performance/Who Gains from Trade 040407.pdf

Daytrading is hard graft baby!

jog on
d998


----------



## It's Snake Pliskin (24 December 2006)

Bobby said:
			
		

> Being questioned by a spouse everyday on how did you go $Dear$ would generate enough stress to cloud each new trade, Uck !




Bob,
This is an important aspect which is more than annoying. It is psychological destructive pollution. It would lead to divorce based on my character.


----------



## barney (24 December 2006)

It's Snake Pliskin said:
			
		

> Bob,
> This is an important aspect which is more than annoying. It is psychological destructive pollution. It would lead to divorce based on my character.




Howdy Snake, and merry Xmas to you ................. I've gotta give my wife a wrap based on your comment ........... As you know I've made a couple of monumental stuff ups in the last few months, but at no time did my wife give me a hard time, or put pressure on me to stop trading ............ I am one of the lucky ones ............ All the best to all for the festive season (Remember .... one glass of water for every three beers ............. thats gona be a lot of water I'm gona have to drink     (JK, but it is a good time of year)


----------



## Bobby (24 December 2006)

It's Snake Pliskin said:
			
		

> Bob,
> This is an important aspect which is more than annoying. It is psychological destructive pollution. It would lead to divorce based on my character.




Snake I fully agree with you on this, I've tried marriage ~ ( great for some ) but not for me.
Its all those little things that used to bug me no end, like at my own BBQ being told this *You're not having another can are you Bob?*  Gee's now I'll have as many as I like!

Bottoms Up Bob.


----------



## It's Snake Pliskin (24 December 2006)

Bobby said:
			
		

> Snake I fully agree with you on this, I've tried marriage ~ ( great for some ) but not for me.
> Its all those little things that used to bug me no end, like at my own BBQ being told this *You're not having another can are you Bob?*  Gee's now I'll have as many as I like!
> 
> Bottoms Up Bob.




Bob and Barney,

I have a nice little Jap wife who is very supportive and not selfish.

Barney you sound as if your wife is a gem


----------



## happytrader (24 December 2006)

Kauri said:
			
		

> I have always wondered about this 95% lose-5% win statistic that is so often quoted. Is it founded in fact, is there a study anywhere that backs this up or is it something that has been repeated so often that it has become fact?   Just curious..




Hi Kauri

From the traders I know that have come and gone I would definitely say its true. Also we had a poster here named Rex who had worked for Etrade pretty much testify to the drop out rate.

The most significant quality that I have identified with successful traders is an indomitable spirit or inner mastery. No all day screen watching or negotiating with stop losses and entries because that would amount to being dominated by the market or some inner thought. Traders also benefit from not getting too comfortable. Most noteable is the absence of projecting blame, shame and making rude noises to all and sundry when things don't go as expected or no one agrees.



Cheers
Happytrader


----------



## barney (24 December 2006)

It's Snake Pliskin said:
			
		

> Bob and Barney,
> 
> I have a nice little Jap wife who is very supportive and not selfish.
> 
> Barney you sound as if your wife is a gem




Absolutely Snake ............ Supportive, unselfish, giving, caring, compassionate, long suffering .............. seriously I would run out of space if I had to write all the words I could think of (she occassionally gives me a bit of stick when I need it, but boy she puts up with a lot b4 it gets to that stage) .............. I have met a few japanese ladies, and they mostly seem to have great humility, which I reckon is one of the greatest attributes a person can have ................ 

Hi Bob,  being out of a relationship is the best way to be, if the relationship was not mutually rewarding ............ (enjoy those extra few beers)

I know I've gotten off topic here, but what the heck ...Its christmas!!!!

PS Merry Xmas Coyotte .............. I like the way you approach trading ... I've learned some good stuff from your "concepts"  (I have my copy of "Adaptive Analysis" now, so the xmas break wont be wasted!!!)


----------



## qaz (24 December 2006)

coyotte said:
			
		

> But I just find it strange that the Gurus on this site maintain that on avg the best you can expect is a 50/50 strike rate (in that case just throw a dart) whilst a few of the competitors in this comp just go on week in, week out picking winning stocks --- they probably haven't run into the Gurus to realize that they should not be doing that, poor inocent buggers.




I think they're basically trying to say that psychology and money management is much more important than your entry rate and that you can make fantastic returns with a completely random entry system if your psychology and money management is spot on.


----------



## soultrader (26 December 2006)

I am strictly an intraday trader and never hold any positions overnight. I also trade mainly the first 60 minutes only which allows me to stay away from the screens. 

This might be slightly off topic but I wanted to hear you guys opinion. It seems like more and more day traders are automating their trading. Some go far as to say automation is the only way to make money day trading. As a pure discretionary trader I find myself a rare breed.

However, I believe there is an edge with both discretionary and automated trading. Discretionary allows better intraday entries if one is a good tape reader. This means you will be taking minimal heat... in the long run you end up saving a ton of points. On the other hand, automated trading helps one take emotions out of trading. (not entirely but more than discretionary)

What are your thoughts on automated vs discretionary? What type of trader are you and which do you prefer? Thanks.


----------



## ducati916 (26 December 2006)

> _Discretionary allows better intraday entries if one is a good tape reader._




Which assumes that you can identify the correct trend direction in short timeframes. The Law of large numbers dictates 50/50. However, there will always be the odd outlier [person] that can overcome this statistic. If you are such a person, then daytrading will be profitable.

Of far more interest though is assuming you are only a 50/50 trader, can you still be profitable?

The answer is yes. But it has nothing to do with trading prowess, more, psychological indomitability. This is where daytraders fail. The mental stamina required will burn out 95%......the 5% psychological monsters will do well.

