# MOS - Mosaic Oil



## yogi-in-oz (9 December 2005)

Warning ..... astrostuff ahead:

Hi folks,

MOS ..... chart looking more positive now and
Santa is on his way for MOSers..... 

Looking for a BIG rally especially around 19-23122005, 
with news expected on 22122005 .....

..... but, dont get too excited, as we will be alert
for a negative move around 02-04012006 ... a high???

happy trading

   yogi


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## michael_selway (9 December 2005)

*Re: MOS alert ..... astrostuff .....*



			
				yogi-in-oz said:
			
		

> Warning ..... astrostuff ahead:
> 
> Hi folks,
> 
> ...




are u talking about Mosaic Oil NL?

What price did u get it at?


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## Alien (9 December 2005)

*Re: MOS alert ..... astrostuff .....*



			
				yogi-in-oz said:
			
		

> Warning ..... astrostuff ahead:
> 
> Hi folks,
> 
> ...




Yogi,

I am heavily invested in MOS. I think they offer very good value. 

Is the expected news to do with the glagged "other parties" interest in the company. 

Would very much like to hear more from you about this.

Regards
Alien


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## yogi-in-oz (9 December 2005)

*Re: MOS alert ..... astrostuff .....*



Hi folks,

MOS ..... has been range bound from about 12-29 cents
for a few years and offers traders only a couple of rallies
each year, with this month being one of them.

Whatever the news in December 05, it will likely be
positive to reinforce the recent change-in-trend.

have a great weekend

   yogi


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## michael_selway (9 December 2005)

*Re: MOS alert ..... astrostuff .....*



			
				yogi-in-oz said:
			
		

> Hi folks,
> 
> MOS ..... has been range bound from about 12-29 cents
> for a few years and offers traders only a couple of rallies
> ...




Thanks but seems very much like gambling to me, MOS not really a medium-long term stock?


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## yogi-in-oz (22 December 2005)

*Re: MOS alert ..... astrostuff .....*



Hi folks,

Right now, MOS is at the end of a long time
cycle and it is not unusual to see support
or resistance tested, at such times.

Chart also shows MOS has been trading
range-bound, since November 2003 and
this time may well be the final test of
the lows, before a significant breakout.

That longer time cycle also lines up with
2 positive MOS cycles on 22122005, which
may bring a more positive reaction than
many traders would expect ..... 

..... especially with the negative sentiment
being expressed about MOS on the forums
at present, a MOS would seem to be a
contrarian's dream.

That said, it is unlikely that MOS will gain
new supporters, until it breaks above
previous resistance, around 22.5 and 25 cents.

Check out the updated MOS chart,at:

MOS chart ..... updated 20122005 ..... 

happy trading

yogi


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## yogi-in-oz (22 December 2005)

*Re: MOS alert ..... astrostuff .....*



Hi folks,

MOS ..... as per post above, news comes in right 
on time ..... being the only announcement in the 
past month ..... !~!

At least the uncertainty about the "potential investor"
has been clarified, so their focus should now be on
what it takes to get that drill bit turning to the right ..... 

Volume up, price down = blow-off low  ...???

happy days

   yogi


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## Alien (19 January 2006)

*Re: MOS alert ..... astrostuff .....*

Could well be an interesting month coming up for MOS - Mosaic Oil. 

They are due to drill the Waggamba 1 well sometime this month and 2nd Quarter results due out later this month which should produce an increase in revenue/profit from an increased oil price and likely increased production from some minor setbacks during the 1st quarter. 

Share price has seemed to settle around the 17.5c with a slowdown in volume since the ann that potential investor negotiations have ceased. 

Other forum members views would be appreciated.

Alien


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## yogi-in-oz (30 March 2006)

Hi folks,

MOS ..... liftoff, with some good volume
this time, ahead of some positive news 
expected, around:

     31032006 ..... minor

     17042006 ..... significant and positive ... finances???

     24042006 ..... minor and negative???

     02052006 ..... minor and positive

  03-04052006 ..... significant and positive???

     11052006 ..... minor and positive

     15052006 ..... significant and negative ... finances???

  22-29052006 ..... underlying positive tone here.

     25052006 ..... minor and positive

     02062006 ..... minor

     08062006 ..... minor and positive ... finances???

     12062006 ..... significant and positive news???

  22-23062006 ..... minor

     04072006 ..... spotlight on MOS ... finances??


happy trading

  yogi


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## Alien (30 March 2006)

MOS - up 15.15% today on large volume. I am very happy to say the least. 

Does anyone have any news on why the sudden increase? I would be very interested to know.

Regards
Alien


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## YOUNG_TRADER (30 March 2006)

Article in AIR which has Intersuisse putting a spec buy valuation of 20c on the stock heres the link hope it works


http://www.aireview.com/index.php?act=view&catid=8&id=3771


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## yogi-in-oz (19 May 2006)

Hi folks,

MOS ..... almost primed to move, with good
support showing on the lower edge of the ellipse,
we can expect some positive moves over the
next month or so ..... 

Key dates for MOS, may be:

22-29052006 ..... underlying positive tone here.

25052006 ..... minor and positive

02062006 ..... minor

08062006 ..... minor and positive ... finances???

12062006 ..... significant and positive news???

22-23062006 ..... minor

04072006 ..... 2 cycles ... spotlight on MOS ... finances??

MOS chart attached, shows a long cycle coming into
play, around 29062006 (thick blue vertical line) 
... this market may be flat for a few days after,
then we should see the next positive cycles, 
around 04072006.

Similarly, another two long cycles will feature,
around 01-04092006 and yet another in early
January 2007, about 02-04012007 ... a low???

have a great weekend all

      yogi

P.S. ..... holding MOS.


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## yogi-in-oz (24 May 2006)

Hi folks,

MOS ... just to add ... technically, we saw a doji
candle pattern form yesterday, which should be 
confirmed as the low, by the subsequent price action
over the next few days ..... already, we are seeing
good supporting volume go through today and a strong
finish above .155 would confirm that doji, as a low ... 

happy days

yogi

P.S. ..... holding MOS.


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## yogi-in-oz (2 July 2006)

Hi folks,

MOS ..... as per post on 19052006, we will
be alert for a rally this week .....

..... tweezers double-bottom candle formation
in June 2006, at the same level as the Sept 2004
lows, has been confirmed with the recent price action.


See attached chart ..... 

With a major time cycle this weekend and 2 positive
time cycles coming into play this week, we will be 
looking forward to the next upleg for MOS.

happy days

  yogi


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## nioka (31 August 2006)

*MOS. Is it a good investment at todays price*

MOS.   One of my worst investments to date but one I have hopes for. Am I right or wrong.


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## CanOz (31 August 2006)

*Re: MOS. Is it a good investment at todays price*

It closed off the low today on above average volume, short term it may bounce then range before starting a new trend. The weekly chart shows a triple top which if challenged in the future, should be ovecome. Sorry I cannot attach a chart. 

Its not one of my favorites, i like TAP better, but long term how can you go wrong with oil?


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## nioka (31 August 2006)

*Re: MOS. Is it a good investment at todays price*



			
				CanOz said:
			
		

> It closed off the low today on above average volume, short term it may bounce then range before starting a new trend. The weekly chart shows a triple top which if challenged in the future, should be ovecome. Sorry I cannot attach a chart.
> 
> Its not one of my favorites, i like TAP better, but long term how can you go wrong with oil?



The charts don't relate to the announcements or the financials. Maybe it relates to the low Qld price of gas used in electricity generation!


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## Alien (5 September 2006)

I think MOS is greatly undervalued IMHO. Market capitalisation of $70m with asset producing Oil and Gas fields. 

They also have a few drilling results coming out in the next few weeks that could make a difference (more more significant than others). 

Waggamba1H, Fairymount7 & Downlands4 should results to be announced shortly with other fields starting to be drilled later in the year/early next year. 

There share price has been dropping due to not a lot of new wells being drilled. This is changing and with a little success there share price will rise with limited downside. 

I own shares in MOS and recently have been buying more at 14.5c and intend to hold on to them awaiting the outcomes of these drilling results over the next couple of weeks. 

Note: Use your own research before investing.


