# ALD - Ampol Limited



## GreatPig (2 September 2005)

Up about 6% this morning.

A little unusual for a stock that price.

Cheers,
GP

[I hold]


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## Smurf1976 (2 September 2005)

*Re: CTX - Caltex*

With the US situation the world no longer has sufficient operating refineries to meet demand for petroleum products.

Yes, there is adequate crude from strategic reserves etc. But there simply is not enough operational refining capacity with so many idle refineries following the storm.

So either the world is about to cut fuel use, literally right now, or prices are going up until we do cut. There's just no way around it unless / until the refineries are back up and running. This could take quite a while. CTX is in the refining business so will be making $$$.


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## slimtrader (3 January 2006)

*CTX*

Any views on why CTX keeps falling even though oil the price has stabilised? This may be an opportunity to go short?


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## Richard Willoughby (4 January 2006)

*Re: CTX - Caltex*

my opinion....
ctx is overpriced, the last two years with crude price increases the inventory gains ctx reports as profit is only on paper and if crude falls it becomes a loss. i think last june report inventory gain was 80 million, this is because ctx have a massive supply of crude on hand and each report this is costed at the current price versus what it actually cost them. also last year they had a tax gain of approx 80million this year(june 05) they gained 20 million these were both one off gains. not trying to start an agrument i used to hold. i don't think ctx can ever pay a div that reflects the current sp. i could be wrong .
actually i'm trying to get my posts % up so i can enter the tipping competition. good luck


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## RichKid (4 January 2006)

*Re: CTX - Caltex*

A chart showing the breach of the recent supporting trend line. One Monster uptrend in the long term chart though.


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## slimtrader (4 January 2006)

*Re: CTX - Caltex*

Richkid,

Thanks for the graph. Does this mean we could possibly see retracement to $17?


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## eMark (7 February 2006)

Good evening!

I'm new to the forum. 

I would like someones opinion on Caltex as of this week. What is happening? It's down to $17.80 from high $19's only a week ago.

I've just stumbled across this forum, and noticed the graph supplied and the last couple of posts re Caltex.

Interesting.

Cheers

eMark


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## crackaton (7 February 2006)

CTX is one of the most hyped stocks on the asx. I bought 5 years ago at 1.42$ when they were in trouble, then they did the fuel deal thing with woolies etc. I'm not really concerned what they do cause I can sell out any time and they make a divi.

They are still crooked as like all oil companies.


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## Smurf1976 (7 February 2006)

crackaton said:
			
		

> They are still crooked as like all oil companies.



Strong words there. Anything to substantiate the claim? Are you suggesting that CTX acts dishonestly in some way or are you simply upset about petrol prices? 

I can think of other industries where ordinary consumers are being ripped off on a scale far larger than their total expenditure on petrol in the first place so whatever any oil company may or may not be doing is a long way down the list IMO. And oil refining has been far less profitable than many other industries over the long term on a profit per $ of sales basis.


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## GreatPig (9 June 2006)

A possible inverse head and shoulders here.

If it keeps looking up next week, I might jump back in on this one.

Cheers,
GP


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## RichKid (9 June 2006)

GreatPig said:
			
		

> A possible inverse head and shoulders here.
> 
> If it keeps looking up next week, I might jump back in on this one.
> 
> ...




Well spotted GP, I wonder if this is a wave B of an ABC correction on the weeklies? If not we're going straight up from the looks of it, approaching previous selling levels though.


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## GreatPig (17 June 2006)

Still pushing up strongly, and I'm back on it. H&S target around $23 to $24.

Bought Friday for $21.38.

Just in time for a Monday bloodbath probably... 

GP


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## michael_selway (18 June 2006)

GreatPig said:
			
		

> A possible inverse head and shoulders here.
> 
> If it keeps looking up next week, I might jump back in on this one.
> 
> ...




yeah was wondering why the rise in recent times

CTX - Earnings and Dividends Forecast (cents per share) 
2005 2006 2007 2008 
EPS 220.2 144.9 168.4 169.1 
DPS 46.0 82.0 102.5 104.0 

EPS(c) PE Growth 
Year Ending 30-12-06 144.9 15.0 -34.2% 
Year Ending 30-12-07 168.4 12.9 16.2% 

looks like it will have good franked dividend yield as time goes by, maybe less capex and aquisitions

thx

MS


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## GreatPig (29 June 2006)

Continuing to push up nicely. Now into blue sky territory.

Cheers,
GP


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## michael_selway (29 June 2006)

GreatPig said:
			
		

> Continuing to push up nicely. Now into blue sky territory.
> 
> Cheers,
> GP





yep thanks, do u think it can be sustained?

thx

MS

Earnings and Dividends Forecast (cents per share) 
2005 2006 2007 2008 
EPS 220.2 148.7 175.7 169.1 
DPS 46.0 82.0 104.3 104.0

EPS(c) PE Growth 
Year Ending 30-12-06 148.7 15.2 -32.5% 
Year Ending 30-12-07 175.7 12.8 18.2%


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## GreatPig (29 June 2006)

michael_selway said:
			
		

> do u think it can be sustained?



From a fundamental point of view, I have no idea.

From a technical point of view, my target from the inverse head and shoulders is in the $23 to $24 range, but I'll just continue to hold it as long as it keeps going up.

It was a pretty broad H&S, over some months, so I think that's promising for the upside.

GP


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## clayton4115 (15 July 2006)

do you think it will hit $30 by the end of the year? is it good buying at these levels?


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## GreatPig (15 July 2006)

From a TA point of view (mine in particular), the head and shoulders target of around $24 has already been met, and it's currently undergoing some consolidation. To me, this looks like it might be a small bearish triangle, so I'll be keeping a close eye on the price action next week for a possible sale.

I have no idea if or when it will reach $30.

Cheers,
GP


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## GreatPig (14 August 2006)

Volatility building up after its recent sideways movements. Currently down around $23.80. Seems like it's about to move out one way or another.

Personally I'm thinking down again, as most of the volume these last few days has been on the down days.

Cheers,
GP


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## clayton4115 (14 August 2006)

i wonder why its down so much today,

maybe because of the LPG gas announcement from the govt?


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## michael_selway (14 August 2006)

clayton4115 said:
			
		

> i wonder why its down so much today,
> 
> maybe because of the LPG gas announcement from the govt?




Maybe this:

Caltex Australia Ltd., the nation's biggest oil refiner, slumped A$1.18, or 4.8 percent, to A$23.52. The company's rival BP Plc, (BP LN), which has about 17 percent of the nation's retail market by volume, joined with Citibank, a Citigroup Inc. unit, to offer Australian motorists a discount on purchases at BP service stations in Australia.

thx

MS

http://www.smh.com.au/news/BUSINESS...eal-credit-card/2006/08/13/1155407662555.html


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## 3 veiws of a secret (13 November 2006)

Great Pig ........Do you still hold Caltex ?-bought in @$21.25 in late day trading. 
I was eager to have at least one share connected to the oil sector,the sole listed refinery  seems a medium risk compared to speculative exploration oil stocks.Any thoughts appreciated.


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## Dutchy3 (11 March 2007)

For current holders ... a move through 2600 should now be reasonably expected


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## Dutchy3 (12 March 2007)

Seemed to be confirmed today


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## CanOz (14 April 2007)

Anyone use weekly pivots on daily charts to look for reversals? Just wondering if if got the jist of it?


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## vishalt (29 June 2007)

Caltex under some heavy selling at the moment, and the profit outlook wasn't even that bad.

Wiped off by $5, at some key support levels now, this sell-off was way overdone in my opinion, perhaps a buying opportunity?


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## mime (20 July 2007)

Does anyone know if they lease the land which their service stations are on or do they own it? I recently bought this stock because I think it will rise back to it's heights.


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## mime (28 July 2007)

Does anyone know the effects of the high AUS dollar on this stock? They import crude and refine it so it should be positive.


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## mime (28 July 2007)

Come on. Surely someone has invested in this stock after it's massive tumble or a least has an opinion.


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## wayneL (28 July 2007)

Mime,

fwiw. All of the US oilers are being sold off as well in the face of rising oil prices. I'm struggling to find out why, but one commentator reckons the funds want CASH.

Not much info coming out though.


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## Gurgler (28 July 2007)

Well, at least one stocks commentator is recommending Caltex as a valued buy after the past week. Check out Aitken's comments in the attached Wordpad document, a copy from Eureka report released Friday 27th July.

