# HVN - Harvey Norman Holdings



## ctp6360 (1 February 2006)

Hi Everyone,

This is my first big trade (as in I have put a decent amount of cash on the line - its not more than 2% of my total trading capital though) and the first where I have used "technical" analysis as my basis for making the purchase. My main goal in this trade is to test out the theories I have been reading about in "Trend Trading" by Daryl Guppy to see if I can apply them effectively and to see if they work for me.

The second goal of this trade is to see that, regardless of any flaws it contains, if I can follow my plan to the letter without letting emotion dictate my decisions.

Here is my plan for this trade:

Max Chase: $3.25 
(I ended up getting in at this price having put my original bid at $3.23)

Reason for buying:
- In an established uptrend
- Guppy Multiple Moving Average says uptrend is strong and is likely to continue

Stop Loss:
- If price falls below resistance level at $3.18 at end of day, I will cut losses and sell (I found the price $3.18 by using a countback line but didn't include this on the graph)
- I will use a trailing stop loss based on the count back line to lock in any profits if they arise.

Here are my very amateurish chart analysis for HVN, I have only used two indicators in my analysis, a trend line which I am 100% sure is plotted incorrectly, and the GMMA which I absolutely love, I hope it works for me in the market as well as it does in theory  (famous last words).

My motivation for posting is:
1) I am interested to hear what people think about my primitive analysis
2) I want to get my trades out in the open because this will provide additional emotional stimulus to follow my plan to the letter.


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## Happy (2 February 2006)

*Re: HVN - Harvey Norman*

EOD 31 Jan 06 my CBL stop was close 1 cent below low $3.12 on 24 Jan 06
Bars taking part in CBL placing were 27, 25 and 24 Jan 06

There is a bit of grey area, and some place new CBL stop loss as soon as there is new equal high, which happened on 31 Jan 06.
After equal high, some would take 31, 30 and 25 Jan 06 bars, and this is probably correct as stop can only go higher, making it $3.16

Yesterday’s close changed stop loss again to $3.21 , 1 cent below bar on 30 Jan 06, and bars taking part in setting CBL were 1 Feb, 31 Jan and 30 Jan 06

Why I write all this, is that none of my CBL stops is identical to yours, I can be wrong.
You are talking support, and this is valid idea to set stop around support area, but CBL stop is rather locked to volatility than support.

Not sure what others think and which idea is more correct?


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## ctp6360 (2 February 2006)

*Re: HVN - Harvey Norman*

Happy yours is right and mine is wrong. Sorry I actually lost my CBL calculation and picked $3.18 because it was a number I was comfortable with. Your calculations are right and mine are wrong, I put those lines on my graph because they are the numbers I am playing with in my head, not because of any calculations...very sorry I misled you like that!

I am glad you hold HVN as well and that I'm at least close to the right track...I revised my stop loss up to $3.22 last night so your figure of $3.21 is closer and since I have no doubt yours is more accurate I'm going to go with that instead 

What did you think of my GMMA analysis, Happy?


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## Happy (2 February 2006)

*Re: HVN - Harvey Norman*

GMMA analysis has supporters and opponents.
Some, me included are quite comfortable with GMMA, as it looks convincing, some are totally against it and they probably have a point too.

Moving average is kind of feel good interpertation of events.
Many, me included, and from what I can see you too, think that MA is too slow as trading signal.

We have other means of control to take loss or profit, like support or CBL for example.


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## ctp6360 (6 February 2006)

*Re: HVN - Harvey Norman*

Harvey Norman got raped today and has fallen to $3.16, disappointing for me but will be a good chance for me to be diciplined and act on my stop loss.

I still think this will continue its uptrend but I am going to follow through on my original plan.


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## Happy (7 February 2006)

*Re: HVN - Harvey Norman*

I think good decision.

Market plays mind games and if we second-guess what it might be, we stray from trading plan and pay hefty price when stock doesn’t bounce back.

Re-entry technique, as new trade, with new entry and stop is much better alternative.


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## mime (7 February 2006)

*Re: HVN - Harvey Norman*

Good luck with your trade. Looking at your graph you may have bought in too late but I'm not really skilled in charting so wouldn't know. 

I like to pick stocks through external factors. If there is a ecomonic slowdown the retail sector is the first to feel it. Of course if there isn't there are good times ahead.

If you do get burned of the trade don't give up.


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## arco (13 February 2006)

*Re: HVN - Harvey Norman*

Hi All

Here's a weekly HVN chart I posted on another forum on 16th Jan.

The message I gave at the time was "HVN could still have some more to go..........(if the red box breaks north) "






regards - arco


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## jkool (19 January 2007)

*Re: HVN - Harvey Norman*

I cant believe its almost a year since the last posts here about HVN. I wonder how you guys went after all and if you managed to hold on to this stock as it seems to have gone a little since than (same as everything else 

I also tried to analyse their last annual report on my site http://sog.shopinthemall.com/2007/01/19/australia-harvey-norman-holdings-ltd/
and so far I like it best amongst the aussie retailers.

Its as aussie comp as it gets with Gerry Harvey himself still holding around 30% of the stock and other top managers another 48%. Thats probabaly why they manage the business as if it was their own Seems to me that they are reluctant to take much debt on board and are still making decent returns on their existing equity year after year. 
On the downside, HVN's shareprices are always pretty high (measured by P/e) as I suppose the stock is held in high regard with most of the share investors so jumping it now could be too costly.

I am wondering what others have to say.
Cheers

Jkool


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## Buffettology (1 April 2007)

*Re: HVN - Harvey Norman*

^^^^^  

Couldnt have said it better myself jkool.  

Its a stock I am waiting to buy up big on, but again, it is overpriced so I think I will wait for this bull to end.


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## Garpal Gumnut (6 May 2007)

*Re: HVN - Harvey Norman*



Buffettology said:


> ^^^^^
> 
> Couldnt have said it better myself jkool.
> 
> Its a stock I am waiting to buy up big on, but again, it is overpriced so I think I will wait for this bull to end.




Last week I thought about buying HVN but decided against it after looking at its chart.

Its in a decent uptrend but seems to be running out of steam.

Having said that Gerry or some fund manager seems to come in with a big buy order every May which over the last 2 years has pushed the price up , only to fall later in the year.

I've put an RSI on the chart and note a divergence between price and this indicator each March to May, followed as I said above by a retracement to a previous congestion level about Sept/Oct.

Anybody else looking at HVN. 

Garpal


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## Uncle Festivus (7 May 2007)

*Re: HVN - Harvey Norman*

I'm thinking it's looking a bit overextended but then again a lot of stocks do. If you go by the chart we may have some sort of top forming for a head & shoulders pattern. Too scared to short in this market though 

PE approaching 20 - how does this stack up against other retailers?


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## finnsk (5 September 2007)

*Re: HVN - Harvey Norman*

Hit alltime new highs this morning came out with strong results last friday look strong on the chart will hopefully go for a little run, is not sure if this is what is called for bluesky territory.
Holding


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## watsonc (22 November 2007)

*Re: HVN - Harvey Norman*

Solid performer, still trending up in a downward market. Despite interest rate rises, the strength of our $A will make technology and lifestyle products which Harvey Norman sells much cheaper to the public. I guess holders of HVN are expecting a strong Xmas spend-a-thon.

Any thoughts?


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## osmosis (7 May 2008)

*Re: HVN - Harvey Norman*

Now trending down in a temporarilyrising market (for now anyway). Is this a buy at this price for the long term?


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## subaru69 (29 July 2008)

*Re: HVN - Harvey Norman*

Sir Harvey was just on Lateline Business -
'I'm a mug, why didn't I wait to buy the shares at $3, I bought heaps at $4.5 and $3.9'
'I'm just shell-shocked'

And a little bit of blatant self promotion -
'We sell TV's and washing machines for less than we did 10years ago, why would you fix it? Just come in and buy another'
'I picked up our catalogue, I couldn't believe how cheap our stuff is'

Not that I own any consumer discretionary stocks, but I'm glad I'm not the only one who bought on the way down for them to only get cheaper.  If the CEO/founder can't pick his own SP, then who can?


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## Real1ty (30 July 2008)

*Re: HVN - Harvey Norman*



subaru69 said:


> Sir Harvey was just on Lateline Business -
> 'I'm a mug, why didn't I wait to buy the shares at $3, I bought heaps at $4.5 and $3.9'
> 'I'm just shell-shocked'
> 
> ...




That was an hilarious interview and he is so down to earth is old Harvey.

It's a pity the interviewer was so serious and didn't get into the spirit and have a laugh about it.

Just judging from that interview it would appear Harvey has little knowledge of stocks as he has been buying financial and CS and it seemed like his rational was that they used to be X now they are Y so they are cheap.