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## Impala (26 September 2006)

Interesting to read past postings about this company, fair amount of optimism, not backed by share performance.  I think the Board is quite weak; it needs 1-2 hard nosed people on it who have a sustained track record of oil exploration/development success.  The Chairman is a "nice man", they have a history of coming last.  The latest report is poor, the company has underperformed against its own forecasts of $16m revenues.  Usual excuses.  I think it lacks a clear vision to create value for its shareholders.  Given its modest turnover, there are several well paid executives who appear to have picked up substantial performance bonuses.  What for?  Non-performance?  The institutional shareholders of the company should get together and for once in their lives take the company to task for its poor performance.  They should have a plan B to replace the directors and review both strategic direction and the concept of performance management that obviously isn't working.  Am I missing something?


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## MalteseBull (27 September 2006)

I noticed that too Impala

MOS is a good oiler to have in the basket long term

at oil at such a low price and MOS at its 52 week low.. this is a catch imho

p.s check out the buyer depth


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## Impala (28 September 2006)

Thanks Maltese Bull.  Well, I'm not into self back patting but it seems like the Chairman has resigned today over a difference of opinion with the Board! Perhaps the directors read Aussie Stock Forums!! Will hold, but still think the market cap is too high for the financial results.  Surely the market is placing a huge premium on future exploration results?


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## MalteseBull (2 October 2006)

looking ready to run?


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## Impala (17 October 2006)

Brokers that know Mosaic remain positive.  Value's evidently in the future prospects.  Risky but well worth holding. Its just not possible to say whether its "ready to run".  Patience in mining and oil sotcks is vital.


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## nioka (19 October 2006)

Impala said:
			
		

> Thanks Maltese Bull.  Well, I'm not into self back patting but it seems like the Chairman has resigned today over a difference of opinion with the Board! Perhaps the directors read Aussie Stock Forums!! Will hold, but still think the market cap is too high for the financial results.  Surely the market is placing a huge premium on future exploration results?



Another director resigned today. (Refer company announcements). More shakeup ? There's hope yet.


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## Alien (19 October 2006)

Here's hoping for a positive result from the Churchie West - 1 drilling currently being undertaken. 

I think the market are also valuing some of Mosaic's more valuable assets. Such as its share in the Hurricane well (6%). Estimated reserves of 80m BO in place. Due to be drilled early next year. Then there is also its share in PNG around 28% in 1TCF of gas. Not to mention its other prospects in churchie & waggamba. 

With current production levels and sales contracts in place and no debt, Mos only need some moderate success on the exploration path to start to show share price growth. Farm outs have limited the costs of this exploration and at a Mark Cap of around $77m the eralier takeover talk that was imminent can't be far away again. 

I own shares in MOS and intend on holding. As always do your own research.

Happy investing.


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## yogi-in-oz (25 October 2006)

Hi folks,


MOS ..... brought in Churchie West-1 today, with a 
50 metre payzone flowing at 3.5 mmcfd and 118psi,
through a 1 inch choke ..... nice work guys !~!

MOS holds 83 % in this field ..... 

happy days

  yogi

P.S. ..... holding MOS.


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## Alien (25 October 2006)

Surprisingly the market has not overly reacted to the positive news at Churchie West 1. 

As Yogi in Oz reported I would have thought a payzone of 50 metres and good stabilized gas flows would have pushed this higher. After going from 16c to 17c it has dropped back to its pre-open price of 16c.

With substanially improved oil flows from workover on its oil wells last quarter and positive results from Downlands 1 and now Churchie West i think the shares are exceptional value. 

Can't afford to buy anymore though. I am sitting on quite a bundle. 

We will wait to see where this one goes, but it is looking good so far.

Alien


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## yogi-in-oz (1 December 2006)

Hi folks,

MOS ... chart is looking a lot better now ... but,
will wait for some good news before re-entering
this one ... took a marginal profit in November,
when MOS failed to perform as expected.

Looking ahead, 12122006-12012007 brings a period
of positive underlying sentiment and may bring
some news of hi-tech developments being used (???)

At the same time, that same period is likely to
be quite volatile, as there's several major
negative cycles coming into play, as well:

04122006 ... minor and difficult cycle here

15-18122006 ... minor and difficult cycle

20122006 ... significant and negative - finances???

22122006 ... minor and difficult cycle

02012007 ... negative spotlight on MOS

04012007 ... significant and negative news expected.

12-15012007 ... minor and difficult cycle

16-19012007 ... BIG reaction.

22012007 ... minor and difficult cycle

01022007 ... 2 cycles - significant and negative.

06022007 ... significant and positive - finances???

13-15022007 ... positive news expected here ... 

02-05032007 ... 2 cycles positive spotlight on MOS,
offset by negative finances(???)

13032007 ... minor and difficult cycle

27032007 ... significant and positive - finances???

29032007 ... significant and positive news expected.

02042007 ... negative spotlight on MOS


..... as promising as MOS chart is looking now, this
stock continues to trade in a very flat trading range,
so not expecting anything spectacular, right now.

Watching MOS.

happy days

yogi



=====


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## Alien (20 December 2006)

Market turnover of just under 3,000,000 shares today and buyer depth is starting to dwindle. Closed at 15c.

I think with limited ann this could drift lower. A lot of prospects coming around in Feb/Mar with some drilling occurring. 

Could be some value purchasing around the 14c mark over the next couple of months.


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## Alien (23 January 2007)

I have noticed increased volume for Mosaic Oil over the last week. They have held steady even with a falling Oil price. 

Somebody seems to be snapping up these shares at 15.5c and then selling a small parcel at 15c at the close of trading. Over 4.2 million volume so far today and 3m plus last yesterday which is substantially more than usual.


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## Alien (23 January 2007)

They have just gobbled up the remaining 16c sell side. Now 6.2m volume.

Something is brewing....


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## Alien (23 January 2007)

On close 17c sell side have been bought. Volume over 10 million now. Up over 13% for the day. 

Tomorrow will be interesting.


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## nioka (23 January 2007)

Good to see some movement in this one at last. MOS is one of my "DOGS".I can not work out why it has held at the low price it has for so long.They have good assets in their gas processing facilities and proven gas supplies. They have an income stream. Westpac give them an intrinsic valuation of 20c. There has been speculation of takeover offers in the recent past. With today's trading and price movement I suspect that this may be in the wind again. I also believe it is well under value and this is the reason I have held for so long. Hopefully it is about to lose it's dog tag.


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## camaybay (23 January 2007)

Good chart after little movement. I hope day 2 is better than WMT's.


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## Alien (23 January 2007)

There were 3 Buy orders each for 1million shares at 17c, 16.5 & 16c respectively that have now gone, leaving the buy side with little support.

Tomorrow will be interesting to see if they re-enter during the day. I think they may be looking to accumulate more on fallback and waiting for sell orders to fill up. Whoever they are??

Can we expect an ASX speeding ticket to be issued on the increased volumes and share price. That may shed some light at least to determine if MOS board are aware of anything.

Holding plenty and hoping


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## drmb (23 January 2007)

I used to hold MOS for more than 2 years but got fed up with a stock that did nothing and paid no dividends! So took a loss last year and bought pdn, good move. But still like to check it occasionally and I see a "buyout" thread on HotCopper that MOS is under takeover consideration viz 21/1/07 'solicitors preparing documents for takeover by oilsearch at 25cents. Announcement expected in about amonth" (sic) and 23/1/2007 "takeover news leaked by solicitors staff. Volume today speaks volume. I see a runup to 25c tomorrow. Takeover offer too low. This stock is worth at least 40cents. Daytraders will be all over this one tomorrow. Institutions have been slowly accumulating at 14/15 cents" by oneata - no substantiation or references and do your own research, etc etc.


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## Ken (24 January 2007)

Cooper Energy has become a substantial holder.

Thoughts for both companies????


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## Alien (24 January 2007)

Not exactly the news i was looking for with COE buying a stake in MOS. Was hoping the rumour of OSH would be true.   

Even with the news the stock went as low as 15.5c today but still large support up to 16.5c were it closed with good volume.

Maybe we have not heard the last of this yet....