The title is Charlie Aitkin's First XI (i.e. eleven stocks chosen from the S&P 100, that he feels are worthy of buying in these times of lowered prices). 
Warning - it's couched in cricket jargon, so if you're not conversant with cricket, you might need to bone up on that first!

In the light of WayneL's remarks, I wonder whether the fear for oilers is well-founded. Anyone have any supportive evidence? I ask because like Mime, I was interested in getting into it for the longterm.


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## Kauri (19 October 2007)

Caltex caught my attention today, good volume, a solid bounce from the 50% fib and slightly better than average close. On wtach to see if it can go on with it.
 Cheers
.........Kauri


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## Smurf1976 (19 October 2007)

Kauri said:


> Caltex caught my attention today, good volume, a solid bounce from the 50% fib and slightly better than average close. On wtach to see if it can go on with it.
> Cheers
> .........Kauri



From a more fundamental perspective, CTX has held up amazingly well in the face of the outright crash in refining margins. It's hard to see the refining business getting much worse than it already has at least in the near term - only way is up?


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## blinkau (23 October 2007)

I have jumped onto this one and purchased a small parcel. Huntley's last report was recommending it a buy around the $23 level. Hopefully this should turn into a good 7+ year stock.


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## michael_selway (23 October 2007)

blinkau said:


> I have jumped onto this one and purchased a small parcel. Huntley's last report was recommending it a buy around the $23 level. Hopefully this should turn into a good 7+ year stock.




CTX loosk liek s steady stock from here on in

*Earnings and Dividends Forecast (cents per share) 
2006 2007 2008 2009 
EPS 172.6 185.0 172.7 176.2 
DPS 80.0 93.8 93.0 99.2 *

thx

MS


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## blinkau (25 October 2007)

How much more does everyone think this stock will fall? My next guess of support would be around $20.75? It seems to be edging down slightly every day over the past few days


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## blaze87 (2 November 2007)

This is the FREE but incomplete information from FATS.....
would love it if any1 here acutally subscribes to FATS can fill us in..

Caltex's (CTX) stock price declined sharply in June following the release of earnings guidance that fell short of the market's lofty expectations, in part due to the strengthening Aussie dollar. This week we look at the result and consider the likely impact of continued Aussie dollar strength on the company's future results.

For the six months to 30 June 2007, the company generated a net replacement cost of sales operating profit (RCOP) of $255 million, matching the six months to 31 December 2006. This replacement cost measure adjusts for the impact of fluctuating crude oil prices, thereby affording a more accurate appraisal of management's performance.


Caltex is comprised of two core divisions, Refining and Marketing. Marketing promotes and sells Caltex products through a network of around 2000 service stations and accounts for around 40 percent of gross earnings. 

Although sales volumes increased to 6.7 billion litres from 6.5 billion in the same period last year, increased competition weighed on the division's profitability.

Meanwhile, the larger Refining division, which we will focus on in today's article, purchases crude oil and converts it at the company's two refineries into petrol, diesel, jet fuel and other speciality products.

During the period, Caltex's refineries produced 5.4 billion litres of various fuels. The result fell short of the 5.6 billion litres produced in the prior six months due to planned maintenance shutdowns. For the full year to 31 December 2007 however, the refineries are on target to expand production by 7.8 percent to 11 billion litres. 


The extent to which production flows through to earnings is largely determined by the refiner margin. The refiner margin is the difference between the cost of importing a barrel of crude oil and the cost of importing the barrel's equivalent of refined product. 

As the chart below shows, while the refiner margin exhibits considerable volatility, the 2004 - 2006 average (as shown by the red lines) has been rising. Although, the margin appears to have stabilised so far in 2007 


Source: Caltex
During the six months to 30 June, the refiner margin averaged US$10.74 per barrel, compared to US$9.76 in the same period last year. 

However, the margin is quoted in US dollars. As a result, the deteriorating US dollar reduces the benefits of an expanding margin to the Refining division's Australian dollar denominated earnings.

In fact, Caltex estimates that the stronger Aussie dollar negatively impacted the Refining division's contribution to group earnings by $30 million for the period. Given our expectation of continued US dollar weakness, should we be concerned over Caltex's future profitability?

This story continues in the Fat Prophets Members area. To get the complete report, along with our current recommendation, join Fat Prophets today!


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## vishalt (6 November 2007)

This stock is taking a total beating, so what if the $A is strengthening? 

By Buffets principals of buying fundamentally & visibly good businesses at low prices Caltex looks like a diamond in the rough, its still keeping its chunky dividends up and imo high fuel prices will eventually overcome the costs. 

If I was a long term investor I'd buy it!


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## mime (6 November 2007)

I bought at around $24.5 and am feeling the sting. It seemed like a no brainer because the high dollar would increase profits jump profits and the inelastic revenue source. I guess I was wrong. I did see a report about the ACCC potentially taking the discount scheme away from them because it maybe anti  completive so the fear of that maybe weighing on the share price.


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## vishalt (6 November 2007)

Well looking at the longterm chart, Caltex would have given $21 for every $1 you had since 2003, which is a stellar return, I think its just fallen out of favor of institutions for a bit now like Santos did, a few good pieces of news and defintely in the long run I'd think that Caltex would be a worthy asset.


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## michael_selway (6 November 2007)

vishalt said:


> Well looking at the longterm chart, Caltex would have given $21 for every $1 you had since 2003, which is a stellar return, I think its just fallen out of favor of institutions for a bit now like Santos did, a few good pieces of news and defintely in the long run I'd think that Caltex would be a worthy asset.




Hi looks like CTX will be quite steady for a while

*Earnings and Dividends Forecast (cents per share) 
2006 2007 2008 2009 
EPS 172.6 181.2 166.7 171.5 
DPS 80.0 91.8 89.7 98.0 *

thx

MS


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## blaze87 (6 November 2007)

i bought on 24.06 . it was on a uptread back then...
anyways... hopefully the end of year annual report will wake all those smart money into CTX.....
i seemed to remember buffet's timeframe was 3 years..
its only been 2 months for me....


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## blaze87 (13 November 2007)

when looking at a company such as caltex,
shl we look at the traditional measurement net profit on its balance sheet
or
shl we look at what the company measurement of its true value of net profit(RCOP)..

it says that This replacement cost(RCOP) measure adjusts for the impact of fluctuating crude oil prices, thereby affording a more accurate appraisal of management's performance and that the inclusion of the impact of exchange rate movements on the calculation of the inventory gain or loss does not change the company’s historical, or statutory, profit after tax. Further, there is no impact on the company’s cashflows as a result of the change.

it's strange for caltex... if u look at the earnings guidance(using the traditional/historical net profit) for the remaining of the year, it represents earnings growth of 18%-28%. the previous company 1 yr earnings growth was 12.7%

however if u look at the RCOP- which the company it represents only 4% to 16%.  the previous company rcop earnings growth was 3%

which is a more accurate picture of the company? arGHHHH..


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## blinkau (13 November 2007)

Will be interesting to see where Caltex goes from here but most brokers seem to have a recommendation of $30 on it. Might be time to buy in under $20 but then again I thought that when it was $23


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## blinkau (14 November 2007)

Huntleys also has a target of around $30 on CTX

These are the only two iv seen, what are most other brokers recommending?


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## vishalt (15 November 2007)

Wow? 

What is going on with Chevrontexaco Caltex!?

This is the lesson: NEVER short a stock with good fundamentals because it will bite you in the ass!


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## J.C. (23 December 2007)

Caltex down to about $18 now, anyone else thinking of entering in, now or soon? Looks promising after the enquiry results, i believe they were positive?


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## DowJones (24 December 2007)

I bought some CTX shares at mid 18's. It had a RSI that looked like the stock was due for some sort of bounce. It finished at 19.45 for the day.

The targets from the brokers are decent on the stock with most tagging Caltex as a BUY, despite the minor profit outlook downgrade.


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## vishalt (26 December 2007)

Brokers gave Caltex a buy? Wow, I wonder what they were thinking when the stock took off from $1 D:!

Caltex peaked at a 1600% return since 02 but its like bouncing around crazy lately, but I think it's a great long-term story - trusted brand, 50% owned by Chevron and the pop is only 21 million at the moment so with all the areas to come up in the future, they'll need more pumps! No brainer of a stock but its crazy volatile at the moment.


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## DowJones (26 December 2007)

The current Ageis view:

Recommendation: BUY 12m Target: $23.00 

However a strong USD and higher oil prices work against CTX.

