# ZFX - Zinifex Limited



## chicken (7 January 2005)

This stock will be of intrest ...lead,silver zinc,copper,gold...and 5 smelters one in QLD ,Sydney,Tasmania ,USA,Holland...and all running positive..check it out as share price only $2.36...PE6....


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## chicken (7 January 2005)

*Re: ZINIFEX..ZFX*

ZFX..UP 3c..going through resistance of $2.39...if she holds above stock will rise further..PE6....should be PE15..so lots of upside...this company has NO DEBTS...bought at bargain basement price of $860 million...cost to build and set up $4billion...anyone who held PasMINCO SHARES will get their money back with this stock...tightly held by INSTITUTIONS and BANKS..could also become a takeover target because of being so undervalued...this will be a winner for 2005...talk to your broker..make your research :


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## smuggler (7 January 2005)

*Re: ZINIFEX..ZFX*

Why no debts? They owe the banks millions . They are run by the banks. If commodities fall this one is sunk. Their operations are dirty:hammer:


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## chicken (7 January 2005)

*Re: ZINIFEX..ZFX*

not what the directors are saying so come up with your information read their last results...they are not dirty..post your evidence... :hammer:


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## chicken (7 January 2005)

*Re: ZINIFEX..ZFX*

Also...what business runs without a BANK..if they put their money in in substancially amount why should they have no right in overseeing the workings of this group after all PASMINCO..was a disaster because the BANKS had no say..if they have a say they have accountants who know what to do..so where is your argument..I ra ther see the BANKS involved then some private person who does only work for their own pocket..as far as dirty..get of the grass that is only your opinion..Business gets a bit tough..look what happened to lok...now TELSTRA made a good buy and values its stak at $10 billion..I feel you LOST money in PASMINCO and you now are brassed off..LOLOLOLOLOL :hammer:


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## chicken (7 January 2005)

*Re: ZINIFEX..ZFX*

Also...you said if comodity prices fall we are gone.,..so will Australia...its run on Commodities..and all the other companies..next you will tell me oilprices will go down get of the grass...China needs us..especially their zinc for Stainless steel manufacturing...so business is business...they have a good team at the helm and are making money read the share magaczne..october issue...you might even learn something for a change...


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## chicken (7 January 2005)

*Re: ZINIFEX..ZFX*

sorry, zinc is not used for Stainless manufacturing my mistake but all the same its nearly up 5c..so who is buying the market tells me its a good stock... :  :jump:


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## Fleeta (7 January 2005)

*Re: ZINIFEX..ZFX*

Why do I get the feeling that Chicken and Smuggler are the same person?

Come to think of it, how do I know that heaps of people here aren't the same person and just like arguing with themselves?

Hmmm.

Anyway - Zinifex is a dud, I wouldn't touch it with your money, try Sons of Gwalia instead!


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## Bingo (7 January 2005)

*Re: ZINIFEX..ZFX*



			
				Fleeta said:
			
		

> Why do I get the feeling that Chicken and Smuggler are the same person?
> 
> Come to think of it, how do I know that heaps of people here aren't the same person and just like arguing with themselves?
> 
> ...




I don't agree with you Fleeta because ZFX is a BIG dud . Oh maybe I am you!


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## chicken (7 January 2005)

*Re: ZINIFEX..ZFX*

you must have lost a lot of money with PASMINCO..if they are a dud well then I am father CHRISTMAS...LOLOLOLO Get your facts right first..read comments on ozestock maybe you will learn something..they are making real money with real people in the real world I suppose you even would say WMC is a dud..do your research before you post this sort of nonsense


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## chicken (8 January 2005)

*Re: ZINIFEX..ZFX*

Zinifex is one of the worlds largest integrated zinc and lead producer. With smelters in Australa,USA and Holland.Zinifex is able to remain competitve in global markets.The companys Century zinc Mine is one of the largest and cmmercially viable in the world and has a life of about 12 years. Although the business, the assets,the fundamentals and its outstanding fiscal 2004 results suggests that Zinifex is an attractive investment,it continues to trade at an discount priceeven outstripping its prospectus forecasts by nearly 300% failed to stir the market.Perhaps a PASMINCO hangover has left investors in a cautious frame of mind,but ZINIFEX is a different investment to the old PASMINCO and it should be considered on its own merit. Based on BELL POTTERS 2005 forecast, Zinifex PE is 6, relative to a share price of then $2.20.....now $2.41...Zinifex is leveraged to ZINC and LEAD prices along with currency movements, but its core commodities have held up well and the Australian $ is moving in the right direction.Although much is said about softening in base metal prices Zinifexs managment recently pointed out that when the currency and commodity dynamics are drawn together the outlook appears strong....the Australian $ ZINC price has been as high as US$1800 per tonne compared to the current price of about US$1200 per tonne


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## chicken (10 January 2005)

*Re: ZINIFEX..ZFX*

GREAT volume..with a good rise...something is up this stock will rise further...hardly any shortsells...only 300k...will go to $4..youll see..do your research  predicted that stock will rise 10c....today......to $2.51...Hi Ho UP WE GO......LOLOLOLOLOL


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## chicken (10 January 2005)

*Re: ZINIFEX..ZFX*

Just was reading the news on Reuters...there will be a shortage of ZINC in 2005 to the tune of 150k tonnes so price will not come down and the year after it might be as high as 250k tonnes makes intresting reading does it not...China is just flying along and needs ZINC..even bigger than USA..thats what it says :aus:


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## tech/a (10 January 2005)

*Re: ZINIFEX..ZFX*

Not getting much interest here Chicken!!

Gets my vote.$4.00 is a bit ambitious but hey!!Anything is possible.

Fleeta why is it a dud?


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## chicken (11 January 2005)

*Re: ZINIFEX..ZFX*

Tech..thanks for the chart its looking fantastic...should make another high today..5c..to 10c rise...PE6  is still very low...should be about PE12 to PE15..so good upside here..very few shorts only 300k..they might lose on that deal....the directors were saying on record that the share price is low to the assets they have...HI HO UP zinifex will go


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## chicken (11 January 2005)

*Re: ZINIFEX..ZFX*

something up heavy volume and now asking $2.60...even I did not see that today...its going off the charts :bazooka:


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## tech/a (11 January 2005)

*Re: ZINIFEX..ZFX*

Very nice day trade chart.
Looks as though the move may continue,if the close is in the top quartile of the days trading.Pullback late is normal.See howmany think tommorows open will be bullish by the close.

This is a 5 min chart great breakout opportunities all day.
Been a couple of nice ones this week AZR!

Interested in how everyone intends to exit?


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## chicken (11 January 2005)

*Re: ZINIFEX..ZFX*

Tech/a...what is the situation re some one taking a short position in this  stock...see asx shortsell there is the list of short sells..and I noticed the no rising if this stock rises further has the person who took the short position to pay any money or does the person have to buy on market to deliver the shares sold by the person who shorted the stock...your comments would be apreciated... :


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## Fleeta (11 January 2005)

*Re: ZINIFEX..ZFX*

Read a Huntleys report that said...

'As an unhedged, integrated lead-zinc producer, ZFX's volatile fortunes are tied to the A$ zinc and lead prices.' 

'We are wary of the inherent risks involved with the business model and the potential for legacy liabilities.' 

'The prospective FY05 PE of less than 10 is not a sufficiently attractive discount for this capital hungry company'

Personally I think that lead and zinc have had their run.

But hey, it's going well now isn't it...


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## tech/a (12 January 2005)

*Re: ZINIFEX..ZFX*

Chicken.

There is a list of Stocks as you know that can be generally shorted on the ASX site.

However those that arnet can still be shorted buy using Tricom (Possibly) or CFD's.

What your doing is selling a stock you DONT OWN in the hope of buying it again at a lower price and returning it to its owner.
You keep the profit.
The broker would generally hold a margin for the trade as a security.
If it pays dividends then you must pay them if they are issued during the short.
If it is delisted you are liable for the cost of the stock at the time of delisting so if its a $ and you are borrowing 10000 shares you owe 10K.

tech


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## chicken (12 January 2005)

*Re: ZINIFEX..ZFX*

The market is taking a breather shorts are busy covering their sells...may finish at the same price as yesterday..but heh cannot go up everyday...impossible..still in an uptrend channel....lead,copper,silver,gold up in price..Zinc down to US$1220..see www.zinifex.com.au. someone is trying to cover their shorts of 3 million shares...this stock seems to follow the allORDS...any comments..do your research..this is my opinion  :nuts:


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## chicken (13 January 2005)

*Re: ZINIFEX..ZFX*

Deutsche Bank values the shares at $3 ,,plus,, I still feel $4 is achievable..the shorts got their fill yesterday and have virtually disapeared ,see shortsells on the asx...we were down 2 c but now we may have another rise today...I am glad that at least a reputable Brokinghouse can see  value ...and it said shares are cheap at present price...metal prices are up check www.zinifex.com.au... :


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## tech/a (13 January 2005)

*Re: ZINIFEX..ZFX*

Chart update


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## chicken (17 January 2005)

*Re: ZINIFEX..ZFX*

Good lift today ready to breakout towards $3....Deutsche Bank values this stock at $3..whats your opinion Tech/a has been as high as $2.62...watch this one will suprise in earnings ZINC price is up :


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## tech/a (17 January 2005)

*Re: ZINIFEX..ZFX*

Chicken.

I like it.
Price action is very normal.Nice pullback and now new buyers seeing value.
Today is its highest close.Nice increase in volume.

2nd Channel Target $2.86.


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## chicken (18 January 2005)

*Re: ZINIFEX..ZFX*

Tech/a..what do you think?...might go fo another run tomorrow ZIN<COPPER<LEAD, all up in price...when the anouncements come this one will fly as the market is starting to take note....And Deutsche Bank would have done their numbers ..also check ASX shortsells have all but disapeared..so no one is prepared to stick their neck out...post chart because I have no facility jet..but will be in Aussie in February till November and will them have the gear..good luck to everyone....$3 here we come...


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## tech/a (18 January 2005)

*Re: ZINIFEX..ZFX*

C I have no idea where it may go to.
I havent looked at an exit method yet.
Havent even decided wether to hold log or shorter term.


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## Tric (19 January 2005)

*Re: ZINIFEX..ZFX*



> today -
> comsec: "...small cap Zinc miners also received a boost from metals prices out of LME last night.  3mth zinc reached 7-year high, helping Zinifex close up 3.09% higher to 2.67 cents per share."




seems a solid performer, only floated last may but has performed steadily for holders.  
Thanks chicken for starting the thread.


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## markrmau (19 January 2005)

*Re: ZINIFEX..ZFX*



			
				Tric said:
			
		

> only floated last may



hehehe. You know the history of zfx though don't you? (not that this matters)


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## chicken (19 January 2005)

*Re: ZINIFEX..ZFX*

What a day up and down just checked how many shorts are left...bugger all only 76k....which is silch...so I feel as Deutsche Bank says at least $3...so TECH/a thanks for your graph it looks A1..and their results will speak this time thought they would anounce their quater ..I just dont know...I started the posting when it was $2.36...and it certainly is going up...Yes I know re history...see my discription and history about Zinifex...this company unlike PAS...has very little debt...where by PAS..just had to bloody much and this is the shell from it....they are making $$$$$ whereby PAS lost money...Yahoo has a research on earnings expectation...so..just read the article I posted and it is self explaining...everyone have a niece day..trader and all


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## tech/a (19 January 2005)

*Re: ZINIFEX..ZFX*

Pretty volitile day huge gap open indicating many new buyers jumping over themselves to buy in.
Price managed to close at a new high close level.
If gap holds then this will indicate strength.
Not uncommon for price to trade into the gap.
Still looks solid.
I would expect price to trade within the range of Today for a while.


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## chicken (20 January 2005)

*Re: ZINIFEX..ZFX*

Tech/a...intresting article posted by lookingconfident on ozestock..re Zinifex..UBS values the share at $3.10 at least as the article is to long to post read it there...yes there are a lot more people taking a look at this stock aT present plenty of strength..the Banks are not happy as they bought little but the YANKS are in it and buying more..just goes to show where this stock will be heading..?????  NORTH :iagree:


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## chicken (20 January 2005)

*Re: ZINIFEX..ZFX*

Also, Chinese Smelter cut production by 100k  untill april...Triggers increase in ZINC price...it also MAQUARIE says that there will be a world shortage of 400k tonnes of zinc...they just cant help but make $$$$ at present..so all their other metals they produce will be a bonus......this is the highest price for zinc ..intresting dont you think.....????


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## chicken (20 January 2005)

*Re: ZINIFEX..ZFX*

Friday will be a no event day around the same price as today...but watch it go higher on monday, and tuesday...seems to be the pattern by traders..closed today after hours at $2.645...


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## chicken (20 January 2005)

*Re: ZINIFEX..ZFX*

last sale at 16.38 hour shows in Tradingroom at $2.69...brokers are playing and are buying see after hour trade...lots of strength in this stock some one put their neck out and shortsold 1.1 million shares today...not a good idea I thought...I think it was for  48515 shares the last sale the brokersa are buying for their companies so anything will go tomorrow


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## tech/a (21 January 2005)

*Re: ZINIFEX..ZFX*

Chicken the after hrs sales are simply cross trades nothig to get excited about---normal business.


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## chicken (21 January 2005)

*Re: ZINIFEX..ZFX*

A broker has been working this stock short today..eg..see the 3 sales which went through at $2.56....they were 40k shares...buyers were there for $2.59...this stock will have the same trading pattern than last week..TECH/a do you get my drift..so we may even see $2,85..in the first 2 days next week...someone is really working this stock..up and down... so we shall see if my asumption will be right....TECH/a..your opinion please???


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## tech/a (22 January 2005)

*Re: ZINIFEX..ZFX*

Shorts have little relevance.
Its just an opinion contrary to our own.
It can be wrong or right.
They will have a trading plan just like we do (or should).
Shorting yesterday seems a bit late with more 
risk now after 3 down days.

Tech


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## chicken (22 January 2005)

*Re: ZINIFEX..ZFX*

Zinc,Copper,Lead,Silver,Gold...all metals are up in price check www.Zinifex.com....UBS..has now put a value of $3.15..on these share plenty of upside and it will get there within the next 4 weeks to the anouncements..which will show a stellar performance....read there is a shortage of Zinc..now estimated worldwide of 400k tonnes...and all the other metals produced by ZFX are bonus...they are making $$$$ and because they are NOT hedged can take advantage of the higher prices now that CHINA requires all these metals this group produces..I just cannot see them go wrong ....we are very lucky to be in a share with this much potential...and monday will prove my point...read the article I posted on Zinifex...this one is a goer....$$$$ dollars to be made here...I am holding and my target is $4....I also mentioned Deutsche Bank and they value these shares at $3...so Banks and institution are buying big..see the last sale on friday of 600k shares at $1560000.. now those are the big boys and when they are buying in quantaties...I think 5.5 millin shares went through..it means its strong and intrest is there we may get more USA buyers coming in and then you will see the price go...our largest shareholder is USA based with 60millin shares or 12% so we will see next week but I feel this one is far from being fully priced...make your research...its ready to blow north thats what I feel...check.www.zinifex.com


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## chicken (24 January 2005)

*Re: ZINIFEX..ZFX*

Well, it looks like what I said is so....read the report www.zinifex.com.au anyone who bought will be laughing...annyway we are heading in the right direction...plenty of intrest this morning did not expect the results this morning...they are also exploring around MT ISA,....this coulds really getting intresting...what do you say TECH/a..........   :aus:


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## RichKid (24 January 2005)

*Re: ZINIFEX..ZFX*

Chicken, I like ZFX based on its current up trend and due to the strong Zinc price, but it does get a bit silly when you continue to ramp it so unapologetically, ZFX appears to be perfect. Thanks to TechA we have some balance.
Technically, as long as it sticks to it's current trend I see it continuing, any break of it and time to reconsider- although I'm sure you'll never get out of it since it can only go up in your eyes. A bit of balance always improves the quality of a thread (and the forum).


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## chicken (24 January 2005)

*Re: ZINIFEX..ZFX*

Fair enough I am raving a bit but I feel its one of the stocks a lot of people had overlooked because what happened to PASMINCO...yes read what I posted I also said to check ZINIFEX webside and read the report..this one has a fair amount of meat in it its strong and going the right direction..yes I like what TECH/a posts..but I just want to tell everyone what a stock and what a potential we have got before the Yanks will get in bigger and the the price will really take off... i remember when I bought Newcrest at $1.75...look at it now...also check what they said about their exploration which is underway bloody beautiful...this price could go anywhere...look at newcrest now $17......I feel my $4 are conservative...for what or where it will climb from here....  :aus:


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## chicken (24 January 2005)

*Re: ZINIFEX..ZFX*

I just thought of what you posted...and you know it sounds as if you went short in this stock...well,well,well,....if you did its your own funeral..because check what TECH/a posted...at present ,its a do not do it, because you will get burned....but you must know what you know LOLOLOLOLOLOLOLOLOLO and thats not ramping thats stating a fact


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## tech/a (24 January 2005)

*Re: ZINIFEX..ZFX*

Powering along nicely.
Renewed interest.
This is a continuation of a nice trend.
No sign or reason to doubt that it wont continue.
Im in until price indicates time to get out.
Increased volitility indicates emotion.
But thats what markets move on--up and down.


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## chicken (25 January 2005)

*Re: ZINIFEX..ZFX*

Read what THE AGE...says about ZINIFEX...its all good news for us shareholders...HI HO UP ZINIFEX WILL GO....LOLOLOLOh..or check out www zinifex.com.au


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## chicken (25 January 2005)

*Re: ZINIFEX..ZFX*

here is another intresting thought...I keyed in zinifex..just to find out how much the 20 largest shareholder are holding in stock....84.5% is owned by 20 institution and privat induviduals...that equates to 500million shares and only say 15% is on the market....that is 75million shares for everyone or the public...very tightly held this stock..so..in fact 425million shares are not available....so with Zinc,Lead,Copper,Silver,Gold all up in price...and their own smelters and now into exploration...this could become another WMC..ZFX has got the capacity to do it....any comments ,we all like to hear from anyone on this subject please...


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## chicken (26 January 2005)

*Re: ZINIFEX..ZFX*

Well, what are your thoughts today with the  dow up ????....another day I feel an upmovement towards $3.......check www.zinifex.com.au   gold is down a little, but ZINC and lead is strong...we are now all aware that there is a shortage of ZINC as much as 400k for the year...so it looks like the price will be as it is or higher...and did anyone notice zinifex exploration their gold find or grams per tonne of earth...I think its around 129gms per tonne..I must check it again because it sounds phenominal...I am not a professor but read all there is about zinifex...Ubs values the shares at $3.10.....Deutsche BANK at $3...I say $4...and we will see where it will take us..it certainly will be higher than the present shareprice for sure....make your research...and let me not be one of the only poster on this board...TECH/a...what is your opinion....????


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## tech/a (26 January 2005)

*Re: ZINIFEX..ZFX*

On this current up move price is gapping up on each new open.
There is also an abundance of sellers as price then stays reasonably stable(yesterday) with a large increase in Volume.
This stocks performance is linked to ZINC prices if they remain in demand so will this and other Zinc stocks.
This is a nice up move so will stick around until price tells me otherwise.


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## chicken (27 January 2005)

*Re: ZINIFEX..ZFX*

Should see $3...next week U seller trying to keep it at these levels..my guess its one of the brokers...


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## tech/a (27 January 2005)

*Re: ZINIFEX..ZFX*

Hmmm

*$2.86 Channel Target price reached*
Got no idea how that happens but it does(often) spot on.

Ill have a closer look tonight.


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## chicken (27 January 2005)

*Re: ZINIFEX..ZFX*

renewed buying...Maquarie just posted a article re Zinc...looks like the Chinese are net importers and needing more than 50k this year also price will be slightly higher or the same this year as there is a shortage of Zinc...read the article...


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## chicken (27 January 2005)

*Re: ZINIFEX..ZFX*

what a day....up and down like a jojo....I see some of the sellers/buyers are trying to shorten this stock tomorrow..Tech/a we need your expertie.......


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## chicken (28 January 2005)

*Re: ZINIFEX..ZFX*

Today is a good day for buying this stock...it will take off on monday again..its been in this trading pattern for the last 4 weeks...Zinc,Silver,Lead all up in price overnight check www.zinifex.com.au.  we will see $3..next week..as I said today is another bite at the cherry...monday we will go higher for sure


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## chicken (29 January 2005)

*Re: ZINIFEX..ZFX*

I did not expect that the share price would closed on the high...I would have thought it would be down 5c....Tech/a..whats your opinion..???? mind you Zinc went up again , and so did lead....but I feel it still will nudge $3..the coming week...lots of intrest here...I also understand that their financials will be out on the 18th february...maybe a lot of buyers are position themself in this stock for that announcements..annyone who has any news on this stock please post even if it is your first comment we all like to hear from you good or bad as we all are here for the same reason...


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## tech/a (29 January 2005)

*Re: ZINIFEX..ZFX*

ZFX


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## brerwallabi (29 January 2005)

*Re: ZINIFEX..ZFX*

Not the only cab on the zinc rank, CBH and PEM have been doing nicely too. Exited CBH awaiting fall back, Pem acquired low and mid 70's almost broke the $1.00 yesterday, zinc looks like having a good run, comment below from mining news. 
"THE price of zinc could remain close to its current level of US58c a pound for the rest of the year, according to the chairman of the big Canadian zinc miner, Teck Cominco."


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## chicken (31 January 2005)

*Re: ZINIFEX..ZFX*

Right, they are not the only miner in zinc...the crux of the matter they have their own smeltering facility...so they are in a position where the costs are controlled by Zinifex...after all it costs to build smelters such as what they have got and any miners,,,,well they will have to talk to zinifex...and the production well it cost money...I believe that Pasminco shelled out many Billions to build these facilities...thats where this company has it sussed...they control their costs through their own production...whereby miners will have to ask niecly to get it to smelter...and with a shortage of 395k tonnes..they are in a box seat and can decide what the market pays for smeltering  their ZINC....intresting isitnot...So..they zinifex get a double whamy..mining,and smeltering...ZINC, is up check www.zinifex.com.au


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## chicken (1 February 2005)

*Re: ZINIFEX..ZFX*

Gold,Silver down in price...ZINC,UP to A$1683 a tonne...copper,LEAD all up in price check www.zinifex.com.au....


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## chicken (2 February 2005)

*Re: ZINIFEX..ZFX*

As Tech/a said if we keep above $2.86  the resistance is broken..and the share will go to $3...plus...anouncements in or on the 18th february...lot of intrest and I believe we may see a DIVIdent or sharebuyback...dont know which...annyway...my target is $4.....


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## chicken (3 February 2005)

*Re: ZINIFEX..ZFX*

Techy/a..what do you say...its broken the trendline and its going higher...there is a lot of intrest in this stock...we saw a lot of action yesterday..today may be the same...Tech/a is there a new trendline..I am just wondering...we most probably will see $3...today...


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## doctorj (3 February 2005)

*Re: ZINIFEX..ZFX*

I'm not sure what's crazier, the run that ZFX has had or the way I've sat back and just watched it.


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## chicken (3 February 2005)

*Re: ZINIFEX..ZFX*

asked yourself....if you dont buy a lottery ticket..you cant win the price...I would say if you know the horse is going to win..well what do you do ,NOT WHAT YOU DID...The company has VERY LITTLE DEBT...THERE IS A SHORTAGE OF ZINC 395k tonnes...ZFX are making nearly 46c a share and you asked this question...have a bit of faith..because being negative in life does not make you a buck...you never will make an APRENTICE with RONALD TRUMP....or I forgot they are now the 3rd largest producer of SILVER...so what have they got ...ZINC,LEAD,SILVER,COPPER,and a bit of GOLD...and as the dirctors said...we picked up the company from PASMINCO receivers for a song...PASMINCO paid many billions to build this company...and we are now benefiting this situation....they are making $$$$$$$$$ I told everyone what a steal this share is and you still are sitting and watching the share go up....well just sit and watch it go higher my target is $4.....


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## chicken (4 February 2005)

*Re: ZINIFEX..ZFX*

Another strong day..Zfx is getting there....my target is $4...any comments please from TECH/a...


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## Fleeta (4 February 2005)

*Re: ZINIFEX..ZFX*

I'm hearing you Doctor, you are a genius Chicken! I wish I jumped on, but now its too late I think...I really don't know about $4!


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## chicken (5 February 2005)

*Re: ZINIFEX..ZFX*

Think,the way I see it and the research I made...and the demand from them is such that $4  might even be conservative...so I feel this stock will go higher...they have hardly any debt..and are making $$$$$...whereby PASMINCO who was this company was in debt over a billion $$...and thats the difference now...they have not got the banks chasing them for money..and the directors said they are undergeared and need to grow the company...meaning they are looking for acreage to mine...so they are into exploration...so the future looks bright..and shareholder must be realizing that there is a great future for a company with little debt...and with the acreage they are holding for exploration...and of course..having their own smeltering places..and are NOT dependent on others makes this an intresting and profitable investment...the other share I posted is BPC..see what I said there...its happening what I posted..I just spend time in reading about this subject...the best magazine I found is called SHARES...I study it and they are just about 100%.  right..they seem to have their research spot on..it works for me..so I hope it works for you as well...


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## tech/a (5 February 2005)

*Re: ZINIFEX..ZFX*

Sorry been otherwise occupied.


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## chicken (8 February 2005)

*Re: ZINIFEX..ZFX*

Just come back to QLD..Its hot at present...and I am looking at ZFX,,BPC,,, and the one everyone overlooked...TLS...ZFX is moving very niecly and TECH/a I like to personally thank you for posting the graph..it is looking tremendous...and better to come...I read the SHARE magazine and what I SAY comes from people who spend all their time in research...and you know they have been right all along..I Just read about it and follow their advise but also follow my own thought..as I have been involved in the market since the early 80...so I do know a little of what I post...we may get a little drawback today...the dow is of a couple points...but there again who knows what will happen..but good luck to everyone my target is still $4...a share,,


----------



## chicken (8 February 2005)

*Re: ZINIFEX..ZFX*

As I said this morning you never know well I go with the flow and 95c to go and I will have reached my target..of $4....


----------



## chicken (9 February 2005)

*Re: ZINIFEX..ZFX*

IF you look at TECH/a graph...we are still well above the trendline..a big buyer is working this stock real hard could be the yanks wanting more stock at a lower price...ZFX will supprise on the 18th february...the trend has been monday to wednesday up and then work it down..watch it go on monday again...after all 8 million shares traded today...some one wants these shares badly....I stay in because you will see on monday...and $23 million is no chicken feed


----------



## chicken (9 February 2005)

*Re: ZINIFEX..ZFX*

I JUST CHECKED...it bounced of the trendline at $2,83...about 5000 shares were sold at that price..this trader is a smart cookie..and it finished around $2.89..it will just linger around this price this is a buying opportunity again...AND monday he will worke this share higher ...this trader has DEEP pockets..see how much he spend today...little shareholders sold and he bought up large


----------



## chicken (10 February 2005)

*Re: ZINIFEX..ZFX*

THE TRADERS are having a ball today...or may I SAY the TRADER who was selling as well as buying...clever trick he sold it down and picked up niecly..as I POSTED BEFOR THERE IS A SHORTAGE OF 395000 TONNES OF ZINC and price will not fall it might even increase...we will be back over $3 next week as their result will be out..I CERTAINLY HAVE NOT SOLD MY SHARES...$4..is stll my target..did annyone notice the increase of turnover in this stock..???????


----------



## tech/a (10 February 2005)

*Re: ZINIFEX..ZFX*

Sold on close $2.81.

Broken trendline pretty heavy volume both days.
While I expect a retracement to the upside dont know when that will occur.


----------



## chicken (10 February 2005)

*Re: ZINIFEX..ZFX*

IT BROKE because as I SAID IT WAS MANIPULATED BY ONE BROKER..watch when their financials will come out nearly 50 million $$$$ have been dealt in the last 2 days...and I feel you will see next week what happens ,well you sold..we will see the results and the broker who bought will be laughing all the way..he has been selling as well as buying and he has DEEP POCKETS,,,,BUT FUNNY HOW IT CAME BACK TO THE TRENDLINE..does that not make you wonder..BUT I HOPE we get your oppinion next week thanks all the same,,,,my target is still $4...Deutsche BANK says $3...


----------



## tech/a (10 February 2005)

*Re: ZINIFEX..ZFX*

Well I could well be wrong it wouldnt be the first time.

I just trade the charts.
Happy to continue commenting technically if you want.
My feeling from the charts is that it will at sometime retest the high,if it fails then it will then make a lower low IE Tank.
If it makes a new high after this pullback then technically chicken you could be right.

Time will tell.


----------



## chicken (10 February 2005)

*Re: ZINIFEX..ZFX*

THE LAST 2 SALEes on tradingroom was $2,89.....SO, we may all jet get a supprise ...there is a broker who is into this stock real heavy after all $50 million IS not from us small investors...its the big boys..check on tradingroom which gives you the no of shares sod per sale makes intresting reading...at present the sceem is 2 to 3 days up and 2 days down he is a big trader,,or broker who has plenty of $$$$$..and he plays this stock ...but if you only work on the graph..well we will see tomorrow as I feel the broker may be working it up again...


----------



## chicken (11 February 2005)

*Re: ZINIFEX..ZFX*

With the dow up the market will be up..did anyone notice this stock follows the dow..looking at the depth it looks  positive this morning..TECH/a what do you say


----------



## tech/a (11 February 2005)

*Re: ZINIFEX..ZFX*

We will both know at about 10.30am.

My guess is that it will open around yesterdays close maybe up a few cents and not be able to hold.Todays trading will be very insightful for future short term direction.

A strong rise and new high is what you want chicken.Even if it takes a few days.Thats not being indicated in the charts YET.

Talk again in a few Hrs.


----------



## chicken (11 February 2005)

*Re: ZINIFEX..ZFX*

I noticed this big trader does not show his hand quickly..and I feel it in my bones that as the anouncement will be on the 18th feb..so I heared we should know what is happening..their report will be excelent..so I keep my eyes on the screen...and we might get some pleasent supprises


----------



## chicken (11 February 2005)

*Re: ZINIFEX..ZFX*

Well..was I not right..pity you sold yesterday..its going bananas....HI HO UP ZINIFEX WILL GO>>>>LOLOLOLOLOLO..any comments TECH/a


----------



## tech/a (11 February 2005)

*Re: ZINIFEX..ZFX*

C.

Im happy with the decision that was the plan.

As for today all looks good at this point.
Price is having trouble at this point staying above the open gap price.

I have a feeling this may range between $3.04 and 2.75 for a while.
Anyway New highs will be what Chickens waiting for.

If the rest of the share holders are as enthusiastic as you then shouldnt be a problem.


----------



## chicken (11 February 2005)

*Re: ZINIFEX..ZFX*

Tech/a...the results next week will do the talking...hope to hear from you would you be so kind and post your graph tonight..would appreciate that..thanks chicken


----------



## tech/a (11 February 2005)

*Re: ZINIFEX..ZFX*

My tech veiw


----------



## chicken (12 February 2005)

*Re: ZINIFEX..ZFX*

On the 18thfebruary their finacials will do the talking...also noticed 84% of all shares are owned by 20 shareholders...and I understand the Yanks are still adding to their holding I wonder why ????  Anyway thanks for the graph...the brokers brought it down after hours by 3c..from $2.96.....so they are manipulating so it will not open to high on monday...still a lot of intrest especially next week watch their anouncement on the 18th...getting more intresting by the day..my target is still $4....anyone who wants to read what I post go to www.zinifex.com.au....its all there


----------



## markrmau (13 February 2005)

*Re: ZINIFEX..ZFX*



			
				chicken said:
			
		

> the brokers brought it down after hours by 3c..from $2.96.....so they are manipulating so it will not open to high on monday




I don't think this is any form of manipulation - this happens all the time. For example, there was a special crossing of $15.92 for NCM whereas it closed at $16.54. If anyone can an explanation, I am interested.

Share price manipulation occurs when you put in an undisclosed bid


----------



## tech/a (13 February 2005)

*Re: ZINIFEX..ZFX*

This occures when a broker has both the buyer and the seller and the price is agreed upon.Its then not open cry as such.


----------



## chicken (15 February 2005)

*Re: ZINIFEX..ZFX*

Going along still smoothly...on the 18th february we will get the report should be A1....so friday we should see the big lift...as their result should be fantastic....Tech/a any comments


----------



## chicken (16 February 2005)

*Re: ZINIFEX..ZFX*

Man..there is some strenght in this stock I put an order in for 16000 shares at $2.97...and there are NO SELLERS at that price..I think it will hold and go higher after the announcement..what do you say Tech/a...still holding my other parcel of shares my target is still $4


----------



## tech/a (16 February 2005)

*Re: ZINIFEX..ZFX*

ZFX 5 min chart with a few comments.


----------



## chicken (17 February 2005)

*Re: ZINIFEX..ZFX*

Thanks Tech/a...we will see tomorrow when announcements come out if I was right...I feel the results will be excellent..see BHP..all the resourses are up and with a shortage of ZINC...see www.zinifex.com.au...price of ZINC way up so if everything goes to plan the directors will all be happy including shareholders


----------



## tech/a (17 February 2005)

*Re: ZINIFEX..ZFX*

This morning


----------



## tech/a (17 February 2005)

*Re: ZINIFEX..ZFX*

Look'n good.
Look'n strong


----------



## doctorj (17 February 2005)

*Re: ZINIFEX..ZFX*

And I'm STILL sitting here on the sidelines!


----------



## chicken (17 February 2005)

*Re: ZINIFEX..ZFX*

Doctorj..keep sitting on the sideline because we all sometimes sit on our hands..each to his own..see what happens tomorrow..we got a few short sellers..they may get burned if the report will be what I think it will be..A1


----------



## chicken (17 February 2005)

*Re: ZINIFEX..ZFX*

Thanks Tech/a...looks promising thanks for the graph..all helps..happy trading


----------



## tech/a (17 February 2005)

*Re: ZINIFEX..ZFX*

ZFX looks strong.
Came up tonight on a techtrader search as did
MCR.Thats the one Ill trade tommorow.
But will keep an eye on ZFX.


----------



## chicken (18 February 2005)

*Re: ZINIFEX..ZFX*

I hope everyone is making a DOLLAR..I am making plenty,,,,Not many shares run like this one..I starteted posting when it was $2.26..lok at it now...waiting for results they said today........


----------



## doctorj (18 February 2005)

*Re: ZINIFEX..ZFX*

Results are out.


----------



## tech/a (18 February 2005)

*Re: ZINIFEX..ZFX*

Fantastic enough to have chickens laying eggs!


----------



## chicken (18 February 2005)

*Re: ZINIFEX..ZFX*

Well, its holding and seen offers at $3.99...whats going on


----------



## tech/a (18 February 2005)

*Re: ZINIFEX..ZFX*

You talking about pre open Chicken?

The $3.99 bids.
If so they are just loading in at the top of the que.
$3.99 isnt what it would be sold for its an average of bids and asks at open.

Price seems to be adjusting itself to a realistic level after morning enthusiasm.Note how support held.
You know I really cant understand why it does that time and again!

5 min tick chart.


----------



## chicken (18 February 2005)

*Re: ZINIFEX..ZFX*

Have a look at Asx..shortsell list some one sold 2million shares and needs now to deliver I wonder why he thought the price will fall..may see another small fall so he can deliver someone is either buying up large or the small investors active I really do not know


----------



## chicken (19 February 2005)

*Re: ZINIFEX..ZFX*

Intresting article in THE AUSTRALIAN...re Zinifex...says EARNING SUPPRISE..I was not at all supprised having followed this company since April...in fact I am buying more at these prices as the share price will climb to my target of $4...ZINC prices are now over $1700 a tonne and there is a shortage..I feel the next quater is even better due to ZINC..and metals up...I hope some of the old Pasminco shareholders bought and are in for the ride..getting their money back...read the australian..paper intresting write up...will fire up this share price even more....happy trading everyone


----------



## tech/a (19 February 2005)

*Re: ZINIFEX..ZFX*

Well done Chicken let those profits run!!


----------



## chicken (19 February 2005)

*Re: ZINIFEX..ZFX*

Thanks a million for this graph..makes it clear where we go from here...not many like that ,,,I will let the profit run on this one....


----------



## chicken (22 February 2005)

*Re: ZINIFEX..ZFX*

Well, what does everyone say now..she is just going,going UP....and the strength is just unreal...I hope everyone bought.....$4 is my target but I think I might have to adjust that higher...what do you say TECH/a


----------



## chicken (23 February 2005)

*Re: ZINIFEX..ZFX*

WELL, today we had our small corection...other stocks followed but I feel this happens everytime the Dow spits the dummy...we are still on track the next quater announcement should and will be better due to the price of ZINC being short worldwide..good time in buying in for the next leg up...TECH/a what do you say....I say monday we are up again in a big way...


----------



## tech/a (23 February 2005)

*Re: ZINIFEX..ZFX*

As Im not on it now Im looking at it a little differently,more as a possible re buy but for that there is still a wait.


----------



## chicken (23 February 2005)

*Re: ZINIFEX..ZFX*

This trend as one can see on your chart happends every week..3 days up 2 days down it clearly shows it on your graph..the company is well in profit and as someone told me if the ZINC price had been as high as it is now Pasminco would have never folded..also Zinifex got the assets at a song..wonder why the brokers did not see that..even though they say their assets are $1.5 billion the situation is ,they are a lot better or higher..if you had to build this company from the ground..its just that at the time thats what it was worth to the receiver...so its stil cheap even at this price..think about it ..THATS my opinion...also GSJB WERE just reported..FUTURE LOOKS BRIGHT FOR ZINC...And they feel that the present price could go higher...there is a 395000tonnes shortage this year for this metal...so my target is still $4..could even go higher,,IMHO


----------



## tech/a (23 February 2005)

*Re: ZINIFEX..ZFX*

C you could be right.
But at some point the market will decide on what fair value is for ZFX.
That maybe $15 or it maybe $3.20.Profits will determine value not the shortage.The way the company is percieved will also determine price.

Currently the experts think its good value.The chart certaintly concurs.

Interesting to watch although the current uptrend is dominating.Long is a good place to be.


----------



## emily (23 February 2005)

*Re: ZINIFEX..ZFX*

yep, zfx looks good to me, in the long run that is....this is one to hold !


emily
happy trading


----------



## chicken (24 February 2005)

*Re: ZINIFEX..ZFX*

Tec/a..I agree I am staying long...as long as the Dow does not spit the dummy to often we should see $4...which is my target but it could go much higher as they have orders coming out of their ears..good way to be


----------



## chicken (25 February 2005)

*Re: ZINIFEX..ZFX*

TECH/a...have a look at ZINC Price...nearly $1800 a tonne...and look at the share price unreal..there is someone buying PLENTY...WONDER WHY..mabe there is something up...big volume going through..I am letting my profits run...up 58%..on my shareholding in 3 months...


----------



## chicken (27 February 2005)

*Re: ZINIFEX..ZFX*

I mentioned this before 20 shareholders holding 84% of this companies stock...only16% held by small investors or traders...so very tightly held stock...though we saw 10million shares traded on friday..I wonder why...will go higher for sure as they upgraded their profit for the full year to nearly 100%....happy trading..my target is $4..but I feel it will go past that..


----------



## chicken (28 February 2005)

*Re: ZINIFEX..ZFX*

Tech/a...did you see the orders going through the last minute..I think my $4 might be conservative,,lots of buyers...who dont show their hand...as I said before 100% increase of forcast profit got to be just tremendous...


----------



## chicken (28 February 2005)

*Re: ZINIFEX..ZFX*

just to say I hope some of you old PAS shareholder took a ride on this share when I started posting and made up your looses...because my target of $4 will be reached and I feel it will go higher than that..happy trading everyone


----------



## chicken (1 March 2005)

*Re: ZINIFEX..ZFX*

Tech/a..what do you think...the Dow spit the dummy and ZFX took off like a hare this share is strong...my target of $4...is in sight..I watched the last few minutes of trading..man some one is getting into this stock in a big way I feel its a definite hold..going up very quickly ....what is your opinion..what is the graph...thanks again


----------



## chicken (2 March 2005)

*Re: ZINIFEX..ZFX*

ZFX..still heading north what a share..my $4 just about there....the most important thing also are their explorations..and a lot of good news should filter through soon...so I feel the value of ZFX is more like 2.5billion...taking in account if you had to rebuild this company...so the share price is still very attractive,,,bought more today at $3.42...this is a MELBOURNE CUP WINNER...lean mean and profitable...management are doing a great job after all to say their profit will nearly be  100% above their forecast..job well done


----------



## chicken (3 March 2005)

*Re: ZINIFEX..ZFX*

This is our weekend dance..2 steps forward and one back...buying opportunity here...bought some more today for $3.28... just about every thursday and friday we have this dance...see it rise on monday higher..$4 in sight


----------



## chicken (5 March 2005)

*Re: ZINIFEX..ZFX*

Nothing has changed the company is making a lot of $$$the ZINC price is up our forcast increased by nearly 100%..and the big trader who manipulates this stock has DEEP pockets he buys and sells at the same time..buying more as the price came back..but monday we will see a recovery..I hope because NOTHING HAS CHANGED..the company is on track what they have told the market..there are some old PAS SHAREHOLDERS who dont wish us well...the broker who wrote an article only 6 lines was vague..nothing constructive and we may see a prosecution as what he said is not true,,can you believe he used the word UNDERPERFORM..this is after the company said the are increasing their profit forcast by nearly 100%..its all there..I feel that anyone who lkes to read about the company go to www.zinifex.com.au...or yahoo.com.au   They have a write up on ZINC..REUTERS report..and how Zinc is short for the next 4 years...makes you wonder who this broker wanting to tell this fairytale too..I personal think he is BUYING stock..so anything goes..I hope he did not upset the largest shareholder as they would sue and that broker better be prepared to answert to the ASX..and we dont want to finish like MIM went because these swiss people play for keeps..we may already be on their radar screen..who knows..so happy trading and I wish you well


----------



## chicken (7 March 2005)

*Re: ZINIFEX..ZFX*

Need I say more...Tech/a...what do you think..looks like what we had the other day...spooky I thought but there again we had over 1 million shares wanted on the buying side,,,should go higher tomorrow... anyone who has any vital informations please post anything


----------



## chicken (8 March 2005)

*Re: ZINIFEX..ZFX*

What a ride we have in this stock..Tech/a..we need your opinion or graph...its a rollercoaster...


----------



## tech/a (8 March 2005)

*Re: ZINIFEX..ZFX*

You dont need a chart on this.
Far from a rollercoaster!!
Here it is anyway,boringly profitable!


----------



## chicken (8 March 2005)

*Re: ZINIFEX..ZFX*

Tech/a..boringly profitable..this sounds like sweet music..I think my $4.target should be soon...others on other boards are also very happy...as someone said chicken is the winner by over 50%...great call I thought when I started posting everyone thought what is with him..well www.zinifex.com.au...and shares magazine and my personal hunch found me this share and 10million shares traded..what more can I say but I like having boringly profitable shares...the other one I like is BPC...which featured on channel 7 this morning..brokers have a big BUY...I bought plenty...its a defencive stock..as some one said boring..but I hope it will be as profitable as ZFX..So everyone have a profitable year...anyone who could contribute please post here as we all like to know what is on your mind or you may come out with real news....which could be important to all of us thank you all


----------



## tech/a (9 March 2005)

*Re: ZINIFEX..ZFX*

BPC.

You know my broker?
Bought at $1.02.

Perhaps we should start a BPC thread?


----------



## RichKid (9 March 2005)

*Re: ZINIFEX..ZFX*



			
				tech/a said:
			
		

> BPC.
> You know my broker?
> Bought at $1.02.
> Perhaps we should start a BPC thread?




You can be sure Chicken has got the ball rolling (for those who haven't seen it, the BPC thread): https://www.aussiestockforums.com/forums/showthread.php?p=8305&highlight=bpc#post8305


----------



## chicken (9 March 2005)

*Re: ZINIFEX..ZFX*

Thanks Rich kit...intresting situation..ZFX..check all metals are way UP...www.zinifex.com.au   all there for everyone to see...Maquarie featured zinifex as a possible takeover target..intresting I thought...I think 2.5 billon could buy this group noticed 3 directors are KIWIs..all very professionals..2 from Fletcher challange and 1 from Carter holt...good management ..also..where have you got a group..they explor,they produce and they sell the finshed product....PAS was on the right track...but had too much debt..pity what could have been..but Zinifex is now making up for it....my target of $4 will easily bee reached..and higher..check their assets their sales and their profits..if they have more gold,zinc,lead or nickel or copper discoveries a $10 share is possible..


----------



## chicken (10 March 2005)

*Re: ZINIFEX..ZFX*

the brokers started the dance on wednesday..hold tight will go higher just shortsellers trying to fill their sales..let them bleed dont sell to them...just my personal opinion...but decide yourself what you want to do..see TECH/a s graph that tells the story...


----------



## chicken (11 March 2005)

*Re: ZINIFEX..ZFX*

check www.zinifex.com.au    the ZINC price jumped to $1788 overnight its up a massive $17...as I said reading what the metal people are saying..ZINC is short by a massive 395000 tonnes worldwide..make your research..the price is telling us that this is so...


----------



## The Barbarian Investor (11 March 2005)

*Re: ZINIFEX..ZFX*

I'm on board the Zinifex Train -with a stop loss set of course and progressive pofit stops set as the train moves onwards and upwards (depending upon market conditions of course)


----------



## The Barbarian Investor (11 March 2005)

*Re: ZINIFEX..ZFX*

3 Months as at today


----------



## chicken (11 March 2005)

*Re: ZINIFEX..ZFX*

Barbarian,,,,monday the stock will rise to wednesday and then the traders are shortening the stock..not many being sold today..there are 800k in shorts so they have to buy them for delivery..see ASX..under shortsell intresting reading


----------



## chicken (14 March 2005)

*Re: ZINIFEX..ZFX*

ZINC up to $1790,,,,,check www.zinifex.com.au


----------



## whizz21 (14 March 2005)

*Re: ZINIFEX..ZFX*

Hi Chicken, I'm new to the stock market. What do you mean by 'see ASX..under shortsell intresting reading' ? where do I find that?  Cheers


----------



## malachii (14 March 2005)

*Re: ZINIFEX..ZFX*

Have we seen a double top in this stock (2nd march and 9th march)???  If it goes down today (mon) if I'm drawing my lines right I think it may be breaking its uptrend. 

What do you think tech/a??

Malachii


----------



## chicken (14 March 2005)

*Re: ZINIFEX..ZFX*

the highest was $3.48c....and the next was $3.45..it was not a double top


----------



## malachii (14 March 2005)

*Re: ZINIFEX..ZFX*

I agree - they weren't exact but there again - they very rarely are,  It is also starting to concern me that the price seems to have broken the uptrend line.  It could all be just a hiccup - but there again it may not be.  I use options with this one so need to be fairly quick on the reactions - I've taken a part profit today and also late last week.  I'm not by any means saying this is the top and it is going to crash from here.  I guess I'm just being cautious and also wondering how others see it.


----------



## Warren Buffet II (14 March 2005)

*Re: ZINIFEX..ZFX*



			
				chicken said:
			
		

> the highest was $3.48c....and the next was $3.45..it was not a double top




You do not need the same price to have  a double-top.

Have a read to the next info:

Sometimes the two peaks comprising a double top are not at exactly the same price level. This does not necessarily render the pattern invalid. Murphy points out that investors should be less concerned if the second peak does not hit the high of the first peak. If the second peak is higher than the first, however, investors should show caution because the pattern may be in the process of resuming its uptrend. Analysts advise that if the second peak exceeds the first by more than 3%, the pattern may not be a double top. Similarly, if the second peak stays higher than the first peak by more than a couple of days, then the pattern may not be a true double top.


----------



## Warren Buffet II (14 March 2005)

*Re: ZINIFEX..ZFX*

14-Mar 14:58:47

There are 570,882 shares for sale right now @ 3.150, anyone wants to buy?


----------



## chicken (14 March 2005)

*Re: ZINIFEX..ZFX*

Nothing has changed their finicials are the same their production is up..their profit is up everything is sold...ZINC is higher..its just traders playing..now we know where WMC is going well I wonder on which radar screene we are on...the company is sound...so what is the problem..re shortsells..its www.asx.com. au./data/shortsell.txt.I have not checked but must do so as last time I looked 800k shares were wanted


----------



## chicken (14 March 2005)

*Re: ZINIFEX..ZFX*

I just checked so the broker has bought 300k...shares which he sold short for deliveries...only 500k left so he will work this share tomorrow to get rid of his shorts..then as the company will buy their own shares he will bring the price up..its a game they play...the company is sound..its just one broker working it real hard,,,I have not sold because 84% is held by 20 shareholders and they have not sold just a few millions went through...by sharetraders..


----------



## chicken (14 March 2005)

*Re: ZINIFEX..ZFX*

Warren Buffet yea there are a few on sale but the buys and sells just about equal...as soon as they anounce their exploration finds everyone will scramble to buy back in..NOTHING HAS CHANGED,....my targety is still $4...and their profit EPS still stands at 45c...


----------



## Warren Buffet II (14 March 2005)

*Re: ZINIFEX..ZFX*



			
				chicken said:
			
		

> I just checked so the broker has bought 300k...shares which he sold short for deliveries...only 500k left so he will work this share tomorrow to get rid of his shorts..




Short selling   

If you are short-selling shares is because we think the price is going down, is that right?




			
				chicken said:
			
		

> then as the company will buy their own shares he will bring the price up..its a game they play...the company is sound..its just one broker working it real hard,,,I have not sold because 84% is held by 20 shareholders and they have not sold just a few millions went through...by sharetraders..




The company will buy their own shares, that is right $70 mil, but also they do not want to buy too high.

Is going to be interesting this week.


----------



## chicken (14 March 2005)

*Re: ZINIFEX..ZFX*

Brokers shortsell shares as they have leverage..they buy and sell at the same time and can therefore direct the market..either up or down..nothing to do with a share will fall...when you are in this position you can retched the share UP...or DOWN...its a plan if you can play with millions..and ZFX is a typical case where this is happening...it will settle down again as it has run hard but will rise as soon as we get more news the company is debt free..its got a good cashflow..and any longterm holder will benefit..and its a diversified miner with hugh potential...


----------



## tech/a (14 March 2005)

*Re: ZINIFEX..ZFX*

Chicken

Do you honestly believe this conspiracy rubbish you espouse!

Price movement is simply supply and demand.
Some think it cheap others expensive.
When more think its expensive than cheap then the price drops to a level where buyers return.

People trying to explain why their beliefs arent panning out as they think------ look for reasons why.

Thats what your doing!


----------



## doctorj (14 March 2005)

*Re: ZINIFEX..ZFX*

Poppycock!

Price movement has nothing to do with supply and demand, its a function of the phases of the moon and the number of days to the next solstice!


----------



## tech/a (14 March 2005)

*Re: ZINIFEX..ZFX*

Yeh that too!!

I knew that---take a look at any Random fractal its bleeding obvious.


----------



## chicken (15 March 2005)

*Re: ZINIFEX..ZFX*

Funny, how the big seller disapeared today....maybe your graph shows that it will rise today..we shall see nothing has changed with the company..I also check another stock report side and one of the brokers emailed me that he was shorting this stock..may rise today but I shall keep an eye on them..the company is sound and all their prospects are on target...re my theory...retching shares up or down this broker I know does it all the time as he manages a big fund...if you have deep pockets its not a problem as it is not illegal to do that...one way of doing business...my target is still $4..but it may take a little longer to get there...ZINC is up check www.zinifex.com.au


----------



## chicken (15 March 2005)

*Re: ZINIFEX..ZFX*

The buyers have returned it looks as if the shorts are staying away...anyway good luck to everyone..


----------



## malachii (15 March 2005)

*Re: ZINIFEX..ZFX*

Good to see a bounce off the last line.  I'd like to see a couple of days of increases now before the selling starts again.

Malachii


----------



## chicken (15 March 2005)

*Re: ZINIFEX..ZFX*

I agree with you noticed the shorts have not increased..on the ASX..so a uptrend tomorrow..this stock is volatile..84% is owned by 20 shareholders they are not selling..only 16% is available meaning 75million shares..are  avail;able for trading..still a few shares..should rise again tomorrow..silver is starting to get a mention...ZINC is $1799....a tone check www.zinifex.com.au  and read all about it


----------



## tech/a (15 March 2005)

*Re: ZINIFEX..ZFX*

Only a higher high will convince me that this stock hasnt found its percieved(By the maket) value. Could go sideways!


----------



## malachii (15 March 2005)

*Re: ZINIFEX..ZFX*

I agree Tach/a - I'll be watching this current rally(?????) pretty closely I think!

Malachii


----------



## chicken (16 March 2005)

*Re: ZINIFEX..ZFX*

I got this from another board...check www.kitcometals.com   the chart for ZINC and where it is heading..I said all along ZINC is short..via Macquarie report..on that webside you will get the price of metals plus ZINC by week,by months,by year..noticed the curve going up..most intresting..I feel this is a good find for people to get their latest update..I find it most intresting good for ZINIFEX...


