# KO'd 3 times, looking for some friendly advice



## blaze182 (26 November 2014)

Hello, I started 'trading' around 5 months ago and have a bunch of faults/problems I'm trying to nut out and am looking for some advice/guidance/thoughts.

I've sorted some of my biggest mistakes, but the ones that are roasting me time over are the ones I can't seem to find an answer I'm happy with. To give you an idea of the last 5 months...

*The last 5 months*

My current performance: 

Cycle 1 - ~ 2 weeks - $1k Open. ~$1.9k Peak. ~ $200 Close
Cycle 2 - ~ 3 weeks - $1k Open. ~$2.4k Peak. ~$200 Close
Cycle 3 - ~ 2 months - $1k Open. ~4.5K Peak. ~ $219 Close. 
Cycle 4 - ~ Hasn't begun. 

(P.S. Worth noting, in all cycles I never made the peak and slowly lost it, each time I was wiped out in 1 bad position. )

After each cycle I take a break to try and learn my errors and change my method to do better in the next cycle. (I started with 0 rules for trading, now I have 15!) 

I don't mind losing the money (I do ), as I am confident in my methods for analysing and buying into positions - it does work out for the most part, but my money management when I get it wrong leads me down the rabbit hole. 

This only highlights to me that I have some explicit weaknesses, and I haven't found a reliable solution to them either, these being: how to manage my position sizes, take profit and contain losses. 

Can anyone lend some insights from their experience, or even theory on my issues below? I outlined my main concerns and thoughts with each and why I find them difficult to tackle. 

*1. Stop Losses. *

I don't use them because the market can spike stupid at times, I rather absorb the spike and move on, than have my contracts liquidated at an absurdly low level when it IS just a spike - I do set purchase positions and take profit levels at absurd prices, and every now and then they pay off. 

You could argue to set the stop-losses ridiculously low, outside of expected spike ranges; then my argument is where is the point? If it is that low you need to be reassessing your position anyway. 

Thus, I'm a bit lost as to how to use Stop Losses effectively...

*2. Trade value as a percentage of your total account balance? *

I started taking positions in Cycle 1 at 40% of my total account balance, I then revised to 20-25% in Cycle 2, and traded at ~5-10% of the total account balance in Cycle 3. Its quite evident through my cycles the diminishing returns, but it does provide its own form of insulation from short-term volatility. Do you have a set position size, or is it based on other factors? 

*3. When do you take profit? *

What indicators do you find reliable? Or is it purely when you're happy with the profit you've made? I've had several scenarios where my contract reaches a Fib level or some other resistance point and doesn't break resistance, but often many other indicators say YES, STAY IN THE GAME! It then proceeds to fall again - it doesn't bother me a lot, I still profit, but I typically could have profited an additional 20-30% of the total profit that I take. 

I learnt from Cycle 1 that I took profit too early, and was taking approximately 10-20% of the days swing, now I hold on longer, but I still struggle to identify good profit-taking levels. (I guess one could argue that taking 70-75% of a level is good, but to give you an idea of how retarded I am: over the last 3 days I've held GBP/CAD from virtually the lowest point it hit on Monday and had to watch it bounce up and down for three days before taking profit today at no more than I would have if I'd taken it on Monday.)


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## ThingyMajiggy (26 November 2014)

*Re: K/O'd 3 times, looking for some friendly advice*



blaze182 said:


> I don't use them because the market can spike stupid at times, I rather absorb the spike and move on, than have my contracts liquidated at an absurdly low level when it IS just a spike




I'll let the masters answer your questions but just curious, if you are certain that it IS a spike and will come back, why not enter on these spikes instead of already being in a position?


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## blaze182 (26 November 2014)

*Re: K/O'd 3 times, looking for some friendly advice*



ThingyMajiggy said:


> I'll let the masters answer your questions but just curious, if you are certain that it IS a spike and will come back, why not enter on these spikes instead of already being in a position?




I can't predict the spikes or their extent; when they do occur its at a price point I'd not have expected the contract to reach at this point in time, obviously for a reason I don't know. But I'm confident in my research and indicators that the price will improve again - if I did expect the price to drop further I would have obviously set a purchase at that point


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## burglar (26 November 2014)

blaze182 said:


> ... but to give you an idea of how retarded I am: ...




Nearly all of us do that until we get experience ... and then some us still keep doing that.




Q.) How do you avoid big mistakes?
A.) Experience!
Q.) How do you get experience?
A.) Making big mistakes!










Make interesting mistakes, you learn a better lesson!


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## tech/a (26 November 2014)

Your trading CFD's or Forex?



> over the last 3 days I've held GBP/CAD


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## dlineinvestor (26 November 2014)

Hi,
Go to this site it will have all your answers and more. 
Read everything that's free on that site ..... look up his youtube channel watch you will then start to understand what's required to start on the right foot.
Let us know what you think
Cheers
http://www.learntotradethemarket.com/forex-systems-trading-course


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## blaze182 (26 November 2014)

burglar said:


> Nearly all of us do that until we get experience ... and then some us still keep doing that.
> 
> 
> 
> ...