Also if 9/10 trades are winning trades, then a discretionary methodology will work just fine assuming that you are not tick scalping.

If you are tick scalping, you need zero brokerage to overcome the losses when they occur [and possibly a 7/10 success rate]

The Prop. Shops tend to automate with 100's to 1000's of envelope [bracket] trades [as an example of automated] and this pretty much results in being net profitable. However you have, low brokerage, and robust platforms capable of firing off hundreds of trades more or less instantly. The average retail trader will not have these two advantages.

jog on
d998


----------



## soultrader (26 December 2006)

Theres a great article by Brett Steenbarger where he talks about trading psychology. (Located here) He mentions how trading is more than just mastering your own psychological weakness. Most traders fail because of the lack of market understanding and knowledge. 

I agree with this comment. I think alot of traders never fully understand the market or markets they are trading. In order to be successful in intraday trading, one must be an expert in the underlying financial instrument he is trading. This means knowing exactly where key S&R levels are, understanding the characteristic of the contract/stock, etc... 

I trade the YM dow minis exclusively. I have learned to specialize in it which has helped me tremendously. I understand the personality of the traders behind it, average volume, price acceptance vs price rejection, certain psych levels it likes to respect, the flow of the tape, pivot points it respects, etc... All of these information has helped me identify which trading strategies I need to apply successfully everyday. By looking at the flow of the tape and volume within the first 5-10 minutes I am able to identify a trend vs rangebound day. I am not a scalper... my trading style is more of a one shot one kill type.

Therefore, a trader can be psychologically strong. But without the proper education and training, he is doomed to fail. Of course there are other important factors such as money management, discipline, etc... 

I think scalping is a technique best left for floor traders. I know of traders who consider themsevles a scalper by trading 3-4 times and taking 1 point of the S&P. However, i believe a more appropiate phrase should be a trader taking profits too soon. Scalper for me refers to a trader making over 30-50 trades a day on high volume taking a few ticks here and there. Although we can obtain pit noise live and direct, floor traders still have an advantage on us: the visual. They are able to spot the top teners (top ten big floor traders) step in and out before us. 

A friend of mine told me when I was 20.... "To make real money, be an expert in something." In trading, I believe one needs to be an expert in the market he trades and an expert in his own trading metholodogy.

Good luck


----------



## ducati916 (26 December 2006)

*soultrader*

Well unfortunately I do not rate Brett Steenbarger at all.



> _I agree with this comment. I think alot of traders never fully understand the market or markets they are trading. In order to be successful in intraday trading, one must be an expert in the underlying financial instrument he is trading. This means knowing exactly where key S&R levels are, understanding the characteristic of the contract/stock, etc... _




What moves a futures contract [or a stock]

*sentiment
*price psychology
*news
*arbitrage
*hedging
*cash market
*interest rates
*inflation
*etc

These are by definition future events, and unknowable. Thus, Brett is waffling total nonsense.



> _I trade the YM dow minis exclusively. I have learned to specialize in it which has helped me tremendously. I understand the personality of the traders behind it, average volume, price acceptance vs price rejection, certain psych levels it likes to respect, the flow of the tape, pivot points it respects, etc... All of these information has helped me identify which trading strategies I need to apply successfully everyday. By looking at the flow of the tape and volume within the first 5-10 minutes I am able to identify a trend vs rangebound day. I am not a scalper... my trading style is more of a one shot one kill type._




See above.

Daytrading is really about assuming risk..........and managing that risk in a compressed timeframe. That's it. All you need know is;

*I will assume risk on my entry signal
*I will close the trade at my stop
*I will exit on my exit signal

That's it. Nothing else required. You need know or understand absolutely nothing further than this. If you can do this all day long, with large amounts of money, in a calm manner, you'll do very well.

jog on
d998


----------



## nizar (26 December 2006)

soultrader said:
			
		

> A friend of mine told me when I was 20.... "To make real money, be an expert in something." In trading, I believe one needs to be an expert in the market he trades and an expert in his own trading metholodogy.




Too true


----------



## soultrader (26 December 2006)

ducati916 said:
			
		

> *soultrader*
> 
> Well unfortunately I do not rate Brett Steenbarger at all.
> 
> ...




Youre right... but in intraday trading everything is 100% technical. Interest rates, inflation, etc.... affect the market definitely. But a day trader can simply choose not to trade the news and focus only on well developed setups. These setups will occur over and over again. This is the bread and butter for a day trader. Short term price movement can be anticipated in day trading. (I actually mean this 100%) Of course nothing is exact science, but more knowledge of the markets = higher probability of success.

As a intraday trader the state of the economy does not matter to me. Of course in a bull market we will see trending days more often and in times of consolidation one must apply a rangebound strategy. Long term sentiment does not matter as well. Market internals will provide me information to analyze the health of the market at that moment. Therefore market sentiment changes everyday, every hour, every minute.

I also think trading is alot deeper than just honoring your stops, exiting at your targets , and assuming risk. These are all important elements for a trader to survive. However, timing on entries and exits is alot more complicated. Why do you enter? Why do you exit? Do you exit mechanically or discretionary? What methods do you use to project your target points? etc..

You can not possibly be successful just by following stops, entries, and exits without a clear understanding of the market you are trading. Otherwise this would just be disciplined gambling. No way you can profit successfully without the markets stopping you out everytime. 

Psychology plays a bigger part in trading. Depending on your own pscyhological makeup, traders may feel more emotional pain leaving profits on the table rather than losses. How you deal with your psychological weaknesses is definitely a challenge.


----------



## nizar (26 December 2006)

ducati916 said:
			
		

> Daytrading is really about assuming risk..........and managing that risk in a compressed timeframe. That's it. All you need know is;
> 
> *I will assume risk on my entry signal
> *I will close the trade at my stop
> ...




