# Who went short yesterday or this morning?



## >Apocalypto< (28 February 2007)

Guys I made a quick buck this morning on the IG markets Aussie200 contract

Any one else go short yesterday or this morning?

My trailing stop has been hit by the way.


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## Halba (28 February 2007)

whoever went short htis morning would've lost money!!


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## Realist (28 February 2007)

All the chartists will tell us "I knew this would happen"

"I closed out almost all of my positions a couple of days ago"

Etc. etc.

However I've not seen one post before the fact that called it, that did not resemble many other posts over the past 6 months calling a correction.

We do not need anyone telling us anything after the fact.

If you closed out positions because you saw the ASX falling in your crystal ball show us the post before yesterday avo.

Otherwise don't bother telling us, everyone and their dog can make up stories after the fact.

sorry for my rant, but people telling us porkies, or even believing they have a crystal ball are annoying.


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## professor_frink (28 February 2007)

Realist said:
			
		

> All the chartists will tell us "I knew this would happen"
> 
> "I closed out almost all of my positions a couple of days ago"
> 
> ...




Go have a look at the SPI thread Realist- CanOz went to cash yesterday


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## rico01 (28 February 2007)

: 
Yesterday I bought 40 wbc $26 put contracts for 20 cents each, right now they are worth 60 cents!
I'm excited


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## Realist (28 February 2007)

professor_frink said:
			
		

> Go have a look at the SPI thread Realist- CanOz went to cash yesterday




If he is trading the SPI and has a crystal ball why cash out, why not short?


Of the 1000 posters here at least 4 or 5 will pick a correction spot on based just on the mathematical odds of guessing.


I've not seen one post suggesting a correction on Feb 28th.  Not that I'd expect to either - nobody knows of course.


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## >Apocalypto< (28 February 2007)

Halba said:
			
		

> whoever went short htis morning would've lost money!!




Not if you had a trailing stop and you bought the contract at 9:50 bud!


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## professor_frink (28 February 2007)

Realist said:
			
		

> If he is trading the SPI and has a crystal ball why cash out, why not short?
> 
> 
> Of the 1000 posters here at least 4 or 5 will pick a correction spot on based just on the mathematical odds of guessing.
> ...



he wasn't trading the SPI- he was asking about the Chinese market, after I made mention of what was happening in the rest of Asia.


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## >Apocalypto< (28 February 2007)

Realist said:
			
		

> All the chartists will tell us "I knew this would happen"
> 
> "I closed out almost all of my positions a couple of days ago"
> 
> ...




Realist

No one has a crystal ball well I dont!

I was shocked when I saw the over night action this morning very shocked I also had two call options to deal with.

But the market did look weak yesterday afternoon on close trend was looking weak but I would not have shorted it of what I saw, but I did throw one ig cash contract on it this morning at 9:55 on the short side.


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## Realist (28 February 2007)

professor_frink said:
			
		

> he wasn't trading the SPI- he was asking about the Chinese market, after I made mention of what was happening in the rest of Asia.




Fair enough.

We are down only 144 points now...  :


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## professor_frink (28 February 2007)

Realist said:
			
		

> Fair enough.
> 
> We are down 144 points now - getting close to my 132..   :
> 
> It is a mere blip, we'll be back above 6000 in days.



I'm not going to make an official predection  
Will wait and see if the U.S futures move down again during the asian session-there off slighly at the moment, but nothing worth worrying about.


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## dodgers (28 February 2007)

I sold out of all my short-term investments last Thursday and went short the SPI yesterday afternoon.

No I don't have a crystal ball I've been following all the threads of Yogi, Magdoran and everyone else on Trading the SPI (both Gann and non-Gann) and XOA analysis etc etc...

the posts in particular on Trading the SPI-Gann Technicques got the high to the day (Magdoran picked 24 feb +/- 1 day...spot on!)

thanks guys!  

also if you follow e/w theory (on many different posts in this forum) we've been expecting that we're close to the top of wave 3 of 5 for some time


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## mmmmining (28 February 2007)

To be honest, I was considering to cash in all my portfolio in last couple of weeks after SP200 cross 6000. After thinking it over, I did not do it. Instead, I cash in a few stocks to raise very few money just in case.

A few of reasons:

I am not a trader, I am a investor;
Taxation; and
The strong money inflow caused by the reform of super. rules still stay.

It is just very bad timing for me yesterday. I just start a new routing to check the Chinese market a day before (posted on BHP thread). I have not fine-turn my procedure yet. Now I understand I should watch it during normal trading day, instead at end of day.

I am glad that we found a new market leader. We have ignored the US market for a couple of years, and being the co-leader ever since. Pay attention to Chinese Market will be the key to day-traders and investors as well.

IMHO, If the commodities can hold reasonably well, I should worry too much...


