# Frexit - The French Election and possible referendum



## CanOz (22 April 2017)

How is everyone trading the French Election? After the Brexit vote at least i have some idea how to research and trade an election, unfortunately i have to work until noonish.

How is everyone trading the news on the day?

Two main currencies to consider:

6E (Euro) - direct impact
-Sell off if Le Pen elected?

6J (Yen) - Risk off trade
-Rally if Le Pen elected?


Things to consider:
1.) voter turnout
2.) vote counted and results at market open
3.) gap open up/down
4.) where is the crowded trade

Looking forward to more discussion. Will come back as time permits.


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## Quant (22 April 2017)

CanOz said:


> How is everyone trading the French Election? After the Brexit vote at least i have some idea how to research and trade an election, unfortunately i have to work until noonish.
> 
> How is everyone trading the news on the day?
> 
> ...



1 and 2 not on my radar at all and 4 dominates 3 . My MO trade normal patterns just be greedy at extremes due to explosive volatility , bigger ranges on smaller size , just another day for me


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## kid hustlr (22 April 2017)

I'm not expecting the same impact as Brexit. Markets have been balancing so this may provide a reason to break one way or the other.

Last 2 big political events have been huge reversal moves - given my point above and Murphy's law if this thing does break I think going with it is the play.


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## cynic (22 April 2017)

My dacks are just a teensy bit on the short side. A sizeable gap is fairly typical of these events, the question of whether it is to the upside or downside and whether there is subsequent continuation or reversal, is another matter upon which I am reluctant to predict and shall simply be playing it as I see it on the day.


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## CanOz (22 April 2017)

From what I've read and heard so far, the results are going to be partially counted by the time the markets open. I think its 7:00 am Brisbane time that the CME products open. 

Hour by Hour


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## CanOz (22 April 2017)

Right oh, here's my 2 cents on the status of the yen and the euro from an auction market pov....

Two charts, both with a long term composite and a range profile.

Euro - path of least resistance is up, to the value area higher 
Yen - path of least resistance is down towards the value area


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## qldfrog (23 April 2017)

My guess is LePen has no chance to win the second round and even if she did she would never have power to do anything (no parliament majority)
But in the same way as i was right before Brexit and Trump, this resulted in no gain for me as the market reacted counter my guess (no gold boom, no market crash) so no I do not expect any reaction, but for the volatility (I am not interested in) in the days around.
If the market crash happens, it will be blame on the election, buty in my opinion, it will be just timing


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## CanOz (23 April 2017)

qldfrog said:


> My guess is LePen has no chance to win the second round and even if she did she would never have power to do anything (no parliament majority)
> But in the same way as i was right before Brexit and Trump, this resulted in no gain for me as the market reacted counter my guess (no gold boom, no market crash) so no I do not expect any reaction, but for the volatility (I am not interested in) in the days around.
> If the market crash happens, it will be blame on the election, buty in my opinion, it will be just timing




Yeah not expecting "THE market crash", i'm sure that will happen in time, as they always do....


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## docseller (23 April 2017)

LePen its not time for you now


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## qldfrog (23 April 2017)

docseller said:


> LePen its not time for you now



Never will be .Fance had its chance to stop its annihilation 30y ago, and did not take it .too late now.


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## qldfrog (24 April 2017)

expected results:80% participation ..as high as can be and LePen and Macron in second round,so Macron next president..
A socialist badly disguised, who will manage to have a communist asking to vote for him..an investment banker ....Smart guy
More of the same ahead..market can sleep easy, and  France carry on its downward spiral smoothly


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## qldfrog (24 April 2017)

if I may:
 https://www.facebook.com/JonathanPieReporter/videos/1201146553341569/


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## MARKETWINNER (24 April 2017)

After French election, in the currency market the euro jumped the most since December and the yen retreated. In the mean time U.S. stock-index futures also gained but Gold dropped considerably.

http://www.stuff.co.nz/world/europe...-le-pen-qualify-for-second-round--projections


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## MARKETWINNER (25 April 2017)

https://www.theguardian.com/busines...after-french-election-result?CMP=share_btn_tw


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## CanOz (27 April 2017)

Looks like Trumps tax deal is a flop with no details on who'll pay for the cuts.....market doesn't like it....