Yes! I can say that for certain, in the last 5 months I've learnt a LOT. I hope I can iron out my major trip-ups soon, it takes a lot of effort and attention to get the returns, its quite crushing to say goodbye overnight LOL. 




tech/a said:


> Your trading CFD's or Forex?




I'm on a CFD account, but trading Forex. I will move into Oil when the time is right (in the market), but for now, I have time available while studying, so I want to try learn (preferably profit) from trading. 




dlineinvestor said:


> Hi,
> Go to this site it will have all your answers and more.
> Read everything that's free on that site ..... look up his youtube channel watch you will then start to understand what's required to start on the right foot.
> Let us know what you think
> ...




Will check it out now!


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## Modest (27 November 2014)

dlineinvestor said:


> Hi,
> Go to this site it will have all your answers and more.
> Read everything that's free on that site ..... look up his youtube channel watch you will then start to understand what's required to start on the right foot.
> Let us know what you think
> ...




x2 and after that check out Walter Peters on Youtube - follows on nicely from Nials stuff.


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## tech/a (27 November 2014)

You can watch "How to" Video's until your old and grey

But here is your problem---



> (P.S. Worth noting, in all cycles I never made the peak and slowly lost it, *each time I was wiped out in 1 bad position.* )




Sim trade your brains out until you understand that taking small losses 
wont wipe you out provided your wins out strip your losses in $ value.

You can have 25 losses and 2 wins and still be spectacularly profitable.

Look up T/H's thread
"Something from nothing"
and take a good look at his scatter chart.

*Reading and watching that rubbish isn't going to do a thing.
Like putting on a band aid to cure a heart attack! *


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## dlineinvestor (27 November 2014)

tech/a said:


> You can watch "How to" Video's until your old and grey
> 
> But here is your problem---
> 
> ...




You are so *wrong* Just because your quick to judge all youtube media as rubbish shows how close minded you are as a trader !
There is good and bad I gave him the good and so did others
 "HAVE you even bothered to hava look.
The answer is *NO*


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## tech/a (27 November 2014)

dlineinvestor said:


> You are so *wrong* Just because your quick to judge all youtube media as rubbish shows how close minded you are as a trader !
> There is good and bad I gave him the good and so did others
> "HAVE you even bothered to hava look.
> The answer is *NO*




Answer is yes I had a look
Typical theory with zero practical application
No eduction on Risk.

Waited a few days for replies
The REASON was/is clear
Why didn't you or someone else point it out?

Point me to the video or section of video that addresses his clear issue?

After20 years trading and systems development rubbish is clear
As crystal
So is advice which does nothing to solve a clear issue,

*Looking forward to your solution and others before I put up a few of mine!!*


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## dlineinvestor (27 November 2014)

Modest said:


> x2 and after that check out Walter Peters on Youtube - follows on nicely from Nials stuff.



 Yes his approach and videos have given good clues to improving


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## tech/a (27 November 2014)

dlineinvestor said:


> Yes his approach and videos have given good clues to improving




Specifically can you point out clues to help the O/P
With his question?
Or are video's your only suggestion?
Surely you have some hints that would help
Hints that you may have picked up whilst viewing videos

Or are loss/risk mitigation techniques something
Not found in the videos you suggest or have viewed
Do you not have experience you can pass on?


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## dlineinvestor (27 November 2014)

tech/a said:


> Specifically can you point out clues to help the O/P
> With his question?
> Or are video's your only suggestion?
> Surely you have some hints that would help
> ...




Risk/loss mitigation are in that site or did you miss that part ?
Anyway I'm much more interested in hearing back from blaze182.
You still have not given any worthy input.......waiting ........


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## tech/a (27 November 2014)

dlineinvestor said:


> Risk/loss mitigation are in that site or did you miss that part ?
> Anyway I'm much more interested in hearing back from blaze182.
> ........




Yep missed it.
Cant find anything of use to our O/P.

Feel free to offer something up--if you have anything at all.

Ill also wait for the O/P if he believes this has helped (Your video's) then Ill butt out.



> You still have not given any worthy input.......waiting




*Other than pointing out his problem *you mean---something that I didn't see anyone else identify.

So why am I being pedantic.

I'm sick of seeing answers to peoples questions which don't
deal with the question.

ANYONE can use google.

In this case the guy gave enough information to define *HIS* problem---wether he realised it or not.
He wants to know what he can do.

So now *YOU* know---tell him!


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## dlineinvestor (27 November 2014)

tech/a said:


> I'm sick of seeing answers to peoples questions which don't
> deal with the question.




Then stop reading 

Everyone that has posted some thing  here *has* relevance

We don't need to satisfy *your* expectations
If you started this thread then your point is valid.


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## tech/a (27 November 2014)

dlineinvestor said:


> Then stop reading
> 
> Everyone that has posted some thing  here *has* relevance
> 
> ...




Your correct you don't.---and you don't!

