# LYC - Lynas Rare Earths



## nioka

Lynas's Mt Weld project, could have up to 30% of the worlds supply of Rare Earth deposits. Development now under way in association with a Chinese Consortium. Watch this one go.....


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## nioka

Today's announcement. "proposed malaysian processing plant enhances Mt Weld rare earth projects"

Key points. 

Proposed new location decreases project risk and offers enhansed project returns. 
Malasyian "Strategic Pioneer Status" likely, with 10 year tax free period.
Excellent site identified with required infrastructure, public utilities and established manufacturers of key reagents

Chairman " The opportunity afforded by relocating to Malaysiais strategically and financially compelling. The financial benefit is of such a quantum that revision to our initial stratagy was essential.
I have been told ( Hope this isn't against your new rules Joe) by a very reliable source, that they have to be in mining production by mid 07.


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## new girl

Hi nioka

More info (not ramping) I have about LYC, hope it helps.

Mt. Weld’s Rare Earth deposits estimates 7.7 million tones @ 11.9% Rare Earth Oxides.Initial planned production is 10,500 tonnes p.a. to be increased to 15,000 tpa. $75 million through conv. notes and share placement were raised recently to fund the project.

Risk? key technologies may be superseded by technology that does not need Rare Earth elements. The global demand for Rare Earth oxides is at 100,000 tonnes per year, up 8% on last year. The company has potential to supply up to 25% of the world market.

Currently China produces 97% of global market and management has strong connections in China.

The company pays no dividend as all earnings go back into growth and exploration.

Demand forecast at 140,000 tonnes per year in 2010 and prices to US $12/kg by then.


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## rub92me

First: can some moderator move this thread please to Stocks I-P.

The way I read the announcement, the move to Malaysia is a bit of a mixed blessing:
Reduced project risk and better NPV, however 6 months delay in getting processing operational, which will defer the income.
Another potential threat to the success of this enterprise is existing stock piles (already mined) of rare earth in the US. Once the price goes high enough it may become economical to bring that on the market, which can be done quite quickly.
Another Australian small cap with (lower grade) rare earth prospects: ALK.


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## nioka

An interesting update on Lynas is available on their latest quarterly update. Progress will be delayed but they seem to have good reasons for the altered plans which should have long term benefit.


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## nioka

Lynas will benefit from todays announcement by China of an export tariff on their rare earths which was done to protect the increasingly short supply in China.( China currently produces 85% of the world supply.)


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## nioka

Lynas has been one of the successful stocks I hold for this year going from 15c at the start of the year to a years high of 50c today. 07 should be as kind with production due to start mid year. Not one for the day trader but I have found it a good investment.


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## nioka

This one will be worth watching today


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## mmmmining

nioka said:
			
		

> This one will be worth watching today



A bit of worry about the price patten. No news, but big price and volume rise in a thin trading environment. Typical stock manipulation patten. It is lucky that LYC has not get a speed ticket yet.

I believe the long term fundamental is excellent, It is one of a very few producers for rare earth elements outside China, and the price is rising slowly but steady. Plus the rare metal resources.


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## siempre33

'07 production? 

it is my understanding mning avtivities will commence in early 07 but the ore will be stockpiled and mill operations will commence by mid 08, but the Taipei group feel it can get to over 3 bucks by summer so maybe an event such as early production will occur, myself i can`t see that price for this stock I`m looking at a cash flow range of 25 to 50 cents once production is full gear and dependant on pricing on today's prices 25 seems reasonable however a shortfall for rem`s is forecast so a good chance the price rises, at 25 cents cash flow however i see no reason the share price can`t double from here in 12 to 18 months....

I've owned shares only a short time, buying LYSCF at .43....that's the OTC symbol for LYC....I'm located in California in case anyone wonders....it is nice to find this forum, as I am interested in several other Oz stocks....SMM, MMN, ZFX, PDN, ROC, MTN, et al.....G'day...


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## nioka

siempre33 said:
			
		

> '07 production?
> 
> it is my understanding mning avtivities will commence in early 07 but the ore will be stockpiled and mill operations will commence by mid 08, ..



Original arrangements were to mine the ore and ship to China for processing, which was to commence 07. The shift to Malasia necessitated the building of a new processing plant. This delayed eventual processing. I have been told that the conditions of the mining lease required a start to mining by a particular time, so the mining will commence and the ore stockpiled ready for processing at a later date. As LYC own the only sizeable deposits of rare earths outside China I believe this will be a good Company in my investment portfolio. I'm not expecting a sudden increase in SP but a reasonable one over time. ( It has already done that for me - over 100% in less that a year and increasing about 60% since I introduced it to this forum.)
 Welcome to ASF. I hope you find it as interesting and helpful as I have found it.


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## siempre33

Thanx nioka!

I share your view about the gradual appreciation in share price....
when actual profits start to hit the bottom line it's "kitty-bar-the-door" as they say....well...somebody, somewhere, sometime...said it...LOL..


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## nioka

LYC has been able to steadly rise despite the fact that it's largest shareholder, Ospraie Management has sold around 3.5 million shares through the market in the last 3 weeks. If they keep selling it will not help but they are not flooding the market. When they stop selling we should get another spurt on. The shares are at an all time high and have good buyer support.


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## nioka

SP continues to rise with the price going past the 60c mark with good volume and fairly large parcels. This one is performing according to the information I had been given months ago. Serious investors should have this one on their watch list.


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## HRL

This looks to be a good longterm prospect.  Just been reading through this thread and a couple of other places. Found a good stock watch report from my NAB trading info dated Dec 06. Some points I noted... 

Management led by Nick Curtis (ex. Macquarie Bank & Sino Gold) also Jake Klein & David Davidson from Sino Gold with Curtis in particular holding a lot of LYC stock & options.

Global demand for rare earths expected to grow by 10% per annum while the worlds biggest producer (China) is having their exports restricted as well as losing VAT rebates and gaining a 10% tax.  LYC are sitting in the wings as the only commercially viable deposit outside China and one of the lowest-cost producers in the world (though they haven't produced anything yet?).

Key action of the last 12mths for LYC is seen as the call to move the planned China plant to Malaysia which will save approx 27% in present costs, be tax free for 10yrs and have no restrictions on exporting.  This has obviously pushed back production dates though the longterm benefits are sound.

Having transformed from a development phase into implementation they have already signed a longterm material supply contract with French chemical company Rhodia.

Looking at the charts... trading volume has picked up over the past year, last 6mths in particular and sp pushing up to it's all time highs of late '03 but there looks to be more substance to the climb now.

With all this going on the sp has climbed from .15 to .60 without the company actually producing anything.  When Malaysia is fully operational (late '08), the China restrictions kicking in and overall market growth/demand LYC could be looking pretty good.  

What do we reckon on timeframes?  18mths-2yrs?  My guess is the sp will move gradually (in either direction) for the next while as the biggest changes have already happened until they are ready to produce & supply.  That said, the entire resources sector will be interesting to watch over the next couple of years as there are no shortage of predictions about this sector.

One other thing... safety concerns.  Rare earths are difficult and dangerous to mine.  There is a history of environmental concerns around mining and production of rare earths (radiation etc.) and with a completely new operation being built any safety or environmental problems will no doubt dent investor confidence.  People don't tend to forget radiation scares in developed countries!


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## mmmmining

HRL said:
			
		

> One other thing... safety concerns.  Rare earths are difficult and dangerous to mine.  There is a history of environmental concerns around mining and production of rare earths (radiation etc.) and with a completely new operation being built any safety or environmental problems will no doubt dent investor confidence.  People don't tend to forget radiation scares in developed countries!




HRL, thanks for the report. I believe LYC's deposit is belong to low radiation category.

Also, it has a huge deposit of RARE METAL group of minerals, could be huge potential after the production of RARE EARTH minerals.


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## nioka

HRL said:
			
		

> One other thing... safety concerns.  Rare earths are difficult and dangerous to mine.  There is a history of environmental concerns around mining and production of rare earths (radiation etc.) and with a completely new operation being built any safety or environmental problems will no doubt dent investor confidence.  People don't tend to forget radiation scares in developed countries!



The type of rare earths to be mined by LYC are not dangerously radioactive. The concentration and extraction will be carried out in Malaysia. (Rare earts occur as a component of monazite which is present in the mineral sands on most of our beaches; doesn't stop us enjoying the beaches.)
They don't have the same problems as uranium have.


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## HRL

Ok thanks I wasn't sure.  Being in the low radiation category kinda makes sense.  I can't imagine Malaysia being so welcoming if they thought they could be on the nasty end of an enviro disaster!

Any thoughts on timing for this one?  They have been exploring for years (14?) and nobody doubts the quality or quantity of their reserves but getting it to market is the key.  They are clearly on the right track now and movement in the sp this past 12mths has been impressive but I don't see much more significant change until they are getting ready to produce... some further ann's about the deposits, production facility & supply deals will help of course but I expect the serious money will want to see the whole thing pull together efficiently before they jump on board.

Speaking of getting the goods to market... the geographical aspects of this company and it's biggest target market look great.  Mining in Australia, producing in Malaysia with the vast majority of the technology manufacturing sector in Asia - all very warm & cosy.  With rising transport costs only likely to keep heading north any companies that need to shift their cargo too far around the world will be bleeding through their walets.

Go LYC!! (and hurry up please  )


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## nioka

Processing product wiull not commence until 2H2008. The processing was originally to commence in China in 2H2007 but the move to Malaysia meant a processing plant had to be built. Hence the delay, although it will mean better returns in the long run.


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## nioka

Big trading here today. One trade alone was 355000 shares. Total so far for today 8,695,114 @ 63.5c. Looks as if there will be another "substancial holding" notice again shortly. This isn't day trader buying.


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## siempre33

Nioka, I really love the great info on this forum, so much so that I copy some of your posts and paste them up @ Stockhouse.com 

I might pick LYC in the contest, if it isn't taken, although I'm discovering several others I like, such as Oilex, Summit, et al....


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## nioka

siempre33 said:
			
		

> Nioka, I really love the great info on this forum, so much so that I copy some of your posts and paste them up @ Stockhouse.com
> 
> I might pick LYC in the contest, if it isn't taken, although I'm discovering several others I like, such as Oilex, Summit, et al....



The reason I don't pick a stock like LYC in the comp is that it is a stock which will not double in value in a month but will be a steady rising stock. The comp is a win big or lose job. It doesn't mean I don't count it as one of my best.


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## siempre33

Nioka, thanx for your reply...
I sent an email to the co., now awaiting reply, but not holding my breath for a response....

re: OTC listing of LYSCF....this only would be of interest to Norteamericanos...


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## nioka

LYC reached a new high again today. There was considerable volume 6,902,217 shares traded.I'm waiting for a "substsntial holding notice" which will let us know where the shares are going. The company, in it's latest report, stated that the shares are being traded in significant quantities on the US market. The trading is not through official company listing but rather "over the counter" through the grey market. See www.pinksheets.com. The share ticker is LYSCF. There could be some interesting developments with this one.


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## mmmmining

I think all the shares went to USA. They they have some chips to run pinksheet.


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## nioka

mmmmining said:
			
		

> I think all the shares went to USA. They they have some chips to run pinksheet.



Pink slip sales show only 541,340 with last sale @0.54(us$) that would be yesterday in USA. Pink slip sales do not show in ASX figures. A portion of todays sales on ASX could be resold with pink slips tonight our time. It will take a lot to work this one out.


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## nioka

If you do not follow this one today could be a good day to start. It will kick off at an all time high with further interest from USA.


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## nioka

According to reports the selling off of 7,519,000 shares by Ospraie Management, a substantial holder of LYC, is a factor preventing a better share price. They are not selling at a rate to oversupply but the amount of sales by the must be having a dampening effect. Even with this happening the SP is still on the up.
Am I the only one following this, can anyone supply some more info on the subject.
Sales last night on pinksheets in the USA of 839,234 shares @55c (USD) up 1c


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## siempre33

Hi Nioka, 
US interest has been mostly coming via a reco. by The Oxford Club, an investment subscription service which is quite influential....thus the heavy increase in volume lately...

http://www.oxfordclub.com/


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## siempre33

"..I might pick LYC in the contest.."

actually, I picked Gippsland, a virtual unknown....they will probably remain an unknown, and I'll end up in last place, so it's a long, long, shot......


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## nioka

Sales in the USA on pinksheets continued on Friday with 755,290 shares traded. Closing price up 1c to 57c(USD). I had expected these stocks to trade sideways until closer to production. The world shortage of rare earths and China's restrictions on exports is certainly having a positive effect on LYC


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## nioka

Osprey management continue their sales of LYC shares with another 2,850,000 sold in the past week according to their announcement. Considering their volume of selling the price is holding. Sales in the USA on the pink sheets continue at reasonable levels and help maintain the interest in this stock.


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## purple

Yep, LYC is holding despite the large volume sell-off - a sign of investor faith, i'm sure??  oh well, i'm not selling anytime soon. There's still a lot more in this stock to come.


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## nioka

It would be worthwhile reading the Investor presentation put out by LYC in an announcement today and backed up with an upgrade by Westpac. Too much to try and post here. Interesting information which backs up all I have previously posted here.


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## purple

Yeah, Nioka, read the report already but I was actually hoping for a more technical report on the progress of their set up in Malaysia and their Mt. Weld mine...don't want any Cameco-style horror stories to crop up just when the flowers are beginning to bud.

Could you tell me where I could find the Westpac analysis? Thanks.

I'm trying to wean myself off Analysts' Predictions - been following them a bit too religiously in the past. sometimes the analysis is given on the back of buying the same stock themselves...neo insider trading.

But still, it's worth running behind the big boys...they have their crystal balls floating on a sea of their own cash.


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## nioka

purple said:
			
		

> Yeah, Nioka, read the report already but I was actually hoping for a more technical report on the progress of their set up in Malaysia and their Mt. Weld mine...don't want any Cameco-style horror stories to crop up just when the flowers are beginning to bud.
> 
> Could you tell me where I could find the Westpac analysis? Thanks.



Available on Westpac broking website.Company research LYC. If you are not a westpac customer it can be accessed as a trial run.


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## purple

Thanks Nioka. I went to have a look at the website some days ago but got a bit lost, I'll have another go at it somewhere soon.


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## nioka

Lynas continue to set new highs in trading both on the pink sheet trading and again today on the ASX. The half year accounts published yesterday confirm the companies sound financial position. Considering the size of the company the volume of trading is considerable. If the volume on the sellers side falls off the price should improve further and as each day passes we are a day closer to production. This one is proving to be a great investment showing over 100% return on my outlay to date.


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## nioka

In another notice of a change in substantial holding Osprey mgnt have advised of the sale of another 5.2 million shares. That brings a total of approx 18 million sold through the market this year. Their selling must be holding the market back to an extent. When their sell off finishes we could see steeper rises in the SP.


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## purple

...and as expected the sell off knocked the LYC price down a bit. I was curious to see whether the Ospraie sell off effect would be similar to past ones, since it's been done a few too many times.

maybe too many techies been selling off, the 21/2 charts weren't showing obvious sell signals but i guess it was good enough profit. 

oh well...maybe a good time to pick up a few more.

followed with interest the fortunes of ARU, the other one with RE mining. 2 things came to mind :
1. typical Ex-Date sell off 
2. 100% bull-uranium investors (hence bear-everything else) fleeing the more RE inclined ARU

ARU has a sizeable RE deposit, but I favoured LYC over them as they only come into production in 2010, anything can change in a matter of years. at least LYC is up and running already, producing by 2008.

but don't forget, the race is on. no one's gonna sit down and let the Chinese (or ones like Nicky who are ol' buddies with them) create an RE cartel. already GWG is on Hoidas Lake and Avalon on Thor Lake over in North America..

GWG is coming onto the market alredy on 2008.

c'mon LYC!!


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## nioka

I wouldn't be worried about today's minor reversal. I'm surprised there has been such good buying support considering the osprey sell down. There are always plenty of profit takers come in when a share has risen so fast but the trend is there and I'm sure it will continue. This is now a stock for investors rather than the traders.


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## purple

Yea...export quotas due to be released in China after the Chinese New Year   

nothing like fresh reminders to purchasers of RE that this is scarce stuff...


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## siempre33

RE: OTC pink sheets listing....

I talked with my Scottrade broker, who said the only two ways for a co. to be listed is through either a bank or a broker....

we know that very influential banks are financing Lynas, such as GoldmanSachs and JPMorganChase, so it would not be difficult to conclude that one of them has sponsored/initiated the listing through one of their brokers in the US....


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## purple

i find that LYC's sp movements in the OTC and ASX move in a very loosely similar fashion.

but it would be foolish to try to link the 2 markets' movements due to the differential economical and contextual pressures. (learnt this the hard way trying to read into the 2 markets of other dual listed stocks last time).   

RSI's showing significantly higher volume from 6 months ago.


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## nioka

siempre33 said:
			
		

> RE: OTC pink sheets listing....
> 
> I talked with my Scottrade broker, who said the only two ways for a co. to be listed is through either a bank or a broker....
> 
> we know that very influential banks are financing Lynas, such as GoldmanSachs and JPMorganChase, so it would not be difficult to conclude that one of them has sponsored/initiated the listing through one of their brokers in the US....



That makes sense of the sell down by Ospraie management who I believe are an american investment firm and they use or are associated with J P Morgan. I guess the sell down of LYC  by ospraie is being made through sales made on pink sheets. I have been discounting the volume of LYC trades allowing for double trading with purchases on the ASX being resold on pinksheets. This is probably not the case and the pinksheet volume is possibly from ospraie. 
The SP has rebounded today. If incandescent light bulbs are on the way out then rare earths will be needed all the more.


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## nioka

Despite the shakeout, the price of LYC on pinksheets held steady last night. I believe todays fall on the ASX offers a good entry price. The companies plans have not changed and there are no more, or no less, rare earths around today than there were yesterday so there is no reason for lesser value in LYC.


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## purple

Recently I wrote a quick note for someone asking questions about LYC, and I used a portion of  Paul Getty’s  Ten Questions To Ask When Evaluating A Stock Purchase to dissect LYC. Just thought that I’d copy and paste it here, to see if you guys agree /disagree. Of course it might not be too relevant, the 10 questions as it refers more to established companies having PEs, but still it provided me some brain workout in getting the stock to face up to some questions.  As usual, disclaimer : these are only my own thoughts. 

let's get the basics out of the way :

*THE GOOD*
	LYC owns the Mt. Weld mine 
LYC has money to build the processing factory in Malaysia and has proceeding
	LYC signed contract with Rhodia (French chemical company) as an 'anchor' customer. 
	RE price is expected to inrease. 
	RE demand is expected to increase. REs are used in environmentally 
friendly products (hybrid cars) and high technology stuff like Ipods,
MP3s, flat panel screens etc, which are all high demand products.
	LYC's mine, Mt Weld, has the highest grade RE in the world
	LYC has strong contacts with China. Nick Curtis the Exec Chairman, founded Sino Gold, which is a Sydney based company doing mining in China.
	major shareholders include Goldman Sachs (15.4%) and JP Morgan (7.2%)
	Production of RE will start in mid 2008.
	China, world’s 90% producer of RE’s, has imposed a quota on RE production to control prices

*THE BAD*

	RE market is very small.
	Other RE miners are starting to come up (but they are only exploring)
	US has stockpiled RE, just in case China plays too much with the price and it's too expensive to keep buying from China. US has 1 mine which could be brought into production again if prices go too high for the mineral at the moment. 
	LYC is 100% RE mining. If a cheaper alternative suddenly appears, the whole RE sector might collapse and LYC goes bankrupt.


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## purple

1. “What is the company’s history: Is it a solid and reputable firm, and does it have able, efficient and seasoned management?”  

Prior to LYC, the chairman Nick Curtis founded Sino Gold and headed it for 5 years till end 2005. 
Check the Sino Gold (SGX) share price from 2000 – 2005. it soared to a high and then dropped. I tried to get to the bottom of this, to find the reasons. Gold price steadily increased from 2000-05, so that wouldn’t be a factor in the share price drop.  I checked the management progress – from 00 – 05, there was strategic and strong expansion, from having a mine in 00, they moved forward to enter into 2 good joint ventures and finally brought SGX into construction of a new mine (Jin Feng).
Huntley’s recommendation for SGX from 2004 – 2005 gradually moved from Avoid to Hold to Accumulate.
SGX started from a dollar stock and is now a strong $7 stock.
Jacob Klein and Ivo Polovineo are still with Sino Gold.  Strength of contacts with China might prove decisive in this junior miner, as China dominates this industry, and LYC uses Chinese technology (the new factory in Malaysia is basically the original one designed for China, and staff are sourced from China as there is a shortage of rare earth knowledgeable staff in other countries).
With China having such a strong control of the market, the reins of pricing manipulations / stock supplies could be said to be right in their hands. Knowing the Chinese and their appetite for money, the LYC board members having strong relationships with the Chinese should be counted as a plus point.  Still, with China now in WTO, LYC’s RE produce would be somewhat better protected from manipulation by China. Either way, I think LYC has the upper hand. 
the gold mining in China was written in 2004 by Huntleys as ‘potentially rewarding’. I gather that the founder Nick Curtis must have some kind of foresight to search for potential and unlock it. Same situation that we have right now in LYC. LYC  was recommended by Huntleys early on as ‘Avoid’ and gradually has been upgraded to ‘Hold’ and ‘Accumulate’. History is not a good support to lean on in the share market, but I do wager my bucks on the man Nick Curtis to again see into the future and start the ball rolling.


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## purple

2. “Is the company producing or dealing in goods or services for which there will be a continuing demand in the foreseeable future?”  

RE is used in technology of the future. It all might be fine to flip through (actually click through) the glossy brochures in the LYC website, the research done by BCC, BD, Patersons, Austock, Huntleys and so much is said about its demand.  But the proof that there will be huge demand for REs would be in the way the world thinks, and subsequently the world market movements. If you scan through the world news, you will notice that there are quiet, but very steady and inexorable moves towards high technology that limit use on unrenewable and polluting resources such as fuel, coal, and also the need for energy conservation.

It’s all around us – new houses in Australia having to submit energy ratings, white good appliances having energy ratings etc.. 
Here are some news articles :
Australian Gov phasing out standard light bulbs by 2015(high energy wastage); to change to compact fluorescent bulbs (which use RE)
http://www.smh.com.au/news/environm...-bulbs-turnbull/2007/02/20/1171733741221.html

EU bans NiCd batteries beginning 2010 (toxic); to change to NiMh batteries (which use RE):
http://www.planetark.com/avantgo/dailynewsstory.cfm?newsid=36763

Toyota to increase hybrid car (Prius) production 50% in 2007 (in Japan)
http://www.greencarcongress.com/2006/09/report_toyota_t_1.html

Speculation that Aus government leaning towards Green technologies
http://www.theaustralian.news.com.au/story/0,20867,21276402-30417,00.html

Military technology needs RE – countries like US need an alternative source other than China
http://www.gwmg.ca/investor_relations/pdf/RE_Innovation-Silent-Shift-To-China.pdf
http://www.gwmg.ca/investor_relations/pdf/trout_on_china_REE.pdf

 BCC has, in its research on the RE market, extrapolated that there would be increase in demand of REs of 10% per annum from 2006 – 2011, and an increase of 40-80% in RE pricing throughout 2006 – 2008.


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## purple

3. “Is the company in a field that is not dangerously overcrowded, and is it in a good competitive position?”  

There is an expected 10-30% market share (estimated) when LYC starts output in mid 2008 because the only other supplier of REs, China, has the other 90%. However, hot on its heels are :

GWG:TSX (Hoidas Lake), expected to start mining soon, but I doubt that it would start anytime within 2008-2009 as they only advanced to pre-feasibility stage on July 2006.

ARU : ASX (Nolans Bore), expected to mine/produce in 2010.
Not to rule out Mountain Pass in the US, which could be brought back into production if there be any unruly play on the price by the Chinese.

Competitive pricing of REs – there would be 2 sides of  the coin to this one. The Chinese central government has shown that it is capable of stepping in to control prices (by stopping new mining licences in 2003-end 2005, thereby boosting the RE prices).  But being a developing economy, there is just that level of risk still prevalent – certain quarters of the market might quietly rebel and not adhere to quotas etc by exporting through the back door, and using a plethora of other black market tactics to profit from RE sales. 

As of 2007, the US and also European markets import their RE 100% from China.


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## purple

4. “Are company policies and operations farsighted and aggressive without calling for unjustified and dangerous over expansion?”  

Speculative miners need to be fast and aggressive. PDN’s John Borshoff has shown that aggressive expansion and diversification is needed to keep ahead of the competition. Not satisfied with just Namibia, PDN has now moved into Malawi. Market forces play a part here – the uranium bull market will not last forever, 10 more years max and it might peter off. Also, risks involved are large – environmental concerns, alternative energy (bio fuels) etc.

LYC has moved their production factory from China to Malaysia. I would say this move shows some farsightedness – in not allowing the future production to be caught under China’s quota for production. The 10-30% market share LYC is eyeing is only possible if LYC produce outside of China. 

I like the fact that Nick Curtis is not only focusing on producing REs, but on doing the ‘whole thing’ of REs – upstream to downstream :
“Lynas in its unique approach will control the entire integrated supply system from mining, through processing, to customer delivery of its own RED (Rare Earths Direct) branding - aiming to be the benchmark for security of supply and world leading quality to an international customer base.”  From  http://www.minebox.com/story.asp?articleId=4141


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## purple

9. “Has the price of the stock moved up and down over the past few years without violently wide and apparently inexplicable fluctuations?”  

1Q03 Low: RE supply was very high as there was unregulated control of the Chinese supply of REs, subsequently RE prices fell and LYC’s sp fell as well.

3Q03 High : China stops issuing new mining licences (03 – 05). Supply down, RE price up, LYC sp up.

4Q05 Low : From the Huntleys 23.8.04 analysis, “A$130m capital cost of project is an onerous ask for a junior in a non-mainstream project”. Their recommendation was Avoid. This time was a period where a junior miner was just starting out and having to raise funds and the hype for RE was very low – unsurprising that the sp was weak.

1Q07 High : Finance, technical aspects of project all sorted out, China’s quotas beginning to trim RE supply, RE prices rising. Huntley’s 15.2.07 analysis is Accumulate. Can only be blue skies for LYC now.

2Q08  ? : Production starts. Chinese Quotas drained supply. RE prices at all time high. I wouldn’t be second guessing LYC’s share price. I would just be sitting on large parcels of the shares. LYC is very sensitive to RE prices.


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## purple

I suppose the crunch question would be to compare LYC to ARU, the other RE miner in Australia. 

LYC produces in 2008. ARU in 2010. Time is of the essence. I feel a few years makes a lot of difference. When China suspended mining licences in 2003 – 2005, RE prices shot up and LYC share price subsequently rose strongly. LYC will be the 1st non-Chinese supplier into the market in 2008, and we’ll see how the market responds to this. The ‘perfect storn’ of reduced supply, quotas etc, would lead to a strong price increase, and LYC would be well positioned to take advantage of this. I’d rather be with the first in the door.


----------



## purple

8. “Is the company well within safe limits insofar as both long- and short-term borrowing are concerned?”  

It is hard to define ‘safe limits’ particularly in a bull run when fundamentals tend to get thrown out the window. Was PDN in a safe limit? It was horrendously overpriced, and yet ,it kept moving upwards. We saw a huge correction for PDN during the 1st week of March correction.

LYC is currently on a Debt/Equity ratio of 34.60 ( info dated 23-02-2007 from http://www.ascii-data.com/ )

For argument’s sake, I have compared LYC to a couple of other miners. (the 3rd column is the Debt/Equity ratio). a lot of '0's there...I'm wondering if there is some other explanation to these '0' digits.

ARU 0.72	85327073.28	0.00	0.00	0.00	-2.78	0.00	
AUZ 0.08	40001138.84	44.10	0.00	0.00	-0.18	0.00	
LYC 0.72	288035616.85	34.60	0.00	0.00	-1.86	0.00	
FXR 1.20	151362519.60	30.40	0.00	0.00	-18.11	0.00	
LIM 16.78 3672469038.10	29.60	0.00	0.00	-28.11	0.00	
GRV 0.87	12505462.65	28.80	0.00	0.00	-2.24	0.00
CDU 3.71	295384894.70	25.70	0.00	0.00	-2.98	0.00
NTU 1.60	32000003.20	0.00	0.00	0.00	-5.80	0.00	
SMM 3.95 779888079.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	-0.37	0.00	 

I’ve included a couple of Uranium hot-shots NTU and SMM as a quick contrast to see what kind of speculative effect the market can give to the share price, without any debt undertaken for advanced progress towards production.

A bit of a useless effort comparing LYC to ARU’s Debt/Equity as ARU is only producing RE’s in 2010, and I suppose wouldn’t be undertaking substantial debt at the moment for production.

LYC recently raised $75mil for financing the project. For a $273 mil market cap (10.3.07), the financing would be about a 27% of its market cap. The Mt Weld mine has a life of 18 years.


----------



## nioka

Osprey managemant continue their selldown and now hold less than 10% of shares. I believe they are a hedge fund and it will be good for all shareholders to see them completely out of the way. The SP has held up during the last few turbulent weeks. I continue to hold with confidence.


----------



## mmmmining

The business model of mining ore in Australia, and transport it overseas should be copied by other company.


----------



## nioka

mmmmining said:
			
		

> The business model of mining ore in Australia, and transport it overseas should be copied by other company.



And retaining ownership as well as retaining the enhansed value of the product. Imagine what BHP could have done with their Iron ore, nickel and coal in the same situation.


----------



## purple

nioka said:
			
		

> And retaining ownership as well as retaining the enhansed value of the product.




Yup...agree. Outsourcing, just like most of the banks have their call centres in India..but I suppose the unions will start their protests if it becomes the norm.

Works well for LYC. Malaysia should be advising LYC soon on their governmental incentives for locating the plant on their shores. Nice.


----------



## nioka

Sales on pink sheets, allowing for an exchange rate of .8, are 10% higher than the ASX last sales. This indicates to me that the shares on the ASX today are 10% underpriced.


----------



## siempre33

Nioka sez...
"Sales on pink sheets, allowing for an exchange rate of .8, are 10% higher than the ASX last sales. This indicates to me that the shares on the ASX today are 10% underpriced."

you're an optimist...I ALWAYS just figured I was wuz getting screwed....
the pinks DO trade at a premium to the ASX stock, no doubt about it...


----------



## nioka

A large volume of shares, approx 6,000,000+, were traded,according to the daily LYC chart, at 71c at 1310 pm today. Unusual. Is it Ospraie unloading more? At the last notice they were domn to 37.2m shares, a little over 8% of the voting power. I'll be happy when they are out of the picture.


----------



## nioka

Ospraie management now down to 7.11%. They were 17.4% on 11 Aug 06. At that time the SP was around 30c. Not a bad profit fof a merchant bank.


----------



## BIG BWACULL

Finally got ospraie off our backs for a bit today. Yippee yahoo 9% up.


----------



## nioka

nioka said:


> Sales on pink sheets, allowing for an exchange rate of .8, are 10% higher than the ASX last sales. This indicates to me that the shares on the ASX today are 10% underpriced.



With the price rises yesterday and today the ASX price is now ahead of the Pink sheet price. This leaves room for a pink sheet price rise tonight adding to their rise last night.


----------



## siempre33

LYC broke out to new highs!
exciting stuff....I'd expect LYSCF to spike up to at least .71....

http://finance.yahoo.com/q/cq?s=LYC.AX,LYSCF.PK&d=v2


----------



## Sean K

siempre33 said:


> LYC broke out to new highs!
> exciting stuff....I'd expect LYSCF to spike up to at least .71....
> 
> http://finance.yahoo.com/q/cq?s=LYC.AX,LYSCF.PK&d=v2



Why?


----------



## siempre33

kennas: Why?

Why indeed! more buyers than sellers?
I saw no newz, but can only guess that LYC was the object of some nlw...


----------



## siempre33

"I'd expect LYSCF to spike up to at least .71...."

wOw!! and what a spike....to .76....so I sold into the strength and will try to re-buy lower....what if it doesn't go any lower?....a chance I'll take here...

http://ca.finance.yahoo.com/q?s=LYSCF.PK&d=t


----------



## nioka

siempre33 said:


> "I'd expect LYSCF to spike up to at least .71...."
> 
> wOw!! and what a spike....to .76....so I sold into the strength and will try to re-buy lower....what if it doesn't go any lower?....a chance I'll take here...
> 
> http://ca.finance.yahoo.com/q?s=LYSCF.PK&d=t




That is a good price in US$. On the basis of that closing price we should expect a fair increase on the ASX on Monday. I'm often tempted to cash in on the rises, hoping to buy back in on a dip but have not done so on the basis I believe there is a lot more room to move yet. When Ospraie stop selling there may be a shortage of sellers. There has been good volume available lately with their sell down, that can't last.


----------



## siempre33

nioka sez: "..I believe there is a lot of room to move yet.."

Totally agree....I think the upside is awesome, so just counting on a very temporary pullback here....

btw I don't think the ASX trades off the results in NA....totally the other way around imo...
this is an Oz stock, after all....most don't even realize there IS another listing...


----------



## nioka

siempre33 said:


> btw I don't think the ASX trades off the results in NA....totally the other way around imo...
> this is an Oz stock, after all....most don't even realize there IS another listing...




Agree, but for some reason the Pink sheet price has been about 6% above the ASX price most of the time. Fluctuations in the exchange rate allowed for.
I can't say where the Ospraie sales have been made but I suspect they have been made on both markets. When the pinksheet price is better than the ASX price then the volume tends to be there and vice verca.


----------



## siempre33

nioka sez: "..for some reason the Pink sheet price has been about 6% above the ASX price.."

See my post #43....the US broker is likely also the market maker and the 6% man....the banks win again!..

post #43:
"I talked with my Scottrade broker, who said the only two ways for a co. to be listed is through either a bank or a broker...."

We know that very influential banks are financing Lynas, such as GoldmanSachs and JPMorganChase, so it would not be difficult to conclude that one of them has sponsored/initiated the listing through one of their brokers in the US...."


----------



## BIG BWACULL

MiNiNg at mount weld APPROVED YIPPEE 
OH and malaysian tax incentives


----------



## surfingman

BIG BWACULL said:


> MiNiNg at mount weld APPROVED YIPPEE
> OH and malaysian tax incentives




Nice one, thats 100% corporate tax exemption for 10 years for Malaysian processing plant...


----------



## mmmmining

Great news and deal. Too much good news, Market seems tired of it.


----------



## purple

Well, it is quite a huge back to back basket of good news. But still ,they're moving ahead. LYC was just waiting for the mining approval and then the tax incentives, and now they've put in place a new VP for Ops.

I like that...it's all systems go for now!


----------



## BIG BWACULL

Selling like hot cakes well maybe not hot cakes but definatley hot cross buns,  hittin  that blue sky


----------



## purple

Closed at 0.93 cents today...huge move from the consolidation of March on the back of those announcements.  Should've bought more long time ago. Always a regret on the hindsight. The uptrend is SO strong.


----------



## mmmmining

LYC is totally out of control. Went as high as $1.1. People are buying the story of clean hybrid motor. What a performance...


----------



## purple

mmmmining said:


> LYC is totally out of control. Went as high as $1.1. People are buying the story of clean hybrid motor. What a performance...




hybrid cars, + batteries + Ipods + mobile phones + light bulbs + all sorts of gadgets of the future + etc etc etc...
REs have a hand and a leg in every other product of the future.


----------



## BIG BWACULL

Can someone Please Explain but I noticed at 9:17 this morning 6 million shares  went through how is this possible and what does it mean? THANKS anyone. Is it yesterdays total volume going through now?????
Maybe an off market Trade at 97c?


----------



## HRL

Good spotting.  No I think that's just one trade this morning.  XT is an off market trade and 6m is about a days volume for these guys lately...


----------



## Agentm

options


----------



## BIG BWACULL

Agentm said:


> options



ahh yes as per announcement THANKS CHEERS


----------



## purple

Yea...wouldn't it be nice if a fund were to come in and buy up 6mill...  (idle thoughts). ho hum.

Now if the rest of my portfolio were like LYC... (more idle thoughts)


----------



## purple

Oh LYC! 1.02!
 
REGRET...

should've bought more.


----------



## Kimosabi

Lynas has signed of on the Mining Works contract.

The holes start getting dug in June.

http://www.asx.com.au/asxpdf/20070418/pdf/311znngqfb06xz.pdf

Already up 7% today.


----------



## purple

Increase of 16% over a week.

Buyer Depth still greater than Sellers, still looks like it has strength to go northwards

*Buyers*
Number Quantity Price 
5 38740 1.155 
9 30996 1.150 
2 149800 1.145 
4 54000 1.140 
1 10000 1.135 
1 6000 1.130 
9 60500 1.120 
1 10550 1.115 
3 72000 1.110 
12 376600 1.100 

*Sellers*
Price Quantity Number 
1.160 92000 1 
1.180 55000 1 
1.185 4574 1 
1.190 25000 2 
1.195 65000 3 
1.200 120237 7 
1.210 56000 2 
1.230 45000 2 
1.240 101000 3 
1.250 114000 4


----------



## BIG BWACULL

Huge chunk just went through at 10:17 for 8.5 MILLION @$1:15   What the?


----------



## BIG BWACULL

Over 22 million shares traded today , 8.5 million in one fell swoop.


----------



## Kimosabi

BIG BWACULL said:


> Over 22 million shares traded today , 8.5 million in one fell swoop.




hhhmmmm, what could all this mean?

I stupidly got out of these at .810 after buying at .775 (I bought them on the day of the Chinese 9% drop, and lost my nerve and sold as soon as I could make a small profit  

I've bought back in, but god I hate myself sometimes


----------



## BIG BWACULL

I bought these at 49.5 and am holding on to the ball still waiting to score a try   For me at the time i was tossing up between ARU and LYC But am glad with my choice Slow and Steady wins the race.


----------



## jeppe565

Hehe, same for me. Bought LYC instead of ARU....

I'd have a heartattack owning ARU these days...


----------



## purple

BIG BWACULL said:


> For me at the time i was tossing up between ARU and LYC But am glad with my choice Slow and Steady wins the race.




Ironically, LYC is the one who's faster to the finish line.
Production date : LYC 2008   ARU 2010


----------



## purple

LYC has been very volatile lately...my stop losses got hit by tails... hate it when that happens.

someone's wanting it cheap...manipulation

Buyers
Number Quantity Price 
1 8 1.015 
1 6000 1.010 
2 40000 1.000 
2 14500 0.995 
3 15530 0.985 
4 85000 0.980 
4 60739 0.975 
5 224000 0.970 
6 62000 0.960 
5 108300 0.950 

 Sellers
Price Quantity Number 
1.020 50000 1 
1.035 20000 1 
1.040 12909 2 
1.045 24000 2 
1.050 79713 4 
1.060 20000 1 
1.070 7802 2 
1.075 7000 1 
1.090 45000 2 
1.095 10000 1 

been waiting all week for re-entry but methinks i'll sit it out for a while and let that guy do the manipulation and then i'll get in. 

Huntleys also put out an ultra conservative analysis (downgraded) on LYC and that might spook the short termers a bit. 

plus it's May (dracula music)...

I'll reenter at end May and we should see some spectacular stuff from LYC then..


----------



## ta2693

purple said:


> LYC has been very volatile lately...my stop losses got hit by tails... hate it when that happens.
> 
> someone's wanting it cheap...manipulation
> 
> Buyers
> Number Quantity Price
> 1 8 1.015
> 1 6000 1.010
> 2 40000 1.000
> 2 14500 0.995
> 3 15530 0.985
> 4 85000 0.980
> 4 60739 0.975
> 5 224000 0.970
> 6 62000 0.960
> 5 108300 0.950
> 
> Sellers
> Price Quantity Number
> 1.020 50000 1
> 1.035 20000 1
> 1.040 12909 2
> 1.045 24000 2
> 1.050 79713 4
> 1.060 20000 1
> 1.070 7802 2
> 1.075 7000 1
> 1.090 45000 2
> 1.095 10000 1
> 
> been waiting all week for re-entry but methinks i'll sit it out for a while and let that guy do the manipulation and then i'll get in.
> 
> Huntleys also put out an ultra conservative analysis (downgraded) on LYC and that might spook the short termers a bit.
> 
> plus it's May (dracula music)...
> 
> I'll reenter at end May and we should see some spectacular stuff from LYC then..




I also use stop losses point except this one. I like the word "only", it is the only rare earth producer outside China. I know Chinese will protect their precious material like rare earth and raise the bar of exporting.They have already got more than 1000 billion US dollar surplus. and It keep on increasing. I do not think they  need money from exporting their resource any more.  Chinese will raise the price dramatically like what Aussie did in the past few years. This is the only share in my portfolio I am going to hold more than 5 years. I will not sell it whatever happen.


----------



## siempre33

"This is the only share in my portfolio I am going to hold more than 5 years. I will not sell it whatever happen."

Agreed....if there were one stock to hold LT
it is definitely Lynas....it is indeed rare!

I bought LYSCF and reco.ed it to friends, two of whom have also bought shares 
after viewing the co. presentation and reading recent articles....


----------



## purple

ta2693 said:


> I also use stop losses point except this one. .




yeah...i know that so well now!! this stock has very strong breakouts, and then the retrace with those darn tails. but the breakouts are marvellous...good gap ups..


----------



## purple

CONVERTIBLE NOTES CONVERSION INTO EQUITY
Number of securities to be issued : 87.5 million
Allotment Date : 4 May 2007

Geez, this explains why LYC sp has been sliding the past few days...word got out that the convertible notes would be converted cos it satisfied its conversion requirements..

87.5 million new shares are gonna flood the existing shares of 414.007 million..i don't know if  they are going to dilute the share price, if that's the case, then :
new total shares on issue : 501.507 million shares
dilution factor : 17.447%
current sp of 0.995 diluted to 82.139.

Does anyone know if the dilution will be a sure thing or not? 

I've been on email contact with Dr. Matthew James VP of Lynas Business Dev, but he would not divulge much.


----------



## purple

if i'm not mistaken, these options are the Singapore listed ones..

what would the Singaporean investors do when presented with new shares in a different coutry, with a potential profit of 0.995 - 0.40 = 0.595 per share?

they would start selling.

i read in smh.com yesterday that Singapore is currently in a housing boom. sheesh!!! they might sell the whole lot to buy into the real estate.

even if they sell a third of it, 30million shares would sell down LYC...

not looking good for LYC within this week.


----------



## purple

I was hovering around waiting for a good re-entry opportunity (got stopped out by the volatility last 2 weeks).

I'll wait for the 4th May to pass, then hopefully the next few days will see the sp slow its slide, then i'm buying in big time. I think the few days after the 4th of May will be a great buying opportunity as LYC will be temporarily and massively undervalued for the 40% ultra high grade RE they have.


----------



## purple

from my correspondence with LYC, their expansion into a brown-field piece of land is not so much cause for worry. 

I was fearing a worser scenario, involving extensive rehab of the brown-field land, and all sorts of overhead expenses in insurances against strange contamination etc etc. 

LYC's plant is on a greenfield land, and the extension is on brownfield. but Matthew has said that there is no rehab needed. great. no big expenses there.


----------



## purple

customers from across Europe, Japan and US are alerady lining up to buy LYC's future production!!

Matt advised that LYC's interests would be to be fully leveraged to the rise in the RE prices...great stuff! i guess hedging the price was at a time when RIO had to fix their uranium prices, but are now probably regretting it as new producers like PDN are fully leveraged to rising prices.


----------



## Kieran

purple said:


> I was hovering around waiting for a good re-entry opportunity (got stopped out by the volatility last 2 weeks).
> 
> I'll wait for the 4th May to pass, then hopefully the next few days will see the sp slow its slide, then i'm buying in big time. I think the few days after the 4th of May will be a great buying opportunity as LYC will be temporarily and massively undervalued for the 40% ultra high grade RE they have.




What's the big deal about 4th May, why is it important?

I seem to have bought in at the wrong time ($1.05) but like the rest of you in this thread, I think having the worlds biggest RE deposit will pay off in the long run. I'm not particularly worried that I'm currently ~13% down right now since I have a miniscule holding in the company - Lynas is actually the first shares I've bought.

Far from throwing good money after bad, I'd probably buy some more if they dropped to a bargain price, which would be what, in your opinions?


----------



## ta2693

Kieran said:


> What's the big deal about 4th May, why is it important?
> 
> I seem to have bought in at the wrong time ($1.05) but like the rest of you in this thread, I think having the worlds biggest RE deposit will pay off in the long run. I'm not particularly worried that I'm currently ~13% down right now since I have a miniscule holding in the company - Lynas is actually the first shares I've bought.
> 
> Far from throwing good money after bad, I'd probably buy some more if they dropped to a bargain price, which would be what, in your opinions?




Damn right, with this one you got beginner's luck. I hold some of it. I am not worried about it at all and going to top up if it can drop to 80c.


----------



## purple

Kieran said:


> What's the big deal about 4th May, why is it important?




The 4th of May is when the convertible notes are converted and 87.5 million new shares are added into the total number of shares on issue.

Exercising these notes might create a lot of selling among those who do not wish to hold LYC.

What I'm not sure about is how the existing share price will be diluted to absorb the new shares.


----------



## Kieran

Cripes, does this often happen, millions of new shares introduced, de-valuing existing shareholders investments? Is it likely to happen again or aren't you able to predict this?

80c sounds like a good time to drop some more money in, I certainly wont be mentioning it to my share-mentor as he'd be completely  about spending more money in a speculative non-profit turning decreasing share price company, but it makes sense to me


----------



## purple

it wouldn't happen much in a stock's lifetime, but when it does it is a bit of a drag to watch the share price dip a bit. 

but we need to understand that LYC had to do all these fund raising stuff, selling these convertible notes as it started out as a mining junior in very unknown material (RE). 

i wouldn't worry too much, because in my opinion I'm expecting LYC to have a strong uptrend after this correction.

look at their credentials :
- their mine is the highest grade in the world - 40% RE
- apart from China (who control output), there is absolutely no competition anywhere else in the world in 2008,2009
- the RE will be sold at unhedged prices, leveraged to the max on a rapidly rising RE price
- 10 years tax free! : to you ATO
- mining commences Apr-June qtr 2007

I could go on and on...the list is endless.


----------



## Kimosabi

It seems that everytime this stock is set to go blue sky, something else happens to stop it from happening


----------



## purple

Kieran said:


> Is it likely to happen again or aren't you able to predict this?




oops, sorry, didn't answer your question. i'll check the financial statements later, gotta go have dinner now(it's 6pm now in this desert country)...

but from what i gather from the 1 May 2007 announcement :

" ...the company is in a very strong financial position with no debt and approximately $65 million in cash. " Nick Curtis, Chairman

from that I think that they have no more outstanding convertible notes...

I'll try to pore through the financial statements later (unless someone else can do it faster)


----------



## purple

just got off an email from Matthew James of LYC, here is an excerpt vebatim :

_"All the con notes are being converted to shares, the company will not
have any debt after this is converted tomorrow."_

phew! no more of these con notes issues to contend with, at least the share price will be unthethered from tomorrow...

My thoughts are that LYC should go quite well into their production without having to have another fund raising...they've got the plant coming up in a couple of months, the confirmed pounds in the ground, and the customers lining up. 

 LYC's changing titles from mining junior to producer soon!

I'll be watching the price action closely on the 4th of May, and the 7th....and I'll be plonking down my money into LYC probably on the 7th. 

: an almost producer, with customers lined up for a high demand ore, with a sp of 80-90 cents...if this is not a crazy undervalued price, then all i can say is  .


----------



## BIG BWACULL

Lynas announcement out 12% increase in rare earths prices Batou an sichuan china productions face stoppages GOOD NEWS 
Price up Supply down


----------



## fmoraes

What's a good source for news on Lynas? 

Also, on the US, is there a good way to track the stock price? The brokerage support of LYSCF doesn't provide good quotes during the day.

Francisco


----------



## nioka

fmoraes said:


> What's a good source for news on Lynas?
> 
> Also, on the US, is there a good way to track the stock price? The brokerage support of LYSCF doesn't provide good quotes during the day.
> 
> Francisco




I have one I can't reveal. Everything is going to plan with one small hitch. Some of the locals dont want rare earths shipped through Esperance. They are thinking radioactive? I hear the company will have no problem overcoming that hitch. In my opinion the share price will continue to increase at a satisfactory rate.
 The stock price in the USA can be traced through "pink sheets"
The company does keep the market well informed with ASX announcements


----------



## gardenmyrna

fmoraes said:


> What's a good source for news on Lynas?
> 
> Also, on the US, is there a good way to track the stock price? The brokerage support of LYSCF doesn't provide good quotes during the day.
> 
> Francisco




I'm in the states and LYSCF is updated each evening on the Pink Sheets, I usually check the Aussie exchange in the morning to see how the previous day went...  Also did anyone hear about Merrill Lynch buying 33,600,000 shares ? that can only be a good thing !:


----------



## fmoraes

gardenmyrna said:


> I'm in the states and LYSCF is updated each evening on the Pink Sheets, I usually check the Aussie exchange in the morning to see how the previous day went...  Also did anyone hear about Merrill Lynch buying 33,600,000 shares ? that can only be a good thing !:




My point was that you can only see the changes after the market has closed, there is no intraday pricing available. My broker only shows 0.0 for both bid and ask. I was just wondering if anyone has any ideas if this is likely to change once more people start buying it.

Francisco


----------



## gardenmyrna

fmoraes said:


> My point was that you can only see the changes after the market has closed, there is no intraday pricing available. My broker only shows 0.0 for both bid and ask. I was just wondering if anyone has any ideas if this is likely to change once more people start buying it.
> 
> Francisco




As I understand it, the pink sheets are based on the ASX price, with the time zone difference, they only update it once a day.  the ASX is closed when US markets are open.  They are 11 hours ahead of EST.  You could get up at 2 am and check the ASX price..


----------



## nioka

I understand that there is no relationship between the pink sheets trading and the ASX. You can choose to trade your shares on either. LYC shares are popular enough in the USA to be listed on the pink sheets. This has probably been brought about by a merchant bank, mentioned in earlier posts, creating a market in the USA to offload a considerable number of shares obtained at a low price as part of a financing deal in the early days.
During USA trading times you can follow the sales there


----------



## gardenmyrna

Nioka,
      do you have a web-site for checking interdaily pinksheet prices ?  My broken only updates at the end of the day, @ 1.5 hrs after the close.
Thanks, GM


----------



## nioka

gardenmyrna said:


> Nioka,
> do you have a web-site for checking interdaily pinksheet prices ?  My broken only updates at the end of the day, @ 1.5 hrs after the close.
> Thanks, GM




www.pinksheets.com. enter lyscf as symbol. prices delayed 15min. allow for time differences.allow also for price in US dollars


----------



## BIG BWACULL

7,562, 590 Shares through at 7:38 this morning. Where did these come from   Oh just got it conversion of more oppies on the 11th april announcement


----------



## BIG BWACULL

One buyer took out $1.02 in one swoop 1, 154, 459 shares were taken up  someone out there is keen


----------



## gardenmyrna

Lynas in the US is listed  under LYSCF on the pinksheets, up over 15 % today    . I  may just be ahead enough to visit your great country !!


----------



## Mumbank

Yes, I was excited about that little run yesterday and now I know why.  First contract excellent, US$90M over 5 years. here we go.


----------



## purple

yup, and that translates into USD 18mill each year, and will increase as this contract is based on 'current prices' and is unhedged.

i've been following other producers of RE to see how the market is performing in this industry.

China RareEarth (ticker 0769 on the HongKong market) is HKD 3.5bil (AUD0.5bil)market capped and has 1.4 bil shares. It is a RE producer which operates mainly in China.Total sales for year ending 06 increased 51%.

note that China has imposed quotas/restrictions to shake out the lower quality/smaller RE producers. this has led to RE producers within China to profit.

following good profit for RE producers within China like ChinaRareEarth, I can only see upside for LYC based on the strong demand for RE.


----------



## gardenmyrna

I love the info shared on this board, not the usual bashing like some otheres.  Any thoughts as to the SP in 6 months to a year ?


----------



## nioka

gardenmyrna said:


> I love the info shared on this board, not the usual bashing like some otheres.  Any thoughts as to the SP in 6 months to a year ?



In most cases a companies SP tends to have a good increase as the start of production draws closer and I would expect this to be the case here. To quote a figure is purely speculative and considered ramping on this forum. As everything appears to be going to plan I am happy to hold and expect a good capital gain.


----------



## fmoraes

So, one question: when is the mining really supposed to start? I've seen June/July 2007 and June/July 2008.


----------



## BIG BWACULL

fmoraes said:


> So, one question: when is the mining really supposed to start? I've seen June/July 2007 and June/July 2008.



Check 9th may announcement "sydney roundup presentation" page 29, that whole presentation should help you out.


----------



## nioka

fmoraes said:


> So, one question: when is the mining really supposed to start? I've seen June/July 2007 and June/July 2008.




Production was to be carried out in China, commencing 2007. The company is getting a much better long term deal by setting up it's production in Malaysia. This meant building a processing plant from scratch and delaying the start up until 2008.Check company announcements over the last 6 months.


----------



## purple

from the Quarterly Report ending March 2007 :

June 07 - commence mining at Australia
July 07 - commence building factory at Malaysia
Nov 08 - projected date of production & sales

the quarterly report might be a bit confusing for those unfamiliar with the LYC story, as they talk about 'drilling holes' in Malaysia. 

the Malaysian soil is loam/clay soil, which needs foundational piling for construction of the factory, hence the need for soil investigation/drainage studies etc.


----------



## purple

Nice! 

"Hybrid cars the go as fuel price rockets"
http://www.smh.com.au/news/national...l-price-rockets/2007/06/09/1181089388315.html

snippet from the article : 
SELLING LIKE HOTCAKES
* First Toyota Prius on sale in Australia in 2001 - 137 sold.
* In 2006 - 2000 sold.
* First five months of 2007, 1300 sold. May tally of 380 sales is monthly record.
* Costs $37,400 to $46,900.
* Honda Civic Hybrid costs $32,990, but regularly sells out its 80 cars a month allocation.
Source: Federal Chamber of Automotive Industries.


----------



## Kieran

Excellent news purple!
I've got to say I'm optimistic with Lynas' future considering the news regarding China restricting/banning RE export/production. I've increased my holding by 2000 shares as of Friday at $1.05 - same price I paid for the first 600 in late April - I know, bad idea buying so little but it was my first share purchase - you live and learn! Taking an ultra-long-term view on this one, any sort of action is still likely to be 1-2 years away.


----------



## purple

well, Kieran, I feel LYC can put behind the note conversion and May/June to start moving on the price like it did before. 

usage of REs are increasing all over the world. this industry hasn't had the kind of hype that uranium enjoyed, but the upside is there.

of course the risks still exist, but i think the gain far outweighs the risk as LYC has far passed the exploration stage and already started digging the stuff out of the ground.


----------



## lryu

Has anyone thought about why Goldman & Merrill reduced their substantial share holdings in the company?


----------



## ta2693

Yes. I think it is not a good sign. 
But I do not worry about this. Because i know it is the only rare earth producer out of China. It is the only reason for me to hold long term. (at least 5 years).


----------



## purple

lryu said:


> Has anyone thought about why Goldman & Merrill reduced their substantial share holdings in the company?




Goldman Sachs and Merrill Lynch reducing their holdings? Reducing without any change in fundamentals, I’m not worried.

GS has been holding LYC since the $0.20-0.30 mark, so selling 14% of their holdings now would make them a tidy $5.7million profit. Imho, financial houses need to sell from time to time to post an outstanding profit chart for their ‘high net worth clients’.

ML let go of about 9million shares (22% of their original holding ) as ‘stock collateral’. The information provided in the ASX announcement is a bit too sparse to comment on, but my guess is that the reasons are the same as GS.

LYC’s fundamentals haven’ changed. They still have :
30 year mine life, @ 20kt per annum (Huntley’s Recommendation 19.04.07)
= total 600kt of RE in the ground
= total resource insitu value of USD 5.4 billion 
= yearly gross profit of USD 180 million

Calculated from current price of RE :
1 kg RE = USD 9
1 ton RE = USD9000
1 kton RE = USD 9 million

How much better can you get than a miner that is about to start digging up ore, and  has :
	No competitors in the western world until 2010
	1 anchor customer and many customers lined up with fixed contracts at unfixed prices

And after every bit of RE is dug out of the ground, LYC is not finished yet. There is still the Rare Metal ore in the ground underneath the Rare Earth. Now, that’s valued at 5 times the value of the Rare earth, which is about USD35 billion worth.

The only reason LYC is still at a sp of $1 is because the RE industry is still lesser known than other industries :
	Uranium miners that don’t even have a JORC are $2 (AGS)
	Oil/gas miners that are exploring/developing are $3 (AOE)

LYC is still trading at very undervalued prices, and I’m still sticking with it. 65% of my portfolio is on LYC – call it crazy for the under diversification if you wish, but I see the potential.


----------



## purple

i'll add, the road ahead is not a bed of roses...I"ve stopped using stop losses on LYC cause I just keep getting stopped out. I expect the sp of LYC to trend upwards, but fluctuate a bit as LYC forge ahead to pioneer the rare earth benchmark product.


----------



## Lachlan6

(LYC) is displaying the formations of a very bullish pattern at the moment. If the ascending triangle can be broken, than I will jump straight in to this one. OBV supporting it very nicely. This is classical institutional buying in my opinion as the fall in April was due to the weaker hands getting out for a nice little profit, whilst the insto's were licking their lips and buying in at cheaper prices. This has huge potential IMO.


----------



## purple

Great chart, Lachlan6, I had actually stayed away from TA for LYC cause they weren't too cheerful the last few days..MACD's a bit sluggish, RSI's, Stocs all not showing strong signals at all.

Yep, the OBV's got a nice upward slope. Not heavy accumulation, but accumulation nevertheless. Great news.


----------



## BIG BWACULL

Gee Lynas has kicked off well today 1,300,000 shares down and up 10% It closed yesterday at its all time high too of $1.20, Hope she continues on


----------



## Lachlan6

Gday Big bwacull, looking very good this morning. Have been waiting for this to breakout for some time, really like the chart setup. Got in at $1.27 this morning.


----------



## fmoraes

Lachlan6 said:


> (LYC) is displaying the formations of a very bullish pattern at the moment. If the ascending triangle can be broken, than I will jump straight in to this one. OBV supporting it very nicely. This is classical institutional buying in my opinion as the fall in April was due to the weaker hands getting out for a nice little profit, whilst the insto's were licking their lips and buying in at cheaper prices. This has huge potential IMO.




Well, it looks like we have a breakout above 1.20. Hopefully it can get more attention and start moving.


----------



## nioka

$1.37 at the moment. I have tried to get an explanation from my contact there but he has no explanation at this stage. Something must be in the wind. No company announcements maybe they will get a speeding ticket.


----------



## Kieran

What a bloody ripper! Hit $1.38 today, before coming to rest at $1.305
My first ever share trade, I bought 600 @ $1.05 in Late April and a further 2000 @ $1.05 in early June - sold today at $1.28 (after thinking I was being greedy when entering the order in last night!) for a profit of $523.

Will buy back in depending on how things look, I still maintain that this company has huge potential considering it's assets. I think we've seen the end of Sub-$1 Lynas, I'll probably buy in at around $1.20

Will also be looking at it's good mate Arafura.


----------



## purple

nioka said:


> $1.37 at the moment. I have tried to get an explanation from my contact there but he has no explanation at this stage. Something must be in the wind. No company announcements maybe they will get a speeding ticket.




Will appreciate any info that you can get, Nioka. LYC is one of those stocks that can jump upwards very quickly.


----------



## BIG BWACULL

Lynas pushing up well today hit a new high of 1.39 today hope it cracks 1.40 and holds. Sorry make that 1.395 as ispeak  imean 1.40 cant keep up .
Definately something in the wind any ideas other than the only nearterm producer of rare earths, Maybe the mining has started and the mineral grades have changed ?
Oh 1.7 million shares through


----------



## nioka

BIG BWACULL said:


> Lynas pushing up well today hit a new high of 1.39 today hope it cracks 1.40 and holds. Sorry make that 1.395 as ispeak  imean 1.40 cant keep up .
> Definately something in the wind any ideas other than the only nearterm producer of rare earths, Maybe the mining has started and the mineral grades have changed ?
> Oh 1.7 million shares through




Good to see $1.40.That is 4 times my entry price. Because of that I locked in some profit and covered all my original investment. Not too many stocks do that for me and ,in my opinion, without risk. My info is that mining has started but as the ore is only to be stockpiled at this stage it would not be the reason for the latest SP increases. This company has so much going for it that there are plenty of sound reasons for the interest shown by investors. In the past it was held back by merchant banks selling down their original cheap investment. The word RARE in its product is the real price setter and when production time is closer we should see a real bounce. In the meantime we can expect some fluxuations in price.


----------



## Lachlan6

I bought some more today, due to the nice looking chart unfolding. Today (LYC) broke the short term minor resistance closing near the high of the range on the beginnings of increasing volume (still not big volume however). The $1.20 was a very important level of support, being the gap refill from the jump up last month and the extended resistance line, since April. OBV looking spot on. Let's see what the next few months have in store for LYC.


----------



## genelar

*Lynas Corporation*

Does anyone have any information on Lynas Corp?  I am not able to find this stock mentioned in any posts.  I read about it in a research report.  According to this report Goldman Sachs owns 9.1%, Merrill Lynch owns just under 10%, and J.P. Morgan owns 5.8%.  This company is an Australian based rare earth metals producer.  I am in the U.S. so I have to call my broker to see if I can even get it purchased.  I think it is around $1.40 right now.  Any info would be appreciated. I believe the symbol is AU:LYC.

Gene Larsen


----------



## genelar

*LYC*

Thanks to everyone who contributed input in regard to LYC.  It is appreciated.  I believe it is time to make a purchase.  By the way, the research I mentioned in my first post came from Equity Research - The Swiss Research Group.

Gene Larsen


----------



## purple

*Re: Lynas Corporation*



genelar said:


> Does anyone have any information on Lynas Corp?  I am not able to find this stock mentioned in any posts.  I read about it in a research report.  According to this report Goldman Sachs owns 9.1%, Merrill Lynch owns just under 10%, and J.P. Morgan owns 5.8%.  This company is an Australian based rare earth metals producer.  I am in the U.S. so I have to call my broker to see if I can even get it purchased.  I think it is around $1.40 right now.  Any info would be appreciated. I believe the symbol is AU:LYC.
> 
> Gene Larsen




Gene,
Welcome aboard LYC. HEre's a run down of LYC in bullet points.

THE GOOD

	LYC owns the Mt. Weld mine, highest grade RE in the world
	LYC started mining in 2007 and will sell the product in 2008
	LYC is currently building the processing factory in Malaysia, LYC will receive a 10 year tax holiday from Malaysian government 
	LYC signed contract with Rhodia (French chemical company) as an 'anchor' customer. Other customers are in talks for long term contracts, but at current prices
	RE price is expected to inrease. 
	RE demand is expected to increase. REs are used in environmentally friendly products (hybrid cars) and high technology stuff like Ipods, MP3s, flat panel screens etc, which are all high demand products. 
	LYC has strong contacts with China, who controls the RE market at the moment. Nick Curtis the Exec Chairman, founded Sino Gold, which is a Sydney based company doing mining in China.
	major shareholders include Goldman Sachs and JP Morgan
	China, world’s 90% producer of RE’s, has imposed a quota on RE production to control prices

THE BAD

	RE market is small.
	Other RE miners are starting to come up eg. ARU 
	US has stockpiled RE, just in case China plays too much with the price and it's too expensive to keep buying from China. US has 1 mine which could be brought into production again if prices go too high for the mineral at the moment. 
	LYC is 100% RE mining. If a cheaper alternative suddenly appears, the RE sector might collapse


----------



## purple

Happy reading...

Australian Gov phasing out standard light bulbs by 2015(high energy wastage); to change to compact fluorescent bulbs (which use RE)
http://www.smh.com.au/news/environm...-bulbs-turnbull/2007/02/20/1171733741221.html


EU bans NiCd batteries beginning 2010 (toxic); to change to NiMh batteries (which use RE):
http://www.planetark.com/avantgo/dailynewsstory.cfm?newsid=36763


China moves fast to dominate RE market
http://www.lynascorp.com/content/up...ngs/International Herald Tribune 23-01-06.pdf

Toyota to increase hybrid car (Prius) production 50% in 2007 (in Japan)
http://www.greencarcongress.com/2006/09/report_toyota_t_1.html

Speculation that Aus government leaning towards Green 
http://www.theaustralian.news.com.au/story/0,20867,21276402-30417,00.html


----------



## gardenmyrna

*Re: Lynas Corporation*



genelar said:


> Does anyone have any information on Lynas Corp?  I am not able to find this stock mentioned in any posts.  I read about it in a research report.  According to this report Goldman Sachs owns 9.1%, Merrill Lynch owns just under 10%, and J.P. Morgan owns 5.8%.  This company is an Australian based rare earth metals producer.  I am in the U.S. so I have to call my broker to see if I can even get it purchased.  I think it is around $1.40 right now.  Any info would be appreciated. I believe the symbol is AU:LYC.
> 
> Gene Larsen




You can get shares of Lynas via the pinksheets in the U.S.  symbol LYSCF.PK, this is the best forum I have found for info, LYNASCorp web site is also very good.  Best of Luck, Lynas has been very, very good to me !!


----------



## nioka

Lynas continues to perform. It is now one of my best investments to date. 8c  rise at this stage today. A considerable international interest is adding to the list of buyers. If this continues as we approach production I would expect it will become a 10 bagger for me.


----------



## gardenmyrna

Its been fairly quiet, any news ?  hopefully a small consolidation period before the next leg up!


----------



## Lachlan6

Bouncing nicely today off support. This is around $1.20, being the resistance turned support and that uptrending line from mid March. No volume on the correction since mid July either. Could form into a very nice reversal candle today. Will need to be confirmed with an up day tommorow. My stop currently $1.19.


----------



## nioka

According to Westpac, LYC is in "preopen" No announcement yet????? It has had a bumpy ride this morning but was recovering nicely.


----------



## sting

LYNAS SECURES US$105 MILLION BANK DEBT FACILITY FOR
THE DEVELOPMENT OF THE RARE EARTHS PROJECT
The Directors of Lynas Corporation Limited (“Lynas”) (ASX code LYC) are pleased to announce
the company has received a Letter of Offer providing commitment from Bayerische Hypo- und
Vereinsbank AG (HVB) to underwrite a Facility of US$105 million.
Draw down of this Facility is subject to standard banking due diligence, all Facility documentation
in place; all necessary authorisations, consents and approvals in place; and completion of a
convertible note for a minimum of US$50 million. This convertible note will be provided by the
Indus Capital Partners LLC facility announced on 6 July 2007.
Lynas has accepted this Facility. The key terms of the US$105 million Facility include:
1. Senior Debt Facility for US$80 million and Mezzanine Facility for US$10 million with
repayments commencing December 2009 and ending December 2013.
2. Working Capital Facility for US$15 million redrawable until December 2012 with a
repayment in June and December 2013.
3. The margin for all components of the facility is 2.5% over the USD SIBOR reference rate
after construction is complete and 3.0% during construction.
Lynas Executive Chairman, Nicholas Curtis said:
“The facility from HVB is a major achievement for Lynas. It underscores the financial robustness
of the Rare Earths project and secures the company’s ability to develop a globally significant
position as a key supplier in the Rare Earths industry.”

Latest Announcement


----------



## nioka

nioka said:


> According to Westpac, LYC is in "preopen" No announcement yet????? It has had a bumpy ride this morning but was recovering nicely.



Back trading. An announcement re debt facility. Now trading well above todays low but still down for the day as are most stocks.


----------



## purple

The $105million bank loan : from a major German private bank Bayerische Hypovereinsbank 
The $115million convertible note placement : with Indus Capital Partners, a U.S.-based hedge fund manager with offices in London, Hong Kong and Tokyo, with over $2.6 billion in assets

Glad to see all this happening; initially I was surprised to see a European bank funding an Australian miner!! But then the hybrid car thingy is accelerating madly :

http://www.dw-world.de/dw/article/0,1564,1427912,00.html

* 14.12.2004 German Carmakers Catch Hybrid Fever *
excerpt : 
...Caught off guard by the success of Toyota's hybrid Prius model, German carmakers are racing to catch-up. DaimlerChrysler and GM announced plans on Monday to jointly produce hybrid technology for their cars and trucks...

http://english.people.com.cn/200705/06/eng20070506_372332.html
UPDATED: 11:12, May 06, 2007
*Hybrid cars increasingly popular in Germany*
excerpt :
Nearly one third of consumers in Germany are planning to buy a hybrid vehicle as their second car, a consumer survey released on Saturday showed.

*Now for something tantalizingly interesting : *

http://www.ubs.com/1/e/media_overview/media_asiapacific/mediareleases.html?newsId=104454
Hong Kong, August 24, 2006, 07:24 AM
UBS Asia Pacific announces winners of its inaugural Stock Picking Competition : Indus Capital Partners and Blue Pool Capital shared the award for Best Stock Pick…

Now, if Indus Capital show their skill in stock picking to win UBS’s 2006 competition (this is not your backyard stock picking over Sunday sausages), and now in 2007 they choose to buy up $115million worth of LYC convertible notes…

You put 2 and 2 together…Indus Capital is indirectly showing which stock they think is going to hit the big time! now, i know that stock picking sometimes includes luck, but great stock pickers don't become beggars quickly...


----------



## BIG BWACULL

Announcement out today  Holding well on a bad day 
Lynas Signs US$200 Million Rare Earths Supply Contract



> Key Points:
> • Second customer supply contract signed for Rare Earths project
> • Contract value in excess of US$200 million, over five years
> • Minimum floor price in contract, with no maximum ceiling price
> • Important contract in the growing Rare Earths magnet market
> Lynas Corporation Limited (“Lynas”) (ASX code LYC) is pleased to announce the signing of the
> company’s second supply contract with a significant Rare Earths customer for the supply of
> Mt Weld Rare Earths to be produced from the company’s Malaysian processing plant.
> The contract is a long term five year contract with a value in excess of US$200 million over five
> years based on current prices. The contracted sales cover neodymium and praseodymium which
> are key elements for the Rare Earths magnet industry. The pricing structure of the contract is
> related to the market price; however it includes a minimum floor price, without a maximum ceiling
> price, for the product sales over the term of the contract.
> Lynas’ Executive Chairman, Nicholas Curtis, believes that the signing of the contract is another
> key milestone for the company and the Rare Earths project:
> “The Rare Earths magnet market is growing very strongly at fifteen percent per annum which is
> forecast to continue for the next five years. This is an important market for the company and it
> gives certainty to the company’s cash flows. The Board is delighted the company has signed a
> long term supply agreement in this market”, Mr Curtis said.
> The company continues to be actively engaged with additional potential customers in Europe,
> Japan and the USA.


----------



## BIG BWACULL

Lynas is in a trading halt WHAT THE  Hopefully its some good news any ideas out there


----------



## sting

This has to be something BIG... this mob rarely bother about trading halts.... cant be another contract unless a big one as they have in the past just made the ann.........

MAYBE A TAKOVER OFFER...... who agree's

this could not have come at a worse time im off overseas tomorrow now will have to get up during the nite over there to check this out.


----------



## nioka

BIG BWACULL said:


> Lynas is in a trading halt WHAT THE  Hopefully its some good news any ideas out there




Not a clue but there are more buyers lining up at a higher price than the last closing price so the sentiment is positive but then again most of my stocks are up today so far and none are down at this stage. I'll see if I can find out anything new.


----------



## rob scott

is it possible that there could be problems with the proposed financing- was the propossed financing finalised or is there problems with hedge funds ?
i cant think of any other reason for a trading halt except an emergency with money-i hope i am very wrong


----------



## DonAqua

rob scott said:


> is it possible that there could be problems with the proposed financing- was the propossed financing finalised or is there problems with hedge funds ?
> i cant think of any other reason for a trading halt except an emergency with money-i hope i am very wrong




Maybe the reason is following: 
Lynas signs US$200m Rare Earths supply contract

Seen on www.goldseiten.de with reference to a story published be www.minebox.com 

 Lynas Corporation Limited has signed its second supply contract with a significant Rare Earths customer for the supply of Mt Weld Rare Earths to be produced from the company’s Malaysian processing plant.

The contract is a long-term five-year contract with a value in excess of US$200mover five years, based on current prices. 

The contracted sales cover neodymium and praseodymium, which are key elements for the Rare Earths magnet industry. The pricing structure of the contract is related to the market price, however it includes a minimum floor price, without a maximum ceiling price, for the product sales over the term of the contract. 

Lynas’ Executive Chairman, Nicholas Curtis said he believes the signing of the contract to be a key milestone for the company and the Rare Earths project. 

“The Rare Earths magnet market is growing very strongly at fifteen percent per annum, which is forecast to continue for the next five years,” Mr Curtis said. “This is an important market for the company and it gives certainty to the company’s cash flows.”

“The Board is delighted the company has signed a long-term supply agreement in this market,” Mr Curtis said. 

Lynas Corporation is actively engaged with additional potential customers throughout Europe, Japan and the USA.

- 02 Aug 2007 

-------------- Good news, I suppose


----------



## rooster6

DonAqua said:


> Maybe the reason is following:
> Lynas signs US$200m Rare Earths supply contract
> 
> Seen on www.goldseiten.de with reference to a story published be www.minebox.com
> 
> Lynas Corporation Limited has signed its second supply contract with a significant Rare Earths customer for the supply of Mt Weld Rare Earths to be produced from the company’s Malaysian processing plant.
> 
> The contract is a long-term five-year contract with a value in excess of US$200mover five years, based on current prices.
> 
> The contracted sales cover neodymium and praseodymium, which are key elements for the Rare Earths magnet industry. The pricing structure of the contract is related to the market price, however it includes a minimum floor price, without a maximum ceiling price, for the product sales over the term of the contract.
> 
> Lynas’ Executive Chairman, Nicholas Curtis said he believes the signing of the contract to be a key milestone for the company and the Rare Earths project.
> 
> “The Rare Earths magnet market is growing very strongly at fifteen percent per annum, which is forecast to continue for the next five years,” Mr Curtis said. “This is an important market for the company and it gives certainty to the company’s cash flows.”
> 
> “The Board is delighted the company has signed a long-term supply agreement in this market,” Mr Curtis said.
> 
> Lynas Corporation is actively engaged with additional potential customers throughout Europe, Japan and the USA.
> 
> - 02 Aug 2007
> 
> -------------- Good news, I suppose




That was announced yesterday during trading.  That would not be the reason for today's halt.  Won't come out until next week most likely.....


----------



## DonAqua

rooster6 said:


> That was announced yesterday during trading.  That would not be the reason for today's halt.  Won't come out until next week most likely.....




Okay then, so we'll have to wait and guess until they announce it to the public ..

I need more coffee


----------



## digdeeper

New to the board....have been long LYC for 1 year.  Very impressed with management's assured performance in putting project elements/funding requirements together along steady development track.  But the trading halt on heels of latest supplier deal notice is perplexing...clearly indicative that price sensitive situation has arisen....perhaps a little too suddenly?  Has Indus Capital funding fallen out of bed...or has LYC received an approach?  A bit too much drama for my liking.
Digdeeper


----------



## kim8869

HI, I'm new to the site, but have been trying to find some info. about the trading halt these past two days. I'm a US investor in Lynas, and have a very difficult time finding info. over here on the company. The stock was down a bit here yesterday in trading          Does anyone know anything at all yet?


----------



## nioka

No announcement yet . It was supposed to come out prior to trading commencing??? Why the delay. Buyers still offering better than last closing prices.


----------



## fmoraes

From the Yahoo forum:

LYC - "Suspension from Official Quotation"

Any ideas of what's going on?

This doesn't really sound very good.

Francisco


----------



## nioka

fmoraes said:


> From the Yahoo forum:
> 
> LYC - "Suspension from Official Quotation"
> 
> Any ideas of what's going on?
> 
> This doesn't really sound very good.
> 
> Francisco




Suspended, probably because they have not come out with the promised announcement. Just have to keep watching.


----------



## Kieran

It sounds quite worrying but I suppose it's a 'safety mechanism' employed b the ASX to avoid companies dragging out announcements.

As digdeeper said - "A bit too much drama for my liking."


----------



## BIG BWACULL

Lynas in pre open announcement out r:e
Not many sellers ...yet

*$60M SHARE PLACEMENT COMPLETES FUNDING PACKAGE
FOR RARE EARTHS PROJECT*



> The Directors of Lynas Corporation Limited (“Lynas”) (ASX code LYC) are pleased to announce
> the completion of a $60 million share placement at $1.15 per share. This completes a
> $300 million debt and equity funding package for the Rare Earths project raised over the last
> month.
> The placement was lead managed by Austock Corporate Finance with Patersons Securities
> Limited appointed as co-broker to the issue. Strong demand from both domestic and international
> investors resulted in the placement being significantly oversubscribed. Settlement and allotment
> of all shares under the placement will occur on 10 August 2007.
> Upon completion of the placement, Lynas will have approximately 560 million ordinary shares on
> issue. Participants in the placement represent a broad range of global institutional investors
> consisting of existing institutional holders and a number of new institutional shareholders that have
> been attracted onto the register.
> The Directors are also able to announce the final amount to be drawn down from the Indus Capital
> Partners, LLC, convertible note facility announced on 6 July 2007, shall be $80 million, leaving a
> $35 million standby facility available as additional contingency for the project.
> The funding package for the Rare Earths project therefore comprises of the share placement, the
> convertible note facility, the US$105 million bank debt facility underwritten by Bayerische
> Hypo- und Vereinsbank AG announced by the company on the 27 July 2007 and a cash balance
> of $60 million.
> Lynas Executive Chairman, Nicholas Curtis said:
> “The Directors are very pleased to finalise the complete fund requirements of the Rare Earths
> project taking into account prudent gearing ratios for the company whilst minimising dilution for
> existing shareholders. This package shall fund the capital and all project costs for the
> development of the mine at Mt Weld, the processing plant in Malaysia, contingencies, working
> capital requirements and corporate costs.”


----------



## nioka

BIG BWACULL said:


> Lynas in pre open announcement out r:e
> Not many sellers ...yet
> 
> *$60M SHARE PLACEMENT COMPLETES FUNDING PACKAGE
> FOR RARE EARTHS PROJECT*




Yes. I'm a bit disappointed that they didn't see fit to offer existing shareholders the chance to buy discounted shares as they have done to an institution. Shares allocated at $1.15 and selling for $1.30 at opening makes the $60 million worth almost another $8 million overnight. Work that out on an annual percentage return. I'll let the company know what I think, everyone should do the same and next time we may get a share of the action.


----------



## Kieran

Completely agree Nioka. Westfield did a 2 for 23 entitlement offer to raise capital and (afaik) it worked well, Lynas should have done the same thing.

How does one go about 'letting the company know what I think' ??


----------



## nioka

Kieran said:


> Completely agree Nioka. Westfield did a 2 for 23 entitlement offer to raise capital and (afaik) it worked well, Lynas should have done the same thing.
> 
> How does one go about 'letting the company know what I think' ??




Tele. 61 282597100  Fax 61 282597199  E-mail general@lynascorp.com or mail to 56 Pitt St Sydney, Australia 2000


----------



## ta2693

nioka said:


> Yes. I'm a bit disappointed that they didn't see fit to offer existing shareholders the chance to buy discounted shares as they have done to an institution. Shares allocated at $1.15 and selling for $1.30 at opening makes the $60 million worth almost another $8 million overnight. Work that out on an annual percentage return. I'll let the company know what I think, everyone should do the same and next time we may get a share of the action.




We should be happy now. we can get LYC on market below 1.00
That is unbelievable. That is the only one I will hold to the end. even if its price fall from $1 to 1c. The fundamental is so persuasively strong. It is easy to see how panic the market is now.


----------



## nioka

ta2693 said:


> We should be happy now. we can get LYC on market below 1.00
> That is unbelievable. That is the only one I will hold to the end. even if its price fall from $1 to 1c. The fundamental is so persuasively strong. It is easy to see how panic the market is now.




I can't believe anyone would sell at that price. I'm watching and will buy more for certain. There are some good buys today. I wish I could see a week or two ahead,


----------



## Hawkeye

Well - a lot of people (myself included) will tell you "You can have it".

Not at all impressed with management last week, and whilst it's come back to the price it is now (1.06 at time of typing) - you really should do your research on this one to determine just how much you think Rare earths are worth.  Don't get me wrong - I think Mt.Weld is great...I just don't think 'Rare Earths' are all that rare!

Good luck with it though - but I'll stock up on Iron Ore and Oil while I can.


----------



## Kieran

86 cents....what the bloody hell just happened?
It's going to take aaages for this one to recover back to the $1.52 I paid for it 4 weeks ago


----------



## nioka

Kieran said:


> 86 cents....what the bloody hell just happened?
> It's going to take aaages for this one to recover back to the $1.52 I paid for it 4 weeks ago




I've just sent an email to my lynas contact to ask the same thing. I'll post if I get any news. I spoke to them 2 weeks ago and everything was rosy and on track. I'm holding as I believe iy will recover Quickly. It is financed so it should have no problems there. Rare earths are what it says.. rare and while some of the minerals are found in many places there are not too many that are economical to mine and Lynas has the best one known to date outside China.


----------



## purple

nioka said:


> I've just sent an email to my lynas contact to ask the same thing.




ooh....Nioka....insider trading eh? 

I sent them a complaint email some time back on their share placement. I'm bullish on the company and rare earths, but unhappy with that little share placement thingy. But with the market now, I suppose everyone's got other things on their minds.



Kieran said:


> 86 cents....what the bloody hell just happened?




I think you summed up the thoughts of anyone and everyone worldwide who's trading shares.



nioka said:


> I can't believe anyone would sell at that price. I'm watching and will buy more for certain. There are some good buys today. I wish I could see a week or two ahead,




My other speccies are hit even worse.

Oh well. Hoping the bottom has been hit. My beautiful parcel LYC butterfly morphed back into a caterpillar!


----------



## Kieran

Lets look on the bright side though, we've dropped 45% since 13th July (1.565) where as our good friends over at the ARU camp have dropped nearly 50% since the 26th! (2.20)


----------



## purple

Kieran said:


> Lets look on the bright side though, we've dropped 45% since 13th July (1.565) where as our good friends over at the ARU camp have dropped nearly 50% since the 26th! (2.20)




Aye! to that.

:walker: keep on walking. 

Looks like the champagne has to delay its coming out of the cellar by a couple more weeks then.


----------



## nioka

purple said:


> ooh....Nioka....insider trading eh?




No . I just happen to have a contact that first recommended the stock who knows the latest news and is in a position to sort the spin from the fact. Let's just say he is close to the action. Probably will not get my mail until he returns to work next week.


----------



## purple

nioka said:


> No . I just happen to have a contact that first recommended the stock who knows the latest news and is in a position to sort the spin from the fact. Let's just say he is close to the action. Probably will not get my mail until he returns to work next week.




lol, no problem. looks like he does certainly know the latest, i remember you posted something about transport some time back. 

Anyway, here's to LYC climbing out of this market crash soon. Must admit the current share price is not a pleasant sight but I'm behind this stock all the way.


----------



## ta2693

Kieran said:


> Lets look on the bright side though, we've dropped 45% since 13th July (1.565) where as our good friends over at the ARU camp have dropped nearly 50% since the 26th! (2.20)




I think the difference is partly because of greedy investo friends pay $1.15 just weeks ago. Partly because ARU is more speculative than LYC who are going to produce earlier. If Investos did not inject 60m at $1.15. LYC will suffer as much as ARU.


----------



## nioka

nioka said:


> No . I just happen to have a contact that first recommended the stock who knows the latest news and is in a position to sort the spin from the fact. Let's just say he is close to the action. Probably will not get my mail until he returns to work next week.




Answer to my question received says "Lynas still travelling well with the Roche mining operation in full swing."
My tip is for a jump on monday. (I'm not always right) but regardless of monday they are a good long term investment.


----------



## 2laidbak

hey nokia,  is lynas settling down now after the market drop? i got in this last year @.48, from a stock tip at a service i sub. to and man was i happy when it went all the way to 1.40. i just found this forum not too long ago and enjoy it once i learned how to get around. it's a little different than investorshub or raging bull that's here in the states. anyway take it easy, and i think you are right about this being a great long term investment. good trading, thomas


----------



## 2laidbak

also nokia, i'm not familiar with what a substantial holding is- all i know is that every time they put that out, the stock goes up. we don't have those kind of releases over here. thanks, thomas


----------



## nioka

2laidbak said:


> also nokia, i'm not familiar with what a substantial holding is- all i know is that every time they put that out, the stock goes up. we don't have those kind of releases over here. thanks, thomas




5% or more is a substantial holding. In Lynas's case there were merchant banks providing finance through cheap shares which they kept cashing in as the price rose. They obviously did this gradually so as not to crash prices and it worked well for them the big rises then occurred when they slowed down. The recent drop, in my opinion was caused by the increase in costs and the delay in commencing production by the decision to change from China to Malaysia This has long term benefits but short term problems for those wanting instant results.
 By the way it is NIOKA not the phone NOKIA. Nioka means "green hills" which is why I'm an optimist and tend to be bullish when trading.


----------



## Kieran

Thanks for your posts nioka, you have an insight into this company unlike anyone else here and I really appreciate it!


----------



## nioka

Another small (hopefully) hitch for LYC is a change of location for it's Malasian plant. At the request of the malasian govt the plant will be located at another site. This is not expected to result in extra cost and there are said to be advantages but it could delay the start by 2 or 3 months.


----------



## Hawkeye

You Call this a Small hiccup??

2-3 Months - NO WAY...we're dealing with the Malaysian Government here...i'd be reading at least 6 months...maybe more.
Glad I got out when I did - I think there's upsides to the Co. - but right now is not a time to buy back in.  Good luck to those brave enough to hold.


----------



## BIG BWACULL

Hawkeye said:


> You Call this a Small hiccup??
> 
> 2-3 Months - NO WAY...we're dealing with the Malaysian Government here...i'd be reading at least 6 months...maybe more.
> Glad I got out when I did - I think there's upsides to the Co. - but right now is not a time to buy back in.  Good luck to those brave enough to hold.



No not a hiccup but, BURRRP Ahh thats better, Its probably better they moved the plant closer to better infrastructure and transportation


> MIDA has identified a preferred location within Pahang at the Gebeng Industrial Area. Gebeng is 2.5km from Kuantan Port and approximately 30km to the south of the original planned site. The supporting facilities and infrastructure required for the processing plant are well developed at Gebeng and include:  Filled site, which reduces the site preparation requirements  Required electricity, gas, water, and steam infrastructure  Complete logistics infrastructure including roads, a railway line to port side, and port facilities for both containers, liquid chemicals, and dry bulk materials



I bought more at $1 last week  LONG TERM HOLDER Toppin em up 
Sad to see ya go hawkeye say hello to the others a M.A.S.H headquarters Over and out


----------



## nioka

Hawkeye said:


> You Call this a Small hiccup??
> 
> 2-3 Months - NO WAY...we're dealing with the Malaysian Government here...i'd be reading at least 6 months...maybe more.
> Glad I got out when I did - I think there's upsides to the Co. - but right now is not a time to buy back in.  Good luck to those brave enough to hold.




My info is that the new site is in an advanced state of preparation compared to the existing one and production may not be delayed any more because of the change. Thought the share may drop a bit today on the news and provide a good buying opportunity but it seems that the news hasn't spooked many.


----------



## Hephaestus

economically viable Rare Earths resource, including;

 Ability to produce a high grade Rare Earths concentrate via pilot plant tested, low cost gravity separation processes.

 Inherently low thorium and uranium content thereby making it practical from an environmental perspective and allowing transportation of the concentrate.

Lynas’ Executive Chairman, Nicholas Curtis, believes that the signing of the contract is complementary to the already large Rare Earths resource held by Lynas at Mt Weld, “This acquisition further enhances Lynas’ security of supply by making Lynas a multi-mine company, it increases our growth potential, and positions Lynas in the market as the significant Rare Earths supplier outside of China”, Mr Curtis says.


----------



## nioka

I'd be happier if the new mine was not in a landlocked African  country but I guess Lynas has gone into the business with their eyes open and have considered all the problems and all the advantages. It will certainly make them one of the large rare earth producers. The news didn't lift the SP today maybe it will have a better result with the Pink slip trading tonight.


----------



## purple

I suppose that being in a landlocked country wouldn't pose that much of a problem as real earths are not that great a transportation exercise when compared to the volume and weight of Iron Ore, for example.

nevertheless the stuff still has to be brought to a shipping port though. 

seems like LYC has really big long term strategies in place. go gobbling up prime areas and sit on a huge resource while the price increases.

I'd rather they get at least the Malaysian project up and running first to start the cashflow. but then again they seem to get their customers easily, that might be a reason for them to plow ahead like that.


----------



## Hephaestus

Nice increase in sp for LYC yesterday.  Any additional news coming out soon? Seems like the market really liked their 06/09 announcement and inclusion in S&P/ASX 200.


----------



## BIG BWACULL

I Just noticed the Volume of lynas's trades on Friday 16,865,861  That was 
16,865,861 :22_yikes: Some ones buying up Big  Up 3.5c to $1.07


----------



## nioka

BIG BWACULL said:


> I Just noticed the Volume of lynas's trades on Friday 16,865,861  That was
> 16,865,861 :22_yikes: Some ones buying up Big  Up 3.5c to $1.07




Interesting. It wasn't followed up by any great volume on the pink sheet trading which would indicate the trading did not involve traders in the USA. We'll have to watch on Monday and check for major shareholders buying or selling. With such large trading on a day when the market was down it indicates confidence is up even if there are plenty of sellers. I haven't been able to get any new news from the west. I expect an increase in the SP next week.


----------



## Hephaestus

LYC seem to have a leak.  Share price up significantly yesterday.  Announcement 09:36 25/09/2007 Lynas signs third customer contract valued at $US20 million taking sales from Malaysia Stage one to $US310.  Stage 1 product now sold out.

Contract includes additional volume from Malaysia stage 2.


----------



## BIG BWACULL

Hephaestus said:


> LYC seem to have a leak.  Share price up significantly yesterday.  Announcement 09:36 25/09/2007 Lynas signs third customer contract valued at $US20 million taking sales from Malaysia Stage one to $US310.  Stage 1 product now sold out.
> 
> Contract includes additional volume from Malaysia stage 2.




Lynas Customer Contracts Total Over US$310 Million With 3rd Rare Earths Supply Contract. All I have to say is glad I'd already bought more and :jump:


----------



## BIG BWACULL

Announcement out

Lynas Secures Processing Plant Site in the State of Pahang, Malaysia



> Key Points:  A binding Letter of Intent has been signed to secure the processing plant site  The location is supported by Malaysian Federal, State and Municipal Governments  The site is within the Gebeng Industrial Area with excellent infrastructure  The required approvals are anticipated to be received by the end of 2007 Lynas Corporation Limited (“Lynas”) (ASX code LYC) is pleased to announce the signing of a legally binding Letter of Intent with a land owner for the purchase of an appropriate parcel of land for the construction of the processing plant in Malaysia. As announced on 24 August 2007 the Malaysian Industrial Development Authority identified a preferred location within the State of Pahang at the Gebeng Industrial Area. Gebeng is 2.5km from Kuantan Port. The supporting facilities and infrastructure required for the processing plant are well developed at Gebeng and include:  Cleared, levelled and filled land, which reduces the site preparation requirements  Required infrastructure for electricity, gas, water, and steam  Complete logistics infrastructure including roads, a railway line to port side, and port facilities for containers, liquid chemicals, and dry bulk materials The land selected within the industrial area is of the necessary size and shape to accommodate the plant, with the planned expansion to 21,000 tonnes per annum REO, with minimal changes to plant layout and therefore minimal engineering changes. With selection of the specific site completed the next steps include detailed geotechnical assessment, completion of the baseline environmental conditions and submission of an Environmental Impact Assessment to the Department of Environment. Normal access and construction applications will also be made to the Kuantan Municipal Council. Receipt of these approvals will be conditions precedent to the execution of a subsequent sales and purchase agreement. These approvals are expected to be granted prior to the end of December this year. In addition, a detailed review of the schedule for commencement of site works and subsequent anticipated plant production can now take place. Lynas’ Executive Chairman, Nicholas Curtis, said “After detailed discussions the Kuantan Municipal Council, the State Government of Pahang and the Federal Government of Malaysia have given their support to the company constructing the processing plant in the Gebeng Industrial Area. The company now looks forward to making solid progress in the planning, approvals, and construction of the plant to deliver the product to our customers already under contract.”



May be another good day  
201,329 shares already traded


----------



## OLDSTEW1

Hi NIOKA

Any further news on LYC?  I am in the States and have trouble getting updated info.  Thanks very much.

OLDSTEW1


----------



## fmoraes

Does anyone know if Lynas will ever trade on the regular stock exchanges instead of the pink sheets?

Francisco


----------



## nioka

OLDSTEW1 said:


> Hi NIOKA
> 
> Any further news on LYC?  I am in the States and have trouble getting updated info.  Thanks very much.
> 
> OLDSTEW1




Nothing that I am aware of that hasn't been aired. Construction takes time but I have been told it is proceeding according to plan. Until we get closer to production in Malaysia there can be little progress. The demand for the product is evident with the forward sales agreements and the SP could fluctuate quite a bit in my opinion depending on some of the bigger interested parties taking up a position. 
Mining commenced in WA along with the terms of the mining asreement and ore is being stockpiled.
Sorry I can't help more than that except to say I'm sticking with the company.


----------



## nioka

fmoraes said:


> Does anyone know if Lynas will ever trade on the regular stock exchanges instead of the pink sheets?
> 
> Francisco




Traded mainly on the ASX ( I hope we can call that a regular one)which is all I need but for someone overseas I guess they need more. The company is developing into a world wide operator with the new venture into Africa, the mine in Aust and the processing plant in Malaysia. I guess it will eventually be traded on a few more exchanges.


----------



## BIG BWACULL

Any ideas on these transactions aftermarket :dunno: ,Options exercised perhaps , 
06:01:22 PM	$1.320	7,970
05:56:38 PM	$1.320	9,962
05:50:04 PM	$1.320	9,962


----------



## uhu

Hi everybody,

This stock seems interesting.

Well, I have a question: I've heard Lynas needs plus money to make its malaysian (indonesian?) rare earth metals project. So, is it working? LYC hasn't got problem caused by the credit problem in US?

And: Is it true LYC has the world's largest rare earth metal mines outside of China? This is just an estimation or it's more?

(sorry, my english is not correct)


----------



## fmoraes

Any news? It has been recently quiet. I guess the US situation doesn't help much but I'd like to see some more signings. Keep the cash coming.

Francisco


----------



## ta2693

I have topped up LYC today. I think I have done the right thing. I do not understand why panic about Lyc. We will see the real money come in 1 year later. Chinese RE policy will be tighten and RE demand will hike.
I can not see any reason why should I worry in 1 to 3 years time.


----------



## nioka

ta2693 said:


> I have topped up LYC today. I think I have done the right thing. I do not understand why panic about Lyc. We will see the real money come in 1 year later. Chinese RE policy will be tighten and RE demand will hike.
> I can not see any reason why should I worry in 1 to 3 years time.




You have answered your own question. 1 year until the real money comes in. Transfering to Malasia has put the production back further than expected. I have exited this stock for now but will return in a few months as I can't see much action until production.


----------



## Kieran

Cripes, todays share price for Lynas is down to 87.5 cents! Perhaps it's time to buy a few more to reduce on average the $1+ shares that we've bought? I for one have 2500 shares at $1.53 which I'm kicking myself for


----------



## grace

Kieran said:


> Cripes, todays share price for Lynas is down to 87.5 cents! Perhaps it's time to buy a few more to reduce on average the $1+ shares that we've bought? I for one have 2500 shares at $1.53 which I'm kicking myself for




Perhaps they may be a takeover target.  Who else is around here with a rare earths mine with the future growth expected in plasma, lcd, displays, hybrids etc over the next few years .......   fingers crossed.  Mines seem to be getting looked at just as they are about to produce!


----------



## nioka

As per my previous post, Lynas are taking longer to get into production than was anticipated. The change from China to Malaysia followed by the locational change in Malaysia have probably set the program back more than a year. For this reason I exited the stock expecting a fall in the SP. I expect to purchase LYC again when the production date is approaching. I may miss out if there is a takeover offer before then but I do not see much change now for some months. I still have faith in the long term future, it is a pity the original plans did not work out.


----------



## purple

been a real sliding down for LYC from all the sub prime crap going on in the US. 

Grace, I doubt if LYC will be a takeover target. my take is that companies usually takeover others with a similar industry eg. BHP taking over RIO for their iron/other metals etc.

for the moment there is no other large Rare Earths producer that is cash rich that would want to swipe up a smaller near-term producer. I wouldn't expect the chinese producers to come looking (even though the Chinese are getting more aggressive and the chinese gov just took a $5bil stake in Morgan stanley).

however, the sword cuts both ways. LYC in being an imminent producer has already proven that it has a clear future onwards in having its order books full - at the moment all its future 1st production has been bought up and other customers are queing up.

that has caused LYC to even go buying other rare earth mines in Africa, which I wouldn't have if I were the CEO as I'd want a positive cash flow first.
nevertheless, LYC seems positive on the purchase and probably has plans to have a tight control on the worl'ds RE production.

I'm still in with my portfolio geared heavily on LYC (yup, through all the bad fall). the sp right now is not pretty, I know..

here's hoping that the US data coming out has begun to reassure investors. been a bit more uplifting news on Bloomberg today after all the doom and gloom the past 4 months.


