# How to trade and/or invest profitably --- without the Bullsh*t



## tech/a

Its Nearly Feb and the world is trying to vaccinate in a global pandemic--- *2021 AUSTRALIA DAY*.

I've been trading 30 years ---In that time I've had countless people contact me wanting to know the "Holy Grail"
The "Secret Sauce". I've traded Both Systematically eg "Techtrader" as seen in Radges book "Unholy Grails"
and Discretionary. Bought Houses from profits ---blah blah. I've worked with many successful people,
Quants and Programmers and those who dont use either.

But me I've only ever worked with a handful of people,---never for any fee--I dont want money---just time.

I've decided to put this thread together to help* every newbie,* and *every trader* who has varied success
but j*ust cant put that consistency together.* ---- to remove the BULLSH*T  It will take a little time---see above.

BUT

*It will be only a few pages *no padding ---it will be thought provoking and may challenge some.
It is NOT what some think it will be. The last thing we need is pages of --- well stuff!!! (ing)
You WILL be able to apply it Instantly.

*Here is the Crux*

Markets are ruled --and so is your/our success--by.

*Macro Economics*
*Micro Economics---and*
*SUPPLY.*

That's it!

I have a favorite mantra.

*You need to know what you dont need to know
before you can know what it is you need to know.*

Its my intention to take out the first line which fills countless books
seminars,courses and threads and topics and absorb massive amounts
of time and often hard earned cash. While there is ---some--- value in most
there is precious little to most of us. Lots of Chaff. Confusion reigns.
Im going to bring it together.

In the pursuit of giving all of us more time and understanding.
I want you to know Exactly what I've found I needed to know!
I want *YOU* to know!

There are no secrets regardless what some would have you believe.

Ill be back (soon enough).


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## Country Lad

Well tech, we agree so far.    Reminded me, add another year to my sig.  Have I been trading that long - must getting real old.


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## tech/a

Country Lad said:


> Well tech, we agree so far.    Reminded me, add another year to my sig.  Have I been trading that long - must getting real old.



Haha we both are — not liking this getting old stuff 
Just another thing we can’t do gracefully!


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## qldfrog

tech/a said:


> Its Nearly Feb and the world is trying to vaccinate in a global pandemic--- *2021 AUSTRALIA DAY*.
> 
> I've been trading 30 years ---In that time I've had countless people contact me wanting to know the "Holy Grail"
> The "Secret Sauce". I've traded Both Systematically eg "Techtrader" as seen in Radges book "Unholy Grails"
> and Discretionary. Bought Houses from profits ---blah blah. I've worked with many successful people,
> Quants and Programmers and those who dont use either.
> 
> But me I've only ever worked with a handful of people,---never for any fee--I dont want money---just time.
> 
> I've decided to put this thread together to help* every newbie,* and *every trader* who has varied success
> but j*ust cant put that consistency together.* ---- to remove the BULLSH*T  It will take a little time---see above.
> 
> BUT
> 
> *It will be only a few pages *no padding ---it will be thought provoking and may challenge some.
> It is NOT what some think it will be. The last thing we need is pages of --- well stuff!!! (ing)
> You WILL be able to apply it Instantly.
> 
> *Here is the Crux*
> 
> Markets are ruled --and so is your/our success--by.
> 
> *Macro Economics*
> *Micro Economics---and*
> *SUPPLY.*
> 
> That's it!
> 
> I have a favorite mantra.
> 
> *You need to know what you dont need to know
> before you can know what it is you need to know.*
> 
> Its my intention to take out the first line which fills countless books
> seminars,courses and threads and topics and absorb massive amounts
> of time and often hard earned cash. While there is ---some--- value in most
> there is precious little to most of us. Lots of Chaff. Confusion reigns.
> Im going to bring it together.
> 
> In the pursuit of giving all of us more time and understanding.
> I want you to know Exactly what I've found I needed to know!
> I want *YOU* to know!
> 
> There are no secrets regardless what some would have you believe.
> 
> Ill be back (soon enough).



Looking forward for your posts.
Especially as i am trying to systemise a BO algorithm and this is an area you excel (as well as the other domains)
I am sure many will appreciate your direct approach!
I also believe psyche in greed, FOMO and scare is a major factor in the market,and so success, and  mastering these is important, but looking forward to your experience


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## kenny

Also looking forwards to your posts @tech/a and the ensuing discussion.

@qldfrog we should also borrow the latest acronym, FUD to accompany the traditional FOMO in factors influencing market participant behaviour. It's hard for me to digest the extremes of emotions exhibited by the "Robinhood-esque" traders (don't know if they're all young or not)


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## Joe90

🍿


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## lindsayf

Very keen to hear your distilled knowledge and learning Tech.
I think I know a bit about what I don't need to know and a bit about what I need to know.
But I'd like to know more about both.


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## qldfrog

lindsayf said:


> Very keen to hear your distilled knowledge and learning Tech.
> I think I know a bit about what I don't need to know and a bit about what I need to know.
> But I'd like to know more about both.



I know mostly what i do Not know, and took me 20y to go there 😊


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## tech/a

*Regardless *

Of the countless courses,books,You Tube Videos,software packages
System formulas,and endless corporate balance sheets and projections
all *YOU *and* I *need to do to trade consistently profitably and spectacularly so is---

*Find Momentum
Maximize profit*
*Mitigate loss *

Nothing more and nothing less.
You dont need to be a certified accountant who can analyse a companies potential through their
published Balance sheets.(But you can)
You dont need to have system that has been tested over millions of trades (But you can).
Nor do you need the latest technical indicator/s (But you can).
You dont need to diversify over 20-30 stocks (But you can).
You dont need $100,000's or Millions of Dollars (But you can)

Sure you'll need to have a good plan---Im going to show you the CRUX of mine and it wont cost you a cent.

Its not about being RIGHT 
Its about being profitable.
People do it everyday ---they Dumb it down and *Find these (below)*
AND 
Its not that hard
You dont have to get ALL of the move
You dont even have to get 50% of it to be Spectacular in your returns!

Im pretty sure @Value Collector has at least 1 of these.

*You can be wrong 70% or more of the time and get it right 30% and STILL have amazing returns*.





Spectacular returns to me are over 100% on *whatever stake* you use
to trade / year. Above are 4 tickers (and there are many many more) that in 12 mths
have gained 280% to over 1000% ----Most *WATCHED!

Next :-

Macro
Micro 
and Supply.

Followed by:-*

*Finding Momentum
Maximizing profit
and Mitigating loss*


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## gartley

As a baseline to the above it helps if first: 
1/  Stockmarket  has had a crash wiping off 39% 
2) The stocks you are buying where pummeled in the process and where previously trading at much higher levels.

As these are probably once in 10 or 15 years events then it's highly unlikely these sorts of returns can consistently be made every year.


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## tech/a

gartley said:


> As a baseline to the above it helps if first:
> 1/  Stockmarket  has had a crash wiping off 39%
> 2) The stocks you are buying where pummeled in the process and where previously trading at much higher levels.
> 
> As these are probably once in 10 or 15 years events then it's highly unlikely these sorts of returns can consistently be made every year.




Damn secret’s out then!—-Macro


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## tech/a

Nothing stops a tidal wave

*Super Macro Economics.*

Think Global Financial Crisis.
Covid 19
World stimulus packages.

These move all markets and believe it or not you'll see signs of
the wave coming.

These rare outliers can do some of the greatest damage and provide some of the 
best opportunities for your trading and investments.

You need to be aware of the coming Earthquakes. Have a proactive interest in your investments.
Whatever profits you have are yours. *Minimizing open profit loss* is more important in my view than 
minimizing initial capital at risk losses.




*Macro Economics*

A rising tide floats all boats.

Think Government policy
Inflation
Deflation
Interest rates
Unemployment.
Taxation

All and more can have major impact on your trading and investments
Trade with the tide long or (short (indexes for me)).


*Micro Economics*

Strongest stock in the strongest sector
Strongest stock in an emerging sector.

Think individual company or sector decisions to increase demand 
Influence production costs
Distribution costs and increasing Market share and profitability.
Filling a need better than competition.

By lining up as many of these ducks as you can you are working *WITH* the market not against it.
*Discretionary traders* should be aware of what phase their market and investment is as viewed
in all of the above. For *BOTH* long and short opportunities-- Eyeing Risk all the time!! Liquidating a 
deep in profit long term hold to re purchase at a far lower price can be massively advantageous to
your portfolio. In *ALL* Economic shocks.
*Systematic Traders* who ignore the above will find they struggle to find a consistently profitable method 
or are for ever looking for the holy grail. Thinking that surely they have missed something---they have!
Building a long system which performs in well outlier situations will be one that can be liquidated during
shocks. One size *CAN'T* fit all




*Next 
SUPPLY*


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## tech/a

*Ok* -----Now that we know that the main drivers of any Market or stock generally are
We can get into the *MEAT of TRADING

SUPPLY*

Supply is the driver of price. In just about anything.
Too much supply and Price will stagnate at best and Fall at worst.
If supply withdraws the if in demand then buyers will pay more to purchase.
Its evident in Housing,Commodities,Indexes and of course the stock market.

Often we wont IMMEDIATELY know the driver but there will be a reason why 
Supply increases or supply withdraws. 

*** We need to be able to recognize with drawl of supply where buyers are happy to pay more
as early as possible so we can ride the increase in price.
*** We need to know (On various levels due to various holding time frames) when Supply increases
and is willing to accept lower and lower pricing---so that we can get off the bus with as much
profit as we can within the trading Plan and time frame we are involved in.

I have found that I can do this very consistently reading Volume and Price bars and patterns on Charts.

***All analysis can do is give us an* INDICATION* of possible future price action so we can *ANTICIPATE* it.
It is up to us to place ourselves at the least risk---if proven in correct with the maximum potential---if proven correct

So here is *MY* meat of trading
Indication of a sustained move can in the direction of which Im trading (or NOT) can come from a very wide range of 
sources. An Announcement, a disaster, a Gap in price ,An expansion in the range of price, A with drawl of Supply within a pattern,
an increase in supply in a breakout OR and up move, and so it goes on.

Im a visual guy I can see things particularly if repeated time and again automatically. I dont have to sit there and ponder for
minutes or hours over my decision---I see it its instant. If I cant see it and It hits---all of us are likely to miss it unless we are 
fortunate enough to preempt it.

I trade Various Time frames and use predominately two trading ways---Discretionary --Very short (Minutes at a few Hrs --Futures)
To a day or so more or less (stock) To longer term System trading --- (Which I will speak on later) for now the discretionary ideas Ill present for the basis of finding/entering and exiting stock in a number of systems I/we use (No I wont be disclosing them but a variant of Tech Trader in Radges book "Un Holy Grails" is one.

I want Momentum and I want it to continue NOW. If I think I have a strong indication and I buy I want it to move away from my buy price instantly -- I dont want it to stall and I definitely dont want it to reverse!!
I have no emotion--if it stalls or reverses it either move *my stop UP or Sell out *
Im no stranger to being off on my timing ---I can do something about that if Im trading Discretionary but if trading a system I have to ride it out according to my proven system rules.

So lets look at some examples of indications of Momentum and how we can anticipate it both entry and exit. Ill use* daily and weekly* but similar is true for All time frames. There are some nuances which go with very quick moves and looking at 5/15/60 min charts but I wont muddy the water--- 

Below is a running Commentary on ERA a past trade. *Only looking at how I read Momentum and Supply* through a couple of trades.
In 1 move------Im sure you'll see it as clearly as I did.












*NEXT *

More chart examples of Momentum /Supply/Indication and Anticipation.
In small caps,Mid caps and Blue caps.

*FOLLOWED BY*

Minimizing Risk
Position sizing
I want Proof!
Stops 
How I move stops--UP never down!!
Getting it right AND wrong!

Do you prefer full size charts or Thumb nails?


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## Austwide

Full size charts please, it allows me to quickly refer to previous charts


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## samuilk

I'm looking forward to your next post. I will re - read thread multiple times. Question which broker do you trade with?


