# Boom to Bust



## krisbarry (5 February 2008)

Hot off the press ACA and Today tonight have finally stopped ramping the housing market and are now very bearish

Remember the hundreds and thousands of hum-drum stories over the past 3years about how anybody could be a multi-millionare and buy 10 properties, lets not stop at 10, lets go 20 properties....yes we could all do it following the 10 simple steps etc

Well blah, blah, blah!

Now tonight, we have the complete opposite...sell your properties, rent do anything just to keep your head above water.  Hell lets even sell the family car and your grandparents set of dentures just to keep up with loan repayments.

How the mighty are falling...boor bastards.  I show No sympathy towards these people, as nobody care less about the millions of young people who have been robbed of home ownership by the greedy few out there, and you know who you are!


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## insider (5 February 2008)

Stop_the_clock said:


> Hot off the press ACA and Today tonight have finally stopped ramping the housing market and are now very bearish
> 
> Remember the hundreds and thousands of hum-drum stories over the past 3years about how anybody could be a multi-millionare and buy 10 properties, lets not stop at 10, lets go 20 properties....yes we could all do it following the 10 simple steps etc
> 
> ...




Well its a about time... I hate people educating me about investing with poor and unwanted advice, telling me you don't lose money on property... bullocks!!!!


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## krisbarry (5 February 2008)

On a personal note come July 1st, I will be starting up a new house deposit fund, accounced under the Labour Government.

And I also predict that withIN 4 years time house prices will have dropped 40% from their peeks...its all a matter of timing, and the high interest rates we are seeing today are just the about ready to pop-the-crap out of this housing market.

I AM SUCH A PROPERTY BEAR, AND i LOVE IT

ANYBODY ELSE CARE TO JOIN THE BEAR PROPERTY FORUM, COME ON YOU KNOW YOU WANT TO :


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## robots (5 February 2008)

hello,

I am going to open up one of those accounts too for my girlfriend, bang 5k in and of we go,

thanks ruddie, top start, free money

thankyou

robots


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## nioka (5 February 2008)

Stop_the_clock said:


> How the mighty are falling...boor bastards.  I show No sympathy towards these people, as nobody care less about the millions of young people who have been robbed of home ownership by the greedy few out there, and you know who you are!



 Spare a thought for those who won't find a home to rent because those "greedy b's" won't buy one for them to rent. ????? Cuts both ways.


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## tech/a (5 February 2008)

And then there are those of us who actually took part in the boom and some who took part in past booms.All geared at around 35% or less who couldn't give a rats about interest rates,or 20%(Or whatever decline you wish to guess) decline in our property values.
Some have increased in value 300% so a 30% or 40% decline---who cares.

We actually did something and didn't sit back whinging about how expensive it was/is.

The stock markets lost 16% over the past few months.
So everyone who's invested in Stocks are crazy as well I suppose!

So 2 yrs ago Kris you were waiting for housing to drop so you could buy. 20% I do believe.What happened?
(1) Housing in Adelaide has risen 30% since then in some parts.
(2) 4 yrs and it will drop 40%---well that would be the first time in history.

(1) has happened.
(2) two's a wishful guess.

You know most will NEVER pull the trigger.To much fear.Many are crippled by fear.

$300 or more a week on rent--yep good thinking.
No tax deductions,no security.

*Watch what a good dose of INFLATION will do to your prediction.Watch what it will do to your rent.*

Go buy a ladder you'll need it to get out of the ever increasing hole.

Want to see something *REALLY SCARY*.
Then read this makes sub prime look like kindi!

http://www.cornerstoneri.com/comments/TrillionDollarSecret.htm


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## Shane Baker (5 February 2008)

Stop_the_clock said:


> Now tonight, we have the complete opposite...sell your properties, rent do anything just to keep your head above water.  Hell lets even sell the family car and your grandparents set of dentures just to keep up with loan repayments.




Given their usual accuracy it might be suggested as a good time to buy


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## xoa (5 February 2008)

Well that's no revelation. A boom is always followed by a bust, though the real estate agents might not admit it. 

I'm happy to hear about the latest rate rise, hope there are many more.


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## wayneL (5 February 2008)

nioka said:


> Spare a thought for those who won't find a home to rent because those "greedy b's" won't buy one for them to rent. ????? Cuts both ways.



Exactly!

