# SGL - Sydney Gas



## Aussiejeff (14 September 2005)

*SGL Breakout Coming!*

BIG news today for SGL.

My faith in holding and trading these shares appears now to be well founded.... ;o)

Get in quick.........

Cheers,

AJ


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## Aussiejeff (14 September 2005)

*Re: SGL Breakout Coming!*

I wonder what the new name for Sydney Gas will become at the AGM? I like the new direction they are taking. I reckon the share price SHOULD break through 70c within 2-3 months.... and the news hasn't even hit the financial papers yet ;o)...

Time will tell.  I'm glad I bought a stack at 49c! )

Cheers,

AJ

PS: The volume is now well over 2 million trades and rising.. *edit - now make that 3mill and skyrocketing.*


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## Aussiejeff (28 October 2005)

*Re: SGL Breakout Coming!*

Phew!

I was having to hold onto my shorts when SGL hit .395 yesterday having made my untimely prediction earlier in September!  Fortunately I had a few bucks left in kitty to jump in at that rock bottom price  

At last, further very positive news today (reducing debt + Q1 increasing output and revenues) shot the shares up over 22% (or 9c) to hit 50c intraday - and held on strong from there to close at 49c with plenty of buyers left haggling... I continue to hold aplenty...

Any thoughts on their proposed change of name to "Wollemi Energy Ltd" (WEL)?  

Cheers,

AJ


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## Aussiejeff (16 November 2005)

*Re: SGL Breakout Coming!*

Excellent news for SGL today! 

"Date 16/11/2005 
Author Nigel Wilson 
Source The Australian -- Page: 26 

Australian electric utility, AGL, plans to build a large gas-fired power station in New South Wales. It will spend $A200 million on the plant at Campbelltown in Sydney. The first stage could be in operation by 2009. It will be supplied with gas from the company's wholesale gas portfolio. This includes its joint venture with coal-seam gas maker, Sydney Gas. The proposed Papua New Guinea project is expected to deliver its first gas in 2009. New South Wales has forecast that generating capacity will not meet demand by 2008."

If that announcement coupled with yesterdays payment from AGL of $42m doesn't shake off investor blues with this stock in the coming months, I don't know what will!

Bargain buying atm imho.

Of course, I HOLD - so I do have a vested interest here!

Cheers - I'm almost about to break out the bubbly....

AJ


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## RichKid (1 December 2005)

*Re: SGL Breakout Coming!*

SGL still to break out but there's a trading halt in place due to an investigation into 'control' and substantial shareholder notices- what does all this mean?? lack of disclosure?? Did a google on it but no news, this company has so much going on in the background it's not funny, let's hope it settles down soon.

Have a take on it Jeff?


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## RichKid (1 December 2005)

*Re: SGL Breakout Coming!*

From today's Herald, explains it a lot, wish they'd sort this all out, looks like that AGL deal wasn't as good as it sounded. Wait and see approach now, I don't think Knight is the type of guy who takes things lying down, I still don't know what this is all about, can't run a company and make big profits when things are in such turmoil. I'm on the sidelines 'til it's all over.


> *Move on Knight gathers strength*
> By Jamie Freed
> SMH December 1, 2005
> 
> ...


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## RichKid (11 December 2005)

*Re: SGL Breakout Coming!*

Just read this, looking very sickly imo, breakout coming but maybe down like there's no tomorrow, Monday will tell all, what a  mess, shows the danger in trying to pick the bottom: http://www.smh.com.au/news/business/knight-out-of-the-sydney-gas-games/2005/12/09/1134086805567.html


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## GreatPig (8 March 2006)

Oops...

Down about 16% today at the moment 

GP


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## Rasman (11 April 2006)

Is anyone else really pissed at the SGL board? What in gods name are they doing with our investment?

the QGC takeover bid is totally to the benefit of all SGL shareholders. The board are a bunch of clueless no hopers.

They need $80mil, but are only raising $50mil, and even $50mil is more than they could handle. It really pisses me off that they are willing to dilute existing shareholders investments by such a substantial amount. If SGL don't recommend shareholders accept QGC's offer, SGL is headed for doom.

I can foresee it now - SGL stays independent, SGL share price plummits, QGC puts forward another takeover bid, but 3:1 (or even 4:1) rather than the current 2:1.

What are all these bull**** deals SGL is entering into to get a bit of money. Reading about the B&B underwriting and associated B&B benefits makes me feel physically sick - There is absolutely no benefit to SGL shareholders AT ALL! Even where SGL shareholders are allowed to purchase new shares, at the price SGL should be trading (27c pre QGC offer which took share prices to 34c in a single day, which is very similar to the current rate) the share purchase plan is a complete rip-off!

I've decided to ride the storm out and cast all votes in favour of QGC. SGL directors should be shot!

Anyone else got comments?


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## laurie (20 June 2006)

Well you were right Rasman

QGC= .71cents
SGL= .25cents

cheers laurie


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## stockGURU (26 June 2006)

Technically it looks to be forming a double bottom on both a yearly and four yearly chart. After suffering initially after the QGC takeover bid collapsed it seems to be settling at the 0.25c mark.

Does anyone have any comments on the fundamentals, especially in light of the recent recapitalisation?


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## Hopeful (27 June 2006)

If SGL closes above .27 tomorrow (June 27th) then I think it will go up further. I can see a technical buy signal on my chart there. 

I do wonder, though, why a gas producer would be in such a nasty downtrend when the energy sector has been as hot as the gas cooker. Maybe because of nuclear proliferation? I mean power plants.


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## Aussiejeff (31 August 2006)

Up 26% in 3 days... ended today at 29.5c after topping at 31c midtrading. Almost 4x buyers to sellers (about 1.2m buys to about 300,000 sells) at end of trading today so looks positive again for tomorrows open. I missed the 23.5c action but jumped back in again at 27.5c, so fingers are crossed!

Firming support I think is based on the new production and possible power station strategy just announced by the AGL/SGL joint venture and the fact it looks like they have finally got a CEO with some significant energy sector credibility (who just started on the 28th Aug). 

I would expect him to give an upbeat CEO's address to shareholders anytime soon, which *might* further underpin this phoenix's rise from the ashes.... it all depends on the timing of the announcement, as SGL's SP will likely approach a top in RSI and CMF in a few trading days from now given the current push.

Also, in the past few days the financial media spin for SGL has been rather positive, as opposed to the right royal "bashing" it received during it's fight off of QGC's takeover bid. That really hurt it's SP! Even "Inside Trader" recently listed SGL as "Pick of the week"....

Happy trading,

AJ


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## Dutchy3 (19 November 2006)

I'll be long if this one push through to 35 - 40 next in the next week or two. I like the accumulation and certainly the volume hits this last 11 months


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## Dutchy3 (14 December 2006)

Taken Long positions via CFD's in this one and is doing all the right things. MD staying around 4 - 5 : 1 and heavy volume on the bullish days. Oh for a quick ride back upto 80 - 90.


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## Aussiejeff (16 December 2006)

> MEDIA RELEASE
> CAMDEN GAS PROJECT
> SURFACE TO IN-SEAM (SIS) DRILLING PROGRAM UPDATE
> 5 December 2006
> ...




I think the key info from the above positive blurb is - "Reservoir simulation
studies indicate well performance of 2-6 times that of a vertical well depending on
reservoir heterogeneity".

I know I'm waiting with baited breath for the actual production test result figures..... even at only 2 times normal production rates, that should prove to be a significant plus for the new team and the SP in the short term - maybe breaking up to 50-55c? (it broke through 42c recently with good volumes then settled back to around 40c on profit taking - all WITHOUT any actual production data to push the SP that far). 

Given the current increased interest in all manner of CSG companies both worldwide and locally (eg QGC, MEL, AOE in particular), I figure if the increase in production is anywhere near 3-4 times per directional well, it should mean blue skies ahead for the SGL SP in the medium to longer term as well, as long as the current management team remains uncontroversial and stable! I haven't heard any negative press following the recent "open day" that SGL held for locals in the Hunter Valley.

Another plus for SGL at the moment is that the Commsec forecast is also very positive right now and financials are in much better shape. Still, my fingers are knotted for the preliminary prod rep. Shouldn't be too much longer now..

Cheers,


AJ


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## Dutchy3 (18 December 2006)

Thanks for sharing this AJ ... my system fritzzed on the weekend and I and comtemplating closing out all positions until I can get online (Xmas too and holidays etc) 

This chart is very positive though and I see its up a few ticks this morning with MD 4 : 1 ... I'll hold this


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## Aussiejeff (7 February 2007)

NICE jump in volumes (and price) today for SGL. Almost 18 million shares traded with a pre-open trade of 12,000,000 @ .38c sparking plenty of action during the day to close up 3c at 41c with buyer shares outnumbering seller shares 3:1.

The only news I could see late in the day was that the MD had bought 300,000 shares yesterday "on market", which is hopefully a good sign (tying in of their new higher producing SIS and directional wells to the new compressor in coming weeks should boost production back up nicely).

I haven't got a clue about the 12,000,000 pre-open trade. Institutional investor perhaps?

The coal seam gas sector may do very well out of the climate change policy shift in the coming years. The fact that it produces less harmful emissions than most other fuels and gases (barring hydrogen) is a plus for sure, as well as producing loads of water in the process that might well be a big positive selling point when it comes to convincing local populations of the benefits of CSG mining in their localities (as opposed to ripping coal out of the same ground!).   

Interesting times ahead methinks.....

AJ


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## chops_a_must (7 February 2007)

All of the CSG producers have kicked again since OSH announced they weren't going to continue with the pipeline. SGL doesn't look as good a prospect as some of the others though.


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## Aussiejeff (8 February 2007)

Three more directors buying .... a further 225,000 shares in past few days.

Up another 2.5c today so far. Last price I checked was 43.5.

Cheers,

AJ


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## Dutchy3 (17 June 2007)

I'm buying this tomorrow at around 40 (depends how it opens) STOP 35 ...

Smaller position initially - my reasoning is that this has put in plenty of accumulation now ...


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## Aussiejeff (18 June 2007)

Good luck Duchy...

IMO things can only get better for SGL in the coming months.

(a) New M.D. announcement pending anytime now after forced retirement of Mr Moore (health reasons).

(b) Ever increasing production from around 6 or more new wells being tied inb to the Camden network

(c) 50% Joint Venture partner AGL's recent announcement that CSM energy will be a major focus for them in the next 5-10 years (possibility of a future CSM based power station near the Camden fields perhaps?)

(d) Rocketing P/E ratios and prices of AOE, QGC etc start to make SGL's lowly current figures look better value over time.

Fingers x'ed...

AJ

[Note: I hold almost 600,000 SGL, so do your own research!!]


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## Rob_ee (2 July 2007)

SGL

Can someone please explain what happened here?
Buyers
1 4328     0.385 (ME)

Lots  of others under
at .38etc



   Last 10 Trades
Time Price Quantity 
*03:52:11 PM 0.385 288 
03:52:11 PM 0.385 344 
03:52:11 PM 0.385 183 
03:52:11 PM 0.385 259 
03:52:11 PM 0.385 556 
03:52:11 PM 0.385 270 *03:36:59 PM 0.390 1,734 
03:23:08 PM 0.390 25,000 
03:04:41 PM 0.390 1,266 
02:26:20 PM 0.390 797 

I had a buy order of 10000 @.385 which was sitting in the cue for a while
It was partially filled with about 3700 initially and then nothing for a while/

At 3:52:11    ........ 6 different orders went through for those small quantities.

Why were they sold at such prices

Rob


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## ta2693 (2 November 2007)

I suspect something is on from trading behavior. How come it rise so much in today's bear market? its performance is definitely out of pattern.
and I have done some comparison with it peers and find its very under valued.


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## Aussiejeff (2 November 2007)

Something's up at Sydney Gas. I'm wondering whether the announcement that AGL has sold it's share in Alinta for $125 profit might have something to do with "various parties" being involved in the strategic review.

A couple of years ago, there was some small talk from the then SGL management and AGL about AGL's considering building a coal seam gas fired power station out near the Camden gas fields "in the near future". Nothing has been heard since, so I wonder whether this cash windfall for AGL has anything to do with those expansion plans.

(Disclaimer: I still hold SGL - this is in no way a recommendation - do your OWN research!).


AJ


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## ta2693 (2 November 2007)

ta2693 said:


> I suspect something is on from trading behavior. How come it rise so much in today's bear market? its performance is definitely out of pattern.
> and I have done some comparison with it peers and find its very under valued.




To match the price/reserve of its peers, it is supposed to go to 56.5c per share at least.
Let alone the speculating value on its gas power station. It has a chance the rumor may come true. It will add some specie on sgl's price.


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## Aussiejeff (2 November 2007)

It's also worth noting that under the terms of the current joint venture, AGL will pay SGL _"up to an additional $51 million by 31 December 2008, in consideration for proving up additional reserves at Camden"_ which is what they are currently undertaking to do. If my math is right, with 350 million shares held by shareholders, if SGL can achieve the maximum target, that could add up to approx. 14.5c per share over yesterday's closing price alone, before this morning's Strategic Review announcement.

Interesting...

AJ


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## Aussiejeff (4 November 2007)

*SGL* closed Friday at 41.5c, up 2.5c (or 6.4%) on the previous days close.

After close of trading, SGL posted the following announcement:

_STOCK EXCHANGE ANNOUNCEMENT - CORRECTION

FIRST QUARTER ACTIVITY REPORT - APPENDIX 5B – CONSOLIDATED STATEMENT OF CASH FLOW

We refer to our report released on 31 October 2007 and note a typographical error. The
first sentence under the heading Quarter Highlights should read, “Gas sales volume this
quarter was *20%* higher than the comparable period in 2006/07” not “*12%*”.
Attached please find amended report for your information.