My point is as valid as yours is about my expectations.
Clearly you have nothing more to help the O/P with his problem.

Ill wait a few days to see what else pops up then help the guy out.

*Better still Ill private mail him* so you guys don't miss out on valuable Video time!


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## blaze182 (27 November 2014)

Sorry its taken me so long to reply. 

I read every post in the Nothing to Something Scalping System thread. It was definitely worth the read, and very interesting. I don't have much to weigh in on it specifically; the OP is on another planet to me. But its given me some ideas I'll try on my account (unrelated to scalping). In particular short-range stop losses and mid-range take profits is something I'd like to try adopting, in tandem with entry/exits at resistance points to try take advantage of reversal swings more effectively, and take action on more possibilities than I would have with a more open or long-term trade. The short Stop Loss level just puts more emphasis on getting in at the correct time, which I guess is what the DOM is all about - timing. 

Regarding the DOM - does the indicator still track buy and sell orders after markets close? i.e. pending orders? 

I was surprised to find the MM will take steps to stop you trading (understandable though). Now I understand why my friend* told me to use a DMA platform; given my 'skill' and inability to manage money effectively right now I don't think its making too much of a difference LOL. 

I'll admit I didn't find the videos on LearnToTradeTheMarket helpful. That said, I did find some of the articles interesting, primarily the ones pertaining to pyramiding and stop loss leveling. It's something I've thought about each time I picked up on a large swing; but until I sort my money management issues I haven't bothered to research or attempt it. I think on largely expected swings it would be worth knowing for sure, and I will learn it eventually  

Walter Peters videos (I've only seen 2) could be better than the LearnToTradeTheMarket videos, they seem to go into a little more detail, I'll watch some more tonight. Again I found interest in the pyramiding and booking profit while extending the position which I guess is a form of money management  

The most important thing for me right now is trying to adopt a money management strategy that works; I will try the Scalping OPs very short stops in context with a new, shorter window, higher frequency swing setup, but I'll maintain the use of all my current indicators, as they seem for the most part do me well. (By shorter window, I will try to close my trades within a 4 hour window as opposed to 1-2 days. The only time I'll break the rule is when something looks like its making a run for the border )

*Frenemy.

P.S. I had to take a snap of this, its relevant to me haha.


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## dlineinvestor (27 November 2014)

tech/a said:


> Your correct you don't.---and you don't!
> 
> My point is as valid as yours is about my expectations.
> Clearly you have nothing more to help the O/P with his problem.
> ...



* Better still stay on topic when you post looks like you have 14,000 too many *


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## Joe Blow (27 November 2014)

Folks can we stay on topic, avoid personal attacks, and offer constructive comments and advice only please.

The OP specifically requested friendly advice. It would be nice to see some.


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## dlineinvestor (27 November 2014)

blaze182 said:


> Sorry its taken me so long to reply.
> 
> I read every post in the Nothing to Something Scalping System thread. It was definitely worth the read, and very interesting. I don't have much to weigh in on it specifically; the OP is on another planet to me. But its given me some ideas I'll try on my account (unrelated to scalping). In particular short-range stop losses and mid-range take profits is something I'd like to try adopting, in tandem with entry/exits at resistance points to try take advantage of reversal swings more effectively, and take action on more possibilities than I would have with a more open or long-term trade. The short Stop Loss level just puts more emphasis on getting in at the correct time, which I guess is what the DOM is all about - timing.
> 
> ...




Glad to hear some things were useful, each one of us has our own perspective on what may help.
Take what you think is helpful and leave the rest it costs you nothing.
Cheers


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## skc (27 November 2014)

tech/a said:


> But here is your problem---




+1.



> (P.S. Worth noting, in all cycles I never made the peak and slowly lost it, each time I was wiped out in 1 bad position. )




And it's a easy problem to solve. Have a stop!

Run some backtest on your own trading to see the impact of having a stop. How often do you get spiked out? Are you still in net profit after that? If you are not profitable as a result, play around your stop position or strategy to see if it can be improved. Otherwise, you simply don't have enough of a profitable edge.

With most trading, but especially leverage instruments like FX/CFDs, not having a stop is simply a guarantee to being KO'd on a long enough timeframe. You may find success in the short term (as you have during the 3 cycles), as the market does have a mean-reversion tendency that works a lot of the time. So you can sometimes afford to be offside by a mile, hold and pray and have the position come back in the green (many learn the wrong lesson here about having conviction - when in fact they just couldn't admit they got it wrong). But over a long enough timeframe, this approach stops working and you lose all the little gains you've made in one go.

Risk management ain't free. There is no other way of avoiding big loss except for stopping a loss when it's small. The cost of that is potential profits foregone, and it's a cost of the trading business. It can be optimised / reduced, but it's not avoidable.


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## tech/a (27 November 2014)

Further to SKC's comments.

*Some positive and specific comment regarding our O/Ps problem.*

There are 3 ways to profit in the market other than Arbitrage 

*(1)* *Have more winning trades than losing trades*---where the cumulative total of winning trades exceeds the cumulative total of losing trades. (Having more winning trades in itself may not mean you are profitable--infact you can go broke).

