# Grain Futures - Corn, Wheat, Bean complex



## wayneL (3 April 2007)

The USDA released corn acreages on Friday showing that farmers have been jumping on the bandwagon in a big way. http://ifs.marketcenter.com/news/story.jsp?cID=VISION&iFSNi=i4754264334237696064

Bearish. Has caused two limit down days in a row. As these increased corn acreages are at the expense of Soybean plantings, it is more bullish for beans.

I know there's not a lot of interest for these markets here, but there it is.


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## wayneL (3 April 2007)

Corn closed 1 tick above limit down. (1/4 cent)


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## CanOz (3 April 2007)

I'm certainly interested in soft commodities and especially your trading methods for them Wayne. CFD's might not be thebest way to trade commods, but its still a good way to learn. Access to some is still limited.

Are you short corn now or is it too late? Its filled that gap nicely.

Soya is driven up along with Crude oil you agree, we certainly see that with Palm oil?

Cheers,


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## wayneL (3 April 2007)

CanOz said:


> I'm certainly interested in soft commodities and especially your trading methods for them Wayne. CFD's might not be thebest way to trade commods, but its still a good way to learn. Access to some is still limited.
> 
> Are you short corn now or is it too late? Its filled that gap nicely.
> 
> ...



I closed my short on corn before the report, because it could have quite easily gone the other way... not pleasant.

But been into the intraday swings on beans and wheat though, and holding a small soybean long.

Grains are partially an energy market these days; corn => ethanol, soybean oil => bio diesel.

There is a contract for soy oil. I rarely trade it, but as you would expect, in a solid uptrend as well.

For interest, here is a chart of bean oil (in blue) plotted with crude (in green):


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## CanOz (3 April 2007)

Looks a bit ripe for a pull back. Crude should see a leg down before resuming but it could be influenced by the current geo-poli concerns IMO.

So you pretty much stick with the basic T/A stuff, support/resist, fibb, blah blah blah?

Cheers,


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## wayneL (3 April 2007)

CanOz said:


> Looks a bit ripe for a pull back. Crude should see a leg down before resuming but it could be influenced by the current geo-poli concerns IMO.
> 
> So you pretty much stick with the basic T/A stuff, support/resist, fibb, blah blah blah?
> 
> Cheers,




Yeah nothing fancy, just have intraday charts running alongside the daily for a bit of extra fun.

I do keep a bit of an eye on when reports come out (much the same as stocks in that regard) and a bit of basic FA... just to get a tag on the sentiment... nothing too intelligent sounding there either lol.

They're good to diversify away from the SM a bit.


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## Knobby22 (3 April 2007)

Mexico has legislated to fix the price of tortillas which had been skyrocketing. Tortillas are a major part of Mexico's poorest classes diet and the price increases were causing social unrest (ie rioting and increased guerilla activity along with malnutition). Why has the price gone up?? Because a large % of Mexico's corn crop was being sold to the US for alchohol plants.

Typical US. While they fill their giant 4WD, consider how many starving peasants it would have fed.


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## CanOz (3 April 2007)

Knobby22 said:


> Mexico has legislated to fix the price of tortillas which had been skyrocketing. Tortillas are a major part of Mexico's poorest classes diet and the price increases were causing social unrest (ie rioting and increased guerilla activity along with malnutition). Why has the price gone up?? Because a large % of Mexico's corn crop was being sold to the US for alchohol plants.
> 
> Typical US. While they fill their giant 4WD, consider how many starving peasants it would have fed.




Yeah, i was just thinking the same thing this morning. Messing around with the world's staple foods is dangerous.....you can take people's money, buttake thier food and they get real cranky. I heard Fidel had a few words to along the same lines the other day from his Hossy bed.

Cheers,


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## Joules MM1 (14 May 2012)

ICE launches grain contracts, battles CME on home turf
Sun May 13, 2012 12:00am EDT

http://www.reuters.com/article/2012/05/13/markets-ice-grains-idUSL1E8SB2AC20120513


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## CanOz (15 May 2012)

I've started trading the grain complex this week with my system, looking for something not quite so correlated., no signals so far tonight!

Things are getting nasty over there!corn:

CanOz


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## Joules MM1 (17 July 2012)

mark sebastian, mrtopstep



spills into views on major equities


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## Joules MM1 (17 July 2012)

Joules MM1 said:


> spills into views on major equities




*Drought In U.S. Now Worst Since 1956; Food Prices To Spike, Economy To Suffer
*



> And this "worst-in-a-generation drought from Indiana to Arkansas to California is damaging crops and rural economies and threatening to drive food prices to record levels," Bloomberg News warns.




http://www.npr.org/blogs/thetwo-way...ces-to-spike-economy-to-suffer?sc=tw&cc=share


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## Joules MM1 (18 July 2012)

can you say 'limit up' ?

Huge Dramatic *Photos Of The Drought That's Devastating America's Farmland*
Mamta Badkar and Rob Wile	| Jul. 16, 2012, 2:44 PM



http://www.businessinsider.com/photos-of-drought-devastating-american-farmland-2012-7


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## Joules MM1 (21 July 2012)

Joules MM1 said:


> Devastating America's Farmland[/B]




more of, gets worse.......since 1934

http://www.ritholtz.com/blog/2012/0...higher/?utm_source=dlvr.it&utm_medium=twitter




excerpt


> Over all, only 31 percent of the nation’s corn is in good to excellent condition, compared with 66 percent at the same time last year . . .