----------



## ozrob

> 3 January 2008
> INCREASE OF CHINESE GOVERNMENT’S EXPORT TARIFF ON RARE EARTHS
> Key Points:
> • Chinese export tariffs on Rare Earths increased to between 15% and 25%
> • The export tariff increase on current prices would equate to an international market price of US$12.82/kg of Rare Earths Oxide for the Mount Weld distribution
> The Chinese Government authorities announced increases of the export tariff on Rare Earths effective 1 January 2008. The export tariff, which was originally introduced 14 months ago at 10% for all Rare Earths, has been increased as follows:
> Europium, Terbium, Dysprosium, Yttrium as oxides carbonates, or chlorides 25%
> All other Rare Earth oxides, carbonates, and chlorides 15%
> Neodymium as metal 15%
> All other Rare Earths metals 25%
> The export tariff increase on current prices would equate to an international market price of US$12.82/kg of Rare Earths Oxide for the Mount Weld distribution.
> Lynas Corporation (“Lynas”) (ASX code LYC) believes the increase of the export tariff highlights the shortage of Rare Earths and confirms the policy of the Chinese Government to protect the increasingly tight supply of Rare Earths in China. China is essentially the only current global source for these strategic elements until Lynas’ Mount Weld project comes on stream in 2009.
> “With Lynas’ non China assets the company will benefit from these structural changes through the increase in the international price for these essential elements as well as continued international concern of security of Chinese supply” commented Executive Chairman, Nicholas Curtis.




The above announcement was made today.
Good news for LYC when it starts producing, demand is going up, price is going up and supply is  limited.


----------



## ta2693

ozrob said:


> The above announcement was made today.
> Good news for LYC when it starts producing, demand is going up, price is going up and supply is  limited.




China is aiming for controlling the price of RE. China has the ability to do so. (80% deposit, 90% export). The RE producing and export policy will be more tighten in the future.


----------



## grace

Looks like the increase in export taxes on REO from China has brought on some buying interest.  Up 7% today with over 7million volume.  Looks to be starting a nice uptrend now.  Would post a chart but have forgotten how....


----------



## kpgduras

Hi Grace

This one came up in a scan tonight.  I have attached a Metastock chart based on candle volume.

Regards
kpgduras


----------



## fmoraes

Is all the recent SP moves still because of the China announcement or is there any other more recent news?

I'd expect we will see some bigger moves this year as we get close to manufacturing plant opening.


----------



## 2laidbak

what's up with this thing? i mean i'm sort of glad, cuz' i got out at 1.25, i've held for over a year, getting in at .52, and just decided for some weird reason to exit- and 3 days later it's way way down. wow, that's lucky and scary. someone please tell me what's going on, i'd like to get back in, but the way it looks today, it almost looks like they folded. thanks for any help, thomas


----------



## Hephaestus

Don't be silly, noone is folding.  Lynas is expecting approval of its site licence for Malaysia plant sometime this month, hence the buying up.  Their debt facility is good, and they have a great resource.  Admittedly I did sell the day before yesterday at $1.115 as I saw the drop coming that day, but have bought back in at lower price.


----------



## 2laidbak

thanks, hephthalmeus, i needed some reassurance, as i did buy back in today. i'm affixated to this stock.


----------



## boehchris

Hephaestus said:


> Don't be silly, noone is folding.  Lynas is expecting approval of its site licence for Malaysia plant sometime this month, hence the buying up.  Their debt facility is good, and they have a great resource.  Admittedly I did sell the day before yesterday at $1.115 as I saw the drop coming that day, but have bought back in at lower price.




With "this month" do you mean January or maybe February.

Thanks for the information

boehchris

P.S.What kind of crazy rule is this, that the message has to be more than xy words?


----------



## 2laidbak

when merrill lynch ceases to be a substatial holder- why does the price spike? i only see this with aussie stocks and this is the only asx stock i own, so if anyone could help, it would greatly be appreciated. thanks, thomas


----------



## refined silver

2laidbak said:


> when merrill lynch ceases to be a substatial holder- why does the price spike? i only see this with aussie stocks and this is the only asx stock i own, so if anyone could help, it would greatly be appreciated. thanks, thomas




Merryl Lynch just had huge writedowns, ($10b?, $16b?, I forget)and will probably have more to add as most companies are still markeing derivatives to model not to market. (In other words marking to what their model says they are worth, rather than what they could get in the market for them - thats why all banks have scared to stiff to let CDOs, SIVs CDSs etc be sold cos then they'd all have to mark to market and the losses would really hit the fan.) Anyway I digress sort of...  Obviously Merryl are having to sell lots of stuff to raise liquidity as they are close to insolvent. Once selling pressure is over, voila, price spike 

A second more dubious reason is that many brokerages manipulate stock prices for their own benefit eg short selling stock to keep prices depressed to then participate in equity offerings at greatly reduced rates etc.

I also like and own LYC for the LT


----------



## fmoraes

Yahoo listed an interim earnings release on Feb 20 but I haven't seen any details on it. Does anyone know anything about it?

The Malaysia approval is certainly welcome.


----------



## fmoraes

fmoraes said:


> Yahoo listed an interim earnings release on Feb 20 but I haven't seen any details on it. Does anyone know anything about it?
> 
> The Malaysia approval is certainly welcome.




From what I can find, the only thing that happened on that day was the release of the Malaysia approval.


----------



## Hephaestus

Malyasia approval a month behind schedule.  With the sudden rush to $1.45 again, I feel a short term pullback to $1.25 - 1.30 is justified with large profits in the wing.  Be patient and see rewards within 12 - 18 months.


----------



## mauib

*Dines Recommendation*

I read on another board that Dines had recommended this stock. I dont subscribe to Dines but does anyone have info on this recommendation? I am very long LYC.


----------



## Sanhedrin

Thats correct Mauib just received my TDL and Jim has recommended the stock at $1.50 he also has ARU for the ROE and Uranium potential.


----------



## Kieran

Well I got out of this bastard a few days ago at $1.53 (bought for $1.52). Yes it went up to ~$1.60 but now it's down to $1.23. I sold because the cash I had in LYC is working better for me in a mortage offset account at ~9.5%


----------



## jeppe565

Does anybody knows why Lynas is down 15% today? I couldn't find any negative news anywhere....just this notice "New Listing [(ASX: LYC.ax) ] Change in substantial holding".


----------



## nioka

jeppe565 said:


> Does anybody knows why Lynas is down 15% today? I couldn't find any negative news anywhere....just this notice "New Listing [(ASX: LYC.ax) ] Change in substantial holding".



 I exited LYC some time ago (refer my earlier post) because I believe it will basically trade sideways and fluctuate with the market for minerals. I will probably get back in when production in Malaysia gets closer to starting. I have had no adverse news other than the delays as outlined in company reports.


----------



## Trader52

LYC looks good for the long term.  Once they get the plant up and running and the cash flow starts the SP should tick up.  This may take awhile and until then will vary with the market.  Rare Earths are a solid commodity for the future, so I will stay the distance.

Disclosure - I hold LYC.


----------



## Hephaestus

Ah, what the hell just happened to the LYC share price? 
Down 14% for no apparent reason.
Has there been a reduction in value of the rare earths?


----------



## nioka

Hephaestus said:


> Ah, what the hell just happened to the LYC share price?
> Down 14% for no apparent reason.
> Has there been a reduction in value of the rare earths?




 My information is that actual mining has stopped but there are large stockpiles of ore. They are about to start building the concentration plant at the mine as planned. The refining is still going to be done in Malaysia. My contact says he knows no reason why the SP should have dropped as it has.

 I sold out some time ago as I couldn't see much change until they were closer to production. This has taken longer than first planned so I guess there are some losing patience. There was volume in the selling today so the fall was most likely caused by an institution dumping. I will watch and may reenter while the price is down.


----------



## Hephaestus

This is slightly old news, but interesting nevertheless:

The Age.com.au

Poor governance performers on rise

Ruth Williams 
June 26, 2008 

A NEW survey has recorded a rise in big listed companies performing poorly on corporate governance issues, with Premier Investments, Prime Television and a slew of mining stocks among those marked down.

Ten companies in the ASX 250 were given the lowest rating of one star in the latest WHK Horwath Corporate Governance Report, up from six last year and four the year before. Five of those ranked lowest were resource companies, and the others included Diversified United Investment, Lynas Corporation and Reece Australia.


----------



## storchyman

This might be a silly question, 
but what exacly is rare earths and what is it used for?

thanx in advance, storch


----------



## danielfields

what do you think? Is the future below 1.00?  Or will go back to 1.40+?  Any recent news or info you have seen on the recent plummet in SP?


----------



## Goldmann

on its way back i would think. everything has been hammered in the last two weeks.. another good day on the ASX tomorrow and should head towards 1.30 again...

I dont hold - but would like to have some in my portfolio.. been following for a while... good long term play...

rare earths go into microchips, the batteries in Hybrid cars along with loads of other stuff... 

China is the biggest player, and they are now reducing exports of the stuff due to "not wanted to lose their strategic advantage".. all good news for LYC...


----------



## danielfields

Thanks, Goldmann!  Looks like you were right, and even though the reasons are the same as they have been in the past ;-) looks like we're seeing it.
Cheers


----------



## Goldmann

been a tough few weeks for LYC.

I finally jumped in at .86.  

looks like i should of held off for a nother little while.

anyone have any news on this one??? thinking of doubling up, but its a risk game in this market.  what used to look like a floor is now tumbling.


----------



## nioka

Goldmann said:


> been a tough few weeks for LYC.
> 
> I finally jumped in at .86.
> 
> looks like i should of held off for a nother little while.
> 
> anyone have any news on this one??? thinking of doubling up, but its a risk game in this market.  what used to look like a floor is now tumbling.




 I'm sitting on the profit I made on this one earlier. As per my earlier post I will reenter when they are near production, which I believe is a little way off yet. Until then I see very little change. Shifting the production plant to Malaysia may be a good long term proposition but it certainly did nothing for the short term value of LYC. It has been tough for all the miners and LYC is no exception.


----------



## matt1987

any ideas of when this will bottom out from a charting perspective. fundamentally looks like it has a good future, but the price really has come crashing down of late. i was thinking about getting in at 1.00 a while ago ..... lucky i didnt.


----------



## ta2693

i am surprised to see lyc fall below $1 
however, SGX and LYC have the same management team. I feel LYC is going to slide further as long as sgx falls as people may doubt lyc's management team.


----------



## Hephaestus

Can you explain what the issues with SGX management are currently?
I do understand the sudden drop in LYC and would of course like to buy more in a market where demand in rare earths will certainly rise (had >100 flourescent bulbs installed last night in the house).

What's the movement on rare earth metal prices at the moment, I can't find a live link to them.
Cheers.


----------



## DionM

Well at these prices I decided to have a nibble at LYC at 0.365 / share.

Their product sounds like it will be in demand, and it looks promising.  The concept of processing in Malaysia is interesting, but I guess if China is the main producer I guess it helps to be a little more geographically nearer to there than in WA!

I also like the fact that they have been able to perform several capital raising at increasingly higher prices - rather than decreasing prices!  Obviously there was confidence in the business back then, and I think all that has changed since then is the financial meltdown ... but these guys appear to have finances in order and a good order book, and cash on hand.


----------



## Lachlan6

Any move higher from here should just be a corrective bounce and nothing to get too excited about. I would expect a choppy wave (4) or triangle to form however there is still no evidence the wave (3) is complete. The giveaway that not all was right was the break through strong support at around $0.85.


----------



## Miner

storchyman said:


> This might be a silly question,
> but what exacly is rare earths and what is it used for?
> 
> thanx in advance, storch





Hi Storchyman

In case you still awaiting for an answer to your question posted in July 08 (sorry but for the first time accidentally I visited LYC forum while getting bored after a hectic 4 weeks overseas business cum holiday trip).

Rare earths are the materials used in energy efficient bulbs, hybrid cars, batteries etc. Best will be visit Google and type rare earths to get inundated answers or visit LYC website .


----------



## Goldmann

great day for LYC, up 16% on the day... 

does this have something to do with the news from today (relating to one of the bigger holders that were selling are nearing the end of their holding) - or yesterdays news - relating to the new customer off take agreement.

need this one to sustain some upward momentum!


----------



## Miner

The upward movement from LYC is in fact astonishing. Definitely they have all the good news but the end users (car manufacturers) are constantly shedding production, closing plants so the product from LYC and similar organisations need to search market. 

Under such circumstances LYC share increase hopefully not a bounce of a dead cat. 

Disclaimer : I do not hold LYC


----------



## Lachlan6

Following on from my post on the 10th of November when i suggested LYC should trace out a congestion pattern probably a triangle, it seems this may now be in the form of a Running Flat pattern. I have counted the stock in the wave (4) position and having completed the waves a and b making it currently in the final wave c. There should be significant resistance between 50 - 60c being the top of this running flat and also that gap from Oct last year. This should precede a last fall into the wave (5) to complete the big move down from March last year. 

The other scenario is that five waves are complete and a signifant bounce is upon us, but I have relegated this to be the less likely scenario at this stage.


----------



## Goldmann

Miner said:


> The upward movement from LYC is in fact astonishing. Definitely they have all the good news but the end users (car manufacturers) are constantly shedding production, closing plants so the product from LYC and similar organisations need to search market.
> 
> Under such circumstances LYC share increase hopefully not a bounce of a dead cat.
> 
> Disclaimer : I do not hold LYC




yeah see the car manufacturing thing i see as a bonus for LYC.. considering at Detroit motor show, most majors released plans for their new hybrid cars - that would increase demand for Rare earths!!!


----------



## RareEarth

*Re: LYC - Rare Earths are going off*

IMO Lyc is the cheapest stock with the biggest upsided in the next 3 months 


25/1/2009
jack lifton ...Toyota took a license from ECD in the 1990s and went into a strategic alliance with Matsu****a (Panasonic) to develop and mass produce nickel-metal hydride batteries in Japan for its own use. ECD’s most profitable patent was a process patent, which gave ECD the right to royalties from anyone using nickel-metal hydride batteries for vehicle propulsion. This is commonly misunderstood and many writers claim that ECD has the ‘rights’ to any nickel-metal hydride battery developments by any of its licensees. This is simply not true and in the case of Toyota, for example, the Japanese car maker has now bought out Matsu****a’s share of their joint venture and is constructing a new plant in Japan to make its own much improved version of the nickel-metal hydride battery for the Prius type power train in-house. Toyota plans to triple its production of Prius- power- train- using hybrid vehicles and of nickel-metal hydride batteries built entirely in-house to a total of 1,000,000 vehicles and 1,000,000 batteries per year by 2011. In order to insure that it has sufficient lanthanum for its needs Toyota has been aggressively and quietly stockpiling lanthanum and negotiating off-takes with those non-Chinese REE miners who are closest to startup. I believe that Toyota has off-take agreements with Australia’s Lynas (ASX: LYC)


----------



## Miner

*Re: LYC - Rare Earths are going off*



RareEarth said:


> IMO Lyc is the cheapest stock with the biggest upsided in the next 3 months
> 
> 
> 25/1/2009
> jack lifton ...Toyota took a license from ECD in the 1990s and went into a strategic alliance with Matsu****a (Panasonic) to develop and mass produce nickel-metal hydride batteries in Japan for its own use. ECD’s most profitable patent was a process patent, which gave ECD the right to royalties from anyone using nickel-metal hydride batteries for vehicle propulsion. This is commonly misunderstood and many writers claim that ECD has the ‘rights’ to any nickel-metal hydride battery developments by any of its licensees. This is simply not true and in the case of Toyota, for example, the Japanese car maker has now bought out Matsu****a’s share of their joint venture and is constructing a new plant in Japan to make its own much improved version of the nickel-metal hydride battery for the Prius type power train in-house. Toyota plans to triple its production of Prius- power- train- using hybrid vehicles and of nickel-metal hydride batteries built entirely in-house to a total of 1,000,000 vehicles and 1,000,000 batteries per year by 2011. In order to insure that it has sufficient lanthanum for its needs Toyota has been aggressively and quietly stockpiling lanthanum and negotiating off-takes with those non-Chinese REE miners who are closest to startup. I believe that Toyota has off-take agreements with Australia’s Lynas (ASX: LYC)




Rare Earth

You may be right but with Toyota production reduced, industrial production in most of the commodities reduced implying the consumption of spares of energy efficienty bulbs will reduced, implying consumption of rare earth will be reduced how LYC will be still a cheap stock

With additional equity raising plan the earnings per share will be further diluted

My opinion any way 

Cheers


----------



## Goldmann

anyone interpret whether this announcement will hurt LYC more than it is already? was it expected, or is it a further draw down of cash???


----------



## Miner

Goldmann said:


> anyone interpret whether this announcement will hurt LYC more than it is already? was it expected, or is it a further draw down of cash???




Goldmann et al

YOu might have read in ASX already that the company has postponed the project . (see attachement) 

It is rather strange that one hand they had equity placement as a stand by, pay back time only 12 months or so, two years order booked already, high market demand with Chinese curtailment of export - STILL the project is not going ahead due to market sentiment 

I was talking one of LYC senior executive only ten days back and he painted a brilliant picture of the company's future, $55 cash (now ASX report suggests they will spend the cash prudently . Getting better deal in Las Vegas than buying its own stocks ) 

What will happen to those solid buy back arrangement of production for next two years 

Or was it very loosely agreed contract with an easy exit from either side excepting the people who invested on Rare Earths - what an irony of the outcome. 

Could some one please update with a better view and glorious signs as I am be reading too much to understand the postponement of this project.


----------



## Miner

My Good ness
LYC opened 12 cents, went to 10 cents  and just recovered to 19 cents or so now

Who were teh lucky (?) ones to buy at 10 cents and then probably sold at 19 cents

Code  Last  % Chg  Bid  Offer  Open  High  Low  Vol  
LYC 0.195 -26.42% 0.190 0.195 *0.120 *0.195 0.100 6,851,518

PS : I do not hold


----------



## Aka

directors will find the way thru bond problems or will arrange fanding very soon. The cost of funds already invested is much more then what they need to finish it.  Share have only one way to go now out temporary limbo...I am buying


----------



## Miner

Aka said:


> directors will find the way thru bond problems or will arrange fanding very soon. The cost of funds already invested is much more then what they need to finish it.  Share have only one way to go now out temporary limbo...I am buying




Dear AKA

Welcome to the forum considering you only came in Nob 08 and posted twice

Could you please throw some lights to share your thoughts on behind buying LYC and is it for short/ med or long term or just for trading ? 

There is a very high volume of trading suggesting some big players are changing hands. Notwithstandding some update will be appreciated


----------



## jman2007

I haven't researched this company very much 

From a project perspectve the Mt Weld REE deposit is very interesting however, and this deposit _is_ the world-wide benchmark for all aspiring REE developments. Just off the top of my head it probably contains around 17% of the world-wde inventory of REE's, perhaps enough for a 25-30 year mine life?

The carbonatite intrusion (the big round blob on their geology maps) was probably the source for all these exotic elements, but a mafic intrusion which cuts through the carbonatite acted like a giant filter, and concentrated all the goodies from the carbonanite in it. 

Perhaps half the battle with getting these types of projects going is being able to successfully market your product to the end users. I'm not sure what kind of shape they're in financially, but there has been a lot of construction and pre-stripping going on down there, and I like the project because it's a bit different 

jman


----------



## Aka

i hope we do not judge here people by howm many tmes they posted and since when.

In the nutshell:

1. Look at options issue during the QTR (some kind of indication)
2. cash backing approx $.1 per share
3. enogh cash to last for sometime until they find/resolve funding
4. they own something really worthy , in the time to come (these elements could only be found if some parts of the world)

I look at at it as 3-6 month 

happy to share sometime my thoughts with fellow shareholders.


----------



## spankme

I thought LYC was trying to get more funding $$$$$$$.

Has this happened?  I read something about getting $$$$ from Malasia?  I am new to this stock and thing about buying in!

What are everyones thoughts?

Thanks


----------



## Goldmann

interesting article in todays australian... 

----

CHINA has triumphed in a 15-year quest to become the "ultimate monopolist" in the supply of rare earth metals - a dominance that industry experts say could give Beijing control over the future of consumer electronics and green technology.

Industry sources believe that with China dramatically cutting its annual rare earth export quotas, the time may be rapidly approaching when it will be impossible for any company to produce a wind turbine or hybrid electric car outside the communist country. 

After a long, relentless campaign of price wars and export quota reductions, more than 95 per cent of the global supply of rare earth metals - a group of 17 "lanthanide" elements employed in hundreds of technologies ranging from mobile phones and BlackBerrys to lasers and aviation - is produced by China. 

Although China has the resources and refinery capacity to produce enough lanthanum, terbium, neodymium and dysprosium to satisfy a global demand that is rising at 10 per year, its rare earth export allocation for the whole world this year is expected to be about 38,000 tonnes - less than the quantity required by Japan alone. 

Furthermore, as the world tries to make itself more energy-efficient, China's dominant position will become more strategically critical because of the wide range of cutting-edge environmental technologies, such as wind turbines, low-energy light bulbs and hybrid cars, that depend heavily on the rare earth metals. 

Jack Lifton, an expert on rare earths, said: "Deng Xiaoping's comment in 1997, where he said that China would be for rare earth metals what the Middle East was to oil, has become a very stark reality. The world has to wake up and start thinking of this group of elements as the 'technology metals' without which there will be no technology. China is already working out how these metals are going to give its companies a competitiveness that the rest of the world will find very difficult to match." 

China's rising strength in rare earth supply and its apparent willingness to use that as "a 21st-century economic weapon" have triggered what government sources in Tokyo told The Times was an invisible tsunami of panic in Japanese industry, which in turn has called on the Government to fight its corner with Beijing. Japan, which imports nearly 100 per cent of its rare earths from China, sees the group of elements as a probable battleground for future trade wars. 

Toyota and other big carmakers are hurrying to secure alternative supplies in Vietnam and Malaysia. Mines in the United States that were forced out of business by price wars may be brought back into use. Yet many industry observers believe that Beijing may engineer a global supply crunch before any serious rival sources become available. 

China's strategy, said Yoichi Sato, head of the rare earth division of Mitsui, suggested a complex game being played between Beijing and the world's rare earth consumers. The perceived idea behind China restricting its rare earth exports is twofold. First, it gives its own high-tech industries a chance to flourish and gain a huge competitive edge over rivals in Asia, Europe and the US - a politically useful gambit by a Government whose legitimacy lies in the provision of jobs and economic growth. Second, it may force foreign companies to move their high-tech factories and research centres to China to circumvent quotas, a move that Japanese companies will resist for fear of losing industrial secrets. 

Mr Sato also believes that China will seek to use its existing monopoly status to crush any competition that emerges. Although about 42 per cent of worldwide reserves of rare earth ores lie outside China, very few places have significant refinery capacity. 

Mr Sato said: "Of course many people are looking at establishing alternative refineries and sources outside China, but the investment is not necessarily a sound one because of the threat of price revenge by China. If new projects emerge, as they have recently in Malaysia and Australia, China could just drop its prices and force rivals out of business." 

*Prospects of developing the industry outside China have been hit by a sudden decision by investors in Lynas, the Australian group, to pull funding for a project under which a big refinery would have been built in Malaysia for operation by the end of this year. A company source said that the project, which would have given companies such as Toyota and Honda a welcome diversity of supply, is unlikely now to open as scheduled. *

Moreover, China's push to remain the globally dominant player appears to have intensified. Within the past fortnight, a Chinese investment company has acquired 25 per cent of Arafura Resources, an Australian rare earth miner, and last month China Minmetals Rare Earth Company laid out plans to invest dollars 300million (pounds 212million) to cement its position as the globally dominant corporate force in the field.


----------



## Miner

Goldmann said:


> interesting article in todays australian...
> 
> ----
> 
> CHINA has triumphed in a 15-year quest to become the "ultimate monopolist" in the supply of rare earth metals - a dominance that industry experts say could give Beijing control over the future of consumer electronics and green technology.
> 
> 
> Moreover, China's push to remain the globally dominant player appears to have intensified. Within the past fortnight, a Chinese investment company has acquired 25 per cent of Arafura Resources, an Australian rare earth miner, and last month China Minmetals Rare Earth Company laid out plans to invest dollars 300million (pounds 212million) to cement its position as the globally dominant corporate force in the field.




Very well said Goldman

It was an Ode on the Death of Our Supremacy and Intelligence against Chinese Brain

We see but do not watch

We taught CHinese how to make money and happy with our tuition fee. Chinese learnt and applied on us taking multiple returns of our earned value

Our legal advisers work for them against our children so that Chinese and ohter nations can exploit us. They are happy with their fees. 

All short term gains for long term pains

Our universities are filled up with Asians and we are happy to get them filled where as our children merely graduate after year 10 to know nothing about business and surrender to either back pain, work related injury or sucked by foreign invasion in SHE WILL BE RIGHT MATE environment. 

Our business gurus at Rio decline to accept BHPB offer and then get sucked by Chinalco

LYC is similar story : With such a strong position they closed the projects and then we will get our cars. mobiles, I pods made in Chinese and we will afford to pay them but not to revive our own factories

Our workers  and unions prefer (Harvey Beef, Pacific) to close shops and factories letting our business goes to Chian than accepting lower wages when we need to do so. 

We do not want to study but prefer to import immigrants as ready made solutions from South Africa, UK, India, Singapore, Middle East. High supply loose jobs then the migrants stay back, apply for PR and Citizenship, drive taxis when they loose jobs whereas we go for fishing or busking and exploit our sickie system  . God Loves our own country

Very sad irony and we all are sufferers


----------



## fmoraes

I've noticed that the stock price is moving again. Does anyone know what is going on? Any word on new financing?

Francisco


----------



## gamefisherman

Does anyone have any idea why the volumes are so large at present with lyc?

Is is worth getting out now, my partner owns some, and take a loss, or is it worth holding onto for the long term?

price bought .325??

does anyone know if these guys are doing anything at the moment?

Thanx


----------



## The Muffin Man

gamefisherman, here is a link to one of the more recent updates;

http://www.lynascorp.com/content/up..._Suspension_of_Project_170209_final695622.pdf

More can be found on LYC's ASX page and website. Works on the Mt Weld project have currently been suspended due to financing difficulties. A possible time frame given with relation to re-financing in the announcement about was 6-12 months. The announcement was made mid-Feb. Going by that time line, it would be pretty optimistic to attribute the current share price rise to possibly securing financing, but who knows?

I've only just come across this company and have to admit I'm a little interested. I've had a quick read through the thread, and it seems that, as with a lot of miners currently, financing will be the issue. I might sit tight and keep watch on this one, see how it travels in the next few months. Anyone else with thoughts to add?


----------



## nioka

Lynas have gone into a trading halt at the request of the company,pending an announcement. The announcement will be in regard to financing arrangements.With the SP falling to lows around 12c recently LYC offered an excellent opportunity for bargain hunters. Buys at that price are allready showing a 120% return proving that there is still money to be made in this market even with the GFC.
Lynas were never in serious problems as I saw the situation because the management acted early and halted spending to maintain a positive cash balance.
The market for their product has probably improved with increased world usage and limited supply outside China.
In earlier posts I stated that I was sellingand intended to reenter closer to the start of production in Malaysia. I have reentered while the bargain prices were on offer and intend to hold long term at this stage.


----------



## The Muffin Man

I will be watching closely for the release of the announcement too. This could get interesting, as financing seems to be the major hurdle the company has to clear before share price appreciation.


----------



## nioka

Watch for LYS to come out of its trading halt. It is still trading in the USA and yesterday it closed 52% higher. At one stage being up 72%. Good news for refinancing must be on the way.


----------



## The Muffin Man

I would suggest those interested in this company read the announcement that has come out today regarding Chinese investment in the company. This is massive news, and ensures that this company will most certainly become a producer.


----------



## nioka

The future of Lynas is now secure but at a very high cost. To sell a 52% controlling interest to the chinese in order to obtain the funding is akin to selling the farm. 
I should not complain as the financial reward from LYC has been exceptional but I am disappointed that another Australian company has had to sell itself to overseas interests in order to survive. I'm disappointed that the current shareholders were not given an opportunity of investing further in the company via an SPP earlier on for the financing of the project.
I'm disappointed even though my original investment returned 300% and at today's price my current investment is showing 176% return. What disappoints me even more is that I am having trouble finding a good aussie company to use as an investment avenue.


----------



## The Muffin Man

With a controlling stake going possibly going to the Chinese, does anyone see any Government type foreign investment hurdles that may not get cleared?

I bought in today at 40c to go for a ride and see what happens! I couldn't bring myself to buy in earlier, as I only came across this company after the initial funding fell through and wanted to see if new funding was available before buying in. I missed the initial jump this morning, but didn't want to risk the company floundering if no funding could be found. Interesting times ahead I'm sure.


----------



## White_Knight

Another blow to Australian sovereignty...


----------



## White_Knight

Also, you would think they cant trade much higher in the short term given the massive equity dilution about to take place?


----------



## nioka

White_Knight said:


> Also, you would think they cant trade much higher in the short term given the massive equity dilution about to take place?



I don't agree with you there. Even with the dilution the market cap is still well below that when there was still more funding to be obtained. The possibility of FIRB not approving the deal is holding the SP down as well as sellers taking profit on stock bought during the recent low prices. I suggest a price of around 60c if all the conditions are met would be a reasonable expectation with $1 possible on the start of production for those prepared to hold.I base these predictions on the stated figures for production,cost of production and expected prices for RE.
There appears little risk associated with holding if the deal goes through. DYOR.


----------



## ixalus

Given that the deal does go through. I bought this shares in this counter over a year ago at a hefty price of 90 cents. It's been giving me sleepless nights since with it's capital problems. 

I'm considering whether to average down my cost price or to use my spare cash and invest it into a gold counter RMS.

Any ideas?


----------



## johannlo

I concur with Nioka. 

I had some at 10c and sold when it got above 30, being a conservative type  but back in it @ 41c based on the same sentiments Nioka expressed. Hard to resist the urge to cash in a quick 8-10% profit for a few hours risk, its already hit 44c today.


----------



## SBH

White_Knight said:


> Another blow to Australian sovereignty...






To Kevin Rudd, (Im sure you read this forum) ... this cant be allowed to go ahead!! 

This would be a big blow to australian and any non chinese greentech for the decades ahead. To gift china a monopoly of rare earths would be incredibly short sighted and down right dangerous. Im sure the US will be hugely opposed to this deal. I hope sanity prevails (share prices arent everything people). 

The whole point of LYC was to be an alternate supply to the chinese dominance so its clear the LYC board has sold out big time. Shareholders should vote this down if kevin is too gutless to do so.


----------



## J.B.Nimble

Good news for shareholders but what a tragedy. With Chinese money driving ARU and now controlling LYC, the middle kingdom has regained absolute control of the rare earth market for the forseeable future. Hmmm, I wonder how long until China takes an interest in GGG...


----------



## Scorez

Greetings Lynas holders / traders...

Indeed - way to corner the market China...

I was on LYC at 15 but not patient enough to hold with such high volume trading and the SP going no-where for a coupla months or so. The fundamentals are a no-brainer so big lesson in patience there.

**I would like to raise this issue though...

Don't we have something in this country called "THE FUTURE FUND" !!!
How many millions / billions are in this fund????

And following from that - why the freaking hell aren't we INVESTING this in development of such no-brainer resource projects like this and other distressed miners here rather than exotic toxic derivatives - and letting those with greater forsight or cashola take market strategic positions.???

A final point - with future advances in goetech and Australia being such a massive continent just maybe, hopefully more world class deposits may be discovered in the future - well food for thought... development time notwithstanding.

cheers,
Scorez


----------



## nioka

I am sending Wayne Swan a message asking that he rejects the Chinese deal with LYC for a majority shareholding and restricts the deal to a maximum of 45%. 

I believe it is not in the best interests of current holders, Australias interest or the interest of the world at large for the Chinese government owned company to have ,not only a majority holding in LYC, but control of the bulk of the world's supply of such an important resource.

The fact that the SP of LYC dropped on the USA pink sheets last night means that the majority sale is not a positive for shareholders also has implications.( down 18.5%)

If anyone here feels that they have the same opinion,whether they are shareholders or not, they should also message the government to register disapproval.


----------



## nioka

Scorez said:


> Greetings Lynas holders / traders...
> 
> Don't we have something in this country called "THE FUTURE FUND" !!!
> How many millions / billions are in this fund????
> 
> And following from that - why the freaking hell aren't we INVESTING this in development of such no-brainer resource projects like this and other distressed miners here rather than exotic toxic derivatives - and letting those with greater forsight or cashola take market strategic positions.???



The futures fund was a con job. The futures fund is the super fund for public servants etc. As such it will be invested by the fund as they see fit and not used by the government.

Having said that I believe it would be a good investment for that fund and indeed a good investment for any super fund.


----------



## The Muffin Man

nioka, I have to disagree on a few points. Would you judge how the market has interpreted the announcement by the reaction in the US pink sheets, or by the price movement on the ASX the day of the release? The share price was up 50% on the ASX, and had been up quite some way as you yourself mentioned in the US before the small retrace last night. So judging the market sentiment on a slide of 18% in the US after such a large rise in the days before is a little rich I would think. It is still up an enormous amount when you compare the price now to what it was a week ago.

I think that you, as well as other holders, should be careful when trying to harpoon this deal. Do you really think that current shareholders would be willing to tip in the required amounts through SPP's etc to get operations up and running? You might think so, but larger shareholders may not be so willing, especially in the current environment. And while LYC had $40m in the bank, most of that was going to be used to pay out works regarding the operations that were suspended. So, the cash situation isn't all rosy, hence the $15m working capital facility that LYC negotiated within the deal. LYC would have spent a lot of time developing this deal, and if it were not to proceed, the company could find itself in a lot of trouble cash wise. A few things to consider. I think that those with a lot invested in LYC will be trying to push this through.

How is the Future Fund a con job? Wasn't it always set up to cover the future superannuation liabilities of the Government?


----------



## Scorez

nioka said:


> The futures fund was a con job. The futures fund is the super fund for public servants etc. As such it will be invested by the fund as they see fit and not used by the government.
> 
> Having said that I believe it would be a good investment for that fund and indeed a good investment for any super fund.




Point taken, and reiterated by Muffin Man...

- - -

It just appears we have a short term vision and have dropped the ball on opportunity across the sector that should be 10 fold.

Oh that's right, the GFC - everyone caught with their pants down.

It is still a no-brainer in my opinion. 

Cheers,
Scorez


----------



## nioka

The Muffin Man said:


> nioka, I have to disagree on a few points. Would you judge how the market has interpreted the announcement by the reaction in the US pink sheets, or by the price movement on the ASX the day of the release? The share price was up 50% on the ASX, and had been up quite some way as you yourself mentioned in the US before the small retrace last night. So judging the market sentiment on a slide of 18% in the US after such a large rise in the days before is a little rich I would think. It is still up an enormous amount when you compare the price now to what it was a week ago.
> 
> I think that you, as well as other holders, should be careful when trying to harpoon this deal. Do you really think that current shareholders would be willing to tip in the required amounts through SPP's etc to get operations up and running? You might think so, but larger shareholders may not be so willing, especially in the current environment. And while LYC had $40m in the bank, most of that was going to be used to pay out works regarding the operations that were suspended. So, the cash situation isn't all rosy, hence the $15m working capital facility that LYC negotiated within the deal. LYC would have spent a lot of time developing this deal, and if it were not to proceed, the company could find itself in a lot of trouble cash wise. A few things to consider. I think that those with a lot invested in LYC will be trying to push this through.
> 
> How is the Future Fund a con job? Wasn't it always set up to cover the future superannuation liabilities of the Government?




Nobody is trying to harpoon the deal. Just trying to get a better deal, one that does not allow china to manipulate the worlds supply of rare earths. There is more at stake here than just the short term value of LYC shares.  The company is not in severe financial trouble. It has just had to stop the progress on a short term basis.

I hold OZL shares and when the govt stopped the original sale to MM there were also cries of the deal being scuttled but in the end the new deal is much better than the first one. The same will happen with here. The chinese deal hard but they do bargain in the end.

LYC have a product that the world needs and must have. 

 With regards to the futures fund being a con. The govt sold a national asset to fund it and by calling it the futures fund the average Joe thought it was for Australias future not just for the future of a few. 
I started full time work in 1947. That year the govt started a wage deduction into a pension fund saying that all australians would get a pension on reaching the retirment age. A few years later another government transferred the fund to consolidated revenue and kept the deduction as extra tax. Then another government introduced the means test. That too was a con.


----------



## nioka

News article from Australian business March 10,

http://www.theaustralian.news.com.au/business/story/0,28124,25162769-30538,00.html

CHINA has triumphed in a 15-year quest to become the "ultimate monopolist" in the supply of rare earth metals -- a dominance that industry experts say could give Beijing control over the future of consumer electronics and green technology.

Industry sources believe that with China dramatically cutting its annual rare earth export quotas, the time may be rapidly approaching when it will be impossible for any company to produce a wind turbine or hybrid electric car outside the communist country. 

After a long, relentless campaign of price wars and export quota reductions, more than 95 per cent of the global supply of rare earth metals -- a group of 17 "lanthanide" elements employed in hundreds of technologies ranging from mobile phones and BlackBerrys to lasers and aviation -- is produced by China. 

Although China has the resources and refinery capacity to produce enough lanthanum, terbium, neodymium and dysprosium to satisfy a global demand that is rising at 10 per cent a year, its rare earth export allocation for the whole world this year is expected to be about 38,000 tonnes -- less than the quantity required by Japan alone. 

Furthermore, as the world tries to make itself more energy-efficient, China's dominant position will become more strategically critical because of the wide range of cutting-edge environmental technologies, such as wind turbines, low-energy light bulbs and hybrid cars, that depend heavily on the rare earth metals. 

Jack Lifton, an expert on rare earths, said: "Deng Xiaoping's comment in 1997, where he said that China would be for rare earth metals what the Middle East was to oil, has become a very stark reality. The world has to wake up and start thinking of this group of elements as the 'technology metals' without which there will be no technology. 

"China is already working out how these metals are going to give its companies a competitiveness that the rest of the world will find very difficult to match." 

China's rising strength in rare earth supply and its apparent willingness to use that as "a 21st-century economic weapon" have triggered what government sources in Tokyo told The Times was an invisible tsunami of panic in Japanese industry, which in turn has called on the Government to fight its corner with Beijing. 

Japan, which imports nearly 100 per cent of its rare earths from China, sees the group of elements as a probable battleground for future trade wars. 

Toyota and other big carmakers are hurrying to secure alternative supplies in Vietnam and Malaysia. Mines in the US that were forced out of business by price wars may be brought back into use. 

Yet many industry observers believe that Beijing may engineer a global supply crunch before any serious rival sources become available. 

China's strategy, said Yoichi Sato, head of the rare earth division of Mitsui, suggested a complex game being played between Beijing and the world's rare earth consumers. The perceived idea behind China restricting its rare earth exports is two-fold. 

Firstly, it gives its own hi-tech industries a chance to flourish and gain a huge competitive edge over rivals in Asia, Europe and the US -- a politically useful gambit by a Government whose legitimacy lies in the provision of jobs and economic growth. 

Secondly, it may force foreign companies to move their hi-tech factories and research centres to China to circumvent quotas, a move that Japanese companies will resist for fear of losing industrial secrets. 

Mr Sato also believes China will seek to use its existing monopoly status to crush any competition that emerges. Although about 42 per cent of worldwide reserves of rare earth ores lie outside China, very few places have significant refinery capacity. 

Mr Sato said: "Of course many people are looking at establishing alternative refineries and sources outside China, but the investment is not necessarily a sound one because of the threat of price revenge by China. If new projects emerge, as they have recently in Malaysia and Australia, China could just drop its prices and force rivals out of business." 

Prospects of developing the industry outside China have been hit by a sudden decision by investors in Lynas, the Australian group, to pull funding for a project under which a big refinery would have been built in Malaysia for operation by the end of this year. A company source said the project, which would have given companies such as Toyota and Honda a welcome diversity of supply, is unlikely now to open as scheduled. 

Moreover, China's push to remain the globally dominant player appears to have intensified. In the past fortnight, a Chinese investment company acquired 25 per cent of Arafura Resources, an Australian rare earth miner and, last month, China Minmetals Rare Earth Company laid out plans to invest $US300 million ($470 million) to cement its position as the globally dominant corporate force in the field.


----------



## The Muffin Man

Regarding LYC not being in severe financial trouble, they aren't yet. But I'm pretty sure that I read in one of their announcements that of the approx $40m cash and cash equivilents they had in the bank, $30m of that would need to have been used to pay out existing contractual obligationas to do with the constuction operations. That would leave the company with $10m in the bank to effectively operate. That is not a lot of money when you consider that the company has administration expenses of $4-5m per quarter. A financing deal of some sort needs to be secured in the very near future, and a SPP or equivilent is not very attractive with a share price of 30c or below.


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## johannlo

Er muffinman doesn't the new Chinese deal give them more operating cash? Noika quotes 15m can't remember myself what was in the announcement.

Disclaimer: holds LYC, ethnic chinese (lol)


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## The Muffin Man

johannlo said:


> Er muffinman doesn't the new Chinese deal give them more operating cash? Noika quotes 15m can't remember myself what was in the announcement.
> 
> Disclaimer: holds LYC, ethnic chinese (lol)




Yes it does. I'm talking about if the deal, for whatever reason, does not proceed.

My last post was looking at LYC's cash position if the deal had not eventuated. I was pointing out that the company needed to act rather quickly to secure financing because after paying out contractual obligations, they would have only had approximately $10m in the bank.


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## johannlo

Fair point, thanks for your clarification. 

This is a bit of a guess but even if the deal does not eventuate the cash will come around one way or another, even if SP takes a hammering in the short term (3-6 months), given the rich resource they are sitting atop of.

Or maybe its just investors superstition (this stock has been great for me trading in the past)


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## The Muffin Man

There are a few interesting points raised in the presentation released today;

- CNMC "share the vision of Lynas, the business model will not change." I'd like to know what safeguards are/can be put in place to ensure that the business model will not change. Currently the business model revolves around focusing on meeting the demand of Japan, Europe, and the US. Does one of the safeguards include the board being expanded to 8, with the chairman having the 'casting vote?' Curtis will remain the chairman, so I would assume he would use his vote to ensure the business model won't change. I'm unsure as to what this means to be honest, any thoughts from others would be welcomed.

- The $15m working capital facility will be available to LYC even if the deal does not go through. If the deal does not go through, the $15m will turn into a 2 year loan (page 4) I guess it's comforting to know that, if the deal doesn't eventuate, the company will have enough cash to continue for some time to come (albeit not moving forward with construction) That has laid to rest my major fear of cashflow problems.


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## nioka

The Muffin Man said:


> There are a few interesting points raised in the presentation released today;
> 
> - CNMC "share the vision of Lynas, the business model will not change." I'd like to know what safeguards are/can be put in place to ensure that the business model will not change. Currently the business model revolves around focusing on meeting the demand of Japan, Europe, and the US. Does one of the safeguards include the board being expanded to 8, with the chairman having the 'casting vote?' Curtis will remain the chairman, so I would assume he would use his vote to ensure the business model won't change. I'm unsure as to what this means to be honest, any thoughts from others would be welcomed.




I can't see that there can be any guarantee that the business model will not change. Any vote is in the hands of one man and he is particularly friendly with the chinese side of any discussion on policy. What happens if he ;
1. Dies or becomes incapicated
2. Sells his holding in Lynas.
3. Retires
4. Gets voted off the board in the future.
5. Gets involved in other companies and loses interest in Lynas.
 Any one or all of these things and many others are possible. No company should have their future tied up in one man.


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## renim

hey
if the chinese help this through a cash shortfall
and if the chinese are not taking this off the market
and it makes aussie jobs
and pays aussie taxes
then it sounds good to me.
ps follow the money, bet on the chinese


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## vincent191

LYC went around for months, hat in hand, looking for financial support. They saw their share price plummet to very low levels. No Australian Company or fund managers showed any interest.

 At one time it looked like it will all collapse into one big heap. They had to look towards the Chinese for funding to get them going again. Now we hear people complain that it should never had been sold to Chinese interest.

Well, I say this much to the critics "where were you when the chips were down?"


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## nioka

Part2. (some paragraphs left out.report split into 2 pts to be accepted)

In surveying the iron ores of Bayan Obo for the purpose of setting up a contained, vertically integrated, and thus hidden from prying Western eyes, steel industry it seems that Soviet geologists familiar with deposits in the Kola peninsula of the Soviet Union noted and brought to the attention of the fraternal colleagues they were training in Soviet style exploration drivers that the Bayan Obo iron was a rich source of bastnaesite, the most common hard rock ore of the rare earth elements. The rest is a convoluted history of fraternal cooperation and is best left for a spy novel featuring Chinese students at Kola trying to fit Russian mining, extraction, and separation techniques from there to the operations at Bayan Obo, where rare earth production was primitive, labor intensive, and subject to the whims of the commissars overseeing the planning and operations of the Baotou Steel Works, a great showcase of the strength of the people and the party under Chairman Mao and not to be interfered with lightly.

By 1997 when Deng Xiaoping’s dictum that “the middle east has oil, we have rare earths” had filtered to the local level in Bayan Obo, a short lived cooperation allowed an American survey team from the USGS in concert with China’s Ministry of Metallurgical Industry, to go to Bayan Obo and issue for public consumption - "The Sedimentary Carbonate-Hosted Giant Bayan Obo REE-Fe-Nb Ore deposit of Inner Mongolia, China: A Cornerstone Example For Giant Polymetallic Ore Deposits of Hydrothermal Origin." I am certain that this title was first written in Chinese to emphasize that theirs was a lot bigger than any of ours; it is traditional in the orient to write like this.

That 1997 study concluded that:

on the basis of reported estimates of total reserve(s) of 48 million metric tons (average grade 6 wt. percent Re2O3 , Drew and others, 1990) to as much as 100 million metric tons of Re2O3 of unspecified average grade (unofficial estimate from Chinese colleagues, oral comm.., 1987), Bayan Obo is the world’s largest known REE deposit. 

The report continues that “although the [total] size has not been disclosed in the Chinese literature… [it has been acknowledged based on unreported drilling data] that Bayan Obo is China’s largest niobium deposit.”

What don’t we know about Chinese resources and reserves of REOs? We’re on the way to finding out.

I will continue this discussion in the coming year. The point I am making is that western businessmen who base their long term supply requirements for rare earths not only on continued access to Chinese production of rare earths but on Chinese produced studies of resources and reserves as well as the idea that Chinese miners and refiners economically competitive with western operations are walking on thin ice. 


Recent Chinese actions in the non-Chinese rare earth mining space make it even more likely that China itself needs rare earths from the outside. What does this mean for the future of technology based products in the west?

It means that you should be looking at Canada's Avalon Rare Metals and Great Western Minerals Group both of which are listed on the TSX. It also means that you should be looking to see if the private U.S. companies, Molycorp and Thorium Energy, Inc., have plans to go public.


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## nioka

China Will Push Increased Demand for Rare Earths
Jack Lifton

Laissez-faire capitalism is alive and well in the rare earth mining sector of the economies of the United States, Canada, Australia, and the Republic of South Africa. None of these top tier industrial economies issues or funds government mandates for the exploration for, production of, or production of end-use products of the rare earth elements and/or thorium. Thus the world’s most competent, experienced, and educationally qualified mining exploration and engineering groups, have only the “free” marketplace to look for funding for such endeavors. The governments of some other nations, particularly, China, but also now including Korea and Japan as well as, most recently, the central governmental regulatory bodies of the European Union take a more pro-active role in securing for themselves, for their domestic use, supplies of materials that they consider critical to their heavy and high tech industries and to their military-industrial complexes. The rare earth elements and thorium are at the top of everyone’s list in the pro-active countries. The same is true for the “reactive” countries, such as today’s USA, Canada, and Australia, but the strength of the reaction has not yet been effective in producing civilian or military sector funding for rare earths or thorium.

At this very moment Australia's parliament is grappling with reacting to a Chinese "private" company's offer to buy 51%, i.e., control, of Australia's largest and best rare earth mining development, ASX listed Lynas Corp (LYSCF.PK), the huge Mt. Weld ore body of which is said to be ready for production.

Apparently Australia's other major rare earth mining company, ASX listed Arafura, has already been approved to sell 25% to a Chinese corporate investor with additional equity for the Chinese investor in negotiation.

In October of 2007 the National Academies published a book entitled “Minerals, Critical Minerals, And The U.S. Economy,” which was an analysis of a two year long study by a group consisting mostly of academics but which also included some selected representatives of the U.S. mining and manufacturing industries. The study identified not only which minerals and metals were critical, i.e., which ones were the bases of technologies that could not be actualized as practical devices without them, but also set out criteria for assessing the impact of the interruption of their supply on U.S. industry, the general economy, and, in an additional volume, “Managing Materials for a Twenty First century Military,” on the capability of the U.S. military to be effective in the event of the interruption of the supply of critical materials. For today’s discussion I want to reproduce the Mission Statement designated as the “Statement of Task” for the first study:

Statement of Task

Understanding the likelihood of disruptive fluctuation in the supply of critical minerals and mineral products for domestic applications, and making decisions about policies to reduce such disruptions, requires thorough understanding of national and international mineral sources, mineral production technology, the key uses of minerals and mineral products in the United States economy, and potential impediments to the mineral supply.

This study will:

Identify the critical minerals and mineral products that are essential for industry and emerging technologies in the domestic economy (addressed in Chapters 1-3 and in culminating discussion in Chapter 4);

Assess the trends in sources and production status of these critical minerals and mineral products worldwide (addressed in Chapters 3 and 4);

Examine the actual or potential constraints, including but not limited to geologic, technological, economic, and political issues, on the availability of these minerals and mineral products for domestic applications (addressed in Chapters 3 and 4);

Identify the impacts of disruptions in supply of critical minerals and mineral products on the domestic workforce and economy (addressed in Chapter 2);

Describe and evaluate the current mineral and mineral product databases and other sources of mineral information available for decision making on mineral policy issues (addressed in Chapter 5); and

Identify types of information and possible research initiatives that will enhance understanding of critical minerals and mineral products in a global context (addressed in Chapter 5).

I want to address item 3 above, because when it is analyzed in further detail, it exposes a serious flaw in strategic planning, which is that prior to assessing the impact of geological, technological, economic, and political issues on the availability of critical minerals it is first necessary to assess the credibility of the numerical data, which is the basis of your analysis. In layman’s terms it comes done to:

Is the data accurate,
Is it complete,
Is the provider truthful, or
Is the provider truthful but incapable of being correct due to ignorance, lack of the appropriate scientific background, incompetence, or inability to assess or measure the credibility of either the data or its provider of that data, and
In any of the cases above is there any hidden agenda coloring the transparency of the data?

When we accept data on resources and reserves from the PRC not only are we facing an unknown degree of data filtration for reasons of commercial competitive advantage, with which we are all, or at least should be, familiar, but also we are facing the filtering imposed by a government that mandates that if a resource level has been declared to be present by a mining operation then that operation will be required to either produce a certain minimum amount or be faced with losing its access to markets and finance through a reduction in its next production allocation. The simple fact of life that failure to meet government imposed production allocations may lead to loss of position without any hope of redeeming one’s economic (job) status or social status is far more important to a Chinese manager than accuracy in reporting the reserves upon which that allocation was based. 

In China if you set your goals lower by fudging what you think you have, or can actually produce, and then meet your goal, set for you by and in the five year plan, you have been successful. 

As recently as 1993 today’s situation, China as a the ultimate monopolist in rare earths, was far from obvious, and was not even considered likely by western observers.

In a joint survey of the rare earth’s industry published in 1993 as “International Strategic Minerals Inventory Summary Report- Rare-Earth Oxides, U.S. G.S. Survey Circular 930-N it was stated after a detailed analysis of the then known data on rare earth resources and reserves that:

The country having the greatest potential for REO (rare earth oxides-the commonly used identifier for this category) production is South Africa, which could produce 41,280 metric tons per year as compared to an actual production (1993) of 700 metric tons per year; this would be an increase of approximately 59 times the present production. The United States has the capacity to produce about 32,764 metric tons per year, which is a 50% rise over the 1989 actual production of 21,875 metric tons per year. China could undoubtedly produce more REO than is reported, especially if Bayan Obo steel slag could be successfully treated. Australia could produce 11,462 metric tons per year, about half again the present rate, if Olympic Dam and some of the placer operations introduced REO mineral recovery plants. REO output in Brazil could be raised by a factor of five with little trouble.

The difference in the quality and credibility of the data apparently was enough to cause the authors of this study, financed by the UN and the most credible commodity mineral data reporting agencies in the USA, Canada, Australia, The UK, and Germany to not state or estimate, quantitatively, their conclusions about future Chinese production in 1993.

But even before that it was clear to western educated and trained geologists familiar with mining in the Soviet Union that China was far too unsophisticated to provide reliable data on its potential mineral resources. A geologist colleague of mine told me that as he traveled across that part of the Soviet Union’s mining landscape which it was permitted for a foreign, Canadian visitor to see, he was struck even thirty years ago by the quality of the data being obtained as deposits were mapped meticulously while, in stark contrast, his conversations with Russian and other Soviet mining exploration personnel revealed that plate tectonics was not “officially” taught in Soviet universities that were training geologists. Soviet era geologists were thus not very good at the theoretical bases for exploration, he said, and to advance in the political hierarchy one did not disagree with official geological “doctrine.” Those who advanced the use of new or foreign ideas rarely got the resources to test those ideas. No one could benefit officially for example from discovering or developing a gold mine, so those mining cooperatives that did find easily fungible resources were engaged in a constant battle with bureaucrats and corrupt officials for scarce equipment, supplies, and skilled labor for all of which they traded with other similarly situated enterprises outside of the official economy. It goes without saying that “official” data on Soviet mineral resources and reserves were a total fabrication produced in Moscow to showcase Soviet “progressâ frequently with scant regard to the data even for proven resources.


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## The Muffin Man

LYC up 12.62% on the back of some strong volumes. There seems to be movement at the station, which is odd because I thought it would have traded around it's 50c range until any news re the FIRB decision.

So, what made the price jump on Friday? A counter offer? In any case, surely the Chinese offer has to be increased from 36c considering it is now trading at 58c and touched 60c during trading on Friday.


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## johannlo

Lets assume the FIRB approves the transaction. Are LYC obligated to accept the 36c price or is there room to maneuver on that one? What if a different offer comes in?

I have no hard evidence but you would think that the govt would be highly sensitive to any appearance of anti China bias after the Rio stuff. Also whilst I'm on speculation, here's hoping CMNC saw the Minmetals knockout last minute price hike and the effect that had on the Oz deal, and does something similar. Though of course in this case there's no competing offer to motivate that


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## george46

any viws on this one sems to move up solit now even when the market  moves down no news from  the gov yet must be alots off pl there on siteline


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## george46

its a worry iff this approval dont came  thay olny have  cash to last them thl mid octo
i hoppe thay get the approval


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## vincent191

Something is in the air, the sp is climbing against a falling market. Maybe the chinese cash is coming soon.


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## enigmatic

China Released there 'Rare Earths Industry Development Plan 2009-2015'

Think it stirred a few people realizing that there is huge growth in Rare Earth .
This has seemed to had some impact on LYC GGG ARU..


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## johannlo

I am confused at recent massive spikes in ARU and LYC until I saw the general spikes across all REE stocks. But is it due to that single report?

Annoyed, got stopped out of ARU trying to do a quick trade (betting on 50 support, failed but only just) and BANG this happens literally 2 days after, DOH

Cmon FIRB yes or no just give us an answer so there is some direction moving forwards!!!!!!!!!!!!


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## enigmatic

I would assume it is just on this one report.. Rare Earth seems to lose interest quiet quickly mainly i think as there arent to many players and well alot of these projects are well in the future..

I was lucky enough to pick up some more ARU at sub 50c but forgot to look at LYC..


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## bandicoot76

after looking at all the rare earth players i still think ALK's dubbo ziconia project is still the most under-rated & best value... plus it isnt a puppet with china pulling its strings! one to watch IMO 

N.B...i hold both LYC & ALK


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## ColB

LYC opened at .80 cents today and closed at .695 a fairly savage drop even considering its recent run.  

After market activity (post 4 pm) highlights several trades at .795 which I think are what they refer to as cross trades between brokers or similar.

Could one of the seasoned investor/traders on this forum please offer me their perspective on the significance of this activity and how it *may affect* tomorrows trade.

Of note also, is an after market release (5.33pm) of a 39 page September investor presentation relating to the activities of the company.

Any response appreciated


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## vincent191

Trading halt today pending an announcement about the China deal. Judging by the way the sp had been climbing I think it is good new.


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## johannlo

well well well, a nice big 'talk to the hand' from the FIRB. Makes you wonder why they took so long to go about it. 

There will be another route to raising cash (SPP looking v likely now, probably loans and / or JV thrown into mix). Just wondering how the market is going to see it in the ST? 

On the plus side any capital raising will be done at much less dilution than the pitiful 36c price of the CMNC deal and we don't surrender majority control. Could be one of those contrarian moments where the SP does the exact opposite of what you'd commonly expect, at least if some of the baying crowd sentiment seen on some of the other forums is true.


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## vincent191

THE CHINESE DEAL IS OFF!!!!!  Now lets us see what the local institutions and shareholders will do. Plenty of people didn't like the Chinese deal, now is the time to stand up and be counted. Are we ready to support this Company or is it all talk and sour grapes?

I am sure LYC has got a plan B in case the FIRB knocks back the deal, we will find out tomorrow and lets see what the sp will do. Often those that complain the most will dump the stock like a ton of hot bricks.

I have supported LYC when it was down and out, I will do the same again. I am holding on.

Reports that LYC is dead is grossly exagerated.


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## Kieran

I held LYC in from Apr-07 to Mar-08 and I'm very optimistic on the future of the company in the long term. Depending on what the SP does in the next few days I'd be looking to buy in as an opportunity to take part in any capital raising that takes place. However, IIRC, LYC has previously gone overseas to seek capital (at a very discounted rate) instead of offering the same opportunity to existing shareholders. This is most disappointing and I hope it doesn't happen again.


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## vincent191

Kieran said:


> I held LYC in from Apr-07 to Mar-08 and I'm very optimistic on the future of the company in the long term. Depending on what the SP does in the next few days I'd be looking to buy in as an opportunity to take part in any capital raising that takes place. However, IIRC, LYC has previously gone overseas to seek capital (at a very discounted rate) instead of offering the same opportunity to existing shareholders. This is most disappointing and I hope it doesn't happen again.




They had little choice at the time. The locals especially the institutions and banks dump LYC until the sp was at ridiculously low price (less than 20 cents from memory). At such a low level a rights issue to raise money from existing shareholders was out of the question.

Now that the sp is a more healthy 90 cents a rights issue is a viable option. Lets hope supporters outnumber the speculators in the next few weeks and give lyc a fair go.

There is also rumours that the Chinese may make a second bid. This is one time that rumours may work in our favour. It will help to keep the short sellers in check.

Short sell the sp down and the Chinese come back with a much higher bid and the short sellers will all be dead meat!!!


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## lucifuge

Amazes me LYC dropped around 26% today. I took the news to be somewhat positive. People have different takes I guess. Great opportunity to top up, so I did.


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## skyQuake

lucifuge said:


> Amazes me LYC dropped around 26% today. I took the news to be somewhat positive. People have different takes I guess. Great opportunity to top up, so I did.




Its ex-rights today so its only down around 1% today. (TERP 67.5c)
Morning dip was beautiful buying opp


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## TheAbyss

skyQuake said:


> Its ex-rights today so its only down around 1% today. (TERP 67.5c)
> Morning dip was beautiful buying opp




Usually a share price will align to the capital raising price which was 45 cents. 

Hope it doesn't for those who bought pre cap raising however i would anticipate it going a lot closer to the 45-50 cent range unless another Chinese offer eventuates before holders lose patience.

LYC did have to do something once the Chinese bid was scuttled by FIRB requirements as they were pretty desperate for some cash. Remember they were 40-43 cents per share prior to the Chinese announcement which is now off the table so they have managed to complete the institutional cap raising at a premium to that at least so not looking to bad.

The Chinese bid was 36 cents so holders are actually 9 cents a share better off as far as a floor price being set for the SP plus it is fully Australian owned for a while at least.

Be interesting to see whether Nick Curtis takes up his full entitlement or not (around $12 million or so required if he does). That should be telling for investors imo.

Bottom line is i would expect to see an entry price of 45-50 cents during the retail entitlement period (7th-23rd October)


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## skyQuake

TheAbyss said:


> Usually a share price will align to the capital raising price which was 45 cents.
> 
> Hope it doesn't for those who bought pre cap raising however i would anticipate it going a lot closer to the 45-50 cent range unless another Chinese offer eventuates before holders lose patience.
> 
> LYC did have to do something once the Chinese bid was scuttled by FIRB requirements as they were pretty desperate for some cash. Remember they were 40-43 cents per share prior to the Chinese announcement which is now off the table so they have managed to complete the institutional cap raising at a premium to that at least so not looking to bad.
> 
> Bottom line is i would expect to see an entry price of 45-50 cents during the retail entitlement period (7th-23rd October)




Not necessarily the case, I dun think rio travelled anywhere near $27.
It will however converge to TERP, afterwards it just depends on how people view the raising.


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## enigmatic

Well been a big fan of ARU, however looks like LYC is definitely going to be the first one out of the two to be producing. 

If everything is true about the demand of Rare earth and the Under Supply of REO, 47k short full by 2012 including the production from LYC when you consider demand is expected to be close to 180k this is close to 25% shortfall, this would have to have serious Price effects of Rare Earth material.


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## vincent191

It will be very interesting to see if the sp of LYC will get back to near $1 once all the dust settles over the capital rising.

IMO I think the sp should strengthen considerably by mid November. In the meantime keep an eye on the number of short sellers.  The number has been very high the last 3 weeks but slowly decreasing as the capital raising period draws to a close.


----------



## TheAbyss

vincent191 said:


> It will be very interesting to see if the sp of LYC will get back to near $1 once all the dust settles over the capital rising.
> 
> IMO I think the sp should strengthen considerably by mid November. In the meantime keep an eye on the number of short sellers.  The number has been very high the last 3 weeks but slowly decreasing as the capital raising period draws to a close.




Well tomorrow is the closing date for the retail entitlement offer. Didn't get to the 45-50 cent range but close enough with decent support keeping the Sp above the offer price. Happy enough with this result and have entered this morning.

Exercise rights price (TERP) of 67.5 cents first target for me. Further upside probable but not guaranteed based on current fundamentals etc.


----------



## ep20072008

I had ever been worked in the industry very close to rare earth. so i am quite familiar with the application of it. (computer, printer, car, mobile phone, camera) actually everyone use it. so for the long run, it only could be consumed more and more unless a whole new technique will be invented. i am quite positive about the demand. also for your information the rare earth stock in china code :SHA :600111 trade around AUD5.00 in shanghai stock market. so i really do not think it is difficult for LYC back to 1 dollar after all money issue settled.


----------



## skc

ep20072008 said:


> I had ever been worked in the industry very close to rare earth. so i am quite familiar with the application of it. (computer, printer, car, mobile phone, camera) actually everyone use it. so for the long run, it only could be consumed more and more unless a whole new technique will be invented. i am quite positive about the demand. also for your information the rare earth stock in china code :SHA :600111 trade around AUD5.00 in shanghai stock market. so i really do not think it is difficult for LYC back to 1 dollar after all money issue settled.




Thanks for the heads up. But the share price alone of China code SHA means very little. Do you have better information in any of the comparable metrics (e.g. $ / resource or reserve)?


----------



## vincent191

For the life of me I cannot understand why someone would take up a rights issue at 45 cents and sell for less than that almost immediately. Surely, if you think it is not a good buy then why take up the offer.


----------



## skyQuake

vincent191 said:


> For the life of me I cannot understand why someone would take up a rights issue at 45 cents and sell for less than that almost immediately. Surely, if you think it is not a good buy then why take up the offer.




Because at the time of the offer its trading at a fair prem to the issue price of $0.45.
However between BPay date and trading date, the price can fall significantly.


----------



## ep20072008

based on informationi on webiste of  Australian Mines Atlas: 

 China holds 27 Mt (32%) of the EDR for REO, followed by the Commonwealth of Independent States 19 Mt (22.5%) REO and the USA with 13 Mt (15.4%). Australia accounts for 1.98% of world EDR with 1.65 Mt REO.

The main types of REE deposits make up the largest REO resources in the world with the Bayan Obo deposit in China, which is predominantly REE-iron ores with bastnasite and monazite as the main REE bearing minerals, totalling at least 48 Mt REO at a grade of 6%. The only production of REOs from a carbonatite has been from the Mountain Pass deposit in California, which has total resources of 1.8 Mt REO at an average grade of about 9% REO. Deposits associated with carbonatite laterites include Araxa in Brazil with 8.1 Mt REO at 1.8% and Mt Weld in WA with 1.74 Mt REO at 9.7%. Other deposit categories include a vein type at Nolans Bore in the Northern Territory (NT) and an alkaline trachyte deposit at Toongi in New South Wales (NSW) along with a peralkaline syenite deposit at Lovozero in Russia.

Lynas started mining the Mt Weld deposit, which is a laterite over alkaline carbonatite complex, in WA in 2007 and by early 2008, the measured (2.21 Mt at 14.7% REO), indicated (3.84 Mt at 11.5% REO) and inferred resources (6.19 Mt at 6.8% REO) totalled 12.2 Mt at 9.7% REO with an REO content of 1.18 Mt. In another part of the carbonatite complex there are indicated (1.5 Mt) and inferred (36.2 Mt) resources totalling 37.7 Mt, which include total lanthanides at 1.16% and 0.09% Y2O3


----------



## exgeo

From Jim Jubak (the web's most followed investment columnist, apparently):



> Jubak's Picks
> Friday, November 06, 2009
> Buy Lynas (LYSCY)
> 
> Lanthanum. Neodymium. Dysprosium. Terbium. The words don’t exactly roll off the tongue. But they’re the names of four of the seventeen rare earth elements. You can’t build a Prius, an accurate missile, or a wind turbine without them. And we’re not talking about trace amounts of these elements either. The electric motor in a Toyota Prius uses about two pounds of neodymium in its permanent magnets. Each Prius battery also uses 20 to 30 pounds of another rate earth, lanthanum. The huge magnets in wind turbines use about a ton of neodymium for every one megawatt of generating capacity. (For more on rare earth minerals, see this September 11 post .)
> 
> China controls about 95% of the global supply of rare earth minerals. And until September 24, China Non-Ferrous Mining looked like it was going to buy 52% of Lynas (LYSCY), the Australian company that owns the world’s richest rare earths deposit. But Australian regulators said no to any deal that gave Chinese investors majority control and China Non-Ferrous Mining walked away. That left Lynas scrambling to find alternative financing. The company finally did in early November, and now it can move ahead with construction of a concentrating plant to do initial processing of the 773,300 metric tons of ore the company has stock piled at the site of its mine, as well as with the construction of an advanced processing plant in Malaysia that produce rare earth minerals ready for export. (For more on the details of that financing, see this corresponding post.)
> 
> You can buy either the Australian shares (LYSCF) that traded for 46 cents a share on November 6 if your broker has a decent foreign desk and doesn’t charge too much in commission for an overseas purchase or the US American depositary receipts (ADR: LYSCY) trading at $22.25 on November 6. That’s easier and cheaper, but the ADRs don’t trade with much volume, so you need to be careful and use limits when placing an order. The shares and the ADRs are weighted so you get the same stake of the company no matter what you buy. And despite the low Australian price per share, Lynas isn’t a penny stock. The company has a market capitalization of $595 million.
> 
> As of November 6, I’m adding shares of Lynas to Jubak’s Picks with a target price of $29 a share by October 2010.
> 
> Full disclosure: I own shares of Lynas ADRs in my personal portfolio. I will buy more three days after this is posted



......................................................................


----------



## GumbyLearner

exgeo said:


> From Jim Jubak (the web's most followed investment columnist, apparently):
> 
> ......................................................................




My nan has a Prius only driven to Church on Sundays. 

She could have driven it to Alice Springs, Darwin, Cairns or even Perth... But since the character limit of the thread is satisfied. **** YOUR RAMP!


----------



## Zepplin

another day with LYC on the slide. I'm a long term investor, but i must admit seeing the sp fall when the supply/demand conditions in its market are great is a little fustrating.


----------



## Largesse

too many shares on issue and company is currently overvalued

don't know whats so hard for all to comprehend?


----------



## Miner

Largesse said:


> too many shares on issue and company is currently overvalued
> 
> don't know whats so hard for all to comprehend?




Hypothetically what do we say about LYC if the Mt Weld project takes its start ?
Technically LYC has a solid position with its product.

I am hoping in a month or two the embargo on its production stop will be over and then we will start smiling.

DYOR


----------



## Zepplin

See Link Below - South Korea's about to commence rare earth stockpiling 

metalsplace.com/news/articles/16430/s-korea-opens-holding-facility-to-stockpile-rare-minerals/


----------



## Joe Blow

Largesse said:


> too many shares on issue and company is currently overvalued
> 
> don't know whats so hard for all to comprehend?




If you are going to make the assertion that the stock is overvalued then please provide your reasons. Just saying it isn't enough.


----------



## johannlo

Inevitable overhang from SPP. I wish they priced it at 50c plus but still 45c to everyone is better than 33c to a single large predator. I'm still confused as to why with a SP of 90c they chose such a low figure for the SPP. If they say offered a SPP at 55c the uptake would have still been awesome and now we would be hanging around the high 50s mark not the high 40s. 


long term nothing has changed. We have the design for our plant in malaysia ready to roll that that in itself is a big tick that a lot of other asx rare earths hopefuls do not = we go into production a year or two ahead of anyone else, assuming all goes well (touch wood etc.). I'm no longer trading this one but holding on for the multi bagger return. 

But for heavens sake, $29 bucks by October, you'd be laughed out of even hotcopper lol


----------



## skyQuake

The article is not a ramp, its $29 by Oct 2010

The ADRs are 50:1, right now LYSCY is trading at around $23 

That 30% upside prices it at 65c. LYC was trading around those levels a month ago!


----------



## exgeo

The US $29.00 price target is for the *ADR's*, not the aussie-listed shares (and it's Jim Jubak's pt, not mine). At a ratio of 50:1 (one ADR represents 50 LYC shares) that gives a price target of AU$ 0.62 per aussie share using USD/AUD rate of 93c, according to Mr. Jim.


----------



## TheAbyss

Perhaps LYC read the article after all. SP increase of 11% today on decent volume. No real reason why today for an 11% increase though that i can see. Any one have any suggestions?


----------



## Zepplin

I think its because they reported to the market that they had finished the share placement. All the shares were taken up. This removes the risk of not having sufficient finance to finish the project


----------



## Miner

TheAbyss said:


> Perhaps LYC read the article after all. SP increase of 11% today on decent volume. No real reason why today for an 11% increase though that i can see. Any one have any suggestions?




If I can punt then the production is to be restarted.
To fill up the balance space for 100 character restriction please see my earlier post on LYC and watch this space.


----------



## ozrob

LYC has been steadily increasing in price today and is currently at .595 and has been as high as .60 
Anyone know what's behind this 9-10% increase.


----------



## vincent191

The capital rising is all done and those who are in it for a quick profit have mostly sold out and gone (hopefully). LYC had a road show in Hong Kong and it was a good presentation

More indications are showing that the demand for rare earth (REE) is exceeding supply. LYC is the richest (not largest) deposit of REE and is well underway to begin production in 12 to 18 months. It will be one of the few producers outside of China and buyers are already showing strong support.

Also it is forecasted that the price of REE will be going up and the USD may be over the worst in 12 to 18 months, it is all positive and at today's close of 60 cents it is cheap if things go according to plan. I repeat cheap if all go according to plan, DYOR and what is acceptable risk to me may not be your pound/kilo of REE.


----------



## Miner

vincent191 said:


> The capital rising is all done and those who are in it for a quick profit have mostly sold out and gone (hopefully). LYC had a road show in Hong Kong and it was a good presentation
> 
> More indications are showing that the demand for rare earth (REE) is exceeding supply. LYC is the richest (not largest) deposit of REE and is well underway t*o begin production in 12 to 18 months*. It will be one of the few producers outside of China and buyers are already showing strong support.
> 
> Also it is forecasted that the price of REE will be going up and the USD may be over the worst in 12 to 18 months, it is all positive and at today's close of 60 cents it is cheap if things go according to plan. I repeat cheap if all go according to plan, DYOR and what is acceptable risk to me may not be your pound/kilo of REE.



Hi Vincent 

I am just curious how you drew the point that the production is 12 to 18 months away. Mt Weld was very much happening when they closed it. They got the money and if writing on the wall is right, with market drive (you were right to point the demand supply gap) LYC by any means, should be back to production much earlier than 12 months. This is how I see and surely LYC directors have more brains than me.


----------



## gjnj1962

Hi miner
re your couriosity of hi vincent comment on lyc to take 12-18m before finished product out of malaysia can be delivered i am more than courious, i am concerned,when i read lyc report that this could be the case and knowing they advised the market when they had  aquired the necessary $ to restart they could re start swiftly,lyc also indicated recently( after they recieved $450m )they were reconsidering certain functions within the malaysian set up,whats this mean. 
 question, are they having thoughts about relocating to  another site for the finishing plant namely AUSTRALIA after all they have pulled out before from a firm commitment...china, my concern is part of our attitude to the lyc sp is based on the fact we believe lyc will be 1st cab off the rank to supply the world market outside of china but if they start all over again to  attempt to build another finishing plant this can give some of lyc compeditors a better chance to be 1st cab.nick curtis said 5-10 years from discovery to finish product, that was the past if the us gov sees the urgency to produce the product quicker it certainly can be done,much quicker ,did you read jack liftons report oct 15th 09''rare earth crisis 2009''part 1 page 5 quote:aust gov is now questioning the business model of lyc'' un quote asking why not have complete production in aussie!!!I hold lyc stock and have been buying& selling it  since 2005.


----------



## Miner

gjnj1962 said:


> Hi miner
> re your couriosity of hi vincent comment on lyc to take 12-18m before finished product out of malaysia can be delivered i am more than courious, i am concerned,when i read lyc report that this could be the case and knowing they advised the market when they had  aquired the necessary $ to restart they could re start swiftly,lyc also indicated recently( after they recieved $450m )they were reconsidering certain functions within the malaysian set up,whats this mean.
> question, are they having thoughts about relocating to  another site for the finishing plant namely AUSTRALIA after all they have pulled out before from a firm commitment...china, my concern is part of our attitude to the lyc sp is based on the fact we believe lyc will be 1st cab off the rank to supply the world market outside of china but if they start all over again to  attempt to build another finishing plant this can give some of lyc compeditors a better chance to be 1st cab.nick curtis said 5-10 years from discovery to finish product, that was the past if the us gov sees the urgency to produce the product quicker it certainly can be done,much quicker ,did you read jack liftons report oct 15th 09''rare earth crisis 2009''part 1 page 5 quote:aust gov is now questioning the business model of lyc'' un quote asking why not have complete production in aussie!!!I hold lyc stock and have been buying& selling it  since 2005.




Dear gjnj1962

I saw my name in your post.

I am unsure if you have asked me any question or some one.

Please consider to repeat the message with due justice for paragraphs, formats, full stop and commas.  I just could not read it. 

It helps to read your message and get the the communication right.

No offence but please let us enjoy your post too.

Regards


----------



## vincent191

Miner said:


> Hi Vincent
> 
> I am just curious how you drew the point that the production is 12 to 18 months away. Mt Weld was very much happening when they closed it. They got the money and if writing on the wall is right, with market drive (you were right to point the demand supply gap) LYC by any means, should be back to production much earlier than 12 months. This is how I see and surely LYC directors have more brains than me.





I got the timetable for production from LYC's presenation when they announced the China deal. I listen to it against and right at the end the target date for production was end of 2010.

Please look at their latest Hong Kong presentation and judge for yourself. It is a huge project and they have only done the site work, piling & foundations. They have also ordered all the machines that require a long lead time. Production in 12 to 18 minths is a very agressive target.

For any new entrants from final approval to production requires between 4 to 5 years (Mineweb).  Thus LYC has a headstart amongst new REE producers outside of China.

I think you might have mistaken the mounds of ore they have dug up in Mt Weld. LYC still have to finish building and fitout the concentrate plant in Mt Weld and then ship it to the vastly unfinished plant in Malaysia for final processing before they have a marketable product.

The global recovery has only just started and I think the price of REE will start to peak in 12 to 18 months and therefore I think the LYC timing is almost perfect.


----------



## Miner

vincent191 said:


> I got the timetable for production from LYC's presenation when they announced the China deal. I listen to it against and right at the end the target date for production was end of 2010.
> 
> Please look at their latest Hong Kong presentation and judge for yourself. It is a huge project and they have only done the site work, piling & foundations. They have also ordered all the machines that require a long lead time. Production in 12 to 18 minths is a very agressive target.
> 
> For any new entrants from final approval to production requires between 4 to 5 years (Mineweb).  Thus LYC has a headstart amongst new REE producers outside of China.
> 
> I think you might have mistaken the mounds of ore they have dug up in Mt Weld. LYC still have to finish building and fitout the concentrate plant in Mt Weld and then ship it to the vastly unfinished plant in Malaysia for final processing before they have a marketable product.
> 
> The global recovery has only just started and I think the price of REE will start to peak in 12 to 18 months and therefore I think the LYC timing is almost perfect.




OK Vincent

Thanks

I am taking your point and looks more reasonable.

It looks I was a bit mixed up and thanks again


----------



## gjnj1962

hi miner.
that was my 1st real go and boy did i botch it,thank you for your courteous words.when you hit 72 you go a bit gar gar at times 18 months ago i could not spell komputa now i got one!!!now back to business, my current concern is lyc having sufficient funds for a couple of weeks now to finance completion of the malaysian plant, have not yet advised the market when they intend to re continue the completion.if they decide to relocate elswhere to build their finishing plant,(as they did with china) then the time taken to get the finshed product to market will be delayed further,at the moment lyc look like being first cab off the rank to supply outside of china,being a stock holder this is very comforting news  and adds good security to the sp.but there are other reo mining co who could also be a threat as to who will be the 1st cab.the U.S. could do it if they have the need to. i wont go into the U.S. details but it is related to their protection of the security of their national defence and to the yanks that is priority one.if lyc advise they intend to contiue with malaysia then most of this post was a waste, but if they dont then we have a new ball game as far as the depth of security of our sp go.must go its almost 1 am no more discos for me i just sit in front of my komputa!


----------



## oldblue

Nice update from LYC with all the ducks coming onto line.

Capital raised; construction progress at Mt Weld and in Malaysia; sales contracts extended.

But production is still at least 12 months away and a lot can happen in that time. Based on what we know at this stage and conservative product prices, does anyone have a line on just how profitable this company will be once Stage 1 is up and running? 

Vincent?

Anyone?


----------



## exgeo

Patersons Securities does. They cover the stock and the report is available on the Lynas website...........................


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## oldblue

exgeo said:


> Patersons Securities does. They cover the stock and the report is available on the Lynas website...........................




Thanks, exgeo.

That's the last place I'd think to look.



Must bear in mind that Patersons is the house broker, of course.


----------



## vincent191

oldblue said:


> Nice update from LYC with all the ducks coming onto line.
> 
> Capital raised; construction progress at Mt Weld and in Malaysia; sales contracts extended.
> 
> But production is still at least 12 months away and a lot can happen in that time. Based on what we know at this stage and conservative product prices, does anyone have a line on just how profitable this company will be once Stage 1 is up and running?




That is a $64 question. It depends on the market price of REE. LYC's pre-sale contracts does not lock in a price. Therefore if REE prices go up LYC will get the benefits. How profitable will depend on the selling price at the time and how cost efficient LYC is.

All current indications are the demand for REE exceeds supply and expectations are for prices to go up and LYC is expecting to sell whatever they can produce.

So everything is looking good but nothing is 100% until the cash is in the bank.


----------



## Miner

vincent191 said:


> That is a $64 question. It depends on the market price of REE. LYC's pre-sale contracts does not lock in a price. Therefore if REE prices go up LYC will get the benefits. How profitable will depend on the selling price at the time and how cost efficient LYC is.
> 
> All current indications are the demand for REE exceeds supply and expectations are for prices to go up and LYC is expecting to sell whatever they can produce.
> 
> So everything is looking good but nothing is 100% until the cash is in the bank.




I am wondering if the production is 12 months away why are they filling up positions to be effective from March 10 ? All are operational roles including maintenance manager 

DNH


----------



## vincent191

There ain't too many RRE plants outside of China, so I guess some of the skills are not easy to find. It sounds to me that it is a good move to engage a Maintenance manager during the construction and commissioning phase. The person may have some input in the process afterall he will be running the machines when it goes into production. Kind of on the job training.

I hear car mechanics go to the manufacturing plants for training before they commence repairing cars at a latter stage. Maybe this is something similar.


----------



## Wysiwyg

I have read two reports over the last week about China reducing rare earth exports and a forecast that most of the product will be for Chinese use. The other interesting factor to me is the greater use of rare earths in modern time. Lynas boast the world's richest rare earth element resource. 

A story on Rare Earths


> Western mines re-open for business
> 
> China actually has only 53 percent of world supplies within its borders. In the West, overproduction and low prices in the 1990s caused most mines to close. The recent increase in demand has overturned that situation. A kilo of neodymium goes for 22 dollars now, five times as much as in 2002. Dysprosium's value is ten times what it was in 2002.





Arufura is the only other company I found that look close to actually producing in 2012.


----------



## pops11

Alkane is producing but in a smaller capicity right now but they have sent samples off late last year to Japan and other Europe Countries good read threw there ANN's

LYC is the one for me tho and this year they will do alot better, money was the key issue.


----------



## Solitus

Announcement pre-open this morning - Lynas have a fixed-price contract now with Abesque to complete design and construction of the processing plant at Mount Weld.

They expect site mobilisaiton to be in April, and first Ore in December.  Looks like it'll be a good year for them - especially if there's more noise in the media about Chinese export restrictions on rare-earths.

I bought in earlier this week - the chart said to me that it was coming out of a period of being heavily oversold and looking ready to bounce off the 38% fib retracement @48c with some movement next week.  Supported by Stochastic and MACD cross, so I'm now holding a parcel at an average of 49c.  

I'm probably in this for the long-haul, with the global pressures on these metals and very limited production outside the restricted Chinese market.  Of course, I'm not a financial analyst or advisor, I'm just a regular spare-time spare-cash investor, so don't act on what I say, be responsible for your own research.




> Lynas Corporation Limited (“Lynas”) (ASX code: LYC) today announced that it has issued a letter of award to Abesque Engineering Ltd (“Abesque”) for a lump sum contract to complete engineering design and construction of the Mount Weld Concentration Plant.
> The lump sum contract will replace the existing separate engineering and construction works contracts with Abesque for the Mount Weld Concentration Plant. The existing contracts were based on schedules of rates, and so the move to a lump sum contract should reduce the risk of variations from budgeted costs.
> The lump sum fixed price of the new contract will be A$36,232,733 (excluding GST). The figure of A$36,232,733 is within the Lynas budget and it represents the bulk of the Mount Weld Concentration Plant capital costs amount of approximately A$45.6 million referred to in the March 2010 Lynas Investor Presentation. The majority of the remaining amount is also committed under existing contracts.
> The key target dates for the Mount Weld Concentration Plant are as follows:
> (a)
> Mobilization to site – April 2010;
> (b)
> First Ore Feed – December 2010.


----------



## Miner

I hope Lynas holders and prospective holders will be happy with the report attached.
The EPCM cost has now calculated slightly higher. It should not be of concern however due to the fact the level of accuracy is much better now and original estimate might have taken lot of assumptions and factoring as typical to an estimate before engaging UGL as the EPCM contractor.

The gold lining is the company has the fund and no debt.

Good luck to you all

PS : I hold


----------



## vincent191

High time they get a bloody move on. The project had been on hold for nearly two years. I reckon once they become a producer the market will re-rate LYC. I can't wait forever, this stock had been underperforming lately. Hurry up guys before the next GFC comes along.


----------



## TheAbyss

Bit of movement in Lynas again lately (Up more than 30% since 6th June). 

Press report say it is due to broker coverage commencing however didnt mention which one. Anyone know who is covering them?

Best of the rare earth companies on our exchange.

Press article at the below link is interesting.

http://au.news.yahoo.com/thewest/bu...le-for-rare-earth-deposits-begins-to-heat-up/


----------



## Ding

Lynas going well in the last couple of weeks. Anybody know why the recient upsurge of the share price? I wish i had bought more of them when they were down under 50c.


----------



## pixel

Ding said:


> Lynas going well in the last couple of weeks. Anybody know why the recient upsurge of the share price? I wish i had bought more of them when they were down under 50c.




Try this article for an explanation:
Chinese Rare Earths Export Quota Significantly Reduced
Basing my trades and investments mainly on Technical Analysis, I didn't buy too many sub-50c either, although I traded a few small positions in June. But when the break level outside the falling channel (draw a trendline across the tops in October 2009 and January 2010) was tested again on July 1st, that changed 53c from resistance to support. That has been my signal to start accumulating a holding in my Superfund.


----------



## nioka

My stock of the day for discussion. I'll start by saying that there has been a steady increase in the basket price for rareearths as it affects Lynas. The margin over projected costs continues to increase daily and to a certain degree that fact is reflected in the SP. Remember that construction is proceeding as planned as far as we know and the day when sales will be made is not that far off. Lynas is well ahead of any competition. The attached article is interesting and worth taking into consideration.

"Are Rare Earth Price Increases Inevitable?

by stuart on July 20, 2010

It would seem everyone is taking an interest in rare earth metals these days. Not so long ago a casual observer could have been forgiven for thinking they were called rare earths because it was rare for anyone to take the slightest interest in them. Now there are conferences and blog sites and lobby groups all either warning of imminent shortages or crying foul at Chinese trade practices limiting supplies. It is true to say demand has risen dramatically over the last decade as new rare earth dependent technologies have become commonplace. At the same time, supplies have been limited by the Chinese authorities worried as reserves have become gradually depleted and anxious that rare earth metals produced in China should go to develop high technology industries within China rather than overseas.

Now banks and investors outside of the industries immediately involved are becoming interested in the sector as a recent Reuters article reports. Rob Edwards, managing director responsible for steel, metals and mining research at the Russian Renaissance Capital bank, told Reuters in an interview. It reminds me of a small version of the platinum group metals (PGMs) industry, where PGMs were a pretty mundane metal but then the world pushed very heavily for widespread use of catalytic converters. The banks interest is plain to see therefore, they are seeing price rises on the way.

The reason western world production of rare earth metals dwindled and the Chinese came to dominate the market was because western producers could not compete with the low prices widespread availability of Chinese material created. The Chinese cost of production was way below western mines and their plentiful supply left no place for western mines. Investors interest today is therefore a realization that if demand is increasing by 15-20% per year as Reuters suggests and supply is constrained by the Chinese desire to husband their limited resources, western suppliers will only become viable with higher prices. Projects that look marginal today therefore hold the potential to be very profitable a few years down the line, as prices have to increase. Strangely consumers are not voicing widespread concern about this; their principal issue has been one of security of supply rather than price. Maybe because for most applications the rare earth metal represents a small (although admittedly irreplaceable) portion of the overall cost. But surely if supply is being constrained and demand is continuing to rise there is only one direction prices will go, indeed has to go if funding is going to be raised to bring these projects on stream. Unfortunately this combination of constrained supply, rising demand and relative indifference to price rises will inevitably result in price rises as consumers out bid each other for supplies. A Rare Earths ETF anyone?

Stuart Burns


Source: http://agmetalminer.com/2010/07/20/are-rare-earth-price-increases-inevitable/"

Lynas was let down with funding at the start of the GFC and had to withstand a majority takeover by Chinese government interests. Wayne Swan did stand firm and refused the bid proceeding. Lynas then raised all the funds needed to proceed to production from shareholders. This did dilute the stock but that will be to the advantage of shareholders in the long run. Especially for those holders that subscribed and maintained the faith.

DYOR.


----------



## tonudiki

nioka

 Thank you for the article by Stuart Burns. 

 I'm pretty new to REO and only recently bought into Lynas in the mid-fifties cps because I liked the Lynas profile and it looked an excellent long term investment.  It looks even better now that the Chinese are imposing ever stricter export quotas!

 Re pricing of the Lynas "basket" of REO's, I note on their website a current value of $18.44/kg. compared to a value of $13.13/kg at Q1 2010.  This latter figure ties in reasonably closely to the Patersons report on Lynas of the 8th. March, which used an average of $13-77/kg. to calculate their 12 months target for Lynas of $1-00 per share. 

 Patersons also estimated for the "sensitivities" of their target, that a 10% rise in the REO basket price would increase their target for Lynas by 19 cps. So, presumably, with the Lynas basket at $18.44/kg, the Patersons target would now be ~$1.64 per share?

 (n.b.  As far as I can tell, the FX rates between the A$ and US$ are pretty similar now to those at the time of the report , so no need to take FX sensitivities into the revised target.)

  Even after the recent movements upwards in the Lynas share price, it looks as if the current REO prices do provide headroom for the SP to increase further.......


----------



## nioka

Interesting article from the web. This news should be worth a cent or two to Lynas. The rare earth news keeps getting better and better for Lynas.


2010-07-22 21:55:51 CRIENGLISH.com Web Editor: Jiang Aitao 

The Chinese government is busy preparing for the official issuance of a standard on industrial pollutant discharge of the country's rare earth industry, which is expected to speed up merging and restructuring among enterprises in the sector, the Economic Information Daily reports.

The Ministry of Environmental Protection and the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology are working on the new standard's promulgation in the near future, the newspaper reported Thursday, quoting authoritative sources.

If implemented strictly, the new industry standard will help to a great extent address overcapacity and deregulated exploitation that have caused the country's rare earth export prices to drop even as the international demand is rising, the paper says.

Annual demand for the mineral resource jumped from 40,000 tons to 120,000 tons in the past decade, while the country's average selling price of the commodity is currently only around one sixth of its 1990 level, the report says.

The new standard especially targets rare earth smelting and separation enterprises, with criteria covering discharge of waster water, residue, gas, as well as energy conservation.

About one third of the country's small scale rare earth enterprises will be forced out of the sector under the new standard's stringent environment requirements, according to preliminary estimates by industry insiders quoted in the report.

That's not to mention the market access standards for rare earth Industry drafted by the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology, which will further drive the industry to consolidate.

The country now has more than 1,000 enterprises engaged in the sector, spreading out in a dozen provinces or municipalities, with the Inner Mongolia Autonomous Region boasting 460 enterprises alone. However, only about ten of the enterprises run annual capacity from 2,000 tons to 5,000 tons, and only three of them running above 5,000 tons, the paper says.

The ensuing industry consolidation will inevitably drive down the country's rare earth output in the initial stage, besides adding operation costs to enterprises, which will in turn help to rectify the low export price, the paper said, citing Zhang Wen'an, with the Chinese Society of Rare Earths.

Source: http://english.cri.cn/6909/2010/07/22/189s584501.htm


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## BraceFace

nioka said:


> Interesting article from the web. This news should be worth a cent or two to Lynas. The rare earth news keeps getting better and better for Lynas.




Ditto Alkane(ALK). A recent spike in their SP seems to confirm this.
See my posts over on that thread.


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## nioka

China Rare Earth Summit,Beiling 2nd AUG 2010


The forum will focus on the impact of China rare earth industry policy on rare earth related industry, overview of the world rare earth resources, the relation between new energy industry and the rare earth industry, the status and the trends of rare earth new materials, the influence of rare earth industry on the environment, etc. Leaders from the relevant government, entrepreneurs of rare earth production, application, trading, and information, well-known experts and scholars will be invited to give wonderful speeches in the summit.


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## vincent191

LYC should commence production around this time next year - 3rd quarter 2011. This is only phase 1. 

To reach full production (phase 2) they will need further funding. If all goes to plan and phase 1 is successful funding for phase 2 should not be a problem.

Funding for phase 1 was a terrible experience and at one stage looked like it was not going to happen. I think the sp will not fully reflect the potential of LYC until production starts and most of the unknowns become reality. I can wait another 12 months it is not that long.


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## nioka

From the Lynas released company information,  

"Company Strategy 
LYC have a strategy of creating a reliable, fully integrated source of supply from mine through to the customer, and aim to become the benchmark for security of supply and environmental standards in the global Rare Earths industry. LYC focus upon implementation of its Rare Earths Direct (RED) concept providing an integrated Rare Earths (RE) business based around its Mt Weld deposit in WA. The Company places high importance on marketing its RED brand as a sign of guaranteed quality. LYC aim at becoming a significant rare earths producer, able to offer customers long term fixed or framed supply contracts. The first part of the RED concept envisages mining and concentration of Mt Weld RE ore and cracking of concentrate to produce mixed RE products. The second part of the concept is the separation of the mixed REs to produce individual Rare Earths Oxides (REO) and value added products in Malaysia. Initial production is expected at a rate of 10,500t REO. The result of this enables LYC to target 3 main applications; improving energy efficiency through lower consumption, environmental protection through emission control and developing smaller and more powerful forms of digital technology." 

The SP continues the upward trend. There is good volume changing hands. It looks as though the problems of the past are now in the past. It has been a long journey and that journey still has a way to go yet but I am happy with the progress so far.


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## nioka

Lynas has set another milestone. It has closed in the 80s for the first time in two years. This is despite all the financial problems caused by the GFC and considerable dilution of the shares. Those that have held on and took advantage of the SPP are now being rewarded with, in my opinion plenty more rewards ahead.


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## tonudiki

tonudiki said:


> nioka
> 
> Thank you for the article by Stuart Burns.
> 
> I'm pretty new to REO and only recently bought into Lynas in the mid-fifties cps because I liked the Lynas profile and it looked an excellent long term investment.  It looks even better now that the Chinese are imposing ever stricter export quotas!
> 
> Re pricing of the Lynas "basket" of REO's, I note on their website a current value of $18.44/kg. compared to a value of $13.13/kg at Q1 2010.  This latter figure ties in reasonably closely to the Patersons report on Lynas of the 8th. March, which used an average of $13-77/kg. to calculate their 12 months target for Lynas of $1-00 per share.
> 
> Patersons also estimated for the "sensitivities" of their target, that a 10% rise in the REO basket price would increase their target for Lynas by 19 cps. So, presumably, with the Lynas basket at $18.44/kg, the Patersons target would now be ~$1.64 per share?
> 
> (n.b.  As far as I can tell, the FX rates between the A$ and US$ are pretty similar now to those at the time of the report , so no need to take FX sensitivities into the revised target.)
> 
> Even after the recent movements upwards in the Lynas share price, it looks as if the current REO prices do provide headroom for the SP to increase further.......




Just checked the latest "basket" price on the Lynas site and it's now at $24-11/kg. Using the base basket price of $13-77 per the Patersons report and their suggested 19cps uplift for every 10% above their base, I now calculate that Patersons target would be around $2-42 per share!!


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## nioka

A Report From The Rare Earths Conference In Beijing
by Jack Lifton on August 4, 2010 

I am in Beijing, where I am attending and have spoken at the 2010 China Rare Earth Summit, part of the 6th International Conference on Rare Earth Development and Application, run by the Chinese Society of Rare Earths. I was honored to be one of only three American guest speakers. The other two were Americas most well known academic experts on rare earths, Professor Karl Gschneidner of the Ames Laboratory at Iowa State University and Professor William J. Evans of the University of California Irvine.

The conference has 300 attendees who are a comprehensive group, representing the academic, business, and governmental sectors of the Chinese rare earth research (academic and business), development, mining, refining, and end use manufacturing industries.

I was asked to speak about The American Perspective of the Rare Earth Supply Issue. My presentation and commentary will be posted shortly here on the Technology Metals Research web site for review.

Although most of the nearly 100 speakers in the 6 technical tracks, and most of the 222 papers listed on the program were highly technical, interspersed among them were some that were purely descriptive of mines, processes, and important sectors dependent on the rare earth metals such as permanent magnets, batteries, phosphors, wind energy generation, and other clean-tech/green-tech applications.

My colleagues Dudley Kingsnorth of IMCOA and Judith Chegwidden of Roskill Information Services, were also both invited guest speakers and Ms. Chegwidden was the moderator of the introductory session at which I spoke. Their respective presentations might be available online in the near future.

I am here in China to find out what the Chinese rare earth industry is doing and where it is going. I have a scientific background, and was once a researcher myself. I also worked with rare earths in product development for phosphors and batteries, so I was interested in and able to understand most, if not all, of many of the technical papers I heard. THe biggest surprises though, came from the survey papers on clean-tech/green-tech applications of the rare earths.

It is obvious from the vantage of the rare earths sector in China, that China is simply racing ahead of the rest of the world in volume production, as well as development of state-of-the-art clean tech and green tech products.

For example, it was pointed out that China built and installed 13 gigawatts of wind turbine electricity generating capacity last year, using rare earth permanent magnets for efficiency and low maintenance. The astounding prediction was made that by 2020, China will install 330 gigawatts more wind power capacity, with each 1.5 megawatt generator require one metric ton of neodymium-iron-boron magnet alloys, which, if they contains 34 weight % neodymium, would mean that the Chinese wind power industry would need a further 70,000 t of neodymium, approximately 3 1/2 times the 2008 production of that metal all as new added material between now and 2018-19.

I plan to write much more on this topic during the next few weeks, but I believe that the trend is clear. China will be the driver for, and the home of, the most demand in the world for the rare earth metals from now on.

There wasnt much talk about Molycorp in China, other than to hope that if it gets into production, Chinese customers will have an opportunity to buy its products. The only non-Chinese rare earth mining venture present was Great Western Minerals Group. Its chairman gave a talk on his mine to market strategy, and he told me he was there both because he was invited, and in order to continue negotiations for a strategic alliance with a Chinese refiner, on an African project the goal of which is to supply Great Westerns UK alloy plant, Less Common Metals, with feedstock metals for its operations from GWs South African venture at Steenkampskraal.

