# Retail Wreckage



## greggles (11 December 2019)

I can't remember when the retail sector last strugged as hard as it is now. It's almost painful to watch as retailer after retailer enters voluntary administration or liquidation. The last few years have been particularly bad.

There are so many empty shopfronts in my neighbourhood and the only word I can find to accurately describe the current situation in retail is "wasteland". It is as grim as it's ever been.

The latest company to fall victim to the dismal retail operating conditions is Harris Scarfe, which was placed into voluntary administration today. More than 1800 jobs are at risk across the country at its 66 stores.

Obviously the high level of household debt combined with stagnant wage growth is underpinning the lacklustre performance of the retail sector. Recent interest rate cuts appear to have provided no relief. 

The big question is, are we at or near bottom? Where will the retail sector be in 12 months and is it undergoing some kind of fundamental transformation as retailers head online in droves?

Interesting times for sure. I'm very curious about this year's Christmas retail figures. That will be a good gauge as to where we are in the great scheme of things and perhaps an indication of where we are headed.


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## aus_trader (11 December 2019)

That was a surprise indeed. I thought Harris Scarfe might be one that is spared and survive through the difficult retail environment.

Looking at the share price over the last few years, I think TRS is just hanging on as well, although there is a rally in the last couple of days.


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## PZ99 (11 December 2019)

Bricks and mortar has a use-by date. E-commerce doesn't involve exorbitant rents. Retailers aren't seeing this - they're too busy trying to make the problem worse by bashing wages.

Don't have a lot of sympathy to be honest.


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## Country Lad (11 December 2019)

Had cause to venture  into some of the major shopping centres in Q'ld and NSW recently.  Shop after shop of women's fashion shops, many with not a customer in sight. We have seen this often and having a good idea of the rents paid, I can only wonder how small their bottom line must be, if they are in the black that is.  We have been into the local Harris Scarfe often and it never gave me the impression of a business going wrong.
It would be interesting to see how Greenlit Brands' other business are going -  
Fantastic Furniture, freedom, Snooze, Best & Less, Plush, OMF


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## Smurf1976 (11 December 2019)

greggles said:


> I can't remember when the retail sector last strugged as hard as it is now. It's almost painful to watch as retailer after retailer enters voluntary administration or liquidation.




"Big" things going broke and/or a large number of workers being put off in one go and making the news headlines is one of the defining aspects of a recession once it starts becoming common.



> I'm very curious about this year's Christmas retail figures.




In that regard I find the timing extremely interesting and perhaps somewhat telling.

To fail at what should be the high point of the year implies that the money wasn't rolling in to the extent they'd expected it would?


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## moXJO (11 December 2019)

Back in the 80s there was a gym on every corner.  Not long after things blew up.
"Peak gym" (a scientifically proven indicator) is a way to tell when recession is truly on its way. I believe we have already hit peak gym and have been on the slide for a  bit.

On another note:
My favorite thai bakery just shut down in Sydney. The cakes were delicious. All my favorite eateries always bear the brunt. In the end we will be left with maccas and sub par cafes.

I'll spend the next few weeks eating at all my favorite places before they shut down.


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## Smurf1976 (11 December 2019)

moXJO said:


> I'll spend the next few weeks eating at all my favorite places before they shut down.



How about you just eat at the crap ones that way the rest stay in business?


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## macca (11 December 2019)

Having been a retailer and retail supplier until I retired I find the present attitude of most retailers quite puzzling.

There are good examples eg Harvey Norman, Coles, Woolies Bunnings etc but the majority of shops really can't be bothered to take my money.

Myers is the classic example but even with staff in small shops my wife or I seem to be invisible.

A few years ago now but my local newsagent was hopeless until one day I spoke a bit louder and said " sorry to interrupt your social life but will you take my money please"

The relatively new owner gave me a rather sheepish look and since that day, to his credit, his service (and his business) has improved noticeably.

It also seems to me that there are way too many shops selling women's clothes and far too many coffee franchises ripping off hard working folk trying to get ahead in life.

Some of the lies spun to these poor folk are disgraceful and the people taking their money should be charged with fraud.

It could also be said that the classic situation of parents buying a franchise so the kids have a job (even if adult kids) is often a disaster as well.

In our local shopping centre a family set up a new Cold Rock Ice Creamery, they are not even taking enough to pay the rent let alone get wages.

If his DD had been thorough, he would have been told that Wendies closed down and the juice bar even gave up selling ice cream as a side line as it all went stale.

I do not know how much they paid but $250k is mentioned in online searches, those same searches would have shown quite a few disgruntled CR owners out there.

I agree that online purchases do make it harder but if your website is any good then it can save you quite a lot of time in the store. We quite often do our research looking for stock and info then simply walk in and buy it.

If you wish to stay in business then you must try harder, when people walk into a shop and look around for staff the staff should have been watching for that moment and zoom in for the sale.

Product knowledge and enthusiasm can increase turnover by 20 or 30% IMO and that will take a dying business and turn it around very quickly. 

Nothing is foolproof but busy, happy staff make a hell of a difference


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## So_Cynical (11 December 2019)

greggles said:


> The latest company to fall victim to the dismal retail operating conditions is Harris Scarfe




I was going to buy some pillows from them tomorrow, they have/had a really comprehensive bedding range, was very quiet when i was there buying a doona a couple of months ago.


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## aus_trader (11 December 2019)

Country Lad said:


> We have been into the local Harris Scarfe often and it never gave me the impression of a business going wrong.




I had the same experience when I went to buy some Denim jeans a few days ago. There were Christmas shoppers throughout the store and a small queue at the checkout in the middle of the store.


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## Smurf1976 (11 December 2019)

So_Cynical said:


> I was going to buy some pillows from them tomorrow, they have/had a really comprehensive bedding range, was very quiet when i was there buying a doona a couple of months ago.



I think the shops are still open while they’re under administration.


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## Humid (11 December 2019)

Such a pity Labor didn’t get in.....at least we would have someone to blame.


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## moXJO (11 December 2019)

Humid said:


> Such a pity Labor didn’t get in.....at least we would have someone to blame.



No reason why  we can't
Damn Rudd and Turnbull was basically labor.


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## Humid (11 December 2019)

moXJO said:


> No reason why  we can't
> Damn Rudd and Turnbull was basically labor.




Trickle down blame


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## sptrawler (12 December 2019)

Another problem retail is having, is the banks tightening lending criteria, especially the car sector.
https://www.drive.com.au/news/holde...s5/#utm_source=SMH-Plista&utm_medium=Referral
From the article:
_Last month, the chief executive of the Federal Chamber of Automotive Industries, Tony Weber, said while the drought and other domestic conditions are impacting new-car sales “our key concern is the effect over-regulation of the financial sector is having”.

“(We) have been concerned about the risk-averse approach to lending in Australia for some time and see improved access to finance as a key to driving economic growth in 2020,” Mr Weber said in November_.


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## qldfrog (12 December 2019)

Car is a bit special, you have the EV effect...wait for an ev, aging of population with new migrants flocking to cities and not buying cars initially, most of them coming with no money, and aging curve of the baby boomers keeping their cars while tradies stop buying hilux as job becoming scarce...
I would not like owning a car dealership next year


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## Jack Aubrey (12 December 2019)

qldfrog said:


> Car is a bit special, you have the EV effect...wait for an ev, aging of population with new migrants flocking to cities and not buying cars initially, most of them coming with no money, and aging curve of the baby boomers keeping their cars while tradies stop buying hilux as job becoming scarce...
> I would not like owning a car dealership next year




I also notice that car ownership is not the "must" it once was with younger city dwellers either.  TCO is pretty high now, especially with city parking costs and tolls, even though purchase prices don't seem to have inflated very much at all.  The EV effect is certainly strong with me.


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## moXJO (12 December 2019)

Humid said:


> Trickle down blame



Truth is we haven't had decent governing for 2 decades. I wouldn't pee on the current bunch of libs if they were on fire.


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## PZ99 (12 December 2019)

moXJO said:


> Truth is we haven't had decent governing for 2 decades. I wouldn't pee on the current bunch of libs if they were on fire.



They ARE on fire 

But the key to successful retailing is adaptation - not reliance on Govt. The writing has been on the wall ever since the last recession - shops have been burning down ever since.


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## moXJO (12 December 2019)

PZ99 said:


> They ARE on fire
> 
> But the key to successful retailing is adaptation - not reliance on Govt. The writing has been on the wall ever since the last recession - shops have been burning down ever since.



Generation change as well. The population is agoraphobic and social retarded  in the tech age.


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## jbocker (12 December 2019)

Shopping with the Mrs because she needed more 'tops'. Went into a female clothing store and was surprised at the pricing, most stuff was either $20 or $25. In my earlier 'what is this gonna cost' thinking I guessed most would be in the $40-$65 range. A little bundle of purchases were selected from a VERY much larger bundle of try-ons. One of these had an error in pricing, and the shop owner stated "hmm this one has come up as $117". 
I asked what should it be.
 She said $25.

I thought that sounds like internet pricing, and I am happy to return there but while there were no signs of closing down, I do fear I wont see the shop on my return.

On another note I bought some Kmart 'around the house' shorts for $5 each. They were quite robust not some flimsy vomit coloured pair.
Quite surprised at the price, I have since worn them twice and still no sign of deterioration.


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## qldfrog (12 December 2019)

Welcome to the world of chinese manufacturing.
When the inbetween get removed, it is very cheap and competitive.wait till the effects are felt for cars, housing


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## So_Cynical (12 December 2019)

So_Cynical said:


> I was going to buy some pillows from them tomorrow, they have/had a really comprehensive bedding range, was very quiet when i was there buying a doona a couple of months ago.



A reasonable crowd in Harris Scarfe today mid afternoon, vulture mentality?? got some very cheap (not original packaging) pillows.


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## qldfrog (12 December 2019)

So_Cynical said:


> A reasonable crowd in Harris Scarfe today mid afternoon, vulture mentality?? got some very cheap (not original packaging) pillows.



Soaring like an eagle, feeding like a vulture?


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## Humid (13 December 2019)

moXJO said:


> Truth is we haven't had decent governing for 2 decades. I wouldn't pee on the current bunch of libs if they were on fire.




You couldn’t pea on them because without Nelson or Bishop you couldn’t name any
Who are the Libs?
Oh  yeah Taylor


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## moXJO (13 December 2019)

So_Cynical said:


> A reasonable crowd in Harris Scarfe today mid afternoon, vulture mentality?? got some very cheap (not original packaging) pillows.



Nostalgic/Loss mentality....
Same thing happened when darell lea was closing down. 
Everyone wonders: " How could the shutdown?". Not realizing they probably shopped there once every 2 years.


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## moXJO (13 December 2019)

Humid said:


> You couldn’t pea on them because without Nelson or Bishop you couldn’t name any
> Who are the Libs?
> Oh  yeah Taylor



The authoritarians got control over the party. The original mantra was something like: " We want to give every opportunity for you to get ahead while we as a government don't intrude negatively in your life".

Now its " Do what we say and no one gets hurt".

Turnbull made the right noises but failed miserably. 
Both sides are so far away from their core its ridiculous.


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## jogibains (28 December 2019)

PZ99 said:


> Bricks and mortar has a use-by date. E-commerce doesn't involve exorbitant rents. Retailers aren't seeing this - they're too busy trying to make the problem worse by bashing wages.
> 
> Don't have a lot of sympathy to be honest.




Same here no sympathy for retailers they are to greedy. I have friend overseas who have export business overseas they sell item to Bunnigs. I give you a example they sell 1 item for $2.50 AUD and Bunning is selling that item for $50.00 AUD now think. Specifically these big retailers also distroy manufacturing industry just for there profit margins.


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## greggles (16 January 2020)

In January, all of the lazy, upcompetitive (or simply past their prime) retailers are in their death throes. Harris Scarfe, McWilliams Wines, EB Games, Bardot, Curious Planet, Jeanswest. The strong Christmas sales for these retailers obviously didn't eventuate and they are stumbling out of the retail jungle weakened and near death.

Shopping centre rents and other brick and mortar-related overheads are just helping to strangle the weakest of the bunch. I think 2020 will see the last of the struggling retailers fold and 2021 should hopefully see some recovery.

https://www.news.com.au/finance/bus...y/news-story/14c50866e94b06b94f2a392310a12056


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## Knobby22 (16 January 2020)

greggles said:


> In January, all of the lazy, upcompetitive (or simply past their prime) retailers are in their death throes. Harris Scarfe, McWilliams Wines, EB Games, Bardot, Curious Planet, Jeanswest. The strong Christmas sales for these retailers obviously didn't eventuate and they are stumbling out of the retail jungle weakened and near death.



Jeanswest used to be cool in the mid 80s.


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## barney (16 January 2020)

greggles said:


> Shopping centre rents and other brick and mortar-related overheads are just helping to strangle the weakest of the bunch.




Its all a bit sad really …. not for the big players; they are well backed/funded and go in with all intentions of making a killing or get out before being killed.

It's the smaller business's/franchises that struggle (not that there are too many left) … The rents are astronomical and the online world is changing everything for everyone. I'm happy to be a battler sole trader well away from all that kind of stress!


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## sptrawler (16 January 2020)

qldfrog said:


> Car is a bit special, you have the EV effect...wait for an ev, aging of population with new migrants flocking to cities and not buying cars initially, most of them coming with no money, and aging curve of the baby boomers keeping their cars while tradies stop buying hilux as job becoming scarce...
> I would not like owning a car dealership next year



Just drove through Victoria park, a suburb of Perth where a lot of car yards are located, haven't been there for 12 months or so, the amount of closed car yards is amazing.
As you said frog not a good business to be in at the moment.


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## sptrawler (16 January 2020)

Bose to close all stores and move to an online format, maybe a sign of things to come?

https://www.9news.com.au/national/b...shopping/8713060a-a056-4011-b02d-fad511b80a97


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## barney (16 January 2020)

sptrawler said:


> Bose to close all stores and move to an online format, maybe a sign of things to come?




I've been a muso for a million years and Bose have always been an innovator with brilliant products …. As you indicate Homer … Online is likely the future for almost everything.


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## Smurf1976 (16 January 2020)

sptrawler said:


> Bose to close all stores and move to an online format, maybe a sign of things to come?



I see the point about online and so on.

On the other hand though, well so far it's another day and another one bites the dust.

It's literally running at the rate of one per day at the moment. That's going to seriously weigh on consumer sentiment with everyone hearing this constant stream of news about business closures etc.