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## qldfrog

tech/a said:


> *Ok* -----Now that we know that the main drivers of any Market or stock generally are
> We can get into the *MEAT of TRADING
> 
> SUPPLY*
> 
> Supply is the driver of price. In just about anything.
> Too much supply and Price will stagnate at best and Fall at worst.
> If supply withdraws the if in demand then buyers will pay more to purchase.
> Its evident in Housing,Commodities,Indexes and of course the stock market.
> 
> Often we wont IMMEDIATELY know the driver but there will be a reason why
> Supply increases or supply withdraws.
> 
> *** We need to be able to recognize with drawl of supply where buyers are happy to pay more
> as early as possible so we can ride the increase in price.
> *** We need to know (On various levels due to various holding time frames) when Supply increases
> and is willing to accept lower and lower pricing---so that we can get off the bus with as much
> profit as we can within the trading Plan and time frame we are involved in.
> 
> I have found that I can do this very consistently reading Volume and Price bars and patterns on Charts.
> 
> ***All analysis can do is give us an* INDICATION* of possible future price action so we can *ANTICIPATE* it.
> It is up to us to place ourselves at the least risk---if proven in correct with the maximum potential---if proven correct
> 
> So here is *MY* meat of trading
> Indication of a sustained move can in the direction of which Im trading (or NOT) can come from a very wide range of
> sources. An Announcement, a disaster, a Gap in price ,An expansion in the range of price, A with drawl of Supply within a pattern,
> an increase in supply in a breakout OR and up move, and so it goes on.
> 
> Im a visual guy I can see things particularly if repeated time and again automatically. I dont have to sit there and ponder for
> minutes or hours over my decision---I see it its instant. If I cant see it and It hits---all of us are likely to miss it unless we are
> fortunate enough to preempt it.
> 
> I trade Various Time frames and use predominately two trading ways---Discretionary --Very short (Minutes at a few Hrs --Futures)
> To a day or so more or less (stock) To longer term System trading --- (Which I will speak on later) for now the discretionary ideas Ill present for the basis of finding/entering and exiting stock in a number of systems I/we use (No I wont be disclosing them but a variant of Tech Trader in Radges book "Un Holy Grails" is one.
> 
> I want Momentum and I want it to continue NOW. If I think I have a strong indication and I buy I want it to move away from my buy price instantly -- I dont want it to stall and I definitely dont want it to reverse!!
> I have no emotion--if it stalls or reverses it either move *my stop UP or Sell out *
> Im no stranger to being off on my timing ---I can do something about that if Im trading Discretionary but if trading a system I have to ride it out according to my proven system rules.
> 
> So lets look at some examples of indications of Momentum and how we can anticipate it both entry and exit. Ill use* daily and weekly* but similar is true for All time frames. There are some nuances which go with very quick moves and looking at 5/15/60 min charts but I wont muddy the water---
> 
> Below is a running Commentary on ERA a past trade. *Only looking at how I read Momentum and Supply* through a couple of trades.
> In 1 move------Im sure you'll see it as clearly as I did.
> 
> View attachment 119667
> View attachment 119668
> View attachment 119669
> View attachment 119670
> View attachment 119671
> View attachment 119672
> View attachment 119673
> View attachment 119674
> View attachment 119675
> 
> 
> *NEXT *
> 
> More chart examples of Momentum /Supply/Indication and Anticipation.
> In small caps,Mid caps and Blue caps.
> 
> *FOLLOWED BY*
> 
> Minimizing Risk
> Position sizing
> I want Proof!
> Stops
> How I move stops--UP never down!!
> Getting it right AND wrong!
> 
> Do you prefer full size charts or Thumb nails?



Full size please,not easy on phone but so much better on the big screen.
Thanks again as i was actually working on a BO system.so far so good compared to your approach for entry


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## tech/a

samuilk said:


> I'm looking forward to your next post. I will re - read thread multiple times. Question which broker do you trade with?



Interactive Brokers ——IB


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## lindsayf

Hi Tech

Can you explain or reword this sentence pls?

“If supply withdraws the if in demand then buyers will pay more to purchase”


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## tech/a

*Charting* (The Ducks way)

Im looking for Extremes.
Reactions to Extremes
Testing of Extremes.
Patterns that form after an Extreme.

This is where *Opportunity* is found.


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## tech/a

lindsayf said:


> Hi Tech
> 
> Can you explain or reword this sentence pls?
> 
> “If supply withdraws ----- then---- if in demand buyers will pay more to purchase”




So If Holders of *anything* decide to keep their supply and not release it
to others then Buyers will offer more in the hope of purchase.


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## tech/a

Hmm I seem to have deleted a database so will miss this week while I clean up my mess.


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## Telamelo

tech/a said:


> So If Holders of *anything* decide to keep their supply and not release it
> to others then Buyers will offer more in the hope of purchase.



It's basically the market dynamics/market depth of buy vs sell ratio.. when seller's dissipate then the buyer's gain control (bullish meaning the bulls are in control so to speak) in paying up more for a given stock as demand increases and vice-versa.


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## qldfrog

Good luck for the data restore.can be a pain..


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## tech/a

Telamelo said:


> It's basically the market dynamics/market depth of buy vs sell ratio.. when seller's dissipate then the buyer's gain control (bullish meaning the bulls are in control so to speak) in paying up more for a given stock as demand increases and vice-versa.




This is standard thinking —- not my own.

I personally choose to look only at supply.
Demand can be massive but if supply is overwhelming then you won’t see it in 
price increases. 
I personally don’t believe bulls control anything.
Supply however again I personally believe controls everything 
if it withdraws then price rises 
if it appears then it can turn a 100% increase back to where it started 
in a session.

Look at gluts of ANYTHING —- Supply 
plenty off supply overwhelming demand sometimes crushing any value.
shortages are exactly the opposite. Can’t get it then demand must pay more for the limited
availability.

I again personally find it easier to trade around supply.
I’ve  seen massive demand crushed in 24 hrs by the emergence of supply at a price.

The constant fluctuations of supply develop visually on a chart. Leaving patterns and clues 
that we can anticipate future price action. We can see opportunities develop and disappear in front 
of us. 
Extremes ( of various magnitudes ) move markets. Again they can often be seen clearly on a chart before 
they are seen or heard of by the masses.

Back again when I get some charts.


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## qldfrog

tech/a said:


> This is standard thinking —- not my own.
> 
> I personally choose to look only at supply.
> Demand can be massive but if supply is overwhelming then you won’t see it in
> price increases.
> I personally don’t believe bulls control anything.
> Supply however again I personally believe controls everything
> if it withdraws then price rises
> if it appears then it can turn a 100% increase back to where it started
> in a session.
> 
> Look at gluts of ANYTHING —- Supply
> plenty off supply overwhelming demand sometimes crushing any value.
> shortages are exactly the opposite. Can’t get it then demand must pay more for the limited
> availability.
> 
> I again personally find it easier to trade around supply.
> I’ve  seen massive demand crushed in 24 hrs by the emergence of supply at a price.
> 
> The constant fluctuations of supply develop visually on a chart. Leaving patterns and clues
> that we can anticipate future price action. We can see opportunities develop and disappear in front
> of us.
> Extremes ( of various magnitudes ) move markets. Again they can often be seen clearly on a chart before
> they are seen or heard of by the masses.
> 
> Back again when I get some charts.



I understand that, but how do you get supply?
Volume is in a way representative but you could have millions of shares on offer, yet none exchanged and volume at 0
During the day, on bell direct, we can see figures of offers: nb of buy at different prices and sell at different prices, but nothing useable for system trading after the close.
Si my question is : do you use volume as a twisted shortcut to supply?


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## tech/a

Volume to me at least indicates the exchange of supply into demand.
If there is no movement yet buyers on one side and sellers on the other
and neither wish to meet in the middle then you won’t have anything that
indicates any opportunity.
That of course changes with new participants emerging or impatience  taking
hold.
It’s when extremes appear Eg no one wants to sell Or everyone wants to sell
that opportunities arise.

***So in some cases NO or Very little volume can be a very powerful indicator.
Its about context .
No volume CAN be an extreme in a certain chart pattern ***


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## jbocker

tech/a said:


> The constant fluctuations of supply develop visually on a chart. Leaving patterns and clues



Hi Tech. A question from the Dept of Dumb. I am trying to think where I can see supply. Questions are on the graphic. I appreciate that many factors together would be needed to determine supply but I am thinking momentum may be of use. Apologies if I am off the mark I am not a trader.


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## tech/a

Fantastic thanks for the charts
a great question which I will explain
with your own chart example.

However I’m off to lunch so will do later.

it’s all there —- the answers —- my take on the answers!
my aim is to make it as clear to everyone who is interested.

ponder this when looking at any chart 

let’s say 150000 people own a Ford car 
let’s say for any number of reasons the average price of a Ford 
increases 35% 
lots of those people will sell their fords and you’ll see lots of fords 
come on the market 
at sometime all those who think 35% is a good increase will hold
their fords along with the new buyers.
supply will dry up and if most of the buyers of fords have bought
then those left who wish to sell may accept less.

let’s say all of a sudden Holden’s become potentially more valuable
than Fords. Supply mat we’ll return with a vengeance as new holders and old exit at 
lower prices to liquidate into cash to buy Holden’s!

both will be seen on a chart 
supply during buying and supply during selling —-


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## ducati916

jbocker said:


> Hi Tech. A question from the Dept of Dumb. I am trying to think where I can see supply. Questions are on the graphic. I appreciate that many factors together would be needed to determine supply but I am thinking momentum may be of use. Apologies if I am off the mark I am not a trader.
> View attachment 120042




The answer is: units are more important. Think of it as total buying dollars as opposed to total selling dollars. 

The problem is that market depth is variable. In the US you can have hidden orders, partial orders showing, partial hidden etc. You could potentially have on that chart, a holder of 1M shares, wanting to sell, but not wanting to tip his hand, and not displaying any shares at all, but he may hit the bid of the 150K and exit 15% of his position, holding back the rest.

Now 'VOLUME' is something totally different.

Volume is a completed transaction. For every buyer there has been a seller. What does that tell you? Only in the context of the additional information of price, do you receive that further information.

Average volume will give you some liquidity information, but even that has to be taken with a grain of salt. Liquidity dries up in market crashes.

I personally, don't look at volume at all. If I was, I'd be more interested in this type of volume, which at least conveys additional information:




jog on
duc


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## jbocker

Thanks Duc @ducati916. I am not familiar with the _side_ bars on the chart I would guess they show proportion between buy (green) and Sell (red) against the price at that bracket. But I cannot figure the magnitude - what drives the length of the bar.
I see you mention hidden  orders in US. Does that exist on ASX orders , I am wondering if conditional orders are visible

Hope lunch is / was great @tech/a

Thanks for sharing guys. Enjoying the discussion .


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## Telamelo

Sorry to ask/labour on about supply but how do you tell then from any given stock chart  - is it where the biggest volume occurs say at a level of resistance? that share price retraces from etc.


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## ducati916

jbocker said:


> Thanks Duc @ducati916. I am not familiar with the _side_ bars on the chart I would guess they show proportion between buy (green) and Sell (red) against the price at that bracket. But I cannot figure the magnitude - what drives the length of the bar.
> I see you mention hidden  orders in US. Does that exist on ASX orders , I am wondering if conditional orders are visible
> 
> Hope lunch is / was great @tech/a
> 
> Thanks for sharing guys. Enjoying the discussion .





So it is defined as:








jog on
duc


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## qldfrog

ducati916 said:


> So it is defined as:
> 
> View attachment 120056
> 
> 
> View attachment 120054
> View attachment 120055
> 
> 
> jog on
> duc



But that supply demand is also twisted by conditional orders so you might have huge demand or supply appearing within ms of a price threshold, especially so in the age of bots and qants 
That conditional order ussue might be related to your realms micro, asx 100 i assume will  have different behaviour?
I like Mr @tech/a and understand how to do it when live trading, but hitting a wall when looking at a systematic daily approach running at 8pm in the evening...
And by the way, very interesting inputs from all here many thanks


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## over9k

I'll see if I can simplify it for you guys (not trying to take over duck's thread or anything):

Think of volume like a yardstick/measure of the aggregate market's INTEREST in a stock (how interested people are in it, not interest as a yield). So if volume spikes (meaning lots of people are buying & selling it), you want to be thinking about what has happened to get the market interested in that particular stock. Remember, people might have gotten very interested in buying it, very interested in selling it, or both simultaneously. Again, it's the cause of said interest in buying and/or selling that you want to be thinking about when deciding if the market's responding "correctly" or not. To put it another way, look at what's happening and ask yourself WHY it's occurring. There's no shortage of traders on this forum (myself included) that have jumped the gun (acted too quickly) on a hype train and gotten stung for it for example.

This then dovetails into the concept of liquidity, which I presume duck is planning to cover at some point so will obviously let him do that on account of this being his thread


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## Smurf1976

jbocker said:


> I see you mention hidden orders in US. Does that exist on ASX orders



Don't want to tread on Tech's toes in his thread but from personal experience, I've certainly placed orders on less liquid stocks at a price where there's no order visible on the other side (buy / sell) and had them immediately filled.

How that works in a technical (computing) detail I've no idea, Tech can probably explain that one far better than me, but I've seen it happen too many times to be coincidental indeed in some cases I've actively tried to work out exactly where those orders are in terms of price limits.


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## tech/a

When reading volume we are interested in the momentum of the trade.
we need  4 components 

RANGE
POSITION OF CLOSE AND OPENS
PATTERN
VOLUME TRADED

most things on their own have little value 

reading all 4 changes the face of a chart from a graphical representation of 
market constituents to a short story on the relationship those constituents have 
with the ticker being traded —- at all timeframes.

I take very little notice of market depth trades can and are withdrawn or added at the click
of a mouse. The real trading is at Market and a tick above and below it.The story develops
Often told in chapters in smaller timeframes.

The more liquid the trading the shorter the timeframe that can be used to build the story.

Smurf 
the answer to your question is pretty clear 
your bid or ask is seen by a trader not placing an order in the market but at your offer.


----------



## qldfrog

Smurf1976 said:


> Don't want to tread on Tech's toes in his thread but from personal experience, I've certainly placed orders on less liquid stocks at a price where there's no order visible on the other side (buy / sell) and had them immediately filled.
> 
> How that works in a technical (computing) detail I've no idea, Tech can probably explain that one far better than me, but I've seen it happen too many times to be coincidental indeed in some cases I've actively tried to work out exactly where those orders are in terms of price limits.