He was flabbergasted and used catastrophic several times but the funniest part was when she asked him if he was going to buy any more he and he simply replied "I've lost my courage" 

I don't own any CS but HN is one i will be looking at if there appears there might be a good time to get in, although like everything it's very unclear atm.

Funny interview and worth a watch for anyone that wants a bit of a chuckle.

Shame it wasnt Ally Moore doing the interview, it would have been even funnier.


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## tommymac (25 October 2008)

*Re: HVN - Harvey Norman*

It's been a while since anyone's talked about this share.

What are people's thought's given the recent sales announcements and share price?

tommymac


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## Santoro (25 October 2008)

*Re: HVN - Harvey Norman*

The aussie dollar decline resulting in increasing electronic goods (once stock on hand is turned over) prices this can't be too positive for HVN. If unemployment starts to increase the consumption is sure to slow.

(e.g Dell released the inspiron mini at $599 and stock sold out a couple of weeks ago, they have new stock but at $699, so if you looking for electronic goods get them now while current stocks last)



> Clive Peeters Ltd says it expects to post a loss in the first quarter of fiscal 2009 as weakened consumer confidence translates into subdued trading for the electrical goods retailer.
> 
> The company said conditions would remain challenging for the remainder of 2008/09 but the government's recent economic stimulus package and interest rate cuts had improved prospects for the Christmas trading period.



link to article

and stock prices haven't increased yet....


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## AS414 (4 December 2008)

*Re: HVN - Harvey Norman*

There has to be some concerns about their international ventures too:


http://internationalbs.wordpress.com/2008/12/04/oh-harvey-oh-harvey/


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## rryall (6 January 2009)

*Re: HVN - Harvey Norman*



tommymac said:


> It's been a while since anyone's talked about this share.
> 
> What are people's thought's given the recent sales announcements and share price?
> 
> tommymac




I bought in at just over $2 a couple of months ago, they are spending lots on advertising to increase market share. Closest competitor is JB however they target a younger generation and are only in electronics. I am looking long term 5+ years..

DYOR as I am only a newbie.


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## justiceotp (6 January 2009)

*Re: HVN - Harvey Norman*

They actually announced they would decrease advertising spend,it was around 60 Million dollars for the year and they are loosing money in Ireland due to the severe recession there.
Links below news articles of both
http://www.smarthouse.com.au/TVs_And_Large_Display/Industry/W3L4F2T2
http://www.theaustralian.news.com.au/story/0,25197,24433004-7582,00.html


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## Glen48 (6 January 2009)

*Re: HVN - Harvey Norman*

Steve Keen on TV tonight told all that firms like HN are not a good investment because of the credit bubble and the lines they sell such as electronics.


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## Real1ty (7 January 2009)

*Re: HVN - Harvey Norman*

I had a Fridge pack up on me just prior to Christmas and had to replace it.

When i went into the store and started asking about prices i was bombarded with discounts without even asking.

"This one is $1290.00 but we will do it for $899.00 etc etc.

I got mine for a $400.00 discount to its marked price.

On the way out i went to check on the price of a Plasma i have had my eye on and know what they sell for and was offered it at a $330.00 discount to its normal price.

I got talking to the guy and he said things had been very quiet and they were instructed to move items, not much more, just move them.

This may not be indicative of every store but if it is margins will be really tested.


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## prawn_86 (7 January 2009)

*Re: HVN - Harvey Norman*

I would never own HVN shares purely due to their lack of customer service.

I have walked in there on numerous occasions and started browsing and never once have someone come up and ask if i need help. And its not as though i was looking at small things, a couple of times was when i was looking for a plasma TV. So after about 5 minutes of standing around trying to get someones attention i just left and went elsewhere.

Again it may be an indication of just the couple of stores i visited, but its enough to turn me off their shares, even if there wasn't a downturn


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## nomore4s (7 January 2009)

*Re: HVN - Harvey Norman*



prawn_86 said:


> I would never own HVN shares purely due to their lack of customer service.
> 
> I have walked in there on numerous occasions and started browsing and never once have someone come up and ask if i need help. And its not as though i was looking at small things, a couple of times was when i was looking for a plasma TV. So after about 5 minutes of standing around trying to get someones attention i just left and went elsewhere.
> 
> Again it may be an indication of just the couple of stores i visited, but its enough to turn me off their shares, even if there wasn't a downturn




I've had the same problems with HVN up here, the service is cr@p and won't shop there if we can help it.
When I moved house a few months ago, went to get a new TV and washing machine but couldn't get anyone to serve us at HVN so went to The Good Guys instead and had no issues there.


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## ned_beaty (14 March 2009)

*Re: HVN - Harvey Norman*

If only the service was the only problem with HVN. I think they have big debt problems as the borrowed heavily to expand into Ireland just before the Irish economy tanked!! No-one is spending over there, all the banks have been nationalized and property values have crashed in the order of 60%. Also their expantion into office suplys here was a disaster with the OFIS stores all being shut down now. These stores will be a huge loss for the Australian operations to bail out, combined with slowing economy here I think there are substantial risks involved with this company. Just my 2c worth.


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## skc (2 October 2009)

*Re: HVN - Harvey Norman*

HVN up a pretty 5.7% on a sea of red.

Anyone seen any news?

No other retailer is moving so it's nothing macro economics related from what I can see.


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## matty77 (26 February 2010)

*Re: HVN - Harvey Norman*

haha I laughed so hard, quote from Gerry Harvey..




> There's a lot of discounting, so if you're a very good retailer you got to fix up your mix of business so that you discount the **** out of something to try and pick it out on something else.
> 
> "And if you're discounting the **** out of something and you can't pick it up on something else, guess what happens - you go broke.''




http://www.news.com.au/business/bre...ays-gerry-harvey/story-e6frfkur-1225834833789


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## nooberator (18 October 2010)

*Re: HVN - Harvey Norman*

anyone notice the big slide for harvery norman?

you think it will be a good buy if it hits $3.30


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## McCoy Pauley (18 October 2010)

*Re: HVN - Harvey Norman*



nooberator said:


> anyone notice the big slide for harvery norman?
> 
> you think it will be a good buy if it hits $3.30




Gerry talked down his own company by comparing the conditions for retailers as being worse than during the GFC late last week.

Also, I think some consumers are beginning to realise that you can buy things a lot cheaper online, especially with the Aussie dollar at or near parity with the US dollar.


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## iced earth (22 October 2010)

*Re: HVN - Harvey Norman*

HVN : 21.10.10

The share could not pass the resistance line (white) and recently  broke down the support line (Purple) and now testing Fibo 50% . if this can not hold it we should expect the next support level at around 2.96$ (Fibo 61.8 %) Momentum also is near important 0 level and passing down this level could cause more downtrend (Fig 1)


from another point of view share price is testing another  support line (yellow). this line can be Neck Line for tilted Head & Shoulders pattern. If the line passed down the target could b around 1.8$ which is the lowest  price of HVN in FEB 2009.  (Fig 2)


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## nooberator (23 October 2010)

*Re: HVN - Harvey Norman*

thanks for the t/a, im not sure what i was thinking wanting to buy this.
.


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## Julia (23 October 2010)

*Re: HVN - Harvey Norman*



nooberator said:


> thanks for the t/a, im not sure what i was thinking wanting to buy this.
> .




Perhaps what you were thinking is that this is one of Australia's most well run retail companies which, in more certain times, has done very well.

Why have you suddenly decided - as per your above post - that it has suddenly become a dog?


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## iced earth (24 October 2010)

*Re: HVN - Harvey Norman*

may be this article could explain the difficulties of retailers such as HVN:

http://www.reuters.com/article/idAFSGE67207R20100804?rpc=44


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## brty (24 October 2010)

*Re: HVN - Harvey Norman*

Over the last few weeks this stock has been meandering back to support in one continuous move except for one 3 day rally. Being large iconic retailer, it is difficult to see it going straight down from here. 

The reasons given as to why the share price is falling, were just as relevant a couple of months ago when the price rose from ~$3.20 to ~$3.90, while making a series of higher lows and higher highs.

Anyway I bought a few thousand shares at $3.40 and will be buying more if the price gets to $3.28. I'm expecting a bounce to around $3.70as a minimum, but will see what the market wants to deliver. I can always be wrong and everyone else correct.

brty


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## nooberator (25 October 2010)

*Re: HVN - Harvey Norman*



Julia said:


> Perhaps what you were thinking is that this is one of Australia's most well run retail companies which, in more certain times, has done very well.
> 
> Why have you suddenly decided - as per your above post - that it has suddenly become a dog?