Great wisdom there.

Also, id like to add that the stop, and exit, needs to be determined before the entry, so you can trade the price action as it comes and not be suprised by anything ie. you will be in total control and will not panic as youve got a solution for every scenario that pans out.


----------



## ducati916 (26 December 2006)

*soultrader*



> _but in intraday trading everything is 100% technical._




Incorrect.

Arbitrage is not technical.
Hedging is not technical.
Both of these volume & price executions will take place based on value. Nothing to do with *technical* at all. On occasion, randomly, technical & value will coincide.



> _choose not to trade the news and focus only on well developed setups. _




Again, totally unrealistic nonsense.
Some news will be pre-announced; viz. Fed Interest rate announcements, Earnings, etc. Some news events just happen........and they just happen, while you are in a trade........oh dear!



> _Of course in a bull market we will see trending days more often and in times of consolidation one must apply a rangebound strategy._




Nonsense.
http://www.crestmontresearch.com/pdfs/Stock Yo Yo.pdf



> _Therefore market sentiment changes everyday, every hour, every minute._




Which rather makes a nonsense of your *predicting* anything based on market internals etc.



> _However, timing on entries and exits is alot more complicated. Why do you enter? Why do you exit? Do you exit mechanically or discretionary? What methods do you use to project your target points? etc.._




You can make it as complicated as you wish, or as simple, it all boils down to 50/50, which = assume risk @ entry, manage risk, exit for profit or loss.



> _Otherwise this would just be disciplined gambling. _




Well yes and no.
Depends how you define gambling really.



> _Psychology plays a bigger part in trading. Depending on your own pscyhological makeup, traders may feel more emotional pain leaving profits on the table rather than losses. How you deal with your psychological weaknesses is definitely a challenge._




Daytrading = Psychological adaptation to risk assumed.

jog on
d998


----------



## soultrader (26 December 2006)

ducati916 said:
			
		

> Daytrading = Psychological adaptation to risk assumed.




True but not entirely. If day trading was only about risk management we would see alot more success rate in the field.

Short term price movement can be analyzed with internals. Im a futures trader so this may be different depending on what market you are currently trading. With index futures we have a good amount of tools one can use: TICK's, TRIN, PC ratio, premium, etc... These tools help to understand the market health. 

For example, TICK's trading above zero indicates bullishness. So the best strategies would be to look for long setups. However, as I mentioned market sentiment changes all the time. A new TICK low, and now your bullish bias turns neatural to bearish. A balanced market in value... one should apply a rangebound strategy. However a breakout above value with buyers on tape shows a change in market sentiment from neutral to bullish. This is what I am reffering to changes in sentiment for day traders.

Also, news comes out all the time. Yes you are correct. However, how many news actually affects the instrument you are trading? If there are economic reports coming out at 10:00am... you can simply trade after the market reaction. If Fed numbers are coming out in the afernoon, simply trade the morning. There are ways to avoid getting caught up in the news. For index futures, this is very obvious. The market dries up before news is released and volume suddenly picks up. 

I dont know about you... but how many independent traders do you know that use arbitrage in their trading technique???

Question for you: Do you day trade? If so, what market do you trade?


----------



## nizar (26 December 2006)

James,

I visited your website, some really good stuff there.
I thought this article was excellent



> Three Pervasive Myths in the Trading World
> 
> 
> Brett N. Steenbarger, Ph.D.
> ...




Also; a question for you. Why did you start trading futures? ie. instead of say, stocks. Have you ever traded stocks? Just curious.


----------



## soultrader (27 December 2006)

nizar said:
			
		

> James,
> 
> I visited your website, some really good stuff there.
> I thought this article was excellent
> ...




Thank you Nizar. To be honest, I had little success day trading stocks. I wasnt losing money but I wasnt finding success. I was still a rookie trader when I started playing with stocks and I spent a good amount of time scanning stocks. I was also severly distracted by Level 2 market maker games. When I started trading index futures, I could concentrate on just a few instruments: like the dow, russell, and S&P. This made my life alot easier. I also use alot of market profile in my trading and they work nicely for the YM.

I am also located in Japan and we have a 13hr time difference. Which means I start trading at 11:30pm. Which is why I enjoy the emini's right now. They move in the first 60 minutes and I can call it a day and it fits my trading style. 

I also enjoyed the article as I am a big fan of Brett Steenbargers work. I thought his book "The Psychology of Trading" was an excellent book.


----------



## It's Snake Pliskin (27 December 2006)

*Soultrader*


> These tools help to understand the market health.




...or one's interpretation of it.



> I dont know about you... but how many independent traders do you know that use arbitrage in their trading technique???




Not too many I would imagine.



> I also think trading is alot deeper than just honoring your stops, exiting at your targets , and assuming risk. These are all important elements for a trader to survive. However, timing on entries and exits is alot more complicated. Why do you enter? Why do you exit? Do you exit mechanically or discretionary? What methods do you use to project your target points? etc..
> 
> You can not possibly be successful just by following stops, entries, and exits without a clear understanding of the market you are trading. Otherwise this would just be disciplined gambling. No way you can profit successfully without the markets stopping you out everytime.




Yes, it is ok to romanticise that only exits make money, but it is a process of parts, so to speak. So Soul I do agree with you.

Snake


----------



## ducati916 (27 December 2006)

*soultrader*



> _Short term price movement can be analyzed with internals. Im a futures trader so this may be different depending on what market you are currently trading. With index futures we have a good amount of tools one can use: TICK's, TRIN, PC ratio, premium, etc... These tools help to understand the market health._




Take $TICK, scalpers will enter at extremes and fade the move, but they tend to fade it to equilibrium, possibly a couple of points. This is scalping, and you need lots of trades, and or large size.

