# Copper - Back above $3lb!



## YOUNG_TRADER

Just saw Copper is finally back above the $3lb level

Thoughts?


----------



## wayneL

Nice bounce, but still some work to do before we can call it a bull again.


----------



## Sean K

wayneL said:
			
		

> Nice bounce, but still some work to do before we can call it a bull again.



Above 325/30 ish will be good.


----------



## vishalt

yea nice bounce, looks like itlll break that downtrend line past $3.20 whichd be good to see


----------



## Halba

Comeback noted, but higher prices will suppress demand again.


----------



## rederob

Halba said:
			
		

> comeback noted, but higher prices will suppress demand again



Oh, like it is with nickel.....


----------



## Halba

Copper is not nickel....high prices encourage substitution...nickel there just isn't enuff of it atm.  :luigi:


----------



## rederob

Halba said:
			
		

> Copper is not nickel....high prices encourage substitution...nickel there just isn't enuff of it atm.  :luigi:



Let's see, we can't substitute nickel at $50k/tonne because there is not enough, but we can with copper at $6k/tonne because there is plenty.
Yep.
I got it.
Copper is not nickel.
 :1zhelp:


----------



## Halba

There is limited substitution going on with nickel. However the price of nickel is arguably gone beyond fundamental limits and is a 'bubble' now. Hard to compare apples with oranges here... :bowser:

I myself think copper is no value at $3/lb. Should be closer to 2.20 a pound. There are many mines and mine supply outlook is there in the next few years.


----------



## bvbfan

No doubt the decline is copper inventories is behind this move but could it also be some flow on from  hedge funds reducing risk and exitting their short positions?
Copper didn't really suffer that much from the meltdown (from what I remember) compared to other metals


----------



## CanOz

rederob said:
			
		

> Let's see, we can't substitute nickel at $50k/tonne because there is not enough, but we can with copper at $6k/tonne because there is plenty.
> Yep.
> I got it.
> Copper is not nickel.
> :1zhelp:




What is the substitute for copper? Just curious, but i would have thought nickel was easier to substitute.

Cheers,


----------



## Halba

Aluminium, sells for $1.25/lb, cheaper alloys using this.

Scrap metal too.


----------



## nioka

Halba said:
			
		

> Aluminium, sells for $1.25/lb, cheaper alloys using this.
> 
> Scrap metal too.



Aluminium would not be a suitable substitute for nickel in coins. Copper has been used before and will be used again. Most 'silver' coins are only worth as much as the last of the copper ones anyway. Don't know how much influence it would have on either the copper or nickel price but it would have some. I'm sure the mint is looking at it by now.

Nickel coins will soon be worth more as scrap metal.


----------



## YOUNG_TRADER

It held $3 lb last night (eventually) which I thought was good


----------



## BREND

While inventory level at LME has been falling since Feb 07, inventory level at Shanghai has been rising for the same period. 

I don't think that demand for copper has improved, people are just taking advantage of the big gap difference between copper price in Shanghai and LME. Once the price gap between Shanghai and LME narrows down, we should see falling of copper inventory at LME stops.


----------



## YOUNG_TRADER

Hi Brend,

Sent u a pm

Was concerning a rumour I heard yesterday from some investment bankers about a 1 Billion Tonne Short position in the copper market

Also that Copper imports to China are at an all time high,

What price level do you and others see Copper stabilising at for say the next 3 months?

I personally am bullish on the next 3 months for copper


Also Brend sorry but can you explain this a bit 

_"I don't think that demand for copper has improved, people are just taking advantage of the big gap difference between copper price in Shanghai and LME. Once the price gap between Shanghai and LME narrows down, we should see falling of copper inventory at LME stops."_

I can't understand the gist of that statement, are you saying copper is cheaper on LME than Shanghai hence peeps are buying off LME instead of Shanghai?

Thanks in advance


----------



## BREND

YOUNG_TRADER said:
			
		

> Hi Brend,
> 
> Sent u a pm
> 
> Was concerning a rumour I heard yesterday from some investment bankers about a 1 Billion Tonne Short position in the copper market
> 
> Also that Copper imports to China are at an all time high,
> 
> What price level do you and others see Copper stabilising at for say the next 3 months?
> 
> I personally am bullish on the next 3 months for copper
> 
> 
> Also Brend sorry but can you explain this a bit
> 
> _"I don't think that demand for copper has improved, people are just taking advantage of the big gap difference between copper price in Shanghai and LME. Once the price gap between Shanghai and LME narrows down, we should see falling of copper inventory at LME stops."_
> 
> I can't understand the gist of that statement, are you saying copper is cheaper on LME than Shanghai hence peeps are buying off LME instead of Shanghai?
> 
> Thanks in advance




In the month of Feb, LME Copper inventory falls 26,800mt, but Shanghai roses 32,111mt. Doesnt just look like a change of hands? If there is real demand, how come the net is still a rise?


----------



## YOUNG_TRADER

Looks like Chinese stockpilling to me,

So as I asked, where do you see copper over the next 3months,


I see a $3 - $3.50 range


----------



## BREND

YOUNG_TRADER said:
			
		

> Looks like Chinese stockpilling to me,
> 
> So as I asked, where do you see copper over the next 3months,
> 
> 
> I see a $3 - $3.50 range




I don't know. Copper is becoming like a gambling pawn for hedge funds nowadays, there is hardly any valid explanation for their movement except funds' movements. 

I can tell you frankly that the fundamental for copper is weak, price should not go to this level based on fundamental alone.

I rather invest into other metals that are less speculative.


----------



## rederob

Halba said:
			
		

> There is limited substitution going on with nickel. However the price of nickel is arguably gone beyond fundamental limits and is a 'bubble' now. Hard to compare apples with oranges here... :bowser:
> 
> I myself think copper is no value at $3/lb. Should be closer to 2.20 a pound. There are many mines and mine supply outlook is there in the next few years.



\
Halba
What/where is your evidence about lack of nickel substitution?

On copper, it's easy to say it's only worth $2,20.
However, it never got there on the big dipper, and has now rallied strongly on excellent fundamentals.
Yes, there is plenty mine supply.  But there is also very strong demand for copper.
The dangerous game to play is guessing the impact of US housing on copper demand.  Despite a massive housing slump, Comex copper inventories are presently declining!!!
Industry consensus has copper concentrates in potential deficit for the next 2 years.  
How likely is that?
In my view it is a high probability because Eastern demand is increasing beyond supply, while the US situation suggests a generally balanced state.
Behind all this is metal destocking, tight scrap availabilities, and firm buying on price dips. 
The commodity bull rides on copper's back, and copper's back.....
with a vengeance.


----------



## chops_a_must

nioka said:
			
		

> Aluminium would not be a suitable substitute for nickel in coins. Copper has been used before and will be used again. Most 'silver' coins are only worth as much as the last of the copper ones anyway. Don't know how much influence it would have on either the copper or nickel price but it would have some. I'm sure the mint is looking at it by now.
> 
> Nickel coins will soon be worth more as scrap metal.



I posted about this somewhere else:
https://www.aussiestockforums.com/forums/showpost.php?p=133822&postcount=248

When I last checked, our 20c coins are worth just over 19c. When you take into account other costs, there is very little difference between the face value, and metal value. Time to stock up on this years coins. Lol!

There are big problems right now with the US nickles. This is a little out of date:
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Nickel_(United_States_coin)#Metal_value

They are now worth 10US cents in metal.


----------



## BREND

rederob said:
			
		

> \
> Halba
> What/where is your evidence about lack of nickel substitution?
> 
> On copper, it's easy to say it's only worth $2,20.
> However, it never got there on the big dipper, and has now rallied strongly on excellent fundamentals.
> Yes, there is plenty mine supply.  But there is also very strong demand for copper.
> The dangerous game to play is guessing the impact of US housing on copper demand.  Despite a massive housing slump, Comex copper inventories are presently declining!!!
> Industry consensus has copper concentrates in potential deficit for the next 2 years.
> How likely is that?
> In my view it is a high probability because Eastern demand is increasing beyond supply, while the US situation suggests a generally balanced state.
> Behind all this is metal destocking, tight scrap availabilities, and firm buying on price dips.
> The commodity bull rides on copper's back, and copper's back.....
> with a vengeance.




Copper inventory falls at LME, but rise in Shanghai. Is there really a real demand?


----------



## rederob

BREND said:
			
		

> Copper inventory falls at LME, but rise in Shanghai. Is there really a real demand?



Brend
Shanghai represents a few warehouse locations in China.
LME drawdowns and cancellations are occurring across the globe, including China.
Are you suggesting the drawdowns in Europe, the USA and Asia in recent weeks are fabrications?


----------



## BREND

rederob said:


> Brend
> Shanghai represents a few warehouse locations in China.
> LME drawdowns and cancellations are occurring across the globe, including China.
> Are you suggesting the drawdowns in Europe, the USA and Asia in recent weeks are fabrications?




From what I know and heard, for the past 1 month physical traders are buying copper at LME, and sell to Shanghai, earning an arbitrage profit. 

I will only be convinced that there is a real demand for copper when LME copper inventory continues to fall, but Shanghai inventory stops rising.


----------



## BradK

Can someone explain how arbitrage works in practice? 

I just looked up a dictionary definition, but I am not sure how it works in practice. 

Brad


----------



## wayneL

I have virtually guaranteed that copper will race away to the upside in a parabolic trend by selling my futures on friday LOL

Get long!!!!  