Im still in the process of developing my trading strategy and HVN no longer meets my entry criteria. I dont think its a dog, just not the right entry time for me.


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## iced earth (5 November 2010)

*Re: HVN - Harvey Norman*

_*HVN - 5.11.10*_

As it was predicted on 21.10.10 (https://www.aussiestockforums.com/forums/showpost.php?p=587249&postcount=56)  price fallen below fibo 50% and now we should wait for the next resistance level at fibo 61.8% (around $2.95) (Fig 1)


also the neckline (Tilted Head and Shoulder pattern) is break down , the target of this pattern could be around 1.8 $ ,which is the lowest price of HVN in FEB 2009. (Fig 2)


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## Happy (12 November 2010)

If left and right shoulders give inclined line, it is fair to assume that inclined line will determint target price.

(It might not be as bad as Dog picture.  But made bigger mistakes than possibly this one, ... will be watching just to see how wrong I will be this time)


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## iced earth (8 January 2011)

HVN - 8.01.11

As it was predicted on 21.10.10 (https://www.aussiestockforums.com/for...9&postcount=56) price fallen below fibo 50% and unfortunately resistance level at fibo 61.8% (around $2.95) could not hold the falling . next resistance level will be fibo 78.6% around $ 2.44(which is not as Important as Fibo 50% nor 61.8 %)




in daily diagram we are still receiving the "stay out signal" after "Exit signal" around $ 3.7 (price under EMA 20 and momentum under zero line) 




also the neckline (Tilted Head and Shoulder pattern) is break down , the target of this pattern could be around 1.8 $ ,which is the lowest price of HVN in FEB 2009 .


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## iced earth (5 August 2011)

*Re: HVN - Harvey Norman*



iced earth said:


> HVN : 21.10.10
> 
> The share could not pass the resistance line (white) and recently  broke down the support line (Purple) and now testing Fibo 50% . if this can not hold it we should expect the next support level at around 2.96$ (Fibo 61.8 %) Momentum also is near important 0 level and passing down this level could cause more downtrend (Fig 1)
> 
> ...




It was 10 month ago(price that day was $3.39) when in my TA I predicted the target of around $1.8 for Harvey Norman. Today it was trading $1.89


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## iced earth (11 August 2011)

HVN(Harvy Norman) 11 August 2011:
========================================

After head &Shoulder pattern (which was predicted 21.10.10 here when share was trading 3.39) Share price reached $1.8.






Now we can see positive divergence between price and CCI 




More importantly we can see a very strong support line around $1.8 and it could be a considerable buy at this level ( putting the stop loss below this support line)


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## McLovin (12 August 2011)

At $1.80 HVN is pretty great value IMO, you are buying a property portfolio at about book value and getting an OK retailing business thrown in for almost nothing.


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## notting (30 August 2011)

Still good value now that the result is out with a 9% lift.
Market respond quickly with a lift and since has gotten nervous.
My main concern is WOW selling white goods in their new Hardware thingy.  Still with only one WOW store in Melb for the moment you'd think Harvey can still make a bit. Buying a bit around 2


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## McLovin (31 August 2011)

notting said:


> Still good value now that the result is out with a 9% lift.
> Market respond quickly with a lift and since has gotten nervous.
> My main concern is WOW selling white goods in their new Hardware thingy.  Still with only one WOW store in Melb for the moment you'd think Harvey can still make a bit. Buying a bit around 2




If you take the cap rate used to value the properties as being an accurate then yes they are still good value. However, I was speaking to a guy who works in commercial property and he said Harvey's were using an inflated cap rate to value the property. I did a bit of research and a few brokers have noted the same thing, the cap rate was below market rates a few years ago and is now above. On the positive side it was good to see HVN vacancy rate fall after 4 years of rising.

My biggest concern with HVN at the moment (aside from the fact their business model is probably in long run decline) is that so far, as you've noted, whitegoods prices have held up pretty well. If the Koreans decide that they want to have a crack at seeing how much of the whitegoods market they can take then it could see the same price deflation as browngoods have.

At $1.80 it is probably fair value (I'd prefer a bigger MoS) for it's real estate assets, although the problem with the breakup scenario is it won't happen while Gerry is still alive.


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## investorpaul (31 August 2011)

McLovin said:


> If you take the cap rate used to value the properties as being an accurate then yes they are still good value. However, I was speaking to a guy who works in commercial property and he said Harvey's were using an inflated cap rate to value the property. I did a bit of research and a few brokers have noted the same thing, the cap rate was below market rates a few years ago and is now above. On the positive side it was good to see HVN vacancy rate fall after 4 years of rising.
> 
> My biggest concern with HVN at the moment (aside from the fact their business model is probably in long run decline) is that so far, as you've noted, whitegoods prices have held up pretty well. If the Koreans decide that they want to have a crack at seeing how much of the whitegoods market they can take then it could see the same price deflation as browngoods have.
> 
> At $1.80 it is probably fair value (I'd prefer a bigger MoS) for it's real estate assets, although the problem with the breakup scenario is it won't happen while Gerry is still alive.




Hi McLovin,

Any idea of what cap rate HVN was using to value their property at?


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## McLovin (31 August 2011)

investorpaul said:


> Hi McLovin,
> 
> Any idea of what cap rate HVN was using to value their property at?




8.77%.


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## ROE (2 September 2011)

McLovin said:


> 8.77%.




I don't think 8.77% is a inflated figure, if anything I reckon HVN is spot in
the middle ... not too low and not too high ... lot of properties trust use between 7%-8%
which is more aggressive than HVN

Price = Rent/Cap Rate

The lower the cap rate, the higher the price ....so HVN is more conservative than people like Bunnings properties trust etc..

and beside cap rate doesn't matter if you are not force to sell and dont have a lot of debt ...
you just collect your rent every year whatever the going rate is ..

HVN is low in debt and very conservative so their properties portfolio is safe as.

Gerry whinge a bit but he's not stupid ...he know how to make a bucks and been through many recession and wont let debt get in the way of bring his fortune down..

Gerry run it like my rental properties  I would never sell it I just collect rent every year ...I don't care what
the cap rate is or what price the properties goes for unless I want to sell which I'm not..

HVN is a good exposure to properties and retail in one mix ...


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## investorpaul (2 September 2011)

I agree ROE, if anything I think 8.77% is too conservative.

I used to work for a property developer and they were constantly using a cap rate of 7 to 7.75%.

Given alot of HVN's prop is large space/bulky goods/stand alone store type configuration I think a cap rate of between 8.25 and 8.75% would be fair.


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## skc (2 September 2011)

investorpaul said:


> I agree ROE, if anything I think 8.77% is too conservative.
> 
> I used to work for a property developer and they were constantly using a cap rate of 7 to 7.75%.
> 
> Given alot of HVN's prop is large space/bulky goods/stand alone store type configuration I think a cap rate of between 8.25 and 8.75% would be fair.




Isn't the value of the property somewhat derived from the success or otherwise of the retail businesses which it hold? If a shop is to shut due to bad sales then the value of the property will also take a hit. So the two sides of the business may not be as diversified as one would hope. 

Although it is probably relatively more attractive than buying a retail trust at a higher cap rate, given that you get a retail business on the cheap... as long as the retail side doesn't start making losses.


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## ROE (3 September 2011)

skc said:


> Isn't the value of the property somewhat derived from the success or otherwise of the retail businesses which it hold? If a shop is to shut due to bad sales then the value of the property will also take a hit. So the two sides of the business may not be as diversified as one would hope.
> 
> Although it is probably relatively more attractive than buying a retail trust at a higher cap rate, given that you get a retail business on the cheap... as long as the retail side doesn't start making losses.




Unless you running your business at a loss for a long time you shut up ..but slow sales
and still making a profit no one would shut up shops .. To date and through out many recession HVN still turn a profit for its Franchisee.

beside at price around 1.80-2.00 a lot of that would have already been factor in
unless employment go to 10%, HVN property portfolio should enjoy reasonable income
plus a bit on the business side ...people bitch, people moan but as long as they still
have a job, they will spend some of that money at HVN, JB, WOW and WES

HVN is price much more attractive to the other lot so your down side is low compared to upside... and the HVN property equity ratio is pretty good

2B property, 600m of debt ... 70/30 ratio ... there is room for it to pay down more debt
and it becomes even more attractive ...

The future is always uncertain  make sure you can handle the future


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## McLovin (3 September 2011)

investorpaul said:
			
		

> I agree ROE, if anything I think 8.77% is too conservative.
> 
> I used to work for a property developer and they were constantly using a cap rate of 7 to 7.75%.
> 
> Given alot of HVN's prop is large space/bulky goods/stand alone store type configuration I think a cap rate of between 8.25 and 8.75% would be fair.