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## barney (16 January 2020)

Smurf1976 said:


> It's literally running at the rate of one per day at the moment. That's going to seriously weigh on consumer sentiment with everyone hearing this constant stream of news about business closures etc.




I doubt Bose will ever be a victim in the big scheme of things but I agree that sentiment (in Aus particularly) will surely be impacted with these closures.  

The whole scenario might open the well worn debate that our past and present Aus governments have not had enough foresight in managing/supporting our economy with regard to Retail/Manufacturing etc etc 
I'm just an average punter, but I think our propensity to "sell Australia" to overseas interests for short term gain will eventually come back to bite our future generations (children's/grandchildren's) bums, and Retail is just the tip of the iceberg! 

Hope I'm wrong


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## tinhat (16 January 2020)

jbocker said:


> Shopping with the Mrs because she needed more 'tops'. Went into a female clothing store and was surprised at the pricing, most stuff was either $20 or $25. In my earlier 'what is this gonna cost' thinking I guessed most would be in the $40-$65 range. A little bundle of purchases were selected from a VERY much larger bundle of try-ons. One of these had an error in pricing, and the shop owner stated "hmm this one has come up as $117".
> I asked what should it be.
> She said $25.
> 
> ...




Nothing is made to last and that doesn't matter to consumers anyway because fashion is so fast moving that everything is junk in ten minutes. That would not be a problem if it were not for the enormous amount of water it takes to grow cotton and the fact that, even if synthetic fibre, these clothes end up in landfill.


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## rcm617 (16 January 2020)

With all this doom and gloom in the retailing space, I wonder where the jobs for the lesser skilled school leavers will come from. Online certainly doesn't need the amount of workers involved and on top of this more and more of the supermarkets are forcing shoppers to the unmanned checkouts.


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## jbocker (16 January 2020)

tinhat said:


> Nothing is made to last and that doesn't matter to consumers anyway because fashion is so fast moving that everything is junk in ten minutes. That would not be a problem if it were not for the enormous amount of water it takes to grow cotton and the fact that, even if synthetic fibre, these clothes end up in landfill.



Agree with you. I don't think they will be in landfill too much into the future, they will go to Op Shops where we can afford them, provided they continue to be run by volunteers. As with water resources, we need to them to fight fires, and maybe we should return to the fig leaf for apparel, albeit I would only need a rose leaf! Hmm then again not till be get SP2000  nuclear sun cream under this changing sun.


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## SirRumpole (16 January 2020)

rcm617 said:


> With all this doom and gloom in the retailing space, I wonder where the jobs for the lesser skilled school leavers will come from. Online certainly doesn't need the amount of workers involved and on top of this more and more of the supermarkets are forcing shoppers to the unmanned checkouts.




All the stores will move to the Amazon model. Only work will be for packers and despatchers, watched every minute by cctv, strictly limited toilet breaks and minimal wages.


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## jbocker (16 January 2020)

rcm617 said:


> With all this doom and gloom in the retailing space, I wonder where the jobs for the lesser skilled school leavers will come from. Online certainly doesn't need the amount of workers involved and on top of this more and more of the supermarkets are forcing shoppers to the unmanned checkouts.



I WLL NOT go to a self serve queue, I will go to a human operated check out even if I have to wait in a line. I can have a conversation with a human and they pack my bags.  I cant see the attraction of a crowded zone where you struggle with bags and have a machine squawking at me 'put this here, put that there' making me look like a complete idiot (I do that very easily without ANY help).
I swear if I used it and that f little thing tells me have nice day ..I will rip the top off a 4 Litre OMO sensitive cold water laundry bottle and jam it up its card shoot and flush it till its totally Googlised.


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## Dona Ferentes (16 January 2020)

SirRumpole said:


> All the stores will move to the Amazon model. Only work will be for packers and despatchers, watched every minute by cctv, strictly limited toilet breaks and minimal wages.




CCTV - such obsolete tech. This from John Mauldin's _Thoughts from the Frontline,  _a few weeks ago







> _I wasn’t prepared for how exhausting working at Amazon would be. It took my body two weeks to adjust to the agony of walking 15 miles a day and doing hundreds of squats. But as the physical stress got more manageable, the mental stress of being held to the productivity standards of a robot became an even bigger problem._



_



			Technology has enabled employers to enforce a work pace with no room for inefficiency, squeezing every ounce of downtime out of workers’ days. The scan gun I used to do my job was also *my own personal digital manager*. Every single thing I did was monitored and timed. After I completed a task, the scan gun not only immediately gave me a new one but also started counting down the seconds I had left to do it.
		
Click to expand...





			It also alerted a manager if I had too many minutes of “Time Off Task.” At my warehouse, you were expected to be off task for only 18 minutes per shift—mine was 6:30 a.m. to 6 p.m.—which included using the bathroom, getting a drink of water or just walking slower than the algorithm dictated, though we did have a 30-minute unpaid lunch. It created a constant buzz of low-grade panic, and the isolation and monotony of the work left me feeling as if I were losing my mind. Imagine experiencing that month after month....
		
Click to expand...


_


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## jbocker (16 January 2020)

Dona Ferentes said:


> CCTV - such obsolete tech. This from John Mauldin's _Thoughts from the Frontline,  _a few weeks ago



Hey they sound like the person I married, uh oh,  the person I married has noticed me and coming over, I think I am about to b


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## Smurf1976 (17 January 2020)

SirRumpole said:


> All the stores will move to the Amazon model. Only work will be for packers and despatchers, watched every minute by cctv, strictly limited toilet breaks and minimal wages.



Sadly I think you're right.

At least until the retailers realise that unemployed people can't afford to buy what they're selling and reducing "retail" to a minor activity means it disappears off the radar of governments.


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## tinhat (17 January 2020)

Listen to all the whinging and moaning. What do you people care about the younger generation? You got to keep your franking credits so shut up!


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## basilio (17 January 2020)

Dona Ferentes said:


> CCTV - such obsolete tech. This from John Mauldin's _Thoughts from the Frontline,  _a few weeks ago




That was absolutely terrifying.  That degree of relentless control and extraction of work.
It would truly drive one mad - or homicidal.

I wonder what the mental health of Amazon workers is like ?


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## qldfrog (17 January 2020)

tinhat said:


> Listen to all the whinging and moaning. What do you people care about the younger generation? You got to keep your franking credits so shut up!



Where is the unlike button?
So it seems @tinhat is happy with self checking and online buying
Allow us oldies to worries for our kids..but true, with universal income and labour in power, we will be ok..
Just tax the rich bastards...


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## Smurf1976 (17 January 2020)

tinhat said:


> Listen to all the whinging and moaning. What do you people care about the younger generation? You got to keep your franking credits so shut up!



I think that’s a ridiculous argument really.

It’s the oldest trick in the book and one that’s extremely well known to the unions. Divide and conquer.

Raise the lowest tax brackets to a minimum of 30% for self-funded retirees today.

Tomorrow it’s about part time workers not paying any tax so it gets raised for workers too. And so on. Seen this game with plenty of other things and that’s how it works.

That the proposed changes only affected those at the bottom, having zero impact on high income earners, was the give away as to the real intent. Putting a stop to economic mobility.

That it didn’t affect me personally is precisely why I opposed it. It targeted the wrong group completely.

More to the point of the thread, that there was a threat to jack up taxes in a very significant manner to one group will have scared anyone paying attention that they’d better prepare for tough times economically. 

Add that to the likes of Amazon getting away with what they’re alleged to be doing and the loss of jobs generally and it sends a message that there’s trouble ahead, you could be next, and leads to consumers cutting non-essential spending.

That’s the issue really. Anyone with their eyes open can see that the situation isn’t good, there’s a real chance of it getting substantially worse, so they’re paying down debt and building up savings as a priority. End result = not many people in the shops.


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## Dona Ferentes (17 January 2020)

*WHAT IS ‘ENTERING ADMINISTRATION?*

Administrators are experts who take over companies that are broke. Their job is to salvage something out of the mess.

What they do is get together everyone who is owed money and try to agree on a plan. The plan usually involves cutting costs by closing stores and trying to sell off the remaining business. Sometimes a buyer can be found and sometimes it can’t.

A company that goes broke usually has a lot of debts. The big advantage an administrator has is once a company is in administration not all debts are equal. Some people will get their full money, others will not.

Staff payments are the highest level of debts, so they get paid first. Then bank loans get paid off. Suppliers are usually at the back of the list, and when administrators take over, tradies and other people who supplied things might find their best option is to agree to get a few cents back for every dollar they were owed.


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## Smurf1976 (17 January 2020)

Smurf1976 said:


> I think that’s a ridiculous argument really.




My apologies for the "tone" of that comment.

Whilst I don't agree with the point I was responding to, I could have expressed it a bit more politely than that I think. 

My apologies to tinhat.


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## qldfrog (17 January 2020)

Smurf1976 said:


> My apologies for the "tone" of that comment.
> 
> Whilst I don't agree with the point I was responding to, I could have expressed it a bit more politely than that I think.
> 
> My apologies to tinhat.



Good on you @Smurf1976 
In that specific instance , I believe you had enough to be angry but we all have to be better
"Listen to all the *whinging and moaning*." What do *you people* care about the younger generation? You got to keep your franking credits *so shut up*!
None the less..I understand @tinhat  might have had a bad day or personal issues..who has not...

I hope @tinhat , who BTW can have pretty sensible arguments and reasoning especially on mining stocks will do the same.


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## qldfrog (17 January 2020)

To go back to the thread, I always avoid self checkout just to give a job to usually a youngster and have a bit of chat..we are human, I dread the amazon model


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## SirRumpole (17 January 2020)

I will try to go to a human , but most of the convenience stores have two humans to 10 self service , so it's getting harder.


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## macca (17 January 2020)

SirRumpole said:


> I will try to go to a human , but most of the convenience stores have two humans to 10 self service , so it's getting harder.




And if I wish to pay in cash then it can a wait to access the cash self serve machine.

Since people woke up to the rip off loyalty cards it would seem they intend to gather data by insisting people use CCs

In the meantime, Aldi continues to provide checkout ops and cash or card, getting busier all the time around here, so much so they are building a new one twice the size of their rented building


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## Smurf1976 (18 January 2020)

qldfrog said:


> "Listen to all the *whinging and moaning*." What do *you people* care about the younger generation? You got to keep your franking credits *so shut up*!




The underlying issue I see there is that one by one, opportunities for the ordinary person to improve their circumstances financially are being eroded or even outright abolished.

Less than one generation ago having any degree from a proper university was a virtual guarantee of earning an above average income. These days however having what I'll call a non-elite degree, so something that isn't medicine and so on, is akin to someone in 1970 having completed grade 10 with decent marks. It's the base standard these days and nothing particularly special. If your aim is to use education to open the door to wealth then the standard required in 2020 is vastly higher than it was even one generation ago and reality is we can't all be doctors etc.

At the other end of the scale, manual labour has also been devalued. Looking at basic manual or service type jobs, they pay barely more now than they did 15 years ago which after living costs is a reduction in real terms.

Penalty rates are another one to the extent they've been wound back. Choosing to work when others won't no longer offers the opportunities it used to in some industries.

Overtime is another one. There wouldn't be too many in 2020 ever asked to do a double shift since the employer would be too scared of ending up being sued for something. Simply putting in seriously long hours in a job that paid hourly wages, just saying yes every single time the boss wanted you to work more hours, was an option at one time but it largely isn't today.

Bank interest was another thing that was available to anyone able to spend less than they earned and with no special financial knowledge required. Save some money, go into your bank branch and ask about term deposits or call accounts and you'd be signed up and earning a decent return on the spot, no prior financial or investment knowledge required. With interest rates being what they are, that option has been reduced to the point of being impractical indeed it barely offers any income at all.

Second jobs are another one. The online world has opened up more opportunities and the likes of Uber mean that anyone with a reasonably modern car can be a taxi driver. Problem is, in doing so they've wiped out pretty much all profit that was to be had from those things such that taxi driving is no longer a means to earn a decent income for many people. It was never a glamorous job, but at least it used to pay enough that someone could make a living doing it but not these days.

Which brings me back to the franking credits and so on. Investing in shares and property is one of the few things the average person still has access to which has the potential to significantly improve their circumstances financially. That someone wants to end it ought surprise nobody but it's one of the few things left.

Against that backdrop and with rising essential living costs it's no wonder that consumers aren't spending on anything they don't actually need and we're seeing all these shops close.


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## Smurf1976 (18 January 2020)

qldfrog said:


> To go back to the thread, I always avoid self checkout just to give a job to usually a youngster and have a bit of chat..we are human, I dread the amazon model



I normally shop at Foodland which doesn't have these self-serve checkouts or at least my local one doesn't.

The Amazon model in particular sounds like something that shouldn't be encouraged.


----------



## SirRumpole (18 January 2020)

Smurf1976 said:


> The underlying issue I see there is that one by one, opportunities for the ordinary person to improve their circumstances financially are being eroded or even outright abolished.




Maybe we should add increasing red tape, ohs regs, compliance charges and heavy taxation on small businesses that  makes it extremely difficult to start up your own business, especially if it employs people.


----------



## moXJO (19 January 2020)

We ran too long without a recession. Everything needs to reset, government charges included. We have hit a ceiling on what's realistically affordable in this country.

I was currently buying some industrial machinery. It's $12000 if I buy it here. It's $3000 for the exact same machine from overseas. Delivery and taxes will probably add $1500.


----------



## Zaxon (19 January 2020)

Personally, I find Amazon to be a benefit.  In the last week, I've specced and built a computer from scratch. In the past, that was always done by ordering the individual parts online from a range of different bricks-and-mortar computer stores.  For this build, my plan was the same, but when I price compared, I found Amazon to be similar or better in price.  So this computer build has come 100% from Amazon AU and Amazon US.

Firstly, most of the parts I bought on Amazon are from brick-and-mortar stores anyway.  And in many cases where the "3rd party" sent the item themselves, I was able to google their address and see a lovely computer store somewhere, and definitely one I didn't know about and would have never bought from without the benefit of Amazon.

Secondly, some of these computer stores have rather hash sounding return policies:
1) You receive a faulty product from them
2) You pay for the postage back to them out of own own pocket
3) They "test" it.  They have 100% discretion over whether they deem it faulty or not. If not, they'll charge you a 20% restocking fee.  Really?