TRIN uses the same mindset for scalpers, fade the extremes.
The point is, market internals only hold for very short moves, before you return to equilibrium, thus, you are scalping. If you scalp, you need even more discipline than a longer term daytrader.

The second consideration becomes, how reliable are these internal measuring devices? Well they are again, not much better than 50/50 They provide CONFIDENCE, or a psychological/emotional crutch [misplaced perhaps] in taking an entry, they define a stoploss exit, and a take profit exit.........just add discipline.



> _Also, news comes out all the time. Yes you are correct. However, how many news actually affects the instrument you are trading? If there are economic reports coming out at 10:00am... you can simply trade after the market reaction. If Fed numbers are coming out in the afernoon, simply trade the morning. There are ways to avoid getting caught up in the news. For index futures, this is very obvious. The market dries up before news is released and volume suddenly picks up. _




Preannounced news releases can be avoided, or traded, I thought we pretty much covered that contingency already.

Unexpected news, this can be the killer, as you cannot plan in advance for the effects, you can only manage the outcome. It may be +'ve or -"ve and this is a pure discipline skill.



> _I dont know about you... but how many independent traders do you know that use arbitrage in their trading technique???_




You have missed the point.
In missing the point you simply highlight your misplaced confidence within the *indicators* that you mention.

Hedging & Arbitrage tend NOT to be used by retail. They tend to be used by Institutions, as a way of managing, or off-setting risk. As such, their trades can go totally against the rational flow of the market [your indicators]
This would be fine, except they do it in such size, that it overwhelms for a brief period the *trend* and as price effects price, and there go your market internals for you.



> _Question for you: Do you day trade? If so, what market do you trade?_




Not any more.
I used to trade stocks & the NQ contract.

jog on
d998


----------



## ducati916 (27 December 2006)

*nizar*

The article that you have used as an example from Brett Steenbarger just illustrates perfectly why I consider him a peanut.



> _My work as a trading psychologist has provided me with a fascinating window on the factors that separate successful from unsuccessful traders across a variety of settings, from proprietary firms to investment banks to hedge funds. Having met and worked personally with well over 100 professional traders in the past few years, the main conclusion I’ve come to is that most of the generalizations about trading success are simply not true. In this article, *I thought I’d summarize three of the more pervasive myths * about trading success out there and offer my own, different perspectives._




He summarizes his credentials, thus, medically trained, I have great expectations for one of my own. Now note the highlighted sentence, he will refute three *MYTHS*



> _Myth #1
> Emotions are at the root of trading problems._




Therefore, Brett should be arguing the case that *emotions*, however defined, are not correlated to trading problems.

Unfortunately, he makes the case for the opposite premise, that in point of fact emotions, and emotional dysfunctional states, are causative within failed, and failing traders.



> _Indeed, emotional distress is as often the result of poor trading as the cause. When traders fail to manage risk properly, trading size that is too large for their accounts, they invite outsized emotional responses to their swings in P/L. _




This is almost a chicken & egg scenario.
Which came first, the bad decision, or the emotional response?
Emotions are a part, an inherent and inseparable part of human physiology & anatomy. As such, they cannot be removed.

Position size choice is composed of two elements, cognitive knowledge + confidence in that cognitive Knowledge. Confidence, is an emotion.
Thus the position size that is too large;

*poor knowledge + overconfidence in outcome
*average knowledge + overconfidence in outcome
*excellent knowledge + overconfidence in outcome

A better position equates to;

*good knowledge of risk assumed + plan to manage that risk + exit strategy + confidence in self to execute plan

Thus in both scenarios, emotions are vital. 
Without confidence, you will not trade, invest, or assume any form of risk.
Thus *emotions* are vital to trading, they underpin participation.
You gotta be in to win baby!



> _Trading is a performance field, no less than athletics or the performing arts. Success is a function of talents (inborn abilities) and skills (acquired competencies). No amount of emotional self-control can turn a person into a successful musician, football player, or trader. _




Incorrect.
I could know absolutely NOTHING about the market at all.
I might know tech/a
I might have absolute faith in tech/a
I might possess extreme discipline from dieting down from 160kgs to 100kgs
I use TT
I make a bundle of money

jog on
d998


----------



## ducati916 (27 December 2006)

> _Myth #2: Anyone, with dedicated effort, can get to the point of trading for a living. That is nonsense._




While I am somewhat of a sceptic, I will also acknowledge that pretty much anyone with *dedicated effort* can get to the point of trading for a living.

Dedicated to amassing enough;
*capital
*knowledge
*psychology
*etc

Brett Steenbarger is the master of the ill-conceived generalization. While the above is not easy, may take quite a length of time, require working a normal job in the early days, nonetheless, it is possible.

jog on
d998


----------



## soultrader (27 December 2006)

ducati916 said:
			
		

> Not any more.
> I used to trade stocks & the NQ contract.





That's what I thought.


Corrections: 

1. TICK fades are not only for scalpers. You obviously do not know how to apply TICK strategies to your trading.
2. TRIN fades? How do you possibly fade a TRIN extreme? I have never heard of anyone fading TRIN's. The trend of the TRIN is the most important. TRIN breakouts from a range is a powerful strategy.
3.The second consideration becomes, how reliable are these internal measuring devices?  Obviously you do not know how to use them. Internals tell me everything I need to know about the short term direction of the markets. 50/50??? Nonsense... more like 8/10.


----------



## ducati916 (27 December 2006)

soultrader said:
			
		

> That's what I thought.
> 
> 
> Corrections:
> ...