(still have a few stock options in the sector though... just in case )


----------



## rederob

BradK said:


> Can someone explain how arbitrage works in practice?
> 
> I just looked up a dictionary definition, but I am not sure how it works in practice.
> 
> Brad



Brad
Prices for the same item (commodity/currency etc) can be markedly different elsewhere for a variety of reasons (tax concessions, currency/exchange rates, etc).
In some cases it is possible to buy the physical at the lesser rate and sell it at a much higher rate, almost simultaneously, elsewhere.
In the metals market, for example, a number of Chinese consumers have been diverting a portion of their forward orders of nickel (that were "purchased" under contract last year in the $30k/tonne range) into the LME system and pocketing the odd $10k/tonne difference (an LME nickel lot is 6 tonnes, so the minimum profit is large. Although this principle uses the "backwardation" mechanism, it is nevertheless "arbitrage" as the transaction could have simply gone ahead as originally intended and no diversion made to LME in order to profit.
Chinese metals markets are presently prone to arbitrage opportunities for a number of reasons, although tax concessions have given rise to most of the action in recent years.
Is can be misleading to think, perhaps as Brend's posts suggest, that arbitrage opportunities for copper are "*directly*" giving rise to Shanghai's exchange stocks of copper increasing.  However, the strong link may be that it is cheaper for a consumer to import physical metal from LME and divert a forward delivery from local production into Shanghai's warehouses - ie indirect arbitrage effect.
Copper is not cheap to insure and ship around the world to take advantage of "raw" price differences, so the nature of arbitrage needs to be sensitive to a range of additional factors.


----------



## YOUNG_TRADER

Redrob have you heard anything about a 1 Billion Tonne Copper short position?

Last week I had a chat with some investment bankers, who had been told from their London counterparts that there could be a huge surge in the price of copper as this short tries to close out (is stopped out)

I am yet to confirm this directly for myslef though,

From what I understand an unfortunate Chinese trader who had a big Copper short last year was partly responsible for Coppers parabolic rise as he was stopped out.

Thoughts?


----------



## BSD

1 BILLION tonnes?!?!?!?!

That is over 5,000 times the LME Warehouse stocks

Pounds maybe - not tonnes.


----------



## rederob

YOUNG_TRADER said:


> Redrob have you heard anything about a 1 Billion Tonne Copper short position?
> 
> Thoughts?



If such a short position existed I suspect it would have been well revealed by now.
But I am not directly involved in the commodity sector, so that is simply my view.
Copper is destined to rise on concentrate shortages as demand in 2007 seems unlikely to be met.


----------



## YOUNG_TRADER

No sign of "flagging" in copper imports2007-03-23 Source：Shanghai Daily   Author：    [Font size：Bigger Middle Smaller] 
BEIJING, March 23 -- *China, the world's biggest consumer of copper, more than doubled imports of the metal in February compared with the same month last year as the nation entered its peak demand period for the construction industry. *
Imports of refined copper and alloys rose to 152,651 metric tons, 167 percent more than a year earlier, according to data issued by the Beijing-based Customs office yesterday. That's the highest import level since May 2005, according to data by Bloomberg News. 

The price of copper, used in plumbing materials and wires, has gained five percent so far this year amid speculation that Chinese imports would pick up on seasonal demand. The country drew on its stockpiles after prices rose to a record 8,800 U.S. dollars a ton on May 11, and last year's imports slumped by almost a third. 

"Chinese demand for imports is showing no sign of flagging," said Li Ling, a trader at Star Futures Co. in Shanghai. "As it's entering a peak consumption period, some processors increased purchases." 

Copper prices have rallied every year since 2002 because of falling stockpiles, strong Chinese demand and supply disruptions from major producers such as Chile. 

On the London Metal Exchange, copper for delivery in three months rose 136dollars, or 2.1 percent, to 6,745 U.S. dollars a ton, at 6:08pm Shanghai time yesterday. Copper for delivery in June rose 0.7 percent to settle at 61,000 yuan (7,895 dollars) a ton on the Shanghai Futures Exchange. 

China's apparent consumption of copper was 356,763 tons in February, according to Bloomberg calculations derived by combining production and imports, minus exports and reported stockpile increases. 

China's demand for copper rose to 387,000 tons in January from 288,000 tons a year earlier, the World Bureau of Metal Statistics said on Wednesday. 

The country's output of copper fell 4.8 percent to 220,000 tons in February, according to data from the National Bureau of Statistics issued in a statement on March 16. 

Refined copper production has been limited by shortages of copper concentrates, the raw material for the refined metal. Imports of copper concentrates rose 35 percent to 392,366 tons in February, the customs data showed. 

In February, copper stockpiles monitored by the Shanghai Futures Exchange rose 16,888 tons, or 70 percent, to 40,886 tons. Stockpiles of the rival lightweight metal aluminum rose 63,334 tons, or 217 percent, to 92,927 tons. 

　(Source: Shanghai Daily)


----------



## YOUNG_TRADER

Closed at $3.13c doing well so far


----------



## BREND

Copper price has start to fall since yesterday. Reason given by the market is technical selling and weak new home sales in US.


----------



## rederob

BREND said:


> Copper price has start to fall since yesterday. Reason given by the market is technical selling and weak new home sales in US.



It's just a short term reaction.
The medium term will see copper rise further.
It is now also clearer than ever that the US is not the dominant force it was in years previous: China's demand is more than compensating for significant weakness in the US market.


----------



## BREND

rederob said:


> It's just a short term reaction.
> The medium term will see copper rise further.
> It is now also clearer than ever that the US is not the dominant force it was in years previous: China's demand is more than compensating for significant weakness in the US market.




Agreed on the US. But you are not worried about the rise in Shanghai inventory?


----------



## YOUNG_TRADER

BREND said:


> Agreed on the US. But you are not worried about the rise in Shanghai inventory?




Partially offset by declining LME and COMEX inventory

As well as the fact that I've read rising Shanghai inventory will be taking out when end users begin re-stocking.

I still think it will get to $3.50 in the next 2 months


----------



## YOUNG_TRADER

*Its closed back above its 200DMA*


DJ BASE METALS: Comex Copper Closes Above 200-Day Average
By Allen Sykora 

  Of DOW JONES NEWSWIRES 



  A combination of technical strength, favorable U.S. economic data and
stronger crude oil futures helped copper post a gain Thursday, analysts said.
Copper closed above its 200-day moving average. 

  The most-active May copper contract rose 2.40 cents to settle at $3.0865 per
pound on the Comex division of the New York Mercantile Exchange. 

  Some support came from an upward revision in fourth-quarter U.S.
gross-domestic-product growth to 2.5% from the previously reported 2.2%, said
Jim Quinn, commodity floor analyst with A.G. Edwards. A stronger economy bodes
well for copper demand. 

  Also, the strength in crude oil spilled over into copper, Quinn said. 

  "We were able to get back above the 200-day moving average, which was
$3.0685," Quinn said. In particular, this may have brought in some
managed-money buying, he said. 

  The analyst also cited the market's ability to hold above nearby support
traders have been putting around $3. And, technically, a higher low than
Wednesday also helped sentiment. 

  Several traders and analysts said during the course of the day the market
still perceives fundamentals to be favorable, leading to buying lately on any
profit-taking price pullbacks. 

  "Copper is reacting to continued growth in China," said Michael Gross, broker
and analyst with Liberty Group. "The market continues to believe the Chinese
economy continues to be strong." 

  There is potential for month-end position squaring on Friday, said Quinn.
Otherwise, the market will be watching for the once-a-week inventory data
release from the Shanghai Futures Exchange, as well as a heavy slate of U.S.
economic data, he said. 

  The U.S. economic calendar is full Friday and includes: 

  -- personal income and spending at 8:30 a.m. EDT (1230 GMT), with both
expected to be up 0.3% in February; 

  -- the Chicago Purchasing Managers Index at 9:45 a.m. EDT (1345 GMT),
expected to rise to 50.0 in March from 47.9 last month; 

  -- University of Michigan consumer-sentiment index at 10 a.m. EDT (1400 GMT),
expected to come in at 88.5, compared to 88.8 in the middle of the month; and 

  -- January construction spending at 10 a.m. EDT (1400 GMT), expected to fall
0.5%. 

  Inventories of copper in London Metal Exchange warehouses rose 650 metric
tons Thursday, leaving them at 179,875 metric tons. The most recent Comex
stocks data, released late Wednesday afternoon, were down 118 short tons at
36,438 short tons. 


Copper settlements (ranges include electronic and pit trading): 
May  (HGK07)  $3.0865; up 2.40c; Range $3.0260-$3.0950 
July  (HGN07)  $3.0825; up 2.50c; Range $3.0300-$3.0880 


  -By Allen Sykora, Dow Jones Newswires; 541-318-8765;
allen.sykora@dowjones.com


----------



## wayneL

YOUNG_TRADER said:


> *Its closed back above its 200DMA*
> 
> 
> DJ BASE METALS: Comex Copper Closes Above 200-Day Average
> By Allen Sykora



YT

Just a totally pedantic point: Long term MAs on futures contracts are not accurate like they are on stocks.

Why?

If plotted on a single contract, all the older data is skewed by cantango/backwardation giving a totally inaccurate reading. 

If plotted on a continuous contract chart, it will be "more" accurate, but still not ideal because of the change of prices at contract rollover due to cantango/backwardation.

For instance on the continuous chart, copper still has not broken through the 200dma.

If you can find a cash chart, then we can talk long term MAs.

You can still use them as a general "guide" and it makes good copy for new articles, but it is a nonsense in fact.

Cheers


----------



## wayneL

Continuous Copper verses April '07 Copper


----------



## Sean K

wayneL said:


> Continuous Copper verses April '07 Copper



Looks to be holding above critical 300 level for the minute. Needs to hold or it's still going down perhaps.


----------



## wayneL

Whacking a few lines on the continuous....

....at a point of interest currently.


----------



## BREND

Copper price should have a big fall in the next few weeks.


----------



## rederob

BREND said:


> Agreed on the US. But you are not worried about the rise in Shanghai inventory?



Inventory rise is due to the arbitrage: It's presently cheaper to import than to buy locally.
I expect this trend will continue for a while to come.
On the price, it's clear that the froth needs to be blown off the top.
Fundamentally, good drawdowns of LME copper look set to continue, even in the US.  So I expect any significant copper price weakness will be strongly bought into, capping downside in the near term.


----------



## BREND

I heard that 10s of thousand tons of copper are waiting at China port, waiting to come onto main land. If their licenses are approved, then supply of copper in China will increase a lot.


----------



## rederob

BREND said:


> I heard that 10s of thousand tons of copper are waiting at China port, waiting to come onto main land. If their licenses are approved, then supply of copper in China will increase a lot.