Japanese companies and academics were well represented and there were even French and Russian miners and refiners. I was disappointed that there were so few Americans, and as for the American media I saw only public radios Marketplace (who interviewed me) and the New York Times Asia correspondent.

If the rare earth supply issue is so important to Americas security, why then do so few Americans and almost no American media come to the worlds premier rare earth informational event? It is most likely because China is the center of the world rare earth industry, in all of its aspects.

The Chinese and Japanese magnet industries both need heavy rare earths. They may even need light, imported, non-Chinese, rare earths sometime before 2015, but I think it is clear that after 2015 they will both need heavy rare earths from outside of China. Japan may actually need both types of rare earths from the outside by 2015, if Chinese demand should exceed or meet its domestic supply capability by then, which is probable, so that China no longer is willing to export rare earths.

If all roads lead to Rome then certainly the home of all metals is now China.


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## Huitzii

Lynas made 39.45% profit last month and doesn't look like slowing down ATM.
As long as the trend stays as a trend im happy to hold, Lynas is in a very sound global position at this point in time with the Chinese restricting exports.

(From the Lynas website)
 "Engineering and construction of the Lynas Advanced Materials Plant (LAMP) in Malaysia remains on time and within budget as at 30 June 2010; with the first feed to kiln at the LAMP on target for the third quarter of 2011."

Here is my analysis chart that shows the current trend, until the trend bends im in and topping up regularly.

Please don't act on any of my posts or on my chart analysis as it is only my opinion and may vary from person to person.
DYOR


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## vincent191

Hehehehe....breakout at long last. Good volumne and all realistic sellers have been taken out promptly. All RE market indications and announcements are positive. Anyone care to speculate what the sp will reach by end of this year?

My own speculation based on a suggestion in the telephone conference hosted by LYC, the sp will go higher by end of the year either by a share reduction scheme or by market forces to attract the big time investors like Superfunds. I hope both.

The suggestion was to follow the REITs and consolidate the share register which currently have around 1.4 billion shares on issue.  A consolidation will get the sp up to get around the big funds preference to only invest in shares with a value >$1. LYC's comment was he will think about it and will do that if necessary. 

Maybe this is not a bad suggestion.


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## nioka

vincent191 said:


> Hehehehe....breakout at long last. Good volumne and all realistic sellers have been taken out promptly. All RE market indications and announcements are positive. Anyone care to speculate what the sp will reach by end of this year?.




I see little doubt that the SP will make a gradual climb as we get nearer to production and will peak as announcements are made that the plant is in production and operating successfully. I suggest that there may be some ups and downs on a daily or weekly basis depending on general news, the value of rare earths according to the LYC basket price and the worly supply and demand situation. Considering the timing of the program I think that LYC is priced according to value at this stage, good value with room for some increase but not real cheap.


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## vincent191

Those lucky devils who picked it up at .075 cents in 2008 must be laughing all the way to the bank. Anyway I think I will hold this until they go into production. The only worry I have is there is a LOT of shares on issue.


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## nioka

vincent191 said:


> Those lucky devils who picked it up at .075 cents in 2008 must be laughing all the way to the bank. Anyway I think I will hold this until they go into production. The only worry I have is there is a LOT of shares on issue.




Sometimes you make your own luck. Those that kept the faith bought in lower than 10c around Jan and Feb 2009. I'd call it judgement rather than luck. I think the low was around 7.5c. I missed that but did buy a few at 10c. That is why there are a lot of shares on issue. There had to be that sort of dilution to get the funds needed. At least Lynas survived and is thriving.


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## bandicoot76

aaaggghhhh! dont remind me! in late 2008 i had $50,000... i decided the whole market was way undervalued so i made the decision to invest in stocks i believed had a huge growth potential and narrowed my stocks of choice down to 3... LYC, NFK & BBI.... guess which one i put my hard earned into!!! if it had been either of the first 2 i wouldve been laughing now... but no... muggins here sunk the whole 50g into BBI :crap:


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## hawks2380

Looking at rare earth prices from china late this week, the basket price for Lynas will be over $30 on Monday morning. Another massive weekly rise!


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## vincent191

bandicoot....sympathies muggins, hindsight is always a great thing. Don't worry you are not alone, I have also jumped the wrong way before, straight into the on coming path of a bloody big truck!!!

I didn't not get LYC at 7.5 cents but I do envy those who did. Well, I did not have the conviction or the faith to take the risk at that moment in time. All I can say is good luck to those who did.

Anyway enough sour grapes on my part, I am still very happy with LYC and it looks like there is a bit more headroom for it to go up. My question is, should I take profit now??


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## vincent191

What should I do now? Sell or hold. Surely it cannot defy gravity forever. What are you guys doing??


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## nioka

vincent191 said:


> What should I do now? Sell or hold. Surely it cannot defy gravity forever. What are you guys doing??




Who suggests that it is defying gravity. I don't. Investors that make money don't put it down to luck. They put it down to "the more I research my stocks, the luckier I get".

With any investment there is risk so YOU have to balance any risk there is for YOU against the possible gain. I am certainly not selling, at least until the production starts and only then if the fundamentals say sell. Plenty of others are happy to take the profit now.


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## nioka

nioka said:


> Who suggests that it is defying gravity. I don't. Investors that make money don't put it down to luck. They put it down to "the more I research my stocks, the luckier I get".
> 
> With any investment there is risk so YOU have to balance any risk there is for YOU against the possible gain. I am certainly not selling, at least until the production starts and only then if the fundamentals say sell. Plenty of others are happy to take the profit now.




Macquarie suggested a 10% improvement in their NPV of 91c for every 5% above the RE price of $16. Going by the current basket price for LYC that would equate to an SP of around $2.50. ??????????????


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## vincent191

nioka said:


> Macquarie suggested a 10% improvement in their NPV of 91c for every 5% above the RE price of $16. Going by the current basket price for LYC that would equate to an SP of around $2.50. ??????????????




Wow!!!  I sure hope Macquarie has got it right. Even half right will do me nicely - thank you very much.


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## Huitzii

vincent191 said:


> What should I do now? Sell or hold. Surely it cannot defy gravity forever. What are you guys doing??




Hi vincent191, If you feel that you should sell to suit your own personal needs then that is what you should do my friend.
Personally I do hold this one and I am a short term holder in most of my portfolio but ATM i wouldn't sell this one if hell froze over.
10, 68 and 90 day averages are all heading in a northerly direction with good volume, buyers to sellers at a 4:1 ratio with a positive MACD.
All is staying inside the given trend lines (except for today breaking the upper limit).
Christ what is not good here?
All fundamentals are well on track with a positive looking analysis chart.
Up Up Up for LYC
DYOR


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## vincent191

Huitzii, thanks for your comments. I agree with your comments and I will hang on for a while. I made a big mistake before with MMX when I did not take profit when it hit $3, it subsequently went down to $1.60. That is the reason I am seeking comfort on this forum whether to jump now and buy it back latter when the euphoria dies down.  Cheers.


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## nioka

vincent191 said:


> . That is the reason I am seeking comfort on this forum whether to jump now and buy it back latter when the euphoria dies down.  Cheers.




Sometimes "comfort" obtained from forums such as these can turn to pain. Remember that most that post on any stock are the believers in the stock. So do plenty of your own research and in the end you will have only yourself to blame.


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## Huitzii

nioka said:


> Sometimes "comfort" obtained from forums such as these can turn to pain. Remember that most that post on any stock are the believers in the stock. So do plenty of your own research and in the end you will have only yourself to blame.




I cant agree more with your comments.
"I will follow a trend until it shows a bend"
It works for me.
I bailed out of RED this morning for that very reason and I will buy back in when it looks more positive and a good entry point presents its self ,my 
DYOR


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## maungatapu

BEIJING Aug 10 (Reuters) - China's leading rare earth miners may effectively fix global prices for the group of metals that are widely used in a number of electronic devices, digital displays and military applications, an official newspaper reported on Tuesday.

Baotou Steel Rare Earth High-Tech Co and Jiangxi Copper Corp are set to launch a unified pricing mechanism on light rare earth materials nationwide, a move that is expected to give China a bigger say in international markets over the valuable resources, the China Daily said.

The alliance between Baotou Steel Rare Earth and Jiangxi Copper means they will virtually control the whole light rare earth market, the report said, citing analysts.

China dominates production with 95 percent of global supply of the group of metals.

Rare earths are composed of 17 elements and are used in many high-tech applications ranging from wind turbines and hybrid cars to missile-guidance systems and mobile phones. Light rare earth materials have a much larger reserve and are easy to process.

Beijing has indicated that it wants large companies to spearhead the consolidation of the country's rare earths sector to prevent the resource from being undervalued, the report said.

With China's moves to reduce export quotas, push for consolidation and crack down on illegal mining, prices of some major rare earth oxides such as neodymium have rallied to 219,000 yuan ($32,360) a tonne this month, up 60 percent from the end of last year.

"Enhancing the concentration of the rare earth sector will benefit the Chinese side and give it a bigger say in the global markets," Yu Zongsen, former secretary-general of the Chinese Society of Rare Earths, was quoted as saying by the newspaper. ($1=6.767 Yuan)

(Reporting by Jim Bai and Emma Graham-Harrison; Editing by Ken Wills) Reuters


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## vincent191

Huitzii.....After reading the 50 page JP Morgan report. it is all good. The next 12 months will be very interesting, if JP Morgan believes in it's own research in this stock they should start accumulating and this is good (I think they had already started). According to the very comprehensive report LYC is very promising indeed.


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## Ding

Well I am out. Got out 60% up. See what happens in the coming months, if they go down again I will buy back in. Feel a little naked without LYC in my basket.


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## enigmatic

It is interesting to see what one year difference can make between two companies, with LYC at $1,465 Million and ARU being a producer one year later at $199 Million.. ARU also has a much higher $/kg to LYC.. 

I'm always interested in LYC as it is closer to producing.. however always wonder if its already had its run and its time for the next Rare earth play to have a run..


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## nioka

enigmatic said:


> It is interesting to see what one year difference can make between two companies, with LYC at $1,465 Million and ARU being a producer one year later at $199 Million.. ARU also has a much higher $/kg to LYC..
> 
> I'm always interested in LYC as it is closer to producing.. however always wonder if its already had its run and its time for the next Rare earth play to have a run..




What leads you to believe that ARU is only one year behind Lynas. How much dilution will occur in funding ARU to production?. What are its production plans?. Will the Chinese part ownership place restrictions in its ability to have a refining plant outside China?. Has it established the type of refining process necessary with its type of raw material?.

There is a lot of water to flow under the bridge before it gets as far down the track as Lynas.

Not that I doubt the value of ARU but I dont see it as better value than LYC at this point in time.


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## vincent191

I don't think ARU has the same amount of resources as LYC. Further, LYC's resources are of a much higher grade and different composition of RE elements.

Nioka is right, where did you get your 1 year lag from? And how is ARU going to fund their production plans?

Don't get me wrong, I am not trying to downramp ARU or upramp LYC. Just asking the questions.


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## Huitzii

Today we saw a fair drop for LYC by 6.21% on high volume on a bad day for most companies and is still inside the (grey trendlines) and I doubled my holdings at .83 cents as the chart shows.
Im a little confused with the late trade after market close(I think correct me if im wrong).
Why would anyone put such large orders @.5.5 cents above market?,its not like its a small amount like $5000 its more like $274088.04
Anyone with any logic can you please explain it to me. 
DYOR


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## noie

Huitzii said:


> Today we saw a fair drop for LYC by 6.21% on high volume on a bad day for most companies and is still inside the (grey trendlines) and I doubled my holdings at .83 cents as the chart shows.
> Im a little confused with the late trade after market close(I think correct me if im wrong).
> Why would anyone put such large orders @.5.5 cents above market?,its not like its a small amount like $5000 its more like $274088.04
> Anyone with any logic can you please explain it to me.
> DYOR




May i ask what is that app that breaks down the depth and sector like that?

Not answering your question sorry..(well not very well)
after 1700 is the *Adjust *period, and trading cant take place here

from the ASX website
Brokers wishing to trade contact each other by telephone. ASX Market Rules ensure that trading takes place in an orderly fashion.
Trading during the Adjust phase is referred to as overnight trading.

Maybe its a type of OTC trade or broker cross?  it is a long way off the close price tho


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## Huitzii

I use Macquarie Edge if you do enough trades it will also give their individual company assesments,it works for me ,but its not the cheapest for trade @ $18.95 per trade but it does give me the security of a chess sponsored account though.


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## maungatapu

Huitzii
Actually 967,786 shares were traded between 4-18 and 4-59 @ 88.5 They had the letters SXXT after them which I think stand for "special sale portfolio" (SX) and 
"crossed trades" (XT)  One investor offloads to another investor using the same broker. Would suspect a fund wants to do trades in secret then report to the market.


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## Huitzii

From ASX website:
Notes:
*For Crossed Trade reports, 'XT' will be appended to the ITS condition codes. For example, the condition code for Portfolio Special Crossing is SXXT, whilst the condition code for a crossed Late Trade is LTXT.

Does this mean that there will be an substantial holder announcement for almost 1 million traded as "Portfolio Special Crossing"?
Not that its relevant to me, im more curious than anything.


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## nioka

Huitzii said:


> From ASX website:
> Notes:
> *For Crossed Trade reports, 'XT' will be appended to the ITS condition codes. For example, the condition code for Portfolio Special Crossing is SXXT, whilst the condition code for a crossed Late Trade is LTXT.
> 
> Does this mean that there will be an substantial holder announcement for almost 1 million traded as "Portfolio Special Crossing"?
> Not that its relevant to me, im more curious than anything.




A portfolio special crossing is usually a transfer from one account to another account without an actual change of real ownership; eg from a trading account to a super fund. These have to be done at a market price for taxation reasons.


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## Huitzii

nioka said:


> A portfolio special crossing is usually a transfer from one account to another account without an actual change of real ownership; eg from a trading account to a super fund. These have to be done at a market price for taxation reasons.




Hi Nioka if that is the case (and im not disputing what you are saying) why was the trade done @ 5.5 cents above market.....im confused
Do you think it could have been automated system and put into several parcels and a wrong buy/sell price entered?


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## vincent191

Huitzii, on my opinion for portfolio special crossing the shares can change hands at any old price because the fundamental ownership did not change, it is like you selling the shares to yourself, so what does it matter?

Of course this is my own simple way of thinking there is of course a tax issue to be considered. 

Today I am looking at accumulating a bit more LYC, the market is weak this weak but the fundamentals of LYC had not changed. Agree??


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## Huitzii

vincent191 said:


> Huitzii, on my opinion for portfolio special crossing the shares can change hands at any old price because the fundamental ownership did not change, it is like you selling the shares to yourself, so what does it matter?
> 
> Of course this is my own simple way of thinking there is of course a tax issue to be considered.
> 
> Today I am looking at accumulating a bit more LYC, the market is weak this weak but the fundamentals of LYC had not changed. Agree??




The issue with that trade is it can change the market without the 1m shares changing hands only changing accounts held by the same person, is that legal?

yeah I see yesterdays drop as an opportunity so I  doubled my holding yesterday at .83


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## nioka

Huitzii said:


> Hi Nioka if that is the case (and im not disputing what you are saying) why was the trade done @ 5.5 cents above market.....im confused
> Do you think it could have been automated system and put into several parcels and a wrong buy/sell price entered?




Usually there are taxation reasons behind these transfers. I have done this sort of transfer myself in the past by transfering shares to family members. These transfers are often scrutinised by the tax office for transfers at unreasonable value so they may be a few cents either way of the latest market price but they will be within cooee of recent values. It is best to just ignore them. I doubt they are made to set or influence a market price.


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## nioka

BEIJING(Metal-Pages)11-Aug-10. Five provinces in southern China including Guangdong, Guangxi, Fujian, Jiangxi and Hunan yesterday officially started to jointly supervise rare earth mining in local areas, industry sources reported. The joint initiative is aimed at regulating rare earth exploitation and the operation of the domestic market, and at encouraging a healthier industry.

The five provinces are the leading suppliers for ion-absorbion rare earth concentrates in China, with their reserve and output accounting for about 90% of the China's total rare earth reserves and output of concentrates.

Rare earth resources in southern China have been seriously wasted in recent years due to primitive mining technology, and the local environment has also suffered severe damage. 

Several government departments have taken many measures over the past years to crack down on illegal mining and regulate the mining system. However, illegal mining of rare earth resources has proliferated in southern China, due to the lure of high profits. This has prompted 15 cities within the five provinces to take joint action to supervise exploitation of rare earth resources in thier respective areas.

The 15 city authorities signed an agreement on the joint supervision on Aug 10. According to the agreement, they will negotiate on rare earth mining in the future to improve oprations and to ensure that resources are mined strictly in line with extraction quotas allocated by the relevant state departments. They will also try to set up a unified market for rare earth concentrates.

The cities will team up with each other to crack down on illegal mining and gang up in the fight against illegal mining concentrates coming into the market. The agreement also says that the 15 cities will set up a union for rare earth mining enterprises in the future and will improve cooperation on technology.

http://www.metal-pages.com/news/story/48515/


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## vincent191

LYC gives a running report on the basket price of RE on it's website. Many look at the basket price and assume LYC's sp should react accordingly.

But is this a realistic expectation? The basket contains (lets say 10) elements. Any increase in the basket price may not be due to an even increase in all 10 elements. Some would have gone up more than others and some might have even fallen.

We need to know what is in LYC's basket. If LYC's basket contains more of the elements that are in short supply then LYC's sp should outperform the increase in the overall basket price. The reverse is true.

Has anyone done any research in LYC's basket?  Does LYC's basket contain a lot of those elements that are in short supply?

Not all RE elements are created equal, some are more valuable than others. I need to go research what is in LYC's basket.


----------



## nioka

vincent191 said:


> LYC gives a running report on the basket price of RE on it's website. Many look at the basket price and assume LYC's sp should react accordingly.
> 
> But is this a realistic expectation? The basket contains (lets say 10) elements. Any increase in the basket price may not be due to an even increase in all 10 elements. Some would have gone up more than others and some might have even fallen.
> 
> We need to know what is in LYC's basket. If LYC's basket contains more of the elements that are in short supply then LYC's sp should outperform the increase in the overall basket price. The reverse is true.
> 
> Has anyone done any research in LYC's basket?  Does LYC's basket contain a lot of those elements that are in short supply?
> 
> Not all RE elements are created equal, some are more valuable than others. I need to go research what is in LYC's basket.




As far as I know the basket price takes into account the amount of each of the elements is available for LYC to extract, hence the name "basket" price. It is what is included in LYC's basket.Somewhere in the past there has been a list of the elements that LYC expects to produce. With a quick search I cant find it but if I do I will publish it again.


----------



## vincent191

nioka, yeah I will have a look during the weekend as well to see whether the basket price posted on LYC's site is a generic basket put out by some mining research group or it is specific to LYC's basket. You could be right, I am not sure.


----------



## derty

Here is a quick screen grab of the Lynas basket with the REE breakdown by percentage (prices are $US/kg):


----------



## Huitzii

What a well timed 48 hours ive had, it went like this.
When AUT held yesterday and LYC had a fall to .83 cents, I sold all my AUT for .96 cents and doubled my LYC at .83 cents.
before open today I put an order for a sell of LYC for .89 cents for the same amount of dollars that it cost me to double up and leaving profits in LYC and rebought AUT today at the same price that it was sold at the day before being .96 cents and rode AUT to its high of $1.06.
To top it off I hold EKA aswell and saw that rise to .32 cents and I did take full advantage of the 6 for 1 @ .17 cents SPP over a week ago which will show up next wednesday in my account.
The ride was  great today


----------



## vincent191

Huitzii said:


> What a well timed 48 hours ive had, it went like this.
> When AUT held yesterday and LYC had a fall to .83 cents, I sold all my AUT for .96 cents and doubled my LYC at .83 cents.
> before open today I put an order for a sell of LYC for .89 cents for the same amount of dollars that it cost me to double up and leaving profits in LYC and rebought AUT today at the same price that it was sold at the day before being .96 cents and rode AUT to its high of $1.06.
> To top it off I hold EKA aswell and saw that rise to .32 cents and I did take full advantage of the 6 for 1 @ .17 cents SPP over a week ago which will show up next wednesday in my account.
> The ride was  great today





Well done.  I thought about selling LYC at .91 and buy back should it drop but decided against it. Missed making a few dollars but no regrets LYC pushing 90 cents again. I will get a second chance next week. What to do??


----------



## vincent191

derty, great stuff!!! saved me hours of work. Now to understand what it all means. Am I correct to say the top 3 elements went up the most and LYC's basket has a lot of those (90.7%)?  Gee if I read this correctly what is there not to like.


----------



## nioka

Another thing to take into account is the fact that the elements are used in small quantities so the extra costs to users are not a big portion of their production costs which makes little difference to their ability to pay the extra price. The extra value makes a huge difference to Lynas.


----------



## derty

Here is a couple of graphs. One that shows the change in REE Oxide values as compared to 2007 and another that shows the total basket value for each period and the relative value of the each of the REE within the basket. 

Other than the gaudy colours what is apparent is that while Lanthanum, Cerium and Samarium have undergone huge increases in value it is the Lanthanum, Cerium and Neodymium within the ore that carry the value of the mine with the remainder comprising a relatively constant value.


----------



## vincent191

Today's paper reports JP Morgan has reviewed LYC target price from 83 cents to $1.30. Wow....LYC is better than sex.


----------



## Huitzii

0051 GMT [Dow Jones] STOCK CALL: Lynas Corp. (LYC.AU) price target upgraded 43% by JPMorgan analysts, to A$1.30 from A$0.91; keeps stock at Overweight. Move reflects recent move-up in LYC's basket price for rare earths, plus expected price inflation of 2.5% to first production in 2011, with broker estimating US$24.81/kg; notes this 22% below current spot basket price of US$31.94/kg but "we prefer to maintain a relatively conservative stance should current high prices prove unsustainable". JP Morgan Asset Management U.K. holds around 4% of LYC stock, making it the second-biggest holder, although research comes from JP Morgan Securities (Australia) Ltd.; both parts of JPMorgan Chase & Co. LYC last up 4.8% or 4 cents at 87 Australian cents. JPM has held Overweight rating since initiating its call in June; BBY only other broker covering. (david.fickling@dowjones.com) 

Is anyone a member of BBY here, I would like to see thier reprts on LYC


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## vincent191

Who is BBY?  Interesting week ahead. I learn over the weekend that RE is not really that rare, some of the elements are more common than zinc!!!  The problem is that it is quite difficult to find "rich" deposits that are economical to mine and LYC has one of the richest deposits.


----------



## Huitzii

vincent191 said:


> Who is BBY?




BBY is an Australian focused stockbroking, corporate advisory and asset management firm. With offices in Sydney, Melbourne, UK and UAE along with a global presence in the USA and Asia, BBY is well positioned to service its clients’ local and global needs.

BBY's objective is to be a leading Australian owned securities firm, providing solutions to high growth, small, medium and large sized Australian Companies including their Australian and International investors.

Read more :
http://www.bby.com.au/

A members login is required to access their research on LYC, which im interested in reading


----------



## frankblack

Huitzii said:


> BBY is an Australian focused stockbroking, corporate advisory and asset management firm. With offices in Sydney, Melbourne, UK and UAE along with a global presence in the USA and Asia, BBY is well positioned to service its clients’ local and global needs.
> 
> BBY's objective is to be a leading Australian owned securities firm, providing solutions to high growth, small, medium and large sized Australian Companies including their Australian and International investors.
> 
> Read more :
> http://www.bby.com.au/
> 
> A members login is required to access their research on LYC, which im interested in reading




I guess you are not worried Morgan Stanley has 9.61% of Lynas.
They have been doing ALL the buying to date.
A. supporting the price at this level, and not more.
B. when they decide to off load, driving the price down.?

I am a big fan of the Lynas story, but can see my self and other smaller players being taken down by these bigger fish.

What do you think?


----------



## Huitzii

frankblack said:


> I guess you are not worried Morgan Stanley has 9.61% of Lynas.
> They have been doing ALL the buying to date.
> A. supporting the price at this level, and not more.
> B. when they decide to off load, driving the price down.?
> 
> I am a big fan of the Lynas story, but can see my self and other smaller players being taken down by these bigger fish.
> 
> What do you think?




What makes you think that Morgan Stanley will be offloading any time soon?
For me LYC is moving a bit slowly so I traded out today and into a better short term trade (hopefully more profitable) but if LYC shows a bit better gain soon I will jump back in.
Its just the way I trade and it works well for me....every week presents different opportunities if you look for them.
DYOR


----------



## vincent191

Huitzii...the market is a bit quiet lately for short term trading. I miss the volatile days from earlier this year, it was like bread from heaven. However lately I have given a lot of it back, LYC is my star performer now and I hope JP Morgan will push it to $1.30.


----------



## Huitzii

vincent191 said:


> Huitzii...the market is a bit quiet lately for short term trading. I miss the volatile days from earlier this year, it was like bread from heaven. However lately I have given a lot of it back, LYC is my star performer now and I hope JP Morgan will push it to $1.30.




I agree it is generally a bit slow atm ,in the last month Ive made quite a few trades, some being excellent,some good and some poor,but my way of trading has seen me in the green of about 10k with a 40k float.
In trading like this a lot of time is spent reviewing over 100 charts daily.
Soon I would think I would be back in but I need see a bit more movement to suit my style of trading....for now im watching very closely
DYOR


----------



## nioka

Huitzii said:


> I agree it is generally a bit slow atm ,in the last month Ive made quite a few trades, some being excellent,some good and some poor,but my way of trading has seen me in the green of about 10k with a 40k float.
> In trading like this a lot of time is spent reviewing over 100 charts daily.
> Soon I would think I would be back in but I need see a bit more movement to suit my style of trading....for now im watching very closely
> DYOR




$40,000 invested in LYC and staying there would have made $15,000 in the last month with the potential to make more in the next month so why trade it.


----------



## Huitzii

nioka said:


> $40,000 invested in LYC and staying there would have made $15,000 in the last month with the potential to make more in the next month so why trade it.




Im not confidant  having all of the proverbial eggs in that same basket noika, Im sure no-one here would recommend it aswell.
Better money in EKA which im still holding + 6 for 1 showing up tomorrow
AUT has been nice aswell, and still holding
plus a few more without giving away my whole portfolio


----------



## nioka

Huitzii said:


> Im not confidant  having all of the proverbial eggs in that same basket noika, Im sure no-one here would recommend it aswell.
> Better money in EKA which im still holding + 6 for 1 showing up tomorrow
> AUT has been nice aswell, and still holding
> plus a few more without giving away my whole portfolio




A quick calculation from my holdings in AUT, LYC and EKA show that $40,000 spread evenly over the three would now be worth $55,258. I'm suggesting that trading these can actually reduce profits when stocks like this are generally rising. To sell and try to rebuy often results in missing out on some of the gains. I much preferred to trade these when there was volatility and a falling trend.


----------



## Huitzii

nioka said:


> A quick calculation from my holdings in AUT, LYC and EKA show that $40,000 spread evenly over the three would now be worth $55,258. I'm suggesting that trading these can actually reduce profits when stocks like this are generally rising. To sell and try to rebuy often results in missing out on some of the gains. I much preferred to trade these when there was volatility and a falling trend.




I personally like to trade out before a falling trend, on most occasions but not always I will set a buy point and a sell point, And although sometimes I could have made more profit, I reduce the risk of loosing the money that was gained.
I dont take my profits, I use it to increase my capitol.
I do spent a lot of time trying to anticipate highs and lows with T/A charts to get my entry and exit points.
In saying this my wins outweigh my losses as I would be lying if I said that I won on every trade.
If you know anyone that wins on every trade can you please give me their phone number so I can find out how to do it


----------



## vincent191

Spreading your money around a few stocks reduces your risk (that's the theory) but it also reduce your chance of making it BIG.  I guess it is always the question of risk & reward.

I did not plonk enough on LYC yesterday but I did get a few at .89 so I cannot complain. LYC is the flavour of the month so I think I will give it a big whack and hope for the best. Well, no venture, no gain.


----------



## TheAbyss

frankblack said:


> I guess you are not worried Morgan Stanley has 9.61% of Lynas.
> They have been doing ALL the buying to date.
> A. supporting the price at this level, and not more.
> B. when they decide to off load, driving the price down.?
> 
> I am a big fan of the Lynas story, but can see my self and other smaller players being taken down by these bigger fish.
> 
> What do you think?





Given that the top 20 hold 60% of LYC the likelihood of any single holder reducing their holding having any great impact is greatly reduced which is also what is giving the SP some impetus in the moment in that there are not a lot of sellers around.

If MS want out the other 19 will accomodate i am sure.


----------



## vincent191

hehehe.....made 10 cents in 1 day. Thank you very much. Sold what I bought yesterday but still hanging on to my original portfolio.  LYC is better than sex.


----------



## Kremmen

Huitzii said:


> Im not confidant  having all of the proverbial eggs in that same basket noika, Im sure no-one here would recommend it aswell.
> Better money in EKA which im still holding + 6 for 1 showing up tomorrow
> AUT has been nice aswell, and still holding




Interesting that you've listed all 3 of my largest recently bought holdings. (fwiw, ADI was pushing LYC into 4th until until it was taken over.)

However, the other issue is time. Trading is a huge time-consumer, as you've said. You review 100 charts a day. And what about all the tedious record-keeping?! If someone can make even a vaguely similar profit by buying 4 stocks and only watching them and topping up (EKA 1:6, etc) occasionally, then I conclude that trading such stocks heavily is not a very efficient use of time.


----------



## Huitzii

Kremmen said:


> Interesting that you've listed all 3 of my largest recently bought holdings. (fwiw, ADI was pushing LYC into 4th until until it was taken over.)
> 
> However, the other issue is time. Trading is a huge time-consumer, as you've said. You review 100 charts a day. And what about all the tedious record-keeping?! If someone can make even a vaguely similar profit by buying 4 stocks and only watching them and topping up (EKA 1:6, etc) occasionally, then I conclude that trading such stocks heavily is not a very efficient use of time.




 My time in the evenings is all mine for chartkeeping, I do have a business that I only open on weekends when the stock market is closed...it suits my lifestyle just fine.
Well done in locking in your 10% Vincent, I didn't quite do so well but I did lock in 6.5% elsewhere so im happy.
the market is still open so I might get another opportunity for some more profits today yet.
DYOR


----------



## frankblack

TheAbyss said:


> Given that the top 20 hold 60% of LYC the likelihood of any single holder reducing their holding having any great impact is greatly reduced which is also what is giving the SP some impetus in the moment in that there are not a lot of sellers around.
> 
> If MS want out the other 19 will accomodate i am sure.




Thanks for your reply, Abyss
The top 20 you mentioned holding 60% of Lynas,  I clearly dont know what you mean.?

Had a look for major holders, any-one with more than 5%,
only, JP Morgan Chase & Co and its affiliates, The Capital Group Companies, Inc,
and Morgan Stanley (may even be JP morgan chase now) only they show up,
and they dont seem to have 60%.
Where can I find this major shareholder information?

Any help with my education would be appreciated, thanks.


----------



## enigmatic

Please forgive me I did not mean to implying that ARU is worth more then LYC.
just pointing out the difference in Market capital between the two Rare Earth Projects.

My appologies on the 1 year behind it appears that ARU are scheduled for production by 2013..

Very impressive actually seeing the explosion in Rare Earth prices for both companies bundles.. with LYC at $35US a kg on the 16th and with ARU hitting $43US a Kg today.. That is some serious profit for LYC and possible profit for ARU in the future.. 

I wonder if the price rises are just the start of the increase or overpriced will be interesting to find out..


----------



## vincent191

enigmatic said:


> I wonder if the price rises are just the start of the increase or overpriced will be interesting to find out..





According to the textbook if demand > supply prices will go up. All the articles I have read suggest that in the short to medium term (1 to 2 years) demand will outstrip supply so a price increase is expected or in the very least stay at current levels.


----------



## AngusSmart

LYC ARU & ALK are all doing quiet well dew to this increase in demand and the rise in prices.. this i find strange since none of these companies actually produce! but its still doing ok by be for some quick day trading.

looking forward to tomorrow.

LYC also comes up alot on the sky business show your money your call. quiet interesting to hear what the guests have to say about it. skys the limit i've herd a few times!


----------



## TheAbyss

frankblack said:


> Thanks for your reply, Abyss
> The top 20 you mentioned holding 60% of Lynas,  I clearly dont know what you mean.?
> 
> Had a look for major holders, any-one with more than 5%,
> only, JP Morgan Chase & Co and its affiliates, The Capital Group Companies, Inc,
> and Morgan Stanley (may even be JP morgan chase now) only they show up,
> and they dont seem to have 60%.
> Where can I find this major shareholder information?
> 
> Any help with my education would be appreciated, thanks.




Link below. My info was a tad aged and didnt include the recent purchases. Top 20 is now 70% which is a good thing if you are already a holder however they will look to amend that to improve liquidity in the mid term i suspect.

http://www.buysellsignals.com/BuySellSignals/report/Australia/Stock/PDF/Daily/Australia_pdf_1307.pdf


----------



## frankblack

TheAbyss said:


> Link below. My info was a tad aged and didnt include the recent purchases. Top 20 is now 70% which is a good thing if you are already a holder however they will look to amend that to improve liquidity in the mid term i suspect.
> 
> http://www.buysellsignals.com/BuySellSignals/report/Australia/Stock/PDF/Daily/Australia_pdf_1307.pdf




Thanks again, Abyss,
I went to website of  buysellsignals,  I can not find how much they charge for membership,?  is it worth it,?


----------



## TheAbyss

frankblack said:


> Thanks again, Abyss,
> I went to website of  buysellsignals,  I can not find how much they charge for membership,?  is it worth it,?




Dont know mate. I just linked directly to the PDF which if they didnt want to happen would have secured it in the first place.


----------



## maungatapu

frankblack said:


> Thanks for your reply, Abyss
> The top 20 you mentioned holding 60% of Lynas,  I clearly dont know what you mean.?
> 
> Had a look for major holders, any-one with more than 5%,
> only, JP Morgan Chase & Co and its affiliates, The Capital Group Companies, Inc,
> and Morgan Stanley (may even be JP morgan chase now) only they show up,
> and they dont seem to have 60%.
> Where can I find this major shareholder information?
> 
> Any help with my education would be appreciated, thanks.




According to the annual report 2009 p. 83 the top 20 held 68.53%. Presuming the others have not sold down I guess the top 20 would hold a greater % now with Morgan Stanley increasing their holding.


----------



## vincent191

Not going to be a good day today, maybe good opportunity to do some bottom fishing? I reckon anything below 93 cents is worth a punt.


----------



## nioka

vincent191 said:


> Not going to be a good day today, maybe good opportunity to do some bottom fishing? I reckon anything below 93 cents is worth a punt.




The pink sheets price in the USA last night was US$.90 which is still $1 AU. That was on a bad market there. Some trader activity is going on with LYC which means that Friday will not be a good day but I see no reason for any major fall. The fundamentals justify a rise.


----------



## vincent191

nioka said:


> The pink sheets price in the USA last night was US$.90 which is still $1 AU. That was on a bad market there. Some trader activity is going on with LYC which means that Friday will not be a good day but I see no reason for any major fall. The fundamentals justify a rise.





Yup, you are right. Solid as a rock. No bargain basement prices for LYC.  In the absence of any adverse announcements my hopes of picking up LYC at 93 cents is wishful thinking in the current market conditions.


----------



## Southern X

It would seem that LYC is planning to be a full spectrum REE supplier to the planet, ie. LREE with Mt. Weld, and with their taking a strategic substantial position, 9.44%, in NTU:ASX. (Compelled me to take profit in ALK to buy NTU for the HREEs).

Down the track, with positive cash flowing in perhaps a tweak to LAMP, then a t/o of NTU?

Anyone know even if there is anything known about their Malawi property, specifically the LREE to HREE proportions?

SX


----------



## Dreadweave

there's some good opportunity here today , Been following this thread and watching lyc for about a week. 

I'm in at .885


----------



## Huitzii

I got back in today aswell at .885, it seems to be on the bottom atm.
IMHO LYC is a bargin with with its recent highs of $1.05.
Time will tell I suppose and the market will be the deciding factor.
I like to buy on the bottoms and try to pick the top (short term trades as some here already know)
From the chart you can see the 10,68 and 90 day averages are still heading in a northerly direction with mid range volume.
I think the resistance of .90 is about as low as it will go from here but if it looses support at .90 we could see a drop to the next support level of 82.5 cents ...but im hoping that this doesn't happen
Up Up Up LYC


----------



## breaker

Gday all

stock breaking trendline does'nt look to good
my stop 81c
had a great run
good luck


----------



## Huitzii

breaker said:


> Gday all
> 
> *stock breaking trendline does'nt look to good*
> my stop 81c
> had a great run
> good luck




It looks like the market spoke today turning off the bottom of 0.88 as expected and finishing on 0.97 (8.99%), as I was watching closely today I thought it was going to break $1, but it wasnt to be.
So now back inside its bottom trendline it looks good again
If LYC follows the line that I expect it to take, some time next week it could break its high of $1.05....fingers crossed 
Anyhow heres a new chart to see what a positive looking stock looks like.


----------



## breaker

great call lets hope it keeps going

Weekly chart looks real good will post when i find out how
Shot above 30 week EMA and in trend line ,pullback on low volume
Not much volume today, Doji Yesterday [reversal] ,short tale on Green candle today.Good Luck


----------



## frankblack

Huitzii said:


> It looks like the market spoke today turning off the bottom of 0.88 as expected and finishing on 0.97 (8.99%), as I was watching closely today I thought it was going to break $1, but it wasnt to be.
> So now back inside its bottom trendline it looks good again
> If LYC follows the line that I expect it to take, some time next week it could break its high of $1.05....fingers crossed
> Anyhow heres a new chart to see what a positive looking stock looks like.
> 
> View attachment 38636



Much appreciated Huitzii, 
normally something this good is too good to be true,
but then the basket has gone up to $43.00, is there no limit?
What will happen when the basket price drops?


----------



## Huitzii

in the past China has been very dominant in the Rare Earth industry but now LYC has the best opportunity than anyone to capitalise on the restrictions that have been place on the Chinese Rare Earth exports.
China has kept the prices down in the past as there labour and exploration costs have been far less than the rest of the world can compete with.

*China Tightens Grip on Rare Minerals *

By KEITH BRADSHER
Published: August 31, 2009

HONG KONG — China is set to tighten its hammerlock on the market for some of the world’s most obscure but valuable minerals. 
 China currently accounts for 93 percent of production of so-called rare earth elements — and more than 99 percent of the output for two of these elements, dysprosium and terbium, vital for a wide range of green energy technologies and military applications like missiles.

Deng Xiaoping once observed that the Mideast had oil, but China had rare earth elements. As the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries has done with oil, China is now starting to flex its muscle.

Even tighter limits on production and exports, part of a plan from the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology, would ensure China has the supply for its own technological and economic needs, and force more manufacturers to make their wares here in order to have access to the minerals. 
http://www.nytimes.com/2009/09/01/business/global/01minerals.html

*
Mining Studies*

Independent mining experts Australian Mine Design and Development Pty Ltd (AMDAD) prepared preliminary pit optimisations, pit designs and mine schedules over the central part of the CLD. The work confirmed the simplicity and low risk of a mining operation, and the low overall strip ratio for the pit (SR 4.6:1). Due to the high ore grades, the ore production level is forecast to be relatively small, for example; production of 10,500 tonnes REO in the first year of operation will require 120,000 tonnes of ore to be processed. With current demand at 95,000 tonnes per annum the Mt Weld production will represent approximately 11% of the global market. Based on proposed ore treatment options, current Reserves were calculated by AMDAD as 2.1 million tonnes @ 15.5% REO containing 321,000 tonnes REO. This is about 35% of the available resources; Lynas confidently expects that further ore processing studies and inclusion of lower grade ore will result in a mine life in excess of 20 years.
http://www.lynascorp.com/page.asp?category_id=2&page_id=4

*Foundations for the Future*

Lynas has a strategy of creating a reliable, fully integrated source of supply from mine through to customers, and to become the benchmark for security of supply and environmental standards in the global Rare Earths industry.

*Lynas owns the richest deposit of Rare Earths in the world at Mt Weld*, 35km south of Laverton in Western Australia.  A feasibility study has been completed on the Rare Earths deposit and all Australian approvals required for project development have been received.

In past years, Lynas has observed a trend in Chinese Government policy decisions which is leading to an increase in Government control of the Rare Earths industry in China and the tightening of supply due to the imposition of mining production quotas, and the reduction and restrictions on trading of the existing export quota.  These policy decisions have followed the removal of VAT rebates for exports of Rare Earths oxides and an increased enforcement of China's stringent environmental standards which resulted in the closure of non-compliant Rare Earths plants.  
http://www.lynascorp.com/category.asp?category_id=2


----------



## Huitzii

* Friday, August 27, 2010
Rare Earth Metals to continue to shine after China reduces export quotas*

Since January of this year, the prices of rare earth elements (REE) have risen between 22% and 750%, the majority of which occurred after the July announcement that China is reducing their REE quotas further.

*MORE FROM THE SAME ARTICLE*

Australia has its fair share of companies with significant rare earth assets, including Lynas Corporation (ASX: LYC), aims to create a reliable, fully integrated source of REE supply from mine through to customers. Lynas has acted directly on the ever increasing REE supply tightening in China, moving its concentration plant from China to Mount Weld, Australia, and building an Advanced Materials Plant in Malaysia.

The company’s primary asset is their Mount Weld REE Deposit, known as the ‘Central Lanthanide Deposit’, and is, Lynas suggest, “without a doubt the world’s richest Rare Earths ore body, capable of supplying up to 20% of the global market for 30 years”.

Interesting read:
http://www.proactiveinvestors.com.a...e-after-china-reduces-export-quotas-9634.html


----------



## Huitzii

frankblack said:


> Much appreciated Huitzii,
> normally something this good is too good to be true,
> but then the basket has gone up to $43.00, is there no limit?
> What will happen when the basket price drops?




I really dont think that the basket price will drop in the near future, with China exporting 40% less Rare Earth minerals. 
I think that there will be a shortage of supply which can only send the basket price up in the short to mid term IMHO


----------



## AngusSmart

When is Lynas ment to come online to actually start mining and exporting these rare earths??

will they be the first Australian company to do so? what is your thoughts of them buying up 9% of NTU?

i have been watching all these lately and having a bit of a day trade with them, hope to build up enough to have a small parcel in lyc or ntu.


----------



## Huitzii

AngusSmart said:


> When is Lynas ment to come online to actually start mining and exporting these rare earths??
> 
> will they be the first Australian company to do so? what is your thoughts of them buying up 9% of NTU?
> 
> i have been watching all these lately and having a bit of a day trade with them, hope to build up enough to have a small parcel in lyc or ntu.




Lynas is expected to start production in the third term of 2011, and says that it is on track to meet its deadlines.

Lynas was smart to buy 9.5% of NTU, firstly NTU has a small cap with huge long term potential with uranium and rare earths and also by buying into NTU its creating an obstacle for any potential takeovers.
Lets face it Lynas wants to protect the rare earth elements which are held in Australia.

Lynas will definitely be the first to start producing in Australia, their open cut mine at Mt Weld is complete ,with 2 processing plants underway, projected to start processing in the 3rd term of 2011.

All positive from my eyes
It might even be worth having a punt on NTU myself


----------



## nioka

Interesting article,

http://www.theaustralian.com.au/bus...-in-power-battle/story-e6frg90o-1225910731635

"The US Department of Defence will next month publish a report on how much its military relies on (rare earth)materials that, currently, can only be obtained from China."

LYC up 11.39% at Pink sheets yesterday.


----------



## Huitzii

Thats a very good read Noika, and it confirms the direction that my head has been heading recently.
I would be keen to know if any brokers have made any predictions on LYC's  SP in the next 12 months, I wouldnt know where to start but im sure that it will be a lot more than it is now.
To be honest the basket price could go out of control from here if China reduces its exports of Rare Earth Elements by 72% before the end of this year.
Its no wonder that LYC has got 9.5% of NTU after finding out that China has a 51% interest for 15M,  allong with 3 Chineese on the board of NTU.
I would think that LYC was just buying insurance IMHO.
I would expect LYC to up the ante to 15% with NTU in the near future, Which will mean that only about 30% of shares will be floated to the public and IMHO held very tightly. 
Any thoughts?


----------



## nioka

Huitzii said:


> Its no wonder that LYC has got 9.5% of NTU after finding out that China has a 51% interest for 15M,  allong with 3 Chineese on the board of NTU.
> I would think that LYC was just buying insurance IMHO.
> I would expect LYC to up the ante to 15% with NTU in the near future, Which will mean that only about 30% of shares will be floated to the public and IMHO held very tightly.
> Any thoughts?




Chinese interests do not have 51% at this stage and I doubt they ever will. I can't see the FIRB allowing that deal. They did not allow a similar deal for Lynas even when it was recommended by the directors as the only chance for Lynas to survive. It is more likely that Lynas will end up owning at least a majority holding in NTU.


----------



## Huitzii

nioka said:


> Chinese interests do not have 51% at this stage and I doubt they ever will. I can't see the FIRB allowing that deal. They did not allow a similar deal for Lynas even when it was recommended by the directors as the only chance for Lynas to survive. It is more likely that Lynas will end up owning at least a majority holding in NTU.




You are correct Noika, here are the current terms as from 9th August 2010 in regards to the ECE letter of intent:

Conditions
Completion of the transaction is subject to the following conditions:
• Satisfactory completion of confirmatory due diligence by ECE and a review by Northern Uranium;
• Execution of definitive transaction documentation embodying the terms of the Letter of Intent;
• ECE obtaining the approval of the Jiangsu Provincial People’s Government;
• ECE receiving notification under the Foreign Acquisitions and Takeovers Act that the Australian Commonwealth Government has no objection to its investment in Northern Uranium; and
• Approval by Northern Uranium shareholders at an extraordinary general meeting.
http://www.northernuranium.com.au/files/announcements/10-08-09  ECE NTU Announcement.pdf


----------



## frankblack

You dont read much about Germany trying to secure supply of rare earths.
As such a powerhouse of new technology and exports, what are they doing to get their hands on the stuff.?
Do they have better arrangements in place?(with China)
Or are they planning to do without rare earths? Bypassing the need altogether.
I wonder???


----------



## Huitzii

frankblack said:


> You dont read much about Germany trying to secure supply of rare earths.
> As such a powerhouse of new technology and exports, what are they doing to get their hands on the stuff.?
> Do they have better arrangements in place?(with China)
> Or are they planning to do without rare earths? Bypassing the need altogether.
> I wonder???




Here is a couple of interesting snippets and a vid.
In the video look in the background for an interesting insight

http://www.reuters.com/resources/flash/include_video.swf?edition=US&videoId=1702495

    * Tantalus Rare Earths AG’s headquarter is located in DÃ¼sseldorf, Germany.
    * Current investment portfolio consists of 100 % of the Tantalus Rare Earths Project in Madagascar.
    * The project in Northern Madagascar has a total size of 300 km ².
    * Target commodities of the project are rare earth elements, tantalum, niobium, zirconium and tin.
http://www.tre-ag.com/en/company_profile.php

And some interesting talks with China and Japan on Friday Regarding Rare Earts
*Japan, China to launch talks on rare earth metals export controls*
BEIJING (Kyodo) -- Japan and China agreed Saturday they will launch a vice minister-level meeting to study Tokyo's call for Beijing to ease export controls on rare earth metals used in hybrid electric vehicles, mobile phones and other high-tech products.

Japan asked China to ease export restrictions on rare earth metals, but Beijing dismissed the request citing national security concerns and natural resources protection, according to Japanese officials.

China argued that the export controls would not violate World Trade Organization rules, the officials said.
http://mdn.mainichi.jp/mdnnews/business/news/20100828p2g00m0bu045000c.html

*Key Components Of America’s Military Are Now Dominated By A Chinese Monopoly 
*

How can we put this without sounding alarmist?

Most of America’s key military technologies require rare earth elements, whose production China holds a near-monopoly over.

The GAO report said the US had been self-sufficient in rare earth minerals for most of the post-War era. The key mine at Mountain Pass in California shut down in the 1990s when China flooded the market with exports and drove Western mines out of business. One by one, US-based processing plants owned by German and Japanese firms switched operations to China. There are none left.
http://www.prisonplanet.com/key-com...-are-now-dominated-by-a-chinese-monopoly.html

And this one if you can read German? As I cant read German.
http://tre-ag.com/press-rare-earths/100803_das-erste_de.pdf


----------



## pixel

Huitzii said:


> And this one if you can read German? As I cant read German.
> http://tre-ag.com/press-rare-earths/100803_das-erste_de.pdf




The last article is talking about the same issue from a German perspective.
Firstly, it explains rare earths, how they look, and how China has monopolised the supply/ cornered the market.
Then it explains in detail some of the components in modern technology that don't operate without RE metals. 
Example Neodymium: harder than iron and holds magnetism indefinitely at 25-times the strength of an iron magnet. Such perma magnets are indispensible in headphones, disk drives, car engines, even wind turbines.
Example Cerium: UV protection in glass, Ni batteries
etc...

No need to translate the full article - it merely tells the same story, just in another language: German.

Oh - one quote by Deng Xiaoping is new, at least to me. He is reported as having said "The Middle East has Oil. China has Rare Earths." Probably no exaggeration either.


----------



## vincent191

Rare Earths are not actually that rare, some elements are more abundant than some of the everyday elements than we use regularly. Problem is RE are seldom found in rich high concentrated deposits and even in China there are only a few places where they have rich deposits. LYC's deposits are also considered very rich by world standards. 

I don't believe China has the rest of the world at it's mercy, not in the long term, BUT it has a head start. If the US want to reopen Mountain Pass it can do so, there is still a lot of RE buried in there. Only problem is it may take a few years to get back into production. LYC is well placed to start production by the fourth quarter of next year.

In my opinion China & LYC are well placed to take full advantage of the RE market in the next 10 to 15 years before the rest of the world catches up. Meanwhile make hay while the sun shines.


----------



## Southern X

nioka said:


> The pink sheets price in the USA last night was US$.90 which is still $1 AU. That was on a bad market there. Some trader activity is going on with LYC which means that Friday will not be a good day but I see no reason for any major fall. The fundamentals justify a rise.




Judging from the relative volumes between the ADR, LYSDY (it appears a unit comprising 10 LYC shares) and LYC, I believe there is no arb play. Also, I think sp is defined by LYC, ie. LYSDY solely takes its lead from LYC, unless of course there's after hours news. Regarding same REE company different bourse + currency I know only one (excluding the pinks), RES:TSX-V / REE:AMEX. It just recently was listed on the AMEX. Both volume and sp have rocketed!

Regarding production, to reiterate from yesterday's lost posts:

In the conference call Curtis stated Q3 2011. Though later he said Q4. There has been a one month delay costing $4 million, though LYC has a $25 million budgeted for such delays (and, I suppose, buying 9.44% of HREE exploreco NTU!). Nevertheless, I like Q3's sound better.

SX

Disclosure in the REE sphere: LYC, ARU, NTU; on the TSX-V: RES, QRM, UCU.


----------



## frankblack

Does any-one find the way LYC is trading at the moment strange, or is it just me?
25 million today, Is this day trading? Who are the winners here? Who are the losers?
Just doesnt make sense to me.
Thanks to all who contribute here, this has to be one of the best threads.


----------



## Southern X

I've been giving that thought as well. Aside from chart patterns I sense a buying pattern. Essentially it's one based on accumulation. Days of tremendous volume mostly on the upside; then a news release announcing an initial substantial holder or positive change by a substantial holder; pause; dip, then resume buying pressure.

The liquidity and daily trading range can give day-traders a tingle, but moreso I see swing traders/momo traders here. This is just a feeling as I'm not chartist enough to see the evidence of such moves, just sign posts. Further, don't forget the big houses can also short, thereby capping the sp ensuring they don't over pay.

SX


----------



## nioka

frankblack said:


> Does any-one find the way LYC is trading at the moment strange, or is it just me?
> 25 million today, Is this day trading? Who are the winners here? Who are the losers?
> Just doesnt make sense to me.
> Thanks to all who contribute here, this has to be one of the best threads.




Without a doubt there are very active day traders on LYC. I suggest that there were a few burnt fingers today. A lot of the volume is probably day trade churn. Winners and losers? They take money from one another.


----------



## noie

nioka said:


> Without a doubt there are very active day traders on LYC. I suggest that there were a few burnt fingers today. A lot of the volume is probably day trade churn. Winners and losers? They take money from one another.




Up 2% then down 6..
still weird volume for this stock (but maybe the weird will be the normal)

26690492 vol in  2695 trades...  and we are looking around 20 mill average for just over a month now...


----------



## gjnj1962

to all you lyc investors,there is a god and his name is nick curtis ,this is just the begining,yanks & canadians eat your hearts out.i am a holder of lyc shares & have been for the past 5 years.


----------



## KurwaJegoMac

LYC has upped its' RE resource estimate by 19.4%. Wonderful news 

http://www.thebull.com.au/articles/a/14060-lynas-ups-rare-earths-resource-estimate.html


----------



## nioka

gjnj1962 said:


> to all you lyc investors,there is a god and his name is nick curtis ,




Just remember that this is the same Curtis that said not so long ago that the only way for LYC to survive was to sell a 51% interest to the Chinese government. He had to be dragged screaming from that senario by shareholder pressure on the FIRB to stop the deal.


----------



## gjnj1962

NIOKA thanks for your response but also remember nick had no suitable options at the time but to go chinese.
regards


----------



## nioka

gjnj1962 said:


> NIOKA thanks for your response but also remember nick had no suitable options at the time but to go chinese.
> regards




They did have an option, they always had the option of going to the shareholders but chose not to do so. They had to take that option when the Chinese deal fell through. I have emails to and from the company in my files that show that to be a FACT. It is no thanks to Curtis or the board that the company was saved as an Australian company. They acted to save their jobs. It was shareholders and the FIRB that saved the company (and their jobs.)


----------



## vincent191

Nioka, I completely agree with you.  Curtis is a very good friend with the Chinese and has some very powerful connections.  I wonder???


----------



## Southern X

Many a long night I pondered why LYC didn't seek a listing on the AIM, or TSX, even the TSX-V, or AMEX, like RES:TSX-V (REE:AMEX).

This of course coincided with delving into the construct of a Lloyd Blankfein voodoo doll, rusty pins included. (Whatever happened to that escrow cash?)

SX


----------



## vincent191

Samething with RIO, they went straight to the Chinese before giving their own shareholders a go.


----------



## blackjack

whatever happened it all turned out to be the best as I have made a motsa on it now - thanks
when they start production it should go further north


----------



## prs

I've been off the radar for awhile and looking to buy some more shares. I have enough coverage in uranium and am interested in Lynas. Anyone with thoughts as to how far LYC may go?


----------



## Southern X

Uranium has been dead for a while, a long while.  LYC is goinng UP; much like Ux will do one day. Being too early is just as bad as being late, ie. loss. I monitor the Ux space, especially just NOW. With the Greens' energy-Luddite Ux policies + mining tax, I'm thinking of moving = taking profit.

I've come to the unpopular opinion that Oz is a solid 19th century society "moving forward" to the 20th century. The Greens will ruin this country for international investors. The two other parties not only lack integrity at the top, but are bereft of policy, thought, and direction. A pox on both their houses. 

Have we a government? Must check.

Sorry for the rant. In closing, the sun don't shine outta the western suburbs' a$$, there is an Oz beyond those mortgage stressed, commuter stressed, self-esteemed challenged LOSERS.

SX


----------



## BraceFace

The rare earths story has really captured the attention of smart investors. The chinese monopoly story makes sense to less sophisticated investors looking to lock in big profits.

Anyone with any interest in RE would have made a killing by buying and holding LYC, ARU, ALK in recent months.
Even day traders would have done well with increased volumes.

There are other RE players on the horizon without so much upside built in.
Take a look at PEK for example. Assay results on RE samples from Tanzania should be coming in very soon and we could then see another bolter.

RE is the Uranium speccie of 2010!


----------



## lllisswell

SO is LYC junk or the real deal?  i believe in the now and future importance of REE and am wary of the Chinese 97% monopoly of REE, so I plopped down some dollars for the American ADRs of LYC (traded as LYSDY on pink sheets).  So far so good.  Meanwhile, what information is there direct from Mt. Weld area?  A local newspaper?  Anyone have a link?  I'm in USA... good luck and good night all.  Nobody I know would know what a REE is.


----------



## Southern X

LYC is the real deal, viz. "substantial" holders including JP Morgan, and Morgan Stanley; JP has a research report on LYC. I've read it, but don't have a copy, grrr. Since it was first published by JP on 28.6.10 with a target of A$0.91 they've increased they're target to A$1.31. I believe there'll be another target increase probably based on: a) resource upgrade; b) new higher price for REEs; c) production update concerning LAMP; d) whatever, and; e) takeover premium because LYC will be first past the post.

If you want to spread around your risk, but stay on US soil there's MCP:NYSE, and REE:AMEX, also in Alaska there's an HREE trading on the Toronto Venture, Ucore, UCU:TSX-V.

Now, once you've filled your positions tell everyone you know the REE story!LOL.

SX

I own UCU:TSX-V and RES:TSX-V (REE:AMEX) amongst others.


----------



## noie

BraceFace said:


> The rare earths story has really captured the attention of smart investors. The chinese monopoly story makes sense to less sophisticated investors looking to lock in big profits.
> 
> Anyone with any interest in RE would have made a killing by buying and holding LYC, ARU, ALK in recent months.
> Even day traders would have done well with increased volumes.
> 
> There are other RE players on the horizon without so much upside built in.
> Take a look at PEK for example. Assay results on RE samples from Tanzania should be coming in very soon and we could then see another bolter.
> 
> RE is the Uranium speccie of 2010!




I agree with you here, REE's are looking very interesting. (not long ago)
I took a small holding of anything i thought was REE related, (i know it is a bad way to trade but it forces me to do my research), in that time i have seen a 3% gain and the following :

Gain	15
Lose	4
Even	3

The losers funnily have been, the ones i was expecting the most from 

AEE	
CYU	
LYN	
NTU


----------



## noie

Southern X said:


> .......
> If you want to spread around your risk, but stay on US soil there's MCP:NYSE, and REE:AMEX, also in Alaska there's an HREE trading on the Toronto Venture, Ucore, UCU:TSX-V.
> 
> Now, once you've filled your positions tell everyone you know the REE story!LOL.
> 
> SX
> 
> I own UCU:TSX-V and RES:TSX-V (REE:AMEX) amongst others.




Going slightly off track, MCP and REE have done a lot of work in the last 2 months..  both have gained close to 100% in that time... 
i have not seen such pretty graph's in a while, but feel this boat has sailed.


----------



## nioka

"13 September 2010 Working Capital Facility – OCBC Bank (Malaysia) Berhad Lynas Corporation Limited (ASX:LYC, OTC:LYSDY) is pleased to announce that the Lynas group of companies have accepted a letter of offer for the following working capital facilities from OCBC Bank (Malaysia) Berhad, which is equivalent to approximately A$30,000,000: Type of Facilities Limits Revolving Credit RM50,000,000 Overdraft RM10,000,000 Letters of Credit (sight/term 150 days) (RM25,000,000)* Bankers Acceptances (90 days) (RM25,000,000)* Shipping Guarantees (RM25,000,000)* Letter of Guarantee (RM25,000,000)* TOTAL RM85,000,000 *Combined limits interchangeable with total outstanding not exceeding RM25,000,000. These working capital facilities are unsecured. They will fund working capital requirements including those needed during the commissioning and ramp-up of the Lynas Advanced Materials Plant (LAMP) in Malaysia."

The loan funds available to Lynas will ensure that the program to production is fully funded. It is a sign of a successful company that these funds are available unsecured. The company has recently stated that the program is proceeding on time and on budget.


----------



## AngusSmart

HONG KONG ”” Sharply raising the stakes in a dispute over Japan's detention of a Chinese fishing trawler captain, the Chinese government has blocked exports to Japan of a crucial category of minerals used in products like hybrid cars, wind turbines and guided missiles. 

Read on here..

http://www.nytimes.com/2010/09/23/business/global/23rare.html?_r=1&scp=1&sq=rare earths&st=cse


----------



## grap10

Thanks Angus...a very good article about RE. Be interesting to see if this has any impact on price today.


----------



## AngusSmart

grap10 said:


> Thanks Angus...a very good article about RE. Be interesting to see if this has any impact on price today.




It appears its all bull****..

http://www.smh.com.au/world/trade-f...tricting-exports-to-japan-20100923-15ot6.html


----------



## gjnj1962

its not bull according to dudley kingsnorth and he should know,also nick curtis of lyc e mailed me the story saying its a unofficial embargo with japan,wink wink nudge nudge.


----------



## Southern X

Regardless of the piece's accuracy it highlights/spotlights: a) China's REE dominance, b) its effortless ability to wield instant central control, and c) what GREAT publicity for a still under reported group of commodities.

Perception often trumps reality, eg. $5000/oz Au suggests wealth for those that bought at $1000, but at $5000 I'd prefer to have tins of soup and bullets.

SX


----------



## Ken Kwong

One golfer friend told me that RE will be so valuable in future that the share price of LYC will hit over $10!!  The Chinese government definitely will put an embargo on the export of RE.  Could it be another commodity bubble "talk"???

Suddenly, the prices of ARU and ALK look good too.


----------



## TheAbyss

Ken Kwong said:


> One golfer friend told me that RE will be so valuable in future that the share price of LYC will hit over $10!!  The Chinese government definitely will put an embargo on the export of RE.  Could it be another commodity bubble "talk"???
> 
> Suddenly, the prices of ARU and ALK look good too.




Careful, whilst i hold LYC and am loving the run, an ounce of caution is required as there are reasons that this could all fall over and i am sure there are others that will come from left field.

1. Chinese could change there ruling and start exporting

2. The USA alone can meet the world requirements of RE by themselves and voted last week to resume mining (they stopped because they couldnt compete with the chinese). It will take them a conservative 10 years to ramp up again apparently so not all bad news there

3. We will reach saturation point as miners start to ramp up and produce RE and as we all know, once a commodity becomes easily available the price falls so margins will reduce

4. As with every commodity run the smaller end of town will post all sorts of announcements regarding RE exploration and ludicrous targets - Be wary an dget out fast with profits 

Lot of other reasons to be careful but make hay while you can people.


----------



## Southern X

Abyss. I agree with your ponts (except for #1) especially as they heighten caution in this space going forward.

The US will meet its own needs in, I believe, well under 10 years. First, MCP by no later than 2012 according to their own reckoning. I think 2015 is a safer bet. That alone takes care of most of the LREEs the world needs. If they want to top up their reserves there's REE:AMEX/RES:TSXV in Wyoming. For the HREEs there's UCU:TSXV in Alaska, and QRM:TSXV in Quebec.

The above speak to your 3rd point, saturation. It will come with a vengeful slaughter to share prices. It will happen some time before MCP comes on-line. This is unless there's a blow-off spike. Which will surely blow up the pigs as first the bulls then later the bears make a killing.

"Penny-dreadfuls," are already making their presence felt, so I very well heed you last points concerning research and taking profits!

It is in HREEs where I think the yummy money will be made, and lost, by the aforementioned pigs. Do not misunderstand, HREEs will also pop, but their ascension will be more profitable, and collapse more gut "once yummy" spewing.

So, $10 for LYC?! Why not, especially if Oz makes it a "darling" as PDN once was, and there's a genuine bubble. But $17 Billion cap -- I don't think so, I'm over the moon for $5!!

Good Luck

SX


----------



## nioka

TheAbyss said:


> The USA alone can meet the world requirements of RE by themselves and voted last week to resume mining (they stopped because they couldnt compete with the chinese). It will take them a conservative 10 years to ramp up again apparently so not all bad news there




Maybe.... But who knows what the world requirements will be in 10 years time. these elements are finding new and important uses every year. If you look back 10 years some of them had no significant use then. Then there will be their cost of production that will also be taken into account, they may not be the cheapest producer.


----------



## noie

Southern X said:


> .............
> The US will meet its own needs in, I believe, well under 10 years. First, MCP by no later than 2012 according to their own reckoning. I think 2015 is a safer bet. That alone takes care of most of the LREEs the world needs. If they want to top up their reserves there's REE:AMEX/RES:TSXV in Wyoming. For the HREEs there's UCU:TSXV in Alaska, and QRM:TSXV in Quebec.
> ................
> SX




All this talk of external to China REE producers and you miss who I think will prove to gain the most

TSX:AVL
Avalon Rare Metals Inc. is a mineral exploration and development company focused on rare metals deposits in Canada. Its flagship project, the 100%-owned Nechalacho Deposit, Thor Lake, NWT, is emerging as one of the largest undeveloped rare earth elements resources in the world. Its exceptional enrichment in the more valuable 'heavy' rare earth elements, which are key to enabling advances in clean technology and other growing high-tech applications, is one of the few potential sources of these critical elements outside of China, currently the source of 95% of world supply. Avalon is well funded, has no debt and its work programs are progressing steadily.

(taken from http://www.raremetalblog.com/avalon-rare-metals-inc/)


----------



## enigmatic

I think we can all agree that the current price of REE will drop some time in the future once future supply comes on board.

However like most people say the demand for REE is growing at a rapid pace and the uses for these are being created each and every day.

The question is can supply keep up with demand, most REE projects take 5-10years to develop if not more. And i very much doubt china will change its policies for a reason, they want to control the market as they are aware of its importance to the future.


----------



## Southern X

There are several elements all impacting the REE field. In no particular order:

1) Pricing. From now until MCP, LYC, ARU and ALK produce REE prices, as a function of supply and demand, will increase. The wildcard here is China. I believe they are coming to the realization that "controlling" the market beyond the medium term is lost. China is now implementing policy -- environmental, elimination of dozens of small producers, tightening export "leak" -- which coincidentally(?!) coincides with some of the aforementioned miners becoming producers. I, then, believe China will a) focus on supplying the world with REEs already fully value added, eg. in something big like a wind turbine, or finished like a magnet, and; b) hunt down HREE supplies.

2) HREEs. Explorecos with a predominant proportion of their TREOs in HREEs will now/soon begin to go up with a vengeance. 

3) First past the post. No one, Chinese excluded (see above) beats the Aussies here for choice. Yes, MCP, but they've got to re-build their facilities almost from scratch. So line 'em up boys! LYC, ARU, ALK! The Cannucks have REAL prospects. AVL will take years, end of decade time-line, needs hundreds of millions of dollars, its IRR is poor, and its reserve is being questioned (might be a part of a short attack), but it's heavy on the HREEs. A little further down the pecking order even the great the LREEs may go broke, flounder, be range bound, but no great gains.

4) Mania. All boats, including "penny dreadfuls," will rise. ALL. Take profit, DO NOT BE A PIG. To sober up have a look at 5 year Ux charts.

5) For real profit, real risk have a look at Rob McEwen's model/graphic on the evolution of a succesful mine from IPO to production. (If someone can find it and post it here it provides a great context with road signs as to buy, hold, sell.)

Well, sorry to bore, but those are a few, far from all, things which help me put this REE thing in perspective.

NOW LET'S MAKE MONEY!!!

SX


----------



## Southern X

A few other points to consider when developing a strategy for one's portfolio:

http://www.resourceinvestor.com/New...he-Goldilocks-RareEarth-Mining-Principle.aspx

... sniffing around for more Aussie HREEs...

SX


----------



## Trevor Perth

I understand that Greenland Minerals and Energy Limited (GGG, formerly The Gold Company Limited) is a mineral exploration and development company focused on unlocking the mineral riches of southern Greenland. 
REE being their main interest.
Can anyone advise?


----------



## nioka

Trevor Perth said:


> I understand that Greenland Minerals and Energy Limited (GGG, formerly The Gold Company Limited) is a mineral exploration and development company focused on unlocking the mineral riches of southern Greenland.
> REE being their main interest.
> Can anyone advise?




Try the GGG Greenlands Minerals and energy threads on ASF... Plenty of information there.....


----------



## Southern X

Regarding GGG I think very, very little of them. On a fundamental level I do not think management is worthy. Through most of August GGG was suspended from trading by, (incredibly!!) their waiting for a news release by ministry officials of the Greenland government. (Actually I did not think such a rubbish reason was legal, but hey, that's the ASX et al.)

Further, GGG has legal battle with Westrip(?). 

Though they are cashed up, have a purportedly huge REE deposit including Ux,and have an AIM listing I just find them MISMANAGED.

I would write further, but it would certainly be censored, so I'll leave with two things. One, the cockroach theory. Two, disgust.

SX


----------



## AngryDwarf

I have taken a beating on these over the last couple of weeks. I'm wondering how much lower they will go. I cant find anything that has changed, all the announcements and info surrounding Rare Earth's seem to be positive for shares but they are going down faster than my ex girlfriend.


----------



## ParleVouFrancois

RE: Angry Dwarf, why did you buy into LYC, if it was for fundamental reasons, e.g. it's fundamentally worth more than it's trading for, you should hold. Price action between now and when you sell with intrinsic value investing doesn't matter. All that matters is you've come to the right conclusion of your intrinsic valuation, and as you've stated nothing has changed. The "noise" from the market shouldn't spook you, only a change in the fundamentals which you state haven't changed, so don't stress.

If you're technical investing go for it, I have very limited knowledge of how technical investing works.

TBQH I sold out at 1.54ish because it looked a little overbought and I'm back in at around these levels, intrinsic value is going to keep rising as we approach production, each day is another day closer to the time we get to make bucketloads of cash from selling REE.


----------



## AngusSmart

China is now shipping ree again.. i think this may be a reason in why all ree stocks have taken a beating..

there was a news article from the ny times floating around somewhere to confirm this..

China should

Invest now.. and cut exports again.. sell when high. re ship ree and watch it drop.. and repeat... $$$

china has the ree world by the balls..


----------



## eddyeagle

AngryDwarf said:


> I have taken a beating on these over the last couple of weeks. I'm wondering how much lower they will go. I cant find anything that has changed, all the announcements and info surrounding Rare Earth's seem to be positive for shares but they are going down faster than my ex girlfriend.




Couple of fund managers taking profits (JPM and Morgan Stanley) and also was tipped as a sell in ASCI newsletter, which has a rather large subscriber base. Also, the SP had tripled since Mid July so was always going to be due for a pull-back... 

Looking at the chart, it may find some support around $1.40, but if global markets turn ugly, might take more of a hit.


----------



## AngryDwarf

Thanks guys, I have had LYC shares for over a year and have been VERY happy with them up until now. 
I jumped in because there were murmurs that China would wind back their rare earth exports and LYC had a vision of becoming the biggest rare earth provider outside of China and predicted the share price could only go up if there is less competition. 
I just couldn't see any reason for the sharp drop and was worried I had missed some news. I will hold them and see what happens I guess. I doubt they will drop below $0.50 (what I picked them up for). 

Thanks again.


----------



## bpdoz

LYC got hammered (again).. 
What's going on, is that only because JPMorgan cut their recommendation last week?? 
Weird...


----------



## nioka

bpdoz said:


> LYC got hammered (again)..
> What's going on, is that only because JPMorgan cut their recommendation last week??
> Weird...




Morgan Stanley are playing ducks and drakes with the stock. At this stage only they know the reason. This is not the first time this has happened to LYC and it is not the first time Morgan Stanley have been involved in this type of suspect trading. Maybe they need cash in a hurry, who knows?. The lack of new significant holder notices could mean that they or someone else is both buying and selling and causing a lemming rush.

When this sort of thing happens to a stock there is a need to check the fundamentals. I have and to me they appear sound. If LYC had a lot of debt then I would worry that a repeat of their previous problem could occur. They do not have debt and management assurances are that they are on budget and on track. I'm happy enough to take the opportunity to buy more at these prices. DYOR.


----------



## vincent191

nioka said:


> Morgan Stanley are playing ducks and drakes with the stock. At this stage only they know the reason. This is not the first time this has happened to LYC and it is not the first time Morgan Stanley have been involved in this type of suspect trading. Maybe they need cash in a hurry, who knows?. The lack of new significant holder notices could mean that they or someone else is both buying and selling and causing a lemming rush.
> 
> When this sort of thing happens to a stock there is a need to check the fundamentals. I have and to me they appear sound. If LYC had a lot of debt then I would worry that a repeat of their previous problem could occur. They do not have debt and management assurances are that they are on budget and on track. I'm happy enough to take the opportunity to buy more at these prices. DYOR.





Plus the newspapers are calling the RE a bubble and panic some folks. Also Arafu's (ARU) placement had been rejected by the Chinese. As far as LYC is concern I don't see any change in the fundamentals. I think this is only a correction and the sp will recover.


----------



## Southern X

bpdoz:

1) I believe it started PRIOR to JP cutting its call. From the LYC nr,4.10.10, JP ceased to be a substantial holder. This was a yellow flag.

2) Just before LYC's conference call 28.10.10, (that very week?) JP downgraded LYC. It was almost exactly at LYC's all time high. This was also a yellow flag.

3) LYC began its ascendancy the first half of July, becoming parabolic (along with many in the sector, eg. ARU. This is a red flag.

4) With JP no longer being a substantial/reporting holder;  JP retained a road-trainful of stock; I surmised from points the above points that they could SHORT the $hit out of LYC. Combine their "possible" shorting with everyone from Goldman to your neighbour seeing a shorting opportunity in LYC, ARU, etc. slaughter ensued.

I sold just after the conference call.

Nothing has changed fundamentally with this space. The more advanced companies had unreasonable valuations, eg. LYC's bigger market cap than the entire world REE sales/year. 

I still favour this space, hence this post, and am in HREEs, NTU and ORM. This is because China has VERY litte amounts of HREEs, and where the explorecos are along the company development/evolution stage. On the TSX-V I think I may very well re-enter during tax-loss season selling.

Just my thoughts. Hope that gives perspective bddoz.

SX


----------



## TabJockey

Can you podcast those IB conference calls or are they only for people in the biz?


----------



## nioka

Lynas going along in leaps and bounds today following news of a large japanese interest, backed with cash by the way, in securing a long term reliable supply of rare earths. Looking good for the future with rising product prices, company on track and on budget and production presold.


----------



## aussie2004

A big day for LYC today. In commsec more buyers and less sellers . . . coming weeks will tell how far LYC gets up


----------



## nioka

aussie2004 said:


> A big day for LYC today. In commsec more buyers and less sellers . . . coming weeks will tell how far LYC gets up





LYC is still suffering from price manipulation, the bots were firmly in control for most of the day. Morgans appear to be still playing games and are probably milking this stock for all its worth on its way up to a realistic value based on its fundamentals. I'm holding until at least the start of production. It is too hard to trade it the way it is being played. 

Now that it has made the ASX100 there should be some funds buying and holding LYC. This should be a stabilising factor.


----------



## RAREARTH

Whilst waiting for production to start, why not check out Navigator Resources (NAV) which expects to issue an ASX announcement early next week relative to the proposed spin-off of its rare earths asset - expect some free shares to be allotted to existing NAV holders.


----------



## ParleVouFrancois

I'm not sure how appropriate that cross-promotion of Navigator resources is. I mean that was basically an advertisement for NAV on the LYC board...


----------



## nioka

ParleVouFrancois said:


> I'm not sure how appropriate that cross-promotion of Navigator resources is. I mean that was basically an advertisement for NAV on the LYC board...




You are not sure. I am sure it is cross promotion and ramping a stock that could not be compared with LYC for value. NAV is that far behind in the rare earth business compared to LYC that it is not even on my "interested" list.


----------



## TabJockey

Can anyone verify that the REE prices on the Lynas website are accurate? $70 a kilo per average weighted REE is a big rise from Q3 yet the price action has not followed what you would think would be a big rise in future profits?

Also does anyone have an estimate of total cash cost per tonne?

or even total operating costs per tonne?

Just wondering what sort of payback ratio its going to have over the next 2 or 3 years.


----------



## nioka

TabJockey said:


> Can anyone verify that the REE prices on the Lynas website are accurate? $70 a kilo per average weighted REE is a big rise from Q3 yet the price action has not followed what you would think would be a big rise in future profits?
> 
> Also does anyone have an estimate of total cash cost per tonne?
> 
> or even total operating costs per tonne?
> 
> Just wondering what sort of payback ratio its going to have over the next 2 or 3 years.




Lynas website has been shown to be accurate as prices are published on different metal exchanges.

Lynas has published costs around $7 kilo. Calculations by outside sources have used costs around $9 to establish value for LYC. They also use $30 on a regular basis as a sale price. Even using the high cost and low value revenue there is still a very short pay back time. 

These can easily be checked from company and broker news releases.


----------



## TabJockey

nioka said:


> Lynas website has been shown to be accurate as prices are published on different metal exchanges.
> 
> Lynas has published costs around $7 kilo. Calculations by outside sources have used costs around $9 to establish value for LYC. They also use $30 on a regular basis as a sale price. Even using the high cost and low value revenue there is still a very short pay back time.
> 
> These can easily be checked from company and broker news releases.




Thanks Noika I searched some reports but could not find a predicted cost per kg. Lynas has contracts to sell its rare earths with a price floor but no ceiling? The basket price per kg is currently at $70 and demand is predicted to rise, so $30 feels like a conservative estimate to me.

So taking a $9 cost and a $30 price, thats $21 a kg profit on 11 000 tons in the first year: which equals a 230M profit.

With 500m shares out there thats a ball park figure of 30c earnings per share after tax. Makes $1.50 look very low.

Is there something im missing here? I am just a student.


----------



## drlog

TabJockey said:


> Thanks Noika I searched some reports but could not find a predicted cost per kg. Lynas has contracts to sell its rare earths with a price floor but no ceiling? The basket price per kg is currently at $70 and demand is predicted to rise, so $30 feels like a conservative estimate to me.
> 
> So taking a $9 cost and a $30 price, thats $21 a kg profit on 11 000 tons in the first year: which equals a 230M profit.
> 
> With 500m shares out there thats a ball park figure of 30c earnings per share after tax. Makes $1.50 look very low.
> 
> Is there something im missing here? I am just a student.




I am guessing that the market has priced in some kind of risk - the company has never made a profit so something could go horribly wrong that was unforeseen. For example, one of the chemical processes could be more difficult than expected (yes, I made that up, I have no idea what could go wrong).

However, *IF* you are right and the profit/kg is correct and there are no problems processing the material then yes, we shareholders should make some money


----------



## TabJockey

drlog said:


> I am guessing that the market has priced in some kind of risk - the company has never made a profit so something could go horribly wrong that was unforeseen. For example, one of the chemical processes could be more difficult than expected (yes, I made that up, I have no idea what could go wrong).
> 
> However, *IF* you are right and the profit/kg is correct and there are no problems processing the material then yes, we shareholders should make some money





Fantastic, also any idea when they are going to raise another 250m to start phase 2? good time to buy more.


----------



## vincent191

drlog said:


> I am guessing that the market has priced in some kind of risk - the company has never made a profit so something could go horribly wrong that was unforeseen. For example, one of the chemical processes could be more difficult than expected (yes, I made that up, I have no idea what could go wrong).




You have guessed CORRECTLY, they are having problems in getting one of their chemical processes to deliver the expected results in early testing. I don't know the exact nature ot how serious it is. I got this from a broker report and don't ask me which broker - I cannot remember.


----------



## nioka

drlog said:


> I am guessing that the market has priced in some kind of risk - the company has never made a profit so something could go horribly wrong that was unforeseen. For example, one of the chemical processes could be more difficult than expected (yes, I made that up, I have no idea what could go wrong).
> 
> However, *IF* you are right and the profit/kg is correct and there are no problems processing the material then yes, we shareholders should make some money




Take into consideration that stage two is partly sold out too. That could double the income and reduce costs also. The LYC share price has been manipulated by shorting and heavy trader activity and is in my opinion being held well below its value. I can see very little that can go wrong with the start up of the plant as it uses a proven technology and appears to have top technical staff.


----------



## Magic Man

HEY Nioka.

just wondered if u had a 12 month price target on Lynas??

Thanks


----------



## oldblue

vincent191 said:


> You have guessed CORRECTLY, they are having problems in getting one of their chemical processes to deliver the expected results in early testing. I don't know the exact nature ot how serious it is. I got this from a broker report and don't ask me which broker - I cannot remember.




It would be useful if you could search your memory really hard, vincent, and point us in the direction of this report.

Any problems with their processes are likely to have a material bearing on their SP and will need to be disclosed to the market.


----------



## nioka

Magic Man said:


> HEY Nioka.
> 
> just wondered if u had a 12 month price target on Lynas??
> 
> Thanks




I don't like to put price targets. I hold a share on the basis that there is plenty of room "upside". With LYC there appears to be a lot of room there. 

Firstly because the step from devellopment and construction to production will give a boost to any stock.
Secondly. There is no other company within a "boars roar" of LYC when it comes to having product for sale, time wise.
Thirdly. It looks as though stage two is sold out. The Chinese restrictions are making users of rare earth outside China edgy about the future and will keep the product in demand, not only for their immediate needs but also to build up buffer stocks. Stage 3 a possibility.

The obvious big margin between costs and probable selling price means that LYC should be very profitable and multiples of todays price possible.


----------



## vincent191

oldblue said:


> It would be useful if you could search your memory really hard, vincent, and point us in the direction of this report.
> 
> Any problems with their processes are likely to have a material bearing on their SP and will need to be disclosed to the market.





Ok I will go home and dig up last week's papers & magazines. Hopefully I can find it again. I am not making up stories.


----------



## drlog

vincent191 said:


> Ok I will go home and dig up last week's papers & magazines. Hopefully I can find it again. I am not making up stories.




I was also dubious when you made your earlier statement. I was just speculating about what could possibly go wrong. For example, one important question is: Are all of the elements affected by this chemical process? They may be able to extract all elements except Thulium in which case they will still be able to make a lot of money (but perhaps slightly less money). However, if it is really a case of them not being able to process ANY of the elements then this is significant.

Once again, I am making stuff up, I have no idea what I am talking about, DYOR!


----------



## mattryanshares

Well i hope you guys are right i bought 500 of these on a hunch, with no experience at all i was going to dump them a few weeks ago but everything appears positive??


----------



## TabJockey

mattryanshares said:


> Well i hope you guys are right i bought 500 of these on a hunch, with no experience at all i was going to dump them a few weeks ago but everything appears positive??




Mattryan thats a little bit inappropriate, everyone has thier own investment goals and financial advice is not offered on this forum, if you want someone to pick stocks for you, pay for analyst reports.

Also I dont know what price you bought in at, and no offence, but 500 shares at $1 -1.50 is a small parcel by anyones standards. Commsec brokerage alone puts you behind 4.5 - 6%! plus inflation and your looking at a 9% return just to break even.

Its fun to play around with a few shares here and there but dont try to pin it on us when the results are not what you expect


----------



## mattryanshares

TabJockey said:


> Mattryan thats a little bit inappropriate, everyone has thier own investment goals and financial advice is not offered on this forum, if you want someone to pick stocks for you, pay for analyst reports.
> 
> Also I dont know what price you bought in at, and no offence, but 500 shares at $1 -1.50 is a small parcel by anyones standards. Commsec brokerage alone puts you behind 4.5 - 6%! plus inflation and your looking at a 9% return just to break even.
> 
> Its fun to play around with a few shares here and there but dont try to pin it on us when the results are not what you expect




Not looking for advice just hoping you guys are right!! 

I accept full responsibility for my actions and LYC better do 9% at least then!!


----------



## TabJockey

Haha alright. All going well I agree with Noika's vague "multiples" price estimate, which would definately cover your 9%


----------



## nioka

TabJockey said:


> Haha alright. All going well I agree with Noika's vague "multiples" price estimate, which would definately cover your 9%




Potential .......   multiples. Not everything will realise their potential. I believe that LYC has the potential but DYOR please.


----------



## TabJockey

nioka said:


> Potential .......   multiples. Not everything will realise their potential. I believe that LYC has the potential but DYOR please.




Right exactly...it just boils down to...how many bags can you carry?

Just Kidding.


----------



## Logique

Nioka and TJ,
thanks for your work on this one. LYC is an analysts darling. 
I've had a quick look at it. Won't it be 12 to 24 months before the earnings potential is realized, and also if the Chinese are 97% or so of the supply side, isn't there a danger of market price and supply manipulation. Also the LYC share price action is all over the place.

Genuine interest here, just playing devils advocate.


----------



## oldblue

Fair points there.

I would expect LYC to seek to avoid this situation by firming up sale contracts for the bulk of the expected output. A few months ago they announced 5 or 6 contracts/letters of intent in the pipeline and since then they have signed a Strategic Alliance Agreement with Japan's Solitz Corporation. 

I don't hold but am becoming increasingly interested!


----------



## nioka

Logique said:


> LYC is an analysts darling.
> I've had a quick look at it. Won't it be 12 to 24 months before the earnings potential is realized, and also if the Chinese are 97% or so of the supply side, isn't there a danger of market price and supply manipulation. Also the LYC share price action is all over the place..




Earnings should start rolling in within the next nine months. I doubt the Chinese producers will be in any postiion to manipulate the supply or the price. They are too busy trying to counter the pollution problems they brought on themselves with cheap uncontrolled production. The use of reare earths is increasing. Users that have had supplies restricted by Chinese quotas will be keen to build up reserves. Lynas has firm orders for most of the production from stages 1 and 2. Thre is no other company anywhere near to a start up as Lynas.

The biggest manipulation is with the SP by funds and traders. Shorters are starting to realise that they have more chance of  losing than making a profit shorting LYC. I see SP price manipulation as we have seen it lately being a thing in the past.

I hold Lynas. DYOR.


----------



## TabJockey

I hope your right about the shorts Noika, a reduction in volatility would certainly encourage more conservative investors to jump in and we would see a smoother upward curve approaching production.


----------



## Logique

Thanks all.

Another thing is there's no attached Lending Value with my broker (yet anyway, but I'm sure that will eventually change), not that that's a primary consideration, just something portfolio investors think about. 

Remaining very interested.


----------



## TabJockey

> (Reuters) - China's monthly exports of rare earth metals more than doubled in November to 2,090 tonnes, bouncing back after falling by more than three-quarters in October, data supplied by China Customs Statistics Information Center (HK) (www.eiahk.com/consult_e.html) showed.
> 
> While the monthly volume remained at the second-lowest level since January, the value of exports continued to skyrocket, topping $121 million for the month.
> 
> That equates to an average export value of $57,903 per tonne on a free on board basis, up from $42,255 in October and a fourfold rise since July, according to Reuters calculations.
> 
> The 17 rare earth elements are used in high-tech electronics, magnets and batteries, with applications in hybrid cars, renewable energy, computer monitors and weapons.
> 
> China controls 97 percent of global supplies of the elements but restricts exports with a quota, causing alarm among buyers in Japan, the United States and the European Union.
> 
> China slashed the export quota by 40 percent this year and plans to trim it further next year. It has already announced increased export taxes on rare earths in 2011.
> 
> Japanese companies complained of restrictions on shipments from late September amid a spat over disputed islands in the East China Sea. Japan's trade minister had said he hoped shipments would resume in the latter part of November, although analysts expected the volume of trade to remain stagnant.
> 
> The November data showed China's total export volume in the first 11 months of this year was 35,075 tonnes. Although that is more than the quota of 30,258 tonnes, it may include some shipments made early in the year and sold under the 2009 quota.
> 
> The value of exports in Jan-Nov has jumped from $232.5 million last year to $630.5 million in 2010, a rise of 171 percent.
> 
> Outside China, rare earths suppliers include Australia's Lynas Corp and Arafura Resources, AS Silmet of Estonia and U.S.-based producer Molycorp Inc.




Hmmmm


----------



## nioka

The following announcement is an important one for Lynas. Malawai has been on the back burner for some time. It is important firstly because it has a concentration plant ready to go and secondly the make up of the product includes some rare earth metals that are undersupplied from LYC's Mt Weld basket of products. The price paid for the Malawai was negotiated at a time where there was less interest than there would be now after the Chinese export restrictions.

Lynas is setting itself up with a great balance of saleable product with Mt Weld, Malawai and its interest in NTU.

\LYNAS CORPORATION\ASX MEDIA ANNOUNCEMENTS\ASX ANNOUNCEMENTS 2010\Malawi Completion Announcement 22 December 2010 

"Lynas Receives Approval from the Government of Malawi to Complete the Acquisition of Rare Earths Resource
Key Points:
• The main conditions precedent of the Purchase Agreement for the acquisition of the fully permitted Kangankunde Rare Earths Resource in Malawi, Africa, have been met. Lynas expects to complete the acquisition of this asset within the next few weeks for the contract sum of US$4 million
• The deposit has an Inferred Resource of 107,000 tonnes of Rare Earths Oxide (REO) at an average grade of 4.24% REO using a 3.5% REO cut-off grade. At a 3% REO cut-off grade the resource increases to 180,000 tonnes REO and remains open at depth
• The deposit also contains strontianite and phosphate minerals which Lynas will actively examine to determine whether they can be economical by-products
• Importantly, the deposit has extremely low natural radiation levels for a Rare Earths deposit, with an average of 11ppm thorium oxide per percentage of REO content
• Completed test work shows the deposit is amenable to a low cost gravity separation concentration process producing a 60% REO concentrate"


----------



## TabJockey

Bounced straight off short term cieling today of ~1.64 and even went into the red. Little fishy on a good news day. More natural buyers coming in as they realise this price level may not last into Q1 11


----------



## Kremmen

TabJockey said:


> With 500m shares out there thats a ball park figure of 30c earnings per share after tax. Makes $1.50 look very low.




Eventually, after a while of earning nothing, they might, possibly, be returning 20%. Yeah, it's good, but it's not fantastic and it's some time off.



Logique said:


> Won't it be 12 to 24 months before the earnings potential is realized, and also if the Chinese are 97% or so of the supply side, isn't there a danger of market price and supply manipulation. Also the LYC share price action is all over the place.




I agree with all this. Also, there will be other suppliers coming along over time and the world's REE requirements, while increasing, are not huge.

My analysis: At 60c, LYC was a great deal. At $1.60, I think there are much better investment options which will pay off sooner.


----------



## nioka

Kremmen said:


> My analysis: At 60c, LYC was a great deal. At $1.60, I think there are much better investment options which will pay off sooner.




I'm all ears. Tell me a few. Although there are a few of us that bought in at a better price and now LYC is already the proverbial 10 bagger that does not mean that there is not room for another spurt that will still do it over again. Rere earths are not a scam. They are becoming an important part of modern living and Lynas has the jump on all new producers at this stage. I'm certainly not going to take profits yet as I believe there is plenty of upside to come.


----------



## TheAbyss

nioka said:


> I'm all ears. Tell me a few. Although there are a few of us that bought in at a better price and now LYC is already the proverbial 10 bagger that does not mean that there is not room for another spurt that will still do it over again. Rere earths are not a scam. They are becoming an important part of modern living and Lynas has the jump on all new producers at this stage. I'm certainly not going to take profits yet as I believe there is plenty of upside to come.





have to say i agree with Nioka on this.

LYC has done very well and i am a happy chappy after locking in profits. Agree that there is more upside here as they have resources to sell and the opportunity to do so in the short term with little to no competition. I will be buying dips and selling peaks along with some free carry shares for a while to come on LYC .

Yes the Chinese have said they will sell to some valued European clients however that is a political decision (isnt everything out of china though?). LYC have already locked in contracts and there will be more to come as they are ready to sell now not just announcing indicated resources that no one will pay for.

Might be better SP runners in the short term however longer term LYC is top 3 for me (AGO and GBG are my others).


----------



## TabJockey

Yes I bought in at 5xc, and ive sold half, so ive already made good money even if it now goes to 0, but I dont intend to realise capital gains on the remaining half of my holding, at least in the next few years.

30c per share earnings may just be "20% after many years of nothing" to you, but in IMHO 30c real earnings will mean a much higher share price, do you honestly think that a company earning 30c will remain under $2? The mine is in Australia not botswana!

The potential upside is in future RE demand, personally I am very happy to have an exposure to resources with many uses that are currently growing very quickly.

Potential downside is China goes gangbusters on RE exports and prices drop. This is not really in thier best interests, I dont feel its likely, and its a risk im comfortable with.

In rare earth's there are other plays, but they are very late to the party and because the others are so far away from production thier SP will probably remain flat over the next year, and if there is some sort of global event they are much more sensitive.

My Analysis: Would I buy in now? perhaps not, very volatile SP and the return over the next year could be slim. Would I sell now? With so much possible upside and the shares I hold being essentially free, there is not a better Australian company to invest in to take advantage of RE price appreciation if it continues.

Every few months I ask myself "Am I in love with this stock?" and run the numbers again using more recent prodictions, estimates and opportunity cost of capital. These numbers still stack up for me.

This is ofcoarce all very personal and DYOR.


----------



## mr. jeff

TabJockey said:


> Yes I bought in at 5xc, and ive sold half, so ive already made good money even if it now goes to 0, but I dont intend to realise capital gains on the remaining half of my holding, at least in the next few years.
> 
> 30c per share earnings may just be "20% after many years of nothing" to you, but in IMHO 30c real earnings will mean a much higher share price, do you honestly think that a company earning 30c will remain under $2? The mine is in Australia not botswana!
> 
> The potential upside is in future RE demand, personally I am very happy to have an exposure to resources with many uses that are currently growing very quickly.
> 
> Potential downside is China goes gangbusters on RE exports and prices drop. This is not really in thier best interests, I dont feel its likely, and its a risk im comfortable with.
> 
> In rare earth's there are other plays, but they are very late to the party and because the others are so far away from production thier SP will probably remain flat over the next year, and if there is some sort of global event they are much more sensitive.
> 
> My Analysis: Would I buy in now? perhaps not, very volatile SP and the return over the next year could be slim. Would I sell now? With so much possible upside and the shares I hold being essentially free, there is not a better Australian company to invest in to take advantage of RE price appreciation if it continues.
> 
> Every few months I ask myself "Am I in love with this stock?" and run the numbers again using more recent prodictions, estimates and opportunity cost of capital. These numbers still stack up for me.
> 
> This is ofcoarce all very personal and DYOR.




TJ I don't know much about LYC but I would say that if you intend to hold them and think that their future is very bright you might as well back them and say that you would buy them otherwise you would sell right? Holding is the same as buying at the current level.


----------



## TabJockey

mr. jeff said:


> TJ I don't know much about LYC but I would say that if you intend to hold them and think that their future is very bright you might as well back them and say that you would buy them otherwise you would sell right? Holding is the same as buying at the current level.




The only reason I would not buy at the current price is because its so damn volatile you may as well buy on the dips.


----------



## Kremmen

nioka said:


> I'm all ears. Tell me a few. Although there are a few of us that bought in at a better price and now LYC is already the proverbial 10 bagger that does not mean that there is not room for another spurt that will still do it over again. Rere earths are not a scam.




OK. I've only bought into or added to two stocks since deciding to sell LYC: AUT & PYM. (PYM has well over doubled since LYC first went over $1.60.)

I'm not saying rare earths are a scam, but, nor do I think there's room for LYC to do that big a spurt again. Given the world requirements, there simply aren't enough buyers out there for it to continue to rise spectacularly. I bought LYC over a year ago as a longer-term proposition, thinking that it would rise gradually over the next couple of years. (If I'd thought would rise so soon, I'd have invested more.) It started to rocket up purely because of the Chinese announcement concerning quotas. I suggest that that removed risk from LYC, guaranteeing they'd be able to sign contracts, which is more a matter of moving forward a re-rating of their value by the market than increasing it in the long term.


----------



## TheAbyss

Kremmen said:


> OK. I've only bought into or added to two stocks since deciding to sell LYC: AUT & PYM. (PYM has well over doubled since LYC first went over $1.60.)
> 
> I'm not saying rare earths are a scam, but, nor do I think there's room for LYC to do that big a spurt again. Given the world requirements, there simply aren't enough buyers out there for it to continue to rise spectacularly. I bought LYC over a year ago as a longer-term proposition, thinking that it would rise gradually over the next couple of years. (If I'd thought would rise so soon, I'd have invested more.) It started to rocket up purely because of the Chinese announcement concerning quotas. I suggest that that removed risk from LYC, guaranteeing they'd be able to sign contracts, which is more a matter of moving forward a re-rating of their value by the market than increasing it in the long term.




While China are exercising their muscle with supply there will be scope for LYC to appreciate in value. Molycorp in the USA went up 10% last monday and then another 10% Tuesday on the strength of Chinese supply concerns so this isnt just aussie trading speculative theory, it is worldwide and there appears to be quite a lot of concern by governments in USA and Japan which is being backed by major corporates who are looking to lock in supply from other producers which puts LYC in a pretty decent space at the moment.. 

The Chinese have 97% of the market and if they are not sharing then LYC have an opportunity to leverage this into a market position and shareholders will make some decent profits. The more contracts LYC can lock in before china opens up supply again strengthens the market position and LYC are here to stay as a producer so fill your boots.  

This is why LYC have purchased the leases in Malawi because the more RE they can firm up the more contracts they can sign now while the sun is shining.

Article below.



http://www.businessspectator.com.au...ycorp-jump-on-Chi-CKL5V?OpenDocument&src=hp11

http://www.theaustralian.com.au/bus...th-export-quotas/story-e6frg90o-1225977704036


----------



## mattryanshares

Good news today with the last announcement share price up 20cents or 13%.


----------



## TabJockey

mattryanshares said:


> Good news today with the last announcement share price up 20cents or 13%.




Gap up, above previous highs because chances are good that the RE price basket will continue to climb into 2011 and hopefully remain high for production in q3


----------



## TabJockey

I certainly hope those who where "interested" in the thread got in before the recent break out.

Personally, this has been one of my best picks, returning 400+% in 6 months and I think im in danger of becoming partial to the stock...