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## Quant (27 April 2017)

CanOz said:


> Looks like Trumps tax deal is a flop with no details on who'll pay for the cuts.....market doesn't like it....



Yeah it looking the classic buy the rumour sell the news , the Orange Oracle is finding politics not as binary as business


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## CanOz (27 April 2017)

Double top quant?


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## MARKETWINNER (2 May 2017)

https://www.theguardian.com/world/french-presidential-election-2017

http://www.20minutes.fr/elections/p...-macron-devancerait-pen-59-voix-selon-sondage


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## mullokintyre (12 April 2022)

qldfrog said:


> My guess is LePen has no chance to win the second round and even if she did she would never have power to do anything (no parliament majority)
> But in the same way as i was right before Brexit and Trump, this resulted in no gain for me as the market reacted counter my guess (no gold boom, no market crash) so no I do not expect any reaction, but for the volatility (I am not interested in) in the days around.
> If the market crash happens, it will be blame on the election, buty in my opinion, it will be just timing



History looks like repeating.
From ABC News 
Macron  with 27% of the vote and Le Pen with 24% will face off once again for the presidential runoffs.
All of the losing first round contenders have urged their supporters to back Macron, so Le Pen may end up the bridesmaid again.
Mick


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## Garpal Gumnut (12 April 2022)

mullokintyre said:


> History looks like repeating.
> From ABC News
> Macron  with 27% of the vote and Le Pen with 24% will face off once again for the presidential runoffs.
> All of the losing first round contenders have urged their supporters to back Macron, so Le Pen may end up the bridesmaid again.
> Mick



This is a worldwide phenomenon. 

Metropolitan vs Regional voters. 

I believe you are correct. I've a few euros on Macron through a very reliable person in Calabria. 

Here the minor parties regionally will provide a hung parliament, better for the regions, none of yer Rooarch nor Greenie rubbish from the Libs nor ALP. 

gg


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## divs4ever (12 April 2022)

i will hoping for le Penn ( and not because she is prettier than Macron )

 if they vote Macron again they ( France deserve their fate  , because Germany is liable to implode worse than Greece and Cyprus did )


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## qldfrog (12 April 2022)

divs4ever said:


> i will hoping for le Penn ( and not because she is prettier than Macron )
> 
> if they vote Macron again they ( France deserve their fate  , because Germany is liable to implode worse than Greece and Cyprus did )



Macron is the Reset candidate, Davos link, worked for Rothschild,alumni of wef Forum of Young Global Leaders.
Went from socialist to right,anything to be in power.
Le Pen is anti globalisation and proud of her country, Reset can not allow Le Pen to win.
If they managed to push Trump in the US, no problem to keep Macron in France, even if a bit of imaginative counting is required.


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## qldfrog (12 April 2022)

mullokintyre said:


> History looks like repeating.
> From ABC News
> Macron  with 27% of the vote and Le Pen with 24% will face off once again for the presidential runoffs.
> All of the losing first round contenders have urged their supporters to back Macron, so Le Pen may end up the bridesmaid again.
> Mick



Actually not 100% true, Zemmour with 7% is backing Le Pen but that will not be enough


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## qldfrog (12 April 2022)

divs4ever said:


> i will hoping for le Penn ( and not because she is prettier than Macron )
> 
> if they vote Macron again they ( France deserve their fate  , because Germany is liable to implode worse than Greece and Cyprus did )



And French people fo deserve their fate: they have made no strong move against migration and europe for 40y, so they live in their happy socialist  lala land..just pity the minority who tried to change....


