# Two thirds of Americans predict recession!



## numbercruncher (3 August 2007)

> NEW YORK (Reuters) - Just over two-thirds of Americans believe the country is either already in recession or headed for one over the coming year, according to a new poll conducted jointly by The Wall Street Journal and NBC.
> 
> Nearly half the survey respondents, 46 percent, believed a recession was already under way.




http://www.reuters.com/article/domesticNews/idUSN0225754820070802


And I for one agree with this prediction!


Enforces that age old adage  " You can fool some of the people some of the time, But not all of the people all of the time "


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## Pat (3 August 2007)

*Re: Two Thirds of Americans predict Recession !*



numbercruncher said:


> http://www.reuters.com/article/domesticNews/idUSN0225754820070802
> 
> 
> And I for one agree with this prediction!
> ...



Do you beleive 2/3 of Americans know what a recession is?


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## Flying Fish (3 August 2007)

*Re: Two Thirds of Americans predict Recession !*



Pat said:


> Do you beleive 2/3 of Americans know what a recession is?




2/3 of americans are obese


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## chops_a_must (3 August 2007)

*Re: Two Thirds of Americans predict Recession !*



Pat said:


> Do you beleive 2/3 of Americans know what a recession is?




Lol!

Considering 50% of yanks don't know the sun is a star...


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## numbercruncher (3 August 2007)

*Re: Two Thirds of Americans predict Recession !*

"Do yah all have pet Kangaroos downunder"

"Sure do mate Kids ride em to school"

" Wow "


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## Pommiegranite (3 August 2007)

*Re: Two Thirds of Americans predict Recession !*



chops_a_must said:


> Lol!
> 
> Considering 50% of yanks don't know the sun is a star...





"50% of American believe Austria is a state of Australia". 

Okay..okay...I just made that up...but could be true.

Anyways..you guys seen this : http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=M1N351vzY-M


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## Kimosabi (3 August 2007)

*Re: Two Thirds of Americans predict Recession !*

Well, I predict The Great Depression #2...


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## Pat (3 August 2007)

*Re: Two Thirds of Americans predict Recession !*



Kimosabi said:


> Well, I predict The Great Depression #2...



I for one predict this will never occur  unless something incredible happens like an asteriod hitting earth, that!... would be depressing.


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## wayneL (3 August 2007)

*Re: Two Thirds of Americans predict Recession !*



Pat said:


> *I for one predict this will never occur*  unless something incredible happens like an asteriod hitting earth, that!... would be depressing.



Ridiculous! That's like saying there will never be a winter.


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## Pat (3 August 2007)

*Re: Two Thirds of Americans predict Recession !*



wayneL said:


> Ridiculous! That's like saying there will never be a winter.



Ok, *Never* is a long time... Never say never.... but come on, we've come so far.


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## wayneL (3 August 2007)

*Re: Two Thirds of Americans predict Recession !*



Pat said:


> Ok, *Never* is a long time... Never say never.... but come on, we've come so far.



...on the back of a massive credit bubble and overuse of a finite resource (oil).

Changes in the the supply of both will have very serious and far reaching consequences.


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## Pat (3 August 2007)

*Re: Two Thirds of Americans predict Recession !*



wayneL said:


> ...on the back of a massive credit bubble and overuse of a finite resource (oil).
> 
> Changes in the the supply of both will have very serious and far reaching consequences.



Sure a recession, but the economy to collapse to a state where there is mass unemployment, hyperinflation? I would hope the rich cannot profit from conditions like these, and would control enough to maintain an equilibrium, a stable economy, sure there's big ups and downs, but stable in that respect. To my understanding during the "depression" the economy collapsed? Perhaps im being unrealistic?


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## chops_a_must (3 August 2007)

*Re: Two Thirds of Americans predict Recession !*



Pat said:


> Sure a recession, but the economy to collapse to a state where there is mass unemployment, hyperinflation? I would hope the rich cannot profit from conditions like these, and would control enough to maintain an equilibrium, a stable economy, sure there's big ups and downs, but stable in that respect. To my understanding during the "depression" the economy collapsed? Perhaps im being unrealistic?