Never the less I sold out on friday at 2.05. The reason I did this is because technically I believe that profits will now be taken and the price should drop 10-20c before resuming its climb and I wanted to make some money rebuying on the dip.

However my fundamental analysis gives me a price target of $4 in 12-15 months with plenty of upside which scares the **** out of me selling out at 2.05.

So I will be watching the open very carefully packing my pants, praying that LYC does not explode into the stratosphere, there is no fundamental reason it cannot go to $2.50 in January.

Greed will get ya every time


----------



## 1nvstor

TabJockey said:


> I certainly hope those who where "interested" in the thread got in before the recent break out.
> 
> Personally, this has been one of my best picks, returning 400+% in 6 months and I think im in danger of becoming partial to the stock...
> 
> Never the less I sold out on friday at 2.05. The reason I did this is because technically I believe that profits will now be taken and the price should drop 10-20c before resuming its climb and I wanted to make some money rebuying on the dip.
> 
> However my fundamental analysis gives me a price target of $4 in 12-15 months with plenty of upside which scares the **** out of me selling out at 2.05.
> 
> So I will be watching the open very carefully packing my pants, praying that LYC does not explode into the stratosphere, there is no fundamental reason it cannot go to $2.50 in January.
> 
> Greed will get ya every time




I'm in the same boat so to speak. Looking to snavel a good buy on a dip around 149. Let's hope.


----------



## TheAbyss

TabJockey said:


> I certainly hope those who where "interested" in the thread got in before the recent break out.
> 
> Personally, this has been one of my best picks, returning 400+% in 6 months and I think im in danger of becoming partial to the stock...
> 
> Never the less I sold out on friday at 2.05. The reason I did this is because technically I believe that profits will now be taken and the price should drop 10-20c before resuming its climb and I wanted to make some money rebuying on the dip.
> 
> However my fundamental analysis gives me a price target of $4 in 12-15 months with plenty of upside which scares the **** out of me selling out at 2.05.
> 
> So I will be watching the open very carefully packing my pants, praying that LYC does not explode into the stratosphere, there is no fundamental reason it cannot go to $2.50 in January.
> 
> Greed will get ya every time




LYC has followed Molycorp lately (up 10% 2 days in a row last week). Moly up 16% last night so with luck LYC will continue the trend.

http://www.businessspectator.com.au...broker-raises-targ-CRLYP?OpenDocument&src=hp8


----------



## TabJockey

Yep, up 23c on the open  .

19 Million buys and 2.4 million sells in the market. What has triggered this frenzy this morning? i guess I just have to wait patiently for a dip, although that dip is likely to be $2 now instead of $1.80 like I hoped.


----------



## 1nvstor

TabJockey said:


> Yep, up 23c on the open  .
> 
> 19 Million buys and 2.4 million sells in the market. What has triggered this frenzy this morning? i guess I just have to wait patiently for a dip, although that dip is likely to be $2 now instead of $1.80 like I hoped.




Yes oh well, NTU up aswell. Im spewing I sold them last week. Something tells me the dip is over.


----------



## Timpoo

TabJockey said:


> Yep, up 23c on the open  .
> 
> 19 Million buys and 2.4 million sells in the market. What has triggered this frenzy this morning? i guess I just have to wait patiently for a dip, although that dip is likely to be $2 now instead of $1.80 like I hoped.




Do you really think it will drop down to $2?  I know some will take profits but not sure if it will go down that much, especially with more and more people becoming interested in holding this stock...


----------



## TabJockey

Timpoo said:


> Do you really think it will drop down to $2?  I know some will take profits but not sure if it will go down that much, especially with more and more people becoming interested in holding this stock...




I think so, the share price has been extremely volatile over the last two years. We will see downside action this week it's just a question of how much, 5c or 20c?


----------



## nioka

TabJockey said:


> I think so, the share price has been extremely volatile over the last two years. We will see downside action this week it's just a question of how much, 5c or 20c?




I wouldn't hold your breath while you wait. Unless there is a big holder dumping I think the demand for LYC will maintain an increasing SP towards the production start up date. I'm certainly not selling yet.


----------



## 1nvstor

nioka said:


> I wouldn't hold your breath while you wait. Unless there is a big holder dumping I think the demand for LYC will maintain an increasing SP towards the production start up date. I'm certainly not selling yet.




Hi Nioka, what's your prediction on NTU? Will that have a small dip ? Or continue to move forward?


----------



## vincent191

TabJockey said:


> I think so, the share price has been extremely volatile over the last two years. We will see downside action this week it's just a question of how much, 5c or 20c?




I wonder how big this bubble is going to get?? Don't get me wrong, I still hold LYC but I have taken profit on 5 occasions now. I could have made much more but I have no regrets. When people are greedy be fearful, when people are fearful be greedy !!!

I have been searching everywhere for the article I read warning of a possible hiccup in LYC's manufacturing process, I regret having thrown that article out. But according to memory and you guys will have to take my word for it, there is still an unanswered question on how LYC intend to dispose of it's radio active waste in Malaysia?

The Malaysian enviromentalists and opposition party politicians are pressing LYC for answers, do not assume that stage 2 is going to be an automatic approval by the Malaysian government. LYC had admitted that it's waste contains radioactive Thorium. DYOR goggle this. 

It is not a matter of "if", it is a matter of "when"  this matter will raise it's ugly head. Why do you think the Americans and Canadians have stopped mining and processing REE? Why do you think LYC had to locate their plant outside of Australia?? Obtaining EPF approval in first world nations to process REE is not easy.


----------



## TabJockey

vincent191 said:


> I wonder how big this bubble is going to get?? Don't get me wrong, I still hold LYC but I have taken profit on 5 occasions now. I could have made much more but I have no regrets. When people are greedy be fearful, when people are fearful be greedy !!!
> 
> I have been searching everywhere for the article I read warning of a possible hiccup in LYC's manufacturing process, I regret having thrown that article out. But according to memory and you guys will have to take my word for it, there is still an unanswered question on how LYC intend to dispose of it's radio active waste in Malaysia?
> 
> The Malaysian enviromentalists and opposition party politicians are pressing LYC for answers, do not assume that stage 2 is going to be an automatic approval by the Malaysian government. LYC had admitted that it's waste contains radioactive Thorium. DYOR goggle this.
> 
> It is not a matter of "if", it is a matter of "when"  this matter will raise it's ugly head. Why do you think the Americans and Canadians have stopped mining and processing REE? Why do you think LYC had to locate their plant outside of Australia?? Obtaining EPF approval in first world nations to process REE is not easy.




Hmmm food for thought there for sure. Personally I have found some other investments that I think are better value (although not as loved). And although I did not pick the top of the LYC market, perhaps I can get in near the bottom with some others.

NAV is trading at 4x current earnings. Its selling 27m of gold a month and its total costs are around 24m a month. A very conservative calculation is 6c EPS. Plus you get the entitlements to the REE spin off basically for free 

I have a few others in development phase that are trading at 3 or 4 projected earnings with production less than a year away. Oh its a fun game we play :

That being said I still think LYC will hit $4 in about a year and that's a pretty good return for most.


----------



## drlog

Here is a wikipedia article on it:
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Rare_earths#Environmental_considerations

This is an interesting read (from Lynas, it is a bit old though):
http://writestreet.wordpress.com/2009/07/31/response-from-lynas/

Also, Thorium doesn't seem too radioactive (with a very long half life of 1.405Ã—10^10 years for Th-232):
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Thorium

On top of that, Lynas claims that the material at Mt Weld is much lower in Th compared to other rare earth deposits. So, I am not too worried about the radioactive argument. However, there are also acids used in production (with nasty tailings I imagine):
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Lanthanum#Production

However, if they bother to do it properly (which they probably will - this is an Australian company, not a Chinese one) it should be fine.

Before I did this quick search, I was concerned but now I am not too worried about it. The public get all scared about radiation when they don't even understand the difference between alpha, beta and gamma radiation.

Note: I know wikipedia isnt the most accurate resource but it tends to be reasonably accurate for factual science articles. Also, I only did up to year 11 chemistry and year 12 physics but I did bother to pay attention, unlike most people


----------



## 1nvstor

TabJockey said:


> Hmmm food for thought there for sure. Personally I have found some other investments that I think are better value (although not as loved). And although I did not pick the top of the LYC market, perhaps I can get in near the bottom with some others.
> 
> NAV is trading at 4x current earnings. Its selling 27m of gold a month and its total costs are around 24m a month. A very conservative calculation is 6c EPS. Plus you get the entitlements to the REE spin off basically for free
> 
> I have a few others in development phase that are trading at 3 or 4 projected earnings with production less than a year away. Oh its a fun game we play :
> 
> That being said I still think LYC will hit $4 in about a year and that's a pretty good return for most.




Hi TabJockey,

What price are you going in on LYC? Do you think it will drop to $2 bucks?


----------



## TabJockey

Its dropped to $2.17 today, thats probably as far as it will drop today.

I have a chart drawn up with a line that shows where I can buy at what time, I doubt LYC will drop to $2 this week, but it might drop to $2.20 in 3 months and that would be a much better buy. I can do allot with that money in 3 months.

Although if it goes to $2 this week im in.


----------



## Logique

From the Navigator Res website. An interesting story. Why post this here on the LYC thread? LYC aren't the only player, as TabJockey sensibly points out. Arafura Res is out there too. 
Disclosure: I hold NAV.

http://www.navigatorresources.com.au/Projects/Cummins-Range-(REE)
Cummins Range RE project – Fast Facts:
JORC Resource: 4.17Mt @ 1.72% REO, 11.0% P2O5 & 187ppm U3O8
*Total Rare Earth Oxide*: 71,700 tonnes
Total Phosphate: 458,700 tonnes
Total Uranium Oxide: 780 tonnes
*Rare Earth Oxide Mix*: 95.6% Light, 4.1% Medium & 0.3% Heavy
Value of Unit REO:	US$9,050 per tonne
Independently assessed value of Cummins Range: A$10-20 million
*Potential to increase resource* with substantial exploration opportunities.

The Cummins Range Rare Earth Project is located 130km southwest of Halls Creek in the East Kimberley region of Western Australia. The Project is on the northern margin of the Great Sandy Desert and comprises one granted Exploration Licence with an area of 48.5km².


----------



## 1nvstor

Logique said:


> From the Navigator Res website. An interesting story. Why post this here on the LYC thread? LYC aren't the only player, as TabJockey sensibly points out. Arafura Res is out there too.
> Disclosure: I hold NAV.
> 
> http://www.navigatorresources.com.au/Projects/Cummins-Range-(REE)
> Cummins Range RE project – Fast Facts:
> JORC Resource: 4.17Mt @ 1.72% REO, 11.0% P2O5 & 187ppm U3O8
> *Total Rare Earth Oxide*: 71,700 tonnes
> Total Phosphate: 458,700 tonnes
> Total Uranium Oxide: 780 tonnes
> *Rare Earth Oxide Mix*: 95.6% Light, 4.1% Medium & 0.3% Heavy
> Value of Unit REO:	US$9,050 per tonne
> Independently assessed value of Cummins Range: A$10-20 million
> *Potential to increase resource* with substantial exploration opportunities.
> 
> The Cummins Range Rare Earth Project is located 130km southwest of Halls Creek in the East Kimberley region of Western Australia. The Project is on the northern margin of the Great Sandy Desert and comprises one granted Exploration Licence with an area of 48.5km².




Hey Logique, Can you repost that link it didn't work..


----------



## drlog

The link didnt work only because the last ")" was not included in the href. So just copy and paste it or click the link then add a ")" to the end of the URL in your browser.

Logique, the main reason I see LYC as the top buy right now is simply because they will be the first in the world (outside China) to ship REE. Sure, there are other large, quality deposits of REE but the price may fall in a few years time (I honestly don't believe the price of REE will fall but I could be wrong).

I Hold.


----------



## 1nvstor

drlog said:


> The link didnt work only because the last ")" was not included in the href. So just copy and paste it or click the link then add a ")" to the end of the URL in your browser.
> 
> Logique, the main reason I see LYC as the top buy right now is simply because they will be the first in the world (outside China) to ship REE. Sure, there are other large, quality deposits of REE but the price may fall in a few years time (I honestly don't believe the price of REE will fall but I could be wrong).
> 
> I Hold.




Hi DrLog, what is a fair entry price in your opinion?


----------



## burglar

Logique said:


> From the Navigator Res website. An interesting story. Why post this here on the LYC thread? LYC aren't the only player, as TabJockey sensibly points out. Arafura Res is out there too. ...




AXE - Archer Exploration is now out there too !

http://www.asx.com.au/asx/statistics/displayAnnouncement.do?display=pdf&idsId=01133723


----------



## Logique

Yep big advantage for Lynas as first mover, no question.

Here is the NAV link again:  http://www.navigatorresources.com.au/   Its the Home page, and has a Projects menu running across the middle, click on Cummins Range Rare Earth.


----------



## drlog

1nvstor said:


> Hi DrLog, what is a fair entry price in your opinion?




I honestly see LYC as a gamble stock (others here may not) simply because they haven't made a profit yet. In my portfolio, this is one of my smallest holdings simply because I see it as "high risk, high return".

I bought in at $1.50, expecting to get a 300% return in 2-3 years so the current price will still give an excellent return should all things go to plan. I think they are currently trading at a discount to future intrinsic value. However, I warn that things could go horribly wrong and I think that is priced into the stock.

If you are looking for short term trading advice, I am by far the wrong person to ask - I generally buy and hold.


----------



## TabJockey

Low of 2.09 today, day traders dream, if only I had the capital!


----------



## Timpoo

TabJockey said:


> Low of 2.09 today, day traders dream, if only I had the capital!




I have the capital but am too greedy  

Just not willing to eat the ridiculous spike yesterday...


----------



## 1nvstor

Timpoo said:


> I have the capital but am too greedy
> 
> Just not willing to eat the ridiculous spike yesterday...





Molycorp, Inc.
(NYSE: MCP )

After Hours: 61.40 Down -0.40 (-0.65%) 11:55

If these guys stay flat again tonight shouldn't it reflect LYC tomorrow?


----------



## BrightGreenGlow

TabJockey said:


> Its dropped to $2.17 today, thats probably as far as it will drop today.
> 
> I have a chart drawn up with a line that shows where I can buy at what time, I doubt LYC will drop to $2 this week, but it might drop to $2.20 in 3 months and that would be a much better buy. I can do allot with that money in 3 months.
> 
> Although if it goes to $2 this week im in.




I see its around the $2.13 now... seems very volatile at the moment guys...


----------



## vincent191

drlog said:


> I honestly see LYC as a gamble stock (others here may not) simply because they haven't made a profit yet. In my portfolio, this is one of my smallest holdings simply because I see it as "high risk, high return".
> 
> I bought in at $1.50, expecting to get a 300% return in 2-3 years so the current price will still give an excellent return should all things go to plan. I think they are currently trading at a discount to future intrinsic value. However, I warn that things could go horribly wrong and I think that is priced into the stock.
> 
> If you are looking for short term trading advice, I am by far the wrong person to ask - I generally buy and hold.





drlog, some people think LYC is a past the post proposition but I see some degree of risk. One person said he is not worried about the radiation risk but I am sure he will have a different opinion if somebody dump tens of thousands of tonnes of radioactive material outside his backdoor!!!

LYC has admitted to the Malaysian authorities that it dies NOT have a solution to the waste problem. Do not under estimate the enviroment actvists, Malaysia is having it's general election this year (2011) and this could well turn out to be a political football. 

LYC's plant is situated in a marginal seat and the opposition party is playing the enviroment card. People have a fear of radiation poisoning whether it is slight or otherwise. We are talking about hundreds of thousands of tonnes over the life of the plant. 

The LYC plant will NEVER be approved on Australian home soil, "take your waste back home", this is the battle cry for the Malaysian activists. But on the other hand, Malaysia is a very corrupt place, you piss in the right pockets and everything is fine.

I still hold LYC but I have also taken some profit. My message is, there is money to be made in LYC and REE but be aware of the risks. I won't put my house on it !!!


----------



## drlog

vincent191 said:


> Malaysia is having it's general election this year (2011) and this could well turn out to be a political football.




vincent191, I agree with what you are saying. This is why I consider LYC to be a "high risk, high return" stock. There are a number of things that could block the processing of material. If nothing blocks that production, it will be blue skies 

However, it is impossible to calculate the probability of something going wrong. The risk is unknown but the reward is great. The only recommendation I have (as you do too vincent191) is not to put all of your eggs in the LYC basket.



vincent191 said:


> I am sure he will have a different opinion if somebody dump tens of thousands of tonnes of radioactive material outside his backdoor!!!



I would be annoyed if someone dumped tens of thousands of tonnes of *anything* at my back door


----------



## mattryanshares

Moving first pays off for rare earths miner 

Back 
Date: 5 January 2011 
Author: Yvonne Ball 
Source: The Australian Financial Review --- Page: 35 
 Nick Curtis, chair of Lynas Corporation, reports that awareness of rare earthshas strengthened greatly in the past 10 years. In the September 2011 quarter,Lynas is set to become the first new rare earths supplier outside Chinese. TheAustralian firm has forged a strategic alliance with Japan's SojitzCorporation. It has benefited from a dispute between China and Japan over rareearths 



 Lynas soars on Beijing's quota cuts 

Back 
Date: 5 January 2011 
Author: Angela Macdonald-Smith 
Source: The Australian Financial Review --- Page: 35 
 Australian-listed rare earths miner Lynas Corporation has benefited from Chineseexport restrictions. News that China will limit the amount of rare earth exportshas boosted Lynas's share price by 42 per cent in four trading days. Theexport restrictions have been viewed as a sign that China is short on rare earthresources. The stock closed at $A2.30 on 4 January 2011. Lynas is currently thetakeover target of two Japanese companies 


Newby here but is it good or bad that LYC is a take over target? it certainly didnt help the stock today??


----------



## Logique

TabJockey said:


> Its dropped to $2.17 today........but it might drop to $2.20 in 3 months and that would be a much better buy. I can do allot with that money in 3 months.



Well thought out TJ, and agreed.


----------



## nioka

mattryanshares said:


> Back
> Date: 5 January 2011
> Author: Angela Macdonald-Smith
> Source: The Australian Financial Review --- Page: 35
> Australian-listed rare earths miner Lynas Corporation has benefited from Chineseexport restrictions. News that China will limit the amount of rare earth exportshas boosted Lynas's share price by 42 per cent in four trading days. Theexport restrictions have been viewed as a sign that China is short on rare earthresources. The stock closed at $A2.30 on 4 January 2011. Lynas is currently thetakeover target of two Japanese companies
> 
> 
> Newby here but is it good or bad that LYC is a take over target? it certainly didnt help the stock today??




LYC can't be taken over by a foreign government. That was tried by a Chinese company and they were refused a 51% holding on National security grounds by the FIRB. So that is out. However a Japenese company Sojitz is enereing an arrangement with Lynas to take a small holding ans arrange up to $250m finance for the implementation of the second stage to increase production to 22,000tonnes annually. They will also agree to market 9000 tonnes annually of product which makes firm sales for most of the increased production. I believe these facts to be more correct than some of the facts published by some "out of contact" news reporters.

Often news from forums is ahead of the financial press!!!!!!!!!!

Yesterdays SP only showed a small stumble for a galloping price.


----------



## burglar

mattryanshares said:


> Newby here but is it good or bad that LYC is a take over target? it certainly didnt help the stock today??




This might help:
http://stockmarketinvesting.com.au/Takeovers.html
http://stockmarketinvesting.com.au/Takeover-Strategies.html
http://stockmarketinvesting.com.au/Takeover-QA.html

Day to day volatility will occur even during takeover. You have to work out the underlying trend and your exit strategy.


----------



## Timpoo

burglar said:


> This might help:
> http://stockmarketinvesting.com.au/Takeovers.html
> http://stockmarketinvesting.com.au/Takeover-Strategies.html
> http://stockmarketinvesting.com.au/Takeover-QA.html
> 
> Day to day volatility will occur even during takeover. You have to work out the underlying trend and your exit strategy.




I'm still trying to work out my entry strategy!!  With positive leads from the US overnight, I'm really scared I've missed the boat on LYC...again, but putting my buy too low...


----------



## nioka

Timpoo said:


> I'm still trying to work out my entry strategy!!  With positive leads from the US overnight, I'm really scared I've missed the boat on LYC...again, but putting my buy too low...




Those that always try to only buy at the very bottom and only sell at the very top will have many disappointments over time. You have to research a stock and buy at a price that you feel comfortable paying, then hold on while ever you feel comfortable holding.


----------



## vincent191

nioka said:


> Those that always try to only buy at the very bottom and only sell at the very top will have many disappointments over time. You have to research a stock and buy at a price that you feel comfortable paying, then hold on while ever you feel comfortable holding.




Couldn't agree more. Those who tell you they can pick the top and the bottom consistently are either liars or are living in lah lah land.


----------



## TabJockey

Timpoo said:


> I'm still trying to work out my entry strategy!!  With positive leads from the US overnight, I'm really scared I've missed the boat on LYC...again, but putting my buy too low...




If you like the company and think that its future cash flows are worth more than 2.20 a share then buy it?

My friend bought LYC at 85c after it had gone up 40% in a month. Back then it looked like he was buying at the top if you looked at the charts but hes made 250% in the 5 months since then.

I reckon LYC will trade at around $4 once its making money, which is in about a year, so discount that price for time and risk and you come up with a figure of what its worth today. If thats above todays price, seems like good value no?

Personally I used a 15% discount factor for time (average market return) and then 15% on top of that for risk. Thats probably a bit on the high side though.

DYOR and run your own numbers! Its fun and helps you sleep at night even if the SP is plummeting


----------



## 1nvstor

TabJockey said:


> If you like the company and think that its future cash flows are worth more than 2.20 a share then buy it?
> 
> My friend bought LYC at 85c after it had gone up 40% in a month. Back then it looked like he was buying at the top if you looked at the charts but hes made 250% in the 5 months since then.
> 
> I reckon LYC will trade at around $4 once its making money, which is in about a year, so discount that price for time and risk and you come up with a figure of what its worth today. If thats above todays price, seems like good value no?
> 
> Personally I used a 15% discount factor for time (average market return) and then 15% on top of that for risk. Thats probably a bit on the high side though.
> 
> DYOR and run your own numbers! Its fun and helps you sleep at night even if the SP is plummeting




Hey Tabjockey,

Is your buy order still in for 2 bucks?


----------



## TabJockey

1nvstor said:


> Hey Tabjockey,
> 
> Is your buy order still in for 2 bucks?




Nah I dont have an order in im just watching what happens when the hype dies down.

Will probably buy in again in 3-6 months if it still looks good.


----------



## 1nvstor

TabJockey said:


> Nah I dont have an order in im just watching what happens when the hype dies down.
> 
> Will probably buy in again in 3-6 months if it still looks good.




Okay, also.. what's your opinion in NTUOA...


----------



## TabJockey

1nvstor said:


> Okay, also.. what's your opinion in NTUOA...




I dunno ask the NTU thread. I remember researching them last week and rejecting them but I cant remember exactly why. The options are in the money and fairly priced arnt they? Just a way to get leverage on the stock.

If you want to ask what a certain person thinks, you can just PM them and that way you dont bloat up the thread


----------



## 1nvstor

TabJockey said:


> I dunno ask the NTU thread. I remember researching them last week and rejecting them but I cant remember exactly why. The options are in the money and fairly priced arnt they? Just a way to get leverage on the stock.
> 
> If you want to ask what a certain person thinks, you can just PM them and that way you dont bloat up the thread




Lynas hold 10% of ntu so it's all relative


----------



## TabJockey

Excellent buying opportunity on the open today, straight in.


----------



## lucifuge

I think Lynas is a great stock to have, but I am waiting for a better buy in, around $1.80.


----------



## 1nvstor

TabJockey said:


> Excellent buying opportunity on the open today, straight in.




Dead set? What did you buy at tab? I am starting to see the pattern of http://au.finance.yahoo.com/q?s=MCP being down and the price of Lynas being down.
Have any of the big boys sold?


----------



## mattryanshares

Yep my tip would be to start buying now as im not going to, im planing on waiting. And i always get it wrong!!!


----------



## lucifuge

1nvstor said:


> Dead set? What did you buy at tab? I am starting to see the pattern of http://au.finance.yahoo.com/q?s=MCP being down and the price of Lynas being down.
> Have any of the big boys sold?




what in the name of all that is holy has MCP got to do with LYC?? different market cap, different sector...
i can find a relationship between peanut sales and cricket scores if you give 30 minutes...don't mean much tho


----------



## exgeo

lucifuge said:


> what in the name of all that is holy has MCP got to do with LYC?? different market cap, different sector...




"Molycorp, the rare earths company" (this from the headline of MCP's website). Seems pretty relevant to me, but what do I know?


----------



## lucifuge

exgeo said:


> "Molycorp, the rare earths company" (this from the headline of MCP's website). Seems pretty relevant to me, but what do I know?




http://www.investsmart.com.au/shares/asx/McPhersons-MCP.asp


----------



## drlog

Settle down!

MCP, listed on the ASX is Mcphersons (not involved with REE)

MCP, listed on the NYSE is Molycorp (solely involved with REE - as fas as I understand)

Molycorp recently reopened their rare earths mine that had been shut a while ago and should be able to start producing REE soon. They are basically the closest equivalent to LYC in the world as far as I understand. I could be wrong?


----------



## Timpoo

I was in today at open too.  Thought it offered great value for a risky stock.


----------



## TabJockey

1nvstor said:


> Dead set? What did you buy at tab? I am starting to see the pattern of http://au.finance.yahoo.com/q?s=MCP being down and the price of Lynas being down.
> Have any of the big boys sold?





1.89 will sell at 2.05


----------



## Boggo

TabJockey said:


> 1.89 will sell at 2.05




Tab, just out of interest, why at 2.05 ?


----------



## Logique

A chart of the last two months daily. The main driver seems to have been more fundamental, with the Chinese recently applying a restriction on their export volumes. But if they can restrict their volumes, they can also increase them too, if they so decide.


----------



## nioka

Logique said:


> A chart of the last two months daily. The main driver seems to have been more fundamental, with the Chinese recently applying a restriction on their export volumes. But if they can restrict their volumes, they can also increase them too, if they so decide.




I doubt that it is as simple as that for China. They had to restrict the production as they were having massive problems with polution as well as illegal production. Proof of that has been shown in many press releases. They have had to move whole towns because of pollution caused by the primitive extraction methods.

Some analysts predict that China will be a nett importer of some of the rare earth metals in the not too distant future.

The fact that they have created alarm by restricting supply to their customers will make users of rare earths cautious of ever again relying solely on China for a supply. Evidence of that is the long term contracts that Lynas has negotiated. So even if china had surplus I doubt that Lynas would lose customers.

Add in that Lynas has the richest deposit in the world found to date and Lynas is even in a better position to guarantee supply that most other producers.

I have had confidence in Lynas from day one. I maintain that confidence and am still buying when these hicups occur. I suspect this is another "Morgan dump" that will be short lived.


----------



## awg

I have attached a link for the USA Dept of Energy "assessment of critical materials report" dated Dec 2010.

It is the most complete and unbiased information I could find on the topic of rare earth. Also covers Lithium

http://www.pi.energy.gov/documents/cms_dec_17_full_web.pdf

It is long at 166 pages, but the relevant chapters have much to absorb

My thinking is that if China makes a decision that they must move toward Electric vehicles, (for the reason they are wise enough to know what will happen to air quality should 1 billion combustion engine cars be added), then that would be a central strategic decision they are able to implement.

It would have a big impact on suppliers of these materials.


----------



## 1nvstor

awg said:


> I have attached a link for the USA Dept of Energy "assessment of critical materials report" dated Dec 2010.
> 
> It is the most complete and unbiased information I could find on the topic of rare earth. Also covers Lithium
> 
> http://www.pi.energy.gov/documents/cms_dec_17_full_web.pdf
> 
> It is long at 166 pages, but the relevant chapters have much to absorb
> 
> My thinking is that if China makes a decision that they must move toward Electric vehicles, (for the reason they are wise enough to know what will happen to air quality should 1 billion combustion engine cars be added), then that would be a central strategic decision they are able to implement.
> 
> It would have a big impact on suppliers of these materials.




Thanks for the 166 pag doc. Reading it now. Missed my trade for LYC market closed. Will wait and see how molycorp tracks tonight and trade on Monday or Tuesday.


----------



## TabJockey

Boggo said:


> Tab, just out of interest, why at 2.05 ?




Its before the stops at 2.07. I just wanted to lock in some quick profits, not actually looking to hold. Dunno why? fundamentally I believe in the company.


----------



## lucifuge

exgeo said:


> "Molycorp, the rare earths company" (this from the headline of MCP's website). Seems pretty relevant to me, but what do I know?




many apologies exgeo. i couldn't for the life of me understand the connection, and this was the result of a valid search, only to give incorrect info. sorry


----------



## 1nvstor

lucifuge said:


> many apologies exgeo. i couldn't for the life of me understand the connection, and this was the result of a valid search, only to give incorrect info. sorry




Molycorp has steadied now. Will be interesting to see if LYC do the same Monday morning. Did anyone buy on Friday?


----------



## TabJockey

1nvstor said:


> Molycorp has steadied now. Will be interesting to see if LYC do the same Monday morning. Did anyone buy on Friday?




Yep, not really sure what next week will bring.


----------



## 1nvstor

Boggo said:


> Tab, just out of interest, why at 2.05 ?




Yes Tab, Elaborate why 2.05?


----------



## TabJockey

Its before the stops I said!

Also a bit of instinct, just where I want to get out.


----------



## TabJockey

TabJockey said:


> Its before the stops I said!
> 
> Also a bit of instinct, just where I want to get out.




Sold out at 2.08 today. Likely to close higher than that, and I expect tomorrow to be a positive day also. But 11% return in 1.5 business days was the goal and im happy to lock that in. Plus I need the capital for other things (I dont have much capital).

Also my last trade with commsec with their filthy high brokerage of $30 each way! Good riddance.

Not sure what you guys are doing but LYC is still a good buy anywhere close to $2.


----------



## 1nvstor

TabJockey said:


> Sold out at 2.08 today. Likely to close higher than that, and I expect tomorrow to be a positive day also. But 11% return in 1.5 business days was the goal and im happy to lock that in. Plus I need the capital for other things (I dont have much capital).
> 
> Also my last trade with commsec with their filthy high brokerage of $30 each way! Good riddance.
> 
> Not sure what you guys are doing but LYC is still a good buy anywhere close to $2.




Tab, I have been following you. Bought at 189 too, I also don't have much capital although have potential to make a sound gain today. Should I sell or hold? Goals are long term. But my instincts say it will visit 190's again, your thoughts nioka?


----------



## 1nvstor

1nvstor said:


> Tab, I have been following you. Bought at 189 too, I also don't have much capital although have potential to make a sound gain today. Should I sell or hold? Goals are long term. But my instincts say it will visit 190's again, your thoughts nioka?




Just quickly wanted to say a big thanks to Nioka, he's been right on the money about LYC and hopefully on the money about the NTU options.

Once again, 

Thank you.


----------



## TabJockey

You can only stick to one plan, short term or long term?

If your analysis is that LYC is undervalued in the long term, then hold it? Thats what my analysis says.

Short term is much more subjective and you really have to know what your doing.

And thanks for the love, Noika's LYC analysis is 2nd to none but it wasnt him you followed in at 1.89 :


----------



## nioka

1nvstor said:


> Tab, I have been following you. Bought at 189 too, I also don't have much capital although have potential to make a sound gain today. Should I sell or hold? Goals are long term. But my instincts say it will visit 190's again, your thoughts nioka?




The SP of LYC is subject to manipulation, there is no doubt in my mind about that. However it has always bounced back and gone on to a higher high. There are a lot of disappointed LYC investors that tried to trade it and ended up giving back the profit on one sale in order to get back in again. I'll admit to selling and having to pay a premium to replace those sold, once. Once bitten twice shy. So now my trades are buy on the downs and only sell when the sale leaves a few freebies behind.

I suggest this trend will continue until start of production, all else being equal.

I do have two plans. Two portfolios. One is investment and seldom traded. The other is for trading where everything is up for grabs.


----------



## Value

Can anyone confirm that LYC market cap is only $70 mill? This is from Yahoo finance.
And average daily shares traded is 40 mill?


----------



## TabJockey

Value said:


> Can anyone confirm that LYC market cap is only $70 mill? This is from Yahoo finance.
> And average daily shares traded is 40 mill?




Nope thats wrong, google finance quotes mcap as 3.46B


----------



## 1nvstor

TabJockey said:


> Nope thats wrong, google finance quotes mcap as 3.46B




Yes Thank You Too TabJockey ^_^


----------



## mattryanshares

I see at close today someone bought 3.2 million and 3.8million shares 25 cents above the close of $1.90.

Is this good bad or neither?
Time            Price  Volume
04:14:27 PM 1.935 3,800,000 7,353,000.00 S1 XT 
04:13:31 PM 1.937 3,200,000 6,198,400.00 S1 XT 
04:10:59 PM 1.910 46 87.86


----------



## mattryanshares

mattryanshares said:


> I see at close today someone bought 3.2 million and 3.8million shares 2.5 cents above the close of $1.90.
> 
> Is this good bad or neither?
> Time            Price  Volume
> 04:14:27 PM 1.935 3,800,000 7,353,000.00 S1 XT
> 04:13:31 PM 1.937 3,200,000 6,198,400.00 S1 XT
> 04:10:59 PM 1.910 46 87.86




Mistake


----------



## mattryanshares

Wonder what the SP will do today after these reports?

http://imagesignal.comsec.com.au/asxdata/20110121/pdf/01143339.pdf

http://imagesignal.comsec.com.au/asxdata/20110121/pdf/01143340.pdf


----------



## drlog

mattryanshares said:


> Wonder what the SP will do today after these reports?
> 
> http://imagesignal.comsec.com.au/asxdata/20110121/pdf/01143339.pdf
> 
> http://imagesignal.comsec.com.au/asxdata/20110121/pdf/01143340.pdf




Not too much 

I had a quick skim and it seems like they are just summarising all of the information in the last 6 months. The only "new" bit of information is that the processing plants haven't had any road blocks but that is all.

Business as usual - cash being burnt.


----------



## nioka

drlog said:


> - cash being burnt.




That is what it is for.If they fun short they would have no trouble getting more from existing loyal shareholders.


----------



## drlog

nioka said:


> That is what it is for.If they fun short they would have no trouble getting more from existing loyal shareholders.




I don't see that as being a problem. They have plenty of cash on hand right now to continue burning it for the next few years. In that time frame, they should start shipping product and generating profits - YAY!

I guess I should rephrase it as "Business as usual - burning cash on budget"


----------



## TheAbyss

drlog said:


> Not too much
> 
> I had a quick skim and it seems like they are just summarising all of the information in the last 6 months. The only "new" bit of information is that the processing plants haven't had any road blocks but that is all.
> 
> Business as usual - cash being burnt.




A harder look may prove advantageous.

They have sold 70% of phase 2 development (22,000 tonnes per annum) so irrespective of what other REO miners bring online, LYC have locked in contracts for what they are able to extract from the ground and will continue to lock in more contracts and identify more resources to increase their market share.

In addition the funding for this is already covered by existing contracts with Sojitz (Sojitz are funding the $250m required to go to phase 2 form phase 1) and other locked in customers so no capital raisings will be happening in the foreseeable future.

They have now locked in the Malawi resource and have now ensured supply from 2 locations to the Malaysian facility so have a some resiliebncy built in to safeguard revenue streams and provide security to high end corporate clients.

They will still be cash positive ($21m) after the entire Malaysian project has been completed and generating revenue. The Malaysian project is currently at 67% completion and will have a further $250m availble from Sojitz in March 2011 for stage 2 works so cash is not a problem..

Add to that the malawi resource allows LYC to build RE baskets to suit different markets ie manufacture of Medical equiopment and magnets in addition to the standard screens, batteries etc.

Both the Mt Weld and Malawi resources are low Thorium content which means they have fewer environmental concerns and they already have the respective Govt permits to mine and process the RE. The other RE contenders are not at this stage and face significant challenges to obtain these.

LYC are so far ahead in the RE race that the rest do not matter. Contracts in place, resource continuing to be expanded, and they will be a producer very soon = Cash in the bank and shareholders pockets.


Great quarterly in my view.


----------



## harbiden

TheAbyss said:


> A harder look may prove advantageous.
> 
> They have sold 70% of phase 2 development (22,000 tonnes per annum) so irrespective of what other REO miners bring online, LYC have locked in contracts for what they are able to extract from the ground and will continue to lock in more contracts and identify more resources to increase their market share.
> 
> In addition the funding for this is already covered by existing contracts with Sojitz (Sojitz are funding the $250m required to go to phase 2 form phase 1) and other locked in customers so no capital raisings will be happening in the foreseeable future.
> 
> They have now locked in the Malawi resource and have now ensured supply from 2 locations to the Malaysian facility so have a some resiliebncy built in to safeguard revenue streams and provide security to high end corporate clients.
> 
> They will still be cash positive ($21m) after the entire Malaysian project has been completed and generating revenue. The Malaysian project is currently at 67% completion and will have a further $250m availble from Sojitz in March 2011 for stage 2 works so cash is not a problem..
> 
> Add to that the malawi resource allows LYC to build RE baskets to suit different markets ie manufacture of Medical equiopment and magnets in addition to the standard screens, batteries etc.
> 
> Both the Mt Weld and Malawi resources are low Thorium content which means they have fewer environmental concerns and they already have the respective Govt permits to mine and process the RE. The other RE contenders are not at this stage and face significant challenges to obtain these.
> 
> LYC are so far ahead in the RE race that the rest do not matter. Contracts in place, resource continuing to be expanded, and they will be a producer very soon = Cash in the bank and shareholders pockets.
> 
> 
> Great quarterly in my view.




Yes the company seems to be heading the right direction, but the Citigroup $1.80 sell target is causing a lot of short sells and bailouts.


----------



## ibows1

The SP is plummeting we need some good news in Feb to drive the price back up....although im down somewhat ill be holding cause the future for lyc is bright this year big things to look forward to and im sure its worth it in the end 

whats this about citigroup?? i didnt hear anything about $1.80 see target?? more info?


----------



## harbiden

ibows1 said:


> The SP is plummeting we need some good news in Feb to drive the price back up....although im down somewhat ill be holding cause the future for lyc is bright this year big things to look forward to and im sure its worth it in the end
> 
> whats this about citigroup?? i didnt hear anything about $1.80 see target?? more info?




They mentioned it in this article breifly.

http://www.businessspectator.com.au...uickens-pd20110128-DHR9X?OpenDocument&src=sph


----------



## harbiden

News from Dow Jones gave an headline saying that Lynas Corp Started at sell, Target 
A$1.80 by Citigroup on 27/01/11


----------



## harbiden

Lynas should do well based on the expectations and the economic growth which is creating demand for the rare earth minerals. Part of the article below gives a short inside to it. 

"In addition to the rising gold price and ascent in platinum, rare earth minerals have surged higher over the past year as economic growth around the world has accelerated.  Along with platinum, rare earths are used in the production of automobiles, specifically hybrid cars.  The minerals are also used in smartphones, such as Apple’s iPhone, other high-tech electronic products, and in wind turbines.  China produces approximately 97% of the global supply of rare earths, and at the World Economic Forum in Davos, Switzerland, European Union Trade Commissioner Karel De Gucht stated that the EU is closely monitoring the market for rare earth minerals.

The rising price of rare earths has fueled substantial gains in the shares of several companies who produce and explore for the minerals.  Molycorp, Inc. (MCP), which controls one of the world’s largest and richest Rare Earth deposits in Mountain Pass, California, has soared 254.9% since its July 29, 2010 IPO.  Lynas Corp., an Australian-based rare earths company, has climbed 271.2% over the past 52 weeks.

With economists predicting further strong growth in emerging markets, the outlook for the gold price, as well as that of platinum and rare earth minerals remains bright.  In China, India, Brazil, and many other nations, the standard of living continues to rise.  This trend is boosting demand for industrial metals and rare earths, and companies including Platinum Group Metals and Molycorp stand to benefit considerably."

Short URL: http://www.goldalert.com/?p=9985


----------



## TheAbyss

The LYC story is not going away and in fact is growing momentum as the most compelling RE play globally until Molycorp come on line next year. By then LYC will have cemented their future.

Pity Curtis sold out for quick dollars to pay personal debt but his salary package is heavily weighted towards shares and options so can understand it.

China now to be an importer as per below artice should see LYC rise on Monday.

http://www.theaustralian.com.au/bus...s-to-import-more/story-e6frg8zx-1226000445597

Article re Curtis selling shares

http://www.theage.com.au/business/lynas-boss-tops-the-table-again-20110204-1agz9.html


----------



## mattryanshares

Nice one Abyss

ive been wondering whats been happening with LYC of late. Im a holder.
This settles the old nerves a bit, on reading the 1st link i wasnt happy about curtis's move of the sell off but the next link clears that up. 
Look forward to mondays open and also Monday 6th Febs 2012 open!


----------



## Boggo

There seems to be someone taking an interest in it.
(I do hold)


----------



## TheAbyss

Table below for all trades greater than $200k in value today and there were another 63 trades today greater than $100k. 4000 less than 100k in value. Good day i thought.

Time	                Price	                 Volume	Value	Condition
2:18:33 PM	1.805	         250000	$451,250.00	XT
2:09:11 PM	1.79	                 250000	$447,500.00	
12:00:41 PM	1.82	                 250000	$455,000.00	
11:57:54 AM	1.82	                 200000	$364,000.00	
11:50:31 AM	1.83	                 188304	$344,596.32	
12:20:31 PM	1.82	                 187868	$341,919.76	
3:23:29 PM	1.8	                 150000	$270,000.00	
10:22:59 AM	1.81	                 145477	$263,313.37	
3:37:29 PM	1.805	         145204	$262,093.22	
1:45:08 PM	1.795	         134362	$241,179.79	
12:01:03 PM	1.825	         128330	$234,202.25	
4:10:25 PM	1.815	         120064	$217,916.16	
10:22:54 AM	1.81	                 120000	$217,200.00	
7:15:15 AM	1.796	         115340	$207,150.64	LT XT


----------



## mattryanshares

Latest LYC investor presentation.

http://imagesignal.comsec.com.au/asxdata/20110209/pdf/01149299.pdf


----------



## Logique

Updated from the chart posted on 7 Jan 11. 
Been following Lynas for a long time, (and ARU Arafura as well). With some encouragement from the TA, and with my broker now offering lending value on the stock, I decided that now was the time to join the share register.


----------



## mattryanshares

If you've been out of touch with Rare earths here is an update on the last year and LYC

http://www.smh.com.au/business/worl...stment-on-supply-concerns-20110215-1au8x.html


----------



## Logique

Thanks MS,
from that link:







> ...$550 million Mount Weld mine, which the company says has the richest grades of ore for rare earth metals in the world...



Also in the latest ASX ann - your link above: Investor Presentn - I like that chart with the circles showing the expected resource volumes, with Mt Weld the biggest circle on the page. First production expected in Sept11 quarter...all good.

The FIRB directive in 2009 to limit foreign ownership to less than 50%, is looking a wise ruling in terms of Lynas' marketplace positioning.


----------



## enigmatic

I was not aware Lynas had a second project in the works which would be completed before ARU.


----------



## mattryanshares

This off hotcopper

China to regulate rare earth industry 

Published 12:23 PM, 16 Feb 2011 




From 
http://www.businessspectator.com.au...f-rare-earth-indu-E52R3?OpenDocument&src=hp10


Reuters 

SHANGHAI - China will soon publish rules to strengthen supervision of the country's rare earth industry in a move that is likely to "drastically" change the landscape of the sector, the official China Securities Journal reported. 

New rules will require Chinese rare earth producers to make better use of natural resources, reduce pollution, control the scale of mining and adopt more advanced mining technologies, said the newspaper, citing unidentified government sources. 

The regulations will also encourage consolidation of China's rare earth industry, it added. 

China's International Business Daily reported on Tuesday that the country was likely to create a rare earth industry association in May to help its miners obtain more pricing power in the global market. 

China, which produces about 97 per cent of the global supply of the metals, cut its export quotas by 35 per cent for the first half of 2011 versus a year earlier, saying it wanted to conserve reserves and protect the environment.


----------



## TheAbyss

mattryanshares said:


> This off hotcopper
> 
> China to regulate rare earth industry
> 
> Published 12:23 PM, 16 Feb 2011
> 
> 
> 
> 
> From
> http://www.businessspectator.com.au...f-rare-earth-indu-E52R3?OpenDocument&src=hp10
> 
> 
> Reuters
> 
> SHANGHAI - China will soon publish rules to strengthen supervision of the country's rare earth industry in a move that is likely to "drastically" change the landscape of the sector, the official China Securities Journal reported.
> 
> New rules will require Chinese rare earth producers to make better use of natural resources, reduce pollution, control the scale of mining and adopt more advanced mining technologies, said the newspaper, citing unidentified government sources.
> 
> The regulations will also encourage consolidation of China's rare earth industry, it added.
> 
> China's International Business Daily reported on Tuesday that the country was likely to create a rare earth industry association in May to help its miners obtain more pricing power in the global market.
> 
> China, which produces about 97 per cent of the global supply of the metals, cut its export quotas by 35 per cent for the first half of 2011 versus a year earlier, saying it wanted to conserve reserves and protect the environment.




Add to that China  tried to buy LYC last year for this very reason. Further proof that China are years ahead of the game. If you see China buying somewhere look around for the opportunity and hold onto it.

Imagine if FIRB allowed that to go through. Kudos to FIRB for denying that as LYC would have been lost to shareholders. 

This underpins LYC as the premier RE play for the next 18 months (when Moly comes online and  a reassessment will be required based on contracts signed by LYC in the interim).


----------



## Logique

Tried unsuccessfully to find out the date of their results announcement - can anybody helps, thanks in advance.


----------



## LiL_JaSoN

seems like good news coming from this stock lately.


----------



## drlog

LiL_JaSoN said:


> seems like good news coming from this stock lately.




Really? Seems like bad weather 

Seriously though, I don't think today's announcement will have that much of a negative effect - it just means that they will start production a week later. I can handle that. Anyone else have any comments?

I still see a bit of risk in this company but the reward will be massive with REE prices having gone up a little recently.


----------



## LiL_JaSoN

drlog said:


> Really? Seems like bad weather
> 
> Seriously though, I don't think today's announcement will have that much of a negative effect - it just means that they will start production a week later. I can handle that. Anyone else have any comments?
> 
> I still see a bit of risk in this company but the reward will be massive with REE prices having gone up a little recently.




lol, i posted that before the announcement re weather was made.

reckon there will be some good news in the next few wks. (hopefully)

i brought in at 1.83, closed at 1.90 today.


----------



## Logique

LiL_JaSoN said:


> lol, i posted that before the announcement re weather was made...reckon there will be some good news in the next few wks. (hopefully)..i brought in at 1.83, closed at 1.90 today.



Yes she bounced back up from 1.81 with some conviction, and I added to my holding also. It had a good afternoon yesterday, in sympathy with ARU which released a strong announcement about expected prices for their Nolans prospect.

It's about the enormous potential of the REE market, both LYC and ARU are well placed.


----------



## 6figures

Lyc bounced back to its 52 week highs yesterday and today, anyone know why?

now trading at $2.200.... I bought in at $1.763.. anyone if they are due for a draw back..?im thinking of selling off around 2.210 and buying back if there is a draw back..

 01/03/2011   8.2%   $1.985   $2.120   $1.980   $2.110   66,433,332 
   28/02/2011   2.4%   $1.945   $2.010   $1.935   $1.950   31,445,577 
   25/02/2011   3.5%   $1.845   $1.905   $1.830   $1.905   31,377,836


----------



## TabJockey

6figures said:


> Lyc bounced back to its 52 week highs yesterday and today, anyone know why?
> 
> now trading at $2.200.... I bought in at $1.763.. anyone if they are due for a draw back..?im thinking of selling off around 2.210 and buying back if there is a draw back..
> 
> 01/03/2011   8.2%   $1.985   $2.120   $1.980   $2.110   66,433,332
> 28/02/2011   2.4%   $1.945   $2.010   $1.935   $1.950   31,445,577
> 25/02/2011   3.5%   $1.845   $1.905   $1.830   $1.905   31,377,836




Its because REE prices are sustaining or even increasing thier high prices and LYC is getting close to production. LYC's SP is typical of a devealoper getting closer to production. If I had to make a guess I would say there is now a pretty solid floor on $2 and you will see a gradual rise to $2.80 or so approaching production with less downside volatility than we have seen in the past.

Its easy to offload your LYC shares when they have doubled ina  few months and they are 12 months away from making a cent, its allot harder to sell out when you are close to owning an oligarch producer of an bullish looking materials basket.


----------



## nioka

For months now LYC's SP has been manipulated by (we know who) to create great volatility. Despite this there has been a steady upward trend. This volatility and this trend will probably continue for some time, especially in view of the approaching start up of the concentration plant which has been delayed by the continuing wet werther. This delay is of no consequence as there is plenty of time to stockpile concentrate before the LAMP is operating. Everything there is "on time and on budget" according to management.

The increasing "basket price" for the Lynas product continues to rise and the probable Lynas profits are rising in proportion. Other intending producers are well behind in the start up stakes leaving LYC in a great marketing position to take advantage of the shortage world wide. They are on selling production, organising stage two and talking further expansion.

Those of us that kept the faith in the bad times are showing great returns and these should continue to grow.


----------



## TheAbyss

nioka said:


> For months now LYC's SP has been manipulated by (we know who) to create great volatility. Despite this there has been a steady upward trend. This volatility and this trend will probably continue for some time, especially in view of the approaching start up of the concentration plant which has been delayed by the continuing wet werther. This delay is of no consequence as there is plenty of time to stockpile concentrate before the LAMP is operating. Everything there is "on time and on budget" according to management.
> 
> The increasing "basket price" for the Lynas product continues to rise and the probable Lynas profits are rising in proportion. Other intending producers are well behind in the start up stakes leaving LYC in a great marketing position to take advantage of the shortage world wide. They are on selling production, organising stage two and talking further expansion.
> 
> Those of us that kept the faith in the bad times are showing great returns and these should continue to grow.




LYC is following a predictable trend. Almost producing and plenty of legs left yet as per the attached which i put together for the hell of it.

I also did same for AGO and it validates the chart however if correct shows AGOP with a lot more upside yet to come.


----------



## 6figures

TheAbyss said:


> LYC is following a predictable trend. Almost producing and plenty of legs left yet as per the attached which i put together for the hell of it.
> 
> I also did same for AGO and it validates the chart however if correct shows AGOP with a lot more upside yet to come.




thanks for the chart thats interesting.. would seem logical to stock up... ??


----------



## nioka

TheAbyss said:


> LYC is following a predictable trend. Almost producing and plenty of legs left yet as per the attached which i put together for the hell of it.
> 
> I also did same for AGO and it validates the chart however if correct shows AGOP with a lot more upside yet to come.




Don't take too much notice of the comparison. The only similarity to the chart is that it shows the GFC effect on Lynas chart as something that should have been expected. It purports to show the effect of rising rare earth prices. Any similarity is purely coincidental. It also shows Lynas as having had the "production" rise that is months away at this stage.


----------



## Logique

Thanks everyone, great contributions. TheAbyss, that chart is a bottler.


----------



## TheAbyss

nioka said:


> Don't take too much notice of the comparison. The only similarity to the chart is that it shows the GFC effect on Lynas chart as something that should have been expected. It purports to show the effect of rising rare earth prices. Any similarity is purely coincidental. It also shows Lynas as having had the "production" rise that is months away at this stage.




Huh? Where does it say rise of any RE prices? The chart does not purport to be anything.

LYC has run a bit early but plenty of upside as LYC is at the production begins point on teh chart as i see it. This is about lifecycle of a miner irrespective of the product mined.


----------



## cranium

nice to see you back online Nioka, I always value your comments and you have helped me make some good decisions! thanks


----------



## Logique

Looked to be a sell the news reaction today, and some technical profit taking.

Completion of the acquisition of the Kankangunde Rare Earths Resource in Malawi seems a fairly routine matter. At 3% REO cut-off grade the resource increases to 180k tonnes, and remains open at depth, with extremely low natural radiation levels, 11ppm thorium. The deposit is amenable to a low cost gravity separation concentration process, producing 60% REO concentrate.

Lynas can now commence development of the project.


----------



## drlog

Logique said:


> Looked to be a sell the news reaction today, and some technical profit taking.
> 
> Completion of the acquisition of the Kankangunde Rare Earths Resource in Malawi seems a fairly routine matter. At 3% REO cut-off grade the resource increases to 180k tonnes, and remains open at depth, with extremely low natural radiation levels, 11ppm thorium. The deposit is amenable to a low cost gravity separation concentration process, producing 60% REO concentrate.
> 
> Lynas can now commence development of the project.




I agree, I don't think the acquisition had much to do with the SP drop today. I imagine they are not going to develop Malawi right away since they haven't started shipping any product to LAMP yet.

In a few years time it should provide some good growth and I think they got it for a good price to boot.


----------



## cranium

Hi, does anyone have any thoughts on the current downwards trend? Buying opportunity, hang tight till market settles, or get out? I am getting spooked and tempted to pull out while I'm ahead, but may be a sign of my newness to the game!


----------



## nioka

cranium said:


> Hi, does anyone have any thoughts on the current downwards trend? Buying opportunity, hang tight till market settles, or get out? I am getting spooked and tempted to pull out while I'm ahead, but may be a sign of my newness to the game!




That downard trend has now changed into an upward one.

LYC is subject the corruptive trading influences. Trading is manipulated by the big end, Remember that around 75% of the shares are in the hands of the top 20 shareholders that continually pla a game of trying to bleed a penny from one another and a couple of pennies from the small investor. These are young guns trying to beat one another and get the rolex and the porche as a badge of their success in business. Ignore their antics. LYC is a long term proposition. DYOR.


----------



## drlog

nioka said:


> That downard trend has now changed into an upward one.
> 
> LYC is subject the corruptive trading influences. Trading is manipulated by the big end, Remember that around 75% of the shares are in the hands of the top 20 shareholders that continually pla a game of trying to bleed a penny from one another and a couple of pennies from the small investor. These are young guns trying to beat one another and get the rolex and the porche as a badge of their success in business. Ignore their antics. LYC is a long term proposition. DYOR.




I thought that was the same with every stock 

I agree, I see LYC as medium risk, very high return over the next few years - holding


----------



## TabJockey

cranium said:


> Hi, does anyone have any thoughts on the current downwards trend? Buying opportunity, hang tight till market settles, or get out? I am getting spooked and tempted to pull out while I'm ahead, but may be a sign of my newness to the game!




There are several significant points that give substance to a bearish attitude dominating markets at the moment.

> Chinese Inflation, its probably closer to 8 or 9% and to get a handle on that they will have to slow economic growth which has HUGE implications.

> Spain downgraded on the news that the Cachas may require 200B EU of capital to bail them out. Its common knowledge that if Spain defaults on its debt the EU cannot afford to bail them out, so that would mean a very very bad time, basically GFC MkII.

> Large profits in resources over last half year, trading types are taking thier money off the table while it is still there, you can see evidence of this in the falling AU.

> Continued uncertainty about national policy like the resources tax and carbon tax.


----------



## nioka

TabJockey said:


> There are several significant points that give substance to a bearish attitude dominating markets at the moment.
> 
> > Chinese Inflation, its probably closer to 8 or 9% and to get a handle on that they will have to slow economic growth which has HUGE implications.
> 
> > Spain downgraded on the news that the Cachas may require 200B EU of capital to bail them out. Its common knowledge that if Spain defaults on its debt the EU cannot afford to bail them out, so that would mean a very very bad time, basically GFC MkII.
> 
> > Large profits in resources over last half year, trading types are taking thier money off the table while it is still there, you can see evidence of this in the falling AU.
> 
> > Continued uncertainty about national policy like the resources tax and carbon tax.




You can look back one year and find the same sort of statements. If you went bearish on AUT one year ago you would have missed quite a lot. Even in the bearist of markets there arestill good stocks to hold.


----------



## cranium

Thanks for the perspectives all, much appreciated, I will sit tight for now


----------



## sinner

Just spotted this in the comments section on ZH:

http://www.zerohedge.com/article/local-notes#comment-1052596


> Japan and elsewhere you have nuclear plants to worry. Well, a nuclear plant will not survive an earthquake, but you actually don't get poisoned until an earthquake takes place.
> 
> Here in Malaysia, we are going to get poisoned daily by the opening of world's biggest rare-earth metal refinery to be built by Lynas of Australia, its opening soon but the locals are protesting and asking why rare-earth rocks dug out in western australia are being refined in thrid world Malayisa? Lynas says it's cheaper to do it in Malaysia even after paying for the transport two-ways, but they don't say that the aussie government would not grant them the environmental permits and that the plant will only hire 200 people. They also sais the posionous by-products would be stored safely (in Malaysia of course) is really much safer than the last one in Perak/Malaysia which poisoned vast stretches of perfectly fertile farmland (now still being rehabilitated by Mitsubish, the operator of the contaminated plant - they even uilt a golf course on fringes but no one would play there, not even japanese).
> 
> You see, those greenies who advocate environmentally safe solar and wind power, they don't tell you that the processing of the rare earth elements needed to make you solar panels and electronic drives for wind turbines will posion people and land wherever they are refined. They are quite happy to let some thrid world countries do the dirty jobs which posion people living around the refineries and farmland on which they depend for their livelihood.




Thoughts from LYC holders appreciated.


----------



## 6figures

i think todays sp speaks for itself... im getting hammered at the moment..

LYC  $1.720 
-$0.170 (-9.0%)
$1.720    $1.730
15 Mar 3:07PM ET


----------



## GumbyLearner

sinner said:


> Just spotted this in the comments section on ZH:
> 
> http://www.zerohedge.com/article/local-notes#comment-1052596
> 
> 
> Thoughts from LYC holders appreciated.


----------



## drlog

So I saw the announcement about FRG leasing a deposit at Mt Weld. Looks like LYC will have a bit more cash coming their way for not much work.

Now, as far as I understand it (please correct me if I am wrong), FRG need to raise $30mil through a share placement and LYC holders will be able to participate in the share purchase plan?

Depending on the price of the placement, this could be very good for LYC holders!


----------



## TheAbyss

sinner said:


> Just spotted this in the comments section on ZH:
> 
> http://www.zerohedge.com/article/local-notes#comment-1052596
> 
> 
> Thoughts from LYC holders appreciated.




That is one point of view, albeit a heavily biased one. 

Yes the malays have some legitimate concrens based on the 1992 catastrophe (mitsubishi) which wa sbasically because the Govt of the time let them run unchecked doing what they please regarding waste product. 

LYC are going to be monitored all the way by the Malasian Govt to ensure the disaster that eventuated in 1992.

See below link for a more open minded perspective. yes there are risks and every measure should be taken to minimise risk.

http://www.deccanherald.com/content/145566/malaysia-gambles-processing-rare-earths.html


----------



## nioka

drlog said:


> So I saw the announcement about FRG leasing a deposit at Mt Weld. Looks like LYC will have a bit more cash coming their way for not much work.
> 
> Now, as far as I understand it (please correct me if I am wrong), FRG need to raise $30mil through a share placement and LYC holders will be able to participate in the share purchase plan?
> 
> Depending on the price of the placement, this could be very good for LYC holders!




This deal has more to it than meets the eye. Firstly Curtis, who is the CEO etc for Lynas, holds a majority shareholding and is the CEO of Forge also. I see a major conflict of interest here and it smells fishy to me. He has many millions to gain from this transaction on a personal basis. 

The Crown deposit should be a second string to Lynas's bow and not a second string to a Curtis fiddle. Lynas should be develloping it themselves. Curtis should be managing its development for Lynas and not for Forge. 

This is very bad for Lynas.


----------



## TheAbyss

nioka said:


> This deal has more to it than meets the eye. Firstly Curtis, who is the CEO etc for Lynas, holds a majority shareholding and is the CEO of Forge also. I see a major conflict of interest here and it smells fishy to me. He has many millions to gain from this transaction on a personal basis.
> 
> The Crown deposit should be a second string to Lynas's bow and not a second string to a Curtis fiddle. Lynas should be develloping it themselves. Curtis should be managing its development for Lynas and not for Forge.
> 
> This is very bad for Lynas.




Interesting Market Update today from LYC. First 2 points were expected however the last 2 are a bonus imo.

1. They have confirmed that 1st ore feed is 31 March so meeting market expectations

2. They have confirmed all licensing conditions met and good to go. 

3. Three new Synthetic Mineral Products; Synthetic Gypsum, Magnesium Rich Gypsum, and Iron Phospho Gypsum. Two of these are building products and the third is for farming enhancement. Quite timely i would think.

4. A new COO has been announced who will take some of the focus off Curtis which could portend to a future direction away form NC and potential safety net if the Forge deal turns into a scrap. Either way its great news as it shows LYC is growing up and they are thinking outside the box. Next step = PRODUCER!

Excerpt below re the new products being produced by the LAMP in Malaysia. 


The LAMP will also produce three Synthetic Mineral Products; Synthetic Gypsum, Magnesium Rich Gypsum, and Iron Phospho Gypsum. Ahead of operations commencing, Lynas is advancing development of commercial applications for all three products and has achieved significant progress in the past 12 months. For Synthetic gypsum, Lynas has entered into commercial discussions with plasterboard and cement manufacturers. *Testwork has been successful for conversion of Magnesium Rich Gypsum into a product called Magnesium Fertiliser Booster. Field trials have demonstrated improved plant yield, improved soil structure, reduced fertiliser consumption and prolonged plant life.* For Iron Phospho Gypsum, testwork has also been successful in converting this into an environmentally stable form suitable for construction applications. Lynas is actively seeking commercial opportunities for long term use of this material.


----------



## cranium

Hi Abyss,
Thanks for your comments. Could you please elaborate a little further on your point 4? I am not sure if I understand what you are getting at  - sorry.

_"4. A new COO has been announced who will take some of the focus off Curtis which could portend to a future direction away form NC and potential safety net if the Forge deal turns into a scrap. Either way its great news as it shows LYC is growing up and they are thinking outside the box. Next step = PRODUCER!"_

Kind Regards -


----------



## cranium

Hi Nioka, 
Thanks for your comments, much valued as always. Do you believe the IBC the announcement discusses as being in place to combat any conflict of interest is of any value, or just lip service?


----------



## cranium

ps - sorry all for not adding any information - just questions! hopefully my knowledge picks up to be more net positive value to the site in due course!


----------



## Logique

Recovery phase in Japan will require rare earths for so many technical products and uses. Lynas in the box seat as a supplier. The $20Mill from the Forge deal doesn't hurt either.

Wouldn't surprise if the 3-month resistance at $2.30 is tested.


----------



## TheAbyss

Logique said:


> Recovery phase in Japan will require rare earths for so many technical products and uses. Lynas in the box seat as a supplier. The $20Mill from the Forge deal doesn't hurt either.
> 
> Wouldn't surprise if the 3-month resistance at $2.30 is tested.




Agree. 

Current RE basket = $120.00. 

LYC Sp should be $2.65 based on $30 a basket
$60 basket = $6.50 
$120.00 basket = $13.00

Once they start feeding the LAMp and we will see some swift movement in the SP.

Matter of time!


----------



## TabJockey

Where are you getting that valuation from?

I came up with a $4 dcf few months ago (assumed $60 basket)


----------



## drlog

TabJockey said:


> Where are you getting that valuation from?
> 
> I came up with a $4 dcf few months ago (assumed $60 basket)




There are many factors to consider here but I think one universal truth is that at the current basket price, the value of the shares will be much greater than the current price.

As I have said before, I think the main thing holding the price back is the "risk"...As TheAbyss said, once LAMP is under production, most of that risk will be gone and the SP should rocket up. That's not happening until September...fingers crossed


----------



## awg

I suspect a big factor that is holding LYC back is that approval to operate the LAMP plant in Malaysia is not yet forthcoming.

There is considerable local objection to radioactive by-products.

I could be wrong on this point, but expect this would be a huge catalyst

Due to the relative complexity of the seperation process, the next catalyst would be to have the plant operational on time. ( I personally doubt it)

I hold


----------



## TheAbyss

TabJockey said:


> Where are you getting that valuation from?
> 
> I came up with a $4 dcf few months ago (assumed $60 basket)




Ben Clarke on Sky Business last night quoted those numbers.


----------



## nioka

awg said:


> I suspect a big factor that is holding LYC back is that approval to operate the LAMP plant in Malaysia is not yet forthcoming.
> 
> There is considerable local objection to radioactive by-products.
> 
> I could be wrong on this point, but expect this would be a huge catalyst




The radio active component is thorium  and in small quantities. This is easily stored but also is becoming an important mineral in its own right. Reproduced from another topic on ASF; 

" Safe nuclear does exist, and China is leading the way with thorium.
A few weeks before the tsunami struck Fukushima’s uranium reactors and shattered public faith in nuclear power, China revealed that it was launching a rival technology to build a safer, cleaner, and ultimately cheaper network of reactors based on thorium. "


----------



## cranium

Hi Nioka,
Would love your thoughts on whether you think the "independent board" that has been appointed to review the upcoming relationship with Forge and Nick Curtis potential conflict of interest is of any value. Is anyone aware of any moves from any shareholder group to get intervention on this?


----------



## frankblack

cranium said:


> Is anyone aware of any moves from any shareholder group to get intervention on this?




Formal organisations have been contacted by members according to posters on HC.

Groups of shareholders (on HC) are looking at direct action/ media/ legal/ ASIC angles.Is worth a look over there to see what is happening.

Cheers


----------



## nioka

cranium said:


> Hi Nioka,
> Would love your thoughts on whether you think the "independent board" that has been appointed to review the upcoming relationship with Forge and Nick Curtis potential conflict of interest is of any value. Is anyone aware of any moves from any shareholder group to get intervention on this?




The matter is being taken up by a group of concerned shareholders. I am in that group. I have sent a submission to ASIC myself showing in some detail the "connections" between certain individuals and companies involved and showing some dubious transactions and personalities. This includes one person that has just avoided charges of insider trading where the person he was involved with got a heavy jail sentence. The more you look into this the shadier it gets. I'm sure ASIC are particularly interested in that individual. Sorry I cant name him.here. There is interesting reading in a recent sentencing report. It can be found on;
http://www.lawlink.nsw.gov.au/scjud...f4b6772e152f1f9dca2577f300150f90?opendocument


If I held Forge shares I would be getting worried that this deal will fall over. If there is any justice for Lynas shareholders it will fall over.

It is hard to post details on a public forum about the groups activities. I am acting independent of the group but share my information with the group as they do with me.

There is not an independent board. It also looks like the "independent" adviser is a company that changed its name a week before the report was issued. It was a company that had /has? links to a very interested party. More fishiness.


----------



## nioka

nioka said:


> The matter is being taken up by a group of concerned shareholders. I am in that group. I have sent a submission to ASIC myself showing in some detail the "connections" between certain individuals and companies involved and showing some dubious transactions and personalities. This includes one person that has just avoided charges of insider trading where the person he was involved with got a heavy jail sentence. The more you look into this the shadier it gets. I'm sure ASIC are particularly interested in that individual. Sorry I cant name him.here. There is interesting reading in a recent sentencing report. It can be found on;
> http://www.lawlink.nsw.gov.au/scjud...f4b6772e152f1f9dca2577f300150f90?opendocument




For some reason the link I posted is reduced and does not work. It should include:
.au/scjudgments/2010nswsc.nsf/00000000000000000000000000000000/f4b6772e152f1f9dca2577f300150f90?opendocument


Or you can try another link from a press report at the time (this will show the following;
Hartman also received additional sentences for six counts of the insider trading offence of ‘tipping’. He passed inside information about the purchase and disposal of shares to his childhood friend Oliver Peter Curtis, 25 whom Hartman had first met when he was about 13. Hartman was however given a 25% reduction to one of his sentences since he agreed to give evidence in future court proceedings against Curtis. In particular, John Hartman was given a discount for co-operating with ASIC from his first interview and he also received another discount for his co-operation in detailing six offences of ‘tipping’, or passing inside information to Oliver Curtis whose charges, the judge admitted, wouldn’t have been discovered without Hartman’s cooperation. Mr Curtis happens to be the son of Nicholas Curtis, the founder of Sino Resources and the executive chairman of rare earths miner Lynas Corp."

http://www.contracts-for-difference.com/news/industry-news/4021-joseph-hartman-insider-trading/
 To work the link should include
difference.com/news/industry-news/4021-joseph-hartman-insider-trading/


----------



## djhenry1981

Just noticed Lynas is in a trading halt until Friday the 1st.... April Fools Day!


----------



## prawn_86

There is an article in this weeks time magazines about Rare Earths, which briefly mentions Lynas. Main article is about Molycorp brinining on a new mine in the US which they hope will supply 20% of the Worlds production


----------



## Logique

djhenry1981 said:


> Just noticed Lynas is in a trading halt until Friday the 1st.... April Fools Day!



Yes interesting. 

'Strategic agreement and capital raising' it says. Sounds like they're raising exploration funding. Everything depends on how the offering is priced. Especially when offerings are to insto's, the price is often set below the current market. 

Or it could be some in-house JV deal with Forge, with less direct impact on the sp.

We'll just have to wait and see.


----------



## TheAbyss

My guess is that it will be 1 of 2 things.

1. The Sojitz deal has been deferred due to Japan disaster so a capital raise is required to offset the funds they had allocated from that which were partly due this month

2. They have forward sold product for funds to advnace/ increase production rates and time lines


----------



## KTrade

Came across this link to-day, as at to-day, I don't own any Lynas share. I do not endorse or take responsibility for material in this hyper-linked site.

http://www.malaysiakini.tv/video/21334/residents-to-lynas-go-back-to-australia.html


----------



## skyQuake

Deal with sojitz gone thru, placement with them $2.12, instos and SPP $2.07
The equity being issued is quiet small, i think only around 1 or 2 days vol. 
Loan facility is a lot larger.
Interesting to see where it goes with the other rare earths having a great day today


----------



## nioka

KTrade said:


> Came across this link to-day, as at to-day, I don't own any Lynas share. I do not endorse or take responsibility for material in this hyper-linked site.
> 
> http://www.malaysiakini.tv/video/21334/residents-to-lynas-go-back-to-australia.html




Your loss. Keep watching to see just how much.


----------



## 6figures

strong start for lynas this morning.. out the gates with 4.6% gains.. hitting a high of sp $3.30.. 

plenty of buyers compared to sellers..


----------



## Logique

But don't forget the three parcels of allocations coming, at

- the placement to the Japan company at 2.12
- an additional insto placement at 2.07
- a SPP at 2.07, or less if the sp goes lower in the interim


----------



## VSntchr

Hmm, lynas what do I make of this stock?
I admit that I bought in at $0.66 and sold out at $1.04 (DAMN!!!!).
The reason I bought in was because of the outrageous potential upside of this company, the longterm demand and supply equation (from what is known) appears to be very favourable for lynas. 

I sold out as I became aware of the potential conflicts that are now becoming even more apparent with the processing facility in Malaysia. What happens if Malaysia does a backflip and gets rid of Lynas? Dont think its impossible - it could happen! Australia won't let them process here...plus I had a tidy profit that at the time seemed attractive to take.

Prior to the capital raising I had lynas trading on around what I percieved it to be worth...however I do not think it deserved to trade at this level due to the many inherent risks involved in its operations. Maybe some investors are tunnel visioned on the positive side of the Lynas future, or maybe I am over estimating the risks involved...

Either way I am watching with interest!


----------



## TheAbyss

Interesting. You dont think the Japanese govt and Sojitz had those fears? They undertook due diligence and spoke with Malaysian govt officals before they weighed in with a Qtr of a billion dollars investment i would have thought? they must have satisfied themselves sufficiently to finalise their investment.

Near end of April you might have an opportunity to buy back in closer to the $2.07 price which i suspect (hope) that is the last opportunity before LYC is re assessed as a producer not an explorer.


----------



## nioka

VSntchr said:


> maybe I am over estimating the risks involved.




The simple answer is Yes you are. The proof is in the recent deal that includes new Japenese money and lots of it along with firm orders for product. I assume they ran a very close scrutiny over all aspects of the deal.

Most of the new money comes as a loan. The new issue of shares represents a very small pary of the overall capital. Smaller in number than the occasional one day trading . Bear in mind that it will allow production to double.

A bigger problem for LYC is that its chairman has arranged the sale of the crown deposit which was previously valued at $1billion+ at a mates rates price of around $20M to a company in which he will have a majority shareholding.


----------



## VSntchr

TheAbyss said:


> Interesting. You dont think the Japanese govt and Sojitz had those fears? They undertook due diligence and spoke with Malaysian govt officals before they weighed in with a Qtr of a billion dollars investment i would have thought? they must have satisfied themselves sufficiently to finalise their investment.
> 
> Near end of April you might have an opportunity to buy back in closer to the $2.07 price which i suspect (hope) that is the last opportunity before LYC is re assessed as a producer not an explorer.




Im happy to conduct my own analysis of the risks, rather than trust anyone else to do so. What about all the so called 'smart money' that went into the likes of Backcock and Brown, ABC learning etc..I know these are completely different examples..but it does illustrate my point.

And according to my valuation...Lynas is already being valued as a producer rather than an explorer..which is perhaps the reasoning behind our different views on this one...


----------



## awg

It might be of benefit to myself and other holders to acquiant selves with the political situation is in Malayasia atm.

By that, from my limited investigation so far, it appears the agitation in Malaysia re the LAMP plant, is most likely driven by their internal domestic politics.

So it depends on whether that is likelly to have an impact, based on their own electoral cycle, and connections...( do they have political donations in Malaysia)

Sovereign risk is a pita, dont think for a moment Greens in Oz wouldnt kibosh plenty of Resource developments if they had more power.

UCG/CSG, Uranium come to mind.

I have holdings in KGL, PRU, both delayed by political situations, repressing the SP

I think most know a politician would sell-out anyone to get themselves elected


----------



## TheAbyss

VSntchr said:


> Im happy to conduct my own analysis of the risks, rather than trust anyone else to do so. What about all the so called 'smart money' that went into the likes of Backcock and Brown, ABC learning etc..I know these are completely different examples..but it does illustrate my point.
> 
> And according to my valuation...Lynas is already being valued as a producer rather than an explorer..which is perhaps the reasoning behind our different views on this one...




Fine, if you can do a better job of investigating the Malaysian situation than the japanese etc go for it.

Regarding your comment that LYC is being valued as a producer, rubbish. Look at the RE basket price ($150.00 today where as at $60 LYC Sp would be $6.50) ) and do your sums again. PE multiple of around 1 if you use that.

It takes 2 to make a market and whether you are in or out is your choice so best of luck either way.

Having said that i sold 40% today and will buy back when SP is closer to $2.10 than $2.30


----------



## VSntchr

Never said I could do a better job. Can never fully know the ins and outs of these deals tho..so the point I meant was that I like to have my own opinion rather than relying solely on others actions.


----------



## GumbyLearner

nioka said:


> The simple answer is Yes you are. The proof is in the recent deal that includes new Japenese money and lots of it along with firm orders for product. I assume they ran a very close scrutiny over all aspects of the deal.
> 
> Most of the new money comes as a loan. The new issue of shares represents a very small pary of the overall capital. Smaller in number than the occasional one day trading . Bear in mind that it will allow production to double.
> 
> A bigger problem for LYC is that its chairman has arranged the sale of the crown deposit which was previously valued at $1billion+ at a mates rates price of around $20M to a company in which he will have a majority shareholding.




How much would LYC have to spend on pre-feasibility study, feasibility, set-up costs, infrastructure etc.. to get Crown up and running?


----------



## nioka

GumbyLearner said:


> How much would LYC have to spend on pre-feasibility study, feasibility, set-up costs, infrastructure etc.. to get Crown up and running?




Probably less than Forge, Lynas has the capacity on the sit as of now and will not be working full time at Mt Weld to supply the Malaysian plant with concentrate.. If the CEO of Lynas (and Forge) thinks it is a good proposition for Forge to do it then he would know. Therefore he would also know it would be a better proposition for LYC to do it as well. It would be easier for LYC to finance the development than it would be for a shell company with dubious reputation. Unless of course there are already plans at foot to sell it off to Chinese mates.


----------



## nioka

Great article in the AFR today regarding the sale of Crown to Forge. Once major shareholders join the fight to stop this rot then I think its time that LYC called off the deal. The article shows the conflict of interest that is involved on both sides LYC and FGR. Curtis is now shown in public what some of us have known for some time as having an enormous conflict of interest. It shows up the involvement of his son and the involvement of Wang as being a director of FGR and also a director along with Curtis of the Company touted as an independent advisor to LYC on the deal.

I think the sale of Crown is history and a win for those of us that have taken positive action to prevent it happening in its present form.


----------



## LiL_JaSoN

booooya!.. 

new sp of 2.40.


----------



## TabJockey

LiL_JaSoN said:


> booooya!..
> 
> new sp of 2.40.




Booya...! eek: must sell soon)


----------



## TheAbyss

Not today my friend. MCP up 12% last night. LYC is heading north


----------



## TabJockey

TheAbyss said:


> Not today my friend. MCP up 12% last night. LYC is heading north




I mean at the end of this technical run. At $~2.60


----------



## prawn_86

Just a friendly reminder to participants on this thread that price commentary or low content posts will be removed in the future if we feel they do not add any value to the thread.

The more details the better and the more discussion it creates.

Thanks


----------



## 6figures

LYC  $2.500 
$0.100 (4.2%)
$2.490    $2.500
5 Apr 10:06AM ET


great open.. indeed Lyc is headed north.. time to review and reassess..


----------



## 6figures

6figures said:


> LYC  $2.500
> $0.100 (4.2%)
> $2.490    $2.500
> 5 Apr 10:06AM ET
> 
> 
> great open.. indeed Lyc is headed north.. time to review and reassess..




1159 buyers for 13,939,710 shares 

195 sellers with 3,331,349 shares 

looking to bailout around 2.60... re-enter at a lower price..


----------



## skyQuake

Mkt depth means little; 

MCP (LYC's US bigger cousin) had a huge night, so that helped it pop.
fwiw the rejection of highs dont look so good


----------



## nioka

skyQuake said:


> Mkt depth means little;
> 
> MCP (LYC's US bigger cousin) had a huge night, so that helped it pop.
> fwiw the rejection of highs dont look so good




I certainly dont consider MCP as "bigger cousin". Lynas will produce more than molycorp over the next 5 years with less problems. Molycorp did get a boost from its European purchase but it may not live up to the hype that surrounds its American project. I'd suggest it has more hurdles to overcome before it gets into full production there.


----------



## PinguPingu

If I've sold my shares after the record date (29th March I believe) for the SPP (I did around this last high of 2.60 ) but I'm looking to rebuy, can I still partake in this offering?


----------



## nioka

PinguPingu said:


> If I've sold my shares after the record date (29th March I believe) for the SPP (I did around this last high of 2.60 ) but I'm looking to rebuy, can I still partake in this offering?




You should be able to participate. You should get an offer in the mail next week.


----------



## PinguPingu

Awesome, thanks for the quick reply, Nioka.


----------



## TheAbyss

Not sure why you sold any shares in LYC though unless you needed the cash. Very tempting to sell too early on winners. Lock in some profits and buy on dips is good also of course.

LYC just runs hard then fills gaps regularly so an enjoyable stock atm


----------



## PinguPingu

TheAbyss said:


> Lock in some profits and buy on dips is good also of course.




Yeah, that was what I was attempting to do. Bought in at 1.93, sold at 2.60, but now looking to buy back in via SPP (which I believe is lower of is 2.07 or 2.5% discount of price in pricing peroid). Not really a _dip_ per se, but a brokerage free way to get what I believe will be a good price in again.


----------



## TheAbyss

PinguPingu said:


> Yeah, that was what I was attempting to do. Bought in at 1.93, sold at 2.60, but now looking to buy back in via SPP (which I believe is lower of is 2.07 or 2.5% discount of price in pricing peroid). Not really a _dip_ per se, but a brokerage free way to get what I believe will be a good price in again.




problem with that theory is getting full $5k allocation which we wont


----------



## PinguPingu

Yeah, I should have guessed that it's likely to be over subscribed.... however I inititially only had 3k worth of shares to begin with, so I'd still be quite happy with 60% of the allocation. Any estimates on probable scale back?


----------



## Logique

nioka said:


> You should be able to participate. You should get an offer in the mail next week.



Mine came in the mail today.


----------



## fmoraes

Logique said:


> Mine came in the mail today.




Is this only valid for Australians or would I be able to participate here in the US?


----------



## GumbyLearner

fmoraes said:


> Is this only valid for Australians or would I be able to participate here in the US?




No you won't be able to according to clause 12.3 (a) of the offer.

"The SPP shares may not be taken up by persons in the United States or by persons acting on behalf of the benefit of a person in the United States."

There is always Molycorp within the US. FWIW


----------



## Logique

Correct as Gumby says. 

'The SPP Shares have not been and will not be registered under the US Securities Act or the securities laws of any state or other jurisdiction of the United States'


----------



## nioka

There is plenty of work underway at the moment to try and stop the deal to sell the Crown lease to FRG at mates rates. The apparent conflict of interest and the enormous benefit that the CEO of Lynas has in gettin the deal through is causing concern. A vote no to the deal is being organised by many shareholders. Anyone not happy with the deal should forward their proxy no vote to the Australian Shareholders Association.
Contact details;
share@asa.asn.au
ph 1300368448
fax 0294116663
Level 7 North Tower
1-5 Railway St
Chatswood NSW 2067.

Act as soon as you receive your meeting notice and proxy form unless you can attend the meeting in person.

This mates rates deal MUST be stopped or a resource previously touted by Lynas as worth $1 billion+ will be sold to Forge for a little over $20M and our CEO who is also the CEO of Forge will receive a bonus of Forge shares (just for introducing the deal) that will make him the majority shareholder in FRG.

Everyones vote will be important.

Hopefully ASIC will put a stop to this deal going ahead as I know it is being investigated but you cant count on that happening in time to stop the rot.


----------



## nioka

News that Alkane are negotiating with Lynas for processing their Rare earths.

From http://news.reportlinker.com/n09384382/Lynas-and-Alkane-work-on-supply-deals.html#ixzz1JBxPtIzc


"Western Australian mining company Lynas Corporation is conducting negotiations with Alkane Resources about a possible deal involving the supply of heavy rare earths. The talks could lead to Lynas processing heavy rare earths concentrates produced by Alkane at its Zirconia project in Dubbo, New South Wales. Alkane MD Ian Chalmers said Alkane is also conducting talks with other potential partners, including US-based Molycorp Minerals and Japanese and European companies"


----------



## clowboy

Can someone please clarify, it has the 29th of april as the pricing period but I am assuming that this means from opening date to the 29th and not just the 29th.

cheers


----------



## Logique

Good question. It reads to me as on the day 29th April. Enquiries line is Registries Ltd on 1300 737 760.

I'm not too worried about it, since the Issue Price is the lower of $2.07 and the average price in the Pricing Period less 2.5%. That is, it will very probably be $2.07 regardless, given the shares are at about $2.60 now, if under a little pressure on a down market day.


----------



## dazdingo

Hey, i got my pack in the mail today to vote 'FOR' or 'AGAINST' the Forge deal. What's going to be the best scenario for me as a shareholder to vote?


----------



## nioka

dazdingo said:


> Hey, i got my pack in the mail today to vote 'FOR' or 'AGAINST' the Forge deal. What's going to be the best scenario for me as a shareholder to vote?




You can contact the Australian Shareholders ASSN and ask them to accept your proxy. It is important that we get as many small shareholders as possible to vote no. This deal will be hard to stop unless ASIC see fit to intervene. There is good cause for them to do this because of the obvious conflict of interest in Curtis putting this deal forward. The deal is at mates rates with the price of a little over $20M for a resourse that was previously touted as being worth more than a billion dollars. Curtis is also getting around the 20 million from forge in shares just for introducing/finding the project.

You can also get advice or help by contacting the operators of a web site assisting "no votes" at lynascorpnovote@gmail.com

I urge everyone to vote no as this deal stinks and must not go ahead.


----------



## GumbyLearner

nioka said:


> Probably less than Forge, Lynas has the capacity on the sit as of now and will not be working full time at Mt Weld to supply the Malaysian plant with concentrate.. If the CEO of Lynas (and Forge) thinks it is a good proposition for Forge to do it then he would know. Therefore he would also know it would be a better proposition for LYC to do it as well. It would be easier for LYC to finance the development than it would be for a shell company with dubious reputation. Unless of course there are already plans at foot to sell it off to Chinese mates.




I appreciate your input nioka. It really is amazing that the company is attempting to sell Crown for such a price. I wonder if NCM would consider selling their O'Ã‡allaghans tungsten deposit next door to Telfer for 2% of it's JORC.


----------



## PinguPingu

If using the ASSN as a proxy, would you just need to write them in on your voting form or is there more you would need to do?


----------



## Logique

nioka said:


> There is plenty of work underway at the moment to try and stop the deal to sell the Crown lease to FRG at mates rates..



Sorry but I'm not completely convinced it's as bad as you say. Sure (just the) cash component at $20Mill seems small, but if so, why aren't competing bids coming in? 

This is a non-core asset, containing non-core materials, in tantalum, niobium and phosphates, which Lynas isn't targeting, and even if it was, they say would cost $1Billion to develop. How Forge, on the back of a $30Mill capital raising, are going to manage it -who knows. 

But, in the absence of a better offer for the Crown polymetallic deposit and Swan phosphate deposit, there is no opportunity cost to Lynas here.

Read the independent experts report by Grant Samuel before jumping to conclusions. There are safeguards, such as the rights to independently prospect; retained rights to the REEs; downstream royalties; rare earth feedstock supply for the Malaysian LAMP; also the right to cancel if Forge don't proceed within 5 years.

Would this deal have happened without the links to Forge of LYC Directors Nicholas Curtis and Jacob Klein? Probably not. Will Mr Curtis benefit personally? Yes in a big way. Does this make it a bad deal for Lynas? Can't see it in the near to medium term, the whole thing has been negotiated at arms length.

It's all a bit tawdry, yes, and a flea speck in Lynas' overall budget, but that's not necessarily a reason to oppose it.


----------



## nioka

Logique said:


> Sorry but I'm not completely convinced it's as bad as you say. Sure (just the) cash component at $20Mill seems small, but if so, why aren't competing bids coming in?
> 
> This is a non-core asset, containing non-core materials, in tantalum, niobium and phosphates, which Lynas isn't targeting, and even if it was, they say would cost $1Billion to develop. How Forge, on the back of a $30Mill capital raising, are going to manage it -who knows.
> 
> But, in the absence of a better offer for the Crown polymetallic deposit and Swan phosphate deposit, there is no opportunity cost to Lynas here.
> 
> Read the independent experts report by Grant Samuel before jumping to conclusions. There are safeguards, such as the rights to independently prospect; retained rights to the REEs; downstream royalties; rare earth feedstock supply for the Malaysian LAMP; also the right to cancel if Forge don't proceed within 5 years.
> 
> Would this deal have happened without the links to Forge of LYC Directors Nicholas Curtis and Jacob Klein? Probably not. Will Mr Curtis benefit personally? Yes in a big way. Does this make it a bad deal for Lynas? Can't see it in the near to medium term, the whole thing has been negotiated at arms length.
> 
> It's all a bit tawdry, yes, and a flea speck in Lynas' overall budget, but that's not necessarily a reason to oppose it.




Firstly there are no other bids talked about because the company has never pit the lease on the market. However there is at least one other bid that I know about that would be much better than the one being decided now. The company don't want to recognise it.

Secondly it is NOT a non core asset it has high levels of heavy rare earths that Lynas needs and will be buying back from Forge at "market prices".

The rare earths value on estimates at the quantities previously stated as available and at todays prices are valued at $78 billion dollars according to figures I have seen today. The tantalum is valued at $4.525 billion and the Niobium at $50.423 billion Then there is titanium, zirconium and phosphate. This is for the Crown deposit alone and then there is the Swan deposit for which I have no figures.

All that for a measley $20 million. No wonder Curtis will get bonus shares to the value of over $20 million for "bringing a commercial resource" to Forge.

That IS something to be worried about. This is our CEO feathering his own nest at the expense of Lynas shareholders. Vote NO it is important for anyone who has any financial interest in Lynas.


----------



## TheAbyss

nioka said:


> Firstly there are no other bids talked about because the company has never pit the lease on the market. However there is at least one other bid that I know about that would be much better than the one being decided now. The company don't want to recognise it.
> 
> Secondly it is NOT a non core asset it has high levels of heavy rare earths that Lynas needs and will be buying back from Forge at "market prices".
> 
> The rare earths value on estimates at the quantities previously stated as available and at todays prices are valued at $78 billion dollars according to figures I have seen today. The tantalum is valued at $4.525 billion and the Niobium at $50.423 billion Then there is titanium, zirconium and phosphate. This is for the Crown deposit alone and then there is the Swan deposit for which I have no figures.
> 
> All that for a measley $20 million. No wonder Curtis will get bonus shares to the value of over $20 million for "bringing a commercial resource" to Forge.
> 
> That IS something to be worried about. This is our CEO feathering his own nest at the expense of Lynas shareholders. Vote NO it is important for anyone who has any financial interest in Lynas.




Appreciate your passion Nioka and am a holder looking at 2 packs received yesterday re a vote.

My question is why did we think it fair to pay $4m for the Kangankunde deposit which will have significant devlopment costs i would imagine? We are getting 5 times this amount for Crown/ Swan yet the resource is not 5 times as much as i understand it though the complexities around 17 items to a basket all with different values skews it for me.

Also i am intrigued how we can be talking about figures of $4m and $20m yet in the same paragraph a potential resource value in the billions of dollars. Must be a lot of risk/ cost in converting an in situ resource into a deliverable product?

Just questions and probably vote no on the strength of the where theres smoke there is fire principal.


*Key points below re Kangankunde.*

Key Points:
• The main conditions precedent of the Purchase Agreement for the acquisition of the fully permitted Kangankunde Rare Earths Resource in Malawi, Africa, have been met. Lynas expects to complete the acquisition of this asset within the next few weeks for the contract sum of US$4 million
• The deposit has an Inferred Resource of 107,000 tonnes of Rare Earths Oxide (REO) at an average grade of 4.24% REO using a 3.5% REO cut-off grade. At a 3% REO cut-off grade the resource increases to 180,000 tonnes REO and remains open at depth
• The deposit also contains strontianite and phosphate minerals which Lynas will actively examine to determine whether they can be economical by-products
• Importantly, the deposit has extremely low natural radiation levels for a Rare Earths deposit, with an average of 11ppm thorium oxide per percentage of REO content
• Completed test work shows the deposit is amenable to a low cost gravity separation concentration process producing a 60% REO concentrate


----------



## Logique

Kangankunde provides a hint as to why Lynas themselves say that the Crown deposit is non-core business, they are looking at their business as a whole.

I'd take holders to page 7 of the Notice of Extraordinary Meeting on 18th May, 3.4 Deposits in the Sublease Area, which says (my highlights):  

"..The Sublease Deposits do not form part of Lynas' Rare Earth resource inventory. As the objective of Lynas is to create a reliable, fully integrated source of Rare Earth from mine to market, *Lynas regards the Sublease Deposits as non-core assets* because they do not fit within Lynas' strategic vision or strategy. It is *therefore unlikely that the funds and other resources* that would be required for Lynas to develop the Sublease Deposits will be allocated for that purpose and accordingly, the Independent Board Committee believes that, *in the absence of the transaction, it is unlikely that any shareholder value will be realized directly from the Sublease Depoits in the medium term*.."

Don't get me wrong, if another bidder materializes before 18th May, or if a better offer comes from Forge, I'd be pretty happy with that.


----------



## TheAbyss

Interesting article on this subject here: http://www.theaustralian.com.au/bus...lict-of-interest/story-e6frg8zx-1226038738532

A no for now is a must on this basis imo


----------



## nioka

Logique said:


> "..The Sublease Deposits do not form part of Lynas' Rare Earth resource inventory. As the objective of Lynas is to create a reliable, fully integrated source of Rare Earth from mine to market, *Lynas regards the Sublease Deposits as non-core assets* because they do not fit within Lynas' strategic vision or strategy. It is *therefore unlikely that the funds and other resources* that would be required for Lynas to develop the Sublease Deposits will be allocated for that purpose and accordingly, the Independent Board Committee believes that, *in the absence of the transaction, it is unlikely that any shareholder value will be realized directly from the Sublease Depoits in the medium term*.."
> .




Just remember that the "independent" adviser was a renamed Sino Resources, renamed only one week before the report. Google Sino resources and see what you come up with. If you research all the information about this it will surprise you the associations that are involved in this deal. There is more here than meets the eye at first glance. There is a story here that could well end up a movie that will rival Underbelly.


----------



## nioka

TheAbyss said:


> Interesting article on this subject here: http://www.theaustralian.com.au/bus...lict-of-interest/story-e6frg8zx-1226038738532
> 
> A no for now is a must on this basis imo




I can assure you that the Australian only has half the story. The second half is more revealing. ;


----------



## Logique

He he. This is going to get interesting 

Oh well, my $5k for the SPP has been sent through the copper wires, so it's sit back and watch the sparks fly I guess.

And I'll return a NO vote, since you guys insist it's for the best.


----------



## GumbyLearner

TheAbyss said:


> Interesting article on this subject here: http://www.theaustralian.com.au/bus...lict-of-interest/story-e6frg8zx-1226038738532
> 
> A no for now is a must on this basis imo




Thanks for the link Abyss. 

*It goes on to say that the only way this proposal could be challenged and a value determined is if an open sale process was conducted. However, such a sale process has not been proposed by Lynas. So what is this transaction really about, if one doesn't know if there is anything in the ground and no one seems to know anything?*

So what is the real value of the ground being sold to Forge? 

Why would the Lynas board say it's non-core if they haven't forwarded any info to shareholders and a JORC has not been determined as yet? 

Is it simply non-core because of the nature of the asset niobium, phosphates etc.. or does it contain material of a different or unrelated nature to that of Mount Weld?

Would it's development cost a bucketload?

Maybe the board of Lynas don't view it as a core asset, whereas Mr Curtis (as a common director of both companies) obviously wants Forge to be the first and only cab off the rank to pick it up for $20M.  I wonder why there is such interest in a non-core holding. :crap: I always thought bona fide meant at arm's length.

No wonder a lot of Lynas holders feel like they're being treated like mushrooms. Fed on poop and kept in the dark. 

It will be interesting to see how this pans out.

Looks like there could be a bit of Cat's paw going on here. 

This isn't financial advice
DYOR
GL


----------



## Logique

OK the ASA now has my proxy. 

Annexure A, Independent Expert's Report, page 7, footnote 5: 

"Dr Zygmunt Switkowski is also an independent director, but was not a member of the independent Board committee"


----------



## nioka

If you want to know more about the Crown deposit and its value then read the 2005 annual report, signed off and delivered by Curtis (available on the Lynas web site)where it states that the deposit has a value of over $50billion. repeated again in 2007 and called "our next project". If you want to check out the "independent" advisor on the deal just google "Riverstone Advisory" and you will also come up with "Sino Resources". Then check the person relationships between Lynas, Forge and Riverstone/Sino. Interesting reading.

Watch the "Australian" finance page next week for another lot of revealing information. All this information has been given to tht Australian Shareholders Assn to use on our behalf at the meeting next month.

The ASA works on your behalh with linited funds. Membership is not expensive and I recommend membership. They can be contacted on 1300368448 or just google Australian Shareholders Assn.


----------



## cranium

If I wish to vote no via proxy, can I just list the Chairmen of the meeting but specify my vote as no? Or do I need to nominate the shareholders association.?


----------



## nioka

cranium said:


> If I wish to vote no via proxy, can I just list the Chairmen of the meeting but specify my vote as no? Or do I need to nominate the shareholders association.?




You can. However if you give the Shareholders Assn you proxy it will give them more No votes to claim and help them present a bigger no vote. You dont need to be an association member.


----------



## cranium

nioka said:


> You can. However if you give the Shareholders Assn you proxy it will give them more No votes to claim and help them present a bigger no vote. You dont need to be an association member.




OK, I will go with them. Do I need to do anything special in advance with them, or just list them on the form?


----------



## nioka

cranium said:


> OK, I will go with them. Do I need to do anything special in advance with them, or just list them on the form?




I listed them on the form then posted the form to the Australian Shareholders Assn. I wanted to be SURE they got it. Their address:

Level 7 North Tower
1-5 Railway Street
Chatswood
NSW 2067.


----------



## Logique

nioka said:


> I listed them on the form then posted the form to the Australian Shareholders Assn. I wanted to be SURE they got it. Their address:
> Level 7 North Tower
> 1-5 Railway Street
> Chatswood
> NSW 2067.



I did this also. Reading the proxy form, it says the Chairman intends to vote in the affirmative on all the motions (in the absence of other direction), so I thought safer to assign proxy to the ASA and mail it to them.


----------



## cranium

Logique said:


> I did this also. Reading the proxy form, it says the Chairman intends to vote in the affirmative on all the motions (in the absence of other direction), so I thought safer to assign proxy to the ASA and mail it to them.




Thanks guys, thats what I will do also. Fingers crossed.


----------



## nioka

The game heats up. Don't expect great things for the SP this week. Look at it as short term pain for long term gain.

Philip Wen
April 18, 2011

SHAREHOLDERS have threatened legal action against the rare earths miner Lynas over the proposed sale of a polymetallic resource to Forge Resources which has raised conflict of interest concerns.

The Lynas executive chairman, Nicholas Curtis, a director and 15 per cent shareholder of Forge, stands to vest 24 million in Forge performance shares worth $30 million if the deal succeeds.