Brend
That may be true (I have no knowledge either way), but if the present consumption rate in China is maintained, then what's in the ships will just cause one of many blips on the price charts: I suspect there will need to be substantiall *and *regular tonnages over and above demand to curb copper's present upward trajectory.
I guess my other question would have been to ask if it is refined metal or concentrates on the ships: Concentrates are in strong demand.


----------



## BREND

rederob said:


> Brend
> That may be true (I have no knowledge either way), but if the present consumption rate in China is maintained, then what's in the ships will just cause one of many blips on the price charts: I suspect there will need to be substantiall *and *regular tonnages over and above demand to curb copper's present upward trajectory.
> I guess my other question would have been to ask if it is refined metal or concentrates on the ships: Concentrates are in strong demand.




I guess its refined copper. So are u predicting that copper will rise to $8000?
Currently I do not have a strong view on copper. I do think that zinc price will continue to fall.


----------



## YOUNG_TRADER

Wayne, could you please repost that copper chart of yours as at today,

With copper getting to $3.15lb I think it may have broken out above the descending resistance line


Thnaks


----------



## wayneL

YOUNG_TRADER said:


> Wayne, could you please repost that copper chart of yours as at today,
> 
> With copper getting to $3.15lb I think it may have broken out above the descending resistance line
> 
> 
> Thnaks



Yep it's definitely have a peek to see whether it likes it up there and as you can see its up a couple more since the close. Some technicians might draw in resistance somewhere in the area of the orange box, but I think it's a bit tenuous as to if/where, hence I haven't drawn any lines myself.

For your amusement \/


----------



## YOUNG_TRADER

Thanks Wayne,

Personally I was surprised that we had a 3000t flow in of Copper yet the Spot price gained!

Looks like mkt thinks any additions will be short term blip,

I still expect $3.50 in the next 2 months, after that


----------



## vishalt

$3.22!!! The copper bull is back and surging!


----------



## wayneL

wayneL said:


> I have virtually guaranteed that copper will race away to the upside in a parabolic trend by selling my futures on friday LOL
> 
> Get long!!!!
> 
> (still have a few stock options in the sector though... just in case )






vishalt said:


> $3.22!!! The copper bull is back and surging!




Told you! LOL


----------



## YOUNG_TRADER

I knew it was ready for a run, sheesh may smash $3.50 in a heart beat,


----------



## BREND

I'll be happy to see copper price continues to trend up, because I'm an investor of Rio Tinto. And I'm currently doing some testing on system trading, and currently the system shows that copper should still be going up.


----------



## wayneL

YOUNG_TRADER said:


> Thanks Wayne,
> 
> Personally I was surprised that we had a 3000t flow in of Copper yet the Spot price gained!
> 
> Looks like mkt thinks any additions will be short term blip,
> 
> *I still expect $3.50 in the next 2 months*, after that




Ding!!!

Went over the top on monday night 7 weeks ahead of schedule.

Shooting star today FWIW.


----------



## YOUNG_TRADER

Go copper!

Thanks for that Nick, it was very interesting to watch


----------



## rederob

Media articles suggest China is moving copper prices north.
In fact highest copper metal cancellation rates are in the US, followed by Europe, and these locations are accommodating the LME stock declines.
Any pickup in Asian cancellation rates will propel copper prices sharply higher, and any price retraces in the near term would become short and shallow.
What Chinese data now shows is a resumption of strong copper imports, which in turn deplete available stocks elsewhere.  The cumulative effect of this will become more pronounced via warehouse cancellations at Shanghai, on Comex, and the LME.
If we don't see this flow-through in coming months then a steady price decline to around the $3 level is most likely.


----------



## BREND

Nick Radge said:


> The problem with your comment BREND is that you already know this. If you, being a broker, already know this, then the rest of the market probably also knows it and will have priced it in accordingly. Its just not that simple.
> 
> FWIW here are MY THOUGHTS
> 
> 
> 
> _This post may contain advice that has been prepared by Reef Capital Coaching ABN 24 092 309 978 (“RCC”) and is general advice and does not take account of your objectives, financial situation or needs. Before acting on this general advice you should therefore consider the appropriateness of the advice having regard to your situation. We recommend you obtain financial, legal and taxation advice before making any financial investment decision.
> 
> 
> Past performance is not a reliable indication of future performance. This material has been prepared based on information believed to be accurate at the time of publication. Subsequent changes in circumstances may occur at any time and may impact the accuracy of the information._




I agree with you. 
It seems that metal futures trading, the winners are mostly the technical traders.


----------



## CanOz

What i'm about to share with you, i do so only as a warning to others trading CFD's.

Today i wanted to go short on Copper (may07). I've been trading gold and oil recently on support and resistance, with some minor success. The contracts were all minis. I looked at the chart, and thought this looks like a nice safe spot to enter and it looked like it was slowly breaking down. I put in my order for 5 (yes 5 contracts), thinking it was a mini  .

Immediately i realised my mistake, too late, the spread took 1500.00 right away. I thought, oh my god.....then i thought...wait, trade it like i planned...be cool, calm. It proceeded to push UP through the channel line over the next two hours and when i finally pulled the pin i lost 6900.00.

So far in my trading over the last couple of years i've never taken a loss like this, they've been much smaller, on shares, using tight stops. 

This was a stupid, stupid mistake which i hope non of the other "inexperienced" members here make. 

I had no real plan
I did not check out the contract size properly
I took no consideration of risk at all

I was gambling, plain and simple.

CFD's are dangerous....be aware.

Cheers,


----------



## Wysiwyg

CanOz said:


> What i'm about to share with you, i do so only as a warning to others trading CFD's.
> 
> Today i wanted to go short on Copper (may07). I've been trading gold and oil recently on support and resistance, with some minor success. The contracts were all minis. I looked at the chart, and thought this looks like a nice safe spot to enter and it looked like it was slowly breaking down. I put in my order for 5 (yes 5 contracts), thinking it was a mini  .
> 
> Immediately i realised my mistake, too late, the spread took 1500.00 right away. I thought, oh my god.....then i thought...wait, trade it like i planned...be cool, calm. It proceeded to push UP through the channel line over the next two hours and when i finally pulled the pin i lost 6900.00.
> 
> So far in my trading over the last couple of years i've never taken a loss like this, they've been much smaller, on shares, using tight stops.
> 
> This was a stupid, stupid mistake which i hope non of the other "inexperienced" members here make.
> 
> I had no real plan
> I did not check out the contract size properly
> I took no consideration of risk at all
> 
> I was gambling, plain and simple.
> 
> CFD's are dangerous....be aware.
> 
> Cheers,





Hi CanOz...Can you tell me what was the time restriction on your shorts as to enforce a sell at a loss?  Thanx.


----------



## CanOz

You mean the expiry? It was the May 07 contract, third Friday prior to the contract month. Copper is still going, what a nice breakout....would have taken out my original stop as well.


----------



## wayneL

CanOz said:


> What i'm about to share with you, i do so only as a warning to others trading CFD's.
> 
> Today i wanted to go short on Copper (may07). I've been trading gold and oil recently on support and resistance, with some minor success. The contracts were all minis. I looked at the chart, and thought this looks like a nice safe spot to enter and it looked like it was slowly breaking down. I put in my order for 5 (yes 5 contracts), thinking it was a mini  .
> 
> Immediately i realised my mistake, too late, the spread took 1500.00 right away. I thought, oh my god.....then i thought...wait, trade it like i planned...be cool, calm. It proceeded to push UP through the channel line over the next two hours and when i finally pulled the pin i lost 6900.00.
> 
> So far in my trading over the last couple of years i've never taken a loss like *this, they've been much smaller, on shares, using tight stops.
> 
> This was a stupid, stupid mistake which i hope non of the other "inexperienced" members here make.
> 
> I had no real plan
> I did not check out the contract size properly
> I took no consideration of risk at all
> 
> I was gambling, plain and simple.
> 
> CFD's are dangerous....be aware.
> 
> Cheers,



Onya for sharing that CanOz. I have a file called the "You Idiot" file, where I stash away such experiences. We all have them  Those that have been around a while have thick ones LOL. Mine's very thick. lol

It's the one disadvantage of futures IMO (or CFD derivatives thereof) is remembering all the different contact sizes, different expiry dates, symbols ETC ETC ETC.

I have a folder I made up that contains all the relative info for each commodity:
*trading hours
*ticker
*expiry months
*notice period (if any)
*trading unit
*tick size
*value of one tick
*contract size
*approximate underlying contract value
*typical statistical volatility

I refer to it before making a trade even though I pretty much know it, it takes the stress out of remembering that when I'm concentrating on a potential signal.

fwiw


----------



## professor_frink

Sorry to hear that canuck 

Sounds like you've learned your lesson and won't be doing anything like that again in a hurry, so there are always positives to come out of situations like these

FWIW, I've done something similar on the nikkei- there are 3 different nikkei contracts, accidently bought the big one, got stopped out for 4 times more than planned

Ended up missing a trade the day after because I spent too long making sure I was trading the right one and the market got away from me. And yes, it would have been a winner(probably would have been stopped out if I got filled LOL!)


----------



## CanOz

Thanks for the tips fellas. Good advice, feels better to get it off my chest too...no one to really talk to about it here....still shell shocked.


----------



## petervan

May need a new thread shortly, maybe middle May -Copper-Back above $4lb!


----------



## CanOz

This sucker's getting ready to roll over and die....still not game to short it though  

Cheers,


----------



## CanOz

And over it goes....


----------



## petervan

I,ve jinxed it LOL


----------



## CanOz

I like the way these pivots line up for this retracement to finish just below the gap, before the next move up.....any one agree or care to comment?