As for #2............Well now you have.

As for the rest of your assertions, they are just that assertions.
If you wish to demonstrate your live trading skills, or more to the point the robustness viz 8/10 market internals, feel free to jump on the chat, I'm always up at the market open, and I'll keep you company. 

Any day is fine, just post the date here, and I'll be there baby!

jog on
d998


----------



## soultrader (27 December 2006)

You have fading and breakouts all mixed up. Here are a couple charts I would like to share to make things clear. If you knew how to use market internals properly, 50/50 is just a bunch of nonsense.

*First chart:* This is a chart from yesterday. Internals say alot about the short term direction of the market. I rely on the TICK's alot as this is by far my favorite market internal tool. 




1. Price lifts into value on a positive tick reading at the opening.
2. Volume dries up after the first 60 minutes.
3. In the afernoon, you can anticipate a breakout out of value due to the bullishness in the TICK's. Notice how the TICK's spent almost all its time above the zero line in the morning. You can anticipate a continuation of the trend in the afternoon.

This chart shows how to read TICK's to gauge market direction.

*Second Chart: * Another example of using TICK's to watch for shifts in market sentiment. I use a reference point first to judge whether the market is bullish or bearish. If price is trading below a reference point, a new TICK low adds further confirmation for my bias and a short setup.




*Third Chart:* This is an example of a TICK fade. Works in a rangebound market. In an uptrending market, you do not want to be fading upper TICK extremes. Instead time your entries on a pullback and a lower range TICK fade. Vice versa for a downtrend.

Notice how profitable TICK fades were on this day. *By no means are TICK fades a scalping tecnique.*




*Last Chart:* This is a TRIN *breakout*. Why would you fade TRIN extremes???

A TRIN that is usually caught in a range can offer powerful trading signals on a breakout. I usually like to see TRIN in a range for a minimum of 2 hours.


----------



## ducati916 (27 December 2006)

*soultrader*

First off, none of your charts can be seen [not by myself anyway]
Second off, with daytrading, or any short-term analysis, or any trades really, I am not remotely interested in HINDSIGHT analysis, strange how it always seems to verify previous assertions.

I am interested only in live trades, done, well you know, live.
Anything other than live is just so much bs.

Either trade it live, or, stop wasting my time.

jog on
d998


----------



## Bobby (27 December 2006)

Soultrader those charts you posted are just little red crosses that I can't open  ??


----------



## soultrader (27 December 2006)

Sorry about the charts. I have uploaded them again.

Heres them in order:

Chart 1:





Chart 2: 





Chart 3: 





Chart 4:


----------



## soultrader (27 December 2006)

ducati916 said:
			
		

> *soultrader*
> 
> First off, none of your charts can be seen [not by myself anyway]
> Second off, with daytrading, or any short-term analysis, or any trades really, I am not remotely interested in HINDSIGHT analysis, strange how it always seems to verify previous assertions.
> ...




All the strategies I mentioned are setups I take on a daily basis. I have a handful of intraday setups that I apply to my trading and I take them automatically. 

I also find it hard to discuss any intraday topic to someone who doesnt even day trade. So, yes I am wasting my time and yours. Let's talk again when you are actually day trading.


----------



## onemore (27 December 2006)

Hi Duc

If my memory serves me right you used to make around $3,000.00 a week daytrading.
What were the reasons you stopped daytrading?

cheers


----------



## Bobby (27 December 2006)

Open question for anyone.

Fades on extreme Trin ratio's seems an option, *But* when & why?


----------



## soultrader (27 December 2006)

Bobby said:
			
		

> Open question for anyone.
> 
> Fades on extreme Trin ratio's seems an option, *But* when & why?




There are a few strategies based on fading TRIN extremes. But this is not common. For example if the TRIN closes at extreme readings of 1.5 and above (prefer 1.9-2.0), there is a good possibility that the markets will gap up the next morning. (have tested this out with index futures only) But the best entries are usually in the overnight session when price dips a little more.

Other than that, the TRIN tends to chop around or trend. Unlike the TICK's it doesnt move from one extreme to another. Therefore, TRIN fades can not be utilized like TICK fades. I personally watch the trend of the TRIN closely. 

Once again, these are best to be used as tools for your trading. Setups can be developed but understanding price action is king in my humble opinion. There are days when TICK's are trading above zero but price is declining. Is price lagging the TICK? Or is TICK lagging price? Stick with price... its the only leading indicator. On Dec. 21st, 2006, the index futures declined on a positive TICK reading. This was definitely bearish and once it broke below value the markets went on for a nice downtrend day. 


Chart for Dec. 21st, 2006


----------



## Bobby (28 December 2006)

Soultrader,

Thank you for the example !

Regards Bob.


----------



## It's Snake Pliskin (28 December 2006)

ducati916 said:
			
		

> *soultrader*
> 
> First off, none of your charts can be seen [not by myself anyway]
> Second off, with daytrading, or any short-term analysis, or any trades really, I am not remotely interested in HINDSIGHT analysis, strange how it always seems to verify previous assertions.
> ...




Duc,

Surely some hindsight analysis is ok for an explanation. It's not like we are competing to be super traders by only giving live everything.


----------



## Bobby (28 December 2006)

SoulTrader,

That example with Tick as got to me ~ scarry   

Your preference of seeing a Trin of 1.9 -2.0 before you short~ Wow thats Big bears , can see your reasoning for the gap com'ing.

Bob.


----------



## soultrader (28 December 2006)

Bobby said:
			
		

> SoulTrader,
> 
> That example with Tick as got to me ~ scarry
> 
> ...




Bobby,

It's long not short. The idea behind it is that everyone is short so you go long at the overnight session. A very contrary strategy.