Pha Tran
Company Secretary_



AJ


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## Col Lector (4 November 2007)

AJ Lucas (AJL) is proving up gas resources at its Gloucester Basin CSM project where in JV with MPO (30%). This encompasses a large area that includes both Stroud & Gloucester townships. Indications suggest it could be a highly significant project with potential to supply gas to the Newcastle/Sydney market.
AJL is investigating develpment options through dedicated business arm Lucas Energy.
AJL is a vertically integrated CSM operator with 48+ drilling rigs, pipeline building capability etc. Also has historic ties to AGL....has been preferred contractor on a range of AGL (& other projects); one of the directors,Garry O'Meally was formerly AGL Gen Manager.
AGL has been constrained by reliance on others to supply gas and to meet power demands. They have stated that it considers  securing future generating capacity as a priority. 
Gas-fired power stations are in vogue. Origin's Darling Downs 400MW gas-fired power-station is publicised as Co2 efficient....equiv to taking 200 000 cars off the road vs conventional coal.
To my speculative point....
Is AGL positioning itself to ann a gas-fired powerstation for Sydney/Hunter??....And towards this, is firming up long-term gas resources...& development capability, from SGL (both Camden, then Hunter projects) and also AJL??
Plenty of synergies exist for all parties if AGL was to coordinate such an arrangement .


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## james99 (4 November 2007)

I think that regardless of whether you are right Col, the MPO share price is the one that will benefit most from the Gloucester Basin project, at least in the short term. Although MPO has a lesser share in it, its lower share price (.195 - .22 av over last week or so) means a small success in the basin has potential for a substantial percentage increase; cf the large rise necessary for a similar percentage with SGL (SP .415) and AJL (SP 3.37).

I have put to one side the capitalisation, number of shares on issue and potential returns, because those factors tend to be more relevant to longer, not short, term share prices. I have also put to one side the other projects of MPO and AJL, because both have other substantial projects. I would accept that in the long term, if AJL has an infrstructure interest as well, then obviouly that will be an extra benefit to it.

It is probably fair to say that all three have significant potential, and I think that trading styles may determine the best investment for each shareholder.


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## Col Lector (4 November 2007)

James...not sure you can assume other players/investors will disregard the factors you mentioned and focus only on the nominal sp numeral.
Consider this.....
MPO Mkt cap $178mill (@$0.20)
AJL mkt Cap $184mill (@$3.37)

MPO yet to make a profit. Forecast earnings...?
AJL (Comsec/Aspect figs) 
eps07 11.8cents PE 22.5; 
eps08 21.0c PE 16; Growth 78%;
eps 09 32.5c PE 10.4; 54%
eps 10 28.1....

Significantly, this income is generated independently of AJL's Gloucester (& QLD) potential gas production assets..! 
We are comparing apples and abalone here; although I must admit to lacking a full knowledge of MPO's other projects.
However, it must be considered that all AJL non-gas-production sectors are growing - contributing to current earnings & growth projections ...eg pipelines, directional drilling, water projects etc.
These earnings at least underwrite the sp of AJL and justify the current $3.37sp & $184 mkt cap. 

Difficult though to place a confident value on sp until the full extent of AJL/MPO Gloucester reserves are spelt out ( next couple of months). 
The value of SGL may become apparent in this time-frame also, given evident positioning there, and may help decide AJl's ultimate value.
I'm tipping a further positive rerating.... but then, I do hold a few of these..
(Duplicate of AJL Thread reply...)


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## Aussiejeff (5 November 2007)

Todays announcement.....


5 November 2007
MEDIA RELEASE
BLUE ENERGY RESPONDS TO MEDIA SPECULATION

In response to speculation about a possible transaction involving Blue Energy Limited (ASX: “BUL”) and Sydney Gas Limited (ASX: “SGL”), Blue Energy’s chairman, Mr Nick Stretch, confirms that the two companies have had informal discussions about a number of potential proposals any of which may or may not reach a stage where an announcement is appropriate.

The directors of Blue Energy will inform the ASX and shareholders immediately if and when a proposal is sufficiently developed to be appropriate for disclosure. Mr Stretch said that to disclose the nature of such preliminary discussions may have the effect of misleading the market. Until appropriate, no further comment or announcement will be made by Blue Energy.

Nick Stretch,
Chairman,
Blue Energy Limited


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## james99 (5 November 2007)

Col, all three companies, as I indicated, have potential. MPO has a variety of other and arguably more important projects than the basin.

I agree that not all investors will disregard fundamentals, but that will not necessary deter investment in either. They are at different stages of the cycle. Both have prospects and good management. My money is with one, and yours is (I infer) with the other.

You and are are in essence talking about different things. I am referring to short term market reaction and you are talking about longer term aspects. I think in the long term both are excellent. No doubt the market will determine the short term result. We could both be wrong or partially right ;-).


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## Aussiejeff (21 November 2007)

Hmmm. Bit of a move in SGL stocks this morning. Buyers jumping on board and sellers drying up, all with no further news regarding the strategic review and/or talks with BUL. There has been a fair bit of consolidation at the 40c mark over the last week or so, even with some days of thin volumes. Up 3.5 cents as I type....

AJ


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## Aussiejeff (14 January 2008)

Significant news at last!

ASX AND MEDIA RELEASE
SIGNING HEADS OF AGREEMENT WITH THE A J LUCAS
GROUP AND APPOINTMENT OF CHIEF EXECUTIVE OFFICER
14 January 2008

Sydney Gas Ltd (“Sydney Gas”) has today signed heads of agreement with the A J Lucas Group Limited (“Heads of Agreement”) (“Lucas”) and intends to appoint Andy Lukas as the new Chief Executive Officer of Sydney Gas. The transaction has the following key benefits to Sydney Gas:

1. Access to leading management, personnel, and drilling resources in the coal seam methane gas industry with transparent alignment of interests through equity investment and performance based incentives.

2. Up to A$47.2 million of additional equity capital available for accelerated exploration and development.

3. A new Chief Executive Officer and a new non-executive director, with in-depth coal seam methane gas industry experience.

A meeting of Sydney Gas shareholders will be held in March 2008 to approve key elements of the arrangements.

Under the Heads of Agreement, Lucas will make available drilling and technical resources as required by Sydney Gas to accelerate the development of its gas assets and provide A$20.0 million upfront, and an additional A$27.2 million in total over 3 years, of exploration and development capital via taking a 15% shareholding in Sydney Gas, as well as options that could upon their exercise, subject to shareholder approval, over 3 years, increase its shareholding by 40.25 million shares. There are four key elements under the Heads of Agreement:

1. Upfront capital raising of A$20.0 million via a private placement to Lucas.

2. Provision of dedicated expert technical services by Lucas.

3. Incentive arrangements to create clear alignment of interests between Sydney Gas shareholder value and Lucas.

4. Raising an additional A$12.1 million and A$15.1 million of development capital via exercise of two tranches of performance-linked options which may be exercised:

(a) in approximately 2 years time and 3 years time, respectively; and
(b) upon Sydney G as achieving an increase of its 2P reserves by at least 75PJ and 150PJ, respectively, and an increase in its share price to at least 60 cents and at least 75 cents, respectively.

See the full details here:
http://imagesignal.comsec.com.au/asxdata/20080114/pdf/00802548.pdf

Cheers,

AJ


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## Col Lector (23 February 2008)

AussieJeff....AJL's asx releases 21st & 22nd Feb are a must read for SGL followers IMO.
AJL arent known for hyperbole...and the releases should be read with this in mind. The Results Presentation (eg,Pg 16) stresses SGL's potential with AJL pulling the strings....
*well positioned in the market-place....
*has considerable reserves potential
*demand rapidly increasing in NSW gas-market
*considered very underpriced relative to peers
*Huge potential. Fits well with other CSM assets.


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## Aussiejeff (23 February 2008)

Col Lector said:


> AussieJeff....AJL's asx releases 21st & 22nd Feb are a must read for SGL followers IMO.
> AJL arent known for hyperbole...and the releases should be read with this in mind. The Results Presentation (eg,Pg 16) stresses SGL's potential with AJL pulling the strings....
> *well positioned in the market-place....
> *has considerable reserves potential
> ...




The main problem I see is that investor sentiment has now been anti-SGL for a long time, thanks to the ridiculous instability of a series of mis-management teams. The comparison chart shows that from Jun '05 the SP's of QGC and AOE started to move ahead of SGL at an ever-increasing rate. If only SGL management had accepted QGC's takeover offer, eh? Imagine the SP growth rate combined....  

However, I think you are right in that the outlook for SGL from about 6-12 months time (given AJL's expressed highly optimistic assessment for potentially large reserves and production increases) is probably better now than at any other time since the failed QGC bid. There does seem to be a faint glimmer of hope for long suffering share holders, given the pressure is now on to find more CSM gas and prices are ramping up. Now all that SGL needs to refloat their "Hindenburg" is STABLE management for at least the next 2 years, a BIG upgrade of their reserves and a LOT MORE production/drilling updates to keep investors interested than the paltry few that the current management team have offered over the last 12 months (honestly, they haven't a ruddy clue about selling their company via the wonders of modern day internet releases - unlike the flood of media releases that QGC and AOE have made in the past 12 months).

So, fingers crossed AJL know what they are getting themselves into!


AJ


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## Col Lector (23 February 2008)

AussieJeff ...agree about punter scepticism towards SGL clouding short-term.....but then, isn't that what makes SGL the perfect contrarian energy/CSM play.....The vast tenement map page 11 of the presentation from Aug 2007 sealed it for me...even to the point of printing it out..! Moving to a decision to frame it may take a little longer....but I'm making space on the wall...
http://www.sydneygas.com/download.php?id=1935
This pres is a standout ...at least rel to the rest of poor online crap offered.
The scenario that this map suggests is pretty compelling ...as I see it anyway....pipeline through PEL4 (Merriwa + Denman+Mussellbrook prospects)>through PEL267(Hunter & Maitland); AND linking with Gloucester Project gas; before feeding into the heart of high-demand Newcastle-Sydney...
Advantages of infrastructure kept to relative minimum (eg rel to ESG pipeline), inhouse construction/operate and a running start with Gloucester close to commercial production. A myriad of market options..but likely to be directed with a AGK/BNB preference.

SGL mkt cap approx 120 mill; QGC ~ 2 bill; 
How fast this gap is filled rests with AJL's ability to convert the many prospects to reserves..... i think they are confident of success....the recent releases reek of it...


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## Aussiejeff (24 April 2008)

Hey Col Lector...

Any ideas on why SGL has jumped +42% from an SP of 23.5c at close of business on Fri 18th April to currently 33.5c today (only 4 trading days) WITHOUT the announcement of any new or significant increases in production or reserves whatsoever? The last news-worthy item (not posted in Commsec News) was way back on 28th March in the local Singleton Argus: http://singleton.yourguide.com.au/news/local/general/sydney-gas-visit/1211824.html

The last official ASX announcement was back on 7th April, which only alluded to the appointment of new Operations Manager Alan Brew and in which new CEO Andy Lukas comments _"As exploration manager for the co-venturers’ Hunter Project, Sydney Gas is ramping up the exploration programme. These are exciting times and Sydney Gas is building its team to deliver on the opportunities."_ However, the SP wasn't much excited by THAT news at all, until Mon 21st April after which the big swing around in the ratio of buyers to sellers began.

Guess I'll just have to undertake a course on how to read tea leaves...... LOL


AJ


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## Col Lector (25 April 2008)

Aussiejeff....superb week!!! I posted under AJL re  SGL's apparent rebound.
I put it all down to the "Chimaera Effect"...this has made me wary of buying more...got some at 25c but was thinking it could fall to 20c if Chimaera collapsed...clients have been key players in SGL previously.
The publicised "rescue" by ANZ has had a significant effect on SGL's market depth over the last few days. The dumping of shares appears to have ceased and confidence is returning to the buy-side, as evidenced by SGL's ~40% appreciation this week to return to around the discounted levels that AJL initially purchased...ie, 34c. IMO the roll is on...



> AJL's prospects are only getting rosier as the coal-seam gas sector booms and the coal industry continues to expand. The pending NSW power-privatisation and the flagged spin-off of Lucas Energy make thing even more interesting.
> AJL continuing to attract strong buyer support on low volume... recovered ~25% over last few weeks to push back through the $4 barrier. A testament to the solid earnings profile & big upside potential of this company
> IMO the move into Sydney Gas was v.strategic and really spices up AJL's growth potential. The fit with the Gloucester project has huge upside and it cements AJL's position as a critical player, (as both resource-holder & as a key drilling/pipeline etc service provider)in the anticipated boom in NSW CSG sector.
> Initially AJL was happy to pay 38c for their large SGL stake, later reduced to 34c as the sub-prime hit the markets.
> ...


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## laurie (1 May 2008)

Hope Directors of Sydney Gas are looking at their screens right now watching AOE & QGC moing towards blue sky especially QGC @$5.22  they should be shot that's why I sold out when the T/O failed and got more QGC shares at that time I did the opposite what directors told us to do and I'm glad I did 

cheers laurie


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## Aussiejeff (1 May 2008)

laurie said:


> Hope Directors of Sydney Gas are looking at their screens right now watching AOE & QGC moing towards blue sky especially QGC @$5.22  they should be shot that's why I sold out when the T/O failed and got more QGC shares at that time I did the opposite what directors told us to do and I'm glad I did
> 
> cheers laurie




Hi laurie. A V.Good move by you in retrospect! I often think the directors of SGL (certainly past ones and some recent ones too) don't even bother to look at their screens! If they did, they might shoot themselves rather than have someone else do it for them!

You only have to read their sub-standard, amateurish quarterly reports (where's the professional looking, detailed production graphs etc, or even a "modern" format, that QGC, AOE and most of the others can offer?). Surely they can employ someone who can spiff-up the reports for a start! Not only that, but the reports are only quarterly at best of late. They should be informing shareholders at least once a month! 

At least the new CEO Andy Lukas seems to be trying harder to win over the local Hunter community. Hopefully with some success.

Cheers,

AJ


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## Col Lector (6 May 2008)

Giday AJ, Laurie.... Some nice momentum lately...
Chart attached showing the dramatic turnabout from late April 
quite a stark breakout to current 39c.
Has been an ugly duckling but IMO we are seeing a transformation in sentiment though still largely under the radar...
Positive sp response appears closely linked with:
*"solving" of the Chimaera uncertainty (selling depth transformed within a day or two)
*the increased focus on & valuation of coalseam sector.
* Size & strategic position of SCM tenements
*AJL's incentivised involvement & expertise
*NSW dynamics flowing from electricity privatisation.