And also related is the presence of orders as scaling up or down levels
Very small amounts at levels just below /above current price that are ramping up/down price to i assume trigger conditional orders or even trigger margin loan "calls"


----------



## ducati916

tech/a said:


> When reading volume we are interested in the momentum of the trade.
> we need  4 components
> 
> RANGE
> POSITION OF CLOSE AND OPENS
> PATTERN
> VOLUME TRADED
> 
> most things on their own have little value
> 
> reading all 4 changes the face of a chart from a graphical representation of
> market constituents to a short story on the relationship those constituents have
> with the ticker being traded —- at all timeframes.
> 
> 
> 
> The more liquid the trading the shorter the timeframe that can be used to build the story.





So TSLA: 15M-30M shares/day traded




Enough bars?

jog on
duc


----------



## tech/a

ducati916 said:


> So TSLA: 15M-30M shares/day traded
> 
> View attachment 120082
> 
> 
> Enough bars?
> 
> jog on
> duc



In the context of the day —-yes
Third last bar seems exhaustive 
Wide range and high volume saw the very common inside bar occur
Then a test of the low which was rejected 

that’s about all I can tell from what you’ve posted


----------



## tech/a

jbocker said:


> Hi Tech. A question from the Dept of Dumb. I am trying to think where I can see supply. Questions are on the graphic. I appreciate that many factors together would be needed to determine supply but I am thinking momentum may be of use. Apologies if I am off the mark I am not a trader.
> View attachment 120042




*JB

I want to use your chart as an example.*

For me its ALL about momentum. Im constantly looking for it.
I want to be able to see the potential in build up and I want to be
able to recognize it as soon as I can. (The potential anyway).
I can and do have false starts and Ill sacrifice a bit in doing so.

Ive marked up your chart with the important markers on the chart.
Then A chart of the Trades I would have taken if trading it based on
my own Discretionary Methodology.

Firstly to the buy and sell ladder.
I dont look at pre loaded depth as any indicator as to Demand OR Supply
*OTHER than* the open and Closing Auction.

The real action plays out at Market. Which answers Smurphies Question



> I've certainly placed orders on less liquid stocks at a price where there's no order visible on the other side (buy / sell) and had them immediately filled.




I often do the same thing Bid 22 c Sell 28 c Ill place a bid at 23 c and often be filled.

But while doing this and trading it I'm forever looking at ways of minimizing risk.
Constantly shuffling Initial stops whether its rising OR falling* (Only ever UP)* with
my number one Goal to get to Break even *(B/E)* and when momentum bites
Shuffling Trailing stops to lock in profit.

More about this later as its its own topic.

I dont know what the ticker was *JB* but Id still be on it at the last Bar and be looking to
increase my position on that day.







Here is how I would trade and be trading this chart.




The Supply conundrum is Answered in the next post.


----------



## tech/a

*** You say Momentum occurs when supply withdraws --YET-- If volume increases doesn't that mean that Supply is evident***

Yes most certainly
Supply appears at higher prices as it is withdrawn from higher prices---
demand often wont chase it.
If it does as it did in the Last bar on the chart it WILL re appear.( Supply in the form of volume)
More will be placed on offer from long term holders and short term speculators.

Balance--In-Balance---Balance---In-Balance.

Balance--no one wants to sell at these prices--no one wants to buy at these prices.
In-Balance---Happy to buy higher prices---Happy to sell at higher prices.

We need to be experts at reading In Balance for Potential *AND* Profit.

*Is the picture Building?*


----------



## jbocker

tech/a said:


> *Is the picture Building?*



The picture is building of how little I know. Thank you for taking the time to explain. The ticker is SPL Starpharma. I have been watching this stock (on fundamentals) for a few years now but not as a trader analyst (never trained in it). Your analysis certainly increases my interest (curiosity). I appreciate that good and bad news drives markets and I will try to update the chart with releases over that same period.
 I might look at some of my other holdings and attempt some 'analysis' albeit it will be _verrry_ crude.


----------



## vharik831

tech/a said:


> *JB
> 
> I want to use your chart as an example.*
> 
> For me its ALL about momentum. Im constantly looking for it.
> I want to be able to see the potential in build up and I want to be
> able to recognize it as soon as I can. (The potential anyway).
> I can and do have false starts and Ill sacrifice a bit in doing so.
> 
> Ive marked up your chart with the important markers on the chart.
> Then A chart of the Trades I would have taken if trading it based on
> my own Discretionary Methodology.
> 
> Firstly to the buy and sell ladder.
> I dont look at pre loaded depth as any indicator as to Demand OR Supply
> *OTHER than* the open and Closing Auction.
> 
> The real action plays out at Market. Which answers Smurphies Question
> 
> 
> 
> I often do the same thing Bid 22 c Sell 28 c Ill place a bid at 23 c and often be filled.
> 
> But while doing this and trading it I'm forever looking at ways of minimizing risk.
> Constantly shuffling Initial stops whether its rising OR falling* (Only ever UP)* with
> my number one Goal to get to Break even *(B/E)* and when momentum bites
> Shuffling Trailing stops to lock in profit.
> 
> More about this later as its its own topic.
> 
> I dont know what the ticker was *JB* but Id still be on it at the last Bar and be looking to
> increase my position on that day.
> 
> 
> View attachment 120403
> 
> 
> 
> 
> Here is how I would trade and be trading this chart.
> 
> View attachment 120402
> 
> 
> The Supply conundrum is Answered in the next post.



Hi Tech,

Thank you for sharing the knowledge.

Q on the second chart marked with potential trades - 1, 2 and 3, did not get filled. Do you leave the orders open for one day only? Also, if the second day has higher volume, but a small range bar, would you keep the order open for the next day as well, until you see a drop in volume?

I am a fully systematic trader, but this thread has been so interesting that I want to try these out now as a discretionary trader.

Thanks
Hari


----------



## tech/a

For me I want momentum to be proven 
If my analysis anticipates momentum to the degree that I’ll place 
a stop limit buy and it doesn’t trigger then I’ll remove the order and place the 
stock on my watchlist. Every now and then I’ll get triggered only to see a close below my
stop limit order. I’ll then move my stop UP if it pulls back more than 50% of the previous bar I’ll 
exit This is all to minimise risk and diminish accumulated risk ratios.

Trade management which I’ll also cover .

ive also traded a great deal systematically and have an opinion.
which I’ll share later.I know you’ll understand my comments.


----------



## ducati916

tech/a said:


> *** You say Momentum occurs when supply withdraws --YET-- If volume increases doesn't that mean that Supply is evident***
> 
> Yes most certainly
> Supply appears at higher prices as it is withdrawn from higher prices---
> demand often wont chase it.
> If it does as it did in the Last bar on the chart it WILL re appear.( Supply in the form of volume)
> More will be placed on offer from long term holders and short term speculators.
> 
> Balance--In-Balance---Balance---In-Balance.
> 
> Balance--no one wants to sell at these prices--no one wants to buy at these prices.
> In-Balance---Happy to buy higher prices---Happy to sell at higher prices.
> 
> We need to be experts at reading In Balance for Potential *AND* Profit.
> 
> *Is the picture Building?*





No not really.

Supply +/- is fixed. A company has a float of X shares. Yes they can fluctuate, new shares issued, old shares bought and placed as Treasury shares, but at any given point in time supply is fixed to the total shares on offer.

What is not fixed is demand. While demand is never infinite, neither is it fixed.

When price runs, it is not a lack of supply (as by definition supply is fixed) it is an increase in demand at the marginal price that increases. So many systems/algorithms/discretionary/etc are triggered by a changing (volatile) price.

Only in commodities can you have a fluctuating supply: bad harvest, no wheat, prices increase on reduced supply. If that is coupled to an increased demand for wheat, then prices tend to explode.

jog on
duc


----------



## tech/a

Happy to disagree duc.

In fact I dont expect you or quite a few others to agree.

The way I look at the no Bullsh*t approach is vastly different to many. Fantastic.
Simplicity 
Going in my direction I want to have an indication that its going to happen or 
continue.
Stalling or reversing I want to have an indication that its going to happen or going to continue.
Manage Risk 
Increase R/R

Works for me .

I look at it from *purely* a supply perspective.
And no I dont want to debate it.


----------



## vharik831

Hi Tech,

I made an attempt to create a watchlist (attached) using the new found knowledge!
While scanning through the charts, i found an interesting chart, as attached. I have put the comments on the charts.

My question is specifically related to the first large volume breakout, which failed. I don't see any issues in taking that trade. 
Just wanted to see how you analyze the chart and if I am on the right track.







Regards,
Hari


----------



## tech/a

Hari

I would have only traded the First High Volume bar shown.
It failed but would have given a small loss. One of those that trigger then 
collapse from Heavy supply. The loss would have been less than my initial Risk.
Due to the Trade management rules I use.


----------



## vharik831

tech/a said:


> Hari
> 
> I would have only traded the First High Volume bar shown.
> It failed but would have given a small loss. One of those that trigger then
> collapse from Heavy supply. The loss would have been less than my initial Risk.
> Due to the Trade management rules I use.



Great. Thanks. Any reasons for not trading the second high volume bar? Is it due to the increasing volume and falling price preceding the high volume bar?


----------



## tech/a

If there is a testing of a high or low (if short) in Daily timeframes I wait for that test.
Unless there is a glaring cause.
Not so strict in 15 min timeframes.


----------



## tech/a

tech/a said:


> If there is a testing of a high or low (if short) in Daily timeframes I wait for that test.
> Unless there is a glaring cause.
> Not so strict in 15 min timeframes.



 My reasoning is that there will be those trapped in the initial breakout trade who will sell
as close as they can yo their cost price. This over head resistance isn't evident in the first 
instance of any breakout of volume or Price range.
The deeper the pull back the more this tends to be an issue.
Will watch KAU and see how it pans.

As I type it is 48.5c with high volume so supply is evident whether it will withdraw as the high of 53.5c
is tested is yet to be seen.-- It often does.
If it blasts through and closes above then that would indicate supply is not flooding in at these levels.
Likely to be an inside day tomorrow.


----------



## frugal.rock

tech/a said:


> Likely to be an inside day tomorrow.



Can you please explain that term?

Have heard you and @barney use that term, but I take it it's nothing to do with the weather forecast and I thought others following might like to know as well.
Thanks


----------



## Wilham

frugal.rock said:


> Can you please explain that term?
> 
> Have heard you and @barney use that term, but I take it it's nothing to do with the weather forecast and I thought others following might like to know as well.
> Thanks



Hey frugal, I think they are referring to this.


----------



## frugal.rock

Thanks @Wilham
Didn't know it was an official term... now that's the 2nd thing I have learnt today. On a roll


----------



## Wilham

frugal.rock said:


> Thanks @Wilham
> Didn't know it was an official term... now that's the 2nd thing I have learnt today. On a roll



😅 Careful, I've heard 3 new things can be dangerous


----------



## Beaches

ducati916 said:


> No not really.
> 
> Supply +/- is fixed. A company has a float of X shares. Yes they can fluctuate, new shares issued, old shares bought and placed as Treasury shares, but at any given point in time supply is fixed to the total shares on offer.
> 
> What is not fixed is demand. While demand is never infinite, neither is it fixed.
> 
> When price runs, it is not a lack of supply (as by definition supply is fixed) it is an increase in demand at the marginal price that increases. So many systems/algorithms/discretionary/etc are triggered by a changing (volatile) price.
> 
> Only in commodities can you have a fluctuating supply: bad harvest, no wheat, prices increase on reduced supply. If that is coupled to an increased demand for wheat, then prices tend to explode.
> 
> jog on
> duc






tech/a said:


> Happy to disagree duc.
> 
> In fact I dont expect you or quite a few others to agree.
> 
> The way I look at the no Bullsh*t approach is vastly different to many. Fantastic.
> Simplicity
> Going in my direction I want to have an indication that its going to happen or
> continue.
> Stalling or reversing I want to have an indication that its going to happen or going to continue.
> Manage Risk
> Increase R/R
> 
> Works for me .
> 
> I look at it from *purely* a supply perspective.
> And no I dont want to debate it.




I'm not sure that Duc and Tech are disagreeing except in the use of the word 'Supply' and what it reffers to.

This is my understanding of what each is referring to when they use the word 'Supply'.

It appears Duc is referring to the overall shares available to be traded in a company. He is correct in saying this does not increase or decrease outside of additional shares being issued as in a cap raise

Conversly, Tech's use of the work Supply is referring to the amount of shares being offered for sale by willing sellers at any given time. Which will fluctuate all the time.

As an example;
Company XYZ may have 1,000,000 share that are able to be traded. This is the overall supply Duc is referring to and wont change.
Of those 1mil shares, many will be tied up in escrow, institutions, long term holders, directors and the like that generally are not offering them for sale. These shares will often be held through thick and thin regardless of what the share price does.

So from the 1mil shares available to be tradedin XYZ, lets say 400k maybe tied as mentioned above up and not generally offerd to the market.