I think it's more likely to be a situation like the Japanese economy has been in for the last 15-20 years.


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## Pat (3 August 2007)

*Re: Two Thirds of Americans predict Recession !*



chops_a_must said:


> I think it's more likely to be a situation like the Japanese economy has been in for the last 15-20 years.



Hmmmmm, how many people living in poverty in Japan? Thats just as bad I guess.


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## wayneL (3 August 2007)

*Re: Two Thirds of Americans predict Recession !*



Pat said:


> Sure a recession, but the economy to collapse to a state where there is mass unemployment, hyperinflation? I would hope the rich cannot profit from conditions like these, and would control enough to maintain an equilibrium, a stable economy, sure there's big ups and downs, but stable in that respect. To my understanding during the "depression" the economy collapsed? Perhaps im being unrealistic?



I think many misunderstand what a depression is. From wikipedia:


> A recession is traditionally defined in macroeconomics as a decline in a country's real Gross Domestic Product (GDP) for two or more successive quarters of a year (equivalently, two consecutive quarters of negative real economic growth). However this definition is not universally accepted. The National Bureau of Economic Research defines a recession more ambiguously as "a significant decline in economic activity spread across the economy, lasting more than a few months." A recession may involve simultaneous declines in coincident measures of overall economic activity such as employment, investment, and corporate profits. Recessions may be associated with falling prices (deflation), or, alternatively, sharply rising prices (inflation) in a process known as stagflation. A severe or long recession is referred to as an economic depression. A devastating breakdown of an economy is called economic collapse.



There is confusion between depression and economic collapse.

My folks lived through the great depression. It was tough, there was a lot of unemployment, stuff was unavailable, unaffordable, rations etc., but people were not starving to death in the street.

An economic collapse is possible, but agree it would require some sort of calamity (like cascading cross defaults ) and we hope that won't happen. But depression at some stage is unavoidable, given the set of circumstances we find ourselves in.


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## theasxgorilla (3 August 2007)

I also saw this statistic.  It was a Wall Street Journal poll taken via phone and included a sample of 1000.  Nothing was said about where they called.  If you called 1,000 ppl in some sub-prime heartland...perhaps you'd get that kind of a response.  Or maybe if you called some mutual-fund-belt that just had 10% of their account balance wiped.

They also rang between July 27th and 30th.  Immediately after the drop on share markets at the height of all fathomable sub-prime-credit-crunch media propaganda.  Those clever WSJ b%#tards. :bad:


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## theasxgorilla (3 August 2007)

*Re: Two Thirds of Americans predict Recession !*



wayneL said:


> but people were not starving to death in the street.



 Indeed, it took a world war for that to happen.


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## Pat (3 August 2007)

*Re: Two Thirds of Americans predict Recession !*



wayneL said:


> I think many misunderstand what a depression is. From wikipedia:
> 
> There is confusion between depression and economic collapse.
> 
> ...



Ok understand, I've heard stories of the depression when I was a kid. When people got sick there was no help, things like that, no money for food etc. Sorta getting like that now when I think about it.


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## theasxgorilla (3 August 2007)

*Re: Two Thirds of Americans predict Recession !*



Pat said:


> Ok understand, I've heard stories of the depression when I was a kid. When people got sick there was no help, things like that, no money for food etc. Sorta getting like that now when I think about it.




Sounds like New Orleans.

Where are you from Pat?  Please don't tell me you're in Australia and you see people with no money for food and can't get/afford access to medical services?


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## dhukka (3 August 2007)

theasxgorilla said:


> I also saw this statistic.  It was a Wall Street Journal poll taken via phone and included a sample of 1000.  Nothing was said about where they called.  If you called 1,000 ppl in some sub-prime heartland...perhaps you'd get that kind of a response.  Or maybe if you called some mutual-fund-belt that just had 10% of their account balance wiped.
> 
> They also rang between July 27th and 30th.  Immediately after the drop on share markets at the height of all fathomable sub-prime-credit-crunch media propaganda.  Those clever WSJ b%#tards. :bad:




From the full article:

_"Just 20% said shifting stock values lately have had a negative impact on their finances, while 17% said the same about home price declines."
_

Agreed, not much to be gleaned from a poll. I think Minyanville.com's Five Things You Need to Know column summed up the situation well yesterday: 



> 2.  Glass Half Empty?
> 
> More than two-thirds of Americans believe the U.S. economy is either in recession now or will be in the next year, a new Wall Street Journal/NBC News poll shows.
> 
> ...