----------



## chicken (16 March 2005)

*Re: ZINIFEX..ZFX*

check www.kitcometals.com    under historicals of zinc...intresting to see how this stockpile is shrinking fast...check it yourself I have been saying all along that Macqurie said there will be a shortage well the graph clearly shows that..so any one who says differently please check that side


----------



## Warren Buffet II (16 March 2005)

*Re: ZINIFEX..ZFX*



			
				chicken said:
			
		

> Brokers shortsell shares as they have leverage..they buy and sell at the same time and can therefore direct the market..either up or down..nothing to do with a share will fall...when you are in this position you can retched the share UP...or DOWN...its a plan if you can play with millions..and ZFX is a typical case where this is happening...it will settle down again as it has run hard but will rise as soon as we get more news the company is debt free..its got a good cashflow..and any longterm holder will benefit..and its a diversified miner with hugh potential...




I disagree with your definition of shortselling, if someone is shortselling is because they believe the price is going down.

This is the definition I found:

- Short Selling

The selling of a security that the seller does not own, or any sale that is completed by the delivery of a security borrowed by the seller. Short sellers assume that they will be able to buy the stock at a lower amount than the price at which they sold short. 

Selling short is the opposite of going long. That is, short sellers make money if the stock goes down in price. 

This is an advanced trading strategy with many unique risks and pitfalls. Novice investors are advised to avoid short sales. 

Ref: http://www.investopedia.com/terms/s/shortselling.asp


----------



## whizz21 (16 March 2005)

*Re: ZINIFEX..ZFX*

Date: 16/3/2005 
Author: Ian Howarth 
Source: The Australian Financial Review --- Page: 21 

Australian lead and zinc group, Zinifex, is moving in a new direction. It hasunveiled a long-term plan to focus primarily on mining, and reduce its smeltingactivities. It will also focus on metals like gallium and germanium that it canproduce from its own zinc concentrates. Zinifex is the reincarnation of thefailed Pasminco. The rise in metals prices has already lifted Zinifex'sshare price, which is trading at around the $A3.21 mark. The big rise in theshare price of Zinifex began in early 2005, when the group's marketcapitalisation rose by $A800 million. Zinifex is now worth around $A1.6 billion


----------



## chicken (16 March 2005)

*Re: ZINIFEX..ZFX*

check   www.kitcometals.com    ZINC is higher by $6 US a tonne and the brokers are shortselling...makes you wonder what is going on...there is one broker selling this stock down why...I do not know but someone is picking up stock cheap..its a big riddle..but we should soon know in the next few days...


----------



## TjamesX (16 March 2005)

*Re: ZINIFEX..ZFX*

From a poster on another forum I read (and I take a lot of notice of) - credit to "Full Time Investor"



> I bought at $1.80 in Sept. 2004. ZFX was undervalued by the market for many months since the IPO in April 2004, due to the negative perception of its "linkage" from the Pasminco saga.
> 
> IPO was $1.85. The banks that had lent to Pasminco had to swap debt for equity as part of the restructuring process. Upon listing, ZFX was sold down to $1.49 in May 2004 as some of the banks decided to have closure and close their files on a negative chapter.
> 
> ...




cheers
TJ


----------



## RichKid (17 March 2005)

*Re: ZINIFEX..ZFX*



			
				TjamesX said:
			
		

> From a poster on another forum I read (and I take a lot of notice of) - credit to "Full Time Investor"
> cheers
> TJ




TJX,
Now that was a good quality post TJ and puts things clearly in perspective imo, clearly we have to verify the figures and contentions but it is logical and easy to follow, no claims out of the blue. It's a shame we can't have more of those types of critical and constructive posts. Thanks again TJ.


----------



## chicken (17 March 2005)

*Re: ZINIFEX..ZFX*

Thats the message I have been trying to tell everyone good post..see www.kitcometals.com   there you can get the graph on all metals...check it out..stockpile went down by 3500 tonnes....


----------



## tech/a (17 March 2005)

*Re: ZINIFEX..ZFX*

Perspective.

(1) ZFX isnt the sole supplier/miner of Zinc.

(2) Investors in ZFX will determine the traded value of the stock.

Trade it as it pans out---currently your riding a good trend.
Seems to be weakening or topping in my view but your trading isnt my call.

Every piece of analysis is of value but in the end price determines profit or loss,no amount of what could/should or would happen will make a scrap of difference.


----------



## RichKid (17 March 2005)

*Re: ZINIFEX..ZFX*



			
				tech/a said:
			
		

> Perspective.
> 
> (1) ZFX isnt the sole supplier/miner of Zinc.
> 
> ...




Very good points Tech, we can't control the market, if it decided to dump ZFX, it'll do it, if it decides to let it run further it will and if it decided there are better value/higher leveraged zinc stocks elsewhere it'll switch, we can only use the charts for guidance- that is if you use T/A to trade but even the fundamentals may say the same, just have to see how this pans out, sometimes intermediate tops are broken savagely as the market clambers for more, no sign of that yet. If this is just profit taking then the exploration upside may keep this stock going.


----------



## chicken (17 March 2005)

*Re: ZINIFEX..ZFX*

Intresting buying this morning  look at the orders..something could be up...annyone


----------



## chicken (17 March 2005)

*Re: ZINIFEX..ZFX*

You said ZINIFEX is not the only one this maybe so...but the spot price is what they receive,,,the next quater..Jan 05 to end of march should be the highest return this company had...as ZINC..selling now at $1798 A $$ a  tonne...plus silver is rising lead also had a good run...and their exploration potential is also there...what the share price will be I do not know but the person who posted his remarks said their PE..are low..do I need to go on..metal prices are got at www.kitcometals.com  you see it all there..I dont need to ramp..but a takeover is also in the cards...because we are UNDERVALUED by the market..and someone will try sooner than later


----------



## TjamesX (17 March 2005)

*Re: ZINIFEX..ZFX*

For me, the big one is that ZFX is unhedged to zinc prices - its value should be very sensitive to changes in zinc prices, I don't believe many resource co's do this.... therefore upside large is for price rises (and equally for downward prices)

I will continue to hold ZFX until fundamentals change


----------



## tech/a (17 March 2005)

*Re: ZINIFEX..ZFX*

Chicken 

You have good arguement fundamentally.

UNDERVALUED is a perception and one which some "experts" agree on.

ZFX is trading AT VALUE if $4 was its real value thats what it would be trading at NOW.

Anyway not having a go at you I love your enthusiasm (I dont see your postings as ramping).

Your opinion is as valid as mine albeit that at times we are apart.


----------



## chicken (17 March 2005)

*Re: ZINIFEX..ZFX*

Well,well....BARCLAYS just became a substancial shareholder with 25.4 million shares...now they must know a good thing...that means...there are only 50million shares to us..the other 450million are held by 21 shareholders...does that not mean something...and there next report will be a boomer as the ZINC price Silver as well as lead have never been better...so because they are unhedged...its going to be better than the last one...and wait there exploration has not been taken in account....so BARCLAYS who have the best researchers must see value here...


----------



## suzanne (17 March 2005)

*Re: ZINIFEX..ZFX*

Hello Chicken,

Your enthusiasm for this share has convinced me to buy in so lets see what happens.

Cheers 

Suzanne


----------



## chicken (17 March 2005)

*Re: ZINIFEX..ZFX*

Suzanne..go to webside...www.kitcometals.com   there you find an intresting side on prices of metals and they are up todate...also www.zinifex.com.au   also the side where you can read all what I said...also I feel with Barclays in this stock there will be more confidence..as the company is trying to get away from what happened with PASMINCO..their problem was they owed 2.5 billion whereby ZFX...owes the banks silch...anotherwords they are undergeared...so no intrestpayments..and what they sell the profits go to the company....do make your own research....its important you know where your money goes...as we can all be wrong but I feel this group has big potential..most importantly unhedged,and NO DEBTS...and BARCLAYS ON BOARD...THEY have good researchers..and they would not have invested if they thought its just a speckie...


----------



## suzanne (17 March 2005)

*Re: ZINIFEX..ZFX*

Thanks chicken. I will check out those sites.

Cheers 
Suzanne


----------



## chicken (17 March 2005)

*Re: ZINIFEX..ZFX*

Suzanne..go to www.yahoo.com   go to the finicial page get ZFX...and read what Reuters have to say..all heavy stuff...but all positive...I dont want to ramp just point you in the right direction,,hope it will help


----------



## chicken (18 March 2005)

*Re: ZINIFEX..ZFX*

Looks like having BARCLAYS on board helps to stabalize the slide..here are some figures of intrest..now with Barclays share the amount available has shrunk to 50 million shares now 90% is owned by 21 shareholders..so 450million shares are not for sale at present prices..and if Barclays are adding to their holdings..well there will not be to much for sale...so this scrip is tightly held make your research but these are the figures I came up with..just imagin if Barclays buys another 25 million shares..then only 25 million are for us..so I am going to hold as I can see a much better price..in the offering..make your own research...


----------



## Warren Buffet II (18 March 2005)

*Re: ZINIFEX..ZFX*



			
				chicken said:
			
		

> now 90% is owned by 21 shareholders..so 450million shares are not for sale at present prices.




Heavy selling today, there is something cooking there. ZFX is going to buy-back $70 mil, let say for $3.10 /share = 22.6 mil shares. I am pretty sure some of the owners you mentioned are selling right now or are going to sell in the next month.

No ZINC price, no company fundamentals changes are driving this share price. Just my point of view.


----------



## Warren Buffet II (18 March 2005)

*Re: ZINIFEX..ZFX*

Production Interruption at Century Mine

That is the problem affecting this company right now. They expect between 11 and 18 days interruption and they do not know the financial impact of this yet (Expected to be available next week).

So, I guess ZFX will break down the $3 mark next week.


----------



## chicken (18 March 2005)

*Re: ZINIFEX..ZFX*

In fact if you do your mathematic it will not affect the bottom line because they are getting $200 more a tonne than what they thought original..do your sums because I have the feeling you like to pay silch for the shares mark my word it will not happen...as far as falling below $3..well the traders got us there but there are more buyers than sellers...my target is still $4..and I see there are hardly any shorts on this stock..meaning they got their delivery..I feel it was overdone but the brokers had a field day...I am not selling because it will go back the direction we just came from..hickups happen...but it has not altered my position in this company...


----------



## chicken (19 March 2005)

*Re: ZINIFEX..ZFX*

Remember...this company is the 2nd largest producer of ZINC...and has no debts...Brokers are having a ball...check the shorts only 300k left from 2millon they are working it down so they can buy back in...the company is sound...and I remember when NEWCREST was down to $1.75...have a look at the price now..same as woodside down to 0.75....yeah our share price will  go up again...it could even be outside forces working against the company..as these falls and rises are not normal..its been happening to often..its not normal what is your thoughts  please post


----------



## chicken (19 March 2005)

*Re: ZINIFEX..ZFX*

check www.kitcometals.com   ZINC is UP in price..and stocks have fallen by another 9oo tonnes..as I said before ZINC is in SHORTSUPPLY


----------



## Fleeta (24 March 2005)

*Re: ZINIFEX..ZFX*

Where have you gone now chicken? ZFX has fallen over 10% in the past few weeks...although todays announcement was positive. Is now a good time to get in at 3.07? Any opinions on this stock?


----------



## chicken (24 March 2005)

*Re: ZINIFEX..ZFX*

I have been away for a holiday..at $3.07..must be good to buy as I said before..stocks of ZINC are falling..ZFX..are getting $200 more for ZINC than budget for..even though there has been a small hickup share will go higher after easter..earnings will suprise....check www.kitcometals.com  zinc came back a fraction...but still well above the price the company said it would average for sale of metal..this hickup should hardly show in the books..I am in and staying there  ...I feel after looking at the graph of falling metal stock price will keep up or go higher...


----------



## The Barbarian Investor (24 March 2005)

*Re: ZINIFEX..ZFX*

Maybe Fleeta is chicken trying to pass himself off as someone else..kinda like.."I'm a schitzophrenic and so am I?"

How many clones are out there on the forum hmmm  

Ha Ha


----------



## chicken (24 March 2005)

*Re: ZINIFEX..ZFX*

Check www.kitcometals.com   if we stay around these shareprice sooner than later as MACQURIE said we would become a takeover target...no debt...good mine life of up to 15 years...good cashflow..shortage of ZINC...good orders....and money in the bank...makes one wonder but I would not at all supprised...we will know soon


----------



## tech/a (28 March 2005)

*Re: ZINIFEX..ZFX*

-------


----------



## malachii (28 March 2005)

*Re: ZINIFEX..ZFX*

It's good when someone else comes to a similar conclusion.  I was starting to wonder if I'd drawn my lines right last night but I came to the same end result as you Tech.

Malachii


----------



## tech/a (28 March 2005)

*Re: ZINIFEX..ZFX*

Ah good now I wont feel so lonely when I get it wrong!


----------



## The Barbarian Investor (29 March 2005)

*Re: ZINIFEX..ZFX*

Pretty much where i have my stop loss set for this share...be interesting to see its progress this week as the markets get going again..


----------



## chicken (29 March 2005)

*Re: ZINIFEX..ZFX*

Mine back in full production since yesterday...see tradingroom....I said it was a small hickup...now April..we get figures for 3rd quater should be still good as their receipts for zinc sold was higher than budgeted for..should still achieve their forecast..


----------



## Warren Buffet II (29 March 2005)

*Re: ZINIFEX..ZFX*

afr.com had an article a week ago saying that this problem is going to impact profit by 12%. I am wondering why ZFX has not posted the financial impact of this hiccup?


----------



## chicken (29 March 2005)

*Re: ZINIFEX..ZFX*

Warren tell me have you thought about what you just posted...I worked out its about $4 million it will cost them in profits..you say 25 million..well on your figures they would loss 2.2 million a day now multiply thaT by 365 days..then you can see they dont make 803 million in profit..so go back and do your no..because you are up the shute with them...and who was this clever advisor..think before you post crap..post facts..I say $4 millons..and you say $25 millions..production figures would also be not right..so do us a favour and post real facts you dont know them and I only work on what I know..and I would be closer to the fact then you  would you like a bet on that


----------



## Warren Buffet II (29 March 2005)

*Re: ZINIFEX..ZFX*

The 12% impact on profits is a comment from The Financial Review publication.

I think the impact is going to be between 15 and 16 millions. Report will tell...


----------



## chicken (29 March 2005)

*Re: ZINIFEX..ZFX*

As I said before your figures dont compute ,as when your average profit per day is around 350k....how can you come up with these redicoulous figures..as I said you would not like to ,because. what you posted does not compute...think...you might get a supprise...I say ,their loss is around $4 million..because you work it out ,use your calculator...because thats the only way you would get your figures...because ,the company will advise so you assume, well we will see what comes out but your no...dont compute... post facts not fiction...and the finacial times has been wrong many a times...


----------



## Smurf1976 (29 March 2005)

*Re: ZINIFEX..ZFX*

Mining operations in general have lots of fixed costs which are not avoided if production is halted for any reason. Even energy is commonly subject to a take-or-pay contract.

Losses resulting from a production halt are thus reasonably close to otherwise expected REVENUE rather than profits. 

For example, company xyz earns $100 million p.a. with costs of $85 million p.a. to give a profit of $15 million. A 3 month production halt reduces annual revenue by 25% to $75 million but costs during that period might only fall, say, 20% (5% over the year) giving annual costs of about $81 million and a loss of $6 million for the year.

I don't know what the figures are for Zinifex but if you are going to lose, say, 5% of annual production from Century then that is a 5% REVENUE loss from that part of their operations with a relatively much smaller cost saving.


----------



## chicken (29 March 2005)

*Re: ZINIFEX..ZFX*

They just stoped the milling...not the works..the material was stockpiled to go throuhg the mill...it was just one tiny part of their operation...also they budgeted for sales at A $1400 per tonne...but they received between..$1800...to $1695 per tonne....well above their forecast..Warren you never took this in consideration..as I said its not going to maKE a hugh difference in their profits..


----------



## malachii (29 March 2005)

*Re: ZINIFEX..ZFX*

Well - $3.06 was my alert and if it closed below $3.00 I was closing out.  Unfortunately it closed at $3.00 which means what ever I do I'm going to probably regret it (LOL).  Ah well - I'll be watching tommorrow very carefully!

Malachii


----------



## Warren Buffet II (29 March 2005)

*Re: ZINIFEX..ZFX*



			
				chicken said:
			
		

> They just stoped the milling...not the works..the material was stockpiled to go throuhg the mill...it was just one tiny part of their operation...also they budgeted for sales at A $1400 per tonne...but they received between..$1800...to $1695 per tonne....well above their forecast..Warren you never took this in consideration..as I said its not going to maKE a hugh difference in their profits..




Well, I do not see where your numbers are coming form either. I'll give you some of my points, I'll give you the reference so you don't say I am making it up:

- Zinifex costs were 3% higher than forecast in first half year due to higher oil and other commodity prices affecting inputs. (Oil still going up) (Zinifex website, half year results)

- FY05 Second Half Forecast Assumptions (A$/t) Zinc 1,570 Lead 1150. (It is not $1400 per tonne, please recheck your numbers) (Zinifex website, half year results)



			
				chicken said:
			
		

> They just stoped the milling...not the works..the material was stockpiled to go throuhg the mill...it was just one tiny part of their operation...




- I do not think it is a tiny part, this is how the mine work

"Ore is fed from a stockpile to the grinding circuit by conveyor, where it is ground by a SAG mill and a ball mill operating in series. Ore then passes to the flotation circuit where lead and zinc concentrates are produced."

That basically means that no zinc was produced in the last 11.5 days.

- So, some numbers:

This mine produces 500000 tonnes/year
Stopped 11.5 = 500000/365 * 11.5 = 15700 tonnes that they stopped producing.

15700 * 1570 (forecast assumption) = 24.6 millons

I would like to see where your numbers are coming from.

Regards,

WBII


----------



## RichKid (29 March 2005)

*Re: ZINIFEX..ZFX*



			
				Warren Buffet II said:
			
		

> Well, I do not see where your numbers are coming form either. I'll give you some of my points, I'll give you the reference so you don't say I am making it up:......................
> ..................
> ........
> I would like to see where your numbers are coming from.
> ...




Good to see some figures and sources WBII, nice explanation by Smurf in the earlier post too, I doubt the figures will stop Chicken's 'enthusiasm', it's just misleadnig imo when a thread gets bumped up everyday as if it was skyrocketing. Just my opinion, it'll be good for the reputation of ASF to maintain high quality posts.


----------



## chicken (30 March 2005)

*Re: ZINIFEX..ZFX*

From the 1st April...Zinifex will be buying 70million dollars worth of their own shares back....  www.kitcometals.com   see Zinc prices up


----------



## The Barbarian Investor (30 March 2005)

*Re: ZINIFEX..ZFX*

I believe ZFX mill is back on line..i'm out though as stop loss was fired at around $3.00


----------



## chicken (31 March 2005)

*Re: ZINIFEX..ZFX*

City investment just big recomendation on Zinifex...makes you wonder why people are short selling..ah well good buying oportunity...


----------



## chicken (31 March 2005)

*Re: ZINIFEX..ZFX*

ZFX will be up again soon after all those suckers sold out....Copper,Aluminium,Zinc prices forecast by CITIGROUP..MARCH(BLOOMBERG)  Zinifex LTD the world 2nd biggest ZINC miner may be earning $210 million after tax 10% higher than previous forecast CITIGROUP said.   ZINC prices in the first half may be 9% higher than prvious forecast at 60cents a pound and nickel may be 8% higher at $6.75 a pound the report said


----------



## chicken (31 March 2005)

*Re: ZINIFEX..ZFX*

read previous post...date should read by CITIGROUP-MARCH 30th(bloomberg)


----------



## tech/a (31 March 2005)

*Re: ZINIFEX..ZFX*

My exit at $2.80 a few months ago doesnt seem that bad now.


----------



## chicken (31 March 2005)

*Re: ZINIFEX..ZFX*

the way chicken sees it....suckers sold to brokers..after all $30 million is not chickenfeed...brokers shorted the stock..to get in...Zinifex starts buying $70 millon of its own stock broker sells at a higher price to Zinifex...broker made good profit..broker happy..sucker unhappy..Zinifex will rise in price..end of story


----------



## chicken (31 March 2005)

*Re: ZINIFEX..ZFX*

Tech/a thanks for the chart.....shortselling will cease today as Zinifex will start buying shares as from the 1st April...brokers will make the $$$$...brokers will be very happy...one share offered for sale at $2.69...one only...brokers playing again


----------



## chicken (31 March 2005)

*Re: ZINIFEX..ZFX*

Well,...I told you so...brokers laughing all the way to the bank...wait tomorrow Zinifex starts buying...$3.20 easly got by brokers..work it out on 20million shares if they make 30c..to 40 cents...great profit for them....


----------



## tech/a (31 March 2005)

*Re: ZINIFEX..ZFX*

You sure your a chicken??


----------



## chicken (31 March 2005)

*Re: ZINIFEX..ZFX*

I am...LOLOLOLOLOLOLOLOLOLOLOLOL......Tech/a I am a chicken........LOLOLOL


----------



## chicken (31 March 2005)

*Re: ZINIFEX..ZFX*

Only up 18cents....Zinifex  will start buying tomorrow...1.2 million shares wanted...its going to get intresting tomorrow...1stApril....read my previous posts to understand what is happening....


----------



## chicken (1 April 2005)

*Re: ZINIFEX..ZFX*

This is intresting..Zinc stocks have fallen by 200000 tonnes in the last 6 months and are continnuing to fall...well what have I said...ZINC is in short supply usage outsrips the minig and as long as CHINA uses this hugh stockpile its getting smaller...Zinc will be steady to up in price another posted said he bought more of ZFX as by the middle to end of year more people wanting these shares...and said also $4+++ will be the share price...brokers are having a ball and making a killing with stocks they got from..other people..I nearly sold out to but decided NO..so I am happy that I kept my shares..my target is again $4....LOLOLOLOLOLOLOLOLO


----------



## chicken (1 April 2005)

*Re: ZINIFEX..ZFX*

Well how do you like that.....there now is buying recomendation from UBS...recomendation and target price $3.72...valuation $3.10....from NEUTRAL...to BUY...I told you the brokers were having us on...must have been right all along pity the ones who sold...looks like an easy ride now...read it on air dated the 1stApril....so what do you know


----------



## Warren Buffet II (1 April 2005)

*Re: ZINIFEX..ZFX*



			
				Warren Buffet II said:
			
		

> Well, I do not see where your numbers are coming form either. I'll give you some of my points, I'll give you the reference so you don't say I am making it up:
> 
> - Zinifex costs were 3% higher than forecast in first half year due to higher oil and other commodity prices affecting inputs. (Oil still going up) (Zinifex website, half year results)
> 
> ...




well, as I predicted:

-Impact 14Millions (I posted 15 ot 16 mill)

- Lost production 17.700 tonnes

It is a shame that chicken did not post his 4 millions numbers 

I would like to see more objective posts and not only speculation.

Regards,

WBII


----------



## chicken (2 April 2005)

*Re: ZINIFEX..ZFX*

NOW, who cares...the shareprice is going in the right direction...UBD..value the stock at $3.10...and have a target price of $3.73...and who are you to argue with them..ZILCH...because they say and advise..I was right the shareprice was manipulated down by the brokers...suddenly...recomendation by UBD...from NEUTRAL...to buy...to argue with you over nothing..well everyone is buying..not shorting..go and short it you loose your money..see it go to $3.73...and I was told they are looking at a shareprice of $4++++...so you can post as much as you like because I thought there was something odd about the situation...now see it go past $4..in the next 6 months..ZINC stockpile is reducing drastically....so..who will laugh last me..because their forecast is on the low side...its not what I say...but the advisers...you are just negative..do you ever make a $..with you attitude also when you read their article they say  the loss was OVERDONE...the company has NO debt..making good $$$ and you are telling us the opposite..get of the grass..in fact watch people getting into this stock...they be climing over each other soon...watch and see


----------



## malachii (2 April 2005)

*Re: ZINIFEX..ZFX*



			
				chicken said:
			
		

> As I said before your figures dont compute ,as when your average profit per day is around 350k....how can you come up with these redicoulous figures..as I said you would not like to ,because. what you posted does not compute...think...you might get a supprise...I say ,their loss is around $4 million..because you work it out ,use your calculator...because thats the only way you would get your figures...because ,the company will advise so you assume, well we will see what comes out but your no...dont compute... post facts not fiction...and the finacial times has been wrong many a times...





I think you could at least apologize Chicken - your pretty critical of anyone who offers a difference of opinion and demand they post fact not fiction and then when they back themselves up you write them off.  

Malachii


----------



## DTM (2 April 2005)

*Re: ZINIFEX..ZFX*

Speaking to my brother in law who is a trader ie chemicals, he said that his Chinese contacts came into town, and bought a tonne of  zinc off Pasimenco to the value of 6 months production.

Thought people might like to know.


----------



## Warren Buffet II (2 April 2005)

*Re: ZINIFEX..ZFX*



			
				chicken said:
			
		

> NOW, who cares...the shareprice is going in the right direction...UBD..value the stock at $3.10...and have a target price of $3.73...and who are you to argue with them..ZILCH...because they say and advise..I was right the shareprice was manipulated down by the brokers...suddenly...recomendation by UBD...from NEUTRAL...to buy...to argue with you over nothing..well everyone is buying..not shorting..go and short it you loose your money..see it go to $3.73...and I was told they are looking at a shareprice of $4++++...so you can post as much as you like because I thought there was something odd about the situation...now see it go past $4..in the next 6 months..ZINC stockpile is reducing drastically....so..who will laugh last me..because their forecast is on the low side...its not what I say...but the advisers...you are just negative..do you ever make a $..with you attitude also when you read their article they say  the loss was OVERDONE...the company has NO debt..making good $$$ and you are telling us the opposite..get of the grass..in fact watch people getting into this stock...they be climing over each other soon...watch and see




Well, there 2 ways of making money, one is trying to invent stuff so people get involved in the wrong moment (which you exercise very well: you only post the days this stock is up and when the zinc price up, but then when the stock is down look like you are on holidays  ). I bought ZFX for 2.82 and sold for 3.05 this week, so I am making money without dreaming for $4 like you.

Unfortunaly, I find your information very poor and based on your dreams instead of real facts

Regards,

WBII


----------



## The Barbarian Investor (2 April 2005)

*Re: ZINIFEX..ZFX*

Price is still subdued at the moment.. however looks like it found support at around $2.80.

IMHO i believe it will rise above $3.20 again , how quickly is anyones guess..

PS - had a play with the edit function and have posted ZFx chart..feel free to add comments or your own view..


----------



## chicken (2 April 2005)

*Re: ZINIFEX..ZFX*

Warren..so you sold..so what...UBD..they are advisers..say  VALIUATION..$3.10 TARGET PRICE $3.73..and BUY..so who are you to argue with them..and what you dont seem to understand what they lost or what it cost them will make very little difference in their yearend PROFIT...those $14 million dont come out of profit the profit on that loss is about $4 million..I just cant understand that you want to take the full amount of profit..thats how it does not work speak to an Accountant he will erxplain it to you..they still kept operating if you buy or sell its up to you I am only pointing out where it is heading to..do you understand tha I was told by some one who knows ZINC prices will rise and ZFX has every chance to go over $4...+++


----------



## chicken (2 April 2005)

*Re: ZINIFEX..ZFX*

DTM..good post....the share price speaks...or the market has spoken..UP it goes...If you short it the brokers will burn you ,shorts have disappeared check it out on th ASX side under shortsell...and www.kitcometals.com  tells the story...check it if you are invested in this stock..if you buy or sell its your business..I dont dream I KNOW thats the difference..this is GOOD STOCK....and 21 shareholder hold 425 million  shares..Zinifex are buying 70 million $ worth starting on the 8th April....so we would assume only 50 million shares are left to trade..and those are figures from ZINIFEX...and so we will see where we go from here..ZINC will go Up..thats for certain..CHINA needs it and shares will be in short supply..work it out what will happen..one does not have to be a rocket scintist to know....where the share price will go...


----------



## chicken (2 April 2005)

*Re: ZINIFEX..ZFX*

can anyone post what a cost or expense is ,so Warren Buffett...who does not seem to understand that its a cost not a loss to profits..I think he still does not understand how it works...it all comes under operating cost NOT profit..Profit is the end result...any accountants on this board please post so he will understand the full impact of the situation...I have run businesses so I know he got the wrong end of the stick...annyone


----------



## Warren Buffet II (2 April 2005)

*Re: ZINIFEX..ZFX*



			
				chicken said:
			
		

> can anyone post what a cost or expense is ,so Warren Buffett...who does not seem to understand that its a cost not a loss to profits..I think he still does not understand how it works...it all comes under operating cost NOT profit..Profit is the end result...any accountants on this board please post so he will understand the full impact of the situation...I have run businesses so I know he got the wrong end of the stick...annyone




Chicken, everytime you speak about numbers you get it wrong my friend. if you used to run business like that I can imagine where they are now.
Check the next article from The Sydney Morning Herald:

"A recent shutdown of an ore grinding operation in Queensland will cost lead and zinc miner Zinifex Ltd *$14 million in pre tax profit*"

http://smh.com.au/articles/2005/04/01/1112302216247.html

I am getting a bit tired of discussing no sense with you and this is making this thread really boring when all you do is talking about your brokers, zinc price and speculation without any facts.

WBII


----------



## chicken (2 April 2005)

*Re: ZINIFEX..ZFX*

I still say that you like just to be short but the trend is NOW going against you ..read the article in the Courier Mail..Tax brake for people who lost in Pasminco..ZINIFEX..is going from strength to strength it says and UBS given guide of the share price so you DONT know read it and get educated...ZFX..is rising...ZINC price IS RISING..so you are telling us they are short as I said before get of the grass...UBS..values the share at $3.10....and their target is $3.73...so where is your problem...the under $3..well that will take time but its UP the trend....and going against the trend does NOT work..how many millions did it take to short this stock..I am sure you are not in this leauge to short it...because $30 million is not chicken feed. and I doubt even you took a name from a very wealthy person..you are NOT in the hunt...


----------



## el_ninj0 (2 April 2005)

*Re: ZINIFEX..ZFX*



			
				chicken said:
			
		

> I still say that you like just to be short but the trend is NOW going against you ..read the article in the Courier Mail..Tax brake for people who lost in Pasminco..ZINIFEX..is going from strength to strength it says and UBS given guide of the share price so you DONT know read it and get educated...ZFX..is rising...ZINC price IS RISING..so you are telling us they are short as I said before get of the grass...UBS..values the share at $3.10....and their target is $3.73...so where is your problem...the under $3..well that will take time but its UP the trend....and going against the trend does NOT work..how many millions did it take to short this stock..I am sure you are not in this leauge to short it...because $30 million is not chicken feed. and I doubt even you took a name from a very wealthy person..you are NOT in the hunt...




You got some links for those valuations by ubs and others chicken?


----------



## Smurf1976 (2 April 2005)

*Re: ZINIFEX..ZFX*



			
				chicken said:
			
		

> I still say that you like just to be short but the trend is NOW going against you ..read the article in the Courier Mail..Tax brake for people who lost in Pasminco..ZINIFEX..is going from strength to strength it says and UBS given guide of the share price so you DONT know read it and get educated...ZFX..is rising...ZINC price IS RISING..so you are telling us they are short as I said before get of the grass...UBS..values the share at $3.10....and their target is $3.73...so where is your problem...the under $3..well that will take time but its UP the trend....and going against the trend does NOT work..how many millions did it take to short this stock..I am sure you are not in this leauge to short it...because $30 million is not chicken feed. and I doubt even you took a name from a very wealthy person..you are NOT in the hunt...



Tax break for those who lost in Pasminco?


----------



## chicken (3 April 2005)

*Re: ZINIFEX..ZFX*

THAT IS CORECT...TAX breaks for 60000 shareholders who lost money in shares who had them in PASMINCO...THE COURIER MAil>>>ARTICLE RE THIS MATTER....GO on line and read it for yourself


----------



## chicken (3 April 2005)

*Re: ZINIFEX..ZFX*

EL NINJO...THE COURIER MAIL....read the article UBS advises $3.10 valuation...target price $3.73.....now a BUY  from NEUTRAL...not what I say but the finincial ADVISERS...now go to the courier mails webside and see the article..also TAX BREAK for 60000 shareholders in PASMINCO....


----------



## chicken (3 April 2005)

*Re: ZINIFEX..ZFX*

Warren..ZFX turns over $1.2 billion in  sales of minerals..they lost $14 million which is production..now they make say 20 % profit now do you get the drift how it works..what you are saying is crap..not $14 millions of total profits but it first comes out of total sales..profit is calculated AT THE END...I know you have not a clue how it works..if you have an expense..which this was..the profit on the 14 million they did not earn or lost is not profit but turnover..man you know little..if I was in business with you I run a mile...thats why I said the impact would be $4..million....perhaps not even that...all the other smelters are working and there was NO time lost there...


----------



## dutchie (3 April 2005)

*Re: ZINIFEX..ZFX*

Chicken

Your enthusiasm for ZFX is very obvious.

However it should not get in they way of ridiculing people who may have a different point of view to your own.

Firstly in regard to the $14m - this was reported by the Company to the ASX (on the 31 March) as a $14m decrease in EBIT (which is what WarrenBuffet alluded to) - so without knowing the interest or tax component the real profit loss is unknown but I think your estimate of $4m. is incorrect too. 
Irrespective of what the real figure is the idea of this forum is that if posts make statements in regard to profits, price estimations etc. they should be backed up by facts (or references) or if they are just opinions then that should be stated in the post.
It is great that you are trying to convince others that ZFX (and BPC) are great co.'s and that we can profit from them. However if you make posts try and back up your opinions and don't ridicule other posters who may disagree with you. We are all here to share information and learn from each other.
If we all practice constructive criticism then we will all benefit from different points of view.
If a poster ridicules everyone that disagrees with their opinion they will soon be posting to themselves!
I urge all forumites to continually focus on the subject at hand and NOT the poster!
Chicken please continue to make posts to this forum as I think you have something to contribute.
Irrespective of the future of ZFX (I am also bullish in the long term) continue your enthusiasm but think about what you post and how it is worded and please dont ridicule other posters, but argue/discuss/debate the subject.
I hope you make lots of profit (after tax and interest) with ZFX!


----------



## RichKid (3 April 2005)

*Re: ZINIFEX..ZFX*



			
				dutchie said:
			
		

> Chicken
> 
> Your enthusiasm for ZFX is very obvious.
> 
> ...




Agree with you wholeheartedly Dutchie and WBII, and I don't think it's fair of Chicken to say that people who aren't as bullish on ZFX as he is are 'shorting' the stock (ie an implication of vested interests)- where's the proof? Might be good to see the ramping thread Chicken, you tend to post to yourself and repeat material ad nauseum. If you were new to stocks it would be a different story but you are an old hand as you mentioned in your early posts on this forum, you know exactly what you are doing- ramping. It's the innocent & inexperienced that'll get emotionally trapped by your posts. I'm only asking that you show some limit to your 'enthusiasm' and more respect for conflicting views. That's just my opinion, you are welcome to disagree: https://www.aussiestockforums.com/forums/showthread.php?t=1145


----------



## reichstag911 (4 April 2005)

*Re: ZINIFEX..ZFX*

Based on T.A. only and not funnymentals:

It is a short - and not long...


Cheers.


----------



## chicken (4 April 2005)

*Re: ZINIFEX..ZFX*

Dutchie thank you for this post..I just got mad with people who say it was PROFIT..which it WAS NOT..UBS advisers stated the whole thing was over done..NOW I wonder who that rocket scintist was..but now I am happy to see that people understand that it was an EXPENSE..the cost to profit is a completly different situation..also I said the COURIER MAIL featured an article saying anyone who lost money in PASMINCO will get a TAX break..I was NOT invested in PASMINCO...too much debt...NOW UBS also featured in this article..valueing ZFX...$3.10...their price target is $3.73.....and now its a BUY...from NEUTRAL...now thats was posted in the courier MAIL...as far as BPC...burns philp....look, what they sell and who they are...forcast profit for the year 410Million $$$...should be debt FREE within 10 months..now I am NOT a rocket scintist...just a person who reads and watches...that PANELBEATER is now highly regarded..I know a lot of people  here in Aussie and also in NEWZEALAND...And everyone...seem to like BPC..Australians largest food manufacturer...turnover $3.6 BILLION..wish I had bought at 3c..6 years ago..now brokers valueing the stock at $1.15.......I hold 100k of these..so you see I like it the otherone I posted was MAP...now on its way UP....so you see when I started posting ZFX was $2.36....and now over $3..


----------



## The Barbarian Investor (4 April 2005)

*Re: ZINIFEX..ZFX*

I believe that ZFX has merit and 'will rise' over the ensuing weeks as i've said before. How fast is anyones guess..

The recent drop would've been a good time to buy in. sad to say, the recent drop saw me exit the stock via my stop loss.

it's still a stock i'd be still happy to have in my portfolio though

Chicken, your love for this stock knows no bounds and time will tell the outcome, the thread has generated healthy debate to say the least and i for one have enjoyed reading the views of others.


----------



## chicken (4 April 2005)

*Re: ZINIFEX..ZFX*

Yes of course...we all have different opinions..but Accounts are ALL the same..that is one understands them ,I do..but anyway.thanks for your post and will keep posting if I think its worth while..what do you say about UBS..$3.10 valuation...$3.73 target and now a BUY from Neutral...so what is your comment


----------



## The Barbarian Investor (6 April 2005)

*Re: ZINIFEX..ZFX*

Regarding Zinifex

Zinifex offers leverage to both lead and zinc prices. 

lead prices will be moving north i believe

Look at the PE of ZFX , i believe there is merit in the stock especialy over the long term.


----------



## RichKid (6 April 2005)

*Re: ZINIFEX..ZFX*



			
				The Barbarian Investor said:
			
		

> Regarding Zinifex
> 
> Zinifex offers leverage to both lead and zinc prices.
> 
> ...




Yes, those metals seem destined to go higher but short term there is some resistance. I prefer CBH as a Zinc and Lead play, much more leverage (hence riskier) but unlike ZFX it's not running at full capacity yet. It's my pick for the tipping comp. 

I like ZFX too but it's looking a bit toppish atm I'd say the price of Zinc affects the sp a lot- just my opinion, see the charts. Maybe sideways for awhile like last year? Less likely but a steady stock barring further mishaps.


----------



## chicken (6 April 2005)

*Re: ZINIFEX..ZFX*

UBS..values ZFX..at $3.10.....targetprice $3.73...from NEUTRAL to BUY now


----------



## malachii (6 April 2005)

*Re: ZINIFEX..ZFX*

Chicken - there are only so many times you can write that before it starts to look like blatant ramping!!

Malachii


----------



## chicken (7 April 2005)

*Re: ZINIFEX..ZFX*

I am stating a fact ,if I was ramping...UBS wrote that and posted that and who do you believe RICH KIT who said it was toppy or UBS who are respected advisers...also Barclays have now 36million shares, take that away from...75 million shares and you have 39million shares so that is what is liquid in ZFX shareholding...ZFX is starting to buy on the 8th APRIL 70million$$$$ worth of shares, so they be buying say 20million shares ,so if the 21 shareholders hold on to their shares..you dont have to be a rocket scintist to see what is happening..get your facts OK..I am NOT ramping but pointing out what the facts are..BUY, if you like ,sell ,if you like OK...so the shares available for trading are getting slimer as from FRIDAY the 8th..so just to put the records straight,,,even the shorts have virtually disappeared..you get that information on the ASX board..If I was ramping I would tell you to buy...did I? NO I am just pointing out you got a company with hugh cashflow,Debt free and 92% of shares are held by 21 shareholders..and the 2nd largest ZINC mine with everything pre sold..think about that ..so I was told by someone $4 plus you can expect now tell me something different I like to hear it....I like zfx..because they got a good team..and most important they are making $$$$$$$$$$$$...and no or very little debt show me a company who is so undergeared....and they started exploring again..also could buy some of the smaller groups..I am sure they looking and after all they got the MONEY....to buy..the traders are getting into this stock..larger parcels are getting harder to buy just watch what happends


----------



## RichKid (7 April 2005)

*Re: ZINIFEX..ZFX*



			
				malachii said:
			
		

> Chicken - there are only so many times you can write that before it starts to look like blatant ramping!!
> 
> Malachii




That's not going to stop him Malachii. This Chicken is drunk on ZFX.

Chicken, if you're going to bump this thread all the time at least put something new, why don't you go off and find the full broker report you quote by UBS and post the relevant parts here with a link to the source if possible.
It might soak up a bit of your excess energy. Original material please rather than paraphrasing and repetition. Let's hope it's not old info either.


----------



## chicken (7 April 2005)

*Re: ZINIFEX..ZFX*

Read MY last post..re shareholders of the company..Richkid..the posters KNOW UBS why do they not got and read it themself its ALL there..re valuation..when you sell something below valuation WHO GAINS...buyer...I am NOT selling and so are BARCLAYS,and all the other BIG SHAREHOLDERS..it will see $4 you will see but of course for day traders and TA traders I am BAD MEDICINE because people getting information which you would rather see them not to have yes I like ZFX story and I hope that they will be VERY successful for us shareholders..one of the better mining companies...and yes the shares the public will have acess to will also be a small pool....so thats the true picture..nothing in being drunk with ZFX...its just great to be in a company..no debt,undergeared and making plenty of $$$$$..and 5 own smelters...AND EVERYTHING SOLD FORWARD....not many mining companies with that story..

check...www.kitcometals.com Lead is UP..and Zinc stock has fallen again by over 2000 tons for the day....


----------



## Joe Blow (7 April 2005)

*Re: ZINIFEX..ZFX*



			
				chicken said:
			
		

> I am stating a fact ,if I was ramping




Chicken, it's not WHAT you are saying but how many times you are repeating the same information that is beginning to annoy some people.

Can you please only add new information to this thread, it is getting a bit clogged with the same information being posted again and again.

Also, instead of posting two or three times in a row, can you try to put everything you have to say in the one post.

Thanks.


----------



## Warren Buffet II (7 April 2005)

*Re: ZINIFEX..ZFX*



			
				Joe Blow said:
			
		

> Chicken, it's not WHAT you are saying but how many times you are repeating the same information that is beginning to annoy some people.
> 
> Can you please only add new information to this thread, it is getting a bit clogged with the same information being posted again and again.
> 
> ...




Joe,

Annoy is just a bit, it is getting really boring to check this thread because as you said you find the same comment from Chicken over and over and over again. Sometimes I think he posts 3 or 4 times in a row to put good comments away and keep all his useless posts in front.

For those interested in the brokers valuation, here is a list of the latest valuations (if you want the specific comments just let me know):

Regards

WBII


----------



## dutchie (7 April 2005)

*Re: ZINIFEX..ZFX*

WB2

That puts a lot of Chickens statements into context.

There is a large variation in values and it would be interesting to know what they base their valuations on and why they are so different.

Is all that information available at a particular site?


----------



## Warren Buffet II (7 April 2005)

*Re: ZINIFEX..ZFX*

Recommendation Overview 

GS JB Were  04-Apr-05  1  Outperform, L/T Buy  -  -  
The broker notes management’s assessment the lost production from technical problems at the Century mine would impact earnings by $14m compares favourably to the broker’s conservative estimate of a $24m impact. As a result, the broker has increased its EPS forecasts in FY05 by 5.4% to 37.2c and in FY06 by 0.2% to 43.2c. Valuation has also increased to $3.02 from $3.00. 

UBS  01-Apr-05  1  Upgrade to Buy 2 from Neutral 2  $3.72  22.0%  
Target $3.72. The broker suggests the recent share price weakness has been a combination of profit taking and concerns over operational problems at the Century mine. In the broker’s view the price decline has been overdone as the Century impact is likely to be lower than expected, commodity prices suggest guidance is conservative and the buyback can commence on April 8. The broker’s valuation is $3.10. 

Macquarie  21-Mar-05  3  Neutral  $3.00  -1.6%  
Target $3.00. An electrical problem has interrupted production at the Century mine, with the company estimating 20% of quarterly production or 5% of annual production may be lost. As a result the broker has cut its 2005 earnings by 8% or $20m to $237.2m but notes valuation is only reduced by 3c to $2.05, so overall the impact is minor. 

CSFB  21-Mar-05  5  Underperform  $2.89  -5.2%  
Milling operations at Century mine have ceased due to electrical failure resulting in outage of 11-18 days. The share price is, however, driven by the global shortage in zinc concentrates, the broker says. 

Deutsche Bank  21-Mar-05  1  Buy  $4.00  31.1%  
The broker considers any pullback in the share price to be a buying opportunity given the zinc market is strengthening. Target down 2.9% due to problems at Century. 

Aspect Huntley  22-Feb-05  3  Hold  -  -  
Normalised NPAT came in slightly below analyst's expectation, with cost pressures starting to impact. Despite this, the analysts upgrades FY05 headline NPAT estimate from $145.2m to $193.0m as a result of increased short term price assumptions and lower than expected depreciation and amortisation charges. Similarly, FY06 NPAT is upgraded from $142.9 to $231.5. After normalising for the anticipated tax benefit, FY05 NPAT has been cut to $131.1m. ZFX is highly leveraged to zinc prices. If Aspect Huntley increases its long term zinc assumption from US$0.55/lb to US$0.60/lb, its ZFX valuation rises from $2.65 to $3.92. Zinc prices are on the improve, driven by China. Stockpiles are sizeable but falling. The bulk of profits are being generated from Century and Rosebery. Mine life is an issue at both operations, the report reminds us. 

SB Citigroup  21-Feb-05  1  Buy, High Risk  $3.30  8.2%  
Earnings surprise was tax driven, the analysts say. Zinc is one of Citigroup’s preferred metals and with the price pushing new highs, the analyst maintain their Buy recommendation and target of $3.30.  

Merrill Lynch  21-Feb-05  3  Neutral, High Risk  -  -  
Result higher than guidance due to write backs from tax expenses, the analysts say. Lower depreciation at Century and lower zinc TCRCs see FY05 EPS forecasts rise by 0.11 to 0.36, FY06 by 0.07 to 0.32 and FY07 by 0.09 to 0.22.


----------



## chicken (7 April 2005)

*Re: ZINIFEX..ZFX*

Thanks Warren..we are on the right track after all.......


----------



## Warren Buffet II (7 April 2005)

*Re: ZINIFEX..ZFX*



			
				chicken said:
			
		

> Thanks Warren..we are on the right track after all.......




I bought ZFX again this week, I can see some extra potencial now that the problem with the mill has passed. Look chicken I am not against you but I like to talk with facts and correct numbers, that is what I always try to do. I like posts with new information, brokers valuations etc.

Time will tell.

WBII


----------



## chicken (12 April 2005)

*Re: ZINIFEX..ZFX*

Check...www.kitcometals.com   ZINC rising in price...check a little stock CBH makes intresting reading..also into ZINC....ZFX..can anyone tell me if they started their buyback...been away so just wondering.....


----------



## Porper (12 April 2005)

*Re: ZINIFEX..ZFX*



			
				chicken said:
			
		

> Check...www.kitcometals.com   ZINC rising in price...check a little stock CBH makes intresting reading..also into ZINC....ZFX..can anyone tell me if they started their buyback...been away so just wondering.....




I can't believe zfx is the share that Chicken is ramping continuously as I have just bought it 
 I didn't realise until I was reading this thread tonight.Not only that, I also bought CBH (see above quote).

I am doomed for sure 

I bought purely because it turned up on my daily scan, the chart looked good for a bit more to me, but only a beginner so time will tell.

So Chicken, keep up the good ramping (only joking).


----------



## Porper (12 April 2005)

*Re: ZINIFEX..ZFX*



			
				chicken said:
			
		

> can anyone tell me if they started their buyback...been away so just wondering.....




Forgot to answer your question Chicken. The buy back was due to start this month, at market, so who knows :dunno:


----------



## chicken (14 April 2005)

*Re: ZINIFEX..ZFX*

Well,its been a few days from my last post...well they started their BUYBACK...but very slow....we will see what happends after all they want to spend $70million and if they buy as little as yesterday it will be heavy going...at present our broker is busy again..stock will rise again..also we should hear soon how the last 3 months went..should be OK as the prices they got was on the high side...stock will rise again on monday we will see the same tomorrow...so good luck to everyone.....chicken


----------



## Porper (14 April 2005)

*Re: ZINIFEX..ZFX*



			
				chicken said:
			
		

> .stock will rise again..also we should hear soon how the last 3 months went..should be OK as the prices they got was on the high side...stock will rise again on monday we will see the same tomorrow...chicken




I have to admit you have been pretty accurate with your predictions so far. I particularly like the "Will" rise parts.I hope you are right Chicken as I own this stock now.

If you are a bit of a dab hand with the old Tea Leaves, can I throw a few stocks your way, and you can tell me which ones will rise .Save me a lot of headache trying to learn charting.


----------



## chicken (15 April 2005)

*Re: ZINIFEX..ZFX*

The reason it will rise a. shortage of Zinc worldwide...estimated by 395000 tonnes...b.425 million shares owned by 20 shareholders c.Zfx buying about 25 million shares of 75 million shares which are freely available. d.see what Warren posted re valuations...d.company now exploring new ventures. e.very high prices received for sales..e...NO DEBT...f. good CASHFLOW..g company open to buy other resource companies....h. 2nd largest producer of Zinc e. large silver producer. j.large lead producer.....annyway make your own research as I had posted most of what I say...I am sure you find what I found out the company is pretty sound..brokers are playing around this dance has been going on for the last 3 months...but will go higher you must have seen value if you bought....


----------



## The Barbarian Investor (15 April 2005)

*Re: ZINIFEX..ZFX*

As you say chicken large lead producer as well..an interesting stock and sure to return to previous highs (when...is the big question though)


----------



## Porper (15 April 2005)

*Re: ZINIFEX..ZFX*



			
				The Barbarian Investor said:
			
		

> As you say chicken large lead producer as well..an interesting stock and sure to return to previous highs (when...is the big question though)




I hope so Barbarian, only had this stock 3 days and I am almost at my stop of 10%.The market sentiment isn't helping but it does seem to hit this type of stock a lot more than others in a falling market.

Still you pay ya money you take your chance.


----------



## chicken (16 April 2005)

*Re: ZINIFEX..ZFX*

One broker really trying to push it down ,why???...the results should be out I hope next week...as SH price below valuation..also noticed on kitcometals ZINC is UP...and stocks holding are falling...will rise higher in price..due to chinas demand.....opportunity to buy into blue chip stock at low price...will jet supprise I am staying in as I can see value..you buy you sell..your choice


----------



## RichKid (16 April 2005)

*Re: ZINIFEX..ZFX*



			
				chicken said:
			
		

> One broker really trying to push it down ,why???




ANY evidence for this? if so POST IT!! This is not a one broker stock, if you think it is prove it. I'm getting sick of you imagining things or making them up- are there commies under your bed too??? or maybe the Martians are behind the fall in ZFX???? Let's just blame the US govt and Area 51- maybe that's where that broker is shorting the stock from.



> ...the results should be out I hope next week...as SH price below valuation..also noticed on kitcometals ZINC is UP...




Zinc is not 'UP', in fact it's been down for awhile after what appeared to be a short term correction but could now turn into a trend reversal or consolidation- but not 'UP' the way you suggest, certainly not yet. The way you suggest it even a tiny move up is supposed to send ZFX much higher. You are misleading people and destroying the quality of posts and the reputation of ASF imho. We will only attract people like you (read selfish rampers) and not well meaning and experienced investors to these forums by encouraging posts like yours. You are really pushing the boundaries without being banned imho, so far that is...



> and stocks holding are falling...will rise higher in price..due to chinas demand.....opportunity to buy into blue chip stock at low price...will jet supprise I am staying in as I can see value..you buy you sell..your choice




How can you say something is certain to rise ('will')?? Do you control the Zince price and ZFX?? Clearly not. Your posts clearly stand out here at ASF, maybe you should go to a forum like hotcopper and stay there. Your post was worth 0c imo.

To those holders of ZFX who think that those ramping a stock on a forum are doing you a favour or are going to make you rich be aware that it is mere psychological DECEPTION. Think car salesman or blackbox spruikers. Chicken is NOT doing you a favour. We are mainly beginners here, he is an old hand, you are being taken advantage of imo. 

This doesn't mean that ZFX will go up or down or sideways- that is for the market to decide- rampers just can make you believe (consciously and subconsciously) that a stock will only go in one diirection. This is not how it works- last week is proof. Don't put yourself in all sorts of emotional and financial trouble by being manipulated like this, I'm sure you have enough to worry about as it is.

I neither hold nor intend to hold ZFX at this point in time (I have never shorted it either so I have nothing to gain if it goes down).


----------



## dutchie (17 April 2005)

*Re: ZINIFEX..ZFX*

I agree with you RK (one of your better posts).

I enjoy and benefit from ASF because it is a quality forum.  

I think it needs the more experienced members to keep the quality up by questioning postings which are misleading/repetitive/ramping etc, as you have done here.


----------



## Porper (17 April 2005)

*Re: ZINIFEX..ZFX*

I think Chicken is pushing the boundaries here as well, maybe Joe is thinking about deleting his/her posts or banning him/her.

As for Richkids point about taking what Chicken says and using that as a possible decision to buy, well you would have to be a dipstick to do that, even the most basic beginner should be able to spot a ramp when they see one, still it shouldn't be allowed and hopefully all ramping will be dealt with by Joe.:behead:


----------



## chicken (17 April 2005)

*Re: ZINIFEX..ZFX*

You are a funny man...look at what you just posted..saying ZINC is not rising your KITCOMETALS graph shows a positive trend or as you say a reversall...well I said it was going up you said its a trendreversal..well it shows clearly its GREEN..so up in my thoughts or trendreversal..read what Macqurie says CHINA will be going and producing higher outputs for till the year 2012..so far as you said my prediction were right..so where is the problem...but I am not hear to have an argument with you but say check www.kitcometals.com  on all your mining stock...on monday we will see another fall but thats not the fundamentals but just due to the fall of the dow...might see another $10 billion wiped from the ASX...ZFX should make about 36cents to 40cents profit..and the forecasts for 2006 even higher...also I said DO YOUR OWN research..and if you want to be criticall why not but post the results on the company and dont attack me...do you get the what I am getting at and being barred because I posted facts ?????


