# Too much love for the miners?



## Trembling Hand (10 March 2008)

Just thinking out loud. After the meltdown in the Financials anyone who has been long the materials would be feeling very good. They have certainly rewarded the faithful no doubt. Gold etc have been on a super run and and the USD just sucks. It feels like everyone who is a fan of the commodities is just waiting for gold to bust $1000 and head straight to $2000000000000.

With all the bruised and busted money coming out of every other sector I am starting to look for a nasty shake out in the Commodities plays. The market has a nice habit of punishing the late. Top picking is obviously just as silly as knife catching. But after such a big run are the odds still in favour of the material longs?


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## nioka (10 March 2008)

*Re: To much love for the miners?*



Trembling Hand said:


> Top picking is obviously just as silly as knife catching. But after such a big run are the odds still in favour of the material longs?



Yes.


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## MRC & Co (10 March 2008)

*Re: To much love for the miners?*



nioka said:


> Yes.




I would agree.

A pullback was on the cards after its recent parabolic run!

Just wait for its consolitation and another crack at the highs!  

Perhaps it was the PPT who had a crack at trying to change this trend during US Friday trading.........?  Any thoughts there?

I agree 100% though, the market does have a habit of punishing the late comers, but with these inflationary pressures not looking to slowdown anytime soon, are we at the end of this run?

You say, quote "With all the bruised and busted money coming out of every other sector I am starting to look for a nasty shake out in the Commodities plays" - doesnt this statement contradict itself?  

Bruised and busted money coming out of every other sector (wouldnt that mean commodities would rise, rather than experience a shake out?) and out of commodities as of the last couple trading days.  But where will it go?  Into cash and erode?  Into property which is only just beginning its downturn?  Or perhaps back into the financial sector which is still a complete mess?  Under the matress?   Looking at it that simply, I think I know which sector I will remain long.  Though, one of my stops got triggered today and if this little downturn continues overnight, my others will probably end up triggered also (still without any loss to my capital), will then wait to see where this ends and buy back in. 

Just my opinion.  Thx.


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## explod (10 March 2008)

*Re: To much love for the miners?*

There a many very good technical analysts on the forums, people like Wavepicker I take my hat off to.

I am just a simple trend follower, the motto, "the trend is your friend untill the bend"

Gold; absolutely no bend yet, and the $US down no bend yet either.   So rather than wonder, guess or become concerned because it has run so long and hard, just stay on till an identifiable correction occurs.

Look at the wonderfull trend that Itherthekret has has with Incitek Pivot, (need a lot of manure in China,... to feed the rabbits) have been jealous of this for weeks.


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## MRC & Co (10 March 2008)

*Re: To much love for the miners?*



explod said:


> There a many very good technical analysts on the forums, people like Wavepicker I take my hat off to.
> 
> I am just a simple trend follower, the motto, "the trend is your friend untill the bend"




I completely agree explod.

My motto, as in my sig, is keep it simple!

Watch out for where the trend is moving (basic FA study) and stay on the trend until the bend (when to exit on the bend is the crystal ball gazing part, but volume/price analysis can help identify individual circumstances).  However, this is still the most problematic area of my analysis.


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## jman2007 (11 March 2008)

Oh hang on a minute....

Ooops, I thought this would be a thread about a bunch of outrageous oversexed miners frequenting the flesh bars of asia during their week off, and we were supposed to be venting our rage at them.

My mistake I guess 

jman


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## explod (11 March 2008)

*Re: To much love for the miners?*



MRC & Co said:


> I completely agree explod.
> 
> My motto, as in my sig, is keep it simple!
> 
> Watch out for where the trend is moving (basic FA study) and stay on the trend until the bend (when to exit on the bend is the crystal ball gazing part, but volume/price analysis can help identify individual circumstances).  However, this is still the most problematic area of my analysis.




In conjunction with average daily trading range a trailing stop of 5% is my rule of thumb on getting out.   Go in on firm 10% rise.


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## Trembling Hand (20 March 2008)

The Love index is handing out some tough Love today


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## MRC & Co (20 March 2008)

ha ha, good call!  

I thought a pullback was on the cards, but not a capitulation!  

In hindsight, trailing stops and getting out on first sign of momentum change (2 reasonably large falls on 7th and 10th March respectively), would have done me well.

Instead, one stop got triggered on the 10th, the rest on the 11th.  

Switched to gold, when I probably should have treated it as the other commodities, all move in reasonable unison afterall, right?

Ah well, you live and you learn, these things happen, life goes on!

Lot more disciplined next time thats for sure!  Much tighter stops are on their way to my little trading station!  Also cant forget to be much more cautious of momentum swings in this current market!  The reasonable falls of 1-2% are long gone, its now more like 5-10%!  Have to get out on first (second) sign of a change.


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## Whiskers (20 March 2008)

MRC & Co said:


> ha ha, good call!
> 
> I thought a pullback was on the cards, but not a capitulation!




Nah, not capitulation... just a bit of re-organisation of capital.

Still love the miners. I think their best is still to come... when the USD recovers a bit.


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## MRC & Co (21 March 2008)

Whiskers said:


> Nah, not capitulation... just a bit of re-organisation of capital.
> 
> Still love the miners. I think their best is still to come... when the USD recovers a bit.




"Re-organisation", ha ha, ok, if you will.

Im with you on the miners, Im still very bullish.  Just waiting for this momentum to change, but might take a little while still yet.  I will be watching very very closely.

Tonight I will be glued.  I thought after the fall yesterday, we would see green tonight on the US indicies, following on from the bounce two days ago.  Going to be a real fight!


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