Jones Lang LaSalle gives the following cap rates for bulky good property.



> Trough cycle nation average bulky goods cap rate of 10.15%
> Current nation average bulky goods cap rate of 9.35%
> Peak cycle nation average bulky goods cap rate of 7.63%




Also over the last 5 years HVN's cap rate has gone from a discount to a premium to the prevailing market rate.


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## ROE (5 September 2011)

McLovin said:


> Also over the last 5 years HVN's cap rate has gone from a discount to a premium to the prevailing market rate.




What do you make of this in the report? I don't see them deviate much 
unless you count a few basis points as a massive deviation from the norm.. 


Australian Property Portfolio Statistics 
Weighted average capitalisation rates 
FY2007 FY2008 FY2009 FY2010 FY2011
8.69%  8.21%  8.36%  8.7%    8.77%


----------



## McLovin (6 September 2011)

ROE said:


> What do you make of this in the report? I don't see them deviate much
> unless you count a few basis points as a massive deviation from the norm..
> 
> 
> ...




You're only looking at one side of the equation. Either HVN has adjusted their cap rate or the market cap rate has adjusted and HVN's has remained unchanged.


----------



## ROE (6 September 2011)

McLovin said:


> You're only looking at one side of the equation. Either HVN has adjusted their cap rate or the market cap rate has adjusted and HVN's has remained unchanged.




So what you saying HVN manipulate the figures and no one else has? 

Let take the data you post up 

Trough cycle nation average bulky goods cap rate of 10.15%
Current nation average bulky goods cap rate of 9.35%
Peak cycle nation average bulky goods cap rate of 7.63% 

wouldn't an 8 ish figure sound about right, smack bang in the middle?

what HVN figure show you is they are consistent and not play around with figures..

during good and bad times they use similar figures with little variation ...

anyway these figure doesn't mean anything unless you intend to refinance debt
or sell the properties .... HVN intends to do neither...almost all of their debt are long term 

what more important is their underlying operations..

Net Cash flow at $358m
Return on invested capital: 15%
It generates a 9.1% rental income on its properties.

if it generates like 4% or 5% yes I would say its properties is over value but 9.1% is 
a fair figure for commercial rental return.

so people making these comments are without facts but 
pure speculation and comments.

sometimes fictions tells better stories than facts

enough said from me ... I tend to go with the facts..


----------



## McLovin (6 September 2011)

ROE said:


> So what you saying HVN manipulate the figures and no one else has?




Where did I say that? I haven't said anyone is manipulating anything. HVN claims they use a lower cap rate because their properties are in better locations. Perhaps they are. On the other hand, the point skc and I was making is that their property portfolio is dependent to a certain degree (how much I don't know) on the strength of their underlying retail business.

I've pointed out the difference, you can make of it what you want. I certainly won't lose sleep over it.


----------



## iced earth (11 September 2011)

Technical Analysis of HVN(Harvy Norman):11 sept 2011:

The price is moving in a channel and now has touched the upper line, if it could scape up of the upper line the target would be $2.50 if not the lower line would act as the support line.
Also EMA20 , momentum and MACD has sent buy signal




In this picture we have 3 resistance lines (red line is short term, blue line is middle term and green is longer term)




Tio and parabolic SAR shows uptrend in HVN


----------



## iced earth (20 September 2011)

HVN-20 SEPT 2011:

HVN could not pass up the upper (resistance) line of the channel, now it is near to the lower (support) line of the channel which could halt downtrend of HVN.


----------



## iced earth (11 October 2011)

HVN - 10.10.2011
    =========================
    HVN is moving in a upward channel and now is touching the upper line of the channel which might cause a little halt in rising




    but important thing is that HVN has been passed up the resistance line (green) and the possible correction would be just a pull back to this resistance line


----------



## ROE (23 November 2011)

The come back king 
http://www.theage.com.au/business/harvey-norman-takes-the-online-plunge-20111123-1nuj3.html

I went and check some stuff out ..they are cheaper than JB Hi-Fi 

Buy online pickup in store ..pretty damn cool


----------



## poverty (23 November 2011)

ROE said:


> The come back king
> http://www.theage.com.au/business/harvey-norman-takes-the-online-plunge-20111123-1nuj3.html
> 
> I went and check some stuff out ..they are cheaper than JB Hi-Fi
> ...




GO HARVEY!  GO HARVEY!  I'd rather eat glass than buy from a place with such condescending, pointless and annoying advertising.  I hope he goes broke (like the shareholders already have).


----------



## McLovin (25 November 2011)

A decent start, only about 10 years late! No doubt they are hoping their name helps them win business. There are guys out there whose online offering includes next day free delivery and a phone number. For some reason HVN offers neither. Still I guess you need to crawl before you can walk. HVN really need a phone number on their website, not a find your local store and call them but a dedicated online call centre.


----------



## iced earth (6 December 2011)

TA of HVN - 05-12-2011
====================
HVN had a good support at around $2.00 and today reached the valid (Red) resistance line and could not passed up $2.20.






 If HVN could manage to pass up this resistance line, it could reach the next important(blue) resistance line (around $2.80- depends when reach this line)


----------



## pixel (6 December 2011)

If we go back to the matching Low of February 2009, and assume $1.80 proves to be holding support, there should indeed be massive upside - but we need patience, Iago 
If I take the recent 2 months as a flag pattern, a breakout would make $2.60, $2.80, and $3.05 - 3.10 quite likely, even short-term, say in a month or so. 




The question is: Will Gerry try to fight the online shops (I don't like his chances) or can he join them and beat them at their own game? (stop whingeing, Gerry; just do it! At 72, you're not too old to learn a new trick )


----------



## ROE (6 December 2011)

poverty said:


> GO HARVEY!  GO HARVEY!  I'd rather eat glass than buy from a place with such condescending, pointless and annoying advertising.  I hope he goes broke (like the shareholders already have).




Dont let your personal emotion cloud your judgement when a good business go on sale for Cheap.

I heard on the grapevines
Most people hates banks, they rack in decent return for their shareholders

Most people hates Telstra and it is one of the most profitable Telco on the planet

Most people doesn't like Gerry yet they spend billions at his shop each year and to his advantage he hold a massive properties portfolio.

Most people think Dominos is **** pizza yet they grow double digit each year  

You can hope Gerry goes broke but I think many more people goes broke before Gerry.

I went and bought something from Uncle Gerry over the weekend for $1400 most other retailer cant do it so if I was you I would not buy from Gerry and pay higher price at other retailer..Smart money move


----------



## notting (22 December 2011)

I'm getting a little tired of analysts saying HVN is trading at it's property value.

If the retail landscape has indeed changed as much as is being implied by the 'internet retail revolution' then retail property is worth probably half as much as it used to be.  

The kind of property HVN has is kind of nasty looking warehouse spots with no lifestyle appeal as far as I can see.  Certainly not boutique shopping strips which are more likely to survive and maintain coffee drinkers and eateries etc.

Hence HVN is *not* trading at property value!

If there has been a cultural shift to internet shopping and it's not all about confidence and interest rates, then HVN's property is overvalued and so is HVN.

Gullible less educated people may have also wised up to the *slimy hyped up credit rip off* adds promising no cost for years, whilst they actually end up paying twice as much for an ugly sofa than they could have if they paid for it upfront!

Karma Jerry - intentionally deceiving people - it's coming back on you!!


----------



## skc (22 December 2011)

notting said:


> Hence HVN is *not* trading at property value!




I agree. HVN's retail property value are directly related to HVN's retail business value, which is falling rapidly.

Don't forget that HVN trading at property value means either the retail business is valued at zero (which it isn't as it still makes a profit) or the market doesn't believe in the property value. Granted many retail REITs trade at 10-15% discount to NTA anyway.

And last time Gerry bought his own stock at $3.90 in Mar 08, it didn't bottom until ~ 1 year later at $1.90... did Gerry jump too early again this time?


----------



## McLovin (29 February 2012)

Maybe there's a chance that HVN will spin it's property out into a trust. It would be nice and would unlock a fair bit of value.


----------



## notting (29 February 2012)

skc said:


> And last time Gerry bought his own stock at $3.90 in Mar 08, it didn't bottom until ~ 1 year later at $1.90... did Gerry jump too early again this time?




He baught some more recently a month or two ago, it wasn't a massive amount.
Spinning off the property into a REIT would be a good idea.  I wouldn't be buying the REIT however!!!


----------



## oldblue (29 February 2012)

notting said:


> He baught some more recently a month or two ago, it wasn't a massive amount.
> Spinning off the property into a REIT would be a good idea.  I wouldn't be buying the REIT however!!!




