# Elliott Wave - XAO starting wave C?



## mb1 (10 September 2007)

Any other elliot wavists out there?  Is the all ords currently on wave B and about to start wave C?


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## Nick Radge (10 September 2007)

*Re: Elliot Wave - XAO starting wave C?*

My opinion is that the move off the Aug 16 lows has been impulsive and is more than likely *not *a wave-B. It's either a wave-1 of a new uptrend or a wave-a of a larger running/irregular flat pattern. Either scenario has scope for a pull back toward 5800.


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## wavepicker (10 September 2007)

*Re: Elliot Wave - XAO starting wave C?*

Tend to agree with Nicks views here. If the market ends up putting in a marginal false break high to complete wave B( I think a new uptrend would be much lower probability here), then a fast move down might start(strong impulse) as wave C’s are in many cases.  
Would expect market to chop around for a while from current levels before perhaps moving to slightly higher recovery levels. 

I have 28th September and 5 October as an overlap of a key cycle termination. As such the market may surprise from here and actually “hold up” till that time frame. I don’t think this is the start of a move to new lows yet, I think this will happen later. Time and Pattern are most important


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## vert (10 September 2007)

*Re: Elliot Wave - XAO starting wave C?*

is this how you see it mb1?
nick should a wave c finish around my lower green circle 38.2 fib retrace and also equal to wave 4?


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## Nick Radge (10 September 2007)

*Re: Elliot Wave - XAO starting wave C?*

Wave-2 or -b should retrace 50.0% to 61.8% of the prior 5-wave advance. I'd say 5800/5900 is more probable. We'll only do a shallow retrace if we enter into some kind of flat but with interest rates pushing through 7% I think the risk is to the deeper zigzag retracement at this stage.


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## Edwood (10 September 2007)

*Re: Elliot Wave - XAO starting wave C?*

yes was about to say 2's often retrace most of 1.  & with the volatility its probably appropriate to give the waves more room to play out imo


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## wavepicker (10 September 2007)

*Re: Elliot Wave - XAO starting wave C?*

I was actually looking at approx 38.2% retrace for this move down to around 6000-6050 for this to complete by about the 11-12th September, and then rally into the 19th Sept again. 

As this was such a strong leg up, it would not surprise to see the market consolidate somewhat at these levels before pushing to new recovery highs later in the month.

Cheers


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## mb1 (10 September 2007)

*Re: Elliot Wave - XAO starting wave C?*

VERT, what you got there is exactly how I see it. thanks for the graph


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## slackjaw (15 July 2008)

*Re: Elliot Wave - XAO starting wave C?*

what software are you using to make that graph? looks good compared to incredible charts which Im using at the moment


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## pavilion103 (4 July 2011)

*Re: Elliot Wave - XAO starting wave C?*

Is anyone who is experienced in Elliot Wave prepared to do an analysis for the current Australian market?
I'm trying to learn Elliot Wave at the moment. 

Thanks,


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## Chris45 (4 July 2011)

*Re: Elliot Wave - XAO starting wave C?*



pavilion103 said:


> Elliot Wave




Waiting for Kennas to pounce. corn:


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## Sean K (4 July 2011)

*Re: Elliot Wave - XAO starting wave C?*



Chris45 said:


> Waiting for Kennas to pounce. corn:



 :batman:


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## Chris45 (5 July 2011)

*Re: Elliot Wave - XAO starting wave C?*



kennas said:


> :batman:




Love it!!! :remybussi


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## pavilion103 (5 July 2011)

lol I'm not sure what is going on! Not a fan of EW?


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## Chris45 (5 July 2011)

pavilion103 said:


> lol I'm not sure what is going on! Not a fan of EW?




There's a small group on this forum who delight in sabotaging any discussions on Elliott Wave and Gann that anyone tries to start (no prize for guessing who their leader is) so there's little incentive for anyone to contribute.

*This thread* might give you an insight into who is for, and who is against Elliott.


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## pavilion103 (5 July 2011)

Chris45 said:


> There's a small group on this forum who delight in sabotaging any discussions on Elliott Wave and Gann that anyone tries to start (no prize for guessing who their leader is) so there's little incentive for anyone to contribute.
> 
> *This thread* might give you an insight into who is for, and who is against Elliott.




Gotta expect that I guess :

I had only heard bad things about Elliott Wave in the past but have been a bit more open minded listening to people like Tech/a and the like who use at least a basic level of it to analyse where the stock is at in its trend. 

I certainly am not thinking of it as the be all and end all, far from it. But I guess like anything else it is best to test it personally rather than go by the opinions (good or bad) or others (while at the same time still taking things on board).


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## Boggo (5 July 2011)

pavilion103 said:


> I had only heard bad things about Elliott Wave in the past ...
> 
> I certainly am not thinking of it as the be all and end all, far from it...




Re the two extracts from your comment above.