In a letter to Lynas obtained by BusinessDay, the law firm Turner Freeman, acting for shareholders Surpion Pty Ltd, Aliana Pty Ltd and Daleford Way Pty Ltd, claimed that information made available to Lynas shareholders, including an explanatory memorandum and a notice of an extraordinary general meeting had been misleading.
Advertisement: Story continues below

It also did not adequately convey the ''extraordinary'' financial benefit Mr Curtis stood to gain when an ordinary shareholder ''scans or reads the document quickly'', the letter stated, raising concern over the valuation of the deal by independent consultants Grant Samuel.

''Our clients are very concerned about the proposal and are of the considered opinion that it is not in the best interests of Lynas shareholders,'' the letter said.

The transaction's explanatory memorandum sent to shareholders discloses on page four that ''it is arguable that Forge is a related party of Lynas because they share a director in Mr Nicholas Curtis'' and that he owns a ''significant number'' of performance shares in Forge.

The Grant Samuel report judged the deal to be ''fair and reasonable'' but noted the proposal ''must be

carefully scrutinised'' because of Mr Curtis's personal gain. It also said the ''only way to reliably determine the market value of the sublease deposits would be through an open sale process'', which did not occur.

A director of Forge, Emmanuel Correia, told BusinessDay all corporate governance requirements had been undertaken ''over and above what the book requires''.

''I've got full confidence in the governance process and ultimately the shareholders will have an opportunity to vote one way or another, both from a Forge and Lynas perspective,'' Mr Correia said.

Mr Correia said the performance shares were issued to Mr Curtis before Forge listed on the stock exchange in September 2009 as an incentive for him to bring a successful resource project to Forge, when the shares were worth much less.

He said there was no discussion of the Crown resource as a viable option until much later.

''Definitely not,'' Mr Correia said. ''It was many months afterwards.''

Mr Curtis's performance shares will vest on the condition that Forge obtains a JORC-approved resource that is able to support a capital raising of $15 million at no less than 35? a share. Forge shares last traded at $1.15.

The sale of the Crown polymetallic and heavy rare earths resource is worth $20.7 million - less than 1 per cent of the market capitalisation of Lynas, which has seen its share price rise in line with surging demand for rare earth minerals used in mobile phones and laptops.

But concern over the deal has mounted since it was announced last month, with momentum for a vote against it gathering on online share forums.

As one shareholder put it: ''We wish Lynas no harm - we just want a fair deal for the owners of the company. The board, including the chairman [Mr Curtis], needs to be aware and listen to the shareholders.''

Mr Curtis could not be reached for comment yesterday.

Read more: http://www.smh.com.au/business/shar...-lynas-sale-20110417-1djr3.html#ixzz1JobaNGaA


----------



## 6figures

yep SP took a good hit today.. what do you think of the effects for long term nioka?

would of been a good chance to take profit and get back in early next week?


----------



## Logique

Under the ASF rules, probably can't supply that answer 6figures.

I think it's important to maintain a sense of proportion here. See under, the context of the overall balance sheet.

On page 13, S4, 'Impact on Lynas': 
- adjustment +$20.7M would take Total Cash to $292.2M, or if you like Total Current Assets to $299.4M. 
- Or further down, net adjustment of +$16.6M would take Total Assets to $604.8M 

So in cash terms, not vastly significant. It's more about the differing opinions on the (potential) opportunity cost (a fair way) down the line. 

Q: Would the Lynas board really decide to respond to an expensive legal action for the sake of $20.7M cash and some trailing royalties?  That is, making the assumption that Forge would actually develop Crown within a reasonable time frame.


----------



## nioka

6figures said:


> yep SP took a good hit today.. what do you think of the effects for long term nioka?
> 
> would of been a good chance to take profit and get back in early next week?




At no stage am I prepared to be "out of Lynas". This business could blow up any day. If the deal is withdrawn or stopped proceedingthen i believe we would get an instant increase. I'm certainly not selling and hoping to get back in at a much cheaper price even if that could be the case. I'll just hold long term at this stage.


----------



## Logique

And there's no break fee on the Forge deal.


----------



## GumbyLearner

Here's an excerpt from another opinion piece

*Not just another crackdown*
April 16, 2011
By Michael West Sydney Morning Herald
http://www.smh.com.au/business/not-just-another-crackdown-20110415-1dhpk.html

As China has sought to corner the rare earths market, sending prices for the 15 elements essential to the comforts of modern life into orbit, from iPad screens to magnets and electric car batteries, Curtis has delivered shareholders a 1000 per cent return in two years. And they will be asked next month to vote on an apparently trifling transaction: to sell the Crown polymetallic metals and heavy rare earths resource to Forge for $21 million cash.

The rationale for the sale is that Crown is "non core" to Lynas's plan to dominate production of rare earths outside China. So a few million in the kitty today is better than nothing.

But it was only in February 2007 (corporate presentation slide 29) that Lynas was boasting of Crown's $50 billion worth of polymetallic metal in the ground. Crown could become the company's next major project. Since then, as official mentions of Crown have become fewer and fewer, rare earths prices have risen 570 per cent.

Privately, it seems Nick Curtis may still be a true believer. He already has a foot on 15 per cent of Forge, a stake that should grow to 36 per cent worth $30 million were his performance shares to vest as a reward for finding Crown for Forge, and completing a capital raising.

And Nick Curtis isn't the only member of the old Lynas crew who still hankers after Crown.

*Time-machine logic
*
Lynas shareholders haven't heard much from former executive director Harry Wang since he stepped off the board in 2006. 

But Wang has been a key player on the sidelines.

In 2009 he slung together a proposed Chinese investment that would have seen CNMC buy a 52 per cent stake in Lynas at 36 cents a share.

Curtis backed the deal, though shareholders weren't enamoured of it and it didn't pass muster with the Foreign Investment Review Board.

FIRB's desire to keep the Chinese controlling Australia's richest supply of rare earths has been vindicated since as the press on China's control over the global rare earths market has become almost hysterical.

Rare earths aren't as rare as they sound, only in large, easily-mineable deposits.  

Now Harry Wang and Nick Curtis are back together working for Forge on the acquisition, not just as directors on the Forge board but also as the principals of Riverstone Advisory. Riverstone is better known as Sino Resources. It changed its name a few weeks ago and is the corporate adviser to Forge.

It is for shareholders to work out whether Curtis, Wang and the Forge crew are trying to pick up Crown for a ridiculously low price. In light of Lynas's own statements it looks it looks like a once-in-a-lifetime bargain.

Then again, *"independent expert" *Grant Samuel has given the deal the thumbs up - declaring it *"fair and reasonable"* for Lynas shareholders.

(If you have the time to read here is another interesting opinion piece

http://www.theaustralian.com.au/bus...s-of-old-battles/story-e6frg8zx-1226036225784)

The cynics might say that getting a favourable Grant Samuel recommendation is as sure a bet as a one-horse race. But they would be wrong ... that one horse could still break down mid-race.

The expert earned no less than $400,000 for this piece of work. And that was without even building a discounted cash flow model. The project costs and revenues were too hard to judge. The primary valuation methodology instead has been to go back and look at what Lynas paid for Mt Weld in 2003 - no more than $22.6 million.

Crown is only a small part of Mt Weld. Forge is forking out nearly as much for Crown as Lynas paid for the whole project. This was enough to convince Grant Samuel that the price was fair.

Roll over HG Wells! So unique is this "Undiscounted Time Machine" (UTM) methodology that it is almost worthy of its own Wikipedia entry.

Shareholders had better decide for themselves if the radical shift in rare earths and metals prices over the last eight years might possibly feature in a fair valuation.

The market is now pricing Mt Weld at more than $3 billion.

It should be noted that Grant Samuel concedes its methodolgy is not robust, and that "the only way to reliably determine the value of the sublease [Crown] deposits would be through an open sale price." But of course.

Lynas did not pursue an open process, however. It opted to offload the asset to its own associates.

Happy Easter.

mwest@fairfaxmedia.com.au


----------



## GumbyLearner

Hi All

I'm wondering if anyone could help me out with some research. I found a journal article but can only read one page of it without paying for the rest online. Don't have access to a law library at present. Can anyone track down a link to the rest?

http://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1111/1468-2230.6601005/abstract

Cheers in advance
Gumby
DYOR


----------



## GumbyLearner

An excerpt 

*Shareholders threaten action over Lynas sale*
Philip Wen
April 18, 2011

http://www.smh.com.au/business/shareholders-threaten-action-over-lynas-sale-20110417-1djr3.html

A director of Forge, Emmanuel Correia, told BusinessDay all corporate governance requirements had been undertaken ''over and above what the book requires''.

''I've got full confidence in the governance process and ultimately the shareholders will have an opportunity to vote one way or another, both from a Forge and Lynas perspective,'' Mr Correia said.

*Mr Correia said the performance shares were issued to Mr Curtis before Forge listed on the stock exchange in September 2009 as an incentive for him to bring a successful resource project to Forge, when the shares were worth much less.

He said there was no discussion of the Crown resource as a viable option until much later.

''Definitely not,'' Mr Correia said. ''It was many months afterwards.''
*
Mr Curtis's performance shares will vest on the condition that Forge obtains a JORC-approved resource that is able to support a capital raising of $15 million at no less than 35 ¢ a share. Forge shares last traded at $1.15.

The sale of the Crown polymetallic and heavy rare earths resource is worth $20.7 million - less than 1 per cent of the market capitalisation of Lynas, which has seen its share price rise in line with surging demand for rare earth minerals used in mobile phones and laptops.

But concern over the deal has mounted since it was announced last month, with momentum for a vote against it gathering on online share forums.

As one shareholder put it: ''We wish Lynas no harm - we just want a fair deal for the owners of the company. The board, including the chairman [Mr Curtis], needs to be aware and listen to the shareholders.''

Mr Curtis could not be reached for comment yesterday.

*How relevant to this debate are the shares issued to NC by Forge shareholders?
*

Why not focus on the *Directors* of LYC and *their* shareholders?


----------



## GumbyLearner

Look the ****ty deal oops, I mean dodgy deal is already on wiki.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Lynas


----------



## Logique

Thanks Gumby. The shareholder meeting on 18th May suddenly looks a long way away.

I don't know how a "$27M company", as I've heard Forge described, could develop such a deposit as Crown. Unless say, it had big friends, silently in the wings somewhere.


----------



## cranium

For anyone out there who is unsure, you do not have to be a member of the Australian Shareholders Association to appoint them as your proxy with a no vote. I wasnt sure, so just rang and checked. As previously mentioned by others on this thread, just nominate them on the form and send it directly to them.
That said, I will probably join up now, i hadnt realised they were a voluntary nfp, so happy to support.


----------



## nioka

I'm a member of the shareholders action group that is fighting to stop this deal proceeding. The action has been detailed and covers many angles. The best thrust has been to get the shareholders association on side and active in the campaign. We had to produce hard evidence and not just hearsay to back up the case we presented. I can assure you that the case is well presented and a compelling vote no. However small shareholders are outnumbered by investment funds and brokers that may have an interest in Forge gaining this asset.

Investment fund managers who hold important stakes in Lynas and must be contacted. 


1. Dennis P. Lynch; David Cohen ; Sandeep (Sam) G. Chainan; Alexander Norton ; Jason Yeung ; Armistead Nash ; Alexander Umansky ; Philip W. Friedman ; Christopher R. Blair ; Daniel R. Lascano ; Kurt Feuerman ; Dennis G. Sherva (Morgan Stanley Inst Small Companies Gr P) 65MM shares.

2. Van Eck Market Vectors Rare Earth/Str Metals ETF 16MM


3. Ralph R. Layman; Brian Hopkinson - GE Instl International Equity Inv 12MM

4. Oppenheimer Global Opportunities A Frank V. Jennings; Randall Dishmon 10MM

5. Vanguard Total Intl Stock Index Inv Ryan E. Ludt ; Duane F. Kelly 4,3MM

Anyone with any connection to any of the above could contact them and ask them to vote no.

We need to keep up the pressure. Remember as late as 2007 the crown deposit was touted by Curtis for Lynas as their next big project, not his next big project.


----------



## GumbyLearner

nioka said:


> Remember as late as 2007 the crown deposit was touted by Curtis for Lynas as their next big project, *not his next big project.*




Great post. I will be voting no to the Crown transfer sham.


----------



## KTrade

Another news article, in light of pressure groups, the Malaysian Govt is calling for a hold until review panel is form. I do not endorse or take responsibility for material in the hyper-linked sites.

http://www.themalaysianinsider.com/...ant-on-hold-as-government-forms-review-panel/

One more thing, I am a newbie, so be kind .. the reason I post this link is because I often keep touch with Malaysian news, I thought to bring it to your awareness..
I used to hold Lynas, but sold out at 1.94


----------



## Logique

KTrade said:


> Another news article, in light of pressure groups, the Malaysian Govt is calling for a hold until review panel is form. I do not endorse or take responsibility for material in the hyper-linked sites.http://www.themalaysianinsider.com/...ant-on-hold-as-government-forms-review-panel/



Many thanks KTrade, interested in any news about this new review panel, and whether the statement by one blogger, 







> The objectives of the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) are to develop and promote the use of atomic energy.... surely these experts will spend taxpayers $$$ to rubber stamp the BN Govt.'s approval.



turns out to be true. The makeup of the panel will signal the intent.


----------



## nioka

KTrade said:


> Another news article, in light of pressure groups, the Malaysian Govt is calling for a hold until review panel is form. I do not endorse or take responsibility for material in the hyper-linked sites.
> 
> http://www.themalaysianinsider.com/...ant-on-hold-as-government-forms-review-panel/
> 
> One more thing, I am a newbie, so be kind .. the reason I post this link is because I often keep touch with Malaysian news, I thought to bring it to your awareness..
> I used to hold Lynas, but sold out at 1.94




There is a "Bob Brown' in every country. There was a photo of the protest group outside the Lynas site. It consisted of 13 people and two fish. Yes, fish. Two of the protestors were holding up fish. Get this out of the way now and it will not be a distraction at a later date when it could be inconvenient. I doubt it is a problem.


----------



## explod

GumbyLearner said:


> Here's an excerpt from another opinion piece
> 
> *Not just another crackdown*
> April 16, 2011
> By Michael West Sydney Morning Herald
> http://www.smh.com.au/business/not-just-another-crackdown-20110415-1dhpk.html
> 
> As China has sought to corner the rare earths market, sending prices for the 15 elements essential to the comforts of modern life into orbit, from iPad screens to magnets and electric car batteries, Curtis has delivered shareholders a 1000 per cent return in two years. And they will be asked next month to vote on an apparently trifling transaction: to sell the Crown polymetallic metals and heavy rare earths resource to Forge for $21 million cash.
> 
> The rationale for the sale is that Crown is "non core" to Lynas's plan to dominate production of rare earths outside China. So a few million in the kitty today is better than nothing.
> 
> But it was only in February 2007 (corporate presentation slide 29) that Lynas was boasting of Crown's $50 billion worth of polymetallic metal in the ground. Crown could become the company's next major project. Since then, as official mentions of Crown have become fewer and fewer, rare earths prices have risen 570 per cent.
> 
> Privately, it seems Nick Curtis may still be a true believer. He already has a foot on 15 per cent of Forge, a stake that should grow to 36 per cent worth $30 million were his performance shares to vest as a reward for finding Crown for Forge, and completing a capital raising.
> 
> And Nick Curtis isn't the only member of the old Lynas crew who still hankers after Crown.
> 
> *Time-machine logic
> *
> Lynas shareholders haven't heard much from former executive director Harry Wang since he stepped off the board in 2006.
> 
> But Wang has been a key player on the sidelines.
> 
> In 2009 he slung together a proposed Chinese investment that would have seen CNMC buy a 52 per cent stake in Lynas at 36 cents a share.
> 
> Curtis backed the deal, though shareholders weren't enamoured of it and it didn't pass muster with the Foreign Investment Review Board.
> 
> FIRB's desire to keep the Chinese controlling Australia's richest supply of rare earths has been vindicated since as the press on China's control over the global rare earths market has become almost hysterical.
> 
> Rare earths aren't as rare as they sound, only in large, easily-mineable deposits.
> 
> Now Harry Wang and Nick Curtis are back together working for Forge on the acquisition, not just as directors on the Forge board but also as the principals of Riverstone Advisory. Riverstone is better known as Sino Resources. It changed its name a few weeks ago and is the corporate adviser to Forge.
> 
> It is for shareholders to work out whether Curtis, Wang and the Forge crew are trying to pick up Crown for a ridiculously low price. In light of Lynas's own statements it looks it looks like a once-in-a-lifetime bargain.
> 
> Then again, *"independent expert" *Grant Samuel has given the deal the thumbs up - declaring it *"fair and reasonable"* for Lynas shareholders.
> 
> (If you have the time to read here is another interesting opinion piece
> 
> http://www.theaustralian.com.au/bus...s-of-old-battles/story-e6frg8zx-1226036225784)
> 
> The cynics might say that getting a favourable Grant Samuel recommendation is as sure a bet as a one-horse race. But they would be wrong ... that one horse could still break down mid-race.
> 
> The expert earned no less than $400,000 for this piece of work. And that was without even building a discounted cash flow model. The project costs and revenues were too hard to judge. The primary valuation methodology instead has been to go back and look at what Lynas paid for Mt Weld in 2003 - no more than $22.6 million.
> 
> Crown is only a small part of Mt Weld. Forge is forking out nearly as much for Crown as Lynas paid for the whole project. This was enough to convince Grant Samuel that the price was fair.
> 
> Roll over HG Wells! So unique is this "Undiscounted Time Machine" (UTM) methodology that it is almost worthy of its own Wikipedia entry.
> 
> Shareholders had better decide for themselves if the radical shift in rare earths and metals prices over the last eight years might possibly feature in a fair valuation.
> 
> The market is now pricing Mt Weld at more than $3 billion.
> 
> It should be noted that Grant Samuel concedes its methodolgy is not robust, and that "the only way to reliably determine the value of the sublease [Crown] deposits would be through an open sale price." But of course.
> 
> Lynas did not pursue an open process, however. It opted to offload the asset to its own associates.
> 
> Happy Easter.
> 
> mwest@fairfaxmedia.com.au




Good post Gumby.  This matter has come to my attention overnight and looks very dodgy indeed.  Doing a bit of reading up and will get back.


----------



## 6figures

good news for us lynas holders:

http://www.smh.com.au/business/asic-concerns-delay-lynas-deal-20110424-1dsys.html

LYNAS CORPORATION'S contentious sale of a rich rare earths and metals deposit to a related party, Forge Resources, has attracted the corporate regulator's attention, and a key shareholder vote will be delayed because of concerns over disclosure.

Having boasted of "our next project" with "over $50 billion metal content" as recently as 2007, Lynas has now decided its Crown polymetallic deposit is "non-core" and has asked its shareholders to approve its sale to Forge for $20.7 million. 

The executive chairman of Lynas, Nicholas Curtis, is also a director and 15 per cent shareholder of Forge. He stands to vest 24 million performance shares in Forge - worth close to $30 million at current share prices - if the deal succeeds. This will boost his stake in Forge, and ownership of the Crown ore body, to close to 40 per cent. He owns less than 1 per cent of Lynas.

Advertisement: Story continues below It is understood the Australian Securities and Investments Commission is taking particular interest in the deal, given Mr Curtis's prominence and the shareholder concern the deal has generated.

Forge Resources had hoped for its shareholders to vote on key resolutions relating to the deal at an extraordinary general meeting on May 18, the same date Lynas shareholders will have their say. 



Read more: http://www.smh.com.au/business/asic-concerns-delay-lynas-deal-20110424-1dsys.html#ixzz1KUdErssk


----------



## drlog

nioka said:


> There is a "Bob Brown' in every country. There was a photo of the protest group outside the Lynas site. It consisted of 13 people and two fish. Yes, fish. Two of the protestors were holding up fish. Get this out of the way now and it will not be a distraction at a later date when it could be inconvenient. I doubt it is a problem.




So do you have a link to a photo with the 13 people and two fish?


----------



## Derrick

drlog said:


> So do you have a link to a photo with the 13 people and two fish?




not just photo... check this out http://www.facebook.com/video/video.php?v=10150121367177465


----------



## Derrick

http://i126.photobucket.com/albums/...458814354_100000279046017_803349_243052_o.jpg

more for your attention


----------



## Derrick




----------



## Derrick

is the headlines


----------



## Derrick

seems like the Lynas rare earth processing plant will be halted.


----------



## nioka

drlog said:


> So do you have a link to a photo with the 13 people and two fish?




The photo was part of a news item in a malaysian news paper report on the web. I can't find it now. It was a clear photo of a total of 13 people with two fish being held up?
 Looks like they have rouinded up a few more but hardly a crowd.


----------



## wllmtrish

Lynas Sale of Crown/Coors and Swan to Forge

Vote NO and if you cannot attend the egm send your proxy vote nominating the Australian Shareholders Association.

Below is a copy of just one of the emails I have sent.

To: Lynas <general@lynascorp.com>
Cc: Martin.Ferguson.MP@aph.gov.au; Stephen.Smith.MP@aph.gov.au; Wayne.Swan.MP@aph.gov.au; Bill.Shorten.MP@aph.gov.au; Australian Shareholders Association <info@australianshareholders.com.au>; BFrith@acenet.com.au; jukieoz836@hotmail.com; fm_walsh@optusnet.com.au; mwest@fairfaxmedia.com.au
Sent: Sun, 24 April, 2011 3:32:30 AM
Subject: Lynas Sale of Crown/Coors and Swan, Rare Earths and Pollymetallic and Phosphate Deposits

Dear Gloria Rodgers,

Executive Assistant,

Would you kindly forward the following email onto all of the Directors and our Executive Chairman Nicholas Curtis. 

With Thanks

......................... 

Dear Sirs,

Valuation of Crown/Coors and Swan   

All of the figures and information below should have been in Lynas' Explanatory Memorandum
So, where is the full disclosure?

How are we expected to make an honest evaluation of the Forge proposal if there is an apparent deliberate non-disclosure?
--------------------------------------------------------
The BDA (Behre Dolbear Australia Pty Limited) report only states
4.3 & 4.4 Resources
Rare Earths: resource estimates have been defined but are not further discussed in this review which deals only with the rare metals and phosphate resources.
Why then does one have to look in the Forge announcement on March 16 2011 to find that there is an undisclosed additional resource attached to the Swan deposit and that the Swan deposit also has rare earths?
------------------------------------------------------------

i.e. 13.7 Mt of 6.4% P2O5, 1.51% TReO+Y, 166 ppm Ta2O5 and 3762 ppm Nb2O5 and is, therefore, additional to the phosphate resource.
and 77Mt at 13.6% P2O5 (with 5639 Nb2O5, 0.81% TReO+Y and 162 ppm Ta2O5)
----------------------------------------------------------
The Swan deposit has 77Mt x .81% Reo = 623,000 t
plus an additional 13.7Mt x 1.51% Reo = 206,870 t
and Crown has 37.7 Mt x 1.16% Reo = 437,200
A total of 1,267,070 t Rare Earth Ore in the Crown and Swan Deposits.
Using a calculated basket price for the Crown deposit of $ 183 per Kg and if Swan has similar grades of heavy rare earths it equates to over $231 Billion for Crown and Swan REE’s.
--------------------------------------------------------------
Then there is the Niobium and Tantalum and Phosphate (Mr Robert Duncan inferred resource for the Swan Deposit of 250Mt at 18% Phosphate) and also about 250Mt of iron at about 40%.
Using prices of $125 per Kilogram for Niobium metal and $500 per Kilogram for Tantalum metal
and an assumed value for Phosphate of $100 per ton the following calculated values can be derived:-    

Swan Deposit

13.7  Mt  Niobium $6.4B  (3762ppm);    Tantalum $1.1B (166ppm);       Phosphate $0.088B (6.4%)
77.0  Mt  Niobium $54.3B (5639ppm);   Tantalum $6.2B (162ppm);       Phosphate $1.05B (13.6%)

Crown Deposit

37.7  Mt  Niobium $50.4B (1.07%); Tantalum $4.5B (.024%);  Phosphate $0.3B (8%)

This gives a total value for the Swan and Crown Deposits as follows:-

              Niobium $111.4B;          Tantalum $11.8B                 Phosphate $1.44B

This inferred resource of Niobium, Tantalum and Phosphate would therefore have an estimated value of $125B using the calculations as shown above.

------------------------------------------------------------------

A major concern is the amount of rare earths, over 1,267,000ton. Correct me if I am wrong but there appears to be more rare earths in the Swan and Crown deposits than there is in Lynas' CLD (Central Lanthanide Deposit).
-----------------------------------------------------------------

Also with the way the proposal is structured Forge is free to conduct exploration, mining, concentration, processing and related activities within each sublease and OWN all minerals recovered by, or for, Forge subject to certain rights of Lynas to take delivery of an intermediate Rare Earths by-products;


Lynas is signing over the rights to all Minerals discovered within the subleased areas.

So the upside to the inferred resources above is anyones guess.

How do you justify this?
--------------------------------------------------------------------
And Lynas is selling all of the above estimated $231B+$125B = $356B + potential discoveries, for a sale price of $20.7 million. In all honesty, how can you justify this master agreement with Forge?
----------------------------------------------------------------------

I call on Nicholas Curtis and all Director to address the concerns detailed above.

I call on the Board of Directors to Rescind the Proposed Sale of Crown/Coors and Swan.


----------



## Derrick

they have brought this to the parliament ...

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=xdx4LmWI_JA

and the crowd is getting bigger in this "anti Lynas" group! 

if the government bow to the pressure, Lynas s USD400mil investment is as good as in the drain


----------



## Derrick

no point having so much of raw material, when the only processing plant which is supposed to be situated is refused by the government a operating license by the country 's AELB (Etomic and Energy Licensing Board).

invest carefully.


----------



## VSntchr

Not accusing anyone here. And I myself admit I was previously a holder of LYC.
But is there not a point where ethical issues come into play when considering an investment in LYC?

So far the only consideration most investors would give to this whole malaysian outcry is the possibility of something going wrong for the company. But at what point do we see LYC as morally, ethically and socially unacceptable?
Is it not wrong to fund a company which is potentially ruining the safety of a community of many others?


----------



## 6figures

VSntchr said:


> Not accusing anyone here. And I myself admit I was previously a holder of LYC.
> But is there not a point where ethical issues come into play when considering an investment in LYC?
> 
> So far the only consideration most investors would give to this whole malaysian outcry is the possibility of something going wrong for the company. But at what point do we see LYC as morally, ethically and socially unacceptable?
> Is it not wrong to fund a company which is potentially ruining the safety of a community of many others?




I agree, but the market differs, LYC SP taking a big hit this morning hitting lows of $2.270 already - in the mix of malay protest and forge sale review..

hold tight


----------



## Logique

The SPP shares are looking less of a bargain, but 2.25-30 looks a technical support zone, so hopefully it might bounce around looking for support here.


----------



## 6figures

Logique said:


> The SPP shares are looking less of a bargain, but 2.25-30 looks a technical support zone, so hopefully it might bounce around looking for support here.




thats true however allocation date is still days away.. much can change hopefully for better.. but losing 9.4% - at $2.20 is never easy to swallow.. if ur trading short term.. but long term hopefull all is clear for the go ahead in malaysia and the forge sale is squashed..


----------



## Derrick

seems like it will takes longer for the license to issue than expected.


----------



## jay foo

Derrick said:


> seems like it will takes longer for the license to issue than expected.




derrick, 
thanks for posting, keep this forums update!
jay


----------



## Derrick

for your reading, cut losses may be the way to go....

http://en.harakah.net.my/index.php?...gainst-lynas-plant&catid=34:primary&Itemid=56


----------



## nioka

I doubt that there is anything to worry about. Good to have these things aired and out of the way before start up time. The radio activity has been stated way out of proportion and is easily manageable. Lucas heights is an atom bomb by comparison. A bigger worry to me is still the sale of the crown deposit. Hopefully this is on the way out with the deferral of the meeting to vote on the sale after ASIC has stepped in to query the deal. I suggest the "no voters" are winning but the battle continues.


----------



## Derrick

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=zHB2sAmUpQc&feature=related

well... you must understand how the government works from country to country. In Malaysia, a developing country, it works very different. 

And the general election is coming in another +- 12 months time. And that is the district where the current Prime Minister of Malaysia will be contesting .... will he take the risk to go against the voters??


----------



## Derrick

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=X3OX66i0jXs&NR=1

more for your 'consideration'


----------



## Derrick

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=pM7CxnyrWIY&feature=related

and he just gave this speech to over a thousand of ppl ....


----------



## 6figures

update:

current SP on par with SPP - not good and not looking cheap at all.

interesting link:

http://biz.thestar.com.my/news/story.asp?file=/2011/4/29/business/8576520&sec=business

*"IT is baffling that Perak can even think of accommodating a second rare earth project when the horrors of radiation in Japan are still fresh on the people's minds and there was a major disaster involving a rare earth plant in the state just a decade ago.

Didn't those in power in Perak realise that as even the controversial Gebeng rare earth plant undertaken by Australian miner Lynas Corp has been heavily criticised."*

To be honest  I dont see how Lynas would be able to succeed in the long run in refining from this plant - after the first plant was shut down due to protest, uranium concerns in japan def not helping the situation.

I am holding Lynas shares and still deciding on my options - I see the SP hitting around $1.90 - well below the SPP.

Also came across this article:

http://www.smh.com.au/business/accusations-of-insider-trading-dog-a-darling-of-the-bright-young-set-20110428-1dyxe.html

It may not be directly related to Lynas or Nocholas Curtis but I am sure this is not something Lynas/Mr Curtis needs at this stage - it reflects poorly on Nicholas Curtis - also being the fact that Lynas is under investigation regarding the Forge deal.

For a company that reported a negative cash flow of $60.36m for the quarter ended 31 December 2010, it does not help that chances of generating any sort of revenue is likely to be pushed back indefinaltey?


----------



## Derrick

ya... the 'The Star' is the most popular newspaper in Malaysia.


----------



## Logique

6figures said:


> ...I see the SP hitting around $1.90...



Not out of the question. Or lower. But I think there'd be plenty of buyers stepping up.


----------



## Derrick

with all these negative news, i doubt the corporate players and fund managers wld q to buy. these are the guys tht will hv significant impact on the price. they might prefer to adopt a "wait and see" approach.


----------



## outback

Not really making as much sense as you would if you used english there der.


----------



## Logique

Interesting pre-open this Monday morning, big bidders at 2.28, making it the indicative open price.


----------



## Logique

Just another shell game. Now 2.00.

ASX Ann. this morning, SPP applicants will get 828 shares at VWAP of 2.05, the balance refunded.


----------



## 6figures

Logique said:


> Just another shell game. Now 2.00.
> 
> ASX Ann. this morning, SPP applicants will get 828 shares at VWAP of 2.05, the balance refunded.





so that equtes to $1697.40...? 

good news for SPP applicants at the rate the SP is going.


----------



## nioka

Logique said:


> Interesting pre-open this Monday morning, big bidders at 2.28, making it the indicative open price.




Pity those "buys" were manilulative and withdrawn at the death. At least I filled the SPP order at less than the SPP price and added a few more for good luck. Lynas will sort out its problems of a weak board room and management that has taken its eye off the ball. Those things will be rectified and real values will be established. I'm certainly buying and not even considering selling any at this stage.


----------



## Derrick

the malaysian government has shelf  the rare earth plant in Perak citing public health. looks like chances of the Lynas plant in Kuantan is pretty slim.

http://thestar.com.my/news/story.asp?file=/2011/4/29/nation/8577557&sec=nation


----------



## RedLion22

New York Times write up on Rare Earths and expected delay for Lynas to be up to 6 months

http://www.nytimes.com/2011/05/03/business/03rare.html?pagewanted=1&ref=global-home

Molycorp hitting all time highs tonight +8%


----------



## nioka

Derrick said:


> looks like chances of the Lynas plant in Kuantan is pretty slim.




Rubbish!


----------



## Derrick

from todays newspaper in malaysia. the authority said it will take at least 6mths, but our dear CEO said it will be ready by sept?? hmmm...


----------



## nioka

VIENNA May 3 (Reuters) - The U.N. nuclear agency will organise an expert panel to advise the government of Malaysia on the potential radiation risks of a rare earths facility planned by Australian miner Lynas (LYC.AX: Quote), the agency said on Tuesday.

The move comes after Malaysia asked the Vienna-based International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) for assistance in addressing public concerns about the project by forming an panel to review radiation heath and safety factors.

It reflects growing public pressure to scrap the plant as environmental activists say it could make Malaysia a dumping ground for radioactive by-products from the refining process, creating health risks.

"Through the IAEA Technical Cooperation Programme, the agency will support the international expert mission to review the Lynas project's compliance with relevant international safety standards and good practices and to provide an independent expert opinion on the radiological safety aspects of the Lynas Project," the IAEA said in a statement.

"This mission is scheduled to depart by May 29, 2011."


----------



## TheAbyss

Derrick said:


> the malaysian government has shelf  the rare earth plant in Perak citing public health. looks like chances of the Lynas plant in Kuantan is pretty slim.
> 
> http://thestar.com.my/news/story.asp?file=/2011/4/29/nation/8577557&sec=nation




If you have a think about how asians do business you might read between the lines and wonder who will receive a few payments in order for htis whole saga to disappear up its own backside where it belongs.


----------



## Derrick

TheAbyss said:


> If you have a think about how asians do business you might read between the lines and wonder who will receive a few payments in order for htis whole saga to disappear up its own backside where it belongs.




can it be tht corrupted ?


----------



## Miner

TheAbyss said:


> If you have a think about how asians do business you might read between the lines and wonder who will receive a few payments in order for htis whole saga to disappear up its own backside where it belongs.






Derrick said:


> can it be tht corrupted ?




I believe some one who offers bribe to corrupt another person is also corrupt in the same way who accepts a corrupt.

It is ironically mostly the westerners who have been bribing people from Africa, Asia and other country with low earnings. 

So let us not brand 'Asians' under corruption alone or to use the racial word loosely.
If it was not for China then our economy in Australia would have collapsed.

Can we discuss on the LYC issue than digressing the matter on Asians ? 

No one born as corrupt it is the environment and circumstances some one as corrupt and once again please PLEASE do not bring country equation into discussion as a generalist statement.

If some one has read the weekly magazine issued with Financial Review on last Friday. Please do read the corruption issue with two high fliers for insider trading. One of them has gone to jail and one is eitehr enjoying a jail free card or waiting to happen. 

Ironically the second person has some direct relationship with one of the top LYC executives who is not an Asian.


Thanks


----------



## awg

I posted #686 back in March, I thought the LAMP plant would be delayed, in any case.

Due to political agitation and failure to have operating approval etc.

I also posted a politician will do anything to get elected, including trashing the countries economic reputation, future tax revenues...whatever, so long as they get elected.

Witness the Green stupidity in Marrickville (try and ban all dealings with Israel connected coys).

On top of this, we now have delays in the finalisation of the WA processing plant, apparently due to their tailings dam being non-compliant.

Management eyes well & truely off the main game (hopefully only a few tho)

So my hoped for + catalysts are presently negatives.

Having said all that, I do believe they will suceed, or I would dump my stock.
I will not acquire anymore until an uptrend commences.


----------



## Logique

TheAbyss said:


> If you have a think about how asians do business you might read between the lines and wonder who will receive a few payments in order for htis whole saga to disappear up its own backside where it belongs.



To be honest it did cross my mind. I'm convinced the LAMP will go ahead, but we're doing business on their terms. They've got leverage and they're using it.


----------



## 6figures

http://www.themalaysianinsider.com/malaysia/article/iaea-panel-to-advice-on-lynas-plant/


I thin kthe market reacted to this news today?? SP up slightly..


----------



## TabJockey

6figures said:


> http://www.themalaysianinsider.com/malaysia/article/iaea-panel-to-advice-on-lynas-plant/
> 
> 
> I thin kthe market reacted to this news today?? SP up slightly..




I think its just technicals, you can expect a general downtrend untill the plant gets approved. I dont even consider $2 low for the high risk state this project is currently in.

Maybe $1.60-$1.80 bottom.


----------



## skyQuake

GS initiated a buy on it $3.75 price target.


----------



## TheAbyss

skyQuake said:


> GS initiated a buy on it $3.75 price target.




And the buggers will sell all the way to their target for their clients who have been loaded in at <$2.10 imo.

To those who questioned why i nominated Asians i was referring to how business is done. Having been involved with a few over there i can assure you it is standard fare to have to pay a little extra to have projects completed.

Miner, there are bribes and there are performance payments. Bribes was the wrong word for those with thin skins.


----------



## TheAbyss

6figures said:


> http://www.themalaysianinsider.com/malaysia/article/iaea-panel-to-advice-on-lynas-plant/
> 
> 
> I thin kthe market reacted to this news today?? SP up slightly..





Did you read somne of those comments beneath the article? Amzing stuff. They are labelling it a nuclear plant now. A lot of emotion which may indicate there will be a lot of passion into the protestations so no short term resolution i suspect.


----------



## 6figures

TheAbyss said:


> Did you read somne of those comments beneath the article? Amzing stuff. They are labelling it a nuclear plant now. A lot of emotion which may indicate there will be a lot of passion into the protestations so no short term resolution i suspect.




yeh I did, it is amazing, they are very passionate about it ... if yo uhave a look at ALL the malaysian news pages almost all of them have comments from Malays along the lines of the below of this article.. 

Only time will tell..


----------



## Logique

TabJockey said:


> I think its just technicals, you can expect a general downtrend untill the plant gets approved. I dont even consider $2 low for the high risk state this project is currently in.
> Maybe $1.60-$1.80 bottom.



Agree TJ, but feeling squeezed just the same. At least my SPP allocation is showing a profit


----------



## nioka

The rise today is certainly associated with a report giving a buy rating and a valuation of $4.37 discounted to $3.75 because of risk factors. 
There is also cause in some circles to believe that the sale of the crown resources may not go ahead. Legal challenges to the sale at mates rates and the possibility of an alternative offer are in the wind.


----------



## Derrick

the pressure from the ppl is getting stronger ... the plant in Kuantan, Malaysia doesnt look any brighter with tht, check this out 

http://www.kuantanpages.com/category/1000-mothers-against-rare-earth-plant/


----------



## Derrick

guys ... it doesn't really look good for Lynas...

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=eNrQqOtWIrs&feature=youtu.be


----------



## Logique

ASX Anns   - 11 May 2011
*Lynas and Forge Terminate Agreements*
Lynas Corporation Limited (“Lynas”) (ASX:LYC, OTC:LYSDY) refers to its announcements dated 16 March 2011, 28 March 2011 and 27 April 2011 setting out details of a proposed transaction with Forge Resources Limited (“Forge”).
Following receipt of the Forge proposal, Lynas established an Independent Board Committee (“IBC”) to consider all matters relevant to the proposal. The IBC appointed Grant Samuel to prepare an Independent Expert’s Report. Grant Samuel provided an opinion that the proposal was fair and reasonable to the shareholders of Lynas not associated with Forge or Mr Nicholas Curtis, in the absence of a superior proposal.

The Forge proposal was subject to satisfaction of a number of conditions, including approval of the transaction by shareholders of Lynas.

Extensive engagement with major shareholders seeking feedback on the proposal revealed a strong desire for Lynas at this time to focus on its core strategy of delivering its Rare Earth project in Western Australia and Malaysia. Following that feedback, Lynas consulted with Forge to negotiate a termination of the transaction agreements. The Board of Forge has agreed to do so and each party has released each other from liabilities and obligations under the transaction agreements.

In consideration of Forge’s agreement to terminate the transaction, Lynas will *compensate Forge in the sum of $600,000 *(plus GST) for partial re-imbursement of direct third party costs incurred by Forge in relation to the proposed transaction.

Lynas expects the first feed of ore into the Concentration Plant in Western Australia to commence within a week, and the first feed of concentrate into the kiln at the Lynas Advanced Materials Plant (LAMP) in Malaysia is scheduled for September 2011.


----------



## 6figures

Logique said:


> ASX Anns   - 11 May 2011
> *Lynas and Forge Terminate Agreements*
> Lynas Corporation Limited (“Lynas”) (ASX:LYC, OTC:LYSDY) refers to its announcements dated 16 March 2011, 28 March 2011 and 27 April 2011 setting out details of a proposed transaction with Forge Resources Limited (“Forge”).
> Following receipt of the Forge proposal, Lynas established an Independent Board Committee (“IBC”) to consider all matters relevant to the proposal. The IBC appointed Grant Samuel to prepare an Independent Expert’s Report. Grant Samuel provided an opinion that the proposal was fair and reasonable to the shareholders of Lynas not associated with Forge or Mr Nicholas Curtis, in the absence of a superior proposal.
> 
> The Forge proposal was subject to satisfaction of a number of conditions, including approval of the transaction by shareholders of Lynas.
> 
> Extensive engagement with major shareholders seeking feedback on the proposal revealed a strong desire for Lynas at this time to focus on its core strategy of delivering its Rare Earth project in Western Australia and Malaysia. Following that feedback, Lynas consulted with Forge to negotiate a termination of the transaction agreements. The Board of Forge has agreed to do so and each party has released each other from liabilities and obligations under the transaction agreements.
> 
> In consideration of Forge’s agreement to terminate the transaction, Lynas will *compensate Forge in the sum of $600,000 *(plus GST) for partial re-imbursement of direct third party costs incurred by Forge in relation to the proposed transaction.
> 
> Lynas expects the first feed of ore into the Concentration Plant in Western Australia to commence within a week, and the first feed of concentrate into the kiln at the Lynas Advanced Materials Plant (LAMP) in Malaysia is scheduled for September 2011.




So i heard! great news! 1 less worry for us lynas stake holders! SP responding well this morning!


----------



## dazdingo

Shares in Forge are going real good today


----------



## 6figures

dazdingo said:


> Shares in Forge are going real good today




by good u mean .. -$0.450 (-47.9%)
??

u may be confused with forge group - FGE?

try FRG..


----------



## clowboy

6figures said:


> by good u mean .. -$0.450 (-47.9%)
> ??
> 
> u may be confused with forge group - FGE?
> 
> try FRG..




sarcasarm soest really come through so well online but I imagine that was the intent.


----------



## dazdingo

6figures said:


> by good u mean .. -$0.450 (-47.9%)
> ??
> 
> u may be confused with forge group - FGE?
> 
> try FRG..




Thanks for clearing that up for me..... 

I was referring to the Forge deal falling over. Which is great news, now they just have to get rid of those protestors....


----------



## pacman

dazdingo said:


> Thanks for clearing that up for me.....
> 
> I was referring to the Forge deal falling over. Which is great news, now they just have to get rid of those protestors....





Frg - todays -46% says a lot about the influence the board's direction has on the share price


----------



## KTrade

nioka said:


> The photo was part of a news item in a malaysian news paper report on the web. I can't find it now. It was a clear photo of a total of 13 people with two fish being held up?
> Looks like they have rouinded up a few more but hardly a crowd.




I believe this is the photo you were refering to.

http://www.themalaysianinsider.com/malaysia/article/dont-make-trouble-police-warn-anti-lynas-groups/


----------



## nioka

KTrade said:


> I believe this is the photo you were refering to.
> 
> http://www.themalaysianinsider.com/malaysia/article/dont-make-trouble-police-warn-anti-lynas-groups/




Thats the one. Big crowd! nice fish though.


----------



## nioka

Great day today. Not only for Lynas but a triumph for the small shareholders over dubious actions of directors. This should serve to warn directors that they have to act in the interests of ALL shareholders. It also shows that if small shareholders band together they do have considerable power. Thanks should go to the Lynas shareholders action committee and the Australian Shareholders Association. I have been associated with this group and can appreciate how much was involved in bringing about this result. The job is not yet finished and the Shareholders Assn is being asked to do more. This is a test case that has benefits flowing on to all investors. It is in everyones interest to become a member and help financially support the organisation by firstly paying the small membership fee and possibly contributing to the legal fees we are confronted with to complete this job.

The group is asking ASA to coordinate the calling of a special general meeting of LYC in an effort to correct what we see as wayward behaviour. We need 100 shareholders to offer their names and addresses to the ASA as being shareholders asking for the meeting. They can be contacted by phone at 1300368448. You don't have to be a member for them to include you in the 100 signatures but membership is only $110 so why not be a member.:thankyou:


----------



## Robbieg

First post on these forums, I have been following the Lynas story very closely for a while now and am pleased with the outcome of the recent forge deal.

Just wanted to share a youtube channel I found today, it looks like it will be a good source of info in the future maybe, hopefully its updated regularly.

I think it shows a more factual point of view about the LAMP and Lynas (as you would expect) in contrast to the protestors and malaysian media, who seem to not completely understand what Lynas is about, and are most likely jumping to conclusions based on past and unrelated events. Hopefully this is correct and we can see LAMP given the go ahead ASAP!

http://www.youtube.com/user/LynasMalaysia#p/u

- Rob


----------



## Logique

Thanks Robbieg,

$130M pa spend, with the multipler $1.3B pa, 350 skilled jobs, 99% of them sourced locally.  Malaysia placed at the centre of a regional downstream industry, drawing further investment to the country.

Compelling numbers for any government.


----------



## Robbieg

Looks like they are messing with the playlist on that channel, incase they don't put the videos back up and anyone wanted to see them here is a link to one:

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=EgOc38FPx1I

(most of the others are in the related videos listed on the side.)


----------



## KTrade

IAEA names Lynas refinery review panel
Expect to complete and submit report by end of June

http://www.thestar.com.my/news/story.asp?file=/2011/5/13/nation/20110513163254&sec=nation


----------



## yaggystar

any more news on this guys?

I am keen to see how far the SP drops before i buy..  I am brand new at trading but wanted to buy $1k worth at a good price. maybe sub $1.90? am i being overzealous with the amount of volume?  Or do you think it is achievable if this government doesn't give them the green light?


----------



## nioka

yaggystar said:


> any more news on this guys?
> 
> I am keen to see how far the SP drops before i buy..  I am brand new at trading but wanted to buy $1k worth at a good price. maybe sub $1.90? am i being overzealous with the amount of volume?  Or do you think it is achievable if this government doesn't give them the green light?




You will certainly buy them cheaper IF the government doesn't give them a green light. You will buy them cheaper if the bottom falls completely out of the rare earths business. Neither of these is likely to happen. The government will not hinder what will be a great boost for the Malyasian economy. I doubt they will get much cheaper. DYOR.


----------



## Logique

nioka said:


> You will certainly buy them cheaper IF the government doesn't give them a green light. You will buy them cheaper if the bottom falls completely out of the rare earths business. Neither of these is likely to happen. The government will not hinder what will be a great boost for the Malyasian economy. I doubt they will get much cheaper. DYOR.



As a holder I'm biased.  However I endorse Nioka's comments, with the rider that with governments of any stamp, nothing is ever certain.


----------



## maungatapu

Logique said:


> As a holder I'm biased.  However I endorse Nioka's comments, with the rider that with governments of any stamp, nothing is ever certain.



Can't see the SP dropping below 2.20 under normal circumstances but expecting some resistance around 2.34 mark. I'm hanging on to mine as I feel Lynas has a way to go yet.
This LAMP protest is a storm in a tea cup. If LYC run into radiation problems so will ALK.
because their disposal process is very similar .


----------



## Mistagear

LYC chart is quite interesting, dont claim any ability to predict the next move, nor do I have a position.

One thing that stands out is the recent volume and no price advance. Over 1billion shares have traded below todays closing price since 27/4 yet price has not been able to advance.
When I compare the volume traded mid Mar/Apr of 700million with price increasing by 50% during that time, I can only assume some very large holders are continuing to supply the demand. This stock has continued to be daytraded so unlikely the situation can be explained that way.
Anyone care to propose an alternate theory to explain how this can happen ?


----------



## Logique

I'll attach a chart with my interpretation on it. Certainly a solid block of volume over the last month, buyers and sellers slugging it out. The LAMP background uncertainty seems to wax and wane daily.


----------



## McCoy Pauley

Roger Montgomery has written about Lynas in the most recent Eureka Report newsletter (last night's edition, in fact).  A very interesting article, in fact.  Only available to subscribers at the moment, but Roger generally posts his articles to his website in a day or so.  The underlying facts of Montgomery's article are widely known, but he makes an interesting case that Lynas is very much a long-term value play for patient investors.


----------



## drlog

McCoy Pauley said:


> Roger Montgomery has written about Lynas in the most recent Eureka Report newsletter (last night's edition, in fact).  A very interesting article, in fact.  Only available to subscribers at the moment, but Roger generally posts his articles to his website in a day or so.  The underlying facts of Montgomery's article are widely known, but he makes an interesting case that Lynas is very much a long-term value play for patient investors.




I had calculated the kind of return that Roger was mentioning in the article - if the LAMP goes through, there should be a large return over the next 2-3 years. However, if the LAMP is rejected by Malaysia, we will lose money at least in the short term.


----------



## Logique

Thanks PM, this is really helping with the LAMP.

http://www.theaustralian.com.au/nat...aging-the-nation/story-fn59niix-1226071961248
Gillard's loss of credibility on foreign policy is damaging the nation -Greg Sheridan from: The Australian June 09, 2011 
"..She [PM Gillard] may well feel contempt for the opposition, but in refusing to answer basic factual questions about the Malaysian [boat people] solution she was treating the Australian public with contempt. More particularly, she was betraying her confusion and lack of mastery of the detail of the process she initiated.

Now the Malaysian solution has resulted in * bad media for Malaysia in Australia*. Until this deal came along, no Australian media had shown the slightest interest in Malaysia's illegal immigrants. Now this will be a constant subject.

This has been noted by other Southeast Asian countries, which will now be more leery of dealing with Australia. Worse, * it threatens our strategically vital relationship with Malaysia*. This relationship has taken years of patient work to reconstruct after the hostility of the last years of Mahathir Mohamad's prime ministership..."


----------



## wangchuck

FYI

http://www.asiasentinel.com/index.php?option=com_content&task=view&id=3250&Itemid=229


----------



## Logique

Thanks Wangchuck, the implications are obvious.

In the WA Govt, Norman Moore will be wrapt with the description '..the minister for mines and petroleum and the leader of the Western Australia government..'.


----------



## KTrade

http://www.themalaysianinsider.com/...nt-safe-by-world-standards-says-review-panel/


----------



## KTrade

http://www.themalaysianinsider.com/...es-no-delay-to-start-up-of-rare-earths-plant/


----------



## TheAbyss

Pretty happy to have this in the stock tipping comp after todays report. Market will be the ultimate judge though.

Looking forward to the LYC press release on todays findings.


----------



## LiL_JaSoN

Positive news, but Lynas is not looking good in the US - sinking on opening.

LYSDY:US -12,44%
LYSCF:US -10.70%


----------



## skyQuake

New York Times posted some not so good stuff on Lynas: 

http://www.nytimes.com/2011/03/09/business/energy-environment/09rare.html

Lynas tumbles in US trading.


----------



## maungatapu

skyQuake said:


> New York Times posted some not so good stuff on Lynas:
> 
> http://www.nytimes.com/2011/03/09/business/energy-environment/09rare.html
> 
> Lynas tumbles in US trading.




http://www.iaea.org/newscenter/news/pdf/lynas-report2011.pdf
Not as bad as N Y Times and Bloomberg make out.  Most of the recommendations are for the Malaysian govt. Only 4 apply to Lynas directly and the concern waste disposal and what happens if and when Lynas shuts down this project.


----------



## jayinasia

This is an excellent buy here. I'm an American who has lived in Malaysia for 10 years. What most don't understand is the Western Media always misunderstand Asian subtlety. Also, the M'sia Govt has to play popular sentiment as election is coming up soon. Mr. Curtis' reply is dead on. The project will continue and Lynas will have to meet certain recommendations before they start PROCESSING material. This wasn't going to happen before end of the year anyway (no matter that they said Sept before). The M'sia government is using a popular tactic known locally as Wayang Kulit (or shadow play) for political points. 

I'm a buyer of half a large position @ 1.79. Will add more if it breaks 1.75-1.70. Happy Trading.


----------



## skc

jayinasia said:


> This is an excellent buy here. I'm an American who has lived in Malaysia for 10 years. What most don't understand is the Western Media always misunderstand Asian subtlety. Also, the M'sia Govt has to play popular sentiment as election is coming up soon. Mr. Curtis' reply is dead on. The project will continue and Lynas will have to meet certain recommendations before they start PROCESSING material. This wasn't going to happen before end of the year anyway (no matter that they said Sept before). The M'sia government is using a popular tactic known locally as Wayang Kulit (or shadow play) for political points.
> 
> I'm a buyer of half a large position @ 1.79. Will add more if it breaks 1.75-1.70. Happy Trading.




Subtle enough?






If the plant is to be delayed by a year then a 10% fall is probably about right, in terms of time value of money if nothing else... 

Then there's everything else like further protests, increasing costs, increased risks in RRE prices...


----------



## jayinasia

skc said:


> Subtle enough?




Public and Government opinion are different animals. I never denied a public backlash. I've only denied a Government one. There will never be one. There is too much on the line for the M'sian Gov in terms of jobs, revenue, etc. The Govt cleverly used the IAEA to take the responsibility off of their shoulders. Then they kicked the can down the road and made an imaginary goal post that can be moved at anytime to get around public opinion. This is the beauty of Malaysian politics. 

The project WILL NOT be delayed by a year. This is not a zero sum requirement put on Lynas by the Govt via the IAEA report. The plant construction will continue. The requirements would only affect the PROCESSING OF RARE EARTHS which Lynas is no where near doing right now anyway. 

The ball is in Lynas' court and it bears watching on how fast they will be able to implement the requirements. No guarantees in investing but I like the odds.


----------



## nioka

skc said:


> Subtle enough?
> If the plant is to be delayed by a year then a 10% fall is probably about right, in terms of time value of money if nothing else...
> .




The SP was held back by the possibility of an adverse report which factored in a much larger fall than the one we saw today. The newspapers have been fed incorrect information and that bad press resulted today in a fall that was not justified. Most of the suggested actions from the report are for Government action. There was absolutely no fault found with the production process or the plant itself. Lynas needs to do some paperwork and that is about it. That there will be a little time consuming red tape to be managed is the only problem that I can see.

As I saw the SP suffer because of some panic I decided it was a good time to buy. I added a few and if the falls continue I will engage in my favourite pastime, catching falling knives. A fall in the SP was not justified according to my research.


----------



## dazdingo

I also grabbed a few at close of market today and will be following very closely over the coming weeks to inject more capital.


----------



## Garpal Gumnut

jayinasia said:


> This is an excellent buy here. I'm an American who has lived in Malaysia for 10 years. What most don't understand is the Western Media always misunderstand Asian subtlety. Also, the M'sia Govt has to play popular sentiment as election is coming up soon. Mr. Curtis' reply is dead on. The project will continue and Lynas will have to meet certain recommendations before they start PROCESSING material. This wasn't going to happen before end of the year anyway (no matter that they said Sept before). The M'sia government is using a popular tactic known locally as Wayang Kulit (or shadow play) for political points.
> 
> I'm a buyer of half a large position @ 1.79. Will add more if it breaks 1.75-1.70. Happy Trading.






dazdingo said:


> I also grabbed a few at close of market today and will be following very closely over the coming weeks to inject more capital.




I would agree, Wayang Kulit it is, and very successful as well.

It is now at a level where support should come in, perhaps a sideways move if this happens.  

If it is breached then a further down move to 1.20 to 1.30 is more than possible.

Not a good prospect for mums and dads, as it will get instos in from now down.

gg


----------



## TabJockey

Well I have been sitting on the sidelines since I sold out a few months ago and now im looking to accumulate again at these levels. Will wait for the price to bottom out though, Lynas usually follows a trend once it starts (up or down) but fundamentally im sure that they will get processing eventually.


----------



## silmar

Mitsubishi now holding 9.99% of Lynas can only be positive


----------



## skyQuake

silmar said:


> Mitsubishi now holding 9.99% of Lynas can only be positive




Was an indirect investment - not a strategic investment


----------



## nioka

silmar said:


> Mitsubishi now holding 9.99% of Lynas can only be positive




They hold because they had provided finance for Morgan Stanley and have now taken a large holding in Morgan stanley. As Morgan Stanley were large holders of Lynas, now Morgan Stanley are large holders. Mitsubishi's 9.99 per cent stake in Lynas is mainly a technical result of its decision to switch $US1.7 billion ($1.59bn) worth of convertible bonds into an equity stake in Morgan Stanley last week. 

Hard to say how this will play out in the end. Remember it was Mitsubishi that operated the plant in Malaysia years ago that has caused all the opposition for Lynas recently. In that respect it will not help.

It may provide some stability for Lynas. Morgan Stanley have been big buyers and sellers in Lynas over recent times. Their trading has been responsible for a lot of the volatility in the share price.  Probably trading eratically because of their financial situation.


----------



## jayinasia

Garpal Gumnut said:


> I would agree, Wayang Kulit it is, and very successful as well.
> 
> It is now at a level where support should come in, perhaps a sideways move if this happens.
> 
> If it is breached then a further down move to 1.20 to 1.30 is more than possible.
> 
> Not a good prospect for mums and dads, as it will get instos in from now down.
> 
> gg




First things first. Nice oversold bounce but we will see what happens to that unfilled gap @ 1.60-1.65. If that gets taken out without any bounce your 1.30 may come to fruition. I'd expect it to bottom way before.


----------



## Logique

Good support for the ADS (US:LYSDY) overnight, although playing catchup after the US holiday. 

I think the significance of the Mistsubishi stake was overblown, as pointed out by skyQ and nioka, and the transaction was completed over a month ago (4 June). What I read was further delay, further bureaucracy, further _Wayang Kulit_, all of which act as a brake on the sp.


----------



## Garpal Gumnut

I would agree LYC now has good support at $1.70.

The monthly bar chart going back nearly 36 months shows a nice fibonnaci retracement to 38% which has been support in the past, $1.70 or so.

If I were of a mind to buy LYC, for the longterm, I'd look at it soon, and for the shorter time frame , I'd be looking at buying on a retrace to $1.70, but selling it if it got below this.

A nice little earner, lucky those who bought at 10c and stayed the distance.

gg


----------



## nioka

Garpal Gumnut said:


> If I were of a mind to buy LYC, for the longterm, I'd look at it soon, and for the shorter time frame , I'd be looking at buying on a retrace to $1.70, but selling it if it got below this.gg




I can't see LYC spending much time below $2. Everything is lining up for a steady SP increase as the time passes towards the start up date. Mitsubisi is now on board, there is the joint venture with Siemens and the ever increasing price for rare earths. The nearest competitor is years behind.


----------



## Garpal Gumnut

nioka said:


> I can't see LYC spending much time below $2. Everything is lining up for a steady SP increase as the time passes towards the start up date. Mitsubisi is now on board, there is the joint venture with Siemens and the ever increasing price for rare earths. The nearest competitor is years behind.




It certainly seems that way, I'm not one for fundamentals though. I'd prefer to see where the chart goes and how it goes, price and volume wise.

gg


----------



## nioka

Garpal Gumnut said:


> It certainly seems that way, I'm not one for fundamentals though. I'd prefer to see where the chart goes and how it goes, price and volume wise.
> 
> gg




Charts only tell me what HAS happened in the past. The fundamentals tell you what SHOULD happen in the future. Charts only tell me what traders are likely to try on in the next few days. With Lynas they are wrong more than they are right.


----------



## Intrinsic Value

nioka said:


> Charts only tell me what HAS happened in the past. The fundamentals tell you what SHOULD happen in the future. Charts only tell me what traders are likely to try on in the next few days. With Lynas they are wrong more than they are right.




You  might be heartened to know that Roger Montgomery on Your Money Your Call gave an IV of Lynas for the next couple of years of 8-9 dollars based on current prices for rare earth.

It made me wonder why it is not in my portfolio!


----------



## nioka

Intrinsic Value said:


> It made me wonder why it is not in my portfolio!




I wonder why it is not in everyones portfolio. 
 I certainly intend to keep it in mine, at least until production starts up in Malasia and probably long after. The Siemens deal will be a boost in the next year or two. There is the Crown deposit just sitting there waiting to be the next big project. The possibilities are enormous.


----------



## Starcraftmazter

It is hard to imagine LYC not dong superbly in the near future.

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-us-canada-14114107


----------



## alexc2005

Ah bugger, i have been watching LYC for the past few months with the intention to buy.

Seems i missed the recent lows, was a little distracted by GDY and all the other movements that seemed more significant than LYC's lows.

Seems to be going up and retracting on a cycle, i guess its just a matter of when it comes back down?


----------



## oldblue

Well, of course, the "recent lows" only become apparent in hindsight.

Far better, IMO, to wait for an uptrend to appear and then buy into some strength in the SP.


----------



## Intrinsic Value

nioka said:


> I wonder why it is not in everyones portfolio.
> I certainly intend to keep it in mine, at least until production starts up in Malasia and probably long after. The Siemens deal will be a boost in the next year or two. There is the Crown deposit just sitting there waiting to be the next big project. The possibilities are enormous.




I am going to add Lynas to my portfolio based on what I have read and the future prospects.

I definitely think there will be a bounce when production starts in Malaysia and who knows after that.

The price seems reasonable at the moment. I am not into trying to pick bottoms and tops that is just way too hard.


----------



## fureien

im going to add LYC eventually
but at the moment theres a bit of sovereign risk given that the local populace keeps trying to kick them out. Under normal circumstances it wouldnt be a problem cause local populace can eat dirt cause the govt has final say (thus is the conditions of a third world country)
however at the moment the govnt itself has problems.

That being said, i have faith that everything will succeed, the powers be dont want china to continue having 90% of the market lol. and i can only see requirements of rare earth metals increase (even tho cheaper alternatives have already been invented)


----------



## drlog

fureien said:


> im going to add LYC eventually
> but at the moment theres a bit of sovereign risk given that the local populace keeps trying to kick them out. Under normal circumstances it wouldnt be a problem cause local populace can eat dirt cause the govt has final say (thus is the conditions of a third world country)
> however at the moment the govnt itself has problems.
> 
> That being said, i have faith that everything will succeed, the powers be dont want china to continue having 90% of the market lol. and i can only see requirements of rare earth metals increase (even tho cheaper alternatives have already been invented)




I agree with your overall views regarding soverign risk, you make some good points.

Could you please enlighten us about the cheaper alternatives? As far as I understand, the strongest magnets, the red in TVs and other uses REQUIRE rare earths. I am honestly interested (just for my general knowledge).

As for LYC, if all goes to plan, they should be producing this financial year and if they do, the share price will perform very well. If something goes wrong...well, just dont have all your eggs in the LYC basket


----------



## YELNATS

drlog said:


> I agree with your overall views regarding soverign risk, you make some good points.




I took a small interest in LYC for the first time yesterday.

Even though they are a compelling story, I'm still a little cautious on the "sovereign risk" score. 

With the current government in power Australia's relations with its' near neighbours is often on a volatile knife's edge - evidence the unexpected and draconian recent banning of live meat exports to Indonesia - and in the past its' relations with muslim Malaysia has been frosty.

In my view part of the "sovereign risk" is what the Australian government may do from time to time, as they can sometimes put political issues way above our economic and industrial interests.


----------



## silmar

a great post at http://www.hotcopper.com.au/post_single.asp?fid=1&tid=1509966&msgid=8621507

well worth the read (the extract from Weiss research of a few days back)


----------



## notting

I wonder if the protests of LYC in Malaysia are secretly fueled by Chinese student, spies etc etc. to hinder Lynus and maintain control of the worlds rare earth supplies which are a critical military component.

A good example of the way China uses it's forces was experienced by us here in Australia!! The Chinese Communist Party payed over 5000 of it's students and other Chinese in Australia to catch Communist sponsored buses to Canberra to overwhelm and brutalize human rights activists who were going to protest over Chinese human rights abuses by protesting at the Olympic flag going to Canberra on the way to China.  The Chinese even attached old women and children one 5 year old was chased into the Canberra lake by a pack of Chinese thugs. This Chinese group behaved like a trained army.  They were extremely well organised using two way radios to maneuver against the human rights protesters and secure positions and make attacks with long poles that were Chinese flags supplied by their Chinese Communist Party. The idea was to make the flags look like a show of patriotism yet where actually for intimidating and beating human rights activists. It was unbelievable and amazingly pretty much ignored by our press.

It would be interesting to see what kind of corruption exists in the Malaysian politics and find out if the Chines community over there which seemed to be a covert army in Australia, has anything to do with the movements against Lynus.  We really need to wake up to these kinds of things as the Communist Chinese gain more and more influence in our world.
I bought some LYC today and this is one of my concerns over it.


----------



## Starcraftmazter

Not really the slightest bit worried about the protests.


----------



## Julia1979

Starcraftmazter said:


> Not really the slightest bit worried about the protests.




Hi there, 
the political situation in Malaysia is hard to judge. In any case Lynas has become a political issue. Some say, they get the license before the elections in Malaysia, some say they have to wait until after the elections.

REE prices have just started to drop. With hundrets of explorations going on, all having high grades of the two main products from the Mt. Weld Distribution, that is Cerium oxide and Lanthanum oxide, these LREE prices especially Ce and La will have to collaps sooner or later in any case.

These two elements stand for over 70% of the Lynas basket. 

So all the stories about billions of profits might turn out to be very wrong. 

IN FACT: If Ce and La prices fall back to the level well below production costs (10$/kg) Lynas might never see green numbers at all.

It is absolutely vital for Lynas to produce ASAP, otherwise I see a lot of people  

regards
Julia

Disclosure: I'm short in LYC and long in a couple of other REE-plays, basically HREE-explorers that I consider to be not only on LYCs buying list.


----------



## ParleVouFrancois

Julia all these years with China selling at rock bottom prices probably won't be repeated. Also just recently if you've noticed the domestic Chinese price, it's extremely pumped up when it's exported, doubling in price for FOB vs Domestic REE due to various taxes/duties, added to this is the enforced restrictions on exports from China. This is probably to further encourage the location of factories etc on the Chinese mainland, hence outside of China, Lynas + Moly remain the main suppliers in the short term.

Also I noticed you've said exploration for REE, it's not that it's hard to find REE, it's just hard to find them in economic deposits (e.g. tonnage or grade high enough, or issues with large amounts of radiation). Also processing said REE isn't exactly childs play, hence the LAMP facility is a vital part of any valuation to be placed on LYC.

Sure, IF the prices for the REE fall back to $10 then obviously Lynas won't make a profit, but the probability for this occurring is pretty low. This is like saying "well if oil falls back to $10 a barrel, Exxon Mobil won't make a profit", well of course, this is all hyperbole unless it actually occurs though.

Given that China has export restrictions, is attempting to shut down black market exporting of REE, and is consolidating what they now themselves believe to be a vital national resource, I'm at the least skeptical of a repeat of prices around $10. To justify the current price, a longer term Mt. Weld basket price of $30 or so is required, which to me seems very probable, Chinese VAT, exportation limitations, increasing demand for REE are all going to be supporting the price. I don't believe the current prices are sustainable, so hopefully management gets a few contracts going with floor prices around these levels. As I mentioned just above, $30 is all they need to justify a share price of around $3.

I noticed you gave the reason of "more deposits being found" as why REE prices are declining. It doesn't matter how much REE we find in the world, we need to extract it and make it into the purified forms in order for them to be used. I think it's just the massive increase in REE's cooling off for a bit, and longer term we'll see prices closer to $40-$50 FOB China.

Anyway I've noticed you trolling over in HC, so I don't exactly expect you to take my opinion on board in the slightest, I am merely replying in order to make sure noone is grossly mislead over here.

JM.


----------



## Julia1979

You are the guy with the blog, buying in big yesterday right? Good luck, young boy! 

I'm not saying, that all REEs will plunge once new producers will come to the market.
But most certainly Cerium und Lanthanium will. This is over 70% of the Mt. Weld Basket.

I'm long in quite a few HREE explorers for takeover reasons, ALK long term and ARU short term (expecting good newsflow in the coming 6 month)

I have not been "trolling" on HC, please check my posts. It's just that people don't accept any criticism and bank on what they see if they check the weekly Lynas basket price > 200$ and multiply this with 20kt. This has nothing to do with the profits coming out at the end IMVHO. Look at the offtake agreements and when they were closed. Do you really think these companies pay more than an average of 20$ a kg?

With production costs of 200-300 million $ at phase 2 (full production) I don't see profits exceeding 150 million. That is less than 10 Cents a share.

Considering the market cap approaching 4 billion USD I simply see a lot more downside potential than going even higher, especially because LYC still has no pre-operational-license in Malaysia yet. Time will tell!

regards
Julia

Disclosure: LYC short


----------



## drlog

Julia1979 said:


> Look at the offtake agreements and when they were closed. Do you really think these companies pay more than an average of 20$ a kg?




Where did you get that figure from? By all means, LYC's profitability depends on high REE prices. I personally think they will stay higher than $20/kg but will not stay around the current price especially once supply increases. There is just too much upward pressure on the prices. 

Anyway, to each their own.


----------



## Julia1979

drlog said:


> Where did you get that figure from? By all means, LYC's profitability depends on high REE prices. I personally think they will stay higher than $20/kg but will not stay around the current price especially once supply increases. There is just too much upward pressure on the prices.
> 
> Anyway, to each their own.




While Lynas showcases the current basket price weekly, there is no information about the prices of the offtake agreements published. For a good reason, I suppose.

Most customer agreements (5) were in 2008 or earlier, one in Jan. 09 and one in Nov. 2010

There is no price information about the first six contracts, in the seventh contract there is a hint:

_The contract price is related to the China FOB market price for the product at the time of delivery plus delivery costs from FOB Kuantan to port of delivery. The contract price reflects the surety of supply Mount Weld Rare Earths and the LAMP are bringing to the market by being located outside of China. The contract has an evergreen clause, allowing the contract to extend upon mutual agreement._

Assuming that all contracts were closed at a discount to the prices at the time of the signatures, all contracts should be well below 20$/kg. It is possible, that there is a dynamic component in the contracts in case of significant rise of prices (inflation + REE price related) but the general deal of advance contracts is price stability for both sides (to the benefit of the customers in this case).

Any delay will cause a double problem for Lynas at this stage of development.

1. Since the offtake agreements have first priority over free market activities, these customers will have to be served first in order to avoid contract penalties etc.

2. The REE prices will drop once LYC and other producers are getting ready to ramp up production. Time is money. This phrase applies with a high leverage, it's a brutal race especially for all LREE producers.

My estimates are based on theses thoughts. Any critical comments are very welcome!

regards
Julia

Disclosure: LYC short


----------



## nioka

I note that Julia1979 has been continually discredited on another forum. Lets hope that on this forum she posts only properly researched posts and maintains the correct ASF standards. On the other forum she has been shown to be shorting LYC and downramping consistantly to achieve results. On there she is known as the scarecrow.


----------



## notting

I thought a similar thing to Julia1979 about Atlas Iron when it was trading at about 96c in December 2008. They were boasting about new contracts and first shipments etc etc but never saying what the price of the shipment was or the price per ton in the contracts.  It thought it must be low because otherwise they'd be telling us.  I got nervous took a small profit and got out. Atlas has been trading above $4.00 lately.  Hmmm.
Lynus looks cheap to me.  and as soon as this Global Debt crises sorts itself out a bit I'm in hard!


----------



## ROE

LYC fundamentals stacks up for me, I am in ..let the shorter do their short 

http://www.tasmanmetals.com/s/NewsR...Earth-Element-Project-Declared-Project-of-Nat...


----------



## Julia1979

notting said:


> I thought a similar thing to Julia1979 about Atlas Iron when it was trading at about 96c in December 2008. They were boasting about new contracts and first shipments etc etc but never saying what the price of the shipment was or the price per ton in the contracts.  It thought it must be low because otherwise they'd be telling us.  I got nervous took a small profit and got out. Atlas has been trading above $4.00 lately.  Hmmm.
> Lynus looks cheap to me.  and as soon as this Global Debt crises sorts itself out a bit I'm in hard!




quite an argument there. Talking about Lynas looking cheap: take a look at the Lynas shareprice in December 2008.  Today it is a 4 billion USD-explorer sitting on loads of overhyped La and Ce. If they do receive an operating license for the LAMP this year, they will be able to take advantage of the hype and my shorts will be covered instantly. This is the risk I'm taking. If however the Malaysian government should decide to delay the decision about the license until after the upcoming general elections (politicians tend do think in categories of preserving power), Lynas has a problem. That is the risk of being long at the moment. All JMHO.

regards
Julia

Disclosure: LYC short


----------



## SilverRanger

Julia1979 said:


> quite an argument there. Talking about Lynas looking cheap: take a look at the Lynas shareprice in December 2008.  Today it is a 4 billion USD-explorer sitting on loads of overhyped La and Ce. If they do receive an operating license for the LAMP this year, they will be able to take advantage of the hype and my shorts will be covered instantly. This is the risk I'm taking. If however the Malaysian government should decide to delay the decision about the license until after the upcoming general elections (politicians tend do think in categories of preserving power), Lynas has a problem. That is the risk of being long at the moment. All JMHO.
> 
> regards
> Julia
> 
> Disclosure: LYC short




In your opinion, which explorer(s) is/are going to catch up if LYC LAMP delays for another year?


----------



## Julia1979

SilverRanger said:


> In your opinion, which explorer(s) is/are going to catch up if LYC LAMP delays for another year?




ARU, ALK, GWG and MCP

most likely the whole sector due to another big spike in HREE and LREE prices

It's a very strange situation. The whole world is looking at LYC and MCP, both very high valued due to prices that have to come down (especially LREE) and are still able to bubble up. 

regards
Julia


----------



## nioka

Julia1979 said:


> ARU, ALK, GWG and MCP
> 
> most likely the whole sector due to another big spike in HREE and LREE prices
> 
> It's a very strange situation. The whole world is looking at LYC and MCP, both very high valued due to prices that have to come down (especially LREE) and are still able to bubble up.
> 
> regards
> Julia




Julia, Is it right that on another forum you are quoted as being "long" on ARU ( and in the red) and "Short" on LYC ( and in the red there too). If so you certainly have a vested interested in ramping one up and the other down. Your credibility there has been shot to pieces as I expect it will be here also. Is it also right that on that forum you are referred to as the "scarecrow".

The world is looking at LYC because it is so far ahead of all the others that it is a given fact that LYC is winnning the Rare Earth race. To time the difference you do not need a stop watch you just use a ten year calender. The others fill spots all along the way with blanks for the first two years between LYC and the rest of the field.


----------



## Julia1979

nioka said:


> The world is looking at LYC because it is so far ahead of all the others that it is a given fact that LYC is winnning the Rare Earth race. To time the difference you do not need a stop watch you just use a ten year calender. The others fill spots all along the way with blanks for the first two years between LYC and the rest of the field.




apparently we have a different definition of "given facts" 

Since you seem to be able to look into the future, please allow me some questions: 

*1. Can LYC win the race without a license to operate in Malaysia?
2. If not, when exactly will the required licenses be issued?
3. Have you noticed, that the LAMP has become a political issue in Malaysia?
4. Do you know, when the next general elections will be in Malaysia?
5. Can you imagine, that politicians delay unpopular decisions until after important elections?*

TIA
Julia


----------



## Intrinsic Value

ROE said:


> LYC fundamentals stacks up for me, I am in ..let the shorter do their short
> 
> http://www.tasmanmetals.com/s/NewsR...Earth-Element-Project-Declared-Project-of-Nat...




Yeah me too I think any competition is a long way away.


----------



## ROE

The best time to buy a good stock back by strong fundamentals is
when they have issues....

FLT has issues during GFC
People dont travel, people with too much debt, US business not profitable ..

CCP expand too fast, buy up stupid debts, bad staffs and collection rate... 

all these companies all has issues but one thing they have in common is strong business model and fundamentals and all thing will comes to pass ..best time to buy in is when they have issues...

Long term those issues will eventually work through, disappear or
already factor into the current depressed price.

Buy sit back and drink nice coffee until the day 
Strong fundamentals back by extra-ordinaries good news, Mr Market is cheerful
and breaking champagne open bottle....by then most people will know what to do 

Lynas is back by strong fundamentals and there is a need for these products
as the world move on to more electronic gadgets, greener cars and high tech equipments...

Long term Lynas stack up...


----------



## nioka

Julia1979 said:


> apparently we have a different definition of "given facts"
> 
> Since you seem to be able to look into the future, please allow me some questions:
> 
> *1. Can LYC win the race without a license to operate in Malaysia?
> 2. If not, when exactly will the required licenses be issued?
> 3. Have you noticed, that the LAMP has become a political issue in Malaysia?
> 4. Do you know, when the next general elections will be in Malaysia?
> 5. Can you imagine, that politicians delay unpopular decisions until after important elections?*
> 
> TIA
> Julia




ALL those questions have been shown to be misleading on that "other forum". They are devious in their intent. They have ALL been answered with satisfactory information. 

I am closer to the action than you may be aware both with company information and on that "other forum" under a different name. I know your agenda and suggest that ASF is not the correct place to ply your devious trade.

I do not intend to answer your questions for the simple reason that I believe that the ASF members are capable of researching the true facts. Good research shows that there is no reason to believe that Lynas will not soon be a producer of a valuable product that will be in short supply for years to come. You will just have to accept that the long and short positions that you have are probably the wrong way around. Your short should have been long and your long should have been short. Maybe you got it the wrong way around because we are the land down under, our night is your day and what we see as black and white you see as white and black.


----------



## oldblue

I don't have a problem with posters putting the other side of the argument, particularly when they declare their positions, long or short.

There are certainly issues in LYC getting its product to market but I'm sure everyone here has done their own research and have made their decisions accordingly.

Disc: Not holding - long nor short.


----------



## skc

nioka said:


> ALL those questions have been shown to be misleading on that "other forum". They are devious in their intent. They have ALL been answered with satisfactory information.




Can we not bring what happens on another forum here? 

What has Julia1979 posted here that is not true? To me she has simply posted facts and her negative/pessimistic assessment of those facts. 

And who cares about her intent/motivation? If someone is silly enough to sell on these comments alone then they don't deserve to make money from the market anyway.


----------



## bob99

nioka said:


> ...
> 
> I am closer to the action than you may be aware both with company information and on that "other forum" under a different name. I know your agenda and suggest that ASF is not the correct place to ply your devious trade.
> 
> ...




I have read a lot of arrogant statements on this site, yet my god I cannot believe the breath taking arrogance in which this has been written. I guess there is no way one can confirm if you are the big man you claim, yet whether or not you like questions that have been posed are neither here nor there, this person, along with anyone else is perfectly entitled to ask what they like, or copy and paste them from elsewhere and expect at least a little respect from others.

I guess you missed that part!


----------



## bob99

ParleVouFrancois said:


> Julia all these years with China selling at rock bottom prices probably won't be repeated. Also just recently if you've noticed the domestic Chinese price, it's extremely pumped up when it's exported, doubling in price for FOB vs Domestic REE due to various taxes/duties, added to this is the enforced restrictions on exports from China. This is probably to further encourage the location of factories etc on the Chinese mainland, hence outside of China, Lynas + Moly remain the main suppliers in the short term.
> 
> Also I noticed you've said exploration for REE, it's not that it's hard to find REE, it's just hard to find them in economic deposits (e.g. tonnage or grade high enough, or issues with large amounts of radiation). Also processing said REE isn't exactly childs play, hence the LAMP facility is a vital part of any valuation to be placed on LYC.
> 
> Sure, IF the prices for the REE fall back to $10 then obviously Lynas won't make a profit, but the probability for this occurring is pretty low. This is like saying "well if oil falls back to $10 a barrel, Exxon Mobil won't make a profit", well of course, this is all hyperbole unless it actually occurs though.
> 
> Given that China has export restrictions, is attempting to shut down black market exporting of REE, and is consolidating what they now themselves believe to be a vital national resource, I'm at the least skeptical of a repeat of prices around $10. To justify the current price, a longer term Mt. Weld basket price of $30 or so is required, which to me seems very probable, Chinese VAT, exportation limitations, increasing demand for REE are all going to be supporting the price. I don't believe the current prices are sustainable, so hopefully management gets a few contracts going with floor prices around these levels. As I mentioned just above, $30 is all they need to justify a share price of around $3.
> 
> I noticed you gave the reason of "more deposits being found" as why REE prices are declining. It doesn't matter how much REE we find in the world, we need to extract it and make it into the purified forms in order for them to be used. I think it's just the massive increase in REE's cooling off for a bit, and longer term we'll see prices closer to $40-$50 FOB China.
> 
> Anyway I've noticed you trolling over in HC, so I don't exactly expect you to take my opinion on board in the slightest, I am merely replying in order to make sure noone is grossly mislead over here.
> 
> JM.




Lucky me, I owned a shed-load at 10cents as a fingers crossed share that one day would make a dollar or two, and wow $2.50 pop's up and I'm out.

I might get back in, yet I see a comment from another than RM and his broken crystal ball thinks LYC will see $8-9's ... mmm ...

However, I agree with all you have said and might come back in again if price drops enough to see another big gain in value.

Yet ... and I can’t find answers to this anywhere, what if, and sure it’s a what if: yet, what if China decides to jump back in with let’s call it "full production". LYC's jump can’t help but be seen in light of the decision by China some time back to limit the amount of rare earth minerals, so if they relaxed that do we see LYC slip back - maybe not as much - yet slip back substantially enough or do they now hold enough to keep the SP up?

I guess that question is to anyone who knows, or has any thoughts.


----------



## nioka

bob99 said:


> I have read a lot of arrogant statements on this site, yet my god I cannot believe the breath taking arrogance in which this has been written. I guess there is no way one can confirm if you are the big man you claim, yet whether or not you like questions that have been posed are neither here nor there, this person, along with anyone else is perfectly entitled to ask what they like, or copy and paste them from elsewhere and expect at least a little respect from others.
> 
> I guess you missed that part!




I'm one of the little guys but I did start the LYC threads 5 years ago ant DO have a genuine interest as an investor in the company . I AM in a position to know the agenda that dear Julia follows. I call a spade a spade so if that is arrogance then I am arrogant.


----------



## ParleVouFrancois

Julia imo is moving over to this forum after being shut down repeatedly on the HC forum for writing with such a negative slant and being proven wrong time and time again.

This of course just my opinion and may or may not have any factual basis. GL with the short Julia.

JM.


----------



## Julia1979

ParleVouFrancois said:


> Julia imo is moving over to this forum after being shut down repeatedly on the HC forum for writing with such a negative slant and being proven wrong time and time again.
> 
> This of course just my opinion and may or may not have any factual basis. GL with the short Julia.
> 
> JM.




you're becoming more and more professional, jochi  But thanks for your wishes. And yes: I moved to this forum because I was suspended simply for being critical which was valued as "downramping" which is absurd because LYC is a liquid stock and no individual on this planet is able to move such a stock one way or the other.

I will not get personal on this forum. That's what happened on HC with every critical post based on facts was reported by a gang of manipulators..omg.. these people are indeed posting false information there (like the pro-lynas-activist saying Kuantan has just 200k people) which is either tolerated by HC or not being reported because everything positive - true or not - is very welcome to the nervous community.

I simply post arguments and questions while I see the strong fundamentals, the strategic importance Lynas has for many sides, also the high MCap (Lynas value roughly equals the market leader of wind turbines, Vestas  ), missing transparency on offtake-agreement prices and a CEO  that never cared about his shareholders (see Crown, see his buying and selling activity before downmoves/capital rising). And I definitely see a problem in Malaysia, short and long term. We can argue about these issues in a friendly manner.

BTW: *For a serious investor, is there anything more interesting and helpful than critical questions, arguments, sights and even speculations?* I do apprechiate critics on every investment I make! They allow me to double check, where my money is. If critics post rubbish, they confirm my investment, if their arguments are valid, I might learn from them being more cautious.

My agenda on the stock market is far from secret. I do have a long agenda over years in Germany for promoting more transparency especially for the stocks in the  "open market" in Frankfurt giving criminals a free ride due to missing regulations (one is an Aussie known as "BIG JIM" btw. ). This has nothing to do with LYC of course, but shows, how absurd allegation have become. However: speculations that I'm suppose to be from mars or a foreign spy make me ROTFL 

regards
Julia


----------



## robusta

I must admit I love LYC growth story and looked long and hard at buying, but that whole failed deal with Forge Resources for the Crown and Swan deposits left a sour taste in my mouth. I am not so sure LYC board have the shareholders interests as a top priority.

Having said that good luck to all LYC investors, if it has EPS of 32.9c in 2013 like analyst predict the sp should treble


----------



## notting

Keep an eye on US listed Molycorp  MCP
Here is an interview you might want to look at.
It's also the company you may want to watch for sentiment that could direct the trend of lynus.
It would also be the siuter! As it's not Chinese abusing their monopoly.
I think that would be a pity for longer term people with a  18 month to 2 year investment horizon if Lynus can get up and running in the time it says it can.

http://video.cnbc.com/gallery/?video=3000020160


----------



## Julia1979

notting said:


> Keep an eye on US listed Molycorp  MCP




Smith sounds just as confident as Curtis, both telling the same story being concerned about just the situation that has suddenly made them wealthy in no time.  With "best wishes" to the competitor, both knowing that the race is crucial and a serious delay of the rival will boost their own position.

However: both CEOs offloaded a strong portion of their shares in the first half of 2011. 

http://247wallst.com/2011/06/07/bubble-exit-insiders-keep-dumping-molycorp-shares-mcp/

http://www.finnewsnetwork.com.au/archives/finance_news_network16911.html


----------



## nioka

Sample post by Julia under a thread titled "new .35c price target for Lynas";

"I'm shorting LYC speculating on this bubble to burst. (see my explanation in my previous posting)

regards
Julia"

 History for information of contributors to LYC discussion.
02/08/11 20:51 Suspension julia1979 Status Updated - Suspended Public: Posting to suit members book i.e. downramping. Constantly. 
13/07/11 17:04 Suspension julia1979 Status Updated - Temporarily Suspended Public: Flaming


----------



## Julia1979

skc said:


> Can we not bring what happens on another forum here?
> 
> What has Julia1979 posted here that is not true? To me she has simply posted facts and her negative/pessimistic assessment of those facts.
> 
> And who cares about her intent/motivation? If someone is silly enough to sell on these comments alone then they don't deserve to make money from the market anyway.






nioka said:


> Sample post by Julia under a thread titled "new .35c price target for Lynas";
> 
> "I'm shorting LYC speculating on this bubble to burst. (see my explanation in my previous posting)
> 
> regards
> Julia"
> 
> History for information of contributors to LYC discussion.
> 02/08/11 20:51 Suspension julia1979 Status Updated - Suspended Public: Posting to suit members book i.e. downramping. Constantly.
> 13/07/11 17:04 Suspension julia1979 Status Updated - Temporarily Suspended Public: Flaming




thanks for the clarification, nioka. 

as anyone can see, I was tossed for simply answering a question. After I had reasoned, why my price target for LYC would be 0.75 AUD people asked me why I was posting instead of questioning my figures.  So I answered politely.
According to HC my suspension was "a business decision". They told me, most people find shorting immoral.  Interesting indeed because that makes HC a ramp up base where all 4-10$ clubs, ferrari-postings etc. are welcome and tolerated while they can't bare one single critical member and blame this very member for the mess caused by the others. This is pure market manipulation IMVHO and I do wonder, what the ASX is going to say about this.

And now I kindly ask you, to get back to the stock we want to discuss. Thanks!

Julia


----------



## Julia1979

What an irrational blow for the stock-market. Banksters creating fear while their trade departments collect stocks and dump bonds. It's always the same filthy game. In a few weeks the same crooks tell us the opposite again, just like a few weeks ago.

Reduced my short position in LYC today because Lynas was - much to my surprise - still quite bullish outperforming the market for the past weeks (not in the last two days of course) and I expect a statement about the waste management plan in the next couple of days. This is likely to be discussed and likely to be interpreted as a positive step once the market cools from fear.

While things seem to run well for Lynas at the moment, the opposition is apparently becoming more and more angry.

http://www.themalaysianinsider.com/malaysia/article/ngo-condemns-lynas-plant-in-australia-rejects-iaea-report/

I honestly believe that the people have an issue with serious concerns instead of being "chinese spys" or "evil aliens" with dark motives as some LYC longs claim for obvious reasons.

But since I am located in Europe and never have been in Malaysia, I would like to read some more about the situation in Malaysia and possible chances of the opposition. Here is an interesting read on this issue.

http://www.thejakartaglobe.com/commentary/does-malaysias-new-opposition-party-stand-a-chance-to-change-the-country/418290

So if anybody has an opinion beyond the arguments I already know ("money and UMNO will always rule"), I would love to read about that because to me the evaluation is absolutely vital judging if the government could be tempted to delay the LAMP for political reasons or not.

regards
Julia


----------



## Starcraftmazter

bob99 said:


> Yet ... and I can’t find answers to this anywhere, what if, and sure it’s a what if: yet, what if China decides to jump back in with let’s call it "full production". LYC's jump can’t help but be seen in light of the decision by China some time back to limit the amount of rare earth minerals, so if they relaxed that do we see LYC slip back - maybe not as much - yet slip back substantially enough or do they now hold enough to keep the SP up?
> 
> I guess that question is to anyone who knows, or has any thoughts.




I've actually thought about this very prospect; China has killed off all other RE mining elsewhere, so what's there to say they won't try again? Well it's certainty. Businesses want certainty, and if China decides to increase exports (through more local mining of course) and/or lower prices, it will not necessarily lour companies back, as they will easily see through the sherade. Nobody wants to deal with a dictatorship who can do whatever they want with prices based on a number of political and economic reasons which are unrelated to supply and demand.

This is why LYC is a very safe bet for Japanese, US and European companies seeking to secure RE resources for the long term. And I am quite sure they would be willing to pay a premium for the security of their resources should China try and pull off any shenanigans.


----------



## Logique

Julia1979 said:


> ...Reduced my short position in LYC today because Lynas was - much to my surprise - still quite bullish outperforming the market for the past weeks (not in the last two days of course) and I expect a statement about the waste management plan in the next couple of days. This is likely to be discussed and likely to be interpreted as a positive step once the market cools from fear...



Now you're talking Lynas up? After multiple pessimistic posts? Not having a go Julia1979, just trying to keep up. Lynas have a product to sell, and the smart customers fully comprehend the extent of the control of the REE market by the Chinese, and will see through any shenanigans. 

And so, making history on ASF, I agree with something that Starcraftmazter said (Post #913).


----------



## Julia1979

Logique said:


> Now you're talking Lynas up?




I think you have the wrong idea about investing. I'm always analyzing every investment both ways. There is no purpose about what you guys call up- or downramping. The only result is losing your objective views. This is usually expensive.

Today we see great bargains in the market! LYC now flat, bought more ALK @1.28 , more ARU @0.49 and more MOL @ 0.46 today.

Still would not touch Lynas long despite the relaltive strenght and short term upside potential because the market anticipates little delay and seems to have priced in the license being issued. This can change any minute and if it does, LYC is likely to underperform, tanking big time in case of a negative political statement.

I don't think the chinese will flood the market now. They can and most likely will allow, maybe even support collapsing prices once the first producers outside of China go online. If this happens, we will see more realistic prices instead of loony basket projections that are likely never to materialize.

regards
Julia


----------



## RandR

Julia1979 said:


> Still would not touch Lynas long despite the relaltive strenght and short term upside potential because the market anticipates little delay and seems to have priced in the license being issued. This can change any minute and if it does, LYC is likely to underperform, tanking big time in case of a negative political statement.




Dont forget that it was the Malay government that has let Lynas build there, its a significant project for there country (1% of GDP ive been told) It's also a government that has been in power for .... 54 years .... I really doubt the fact there is going to be an election is going to cause hindrance, especially considering ... as you have pointed out on this thread, opposition to the government seems incredibly fractured. The IAEA report seemed positive, nothing more then a couple of slaps on the wrist.


----------



## Julia1979

RandR said:


> Dont forget that it was the Malay government that has let Lynas build there, its a significant project for there country (1% of GDP ive been told) It's also a government that has been in power for .... 54 years .... I really doubt the fact there is going to be an election is going to cause hindrance, especially considering ... as you have pointed out on this thread, opposition to the government seems incredibly fractured. The IAEA report seemed positive, nothing more then a couple of slaps on the wrist.




54 years of corruption might just be enough. The 1% of GDP is Lynas revenue. No tax is payed for 12 years, no direct benefit to the people but severe risks. IAEA is a nuke-lobby organisation and polls and protests are for real. It's just one possibility and you might be right, but I just wouldn't bet on it because a 1-2 year delay can mean that Lynas will never be able to operate profitable. 

This applies to all explorers, but to my knowledge Lynas is the first one 
with a market cap of over 3 billion $. 

Somebody said they can sell a product now. That's right. They can sell ore from Mt. Weld. The stuff with the highly advertised basked prices that has caused the hype is still a long way to go. 1 year in best case, 2-3 years likely and possible if the license has to wait until after elections and even 4-5 years if the LAMP should be called off (building it at a safer place).

regards
Julia


----------



## oldblue

A bit of a stretch to lump LYC in with the "explorers" but I agree that they aint cheap!

Personally, I'm still waiting for a better buying opportunity - which might mean that I never get to own them. Well, so be it!


----------



## notting

There not cheap from a short history point of view.  However, Roger has valued them very highly and his valuations are usually extremely conservative.  It's such an extreme move from his normal valuations in terms of relative height to current trading with no earnings it could be a reputation killer.  I think he is far to sensible for that. That's got my interest and a bit more of my money this morning.


----------



## Starcraftmazter

Julia1979 said:


> No tax is payed for 12 years, no direct benefit to the people but severe risks.




I hate to sound like one of the evil capitalists I so despise...but I'm pretty sure the local jobs it creates as well as the contribution it makes to the immediate surrounding communities will be pretty beneficial.


----------



## ROE

Julia1979 said:


> 54 years of corruption might just be enough. The 1% of GDP is Lynas revenue. No tax is payed for 12 years, no direct benefit to the people but severe risks. IAEA is a nuke-lobby organisation and polls and protests are for real. It's just one possibility and you might be right, but I just wouldn't bet on it because a 1-2 year delay can mean that Lynas will never be able to operate profitable.
> 
> This applies to all explorers, but to my knowledge Lynas is the first one
> with a market cap of over 3 billion $.
> 
> Somebody said they can sell a product now. That's right. They can sell ore from Mt. Weld. The stuff with the highly advertised basked prices that has caused the hype is still a long way to go. 1 year in best case, 2-3 years likely and possible if the license has to wait until after elections and even 4-5 years if the LAMP should be called off (building it at a safer place).
> 
> regards
> Julia




If I have this view I would short the stock 
Plenty more down size, why not short them ?


----------



## drlog

notting said:


> There not cheap from a short history point of view.  However, Roger has valued them very highly and his valuations are usually extremely conservative.  It's such an extreme move from his normal valuations in terms of relative height to current trading with no earnings it could be a reputation killer.  I think he is far to sensible for that. That's got my interest and a bit more of my money this morning.




Roger also had the stipulation on his valuation that REE prices need to remain high. Based soley on the EPS forecasts in commsec, I actually agree with Roger's future valuation but those EPS forecasts are based on high REE prices.

So, I think LYC is "cheap" *IF*:

1. Rare earth prices stay reasonably high (the $200 basket price is unrealistic. It will probably fall once LYC is supplying)

2. LAMP is constructed and running by the end of the year

3. LAMP expansion goes to plan

There are a lot of ifs there so beware.

Honestly, I think Julia makes some good points but so do others. In contrast to Julia, I hold long.


----------



## Starcraftmazter

I would say the only real risk to LYC is a massive global economic slowdown which causes a slowdown in the adoption of more expensive green technologies.

If the price of oil plummets, unemployment rises worldwide in developed countries (even more), then there will be less willingness by people to buy green products, less willingness by governments to invest in anything (including green projects?), less demand for high-tech electronics. Basically all the stuff RE is used for.

On the other hand, what better stimulus to use in order to restart the world's economy than a massive green technology investment plan by G20? Millions of electric cars to end the OECD's dependence on foreign oil, wind farms, etc. A bit too optimistic though....


----------



## notting

A massive global down turn?  Surely not.  I mean the stock markets are forward looking indicators and there's nothing wrong there is there.
Frankly I found it pretty amazing how overpriced Ipads and Iphones have been so huge in what is supposed to be such a crapy global situation.  I mean really a $1000 phone? Need to have or nice to have when things are tough?
Amazing what free to air marketing will do for a product.  Every news paper and service plugs iphones and Ipads for nothing all the time. Oh look at the cues for the Ipad release.  No wonder the old media is going broke.  How stupid are they. How many advertising dollars lost there?
 It's the Beatles! YAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAHHHHH
Jim Rogers, one of Rogers mentors is shorting tech stuff. 

Where am I?


----------



## Starcraftmazter

Don't get me started on Apple...it would be my dream if they went bankrupt during some depression because people woke up and smelled the roses. But no, they have been purposely paying crap all dividends in a pathetic attempt to build enough capital to remain solvent hoping things will return to "normal".

/rant.


----------



## oldblue

> Millions of electric cars to end the OECD's dependence on foreign oil, wind farms, etc. A bit too optimistic though....




A nice thought, maybe.

But you wouldn't want those millions of electric cars powered byelectricity generated by dirty coal-burning plants. Nuclear, perhaps? After all, new generation batteries are still just storage devices, they don't generate their own power.


----------



## notting

Excellent point. They never seem to provide specs on how much your I pad is really costing u after you have recharged it every day for 2 years!! $5000, $10,000. My that is expensive!
Then of course there's your I phone, I Pod.  I CeAge.


----------



## Liar's Poker

notting said:


> Excellent point. They never seem to provide specs on how much your I pad is really costing u after you have recharged it every day for 2 years!! $5000, $10,000. My that is expensive!
> Then of course there's your I phone, I Pod.  I CeAge.




$5-10k.

Slight over-estimation.


----------



## notting

Liar's Poker said:


> $5-10k.
> 
> Slight over-estimation.