With Amazon, if a product is faulty (which I get to determine), I can ship it back and have my postage costs covered, and be guaranteed a refund.  It's a much "safer", more customer focused experience.


----------



## Smurf1976 (19 January 2020)

moXJO said:


> We ran too long without a recession. Everything needs to reset, government charges included. We have hit a ceiling on what's realistically affordable in this country.



I think a big part of the problem is that a huge chunk of consumers’ income is now committed to “fixed” costs, mostly either government or quasi-government in nature.

Consider someone who’s an employee on fairly normal wages:

Income tax, GST on most purchses, business taxation built into the price of everything you buy, registration and licenses just so that you can own and drive a car, fuel excise on top of that, stamp duty on various things, council rates and so on.

All those are either not optional at all, or can be avoided only by not having a car etc and between them government’s taking a huge chunk of the average worker’s earnings.

Then there’s the unavoidable expenses such as utilities, public transport fares and so on with most of those having gone down the track of charging more rather than reducing costs.

Don’t even mention land prices.

End result is that business costs are uncompetitive and consumers have stuff all left for discretionary spending after they’ve paid the long list of taxes and other essential costs.

The only solution I can see requires a broad reset. Throw out most of the ideological stuff, focus on real efficiency instead of theoretical stuff, and end the practice of taking with one hand and simultaneously giving to the exact same people with the other.

A big mistake which has been made over the past 30 years is to equate moving something off the government’s books with small government.

If you take something that’s done by a team of say 500 workers actually doing the physical work and outsource it to a contractor at what ends up being triple the price then that’s an increase in the size of government not a decrease. You might have 500 fewer workers on the books but the tax which needs to be collected has gone up not down if the overall cost is higher.

I’ve seen that exact scenario by the way when I worked in the PS as such. Things outsourced at higher cost but it was driven by ideology to cut staff numbers not to save money. The end result is higher taxes which then become a burden on real private enterprises, those actually creating wealth, as distinct from those which are merely privately owned government departments in practice.

I don’t advocate abolishing the PS or anything that drastic but I do advocate actual efficiency and cost reductions not silly ideology which says that spending $1 million a year to get a single tradesman on $80K off the books is a good idea. It’s not a good use of resources and sadly it’s not a hypothetical example.


----------



## SirRumpole (19 January 2020)

Smurf1976 said:


> The only solution I can see requires a broad reset. Throw out most of the ideological stuff, focus on real efficiency instead of theoretical stuff, and end the practice of taking with one hand and simultaneously giving to the exact same people with the other.





Power prices are the real killer (followed by insurance) . The ideological stuff you mentioned is that the private sector can do a better job of delivering services like these to consumers. I think that ideology has been showed to be not necessarily applicable considering the rise in prices since privatisation of the power industry.

Someone needs to rethink this industry, but the politicians have too much skin in the ideological game to do it with any degree of open-mindedness.


----------



## basilio (19 January 2020)

Smurf1976 said:


> A big mistake which has been made over the past 30 years is to equate moving something off the government’s books with small government.
> 
> If you take something that’s done by a team of say 500 workers actually doing the physical work and outsource it to a contractor at what ends up being triple the price then that’s an increase in the size of government not a decrease. You might have 500 fewer workers on the books but the tax which needs to be collected has gone up not down if the overall cost is higher.




Well worth highlighting. The mantra of small government has been a smokescreen to sell effective government or semi government operations to business and effectively destroy an effective competitor.

The sale of the Commonwealth Bank just opened the floodgates for uncontrolled banking costs. While COM was operating  bank charges and interest rates could not move too far from the  COM benchmark. The only competition between the Big 4 is how much profit they can book and how high they can push  Senior Management salaries..


----------



## Smurf1976 (19 January 2020)

SirRumpole said:


> Power prices are the real killer (followed by insurance) . The ideological stuff you mentioned is that the private sector can do a better job of delivering services like these to consumers. I think that ideology has been showed to be not necessarily applicable considering the rise in prices since privatisation of the power industry.




I won't derail the thread subject given there's already another thread on the energy industry but I'll summarise the basic problem as this:

*It is entirely possible that someone has their home electricity account in Adelaide with Energy Australia and that should they investigate the technical details at a particular time they'll find that the physical source of electricity to their home is being generated by AGL using gas produced by Origin.

*Alinta operates one coal-fired plant comprising two generating units with combined capacity of 1120 MW. Alinta purchases 100% of the coal used in that facility from rival AGL.

*AGL had a monopoly on gas supply in Sydney south of the Harbour for over 160 years indeed they ran thew whole show and built the reticulation network. Adjusted for inflation, AGL's gas prices were lower then that they are today in a competitive market.

And so on. The notion that there's competition and that this will lower prices is substantially an illusion since there's only one grid and ultimately every power station needs to operate. Secondly, the most important aspect in driving costs down is scale and that's directly destroyed by having multiple operators doing the same thing.

What the faux competitive market does do though is introduce a lot of costs which need not be there. For example it used to be that if one steam plant was running low on demineralised water then they'd just send the tanker (same as a petrol tanker) to the other plant 15km away and bring some back. Etc. Same with spare parts when you've got sites with identical machinery. Same with staff if there's a major problem somewhere. And so on, a lot of resource sharing whereas now that everything's separate it all has to be duplicated. So facilities were duplicated, more staff to make sure there' always enough, more spare parts or alternatively much longer outages and so on plus an incredible amount of administration overlaying all that. .

So costs have been pushed up, same with gas and electricity, and the end result is that AGL (always investor owned) charges more now than it did as a monopoly for gas coming through the exact same pipes they used to own and the remaining government entities (eg in Qld, Tas, WA) are likewise burdened by higher costs and loss of efficiency and have also increased their prices in real terms.

It's hard to imagine a less efficient way of going about it but that's what the politicians insist on so that's how it's done. It all comes down to governments insisting that the industry works in a way that it doesn't. Insisting that a square hole is actually round and that the round peg must fit.


----------



## Smurf1976 (19 January 2020)

basilio said:


> Well worth highlighting. The mantra of small government has been a smokescreen to sell effective government or semi government operations to business and effectively destroy an effective competitor.




I once used the analogy of a business owner saying to an employee that things would be so much better if the phone rang more often. They mean of course that the phone rings with customers wanting work done.

Not to worry, our well intentioned employee sets up a device which calls the office number once every 3 minutes. Look boss - the phone's ringing far more often now!

Well yes it is but not in a way that's at all helpful indeed the reverse is true since now it's simply a distraction of no value and there's at least some chance that a real customer won't get through when line's engaged.

Governments have gone down that track basically. Creating the perceived symptoms of improvement, like the business with the phone ringing more often, but not creating the real reasons or benefits associated with them. 

All of this comes back to the point that we've lost the focus on genuine efficiency and being competitive to the point that the concept is rarely even mentioned these days. No surprise then to find that the country isn't competitive and consumers and business alike are struggling.


----------



## moXJO (20 January 2020)

Just to add about the product I am buying. It was originally invented and made in Australia (Tasmania I think). Chinese must have bought it out.


----------



## tinhat (20 January 2020)

Smurf1976 said:


> My apologies for the "tone" of that comment.
> 
> Whilst I don't agree with the point I was responding to, I could have expressed it a bit more politely than that I think.
> 
> My apologies to tinhat.



No worries and no need to apologise to me. I was quick cranky myself when I posted. I am very cranky about a lot of things recently. Really angry. It's a terrible tragic summer, not just for the people who have lost lives, homes and a living but an ecological catastrophe is unfolding on the eastern side of the continent this summer.

I get that the demise of retail is interesting and pertinent to stock market investors, but crikey its not like we haven't been watching this freight train hurling towards us for a long time now (not as long as we have known about the far more existentially significant environmental issues that are now on-top of us, but that's another topic for another place).

I bought some AX1 (Accent Group - shoe distributor and retailer) towards the end of last year based on a technical setup in the chart and sold them just before the end of the year. As good as AX1 is as a business, retail as an industry and as a market sector is challenged.

Information technology is absolutely disrupting and reworking all marketing channels, contractual, contactual and distribution, vertical industry structures and the value of intermediaries and agents across all industries. It's been happening for a long time, so I've been thinking about opportunities elsewhere.

Where there is change there is opportunity. I redirected the funds from selling AX1 into BID (Bidenergy) this morning. The bloody share jumped 10% before I was able to get my order executed. BID is an example of the new economy and where value can be created not just for the consumer but also the sellers within an industry as an information specialist.

Just to leave something positive as a contribution, I came across this great interview with Angie Ellis on livewire just the other day. It was really refreshing to listen to how Angie sticks to good old fashioned basics and follows her nose when analysing prospective companies to invest in. For those who still read newspapers, you might now Angie Ellis as one of the best performing stock tippers in the weekly Sun Herald stock tipping competition.

https://www.livewiremarkets.com/wires/how-an-everyday-investor-competes-with-the-pros


----------



## Smurf1976 (21 January 2020)

moXJO said:


> Just to add about the product I am buying. It was originally invented and made in Australia (Tasmania I think). Chinese must have bought it out.



I was trying to work out what sort of machinery?

Then I remembered that most things invented here are now in foreign hands....


----------



## aus_trader (21 January 2020)

Kogan.com Ltd (KGN) which is less of a traditional brick & mortar retailer was punished today despite increased numbers in it's business update. Expectations must've been higher I guess...




I have to agree with the general theme of this thread that retail is probably one of the toughest segments to be in at the moment and there are very few companies that are doing well in this environment. One is JB Hi-Fi Limited (JBH) but it's share price has run hard recently and looks stretched from it's valuations. Shaver Shop Group Ltd (SSG) although a smaller retailer, does have reasonable valuations and an attractive dividend yield at current levels, so may be one of the fewer retailers that may outperform in the retail sector.


----------



## Toyota Lexcen (21 January 2020)

Retail Super Group released some details yesterday also.

I wonder if people are saying to themselves I don't want this junk anymore? single use tents, chairs, the packaging

Bunnings has a lot of junk in it,


----------



## moXJO (21 January 2020)

Smurf1976 said:


> I was trying to work out what sort of machinery?
> 
> Then I remembered that most things invented here are now in foreign hands....



Tasmanian patented sixth toe removal machine


I don't want to mention it on here as I'll test the waters on sales and try and make some coin.


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## Humid (22 January 2020)

moXJO said:


> Tasmanian patented sixth toe removal machine
> 
> 
> I don't want to mention it on here as I'll test the waters on sales and try and make some coin.




It's why Blundstone went offshore
Poor local sales


----------



## moXJO (22 January 2020)

Humid said:


> It's why Blundstone went offshore
> Poor local sales



It's amazing how many have sold to China. Everyone cashed in.

Australia is a tough market. Some brilliant products get lost. Aussies have invented some ingenious products as well.


----------



## fergee (22 January 2020)

Toyota Lexcen said:


> Bunnings has a lot of junk in it,



100% agree with this. I for one would rather buy German, USA or Japanese quality tools that last 1-2 lifetimes than junk chinese made tools that last 1-2 years.
Its kind of like investing just because something appears cheap it doesn't mean its good value.


----------



## tinhat (22 January 2020)

fergee said:


> 100% agree with this. I for one would rather buy German, USA or Japanese quality tools that last 1-2 lifetimes than junk chinese made tools that last 1-2 years.



I'm the same because I hate sending stuff to landfill when it has a lot of embedded energy in it. But it is horses for courses for me. I seem to be a bit hard on my electrical tools. When you are grinding or cutting you just want to get the job done. Regardless of the brand I tend to go through the small angle grinders and I don't find any difference between a cheap $35 ozito and something three times the price. Same with the ozito 1600W rotary hammer drill. Does as good a job as any other far more expensive brand. 

Bringing this back to the theme of this discussion, like most things I do most of my research and price searching online and talk to the specialists at the specialty stores for further advice. The problem with Bunnings is that their staff don't know much about what they are selling. Bunnings is the most convenient store for me because my closest one is only half an hour drive whereas most of the other specialty shops are another twenty minutes away. What I am getting at is where a retailer can add value by providing pre and after sales service they still have opportunity.

The other issue is that distributors are often all to willing to compete directly with retailers and sell directly to the public online. I was impressed a while ago when I rang up Aussie Pumps to inquire about buying one of their pressure washers and told the bloke who was giving me technical advice that I was ready to order one. He directed me to their closest stockist, gave me his name and number and told me he would call him ahead of me to let him know what we discussed and that they would honour the special price in their catalogue.

I hope some people found the interview I linked to in my post above useful. One thing that Angie was talking about (not just retail) is looking for ASX listed stocks that have international growth potential. She made some interesting points about the overseas expansion opportunities she sees for fashion jewelry retailer Lovisa. I've never really taken much interest in Lovisa because I am bearish on retail, hate fashion and they don't sell power tools.


----------



## Dona Ferentes (22 January 2020)

> German hypermarket Kaufland says it will make an "orderly withdrawal" from the Australian market to focus on its European investments in another blow to the struggling retail sector.
> 
> In a fresh indictment of the dire retail landscape, the $170 billion retailer revealed on Wednesday it had made the decision after "careful and thoughtful consideration".



 Aldi and Costco breathing easier?


----------



## greggles (22 January 2020)

Dona Ferentes said:


> Aldi and Costco breathing easier?




Too much competition in the supermarket sector. Even though Kaufland is out-of-pocket around half a billion dollars, they have probably saved themselves further operating losses down the track.


----------



## Smurf1976 (23 January 2020)

greggles said:


> Too much competition in the supermarket sector. Even though Kaufland is out-of-pocket around half a billion dollars, they have probably saved themselves further operating losses down the track.



The real concern isn’t so much that they’re not going to be operating in Australia but that they’ve completely changed their mind, going from expansion to a complete pull out, at the same time numerous other retail and similar businesses are also closing or at least downsizing.

That this is so, yet another one on the list and we’re only three weeks into the year, is not a good sign so far as the national economy is concerned.


----------



## Dona Ferentes (23 January 2020)

Smurf1976 said:


> The real concern isn’t so much that they’re not going to be operating in Australia but that they’ve completely changed their mind, going from expansion to a complete pull out...



Ah, the power of *incumbency. *Kaufland were looking to open with a bang (blitz?); the operation had hired up to 200, including Woolies and Coles middle management, sent many to Germany for training for up to 6 months, scoped out up to 23 sites for their big boxes (5000sq.m. or double the average size supermarket) and turned the sod on the distribution centre outside Melbourne. The amount, as reported, has been $500+ million. And a lot of that was in planning, talking to councils, getting DAs, lining up suppliers and the like.