Im looking for a little more price action, then selling it off.


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## blinkau (5 March 2008)

Anyone else been hanging onto CTX? I should really have taken more notice on the downward trend on this its killing me! 

Does anyone know why it is so low today at $12?


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## grace (5 March 2008)

blinkau said:


> Anyone else been hanging onto CTX? I should really have taken more notice on the downward trend on this its killing me!
> 
> Does anyone know why it is so low today at $12?




I'm holding this too.  I see a lot of brokers have buys on this....well with the weakness in share price.  This is a good company IMO...just being hurt by the strong AUS$.  

As soon as I sell it will go up.....


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## AnDy62 (6 March 2008)

Grace- You are right, a lot of brokers like this stock. It's refiner margins have been damaged by the interrelated issues of a high $A and the US's poor economy. I feel this is one to watch and would be a great buy if there are signs all is going back 'to normal'. Good luck with your holdings


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## Muschu (7 April 2008)

I have also noticed many buyer recommendations for the stock.  I am a novice but the history of CTX would suggest that it is worthy of inclusion in a long-term portfolio.  The international need for oil, including in China and India, will surely only increase? {if I'm wrong please tell me - I often am}.  And repacement fues, if they evovle on a large scale, seem eons away.  The current SP also seems attractive.
Your view, especially as a longer-term hold, would be appreciated.
Rick


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## kyme (7 April 2008)

I am an oil bull, think long term price only going one way. Does Caltex have any production assetts or only a oil refiner/retailer?. Without any production assetts a rising oil price would be only negative or at best neutral to Caltex share profitability.


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## Muschu (7 April 2008)

kyme said:


> I am an oil bull, think long term price only going one way. Does Caltex have any production assetts or only a oil refiner/retailer?. Without any production assetts a rising oil price would be only negative or at best neutral to Caltex share profitability.




I get your point [I think] -- but what would explain the consistency of view in buy recommendations?
I've never looked, but is there any correlation between the SP of companies such as CTX and WPL?


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## kyme (7 April 2008)

Muschu, haven't researched Caltex as to whether a buy or not, just pointing out increasing oil price not necessarily an advantage to company as its an increase in costs to refiners/retailers that they have to try and pass on. In current political climate think pressure will be on Caltex not to increase its profit margin on fuel sales. Presumably reports recommending Caltex as a buy explain on what basis, increase in dividend, market share or whatever. 
I wouldn't think comparing producers eg WPL to retailers not appropriate, consider that applies to any commodity not just energy.
I invest for long term only, my favourites in energy sector at moment, NXS, OEL, EXR.
Caltex seems to me more interest to people looking for regular dividends rather than those expecting large capital gains from future oil price.


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## Sean K (8 April 2008)

Chart view FWIW, non log.

May have found a bottom, with a higher low and high. 

Red lines resistance.

Green circles possible breakout points.


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## bigdog (8 April 2008)

For some reason the market does not like Caltex today!!!!!!!!!

CTX   $14.08    -$0.79  -5.31% high of   $15.29 & low of  $14.02  traded 946,016 shares  $13,802,087 @ 08-Apr 12:26:22


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## nick2fish (8 April 2008)

Oh well they'll leave their cosy broker office get in their car, look at the fuel gauge and say ****... better juice up.


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## Muschu (9 April 2008)

_


kennas said:



			Chart view FWIW, non log.

May have found a bottom, with a higher low and high. 

Red lines resistance.

Green circles possible breakout points.
		
Click to expand...


_
Thanks kennas and Kymne. I don't know how to interpret a chart. Do the comments above [which I went to a glossary about] suggest that we may be near a buy time but that growth expectations are only modest and that the short-term rewards are more likely to be in the dividends?
And may I ask what FWIW means please?
Thanks.  I'm working with chart-knowledge that can only go in one direction...
Cheers
Rick


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## Sean K (9 April 2008)

Muschu said:


> Thanks kennas and Kymne. I don't know how to interpret a chart. Do the comments above [which I went to a glossary about] suggest that we may be near a buy time but that growth expectations are only modest and that the short-term rewards are more likely to be in the dividends?
> And may I ask what FWIW means please?
> Thanks.  I'm working with chart-knowledge that can only go in one direction...
> Cheers
> Rick



Support and resitance are points on the chart where a stock stops at, or bounces off. This can occur both horizontally and diagonally on a chart. On the way down, better support is where the stock has found previous resistance on the way up; and on the way up, more resistance is where there was previous support on the way down. When a stock breaks resistance on the way up, this is a good thing, breaking support poor. Stocks will only generally be considered going 'up' if they are making higher lows and highs in the chart. However, there can be short, mid and long term perspectives on this, of course. From the chart commented on previously, there is resistance at 16 and lots more between 19 and 21. Until these are broken, the stock is at risk of trading sideways. As a long term investor in blue chips, you would be less concerned with the shorter term aspects of price movement. However, my personal approach is to keep in something that is at least mid term up, or the money is better in the bank earning interest. In regard to CTX, it is back to where is was in May 05, so it's definately not trending long term up IMO. Mid term it's way down, and will be short term up when it makes some higher highs and lows and breaks those resistance lines. All the best, kennas


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## gfresh (9 April 2008)

I looked a bit at Caltex due to it's attractive P/E and dividend.. however I cannot see it rising strongly due to a few concerns.

The main concern with Caltex I have read in a couple of reports, is that the profit margins for Caltex (and other refiners) is gradually shrinking. While the price of oil is going up, they pay for their oil in $AUD, so the USD/AUD eats into that right now. It's also hard to ratchet up petrol prices equally with oil price rises due to consumer concern, and probably Government pressure. 

Strong competition from Asian refineries is making it more difficult for local refineries to compete effectively, which also doesn't help. 

With Caltex, apparently it's refinery equipment is starting to get quite old, and will require high expenditure in the near future to keep it up to scratch. This of course may require a lot of costs incurred in maintenance or replacement - not good in a difficult finance market. 

Then again, it's got 4 "strong buy" recommendations, and 6 "moderate buy" recommendations (total 10 brokers) which is pretty high.


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## Muschu (14 April 2008)

gfresh said:


> I looked a bit at Caltex due to it's attractive P/E and dividend.. however I cannot see it rising strongly due to a few concerns.
> 
> The main concern with Caltex I have read in a couple of reports, is that the profit margins for Caltex (and other refiners) is gradually shrinking. While the price of oil is going up, they pay for their oil in $AUD, so the USD/AUD eats into that right now. It's also hard to ratchet up petrol prices equally with oil price rises due to consumer concern, and probably Government pressure.
> 
> ...




Surely the professional analysts take into account the negatives, as listed above by a number of posters, to SP forecasts.  The analyst companies on JNArena ALL have a buy [most very recent] on CTX. Not only that, but they have an average projected target price of over $30.  That is a huge move from where they are now at under $14.  Do such analyst companies have other agendas at work?
I understand that there is a great deal of expertise on ASF but I am quite puzzled by the discrepency between a number of ASF member opinions and the consistent views of companies that clearly see strong forward growth. 
Me no understand...........


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## gfresh (14 April 2008)

For the positives, I was pointing out some of the negatives, and which are pointed out themselves in their 2007 yearly report. Even they state the biggest issues for them are decreased margins (largely due to higher oil prices), maintenance costs, and unfavourable exchange rates (p.6). Will this improve over the course of this year, or in fact be worse?   

For those sorts of "target $30" reports.. at the moment, I can see a consensus through commsec (10 analysts, the large names) forecast median EPS for 2008 of $1.378. 

On a forward P/E of 10 that's obviously $13.78 (approx current price), which I agree is maybe too low. However, to reach a price of even close to $27.56 thats a ratio of 20. That's a very generous ratio, especially in the current bear market environment. Maybe things will change later on in the year, who knows.

If we are talking short-term, in effect the analysts are stating that 2008 profits are likely to be very much down (-42%) on 2007 from their own estimates. On one hand they are issuing "strong buy" recommendations, yet according to them, net profit will be shrinking this year. There is a contradiction there. 

Maybe they have longer timeframes than I am thinking and this is where the difference lies. If we are talking 2-3+ year target then maybe they are looking at longer term factors.

Anyhow, I am just unsure with a few uncertainties out there on this stock. No need to listen to me if you disagree, it's just one opinion. Most of us are just amateurs here.