----------



## chicken (17 April 2005)

*Re: ZINIFEX..ZFX*

Re the one broker check your sales on monday..you most probably see someone..broker selling 100000 shares at well below the previous day its not a privat induvidual but a BROKER who has DEEP pockets he takes the price up but also brings the price down..check your SHORTSELLS on the ASX..745000 shares were sold short so that induvidual..will try and pick up the stock CHEAPER on monday see how he manipulates the stock..but I am only telling you that you should know it yourself..if you sell or buy thats your business..I started posting when the stock was $2.36..and everyone who bought made MONEY..I hold stocks in ZFX..because I posted why I like their business principal..little or no DEBT...against the former company which had $3.5 billion debt...mind you this group will most probably being taken over because the big boys are looking for companies such as this one..potential...and great assets...now tell me am I ramping..as I said before I just post facts as I see them..if you know something lets hear it...because I am running out of what to say...


----------



## Joe Blow (18 April 2005)

*Re: ZINIFEX..ZFX*



			
				chicken said:
			
		

> now tell me am I ramping..as I said before I just post facts as I see them..if you know something lets hear it...because I am running out of what to say...




Chicken, nobody objects to hearing the facts.... ONCE. 

What I have a problem with is the facts being repeated again and again just to bump a thread. It does become irrititating and it clogs up the thread with the same information being posted again and again.

I'll ask you once more to only bump a thread when you have some NEW information to add.

RichKid and others have made some good points and I think you should take what they have said on board. We all know you're a supporter of ZFX and that you believe its price will go up. That doesn't mean we want to be reminded of it every day.

Please, from now on only post new information, not the same spiel repackaged on a daily basis.

Thanks.


----------



## chicken (19 April 2005)

*Re: ZINIFEX..ZFX*

ZFX are buying more ,now market will bounce...maybe around these figures for the MAY.June months and then this stock will rise...ZFX picked a good time of buying their own stock as that helps it in underpinning this stock..notices another 1565 tonnes of world stock ZINC gonne...check www.kitcometals.com


----------



## Investor (19 April 2005)

*Re: ZINIFEX..ZFX*



			
				chicken said:
			
		

> Check www.kitcometals.com   if we stay around these shareprice sooner than later as MACQURIE said we would become a takeover target...no debt...good mine life of up to 15 years...good cashflow..shortage of ZINC...good orders....and money in the bank...makes one wonder but I would not at all supprised...we will know soon




I am new to this forum and had a look at this thread because I hold ZFX. Bought 30,000 shares in 2004 at average price of $1.60 as I thought the shares were undervalued at that time.

Chicken has previously stated that he welcomes any factual comments on ZFX. As such, I will oblige.

Chicken has stated, too many times, ZFX has "no debt". Read the financials FYE 30/6/04. As at 30/6/04, ZFX had $169.1 million in bank debt. 

Chicken has stated "good mine life of up to 15 years". ZFX has two mines. Century Mine in Queensland and Rosebery Mine in Tasmania. From what I have read, the former has an expected mine life of 11 years while the latter has an expected mine life of 5 years (but I could be wrong).

The "money in the bank" that Chicken refers to will largely be spent on the $70 million on-market share buy back (bear in mind this was in lieu of paying dividends) and exploration expenditure to try to find new ore reserves.

ZFX has stated to the ASX (public announcement) that the maximum price it will buy shares in the buy back is $3.2718.

I will continue to hold ZFX, unless I expect a sizeable fall in the share price at some point, as I am a long term investor and not a trader. However, I am aware that investment in mining shares carry a much higher level of risk of capital loss than say, Woolworths or AGL; and I would not do what Chicken has done to continuously post ZFX. 

Any global economic recession (they do occur once a while) will bring ZFX's share price lower, as will happen to most mining shares and many other shares.


----------



## Warren Buffet II (20 April 2005)

*Re: ZINIFEX..ZFX*



			
				Investor said:
			
		

> ZFX has stated to the ASX (public announcement) that the maximum price it will buy shares in the buy back is $3.2718.




Good post investor, that is the kind of thread we want here, interesting informationa and real facts, that is great.

I just want to point to the public announcement from ZFX about the buyback share price, I am not sure and I am not an expert on this but that price changes everyday (at least everyday they buy new shares), why? I do not know but it goes up and down, they refer to some document rule 7.33 ??

Anyone knows why that price changes?

the highest price allowed today is $3.2193 

Now, about the debt, this is what the financial statement says "At 31 December 2004 the company held cash reserves of $164.4 million. With outstanding borrowings of
$158.5 million at the same date, the company was effectively debt free."


Regards,

WBII


----------



## Investor (20 April 2005)

*Re: ZINIFEX..ZFX*



			
				Warren Buffet II said:
			
		

> I just want to point to the public announcement from ZFX about the buyback share price, I am not sure and I am not an expert on this but that price changes everyday (at least everyday they buy new shares), why? I do not know but it goes up and down, they refer to some document rule 7.33 ??
> 
> Anyone knows why that price changes?
> 
> ...




WBII,

I think rule 7.33 has to do with the Corporations Law that regulates on market share buy backs, to implement some control over share price movements that could occur when a buy back exercise is in play.

In ZFX's case, it stops ZFX from spending $70 milllion all at once, which could lead to an unwarranted price rise. 

The timing of the buy back (announced in Feb. 05 for an April 05 execution) was probably good as the market was undergoing a correction. Good for existing ZFX holders as the company can buy at lower prices caused by the market correction.


----------



## Warren Buffet II (20 April 2005)

*Re: ZINIFEX..ZFX*

I agree, it has been a great time for the buy-back.

Found rule 7.33

"A company may only buy back shares under an on-market buy-back at the price which is not more than 5% above the average of the market price for securities in that class. The average is calculated over the last 5 days on whihc sales in the shares were recorded before the day on which the purchase under the buy-back was made"

http://www.asx.com.au/ListingRules/chapters/Chapter07.pdf

WBII


----------



## chicken (22 April 2005)

*Re: ZINIFEX..ZFX*

Warren, hope you did not go short on those 125000 shares...dow had its highes increase 206 points...so with Lead up Zinc down a fraction of a % we should see a niece rise in this stock and many of the others...and Zinifex will have to buy soon more quantaties as they MUST spend the $70millon in 12 months as the $70k they buy a day is not enough...annyone knows who the broker is who has to buy...for Zinifex....and your replies are tremendous...I have every confidence in this stock as world supplies are dropping CHINA will be the driving force for this stock...and of course not to forget they are now actively exploring....in AUSTRALIA....for more minerals


----------



## chicken (22 April 2005)

*Re: ZINIFEX..ZFX*

Just this ,Zinifex will present their first quater on the 28th APRIL...Zinc stocks declined another1554 tonnes overnight...


----------



## markrmau (22 April 2005)

*Re: ZINIFEX..ZFX*

but zinc 3 month futures down 1.2% (though this could be letting off steam from this weeks run)


----------



## chicken (22 April 2005)

*Re: ZINIFEX..ZFX*

The futures...well we are talking STOCK in HAND...manipulation by futures....see it rise today the monkey has turned..DOW is up by 206 pionts its highest rise in 2 years..LEAD is up...so your 1.2% fall means silch...the Dow does the talking...should increase by at least 10c today


----------



## markrmau (22 April 2005)

*Re: ZINIFEX..ZFX*

Manipulation of the 3 months zinc contract on the LME? Rubbish.

Chicken, by investing in zfx, you have a proxy investment in the zinc futures market. If I were you, I would try to learn as much about the futures market as I could, and find out what terms such as backwardation mean.

I am not saying zfx won't go up today, or that it won't reach $4 (though I highly doubt it). What I am saying is that the futures market suggests the spot price of zinc has further to fall (which is contrary to your implied comments about LME stocks decreasing).


----------



## chicken (22 April 2005)

*Re: ZINIFEX..ZFX*

check...www.kitcometals.com   if you wish to see the state of the metal market worldwide...I am not in any future market but in shares of ZFX...Zinc stocks are falling worldwide..so prices will rise..not any other way...this year there is a shotage of 395000 tonnes...next year even more..all is sold what ZFX produces...and you are saying ZINC will fall...the demand exceeds supply..so price will go up thats the way I see it...CHINA is the driving force....LEAD is UP....anyway check it out


----------



## Investor (22 April 2005)

*Re: ZINIFEX..ZFX*



			
				suzanne said:
			
		

> Hello Chicken,
> 
> Your enthusiasm for this share has convinced me to buy in so lets see what happens.
> 
> ...




This was the post that prompted me to type my first post in this forum a few days ago, on this thread.

I do not want to see anyone in this forum being exposed to potential financial loss, out of chicken's persistent ramping of ZFX. 

I stress that I hold ZFX and still believe it to be worth holding. 

However, uninformed investors need to adequately comprehend that an investment in ZFX does carry a higher than average risk level. 

I tried to send chicken a subtle message to stop ramping, but it seems to me that perhaps my message was too subtle. 

I will now spell it out.

ZFX is the phoenix that rose from the ashes of Pasminco, under a scheme engineered by the Insolvency Practitioner that required the approval of the consortium of bankers that had already lost a lot of money to Pasminco. If the banks did not agree on the debt to equity swap, ZFX would not exist. Pasminco was very highly geared, zinc prices were low (due to oversupply and inadequate demand) and Pasminco's due diligence team did not uncover a big loss on a 'marked to market' position with an off balance sheet derivative instrument on a takeover acquisition.

ZFX's assets are all previous assets of Pasminco. The shareholders of Pasminco lost all value from their shares, as usually happens when a company bites the dust (I did not hold any Pasminco). The banks also lost a chunk of their money to Pasminco. 

From memory, ZFX's century mine was sold by Rio Tinto to Pasminco, when Rio Tinto decided that zinc and lead were not what Rio wanted to pursue. This rules Rio out as a possible suitor for a takeover of ZFX.

In the current issue of BRW, on page 58, "ZFX is an almost pure zinc company with its fortunes tied to the demand for (and the price of) zinc. This, in turn, is tied to the demand for steel because of zinc's use in galvanising, which protects steel from rusting."

The outlook for the steel industry is unclear. Please see my comments in the thread for Bluescope Steel (BSL).

From the same kitcocasey website cited by chicken, comes the following article on zinc, which was published yesterday:

"Of course, there are X-factors that could result in unexpected price falls. As is the case for many commodities, industrial growth in the US and, particularly, China is key in driving demand for galvanized steel and therefore zinc. In the case of China, one development that may negatively impact the global zinc price is renewed central trading of the metal in Shanghai. According to a Platt’s Metals Week article late last year, four of China’s major zinc producers are considering resuming trade of zinc on the Shanghai Metal Exchange. The four companies were also reportedly considering pooled buying to achieve better prices, which could spur domestic production. However, Chinese mine production of zinc has reportedly been limited by depleting reserves, while smelter output has been limited by power shortages at facilities (such as the Zhuzhou smelter, which was forced to shut down in January), factors tending to push China in the direction of importing more.

Despite such positive developments for the zinc market, there is caution amongst both analysts and producers going forward, given the volatile price history of the metal. Last December, a Macquarie research report noted that, despite an optimistic price outlook, zinc is a “perennial dasher of hopes” and that “years of underperformance leave us cautious of getting too bullish at current levels.” At a meeting of the American Zinc Association in early March, Greig Gailey, CEO of Australian zinc producer Zinifex, owner of the Century mine in Queensland, the world’s second largest zinc producer, warned that zinc’s current bull market could be “destroyed by overinvestment in new capacity” on the part of miners and refiners. For his part, Gailey said that he sees high zinc prices sticking for three to five years. 

The same conference heard similar warnings from a CRU analyst, who warned, “The low prices seen in 2000 closed many mines or put them on a care-and-maintenance basis. These can be taken back on stream.” CRU, in fact, sees zinc reaching a 240,000 tonne surplus by 2008, at which point it will take “ten years for profit to recover.” One such mothballed project that could have a major impact on zinc prices is the Lennard Shelf mine complex in western Australia. The operation, formerly owned by Western Metals, produced 176,000 tonnes of zinc in the year ended June 30, 2003, just before it was shut down. In other words, Lennard’s output alone would make up the lion’s share of the zinc market’s current deficit. Lennard Shelf has since been bought by Teck Cominco, which reports that the complex’s potential annual capacity is as high as 3.1 million tonnes.

However, some producers may be getting out of the zinc market, even as prices rise. Late in March, Anglo-American subsidiary Kumba Resources announced that they are considering moving away from zinc because of the metal’s unstable fundamentals. Kumba’s executive director Richard Wadley told Business Day that despite the “great buoyancy in the zinc market” of late, “historically it has been very volatile.” The company currently owns an 89.5 percent stake in the Rosh Pinah mine in southern Namibia, which produces 120,000 tons of zinc annually."

I continue to hold ZFX but my entry price provides a huge margin of safety. I expect further price rises going forward, but I could be wrong and the $4 that chicken sees could be overly ambitious, unless there is a takeover.

I have also read that with mining shares, one has to know when to sell. Easier said than done, of course.


----------



## chicken (22 April 2005)

*Re: ZINIFEX..ZFX*

I am impressed with your post..question....you talk about western METALS who produced 176000 tonnes of ZINC concentrate..right..now you say they could produce 3.1 million tonnes a year..now..think what you require to produce this amount...firstly to get this capacity..you need an investment of $1 to $2 billion $$$$...to get the engineering of the project...which we have in Zinifex...the logistic of it is massive maybe $2billion is not enough so you think it will happen over night and ZINC will be cheap as chips...no this is a massive undertaking IF it will happen or when it will happen read my first posts on the company..how zinifex who are the 2nd largest producer of this metal...plus you forgot...they are large SILVER,LEAD...copper and gold producers as well...and Pasminco went BUST with $3.5 billion Dollars..as you say shareholders lost their equity..I have lost in a few companies..well it happends...bad luck,....so where is the capital coming from to build THIS infrastructure...MAKES YOU WONDER WHEN YOU THINK WHAT IT WOULD COST TO BUILD A COMPANY SUCH AS zfx...WHAT WOULD IT COST TO CREATE BUILD ANOTHER zinifex...eg SMELTERS...$2billion or $3 billion...we have 500 million shares at present value..$3...which is $1.5 billion..and you say I am dreaming re $4...the company is DEBT FREE..does that not account for the value we have plus I like to see if western Australia will produce this hugh quantaty of ZINC...what they believe they will produce so far NOTRHING is produced in this mine 176000 tonnes was produced...and these are just figures which they dream about...ZINIFEX are producing THE GOODS.. NOW when it is needed..what happends in 5 years time..well thats anybodies guess....We all can say we can produce but that now is the matter which is important..re takeover that at present share price is a high possibility...because what is Zinifex worth...plus the 5 Smelters...who are producing.....$3 is a joke because you would not be in the position at todays prices to replicate  what Zinifex has got and that is not ramping but plain facts as I see them..you build a house and everybrick COSTS MONEY..and the same with a company...it all have massive costs which ZINIFEX has got freehold...and is a great little producer..on the 28th April the 1st quater will reveal how we are going...now $70million $$ ZFX is spending to buy their own shares back...which means 20 million to 25millon shares will be of the market...I worked it out that 20 shareholders hold 425 million shares 75 million we have freefloating minus buyback...and you have 50 million shares...not much for the whole of Australia...stock is tightly held...so its going to get intresting...where this company is going from here...but they are making $$$ and producing the goods...


----------



## Fleeta (22 April 2005)

*Re: ZINIFEX..ZFX*

Chicken, I like your post. But how about using paragraphs. It makes it alot easier to read.


----------



## RichKid (24 April 2005)

*Re: ZINIFEX..ZFX*



			
				Fleeta said:
			
		

> Chicken, I like your post. But how about using paragraphs. It makes it alot easier to read.




That's probably why it isn't in paras, so you can't easily pick all the stuff that's been repeated. Not picking on chicken for the sake of it here, I just don't think he's changed his 'spots'...wonder how many people who dont post are influenced by his 'enthusiasm', let's hope they don't suffer any losses or panic everyday that ZFX stays below $4.


----------



## Investor (25 April 2005)

*Re: ZINIFEX..ZFX*



			
				chicken said:
			
		

> I am impressed with your post..question....you talk about western METALS who produced 176000 tonnes of ZINC concentrate..right..now you say they could produce 3.1 million tonnes a year..




If you read my post properly, you will see that I was quoting from an article from that kitcocasey website that you keep referring to, in many of your posts. That article was written by someone called Dave Forest. 

If you read my quote from that article properly, the 3.1 million tonnes is merely stated as potential annual capacity. Potential is very different from actual.

Perhaps you should read that article if you have not done so (if you have not done so, can I ask why, since you are such a fan of ZFX?). From that same article is the following:

"_Despite these factors, the zinc price was sluggish in the beginning of 2004 compared to other base metals, rising to $0.50/lb in the first quarter and then actually declining to $0.43/lb through to September. Why? We believe it was due to something called the “hidden stock phenomenon”. During 2002 and 2003, Teck Cominco estimates that some 517,000 tonnes of zinc entered the market, and yet official stockpiles such as those of the LME only increased by 245,000 tonnes. It’s thought that the missing 272,000 tonnes were delivered to warehouses but not reported, simply being held by buyers."_

ZFX is the second largest zinc producer. I believe Teck Cominco is the largest in the world.


----------



## Investor (25 April 2005)

*Re: ZINIFEX..ZFX*



			
				chicken said:
			
		

> sorry, zinc is not used for Stainless manufacturing my mistake but all the same its nearly up 5c..so who is buying the market tells me its a good stock....




Zinc is used for galvanising steel to prevent rusting. This is why Bluescope Steel has a product line called "zincalume". As such, the demand for zinc is linked to the outlook for the global steel industry. The global steel industry was in the doldrums a few years ago, due to serious oversupply and inadequate demand, which prompted BHP to sell its steel business (now called Bluescope Steel). 

Demand for steel then soared, due to China's rapid industrialisation and also, to a lesser but still significant extent, India. The outlook for the global steel industry is currently unclear, partly due to huge rises in iron ore and energy prices. This is why BSL is trading at a very low P/E FY 04, FY 05 and consensus FY 06. Some analysts believe demand will be sustained. Others think a fall in demand will occur. To state the obvious, there are no certainties. Only time will tell.


----------



## Investor (25 April 2005)

*Re: ZINIFEX..ZFX*



			
				chicken said:
			
		

> ...plus you forgot...they are large SILVER,LEAD...copper and gold producers as well...




chicken,

You have no concept of the level of research that I do with my investments (and I do not blame you because you do not know my background).

However, do exercise a bit more care before you allege what I "forgot".

You have asked readers to check the zinifex website on many of your posts.

If you check the ZFX website, you will see, under the caption for "Products", that ZFX's products are zinc, lead and silver. 

No copper or gold are mentioned, because these metals are so low in quantity for ZFX that the metals (by products from the mainstream zinc and lead mining) have to be stored in the store room, until they reach saleable quantities.

As for silver, if you read ZFX's financial reporting, you would be aware that only small quantities are produced. 

Questions for you: 
1. Are you aware of the outlook for lead?
2. Are you aware of how much CAPEX ZFX would have to spend to comply with EPA legislation at the end of the mine life for the two mines or if they decide to close any smelters should new smelters in China render them unviable?

To the extent that we both hold ZFX and expect price rises, we are in agreement.

Where we differ (like night and day) is that you appear to see it as a certainty, whereas, I do not. I see it as a likelihood of further price rise, with risk of price falls, should a global downturn occur (whenever it decides to do so).

My posts in this thread are intended to keep readers more informed. Information is critical whether one is an investor or a trader. Readers can make up their own minds as to what your intentions are.


----------



## RichKid (25 April 2005)

*Re: ZINIFEX..ZFX*

Investor,

I would like to thank you for your excellent posts and critical analysis in this thread (and elsewhere). I for one have enjoyed them and being a reader of other resources websites (such as caseyresearch) enjoy the reference to quality material. This is despite the fact that my trading method is based primarily (but not exclusively) on charting, quality posts are appreciated by all types of investors and traders.

It is clear from what you say that the factors which affect the sp of a stock, while they need to be understood, are normally outside the direct influence of the average investor or trader. You mention the uncertain outlook for steel  and industry dynamics. It's issues such as those that Chicken chooses to ignore or doesn't comprehend. His belief, imo, is that misreprenting and ramping a stock is going to influence the sp to his advantage. Mr Market is less malleable than that. 

In the meantime Chicken is doing little to help anyone. Perhaps the best thing he has done is encourage you to post. Perhaps that will be his saving grace.


----------



## Investor (25 April 2005)

*Re: ZINIFEX..ZFX*



			
				RichKid said:
			
		

> Investor,
> 
> I would like to thank you ......




G'day RichKid,

No problem. I will soon correct a few more 'errors' that chicken has posted.  

Regards.


----------



## chicken (26 April 2005)

*Re: ZINIFEX..ZFX*

Impressive post from Investor..I just wanted to point out what the cost would be to reproduce Zinifexes Smelter and mines...$3 billion to $4 billion..in todays costs...that you had NOT answered...the share price at $3.06 is still a joke of what they got..or are you saying I am wrong...post your reply..after all they own everything and are effectively DEBT FREE.....


----------



## Investor (26 April 2005)

*Re: ZINIFEX..ZFX*



			
				chicken said:
			
		

> ....now $70million $$ ZFX is spending to buy their own shares back...which means 20 million to 25millon shares will be of the market...I worked it out that 20 shareholders hold 425 million shares 75 million we have freefloating minus buyback...and you have 50 million shares...not much for the whole of Australia...stock is tightly held...




This misinformation about stock being tightly held has been repeated ad nauseum.

Page 55 of the ZFX Annual Report lists the top shareholders as at 13/9/04.

Of the substantial shareholders, 452 Capital Pty Ltd (a managed funds run by Peter Morgan) filed notice of ceasing to be a substantial shareholder (over 25 million shares) with ASX on 28/10/04. The details of sales of ZFX shares in that notice suggested that the shares were sold to the open market at various prices.

Deutsche Bank AG filed notice of ceasing to be a substantial shareholder of ZFX on 5/11/04 (over 33 million shares). Highfields Capital Management LP filed notice of ceasing to be a substantial shareholder of ZFX on 26/11/04 (over 25 million shares). Barclays Group filed notice of ceasing to be a substantial shareholder on 14/12/04 (over 39 million shares).

Any shareholder of ZFX (irregardless of size) can sell ZFX shares whenever they choose, because there is no law against selling. 

I will sell my 30,000 shares when my target price is reached, after I clear the 12 months holding period, to reduce CGT.


----------



## Investor (26 April 2005)

*Re: ZINIFEX..ZFX*



			
				chicken said:
			
		

> Impressive post from Investor..I just wanted to point out what the cost would be to reproduce Zinifexes Smelter and mines...$3 billion to $4 billion..in todays costs...that you had NOT answered...the share price at $3.06 is still a joke of what they got..or are you saying I am wrong...post your reply..after all they own everything and are effectively DEBT FREE.....




You do not seem to understand the difference between replacement costs of new smelters and current valuation of very old smelters (depreciated assets in worn and torn condition) if sold to the open market (a sale requires a willing buyer and a willing seller). As for mines, remaining mine life is critical and impacts on P/E valuations.

Pages 6 and 7 of ZFX's annual report outlines the four smelters. It stated that the smelter in Clarksville, USA is losing money and will require CAPEX to try to improve performance.

It is logical that if this smelter continues to lose money, say after a year or two, it will be closed and its assets sold to the highest bidder. CAPEX still required to clean up the site due to EPA laws.

If you have researched ZFX properly, you would know that the ZFX smelters are not returning adequate ROE employed. This is partly why ZFX's share price is trading at a relatively low P/E.


----------



## Investor (26 April 2005)

*Re: ZINIFEX..ZFX*



			
				chicken said:
			
		

> ...the share price at $3.06 is still a joke of what they got..or are you saying I am wrong...post your reply..after all they own everything and are effectively DEBT FREE.....




If you see $3.06 as significantly undervalued, the logical next step would be to buy as many as you can. No one will stop you.


----------



## Warren Buffet II (26 April 2005)

*Re: ZINIFEX..ZFX*



			
				Investor said:
			
		

> If you see $3.06 as significantly undervalued, the logical next step would be to buy as many as you can. No one will stop you.




Hi Investor,

Excellent posts, I am worried about Chicken now because he is going to get confused as he can't understand that kind of information. 

WBII


----------



## Smurf1976 (26 April 2005)

*Re: ZINIFEX..ZFX*

The company or the stock?

I have pretty good knowledge of Zinifex operations at a technical and practical level although I have never worked for them. Had plenty of visits to the Hobart smelter and know basically how it works (I'll pass on the specific chemistry details for now though   ). 

Very interesting stuff and it's a BIG operation in a physical sense once you get on site. They've cleaned up a lot over the past decade or so - even the old waste stockpile ("Residue Hill" as it was known locally) has been reprocessed. They've got all kinds of things to treat the air and water discharges too. Even environmentalists refer to pollution as something that happened in the past so it must be pretty clean these days. Been underground at Rosebery too.

However, and please take note of this Chicken, just because I think that the company and particularly the Hobart smelter are pretty good doesn't mean that the stock is going up, down, sideways or anything else.

Hobart (and some of the others) were a pretty good operation (technically at least) back when Pasminco blew up. The practical aspects and the financials are not necessarily the same.

IMO one of the biggest mistakes made by investors is either over, or under, emphasis on fundamentals. Fundamentals will heavily influence the LONG TERM performance of the stock but have practically no influence whatsoever in the short term unless something truly dramatic happens (like going bankrupt or a major mineral discovery).

Will ZFX be up tomorrow or next week? I don't know and neither do you.


----------



## chicken (27 April 2005)

*Re: ZINIFEX..ZFX*



			
				Investor said:
			
		

> This misinformation about stock being tightly held has been repeated ad nauseum.
> 
> Page 55 of the ZFX Annual Report lists the top shareholders as at 13/9/04.
> 
> ...



Well, Investor if you do so much research as you say how could you have missed that those 25million shares of ZFX ...were sold from MORGANS to BARCLAYS they have been adding MORE shares been buying on the open market...just wondered how you missed that


----------



## markrmau (27 April 2005)

*Re: ZINIFEX..ZFX*

From a TA perpective, zfx has done very well over the last few days, in the face of volatile metals prices and a down market. Also, it seemed to shrug off this mornings dump of 300,000 share at open.

My only concern is that deusch bank upgraded their price target to $4, but they recently sold all their shares???


----------



## chicken (27 April 2005)

*Re: ZINIFEX..ZFX*

SOLD ALL THEIR SHARES...DEUTSCHE BANK..post your evidence..as I HEARED differently....


----------



## Investor (27 April 2005)

*Re: ZINIFEX..ZFX*



			
				chicken said:
			
		

> Well, Investor if you do so much research as you say how could you have missed that those 25million shares of ZFX ...were sold from MORGANS to BARCLAYS they have been adding MORE shares been buying on the open market...just wondered how you missed that




Read my post properly. I stated that 452 Capital Pty Ltd sold to the open market.

I did not bother to tell you who the others sold to, because you need to do a bit of work yourself.


----------



## Investor (27 April 2005)

*Re: ZINIFEX..ZFX*



			
				chicken said:
			
		

> ....post your evidence..as I HEARED differently....




You tend to ask others to post evidence despite the fact that you have already been conclusively proven wrong with many of your claims, including not even knowing what zinc is used for!!! and not knowing what ZFX's main products are!!! and not knowing that one of the smelters is losing money.


----------



## Investor (27 April 2005)

*Re: ZINIFEX..ZFX*



			
				Investor said:
			
		

> chicken,
> 
> Questions for you:
> 1. Are you aware of the outlook for lead?
> 2. Are you aware of how much CAPEX ZFX would have to spend to comply with EPA legislation at the end of the mine life for the two mines or if they decide to close any smelters should new smelters in China render them unviable?




Chicken,

Any replies?


----------



## Investor (27 April 2005)

*Re: ZINIFEX..ZFX*



			
				chicken said:
			
		

> Man..there is some strenght in this stock I put an order in for 16000 shares at $2.97...and there are NO SELLERS at that price..





Subsequent to that post on 16/2/05, there were several opportunities to buy at that price and even lower over the ensuing weeks. 

With a bit of luck, you might get to buy at that price, once ZFX has finished the $70 million buy back (the buy back has been very slow - is ZFX expecting further price weakness? Time will tell).


----------



## Investor (27 April 2005)

*Re: ZINIFEX..ZFX*



			
				chicken said:
			
		

> here is another intresting thought...I keyed in zinifex..just to find out how much the 20 largest shareholder are holding in stock....84.5% is owned by 20 institution and privat induviduals...that equates to 500million shares and only say 15% is on the market....that is 75million shares for everyone or the public...very tightly held this stock..so..in fact 425million shares are not available....so with Zinc,Lead,Copper,Silver,Gold all up in price...and their own smelters and now into exploration...this could become another WMC..ZFX has got the capacity to do it....any comments ,we all like to hear from anyone on this subject please...




Looks like you did not like to hear from me!


----------



## Investor (27 April 2005)

*Re: ZINIFEX..ZFX*



			
				tech/a said:
			
		

> Chicken
> 
> Do you honestly believe this conspiracy rubbish you espouse!
> 
> ...




He might believe the conspiracy nonsense but it would appear that he expects others to believe (if so, how naive he is and does he take us for fools?).

Any market manipulators out there? How do you carry tonnes of zinc around and where do you park them?


----------



## chicken (27 April 2005)

*Re: ZINIFEX..ZFX*

THE share price is up the market decides being short is not a good idea in this stock...but someone has again presold...check...asx on the shortsells...but each to their own..also what will happen in 10 years...does BHP concern themself with that...they will adress it when the time comes..so, being negative about a stock which will happen in 10 years...Investor, who knows what happends in 10 years..I dont ,YOU dont so talk about what we are doing NOW...tomorrow...anybodies guess...and you have not answered me re VALUE...$3.06 is still a joke watch on thursday the results might be a big supprise..If you sell or buy..well that is your business and I dont really care what you do with your stock...mine ,I am happy to hold


----------



## chicken (27 April 2005)

*Re: ZINIFEX..ZFX*

JUST got the air news....UBS still bullish on ZFX..it says also they value the share at $3.10...target price $3.73....


----------



## Investor (27 April 2005)

*Re: ZINIFEX..ZFX*

Do you actually know the difference between a valuation (now) and a target price (a year down the track???).

Also, do you realise how many times you have repeated this same information in so many of your posts? Give it a rest, chicken.


----------



## Investor (27 April 2005)

*Re: ZINIFEX..ZFX*



			
				chicken said:
			
		

> ZFX..still heading north what a share..my $4 just about there.....bought more today at $3.42....




On 2/3/05, you stated "my $4 just about there". Did you get the year wrong??? Did you mean 2006?  

You could not buy any share at $2.97 on 16/2/05 (in your earlier post) and so you bought at $3.42 on 2/3/05. And you call yourself "chicken"? 

No wonder you think the current price is low.


----------



## Warren Buffet II (27 April 2005)

*Re: ZINIFEX..ZFX*



			
				chicken said:
			
		

> JUST got the air news....UBS still bullish on ZFX..it says also they value the share at $3.10...target price $3.73....




UBS

The broker expects the March quarter to be weak due to production downtime at Century, but notes the outlook remains positive as current commodity prices suggest company guidance of a FY05 profit of $190m will be conservative, with a result of $227m possible if commodity prices remain at current levels. The broker also expects the share buyback to provide support and notes the stock is trading at a discount to NPV. Valuation is $3.10. 

Target price is $3.72  Current Price is $3.08 Difference:$0.64 

If ZFX meets the UBS target it will return approximately 17%


----------



## Investor (27 April 2005)

*Re: ZINIFEX..ZFX*



			
				chicken said:
			
		

> .... I dont really care what you do with your stock...




Likewise.


----------



## Smurf1976 (27 April 2005)

*Re: ZINIFEX..ZFX*



			
				chicken said:
			
		

> SOLD ALL THEIR SHARES...DEUTSCHE BANK..post your evidence..as I HEARED differently....



This "prove it" business is a common means of trying to silence someone you don't agree with. Usually, it's done when the person making the "prove it" demand has no other argument to present.


----------



## tech/a (27 April 2005)

*Re: ZINIFEX..ZFX*

-----


----------



## chicken (28 April 2005)

*Re: ZINIFEX..ZFX*

Check it out results are better than was expected...what a bugger for some...looks like the shorts are in for a short shift...


----------



## Investor (28 April 2005)

*Re: ZINIFEX..ZFX*



			
				chicken said:
			
		

> Check it out results are better than was expected...what a bugger for some...looks like the shorts are in for a short shift...




And the share price promptly fell 3 cents to $3.07.


----------



## chicken (28 April 2005)

*Re: ZINIFEX..ZFX*

Yeah,because the shortseller pumed stock at a discount into the market hoping some of the mucks will sell cheap..did not happen..shareprice is back up..what a bugger for the shortseller..


----------



## chicken (28 April 2005)

*Re: ZINIFEX..ZFX*

The shortsellers are still very active in this stock...must be the bigboys playing...but thats the market we little fellows dont count they shift it up or down because if you have millions..one can do that sell and buy at the same time..that is what is happening today..might even be active tomorrow again with the same result...and then driving it back up


----------



## Investor (28 April 2005)

*Re: ZINIFEX..ZFX*

chicken,

The price has fallen to $3.01. This is despite ZFX being in the market actively buying as part of the buy back exercise. 

Here is one additional aspect of analysis for you. The USD / AUD exchange rate impacts on ZFX's EPS.


----------



## Porper (28 April 2005)

*Re: ZINIFEX..ZFX*

Well, that's me stopped out, a quick 10% loss in just over a week.Very tempted to stay in but rules are rules and you have to stick by them.I bought them purely on T/A, but obviously got it wrong.

They are going down despite the buy back supporting the price.Doesn't look too good IMHO.Good luck if you hold.


----------



## chicken (28 April 2005)

*Re: ZINIFEX..ZFX*

Porper...watch mondays price rise..they danced this way for the last 8 weeks..crazy stock this..buyback very slow..dont know whats wrong with the broker...results were good...check it out...MAP seems to race ahead...ZFX..is up and dow like a jo jo


----------



## chicken (28 April 2005)

*Re: ZINIFEX..ZFX*

Further manipulated down by brokers afterhours trading..see tradingroom should bounce back tomorrow..100k shorts have disappeared....Like a JO,JO...brokers seem to like this stock...I call the buying by ZFX pathetic...I just dont seem to understand the broker just buying 50k shares 25k shares a day...it will take 2 years to spend the money if they carry on buying like that I dont call that buying activly...more passive if you ask me


----------



## Joe Blow (28 April 2005)

*Re: ZINIFEX..ZFX*



			
				chicken said:
			
		

> Further manipulated down by brokers afterhours trading..see tradingroom should bounce back tomorrow..




Chicken, please remember that you are soley responsible for the content of your posts. What evidence do you have that the ZFX share price was 'manipulated' down by brokers in after hours trading?

Also, how do you know that ZFX will bounce back tomorrow? Do you have access to a magical crystal ball that the rest of us don't?

You are really skating on thin ice here.


----------



## chicken (28 April 2005)

*Re: ZINIFEX..ZFX*

Joe..check www.tradingroom.com.au   it shows a drop of 2 cents by brokers after 4 PM...it shows how many trades and how many went through at $2.96....so only brokers can and trade after hours..check it out also I posted the shortsells at the ASX that shows as you know the shortsells.. check the trading patterns in the last 8 weeks...makes intresting reading...its traded by a broker very activly...he brings it up and he brings it down...the results were good...the company supplies 6% OF THE WORLD zinc MARKET..ALSO LEAD IS UP IN PRICE...AND OTHER METALS SILVER,COPPER,AND GOLD ALL UP IN PRODUCTION....


----------



## Joe Blow (28 April 2005)

*Re: ZINIFEX..ZFX*



			
				chicken said:
			
		

> Joe..check www.tradingroom.com.au   it shows a drop of 2 cents by brokers after 4 PM...it shows how many trades and how many went through at $2.96....




But how is this 'manipulation' by brokers? 

How is it the after hours trade in ZFX today any different to the after hours trading in any other stock? Perhaps you should explain exactly what you mean and which brokers you are referring to?

Is the after hours trading in every stock 'manipulation'?


----------



## Investor (28 April 2005)

*Re: ZINIFEX..ZFX*



			
				chicken said:
			
		

> ...it shows how many trades and how many went through at $2.96....so only brokers can and trade after hours......




Get real. If I key in a buy or sell order at 3.59 pm (and I have done so with other shares), I can get trade confirmation at 4:10 pm. This happens in the market on a daily basis. 

Cut the nonsense about manipulation. Who in his/her right mind would even try to manipulate while there is a buy back exercise happening?

Options to short, are not peculiar to ZFX. They are part of the huge derivatives market.

ZFX is not a "mums and dads" stock counter. The shareholders are mainly professional institutions and hedge funds. 

You did not get my earlier message. Production is one thing. ZFX exports in USD. The USD/AUD exchange rate will impact on NPAT.

ZFX is taking a slow approach with the buy back, probably because it expects further price falls. If I was in charge of the buy back, I would do the same, if I expected further price falls.

The IPO was April 2004. Soon, many investors would cross the 12 months' holding time frame and be eligible for reduced CGT, if they choose to sell.

Just to add to your seemingly current state of confusion, there are severe macro economic issues that the G7 nations and Asian Central Banks are grappling with, including renewed discussions of cross border trade barriers against China.

Should the Asian central banks stop supporting the American twin deficits or global financial markets decide to deal with the imbalances, say next week, ZFX's share price, along with the rest of global equity markets would nosedive. This is also partly the reason why global equity markets are jittery and on edge. It could happen very suddenly, without warning.


----------



## Smurf1976 (28 April 2005)

*Re: ZINIFEX..ZFX*



			
				Investor said:
			
		

> Should the Asian central banks stop supporting the American twin deficits or global financial markets decide to deal with the imbalances, say next week, ZFX's share price, along with the rest of global equity markets would nosedive. This is also partly the reason why global equity markets are jittery and on edge. It could happen very suddenly, without warning.




Personally I don't expect any form of crisis due to the American deficits YET but that's just a personal opinion (OK, I do have a basis but that's way too far off the topic of this thread. Suffice to say look at the long term USD charts and you'll see what I'm thinking. Also look at the long term AUD charts while you're at it...).

But you're dead right about the risks to the equity markets in general IMO, especially that last bit about no warning.


----------



## chicken (28 April 2005)

*Re: ZINIFEX..ZFX*

we really started and stirred a hornets nest...


----------



## chicken (28 April 2005)

*Re: ZINIFEX..ZFX*

check...www.kitcometals.com   the article Investor was refering to is very intresting all about ZINC production etc...it says ,,TAKING STOCK OF ZINC...one must read it as it explains all about ZINC worldwide...good find INVESTOR


----------



## markrmau (28 April 2005)

*Re: ZINIFEX..ZFX*



			
				chicken said:
			
		

> it shows a drop of 2 cents by brokers after 4 PM...




Chicken, you can participate in the market close as well. Just stick your order in between 4pm and about 4.04pm (finish time varies).  Please see:

http://www.asx.com.au/investor/education/basics/trading_hours.htm


----------



## chicken (29 April 2005)

*Re: ZINIFEX..ZFX*

Check..www.kitcometals.com   article ..the resource sector...it mentioned re ZINC...being in defecite by 200000 tonnes....read it


----------



## Warren Buffet II (29 April 2005)

*Re: ZINIFEX..ZFX*



			
				chicken said:
			
		

> Check..www.kitcometals.com   article ..the resource sector...it mentioned re ZINC...being in defecite by 200000 tonnes....read it




and?


----------



## chicken (29 April 2005)

*Re: ZINIFEX..ZFX*

Read it I said ,it also mentioned that ZINC went higher in price by a massive 32%.......check...www.kitcometals.com   its all there on public domain...todays trading...gets more funny by the day.....I am not ramping just thinking aloud


----------



## RichKid (30 April 2005)

*Re: ZINIFEX..ZFX*



			
				chicken said:
			
		

> Read it I said ,it also mentioned that ZINC went higher in price by a massive 32%.......check...www.kitcometals.com   its all there on public domain...todays trading...gets more funny by the day.....I am not ramping just thinking aloud




Chicken,
Why don't you use the blog/journal facility that Joe has provided if you can't keep your repetitious thoughts to yourself?? How many times must you be told not to repeat the same old rubbish, if you have nothing new or of quality to contribute I can't see the purpose of you posting anymore. If you are incapable of maintaining a particular standard of posting then maybe you should go to a forum that has a lower one. 

Alternatively, apply to ZFX to become a company spokesman, you'll be like that old Iraqi (mis)information minister during the invasion, repeating the same old stuff regardless of what was really happening.


----------



## chicken (30 April 2005)

*Re: ZINIFEX..ZFX*

What I meant if you checked...ZFX traded on friday between $2.92...and $3.25..so if that is not peculiar you tell me why....bounced as I said the day before only 2 cents higher....peculiar trading the whole day also if you read the report only 2%...down of their production...but they got a lot more $$$ for their ZINC,LEAD as was expected...so overall a good result.....


----------



## chicken (30 April 2005)

*Re: ZINIFEX..ZFX*



			
				Investor said:
			
		

> Get real. If I key in a buy or sell order at 3.59 pm (and I have done so with other shares), I can get trade confirmation at 4:10 pm. This happens in the market on a daily basis.
> 
> Cut the nonsense about manipulation. Who in his/her right mind would even try to manipulate while there is a buy back exercise happening?
> 
> ...



Have you ever thought what would happen to the ASIAN population if they did NO support the US $$$....think..if we go down...CHINA and the rest of ASIA cannot afford to do that as it would mean massive unemployment in their own country...thats why the ASIAN TIGER supports the US $$$....any other way and we are down the plug hole...as well as ASIA would be in this situation..for that to happen a war would have to be in the offering...I know some of you would like it, but be rest assured commonsense will prevail...and the Asian TIGER will carry on supporting the currency...FOR THE ASIAN POPULATION...NOT for any other reason...THEY NEED THE WESTERN WORLD TO CONSUME...the share market may come down but goes up as well


----------



## Investor (30 April 2005)

*Re: ZINIFEX..ZFX*



			
				RichKid said:
			
		

> Chicken,
> .....
> Alternatively, apply to ZFX to become a company spokesman, you'll be like that old Iraqi (mis)information minister during the invasion, repeating the same old stuff regardless of what was really happening.




Excellent suggestion  

To boldly go where no chicken has gone before.


----------



## chicken (1 May 2005)

*Re: ZINIFEX..ZFX*

Investor..well said ,but the ASIANs need the west to sell their consumer products ,where you coming from in reference ASIAN CENTRAL BANK support a few would love to pull the plug but they wont because it will in affect ,affect their own ecconomic surfival , so the ASIAN TIGER WILL TRY AND BITE his OWN TAIL without reaching it going round in circles  such is capitalism.....because if they pulled the plug we will all be up the shute


----------



## Investor (1 May 2005)

*Re: ZINIFEX..ZFX*



			
				chicken said:
			
		

> Investor....,where you coming from in reference ASIAN CENTRAL BANK support a few would love to pull the plug but they wont because it will in affect..




chicken, it is amazing how you can twist and turn. You have difficulty reading properly, spelling properly and understanding properly.

Read my post properly. I stated:

_"Should the Asian central banks stop supporting the American twin deficits..."._

There has already been plenty of media coverage on this issue for many months. Including current BRW and the aireview issue no. 55. 

I have read that Warren Buffett, Bill Gates, George Soros, Alan Greenspan and Ken Henry (in the Australian Treasury Dept. and on the board of the RBA)
are concerned about this issue. Clearly you are not concerned. No problem. If it were to become a problem in the ensuing months, at least you will know what hit you. And.... it was not a combine harvester.

From reading your posts, I do not expect you to understand the extent of the issue. You do not appear to have studied economics (at tertiary level).

In Feb. 05, South Korea suggested that it might diversify from holding USD foreign reserves to other currencies. The Dow Jones index fell 1.5% as a reaction and global financial markets went in a spin. This was merely one indication. There are others.

I get the impression (rightly or wrongly) that you rely on your broker for advice. If so, your broker's advice is only as good as his/her skill set. The broker's income stream is reliant on clients' trades. Whether you end up making money or not, the broker has collected the fee.


----------



## Investor (1 May 2005)

*Re: ZINIFEX..ZFX*

chicken, read your post on 28/2/05 in another thread where you stated:

"THINK ABOUT THIS....the market determins the price...not posters , as they cannot influence what happen from day to day...look at the resources..a 3c share goes to 30c...and their asset is 1c...so your argument or statement is of no foundation...the market decides what happends..and WHY...there is allways a reason...people know..like you said you buy TLS at $5...well we all like dreamers...its just not the way the market works and because you are not buying well who cares...because if you have not a billion $$$ you cant influence what happens in the market Mr Packer can because he has the equity to do so...so your thread on sharevalue..is just impossible to give a true answer because thats a holy grail which is impossible to answer because if everyone thought the way you seem to ,there would be no market...we all think differently...thats why the buyers think long and the sellers are short..you seem to be in the later group who thinks we should all give our stock away..no my friend thats not the way it works but we all make up our own way...thats why you have a market...THE MARKET DECIDES....BETTER BELIEVE THAT".



You seem to contradict yourself in this ZFX thread, do you not? Not once, but many times.

The market has decided on ZFX's share price on a daily basis and you call it "manipulation".

Yes, if the day comes when you decide to sell ZFX shares, the market will decide what price you can sell at. BETTER BELIEVE THAT (your words, not mine).


----------



## chicken (1 May 2005)

*Re: ZINIFEX..ZFX*

Investor you are right...but one needs not to be a rocket scintist to see what is being played....by the way I am German..so excuse my bad English but one tries to make oneself understood...I see you are a person of letters...well I am not, but just common sense..I think I got it right...yes the market decides the price but ZFX price on friday was between $2.93....and $3.25..tradingroom confirmed these trades...so what is value...????


----------



## Investor (1 May 2005)

*Re: ZINIFEX..ZFX*



			
				chicken said:
			
		

> Investor you are right.....by the way I am German..so excuse my bad English ...yes the market decides the price but ZFX price on friday was between $2.93....and $3.25..tradingroom confirmed these trades...so what is value...????




OK. I was not aware of your heritage. I will say no more on that matter.

Another correction - the trading price range was $2.92 to $2.98 on Friday (just read the newspaper or check your computer screen). At the risk of stating the obvious, this means any buyer or seller would have traded ZFX at a price within that range on Friday. 

There is a saying - price is what you pay, value is what you get. 

This means if you overpay (say $3.42 - which you did - when value should be $3.10 - which is the UBS valuation that you keep telling us all about), you will probably suffer a capital loss down the track if you sell soon after buying. Conversely, if you know how to buy when value is less than market price (say $2.80 when value should be $3.10), you will probably make a gain soon after.

I have a method of valuing shares but I will not reveal it, just as Warren Buffett never reveals how he calculates intrinsic value. The reason is simple. If everyone knows how Buffett does it, Buffett would no longer have the advantage. 

My buying method is similar to Warren Buffett. I buy when I believe, based on my own calculations, that the market price is below the value, to an extent which gives me an adequate margin of safety. A small margin of safety would not interest me because I merely wait (months or years) until market sentiment is bad enough to give me a price that is adequately below my valuation. However, market sentiment can still fall further even after my purchase, further lowering the price, which is not an issue for me unless I decide to buy more.

Examples are my entry price into ZFX and my purchase of WMR below $5 in mid 2004.


----------



## chicken (2 May 2005)

*Re: ZINIFEX..ZFX*

How was this for a prediction....?????


----------



## Joe Blow (2 May 2005)

*Re: ZINIFEX..ZFX*



			
				RichKid said:
			
		

> Alternatively, apply to ZFX to become a company spokesman, you'll be like that old Iraqi (mis)information minister during the invasion, repeating the same old stuff regardless of what was really happening.




Sorry, couldn't resist! Just kidding chicken!


----------



## chicken (2 May 2005)

*Re: ZINIFEX..ZFX*

Joe, love your reply I am not that bad ....LOLOLOLOLOL


----------



## chicken (10 May 2005)

*Re: ZINIFEX..ZFX*

Zinc up in price also lead is higher...should see $3.10 today....


----------



## dutchie (13 May 2005)

*Re: ZINIFEX..ZFX*

Looks like it might break below $2.80 next week.


----------



## Investor (13 May 2005)

*Re: ZINIFEX..ZFX*

It touched $2.85 in the first 30 minutes of trading this morning. Despite the buy back program still in place.


----------



## tech/a (13 May 2005)

*Re: ZINIFEX..ZFX*

Joe

Love the graphics just rolled around for hrs!!

Humour---- should be more of it!


----------



## Joe Blow (13 May 2005)

*Re: ZINIFEX..ZFX*



			
				tech/a said:
			
		

> Joe
> 
> Love the graphics just rolled around for hrs!!
> 
> Humour---- should be more of it!




Glad it gave you a good giggle. Was hoping it would lighten the mood.

I'm a firm believer in the idea that laughter is the best medicine... for pretty much everything.   

Yes, there should be more of it. Inspiration will strike again. Eventually.


----------



## Investor (13 May 2005)

*Re: ZINIFEX..ZFX*



			
				Investor said:
			
		

> ....ZFX is taking a slow approach with the buy back, probably because it expects further price falls. If I was in charge of the buy back, I would do the same, if I expected further price falls.
> 
> ....




Looks like ZFX did expect further price falls and of course was proven correct. If anyone can value ZFX properly, it would have to be ZFX.

The buy back program still has $61.767 million to spend, out of $70 million. If ZFX does not buy many shares today (current price $2.84), it would send a message that it expects the SP to fall further.


----------



## stockGURU (13 May 2005)

*Re: ZINIFEX..ZFX*

Looks like it may test support at $2.75. Watching this one closely.


----------



## chicken (13 May 2005)

*Re: ZINIFEX..ZFX*

Same old dance...monday it will be up again just to prove you all wrong...monday, tuesday up...and then slowly down....buying time wed,thursd,friday selling time monday,tuesday...thats the way its done with this share..Macquarie said Zinc stockpile is falling...so prices will stay firm same as Nickel..which is very short at present..China likes Stainless steel....Zinc is rising...see www.kitcometals.com  gives you all whats been happening...UBS..has still a firm buy on this stock..as far as buy back the broker is waiting for what.???.Zinifex is a company which is debt free..the money in the bank in fact makes them undergeared...maybe they are looking to buy another resource company to grow bigger...they have got the $$$$..and might supprise jet......


----------



## Investor (13 May 2005)

*Re: ZINIFEX..ZFX*

3,776,666 shares in ZFX were traded today at a price range of $2.83 to $2.88.

Watch for ZFX's announcement on Monday as to how many shares it bought today.

If 200,000 or less were bought by ZFX, all traders take note.......

Shorting this stock is as close to a "done deal" as you can get. However, make your own decision, as I cannot give any financial advice.


----------



## GreatPig (13 May 2005)

*Re: ZINIFEX..ZFX*

Looks like there could be a triangle breakout. On only medium volume, but not a great sign in my book.

GP


----------



## RichKid (13 May 2005)

*Re: ZINIFEX..ZFX*



			
				stockGURU said:
			
		

> Looks like it may test support at $2.75. Watching this one closely.




I agree, that's an important level, in fact, if you look at a chart of the Zinc price you'll see why things are looking bleak short term.


----------



## chicken (14 May 2005)

*Re: ZINIFEX..ZFX*



			
				Investor said:
			
		

> 3,776,666 shares in ZFX were traded today at a price range of $2.83 to $2.88.
> 
> Watch for ZFX's announcement on Monday as to how many shares it bought today.
> 
> ...



FUNNY, BUT, the shorts have gone out of most of their short position...Zinifex is in the fortunate position...of being DEBT FREE...not many companies in this position....I still say its a long, why...SHORTAGE IN THE LONGTERM OF ZINC....and Maquarie are saying the same...as I said before we dont want the share going forward before the end of the finacial year end but should go higher after as far as next week we should see the share do the same as it has done the last 8 weeks....see the ASX as they show every share you can shorten...and the shorts at present.....


----------



## chicken (14 May 2005)

*Re: ZINIFEX..ZFX*

Proviting from a wall of worry....intresting read on   www.kitcometals.com   what he said is very intresting..read it if you are invested in resources.....


----------



## Investor (14 May 2005)

*Re: ZINIFEX..ZFX*



			
				Investor said:
			
		

> ....Just to add to your seemingly current state of confusion, there are severe macro economic issues that the G7 nations and Asian Central Banks are grappling with, including renewed discussions of cross border trade barriers against China.
> 
> ....... It could happen very suddenly, without warning.




*It has happened*. The following announcement was made over the past 24 hours:

"The Bush administration, reacting to a flood of Chinese clothing imports since January, said that it would impose new quotas on cotton shirts, trousers and underwear."

There could be adverse implications for all mining company shares. See my other post on the BHP / Rio Tinto thread.