The other $600k are the shares that are treaded from time to time by all sorts of holders. This is the suppply that Tech is reffering to when he talks about the amount of supply. The 600k that will get traded from time to time. The fluctuating supply he is referring to is how much of that 600k is curently being offered for sale at the current price, and as the price decreases or increases.

I welcome Duc or Tech  to correct me if my assumption is wrong.


----------



## barney

Wilham said:


> 😅 Careful, I've heard 3 new things can be dangerous



Learning 3 is ok ..... If you smoke or drink 3 however, normal safety standards may be compromised!  

ps Just for the record, I don't smoke anything! ... Don't want people assuming I'm a weed head🥴

pps Interesting Thread as always @tech/a


----------



## frugal.rock

A different Supply...sorry, off topic


----------



## barney

Beaches said:


> I'm not sure that Duc and Tech are disagreeing except in the use of the word 'Supply' and what it reffers to.
> I welcome Duc or Tech  to correct me if my assumption is wrong.





Hi @Beaches    Appreciate your suggestion as I was contemplating adding my 1.5 cents worth (2 cents less GST etc.) to try and create some of (what I would expect would be) fantastic banter between the lads!😊

Supply and Demand in the Market Depth ... What a topic!!

Anyway, I know @tech/a said "not up for debate" (on this thread), so in respect of that, perhaps Tech or @ducati916 (or even I) may be happy to initiate a separate Thread, where the slings and arrows of outrageous S and D can be debated ad infinitum??

Or not??🥸😊


----------



## tech/a

Beaches said:


> I'm not sure that Duc and Tech are disagreeing except in the use of the word 'Supply' and what it reffers to.
> 
> This is my understanding of what each is referring to when they use the word 'Supply'.
> 
> It appears Duc is referring to the overall shares available to be traded in a company. He is correct in saying this does not increase or decrease outside of additional shares being issued as in a cap raise
> 
> Conversly, Tech's use of the work Supply is referring to the amount of shares being offered for sale by willing sellers at any given time. Which will fluctuate all the time.
> 
> As an example;
> Company XYZ may have 1,000,000 share that are able to be traded. This is the overall supply Duc is referring to and wont change.
> Of those 1mil shares, many will be tied up in escrow, institutions, long term holders, directors and the like that generally are not offering them for sale. These shares will often be held through thick and thin regardless of what the share price does.
> 
> So from the 1mil shares available to be tradedin XYZ, lets say 400k maybe tied as mentioned above up and not generally offerd to the market.
> 
> The other $600k are the shares that are treaded from time to time by all sorts of holders. This is the suppply that Tech is reffering to when he talks about the amount of supply. The 600k that will get traded from time to time. The fluctuating supply he is referring to is how much of that 600k is curently being offered for sale at the current price, and as the price decreases or increases.
> 
> I welcome Duc or Tech  to correct me if my assumption is wrong.




I get it and I think most also get it. Thanks Beaches.

Im attempting to keep this thread free of complication.
Complication is what the Snake oil salesmen excel in.
If its not complicated then its too good to be true.

I have a lot of time for Duc but know he loves debate.
He knows exactly what I mean.
That's *NOT* what this thread is about. 
Its how I've been long term profitable and how you can too.

I want to remove all of that stuff you *DON'T NEED TO KNOW*
Its ok if you want to delve into it but you* DON'T NEED TO KNOW*
90% of Bullsh*t out there.


----------



## tech/a

barney said:


> Supply and Demand in the Market Depth



Will be a topic as in how I use it (The Ladder) with Very fast volatile stocks.
Other than that The real action takes place at market I rarely take any notice of Depth.


----------



## tech/a

On Inside days.

It is very common for Wide range days with high volume to be followed by an inside day.
Th wider the range of the bar (Inside) and the lower it closes the more likely Price action will
slow and *NOT* take out the high anytime soon. Smaller inside bars within the top quartile of the wide range bar can be very strong continuation indicators.

Note this is OFTEN the case with Wide range bars with average volume as well. 




Here are some examples of continuations and reversals in Bar analysis.
Of course like all forms of analysis they *INDICATE* strength or weakness.


----------



## barney

tech/a said:


> Will be a topic as in how I use it (The Ladder) with Very fast volatile stocks.
> Other than that The real action takes place at market I rarely take any notice of Depth.



Yep, absolutely.  At market is where the bulk of the "intention" is being displayed.

Deciphering the intention on the fly is not always easy of course  

Consistent short term Traders are a rare breed in my experience.  Personally I'm pretty average ST although getting better.

I went back to "slow motion" trading about 3-4 years ago for that reason. (Very good decision)

As Dirty Harry said, "A man needs to know his limitations", lol.   

The Thread is a nice "give back" of your own personal experience Tech. Cheers for that


----------



## tech/a

I have another for you Barney

“ We all rise to our level of incompetence “


----------



## barney

tech/a said:


> I have another for you Barney
> 
> “ We all rise to our level of incompetence “




Indeed Tech, lol. It is a wonderfully  inciteful and humbling principle. 

Personally I am still no where near as incompetent as I think I can/could be.😌

ps when I said above ... Supply and Demand within the Market Depth

I meant/should have said S + D within the Order Flow .... big difference of course!


----------



## vharik831

Hi Tech,

Hope you don't mind commenting on the charts I post. Please let me know if you want me to take this to another thread.
Am I on the right track with the two - GLL and NRX based on your posts above on range and momentum?






Thanks,
Hari


----------



## tech/a

Hari (I started typing this 1 hr ago).

I've actually Spoken to Joe about the flow of the thread.
Currently have decided to leave things as they are but once I've finished
Will clean up the Thread so that the Message isn't lost for those in the future
who use it.

To the charts

GLL is on a watchlist which triggered a buy yesterday which I didn't take.
GLL is testing the high so will be interesting Id expect a retreat but if it powers through.
Off to the races. (As I type its doing as expected).

NRX 
Pretty clear that there was and is Supply finishing off its highs. So again a pull back or 
blast through ---This is not a set up I would consider by the way but a good exercise
in Range Volume and Pattern ---As I checked just now it is also behaving as expected.

Good questions and charts!


----------



## ducati916

Beaches said:


> I'm not sure that Duc and Tech are disagreeing except in the use of the word 'Supply' and what it reffers to.
> 
> This is my understanding of what each is referring to when they use the word 'Supply'.
> 
> 1. It appears Duc is referring to the overall shares available to be traded in a company. He is correct in saying this does not increase or decrease outside of additional shares being issued as in a cap raise
> 
> 2. Conversly, Tech's use of the work Supply is referring to the amount of shares being offered for sale by willing sellers at any given time. Which will fluctuate all the time.
> 
> As an example;
> Company XYZ may have 1,000,000 share that are able to be traded. This is the overall supply Duc is referring to and wont change.
> Of those 1mil shares, many will be tied up in escrow, institutions, long term holders, directors and the like that generally are not offering them for sale. These shares will often be held through thick and thin regardless of what the share price does.
> 
> So from the 1mil shares available to be tradedin XYZ, lets say 400k maybe tied as mentioned above up and not generally offerd to the market.
> 
> The other $600k are the shares that are treaded from time to time by all sorts of holders. This is the suppply that Tech is reffering to when he talks about the amount of supply. The 600k that will get traded from time to time. The fluctuating supply he is referring to is how much of that 600k is curently being offered for sale at the current price, and as the price decreases or increases.
> 
> I welcome Duc or Tech  to correct me if my assumption is wrong.




1. Correct.

2. Again, correct.

The issue is that if at the margin the volume (supply) of shares varies and is subject to change, what causes that change in supply?

It can only be that the volume of buyers (demand) at the margin increases. We saw exactly this issue play out it GME recently. GME had X supply of shares. Price kept moving higher and higher as buyers (demand) exceeded the marginal supply, until we ran out of demand. Demand was driven significantly by short sales exceeding total supply of shares. So we did have in addition, a true supply issue.

Supply was a constant in total. It varied at the margin.

Whereas in the futures markets for commodities, we have almost the opposite. Demand for commodities in the aggregate is fairly stable. Demand may/will increase over time as economies grow, but this is usually gradual. Supply is harder to predict, particularly in foodstuffs/grains/etc. Planting/weather/prices may all impact supply in the short term, in the face of a fairly predictable demand. This will then drive an increase in price.

Returning to stocks and market depth, which is the balance of supply/demand at the margin. The following 2 indicators are useful in determining the balance between the 2 variables:








When day trading, you buy/sell the extremes. They can be adapted for swing trading.

In summary, the issue between us is likely only a semantics issue. As such, the reading/interpretation of volume is an area that I know very little as I do not use volume at all.

jog on
duc


----------



## vharik831

Thanks for your analysis on my previous charts. Based on yesterday exploration, had a couple of questions on the below - 

*RAC *- Yesterdays bar made a new high on volume. However, it did not close above the previous high. Do you see this as a valid setup to take the trade on a trade above the yesterdays high?

*KGL *- There is a pattern. Breakout and pullback to the breakout, before making another high. Do you see the probability of patterns repeating on the same charts? However, this was a strong close at the high of the bar.

Appreciate your comments. 





Thanks!
Hari


----------



## tech/a

Hari

Needs a little more time to reply than I have right now.
Will get to it this week.


----------



## vharik831

No problem!

Looks like this approach also keeps you out of market on days like this. I could only get a couple of symbols in the scan, as against a whole bunch yesterday and day before. 

Most of the breakouts since the past couple of days, that I was following retraced and closed inside the range or below the previous highs.


----------



## tech/a

Hope to get a bit of time soon.

Carrying on from an intro into Finding Momentum'
Yet to come More ways of anticipating Momentum 
--then spotting slowing or reversal of Momentum
After these----

*Next*

(1) Portfolio Trading or fewer stocks?
(2) Discretionary or Systematic?

*Then *

(1) Building and managing a watch list.
(2) Some ways to manage trades.
(3) Maximizing bang for Buck--regardless of
capital base encompassing *RISK* and The continual
battle with your R/R.


----------



## tech/a

ducati916 said:


> What caught my eye was: you need to accept volatility. Well yes you can or you can directly trade vol. That is what I do. I am indifferent to market direction. I trade vol. and price. Price in either direction, but what I seek primarily is high vol. and crazy moves. So vol. is an opportunity to build a trading strategy, rather than something to be accepted or endured.






ducati916 said:


> As such, the reading/interpretation of volume is an area that I know very little as I do not use volume at all.




errrr huh???


----------



## ducati916

tech/a said:


> errrr huh???





Vol(atility).

jog on
duc


----------



## tech/a

ducati916 said:


> Vol(atility).
> 
> jog on
> duc



Ohh IC

Duc

Can you define for me 

(1) Is the volatility you look for over a period?
(2) How do you determine when enough is enough (volatility)?
(3) How do you know when the volatility has ceased to a point you cannot benefit?
(4) Is this (your approach) Systematic or Discretionary ?
(5) Can you define (or how would you)-- edges to volatility extremes?
(6) Limited to Stocks or Commodities/Indexes where you can trade long and short?

I note Volatility tends to be contagious. Would you agree.


----------



## ducati916

tech/a said:


> Ohh IC
> 
> Duc
> 
> Can you define for me
> 
> (1) Is the volatility you look for over a period?
> (2) How do you determine when enough is enough (volatility)?
> (3) How do you know when the volatility has ceased to a point you cannot benefit?
> (4) Is this (your approach) Systematic or Discretionary ?
> (5) Can you define (or how would you)-- edges to volatility extremes?
> (6) Limited to Stocks or Commodities/Indexes where you can trade long and short?
> 
> I note Volatility tends to be contagious. Would you agree.





1. Yes, I prefer longer periods to shorter periods, but that is a personal thing, it is not required.
2. There can never be too much vol. There can definitely be too little. This is the risk. Flat, zero movement.
3. When everything is flat (no movement) and/or a tight prolonged trading range that falls within your (profitable) rebalance.
4. Both. You can use a model to rebalance (BS as an example) or you can override your model and use your experience/best guess.
5. The VIX gives a pretty good model to follow re. extremes.
6.  Yes.


Volatility has a number of very useful characteristics. It has a top bound (unlike price which has no limit) although every now and then we get a slightly higher reading and a non-negative lower bound. Within that range, vol. is mean reverting. Vol. once it reaches an extreme will mean revert.

Obviously, this is a very useful characteristic for traders of vol. and of any trading endeavour.

jog on
duc


----------



## tech/a

*So The No Bullsh*t *

Simplistic explanation is to Find opportunities to identify Momentum 
Place yourself in the position with the lowest risk to take advantage of
it and hop on for the ride. Forever on the look out to minimize risk to
your open profit.---In doing so you-ll maximize your R/R.

 In My view I can see opportunity here where momentum can be seen in a great number of areas including Fridays bar.
Low risk opportunities abound on the chart. So to is a clear example of what we want to find.
APT is a freak example but there are MANY more. You dont need the complete move there were plenty of opportunities 
in this chart to increase your capital in this trade by 50%.




Here is another one 





For now Im hoping that there is enough to show Momentum
how you can spot it even if not at its very beginning and the
characteristics to look for when it slows or leaves us and changes
direction.
This opens up questions ones I have pondered and have changed my 
longer term trading approach.