----------



## YOUNG_TRADER

Lots of articles on strikes at major mines and Xstrata declaring force majeure due to flooding etc should help price

http://www.platts.com/Metals/News/6375894.xml?sub=Metals&p=Metals/News&?undefined&undefined

http://www.hemscott.com/news/latest-news/item.do?newsId=41921028331683

http://www.forextv.com/FT/AFX/ShowStory.jsp?seq=212439

*$4 by the end of the month*


----------



## CanOz

YOUNG_TRADER said:


> Lots of articles on strikes at major mines and Xstrata declaring force majeure due to flooding etc should help price
> 
> http://www.platts.com/Metals/News/6375894.xml?sub=Metals&p=Metals/News&?undefined&undefined
> 
> http://www.hemscott.com/news/latest-news/item.do?newsId=41921028331683
> 
> http://www.forextv.com/FT/AFX/ShowStory.jsp?seq=212439
> 
> *$4 by the end of the month*




I agree, but i'm just waiting to find the best spot to re enter, long this time.

Cheers,


----------



## YOUNG_TRADER

CanOz said:


> I agree, but i'm just waiting to find the best spot to re enter, long this time.
> 
> Cheers,




Whats the news around the Chinese traps Cana?


----------



## CanOz

YOUNG_TRADER said:


> Whats the news around the Chinese traps Cana?




In regards to what YT? The biggest news here is thats it finally spring! Although i'm not certain i've thawed out yet.

Cheers,


----------



## YOUNG_TRADER

CanOz said:


> In regards to what YT?




Bird Flu! Nah

Copper of course, any local news reports etc etc?


----------



## CanOz

YOUNG_TRADER said:


> Bird Flu! Nah
> 
> Copper of course, any local news reports etc etc?




No, the only fundemental info i get on metals is on the net, and mostly from you guys. I trade with the charts so i only pay attention to major news really. Besides i couldn't understand anything in the media here, i can't even get the "China Daily" here, unless its a day late.

Still lots of building going on here and its just re started here in the north, as they shut down for winter in most Northern Cities. I would think the demand after Spring Festival must have increased for most construction type metals?

Cheers,


----------



## CanOz

Copper blazing away towards recent highs yet again.


----------



## BREND

Copper has no sign of slowing down:
http://basemetal-trading.blogspot.com/2007/04/copper-no-sign-of-slowing-down.html


----------



## YOUNG_TRADER

*China's Copper Imports More Than Double on Building (Update2) *

By Xiaowei Li and Xiao Yu

April 23 (Bloomberg) -- China, the world's biggest consumer of copper, more than doubled imports of the metal in March as the peak demand period for the construction industry began. 

Imports of refined copper and alloys rose to 208,014 metric tons, 142 percent more than a year earlier, according to data issued by the Beijing-based customs office today. That's the highest since at least January 2004, according to Bloomberg data. 

China's year-on-year imports of copper, used in electrical wiring and pipes, have risen every month since December, as the country stopped running down its domestic stockpiles. The price of copper has gained 26 percent so far this year. 

``The high level of refined copper imports was expected, reflecting rising seasonal demand and high profitability of importing in the past months,'' said Wang Xiaodan, an analyst at Minmetals Star Futures Co. 

Demand for refined copper in China may rise 10 percent this year, faster than in 2006, as the nation builds more electricity generation capacity, according to CRU International Ltd. 

Imports of copper concentrate rose 2.3 percent to 313,407 metric tons last month, the customs' statement said. Exports of refined copper and alloys fell 93 percent to 3,097 tons, it said. 

China may slash imports of the metal by half from April and throughout the second quarter because of soaring prices, said traders and analysts, including Li Zhifeng at China Minmetals Nonferrous Metals Co. 

Import Profitability 

Traders in China increased imports in the first quarter as the ratio of domestic prices to the London Metal Exchange global benchmark made it profitable. The ratio, which was around 9.5 in February, fell as low as 8.8 in early April and stood at less than 9.0 April 20. 

For imports from Chile, where a free trade agreement allows exemption from import duty, a reading above 9.2 indicates profitability. For other countries, a reading above 9.4 is conducive to imports. 

The ratio is usually calculated by dividing the Chinese cash price in yuan by the London cash price in dollars. Chinese importers have to pay 17 percent value-added tax, 2 percent import duty, freight charges and other costs. 

London Metal Exchange copper for immediate delivery settled at $8,005 a ton April 20, while the metal traded in Changjiang, Shanghai's biggest cash market, between 71,800 and 72,000 yuan a ton the same day. 

On the London Metal Exchange, copper for delivery in three months traded 0.1 percent down at $2,840 a ton at 9:15 a.m. Shanghai time. Copper for delivery in July rose as much as 1,360 yuan, or 1.9 percent, to 74,200 yuan a ton on the Shanghai Futures Exchange, and traded at 73,850 yuan at 9:15 a.m. local time. 

China Demand 

China may consume 4.3 million tons of copper, mainly to meet power industry demand, compared with 3.9 million tons last year, London-based metals consulting CRU said April 17. 

The country's output of copper fell 2.5 percent to 220,000 tons in March and gained 4.2 percent to 702,000 tons in the first quarter, according to data from the National Bureau of Statistics issued April 20. 

Copper stockpiles monitored by the Shanghai Futures Exchange rose 10 percent last week to 67,016 tons. Stockpiles of the rival lightweight metal aluminum fell 21 percent to 61,644 tons. 

Alumina imports fell 35 percent to 355,101 tons, while nickel imports rose 5.5 percent to 7,737 tons. Zinc imports fell 43 percent to 20,063 tons, and exports of zinc surged 245 percent to 33,868 tons, it said. 

Exports of aluminum fell 66 percent to 38,491 tons, while imports of aluminum rose 7.2 percent to 47,451 tons, it said. 

China is the world's biggest user of copper, aluminum, nickel, zinc and lead.


----------



## wayneL

Far canal!


----------



## Sean K

wayneL said:


> Far canal!



You OK Wayne?


----------



## wayneL

Just the mind boggling at big numbers


----------



## rederob

Copper inventories continuing to run down, with drawdowns across all continents.
Given that Comex and LME are both in decline, and have been for some weeks despite copper climbing over $8,000/tonne, the likelihood of further price upside remains good.
Oddly enough, copper's rapid trip north is closely paralleled by events a full year ago: So will we see May collapse the market again, and kill off the bull?


----------



## YOUNG_TRADER

rederob said:


> Oddly enough, copper's rapid trip north is closely paralleled by events a full year ago: So will we see May collapse the market again, and kill off the bull?




Needs to run alot harder for this to happen IMO, not high enough yet, say $4.50lb then where talking get your shorts on shorty!!!!!!!!!!!


----------



## dlineinvestor

*Copper higher on Fri's close*

Due to a weaker US dollar copper traded higher for Friday's LME close
Stockpile stands at 159125 M/Tonnes and a change of [-2050]


----------



## YOUNG_TRADER

Strikes all over Peru = Supply Disruptions

Continued drawdown of LME Stock Levels about 2kt a day = 157kt and falling

All = Cu at $3.70lb, should hit $4 soon given current situation


----------



## BREND

YOUNG_TRADER said:


> Strikes all over Peru = Supply Disruptions
> 
> Continued drawdown of LME Stock Levels about 2kt a day = 157kt and falling
> 
> All = Cu at $3.70lb, should hit $4 soon given current situation




Great! If Cu break $8150/mt, it will just continue its way up.

http://basemetal-trading.blogspot.com/2007/05/review-on-copper-trade.html


----------



## YOUNG_TRADER

Copper continues to decline on the LME yet continues to rise in the Shanghai Futures Exchange, wierd

Either someones just moving copper from LME warehouses to China or something else is up,

Either way mkt is now taking notice of the rise in Chinese Warehouse inventories but is not overlooking the fact that every day an avg of 2kt's of Copper leaves LME warehouses

Redrob, Brend, Wayne and others a penny for your thoughts gentleman?


----------



## wayneL

YT,

Well I'm a technician, so views from that angle... purposely vague views as there are obviously different schools of T/A.

I haven't run an oscillator over the chart, but I just know there will be a bearish divergence. This could mean:

1/ Nothing, it will continue up
2/ Distribution or re-accumulation
3/ It's gonna correct

In other words it will either go up, down, or sideways (really all divergence means is a tapering off of momentum)

I'm out of my futures position (too bloody early) but am still long some miners (FCX, PCU mainly) so hope it continues up. My best *guess* is option 2/ for a bit, and then see.


----------



## rederob

Wayne
Copper has increased 50% in 3 months to date - topped out last week.
Due for a bit of a correction before any significant recovery.
Shanghai inventories are interesting - probably more arbitrage opportunities being taken with deliveries from LME and orders sidetracked to Shanghai for now: Not sure!
What is for certain is the distribution of drawdowns globally - healthy in Europe, US and Asia,
Comex is also trending slowly down - interesting given the general weakness of US manufacturing and housing.
Lord forbid; what will happen if the US kicks into gear again!


----------



## BREND

I think the fall of copper has just started, has advised my clients to be cautious about their long positions on base metals, and also to take up short position on copper. 

China's preliminary trade data due out by early next week may show that copper imports in April fell, maybe even sharply, as price differential of Shanghai Futures Exchange, London Metal Exchange then were unprofitable for imports, analysts and traders say; some estimate that refined copper imports may only top 100,000 tons, vs 202,955 tons in March. Ample supplies, following 483,485 tons of imports in 1Q have been weighing on domestic physical copper price, hence curbing imports.


----------



## michael_selway

BREND said:


> I think the fall of copper has just started, has advised my clients to be cautious about their long positions on base metals, and also to take up short position on copper.
> 
> China's preliminary trade data due out by early next week may show that copper imports in April fell, maybe even sharply, as price differential of Shanghai Futures Exchange, London Metal Exchange then were unprofitable for imports, analysts and traders say; some estimate that refined copper imports may only top 100,000 tons, vs 202,955 tons in March. Ample supplies, following 483,485 tons of imports in 1Q have been weighing on domestic physical copper price, hence curbing imports.




zinc is best basemetal to invest in now, what do u think?

thx

MS


----------



## BREND

michael_selway said:


> zinc is best basemetal to invest in now, what do u think?
> 
> thx
> 
> MS




I had recommended customers to buy zinc futures when it was at $3600/mt level, at $4000 plus level, we had already asked them to take some profit.

If copper price really falls as per my prediction, then it will pull zinc price down as well.