Wrong villain. Folks are only responding to market conditions largely because of the influence of social proof... and there was lots of money to be made for all except those who "panic bought" too late.

The villains are the western CBs and subsequently lending institutions who flooded the joint with cheap and easy credit via dodgy derivatives.

I'm a property bear, but I think it's a bit pathological to delight in the prospect of a crash. Lot's of nice hard working people just trying to house their families will be financially and emotionally devastated. 

That is NOT a prospect to celebrate.


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## wayneL (5 February 2008)

tech/a said:


> And then there are those of us who actually took part in the boom and some who took part in past booms.All geared at around 35% or less who couldn't give a rats about interest rates,or 20%(Or whatever decline you wish to guess) decline in our property values.
> Some have increased in value 300% so a 30% or 40% decline---who cares.
> 
> We actually did something and didn't sit back whinging about how expensive it was/is.
> ...




Kudos tech if that's what you're looking for. But regarding the trillion dollar secret: I'll let you in on another secret - It ain't no secret.

Bears have been banging on about the derivative monster for quite some time. In fact sub-prime and the derivative monster are two sides of the same coin. Sub-prime is merely the face Joe SixPack sees in everyday life.

Cheers


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## marklar (5 February 2008)

Stop_the_clock said:


> Hot off the press ACA and Today tonight have finally stopped ramping the housing market and are now very bearish





> Now tonight, we have the complete opposite...sell your properties, rent do anything just to keep your head above water.  Hell lets even sell the family car and your grandparents set of dentures just to keep up with loan repayments.



I've lived in my current apartment for just over 3 months now, I remember seeing the "invest in property, you can't go wrong" stuff from ACA/TT sometime within that period, so I had a hearty chuckle tonight at this story.



Stop_the_clock said:


> I AM SUCH A PROPERTY BEAR, AND i LOVE IT
> 
> ANYBODY ELSE CARE TO JOIN THE BEAR PROPERTY FORUM, COME ON YOU KNOW YOU WANT TO :



Love to STC, and thanks for asking... I'm feeling underdone when it comes to property (one apartment, no dirt, no LPTs anymore).

Listening to FoxFM at 4pm today the lead news article was a quote from some expert saying "you have to ring your bank manager tomorrow and fix your loan" ...hmm... thanks for the advice sweetheart, but I don't remember asking for it.

m.


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## 2BAD4U (5 February 2008)

tech/a said:


> And then there are those of us who actually took part in the boom and some who took part in past booms.All geared at around 35% or less who couldn't give a rats about interest rates,or 20%(Or whatever decline you wish to guess) decline in our property values.
> Some have increased in value 300% so a 30% or 40% decline---who cares.
> 
> We actually did something and didn't sit back whinging about how expensive it was/is....



tech/a can I buy you a beer? :alcohol: :bier: Couldn't have put it better.

Geez, it's the first time anyone's had to put up with high interest rates, when housing was unaffordable, when you just didn't know how to make ends meet, boo, hoo , hoo.

Begged, borrowed and stole to get my first house, lived on sausages and mashed potatoes, did our shopping with a calculator and once you hit the limit that was it. Took me a 1 - 2 months to save up enough money to buy a $20 carton of beer. Big screen tv.....pfffft, car........$600 bomb, plus 2 kids to feed.

As tech/a said FEAR, it was scarry as hell but you have to bite the bullet. What's the worst that can happen, you have to sell up and start again. Risk = Reward no difference between shares and houses.


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## insider (5 February 2008)

tech/a said:


> And then there are those of us who actually took part in the boom and some who took part in past booms.All geared at around 35% or less who couldn't give a rats about interest rates,or 20%(Or whatever decline you wish to guess) decline in our property values.
> Some have increased in value 300% so a 30% or 40% decline---who cares.
> 
> We actually did something and didn't sit back whinging about how expensive it was/is.
> ...




I feel sick reading this....


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## dalek (5 February 2008)

tech/a said:


> You know most will NEVER pull the trigger.To much fear.Many are crippled by fear.
> 
> $300 or more a week on rent--yep good thinking.
> No tax deductions,no security.
> ...




Extremely well said   This post should be mandatory reading !?!?


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## r m (5 February 2008)

It feels to me like there is a lot of scaremongering going on by the media regarding interest rates.  Hard to believe of informative reputable current affairs programmes such as TT (Twoddle Tonight) and ACA (Another Crisis Actually).

x rate rises in succession ... yes, but only little ones of .25% each.