By letting their Australian employees go, it signals the parent company has little intention to launch Lidl, their 'Aldi' equivalent. Another aspect of this shock may be the "new CEO syndrome", as there are reports an intended move into the USA is on hold.


----------



## moXJO (23 January 2020)

A lot of German and USA tools are made in China. It's rare to see much made outside of China these days.


Did anyone actually shop in Kaufland?
Was the experience or price better?

Must have been some horror figures for them to pack up and run.


----------



## SirRumpole (23 January 2020)

Personally I've never heard of Kaufland, but I agree that it's hard to get anything not made in China these days. That doesn't mean that stuff can't be made in China to a high standard, it's a matter of getting QA procedures adopted and not settling for anything less than than the agreed degree of quality.


----------



## Dona Ferentes (23 January 2020)

moXJO said:


> Did anyone actually shop in Kaufland?
> Was the experience or price better?.



They never opened in Australia... expected to in 2021, in a big way. The $500million was preparatory work, for at least 21 big boxes.

The parent, Schwartz Group, is the fourth largest retailer in the world, operating 1230 stores in Europe
(Germany and former Eastern bloc nations, largely)


----------



## qldfrog (23 January 2020)

True, and to be honest, as per japan, things are inproving, i always bought cheap battery drills.my first ones were abysmal, my last ozito keeps going well past reasonable expectancy,
And for a diy guy, i do not need a one use tool to keep forever if i can pay 20 or 30 bucks and the job is done but the tool dead at the end of the renovations.
20y ago, i  would have hired a good tool, now i buy a throwaway for less than it costed me to hire 29y ago...


----------



## greggles (23 January 2020)

Smurf1976 said:


> The real concern isn’t so much that they’re not going to be operating in Australia but that they’ve completely changed their mind, going from expansion to a complete pull out, at the same time numerous other retail and similar businesses are also closing or at least downsizing.
> 
> That this is so, yet another one on the list and we’re only three weeks into the year, is not a good sign so far as the national economy is concerned.




Agree. What the pull out makes me think is that Kaufland's analysis led them to believe that retail is going to get worse in Australia. Why else would they pull out after spending $500 million? If we were currently at bottom in retail with a recovery to come you would think they would carry on after making that sort of capital investment and take advantage of the upswing. They clearly think that there is worse to come, possibly for years.

I think we are inexorably heading toward another interest rate cut, possibly as early as next month. It is clear that the domestic economy needs to be stimulated further. The problem is, of course, that previous interest rate cuts haven't really had the desired effect so it is doubtful that any upcoming ones will either.


----------



## SirRumpole (23 January 2020)

greggles said:


> I think we are inexorably heading toward another interest rate cut, possibly as early as next month. It is clear that the domestic economy needs to be stimulated further. The problem is, of course, that previous interest rate cuts haven't really had the desired effect so it is doubtful that any upcoming ones will either.




I think interest rate cuts are now counter productive.

People have woken up to the fact that cuts are needed because the economy is cr@p, and they are saving as much as they can in case the economy goes even more belly up and they lose their jobs.

The government has to ditch it's treasured surplus and inject more cash into the economy, whether it's by infrastructure acceleration, raising Newstart or the pension or some other means to get people spending and raise confidence, otherwise the slide will continue.


----------



## Jack Aubrey (23 January 2020)

SirRumpole said:


> I think interest rate cuts are now counter productive.
> 
> People have woken up to the fact that cuts are needed because the economy is cr@p, and they are saving as much as they can in case the economy goes even more belly up and they lose their jobs.
> 
> The government has to ditch it's treasured surplus and inject more cash into the economy, whether it's by infrastructure acceleration, raising Newstart or the pension or some other means to get people spending and raise confidence, otherwise the slide will continue.



Which, of course, is exactly what the RBA has been saying.  I would think that the Government's surplus for this FY is out the window now anyway with the bushfire response (although how much is actually being spent is an open question).


----------



## greggles (23 January 2020)

SirRumpole said:


> The government has to ditch it's treasured surplus and inject more cash into the economy, whether it's by infrastructure acceleration, raising Newstart or the pension or some other means to get people spending and raise confidence, otherwise the slide will continue.




Getting it into the hands of low income earners will almost guarantee it goes straight back into the economy. Those with a surplus of capital will just sit on any extra. You don't want savers, you want spenders.


----------



## Toyota Lexcen (23 January 2020)

Hopefully they raise just the Aged Pension. 

Newstart and a lot on Disability Pension shouldn't get anything.


----------



## sptrawler (23 January 2020)

SirRumpole said:


> I think interest rate cuts are now counter productive.
> 
> People have woken up to the fact that cuts are needed because the economy is cr@p, and they are saving as much as they can in case the economy goes even more belly up and they lose their jobs.
> 
> The government has to ditch it's treasured surplus and inject more cash into the economy, whether it's by infrastructure acceleration, raising Newstart or the pension or some other means to get people spending and raise confidence, otherwise the slide will continue.



I personally think the federal government should give grants to the states, to accelerate the HV transmission network upgrade, the bottle neck being caused with renewables requires freeing up from what I've read.


----------



## tinhat (23 January 2020)

Toyota Lexcen said:


> Hopefully they raise just the Aged Pension.
> 
> Newstart and a lot on Disability Pension shouldn't get anything.




I've been thinking about a few options of what to do with the uneconomic excess of old people too.

1. Raise the old age pension but make receiving it conditional on either

a) handing over the title deeds to your home to the state (with security of tenure until you die) or
b) agreeing to be euthanized at a reasonable age or
c) agreeing that after you get to a certain age you will be euthanised if you require any major health care on the public purse (eg; breaking a hip once you are over 80 is immediate euthenazia).

2. Give everyone over retirement age the pension without any means testing for income or assets but only allow income tax deduction of money going into super, concessional tax of income on money in super and concessional tax on taking money out of super as a pension. Scrap franking credits.


----------



## Humid (23 January 2020)

The government will need to bring forward their policies they took to the election

Bahahaha


----------



## Humid (23 January 2020)

tinhat said:


> I've been thinking about a few options of what to do with the uneconomic excess of old people too.
> 
> 1. Raise the old age pension but make receiving it conditional on either
> 
> ...




I think you might need more than a tin hat
I'm thinking concrete bunker


----------



## Humid (23 January 2020)

Toyota Lexcen said:


> Hopefully they raise just the Aged Pension.
> 
> Newstart and a lot on Disability Pension shouldn't get anything.




You and Tin hat should form a coalition
We have plenty of gas


----------



## Smurf1976 (23 January 2020)

greggles said:


> You don't want savers, you want spenders.



Long term the economy needs both unless we actually want literally everything owned by foreigners.

Short term though, to get things going, well it’s either consumers or startup business displacing imports or selling overseas that are going to do that.


----------



## Smurf1976 (23 January 2020)

greggles said:


> What the pull out makes me think is that Kaufland's analysis led them to believe that retail is going to get worse in Australia. Why else would they pull out after spending $500 million?



That’s my thinking also.

They’re a big business throwing away a fair chunk of the $500 million they’ve spent with no prospect of getting that back.

They must have information now that they didn’t have previously and it seems more likely that’s going to be a change of underlying circumstances than simply a prior oversight on their part.

I’ve bought one thing there once but that was in Germany. Couldn’t understand a word the checkout operator said but I did conclude from the receipt there’s two separate taxes on top of the price shown on the shelf.


----------



## Smurf1976 (23 January 2020)

SirRumpole said:


> I think interest rate cuts are now counter productive.




Agreed there. First because it just confirms what the masses suspect anyway when the RBA, one of relatively few organisms which still seems to be held in reasonably high regard these days, does something clearly intended to try and prop up a flagging economy.

That past such attempts haven’t been successful, and that the RBA’s call for government to change approach has been ignored, adds to that. The RBA’s been sounding the alarm for quite some time now, doing what they can, but government refuses to heed the message and that’s reasonably well know to anyone who simply watches the news.

Second because a not insignificant % of the population loses financially from interest rate cuts. Either they’ve got cash in the bank or they’re intending to buy a house the price of which is pushed up.


----------



## tinhat (23 January 2020)

Humid said:


> I think you might need more than a tin hat
> I'm thinking concrete bunker



I've got one of those and 250,000 litres of tank water which I will double over time. Bushfire is a big issue where I live and I love living in nature and I am deeply grateful to be living on Dharawal land immersed in that culture which is all around my local landscape. I will be handing over my land title to the custodians of the this land when I die.

I'm open to all reform proposals but there is one thing that is certain, which is that significant tax reform is needed in Australia and has been for decades now. So, if older people aren't prepared to be part of that then I think it is inevitable that they are going to be euthanized one way or another. Right now, old people in nursing homes are sitting in their own feces with open bed sores drugged up so they don't cause trouble.

What I do not understand is why the young people, what every we call them (millennials?) are not in open revolt right now.

All the above is just focused on the structure of fiscal affairs. So no need to even start on the environmental issues.


----------



## tinhat (23 January 2020)

tinhat said:


> I've got one of those and 250,000 litres of tank water which I will double over time. Bushfire is a big issue where I live and I love living in nature and I am deeply grateful to be living on Dharawal land immersed in that culture which is all around my local landscape. I will be handing over my land title to the custodians of the this land when I die.
> 
> I'm open to all reform proposals but there is one thing that is certain, which is that significant tax reform is needed in Australia and has been for decades now. So, if older people aren't prepared to be part of that then I think it is inevitable that they are going to be euthanized one way or another. Right now, old people in nursing homes are sitting in their own feces with open bed sores drugged up so they don't cause trouble.
> 
> ...




And people are worried about the state of retail. I'm laughing out of my arse.


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## Smurf1976 (23 January 2020)

Smurf1976 said:


> the RBA, one of relatively few organisms




That should have read organizations


----------



## Smurf1976 (23 January 2020)

tinhat said:


> I'm open to all reform proposals but there is one thing that is certain, which is that significant tax reform is needed in Australia and has been for decades now. So, if older people aren't prepared to be part of that




I think you've actually answered the question there.

The older half of the population has seen quite a few things "reformed" have learned that "reforming" anything tends to mean the price goes up and the quality goes down.

That being so, well it's no wonder they're not too keen on having anything else "reformed".


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## aus_trader (23 January 2020)

tinhat said:


> And people are worried about the state of retail. I'm laughing out of my arse.



Generally I like your stuff tinhat, including comparing stocks vs ex girlfriends which I thought was funny. But some of the views you have are extreme man, even scary. Hope you don't form a party as Humid suggested 
With regards to retail numbers, people tend to under-estimate it's impact. I think it's similar to the canary in the coal mine.


----------



## Smurf1976 (23 January 2020)

aus_trader said:


> With regards to retail numbers, people tend to under-estimate it's impact. I think it's similar to the canary in the coal mine.



I think it's a bit like a doctor checking your temperature.

It's an easy to check indicator and a warning sign of deeper problems.


----------



## aus_trader (23 January 2020)

Smurf1976 said:


> I think it's a bit like a doctor checking your temperature.
> 
> It's an easy to check indicator and a warning sign of deeper problems.




Yep, similar thinking 

And as far as I could tell the numbers are real coming from retail, unlike employment figures which can be fudged.


----------



## Smurf1976 (24 January 2020)

aus_trader said:


> And as far as I could tell the numbers are real coming from retail, unlike employment figures which can be fudged.



Something that would be interesting is if there's any proper data for the total value of purchases from overseas retailers?

That would answer the question as to whether the money's going to someone on the other side of the world or if consumers simply aren't spending it at all?


----------



## aus_trader (24 January 2020)

Smurf1976 said:


> Something that would be interesting is if there's any proper data for the total value of purchases from overseas retailers?
> 
> That would answer the question as to whether the money's going to someone on the other side of the world or if consumers simply aren't spending it at all?



Yeah, that would be really interesting to see, but really hard to track as well with online purchases capable of buying goods globally.

It could be that consumers aren't spending at all as well. As other fellow commenters said RBA over-stimulation message of cutting rates down to near -ve levels have sent the wrong message and people are worried as to why they need to go to such extreme measures if things are jolly good down under ?


----------



## Smurf1976 (24 January 2020)

aus_trader said:


> Yeah, that would be really interesting to see, but really hard to track as well with online purchases capable of buying goods globally.



I'd expect the banks would be able to extract some data from customer accounts but that privacy rules might preclude it?

I mean if someone's buying from overseas then ultimately the money's coming out of a bank account at some point so it should be possible I'd think.


----------



## tinhat (24 January 2020)

aus_trader said:


> Generally I like your stuff tinhat, including comparing stocks vs ex girlfriends which I thought was funny. But some of the views you have are extreme man, even scary. Hope you don't form a party as Humid suggested
> With regards to retail numbers, people tend to under-estimate it's impact. I think it's similar to the canary in the coal mine.




Extreme is being a child stuck in a concentration camp thousands of miles from your family with no clothes and no hope, cold and lonely and vulnerable. If I am extreme it is because I am aware of what I have and what others don't.


----------



## sptrawler (24 January 2020)

tinhat said:


> I've got one of those and 250,000 litres of tank water which I will double over time. Bushfire is a big issue where I live and I love living in nature and I am deeply grateful to be living on Dharawal land immersed in that culture which is all around my local landscape. I will be handing over my land title to the custodians of the this land when I die.
> 
> I'm open to all reform proposals but there is one thing that is certain, which is that significant tax reform is needed in Australia and has been for decades now. So, if older people aren't prepared to be part of that then I think it is inevitable that they are going to be euthanized one way or another. Right now, old people in nursing homes are sitting in their own feces with open bed sores drugged up so they don't cause trouble.
> 
> ...



There is a reason the young arent revolting, a lot are sitting on their bums, playing warcraft and getting bedsores of their own.lol


----------



## aus_trader (24 January 2020)

tinhat said:


> Extreme is being a child stuck in a concentration camp thousands of miles from your family with no clothes and no hope, cold and lonely and vulnerable. If I am extreme it is because I am aware of what I have and what others don't.



That's another way to look at it, but I wasn't going to include anything regarding to children as it is a very emotive subject, even looking at off-shore processing of children etc...