Me neither!

I can't see that the market would be enthusiastic about a REIT whose only asset was HVN stores.


----------



## McLovin (2 March 2012)

Welcome to the world before colour televisions...

The guy is so out of date it's not funny.



> Consumer goods retailer Harvey Norman is drastically scaling back plans to conduct 5 per cent of its trade online, only months after launching a brand new website.
> 
> Chief executive Gerry Harvey said the company's recent online trading figures had been unimpressive.
> 
> ''We're happy with our presence, we're happy with our site, we're not happy with our sales,'' Mr Harvey said.





http://www.smh.com.au/business/web-hardly-working-for-harvey-norman-20120302-1u7ka.html


----------



## Chasero (2 March 2012)

McLovin said:


> Welcome to the world before colour televisions...
> 
> The guy is so out of date it's not funny.
> 
> ...




It's because Harvey Norman prices are a rip off.

Why shop at an overpriced online store?


----------



## Nutmeg (21 April 2012)

I have a thesis about HVN that I'm still formulating.  Amazon is set to open here in the near future.  Retailers are rightly nervous because there's no way they will be able to compete on price with Amazon.  And yet the kinds of products Amazon sells are more integral to JBH's business than to HVN's.  HVN is largely a furniture and home furnishings business.  It's my view that "e-tail" is unlikely to make much of an inroad as to how these products are bought.  I'd be really interested to know what percentage of HVN's net profit is attributable to sales of consumer electronics because I reckon it's going to lose that business sooner or later.  Does anyone know?


----------



## Tyler Durden (21 April 2012)

Nutmeg said:


> I have a thesis about HVN that I'm still formulating.  Amazon is set to open here in the near future.  Retailers are rightly nervous because there's no way they will be able to compete on price with Amazon.  And yet the kinds of products Amazon sells are more integral to JBH's business than to HVN's.  HVN is largely a furniture and home furnishings business.  It's my view that "e-tail" is unlikely to make much of an inroad as to how these products are bought.  I'd be really interested to know what percentage of HVN's net profit is attributable to sales of consumer electronics because I reckon it's going to lose that business sooner or later.  Does anyone know?




I don't, but it's enough to make Gerry Harvey nervous.


----------



## McCoy Pauley (24 April 2012)

I'm currently undertaking a postgraduate course in entrepreneurship and innovation.  Just started a new subject last Friday on marketing which is being taught by a marketer with an economics background (interesting combination, IMO).  He made the passing comment that he thought that HVN has a 50/50 chance of surviving the next five years, because he considers that the current HVN business model is broken.


----------



## skc (31 August 2012)

Good old Gerry at his rational best again.



> Amid the worst conditions the retail veteran has seen in more than 25 years, Mr Harvey said today the furniture, bedding and electronics business was booking only about $50,000 to $60,000 a day in online sales despite all the hype around internet shopping.
> 
> But he felt the pressure to invest in Harvey Norman's omni-channel platform anyway and spruik the company's achievements in developing its online capabilities lest he be labelled a "dinosaur".
> 
> Read more: http://www.smh.com.au/business/gerry-harvey-sick-of-internet-spin-20120831-255ax.html#ixzz256i2qITu




May be your online sales would be higher if you are more competitive?


----------



## Ves (31 August 2012)

Without bothering to look at it in any detail,  would it be fair to assume that this has always had a lowish payout ratio because there is a fair bit of maintenance capex that they need the cash for?   I don't see any other use for the "retained earnings" since they aren't exactly expanding.


----------



## ROE (31 August 2012)

Ves said:


> Without bothering to look at it in any detail,  would it be fair to assume that this has always had a lowish payout ratio because there is a fair bit of maintenance capex that they need the cash for?   I don't see any other use for the "retained earnings" since they aren't exactly expanding.




Properties development, they will complete later this year and open
Before Xmas, large Hvn centre house other tenants as well.

Similar to properties woolies use to house their supermarket but
They have other tenants in there as well.

Hvn do stuff slow and steady but busy all the time
Acquiring land then develop then open Hvn stores
And house other tenants


----------



## Ves (31 August 2012)

ROE said:


> Properties development, they will complete later this year and open
> Before Xmas, large Hvn centre house other tenants as well.
> 
> Similar to properties woolies use to house their supermarket but
> ...



Thanks - that makes sense.  Land and buildings aren't cheap when you first buy them.


----------



## McLovin (1 September 2012)

skc said:


> Good old Gerry at his rational best again.
> 
> 
> 
> May be your online sales would be higher if you are more competitive?




It's amazing that a smart guy like Harvey just doesn't get the internet. He's launched a cr@ppy website and is only generating $50k/day in sales but that is because the internet doesn't work, not because his website is rubbish and his prices are too high. 

It's amazing that they still have no contact phone number on their website. ffs, even some one man band operating out of a bedroom still manages to list a phone number, yet a multibillion dollar company can't. It just shows the sort of attitude they are taking to the internet.


----------



## Tannin (1 September 2012)

Dancing doesn't get you girls. 

I know this for a fact. 

You see, I had never, ever danced in my life before 'coz it's a complete boring waste of time.

But one night, as I was sitting alone in the nightclub wondering why no girls liked me  anymore, someone told me that all the hot girls these days like a guy who is a great dancer. 

So I finished my drink and went to the dance floor and looked around to see how it was done. 

Simple enough for a smart guy like me - you just sort jump up and down a bit and move your arms around. Easy!

So that's what I did.  

And you know what? Not even one girl came up to me and kissed me or anything. Not even one! 

So don't believe any of this bull**** and mirrors talk. I've tried it and I know: dancing doesn't get you girls. 


----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

^ Does this sound like someone you know? Does it remind you of (just to chose an example completely at random) Gerry Harvey talking about the Internet?


----------



## notting (27 November 2012)

Today Jerry Harvey proclaimed that HN will be the last man standing whilst most other retailers will go out of business.  
He also said, "You've seen more retailers go out of business in the last two years than you have seen in the history of Australia and there are more retailers currently under pressure,"

Wouldn't it follow that HN sales should have picked up whilst all these other retailers have gone out of business?!  Surely it would be the case, if this were some kind of inevitable conclusion that HN would be the winner to take it all.  
Guess he's *still* not considering the online and internationals that are spanking his prices.  Surely not.

If there is going to be a last man standing in the bricks and mortar model that sells the stuff he does, then there is no reason why it should not be HN as far as I can see.  Just might not be worth getting out of your seat and standing in the store unless it's to check the thing out before you buy it cheaper online.
Although, I have bought a few things recently online thinking they were pretty sweet deals, only to find them cheaper in stores!!

I remember a girl friend of mine telling me about her work collegues looking forward to getting their deliveries from ordering at work on the net.  It's like getting a present in a box and opening it up.
Even rediculous prices for speedy delivery are a bit of a thing for some.
People sleep out for the first I-phones, when they could walk in store a week later and get one with a lot less time committed.
Committed, yes, should be they.

If it's not all about price then there is hope I guess.


----------



## prawn_86 (8 February 2013)

Wow could HVN's latest TV ad get any worse? "They're like family", "We want to look after you for years" and someone holding a baby.

When realisitically they have the poorest service of virtually any retail store in Australia, and have staff who dont care if you buy something or not. I have spent 20 minutes in a HVN store looking for a 1k sound system and no-one approached me once


----------



## McLovin (8 February 2013)

And they still have no phone number on their website. Seriously, isn't that the most rudimentary of things to include when you're running a business? Especially if you're trying to pass yourself off as being customer focussed.


----------



## notting (8 February 2013)

prawn_86 said:


> I have spent 20 minutes in a HVN store looking for a 1k sound system and no-one approached me once




Whilst the management team are trying to do every thing they can to be offering something the reality is
 everyone is going in there getting the product experience then going away and buying on line.
The sales staff have wised up and learnt to keep away from customers!
I actually went in there once and was looking at a laptop. 
It was surprising to find HN's computers where connected to the net.  
I thought that was good service!  
I then searched for the laptop I was thinking of buying on the very laptop I was thinking of buying and showed the salesman how much cheaper it was on the net.  
For some reason he kind of went a bit ga ga and kind of walked away!




McLovin said:


> And they still have no phone number on their website. Seriously, isn't that the most rudimentary of things to include when you're running a business? Especially if you're trying to pass yourself off as being customer focussed.




The whole point of internet models is to have virtually zero overheads, the last thing you want is all these idiots ringing you up having to pay people to take the calls and asking all these dumb questions. You can't keep the prices so low and provide that kind of thing.  
I guess they should have numbers to the bricks and mortar stores which other internet companies don't have.
Ring the store?
I know even the online only ones have numbers and the HN, DJs and other sites are really hopeless.