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## Smurf1976 (3 August 2007)

*Re: Two Thirds of Americans predict Recession !*



Pat said:


> Sure a recession, but the economy to collapse to a state where there is mass unemployment, hyperinflation?



Depends on what you define as "mass unemployment". 

I'd argue that the high rate of unemployment seen nationally in Australia in the early 1990's was bad enough to be considered a crisis. Worth considering that many regional areas were far worse than the national average too.


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## YELNATS (3 August 2007)

*Re: Two Thirds of Americans predict Recession !*



Pommiegranite said:


> "50% of American believe Austria is a state of Australia".
> 
> Okay..okay...I just made that up...but could be true.
> 
> Anyways..you guys seen this : http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=M1N351vzY-M




When I first visited "New Joisey" USA in the 70's I was asked how come I spoke english "so good". I explained I took it as a second language.

"World News" on the TV meant they ran stories from California.

Later I was doing my trip report and asked the boss's secretary if I could borrow a rubber. She said in this  country guys usually provide their own. 

Sheeez!

regards YN.


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## Joules MM1 (3 August 2007)

the important part about numbers is how they are colated without the added media gossip..........

try this one

http://www.forexfactory.com/news.php?do=news&id=40928

but then, when more than two thirds trade the wrong way........

half full, half empty?


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## Pat (3 August 2007)

*Re: Two Thirds of Americans predict Recession !*



theasxgorilla said:


> Sounds like New Orleans.
> 
> Where are you from Pat?  Please don't tell me you're in Australia and you see people with no money for food and can't get/afford access to medical services?






Pat said:


> I meant I was told that during the depression it was hard to feed a family, often people went hungry etc.



Sorry Gorilla got no idea what happened there? Beers fault I guess. :alcohol:


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## prawn_86 (4 August 2007)

heres an interesting article i read this morning which could be applied to this thread.

http://www.smh.com.au/news/business/dont-fall-for-the-hype-of-a-herd-thats-spooked/2007/08/03/1185648143713.html?page=1


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## ZzzzDad (5 August 2007)

American growth rate was above 3% last quarter.

The media in America is the reason people think America is in recession.  If we had a Democrat president, and this same economy, the media would be reporting how great the economy is, how low unemployment is, how high the stock market is, etc., etc.  With Bush, they push the negative side of everything.   

I can guarantee that 20 years from now, people will still be predicting the demise of America and its economy.  I'm old enough to have lived through the '70s when people were predicting Japan was going to overtake American.  Didn't happen.  Now, it is supposedly China and India's turn to overtake America.  It won't happen.


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## surfingman (5 August 2007)

I'm not usually one to poke fun at the yanks, but 2/3 of Americans predict recession, just a few knowledgeable people getting interviewed an interesting watch.

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=VtXCs0Wqs9Q


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## numbercruncher (5 August 2007)

> In an interview on Wednesday afternoon, Starbucks Corp.’s CEO Jim Donald said that the ability of its customers to order Frappuccinos and cappuccinos is being hurt by rising prices for gasoline, milk and other commodities.
> 
> “All these things just add up to, maybe people aren’t going four times a week,” he said. “Maybe it’s three times a week.”




http://http://blogs.reuters.com/2007/08/02/are-we-facing-a-latte-recession/


Cutting back on lattes is a Ominous warning i reckon! When Starbucks see it in there bottom line its not long till others do to ...


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## theasxgorilla (5 August 2007)

numbercruncher said:


> http://http://blogs.reuters.com/2007/08/02/are-we-facing-a-latte-recession/
> 
> 
> Cutting back on lattes is a Ominous warning i reckon! When Starbucks see it in there bottom line its not long till others do to ...




Yep, cutbacks on the horizon...A half-pounder and a litre of cola at Wendys instead of 3/4 pounder and a bucket of fizz...those poor people.