I was referring to your comments mainly regarding nuking off the old. What I find really interesting is how the West sees the old compared to how the East sees (or used to see) the old. The West sees the old as a burden on society, an unproductive pension/tax sucking mob that should be institutionalised and locked up in nursing homes, allowed to rot in their own faeces as you mentioned and accordingly euthanised if you had your way. So that's the scary bit I was referring to. The East on the other hand used to see the elderly as Wise Old members of the society to whom people paid respect to and learnt from. Although times are slowly changing as the Eastern are becoming more Westernised...


----------



## sptrawler (24 January 2020)

Smurf1976 said:


> Something that would be interesting is if there's any proper data for the total value of purchases from overseas retailers?
> 
> That would answer the question as to whether the money's going to someone on the other side of the world or if consumers simply aren't spending it at all?



That data will come out probably in 12 months time, a lot of overseas suppliers have only recently signed up to collect gst for the ato, so it will take time for the data to be correlated.
But I do know anyone who owns a Jeep, buys their parts from the U.S.
The other thing that is coming into play IMO is ebay and aliexpress, up untill recently purchasing items from China direct took forever to arrive if at all, recently the delivery time is down to about two weeks. So something has changed, either in their postal service or ours.
With regard the U.S I know parts for my car arrive within 7 days.
So it does put a lot on pressure on local retailers.
I think Aussie retail is a space not to be in at the moment.


----------



## tinhat (24 January 2020)

I'm sure if they learn to behave themselves then there is something useful we can find for them to do. All joking aside... Well actually, I'm only half joking. It's as if all generations see the other generations as being over entitled. I'm only being half facetious because I think there is a lot of intergenerational reckoning that needs to happen.

For several years I ran a thing where the young kiddies came into the local community garden along with parents who could get time off during school hours and older folk too. I taught those kids a thing or two.

So I agree with you but if the old people are going to get uppity with their franking credits and such then as far as I am concerned they can sit in their feces. Those sorts are probably going to have kids who don't care much about them anyway.


----------



## tinhat (24 January 2020)

Oh and I am serious about the euthanizing of old people it's going to happen. It's just plain demographics. Sorry about that. We are apes after all.


----------



## sptrawler (24 January 2020)

tinhat said:


> I'm sure if they learn to behave themselves then there is something useful we can find for them to do. All joking aside... Well actually, I'm only half joking. It's as if all generations see the other generations as being over entitled. I'm only being half facetious because I think there is a lot of intergenerational reckoning that needs to happen.
> 
> For several years I ran a thing where the young kiddies came into the local community garden along with parents who could get time off during school hours and older folk too. I taught those kids a thing or two.
> 
> So I agree with you but if the old people are going to get uppity with their franking credits and such then as far as I am concerned they can sit in their feces. Those sorts are probably going to have kids who don't care much about them anyway.



As long as the kids are prepared to go bush to get a job and dont expecf their first house to be better than my last house I wouldnt have a problem foregoing my franking credits.
So if a young person is unemployed in Sydney and there are jobs they are qualified for in Broken Hill, they are given assistance but must take it, ill give up my franking cre dits to pay for that. At least it will stop us having to bring in 457s and backpackers to do the jobs.
By the way I have a 40 year old son who would rather be on newstart in Perth than go bush to get a job, so I do know how hard it is, and yes I do have trouble dealing with him. And yes he does feel entitled.


----------



## sptrawler (24 January 2020)

tinhat said:


> Oh and I am serious about the euthanizing of old people it's going to happen. It's just plain demographics. Sorry about that. We are apes after all.



I think the right to chose euthanasia is probably going to sort out a lot of the age related problems, but I bet your Mum is nervous. Lol


----------



## Smurf1976 (24 January 2020)

tinhat said:


> It's as if all generations see the other generations as being over entitled.




I think the big problem between generations is a failure to fully understand the facts of the situation as it applies to others.

Oldies who fail to grasp that in 2020 phone calls are effectively free but houses are ludicrously expensive and that even professional jobs are difficult to get.

Young people who fail to grasp the reality that whilst rich people are typically older, most older people aren't rich and most were never part of any government either.

Reality is that most would have a very different view if they made the effort to fully understand the detail of the other's situation.



> So I agree with you but if the old people are going to get uppity with their franking credits and such then as far as I am concerned they can sit in their feces.



The point there is that one group in society didn't see it as reasonable that they paid a higher rate of tax than anyone else on the same income.

It's a classic example of my point in that if younger people did the maths, actually did the maths for real, then they'd immediately see the discrepancy and the point being made.


----------



## Smurf1976 (24 January 2020)

tinhat said:


> Oh and I am serious about the euthanizing of old people it's going to happen. It's just plain demographics. Sorry about that. We are apes after all.



I'm in favour of it for reasons of avoiding pain and suffering and so on but definitely not as a purely economic measure, that's an incredibly slippery slope in my opinion.


----------



## Smurf1976 (24 January 2020)

sptrawler said:


> By the way I have a 40 year old son who would rather be on newstart in Perth than go bush to get a job, so I do know how hard it is, and yes I do have trouble dealing with him. And yes he does feel entitled.




Is the situation in Perth really that bad that there's no option for work locally?


----------



## qldfrog (24 January 2020)

Smurf1976 said:


> That should have read organizations



You meant organisations ;-)


----------



## qldfrog (24 January 2020)

aus_trader said:


> That's another way to look at it, but I wasn't going to include anything regarding to children as it is a very emotive subject, even looking at off-shore processing of children etc...
> 
> I was referring to your comments mainly regarding nuking off the old. What I find really interesting is how the West sees the old compared to how the East sees (or used to see) the old. The West sees the old as a burden on society, an unproductive pension/tax sucking mob that should be institutionalised and locked up in nursing homes, allowed to rot in their own faeces as you mentioned and accordingly euthanised if you had your way. So that's the scary bit I was referring to. The East on the other hand used to see the elderly as Wise Old members of the society to whom people paid respect to and learnt from. Although times are slowly changing as the Eastern are becoming more Westernised...



I doubt @tinhat will ever see wisdom in old men, he knows better .
Do not worry, even if unaware, he will become an old fart too and become one of US, you know the despicables


----------



## qldfrog (24 January 2020)

Smurf1976 said:


> It's a classic example of my point in that if younger people did the maths, actually did the maths for real, then they'd immediately see the discrepancy and the point being made.



That is the overall problem
From being uneducated,dumb or just plain lazy, people just jump on the bandwagon without even doing their own thinking .
Valid for all generations and side of politics
You see this with @tinhat comments but also on the greeness (less) of EV in Australia, the co2 causing GW scam, bushfires etc etc
Get the raw data and do your own conclusion, not premashed articles be it from Guardian or Murdoch, or FB.
We discuss at length about data bias, and we all suffer from it via the news
This is the reason we care more about retail health than gov GDP or unemployment figures
We have a brain, and if here, usually some knowledge: let's use it


----------



## sptrawler (24 January 2020)

Smurf1976 said:


> Is the situation in Perth really that bad that there's no option for work locally?



Most of the trade based work is in the bush, not much project or building work going on in the city, there is still a glut of houses from the 2015 bust.


----------



## Humid (24 January 2020)

tinhat said:


> I've got one of those and 250,000 litres of tank water which I will double over time. Bushfire is a big issue where I live and I love living in nature and I am deeply grateful to be living on Dharawal land immersed in that culture which is all around my local landscape. I will be handing over my land title to the custodians of the this land when I die.
> 
> I'm open to all reform proposals but there is one thing that is certain, which is that significant tax reform is needed in Australia and has been for decades now. So, if older people aren't prepared to be part of that then I think it is inevitable that they are going to be euthanized one way or another. Right now, old people in nursing homes are sitting in their own feces with open bed sores drugged up so they don't cause trouble.
> 
> ...




I think the have nots will rise sooner rather than later,with social media it wouldn’t be too hard to get it going
Trickle down economics,gig economy,penalty rates
How about we train our own before we open the front door


----------



## Humid (24 January 2020)

I found Tinhat.....

https://www.thesun.co.uk/news/10808239/couple-accused-starving-landlord-2m-fortune/


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## Johny5 (25 January 2020)

qldfrog said:


> Welcome to the world of chinese manufacturing.
> When the inbetween get removed, it is very cheap and competitive.wait till the effects are felt for cars, housing



Its just a matter of time before one of the bespoke housing factories (as used in China/Japan) sets up in Australia, or they start shipping whole houses here flatpack style. The price of these houses are amazingly low and I hear the quality is pretty good. The only problem is that the banks are reluctant to approve loans for these types of houses. 

Also cars at sub $10K (i think more like $8K), I don't know how companies like Teslsa can compete with the onslaught of electric cars coming in the next couple of years from China.


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## Smurf1976 (25 January 2020)

qldfrog said:


> Get the raw data



This for pretty much everything.

If it's something of importance then it's worth getting the proper data not just accepting someone else's conclusion, especially when that person has zero relevant qualifications or practical experience relating to the subject (eg the average journalist).


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## moXJO (25 January 2020)

sptrawler said:


> Most of the trade based work is in the bush, not much project or building work going on in the city, there is still a glut of houses from the 2015 bust.



There's a current disconnect in 40 year olds from work. Not sure if it's always been that way but a lot that I know simply have stopped working. Midlife crisis perhaps?


----------



## moXJO (25 January 2020)

Smurf1976 said:


> I'm in favour of it for reasons of avoiding pain and suffering and so on but definitely not as a purely economic measure, that's an incredibly slippery slope in my opinion.



I agree.
Economic reasons.... that's losing all humanity. Take better care of your family members people.


----------



## qldfrog (25 January 2020)

moXJO said:


> There's a current disconnect in 40 year olds from work. Not sure if it's always been that way but a lot that I know simply have stopped working. Midlife crisis perhaps?



40 y :
You work for 
a wife who has around a 33pc chance of creaming you in a divorce
Teenage kids fees and pocket money who play a Greta running power bills up the sky and do zip
Ato who will happily get 40 to 50 pc of your money, and this is seen as normal, while you are insulted as a bastard
And if over the previous, a mortgage...
And 50pc of the population who think making money is shameful...
Yeap, Australia the land of the free.
Why bother if you can have a roof on your head and food drinks....


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## fergee (25 January 2020)

Johny5 said:


> Its just a matter of time before one of the bespoke housing factories (as used in China/Japan) sets up in Australia, or they start shipping whole houses here flatpack style. The price of these houses are amazingly low and I hear the quality is pretty good. The only problem is that the banks are reluctant to approve loans for these types of houses.



Im currently living in Japan and confirm building a house here is a lot cheaper than NZ and Aussie. There is a ton of different options and features you can choose form and they get them put up so fast its unreal. 

The quality is not as good as most builds in NZ/Aus and often the materials/finishes are a bit "cheap" and the house is only being built to last for 30 years although they do last longer than that if you maintain them which people dont do here. 

I lived in a Sekusi(pronounced sexy) house for a while and the aftermarket service is amazing if anything goes wrong its under warranty for decades. They offer packaged renovations to update the bathroom and kitchen etc. The companies probably make good money off the service and aftermarket sales. Panasonic houses are amazing in regards to the amount of future proofing they are building in currently, it is very well thought out for later additions/sales once 5G is introduced. 

IMO this building model should be copied and pasted into Australasia.


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## Humid (25 January 2020)

fergee said:


> Im currently living in Japan and confirm building a house here is a lot cheaper than NZ and Aussie. There is a ton of different options and features you can choose form and they get them put up so fast its unreal.
> 
> The quality is not as good as most builds in NZ/Aus and often the materials/finishes are a bit "cheap" and the house is only being built to last for 30 years although they do last longer than that if you maintain them which people dont do here.
> 
> ...




How does the block/house ratio size go
Quality....you only have to look around Perth suburbs where infill and subdivision to see poor quality buildings
All rendering to hide ordinary brick work
Double brick was a Perth standard where the external was all show quality
The medium density units look like tilt panel
Ghettos
Hideous coloured concrete paving no tree heat sinks
Who puts black tin on houses?
Who builds houses with no eaves in this heat

I need a drink


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## Smurf1976 (25 January 2020)

fergee said:


> I lived in a Sekusi(pronounced sexy) house for a while




If you'll pardon my slight crassness, that sounds like a good marketing term for the idea. Sexy house. Like it. 



> Panasonic houses




Panasonic builds houses in Japan? The same Panasonic company that makes TV's and air-conditioners and so on?

Well that's two things I've learned today.  

I thought it was radical enough when gas and electricity companies had a go at house building many years ago.


----------



## Smurf1976 (25 January 2020)

moXJO said:


> There's a current disconnect in 40 year olds from work. Not sure if it's always been that way but a lot that I know simply have stopped working. Midlife crisis perhaps?



Interesting.

What are they actually doing if not working?

Are they self funded or on welfare?


----------



## fergee (25 January 2020)

Smurf1976 said:


> If you'll pardon my slight crassness, that sounds like a good marketing term for the idea. Sexy house. Like it.
> 
> 
> 
> ...




Ha I had a good giggle when I first heard the name. 

Yep that Panasonic, its a massive conglomorate that makes everything from doors-batteries- power tools-lighting-houses/constrcition you name it. Its amazing the amount of things they do do here. 

I think because the Japanese economy has stagnated for so long that they just grew through acquisition and now have fingers in a lot of different pies.


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## fergee (25 January 2020)

Humid said:


> How does the block/house ratio size go
> Quality....you only have to look around Perth suburbs where infill and subdivision to see poor quality buildings
> All rendering to hide ordinary brick work
> Double brick was a Perth standard where the external was all show quality
> ...



The regs here are totally different and very unusual to say the least(from my perspective any way being a non Japanese). The houses basically touch each other, the front area is a car park and any remaining space out back is tiny. New builds are almost always 2+ stories. I would say 90% of the section is covered by the hose footprint most times and the section sizes are tiny. Theres also a lot of multiplexes here and apartments that are to small for a dog to live in but they are super cheap to rent. 

Most people tend to rent here. *No point buying if you dont have kids and house prices have been going down for 30 years. **Just put this in bold so it would sink in a bit..... houses do NOT go up forever.

The cladding is usually plastic faux brick sometimes they are plaster finished as they are cheaper and faster options. No one has grass lawns here maybe a couple of little trees but super low maintenance is what people want. 