----------



## Aussiejeff (6 May 2008)

Col Lector said:


> Giday AJ, Laurie.... Some nice momentum lately...
> Chart attached showing the dramatic turnabout from late April
> quite a stark breakout to current 39c.
> Has been an ugly duckling but IMO we are seeing a transformation in sentiment though still largely under the radar...
> ...




Hi Col Lector.

SP looked like it was going to bolt this morning. Pre-open was slated for 41.5c with quite a few bids over the last close of 39.0c. then just seconds before open - *bang* - a single large wad at 39.0c jumped into the SELL queue and covered those to open flat. Since then there has been the usual tug-of-war between down-sellers and buyers. 

I wouldn't be surprised that one of the main sellers over the last month has probably been Chimaera Capital. I wonder how many more shares they have up their sleeve(s) that they intend to sell off? 

Anyway, as I see it, in the short-medium term the only way SGL's SP will LEAP forward in any meaningful and long term way (regardless of SP fiddling by Chimaera et all) is:

(a) prove up substantial Hunter region reserves (15c+?)
(b) obtain a full production licence for the Hunter leases (25c+?)
(c) prove up substantial increase in Camden reserves (10c+?)
(d) obtain maximum payment from AGK (abt $AU50m) for sufficient proved up Camden reserves (10c+?)

Given the current SP near 40c, if all those things can come together by the end of December (after which the Camden reserves payment by AGK will be calculated), I reckon there is potential for the SP to have moved to near $1.00+ It's all a bit in the lap of the gods, as well as Andy Lukas lap!

Still, I'm not greedy. LOL. I'd be pretty happy to see 75c given the past 3 years of mis-management!

In the meantime, unless Andy can start better informing investors with more regular production and/or drilling updates, I think the SP will struggle to get to 45c. IMO.

Cheers,

AJ

(I hold SGL)


----------



## Aussiejeff (27 May 2008)

Sydney Gas (SGL) jumped up 13.25% today to 47c. I noticed this BIG single trade on Commsec:

*03:49:45 PM 0.440 10,000,000 4,400,000.00 XTSPOS *

According to Commsec's Code help, I presume the code letters mean:

*XT* = Crossing Trade
*SP* = Block Special Crossing 
*OS* = Overseas

So, would I be correct in guessing that some overseas entity has been involved in a single trade of 10,000,000 SGL shares (at .44 per share) for the total princely sum of $4,400,000?

Still no major news on the drilling front either.... hopeful.

AJ

(I hold)


----------



## Col Lector (27 May 2008)

AJ...was watching the SGL games this afternoon. The chart shows the dramatic buying rush 2pm till auction close. Doesnt appear to show the 10 mill buy...though I saw it go through...raised an eyebrow at the time.
IMO QGC's move into NSW will accelerate consolidation of positions. Significantly the proposed QGC pipeline route will travel through SGL's high prospectivity/priority very sizeable Hunter tenements and therefore raises all sorts of scenarios that may play out... tommorrow will be interesting.
Anyone else holding these??


----------



## Jonathan111 (27 May 2008)

http://aussiewealthreview.com/?p=147
_Have you noticed that natural gas prices have broken double figures…yet Aussie prices haven’t broken $3.50 for years? Gas futures in New York are trading at $11.44. John Durie of The Australian, reckons Aussie gas wholesales for about $3._


----------



## Jonathan111 (28 May 2008)

I assume that SGLs reserves are very close to the proposed QGC power station.

Do you think that SGL could now be a takeover target again?


----------



## kingbrown (28 May 2008)

*Re: SGL - Sydney Gas Vs Eastern Star Gas*

I'd say Eastern Star would be in the firing line 1st up ?
As QGC pipeline proposal appears to run right through their 
CSM acreage 
QGC has had a go at SGL before and it all makes sense 
Either way imo 
Some one is going to start swallowing up these smaller CSM stocks 
If the proposal gets the green light from the NSW govt prices may go Nth  
I know quite a few day traders are looking over the NSW CSM stocks 
I'd say we may have a good day   ?


----------



## Aussiejeff (30 May 2008)

*SGL* finished up a further 3.5c (or +7.9%) at 48c today while *AJL* had a stellar run - up 95c (or +17.1%) to $6.50 at the close. 

Both performing strongly with all this CSM activity gearing up..... can it continue?



AJ 
(I hold SGL)


----------



## Tysonboss1 (30 May 2008)

Aussiejeff said:


> *SGL* finished up a further 3.5c (or +7.9%) at 48c today while *AJL* had a stellar run - up 95c (or +17.1%) to $6.50 at the close.
> 
> Both performing strongly with all this CSM activity gearing up..... can it continue?
> 
> ...




hi jeff

Is sgl producing yet, if so are they earnings per share positive.

What are their 2p reserves.


----------



## Aussiejeff (30 May 2008)

Tysonboss1 said:


> hi jeff
> 
> Is sgl producing yet, if so are they earnings per share positive.
> 
> What are their 2p reserves.




Last Q reported 1320 TJ production (Close to achieving positive operating cashflow).

Reserves (as of 31 Dec 2005 which I think is the latest available?)

1P = 59 Pj
2P = 83 Pj
3P = 109 Pj

I would be really surprised if those reserves didn't increase sharply at the next announcement - due by end December (hopefully sooner).


Cheers,

AJ
(I hold)


----------



## Jonathan111 (31 May 2008)

Aussiejeff said:


> Last Q reported 1320 TJ production (Close to achieving positive operating cashflow).
> I would be really surprised if those reserves didn't increase sharply at the next announcement - due by end December (hopefully sooner).
> 
> 
> ...





If anyone knows whether those reserves are going to increase it would probably be the AJ Lucas Group Limited.  

Over the last month AJL have been purchasing more shares in SGL.


----------



## sillybilly (31 May 2008)

Common sense says the reserves have increased. Reserve estimates are based on core sample analysis and production data.

Sydney gas has more than two years of production data since the last estimates were published. In addition, at least four cores have been drilled in the Camden area.

Two questions:

1) By how much have the reserves increased?

2) When will the data be made public?

For right now, the SGL share price is riding on the back of the booming CSG sector. Surely, it's only a matter of time before the SGL share price begins to rise on its own accord?


----------



## sillybilly (31 May 2008)

Sorry,

I should have added that I hold SGL. I think my most recent parcell was purchased back in Feb this year at $0.29.

Bill.


----------



## Aussiejeff (1 June 2008)

sillybilly said:


> Common sense says the reserves have increased. Reserve estimates are based on core sample analysis and production data.
> 
> Sydney gas has more than two years of production data since the last estimates were published. In addition, at least four cores have been drilled in the Camden area.
> 
> ...




Hehe. You have asked two $64,000 questions.....

Any long term shareholders would be hoping the l-o-o-o-o-ng wait for a reserves upgrade announcement from SGL will be well worth it! Especially so since just about every other CSG company has announced at least one upgrade (or even more) over the same time frame. 

Most of those other companies reporting reserves upgrades have shot ahead in SP as a result (eg: AOE, QGC etc). 

Time (as always) will tell - tick...tick....


AJ
(I hold)


----------



## sillybilly (1 June 2008)

I do not expect any reserves to be booked against the Hunter prospect until mid next year. I base this on:

1) Each core hole takes about six weeks to complete. The current exploration programme calls for at least 10 wells. 10 wells x 6 weeks each = 60 weeks. By now the third well has probably been started.

2) A pilot well programme, yet to be announced, will be required to test flow and pressure. This data will be an input to the reserves model.

3) Based on my observations of the New South Wales CSG sector, the necessary Government approvals could prove to take a long time.

But........

The above scenario allows for only one coring rig in the Hunter Valley. The technical agreement with AJL calls for a minimum of three drilling rigs. At the time the third quarter activities report was issued there was one rig operating in Camden and one rig operating in the Hunter Valley. Clearly, if a second coring rig was deployed to the Hunter Valley the coring exercise would be halved. What if a third rig was added to commence the pilot well programme in paralled with the coring programme?

Camden is a different story. I will be disappointed if a new reserve statement is not released this year.

I think the alliance with AJL will unlock the true value of SGL. I'm confident the market will recognise this during the next twelve months. I also think SGL is not a takeover target...not yet. Based on the SGL news that is in the public arena, a prospective predator might find it hard to justify the premium to get long term shareholders like myself to sell. This time next year might be a different story. On the other hand, a big player might say screw the risk and make an irresistable offer.

Friday's action was very interesting. Lots of end of month trading, no doubt more frenetic than usual because of the big deals being struck in Queensland. Tomorrow will be very interesting.

Good luck to everyone.

Bill.


----------



## Aussiejeff (2 June 2008)

sillybilly said:


> I do not expect any reserves to be booked against the Hunter prospect until mid next year. I base this on:
> 
> 1) Each core hole takes about six weeks to complete. The current exploration programme calls for at least 10 wells. 10 wells x 6 weeks each = 60 weeks. By now the third well has probably been started.
> 
> ...




I guees my main concern for the past 12 months is the LACK of regular market updates (eg: monthly updates at least) of where SGL is at with respect to drilling/production rates. Other companies seem willing to promote their "achievements" in that regard through REGULAR market announcements and updates. No such luck from SGL. 

E-mails by myself to management (including the new CEO) over the past months querying this apparent "neglect" of market awareness have not yet resulted in any increase in updates. Nor has there been a market announcement regarding the proposed drilling service agreement (originally announced to be signed in March?).

I find this situation rather puzzling, as good companies generally want to promote themselves as much as possible - but SGL is VERY quiet of late. I can only put it down to the following factors:

(a) Management are becoming aware as the core results come in over time that the expected reserves increase is going to be substantially larger than expected, making SGL a target for rapid predatory takeover, hence better to "keep it under wraps" till the last minute.

(b) Management are becoming aware as the core results come in over time that the expected reserves increase is going to be substantially smaller than expected, making SGL a target for heavy selling pressure in the interim, hence better to "keep it under wraps" till the last minute.

(c) Management haven't got a clue how to promote the company to the public and shareholders in general via market announcements, media presentations etc.

With AJL buying more SGL shares over the last few months, it would seem that (b) is not likely to eventuate, leaving (a) as the hoped-for outcome. So, perhaps (a) IS what is keeping them quiet - for now. I'll believe it when I see it.

Most of all though, I really, really hope that factor (c) has NO part to play either now or in SGL's future - that pitiful factor has certainly been evident in the near past! The suspense and secrecy over the reserves situation for the last 2 years or so has been a total drag.... may it end SOON! (at least for Camden if not Hunter)



AJ
(I hold)


----------



## Col Lector (2 June 2008)

AJ, I like a. And conspiracy theories.
Today looks like it could be an exciting ride. Buyers stacking up.


----------



## Aussiejeff (2 June 2008)

Col Lector said:


> AJ, I like a. And conspiracy theories.
> Today looks like it could be an exciting ride. Buyers stacking up.




AJL looking very thin on the sell side too.... good luck today to AJL holders (I don't hold..).

Makes you wonder what sort of interest SGL might generate if and when the BIG announcements come. SP has now climbed almost 100% in last couple of months with no major upgrade announcements - only "proposals"?


Cheers,

AJ
(holding)


----------



## sillybilly (2 June 2008)

The perentage share price increase that holders of SGL have enjoyed over the past five weeks is reflective of the whole sector.

Does SGL have a peer to draw an operational/exploration comparison from?

It's my understanding that Andy Lucas is out of the country on business. I wouldn't expect any significant annoucnements in his abscence.

Bill

(I continue to hold...)


----------



## agro (3 June 2008)

i am a big believer in the coal seam gas boom at the moment 

having watched SGL for the last couple of days, i notice it tends to open at a high price and then get smashed with profit taking..

is it stalling or taking a breather before it hits $1 and is in par with its competitors ?

also the fact that it is in JV when AGL tickles my fancy... and not to mention there was speculation of talks with BUL (blue energy) within last couple of months..

is also true that QGC made a take over for SGL a while back??


----------



## kingbrown (6 June 2008)

Interesting news on abc Late Line last night 

Re gas 

Coal seam gas sector 


http://www.abc.net.au/lateline/business/


----------



## Aussiejeff (6 June 2008)

kingbrown said:


> Interesting news on abc Late Line last night
> 
> Re gas
> 
> ...




Of course, no mention of SGL prospects.

IMO SGL's SP rise since 18th Apr (23.5c) to today (about 46c) has been almost entirely courtesy of all the publicity and interest generated by the two most rapidly expanding players in the CSM industry (QGC, AOE). A little interest by the AJL buy-in has helped too.

However, unless SGL is somehow doing some good deals "behind the scenes" that we few bunny "investors" are blissfully being kept unaware of (I suspect at the current pathetic rate of investor up-dating that SGL will have no further major announcements to make until the end of year report in July), it risks being trampled by these other rampant CSM bulls in the stampede to secure looming massive NSW and Fed Government project support. 

Talk about leaving their run late.......

*sweat*

AJ
(holding... hopefully not Aces and 8's...)


----------



## Aussiejeff (6 June 2008)

Quoting from SGL's home page

_"*How Much Gas is in the Hunter?* 

SGL completed the feasibility study in May 2003. The results are as follows:

* total resource of 673 billion cubic feet (BCF); and

* reserve (recoverable gas resources) of 424 BCF (at a 63% recovery rate),

The 100 square kms (24,890 acres) study area focused on the resource potentially available from five coal seams: Blakefield, Glen Munro, Woodlands Hill, Mt Arthur and Piercefield, for the commercial production of gas for use in the Singleton-Muswellbrook and Newcastle regions. There are significantly more seams available that can be produced from in the area and exploration activities are focused on fully quantifying reserves.

On 16 July 2002, the (then) Premier of NSW, the Hon Bob Carr MP, announced in Newcastle that the Government had signed a Deed of Agreement with SGL to study the feasibility of commercial production of gas in the upper Hunter region around Singleton and Muswellbrook. 