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## billhill (5 August 2007)

numbercruncher said:
			
		

> Cutting back on lattes is a Ominous warning i reckon! When Starbucks see it in there bottom line its not long till others do to ...






> The most unusual economic indicator could be the noodle index. This measure originated in Thailand, but could work here as well. During tough times, consumers will buy more noodles, because they're cheaper than beef.




Heres an article about some more unusual ways to see the vital signs of an ecconomy.

http://www.pbs.org/nbr/site/onair/transcripts/061030d/


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## numbercruncher (5 August 2007)

theasxgorilla said:


> Yep, cutbacks on the horizon...A half-pounder and a litre of cola at Wendys instead of 3/4 pounder and a bucket of fizz...those poor people.





We find it easy to dish on our yankee cousins, but a recession could be good for Aussie waistlines too ....




> MORE than two-thirds of Australians living outside major cities are overweight or obese, and extremely obese corpses are creating a safety hazard at morgues, according to two studies.
> 
> Nearly three quarters of men and 64 percent of women were overweight in a study of people in rural areas.
> 
> ...




http://www.news.com.au/heraldsun/story/0,21985,22193138-5005961,00.html


Supersize me !!!


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## theasxgorilla (5 August 2007)

numbercruncher said:


> We find it easy to dish on our yankee cousins, but a recession could be good for Aussie waistlines too ....




 sadly you are sooooo right...doesn't help that  in most parts of Aust you can eat out practically every night of the week, get GREAT food and it doesn't cost that much either.


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## nomore4s (5 August 2007)

ZzzzDad said:


> American growth rate was above 3% last quarter.
> 
> The media in America is the reason people think America is in recession.  If we had a Democrat president, and this same economy, the media would be reporting how great the economy is, how low unemployment is, how high the stock market is, etc., etc.  With Bush, they push the negative side of everything.
> 
> I can guarantee that 20 years from now, people will still be predicting the demise of America and its economy.  I'm old enough to have lived through the '70s when people were predicting Japan was going to overtake American.  Didn't happen.  Now, it is supposedly China and India's turn to overtake America.  It won't happen.




lol, no Dynasty lasts forever, they all end sooner or later.


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## ZzzzDad (6 August 2007)

nomore4s said:


> lol, no Dynasty lasts forever, they all end sooner or later.





I reckon you are right about that.  In about a billion years, the sun will expand and consume the earth.  But by then, I think America will have ventured out beyond this solar system.

Optimism for America AND Australia for me.

Pessimists wither and die.


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## wayneL (6 August 2007)

nomore4s said:


> lol, no Dynasty lasts forever, they all end sooner or later.



Especially when imperial arrogance sets in.


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## ZzzzDad (6 August 2007)

The biggest losers over my lifetime have been the constant doom and gloomers, the sky is falling types.  Nothing wrong with confidence and optimism.  It is self fulfilling.

More people should try it.  Look on the bright side.

Doom and glooms breeds failure.  Optimism and hard work breeds success.


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## wayneL (6 August 2007)

ZzzzDad said:


> The biggest losers over my lifetime have been the constant doom and gloomers, the sky is falling types.  Nothing wrong with confidence and optimism.  It is self fulfilling.
> 
> More people should try it.  Look on the bright side.
> 
> Doom and glooms breeds failure.  Optimism and hard work breeds success.



That's what Cramer was doing two weeks ago.

Eyes open optimism is great. Head in the sand optimism can get folks into a lot of trouble... as we are seeing in the US mortgage sector atm... and Iraq.


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## wayneL (6 August 2007)

BTW, many bears are optimists, just in different areas and with different priorities.


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## wayneL (6 August 2007)

wayneL said:


> That's what Cramer was doing two weeks ago.
> 
> Eyes open optimism is great. Head in the sand optimism can get folks into a lot of trouble... as we are seeing in the US mortgage sector atm... and Iraq.



Let me give you an example Zzzzdad:

I notice in your profile:

Age:
    50
Location:
    Nashville TN USA
Interests:
    Long distance running

You may enter into a marathon for tomorrow and be optimistic in finishing in reasonable time. That optimism would be based upon your having trained for the event and that you are confident in your fitness for the event.