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## Dutchy3 (24 January 2007)

Here's a chart ... ordinarily I'd be very excited at the way this one moved diring the week. However the lack of follow through today leaves this one sold off with one trading day left this week. If this does not close 17.5 or better tomorrow then breakout talk is premature ... I hold ...


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## Alien (25 January 2007)

Still some support left at 16.5c today where it closed. There was a buy order of 1million at 16c cancelled before close. And a buy right on close for a 200,000+ shares at 16.5c.

Still support around for MOS. Not over yet.


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## thidoan (28 January 2007)

MOS looking good,

whats your opinion on a take over by COE?


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## nioka (28 January 2007)

thidoan said:
			
		

> MOS looking good,
> 
> whats your opinion on a take over by COE?



I doubt if COE are in a position to "take over" MOS. There could be a possibility of a friendly merger. MOS does have a lot of assets which are under valued by the market. I wonder if the move by COE could trigger a move by some other enterprise to move on MOS. Santos or AOE could be a possibility. There are other groups with commercial interests in the area where MOS operates who would benefit from ownership of MOS's assets. 
I have held MOS for some time now despite it being one of my "dogs" because of it's assets and it's cash flow. Sooner or later it will come good or it will be an attractive take over target. Maybe now is the time.


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## Alien (29 January 2007)

There are a number of rumours that others are interested in MOS. If these are true we should see MOS start to move this week. Still support today at 16.5c.


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## nioka (1 February 2007)

The report from OSH today does not mention the gas pipeline from New Guinea. This must be good news for holders of MOS and AOE who both have a lot to gain if they can retain the gas sales to Queensland industry. Another step towards removing the "dog" tag from MOS.


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## Garpal Gumnut (2 February 2007)

nioka said:
			
		

> The report from OSH today does not mention the gas pipeline from New Guinea. This must be good news for holders of MOS and AOE who both have a lot to gain if they can retain the gas sales to Queensland industry. Another step towards removing the "dog" tag from MOS.




I agree nioka, as soon as I heard that the pipeline was finally a gonner I thought of MOS. It should benefit.   Garpal


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## Ken (2 February 2007)

do you the think the purchase by COE into MOS will be looked back in the not to distant future as the smart money taking place.

COE are an oiler, so you would think they would be buying into something like MOS for a reason, that the average investor wouldnt see.

COE would be buying for a reason i believe.


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## nioka (2 February 2007)

Ken said:
			
		

> do you the think the purchase by COE into MOS will be looked back in the not to distant future as the smart money taking place.
> 
> COE are an oiler, so you would think they would be buying into something like MOS for a reason, that the average investor wouldnt see.
> 
> COE would be buying for a reason i believe.



Without a doubt. I wish I knew the reason. Actually I'm starting to wonder what reason I had for buying in myself rather than wonder what reason they have. Their buying in does give me a glimmer of hope. In a few months time we will have hindsight and we will all be wiser.


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## Dutchy3 (11 March 2007)

I've been following the conversation around this one ....

The attached chart will need to reconcile soon as the trading moves into successively tighter ranges the breakout will be fast


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## Dutchy3 (11 March 2007)

Chart


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## ta2693 (23 May 2007)

The director of MOS increase his position. He bought 250,000 shares at 15.5c.
Does it mean something is going to happen soon or he takes it as a longterm investment?


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## surfingman (23 May 2007)

Its been put into his super fund, in regards to long term investment, not sure how old he is? but must see potential as a director.


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## Dutchy3 (23 May 2007)

Ive been watching this one for months ....if it sticks its head up I'll be in it. Looking very nice at the mo


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## Dutchy3 (28 May 2007)

I started buying today. Not actually broken out according to my analysis, however. My position is relatively small in anticipation of a solid move by the end of this week (or in a time frame not exceeding a month from now). I acted today because the chart is now indicating that the time has come to either put up or break below 15. More importantly todays volume indicates to me that this stock is moving into stronger hands ... chart later

As an aside the oliers are building again .....


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## Dutchy3 (28 May 2007)

Here's the chart ...

Note that this is a weekly as this is the time frame that looks like it makes sense to me. Today is Monday and yet the chart looks like it would not be out of place if it were weekly data ....

MD is not all that positive yet I am happy with the positions taken today ... looking for confirmation over the next month or so.


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## Dutchy3 (4 June 2007)

Broke to 18 - 19 this morning on heavy volume.

MD 4:1 - no apparent announcements, actually recent the news is not that good.

Anyone have any info .....?


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## 3 veiws of a secret (4 June 2007)

Huntley's have this stock as a spec BUY for some months now ,never took up their recommendation ,primarily by the fact its a spec stock. 
Some food for thought.............

"*Drilling of the long awaited Hurricane-2 well on the North West Shelf is set for June 2007. Partners are investigating the possibility of an oil leg down dip from Hurricane-1's 76m gross gas column. H2 has 40-50mmbl of recoverable oil potential worth 12-15cps net to MOS. The well is expected to take 20 days and supporting data indicates good potential for a hit. Several other targets also within the permit account for an additional combined unrisked potential of 220mmbo with MOS' share 13.2mmbo. Net contingent recoverable gas of 386BCF at Oil Search operated Kimu in PNG is also being considered for development."*


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## Dutchy3 (4 June 2007)

Hi 3 ... thank for this. Chart attached ... this is a weekly and only Mondays action represented thus far ... all the same I'm we pleased. 25 has been an issue since 2004 ... lets see how it fairs this time.


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## Dutchy3 (16 June 2007)

So far so good ... nice relative increase in volume too. This stock passing into stronger hands ... some good news about ... any so have any insights? Traded 30 -35 before so 100% + should be possible this time


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## Dutchy3 (10 July 2007)

The pause on this one has taken long enough ... nayone have any insight on the delay with hurricane 2?


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## Trader Paul (11 July 2007)

Dutchy3 said:


> The pause on this one has taken long enough ... nayone have any insight on the delay with hurricane 2?




Hi Dutchy,

MOS ..... Gann's astroanalysis suggests positive news may be coming
our way, around 24-25072007 ... 

happy trading

  paul



=====


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## Dutchy3 (11 July 2007)

Excellent excellent .... I'm holding LONG and holding up ... watching the oil price too and that looks like 70 might be behind it for now too ... ta


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## Dutchy3 (12 July 2007)

Hitting 19 today for the first time from the current correction ... goodie goodie.

Nice increase in volume associated


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## Dutchy3 (12 July 2007)

I've a fair % of my capital in this one ... bit too much in fact ... still reasonable volume response today and the price action encouraging ...


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## klt599 (22 August 2007)

any thoughts on the current situation with mossy?
when does the next drill start?
seems fairly good value at the current prices


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## nioka (22 August 2007)

klt599 said:


> any thoughts on the current situation with mossy?
> when does the next drill start?
> seems fairly good value at the current prices




I've spent the day doing my tax return. MOS is second only to VCR as disaster stocks for that financial year.  I think they are just hanging around waiting and hoping for a takeover offer.


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## nioka (29 August 2007)

I have had a rethink on MOS today in view of their latest report where they have lifted the EPS from 23c to 55c. This is a good result in my opinion. I've made a small reentry with 10,000 shares and will watch for further developments. I've been critical in the past based on their dismal SP although I could never understand the reason for it's poor performance there and I still don't. Todays bear market seemed a good time for a bull trader like me to get in.


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## bvbfan (29 August 2007)

Those figures are way to high for something trading at mid teens. I think it is probably 0.23c to 0.55c

P/E would be about 25 on those numbers


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## nioka (29 August 2007)

bvbfan said:


> Those figures are way to high for something trading at mid teens. I think it is probably 0.23c to 0.55c
> 
> P/E would be about 25 on those numbers




My mistake in quoting I left out the decimal point. Without the decimals it would have been a miracle and I would have sold everything I had to buy at today's price. A good result though and with the potential for further improvement this year I think they may finally be on the way. Thanks for the correction I hope I haven't misled anyone with the error.


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## tronic72 (6 December 2007)

Anyone currently holding MOS?

Am looking to buy. Huntley's updated their recent recommendation to a Speculative Buy. With the current oil prices and their current price at a 5 year low I can't see why any BIG reasons not to buy. (P/E Ratio is a bit scary)

Interested to see what some of the members think.