*(1) Portfolio Trading or fewer stocks?
(2) Discretionary or Systematic?*


----------



## tech/a

Just before I get on to Portfolio or Discretionary trading.

Remember It takes only *ONE* opportunity to be life changing.
Never stop looking for opportunities
Never stop taking up opportunity.

Trading/Investing/Property/Business/Personal life/Occupation


----------



## tech/a

*Discretionary or Systematic Trading/Investing*

Done a lot of both --- The following is my opinion and it may not be yours.

Systematic trading (to me) is a specific set of Conditions and Parameters run over a data set
in the hope of finding a repeatable correlations in the data along with Risk controls
to find a profitable,repeatable rules based trading method. This is done both Fundamentally
by some and often by the use of computer software to develop systems.

I think at some stage in every traders journey they should trade a Systematic method that
has an edge---look until you find one. Currently that edge need only be higher than bank 
interest and most managed funds (5-12%). I can tell you it can be done. 
If you want a free one Tech Trader is published in Radges Book "Un Holy Grails" 
Page 107 from Memory.

*Systematic or Mechanical Trading*

Formulating a trading plan based around a set of conditions and parameters Fundamentally or 
Technically with or without Risk parameters and applying it to a data set. (Our Universe) 
We are looking to find repeating conditions satisfied by our parameters that give us a result that 
in trading or investing shows a clear edge over random Entry/Exit.

Right now we only need to out perform Bank interest and Most Managed funds (Around 2-12%)
My experience is that very good systems return 15-50% (50% Being the best I've seen).

For me the obvious advantage is having a tested plan which when tested on past data shows
a probable similar out come on current data. You are left with a blueprint which you can compare
to your live results to see if your Over performing  Under performing or BROKEN.

Most systems preform extremely well for the Market conditions they are designed for and the best 
I've seen do well on very limited universes which can be traded long and short. Market conditions
DO CHANGE and systems can and do break. Long only systems work brilliantly in Bull Markets and
poorly in flat and Bear Markets.

The drawbacks for me are.
The obvious edge we want is to stay in trades which are trending in our direction. When you have 
a set of conditions to satisfy often for both Entry and Exit there is often a lot of time spent in trades
which have satisfied one (Entry) and not the others (Exit or Stops,Initial or Trailing). Hence there is
a great deal of opportunity cost involved in Systematic trading while we sit in trades doing nothing.
Time stops can be designed.

Often Universes and corresponding datasets are large.
Large numbers of stock held in a portfolio will dilute risk but will also
dilute reward as not all will be running profits at the one time.

I have to wait for my trades to satisfy my inputs even though I may think (or know) it is not wise. 
Blind faith.

I do trade Systematic portfolios. The best are those that identify parameters and conditions which repeat
in a number of datasets that we cant/dont see. These are edges that we do not readily identify with.
The big benefit is that Systematic trading is less time consuming. Relatively maintenance free. 
and if you get it right plain BORING.

*Discretionary Trading*

Here we have the ability to apply any number of conditions and parameters on trades. I can work in a number 
of time frames at once and can constantly work on my Return on Capital and Risk.

To me Discretionary trading is more about managing what we do when we are* WRONG* than getting it right.
I can very quickly see if my analysis for entry is WRONG
I can see quickly if there is an opportunity to load up a position for maximum return.
I can see if my Initial Stop (which determines initial risk) is likely to get hit and do something about it rather than watch it get hit!
I can see if my profit is likely to be severely eroded if I continue to hold.
I can see quickly if I need to reenter a trade that I left prematurely.
I can move to break even and sleep! or Go to a meeting.
I can do something when Im *WRONG* and that's* A OFTEN !*
I can concentrate on a few prospects and minimize opportunity cost.
*I like being wrong* it means I can do something about it and have another chance of getting it right.


But most of all --* I CAN INCREASE MY REWARD TO RISK.*
By constantly working on my initial risk and initial loss amounts 
AND
Maximizing profit by minimizing open profit loss.

Its here where the big return on risk and capital comes I know of a discretionary
trading method which is up 520% since September.
Another which is up 350% over 4 years and another 450% over a similar period.
So discretionary trading methods dont need to be over Hours or Minutes but can 
be longer term.

*NEXT*

*RISK *
Initial and Capital Risk in Trades. How I work on these constantly in my discretionary trading.


----------



## ducati916

tech/a said:


> 1. To me Discretionary trading is more about managing what we do when we are* WRONG* than getting it right.
> 2. I can very quickly see if my analysis for entry is WRONG
> 3. I can see quickly if there is an opportunity to load up a position for maximum return.
> 4. I can see if my Initial Stop (which determines initial risk) is likely to get hit and do something about it rather than watch it get hit!
> 5. I can see if my profit is likely to be severely eroded if I continue to hold.
> 6. I can see quickly if I need to reenter a trade that I left prematurely.
> 7. I can move to break even and sleep! or Go to a meeting.
> 8. I can do something when Im *WRONG* and that's* A OFTEN !*
> 9. I can concentrate on a few prospects and minimize opportunity cost.
> *10. I like being wrong* it means I can do something about it and have another chance of getting it right.





1. Agree. And what that actually means in practice is salvaging losing trades. For example adding an Options leg or a paired trade, etc. to the trade in question to change it from what is was, to something else.

2. If you are setting some form of stop (at say a resistance/support level) or maximum dollar loss, etc. yes, you'll be provided quite quick feedback. That is not necessarily the same as 'analysis', that is simply a timing or entry issue.

3. Yes, but, it can still turn to custard. Experience in discretionary trading is the big differentiator from mechanical trading. Novices, simply by definition lack this 'skill'.

4. Again, experience. Second, it really depends on how you set your SL. A SL set re. risk, may not be the accurate placement in the market re. support/resistance etc.

5/6/. Again, experience (often a subjective assessment) will play a significant part.

7. Moving to SL to BE manages risk, but can often reduce reward. Again, that BE point should have some reference (other than your personal need) to market levels.

8. Agreed.

9. This question is undergoing some analysis on @peter2 thread currently. Ultimately, if we could all pick the number 1 return, we would all put 100% into that. Pretty much impossible on a consistent basis. Therefore the question of narrow or broad is an issue, but it is unlikely to be determinative, as there are other variables at play.

10. I hate being wrong. It is currently fashionable in the literature to 'love being wrong' as this is educational and will improve you in the long run. An analogy: athletes: how often do you hear the champions state that they love to lose? Never. To win, you have to hate or fear losing so much, that you are prepared to do whatever it takes to win. Trading is like that. If you trade and you lose, lose, lose...odds are you will stop trading. Far better you first learn how to trade. Then trade. And win. From the Reefcap days, I know tech/a, WayneL,  Country Lad and Joules (there maybe a couple of others lurking) that's it. Out of 100's of members. Trading is a tough game. Discretionary is hard and mentally debilitating if you lose. I almost guarantee you, if you lose often, but limit your losses, at some point you will decline to take that small loss and you will end up with a massive loss. Not only will that hurt you financially, it will likely break you mentally and emotionally. Your trading career will be over.


jog on
duc


----------



## tech/a

1. Agree. And what that actually means in practice is salvaging losing trades. For example adding an Options leg or a paired trade, etc. to the trade in question to change it from what is was, to something else.

*You could but I dont. I dont allow my losses to continue to the point where they need salvaging.
Im never going to eradicate losses no matter what I do. But I can mitigate them.*

2. If you are setting some form of stop (at say a resistance/support level) or maximum dollar loss, etc. yes, you'll be provided quite quick feedback. That is not necessarily the same as 'analysis', that is simply a timing or entry issue.

*We differ here I dont wait for a stop to be taken out for proof that my analysis is wrong. 
For me if a trade doesn't go immediately in my favor then something is not right. Id rather be wrong about being wrong
than wait until the village idiot can see Im definitely wrong.

Importantly an INITIAL stop is a point which allows me to position size from---its NOT fixed it can and does move UP---Mine do all the time.*

3. Yes, but, it can still turn to custard. Experience in discretionary trading is the big differentiator from mechanical trading. Novices, simply by definition lack this 'skill'.

*Of Course That's why Im doing this thread!*

4. Again, experience. Second, it really depends on how you set your SL. A SL set re. risk, may not be the accurate placement in the market re. support/resistance etc.

*And again I expect my trade to move immediately in my intended or anticipated direction if it doesn't I move my stop UP*

5/6/. Again, experience (often a subjective assessment) will play a significant part.

*Yes and I (Less often) get these two situations entirely wrong. Id rather be out early on an anticipated Sharp reversal than late.
If Im early on a suspected reversal and I get it wrong my re entry wont have caused a lot of damage. Procrastination could cost 
a great deal. Again Im hoping to give some ways of anticipating moves to help those assessing a trade or two.*

7. Moving to SL to BE manages risk, but can often reduce reward. Again, that BE point should have some reference (other than your personal need) to market levels.

*Im not in agreement with this. (from MY experience) Yes it CAN in a very limited number of cases in my experience. Id much rather exit at B/E and watch a fall below--then observe a reversal in my direction---which I can re enter---than hold on HOPING my stop doesn't get taken out for a guaranteed loss. Diluting my R/R by the width of my stop loss that is/was set in stone.*

8. Agreed.

9. This question is undergoing some analysis on @peter2 thread currently. Ultimately, if we could all pick the number 1 return, we would all put 100% into that. Pretty much impossible on a consistent basis. Therefore the question of narrow or broad is an issue, but it is unlikely to be determinative, as there are other variables at play.

*Haven't seen Peters discussion--I should have a look.--But--*-

*Ponder this*-* I generally trade 3- 4 imminent or active movers if they dont move I either move my stop UP if I think a day may change things or a lower time frame stop makes more sense. If one or two move Ill load them accordingly. If its clear its really fast Ill hit it with a larger position increase calculating Stops and possible exits on the fly. If its moderate in moving in my direction I will either do nothing or increase a more moderate amount.---either way I want to maximize clear opportunity --- OR --- make room for another.*

10. I hate being wrong. It is currently fashionable in the literature to 'love being wrong' as this is educational and will improve you in the long run. An analogy: athletes: how often do you hear the champions state that they love to lose? Never. To win, you have to hate or fear losing so much, that you are prepared to do whatever it takes to win. Trading is like that. If you trade and you lose, lose, lose...odds are you will stop trading. Far better you first learn how to trade. Then trade. And win. From the Reefcap days, I know tech/a, WayneL, Country Lad and Joules (there maybe a couple of others lurking) that's it. Out of 100's of members. Trading is a tough game. Discretionary is hard and mentally debilitating if you lose. I almost guarantee you, if you lose often, but limit your losses, at some point you will decline to take that small loss and you will end up with a massive loss. Not only will that hurt you financially, it will likely break you mentally and emotionally. Your trading career will be over.

*Again Duc I --This time-- Strongly disagree.
If Im wrong and can identify it quickly and do something about it I have an opportunity to be better.

As an athlete if I lose and I will---That shows me I can be better. If Im a boxer as an example or an MMA fighter and get KO'd or Submitted you can bet I did something wrong--I wasn't quick enough or I didn't know how to counter a move or I didn't protect myself. If I wish to stay in the game Id better improve!
Id rather get hit a few times than KO'd ---- Ill take any number of punches. Every now and then Ill have my own KO victory.
Trading is no different---Your going to be wrong--better know how to survive and not get knocked out!

It works --- very well.*


----------



## ducati916

tech/a said:


> *1. You could but I dont. I dont allow my losses to continue to the point where they need salvaging.
> Im never going to eradicate losses no matter what I do. But I can mitigate them.
> 
> 
> 
> 2. We differ here I dont wait for a stop to be taken out for proof that my analysis is wrong. *





tech/a said:


> *3. For me if a trade doesn't go immediately in my favor then something is not right. Id rather be wrong about being wrong
> than wait until the village idiot can see Im definitely wrong.
> 
> 4. Importantly an INITIAL stop is a point which allows me to position size from---its NOT fixed it can and does move UP---Mine do all the time.
> 
> 
> 
> 5. And again I expect my trade to move immediately in my intended or anticipated direction if it doesn't I move my stop UP
> 
> 
> 
> 6. Yes and I (Less often) get these two situations entirely wrong. Id rather be out early on an anticipated Sharp reversal than late.
> If Im early on a suspected reversal and I get it wrong my re entry wont have caused a lot of damage. Procrastination could cost
> a great deal. Again Im hoping to give some ways of anticipating moves to help those assessing a trade or two.
> 
> 
> 
> 7. Im not in agreement with this. (from MY experience) Yes it CAN in a very limited number of cases in my experience. Id much rather exit at B/E and watch a fall below--then observe a reversal in my direction---which I can re enter---than hold on HOPING my stop doesn't get taken out for a guaranteed loss. Diluting my R/R by the width of my stop loss that is/was set in stone.
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 8. Ponder this*-* I generally trade 3- 4 imminent or active movers if they dont move I either move my stop UP if I think a day may change things or a lower time frame stop makes more sense. If one or two move Ill load them accordingly. If its clear its really fast Ill hit it with a larger position increase calculating Stops and possible exits on the fly. If its moderate in moving in my direction I will either do nothing or increase a more moderate amount.---either way I want to maximize clear opportunity --- OR --- make room for another.
> 
> 
> 
> 9. Again Duc I --This time-- Strongly disagree.
> If Im wrong and can identify it quickly and do something about it I have an opportunity to be better.
> 
> As an athlete if I lose and I will---That shows me I can be better. If Im a boxer as an example or an MMA fighter and get KO'd or Submitted you can bet I did something wrong--I wasn't quick enough or I didn't know how to counter a move or I didn't protect myself. If I wish to stay in the game Id better improve!
> Id rather get hit a few times than KO'd ---- Ill take any number of punches. Every now and then Ill have my own KO victory.
> Trading is no different---Your going to be wrong--better know how to survive and not get knocked out!
> 
> It works --- very well.*





1. Fine if you are day-trading. What if you are swing trading and it gaps well below your stop? Book the loss or work it back to a profit? I'd rather work it back to a profit. Day-trading is a different kettle-of-fish. How many novices start with day-trading? 