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## Muschu (24 April 2008)

kennas said:


> Support and resitance are points on the chart where a stock stops at, or bounces off. This can occur both horizontally and diagonally on a chart. On the way down, better support is where the stock has found previous resistance on the way up; and on the way up, more resistance is where there was previous support on the way down. When a stock breaks resistance on the way up, this is a good thing, breaking support poor. Stocks will only generally be considered going 'up' if they are making higher lows and highs in the chart. However, there can be short, mid and long term perspectives on this, of course. From the chart commented on previously, there is resistance at 16 and lots more between 19 and 21. Until these are broken, the stock is at risk of trading sideways. As a long term investor in blue chips, you would be less concerned with the shorter term aspects of price movement. However, my personal approach is to keep in something that is at least mid term up, or the money is better in the bank earning interest. In regard to CTX, it is back to where is was in May 05, so it's definately not trending long term up IMO. Mid term it's way down, and will be short term up when it makes some higher highs and lows and breaks those resistance lines. All the best, kennas




Cripes what has happened to CTX today?  Is this a sideways movement or is there something else going on?


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## heredownunder (30 May 2008)

Hey! What is with Caltex? Close up nearly 6%. Oil Price up.
Did it just get over sold (shorted) and now trying to make a come back? Are analysts saying it should never have gone through this dip in SP and should be back on the old trend line at $30? Is the SP now forming a consolidation wedge and about to take off again? Cheers.


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## shadow123 (20 June 2008)

Any new news on CTX?

Taking a bit of a dip , as expected with the drop in oil price.


Hopefully that gap will be filled sooner than later.

Average 39.9% target price for next 12 months from the big 6.


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## Smurf1976 (21 June 2008)

kyme said:


> I am an oil bull, think long term price only going one way. Does Caltex have any production assetts or only a oil refiner/retailer?. Without any production assetts a rising oil price would be only negative or at best neutral to Caltex share profitability.



Caltex is a refining and marketing company, not an oil exploration and production company. 

I owned CTX when refinery capacity was tight and crude supply exceeded refining capacity but sold out quite a while ago (over a year). 

If crude production peaks and declines then that leaves a surplus of refining capacity and makes for a highly competitive industry there, hence I don't see CTX fitting with my long term view of an energy bull market. Same with any other company predominantly involved with buying the resource and processing it (possible medium term exception of gas-fired power plants due to greenhouse issues).


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## Ken (12 September 2008)

CALTEX...

I don't think the market has caught onto how the economy is effecting CTX.

The US dollar is rising.. so this is good for caltex.

And the price of oil is falling so this is even better....

Look at newscorp, aristocrat, boral, and even james hardie... they have all responded well on the charts, yet caltex hasn't. 

I think there is an opportunity here if the US dollar continues to strengthen against the Aussie...

The bottom line for CTX will be 20% better off due to currency movement alone, and with falling oil price this will help margins again won't it???


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## bluecheese101 (26 October 2008)

Caltex is still falling at the moment despite the strength of the US dollar. However would the recent announcement of a cut in oil supply be a set back for Caltex? Anyone willing to share their thoughts on this?


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## tommymac (21 November 2008)

You would expect a cut in oil supply would increase the cost of oil and lower CTX margin. (All else being equal). However the oil price has not increased as we all know. 

Some other information

CTX has increased its debt to >$900m taking its debt/equity ratio to approx 35% (previously 21%). I don't consider this high and it is still well below its available debt facilities of around $1,500m. It has always managed its debt well.

Assuming it continues its current capital expenditure of $1.17/share and the expected EPS of $0.485 (which I got from Aspect Huntley) I calculate the share price at $10-$11.  Goldman Sachs agrees with a 12 month share price target of $10.75 indicating it has been oversold.

Funny thing is, I also invested in AWE, an oil producer. This has also been sold off. I'm no longer trying to understand the market,  just looking for opportunities and looking to make a profit over a long term.


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## Smurf1976 (21 November 2008)

Ken said:


> The bottom line for CTX will be 20% better off due to currency movement alone, and with falling oil price this will help margins again won't it???



Don't forget that refined petroleum products (diesel, petrol, kerosene etc) are a market in themselves. It's the gap between the crude oil price and the refined product price that matters to CTX more than the actual prices of either. So it's the price of refining itself rather than the price of crude oil that matters here.


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## DowJones (10 December 2008)

What do people think of Caltex at these sub $7 levels?

I remember buying CTX last year at 20.00 and sold at 22. They have performed terribly since crude shot up earlier this year, hurting their refining margins. But since, Crude has come off, as well as the AUD, which should benefit Caltex.

Their forward EPS shows growth in earnings:

         2007	2008	2009	2010
EPS	164.4	50.2	120.0	143.5
DPS	80.0	44.8	66.0	71.0

It also have a dividend yield of 9.1% - does anyone know what is the likelihood of a dividend cut for Caltex?


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## tab96 (18 December 2008)

DowJones said:


> What do people think of Caltex at these sub $7 levels?
> 
> I remember buying CTX last year at 20.00 and sold at 22. They have performed terribly since crude shot up earlier this year, hurting their refining margins. But since, Crude has come off, as well as the AUD, which should benefit Caltex.
> 
> ...




Hey, I am a bit new to share trading (bought CBA shares... enough said) so feel free to educate if your inclined, but from what I see on the ASX website, 2008 dividends sum to 69c, which at $6.96 gives a dividend yield of 9.91%.

I guess what I am asking is how to you find these growth forecasts and why do they not correspond with the 69c DPS that I see?

I am interested in CTX at the moment, I am also interested in everyones take on their position regarding OPEC lowering production, its better for their margins to have cheap oil, which at the moment it obviously is, but this is likely set to rise.  Also with the AU$ appearing to be on the rise since the Fed cut rates, this will likely be worse for CTX from what I understand.  But surely a stronger dollar and increase in the oil price (aside from this being induced by OPEC) if sustained, would indicate strengthening economic conditions and would lead to a general rise in the ASX200 and hence CTX... 

Any thoughts?


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## tommymac (27 October 2009)

The CTX SP has declined quickly recently.

Is this due to the decision on Mobil on Nov 11 or is there another reason?

I'll be grateful for any comments.

Cheers


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## clayton4115 (27 October 2009)

well its definately looking abit sick, ive got a short in at the moment, more it goes down, the more i make.

How much did you get (units)?


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## tommymac (28 October 2009)

clayton4115 said:


> well its definately looking abit sick, ive got a short in at the moment, more it goes down, the more i make.
> 
> How much did you get (units)?




I've currently got 435 shares with an avg price of $12.084. However I had more but sold when it hit $15 so its not as bad for me as it looks overall. But I do need to make a decision on whether to hold or sell or maybe buy more.

Unless I hear some reason from someone else, I'm going to wait for the decision on Nov 11 before making a decision to sell.


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## clayton4115 (28 October 2009)

well looking at the price today and its close, it looks like it has hit support, so there is a good possibility it will recover in price from now, dont know how strong it will hold this level

but the RSI is showing oversold levels.


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## lenny (4 November 2009)

Tommymac or anyone , Can you tell me where you got your information of the announcement on November 11th, Or is this just rumour?

Regards 
Lenny


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## Paul Ellis (6 November 2009)

I thought CTX would get more price uplift from the WOW/Petrol deal - seems pretty good value around current levels but I thought it looked good at $13.00 so who knows???


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## riverred (6 November 2009)

Well, CTX sp rose unexpectedly today. I guess I had hesitated a day too long. After waiting for weeks for the sp to drop below $10.00, when it did so yesterday, I worried about another $1.00 sp drop. Drat! My cautiousness was a hindrance this time.


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## skc (7 November 2009)

riverred said:


> Well, CTX sp rose unexpectedly today. I guess I had hesitated a day too long. After waiting for weeks for the sp to drop below $10.00, when it did so yesterday, I worried about another $1.00 sp drop. Drat! My cautiousness was a hindrance this time.




May be a blessing in disguise. Look up the term "sucker rally".

CTX is one of the stocks that I don't really understand the fundamental drivers... 

Is it crude oil price? Probably not as they will just jack up the petrol price at the browser to compensate?

Is it overall economic activities that determine how much people drive? May be, but there must be a baseline demand there somewhere?

Is it operational and cost efficiencies? How much of their current refining capacity is utilised? What's the ratio between fix and variable costs?

Is it retail sales? But how much profit is generated from their little stores?

So many questions... any one care to share some answers?


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## oldblue (7 November 2009)

I understand that the key profit factor is "refining margin".

But you'll need someone with a better understanding of the industry to explain it and how it is calculated.