 Well that's what Tony Abbot told me it's going to cost!


----------



## nioka

Julia1979 said:


> 54 years of corruption might just be enough. The 1% of GDP is Lynas revenue. No tax is payed for 12 years, no direct benefit to the people but severe risks. IAEA is a nuke-lobby organisation and polls and protests are for real. It's just one possibility and you might be right, but I just wouldn't bet on it because a 1-2 year delay can mean that Lynas will never be able to operate profitable.
> 
> This applies to all explorers, but to my knowledge Lynas is the first one
> with a market cap of over 3 billion $.
> 
> Somebody said they can sell a product now. That's right. They can sell ore from Mt. Weld. The stuff with the highly advertised basked prices that has caused the hype is still a long way to go. 1 year in best case, 2-3 years likely and possible if the license has to wait until after elections and even 4-5 years if the LAMP should be called off (building it at a safer place).
> 
> regards
> Julia




The "old" Julia returns.  With the same old whatiffs. Maybe we should add "what if we get hit by a meteorite", just as likely to happen as all those negatives. If I had such a negative attitude of a stock I certainly wouldnt even read forum posts about it. ( unless of course I was shorting it and my shorts were on fire.)


----------



## Julia1979

nioka said:


> The "old" Julia returns.  With the same old whatiffs. Maybe we should add "what if we get hit by a meteorite", just as likely to happen as all those negatives. If I had such a negative attitude of a stock I certainly wouldnt even read forum posts about it. ( unless of course I was shorting it and my shorts were on fire.)




The anticipation of risks and "whatiffs" normally is THE most important skill of a successful investor. Until greed steps in of course.

You are sarcasticly comparing the event of getting hit by a meteorite with the event of politicians retaining power by delaying unpopular decisions. Is this a smart thing to do?  Think about it. 

Disclosure: closed my short position monday and tuesday (see above). Looking for new short engagements above $ 2


----------



## notting

Julia1979 said:


> Disclosure: closed my short position monday and tuesday (see above). Looking for new short engagements above $ 2




You could have filled that this morning!


----------



## Julia1979

notting said:


> You could have filled that this morning!




As you can see, LYC is incredibly strong. I think this is driven by irrational unrealistic price and earning projections but it is as it is and if would ignore that, I would be a poor investor.

Asian markets.. wow! This is a historical day IMO. Wallstreet tanks 4-5 % and major indices in asia close green or almost untouched. I have been waiting for this to happen. It shows, that people begin to realize that these crooks in NYC are not the centre of the (financial) world any more. I wonder if politicians around the globe get the message of these crazy times. If the FED, banks, especially investment banks will not be regulated now, we are all doomed. UK riots show, what can and will happen to our democracies if banking crooks will continue to have a free ride for almost anything while we pay for them over and over again. If we don't oppose now, our children and grandchildren will receive the big bill.

1979 regards
Julia


----------



## LiL_JaSoN

Julia1979 said:


> you're becoming more and more professional, jochi  But thanks for your wishes. And yes: I moved to this forum because I was suspended simply for being critical which was valued as "downramping" which is absurd because LYC is a liquid stock and no individual on this planet is able to move such a stock one way or the other.




Again why you come here and spill your arguments. What are you gaining from this??

Why do you care about the other investors that have their money invested in this stock? Telling them its overvalued, the bubble is going to burst, It's not going to make it?

If you don't think it's not worth investing in, then don't buy it, sell it, do whatever you want. We don't care what you do with your money. Why care about us and what we do with our money? If we loose money what do you have to gain from us loosing?

Surely if i came across a stock I don't like, I just move on and don't go telling all the share holders to sell because of how crap I think the company is. 

You say its over priced, yet there's 100's/1000's of investors that think this is cheap and buying. If the majority of the market thought it was overpriced, then the stock price wouldn't be where it is today. Supply and demand - If there was more people like you thinking it was over priced, then obviously the SP would be lower? So what's going on?

Must be a reason why your down ramping this stock. What are you gaining from this? getting paid to down ramp Lynas? working for Arafura? You sure know abit about of company to to not be involved in it and go around and spill the goss.


----------



## WhoToTrust

drlog said:


> So, I think LYC is "cheap" *IF*:
> 
> 1. Rare earth prices stay reasonably high (the $200 basket price is unrealistic. It will probably fall once LYC is supplying)
> 
> 2. LAMP is constructed and running by the end of the year
> 
> 3. LAMP expansion goes to plan
> 
> There are a lot of ifs there so beware.




Has this been posted in here yet?

Large Rare Earth's find in US


----------



## TheAbyss

WhoToTrust said:


> Has this been posted in here yet?
> 
> Large Rare Earth's find in US




Hence the expression, "They shouldbe called Rarely mined not rare earths!

Window of opportunity to sign contracts is now.


----------



## Starcraftmazter

WhoToTrust said:


> Has this been posted in here yet?
> 
> Large Rare Earth's find in US




Just shows how far ahead LYC is from it's competitors.


----------



## ROE

Rare earth is not rare

but processing it to a usable form, something apple can use for the iPhone is rare outside China 

I think I said this previously, China been selling it too cheap ... its not that cheap to produce Rare earth
it has issues, it leave behind radioactive stuff ..... The world gave control to China some years ago because
it much easier and cheaper buying from the Chinese...now the table turns, you cant no longer go on selling this
stuff cheap...

I do have Lynas recently I think I said that too, I'm forgetful 

If thing goes according to plan, this baby can have a very nice cash flow machine in a few years, but like all stock investment there are risk involves so buy with care.....

And I have no issues with people ramming my stock down, when they go low enough I buy more ...
Stuff I buy should stand decent attack from fundamental fronts and rumour mongers.

I encourage people to short stocks I own


----------



## Starcraftmazter

ROE said:


> And I have no issues with people ramming my stock down, when they go low enough I buy more ...
> Stuff I buy should stand decent attack from fundamental fronts and rumour mongers.
> 
> I encourage people to short stocks I own




I like your attitude


----------



## Julia1979

LiL_JaSoN said:


> Again why you come here and spill your arguments. What are you gaining from this??




What is your point?
you think, we should all leave here? 
Not allowed to question investments?
Very strange indeed IMO 

*Market is waiting for a waste management plan these days.*

Good news for ARU today. BTW

regards
Julia


----------



## pixel

good news for both, Lynas and Arafura, today. Catalyst had a special segment on Rare Earths - including the problems with Uranium and Thorium. And both companies were mentioned quite prominently, with their ceos given the opportunity to "please explain".
Quite informative for the broader audience, and could well rekindle investor interest.

Tonight's episode had also an extensive segment on carbon nanotubes, fibres, and sheets; however, without mentioning Eden Energy, who are rather advanced on this front.

Look up http://www.abc.net.au/iview/ and search for today's Catalyst.


----------



## notting

> Jim Rogers, one of Rogers mentors is shorting tech stuff.




Sorry to quote myself.  It's not a call I would have made. Interesting how he came to understand how he came to that vision.

Did you see what happened to tech stocks Friday in the States.  Smashed.
Could be a rough couple of months for Lynus now.  

It's sitting on support, if it falls through and the market stays in uncertainty mode it may get a bit ugly for Lynus.  
May be a good day trader if you can pick it. 
I got out in it's last little bounce so am prejudiced to the downside.

There's plenty other things you can do with rare earths and it was the Desktop PC stuff that was particularly hard hit, as HP flagged they are virtually dropping it. Dell got a whipping too.

If Lynus can stay on target with it's production etc. it should be OK at the other end. 

If it surprises with negative news. EEEKi. Patience will be required.


----------



## drlog

notting said:


> Sorry to quote myself.  It's not a call I would have made. Interesting how he came to understand how he came to that vision.
> 
> Did you see what happened to tech stocks Friday in the States.  Smashed.
> Could be a rough couple of months for Lynus now.
> 
> It's sitting on support, if it falls through and the market stays in uncertainty mode it may get a bit ugly for Lynus.
> May be a good day trader if you can pick it.
> I got out in it's last little bounce so am prejudiced to the downside.
> 
> There's plenty other things you can do with rare earths and it was the Desktop PC stuff that was particularly hard hit, as HP flagged they are virtually dropping it. Dell got a whipping too.
> 
> If Lynus can stay on target with it's production etc. it should be OK at the other end.
> 
> If it surprises with negative news. EEEKi. Patience will be required.




Go Here:  http://www.lynascorp.com/   and observe the spelling  Just joking.

Regarding tech, the lack of PC sales growth won't affect rare earth demand. The reason that PC sales are falling is because people are replacing them with mobile phones and tablets. This is bad for: HP, Dell, (other pure PC manufacturers), Microsoft, etc. It is good for Apple, Samsung, HTC, etc. Both of those sets of companies require rare earths (except to a lesser extent Microsoft).

So while tech stocks are going down, I don't think that affects Lynas.

Note: from a technical point, I have no idea. Just commenting from the technology shift perspective.


----------



## notting

I think I was pointing more to the tech wreck on Wall St Friday, in the light of Jim Rogers short. That seems broad to me. Apple's had an amazing decade, that could end soon. Personally I think the I pad is a stretch, its not a business machine. It's a nice to have. Dell should do well out of all this IMO. Still trying to understand Jim Rogers short. Remember Roger is a fan.
Yeah Lynas! Unbelievable isn't! Maybe I'll remember now.


----------



## RandR

notting said:


> I think I was pointing more to the tech wreck on Wall St Friday, in the light of Jim Rogers short. That seems broad to me. Apple's had an amazing decade, that could end soon. Personally I think the I pad is a stretch, its not a business machine. It's a nice to have. Dell should do well out of all this IMO. Still trying to understand Jim Rogers short. Remember Roger is a fan.
> Yeah Lynas! Unbelievable isn't! Maybe I'll remember now.




I doubt Jim Rogers is going on a 'broad' tech short, im sure he has some specific targets in mind. (pc manufacturers etc)

 For an interesting perspective on the shifting change of technology. Checkout jb hi fi's latest result ... (despite all of the doom and glooom about the internet) music cd sales surprisingly didnt drop much, but sales of games software (led by psp and all the handheld game platforms) absolutely plummeted, to be down more then 16% ! This move is not drivin by the internet, but rather the smartphone tsunami. Why spend the $$$ on a psp and $$$ on games for it, when you can download a $1 app on to your phone that will keep you entertained when your not at home. Sales of tech hardware did very well, and I find it pretty hard to imagine people not continuing to spend there money on tech, but of course the market for these products is continually shifting.

I think in the long run I wouldnt at all be worried about Jim Rogers shorting tech,  he's still (if you believe him) incredibly bullish on commodities. I dont think any of this matters really to lynas anyway ...

the key for lynas through to the end of the year is to get lamp finished, and get all the appropriate approval to have that bad boy running, Once they announce these things I think lynas will wit $3. (provided of course RE price doesnt move southward in the meantime)


----------



## seattle0099

I think the LYC's main market in next 2-5 years is hybrid cars.


----------



## notting

It was week today amidst the market bounce which was a bit scary!
It ticked up at the end so hopefully support is holding. I took a bit of a nibble.


----------



## Logique

Thinking more broadly, I like my lunations and there's one soon. 

The CDNX index is about junior miners, albeit biased toward junior gold/silver. On the weekly chart below, check that CDNX:SPX with EMA 20 indicator. Also the declining sell volume. The daily chart at the link is interesting too. 
http://stockcharts.com/freecharts/gallery.html?$CDNX


----------



## notting

Opened higher than yesterdays closed.
Looks like a good swing entry today. Tech people might confirm?


----------



## 6figures

5% jump today at lunch... any reason why? 

the gap bewtween buyers and sellers are closing up since hte morning..


----------



## Julia1979

Lynas tanks despite a good ann about BASF supply contract 
and nobody over at the ramp up base has a clue why. 
Suggest to take a look at ARU, up over 10% with no news. 

Reasons for this obvious correlation might be found here:

http://www.australiacampervans.net/...-stop-lynas-speaking-tour-in-perth-stop-lynas

or here:

http://www.themalaysianinsider.com/...as-if-project-cancelled-group-asks-putrajaya/

BTW: it is semptember and we still haven't heard about the waste management plan..

1979 regards
Julia


----------



## oldblue

You certainly have your finger on the anti-Lynas pulse, Julia.

So is the favourable ARU movement today all benefit from LYC's troubles or is there some other reason that we don't know about?


----------



## Buckfont

oldblue said:


> You certainly have your finger on the anti-Lynas pulse, Julia.
> 
> So is the favourable ARU movement today all benefit from LYC's troubles or is there some other reason that we don't know about?




Might be because Aust Small Cap Investigator gave ARU a plug yesterday.


----------



## skc

Julia1979 said:


> Lynas tanks despite a good ann about BASF supply contract
> and nobody over at the ramp up base has a clue why.
> Suggest to take a look at ARU, up over 10% with no news.
> 
> Reasons for this obvious correlation might be found here:
> 
> 1979 regards
> Julia




Obvious correlation? For year to date...
LYC down 21%
ARU down 53%

You expecting convergence to close the gap? Or continuation with the past trend?


----------



## Logique

LYC mthly, ARU mthly, NTU wkly charts. 
In the comparison of the more established stocks Lynas and Arafura, it must be admitted that Julia1979 makes a case for the short term arbitrageur/trader. Long term believers in Lynas will doubtless shrug this off as just the machinations of getting the LAMP up and running.


----------



## lenny

Looks like this might close below 1.70 which is very strong support.

If it does lower prices are on the cards.


----------



## skc

lenny said:


> Looks like this might close below 1.70 which is very strong support.
> 
> If it does lower prices are on the cards.




Yup... $1.20 is the next support. A fair way down isn't it?!!?


----------



## lenny

skc said:


> Yup... $1.20 is the next support. A fair way down isn't it?!!?




I'd say dollar fiddy first stop.


----------



## doogie_goes_off

Gotta agree lenny, if there's support from Insto's around the $1.50 mark then this is likely to be the new base. Interesting times.


----------



## PinguPingu

Yar, she be holdin' on by the skin of 'er teeth, capt'n. irate:


----------



## Starcraftmazter

That was a hell of a turnaround today? High volume too


----------



## Dreadweave

Starcraftmazter said:


> That was a hell of a turnaround today? High volume too




Its looking pretty good. Enticing enough for me to buy in yesterday shortly after that big turn around.

Lets see how it goes.


----------



## lenny

$1.50 Target met.

$1.20 not out of the question.


----------



## Starcraftmazter

Indeed if it bottoms out around there might be some bargain pickings, I'm certainly paying close attention. Pretty amazing considering it can potentially be close to 50% discount on it's value of very recently.

Does anyone have any news on the sovereign risk? Is everything on track or are they waiting for any sort of approval?


----------



## RandR

Starcraftmazter said:


> Indeed if it bottoms out around there might be some bargain pickings, I'm certainly paying close attention. Pretty amazing considering it can potentially be close to 50% discount on it's value of very recently.
> 
> Does anyone have any news on the sovereign risk? Is everything on track or are they waiting for any sort of approval?




Soveriegn risk is fine imo, and extremely marginal.

The key risk for Lynas imo is the commissioning of the lamp, getting the technical aspects of the plant running smoothly are the most important. It is a fairly complicated chemical and industrial process. They need things to be running fairly smoothly from the get go.

Reading some of the people panicking on HC can be quite sickening ... people putting large stakes of there net wealth in to lynas in the $2+ range is scary.


----------



## nioka

RandR said:


> Reading some of the people panicking on HC can be quite sickening ... people putting large stakes of there net wealth in to lynas in the $2+ range is scary.




They will only lose if they sell. Those that bought using margin loans wiil have had calls and have paid for an expensive lesson in "Only invest what you can afford to lose". I have no worries holding and using the volatility to trade for a few more freebies. I expect to attend the $4 party sometime next year. DYOR (as BUL and EKA are showing that I'm often wrong.)


----------



## dazdingo

Lynas is a demonic Toyota..... lol


----------



## lenny

This is hanging on by a thread.

Could get interesting if the market tanks tonight.


----------



## skc

lenny said:


> $1.50 Target met.
> 
> $1.20 not out of the question.




And we landed there perfectly this morning and now a small bounce. Question remains wehther it can hold.

Wouldn't surprise me if there's a trading halt... just a clarifying statement if nothing else.

The cause appears to be Molycorp being downgraded last night. MCP itself fell 18% so LYC pretty much just matching it.


----------



## notting

Yes, also the US has amped up a bit about trade barriers that China is cheating with.  The US also sited the rare earths issue.  
The US is posturing to make decisive steps against China's destruction of the global economy with it's massive slave labor force, barriers to trade, insistence that companies hand over technology secrets in order to gain access to Chinese markets and blatant manipulation of currencies and rare earths prices etc....................................


Where's Woger?


----------



## vincent191

notting said:


> Yes, also the US has amped up a bit about trade barriers that China is cheating with.  The US also sited the rare earths issue.
> The US is posturing to make decisive steps against China's destruction of the global economy with it's massive slave labor force, barriers to trade, insistence that companies hand over technology secrets in order to gain access to Chinese markets and blatant manipulation of currencies and rare earths prices etc....................................
> 
> 
> Where's Woger?




Where are you getting this misinformation from?? Who is the primary cause of the last GFC? The USA, Europe or China?


----------



## vincent191

Holy molly....look at the volume. Exceed $100,000,000. Cannot be just ordinary punters and wild rumours. I wonder what's up??


----------



## Sir Lunchalot

vincent191 said:


> Where are you getting this misinformation from?? Who is the primary cause of the last GFC? The USA, Europe or China?




Seems a pretty accurate assessment of China's modus operandi to me.

Delay and doubt over Lynas production allows Chinese proxies to acquire shares as cheaply as possible while the Dragon continues to hold sway over world reserves.

Sir Lunchalot
Scoffer Extraordinare


----------



## notting

That was yesterdays status quo, today it seems, GM has cut a deal with China which has cooled things off somewhat as GM claims China did not make demands about 'technology sharing' on this occasion.
Perhaps yesterdays posturing helped get the deal done.
Rare earth prices have come off a bit which is why Molycorp was downgraded.


----------



## 6figures

http://www.theaustralian.com.au/bus...ngraded-molycorp/story-e6frg9df-1226142566943


----------



## skc

Very critical juncture coming up for LYC on the chart...  One would expect to see a bounce purely on the technicals, but if the broader market tanks...




BTW has anyone got data on the size of the rare earth market in volume and value? Thanks


----------



## Starcraftmazter

vincent191 said:


> Holy molly....look at the volume. Exceed $100,000,000. Cannot be just ordinary punters and wild rumours. I wonder what's up??




Yeh, in the first hour of trade volume went to 60mill shares and my face was 

I thought about buying in around the bottom but didn't have the guts. Clearly something bigger is going on with institutional investors.

It's anyone's guess what happens tomorrow


----------



## RandR

Starcraftmazter said:


> Yeh, in the first hour of trade volume went to 60mill shares and my face was
> 
> I thought about buying in around the bottom but didn't have the guts. Clearly something bigger is going on with institutional investors.
> 
> It's anyone's guess what happens tomorrow




The last time there was this much volume in a down move on this stock, was the 1/7/11 the stock proceeded to bounce higher and close on the following day above the level of the opening on the down day.

It looks like a POTENTIAL selling climax to me. The fact that it was initiated by a broker report just makes it stink a little more.

Based upon the previous similar day, which happened less then 3 months ago, im going to take a stab in the dark and predict that history will repeat, and LYC  will close above 1.35 tomorrow.


----------



## 6figures

RandR said:


> The last time there was this much volume in a down move on this stock, was the 1/7/11 the stock proceeded to bounce higher and close on the following day above the level of the opening on the down day.
> 
> It looks like a POTENTIAL selling climax to me. The fact that it was initiated by a broker report just makes it stink a little more.
> 
> Based upon the previous similar day, which happened less then 3 months ago, im going to take a stab in the dark and predict that history will repeat, and LYC  will close above 1.35 tomorrow.




i have a feeling its oging to tank even more after the US slumped.. 

1.20 here we come..


----------



## notting

Been down by another %11.
Here is some more mews on US China issues:
http://www.cnbc.com/id/44619186


----------



## RandR

Good thing I didnt back up my stab in the dark with money.

Buying support is evaporating quickly.

Just punched in a 52 week low. 

Im thinking there are a LOT of 'little people' who have lost big on this.

and probably a select few ' big people' that have won big.

Has anyone held a short on this over the last 2 days ? Well done if so.

Should be very interesting to watch this over the next few weeks.

Just to add to all the excitement I believe there report is coming out tomorrow.


----------



## 6figures

RandR said:


> Good thing I didnt back up my stab in the dark with money.
> 
> Buying support is evaporating quickly.
> 
> Just punched in a 52 week low.
> 
> Im thinking there are a LOT of 'little people' who have lost big on this.
> 
> and probably a select few ' big people' that have won big.
> 
> Has anyone held a short on this over the last 2 days ? Well done if so.
> 
> Should be very interesting to watch this over the next few weeks.
> 
> Just to add to all the excitement I believe there report is coming out tomorrow.




indeed.... LYC is killing my life right now...


----------



## PinguPingu

Down a nasty 40% on Lynas now. Said I'd wait till it was back below 2$, looks like I should have waited a bit longer. 

However, Lynas has always been high risk and..... with great risk, comes great volatility. Let's see how they're doing when (if) LAMP comes online.

Edit: 

Using only a 80$/kg spot price (half current price) of Rare Earths, Patersons has a price target of $2.90, retaining their buy.


----------



## skc

skc said:


> Obvious correlation? For year to date...
> LYC down 21%
> ARU down 53%
> 
> You expecting convergence to close the gap? Or continuation with the past trend?
> 
> View attachment 44316




Now that would have been a nice trade. 37% in 20 days.


----------



## dazdingo

Does anyone here know anything about this news story i just read?

http://www.smh.com.au/business/lyna...-that-chairman-steps-down-20110922-1kn7i.html


----------



## oldblue

It's been a well publicised, on-going story for some time now. The proposal was defeated but obviously certain shareholders have lost confidence in the chairman.

I doubt whether it is having much influence on the current SP weakness which is more to do with REE prices, difficulties in Malaysia and global uncertainty generally.

I don't hold.


----------



## drlog

After skimming the report, I think they are planning on finishing LAMP within the next 12 months even though they dont have final approval for it yet. Anyone else read it differently?


----------



## KTrade

Dr Mahathir's (ex PM) blog on Lynas
http://www.freemalaysiatoday.com/2011/09/23/dr-m-has-vested-interest-in-lynas/


----------



## robusta

robusta said:


> I must admit I love LYC growth story and looked long and hard at buying, but that whole failed deal with Forge Resources for the Crown and Swan deposits left a sour taste in my mouth. I am not so sure LYC board have the shareholders interests as a top priority.
> 
> Having said that good luck to all LYC investors, if it has EPS of 32.9c in 2013 like analyst predict the sp should treble




Difficult to quantify but honest management with interests aligned with shareholders is vital IMO

http://www.smh.com.au/business/lyna...-that-chairman-steps-down-20110922-1kn7i.html


----------



## Julia1979

*back to pennies*

..and without the LAMP being canceled yet we are moving towards my price target of 0.75 AUD.  
Basket prices, a corrupt CEO that cares for his own profits only and above all almost a month of no news regarding the LAMP / waste plan are the reasons. 

I feel sorry for the longs but stay short.

1979 regards
Julia


----------



## TabJockey

Harsh assault on this stock. Picked some up at 1.05, continues to fall. There is allot of risk priced into this thing!


----------



## 6figures

there goes Lynas...... and a lot of $$$$


----------



## PinguPingu

*Re: back to pennies*



Julia1979 said:


> ..and without the LAMP being canceled yet we are moving towards my price target of 0.75 AUD.
> Basket prices, a corrupt CEO that cares for his own profits only and above all almost a month of no news regarding the LAMP / waste plan are the reasons.
> 
> I feel sorry for the longs but stay short.
> 
> 1979 regards
> Julia




Both ARU and LYC are down ~64-65% since the beginning of April. 


What a convergence...


----------



## Julia1979

Over at the ramp up base they are quite desperate.
Someone is spreading ridiculous rumors:

"Commissioning through end of year, production beginning of 2012. From a very reliable source..." 

Lynas hasn't even presented a waste management plan (due by August) 

regards
Julia


----------



## kat

Julia1979 said:


> Over at the ramp up base they are quite desperate.
> Someone is spreading ridiculous rumors:
> 
> "Commissioning through end of year, production beginning of 2012. From a very reliable source..."
> 
> Lynas hasn't even presented a waste management plan (due by August)
> 
> regards
> Julia[/QUOTE


----------



## kat

kat said:


> Julia1979 said:
> 
> 
> 
> Over at the ramp up base they are quite desperate.
> Someone is spreading ridiculous rumors:
> 
> "Commissioning through end of year, production beginning of 2012. From a very reliable source..."
> 
> Lynas hasn't even presented a waste management plan (due by August)
> 
> regards
> Julia[/QUOTE
> 
> 
> 
> 
> A good day to short this goodie.
Click to expand...


----------



## lenny

Yeah Kat agree.

This has had a LOUD sell on it when it closed below $1.70

This now has 50 cents written all over it


----------



## drlog

Lenny and Cat,

Can you please enlighten me - what is the logic of this aggressive fall? Is it that there are simply no buyers around? REE prices haven't fallen that much and LYC hasn't announced any negative news!

LYC is starting to look very cheap on future forecasts (once again, take those forecasts with a salt shaker). If it goes below 50c, I will probably buy more. Oh well, always learning


----------



## TabJockey

Never seen a bear market before? stocks fall because buyers are waiting for a bottom and a change in trend.


----------



## drlog

TabJockey said:


> Never seen a bear market before? stocks fall because buyers are waiting for a bottom and a change in trend.




Heh, good point - I guess I am trying to be rational. Sorry about that 

The good news is, there are some bargains around right now. LYC is one of them in my opinion.


----------



## skc

drlog said:


> Lenny and Cat,
> 
> Can you please enlighten me - what is the logic of this aggressive fall? Is it that there are simply no buyers around? REE prices haven't fallen that much and LYC hasn't announced any negative news!
> 
> LYC is starting to look very cheap on future forecasts (once again, take those forecasts with a salt shaker). If it goes below 50c, I will probably buy more. Oh well, always learning




In a bull market shares are priced on fundamentals and optimism. Production will be on time without problems at full capacity and a good price. 

In a bear market shares are priced on risks. REE price might fall another 25%, Chinese will flood the market again, construction might hit problems, production might be delayed, and no one can afford to buy iphones anymore when there's a depression. 

With the change in sentiments and assumptions you can easily value something like LYC at $4 or $1... depends on how much you discount those risks and how much return you want.

You will often hear that 'the fundamentals haven't changed'. Take that statement with a grain of salt. The fundamentals were never set... 

To manage your risk on a share like LYC you better buy at a price that is based on below average assumptions rather than at the optimistic end... 

And keep in mind - LYC still has a market cap of $1.5B. And the collective market size of REE outside Chinese supply is...?


----------



## PinguPingu

Down 22% one day, up 27% the next. Lynas, you so crazy.

Make that 35%


----------



## 6figures

PinguPingu said:


> Make that 35%+




wow .. that is all..

glad i took a dive and pruchased at 0.870...


----------



## skc

6figures said:


> wow .. that is all..
> 
> glad i took a dive and pruchased at 0.870...




Thought $1.20 needs to be re-visited before LYC heads north or south...

Just didn't think it was going to happen in one day!


----------



## 6figures

skc said:


> Thought $1.20 needs to be re-visited before LYC heads north or south...
> 
> Just didn't think it was going to happen in one day!




yes its crazy, a lot more volite moments to come.. 

heart attack stock..


----------



## Logique

I wonder if there'll be a speeding ticket from the ASX. That really would take the biscuit.


----------



## jah008

Logique said:


> I wonder if there'll be a speeding ticket from the ASX. That really would take the biscuit.




Might need one. It closed yesterday at $1.180, the early morning orders are already at $1.310.


----------



## notting

TabJockey said:


> Harsh assault on this stock. Picked some up at 1.05, continues to fall. There is allot of risk priced into this thing!




At the time you announced this trade I thought it was suicidal.
I know what I'd be doing today if I had made it.


----------



## TabJockey

notting said:


> At the time you announced this trade I thought it was suicidal.
> I know what I'd be doing today if I had made it.




Yes I had a quick paper loss and I was resolved to hold the stock into production on deep value, but yesterday I got out at 15% profit. I still believe that the stock is very much over sold but I am not in the habit of turning my nose up at 15% in a day.

Probably not the type of market to "let your profits run" in IMO.


----------



## jah008

TabJockey said:


> Yes I had a quick paper loss and I was resolved to hold the stock into production on deep value, but yesterday I got out at 15% profit. I still believe that the stock is very much over sold but I am not in the habit of turning my nose up at 15% in a day.
> 
> Probably not the type of market to "let your profits run" in IMO.




Same. Made my first ever trade on this stock yesterday. Made 10% and sold this morning. To volatile.


----------



## jonp

Should have sold yesterday...


----------



## Julia1979

jonp said:


> Should have sold yesterday...




Things indeed look a little bumpy for Lynas these days. 

FRAUD ALLEGATIONS / ASIC COMPLAINT
http://www.abc.net.au/news/2011-09-...tralian-company-of-fraud/3034900/?site=sydney

SHAREHOLDER ACTION AGAINST CEO
http://australianshareholders.com.a...eholder-inc&catid=39:news-and-media&Itemid=59

I wonder if CEO Curtis can be charged for compensation having sold most of his free shares before the whole mess started in Feb. ?

Most important, there is too little information about the progress in Malaysia. Wouldn't it be easy for Lynas management to show what is happening there by providing weekly updated photographs?

1979 regards
Julia

(still short with price targets of .75 and 0.48)


----------



## smokeycastle

I don't think you will meet those targets Julia.


----------



## Joe Blow

Julia1979 said:


> (still short with price targets of .75 and 0.48)




Julia, please note that here at ASF all posted price targets must include some elaboration in order to explain how you have arrived at those particular targets. We know other forums don't require this, but we do.

If you have offered an explanation earlier in the thread then please repost it for those who may have missed it. Otherwise, some additional detail would be appreciated.


----------



## doogie_goes_off

Hi Joe,

Couldn't agree more with your request, hopefully our German friend will come back to the forum.

Please find attached a back of the envelope analysis of LYC. Fundamental support appeared to be at the upper level (horizontal in blue) of ~1.20/1.25. As you can see from the three year chart this has only recently been shot through to a potential support level with a double bottom potentiall forming at around $1. The fundamental underlying support that was established as LYC started significant work at Mt Weld is indeed at around 49/50c as Julia1979 has suggested. I can not see a technical reason for her mid price target, however the blue trading range does show a marked down trend in support, however it is worth noting that the uptick in volume indicates support at >$1 and potentially will form a new base. Hope this helps all potential investors. The fundamental downside risk is always $0 with single project, single resource companies, however LYC is a good chance of keeping above $0.49c IMO. It is also my opinion that Mt Weld is a wolrd class resource and the company is to be respected for progressing it, despite their current troubles. 

View attachment file.bmp


Do your own research. I am not a financial adviser.


----------



## skc

Good story from Bloomberg...

http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2011-...toyota-develops-alternatives-commodities.html



> Rare-earth prices are set to extend their decline from records this year as buyers including Toyota Motor Corp. (7203) and General Electric Co. (GE) scale back using the materials in their cars and windmills






> Like any market, you’re going to see up and down in the course of a month or two,” Smith said. “But the overall trend remains short supply, heavy demand.”
> 
> The ability to substitute many rare-earth applications will be limited, said Constantine Karayannopoulos, CEO of Neo Material Technologies Inc. (NEM), a Toronto-based producer of rare- earths, magnetic powders and rare metals.
> 
> “All kinds of folks are trying to use alternative technologies,” he said by phone. “Longer-term, don’t expect these technologies to be in place this quarter or the next.”


----------



## 6figures

Any reaction from this news today...?

5 Million Hours LTI Free Achieved at Lynas Advanced Materials Plant

Lynas Corporation Limited (“Lynas”) (ASX:LYC, OTC:LYSDY) is pleased to announce a major milestone in achieving 5 million hours Lost Time Injury (“LTI”) free in the development and continuing construction of the Lynas Advanced Materials Plant (LAMP) in the Gebeng Industrial Estate, near Kuantan, Malaysia.
The Concentration Plant in Western Australia commenced feed of ore on 14 May 2011 and is performing well. First feed of concentrate at the LAMP is scheduled to be achieved in the fourth quarter of 2011. Lynas has received all required approvals to construct the LAMP, and is in the process of applying for all pre-operation and operation approvals.


----------



## drlog

6figures said:


> in the process of applying for all pre-operation and operation approvals.




Overall I think it is "good news" but not very price sensitive. Once the opperations have been approved, that will be very good news.

I guess this is one small step toward a final product.


----------



## Julia1979

Joe Blow said:


> Julia, please note that here at ASF all posted price targets must include some elaboration in order to explain how you have arrived at those particular targets. We know other forums don't require this, but we do.
> 
> If you have offered an explanation earlier in the thread then please repost it for those who may have missed it. Otherwise, some additional detail would be appreciated.




Don Joe,
I welcome the ASF requirements as a major difference to other forums, especially Australia's main ramp up base. 
0.75 is just a personal/psychological target on the way to the .48 region, that is quite obviously tech based (test of 2010 lows as a major support level).

Main question is of course, if the downtrend is going to continue or not. This will be answered by fundamentals. Apart from the things I've mentioned, Curtis seems to be manipulating it down (which tends to be a bullish sign). I have no other explanation for todays "fluff" PR while the market is waiting for something substantial.

Question to the board: has anyone spoken to the company about the rather old photo material on the Lynas website? The lack of information about the proceeds of the LAMP is either extremely careless or something to really worry about.

regards
Julia


----------



## blackjack

Julia1979 said:


> Don Joe,
> I welcome the ASF requirements as a major difference to other forums, especially Australia's main ramp up base.
> 0.75 is just a personal/psychological target on the way to the .48 region, that is quite obviously tech based (test of 2010 lows as a major support level).
> 
> Main question is of course, if the downtrend is going to continue or not. This will be answered by fundamentals. Apart from the things I've mentioned, Curtis seems to be manipulating it down (which tends to be a bullish sign). I have no other explanation for todays "fluff" PR while the market is waiting for something substantial.
> 
> Question to the board: has anyone spoken to the company about the rather old photo material on the Lynas website? The lack of information about the proceeds of the LAMP is either extremely careless or something to really worry about.
> 
> regards
> Julia




how can Curtis manipulate it down?
is he a major share holder?
Is he busy buying now that its under a dollar?
Is he PO about Crown and now loading up with Lynas?
If so tell me so I can put a big hole in his hull as I have found some issues regarding Crown and the Company Constitution.


----------



## blackjack

blackjack said:


> how can Curtis manipulate it down?
> is he a major share holder?
> Is he busy buying now that its under a dollar?
> Is he PO about Crown and now loading up with Lynas?
> If so tell me so I can put a big hole in his hull as I have found some issues regarding Crown and the Company Constitution.




Julia was on another forum downramping LYC as well
based on nothing really
however as it turns out she was right the SP has tanked
not because of Lynas or the board or the near to market production
but because of GFC2, the Euro, the EU and the downramping story on Moly from JP MORGAN
When Moly went over 100 bucks a share (after months of ramping from all in the USA including the US Senate (critical materials ) it was time for Morgan to tell the market it was over priced. SP then fell and JP re rated it as a buy. Understand of course that JP was the underwriter of Moly. It is possible that it was shorted (another favourite trick of JP) then buy back in and ramp again. 

For those that bought in at 2 bucks buying in again now will average your loss
If NC is not telling fibs then all is on track and sold for 2012 - with more coming.
Also far up on the critical list of materials is NIOBIUM and Crown (owned by Lynas) has bucket loads of it. A VERY VERY valuable asset

2012 if you can hang in there will be a dooooooozy

I hope Julia can get the price down to 75 cents as I will be in boots and all


----------



## Julia1979

blackjack said:


> A VERY VERY valuable asset
> ...
> I hope Julia can get the price down to 75 cents as I will be in boots and all




*You have the wrong idea about investing in general* IMO It's NOT about who is the best manipulator but who is right or wrong. 

You forgot to mention one major reason for the drop: the delay of the LAMP. Where is your statement about the missing information about construction? Why no photos? Why fluff PRs instead of facts? "How can Curtis manipulate it down?" That' just the way to do it!

Lot's of explorers with VERY VERY valuable assets in the ground. Some can manage to dig it out and sell. The ones that fail are falling over economic down phases or more common: greed.
As for NC: Wasn't it smart to sell his shares well above 2$ early this year? He can double or triple his shares now.  He's done that more than once BTW.

regards
Julia


----------



## blackjack

Julia1979 said:


> *You have the wrong idea about investing in general* IMO It's NOT about who is the best manipulator but who is right or wrong.
> 
> You forgot to mention one major reason for the drop: the delay of the LAMP. Where is your statement about the missing information about construction? Why no photos? Why fluff PRs instead of facts? "How can Curtis manipulate it down?" That' just the way to do it!
> 
> Lot's of explorers with VERY VERY valuable assets in the ground. Some can manage to dig it out and sell. The ones that fail are falling over economic down phases or more common: greed.
> As for NC: Wasn't it smart to sell his shares well above 2$ early this year? He can double or triple his shares now.  He's done that more than once BTW.
> 
> regards
> Julia




Julia
show me one LYC statement that says the LAMP is delayed? Just one. If you cannot substantiate your statement then it is misleading and deceptive and action can be taken against you by ASIC. Particularly if you are a share holder with something to gain. You have been warned.


----------



## notting

Rare earth prices have come off quite a bit also which has helped the down movement, how much further they will be allowed to fall is another great unkown overhanging Lynas at present.


----------



## Starcraftmazter

Rares will probably drop further if we head into a depression? I see no reason to buy LYC at the present time.


----------



## RandR

Starcraftmazter said:


> Rares will probably drop further if we head into a depression? I see no reason to buy LYC at the present time.




The increase in prices of RE was always going to be a spike and contract, I think most of the people were expecting them to contract when supply started to come online from the likes of lynas/molycorp etc. Throwing a potential recession into the mix means RE could come down quite considerably. Unless there are supply shocks in the future I see no reason for lynas basket price to head anywhere near back up to $200.


----------



## Julia1979

blackjack said:


> Julia
> show me one LYC statement that says the LAMP is delayed? Just one. If you cannot substantiate your statement then it is misleading and deceptive and action can be taken against you by ASIC. Particularly if you are a share holder with something to gain. You have been warned.




I never said, LYC said the LAMP was delayed. There is NO direct statement yet. But it's quite obvious IMVHO. Indirectly they have confirmed the delay by NOT delivering a waste management plan in August (!) as promised and NOT updating any photo material on their website. If there are NO news, investors have to interpret the silence. *How would you judge the failure to deliver the premiss for the pre operational license?* 

You were the one that said, the LAMP wasn't a political issue in Malaysia. Now look what is happening coming sunday:

http://www.freemalaysiatoday.com/2011/10/05/lynas-plant-10000-to-protest-this-sunday/

Do you really think, the government will just ignore that movement?  
I doubt it. If they don't ignore it, LYC investors are simply suffering from the disadvantages of the location that has been chosen which was one of NCs major mistakes IMO because he simply underestimated the hazards that can arise if you intend to build a plant like that in a highly populated area. 

As stated before: the positive interpretation of recent developments are that news about the proceeds might be held back in order to let the "smart money" back in. The negative interpretation of course is: there is nothing to hold back..


----------



## mr. jeff

Smart money appears to be having a great time with scared investors. Looks like someone has been accumulating - Mitsubishi. 
That Toyota news just gets private investors to sell in the shake out, goes to show how helpful the media is. Probably released whilst the companies with need for REE's were buying.
There will now be less scared investors holding, hopefully enough to see a recovery. For the time being it would seem that the pro's are happy to keep building their holdings at around $1.

 Good luck.


----------



## blackjack

Julia1979 said:


> I never said, LYC said the LAMP was delayed. There is NO direct statement yet. But it's quite obvious IMVHO. Indirectly they have confirmed the delay by NOT delivering a waste management plan in August (!) as promised and NOT updating any photo material on their website. If there are NO news, investors have to interpret the silence. *How would you judge the failure to deliver the premiss for the pre operational license?*
> 
> You were the one that said, the LAMP wasn't a political issue in Malaysia. Now look what is happening coming sunday:
> 
> http://www.freemalaysiatoday.com/2011/10/05/lynas-plant-10000-to-protest-this-sunday/
> 
> 
> 
> 
> Do you really think, the government will just ignore that movement?
> I doubt it. If they don't ignore it, LYC investors are simply suffering from the disadvantages of the location that has been chosen which was one of NCs major mistakes IMO because he simply underestimated the hazards that can arise if you intend to build a plant like that in a highly populated area.
> 
> As stated before: the positive interpretation of recent developments are that news about the proceeds might be held back in order to let the "smart money" back in. The negative interpretation of course is: there is nothing to hold back..




YOU specifically said "the delay of the LAMP" 
PROVE it!!
the LYC 30th Sept 2011 release states otherwise
Like i said read ASIC notice (1) your statements are misleading and if we put your statements from here and from Hotccoper it becomes obvious what you are doing!!!


----------



## blackjack

its hard to believe that MOLY and JP have lead the market by the nose through this notion that MOLY will save the the USA western world with its REE's.

I just love this post that puts Moly fair and square in the BS category

Jack Lifton October 5, 2011 at 12:09 am

    Let me get this straight: in a solvent exchange (SX) plant not yet built, not yet proven in, or run up to capacity after the proving-in bugs are worked out, Molycorp is going to run process leach solution (PLS) from an ore concentrate that it has not yet determined can be produced, with an extraction efficiency that it has not yet determined to be economical – this additional HREE-containing PLS will be run simultaneously or on top of the PLS derived from the Mountain Pass bastnaesite concentrate – which has not yet been run in the new plant. All this in a year.

    The assumption must be that since the old SX plant is creaking along at whatever level – it has been said to be between 1,800 and 5,000 tons of “oxides” per year – then a new one must be able to do its job at an even larger throughput volume and for whatever ore PLS comes along – if it’s running the same process.

    This is complete and utter engineering and chemical nonsense.

    Other than that – it’s a great story.
full link here http://www.techmetalsresearch.com/2...e-of-molycorps-new-heavy-rare-earth-prospect/http://www.techmetalsresearch.com/2011/10/is-this-the-site-of-molycorps-new-heavy-rare-earth-prospect/


----------



## Logique

drlog said:


> Heh, good point - I guess I am trying to be rational. Sorry about that   The good news is, there are some bargains around right now. LYC is one of them in my opinion.



Indeed, I'd be happy to take .89 to 1.20 as a percentage gain - the 'smart' money has done well over the last 5 days. Volume is not terribly supportive of this mini trend however. An unbelievably volatile stock.


----------



## ep20072008

Logique said:


> Indeed, I'd be happy to take .89 to 1.20 as a percentage gain - the 'smart' money has done well over the last 5 days. Volume is not terribly supportive of this mini trend however. An unbelievably volatile stock.




Agree this one really volatile. closing today at Cross.  But i though volume is actually ok.


----------



## Julia1979

blackjack said:


> YOU specifically said "the delay of the LAMP"
> PROVE it!!
> the LYC 30th Sept 2011 release states otherwise
> Like i said read ASIC notice (1) your statements are misleading and if we put your statements from here and from Hotccoper it becomes obvious what you are doing!!!




That is indeed very interesting! 
You are not answering any questions, no arguments, just ridiculous allegations towards those, who speak out, what is quite obvious to me: a delay of the LAMP.

QUESTION: *are we here to argue or to manipulate?*

I've named my arguments. You are welcome to name yours if you have any. :

____________

Any comments on Gerry Taylor becoming "Vice president of finance" 

1979 regards
Julia


----------



## blackjack

Julia1979 said:


> That is indeed very interesting!
> You are not answering any questions, no arguments, just ridiculous allegations towards those, who speak out, what is quite obvious to me: a delay of the LAMP.
> 
> QUESTION: *are we here to argue or to manipulate?*
> 
> I've named my arguments. You are welcome to name yours if you have any. :
> 
> ____________
> 
> Any comments on Gerry Taylor becoming "Vice president of finance"
> 
> 1979 regards
> Julia




- your misleading and deceptive statements made against LYC will be reported to the ASIC


----------



## RandR

blackjack said:


> - your misleading and deceptive statements made against LYC will be reported to the ASIC




Only an epic douche would do so imo.

There is a clear lack of sufficient information in regards to the progress of the lamp by Lynas, particularly in light of the volatility of the market the past few months. Particularly in regard to the importance of the development of the project for Lynas. As an investor one would expect to have relatively up to date information on the project. The failure of Lynas to do this does leave room for questions to be asked imo, and is possibly a contribution to the volatility of the stock.


----------



## Roberto

I support Julia who clearly is a superior investor and a courageous, intelligent blogger. Her posts are always a pleasure and education to read. Thanks Julia.
ps - check out valueinvestor.com - it requires signup which is free - and go to the 7 Apr 11 article on Molycorp by gwb. It makes the case for market oversupply of REEs in the next year or two.


----------



## blackjack

RandR said:


> Only an epic douche would do so imo.
> 
> There is a clear lack of sufficient information in regards to the progress of the lamp by Lynas, particularly in light of the volatility of the market the past few months. Particularly in regard to the importance of the development of the project for Lynas. As an investor one would expect to have relatively up to date information on the project. The failure of Lynas to do this does leave room for questions to be asked imo, and is possibly a contribution to the volatility of the stock.




you only need to see the blatant ramping by JP MORGAN on MOLY then when all the sheeple bought in they put out an announcement to say MOLY is overpriced - perfectly executed shorting of the market. Then when the over 100$ Moly went down JP then announces its fairly priced.

Moly at over 100 bucks and Lynas at 2 bucks - give me a break PLEEEEEEEASE

if you cant understand this logic then i am lost for words.

The LAMP is being built - poor old MOLY is using tailings from before - its years behind.

If you add in the EU and USA problems then you have the perfect storm for the shareprice of LYNAS being over sold. 

I am happy guys as I am happily accumulating a stock thats at pole position and will win this race hands down


----------



## skc

blackjack said:


> Moly at over 100 bucks and Lynas at 2 bucks - give me a break PLEEEEEEEASE
> 
> if you cant understand this logic then i am lost for words.




How about the fact that they have different number of shares on issue? 

MCP 84m
LYC 1714m


----------



## blackjack

skc said:


> How about the fact that they have different number of shares on issue?
> 
> MCP 84m
> LYC 1714m




1.24 vs 35.86 doesnt add up

plus http://www.mineweb.com/mineweb/view/mineweb/en/page72102?oid=137315&sn=Detail&pid=92730

go figure


----------



## Starcraftmazter

blackjack said:


> Moly at over 100 bucks and Lynas at 2 bucks - give me a break PLEEEEEEEASE
> 
> if you cant understand this logic then i am lost for words.
> 
> The LAMP is being built - poor old MOLY is using tailings from before - its years behind.
> 
> If you add in the EU and USA problems then you have the perfect storm for the shareprice of LYNAS being over sold.
> 
> I am happy guys as I am happily accumulating a stock thats at pole position and will win this race hands down




While I don't particularly disagree with any of this, I still think LYC presents far far too much risk at the moment. I can see a set of events which will have this stock down much more, quite easily.

They really need to announce what is going on with the LAMP, until then I wouldn't touch it with a 10 foot pole. If it is delayed, then great - an opportunity to buy in / top up. But if it's something worse....


----------



## blackjack

Starcraftmazter said:


> While I don't particularly disagree with any of this, I still think LYC presents far far too much risk at the moment. I can see a set of events which will have this stock down much more, quite easily.
> 
> They really need to announce what is going on with the LAMP, until then I wouldn't touch it with a 10 foot pole. If it is delayed, then great - an opportunity to buy in / top up. But if it's something worse....






Lynas Corporation Ltd, which has made a direct capital investment of RM1.318 billion in its Lynas Advanced Materials Plant (LAMP) as of Sept 31, expects an incremental investment of approximately RM200 million.

In a statement today, the company said the incremental investment would be
from two material suppliers.

"Upstream to the rare earth processing at the LAMP in Gebeng, Pahang, the
plant already has two material suppliers already investing in building and
expanding their operations to supply to LAMP," Lynas said.


Of the RM1.318 billion capital investment, Lynas had invested RM618 million
in Malaysia under Phase One, of which RM235 million was awarded to Kuantan-based contractors.

The current investment enables an initial production capacity of 11,000T
Rare Earth Oxide (REO) per annum of separated Rare Earth products.

Under Phase Two, an additional RM700 million has been allocated for
expansion now underway. "Near to 50 per cent of this investment is spent in
Malaysia for subcontracting requirements and materials purchase while
approximately 40 per cent is for the purchase of equipment and technical
expertise offshore.

"Undertaken by lead contractor Toyo-Thai Corporation Public Limited, these
investments will gear up to an increased production capacity of 22,000T REO per annum," it said.

On human capital investments, the company said Lynas Malaysia Sdn Bhd's
current payroll already stood at RM26 million per annum. It said Lynas Malaysia is fully manned and managed by Malaysians except for
the four Rare Earth operations experts from China, and the LAMP creates over 35 skilled permanent jobs.

Apart from Lynas' direct investment, the LAMP would create up to an
additional 500 indirect jobs for service providers and contractors, the company
said.

It added that as the first new rare earth supplier outside China, the LAMP
could position Malaysia as the destination of choice for associated
manufacturers of high technology products looking for a base for their
manufacturing operations. -- Bernama

Read more: Lynas sees RM200m incremental investment http://www.btimes.com.my/Current_Ne...111012181247/Article/index_html#ixzz1ae65MlfZ


----------



## KTrade

A local Malaysian politician indicates start of phase 2 in this article http://www.themalaysianinsider.com/...nas-sending-rare-earth-to-kuantan-this-month/


----------



## PinguPingu

> ...As of yesterday, local regulators Atomic Energy Licensing Board (AELB) said that it has received the waste management plan but has yet to analyse it.




So there's an answer to everyone saying Lynas doesn't even have a plan.


----------



## smokeycastle

http://www.thesundaily.my/news/177021 said:
			
		

> KUALA LUMPUR (Oct 13, 2011): Fuziah Salleh (PKR-Kuantan) said the first shipment of radioactive ore bound for the Lynas Advanced Material Plant (LAMP) is expected to be shipped from Mount Weld, Australia by the month's end.
> 
> Expressing her concerns, Fuziah, who is also the party’s vice president, said that she received a report that the radioactive ore or Rare Earth Ore (REO) will arrive in Kuantan by end of October.
> 
> ...
> 
> Also disclosing that Lynas had threatened to sue her for defamation for filling a report with the Australian Securities Commission, Fuziah said she will continue to pursue this issue till it is resolved.




http://www.thesundaily.my/news/177021

Very interesting stuff right now.


----------



## dazdingo

smokeycastle said:


> http://www.thesundaily.my/news/177021
> 
> Very interesting stuff right now.




Read this one for the full story...

http://www.freemalaysiatoday.com/2011/10/13/radioactive-ore-to-reach-kuantan-this-month/

Lynas meanwhile said that Fuziah was wrong in stating that Lynas was about to bring rare earth ore to Kuantan later this month.

“Her statements are factually inaccurate and misleading, and Lynas needs to clarify this.

“Lynas has no intention to export any rare earth ore to Kuantan and under no circumstance would do so without the requisite approvals, in this case the pre-operational licence for the Lynas Advanced Materials Plant (LAMP),” said Lynas Malaysia Sdn Bhd MD Mashal Ahmad in a statement.

He said that Fuziah’s allegation was factually incorrect, ill informed, misleading and damaging to Lynas and the regulators.

“The MPs latest claim casts doubt on her integrity,” added Mashal.


----------



## Julia1979

dazdingo said:


> Read this one for the full story...
> 
> http://www.freemalaysiatoday.com/2011/10/13/radioactive-ore-to-reach-kuantan-this-month/
> 
> Lynas meanwhile said that Fuziah was wrong in stating that Lynas was about to bring rare earth ore to Kuantan later this month.
> 
> “Her statements are factually inaccurate and misleading, and Lynas needs to clarify this.
> 
> “Lynas has no intention to export any rare earth ore to Kuantan and under no circumstance would do so without the requisite approvals, in this case the pre-operational licence for the Lynas Advanced Materials Plant (LAMP),” said Lynas Malaysia Sdn Bhd MD Mashal Ahmad in a statement.
> 
> He said that Fuziah’s allegation was factually incorrect, ill informed, misleading and damaging to Lynas and the regulators.
> 
> “The MPs latest claim casts doubt on her integrity,” added Mashal.





sounds like dirty biz to me.

Interesting enough Lynas seems to have handed in a waste management plan and obviously no intention to make that public. Didn't we have that before? 

A wise man once said "making mistakes is no problem, not learning from them is a big one"

I wonder if NC is able to understand that quote 

regards
Julia


----------



## smokeycastle

At the moment lynas shareprice seems to be more affected by macroeconomic issues than by any actual news on the LAMP.

Even it's massive fall in price was due to Molycorp being downgraded.


----------



## notting

Julia1979 said:


> sounds like dirty biz to me.




China is the real dirty business in all this.
More blatant  market manipulation.
http://www.cnbc.com/id/44953947

Should be good for Lynas.


----------



## 6figures

notting said:


> China is the real dirty business in all this.
> More blatant  market manipulation.
> http://www.cnbc.com/id/44953947
> 
> Should be good for Lynas.




not so much for the share price? jsut too ka massive dive ... again... 

reasoning?


----------



## notting

6figures said:


> reasoning?




Macro panic attack on mining due to a massive .2 miss by China GDP!  
It's all over sell everything kind of day.


----------



## lenny

I'd say insiders have got a sniff the that their license to import rare earths to malaysia could be in doubt.

If so this will test its lows for sure.


----------



## ep20072008

LYC  trading halt ?  can not see any annoucement . CBA account has stopped quoting price.


----------



## ep20072008

ep20072008 said:


> LYC  trading halt ?  can not see any annoucement . CBA account has stopped quoting price.





coumputer must not working properly.  It is back.


----------



## lenny

Looks as if the smart money started to leave the building today!

Test of the lows could be on the cards here.


----------



## Julia1979

notting said:


> China is the real dirty business in all this.
> More blatant  market manipulation.
> http://www.cnbc.com/id/44953947
> 
> Should be good for Lynas.




Agree. China seems to have no interest in prices falling "down to earth" @ this time. But that is something outside the square of small investors. We shouldn't complain about that because a lot of us have been able to cash in big rewards in the last two years, right? 

The manipulation that caused big losses for the majority of Lynas shareholders is done by a CEO that is still playing his typical banking tricks chasing the SP up and down by intransparantcy. Just imagine how easy it would have been to keep the sp in a much more reasonable range somewhere around 1 AUD. Instead the focus was put on exploding basket prices with no contract information causing the sp to act like a early stage explorer with a Mcap of almost 4 billion $ followed by a dramatic decline from 2,x to 0.8x.
No wonder people show up here that don't understand the very basics of valuation, comparing the price of a stock with 84m shares with LYC, still counting @ 1714m shares. 

Disclosure: I covered all my short position tonight. 

@AB
having mentioned "testing the lows" twice within 24h sounds very much like you are looking for an entry 

regards
Julia


----------



## 6figures

Julia1979 said:


> Agree. China seems to have no interest in prices falling "down to earth" @ this time. But that is something outside the square of small investors. We shouldn't complain about that because a lot of us have been able to cash in big rewards in the last two years, right?
> 
> The manipulation that caused big losses for the majority of Lynas shareholders is done by a CEO that is still playing his typical banking tricks chasing the SP up and down by intransparantcy. Just imagine how easy it would have been to keep the sp in a much more reasonable range somewhere around 1 AUD. Instead the focus was put on exploding basket prices with no contract information causing the sp to act like a early stage explorer with a Mcap of almost 4 billion $ followed by a dramatic decline from 2,x to 0.8x.
> No wonder people show up here that don't understand the very basics of valuation, comparing the price of a stock with 84m shares with LYC, still counting @ 1714m shares.
> 
> Disclosure: I covered all my short position tonight.
> 
> @AB
> having mentioned "testing the lows" twice within 24h sounds very much like you are looking for an entry
> 
> regards
> Julia




who r u shorting with


----------



## Logique

The US ADS followed last night, LYSDY down 0.14 or -10.8% 
A tough stock for the average retail investor to follow.

http://www.theaustralian.com.au/bus...-licence-refusal/story-fn91v9q3-1226171122452
*Lynas slumps on Malaysian rumour of import licence refusal * 
by: Sarah-Jane Tasker From: The Australian October 20, 2011


----------



## notting

Julia1979 said:


> Disclosure: I covered all my short position tonight.
> Julia




Clearly bullish.


----------



## Chasero

Shorting lynas today


----------



## Joe Blow

notting said:


> Clearly bullish.




Why?



Chasero said:


> Shorting lynas today




Why?

Can both of you please elaborate? Enquiring minds want to know why.

More content would be appreciated.


----------



## Chasero

Joe Blow said:


> Why?
> 
> 
> 
> Why?
> 
> Can both of you please elaborate? Enquiring minds want to know why.
> 
> More content would be appreciated.




Malaysian government article regarding protests.

Plus negative lead from Wall St means lynas is heading south. (most likely, obviously I am taking a risk!)


----------



## Chasero

Chasero said:


> Malaysian government article regarding protests.
> 
> Plus negative lead from Wall St means lynas is heading south. (most likely, obviously I am taking a risk!)




Lost brokerage fees, didn't make much today


----------



## skc

It is clear that LYC was constructing the plant in Malaysia before it has all the permits in place. What was the discussion/company announcements regarding that when they first chose Malaysia as their production base? Were there some assurance / hints from the gov't there to say it will most likely be granted the necessary approvals? Did the gov't change their mind? Or was there too much one-way wishful thinking on part of LYC? 

Anyone knows the history well enough to comment?

In the interest of bringing forward production/revenue, such parallel activity is probably understandable. But the risk is of course they don't get some important piece of permit and they have no plan B or money left. How well were those risks communicated to the shareholders?


----------



## ep20072008

skc said:


> It is clear that LYC was constructing the plant in Malaysia before it has all the permits in place. What was the discussion/company announcements regarding that when they first chose Malaysia as their production base? Were there some assurance / hints from the gov't there to say it will most likely be granted the necessary approvals? Did the gov't change their mind? Or was there too much one-way wishful thinking on part of LYC?
> 
> Anyone knows the history well enough to comment?
> 
> In the interest of bringing forward production/revenue, such parallel activity is probably understandable. But the risk is of course they don't get some important piece of permit and they have no plan B or money left. How well were those risks communicated to the shareholders?





I do not know the history very well. but I would be very suprise that is only one-way wishful thinking LYC when they decided to spend so much money in a country.  Saw protest thing, it looks to me more like manipulation and encouraging by someone as it is closing to production.  my evil  thought is probably good for local governement to negotiate with LYC


----------



## PinguPingu

I'm guessing that if Lynas has invested so much in building the infrastructure and hiring personnel that they are quite confident of getting the permit. 

Perhaps they are also banking on the fact that if the permit is denied, Malaysia may not be seen to be a safe place for FDI and that is something the Government probably doesn't want. 


Information provided to shareholders is poor in general.


----------



## notting

It's just a political game.
The protests are China backed, sponsored and fueled.
The protests only started once China was denied the right to purchase Lynas and maintain their monopoly on rare earths.
Just like the protests outside the Hong Kong Apple store that claimed to be protesting against conditions and pay in Chinese owned and operated factories that happened to make apple parts!!  These China orchestrated protests occurred as an immediate counter response to USA footage showing fake apple stores in China!!!

Lynas did get the nod from Malasian MPs they couldn't have even bought the land without that.

Now the MPs are aware of the political risks because the Chinese are managing to propaganderise the notion to the locals, to some degree, that Lynas will generate nuclear waist and destroy the local community. If you look into the grievances behind the protests you will find they are simply headline grabbing unfounded rubbish.

The Malaisan MPs are well aware of what is going on and will allow the project to continue, however *due to the politicizing of the issues* they must* look like* they are playing hard ball with Lynas and demanding environmental plans etc etc before they can go ahead in order to appease the people who are being fed lies on a daily basis by Chinese sponsored apposition to the project.

The *real risk* for lynas that people should be focusing on is the reality of making the whole thing work as it is with any new mining venture, going from plan to reality is the hardest step - often with some pretty savage reality bites! 

The last time China manipulated rare earth prices, about 8 months ago Lynas shares pretty much doubled!!
China's doing it again so if the global financial system is not destroyed over the weekend things should be pretty good for the short term LYC price action!! IMO


----------



## skc

notting said:


> The protests are China backed, sponsored and fueled.
> The protests only started once China was denied the right to purchase Lynas and maintain their monopoly on rare earths.




Do you have any evidence for this claim or you are just making it up as you go?



notting said:


> Just like the protests outside the Hong Kong Apple store that claimed to be protesting against conditions and pay in Chinese owned and operated factories that happened to make apple parts!!  These China orchestrated protests occurred as an immediate counter response to USA footage showing fake apple stores in China!!!




And evidence for this? The factories were Taiwanese businesses and there were a host of suicides amongst the workers. The protest were both against the factory and against Apple (for not caring enough). How does that constitute a counter response to fake Apple stores?


----------



## notting

You need to think more deeply about it.  
The suicides are all over the place in Chinese factories and have been for decades not just Apple!!!! for valid reasons, they are Chinese run brutal slave houses!!  Workers are abused, raped by the masters etc ect. They are called foreigners even though they are Chinese because they don't have the specific in the club card etc  The workers used to not get paid at all!  They were kept like prisoners. Just fed and given a bed.  It was better than starving on the streets!

The authorities choose to go to the media and make a global noise about it like that did with Apple or as they did with Honda earlier when the Chinese were making moves in Japanese sea waters as it suits them and make out it is the foreigners abusing Chinese.  They will peddle it all over their state controlled local news in that light too, even though it's the Chinese authorities  and their lack of any kind of care for workers who set the whole thing up!!
It doesn't happen in free countries because there are laws that are largely abided by against it.

If I told you China could organise at the drop of a hat 10,000 strong protest here in Australia by paying *it's people* here $300 each to participate and act brutally toward a pack of Ausies would you believe me?  Would they get away with it?  Would our media report it accurately? What do you think.


----------



## skc

notting said:


> You need to think more deeply about it.




It's not about how deeply one thinks about it.

What if any evidence do you have? Ignore the Apple part, just answer your Lynas claim since we are on the LYC thread.

I don't doubt that China _may _be capable of doing it, but I also don't doubt the Martians could have done it too. 

So do you have evidences? Or are you just putting forth some theories?


----------



## notting

What I mean by think deeply about it is this - 

For investment purposes, the point is you can see for yourself whether the claims against Lynas that fuel the protests are legitimate or just bazaar unfounded scare mongering driven by ??????  *doesn't really matter* once you see bazaar unfounded scare mongering!

That's enough to get the picture from an investment point of view.

As an aside:  
One of the first things the Chinese will ask a 'free worlder' for who dares speak out about them is - 'Where is your evidence?,' then sue you when you cannot legally prove it because the Chinese control the evidence!!  
There is no free speech, you can be imprisoned just for listening to subversive talk in China.  They will shoot you if you try to escape even with no evidence they don't even want the general picture to get out.

If you provide some fragment of evidence, in the free world, (they will just silence you if you are in China),that you have managed to gather from someone who has put their life and family etc at risk to get it to you, the Chinese authorities, having been caught out, will then say,  "Oh yes, we are investigating this matter," as if they had nothing to do with it and it was some independent free Chinese person or corrupt official or company doing something 'illegal'.  Little will then come of it.  
The person and their family providing evidence will vanish!!

Looking at the dynamics and the environment is a little easier than coming up with state controlled evidence.
Looking into the motives, capabilities, players and history paints a picture.

To repeat - *For investment purposes*, the point is you can see for yourself whether the *claims against Lynas that fuel the protests* are legitimate or just bazaar unfounded scare mongering by some *highly motivated forces that have a vested interest in attempting to control rare earths*.


----------



## drlog

Skc and Notting,

Very interesting debate! I think both of you make excellent points. While Notting's theory sounds plausible and makes sense, I agree that more evidence would be useful.

The way I see it, China's initial motives were not to have complete control of rare earths but to have a large chunk of a difficult to enter highly priced market. Of course, after rare  earth prices have gone up so much, that plan may have changed. I guess this is one of those things we will never know for sure but if you are right notting, then LAMP will go ahead. SKC, what is your alternate theory? Just that the Malaysian's are legitimately concerned about Thorium contamination?


----------



## skc

notting said:


> What I mean by think deeply about it is this -
> 
> For investment purposes, the point is you can see for yourself whether the claims against Lynas that fuel the protests are legitimate or just bazaar unfounded scare mongering driven by ??????  *doesn't really matter* once you see bazaar unfounded scare mongering!




Instead of an essay you could have just said "No. There are no evidence and it's just a theory." 

You have a view that Chinese are evil doers in the world and you fit theories all over this forum to suit that view. While you are entitle to your views and more than welcome to put forward theories, it would be nice to quantify them as such, and test them with some evidence every now and then.



drlog said:


> Skc and Notting,
> 
> Very interesting debate! I think both of you make excellent points. While Notting's theory sounds plausible and makes sense, I agree that more evidence would be useful.
> 
> The way I see it, China's initial motives were not to have complete control of rare earths but to have a large chunk of a difficult to enter highly priced market. Of course, after rare  earth prices have gone up so much, that plan may have changed. I guess this is one of those things we will never know for sure but if you are right notting, then LAMP will go ahead. SKC, what is your alternate theory? Just that the Malaysian's are legitimately concerned about Thorium contamination?




Alternate theory? I wouldn't put Notting's theory as the mainstream... 

There are probably simpler ways of explaining this. I don't know much about Malaysian politics, but I am guessing it is pretty much the same as anywhere else... someone not in power will pick on the decisions by someone in power, while both sides will back popular opinion where it suits them. I am also certain that the local residents should be concerned - whether it is scientifically grounded or not - as much as people here are concerned about coal seam gas in their backyards.

So concerned people looking at politicians for help, and those politicians are only too happy to help in order to make political gains (as long as they don't have LYC shares I guess). You really don't need a Chinese conspiracy theory to explain it. And a Chinese conspiracy theory certainly doesn't help with an investment decision - even if the Chinese are behind it does it make it more or less likely to succeed?

As I asked earlier, I am interested in knowing what steps LYC took to address the regulatory risks prior to construction, and if LYC had a plan B. It is difficult to predict the outcome of a regulatory issue, but knowing what they've done previously can help frame the probability of the outcomes, while knowing if they have a plan B can help with estimating a floor to the downside.


----------



## Starcraftmazter

Governments (including developed countries) fund protests and entire revolutions all the time (not always publicly), so such a thing occurring would be nothing new.

This too seems consistent with Chinese desires to corner the RE market.


----------



## smokeycastle

Whilst global market dynamics and the politics of government funded grey ops is a delightful topic to talk about I dont think it really adds much to the conversation with regards to lynas. Sure these things affect share price but that is true of most stocks.


----------



## KTrade

Kuantan residents preparing for a standoff

http://www.themalaysianinsider.com/...ts-threaten-sit-in-if-rare-earth-ore-arrives/


----------



## Derrick

something is not right here.

is lynas telling the truth... or they are lying?

http://www.themalaysianinsider.com/...says-rejected-lynas-proposal-wants-more-info/


----------



## Logique

Yes we're getting two different stories, very tiresome, and testing investors patience. The US ADS slumped overnight, so it's clear what US investors think.


----------



## lenny

Logique, Hang in there mate!

LYC has been putting in a bottom over the last 6 weeks don't throw the towl in at the bottom.

One thing about LYC is that it trends hard in both direction i'd say risks are to the upside here.


----------



## notting

When the rubber hits the road the true quality of the management comes out.  
The first skid is a delay, though slight, is enough to inspire caution. 
You don't want it to be backed up by another and another.  
That will generate a decent leg down.  
So far management is scoring below par! 
If it get's going on the adjusted time frame and they get the approvals, the upside is far greater from here.


----------



## Julia1979

notting said:


> When the rubber hits the road the true quality of the management comes out.
> The first skid is a delay, though slight, is enough to inspire caution.
> You don't want it to be backed up by another and another.
> That will generate a decent leg down.
> So far management is scoring below par!
> If it get's going on the adjusted time frame and they get the approvals, the upside is far greater from here.




below par? Yeah, just like Goldfinger in that old 007 movie. I bet he was "below par" when he missed that last crucial put.. 

Talking about up-or downside potential: the company is still valued at 2.000.000.000 AUD = two billion while having confirmed the delay of production to the first half of 2012 with falling basket prices and escalating protests.

So, what is the reason for the delay? Construction flaws? Maybe. Missing license? Yes. But the main problem has a political cause IMVHO. If so, the company should higher the acceptance among the population in Malaysia. Has this happened?

Regards
Julia


----------



## Derrick

things are getting worst...

now the trade minister in m'sia is accusing lynas for jumping the gun... not sure how lynas operation in m'sia in the future is going to be if they keep pissing their government

http://www.themalaysianinsider.com/...ping-gun-over-rare-earth-refinery-start-date/


----------



## PinguPingu

I wouldn't call that "pissing off", he's just playing politics:



> Mustapa was accused of being a “Lynas spokesman” by Kuantan MP Fuziah Salleh last week.




That's why you're seeing a bit more of a "hard line" with lynas. I'm not going to go as far as to say that Malaysia needs Lynas, but they do need to show to international companies they are a country that welcomes foreign investment without placing undue restrictions and difficulties. That being said I believe the 11 recommendations set out by the IAEA are not unreasonable and lynas needs to communicate more in how it is going about achieving them.


----------



## lenny

Derrick, 

The Malaysian government have to be seen to be doing the right thing.

 At the end of the day the malaysian government want Lynas in Malaysia or they wouldn't of offered them 12 years tax free carrot to get them there.

Plant 80% complete and pre op licence could be granted in the next month or so, ticks in both of these boxs and *SP* will be at least *$2.75.*


----------



## Mofra

lenny said:


> Plant 80% complete and pre op licence could be granted in the next month or so, ticks in both of these boxs and *SP* will be at least *$2.75.*



On what basis do you have $2.75 as a price target?
Genuine question. Cheers.


----------



## lenny

Its Roger Montgomerys intrinsic value for LYC when it starts production in phase 1 at a ree basket price of $60.

Ree Basket price is around $120 atm.

Yes conservative.


----------



## Mofra

Cheers Lenny, much obliged - have a new blog to read up on too


----------



## KTrade

My feel is that Lynas will be successful on the 4th attempt

http://www.themalaysianinsider.com/...ds-later-aelb-says-lynas-still-non-compliant/


----------



## Logique

Can well understand the frustration of the Malaysian government. Who's running the company PR at Lynas?  If I was a holder, I'd be saying to Lynas - what about a course of 'shut the hell up'.



> http://www.themalaysianinsider.com/...ds-later-aelb-says-lynas-still-non-compliant/
> International Trade and Industry Minister Datuk Seri Mustapha Mohamad has already slammed Lynas for pre-empting the government by repeatedly projecting start dates for the plant being built in the Gebeng industrial zone.
> 
> “They have no business to pre-empt the (Atomic Energy Licensing) board. No business at all to issue these kind of statements and we have reprimanded them,” Mustapa told The Malaysian Insider in an interview last week.


----------



## lenny

Lynas says LAMP nearing completion.

Lynas continues to put ticks in the boxs worth a read.
http://www.finnewsnetwork.com.au/archives/finance_news_network19217.html


----------



## Logique

Although there are reports that the stock is being lent out for shorting, the traded volume is steadily declining.

Two articles that will encourage holders: http://www.nst.com.my/local/general/lynas-aiming-for-licence-1.7965,  and:  







> http://www.freemalaysiatoday.com/2011/11/20/pahang-mb-lynas-plant-is-not-harmful/
> “The plant is not harmful as it is built only for processing purposes. The government will not endanger the people’s life.
> 
> “I will not let people die because they are the ones who gave us the mandate.
> 
> “Lynas is not an issue but it is being played up by the opposition, particularly PKR and the DAP, and Kuantan MP Fuziah Salleh,” he [Adnan Yaakob] told reporters after attending the Nestle World Walking Day at Taman Gelora here today.



Disclosure: not a holder.


----------



## skyQuake

Logique said:


> Although there are reports that the stock is being lent out for shorting, the traded volume is steadily declining.




Extra stock?

Theres always been plenty of borrow available in Lynas


----------



## drlog

Looking at their latest announcement to expand the mt Weld processing plant - it seems as though they have complete confidence in Malaysia and are looking at growing future operations. Either they are right (and starting LAMP will not be a problem) or they are completely deluded!

Thoughts?


----------



## KTrade

Lynas full page ads

http://www.themalaysianinsider.com/...es-newspaper-ads-to-defend-rare-earths-plant/


----------



## KTrade

AELB sought public views on temporary operating licence
http://thestar.com.my/news/story.asp?file=/2012/1/1/nation/20120101123130&sec=nation


----------



## pixel

Once China's bid to gain control of Australian RE miners was quashed by the FIRB, it had to always be expected they wouldn't simply roll over and let the monopoly slip out of their hands. Why give in if a little scare-mongering will bring willing helpers out of the greenery! See how well it worked in Greenland.


----------



## drlog

So they have announced a "temporary operating licence" for the LAMP. I would consider this to be "good news" considering the current market price is around $100 (according to the lynas website).

But the share price is down in line with the market...?

Oh well - we shall see. Thoughts anyone?


----------



## danbradster

drlog said:


> So they have announced a "temporary operating licence" for the LAMP. I would consider this to be "good news" considering the current market price is around $100 (according to the lynas website).
> 
> But the share price is down in line with the market...?
> 
> Oh well - we shall see. Thoughts anyone?




They don't have a temporary operating license, re-read the announcement.  They say that something positive might happen around 30 January.


----------



## drlog

danbradster said:


> They don't have a temporary operating license, re-read the announcement.  They say that something positive might happen around 30 January.




Wow - I'm so stupid!  Serves me right for skim reading...

Thanks


----------



## laurie

danbradster said:


> They don't have a temporary operating license, re-read the announcement.  They say that something positive might happen around 30 January.




yeah that the temporary license will be granted on the 30th Jan after its tabled in cabinet for a period of 2 years


----------



## Starcraftmazter

laurie said:


> yeah that the temporary license will be granted on the 30th Jan after its tabled in cabinet for a period of 2 years




Are you saying the license is 2 years or implying that they will be taking 2 years to decide on it


----------



## lenny

Starcraftmazter said:


> Are you saying the license is 2 years or implying that they will be taking 2 years to decide on it




The temporary license will most likely be issued a few days after the 30th of Jan which is needed to ramp up production and final commissioning of stage 1.

The full license will come some time in a two year period after the temporary license is issued for stage 1 when stage 2 is completed and provided the commissioning of stage 1 goes to plan.

Hope this helps.


----------



## Starcraftmazter

lenny said:


> The temporary license will most likely be issued a few days after the 30th of Jan which is needed to ramp up production and final commissioning of stage 1.
> 
> The full license will come some time in a two year period after the temporary license is issued for stage 1 when stage 2 is completed and provided the commissioning of stage 1 goes to plan.
> 
> Hope this helps.




So are you saying that the temporary licence will be 2 years in length, or is the time-frame entirely arbitrary and up to the government/regulators?


----------



## lenny

Starcraftmazter said:


> So are you saying that the temporary licence will be 2 years in length, or is the time-frame entirely arbitrary and up to the government/regulators?




The temporary license will be granted by the Malaysian government but LYC has to satisfy the AELB.

The way I read the latest Ann is that the AElB is satisfied with the application, just needs to follow the process of informing locals and letting them have their say.

So yes the time of 2 years is just ball park, but the full license obviously can't be 
issued until stage 2 is completed. IMO it's conservative!

Main point is that cash will start rolling in under the temp license if it is granted.


----------



## Starcraftmazter

lenny said:


> The way I read the latest Ann is that the AElB is satisfied with the application, just needs to follow the process of informing locals and letting them have their say.




Is that a formality though or will they deny the application based on local sentiment? Of course as we all know it is not that great.


----------



## danbradster

Starcraftmazter said:


> Is that a formality though or will they deny the application based on local sentiment? Of course as we all know it is not that great.




It is minority sentiment rather than local sentiment.  One would expect that science would win over minority sentiment...


----------



## KTrade

Decision on Lynas licence may be postponed:

http://www.freemalaysiatoday.com/2012/01/12/decision-on-lynas-licence-may-be-postponed/


----------



## Smurf1976

danbradster said:


> It is minority sentiment rather than local sentiment.  One would expect that science would win over minority sentiment...



Every time I've heard that sentiment regarding environment versus development in Australia the outcome has been the reverse. Minority sentiment wins out over science practically every time. I don't know what happens in Malaysia, but that's the track record here in Australia.


----------



## Starcraftmazter

You'd think if it was clearly within the guidelines there wouldn't be many things to talk about further...


----------



## lenny

Today's close looks pretty important!

Looks ripe for a shake out ATM.


----------



## notting

Molycorps had a bit of a spike recently, after a pretty bad year mind you.
LYC has failed to follow the spike thus far, waiting for that second skid - it's all up to you management!? Feels dangerous just being in this thread


----------



## skc

With the 30 Jan deadline looming, the chart is telling me "Stay the hell out". 

How dead is this 30 Jan deadline anyway? As it is a political process, can it be delayed further? 

If the news is bad, 70c may offer some support followed by 50c. If the news is good, it will blast off above $1.20 in a few minutes. Still.... the chart says to me avoid for now. 

On hindsight, we will either be saying "The chart knows everything" or "Efficient market hypothesis my ar$e".


----------



## lenny

skc said:


> View attachment 45798
> 
> 
> How dead is this 30 Jan deadline anyway? As it is a political process, can it be delayed further?




Pretty crucial imo SKC, theres no reason why the decision can't be delayed especially with Malaysian elections on the horizon.

TA is saying this stock is on its way to test 85 cents.

 FA is saying if the POL is granted this stock will be over 2 bucks.

There are alot of people stuck in this stock sitting on big losses delaying the POL could be the straw that brakes the camels back especially when the SP heads south.


----------



## 6figures

Increase in Mt Weld Resource Estimate for the Central Lanthanide Deposit and Duncan Deposit

● The Mineral Resource estimate for Mount Weld is now 23.9 million tonnes, at an average grade of 7.9% REO, for a total of 1.9 million tonnes REO. This represents a 37% increase versus the previous Resource estimate announced in September 2010 and a 34% increase in contained REO. This Resource is comprised of the Central Lanthanide Deposit and the Duncan Deposit.

● The Resource estimate for the Central Lanthanide Deposit has increased by 51% to 14.9 million tonnes, at an average grade of 9.8% REO, for a total of 1.5 million tonnes REO. This represents a 38% increase in contained REO.

● The Resource estimate for the Duncan Deposit has increased by 18% to 9.0 million tonnes, at an average grade of 4.8% REO, for a total of 431,600 tonnes REO. This also represents an increase of 18% in contained REO.

● Preliminary process test work on the Duncan deposit continues.

 May spark a few buyers, minor spike in share price, investors these days are very reactionary, looking at a 3% jump today imo.

Thoughts?

Extracted: https://www.belldirect.com.au/file.type?type=3&id=815148


----------



## notting

6figures said:


> Increase in Mt Weld Resource Estimate for the Central Lanthanide Deposit and Duncan Deposit




Irreleveant, is the word that comes to mind.

Rare earths are everywhere. It's all about how this thing is managed. 
So far below par.


----------



## payshense

notting said:


> Irreleveant, is the word that comes to mind.
> 
> Rare earths are everywhere. It's all about how this thing is managed.
> So far below par.




would you care to elaborate? 

as although the outcome of LYC moving forward, has become a political/protest agenda.
i would think that such an upgrade in resource size has everything to do with short term price movement as was suggested earlier in this thread.


----------



## notting

payshense said:


> i would think that such an upgrade in resource size has everything to do with short term price movement as was suggested earlier in this thread.



Of course, and they make great shorting opportunities when they start to splutter and fade which normally takes around 3 days.

So far they are late! It's a hard kind of thing to produce, I'm told.
I'm rootin for em to stick it to China, but don't like the fact the CEO sold out or how Molycorp who are already producing have been going.
Net Revenue of $138 million
39% net revenue growth over Q2, 2011
SP of $131.91 kg, 75% increase over Q2, 2011
63.4% Consolidated Gross Margin
73% growth for operating income over Q2, 2011
With all that great news the stock has tanked savagely!
You wouldn't want less than stella results!! If this is the best Moly can do in this environment upside seems LED like as it's hardly being cheered by the market even with all the China producers being held back by the murderous communist Chinese regime inflating prices to try to harm US military by making more expense for it and using rare earths themselves to assist local production of electronics and making it more expensive for others.


----------



## lenny

On a technical sense the gap at $1.27 got filled today but has left a gap down at $1.075.

My guess would be that the SM that bought around a $1 would selling out to those that want to speculate on POL decision atm.


----------



## payshense

Hi Notting, 

Thanks for your detailed reply. i am hoping on a positive result from the upcoming decision on POL. I am uncertain whether to continue to trade LYC on daily sentiment. Or to now (having sold out of LYC on Friday), sit and wait for the decision. I figure if I wait, at worst I may miss out on a small % of a rise, on POL being granted. As opposed to the risk of being stuck on a rapidly falling LYC share price should POL be declined. Now waiting on release of 'funding transaction' news


----------



## skc

payshense said:


> Hi Notting,
> 
> Thanks for your detailed reply. i am hoping on a positive result from the upcoming decision on POL. I am uncertain whether to continue to trade LYC on daily sentiment. Or to now (having sold out of LYC on Friday), sit and wait for the decision. I figure if I wait, at worst I may miss out on a small % of a rise, on POL being granted. As opposed to the risk of being stuck on a rapidly falling LYC share price should POL be declined. Now waiting on release of 'funding transaction' news




If the POL is granted I doubt it will be a small % rise... 

The funding trasnaction is a bit worrisome. Getting more capital now may be perceived as a lack of confidence in generating revenue / obtaining POL.


----------



## notting

Seems like cynacle timing giving they announce an upgrade in resources let the stock run into and with that a little, then pull a trading holt on likely funding that could be dilutive or expensive!


----------



## 6figures

Market update:

Lynas secures long-term funding and provides market update for Phase 1 of the Lynas Advanced Materials Plant in Malaysia
HIGHLIGHTS
● US$225 million to be raised through convertible bonds issue secures long-term low cost funding and enables retirement of unused working capital facility
● New strategic cornerstone investor
● Updated construction timetable and Phase 1 completion costs
● First feed to kiln and first production in Q2 2012, subject to regulatory compliance and issuance of the pre-operating licence in Malaysia

thoughts?


----------



## lenny

News out- looks like cost blow outs to the tune of 40m and a 3 month delay to the lamp which will shake the SP back down no doubt.


----------



## payshense

well some punters seem to be liking the outlook for LYC, big jump this morning!


----------



## drlog

lenny said:


> News out- looks like cost blow outs to the tune of 40m and a 3 month delay to the lamp which will shake the SP back down no doubt.




Or not...up 7% at the moment. I didnt think it was "good news" unless someone knows the LAMP will be approved? As in, someone who just handed Lynas lots of money to fund Lynas right now? Hmm, curious.

Thoughts anyone?


----------



## payshense

Decision by AELB on Monday on POL, which then needs final approval by Malaysian politicians 

public holiday here tomorrow, speculators jumping on today at any price 


going to sit and watch carefully myself. maybe i miss out ,,, decisions


----------



## TheAbyss

drlog said:


> Or not...up 7% at the moment. I didnt think it was "good news" unless someone knows the LAMP will be approved? As in, someone who just handed Lynas lots of money to fund Lynas right now? Hmm, curious.
> 
> Thoughts anyone?




Do you think LYC had to show Mount Kellett something regarding the POL prior to KM putting up $225m? LYC may not have the POL yet however to convince MK to put this much work in they must have been able to show something of substance re the POL.

I think they must have anyway.


----------



## KTrade

Last minute political maneuvering  http://www.freemalaysiatoday.com/2012/01/25/anti-lynas-group-calls-for-rally/


----------



## skc

drlog said:


> Or not...up 7% at the moment. I didnt think it was "good news" unless someone knows the LAMP will be approved? As in, someone who just handed Lynas lots of money to fund Lynas right now? Hmm, curious.
> 
> Thoughts anyone?




A bit all over the shop today for LYC. The dilution and delay are negatives, while the funding and negation of highly dilutive equity raising are positives.

I thought the initial fall didn't make sense, considering the overseas trading held up well and those who short in anticipation of an equity raising needs to cover. 

Only a few more trading days remaining to position (buy or sell) for the POL release... although you have to guess that a negative outcome has been priced in to some extent.


----------



## notting

I'm rubbing my hands together, salivating etc to put on a big short!
May have missed the boat if markets are down tonight and tomorrow.
Hoping for it to peater, then plummet.


----------



## drlog

notting said:


> I'm rubbing my hands together, salivating etc to put on a big short!
> May have missed the boat if markets are down tonight and tomorrow.
> Hoping for it to peater, then plummet.




So you think the POL won't be approved? What makes you so certain? I think it will be approved (and there will be a rally). Of course, the decision could be delayed further (which will result in a small price drop). 

Point is: If Malaysia were to reject LYC at this point, it would be very detrimental to investment in Malaysia and they know it.


----------



## lenny

With the 3 month delay of the lamp which was announced the other day I can't see the malaysian government rushing on a decision to grant the POL.

I wouldn't be surprised to see the SP move down and fill the gap at 1.075 and get a test of the buck but i've been wrong before.

Time will tell.


----------



## KTrade

Final day, local politicians leading resistance http://lockerz.com/s/178149749 :  http://www.freemalaysiatoday.com/2012/01/27/fears-still-linger-over-lynas-plant/


----------



## notting

drlog said:


> So you think the POL won't be approved? What makes you so certain? I think it will be approved (and there will be a rally). Of course, the decision could be delayed further (which will result in a small price drop).
> 
> Point is: If Malaysia were to reject LYC at this point, it would be very detrimental to investment in Malaysia and they know it.



To explain what drove my fingers to tap that out - 

Sometimes it just gets obvious.  
I was just expressing *my seeing* of the fact that it had rallied up too much on nothing especially when compairing it against, what an *active producer*(Molycorp), is actually trading at whilst *actually producing*!!

Even if it gets the license which I agree it will, in a polotically crafted way, LYC is already overpriced relativly to todays rare earth producers.

Hence you'd expect an excited rally if it gets the license then *timber!!!* as it stumbles around trying to function! For that may prove trickier than management expect!

If Molycorps price action has changed by the time LYC starts processing it's rare earths I would be on the buy side not the sell side at that time.
just remember I'm an extremely stupid cow.


----------



## Logique

LYSDY (US ADS) down 5.5% this morning with an hour and a half to go. 

Once the Malaysian Govt issues a POL they lose a bargaining chip, so I wouldn't be surprised if they hold off for a bit in the name of political expediency, as Lenny suggested. The LAMP is still under construction, it's not delaying production.


----------



## skyQuake

Logique said:


> LYSDY (US ADS) down 5.5% this morning with an hour and a half to go.
> 
> Once the Malaysian Govt issues a POL they lose a bargaining chip, so I wouldn't be surprised if they hold off for a bit in the name of political expediency, as Lenny suggested. The LAMP is still under construction, it's not delaying production.




LYSCF is generally the corresponding ADR, (does far more vol than LYSDY) 
Closed at $1.265 versus LYSDY $1.285 vs LYC AU $1.285


----------



## Logique

skyQuake said:


> LYSCF is generally the corresponding ADR, (does far more vol than LYSDY)..



So it does, thanks for that SQ.


----------



## payshense

Malaysian media is reporting that Lynas has been granted temporary operating license. Not that i believe everything i read. Looking forward to hearing official confirmation of this, hopefully before market opens later this morning. Maybe holding LYC will finally pay off.


----------



## aaronphetamine

I think it is strange that the announcment is out in the media, but it hasnt been officially announced through the ASX yet. I dont know why this would be, especially since this is a positive news announcement, I would have thought that LYC would have raced to publish this with the ASX. Does anyone know why this is? Does this mean that LYC could be in trouble becuase news has been published from information obtained from by the media, that hasnt yet been formally announced is insider information?

Either way though, it seems in the pre open though, that LYC will open up significantly.

I am a minor shareholder of LYC.


----------



## notting

Has now before market open so all good. Already matching at %10 higher with over half an hour to go.


----------



## Logique

The key is that word _temporary_, i.e. not yet a _full_ license. It allows Lynas to start in (estim.) Q2 2012, on a limited basis, under close scrutiny by the Atomic ELB. If they jump this hurdle, the ramp up to full capacity won't be until (probably late) 2013. Lynas must deposit a $US50Mill guarantee with the Malaysian govt, and submit plans and a location for a permanent disposal facility within 10 months. I understand the WA govt has said they would not accept the tailings back there.

In the background a key contractor has pulled out, citing safety concerns. 

Lynas gets temporary licence to start Kuantan plant
http://www.themalaysianinsider.com/...ets-temporary-licence-to-start-kuantan-plant/
The appended comments are worth reading. Politically, this is far from over:

_"People of Kuantan area and Pahang and Terengganu: 

1. Mobilise and punish the UMNO-BN regime by voting for Pakatan Rakyat 
so that PR will take over the Terengganu and Pahang state govts 

2. After that, the Pahang state govt will kick Lynas out of Pahang completely 

3. Then, prosecute all the govt bureaucrats who are responsible for granting Lynas 
this license. 

PKL (public health professor and Kuantan Boy)" _


----------



## Starcraftmazter

Back to $2 it goes? What's there to stop it?


----------



## Gringotts Bank

Bought a big chunk yesterday, sold about about hour later at breakeven.


----------



## notting

50 Million Dollars goes a long way in Malaysia!
They leverage it up and lend against it!
I haven't read the documents, is this cash that Lynas has to fork over going to be on top of the 40 million blowout mine build?
If so that should be expensed as it cannot just be taken out of thin air or written as an IOU!!







> 2. After that, the Pahang state govt will kick Lynas out of Pahang completely
> 3. Then, prosecute all the govt bureaucrats who are responsible for granting Lynas
> this license.



Dream on PKL, not going to happen!
Malaysia would become a laughing stock for business investment.
Besides, Pahang state govt would rather find fault with the waist procedure and keep the cash!


----------



## notting

notting said:


> Hence you'd expect an excited rally if it gets the license then *timber!!!*




I was not expecting it to fall so fast on just the second day after the announcement so missed putting the short on.  
This development may have contributed to the rapid pop. - http://www.theaustralian.com.au/business/mining-energy/chinas-rare-earths-grip-in-us-sights-after-wto-ruling/story-e6frg9df-1226257912652


----------



## Logique

Thanks Notting, hadn't been aware of that. The other thing, noted by Marcus Padley during the week, is the trend in REE prices is down. Lynas has 2 years before reaching full production, assuming they pass the regulatory hurdles and hostile local politics.

Not saying by any means that LYC isn't a stock to follow, just that the sp settling back down after an announcement isn't surprising, given their development timetable and the REE market dynamics, as you have highlighted.


----------



## skyQuake

notting said:


> I was not expecting it to fall so fast on just the second day after the announcement so missed putting the short on.
> This development may have contributed to the rapid pop. - http://www.theaustralian.com.au/business/mining-energy/chinas-rare-earths-grip-in-us-sights-after-wto-ruling/story-e6frg9df-1226257912652




Removed from Macq Model Portfolio on Fri. Though it could just as well be simple profit taking after such a huge day.


----------



## lenny

Nice test of support at $1.40 this morning on declining volume & gap filled.


Could be a nice low risk entry if your not already.

With the POL being granted might be the start of a nice trend.

GL


----------



## Chasero

So... lynas trending way down again. 

Surprised to see it down to around $1.20 again...

Will be interesting to see what happens around the 90c to $1 range.. if it hits there.


----------



## pixel

Chasero said:


> So... lynas trending way down again.
> 
> Surprised to see it down to around $1.20 again...
> 
> Will be interesting to see what happens around the 90c to $1 range.. if it hits there.



 not surprised at all:
The license is only temporary, so the scaremongers will regroup.
Technically, the breakout on the 2nd left a highly toppy Doji, which, especially when follwed by the dominant red candle, had profit taking written all over the chart. And then there are still two gaps a little lower down.


----------



## notting

It seems a bit weird that Lynas chose Malaysia  in the first place after this - http://www.consumer.org.my/index.php/health/454-chronology-of-events-in-the-bukit-merah-asian-rare-earth-developments
Molycorp is still in the hole, despite having a virtual monopoly outside China.


----------



## Chasero

notting said:


> It seems a bit weird that Lynas chose Malaysia  in the first place after this - http://www.consumer.org.my/index.php/health/454-chronology-of-events-in-the-bukit-merah-asian-rare-earth-developments
> Molycorp is still in the hole, despite having a virtual monopoly outside China.




Yes.. I definitely wouldn't want to be around that lynas plant..

Also protesting stories appear to pop up every 2-3 months..

http://www.thebull.com.au/articles/a/26215-malaysians-go-to-court-to-stop-lynas-plant.html


----------



## lenny

Chasero,

These articles are misinformed and lacks substance.

The AELB are technical experts in this field and they have approved the TOL.

The issuing of TOL is almost certain now and just a matter of time imo.


----------



## pixel

lenny said:


> Chasero,
> 
> These articles are misinformed and lacks substance.
> 
> The AELB are technical experts in this field and they have approved the TOL.
> 
> The issuing of TOL is almost certain now and just a matter of time imo.



 since when has technical expertise stopped any "Anti-Brigade"?
... especially when they're aligned with peculiar pecuniar Chinese interests ...



> KUALA LUMPUR (AFP)--Malaysian activists said on Friday they had filed a court  challenge to block a rare-earth plant being built by Australian miner Lynas  Corp. (LYSDY), which has stoked fears over radiation pollution.
> Activist group Stop Lynas Coalition filed a petition on behalf of residents  of eastern Malaysia, where the plant is located, the group's adviser, opposition  lawmaker Fuziah Salleh said.
> The filing with a court in Kuala Lumpur seeks a review of the government's  decision earlier this month to award Lynas an operating license, she said.
> Lynas intends to process rare earths--elements used in such products as smart  phones, wind turbines and missiles--at the plant in Malaysia's Pahang state. The  rare earths are to be imported from Australia.
> The Malaysian government has said it would closely monitor the company's  handling of radioactive waste, and Lynas has insisted the plant will be safe.
> However, Fuziah said the plant shouldn't be allowed to open as no detailed  study has been done to assess its impact on the environment and residents.
> "What if there is a leakage? What if there is migration of the radioactive  material into the water and soil?" Fuziah said.
> "There should be a real detailed study."
> Analysts say *the plant*, able to process an initial 11,000 tons of rare earths  per year, *will help break a Chinese stranglehold* on the materials that has  crimped supply and sent prices soaring in recent years.
> *China currently meets about 95% of world demand. *
> Lynas hopes to begin production in the middle of the year.
> But activists have vowed to step up their protests ahead of general elections  widely expected to be called this year. A rally in the seaside town of Kuantan  near the plant is scheduled for later this month.
> Opponents point to a similar rare-earth plant in Malaysia's northern Perak  state that was forced to shut down in 1992 over protests from residents who  blamed it for birth defects in nearby populations.
> 
> (END) Dow Jones Newswires
> February 17, 2012 04:52 ET (09:52 GMT)



(highlights are mine)


----------



## notting

Chasero said:


> Yes.. I definitely wouldn't want to be around that lynas plant..
> 
> http://www.thebull.com.au/articles/a/26215-malaysians-go-to-court-to-stop-lynas-plant.html




What's the "yes" for? No one said they would not want to be around a Lynas plant!
The key word in the Bukit Merah saga is *"illegal dumping"*.  With all the scrutiny around Lynas, living next to the Lynas plant will be the safest place in the world!

My comments relate to the choice to build the processing plant in a place that had a bad experience with a badly run plant that engaged illegal polluting activity non of which Lynus will do.  Yet Lynas can easily be targeted  by Chinese  funded propaganda and anti nuclear sloganizing and of course by those genuinely frightened due to past experiences, but not anything to do with a problem that Lynas might create.


----------



## KTrade

In an election year, this does not augur well for Lynas:

http://www.themalaysianinsider.com/malaysia/article/hundreds-gather-as-anti-lynas-rally-kicks-off


----------



## Derrick

http://www.channelnewsasia.com/stories/southeastasia/view/1185587/1/.html

For your reading.... i think the government will bow the the peoples pressure...30,000 ppl turned up to protest...


----------



## Derrick

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=mXdvJ8xBens&feature=g-all-u&context=G22412a8FAAAAAAAAAAA

take a look!!


----------



## Derrick

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=5Gl8b5kbUdg&feature=related

OMG!! thts a huge crowd ....!!

looks like lynas wont be getting any license....


----------



## Derrick

i think there s no point for us to argue here... tht whether the plant is safe or not, right or not... 

the residence in Kuantan has made up their mind.with those strong crowd opposing, most government in the world will bow to the pressure... 

Lynas is a very very high risk counter now...


----------



## Chasero

notting said:


> What's the "yes" for? No one said they would not want to be around a Lynas plant!
> The key word in the Bukit Merah saga is *"illegal dumping"*.  With all the scrutiny around Lynas, living next to the Lynas plant will be the safest place in the world!
> 
> My comments relate to the choice to build the processing plant in a place that had a bad experience with a badly run plant that engaged illegal polluting activity non of which Lynus will do.  Yet Lynas can easily be targeted  by Chinese  funded propaganda and anti nuclear sloganizing and of course by those genuinely frightened due to past experiences, but not anything to do with a problem that Lynas might create.