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## nioka (6 December 2007)

tronic72 said:


> Anyone currently holding MOS?
> 
> Am looking to buy. Huntley's updated their recent recommendation to a Speculative Buy. With the current oil prices and their current price at a 5 year low I can't see why any BIG reasons not to buy. (P/E Ratio is a bit scary)
> 
> Interested to see what some of the members think.



I've finally given up on MOS. Held them for over 2 years waiting for something to happen. I had expected them to be taken over before this but if someone hasn't wanted them by now then there must not be value there exceeding the current SP. I was happy with the PE ratio because they were improving and it is never good for a developing company. I thought they had prospects, and I still do, but the progress is too slow for me.


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## drmb (6 December 2007)

tronic72 said:


> Anyone currently holding MOS? Am looking to buy. Huntley's updated their recent recommendation to a Speculative Buy. With the current oil prices and their current price at a 5 year low I can't see why any BIG reasons not to buy. (P/E Ratio is a bit scary) Interested to see what some of the members think.




Was my dog stock for years and finally sold out to buy something with more reward, BMN. The only time it seems to spike is when there is talk of a take over but the suitors after due diligence seem to ffffade away. I thought it had prospects but gave up, there are far too many other candidates for my money with more encouraging things happening for them eg BMN

However, I think Oilsearch (?) had an interest for a while but seems to have gone quiet.

Good luck, it must come right one day (said the owner of inl)


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## tronic72 (6 December 2007)

drmb said:


> Was my dog stock for years and finally sold out to buy something with more reward, BMN. The only time it seems to spike is when there is talk of a take over but the suitors after due diligence seem to ffffade away. I thought it had prospects but gave up, there are far too many other candidates for my money with more encouraging things happening for them eg BMN
> 
> However, I think Oilsearch (?) had an interest for a while but seems to have gone quiet.
> 
> Good luck, it must come right one day (said the owner of inl)




Cheers, 

Thanks for your feedback. I tend to be one of those traders who looks for shares that have under performed. It seems MOS fits the ticket as they keep getting investors hopes up and then disappointing. 

*I have one more question. Why is the PE Ratio so High? It's 22.64 which is pretty high for me but I've noticed the energy sector has an average PE ration of 29.63. "Please explain" *

thanks again.


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## nioka (6 December 2007)

tronic72 said:


> Cheers,
> Why is the PE Ratio so High? It's 22.64 which is pretty high for me but I've noticed the energy sector has an average PE ration of 29.63. "Please explain" [/B]
> 
> thanks again.




Most energy stocks are explorers hoping to find that gusher and an added "gambling" increment is added to the price. In addition is the peak oil factor which should lead to future price increases.


----------



## Uncle Festivus (5 February 2008)

Is this the accumulation time after the capitulation time? More drilling to commence soon, cash of $17m. Basically at this price a play on exploration success as existing ops are still cash flow neg?


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## nioka (15 February 2008)

To me this is one of the coal seam gas producers that is being left out in the cold. QGL and AOE have been receiving plenty of publicity and have had good SP gains but MOS has been left behind. I would have thought it would have been a takeover target as it has substantial assets, plenty of good lease area and plenty of reserves. Am I looking at this through rose coloured glasses?. I exited once at 14c but bought back in recently because I decided "it's time".


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## Trader Paul (16 February 2008)

nioka said:


> To me this is one of the coal seam gas producers that is being left out in the cold. QGL and AOE have been receiving plenty of publicity and have had good SP gains but MOS has been left behind. I would have thought it would have been a takeover target as it has substantial assets, plenty of good lease area and plenty of reserves. Am I looking at this through rose coloured glasses?. I exited once at 14c but bought back in recently because I decided "it's time".




-----



Hi Nioka,

MOS ..... 3 positive time cycles in March 2008 should see 
this one rally off its lows ... 

          2902-03032008 ... positive spotlight on MOS

             21-24032008 ... 2 cycles and positive news expected

          3103-01042008 ... negative spotlight on MOS

             02-03042008 ... significant and positive cycle

                  08042008 ... negative news expected

                  15042008 ... negative cycle ... finance-related ... ???

                  23042008 ... minor and positive news expected

                  01052008 ... minor and positive focus on MOS

have a great weekend

      paul



=====


----------



## digajack (29 April 2008)

MOS broke thru resistance @ 0.12 and 0.125 today on good volumes. Could be a good day tommorrow if buyers maintain interest. Here's hoping


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## pointr (15 May 2008)

Mosaic appears to be doing good things with their current drilling programme in Queensland. They released an announcement this morning after an extended test of Waggambe4H which included the words"commmercially attractive" from memory. They have had 2 from 2 sucesses with this current programme with a lot still to drill. They have also had some upward movement in the SP. We are now just in the black after being in the red for a fair while.
Perhaps one to watch??


----------



## digajack (15 May 2008)

Yes, it appears by the volume...almost 5 million that the market like today's announcement....let's hope for another big day tommorrow and the sp could rally again.


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## kingbrown (16 May 2008)

Just jumped into this stock yesterday after watching it rally with the others plenty of upside broker talk for this one 

GO THE MOS !!!

It just featured in the Eureka report !


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## alankew (26 May 2008)

Plenty of big buys in this today,several for 100k shares,few for 200 and even a 300k buy.Right sector at the right time and price of oil booming.Oppies were a steal a week or so ago and even now woth a year to expiry plenty to happen before then


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## pointr (13 March 2009)

In reference to the above post-what a difference 9months can make. 
NOW. the SP has gone up today is this because the big number of MOSO options are close to worthless and therefore unlikely to dilute the current ordinary shares??
Does any one out in ASF forum land have any rumours about the departure of the MD or any other views on this company or one of the directors selling his shares this week. Not exactly a hot thread.


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## sjx (14 March 2009)

pointr said:


> In reference to the above post-what a difference 9months can make.
> NOW. the SP has gone up today is this because the big number of MOSO options are close to worthless and therefore unlikely to dilute the current ordinary shares??
> Does any one out in ASF forum land have any rumours about the departure of the MD or any other views on this company or one of the directors selling his shares this week. Not exactly a hot thread.




I believe the Directors sale of shares was worth 20k, but I also think thats all he had. Maybe he needed the dosh? Thats what I was thinking.


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## Garpal Gumnut (14 March 2009)

pointr said:


> In reference to the above post-what a difference 9months can make.
> NOW. the SP has gone up today is this because the big number of MOSO options are close to worthless and therefore unlikely to dilute the current ordinary shares??
> Does any one out in ASF forum land have any rumours about the departure of the MD or any other views on this company or one of the directors selling his shares this week. Not exactly a hot thread.




Click on "Competition" at the top of the page.

I bought some a few weeks ago. I think they'll be another CVN.

gg


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## sjx (15 March 2009)

Garpal Gumnut said:


> Click on "Competition" at the top of the page.
> 
> I bought some a few weeks ago. I think they'll be another CVN.
> 
> gg






Yeh I've been keeping a watchful eye on them for a while. I'm holding as well at the moment. Everything says 'yes!', if you ask me. I've wrote a little report to predict price movements, and to convince me of my investment at entry.. and so far am very happy. 

Recently did a pivot point analysis to predict Mondays price movement, just for the heck of it. Might see 0.105 according to the findings. I have been using fundamental and technical analysis. I think we'll see 0.120 by the end of April.. or maybe May. 

The company is debt free, and has cash, cash, cash! This cash can be used obviously to successful fund their expansion. I read the ABN-AMRO Morgans report the other day on Mosaic that was release late January, which provided some interesting insights.

The falling Aussie dollar will help Mosaic, but rising oil prices might drop what I initially thought earnings might be.

@gg: any thoughts on what we might see in the next 3-6 months.. or longer?