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## riverred (7 November 2009)

To obtain some answers to your questions, try caltex.com.au. There is an FAQ section on the lowest icon in the top right corner of the homepage.

I doubt that you will get those revealingly detailled financial info to strengthen your investment analysis because these are trade secrets to enable CTX to survive in the high-competition-low-margin fuel refining industry. 

Of much interest to investors are that:
 - the AUD-USD exchange rate plays a significant role in affecting profit.
 - non-fuel retail sales margin is 70%.
 - fuel retail sales margin is only 3%.

This means that the market is keeping an eye on the exchange rate movements and the outcome of the planned purchase of the Mobil service stations. As the AUD is nearing parity to the USD and while the purchase of Mobil is subject to ACCC review, CTX's sp will understandably drop. This is further exacerbated by the board's caution that 2H will be a tougher year for CTX. Hence, there has not been any div for the last two seasons.

My guess is that the near-term upsides for the sp are likely to be the successful Mobil service stations purchase and a declaration of a good final dividend.


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## oldblue (7 November 2009)

I remember reading some time ago that Caltex was strengthening its position in the Australian refining industry, partly due to the aging and subsequent uncompetitiveness of much of the opposition.
If this is correct, and bearing in mind that refined fuel from Singapore etc is also imported, it seems to me that the refining margin will increase in importance to CTX as it increases supply to other brands.

Again, just a thought that needs some expert assessment!


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## riverred (7 November 2009)

I think that CTX's plans to strengthen its hold on the Australian oil refining industry will need to take into account several factors, including:

 - Competition from the huge Indian, Chinese and Korean refiners, some of whose individual annual production is close to Australia's national production.
 - The voluminous oil products imported into Australia's eastern seaboard cities from nearby Asian refineries.
 - Australian refineries suffering from subtantial disadvantages in regulatory, operating & capital costs.
 - The surplus regional oil products are projected to increase from the current 2% to 8% by 2014, before falling rapidly.
 - Unlike the Asian countries, Australia doesn't offer excellent investment and taxation incentives for investing into refining infrastructure.
 - Despite CTX boasting that its oil products are of premium quality, Australia's fuel regulatory standards actually lag behind those of Hongkong, Japan and Korea. Our standards are about on par with NZ's and Singapore's.

That's not to say that CTX doesn't have its competitive advantages, but we should be realistic about the larger environmental contexts.


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## McCoy Pauley (2 December 2009)

Bad news for Caltex today with the ACCC rejecting an application to approve Caltex's proposed acquisition of 300 Mobil service stations.

http://www.theage.com.au/business/watchdog-blocks-caltex-bid-for-mobil-servos-20091202-k5cz.html

Caltex has issued a release to the ASX to say that they're considering their options in response to the ACCC's decision.

http://www.asx.com.au/asxpdf/20091202/pdf/31mhm8ylr7473g.pdf

Disc - I hold 200 shares.


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## Taltan (15 December 2009)

Taken a real battering lately, now at $8.02. As said on here before I think the biggest issue defining their profits is refining margins. With the $AUD so strong and oil sold in $USD is this why they're not making profits. Also I know they were knocked back by the ACCC.

Is anyone else interested in this one as seems to me it should fix itself at whatever point the $AUD drops to more sustainable levels. I'm weary though because I also don't know much about what CTX do?


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## McCoy Pauley (15 December 2009)

Bought 200 shares when Caltex floated way back when (note to self - will need to find out the float price for the purpose of CGT) and finally sold out my holding this morning, having watched my paper profit fall since the ACCC's decision.

The share price started falling when the new CEO's first decision was to announce that he would scrap the payment of the interim dividend.  There was hope that the ACCC would allow the takeover of the Mobil servos to go through but when the ACCC knocked it on the head, that was the death knell as far as the share price went.

The CEO has some grand plans to diversify Caltex's operations (which need to happen) but there's going to be some pain for shareholders until he's managed to complete his grand design.


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## Miner (15 December 2009)

Taltan said:


> Taken a real battering lately, now at $8.02. As said on here before I think the biggest issue defining their profits is refining margins. With the $AUD so strong and oil sold in $USD is this why they're not making profits. Also I know they were knocked back by the ACCC.
> 
> Is anyone else interested in this one as seems to me it should fix itself at whatever point the $AUD drops to more sustainable levels. I'm weary though because *I also don't know much about what CTX do*?




Hi Taltan

I hope CTX comes better.
I was intrigued to learn that you did not know what Caltex does and have such a good interest on its share price.
I am sure you have seen Caltex petrol pumps in the city you live ?
May be have a look http://www.caltex.com.au/ to know more about Caltex.
Probably it is time that CTX holders should know more about their companies and just not the share price and then grill the CEO to either perform or strip him down from his seat. CTX CEO is the person who predicted oil to reach $200 a barrel by the end of 2009. I wonder why he is getting paid still.

I am a prospective investor of CTX and not a holder. Whenever I thought to invest on CTX the price slumped. Looking their performance or lack of it, strong AUD, low refinery margin May be I wait for $5 to buy it


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## Taltan (15 December 2009)

Miner, My interest is because I think it might be low. Certainly the ACCC knocking them back should not have such a big effect - after all no acquisition that cash can be used elsewhere. 

I know what they do on a basic level, they're a top-down oil refiner. What I meant is that unlike a bank, a telco, a miner etc. I'm not familar with what drives their profitability other than refining margins. 

I'm not worried that they didn't pay a dividend (more cash for them) or how high their invesntory may get (oil very liquid) so I am just wondering if management ok and the price is just a result of strong $AUD and the ACCC decision.


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## Miner (15 December 2009)

Taltan said:


> Miner, My interest is because I think it might be low. Certainly the ACCC knocking them back should not have such a big effect - after all no acquisition that cash can be used elsewhere.
> 
> I know what they do on a basic level, they're a top-down oil refiner. What I meant is that unlike a bank, a telco, a miner etc. I'm not familar with what drives their profitability other than refining margins.
> 
> I'm not worried that they didn't pay a dividend (more cash for them) or how high their invesntory may get (oil very liquid) so I am just wondering if management ok and the price is just a result of strong $AUD and the ACCC decision.




Thanks a lot Taltan

What you said makes more sense.

Caltex operates fuel stations, refineries, makes additives for fuel. 

Caltex owns and operates two petroleum fuels refineries with a combined capacity of more than 35 million litres per day, making Caltex the *largest refiner of crude oil in Australia*. Now here comes the catch. When AUD goes up being a high Australian content the cost of operations for Caltex goes up and hence the profit margin goes down. 

Caltex owns and operates 11 seaboard storage terminals and has three joint venture lubricant blending plants around Australia. These JV are with Shell and  Mobil.

Caltex operates the largest oil company retail network in Australia. It has an estimated market share of more than 30% of the major transport fuels sold nationally. 

The company also manufactures and markets specialty products such as bitumen, gases and waxes. It has presence in more than 60 countries

Vitalgas Pty Limited, a *50:50 joint venture between Caltex and Origin Energy* is a retailer of LPG. Vitalgas has about 600 sites across Australia and is one of the major suppliers of LPG to the Australian market with an estimated market share of about 10%. 

Interestingly enough Caltex is a brand off shoot from Chevron. It probably buys the crude from Chevron then as a profit centre refines the crude. In dual price transfer policy the profit margin shrinks and we the consumers pay the premium and shareholders get the burnt of low margin.

I am a Miner so please ask other O & G experts in the forum to update you. 

*I am pretty sure with the spread of your knowledge as demonstrated by your postings , everything I said is already known to you *


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## Taltan (15 December 2009)

Miner said:


> *I am pretty sure with the spread of your knowledge as demonstrated by your postings , everything I said is already known to you *




Thanks for the compliments but no I didn't know that much about CTX. What I said came from an accountant's knowledge. I missed out today its gone back to 8.44. Still on the radar, it looks good apart from the fact that the $AUD could hit parity or what you said about Chevron. Anyway thanks for the input


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## McCoy Pauley (15 December 2009)

Taltan said:


> Thanks for the compliments but no I didn't know that much about CTX. What I said came from an accountant's knowledge. I missed out today its gone back to 8.44. Still on the radar, it looks good apart from the fact that the $AUD could hit parity or what you said about Chevron. Anyway thanks for the input




Yeah, I'm kicking myself I didn't hold on for 6 more hours before pulling the trigger on my sell order.


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## eddiewouldgo (15 January 2010)

G'day all,

Technicaly CTX looks to have turned a long term corner. 