So you wouldn't protest if a lynas plant was being built near where you live?

Even if the threat is 0.01% chance of something occurring, the fact is there IS an increase in risk.

Whether it's safe or not is the entire point of the protest?? There's an increased risk from living next to that thing.


----------



## notting

I might protest.  
I might rev up all the surrounding neighbourhoods, ramp up the fear as much as possible, then quietly buy up their houses for nothing, build lots of cheap units then rent them out to Lynas workers for inflated prices with my little monopoly!!
May even get a bonus if some issue arises and I can claim damages for it.

It's not really exploitation, if that .01% is such a bogie then I will be the white night rescuing the existing residence from the .001% risk of a misshap.  Then the only people at risk would be Lynas colluders!
Further, in allowing Lynas to function as a *clean plant* it may make it harder for the Chinese atrocities and horrific environmental poising they impose on their own people and the world without the slightest conscience.
One instance that was recently reported in the Financial Review of all places, was some Chinese factory that just lets it’s toxic waist go into the local river area and all the people are constantly getting sick and being poisoned and so on.  This is normal practice in China. The Chinese government assures the local populations with all it’s propaganda that they are cleaning it up and fixing the issues.
In this instance, after six years of nothing happening this one guy starts protesting outside the factory.  He is arrested, thrown in jail, hung from the roof for three days, beaten with bamboo sticks till he is bloodied all over his body. Then kept incarcerated for three years barley given enough to eat and drink, no medical assistance nothing.  Even whilst set free he is routinely harrassed by police in plane clothes.
Oh yeah, if people like this try to escape China they are shot along with the rest of their families, often after horrific torture.  That's why you don't get to hear much about it the Chinese people and peoples they occupy are too terrified. I dunno.  A clean Lynas plant  is a better option than letting the Chinese take over the world I reckon.
I'd sleep on top of it's chimney if it would help in that regard!


----------



## Derrick

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ZUVZ3-GspfE&sns=fb

man!!! more on the protest!! will the government bow to the people s pressure??


----------



## Smurf1976

notting said:


> IA clean Lynas plant  is a better option than letting the Chinese take over the world I reckon.



That is essentially the same argument that's been used for years in Australia in regard to controversial projects.

Gunns pulp mill at Bell Bay and the Wesley Vale mill before it, the recent NW Shelf gas developments, Australian industry in general in terms of the CO2 emissions debate, even as far back as the Gordon-below-Franklin dam 30 years ago. 

With the exception of gas in WA where big money is involved, the argument hasn't been a political winner thus far at the national level. At the local level perhaps it might work but it hasn't changed national policy in Australia thus far so I wouldn't count on that argument working in Malaysia either.

One thing the pro-development side took years to realise but did eventually accept in relation to some of those other debates is that it tends to be far too scientifically based. Logical, rational arguments in favour of dams, mills or whatever backed by solid maths are nowhere near as effective as just one good photo taken by the other side. Emotion wins practically every time where the environment is concerned (and engineers aren't known for using emotion).


----------



## Smurf1976

One thing really comes to mind about this project. 

Why not build it in Australia?

I suspect the answer to that will reveal rather a lot.


----------



## notting

Smurf1976 said:


> One thing really comes to mind about this project.
> 
> Why not build it in Australia?
> 
> I suspect the answer to that will reveal rather a lot.




Because it's easie/cheaper to distribute from there. It's not an environment thing. Remember we're putting our hand up to become a nuclear dump, we have plenty of uninhabitable space for dirty things(not that I'm saying it can't be done cleanly). But Malaysia was a stupid choice given the history and Chinese population/infiltration.


----------



## lenny

Smurf1976 said:


> One thing really comes to mind about this project.
> 
> Why not build it in Australia?
> 
> I suspect the answer to that will reveal rather a lot.




*12 years tax free granted by Malaysian government for pioneer status to attract Lynas to Malaysia.

*Cheap labour.

*Cheap land.

*Close proximity to end users China & Japan.

Remember China has a 95% monopoly of the ree market atm and will become net importers within 5 years.


----------



## Starcraftmazter

More bad news for LYC I'm afraid.
http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2012-...rts-as-overseas-demand-rebounds-on-price.html


----------



## notting

> China, the biggest supplier of rare earths, may almost double exports this year and meet quotas set by the government as lower prices stimulate demand.




Predictable given Lynas is to be starting up production at about that time. Manipulating nasty things that they are.


----------



## Logique

SP 1.10 today. If this pullback brings it down to 0.90 - 1.00 we'll find out who the true believers are. Tempting, but the next lower support at 0.50 is a long way down.


----------



## notting

I'd say 50c is about fair given the environment it's chosen and what rare earth prices are doing in general.  
Even at 50c I wouldn't be getting excited, though it would probably find allot of support.


----------



## Sergio

errrr..... how it could go as low as 50-90c? some more bad news will come? i thought new plant will be done very soon?


----------



## ACEz

Sergio said:


> errrr..... how it could go as low as 50-90c? some more bad news will come? i thought new plant will be done very soon?



 There is ALOT! of resistance over there  , The next election is coming up soon and I wouldn't be surprised if Lynas gets denied , It's not a good situation to be in IMO.


----------



## notting

If it gets denied Lynas will be able to sue the living day lights out of the government and Malaysia will have a massive sovereign risk tagged on it's face.
 They'd be insane to deny it after the thing has been permitted to be constructed. 
Not going to happen! They will find a political way around it. 
Maybe that party has no hope of winning.


----------



## lenny

Not long to go now!

- AELB have approved the TOL.

- LAMP almost complete.

- Cashed up with recent 225m convertible bonds issue.

- Contracts for stage 1 already signed up.

- Substantial holders increasing their positions.

We can expect 3 BIG ANN's either late this month or early April.

As always DYOR.


----------



## Chasero

08 Mar 2012 	1.080 	-1.82% 	1.130 	1.070 	22,173,636
07 Mar 2012 	1.100 	-1.79% 	1.135 	1.090 	21,126,909
06 Mar 2012 	1.120 	-0.88% 	1.160 	1.115 	18,556,675
05 Mar 2012 	1.130 	-0.88% 	1.165 	1.120 	16,657,664

Draw a line on the LYC graph @ 1.08

There is a TONNE of support at around $1.08.

Seems like someone MAY be accumulating. 

I doubt we'll see lynas below $1.08.. if it does stop losses may be hit.

Last few days has seen very strong for LYC. Hence why I THINK bottom may be hit at $1.08.

Always, DYOR. (I am already in @1.09).

Again, I am buying the rumour (i.e. expecting positive anns to come out in April).


----------



## skyQuake

Actually its fact not rumour buying today. Molycorp (US) is taking over Neo Materials (CN)

which is a positive read though for LYC ARU etc


----------



## Chasero

Did anyone notice the $1,000,000 trade that went through at 10:30am??


----------



## Starcraftmazter

Chasero said:


> Draw a line on the LYC graph @ 1.08
> 
> There is a TONNE of support at around $1.08.
> 
> Seems like someone MAY be accumulating.
> 
> I doubt we'll see lynas below $1.08.. if it does stop losses may be hit.
> 
> Last few days has seen very strong for LYC. Hence why I THINK bottom may be hit at $1.08.




If your thesis is that someone is accumulating which is generating strong support at 1.08, may I ask what you propose happens when they cease their operations?

I'm just itching to trade LYC, but I am also very scared of the sovereign risk, and the sp just collapsing one day because of it...

What makes people like you so sure it will not be a problem?


----------



## lenny

Good to see the gap fill @ 1.075 yesterday and a nice bounce off the gap support today.

It was reported in a malaysian article yesterday that Lynas has submitted a letter of content to the AELB and were looking to pay the first installment of 10 million which are both conditions that had to be met prior to the issue of the TOL.


----------



## Chasero

Starcraftmazter said:


> If your thesis is that someone is accumulating which is generating strong support at 1.08, may I ask what you propose happens when they cease their operations?
> 
> I'm just itching to trade LYC, but I am also very scared of the sovereign risk, and the sp just collapsing one day because of it...
> 
> What makes people like you so sure it will not be a problem?




For point 1, I don't think it's 1 person. I think it is a safe entry buy for a lot of traders. Note: this is based on the theory that LYC will be trading SIDEWAYS throughout 2012. (already setting up like so)

For sovereign risk, I too am very scared. Unexpected announcements just part of the game and have to look for best exit if trapped long.

If you are scared of sovereign risk, should you not also be scared of positive announcements and missing out on potential gains?

Have to weigh out this risk/reward.


----------



## Starcraftmazter

Chasero said:


> If you are scared of sovereign risk, should you not also be scared of positive announcements and missing out on potential gains?




That's akin to gambling :

We shall see what happens I guess.


----------



## Chasero

Starcraftmazter said:


> That's akin to gambling :
> 
> We shall see what happens I guess.




With gambling, you can't protect profits 

Molycorp gave rare earths a nice kick, but I will watch for re-entry further down.

You might want to check out HC's short term trading positions. Buying rumours close to EXPECTED announcement dates is actually a very common trading strategy, or buying on the news/after trading halts for quick swing trades.

e.g. Molycorp

Another one you should be familiar with is RED. Look what happened close to the November 2011 gold pour date


----------



## lenny

Interesting piece on the ABC the other night.

Starts at the 8 minute mark. http://www.abc.net.au/iview/?WT.srch=1&WT.svl=TV_iview_au#/view/905522

Take note of what NC says about the TOL.

Cheers


----------



## KTrade

Some development on TOL case - http://thestar.com.my/news/story.asp?file=/2012/4/12/nation/20120412150900&sec=nation


----------



## PinguPingu

Slowly but surely we edge towards TOL issuance and production. 

A good article summarising the Judge's decision to dsimiss the license review: 

http://www.themalaysianinsider.com/...dents-fail-in-bid-to-challenge-lynas-licence/


----------



## KTrade

Looks like local anti-lynas activist had just filed an appeal against the court's decision..

Papers are being filed immediately to appeal court. RT @azizisafar: Cuba lagi! RT @fuziah99: Maksudnya semakan kehakiman kami ditolak RT @RuzisRI


----------



## Chasero

Interesting article in new york times:

http://www.nytimes.com/2012/04/20/b...ant-in-malaysia-counters-complaints.html?_r=2

"The company, Lynas, said the first phase of its project would be ready to open in two weeks."

I am wanting to re-enter around sub $1.10. Buy the rumour.


----------



## ROE

Chasero said:


> Interesting article in new york times:
> 
> http://www.nytimes.com/2012/04/20/b...ant-in-malaysia-counters-complaints.html?_r=2
> 
> "The company, Lynas, said the first phase of its project would be ready to open in two weeks."
> 
> I am wanting to re-enter around sub $1.10. Buy the rumour.




This is not a rumor LAMP is ready to go as soon as TOL is issued
it could be as soon as next week...

Do you know the LYC saga that been going on?

Lynas also up the anti and launch a Defamation case against a paper, anti-lynas group and its leaders for spreading false information.

Since then these guys pull down all the bull**** articles, I said good on Lynas 
sue them and make them accountable for their actions, hit them where it hurts the wallet...


----------



## Chasero

ROE said:


> This is not a rumor LAMP is ready to go as soon as TOL is issued
> it could be as soon as next week...
> 
> Do you know the LYC saga that been going on?
> 
> Lynas also up the anti and launch a Defamation case against a paper, anti-lynas group and its leaders for spreading false information.
> 
> Since then these guys pull down all the bull**** articles, I said good on Lynas
> sue them and make them accountable for their actions, hit them where it hurts the wallet...




KUANTAN (April 19, 2012): "Lynas Advance Material Plant Malaysia (Lamp) needs immediate clearance of the Temporary Operating License (TOL) from the government as delays in the plant operation would cost the company, their supplier and shareholder financial losses."

But how would you know TOL won't be delayed?

Always a risk. I just think LYC has been trading sideways. Hence the downside of $1.10 vs upside is a good risk/reward if the TOL is issued.

http://www.thesundaily.my/news/355052


----------



## Chasero

I am in at 1.09 today.

Lots of rumours TOL issuance is soon. Then LAMP ready to go!

Stop loss 0.99c


----------



## PinguPingu

Well the Minister has said he will make his decision within April. So that leaves 6 days. The AELB has also said they are only waiting on the outcomes of the judicial review (finished) and the Minister appeal to formally issue the TOL. There has to be new, convincing, empircal evidence to suggest that the LAMP should not operate and so far the biggest problem there might have been has been dealth with (if needed, waste can be recycled to completely safe materials).

I just feel like I know far too much about Malaysian politics these days


----------



## verce

PinguPingu said:


> Well the Minister has said he will make his decision within April. So that leaves 6 days. The AELB has also said they are only waiting on the outcomes of the judicial review (finished) and the Minister appeal to formally issue the TOL. There has to be new, convincing, empircal evidence to suggest that the LAMP should not operate and so far the biggest problem there might have been has been dealth with (if needed, waste can be recycled to completely safe materials).
> 
> I just feel like I know far too much about Malaysian politics these days




Do you have a source for this decision by April comment? I only ask because it's now May...

(Currently holding)


----------



## blackjack

verce said:


> Do you have a source for this decision by April comment? I only ask because it's now May...
> 
> (Currently holding)




Someone gave the SLSM anti Lynas group a 300 page technical report to gum up the works and make a court decisions on the TOL difficult, given the research needed to understand and appropriately answer the questions it raised.

Now who do you think that could have been?
Someone with an axe to grind?
Someone scared of Lynas being first to market?
Ego's on the line?

ON ANOTHER SUBJECT
Jack Lifton is on the Malaysia Symposium panel tomorrow and so I hope he doesnt use this chance to ramp his favourite REE mine GWG. In the last few reports blogs speeches I have seen he has rarely mentioned LYNAS

So it makes you wonder what his agenda is given that Lynas is days away from getting its TOL issues and he refuses to give them any positive press?

As he is on the panel for Mondays symposium I hope he doesnt:
1. continue his China bashing
2. continue his ramping of GWG
3. create doubt about LYNAS (as Lynas has the green light, met all the laws and recommendations from the IAEA, AELB, Malaysian Science Minister - etc etc.

Keep to the facts Jack and forget you tiff with Nick Curtis - He has done it and built the first LAMP outside of China. Whereas, you are still writing about it. So be fair and put your agenda aside, thanks

ALSO lets see if the SMSL and Anti Lynas speakers turn up. THEY HAVE been invited.


----------



## PinguPingu

verce said:


> Do you have a source for this decision by April comment? I only ask because it's now May...
> 
> (Currently holding)




Yeah seems like it's taking longer, it was one of many Malaysian insider articles I read that week.


----------



## verce

http://thestar.com.my/news/story.asp?file=/2012/5/10/nation/20120510165948&sec=nation

*PSC on Lynas satisfied with rare earth mining company explanation*
_
KUANTAN: The Parliamentary Select Committee (PSC) on Lynas is satisfied with the explanations given by the rare earth mining company.

The PSC was briefed by Lynas Malaysia Sdn Bhd managing director Datuk Mashal Ahmad, radiological safety adviser Prof Ismail Bahari and plant general manager Khairul Salleh Jais.

During the visit that lasted five hours, the committee was also given an on-site tour of the plant.

PSC member Datuk Zulkifli Noordin concurred with Mohamed Khaled, saying that claims that Lynas was secretive about its operations were unfounded.

"Even information that was not supposed to be revealed was revealed to us," said the Kulim Bandar Bahru MP._

Interesting article. Currently holding. DYOR.


----------



## Chasero

There is support at 95c... for the brave.

I'll just look and watch for now. If it breaks 95c.. not going to be pretty.


----------



## lenny

On a funnymetal note the time is right for LYC to be putting the ball officially in the Malaysian governments court by announcing that the plant is 100% complete.

Just a little gentle reminder that they are holding the whole show up.


----------



## skyQuake

False break imo


----------



## lenny

Monday the 21st is appearing to be a big day for lyc with the psc set to give their final public hearing in regards to the lamp and if all good would make sense for minister ongkili to hand down his decision and issue the Tol.

Could be a big rerating back to 2 bucks plus.


----------



## lenny

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=LcKs8cswQPs&feature=relmfu


----------



## lenny

http://www.mobtv.my/current_affairs-1398.html

Raja aziz the head of the aelb starts to talk in english at the 8 minute mark.


----------



## PinguPingu

*Decision On Appeal Against Temporary Licence For Lynas In Two Weeks*

http://www.bernama.com.my/bernama/v6/newsindex.php?id=667908

Finally, a (relatively) definite date. With all the positive PR on Rare earths and experts chipping in on the safety of the plant I believe the appeal will be not be upheld, a decision that is supposedly final and which is all the AELB is waiting for to 'unsuspend' the TOL.


----------



## skc

Is it all about Malaysia? Or is it more about rare earth?





MCP as far as I am aware has no political issues to speak of...


----------



## numbercruncher

Without actually researching this Question myself , Why did they build the processing plant in Malaysia and not in Oz ? Just an upfront cost thing ?


----------



## jimmyizgod

numbercruncher said:


> Without actually researching this Question myself , Why did they build the processing plant in Malaysia and not in Oz ? Just an upfront cost thing ?




combination of cheapness and less stringent laws regarding waste disposal over there. Rare earth processing produces some pretty serious waste.

http://uranium-news.com/2012/03/10/...its-rare-earths-processing-why-not-australia/


----------



## PinguPingu

Nice biased blog source you have there. It's far more to do with cheapness (wages, building costs, etc.) and closer proximity to future clients in Asia. 

As for the waste disposal, I don't know if you've actually been following this but the amount of investigation as been exhaustive, higher even than international atomic standards. 

http://au.ibtimes.com/articles/3442...are-earths-lynas-corp-radiology-radiation.htm


----------



## jimmyizgod

agreed - bad source. twas the first one from a google search.
Malaysia way cheaper cause a lot of the infrastructure is already in place as well.


----------



## verce

The Malaysian government offered Lynas 'Strategic Pioneer' status with 12 years tax-free operation in a bid to attract more direct foreign investment.

Currently holding. DYOR.


----------



## numbercruncher

Ahh now thats a big incentive ! Thanks for the responses.

I can see the demand long term for rare Earths but a fair bit of pressure near term hey ?




> CHINA is allowing more companies to export rare earth after they met new environmental standards, but a steepening decline in China's exports of the strategic minerals suggests that its policy restrictions haven't kept pace with how swiftly market demand has soured.
> 
> China controls about 95 per cent*of the global supply of rare-earth minerals, which are used in everything from consumer electronics to batteries to defense systems. In recent years the government has reduced its export quotas to secure greater control over prices, but demand eased significantly last year amid a sputtering economic recovery.
> 
> As demand continues to slow, Beijing's move is a reminder of the quota's ineffectiveness as the tide turns against Chinese rare-earth exports.
> 
> Only about half of last year's 30,184-tonne quota was used, according to the ministry. Major rare-earth exports in March this year fell more than 70 per cent*compared with a year earlier, according to Beijing-based rare-earth consulting firm Baichuan Information, citing customs data.




http://www.theaustralian.com.au/business/mining-energy/china-lifts-rare-earth-export-quotas-as-market-demand-sours/story-e6frg9df-1226359934072


----------



## PinguPingu

skc said:


> Is it all about Malaysia? Or is it more about rare earth?
> 
> View attachment 47196
> 
> 
> MCP as far as I am aware has no political issues to speak of...




I definitely think it has a part to play, as seen in your graph. Both MCP and LYC are not producing yet (as far as I'm aware with MCP) but I expect a significant re-rate on LYC when the TOL is given and when production actually starts. Many broker reports using very conservative basket prices value LYC at around $1.70-1.90 using Phase 1 production figures, I am however glad my average buy price is well, well under that figure.


----------



## skc

PinguPingu said:


> I definitely think it has a part to play, as seen in your graph. Both MCP and LYC are not producing yet (as far as I'm aware with MCP) but I expect a significant re-rate on LYC when the TOL is given and when production actually starts. Many broker reports using very conservative basket prices value LYC at around $1.70-1.90 using Phase 1 production figures, I am however glad my average buy price is well, well under that figure.




LYC's Phase 1 production was going to be 11,000 tonnes, with phase 2 up to 22,000 tonnes. MCP's Phase 1 production was 19,050 tonnes, with phase 2 up to 40,000 tonnes. Both are expected to come on line in similar timeframe.

According to various reports, China's export quota of 30-35,000 tonnes accounted for >90% of global demand. This means global demand is only something like 40,000 tonnes. LYC and MCP alone can supply 75% of this demand. What happens when this supply hits the market, while China's supply continues? Demand is supposed to increase greatly in the future as more uses for RE are envisaged, but the phase 2 production target of LYC and MCP adds another 30,000 tonnes. So the key questions are whether demand will rise at the same rapid rate as these lumpy jumps in supply, and what will the price be (It is rare to see a market so small with such a big forecast jump in supply, so probably impossible to guess).

With target of $1.8 that's a market cap of ~$3B. You'd need something like $300m NPAT to justify that sort of market price. That translate to ~$30 net profit per kg of RE. With the LYC production cost ~$10/kg, the market price of RE must stay above $50/kg to justify a share price target of $1.8.

Add in uncertainty of the global market and economic growth forecasts (note how RE demand fell in 2009), time value discount and execution risks, the current LYC share price to me is as much a function of the rare earth market dynamics as the political situation in Malaysia.


----------



## Julia1979

Hello everyone.  While my previously posted technical price target of 75 cent comes closer, Lynas is still trapped in politics. Those who underestimated or even ignored this issue might have learned a lesson and for those who read the situation correctly it was a very rewarding chance for shorting this stock (thanks for all the pumpers btw.).

As we found out last week, Morgan Stanley reduced it's stake to round about 7% and after their facebook-show, it would indeed surprise me if they would not pull a fast one with the Lynas shareholders in such an uptight situation. Remember, the honorable Mr. Curtis (what did he sell his shares for last year?  ) is likely to load up the truck *if* he expects LYC to survive and become a producer in Malaysia. To me this seems to be the key. Without Curtis buying back in, I would be very careful here. 

Regards
Julia

Disclosure: currently flat and ready for a longtrade in the swinging sixties


----------



## lenny

Hi Julie, 

The minister decision will probably see the stock go into a trading halt then gap up 30% or 40% good luck shorting it.


----------



## Julia1979

lenny said:


> Hi Julie,
> 
> The minister decision will probably see the stock go into a trading halt then gap up 30% or 40% good luck shorting it.




hi Schatz,
as you can read I'm not shorting LYC anymore. Remember never be too greedy and there is enough junk on the market. 
Still think a green light for LYC is unlikely before the elections for obvious reasons. And no matter what they decide, Lynas will continue to be a political issue in Malaysia.
Regards
Julia


----------



## ROE

I double up on on this specs this week pending a yes to TOL.
Average price just over a dollar, let see how we go...

Not much money all up 50K worth.

sometimes you just have to go with guts instinct with Asian politics 
that this thing will get approve and get the operating license...

I am aiming for price target of around $2 in 2 years time ...


----------



## payshense

Glad to see Lynas break back through $1, it can keep going to! At this stage I would like to think that I have learnt, that speculation is a dangerous thing to invest in. Particularly in the case of a country like Malaysia. If i can sell for a reasonable profit on this speculative rise, I'll take my money and get out for a while. And I believe it is speculative too, just because TOL is issued means nothing anymore. Lets not forget Malaysian election is due next. And it would take a brave man to bet on the outcome, and effect, of that one! Interested in others thoughts on this.

Holding LYC.


----------



## verce

payshense said:


> Glad to see Lynas break back through $1, it can keep going to! At this stage I would like to think that I have learnt, that speculation is a dangerous thing to invest in. Particularly in the case of a country like Malaysia. If i can sell for a reasonable profit on this speculative rise, I'll take my money and get out for a while. And I believe it is speculative too, just because TOL is issued means nothing anymore. Lets not forget Malaysian election is due next. And it would take a brave man to bet on the outcome, and effect, of that one! Interested in others thoughts on this.
> 
> Holding LYC.




Fascinating stock. 17.32% in one day is nothing to sneeze at.

Now we just wait and see what the Minister has to say in the next 2 weeks.

[Currently holding. DYOR.]


----------



## Starcraftmazter

The one goddamn day I wasn't at a computer.....

Does anyone have an explanation for today? A stock like LYC gets bought up 17% through the day, almost screams inside knowledge of impending events


----------



## ROE

Starcraftmazter said:


> The one goddamn day I wasn't at a computer.....
> 
> Does anyone have an explanation for today? A stock like LYC gets bought up 17% through the day, almost screams inside knowledge of impending events




Volume and price indicates TOL permit is imminent....the trend started Friday
Today just confirmed someone is in the know...

Last time it did this it got a TOL shortly after that but not the permit.


----------



## lenny

SKC

Ree basket price:$62
Production cost:$10
Share on issue: 1.8 bill

Working on $45 kg profit and stage 1 production capacity of 11 million kg's of ree.
$45 x 11,000,000 = $495 mill profit per annum.

$495 mill / 1.8 bill share on issue = 27.5 cent profit per share.

Pick your PE ratio 8,10,12,14  some mining companies run in the 20's.

Lets pick a PE ratio of:
10 x by an earnings per share of 27.5 cents a share = $2.75
14 x by an earnings per share of 27.5 cents a share = $3.85

This is just stage 1 and you can basically double the above valuations for stage 2 production in 2013 but it still doesn't take into account the following:
-Stage 2 will likely process hree's(higher price per kg)
-Mt duncan
-The crown deposit.
-Ability to profit from waste residue (plaster board).
-Joint venture parntership with siemens.
-Mt weld is the richest known rare earth deposit in the world.
-China will become a net importer of ree within 5 years.

Regards
Lenny


----------



## payshense

Lenny, thanks for that Analysis. Made me smile and reminded me that the wait will be worthwhile in good time. I increased my holding this week. DYOR

Today should be interesting to watch, whichever way the price goes. Time for another coffee, and settle in for the opening


----------



## skc

lenny said:


> SKC
> 
> Ree basket price:$62
> Production cost:$10
> Share on issue: 1.8 bill
> 
> Working on $45 kg profit and stage 1 production capacity of 11 million kg's of ree.
> $45 x 11,000,000 = $495 mill profit per annum.
> 
> $495 mill / 1.8 bill share on issue = 27.5 cent profit per share.
> 
> Pick your PE ratio 8,10,12,14  some mining companies run in the 20's.




Thanks Lenny,

I have seen valuation on LYC else where that are similar to what you've outlined. While I don't use PE ratio for mining companies and I don't think that $10/kg production cost is all inclusive, but even if we make it conservative and say PE = 8x and $15/kg production cost, the valuation would still be in the ballpark of $2.50+. Then there's stage 2 upside as well.

If you and I can work out on the back of envelop valuation that's 2.5x above current price, there's no reason that other's can't see the same numbers (it is very closerly followed). The Malaysia situation is bad for the company but it doesn't warrant such a steep discount imo.

The variable that matters the most is clearly the realisable basket price. The market appears to be thinking that the additional supply from LYC / MCP and others will push the price down, and so the margin will not be as generous as we see here.

A couple of questions for you and other LYC followers:
- I understand LYC has pre-committed sales contracts lined up for much of its production. Are there information on the price? Is the price fixed or whatever the market is?
- You mentioned China will be net importer in 5 years. Can you point me to a reference?

Just a note... I guess I am trying to see if there are valid reasons for the current share price. If I can dispute those reasons than I can build an investment case. Rather than a different approach where one looks for reasons to support certain valuation, and risks confirmation bias.


----------



## awg

skc said:


> The Malaysia situation is bad for the company but it doesn't warrant such a steep discount imo.
> 
> The variable that matters the most is clearly the realisable basket price. The market appears to be thinking that the additional supply from LYC / MCP and others will push the price down, and so the margin will not be as generous as we see here.
> 
> A couple of questions for you and other LYC followers:
> - I understand LYC has pre-committed sales contracts lined up for much of its production. Are there information on the price? Is the price fixed or whatever the market is?
> - You mentioned China will be net importer in 5 years. Can you point me to a reference?
> 
> Just a note... I guess I am trying to see if there are valid reasons for the current share price. If I can dispute those reasons than I can build an investment case. Rather than a different approach where one looks for reasons to support certain valuation, and risks confirmation bias.




I think the risk discount is largely due to the Malaysia situation, although lower basket price and economic uncertainty play a part.

The company has failed to meet its timeline goals and its management has been subject to scrutiny.

If approval is granted ( could happen any day) I see $2, but every day it is delayed could drift the price down.

The company has no earnings, and the the sale agreements are not transparent on price afaic.

If the plant gets knocked on the head, or even further delayed by politics the sp will tank.

However I think business power will prevail, would be a huge knock to Malaysia credibility

holding (grimly)

sorry to not link, but reasonably credible source is US Govt Dept research on rare earth, has extensive projections, couple of years old by now, you should be able to find on google.

Dont think anyone can say for sure what China can or will do in next 5 years, other than to say, with such market dominance, you would expect they would be able to exert the most control over all aspects of the industry


----------



## lenny

skc said:


> A couple of questions for you and other LYC followers:
> - I understand LYC has pre-committed sales contracts lined up for much of its production. Are there information on the price? Is the price fixed or whatever the market is?
> - You mentioned China will be net importer in 5 years. Can you point me to a reference?




Stage 1 contracts are fully sold, information on the sales contracts are not disclosed for obvious reasons but are believed to be at a priemium to the spot price price because Lynas will be supplying the highest quality on the market.

"The pricing structure of the contract is related to the market price; however it includes a minimum floor price, without a maximum ceiling price, for the product sales over the term of the contract".

As for China becoming a net importer in 5 years, no i don't have a reference but if you do some research you will find :
 Chinas production plants are using ancient technology and are operating below worlds best practice in regards to safety and the effect it is having on the environment and production is being decreased and this trend is set to continue, also China has put export taxs on ree's to conserve their stocks for their on use on new green technology such ipads,iphones,flat screen tv's,hybrid cars,wind turbines,military uses ect ect ect.

The worlds need for ree's is only growing.


----------



## StumpyPhantom

This question to LYC observers is probably laziness on my part.

What is Plan B if the Malaysia Solution goes the same way as the Gillard/Bowen deal and they put a stop to it?

I saw a report on SBS tonight.  That looks like huge capex involved, so starting again somewhere doesn't sound great.  The report suggested the dispute was over the waste disposal issue, given some radioactivity.

Is there a Plan B whereby LYC simply alters the waste disposal part of the proposal (or the Malaysia Government sets those conditions)?

In other words, if the SP is going to tank, what is the level of the downside risk?


----------



## ROE

skc said:


> A couple of questions for you and other LYC followers:
> - I understand LYC has pre-committed sales contracts lined up for much of its production. Are there information on the price? Is the price fixed or whatever the market is?
> - You mentioned China will be net importer in 5 years. Can you point me to a reference?




Market price on the day of the delivery plus shipping cost
Doesn't really matter if China is a net importer as the world is big enough for all Lynas product
and they need a bit more.

Rare earth demand can only increase from here I don't see a slow in demand for many years yet.

Advance economy required rare earth as China, Asia becomes more advance after they use iron ore for their infrastructure they need Rare earth pretty much like Japan now ...

Japan big consumer of iron ore in 1970s now a big consumer of rare earth


----------



## ROE

StumpyPhantom said:


> This question to LYC observers is probably laziness on my part.
> 
> What is Plan B if the Malaysia Solution goes the same way as the Gillard/Bowen deal and they put a stop to it?
> 
> I saw a report on SBS tonight.  That looks like huge capex involved, so starting again somewhere doesn't sound great.  The report suggested the dispute was over the waste disposal issue, given some radioactivity.
> 
> Is there a Plan B whereby LYC simply alters the waste disposal part of the proposal (or the Malaysia Government sets those conditions)?
> 
> In other words, if the SP is going to tank, what is the level of the downside risk?




Plan B kissed Malaysia good bye and start dismantle stuff and build the plant here
by then we are in a recession and need some job created 

Some broker work out a few months ago worse case scenario that what would happen
and it be another few years delay and Lynas would be worth around 65c.

if no Plan B ...could see price double from here else take a 40% hair cut and cut your loss
if you want out...


----------



## verce

As we wait for a potential announcement on the appeal this week, here's an interesting article to tide you over:

http://www.theborneopost.com/2012/06/10/malaysia-going-for-green-vehicles/
_______________________________________________________________________________________________

"Malaysia has announced plans to boost its auto*motive sector through the production of electric cars, hoping to both develop a lucra*tive export trade while actively combating carbon emissions at home."

"government planning to announce a major policy shift that will promote the production and domestic use of electric vehicles."

"This growth would be un*derpinned by a higher level of foreign direct investment and government efforts to encourage original equipment manufacturers (OEMs) to set up operations in Malaysia."

“Meeting vehicle standards for energy-efficient vehicles in Malaysia means bringing new technologies into the country”

"If Malaysia is to achieve its ambitious target of cutting emissions by 40 per cent, it will need to move quickly to generate industry interest and acceptance of the new product among the public."
_______________________________________________________________________________________________

[Currently holding. DYOR]


----------



## blackjack

verce said:


> As we wait for a potential announcement on the appeal this week, here's an interesting article to tide you over:
> 
> http://www.theborneopost.com/2012/06/10/malaysia-going-for-green-vehicles/
> _______________________________________________________________________________________________
> 
> "Malaysia has announced plans to boost its auto*motive sector through the production of electric cars, hoping to both develop a lucra*tive export trade while actively combating carbon emissions at home."
> 
> "government planning to announce a major policy shift that will promote the production and domestic use of electric vehicles."
> 
> "This growth would be un*derpinned by a higher level of foreign direct investment and government efforts to encourage original equipment manufacturers (OEMs) to set up operations in Malaysia."
> 
> “Meeting vehicle standards for energy-efficient vehicles in Malaysia means bringing new technologies into the country”
> 
> "If Malaysia is to achieve its ambitious target of cutting emissions by 40 per cent, it will need to move quickly to generate industry interest and acceptance of the new product among the public."
> _______________________________________________________________________________________________
> 
> [Currently holding. DYOR]




Lynas losing money everyday due to the TOL not being issued
the PSC will file its report to the parliament on the 12th June 2012
the parliament will debate this on the 19th June 2012 but dont hold your breath as the Minister has said that he would make a decision on the TOL a week ago. He has not!
Malaysia's grandstanding is achieving nothing, in fact other large Co's thinking of moving to Malaysia's tech zone maybe thinking second thoughts as Lynas although completed all requirements is have a tough time getting the 3 licenses to get the LAMP going.

Some concentrate is needed to do the pre commissioning phase and this requires a license to import from Australia
This has not been issued and so further delays. 

I expect the SP to retreat again as if you look at the charts it starts the week strong then retreats as no word from the Malay Government. So someones making short rides up and down in a week. 

This is rubber time in Malaysia.

All things ready to go and someone has their foot on the brake.


----------



## Julia1979

blackjack said:


> All things ready to go and someone has their foot on the brake.




Wasn't it you saying, the protesters were a small group of ignorant idiots?  Now it is clear and can't be ignored any more: they are a nationwide movement. Told you over a year ago why they have their feet on the brakes. They are afraid not being reelected. Giving out a TOL before the elections would most likely be political suicide too.
Even if the LAMP would be given a TOL after the elections, people in Malaysia would never accept such a plant like no people in the western world would accept that in the middle of a highly populated area.

The initial mistake was to pick Kuantan in the first place. It was driven by greed and ignorance. Another mistake was to finish the LAMP instead of finding a safer place. Now Lynas has to pay for these mistakes.
They should move the LAMP, maybe somewhere on the island of Borneo. I'm sure the government will be able to provide something adequate and pay for the expenses. Unfortunately for LYC shareholders they will not pay for the delays. I'm afraid that "first movers" will be others.

regards
Julia

neither long or short atm


----------



## PinguPingu

Julia1979 said:


> ...he protesters were a small group of ignorant idiots?  Now it is clear and can't be ignored any more: they are a nationwide movement....




It is a handful of people, the appeal was made by 3 residents. The small SMSL group just joined the larger opposition protest because they could. 

Anyway, according to this Chinese/Malaysian news agency the appeal was dismissed: http://www.merdekareview.com/news.php?n=25256

Google Translated:	


> Kuantan residents appeal was dismissed by the Minister
> Ministry of Science by conditions to Linus
> 
> [Magazine has Xue Fei Compilation] science, technology and Innovation (MOSTI) dismissed the appeal against the Lynas rare earth plant temporary operating license, except set the additional two conditions, that is, to Linus rare earth plant mentioned Kuantan residents to ensure the waste storage tank does not leak radioactive waste, and offered to control dust to be distributed to the emergency plan in the air and the environment. Save Malaysia, the termination of Linus "(SMSL) The Chairman Chen Wende told the independent news online, the organization received the Minister of the Ministry of Science, Technology and Innovation (MOSTI) Mai Ximu Maximus, Ongkili letter to inform the residents of three Kuantan the outcome of the appeal. The letter said that the residents of the requests and evidence submitted does not enable the Department to withdraw the temporary operating license issued to the Lynas rare earth plant. However, the Minister in the letter that, under the Atomic Energy Licensing Act 1984 (Atomic Energy Licencing Act, 1984) empowers the Minister's powers, the additional two conditions attached to the Lynas rare earth plant, they complied with these two conditions will issue a temporary operating license to Linus.


----------



## lenny

Trading halt ?


----------



## Julia1979

lenny said:


> Trading halt ?




no, that was ARU old man


----------



## lenny

Julia1979 said:


> no, that was ARU old man




Old man lol?  

Your 33 and your calling me old lol?


----------



## herzy

If the TOL has been approved (or the appeal rejected) shouldn't we expect quite the bounce come monday?


----------



## Julia1979

PinguPingu said:


> It is a handful of people, the appeal was made by 3 residents. The small SMSL group just joined the larger opposition protest because they could.
> 
> Anyway, according to this Chinese/Malaysian news agency the appeal was dismissed: http://www.merdekareview.com/news.php?n=25256
> 
> Google Translated:




PinguPingu still having this reality problem? :1zhelp:
Hope it doesn't become too expensive 4U.

According to news sources we can read  there are two new conditions for Lynas.
"controlling dust" and "immobilzing waste" 

http://www.theaustralian.com.au/business/mining-energy/malaysia-rules-on-lynas-mine/story-e6frg9df-1226397017374

This can take some time and fits in my picture. Let's hope that the elections will be in 2012.

regards
Julia


----------



## Julia1979

lenny said:


> Old man lol?
> 
> Your 33 and your calling me old lol?




Oh sorry, have you become younger during the last couple of years?


----------



## PinguPingu

Julia1979 said:


> PinguPingu still having this reality problem? :1zhelp:
> Hope it doesn't become too expensive 4U.





Haha, reality problem? Not at all! I trade in and out of Lynas often. 



> According to news sources we can read...




Indeed, past the first few lines would be great  



> "controlling dust" and "immobilzing waste"




That Lynas already has the answers for, which is handy  

http://www.reuters.com/article/2012/06/15/malaysia-lynas-idUSL3E8HF33720120615?type=companyNews


----------



## verce

PinguPingu said:


> Haha, reality problem? Not at all! I trade in and out of Lynas often.
> 
> 
> 
> Indeed, past the first few lines would be great
> 
> 
> 
> That Lynas already has the answers for, which is handy
> 
> http://www.reuters.com/article/2012/06/15/malaysia-lynas-idUSL3E8HF33720120615?type=companyNews




In a press release, Minister of Science, Technology and Innovation Datuk Seri Dr Maximus Ongkili said one of the new conditions was that Lynas must submit a plan to immobilise radioactive elements in the residue that is to be disposed.

“Lynas must submit to the board a method to immobilise radioactive elements in the residue to be disposed in the event excessive residue is stored in the Residue Storage Facility (RSF). The method is to trap radioactive elements from being released into the environment,” the statement read.

The immobilisation method will be approved by AESB and would be made part of the licence conditions, the statement added.

The other condition is that Lynas must submit an “Emergency Response Plan” to control release of dust from the residue into the environment.

“The Emergency Response Plan is necessary in the event the water sprinkler system fails and it should include a contingency measure to provide an alternative water source on standby at all times.”

*Seems like contingency plans that Lynas have already prepared and nothing so onerous that it would be a cause for further delay.*


----------



## ROE

It always darkest before dawn 

I like stocks that has reasonable balance sheet, potential but uncertainty and fear drive it to record low.

Buffett would say: "You pay a high price for a cheery consensus."


----------



## verce

ROE said:


> It always darkest before dawn
> 
> I like stocks that has reasonable balance sheet, potential but uncertainty and fear drive it to record low.
> 
> Buffett would say: "You pay a high price for a cheery consensus."




Well said. Some more minor good news for your perusal.

http://www.bernama.com/bernama/v6/newsgeneral.php?id=673665
____________________________________________________________

_KUANTAN, June 17 (Bernama) -- The Pahang federation of non-governmental organizations in support of the national agenda (Daun) today staged a peaceful gathering here to express their support for the government-backed Lynas project.

About 500 members, including those from Pertubuhan Peribumi Perkasa (Perkasa), the federation of Peninsular Malay students (GPMS), Pekida and Mukim Sungai Karang/Beserah humanitarian welfare organization were at the Padang Kemunting grounds for half an hour, starting 10am.

Operations coordinator Zulfadzli Shamsudin said the 43 NGOs that formed Daun called on the project to proceed as it would boost the state's economy and provide employment opportunities for the local community.

"Since the Lynas issue surfaced, a lot of information had been twisted and the federation plays a role in providing an explanation and presently many youths who realised this have joined us to play their respective role," he said._
____________________________________________________________

Currently holding. DYOR.


----------



## skyQuake

Main buff on monday will be the fact that their permit cancellation request has been denied.

up 10% in the states overnight


----------



## payshense

Unless Lynas has not received official notification of the "new conditions", surely we should expect to see an announcement prior to market opening this morning.


----------



## skc

LYC can't even break $1 on a day like this with pretty positive news on the TOL. It seems like an under-reaction for a change.


----------



## PinguPingu

skc said:


> It seems like an under-reaction for a change.




Haha, yeah even having followed it closely for almost 2 years now this is one of the most volatile,  heavily traded stocks I've seen. Latest ASIC data has shorts at about 10% of stock so that probably plays a part.


----------



## PinguPingu

Nice hold above $1 today. Looks like things are coming together: http://in.reuters.com/article/2012/06/19/malaysia-lynas-idINL3E8HI58N20120619


----------



## payshense

PinguPingu said:


> Nice hold above $1 today. Looks like things are coming together:




Now all we need is a continuation of the good news in the coming weeks. ie TOL "issued", 1st shipment of concentrate is enroute to Malaysia, LAMP commisioned 100%,,, Production commenced! 

Looking forward to a mad scramble by the shorters, as SP goes up steadily in the near term.

Maybe wishful thinking, or maybe, its about bloody well time!

Not holding my breath, however, if money talks and bull**** walks, then i believe it is time for the LAMP to shine


Holding, DYOR


----------



## payshense

Malaysian Parliament adopts PSC findings, which includes handing LYC their long delayed TOL.

http://www.themalaysianinsider.com/...nel-findings-despite-radioactive-waste-poser/

LYSDY up 17.39% last night in the US.

Holding, DYOR


----------



## lenny

Does anyone know the date of the next AELB meeting?

I would presume the TOL will be issued then!


----------



## payshense

lenny said:


> Does anyone know the date of the next AELB meeting?
> 
> I would presume the TOL will be issued then!




Hi Lenny, I cant remember where i read it today. However someone suggested that the AELB meets at the end of each month. 


Holding, DYOR


----------



## lenny

payshense said:


> Hi Lenny, I cant remember where i read it today. However someone suggested that the AELB meets at the end of each month.




It has to be next week some time then?

Thanks payshense.


----------



## payshense

lenny said:


> It has to be next week some time then?




That would make sense lenny.
Next Friday is the last business day of June, the following Monday is 2nd July. Decision announced by...



Bring it on!

Holding, DYOR


----------



## payshense

lenny, here is a link to the info regarding possible AELB meeting timeframe.

http://rareearthfuture.com/2012/06/15/lynas-green-light-protestors-appeal-rejected/

Holding, DYOR


----------



## payshense

AELB To Provide Media Briefing Regarding Lynas – TOL Time?

http://rareearthfuture.com/2012/06/25/aelb-to-provide-media-briefing-regarding-lynas-tol-time/


Holding, DYOR


----------



## StumpyPhantom

payshense said:


> AELB To Provide Media Briefing Regarding Lynas – TOL Time?
> 
> http://rareearthfuture.com/2012/06/25/aelb-to-provide-media-briefing-regarding-lynas-tol-time/
> 
> 
> Holding, DYOR




The market's not going to be happy until the first shipment is sent there, gets processed and then shipped out again for some mula, are they?


----------



## payshense

StumpyPhantom said:


> The market's not going to be happy until the first shipment is sent there, gets processed and then shipped out again for some mula, are they?





Very uncertain times indeed Stumpy, who knows? 

Malaysian politics leaves us very little to be confident about, regardless of how good Lynas looks, fundamentally or technically.

As a long term holder, I am cautiously optimistic. That if Malaysia wants to have any hope of continuing to attract foreign investment, they will now let Lynas get on with the job! 

Holding, DYOR


----------



## Julia1979

*reasons for slump*

Hello Lyc-traders,

always so silent if the thing drops. 

I was pretty surprised finding the message that my 0,75 limit was filled tonight (that is your day session). Will not be for long though.
Does anyone have an explanation except for a bunch of SL-orders and instititutional short sellers?

Someone said people might have sold for tax reasons. Does the fiscal year end in June down under?

Regards and TIA
Julia

Holding short term


----------



## pixel

*Re: reasons for slump*



Julia1979 said:


> Does the fiscal year end in June down under?




yes

... and some people may need a tax loss ...


----------



## Julia1979

*Re: reasons for slump*



pixel said:


> yes
> 
> ... and some people may need a tax loss ...




thank you. 

usually people need tax losses to compensate their gains from other investments. Looking at the stock market this seems rather unlikely, doesn't it? 

Much more likely that criminal banks play their games.  They can see the big stop loss orders and take advantage of it. Same with high leverage products. They even have computer programs that detect and execute long and short squeeze opportunities. Banks and their disgusting greed have to be stopped globally.

regards Julia

Holding short term


----------



## lenny

After hitting a 52 week low yesterday its hard to believe that might be issued today.

If it isn't issued today the SP will cop a hinding no doubt tomorrow.


----------



## blackjack

payshense said:


> AELB To Provide Media Briefing Regarding Lynas – TOL Time?
> 
> http://rareearthfuture.com/2012/06/25/aelb-to-provide-media-briefing-regarding-lynas-tol-time/
> 
> 
> Holding, DYOR




AELB informed the audience today that they were wating on Nic Curtis (NC) of Lynas to supply them with plans to fulfill the extra 2 conditions set by the science minister.

NC had said previously to the ASX that they supplied info to the AELB and then went on to say that LYNAS is under know pressure and they can take their time but the sooner they supply what is required the better - so who's  telling porkies?

Also the ASIC should be actively investigating who was responsible for yesterdays stock collapse. Who had inside info and who was shorting the stock?

Also why didnt ASX issue a speeding ticket earlier?

Someone knew something and its worth finding out who! This might in some small way level the trading field.


----------



## ROE

This saga goes on longer than day of our lives TV show

Media release, Parliament inquiry/study, study group, LAMP plant tour, recommendation from Atomic board, safety study and the list goes on and on

and they still haven't got TOL 

Welcome to Malaysia


----------



## lenny

Looks set to be rough day on the market tomorrow.


----------



## payshense

:bad:

Someone needs to be made accountable for the joke that this has become. Not impressed at all. Thinking an email to ASIC to make an official complaint might be in order. Why did ASX not impose trading halt on Lynas when it was common knowledge that AELB was to make a statement this week? So many questions that need answering! Love to hear what other long term holders make of this circus.

Holding (why i don't know!), DYOR


----------



## skc

payshense said:


> Someone needs to be made accountable for the joke that this has become. Not impressed at all. Thinking an email to ASIC to make an official complaint might be in order. Why did ASX not impose trading halt on Lynas when it was common knowledge that AELB was to make a statement this week? So many questions that need answering! Love to hear what other long term holders make of this circus.
> 
> Holding (why i don't know!), DYOR




As a long term observer (I have looked at LYC for over a year)... this is the chart I can't get my head around.





If LYC share price is so low because it is being manipulated by instos and being held at randsom by the Malaysian situation, why has Molycorp fallen just as much? Will the issue of the TOL actually put the company back on an uptrend?


----------



## blackjack

skc said:


> As a long term observer (I have looked at LYC for over a year)... this is the chart I can't get my head around.
> 
> View attachment 47684
> 
> 
> If LYC share price is so low because it is being manipulated by instos and being held at randsom by the Malaysian situation, why has Molycorp fallen just as much? Will the issue of the TOL actually put the company back on an uptrend?




the most amazing stock eh
all dressed up and no where to go

i find this interesting from the AELB - She added there was no time frame for the rare earth miner to submit its proposals, and that it was "up to Lynas when they will submit".

"We do not impose a deadline or anything," she reiterated.

"But it is in their best interest to do so as soon as possible."

Lynas said in an ASX announcement that they had this covered

So answers please Mr Nic


----------



## tinhat

I haven't been following this company but I think everyone is aware of it and the story of its changes in price over the past two years.

Just a quick question for anyone willing to provide a short answer. What was the business case for developing the plant in Malaysia in the first place and why not Australia?


----------



## lenny

Seems nothing can go right for LYC atm with TOL being delayed and delayed at the same time the ree prices continue to slide now at $56 with that sliding valuations also.

Technically the SP has been rising on decreasing volume for the last 5 bars (bearish) which is looking like testing the 73 cent low imo.

Hopefully some good news on the horizon.


----------



## J.B.Nimble

tinhat said:


> Just a quick question for anyone willing to provide a short answer. What was the business case for developing the plant in Malaysia in the first place and why not Australia?




Important to remember that their REE basket value at that time of the BFS was less than $5/kg - it had to be done cheap...

The original plan was to build the refinery in Shandong, China - low capital cost and access to refining know how. 

They switched to Malaysia when China started to put the screws on exports. Malaysia provided low capital cost, tax breaks for 10 years, port and related infrastructure, key reagents produced on neighbouring sites, and access to a workforce "fluent in English and Mandarin easing integration of the company's current engineering staff"  (ASX ann 19/6/2006) 

With the benefit of hindsight there may have been better options than Malaysia but it seemed a rational choice at the time.


----------



## Chasero

So.. new lows today?

Don't know if it's manipulation, but the TOL delay is definitely hurting the share price and there is way too much selling pressure.

Who knows where it will bottom?


----------



## PinguPingu

Not quite, a lot of support around 0.75-0.74, but yowsers nothing has ever said no news is bad news like Lynas. Very glad I reduced my exposure, although I'm currently sitting on -20% on the holdings I have left. Just gotta keep waiting I guess...


----------



## payshense

Not that NC CEO tells us anything new, however I thought other LYC holders may be interested in this recent interview of NC ...

http://www.raremetalblog.com/2012/0...n-malaysian-rare-earths-processing-plant.html

Holding - DYOR


----------



## sinner

skc said:


> As a long term observer (I have looked at LYC for over a year)... this is the chart I can't get my head around.
> 
> If LYC share price is so low because it is being manipulated by instos and being held at randsom by the Malaysian situation, why has Molycorp fallen just as much? Will the issue of the TOL actually put the company back on an uptrend?




Because - just like every other smallcap on the board since post May 2010 - XSO is the ruling force. 

Small caps are getting sold and bought at the portfolio level, investors simply aren't as interested in the individual fundamentals.


----------



## lenny

Price action is looking very vulnerable atm!

Below 73.5 cents and we might see some capitulation me thinks.

GL to those brave enough to hold


----------



## notting

7th-March-2012 12:40 PM


notting said:


> I'd say 50c is about fair given the environment it's chosen and what rare earth prices are doing in general.
> Even at 50c I wouldn't be getting excited, though it would probably find allot of support.




"It's a horror story, coming true on my PC.
Shocking me right out of my brain."

Gets interesting and releveant 1.15mins :bad:



My new book is called *Valububble*.


----------



## herzy

Anyone got any idea what's happening today?


----------



## skc

herzy said:


> Anyone got any idea what's happening today?




Molycorp got sold down on a discounted capital raising overnight, but I don't know if there were any further details as I only read the headline.


----------



## PinguPingu

Many thought first feed to kiln would've happened by now, guess that's the risk when setting up in places like Malaysia. I do believe eventually Lynas will see the light of over 1$ again, *when* it finally gets its plant up and running.


----------



## rude

What are the actual hold ups? The government or isn't the plant ready to process?


----------



## Julia1979

rude said:


> What are the actual hold ups? The government or isn't the plant ready to process?




It is. The CEO is suffering from his midlife crisis though. As soon as this is over, production will begin.


----------



## lenny

rude said:


> What are the actual hold ups? The government or isn't the plant ready to process?




They are waiting to have the Malaysian elections before they issue the TOL.


----------



## ROE

Malcolm Turnbull (yes our Liberal MP) bought in last week, does he know something we dont


----------



## lenny

I'd say it's best to wait for the TOL to be actually issued before buying as the Malaysian elections might be in 2013 and god only knows what the SP will be then.


----------



## herzy

lenny said:


> They are waiting to have the Malaysian elections before they issue the TOL.




Why do you say that?


----------



## herzy

LAMP completed today - but to be honest, given the political situation, I'm surprised the reaction it did...


----------



## lenny

herzy said:


> Why do you say that?





Lynas Corporation Limited (LYC.ASX, $0.71/sh, Mkt Cap $1.13b) – Management of residue offshore increases execution risk and costs – TRADING SELL PT $0.50/sh.
 •We previously issued a sell recommendation on LYC, predicated on the TOL not being issued until post election given it remains a highly politicised issue.
•We remain of the view that the TOL will be issued post election and reiterate our sell recommendation on growing concerns regarding dilution should the convertible bonds price be reset, project execution risk, and funding implications.
•The only major change in yesterday’s market announcement was LYC announcing it is willing to ensure all material causing concern to the Malaysian public being removed through conversion into co-products and exported elsewhere in a form acceptable to international markets. 
•We don’t expect the Australian or WA government will be a willing recipient and anticipate higher execution risk and costs as a result of exporting waste material offshore.
•Latest expectations are that a Malaysian election will be held in late Q4CY12. It’s widely expected that Prime Minister Najib Razak will table the Budget on Sept 28, dissolve Parliament shortly after and then hold an election within two months.
•The expected delays will also have funding implications and cause balance sheet difficulties in the interim. 
•While the plant is now completed in Malaysia, there still remains a long lead time until cash flow generation that will need to be funded by sufficient working capital. We estimate a minimum 6-month lead-time from when the TOL is granted, which in itself could be generous given the complexity of the processing circuit, to account for ore being shipped from Mt Weld, plant commissioning, customer product qualification, and receipts from first sales.
•Total cash balance as of June 30 was $205m. $81m of that is restricted for phase 2 expansion, leaving an unrestricted cash balance of $124m. We estimate a minimum $50m was required for completion of phase 1, an additional $15m for sustaining capital, and $16m working capital spend since July.  We therefore estimate LYC currently has just $43m in working capital. 
•We estimate $8m a month in working capital requirements in a ‘stand still’ scenario. Therefore should the TOL be delayed until next year we would expect additional funding would be required to ensure sufficient working capital is in place to successfully ramp up the plant to full production.
•We would also like to seek clarification regarding a further dilution event if LYC fails to have the TOL issued by the convertible bond reset date on the 15th of October.  This is the date at which the $225m convertible bond can be re-set based on a LAMP non - approval event.
•To us, LAMP Non-Approval Event means “the Malaysia Pre-Operating Permit not being obtained by the Group on or before 15 October 2012.” If LYC has not received a TOL by 15 October 2012, we expect the conversion price is reset to 120% of the VWAP 30 trading days post 15.10.12, vs. a current conversion price of $1.25/sh.
•We recommend clients that have a position in LYC to SELL given the licence uncertainty, funding implications and additional risk of managing waste.


----------



## skc

lenny said:


> Lynas Corporation Limited (LYC.ASX, $0.71/sh, Mkt Cap $1.13b) – Management of residue offshore increases execution risk and costs – TRADING SELL PT $0.50/sh.




Can you please provide a source or a link to this? It would be nice to acknowledge the writer of this analysis - assuming it is not your own


----------



## odds-on

skc said:


> Can you please provide a source or a link to this? It would be nice to acknowledge the writer of this analysis - assuming it is not your own




It has been posted on HC. Apparently the writer is somebody from Fosters stockbroking.


----------



## rude

odds-on said:


> It has been posted on HC. Apparently the writer is somebody from Fosters stockbroking.




I can confirm it is someone from fosters.


----------



## Gringotts Bank

I feel like it's about to be sold off pretty hard.

Sitting on long term support line.  (broke it earlier today but pushed back over).


----------



## outback

Where do you get this support line from Gringott? A daily chart back to 2007 shows it jumped down through the support today, but never made it back up.

I am happy to concur that LYC is in for some stormy waters. Well according to my decaf green chamile tea it is.


----------



## Gringotts Bank

outback.  This is a monthly chart.  See what you reckon.


----------



## skc

Gringotts Bank said:


> outback.  This is a monthly chart.  See what you reckon.




That lower support lines looks rather random.

The key feature is horizontal support at 50c and that's where it's headed by the looks.


----------



## Gringotts Bank

skc said:


> That lower support lines looks rather random.
> 
> The key feature is horizontal support at 50c and that's where it's headed by the looks.




Oh come on.  Try this then.  Weekly chart this time.


----------



## outback

Hmm, all very interesting. Depending on which chart (timeframe) and how you define and draw your support lines, this alters the outcome. I guess this proves I have much more to learn when analysing charts.

The big one we agree on is that LYC is in trouble. I agree with SKC, a solid support line around 46-47c is the next stop.


----------



## PinguPingu

Fosters' report is based upon the opinion that the TOL will only be granted after the election. It is a possibility I guess, the whole situation is quite amazing. To think that a handful of people can hold up a license for months on end even when various local and international agencies have declared it safe. 

Other broker reports believe the license to be given before the election, but they had HOLD/BUY ratings with targets way above the current share price. I don't think anyone knows the outcome apart from the AELB and even they might not know yet. Huge capital decimation for a lot of shareholders though.


----------



## Julia1979

*A stock for Malaysia experts only*

Hi! 

We are on the way to the second target I introduced a year ago. 
roughly 45-50 Cents (see charts above)
My analysis of Lynas being trapped in a political situation turned out to be right.
Nick Curtis was too greedy and very short minded when he picked Malaysia.
Looks like he could lose it all now if things continue to go wrong, beeing "all in".
In any case Lynas has already lost very valuable time falling behind its main competitor, MCP. A company that surprised the market wit a additional funding this summer, something Lynas still has to come up with as cash runs out. I'm sure the honorable Mr. Curtis will find a proper way to issue a whole bunch of new shares, but will that be possible before the sovereign risk can be ruled out?

The political situation is the main factor here.
Two things have to be considered.
1. Chinese influence
2. Elections

A scenario that people refuse to discuss is btw. the opposition party winning. 
If the TOL is held up for political reasons as it seems, BN is seriously challenged.
People want reforms and are tired of the corruption as Umno losing ground. People fear the elections being manipulated and since Lynas stands for corruption anxieties too, the plunge is likely to continue.

0.565 atm, we are almost at that resistance levels already 

Lynas has a cash-machine all set up and ready to run. It's simply located in the wrong place. :bad:

Regards
Julia
(currently no position)


----------



## PinguPingu

After market announcement: LYNAS RECEIVES TEMPORARY OPERATING LICENCE 

Talk about darkest before the dawn, eh...


----------



## odds-on

PinguPingu said:


> After market announcement: LYNAS RECEIVES TEMPORARY OPERATING LICENCE
> 
> Talk about darkest before the dawn, eh...




How high do you think it will go tomorrow? $1?


----------



## McLovin

This thing will be like a rocket tomorrow morning.


----------



## Clansman

A rocket that is coming back to earth.


----------



## ROE

come to papa
The only mining stock I got and averaging down


----------



## ROE

odds-on said:


> How high do you think it will go tomorrow? $1?




Easily a dollar by week end...at this RE price Lynas can still rake in some bucks.


----------



## Julia1979

What a surprise! Congrats to the short term longs! Germans are going nuts.  +50% Most likely they will be sorry if they read the whole story until the end:

"...
*
The TOL will enable Lynas to conduct trial processing of lanthanide concentrates in stages and in limited quantities under close and continuous surveillance by the authorities.*

..."

That doesn't sound like 11k tons a year to be honest. Personally I'm not sure if trial processing in limited quantaties can generate any positive cash flow. 

Regards
Julia


----------



## PinguPingu

In previous announcements I believe TOL was said to cover phase 2, I believe in the very short term yes quantities are limited for safe ramp up (known for a while), but in the next few months we should see more clarification in quantities with first feed to kiln and first sales. The 2 year time frame is not a minimum, POL could be given before that, in fact the AELB has said its in Lynas' best interest to apply for POL before 2 years expires.  The biggest thing is the political de-risk of the plant, its here to stay.


----------



## herzy

so... to hold or to make a quick buck tomorrow/in the next week?


----------



## PinguPingu

(Paywalled)


http://www.theaustralian.com.au/bus...ck-solid-support/story-e6frg9lo-1226465961827

" First cashflow is expected from the December quarter.

..Curtis insists it would be impossible for a new government to change the law in order to stymie the plant down the track."


----------



## skc

Overnight LYC went up ~40-50%. MQG has upgraded it to outperform with $1.20 target. It is unfortunate that the political situation has impeded LYC's progress for so long. I feel happy for long suffering holders. The company can now finally chart its own course without the nonsense.



skc said:


> With target of $1.8 that's a market cap of ~$3B. You'd need something like $300m NPAT to justify that sort of market price. That translate to ~$30 net profit per kg of RE. With the LYC production cost ~$10/kg, the market price of RE must stay above $50/kg to justify a share price target of $1.8.
> 
> Add in uncertainty of the global market and economic growth forecasts (note how RE demand fell in 2009), time value discount and execution risks, the current LYC share price to me is as much a function of the rare earth market dynamics as the political situation in Malaysia.




We will test the above over the next 12 months. Good luck.


----------



## McLovin

Timely article, published just before the recent announcement, in Seeking Alpha if anyone is interested.

http://seekingalpha.com/article/844141-buy-lynas-intriguing-hybrid-asset-class


----------



## AussieBoy

Already a 50+% increase in the share price this morning


----------



## Clansman

Not now, being pegged back hard.


----------



## odds-on

It would be interesting to plot the cumulative brokerage fees vs the market cap vs reported profit of LYC on a chart over the last few years.


----------



## oldblue

odds-on said:


> It would be interesting to plot the cumulative brokerage fees vs the market cap vs reported profit of LYC on a chart over the last few years.




Better throw registry charges into that mix as well. Processing share transfers costs money too!


----------



## Julia1979

PinguPingu said:


> In previous announcements I believe TOL was said to cover phase 2, I believe in the very short term yes quantities are limited for safe ramp up (known for a while), but in the next few months we should see more clarification in quantities with first feed to kiln and first sales. The 2 year time frame is not a minimum, POL could be given before that, in fact the AELB has said its in Lynas' best interest to apply for POL before 2 years expires.  The biggest thing is the political de-risk of the plant, its here to stay.




Yeah, and my grandmother can win the high jump competition in the 2016 Olympics. 

How about if you go with the facts PinguPingu?
http://rareearthfuture.com/

One thing is for sure: It just takes a lot of time and money to conduct trial processing of lanthanide concentrates in stages and in limited quantities under close and continuous surveillance by the authorities. The authorities are likely to double check on every screw because they are the ones responsible if something happens.

I was laughing hard about the press releases today. Curtis time and cashflow projections can only taken with a great sense of humor. I mean, what is he suppose to say? Any kind of realistic statement would have raised questions he doesn't want to hear because he is likely to have no answer yet: funding. 

Let's face it boys: Lynas will need a new CR. I would like to discuss, what kind of funding you guys think is possible before the elections have taken place. Any ideas?

Regards
Julia


----------



## skc

Julia1979 said:


> Let's face it boys: Lynas will need a new CR. I would like to discuss, what kind of funding you guys think is possible before the elections have taken place. Any ideas?




With TOL and a realistic prospect of cashflow in the short term, bank debt will probably do the trick without equity raising.


----------



## wilto

The Malaysian court has delayed there decision again today, adjournment until the 08/11/12. I'm no day trader, so i'll be hanging on to my stock.


----------



## skyQuake

Realllly looks like they'll run out of money soon...

-10% in the overseas mkts


----------



## Julia1979

skc said:


> With TOL and a realistic prospect of cashflow in the short term, bank debt will probably do the trick without equity raising.




Hello! 

Realistic cashflows in the short term are now completely off the table. Not only because of another delay regarding the TOL but because of the situation that is quite obviously completely overshadowed by politics. Nobody wants the Lynas issue except maybe the opposition. So the court decision is no surprise and everybody should be able to answer the question if this situation will remain until after the elections that are likely to be held in the second quarter of 2013. My take is that the Lynas issue will be taken all the way to the federal court with a final decision in June/July 2013. 

SHORT TERM PERSPECTIVES look really ugly here. It is clear that Lynas needs additional funding as well as an agreement with the Mount Kellet hedge fund. These people are specialized on situations like the one Lynas is facing and it is very likely that they will either take legal action or try to renegotiate the bond deal. It doesn't make sense trying to discuss if yesterdays court decision triggers a reset event or not because we don't know the details of the convertible bond deal with Mount Kellet. Lynas is limited to no more than 80M of additional capital raising. They will need every cent now for another 6-9 month time with no positive cashflow streaming in. Mt Kellet knows that. So what will these suckers do now? Lower the conversion price? To what level? Nicholas Curtis has managed himself in a position that is simply horrible. He might have to accept conditions that will dilute the shareholder value significantly. The alternative of legal action looks even worse.

MID AND LONG TERM PERSPECTIVES are getting worse as well. Lynas is not the first mover outside china, Molycorp is just ramping up production as we speak. REO prices continue to fall due to expectations of additional supply as well as decreasing global demand. Just take a look at this article: http://proedgewire.com/rare-earth-press/rare-earth-prices-slump-due-to-poor-demand/ Especially Lanthanum and Cerium, Lynas core products, have continued to collaps (which hasn't been updated on the Lynas website yet btw  ). Long term price expectations regarding La and Ce are ranging somewhere at a dollar per kg, possibly even lower. 
In addition to these rather groundbreaking facts China has started to raise export quotes again. 

Below the line it looks like Lynas has missed the ride on nothing but a huge bubble. The future of rare earth production is likely to be dominated by players that can produce REO well below $5/kg. Molycorp targets an overall production price of $2.77. How is Lynas ever to become profitable if prices continue to fall?

Regards
Julia

disclosure: short


----------



## dengo

Bearish rising wedge.

Measured move target = 85 - (95 - 55) = 45c


----------



## herzy

Julia - thanks for your input, but I disagree. 

- the court process at the moment is a judicial review, not a standard appeal process. That means it's heard by the High Court in it's original jurisdiction, and can't be appealed - not sure where you get your timeframe or 'all the way up to the federal court' from: High Court is higher than Federal Court anyway

- even if the judicial review is successful, the only result is that the government must issue the TOL again.

- the current government has been re-elected every single election since Malaysia's independence (13 elections in a row)

- the current government is extremely likely to be re-elected

- the current government is extremely supportive of LYC


----------



## herzy

Unlike some suggested, the decision was passed today: positively for Lynas. Obviously appeal still possible, but with the Sultan on side, seems like there'll be little pursuit of the matter. Even if they seek leave to appeal, a stay on proceedings has been denied. Anyone else interested by this? Good luck to any holders.


----------



## pixel

herzy said:


> Unlike some suggested, the decision was passed today: positively for Lynas. Obviously appeal still possible, but with the Sultan on side, seems like there'll be little pursuit of the matter. Even if they seek leave to appeal, a stay on proceedings has been denied. Anyone else interested by this? Good luck to any holders.




And upon resumption of Trading, the Market has voted with approval:


----------



## PinguPingu

Big drops over the last few days approaching long term support here with the issuing of 80mil shares today from the Institutional placement. Perhaps those brave enough may buy in on a possible double bottom.


----------



## skyQuake

Those 80m shares have been out from Monday, lots of stock borrowed to sell.


----------



## pixel

I hope nobody got caught out in the island reversal


----------



## sirec

i'm a victim
i reckon im gonna sell it with a considerable loss


----------



## PinguPingu

@Skyquake, thanks for the clarification. 

Well I put my money where my 'brave' (or stupid ) mouth is and increased my position  today in @0.565 looking for a bounce early next week.


----------



## herzy

I also intend to buy in at these prices...


----------



## notting

I'd be waiting till it ran sidewise for a while.
Less time to lose the faith.
It's not all about Lynas
http://www.mining.com/down-30-in-a-month-molycorp-stock-is-following-rare-earth-prices-over-a-cliff/


----------



## PinguPingu

True, however the key advantage for Lynas is its low cost base in Malaysia, a lot lower than Moly's. I believe a basket price as low as $17.69kg would be the break even point for Lynas, according to JP Morgan. 

And at least 9,000tonnes is expected to be purchased by Japan next year. Of course, where the other demand will come from with Phase 2 start up is still unknown. 



> Japan will get 9,000 tons a year of rare earths from Australia’s Lynas Corp. and 10,000 tons per year from Molycorp Inc. (MCP) of the U.S. in the second half of next year, according to Yasunaga.




http://www.businessweek.com/news/20...al-with-india-on-rare-earth-production-supply


----------



## PinguPingu

PinguPingu said:


> ...Well I put my money where my 'brave' (or stupid ) mouth is and increased my position  today in @0.565 looking for a bounce early next week.





Aaand out @60.5c, minimal change in realised capital gains, just increased no. of shares held


----------



## PinguPingu

PinguPingu said:


> Aaand out @60.5c





>picking daily tops
>me


----------



## pixel

http://www.asx.com.au/data/shortsell.txt
reports 7.7M Shorts for LYC. That is over 12% of even the highest daily turnover in recent days.


----------



## notting

Production about to start.
Finally, it gets real!!


----------



## herzy

notting said:


> Production about to start.
> Finally, it gets real!!




I still think $4 might be a while away...


----------



## PinguPingu

Well lets say all phase 1 11mil kg's of rare earths are purchased (japan is already buying 9), using an RE basket price of $40 and costs at $15kg we get 15.27c EPS x10 P/E ratio thats around $1.50 and $1.25 if they can only sell those 9tonnes to Japan. Still a considerable discount to the price at the moment.


----------



## luoqi719

Wondering if it goes up or down today ... excited.


----------



## PinguPingu

Some of the lightest volume and narrowest spreads seen in Lynas lately. Will a positive court outcome on Dec 19 be the catalyst to get just a little bit of demand to move this thing?


----------



## notting

> It followed reports in *Malaysia's Chinese-language media* that Lynas' local managing director, Mashal Ahmad, had said waste from the Kuantan plant could not be exported because of international laws. But Lynas said the reports were inaccurate and that it would convert the residue into a commercially safe building product called synthetic aggregate, which would be exported if not allowed to remain in Malaysia.
> 
> Read more: http://www.theage.com.au/business/l...e-ultimatum-20121211-2b7rd.html#ixzz2EsQZkj9i



Guess who is really pushing the buttons trying to cripple rare earths outside of *China*?


----------



## PinguPingu

Sitting precariously on long term support again, Lynas seems to have a history of repeating itself. Hypothetical trade in if possible test of supply in low 50's.


----------



## PinguPingu

Wouldve been a little late on the bounce. Some interesting twitter conversations around Lynas recently.


----------



## PinguPingu

Something like 3rd appeal dismissed, no court cases till Feb.


----------



## notting

First Production on track!


----------



## scanspeak

Since Hotcopper have managed to destroy their site, I thought that this would be a good forum for ex HC members to come and form a new community. Hopefully we can get some good contributors here where the format is so much simpler and user-friendlier than the new Hot-copper.


----------



## ROE

hope call of manipulation and shorters cause my stock to drop doesn't get carry on here


----------



## TheAbyss

scanspeak said:


> Since Hotcopper have managed to destroy their site, I thought that this would be a good forum for ex HC members to come and form a new community. Hopefully we can get some good contributors here where the format is so much simpler and user-friendlier than the new Hot-copper.




Cheers Scanspeak. How about speculation (not mine but someone in a better position) that the 10,000,000 shares Nick Curtis put up to secure a loan was to develop Forge?


----------



## nioka

TheAbyss said:


> Cheers Scanspeak. How about speculation (not mine but someone in a better position) that the 10,000,000 shares Nick Curtis put up to secure a loan was to develop Forge?




More like raising finance to pay the tax on the capital gain made when he sold a lot of LYC for around $2 at the start of the tax year to June 2011 and now due. Another possibility is a payment on his yacht that is rumoured to be up for sale. He is hurting like all LYC shareholders but as Chairman, and until recently the CEO, much of that problem must be sheeted back to him anyway.


----------



## Bazmate

Bit of a bounce today... No announcements... What's going on?

Something in the Malaysian elections?
LED TV sales up...

Guessing guessing


----------



## ROE

Bazmate said:


> Bit of a bounce today... No announcements... What's going on?
> 
> Something in the Malaysian elections?
> LED TV sales up...
> 
> Guessing guessing




Malaysian Government hold on to power over the weekend election...they are pro business mob unlike the opposition anti-Lynas mob...


----------



## galumay

Bazmate said:


> Bit of a bounce today... No announcements... What's going on?
> 
> Something in the Malaysian elections?
> LED TV sales up...
> 
> Guessing guessing




Someone was spruiking them today, Motley Fools??


----------



## herzy

galumay said:


> Someone was spruiking them today, Motley Fools??




Nah, as ROE said, 'positive' election results in Malaysia. Retail investors were unduly concerned about losing the election, and so have piled in now that results are confirmed.


----------



## galumay

herzy said:


> Nah, as ROE said, 'positive' election results in Malaysia. Retail investors were unduly concerned about losing the election, and so have piled in now that results are confirmed.




No, I wasnt guessing, I actually saw Motley or one of the others spruiking them yesterday.


----------



## herzy

galumay said:


> No, I wasnt guessing, I actually saw Motley or one of the others spruiking them yesterday.




Apologies. Remember anything interesting?


----------



## galumay

herzy said:


> Apologies. Remember anything interesting?




No need to apologise! Anyway, you are more than likely correct - its doubtful the price would be effected as much by a site spruiking the shares as by the news coming out of the Malaysian election.

I didnt read the tip because I wasnt interested in the share, and now i am damned if i can find the email!


----------



## supereric

Good news for Lynas might be that yesterday Chinese central government will issue a new regulation on rare earths export market. Chinese government will treat the rare earths as the national security related goods and reduce the export quota. 
It might be a good news for Lynas soon.


----------



## pixel

Yesterday's Update http://www.asx.com.au/asx/statistics/displayAnnouncement.do?display=pdf&idsId=01481847 reads well and could easily support a rally. Tentative target: 38c; trailing stop: Close Below 30c, to be quickly raised to 32c.





I bought yesterday, accumulate today.


----------



## skc

pixel said:


> Yesterday's Update http://www.asx.com.au/asx/statistics/displayAnnouncement.do?display=pdf&idsId=01481847 reads well and could easily support a rally. Tentative target: 38c; trailing stop: Close Below 30c, to be quickly raised to 32c.
> 
> View attachment 56186
> 
> 
> I bought yesterday, accumulate today.




The announcement came after market closed yesterday...did you buy yesterday on the technical?

I am not sure the announcement reads well... it's production is well below the plant's capacity and they didn't sell all that they have prduced. There's also no mention of sale price achieved or production costs. But one thing that's certain is that they are definitely still cashflow negative based on those figures.


----------



## pixel

skc said:


> The announcement came after market closed yesterday...did you buy yesterday on the technical?
> 
> I am not sure the announcement reads well... it's production is well below the plant's capacity and they didn't sell all that they have prduced. There's also no mention of sale price achieved or production costs. But one thing that's certain is that they are definitely still cashflow negative based on those figures.




Yes, I started buying yesterday at Fibonacci support, and added today on Intraday confirmation. But don't let that influence you; I may be wrong and need to stop out on Plan B.


----------



## skc

pixel said:


> Yes, I started buying yesterday at Fibonacci support, and added today on Intraday confirmation. But don't let that influence you; I may be wrong and need to stop out on Plan B.




Thanks. You posted the announcement so had me wondering what your entry was based on. I can see the Fib levels if that's how you trade.


----------



## pixel

skc said:


> Thanks. You posted the announcement so had me wondering what your entry was based on. I can see the Fib levels if that's how you trade.




The Fibs will only come into play when "Trinity" ( http://rettmer.com.au/TrinityHome/Helps/cTrinityDuo.htm ) suggests strength. In this case, I also considered earlier breaks of those falling trendlines, Divergence in Momentum, and the overturned exit signal.




But all of that is only verified when the chart shows some clear support at the 32c breakout level.


----------



## Coppertop

HI there,

My first post here.

Still trying to get my head around the forum, format etc, as I am used to posting on a different forum.

Yes I agree with a previous poster (not sure who...as mentioned just trying to get used to this forum) in regard to the announcement. For my mind, Lynas has historically, whether by accident or otherwise, had a history of convoluted, difficult to understand or just plain vague announcements.

THe CEO has previously advised of the ramp up timetable as he sees it. Given we are at the maiden point in this (effectively) one needs to make an allowance for the fact that in any given quarter, there is always (as in any business) going to be stock held over for sale into the next quarter.

For instance, production numbers aside, it would be reasonable to think that your output or tonnage produced and to spec on say December 31, isn't to be sold and banked in October-December Quarter. Therefore on a rolling basis, quarterly output > sales is going to cross your traditional quarterly timelines (Jan-March, April-June, July Sept, Oct-Dec).

Thus, any sales arising from the December output tonnage will effectively reflect in Q1. Any tonnage output in say March will reflect in Q2 etc etc.

Not sure if/where the "stock Held" button is, but as far as disclosure goes, I hold stock in Lynas Corporation Limited.


----------



## budfox26

What is happening with LYC?

Been holding stock in this company for more than 2 years now. Bought at $1.20ish. Went up 20% the day after I bought it and I wish I sold it.

It's just been sitting around the 29 cent mark for ages. I have no idea whats happening with this company either because I can't understand the announcements.

I guess this is punishment for buying into a stock in an industry I know nothing about.

Will stick to tech.


----------



## BeeEater

To Coppertop,
Did you get banned from HC, LOL ?

To All,
I think there was a recent bad article in Motley Fool.
LYC has been a real dog of a stock.
I feel like a flea on the back of a real dog. 

PS - can't find the STOCK HELD button either.


----------



## pixel

In case you missed it: http://www.asx.com.au/asx/statistics/displayAnnouncement.do?display=pdf&idsId=01549530
LYC finally got their license ... at least for two years.

Market reacts with approval, and I thought it may be worth a punt.





Started buying at average 17c; target could go as high as 23; initial stop 15c


----------



## burglar

BeeEater said:


> To Coppertop,
> Did you get banned from HC, LOL ?
> 
> To All,
> I think there was a recent bad article in Motley Fool.
> LYC has been a real dog of a stock.
> I feel like a flea on the back of a real dog.
> 
> PS - can't find the STOCK HELD button either.




Most of us here, back a dog from thyme to thyme.
We aren't always proud to admit it!

But if you feel the need!! 



Disclosure: I don't hold!


----------



## pixel

burglar said:


> Most of us here, back a dog from thyme to thyme.
> We aren't always proud to admit it!
> 
> But if you feel the need!!
> 
> Disclosure: I don't hold!




When LYC dropped back a cent after I had bought in early, I used some language that Rosemary would have disapproved of. Luckily, after some Thyme the sp recovered, and I even added in the end.




Now, 17c has been resistance 2 weeks ago; it is therefore still possible that today turns out a false break (which is actually a misnomer. "deceptive" or "unsustained" would describe the action much better.)
Should LYC fail to get on with it, I'd stop out quickly: definitely if sellers pushed the Close Below 16c.


----------



## shanepu

*LYC - HotCopper Down*

With HotCopper down, where have the feuding bloggers gone?
There shareprice is on a well controlled slow downward trajectory, but with plenty of support at 11.5 and 11 cents.
The bots are being patient and everyone is playing a waiting game.


----------



## shanepu

*Re: LYC - HotCopper Down*



shanepu said:


> With HotCopper down, where have the feuding bloggers gone?
> There shareprice is on a well controlled slow downward trajectory, but with plenty of support at 11.5 and 11 cents.
> The bots are being patient and everyone is playing a waiting game.




HotCopper was soon up again.  For next time, HotCopper NZ runs like a mirror.


----------



## pixel

What a lead balloon that turned out to be 




If it plays out as a Head'n'Shoulders pattern, the target will be exactly zero 
On the other hand, if support holds at 11c, it could turn out one of the Buys of the Year.
watching ...

PS: Welcome aboard, ShanePU 
We're a very civilised and friendly bunch; no feuding here. ... well - not much anyway.


----------



## skc

pixel said:


> What a lead balloon that turned out to be
> 
> If it plays out as a Head'n'Shoulders pattern, the target will be exactly zero
> On the other hand, if support holds at 11c, it could turn out one of the Buys of the Year.
> watching ...
> 
> PS: Welcome aboard, ShanePU
> We're a very civilised and friendly bunch; no feuding here. ... well - not much anyway.




LYC is having some major debt issues that threatens its existence. So a price target of zero may not be that silly.

Having said that, it is a somewhat stratregic asset so I think there will be punters coming to its rescue. Existing equity holders might not get much joy out of it however.


----------



## pixel

skc said:


> LYC is having some major debt issues that threatens its existence. So a price target of zero may not be that silly.
> 
> Having said that, it is a somewhat stratregic asset so I think there will be punters coming to its rescue. Existing equity holders might not get much joy out of it however.




Trading Halt.
"integrated funding package"

here's hope for survival


----------



## skc

pixel said:


> Trading Halt.
> "integrated funding package"
> 
> here's hope for survival




Yes. Announcement out. They will survive for a bit longer. 

The question is... will it open higher or low? For a company teetering on survival, it still has a market cap over $250m. On the bright side, it survived this time and the new schedule gives LYC a chance to turn operations in the cash flow positive. The negative is that, there will be a capital raising to come, and the quarterly reports will now be scrutinised more than ever. 

At end of last quarter LYC had $38m ($33.3m unrestricted) in cash, and loss -$23m in operating cash flow. So by the end of the Sept quarter, if they lose another $20m in op cashflow, and repay $10m loan, they'd have nothing left. So you'd expect them to raise at least enough money for 6-9 months of operations and interests and loan repayments. That'd be ~$70-100m. To get that sort of deal away in an underwritten cap raising, I am going to guess a 1-for-3 rights issue @ 8.5c plus a $25m placement (raising $90m).

Here's a good article about the plight of LYC.

http://www.forbes.com/sites/timwors...-the-great-rare-earth-shortage-is-truly-over/


----------



## herzy

skc said:


> At end of last quarter LYC had $38m ($33.3m unrestricted) in cash, and loss -$23m in operating cash flow. So by the end of the Sept quarter, if they lose another $20m in op cashflow, and repay $10m loan, they'd have nothing left. So you'd expect them to raise at least enough money for 6-9 months of operations and interests and loan repayments. That'd be ~$70-100m. To get that sort of deal away in an underwritten cap raising, I am going to guess a 1-for-3 rights issue @ 8.5c plus a $25m placement (raising $90m).
> 
> Here's a good article about the plight of LYC.




How does a short position get affected when a rights issue and placement occurs? I could probably think it through but don't have the mental acuity at the moment ...


----------



## skc

herzy said:


> How does a short position get affected when a rights issue and placement occurs? I could probably think it through but don't have the mental acuity at the moment ...




Placement... usually nothing.

Rights... the shorter basically has to give the holder the "rights". Say if they do rights issue at 8c and the stock holder decided to take up those rights, it'd be the shorter who must honour that. So the short need to deliver additional shares to the owner @ 8c.

Do you have a short on LYC? Where can you still source that?

P.S. LYC up 23% in the US OTC. But volume is pretty small there.


----------



## herzy

skc said:


> Do you have a short on LYC? Where can you still source that?
> 
> P.S. LYC up 23% in the US OTC. But volume is pretty small there.




No I don't, I'm just trying to learn/absorb as much as possible organically and hopefully leverage that knowledge base in future based on the assumption that scenarios/circumstances and history tend to repeat themselves. Thanks for the response!


----------



## pixel

pixel said:


> Trading Halt.
> "integrated funding package"
> 
> here's hope for survival




Suspension.
As expected, the debt package will be complemented by a fund raising effort.
Let's then start with a clean sheet on Monday.


----------



## skc

pixel said:


> Suspension.
> As expected, the debt package will be complemented by a fund raising effort.
> Let's then start with a clean sheet on Monday.




Good to see they will get equity raising sorted before re-open again. It would be the blind leading the blind if they trade prior to the equity raising is firmed up. (Not to mention HC will explode...)


----------



## pixel

5-for-14 *renounceable* issue at 8cps plus 1 option per 2 subscribed shares, strike 9c by September 2015.

Could turn out attractive enough, especially as it's fully underwritten. Wait & See.


----------



## skc

pixel said:


> 5-for-14 *renounceable* issue at 8cps plus 1 option per 2 subscribed shares, strike 9c by September 2015.
> 
> Could turn out attractive enough, especially as it's fully underwritten. Wait & See.




My random guess of 1-for-5 @ 8.5c + $20m placement was pretty close .

With the head trading at 8.7/8.8, the buffer is only 0.7c now and it is simply not enough imo for the retail holder to stump up the money, especially considering that every one of them are at a loss. It might however be a good opportunity for some players with big short positions to cover some of the shorts via the capital raising.


----------



## pixel

skc said:


> My random guess of 1-for-5 @ 8.5c + $20m placement was pretty close .
> 
> With the head trading at 8.7/8.8, the buffer is only 0.7c now and it is simply not enough imo for the retail holder to stump up the money, especially considering that every one of them are at a loss. It might however be a good opportunity for some players with big short positions to cover some of the shorts via the capital raising.




smart thinking, skc
ASIC reports 133M short LYC. Is it worth guessing who might be behind all that, wishing the pox on LYC?


----------



## skc

skc said:


> Here's a good article about the plight of LYC.
> 
> http://www.forbes.com/sites/timwors...-the-great-rare-earth-shortage-is-truly-over/




Having another think about LYC and it's situation. I think the Jap is being really smart.

Rare earth is an important resource, and LYC is a strategic asset. Without LYC coming on line, the Jap might still be paying $200 basket price and really at the whim of Chinese export authorities. The loan to LYC is a sunk cost, but it's paying off handsomely in terms of reduced cost of rare earth. So while the Japanese it taking a significant risk on the loan itself, there are plenty of rewards already and probably ahead overall. 

So it is absolutely in their interest to keep LYC alive. And if they can do so by simply extending the loan repayment schedule and let equity holders underwrite them and fund for production of cheap rare earth, it's a no brainer. This changes of course, if there's even more alternate sources available (e.g. Molycorp). Overall, however, it's really not a good place for equity holders.


----------



## PinguPingu

Glug, glug, glug, down the drain-hole for Lynas... Wonder what the underwriters are going to do with all their stock


----------



## pixel

PinguPingu said:


> Glug, glug, glug, down the drain-hole for Lynas... Wonder what the underwriters are going to do with all their stock




Underwriters are usually quick to offload their overhang to their "sophisticated" clients.
Sometimes though, they may also hang on to it and wait for better times. If Lazarus managed to come back ...





I've started buying and will add if 5.8 becomes support.


----------



## pixel

Let's try again ...




Earlier this week, I've traded a few swingers; today's Quarterlies make good reading, especially the bit about positive cash flow. On the flip side, comments about the modified "take-or-pay" arrangements are still a bit vague, as is the outlook for future price development.
Currently, I hold a half position; if 4c becomes support and holds, I'll add; at 3.6 I'm out.


----------



## Gringotts Bank

Whoah.  The further it goes, the further it goes.


----------



## nioka

A change in the fortunes for the long suffering Lynas shareholders. The new management seems to be turning the ship around. In saying that there appears to be a leaky boat with the shares taking quite a leap up today without any news announced.


----------



## LRG

nioka said:


> A change in the fortunes for the long suffering Lynas shareholders. The new management seems to be turning the ship around. In saying that there appears to be a leaky boat with the shares taking quite a leap up today without any news announced.




Still dragging along the bottom, no change in direction yet?


----------



## pixel

Thanks, tech/a, for the reminder in your breakout thread 
For all that may have lost sight of LYC: I'd set an alert for break above 8.5c.


----------



## pixel

Today's comprehensive RE analysis, published by GGG, reminded me to revisit LYC's chart. Quite an eye-opening experience, especially with the Fibonacci levels added in:






The break of 10.5c will need to be confirmed, but it does look likely the erstwhile resistance has turned into support, with 6M bid at 10.5 vs 2.5M on offer at 11c.


----------



## pixel

If LYC's sp can get past 14c, I'll rather buy and not sell. Long-term projections as per the 4-year chart would suggest a multi-bagger.






This morning, "someone" seems to be keen to keep a lid on the sp, selling small quantities into the gap between 11.5 and 12c. That kind of behaviour is normally an indication of buying interest.


----------



## McLovin

pixel said:


> If LYC's sp can get past 14c, I'll rather buy and not sell. Long-term projections as per the 4-year chart would suggest a multi-bagger.
> 
> View attachment 71727
> 
> 
> This morning, "someone" seems to be keen to keep a lid on the sp, selling small quantities into the gap between 11.5 and 12c. That kind of behaviour is normally an indication of buying interest.




It got a write up in Chanticleer in the AFR yesterday...


> The story behind the survival and subsequent revival of rare earths supplier Lynas Corp is as much about the disciplined management of chief executive Amanda Lacaze as it is about China's decision to crack down on rogue Chinese suppliers causing environmental damage.
> 
> A third piece of the Lynas puzzle is the growing use of rare earths in magnets used in the car industry and in renewable energy applications such as wind turbines.
> 
> A fourth and final important element in the resurgence of Australia's only globally significant producer of rare earths is the role played by Japan.
> 
> Japanese entities, both private and publicly owned, kept Lynas alive by providing a financial lifeline when Chinese suppliers flooded the rare earths market and crunched prices to record lows.
> 
> 
> The resources sector is no stranger to geopolitics. It's just that in the rare earths space the protagonists were operating behind closed doors. No one really knew who was pulling the strings that manipulated prices.






Read more: http://www.afr.com/brand/chanticlee...ut-of-the-woods-20170704-gx4j5p#ixzz4m0l4MsRt


----------



## PinguPingu

The green shoots of Lynas' recovery continue to grow, price has retaken 20c and the company has announced it has repaid some of the JARE loan facility. Rare earth prices also on the move. 

Disclosure: Long at 18c.


----------



## Wyatt

I see 2 x my LYC holdings in a/c this morning, with the 2nd lot @ $0 cost. That sure makes the P&L column look fantastic!
Anyone else in the same boat or have you all jumped ship


----------



## greggles

Fantastic run over the last 12 months, but the chart is starting to look like a double top at $2.60 to me.


----------



## leyy

Anyone still holding/following LYC? I purchased more LYC at $2.31 so my average price is about $1.90 now with a reasonably parcel of shares.

The recent dip was due to the government changes with a new prime minister announced two weeks ago, so thought it was a good opportunity to buy more shares. (although there is some regulatory/government risks)

The fundamentals of the business is strong and LYC are now cash flow positive.

Amanda Lacaze (CEO) has done a terrific job with transforming the business over the last few years.

Demand for the rare earth minerals continue to rise for batteries, electronics, glass and motors etc.


----------



## greggles

Well, I was wrong about the double top at $2.60. LYC ended up hitting $2.96 on 8 May but after that declined to $2 over the next two and a half months.

Price action today and yesterday indicates that Lynas is on its way back up. From support at $2 on Friday through resistance at $2.20 to $2.38. If it can get through $2.40 easily it shouldn't have any trouble getting back to $2.60 where it will next encounter some resistance.


----------



## leyy

greggles said:


> Well, I was wrong about the double top at $2.60. LYC ended up hitting $2.96 on 8 May but after that declined to $2 over the next two and a half months.
> 
> Price action today and yesterday indicates that Lynas is on its way back up. From support at $2 on Friday through resistance at $2.20 to $2.38. If it can get through $2.40 easily it shouldn't have any trouble getting back to $2.60 where it will next encounter some resistance.
> 
> View attachment 88518



Good quarterly update.

Strong positive cash flow for the quarter $20.7M. Paid off further debt $27M.

Strong demand for rare earth's from existing clients in Japan.

I think LYC will pop once it clears any uncertainty from the new Malaysian government and there are no issues.


----------



## peter2

Good looking BO-HR for a reversal opportunity. 
Untradable for me due to too many issues with Malaysian gov't.


----------



## sptrawler

Westfarmers making a $1.5b play for Lynas, jeez it has been a bumpy ride, bought them a million years ago. But offloaded when the Malaysian Gov gave the plant a hard time, even before it was up and running.
Hopefully WES don't get burnt.


----------



## Smurf1976

sptrawler said:


> Westfarmers making a $1.5b play for Lynas, jeez it has been a bumpy ride, bought them a million years ago. But offloaded when the Malaysian Gov gave the plant a hard time, even before it was up and running.
> Hopefully WES don't get burnt.



Price is up 33% to $2.07 at the moment.

I sold today


----------



## sptrawler

Looks like the Chinese threatening to restrict rare earths to the U.S, has given Lynas a leg up.

https://www.abc.net.au/news/2019-05...na-us-trade-war-retaliate-rare-earth/11162350


----------



## Trav.

LYC came up as a buy in my scan this week. Looking at it's performance over the year you would have to be pretty happy if a holder.

Also looks like some positive news in regards to its operating license in Malaysia

snip from rom qtrly report







and below from marketindex


----------



## Chief_Wigam

Good to see LYC consistently making profit after cost reduction initiatives have worked out well for them. Malaysian government needs them and other good employers like them to help with unemployment there. I have been holding since 2011 so am down quite a lot but holding for the long term


----------



## peter2

I've been a bit disappointed that there's been no upward movement in the price of LYC shares over the past few weeks. In fact they've dropped ~20%. I'm disappointed, as there's been discussion around the world, US and Aust included to develop an independent supply of rare earths metals. Currently China produces most of the rare earths and even threatened to stop exports during the US/China trade "discussions".


----------



## tinhat

peter2 said:


> I've been a bit disappointed that there's been no upward movement in the price of LYC shares over the past few weeks. In fact they've dropped ~20%. I'm disappointed, as there's been discussion around the world, US and Aust included to develop an independent supply of rare earths metals. Currently China produces most of the rare earths and even threatened to stop exports during the US/China trade "discussions".




I'm a bit disappointed in the free world right now.


----------



## bigdog

The biggest mover today on ASX 200 is Lynas

Talk about the U.S. Army is looking to fund the construction of a rare earths plant for weapons development.  They can't go to China can they!!






Also ASX announcement Monday
LYNAS SELECTS KALGOORLIE FOR NEW CRACKING & LEACHING PLANT (uploaded)






450


----------



## bigdog

ASX Announcement today
13/12/2019 10:01:55 AM   US Department of Defence Tender






The Age reported
https://www.theage.com.au/business/...kes-on-us-military-moves-20191212-p53jee.html

*Rare earths miner Lynas spikes on US military moves*




*By Darren Gray*
December 12, 2019 — 5.52pm

Months after it spurned a $1.5 billion offer from Wesfarmers, shares in rare earths miner Lynas Corp have spiked on reports that the US military intends to pay for much of the construction of a crucial new processing facility.

A US military tender for the construction and operation of a heavy rare earth separation facility in the US is set to close within days, with details of the tender recently reported by Reuters.

*The US military is backing the facility because it wants to ensure it retains access to heavy rare earths integral to advanced modern military hardware. Industry experts say Lynas has the capability to be a part of the US plan.*

*China dominates the production of rare earths but Lynas is a major player in the global production of the valuable minerals, giving the ASX-listed miner a strategic advantage as nations seek to secure supply.*

Shares in the ASX-listed Lynas Corp surged in response to reports of the US military tender, jumping 9.7 per cent to close at $2.37.

*Rare earths could become a bargaining chip in the long-running US-China trade war, with China threatening to stop the export of rare earths to the US.*

"The [US] Department of Defence has requested companies with a capability to construct and operate a heavy rare earths separation and refining operation in the US," said Dylan Kelly, mining analyst at stockbroker Ord Minnett.

*"Lynas is the only firm in the world (excluding China) with suitable feedstock, intellectual property and experience to do so," he told The Age and The Sydney Morning Herald.*

Rare earths are crucial components of key pieces of military hardware, he noted, and the so-called _John McCain Act_ dictated that the US could not buy certain materials from China.

"Every new Joint Strike Fighter needs 250 kilograms of rare earth materials in it, in order for it to operate. The US defence applications are quite significant, whether it be smart bombs, planes or ships. Modern technology in this day and age requires this material," he said.

*Lynas is the only firm in the world (excluding China) with suitable feedstock, intellectual property and experience to do so.*

Mr Kelly said Lynas now sells 1200 tonnes of a mixed heavy rare earths carbonate into China each year in a concentrated form. But this year it revealed a plan to set up a joint-venture arrangement to separate the material at a facility in Texas.

The material would be converted into the highest value, heavy rare earth oxides and be sold to customers like the US Department of Defence.

"The US wants to make sure that it's growing its own industry all the way down the value chain. Australia offers an excellent supply of these materials," said Minerals Council of Australia chief executive Tania Constable.

"We have every commodity, rare earth element on the periodic table available in Australia. So we make a natural partner for countries that are seeking diversification of supply," she said.