When announcing the Agreement, Mr Carr said that, "This is an important study that has the potential to create jobs, improve mine safety, help the environment and *provide an alternative energy source for the upper Hunter*."_

That was a l-o-o-ng way back in 2002.

How long is a piece of string...... 

How far down that piece of string has SGL managed to inch?


Ummm... sorry for being a tad downcast today..... all this *Wow* Factor news over the last 6 months from AOE and QGC while SGL skulks down a deep horizontal hole is making my head hurt..... LOL

I'll just go and have a little lie down now, ok?


AJ


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## Aussiejeff (6 June 2008)

I haven't had my Bex powder (Tm) yet....

This is what SGL should be emulating as far as investor updates... 

http://www.qgc.com.au/01_cms/details.asp?ID=156


In comparison, SGL's website is out of date and amateurish

'Nuff said.

AJ


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## Jonathan111 (6 June 2008)

Hey Jeff,

page 6 of the Interim Report for the Half-Year ended 31 December 2007 states the following:
*Likely developments and expected results of operations*
_Information on likely developments in the operations of the consolidated entity and the expected results of operations have not
been included in this interim report because the directors believe it would be likely to result in unreasonable prejudice to the
consolidated entity._

What do they mean? There must be gas in Sydney.  

I think there is **** loads of gas there.

AJL only need 75pj increase to get their 60c options.

Jonathan
I hold


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## sillybilly (6 June 2008)

A disappointing end to a disappointing week.

After touching $0.57 on Monday the sp is 15% less than this time last week.

To my frustration (read jeasouly), ESG is capturing all of the CSG lime light in New South Wales all because there might be a pipe line passing through its acerage on its way to a power station that might get constructed in a few years time. Good luck to all of the ESG shareholders. Don't forget to leave some profit in the market for others.

I don't understand. ESG and SGL operationally are very similar. Both are in the early stages of a reserves certification programme and both have similar gas in place estimates. SGL has gas producing infrastructure in place at Camden (ESG has no infrastructure), SGL has a number of petroleum production licences (ESG has none) and SGL operates inside the largest market in Australia.

Where is it all going wrong?


----------



## TheAbyss (6 June 2008)

Sydney Gas has finally worked out how to get product out of Camden albeit very slowly. SGL will require either increased equity or JV partners to evaluate and develop its projects. This means dilution or debt.

SGL will need to lift its flow rates at Camden from in-seam drilling plus lift its news flow from exploration and evaluation in the Hunter if they want to stay in touch with the CSG field.

just an opinion.


----------



## sillybilly (6 June 2008)

I've gone a dipped by head in a bucket of ice water and feel much calmer now.

Agree that horizntal wells are the way to go. Unlikely to see too many more vertical wells in the Camden area - the coal seams are too narrow at only 2-3m each.

Eight new productin wells are coming on line at Camden. Would be nice to see some data.

Bill


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## TheAbyss (6 June 2008)

SGL will have their day. Their worst days are behind themand the Hunter will be their vehicle to success. The hard yards are done. If you have CSG plays then you are in business.

My concern is that that some large reserves are going to be coming online by a lot of companies.

I would feel worse if i was a traditional gas play though.


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## Jonathan111 (7 June 2008)

Sydney Gas's Camden project..... the amount of gas flowing from its wells has been underwhelming....
(http://business.smh.com.au/gas-bonanza-20080606-2mzw.html?page=fullpage#contentSwap2)

_Lucas is confident that a revised drilling plan has the potential to prove up significant additional reserves within the Sydney Basin _(http://www.lucas.com.au/Divisions/Investments.htm) 

The prospect of LNG exports which requires liquefying gas for export....international partners are more interested in the profits associated with selling LNG at prices like $US17 a gigajoule rather than selling gas into the domestic market at less than $4 a gigajoule

"There is a risk that any development of an LNG export project could reduce the availability of gas to the domestic market in eastern Australia," said a report by the international energy consultancy Wood Mackenzie that was submitted to the Owen Inquiry into NSW's electricity supply last year.

"Whilst still to be proven commercially, the indigenous gas supply of NSW has the potential to grow dramatically and reduce the need for interstate gas importation in the future," Wood Mackenzie said. "The ultimate potential of this industry in eastern Australia could be enormous."

ALTHOUGH NSW does not produce nearly as much coal-seam gas as Queensland, there is a lot of potential. And all of the prime acreage has been tied up for years by a handful of players who are running active exploration programs...

...As part of a new pipeline plan, QGC expects to pipe its gas down to NSW to supply a proposed power station in the Hunter Valley. But in addition to linking Queensland's coal-seam gas supply to NSW, the pipeline could lead to an added bonus...

..QGC's Cottee is not worried about the competition; instead he wants to encourage the development of the industry...


The NSW Government acknowledges the state remains highly underexplored for natural gas compared to neighbouring states, even though it is Australia's largest market for the fuel. 

(http://business.smh.com.au/gas-bonanza-20080606-2mzw.html?page=fullpage#contentSwap2)


----------



## Aussiejeff (7 June 2008)

Jonathan111 said:


> Sydney Gas's Camden project..... the amount of gas flowing from its wells has been underwhelming....




Oh dear. More negative media sentiment like that will likely put a lead sinker under the SP come next week!

If it drops back to 25c, maybe a big shark will snap it up for peanuts..... 



AJ


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## Jonathan111 (7 June 2008)

http://wollombi.nsw.au/documents/doc-22-information-notice-wollombi.pdf

Information Notice to the Resident
30th May 2008
Dear Sir/Madam,
Re: Sydney Gas Exploration Activity‐‐‐Wollombi 01

I am writing to advise you that Sydney Gas will soon be conducting gas exploration work in your area and to invite you to a “Community Presentation” to explain the activities and address any questions you may have.
*Sydney Gas is currently exploring the Hunter for coal seam gas reserves. As part of the exploration program, we will be drilling a core hole in the above‐mentioned area. *To explain what a core hole is, we have enclosed the latest copy of our community newsletter. On page 3, you will find a description and the process involved. To view a map of the area, you can visit our website:
www.sydneygas.com (Exploration/Field Activites/Wollombi 01)
In the coming days we will commence preparation of this site to accommodate the arrival of the drilling rig. This will include activities such as building a temporary road to the site. *We expect that the drilling will take less than nine weeks.*
The drilling will be confined to:
7:00am to 6:00pm, Monday—Friday
7:00am to 1:00pm, Saturday



Sydney Gas will commence Exploratory Drilling in Wollombi (across from Mulla Villa) and Paynes Crossing (Stockyard Creek) with preparatory work and the Wollombi rig going up THIS WEEK


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## Jonathan111 (7 June 2008)

The Hunter gas exploration activities could add another 20-30PJ of production per annum given the thicker coal seams of those areas and the good gas contents. http://www.sydneygas.com/content.php/2.html#mod12

http://www.sydneygas.com/download.php?id=1981


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## Aussiejeff (11 June 2008)

Well, blow me down....

An announcement!

----------------------------

_"MEDIA RELEASE:

*SYDNEY GAS GRANTED SIXTH PRODUCTION LEASE*

11 June 2008

Sydney Gas Ltd advises that the Minister for Mineral Resources has granted NSW’s sixth Petroleum Production Lease (“PPL”) under the Petroleum (Onshore) Act 1991 to Sydney Gas for a 21 year term. PPL 6 covers an area of 7.2 km² at Camden. AGL Production (Camden) Pty Ltd and Sydney Gas (Camden) Operations Pty Ltd now holds five petroleum production leases: PPLs 1, 2, 4, 5 and 6 covering an aggregate area of 213.20 km²."_

http://imagesignal.comsec.com.au/asxdata/20080611/pdf/00849830.pdf

-----------------------------

Well, not the BIG one (eg: Hunter licence), but better than nothing I suppose.

Cheers?

AJ
(holding)


----------



## sillybilly (11 June 2008)

IMO, no chance of a PPL this year for the Hunter.

What is far more frustrating is no commentary about the significance of the additional PPL. What does the new PPL allow the company to achieve? Does it allow the immediate connection of completed production wells to the Rosiland Park facility or is for future wells? How many? etc etc

I wonder how long it took for the PPL to be approved?

Bill


----------



## Jonathan111 (11 June 2008)

Rights to commercially produce coal seam gas will be available only by way of petroleum production lease. (www.aar.com.au/pubs/pdf/res/foresaug03.pdf)

On another topic,

I think the "Chimaera Effect" has passed for now... 

Someone bought a huge amount of shares on the 27th of May at _03:49:45 PM 0.440 10,000,000 4,400,000.00 XTSPOS_....
..on the 27th May the General Counsel of Sydney Gas advised that approval had been granted for each of the five Wollombi coreholes..

Remember that AJL bought approx 4.7 million shares in the month of May

Hopefully it is time to put away the bucket of ice water.

Jonathan
(I hold)


----------



## Aussiejeff (12 June 2008)

sillybilly said:


> IMO, no chance of a PPL this year for the Hunter.




IMO you are probably right. "Hopefully" though there will be some detailed information in the next few months regarding core hole progress and findings.



> What is far more frustrating is no commentary about the significance of the additional PPL. What does the new PPL allow the company to achieve? Does it allow the immediate connection of completed production wells to the Rosiland Park facility or is for future wells? How many? etc etc
> 
> I wonder how long it took for the PPL to be approved?
> 
> Bill




Agree entirely Bill. Again, one would wish that the new management team will start to promote the company better and provide a lot more detail on what such announcements mean for the future of SGL! The past track record for keeping shareholders informed has been appalling, so here's hoping.....

AJ


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## Aussiejeff (12 June 2008)

Jonathan111 said:


> Rights to commercially produce coal seam gas will be available only by way of petroleum production lease. (www.aar.com.au/pubs/pdf/res/foresaug03.pdf)
> 
> On another topic,
> 
> ...




Good points Jonathan. I "hope" you are right and the ice bucket need not be tended so closely in the near future and beyond! (I'd also love to put the "hope" word to bed for a rest too!!)

Have you thought about applying to SGL for an Investor & Media Relations position? 


AJ
(holding)


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## Jonathan111 (14 June 2008)

Aussiejeff said:


> Have you thought about applying to SGL for an Investor & Media Relations position?
> 
> AJ
> (holding)





Sounds like an interesting position...


Investor Relations 
•	Maximise the value of SGL stock by communicating effectively with institutional investors (security analysts, pension fund managers, money managers, mutual fund managers), large individual investors, and stockbrokers via investor conferences, teleconference calls, company-sponsored meetings, plant tours and one-on-one meetings, as appropriate. 
•	Communicate the company’s strategies in an accurate and balanced manner, ensuring management credibility is maintained and that all ASX /ASIC reporting requirements are met. 
•	Differentiate SGL stock versus alternative investment options by highlighting SGL’s competitive advantages, market position and corporate strategies. 
•	Develop and implement strategies to identify and attract new investors which fit an appropriate profile and retain existing investors. 
•	Advise and consult with executive management recommending IR strategies, key measures and courses of action to address shareholder issues, and communicate external perceptions of the Company to executive management. 
•	Maintain accurate lists of shareholders, monitoring changes in ownership of significant holders. 
Media Relations 
•	Direct development, coordination and execution of short and long range public relations strategies, objectives, plans and programs. 
•	Develop publicity programs to place ‘positive news’ supporting key company initiatives, marketing efforts, new business ventures, philanthropic efforts, etc. 
•	Direct consideration, development and execution of local and national institutional advertising to promote SGL. Establish and maintain favourable relations with all media (local, national and international) including newspapers, news services, professional journalists, radio, TV and business magazines. 
•	Direct the development, production and distribution of the Annual Report and quarterly financial releases. Ensures all public releases meet disclosure requirements and conform to ASX/ASIC regulations. 
•	Develop the strategy and content of the IR section of the SGL web-site. 
•	Participate as appropriate in directing crisis communications / contingency plan, monitoring the issues that have the potential to develop into negative situations.

SKILLS REQUIRED: 
•	Five to ten years of related experience, working closely with the investment community and/or the media 
•	Exposure to the industrial sector 
•	Outstanding written and verbal presentation skills 
•	Impeccable level of integrity and credibility 
•	Capable of interacting with all levels of management 
•	Proven financial analytical skills 
•	Advanced Degree (MBA or Communications)



http://www.buysellsignals.com/BuySe...ckResearch.do?market=Australia&companyid=1957
PRICE VOLUME DYNAMICS
Volatility: The stock traded between a two-day low of 43.0c and two-day high of 46.0c. 
Moving Average Price (MAP): The price to 200-day MAP ratio is 1.28, a bullish indicator. In the past 200 days this ratio has exceeded 1.28 ten times suggesting further upside. The stock is trading above both its MAPs and the 50-day MAP of 36.53c is higher than the 200-day MAP of 34.79c, a bullish indicator. The 200-day MAP has increased to 34.79c. An increase is another bullish indicator. 
Relativities: Since open its percentile rank in the Australian market was 38. In the Australian market of 2,103 stocks, the stock has a 6-month relative strength of 91 which means it is beating 91% of the market. 
Volume and Turnover Period: There were 585,522 shares worth $262,297 traded. The turnover rate in the 12 months to date was 62.5% (or a turnover period of 1 year 7 months). This average length of ownership of the stock at 1.5 times the average holding period of 1 year 31 days for stocks in the S&P/ASX 200 Index suggests a larger number of core investors, making a long-term investment safer. 
% Discount to High: The last price is at a discount of 19.1% to the 12-month high of 55.0c. 
Volume Weighted Price (VWP): The price is at a discount of 3.0% to the 1-month volume weighted average price of 45.85c, which may appeal as a value proposition. 
Beta is 0.7.


----------



## Aussiejeff (14 June 2008)

Re: Announcement back on April 30: Sydney Gas appoints landholder relations manager


_Sydney Gas Company Ltd appointed *Dana Hollis* as *manager landholder relations* on April 30, 2008. Ms.Hollis has experience in oil and gas industry in North America and community relations in radio, ski-field management, and hotel industry in Australia._


Not a peep from that appointment..... been with the company for a month and a half now. Wonder what she is getting paid for.

And who knows when those "drilling and technical services" agreements (supposed to be signed back in March) will ACTUALLY be signed....  