High volume blow off lows in December 2009 down to around ~$8 held above the ~$6 lows of a year previous. Yesterday 14/1 we saw good volume to break from congestion at $9.50. Wave 3 underway if you're that way inclined to call the market.

2007/8 - ~$26 to ~$6
2009 - base build
2010/11 - $9 to ?

Fundamentaly CTX has exchange rate risk but the more I hear of USD parity the more I want to be short the AUD.

I have a long position in CTX with a horizon of 12-24 months.


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## McCoy Pauley (22 February 2010)

Really kicking myself I pulled the trigger on the "sell" order and that I didn't buy back in when the price dipped around $8.50 or so a month or so ago.

Very positive report released to the market and the market has responded accordingly.

DYOR.


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## tminus (12 March 2010)

New here, surprise that nothing has been posted in this thread for sometime as the  share price has rocketed recently.


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## Smurf1976 (12 March 2010)

Miner said:


> Interestingly enough Caltex is a brand off shoot from Chevron. It probably buys the crude from Chevron then as a profit centre refines the crude. In dual price transfer policy the profit margin shrinks and we the consumers pay the premium and shareholders get the burnt of low margin.



Possible although if true then Chevron would simply be a middle man to a large extent I'd assume. The "major" oil companies such as Chevron produce only a small share of the world's crude oil, with national companies (Aramco, PDVSA etc) being the major players in crude oil production.


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## mr. jeff (9 July 2010)

hello everyone,
aside from where their profit comes from, has anyone got any theories / thoughts / speculation on where the "great" CEO is headed - anyone hear anything about the potential purchase of BP's refinery in WA? this may be an interesting one if BP is currently trying to raise cash...
Where is all the dividend cash  being directed!!!? No Mobil, return the cash!


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## ROE (10 July 2010)

mr. jeff said:


> hello everyone,
> aside from where their profit comes from, has anyone got any theories / thoughts / speculation on where the "great" CEO is headed - anyone hear anything about the potential purchase of BP's refinery in WA? this may be an interesting one if BP is currently trying to raise cash...
> Where is all the dividend cash  being directed!!!? No Mobil, return the cash!




Refinery is a low margin business and high capital requirement I don't think it is a good idea to buy such a business when you face much better and cheaper players from Asia.

I don't have ctx business model like this will get hammer big time in bad times with a little room for error


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## mr. jeff (25 August 2010)

an update on caltex - reported revenue up 3% with a "this is the bottom for us" statement from Segal, and a reinstatement of dividends  (30c). 
It is good that the cash comes back to the shareholders, but a bit disappointing that there weren't any new plans to expand and use the cash to enhance the business - conservative move I guess, but considering the low margins on refining in Australia and lack of any upcoming excitement in this company, will they just go on producing and taking whatever prices they can get? 

It seems a very dreary company to me, something for the buy and hold investors with plenty of downside....! Why not just buy product from the Asian refineries and shut down Australian ones and focus on the retailing side of the business which they are making money on?


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## iced earth (24 October 2010)

*CALTEX (CTX) -22.10.10 :*

The price is testing the white line which acts as a resistance line, this line is also part of a symmetrical triangle. 
if this line broken up successfully we would anticipate further upward movement and target cloud be up to red line (more than 20 $)


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## iced earth (8 January 2011)

CALTEX (CTX) -08.01.11 :

As it was posted on 22.10.10 when price was around $12. (above) . price passed up the resistance line (upper line of the symmetrical triangle and upper line of the downtrend channel. now the price testing $15(%25 above $12) . the targets of triangle and upper line of the downtrend channel are above $20





but is short term we might have divergence between price , RSI and Momentum and a correction. (the green line and EMA 20 will be the resistance levels)


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## iced earth (4 February 2011)

CTX- 3 Feb 2011:

as it was predicted the divergence between price and RSI and CCI caused halt in price rising and we saw the correction. in short time view there is a possibility we have a Bullish Head and Shoulders. but we must wait for forming the right shoulder and then breaking the neck line with strong volume, then the target would be around 15.40

View attachment 41168


in longer term after successful break up the triangle and channel we now have important fibo 32.8 around 14.60 , the next resistance will be fibo 50 % around 17.15 . but the final target would be the highest price around $28.

View attachment 41169


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## iced earth (10 February 2011)

CTX-10.02.11

As it was predicted above, CTX could form the Left Shoulder , if the neckline will passed up successfully the target of this Head and Shoulder pattern would be around $ 15.40


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## iced earth (17 February 2011)

_*CTX-17.02.11*_

As it was predicted above, CTX  forms Head and Shoulders pattern, Today the neckline breaks up with increased volume.  the target of this Head and Shoulder pattern would be around $ 15.50




in longer term view the downtrend channel is broken with target above $20 




also there is a Andrew Pitch Fork and the price after passing of the middle line will have the upper line as s resistance line.


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## iced earth (21 February 2011)

_*CTX - 21.02.11*_

as predicted in previous posts after forming the right shoulder, the neckline passed up and the price reached 15.33 . the target of the pattern was predicted around 15.50




but the price around 15.50 has middle line of Andrew Pitchfork as a serious resistance line. maybe it can not break this line at once. but when it will, we might see price increase to the upper line of the pitch fork.


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## iced earth (18 June 2011)

*CTX - 17-06-2011*

CTX is located in a very important situation, it has the green (upper line of the channel) and red support lines. the target for channel and shown head$shoulders have the same target and the recent drop would be considered a pullback for H&S in weekly chart.



also the shown Andrew pitch fork shows the support line for the price. Price couldn't pass the middle line of the fork.




in Linear chart we have the Head and shoulders with target around $11.00 (which we are near to this target) at this target price would touch  the valid and important support line (which has formed the lower line of the channel)




around 11.00$ (or even the current price) we have strong supports , if these supports cant hold the price , more severe short should be anticipated .


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## mr. jeff (31 October 2011)

Looking for $12, waiting to see a report about their difficult refiner margins or something similar although latest news about refinery changes potentially a change for the better...


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## pixel (20 July 2012)

another big company that's been largely ignored by share Fora.
After a strong move in May, it dropped back into EOFY before giving me another strong Buy signal. That move has swung up hitting the Fibonacci target square on; now we're already short again, aiming for the 100% level, if not lower: See the gap???




But "Safety first": I'll stop out of the Short if it runs above $14.70.


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## McLovin (21 July 2012)

pixel said:


> another big company that's been largely ignored by share Fora.
> After a strong move in May, it dropped back into EOFY before giving me another strong Buy signal. That move has swung up hitting the Fibonacci target square on; now we're already short again, aiming for the 100% level, if not lower: See the gap???
> 
> View attachment 48007
> ...




These guys have a seriously profitable business when the volatile refining business is stripped out, and it's been growing at ~20%/year for the last 5 yers. They have basically said they want to get out of refining or drastically scale it back and rely more on imports from the Asian super refineries. If that all goes to plan then they should be about ~$20/share.


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## JTLP (7 March 2013)

McLovin said:


> These guys have a seriously profitable business when the volatile refining business is stripped out, and it's been growing at ~20%/year for the last 5 yers. They have basically said they want to get out of refining or drastically scale it back and rely more on imports from the Asian super refineries. If that all goes to plan then they should be about ~$20/share.




McLovin do you still hold?

What an absolutely stellar run these guys have had! You hit the nail on the head with this one - imports seem to be helping them a lot.

I guess there are 2 main questions:

1 - Can they continue the growth and the shares power along?
2 - Will a downturn in the AUD affect their importing?


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## McLovin (8 March 2013)

JTLP said:


> 1 - Can they continue the growth and the shares power along?




Can they continue the growth at above average rates, yes. I wouldn't be buying now, though.



JTLP said:


> 2 - Will a downturn in the AUD affect their importing?




When CTX refines they basically are affected by the margin on the cost of refining here v the cost of refining and shipping to here. By switching to import terminals they remove the volatility of having to compete with Asian refineries and essentially just "clip the ticket" on refined oil passing through their terminals. If the AUD continues to affect the import business it will be at a significantly reduced level, and the marketing segment should be relatively unaffected by AUD changes given the demand inelasticity of fuel.


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## McLovin (25 October 2013)

McLovin said:


> These guys have a seriously profitable business when the volatile refining business is stripped out, and it's been growing at ~20%/year for the last 5 yers. They have basically said they want to get out of refining or drastically scale it back and rely more on imports from the Asian super refineries. If that all goes to plan then they should be about ~$20/share.