Interest rates high... at 7%?  7% isn't really that high, is it?  Once the interest rate is above 10% it is a big news story but moving up to 7% is not really that big a deal.


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## numbercruncher (5 February 2008)

tech/a said:


> Some have increased in value 300% so a 30% or 40% decline---who cares.




You must be Flu$h Tech to not care about a 40pc decline 

Personally Id have sympathy for all caught in the mess, but im just a bleeding heart


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## tech/a (5 February 2008)

Numbers.

I'm sick to death just like Kris of hearing how bloody hard it is.
Every time I bring up my own stories (and in 54 yrs have a few) I'm also sick and tired of being accused of chest beating or looking for Kudos.

Near enough to bankrupt twice.Lost a house once--wife once--didn't go looking for her either-- 3 Commercial properties in the 80s and most of my business---*these guys don't know what tough is!*

Flush!!--Put it this way its all part of business these days.
And this.
If your nett worth is $5000 then suddenly its $3000 the problem is?
Your good with numbers and reading between the lines----I'm sure you get my drift!


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## wayneL (5 February 2008)

tech/a said:


> *these guys don't know what tough is!*



As annoying as the copious number of youtubes on this forum have become, I just couldn't resist posting this one... again.

Enjoy.


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## tech/a (5 February 2008)

wayneL said:


> As annoying as youtubes have become on this forum, I just couldn't resist posting this one... again.
> 
> Enjoy.





So you know Norman Singen Pollvolter then.
Doug and Dinsdale Piranha.
And of course the Parrot---but that's dead,snuffed it,deceased,over the other side.
We can Burn it Bury it or Dump it.

Don't mention the war!


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## MS+Tradesim (5 February 2008)

But you trying telling these young people today about Monte Python and they won't believe you! 

Eric the half a bee. 

Ps. Long live vikings and spam.


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## weev (6 February 2008)

Stop_the_clock said:


> Hot off the press ACA and Today tonight have finally stopped ramping the housing market and are now very bearish
> 
> Remember the hundreds and thousands of hum-drum stories over the past 3years about how anybody could be a multi-millionare and buy 10 properties, lets not stop at 10, lets go 20 properties....yes we could all do it following the 10 simple steps etc
> 
> ...




Well observed. 

Those programs are part of the information diarrhea that explodes across our sense perceptors.

I watched ACA tonight which I never do (don't actually own a TV) and saw the great ship shift direction - from hoopla to doom.

The bottomline though is to tap into peoples concerns, fears, hopes and dreams. Keep the punters watching, and ultimately - and this really is the only point - show them ads. 

And banks are good television advertisers.


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## Kimosabi (6 February 2008)

It's simple...

Credit Expansion = Boom
Credit Contraction = Bust

Once you work out that the worlds monetary and banking systems are the biggest scams on the planet and you understand how they create the booms and busts, the sooner you can position yourself to take advantage the boom and busts.


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## ROE (6 February 2008)

Stop_the_clock said:


> Hot off the press ACA and Today tonight have finally stopped ramping the housing market and are now very bearish
> 
> Remember the hundreds and thousands of hum-drum stories over the past 3years about how anybody could be a multi-millionare and buy 10 properties, lets not stop at 10, lets go 20 properties....yes we could all do it following the 10 simple steps etc
> 
> ...




No one rob you or younger generation of anything. It's a capitalist country
and supply and demand dictates price. 
House price will continue to go up as long as demand outstrip supply, same goes with the stocks if you have 100 buyers
and only 80 sellers the stock will sell for higher price.

I dont have 2 or three or four properties and I don't blame anyone for the current price, it just the way it is. I refuse to buy because in my book its too expensive and I cant afford it  until such a time I think it's cheap I will buy.
and if people getting into too deep and go bankrupt, they shouldn't blame interest rate rise or government either.


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## Aussiejeff (6 February 2008)

MS+Tradesim said:


> But you trying telling these young people today about *Monte* Python and they won't believe you!
> 
> Eric the half a bee.
> 
> Ps. Long live vikings and spam.




The Knights of Ni say ..... *NI!!* and spake the following wordeth...

_"Thou shalt take thy humble *Monte* and shallt re-spell hymnth 1,000 timeth on yon blackened board, thusly: 

**MONTY*
*MONTY*
*MONTY** 
etcetera...etcetera...etcetera..."_

Thus shallt ye be spared further ignominy...."