Jerry thinks all the intenet stores are going to go broke because they can't be making any money.
I think his idea of what making money is has been quite distorted from his margins and subsequent success in the golden years.


----------



## prawn_86 (8 February 2013)

notting said:


> Whilst the management team are trying to do every thing they can to be offering something the reality is
> everyone is going in there getting the product experience then going away and buying on line.
> The sales staff have wised up and learnt to keep away from customers!




Funny that i actually went to a different store on the same day and spent 1k then. I know very little about surround sound systems and just wanted to get it over and done with as we had just moved cities.

In fact i dont think i personally have ever been in a bricks and mortar store just with the intention to check out somehting to buy online. If the sales staff are well versed and know their product i happily buy from a store (especially when i have limited product knowledge and i feel i can trust the staff), the pity is that is virtually non-existent these days


----------



## notting (8 February 2013)

prawn_86 said:


> Funny that i actually went to a different store on the same day and spent 1k then.
> In fact i dont think i personally have ever been in a bricks and mortar store just with the intention to check out somehting to buy online.



I usually just drift in because I am in the area and want to check a few things out that I have been thinking about.
I don't really intend to do what ends up happening, it just kind of happens! 
In the past I probably would have gone home better informed and then when 'want to buy' became 'need to buy' I'd return to the store.  But these days, you just tap it into eBay or Amazone and wait for Santa in his white van!


----------



## MrBurns (8 February 2013)

Small world .......went to HN on Sunday to look at air con with a friend, she got all the right info and best price walked out and bought it cheaper on line.

They must be hurting.


----------



## PinguPingu (28 February 2013)

Musnt be hurting that bad by today's action...


----------



## skc (28 February 2013)

PinguPingu said:


> Musnt be hurting that bad by today's action...




Like-for-like sales down 6.3% for the half year... dividend cut to 4.5c. 

EPS ~10.5c (excluding property revaluation) so full year is probably <14c.

Apart from a rise in Jan like-for-like sales, there's little to cheer about in the result.

Can't explain the price action aside from the usual "short covering"...


----------



## notting (28 February 2013)

Jerry was actually talking up the property value saying the earnings were higher than interest rates, a gap bigger than he had ever seen before. (value of property vs having that value in the bank)
Officially the property is downgraded whilst Jerry is saying it can only go up to fill the gap!
Perhaps people are seeing  a little white rabbit in the *hedge*!


----------



## PinguPingu (28 February 2013)

skc said:


> Like-for-like sales down 6.3% for the half year... dividend cut to 4.5c.
> 
> EPS ~10.5c (excluding property revaluation) so full year is probably <14c.
> 
> Apart from a rise in Jan like-for-like sales, there's little to cheer about in the result.




So why rise in the first place? Unless the purpose was to close shorts for the purpose of reopening them again at a higher price, I guess. Wonder if we'll be 3/3 in retailer price jumps with DJS report.


----------



## Country Lad (28 February 2013)

PinguPingu said:


> So why rise in the first place?




Results better than expected and outlook more bullish than expected.

Cheers
Country Lad


----------



## PinguPingu (5 November 2013)

It just wouldn't be (almost) Christmas without Jerry having a bit of a whine 

http://www.smh.com.au/business/retail/gerry-harvey-launches-red-tape-crusade-20131104-2wwsj.html

I dont know what he's complaining about, share price has had a great year - I just don't think the numbers reflect it. Seems irrational, but then I was wrong about this one before.


----------



## Sergio (7 November 2013)

it seems testing the resistance at 3.32/3.33
2 days ago it penetrated well above it with high close.
yesterday we have a massive pullback to shake the weak holder out of the game.
today it jump to 3.33 region again.

tomorrow will be interesting to see. will it break through the resistance or vica versa.

any thought?


----------



## notting (25 November 2014)

Slimy little character announced a capital raising whilst the market is distracted with the medibank 
float.


----------



## McLovin (25 November 2014)

A capital raising to pay a dividend.

I assume they have some excess franking credits they want to wash through but still...


----------



## skc (25 November 2014)

McLovin said:


> A capital raising to pay a dividend.
> 
> I assume they have some excess franking credits they want to wash through but still...




Seems to be a new trend... MLD was the other mob who did the same recently.

HVN managed to stuff up the announcements, dropping the cleansing notice first for some recent, and got sold off on the back of that.

But why is the raising being done at $2.50 a share I have no idea.


----------



## skyQuake (25 November 2014)

skc said:


> Seems to be a new trend... MLD was the other mob who did the same recently.
> 
> HVN managed to stuff up the announcements, dropping the cleansing notice first for some recent, and got sold off on the back of that.
> 
> But why is the raising being done at $2.50 a share I have no idea.




They should have made an ad...

*The Harvey Norman Discount Share Sale is now on! *

Save a massive 33% on brand new shares*
and pay nothing till 15th Dec 2014!

Plus, join our customer loyalty program by the 9th Dec to receive a 5.2%** Cash rebate on all your Harvey Norman shares!***

-------------------------------------------------------------
*Limit 1 new share per 22 existing shares. To be eligible for the offer you must be a holder by this Friday.
**5.2% includes 30% in franking credits
***Offer excludes shares acquired through the Discount Share Sale


----------



## skc (25 November 2014)

skyQuake said:


> They should have made an ad...
> 
> *The Harvey Norman Discount Share Sale is now on! *
> 
> ...




 

**** Approved domestic customers only


----------



## notting (14 January 2015)

> Fund manager Sid Choraria, who came first in a competition aimed at identifying the world's most-overpriced stocks, believes Harvey Norman shares are "priced for perfection" and will fall 35 per cent to 40 per cent over the next 18 months to two years.
> Mr Choraria accused Harvey Norman of "robbing Peter to pay Paul" by paying underperforming franchisees more than $400 million in tactical support over the last four years while simultaneously jacking up rents to support its property values.
> The fund manager also questioned the sustainability of Harvey Norman's franchise structure, pointing out that franchisees paid little upfront capital and received a salary and a car – making them more akin to employees than franchisees.
> Mr Choraria, who works for Singapore-based funds management firm APS Asset Management, also raised concerns about Harvey Norman's debt levels, its poor financial disclosure and losses in its international operations, particularly Ireland, which has lost money in eight of the past nine years.
> ...




Being T'd up nicely today.
Time to get out big Bertha and smack it into the lake.


----------



## jank (15 January 2015)

If I knew how, I would short this company.


----------



## VSntchr (15 January 2015)

jank said:


> If I knew how, I would short this company.




If you don't know how, then perhaps it's best you don't! 

What don't you like about HVN Jank?



The spike yesterday, driven by the ML upgrade did make a trade to the short side look pretty tantalising....


----------



## notting (2 March 2015)

Jerry was interviewed today. They asked him about the possibility of a tie up with MYR.  He said,  "Coles was the jewel in the crown. WES got that. Why would we want to do that?  It doesn't make any sense at all."
After talking about all the improvements in the HVN what exactly makes MYR untenable which sells a lot of the same stuff, pretty much apart from beauty stuff and cloths which is one of it's best performers!
So his disdain for such an idea is just disdain for his own business.


----------



## pixel (1 November 2016)

Continuing the discussion from tech/a's thread, where Kryzz provided this:
https://www.aussiestockforums.com/forums/showthread.php?t=31431&p=923301&viewfull=1#post923301
it should be pointed out that HVN went ex 17cFF yesterday. That temporarily increased the 20c range of those previous days. Today, trading against the tumbling XJO, it's pleasing to see HVN trading almost as if no ex-div had occurred.

Let's see if the chart can stay above $5, which is not only some psychological hurdle, but also the brim of a one-year saucer/ cup'n'handle pattern.
As a predominantly short-term trader, I am not currently on HVN; but it is on my watchlist, and a breakout could certainly create some short-term opportunities as well.


----------



## tech/a (1 November 2016)

> it should be pointed out that HVN went ex 17cFF yesterday




Ahh
That explains the mini Black swan!

Thanks
P.


----------



## pixel (1 November 2016)

tech/a said:


> Ahh
> That explains the mini Black swan!
> 
> Thanks
> P.




Although I live next to them here in Perth, and having drunk my share of the "Black Duck", I had to look up the chart pattern with the same name. 
https://www.google.com.au/search?q=...EmpQKHSPQAFQQsAQIHA&biw=1258&bih=1045&dpr=0.9

Some of the pictures shown look more like origami, but now I get your drift. 
I wasn't really worried about yesterday's candle because I do follow dividend data as a matter of cause. The first half hour or so was dominated by strippers and amateurs that followed the common pattern on ex-div day. It took some time for them to notice the buying interest, giving professionals and instos an opportunity to add stock at low prices. Big Money buying suggests to me that a bullish trend is more likely than a bearish one, once the US-election jitters are behind us.