For those of you who follow Camden on the other forum he's pretty much formed the same opinion I had way back in early 2012 (pardon the hubris) and has done a pretty lengthy post, well worth the read. The transformation remains on track. I still hold. Bought in at ~$12.


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## Ves (25 October 2013)

McLovin said:


> For those of you who follow Camden on the other forum he's pretty much formed the same opinion I have and has done a pretty lengthy post, well worth the read. The transformation remains on track. I still hold. Bought back at ~$10.



I did read that actually. Fantastic analysis as usual.  I've also been buying on any weakness,  slowly trying to build a position.    I've always had CTX in the back of my mind,  but for some reason thought it was expensive on the way up from high single figures (to almost double that now).   In the end I paid a fair bit for increased clarity,  but on the same hand I certainly don't think it's overly expensive at the moment.


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## Ves (29 October 2013)

I saw Camden's post re 2015 forecasts today for CTX post-Kurnell for EBIT about $725m  which is around consensus.    I had around $700 EBIT with potential growth at around 5% per annum (which may or may not be a bit conservative considering the phenomenal growth their distribution / marketing segment has achieved in the last 5 years).

On my calcs - EV is around $5.8b,  plus say account for an additional $500m for the conversion.

On an EV of $6.3b a post-conversion EBIT of $700m  means a multiple of only about 9 times on current market prices.     That is fairly cheap for a company that has considerable market share and sustainable competitive advantages from their infrastructure in NSW and national network alliances and branding  (having Chevron dominant on the shareholder register never hurts either). 

It's a pity I didn't listen to you a little bit earlier on this one McLovin, but the numbers didn't make sense to me at the time.


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## McLovin (31 October 2013)

Ves said:


> It's a pity I didn't listen to you a little bit earlier on this one McLovin, but the numbers didn't make sense to me at the time.




That's alright! I'd rather you understand for yourself than take my word for it. I was pretty vague about it anyway, as I usually am. Around the time I got interested CTX was only discussing the idea as an option. What convinced me that it was all but inevitable was when you looked at the competitive landscape in Asia. A super refinery in Asia (Singapore is especially relevant to Australia) has the same capacity as all the refineries in Australia. That gives those guys massive economies of scale. Until recently, Australia's enviromental controls meant that sourcing fuels from Asia was a "specialty" product for those refineries, however so much of Asia has now moved to Euro III and higher that Australian grade (iirc we are on Euro III too) is now mainstream. When you take into account that, and that the underlying business was being discounted because of the refining volatility and that there was no loss of CTX's competitive position by switching to an import terminal, it just seemed to make perfect sense.


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## Ves (19 December 2013)

Updated 2013 full year results outlook looked pretty solid to me.

My main interest is the long-term performance of the marketing business.  4% EBIT growth forecast for the full year (which includes a $10m adverse impact of supply interruption in Sydney).

Refining will be bumpy until Kernel finally shuts down.  And may provide opportunities for further entries.  I picked some more up in the $17.40s on Monday.  

Brokers were predicting no growth in marketing business last week from memory.  Probably why it bounced today.


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## piggybank (29 December 2013)




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## piggybank (23 October 2014)

The company did a presentation the other day as part of their International Road Show.

http://www.stocknessmonster.com/news-item?S=CTX&E=ASX&N=823868


​


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## Ves (11 December 2014)

Hmmm...   I still don't think this is wildly expensive at these prices  (at around 11-12x EBIT with fairly dependable earnings).   I haven't added since my last post.  Update today starting really confirm the investment thesis that McLovin first mentioned.

EDIT:  Net debt of $650m,   a reduction of around $100m this year,  also provides evidence of the cash generation abilities of the underlying business,  despite being in the middle of a major transformation capital project!!!


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## VSntchr (30 March 2015)

Kaboom! 50% of the company on-sale. Lots of supply = the market has punished it down ~10% for the day. 

Although it may not be all bad, with the foreign holding gone there is potential for ASX50 index inclusion and the possibility for capital management has increased now that the release of franking credits becomes more appropriate. In a yield appreciative market this should bode well in the medium term for Caltex.

Operationally, the company states that it's business as normal - with Chevron keeping the supply agreement in force. 

Had a read through the thread and saw a few first class ASF business analysts discussing this in 2013 - the chart shows it's been a rewarding exercise for you guys!


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## skc (30 March 2015)

VSntchr said:


> Kaboom! 50% of the company on-sale. Lots of supply = the market has punished it down ~10% for the day.




50% of the company *SOLD*. Bookbuild was done over the weekend... the BIGGEST one in ASX history no less.

I can never understand why a major shareholder's block trade has so much impact, especically when there are extenuating circumstances which are pretty well known. In this case, Chevon needs to hunker down in the low oil price environment... yet somehow there are enough lemmings out there to sell the stock in unison.



VSntchr said:


> Although it may not be all bad, with the foreign holding gone there is potential for ASX50 index inclusion and the possibility for capital management has increased now that the release of franking credits becomes more appropriate. In a yield appreciative market this should bode well in the medium term for Caltex.




I am surprised that it fell that much... I thought it would hold $35 given the benefits as you've flagged. Looking for a bounce trade over the next few sessions.


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## notting (15 December 2015)

Starting to look like it wants to lead the charge!
All this refining of cheap oil gonna be helping some.



> The OPEC oil cartel will be forced to call an emergency meeting within weeks to stabilise the market if crude prices fail to rebound after crashing to eight-year lows of $US35 a barrel, two member states have warned, the UK Telegraph's Ambrose Evans-Pritchard says:
> 
> Emmanuel Kachikwu, Nigeria's oil minister and OPEC president until last week, said the cartel was still hoping the oil market would recover by February as low prices squeeze out excess production from US shale, Russia and the North Sea. But nerves are beginning to fray.
> 
> "If it doesn't, then obviously we're in for a very urgent meeting," he said. Indonesia has issued similar warnings over recent days, suggesting the OPEC majority may try to force a meeting if Saudi Arabia's strategy of flooding the market creates a deeper crisis.


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## peter2 (4 May 2017)

*CTX*: An interesting chart right now, because there's a attractive setup for a longer term trader. 

_Daily chart_: First thing I do is draw a line across 31.00. It's a very clear resistance line.  Then I notice the HL (higher low) formation. These two things make the chart interesting for me as a BO trader. 

The logical place for an iSL is below the HL. The size of the risk is (31.00 - 28.50 = 2.50) too large for a short term method. It's OK for a medium term TP using weekly charts though. 

_Weekly chart_: Huge price swing from 17 to 38 dominates the chart. Since then (~2.5yrs) price has been trading sideways. This corrective move looks about done (abc'ish down to 50% level), so the potential for another impulsive move up is there and we've got a low risk setup for a weekly trader.  The old highs near 38 provide an acceptable RR. 

I'd need to have a fundamental catalyst to help the trade go higher (impulsively). I'm aware that Caltex has modified their business over the past two years and perhaps this is why the price has traded sideways (and nobody has posted in this thread for 2.5yrs also). I don't know if Caltex can grow their business or significantly improve their margin to boost their share price higher. It could be just another "value" business but not a "growth" one.

The price chart is poised . . .


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## bigdog (15 May 2018)

The Motley Fool reports today
https://www.fool.com.au/2018/05/15/leading-brokers-name-3-asx-shares-to-sell-today-8/

Three that caught my eye are listed below. Here’s why they are tipped as sells:

*Caltex Australia Limited* (ASX: CTX)

According to a note out of *Morgan Stanley*, it has retained its *underweight* rating and $26.00 price target on the fuel supplier’s shares. The broker believes that investors ought to be cautious amid speculation that Puma Energy might be interested in acquiring the petrol stations owned by *Woolworths Group Ltd* (ASX: WOW). Its analysts suspect that it would be unlikely that Caltex would be contracted by Puma to supply its fuel, putting future earnings at risk. I think that Morgan Stanley makes a great point and would suggest investors approach Caltex with caution.


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## greggles (29 May 2018)

bigdog said:


> According to a note out of *Morgan Stanley*, it has retained its *underweight* rating and $26.00 price target on the fuel supplier’s shares. The broker believes that investors ought to be cautious amid speculation that Puma Energy might be interested in acquiring the petrol stations owned by *Woolworths Group Ltd* (ASX: WOW). Its analysts suspect that it would be unlikely that Caltex would be contracted by Puma to supply its fuel, putting future earnings at risk. I think that Morgan Stanley makes a great point and would suggest investors approach Caltex with caution.