The heat here in summer is insane too and the eaves are tiny on the new houses making any second floor an oven. Funny thing is the old school houses(pre 70s) had really good eaves and air flow inside is amazing although bloody freezing in winter. I guess when your house is hot/cold you need a Panasonic air conditioner


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## qldfrog (26 January 2020)

fergee said:


> The regs here are totally different and very unusual to say the least(from my perspective any way being a non Japanese). The houses basically touch each other, the front area is a car park and any remaining space out back is tiny. New builds are almost always 2+ stories. I would say 90% of the section is covered by the hose footprint most times and the section sizes are tiny. Theres also a lot of multiplexes here and apartments that are to small for a dog to live in but they are super cheap to rent.
> 
> Most people tend to rent here. *No point buying if you dont have kids and house prices have been going down for 30 years. **Just put this in bold so it would sink in a bit..... houses do NOT go up forever.
> 
> ...



 And i would say, in Japan, houses are a place to live, not as you mentioned rightly an investment, nor a status symbol
As a European, i do not like the throw away aspect, a cultural thing, but when i see the matchstick houses built now in Australia, i doubt there will be much left of these in 40y..whatever amount of reno are made.
In japan, it is purposely designed for a limited life and as such far less material intensive, lighter..great for earthquake..but obviously forget about fire rating these in the bush....


----------



## fergee (26 January 2020)

qldfrog said:


> And i would say, in Japan, houses are a place to live, not as you mentioned rightly an investment, nor a status symbol
> As a European, i do not like the throw away aspect, a cultural thing, but when i see the matchstick houses built now in Australia, i doubt there will be much left of these in 40y..whatever amount of reno are made.
> In japan, it is purposely designed for a limited life and as such far less material intensive, lighter..great for earthquake..but obviously forget about fire rating these in the bush....




Exactly houses are seen as homes not investments/speculation vehicles. Cars and clothes are more for status here and quite often peoples cars are worth more than their homes!

Houses are built to last a single life time, apartment's here are generally built to last longer though, and couples here would rather buy new off the plans. The limited life span of a house here keeps the construction industry ticking over as it employs 30%~ of the economy and planned obsolescence ensures people keep their jobs.

The earth quakes I have been in here were not a problem, the houses/apartments mostly have good EQ factoring built into the construction. 
Would these houses be good in a bush? Hell no! In saying that it wouldn't take much to adapt the materials and design to suit the locations requirements though.


----------



## finicky (26 January 2020)

I've only read a few posts this thread so far, so this is just a reaction to the thread header "Retail Wreckage".

Recently Tony Featherstone did one of his interesting articles on Nabtrade's website about the 'Homewares' sector. Not a sector that attracts me but obviously one where a medium term investor/trader can profit if he's able to pick the right companies near the bottom of a cycle. He starts off with a good quote that I will take away:

*"Macro news has a habit of encouraging bad investment decisions. Investors focus on top-down news and extrapolate it to all companies, overlooking opportunities or making rash decisions."*

Retail is supposed to be an avoid because of high household debt, stagnant wages, high housing costs, online competition from foreign giants, but in fact a number of ASX retail companies loosely categorised as 'homewares' outperformed the ASX200 Index over 2019 - Breville Group (BRG) for instance by a factor of 3x. But he also mentions: Nick Scali  (NCK), Temple and Webster (TPW) and Kogan (KGN). I notice from the charts that JB HiFi (JBH) had a great year and Harvey Norman (HVN) also a very good 2019.

His tip in this field for 2020 is Adairs (ADH). I'll post an Adairs specific excerpt over on that board.


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## tinhat (26 January 2020)

finicky said:


> I've only read a few posts this thread so far, so this is just a reaction to the thread header "Retail Wreckage".
> 
> Recently Tony Featherstone did one of his interesting articles on Nabtrade's website about the 'Homewares' sector. Not a sector that attracts me but obviously one where a medium term investor/trader can profit if he's able to pick the right companies near the bottom of a cycle. He starts off with a good quote that I will take away:
> 
> ...



People have been cocooning for decades now. It is a behaviour directly promoted by media so that the only empowerment people feel they have in their lives is within their cocoon of immediate gratification and safety. You don't even have to go out to eat or get food now. Once you are home safe from the tyranny of work you can binge on whatever you want in your own little cocoon.


----------



## tinhat (26 January 2020)

Humid said:


> I found Tinhat.....
> 
> https://www.thesun.co.uk/news/10808239/couple-accused-starving-landlord-2m-fortune/



I am not surprised that you read the Murdoch press. I am surprised, however, that looking through your entire post history, as far as I can tell, you have not made one post in a stock specific thread. However you get your kicks I suppose.


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## Humid (26 January 2020)

tinhat said:


> I am not surprised that you read the Murdoch press. I am surprised, however, that looking through your entire post history, as far as I can tell, you have not made one post in a stock specific thread. However you get your kicks I suppose.




Some get their kicks euthanizing old people


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## Humid (26 January 2020)

tinhat said:


> I am not surprised that you read the Murdoch press. I am surprised, however, that looking through your entire post history, as far as I can tell, you have not made one post in a stock specific thread. However you get your kicks I suppose.





Humid said:


> Some get their kicks euthanizing old people




As for stocks I tend to focus on things I know...which ain't much
But the last 2 companies I've worked for are FMG and Bhp currently
Done well out of both on the market
BHp are spending a motza on reliability on their Port load out
That tells me the tonnage is going to be ramped up from possibly South Flank
So I'm buying more

I'm often wrong


----------



## Humid (26 January 2020)

Humid said:


> Some get their kicks euthanizing old people



Let's start with your parents


----------



## moXJO (26 January 2020)

Smurf1976 said:


> Interesting.
> 
> What are they actually doing if not working?
> 
> Are they self funded or on welfare?



Self funded. 
A bit of a mix wealth wise.
Some can afford to retire, others have simply downsized, side hobby for extra income and living within their means.

 I don't know if they're happier. Seem a bit disconnected.


----------



## moXJO (27 January 2020)

To be honest, I semi retired at 40 as well. Enough of my hair brained schemes worked to back off. 
Every now and then an old customer will call and I'll do some work. But I'm over the grind.
That's not to say that I don't work. I generally have 3-4 things on the go. But damn if I'm not over 6-5 then bookwork when I got home.


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## qldfrog (27 January 2020)

I semi retired at 45ish as well , did a few project and startup at mad pace and retired fully since last year, as per @moXJO, a few consulting jobs from time to time but that is basically all.Never been so busy


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## tinhat (27 January 2020)

I kind of retired from IT in my 40s as well. I stopped working mainly because I got too busy with family matters and a couple of non-income making projects but also because I had burnt myself out a bit. I started to wind down and next thing I had stopped working (once you start knocking back jobs... it's hard to slow down the treadmill you either keep running or get flung off). At the time I said I was going on sabbatical but that was about eight years ago now. I would like to not have to work again but I reckon I am going to have to do something to make some pocket money eventually to do some traveling. I live a very simple life right now. I spend more time listening to birds than to humans which is nice. I haven't been overseas for ten years. All the relatives (grandmother, aunty) I used to visit overseas are dead now.


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## sptrawler (27 January 2020)

https://www.smh.com.au/business/com...p-but-online-roars-ahead-20200127-p53v6s.html
From the article:
_The slowdown in sales hasn't come as a surprise, with the country's retail sector rocked by a string of high-profile collapses and store closures in recent months and consumer confidence mired at one of its lowest points since the global financial crisis.

The figures provide more evidence of weaker Christmas sales, with some analysts concerned the success of the Black Friday weekend may have siphoned sales away from the key end-of-year period. Official data on retail sales for December is due to be released in early February.


Despite the dip, David Jones and Country Road's overall comparable sales were boosted by online sales at both brands.

Online sales at David Jones increased a whopping 61.8 per cent for the half, now making up 10.4 per cent of total sales for the department store. Country Road's growth was more muted, up 6.2 per cent, representing just under a quarter of the company's total sales_.


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## jbocker (30 January 2020)

I placed a comment in thread : Signs of the economy at the Street Level
Bakers Delight store closed in my local shop district, and I wondered if this was a more widespread issue. As it turns out  it is in Perth.
I wont repeat the detail but can read more on that thread. Page 70 #1395
What I ask in this thread are franchises becoming part of the wreckage that are not so obvious as are major stores shutting down.


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## aus_trader (31 January 2020)

I have read every single comment on this thread, even if some were less "Retail" related. My overall feeling from common wisdom of ASF members is: there is likely to be more pain in retail before an overall sector recovery.

So have removed the only retail stock (asx:BLX) that was in the consumer retail space from Speculative Stock Portfolio. By selling BLX which was in the red, it also turns out that the remaining open positions are in the green, which is a rare occurrence for the spec portfolio.


----------



## Dona Ferentes (31 January 2020)

jbocker said:


> What I ask in this thread are franchises becoming part of the wreckage that are not so obvious as are major stores shutting down.



Franchises are tricky because, I suspect, because the pain can be endured for longer, especially if the 'mom n pop' shop is the sole enterprise.

_Interesting issue to discuss!_


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## aus_trader (31 January 2020)

Dona Ferentes said:


> Franchises are tricky because, I suspect, because the pain can be endured for longer, especially if the 'mom n pop' shop is the sole enterprise.
> 
> _Interesting issue to discuss!_




But there are restrictions that can be applied by the parent firm on the individual franchise that could cripple them, so cutting costs to the bare bones or compromising on quality of product may be out of the question. However the good ones will usually come to work out a solution and may be even help the struggling franchisee. Also there are ongoing franchise fees as an extra overhead to consider.


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## tinhat (31 January 2020)

Dona Ferentes said:


> Franchises are tricky because, I suspect, because the pain can be endured for longer, especially if the 'mom n pop' shop is the sole enterprise.
> 
> _Interesting issue to discuss!_




Franchises are probably tricky because in many cases they are just forms of bonded capitalist slavery. Perhaps it's harder to throw in the towel knowing that means getting evicted from the family home that you put up as security to borrow the funds to buy the business in the first place. Walking into a Westfields food court is probably one of the most soul sapping experiences you can experience within the comfort of air-conditioning and artificial light.

It reminds me of all the politicians (those loyal "sons" of Doug Anthony) who pretend to care about their rural and country constituents, those hard working salt of the land farming families just like Barnaby of St Ignatius, yet somehow all the water rights end up in the hands of big agribusiness (some of them - the more selective harvests -  listed on the asx and often discussed here) and those good decent country politicians end up "retiring" into consulting to minerals and extractives.


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## jbocker (1 February 2020)

Dona Ferentes said:


> Franchises are tricky because, I suspect, because the pain can be endured for longer, especially if the 'mom n pop' shop is the sole enterprise.



Yes in the case of a radio talkback about Bakers Delight stores closing some previous owners called in. You have to play (and pay) by the rules. One rule that seemed ludicrous was you had to have FULL shelves right up to 5 o'clock, throwing out what was not sold. Interestingly one owner said that was not the real problem with the franchise, it was the fees that are paid up front regardless of how business is going. It seemed Everyone else gets paid before you cook any loaves.
The general public might not be aware of a general franchise demise as they may only be familiar with a few stores, it may not make the news unless collectively some big numbers of people are losing their jobs. This form of 'retail wreckage' may not be so noticeable.


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## aus_trader (1 February 2020)

tinhat said:


> Perhaps it's harder to throw in the towel knowing that means getting evicted from the family home that you put up as security to borrow the funds to buy the business in the first place.



Yes, that could complicate things rather than making the decision to close an unprofitable business...


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## sptrawler (3 February 2020)

Again another couple of examples of the changing demographics and tastes of the next generation, we have mentioned that the snob value that the baby boomers placed on some things has changed with following generations, this is having an effect on what they buy.
Unless the retail sector adjusts very quickly, there will be a lot of pain associated with retail.

https://www.heraldsun.com.au/motori...d/news-story/aa629193c7dc55822992196608c5f73d

https://www.wsj.com/articles/harley...orcycle-sales-in-u-s-11580215262?page=1&pos=1


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## qldfrog (3 February 2020)

sptrawler said:


> Again another couple of examples of the changing demographics and tastes of the next generation, we have mentioned that the snob value that the baby boomers placed on some things has changed with following generations, this is having an effect on what they buy.
> Unless the retail sector adjusts very quickly, there will be a lot of pain associated with retail.
> 
> https://www.heraldsun.com.au/motori...d/news-story/aa629193c7dc55822992196608c5f73d
> ...



Cars remain a dream in China and Asia overall so they are not disappearing, but Harley Davidson completely missed China.I do not remember seeing any decent motorbike there: roads not for them , the ride is freedom  fully out of Asian psyche, I think it is more not that their market is gone as it has changed location, and they are out of wack with the culture.
Try to imagine a 50kg 1.6m high Asian handling a Harvey.....
Cars in China, that's different, so many German luxury cars there, but limited in space and by cost


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## fergee (3 February 2020)

qldfrog said:


> Cars remain a dream in China and Asia overall so they are not disappearing, but Harley Davidson completely missed China.I do not remember seeing any decent motorbike there: roads not for them , the ride is freedom  fully out of Asian psyche, I think it is more not that their market is gone as it has changed location, and they are out of wack with the culture.
> Try to imagine a 50kg 1.6m high Asian handling a Harvey.....
> Cars in China, that's different, so many German luxury cars there, but limited in space and by cost



Anecdotally I see quite a few guys here in Japan riding Harleys and having the "American spirit" on the weekends. Electric Harleys may be a game changer in the chinese market, in the future, as there are much tougher restrictions there in regards to pollution and the government banning bikes in some cities.


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## qldfrog (3 February 2020)

fergee said:


> Anecdotally I see quite a few guys here in Japan riding Harleys and having the "American spirit" on the weekends. Electric Harleys may be a game changer in the chinese market, in the future, as there are much tougher restrictions there in regards to pollution and the government banning bikes in some cities.



could be the Japanese bad boy style, but not in China as far as I have seen;As you know, big differences in culture


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## fergee (3 February 2020)

qldfrog said:


> could be the Japanese bad boy style, but not in China as far as I have seen;As you know, big differences in culture



The Japanese bad boy bikes, "bosozoku" give it a google it is pretty funny, are JDM  and are ridden mostly by young fellas, Harleys are 30y/o +


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## Smurf1976 (4 February 2020)

Something I'm wondering about is the mainstream media?

Printed newspapers and magazines are stuffed as a business and TV isn't doing much better, radio's the only form of traditional media that seems to  still have much of its relevance intact although even that has reduced to some extent.

If there's a broader economic contraction with retail then doesn't that mean less advertising? Will that push one of the TV networks over the edge into collapse for example?

Just a thought which occurred whilst pondering that a decline usually claims "someone big".