*(2)* *Have larger winning trades than losing trades*----where the cumulative total of winning trades exceeds the cumulative total of losing trades. (Bigger winners than losers will not in itself guarantee profit--in fact you can go broke)

*(3) A combination of both.*

This is known as a positive expectancy---but before we explore how to get there lets clear a few common mis understood "Facts" 

Many believe a positive expectancy is determined at the point of placing a trade.
They believe that the trade which has a potential to move from $1 to $1.50 with a risk of 50c has given you the trader a positive expectancy. this is nothing more than a positive potential.

Positive expectancy can only be determined from closed trades where we know profit and loss.
If we have 2 x profit to every loss we have a positive expectancy of 2.

In your case you kill your positive expectancy with one bad trade---not once but 3 times.

Lets have a look at Trembling Hands Scatter chart to further illustrate during this discussion.

*Click to Expand*





Now have a look at *AREA 1* here you'll see a sharp rise in profit
There are LOTS more wins than losses.
There are Much larger wins than losses.
This is clearly number 3 of the list above.

*AREA 2*
There are lots more losses than wins and you'll note that the
amount gained doesn't out weigh the amount lost.
This is what a breakdown in positive expectancy looks like.

*AREA 3*
Same number of trades but a clear increase in winning size to losing size.
Hence a sharp rise to profit again.

*Stat 1*
Less wins than losses

BUT  

*Stat 2*
Average win nearly twice that of average loss.

Clearly this days trading has an overall positive expectancy.

So you can clearly see the adage of Cut losers short and let winners run.

Personally I'm more ruthless again. Those who know my trading style know I have a load of Break even trades.
These trades have a *MASSIVE* effect on my final expectancy not to mention my peace of mind.
Its common for me to set a B/E stop and go to bed. Often I'm stopped out but very so often I get 80-150 ticks on the DAX at $35 AU a tick.

Just consider this.

(1) If I set a 20 tick Stop loss and have that hit more often than not say 20 out of 25 trades
then I'm down 500 ticks.
(2) If I'm stopped out at B/E I'm down ----Brokerage.

5 trades at say 100 tick profit at (1) I'm at a net loss
at (2) I'm at a really healthy profit and expectancy.

So what I have come to do in refining my trading is.

*(1) ENTRY*

Hopping onto momentum is a lot easier than anticipating coming momentum.
I can move the B/E more often and far quicker if I've hopped on board momentum.
The only time my stop is hit is when momentum fools me. I have 4 momentum trade triggers.

*Ill share one here.*




*(2) Trade Management.*

Always get stop to B/E be very happy if stopped at B/E as 90% of the time you'd have been stopped at a loss stop!
Add to trades if momentum signals continuation
Treat this trade as a single trade.
Hold trades longer if they are coming to a known resistance or support level 
Hold O/N ( I get up at 5 am so can close night trades first thing.) If that level is a long way away and it is clear enough that price is trending toward it--long or short.

*(3) Exit.*

Momentum comes in different intensities.
Low resists in lower time frames
Stronger blasts through. Identify suspected intensity to determine hold time.
(I hold from 1 min to 5 hrs) Rarely O/N unless its crystal clear in my mind.

*Finally*.
Trade on SIM for hrs until you can read exactly what your seeing on the chart.
It will be like you have a sixth sense.
You'll see a setup and know *EXACTLY* what its likely to do.

Don't trade if your Under-capitalized!---EVER!

Now back to my video!


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## tech/a (28 November 2014)

Was a great Video on all last night.

" Silence of the Muppets "


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## trainspotter (28 November 2014)

Your humour is droll but I do enjoy a good laugh now and then tech/a


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## dlineinvestor (28 November 2014)

tech/a said:


> Was a great Video on all last night.
> 
> " Silence of the Muppets "



LOL ... glad you posted some thing *on* topic. 
I read it several times it does not include everything (entry parameters) It's not a trading system but it *does* hold information usually hidden to most traders. +1
Unfortunately your black and white views are still flawed. 
Good information and feedback comes in many forms, books, experience *and* media as the OP mentioned was helpful.
"Analysing ones trading performance" is a rarely mentioned few know of the *tools* / software and know to track trading performance. There's another thread all on it's own. 
Take it away duckman .....


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## tech/a (28 November 2014)

dlineinvestor said:


> LOL ... glad you posted some thing *on* topic.
> I read it several times it does not include everything (entry parameters) It's not a trading system but it *does* hold information* usually hidden to most traders*. +1




Seriously its clear I have to explain how to digest and apply that which I have written!
See below as well.



> Unfortunately your black and white views are still flawed.
> Good information and feedback comes in many forms, books, experience *and* media as the OP mentioned was helpful.




No one has yet been able to direct me to where in the videos suggested---specific help for his problem is??!!
Reason being is there is nothing but general stuff designed to act as a lure to attract a new client.
*Good information is RARE.* In any format.