I may enter the same race and be optimistic of finishing... but I would be a fool because I am blind to the fact that I've never run the distance, am not fit and have only just recovered from a cruciate ligament injury.

There is a quantum difference in our "optimism" which is critical for survival.

Cheers


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## ZzzzDad (6 August 2007)

wayneL said:


> Let me give you an example Zzzzdad:
> 
> I notice in your profile:
> 
> ...




WayneL,
Thanks for the respectful dialogue.  That is something that is unfortunately missing on cyberspace message boards.  I don't totally disagree with you.  Head in the sand optimism is false optimism.  I go by what is a long term track record for America (and all the free democracies for that matter).  There will be temporary blips in the road, but the long term is up.  This is mainly a technology driven economy, and America is the leader in technology improvements and implementation.

A 10 or even 15% correction, which is what we are looking at does not a recession make.  On average, there have been two or more 5% or more dips every year for the past decade or so.  We are due for this, but it is still in the context of a long term bull market.

I'm more of a Kudlow optimist than a Cramer optimist.  Listening to Cramer yell and scream drives me crazy.

Let's hope I'm right.  There are many (and I'm not including you) that would love to see the downfall of the U.S., Australia, etc., in order to gain socialism in those countries.   I don't believe they will be successful, unless everyone converts to the gloom and doom sky is falling mentality.


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## wayneL (6 August 2007)

ZzzzDad said:


> There are many (and I'm not including you) that would love to see the downfall of the U.S., Australia, etc., in order to gain socialism in those countries.   I don't believe they will be successful, unless everyone converts to the gloom and doom sky is falling mentality.



I'm looking more for a "reset" in order to *re*gain healthy capitalism.

This credit bubble really needs to pop IMO, to build a solid platform from which to grow again. The more the fed tries to prop this up, the worse it will eventually become. Had Greenspan been more sensible after 911, we would be coming out of a mild recession and building solidly.

As it stands now, because of ridiculous availability of credit, we have a financially very dangerous and sociologically damaging asset bubble.

One thing is for sure, the next period will be very interesting and I for one, intend to have my @rse well covered. But yes I'm optimistic... optimistic that I can play whatever comes to my advantage.

My own lurking pessimism has to to with our western governments. There are some nasty surprises on the agenda I reckon.

But as I have said elsewhere, I'm moving to Panama (see housing thread)


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## badmarty (6 August 2007)

And I for one agree with this prediction!


Enforces that age old adage  " You can fool some of the people some of the time, But not all of the people all of the time "

[/QUOTE]

30% of Americans dont know when 9/11 took place hahaha... check this out 
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=HjtdxcNsRCM0
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=iOQLx3em7z0
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=q566ys0sqVQ&mode=related&search=
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Hp4iI59BfpQ&mode=related&search=


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## theasxgorilla (6 August 2007)

ZzzzDad said:


> This is mainly a technology driven economy, and America is the leader in technology improvements and implementation..




I agree with that and would say it's been the saving grace of America over the last few years.  Much of what was promised during dotcom has actually been delivered in the last few years.


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## robert toms (6 August 2007)

95% of Americans believed that Saddam had weapons of mass desruction !


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## numbercruncher (6 August 2007)

robert toms said:


> 95% of Americans believed that Saddam *had* weapons of mass desruction !





Well he did have and used WMDs in the past and so they where right to beleive (Just ask the Kurds whom died a gassy death), Saddam just didnt have WMDs when Americas military machine arrived.

Im not agreeing with the Iraq War, im just saying Saddam did have and used WMDs.


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## chops_a_must (6 August 2007)

numbercruncher said:


> Well he did have and used WMDs in the past and so they where right to beleive (Just ask the Kurds whom died a gassy death), Saddam just didnt have WMDs when Americas military machine arrived.
> 
> Im not agreeing with the Iraq War, im just saying Saddam did have and used WMDs.



But was it justified true belief?


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## Julia (6 August 2007)

wayneL said:


> But as I have said elsewhere, I'm moving to Panama (see housing thread)




I thought you were off to the UK, Wayne?  Has that Panamanian beauty snared you instead???


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