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## qldfrog (4 February 2020)

Smurf1976 said:


> Something I'm wondering about is the mainstream media?
> 
> Printed newspapers and magazines are stuffed as a business and TV isn't doing much better, radio's the only form of traditional media that seems to  still have much of its relevance intact although even that has reduced to some extent.
> 
> ...



For what it is worth, my son in his 20s never listens to radio, always on Spotify.
Never watching TV either
I still listen to radio but gave up on tv..netflix


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## moXJO (4 February 2020)

qldfrog said:


> For what it is worth, my son in his 20s never listens to radio, always on Spotify.
> Never watching TV either
> I still listen to radio but gave up on tv..netflix



In the car is the only placeI I listen to it. Younger kids just Bluetooth their phones to the radio. Funny, my wife was just complaining about all the ads on radio.


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## qldfrog (4 February 2020)

Yes i bypass ads no radio during work/school drive, when driving: ads starting triggers station change.how sustainable is that?


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## sptrawler (4 February 2020)

Smurf1976 said:


> Something I'm wondering about is the mainstream media?
> 
> Printed newspapers and magazines are stuffed as a business and TV isn't doing much better, radio's the only form of traditional media that seems to  still have much of its relevance intact although even that has reduced to some extent.
> 
> If there's a broader economic contraction with retail then doesn't that mean less advertising? Will that push one of the TV networks over the edge into collapse for example?



The T.V model will change IMO, ATM they rely on advertising money to survive, in the future this will be a supported by a subscription model.
Once the NBN is completely rolled out, the T.V networks will move the high margin content onto it.
It will be legislated they have to keep one channel on free to air, eg 2,7,9,10, but the remainder 7mate, etc will be pay to view over the cable.
This will have a two fold effect, one those who don't want or use the internet, still get 'some' free to air and secondly it frees up more bandwidth that can be sold into 5G.
The pay to view model will reduce the pressure on the T.V stations to fight with the online competition for advertising dollars and it becomes a 'user pays' system.
They don't put a sign in the top left hand corner of your T.V, saying "Live and Free" for nothing, it is telling you one of the two is going to disappear my guess is the "Free" bit.
That will be another reason the 'service' charge is going to happen, because when the T.V stations move to that model a lot of people will say, "stuff it I will go wireless and disconnect the NBN.
Like I've always said, the NBN always was a disgrace, the telecommunications companies should have had to put it in, all that has happened is we have been made to pay for the rod that they will whip our backs with.
Just my opinion.


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## sptrawler (4 February 2020)

moXJO said:


> In the car is the only placeI I listen to it. Younger kids just Bluetooth their phones to the radio. Funny, my wife was just complaining about all the ads on radio.



We only listen to Smooth FM on the DAB radio no ads, I don't know how long that will last for, but good ATM.


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## PZ99 (4 February 2020)

Triple M classic rock DAB for me - most of it is voice tracked, so it's cheap to run.


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## aus_trader (4 February 2020)

sptrawler said:


> Again another couple of examples of the changing demographics and tastes of the next generation, we have mentioned that the snob value that the baby boomers placed on some things has changed with following generations, this is having an effect on what they buy.
> Unless the retail sector adjusts very quickly, there will be a lot of pain associated with retail.
> 
> https://www.heraldsun.com.au/motori...d/news-story/aa629193c7dc55822992196608c5f73d
> ...




Good articles sptrawler, I think you are right about that, i.e. the peak of automotive sales. I am intrigued by all the new cars on the road and hardly any older cars unless it is some collectible or an old muscle car driven by an enthusiast. If you simplify it down, if everybody has bought a new car and they don't plan to replace it straight away (at least hold it for 5 to 10 years), then it's likely there will be a glut of new cars at showrooms and dealers. There will be a few fleet and business vehicle sales but perhaps not the mass general public buying frenzy, hence possibly reaching the peak.


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## qldfrog (4 February 2020)

Maybe already posted by some of my ignore list, but Colette brand of clothing apparels collapsed today


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## SirRumpole (4 February 2020)

Hey froggy, can you see this ? 

https://www.abc.net.au/news/2020-02...ette-hayman-voluntary-administration/11928510


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## qldfrog (4 February 2020)

y


SirRumpole said:


> Hey froggy, can you see this ?
> 
> https://www.abc.net.au/news/2020-02...ette-hayman-voluntary-administration/11928510



yes SirRumpole, you are not in my ignore list


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## Smurf1976 (9 February 2020)

I see that the inevitable has happened and K&D Warehouse in Hobart is closing.

It's not a business collapse, they've sold the site (an entire block in the CBD) for redevelopment so it's a planned exit, but it's somewhat a "how not to" lesson in running a business.

K&D's history goes back to 1902 but the point of significance is that the Warehouse was opened ~9 years before another company, Bunnings, decided to adopt the same concept for retailing hardware in Australia.

Had K&D aggressively expanded at the time, they could easily have ended up as a national chain indeed they did at the peak have multiple stores in Tas and a few in Victoria. Reality though is that Bunnings did it better and expanded far more aggressively. End result is there's at least 3 Bunnings stores in Hobart (well, there were 3 when I left Tas in 2018 so I assume there's still 3) and plenty of others around the state and around the country but K&D is now kaput.

Moral of the story - if you've got an idea that nobody else is doing then act quickly before someone else gains a foothold.


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## sptrawler (9 February 2020)

The Bunnings, Wesfarmers story, is an amazing read, they have been a great investment, from Franked Income Fund to Wesfarmers great investment. Still hold and probably always will, I can't see the catch.com purchase being a backward step either.
https://www.bunnings.com.au/about-us/history

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Wesfarmers


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## aus_trader (10 February 2020)

sptrawler said:


> The Bunnings, Wesfarmers story, is an amazing read, they have been a great investment, from Franked Income Fund to Wesfarmers great investment. Still hold and probably always will, I can't see the catch.com purchase being a backward step either.
> https://www.bunnings.com.au/about-us/history
> 
> https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Wesfarmers




Interesting sptrawler. What do you think about the Wesfarmers Ltd (WES) decision to spin off Coles supermarket chain, currently trading as Coles Group Ltd (COL) ? Is it to get out of supermarket retail due to too much competition (Coles +Woolies +Aldi +IGA +Costco / (-ve Kaufland)) ?


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## sptrawler (10 February 2020)

aus_trader said:


> Interesting sptrawler. What do you think about the Wesfarmers Ltd (WES) decision to spin off Coles supermarket chain, currently trading as Coles Group Ltd (COL) ? Is it to get out of supermarket retail due to too much competition (Coles +Woolies +Aldi +IGA +Costco / (-ve Kaufland)) ?



I think WES spun it off as there is very little room for rapid growth in that space, as you say there is a lot of competition, it is low margin and has big overheads. By the way I still have the COL shares.
The purchase of catch.com probably has more upside, with much smaller overheads and a much smaller workforce. 
How they grow catch will be interesting, but it should intergrate with K Mart, Bunnings, Target etc with the click and collect pickup facility.
However online is also becoming crowded, 25 million population isn't a large population to support all these retailers.


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## aus_trader (10 February 2020)

sptrawler said:


> By the way I still have the COL shares.




Coles Group Ltd (COL) has had a nice run in the share price since listing. Good on ya


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## moXJO (10 February 2020)

Toll was hacked and they didn't pay the ransom. A lot of people not getting their deliveries (me included).


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## sptrawler (10 February 2020)

moXJO said:


> Toll was hacked and they didn't pay the ransom. A lot of people not getting their deliveries (me included).



Japan Post wont be happy, I wonder if the I.T system came with TOLL, or Japan Post put their own in when they bought Toll out?


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## aus_trader (10 February 2020)

Off topic and just my opinion: Should not pay ransom as it sets the example of giving into evil monsters of the society. Same with hackers/kidnappers/catfishers. Should make it ABSOLUTE law to get these monsters to pay a minimum of 10x of the amount asked as ransom if they are caught. Could be higher than 10x (+very long jail sentence) if ransom is asked for kidnapping kids etc (imagine the pain and suffering and worry of being assaulted/raped of your child through the whole ordeal !!)


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## sptrawler (10 February 2020)

George Calombaris' ailing food empire came crashing down on Monday with restaurants closed, administrators appointed and the celebrity chef's Toorak mansion put on the market
https://www.theage.com.au/national/...is-food-empire-collapses-20200210-p53zgl.html

Calombaris said he was "gutted" by what had happened to his business and apologised to his family, friends, staff, 400 of which will lose their jobs, and customers.
The administrators cited difficult trading conditions – in the wake of the company being rocked by a major underpayment scandal – as a reason for the collapse of the business.

Employees will be paid all entitlements owed, the administrators said.


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## sptrawler (10 February 2020)

aus_trader said:


> Off topic and just my opinion: Should not pay ransom as it sets the example of giving into evil monsters of the society. Same with hackers/kidnappers/catfishers. Should make it ABSOLUTE law to get these monsters to pay a minimum of 10x of the amount asked as ransom if they are caught. Could be higher than 10x (+very long jail sentence) if ransom is asked for kidnapping kids etc (imagine the pain and suffering and worry of being assaulted/raped of your child through the whole ordeal !!)



Unfortunately in Western Society today, there is very little respect for anything, so I think these problems are going to get worse before they get better. That is if they get better at all? 
Just take our media, they constantly harass anyone over anything be it a personality a politician, the royal family, respect is the last thing on anyone's mind.
Just my opinion.


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## jbocker (10 February 2020)

Smurf1976 said:


> Moral of the story - if you've got an idea that nobody else is doing then act quickly before someone else gains a foothold.



Another Moral of the story is if you ARE going to copy the idea you had better do a brilliant job of it or have a profound point of difference (copy fail: Masters Home Improvement)


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## jbocker (11 February 2020)

sptrawler said:


> The administrators cited difficult trading conditions – in the wake of the company being rocked by a major underpayment scandal – as a reason for the collapse of the business.



I wonder how much of it was market conditions rather than significant numbers of people choosing not to dine there after that disgusting underpayment scandal. Now you are paying the price George!


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## sptrawler (11 February 2020)

jbocker said:


> I wonder how much of it was market conditions rather than significant numbers of people choosing not to dine there after that disgusting underpayment scandal. Now you are paying the price George!



Yes, unfortunately so are the 400 people who work for him, I wonder if the underpayment was intentional or accidental?


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## sptrawler (11 February 2020)

The state of the car industry in regional W.A, isn't much better than the housing industry there.

https://www.abc.net.au/news/2020-02...ruggling-to-survive/11940410?section=business
From the article:
Data from Consumer Protection shows 136 motor vehicle dealers' licences have been handed back in regional WA in the past five years.
Eighteen dealerships returned their licences last year alone, including businesses in Geraldton, Bunbury, Donnybrook, Wagin, Halls Creek, Kununurra, Kalgoorlie-Boulder, Esperance, Dunsborough and Busselton


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## moXJO (11 February 2020)

Restaurants are doing it tough in current market conditions have been for a while. Sydney Chinese restaurants are all going broke at the moment with the corona going through.


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## jbocker (11 February 2020)

sptrawler said:


> Yes, unfortunately so are the 400 people who work for him, I wonder if the underpayment was intentional or accidental?



I understand from ABC reporting that the backpay has been done. However that is scant reward for those who remained and have since lost their jobs. Yes you are quite right it is much more than George paying the price.


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## Toyota Lexcen (11 February 2020)

George Columbaris

Have been near the one in Brighton quite often over the past few months and the place is really down on clientele.

Church st will be bustling with people


sptrawler said:


> George Calombaris' ailing food empire came crashing down on Monday with restaurants closed, administrators appointed and the celebrity chef's Toorak mansion put on the market
> https://www.theage.com.au/national/...is-food-empire-collapses-20200210-p53zgl.html
> 
> Calombaris said he was "gutted" by what had happened to his business and apologised to his family, friends, staff, 400 of which will lose their jobs, and customers.
> ...




I been around the Brighton restaurant quite a bit the past few months and it has just been empty when the whole Church St precinct is bustling. Especially during AusOpen.

George warned about this last year.


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## sptrawler (11 February 2020)

jbocker said:


> I wonder how much of it was market conditions rather than significant numbers of people choosing not to dine there after that disgusting underpayment scandal. Now you are paying the price George!



A more comprehensive write up on George's implosion.

https://www.abc.net.au/news/2020-02...of-fair-work-rising-restaurant-costs/11952898


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## Dona Ferentes (11 February 2020)

sptrawler said:


> A more comprehensive write up on George's implosion.
> 
> https://www.abc.net.au/news/2020-02...of-fair-work-rising-restaurant-costs/11952898



love the outrage from the Unions







> Victorian Trades Hall Council secretary Luke Hilikari said the collapse was another blow to staff who had been underpaid by the company.
> 
> "First Calombaris rips off workers and owes them $7.8 million in wages and now they face losing their jobs," he said.



 because not one employee has ever phoned in for a "sickie" or otherwise diddled the boss


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## finicky (11 February 2020)

Well , at H1FY20, JB Hi-Fi (JBH) is another one that's *not wrecked* - not yet anyway. I remember Howard Coleman of TeamInvest, whose advice I respect fwiw,  Howard said maybe 6 years ago at a guess, how he would never invest in JB Hi-Fi because the management was richly rewarding themselves and doing accounting engineering. His lip was curling at the mention of JBH and it turned me well off. I think Roger Montgomery was going off them by that time too, that would almost be a contrarian signal for me today.

*HY20 Trading Performance
JB Hi-Fi Limited* 
• Total sales up 3.9% to $4.0 billion, with positive comparable sales growth across all three divisions;
• EBIT up 8.0% to $255.6 million;
• Net profit after tax (NPAT) up 8.9% to $174.4 million (Statutory NPAT up 6.6% to $170.6 million);
• EPS up 8.9% to 151.8 cps; and
• Interim dividend up 8.8% to 99 cps.
Group CEO, Richard Murray, said “We are pleased to report *record sales and earnings in the first half*, with 
JB HI-FI Australia and The Good Guys recording strong earnings growth


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## Smurf1976 (11 February 2020)

sptrawler said:


> Yes, unfortunately so are the 400 people who work for him, I wonder if the underpayment was intentional or accidental?



Thing is, with restaurants there’s massive choice so if there’s any suggestion that there’s a reason to avoid a particular one well then there’s plenty of others to choose from. 

Most would rationalise any impact on staff etc on the basis that they don’t know them personally and for every loser at the place they’re avoiding there’s a winner somewhere else.