Now we are recommending them to sell Zinc call options $4600 Jun07.


----------



## michael_selway

BREND said:


> I had recommended customers to buy zinc futures when it was at $3600/mt level, at $4000 plus level, we had already asked them to take some profit.
> 
> If copper price really falls as per my prediction, then it will pull zinc price down as well.
> 
> Now we are recommending them to sell Zinc call options $4600 Jun07.




ok thats for "zinc price" in the ST

what about zinc lme warehouse stocks? do yout think they will halve by year end or before?

thx

MS


----------



## BREND

michael_selway said:


> ok thats for "zinc price" in the ST
> 
> what about zinc lme warehouse stocks? do yout think they will halve by year end or before?
> 
> thx
> 
> MS




China may be cancelling tax rebate for export of zinc, so zinc inventory is expected to go down, but how low I don't know. 

I'll look to buy zinc at much lower level, but I'll not short zinc.


----------



## michael_selway

BREND said:


> China may be cancelling tax rebate for export of zinc, so zinc inventory is expected to go down, but how low I don't know.
> 
> I'll look to buy zinc at much lower level, but I'll not short zinc.




ok thx, imo i have a feeling Zinc might do a Nickel or Lead, double in price from a low/correction. Copper may be similar but i suspect it wont mirror these 3. Below is quoted from another site



> This guy has a very positive view on zinc - from an article on the Kitco site - he makes some very worthwhile observations, whether or not you agree with his conclusions.
> 
> Zinc Companies Soar
> 
> By Jason Hommel
> 11 May 2007 at 04:12 AM GMT-04:00
> 
> 
> GRASS VALLEY, Calif. (Silver Stock Report) -- Zinc stocks started soaring, exploding in price this week, starting last Friday, with Apex Silver, up 20%, and others also up 15-20% in the past 5 days. As each stock soared, the stocks had huge volumes, suggesting a powerfully wealthy buyer. The stocks moved up on different days, suggesting a single large fund buying, as if one man was making the decision to buy. The stocks were up nearly the same amount, again suggesting a single buyer. I do not know who this was, nor have I been able to find out.
> 
> Look at the past 5 days' performance of the following zinc stocks:
> 
> SIL - Apex Silver (zinc & silver)
> CZN.TO - Canadian Zinc (zinc & silver)
> MMG - Metalline Mining (zinc & silver)
> PAX.V - Pacifica Resources (zinc only)
> Why is there a sudden rush to buy zinc stocks? Probably because zinc prices are rising as zinc inventories are falling, which started about last month.
> 
> I note that zinc inventories are as low as they were in December, and falling even faster, yet prices are lower. Therefore, zinc prices could head much higher, very quickly, unless something changes.
> 
> Similarly, copper prices started rising, and copper inventories started falling, about 3 months ago.
> 
> I am expecting that both copper and zinc will soon break out to new highs.
> Zinc should rise above the former high of $2.10/lb, and copper should rise above $4.00/lb.
> 
> How high each can go, is just about anyone's guess, but I would not be surprised to see gains of at least about 50-100% higher than the former highs, suggesting $3-4 for zinc, and $6-8 for copper, just for starters. Further gains would be from inflation, which I also expect.
> 
> Now is probably not the time to be timid, but to buy silver and zinc stocks aggressively, before zinc inventories drop further, and before the base metals rise further, to re-establish the long term trends, which are massively up.
> 
> A bullion dealer friend asked me, "How do you know it's not the time to get out, and sell everything?" Good question.
> 
> 1. Because zinc shortages are expected to last at least another year, and get worse over the next ten years.
> 2. Because copper is being imported again by China, which stopped buying for 8 months on the world market, which is the most likely cause of the recent dip in the copper prices.
> 3. Because most of the zinc/copper companies I've been following have still hardly moved up given the rise in the metals prices.
> 4. Because the average zinc/copper stock with a near term production project has a forward P/E ratio of less than 1. If it was more than ten, that would be the first sign of a mania, and a sign of a top.
> 5. Because most of the managements of most of the companies are timid about the rising prices, and are using trailing price averages with much lower prices than current prices.
> 6. Because this is my "job," to pay attention to all of this, full time. I "show up".
> 7. Because this information is still rather hard to come by, and not covered by enough mainstream journalists.
> 8. Because most mainstream journalists, if they even acknowledge the commodity boom, warn about how risky it is, and wonder whether the boom is over.
> 9. Because none of those who warn you to "stay away" were ever there to advise you to "get in" at the bottom.
> 10. Because the industry advisors who said to "get in" at the bottom, are still here, showing the great values in the industry.
> 11. Because very few of the 100's of projects that I've been following have yet come to production, and even if the majority of them go to production, it will not be enough to satisfy the demand.
> 12. Because there are shortages industry-wide, from not enough drillers, or assay labs, or geologists, or engineers, and because miners world wide continue to go on strike to protest their wages not keeping pace with skyrocketing base metals prices.
> 13. Because with declining LME stockpiles, it is almost as if capital itself has also gone on strike.
> 14. Because too few dollars are being spent on stockpiling physical inventories of depleting base metals.
> 15. Because too few dollars are being spent on mining stocks, which need to raise $100's of millions of dollars, and many tens or hundreds of billions collectively, to put their mines into production.
> 16. Because too many dollars are still short the commodities in futures markets, and because too many dollars are invested in futures contracts on commodity markets, instead of being invested in mining. Because paper contract betting, at best, creates "paper gains" and does not generate new physical, base metal production.
> 17. Because too many dollars are being spent on acquisitions and mergers, and not on new projects. Because mergers create "paper gains" and do not generate new physical, base metal production.
> 18. Because commodity booms end when there is too much physical base metal production.
> 
> Why am I so enamored with base metals stocks? Because a funny thing happened in 2003. In the spring/summer of 2003, gold prices took off, and silver prices were sure to follow. Gold stocks had already run up, but silver stocks were still depressed, or unknown. As silver prices rose, the silver stocks soared, right on cue. So, I made gains of 300% in 6 months in silver stocks, buying silver stocks when silver was still at rock bottom.
> 
> Today, base metals prices have taken off. But base metals stocks are still mostly depressed. If you pay attention to "cause and effect" it seems basic to me that these stocks will, and must, soar in price to match, or exceed the gains in base metals that have already been reached, and the gains to come.
> 
> For those of you already positioned, hang tight, or keep researching for more and better stocks in the sector. Don't sell too soon. Get ready for 100% gains, or more, in the next 6-12 months.




thx

MS


----------



## BREND

BREND said:


> I had recommended customers to buy zinc futures when it was at $3600/mt level, at $4000 plus level, we had already asked them to take some profit.
> 
> If copper price really falls as per my prediction, then it will pull zinc price down as well.
> 
> Now we are recommending them to sell Zinc call options $4600 Jun07.




Copper is falling, pulling zinc price down now. 
I'll be interested to buy zinc at $3600 level, but not now.


----------



## CanOz

Isn't interesting how the news is always anything but new.

This was only yesterday:



> Copper Futures Rise Most in a Week After Chinese Imports Surge
> 
> By Millie Munshi
> 
> May 15 (Bloomberg) -- Copper rose the most in a week in New York after imports into China, the world's biggest consumer of the metal, surged 61 percent in the year's first four months.
> 
> China imported 1.08 million metric tons of copper and copper products from January through April, according to preliminary data issued today by the country's Beijing-based customs office. Imports in April jumped 68 percent to 304,672 tons from a year earlier. Copper futures have climbed 23 percent this year on speculation that China's economic growth will boost demand.
> 
> ``Chinese imports have been leading the copper price,'' said Patrick Chidley, an analyst at Barnard Jacobs Mellet LLC in Stamford, Connecticut. ``The real question is whether this demand will continue and where it's going to go from here.''
> 
> Copper futures for July delivery rose 4.05 cents, or 1.2 percent, to $3.5375 a pound on the Comex division of the New York Mercantile Exchange. That's the biggest one-day percentage gain since May 3.
> 
> The price dropped 4.1 percent last week amid speculation that China might have an adequate supply of the metal, used in pipes and wires.
> 
> April imports were down from a record 307,740 tons in March, an indication that China's demand may be starting to wane, Sahil Kapoor, an analyst at Kotak Commodity Service Ltd. in Mumbai, wrote in a report today.
> 
> On the London Metal Exchange, copper for delivery in three months gained $109, or 1.4 percent, to $7,760 a ton. The metal reached a record $8,800 a ton last May.
> 
> A futures contract is an obligation to buy or sell a commodity at a fixed price for delivery by a specific date.
> 
> To contact the reporter on the story: Millie Munshi in New York at




You think this came out on the top of the recent rally?


----------



## BREND

BREND said:


> I think the fall of copper has just started, has advised my clients to be cautious about their long positions on base metals, and also to take up short position on copper.
> 
> China's preliminary trade data due out by early next week may show that copper imports in April fell, maybe even sharply, as price differential of Shanghai Futures Exchange, London Metal Exchange then were unprofitable for imports, analysts and traders say; some estimate that refined copper imports may only top 100,000 tons, vs 202,955 tons in March. Ample supplies, following 483,485 tons of imports in 1Q have been weighing on domestic physical copper price, hence curbing imports.




Copper price has fallen as per my prediction, copper price has fallen $173/mt since then . Double-top formed, looks like copper will continue to fall for the next few days.

See attached for the copper chart:
http://basemetal-trading.blogspot.com/2007/05/review-on-copper-trade_16.html

Had advised clients to buy zinc when it goes to $3600mt, which is still $165 away.


----------



## BREND

Copper futures tumbled in Shanghai to a six-week low on concern that China, the world's biggest consumer of the metal, may be oversupplied following a surge in imports this year and rising domestic output.

China's copper imports reached a record 307,740 metric tons in March, and almost matched that level in April, according to customs data issued May 15. Production of the metal, used in wires and pipes, rose 17 percent in April to a record 274,000 tons, the National Bureau of Statistics said today. The big increase in production will definitely put more pressure on the market.