----------



## Investor (14 May 2005)

*Re: ZINIFEX..ZFX*



			
				chicken said:
			
		

> ..China likes Stainless steel....




Is that because of the wide choice of colours or because of the selection of sizes available in Small, Medium and Large???


----------



## It's Snake Pliskin (15 May 2005)

*Re: ZINIFEX..ZFX*



> "The Bush administration, reacting to a flood of Chinese clothing imports since January, said that it would impose new quotas on cotton shirts, trousers and underwear."




Concerning to say the least. But the Americans have never been about free trade. Just look at the barriers that were part of the free trade agreement. Free trade, but not for a few years. The barriers that exist with farming exports with America and the EU are anti free-trade.

However, I don't htink the impact of a few cotton shirts will adversely affect the global demand for key resources such as zinc, nickel etc. I might be wrong, we'll have to wait to see.

I think it's important to look ahead long term and not panic once a piece of news stirs up the short term sentiment. We are all aware of the huge trade imbalance between China and the US; something I have expected was trade barriers being used to try to rectify it.


----------



## chicken (16 May 2005)

*Re: ZINIFEX..ZFX*



			
				Investor said:
			
		

> Is that because of the wide choice of colours or because of the selection of sizes available in Small, Medium and Large???



YOU GET MORE FUNNY BY THE DAY..ZINC is not used for STAINLESS steel...I just pointed out the fall of stocks in the stock...so dont make me look stupid......You will find ZFX will go higher when it breaks out of the traiangel...ZINC is in short supply..stocks are falling...also Nickel...check...wwwkitcometals.com


----------



## Warren Buffet II (16 May 2005)

*Re: ZINIFEX..ZFX*



			
				Investor said:
			
		

> 3,776,666 shares in ZFX were traded today at a price range of $2.83 to $2.88.
> 
> Watch for ZFX's announcement on Monday as to how many shares it bought today.
> 
> ...




ZFX bought-back 800.000 shares last Friday. I guess they think the price is right now


----------



## Investor (16 May 2005)

*Re: ZINIFEX..ZFX*

WBII,

Yes. ZFX bought 800,000 shares at between $2.82 to $2.88 perhaps indicating that it is more prepared to support this price level. It now has $59 million left from the $70 million buyback, to spend.

Price fell to a low of $2.72 this morning. It is now caught in the current global sell down of mining shares, but then again, it might have been prepared for this and decided on the "go slow" buy back to date.


----------



## chicken (16 May 2005)

*Re: ZINIFEX..ZFX*

Today its a BIG BUY on this stock will not get any cheaper even selldown will not work...see their announcement will go higher....cheap entrey today...ZFX still has 59 million to spend and shares are tightly held...the new strategy will help this share to go higher for sure...


----------



## It's Snake Pliskin (16 May 2005)

*Re: ZINIFEX..ZFX*

Yes, today's announcement will only enhance their operations!

I'm looking for a buy at the bottom.


----------



## Investor (16 May 2005)

*Re: ZINIFEX..ZFX*

Now at $2.67, a hefty fall of 5.7% from Friday's close.

Some of ZFX's shares are / were held by hedge funds. The hedge funds that do get caught with liquidity issues, will probably sell into the open market at 'market price'.


----------



## chicken (16 May 2005)

*Re: ZINIFEX..ZFX*

Investor read their announcements...this share will rise again as even the hedgefund will not reduce it further..do you know if the hedgefund is in NO its just been manipulated by brokers...Zinifex has just secured a great deal for its shareholders...CHINA needs ZINC...and there is a shortage...ITS a BUY on this stock...


----------



## Investor (16 May 2005)

*Re: ZINIFEX..ZFX*



			
				chicken said:
			
		

> Investor read their announcements.....




I already have....... this morning. Made no impact as it was merely fast tracking an existing project. So what???

Obviously, the market took little notice of it as well. Price touched $2.65 a short time ago. 

Now, it is my turn....... tell me whether you are aware of the "out of Court settlement" that ZFX paid last week???

No .... I did not think so.


----------



## chicken (16 May 2005)

*Re: ZINIFEX..ZFX*



			
				Investor said:
			
		

> I already have....... this morning. Made no impact as it was merely fast tracking an existing project. So what???
> 
> Obviously, the market took little notice of it as well. Price touched $2.65 a short time ago.
> 
> ...



Well, so what but at least they are going forward in their projects..and are debt free....


----------



## Investor (16 May 2005)

*Re: ZINIFEX..ZFX*

The price touched $2.63 ..... how low will it go???

Answer: No one knows. If most or all the hedge funds have to exit, the $70 million buy back is a relatively paltry sum.


----------



## chicken (16 May 2005)

*Re: ZINIFEX..ZFX*

Check..www.kitcometals.com   Nickel is now on the critical list only 4900 tonnes and disapearing fast..price will stay high...now ZINC ,LEAD are also in decline stock wise...so we should see the price stabilize or rise....even if hedgefunds will reduce the Superfund will buy because the company is sound.....I have bought more today as it will rise you will see...see their anouncements..positive for ZFX...and Smuggler who cares what you say


----------



## Joe Blow (16 May 2005)

*Re: ZINIFEX..ZFX*

Chicken, you are testing my patience again.

Please, do not clutter this thread with information you have repeated again and again. It is becoming tiresome. When you have some NEW information then feel free to add to this thread. 

From now on, I will simply be deleting posts that repeat the same information (i.e ramps) and those who persist with this behaviour will have their posting privileges suspended for a period of time to be determined by me.

I have had enough.

P.S. I have just deleted some of the posts made today that add nothing to this thread.


----------



## Porper (16 May 2005)

*Re: ZINIFEX..ZFX*

GO, Go, Go ZFX.   

Sorry, only joking.

Amazes me how Chicken can keep on ramping this stock when it is in a downtrend, especially as the company are in the midst of a buy back.

The trend speaks volumes on this little baby.

Infact looking around, Zinc stocks, metals etc. aren't doing too well at all lately.


----------



## Smurf1976 (16 May 2005)

*Re: ZINIFEX..ZFX*

Now that ZFX appears to be quite clearly heading down, the question arises as to how far?

Any thoughts as to what lies ahead?


----------



## Investor (16 May 2005)

*Re: ZINIFEX..ZFX*



			
				Smurf1976 said:
			
		

> Now that ZFX appears to be quite clearly heading down, the question arises as to how far?
> 
> Any thoughts as to what lies ahead?




What lies ahead is uncertainty. 

The largest shareholder of ZFX is Farallon Capital (American) with 11.2% of total shares. 

The website for this shareholder states:

"Farallon's investment philosophy is to invest in businesses and securities that are undergoing change. Farallon’s investments are primarily those in which a known or expected event (a merger, restructuring, recapitalization or other major change) will cause an appreciation in the value of the particular investment. Investments include public and private debt and equity securities, direct investments in private companies and real estate. Farallon invests globally, focussing on developed and emerging markets alike. 

Farallon places a priority on the preservation of capital, while seeking to achieve extraordinary risk-adjusted returns in each of its investment disciplines. It manages risk through rigorous research, including consultation with industry, legal and regulatory advisors."

In the short term, if this shareholder sells for whatever reason, the SP of ZFX will probably fall. How low??? Depends on whether buyers can be found, if sellers outnumber buyers by any sizeable margin. However, this is merely a short term price volatility factor. In the longer term, ZFX's price hinges on production volumes, zinc price, lead price, exploration success, USD/AUD forex, global competition that its four smelters face, cost controls, quality of management, and what the markets estimates for the eventual capex for EPA compliance are (currently $250 million being discounted off from DCF intrinsic value), etc.

It is incredible that chicken still repeatedly mentions (today) that ZFX is tightly held, despite being corrected about this issue, by me, on 26/4/05.


----------



## Investor (16 May 2005)

*Re: ZINIFEX..ZFX*



			
				Investor said:
			
		

> .... Depends on whether buyers can be found, if sellers outnumber buyers by any sizeable margin.....




That should have been typed as "sellers outnumber buyers at any given asking price, thus requiring a lowering of the asking price for a trade".

Any seller of any asset will know that the eventual price depends on a firm buyer being willing to pay that price. Example, if any seller wanted to sell ZFX at $3 today, it would not have been possible. If that seller had to sell, say to meet a margin call, that seller would have to meet the market to achieve a sale.


----------



## chicken (17 May 2005)

*Re: ZINIFEX..ZFX*



			
				Investor said:
			
		

> What lies ahead is uncertainty.
> 
> The largest shareholder of ZFX is Farallon Capital (American) with 11.2% of total shares.
> 
> ...



INVESTOR....Read my 3rd or 4th posting re Zinifex...what the directors said and there opinion about ZFX...you will see they are one of the lowest cost producer of ZINC,and lead...also there announcement yesterday will be positive for Zinifex...all the advisers are putting a price of $3.07  on this stock...there will be a wall of money today going back into the market...ZFX will be higher today whatever you say....IF is a big word and I am sure Capital Investment are not just ready to sell....you seem to be a pessamist on this stock....the company is DEBT FREE ,lowcost producer and with their latest deal set for a longtime of mining ahead for them....and its all in stable AUSTRALIA...not in other parts of the world....


----------



## krisbarry (17 May 2005)

*Re: ZINIFEX..ZFX*

...And yes the daily "RAMPING" has started again....BORING   zzzzzz!


----------



## chicken (17 May 2005)

*Re: ZINIFEX..ZFX*

Barry we know you are a pain proved it on another board...what a bugger share price has risen 10cents nothing to do with ramping just telling the public not to listen to all the shorts......LOLOLOLOL


----------



## Investor (17 May 2005)

*Re: ZINIFEX..ZFX*



			
				krisbarry said:
			
		

> ...And yes the daily "RAMPING" has started again....BORING   zzzzzz!




Yes. I also find it boring. 

In addition, I found it annoying and irritating to see the same old spin being regurgitated ad nauseum.

I would not have bothered wasting my time with chicken, if I did not read that post by another person, that indicated to me, an innocent bystander might have gotten lured by such false claims by chicken of $4, despite the repeated posts by chicken about the UBS valuation being $3.10. Talk about an anomaly. 

I decided to explain some of the risks involved in holding ZFX shares in case there are other readers who might be interested.

Today's valuation figure posted by chicken is now $3.07 which is a slight downward adjustment. 

Daily share price changes do not bother me, as I am not a trader. 

I have an entry price and an exit price at a given time frame, from the outset (except for shares which I intend to hold forever - ZFX is not one of them - ZFX was merely a market mispricing that I took advantage of in 2004). 

What happens in between my entry point and my targeted exit point, I merely monitor but usually ignore.

ZFX bought 640,000 shares at between $2.65 and $2.78 yesterday. This is not a good sign. If ZFX considered the price to have levelled out, it should have bought more.

I have dropped my eventual targeted exit price partly because of this indication from ZFX and partly because of that out of Court settlement last week. ZFX did not inform shareholders as to whether that was a one-off settlement or whether there were others to be made.


----------



## chicken (17 May 2005)

*Re: ZINIFEX..ZFX*

This out of court settlement...you seem to be stuck on that...if it was important the market would have been imformed...so if it was not announced I would suggest its NOT important enough to bother the market ...As far as the price you should cheer but..What ZFX bought yesterday...well it looks like the market likes their new deal...and so seem to be the advisers today....what you buy is your business  what you sell is your business..but I was 100% right when I said it was a BUY yesterday...even so you said IF that...happends...the market is saying they like the new deal...


----------



## It's Snake Pliskin (17 May 2005)

*Re: ZINIFEX..ZFX*

The deal seems to be doing a lot for Terramin with regards to its share price. 
I'm still positive on ZFX though. Missed yesterdays low becsuse I set my buy order a little too low and missed by 2 cents.


----------



## chicken (17 May 2005)

*Re: ZINIFEX..ZFX*



			
				Snake Pliskin said:
			
		

> The deal seems to be doing a lot for Terramin with regards to its share price.
> I'm still positive on ZFX though. Missed yesterdays low becsuse I set my buy order a little too low and missed by 2 cents.



Now, if I was ZINIFEX...I would buy them out...as ZFX is undergeared and in the position to take them out...money would not be the problem....just a thought...they are cheap enough in price....


----------



## Investor (17 May 2005)

*Re: ZINIFEX..ZFX*



			
				chicken said:
			
		

> ZFX..still heading north what a share..my $4 just about there....bought more today at $3.42...this is a MELBOURNE CUP WINNER...




At today's closing price of $2.71 (same as yesterday), you are already 20.76% down. 

To reach $4 will require a 47.6% rise. 

Melbourne Cup Winner???


----------



## Investor (17 May 2005)

*Re: ZINIFEX..ZFX*



			
				Joe Blow said:
			
		

> Chicken, you are testing my patience again.
> 
> Please, do not clutter this thread with information you have repeated again and again. It is becoming tiresome. When you have some NEW information then feel free to add to this thread.
> 
> ...




Joe, 

I fully agree.


----------



## Smurf1976 (17 May 2005)

*Re: ZINIFEX..ZFX*

Another day, another installment in the ZFX saga...

After mining the ore and production of concentrate (at the mine) and shipping the concentrate to the smelter, the next key step in producing zinc is ROASTING.

At Zinifex Hobart Smelter the ore is stored near the wharf at which it is unloaded from the ships. The roasters are higher up (the site is moderately sloping) such that the main conveyor is also sloping upwards, much like a RAMP.

Roasting is also what's done to *chickens*...  

P.S. I'll leave the purification, electrolysis and casting processes for another ramp. Oops! Sorry! I meant "post". Who on earth would think of ramping Zinifex anyway...

By the way, roasting is a combustion process. Combustion - another thing that happens to chickens when they're ramped, sorry that should be "roasted", too long.


----------



## DTM (17 May 2005)

*Re: ZINIFEX..ZFX*



			
				Smurf1976 said:
			
		

> Who on earth would think of ramping Zinifex anyway...




Someone who ramps BPC maybe....??  

Maybe its a timing problem, not one of ramping.  A problem common to all of us.  

I personally think that resource stocks will come back with an avengance.  My brother in law who is a trader of chemicals came back two weeks ago from visiting his business contacts in China.  He told me how huge the amount of work being done there was.  Infrastructure wise, things were still steaming full speed ahead.  His Chinese contacts were saying that their goal was growing internal demand with self sufficiency as the final goal.

This is not advice and I wouldn't rely on these statements.


----------



## It's Snake Pliskin (17 May 2005)

*Re: ZINIFEX..ZFX*



			
				Smurf1976 said:
			
		

> Another day, another installment in the ZFX saga...
> 
> After mining the ore and production of concentrate (at the mine) and shipping the concentrate to the smelter, the next key step in producing zinc is ROASTING.
> 
> ...




Not bad Smurf, not bad at all!


----------



## chicken (18 May 2005)

*Re: ZINIFEX..ZFX*

You are right...zinifex does not need ramping...the figures speak forthemself..after all I am just posting facts...sorry if some people dont like it but..its information which the investor needs..some people keep it to themself...you know what I mean......


----------



## Warren Buffet II (19 May 2005)

*Re: ZINIFEX..ZFX*

Hi all,

Strong shake up from ZFX today, they traded almost 5% of ZFX total shares and the price went up more than 4%.

So, ZFX could buy-back around 5% of its shares   . I am not saying ZFX bought all those shares today, I am saying someone was buying very strong today and they could have more than 5% ownership after today.

Very interesting

Let's see tomorrow


----------



## burnhi (20 May 2005)

*Re: ZINIFEX..ZFX*

Zinifex clearly gapped up today, on the fib, however most of the buying would be suspected to be their own buy back. I still believe it will fall back through as there were still many sellers prepared to liquidate into the tide. Its a volatile stock that moves quickly, one way or another. 
Please Note: I am shorting from 303. 
Rgds
Burnhi


----------



## chicken (20 May 2005)

*Re: ZINIFEX..ZFX*



			
				Warren Buffet II said:
			
		

> Hi all,
> 
> Strong shake up from ZFX today, they traded almost 5% of ZFX total shares and the price went up more than 4%.
> 
> ...



Slow day today.....ZINIFEX bought yesterday only out of the 28million shares....250K.....so they have plenty of $$$$ left...not in any rush that broker.....


----------



## chicken (21 May 2005)

*Re: ZINIFEX..ZFX*

Check...www.kitcometals.com  Zinifex mentioned in an article about ZINC....


----------



## Porper (21 May 2005)

*Re: ZINIFEX..ZFX*



			
				chicken said:
			
		

> Slow day today.....ZINIFEX bought yesterday only out of the 28million shares....250K.....so they have plenty of $$$$ left...not in any rush that broker.....




You have to wonder why they aren't aggressively buying back at the moment.The only answer I can find is that they think the shares will go lower.Seems the only common sense reason to me.

I got out a while ago for a small loss, and won't think about trading them again for a good while yet.


----------



## tech/a (21 May 2005)

*Re: ZINIFEX..ZFX*

Thats what they would want to do.

Shifting the market higher through your own buying wouldnt be a good move.

They obviously see this price as fair otherwise they wouldnt buy any.
They have just as much idea (The broker) of the direction of the stock as you do.

They just make a judgement on value nothing more.

Havent traded ZFX for ages made a few $$s then left and forgot about it a it hasnt been alerted again.
Come back here and its still held by many----coupled with the usual speculation.

Technically as I pointed out weeks ago its dead in the water.
Worse its still drowning.


----------



## It's Snake Pliskin (21 May 2005)

*Re: ZINIFEX..ZFX*



			
				chicken said:
			
		

> Check...www.kitcometals.com  Zinifex mentioned in an article about ZINC....




Encouraging news if it eventuates.   

Any comments on ZFX's management? Anybody?


----------



## Investor (21 May 2005)

*Re: ZINIFEX..ZFX*

The Daily Resource - 5/20/2005 

By Dave Forest  
May 20, 2005 

www.caseyresearch.com 

What will be the go-to base metals for investors over the coming months? According to analysts Smith Barney Citigroup, the most upside will come from aluminum, zinc, and iron ore. Iron, notes Australian Investment Review, is a particular favorite of SBC, with the group expecting the price to stay strong through 2008. They also see zinc supply falling short of demand, leading to high prices in 2006 and 2007.

At the same time, however, one of the world’s leading zinc producers warned yesterday that the fate of the market is largely in the hands of suppliers. *Representatives of Zinifex, the world’s second-largest zinc producer, told a conference that the zinc market is approaching a “zone of exuberance” similar to 2000 when overinvestment in new supply drove the price down and gutted the industry.* The company cautioned that zinc miners must only invest in the highest-quality projects over the coming years if they want to preserve the integrity of the market.

Zinc dipped 1 cent on the day, to a current $0.5507/lb, falling in line with a general sell-off in the base metals. Copper fell more than 1.5 cents to $1.4328/lb, while nickel dropped 15 cents to $7.5978/lb and aluminum shed half a cent to $0.7814/lb. Lead alone bucked the trend, rising a quarter cent to $0.4466/lb.

The fall in base metals was in line with a broader decline in metals. Gold, after rising nearly $4 Wednesday, promptly gave back most of the gain yesterday, falling more than $3 to briefly touch $419/oz late in New York trading. The metal then bounced back above $420 overnight, currently trading at that mark. Silver also fell on the day, although not as sharply, giving up only 10 cents to a current $7.08/oz.

The losses came as the dollar hovered uncertainly around $1.2640 against the euro following poor US economic news. A report yesterday showed that the Philadelphia manufacturing index fell to 7.3, down from 23.5 in April. The slide was more than twice as large as expected by many analysts. The news sent yields on 10-year US Treasuries lower, likely driving investment away from the US and the dollar.


----------



## Investor (21 May 2005)

*Re: ZINIFEX..ZFX*



			
				chicken said:
			
		

> Slow day today.....ZINIFEX bought yesterday only out of the 28million shares....250K......




Yet another error by chicken.

The 250,000 shares were bought on Wednesday. 

ZFX has not filed any Notice of the Buy Back of shares, on Friday, for any purchase on Thursday.

Either ZFX did not buy any shares on Thursday; or is late with the filing; or there has been a technical problem with the reporting. 

We will have a better indication on Monday, provided there is a filing of documents. 

The broker doing the buy back program, like any other broker, has to take instructions from its client, ZFX. This is merely stating the obvious. If it is slow, it is because ZFX wants it to be slow. 

As I have already stated, in a previous post, the logical reason why ZFX is taking it slow, is probably because it expects the price to fall. At any point in time, ZFX has more information to form expectations of its own SP than anyone else, including any broker.


----------



## Investor (22 May 2005)

*Re: ZINIFEX..ZFX*



			
				tech/a said:
			
		

> .....Technically as I pointed out weeks ago its dead in the water.
> Worse its still drowning.




For all readers who hold ZFX, there is no need for any alarm.

On fundamental analysis, ZFX has a very strong financial position (liquidity position is excellent and gearing risk is low - total liabilities $587.7 million of which $246 million are provisions for future EPA compliance - against equity of $1,105.6 million as at 31/12/04). It will not collapse like Pasminco did.

First half NPAT of $88.9 million. This represents 87% of the previously forecast full year NPAT of $102.0 million and equates to an interim EPS of 17.8 cents.

On annualised basis, EPS is 35.6 cents. At closing price of $2.80 on Friday, the P/E is 7.865 which is not demanding.

Consensus P/E FY 30/6/05 from 6 brokers is 6.3 and consensus P/E FY 30/6/06 from the same 6 brokers is 4.9 (April 05 figures). 

The P/E for ZFX is low to reflect the high risk nature of the investment. To use the P/E of 7.865 that I have calculated above, for analysis; it means that if ZFX continues to earn EPS at that rate; it would take a payback period of 7.865 years for an investor paying $2.80 a share, to recoup the principal sum invested. Any return above that is profit on investment, ignoring the time value of money. 

NTA per share as at 31/12/04 was $2.21 which does not really mean much but provides a small indication.

The inverse of the P/E ratio gives an expected yield on the investment. At $2.80 a share and EPS of 35.6 cents, the yield is 12.71% p.a.

The consensus P/E FY 05 and 06 from the 6 brokers (for whatever it might be worth - a guide at best) provides an expectation by those brokers that future EPS for ZFX up to 30/6/06 will rise from the actual EPS as at 31/12/04.

In its half yearly report, ZFX stated:

"At 31 December 2004 the company held cash reserves of $164.4 million. With outstanding borrowings of $158.5 million at the same date, the company was effectively debt free. In accordance with previously stated intentions, the directors have determined that a portion of this cash is surplus to the needs of the company and should be returned to shareholders. Accordingly, commencing in April 2005, Zinifex intends to conduct an on market buy back of its issued capital up to $70 million."


ZFX is also spending millions on exploration costs to try to find new ore reserves. If such exploration should prove successful in finding new reserves, a market re-rating of the SP is likely. There is never any certainty that money spent on exploration by any mining company can be successful or whether new reserves if found, can be rich enough to be viable. The latest JV with Terramin looks promising at this juncture, but potential ore reserves have yet to be accurately estimated because it takes time and money to complete the process.

There is still considerable upside towards holding ZFX if the consensus P/E FY 05 and 06 are realised, but it needs to be understood that this is a relatively high risk investment, with the attendant risks that I have already outlined in a previous post. This is reflected in the relatively low actual and forward P/E vis a vis ASX 100 mining companies. 

With a market capitalisation of $1.4 billion, ZFX currently ranks at number 100 in the ASX 100.

With the profile of some of the major shareholders of ZFX, expect SP volatility. It is a given. I continue to hold 30,000 shares. At my low entry price in 2004, volatility in the share price has never bothered me. 

Warning: This post is not investment advice. I do not hold a licence to provide financial advice.


----------



## tech/a (22 May 2005)

*Re: ZINIFEX..ZFX*

*Investor.*

Why hold a fundamentally sound company when its clearly headed south?

While ZFX may well retutn to being percieved as good value by the market --its not now.

Youll see when the market does and thats when to go back in.

*My post is prompted by reading time and again countless posts of people looking for the slightest scrap of positive news they can find to substantiate their purchase.This is not limited to this thread either.*
The market clearly in control of their "hard earned" and not they!

While longterm holding is a valid trading stratagy---------I use it myself--- those who are forever looking for reasons to feel happy about their purchase arn't in that group.They've lost control and mostly they are losing money.

*Both tragic consequences of either NO Trading Plan or No ability to STICK to a trading plan.*

Im certaintly not advocating Technical analysis is better than Fundamental.
There is a place for both.

Its those traders Im refering to.


----------



## Investor (22 May 2005)

*Re: ZINIFEX..ZFX*



			
				tech/a said:
			
		

> *Investor.*
> 
> Why hold a fundamentally sound company when its clearly headed south?




Your view is that it is clearly "headed south". That is not my view, although I clearly admit that I could be wrong. If I am wrong, I only make less on an after tax basis, when I exit. If I am right, I make more money. In any event, I merely enjoy the process of analysis and the challenge of this risk / return proposition. Otherwise, I would place the money on more AGL or WOW (lower beta) shares or 6% bank interest.

To me, hedge funds unwinding and foreign shareholders selling out (due to consensus view of weakening AUD) have been a factor for the supply of ZFX shares driving the price down, in recent times, but I could be wrong.

The other main reason for recent SP weakness has been the uncertainty with the outlook for the global steel industry (a prime user of zinc) and questions about the extent of previously undeclared zinc stockpiles, but again I could be wrong.




			
				tech/a said:
			
		

> While ZFX may well return to being perceived as good value by the market --its not now.
> 
> You'll see when the market does and that's when to go back in.




I have my own style and you have your own style.




			
				tech/a said:
			
		

> My post is prompted by reading time and again countless posts of people looking for the slightest scrap of positive news they can find to substantiate their purchase.This is not limited to this thread either.
> The market clearly in control of their "hard earned" and not they!




Rest assured that I do not look for the slightest scrap of positive news to substantiate my purchase. That is not my style. If you have that mis-perception of my posts, then please be corrected. I only post here to keep my brain active and to get some "interaction" with people now that I have left the workforce. 

As for the market being "in control and not they", again, that is your view, not mine. I am in control - it is my money and I can decide what I do with it. To me, that is my control.




			
				tech/a said:
			
		

> While longterm holding is a valid trading stratagy---------I use it myself--- those who are forever looking for reasons to feel happy about their purchase arn't in that group.They've lost control and mostly they are losing money.




I wonder whether you are insulting my intelligence. Have I unwittingly stepped on your toes, that you feel the need to appear (to me) to be so confrontational? All I did was to state my opinion that ZFX is not "drowning" (your words not mine).




			
				tech/a said:
			
		

> Both tragic consequences of either NO Trading Plan or No ability to STICK to a trading plan.




I am not a trader and thus, have no need for any trading plan. My investment plans have enabled me to retire at 43, wealthy enough for two generations. I have never been a trader and will never be a trader. What is so tragic about the consequences???




			
				tech/a said:
			
		

> I'm certaintly not advocating Technical analysis is better than Fundamental.
> There is a place for both.




Agreed.




			
				tech/a said:
			
		

> Its those traders I'm refering to.




I am not a trader. So you are not referring to me then?


----------



## It's Snake Pliskin (23 May 2005)

*Re: ZINIFEX..ZFX*



			
				tech/a said:
			
		

> *Investor.*
> 
> Why hold a fundamentally sound company when its clearly headed south?
> 
> ...




Hello Tech/A,

I have read this post many times and cannot discern your intended message. 

I am guilty of being positive on ZFX and I have a plan. Yes, PLANNING is important as are opinions. 

With respect to technical analysis and fundamental analysis I see them as both being useful.   

What traders are you refering to? Day traders? 

Thanks for your informative posts in the past.


----------



## tech/a (23 May 2005)

*Re: ZINIFEX..ZFX*

*Investor/Tina*

Id have thought that reading this and the MUL thread would have clearly indicated where I'm coming from.

To use as an example "chicken" bought ZFX at $2.37 has a veiw of $4 watches stock increase 50%(approx) ,then watches it fall to near enough his buy price.Still ramping all the way down.

A trader on MUL thread admitted buying at 1.7c watching it go to a staggering 12c (700%) then watched it fall to around 2.8c (Its now 1.5c) They were as happy as larry that at 2.8 they had an 80% profit.Its possible they still held to here!

*Over 95% of people trade like this.They have no idea when to fold'em and when to hold'em.*

Some of the 5-7% successful traders ARE here.So to are many of those who fall in the 95% of strugglers


Im simply pointing out very bad trading habits,hoping that they can be recognised even by those using them,and along the way making suggestions and offering up ways in which to improve their trading.

If there are nothing in my posts for you(Meaning everyone out there in cyberland) thats fine.
Specifically in this instance I wasnt targeting you *Investor*

I try not to target anyone---although I must admit its very difficult to be specific in general terms!!


----------



## chicken (23 May 2005)

*Re: ZINIFEX..ZFX*

POST 244 tells you what the advisers think the price should be...not my advice but from brokinghouses...and with the new deal it will get there as soon as the finicial year is finished in the meantime same old situation...


----------



## tech/a (24 May 2005)

*Re: ZINIFEX..ZFX*

*Chicken*

Advisers price targets are ALWAYS met contrary to price action? Is that your philosophy?/Plan.

Longterm investors dont comment on every piece of news coughed up.Short termers who get caught generally do!!

The only problem/s they have is when is the stock a good buy.
$3 ,$2.50, $2.00?? any price under $4?
How long do you hold the stock when it is below your purchase price OR below your selling price target?
Do you hold indefinately if price is below your buy price?
Do you sell at $4 exactly---$3.98---or would you hold if trading went above---when/why then would you decide to sell?

*Investor*

Im interested in your comments to the questions above.From your Fundamental experience and veiw.
Im a Technical Trader and you Fundamental---how do you look at a trade like this.
Do you consider lost opportunity cost?

There are only 2 ways I know of of increasing your profits from trading.

(1) Trading winning trades MORE OFTEN (not conducive to buy and hold  and sitting in falling stocks)
(2) Trading bigger winners for longer (also not conducive to being in a falling stock waiting for the market to turn).

Im genuinely interested if there are some ways I,m not aware of.


----------



## Investor (24 May 2005)

*Re: ZINIFEX..ZFX*



			
				tech/a said:
			
		

> *Chicken*
> 
> Advisers price targets are ALWAYS met contrary to price action? Is that your philosophy?/Plan.
> 
> ...




I bought ZFX in 2004 when I realised that it was underpriced by the market. I knew the reasons why it was underpriced by the market. 

During the last 2 months, there has been a well documented and explained  "pause" or pull back in the theory of the super mining cycle. 

Yes, I could have sold in Feb 2005 for a tidy profit (over 100% return in less than a year) and pay the CGT this financial year and buy again when the SP goes down. If I was a trader, I might do that. Book keeping costs (I find tedious even though I am a CPA), transaction costs (though relatively small) and CGT are factors to consider.

To cut to the chase, I continue to hold ZFX because I view it to be a potential takeover target. There can never be any certainty with such prospects of course, but I do have some track record for picking potential takeover targets (some are hits, ... others are misses  ... the profits from the hits more than cover for the opportunity costs of the misses). 

To analyse the upside of a takeover target .... take the current price $2.85. Adding a 35% to 50% takeover premium (the market norm, depending on bidding competition) equates to $3.85 to $4.27. 

Current downside risks are not huge. Perhaps short term SP movement down to $2.50 should the number one American shareholder exit entirely. A movement down to that level would be merely temporary, while other buyers move in, provided ZFX's earnings momentum is intact. From one of Warren Buffett's writings, "In the short term, the market is a voting machine. In the longer term, it is a weighing machine."  Short term volatility tends to revert to fundamentals. 

Analysing ZFX's financial position; the actual P/E and forward P/E; provides guidance that the downside risks of a big price fall is remote.

The likelihood of ZFX being a takeover target hinges on whether the theory of the super mining cycle resumes the upward trajectory after the current pause. If it does, I continue to hold. If it becomes evident that the cycle is over, I exit at a later stage. 

I am currently balancing the upside against the downside of holding ZFX and the upside wins.

A study of previous mining cycle booms (some time ago now) indicate that the mining giants, when flushed with cash, tend to go shopping, to take out the smaller competitors.

Potential mining giants who could be interested in a takeover of ZFX, if the super cycle resumes, are BHP, South Africa's Anglo American, Brazil's CVRD and Canada's Tech Cominco.

I also think it is only a matter of time, before China steps out and buys mining companies, not just commodities, to secure supply chains.

Time will tell. But, time is what I have. I have very little risk of ever losing capital on this play. It is merely a matter of how much I make. The opportunity costs do not bother me. 

It is positive to note the latest ASX filing by Barclays Global Investors on 23/5/05 that it has increased its shareholdings from 7.55% to 8.68% at average buy price of $2.96. Despite the outlook for the AUD, Barclays see upside in ZFX. 

A falling AUD increases ZFX's EPS, other things being equal. 

My play in ZFX is relatively small, in proportion to my portfolio. It is merely a side bet. I do not spend too much time on it. 

I posted information on this thread for the benefit of readers who might be lured by chicken's ridiculous rampings.

Bottom line - all readers of this thread are now better informed about ZFX than if I did not post.

Any comments, except from chicken (please give it a rest chicken, clearly you are out of your league).


----------



## tech/a (24 May 2005)

*Re: ZINIFEX..ZFX*

*Investor.*

Thanks for the reply.
As ZFX has overtime remained profitable the decision making process has held for you---so its no biggy riding out a correction.

However lets look at potential investors (Longer term having a similar veiw to you---re under or fair valued possible take over bid.).

Without the added security of having a profit buffer how would a buyer (Now)
(who traded fundamentally) approach the questions I posed Chicken?
While youve answered my question re possible selling points----how long do you hold---if the share stagnates?/worse continues to fall (Making it more appealing to potential buyers).

Perhaps its one of structuring a plan as it unfolds?
This could be dangerous if the plan doesnt follow as one expects.

Profit certaintly affords one time to think and opens many positive options.
Failure---well options are limited---often in action which compounds any problems.

tech


----------



## Investor (24 May 2005)

*Re: ZINIFEX..ZFX*

tech/a,

I will get back to you. I am going out to a concert tonight - Katie Melua from UK, is performing.

BTW, I have never read the thread for MUL. I do not read many threads in this forum. My interest is mainly in ASX 150, with a few in the ASX 200.

A reasonable day in the market today. No profit downgrade.


----------



## tech/a (24 May 2005)

*Re: ZINIFEX..ZFX*

No rush just interested.


----------



## chicken (24 May 2005)

*Re: ZINIFEX..ZFX*

here is something of intrest...www.kitcometals.com   23rd may article by Mr DAVE FOREST   THE DAILY RESOURCES.....great mention re ZINIFEX..... also Investor I enjoied what you posted...but what you said about ZINIFEX I could not have said it as good as you posted ,and I am allways intrested in your posts...ZINIFEX as I said before is very much in  the situation of being taken over...its just to gooder price for someone even at the figures you posted...its only a matter of when.....and at what price....I am sure it will happen......


----------



## It's Snake Pliskin (25 May 2005)

*Re: ZINIFEX..ZFX*

What's happening with the buyback? They haven't posted any news on the amount of shares being bought back. 

In a buyback can companies miss days and buy when they want to? Or, do they have to buy everyday? This is proof I don't know what I'm doing!


----------



## chicken (25 May 2005)

*Re: ZINIFEX..ZFX*

On the buyback the broker can sit on the sideline and buy when he wishes...There has been heavy buying recently in this stock...also the broker gets his instruction from  Zinifex and the buying was only 100k   so as I said heavy buying from someone..who? dont know..... go to www.tradingroom.com.au   go to zfx and all their announcements are there....


----------



## Investor (25 May 2005)

*Re: ZINIFEX..ZFX*



			
				tech/a said:
			
		

> *Investor.*
> 
> .... lets look at potential investors (Longer term having a similar veiw to you---re under or fair valued possible take over bid.).
> 
> ...




For potential investors, although the fundamentals of ZFX appear sound, there is a significant aspect to be wary of, as I have previously alluded to.

ZFX made the announcement of the $70 million on market buyback in Feb 05 for execution in April 05.

In accordance to finance theory, it is good capital management for a company that views its shares to be undervalued by the market, to conduct an on market buyback. Warren Buffett mentioned this in one of his writings and I agree with this. Future EPS will rise, other things being equal, because there are less shares, after the buyback.

Between Feb. 05 and now, some occurrence has caused ZFX to be reluctant to proceed with the buyback in any meaningful way. Compare the current buyback executions of BSL and ZFX and it is like chalk and cheese.

ZFX has spent a mere $13.6 million of the $70 million. With the passing of each trading day, ZFX has been sending a covert message to the market that it expects the SP to fall. 

At any point in time, ZFX has a better idea of its likely SP movements than anyone else (except perhaps for "chicken" who knows the price will go up   . Sorry chicken, but you really set yourself up because you cannot help it due to your enthusiasm for this stock - Rule Number One - never get emotionally attached to any stock - you are swimming with professional money sharks - if they can take money away from you, they will).

I have yet to work out what has happened to cause ZFX to go slow to such an extent. My *conjecture*:

1. ZFX is aware of a big shareholder who is seeking off market share placement for an exit. If that shareholder cannot find placement at the offer price, an on market exit is the only way out. This drives the SP down, due to liquidity issues, depending on the size of the exit. Probability: Moderate chance.    

2. ZFX is aware of a contingent liability/liabilities that has/have occurred that will reduce EPS. Under ASX rules, it should be informing the market if the sum is significant enough. Hence, unlikely.

3. ZFX is now aware (not in Feb 05) that global zinc supplies by other suppliers are due for a huge rise. Probability: High.

If ZFX is expecting SP falls, it is likely that SP will fall.

If anyone is interested in a buying opportunity based on fundamentals, the occurrence of scenario no. 1 above, would present a reasonable case because the selling is due to shareholder liquidity issues, not ZFX's fundamentals.

However, if scenario 3 emerges, SP of ZFX is likely to stagnate, at best, fall somewhat; more likely.

There is some buying support for ZFX today, in line with overall mining sector shares. If ZFX does not buy any today, it is probably best for everyone to avoid buying at this stage.

In today's newspaper:

"Morgan Stanley has begun coverage on ZFX with an "overweight" recommendation and forecast target price of $3.45 in 12 months." 

The implied yield is 18.96% p.a. based on current price of $2.90.

If realised, or 50% close to, it would cover my opportunity costs.

Regarding opportunity costs, my borrowing costs is 6.6% p.a. fixed for 5 years (I get a better rate due to size of a/c). After deducting tax, my funding costs is around 3.3% p.a.  I can cover that quite easily, with the expected EPS yield from ZFX.

I will hold until such time when I see one of the following:

1. It becomes clear to me that the mining cycle has turned for the medium term (1 to 2 years); not just a pause. Currently unclear, but I am expecting continuance of the uptrend, barring occurrence of big adjustments to global fiscal imbalances, in which case, all bets are off and all markets will nosedive.

2. ZFX's EPS will fall, for whatever reasons that I become aware of, not just short term (a year), but over the medium term.

Neither scenario has occurred yet. Should it occur, I exit.

Warning: This post is not investment advice.


----------



## tech/a (25 May 2005)

*Re: ZINIFEX..ZFX*

*Investor*

Thanks for the insight.

Must admit that its certaintly a vastly different way to approach trading than
my way.
I can see from your writings the WHY you trade this way.
Its your method and your comfortable with it---fair enough.


Me Im purely numbers over X period if I do X+Y=Z Im pretty sure my return will be at least Z,Many times I have no idea nor do I want or need to know what a company does or how its going.


----------



## Rockon2 (27 May 2005)

*Re: ZINIFEX..ZFX*

Hello all  

ZFX looking ok,, we shall see!


----------



## chicken (27 May 2005)

*Re: ZINIFEX..ZFX*

Good one...Maquarie has just placed an outperform on Zinifex...they are very enthusiastic for this stock...just the latest today...I had bought more that day I posted a buy on ZFX...bought at $2.65...20k....so well in profit...


----------



## chicken (27 May 2005)

*Re: ZINIFEX..ZFX*

I also meant to post that one of Zinifex director has been Apointed to the St Barbara mines or SBM board...as Director....could be intresting to watch the developments......its all wheels within wheels....just thought I post that....


----------



## Rockon2 (27 May 2005)

*Re: ZINIFEX..ZFX*

Yes gday chicken.. good news ta..  

Im new to this site, was a recco by Mofra, I know him from another chat site.

He mentioned  a great post or link in here by WayneL.? on ETO's...

Better keep looking :bigun2:


----------



## chicken (28 May 2005)

*Re: ZINIFEX..ZFX*



			
				Rockon2 said:
			
		

> Hello all
> 
> ZFX looking ok,, we shall see!



Tech/a....I see from this chart that ZINIFEX is forming a traiangle...meaning that once it reaches the point we may see the stock rise considrebly....as I said before Maquarie just advised the market on friday it put OUTPERFORM on ZINIFEX....also note the large turnover in this stock finishing on the high....ZINC is starting to shine..so higher price should follow....also see what I said about one of the directors joining SBM...CHINA is definitly the driving force...AND the large buying at present makes one wonder what is going on.....Investor anny idea...please post....also you said you once had something todo with food...what do you think of BPC.......


----------



## GreatPig (28 May 2005)

*Re: ZINIFEX..ZFX*

ZFX did indeed recently break out of a symmetric triangle, in the downward direction. It has now returned to the apex, as is quite common after triangle breakouts. It is also common at that point for prices to return to the direction of the breakout - downward in this case. However, false breakouts are not uncommon either, so continued upward movement is also quite possible.

At this point I'd personally be playing the wait-and-see game.

GP


----------



## It's Snake Pliskin (30 May 2005)

*Re: ZINIFEX..ZFX*

MARKET TALK: ZFX Can Still Hit A$4 in 12 Months - Merrill 29/05/05 09:37:00+ 

  0937 [Dow Jones] STOCK CALL: Despite extreme earnings volatility, Zinifex
(ZFX.AU) offers excellent leverage to zinc market, says Merrill Lynch. Maintains
Neutral recommendation, adding: "We believe that in a deficit zinc market, the
risk reward continues to favor owning ZFX up to A$4/share," vs A$2.93 last.
Momentum, history suggest A$4 achievable next 12 months, driven by strengthening
zinc market, additional capital (buyback) initiatives. (JAD) 

Contact us in Sydney. 61 2 8235 2950; 
djnews.sydney@dowjones.com 

  (END) Dow Jones Newswires
  29-05-05 2337GMT(AP-DJ-05-29-05 2337GMT)

(C) Dow Jones & Company, Inc. All rights reserved.

It seems some people are still positive on this stock.


----------



## chicken (30 May 2005)

*Re: ZINIFEX..ZFX*

NOW...why would they not be positive...do your research...and find out your reason for those recomendation...Company debt free and making money also 2nd largest producer of ZINC...read why and what I POSTED...and others as well see what the INVESTOR posted.....I allways have said $4...WHOOO i am maybe right after all.....bought another 20k at $2.65...the day I said BUY.....


----------



## tech/a (30 May 2005)

*Re: ZINIFEX..ZFX*

Chicken your trading hope not price action.

80% of predictions by "experts" fail that I see.
You buying another $20000 worth doesnt make it more bullish either.
Why mention that??


----------



## Investor (30 May 2005)

*Re: ZINIFEX..ZFX*

A snapshot of a post which I posted on another thread:

Whitney Tilson is a highly successful US money manager, and a student of human behaviour. His recent presentation, entitled Applying Behavioural Finance to Value Investing, draws upon several columns he has written for the likes of the Wall Street Journal, in which he identifies and examines those traits of human nature that turn a seemingly rational investor into a luck-be-a-lady irrational gambler.

*Be warned, we are all about to enter a hall of mirrors and may not like what we see*.

Tilson believes that investment success requires far more than intelligence, good analytical abilities and proprietary sources of information. Equally important is the ability to overcome the natural human tendencies to be extremely irrational when it comes to money. As Warren Buffet puts it, "Once you have ordinary intelligence, what you need is the temperament to control the urges that get other people into trouble investing."

Consider an experiment by the Nobel Prize-winning economist, Vernon Smith, in which a group of participants would trade a dividend-paying stock, the value of which was clearly laid out for them. 

Invariably, a bubble would form, with the stock later crashing down to its fundamental value. One might expect that the participants, having suffered terrible losses, would have learned not to speculate. Yet when they gathered for a second session, still the stock would exceed its assigned value, though the bubble would form faster and burst sooner.

The conclusion drawn is that the lesson learnt by investors the first time was not: "don’t speculate", but rather: "sell more quickly once the bubble starts to burst". Of course this doesn’t work either, as few people accurately time the top and everyone tends to head for the exit at the same time.

Says Smith, *"They always report that they’re surprised by how quickly it turns and how hard it is to get out at anything like a favourable price". It is only when the session is run a third time that the stock trades near its fundamental value, if at all*.

*Tilson suggests that one of the biggest problems facing human investors is that they tend to be overconfident in their view of things. Not just "robustly", but "wildly" overconfident*. 

It is such irrational overconfidence that Tilson believes gets investors into trouble. Moreover, *it turns out that the more difficult the task (such as predicting the price of a stock), the greater the degree of overconfidence*. And professional investors – the so-called experts – are generally even more prone to overconfidence as they have theories and models which they tend to overweight.

Tilson explains overconfidence by suggesting that people generally remember failures very differently from successes. *Successes were due to one’s own wisdom and ability, while failures were due to forces beyond one’s control. Thus people will tend to believe that with a little better luck or fine-tuning, the outcome will be much better next time*.

Overtrading is a fine example of overconfidence, Tilson suggests. In a study of 78,000 individual investors at a large US discount broking house during 1991-96, average annual turnover was around 80%. The least active quintile, with an average annual turnover of 1%, scored a 17.5% annual return. The S&P return was 16.9% over the same period.

The most active 20% of investors, with annual turnover of greater than 100%, scored a 10% annual return.

The authors of this study thus concluded that "trading is hazardous to your wealth". And perhaps more thought-provokingly, another study by the same authors showed that investors who switch to on-line trading, hence cutting out the human broker in between, suffer significantly lower returns.

Tilson’s conclusion is that investors have an awful, unshakeable habit of piling into the hottest investment fad at precisely the wrong time. If there’s one thing as certain as death or taxes, says Tilson, it’s that investors will chase performance, almost always to their detriment.

Whereas chasing performance irrationally may be one example of detrimental human behaviour, the real problems start when one considers the other side of the equation – selling. Possibly the hardest thing an investor has to do is to make a decision to sell at a loss. 

One’s inability to admit that one may have made the wrong decision is part of the problem. As Tilson suggested, we attribute success to ourselves, but failure to outside forces. Nevertheless, in selling situations, the real demon is the tendency to put one’s head in the sand in the irrationally desperate hope that when one pulls it out again, it will all have been just a bad dream, and the stock is back where it was.

Tilson makes the perfectly rational suggestion that an investor should always step away from their portfolio and consider, "would I buy that stock now?" If the answer is no, then why hold on?

Tilson suggests another extremely sensible exercise (he’s kind of annoying like that). Take your portfolio, and pretend you’ve turned it all into cash. 

Now, from a totally fresh position, decide upon the portfolio you would really like to have now. Is it different? Yes? Then why the hell is it?

As Tilson so poignantly points out, keep in mind that a stock doesn’t know that you own it. Its feelings won’t be hurt if you sell it, nor does it feel any obligation to rise to the price at which you bought it so that you can exit with your investment – not to mention your dignity – intact.

Humans don’t only turn into irrational reprobates at the thought of selling at a loss either. An equally unjustifiable opposite is the blind hope that a stock may return to a price where you wished to buy it in the first place, having since moved up. If your rational mind can suggest that a stock is worth buying up to a certain price, then go ahead. 

The same philosophy can be applied on the downside. Just because a stock you’ve bought falls in price, it doesn’t mean you must be wrong. Some short term influence may be at play, and the reality is that a dip is an opportunity to buy more at an even better price.

Tilson refers to this as "anchoring". That is the tendency to stubbornly stick to your original evaluation without taking time to step back and review any new information, or objectively analyse any specific force acting upon a stock price.

To recap, the lesson so far is: don’t get swept up into chasing a stock, but don’t be too stubborn to increase a buying price. Don’t be foolish enough to hang on to a stock when it’s fallen, but don’t sell if you still believe in it. *And don’t be overconfident for no good reason. It’s all very simple, isn’t it?*


My comments: 

I like the part which states "Successes were due to one’s own wisdom and ability (i.e. brilliant price prediction) .......... while failures were due to forces beyond one’s control (i.e. market manipulation by brokers, etc.) 

It's not my fault - the dog ate my homework


----------



## It's Snake Pliskin (30 May 2005)

*Re: ZINIFEX..ZFX*



			
				chicken said:
			
		

> NOW...why would they not be positive...do your research...and find out your reason for those recomendation...Company debt free and making money also 2nd largest producer of ZINC...read why and what I POSTED...and others as well see what the INVESTOR posted.....I allways have said $4...WHOOO i am maybe right after all.....bought another 20k at $2.65...the day I said BUY.....




Chicken,

You are so good!  

You might be prophesising in hope. How do you know you are right? Have you heard of information volatility? If not do some research on it. I will be happy if it does reach $4.00, but I won't be sad if it doesn't. We'll just have to see.

I posted that today just to inform anyone who may have been interested. It wasn't the catalyst for ramping.

Regards


----------



## Investor (31 May 2005)

*Re: ZINIFEX..ZFX*



			
				Investor said:
			
		

> ..... Book keeping costs, transaction costs (though relatively small) and CGT are factors to consider ...




tech/a,

A bit more analysis of CGT:

Scenario 1:

30,000 shares of ZFX if sold at say $3.30 in Feb 05 (with average purchase price $1.60 in 2004) = NPBT $51K. NPAT (less than a year holding) = $25.5K (roughly).

Scenario 2:

30,000 shares if sold at $2.95 (today) after holding for over a year = NPBT $40.5K. NPAT is $30.37K roughly.

Did the figures on the "back of an envelope". Did not check for accuracy. Rough estimates will do.

Hence, I am still in front, on a NPAT basis (which is more critical than NPBT).


----------



## tech/a (31 May 2005)

*Re: ZINIFEX..ZFX*

Quite rightly so.
Well worth investigating if you havent long to make up 12 mths holding.


----------



## Investor (31 May 2005)

*Re: ZINIFEX..ZFX*



			
				Investor said:
			
		

> ..... Between Feb. 05 and now, some occurrence has caused ZFX to be reluctant to proceed with the buyback in any meaningful way.
> 
> ZFX has spent a mere $13.6 million of the $70 million. *With the passing of each trading day, ZFX has been sending a covert message to the market that it expects the SP to fall*.
> 
> ...




ZFX did not buy any shares last Friday and yesterday.

I decided to take heed of this "message" from ZFX this morning and sold 10,000 shares at $2.95 as part of my risk management. There is no way that I can analyse ZFX's SP better than ZFX. Glad I caught the intraday top price before the expected selling started with the release of latest BOP figures.

Will be interesting to see whether ZFX bought any shares today.


----------



## Warren Buffet II (1 June 2005)

*Re: ZINIFEX..ZFX*



			
				Investor said:
			
		

> ZFX did not buy any shares last Friday and yesterday.
> 
> I decided to take heed of this "message" from ZFX this morning and sold 10,000 shares at $2.95 as part of my risk management. There is no way that I can analyse ZFX's SP better than ZFX. Glad I caught the intraday top price before the expected selling started with the release of latest BOP figures.
> 
> Will be interesting to see whether ZFX bought any shares today.




Investor,

Looks like Mr Market knocked your risk management fragile side 

WBII


----------



## Investor (1 June 2005)

*Re: ZINIFEX..ZFX*

Hmmm .....from the article below, from the internet; it looks like supply of zinc is increasing (yet another indication in the past few weeks). Other things being equal, increase in supply will bring the zinc price down.

Zinc price fell from USD 1,650 a tonne in 1997 to less than USD 900 a tonne in mid 2001 - Pasminco was breaking even at USD 1,000 a tonne. 

Pasminco's share price went from $2.70 in 1997 to 5 cents on 19/9/01 (the day it went into voluntary administration) when the banks would not extend the loans.

Apart from low zinc price impacting on Pasminco, it was highly geared; had made a hostile takeover of Savage Resources without adequate due diligence and found a poison pill in the hedge book and it also got its own hedging strategy badly wrong. (reference source: 10 Best and 10 Worst Decisions of Australian CEOs, a book written by Robert Gottliebsen). 

I had posted the following on 22/4/05 in this thread:

" ...... there is caution amongst both analysts and producers going forward, given the volatile price history of the metal. Last December, a Macquarie research report noted that, despite an optimistic price outlook, zinc is a “perennial dasher of hopes” and that “years of underperformance leave us cautious of getting too bullish at current levels.” At a meeting of the American Zinc Association in early March, *Greig Gailey, CEO of Australian zinc producer Zinifex, owner of the Century mine in Queensland, the world’s second largest zinc producer, warned that zinc’s current bull market could be “destroyed by overinvestment in new capacity” on the part of miners and refiners*. For his part, Gailey said that he sees high zinc prices sticking for three to five years. 

The same conference heard similar warnings from a CRU analyst, who warned, “The low prices seen in 2000 closed many mines or put them on a care-and-maintenance basis. These can be taken back on stream.” *CRU, in fact, sees zinc reaching a 240,000 tonne surplus by 2008, at which point it will take “ten years for profit to recover.” One such mothballed project that could have a major impact on zinc prices is the Lennard Shelf mine complex in western Australia. The operation, formerly owned by Western Metals, produced 176,000 tonnes of zinc in the year ended June 30, 2003, just before it was shut down. In other words, Lennard’s output alone would make up the lion’s share of the zinc market’s current deficit. Lennard Shelf has since been bought by Teck Cominco, which reports that the complex’s potential annual capacity is as high as 3.1 million tonnes*.