> *"Analysing ones trading performance" is a rarely mentioned few know of the tools / software and know to track trading performance.* There's another thread all on it's own.
> Take it away duckman .....




That's which is hidden to MOST TRADERS is still hidden from your self.(In bold)
You think that is how to solve his problem---ey ey ey ey ey!

To be honest there is only 1 post on topic --- my in depth answer.
A lot of stuff written up here from experienced guys is lost on the masses---they just don't know what it is they are looking at!


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## Modest (28 November 2014)

Tech/a you might as well have told the op to buy low and sell high and closed the thread.

Your three points are in no doubt right and I am sure op knows this already but what your posts lack (your statements) is the how, when and importantly why. 

Hence the links we provided to the opp - they cover the how, when and why which brings together all the elements into a potential strategy the op can build on or refine his existing strategy.


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## dlineinvestor (28 November 2014)

Here's a little recap for yah tech .. 
I don't make claims to know what you think I should know
I posted a link to some thing that was helpful *as stated in his reply* (did you miss that ????)
*NO it didn't solve the worlds hunger problem !!!* or *all* of his issues. But once again what you missed was he mentioned it broadened his thinking of other possibilities related to his approach next time round.
I will continue to post what *I think* might be helpful to others, they will take what they think is helpful and leave the rest. That is the purpose of a public forum, everyone from different levels can chime in.
*Is this your very own private forum I didn't see the sign's* lol
The problem is you've made this your *life* ! Sad really .... 
Take a holiday and unwind do what ever it takes to keep things in perspective.
Its a public forum ... jokes on you


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## Bronte (28 November 2014)

dlineinvestor said:


> Its a public forum ... jokes on you



*What is the difference between God and our very own tech/a ?*
Just a bit of Friday afternoon fun......


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## blaze182 (28 November 2014)

blaze182 said:


> By shorter window, I will try to close my trades within a 4 hour window as opposed to 1-2 days.




Just to amend my earlier remark on trying to close trades earlier - I'll try to close them when they've run their course; I'll just try to keep them shorter so my doors are open to other trading possibilities* 



dlineinvestor said:


> Glad to hear some things were useful, each one of us has our own perspective on what may help.
> Take what you think is helpful and leave the rest it costs you nothing.
> Cheers




Thanks, I do appreciate the source, as long as something is of value it’s always worth the trip! 



skc said:


> +1.
> And it's a easy problem to solve. Have a stop!
> 
> Run some backtest on your own trading to see the impact of having a stop. How often do you get spiked out? Are you still in net profit after that? If you are not profitable as a result, play around your stop position or strategy to see if it can be improved. Otherwise, you simply don't have enough of a profitable edge.
> ...




That is embarrassingly something I really didn't consider 

I tend to use my demo account to test different trading strategies than refine what I have. If I picked up on something that I wasn't confident or certain of with an indicator or trend, but I'd like to keep track of purely out of curiosity and the 'what if' scenario, I'll just pile into it on the demo to see where it goes.

I will run some back test on trades I actually took and see where they would end, and how I would have potentially placed new orders, TPs and SLs. I know many of my orders would have been stopped out, although they usually came back favourably, in context of my problem its likely irrelevant - I should have just bailed out and provided a lower entry point and re-assessed the swing size and momentum.. but live and learn. I look forward to the results whatever they are 



tech/a said:


> Further to SKC's comments.
> 
> *Some positive and specific comment regarding our O/Ps problem.*
> 
> ...




You and your videos! 

I find this very reassuring, you've outlined roughly what I've been doing, except much safer - with B/E and SLs.

This only emphasises to me I must learn pyramiding too. 

You noted you have 4 momentum trade triggers. I think the one you've outlined is roughly in line with one of mine. I try to seek spikes in context with the overall candle body position, and then I look for any consolidation in pricing over time (time isn't set - its based on how long I expected to be in the trade), narrowing of trade volumes/price activity (i.e. B Bands) and obviously the existing trend momentum, and various support/resistance points. 

Worth noting I always used TPs, I just never used them too far in range of potential, as I usually had them there to take advantage of unexpected spikes; but I'm sure others do this too. 

Thanks a lot for your in-depth break down and analysis. I will definitely be paying heed to (2) Trade Management. This will help me a lot in managing me O/N holdings, purely in peace of mind - I lost some sleep on large open trades 

-----------------------------------------------------------------------

I just made an analysis of my last profitable trade and realised, using SL's (to book profit) and pyramiding it would have made me a significant amount more. Assuming I made SLs and reinvested gains at Fib points, on a $1,030 investment, with a pure buy low, sell high, it would net $2,608 in 3 days. If I use SLs, TPs and Pyramiding, it would have netted $3,603.62. That's quite significant.. I have a lot to learn. The total at risk would only be $30 too.

EDIT: I have got a small order trade on the books, it could lead somewhere, it might not - I hope OPEC does nothing about oil. Then I can try pyramiding


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## trainspotter (28 November 2014)

Bronte said:


> *What is the difference between God and our very own tech/a ?*
> Just a bit of Friday afternoon fun......