----------



## pixel (1 November 2016)

Above table shows the top buying brokers throughout October *before* ex-div.
I can run this report at the end of this week again for the period ex-div (data available with 3 days' delay)


----------



## pixel (1 November 2016)

... and these brokers sold the most:


----------



## notting (14 November 2016)

I beg your pardon?



> Jerry Harvey - "It's all been started by a short seller -  he's the enemy," an irate Harvey told shareholders. "He's out there and he's trying to disrupt our company - people don't do this unless they have a really good reason.
> 
> "It's common practice for short sellers to go out and try to demolish the company they've sold the shares in because it reduces the price of the shares and they buy them back and make some money, so they have a very strong motive.
> 
> ...




Pretty rich coming from a prick who sells massively marked up products to people who can't afford them. 
Whilst coning them with promises of no interest and all that crap for 2 years and then the suckers end up paying double or more the already massively inflated prices over time or there abouts.  
Nothing like a billionaire taking advantage of the ignorant and the poor, who are not able to buy something outright in full.

Couldn't happen to a nicer person. Bring on Kogan. Go f(#$ yourself Jerry. :321:


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## lusk (14 November 2016)

notting said:


> I beg your pardon?
> 
> 
> 
> ...




The guys arrogance is amazing, couldn't believe l heard him on the radio in a Hardly Normal ad thanking the government for the small business grant. His head is up his own behind so far he can see the back of his teeth.


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## notting (25 January 2017)

> Harvey Norman said the preliminary pre-tax net property revaluation increment for investment properties in Australia would be *more than $70 million for the six months* ending December, compared with $20.6 million in the same period a year ago, and would be recognised as income.




I see.  Can't wait for the commercial property slump.  See if he counts it in there.


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## notting (24 March 2017)

Jerry's at it again.
He has appeared on numerous TV spots and newspapers talking of how big bad Amazon is devouring the retail world and is coming to Australia.  Mean while HVN shares have been pounded by shorters like yours truly and done quite well.
Today the fin review which is wrong thing to be reading if you ever want to make money is reporting that ASIC is investigating Harvey Norman Accounting practices.  HVN denied this is the case.
And Oh look, Jerry just happens to have snapped up $4,356,700.00 worth or HVN Just before it's about to pay out it's fully franked dividend and he has been ramping it down with words all over the media. Time to take profits on the short and go long and get some of that too.  Here at 4.29 paying over 7%.
Amazon hasn't even started building it's warehouses in Australia and is already active in our markets whilst HVN has been doing surprisingly well with it's mean model.
Got to hand it to Jerry's promotional abilities in both directions!


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## notting (5 July 2017)

Jerry snapped up another 
$8,869,000.00 at the end of March, which was not great timing but still relatively cheap.
He did this at the back end of what was like a road tour of trashing his own business in the media against the monster of Amazon. 
Now perhaps that negative sentiment that really set the cat amidst the pigeons in the retail sector has come to an end.
Looks like JBH and HVN may get a bit more of a kick along.
Maybe Jerry wants to take HVN private and cash in on the property values, that would be tricky but not out of the question.  
The interesting thing is that if he was happy to buy it at 4.40 whilst trashing it in the face of Amazon then we should be happy at 4.00 ish, you'd think!?


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## notting (8 July 2017)

There is a little truth in the disruptor, perhaps.
Though I suspect it's more a general shift to buying online in geneal from all kinds of places, not just Amazon.


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## skc (7 September 2017)

http://m.switzer.com.au/video/gerry-harvey-20170906/

Gerry's interview.... it's gold.


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## galumay (7 September 2017)

skc said:


> Gerry's interview.... it's gold.




Indeed, while giving us almost no answer to any questions! I loved his saying that shorters have an incentive to lie because if they can get the stock to drop they make money. Obviously anyone long in a business has the same incentive to lie - to try to get the price to go up!


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## satanoperca (7 September 2017)

Gerry is an advocate for a big Australia, I wonder why, to increase his revenue.

I wonder if the short seller is allowed/permitted to promote a smaller Australia.

And with 350K of people entering Australia, Gerry natural gets a 1.4% uplift in sales, just by the extra people.

As for him not worried about Amazon, bull****. He is tiny compared to them and they have the technology. 
They don't need to be ship bedding or white goods to effect his sales. 
He probably thought Kogan would effect his business either.

The problem with his business model and online sales is how does he have a strong online business which essential takes sales away from his secondary business - franchisors, first business being property.


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## Garpal Gumnut (7 September 2017)

Agree that Gerry is a player.

I'm tempted though to put a few $ in to HVN., just on the charts.

I'll look for a break above $4 before the ex-div. 

gg


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## notting (19 September 2017)

Garpal Gumnut said:


> Agree that Gerry is a player.
> 
> I'm tempted though to put a few $ in to HVN., just on the charts.
> 
> ...




It had a positive day on Friday, whilst the rest of the market was quite negative.  HVN has had a negative run so that got my interest as a possible turn toward it's div.

Just remember this however - 



> The Australian Securities and Investments Commission *(ASIC) has confirmed* to the ABC *it is probing the accounts of listed retailer Harvey Norman* — though *the company's chairman and founder is still steadfastly refusing to accept that it is under investigation over the way it accounts* for its exposure to failed franchises and troubled franchise loans.
> 
> "There is no investigation," billionaire founder Gerry Harvey said today.
> 
> Shares in the listed retailer suffered a huge slump after reports in Fairfax media about a maze of "zombie trusts" and failed franchises in the Harvey Norman retailing group.


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## greggles (28 February 2018)

Harvey Norman Holdings net profit in the half year to 31 December 2017 has slumped 19.3% to $207.7 million. HVN share price is currently down 13.76% to $3.95.

Gerry Harvey is a dinosaur in the retail game. The way he has consistently bashed competitors like Kogan and Amazon as well as disparaging online retailing generally just goes to show that he really is stuck in the past. Harvey Norman is the same breed as Myer and David Jones, out-of-touch and increasingly unable to adapt to the way retailing has evolved in recent years. I haven't set foot in a Harvey Norman store in long time.

Maybe its time for Gerry to step aside and let someone else take the reins?


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## Country Lad (28 February 2018)

Probably not a purely valid comparison because of HVN's furniture, but does paint a picture for greggles' comments.


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## galumay (28 February 2018)

Surprised he hasnt launched a scathing attack on the bastard shorters!


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## greggles (6 April 2018)

Harvey Norman struggling at three year lows. The whole bricks and mortar retailing sector seems to be feeling the pinch.


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## notting (31 August 2018)

HVN has 1,1B shares on issue which finished trading yesterday at 3.77 a piece.
Today they announced a div payout of .18 per share that’s $201m fully franked.

At the same time they announced a fricken 1 share for every 17 owned to raise approximately $163.85 million (before costs) (Entitlement Offer) with an offer price of $2.50 per New Share (Offer Price).

Can someone please explain why they would choose to dilute shareholders when HVN could just cut the div in half this time and cut again by even less next half to keep the cash rather than pay it and raise it.
What am I missing here?  Surely I'm going senile or something!
You can also apply for even more than your 1 for 17 if you want.  Are they expecting a massive response which they will feed and end up with 500m or something?


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## luutzu (31 August 2018)

notting said:


> HVN has 1,1B shares on issue which finished trading yesterday at 3.77 a piece.
> Today they announced a div payout of .18 per share that’s $201m fully franked.
> 
> At the same time they announced a fricken 1 share for every 17 owned to raise approximately $163.85 million (before costs) (Entitlement Offer) with an offer price of $2.50 per New Share (Offer Price).
> ...




If you cut dividends now, your share price will get smashed right away.

Keep paying dividends will show "yield" on the investment research notes; it makes the fund managers happy; makes the retail investors somewhat happy. 

Happy until next financial report when the diluted figures are typed up and reported. But that's a few months down the track and you, the CEO and directors, would have already banked that bonus.


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## notting (31 August 2018)

Last year they paid 12c even if they cut that to 10c they'd effectively pocket 88m this time rather than paying out 18c per share.
In the first half they cut the div from 17 to 12 and it still ran way up to pay day, then got wacked.
Share price lost 6% on the news this morning, along with a drop in earning mainly because they mark the property value as earnings and this time it went backwards not like the last 8 years of gains!
I'm not seeing any sense!
By the way bricks and mortar are making a come back  in the US according to some commentators!