Regards,
sam


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## sjx (4 April 2009)

interesting trading on Friday.. buyers lining up by the looks of things.

something might be up. MOS is in a great position, no debt, cash on hand and a good reputation. Looks pretty good for MOS holders atm..

looking forward to next weeks activity


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## Garpal Gumnut (4 April 2009)

sjx said:


> interesting trading on Friday.. buyers lining up by the looks of things.
> 
> something might be up. MOS is in a great position, no debt, cash on hand and a good reputation. Looks pretty good for MOS holders atm..
> 
> looking forward to next weeks activity




agree,

I've been accumulating them for the past 2 months to add to long term holdings and have backed them in the competition as well.

gg


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## pointr (4 April 2009)

Yes it has been nice to see some signs of life, however we are still in the red. I'd like to know if their MD- Mr Lan Nguyen has any future plans in the industry as he announced his resignation from MOS about a month ago. Their plans for storage of CBM in depleted conventional reservoirs as well as their reserves, production and underutilized assetts may be of interest to others.


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## pointr (6 April 2009)

So today as I write up 22% on volume of 9.5million. Todays announcement was buying STO out of shared projects in the Surat Bowen Basin. Any further thoughts or rumours about on this company.


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## Hedders (12 May 2009)

I bought into Mosaic a few weeks ago. Since then, the share price has crept up marginally. Can someone shed any light on why this stock is not reaping much benefit from the recent increases in oil prices?


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## pointr (27 May 2009)

MOS released an announcement yesterday advising on progress in developing a depleted gas field into underground storage for gas from the Qld CSG projects as they 'ramp-up' production prior to LNG exports happening. MOS seems to be doing reasonable things, a current development well is held up by weather. Hopefully the share price will rise for us holders. I'd like to know if their ex MD has gone to another company??


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## pointr (27 May 2009)

As an addendum to my previous post MOS announced today sucess at Churchie 11 with 1.5-2MMscf/d from this development well, the first of the current programme.


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## Garpal Gumnut (27 May 2009)

pointr said:


> As an addendum to my previous post MOS announced today sucess at Churchie 11 with 1.5-2MMscf/d from this development well, the first of the current programme.




I have backed mos in each comp for the last three months and with my hardearned. I don't have a chart to post but it looks very promising. It has levelled recently and may break upwards again. Hopefully it will be another cvn.

gg


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## Hedders (27 May 2009)

Hope you're right gg- in theory it should be a cracker (unless the price of oil goes crashing again). Here's hoping it keeps rising


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## sjx (4 June 2009)

Still holding this one..

well over a 100% gain..

Satisfied so far.. and the stock shows no signs of slowing down. Thrilled with it's performance. I am expecting the trend to continue.


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## Hedders (16 July 2009)

What's happening with Mosaic? Is it retreating a little simply because of the oil prices or does anyone know of anything else? It made a tiny gain today but nothing sensational.


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## pointr (16 July 2009)

Perhaps it has just slipped back out of mind to many. Whatever fundamentals that were there a few months ago are still there. Perhaps the next thing to get the markets eye will be the 'business case' mentioned some months ago for converting a depleted gas field into a storage facility for the CSG industry as they ramp up production prior to LNG plants being built. The price of energy will also affect this one without doubt.


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## pointr (28 July 2009)

So MOS continues its drift down from 17.5 cents to 13 cents last time I looked, the volume during this decline has been lowish. MOS has had a 100% sucess rate from its 1st half 09 drilling programme, I wonder where its price would be if it had only found dust.


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## Hedders (29 July 2009)

pointr said:


> So MOS continues its drift down from 17.5 cents to 13 cents last time I looked, the volume during this decline has been lowish. MOS has had a 100% sucess rate from its 1st half 09 drilling programme, I wonder where its price would be if it had only found dust.




It does make you wonder! Maybe the exchange rate is taking some of the gloss off the news. Quarterly reports are due tomorrow I believe- here's hoping it's all good news. As an aside, I'd be interested to see what the chartists think of MOS at the moment


----------



## Hedders (21 August 2009)

Does anyone know what has happened to Mosaic? It's died in the butt despite no real bad news as far as I can see. Can anyone help me understand what's happening?


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## pointr (21 August 2009)

Hi Hedders, I don't think anything necessarily bad is happening. The share price has run out of puff. The traders gradually sell as they look for the next moving object to climb into. So if my view is right MOS will 'fluctuate' within a range until the next piece of really good or bad news causes a reaction. Not sure when its results will come out. Perhaps the next item to catch the attention of the market may be the 'putting foward of the business case' for converting a depleted field into a gas storage facility.


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## Hedders (21 August 2009)

Thanks for that, Pointr- sounds like we have to bide our time. The fundamentals of the company still look pretty good. Current share price is back to break even for me. I'm not sure when their reports are due, but it must be soon


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## Garpal Gumnut (21 August 2009)

If one goes back 7 or eight years MOS has been in a downtrend with lower lows and lower highs.

It looks decidedly sick , and I'd be only going long, if it broke above the downtrend line.

gg


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## Hedders (22 August 2009)

Thanks gg- that chart doesn't look pretty over that period of time. Do you read stochastics? I'm just learning this side of things, so I could be wrong, but does MOS look like it's about to swing up?


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## pointr (31 August 2009)

MOS released their results today which they described in an associated release as solid. Production was up by 18% (from memory) and profit comparible to last year if some extraordinary items were taken out, ( exploration costs and golden handshake). This result was achieved at a time when the price achieved for their oil dropped by 50%. So potential for some good fundamentals in the year ahead, recent 100%exploration sucess, rising prices for product, potential new income source from gas storage facility.


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## YOUNG_TRADER (31 August 2009)

lacking sex appeal from high impact exploration/wildcat stuff

but is building a solid business with good revenues


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## Hedders (31 August 2009)

Yes, the figures looked good considering what's happened to the prices of oil and gas. The market didn't exactly warm to the reports though! Down another 1/2 cent to 12 cents. Spoke to new CEO the other day- very decent bloke with an optimistic view of Mosaic's future. I'm hoping that the market treats MOS a little kinder than it has been though. I'm carrying a significant loss now. Surely it's due for some positive sentiment??


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## goin4gold (8 September 2009)

well hedders you may get your wish if it pushes through .14c to .15c..gone up to .13.5 currently ..some good ann back to back with new leases on storage facilities at brissy airport and of course the profit and operational wins. fingers xed am holding a parcel too


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## Hedders (8 September 2009)

goin4gold said:


> well hedders you may get your wish if it pushes through .14c to .15c..gone up to .13.5 currently ..some good ann back to back with new leases on storage facilities at brissy airport and of course the profit and operational wins. fingers xed am holding a parcel too




Yeah- fingers are crossed for sure. All their activities bode well for the future. The price may still hang around its current level until larger revenues start to come in and/or oil/gas start rising in price. Finally there seems to be more buyers than sellers too. I'm looking forward to seeing the next quarterly report- could be a good catalyst for the SP


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## goin4gold (9 September 2009)

Hedders said:


> Yeah- fingers are crossed for sure. All their activities bode well for the future. The price may still hang around its current level until larger revenues start to come in and/or oil/gas start rising in price. Finally there seems to be more buyers than sellers too. I'm looking forward to seeing the next quarterly report- could be a good catalyst for the SP




it's a wait and see nymex up over night ...looks like gold is pulling up oil at the mo...lets hope us$ stays weak and not the traditional safe haven it was through the crisis, this can only appeal to gold, oil and Aus$.


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## Hedders (17 September 2009)

Good volume for MOS today, and up another 0.5 cent to 14 cents. Seems to be more buyers at the moment. No significant announcement for nearly a fortnight though. Maybe it's because MOS was oversold recently- the SP doesn't seem to be tracking with commodity prices all that closely. It would be great to see MOS make a break now!


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## Garpal Gumnut (17 September 2009)

Hedders said:


> Good volume for MOS today, and up another 0.5 cent to 14 cents. Seems to be more buyers at the moment. No significant announcement for nearly a fortnight though. Maybe it's because MOS was oversold recently- the SP doesn't seem to be tracking with commodity prices all that closely. It would be great to see MOS make a break now!




Its an exciting stock. I've always accumulated under 8c and seen it lower, but its a goer.