God has fewer disciples


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## Bronte (28 November 2014)

Bronte said:


> *What is the difference between God and our very own tech/a ?*
> Just a bit of Friday afternoon fun......



God doesn't loiter around stock forums thinking that he is tech/a   
Have a great weekend, one and all.


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## lesm (28 November 2014)

trainspotter said:


> God has fewer disciples




Must be Friday


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## tech/a (29 November 2014)

*Blaze*

Will look at some specifics with regard to the 3 profit makers with regard to strategy/trading plan development

Flat out with very elderly parents
But will respond when I can

Sunday is always demanding ----- you know how it is.


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## tech/a (29 November 2014)

> (1) Have more winning trades than losing trades---where the cumulative total of winning trades exceeds the cumulative total of losing trades. (Having more winning trades in itself may not mean you are profitable--in fact you can go broke).




_Firstly I will disregard the "Method" where by traders hold trades that are losers in definitely to claim they haven't liquidated a loss as they are still in a position and winners only are liquidated._

In this scenario (more winning trades than losing trades) you generally find there are more trades.
The trades are shorter in time frame and may not have a formal stop loss. I have found traders who are instantly decisive are best suited to this style.They don't hesitate when taking a trade---closing a trade or stopping a trade. They are very fast and are generally all in --- not loading up a trade. This is suited to DOM trading/Volume/price/Bots--- trading where its clear to the trader instantly and risk can be very minimal. 
Smaller time frame charts I find best (1 min)



> (2) Have larger winning trades than losing trades----where the cumulative total of winning trades exceeds the cumulative total of losing trades. (Bigger winners than losers will not in itself guarantee profit--in fact you can go broke)




Extended time frames but very tight stops and I have found bringing to B/E quickly increases my closed trade Profit to Loss ration dramatically. I can trade more often (Not sticking around in no mans land between buy price and stop loss (When its wider) waiting to profit or having my stop taken out. This suits my trading style where I look to hop on momentum and ride it until I can see its stopping. If I miss time it ill miss a few ticks as it comes back on me to stop me out at B/E.

Every now and then Ill be taken out because I get it completely wrong fro the get go. There is ALWAYS a technical stop very close that I use. This is suited to Volume/Price and Pattern Analysis. I'm sure there are other methods but that is my chosen analysis.

Id don't trade every session I wait for volatility in other markets before I trade. I want momentum and I don't care which way. 1 min then 3 min charts I find best 



> (3) A combination of both.




For me this is additional to 2. If I'm on a clear momentum trade I will add quickly. I'm a small futures trader with 3 being my max placement.(For the DAX that's around $110 a tick.)

Here I'll either close contracts as weakness appears and hold one or 2 longer or Ill just close them all on an obvious fast rally ---If I'm at the screen. My aim is to have a contract running if possible in the key direction.
On Rare occasions Ill hold one over night and have traded short term around it.

In these trades you'll always have to give back some profit to gain more profit. Often its adding to the position while its correcting that helps the bottom line. but it takes a long time to identify corrections in a move or a reversal of sentiment.
One is profitable and one is a profit killer.

1,3 then 9 min I find best here.

I can post some chart later if your interested


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## blaze182 (29 November 2014)

tech/a said:


> *Blaze*
> 
> Will look at some specifics with regard to the 3 profit makers with regard to strategy/trading plan development
> 
> ...




Cheers! Appreciate it, good luck with the parents, hope all goes well 




tech/a said:


> _Firstly I will disregard the "Method" where by traders hold trades that are losers in definitely to claim they haven't liquidated a loss as they are still in a position and winners only are liquidated._
> 
> In this scenario (more winning trades than losing trades) you generally find there are more trades.
> The trades are shorter in time frame and may not have a formal stop loss. I have found traders who are instantly decisive are best suited to this style.They don't hesitate when taking a trade---closing a trade or stopping a trade. They are very fast and are generally all in --- not loading up a trade. This is suited to DOM trading/Volume/price/Bots--- trading where its clear to the trader instantly and risk can be very minimal.
> ...




I really do appreciate these scenarios being written out; I've written 3 or 4 different responses so far and deleted them because I come to an answer at the end.

With regard to your 1 min, then 3 min charts - are you looking to trade within these windows, or are you looking for Entry/Exit points? I'm assuming the 9 minute is to identify bigger signals to allow you to synchronize with the 1 or 3 minute charts more accurately? 

If you get time I'd really like to see a chart, and how the 1, 3 and 9 minute frames are utilised as part of the whole picture. 



tech/a said:


> Here I'll either close contracts as weakness appears and hold one or 2 longer or Ill just close them all on an obvious fast rally ---If I'm at the screen. My aim is to have a contract running if possible in the key direction.




This is something I need to work on, recognising that the good times are over and cashing in on them - the moving Stop Losses to book profits did help immensely on Friday - I will likely always use these to move further ahead than just B/E to compensate for this problem until I find another solution. This worked well for me yesterday, so thanks.. this thread has already been of value! 