2. Again, day-trading, ok. Swing trading? If you know its going...but do you?

3. Fair enough, but that is a hard system for a novice (again, it is only really valid for a day trade strategy).

4. Well this is where we disagree. A SL point is a point in the market where your analysis (entry) can be deemed wrong. You position size accordingly after determining where that point is.

5. Fine, but that has little to zero correlation to market conditions.

6. But your placement of SL correlates to your risk, not to market conditions. Essentially, you're actually employing a scalping strategy. Which is fine, but that is even less of a novice strategy than a day-trade, which is not a novice strategy.

7. Possible with a DT. Not (always) possible with a Swing Trade.

8. So, this being (potentially) a swing trade, once the market closes, you cannot guarantee where it re-opens. You can therefore incur a far larger loss than your initial SL might suggest. Hence, my initial proposition: work the trade back to profit (I accept that this is much harder in the Aus. market). It can be done however.

9. You don't improve by getting hit. All you get is cumulative brain damage. Constant losing trades have the same effect. Trading before you know how to win (far more than you lose) is step 1. Step 1 has to be mastered before you actually trade real money.


jog on
duc


----------



## tech/a

Seriously Duc

i give up 
why do I waste my time 
mindless —— bull**** 

Tech  is going Dark


----------



## Bob111

tech/a said:


> Seriously Duc
> 
> i give up
> why do I waste my time
> mindless —— bull****
> 
> Tech  is going Dark




I for one would like to hear more Tech. I've been following along intently and am looking forward to more on this subject. 

Do you somehow scan for opportunities that meets the criteria of volume and gaps or do you just have a set of favourites that you continually watch?


----------



## lindsayf

Not the most subtle of thread dilutions of all time.........


----------



## tech/a

I've put Duc on ignore so the two way functionality will mean he cant see my stuff and I cant see his.
That's 2 I have on ignore ----- once on its permanent----for me.

Im taking a break but will be back.

Just to be clear.
What Im putting up many wont agree with or wont suit them or ----whatever ----- that's fine ignore it.
Im doing it because I get a lot of private mails looking for Mentors etc. Many do. Pete Trades here for all to follow and 
I want to leave something Similarly Different for those wanting direction. Its not for me---its for others its free and 
it works.

I dont have any issues with genuine discussion on the topic I enjoy them.

*Bill*
BOTH.
I watch and Cull all the time and have 5 scans. (Amibroker).
Which is really clunky in my view but does the job.

The posts so far are background.
Haven't even got to Risk and Trade management.

Im laying out the the foundations and will build from there.
Cant have one without the other.


----------



## tech/a

It works
This account started with 17k
Here are snap shots note the top right number the last one is today — now

*Started in SEPTEMBER 2020 (at $17K)*


----------



## lindsayf

Thanks Tech for sticking with the thread..following with a lot of interest.


----------



## vharik831

Hi Tech, 

Been following this thread since it began and has been a turnaround for me. Risk management is excellent with this method.
Looking forward to the posts!


----------



## over9k

I'm liking your stuff on stop-losses. I've never really believed in them - for every time they save your ass there's probably a dozen instances of them doing nothing other than realising a loss before a rebound.


----------



## tech/a

> I'm liking your stuff on stop-losses. I've never really believed in them - for every time they save your ass there's probably a dozen instances of them doing nothing other than realising a loss before a rebound.





Stops of any sort* to me *are trade management tools.
They manage all sorts of risk (Not just initial risk).
There are a number of things we need to manage in* ANY* trade.
Time horizons do govern the way a number of these are applied.

My use is always skewed in an attempt to have better profit figures
against capital risked.
If I can get losses in the $100s and wins in the $1000s and increase my
opportunities through Trade management Im going to out perform
passive investment and Systematic Mechanical trading because I
have a dynamic component/s.
Investors dont take advantage of them and Systems traders cant implement them .

*It is the mechanism to profit and the one which most interests me as a trader.*

And while we try to be as perfect as possible its not a pre requisite-- we can be wrong and still be
over a long period ---- spectacularly right--- profitable against capital at risk. (Whatever a long period is to you).


----------



## tech/a

MACRO ECONOMICS 

Did some get on the 1.2 Trillion Economic package in the US 
Instant rocket fuel for DJIA AND NASDAQ


----------



## frugal.rock

tech/a said:


> Did some get on the 1.2 Trillion Economic package in the US



Does a duck go quack?

Jumped on from the effect caused here. Not willing to trade US yet.
Wanted to prove to myself I still "had it" and am not a "has been".
Some will look at these trades and find them unacceptable risk.
3 out of 3. No more, no less.
Got the urge to prove "sideways is bunkum" out of the system.
Done.


----------



## over9k

tech/a said:


> MACRO ECONOMICS
> 
> Did some get on the 1.2 Trillion Economic package in the US
> Instant rocket fuel for DJIA AND NASDAQ



That got priced in as soon as the senate flipped. Might be worth doing a post on "pricing in" actually


----------



## tech/a

*Risk Management and Trade Management* go hand in hand. You wont get it perfectly--dont beat yourself up--you dont have to.

There are a number of types of Risk.
The first is* Initial risk* when placing a trade.

The generally accepted risk is 2% of capital which is designed in the event that your really terrible at getting a trade to move profitably in your direction. I vary that from 1% to 5% initially but my aim is that after 10 trades and X number of trades after that---that my Initial Losses total way *LESS* than 1% of capital at risk. Im currently at .045% 
How can I vary it particularly to get it down to such a low figure.

(1) My aim is to Find Momentum* IMMEDIATELY*---If EVERY trade went immediately and permanently in my traded direction what ever I risk at the beginning of each trade would be of no concern --- Id never take an initial loss.

(2) If I dont find Momentum immediately I will move my stop *UP--CLOSER* to my initial buy. I dont want to wait and see if my chosen REASON for placing my stop at point X is as good as my initial buy--Which right now sucks--good chance my Stop level will also be less than accurate.

(3) I have the control on how much I lose 1-5% or less. If I let it go to my stop level Im absolutely going to lose X%. Sure I may well get my initial timing wrong it could be next day or next week or never. 10 stops of .045% a loss of 4.5% of capital I can pick that up in 1 average trade.

(4) If  stock moves towards my Initial stop I'll *move it up*. The only time I get taken out is if it reverses so fast and hard I get hit on the first day --that happens. If stock moves* UP* in my direction Ill also move the stop *UP.*

(5) My aim is to bring *my stop to break-even* as soon as practical. Once here I can now start to manage the position while letting it go I look for patterns to then confirm that the move is going to (A) Continue, (B) Stall, (C) Reverse. 

Below is a chart of a trade

With notations.
Ill post what happened in a few days. 
Happy for questions.


----------



## tech/a

So The very next day *this *happens.

Looks Ugly and Im pretty sure My analysis isn't supported by Price action
Raising my stop I feel* I've done my best* to *mitigate losses.* I fully expect
to be closed out very early next session.


----------



## over9k

Stimulus money is hitting bank accounts now duck, don't go off half-cocked. 

Might be worth a post about mathematics, systems trading, modelling etc not being valid in atypical market conditions


----------



## tech/a

Following up again
The Next day's action gives me an *opportunity *
This looks like it could consolidate between the
high (To be tested ) and the Low of Yesterday.
Either way Im not seeing *CONTINUED* momentum.

*So Stop to B/E


*


----------



## tech/a

So on the next day I see trading testing the high of the volume control bar.
For now the stop is left at B/E and the trade can be left a *little more* to develop.

*Volume Control bars* are the Bars with very very high volume In the area we are trading
sometimes two bars of very similar volume (Like the ones here) can be joined to create
a wide area of influence. I've only shown one but NOTE the gap to the open is included
in the area.
Price is often contained with in these areas of influence.
You'll notice (If you start marking them on charts in your watch lists ) that often price will
(1) Range within the zone 
(2) Blast out of it.
(3) Drop slightly out of it before resuming back in it
(4) The area acts as support and resistance going forward.

They are important to me in trade management. Small retracements within the zones are
what we look for. Compact patterns which act as coils or springs. 

This is a wide zone (V/C Bar) with
trading in the complete range. For me the price action in this chart is less than Ideal. 
But have been kept in the trade by some surprisingly lucky price action.
my aim is to stick with momentum and patterns that anticipate further momentum.


----------



## tech/a

So from the last post we are looking for a test of the current high.
The Volume Control Bar and its Volume control Zone are likely to
influence price. Unless momentum continues I expect consolidation.

*Lets see what happened




So instantly we are deep in profit.
With a new bigger V/C bar and zone  Again what I want to see is a short
inside day and either a continuation of momentum or a compact continuation
pattern

Next Day 





So from here I expect the High to be tested as 
The bar finishes nice and strong on average volume so
------Encouraging.




Today we see the first real bullish bar in the consolidation but
the low of .063 has held.
Looking Good.


*

The break out bar and the next bar haven't displayed Strength I've kept moving my stop up
(Yellow) But Now i get a chance to really tighten it up under this short squat bar.
At .077. I dont want to give away much of my very nice profit.





To be continued.

Are these mark ups helping understanding of what I look for and why I move trailing Stops.??
*Helpful or confusing?*


----------



## frugal.rock

Which stock are these charts on tech? 
I realise this isn't important, but if I can read your blurb and look at charts I use, it would be more helpful for myself. Cheers.


----------



## tech/a

When the trade is finished


----------



## over9k

Hey @tech/a I'm an economics guy by trade and you're obviously a technicals/maths trader. I might need to make a big post about the relationship between the bond & equities markets over in my thread and I thought it might be a good addition to this one but I obviously don't want to go derailing your thread to stuff that isn't your particular type of analysis (not to mention that this thread is, well, yours) - would you like me to cross-post it or would you rather keep this one specific to your type of analysis?

(I blocked ducati long ago, you're not alone with your opinion there)


----------



## tech/a

*9k*
Its a great idea but worthy of its own thread.
I would be an avid follower.

*This Thread*
Is for those who are similar to me 
Not enough time to Pour over Micro and Macro economics.
Are visual beasts.
Understand that no matter how you analyze prospective investments 
its the momentum you need to find and ride.
Analysis (all types) can identify potential. This thread is based around
ONE form of identification
The ONE form I've found to be reliable and easily implemented.
This form of trading suits me and it works.


----------



## over9k

Ok you'll find me over in the "economic implications of a sars/coronavirus outbreak" thread


----------



## tech/a

For no other reason than to show “it work's”

See post on 9/3 9 days later.
And today’s screen shot this morning 
Sold RLU at 15c


----------



## barney

tech/a said:


> Sold RLU at 15c




I assume you will be shouting Mrs Tech a very nice dinner tonight Mr Tech 

Been a wild 5 days on RNU  (DNH but always good to see other punters having a win)


----------



## tech/a

Barney 
Of course


----------



## barney

tech/a said:


> Barney
> Of course




Lol,  Excellent.   You dare not let Mrs. Tech  suffer having to cook dinner after you have already "cleaned up" lol


----------



## tech/a

Don't Mind Her cooking she has owned Restaurants in the UK and Australia.
Has worked for me for 25Yrs. (No not in the Kitchen). Has no interest in Trading

Perfect!


----------



## barney

tech/a said:


> Don't Mind Her cooking she has owned Restaurants in the UK and Australia.
> Has worked for me for 25Yrs. (No not in the Kitchen). Has no interest in Trading
> 
> Perfect!




Lol.  Perfect indeed!  

She sounds multi talented which is nice, although not essential of course.  

Without wishing to derail your Thread at all;  

The World would not function without good wives (insert women/girlfriend/partners etc etc)

ps My wife also has little interest in Trading.  

pps I intend to buy her a new car for her birthday this year. Hopefully she might become slightly more interested then, lol.


----------



## tech/a

A few have private mailed me mentioning that they are lost with the charting methodology.

I must admit that I presumed everyone had a basic knowledge of charting.
The role Volume/ Range/Pattern play in a chart
Even the basics of what a bar chart does.
Where you get one

How many others  looking at this are in a similar position and a little embarressed
to mention it.

Tech analysis need not be voo doo 
There is a lot you DONT NEED TO KNOW.
We can cut to the chase!

It is well worth the effort to become proficient.