Somebody knows somthing that nobody else knows and a fair bit of inside trading may be occurring not that that pack of useless dogsballs ASX or ASIC would know.

gg


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## Hedders (17 September 2009)

Garpal Gumnut said:


> Its an exciting stock. I've always accumulated under 8c and seen it lower, but its a goer.
> 
> Somebody knows somthing that nobody else knows and a fair bit of inside trading may be occurring not that that pack of useless dogsballs ASX or ASIC would know.
> 
> gg




You could be right there, gg- some punter bought 1,000,000 shares just before the bell (3:54pm). 10,600,000 shares traded in a day hasn't happened since April, and the average vol for the past 3 months is around 1,500,000. You'd be forgiven for thinking something might be announced in the morning


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## pointr (18 September 2009)

MOS has been making a few presentations of late as revealed in the ASX announcements. The one presented yesterday expanded the case for ramp-up gas storage at the Silver Springs field and also mentioned seeking a partner in this endeavor. My memory may not be correct but I think this is the first reference to this. I would think that an ideal partner would be someone either producing the gas or someone on the marketing side. I imagine both groups would want to look after their interests. MOS owes me a bit more than GG's 8 cents, so its welcome to take off any time it likes


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## 3 veiws of a secret (18 September 2009)

I have been watching the steady price rise its firm & to my liking . Have parked my money in the 13c slot ....wishful thinking. 
BTW Aspect Huntleys have been plugging this MOS for quiet awhile...... 14.5cents as I type! G'luck


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## Garpal Gumnut (18 September 2009)

3 veiws of a secret said:


> I have been watching the steady price rise its firm & to my liking . Have parked my money in the 13c slot ....wishful thinking.
> BTW Aspect Huntleys have been plugging this MOS for quiet awhile...... 14.5cents as I type! G'luck




the kiss of doom. An aspect huntley recommendation lol !!

I'll be buying it again soon under 8c

gg


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## Hedders (1 October 2009)

Well MOS is now in a trading halt. The only info I could find was a vague reference to some kind of capital raising. Does anyone know what they're raising capital for??


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## pointr (1 October 2009)

In one of their recent presentations they said they were looking for a commercial partner for their gas storage proposal, perhaps they have found one. Whatever they are doing I hope we make some $$'s from them and that GG's prediction re sub 8 cents doesn't eventuate.


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## banska bystrica (1 October 2009)

Capital raising via book build at 11.5c. I applied for 2 million today and was told there will be a heavy scale back as there is strong interest.


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## Hedders (1 October 2009)

pointr said:


> In one of their recent presentations they said they were looking for a commercial partner for their gas storage proposal, perhaps they have found one. Whatever they are doing I hope we make some $$'s from them and that GG's prediction re sub 8 cents doesn't eventuate.




Thanks pointr- I remember seeing this in a presentation from the new CEO. Here's hoping it's good news then. It must be something like that as I don't believe they have any debt issues.


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## Hedders (1 October 2009)

banska bystrica said:


> Capital raising via book build at 11.5c. I applied for 2 million today and was told there will be a heavy scale back as there is strong interest.





Where did you get the info from banska? Were you sent an application form already? Should be v.popular at 11.5 cents


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## Garpal Gumnut (1 October 2009)

pointr said:


> In one of their recent presentations they said they were looking for a commercial partner for their gas storage proposal, perhaps they have found one. Whatever they are doing I hope we make some $$'s from them and that GG's prediction re sub 8 cents doesn't eventuate.




Its a good company. Lets hope an offering to holders accompanies the bookbuild. I'd pay 8-12c at the moment for mosaic.

It may get to 8c again though when the bear hits again.

Its at the beginning of a wave 3 on EW.

gg


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## banska bystrica (1 October 2009)

Hedders said:


> Where did you get the info from banska? Were you sent an application form already? Should be v.popular at 11.5 cents




No application form. Just a phone call from my broker asking how many I wanted. When I said 1M, he said it was very likely to be heavily oversubscribed so apply for 2M just in case I get scaled back.


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## Hedders (1 October 2009)

Garpal Gumnut said:


> Its a good company. Lets hope an offering to holders accompanies the bookbuild. I'd pay 8-12c at the moment for mosaic.
> 
> It may get to 8c again though when the bear hits again.
> 
> ...




I'm no Elliott Wave expert GG, but are you saying that as MOS starts wave 3, we'll see a dip and then a decent SP increase?


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## Garpal Gumnut (3 October 2009)

Hedders said:


> I'm no Elliott Wave expert GG, but are you saying that as MOS starts wave 3, we'll see a dip and then a decent SP increase?




There may or not be a dip, but it looks as if its heading north in the medium to long term.

I include a chart showing EW on MOS in two time periods , recent action and over this past calender year.

gg


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## banska bystrica (3 October 2009)

The scale back was brutal. Out of 2M applied for, I received a firm allocation of 300,000. Massive over-subscription. Still, happy to have 300,000 at 11.5c. RBS Morgans short term target is 24c and fair valuation 32c.


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## Garpal Gumnut (3 October 2009)

banska bystrica said:


> The scale back was brutal. Out of 2M applied for, I received a firm allocation of 300,000. Massive over-subscription. Still, happy to have 300,000 at 11.5c. RBS Morgans short term target is 24c and fair valuation 32c.




I still reckon I'll get them again for 8c.

Thats nearly a 30% loss for you. Are you sure you really want them?

I'll take em off yer hands on tuesday to save you the worry mate.

gg


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## banska bystrica (3 October 2009)

Garpal Gumnut said:


> I still reckon I'll get them again for 8c.
> 
> Thats nearly a 30% loss for you. Are you sure you really want them?
> 
> ...




8c? That's ridiculous. You're dreaming. I'll be topping up on market if they are still under 15c. The institutional demand was ravenous at 11.5c. Hard to see how they will fall to 8c.


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## Garpal Gumnut (3 October 2009)

banska bystrica said:


> 8c? That's ridiculous. You're dreaming. I'll be topping up on market if they are still under 15c. The institutional demand was ravenous at 11.5c. Hard to see how they will fall to 8c.




Well we will just have to see.

Lets think about Brisconnect.

The instos piled into that big time. 

It may not go 8c next week, probably won't , but if it goes to 30c , I'm out with a huge profit.

Why should it keep on going up.

Why not up and down like most stocks?

gg


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## Hedders (4 October 2009)

banska bystrica said:


> The scale back was brutal. Out of 2M applied for, I received a firm allocation of 300,000. Massive over-subscription. Still, happy to have 300,000 at 11.5c. RBS Morgans short term target is 24c and fair valuation 32c.





Banska- was 300000 in line with your current holding or is it just proportionate to the level of interest in the subscription? In any case, I think you'll be laughing to have picked any up at 11.5c (unless the knackers fall off the oil price, and I can't see much beyond a temporary dip happening on that score really)


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## banska bystrica (5 October 2009)

Hedders said:


> Banska- was 300000 in line with your current holding or is it just proportionate to the level of interest in the subscription? In any case, I think you'll be laughing to have picked any up at 11.5c (unless the knackers fall off the oil price, and I can't see much beyond a temporary dip happening on that score really)




Hedders,
I wasn't an existing shareholder. My broker puts me in some of these insto/sophisticated investor placements and with this one, I am happy to hold for 20c+ rather than stag like I did with ELD.


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## Garpal Gumnut (5 October 2009)

banska bystrica said:


> 8c? That's ridiculous. You're dreaming. I'll be topping up on market if they are still under 15c. The institutional demand was ravenous at 11.5c. Hard to see how they will fall to 8c.






Garpal Gumnut said:


> Well we will just have to see.
> 
> Lets think about Brisconnect.
> 
> ...






Hedders said:


> Banska- was 300000 in line with your current holding or is it just proportionate to the level of interest in the subscription? In any case, I think you'll be laughing to have picked any up at 11.5c (unless the knackers fall off the oil price, and I can't see much beyond a temporary dip happening on that score really)






banska bystrica said:


> Hedders,
> I wasn't an existing shareholder. My broker puts me in some of these insto/sophisticated investor placements and with this one, I am happy to hold for 20c+ rather than stag like I did with ELD.




Well banksa mate, its on the way down, it fell by 7.1% today and if it keeps on going down at that rate I reckon I'll be picking up my parcel by next Wednesday or Thursday. 8c is fair value for Mosaic on the charts, unless the drillers know something we don't, and I don't think they do. They've offloaded a load at 11.5c. I can remember buying a load for a third of that a few years ago. Its working capital not a christmas present mate.