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## luutzu (1 September 2018)

notting said:


> Last year they paid 12c even if they cut that to 10c they'd effectively pocket 88m this time rather than paying out 18c per share.
> In the first half they cut the div from 17 to 12 and it still ran way up to pay day, then got wacked.
> Share price lost 6% on the news this morning, along with a drop in earning mainly because they mark the property value as earnings and this time it went backwards not like the last 8 years of gains!
> I'm not seeing any sense!
> By the way bricks and mortar are making a come back  in the US according to some commentators!




Yea, read about some unknown entrepreneurs making quite a fortune re-working the shopping centre model. I guess there's always a place for shopping centres. We can't all buy everything online; and shopping is not just about buying crap we don't need... often it's just a place to walk around looking at crap we don't need.

That and I guess the big retailers finally figured out how to set up a website. It's been only 20 years but ey, better late than never 

Read a while back that Amazon is scouping up loads of brick and mortar retailing real estate. Getting some real bargains now that they've destroyed most of them. 

Thanks to Gerry and co, we all now get to pay GST for online orders. They're still cheaper than your overpriced stuff Gerry.


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## tinhat (1 September 2018)

notting said:


> Last year they paid 12c even if they cut that to 10c they'd effectively pocket 88m this time rather than paying out 18c per share.
> In the first half they cut the div from 17 to 12 and it still ran way up to pay day, then got wacked.
> Share price lost 6% on the news this morning, along with a drop in earning mainly because they mark the property value as earnings and this time it went backwards not like the last 8 years of gains!
> I'm not seeing any sense!
> By the way bricks and mortar are making a come back  in the US according to some commentators!




Sounds like a dividend trap. Been there, done that, bought the T-shirt once it hit the clearance store.

As to bricks and mortar. I saw Humphrey B. Bear in the fur at Miranda Fair in the early 70's and nothing, not even many years of sitting on Santa's lap at Grace Bros. will ever compare to that experience.


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## Redbeard (18 September 2019)

notting said:


> At the same time they announced a fricken 1 share for every 17 owned to raise approximately $163.85 million (before costs) (Entitlement Offer) with an offer price of $2.50 per New Share (Offer Price).




And this year the same thing again??   Whats going on ??


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## notting (20 September 2019)

Redbeard said:


> And this year the same thing again??   Whats going on ??




Paying dividends out of capital raising!  It's  insane!


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## bigdog (19 November 2019)

Harvey Norman CEO Katie Page should be a pin-up to everyone who demands more women in the boardroom and a successful CEO full stop with Harvey Norman’s earnings more than double other corporates on the benchmark list of Australia’s top 200 companies.

Instead, a rogue group is trying to oust her!

https://www.theage.com.au/business/...ts-mistaken-reply-to-asx-20191118-p53bm1.html

*Push to oust Katie Page from Harvey Norman board gets fresh support*
*By Elizabeth Knight*
November 19, 2019

There's no question the Harvey Norman annual meeting next week is shaping up as one of the dirtiest and most theatrical in recent corporate history.

A second big proxy firm CGI Glass Lewis is advising major shareholders in the retailer to vote against the reappointment of the company’s chief executive, Katie Page, to its board as chairman Gerry Harvey engages in a war of words against governance advisers.

Meanwhile, shareholder activist Stephen Mayne, who is offering himself for election to the Harvey Norman board, said he had received a death threat as the battle between the board and shareholders becomes explosive.

There is no suggestion that Harvey is behind this.

In addition, both Mayne and proxy adviser Ownership Matters, which supports Mayne’s candidature and was the first to recommend against Page’s re-election to the board, said they are being targeted by trolls and are fielding social media abuse.

It is unusual for a proxy firm to endorse an independent-cum-governance crusader on any board. Mayne, who regularly offers himself for election to many boards, does not normally receive the backing of proxy firms including Ownership Matters

It is also unusual for proxy firms to vote against a board member who is also the chief executive.

Given Harvey and his co-founder and wife Page together own 47.5 per cent of Harvey Norman neither of these recommendations will do anything other than place pressure on the board to lift its act on corporate governance. Neither will be successful as the election requires a vote of 50 per cent.

However, the remuneration report is a different matter. Its lower 25 per cent voting threshold means there has every chance it will be voted down for the second year in a row and that it could be followed by a move to spill the board.

But there is a split in the various proxy recommendations on both issues - the remuneration report and board elections.

ISS is recommending in favour of the remuneration report, but CGI Glass Lewis and Ownership Matters are voting against. Of more significance, the Australian Council of Superannuation Investors - which on average owns 10 per cent of every large Australian listed company - is voting against the remuneration report and in favour of a spill motion.

However, ACSI will vote in favour of Page’s election to the board and will abstain on Mayne’s nomination.

(In order to clear up one misconception, neither the proxy firms nor Mayne are suggesting Page should lose her role as chief executive.)

Ownership Matters is making a broader point that this company is in need of a big dose of independence at the board level and an even bigger dose of transparency.

So, regardless of which non-independent director’s turn it is to seek re-election, Ownership Matters would recommend against them as a matter of principle.

"Page is an executive director, Harvey Norman’s chief executive officer and the wife of founder and executive chair Gerry Harvey," it said in its report to shareholders.

"The Harvey Norman board contains two out of 10 members who are considered independent. With a lack of transparency in the company’s accounts and operations, investors should seek majority board independence and vote against all non-independent or executive director re-elections."

Likewise, no matter which individual put themselves up for election as a fresh independent blood (within reason, of course) they would have won support from Ownership Matters.

(And just by way of additional context - one of the other major proxy firms ISS is also recommending a vote in favour of appointing Mayne to the board. However, it will not vote against Page.)

CGI Glass Lewis cites related party transactions and board independence as its reasons for recommending against the re-election of Page.

ISS is also voting against two of Harvey Norman’s existing directors that are up for re-election, Kenneth Gunderson-Briggs and David Ackery but supports Page.

Ownership Matters has argued for a long time that Harvey Norman’s board is the equivalence of a governance nightmare. Other than Norman and Page, his son is also on the board. This year the company nominated its first independent director in 14 years - John Craven.

Ultimately it is a mixed bag of recommendations - but one which is both controversial and embarrassing for Gerry Harvey.

And it will shine an unflattering light on the company’s governance shortcomings.

175


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## over9k (7 May 2021)

Gerry's done very well out of the pandemic & the stock's sitting right on the support level now: 






So I felt like this thread deserved a bump.


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## rcw1 (31 August 2022)

Good morning

Harvey Norman has posted a 3.6 per cent fall in full-year net profit to $811.53m as total sales for the furniture, consumer electronics and home appliances giant fell $163.12m to $9.558bn.

The retailer said on Wednesday that reported earnings before interest, tax, depreciation and amortisation (EBITDA) of $1.437bn was down by 1.4 per cent against 2021 and up 52.1 per cent from in 2020.

In Australia, its franchisees were negatively affected by the prolonged government-mandated lockdowns and closures of ‘Delta’ in the first half resulting in a franchising operations segment pre-tax profit result of $292.85m, a decrease of 23.7 per cent from the first half of 2021. However there was a rebound in the second half as restrictions were eased.

It said company-operated overseas retail stores result comprises 25 per cent of total pre-tax profit excluding net property revaluations with 24 per cent of its total asset base located overseas.

From its extensive holdings of land and property, the company said its freehold property portfolio was valued at $3.74bn as at June 30, up 10.9 per cent and consisting of 95 freehold investment properties in Australia, 26 owner-occupied land and buildings in New Zealand, Singapore, Slovenia, Ireland and Australia and joint venture assets.

Harvey Norman declared the payment of a fully-franked final dividend of 17.5c per share, to be paid on November 14.

rcw1 not holding at present.

Kind regards
rcw1


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## Telamelo (28 September 2022)

Gerry Harvey slams Labor’s retrospective dividend hit​








						Gerry Harvey slams Labor’s retrospective dividend hit
					

Westpac and Harvey Norman shareholders could receive shock tax bills due to the government’s proposed retrospective crackdown on franked dividends funded by capital raisings.




					www.afr.com


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## divs4ever (29 September 2022)

ahhh ! the old retrospective  tax hit 

 today ( selected ) franked divs  ,  tomorrow the air you breathe ( or any other pot of money that comes to mind )


Albo might have irritated a nest of vipers


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## Belli (29 September 2022)

Telamelo said:


> Gerry Harvey slams Labor’s retrospective dividend hit​
> 
> 
> 
> ...




Do you mean the Tax Payer Alert (TA2015/2) on the subject matter and issued by the ATO in May 2015 wasn't sufficient warning to cause companies to exercise some caution about this matter?


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## Dona Ferentes (29 September 2022)

notting said:


> Paying dividends out of capital raising!  It's  insane!



!


----------