----------



## Bobby (28 December 2006)

soultrader said:
			
		

> Bobby,
> 
> It's long not short. The idea behind it is that everyone is short so you go long at the overnight session. A very contrary strategy.



Hi Soultrader,

I think there is a misunderstanding on when to go short or long , was following your trading plan of never holding overnight.

Not a inverted position   

Cheers Bob.


----------



## Bobby (28 December 2006)

soultrader said:
			
		

> I had little success day trading stocks. I wasnt losing money but I wasnt finding success. I was still a rookie trader when I started playing with stocks and I spent a good amount of time scanning stocks. I was also severly distracted by Level 2 market maker games.
> .




Soultrader,

If you were to trade the ASX again with your knowledge now, what hints would you give to Aussie  day trader please ? 

Cheers


----------



## soultrader (28 December 2006)

Bobby said:
			
		

> Hi Soultrader,
> 
> I think there is a misunderstanding on when to go short or long , was following your trading plan of never holding overnight.
> 
> ...





Good point Bobby. But whenever I see TRIN extremes, I just have to hold overnight. I exit at premarket so Im only holding for several hours. But I guess this would be the only exception


----------



## soultrader (28 December 2006)

Bobby said:
			
		

> Soultrader,
> 
> If you were to trade the ASX again with your knowledge now, what hints would you give to Aussie  day trader please ?
> 
> Cheers




I come from a poker backgroun so it has helped me tremendously in trading. I dont want you to take this as a legitimate advice but I'll tell you what has worked for me.

*Soul searching* I really dug deep into my own psychology and compared it with what I was doing right in poker and applied it to my trading. I realized that in poker (I play tournaments only) I will wait for other players to make mistakes. Its a game of patience and knowing when to push hard. I took this concept to trading and realized that a few high probability setups will earn you a decent living. 

So I really worked hard to develop setups based on my trading style. So I focus on setups only. I think its very important you find your trading style... whether its a revised version of other's ppl's methodology or something you worked hard to create. You need to find something you feel absolutely comfortable with.

Secondly, once you find your style of trading.. become an expert in it. Whether you are pivot based, fibs based, market profile, or indicator based.... be the best trader you can be using that methodology. Find an edge in your trading.

Third, for starters specialize. Understand your own psychology and find a market you feel right for you. You might have the trader quality in you but you might be trading the wrong market. Understand the personality of the market. Specialize, specialize, specialize. Be the expert trader in the certain market. 

Fourth, experience. Experience is the only teacher in this game. All the books you read arent going to help you without experience. Education is definitely important. I initially read over 100 trading books before I started trading. And guess what? I lost money my first year. 

I wont even get into risk tolerance or money management.. im sure youve heard this over and over.


----------



## Bobby (28 December 2006)

soultrader said:
			
		

> I come from a poker backgroun so it has helped me tremendously in trading. I dont want you to take this as a legitimate advice but I'll tell you what has worked for me.
> 
> *Soul searching* I really dug deep into my own psychology and compared it with what I was doing right in poker and applied it to my trading. I realized that in poker (I play tournaments only) I will wait for other players to make mistakes. Its a game of patience and knowing when to push hard. I took this concept to trading and realized that a few high probability setups will earn you a decent living.
> 
> ...



Thank you James,

I do need to be a *specialist* in one area   

That was a top post !
Bob.


----------



## ducati916 (28 December 2006)

onemore said:
			
		

> Hi Duc
> 
> If my memory serves me right you used to make around $3,000.00 a week daytrading.
> What were the reasons you stopped daytrading?
> ...




Actually more like $3000+/day...............but that of course was if it was a profitable day.

Over 10 months, all trades posted live, I returned 81% unleveraged or 324% leveraged. My success rate was 50/50, winning trades on aggregate returned 1.5% and losing trades 0.5%

Why did I stop?
Because I hit a psychological barrier with the amount of money.
At the maximum, I traded 40 NQ contracts at $10/tick each tick +/-$400
This was seriously stressful, and I simply burned out.

*soultrader*



> _I also find it hard to discuss any intraday topic to someone who doesnt even day trade. So, yes I am wasting my time and yours. Let's talk again when you are actually day trading.
> ___________________




Excuses.

I have said on this thread, I am willing to daytrade live, anytime.
I have no trouble actually trading live rather than just talking about historical charts in HINDSIGHT.

This I find time and again is the classic get out, post a bunch of hindsight trades, indicate in hindsight where you made great decisions, and give it large to daytrader wannabe's, who are actively seeking confirmation of their inherent bias that daytrading is glamourous, profitable, pseudo-scientific relying on *market internals* indicators etc.

They are all 50/50
See how you already contradict yourself;



> _2. TRIN fades? How do you possibly fade a TRIN extreme? I have never heard of anyone fading TRIN's. The trend of the TRIN is the most important. TRIN breakouts from a range is a powerful strategy._






> _There are a few strategies based on fading TRIN extremes. But this is not common. For example if the TRIN closes at extreme readings of 1.5 and above (prefer 1.9-2.0), there is a good possibility that the markets will gap up the next morning. (have tested this out with index futures only) But the best entries are usually in the overnight session when price dips a little more._




This next one is a classic, as of course TRIN does oscillate, it just depends on the timeframe you place it in. I used a 30min TRIN chart, and this most definitely had extremes. So nonsense my freind.



> _Other than that, the TRIN tends to chop around or trend. Unlike the TICK's it doesnt move from one extreme to another. Therefore, TRIN fades can not be utilized like TICK fades. I personally watch the trend of the TRIN closely. _




But to summarize;
All talk, no walk.

jog on
d998


----------



## ducati916 (28 December 2006)

soultrader said:
			
		

> Bobby,
> 
> It's long not short. The idea behind it is that everyone is short so you go long at the overnight session. A very contrary strategy.