However, some producers may be getting out of the zinc market, even as prices rise. *Late in March, Anglo-American subsidiary Kumba Resources announced that they are considering moving away from zinc because of the metal’s unstable fundamentals. Kumba’s executive director Richard Wadley told Business Day that despite the “great buoyancy in the zinc market” of late, “historically it has been very volatile*.” The company currently owns an 89.5 percent stake in the Rosh Pinah mine in southern Namibia, which produces 120,000 tons of zinc annually."

That rules Anglo-American out as a potential suitor for a takeover. I have also just read that Brazil's CVRD has domestic problems in Brazil with local interest rates around 20% (inflation at 8%). That rules out CVRD as well. Teck Cominco has already bought that mine in WA. BHP is busy with WMR. Looks like ZFX will probably not be a takeover target after all.


LONDON (AFX) 31May2005 

Vedanta Resources PLC, the London-listed metals and mining company, said it has the completed the expansion project at its zinc facilities in India, raising the plant's capacity *by 170,000 tonnes per annum to around 400,000 tpa.*

The cost of the project is around 15 pct less than the original budget of 425 mln stg, it added.

The project included the construction of a 154-megawatt power plant and the expansion of mine output from 2.3 metric tonnes per annum to 3.75 mtpa. 

Separately, Vedanta said the reserves at the Rampura Agucha mine, which feeds the smelter, *have been increased by 25 pct to 50.1 mln tonnes following a drilling programme*.

The life of the mine has therefore been extended by another 3 years, with potential to expand the reserves through further exploration.


----------



## Warren Buffet II (1 June 2005)

*Re: ZINIFEX..ZFX*



			
				Investor said:
			
		

> ZFX did not buy any shares last Friday and yesterday.
> 
> I decided to take heed of this "message" from ZFX this morning and sold 10,000 shares at $2.95 as part of my risk management. There is no way that I can analyse ZFX's SP better than ZFX. Glad I caught the intraday top price before the expected selling started with the release of latest BOP figures.
> 
> Will be interesting to see whether ZFX bought any shares today.




They did buy more shares yesterday and I believe they did not buy for the last days waiting to the price to go down. Well, it is up today more than 4%.

As Warren Buffet says Mr Market proposes every day and you should decide if that is correct or not.

It has been a bit of funny stuff happening here with people says they are long-term investors and they keep selling when there is a downturn  and also there some other funny people with those "techniques" that only work when the market is going up and then the "technique does not work and they sell everything loosing money. (Someone here said before he has a 100 pages technique  I'd like to see what has happened to it ) (I can't find that person to track the "technique" and if it is selling or has sold)

That is why Warren Buffet has made a lot of money because even there is people out there saying I read WB and I follow his teachings, well they do not do it correctly and in full extent.

WBII


----------



## Investor (1 June 2005)

*Re: ZINIFEX..ZFX*



			
				Warren Buffet II said:
			
		

> Investor,
> 
> Looks like Mr Market knocked your risk management fragile side
> 
> WBII




I was expecting some smart alec remarks from chicken, but then again smart alec remarks from someone who has such a delusion of grandeur that he can call himself "Warren Buffet II" (mispelt surname missing a "t") is hardly surprising.


----------



## Investor (1 June 2005)

*Re: ZINIFEX..ZFX*

And another thing, Warren Buffet II needed to ask this forum how to value shares, in another thread. 

A pretender!


----------



## Joe Blow (1 June 2005)

*Re: ZINIFEX..ZFX*

Come on guys... lets try and keep the threads free of personal jabs. Thats what  private messages and ignore lists are for.

On topic please gents.


----------



## Investor (1 June 2005)

*Re: ZINIFEX..ZFX*

Joe Blow,

I post in this forum for some interaction with people and there are a few that I have a lot of time for:

RichKid - a gentleman.
TJ - enthusiastic in learning.
Smurf - balanced in his discussions.
tech/a - helpful disposition.
DTM - cordial.
markrmau - polite.
Snake Pliskin - personable.
obi1kenobi - a highly educated man.
Joe Blow - a reasonable man.

However, I do not tolerate fools lightly. 

I was going to type one final post in this forum about the latest "high risk" issue with ZFX regarding the Out-of-Court settlement, that probably most people in this forum do not know about (I was waiting for chicken to prompt me) but I have changed my mind. I have no wish to teach people who do not want to learn.

I did state in this thread that ZFX was not a long term holding for me, merely a SP mispricing play that I can, and have, made a good profit from. Nothing more, nothing less. I did not expect to be questioned about what I do with my own money. How absurd!  :swear: 

I bid you all farewell. All the best with your investments. Goodbye


----------



## Joe Blow (1 June 2005)

*Re: ZINIFEX..ZFX*



			
				Investor said:
			
		

> I bid you all farewell. All the best with your investments. Goodbye




Investor, I for one am going to be very sorry to see you go and I hope you will reconsider. I'm sure I am not the only one that feels this way.   

Your posts have been interesting, educational, very informed and I for one will misss them a great deal. You have brought a lot to this forum in the relatively brief time you have been a member.

Forums can be rough places at times. I have posted on many of them over the years and I can say with confidence that very few are as civilised as ASF. I try my best to maintain a high standard here, largely because there are so many forums with low standards and I wanted ASF to stand out from the rest.

I have only a couple of tips to offer (to everyone, not just to you) to make your time here more enjoyable:

1) Put people who annoy you on your ignore list. The posts of people who have been put on your ignore list will not be visible to you. You can find this option in your UserCP.

2) Report any offensive posts immediately to me and I will take appropriate action. I value the quality of this forum a great deal and it is my intention to maintain a high standard here. I will not tolerate abuse or gratuitous personal attacks.

As I have said, I hope you will reconsider. But if not, I wish you all the best with everything... and thanks for all the great posts.


----------



## Battman64 (1 June 2005)

*Re: ZINIFEX..ZFX*

Nice post Joe,

As a new member I would like to say that this forum does seem like a very well run professional place.
I also hope quality people like Investor stay.


----------



## Smurf1976 (1 June 2005)

*Re: ZINIFEX..ZFX*

"Never do anything in haste or in anger".

Please consider. I think there has been a genuine misunderstanding here.


----------



## Warren Buffet II (1 June 2005)

*Re: ZINIFEX..ZFX*



			
				Investor said:
			
		

> I was expecting some smart alec remarks from chicken, but then again smart alec remarks from someone who has such a delusion of grandeur that he can call himself "Warren Buffet II" (mispelt surname missing a "t") is hardly surprising.




Hi Investor,

My apologies if I hurt your feelings with my post. I really enjoy your posts and they are always very interesting and informative. You have been posting so much about this company and its pros and cons that I do not understand why you sold it yesterday (Risk management??) and today show it. Anyway, as you said it is none business what you do with your money, so don't worry about that too much.

There are very smart people out there with great ideas as you but they contradict what they say with what they do. I didn't want to cause this trouble and please keep posting. 

Hopefully you get this message.

Regards,

WBII


----------



## Warren Buffet II (1 June 2005)

*Re: ZINIFEX..ZFX*



			
				Investor said:
			
		

> I was going to type one final post in this forum about the latest "high risk" issue with ZFX regarding the Out-of-Court settlement, that probably most people in this forum do not know about (I was waiting for chicken to prompt me) but I have changed my mind. I have no wish to teach people who do not want to learn.





Just in case Investor don't come back 

Asbestos case settled
From:   
A PORT Pirie man has reached an out-of-court settlement with his former employer after becoming ill from working with asbestos.

The 77-year-old took action in the Victorian Supreme Court against Zinifex - formerly Broken Hill Associated Smelters Pty Ltd - after he was diagnosed with mesothelioma in November.

The man's lawyer, Jane McDermott, yesterday confirmed a confidential settlement had been reached last month. 

She said her client worked for BHAS between 1953 and 1992, and was exposed to asbestos while insulating the door openings of flues at a smelter. 

"He is clearly distressed by the short life expectancy he now has," she said.


----------



## It's Snake Pliskin (1 June 2005)

*Re: ZINIFEX..ZFX*



			
				Investor said:
			
		

> Joe Blow,
> 
> I post in this forum for some interaction with people and there are a few that I have a lot of time for:
> 
> ...




Hi Investor,

I do hope you reconsider leaving this site.

What have brought here is great stuff! I have learned a lot from you in such a short space of time. 

I for one believe this is a very good forum to chat on.  I would hate to see you leave it.  

Regards


----------



## RichKid (1 June 2005)

*Re: ZINIFEX..ZFX*



			
				Investor said:
			
		

> Joe Blow,
> I post in this forum for some interaction with people and there are a few that I have a lot of time for:
> RichKid - a gentleman.
> TJ - enthusiastic in learning.
> ...




Hi Investor, 
Not sure if you realize how popular you have been but many people are sad to hear of your decision. I hope you will have time to reconsider, in fact it is at times like this that you can take real pleasure in your investing. You have followed your method and are comfortable selling out- needless to say you must justify it to no one else, for you are not responsible to them.  I feel you have more than explained your reasoning and have made a tidy profit in the process but others need not think the same. Perhaps that last point, human nature being what it is, has caused some to rue their misfortune in being stuck with something they bought at much higher prices than you did (possibley due to Chicken, although he can only be credited with attracting you to this site). Perhaps, and this is mere speculation once again, perhaps when you make a decision contrary to that of another (ie to sell rather than to hold and hope) then you may, in that person's view, be taken to have made a personal affront, no matter how silly it may be to think that you should accord with others when making individual decisions. 

Perhaps some of the criticism which was directed at you recently was due to self interest, I suggest it is commonplace, there are many stocks which myself and others have posted on which have attracted trite remarks, yet I don't take it personally, just as someone selling below my buy price in the market will be of little concern to me so will those who disagree with me about my method. I do take your point however about the manner in which people express their opinions- perhaps you can judge each poster on his or her merits and not think of us all as complicit. Some posters come across more aggressively than they intend to, we can all make allowances once people show contrition, I hope. Interestingly, forums are one of the few places where you can actually blow off steam before typing a considered reply as no one can see you, so take a bit of time out if you like to reflect and join us, the markets are always interesting.

Joe and some us here, his little helpers, are just trying to make this work, when we see someone like you join our little gathering we are elated but we can't control the opinions of others, we can only make suggestions. We are all mature people able to defend ourselves and stand our ground. As you have said there are others here who are not in your league, perhaps you should not take their remarks to mean more than they do. If you really want to see a bit of biffo ask Tech or crashy/money tree how it's done! (sorry guys, just proof that we can all live to fight another day- less conflict the better though). 

And finally, if nothing else, a forum helps you to refine your ideas before putting them forward for you are always subject to scrutiny, I for one find this a good experience for it can prevent lethargy. There is also the unexpected material and pleasure of interaction which is difficult to replicate. Your presence here has been welcomed by many and enjoyed by more. The decision is yours in the end. We cannot favour one or the other but only point out that a code of conduct does exist and we can apply it to the limit of our judgement. If we err at times or are slow to react that is our fault entirely, let us hope that fellow members wont be disadvantaged as a result. I know this is a long post but this type of issue is bound to come up again as various opinions collide. As the former American administrations did during the cold war let us try 'constructive engagement', rather than hostility, even in bleak times. Humans have a sad habit of misunderstanding themselves, despite our apparent sophistication. WBII may just be seeking an explanation of something which he does not comprehend adequately. Maybe he has failed to understand the overall import of your posts in this thread, I very much doubt he acted with cold calculation to raise your ire, perhaps WBII holds ZFX and misses your company on the share register. It is also possible that what was intended to be expressed was not what was written, we are at varying levels of communication here and the command and quality of English varies. 

WBII, you have shown some character to apologize without being prompted, perhaps it may be appropriate to review Investor's posts on ZFX to refresh your recollections of his opinions to test the consistency of his actions- if that is your concern. Maybe others here could assist WBII with any queries he may have about investors posts or their correct interpretation.

After all Investor you have done well on ZFX and even if it goes to $10 you have followed your winning formula, why let a disagreeable remark spoil the fun!


----------



## tech/a (2 June 2005)

*Re: ZINIFEX..ZFX*

*Investor*

I know exactly where your coming from happened here and on the other forum I visit (when its up and running) to myself.

I value your input as does many here.
The other rubbish is hard to ignore----with different personalities jostling for respectability!---its the same in all walks of life---amongst friend---down the pub--where ever people gather over extended lengths of time.

*The cream always floats to the top no matter how hard the jar is shaken.*


----------



## chicken (2 June 2005)

*Re: ZINIFEX..ZFX*



			
				Investor said:
			
		

> Joe Blow,
> 
> I post in this forum for some interaction with people and there are a few that I have a lot of time for:
> 
> ...



Now....You are a pretty smart fellow but...why the hell should I promt you with a minor  settlement the company had...which was NOT ANNOUNCED to the market right and as such must HAVE BEEN NOT IMPORTANT to announce if every company annouces their dirty linen..where  or when would we get on to do business...you seem to be bend in telling us how clever you are maybe you are ,and your input is well appreciated...but dont make us a fool and you enjoyed posting here and we enjoyed reading what you have to say but the way you sound well what can I say but every bloke has a different stroke and you seem to have a short fuse take people as they come maybe all the money you made has given you a false sense of supperioity...so get of that high horse and develop some sense of fun because life is to short and you cant take your money with you when you croak...but we still like to see some of your posts...as far as the out of court settlement...I can tell you about a lot of companies who hads these problems but as I said before if it was not announced by the market one has to be careful as the company is in the position to sue for defamation...so that is why I said...ITS NOT IMPORTANT TO KNOW....I see BARCLAYS increased their shareholding....now there is a good sign...by the way what you do with your money...I dont give a hoot....got it


----------



## chicken (2 June 2005)

*Re: ZINIFEX..ZFX*



			
				Warren Buffet II said:
			
		

> Just in case Investor don't come back
> 
> Asbestos case settled
> From:
> ...



I said it was a minor problem if every company posted their settlements and accidents WHEN WOULD WE GET ON WITH RUNNING OF THE BUSINESS...big deal this......


----------



## chicken (2 June 2005)

*Re: ZINIFEX..ZFX*



			
				tech/a said:
			
		

> Chicken your trading hope not price action.
> 
> 80% of predictions by "experts" fail that I see.
> You buying another $20000 worth doesnt make it more bullish either.
> Why mention that??



Tech/a....now what is happening with your prediction...we have broken the trend line right...Investor has also lost because he thought wrong so where do we go from here..I say higher because what Investor posted is old hat read it and discarded it...reason as Maquarie said this stock is a BUY up to $4..so there are the optimists and the passimists..and as far as supply..well stocks are still dropping and supply ..we can all say one thing and mean something different I say this company is going to grow quickly as they are ungeared and I would say they are looking at a couple of companies to take over as they have got a bag full of $$$..as far as the buyback they got all year and there is no rush as it would drive the stock higher quickly..look at the share holding BARCLAYS got..that speaks for itself as they have people who know more than any one on this board...they are in fact buying more..so you tell me what you think..I BELIEF ITS HIGHER...ALSO www.kitcometals.com   will give you some answers re supply I see the Chinese are still wanting more supplies...if they were not in the equasion..then INVESTOR would have been right..but as it happens its not so...


----------



## tech/a (2 June 2005)

*Re: ZINIFEX..ZFX*

Yup.

Broken trend line.
Has now a potential Island reversal setup.
Long way to $4 chicken.

I havent made any predictions thats your rhelm!
There was a rising wedge reversaj pattern but that failed.
Dont think this is ging to do much but range for a while.
Ill be back in 2 weeks to either see that its ranging or see chicken
on his golden egg or a skun chook if it takes out the low!


----------



## chicken (2 June 2005)

*Re: ZINIFEX..ZFX*



			
				tech/a said:
			
		

> Yup.
> 
> Broken trend line.
> Has now a potential Island reversal setup.
> ...



Tecch/a...there are 46 million reasons you are wrong..ask BARCLAYS...they have a reason for increasing their shareholding..right...I said it broke the trendline....UP OVER ABOVE ...your graph you posted...so we are above your and INVESTORS prediction...right.. so BARCLAYS holding cost just on $3 a share...so you dont want to go out on a limb to predict the share price fair enough after all this chicken knows...that it may have a small brain but...it works wonders....After all I have been right for a fair time....What do you think of one of our directors on the SBM board.....does this give you a clue what might be in the offering...after all 400,000 onz of Gold ,could become intresting...you never know what will happen in this crazy market...have a look at map....another share I have...and see what the brokers say or advisers......say.....June might be steady and some TAX selling but overall this year should be profitable...bar if we have a  big war...I feel no one wants one....and its unlikely to happen....with intrest rates on hold....and all these BILLIONS $$$$$ which is sitting on the sideline...the market will be an attractive place to invest...


----------



## It's Snake Pliskin (2 June 2005)

*Re: ZINIFEX..ZFX*

Hi Chicken,

I sold my holding in ZFX today!

I am happy with my decision according to plan


----------



## RichKid (2 June 2005)

*Re: ZINIFEX..ZFX*

Chart, dropping volume, lower highs, doji star. Lower open tomorrow will seal it imo.


----------



## tech/a (2 June 2005)

*Re: ZINIFEX..ZFX*

I could be wrong but I think Tina will have done well.

Rich I agree this could be an Island reversal a gap down open will confirm.
Could be a last blow out of buyers.
Plenty sold as price could not overtake the open.

Chicken may get his $4 but he will be a full sized plump hen by then---rooster maybe!

I really think this will range a while longer.


----------



## RichKid (2 June 2005)

*Re: ZINIFEX..ZFX*



			
				tech/a said:
			
		

> I could be wrong but I think Tina will have done well.
> 
> Rich I agree this could be an Island reversal a gap down open will confirm.
> Could be a last blow out of buyers.
> ...




Now where were those puts...maybe a thread on shorting strategies for ZFX?? Sorry chicken, just teasing. But might happen if I find some good prices. Agree about Investor and Tina selling at the right time. Even if it goes up it's highly unlikely atm.


----------



## chicken (3 June 2005)

*Re: ZINIFEX..ZFX*

Zinc prises have risen again overnight to US$0.5954....from US$0.5642....stocks have also fallen again overnight by 725 tonnes....and this seems to happen everyday....check it yourself  www.kitcometals.com  if you are invested in mining stock you get all the information there...we could possible go higher today as we have 2 buyers who could drive this stock higher on the sideline..there are a few people shorting but they could get burned today.....see what Mcquarie said...buy up to $4......


----------



## tech/a (3 June 2005)

*Re: ZINIFEX..ZFX*

Chicken at this rate youll be a Rooster before you know it!


----------



## chicken (3 June 2005)

*Re: ZINIFEX..ZFX*

Yeah whatever you say....You shorters will get burned...as far as the price of the stock goes it will be dictated by BARCLAYS,ZINIFEX, and the other buyers...as prices are rising...you may find I will be right....which of course will ennoy many people but its a game believe it price is on the rise....


----------



## tech/a (3 June 2005)

*Re: ZINIFEX..ZFX*

Not shorting or taking ANY position just passing a technical abservation.
Have no emotion connected to this stock what so ever.

Anyway Im off see everyone in a few weeks.

Best of luck Chicken I really hope you get your $4.
But will you take it if it gets there----Stay tuned.


----------



## chicken (3 June 2005)

*Re: ZINIFEX..ZFX*

Tech/a...it opened higher....well what do you know..but as far as the $4...thats what Macquarie stated buy to $4....I am just repeating what the EXPERTS say....did you look at SBM...


----------



## Warren Buffet II (3 June 2005)

*Re: ZINIFEX..ZFX*



			
				RichKid said:
			
		

> Now where were those puts...maybe a thread on shorting strategies for ZFX?? Sorry chicken, just teasing. But might happen if I find some good prices. Agree about Investor and Tina selling at the right time. Even if it goes up it's highly unlikely atm.




Maybe they did sell at the right time but I hate when I sell and the price keep going up   , I call it lost opportunity


----------



## It's Snake Pliskin (3 June 2005)

*Re: ZINIFEX..ZFX*

There are opportunities missed everywhere in life. It's how you deal with it that counts. For my point I made a profit and traded according to plan. 

If the stock continues to go up, good. I don't see it climbing much more though. Volume is low, todays market is slow, and the buyback is an issue that no technical analysis can ignore. If ZFX are not buying, then that needs to be acknowledged and watched carefully.

Just my thoughts.


----------



## Warren Buffet II (3 June 2005)

*Re: ZINIFEX..ZFX*



			
				Snake Pliskin said:
			
		

> There are opportunities missed everywhere in life. It's how you deal with it that counts. For my point I made a profit and traded according to plan.
> 
> If the stock continues to go up, good. I don't see it climbing much more though. Volume is low, todays market is slow, and the buyback is an issue that no technical analysis can ignore. If ZFX are not buying, then that needs to be acknowledged and watched carefully.
> 
> Just my thoughts.




Hi Snake Pliskin,

That is correct and if you have a plan you should stick to it. I think there are some incorrect points here:

1) Volume is not low today and was not low yesterday.
2) Buyback is a plan for 12 months and they can make errors as well, I believe they did when they did not buy more shares @$2.63 - $2.80. I believe any share they buy above $3 is going to confirm it.
3) I do not believe in Tech analysis much and I do not believe in Chart either. They can show you some stuff but most of the time is incorrect (It is my own opinion). People have been charting and tech analysing this share as a single entity without taking into account the whole market. If you compare BHP, All Ords and ZFX behaviour in the last 2 months they did exactly the same.

I do not know anything, these are just my thoughts 

WBII


----------



## It's Snake Pliskin (3 June 2005)

*Re: ZINIFEX..ZFX*



			
				Warren Buffet II said:
			
		

> Hi Snake Pliskin,
> 
> That is correct and if you have a plan you should stick to it. I think there are some incorrect points here:
> 
> ...




Mr Buffett,

Thanks for your insight.

I personally believe the company knows more about itself than any of us will ever do. For that reason I view the share buyback as an important indicator for any future buying of this stock. Volumes may not be historically low , but they are far from the top.

Lets watch it and see what ZFX does.


----------



## Warren Buffet II (3 June 2005)

*Re: ZINIFEX..ZFX*



			
				Snake Pliskin said:
			
		

> Mr Buffett,
> 
> Thanks for your insight.
> 
> ...




Hi Snake Pliskin,

I completely agree with you about the company knowing about itself more than anyone else, the point here is that none knows about the market behaviour and how the shares will behave at less they are hidding something   .

My point is that they started the buy-back from $3.20 or something (I do not remember) and when they saw that the price started to go down, they held and stopped buying waiting for a "better" price. Then the $2.63-share price day came and they bought $2 millions and waited the following days for another drop, but what happens surprised everyone, the price went up and hasn't stopped yet.

And that's what I said before if they buy any share above $3 that will confirm this miscalculation I should call it. Why? because they are going to pay a 13% premium.

WBII


----------



## chicken (3 June 2005)

*Re: ZINIFEX..ZFX*

THE CHICKEN IS RIGHT after all, it broke through the resistance ,and has not looked back....a blind man could have seen what I saw in the graph...there was something positive on TV about ZINIFEX but I missed it.....something about Zinifex and BHP...blast I missed it....but anyway Warren you are quite right ,I call it missed opprtunity..the broker who is buying the shares back for Zinifex...sits on his hands...they will have to pay a lot more for their BUYBACK..I said it  before and no one believed me...anyway there is a lot of intrest in this stock..look at BARCLAYS holding they are buying more....I WONDER WHY...but I am sure they know more than you  and I...I just follow them.....like a chicken....LOLOLOLOLOLOLO


----------



## Warren Buffet II (3 June 2005)

*Re: ZINIFEX..ZFX*



			
				chicken said:
			
		

> THE CHICKEN IS RIGHT after all, it broke through the resistance ,and has not looked back....a blind man could have seen what I saw in the graph...there was something positive on TV about ZINIFEX but I missed it.....something about Zinifex and BHP...blast I missed it....but anyway Warren you are quite right ,I call it missed opprtunity..the broker who is buying the shares back for Zinifex...sits on his hands...they will have to pay a lot more for their BUYBACK..I said it  before and no one believed me...anyway there is a lot of intrest in this stock..look at BARCLAYS holding they are buying more....I WONDER WHY...but I am sure they know more than you  and I...I just follow them.....like a chicken....LOLOLOLOLOLOLO




Hi Chicken,

This is what I think:

1) About BARCLAYS: they have been increasing its Zinifex ownership amazingly. They are close to 10% now (They have been buying below $3, I would like to see them buying above $3).

2) BHP, WMR, ZFX: BHP is going to get control of WMR today and will pay immediately $4.6 billions to WMR shareholders (50% of WMR or maybe more), that money is going back to the sharemarket next week and I believe WMR shareholders are going to continue with the strategy of buying possible take overs companies. My guess is ZFX.

So, BARCLAYS knows that. This is all speculation but I can tell you I read a lot and that is my prediction.

As I said before, I do not know anything, they are just my thoughts

Read: WMR as WMC 

WBII


----------



## chicken (3 June 2005)

*Re: ZINIFEX..ZFX*



			
				Warren Buffet II said:
			
		

> Hi Chicken,
> 
> This is what I think:
> 
> ...



I think you hit the nail right on the head...as I said there were some news on TV which I only heared the end of it it was something along your prediction...I think a lot of money will go into Zinifex...and I would not be supprised iNVESTOR KNEW SOMETHING...JUST MY THOUGHTS.....ALL WALLS AND MIRROR STUFF...as if I cared he sold his lousy 10k shares...but this is a poker game and the best player wins...what do you say about one of the directors joining the SBM board...after all there are 7.5 million oze. of gold 4 smelters mines etc,etc...they will pick them up cheap.....as it stands they are capitalized in their shares only 55million $....they could pick them up for say 75million and get 14k landbank etc....intresting times ahead.....


----------



## It's Snake Pliskin (3 June 2005)

*Re: ZINIFEX..ZFX*

Chicken,

Are you going to buy Santa Barbara stocks?


----------



## chicken (4 June 2005)

*Re: ZINIFEX..ZFX*



			
				Snake Pliskin said:
			
		

> Chicken,
> 
> Are you going to buy Santa Barbara stocks?



In fact I have 200k shares at 9.5cents......


----------



## It's Snake Pliskin (4 June 2005)

*Re: ZINIFEX..ZFX*



			
				chicken said:
			
		

> In fact I have 200k shares at 9.5cents......




That's very good!


----------



## johnno261 (5 June 2005)

*Re: ZINIFEX..ZFX*

This has not been mentioned, but does anyone think TZN is a poss. takeover stock by Zinifex? Thoughts??????


----------



## chicken (6 June 2005)

*Re: ZINIFEX..ZFX*

Maybe...depending what their jointventure agreement says....if they have no clause where it says the company cannot buy shares there is every possibility....it makes sense


----------



## chicken (7 June 2005)

*Re: ZINIFEX..ZFX*

There has been a little shortselling of this stock...question....the shortsellers are making a mistake..reason the WMC money is going to hit the market and brokers are saying that some of these millions of $$$ are going to be invested in ZINIFEX...if thats the case than I can see a further upside of this stock.....


----------



## Warren Buffet II (7 June 2005)

*Re: ZINIFEX..ZFX*



			
				chicken said:
			
		

> There has been a little shortselling of this stock...question....the shortsellers are making a mistake..reason the WMC money is going to hit the market and brokers are saying that some of these millions of $$$ are going to be invested in ZINIFEX...if thats the case than I can see a further upside of this stock.....




I agree with you Chicken.

Look, BHP will pay next week 6.9 billions for the 75% they have in WMC, analysts predict that 40% will go overseas because of hedge funds and a lot of that money will be reinvested in BHP but say that 1% is invested in ZFX that means 69 millions, that is well above average daily volume. 

So, if that happens ZFX will go up without any question.

WBII


----------



## Warren Buffet II (8 June 2005)

*Re: ZINIFEX..ZFX*



			
				Snake Pliskin said:
			
		

> the buyback is an issue that no technical analysis can ignore. If ZFX are not buying, then that needs to be acknowledged and watched carefully.




ZFX started buying back again yesterday, paying a 15% premium @3.13.

I am wordering if they did not buy before (last 8 days) because the ASX allowed price was below ZFX price??

Interesting

WBII


----------



## It's Snake Pliskin (8 June 2005)

*Re: ZINIFEX..ZFX*



			
				Warren Buffet II said:
			
		

> ZFX started buying back again yesterday, paying a 15% premium @3.13.
> 
> I am wordering if they did not buy before (last 8 days) because the ASX allowed price was below ZFX price??
> 
> ...





The volume was low though! Nothing to confirm or deny future price action with. If they buy over the next few days one could hypothesize the stock's intended price.


----------



## chicken (8 June 2005)

*Re: ZINIFEX..ZFX*

As soon as the price hits $3...its a BIG buy...sell; out at $3.25 or there abouts...and do it again...marvelous stock this....but could rise quickly...depending when the money is available to people who sold out of WMC......


----------



## chicken (8 June 2005)

*Re: ZINIFEX..ZFX*

Important....Zinifex will be now in the ASX SP 100 on the 17th JUNE this could and would mean that more Injstitution will buy shares in this company...WMC will be removed.......Shares will rise as this had been announced after hours...anny comments..Warren


----------



## raider (8 June 2005)

*Re: ZINIFEX..ZFX*

This was mention in the financial review this morning so probably will not
have a great effect on price - but do agree a good stock to buy below
$2.90 - sell at $3.10


----------



## chicken (8 June 2005)

*Re: ZINIFEX..ZFX*



			
				raider said:
			
		

> This was mention in the financial review this morning so probably will not
> have a great effect on price - but do agree a good stock to buy below
> $2.90 - sell at $3.10



THE PRICE YOU QUOTED...well the price will very likely not go down to $2.90 reason I just quoted the inclusion of this stock in the SP ASX 100 Institution will be into this now boots and all...so $3 is more the price, if you are lucky....someone has been trying to bring it down but now we will see an increase in price as money will be freely available for this stock...SPASX 100....So  it will be a completly different ball game and I now understand why BARCLAYS added to their holdings...now nearly 10%.....and Macquarie saying a buy to $4.....it means they had an idea that this stock may be included in the SPASX100  as many fund managers are ONLY buying in that group....its good news for SHAREHOLDERS and of course the share price will be higher...I just wonder if INVESTOR knew all along what was going to happen....I THINK HE DID and used Walls and mirrors to confuse us...NOT me as I knew more than I told him on the board....after all Zinifex is a hugh undertaking....being 2nd largest in the world


----------



## raider (8 June 2005)

*Re: ZINIFEX..ZFX*

In the last 3 months have brought Zinifex 3 times below $2.90 and have sold at $3.10 - will do so again within the next month because this stock and others ( eg MIG ) are manipulated by people with very large resources.


----------



## chicken (8 June 2005)

*Re: ZINIFEX..ZFX*



			
				raider said:
			
		

> In the last 3 months have brought Zinifex 3 times below $2.90 and have sold at $3.10 - will do so again within the next month because this stock and others ( eg MIG ) are manipulated by people with very large resources.



Well you still did not read what I said...ITS NOW A DIFFERENT BALL GAME...LARGE INSTITUTION ARE NOW IN THE MARKET FOR THIS STOCK..read what I said...yes you and I and many others have taken advantige of this situation but it will be so much harder now to do the same...we may see the price comeback to under $3...but as I said before I doubt this now because the Institutions have NOW THE GREEN LIGHT to buy this stock....and I can only see them rise higher as there will be a scramble for this stock.....from memory only 65million shares are freely available the rest is held very tightly...not many shares for us to trade...that is out of 500million shares...


----------



## raider (8 June 2005)

*Re: ZINIFEX..ZFX*

Then please explain to me why ZFX went down 11 cents today but most
people knew today that it was going to be included in the ASX 100 and certainly all institutions knew this more than likely sometime ago - or are
they just stupid and wait a few days to give the little investor a chance
to buy before they jump in and drive the price up to the magic $4.00 mark.


----------



## It's Snake Pliskin (8 June 2005)

*Re: ZINIFEX..ZFX*



			
				raider said:
			
		

> Then please explain to me why ZFX went down 11 cents today but most
> people knew today that it was going to be included in the ASX 100 and certainly all institutions knew this more than likely sometime ago - or are
> they just stupid and wait a few days to give the little investor a chance
> to buy before they jump in and drive the price up to the magic $4.00 mark.




I think it would be highly likely that most informed and educated people would be of your same opinion. Chicken is passionately positive on this stock, and fails to recoqnise the opinions of those who differ. For that reason I wouldn't take too much notice of what has been stated.

Ultimately we'll see what happens with this stock.


----------



## Warren Buffet II (9 June 2005)

*Re: ZINIFEX..ZFX*



			
				chicken said:
			
		

> Important....Zinifex will be now in the ASX SP 100 on the 17th JUNE this could and would mean that more Injstitution will buy shares in this company...WMC will be removed.......Shares will rise as this had been announced after hours...anny comments..Warren




Hi Chicken,

ZFX will probably rise because of 2 reasons:

1) ZFX replacing WMR
2) NWS being withdraw from the index.

Normally, pure index funds will simply buy more of what's left in proportion to their index weighting, this will happens close to the 17 June and I expect a raise by that time.

Additionally, next week is going to be very interesting with all the BHP money, I am guessing a big jump in all indexes including ZFX. I also read an article today talking about all this takeover money stuff and they predict a $25 billion will be reinvested over the next few weeks in the sharemarket. (BHP-WMR, Foster-Southcorp, Woolies-Foodland, San Miguel-NatFoods.

WBII


----------



## It's Snake Pliskin (10 June 2005)

*Re: ZINIFEX..ZFX*

In your opinion would it be prudent to buy ZFX this week?


----------



## chicken (10 June 2005)

*Re: ZINIFEX..ZFX*



			
				Snake Pliskin said:
			
		

> In your opinion would it be prudent to buy ZFX this week?



You are a funny person....Your buy and sell is your decision....we cannot advise you when to buy...ring your broker or do your research..read what was said on the board....As we are NOT REGISTERED TO ADVISE YOU....


----------



## It's Snake Pliskin (10 June 2005)

*Re: ZINIFEX..ZFX*



			
				chicken said:
			
		

> You are a funny person....Your buy and sell is your decision....we cannot advise you when to buy...ring your broker or do your research..read what was said on the board....As we are NOT REGISTERED TO ADVISE YOU....




I wasn't after a response from you Chicken. I was after a response from a courteous poster. I'm not looking for advice, just interested in what people have been saying. Phrasing one question will and does scare people away, I gues that is a way of determining the quality of the information being received.  

I'm sorry for upsetting you Chicken, I really am.


----------



## chicken (10 June 2005)

*Re: ZINIFEX..ZFX*



			
				Snake Pliskin said:
			
		

> I wasn't after a response from you Chicken. I was after a response from a courteous poster. I'm not looking for advice, just interested in what people have been saying. Phrasing one question will and does scare people away, I gues that is a way of determining the quality of the information being received.
> 
> I'm sorry for upsetting you Chicken, I really am.



You dont upset me.....The shareprice is rising as I predicted it..to go below $3...will not happen as next week it will happen what Warren posted as far as if it was prudent to invest at this stage...what did Maquarie say..firstly they placed Zinifex on Neutral from buy..but that could be manipulated to bring the price down for the brokers to buy...so I am buying at present but that is what I am doing after selling at $3.22 the other day...so your trading is up to you also Maquarie said its a buy to $4...and they quoted the stock is worth on todays Zinc spot prices $4.98 so there you have it...but buying must be your own decision


----------



## raider (10 June 2005)

*Re: ZINIFEX..ZFX*

To Snake Pliskin I can't give you any advice to buy or sell I can just
advise you to be careful when listening to people ramping about certain shares,it probably means that they themselves have brought these shares at a much higher price and now need for the price to go back up or face a heavy
loss which can make them very passionate.
eg Krisbarry and LVL


----------



## Warren Buffet II (10 June 2005)

*Re: ZINIFEX..ZFX*



			
				Snake Pliskin said:
			
		

> In your opinion would it be prudent to buy ZFX this week?




I just think that buying above $3 is risky at this stage. I also think this stock can go up to around $3.20-3.30 again.


----------



## chicken (11 June 2005)

*Re: ZINIFEX..ZFX*

Sorry..it was UBS said from buy to neutral...now Warren...they also said 8 brokers are Neutral whereby 5 brokers have a positive BUY on this stock...what it means the Brokers are not sure a buy or a neutral....it also said that valuation at present of $3.10....could become $4.98 at present spot prices.....so who said its not a buy above $3....the market will show next week as soon as we are included in the ASX100 what this price will be you even agreed with me...have you not stated in your post...$25 billion will hit the market...and replacing WMC...I feel is great for ZINIFEX...and also for anny shareholder....and Barclay adding more...I wonder why...I am sure the millions they invested is for a good reason.......


----------



## Warren Buffet II (12 June 2005)

*Re: ZINIFEX..ZFX*



			
				chicken said:
			
		

> Sorry..it was UBS said from buy to neutral...now Warren...they also said 8 brokers are Neutral whereby 5 brokers have a positive BUY on this stock...what it means the Brokers are not sure a buy or a neutral....it also said that valuation at present of $3.10....could become $4.98 at present spot prices.....so who said its not a buy above $3....the market will show next week as soon as we are included in the ASX100 what this price will be you even agreed with me...have you not stated in your post...$25 billion will hit the market...and replacing WMC...I feel is great for ZINIFEX...and also for anny shareholder....and Barclay adding more...I wonder why...I am sure the millions they invested is for a good reason.......




Hi Chicken,

I'll rephrase my comment, I should say it is risky to buy above $3 but I also think it is a buy at the moment for those who understand the risk.

I just checked the website you posted before www.kitcometals.com and found this interesting article:

http://www.platts.com/Metals/News/6849162.xml?p=Metals/News&S=n

This adds more fuel to this stock for the coming weeks.

WBII


----------



## Warren Buffet II (13 June 2005)

*Re: ZINIFEX..ZFX*

Hi All,

Another interesting article from ww.kitcometals.com about zinc:



> The news was largely good for zinc investors. The world’s top miner of the metal, Teck Cominco, said that it has no plans to open new mines soon. Rather, the company will wait until global zinc stocks drop below 200,000 before looking at new production. London inventories stood at 519,725 tons yesterday. "We're committed to doing whatever we can to make sure the inventories on the LME in zinc continue to decline," CEO Donald Lindsay told Reuters.
> 
> The industry’s third-largest zinc producer, Falconbridge, agrees with TC’s assessment. The company said that it has mothballed three zinc projects, with current prices being too low to warrant increased supply. Zinc initially fell a half cent yesterday to near $0.5860/lb, before recovering to a current $0.5915/lb.




Zinifex is already making profit above estimates with current prices, what is going to happen if the price goes up?

WBII


----------



## It's Snake Pliskin (17 June 2005)

*Re: ZINIFEX..ZFX*

The price is going up but ZFX appears not to be buying. What do they see that we may not?


----------



## chicken (17 June 2005)

*Re: ZINIFEX..ZFX*



			
				Snake Pliskin said:
			
		

> The price is going up but ZFX appears not to be buying. What do they see that we may not?



Its not what they see but what you dont see I said this stock will rise but you seem to think there is a reason why the company is not buying...I said its for NO REASON..they buy when someone wants to offload stock..at present its a buy to $4....better believe it...make your research because its up to you if you buy or selll......I say its a buy...as from today in the ASX 100


----------



## chicken (17 June 2005)

*Re: ZINIFEX..ZFX*

Check www.kitcometals.com   Intresting article...GRANDICH LETTER SPECIAL ALERT>>>>>Intresting read...if you are at all invested in metals....SBM should have an anoucement...if it is good we should see our share price double to 18cents....


----------



## Warren Buffet II (17 June 2005)

*Re: ZINIFEX..ZFX*



			
				Snake Pliskin said:
			
		

> The price is going up but ZFX appears not to be buying. What do they see that we may not?




I think they are using that strategy to send the price down but looks it is not working anymore. One thing is what they would like the market to do and another is what the market does.

WBII


----------



## chicken (20 June 2005)

*Re: ZINIFEX..ZFX*



			
				Warren Buffet II said:
			
		

> I think they are using that strategy to send the price down but looks it is not working anymore. One thing is what they would like the market to do and another is what the market does.
> 
> WBII



Warren I see zinifex are standing in the market and are buying again..Broker  is sitting on his hands....should start rising faster now as in ASX100.....will get intresting....from now on as far as going back under $3   I WISH,I WISH  I think we can wish but should go closer to $4 that is what Macquarie said...buy up to $4....


----------



## chicken (20 June 2005)

*Re: ZINIFEX..ZFX*

See ASX shortsells...Shorts have nearly disappeared a sign the share will rise...this stock will see some action before the 30thJune I expect a good announcement....


----------



## tech/a (20 June 2005)

*Re: ZINIFEX..ZFX*

Actually its a sign that the stock HAS risen.

And they will return when the stock begins to fall again.

A sure sign that the stock is then expected to fall.

You know I sold out at $2.84 ish and have traded many other moves far in excess of the extra 15% possible from ZFX.
Chicken what else are you trading surely not just ZFX---and why no passion with any other trades?


----------



## chicken (20 June 2005)

*Re: ZINIFEX..ZFX*



			
				tech/a said:
			
		

> Actually its a sign that the stock HAS risen.
> 
> And they will return when the stock begins to fall again.
> 
> ...



Tech/a....I hold TLS,SBM...which should rise as soon as news is out stock is starting to be traded....MAP,BPC, and Cue which seems to be rising niecly....as far as ZFX is concerned been in and out many times with a profit everytime...though its a tremendous trading stock...a lot of intrest here,,still cant workout the connection with SBM....one of the directors joined SBM board...SBM took over the gold assets from Sons of Gwalih....at bargain basement price paid  very little for an asset which to replace would cost $250 million anny comments...read comments in Share magazine re SBM MAY issue


----------



## chicken (22 June 2005)

*Re: ZINIFEX..ZFX*

Hope everyone read their announcements today.....


----------



## Joe Blow (23 June 2005)

*Re: ZINIFEX..ZFX*



			
				chicken said:
			
		

> Hope everyone read their announcements today.....




Chicken... two things:

1. If you are informing people about a company announcement please either link to it directly or cut and paste it into your post.

2. This also applies to articles on websites. Don't just link to the website itself, link directly to the article you are referring to. Alternatively, cut and past some or all of it into your post. If you want to start a general thread on a particular website then start it in the General Chat forum.

Thanks,
Joe


----------



## chicken (23 June 2005)

*Re: ZINIFEX..ZFX*



			
				Joe Blow said:
			
		

> Chicken... two things:
> 
> 1. If you are informing people about a company announcement please either link to it directly or cut and paste it into your post.
> 
> ...



OK...got the message re www.minebox.com  had a big article on Zinifex etc...been to busy to type it all up but its all news for posters who are invested in the mining stock of Australia.....thanks again cheers chicken .

http://www.minebox.com/story.asp?articleId=6019


----------



## Joe Blow (23 June 2005)

*Re: ZINIFEX..ZFX*



			
				chicken said:
			
		

> OK...got the message re www.minebox.com  had a big article on Zinifex etc...been to busy to type it all up but its all news for posters who are invested in the mining stock of Australia.....thanks again cheers chicken .
> 
> http://www.minebox.com/story.asp?articleId=6019




Chicken, do you see how the link I inserted into your post leads people directly to the article while your link to the website itself means people have to hunt around  on the site for the information?

In future, please link DIRECTLY to the article you are referring to, okay?


----------



## TheAnalyst (23 June 2005)

*Re: ZINIFEX..ZFX*

maybe the share price p/e ratio is low because the market has factored into the share price the sensitivity the stocks earnings will encounter from any drop in demand or price to its minerals...it also is a capital intensive stock....maybe some one could come up and give us a run down on its segment performance towards profit....segement by segement as well as let us know which geographical parts of the world have the greatest effect to revenues...then maybe we calcualte the risks involved


----------



## chicken (24 June 2005)

*Re: ZINIFEX..ZFX*

All these questions are going to be answered....the company is DEBT free money in the bank and starting to expand....do your research as you will find these answers there in the anouncements.....as we are all waiting of the results profits to june should be better than $190 million dollars....that is what Macquarie said plus buy to $4....... and also they are not geared at all so will or has massive money to expand...as far as risks....life is one big risk....


----------



## chicken (8 July 2005)

*Re: ZINIFEX..ZFX*



			
				chicken said:
			
		

> All these questions are going to be answered....the company is DEBT free money in the bank and starting to expand....do your research as you will find these answers there in the anouncements.....as we are all waiting of the results profits to june should be better than $190 million dollars....that is what Macquarie said plus buy to $4....... and also they are not geared at all so will or has massive money to expand...as far as risks....life is one big risk....



Zinc is rising again see www.kitcometals.com   I see the directors are buying more shares...we are all waiting for results but as I said before should be good....


----------



## raider (8 July 2005)

*Re: ZINIFEX..ZFX*

Yes, I agree. Should see some good buying opportunities when the price
drops below $2.80


----------



## chicken (8 July 2005)

*Re: ZINIFEX..ZFX*



			
				raider said:
			
		

> Yes, I agree. Should see some good buying opportunities when the price
> drops below $2.80



Yeah we can all dream last time I picked them up at $2.69c and I thought the sam as you..maybe,perhaps  but I feel its to close for their announcements..you might be right...we will see


----------



## chicken (11 July 2005)

*Re: ZINIFEX..ZFX*



			
				chicken said:
			
		

> Yeah we can all dream last time I picked them up at $2.69c and I thought the sam as you..maybe,perhaps  but I feel its to close for their announcements..you might be right...we will see



Its  going higher today opened at $3...as I said before as soon as we get the news should head higher I feel by year end it will be $4...


----------



## raider (11 July 2005)

*Re: ZINIFEX..ZFX*

But before then we will see it drop below $2.80


----------



## chicken (11 July 2005)

*Re: ZINIFEX..ZFX*



			
				raider said:
			
		

> But before then we will see it drop below $2.80



Maybe....there is 50 billion Dollars looking for stock..ZFX.its manipulated down but will rise quickly.....my target is still $4....by Xmas maybe sooner wait the announcements


----------



## chicken (11 July 2005)

*Re: ZINIFEX..ZFX*

By jofe..bloody shortsellers active again..noticed also in MAP but as there were more buyers could not get the price down....MAP has now over 5 million shortsold...glad I did not go that way...


----------



## dutchie (15 July 2005)

*Re: ZINIFEX..ZFX*

Chicken whats happening? Have not heard from you for a while?

An update on your "tip"/ramp/whatever.

First post 7th Jan. 2005 -  ZFX - $2.36

6 months later (and 506 posts)     - ZFX - $2.98

About a 26% *GAIN* in 6 months !! - not bad.

Better than MUL anyway!!!!


----------



## sails (15 July 2005)

*Re: ZINIFEX..ZFX*

Chicken, 

Just wondering where you find information on how many short sellers there are as you mentioned with ZFX and MAP a couple of posts ago?  I know Yahoo has this info for the US, but have not been able to find a website for Australian shares.  Any info would be much appreciated!

Margaret.


----------



## It's Snake Pliskin (16 July 2005)

*Re: ZINIFEX..ZFX*



			
				sails said:
			
		

> Chicken,
> 
> Just wondering where you find information on how many short sellers there are as you mentioned with ZFX and MAP a couple of posts ago?  I know Yahoo has this info for the US, but have not been able to find a website for Australian shares.  Any info would be much appreciated!
> 
> Margaret.




Thanks for that one Margaret, I have been wondering the same.

Chicken, help is required. :sheep:


----------



## Bloveld (16 July 2005)

*Re: ZINIFEX..ZFX*

http://www.asx.com.au/data/shortsell.txt


----------



## sails (16 July 2005)

*Re: ZINIFEX..ZFX*



			
				Bloveld said:
			
		

> http://www.asx.com.au/data/shortsell.txt




Thanks Bloveld


----------



## chicken (27 July 2005)

*Re: ZINIFEX..ZFX*

Well,...has everyone seen this....TZN which Zinifex is partner with has just discovered a high zone of Copper....looks like copper may become another metal from Zinifex....


----------



## chicken (29 July 2005)

*Re: ZINIFEX..ZFX*

Looks as if everyone wants part of the action.....its back up again....


----------



## chicken (2 August 2005)

*Re: ZINIFEX..ZFX*



			
				chicken said:
			
		

> Looks as if everyone wants part of the action.....its back up again....



Since I stopped posting on this stock ,where I was right ALL ALONG....its just motoring higher....and higher....what a stock annyone who bought good luck to all.....also a Share Magazine find by me....


----------



## DTM (2 August 2005)

*Re: ZINIFEX..ZFX*



			
				chicken said:
			
		

> Since I stopped posting on this stock ,where I was right ALL ALONG....its just motoring higher....and higher....




Maybe thats why its going up!! LOL    

Sorry Chicken, couldn't resist.  Hope its working out well for you.


----------



## chicken (2 August 2005)

*Re: ZINIFEX..ZFX*



			
				DTM said:
			
		

> Maybe thats why its going up!! LOL
> 
> Sorry Chicken, couldn't resist.  Hope its working out well for you.



Just noticed shortsells back in...will come back as the shorts in controll will buy back..what a share.....


----------



## It's Snake Pliskin (2 August 2005)

*Re: ZINIFEX..ZFX*



			
				chicken said:
			
		

> Just noticed shortsells back in...will come back as the shorts in controll will buy back..what a share.....




Maybe buyers have read this:

http://www.aireview.com/index.php?act=view&catid=5&id=2344


----------



## chicken (6 August 2005)

*Re: ZINIFEX..ZFX*



			
				Snake Pliskin said:
			
		

> Maybe buyers have read this:
> 
> http://www.aireview.com/index.php?act=view&catid=5&id=2344



Looks like my $4 will be got after all....been heavy going sometimes as soon as price will come back a few more cents will buy back in...what a find...and the $4 might even be cheap as soon as they pay a divident which should happen in this finicial year.....I knew I should have invested more here....but at present price still low


----------



## raider (6 August 2005)

*Re: ZINIFEX..ZFX*

But don't forget to wait till it drops to below $2.90 like it did last time.


----------



## brerwallabi (6 August 2005)

*Re: ZINIFEX..ZFX*



			
				raider said:
			
		

> But don't forget to wait till it drops to below $2.90 like it did last time.



 This will be very interesting shortly, it could well be @ $2.75 or less if it doesnt turn up with the goods and if it does show up with a good result - as chicken said                 ***$4.00****


----------



## chicken (9 August 2005)

*Re: ZINIFEX..ZFX*



			
				brerwallabi said:
			
		

> This will be very interesting shortly, it could well be @ $2.75 or less if it doesnt turn up with the goods and if it does show up with a good result - as chicken said                 ***$4.00****



If it falls below $2.90....I will buy all I can......


----------



## chicken (9 August 2005)

*Re: ZINIFEX..ZFX*



			
				chicken said:
			
		

> If it falls below $2.90....I will buy all I can......



IT just goes up and up since I stopped posting....well looks my prediction to come true...the beliefers who held  must be very happy now...unbelievable


----------



## chicken (22 August 2005)

*Re: ZINIFEX..ZFX*



			
				chicken said:
			
		

> IT just goes up and up since I stopped posting....well looks my prediction to come true...the beliefers who held  must be very happy now...unbelievable



I wonder how high ZINIFEX will go...$4 just about there....this is the first stop....my prediction were on the button...hope you fellows made money I DID


----------



## chicken (25 August 2005)

*Re: ZINIFEX..ZFX*



			
				chicken said:
			
		

> I wonder how high ZINIFEX will go...$4 just about there....this is the first stop....my prediction were on the button...hope you fellows made money I DID



Well, how is that , ZFX delivered ALL they promised plus more...I can see this stock going past $4....so I better buy back in...its a little ripper...and I always thought so......any comments like to hear them.....At one stage I believed what the traders posted...but I thought maybe I am right....well your or my $4...will easily be got....After all I like to be right sometimes.....


----------



## chicken (2 September 2005)

*Re: ZINIFEX..ZFX*



			
				chicken said:
			
		

> Well, how is that , ZFX delivered ALL they promised plus more...I can see this stock going past $4....so I better buy back in...its a little ripper...and I always thought so......any comments like to hear them.....At one stage I believed what the traders posted...but I thought maybe I am right....well your or my $4...will easily be got....After all I like to be right sometimes.....



Last sale today.............$4.01.............was I not correct..........


----------



## tech/a (2 September 2005)

*Re: ZINIFEX..ZFX*

Well done Chicken.

The benifit of long term holding a winner.
What are your plans from here?


----------



## chicken (3 September 2005)

*Re: ZINIFEX..ZFX*



			
				tech/a said:
			
		

> Well done Chicken.
> 
> The benifit of long term holding a winner.
> What are your plans from here?



At present into another company called St Barbara Mines,,, like the look of them....bought in at 11.5c....to 16.5cents....they bought the gold assets of SWG....if you have time read what was said on the board......As far as Zinifex is concerned they are healthy and will go higher in price..just my observation....also one of the directors of ZFX also on the board of SBM...intresting I thought....might there be a connection ? The market seems to like SBM reuvination and results so far...one of the directors of SBM just added another 300000 shares to his holdings and has now 2.8 million of them I bought 500k and am sitting on them....I feel this one will be a winner also...the market seems to think so as well...check it out.......