----------



## bsnews

tech/a said:


> A few have private mailed me mentioning that they are lost with the charting methodology.
> 
> I must admit that I presumed everyone had a basic knowledge of charting.
> The role Volume/ Range/Pattern play in a chart
> Even the basics of what a bar chart does.
> Where you get one
> 
> How many others  looking at this are in a similar position and a little embarressed
> to mention it.
> 
> Tech analysis need not be voo doo
> There is a lot you DONT NEED TO KNOW.
> We can cut to the chase!
> 
> It is well worth the effort to become proficient.



Hi Tech/a,
Made an account because of your post lol
I have been muddling through lots of YouTube video trying to gain some understanding
on reading and how you set up the charting to find the momentum indicator but I have became a bit overwhelmed with it all.
Cheers for the sharing of your knowledge, I have enjoyed the lessons.


----------



## over9k

tech/a said:


> A few have private mailed me mentioning that they are lost with the charting methodology.
> 
> I must admit that I presumed everyone had a basic knowledge of charting.
> The role Volume/ Range/Pattern play in a chart
> Even the basics of what a bar chart does.
> Where you get one
> 
> How many others  looking at this are in a similar position and a little embarressed
> to mention it.
> 
> Tech analysis need not be voo doo
> There is a lot you DONT NEED TO KNOW.
> We can cut to the chase!
> 
> It is well worth the effort to become proficient.



I could do a total newbies guide if you like duck? 

If these threads end up any good we might be able to get an ASF unofficial guide or something done, maybe one thread for beginner, another for intermediate, another for advanced, something like that? 

Reality is that most newbies are totally terrified just looking at a candle graph and as you & I know, whilst a lot of things might look really scary, most if it is actually really easy once you know how. 

I would definitely say that this thread is far above total newbie level.


----------



## Wilham

over9k said:


> I could do a total newbies guide if you like duck?
> 
> If these threads end up any good we might be able to get an ASF unofficial guide or something done, maybe one thread for beginner, another for intermediate, another for advanced, something like that?
> 
> Reality is that most newbies are totally terrified just looking at a candle graph and as you & I know, whilst a lot of things might look really scary, most if it is actually really easy once you know how.
> 
> I would definitely say that this thread is far above total newbie level.



I'm all for a newbies guide, but I wouldn't want to it to impact this thread personally.

You almost need to DYOR first to understand how much is out there before you can appreciate threads like this trying to show distilled and simplified methods.


----------



## bux2000

Hi Tech/a,

Not sure if I am looking into the headlight of that freight train, but does BLU float your boat today.
Some one once told me they traded ATH,s it meant nothing to me at the time and I have now refined it a bit.
Will BLU  have to close above  10c to be a contender or has that resistance been broken today?
I bungled a trade on NWC  and watched RNU go bye but I live in hope.

*If this is regarded as advice please delete my post*

All the best
bux


----------



## Beaches

tech/a said:


> A few have private mailed me mentioning that they are lost with the charting methodology.
> 
> I must admit that I presumed everyone had a basic knowledge of charting.
> The role Volume/ Range/Pattern play in a chart
> Even the basics of what a bar chart does.
> Where you get one
> 
> How many others  looking at this are in a similar position and a little embarressed
> to mention it.





To put it in building terms, I think you need to assume that many here on ASF are completely new to trading and are like 1st year apprentices, the ones you can send to the hardware store to buy a metric shifter or a bag of weep holes.

The more knowledgable we become, the harder it is to remember how much we didnt know when we first started out.


----------



## tech/a

Thanks for your comments

I agree that a T/A introductory thread would be good for many now and in the future
BUT
In T/A there is a great deal of analysis you DON’T NEED TO KNOW

Here in this thread there are aspects you just MUST know.
Range/Volume/Patterns/Volume Control Bars/Basic Volume Spread Analysis (VSA)

Ill just complete the chart in play now.

Then I’d like to go through what you need to know in charting the way I trade from
the very basic to the more complex.

All you’ll need is availability to BAR charts and volume
,and some draining capability.

out all day so back when I can.

Over 9 K you can get up and running if you like.
in a seperate thread.


----------



## pozindustrial

I am a total newbie, (buying shares for 3mths) plus I am over retirement age, and my learning and concentration levels are not too good, but Techa has given me the ability to grasp an understanding, I can now read the rudimentary graphs I get in my trading platform and I have been doing some profitable trading with less than $20k. Unfortunately that has been more luck than plan, but what I would like to say is if I can follow most of this almost anyone can. Thanks for all contributions.


----------



## tech/a

Over the years I’ve found 

The sauce ( the secret one ) is in the trade management.

But no amount of management will save an unprofitable methodology.


----------



## over9k

OK guys I've posted the beginner's chart reading guide and you can find it over here: https://www.aussiestockforums.com/t...alysis-chart-reading-101-for-beginners.36157/ 

not sure if @Joe Blow might want to just link it in the first post of this thread for the new guys to read first so they can understand what the duck is saying?


----------



## bux2000

bux2000 said:


> Hi Tech/a,
> 
> Not sure if I am looking into the headlight of that freight train, but does BLU float your boat today.
> Some one once told me they traded ATH,s it meant nothing to me at the time and I have now refined it a bit.
> Will BLU  have to close above  10c to be a contender or has that resistance been broken today?
> I bungled a trade on NWC  and watched RNU go bye but I live in hope.
> 
> *If this is regarded as advice please delete my post*
> 
> All the best



Hi Tech/a,

Can I apologise for my outburst.

The *eureka* effect (also known as the Aha! *moment* or *eureka* *moment*) refers to the common human experience of suddenly understanding a previously incomprehensible problem or concept.

I have spent some time looking at some of your older threads they make very interesting reading..... You are the real deal.
I would just like to thank you for taking the time to share your experience and insight, and look forward to future posts. 

All the best
bux


----------



## bux2000

over9k said:


> OK guys I've posted the beginner's chart reading guide and you can find it over here: https://www.aussiestockforums.com/t...alysis-chart-reading-101-for-beginners.36157




Thanks for the work you are doing too Over9k

bux


----------



## tech/a

Hi Bux 
I saw your post at the time but as it wasn’t currently something I’d follow 
didn’t comment and promptly forgot.
I wasn’t ignoring you. My apologies. Will elaborate later if you like.


----------



## Cam019

tech/a said:


> So from the last post we are looking for a test of the current high.
> The Volume Control Bar and its Volume control Zone are likely to
> influence price. Unless momentum continues I expect consolidation.
> 
> *Lets see what happened
> 
> View attachment 121484
> 
> 
> So instantly we are deep in profit.
> With a new bigger V/C bar and zone  Again what I want to see is a short
> inside day and either a continuation of momentum or a compact continuation
> pattern
> 
> Next Day
> 
> View attachment 121485
> 
> 
> 
> So from here I expect the High to be tested as
> The bar finishes nice and strong on average volume so
> ------Encouraging.
> 
> View attachment 121487
> 
> 
> Today we see the first real bullish bar in the consolidation but
> the low of .063 has held.
> Looking Good.
> 
> View attachment 121488
> *
> 
> The break out bar and the next bar haven't displayed Strength I've kept moving my stop up
> (Yellow) But Now i get a chance to really tighten it up under this short squat bar.
> At .077. I dont want to give away much of my very nice profit.
> 
> 
> View attachment 121489
> 
> 
> To be continued.
> 
> Are these mark ups helping understanding of what I look for and why I move trailing Stops.??
> *Helpful or confusing?*




@tech/a what was the ticker for this chart?


----------



## tech/a

*Cam*

If your going to read a chart there is no point knowing the ticker
_during an exercise. *You need to be able to consider all possibilities.

There is more on THAT chart to come.*_

The chart is telling you an absolute host of important information.
*WHAT IS THE CHART SAYING?*
Seriously I dont have a clue what most of my trades are involved in.
I dont care WHY. I just care about a potential trade and when in a trade
how to _extract as much as I can from it with least risk._ Crazy--to
the academics yes---to a few of us ---the way we roll.

*The Question to all.*

How would you have traded this or would you trade it* NOW?*
So if your in it what would your Trade management be and *WHY?*
So if you weren't and you wanted to trade it or watch list it
How would you set it up? 

What is the chart saying?


----------



## Cam019

I don't care about the fundamentals or what the company is. I just wanted the ticker to bring it up on my platform to see how the trade continued.


----------



## tech/a

Cam I’ve not finished yet 
I’ll continue soon. I was hoping for more interaction 
but if you really need it before I can present more 
private mail me.


----------



## Bob111

tech/a said:


> *The Question to all.*
> 
> How would you have traded this or would you trade it* NOW?*
> So if your in it what would your Trade management be and *WHY?*
> So if you weren't and you wanted to trade it or watch list it
> How would you set it up?
> 
> What is the chart saying?



This is where I have some confusion. Would you buy on the last inside day hoping for a jump above the volume control zone or wait for a close above the .082 level?


----------



## tech/a

@Bob111
@Cam019

Continuing on As I was in this trade I was stopped out BUT as ALWAYS in a correction zone I place a re buy stop limit order outside the zone  where it is clear that its not a test of the high but a continuation--this is NORMALLY 3 ticks. In this case .088c

This stays there until its proven otherwise by price action
EG a deep selloff on volume deep into the V/C area.
OR
It just falls slowly lower and lower over a long period or laments in the
V/C zone doing nothing. (20 or more days)

Ideal continuation consolidations last very short periods if price trades outside of
the consolidation in our direction by 3 ticks or more.

*1-5 days The best *
*5-10 days pretty good*
*10-30 days Generally not that strong*

So now we are setup for trading on this chart if it presents.
I have protected my profit and placed a trade if Im premature
in exit.




*Next What happens next!*


----------



## Bob111

Next I would say leave the buy stop limit at .088 but in my uneducated opinion I would say the next bar will be down.

Do you find placing a buy limit order above the V/C zone ties up too much money? Obviously if it goes in the direction you want then this works but if you have a few that go the opposite way that money could have been better utilised on other trades. I guess what I am asking is how do you choose one trade over another  if you have identified a few stocks with V/C zones?  

Also just out of curiosity your purple V/C zone starts at the close of the last bar in the blue zone instead of the high. Is this because it wasn't a gap?


----------



## bux2000

I know you were trying to keep the Bullsh#t to a minimum but here goes.

Option 1. The next bar closes down to support around .074c - .072c least probable
Option 2. The next bar takes out your Target buy @.086c possible because of upward momentum
Option 3. I think more probable for a consolidation day with an open and close within the high and low of the previous days high and low.

Can I ask do you set your Target buy as a buy at market or a limit buy and the same with your stop loss ?

Thanks
bux


----------



## tech/a

Bob111 said:


> Do you find placing a buy limit order above the V/C zone ties up too much money? Obviously if it goes in the direction you want then this works but if you have a few that go the opposite way that money could have been better utilised on other trades. I guess what I am asking is how do you choose one trade over another if you have identified a few stocks with V/C zones?
Click to expand...



Bob I only trade a max of 4 trades at a time. I've generally enough capital to cover all trades.
Im forever culling trades which are stagnant.--But Im not up to that part of my trade management *YET.*


Bob111 said:


> Also just out of curiosity your purple V/C zone starts at the close of the last bar in the blue zone instead of the high. Is this because it wasn't a gap?




There is a gap in both Bars 
A trade from the high to the next open is a gap.
Both bars did this. The correct marking is from the Open of
the previous bar to the high of the V/C bar* UNLESS* trading in that bar goes below 
the close of the previous bar---in that case it would be the entire bar.



bux2000 said:


> Can I ask do you set your Target buy as a buy at market or a limit buy and the same with your stop loss ?




If Im not close to a computer or cant use my phone Ill set Stop limits 
There is generally plenty of trading at a level to get filled.
If its a fast moving replacement I may sell at market but often place a 
Limit sell below two Levels packed with Buy volume.

Here is the* NEXT BAR


*

This is *WHY* I always place a trade that consolidates well in the top of a V/C zone
on a watch list with a Limit buy order in place. The number of times Im filled without
knowing it took off is not to be ignored.


----------



## bux2000

Hi Tech/a,

Can I just ask some more questions?

1.Do you use a weekly chart or longer to establish longer term support and resistance or only work within the Daily Charts once the breakout is established ?

2. How important is momentum, your demonstration chart  appears to consolidate and then a small dip before a breakout,  while other charts show a much larger dip and maybe a higher low than the previous low.... if that makes sense..... and then the breakout ?

Thanks again for your time.

bux


----------



## tech/a

bux2000 said:


> Hi Tech/a,
> 
> Can I just ask some more questions?
> 
> 1.Do you use a weekly chart or longer to establish longer term support and resistance or only work within the Daily Charts once the breakout is established ?
Click to expand...


Daily and while in a fast moving trade 5-30 min charts.


bux2000 said:


> (2)  How important is momentum, your demonstration chart  appears to consolidate and then a small dip before a breakout,  while other charts show a much larger dip and maybe a higher low than the previous low.... if that makes sense..... and then the breakout ?
> 
> Thanks again for your time.
> 
> bux






Bux all sorts of things occur in a consolidation
each bar can tell us something or often NOTHING about a possible outcome in that consolidation
Small tight high end consolidations are by far the best
deeper corrections tend to be less likely to continue UNLESS that volatility smashes through in under 10 days
My Watch-list and Stop limit orders are being culled all the time.
The best continuations happen quickly under 10 trading days.
Not hard and fast but most common.