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## Joules MM1 (31 July 2012)

playing ops on extremeties


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## Joules MM1 (6 August 2012)

http://www.economist.com/node/21559961?fsrc=scn/tw/te/pe/cornonthecusp

*Soaring grain prices
Corn on the cusp
Another food crisis looms*

Aug 4th 2012 | from the print edition 
	

		
			
		

		
	




excerpts


> Corn prices have climbed (see chart) and hopes that low stocks might be replenished have been dashed. America’s crop goes in roughly equal measure to producing ethanol, feeding livestock and for export. All three will feel the pinch.






> America can cut corn exports. But the world’s other big corn-exporting regions, South America and Ukraine, have also suffered droughts. Big importers, such as Japan, South Korea and many poor countries, face a problem. Bad weather in Russia will also hit exports of wheat. And high corn prices last year encouraged a switch to feeding livestock with low-grade wheat, depleting stockpiles. So the prospects for substitution are limited.


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## sinner (6 August 2012)

That is some retarded artificial scarcity ****!

Full 33% of corn going to ethanol with an EROEI of what...2? 

Not to mention still so much subsidy going on.


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## MARKETWINNER (7 June 2013)

I saw following link today.

http://in.reuters.com/article/2013/06/06/markets-grains-idINL3N0EI04N20130606

GRAINS-New-crop corn prices hit 9-day low, big harvest expected

http://in.reuters.com/article/2013/06/06/us-food-fao-idINBRE95503J20130606
Cereals output seen rebounding, weighing on food prices: U.N

Reuters) - A projected rebound in global wheat and maize production this year will weigh on food prices but strong demand will prevent prices falling far from high levels, the United Nations food agency said on Thursday.

Please note that I do not endorse or take responsibility for material in the above hyper-linked sites.


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## MARKETWINNER (7 July 2013)

After long time CBOT corn future contract went below 500 levels.

CBOT Corn	USd/bu.	491.25	-11.50	-2.29%	Dec 13

Actually I didn’t expect it to go below 500 so soon though I expected it.

Even Soya beans sister of Corn also going down now.  

CBOT Soybeans	USd/bu.	1,228.25	-22.50	-1.80%

CBOT Soybean Meal	USD/st	357.90	-10.50	-2.85%	Dec 13

Oats up.

My ideas are not a recommendation to either buy or sell any security,commodity or currency. Please do your own research prior to making any investment decisions.


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## MARKETWINNER (17 July 2013)

http://www.farms.com/news/corn-soybean-futures-prices-fall-on-sell-off-64838.aspx

Corn & Soybean Futures Prices Fall On Sell Off. (Jul 12, 2013)


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## MARKETWINNER (22 July 2013)

http://www.farms.com/news/corn-soybean-futures-prices-slide-continues-65046.aspx

Corn, Soybean Futures Prices Slide Continues. (Jul 18, 2013)


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## MARKETWINNER (26 July 2013)

Globally not only gold but also corn, maize and soybean are not beautiful as before. They were really beautiful in 2012 and broke some of the all time highs. Now they are looking for bottom. We have to wait and see. I think it is time to identify next beautiful things in commodity and stock market. At different times different stocks and commodities can become more beautiful than others.

http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2013-...w-as-soybeans-drop-on-stockpiles-outlook.html

Soybeans Drop to 17-Month Low on Slack Demand; Corn, Wheat Fall


http://www.reuters.com/article/2013/07/26/usa-corn-idUSL1N0FV2FV20130726

UPDATE 1-US cash corn bids tumble from lofty levels after soy drops

http://sg.finance.yahoo.com/news/indian-soybean-futures-down-prospect-092917570.html

Indian soybean futures down on prospect of higher output

My ideas are not a recommendation to either buy or sell any security, commodity or currency. Please do your own research prior to making any investment decisions. Please note that I do not endorse or take responsibility for material in the above hyper-linked sites.


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## MARKETWINNER (2 February 2014)

Chicago Board of Trade soybean futures prices could fall in 2014 due to big plantings in the United States that will lead to a huge crop and bumper harvests by key South American producers. Other countries such as Asia and Africa too like to plant more corn (Maize) and soya bean now. As a result of this we could see lower grain prices in the medium run. Global soya and corn inventories could get boost in 2014. Commodities such as corn, soya and wheat could struggle with expected rising stocks.
It is going to be a pretty tough road for above commoditise during next couple of years. Wheat demand could go up in the medium term when consumers try to substitute wheat for rice. Rice priced too could come down. 

http://www.insidefutures.com/article/1151536/Where Are The Grains Headed.html

Where Are The Grains Headed

My ideas are not a recommendation to either buy or sell any security, commodity or currency. Please do your own research prior to making any investment decisions. Please note that I do not endorse or take responsibility for material in the above hyper-linked site.


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## peter2 (2 March 2018)

An old thread, but worth a renewed look. I've missed the recent rallies in the grains as they started just before I started the Part 3 momentum trade book thread. 

However I decided to not take the BO on this wheat chart as price has rallied a lot. Well price boomed after news of poor weather in Argentina looks likely to reduce their wheat crops. 

I'll do an occasional trade in soft commodity markets to demonstrate the availability of these markets.


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