----------



## tech/a (3 September 2005)

*Re: ZINIFEX..ZFX*

Oh 

Ive been watching SBM director accumulation is a good thing.
As you bought more than one of the directors perhaps a take over bid is looming?

For a noisy chicken your doing OK nothing like a Golden Egg or 2


----------



## michael_selway (21 October 2005)

*Re: ZINIFEX..ZFX*



			
				Fleeta said:
			
		

> Hmmm.
> 
> Anyway - Zinifex is a dud, I wouldn't touch it with your money, try Sons of Gwalia instead!




hm ZFX is still doing good atm.....still ok to buy u think?


----------



## RichKid (21 October 2005)

*Re: ZINIFEX..ZFX*



			
				michael_selway said:
			
		

> hm ZFX is still doing good atm.....still ok to buy u think?




Michael,
Please read the forum code of conduct (link at foot of page next to paypal logo) and posting guidelines (thread at top of each forum) and please refrain from asking for (or providing) financial advice on these forums as you will need to consult a licenced financial adviser. It's ASIC rules and we don't want to get into trouble.

Thanks!
RichKid
moderator


----------



## It's Snake Pliskin (21 October 2005)

*Re: ZINIFEX..ZFX*



			
				RichKid said:
			
		

> Michael,
> Please read the forum code of conduct (link at foot of page next to paypal logo) and posting guidelines (thread at top of each forum) and please refrain from asking for (or providing) financial advice on these forums as you will need to consult a licenced financial adviser. It's ASIC rules and we don't want to get into trouble.
> 
> Thanks!
> ...





Richkid,

I read this as an opinion and confirmation by asking for opinions. 

It is simply too vague to be construed as financal advice, or a solicitation for advice. If he had disclosed how much capital he was willing to risk and his objectves then that would be a different situation. There is a lot of grey area in what people believe to be advice or opinion. My belief is opinions are vague on detail and intent.

Regards
Snake Pliskin


----------



## RichKid (21 October 2005)

*Re: ZINIFEX..ZFX*



			
				Snake Pliskin said:
			
		

> Richkid,
> 
> I read this as an opinion and confirmation by asking for opinions.
> 
> ...




Different people will construe the statement in different ways, I can only be cautious as there is a real possibility that some may take it as I suggested. This site is not for profit and we don't get any financial benefit out of it so if ASIC clamps down on us we could go down the gurgler very fast as lawyers are expensive, I'm willing to be a bit cautious to be on the correct side of the law. Having said that only a small number of posts actually come up on my radar. I hope you understand.


----------



## Fleeta (22 October 2005)

*Re: Zinifex... ZFX*

Michael,

Thanks for bringing up my quote, I really appreciate it! Doesn't make me look stupid at all!

Regards,

Fleeta


----------



## chicken (28 October 2005)

*Re: Zinifex... ZFX*



			
				Fleeta said:
			
		

> Michael,
> 
> Thanks for bringing up my quote, I really appreciate it! Doesn't make me look stupid at all!
> 
> ...



Well, I am glad you admit that what you posted


----------



## It's Snake Pliskin (28 October 2005)

*Re: Zinifex... ZFX*

What forces are affecting ZFX now?

http://www.aireview.com/index.php?act=view&catid=8&id=2955


----------



## chicken (29 October 2005)

*Re: Zinifex... ZFX*



			
				Snake Pliskin said:
			
		

> What forces are affecting ZFX now?
> 
> http://www.aireview.com/index.php?act=view&catid=8&id=2955



Funny that but some other brokers say the opposite I sold my share as they went over $4....but Maquarie has a target of $5.75....funny that


----------



## It's Snake Pliskin (30 October 2005)

*Re: Zinifex... ZFX*



			
				chicken said:
			
		

> Funny that but some other brokers say the opposite I sold my share as they went over $4....but Maquarie has a target of $5.75....funny that




You do what ever you see fit Chicken. I posted that just for the forum's benefit.


----------



## michael_selway (30 October 2005)

*Re: Zinifex... ZFX*



			
				Snake Pliskin said:
			
		

> You do what ever you see fit Chicken. I posted that just for the forum's benefit.




PE is like 10 atm at 4.70, so thats why people like it?


----------



## michael_selway (5 January 2006)

*Re: Zinifex... ZFX*

Anyone notice Comsec changing forecasts for ZFX

Earnings and Dividends Forecast (cents per share) 
2005 2006 2007 2008 
EPS 35.9 92.8 132.3 126.7 
DPS 4.0 27.2 30.0 31.9 

They lowered it but still pretty good, esp the 2008 one, where most of the danger lie for zfx, as analysts predict supply will be increasingly more than demand


----------



## Kipp (8 January 2006)

*Re: Zinifex... ZFX*

ZFX has had a great run over the last 12 months but where is it headed now that P.E. ratio has reached 15?  Can't be too much room for profit growth as production was basically the same as previous year levels (going by the Sept QTR updates).  So where are the Commsec (see previous post) EPS growth predictions coming from?

Directors where buying up last week (as shown in the AFR) maybe some good announcements round the corner?


----------



## michael_selway (8 January 2006)

*Re: Zinifex... ZFX*



			
				Kipp said:
			
		

> ZFX has had a great run over the last 12 months but where is it headed now that P.E. ratio has reached 15?  Can't be too much room for profit growth as production was basically the same as previous year levels (going by the Sept QTR updates).  So where are the Commsec (see previous post) EPS growth predictions coming from?
> 
> Directors where buying up last week (as shown in the AFR) maybe some good announcements round the corner?




The forecasts are from www.comsec.com.au

CONTRIBUTING ANALYSTS  
MERRILL LYNCH (INTERNATIONAL RESEARCH), UBS, RBC CAPITAL MARKETS (CANADA), GOLDMAN SACHS JB WERE, MORGAN STANLEY, CS FIRST BOSTON AUSTRALIA SECURITIES,LTD, CITIGROUP, DEUTSCHE BANK SECURITIES, MACQUARIE RESEARCH EQUITIES 

Current PE with SP at $6.79 (thursday close) is 10.39 which uses 2005 EPS & 2006 forecast EPS & weights them using number of days from each one. Since we are in Early Jan, its about in the middle so (35.9+92.8)/2 = 64.4

So PE = 6.79/0.644 = 10.54 or there abouts

2005: 35.9
2006: 92.8
2007: 132.3
2008: 126.7

At current SP of $6.90, 2008 PE would be 6.90/1.267 = 5.45

2008 amd beyond is where the danger lies for ZFZ......

Btw what price did AFR say the directors bought ZFX?


----------



## Kipp (9 January 2006)

*Re: Zinifex... ZFX*

Sorry All, I am a twat.  5 directors acquired shares bu just as part of their Non-Executive Director share plan.  (only 1-2000 each).  But Michael, wasn't their 2005 Earnings 47cps not 35.9?


----------



## michael_selway (9 January 2006)

*Re: Zinifex... ZFX*



			
				Kipp said:
			
		

> Sorry All, I am a twat.  5 directors acquired shares bu just as part of their Non-Executive Director share plan.  (only 1-2000 each).  But Michael, wasn't their 2005 Earnings 47cps not 35.9?




Maybe this had to do something with it, exc income tax benefit?

Headline FY05 NPAT quadrupled compared to FY04 to $234.7m. The previous year only included three months production and profits. The headline result was boosted by an income tax benefit of $55.6m. Stripping out the tax benefit, adjusted NPAT roughly tripled to $179.1m. Sales revenue was increased fourfold to $1.92bn due to a full years production.


----------



## nizar (9 January 2006)

*Re: Zinifex... ZFX*

They paid $6.69 each for their shares


----------



## GreatPig (17 January 2006)

*Re: Zinifex... ZFX*

Still storming ahead, and here's a current chart to see what it looks like.

Bought back in early December, and already sitting on a 46% gain.

Cheers,
GP


----------



## Smurf1976 (17 January 2006)

*Re: Zinifex... ZFX*

If you've been listening to business news then you may have heard that ZFX has just been announced as a successful tenderer of reserve capacity to NEMMCO (National Electricity Market Management Company). This post is to explain what this is about since most probably don't know about such things (I assume). *Bottom line is it doesn't materially affect the overall profitability of the business*.

NEMMCO operates the electricity market and controls the dispatch of power stations in the main grid covering Qld, NSW/ACT, Vic, Tas (not yet permanently connected to the other states but about to be) and SA. Isolated areas plus WA and the NT have their own systems.

NEMMCO has been seeking additional reserve capacity in Vic/SA regions to cover a forecast shortfall this Summer (Jan 16 2006 onwards). Transmission limits (the lines are already fully loaded) preclude sourcing this from the other states. The reserve capacity offered can be either generation which is not normally available to the market or a reduction in consumption from a major user. In total NEMMCO has been seeking (and has got) 575MW across the two states. 200MW of this relates to emergency pre-commissioning operation of the Tasmania - Victoria link (Basslink) at up to one third capacity if needed in an emergency. Basslink is expected to be fully operational on a permanent basis by the end of April this year.

ZFX has offered to reduce consumption at its Port Pirie (SA) plant when requested to do so by NEMMCO. NEMMCO will only make such a request when there is an actual lack of reserve capacity in the system. Typically this would be during extreme high temperatures in Vic and SA although could also occur due to failure of transmission lines or power stations.

ZFX will be paid for reducing their load when requested. The $ amount is confidential but likely to be more than they would otherwise pay for the electricity they would have used. It most likely reflects the value of lost production.

According to statements from ZFX, the load in question is the cell room (electrolytic cells) in the zinc side of the plant. This is relatively easy to switch on and off. It acounts for 15MW of the plant's 35MW load. The rest of the plant will not be affected by this tender.

The good news here is that ZFX can _probably_ recover the lost production over time as it is generally possible to stockpile intermediate product at plants such as this (though I'm not certain if this is the case at Port Pirie but it probably is). Assuming that the cell room isn't the bottleneck in the process (possible but unlikely since it's not particularly difficult to add small increments of capacity to a cell room whereas it is to the rest of the plant) they ought to be able to recover lost production over time.

Bottom line: They've _probably_ just done a deal which is revenue neutral over the short term but leads to a small profit over the longer term. Not likely enough profit to meaningfully affect overall company results though. On other matters, the move is likely to be viewed favourably by the SA government which may bring some benefits at some point although that is of course not certain.  

The ZFX tender covers Jan, Feb, Mar 2006. NEMMCO also expects to require additional reserves in the SA region in 2006 - Dec, 2007 - Jan, Feb, Mar, Nov, Dec, 2008 - Jan. NEMMCO will wait to see if there is a market (voluntary) response to develop new generation or reschedule maintenance etc. If that is not sufficient then they will conduct tenders for the relevant periods closer to the actual date. ZFX will need to re-tender for these periods.


----------



## dwecke2000 (18 January 2006)

Of no consequence compared to todays announcement. Down like a sack of ****. 
ZFX==PAS, same crap stock


----------



## Smurf1976 (18 January 2006)

dwecke2000 said:
			
		

> Of no consequence compared to todays announcement. Down like a sack of ****.
> ZFX==PAS, same crap stock



Presumably they have learnt something about hedging since then. Hope so...


----------



## johnno261 (18 January 2006)

DWECKE 2000, Don't worry about ZFX, watch MGX get smashed tomorrow!!!


----------



## michael_selway (18 January 2006)

dwecke2000 said:
			
		

> Of no consequence compared to todays announcement. Down like a sack of ****.
> ZFX==PAS, same crap stock




Haha depends on what price u bought it at

yeah today was hit bad, but if zinc/lead + silver/gold/copper prices continue to rise, then things will change again, hopefully up this time


----------



## GreatPig (20 January 2006)

A diamond reversal coming in here maybe?

I hope so, since I sold the other day and it's gone back up 8 or 9 percent since then 

Cheers,
GP


----------



## Julia (30 January 2006)

Have just been reading through the last few months' comments on ZFX.

Can each of you who have had prior involvement with this stock comment on how you see its likely performance this year?

With thanks

Julia


----------



## It's Snake Pliskin (30 January 2006)

Extra high trading volume  8 trading days ago. Selling pressure! Are funds etc. repositioning or is it a short term correction of some sort?


----------



## StockyBailx (12 February 2006)

*ZFX- Zinifex Hill Tops (Platium)*

StockyBailz   

Hello all you Zingers out there, as you all know ZFX is been outstanding value for sum time now since July 2005 when it really took shape and headed for the sky, digging in as Zinc prices rose and now sits on top of the hill while the market corrects itself. I mean if it wasn't for ZFX I will not be here today.  YAHOO brought me to Aussie stock forums, where I was introduced to likes of Chicken, Tech/a, Bullmarket,  and others. Now since my time Ive been wondering were you guys got to on the subject (ZFX). I remember reading you's talking about the company's future, where do ya's think it may end up, Buy/Sell points. The one that got away from chicken and so on.

I've been doing a bit of research of my own; actually recognized the stock back in late july, $3.30 introduced to me by the Star Trader, the clever little machine that it is. Then BOOM Boom the instinct was there, it had the credendials of a successful under rated merger, and indicators suggested, that this one was going places, so bingo payed in 150 shares, a rather stoked arrangement with all fundamentals paying back into the stock, and metals going Platinum (PLA) I've had the privilege of watching the stock run to the hills, and never looked back!

Now that the stock is well mounted at $7.50 as the market corrects itself, I'm hoping and believing that ZFX the stock, is still on a high and has the potential of $20.

I'm kindly asking anyone out there who has done their homework on ZFX, where do you think the stock is heading? If you believe ZFX has over worked it potential why?  Or do you agree with me that ZFX is still running to the hills?

I would really appreciate the score card!   

Thanks for your time and happy trading you all.

*StockyBailz*


----------



## Jay-684 (22 March 2006)

Currently up around 52-week high levels, but checking on Comsec's Analyst Research pages its currently only rated as HOLD (2.9) as an average of all the analysts out there.

Any technical or financial analysis on ZFX?


----------



## michael_selway (22 March 2006)

Jay-684 said:
			
		

> Currently up around 52-week high levels, but checking on Comsec's Analyst Research pages its currently only rated as HOLD (2.9) as an average of all the analysts out there.
> 
> Any technical or financial analysis on ZFX?




Earnings and Dividends Forecast (cents per share) 
2005 2006 2007 2008 
EPS 35.9 148.5 188.6 141.6 
DPS 4.0 30.0 50.0 29.5 

EPS(c) PE Growth 
Year Ending 30-06-06 148.5 5.7 313.9% 
Year Ending 30-06-07 188.6 4.5 27.0% 

Yeah those might be a bit out dated but the forecasts are updated

Main reason why they have "average" hold is that ZFX is very leveraged zinc prices. Although its going up and will probably for the next few yrs, in the very very long term zinc prices will drop (they say). Thus when they "value" ZFX they must have used forecast EPS for 10 yrs or more etc.


----------



## Jay-684 (22 March 2006)

thanks for that!

cleared it up for me, as most things I've read about ZFX in the ST is positive, Comsecs figures just didnt confirm that enough for me


----------



## michael_selway (22 March 2006)

Jay-684 said:
			
		

> thanks for that!
> 
> cleared it up for me, as most things I've read about ZFX in the ST is positive, Comsecs figures just didnt confirm that enough for me




actually the figures (forecast EPS/foreward PE of under 5!) and outlook for Zinc are very positive fundamentally imo, just that not all the brokers agree!









thx

MS


----------



## nizar (22 March 2006)

Jay-684 said:
			
		

> Currently up around 52-week high levels




Funny reading that about ZFX..

I remember last year ZFX was ALWAYS at 52-week highs!!!


----------



## michael_selway (22 March 2006)

nizar said:
			
		

> Funny reading that about ZFX..
> 
> I remember last year ZFX was ALWAYS at 52-week highs!!!




Yep, the onyl bad thing about them is the hit in extra stripping costs recently for the century mine


----------



## StockyBailx (25 March 2006)

dwecke2000 said:
			
		

> Of no consequence compared to todays announcement. Down like a sack of ****.
> ZFX==PAS, same crap stock




*ZINIFEX* just got payed again recently and it looks like its on another one of its ventures. I wonder which mounain it wants to conquer this time.

Its not Zinc - Gold I say I say Gold.   

*Stock'ie'bailz*


----------



## Kipp (18 April 2006)

Anyone know the current Zn reserves for Zinifex- and therefore the potential mine life at Century?  

And how leveraged are their Zinc Sales- what I mean is, do Zinc producers sell Zinc shipments at the current market rates?  Or are they locked into Contracts at a set price?  I think MCR has a third of their Nickel production hedged to a set price, and then the remainder will fluctuate with the market... is it the same story with ZFX?

And finally, does anyone actually believe that the LME Zinc stocks will be depleted to zero?


----------



## professor_frink (19 April 2006)

after today's performance I think beer and dancing is in order!
 :drink:  :dance:


----------



## yogi-in-oz (21 April 2006)

Hi folks,

ZFX ..... expecting it to hit a brick wall,
on 18 May 2006 ..... ???

Chart for ZFX, at:

Click here for ZFX chart .....  

have a great weekend

   yogi


----------



## Kipp (26 April 2006)

Don't really understand how TZN can go mental today and ZFX slip at the same time- aren't they in a JV with ZFX in a 70% stake?    
Zn price also sitting pretty at $1.55/lb, but ZFX down to $10.60 today... please explain.


----------



## powerkoala (27 April 2006)

Light profit takings?
as Zinc price ease a bit?


----------



## clowboy (5 May 2006)

Can someone please clarify this for me.....

In today presentation (that was realesed to the market) ZFX stated that each $0.01 movement in currency was worth $15,000,000 to there botom line.

My calculations bring that to $150,000,000 per 1 cent fluctuation.

However there latest first half profits where $226,000,000.

Surely there is an error or am i missing something.  A month ago the AUD/USD was at around $0.72 and now it is at around $0.77 surely this doesnt represent a $750,000,000 loss on there bottom line?

Does it?


----------



## profithunter (5 May 2006)

$0.01 = 1cent


----------



## clowboy (5 May 2006)

He He yea.....


Someone want to delete my post so I don't look like a dumbass


----------



## RichKid (5 May 2006)

clowboy said:
			
		

> He He yea.....
> 
> 
> Someone want to delete my post so I don't look like a dumbass




Well then we wouldn't be able to know that Profithunter is on the ball!! But at least you're checking these details Clowboy rather than just swallowing it all.


----------



## ctp6360 (5 May 2006)

This one is doing really really well for me, and it doesn't look like its slowing down. I was really pleased it bounced back yesterday which makes me think yesterday's drop was accounted for by the general market sentiment.


----------



## nizar (5 May 2006)

ctp6360 said:
			
		

> This one is doing really really well for me, and it doesn't look like its slowing down. I was really pleased it bounced back yesterday which makes me think yesterday's drop was accounted for by the general market sentiment.




This has a long way to go

2007 forecast earnings are $2+

Could reach $20 by years end on fundamentals alone, speculation could drive it further still


----------



## michael_selway (5 May 2006)

clowboy said:
			
		

> Can someone please clarify this for me.....
> 
> In today presentation (that was realesed to the market) ZFX stated that each $0.01 movement in currency was worth $15,000,000 to there botom line.
> 
> ...




yeah its actually 1c as profithunter has said

although its average exchange rate per period which is of importance

Nizar yeah, also ZFX is the only one thats paying ok dividends for these kind of stocks

Zinc Majors: ZFX, PEM, KZL, TZN, CBH , OXR 
Zinc Minors: HER, AIM, JML, INL, UCL, AUL

thx

MS


----------



## michael_selway (6 May 2006)

http://www.macquarie.com.au/wasp/dailytrader/dailytrader_dttradingpickofday_1.htm

Trading Pick of the Day 
  05 May 2006

ZFX: Zinc Price Leverage Continues to Remain Key

Zinifex CEO, Greg Gailey, presented at the Macquarie Securities Conference in Sydney this morning, and highlighted that the key issue for the company remains its strong leverage to the zinc price. Given MRE’s expectation that zinc will be in deficit for a number of years to come, and anticipating that the zinc price will spike above US$1.50/lb later this year, MRE expect that the Zinifex share price should remain strong throughout the year. ZFX shares have gained almost 300% in the past 12 months due to the extremely large increase in the zinc metal prices.

Zinc outlook robust
ZFX painted a positive outlook for zinc markets, highlighting falling zinc stocks, and the difficulties that producers face in growing supply. Furthermore, in light of appreciating operating and capital costs, ZFX indicated that the long term zinc price may need to rise beyond US$1300/t (~58c/lb) to provide sufficient incentive for new supply.

Cost pressure to continue
Cost pressure will continue. ZFX provided recent guidance that y-o-y operating costs would increase by ~10%.

Looking for growth
As is well known in the market, one of ZFX's key strategic goals is to renew and grow the mining base. Today's presentation included a strong focus on explaining the company's efforts to add to it's resource/reserve base. Following on from consistent strong drill results at Rosebery, a Rosebery extension was discretely identified as a separate project, adding ~2mt of resources (with drilling ongoing). The comment was made that the development of the Rosebery expansion and of the Dugald River project (expected commissioning by 2010 if approved) would add at least five years to ZFX's mine production (ie to beyond 2020).   In MRE’s view, approval of such extensions is likely to add significantly to NPV.

Dividends
Commenting on dividends, against the backdrop of the significant cash flow the company is forecast to generate, Greg Gailey again reiterated the policy that the company will return to shareholders cash that is excess to the company's requirements. In the absence of any corporate activity, or other significant new capital expenditure, MRE expect ZFX to generate ~A70-80cps of free cash flow in JuneH06.

Action and recommendation
Zinifex remains supremely leveraged to one of MRE’s favoured commodities in zinc. Thus far over it's two year life, the stock has traded largely in line with the A$ denominated zinc price and MRE expect this relationship to continue. Given MRE’s expectation that zinc will be in deficit for a number of years to come, MRE anticipate the zinc price will spike above US$1.50/lb later this year, and accordingly expect that Zinifex may trade above MRE’s 12 month price target of A$11.00ps.

Given the ~460% increase in the stock price over the past two years, the relatively higher cost base of some of the company's assets, and the significant single asset risk to earnings, MRE believe the risk/reward trade off for this stock justifies a neutral recommendation (despite MRE’s view that the stock could trade higher in the short term). With this in mind, any significant change to MRE’s outlook for the zinc price could have significant implications for MRE’s view on the trading range of ZFX.

Traders looking for maximum exposure to short-term movements in the ZFX should consider the following equity warrants for a high-risk, high-return strategy.

Investors and traders looking for short to medium-term leveraged exposure to ZFX should consider Macquarie Instalments for a higher risk, higher return alternative to direct share investment.


----------



## Jay-684 (8 May 2006)

good positive growth today!

obviously from the rise in Zinc

lets hope this stellar run continues!


----------



## Kipp (8 May 2006)

Jay-684 said:
			
		

> good positive growth today!
> 
> obviously from the rise in Zinc
> 
> lets hope this stellar run continues!



Yup, it's only when I compare it to CBH that I start to feel greedy   
but a good sign that ZFX closed as intraday high, so it might kick on tomorrow...


----------



## clowboy (8 May 2006)

Comodity prices aren't looking healthy ATM though.  Zinc in particular, hope it bounces back


----------



## Jay-684 (11 May 2006)

up over 27% so far this month!

is it purely being pushed up by the rising zinc price or are there other factors.

also up 300% since March 05 when I bought @ 3.30

so very happy indeed!


----------



## Kipp (11 May 2006)

Jay-684 said:
			
		

> up over 27% so far this month!
> 
> is it purely being pushed up by the rising zinc price or are there other factors.
> 
> ...



Remember Jay, traders are meant to remain unemotional... but 4x gain I can't say I blame you!!!   Will be another pyscho day tomorrow for Zinni as Zn up again tonight (~1.70/lb) easy money.


----------



## michael_selway (11 May 2006)

Kipp said:
			
		

> Remember Jay, traders are meant to remain unemotional... but 4x gain I can't say I blame you!!!   Will be another pyscho day tomorrow for Zinni as Zn up again tonight (~1.70/lb) easy money.




Yeah its funny how nickel has crashed but....  









thx

MS


----------



## ilikegirls (16 May 2006)

worth jumping on this one now or waiting a little longer for the market to stabalise as well as commodities? 

thanks...

B.


----------



## silence (16 May 2006)

I'd probably wait a day or 2 to see what the market seems to be doing.


----------



## lbaz9 (16 May 2006)

I'd wait until the end of the week and see what happens with the commodities.  I wouldn't be selling if I held the stock, but averaging down.  The long term is still good for the miners I think.


----------



## michael_selway (16 May 2006)

ilikegirls said:
			
		

> worth jumping on this one now or waiting a little longer for the market to stabalise as well as commodities?
> 
> thanks...
> 
> B.




I think thsi might turn out to be a good buying opportunity when dust settles, so fortunately for some like yourself. It happened in Feb 06 so i cant see why this wouldnt be the same. Heading into 2007/2008 would imo be the danger years for an irrecoverable crash














Zinc Majors: ZFX, PEM, KZL, CBH , TZN, OXR 
Zinc Minors: HER, AIM, JML, INL, UCL, AUL

thx

MS


----------



## Kipp (17 May 2006)

michael_selway said:
			
		

> I think thsi might turn out to be a good buying opportunity when dust settles, so fortunately for some like yourself. It happened in Feb 06 so i cant see why this wouldnt be the same. Heading into 2007/2008 would imo be the danger years for an irrecoverable crash
> 
> 
> thx
> ...




Been a horrible week on the ZFX train... but if kitco is right on prices then I think we should see some Green today.  Been very hard to concentrate at work for me *ZFX was 13.50 on Friday!

Will post yogis chart from a month ago... he actually picked this one with one of his freaky charts.


----------



## mlennox (17 May 2006)

Kipp said:
			
		

> Been a horrible week on the ZFX train... but if kitco is right on prices then I think we should see some Green today.  Been very hard to concentrate at work for me *ZFX was 13.50 on Friday!
> 
> Will post yogis chart from a month ago... he actually picked this one with one of his freaky charts.




from personal experience anything that runs that hard and fast will come back just as fast...


----------



## Kipp (17 May 2006)

yogi-in-oz said:
			
		

> Hi folks,
> 
> ZFX ..... expecting it to hit a brick wall,
> on 18 May 2006 ..... ???
> ...



Yup,
here it is... don't understand the chart but ZFX certainly hit a wall... unless of course there is another wall to be hit tomorrow!!!


----------



## michael_selway (17 May 2006)

Kipp said:
			
		

> Yup,
> here it is... don't understand the chart but ZFX certainly hit a wall... unless of course there is another wall to be hit tomorrow!!!




Yeah, btw yogi-in-oz

what does the stars say now about ZFX for the rest of the year?

thx

MS


----------



## Kipp (17 May 2006)

michael_selway said:
			
		

> Yeah, btw yogi-in-oz
> 
> what does the stars say now about ZFX for the rest of the year?
> 
> ...



Seems to have a bit more creedence now doesn't he MS!


----------



## professor_frink (18 May 2006)

yogi-in-oz said:
			
		

> Hi folks,
> 
> ZFX ..... expecting it to hit a brick wall,
> on 18 May 2006 ..... ???
> ...




congratulations yogi. nice call


----------



## Jay-684 (21 May 2006)

Sold 1000 on Friday @ 10.90

actually sold a fair share of my resources/energy stocks on friday (AIM, JMS, JML, EXT, PDN) . Not saying I think its all doom and gloom, but if this correction has a little while to go then the idea of having another >-10% week (in my case) does not excite me.

I'll wait and see what happens over the next month...


----------



## zzkazu (21 May 2006)

I agree,  thats why I'm currently shorting ZFX.  10.39% in three days.  But really short term trade for me..


Out probably within thw week

zzkazu


----------



## michael_selway (21 May 2006)

zzkazu said:
			
		

> I agree,  thats why I'm currently shorting ZFX.  10.39% in three days.  But really short term trade for me..
> 
> 
> Out probably within thw week
> ...




do all brokers allow short sell? just wondering, or is it a special service u need to pay in order to do?

thx

MS


----------



## MalteseBull (27 May 2006)

Apparently Zinc went up 18% over night?

I don't hold ZFX but damn this was a good buy last week and maybe still a good buy on Monday?

any suggestions?


----------



## zzkazu (27 May 2006)

MS not all do it.  I use Macquarie CDF service.

BTW out now and made a respectable 85.55%,  didn’t pick the bottom correctly though.

zzkazu


----------



## Jay-684 (27 May 2006)

zinc up 10c to $1.696/lb

I think Zinifex and all the zinc players will have a field day on monday!

May buy back in I think


----------



## MalteseBull (28 May 2006)

In today's Hearld Sun

ZINIFEX: Peter Russell, of Intersuisse, said the share price of zinc producer Zinifex has fallen almost 30 per cent from a high of $13.54.

"Zinifex is one of the world's biggest zinc producers at a time of limited new production," he said. 

"We expect rising zinc prices to flow through to a strong share price recovery for this profitable company."


----------



## michael_selway (28 May 2006)

MalteseBull said:
			
		

> In today's Hearld Sun
> 
> ZINIFEX: Peter Russell, of Intersuisse, said the share price of zinc producer Zinifex has fallen almost 30 per cent from a high of $13.54.
> 
> ...




http://www.heraldsun.news.com.au/common/story_page/0,5478,19277085%5E664,00.html

yeah should be back to 11+ tommrrow


----------



## GreatPig (29 May 2006)

Keep an eye on the next high point, as there could potentially be a head and shoulders developing here.

GP


----------



## michael_selway (29 May 2006)

GreatPig said:
			
		

> Keep an eye on the next high point, as there could potentially be a head and shoulders developing here.
> 
> GP




Hi can you tell me what "head and shoulders" inplies? like is it going to higher or lower?

thx

MS


----------



## GreatPig (29 May 2006)

Head and shoulders is a strong reversal pattern, meaning it is likely to go significantly lower. The target low point is the distance from the top of the head to the neck-line down again below the neck-line.

A H&S pattern is not confirmed though until the right shoulder drops back below the neck-line. For ZFX, that could be around $9, or possibly $10 if you ignore the extreme lows of 4 & 5 days ago.

Here's an example of a small head and shoulders in FMG recently.

GP


----------



## michael_selway (29 May 2006)

GreatPig said:
			
		

> Head and shoulders is a strong reversal pattern, meaning it is likely to go significantly lower. The target low point is the distance from the top of the head to the neck-line down again below the neck-line.
> 
> A H&S pattern is not confirmed though until the right shoulder drops back below the neck-line. For ZFX, that could be around $9, or possibly $10 if you ignore the extreme lows of 4 & 5 days ago.
> 
> ...




Hi GP thanks i see, however i think ZFX will rise today as zinc prices closed a lot higher late friday

Btw what do u call "H&S" that goes significantly higher?

thx

MS


----------



## GreatPig (29 May 2006)

michael_selway said:
			
		

> what do u call "H&S" that goes significantly higher?



You can also have a head & shoulders bottom, which in that case would be upside down (ie. standing on head).

GP


----------



## ctp6360 (31 May 2006)

Ahhh ZFX, my little ray of light on a rainy day!


----------



## MalteseBull (31 May 2006)

LOOK AT THE BID AT 11.92

THATS MASSIVE


----------



## ctp6360 (31 May 2006)

That jump at the end of trading today was INSANE, makes me think it wasn't just ordinary trading..but then again I have no idea, to go from -0.5% to +3.6% in under 5 minutes is a pretty huge change though!


----------



## moses (31 May 2006)

Probably a desperate "at market" buy. I made that mistake once....


----------



## professor_frink (31 May 2006)

moses said:
			
		

> Probably a desperate "at market" buy. I made that mistake once....



there was over 11.5 million shares traded at 4.15. There'd have to be something pretty big going on for someone to buy 135 million dollars worth of stock in desperation!


----------



## moses (31 May 2006)

So if it jumped up like that tonight, and if London and New York behave favourably...what saith the morning?


----------



## michael_selway (31 May 2006)

ctp6360 said:
			
		

> That jump at the end of trading today was INSANE, makes me think it wasn't just ordinary trading..but then again I have no idea, to go from -0.5% to +3.6% in under 5 minutes is a pretty huge change though!




omg thats crazy, its the after market auction

wonder why they bought so much so late? KZL went up as well

Zinc price down a bit actually atm so not sure why?

does anyone know?

It might the first effective day that ZFX, along with WOR, PDN, ABS, GFF being added to the MCIS Index

Morgan Stanley Capital International Inc (MSCI) World Standard Index Series for Australia in the Energy Industry Group sector.

http://www.msci.com/pressreleases/archive/MSCI_May06_STPR.pdf

thx

MS


----------



## professor_frink (31 May 2006)

Personally, I don't think it tells us much yet. Stocks often move around alot between 4 and 4.15, but then again ZFX had been rallying pretty hard from about 2pm, so there could be something in the wind! We will have to wait and see


----------



## Claudius (31 May 2006)

professor_frink said:
			
		

> Personally, I don't think it tells us much yet. Stocks often move around alot between 4 and 4.15, but then again ZFX had been rallying pretty hard from about 2pm, so there could be something in the wind! We will have to wait and see




Justification for the rise given on ABC news (Alan Kohler) was a press release today (clocked at 8:44 AM on the ASX site) regarding the expansion of exploration at their Tasmanian mine (Rosebery)
Recent exploration said to be "encouraging".

Have to say though, it didn't take me all day to read it.


----------



## nizar (31 May 2006)

Claudius said:
			
		

> Have to say though, it didn't take me all day to read it.




Agree

Given the number of after hours trades in "special portfolio crossings", which was 20million shares, so more than $200million from 4:00pm onwards

It seems like maybe ZFX is now included in asx50 (as of 2mrw), it makes sense considering the market cap and the number of instos buying before 2mrw (june 1st) as some fund managers would have to include ZFX by definition 

I have no proof of this or any source, just my thoughts, but seems to make sense...


----------



## michael_selway (1 June 2006)

nizar said:
			
		

> Agree
> 
> Given the number of after hours trades in "special portfolio crossings", which was 20million shares, so more than $200million from 4:00pm onwards
> 
> ...




http://www.couriermail.news.com.au/story/0,20797,19319987-3122,00.html

AUSTRALIAN stocks sank in their biggest monthly fall in more than three years, with big miners BHP Billiton and Rio Tinto Group savaged by a slide in London metal prices.

Stocks that rely on overseas sales, including Westfield Group, declined also after US consumer confidence fell in May and Wal-Mart Stores struggled to meet its sales forecast.

The S&P/ASX 200 Index dropped 103.7, or 2 per cent, to 5001.7 by the closing bell, the biggest one-day slide since October 6. The index dropped 4.9 per cent in May, the worst monthly performance since February 2003.

"I've been spooked by this market all month," said Matthew Kidman, who helps manage $385 million at Wilson Asset Management. "We're definitely not in a comfortable place, especially with the mining stocks taking the brunt of it. Share valuations don't leave much room for risk and I'm concerned that we might be seeing the beginning of a change in sentiment that could last for the rest of the year."

The All Ordinaries shed 1.9 per cent, closing down 94.5 points at 4972.3.

Virtually no sector of the market escaped unscathed, with energy, materials, health care, banking and finance all down over the day.

"The big surprise was that everything fell so much overnight," said David Halliday, client adviser at Macquarie Equities. "There just seems to be so much volatility that people don't know which way to jump at the moment."

BHP Billiton and Rio Tinto both fell 3.8 per cent after copper prices dropped 3.5 per cent overnight.

"The sell-off in the States (overnight) is worrying me," said Michael Caldis, options trader at ABN Amro Morgans. "It seems to be down on no significant news."

*Zinifex rose 3.6 per cent as index funds bought the stock after its inclusion in the Morgan Stanley Capital International (MSCI) World Standard Index Series for Australia. The MSCI inclusions dramatically boosted market volume to a record $10 billion.

Other new MSCI inclusions are ABC Learning, WorelyParsons, Paladin Resources and Goodman Fielder. ABC rose 1.1 per cent, Paladin rose 7.1 per cent and Goodman Fielder fell 1.9 per cent. All stocks in the top 20 lost ground and among those, National Australia Bank fell 3.1 per cent and AMP fell 2.8 per cent.*

ABN Amro Morgans senior equity adviser Tony Russell said

the market would see some pullback "but in no way are we going into any bearish state". 

thx

MS


----------



## Claudius (1 June 2006)

That makes more sense to me.  
There's some serious money chasing MSCI indices. 
A lot of international funds benchmark against MSCI indices and a good number of funds also restrict investments to the MSCI universe.
Inclusion can only be good news for a stock's relative performance.


----------



## jet-r (6 June 2006)

can any chartist comment on the head & shoulder formation of ZFX?
It looks to me its almost completed.


----------



## michael_selway (6 June 2006)

jet-r said:
			
		

> can any chartist comment on the head & shoulder formation of ZFX?
> It looks to me its almost completed.




where ZFX is going to go will depend on the DOW and Zinc Price, 

Can you see if Head And Shoulders is forming for those?

thx

MS


----------



## jet-r (6 June 2006)

the movement in Zinc and Dow would have a magnified effect on ZFX

ZFX would be down to the floor if we see a head & shoulder pattern on Zinc and Dow.


----------



## ctp6360 (6 June 2006)

Has anyone noticed the recent share buy-backs of ZFX in June, just in the most 2 recent buybacks they have bought back $80 million worth of shares if what I read is correct, what does this mean? I have no knowledge of this kind of thing....


----------



## GreatPig (6 June 2006)

I would put right shoulder completion at around $10 now.

GP


----------



## ctp6360 (6 June 2006)

GP what happens after a shoulder has completed? Does it keep going down or bounce back?


----------



## jet-r (6 June 2006)

zfx is trading at a masssive volumn today.  40,040,891!!! that is $400Million exchanged ! and its not even 12:30 yet. 
Is it because of the speculation of the head and shoulder?


----------



## nizar (6 June 2006)

ctp6360 said:
			
		

> Has anyone noticed the recent share buy-backs of ZFX in June, just in the most 2 recent buybacks they have bought back $80 million worth of shares if what I read is correct, what does this mean? I have no knowledge of this kind of thing....




Hi ctp6360

share buy-backs are seen as a positive because:

1- it means the company has belief that the share price will go higher ie. it will be a good investment

2- this will reduce the number of shares outstanding, thus giving a boost to earnings per share figures ie. even if NPAT is the same, eps will be higher

hope that helps


----------



## nizar (6 June 2006)

jet-r said:
			
		

> zfx is trading at a masssive volumn today.  40,040,891!!! that is $400Million exchanged ! and its not even 12:30 yet.
> Is it because of the speculation of the head and shoulder?




i very much doubt its because of the head and shoulder; those technical indicators pop up all the time, yet i rarely see this kind of effect esp. in blue-chips held by instos

but i guess there must be a reason for the massive volume


----------



## GreatPig (6 June 2006)

ctp6360 said:
			
		

> GP what happens after a shoulder has completed? Does it keep going down or bounce back?



See my earlier message #601.

GP


----------



## GreatPig (8 June 2006)

To be or not to be, that is the question...

GP


----------



## cuttlefish (8 June 2006)

if lme zinc keeps heading the way it started tonight then I vote "to be".


----------



## BentRod (9 June 2006)

Zinc down 10% ATM.

GP...looks like a wave 3 to me which would mean quite a bit of downside to come.

cheers


----------



## The Barbarian Investor (9 June 2006)

WOW..what a difference since i last visited this thread and held this stock....

ZFX powered on after the initial post and my holdings..i sold out to buy IP#4 in Perth (Fully Furnished IP for $290k now worth about $350k (rented at $300 p/wk PLUS depreciation etc) now and apart from Equity..nothing down)

TBI


----------



## michael_selway (10 June 2006)

BentRod said:
			
		

> Zinc down 10% ATM.
> 
> GP...looks like a wave 3 to me which would mean quite a bit of downside to come.
> 
> cheers




yeah if Dow and/or zinc price fell alot yeah of course

thx

MS


----------



## BentRod (11 June 2006)

> yeah if Dow and/or zinc price fell alot yeah of course




I was refering to the next couple of weeks, not for Friday.

If it is a wave 3, the target price is around $7.


----------



## GreatPig (11 June 2006)

Yeah, IMO the target downside would be the low-mid $7 range too.

GP


----------



## scsl (11 June 2006)

Hi all

Been reading up on this site for a while now but have only just started to post...

I've had my eye on ZFX lately and had a few questions that I was wondering you'd be able to help me on. Firstly, why does ZFX trade on a fairly low PE ratio? Even when it was trading above $13, its PE was about 8, based on consensus estimates (off Commsec) of 2006 earnings.

I read that stocks like Google, Seek and Lihir have really high PEs becuase of their expected high earnings growth to continue. So with zinc at low supply and higher prices set to continue, why doesn't ZFX trade above a PE of 20, or even at 15?

I also just had a look at Kagara Zinc, and they trade on a PE of 18.45... Or are ZFX's earnings growing too fast for investors to cathup, if that makes any sense? And particularly if more earnings upgrade come along, the PE will go even lower. Is there something I should know about ZFX??

Thanks in advance!


----------



## rederob (11 June 2006)

scsl
Not sure what you are looking at - possibly historical data.
Below is from the Comsec site, current at time of posting.
As you can see, forward p/es are very low:


----------



## nizar (11 June 2006)

rederob said:
			
		

> scsl
> Not sure what you are looking at - possibly historical data.
> Below is from the Comsec site, current at time of posting.
> As you can see, forward p/es are very low:




rederob

u misunderstood the question

the question was; in my understanding; why is that ZFX trades on a low p/e multiple?

ie. why are investors prepared to pay 18x earnings for KZL but only 8x earnings for ZFX ?

i too, am keen to know the answer 2 this question; as companies who grow their earnings rapidly; are meant to demand higher p/e to correlate with their strong earnings growth

maybe the answer is; investors are willing to pay more $$$ for ZFX; hence the impressive share price movement in the last 12 months; but pe is still low BECAUSE ZINIFEX HAVE BEEN GROWING THEIR EARNINGS TOO FAST..


----------



## cuttlefish (11 June 2006)

rederob - think scsl was talking about pe of 8 at price of over $13.00 - current comsec data would be based on  most recent closing prices? ( 9.60?)

9.6/13.74  * 'about' 8 = 'about' 5.


scsl - all I can offer is that for mining stocks PE is one indicator, but value of resources in the ground is an important factor as well - once all the stuff's been dug out its game over unless exploration has found more somewhere else.  

This is very different to a typical industrial stock like a CML, NAB, MIG etc. where earnings should be consistent into the distant future as long as the company is well managed.


----------



## specman (11 June 2006)

cuttlefish said:
			
		

> rederob - think scsl was talking about pe of 8 at price of over $13.00 - current comsec data would be based on  most recent closing prices? ( 9.60?)
> 
> 9.6/13.74  * 'about' 8 = 'about' 5.
> 
> ...




I believe the "resources in the ground" for ZFX is pretty healthy as well.Zinc reserves are stated at around 13 million tonnes and most of that is proven and probable reserves,not inferred.At present market prices,that is equal to around 60 billion AUD.The market cap of ZFX is around 5 billion.Don't forget they have lead,silver and gold reserves also.

P.E of a mining company would be an indicator of how fast and efficient they are getting the stuff out of the ground.


----------



## watsonc (11 June 2006)

Hi all,

Just wondering how much further down this stock will go?  Has it bottomed out now? or will it reach mid-7s like some have suggested?  $9.60s sounds like a good buy in price for a hold until early next year.

thx


----------



## nizar (11 June 2006)

watsonc said:
			
		

> Hi all,
> 
> Just wondering how much further down this stock will go?  Has it bottomed out now? or will it reach mid-7s like some have suggested?
> thx





Hmm... isnt that the question we would all love to know?

If i knew stuff like that, id be a VERY RICH man by now...


----------



## rederob (11 June 2006)

Nizar and others, I did misread the question.
A possible answer is the fact that the large holders of ZFX are basing its value on the longer term "forecast" price of zinc, which is nearer 60cents - rather than nearer its present day 160cents.
In simple terms they are discounting its price based on the probability it will soon be into oversupply.
My suspicion is that once ZFX publishes its annual report and institutions can see its still undervalued at $15 in a market for zinc that is increasingly tighter, they will be reluctant to take profits to the extent they have of late.
Another answer is that the market generally is skeptical about the long term commodity bull cycle, and prefer the lure of BHP and RIO (with international clout) to a poor Aussie battler come good.
A final point to the newcomers: Pasminco traded well above a dollar for most of its 15 year history before collapsing to 5cents in September 2001.  In doing so, it burnt many investors - investors who probably remain skeptical about the merits of zinc mining to this day, despite ZFX transmogrifying the company (PAS) and delivering IPO holders a 5 bagger.


----------



## scsl (11 June 2006)

Thanks guys! So anyone think that ZFX is likely to be re-rated to above 15 times earnings in the future?? 

It announced at the end of May that it would "triple its spending on exploration work around its Rosebery zinc and lead mine in Tasmania over the next three years in a move that could extend the life of the operation beyond 2021". If Rosebery's reserves were boosted significantly, would ZFX have a huge re-rating?


----------



## michael_selway (12 June 2006)

scsl said:
			
		

> Thanks guys! So anyone think that ZFX is likely to be re-rated to above 15 times earnings in the future??
> 
> It announced at the end of May that it would "triple its spending on exploration work around its Rosebery zinc and lead mine in Tasmania over the next three years in a move that could extend the life of the operation beyond 2021". If Rosebery's reserves were boosted significantly, would ZFX have a huge re-rating?




Fwd PE of 15 is too high i think, fwd PE of 10 is fair value IMO or 10% pa in the future. $16 if u use 2008 EPS forecasts

Earnings and Dividends Forecast (cents per share) 
2005 2006 2007 2008 
EPS 35.9 184.9 279.5 162.8 
DPS 4.0 43.0 50.0 35.0 







If you see above, the threat of oversupply isnt really that great. In fact supply increased alot during 2001-2003, Tech Wreck/Sep 11/SARS periods. But before that supply was infact already decreasing rapidly. Pasminco must have been really unlucky.   

thx

MS


----------



## scsl (12 June 2006)

Sorry Michael, but what does "fair value IMO or 10% pa in the future" mean?

And also, when stock analysts set a price target, do they usually set it based on next year's earnings? Becuase I read somewhere recently that they wrote: "...based on 2007 estimate of earnings."

thx


----------



## rederob (12 June 2006)

scsl said:
			
		

> And also, when stock analysts set a price target, do they usually set it based on next year's earnings? Becuase I read somewhere recently that they wrote: "...based on 2007 estimate of earnings."



scsl
In my earlier post of Comsec analyst forecasts for ZFX you can see a 40% variation in forecast in 3 months.
Forecasting is prone to error and about the only thing you take from it is a probable uptrend in the case of ZFX going forward.


----------



## cuttlefish (12 June 2006)

specman said:
			
		

> I believe the "resources in the ground" for ZFX is pretty healthy as well.Zinc reserves are stated at around 13 million tonnes and most of that is proven and probable reserves,not inferred.At present market prices,that is equal to around 60 billion AUD.The market cap of ZFX is around 5 billion.Don't forget they have lead,silver and gold reserves also.
> 
> P.E of a mining company would be an indicator of how fast and efficient they are getting the stuff out of the ground.




Its still a point of difference between mining companies and typical industrial stocks - mine life/resources in the ground are an important factor in valuation. The cost of getting those resources out is something to consider as well - and is it going to get more expensive towards the end of the mines life?

Regarding ZFX and whether its under/overvalued it depends directly on long term view of zinc prices. If current prices are sustainable over the long term (i.e. over a period of many years) it may be undervalued.  If prices return to near the averages they've shown over the previous 10 years its probably overvalued.  (of course other factors like interest rates and exchange rates also contribute as well.)


----------



## specman (12 June 2006)

Yes,the crucial factor is how long can zinc maintain it's current price.Investors in commodities are obviously worried at the moment about inflation and increasing interest rates having a negative effect on economic growth,which will impact demand for base metals.

I think the China juggernaut has built too much momentum to slow and Americans will remain addicted to cheap Chinese products which appears to get cheaper by the minute.China will continue to foster the U.S trade deficit until the Chinese can absorb their own products which will take a while as asians are savers,not spenders.Perhaps the next generation.China cannot afford to abandon investment in America in the foreseeable future since they are their biggest customer.

Zinc mining has gone years of underinvestment and if demand continues to remain strong,supply will will be tight for years to come.It takes many years to open new mines.


----------



## silence (18 June 2006)

Looks to me like the H+S has happened, and it's on the way down. I'm not too familiar with candles (specifically what different 'formations' mean) but there were big moves on the days that touched what looks like a new downtrend.


----------



## swingstar (18 June 2006)

It is definitely a text-book H&S setup. Will be interesting to see if it follows through.


----------



## Sean K (18 June 2006)

Could drop to $7.00 on the charts. Looks like there's very good support around there. Below $7.00 and you could be going back to $5.00. I'm no expert chart reader of course.


----------



## Jay-684 (18 June 2006)

sold late may for $11 and was thinking of buying back in, but given the lastest posts may wait and see...

$7 would be a very nice price to pick them up!


----------



## michael_selway (18 June 2006)

silence said:
			
		

> Looks to me like the H+S has happened, and it's on the way down. I'm not too familiar with candles (specifically what different 'formations' mean) but there were big moves on the days that touched what looks like a new downtrend.




Zinc price moved up alot on Friday, DOW not much change

so shoudl be up on monday, may touch $11, was about $10 on close

thx

MS


----------



## NettAssets (18 June 2006)

Ive got to put a good spin on this cause I've got some long $11 calls with high IV that are bleeding badly  
I won't be too suprised to see a lower open at 9 or so.
I need it to go to 12 while the IV is high.
John


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## silence (19 June 2006)

My interpretation is that $10 is the neckline..the price also came up to about that from underneath (the most recent day on your chart there) after it broke through it which confirms it.

I'll be looking at puts tomorrow morning I think


----------



## alankew (19 June 2006)

Apologoies for the dumb questions but in laymans terms what does the following mean-I am trying to understand heads and shoulders now i have necklines to think about!  My interpretation is that $10 is the neckline..the price also came up to about that from underneath (the most recent day on your chart there) after it broke through it which confirms it


----------



## NettAssets (19 June 2006)

The Neckline it open to debate.
Some texts take it as being the market highs between the shoulders and the head, some take market lows and some say market close - take your pick TA is an art as much as a science.

The $10.00 line has actually got a dragonfly doji sitting on it in the left armpit that signaled the reversal from the shoulder up to the head so its probably not a bad pick.

I dont think that there is any clear way to see where its headed from here at the moment. If I am right and the $8.00 support it hit on the 14th was a reversal after the H&S then its on the way into another up trend.
If the bears are right that the H&S was stronger than that then it might be on its way south from the dragonfly reversal yesterday. (Well not quite a dragonfly the body was 4 cents deep   )
I guess tomorrow will tell the story.
John


----------



## michael_selway (20 June 2006)

NettAssets said:
			
		

> The Neckline it open to debate.
> Some texts take it as being the market highs between the shoulders and the head, some take market lows and some say market close - take your pick TA is an art as much as a science.
> 
> The $10.00 line has actually got a dragonfly doji sitting on it in the left armpit that signaled the reversal from the shoulder up to the head so its probably not a bad pick.
> ...




Yeah it fluctuates quite alot since dow/zinc price have been

ZFX - Earnings and Dividends Forecast (cents per share) 
2005 2006 2007 2008 
EPS 35.9 188.6 286.0 171.8 
DPS 4.0 40.0 50.0 55.0 

thx

MS


----------



## rederob (20 June 2006)

Base metals - at least copper nickel and zinc - are poised for a massive bounce post-July that will take them again over their previous highs of May this year.
The US market's correction is unwittingly setting up conditions for a brief commodity boom by returning "value" to its equities sector - I anticipate this will drag out for a few more weeks yet.
All the while base metal fundamentals have continued to tighten, with zinc exchange warehouse stock levels disappearing at a consistently robust rate.
Zinc inflows remain miniscule this year and "demand" for this metal will ensure much higher prices than present, going forward.
That said, base metal technicals are still quite weak and it will not take much to knock off another 10-15% from any or all of the complex.
Whenever ZFX drops into the $8 bracket it's well worth re-entering on the buy side.


----------



## Captain G (20 June 2006)

Hi all, Why has Zinifex been constantly doing share buybacks ?? They've been doing them nearly every day for the past 2 weeks. Is it to keep the share price propped up ??


----------



## rederob (20 June 2006)

Captain G said:
			
		

> Hi all, Why has Zinifex been constantly doing share buybacks ?? They've been doing them nearly every day for the past 2 weeks. Is it to keep the share price propped up ??



Captain
You could always read the company announcements to find out.
Just an idea!


----------



## michael_selway (21 June 2006)

rederob said:
			
		

> Captain
> You could always read the company announcements to find out.
> Just an idea!




hehe yeah

*If cash is king, Zinifex wears the crown
Author: Trevor Hoey
Date: 21/06/2006
Words: 663
Source: AFR
Publication: The Financial Review
Section: Portfolio
Page: 35*

Mining stocks have been well and truly dethroned in recent weeks but, if cash is king, it is hard to ignore Zinifex, especially for investors looking for buying opportunities after the recent sell-off.

In May, UBS released a research report on Zinifex, titled Awash with Cash. The broker upgraded its earnings forecasts for 2006, 2007 and 2008 by 63 per cent, 95 per cent and 96 per cent respectively. UBS has a price target of $14.50 on Zinifex and the broker's earnings and dividend estimates suggest this is conservative if anything.