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## Realist (28 February 2007)

dodgers said:
			
		

> I sold out of all my short-term investments last Thursday and went short the SPI yesterday afternoon.
> 
> No I don't have a crystal ball I've been following all the threads of Yogi, Magdoran and everyone else on Trading the SPI (both Gann and non-Gann) and XOA analysis etc etc...
> 
> ...





Why if Magdoran picked Feb 24th did you not act Feb 23rd, instead of waiting till Feb 27th?

Seems very convenient..


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## Magdoran (28 February 2007)

Realist said:
			
		

> All the chartists will tell us "I knew this would happen"
> 
> "I closed out almost all of my positions a couple of days ago"
> 
> ...



Realist,



Hey, I called a top for XAO with Feb 24 as the key date (giving Feb 23 as the most likely date) on 22 January 2007!  I then projected 6025 as the most likely index value for the XAO on 17 Feb.


Here are the relevant posts, well in advance: 

•	22 January 2007 see post 645 in “Zinc the metal for 2006", 
•	Then on 01/02/07 post 4 in “Trading The SPI - Gann Techniques”,  
•	Clear comments on 23 and 26 Feb on “Can we quit job and invest in stocks full time?” post 99, 106, and 112, 
•	I gave the actual high target of 6025 as my first choice in "ZFX – Zinifex" post 1408 on 17 Feb.


Just look at the posts… 


Mag


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## dodgers (28 February 2007)

No method is ever 100% foolproof, hence I waited to see if Magdoran / Yogi's prediction of a 23 / 26 high was going to hold true (which it seemed to have the 27th), so I went short. Like all things a calculated risk since i would have been stopped out if went back up.

I wish it was that easy for me last may... I lost an absolute fortune. All part of the learning curve


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## Realist (28 February 2007)

Magdoran said:
			
		

> Realist,
> 
> 
> 
> ...




Well you were 4 days out on one of the many dates you listed. 4 days either way gives you an 8 day span to get your timing right. There's only 20 trading days in Feb.

How you make money off that I have no idea.

You pick your date (the 23rd) so you short on the 23rd and you get stopped out as it rises. It rises for a couple of days more then drops 140 points.  There's no chance you took a short every night betting on your guess being right.


Or if you are going long you sell your long positions expecting a fall and pay brokerage and tax, then you buy back in and pay brokerage and you are behind anyway, the market only drops 2% and you pay way more than that in tax and brokerage.

Your guessing can not make any money.


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## ice (28 February 2007)

Realist said:
			
		

> Well you were 4 days out on one of the many dates you listed. 4 days either way gives you an 8 day span to get your timing right. There's only 20 trading days in Feb.
> 
> How you make money off that I have no idea.
> 
> ...





Lol Realist, you're a funny bloke.  Appreciate your humour. Keep it up.   


ice


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## nizar (28 February 2007)

Magdoran said:
			
		

> Look forward to your learned projection.





LOL so do I!!!

Come on Realist, lets see if you are any better than those you knock.


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## Realist (28 February 2007)

nizar said:
			
		

> LOL so do I!!!
> 
> Come on Realist, lets see if you are any better than those you knock.




check for yourself...

https://www.aussiestockforums.com/forums/showthread.php?p=111377#post111377

I'm guessing I'm up about 35 to 40% in 4 months.

MTN for one has doubled since my last update. EVE up alot as well.


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## nizar (28 February 2007)

Realist said:
			
		

> check for yourself...
> 
> https://www.aussiestockforums.com/forums/showthread.php?p=111377#post111377
> 
> ...




Yeh any1 can buy stocks and sit on them.
But to guess exact dates is a tough ask.


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## >Apocalypto< (28 February 2007)

Realist said:
			
		

> check for yourself...
> 
> https://www.aussiestockforums.com/forums/showthread.php?p=111377#post111377
> 
> ...





Realist thanks for hijacking my topic and turning it into a argument!


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## Magdoran (28 February 2007)

dodgers said:
			
		

> I sold out of all my short-term investments last Thursday and went short the SPI yesterday afternoon.
> 
> No I don't have a crystal ball I've been following all the threads of Yogi, Magdoran and everyone else on Trading the SPI (both Gann and non-Gann) and XOA analysis etc etc...
> 
> ...



Glad the forecast helped!


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## stoxclimber (28 February 2007)

Realist said:
			
		

> sorry for my rant, but people telling us porkies, or even believing they have a crystal ball are annoying.




Realist, I understand your argument re: everyone claiming to pick it, and also that some people will randomly guess right on a forum of such a size - however, I have a solution for you - for anyone who claims to have picked the correction one can look at their previous posting history to see the accuracy of their previous predictions, which would generally indicate pure luck or a degree of skill. 