What a peanut.
This sounds like...................fading the TRIN

jog on
d998


----------



## ducati916 (28 December 2006)

It's Snake Pliskin said:
			
		

> Duc,
> 
> Surely some hindsight analysis is ok for an explanation. It's not like we are competing to be super traders by only giving live everything.




Actually I disagree.
Daytrading is about pressure, and pretty quick decisions, you don't really have the luxuary of thinking too much.

Hindsight trades when based on historical analysis muddy the water further by implying that your success or failure resides in the analysis of the market internals, or $Flow, or pivot points.

If these *indicators* truely were 8/10, daytrading would be so easy, it would be like falling off a log. Unfortunately, they are fraught with false positives, false negatives etc and = 50/50

These market internals are not secret, they have been around for a while, and have their fans.........hell I'm a fan, I used them all the time, and they are 50/50

As previously stated, successful daytrading resides in the trader.
The trader makes any methodology a success, or a failure.
Daytrading is playing emotional Russian Roulette. The loaded gun will either make you, or break you.

How many *traders* stepped up to trade live?

Two.
Myself & tech/a

Why is that?
Here you have a guy claiming 8/10 for chrissakes...............step up baby.
8/10 you can't fail.........that is the holy grail.

What do I get?
Excuses, waffle & contradiction and the "you're not a daytrader, so, you wouldn't understand" ploy



> _I also find it hard to discuss any intraday topic to someone who doesnt even day trade. So, yes I am wasting my time and yours. Let's talk again when you are actually day trading._




My trades are listed live baby........winners, losers, and everything inbetween.
http://lightning.he.net/cgi-bin/suid/~reefcap/ultimatebb.cgi?ubb=get_topic;f=8;t=000294
http://lightning.he.net/cgi-bin/suid/~reefcap/ultimatebb.cgi?ubb=get_topic;f=8;t=000313

Same two I posted earlier on this thread, but I've another 80 odd.

In summary, hindsight, in daytrading is simply posturing.
Daytrading is ALL ABOUT doing it, not talking about it.

jog on
d998


----------



## tech/a (28 December 2006)

*Ease up Duc.*

This is how forums lose quality posters.

Fast to critisise slow to analyse.

*There is a vast cavern between knowledge and the application of knowledge.*


----------



## spitrader1 (28 December 2006)

ducati916 said:
			
		

> Actually I disagree.
> Daytrading is about pressure, and pretty quick decisions, you don't really have the luxuary of thinking too much.
> 
> Hindsight trades when based on historical analysis muddy the water further by implying that your success or failure resides in the analysis of the market internals, or $Flow, or pivot points.
> ...




Just so you know as well, and euler and professor frink will vouch for this, I have posted live trades many times on the SPI.


----------



## ducati916 (28 December 2006)

tech/a said:
			
		

> *Ease up Duc.*
> 
> This is how forums lose quality posters.
> 
> ...




What is a tangible *edge* in daytrading?
Zero brokerage
Bucketloads of leverage

Intangible edges;
Psychological compatibility to required actions
Risk manager overseeing your trades, who will yank you if you start to break the rules.........viz. overtrade.

How many home based traders have access to the above?
Not many.

The myth that is constantly propagated is one of the edge residing within the analysis tools that can be utilised, just pure nonsense.

The way to dispell that myth, is simply to have someone, who claims an analysis edge, to demonstrate that edge..............not in hindsight, but, at the coalface.

What becomes almost immediately apparent, is that risk managemet, and rock solid discipline are the daytraders road to profit.

Of course, when asked to demonstrate, there is that vast sound of SILENCE.

jog on
d998


----------



## It's Snake Pliskin (28 December 2006)

ducati916 said:
			
		

> Actually I disagree.
> Daytrading is about pressure, and pretty quick decisions, you don't really have the luxuary of thinking too much.
> 
> Hindsight trades when based on historical analysis muddy the water further by implying that your success or failure resides in the analysis of the market internals, or $Flow, or pivot points.
> ...




*Duc*,

You need to chill for a few seconds my peanut. Total nonsense, it aint a competition.
Attention everybody else,

Please feel free to give hindsight analysis for the purposes of explaining strategies, tactics etc.


----------



## It's Snake Pliskin (28 December 2006)

ducati916 said:
			
		

> Intangible edges;
> Psychological compatibility to required actions
> Risk manager overseeing your trades, who will yank you if you start to break the rules.........viz. overtrade.
> 
> ...




If one needs a risk manager they shouldn't be trading - simple.


----------



## ducati916 (28 December 2006)

It's Snake Pliskin said:
			
		

> *Duc*,
> 
> You need to chill for a few seconds my peanut. Total nonsense, it aint a competition.
> Attention everybody else,
> ...




But that is where you are incorrect.
Daytrading is competition.
You are competing against the market, in a very intense, compact timeframe.
Everyday that you trade, you have to be up for it.
If you are not, you will be carried out on your wallet.

That is where you win or lose, are you a tough competitor?
Forget your analysis, any analysis can work, or fail.
Can you hack it psychologically is the question?
Can you lose, get your **** kicked, and come back for more, everyday?

Hence my flogging the dead horse, of, walk the talk.

jog on
d998


----------



## It's Snake Pliskin (28 December 2006)

ducati916 said:
			
		

> But that is where you are incorrect.
> Daytrading is competition.
> You are competing against the market, in a very intense, compact timeframe.
> Everyday that you trade, you have to be up for it.
> ...