Based on UBS's earnings per share estimates for 2005-06 and 2006-07, Zinifex is trading on price-earnings ratios of 5 and 1.8 respectively, for a share price of $10. UBS estimates Zinifex could pay fully franked dividends of $1 and $3 in those years, representing yields of 10 per cent and 30 per cent.

Zinc is UBS's commodity of choice in the present environment and, based on supply and demand, it is easy to understand the broker's bullish stance.

In the past 12 months, zinc warehouse stocks, according to the London Metals Exchange, fell from 640,000 tonnes to 230,000 tonnes. UBS believes there is little scope for a material increase in the supply of zinc to global markets in the near future. A significant decrease in demand is required to undermine the strong fundamentals that should support the zinc price once the volatility caused by commodity funds and speculative investors wanes.

Recent data indicates that the zinc price has been buffeted by speculative traders rather than the fundamentals that tell the real story. Even during the 30-day period in May-June, when the zinc price fell about 25 per cent, London Metals Exchange warehouse stocks fell from 252,000 tonnes to 230,000 tonnes.

The wild card is the US economy and the potential impact of a downturn; there is no doubt that demand for commodities would be affected. But determining the effect's extent is difficult, especially in light of the increased demand related to domestic consumption in emerging economies such as China and India. If we use UBS's preboom zinc price as a guide, Zinifex's cash flow, valuation and yield still appear impressive. Using a zinc price 25 per cent below the commodity's recent low, Zinifex's P/E ratios for 2005-06 and 2006-07 are 7 and 5, relative to a share price of $10; the respective yields would be 5 per cent and 9.3 per cent.

While Zinifex presents as an attractive yield investment, it has scope to improve its already impressive growth prospects. Some of its cash could be directed at acquisitions, particularly if the share prices of smaller players fall substantially. Zinifex has existing alliances with junior base-metals producers and explorers, including CBH Resources, Terramin Australia and Haddington Resources. In March 2006, Zinifex reached an agreement in principle with Smartrans to enter a joint venture in relation to the company's nine base-metal tenements in the vicinity of Zinifex's Century mine in Queensland, but this is yet to be formalised.

Zinifex's joint venture with Terramin is arguably the one most consistent with the company's existing operations. The joint venture grants Zinifex a 70 per cent interest in Terramin's Menninnie zinc, lead and silver project, where recent exploration has confirmed that a large Broken Hill-style mineralisation with high-grade zinc intersections exists on South Australia's Eyre Peninsula.

Apart from increasing its traditional zinc and lead business, part of Zinifex's strategy is to penetrate selected niche minerals markets, where it can become a dominant player with the same type of competitive advantages it has with its zinc business. Consistent with this goal is Zinifex's heads of agreement alliance with tantalite producer Haddington Resources.

Though Zinifex's share price could be driven by expanding its zinc and lead business, broadening its exposure to other minerals could provide more stability as the company's share price tends to react sharply to movements in the zinc price.


----------



## NettAssets (22 June 2006)

silence said:
			
		

> My interpretation is that $10 is the neckline..the price also came up to about that from underneath (the most recent day on your chart there) after it broke through it which confirms it.
> 
> I'll be looking at puts tomorrow morning I think



You still bearish on this Silence
Just seems to be playing about at the moment
John


----------



## michael_selway (23 June 2006)

NettAssets said:
			
		

> You still bearish on this Silence
> Just seems to be playing about at the moment
> John




Zinifex smelter upgrade to cut emissions
Production at South Australia's Port Pirie lead and zinc smelter will stop for more than a month from the start of July, so maintenance work can be done to help it reach emission reduction targets.

The $33 million upgrade will include rebuilding and replacing furnaces, and the refurbishment of other equipment.

Up to 350 contractors will be on site over the 46-day period.

The smelter's general manager, Ivan Cauley, says the shutdown will help Zinifex meet its targets to reduce blood lead levels in the city's children to meet international standards.

"The work that we're doing on the blast furnace is certainly aimed at reducing emissions," he said.

"We have fast-tracked the work to do as much of the installation as possible during the shutdown.

"In addition to that, we're doing a large amount of work in other areas of the plant, refurbishing ventilation systems and improving fume capture at many parts of the plant."

Print Email 


Skitzy
please read the red 
Before acting on any of the information you read and making any financial or investment decisions, you should always consult your advisor(s) or other relevant professional experts

Earnings and Dividends Forecast (cents per share) 
2005 2006 2007 2008 
EPS 35.9 188.6 286.0 200.5 
DPS 4.0 40.0 50.0 55.0 

thx

MS


----------



## Realist (24 June 2006)

> Anyway - Zinifex is a dud, I wouldn't touch it with your money, try Sons of Gwalia instead!




Jan 05

Possibly the worst advice ever offered on this bored?

Turning down a 7 bagger for a zero bagger.


----------



## nizar (24 June 2006)

Realist said:
			
		

> Jan 05
> 
> Possibly the worst advice ever offered on this bored?
> 
> Turning down a 7 bagger for a zero bagger.




Its bad call but i think for worst advice on the thread; ur advice on rent instead of buy will give it a good run!!!

(but lets not get into that, again)

As for zinifex, $10 will seem cheap in 6 months time


----------



## Realist (24 June 2006)

> Its bad call but i think for worst advice on the thread; ur advice on rent instead of buy will give it a good run!!!




To clarify, If you live in Sydney and are thinking about buying your first home NOW I recommend you don't, instead wait and rent. Unless you get a very good deal (big discount) on a place you love.

Buy later of course when the price is right. but NOW you are better of renting.

When that will change is undetermined. I'm guessing not in the next 9 months. Alot depends on interest rates.

Those who bought between now and 2003 got shat on. I kept renting and saving and investing - I'm glad I did.


----------



## Realist (24 June 2006)

> As for zinifex, $10 will seem cheap in 6 months time




Why?

What will it be worth in 6 months, and why?

Pasminco anyone?


----------



## nizar (24 June 2006)

LME stocks are depleting.

Read the zinc the metal for 2006 thread... its all there.

Zinc will be in supply deficit this year... simple as that... supply/demand... whether or not hedge funds are long or short doesnt matter longer term.... when theres not enuf zinc left to meet the demand of users thats when the spike will come.

I suspect around october/november is where the spike will come; especially if those warehouses located in new orleans get hit by hurricanes like they did last year.

Century the worlds 2nd biggest zinc mine by production; about 400-500ktonnes this year their production... zinifex unhedged...

Very low p/e ratio.... next year they will earn $3 per share... so about 3x earnings... Buffet would eat this up!

And good dividends as well... maybe $1 this year? UBS thinks so...

Realist

The market will decide how much its worth in 6 months; but fundamentals look good 2 me...


----------



## michael_selway (25 June 2006)

nizar said:
			
		

> LME stocks are depleting.
> 
> Read the zinc the metal for 2006 thread... its all there.
> 
> ...




Macquaire doesn't seem immediate value in ZFX (23/6/06)...EXTRACT

Value without the trap - Avoiding value pitfalls

Event
We identify stocks that are undervalued on Macquarie.s quant models, but are
not cheap due to poor short-term performance, or for other obvious reasons
such as poor growth or lack of earnings certainty.
Rather than a simple screen of stock names, this is implemented as a
portfolio-type strategy with historical performance measured.
Impact
This strategy is more effective than simply buying the cheapest stocks (eg buying the lowest PER stocks) as it weeds out companies that the market has
correctly priced.
Stocks currently fitting the .value without the trap. criteria are listed in the table
at left and include Zinifex (ZFX), Funtastic (FUN) and Smorgon Steel (SSX).
Analysis
In Australia, simply buying stocks that are cheap (eg those on a low PE) is a profitable trading strategy.
However, there are stocks that trade on a low PER for valid reasons . buying these stocks may impede further outperformance. Finding a way to identify
and avoid such stocks improves the effectiveness of a low PER strategy.
Avoid stocks with negative short-term price momentum
Stocks with negative short-term price momentum can look cheap because the
market reacts immediately to bad news. However, it takes a while for this to
feed through to analyst earnings forecasts.
In a PE sense these stocks trade on a low PE because the .P. has adjusted
but is still awaiting the adjustment to the .E. that will soon occur.
Stocks that are cheap for a reason
Stocks can look cheap when there is reason to doubt the quality of the
forecast earnings. Specifically, the market will punish stocks:
⇒With poor earnings certainty (a large dispersion of analyst forecasts);
⇒Paying out low amounts of earnings in dividends;
⇒With a poor track record of delivering EPS growth.
In a PE sense, these stocks are not cheap. They are trading on appropriate
.P. for the quality of the .E..
Stocks are sold from the portfolio when:
⇒Last month.s performance was in the bottom 10% of
the market;
⇒Last month.s performance and the previous month.s
performance were in the bottom 30% of the market;
or
⇒Three month earnings revisions signal in the bottom
30% of the market.
The rationale for this is to quickly remove stocks from the
portfolio if they are not meeting our expectations. This
allows stocks more time to perform once they meet the
criteria, as the filter is a longer term strategy. It also
reduces the potential of holding stocks that continue to
fall while satisfying the filter criteria which may be a
result of lagged data or other negative attributes not
captured by the filter.
Outperforms simple value strategy
Stocks that satisfy only the first two criteria (cheap on PE
and excluding poor dividend yield) demonstrate the
strength of filtering out poor quality stocks based on the
three additional criteria (poor earnings certainty,
earnings growth and earnings revisions).
.Value without the trap. is a more successful strategy
than a .value only. strategy as measured by active
annualised returns and information ratios, although it is
also more volatile.


----------



## nizar (25 June 2006)

hahaha

i dont even hold MS, so to be honest i dont care what they think

like i said; every1 cares about making money for themselves; brokers are no different

i wouldnt be suprised if macbank was looking to take a stake in zinifex; but of course they wont pay market price; so they ramp it down and then pick up some cheapies

the market will punish stocks with poor earnings certainty?
LOL
yeh i can see how the market has "punished" zinifex, it used to be $3.25 in august last year....


----------



## cuttlefish (25 June 2006)

michael_selway said:
			
		

> Macquaire doesn't seem immediate value in ZFX (23/6/06)...EXTRACT
> 
> Stocks currently _fitting the .value without the trap_. criteria are listed in the table
> at left and include Zinifex (ZFX), Funtastic (FUN) and Smorgon Steel (SSX).
> Analysis




I'm confused - the way I read it they are saying it _does_ fit the 'value without the trap' doesn it? i.e. they have a positive view on it?   

Do you have a link to the full article with accompanying table anywhere?


----------



## clowboy (25 June 2006)

Yea I had to read it twice to make sure I had my head around it.

The way I read it they are saying that ZFX is one of the few value stocks that currently exist that are cheap.

I could be wrong.....


----------



## michael_selway (29 June 2006)

clowboy said:
			
		

> Yea I had to read it twice to make sure I had my head around it.
> 
> The way I read it they are saying that ZFX is one of the few value stocks that currently exist that are cheap.
> 
> I could be wrong.....




http://news.ninemsn.com.au/article.aspx?id=65960

Zinifex set for bumper annual result
Thursday Jun 29 17:58 AEST
Zinc and lead producer Zinifex is set for a four-fold increase in profit this year, analysts say.

Fitch Ratings has assigned a BB-plus long-term foreign currency issuer default rating (IDR) to Zinifex, saying metal prices should remain strong in the immediate future.

The international ratings agency predicted that Zinifex would post a bumper annual net profit for the financial year ending Friday, tipping it may exceed $800 million.

Some analysts have tipped higher results, with Credit Suisse forecasting a $912 million result for 2005/06 and Goldman Sachs JBWere (GSJBW) $973.3 million.

That would be a massive increase on the $234.7 million net profit Zinifex reported for the 2004/05 year.

Analysts have forecast even stronger earnings for the new financial year, with Credit Suisse predicting Zinifex could post a $1.48 billion net profit and GSJBW a $1.22 billion result in 2006/07.

The company's mines were cost competitive compared to other operations in the western world, Fitch said, and with most of its mines in Australia, Zinifex was well positioned to take advantage of the growing Asian and Chinese markets.

"Zinifex is currently enjoying the benefits of buoyant metal prices (with zinc recently recording record high levels) and generating strong levels of earnings and cash flow," Fitch said.

Soaring zinc prices helped Zinifex post a massive 160 per cent jump in net profit to $227.6 million in the first half.

At the time, the miner predicted its performance in the second half would substantially exceed that for the first half, if the zinc price was sustained at well above average levels.

Fitch said the bumper profits were close to peak cycle earnings although it added that solid earnings should be sustainable over the foreseeable future, but would be largely reliant on continued strong metal prices.

"Market fundamentals for zinc prices (the major driver of Zinifex's earnings) appear to remain favourable over the immediate future, with concentrate supply constraints limiting metal production," Fitch said.

"This combined with continued growth in demand from China and the rest of the world is likely to result in a continued supply deficit in zinc markets, supporting strong zinc prices over the foreseeable future."

The lead and zinc were historically tough industries, experiencing volatility in both directions, Fitch said, pointing to Zinifex's narrow commodity focus.

It warned the current high zinc prices was not sustainable in the medium to longer term, particularly as more supply came into the market in 2007 and 2008.

thx

MS


----------



## chennyleeeee (29 June 2006)

I hope your right about this. Ever since May this stocks been in the red for me. I hope it goes nuts and bolts to 30 dollars + haha.

*fingers crossed*

CHEN


----------



## michael_selway (29 June 2006)

chennyleeeee said:
			
		

> I hope your right about this. Ever since May this stocks been in the red for me. I hope it goes nuts and bolts to 30 dollars + haha.
> 
> *fingers crossed*
> 
> CHEN




It takes time, and also the DOW must hold at least

http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601109&sid=aYgxkKfmHPsM&refer=



> Zinifex, Asia Zinc Shares Set to Rise Amid Metals Market Slump
> June 29 (Bloomberg) -- Investor Peter Greer says zinc's future is bright, even though shares of Asian producers such as Zinifex Ltd. have declined in the past two months. The stocks are worth buying because supplies are limited and use of the metal is rising, he says.
> 
> Zinc prices have plunged with other industrial metals from records reached in May on investor concern that rising global interest rates will curb economic growth. The shares fell, too, as some investors found them too expensive. Zinc producers would be unaffected by a slowdown because they already can't produce enough, said Greer at Parker Asset Management Ltd. in Sydney.
> ...


----------



## red (29 June 2006)

Interesting to note that it's now cheaper to galvanise fabricated steel than use the lesser quality dimet treatment in Australia as a result of the additional dimet labour costs.


----------



## scsl (30 June 2006)

thanks for the articles MS... definately music to my ears   

i think as each day goes past in this correction, the zinc/ZFX story just becomes more compelling and serves as justification for those buying ZFX at the moment. 

just wondering if any of you invest in some of the foreign zinc companies mentioned in the 2nd article ie Korea Zinc, India's Hindustan Zinc Ltd, Japan's Toho Zinc Co.?


----------



## Kipp (2 July 2006)

Good time for all the metals Fri night... Zinc up to $1.45/lb.  And broker consenus pretty good for ZFX (P.E. for ~4.5-5x times with net profit of ~950mill).  

Unfortunately for the Kippster.... sold out on Fri for (small) CGT losses- I thought the SP would hit resistence again at $10- but think it'll punch on through past 10 now...  I've had VERY bad (unlucky?) timing with my selling lately...   Best of luck to those still on the Z-train.


----------



## NettAssets (8 July 2006)

silence said:
			
		

> 19-06-06 My interpretation is that $10 is the neckline..the price also came up to about that from underneath (the most recent day on your chart there) after it broke through it which confirms it.
> 
> I'll be looking at puts tomorrow morning I think




I guess the last couple of days answers where that neckline is. Quite a resistance at 10.68 with all the competitors marching up past it.
John


----------



## michael_selway (9 July 2006)

> *Australia’s cheapest mining stock?
> By Mike Mangan*
> 
> PORTFOLIO POINT: Zinifex’s price/earnings multiple is about half the resource sector’s average, indicating the price could have a lot of potential. But there are risks.
> ...




to be continued...


----------



## michael_selway (9 July 2006)

> Overall I expect ongoing exploration to comfortably increase Zinifex’s resources over time.
> 
> Currency: Zinifex’s biggest sensitivity is to the value of the Australian dollar. According to Zinifex, every one-cent rise against the US dollar reduces Zinifex’s operational earnings by $27.5 million. Thus a rising Australian dollar is bad, a falling dollar is good.
> 
> ...




thx

MS


----------



## astroboydivx (9 July 2006)

MS,

I'm appreciating your contributions but are you aware that by quoting the entire text from the Eureka Report article you are breaking the law. You should at least mention your source.


----------



## cuttlefish (10 July 2006)

thats got to be one of the most boring days of zfx trading ever - sideways in a 5c wide band since just after 11:00  ... YAWN ... maybe it'll do something exciting towards the close ...


----------



## silence (17 July 2006)

Well if we look at head + shoulders theory, it will now face a longish term downwards decline - right?

Recent peak at $11.20 could be 2nd point in longterm downtrend?


----------



## Kipp (17 July 2006)

silence said:
			
		

> Well if we look at head + shoulders theory, it will now face a longish term downwards decline - right?
> 
> Recent peak at $11.20 could be 2nd point in longterm downtrend?



Do you have a link to Head and Shoulders theory explained?
THanks


----------



## GreatPig (18 July 2006)

Take a look at a few of these.

GP


----------



## michael_selway (18 July 2006)

GreatPig said:
			
		

> Take a look at a few of these.
> 
> GP




Can a head & shouders be confused with a double bottom? can there be grey areas?

thx

MS


----------



## rederob (18 July 2006)

MS
The TA "suggests" a downtrend.
TA types will therefore pre-empt market movements by taking short positions or quitting long positions.
Unfortunately they really *do not * know what is happening in the real world with lead/zinc, and this is where I take advantage of their capacity to bring down the stock's price to my buying range: About $9.
The tightness of the zinc market almost assures this stock of attaining and surpassing its previous high ($13.50) which means that a buy-in at near $9 will give about a 50% return in the medium term (I would say before year's end).
A smart trader would now be sh!tcanning this stock in every forum they could post on, and buy the big dips.
Nickel is about to capitulate its base metal dominance and I reckon it will be quickly replaced by zinc: So buy Zinifex, or buy more if you already have some!


----------



## mit (18 July 2006)

TA will make money on the way down and on the way up. Double payday, nothing wrong with that.

MIT


----------



## Kipp (18 July 2006)

GreatPig said:
			
		

> Take a look at a few of these.
> 
> GP



Thanks GP/// and for what it's worth, forgive me for doubting your move to jump off CSM.  Bet you're happy as a pig in **** that you got rid of them.


----------



## alankew (20 July 2006)

Does anyone know when results are out on ZFX and what the forecasts are


----------



## redandgreen (20 July 2006)

24th August...


----------



## alankew (20 July 2006)

Thanks for the reply


----------



## rederob (20 July 2006)

mit said:
			
		

> TA will make money on the way down and on the way up. Double payday, nothing wrong with that.
> 
> MIT



And you made how much today, mit?


----------



## michael_selway (25 July 2006)

*ZFX ZINIFEX LIMITED    Overnight Price: $9.91* 

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

ABN Amro rates the stock as Buy - Target $11.42 (was $11.48). The broker suggests the quarterly production report was solid, while the outlook for next year is positive as there should be less production downtime and higher metal production. 
Valuation is $11.42. 


Target price is $11.42 Current Price is $9.91 Difference:$1.51 - (brackets indicate current price is over target). If ZFX meets the ABN Amro target it will return approximately 15% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss). 


--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Credit Suisse rates the stock as Outperform - Not a bad result, Credit Suisse says, but the stock remains an “option on the zinc price.” 
Zinc outlook is seen as positive given supply tightness, the analysts say, with LME stocks still heading south. 


Target price is $15.08 Current Price is $9.91 Difference:$5.17 - (brackets indicate current price is over target). If ZFX meets the Credit Suisse target it will return approximately 52% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss). 


--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Deutsche Bank rates the stock as Buy - The broker was happy with production and has made no changes to its positive view. 

Target price is $13.74 Current Price is $9.91 Difference:$3.83 - (brackets indicate current price is over target). If ZFX meets the Deutsche Bank target it will return approximately 39% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss). 


--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

JP Morgan rates the stock as Underweight - Production aside, the broker notes exploration is increasing and following the quarterly results it has increased FY06 earnings by 2.6%. Underweight is retained with the greatest risk being the A$ zinc price. 

Target price is $9.00 Current Price is $9.91 Difference$0.91) - (brackets indicate current price is over target). If ZFX meets the JP Morgan target it will return approximately - 9% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss). 


--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Merrill Lynch rates the stock as Sell, High Risk - The broker, a prominent ZFX-basher, notes quarterly sales were particularly good and it has lifted NPV from $7.65 to $8.15. However, the analysts continue to maintain these zinc prices won''t last more than a year, and that ZFX is a sell down to $6.00. 

Current Price is $9.91. Target price not assessed. 


--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

SB Citigroup rates the stock as Upgrade to Buy from Hold, High Risk - Target $12.00 (was $14.00). The broker has lifted its FY06 earnings forecast by 5% to $950m to reflect ongoing strength in metal prices, though it has cut its forecast for FY07 by 5% to $1.33bn due to lower lead grades at Century and higher exploration expenditure. 
The broker expects the company to pay out all its excess cash as dividends over the next 12-18 months, leading it to lift its dividend estimates to 70c/share in FY06 and $1.20/share in FY07. 

Supporting its upgraded recommendation is zinc remains the broker''s preferred base metal exposure for the next few years. 


Target price is $12.00 Current Price is $9.91 Difference:$2.09 - (brackets indicate current price is over target). If ZFX meets the SB Citigroup target it will return approximately 21% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss). 


--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

UBS rates the stock as Buy 2 - UBS sees zinc market fundamentals as remaining robust and the broker says this should drive cash flow. 
UBS expects the company to return $2.60 in cash over the coming 18 months. 


Target price is $13.50 Current Price is $9.91 Difference:$3.59 - (brackets indicate current price is over target). If ZFX meets the UBS target it will return approximately 36% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss). 

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

thx

MS


----------



## michael_selway (25 July 2006)

Added

Macquarie rates the stock as Neutral - The analysts expect the stock to trade in line with the zinc price, but they don’t expect that to be higher in 2007 than 2006. 
Dividend yield is seen as providing downside support. 

Volatility is expected to continue over the short term as the market comes to terms with increased Chinese production. 


Target price is $10.00 Current Price is $9.91 Difference:$0.09 - (brackets indicate current price is over target). If ZFX meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately 1% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss). 

-------------------------------------------------

it appears JP Morgan and Merill are bearish on ZFX

thx

MS


----------



## michael_selway (31 July 2006)

*Earnings and Dividends Forecast (cents per share) 
2005 2006 2007 2008 
EPS 35.9 186.8 290.2 243.9 
DPS 4.0 63.5 120.0 98.1 * 

EPS(c) PE Growth 
Year Ending 30-06-06 186.8 5.5 420.6% 
Year Ending 30-06-07 290.2 3.6 55.4% 

Previous Close 52 week high 52 week low 
10.35 13.54 3.13 
P/E Ratio 5.54 
Sector Materials 
Market Capital $5,057 million  



> Century cranks up production
> 
> Date: 25/7/2006
> Author: Isabelle Oderberg
> ...




thx

MS


----------



## silence (8 August 2006)

Well, I'm seeing a nice downtrend/wedge developing here. The upward sloping line is an approximate neckline, hard to say where it is exactly but as the chart comes up to touch it before retreating I'll stick with what I've done.












Theoretical trade tomorrow depending on direction.


----------



## rederob (8 August 2006)

silence said:
			
		

> Well, I'm seeing a nice downtrend/wedge developing here. The upward sloping line is an approximate neckline, hard to say where it is exactly but as the chart comes up to touch it before retreating I'll stick with what I've done.
> Theoretical trade tomorrow depending on direction.



silence
I admire your fortitude.
The medium to long term direction of zinc will see it reclaim former highs.
I give no credence to any chart interpretation that suggests otherwise, except for those looking for very short term set ups.
My caveat is that if the Australian and US dollars are at parity before Christmas, my view will be incorrect.
Within the next few months the backwardation of zinc will prompt spot prices to historical highs, and global supply of this metal will not be able curb the trend.


----------



## michael_selway (11 August 2006)

rederob said:
			
		

> silence
> I admire your fortitude.
> The medium to long term direction of zinc will see it reclaim former highs.
> I give no credence to any chart interpretation that suggests otherwise, except for those looking for very short term set ups.
> ...




Its holding up nicely at 10+, steayd is teh direction oen coudl say

Date: 13/7/2006 
Author: Tim Findlay 
Source: The Australian Financial Review --- Page: 25 

Goldman Sachs JBWere has identified Zinifex and Minara Resources as two Australian mining stocks that offer value at present. Analyst Ian Preston says nickel, copper and zinc are likely to perform better than other base metals. However, he is bearish about the outlook for the aluminium price. Meanwhile, Preston says the strategies of investing in diversified miners versus buying shares in miners with a focus on one commodity both have advantages, and both should therefore be considered


----------



## Kipp (12 August 2006)

michael_selway said:
			
		

> Its holding up nicely at 10+, steayd is teh direction oen coudl say



ms I can't fathom the reason behind ur spelliing?  
Anyhow, pretty good to SP hold at 10.50 yesterday, even after Zinc twittered back to 1.49 overnight on Thurs... guess the market could see that it was a just a knee-jerk to the Airline thing in the UK.


----------



## silence (15 August 2006)

Ok I was a bit premature with the prediction of a movement before, it is still within a triangle formation with volume diminishing.

I am expecting a sharper movement within a few days. Impossible to tell which direction at this point.
Given China, most likely up, but nobody can force the market to do what they want it to.


----------



## rwkni1 (15 August 2006)

I agree - the last 3 trading days there have been pretty sharp declines in the LME zinc price (down from US$1.58/lb to US$145/lb) with only a small downward response from ZFX. Usually ZFX would track the zinc price a lot more closely that that, suggesting to me that there is some buying pressure building. With LME stockpiles still falling between 1kt and 1kt per day, I think we could see zinc find some support if US industrial production numbers are good this week (out on thursday i think). I'd also be pretty confident that the FY results on the 24th will not disappoint, and there may well be some buying ahead of the result.


----------



## Freeballinginawetsuit (17 August 2006)

I am picking ZFX to hit $10.15 or so in the next few days, for its last bottom spike before making a sustained hit past $11.00 shortly after. I sold out of ZFX a week back on this assumption.I hope it does otherwise I have missed the boat as I'm sure as! that ZFX will sustain above $11.00 next time and go north from their. I reckon ZFX'S EPS is one of the best on the market. With the exception of KZL, their fundamentals are better than money in the bank.


----------



## It's Snake Pliskin (17 August 2006)

Freeballinginawetsuit said:
			
		

> I am picking ZFX to hit $10.15 or so in the next few days, for its last bottom spike before making a sustained hit past $11.00 shortly after. I sold out of ZFX a week back on this assumption.I hope it does otherwise I have missed the boat as I'm sure as! that ZFX will sustain above $11.00 next time and go north from their. I reckon ZFX'S EPS is one of the best on the market. With the exception of KZL, their fundamentals are better than money in the bank.




Risk?


----------



## rederob (17 August 2006)

Snake Pliskin said:
			
		

> Risk?



Snake
I am sure you would have prefered to offer your views rather than pose a one word reply.
If you contend otherwise, what would your reasons be?
I think freeballing's comments are not only accurate, they make more sense than a contrary position. 
An a time of increasing interest rates and rising CPI one's money in the bank will not earn much at all in real terms.  However, the proven outperformance of commodity based equities suggests freeballing is a somewhat conservative advocate of investing in ZFX and KZL - and I am definitely not!


----------



## Freeballinginawetsuit (19 August 2006)

rederob said:
			
		

> Snake
> I am sure you would have prefered to offer your views rather than pose a one word reply.
> If you contend otherwise, what would your reasons be?
> I think freeballing's comments are not only accurate, they make more sense than a contrary position.
> An a time of increasing interest rates and rising CPI one's money in the bank will not earn much at all in real terms.  However, the proven outperformance of commodity based equities suggests freeballing is a somewhat conservative advocate of investing in ZFX and KZL - and I am definitely not!




How do you guys make any money off the stocks. How can you disagree that there has not been money made off KZL & ZFX in the last year, and chanelled in the last months.I am wondering what you exactly trade.

I aggree ZFX is tied to the zinc price, and this is a risk. And I dont particularily like their sideways movement at the moment. I do however like KZL right now for a run.


----------



## rederob (19 August 2006)

Freeballinginawetsuit said:
			
		

> How do you guys make any money off the stocks. How can you disagree that there has not been money made off KZL & ZFX in the last year, and chanelled in the last months.I am wondering what you exactly trade.
> 
> I aggree ZFX is tied to the zinc price, and this is a risk. And I dont particularily like their sideways movement at the moment. I do however like KZL right now for a run.



freebies
It really is as simple as buying low and selling higher.
Anyone who says different is not trading equities.
ZFX is similar to many of the mineral-related producing equities: They have experienced a downtrend, then consolidation since mid-May.
That trend is likely to end this quarter and my view is that all these equities will surpass the former highs over coming months.
Zinc will be an outperform medium/long term, while nickel is a stellar perform near term, before coming off the boil sharply at some time in the last quarter.


----------



## Freeballinginawetsuit (19 August 2006)

rederob said:
			
		

> freebies
> It really is as simple as buying low and selling higher.
> Anyone who says different is not trading equities.
> ZFX is similar to many of the mineral-related producing equities: They have experienced a downtrend, then consolidation since mid-May.
> ...




I totally agree, ZFX has provided countless oppurtunites for this. Why your'e cryptic comment previously. You wouldnt trade ZFX or KZL, I have many times. Why wouldn't you trade them?


----------



## Freeballinginawetsuit (19 August 2006)

Snake Pliskin said:
			
		

> Risk?




Risk is Zinc Prices. Zinc is used primarily for galvanising steel steel. XMJ has a good couple of years left in it. BHP/RIO make up a large component of the XMJ. BHP/RIO have an upside to their current SP. ZFX will continue their subsequent ride with a North SP.

The benifits otweigh the risks by purchasing ZFX at an entry point at $ 10.30ish. This is the risk I am prepared to trade on with ZFX. No trade is with out risk, I like ZFX fundamental and EPS and am happy to trade this stock.

Mark


----------



## rederob (19 August 2006)

Freeballinginawetsuit said:
			
		

> I totally agree, ZFX has provided countless oppurtunites for this. Why your'e cryptic comment previously. You wouldnt trade ZFX or KZL, I have many times. Why wouldn't you trade them?



freebies
Buy early or into the uptrend.
Hold.
See the trend coming to an end.
Sell.
Gap = years.

An example:
My entry price into WPL is $13.65 and despite a rough trot since May, I have held because the strongest time of year is typically the second half.

As I get older, I tend to hold longer: No need to worry about markets day to day.
When I saw OSH dip almost 15% the other day, I bought in "at market" for the brief time I was near a computerand could log in to trade.
I sold APA during the week at $5 after holding for several years.
I have a buy order open for APA at $4.50 in the hope it retraces.
It may not and I don't care if it doesn't: I don't feel the need to chase it as there are hundreds of other opportunities that could offer a good result.
Hope this explanation helps.


----------



## Freeballinginawetsuit (19 August 2006)

rederob said:
			
		

> freebies
> Buy early or into the uptrend.
> Hold.
> See the trend coming to an end.
> ...




Thnx for the advice


----------



## ctp6360 (22 August 2006)

ZFX up nearly 3.7% after 1 hour of trading. Does anyone know why it has just gone nuts today? Especially after yesterday's rise...


----------



## dubiousinfo (22 August 2006)

Zinc was up overnight plus Zinifex are due to report on Thursday. Perhaps news of the result is starting to leak.


----------



## michael_selway (22 August 2006)

ctp6360 said:
			
		

> ZFX up nearly 3.7% after 1 hour of trading. Does anyone know why it has just gone nuts today? Especially after yesterday's rise...




Hi not only ZFX, but KZL, PEM, OXR in general?

thx

MS


----------



## Kipp (22 August 2006)

michael_selway said:
			
		

> Hi not only ZFX, but KZL, PEM, OXR in general?
> 
> thx
> 
> MS



Yup a good day alround for the miners- the only one on my watchlist ignored is CBH.  Even my old fav (though also a bit of a dog) CSM is encroaching on $2.00.

I think most of the rise of ZFX today is due to financials due out on Thurs- as previously posted.  Then the non-believers will see how cheap this stock really is.


----------



## Freeballinginawetsuit (22 August 2006)

ZFX is having a good day, very happy it got past $11.00 at last.
Must admit I sold out of it today though, the temptation was too great considering my low entry SP. 
No doubt I will be kicking myself if the SP goes up after their Profit announcement, These guys have an amazing EPS for a Business.
Certainly a tempting stock purchase when their shares were $9.60 last month.


----------



## rwkni1 (22 August 2006)

Yeah, I think this one was a screaming buy in the 9's. With FY06 production already out and record numbers at Century, earnings of around A$1bn are not out of the question (that puts it on a p/e of around 4-5 times earnings - cheap!!!!). I also think the troubles at Escondida could drag zinc prices higher in the near term - zinc seems to have been tracking copper quite closely over the past few months.


----------



## alankew (24 August 2006)

When is the dividend mentioned in todays results paid and also when does it go ex divi.Thanks


----------



## rederob (24 August 2006)

alankew said:
			
		

> When is the dividend mentioned in todays results paid and also when does it go ex divi.Thanks



Not a bad result for the year!


> Record date of entitlement to dividend: 20 October 2006


----------



## dubiousinfo (24 August 2006)

alankew said:
			
		

> When is the dividend mentioned in todays results paid and also when does it go ex divi.Thanks




I think these are the dates:

ExDiv 16 Oct
Rec Date 20 Oct
Pay Date 10 Nov


----------



## alankew (24 August 2006)

Thanks Rob


----------



## nizar (24 August 2006)

rederob said:
			
		

> Not a bad result for the year!




yes it was an excellent results... market cap of 5billion and net profit of 1.1billion u dont see companies like that evryday!

zinc prices havent peaked yet; they probably will sometime next year when the spike comes; but we are well due for a run; and when spot zinc runs, ZFX always leads the way...


----------



## michael_selway (24 August 2006)

nizar said:
			
		

> yes it was an excellent results... market cap of 5billion and net profit of 1.1billion u dont see companies like that evryday!
> 
> zinc prices havent peaked yet; they probably will sometime next year when the spike comes; but we are well due for a run; and when spot zinc runs, ZFX always leads the way...




and current dividends about 10%+ franked!

thx

MS


----------



## nizar (24 August 2006)

yes 80c well up from 4c last year
UBS reckon 2007 they will pay $3 in divies they were calling $1 not quite on the mark, i personally reckon $2 in divies all up next year, maybe a special or as a fully franked ordinary we will see....
but its the sp appreciation that im looking 4ward to...


----------



## rederob (24 August 2006)

michael_selway said:
			
		

> and current dividends about 10%+ franked!



MS
I hope you meant 100%
This is from Greig Gailey's media release:


> Consistent with Zinifex’s stated commitment to return surplus cash to
> shareholders, a final fully franked dividend of 70 cents per share is
> announced bringing the total dividend payment for the full year to 80 cents.
> “This gives Zinifex one of the highest fully franked yields of the year and
> represents a great result for our shareholders,” he said.


----------



## scsl (26 August 2006)

MS, I'm curious to know if you have any price targets on ZFX. I remember you posting a very useful chunk of analyst info in the RIN thread...

cheers,
scsl


----------



## rederob (26 August 2006)

scsl said:
			
		

> MS, I'm curious to know if you have any price targets on ZFX. I remember you posting a very useful chunk of analyst info in the RIN thread...
> 
> cheers,
> scsl



Not meaning to steal the thunder from MS, but my price target is $15 by end year.
I anticipate a strong rise in zinc prices and would think by mid 2007 ZFX will trade near $20.
As a close watcher of metals, zinc is a few weeks from going from contango into backwardation.
When this occurs there will be a massive and fundamental shift in zinc's price - north.
In a few weeks time northern hemisphere production facilities resume at full tilt after summer holidays, maintenance etc.. In the interim we have had a continuing decline of LME zinc inventories.  So when things crank up, it seems reasonably obvious that the rate of drawdown will gather speed.
Zinc really is the metal to be on *NOW*.


----------



## dubiousinfo (27 August 2006)

michael_selway said:
			
		

> *ZFX ZINIFEX LIMITED    Overnight Price: $9.91*
> 
> 
> Merrill Lynch rates the stock as Sell, High Risk - The broker, a prominent ZFX-basher, notes quarterly sales were particularly good and it has lifted NPV from $7.65 to $8.15. However, the analysts continue to maintain these zinc prices won''t last more than a year, and that ZFX is a sell down to $6.00.
> ...




This is from just last month.
And Merrill's wonder why we left them last year.


----------



## juddy (27 August 2006)

In yesterday's West Australian Bell Potter chose AFX as their BUY recommendation citing, "with the zinc price tipped to increase by 114% during 2006-2007 before retreating in 07-08". " Our positive outlook is based on extremely low stocks, continued strong demand, low rates of substitution and restricted production growth, which continues to be limited by a tight concentrate market".


cheers


----------



## michael_selway (27 August 2006)

dubiousinfo said:
			
		

> This is from just last month.
> And Merrill's wonder why we left them last year.




Thing is Merril bought alot of ZFX and still owns alot!

*ZFX ZINIFEX LIMITED    Overnight Price: $10.99* 

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

ABN Amro rates the stock as Downgrade to Hold from Buy - Target $11.86 (was $11.42). Strong zinc prices were behind the company''s profit, the broker noting it was above consensus estimates. 
The broker suggests the company has now entered the next phase, which is growing its reserves, but it suggests an acquisition would be quicker than building solely through exploration success. 

The broker sees the stock as fairly vaued at current levels. 


Target price is $11.86 Current Price is $10.99 Difference:$0.87 - (brackets indicate current price is over target). If ZFX meets the ABN Amro target it will return approximately 8% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss). 


--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Credit Suisse rates the stock as Outperform - Result 14% up on consensus and the outlook for zinc is seen as positive for FY07 and FY08. 

Target price is $15.08 Current Price is $10.99 Difference:$4.09 - (brackets indicate current price is over target). If ZFX meets the Credit Suisse target it will return approximately 37% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss). 


--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Deutsche Bank rates the stock as Buy - The result was in line but the dividend was a bit of a shock at 70c vs the broker''s 40c forecast. It''s all good news as the broker believes that under current commodity price and exchange rate forecasts ZFX will still have enough cash to develop its projects. 
Target rises from $13.74 to $14.38. 


Target price is $14.38 Current Price is $10.99 Difference:$3.39 - (brackets indicate current price is over target). If ZFX meets the Deutsche Bank target it will return approximately 31% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss). 


--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Merrill Lynch rates the stock as Sell, High Risk - It''s really rather pointless updating Merrill Lynch''s view, result or no result. It remains the same - the market is valuing in high zinc prices forever, and that can''t happen. 
The broker does admit that zinc will probably be rather tight for the next 6-12 months, however. 


Current Price is $10.99. Target price not assessed. 


--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

SB Citigroup rates the stock as Buy, High Risk - Target $13.00 (was $12.00). Profit was higher than the broker had expected, though a reduction in the tax benefit going forward has seen a cut to its FY07 forecast by about 4%. 
Despite this the broker sees potential upside from ongoing high zinc prices and exploration success. 


Target price is $13.00 Current Price is $10.99 Difference:$2.01 - (brackets indicate current price is over target). If ZFX meets the SB Citigroup target it will return approximately 18% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss). 


--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

UBS rates the stock as Buy 2 - The result was up on the broker’s estimate and the broker sees the outlook as positive and continues to like to he company’s exposure to zinc. 

Target price is $13.50 Current Price is $10.99 Difference:$2.51 - (brackets indicate current price is over target). If ZFX meets the UBS target it will return approximately 23% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss). 

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

ZFX -  ZINIFEX FPO Downgrade to Hold from Buy - ABN Amro  Overnight Price $10.99 
  Outperform - Credit Suisse  Overnight Price $10.99 
  Buy - Deutsche Bank  Overnight Price $10.99 
  Sell, High Risk - Merrill Lynch  Overnight Price $10.99 
  Buy, High Risk - SB Citigroup  Overnight Price $10.99 
  Buy 2 - UBS  Overnight Price $10.99 

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

http://www.fnarena.com/index4.cfm?type=dsp_newsitem&n=4373134F-17A4-1130-F526AED761E1BF29



> The Enigma That Is Zinifex
> FN Arena News - August 25 2006
> 
> By Greg Peel
> ...




thx

MS


----------



## scsl (27 August 2006)

Thx for all the information guys! It's much appreciated.

With the zinc market the way it is, I think that Zinifex will be one of the best performing stocks in the ASX 200 for the next year or so. Now all we have to do is wait for the zinc price to head north again!


----------



## michael_selway (27 August 2006)

scsl said:
			
		

> Thx for all the information guys! It's much appreciated.
> 
> With the zinc market the way it is, I think that Zinifex will be one of the best performing stocks in the ASX 200 for the next year or so. Now all we have to do is wait for the zinc price to head north again!




Hope so, hope that it will do what Nickel is doing now, but genuienely!

*Earnings and Dividends Forecast (cents per share) 
2005 2006 2007 2008 2008 
EPS 35.9 219.9 291.7 232.4 232.4 
DPS 4.0 80.0 117.5 92.9 92.9 * 

Red i meant 10% yield, + 100% franking

thx

MS


----------



## michael_selway (29 August 2006)

michael_selway said:
			
		

> Hope so, hope that it will do what Nickel is doing now, but genuienely!
> 
> *Earnings and Dividends Forecast (cents per share)
> 2005 2006 2007 2008 2008
> ...




They updated 2009 EPS Forecast

*Earnings and Dividends Forecast (cents per share) 
2006 2007 2008 2009 
EPS 219.9 291.7 232.4 119.5 
DPS 80.0 130.0 92.9 60.0 * 

Forward Terminal PE of 10 is about $12

However how high can zinc prices go and be sustained, is the real question

thx

MS


----------



## Kipp (29 August 2006)

Funny for all the upbeat ramping that the ASF is now dishing out on ZFX than none of you picked it for the stock tipping comp...
The happy days look like they've started again... one thing that no-one has mntion is Lead Prices- possibly because they only account for a tiny fraction of ZFX profits- but they're looking pretty healthy too


----------



## clowboy (29 August 2006)

Kipp,

I'm sure most ppl will agree with me when I say that I consider the market cap of ZFx to great for the stock comp.

The winner usually racks up a 100%+ gain and I can't really remember it ever being below 50%.

As much as I would like it to happen I can't see ZFX going up 50-100+% in the space of a month and if it does im sure something with a market cap of 10-100mill will go up by 200+%.

That's why I never tip it, but you can be assured I hold it in the ASX game (as well as in life)

Cheers


----------



## michael_selway (30 August 2006)

michael_selway said:
			
		

> They updated 2009 EPS Forecast
> 
> *Earnings and Dividends Forecast (cents per share)
> 2006 2007 2008 2009
> ...




Updated again esp 2009

*Earnings and Dividends Forecast (cents per share) 
2006 2007 2008 2009 
EPS 219.9 300.8 228.6 143.0 
DPS 80.0 140.0 89.5 60.0 * 

thx

MS


----------



## StockyBailx (30 August 2006)

Thats all fair enough, but I seem to view that 70% of ZFX's success is also due a well astablished corperate managment?


----------



## rederob (30 August 2006)

michael_selway said:
			
		

> Updated again esp 2009
> 
> *Earnings and Dividends Forecast (cents per share)
> 2006 2007 2008 2009
> ...



MS
You should have looked at the forecasts for ZFX from last year, that related to 2007.
You would find that most were about 100% wrong at best: The bad forecasts were not within cooee.
The problem with their 2009 forecast is that it assumes either oversupply or global meltdown.
The chance of the former is negligible assuming global economies runn pretty much as they are.
The chance of the latter is stronger, but it could occur next year or in 2008 - so a roll of the dice is just as worthwhile.


----------



## Kipp (31 August 2006)

clowboy said:
			
		

> Kipp,
> 
> I'm sure most ppl will agree with me when I say that I consider the market cap of ZFx to great for the stock comp.
> 
> ...



Yah- fair enough.  Prob also why banks and most industrials never get a look ni- but I think the stock comp shouldn't just about finishing first- continually finishing top 10 would bear more credence to me...


----------



## Fab (8 September 2006)

Would anybody be able to recommend a warrant / option or other leverage product that would allow me to invest on ZFX prior to the ex dividend date (16/10) and still benefit of the dividend payment ??

Cheers


----------



## dubiousinfo (8 September 2006)

Fab said:
			
		

> Would anybody be able to recommend a warrant / option or other leverage product that would allow me to invest on ZFX prior to the ex dividend date (16/10) and still benefit of the dividend payment ??
> 
> Cheers




If you go to the ASX site you can look up all the warrants for ZFX.
To get the dividend you generally want the Investment Warrants.
The type of warrant is indicated by the 4th letter of the code. The letter to indicate investment warrants is an "I"
For example the Warrant - ZFXIZ1 - is an investment warrant that expires on 24 Jan 2007 with an exercise price of $7.00.
Note the I in the 4th letter  ZFX *I* Z1

However you should ensure you fully read the Product Disclosure Statement (PDS) &/or speak to the issuer, prior to investing to ensure you get the entitlement.

Hope this helps


----------



## Fab (8 September 2006)

Thanks for that information dubiousinfo  ,

Do you happen to know about investment or installment warrant as I have never invested in them but I like the idea.

Cheers


----------



## dubiousinfo (8 September 2006)

Fab said:
			
		

> Thanks for that information dubiousinfo  ,
> 
> Do you happen to know about investment or installment warrant as I have never invested in them but I like the idea.
> 
> Cheers





The ASX site has plenty of good information on the basics of warrants. Do some reading over there.

Also do a seach of ASF, there has been some discussion on them before.

When you have some specific questions, I suggest you start a new thread and post what it is you want to know. There are a few people here with good knowledge on the subject.


----------



## Fab (8 September 2006)

Ok I will create a new Installment warrant thread.

Thanks again


----------



## dubiousinfo (8 September 2006)

dubiousinfo said:
			
		

> If you go to the ASX site you can look up all the warrants for ZFX.
> To get the dividend you generally want the Investment Warrants.
> The type of warrant is indicated by the 4th letter of the code. The letter to indicate investment warrants is an "I"
> For example the Warrant - ZFXIZ1 - is an investment warrant that expires on 24 Jan 2007 with an exercise price of $7.00.
> ...





**PLEASE NOTE**

There is a typo in the post above. the word "investment" should read "installment".  It's the installment warrants that give you the dividend.

Sorry


----------



## michael_selway (17 September 2006)

From today's Financial Review: Investor liftout in Sunday's Fairfax newspapers.



> Investor
> Global shortage fuels zinc miner's dividends growth
> David Potts
> 576 words
> ...


----------



## Kipp (20 September 2006)

Hi Folks,
I've been away in Sunny North QLD and as suh- not really up to date with the Market.  Can anyone tell me why there is that massive fall around the mid of Sept- ZFX slipped from 12.20 to 10.70 in one massive gap?

A quick scan of announcements revelaed nothing bad (just a few JV's)
Did Zinc crumble to pieces?
Thanks.
K


----------



## rwkni1 (20 September 2006)

Hey Kipp,

Nothing material has happened with Zinifex, but base metal prices have been tracking oil and gold lower.  Oil prices have come off sharply as some of the geopolitical premium comes out of the market - supplies have been ample for some time but it now seems as though the market is becoming more comfortable with the Iran situation. Ironically, lower oil prices should be good for metal demand and zinifex, but prices have dropped as instos and hedge funds pull thier cash out of commodities on the back of lower oil prices. Zinc stocks have continued to drop in an almost linear fashion and i there is no sign of this slowing, so i think fundamentally the zinc market looks stronger than ever. As for zinc prices, they are down, but have hardly tanked. They're now about US$1.50/lb, down from about US$1.70/lb at the start of the month. Nothing to worry about at all, i think a great opportunity to get in on ZFX if you're a believer in the zinc story. I think its still trading on a P/E of about 3.5 times 2007 earnings. Cheap!!


----------



## Kipp (20 September 2006)

rwkni1 said:
			
		

> Hey Kipp,
> 
> Nothing material has happened with Zinifex, but base metal prices have been tracking oil and gold lower.  Oil prices have come off sharply as some of the geopolitical premium comes out of the market - supplies have been ample for some time but it now seems as though the market is becoming more comfortable with the Iran situation. Ironically, lower oil prices should be good for metal demand and zinifex, but prices have dropped as instos and hedge funds pull thier cash out of commodities on the back of lower oil prices. Zinc stocks have continued to drop in an almost linear fashion and i there is no sign of this slowing, so i think fundamentally the zinc market looks stronger than ever. As for zinc prices, they are down, but have hardly tanked. They're now about US$1.50/lb, down from about US$1.70/lb at the start of the month. Nothing to worry about at all, i think a great opportunity to get in on ZFX if you're a believer in the zinc story. I think its still trading on a P/E of about 3.5 times 2007 earnings. Cheap!!




Thanks for the reply.  Yep, i was quite a dramatic gap... I can't believe that it slipped down to $10.50 when there a promise of a 70cent dividend in a months time.  But nearly every one of the Miners (except the Ni boys) has had a bit of a stumble I suppose... but I agree, I am not to concerned with Zn at 1.45/lb.  Still miles above the long term average.

Zinnifex can be a tough to hold sometimes- (very bumpy SP arcoss the last 3 months).  But I sold out ~2 weeks ago, and might get in at 10.70 if the opportity presents itself


----------



## nizar (20 September 2006)

Kipp,

If this falls to $10 i will be backing up the truck!

The $1.08b NPAT for this year: the average zinc price realised was USD2105 (see their june quarterly)

Now the zinc spot price is USD3300 (us$1.50/lb)

Even if it stays here their NPAT next year will be close to $2billion

Imagine what happens when the spike comes!!...


----------



## YELNATS (20 September 2006)

michael_selway said:
			
		

> Updated again esp 2009
> 
> *Earnings and Dividends Forecast (cents per share)
> 2006 2007 2008 2009
> ...




Maybe it's a silly question but why do EPS & DPS forecasts tail off in 2008 & 2009? Is it because the company is just not prepared to forecast too far into the future given the volatility of world zinc prices, or do they think prices will fall to this degree, or do they expect their production output to decline, or all of the above?

Regards. YN


----------



## scsl (20 September 2006)

YELNATS said:
			
		

> Maybe it's a silly question but why do EPS & DPS forecasts tail off in 2008 & 2009? Is it because the company is just not prepared to forecast too far into the future given the volatility of world zinc prices, or do they think prices will fall to this degree, or do they expect their production output to decline, or all of the above?
> 
> Regards. YN



I think it is mostly to do with zinc prices coming off the levels that they currently are. Almost all analysts are predicting zinc prices to peak in 2007 and decline from 2008 onwards. (I remember reading this in a broker report a while ago so it might be slightly different now). But it is because analysts have traditionally been conservative with commodity prices and this has been evident in the past few years, with continual earnings upgrades as prices continued to rise. 

For example, I have kept a ZFX broker report from March 30 2006. Back then, the mean profit estimate was $744 million. Five months later, ZFX posted a profit of $1.07 billion!


----------



## michael_selway (20 September 2006)

YELNATS said:
			
		

> Maybe it's a silly question but why do EPS & DPS forecasts tail off in 2008 & 2009? Is it because the company is just not prepared to forecast too far into the future given the volatility of world zinc prices, or do they think prices will fall to this degree, or do they expect their production output to decline, or all of the above?
> 
> Regards. YN




Basically you need to keep an eye on LME Stocks

http://www.basemetals.com/stocks.aspx
http://www.kitcometals.com/

Eg for lead it appears the tide was turning, ie supplies were increasing, thus price dropped

Also need to look at future demand and supply eg how much new supply coming on board next year? KZL OXR all increasing production etc

thx

MS


----------



## 3 veiws of a secret (21 September 2006)

Geee why is my portfolio drifting to the resources sector? Ok I've taken up a position on ZFX....when shares pitstops @ $10.60  ....then Murray Walker stand back. Zinc might drive me crazy


----------



## nizar (21 September 2006)

3 veiws of a secret said:
			
		

> Geee why is my portfolio drifting to the resources sector? Ok I've taken up a position on ZFX....when shares pitstops @ $10.60  ....then Murray Walker stand back. Zinc might drive me crazy




ZFX does seem cheap at these prices; but im very greedy and i want them at $10-flat... so i can get a 7% yield... and then about 100% capital gains in the next 6 months and then a $2/share divy.... IMO only of course....

Zinc stocks on LME just hit 150,000tonnes
2 months ago they stood at 200ktonnes
Any1 wanna predict where zinc spot price will be in 6 months.... ??


----------



## Kipp (21 September 2006)

YELNATS said:
			
		

> Maybe it's a silly question but why do EPS & DPS forecasts tail off in 2008 & 2009? Is it because the company is just not prepared to forecast too far into the future given the volatility of world zinc prices, or do they think prices will fall to this degree, or do they expect their production output to decline, or all of the above?
> 
> Regards. YN



YELLIE, I think even the Chairman of ZFX would have to agree that future profits would not be able to match those of 2006 and 2007... 
It's no secret that these spot prices are unsustainable in the long run (Zn will probably eventually fall back to $1200 a tonne) but the market isn't stupid, that is priced at the moment.  