----------



## YOUNG_TRADER

Getting savaged ATM, almost down 5%


----------



## wayneL

YOUNG_TRADER said:


> Getting savaged ATM, almost down 5%





wayneL said:


> I haven't run an oscillator over the chart, but I just know there will be a bearish divergence.



Chalk one up for the divergence signal... wish I had the gonads to have shorted the futures.  I would be shouting a festive meal with friends right now.


----------



## BREND

BREND said:


> I think the fall of copper has just started, has advised my clients to be cautious about their long positions on base metals, and also to take up short position on copper.
> 
> China's preliminary trade data due out by early next week may show that copper imports in April fell, maybe even sharply, as price differential of Shanghai Futures Exchange, London Metal Exchange then were unprofitable for imports, analysts and traders say; some estimate that refined copper imports may only top 100,000 tons, vs 202,955 tons in March. Ample supplies, following 483,485 tons of imports in 1Q have been weighing on domestic physical copper price, hence curbing imports.




Wayne, then maybe u should consider open trading account with me. I had recommended all my clients to short copper on 15 May 07 when copper is still at $7650/mt and also to take profit on zinc then (when zinc price is still above $4000/mt). 

See copper chart: 
http://basemetal-trading.blogspot.com/2007/05/review-on-copper-trade_17.html


----------



## CanOz

wayneL said:


> Chalk one up for the divergence signal... wish I had the gonads to have shorted the futures.  I would be shouting a festive meal with friends right now.





LOL! Maybe we should start a new thread "Copper to bring down world markets"!

Seriously i wonder what the roll on effects of this will be.

Cheers,


----------



## YOUNG_TRADER

wayneL said:


> Chalk one up for the divergence signal... wish I had the gonads to have shorted the futures.  I would be shouting a festive meal with friends right now.




I sense the force is strong in you, but you are not yet ready to be a Jedi my padowin (See Waynes Avtar) :


----------



## BREND

YOUNG_TRADER said:


> I sense the force is strong in you, but you are not yet ready to be a Jedi my padowin (See Waynes Avtar) :




Haha, its ok, I'm a nobody. Still a student of the market, never stop learning, never stop discover new strategy, to fight the market.


----------



## BREND

Believe that copper that is still going downtrend in the mid-term.
There is a resistance at around $7600 level.

Today I had recommended my clients to buy 1 lot of copper at $7560 (working order)
Stop loss level at $7660
Initial target level at $7400

Margin required USD17,425

Copper short-term chart:
http://basemetal-trading.blogspot.com/2007/05/working-order-for-copper.html


----------



## SXR

Just some info re China they are trying to cut out the middleman.
China boosts Zambia mining investments to $900 mln 


LUSAKA (Reuters) - China has boosted its planned investment to $900 million in Zambia's mineral-rich Copper Belt over the next four years, the government said on Wednesday.

The Ministry of Commerce and Trade said China Nonferrous Metals Corporation (CNMC) president Luo Tao told Zambian authorities that Chinese firms would now add an extra $100 million to the initial $800 million investments planned for the new Chambishi economic zone.

The zone, pioneered by CNMC, is designed to draw investment from scores of Chinese companies in copper and cobalt mining, agriculture and manufacturing to create 60,000 jobs.

Deputy Commerce and Trade Minister Dora Siliya was in China to finalise investment arrangements with firms planning to set up in Zambia starting from this year, the statement said.

A senior Treasury official told Reuters that Chinese firms had shown interest in setting up manufacturing plants, including processing copper into finished products such as cables.

President Levy Mwanawasa said in February after talks with Chinese leader Hu Jintao that his government would create the economic zone in the Copper Belt town of Chambishi, 420 km north of the capital Lusaka, and exempt Chinese firms from import and value added taxes.

Analysts say the move fitted in China's strategy to tap raw materials from African nations in exchange for grants and unconditional loans to the world's poorest continent.


----------



## BREND

Today I advise my clients to short copper at $7400.


----------



## michael_selway

BREND said:


> Copper is falling, pulling zinc price down now.
> I'll be interested to buy zinc at $3600 level, but not now.




hi, imo you appear to be a short term focused investor

would that be correct?

thx

MS


----------



## BREND

michael_selway said:


> hi, imo you appear to be a short term focused investor
> 
> would that be correct?
> 
> thx
> 
> MS




I'm looking at metal futures, not stocks, so I've to be short term focused.


----------



## rederob

Copper inventories at LME are continuing to decline, and cancellation rates are increasing.
No sign yet that a change is about to take place.
If it's China restocking, then the turnaround will be swift.
If it's not, then copper will claim $10k this year - in the last quarter - if stock levels reach former lows.


----------



## wayneL

rederob said:


> then copper will claim $10k this year



Is that per  imperial ton or metric tonne?


----------



## BSD

Copper market forecast to remain in deficit for at least another year (maybe three) by large instos over last week (GSJBW, MBL etc) who have upgraded forward year forecasts by 20%+

Stronger for Longer

They are still hedging bets with long-term quotes under $1.50 though - in my view these forecast falls are BS. Just more wriggle room for future upgrades. 

Apart from booming demand - supply is tight, tight, tight. Chinese have been restocking a bit, but also buying for real demand; they destocked by twice the current LME stockpile last year, FFS

The US housing market has proven a blip and important for alarmists and insular US traders only.

The number of decent copper projects due for production in the next five years could be counted on a hand...

In the short term we are guessing - but stay long the red metal !!!


----------



## rederob

wayneL said:


> Is that per  imperial ton or metric tonne?



Sorry Wayne, I meant AUD$10k
Is that clearer?


----------



## wayneL

rederob said:


> Sorry Wayne, I meant AUD$10k
> Is that clearer?



I'm trying to convert that to USD/lb as per the NYMEX contract.


----------



## BREND

BREND said:


> Today I advise my clients to short copper at $7400.




I'm right again, today copper is trading at $7171, my clients are making tons of money from my recommendations.


----------



## wayneL

BREND said:


> I'm right again, today copper is trading at $7171, my clients are making tons of money from my recommendations.




So by my calcs the LME contract is METRIC tonnes (approx. 2,200 lbs), yes?


----------



## BREND

wayneL said:


> So by my calcs the LME contract is METRIC tonnes (approx. 2,200 lbs), yes?




I'm not sure what you are asking. 
Copper inventory is now 130,250mt, 1 lot of copper futures has 25mt of copper.


----------



## wayneL

BREND said:


> I'm right again, today copper is trading at $7171, my clients are making tons of money from my recommendations.



Hang on a minute,

According to my NYMEX data, that price was not traded at on the 23rd (the day you posted that)... only a few trades yesterday traded at that (the equivalent of) price, or the the 22nd.

Care to elaborate?


----------



## >Apocalypto<

BREND said:


> I'm looking at metal futures, not stocks, so I've to be short term focused.




Gann didn't.......... 

you can still trade futures with a longer term view.


----------



## wayneL

BREND said:


> I'm not sure what you are asking.
> Copper inventory is now 130,250mt, 1 lot of copper futures has 25mt of copper.




NYMEX contract is priced in USD per pound
LME contract is priced in USD per tonne

My question was whether is was imperial tons (2000lbs) or metric tonnes (~2,200 lbs)

I've now figured it out for myself.

Cheers


----------



## BREND

wayneL said:


> Hang on a minute,
> 
> According to my NYMEX data, that price was not traded at on the 23rd (the day you posted that)... only a few trades yesterday traded at that (the equivalent of) price, or the the 22nd.
> 
> Care to elaborate?




My market is London Metal Exchange, not Nymex. Did you get it correct?


----------



## wayneL

BREND said:


> My market is London Metal Exchange, not Nymex. Did you get it correct?



Yes, but there must be correlation otherwise the arbitragers would be all over it like a rash and close the difference in a heartbeat.

Got a chart of the LME trades on the 23rd?


----------



## rederob

wayneL said:


> NYMEX contract is priced in USD per pound
> LME contract is priced in USD per tonne
> 
> My question was whether is was imperial tons (2000lbs) or metric tonnes (~2,200 lbs)
> 
> I've now figured it out for myself.
> 
> Cheers



Wayne
Apologies for the belated reply.
I thought your original question was a trick question as there is little difference between an imperial ton (2240lbs) and a metric tonne (2204lbs) - while there is a huge difference between those and a *short ton *(the 2000lbs "ton" that is the US standard).

Any arbitrage opportunity is clearly based on the common denominator of "one pound", which does not vary across continents and is the basis of "pricing" the metal.


----------



## YOUNG_TRADER

rederob said:


> Copper inventories at LME are continuing to decline, and cancellation rates are increasing.
> No sign yet that a change is about to take place.
> If it's China restocking, then the turnaround will be swift.
> If it's not, then copper will claim $10k this year - in the last quarter - if stock levels reach former lows.




I see the same thing, re the continued copper draw downs, LME will be below 100kt's in 15 days at this rate!
Then it should be game on!


----------



## rederob

YOUNG_TRADER said:


> I see the same thing, re the continued copper draw downs, LME will be below 100kt's in 15 days at this rate!
> Then it should be game on!



Note that only copper inventories fell at LME warehouses overnight, with cancellation rates remaining quite robust.
Note also that copper inventories are falling at COMEX warehouses, albeit relatively steadily.
Into the next half the copper story will unfold based on concentrate availability, which already is looking a bit dodgy.  My suspicion is that copper prices will not decline to any significant degree unless concentrate availability improves markedly: Presently there are no suggestions this will occur within this year.
Without concentrates, Chinese smelters will quickly run down refined inventories and, as YT puts it, it's "game on".


----------



## >Apocalypto<

I think Brend needs to reply to Wayne's Q and post a chart clearing up the issue about that price & date


----------



## BREND

Trade_It said:


> I think Brend needs to reply to Wayne's Q and post a chart clearing up the issue about that price & date




Sure, is it so important? I thought my prediction on the direction has already proven to be right? 

I have asked my client to place a limit order, the price did not reach there. But market order was done at lower level, price comes down, my clients buy back to take profit, still make money. My clients bought back at $7170 yesterday, you can check if this price is traded yesterday.