Caltex is definitely heading lower at a fairly rapid rate. As for the target price of $26, it hasn't seen that level since August 2014, and there doesn't appear to be any support there so it may in fact head lower than that if it does actually get down that far.

Definitely one to stay out of for now until the big picture becomes clearer.


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## bigdog (26 November 2019)

ASX announcement today
26/11/2019 10:00:54 AM *Receipt of Non-Binding Indicative Conditional Proposal* (uploaded below)

Share price up 11.9% at 11:26 am

Caltex confirmed it had received an unsolicited, conditional, confidential, non-binding and indicative proposal from Canadian convenience store multinational Alimentation Couche-Tard to acquire all of its shares.

The indicative cash offer price is $34.50 per share while the Caltex share price closed yesterday at $29.79 .






Don't hold

101


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## bigdog (3 December 2019)

On November 26 Caltex revealed that it had received an unsolicited, conditional, confidential, non-binding and indicative proposal from Alimentation Couche-Tard.

Alimentation Couche-Tard offered to acquire Caltex by way of scheme of arrangement at an indicative cash price of $34.50 per share less any dividends.

This morning Caltex announced that its board has concluded that the proposal undervalues the company and does not represent compelling value for Caltex’s shareholders.







Update on the Proposal from Alimentation Couche-Tard
CALTEX AUSTRALIA LIMITED CTX 9:20 03-Dec-19

245


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## Smurf1976 (23 December 2019)

I see from media reports that the Australian Caltex service stations, all of them, are to be re-branded from Caltex to Ampol.

Whilst the Ampol name will be very familiar to Australians over the age of ~40, it's an unfamiliar brand to the younger half of the population and to the not insignificant number of immigrants who've arrived in Australia since then.

So I'm thinking that it's not a positive. Petrol is a commodity product certainly but the brand name must have some value surely? They're switching to what for probably half of potential customers is an unknown name so I can't see too much benefit from that. No choice though since Chevron has apparently decided to not renew the licence to use the Caltex name.


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## galumay (23 December 2019)

Hard to know how it will play out, seems likely the Caltex name will grace the Puma servos as Chevron has bought them. Not sure brand plays much part with fuel, convenience and price is probably the big driver. Long term savings for current Caltex in licence fees, but a big upfront cost for rebranding. 

The more sensible option would be for Chevron to continue to licence the Caltex name and retain the Puma name in Australia, they would keep licence fees, have no rebrand cost, and Caltex would also have no rebrand cost. Win win.


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## qldfrog (23 December 2019)

By pure system refining luck or bad luck, i sold today at the open with minimal loss.i agree that the name is not that important


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## System (19 May 2020)

On May 19th, 2020, Caltex Australia Limited (CTX) changed its name and ASX code to Ampol Limited (ALD).


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## jbocker (19 May 2020)

Smurf1976 said:


> Whilst the Ampol name will be very familiar to Australians over the age of ~40, it's an unfamiliar brand to the younger half of the population and to the not insignificant number of immigrants who've arrived in Australia since then.



Supply extra cheap fuel for a while will help with quick brand recognition.
On history I remember Mobil stations and the scarce Golden Fleece. Crank handle start ups. But NO not horse and cart. When I started driving a carton of beer and a larger tank of petrol cost about the same, $20 and was all stocked up with a bit of change for parking..


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## sptrawler (19 May 2020)

jbocker said:


> Supply extra cheap fuel for a while will help with quick brand recognition.
> On history I remember Mobil stations and the scarce Golden Fleece. Crank handle start ups. But NO not horse and cart. When I started driving a carton of beer and a larger tank of petrol cost about the same, $20 and was all stocked up with a bit of change for parking..



Those were the days, petrol 50c a gallon, beer 80c a jug and wages $22/week. 
Myself and a mate used to put $2 of fuel in the HG 253, take $2 for drinks and have a great night out in Kal (beer, women and fights the good old days in the wild west).


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## jbocker (19 May 2020)

sptrawler said:


> Those were the days, petrol 50c a gallon, beer 80c a jug and wages $22/week.
> Myself and a mate used to put $2 of fuel in the HG 253, take $2 for drinks and have a great night out in Kal (beer, women and fights the good old days in the wild west).



You would have been baptised with Hannans Lager. I had a HK, it nearly ended up with a different colour for every panel, including the roof. The coppers loved pulling me over to have a chat.


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## Dona Ferentes (17 May 2021)

Key points 
• _Ampol welcomes the Federal Government’s proposed support for Australian refineries, which provides a variable support payment of up to $108m pa for Lytton operations during periods of low refining margins 
• The package also provides for a funding grant of up to $125 million from the Federal government to undertake infrastructure upgrades to produce ultra-low sulfur petrol  
• Ampol intends to continue refining at Lytton until at least mid 2027, in accord with the package requirements, provided that the legislation is enacted and government support initiatives are finalised as proposed 
• With ongoing refining operations, Ampol will realise benefits afforded to Australian refiners under proposed minimum stock holding obligations, including lower holding obligations, reducing working capital requirements and avoidance of costs on incremental storage 
• Ampol’s decision maximises shareholder value, and enables progress towards alternative uses for this strategic site, while preserving and developing manufacturing skills that will be critical for success in the energy transition 
• Support during periods of low margins improves the quality of Lytton’s earnings profile by significantly reducing earnings volatility and earnings downside risk, which should result in a higher earnings outcome on average 
• Reduced volatility will improve earnings quality, lower average cost of capital, and enable Ampol to increase its target leverage range to 2.0x – 2.5x Adj. Net Debt / EBITDA, in turn supporting incremental growth and/or shareholder returns 
• The Federal Government recognises that fuel security and energy transition are linked, and has confirmed an intention to work in partnership with Ampol to leverage its privileged assets, supply chain expertise and customer positions in shaping the energy transition and developing future energy solutions for Australian businesses _


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## frugal.rock (28 July 2022)

jbocker said:


> I had a HK, it nearly ended up with a different colour for every panel, including the roof. The coppers loved pulling me over to have a chat.





sptrawler said:


> Myself and a mate used to put $2 of fuel in the HG 253, take $2 for drinks and have a great night out in Kal



Just to round out the Holden model series...,
Cops loved pulling me over in my
HT Premier, 186  with a 2 speed power glide. White (whale) with awesome factory black interior.
I remember doing a big handbrake 180° broadslide into a parking spot on the other side of the road at the local shops.
Better days for sure.


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## Dona Ferentes (8 August 2022)

Ampol has secured an Energy Retailer licence; and at least it has the Brand Power:



> Ampol has made its entry into electricity supply, opening its first *AmpCharge *electric vehicle charging site in the inner-city Sydney suburb of Alexandria, with a pilot offer to household customers in the wings.



The Alexandria AmpCharge site, at the Ampol Woolworths MetroGo site, is the first of 120 electric vehicle fast-charging sites to be delivered at Ampol forecourts across Australia by December 2023.


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## Dona Ferentes (22 August 2022)

results out; Lytton refinery doing very well with monster margins (unlikely to be sustained)

Replacement cost operating profit (a figure most closely watched by the market) surged to $471 million in the six months ended June 30, excluding one-time items, from $187.3 million.
Bottom-line net income, which includes the effect of changing prices for oil and fuel products on the value of inventories, went from $325.5 million to $695.9 million.
In convenience retail, EBIT fell to $127.3 million from $149.4 million. Ampol cited the combined effects of omicron, floods and higher retail fuel prices, which reduced demand and squeezed margins

CEO Matt Halliday said the result, the strongest for a six-month period in the company’s history, “_demonstrates the benefits of Ampol’s integrated supply chain”._

*Current trading conditions *

_Since the end of the half, global crude and product markets have continued to experience significant levels of volatility, falling in mid-July. The Lytton Refiner Margin eased to US$16.46/bbl for July, driven largely by weak gasoline product cracks, but remains above historical averages. Irrespective, supply/demand fundamentals are largely unchanged with Russian sanctions and variable levels of Chinese refined product exports constraining supply. _
_On the demand side, global inventory levels are low ahead of the traditional inventory build for the northern hemisphere winter. During July, both Convenience Retail and Z Energy experienced a strong recovery in retail fuel margins as refined product costs eased.  As a result, Convenience Retail exited July with EBIT in line with the prior year, on a year to date basis. _
_The recent easing in refined product costs is also expected to release working capital and improve operating cashflow in the second half._


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