P.S. Given these shorter time-spans, what technical studies are best applied? Stochastic/ROC come to mind, but these tend to show what is happening - is there anything that provides more foresight like the DOM? 

P.P.S I just checked the DAX, wow that things been flying!


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## tech/a (1 December 2014)

blaze182 said:


> I really do appreciate these scenarios being written out; I've written 3 or 4 different responses so far and deleted them because I come to an answer at the end.
> 
> With regard to your 1 min, then 3 min charts - are you looking to trade within these windows, or are you looking for Entry/Exit points? I'm assuming the 9 minute is to identify bigger signals to allow you to synchronize with the 1 or 3 minute charts more accurately?




I initially have a look at the big picture--longer term. Then drill it down to the immediate trade timeframe.
Sometimes it will be obvious in the 9 min frame the position that should be taken--continuation or reversal.
In particular I'm looking for Support and resistance areas and their strength. Longer term ones with multiple tests are stronger than those found in the lower timeframes. High volume particularly on APPROACHING S or R indicates that its likely to hold. Volume as it pushes through----or where it is low and just continues to rise or fall---indicates continuation. This can and is seen in the various timeframes 1,3,9. Some trades don't last past 1
I will shift timeframes as pivot's in a lower timeframe move me to the next. Of course as soon as I have a pivot in any time above my buy price I move to B/E. If stopped rinse and repeat.

The earlier I'm on a move (In a session) the better.



> If you get time I'd really like to see a chart, and how the 1, 3 and 9 minute frames are utilised as part of the whole picture.




When I'm on Ill attempt to do one win lose or draw as it happens. But have a few things on at the moment.




> This is something I need to work on, recognising that the good times are over and cashing in on them - the moving Stop Losses to book profits did help immensely on Friday - I will likely always use these to move further ahead than just B/E to compensate for this problem until I find another solution. This worked well for me yesterday, so thanks.. this thread has already been of value!




This will happen in various timeframes. Immediate exit means less profit more often---calculated holding means larger wins less often. Unfortunately and experience thing.



> P.S. Given these shorter time-spans, what technical studies are best applied? Stochastic/ROC come to mind, but these tend to show what is happening - is there anything that provides more foresight like the DOM?




What I'm describing here are discretionary shorter term methods. Personally I find ALL indicators far to slow. Infact the only place I've found useful for some indicators is in system design on a weekly or EOD basis.



> P.P.S I just checked the DAX, wow that things been flying!




Its the European Hang Seng 

Id suggest cutting teeth on Index futures using the FTSE or SPI.


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## blaze182 (2 December 2014)

tech/a said:


> I initially have a look at the big picture--longer term. Then drill it down to the immediate trade timeframe.
> Sometimes it will be obvious in the 9 min frame the position that should be taken--continuation or reversal.
> In particular I'm looking for Support and resistance areas and their strength. Longer term ones with multiple tests are stronger than those found in the lower timeframes. High volume particularly on APPROACHING S or R indicates that its likely to hold. Volume as it pushes through----or where it is low and just continues to rise or fall---indicates continuation. This can and is seen in the various timeframes 1,3,9. Some trades don't last past 1
> I will shift timeframes as pivot's in a lower timeframe move me to the next. Of course as soon as I have a pivot in any time above my buy price I move to B/E. If stopped rinse and repeat.
> ...





I'm beginning to feel a bit the same regarding indicators, etc. I'm finding drawing and anticipating emerging patterns is more useful, and trading 'with the grain' as someone mentioned here (or in another thread) that it is better to trade with the market than against it. 

I might reset my demo account and start with $1K AUD, focus on 2-5 trades per day, and at the end of 2 weeks I'll post the results here. I'll try to stick strictly to patterns and technical analysis rather than trading economic data, etc.

I will stop trading real cash and wait until I'm much more certain and quick in interpreting my technical data and recognising patterns. 

I also want to move to a DMA platform, and will focus on trading cash indexes. 

If nobody objects I'll swap my IG account to their DMA platform; unless there's a better alternative?


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## tech/a (2 December 2014)

> If you get time I'd really like to see a chart, and how the 1, 3 and 9 minute frames are utilized as part of the whole picture.




A really good time for an example here playing out now.
Im short at 10035 with an initial stop at 10048

(Just went to B/E)

Now the daily shows the setup.
Followed by the 1 min to take the trade
Then the 3 min to confirm and I move to B/E

Now at 10014 and I'm watching price action here as we have had another test which appears to have failed.

*Click to expand.*


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## tech/a (2 December 2014)

Update 
at a critical area
There is some volume here sorting out direction.
If it breaks below this support it is likely to drop
like a stone. If not it is likely to range.

*Click to expand*.


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## tech/a (2 December 2014)

And out at 82
will post up why with charts soon.

*Click to Expand*


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## tech/a (2 December 2014)

Thats it tonight a good night and a typical one if all plays well.
Only traded 1 contract but + $1938 for an hrs work.

Tech analysis --they say it doesn't work---well some do!