Then again EW may kick in and they'll go to 30c or more and you and me both will be happy.

I'm always sus about brokers putting anyone into anything.

gg

http://markets.smh.com.au/apps/qt/q...0F?code=mos&section=summary&submit=Go&submit=

gg


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## Garpal Gumnut (7 October 2009)

I've had a look at MOS charts in many time frames, and I feel that the monthly going back to 1991 shows its potential to significantly dip under the recent broker/ insto placement. 

I'm a holder and a long term trader of MOS, and genuinely believe it should never be bought at more that 0.085. 

Not that I'm wishing any bad for MOS as I'm still a holder of the last lot I bought in December of last year.

gg


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## banska bystrica (7 October 2009)

After today's trade I now hold 1M MOS, half of my targetted holding. Very comfortable buying at 13c and will keep accumulating whilst it trades at 13c.

Once the gas storage deal is finalised, the stock will spike and the historic chart will be about as useful as Kleenex.


----------



## Hedders (7 October 2009)

Garpal Gumnut said:


> I've had a look at MOS charts in many time frames, and I feel that the monthly going back to 1991 shows its potential to significantly dip under the recent broker/ insto placement.
> 
> I'm a holder and a long term trader of MOS, and genuinely believe it should never be bought at more that 0.085.
> 
> ...




I agree that this chart doesn't look pretty GG. Mind you I'm hoping that the recent decline was initially brought about by the dip in oil price followed by the 11.5c share offer (albeit a tiny offer to the average punter of $15K max parcel). Compared to its peers, which may not necessarily have balance sheets as attractive as MOS, Mosaic seems to have been treated a bit harshly by the market. Given what's happened to the oil price since Sept 08, I thought MOS's 09 result was pretty decent, but that looks like a minority view!


----------



## Garpal Gumnut (8 October 2009)

banska bystrica said:


> After today's trade I now hold 1M MOS, half of my targetted holding. Very comfortable buying at 13c and will keep accumulating whilst it trades at 13c.
> 
> Once the gas storage deal is finalised, the stock will spike and the historic chart will be about as useful as Kleenex.




banks mate, like you I do like to back winners and also like to diversify.

I am however at a loss to understand why you bought and are buying MOS now, rather than 11 months ago when it was near half the price.

What has changed in the interim, apart from a placement at 0.115c to make you so bullish on MOS?

gg


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## banska bystrica (8 October 2009)

Garpal Gumnut said:


> banks mate, like you I do like to back winners and also like to diversify.
> 
> I am however at a loss to understand why you bought and are buying MOS now, rather than 11 months ago when it was near half the price.
> 
> ...




No inclination to own MOS 12 months ago. You cannot be in all stocks. Diversification is a hedge for the ignorant.
The gas storage upside is what I like. Circa 20c-24c is my target price. I would then exit as this is not "ten bagger" potential and that's what I look for when holding long term.


----------



## Garpal Gumnut (8 October 2009)

banska bystrica said:


> No inclination to own MOS 12 months ago. You cannot be in all stocks. Diversification is a hedge for the ignorant.
> The gas storage upside is what I like. Circa 20c-24c is my target price. I would then exit as this is not "ten bagger" potential and that's what I look for when holding long term.




Thanks banksa, I never realised until I read your thread that I was ignorant. At least I know what I am now.

You are a fount of wisdom and as a person of your stature would realise shares only go up when you buy them.

I trust you got the next few million shares you said you'd buy at your buyin price of .13c, as MOS closed today at .125.

I have now learnt that diversification is for the ignorant. Thank god for ASF.

So where to from here banksa. I know you wouldn't dream of buying them at 0.08, so where will you buy the next million or so. At ,12, .115, .09 ?

I'd love to be a sophisticated investor like you. Are you born into it? Can you marry into it? Or are there exams you need to do. Or do you suddenly become sophisticated and get phoned by brokers to flog stock they can't sell to the instos.

gg


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## Hedders (8 October 2009)

I'm worried by what might be a "new trend" of mining companies calling a trading halt and then dressing up a grab for more cash in the interests of further development opportunities. FML followed suit today. As the market grew tired of every company under the sun raising capital to settle debt, maybe they've decided on this new pitch. I still don't quite understand the need to dilute shares if the company is going so well. I'm obviously missing the point of what's going on. I've noticed that their cash holdings have dropped a lot and that accounts payable has increased though.

After seeing MOS drop another half cent today however, it looks like the market is also uneasy about the share offer, even if it is supposedly for expanding exploration activities. We've seen 2 days of shares across the board going sky high, and the energy index was up 0.3% today, but MOS is still heading south. Until today I wasn't all that concerned. Heaven help it when this inevitable correction occurs!


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## pointr (8 October 2009)

Not sure where MOS price is going short term but hopefully long term up, those that get the 11.5 cents shares have a reason to sell at any price above that really, so plenty of potential sellers. In the meantime I can still sit here and enjoy classic posts like GG's last to put a smile on my face at bed time


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## Garpal Gumnut (9 October 2009)

banska bystrica said:


> Hedders,
> I wasn't an existing shareholder. My broker puts me in some of these insto/sophisticated investor placements and with this one, I am happy to hold for 20c+ rather than stag like I did with ELD.




Mate, you can sell them right now for 13c.

With your 3 or 4 million shares that will give you a profit of 45-60k.

Then I'm not as sophisticated as you and you probably have another plan

BTW , at what price would you place your sophisticated stop loss.

gg


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## banska bystrica (9 October 2009)

Garpal Gumnut said:


> Mate, you can sell them right now for 13c.
> 
> With your 3 or 4 million shares that will give you a profit of 45-60k.
> 
> Then I'm not as sophisticated as you and you probably have another plan




I don't want to sell my shares for 13c.
I do not own "3 or 4 million". Don't know what you're on about.

Requirements for sophisticated investor status:
Your accountant must certify the following:

"I certify that the following is true and correct in every particular:

I am a qualified accountant within the meaning of section 9 of the Corporation Law1. 
This certificate is given at the request of the investor described in Section 1 of this certificate ("Investor") in relation to potential offers by First of offers to subscribe for or acquire securities. 
This certificate is given to First for the purpose of section 708(8)(c) of the Corporations Law; and 
The Investor has:
(i)  Net assets of at least $2,500,000; or
(ii) A gross income for each of the last 2 financial years of at least $250,000 a year."

I'm sure you would qualify GG so just get your accountant to fill in the form and you're on your way. You get all the juicy deals the instos get at the same price the instos pay.

MOS: Target price 20c+ once the gas storage deal is finalised. Not interested in trading it. Just accumulate, hold for the deal and then exit. Simple.


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## Garpal Gumnut (9 October 2009)

That sounds like a plan banska.

Best of luck with it.

If it goes pearshaped, apart from a quick bath in the Hron, what is your stop loss level?

gg


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## Garpal Gumnut (18 October 2009)

As a chartist, I feel Mosaic looks destined to return to the 9c mark, unfortunately for the true believers.

Consolidation patterns and triangles have been validated as a good indicator of a share prices direction.

MOS is in a descending triangle.

Most volume has been through sellers and the price has now reached a support level. The last trading day on friday pushed it down to support on high volume.


The common wisdom is to subtract the gain from the low price to obtain a target.

15.5c - 12.5c = 3c

So the target is 9c.

I'll wait for a lower price from distressed buyers.

I will have to empty Dharmas shoulder bag of big bills as I feel now that I will soon get MOS again at under 8c.

A chart 

gg


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## Hedders (18 October 2009)

Garpal Gumnut said:


> As a chartist, I feel Mosaic looks destined to return to the 9c mark, unfortunately for the true believers.
> 
> Consolidation patterns and triangles have been validated as a good indicator of a share prices direction.
> 
> ...




Bummer! Well there goes any hope of them raising capital from the average punter who was offered shares at 11.5c, like myself.  I'd certainly buy more at 8 or 9 cents though- that's a hefty discount to the book value.


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## freebird54 (30 October 2009)

Closing date SPP 2/11 or 9/11? - confused -application form contradicts PDS
yes I am going for them............................