*NI*


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## Aussiejeff (6 February 2008)

I've just had a thought...

This whole shambolic Sub-Prime cum World Financial Markets Meltdown thingy IS just a long, drawn out MONTY PYTHON sketch that we are living out, isn't it?

_"There coming to take me awaaay, ha ha, hee hee, ho ho.....!"_


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## Santob (6 February 2008)

Aussiejeff said:


> I've just had a thought...
> 
> This whole shambolic Sub-Prime cum World Financial Markets Meltdown thingy IS just a long, drawn out MONTY PYTHON sketch that we are living out, isn't it?
> 
> _"There coming to take me awaaay, ha ha, hee hee, ho ho.....!"_




SPAM SPAM SPAM SUBPRIME AND SPAM


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## numbercruncher (6 February 2008)

Least the Pollys are taking some boom to bust on board as well 



> Deputy Prime Minister Julia Gillard says a suggestion by Prime Minister Kevin Rudd that politicians might take a pay cut to set an example for the country is a serious one.




http://www.abc.net.au/news/stories/2008/02/06/2155396.htm?section=justin


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## tech/a (6 February 2008)

Surely there is a Polititians UNION which will have something to say about that!!

I can see Australian workers by the 1000s rolling up to their employers offering to take a cut in wages.

Monty Pythons Flying Circus has come to Canberra.

To quote the "Black Knight"

AH! Its only a flesh wound!!


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## Buddy (6 February 2008)

Greenspan's just a naughty boy, eh?
and...
I like Chineeeeese, they come up to your kneeees..........


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## MS+Tradesim (6 February 2008)

From the ABC link above:



> Ms Gillard says she would be prepared to take a *lower pay rise* than the remuneration tribunal recommends.




Not a pay cut, but a lower pay rise. Pollies speaketh with forked tongue.

Ps. Monty, Monty, Monty. Thus haveth I absolveth mine transgressions.


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## Aussiejeff (6 February 2008)

MS+Tradesim said:


> From the ABC link above:
> 
> 
> 
> ...




*Ni!*


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## r m (9 February 2008)

One thing to say regarding politicians and pay is look at all forms of remuneration.

Super contributions for politicians were 9%.  Increased by Howard recently to 15%.  Justification, apparently we have to encourage and reward talented people to become politicians.  Hmmm!


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## numbercruncher (9 February 2008)

r m said:


> One thing to say regarding politicians and pay is look at all forms of remuneration.
> 
> Super contributions for politicians were 9%.  Increased by Howard recently to 15%.  Justification, apparently we have to encourage and reward talented people to become politicians.  Hmmm!





As much as I hate to admit it, I sort of agree with this thinking, especially during this boom.

Wages for the talented and skilled have seen huge growth in the Private sector and we really do need skilled intelligent people running the country, that want to be there. Its a fine balance though, you also want people doing the Job beacause they want to do it rather than just want the cash, last thing we need is more fickle pollys!


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## numbercruncher (12 February 2008)

Seems the slow down and Interest rates are starting to take toll.



> Car parts firm closes, 300 lose jobs
> Tuesday Feb 12 14:02 AEDT
> Australia's largest car parts distributor has gone into liquidation, putting 300 people out of work.
> 
> ...




http://news.ninemsn.com.au/article.aspx?id=107974

I fear more to come over coming months


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## numbercruncher (13 February 2008)

Increasingly looking like the party's over 




> ECONOMIC data for January suggests the Australian economy has already passed its peak, even as the Reserve Bank prepares to again raise interest rates in the fight against runaway inflation.
> 
> Business confidence collapsed last month, falling 9 points to minus 4 index points, according to National Australia Bank's monthly survey.
> 
> It is the lowest the measure has fallen since the September 11, 2001, terrorist attacks. And if the unprecedented events of 2001 are excluded, it equals the lowest business confidence figures recorded.




http://business.theage.com.au/slump-in-confidence-survey/20080212-1ru5.html


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## Aussiejeff (13 February 2008)

numbercruncher said:


> Increasingly looking like the party's over
> 
> 
> 
> ...




Unless you are a Privileged Pollie.... then Party Time kicks on ad-nauseaum... regardless of the economic plight... LOL

Pass me the Champers, Swannie me ol' mate... *Hic...*  


AJ


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