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## blaze182 (2 December 2014)

Tech/A thank-you so much for taking the time to do this!  

Its immensely helpful. I was actually watching that spike before on the demo, but I was playing with Fib fans rather than trading haha. 

Looking at where you exited, on the Fib fan you're right, it was recovering, but it (obviously) failed the next resistance. 

How long were you watching the DAX and did you have your eyes on anything else? Or 100% focused on the one Index? 

Also congrats on the nice profit!


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## fiftyeight (2 December 2014)

Agreed, cheers for that 

Links in to a post of mine about how to interrupt volume at different times of a session. Something I am struggling with and have been pondering quite a bit.

Is there a reason you chose to use Tradeguider for the charts? Surely you are not looking at their indicators haha


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## Modest (3 December 2014)

Tech/a very good posts thanks for taking the time I also found them useful


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## blaze182 (3 December 2014)

fiftyeight said:


> Is there a reason you chose to use Tradeguider for the charts? Surely you are not looking at their indicators haha




What do you mean by '...not looking at their indicators'? I've never used them but I'm just curious why you said it. 

Their 'VSA' looks interesting


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## fiftyeight (3 December 2014)

Their has been some robust discussion about tradeguider and their indicators and more specifically the entry and exit signals. T/A has previously said he pays little attention to these, I was being a smart@ss.

But I do want to know why he used tradeguider in his posts?


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## tech/a (3 December 2014)

fiftyeight said:


> Their has been some robust discussion about tradeguider and their indicators and more specifically the entry and exit signals. T/A has previously said he pays little attention to these, I was being a smart@ss.
> 
> But I do want to know why he used tradeguider in his posts?




*The main reason is* that my Esignal real time feed goes straight to my Tradeguider R/T software.

After studying/using and developing (My own Volume Spread triggers) over the last 12 yrs now I've found a number of things.

(1) EVERYONE thinks the little triangles are trade triggers.--Well possibly except me and Gavin Holmes and Tom Williams. They are Volume Spread characteristics which INDICATE a possible Volume Spread occurrence.
They should be read in context to the chart landscape in the time frame you are looking at.Particularly good if indicated in various time frames.

(2) The software misses a lot of very good legitimate signals.
Now an algorithm finds it impossible to operate like the human brain although some neural networks I'm told will soon recognize the things I see that many others don't. That face in the crowd analogy.

Frankly the software while having paid for itself on almost a weekly basis is very good for what it is it is clunky and could be designed far far better.

I've been waiting for Todd Kruger's VSA software for 2 yrs and promises to be awesome---

Here is the one minute chart from last night --- plus a bit and the next is a little feature that I watch while trading just to see what other time frames are doing.







Hope this helps a bit.
I'm not trading tonight ---got home late


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## tech/a (3 December 2014)

> Links in to a post of mine about how to interrupt volume at different times of a session. Something I am struggling with and have been pondering quite a bit.




Maybe this may help.
Tonight is looking like a ranging night
and as such a smaller time frame chart is easier to trade off.

*Click to expand*

Have a look at these charts.


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## tech/a (3 December 2014)

Sometimes we miss the obvious
These are where we should be looking for opportunity
this is where you ask---Is support or resistance holding
what will my trade be---IF??

*Click to expand*


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## blaze182 (3 December 2014)

EDIT: Just realised you posted what I just asked for. 

You confirmed what I was curious about! 

Its a powerful swing tool - you could argue that anyone who sees a large spike would be able to assume a correction, but at times (e.g. ~5.20) they look significant on the chart, but don't have much significance in the VSA. 

This is an awesome confirmation indicator.


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## fiftyeight (4 December 2014)

Cheers Tech, will have a ponder over your charts today


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## blaze182 (4 December 2014)

I was analysing the last chart tech/a posted, comparing my indicators for entry-exit with the VSA. 

https://www.aussiestockforums.com/forums/attachment.php?attachmentid=60585

What is interesting is that the VSA would allow me to get in earlier - 1 or 2 minutes with confidence, which is a 7 to 13 point difference depending where you executed. 

I applied dozens (20 or 30) overlays and technical studies to evaluate which ones gave the best indication of this spike and down trend - I know its not helpful moving forward, but I was curious to see which would have been best in this scenario. 

The answer is none - absolutely none gave any advantage over the other - they all indicated between 19:04 and 19:08 that a downtrend had begun, and none would be very helpful in keeping me in the trade, outside of my wedge drawings, and S&R lines. 

At least now I know exactly the setup and technical studies I'll be using to help me while holding positions.

Just goes to show, how true this is: 


tech/a said:


> Personally I find ALL indicators far to slow. Infact the only place I've found useful for some indicators is in system design on a weekly or EOD basis.




I can agree that longer term they are much better at indicating trend strength and direction, again, I doubt they'd be anywhere close to fast in catching a reversal before it changed direction significantly. 

Is there an ETA/Price for Todd Krueger's VSA software/plugin? 

Sadly IG offers no such indicator.. I'm probably going to have to setup a completely different data/trading platform


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