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## Garpal Gumnut (2 November 2009)

I enclose an interesting chart of MOS.

It shows its incredible rise from the March lows of this year of .065 up to 18c recently. Its decline has been just as dramatic. 

A fibonnaci retracement from the lows to highs shows an initial 50% retracement in September and then a recovery to 23.8% and now a further fall to a 61% retracement at 11c, recovering to close at 11.5c today. 

Who knows what will happen.

I am hoping for a panic sell down on high volume and will have a buy in at 8.5c to pick up a considerable stake.

Its interesting to note how often 11c has been support and resistance, so a recovery may be about to happen.

They are my thoughts anyway.

gg


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## Hedders (2 November 2009)

MOS has been hovering around the share price offer for a while- I think it will continue to do so until the offer is all wrapped up. Providing the oil price trends up I think MOS will also go up from there. From what I understand a big chunk of the capital raised will go into quite a few new drilling projects. If we see a series of positive drilling results I imagine the SP will rise as it did after the last series of drilling reports. 

This is only my opinion of course (I bought in today again at 11.5c). Unless another global correction occurs before year's end, I'm thinking MOS will be back above 15c in a month or so (hope I'm not eating my words down the track!)


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## Kremmen (3 November 2009)

I'm amazed this mob is still going. Small miners usually either become big miners, collapse, or get taken over. I played the Mosaic game over a decade ago.

Here's my take on it: MOS has traded in the same band for the past 20 years. For those who follow fundamentals, well, BHP over 20 years = 1200% rise plus dividends, MOS = 0%. For the chartists, surely your odds are better if you play a stock that actually rises, as everyone wins on average. I don't understand why anyone bothers with MOS at all any more.


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## chatty (5 November 2009)

When most o the stocks are over valued. The big money may start to look or something cheap like MOS??

This is an assumption only. Btw, I do not have MOS but have just added this stock in my watch list today.

If the company's financial situation is improving, oil price continues to go up while share price has not gone anywhere. Isn't it a good time to keep an eye on this and look for the right time for an entry?


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## Hedders (27 November 2009)

Well, it looks like I WILL be eating my words- 15c is looking highly unlikely, as Mosaic continues to drift downwards. This stock has become so limp which is a real shame. GG might be right with his prediction of 8c at this rate. The sooner they start drilling in a big way the better. Does anyone know why MOS can't take a trick just now? I guess a lot of the other oil stocks are fairing no better (eg Canarvon)


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## gohawks (14 December 2009)

Garpal Gumnut said:


> I enclose an interesting chart of MOS.
> 
> It shows its incredible rise from the March lows of this year of .065 up to 18c recently. Its decline has been just as dramatic.
> 
> ...





Looking like a pretty good call at the moment.  You ready to buy after the new year? I'm getting tempted at the current pricing.


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## Hedders (14 December 2009)

Yes- surely MOS can't fall that much lower, although with sellers outstripping buyers 5:1, who knows? You can't help thinking the current price will look dirt cheap down the track. But anyone who's held MOS for a long time will have heard all this before! I have greater faith in Alex Parks than in his predecessor though. Are you licking your chops gg??


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## Wysiwyg (14 December 2009)

Kremmen said:


> I'm amazed this mob is still going. Small miners usually either become big miners, collapse, or get taken over. I played the Mosaic game over a decade ago.
> 
> Here's my take on it: MOS has traded in the same band for the past 20 years. For those who follow fundamentals, well, BHP over 20 years = 1200% rise plus dividends, MOS = 0%. For the chartists, surely your odds are better if you play a stock that actually rises, as everyone wins on average. I don't understand why anyone bothers with MOS at all any more.



My experience with MOS doesn't go back that far, only 3 years ago but still the same. It's like an ingrained culture. No matter what language you explain this to people they just don't comprehend or eventually find this out for themselves. At least one could say their share price is reasonably stable.


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## Garpal Gumnut (14 December 2009)

gohawks said:


> Looking like a pretty good call at the moment.  You ready to buy after the new year? I'm getting tempted at the current pricing.







Hedders said:


> Yes- surely MOS can't fall that much lower, although with sellers outstripping buyers 5:1, who knows? You can't help thinking the current price will look dirt cheap down the track. But anyone who's held MOS for a long time will have heard all this before! I have greater faith in Alex Parks than in his predecessor though. Are you licking your chops gg??





Greed and fear, doesn't it get one excited. Buy and it goes down, remorse. Miss and it goes up, pain. We are at a crux.

I had thought about getting in a 8.5 or 8. But a low of 5c is possible.

gg


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## Hedders (19 February 2010)

A couple of months have gone by since the last MOS post, and here we are- MOS still can't get any positive movement going. Nobody wants a bar of them despite a bit of a recovery in oil prices, and some okay news reported on the ASX. Where to now GG? I bought in at 8.7 cents today, but I'm beginning to fear that they could slip even lower...


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## Happy (19 February 2010)

May 2008 high was 0.195,  October 2008 low was 0.065

June 2009 high was 0.0.18,  (if November 2010 brings 0.045 low, it will only be kind of similar move)

Buying on a way down has its dangers.
It has rewards too, but can affect sleep at night that’s for sure.


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## tunrida (19 February 2010)

Hedders said:


> A couple of months have gone by since the last MOS post, and here we are- MOS still can't get any positive movement going. Nobody wants a bar of them despite a bit of a recovery in oil prices, and some okay news reported on the ASX. Where to now GG? I bought in at 8.7 cents today, but I'm beginning to fear that they could slip even lower...




call me when they show indications of serious earnings growth - this share has been floundering in the positive earnings, but no divvy prospects for years - another one that only the execs get any benefit from by way of the packages they write for themselves


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## pointr (1 July 2010)

An announcement today that AGL Energy (AGK) approached MOS after market close yesterday with an offer to buy the company at $0.15 a share. Advice from MOS is to do nothing as per usual. a nice resultant price jump this morning. At least 15 cents would just get us out in front


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## Garpal Gumnut (5 July 2010)

pointr said:


> An announcement today that AGL Energy (AGK) approached MOS after market close yesterday with an offer to buy the company at $0.15 a share. Advice from MOS is to do nothing as per usual. a nice resultant price jump this morning. At least 15 cents would just get us out in front




I hold two x  MOS. I'm expecting a counter bid, so will hold on atm. It has jumped to .13/.135 but there are some strong buyers at .13 , so I expect this to be a floor atm. 

gg


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## Ajax (5 July 2010)

There is an article by The Ferret on SMH online (out at midday today and proabably in hardcopy tomorrow) on AGL Energy's non-binding bid at 15c for Mosaic Oil.

http://news.smh.com.au/breaking-news-business/around-the-traps-with-the-ferret-20100705-zwj2.html

The Ferret seems to be suggesting there may be another bidder/bidders about to enter the fray..."a chorus comprising Shell/Arrow and Santos".


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## pointr (7 July 2010)

I hope 'The Ferret'  and GG are right about a second suitor. Would this possible and so far silent second buyer need to speak up before the 14th July date that is included in AGK's offer.????


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## pointr (13 July 2010)

So does a higher intra-day high and buyers waiting at 13.5cents on a much higher daily volume mean anything regarding the acceptance of the offer from AGK or the possible activity of an invisible and so far silent second suitor???


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## pointr (14 July 2010)

MOS now in a trading halt until market open on Friday or when announcement re AGK offer made.??? Also note Peter Garret has halted approval for Qld LNG for 3/12 to assess environmental imapct. Concerns here?? or just preelection posturing to boost green credentials?


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## sval62 (14 August 2010)

G,day,
       Could anybody tell me what the latest news is about MOS,I ask 
because it seems to trading @14.5 to 15.0 cents and not going anywhere.


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## pointr (14 August 2010)

The board accepted AGK's offer for the company at $0.15 cents share a few weeks ago. There was one little escape caveat in case a higher offer occurred.


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## Dome (21 September 2010)

*Deutsche Bank* have recently been snapping up Mosaic shares. Would this be to gain more voting power or perhaps expecting another offer? One would have thought if there were to be another offer on the table it would have happened?


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