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## mullokintyre (20 April 2022)

Le Pen must be getting closer to the incumbent macron in the polls.
Why else would the EU drag out 18 year old embezzlement charges against Le Pen right before the next runoff.
From David Icke


> *Presumably as part of a deliberate effort to derail her presidential chances, the European Union has exhumed 18-year-old embezzlement charges against Marine Le Pen.*
> 
> “The EU’s anti-fraud body has accused French far-right leader Marine Le Pen and associates of embezzling around 600,000 euros during their time as MEPs,” reports AFP.
> 
> ...



The first sentence is arguable, they have no proof of the EU motive, but it sure makes for a highly suspicious coincidence.
These  allegation  have been around for well over a decade, and surface at every election, but no charges have ever been laid by authorities.
It looks like political interference, smells like political interference, sound like political interference, but its actually a duck.
Mick


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## divs4ever (20 April 2022)

considering the previous activities of Ms Lagarde , i would have thought such allegations would be trivial  , but heck standards work great when they are doubled


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## qldfrog (20 April 2022)

If you add up all the scores of the candidates in the first round which do not want of the EU,you end up well above 60%.
The EU institutions which are the deep state for Europe, unelected, responding to no one, have no choice but to push the WEF alumniMacron.
The EU can not afford for Macron to lose so he will not, at all costs like Biden, but frexit will be in the mind of a huge majority of citizens.once reelected a deepening of sanction on Russia will bring the EU to its knees.it will be interesting time to see how well the west has learnt from China in term of oppressive population management.


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## Dona Ferentes (25 April 2022)

*Emmanuel Macron has won five more years as French president after a convincing victory over rival Marine Le Pen, who nevertheless secured the far right's highest share of the vote yet.*
He won by 58.55% to 41.45% (in the second round), a greater margin than expected.


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## divs4ever (25 April 2022)

more unrest  to come then


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## qldfrog (25 April 2022)

divs4ever said:


> more unrest  to come then



You will not hear from these or 2ill have a martial law sorry lockdown due to a new pollen hay fever jump in hospital.
Macron no surprise, reelected but only managed to get 58% of vote, note that great vondidering all parti but lepen ask to vote for him 
Zemour another nationalist anti globalist an individual wo party,  was the only siding with Lepen.
An interesting phase will be the coming parliament election where if votes reflect the presidential vote, le pen and the far left and voice of muslims have the majority if siding.
But indeed it 2as i reckon the ladt opportunity gor frsncd to remain something more than the next Lebanon of Europe.gone and done deal.if you want to see the Eiffel tower, rush.. Notre Dame is already gone
And look with interest the May MP elections


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## divs4ever (25 April 2022)

short reason,  Macron dreams his nuclear reactors can power the majority of the EU , if that fails  Germany is a train-wreck , if Germany  crashes   so do the PIGS 

 have seen the Eiffel Tower , the Moroccans ( and Algerians ) were rioting back then as well


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## divs4ever (25 April 2022)

PROTESTS ERUPT IN FRANCE AFTER MACRON’S ELECTION WIN​


that was quicker than i expected  , i thought there might have been up to a whole week of relative calm  ( wrong again )


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## qldfrog (26 April 2022)

qldfrog said:


> You will not hear from these or 2ill have a martial law sorry lockdown due to a new pollen hay fever jump in hospital.
> Macron no surprise, reelected but only managed to get 58% of vote, note that great vondidering all parti but lepen ask to vote for him
> Zemour another nationalist anti globalist an individual wo party,  was the only siding with Lepen.
> An interesting phase will be the coming parliament election where if votes reflect the presidential vote, le pen and the far left and voice of muslims have the majority if siding.
> ...



Ffs, i should not type any long post on a smartphone keyboard...
My apologies


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## qldfrog (26 April 2022)

If of interest:
This is a map of the votes, in blue, LePen, and who ended ahead locally
A mostly country vs city tale reflecting as well the migration/religious vote.
Very society divisive and a clear indicator of an ultra weak support for the current EU model.


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## wayneL (26 April 2022)

qldfrog said:


> Ffs, i should not type any long post on a smartphone keyboard...
> My apologies



Welcome to my world


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