But these are not the points of interest that were disputed by you. Your dispute was regarding TRIN, then you give lectures that one can't explain in hindsight and go off waffling about day trading being a competition. Incoherent dribble displaying your very BIG chip on your shoulder.

This is a forum. We use it to help impart knowledge not compete with one another. I agree trading live is the way *to show how successful * a strategy, or one, is, but hindsight analysis is good *to show what it is*. As tech pointed out there is a big difference.

I am not playing baby!

Show us some of those LIVE trades baby and see if you can walk the talk


----------



## joslad (28 December 2006)

tech/a said:
			
		

> *Ease up Duc.*
> 
> This is how forums lose quality posters.
> 
> Fast to critisise slow to analyse.




Couldn't agree more!  Pity to see your thread hijacked in this way tech/a.  

I was keen to observe a few live trades - may have even posted up a few of my own if things had gone positively "with posts within this thread".  But experience has shown me that it's stressful enough daytrading, without adding to that stress by making it all public and having to then put up with the knockers and self-appointed guru's who jump in with enthusiastic glee when trades go wrong.  So why bother.

Once posters start resorting to the personal attacks on others then I usually stop reading the thread.  I should think most others have probably abandoned this one already by now.  Damn pity!

Time for someone to take a chill pill....


----------



## ducati916 (28 December 2006)

Well the fantasy artists are quite welcome to the thread.
If you feel that analysis in hindsight will reveal the road to profitability within the daytrading paradigm........more power.

jog on
d998


----------



## barney (28 December 2006)

joslad said:
			
		

> Couldn't agree more!  Pity to see your thread hijacked in this way tech/a.
> 
> I was keen to observe a few live trades - may have even posted up a few of my own if things had gone positively "with posts within this thread".  But experience has shown me that it's stressful enough daytrading, without adding to that stress by making it all public and having to then put up with the knockers and self-appointed guru's who jump in with enthusiastic glee when trades go wrong.  So why bother.
> 
> ...




Howdy Jos,   actually I think you (or anyone else ) posting their live trades is a great idea (regardless of whether they are successful or not )   ......... I actually firmly believe you (I) learn far more from your unsuccessful trades than you ever learn from the "good" ones.                 

As for the "hindsight problem" ........... If the trade was originally made, I don't see a problem with posting it after the event so to speak ........... the lesson will still be there so long as the explanation for "why the trade was entered/exited etc etc. is included ............. so please, anyone, post your live, or past trades up so the "knowledgeable" lads around here can adjudicate on where they went wrong/hopefully right!! ............... 

After all, this forum is about learning/helping isn't it???? If anyone is posting with any other motive other than to teach/help/learn, or educate, then perhaps they should question their own motives as to why they are posting in the first place????     

PS I make no judgement on anyone here, because everyone is a) Different, and b) dealing with their own personal demons re life in general, so PLEASE guys,. lets cut the "personal" digs/attacks/ego satisfying posts and simply enjoy each others difference of opinion/right to disagree etc   

I hope that ramble makes sense, cause this thread has great potential.  All the best, Barney.


----------



## It's Snake Pliskin (29 December 2006)

ducati916 said:
			
		

> Well the fantasy artists are quite welcome to the thread.
> If you feel that analysis in hindsight will reveal the road to profitability within the daytrading paradigm........more power.
> 
> jog on
> d998




Whatever, you can't distinguish proof and description so your credibility is shot. As far as fantasy artists, coming from a burnt out day trader.......

The daytrading paradigm is different for all. I've got bigger balls than you Duc, and yes i have had something to drink. 
I'll PM you in the new year baby. All the best.
Snake


----------



## happytrader (29 December 2006)

Mr Duc

Your posts give the impression of a very domineering, combative and aggressive, personality, yet your fundamental positions II thread suggests the extreme opposite of a very passive martyr like approach. Do you actually know who you are?

It appears your battle like the rest of us is within.

Cheers
Happytrader


----------



## Bobby (29 December 2006)

happytrader said:
			
		

> It appears your battle like the rest of us is within.




Hello Happytrader,

I felt a a cold shiver run through me on reading that !

Notice how the market will find your inner flaws    

Bob.


----------



## ducati916 (29 December 2006)

happytrader said:
			
		

> Mr Duc
> 
> Your posts give the impression of a very domineering, combative and aggressive, personality, yet your fundamental positions II thread suggests the extreme opposite of a very passive martyr like approach. Do you actually know who you are?
> 
> ...




A fundamental approach, or strategy, is an exercise amongst otherthings, in patience. With confidence in ones analysis or ability. Ignoring the short term market swings, ignoring the daytrading herds driven by price swings, and waiting for the fundamental value to establish itself.

Daytrading however is an aggressive undertaking.
You have to aggressively manage your positions, cutting losses at the earliest possible moment, hanging onto winners as long as possible, without giving too much back.

It may take 3/4 entries being whipsawed, to finally get onto a trend that gives you profit. All those lovely hindsight charts don't reveal the multiple whipsaws to enter, and hold the entry, it just shows, the oh so easy points at which you would of course have entered.

But you guys want the dream. More power.

jog on
d998


----------



## Bobby (4 January 2007)

ducati916 said:
			
		

> Daytrading however is an aggressive undertaking.
> You have to aggressively manage your positions, cutting losses at the earliest possible moment, hanging onto winners as long as possible, without giving too much back.
> 
> It may take 3/4 entries being whipsawed, to finally get onto a trend that gives you profit. All those lovely hindsight charts don't reveal the multiple whipsaws to enter, and hold the entry, it just shows, the oh so easy points at which you would of course have entered.



Duc those very short (timeframe) whipsaws have always mesmerised me, they're not all natural are they   

I'm sure you know what I mean.

Bob.


----------