For example, Nick Radge, a seemingly highly respected poster on this site, has a bad track record in posted predictions to ASF. I believe he may have a web page where he makes other predictions which I have not looked at, but if one were to look at his posted predictions to ASF, the accuracy rate is not amazing. Nothing personal against Mr Radge, but its one example that springs to mind


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## Realist (28 February 2007)

nizar said:
			
		

> Yeh any1 can buy stocks and sit on them.
> But to guess exact dates is a tough ask.




That's right!

No-one picked Feb 28th as a major correction before it happened. No one.

Certainly not me, I screamed swear words when I saw how much I lost.   

Everyone was in my opinion ready for a correction, it was obvious aafter how much the market has risen recently and over the past few years, any bad news anywhere would spur on a fall, and 2.5% is nothing in the context of things.

Magdoran did say there would be a downturn on Feb 23rd, but as I said how can you make money from that?  You can't!  Cause if he shorted on that date he'd be stopped out.

There were a few here claiming they had closed positions, shorted, and called it.   Well done if they did, but if you close positions you pay brokerage3 and tax, for a 2.5% drop it aint worth it.  If you short be prepared to be stopped out if you are not exactly on the money, and if you have a crystal ball and call it - please post it before the crash not after.  

Rant over, my apologies. 

And yes anyone can buy stocks and hold them for a 40% profits over 4 months.  Few do though. Very few indeed. No-one else here that I've seen.


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## reece55 (28 February 2007)

Realist said:
			
		

> check for yourself...
> 
> https://www.aussiestockforums.com/forums/showthread.php?p=111377#post111377
> 
> ...




Wow - you made money in a bull market...... Amazing!

In the month of February alone, I made 35% - it ain't that fricken hard when everything is going up...... But more importantly, I lost nothing today - why, cause I was all cash from Friday last week. How much did your portfolio fall today as a consequence of todays big fall????????

Personally, I wouldn't be bagging Mag - his analysis is excellent and I for one appreciate what he has to say from a T/A point of view. Personally, I am here to learn more about how to make consistent money from the stock market, not just in hyped up bull markets. If/When you go through a bear market, you will learn this quickly.

It doesn't take a genius to hold on to Uranium stocks when every Tom Dick and Harry has their money in the things. But hey, don't listen to me, just continue to bag ppl on this forum who actually provide meaningful T/A analysis!


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## >Apocalypto< (28 February 2007)

GUYS NO MORE ARGUING ON THIS TOPIC 

IF YOU WANT TO THE MAKE A T/A VERUS REALIST TOPIC AND TAKE IT OUT THERE!

THIS IS FOR PEOPLE THAT WENT SHORT OVER THE LAST FEW DAYS!


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## CanOz (28 February 2007)

stoxclimber said:
			
		

> Realist, I understand your argument re: everyone claiming to pick it, and also that some people will randomly guess right on a forum of such a size - however, I have a solution for you - for anyone who claims to have picked the correction one can look at their previous posting history to see the accuracy of their previous predictions, which would generally indicate pure luck or a degree of skill.
> 
> 
> For example, Nick Radge, a seemingly highly respected poster on this site, has a bad track record in posted predictions to ASF. I believe he may have a web page where he makes other predictions which I have not looked at, but if one were to look at his posted predictions to ASF, the accuracy rate is not amazing. Nothing personal against Mr Radge, but its one example that springs to mind




Nick, or anyone else for that matter, doesn't have to be accurate. Proper trade management is what makes a profitable trader. The accuracy only improves the number of winners, not the profitability. Even fundemetal investors could do this, why they all don't is beyond me.

This is the first time i have picked a top (if thats what i've done), and i may have got lucky or just been looking to the right indexs at the right time. Its not impossible to do this, its price action, not EW, or GANN that i used to tip me off. I went to cash because i only trade shares, not CFDs, futures or warrants, and i only trade long and i can't go short if i wanted. 

Its not any skin off my nose if you don't believe me, i've got an account full of cash and i feel very happy for that.

Incidently, i suggested to my girlfriend that she sell her Chinese shares on Friday. She was a bit down when she saw Mondays gains, but relieved after Tuesday. Now we are both trying hard to pick the bottom in the markets that we trade so we can get trading again.

Good luck to all, i hope those of you that hold will see your gains come back soon.

Cheers,


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## stoxclimber (28 February 2007)

CanOz said:
			
		

> Nick, or anyone else for that matter, doesn't have to be accurate. Proper trade management is what makes a profitable trader. The accuracy only improves the number of winners, not the profitability. Even fundemetal investors could do this, why they all don't is beyond me.





The point is about the accuracy percentage of these predictions, and Realist is complaining that if one makes 100 predictions some are surely going to be proved true.

I encourage you to look at Nicks posting history for yourself (a good example as there are not many posts). 

And in regard to accuracy, its common sense that as accuracy improves, profit improves ceteris paribus. You can dance around the point all you like, but surely you must admit this.


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