The majority of the bad comments are from those that have tried it and given up usually because it is too hard. That's up to them if they want to give up but its a bit unfair to people who are trying to add it to their knowledge base.

It is not by any means the "be all and end all", nothing is, but it can be used to supplement other methods.

My main buy targets are ABC corrections and breakouts.
To use both effectively you need to know where a stock is in its 'life cycle'.

An example...
In my Metastock scans I had three potential buy breakouts signals on IGO on the 1st, 2nd and 3rd Dec 2010 (breakout area circled on chart below).
I ignored all three because I could see the bigger picture of where IGO was in its cycle and I could project its min, typical and max target areas based on its previous pattern to that point and therefore knew that it had limited upside.

As you may see it is not just about buying winners, its about the bigger picture.
Used with Fibonacci it can enhance your prospects especially when you get to the stage of being able to glance at a chart and see a picture.

I think it was Robert Miner who said that it only works 50% of the time on 50% of the market so don't try to make it work and then get disappointed when it (you) fail.

Other than this post I am not going to continue with a discussion on the topic because its as predictable as EW that it will deteriorate to a personal level in the same manner as it has in the past

EW chart of IGO (click to expand)


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## joea (5 July 2011)

Hi Guys 
I am into Elliott wave a bit, but I put a post of XAO on another thread.
I am interested in comparing the software cycles.
It is interesting the comments above, and I think we should push on with the main, markets with Elliott wave, and get it going. (XJO and Dow maybe) as we fit under the mushroom of USA.
People who do not agree with the concept can have the opportunity of doubt if the feel that way. I do not think that should worry anybody.
Cheers joea


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## skc (5 July 2011)

Could someone kindly tell me (or point me to a reference) the underlying reason why EW should work? Or is it just observed that it works?

For example - The sun rises from the East ... it can be observed and you can use that information to bet that the sun will rise from the East tomorrow and achieve a good result. But you can also try to understand the underlying reason that the sun rises from the East is because the Earth's rotation blah blah blah...

I am not saying that you need the underlying reason for it to work for you, but I am just interest to know if there are people who's attempted to explain the rationale behind its working. The only information I've seen is related to crowd behaviour at a pretty superficial level... is there anything else out there?


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## Chris45 (6 July 2011)

skc said:


> Could someone kindly tell me (or point me to a reference) the underlying reason why EW should work? Or is it just observed that it works?




I think this is a reasonably good explanation:
http://www.esignalcentral.com/university/get/getManual/eSignal_Manual_ch6.pdf


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## skc (6 July 2011)

Chris45 said:


> I think this is a reasonably good explanation:
> http://www.esignalcentral.com/university/get/getManual/eSignal_Manual_ch6.pdf




Thank you. I can see why such behaviour could happen.


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## zzaaxxss3401 (6 July 2011)

*Re: Elliot Wave - XAO starting wave C?*



vert said:


> is this how you see it mb1?
> nick should a wave c finish around my lower green circle 38.2 fib retrace and also equal to wave 4?



I thought this was an analysis of the XAO chart. What am I missing here - this graph looks nothing like the XAO in both tracking and/or scale? Please explain.


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## pavilion103 (6 July 2011)

*Re: Elliot Wave - XAO starting wave C?*



zzaaxxss3401 said:


> I thought this was an analysis of the XAO chart. What am I missing here - this graph looks nothing like the XAO in both tracking and/or scale? Please explain.




This thread is from 2007. 

I was hoping someone would put up a new chart and we could discuss the analysis.


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## Boggo (6 July 2011)

*Re: Elliot Wave - XAO starting wave C?*



pavilion103 said:


> This thread is from 2007.
> 
> I was hoping someone would put up a new chart and we could discuss the analysis.




Correct, from 2007 and refers to starting wave C. 
Not really relevant at the moment.

Joea is around the mark at the moment on here... https://www.aussiestockforums.com/forums/showthread.php?t=4888&p=643597&viewfull=1#post643597


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## Chris45 (6 July 2011)

skc said:


> Thank you. I can see why such behaviour could happen.



skc, EW is certainly not the 'Holy Grail' but it can boost your confidence to take a risk when you see a pattern falling into place.




I'm certainly not claiming to be any sort of an EW genius but in early 2003, when I saw this pattern developing, I was fairly confident that it was a wave5 so I switched most of my super to share funds and geared share funds. I felt it would probably end with a very significant correction, so I switched to cash in mid-2007. Up till 2003, my savings had been making little progress and without EW I would probably have missed out on that once in a generation get-rich-quick opportunity, which is why I'm now a believer. But, like everything else, it doesn't work perfectly all of the time.

If you want to learn more, have a look at chapters 9, 10 & 11:
http://www.esignallearning.com/members/getManual.aspx

The 'Elliott Oscillator' is essentially a 5,35 MACD and can be reproduced on most charting programs.


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