# BP a long term BUY?



## baby_swallow (10 June 2010)

BP Plc (British Petroleum, LSE:BP, NYSE:BP), is looking more like one of those stocks that you buy and forget.... It's just a matter of time when they find a solution for this mess the stock will skyrocket I reckon.


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## nomore4s (10 June 2010)

baby_swallow said:


> BP Plc (British Petroleum, LSE:BP, NYSE:BP), is looking more like one of those stocks that you buy and forget.... It's just a matter of time when they find a solution for this mess the stock will skyrocket I reckon.




Unless they end up in bankruptcy court.

http://news.yahoo.com/s/ynews/20100608/bs_ynews/ynews_bs2461
http://curiouscapitalist.blogs.time.com/2010/06/09/is-bp-headed-for-bankruptcy/?xid=rss-topstories


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## dutchie (10 June 2010)

The cost of cleaning up this mess physically, emotionally, economically and politically, will be huge.


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## Bigukraine (10 June 2010)

not with my money , the damage i fear could be terminal for this co. and agree imo kaput :fan:flush:


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## Timmy (10 June 2010)

The only reason the BP share is price falling is because of evil short-sellers.
:


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## wayneL (10 June 2010)

If you think it's worth a punt, an ideal options spread play.


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## freddy2 (10 June 2010)

This is a great long term buy. BP is unlikely to go bankrupt, instead of reacting on emotions look at the figures. US$30B before tax in yearly earnings and US$100B in net assets. With a market cap of US$90B this is a great risk/reward opportunity.


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## nomore4s (10 June 2010)

freddy2 said:


> This is a great long term buy. BP is unlikely to go bankrupt, instead of reacting on emotions look at the figures. US$30B before tax in yearly earnings and US$100B in net assets. With a market cap of US$90B this is a great risk/reward opportunity.




The question is - How much cheaper is it going to get first?

I also agree that it would be doubtful that they will go bankrupt but you never know and I would like to see how much this all costs them first.


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## jojoventure (10 June 2010)

I think this disaster can have quite a bad effect in the medium term , such as loss of customers and a massive amount of lawsuits against them. The government might even do something drastic against BP eventually, especially if there is a change of power in the whitehouse. 
I hence think its not cheap enough to take on so much risk yet.

An option strategy would probably be a good punt, such as a strip a straddle or strangle.
I fear that such a strategy would be ridicously expensive though, especially for options for something longer then a year. 

As anybody been corageous enough to undertake such a strategy?


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## wayneL (10 June 2010)

jojoventure said:


> I think this disaster can have quite a bad effect in the medium term , such as loss of customers and a massive amount of lawsuits against them. The government might even do something drastic against BP eventually, especially if there is a change of power in the whitehouse.
> I hence think its not cheap enough to take on so much risk yet.
> 
> An option strategy would probably be a good punt, such as a strip a straddle or strangle.
> ...




I personally wouldn't go long gamma under the current vol.

My thinking is a base strategy of a vertical spread with some morphing as things develop. But there are lots of ideas that can be used.


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## drsmith (10 June 2010)

Is the spill a one off or does it reflect more fundamental issues with the corporate culture within BP itself ?

That's the first question that comes to mind.


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## frankie_boy (10 June 2010)

BP is plagued with these problems...

A Shell merger down the track...


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