AJ
(holding)


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## pointr (14 June 2008)

Hi Aussiejeff, perhaps or hopefully perhaps her activity is directed at relevant landholders and other target groups rather than the investment community. On a PR note its a pity SGL included Sydney in its name, its work in the hunter and elsewhere may have been simplified without it, but it's no use changing it now


----------



## Jonathan111 (20 June 2008)

A picture of a Hunter coal gaswell


----------



## Aussiejeff (21 June 2008)

> A picture of a Hunter coal gaswell




Hi Jonathan.

Unfortunately, with fanatical opposition by the like of the HGAG (Hunter Gas Action Group), it seems SGL might be "bogged down" in that region for an unknown timeframe. See this reply from SGL to solicitor Graeme Gibson (for the HGAG). From the responses in the letter, it appears some members of the HGAG (especially Mr Gibson) are on a "mission" to stop SGL drilling at all cost.

http://www.huntergasactiongroup.com.au/pdf/ltr-to-Graeme Gibson-16-June-2008.pdf

*sigh*

In fact, the HGAG website is worth a browse anyway, as they seem to have more info on SGL's operations (eg: the terms of access agreements) than SGL offers to it's own shareholders!!

AJ
(holding)


----------



## Jonathan111 (27 June 2008)

Hi AJ,

I read all that HBAG stuff. SGL have spent alot of time preparing these reports and informing these people, even though they have no legal obligation to.. Although i think SGL are trying to meet a moral obligation by doing so.  The more they inform these people the more these people argue back .  I dont think all the other CSG companies communicate this much information... Do they? 

They should offer employment to the local people and start up an Apprenticeship/Traineeship program.




I was suprised today to see an actual update!!! 

HUNTER EXPLORATION UPDATE
"Sydney Gas Ltd (SGL) is pleased to advise that its Hunter exploration activities continued during the current financial quarter as planned."


J111,
(holding)

i sold at 50 and bought back in (cover losses from last tax yr).. but i wont try that again.. in case i miss the boat heading towards 60c and then $1..


----------



## sillybilly (28 June 2008)

Very interesting piece I just found on the Internet.........

http://www.platts.com/Coal/News/8838398.xml?src=Coalrssheadlines1

Assuming the content of the article is true, I wonder what financial committment SGL might have to make? Is there a risk that this will distract SGL from its activities in the Hunter? Like most prospects in Australia, the Hunter looks very promising, particularly now that there is going to be a second rig coming on board.

I would be guessing, but SGL will most likely have to issue a statement to the ASX this coming week.

Bill

I hold SGL.


----------



## Aussiejeff (29 June 2008)

sillybilly said:


> Very interesting piece I just found on the Internet.........
> 
> http://www.platts.com/Coal/News/8838398.xml?src=Coalrssheadlines1
> 
> ...




Crikey! That news article is totally out of left field for SGL, Bill. I'm stunned..  Is that what Andy Lukas was up to when he was "out of the country" the last few weeks?

As you suggest, one would wonder where they are going to get the finance for this, when they are struggling to get to a profitable operating income in Australia! Perhaps I would have preferred you had dug up a surprise announcement that they had struck a huge oil deposit at Camden instead! LOL. 

Oh well. Let's see what come of it....

BTW, I thought it was AJ Lucas who had the drilling knowhow - not SGL?

AJ


----------



## Aussiejeff (29 June 2008)

On the flip side, the Hunter Bulga Action Group (aka solicitor Graeme Gibson) has stepped up it's (his?) campaign against SGL's Hunter drilling program. See this recent Parliamentary Question he refers to ... http://wollombi.nsw.au/news/display/69

and a Cessnock Council question as well .....
http://wollombi.nsw.au/news/display/67

GG seems to have a lot of time on his hands to push his barrow. I don't know anything about his background. Anyone care to offer some? I'm presuming he wouldn't be such a thorn in the side in Indonesia 



AJ
(holding)


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## sillybilly (29 June 2008)

Agree the HBAG are a concern.

From a distance it's just too hard to tell if HBAG are being unreasonable or if SGL are being dismissive of community concerns. SGL's reluctance to release information about their activities is probably based on a "softly, softly" approach. Hopefully, SGL and HBAG can reach agreement on land access protocol.

Fingers crossed for more news this week.

Bill


----------



## arminius (30 June 2008)

gday all. first post this thread. 
i note the queries about the hbag. i have friends and relatives out that way, and i can say that they are extremely passionate about the issue. 
they arent going away anytime soon, and based on the proposal and its effects on the area, nor should they.


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## Aussiejeff (30 June 2008)

arminius said:


> gday all. first post this thread.
> i note the queries about the hbag. i have friends and relatives out that way, and i can say that they are extremely passionate about the issue.
> they arent going away anytime soon, and based on the proposal and its effects on the area, nor should they.




Hi arminius. As a shareholder of course I'm curious to know whether HBAG's passionate opposition would count against *all* gas explorer/producers within HBAG's area of interest and not just relate to Sydney Gas? 

Or is the opposition purely centered on that company alone (I ask this because obviously some other players in CSG exploration/production will want to move in, if SGL fails to develop these fields in the short term?)


AJ
(hold)


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## pointr (30 June 2008)

Well( a good word to start a gas post), last time I drove through that area, past the yellow anti-CSG,SGL signs it struck me as somewhat ironic that people were agitated about a comparitively low impact energy development, when within maybe 150mtrs of a sign was a HUGE overburden heap from an open cut coal mine. So I hope locals keep it in perspective and also the big picture of gas turbine electricity's lower carbon footprint than that produced by coal fired steam turbines. We only hold a few SGL shares.


----------



## sillybilly (30 June 2008)

Hi all,

As a shareholder, I'm curious to know what impacts SGL's operations are going to have on the environment. I support enironmentally friendly development.

When somebody like Graeme Gibson and the organisation he represents starts to make accusations about the behaviour of a company or an individual there really needs to be some supporting evidence. It is extremely misleading to compare the environmental record of CSG operations in Australia with what transpired in the US 20 years ago.

Just my opinion.

By the way, that article linking SGL to an operation in Indonsesia seems to be bogus.

Bill


----------



## Aussiejeff (30 June 2008)

pointr said:


> Well( a good word to start a gas post), last time I drove through that area, past the yellow anti-CSG,SGL signs *it struck me as somewhat ironic that people were agitated about a comparitively low impact energy development, when within maybe 150mtrs of a sign was a HUGE overburden heap from an open cut coal mine.* So I hope locals keep it in perspective and also the big picture of gas turbine electricity's lower carbon footprint than that produced by coal fired steam turbines. We only hold a few SGL shares.




The other irony is that _without_ those big coal mines being developed there in the first place, there would in all likelihood only be virgin or government owned bush acreage today, with a few private farms dotted about. 

There would definitely be NO modern infrastructure and NO big town facilities etc. for the "new locals" who have settled in the district over the last 50 years or so to enjoy. Maybe some don't share that sense of irony... 


AJ


----------



## Jonathan111 (2 July 2008)

Why dont SGL target other areas where there is more gas?

QGC has increased its proven and probable (2P) reserves in the Surat Basin in Queensland to 2415 petajoules after final confirmation by independent certifiers Netherland, Sewell & Associates. 

QGC also increased its proved (1P) reserves to 609 PJ and its proved, probable and possible (3P) reserves to 7163 PJ. 

http://www.news.com.au/heraldsun/story/0,21985,23954204-664,00.html


----------



## Aussiejeff (3 July 2008)

sillybilly said:


> Hi all,
> 
> As a shareholder, I'm curious to know what impacts SGL's operations are going to have on the environment. I support enironmentally friendly development.
> 
> ...




Hmmm. One big question is - a Pertamina EP company "senior company official" announced the news. So, what possible point is there to making this totally off-the-wall news release if it is bogus? I take it Pertamina EP isn't a "bogus" company ?

V. Strange I must say. 


AJ


----------



## Col Lector (4 July 2008)

Giday AJ, 
For a "bogus" announcement it sure gained some exposure....global gathering from Google references.....but all have same original source, gathering from similar wording.
Has it leaked at the Indonesian end, or have SGL neglected to release an ann to the ASX? Maybe the changeover of Company Secretary June 23 played a  part?? or it is considered to be premature to ann at present...ie, not significant until Indonesian Govt approval is gained....?

Thought this article interesting....looks like Indo govt very focussed on energy security...



> 06/21/08 03:25
> 
> Energy minister summons 25 oil contractors
> 
> ...


----------



## Aussiejeff (5 July 2008)

Col Lector said:


> Giday AJ,
> For a "bogus" announcement it sure gained some exposure....global gathering from Google references.....but all have same original source, gathering from similar wording.
> Has it leaked at the Indonesian end, or have SGL neglected to release an ann to the ASX? Maybe the changeover of Company Secretary June 23 played a  part?? or it is considered to be premature to ann at present...ie, not significant until Indonesian Govt approval is gained....?
> 
> Thought this article interesting....looks like Indo govt very focussed on energy security...




Hi Col.

From your post this bit .....



> Last week, President Susilo Bambang Yudhoyono and Vice President Jusuf Kalla held a *closed-door meeting with top executives of gas and oil companies*.




Maybe someone had a foot in the door...? Anyway, it's pure speculation until or unless SGL make an *official* announcement.

AJ


----------



## Jonathan111 (10 July 2008)

http://www.sydneygas.com/content.php/66.html
Positions Available:
Programme and Cost Controller for our Hunter Coal Bed Methane Development project. 

The candidate would be based in our Sydney office currently at 1 O'Connell Street. 

The skills needed include:

• Good familiarity with Microsoft Project or other scheduling 
software
• Excel, Word, and other Office products.
• Experience in developing budgets, estimates.
• Experience with cost management system such a Workbench or similar

Qualifications: Tertiary qualifications preferred in quantity surveying or engineering.


----------



## Jonathan111 (11 July 2008)

The preparation of the core hole site at Paynes Crossing is expected to be finished by the end of this week.


----------



## Aussiejeff (12 July 2008)

Jonathan111 said:


> The preparation of the core hole site at Paynes Crossing is expected to be finished by the end of this week.




So, you took up the position Jonathan? LOL

Just as well you can keep us updated with these tidbits, since the company isn't interested in such niceties..... 



AJ


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## Jonathan111 (12 July 2008)

The notice was part of SGL community updates. You can subscribe to them by entering your email into the following web page. 
http://www.sydneygas.com/content.php/12.html


Tri mengemukakan, Pertamina akan menggarap dua wilayah kerja di Sumatera Selatan. Perseroan akan
bermitra dengan Shell dan _Sydney Gas_.

http://els.bappenas.go.id/upload/kliping/pertamina dan vico.pdf


----------



## Aussiejeff (15 July 2008)

"Management of SGL have further advised that based on the current drilling activity, it is
expected that it is unlikely for the targeted additional 500 1P reserves to be proved up by 31
December 2008. Accordingly, it is unlikely that AGL will be required to pay SGL a sum of $51
million under the Asset Sale and Purchase Agreement."

Well, that comes as no surprise. 

Even worse, the independent auditor has also estimated the potential benefit per share to SGL of developing up the estimated Hunter reserves (by 2011) of a mere +20c to +22c per share!! Abysmal... read this lot and weep, holders. 

http://www.asx.com.au/asx/statistics/showAnnouncementPDF.do?idsID=00860297


AJ
(holding some dregs)


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## Aussiejeff (25 July 2008)

See attached July 2008 Hunter Newsletter (can't find it on the website - was e-mailed to me).



AJ


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## Col Lector (4 August 2008)

Well AJ & J.... guess we can take comfort in fact that AJL at least(!) still has enough faith in SGL to purchase another ~7.5 million shares on-market over June & July, incl $500k worth purchased on 1/8/08 @ av~0.34.  Takes them to over 18%....


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## sillybilly (5 August 2008)

Col,

AJL have a huge knowledge advantage over the rest of us. IMO they are privy to not only the initiall drilling results encounted in the Hunter but also the results and progress of other similiar companies.

A few questions:

1) Who is selling?

2) What are AJL's intentions in the short term? With 18% of SGL already they are in position of enormous strength to defeat any takeover offer or to launch their own.

3) Why is no technical data being released to the market? This is one reason why the shareprice is depressed.

The next few months will be very interesting.

Cheers,

Bill


----------



## Jonathan111 (11 August 2008)

http://singleton.yourguide.com.au/news/local/news/general/could-well-lead-way-to-175m/1239338.aspx



Exploration drilling at Glendon began last week. 
Drilling down to a depth of around 900metres.
Core samples are being taken for assessment.

An estimated value of $175 million a year.

The Hunter region’s potential is expected to far exceed the production of the Camden Picton area where Sydney Gas currently has 80 production wells. 

Colin Stace said drilling at the Glendon site would take around eight weeks and a further three to four months before there would be a clear picture of the potential for the site. 

In the Singleton district, three core holes have been completed at Bulga, Howes Valley and Mount Thorley. One hole is nearing completion at Belford and another is being prepared at Maison Dieu. 

Following successful exploration drilling in Broke two test wells are currently operational and if this proves successful a production plant would be considered.


----------



## Jonathan111 (27 November 2008)

Sydney Gas announces 25,000 PJ in the Hunter Valley 
I wonder how the market will take this, if there are any buyers?


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## grace (27 November 2008)

Jonathan111 said:


> Sydney Gas announces 25,000 PJ in the Hunter Valley
> I wonder how the market will take this, if there are any buyers?




I don't own this, but follow because of the link with AJL.

GIP of 25000 PJ.  If they can get it to surface, bingo.

You would think it should be a good day tomorrow for SGL, and AJL.


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## Aussiejeff (28 November 2008)

grace said:


> I don't own this, but follow because of the link with AJL.
> 
> GIP of 25000 PJ.  If they can get it to surface, bingo.
> 
> You would think it should be a good day tomorrow for SGL, and AJL.




Some potentially positive news for a change. 

The big question for me is how are they going to finance these developments - especially given the current financial markets? If through share offerings, what degree of share dilution might result?