----------



## bux2000

Hi Tech/a,

Thank you for taking the time to give such detailed answers, and all making perfect sense.

All the best
bux


----------



## tech/a

Unfortunately we have to do some work 
often for negative return 
Now I know how a travel agent feels!


----------



## bux2000

Yep............ Charge ups good.  
But without risk there is no chance of those big rewards.


----------



## Bob111

Hey tech,
If you place a stop limit 3 pips above a volume control zone but your order doesn't get placed and the price goes higher do you chase it or let it go? I had one where it opened a pip above my stop limit and closed up another 7%.


----------



## tech/a

Yes I would but less of a position 50%
I’d then be looking for a pullback to load up more 
I usually do this with a 15 min chart 
that pullback often doesn’t get down to either 
of my initial buy levels


----------



## tech/a

tech/a said:


> Yes I would but less of a position 50%
> I’d then be looking for a pullback to load up more
> I usually do this with a 15 min chart
> that pullback often doesn’t get down to either
> of my initial buy levels




Unless its HWH which I saw at 8c and have watched to .098 waiting for a pullback.

Im sure it will get smashed back down very soon.


----------



## Cam019

Here is what I would have done. Yes, I found the ticker but @tech/a hasn't disclosed it for good reason, so neither will I.

My buy stop would be placed at $0.11 with a stop at $0.08.

I know the range of the VRCB includes the gap up on open from $0.077 the day before - but for me, I also like to take notice of where the bars in a consolidation preceding a breakout, close at. For a gap up wide range bar like this, I like to place my stop at the low of the breakout bar if it corresponds with the highest close in the consolidation preceding the breakout. Which it does - the squat bar tech/a mentioned here.


----------



## tech/a

And so to the next Bar.
I'm already in at .086 and on the buy bar I get an opportunity
see notes in *white *

I sincerely hope that those following along are understanding what to
look for and what do do as they manage a trade *BAR* by *BAR

CAM*
If your not in at this point then your buy is reasonable
as is your stop setting at THIS point but as you will see
there are other options as things develop.




*NEXT a very important Strategy which has made me 
a LOT of $$s and its right here on THIS chart!

And we keep going.*


----------



## Cam019

tech/a said:


> *CAM*
> If your not in at this point then your buy is reasonable
> as is your stop setting at THIS point but as you will see
> there are other options as things develop.




Yep, my assumption was that I wasn't in the trade and that's what I had to work with until more bars presented themselves.


----------



## tech/a

tech/a said:


> NEXT a very important Strategy which has made me
> a LOT of $$s and its right here on THIS chart!




I purposely look for opportunities in the .05-.099c area.

My initial buys normally 100-300,000 will move .001c so $100-$300 a tick
*quite manageable* when working a trade like this one.
You can of course trade *any amount* with the same ratio of leverage on
your trade.

BUT when they trade in the 10c+ arena then each tick is .005c $500-$1500 a tick
That's where when you get it right the $s flow.

*Instant leverage!

If I miss it before 10c I'll trade about 1/3rd of the size.*


----------



## tech/a

So eventually Cam gets a fill.

I move my stop and find myself in another 
waiting game during a consolidation which 
is behaving itself above the V/C ZONE 
Few failed tests of the high on really *LOW* volume




Eventually it bursts out and this is where the state of play is *NOW.

Stop is moved to 15C




So important things in Consolidations

(1) Staying above or in the high parts of a V/C zone 
Rejected penetrations into the zone are good!
(2) Low volume in consolidations are good particularly
when testing highs.
(3) Price action at the top end of moves is positive.
Such as the last 3 bars.
(4) Tight ranges in bars. Last 2 bars.

To be continued------*


----------



## Bob111

tech/a said:


> I purposely look for opportunities in the .05-.099c area.
> 
> My initial buys normally 100-300,000 will move .001c so $100-$300 a tick
> *quite manageable* when working a trade like this one.
> You can of course trade *any amount* with the same ratio of leverage on
> your trade.
> 
> BUT when they trade in the 10c+ arena then each tick is .005c $500-$1500 a tick
> That's where when you get it right the $s flow.
> 
> *Instant leverage!
> 
> If I miss it before 10c I'll trade about 1/3rd of the size.*



I never knew this!

Do you find the 10c area becomes a resistance point because of the jump in minimum ticks?


----------



## frugal.rock

G'day Tech, do you think all this should be only available in the private part of ASF ? 
The have to log in part? 
Like P2 weekly/ daily portfolio.

Otherwise any character can gain the wisdom of your many years and this method/ edge may lose its edge somewhat, or would it have the reverse effect of the more the merrier ...?  

I feel the content should be for members only... Cheers and I wish you all a restful Easter break.


----------



## tech/a

Ran it by Joe 
Personally I don’t mind.
I don’t think the 15 people following are
going to influence trading in the near future.


----------



## frugal.rock

tech/a said:


> Ran it by Joe
> Personally I don’t mind.
> I don’t think the 15 people following are
> going to influence trading in the near future.



No worries, after posting, I had the afterthought of the forum could do with the "attraction", so better to keep in the open.

I am sure many more than 15 people will end up getting value out of this thread.... if words were gold?
Thanks Tech, I see this thread as a proper gifthorse. 
Cheers.


----------



## LavishPrince

Hi Tech

I sense that this thread is an absolute gold mine of insights and knowledge...but to me, as someone knew to investing in stocks at this level of detail, I wouldn't know where to start making sense of the charts and lots of the technical terms you're using.

I get the macro stuff for the most part, and the principles of supply and demand etc.

Do you have a recommended reading(s) that explains the technical stuff to the layman, so that I can better understand your advice in this thread?

Many thanks.


----------



## entropy

LavishPrince said:


> Hi Tech
> 
> I sense that this thread is an absolute gold mine of insights and knowledge...but to me, as someone knew to investing in stocks at this level of detail, I wouldn't know where to start making sense of the charts and lots of the technical terms you're using.
> 
> I get the macro stuff for the most part, and the principles of supply and demand etc.
> 
> Do you have a recommended reading(s) that explains the technical stuff to the layman, so that I can better understand your advice in this thread?
> 
> Many thanks.



Agree with you. Tech is very generous to share his knowledge, real eye opener for me as a newby to share trading. His thought process I find enlightening. The technical terms and jargon I struggle with atm but am reading as widely as I can to get up to speed. Got into share trading last year after seeing the feeble performance of my meagre super funds. They were charging hefty fees for "advice" over the years. When I asked for copies of that advice none was forthcoming but I did get a nice refund! Gradually transferred most of the fund into Commsec. Am finding this forum excellent!


----------



## PetEarwig

Regarding technical terms, as a newer trader myself, I have found reading a broad range of the content on this forum to be helpful as the terminology is repeated and sometimes dug into deeper. I also will often do a google search on a term I am unfamiliar with or watch a youtube video on the term and this has given me a basic understanding of what is being referred to. The longer I hang around here and see the terms repeated, the more I am gaining a general understanding of what is meant. I have found Tech/A's teaching style to be really helpful even if I don't understand everything right away. Craig


----------



## tech/a

LavishPrince said:


> Hi Tech
> 
> I sense that this thread is an absolute gold mine of insights and knowledge...but to me, as someone knew to investing in stocks at this level of detail, I wouldn't know where to start making sense of the charts and lots of the technical terms you're using.
> 
> I get the macro stuff for the most part, and the principles of supply and demand etc.
> 
> Do you have a recommended reading(s) that explains the technical stuff to the layman, so that I can better understand your advice in this thread?
> 
> Many thanks.






entropy said:


> Agree with you. Tech is very generous to share his knowledge, real eye opener for me as a newby to share trading. His thought process I find enlightening. The technical terms and jargon I struggle with atm but am reading as widely as I can to get up to speed. Got into share trading last year after seeing the feeble performance of my meagre super funds. They were charging hefty fees for "advice" over the years. When I asked for copies of that advice none was forthcoming but I did get a nice refund! Gradually transferred most of the fund into Commsec. Am finding this forum excellent!






PetEarwig said:


> Regarding technical terms, as a newer trader myself, I have found reading a broad range of the content on this forum to be helpful as the terminology is repeated and sometimes dug into deeper. I also will often do a google search on a term I am unfamiliar with or watch a youtube video on the term and this has given me a basic understanding of what is being referred to. The longer I hang around here and see the terms repeated, the more I am gaining a general understanding of what is meant. I have found Tech/A's teaching style to be really helpful even if I don't understand everything right away. Craig




Tied up for a while today
But will say that when it comes to technical analysis and those learning
youll find there is nothing truer than

” You have to know what you don’t need to know
so that you can know what it is you need to know”

The simplest and most direct path in my view is price action
in particular VSA ( Volume spread Analysis ) Volume and Pattern.

Charting should be investigated and thought of as a diagrammatical
depiction of the participants trading or Investing in the instrument
your looking at.

Look for *EXTREMES* at beginnings and Ends

Back when I can


----------



## tech/a

I have Placed some info on

*READING VOLUME*

Over here.






						How to Trade or Invest Profitably - "Without The Bullsh*t" - Technical Analysis Step by Step Tutorial Plus Q&A Thread
					

Can I ask that you please keep this sort of discussion separate to the Original thread   The initial thread requires some for some a degree of learning and understanding To that end over time I will present and discuss with those interested the Basic and more advanced T/A required to trade this...




					www.aussiestockforums.com


----------



## tech/a

OK thought I'd get back into this thread.

The following chart is a great example of a common number of often seen setups.
Ones I use and I know Pete uses some examples.
Im also aware that other traders use them and were featured to some degree in
Shawaggers Latest book "Unknown Market wizards."

This is 4CE  Ill show a fuller chart then go through the three setups and trades as 
they all differ. Volume and range mean something different in each.

You'll be able to see similarities in many charts. Hopefully this will help you read them better.


----------



## tech/a

This shows the full trade 
The stock at this point would be back
on my watch list and discarded from there in a few weeks 

*To be honest I would not have seen the second trade it would 
not have ticked enough boxes. So wont show anything on that other than The high was clearly tested
and rejected strongly again!








*


----------



## tech/a

Though Id also Put up CCV which Im trading so I can comment live.

Its pretty easy to see where I saw it and Purchased at 35C


----------



## bux2000

Hi Tech/a

With the utmost respect are we looking at CVV ?
Of particular interest to me I hold.

Thanks for your time
bux


----------



## tech/a

All thumbs yes CVV


----------



## tech/a

Some more commentary on 4CE before open on Monday.


----------



## tech/a

My aim in pointing out these setups and tests is to help you in identifying volume and range due to 

*(1) Lack of supply and a strong positive initial move.
OR
(2) Increasing Supply indicating either a stall or a reversal in a move.*

Both need to be acted upon.


----------



## tech/a

So we re visit those posted last week
CVV and CRR both difficult to trade as there are strong moves which we cannot tell if there are exhausting or continuing. This weeks price action gave us plenty to work with
Ive also posted CPH which is different again rising from a weak position so has other considerations
	

		
			
		

		
	





	

		
			
		

		
	
.

As you can see Im only trading tickers with a "C"-----------


----------



## debtfree

tech/a said:


> As you can see Im only trading tickers with a "C"-----------




Ahhh, that's the secret  . Thanks @tech/a, appreciate your info and what you (C) see .


----------



## qldfrog

tech/a said:


> So we re visit those posted last week
> CVV and CRR both difficult to trade as there are strong moves which we cannot tell if there are exhausting or continuing. This weeks price action gave us plenty to work with
> Ive also posted CPH which is different again rising from a weak position so has other considerations
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> View attachment 125963
> View attachment 125964
> View attachment 125965
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> As you can see Im only trading tickers with a "C"-----------



I noticed something similar with my systems where there are weeks in M or R or A.
We could even find a reasonable explanation when dealing with smallcaps...


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## tech/a

qldfrog said:


> I noticed something similar with my systems where there are weeks in M or R or A.
> We could even find a reasonable explanation when dealing with smallcaps...



Truth is it’s coincidence I actually have BUB and EL8


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## qldfrog

tech/a said:


> Truth is it’s coincidence I actually have BUB and EL8



Probably same for me but its always weird when 4 or 5 of 10 buys on a day start with the same letter.
Should backtest the alphabet system😁


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## Edgy

Excellent thread,it's certainly refreshing to have found this forum recently.I have a basic question and that is,how do you find these stocks to trade?


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## tech/a

Edgy

I have a number of searches for New Highs over various periods
Un usual volume and range which can be a number of things.
Eg squat range and very high volume ,Very high volume AND range 
Gaps with and without volume and range. plus a number of Proprietary
searches like a Tech Trader entry (which is a Trading system I developed 
in a previous lifetime. Its in Radges book Un Holy Grails along with others).
There are many ways.


*BUT Most importantly I have a number of watchlists*. This is where the really great trades usually originate from.

Most chartists who have been doing this for 10 + years will tell you they can instantly recognize an opportunity--
be that either to buy or sell a position,

Generally a Pattern OR a bar in a pattern or what didn't happen.

This you find in watchlists and what to look for are observations over 1000s of charts.
Hundreds of trades and many Market lessons--the good and the bad!

The answer IS in *Bold!*


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