I've asked my clients to short zinc at $3700 today. If zinc does not reach this level, but still come down from $3670, I'll still ask my clients to execute a market, and short zinc.


----------



## >Apocalypto<

BREND said:


> Sure, is it so important? I thought my prediction on the direction has already proven to be right?
> 
> I have asked my client to place a limit order, the price did not reach there. But market order was done at lower level, price comes down, my clients buy back to take profit, still make money. My clients bought back at $7170 yesterday, you can check if this price is traded yesterday.
> 
> I've asked my clients to short zinc at $3700 today. If zinc does not reach this level, but still come down from $3670, I'll still ask my clients to execute a market, and short zinc.




That's great,

surely you have a chart to post with that date, so why not post it


----------



## wayneL

rederob said:


> Wayne
> Apologies for the belated reply.
> I thought your original question was a trick question as there is little difference between an imperial ton (2240lbs) and a metric tonne (2204lbs) - while there is a huge difference between those and a *short ton *(the 2000lbs "ton" that is the US standard).
> 
> Any arbitrage opportunity is clearly based on the common denominator of "one pound", which does not vary across continents and is the basis of "pricing" the metal.



Ahh!

Thats where I was getting confused. Didn't realize there was a short ton and long ton.

All clear now.


----------



## YOUNG_TRADER

wayneL said:


> Ahh!
> 
> Thats where I was getting confused. Didn't realize there was a short ton and long ton.
> 
> All clear now.




Hey Wayne, 

Just curious why is the year 1984? 

I was born in 1984


----------



## wayneL

YOUNG_TRADER said:


> Hey Wayne,
> 
> Just curious why is the year 1984?
> 
> I was born in 1984




Nineteen Eighty Four by George Orwell


----------



## CanOz

rederob said:


> Note that only copper inventories fell at LME warehouses overnight, with cancellation rates remaining quite robust.
> Note also that copper inventories are falling at COMEX warehouses, albeit relatively steadily.
> Into the next half the copper story will unfold based on concentrate availability, which already is looking a bit dodgy.  My suspicion is that copper prices will not decline to any significant degree unless concentrate availability improves markedly: Presently there are no suggestions this will occur within this year.
> Without concentrates, Chinese smelters will quickly run down refined inventories and, as YT puts it, it's "game on".




Another bullish note for copper is the COT report, obviously not an indicator on its own but....

The commercials are increasing thier net long positions, from a decrease in net longs recently....and opposite to this is the funds, and they are increasing thier net shorts....usually a bullish sign.

Rederob or YT do you use this?

http://www.upperman.com/mprof/p57.gif

Will be an updated graph tomorrow morning i think.


Cheers,


----------



## BREND

I may ask clients to short copper today at $7420, depending on the weekly Shanghai copper inventory announcement, and the market's response to the announcement.


----------



## BREND

My view on copper changes 180 degree today, turn bullish now.


----------



## Crafty

YOUNG_TRADER said:


> Hey Wayne,
> 
> Just curious why is the year 1984?
> 
> I was born in 1984





Wow, you are a young trader...


----------



## rederob

CanOz said:


> Another bullish note for copper is the COT report, obviously not an indicator on its own but....
> 
> The commercials are increasing thier net long positions, from a decrease in net longs recently....and opposite to this is the funds, and they are increasing thier net shorts....usually a bullish sign.
> 
> Rederob or YT do you use this?
> 
> http://www.upperman.com/mprof/p57.gif
> 
> Will be an updated graph tomorrow morning i think.
> 
> 
> Cheers,



\
can'uck
I only use the COT to confirm the nature of a trend.
The tide on copper turned a while back, and this was later confirmed by the COT data.
If you have a close look at the data that underpins daily COT reports I don't think you would be relying on anything there as a basis for investing, or even short term trading.
A more reliable basis for trading would be the changes to short and long dated contracts.
However, I find it easier to monitor global warehouse data for an idea of what's happening.
For example, we know from LME and Comex data that US copper inventories are declining, and that cancellation rates are robust.
Whereas we also know that LME's Asian warehouses are in relative balance, while Shanghai is in solid restocking.  
The implication is that China is restocking refined metal, possibly in anticipation of a concentrate deficit.
European warehouses have restocked a little, but are not showing signs of an increasing trend.
Leaving us overall with a copper market that is on edge, tipping neither one way or another.  But giving each way bettors a chance on being in the money.


----------



## YOUNG_TRADER

wayneL said:


> Nineteen Eighty Four by George Orwell




I see Commarade! 

I suppose ASF is the new Animal Farm? :




BREND said:


> My view on copper changes 180 degree today, turn bullish now.




Why? 




Crafty said:


> Wow, you are a young trader...




Not as young as I once was, sighhhhhhh


----------



## legs

6mth copper stocks. Lets see what happens in the next few weeks...it has to at least stay strong or increase, surely... any thoughts???????????????????????????????????????????????


----------



## BREND

legs said:


> 6mth copper stocks. Lets see what happens in the next few weeks...it has to at least stay strong or increase, surely... any thoughts???????????????????????????????????????????????




Should be down.


----------



## >Apocalypto<

BREND said:


> Should be down.




your bullish or bearish? you were 180 degrees up a post or two ago.

Brend you have charts to back up your thoughts? you claimed to use T/A, I post a chart when i make my view on direction.

would love to see your decisions on your charts.


----------



## BREND

Trade_It said:


> your bullish or bearish? you were 180 degrees up a post or two ago.
> 
> Brend you have charts to back up your thoughts? you claimed to use T/A, I post a chart when i make my view on direction.
> 
> would love to see your decisions on your charts.




Hi Trade_It, when I say "should be down", I'm referring to the inventory level, not the price.

Copper chart is breaking out of short-term downtrend, and Head & Shoulders formation is almost fully formed:
http://basemetal-trading.blogspot.com/2007/06/copper-reversal-signal-is-formed.html

Do you trade copper futures or equities?


----------



## legs

BREND said:


> Should be down.




stocks down or price??? i was referring to price.


----------



## >Apocalypto<

BREND said:


> Hi Trade_It, when I say "should be down", I'm referring to the inventory level, not the price.
> 
> Copper chart is breaking out of short-term downtrend, and Head & Shoulders formation is almost fully formed:
> http://basemetal-trading.blogspot.com/2007/06/copper-reversal-signal-is-formed.html
> 
> Do you trade copper futures or equities?





ok got you.

did you post that chart on the blog? if you did could u post those charts with explanation on the ASF as here we all like to learn.

I trade CFD's on commodities, Indexes, shares, FX and anything that looks like it could make me money.

I have not bought a actual copper future but I have traded CFD's over the brown metal.

Brend some of your trade ideas cut very close to the It margin do you use very aggressive trailing stops? If you do do you get stopped out on the goods one that retrace a fair bit & renter?


----------



## BREND

Trade_It said:


> ok got you.
> 
> did you post that chart on the blog? if you did could u post those charts with explanation on the ASF as here we all like to learn.
> 
> I trade CFD's on commodities, Indexes, shares, FX and anything that looks like it could make me money.
> 
> I have not bought a actual copper future but I have traded CFD's over the brown metal.
> 
> Brend some of your trade ideas cut very close to the It margin do you use very aggressive trailing stops? If you do do you get stopped out on the goods one that retrace a fair bit & renter?




I'm not qualified to teach.


----------



## >Apocalypto<

BREND said:


> I'm not qualified to teach.




LOL I am a competent chartist Brend.

What I mean is that it's good to post your charts so others can see what your doing and learn from your posts. And correct advise you on what your doing or could do better, Not teaching so to speak.


----------



## BREND

BREND said:


> My view on copper changes 180 degree today, turn bullish now.




London Metal Exchange copper prices were steady on Monday, with falling inventories and a potential strike in Mexico supporting the market, analysts said.

‘The fundamentals look quite good, the LME inventories are continuing to fall and over the last few weeks we have seen declines in Chinese inventories as well,’ analyst Kevin Norrish at Barclays Capital said.

Copper for delivery in three months MCU3 was up $20 at $7,470/7,485 a tonne by 0959 GMT after gaining 1.1 percent in the previous session.

LME copper stocks fell by 3,550 tonnes to 123,900, the lowest since late October 2006 and down by some 40 percent since the beginning of February this year. LME/STX1

Shanghai stocks fell 4 percent to 95,254 tonnes last week.

I had turned bullish after seeing Shanghai stocks fell so much last Friday, advise my clients to take up long positions on copper, they make more money again today.


----------



## wayneL

YOUNG_TRADER said:


> I see Commarade!
> I suppose ASF is the new Animal Farm? :



Well I suppose it is full of bulls and bears... :


----------



## BREND

World copper demand will probably rise 4.7 percent because of increasing consumption in China, where usage tripled in the past decade, the International Lead & Zinc Study Group said.	

“Copper mine output will probably rise 6.3 percent this year and 7 percent next year,'' Paul White, head of forecasting and statistics at the Lisbon-based group, said today in a presentation in Windhoek, Namibia.

In my view, there is a possibility of copper going back to $8000 level.
I'll continue to ask my clients to buy copper futures on dips.


----------



## CanOz

BREND said:


> World copper demand will probably rise 4.7 percent because of increasing consumption in China, where usage tripled in the past decade, the International Lead & Zinc Study Group said.
> 
> “Copper mine output will probably rise 6.3 percent this year and 7 percent next year,'' Paul White, head of forecasting and statistics at the Lisbon-based group, said today in a presentation in Windhoek, Namibia.
> 
> In my view, there is a possibility of copper going back to $8000 level.
> I'll continue to ask my clients to buy copper futures on dips.




This thing has an uncanny knack of filling gaps...