Then there are the possible on-going ructions that might ensue from their battle with arch nemesis, the Hunter Bulga Gas Action Group, who will not be impressed with the plans and might step up their media campaigns. Bad press got SGL caned before, so I wouldn't be surprised to see them take that approach again.

Time will tell. 

In 3-5 years we should know if all's well, I guess.


aj


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## sillybilly (28 November 2008)

So.........

Finally some visionary news from a company that in recent times has spent too much time talking about the psat rather than today or tomorrow.

Look's like the share price is not going to move too much until financing arrangements for the "grand plan" are in place. We'll have to be a little more patient. I think AJL have a big role to play in all of this.

To buy or not to buy?

Bill


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## Jonathan111 (29 November 2008)

The www.theherald.com.au is claiming:

"An estimated $10 billion worth of coal-seam methane gas or enough gas to supply Sydney for the next 150 years has been found beneath the Hunter."

http://www.theherald.com.au/news/local/news/general/valleys-10bn-methane-gas-find/1373248.aspx


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## Aussiejeff (29 November 2008)

Jonathan111 said:


> The www.theherald.com.au is claiming:
> 
> "An estimated $10 billion worth of coal-seam methane gas or enough gas to supply Sydney for the next 150 years has been found beneath the Hunter."
> 
> http://www.theherald.com.au/news/local/news/general/valleys-10bn-methane-gas-find/1373248.aspx




SGL should sign the reporter up as Chief Media Officer  Nice bit of propoganda? 

Back to reality, the SP responded briefly to the news then sank back to finish flat for the day. Hardly an inspiring reaction by those that count - investors / shareholders!

What the article totally fails to address is the ACTUAL LIKELY COST of getting to that resource and how SGL/AGL will fund the ongoing development in the short to medium term.

None of us know yet with any certainty, so maybe that's why the SP didn't go anywhere by the end of the day! It's hard to get carried away if the shares are going to be massively diluted in the short term chasing funds, eh? The best possible outlook is obviously for the new / upcoming SIS wells at Camden to flow and produce much better than expected and reap some actual profits more quickly in the nearer term. That sort of scenario might kick things along then.

Cheers,

aj
(still holding a few)


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## Col Lector (30 November 2008)

Superb ann imo...dont be glum aj....mkt shellshocked...a bit slow to react. Ann made even better once a few figures are hypothecised. Do these figures seem feasible??...& a little exciting even...?

SGL have just announced *25000PJ *of GIP for a section of accessible Hunter tenements surveyed….! Have stated that they will progressively prove up & develop in 500PJ Blocks and sell into the NSW market aiming for the JV to supply some 50% of NSW gas demand (!)

AND add LNG via Newcastle!!!!! A big leftfield part of concept yet to be digested …reinforces how much gas they are confident of recovering. These guys (ie,AJL) DO NOT ramp things up!...this wreaks of well-founded confidence

25000 PJ. Huge!... Compare this to Origins or STO gas resources…!

As a long-term follower, I can smell AJL’s understated excitement :  SGL & AGL Energy (AGK) control all the Sydney Basin in 50/50 JV….huge tracts of coal-rich land from Wollongong to Newcastle that AJL are very familiar with.

Is worth chewing A few numerals  re SGL & AJL….

1 Petajoule (PJ) = 1 million Gigajoule
GIP…..Gas-In-Place. Not all recoverable but AJL SIS technology maximizes recovery ….


Valuations for in-ground reserves as demonstrated by recent deals:

Petronas/Santos deal…$4.91/GJ of 2P; or $1.65 of 3P reserves

Origin Energy:….up to $2.12/GJ of 3P

Hence using  $3/GJ of 2P relatively conservative

Gas sales ranges~$4 to $10/GJ.  Aus mkt gas relatively cheap but that expected to change with ETS & gas-fired electricity; & LNG export to higher return Asian markets.

Each of the 500PJ of 2P is worth ~$1.5 billion in the ground once proved up to 2P by drilling; and potentially in excess of  triple this on extraction & marketing (via AGL energy linkages). $10/GJ likely very achievable in future LNG markets.

A conservative 10000PJ recoverable to JV at 40% of GIP over project life at retail revenue of say $5 to10/GJ = $50 to $100 billion  JV project cashflow range. 

& this is potentially achievable on big margins given the big vertical integration advantages of an AJL/AGK/SGL alliance and proximity to Sydney/Newcastle gas mkt.

Financing?.Dont think that should be a major problem....Post Gloucester sale AJL will be cashed up...AJL's contribution via their holding of performance-linked options requires SGL's sp to reach certain (high currently) levels before exercise. Will this be renegotiated or supplemented to encourage AJL's input?  
Alternatively AGL is cashed up or the possibility of a farmin party exists...a major with LNG aspirations maybe ...?

My speculation only...


----------



## Aussiejeff (30 November 2008)

Col Lector said:


> Superb ann imo...dont be glum aj....mkt shellshocked...a bit slow to react. Ann made even better once a few figures are hypothecised. Do these figures seem feasible??...& a little exciting even...?
> 
> SGL have just announced *25000PJ *of GIP for a section of accessible Hunter tenements surveyed….! Have stated that they will progressively prove up & develop in 500PJ Blocks and sell into the NSW market aiming for the JV to supply some 50% of NSW gas demand (!)
> 
> ...




That's the problem as I see it in the short term Col. It's mainly speculation ATM.

IMO it will only be after some "real" and "highly positive" Hunter and Camden SIS well production pilot figures start stacking up that shell-shocked investors will return in any numbers to SGL. More are likely to play it safe in the meantime by investing in AJL and AGK until the definitive 2P reserves (Camden and Hunter) are officially proclaimed? 

I note that the HBGAG media stirrers have been quiet this past weekend following the big announcement. Wonder what campaign they might stir up after this "bombshell"?

Anyway, it's fingers x'ed for future success... the window of opportunity might not be that large with Carbon trading just about to hit the scene. (on that note, I wonder how much Carbon tax CSM producers will have to pay?)


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## Col Lector (30 November 2008)

AJ, the AGM presentation suggests they have been hard at it & are confident of booking the first block of 500PJ 2P in 2010-11; and then in rolling 500PJ blocks.
Each 500PJ proved up & realised can achieve JV revenue at the well-head base-case ($3/GJ) of 1.5 billion as it is sold over say 5 years at 100PJ/yr. That reps a very conservative Hunter revenue to SGL of $150million pa. from 2013 (say); in addition to cash-flow positive Camden gas.  
Success can be multiplied to say 300PJ/yr or more by stacking production of these 500PJ blocks...ie, enough to allow contemplation of LNG scale production.
The wayI see it, this series of anns were major events for SGL, AJL and also AGK. It was a long-gestated release of the new strategy with AJL at the controls....& AGK, & maybe even an oil major in the wings with funds in pocket. 
SGL appears to have past the potential test (& undergone a share register reshuffle) and emerged way undervalued at 0.18/73mill, but with AJL & AGK committed to throwing all resources at Hunter & Camden NSW CSG may come into market focus soon..... 
Holding all three...plus MPO is my diversification strategy.


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## sillybilly (1 December 2008)

Col, I too am somewhat optimistic.

AJ, I’m also a little pessimistic.

The time of talking about the past is over. Andy Lucas must now be held to account for today and tomorrow. He has the technical team in place and is backed by a Board dominated by allies.

The relationship with local landholders remains complex but manageable. Andy appears to be quite conservative. This approach seems to have made it easy for the HBGAG to score points in the public relations battle simply because SGL is relying on results rather than hype to develop a small environmental impact footprint reputation. With results starting to flow SGL will be able to show that its operational activities do not threaten the community and environment. Moving forward, the disruptive nature of the HBGAG will become less significant.

The share price is a big concern. A weak share price restricts fund raising options, threatens the ability of AJL to take up the options that formed part of the deal formulated in January this year and calls into question the conversion of the B&B notes. On the positive side, the share price could move very quickly.

The NSW Government planning and approval process is dreadfully slow. This presents a near term obstacle in the Hunter.

Col, you touched on the AJL divestment of some of its CSG acreage. AJL are in the process of selling its interests in Queensland. The AJL Gloucester acreage is very close to the SGL Hunter acreage. AJL and SGL are very tight. One way for the relationship to become tighter were if the two businesses came together to develop the Gloucester area. AGL would not necessarily be part of this. Food for thought.

The disappearance of QGC could prove to be a big opportunity for SGL. BG’s focus will be on the export LNG market. What chance now of the pipeline from Queensland to the Hunter? Similarly, the disappearance of SHG into BG via its purchase of QGC also strengthens SGL’s grip on the NSW market.

It’s hard to speculate if any more news will be released this calendar year to clear the water. Like everyone, I’m keenly waiting for news about the financing arrangements to make the dream more tangible. It would be a bonus if there was some prospect of accelerating the development programme.

Anyway, I continue to hold lots of SGL. I’m on the sidelines for right now, but seriously contemplating buying more. After nine years as a shareholder, I still consider SGL to be speculative.

The above is my view only.


----------



## Aussiejeff (1 December 2008)

sillybilly said:


> ... It’s hard to speculate if any more news will be released this calendar year to clear the water. Like everyone, *I’m keenly waiting for news about the financing arrangements to make the dream more tangible*. It would be a bonus if there was some prospect of accelerating the development programme ...




Hi sillybilly.

IMO the project financing issue in the short term will be the No.1 factor driving the SP in the near future. With the economy the way it is atm, no-one is going to be confident picking up large parcels of shares NOW if there is going to be a not-so-surprising massive dilution as a result of funding options in the near term.

I totally agree that the sooner they get on top of that issue and clarify how SGL is going to fund it's share of all these massive developments the better! (like others, I'm sitting on the sidelines to see what eventuates - I've got some spare cash waiting for the opportunity).

Fingers, arms, legs & eyes x'ed it works out ok. 


Chiz,

aj


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## Col Lector (1 December 2008)

Sillybilly...nice points. Agree that controlling Gloucester + Hunter + Camden seems complementary & compelling.... I for one would like to see AJL retain some equity in Gloucester
The combination of existing/growing Camden flows; 
an advanced Gloucester project....piped to Hexham with gas sales 2010. 
AND Hunter gas to Hexham from ~2012 is a solid but achievable rampup both in volumes/revenue with plenty of scope beyond that.

A leftfield scenario.....
MPO 30% cashes out of Gloucester to (say) AGK
AJL sells 20% G to AGK
AJL increases stake SGL in return for financing+drilling and eventually consumes it 

This will leave AJL/(SGL) & AGK in an effective 50/50 JV over the entire Gloucester & Sydney Basins; with maximum vertical integration benefits within the JV, & relatively easy access to infrastructure & markets at a prime time...
I tend to the optimistic, see positives for sp's of all 4 players mentioned...but think AJL best positioned to benefit ultimately if they play their cards strategically, and dont get spooked into selling down control too soon.


----------



## Aussiejeff (1 December 2008)

Col Lector said:


> Sillybilly...nice points. Agree that controlling Gloucester + Hunter + Camden seems complementary & compelling.... I for one would like to see AJL retain some equity in Gloucester
> The combination of existing/growing Camden flows;
> an advanced Gloucester project....piped to Hexham with gas sales 2010.
> AND Hunter gas to Hexham from ~2012 is a solid but achievable rampup both in volumes/revenue with plenty of scope beyond that.
> ...




Hi Col.                                                            

I think you should approach Andy for the Director of Strategies job!

Good points...


----------



## Col Lector (1 December 2008)

Having said that....the market evidently doesnt agree with sp down 10% since opening. A concerted seller evident recently but picked up pace this morning. Good pickings...?


----------



## Aussiejeff (1 December 2008)

Col Lector said:


> Having said that....the market evidently doesnt agree with sp down 10% since opening. A concerted seller evident recently but picked up pace this morning. Good pickings...?




Makes you wonder how many shares might still be held and being sold down by dis-gruntled former SGL wheeler-dealers & executives?


----------



## Col Lector (1 December 2008)

Hard to fathom the selling given the recent flow of good news....  looks like a forced offload ....BB?


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## sillybilly (1 December 2008)

Guys,

The trades today we're seeing are quite large. At 11:23am 555000 shares went through. This is not your average "mum and dad" trade.

On and off for the past month or so there has been heavy selling of SGL. Some of it is the result of margin calls. Apparently, one of the SGL directors has been the victim of a margin call.

There must be at least one top 20 shareholder getting out for one reason or another. I don't think it would be B&B - they would have to release an updated significant shareholder statement.

An equally interesting point - who is soaking these shares up?

I'm resisting the temptation to buy more........for now.

Bill


----------



## Aussiejeff (1 December 2008)

sillybilly said:


> Guys,
> 
> The trades today we're seeing are quite large. At 11:23am 555000 shares went through. This is not your average "mum and dad" trade.
> 
> ...




Seems like waiting it out is the go. 

Down 2c already.


----------



## Jonathan111 (11 December 2008)

bad day for buying today (or good?)   

there was a large sale yesteday 5 million shares

_Achievement of SGL’s target of JV 1000 PJ in 2012 implies a minimum share price uplift for SGL to ~$1.85/share _  (page 18 of investor updte)


_
Asia CBM Forum 2009 Hear from an Expert Panel of Speakers, including: Andrew Lukas Chief Executive Officer SYDNEY GAS LTD 23, 24, 25 February 2009  REGISTER BY 12 DEC AND RECEIVE 15% OFF!_ http://www.alleventsgroup.com/cbm/cbm.pdf


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## Aussiejeff (11 December 2008)

Up to 20c last time I checked - almost 2 million shares traded today.

If it closes at 20c or higher, might even start to head north for a bit. Pure guesswork atm with this one given atrocious past management. When shareholders have been badly bitten and scarred, it takes a LOT to convince otherwise.... all the *signs* are looking positive. Have to see over the next few months whether it is a sustained bounce.

Still holding. Like Rip Van Winkle..... 


aj


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## sillybilly (12 December 2008)

Hopefully, the large cross trade on Wednesday signalled the end of the selling that has contributed to the depressed share price since November. There has been a marked improvement in the buying depth. Mind you, his has happened before..........many times.

I'll be surprised, but not disappointed, if any significant news comes out before the end of January. Just my opinion.