509


----------



## bigdog

ASX Announcement today
17/12/2019 8:55:39 AM 1 Increase in Malaysian Processing Limit for 2019

Share price down 4%

The regulatory rejection is a setback for the group, which has a complicated history with the Malaysian Government.











582


----------



## barney

bigdog said:


> Share price down 4%




Rubbery chart at the moment


----------



## sptrawler

I expect a major player will take over in 2020.


----------



## jbocker

sptrawler said:


> I expect a major player will take over in 2020.



Chinese?


----------



## sptrawler

jbocker said:


> Chinese?



Or U.S, one will make a move to wedge the other. IMO


----------



## Chief_Wigam

UBS price target of $3.00 with US$60/kg long term NdPr


----------



## barney

Chief_Wigam said:


> UBS price target of $3.00 with US$60/kg long term NdPr




Off topic apologies ….
@Chief_Wigam ….. curious on the guitar in your avatar??

On topic ….. Last announcement 19th December 2019

_The Company’s project to build a Rare Earths processing plant in Kalgoorlie *has been awarded Lead Agency status.  *

The Kalgoorlie plant is expected to be *operational in early 2023*.  It will undertake first stage processing, i.e. Cracking & Leaching, of Rare Earth concentrate from Lynas’ *Mt Weld mine*.

The plant is expected to create up to *500 jobs during peak construction* and increase Lynas’ workforce in the Goldfields to over *200 people*.
_
Long view of the Chart indicates plenty of potential headroom?


----------



## Chief_Wigam

Yes Gibson Les Paul 2015, good sustain.

I'm a long term holder of LYC and believe in it. I think the Malaysian thing is well factored into the share price and if the Govt wanted to shut the plant down by now, they would have. They need job creation so need Lynas there


----------



## bigdog

https://www.theage.com.au/business/...al-challenge-in-malaysia-20200118-p53so3.html

*Lynas faces fresh legal challenge in Malaysia*

Lynas Corp faces more market uncertainty on Monday after the rare earths group confirmed a legal challenge has been lodged against the Malaysian government's decision to renew its operating licence.

In a statement released to the ASX after the market closed on Friday, Lynas said it had received documents filed by three individuals commencing judicial review proceedings in the High Court of Malaya in Kuala Lumpur.

The grounds of the legal challenge relate to the process followed by the government in reaching its decision to renew Lynas' licence in August last year despite public concerns over toxic waste from its operations.

*Late Ann on friday after close*
17/01/2020 5:18:12 PM 1  * Litigation in Malaysia* (PDF 71.8 KB)






303


----------



## martaart077

Perhaps foreign influences covertly supporting the litigants to disrupt lynas production.  Australia not the only country under such influences.


----------



## qldfrog

martaart077 said:


> Perhaps foreign influences covertly supporting the litigants to disrupt lynas production.  Australia not the only country under such influences.



Actually would make sense and knowing the power of chinese business interests in Malaysia , it is now obvious it was a crazy choice in the first place to have a factory there...
I should probably buy for a take over hope if the price gets hit enough


----------



## bigdog

I included Lynas in my *Tipping Competition for Full CY 2020* tips on the basis of being a potential takeover target and also the US Dept of Defence tender for a heavy rare earths separation plant

Have not bought yet!


----------



## sptrawler

Well this story highlights what we have been saying for years, why the F%$K didn't they build the processing plant here in Australia, in the first place?

https://www.smh.com.au/business/com...-malaysia-sovereign-risk-20200124-p53ufh.html

Why don't they do all the processing here, rather than still sending the product to Malaysia or the U.S for final processing?


----------



## qldfrog

Share the feeling but we all know why
Wages and higher costs with red tape, green tape,tax rates
You can have the above and still make it.. Germany the example
But you need effiiency ..


----------



## Chief_Wigam

Cost savings with cheap labour in Malaysia was no doubt the initial reason. US because transport costs too high from Australia and reduced risk

But with travel banned in and out of China due to the Coronavirus, won't this increase prices?


----------



## barney

Chief_Wigam said:


> Cost savings with cheap labour in Malaysia was no doubt the initial reason. US because transport costs too high from Australia and reduced risk
> 
> But with travel banned in and out of China due to the Coronavirus, won't this increase prices?




Chief … You never told me …. the guitar in your avatar is ??

PS Re Lynas … For anyone interested, I am backing a couple of their past employees on a Spec VML in which they are involved … 3-4 year plan  Could be wrong, could be worth a lot if right!


----------



## Chief_Wigam

It is a Gibson Les Paul 2015 model. It's called a Les Paul Less Plus. It's a bit lighter than a regular LP but has the same sustain. It's my main axe


----------



## barney

Chief_Wigam said:


> It is a Gibson Les Paul 2015 model. It's called a Les Paul Less Plus. It's a bit lighter than a regular LP but has the same sustain. It's my main axe



Sorry @Chief_Wigam … I didn't realise you had mentioned it earlier in the thread. Thought it may have been a Les

Also have an old LP (1972) Its beat up and needs work but its been like a brother to me  ... and they are heavy!

Just to keep the thread on topic  … Lynas Chart has been working down from June 2019 high around $3. Recent swing low of just over $2 …. looks to be forming a higher low at the moment  … Under $2 would not be good.


----------



## VERUS8

Chief_Wigam said:


> Cost savings with cheap labour in Malaysia was no doubt the initial reason. US because transport costs too high from Australia and reduced risk
> 
> But with travel banned in and out of China due to the Coronavirus, won't this increase prices?



Cheap labour, cheap consumables and a tax free holiday for 12 years were reason enough to invest in Malaysia. Unfortunate that the Fukushima disaster, a strong social media movement against the company due to very low level radioactive material and an incompetent government turned Lynas into a lemon. Plenty of short term trading opportunities, like most of the companies in the REE sector, but never a good long term investment.


----------



## Boggo

LYC seems to be shaping up nicely on the daily chart, weekly has a way to go still.
Something triggering an interest.
(I did buy some on the break of 1.48 yesterday)

(click to expand)


----------



## Country Lad

I wonder if it is not a case of the tide raising all the boats.  There are a significant number of share charts that look just like the All Ords.  Need to be prepared with good stops in case the tide goes out again.


----------



## Boggo

Country Lad said:


> I wonder if it is not a case of the tide raising all the boats...




Yes, definitely true but there are some that seem to be be ignoring a falling tide too.

(click to expand)


----------



## Boggo

Released today, may be helping it along ?


----------



## Country Lad

Boggo said:


> Yes, definitely true but there are some that seem to be be ignoring a falling tide too.




They are the ones I am most interested in.  I did the same in 2016 and 2019, find the ones acting differently, find the reason and make a list of the ones which may be likely to beat the market when things start improving. Far more successful than simply following charts.


----------



## barney

Lynas in the News today. US Department of Defence contract.

Phase I funding provided by the DoD will allow Lynas and Blue Line to complete detailed planning and design work for the construction of a U.S. based Heavy Rare Earth separation facility, in line with DoD Phase I milestones.


----------



## Chief_Wigam

Here is UBS valuation ...


UBS Research - Last month on 22/04/2020 9:55 PM
*Lynas Corporation "US DoD Tender Win Highlights Strategic Value" (Buy) Morgan*



Lynas wins a tender with the US Department of Defence
Lynas has announced that they have been successful in being selected for a Phase 1 of a US Department of Defence tender for a Heavy Rare Earth separation facility. This is good news. Firstly this in time could lead to a sizeable funding contribution to a new downstream business unit for Lynas. Secondly the news reinforces the underlying strategic value of Lynas business as the only non-China producer of rare earths. This value does not appear to be in sharp focus for the equity market at the moment, with Lynas trading at a ~50% discount to our NPV. Once the world begins recovery from COVID-19, we believe that global supply chains may be realigned towards a greater diversity of sources. Lynas is well placed to benefit from this in our view through new customers in the US and Europe and with potentially better pricing terms.


What are the benefits of a heavy separation facility to Lynas?
Lynas currently sells separated light rare earth products. These light rare earths constitute 95% of Lynas resource by volume and ~80% by value if all products were separated. But the heavy rare earth products are not separated by Lynas at present, so it does not capture all of this revenue/margin opportunity. Heavy Rare Earths are currently sold in an intermediate product via auction to China separators. These separators earn a margin that a Lynas facility in the US could capture and potentially expand. Lynas ore bodies are ~5-7% Heavy Rare Earths by volume in-situ, but if separated could lift from ~5-10% of revenue now to ~15-25% based on recent prices.


We do not yet factor in the potential value of a downstream facility
We do not yet include a heavy separation facility in our forecasts due to uncertainty about the economics (capex, opex, funding). In concept we think the facility might cost up to $100m. Reuters has indicated that the US Department of Defence may contribute up to two thirds of this funding task. The additional EBIT of Lynas moving downstream might be >$10m+ per annum, but split with Blue Line in the JV. Lynas should capture in our view the largest part of this from providing the feedstock, and the equity return should be very attractive if funding is forthcoming from the US Department of Defence.


Valuation: $2.68ps (DCF, 10% d.r. and US$60/kg long term NdPr)
Our price target of $2.70ps is based on our NPV estimate.


----------



## Dona Ferentes

Lynas Corporation Limited announced on 22 April 2020 that it has been advised by the U.S. Department of Defense of the DoD’s intent to award a Phase I contract for a U.S. based Heavy Rare Earth separation facility to Lynas.

Lynas has subsequently seen media reports in the U.S. of _political debate on the merits of supply from the U.S., supply from U.S. allies, and supply from other sources. _

Lynas remains one of two companies selected for Phase 1 of the project, however Lynas understands that the* U.S. government’s progress on Phase 1 is currently on hold *while those political issues are addressed.  We are committed to developing our Heavy Rare Earth separation facility and work is continuing on the plant design and engineering.  We continue to regard our Heavy Rare Earth separation facility as an attractive strategic project.

_- yes, but the orange comb-over is an impediment. _


----------



## Chronos-Plutus

Dona Ferentes said:


> Lynas Corporation Limited announced on 22 April 2020 that it has been advised by the U.S. Department of Defense of the DoD’s intent to award a Phase I contract for a U.S. based Heavy Rare Earth separation facility to Lynas.
> 
> Lynas has subsequently seen media reports in the U.S. of _political debate on the merits of supply from the U.S., supply from U.S. allies, and supply from other sources. _
> 
> Lynas remains one of two companies selected for Phase 1 of the project, however Lynas understands that the* U.S. government’s progress on Phase 1 is currently on hold *while those political issues are addressed.  We are committed to developing our Heavy Rare Earth separation facility and work is continuing on the plant design and engineering.  We continue to regard our Heavy Rare Earth separation facility as an attractive strategic project.
> 
> _- yes, but the orange comb-over is an impediment. _




Lynas looks to me, technically, that it will have a pullback. It has had a decent golden cross run, using 5 day and 20 day moving averages; and the Relative Strength Index, 14 day short cycle, is now showing overbought.





https://www.tradingview.com/chart/?symbol=ASX:LYC

A strong case though on a share price rise based on longer term fundamentals:

- Lynas' Malaysia plant restarted at 70% capacity (https://www.asx.com.au/asxpdf/20200504/pdf/44hjdf47ks2zp5.pdf)
- Lynas awarded by US Defence contract on heavy rare earth separation facility
(https://www.asx.com.au/asxpdf/20200522/pdf/44j1lrbpq5y8sy.pdf)
-


----------



## Dona Ferentes

Lynas has signed a Phase I contract with the US Department of Defense (DoD), for work to begin on building its US-based heavy rare earth separation facility.

The Phase I funding allows Lynas to complete a detailed market and strategy study as well as detail planning and design work for the constriction of the facility, with that work set to be completed in the 2021 financial year.



> "We are very pleased to have signed a contract with the DoD for this Phase I work," said Lynas chief executive and managing director Amanda Lacaze. "Heavy rare earths are essential for the high performance magnets used in electric motors, and Lynas has the feedstock, intellectual property, and track record to deliver a heavy rare earths facility in a timely and low risk manner. We look forward to working with the DoD to progress this project."


----------



## barney

Gapped up out of 2 month range ... looks good.  

There was some publicity on Rare Earths on the TV over the weekend. Hopefully the RE publicity will spill over into some interest on my VML shares as well


----------



## Dona Ferentes

barney said:


> Gapped up out of 2 month range ... looks good.
> 
> There was some publicity on Rare Earths on the TV over the weekend. Hopefully the RE publicity will spill over into some interest on my VML shares as well



I saw that on TV - the Alkane spinoff at Dubbo; ASM listing this week.
https://www.aussiestockforums.com/threads/asm-australian-strategic-materials.35477/


----------



## Dona Ferentes

Lynas Corporation is set to unveil a $400 million capital raising when it hands down 2020 financial year earnings on Monday, _Street Talk_ can reveal.

Investor sources told Street Talk that the $1.9 billion rare earth metals producer had hired Bank of America and Canaccord Genuity to oversee a deal which would see* new equity raised via a placement and rights issue.*
The mooted capital raising comes as Lynas races against the clock to build and commission a cracking and leaching plant at Kalgoorlie after being ordered to stop producing low-level radioactive waste at its operations in Malaysia.


----------



## Dona Ferentes

https://www.australianmining.com.au/news/lynas-makes-strides-amid-market-recovery/



> .... Beyond the progress of the processing facility, Lynas has expanded its product range by separating its production of neodymium-praseodymium (NdPr) to two separate products, to deliver more value for the company. Price outcomes from separated Nd and Pr were positive, Lacaze said, with the former* realising a premium* of around $US2-3 ($2.7-$4.1) per kilogram *over NdPr*.





> The company is also separating its medium and heavy rare earth feedstock, which is currently sold in the form of SEG (samarium, europium and gadolinium) to a separator in China.
> “_The market is strong and attractive and we expect that demand for and price of these elements will continue to grow as demand for high power electric motors grow,”_ Lynas chief executive Amanda  Lacaze said.


----------



## System

On December 2nd, 2020, Lynas Corporation Limited changed its name to Lynas Rare Earths Limited.


----------



## Trav.

LYC Chart below and showing some upside


----------



## Dona Ferentes

ducks in rows (the purple patch, @Trav. ?)

_Lynas Rare Earths Limited has today entered into an agreement with the United States Government to build a commercial Light Rare Earths separation plant in the United States, through our wholly owned subsidiary, Lynas USA LLC.   This collaboration with the Department of Defense is sponsored by the Title III, Defense Production Act program, which sits within the Pentagon’s office of Industrial Policy, and will ultimately be directed by the Office of the Undersecretary for Acquisition and Sustainment.    

This project is scheduled to be completed in accordance with the Department of Defense timetable and as part of our Lynas 2025 plan. Detailed costings are still being finalized; we expect Department of Defense funding to be capped at approximately US$30 million.  Lynas will also be expected to contribute approximately US$30 million under the agreement. 

The plant is expected to be located in Texas. Once operational, the plant is expected to produce approximately 5,000 tonnes per annum of Rare Earths products, including approximately 1,250 tonnes per annum of NdPr.  The plant will be able to receive material directly from the cracking & leaching plant that Lynas is developing in Kalgoorlie, Western Australia._

buy the rumour, buy the confirmation (of Biden as much as the agreement)


----------



## basilio

Just for interest. Historical perspective on LYC


----------



## Boggo

Follow up from here...




__





						LYC - Lynas Rare Earths
					

Share the feeling but we all know why Wages and higher costs with red tape, green tape,tax rates You can have the above and still make it.. Germany the example But you need effiiency ..




					www.aussiestockforums.com
				



and here...




__





						LYC - Lynas Rare Earths
					

On December 2nd, 2020, Lynas Corporation Limited changed its name to Lynas Rare Earths Limited.




					www.aussiestockforums.com
				




I still hold this and have watching it and @Trav. I took the start of the count from the March low.
The W.2 wasn't very convincing but it was all that was available.

Interesting to note the locations of the highs of both 21st and 22nd.

(click to expand)


----------



## Trav.

Boggo said:


> The W.2 wasn't very convincing but it was all that was available.



Very nice mate, and well done with this trade.

It took me a bit to fiddle with the wave count on DT to mimic your chart, which again is a lesson to take a step back when looking at the charts   



Boggo said:


> I still hold this and have watching it



And this is the part of the process that gives me the most trouble.....how long do you give the trade? I have seen so many retrace and therefore give back the paper profits. 

Looking at the chart back in 2011 with a high of $26 is very exciting


----------



## Boggo

Trav. said:


> Very nice mate, and well done with this trade.
> 
> *It took me a bit to fiddle with the wave count on DT to mimic your chart, which again is a lesson to take a step back when looking at the charts*



Find for the low @Trav., always "eyeball" that as the start point and build from there.


----------



## barney

basilio said:


> Just for interest. Historical perspective on LYC
> 
> View attachment 118867




I was looking at a very similar chart last week @basilio and contemplating the possible upside of Rare Earths Companies over the next 12-24 months.

No secret I own a lot of* VML*, who have some ex-Lynas lads on their Board.  Given the actual Rare Earth possibilities over the next few years, particularly with the "fear" of the China "domination", we are entering an interesting period for ALL R/E stocks. 

Those that have the ability to produce and earn cash from the current situation should be in a dominant position, particularly where their share price is considered.

It's not at all difficult to imagine Lynas SP doubling over the next 12 months or so, and some of the advanced Speccies (my world) should also benefit well from the R/E resurgence. 

Big opportunity here based on a combination of both Fundamentals and Technicals.  (Perfect Storm)


----------



## sptrawler

@basilio good graph, also from memory they may well have had consolidations along the way, might be wrong but I remember when I was at work one of the guys got in early and you would often see him banging his head against the wall. 😂
Next time I see him at a reunion I must as him.
But as everyone is saying, this time could be the time.


----------



## Dona Ferentes

sptrawler said:


> But as everyone is saying, this time could be the time.



Then, how smoothly will things go?








						Lifton on Biden and the security of supply of rare earths
					

The Washington bureaucracy has injected politics into the issue of obtaining a secure supply of critical materials. The first shots were fired immediately after the inauguration of the new American president. To ensure that the monetary awards would not be seen to be supporting the policies of...




					investorintel.com


----------



## sptrawler

Dona Ferentes said:


> Then, how smoothly will things go?
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> Lifton on Biden and the security of supply of rare earths
> 
> 
> The Washington bureaucracy has injected politics into the issue of obtaining a secure supply of critical materials. The first shots were fired immediately after the inauguration of the new American president. To ensure that the monetary awards would not be seen to be supporting the policies of...
> 
> 
> 
> 
> investorintel.com



Well that is what worries me, I just lack confidence with Lynas, why are they so against processing in Australia?
They set up in Malaysia, nothing but trouble with the process, so the nasty bit they bring back to Australia.
Now we find they want to build a new value adding facility in the U.S, yet Australia just gets the low value, high toxic bit.
I really find it hard to reconcile buying into an Australian company, that seems to only want to put manufacturing here as a last resort because no one else wants it.
Sounds real third world to me, I think the federal Government needs to step up and demand the downstream processing is done here, the same as happened in the 1960's when iron ore was first discovered in W.A
Being China's whipping block, is no different to being the whipping block of the U.S.
Just my opinion.


----------



## Dona Ferentes

sptrawler said:


> Well that is what worries me, I just lack confidence with Lynas, why are they so against processing in Australia?



I suspect Lynas lack confidence in the Aust political environment, where we will demand radiation treatments for medical conditions but not allow treatment nor disposal of the ensuing (low level) waste. The Scare Police did a good job.


----------



## sptrawler

Dona Ferentes said:


> I suspect Lynas lack confidence in the Aust political environment, where we will demand radiation treatments for medical conditions but not allow treatment nor disposal of the ensuing (low level) waste. The Scare Police did a good job.



Yep the five second sound grab by the loonie minority, when they are in mud huts, no one will hear them. 

Way too many people on a public service pension IMO, opinionated, with no skin in the game.
The tax payer funds them, their pensions are indexed despite the market, the taxpayer stumps up the losses.
It is time the Governments State and Federal plus the future fund, just paid out the public service pensions as a lump sum, same as everyone else.
Then we might lose a lot of white noise, by opinionated taxpayer funded warriors, IMO it is time they led from the front rather from behind a taxpayer funded shield.


----------



## Dona Ferentes

_Lynas jumped more than 9% yesterday after revealing it had won an Australian government grant to commercialise an industry-first rare earth refining process at its planned WA plant.

The company’s share price hit a high of $6.41 after telling the market it would receive a $14.8 million Modern Manufacturing Initiative grant from the federal government.

Lynas said in the statement the money will allow it to produce a higher purity rare earth carbonate that can feed its Malaysia plant, as well as its proposed US Rare Earth processing facility. The process will be installed during the construction of the company’s processing facility in Kalgoorlie.

The grant is expected to contribute approximately half of the implementation cost. Lynas chief executive Amanda Lacaze said the new refining process will contribute to reducing chemical consumption and processing costs._


----------



## barney

Dona Ferentes said:


> _Lynas jumped more than 9% yesterday _




Up another 5% this morning.   Make that 6%   

Waiting patiently for the Spec end of the R/E market to catch up


----------



## barney

barney said:


> Up another 5% this morning.   Make that 6%        Waiting patiently for the Spec end of the R/E market to catch up




The Rare Earths "bellwether" Lynas continues to look good!

Even though my "super stock" VML continues to behave like a Spec (which it still is of course),  

The R/E sector looks to be holding ground well overall.

Geoff Atkins suggested that VML will be the next Lynas.  I live in hope, lol 🤓 

Well done to LYC holders.


----------



## nioka

I've been missing in action for some time now but logged on now to see how the Lynas was mentioned on this forum. Lots of water has gone under the bridge since those early days. I often wonder what Curtis thinks about Lynas now. I posted this on another forum today where there seemed to be panic because of government changes in Malaysia this week:


"I was of the opinion that the Lynas Mt Weld deposits may not be the largest deposit but they are the RICHIST and that is why they are so valuable. They are also less radio active with the radioactivity being in the form of Thorium and not Uranium. In addition i believe you are right when you say they could be the most efficient and enviromentally responsible refining operation in the world.

One thing that Lynas has in its favor is that they also have one of the best CEO in the business. Amanda's management has been amazing. I am sure when Curtis stood down and appointed her as manager it was because he expected her to fail and his other interest, Forge, would take them over for a song. I'll bet he lies awake at night wondering how she succeeded when he failed. Not only has she been a good manager but a good ambassador and that has been needed with the political aspects of mining and processing rare earths. This need will continue as long as mining rare earths continues.

I can't imagine any reason to be bearish on Lynas. I can see many reasons to be bullish."

There are people here, still posting, that will remember the time when Curtis was prevented from selling out to Chinese interests and it was shareholders posting here that lobbied government to stop that happening. Later on when he was trying to sell Lynas assets to another company where he was the major shareholder it was shareholder action that lobbied ASIC to have that sale prevented. 

Those will also remember the early days in Malaysia when Curtis failed to get the plant operating and covered that up by blaming the Malaysian protest groups stopping the plant operating. At that time I was privy to inside information and posted the real story on stock forums. Next came the sale of most of his holdings to a merchant bank at a price above the current SP. The rumor at that time was that he had bought a large luxury yacht and when it was delivered he could not pay for it with this happening at the same time he had borrowed against his shareholding. The story was that a condition at the time was that he resign as CEO. He  appointed Amanda as CEO, probably expecting her to fail and with Lynas close to liquidation he would get a cheap takeover. Amanda has turned out to an amazing manager with political nous and has managed to make Lynas a great company and a great investment.

In the past I have talked about the Lynas story would make a great movie. It may yet do that.


----------



## barney

nioka said:


> I can't imagine any reason to be bearish on Lynas. I can see many reasons to be bullish."




I believe many agree with you @nioka 

I don't hold LYC, only VML, but always keep an eye on the "big brother" for RE sentiment 

August Highs are the short term sticking point.


----------



## bux2000

Please forgive the lack of a chart but LYC looks like it could be making that break for freedom today.

bux


----------



## Sean K

bux2000 said:


> Please forgive the lack of a chart but LYC looks like it could be making that break for freedom today.
> 
> bux




Maybe today.


----------



## barney

Sean K said:


> Maybe today.




It did try.  That $8 mark might need a little WD40 over the next few days?


----------



## Sean K

barney said:


> It did try.  That $8 mark might need a little WD40 over the next few days?




Could probably keep bouncing along for a bit longer gathering more steam. The longer that goes on the better the break out perhaps. Long term trajectory seems to be up, so just a matter of time.


----------



## Rabbithop

Nerve racking today, spend big, empty my pot.  What's the chance of this stock hitting $10 - $12? 
Looking forward for feedback.


----------



## Rabbithop

Can anyone post some post about this stock. Just curious, how far can it go..


----------



## Sean K

Rabbithop said:


> Can anyone post some post about this stock. Just curious, how far can it go..




A few questions I have: What's it's Market Cap? How much does it make? What does it cost to make it? Is it producing stuff that's going to go up, or down, in value? Is it generally trending one way or the other? Is it a takeover target? Is it a meme stock that's going into bubble territory based on a narrative? Did my Uber driver just recommend it?

This would have been a great buy on 12 Nov when it broke $7.85 and if you held through the big gap open down on 29 Nov, would be doing OK for a short term trade. If I had have done that, I'd now have a stop at about $8.65.

Chart for reference below.

Where's it going to go? Could go anywhere from here, but the trend is obviously up.


----------



## Rabbithop

Sean K said:


> A few questions I have: What's it's Market Cap? How much does it make? What does it cost to make it? Is it producing stuff that's going to go up, or down, in value? Is it generally trending one way or the other? Is it a takeover target? Is it a meme stock that's going into bubble territory based on a narrative? Did my Uber driver just recommend it?
> 
> This would have been a great buy on 12 Nov when it broke $7.85 and if you held through the big gap open down on 29 Nov, would be doing OK for a short term trade. If I had have done that, I'd now have a stop at about $8.65.
> 
> Chart for reference below.
> 
> Where's it going to go? Could go anywhere from here, but the trend is obviously up.
> 
> View attachment 133719



Thanks Sean for your reply and good tips, to ask oneself ie moi.
The chart looks good, have not been that high so now just have to keep stepping up.


----------



## Rabbithop

Rabbithop said:


> Thanks Sean for your reply and good tips, to ask oneself ie moi.
> The chart looks good, have not been that high so now just have to keep stepping up.



Off load it at mid morning with small profit. Z profit is a profit.


----------



## Dona Ferentes

$10 a share. !!


----------



## Rabbithop

Have offload with profit on my first post.
Holding another parcel, currently with profit but hoping for more..greedy..maybe if at $12 will do the jig.
Also watch PLS up up n away..


----------



## Sean K

Is it too late? Recently corrected with the rest of the market. I suppose it will follow any further corrections, but this might just provide an opportunity.

Making lots of money at the moment.

Seems like REE is very high on the agenda for governments to secure supply outside of China.


----------



## peter2

No posts since Feb22 on this valuable Aussie/Malaysian rare earths producer ! 

Today's news of a $120M pentagon contract to build another RE facility in Texas induced some demand. 
Currently building it's second RE facility in WA. 






Will we get another chance to buy LYC at $8 again?


----------



## Dona Ferentes

peter2 said:


> Today's news of a $120M pentagon contract to build another RE facility in Texas induced some demand.
> 
> Will we get another chance to buy LYC at $8 again?



Sweet timing on a bad news day . Imagine how it would have traveled on an ordinary day (if there is such a thing)

There's even a FT article
_*Pentagon bankrolls rare earths plant as US plays catch-up to China*_




__





						Subscribe to read | Financial Times
					

News, analysis and comment from the Financial Times, the worldʼs leading global business publication




					www.ft.com


----------



## Garpal Gumnut

Dona Ferentes said:


> Sweet timing on a bad news day . Imagine how it would have traveled on an ordinary day (if there is such a thing)
> 
> There's even a FT article
> 
> 
> 
> 
> __
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> Subscribe to read | Financial Times
> 
> 
> News, analysis and comment from the Financial Times, the worldʼs leading global business publication
> 
> 
> 
> 
> www.ft.com



Well noted. I missed that though there was some talk of it recently ( unless I dreamt it !! )

gg


----------



## Dona Ferentes

I've too frequently dismissed Lynas because of a few missteps, Malaysia being one and the focus on a light RE mix while the 'forward facing' stuff is meant to be where the growth is. But there's no denying their clout, size and ability to pivot.


----------



## Gunnerguy

Garpal Gumnut said:


> Well noted. I missed that though there was some talk of it recently ( unless I dreamt it !! )
> 
> gg



I have a July 7.75/7.50 put credit spread on this I sold in April or May, can’t remember. The premium was nice but also in the back of my mind was if it went down this much I would sell my protective put for more premium and be happy to be assigned the shares at 7.75.
Two strategies in one trade. What’s not to like.
Gunnerguy.


----------



## peter2

I also think they've done an excellent job in Malaysia as there is/was plenty of environmental pressure from a vocal minority. Building production facilities in WA and now Texas will significantly reduce sovereign risk for Lynas. It also establishes them as a more dominant producer (moat?). 

News covered in AFR also.


----------



## mullokintyre

peter2 said:


> I also think they've done an excellent job in Malaysia as there is/was plenty of environmental pressure from a vocal minority. Building production facilities in WA and now Texas will significantly reduce sovereign risk for Lynas. It also establishes them as a more dominant producer (moat?).
> 
> News covered in AFR also.



In a report fromThe evil murdoch empire it is alleged that  a social media war engaged by China to thwart the expansion of Lynas in Malaysia and texas. It targets the environmental record of Lynas.



> A Chinese-linked campaign that is spreading disinformation to undermine the resources sector in the West has targeted a leading Australian mineral company and is attempting to drum up protest activity to prevent its expansion into the US and Malaysia.
> 
> A report by US cybersecurity firm Mandiant reveals the campaign, known as Dragonbridge, has been operating since 2019 and consists of thousands of inauthentic accounts on social media platforms and websites that spread messages promoting the interests of the People’s Republic of China.
> 
> Mandiant says it has found a “subset” of the operations that targets Australian mining company Lynas Rare Earths, with content criticising its alleged environmental record and calling for protests against its planned construction of a processing facility in Texas.
> 
> It contacted other companies, including Appia and USA Rare Earth, in North America about the Dragonbridge campaign.
> 
> The Australian government and national security agencies over the past two years have issued warnings about “sophisticated cyber-attacks” targeting critical infrastructure in Australia.
> 
> The Mandiant report says it is clear the cyber attacks are targeting “an industry of strategic significance to the PRC”, and particularly companies that challenge Beijing’s market dominance.



Mick


----------



## Rabbithop

Only my opinion re investing in Malaysia. I like LYN but wary about its location. Wldnt hold the stock for long. Only good for short time trading


----------



## mullokintyre

Penny Wong, having been born in Malaysia, is keen to see a better relationship  according to ABC news



> As Australia's first Asian-born Foreign Minister — and indeed its first foreign-born foreign minister since Nigel Bowen in 1972 — she can draw on her family heritage to remind South-East Asian nations of Australia's image as a multicultural nation.
> 
> Ahead of the visit, she said Australia's future was tied to the future of South-East Asia.
> 
> "It's more than geography that binds us — we have genuine links in Vietnam and Malaysia: family, business, education and tourism," she said.



and in a report in Murdoch Press


> Penny Wong has reassured Malaysia that Australia will be a “reliable supplier of wheat and meat” as fears mount over a food crisis as a result of the Ukraine invasion.
> But the Australian foreign minister failed to allay lingering fears over the potential for the AUKUS security pact to trigger an arms build up during discussions with her Malaysian counterpart, Saifuddin Abdullah, on Tuesday
> 
> Senator Wong made the commitment to help Malaysia overcome food supply constraints in her first visit to the country of her birth since the labor party’s election victory last month.
> The two also agreed to work to improve two-way trade, which has soared more than 30 per cent since 2020 to $US40bn ($57.7bn) a year.



So it might be hoped that the new level of friendship may assist the likes of Lynas in its endeavours.
Still wish they had built the plan right here in Oz.
Mick


----------



## Rabbithop

mullokintyre said:


> Penny Wong, having been born in Malaysia, is keen to see a better relationship  according to ABC news
> 
> 
> and in a report in Murdoch Press
> 
> So it might be hoped that the new level of friendship may assist the likes of Lynas in its endeavours.
> Still wish they had built the plan right here in Oz.
> Mick



But..but..but how do one corrects corruptions..no more to add..just read what ever you like.


----------



## qldfrog

Rabbithop said:


> But..but..but how do one corrects corruptions..no more to add..just read what ever you like.



I would be very scared: the economic power in Malaysia is in the hands of "overseas Chineses".
These are considered Chinese by BJ, with obligations vs the motherland.
O/S chinese plus native malaus often placed by corruption in key posts...
A recipe for disasters for western, especially Australian companies whose CEOs would end up in jail for corruption if they allow bribes....
Let the market law play😂


----------



## Sean K

Hitting significant support again. On balance should bounce.


----------



## qldfrog

Turkey discovers world's second largest rare earth reserve; Lynas shares plunge
					

Lynas (ASX: LYC) shares plunge -6% after Turkey discovers a bonzanda 694m tonnes of rare earth elements.




					www.marketindex.com.au


----------



## rcw1

Dona Ferentes said:


> I've too frequently dismissed Lynas because of a few missteps, Malaysia being one and the focus on a light RE mix while the 'forward facing' stuff is meant to be where the growth is. But there's no denying their clout, size and ability to pivot.



Good evening Dona Ferentes,
Having Amanda Lacaze at the helm, IMO helped allot.  

Kind regards
rcw1


----------



## Garpal Gumnut

I've oft thought of wading in to LYC.

What has always held me back is Sovereign Risk.

I find the governance practised by the cousins in Malaysia just a bit too lacking. 

gg


----------



## rcw1

Garpal Gumnut said:


> I've oft thought of wading in to LYC.
> 
> What has always held me back is Sovereign Risk.
> 
> I find the governance practised by the cousins in Malaysia just a bit too lacking.
> 
> gg



Good evening Garpal Gumnut,
REE has great demand, likely to continue Medium Long term (a rcw1 opinion).   Truthfully, had the same concerns once upon a time re 'sovereign risk'. Not anymore though, far from it    Holding at present.
Kind regards

rcw1


----------



## rcw1

A further article on the back of qldfrog post from Friday regarding Turkey's REE discovery.  




__





						Turkey just disclosed the second-largest reserve of rare earth — but its value is still up in the air
					






					www.morningstar.com
				




Kind regards
rcw1


----------



## Dona Ferentes

rcw1 said:


> A further article on the back of qldfrog post from Friday regarding Turkey's REE discovery.
> 
> 
> 
> 
> __
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> Turkey just disclosed the second-largest reserve of rare earth — but its value is still up in the air
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> www.morningstar.com
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> Kind regards
> rcw1



Thanks ...  As they say, rare earths aren't that rare.

BTW, the northern amphibian who contributes for some perverse reason has me and others on _block_. No loss, if fact the average quality of input is higher than if I had to read his stuff


----------



## Sean K

Seems to be respecting the support line at the moment. Just. Looking for longer term fundamental bargains during this correction/recession/depression. Not sure why they have $1b in the bank. Are their development-construction costs that much?


----------



## rcw1

Sean K said:


> Seems to be respecting the support line at the moment. Just. Looking for longer term fundamental bargains during this correction/recession/depression. Not sure why they have $1b in the bank. Are their development-construction costs that much?
> 
> View attachment 144235
> 
> 
> View attachment 144234



Good afternoon Sean K

Great question.
rcw1 comments:

Lynas says it faced major water supply disruptions, which led to lower production volumes, but has since implemented strategies to reduce water supply issues moving forward - not sure of costings to fix this;
Building two more rare earths facilities, -  Kalgoorlie to process material from the Mt Weld mine and a separation plant in the US - not quite sure of the costings ... ;
Their loan back to Japan; and
*(Brace yourself ha ha ha ha) - to pay for a dividend!!  *

Kind regards
rcw1


----------



## rcw1

Lynas raised to Outperform on 19 July 22:  CLSA.  (News Corp media) 

Kind regards
rcw1


----------



## Sean K

rcw1 said:


> Good afternoon Sean K
> 
> Great question.
> rcw1 comments:
> 
> Lynas says it faced major water supply disruptions, which led to lower production volumes, but has since implemented strategies to reduce water supply issues moving forward - not sure of costings to fix this;
> Building two more rare earths facilities, -  Kalgoorlie to process material from the Mt Weld mine and a separation plant in the US - not quite sure of the costings ... ;
> Their loan back to Japan; and
> *(Brace yourself ha ha ha ha) - to pay for a dividend!!  *
> 
> Kind regards
> rcw1




I can't find their debt in their quarterly. Looks like they're just flush with cash and it's just going to keep growing. I'm a little confused. I'm less confused about the chart and around $8 looks like a bottom at the moment. I'm in.


----------



## rcw1

Good evening,
theenterpreter.  An article by Divyanshu Jindal.  25/07/22

US cybersecurity firm Mandiant has issued a warning about China's ability to influence social media outlets which support China's political and strategic interests.  There has been previous media attention which has identified inauthentic social media accounts used to target LYC.  Jindal has reported that this strategy was also adopted to target, American company USA Rare Earth and Canadian miner Appia Rare Earths and Uranium Corp, for sinister proposes.  The dissemination of disinformation to adversely mould public opinion against companies mining/refining rare earth elements.  It is argued that China targets adversaries and competitors by controlling all aspects of the rare earth elements trade.

According to Jindal, since 2020, India and Australia have moved towards strengthening  their partnerships in the rare earth industry, India to obtain extraction and refining knowledge and Australia to establish another market with demand and economies of scale.

LYC has positioned itself in a very good position to prosper well into the future.  Time will surely tell.  
rcw1 trades LYC regularly.  Currently holding.  Kindly conduct your own due diligence and have a very nice night.









						An element of doubt? Rare earths targeted in disinfo campaign
					

Attempts to break China’s stranglehold on crucial materials for the digital age are targeted – where else but online.




					www.lowyinstitute.org
				




Kind regards
rcw1


----------



## rcw1

Good evening,
Demand for Rare Earth Elements (REE) in robotics has been flagged within the following article,_ Rare Earth Permanent Magnets Carry Development Potentials Comparable to NEV Sector [Institutional Comment], dated 28 July 2022._
It has been revealed within the article, humanoid robot Optimus, which is scheduled to be launched 30 September this year, will contain 4kg/unit of high-performance NdFeB (neodymium magnet).   There is speculation that annual output will reach 5 million units by 2025 with demand for high-performance NdFeB materials totaling 20,000 mt.   It is anticipated globally that the robot industry would trigger increased demand.






						Rare Earth Permanent Magnets Carry Development Potentials Comparable to NEV Sector [Institutional Comment]_SMM | Shanghai Non ferrous Metals
					

With the rapid development of the robot industry, the rare earth permanent magnet industry is expected to usher in a new growth era comparable to that of new energy vehicles. At the same time, the acceleration of the industrialisation of humanoid robots may further increase the demand for...




					news.metal.com
				




Have a very nice weekend.

Kind regards
rcw1


----------



## Sean K

So, some of that treasury goes to Mt Weld expansion. Mr Market seems to think it's a good use of cash.


----------



## rcw1

Plenty written today about LYC, generating further articles, discussion, abundance real good marketing value, assumptions, SP gain with a frenzy of depth, buyers out numbering the sellers by a long shot.  Buyers coming out of the woodwork, speculation and hopes abound.

Smart move this one, this announcement, this spend, for mine.  Timed absolutely perfectly.  A puppeteer, funnily enough, not much take with financials but plenty of take with spend.  ha ha ha ha...  Very mindful of how one must be careful and how things can go terribly wrong.  Just cannot figure out right now, exactly what though.

Kindly perform your own due diligence.

Kind regards
rcw1


----------



## rcw1

Good evening,
Always enjoyed Lacaze commenting about the future direction of LYC.  Gives shareholders some confidence about the companies overall capacity to succeed.  This publication, Digger and Dealers article by Josh Chiat, Stockhead 4 August 2022 provides some excellent incite into the stratgic nature of LYC and governance.  

https://www.theaustralian.com.au/business/stockhead/diggers-and-dealers-booming-rare-eart[…]0-lynas-says/news-story/98f1e3974130aeceb51bda8f08f4a67d

_“When my board just recently asked me for a detailed Capital Management Plan, I think that (growth v dividends) was their intention in asking for it,”_ Lacaze said.  _“Every time there is a challenge and we talked to our large investors about should we be investing for growth or should we be returning capital to investors?  “And the direction from our investors has been exclusively, ‘you’re in a growth market, reinvest for growth.’

“They see the benefit of that in the capital growth of the stock and those sorts of things *but there will be become a time when that equation changes. But today, every large investor that we have says put your money into growing the business.”   *_

Agreed whilst depth and volume maintained.

Nice, to hear though, maybe there is that semblance of appetite for a dividend for LYC shareholders, but not quite yet  

Kind regards
rcw


----------



## rcw1

Good evening
An article written by Mel Sanderson, 10 August 2022 for InvestorIntel.
Comments about the wise business choices/options taken by LYC.  _"Nonetheless, kudos to Lynas for a bold move, going for market share in a booming market with positive political signals and economic momentum."_










						Lynas Bets $500 Million on Rare Earths Market Expansion
					

Lynas Rare Earths Ltd.‘s (ASX: LYC) August 3 announcement that it will invest an additional $500 million to rewrite its own already aggressive growth plan is risky, sure, but then, when it comes to rare earths, what isn’t? Managing Director Amanda Lacaze appears to be reading the demand-pull...




					investorintel.com
				




Kind regards
rcw1


----------



## Rabbithop

rcw1 said:


> Good evening
> An article written by Mel Sanderson, 10 August 2022 for InvestorIntel.
> Comments about the wise business choices/options taken by LYC.  _"Nonetheless, kudos to Lynas for a bold move, going for market share in a booming market with positive political signals and economic momentum."_
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> Lynas Bets $500 Million on Rare Earths Market Expansion
> 
> 
> Lynas Rare Earths Ltd.‘s (ASX: LYC) August 3 announcement that it will invest an additional $500 million to rewrite its own already aggressive growth plan is risky, sure, but then, when it comes to rare earths, what isn’t? Managing Director Amanda Lacaze appears to be reading the demand-pull...
> 
> 
> 
> 
> investorintel.com
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> Kind regards
> rcw1



Good day to you, Row. Well Done for holding on. I, traded it for a while. My $10 target was a bit too long for me to hold for result at that time so did walked out. Still watching.


----------



## rcw1

Rabbithop said:


> Good day to you, Row. Well Done for holding on. I, traded it for a while. My $10 target was a bit too long for me to hold for result at that time so did walked out. Still watching.



Hey Rabbithop, thanks mate.  Offloaded at the $10.23 mark, free carry shares kept in the bottom draw plus normal run of the mill day trading effort.  Excellent gain on this occasion.  She's a beast of a stock ...  Anyways, see what it does today, a new day new challenges ha ha h ha.   I touch base with farmerge pretty much daily, I'll say hello from you, he will like that.  
kind regards
rcw1


----------



## Rabbithop

rcw1 said:


> Hey Rabbithop, thanks mate.  Offloaded at the $10.23 mark, free carry shares kept in the bottom draw plus normal run of the mill day trading effort.  Excellent gain on this occasion.  She's a beast of a stock ...  Anyways, see what it does today, a new day new challenges ha ha h ha.   I touch base with farmerge pretty much daily, I'll say hello from you, he will like that.
> kind regards
> rcw1



Thanks mate. Which Forum is he on?


----------



## rcw1

fdi intelligence article dated 17 August 2022 talks more about 'Chinese spin and misinformation'.  Also, wasn't aware that Norway has a significant potential resource for rare earths, and Sweden has the potential for byproduct extraction of rare earths in the near term.   Might research this more.









						Beijing-linked influence campaign takes aim at Western investors
					

Lynas and other rare earths companies have seen a flurry of China-originated online claims




					www.fdiintelligence.com
				




Have a very nice day.

Kind regards
rcw1


----------



## Sean K

Another cracker of a FY return when comparing YoY for certain commodities. Mostly appreciated by the market with a few of these companies having doubled over the past year or two. LYC off highs but did find support at $8. Looks like they're going to need all that cash for growth capex over the next couple of years.

With a move away from China to secure our own critical minerals I think producers outside China for things like REE, Li, Ti, etc may still see strong growth. Only a possible World wide depression or not impossible war over Taiwan could be be a stumbling block.


----------



## Rabbithop

Good day to all. Got to laugh when I read your post this morning. In fact I put an outstanding Buy for $8. Revise it for lower price if the wind changes direction.


----------



## rcw1

Good morning
Published today in New Corp media

Lynas cut to Sell: Ord Minnett
Have a very nice day, today.

Kind regards
rcw1


----------



## Rabbithop

rcw1 said:


> Good morning
> Published today in New Corp media
> 
> Lynas cut to Sell: Ord Minnett
> Have a very nice day, today.
> 
> Kind regards
> rcw1



MHO, interested within this range 6 to 7 with another ASX down day. We are lucky, it's our reporting season.


----------



## rcw1

Rabbithop said:


> MHO, interested within this range 6 to 7 with another ASX down day. We are lucky, it's our reporting season.



Jury is still out for mine ... Most interesting.  

Kind regards
rcw1


----------



## Rabbithop

rcw1 said:


> Jury is still out for mine ... Most interesting.
> 
> Kind regards
> rcw1



✌Retired's pocket money is restricted. This is not one of my stock that I must own thus my low entry price. It's down to my personal preference in trading. Current no1 on my list is PLS..


----------



## rcw1

Good evening
Announcement today.  Judicial review proceedings commenced before the Kuantan High Court in Malaysia by an anti-Lynas activist.  Lynas is not named as a party to the proceedings.  SP hit a low of $8.375, recovering a tad to close at 8.62.  Not concerned at the point in time.



			https://cdn-api.markitdigital.com/apiman-gateway/CommSec/commsec-node-api/1.0/event/document/1410-02560640-6KDBSEQKL1JTPTR8PMSHCM39FS/pdf?access_token=0007uY6w9vtVTjnazlDViVzGbham
		


Have a wonderful night.

Kind regards
rcw1


----------



## rcw1

Good afternoon
LYC announcement.  See attached.  

LYC has signed new agreements with Japan Australia Rare Earths B.V. (JARE).  Lynas and JARE are parties to a long term senior loan facility, with a principal balance of US$141 million, an interest rate of 2.5% p.a. and a maturity date of 30 June 2030 (“Loan Facility”).  JARE will:

Provide a contribution of US$9 million to the exploration program at Mt Weld via subscription for ordinary shares in Lynas at 5-day volume-weighted average price; 
Provide technical support towards exploration program; and
JARE has agreed to remove capital management restrictions in the US $141 million Loan Facility.
rcw1 likes this arrangement  

Kind regards
rcw1


----------



## qldfrog

rcw1 said:


> Good afternoon
> LYC announcement.  See attached.
> 
> LYC has signed new agreements with Japan Australia Rare Earths B.V. (JARE).  Lynas and JARE are parties to a long term senior loan facility, with a principal balance of US$141 million, an interest rate of 2.5% p.a. and a maturity date of 30 June 2030 (“Loan Facility”).  JARE will:
> 
> Provide a contribution of US$9 million to the exploration program at Mt Weld via subscription for ordinary shares in Lynas at 5-day volume-weighted average price;
> Provide technical support towards exploration program; and
> JARE has agreed to remove capital management restrictions in the US $141 million Loan Facility.
> rcw1 likes this arrangement
> 
> Kind regards
> rcw1



Could not buy it this morning, seems that the news was shared among some based on price action


----------



## rcw1

qldfrog said:


> Could not buy it this morning, seems that the news was shared among some based on price action



Good evening qldfrog
rcw1 neither, but did make a sale for a small profit.
Not holding

kind regards
rcw1


----------



## rcw1

Good evening

Published The Motley Fool this afternoon (12/09/22)
*Is the Lynas share price a buy?*​The broker Macquarie currently has a neutral rating on the business, with a price target of $9.50. That implies a possible rise of mid-single-digits for Lynas over the next 12 months. However, it noted that rare earth prices have recently fallen back.

The broker Ord Minnett is much less optimistic about Lynas’ prospects. It has a sell rating with a price target of just $4.85. That implies a possible fall of more than 45% from here. The broker notes the high level of capital expenditure that Lynas is planning to spend on its projects, with project execution being a potential risk. It also pointed out that the Lynas share price has fallen.

*Looking at the Lynas share price and projections, Macquarie thinks Lynas is valued at 13 times FY23’s estimated earnings and Ord Minnett thinks Lynas is priced at under 11 times FY23’s estimated earnings.*

Ha ha ha ha.  

Kind regards
rcw1


----------



## DrBourse

rcw1 said:


> Good evening
> 
> Published The Motley Fool this afternoon (12/09/22)
> *Is the Lynas share price a buy?*​The broker Macquarie currently has a neutral rating on the business, with a price target of $9.50. That implies a possible rise of mid-single-digits for Lynas over the next 12 months. However, it noted that rare earth prices have recently fallen back.
> 
> The broker Ord Minnett is much less optimistic about Lynas’ prospects. It has a sell rating with a price target of just $4.85. That implies a possible fall of more than 45% from here. The broker notes the high level of capital expenditure that Lynas is planning to spend on its projects, with project execution being a potential risk. It also pointed out that the Lynas share price has fallen.
> 
> *Looking at the Lynas share price and projections, Macquarie thinks Lynas is valued at 13 times FY23’s estimated earnings and Ord Minnett thinks Lynas is priced at under 11 times FY23’s estimated earnings.*
> 
> Ha ha ha ha.
> 
> Kind regards
> rcw1



Hi rcw1.

B careful with LYC – Rare Earths may become obsolete &/or irrelevant in the near future.

Spin doctors may use their *excessive enthusiasm* to convince Newbies that LYC is the next best thing to Sliced Bread, all in an attempt to pump up the SP so they can sell at a profit B4 the LYC Ship Sinks.

Part of the reason for LYC’s recent pullback is because New Technologies are evolving atm, they will prob take 5 years to develop into a marketable product, but the writing is on the wall for some of the important Rare Earths.
*Google "Alternatives to Rare Earths".*

Just ran my slide rule over LYC this morning –

*Bad points* = Bad PE in relation to NTA, Price is trading at well above NTA, SP is expensive in relation to Av of Last 3 Yrs EPS, Excessive Debt relative to Owners Earnings.

*Good Points* = Balance Sheet Ratios & Margins of Safety (MOS) rate as “Good”.


LYC’s current IV is $7.11 to $7.96. (the Dark Maroon Rectangle on the Chart below)
The Ord Minnett call of $4.85 is pretty close to my TA call of $5.11, Note the recent *Triple Top*, then the *Lower Highs & Lower Lows.*





I personally like the Ord Minnett “_*direct and blunt attitude*_” to their analysis.


All I’m suggesting is that you “Be Careful” with the Rare Earths Sector.

AND

That you do *Lots, and Lots* of your own research.

Remember that the idea is to buy stocks that are Below their calculated Intrinsic Value - LYC is way above that figure, and as the LYC SP drops, their IV will also drop, until the SP reaches a price that matches the "Average Punters expectations."

As usual, I’m Happy to email my research to you.



Cheers M8.


----------



## Sean K

DrBourse said:


> Hi rcw1.
> 
> B careful with LYC – Rare Earths may become obsolete &/or irrelevant in the near future.
> 
> Spin doctors may use their *excessive enthusiasm* to convince Newbies that LYC is the next best thing to Sliced Bread, all in an attempt to pump up the SP so they can sell at a profit B4 the LYC Ship Sinks.
> 
> Part of the reason for LYC’s recent pullback is because New Technologies are evolving atm, they will prob take 5 years to develop into a marketable product, but the writing is on the wall for some of the important Rare Earths.
> *Google "Alternatives to Rare Earths".*
> 
> Just ran my slide rule over LYC this morning –
> 
> *Bad points* = Bad PE in relation to NTA, Price is trading at well above NTA, SP is expensive in relation to Av of Last 3 Yrs EPS, Excessive Debt relative to Owners Earnings.
> 
> *Good Points* = Balance Sheet Ratios & Margins of Safety (MOS) rate as “Good”.
> 
> 
> LYC’s current IV is $7.11 to $7.96. (the Dark Maroon Rectangle on the Chart below)
> The Ord Minnett call of $4.85 is pretty close to my TA call of $5.11, Note the recent *Triple Top*, then the *Lower Highs & Lower Lows.*
> View attachment 146758
> 
> 
> I personally like the Ord Minnett “_*direct and blunt attitude*_” to their analysis.
> 
> 
> All I’m suggesting is that you “Be Careful” with the Rare Earths Sector.
> 
> AND
> 
> That you do *Lots, and Lots* of your own research.
> 
> Remember that the idea is to buy stocks that are Below their calculated Intrinsic Value - LYC is way above that figure, and as the LYC SP drops, their IV will also drop, until the SP reaches a price that matches the "Average Punters expectations."
> 
> As usual, I’m Happy to email my research to you.
> 
> 
> 
> Cheers M8.




What are the new technologies to replace REE Dr B?


----------



## DrBourse

Sean K said:


> What are the new technologies to replace REE Dr B?



Hi Sean,
Way too many options for me to list here - as I mentioned, perhaps 'Google' - *"Alternatives to Rare Earths".*


----------



## Rabbithop

DrBourse said:


> Hi rcw1.
> 
> B careful with LYC – Rare Earths may become obsolete &/or irrelevant in the near future.
> 
> Spin doctors may use their *excessive enthusiasm* to convince Newbies that LYC is the next best thing to Sliced Bread, all in an attempt to pump up the SP so they can sell at a profit B4 the LYC Ship Sinks.
> 
> Part of the reason for LYC’s recent pullback is because New Technologies are evolving atm, they will prob take 5 years to develop into a marketable product, but the writing is on the wall for some of the important Rare Earths.
> *Google "Alternatives to Rare Earths".*
> 
> Just ran my slide rule over LYC this morning –
> 
> *Bad points* = Bad PE in relation to NTA, Price is trading at well above NTA, SP is expensive in relation to Av of Last 3 Yrs EPS, Excessive Debt relative to Owners Earnings.
> 
> *Good Points* = Balance Sheet Ratios & Margins of Safety (MOS) rate as “Good”.
> 
> 
> LYC’s current IV is $7.11 to $7.96. (the Dark Maroon Rectangle on the Chart below)
> The Ord Minnett call of $4.85 is pretty close to my TA call of $5.11, Note the recent *Triple Top*, then the *Lower Highs & Lower Lows.*
> View attachment 146758
> 
> 
> I personally like the Ord Minnett “_*direct and blunt attitude*_” to their analysis.
> 
> 
> All I’m suggesting is that you “Be Careful” with the Rare Earths Sector.
> 
> AND
> 
> That you do *Lots, and Lots* of your own research.
> 
> Remember that the idea is to buy stocks that are Below their calculated Intrinsic Value - LYC is way above that figure, and as the LYC SP drops, their IV will also drop, until the SP reaches a price that matches the "Average Punters expectations."
> 
> As usual, I’m Happy to email my research to you.
> 
> 
> 
> Cheers M8.



Good Morning Dr. Good to see your chart and again I am almost right in waiting for $4 plus, not in a hurry to have it for Trading and not for long term.


----------



## Miner

DrBourse said:


> Hi Sean,
> Way too many options for me to list here - as I mentioned, perhaps 'Google' - *"Alternatives to Rare Earths".*



Hello @DrBourse 
Good points.
As a disclosure I do hold LYC of a small amount and the price has gone south. But on technical merit, I believe Lynas has a great future.
Look at the offtakes guaranteed. Fund is from Japan. Why because people other than PRC, see Lynas as a great future alternative to China.
In addition, the company is so confident that the study cycle needs to have a relook to capture the early hanging fruits.
I am unsure to be buying to the idea that price will come down under $5. Many a times fundies are wrong and then they provide comments on market to bring down the price .


----------



## rcw1

DrBourse said:


> Hi rcw1.
> 
> B careful with LYC – Rare Earths may become obsolete &/or irrelevant in the near future.
> 
> Spin doctors may use their *excessive enthusiasm* to convince Newbies that LYC is the next best thing to Sliced Bread, all in an attempt to pump up the SP so they can sell at a profit B4 the LYC Ship Sinks.
> 
> Part of the reason for LYC’s recent pullback is because New Technologies are evolving atm, they will prob take 5 years to develop into a marketable product, but the writing is on the wall for some of the important Rare Earths.
> *Google "Alternatives to Rare Earths".*
> 
> Just ran my slide rule over LYC this morning –
> 
> *Bad points* = Bad PE in relation to NTA, Price is trading at well above NTA, SP is expensive in relation to Av of Last 3 Yrs EPS, Excessive Debt relative to Owners Earnings.
> 
> *Good Points* = Balance Sheet Ratios & Margins of Safety (MOS) rate as “Good”.
> 
> 
> LYC’s current IV is $7.11 to $7.96. (the Dark Maroon Rectangle on the Chart below)
> The Ord Minnett call of $4.85 is pretty close to my TA call of $5.11, Note the recent *Triple Top*, then the *Lower Highs & Lower Lows.*
> View attachment 146758
> 
> 
> I personally like the Ord Minnett “_*direct and blunt attitude*_” to their analysis.
> 
> 
> All I’m suggesting is that you “Be Careful” with the Rare Earths Sector.
> 
> AND
> 
> That you do *Lots, and Lots* of your own research.
> 
> Remember that the idea is to buy stocks that are Below their calculated Intrinsic Value - LYC is way above that figure, and as the LYC SP drops, their IV will also drop, until the SP reaches a price that matches the "Average Punters expectations."
> 
> As usual, I’m Happy to email my research to you.
> 
> 
> 
> Cheers M8.



Good evening Dr Bourse
Always lovely reading your responses, thanks for that. As professional, as always.

The days of the investment side of rcw1 association with LYC are long gone.  Once it hit $10 sometime back.  Mahail forecast that one. Have you heard from him Dr Bourse??  Would luv to ask him whether he actually did offload his LYC stash at $10 plus as he always indicated he would, rcw1 would hat off to him.

So mate, been milking that cow, fast trading LYC, most rewarding for rcw1, true that ... why would rcw1 want to stop that steady flow of earn  

Do note that SP has dropped maybe 20% from last year.  ha ha ha ha ha.  

_## Latest announcement today (13/09/22)  more water supply issues in Malaysia._

Talk soon.

Kind regards
rcw1


----------



## Rabbithop

rcw1 said:


> Good evening Dr Bourse
> Always lovely reading your responses, thanks for that. As professional, as always.
> 
> The days of the investment side of rcw1 association with LYC are long gone.  Once it hit $10 sometime back.  Mahail forecast that one. Have you heard from him Dr Bourse??  Would luv to ask him whether he actually did offload his LYC stash at $10 plus as he always indicated he would, rcw1 would hat off to him.
> 
> So mate, been milking that cow, fast trading LYC, most rewarding for rcw1, true that ... why would rcw1 want to stop that steady flow of earn
> 
> Do note that SP has dropped maybe 20% from last year.  ha ha ha ha ha.
> 
> _## Latest announcement today (13/09/22)  more water supply issues in Malaysia._
> 
> Talk soon.
> 
> Kind regards
> rcw1



I am more worried for Mahail if he didnt off load LIT n SPL! I believe at that time, he did have a fair amt in LIT!


----------



## JohnDe

Sell off today. Troubles with LYC, or just the whole market? Rare earths sentiment is flying.


----------



## DrBourse

JohnDe said:


> Sell off today. Troubles with LYC, or just the whole market? Rare earths sentiment is flying.
> 
> 
> 
> View attachment 147292



Yeah "sentiment is flying OUT THE WINDOW".
After you all read that article JD just posted - suggest that REE Punters do a Google Search for "Alternatives to Rare Earth Elements", that search may explain the Troubles with REE Stocks.


----------



## rcw1

JohnDe said:


> Sell off today. Troubles with LYC, or just the whole market? Rare earths sentiment is flying.
> 
> 
> 
> View attachment 147292



Good afternoon Johnde
For mine,  _the whole market. _ 
Not holding at present, and nearly picked up but decided not to.  Looking very closely 

Have a very nice day, today.


Kind regards
rcw1


----------



## JohnDe

rcw1 said:


> Good afternoon Johnde
> For mine,  _the whole market. _
> Not holding at present, and nearly picked up but decided not to.  Looking very closely
> 
> Have a very nice day, today.
> 
> 
> Kind regards
> rcw1




Looking good today rcw1 

I did pick up. The question now is - hold or sell.


----------



## Gunnerguy

I closed my $9/$9.5 Call credit spread for a nice profit yesterday.
Selling a $6.75/$6.25 Put spread today. If it drops I’ll ‘probably’ STC the lower leg for some more PM and maybe happy to be assigned.
Gunnerguy


----------



## rcw1

JohnDe said:


> Looking good today rcw1
> 
> I did pick up. The question now is - hold or sell.



Good morning JohnDe
rcw1 held overnight.  Sold at a good profit.
Numbers looking really good.  rcw1 might pick up again yet, I’ll let you know. 

Kind regards
rcw1


----------



## rcw1

Good evening
$0.13 variance today LYC SP.  Makes it difficult to trade.  Anyways, always next week to look forward to.  Oh the joy of it all.

Have a very nice long weekend.

Kind regards
rcw1


----------



## rcw1

Good morning

Macquarie raised LYC  to outperform, the _Australian Financial Review _reported. Analysts have placed a $9.40 price target on Lynas shares.   
Have a very nice weekend.

Kind regards
rcw1


----------



## DrBourse

DrBourse said:


> Hi rcw1.
> 
> B careful with LYC – Rare Earths may become obsolete &/or irrelevant in the near future.
> 
> Spin doctors may use their *excessive enthusiasm* to convince Newbies that LYC is the next best thing to Sliced Bread, all in an attempt to pump up the SP so they can sell at a profit B4 the LYC Ship Sinks.
> 
> Part of the reason for LYC’s recent pullback is because New Technologies are evolving atm, they will prob take 5 years to develop into a marketable product, but the writing is on the wall for some of the important Rare Earths.
> *Google "Alternatives to Rare Earths".*
> 
> Just ran my slide rule over LYC this morning –
> 
> *Bad points* = Bad PE in relation to NTA, Price is trading at well above NTA, SP is expensive in relation to Av of Last 3 Yrs EPS, Excessive Debt relative to Owners Earnings.
> 
> *Good Points* = Balance Sheet Ratios & Margins of Safety (MOS) rate as “Good”.
> 
> 
> LYC’s current IV is $7.11 to $7.96. (the Dark Maroon Rectangle on the Chart below)
> The Ord Minnett call of $4.85 is pretty close to my TA call of $5.11, Note the recent *Triple Top*, then the *Lower Highs & Lower Lows.*
> View attachment 146758
> 
> 
> I personally like the Ord Minnett “_*direct and blunt attitude*_” to their analysis.
> 
> 
> All I’m suggesting is that you “Be Careful” with the Rare Earths Sector.
> 
> AND
> 
> That you do *Lots, and Lots* of your own research.
> 
> Remember that the idea is to buy stocks that are Below their calculated Intrinsic Value - LYC is way above that figure, and as the LYC SP drops, their IV will also drop, until the SP reaches a price that matches the "Average Punters expectations."
> 
> As usual, I’m Happy to email my research to you.
> 
> 
> 
> Cheers M8.



Hi rcw.
My last post was back on 13/9/22 when LYC was $8.82 (see my previous chart) - Back then I mentioned that the LYC IV was $7.11 to $7.96 - well the current LYC SP of $7.56 is approaching the lower end of that call, which is where I feel the "*Average Punters expectations*" are.
However the Chart below suggests that LYC should fall to somewhere between Point A $7.05 & Point B $6.85, so there is still a bit more to go IMO.




Might mention that LYC's ADR's are all in a similar position - LYIC (on the FWB), and LYSCF & LYSDY (both on the OTC), all 3 were down slightly, so IMO another couple of small drops are on the cards for our LYC.
As usual M8, DYOR, my TA settings cater for my _Level of Risk_, so my calculations may not be as tollerant as yours.
Cheers.


----------



## rcw1

Nice work, thanks very much for that DrBourse.


Kind regards
rcw1


----------



## Gunnerguy

I’m wanting to sell some put spreads a lot lower say $5.50/$5.00. If it drops I’ll sell the deep long, pick up some extra PM, and then possibly buy a bucketfull for the long term, and sell covered calls for more PM.
Gunnerguy


----------



## rcw1

Gunnerguy said:


> I’m wanting to sell some put spreads a lot lower say $5.50/$5.00. If it drops I’ll sell the deep long, pick up some extra PM, and then possibly buy a bucketfull for the long term, and sell covered calls for more PM.
> Gunnerguy



Good afternoon Gunnerguy
Read your post a number of times to work out what you were saying, rcw1 not the smartest tool in the shed...  
All and all, for mine, good plan, all the best with this strategy.  

Kind regards
rcw1


----------



## JohnDe

DrBourse said:


> Hi rcw1.
> 
> B careful with LYC – Rare Earths may become obsolete &/or irrelevant in the near future.
> 
> Spin doctors may use their *excessive enthusiasm* to convince Newbies that LYC is the next best thing to Sliced Bread, all in an attempt to pump up the SP so they can sell at a profit B4 the LYC Ship Sinks.
> 
> Part of the reason for LYC’s recent pullback is because New Technologies are evolving atm, they will prob take 5 years to develop into a marketable product, but the writing is on the wall for some of the important Rare Earths.
> 
> 
> 
> Cheers M8.




Have you changed theory?


----------



## rcw1

JohnDe said:


> Have you changed theory?



Picked up this arvo JohnDe

Kind regards
rcw1


----------



## JohnDe

rcw1 said:


> Picked up this arvo JohnDe
> 
> Kind regards
> rcw1




A good gamble. Personally, I think LYC still has growth prospects. Many governments want to minimise their dependance on China rare earth supply, so that means that here will be increased interest in mining and production in companies like LYC.

My original comment that you have quoted was meant for DrBourse, who stated that "excessive enthusiasm" in LYC is misled because LYC was on the down because of "new technologies evolving".

DrBourse may be right, but he gave no evidence other than to tell everyone to google 'new technologies'. His last post was confusing for me, so I just wanted some clarification from him.


----------



## rcw1

JohnDe said:


> A good gamble. Personally, I think LYC still has growth prospects. Many governments want to minimise their dependance on China rare earth supply, so that means that here will be increased interest in mining and production in companies like LYC.
> 
> My original comment that you have quoted was meant for DrBourse, who stated that "excessive enthusiasm" in LYC is misled because LYC was on the down because of "new technologies evolving".
> 
> DrBourse may be right, but he gave no evidence other than to tell everyone to google 'new technologies'. His last post was confusing for me, so I just wanted some clarification from him.



Good afternoon
Supply of REE for military application is of grave concern by the US if supply is heavily reliant upon China.  LYC to the rescue 

Kind regards
rcw1


----------



## rcw1

rcw1 said:


> Picked up this arvo JohnDe
> 
> Kind regards
> rcw1



Good afternoon 
Sold holding

Have a very nice day.

Kind regards 
rcw1


----------



## rcw1

Good morning
Interesting article written by Simply Wall Street, Yahoo News published this morning (07/10/22) about who controls (share ownership) of LYC.  With 58% stake, individual investors possess the maximum shares in the company.  






Other matters of interest being LYC historical earnings and revenue graph.














						Individual investors who hold 58% of Lynas Rare Earths Limited (ASX:LYC) gained 5.4%, institutions profited as well
					

If you want to know who really controls Lynas Rare Earths Limited ( ASX:LYC ), then you'll have to look at the makeup...




					nz.news.yahoo.com
				




Have a great weekend.

Kind regards
rcw


----------



## rcw1

Good afternoon
Picked up
kind regards
rcw1


----------



## rcw1

*Lynas Western*​*13 October at 23:28*  · 

Delighted to welcome U.S. Ambassador Caroline Kennedy and U.S. Consul General in WA Ms Siriana Nair for a tour of our Western Australian operations - from Mt Weld where it all begins to our new Kalgoorlie Rare Earths Processing Facility.
























+3


*U.S. Consulate Perth*​*13 October at 23:17*  · 
The U.S. is committed to advancing economic prosperity and WA is central to this vision.
Ambassador Caroline Kennedy and Consul General Siriana Nair had an excellent visit yesterday to Lynas Western's rare earths operations in WA’s Goldfields region, seeing firsthand the production and processing needed for the rare earths necessary to the green technologies that will allow us to meet our net zero goals.
As the only ASX-listed company with both a female CEO and chairperson, it was especially pleasing to meet with Lynas’ leadership team.
Lynas also recently signed a US$120 million contract with the U.S. Department of Defense to build a commercial light and heavy rare earths facility in the United States, showing our alliance in action.
PS- Can you spot the American tank on the site? It’s the Kansas company’s largest in the southern hemisphere and has 960,000 bolts!










						Lynas Western
					

Lynas Western, Perth, Western Australia. 449 likes · 36 talking about this. Lynas has been built from the ground up as an environmentally responsible producer of Rare Earths.




					www.facebook.com


----------



## Sean K

rcw1 said:


> *Lynas Western*​*13 October at 23:28*  ·
> 
> Delighted to welcome U.S. Ambassador Caroline Kennedy and U.S. Consul General in WA Ms Siriana Nair for a tour of our Western Australian operations - from Mt Weld where it all begins to our new Kalgoorlie Rare Earths Processing Facility.
> 
> View attachment 148087
> 
> 
> View attachment 148088
> 
> 
> View attachment 148089
> 
> 
> View attachment 148090
> 
> 
> View attachment 148091
> 
> +3
> 
> *U.S. Consulate Perth*​*13 October at 23:17*  ·
> The U.S. is committed to advancing economic prosperity and WA is central to this vision.
> Ambassador Caroline Kennedy and Consul General Siriana Nair had an excellent visit yesterday to Lynas Western's rare earths operations in WA’s Goldfields region, seeing firsthand the production and processing needed for the rare earths necessary to the green technologies that will allow us to meet our net zero goals.
> As the only ASX-listed company with both a female CEO and chairperson, it was especially pleasing to meet with Lynas’ leadership team.
> Lynas also recently signed a US$120 million contract with the U.S. Department of Defense to build a commercial light and heavy rare earths facility in the United States, showing our alliance in action.
> PS- Can you spot the American tank on the site? It’s the Kansas company’s largest in the southern hemisphere and has 960,000 bolts!
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> Lynas Western
> 
> 
> Lynas Western, Perth, Western Australia. 449 likes · 36 talking about this. Lynas has been built from the ground up as an environmentally responsible producer of Rare Earths.
> 
> 
> 
> 
> www.facebook.com




Can't see the American tank.


----------



## rcw1

Sean K said:


> Can't see the American tank.



Hey Sean K it's there one of the attachments...

Kind regards
rcw1


----------



## rcw1

Good afternoon
Sold holding, nice earn.

Kind regards
rcw1


----------



## JohnDe

Markets, currently, like the report - 

*QUARTERLY REPORT*
*FOR THE PERIOD ENDED 30 SEPTEMBER 2022*


----------



## Miner

Solid Performance?
JARE however paid some money at a nominal interest rate. Is it however good enough to sustain?
Prince went up today as soon as the market heard I have tipped 
But I am very consistent to pull back the price from the first day of the month, however (sorry holders, and congrats to the buyers to waiting for $7 to come down or better wish your horse to win in Melbourne Cup


----------



## rcw1

Good morning
Chips cashed in with accumulated LYC holding.


Kind regards
rcw1


----------



## JohnDe

Miner said:


> View attachment 148685
> 
> Solid Performance?
> JARE however paid some money at a nominal interest rate. Is it however good enough to sustain?
> Prince went up today as soon as the market heard I have tipped
> But I am very consistent to pull back the price from the first day of the month, however (sorry holders, and congrats to the buyers to waiting for $7 to come down or better wish your horse to win in Melbourne Cup




What and when was your tip, sorry I must have missed it. Can only find "Point A $7.05 & Point B $6.85, so there is still a bit more to go IMO."


----------



## JohnDe

Slow and steady wins the race


----------



## Miner

JohnDe said:


> What and when was your tip, sorry I must have missed it. Can only find "Point A $7.05 & Point B $6.85, so there is still a bit more to go IMO."



Please visit November tipping thread.
From memory I put my tip on or around 31 Oct


----------



## rcw1

rcw1 missed opportunity last Thursday for yet another trade.  Such is life, that happens.   Watching the numbers very carefully for an opening.  Are you still holding JohnDe?

Kind regards
rcw1


----------



## rcw1

Good morning
Financial Review article published yesterday 14/11/22.  The Malaysian issues have caught the eye of journalist Brad Thompson.  This memo dated 27/02/2020 relates in part to this article.



			https://wcsecure.weblink.com.au/pdf/LYC/02207510.pdf
		


For mine, cannot for the life of rcw1 believe that Amanda and the Board would be that silly as to compromise their ability to maintain operations.  When questioned by media Amanda's reported response was,* “It is a challenging timeframe and no, there’s no update. At this stage, we continue to manage all elements of that plant to be able to bring it online in the event that we are unable to continue to produce in Malaysia,” she said. * Apt and to the point, ha ha ha ha ha ha.

The political beast may dictate otherwise should the LYC plant in Kalgoorlie not be ready to rock and roll 01/07/23.   Having said this, will continue to trade LYC when opportunities present, at this point in time.
Key deadline looms for Lynas’ $575m processing plant​




*Brad Thompson*Reporter
Nov 14, 2022 – 5.00am

Lynas Rare Earths is having an each-way bet as it races to finish a new $575 million processing plant at Kalgoorlie in time to meet a deadline imposed by Malaysian authorities.  The company says it is on target to have the cracking and leaching plant up and running by July 1. That is when Malaysia authorities have told Lynas it must stop cracking and leaching rare earths mined in Western Australia at its downstream processing plant at Kuantan on the South-East Asian nation’s east coast.
*
The Kalgoorlie plant is rapidly taking shape just south of the historic gold mining town, but some long-time Lynas watchers doubt it will be ready in time.*

Lynas is the only significant producer of strategically important separated rare earths outside of China – something that is unlikely to change any time soon – and any delay or threat to its production will concern the company’s Japan Inc and Pentagon backers.

It makes sense for Lynas to have a back-up plan. The company has asked Malaysia, where it is regulated by the Atomic Energy Licensing Board (AELB), to review the terms of its licence to operate in the country.  However, Lynas has some rusted on critics in Malaysian politics and in the community despite being a big employer and producing materials crucial in greenhouse gas-reducing technologies.

The Lynas licence to operate is up for renewal in March. When it was last up for renewal, one of four key conditions imposed by the Pakatan Harapan government was that Lynas move cracking and leaching, which produces a low-level radioactive Water Leach Purification residue, outside Malaysia before the July 1 deadline.

Beyond that date, Lynas will no longer be allowed to import rare earths, which have a naturally occurring radioactivity, straight from its Mt Weld mine in WA to Kuantan.  Lynas wants the condition removed but has kept very quiet about its application. There was speculation that Lynas was trying to have the condition removed as far back as May, but back then the AELB denied it had received any application.

Malaysia’s science, technology and innovation minister, Adham Baba, eventually confirmed the Lynas application was being evaluated after being asked about the matter in parliament.  Lynas managing director Amanda Lacaze must think there is at least a glimmer of hope the application will succeed, given her curious answer to a recent question about the progress at Kalgoorlie and hitting the challenging July 1 deadline. * “It is a challenging timeframe and no, there’s no update. At this stage, we continue to manage all elements of that plant to be able to bring it online in the event that we are unable to continue to produce in Malaysia,” she said.*

Doubts over the deadline​Although critics in Malaysia have stirred controversy over the low-level radioactivity associated with rare earths, the Lynas operations and waste storage plans in Australia – where the long-standing mineral sands industry routinely deals with higher levels of radioactivity – have barely raised an eyebrow with environmental watchdogs and green groups.

*Ord Minnett analyst Dylan Kelly, who has followed Lynas’ journey for years, doubts the company can hit the deadline at Kalgoorlie.*

“We remain sceptical that the project remains ‘on time and on budget’, but we are less concerned with cost overruns due to the $1 billion cash buffer [held by Lynas],” he said in a note to clients after Lynas revealed a not completely unexpected 15 per cent blow out in costs at Kalgoorlie.  “However, we reiterate that being ‘on time’ for July 1, 2023, remains essential to comply with its Malaysian regulations.”

*Ord Minnett has a sell rating on the stock but welcomed a move by Lynas backer JARE, a special purpose company established by Japan Oil, Gas and Metals National Corporation and Sojitz Corporation, to remove its capital management restrictions on the company.*

Canaccord Genuity has a buy rating on Lynas, even though analyst Reg Spencer is also wary about it hitting the Kalgoorlie deadline.  
The optimists see a potential win-win for Lynas whereby Malaysia allows cracking and leaching to continue and Kalgoorlie comes online before or after July 1.  That would give Lynas a mid-stream production boost as it invests $500 million in increasing upstream output from Mt Weld and builds a heavy and light rare earths separation facility somewhere in the Gulf of Texas, helped by funding from the US Department of Defence.


Lynas announced in August that it was stepping up growth plans and intended to increase throughput capacity at Mt Weld from 300,000 tonnes a year to 1.3 million tonnes a year.  The move is designed to increase neodymium-praseodymium (NdPr) production to 12,000 tonnes a year by 2024, with Lynas also flagging plans for two additional growth projects that could take it to nearly 17,000 tonnes a year.

Hosting US royalty​The previous target, announced in May 2019, was to be producing 10,500 tonnes a year of NdPr by 2025. Lynas revised its target based on growth in demand for permanent magnets needed in electric vehicles, wind turbines, defence applications and in other now everyday technologies.

The chances of success for Lynas and its backers start at Mt Weld, about 30 kilometres from Laverton and nearly 400 kilometres by road north of Kalgoorlie.









JARE is helping fund more exploration work there and last month the huge, rare earths deposit, which sits in a two billion-year-old volcanic plug, was visited by US political royalty.  Ms Lacaze hosted US ambassador to Australia Caroline Kennedy on a tour of the remote mine and the plant under construction at Kalgoorlie, in another reminder of Lynas’ standing with Australia’s allies as a non-China supplier of rare earths.

The federal government is providing funding for mineral sands producer Iluka Resources to build Australia’s first fully integrated rare earths refinery at Eneabba in WA, but so far Iluka doesn’t have a rare earths mine.

Iluka last month moved to secure feedstock from Northern Minerals, now under the leadership of Lynas founder Nick Curtis, to supplement the large monazite-rich stockpiles left behind from mineral sands mining it intends to process at Eneabba.

The deal could result in Iluka emerging with a 19.9 per cent stake in Northern Minerals and its heavy rare earths Browns Range project. Iluka is also weighing up rare earths mining at Wimmera in Victoria.  Meanwhile, there continues to be great excitement about anything that resembles a hint of a significant hard rock rare earths or critical minerals discovery.

Junior explorer WA1 Resources’ share price jumped more than 400 per cent on October 26 after a single drill hole indicated it had discovered a carbonatite mineral system in outback WA. Such systems host all three of the world’s operating niobium mines and Mt Weld.

There is also a growing band of explorers looking at clay-hosted rare earths projects, including a cluster around Esperance in WA that includes OD6 Metals, Mt Ridley Mines, Meeka Metals, Heavy Rare Earths Limited and West Cobar Metals.

The OD6 share price more than doubled last week when it announced assay results showing some of the highest grade and thickest clay-hosted rare earths intersections in Australia.

Different approaches​Clay deposits are easier to mine but generally much lower grade than hard rock rare earths deposits. The rare earths produced from mining don’t require cracking and the processing and separation process is well established in China.  China has exploited its clay-hosted rare earths using a technique known as in-situ leaching where miners have injected tonnes of ammonium sulfate, ammonium chloride and other chemicals into the ground and caused major environmental damage.  Authorities in China have cracked down on this kind of mining and there is no suggestion that emerging players in Australia would seek to use such environmentally damaging methods.

Mr Spencer said Canaccord was keeping an eye on the clay hopefuls given the demand for non-China rare earths supply. He said their future was likely to come down to grade, as with many other mining projects.

“The world is going to need more rare earths, and we are all living under a cloud of geopolitical uncertainty whereby on any day of the week China could cease exports of rare earths oxides or even magnets to the rest of the world,” he said.

“Given that they control 90 per cent of the rare earths market the rest of the world needs to have an independent source of supply.”


----------



## Miner

rcw1 said:


> Good morning
> Financial Review article published yesterday 14/11/22.  The Malaysian issues have caught the eye of journalist Brad Thompson.  This memo dated 27/02/2020 relates in part to this article.
> 
> 
> 
> https://wcsecure.weblink.com.au/pdf/LYC/02207510.pdf
> 
> 
> 
> For mine, cannot for the life of rcw1 believe that Amanda and the Board would be that silly as to compromise their ability to maintain operations.  When questioned by media Amanda's reported response was,* “It is a challenging timeframe and no, there’s no update. At this stage, we continue to manage all elements of that plant to be able to bring it online in the event that we are unable to continue to produce in Malaysia,” she said. * Apt and to the point, ha ha ha ha ha ha.
> 
> The political beast may dictate otherwise should the LYC plant in Kalgoorlie not be ready to rock and roll 01/07/23.   Having said this, will continue to trade LYC when opportunities present, at this point in time.
> Key deadline looms for Lynas’ $575m processing plant​
> View attachment 149264
> 
> *Brad Thompson*Reporter
> Nov 14, 2022 – 5.00am
> 
> Lynas Rare Earths is having an each-way bet as it races to finish a new $575 million processing plant at Kalgoorlie in time to meet a deadline imposed by Malaysian authorities.  The company says it is on target to have the cracking and leaching plant up and running by July 1. That is when Malaysia authorities have told Lynas it must stop cracking and leaching rare earths mined in Western Australia at its downstream processing plant at Kuantan on the South-East Asian nation’s east coast.
> 
> *The Kalgoorlie plant is rapidly taking shape just south of the historic gold mining town, but some long-time Lynas watchers doubt it will be ready in time.*
> 
> Lynas is the only significant producer of strategically important separated rare earths outside of China – something that is unlikely to change any time soon – and any delay or threat to its production will concern the company’s Japan Inc and Pentagon backers.
> 
> It makes sense for Lynas to have a back-up plan. The company has asked Malaysia, where it is regulated by the Atomic Energy Licensing Board (AELB), to review the terms of its licence to operate in the country.  However, Lynas has some rusted on critics in Malaysian politics and in the community despite being a big employer and producing materials crucial in greenhouse gas-reducing technologies.
> 
> The Lynas licence to operate is up for renewal in March. When it was last up for renewal, one of four key conditions imposed by the Pakatan Harapan government was that Lynas move cracking and leaching, which produces a low-level radioactive Water Leach Purification residue, outside Malaysia before the July 1 deadline.
> 
> Beyond that date, Lynas will no longer be allowed to import rare earths, which have a naturally occurring radioactivity, straight from its Mt Weld mine in WA to Kuantan.  Lynas wants the condition removed but has kept very quiet about its application. There was speculation that Lynas was trying to have the condition removed as far back as May, but back then the AELB denied it had received any application.
> 
> Malaysia’s science, technology and innovation minister, Adham Baba, eventually confirmed the Lynas application was being evaluated after being asked about the matter in parliament.  Lynas managing director Amanda Lacaze must think there is at least a glimmer of hope the application will succeed, given her curious answer to a recent question about the progress at Kalgoorlie and hitting the challenging July 1 deadline. * “It is a challenging timeframe and no, there’s no update. At this stage, we continue to manage all elements of that plant to be able to bring it online in the event that we are unable to continue to produce in Malaysia,” she said.*
> 
> Doubts over the deadline​Although critics in Malaysia have stirred controversy over the low-level radioactivity associated with rare earths, the Lynas operations and waste storage plans in Australia – where the long-standing mineral sands industry routinely deals with higher levels of radioactivity – have barely raised an eyebrow with environmental watchdogs and green groups.
> 
> *Ord Minnett analyst Dylan Kelly, who has followed Lynas’ journey for years, doubts the company can hit the deadline at Kalgoorlie.*
> 
> “We remain sceptical that the project remains ‘on time and on budget’, but we are less concerned with cost overruns due to the $1 billion cash buffer [held by Lynas],” he said in a note to clients after Lynas revealed a not completely unexpected 15 per cent blow out in costs at Kalgoorlie.  “However, we reiterate that being ‘on time’ for July 1, 2023, remains essential to comply with its Malaysian regulations.”
> 
> *Ord Minnett has a sell rating on the stock but welcomed a move by Lynas backer JARE, a special purpose company established by Japan Oil, Gas and Metals National Corporation and Sojitz Corporation, to remove its capital management restrictions on the company.*
> 
> Canaccord Genuity has a buy rating on Lynas, even though analyst Reg Spencer is also wary about it hitting the Kalgoorlie deadline.
> The optimists see a potential win-win for Lynas whereby Malaysia allows cracking and leaching to continue and Kalgoorlie comes online before or after July 1.  That would give Lynas a mid-stream production boost as it invests $500 million in increasing upstream output from Mt Weld and builds a heavy and light rare earths separation facility somewhere in the Gulf of Texas, helped by funding from the US Department of Defence.
> 
> 
> Lynas announced in August that it was stepping up growth plans and intended to increase throughput capacity at Mt Weld from 300,000 tonnes a year to 1.3 million tonnes a year.  The move is designed to increase neodymium-praseodymium (NdPr) production to 12,000 tonnes a year by 2024, with Lynas also flagging plans for two additional growth projects that could take it to nearly 17,000 tonnes a year.
> 
> Hosting US royalty​The previous target, announced in May 2019, was to be producing 10,500 tonnes a year of NdPr by 2025. Lynas revised its target based on growth in demand for permanent magnets needed in electric vehicles, wind turbines, defence applications and in other now everyday technologies.
> 
> The chances of success for Lynas and its backers start at Mt Weld, about 30 kilometres from Laverton and nearly 400 kilometres by road north of Kalgoorlie.
> 
> View attachment 149263
> View attachment 149263
> 
> 
> JARE is helping fund more exploration work there and last month the huge, rare earths deposit, which sits in a two billion-year-old volcanic plug, was visited by US political royalty.  Ms Lacaze hosted US ambassador to Australia Caroline Kennedy on a tour of the remote mine and the plant under construction at Kalgoorlie, in another reminder of Lynas’ standing with Australia’s allies as a non-China supplier of rare earths.
> 
> The federal government is providing funding for mineral sands producer Iluka Resources to build Australia’s first fully integrated rare earths refinery at Eneabba in WA, but so far Iluka doesn’t have a rare earths mine.
> 
> Iluka last month moved to secure feedstock from Northern Minerals, now under the leadership of Lynas founder Nick Curtis, to supplement the large monazite-rich stockpiles left behind from mineral sands mining it intends to process at Eneabba.
> 
> The deal could result in Iluka emerging with a 19.9 per cent stake in Northern Minerals and its heavy rare earths Browns Range project. Iluka is also weighing up rare earths mining at Wimmera in Victoria.  Meanwhile, there continues to be great excitement about anything that resembles a hint of a significant hard rock rare earths or critical minerals discovery.
> 
> Junior explorer WA1 Resources’ share price jumped more than 400 per cent on October 26 after a single drill hole indicated it had discovered a carbonatite mineral system in outback WA. Such systems host all three of the world’s operating niobium mines and Mt Weld.
> 
> There is also a growing band of explorers looking at clay-hosted rare earths projects, including a cluster around Esperance in WA that includes OD6 Metals, Mt Ridley Mines, Meeka Metals, Heavy Rare Earths Limited and West Cobar Metals.
> 
> The OD6 share price more than doubled last week when it announced assay results showing some of the highest grade and thickest clay-hosted rare earths intersections in Australia.
> 
> Different approaches​Clay deposits are easier to mine but generally much lower grade than hard rock rare earths deposits. The rare earths produced from mining don’t require cracking and the processing and separation process is well established in China.  China has exploited its clay-hosted rare earths using a technique known as in-situ leaching where miners have injected tonnes of ammonium sulfate, ammonium chloride and other chemicals into the ground and caused major environmental damage.  Authorities in China have cracked down on this kind of mining and there is no suggestion that emerging players in Australia would seek to use such environmentally damaging methods.
> 
> Mr Spencer said Canaccord was keeping an eye on the clay hopefuls given the demand for non-China rare earths supply. He said their future was likely to come down to grade, as with many other mining projects.
> 
> “The world is going to need more rare earths, and we are all living under a cloud of geopolitical uncertainty whereby on any day of the week China could cease exports of rare earths oxides or even magnets to the rest of the world,” he said.
> 
> “Given that they control 90 per cent of the rare earths market the rest of the world needs to have an independent source of supply.”



Good share and informative.
The delay is obvious because of ambitious target.
But process wise with guarantee off take there is no fatal flaw.
Enjoy holders


----------



## rcw1

Miner said:


> Good share and informative.
> The delay is obvious because of ambitious target.
> But process wise with guarantee off take there is no fatal flaw.
> Enjoy holders



Good morning Miner,
Most kind of you and have a great day, today.

Just picked up on another article concerning LYC from Macquarie Equities:

Macquarie Equities downgrades Lynas Rare Earths to Neutral and trims its target price 4.2 per cent to $9.10 a share after lowering its rare earths price forecasts.  The broker notes that non-electric vehicle sectors remain a key demand driver for rare earths demand and have underperformed due to a combination of logistic disruptions and weak consumer confidence.
"The weakness in consumer-driven demand was reflected in smartphone sales inCY22 to date, which declined for the last two consecutive quarters," Macquarie says."However, we also note signs of NdPr price support from rising pressures on rare earthsconcentrate costs. 

In the past six months, Baosteel tried twice to raise the prices of concentrate supplied to China Northern Rare Earth.
"The revised demand and supply outlook sees a cut in near-term price forecasts.  Macquarie now expects prices to peak at US$130 a tonne in late 2024 versus $135 previously, and sees NdPr prices trading sub US$100/t in the next six months as it expects any easing of 
Covid restrictions in China will be at a measured pace this winter in China.

"While we believe Lynas enjoys a valuation premium given it is world’s only significant producer of separated rare earth materials outside of China, its earnings outlook depends on commodity prices outlook," the broker says, noting its recent strong shareprice performance and persisting near term NdPr price headwinds. 

Incorporating the rare earths price forecast downgrades lowers Macquarie's FY23 and FY24 earnings by 27 and 11 per cent, and trims its FY25 and FY26 estimates decrease by 7 and 4 per cent respectively. It's longer term forecasts are little changed.LYC last $9.15.


----------



## JohnDe

Down 2 days in a row, or is that 3? And by a significant amount.


----------



## Miner

JohnDe said:


> Down 2 days in a row, or is that 3? And by a significant amount.



Some one at ASX is working to bring my Nov tip to get a wooden spoon 😠 😡 👿 😊 😃 😀


----------



## rcw1

Miner said:


> Some one at ASX is working to bring my Nov tip to get a wooden spoon 😠 😡 👿 😊 😃 😀



rcw1 helped with increasing demand by a pin prick... captured 

Kind regards
rcw1


----------



## rcw1

Good morning
LYC AGM yesterday (29/11/22) report too large to upload.


			https://cdn-api.markitdigital.com/apiman-gateway/CommSec/commsec-node-api/1.0/event/document/1410-02604984-23T61FI5I8K8FP50PO8BA4J9IK/pdf?access_token=0007ighcC23Th7VTFiZdGueB0LmD
		


A slide contained within report depicts five kilotonnes (kt) of Neodymium-Praseodymium (NdPr) oxide is required for 10 million hybrid electric vehicles, moreover a further seven kt of NdPr oxide is needed for 10 million battery electric vehicles.
3 kt of NpPr oxide per 10 GW capacity direct drive wind turbine.

REE believers, this is a good read.

See what the SP does today.   rcw1 holding.

Liked the video presentation.



Have a very nice day today.

Kind regards
rcw1


----------



## rcw1

Good morning
****  Go Australia in the cricket   ****

rcw1 is participating in the *Unofficial* Full CY 2023 Stock Tipping Competition ...  LYC is number two of the four chosen.

Why then?
rcw1 and LYC relationship goes back to 2019.  Have traded LYC successfully now for a very long time, 'religiously' as a matter of course.  It has never disappointed rcw1.  Having said this, there will always be a first-time ha ha ha ha ha.  Hopefully that won't be anytime soon... 
Milked the cow... so to speak.  

Acknowledge Mahail who advocated for this stock within the Commsec Community Forum.

Have studied and researched this company back to front and inside out.  For mine, there are three (3) very important favourable considerations and yet they are so simple:
1)  The CEO is Amanda Margaret Lacaze a true shining light;
2)  Rare Earth Elements (REE) is not going away, in fact for mine, as technologies improve so will the application/use of REE;  and
3)  The company is best placed to take forward what is required regarding production and supply chains, moreover the US Defense Force is a great demand construct...

Should anybody want any further information on this stock, happy to take a PM anytime.

Have a very nice day, today.

Kind Regards
rcw1


----------



## waterbottle

rcw1 said:


> Good morning
> ****  Go Australia in the cricket   ****
> 
> rcw1 is participating in the *Unofficial* Full CY 2023 Stock Tipping Competition ...  LYC is number two of the four chosen.
> 
> Why then?
> rcw1 and LYC relationship goes back to 2019.  Have traded LYC successfully now for a very long time, 'religiously' as a matter of course.  It has never disappointed rcw1.  Having said this, there will always be a first-time ha ha ha ha ha.  Hopefully that won't be anytime soon...
> Milked the cow... so to speak.
> 
> Acknowledge Mahail who advocated for this stock within the Commsec Community Forum.
> 
> Have studied and researched this company back to front and inside out.  For mine, there are three (3) very important favourable considerations and yet they are so simple:
> 1)  The CEO is Amanda Margaret Lacaze a true shining light;
> 2)  Rare Earth Elements (REE) is not going away, in fact for mine, as technologies improve so will the application/use of REE;  and
> 3)  The company is best placed to take forward what is required regarding production and supply chains, moreover the US Defense Force is a great demand construct...
> 
> Should anybody want any further information on this stock, happy to take a PM anytime.
> 
> Have a very nice day, today.
> 
> Kind Regards
> rcw1




Isn't Lynas dependent on Malaysia and China for REO processing? Doesn't that hurt Lynas when most Western governments are seeking to distance themselves from China?


----------



## Miner

waterbottle said:


> Isn't Lynas dependent on Malaysia and China for REO processing? Doesn't that hurt Lynas when most Western governments are seeking to distance themselves from China?



Lyc is very ambitious of their off take guarantee and product.
So they are going to ramp up with the probability of skipping one important of gates of project execution.
That's a smart move provided the reworks are well managed and engineering is matured enough.
It was not very long ago Malaysian govt had a go with LYC. But since then new management specially the CEO with a very high bonus and favourable govt.
DNH


----------



## rcw1

waterbottle said:


> Isn't Lynas dependent on Malaysia and China for REO processing? Doesn't that hurt Lynas when most Western governments are seeking to distance themselves from China?



Good morning waterbottle
Very soon LYC will have its own REE processing in WA and later in the US.  Reliance on its facility in Malaysia and also China (Heavy REE  processing) will not be an issue.  

There is an alliance of sorts amongst Western Nations to work closely together and reduce China’s influence over REE.  This is mist important because of military application of REE.  The US in particular does not want any REE supply issues fir military purposes and the ability to have another non problematic supplier like LYC with its infrastructure is best placed to assist in this process.  

Kind regards
rcw1


----------



## waterbottle

Thanks @Miner and @rcw1 

I agree one to watch. Who is LYC main customers (ones who they've already transacted with)? 
Several REE companies have emerged over the past 2 years with off-take agreements that never materalised...


----------



## rcw1

Good morning waterbottle
I must have missed your post, not ignoring you ... so sorry for the delay in getting back to you

Lynas is the leading supplier of the NdPr family of products to the Japanese market.


waterbottle said:


> Thanks @Miner and @rcw1
> 
> I agree one to watch. *Who is LYC main customers (ones who they've already transacted with)?*
> Several REE companies have emerged over the past 2 years with off-take agreements that never materalised...



Good morning waterbottle
rcw1 must have missed your post, just saw it, so sorry for the delay in getting back to you.

Lynas is the leading supplier of the NdPr family of products to the Japanese market.  Demand is increasing.
Inextricably interwoven into this are these two important considerations:

Lynas has established itself as the only supplier of scale of separated Rare Earths outside China; and
End users are placing more importance on being able to trace the origin of rare earths from an ethical and environmentally responsible source of production to their end products, which at this point in time Lynas can provide.

This information is readily available in announcements past 12 months.

Have a very nice day today.

Kind regards
rcw1


----------



## rcw1

Good morning
December 2022 update on Lynas Kalgoorlie Rare Earths Processing Facility: 


			https://lynasrareearths.com/wp-content/uploads/2022/12/Lynas-WA-Project-Update-Dec-2022.pdf
		


Still some work to be done by 30 June 2023.

Have a very nice day, today.

Kind regards
rcw1


----------



## rcw1

Good morning,
Finally some positive SP movement up over and above that 8 bucks.  Nice as was starting to 'wonder' whether Santa was gunna do the right thing with this stock.... 

Holding.

Have a very nice day, today,

Kind regards
rcw1


----------



## Sean K

rcw1 said:


> Good morning,
> Finally some positive SP movement up over and above that 8 bucks.  Nice as was starting to 'wonder' whether Santa was gunna do the right thing with this stock....
> 
> Holding.
> 
> Have a very nice day, today,
> 
> Kind regards
> rcw1




I like the potential higher low, but still in the one year downward chanel. Been waiting for a general market capitulation to add some more but it's not happening yet.


----------



## Rabbithop

Congrats 







Sean K said:


> I like the potential higher low, but still in the one year downward chanel. Been waiting for a general market capitulation to add some more but it's not happening yet.
> 
> View attachment 151312



Congrats to all holders.


----------