----------



## Nick Radge

Here are my comments from a few days ago, including the seasonal tendencies:



*BOTTOM LINE 
6/6:*
EW Trend: Corrective
Price Trend: Down
Trend Strength: Weak
Broker Consensus: n/a
*23/5:*
EW Trend: Corrective
Price Trend: Down
Trend Strength: Strong
Broker Consensus: n/a

*LAYMANS ANALYSIS 
6/6:*
VIDEO ANALYSIS (2 mins 16 secs)
I mentioned in last nights review of BHP Billiton that I was not yet convinced that Copper was going to storm higher just yet so I thought I'd put forward my argument tonight. I do believe Copper will eventually go higher, but I'm concerned that we may have another leg lower toward 300.0 beforehand. The yellow ellipse on the above chart is the "typical" area that the market returns to at this part of the trend. When we do not reach that level we are left with two conclusions; firstly that the declining pattern that is expected has not yet completed. Because the patterns we follow have a useful amount of prior observations with accurate conclusions, it makes sense to use these as our template for working forward. This template suggests another round of weakness is expected. However, the second conclusion, and one that in these market conditions cannot be discounted, is that the trend is simply too powerful to allow the typical retracement occur. This conclusion can only be confirmed by prices advancing and exceeding the recent highs set on 4 May. That scenario is potently bullish. On the flipside it would take a move back below the lows set in February to break the larger bullish outlook. 
*23/5:*
VIDEO ANALYSIS (1 mins 36 secs)
I mentioned in my last review that Copper was at an important "make or break" level. It broke lower through the important 347.5 level and should continue to unfold lower over the coming weeks toward the 300.0 area. This area represents the typical retracement zone for the next part of the trend as well as being an important, albeit not obvious, support level. Today is actually the start of a brief seasonal upward shift that tends to last till early June before more weakness sets in. As such we may see a continued bounce, although we have seen that small gap filled and nicely rejected last session. That is certainly a concern for any further immediate strength. Even so, any strength over the coming days would be a selling opportunity and a pre-cursor to further weakness. I cannot get bullish at this stage until we break up into new highs. Until then, down.

*TECHNICAL DISCUSSION 
6/6:*
We discussed the filling the gap in the last review and that has now completed. We should theoretically look at the recent strength as a wave-b and therefore expect a rejection somewhere here for wave-c lower to unfold. The ellipse highlights the 50.0% to 61.8% retracement zone which stands at 311.0 down to 294.0. The wave-a/wave-c equidistant level is a little lower than typical at 285.0. This level is possible but would take the shine off the upward momentum. This current move up is exactly 50.0% of the wave-a decline and it does fill the gap without breaching the prior gap down bar. This is the usual area for the termination of wave-b. Yesterdays volume is not yet available but it was a tight range with low close. If we see that volume was high then we have further evidence that we're seeing a wave-b here and that another wave lower is nearby. Any break to new highs would mean the recent lows will become a wave-2 and we'd then expect a substantial move to the upside over the coming months. 
*23/5:*
I had 347.5 marked as wave-a or -4. The break into new highs and subsequent reversal back through 347.5 signalled it as a wave-4 and therefore the recent highs as a wave-5. Now we should expect a 3-wave corrective move that will retrace 50.0% to 61.8% of these recent trend higher. That zone aligns us with the 300.0 support level that extends well back into last year. It's unlikely that the strength over the last few sessions (ex-last session) is a wave-b. I would expect that we may see a more pronounced wave-b before the wave-c rot sets in, so just be careful of another quick leg higher. Seasonal weakness starts on June 1 and extends through to mid-June which may be the timing zone for wave-c. We've been mentioning that OXR and BHP would also show some weakness shortly and that any strength prior could be a bull trap.


_This post may contain advice that has been prepared by Reef Capital Coaching ABN 24 092 309 978 (“RCC”) and is general advice and does not take account of your objectives, financial situation or needs. Before acting on this general advice you should therefore consider the appropriateness of the advice having regard to your situation. We recommend you obtain financial, legal and taxation advice before making any financial investment decision._


----------



## rederob

Nick
An excellent analysis.
From a fundamental viewpoint, there is likely to be a longer consolidation around present levels as there remains adequate copper inventory, but low concentrates.
When the concentrates issue is resolved, the funds will work out whether or not to stay in or take money off the table.
Either way, the supercycle scenario has lost no traction over the past 5 years.


----------



## legs

copper up 2.9% tonight so far...................................


----------



## delta05

There is a lot of talk about copper consumption based on current trends, US housing etc..  However it would make sense that with all the talk about climate change increasing demand for alternative methods of generating power, hybrid cars etc. that there is a very real possibility that copper consumtion may increase significantly due to increased demand through these emerging comsumers.  Wind power, solar, biomass methods of power generation would all use higher amounts of copper per kilo watt produced.  Electric powered or hybrid cars are also a signifiacnt emerging consumer.


----------



## YOUNG_TRADER

Ding Ding Ding!

Copper stock levels have fallen below the 100k t level
Zinc and lead are wayy low too, the end of the commodities bull/ I don't think so! 


London Metal Exchange Warehouse Stocks 
( July 11 ) 
Metal Tonnes in Storage Change from
previous day 
Aluminum 829750 +1950  
*Copper 99350 -1025  *
Nickel 10080 +126  
Lead 42925 -125  
Zinc 69825 -525


----------



## dumpty

Funny you say that....i have been watching cuo and cdu with interest for several weeks as alternates to ories

What's you thoughts....


----------



## ta2693

I heard a very very good news for copper company which will make the copper price going up in next 3-5 years. 
China is going to invest 1000billion RMB to improve its electricity transfer network in the following 5 years. It is about 150 billion Aussie dollar investment. It is not hard to imagining how many copper China will need in the 3 to 5 years future. it will change the relationship of supply and demand dramatically and push the copper price to a new level.and copper is a topic very easy to make normal ppl excited.
I find the Investos are accumulating all companies shares in copper industry including tmr, cdu. rbm. 

Does anyone know what company is the current producer of copper and the one with world class copper deposit in Australia and in the world? Thank you in advance.


The resource of the news is very reliable.It is in Chinese. 
It would be announced by Chinese government soon. the market reaction will be dramatic. 
http://news.cnfol.com/070709/101,1280,3138707,00.shtml


----------



## cmh888

The following website details copper production companies - Not all are publicly listed though. http://www.ame.com.au/companies/cu/companies.htm 

My dollar is on Oxiana (OXR) and Matrix Metals (MRX).


----------



## petervan

Watched the insiders this morning and was interested to hear the boss of RIO say they believe till 2015 that China will grow at 9% per year. I,m yet to here a strong arguement against this level of growth.Great news for developing mid tier copper miners like my old favorite EQN. Be interesting to watch how long it takes to catch up to OXR in market value.OXR 6 billion EQN 2.7 billion.


----------



## CanOz

ta2693 said:


> I heard a very very good news for copper company which will make the copper price going up in next 3-5 years.
> China is going to invest 1000billion RMB to improve its electricity transfer network in the following 5 years. It is about 150 billion Aussie dollar investment. It is not hard to imagining how many copper China will need in the 3 to 5 years future. it will change the relationship of supply and demand dramatically and push the copper price to a new level.and copper is a topic very easy to make normal ppl excited.
> I find the Investos are accumulating all companies shares in copper industry including tmr, cdu. rbm.
> 
> Does anyone know what company is the current producer of copper and the one with world class copper deposit in Australia and in the world? Thank you in advance.
> 
> 
> 
> The resource of the news is very reliable.It is in Chinese.
> It would be announced by Chinese government soon. the market reaction will be dramatic.
> http://news.cnfol.com/070709/101,1280,3138707,00.shtml





In addition to copper, did you realise that aluminum is one of the choice conductors for high voltage lines? Its lighter than copper, enabling a variety of wieght sensitive applications.

Cheers,


----------



## ta2693

CanOz said:


> In addition to copper, did you realise that aluminum is one of the choice conductors for high voltage lines? Its lighter than copper, enabling a variety of wieght sensitive applications.
> 
> Cheers,




After research, I find the high voltage transfer line is made of Al alloys in China. So maybe Al company could benefit more from this news.
What company is current Al producer or potential Al producer in ASX except RIO?


----------



## YOUNG_TRADER

ta2693 said:


> After research, I find the high voltage transfer line is made of Al alloys in China. So maybe Al company could benefit more from this news.
> What company is current Al producer or potential Al producer in ASX except RIO?




Alcan/Alcoa, probably why RIO is making a move


----------



## 56gsa

ta2693 said:


> After research, I find the high voltage transfer line is made of Al alloys in China. So maybe Al company could benefit more from this news.
> What company is current Al producer or potential Al producer in ASX except RIO?




AWC Alumina Ltd - currently running into blue sky


----------



## Wysiwyg

Just looking at the base mental prices for copper and so on and no direct affect from the DOW overnight decline.Is there no connection?Or is there a lag on reaction time?A double top maybe?



Copper July 26,20:10 
Bid/Ask 3.6114 - 3.6250 
Change +0.0023  +0.06% 
Low/High 3.6092 - 3.6591


----------



## 56gsa

Wysiwyg said:


> Just looking at the base mental prices for copper and so on and no direct affect from the DOW overnight decline.Is there no connection?Or is there a lag on reaction time?A double top maybe?




was the "mental prices" a freudian slip ??  like it - and yes - could well be a double top - or it may take a triple - ABN have just put out one of their reearch notes on their model for copper (these models are pretty good for commodities explaining over 80% of price movement)

link is here

https://www.abnamromorgans.com.au/index.cfm?objectid=D8C54D20-BDB6-A373-4C38456433A58B62&ID=75341b39%2Ded16%2D488f%2D97ae%2D3c9ca01d8b1c

or if that doesn't work - conclusion was...



> Conclusion
> A major decline in the stocks to consumption ratio of copper justified a
> dramatic increase in the copper price between 2002 and 2005. The
> following year 2006 saw a volatile pattern of trading with the copper price
> rising rapidly into overvalued territory and then collapsing. Our model of the
> copper price suggests that copper appears to be repeating its 2006 behaviour
> in 2007.
> A sharp fall in the beginning of the year is being followed by a rally into
> significantly overvalued territory. Currently the equilibrium price of copper is
> $US6,635 per tonne. We expect copper to decline towards that value around
> year end.


----------



## 56gsa

this outlook differs from the one above - although the copper LME stocks have jumped in the warehouse closest to China

http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601012&sid=aQ3e7ePv8ebk&refer=commodities


----------