Fingers crossed.

Bill


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## Jonathan111 (14 December 2008)

I found the attached chart on the net, not sure who published it, but here it is.

A few questions

1. How do you know the directors were margin called? 

It is often said in the industry that 1P (Proved) Reserves can be borrowed against, 2P (Proved and Probable) Reserves can be contracted and 3P (Proved, Probable and Possible) Reserves are an indicator of future potential.
http://www.qgc.com.au/01_cms/details.asp?ID=74

Sydney Gas announced it had defined 25,000 petajoules of gas in place in its exploration areas within New South Wales’ Hunter Valley......
.....Mr Lukas said Sydney gas had already conducted significant drilling in the region to *prove* the resource (ASX AND MEDIA RELEASE 27 November 2008)

2. What type of reserve  is the 25000PJ? (7P,3P,?)

3. Is it reasonable to expect to extract only one third of this 25000PJ? or are sgl over/underestimating? (refer page 10 of investor update dec 08)

4. There seems to be way more gas in reserves than NSW needs. Is there really a market for this gas else where? Isnt the gas a bit more pricey than other forms of power?

It seems possible that AJL may meet their performance targets which are linked to their options exercised in 1.5 or 2.5 years upon Sydney Gas achieving an increase in 2P reserves by at least 75PJ and 150PJ respectively and an increase in the share price to at least 60c and 75c. Looking at their asx release SGL plan to have 70PJ (2p) by end of 09 and 200 PJ by mid 2010. (investor update dec 08).

Still speculative but getting closer.


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## Aussiejeff (15 December 2008)

Jonathan111 said:


> I found the attached chart on the net, not sure who published it, but here it is.... Still speculative but getting closer.




Closer to ... bankruptcy? 

That is one horrible looking graph, Jonathan. I didn't need to see how poorly the SP has been performing - again! 

Still clutching some remaining SGL "fortune" cookies. LOL

Have a Merry Xmas, mate!


aj


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## Jonathan111 (15 December 2008)

Stocks bought cheaply may become great outperformers when the market reappraises their worth, because not only do they recover to the old point, but they may go much further in line with the growth the company has experienced in the interim. If the stock is bought at 40% below (20c)intrinsic value(underlying perception of its true value 32-34c), and intrinsic value increases by 10% over the next couple of years, the stock will need to rise 65% just to fairly price the security. Typically though the market will over-react from time to time and overprice the security by a 10% premium to intrinsic value, meaning that the stock will actually rise 80% (36cents).

Why would they leave all that gas in the ground? I think they have been oversold and can easily raise the funds to prove up the reserves and start production..

i hold and am buying under 20c.


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## Aussiejeff (18 December 2008)

Jonathan111 said:


> Stocks bought cheaply may become great outperformers when the market reappraises their worth, because not only do they recover to the old point, but they may go much further in line with the growth the company has experienced in the interim. If the stock is bought at 40% below (20c)intrinsic value(underlying perception of its true value 32-34c), and intrinsic value increases by 10% over the next couple of years, the stock will need to rise 65% just to fairly price the security. Typically though the market will over-react from time to time and overprice the security by a 10% premium to intrinsic value, meaning that the stock will actually rise 80% (36cents).
> 
> Why would they leave all that gas in the ground? I think they have been oversold and can easily raise the funds to prove up the reserves and start production..
> 
> i hold and *am buying under 20c*.




No longer 

22.5c today.

Well, I'll be. A whiff of life about the old girl - SP now up +45% since 02 Dec. Not bad considering the general state of the market (mind you, it is likely waaay undervalue if those reserves pan out in the future).

Holding...


----------



## phong_01 (20 December 2008)

does anyone have any ideas about the recent run in share price?  also look at the trading volume, it's not the normal trading volume of SGL?


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## Aussiejeff (20 December 2008)

phong_01 said:


> does anyone have any ideas about the recent run in share price?  also look at the trading volume, it's not the normal trading volume of SGL?




Well, maybe it all comes down to the fact that the current management has actually lasted a few months and finally given an air of stability to the company. Allied to that the potential for some mega earnings IF their projected findings and development processes actually come to fruition without any major hiccups.

In other words, a faint air of optimism for SGL after years of total mis-management, gloom & doom? Increasing volumes might actually become the norm in the future?


aj


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## Jonathan111 (22 December 2008)

Aussiejeff said:


> In other words, a *faint air *of optimism for SGL after years of total mis-management, gloom & doom?
> 
> aj






Previous management had more gas coming out of their ringers than the wells.

A good day for SGL, reached 28c.. I think its still cheap from a long/medium term perspective..(as long as they prove up their wells)

I hold and want more..


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## Aussiejeff (22 December 2008)

Jonathan111 said:


> Previous management had more gas coming out of their ringers than the wells.
> 
> A good day for SGL, reached 28c.. I think its still cheap from a long/medium term perspective..(as long as they prove up their wells)
> 
> I hold and want more..




Yup. Definitely a positive sign today (for AJL too) when many other energy stocks took a bit of a battering.

:santa:


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## Col Lector (22 December 2008)

Giday Aj,Jonathan,sillyb...Mmmm some Christmas cheer...19%+
s worth!. Not a bad day for the suffering faithful...4 consecutive up days. 27.5 cents a better number than the 15c December trough imo

The AOE/PES takeover (trading halt today) of scrip/$ values PES at >$600mill. Imo has to add further ++ve impetus to the AJL/SGL story given that PES has big acreage,  but is a relative late-comer to proving up reserves...
Today's close of 0.275 values SGL at ~$110mill only which suggests "some" upside... 
I also hold and ardently desire more..


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## Jimminy (23 December 2008)

gee we didn't have to wait long for the next CSM takeover.....!!

SGL in trading halt. Not too sure who it is yet. But no surprises, ESG now firms even more as t/o material.

As Bill Lawry says - "it's all happening here"!!


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## sillybilly (23 December 2008)

Well, well............

Takeover bid for SGL to be announced in the coming days. I assume AJL is the other party. Both are due to exit trading halts next Monday.

Bill


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## sillybilly (23 December 2008)

I missed AGL being in a trading halt also.

Intriguing......

I just hope that the offer is reasonable. Upon reflection, the AGL/SGL joint venture signed in 2005 was totally unreasonable.

Bill


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## sillybilly (23 December 2008)

AJL are coming out of the trading halt before the start of trading on Wednesday.

I wonder what Santa has for SGL?

Bill


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## Aussiejeff (23 December 2008)

sillybilly said:


> AJL are coming out of the trading halt before the start of trading on Wednesday.
> 
> I wonder what Santa has for SGL?
> 
> Bill




Hopefully a luverrly big bunch of sweet, ripe, bananas  - rather than a bag of stale, shriveled, peanuts! :bananasmi


chiz,


aj


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## Jonathan111 (23 December 2008)

I see there is an eighth page now..

_AGL, having sold its stake in Queensland Gas Company to BG Group for $1.2 billion and its oil and gas interest in Papua New Guinea for $1.1 billion this year is well placed for expansion. 

...the spate of coal seam gas transactions – including Arrow Energy’s $551 million bid for Pure Energy this week – says that market prices aren’t much of a guide to takeover values in the sector. Arrow offered about $5.40 a share for Pure when the target’s shares had been trading at less than $1 only about six weeks ago. _

http://www.businessspectator.com.au/bs.nsf/Article/AGL-moves-into-position-$pd20081223-ML3LW?OpenDocument&src=sph


$1, $2 How much is it worth?


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## Jonathan111 (23 December 2008)

sillybilly said:


> I wonder what Santa has for SGL?
> Bill




It started in Holland. When a child was bad they got a lump of coal, but if they were good they got a small toy, cookies or candy. :


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## Jonathan111 (24 December 2008)

I would knock it back if this source is true.


_It is understood AGL will offer Sydney Gas shareholders close to 40c a share_
Clancy Yeates
December 23, 2008 
http://business.brisbanetimes.com.au/business/agl-set-to-burst-at-the-seams-20081223-749u.html


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## Aussiejeff (24 December 2008)

Jonathan111 said:


> I would knock it back if this source is true.
> 
> 
> _It is understood AGL will offer Sydney Gas shareholders close to 40c a share_
> ...




The last knockback almost destroyed the company. Maybe the bad taste left by that experience will convince enough holders to sell out at almost ANY offered price above the current SP. Personally, I'm sorely tempted if it IS only a measly 40c, even though that price grossly undervalues the reported GIP resource estimates. 

Let's face it - the "SGL" trademark has become so irretrievably tarnished it is probably inevitable it has to be extinguished for eternity, so some significant development of that massive GIP can move ahead. 

If SGL do happen to get swallowed up by an AGL cash only offer, I'd likely re-invest the funds in a mix of AJL / AGL shares. I look at it this way - 40c is better than that frightening 15.5c a couple of weeks back!! 

I'm waiting with a badly baited breath ...


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## Col Lector (24 December 2008)

Well guys...42.5 cents....cash on-market....valuing SGL at ~170mill. Underwhelming imo.....an initial low-ball bid supported by SGL/AJL "in the absence of a superior proposal"...
Lowball bid particularly given the strategic nature of the asset & the 25000PJ GIP recently delineated for a portion only of Hunter tenements...
Market action today may indicate if other CSG players/majors will see this as too much a bargain??.


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## sillybilly (24 December 2008)

$0.425.

Simply not good enough.

AGL will not be getting my shares voluntarily.

The market reaction will tell the story.

Bill


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## Col Lector (24 December 2008)

So what happens to AJL's options over the further 10% in the event of AGK takeover...
OR if SGL price spikes to above the option trigger level......? 
Dont have time to check it out....but surely wouldnt be a bad result for either AJL or BNB if the price went on a run..


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## Aussiejeff (24 December 2008)

42.5c it is atm

Course of sales - 

11:25:45 AM	0.425	20,000	      8,500.00	 
11:24:53 AM	0.425	100,000	    42,500.00	 
11:24:27 AM	0.425	150,000	    63,750.00	 
11:24:10 AM	0.425	32,916	    13,989.30	 
11:23:36 AM	0.425	4,000	              1,700.00	 
11:23:15 AM	0.425	30,000	    12,750.00	 
11:22:25 AM	0.425	32,000	    13,600.00	 
11:22:19 AM	0.425	40,000	    17,000.00	 
11:22:06 AM	0.425	40,000	    17,000.00	 
11:21:06 AM	0.425	25,000	    10,625.00	 
11:20:24 AM	0.430	4,600	              1,978.00	 
11:20:21 AM	0.425	3,300	              1,402.50	 
11:20:16 AM	0.425	7,790	              3,310.75	 
11:19:50 AM	0.425	88,000	    37,400.00	 
11:19:23 AM	0.425	3,375,000	1,434,375.00	 
11:18:49 AM	0.425	2,500	              1,062.50	 
11:17:19 AM	0.425	6,500	              2,762.50	 
11:17:03 AM	0.425	50,000	    21,250.00	 
11:16:21 AM	0.430	10,000	      4,300.00	 
11:15:54 AM	0.425	50,000	    21,250.00	 

Apart from that one big trade, not much enthusiasm so far? I'll wait and see what other sharks might be circling.


aj


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## Jonathan111 (24 December 2008)

I hold for now, a better offer might come along.
AGL are greedy and opportunistic with their hostile offer..

ATM 20.5 millions shares sold by sell out loosers, another 302 million to go..


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## sillybilly (24 December 2008)

Guys,

The offer is not hostile. It is opportunistic. The SGL Board has accepted the offer.

How convenient that there are presently no independent directors. How convenient that the chairman is the CEO of AJL. So on and so on.

BNB must be desperate for money. Nice one year return for AJL.

I know it sounds like sour grapes.

Bill


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## Aussiejeff (24 December 2008)

Jonathan111 said:


> I hold for now, a better offer might come along.
> AGL are greedy and opportunistic with their hostile offer..
> 
> ATM 20.5 millions shares sold by sell out loosers, another 302 million to go..




By close of trading "only" approx. 25.5 million shares sold + notification that AGK at open had the holdings that AJL & BNB previously had (79 million shares or 19.8%). So I take it they now have around 105 million shares (or 26%) of SGL's ordinary 402,543,433 shares. This makes them major shareholders as of now, for sure, but they need >90% to effect the full takeover - a long way to go yet.

I wonder what the situation would be for SGL if they can't get to 50%? As majority shareholder and majority board members, wouldn't they have to run the company in the best interests of the remaining shareholders? Would that be a better result?

I'm not sure how a "limbo" result between 50%-90% would pan out either? Any ideas on whether SGL would still be viable?

Sitting tight for now.


aj


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## Jonathan111 (26 December 2008)

Aussiejeff said:


> Sitting tight for now.
> 
> 
> aj





Everyone is now realising how much of a bargin 42.5c is... "*country kilometres shy of recent valuations *"... check out the link below 

"The art of bargain hunting"
http://www.theaustralian.news.com.au/business/story/0,28124,24842285-30538,00.html

"*Sydney Gas could justify a price nearer $280 million.* " 

I hold


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## sillybilly (31 December 2008)

AGL have picked up 30% of SGL so far. Looks like they are going to pick up at least 3% at the open. Today being the end of the month and the end of the quarter could mean, despite a shortened trading day, plenty of activity.

IMO AGL will be successful with their takeover. Let's face it, AGL already owned 50% of the resource before they launced their bid. I see no chance of a competing bid.

Most of the shares in the "sell" column are at $0.52. Hopefully, this ends up being closer to the final price.

Still holding......nervously.

Bill


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## sillybilly (2 January 2009)

At the time of this post AGL now own a little over 50% of SGL. The chance of an improved offer seems to be dwindling.

The end is near.............but I'm still holding.

Bill


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## Jonathan111 (2 January 2009)

sillybilly said:


> Most of the shares in the "sell" column are at $0.52.
> 
> Bill






sillybilly said:


> At the time of this post AGL now own a little over 50% of SGL. The chance of an improved offer seems to be dwindling.
> 
> The end is near.............but I'm still holding.
> 
> Bill




More than 50%  another disa-ponting sign ... half of the sellers at 52 cents have buckled under the pressure... I wonder what triggered them off.. I am not pleased with their lack of discipline.. 

still holding..