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## Smurf1976 (11 February 2020)

Dona Ferentes said:


> because not one employee has ever phoned in for a "sickie" or otherwise diddled the boss



My observation is that crap management and crap employees tend to stick together despite trying to so the opposite.

Good managers don’t keep crap employees and good employees have no need to work for bad managers.

Bring good management into a business and ultimately they end up with good workers. One way or another the bad ones leave.

Bring bad management into the same business and ultimately they end up with bad employees. The good ones either leave or simply stop giving a damn.

Underpayment, abusing sick leave, any sort of referring to the fine print of an Award rather than following the spirit and intent. Etc. Anyone who’s any good, either managers or workers, gets rid of those who engage in that sort of nonsense.


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## Smurf1976 (13 February 2020)

Not a specific retailer but I see that Panasonic are ceasing selling TV's in Australia.

Panasonic aren't going out of business and they'll still be selling TV's elsewhere in the world. That being so, I take it as a sign that their relatively higher end products aren't selling well in Australia. Either TV sales are struggling overall or consumers are going for cheaper products. Neither is a sign of overall consumer confidence. 

It's effective immediately apparently. All remaining stock will be sold and they'll honor all warranties in full but that's it, they're out of the market.


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## sptrawler (13 February 2020)

Another example of the changing demographics and changing tastes of the younger generation, as we have been saying, the times they are a changing.
The younger generation are moving away from their parents love of cars.

https://www.drive.com.au/news/frank...ors-after-68-years-123237.html?trackLink=SMH1


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## Smurf1976 (25 February 2020)

Fly365 Travel agency has gone into voluntary administration:

https://www.news.com.au/travel/trav...n/news-story/a5bbdafad75f204934eef5da54dfbcb2


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## SirRumpole (25 February 2020)

Smurf1976 said:


> Fly365 Travel agency has gone into voluntary administration:
> 
> https://www.news.com.au/travel/trav...n/news-story/a5bbdafad75f204934eef5da54dfbcb2




Unsatisfactory, leaving customers in the lurch, it's pretty close to theft.

Maybe companies like this should be required to buy insurance to cover the debts they owe to customers in the event of shutdown.


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## Country Lad (25 February 2020)

SirRumpole said:


> .
> Maybe companies like this should be required to buy insurance to cover the debts they owe to customers in the event of shutdown.




If it is not already the legal requirement, then the payments should go in to a trust account until such time as the carrier is paid - same as real estate transactions.


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## sptrawler (25 February 2020)

I think this is only the tip of the iceberg, the corona virus and flight/cruise cancellations, is going to catch some dodgy travel agents with their pants down.
Well that is my guess, any ponzi schemes will quickly show up. IMO


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## sptrawler (25 February 2020)

Another business going under, showing its dependence on timely stock deliveries from overseas.

https://www.couriermail.com.au/busi...m/news-story/5778a526603595dd20ee2dc6f575b70d
From the article:
Ishka, an Australian home furnishing store, has gone into voluntary administration, with the company launching a “total clearance” sale with its website revealing “everything must go”.

The family-owned chain was founded 50 years ago and there are 60 stores across the country, including 15 in country areas, with more than 450 staff members on the payroll.

Ishka sells handmade crafts, homewares, gifts, clothing, furniture and jewellery from throughout the world, and was started in a small workshop in Glen Iris, Melbourne.
He said Australia’s unusually challenging summer period, coupled with a devastating delay of more than $3 million worth of Christmas stock, had crippled the business.
“But unfortunately in late November, quarantine seized 32 components of Christmas stock. Normally that would be released quite quickly … but a week later it hadn’t arrived, and then a week after that we were starting to get concerned, and then another week later in mid-December I thought, ‘my God, we’re not going to get our Christmas stock’.”
The crucial items didn’t arrive until late January, which meant the store missed the vital holiday trade period.

The disaster occurred because the person responsible for fumigating the stock overseas before it departed for Australia lost their certificate, meaning the goods had to be treated again upon arrival on home soil, which created a backlog.


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## moXJO (26 February 2020)

sptrawler said:


> Another business going under, showing its dependence on timely stock deliveries from overseas.
> 
> https://www.couriermail.com.au/busi...m/news-story/5778a526603595dd20ee2dc6f575b70d
> From the article:
> ...



Business is taking a lot more risk on lately through no fault of their own. I'm finding that everyone is flaking on their responsibilities. Makes me then have to run around for hours trying to sort out a problem, because someone was to lazy to do their job right. The last few months have been insane for it.


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## Dona Ferentes (26 February 2020)

High street is changing. In Box Hill and Eastwood, at least. A claim there are 12,000 _daigou _shops in Australia, clustered around immigrant suburbs and educational institutions. How they're traveling now with co-vi around is moot, but the quest for authentic product remains strong.







> Ugg boots, honey, health food bars, vitamins, supplements and skin cream plus baby formula of course.



https://amp-news-com-au.cdn.ampproject.org/v/s/amp.news.com.au/finance/business/retail/massive-boom-in-personal-shopping-gift-shops-sees-thousands-emerge-across-australia/news-story/65320aacf81cfa60e28582cbc473ee71?amp_js_v=a3&amp_gsa=1&usqp=mq331AQFKAGwASA=#referrer=https://www.google.com&amp_tf=From %1$s&ampshare=https://www.news.com.au/finance/business/retail/massive-boom-in-personal-shopping-gift-shops-sees-thousands-emerge-across-australia/news-story/65320aacf81cfa60e28582cbc473ee71


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## Smurf1976 (27 February 2020)

> Just over 206,000 people attended the event over the four days to Sunday, down from 254,000 last year and 273,500 in 2018.




https://www.abc.net.au/news/2020-02-24/adelaide-500-has-lowest-attendance-in-17-years/11993770

Regardless of what factors specific to this event might be leading to reduced numbers, reality is it's yet another example of consumer discretionary spending being cut. Down 7% last year and down another 19% this year.


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## SirRumpole (27 February 2020)

Smurf1976 said:


> https://www.abc.net.au/news/2020-02-24/adelaide-500-has-lowest-attendance-in-17-years/11993770
> 
> Regardless of what factors specific to this event might be leading to reduced numbers, reality is it's yet another example of consumer discretionary spending being cut. Down 7% last year and down another 19% this year.




Will be interesting to see how the AFL and NRL crowds stack up this year compared to previous years.

Admission to these events isn't cheap, especially for families so an economic downturn should certainly be reflected in such discretionary spending.


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## basilio (27 February 2020)

The real question about attendance at any public events this year will be the  impact of the Covid 19 virus. The rate at which large public gatherings are being cancelled  in Sth Korea, Japan, Italy etc because of the risk of spreading the disease is escalating rapidly.

Lets not be surprised at this possibility here.


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## basilio (27 February 2020)

What are the essentials of life ? 

A roof over your head,  basic food, and groceries power,  phones. internet (!) 

Obviously we all would like more and the current system is built on creating and servicing more and more wants.  But when everything is stripped back we can get by on a very minimal spend - if for example we are quarantined at home.

The problem is the impact this will have on the economic system we currently have.


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## macca (27 February 2020)

Perhaps the age of consumerism is waning.

For the past two decades I have been quite intrigued by the mania to spend, spend, spend and to do, do, do, the concept of having a nice quiet beer or cool drink in the shade of a tree is just so old fashioned.

I walk through any shopping area and I see mainly cafes and dress shops, how they have all survived this long has remained a mystery to me.

The concept of saving for a rainy day has been embraced by very few people over the past twenty years but I recently read that a survey of the new next gen indicates that they are over the must have everything now phase and are actually spending less.

Perhaps we will have another hippy phase where we all wear old clothes and look like scruffs. We can wear jeans that were actually torn while in use rather than jeans that wore torn Before we bought them.

If ever there was an example of how dumb fashion can be, people paying big bucks for pre-torn jeans....... crazy

With the extreme dependence on China for supply of just about everything I do think that very shortly the supply chains must reopen, personal travel may stay restricted but goods will start to flow by international agreement.

I was in Newcastle yesterday, NO ships waiting for coal, two coal loaders empty, they won't allow it to continue, don't be caught short in the market when the UN? announces that international supply will recommence


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## basilio (27 February 2020)

Just a clarification of my earlier post. When I said what are the essentials of life and  pointed out the minimum*,  it also assumed a base set of resources.  *Having a home with furniture, whitegoods, wardrobe, ect.  The economic challenge is to persuade us to continually turn these over or buy new experiences ,  

Not sure if that is going to be as easily  possible in the next few months for many people.


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## SirRumpole (27 February 2020)

macca said:


> Perhaps the age of consumerism is waning.
> 
> For the past two decades I have been quite intrigued by the mania to spend, spend, spend and to do, do, do, the concept of having a nice quiet beer or cool drink in the shade of a tree is just so old fashioned.
> 
> ...




Due to the flood of cheap stuff from overseas, the volume of things that people buy has probably increased, but they are probably spending roughly the same percentage of their income on consumer goods. Having said that, non discretionary spending has also increased, power, fuel government charges etc so the opportunity for discretionary spending is now reducing.

Maybe people will now start looking for value, clothes that last longer etc , but unfortunately the quality goods suppliers were mostly driven broke years ago.


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## CBerg (27 February 2020)

macca said:


> Perhaps the age of consumerism is waning.
> 
> For the past two decades I have been quite intrigued by the mania to spend, spend, spend and to do, do, do, the concept of having a nice quiet beer or cool drink in the shade of a tree is just so old fashioned.
> 
> ...



Young people definitely aren't over spending, they just spend it differently.
Almost every person I speak to asks where I'm going travel next. It's just assumed you want to travel probably in the same way it was assumed you moved out & had your own place with a car 30-40 years ago.

People don't know what to say when I mention I'm over travelling, I want to do an all around Australia caravan trip at some point in 10 years but between now & then I'm head down bum up building an asset base.

One thing to note in my age bracket(late 20's/early 30's) is a LOT of people are actually settling down, buying houses & having kids. I'd say becoming an adult has been delayed 10+ years for most people and the impact that would have on steady state assumptions is probably reflected in the state of retail today.


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## macca (27 February 2020)

CBerg said:


> Young people definitely aren't over spending, they just spend it differently.
> Almost every person I speak to asks where I'm going travel next. It's just assumed you want to travel probably in the same way it was assumed you moved out & had your own place with a car 30-40 years ago.
> 
> People don't know what to say when I mention I'm over travelling, I want to do an all around Australia caravan trip at some point in 10 years but between now & then I'm head down bum up building an asset base.
> ...




Interesting comments, following on from here, the rising cost of houses means that any paying the huge mortgages are Not going to be spending spare cash, they simply won't have any.

Too many new people far too quickly over the past 5 years has placed extreme and quite unfair pressure on your generation IMO


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## sptrawler (10 March 2020)

Another one bites the dust.

https://www.abc.net.au/news/2020-03-10/kikki.k-is-placed-into-voluntary-administration/12044012
From the article:
_Almost 500 jobs are in limbo after Melbourne-based stationery chain kikki.K was placed into voluntary administration.

The chain has 65 stores across Australia, Singapore, Hong Kong, London and New Zealand, as well as an online store.

Barry Wight from the company's receiver, Cor Cordis, told the ABC that the retail chain has been struggling for some time but that poor summer trade had likely exacerbated its problems_.

I wouldn't have thought stationary would be a strong retail sector these days, with computers etc.


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## SirRumpole (11 March 2020)

sptrawler said:


> I wouldn't have thought stationary would be a strong retail sector these days, with computers etc.




I don't know the financial status of Officeworks, but that would be one to watch in the stationary area, although they more diversified into computers, office furniture etc.


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## CBerg (11 March 2020)

Kikki K was a bit like Kmart - stocking all the trendy cheap junk from Asia. More of a gift shop than anything else I reckon. Typically better quality & higher prices than Kmart but junk all the same.


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## sptrawler (11 March 2020)

SirRumpole said:


> I don't know the financial status of Officeworks, but that would be one to watch in the stationary area, although they more diversified into computers, office furniture etc.



They are owned by Wesfarmers, so they will outlast the opposition a bit like a Bunnings for stationary, survival of the biggest.


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## Dona Ferentes (11 March 2020)

CBerg said:


> Kikki K was a bit like Kmart - stocking all the trendy cheap junk from Asia. More of a gift shop than anything else I reckon. Typically better quality & higher prices than Kmart but junk all the same.



Kikki K was a Smiggle wanna-be


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## Dona Ferentes (11 March 2020)

SirRumpole said:


> I don't know the financial status of Officeworks, but that would be one to watch in the stationary area, although they more diversified into computers, office furniture etc.



Probably finding it hard to move all that stationary


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## SirRumpole (11 March 2020)

Dona Ferentes said:


> Probably finding it hard to move all that stationary




Yes, start of the school year would be their best time probably.

(I see what you did there, very good )

I can't edit my deliberate error now.


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## mullokintyre (7 March 2022)

sptrawler said:


> Japan Post wont be happy, I wonder if the I.T system came with TOLL, or Japan Post put their own in when they bought Toll out?



There have been quite a few unusual and unexpected consequences of the Ukraine/Russian conflict , and not all of them are bad.
Conti, is one of the biggest Ransomware  businesses around.
It seems that the "employees" of Conti come from a non country background, despite attempts to portray hackers as always emanating from Russia, China or North Korea. One of them at least appears to have come from the Ukraine, and was not happy about sharing with fellow Russian Employees. so has spilled the beans in a big way.
From Todays Australian


> The leaking of more than a hundred thousand internal messages at the world‘s biggest ransomware gang has offered explosive insights into how it attacks its victims which include Australian companies.
> When Conti announced “full support of the Russian government” in the war against Ukraine on February 25, it took only two days for Conti chat sessions to find their way onto the internet, with the likely source being a Ukrainian supporter within the cybercriminal group.
> 
> Bleeping Computer reports leaks of more than 160,000 internal messages, along with source code for the Conti ransomware encryptor, decryptor and builder.
> ...



It remains to be seen if this means the demise of Conti, I suspect not, but it would appear that it has caused some disruption.
Micik


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## finicky (20 June 2022)

What the ..?
Almost all the discretionary retailers on my list are *up *today.
Ones I take more of an interest in are all up except BLX:
AX1, TPW ^9%! ARB ^6% ADH, NCK
Even RFG is up today on some announcement I haven't read and MYR and MOZ up also.
NCK is a disappointment as I am goulishly hoping for more deterioration so I can pick up an entry.


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