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## Aussiejeff (2 January 2009)

Jonathan111 said:


> More than 50%  another disa-ponting sign ... half of the sellers at 52 cents have buckled under the pressure... I wonder what triggered them off.. I am not pleased with their lack of discipline..
> 
> still holding..




Me 3.

There's something almost perverse about sitting here on my puny 230,000 holding while all these big wimps bail out.

LOL

There is still a long way to go for AGL to achieve 90%. All the eager big sellers must start to tail off soon. If they get to say, 75% and the big sellers dry up, leaving just us little fish, what then?  Will they start buying at 43c+?

Hmmm.


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## sillybilly (3 January 2009)

I think it's just a case of people having had enough of SGL. I've held shares since 1999. I know I've had more than enough but am disappointed with the end result.

There is a big question for all of us. How badly does AGL want to acquire all of the shares? With more than 50% of the shares already safely in the "bank" increasing the offer to $0.52 would cost AGL $20M. Is this too much? I doubt there will be an improved offer this month. The Bidder's statement nor the Target's statement have been lodged yet. On the other hand, the risk is AGL walking away with, for example, 75% at the end of the offer period without increasing their bid.

There haven't been any notices to suggest that the directors have sold. None of them have large parcels. Selling by the directors could be the trigger to force my hand.

Have you guys put your shares in the "sell" column yet? I have not.

Bill


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## Jonathan111 (5 January 2009)

sillybilly said:


> Have you guys put your shares in the "sell" column yet? I have not.
> 
> Bill




Not yet. 



Aussiejeff said:


> Me 3.
> 
> There's something almost perverse about sitting here on my puny 230,000 holding while all these big wimps bail out.
> 
> LOL




I have a smaller parcel of shares.



Aussiejeff said:


> There is still a long way to go for AGL to achieve 90%. All the eager big sellers must start to tail off soon. If they get to say, 75% and the big sellers dry up, leaving just us little fish, what then?  Will they start buying at 43c+?
> 
> Hmmm.




I think they mention that they may apply to the ASX to have SGL delisted and not pay any dividends.


----------



## Aussiejeff (5 January 2009)

Jonathan111 said:


> I think they mention that they may apply to the ASX to have SGL delisted and not pay any dividends.




Not sure how the limbo-land thing works as far as ASX goes (ie hold shares >50% but <90%). Anyone know of precedents here?

SGL doesn't pay dividends anyway.

No exact dates for acceptances yet?


aj


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## sillybilly (5 January 2009)

Guys,

Here is my speculation........

If AGL don't get to 90% acceptance the share price will tank. In addition, for SGL to continue as a going concern it will quickly have to raise new capital. How will they do this? Life could become very difficult for the retail share holder.

Interestingly, 1M shares were purchased this morning at $0.43. Also, no substantial holders notice yet for today.

Still holding.

Bill


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## Aussiejeff (5 January 2009)

From AGL's takeover share acceptance offer documentation with respect to >50% but <90% control under the heading ASX Listing: 



> * AGL will maintain the listing of SGL on the ASX as long as SGL meets the requirements of the Listing Rules for maintaining a listing, including there being a sufficient spread of SGL Shareholders*.
> 
> Depending on the level of acceptances to the Offer, it is possible that ASX may seek to delist SGL if, in ASX's opinion, there is an insufficient spread of shareholdings to ensure an orderly and liquid market in SGL securities. If ASX proposes to delist SGL on this basis AGL's current intention is that it would not oppose this delisting.





and also under the following heading of Limitations On Intentions:



> * If at the conclusion of the Offer SGL is a controlled entitiy but is not a wholly owned subsidiary of AGL there will be minority SGL Shareholders. In this event AGL expects that the directors appointed by it will act at all times in accordance with their fiduciary duties and intends that all requisite shareholder approvals and other requirements of law including, the Corporations Act and ASX Listing Rules, are complied with in pursuing any of the intentions which are referred to above*.
> 
> As a result of these requirements the approval of minority SGL Shareholders may be required for the implementation of any of the intentions outlined above. The requirement for SGL directors to have regard to their fiduciary duties in the context of a partly owned subsidiary and the possible requirement to seek approval of SGL minority shareholders may prevent a particular intention from being achieved.




So, it appears that the ASX has to initiate any de-listing based primarily it would seem on whether there are enough independent minority shareholders left after AGL has purchased as much as it can.

IMO the wording by AGL is certainly meant to "scare" minority holders into caving in. Especially the last paragraph that seeks to paint minority holders as potentially obstructionist to their "intentions"!

In any case, I have no intention of forking out around a grand in brokerage fees to Commsuck through selling on the ASX. If I eventually decide to sell to AGL it will be after they have formally set the deadline and through the offer documentation (no settlement fees). May as well wait until compulsory acquisition is inevitable.



aj


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## Col Lector (6 January 2009)

Still holding my full parcel...
Dissappointed that AJL rolled over so early, but if another party places a higher bid then I gather that will supercede AGK's .425 and keep SGL in play.....
Given that AGK has snared both Gloucester & SGL for a song, is surprising to see AGK sp on downward drift. I also hold AGK and can see value there...


----------



## sillybilly (6 January 2009)

Hi guys,

I sold half of my holding late yesterday.

I'm still sitting on several hundred thousand.......

I still see no chance of a rival bid. AGL own half of SGL now. A small chance of AGL increasing its offer.

Hard to explain the actions of AJL and BNB in accepting what seems to be a low offer.

Good luck to everyone still holding.

Bill


----------



## Col Lector (6 January 2009)

SB, the way I read it, AGK own 139mill SGL as at 6/1/09 and have 79 mill shares pledged ( by BNB & AJL) that will be theirs only in the event a higher bid does not emerge. (See substantial holding notice detail 24/12/08). Therefore they are yet to own 50% outright....ie, <30% if a higher bid is pitched by another party. Purposely ambiguous imo....


----------



## sillybilly (6 January 2009)

Col,

I think you may be right for two reasons:

1) AJL/BNB have not issued a change in substantial holding notice.

2) One of the annoucements released 24/12/08 is partially titled "Lending Agreement".

I'm a little surprised that AGL did not make more out of gaining 50% acceptance.

Still, I have no regrets about my move yesterday. I'm guilty of having invested too much emotional capital in SGL. Time to move on a little.

Bill


----------



## Aussiejeff (6 January 2009)

I note there have been 23 trades @ 43 cents so far today. Each trade is only for between 550-570 shares at a time. Given brokerage would have to be paid each time, any idea why?

Very thin trading today. Less than 3 mill so far.


aj


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## Aussiejeff (13 January 2009)

AGL only managed abt 700,000 SGL shares from sellers today. Very slow. They started day at theoretical 61% - a long way short of 90% needed and few on-market sellers left? Funny. Yesterday almost all the trades went through at 43 cents - a .5 cent premium by AGL?

They might have to step up the price to 43 cents or better to get their desired 90%+ numbers within the remaining 3 or so weeks?

Still holding till then.

aj


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## Dangerous (14 January 2009)

I have been told that SGL only had 41PJ of 2P reserves.  Is this correct?

I have serious doubts about AGL if this is the case.  At the same time, it would mean ESG is under valued in a big way.


----------



## Aussiejeff (15 January 2009)

On an interesting side note, it seems BG Group (buyout of QGC) have canned their plan for a gas-fired power station in the Hunter valley.

Wonder how that now affects AGL/SGL?


----------



## sillybilly (15 January 2009)

Aussiejeff said:


> On an interesting side note, it seems BG Group (buyout of QGC) have canned their plan for a gas-fired power station in the Hunter valley.
> 
> Wonder how that now affects AGL/SGL?




The moment BG launced their bid for QGC the "proposed" pipeline from Queensland to the Hunter Valley and a subsequent power station were scuttled. This presented an opportunity for SGL which they went on to present publicly via the grand plan they announced in Nov 08. So IMO the news that there is not going to be a BC sponsored pipeline and power station in the Hunter means nothing for the AGL/SGL tie up. Doesn't detract from the fact that AGL are picking SGL up for a song.

Fingers crossed for an improved offer from AGL for SGL before the end of the month.

No pipeline might mean something more to ESG.

Still holding plenty....

Bill


----------



## joeyjoejoe (15 January 2009)

sillybilly said:


> The moment BG launced their bid for QGC the "proposed" pipeline from Queensland to the Hunter Valley and a subsequent power station were scuttled. This presented an opportunity for SGL which they went on to present publicly via the grand plan they announced in Nov 08. So IMO the news that there is not going to be a BC sponsored pipeline and power station in the Hunter means nothing for the AGL/SGL tie up. Doesn't detract from the fact that AGL are picking SGL up for a song.
> 
> Fingers crossed for an improved offer from AGL for SGL before the end of the month.
> 
> ...





I hold ESG.. im guessing by the comment here and the % drop today it spells some bad news??? ????????


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## sillybilly (19 January 2009)

Here's a piece from Bloomberg. Maybe the Queensland - Hunter pipeline is not dead after all but the estimated cost of $850M would have to classify the patient as "critical". Again, just my opinion.

Bill

Queensland Hunter’s A$850 Million Gas Line to Proceed (Update1) 

By Angela Macdonald-Smith

Jan. 16 (Bloomberg) -- Queensland Hunter Gas Pipeline, a closely held venture in Australia, said it will proceed with a A$850 million ($566 million) project even after BG Group Plc scrapped a planned power plant that was to use the line. 

The venture is talking to a number of potential alternative customers and is confident of securing contracts in advance of the planned start of construction in 2010, allowing supplies to begin in 2011, Queensland Hunter said today. 

BG, which has bought Australia’s Queensland Gas Co., said yesterday it canceled the company’s plan to build the A$750 million Hunter project in New South Wales state because it was uneconomic. The plant would have used about one-third of the capacity of the line, which will run from south Queensland to Newcastle, providing the Sydney region’s third major gas supply. 

“Although BG’s decision is disappointing, there is a lot of support for the pipeline,” Bob Otjen, general manager of Queensland Hunter Gas Pipeline, said in the e-mailed statement. 

The proposed 830-kilometer (516-mile) underground pipeline will have the capacity to transport 85 petajoules (80 billion cubic feet) a year of coal-seam gas from Wallumbilla in Queensland to Newcastle, the second-biggest city in New South Wales. 

To contact the reporter on this story: Angela Macdonald-Smith in Sydney at amacdonaldsm@bloomberg.net 

Last Updated: January 15, 2009 20:35 EST


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## Jonathan111 (21 January 2009)

117,584,772 shares sold today?  

A dispointing end to the sgl saga. I guess AGK can fight the hobag battles from now on.

Thanks to all of those who contributed with their time and posts on sgl.


----------



## Aussiejeff (22 January 2009)

Jonathan111 said:


> 117,584,772 shares sold today?
> 
> A dispointing end to the sgl saga. I guess AGK can fight the hobag battles from now on.
> 
> Thanks to all of those who contributed with their time and posts on sgl.




Yep. A dead duck sold for a song. I think AGK had this planned from a long time ago. They downplayed anything to do with SGL (barely rated a mention in any AGK company announcements or plans) pretty much from the moment they got the 50/50 JV. That made me a tad suspicious right from then as to what SGL's "future" might be, but I foolishly lived in hope.

Then we had the fake AJL "buy in" which was just a smokescreen for what was to eventuate. Funny how Andy Lukas talked up SGL prospects BEFORE AGK's hostile takeover, then pi$$ed all over it's prospects AFTER they did their backroom deal!! LOL

So, if SGL's drilling & production prospects are SO dodgy that it just HAS to sell out to AGK, what does that mean for AGK & AJL's carve up of the tenements now? Or was that just a load of B$ thrown at lowly shareholders to frighten them into accepting AGK's kind offer? 

Think I'll park the cash from AGK's "offer" for my remaining SGL shares into the bank for now and see what eventuates down the track a bit.

R.I.Pieces, SGL

PS: I reckon HBGAG will need to raise a bit more legal fighting funds if they are going to take on AGK! Or was HBGAG secretly funded by AGK to help sink SGL? LOL


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## sillybilly (23 January 2009)

Only a slim chance of an improved offer from AGL.

The Target's Statement made for dismal reading. It could be said that AGL has saved the shareholders of SGL from a very uncertain future. I guess we will never know.

Bill


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## Aussiejeff (23 January 2009)

sillybilly said:


> Only a slim chance of an improved offer from AGL.
> 
> The Target's Statement made for dismal reading. It could be said that AGL has saved the shareholders of SGL from a very uncertain future. I guess we will never know.
> 
> Bill




AGL aka AGK "saving" SGL from an uncertain future? Why is the Traget Statement about the prospects SO negative?

Hmmm. I know the smell of a rat when I sniff it. I smell rats now and have done for a while now. Pretty much ever since AGL / AGK took a 50% interest. 

Seen it before. 

(Step 1) Get effective control of an ailing company that has great assets, then effectively choke it's operations and allow the SP to collapse so low that they can then make a predatory takeover "offer" (more like legalised blackmail) for a song. 

(Step 2) Scare the living daylights out of small shareholders with an appalling summary of the company's future if the "takeover" fails.

(Step 3) Once the ailing takeover target (in this case SGL) has been consumed, release "new" data that miraculously shows how fantastic and profitable the previously appalling resource REALLY is and consequently bump up the predator company's SP (AGK) by heaps. 

I would be very surprised if this scenario doesn't play out over the coming weeks & months post-annihilation of SGL. 

AGK management must be having champagne breakfast, lunches & teas every day now.

Might be worth keeping some chips to invest in AGK after the demolition smoke has cleared and the dodgy target statement production guesstimates have miraculously been "re-assessed" in AGK's favour.


aj


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## Jonathan111 (28 January 2009)

AGL only have 79%, dont they need 90% to complete a forced takeover..

It will be interesting to see what happens if they cant get 90%..


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## Aussiejeff (30 January 2009)

AGK now have 80.85% with around a fortnight to run before the acceptance date. If they are still a few % shy by then, I believe they will simply extend the offer for another fortnight to finish it off.

IMO, SGL = Dodo


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