ZFX is trading at ~5x 2006 earnings, compared to a market av of 15... so even when profits do slip back in a year or 2, ZFX could still be trading at 12x earnings at a SP around the $13-14 mark.  (well, given there yield if shares were still sitting at $11 most investors wouldn't be too upset!)

I suppose even if Zn fell through the floor, profits are partially sustained by Lead (though it is responsible for a smaller portion of overal revenue) and their Smelting business... which I THINK would operate at a similar profit regardless of spot prices (correct me if I'm wrong Nizar), smelting seems to be more affected by energy prices, shutdowns etc.

Volume won't decline in the near future, Century is pretty steady, and Rosebery has an INCREASING resource base (with more prospecting potential), and of course there is Dogould River which is pretty huge as well.
Of course, Century only has about ~10 years of mine life left in it.

Hope this helps.


----------



## Nicks (6 October 2006)

If you are an idiot, then dont buy this stock.

It is common knowledge that the ready supply of Zinc is getting lower. Therefore supply and demand will dictate that Zinc and consequently ZFX will go up in price. Considering the excellent dividends this company pays it wont be long before someone realises this and the stock moves toward $20 by the end of the year.


----------



## Kipp (6 October 2006)

Nicks said:
			
		

> If you are an idiot, then dont buy this stock.
> 
> It is common knowledge that the ready supply of Zinc is getting lower. Therefore supply and demand will dictate that Zinc and consequently ZFX will go up in price. Considering the excellent dividends this company pays it wont be long before someone realises this and the stock moves toward $20 by the end of the year.




Isn't SP about to hit (or hitting) resistence at ~$12.20?  It has been to $12 3 times before this year (and has gone below 10 since...)  I agree with you, I think it still has further to go, but I'm waiting for a retracement back to 11.50 before I get in once again (almost got there yesterday at 11.65).


----------



## rederob (6 October 2006)

Kipp said:
			
		

> Isn't SP about to hit (or hitting) Resistance at ~$12.20?  It has been to $12 3 times before this year (and has gone below 10 since...)  I agree with you, I think it still has further to go, but I'm waiting for a retracement back to 11.50 before I get in once again (almost got there yesterday at 11.65).



Kipp
Resistance at $12.20-12.25 range, and a very interesting one cent gap at $13.01 to 13.02.
Zinc inventories are falling almost as heavily as lead's - both moving in right direction for ZFX to garner great profits over coming months.
My view is that sometimes if you want a stock, you just buy - it's not always what I do, but if I did not already own ZFX I would just but "at market", and not worry for a few months.
I still think $15 by year's end is well in range.
Coming weeks are likely to see good momentum northwards.


----------



## YELNATS (6 October 2006)

rederob said:
			
		

> Kipp
> Resistance at $12.20-12.25 range, and a very interesting one cent gap at $13.01 to 13.02.
> I still think $15 by year's end is well in range.
> Coming weeks are likely to see good momentum northwards.




With the very attractive fully franked and growing dividend you would think that the SMSF funds would be very interested in ZFX at least over the next 2 years. A lot of upside capital growth and very little downside I would say.
Regards YN.


----------



## scsl (11 October 2006)

Kipp said:
			
		

> Isn't SP about to hit (or hitting) resistence at ~$12.20?  It has been to $12 3 times before this year (and has gone below 10 since...)  I agree with you, I think it still has further to go, but I'm waiting for a retracement back to 11.50 before I get in once again (almost got there yesterday at 11.65).



ZFX closed strongly above this resistance at $12.48. Are you still looking for a pullback to $11.50 or are you planning to get in on the next pullback, however large it may be?

I've been in and out of ZFX, last sold some at $12.20. I'm now looking to get in for the end of year run-up in sp.


----------



## imajica (12 October 2006)

Zinc hits new highs at $1.71 a pound - I think we might see $2 sooner than expected. 

this chart speaks for itself


----------



## nizar (12 October 2006)

imajica said:
			
		

> Zinc hits new highs at $1.71 a pound - I think we might see $2 sooner than expected.




The high was us$1.80/lb reached in May. If we breach that, then yes, $2 will only be the first milestone.


----------



## imajica (13 October 2006)

any predictions for todays close?

Im guessing a rally to around $13.20


----------



## Realist (13 October 2006)

Zinc was down a teeny weeny bit last night, ZFX goes ex Div on Monday though, and the ASX should soar so ZFX should still be up nicely.


----------



## imajica (13 October 2006)

what an opening - a million shares traded in a few minutes

wow


----------



## imajica (13 October 2006)

hey realist 

when will they be posting the dividend cheques?

as I have never received a dividend before, I have never supplied the share registry with my tax file number. does that mean that they will withhold tax which I will then have to claim later at the end of the financial year?

as I only bought the shares a few days ago, they would not have had time to mail all the necessary paperwork out. should I give them a call? and if so would u be able to provide me with the contact details ?

cheers, thanks for your help


----------



## 3 veiws of a secret (13 October 2006)

imajica said:
			
		

> hey realist
> 
> when will they be posting the dividend cheques?
> 
> ...




ZFX Zinifex 16 Oct, 06 10 Nov, 06 $0.70 100.00% 
If your on ZFX register by monday coming you'll get the 70 cents sent too you 10 nov 2006.I think!


----------



## nizar (13 October 2006)

3 veiws of a secret said:
			
		

> ZFX Zinifex 16 Oct, 06 10 Nov, 06 $0.70 100.00%
> If your on ZFX register by monday coming you'll get the 70 cents sent too you 10 nov 2006.I think!




Hmmmm im not sure; doesnt ev-div 16/10 mean that on 16/10 ZFX will already be trading ex-dividend. ie. it will be trading at roughly 70c less, which meant u would have had to have bought in today to get the divvy??

Im **confused**


----------



## rederob (13 October 2006)

imajica said:
			
		

> hey realist
> 
> when will they be posting the dividend cheques?
> 
> ...



imajica
Sit back and relax.
All the paperwork will be done by the share registry and sent to you .
So long as you were the shareholder on 20 October (that is, you don't now sell the stock) you are entitled to and will receive the dividend.
If you have any concerns in the interim you can get answers and contact details from the company website:
http://www.zinifex.com.au/


----------



## imajica (13 October 2006)

thanks for the prompt reply  appreciate it.

no problem with holding onto ZFX - with zinc prices steadily rising and world stockpiles shrinking - the only way is up.

might have a few down days next week - will soon regain lost ground and power towards $15 by Xmas


----------



## nizar (13 October 2006)

imajica said:
			
		

> thanks for the prompt reply  appreciate it.
> 
> no problem with holding onto ZFX - with zinc prices steadily rising and world stockpiles shrinking - the only way is up.
> 
> might have a few down days next week - will soon regain lost ground and power towards $15 by Xmas




LOL are u joking?
More like $15 by the end of October


----------



## 3 veiws of a secret (13 October 2006)

Thank you *rederob* your more patient then myself. I hooked into ZFX as I was trying to snatch 1800 shares @ $12.98 before close of play ,it's a neat divi.


----------



## bowser (13 October 2006)

If you own shares in ZFX at the close of trading monday the dividend is yours. To also gain the franking credit, you will need to keep the stock 45 days at least.


----------



## rederob (13 October 2006)

bowser said:
			
		

> If you own shares in ZFX at the close of trading monday the dividend is yours. To also gain the franking credit, you will need to keep the stock 45 days at least.



bowser
If the week's action was anything to go by, ZFX has a way to go on Monday, and I doubt too many will sell immediately to take profits.
The share price has been rock solid over the months (since June low of $8.01) and with inventories falling, this and other zinc equities should have a bright future in coming months.


----------



## bowser (13 October 2006)

I agree Red. Hopefully LME trading on monday night will see zinc prices pushed higher. Might be enough to limit the downside for ZFX going ex-dividend.

Either way I dont think I'm alone in holding this one for a while yet. The .70c divy is a nice little extra


----------



## Halba (13 October 2006)

you guys aren't alone. theres plenty in zfx right now. great aussie icon pasminco risen from the ashes  :  who wouldn't want to be in this right now

zinc's a major success story, as is nickel and uranium. Copper, oil are a bit more circumspect.


----------



## brown dog (13 October 2006)

As Monday is ex-dividend date, today was the last chance to buy stock and still receive the divvy. See here for a better explanation of how it works:
http://www.sec.gov/answers/dividen.htm

A great week for those holding ZFX, with plenty more upside to come!


----------



## pacer (14 October 2006)

Can anyone tell me how franking credits work, and if there's any difference in that with CFD's to actualy owning them.

Bought 1500 ZFX CFD last wednesday.....love that inventories graph imajica...where do you get them?


----------



## michael_selway (14 October 2006)

pacer said:
			
		

> Can anyone tell me how franking credits work, and if there's any difference in that with CFD's to actualy owning them.
> 
> Bought 1500 ZFX CFD last wednesday.....love that inventories graph imajica...where do you get them?




omg u still dont know by now?   

http://www.kitcometals.com/
http://www.basemetals.com/stocks.aspx

thx

MS


----------



## pacer (15 October 2006)

Thanks for the Kitcometals site.

Never needed to know how Franking Credits worked before, and realy still don't, as I leave most of that to the old accountant, and have only picked up one dividend before. But I would like to know anyway Mike, and being cheeky without passing on the info, is a bit rude.....some of us are relatively new to this game remember.....just like you were once.....I'm sure someone helped you to get started......if it wasn't your intention to be rude then I'm sorry for the misunderstanding........Maybe I should go to the library and book out "Sharetrading For Dummies".....lol


----------



## barney (15 October 2006)

pacer said:
			
		

> Thanks for the Kitcometals site.
> 
> Never needed to know how Franking Credits worked before, and realy still don't, as I leave most of that to the old accountant, and have only picked up one dividend before. But I would like to know anyway Mike, and being cheeky without passing on the info, is a bit rude.....some of us are relatively new to this game remember.....just like you were once.....I'm sure someone helped you to get started......if it wasn't your intention to be rude then I'm sorry for the misunderstanding........Maybe I should go to the library and book out "Sharetrading For Dummies".....lol




Hi PAcer, I don't think you need to worry too much about those franking credits    .............. Hope you're still holding those MBL .......... Cheers, Barney.


----------



## bowser (15 October 2006)

pacer said:
			
		

> Can anyone tell me how franking credits work, and if there's any difference in that with CFD's to actualy owning them.
> 
> Bought 1500 ZFX CFD last wednesday.....love that inventories graph imajica...where do you get them?




With CFD's pacer franking credits dont count. It's because with CFD's you never actually own the shares, just an agreement to be credited (or debited)the difference in price by your provider. I could be in-correct but as far as I know they only count with shares and warrants.

You are credited the dividend amount immediately after it's ex-dividend date with CFD's, rather than having to wait until the payment date as is the norm with shares.


----------



## pacer (15 October 2006)

Awesome, thank's Bowser.....yes I am still holding and will be interested to see how long it takes to recover on tuesday (EX DIV), not long at all is my guess, they usualy do when in this position....a couple of days would be nice.


----------



## imajica (16 October 2006)

If Zinifex can achieve  a 2 billion profit in 2007 - with a P/E of about 5 that would price the company over $20 a share


----------



## alankew (16 October 2006)

Possible announcement from ZFX according to IG markets-said it was an announcement re an agreement and will be back at 1:10


----------



## MiningGuru (16 October 2006)

ZFX has traded at over $13 so it may only need one day to recover the loss of the dividend payout.

Man this share is hot!!!!!

Someone must be amassing a holding or something!

It is really powering ahead and will probably push $16 before the end of the month!


----------



## nizar (16 October 2006)

MiningGuru said:
			
		

> ZFX has traded at over $13 so it may only need one day to recover the loss of the dividend payout.
> 
> Man this share is hot!!!!!
> 
> ...




This share has been hot since last year bro its nothing new or out of the ordinary


----------



## bowser (16 October 2006)

Rare for a company to close above the previous day when its gone ex-dividend. Promising sign...


----------



## swingstar (16 October 2006)

Here's a count. Am interested to see others. Basically, it's very bullish.


----------



## bowser (16 October 2006)

I had to quote this call from rederob back in July this year. It stuck in my mind at the time and helped make some cash out of ZFX. Thanks!



			
				rederob said:
			
		

> The TA "suggests" a downtrend.
> TA types will therefore pre-empt market movements by taking short positions or quitting long positions.
> Unfortunately they really *do not * know what is happening in the real world with lead/zinc, and this is where I take advantage of their capacity to bring down the stock's price to my buying range: About $9.
> The tightness of the zinc market almost assures this stock of attaining and surpassing its previous high ($13.50) which means that a buy-in at near $9 will give about a 50% return in the medium term (I would say before year's end).
> ...


----------



## swingstar (16 October 2006)

rederob clearly has a very narrow view of TA and its purpose. My analysis suggested bullish activity in July for instance. I don't wish to go into this discussion with fundies not only in this thread, but ever again.


----------



## wayneL (16 October 2006)

swingstar said:
			
		

> rederob clearly has a very narrow view of TA and its purpose. My analysis suggested bullish activity in July for instance. I don't wish to go into this discussion with fundies not only in this thread, but ever again.




Agree,

Certain people here seem intent on creating acrimony between t/a-ists and f/a-ists.

I would encourage them to concentrate on developing and discussing their own methods rather than constantly bagging the methods of others.

I think there is ample evidence that both methods have their advantages... both work- end of story!

Cheers


----------



## swingstar (16 October 2006)

wayneL said:
			
		

> Agree,
> 
> Certain people here seem intent on creating acrimony between t/a-ists and f/a-ists.
> 
> ...




Maybe we should have two ASX Stock Chat forums--one for techies and one for fundies. That way we can keep out of each others' way.


----------



## bowser (16 October 2006)

Sorry for the confusion, my post has been taken totally out of context. All I was trying to do is thank someone for pointing out a different opinion to which I held at the time. I was in no was directing my comments toward swingstar(or techies vs fundametals).


----------



## wayneL (16 October 2006)

bowser said:
			
		

> Sorry for the confusion, my post has been taken totally out of context. All I was trying to do is thank someone for pointing out a different opinion to which I held at the time. I was in no was directing my comments toward swingstar(or techies vs fundametals).




Ohh....sorry then Bowser.

Present company excluded then


----------



## swingstar (16 October 2006)

bowser said:
			
		

> Sorry for the confusion, my post has been taken totally out of context. All I was trying to do is thank someone for pointing out a different opinion to which I held at the time. I was in no was directing my comments toward swingstar(or techies vs fundametals).




No worries... sorry.


----------



## wayneL (16 October 2006)

Group hug time?


----------



## pacer (16 October 2006)

Nice to see it gained back the divvy today....blue sky above 13.50....buying more.

Good luck


----------



## michael_selway (16 October 2006)

bowser said:
			
		

> Rare for a company to close above the previous day when its gone ex-dividend. Promising sign...




omg your right, 70c ex-dividend and still went up today!   

Btw Nizar do you hold ZFX?

thx

MS


----------



## rederob (16 October 2006)

swingstar said:
			
		

> rederob clearly has a very narrow view of TA and its purpose. My analysis suggested bullish activity in July for instance. I don't wish to go into this discussion with fundies not only in this thread, but ever again.



I simply invest when opportunities are best presented.
If techies are selling down an equity I perceive as having excellent value, I will be tempted to buy it.
The chances are that technical signals will weigh that stock down further, improving, in my eyes, its value.
Techies perform a valuable market function.
No disrespect swingstar, but I think you do yourself a disservice in commenting on my views of ta.
I like to try and keep my market comments market focussed.
For me that means looking for value.
What does that presently mean for ZFX, which some folk are now suggesting is overpriced?
Technically, It's a bit irrelevant in my view as the technicals are not looking at what the company has the potential to earn in the next 8 months.  Indeed, the price to earnings ratio of ZFX is at the very low range of its sector peers.
More importantly, the profit drivers of ZFX - lead and zinc - are at or near record prices, and the trend for each suggests more upside to come.
In another thread, someone asked if MRE holders would "today" buy more.
I suspect that anyone looking at a chart of MRE would say "no", very quickly.
Is MRE fundamentally different from ZFX, I would ask.
And my answer is "yes", there is an incredible difference, despite overwhelming similarities.
The key difference relates to the potential of each metal to move higher.
Nickel has a day's stock available in LME warehouses, so is very tight and already near a price peak.
Zinc has several weeks LME inventory left, and the rate of drawdown remains robust - typically in excess of 1000 tonnes per day.
For zinc to reach on fundamental grounds the level that nickel has, would require that metal to more than double in price.  Importantly, the time frame for that is actually over a year away, although an intermediate price peak should occur in the first quarter of 2007.
So my view is that ZFX is still very cheap if you adopt a long term view.
Nevertheless, I prefer the prospectivity of KZL as a zinc play.


----------



## swingstar (16 October 2006)

rederob, your view that technical analysts would have been selling ZFX suggests to me that you haven't done much study on TA. Within TA, there are quite a few different schools of thought, not to mention not all practitioners trade within the same time frames. Maybe a swing trader who uses TA might have sold around July. Conversely a position trader using EW may have counted the beginning of a wave 5 and bought. It's just not so black and white as you suggest. Techies have differing methods and goals just as fundies do. 

That is all I was getting at--nothing personal and nothing to do with the stock in question. 

Cheers


----------



## wayneL (16 October 2006)

swingstar said:
			
		

> rederob, your view that technical analysts would have been selling ZFX suggests to me that you haven't done much study on TA. Within TA, there are quite a few different schools of thought, not to mention not all practitioners trade within the same time frames. Maybe a swing trader who uses TA might have sold around July. Conversely a position trader using EW may have counted the beginning of a wave 5 and bought. It's just not so black and white as you suggest. Techies have differing methods and goals just as fundies do.
> 
> That is all I was getting at--nothing personal and nothing to do with the stock in question.
> 
> Cheers




Just had a look at this chart. Agree on a EW basis it looked a bit bullish.

As far as the rest of your post... I couldn't agree more. From my own perspective, this chart does not even qualify as a trading prospect at the moment, nor would it have been in July.

There are much better charts for my method than this. (That is not a critisism of ZFX or its holders, it's just not my sort of stock as it stands at the minute)


----------



## Kipp (16 October 2006)

nizar said:
			
		

> This share has been hot since last year bro its nothing new or out of the ordinary



If you'd bought in at $13 in May you mightn't be so amazed!!!     You can't overlook the commodites pain that ZFX has endured in the last 4 months or so....  
Anyhow- I'm judging you've got a longer term view Nizar (you prob bought in at $2.50 for all I know...) I'm the first to say this, but I can't believe that it GAINED going ex-div.  I thought I got the div day wrong all day when it was at 12.80... lol

Hope you're all making a squillion...


----------



## imajica (16 October 2006)

woohoo!! huge volume and no depreciation in share price 

I am fully loaded with ZFX - should be an exciting next few months


----------



## nizar (16 October 2006)

Kipp said:
			
		

> If you'd bought in at $13 in May you mightn't be so amazed!!!     You can't overlook the commodites pain that ZFX has endured in the last 4 months or so....
> Anyhow- I'm judging you've got a longer term view Nizar (you prob bought in at $2.50 for all I know...) I'm the first to say this, but I can't believe that it GAINED going ex-div.  I thought I got the div day wrong all day when it was at 12.80... lol
> 
> Hope you're all making a squillion...




Kipp
I actually dont hold this stock at all.
I did hold last year, actually bought at $2 around august. A couple of months later its $3.25, I thought hell >60% thats as a good a return as any so i sold it.

Ever since the beginning of this year iv been a huge fan of this stock as u can probably tell as iv come to better understand the supply/demand dynamics in play affecting the price of zinc metal.

This stock is a winner, i dont hold though, i prefer KZL and that is my sole zinc play at the moment.

All the best.


----------



## rederob (16 October 2006)

swingstar said:
			
		

> rederob, your view that technical analysts would have been selling ZFX suggests to me that you haven't done much study on TA. Within TA, there are quite a few different schools of thought, not to mention not all practitioners trade within the same time frames. Maybe a swing trader who uses TA might have sold around July. Conversely a position trader using EW may have counted the beginning of a wave 5 and bought. It's just not so black and white as you suggest. Techies have differing methods and goals just as fundies do.
> 
> That is all I was getting at--nothing personal and nothing to do with the stock in question.
> 
> Cheers



\
I was reading technical analyst's commentaries on ZFX in the period in question - mid-May through to early August - at various sites and in publications.
There was an overwhelming consensus that ZFX was not a stock on their buy lists.
I don't doubt that people trade technically using a myriad of different strategies, and with an eye on different time frames.
But after a series of consecutive lower lows and lower highs, ZFX had little going for it in the medium term (depending what you call "medium term" I suppose).  Worse still was that ZFX was a basket case of "gaps" - up and down, seldom stringing together 3 days before anoth gapping experience.
I read you and Radge on OXR a few weeks ago and was going to post, but felt little point as I already have more OXR shares than I probably should safely.
What I noted was a lack of conviction about a particular position - up or down.
On another website, recently closed down by the owner, an ellioticain posted dozens and dozens of charts showing the imminent demise of the allords.
I am sure it will come, and it was sad that the site was closed before victory was within his sights.
So what's my point?
Knocking techies?
Not at all.
Put up a chart, and then outline the probabilities of direction, or trend continuation within timeframes.
I'll try to do the same from a fundamental perspective.

btw, i prefer gauss to gann


----------



## silence (17 October 2006)

imajica said:
			
		

> woohoo!! huge volume and no depreciation in share price
> 
> I am fully loaded with ZFX - should be an exciting next few months





Yep, and even better today (so far). I bought at $11.13 and am looking to hold until next year's dividends at least.


----------



## pacer (17 October 2006)

Redrob....I prefer guess and gain.....lol
Wow what a rollercoaster ex div....when to get off is the question.....before I get sick? or ride it to the top.

KZL broke $6 resistance today at last.......it could be another amusemnt park ride now aswell. up 4,87% as of now


----------



## Out Too Soon (17 October 2006)

*ZFX - Zinifex vs KZL*

If KZL is so good how did it's SP sink so low last May?  
I'm not knocking, I'm just learning & as I've left my run so late wondering whether to jump on ZFX or KZL? 
BTW, I live south of Townsville & see the zinc from Sunmetals going to the port.


----------



## nizar (17 October 2006)

*Re: ZFX - Zinifex vs KZL*



			
				Out Too Soon said:
			
		

> If KZL is so good how did it's SP sink so low last May?
> I'm not knocking, I'm just learning & as I've left my run so late wondering whether to jump on ZFX or KZL?
> BTW, I live south of Townsville & see the zinc from Sunmetals going to the port.





Last May was a disaster.
ZFX went from $13.50 to $8 (40%)
KZL from $4.70 to $2.89 (39%)

Not much different, eh?

As for CBH, that halved from 59c to 29c

I thought about it for a long long time, ZFX versus KZL, iv held them both previously but was out of both for a while, and last week chose KZL. Once ZFX breaks $13.50 and is in all time highs, i will most likely be in that as well.

All the best


----------



## pacer (17 October 2006)

OTS.... 
KZL broke it's $6 resistance, so is probably the better option...and will be buying more today.
ZFX dropped off 13.50 open, to yesterdays price, which wasn't a big surprise, and may rise a little in the last hour of trade......I just bought some more at $13.10.

I like both......dyor


----------



## nevieboy (17 October 2006)

*Re: ZFX - Zinifex vs KZL*



			
				Out Too Soon said:
			
		

> If KZL is so good how did it's SP sink so low last May?
> I'm not knocking, I'm just learning & as I've left my run so late wondering whether to jump on ZFX or KZL?
> BTW, I live south of Townsville & see the zinc from Sunmetals going to the port.



A bit embarrassed to ask but what does BTW stand for???
Thanks


----------



## swingstar (17 October 2006)

*Re: ZFX - Zinifex vs KZL*



			
				nevieboy said:
			
		

> A bit embarrassed to ask but what does BTW stand for???
> Thanks




By the way.


----------



## nevieboy (17 October 2006)

*Re: ZFX - Zinifex vs KZL*



			
				swingstar said:
			
		

> By the way.



Thank you.


----------



## imajica (18 October 2006)

Here comes the afternoon buyers!

Share price always seems to have a surge about half an hour before closing.

I guess people wanting to get set for the next morning spike


----------



## swingstar (18 October 2006)

Expect to see a bit of a bump before it passes $13.50.


----------



## dlineinvestor (18 October 2006)

*Re: Could this be of any relevance to future zinc $'s*

All opinions welcome....

BEIJING, Oct. 12 (Xinhua) -- China is to regulate its lead-zinc industries to cool down investment in the sector, China's state authority has said. 

    The National Development and Reform Commission (NDRC) and eight other authorities jointly issued a circular on Wednesday announcing six entries of measures to curb oversupply. 

    According to the circular, China will tighten market access to the lead-zinc industry by ensuring companies that are qualified introduction safety, environmental protection and resource and energy consumption. 

    The circular said the government will strengthen its management of the import and export of lead and zinc products by improving tariff policies, but specific details were not released. 

    One hundred and sixty-nine lead-zinc smelting projects are under construction in China, with a total investment of 12.5 billion yuan (about 1.56 billion U.S. dollars). When they start operation, the annual output of lead and zinc products will rise by 1.9 million tons and 2.9 million tons, respectively, according to the circular.


----------



## johnmwu3 (19 October 2006)

Zfx record date is Oct.20, does that  mean if I hold the share until Oct. 21,  or I buy it at Oct.20  and keep until Oct21,then I got  the right for the dividend ?
Thanks for The reply !
John3


----------



## pacer (19 October 2006)

I can't see any reason to sell yet.....still no down trend just a little volitility after ex div.

Broke to 13.60 then tumbled......it needs to break 13.50 consistently to carry on though.


----------



## YELNATS (19 October 2006)

johnmwu3 said:
			
		

> Zfx record date is Oct.20, does that  mean if I hold the share until Oct. 21,  or I buy it at Oct.20  and keep until Oct21,then I got  the right for the dividend ?




Dividend ex date was 16-Oct-2006. I think that means if you bought on or after 16-Oct-2006 you won't get the current dividend. Regards YN


----------



## Out Too Soon (19 October 2006)

reasonably the sp should drop after it gos ex div because the div is no longer avail'. So here I am still sitting on the sidelines waiting to jump in


----------



## Out Too Soon (19 October 2006)

just call me "in too late"


----------



## pacer (19 October 2006)

Yes there was some confusion on the ex div, with CFD's I got it on monady...not tuesday....so you had to hold on friday to get it.....still holding for the rocket to take off.


----------



## nizar (19 October 2006)

Out Too Soon said:
			
		

> reasonably the sp should drop after it gos ex div because the div is no longer avail'. So here I am still sitting on the sidelines waiting to jump in




u had to be in from friday to get the divvy.
monday it was trading ex-div - which means it should drop as much as the dividend amount.
BUT because this company is a winner, and zinc has been going strong, the buying on that day was so strong that it actually went up on that day.

the best time to buy ZFX is actually right NOW.
when it was $5 i thought wait its gonna be cheaper, and then when it was $10 i thought lets wait till it drops its looking bloody expensive now, and then it goes to $8 in the correction, we still dont buy coz at that point it looks like its gonna go to zero, and then now its $13?? Do we buy now or not?? Or do we wait until its $20 and let the story go on?

i know which is my choice   

the bull run in zinc is only getting started.

please do your own research or seek professional financial advice before investing.


----------



## Kipp (20 October 2006)

Hey Niz,
do you think SP needs to close above $13.50 for a breakout to all time highs?  Or do you think it could arrive at any minute?  I've got my eyes on the volume... but these things can happen very quickly... then as you say ZFX is at $16 and you it looks very obvious in hindsight...  



			
				nizar said:
			
		

> u had to be in from friday to get the divvy.
> monday it was trading ex-div - which means it should drop as much as the dividend amount.
> BUT because this company is a winner, and zinc has been going strong, the buying on that day was so strong that it actually went up on that day.
> 
> ...


----------



## nizar (20 October 2006)

Kipp said:
			
		

> Hey Niz,
> do you think SP needs to close above $13.50 for a breakout to all time highs?  Or do you think it could arrive at any minute?  I've got my eyes on the volume... but these things can happen very quickly... then as you say ZFX is at $16 and you it looks very obvious in hindsight...




Hi Kipp,

Yeh its facing resistance at 13.40-13.50. If it can close above 13.60 today that would put it a close on the all time high, which is very bullish. Its tried 3 times in the last few days but couldnt break through, hopefully today, its looking quite strong.


----------



## rederob (20 October 2006)

nizar said:
			
		

> Hi Kipp,
> 
> Yeh its facing resistance at 13.40-13.50. If it can close above 13.60 today that would put it a close on the all time high, which is very bullish. Its tried 3 times in the last few days but couldnt break through, hopefully today, its looking quite strong.



It's only a resistance point because it was a previous high.
If the trend for zinc inventories continues then so will ZFX.
Never lose sight of the fact that ZFX has risen 25% in a month, so making further headway now leaves it continuously prone to profit taking.
I will be surprised if this upleg does not bring us to $15 before Xmas.


----------



## nizar (20 October 2006)

rederob said:
			
		

> It's only a resistance point because it was a previous high.
> If the trend for zinc inventories continues then so will ZFX.
> Never lose sight of the fact that ZFX has risen 25% in a month, so making further headway now leaves it continuously prone to profit taking.
> I will be surprised if this upleg does not bring us to $15 before Xmas.




$15 by Xmas - thats 10% return from $13.50 - hardly inspiring.
I reckon we could see zinc spot approaching us$2/lb and stocks approach 50ktonnes. Even with lower depletion rates this situation looks likely.

If zinc spot stays at us$1.80/lb though then yeh i guess $15 will be reached just on general market sentiment alone.

In my opinion, closer to $20/share is more probable.


----------



## pacer (20 October 2006)

Go baby, GO!!!!.......why would you sell?


Kzl is looking to break resistance too.......ride the bull till it gets tired!


----------



## Kipp (20 October 2006)

nizar said:
			
		

> $15 by Xmas - thats 10% return from $13.50 - hardly inspiring.
> I reckon we could see zinc spot approaching us$2/lb and stocks approach 50ktonnes. Even with lower depletion rates this situation looks likely.
> 
> If zinc spot stays at us$1.80/lb though then yeh i guess $15 will be reached just on general market sentiment alone.
> ...



Thanks for your thoughts... still at $13.50... small volume... think the market is waiting for the net leg up in Zinc prices.  I'm starting to question the difference between KZL, PEM, ZFX etc as there SP charts all seem to mirror each otehr so ZFX is as good or bad as the others.... (OK so this is VERRRY simplified statement- forgive me).
Will get on board again once the price is right...
Have a good weekend


----------



## pacer (20 October 2006)

Kipp said:
			
		

> Thanks for your thoughts... still at $13.50... small volume... think the market is waiting for the net leg up in Zinc prices.  I'm starting to question the difference between KZL, PEM, ZFX etc as there SP charts all seem to mirror each otehr so ZFX is as good or bad as the others.... (OK so this is VERRRY simplified statement- forgive me).
> Will get on board again once the price is right...
> Have a good weekend




When are you going to get on?....$15....$17....$18......$20......

I can feel your buy button getting rubbed alot........you will be to late though and kick yourself later...lol

You cant say you did the wrong thing if you never played the game....never look back on a missed trade..... just learn from it...or you'll go nuts!!!!


----------



## michael_selway (21 October 2006)

Kipp said:
			
		

> Thanks for your thoughts... still at $13.50... small volume... think the market is waiting for the net leg up in Zinc prices.  I'm starting to question the difference between KZL, PEM, ZFX etc as there SP charts all seem to mirror each otehr so ZFX is as good or bad as the others.... (OK so this is VERRRY simplified statement- forgive me).
> Will get on board again once the price is right...
> Have a good weekend




you forgot CBH!

thx

MS


----------



## nizar (21 October 2006)

michael_selway said:
			
		

> you forgot CBH!
> 
> thx
> 
> MS




I probably prefer CBH over PEM


----------



## Fab (21 October 2006)

I think the price of ZFX has topped for now. The record date for dividend was friday therefore I believe people were waiting for monday to start selling ZFX and strip the dividend.
I like ZFX but I am afraid that it has run too hot recently


----------



## nizar (21 October 2006)

Fab said:
			
		

> I think the price of ZFX has topped for now. The record date for dividend was friday therefore I believe people were waiting for monday to start selling ZFX and strip the dividend.
> I like ZFX but I am afraid that it has run too hot recently




No offence Fab but thats IMO probably the WORST reason to not buy a stock.

When i first bought KZL at $2.45 i was thinking - maybe i should wait - it sure had run hard in the last 2 months from $1.55 - and not long before that it was about $0.80. Thank God i bought it   It went to $4.70 before it retraced.

Also PDN when i bought it, it had already run from....

I could go on all day with examples.

Anyway, from my experience, thats not the way to play the market.

Probably the 2 most valuable pieces of advice i ever heard when i first started:
1/ never think that because a share price has run so hard that it wont run any further.
2/ never think that when a share price has fallen so much that it wont fall any further.


----------



## CanOz (21 October 2006)

hmmmm, great advice Nizar. I dumped MRE because of thought it formed a doji...big deal, it was low volume...it since doubled. I now pay much closer attention to the price action.

Hand onto to those winners, and dump the losers. easy said eh?


----------



## Fab (21 October 2006)

nizar,
I agree with what yu are saying nevertheless what I am trying to say is a lot of people would have pushed the price higher to get the dividend and might get out of ZFX soon to cash in their gain therefore pushing the stock lower. In the mid term ZFX is definetely on my buy list but more around $10


----------



## clowboy (21 October 2006)

run hot yes.

Toped, maybee not

Correct me if I am wrong but I believe it went ex div last monday (16th) and closed up.

That seems alwfully bullish to me.


----------



## Julia (21 October 2006)

Fab said:
			
		

> I think the price of ZFX has topped for now. The record date for dividend was friday therefore I believe people were waiting for monday to start selling ZFX and strip the dividend.
> I like ZFX but I am afraid that it has run too hot recently




Fab

What's your reasoning behind suggesting ZFX has topped for now?

Clowboy is right:  it's the ex-dividend date that matters, rather than the record date.  The SP dropped on the day following going ex-div but since then has resumed the uptrend.

Also agree with Nizar's comments.

Julia


----------



## pacer (22 October 2006)

Is there a sideways trend?.....no
Is there a down trend?..........no

Sooooooooo it must still be an ............... trend.

I'll leave it up to FAB to fill in the gap.....lol

Goto investopedia.com if you don't know the answer, and it is a great site for beginners who want to learn a bit.......


----------



## pacer (22 October 2006)

Egoli.com news......Net profit up 366% from previous year, more undiscoved ore bodies to found on Queensland tenements, and should be exceptional Zinc prices throught to 2008, ect...........only concerns are costs and labor shortages...........I think I'll sell..... 
*NOT!!!!!!*


----------



## Damuzzdu (22 October 2006)

I'm thinking that ZFX run might come to end soon, maybe around the $14.00 mark. This stock was under $11.00 in last few days of Sept, so we have had a 25% increase in the price (this is not including the 70c divvy).

This type of increase happened in last April when stock ran very quickly to $13.50, then suffered a huge fall. Last time I kicked myself for not selling at $13.50 and waited 2 days. This cost me $30K in lost profits.

Since then I've seen the stock rise nicely and I managed to load up nicely.

I'm thinking that stock needs a rest for a few weeks and may suffer profit takers. I'd reckon around high $11's, low $12's represents excellent buying. I will adding to my holdings if we see that level again. I'll be trying to increase my holdings to around 40K before next divvy is announced.

For next divvy I expect board to announce it to be at same level (70c - March 07) and then it will be the final divvy that we will see something around $1.50-$2.00 (this announcement will in be Sept 07). That will make possibly $2.50 return in just divvys. To have 40K will mean a fully franked divvy of something like $100K. To achieve the some with say CBA you need to buy 44,642 shares ie outlay $2.07M, do it with ZFX and the outlay at today's price is just $.54M. This is outstanding return.

Of course if you already own the stock , the yield is even better.

I guess the only downside of this is that it will not last forever, so the next 18 months are critical to make the most of any investment in ZFX.

Cheers
muzz


----------



## nizar (22 October 2006)

Damuzzdu said:
			
		

> I guess the only downside of this is that it will not last forever, so the next 18 months are critical to make the most of any investment in ZFX.




Agree


----------



## michael_selway (23 October 2006)

Damuzzdu said:
			
		

> I'm thinking that ZFX run might come to end soon, maybe around the $14.00 mark. This stock was under $11.00 in last few days of Sept, so we have had a 25% increase in the price (this is not including the 70c divvy).
> 
> I guess the only downside of this is that it will not last forever, so the next 18 months are critical to make the most of any investment in ZFX.
> 
> ...




actually imo, i think the "spike" hasnt come yet, so blue skies the limit

until yes, when LME "ins" come in thick and fast will zinc price start coming down

thx

MS


----------



## imajica (23 October 2006)

If ZFX can break through their previous high of $13.60

this will be interpreted as an overtly bullish trend and the share price will continue to push higher


----------



## pacer (23 October 2006)

Muzz and Nizar, I think it will hit an all time high soon 15-17$ possibly, before a retrace to $13.50, which will be the lowest it will go.......It's never too late to get on a Bull run.

With profits soaring they should be able to pay higher wages and therefore attract more, and better skilled workers (like myself), and overcome other costs effectively without affecting the bottom line drasticaly.


----------



## Fab (23 October 2006)

I don't think I remenber saying that I thought ZFX was in a downtrend nevertheless I would noyt be surprised if some profit taking was going to happen in the next week or so. I believe it will correct before rising again. Just my opinion


----------



## dlineinvestor (23 October 2006)

Although I hold ZFX I too am waiting for this retracement for a top up


----------



## Jay-684 (23 October 2006)

closed on its all time high - $13.60

any ideas what this could mean in terms of resistance? positive or negative?

I'd be thinking positive provided it moves past it in the coming days


----------



## silence (23 October 2006)

I think the direction at tomorrow's open will be interesting and most likely show what's going to happen over the next few weeks..


----------



## rederob (23 October 2006)

silence said:
			
		

> I think the direction at tomorrow's open will be interesting and most likely show what's going to happen over the next few weeks..



I doubt it.
ZFX will continue to rise markedly on the weekly charts, and any particular short term action will simply present a buying opportunity.
I suggest you take when it comes, coz next time you will slugged a fair bit more for the same privilege.


----------



## silence (23 October 2006)

Well, surely an all time high has to be of some significance (resistance). I do hold ZFX (B@$11.13) and won't be looking to sell for 12 months+. As you said I will be taking buying opportunities.


----------



## michael_selway (23 October 2006)

silence said:
			
		

> Well, surely an all time high has to be of some significance (resistance). I do hold ZFX (B@$11.13) and won't be looking to sell for 12 months+. As you said I will be taking buying opportunities.




Hi Silence, just wondering do you keep and eye on LME prices and On warrant?

http://www.kitcometals.com

thx

MS


----------



## Kipp (23 October 2006)

Jay-684 said:
			
		

> closed on its all time high - $13.60
> 
> any ideas what this could mean in terms of resistance? positive or negative?
> 
> I'd be thinking positive provided it moves past it in the coming days



Jay- I'm no great techie but I've been watching ZFX very closely near the 13.50 resistance line.  The vol was pretty weak today (1.9 mill) but I'd still expect a breakout tomorrow/wed.  Next line of resistance I'd assume $14.20 (this prediction is a bit random- but I'm going on support/resistance line for ZFX have roughly been 70cents apart).
Hopefully Kennas or another t/a will post a chart for us to cheat of!!!


----------



## Sean K (24 October 2006)

I think the real resistance was around $12.00. There was some at $13.50 as we've seen the past 4 days. Sitting at $13.60 now, but hasn't held above long enough to have truly 'broken through' imo. Needs 3 days ish. Finishing at it's high was very positive but as Kipp said lower volume than normal. Zinc off 2% overnight so it might pull back to $13.50. If it holds there, we might see that set as a new support level, but I think around $12.00 will prove to be the most solid line of support in the coming weeks, then $11.00 if things go pear shaped. It's ran pretty hard since late Sep. Taking out the April/May abberation, it's trending up nicely. As far as projections go, it's blue sky above $13.60, who knows....It's trading on a PE of around 6, so there's plenty of scope for it to rise further, especially if POZ keeps going up up and away. On the other hand...


----------



## Damuzzdu (24 October 2006)

kennas said:
			
		

> I think the real resistance was around $12.00. There was some at $13.50 as we've seen the past 4 days. Sitting at $13.60 now, but hasn't held above long enough to have truly 'broken through' imo. Needs 3 days ish. Finishing at it's high was very positive but as Kipp said lower volume than normal. Zinc off 2% overnight so it might pull back to $13.50.




I think today's action will be interesting. Vol yesterday was very low and not all convincing. The rate of increase seems to be slowing. If ZFX stalls at these prices, this will make short-term traders get more anxious as the days go by and eventually it will be subject to profit taking, that is where the long term investors (like me) can then take advantage of lower prices.

I'm with you Kennas in that resistance was around $12.00 mark, although I think $12.35 mark was the real resistance point, and it seems to have over come that mark. 

Cheers
Muzz


----------



## Kipp (24 October 2006)

POZ... I like it kennas- Gen Y speak...
According to yahoo finance ZFX QTRly due out today- keep an eye out for it.  Surely all of their random exploration across Australia (30 Mill per year with a handful of different JBV partners) is due for something soon.


----------



## Damuzzdu (24 October 2006)

Kipp said:
			
		

> POZ... I like it kennas- Gen Y speak...
> According to yahoo finance ZFX QTRly due out today- keep an eye out for it.  Surely all of their random exploration across Australia (30 Mill per year with a handful of different JBV partners) is due for something soon.




Kipp,

Yahoo dates are wrong...click on the link from the companies website.

http://www.zinifex.com/index.aspx?link_id=16.802

Report is due on Thursday before market opens.

Cheers
Muzz


----------



## michael_selway (24 October 2006)

kennas said:
			
		

> It's trading on a PE of around 6, so there's plenty of scope for it to rise further, especially if POZ keeps going up up and away. On the other hand...




Kennas, what do u think might make the price of Zinc fall atm?

thx

MS


----------



## Sean K (24 October 2006)

michael_selway said:
			
		

> Kennas, what do u think might make the price of Zinc fall atm?
> 
> thx
> 
> MS




MS, can only be supply demand evening out. I don't know enough about international zinc production and consumption to know if supply is going to catch up, I just go off what is written in the newspapers.   

Is there ANY chance that supply can catch up to demand in the forseable future? 

The old chestnut - US recession, China slow down, blah blah, must be a possible cause?? But even if that happens, how long before it really effects POZ?


----------



## Kipp (24 October 2006)

Damuzzdu said:
			
		

> Kipp,
> 
> Yahoo dates are wrong...click on the link from the companies website.
> 
> ...



Dammit- sorry all.. yahoo is a bit sketchy I admit... but still ok for charting.
At leat I was right about JVs... BSM Hellyer results released today.  Having trouble reading though (stupid computer!) I'll try posting it later.


----------



## nizar (24 October 2006)

kennas said:
			
		

> MS, can only be supply demand evening out. I don't know enough about international zinc production and consumption to know if supply is going to catch up, I just go off what is written in the newspapers.
> 
> Is there ANY chance that supply can catch up to demand in the forseable future?
> 
> The old chestnut - US recession, China slow down, blah blah, must be a possible cause?? But even if that happens, how long before it really effects POZ?




2008
but if your looking long long term, century is the worlds 2nd biggest zinc mine and its gone in 7 years so i wonder what that will do to the spot price? WHat will replace it? UCL's project in Iran?? LOL i doubt that project can ever get off the ground!

AIM i reckon is another one to look at. There production will be coming when zinc supplies will be severely depleted in 9 months time.


----------



## michael_selway (24 October 2006)

nizar said:
			
		

> 2008
> but if your looking long long term, century is the worlds 2nd biggest zinc mine and its gone in 7 years so i wonder what that will do to the spot price? WHat will replace it? UCL's project in Iran?? LOL i doubt that project can ever get off the ground!
> 
> AIM i reckon is another one to look at. There production will be coming when zinc supplies will be severely depleted in 9 months time.




What about Dugald River in QLD? ZFX lookign to explore there?











thx

MS


----------



## nizar (24 October 2006)

ms have u got that table but with the zinc mine owners (companies as well) obiously that would help a bit


----------



## rederob (24 October 2006)

nizar said:
			
		

> ms have u got that table but with the zinc mine owners (companies as well) obiously that would help a bit




Some idea of recent industry views on supply and demand, including charts:

http://www.ilzsg.org/pdf/LisbonOutlook.ppt#264,11,Lead Metal Western World Balance


----------



## imajica (24 October 2006)

why the afternoon sell down in ZFX?


you would think there would be a fair bit of anticipation for Thursday's quarterly

26 October -  Release of September Quarter Review


----------



## pacer (24 October 2006)

Clack the CHAMPANGE glasses at $14, 20+.....about time we had some profit takers......Still above previous low....$15 not that far away....and KZL is rising too.....minor sellers to our big profits......Suckers!.....I'm still holding!

Inventories still low and will take 2 years to make a dent in it...DYOR

Possibly trying to lower the price to get better value Imjica,,,,,saw day traders killing us to think a trend was imenant...they baisicaly got punished......there was plenty of support.....Watching closely tomorrow but I would buy at anything less than $13.35....recon it will hit a high tomorrow, just to piss off the panic sellers....lol....

It was a small down....you have to have one to get an *up*.....

This is not advice...only an opinion...and I just had 7 tripple bourbons!.....DYOR


----------



## michael_selway (24 October 2006)

imajica said:
			
		

> why the afternoon sell down in ZFX?
> 
> 
> you would think there would be a fair bit of anticipation for Thursday's quarterly
> ...




i dont think the quarterly has anything to expect, its all about zinc price now and maybe the DOW

thx

MS


----------



## Out Too Soon (25 October 2006)

pacer said:
			
		

> recon it will hit a high tomorrow, just to piss off the panic sellers....lol....
> 
> It was a small down....you have to have one to get an *up*.....
> 
> This is not advice...only an opinion...and I just had 7 tripple bourbons!.....DYOR



So right again Pacer  
& I thought alcohol destroyed brain cells :


----------



## chicken (25 October 2006)

Looking great...$14 woooow.....even Chicken never thought it will go as high...but I congratulate anyone who looked and saw when I posted....I still own quite a few of these...cheers


----------



## michael_selway (25 October 2006)

chicken said:
			
		

> Looking great...$14 woooow.....even Chicken never thought it will go as high...but I congratulate anyone who looked and saw when I posted....I still own quite a few of these...cheers




peak hasnt been reached yet on LME imo, so 14 isnt high at all

thx

MS


----------



## nizar (25 October 2006)

michael_selway said:
			
		

> 14 isnt high at all




finally somebody on the same page as me
all time highs, blue skies now


----------



## pacer (25 October 2006)

Out Too Soon said:
			
		

> So right again Pacer
> & I thought alcohol destroyed brain cells :





Burp!!!!!


Click my background posts.....I do ok after a few bourbons.....NWR for you speccy traders!

lol....made over grand today.....resmed RMD, on breakout (Thanks to DR DOOM)...ZFX and Kzl......and 4k in the last fortnight....well just look at the graph and invenories.

You can be a UNIT and win.....OTS....diddn't wake up till 12.30....and had the hair of the dog.....and a hanful of panadols

OTS ru still in?


----------



## pacer (25 October 2006)

pacer said:
			
		

> Clack the CHAMPANGE glasses at $14, 20+.....about time we had some profit takers......Still above previous low....$15 not that far away....and KZL is rising too.....minor sellers to our big profits......Suckers!.....I'm still holding!
> 
> Inventories still low and will take 2 years to make a dent in it...DYOR
> 
> ...




Re posting....for the hell of it!!!!


----------



## michael_selway (25 October 2006)

pacer said:
			
		

> Re posting....for the hell of it!!!!




what shars do u currently hold pacer atm (if you dont mind me asking)   

thx

MS


----------



## pacer (25 October 2006)

Easy to find out...just click my name and read current posts.....and I definitely hold no WPL

But ....KZL/ZFX  long cfd's

NWR,NMS,SLA....and NEO...the dog!....

NWR will be retirement fund....the rest are ok...bar NEO......The junior oiler is my nemisis.....might just buy some more at this price to punnish myself....the trend is your friend.....I thought 1.8c was a good price!....burp!
:


----------



## Damuzzdu (25 October 2006)

Looks my $14.00 top might be a bad call, oh well not too bad.

Good earner for me, and this goes with a nice little AR in OXR...

Still think that ZFX will be subject to profit takers soon, as this type rise tends to end in tears so I will be looking for any type of retracement to lock in those profits. 

This is not to say I'll be out of ZFX for long, just a pause ready for the run to $20.00 and beyond by the middle of 07.

Qtrly out in morning...

Cheers


----------



## Out Too Soon (25 October 2006)

Hi, I'm certainly holding on for the ride thx Pacer, I called myself Out Too Soon too keep reminding myself of past mistakes. Of cause this one I was In Too Late, maybe should pay more attn to Chicken when she starts squawkin :


----------



## michael_selway (25 October 2006)

Out Too Soon said:
			
		

> Hi, I'm certainly holding on for the ride thx Pacer, I called myself Out Too Soon too keep reminding myself of past mistakes. Of cause this one I was In Too Late, maybe should pay more attn to Chicken when she starts squawkin :




When were u in ZFX?

thx

MS


----------



## nizar (25 October 2006)

michael_selway said:
			
		

> When were u in ZFX?
> 
> thx
> 
> MS




Out too soon,

even if u got in a $14 its still early stages for this company. by the end of next year i personally i expect ZFX to double?
so then why dont i hold ZFX?? coz the stocks that i got will more than double   

nice divvy from ZFX coming up makes it a stand out though, the best on asx100. it will be in asx50 soon, i think in market cap terms its already there, just waiting for the next quarterly rebalance and that will see the fund managers dip in.


----------



## michael_selway (25 October 2006)

nizar said:
			
		

> so then why dont i hold ZFX?? coz the stocks that i got will more than double




Which stocks might that be?   

thx

MS


----------



## pacer (25 October 2006)

THE BEST SAYING ....it's never to late to get in on a bull run....or a bear market....trade to your limits and not to your EGO!!!!


----------



## johnmwu3 (26 October 2006)

Zinifex positive after production falls
Email Print Normal font Large font October 26, 2006 - 10:15AM

Advertisement
AdvertisementMajor lead and zinc producer Zinifex Ltd has predicted strong zinc prices for the rest of the financial year, after posting lower first quarter production due to maintenance issues.

Zinifex chief executive officer Greig Gailey said zinc prices are being supported by tight supply and continued strong demand, particularly from China.

"We remain confident about the outlook for both zinc and lead prices and believe that the supply and demand fundamentals will remain robust," Mr Gailey said.

"Accordingly, we are optimistic for another good financial year for Zinifex."

Lead and zinc hit new highs on Wednesday night with the three month zinc for delivery closing at $US4,040 a tonne on the London Metal Exchange after touching a record $US4,140.

Lead followed suit, recording a new contract high at $US1,590 and closing at $US1,585.

During the September quarter, Zinifex produced 343,250 tonnes of lead and zinc, down from 392,421 tonnes in same period last year, and down from 396,612 tonnes in the June quarter.

Mr Gailey said output was affected by a planned 14-day shutdown of the Century mine concentrator in Queensland, the longest in the mine's history, and lower lead grades.

"Total concentrate output for the September quarter, therefore, fell against the previous quarter and the corresponding quarter last year as anticipated," he said.

"Zinc metal output from our refineries for the September quarter exceeded performance for both the previous quarter and the corresponding quarter last," Mr Gailey said.

"This was driven by near record zinc production at our Hobart and Budel refineries.

However, Zinifex said lead metal production for the September quarter was down on both the prior quarter and corresponding quarter last year due to the 1-in-20 year shutdown at our Port Pirie facility.

"We expect Port Pirie to recover most of these losses over the balance of the financial year," Mr Gailey said.

"Concentrate and metal output is expected to return to more normal levels for the remainder of this financial year, however, we do not expect to fully compensate for the lower concentrate tonnages in the first quarter."

Meanwhile, high electricity prices in the Netherlands continue to dog Zinifex's Budel refinery.

"Although electricity prices in the Netherlands moderated somewhat during the September quarter in line with global oil prices, they remain uncompetitive," Mr Gailey said.

Zinifex said it was in negotiations with various electrical producers in order to address the problem.


----------



## nizar (26 October 2006)

michael_selway said:
			
		

> Which stocks might that be?
> 
> thx
> 
> MS




KZL, CBH, OMC, EVE 
AIM is the potential dark horse from the pack

The above are not recommendations or financial advice. Please consult a professional financial advisor and/or do your own research before investing.


----------



## Sean K (26 October 2006)

nizar said:
			
		

> KZL, CBH, OMC, EVE
> AIM is the potential dark horse from the pack
> 
> The above are not recommendations or financial advice. Please consult a professional financial advisor and/or do your own research before investing.




Isn't OMC a uranium stock?


----------



## nizar (26 October 2006)

yeh bro i didnt say it was only the zinc stocks i hold that will double (in my opinion only, that said im having a pretty good run this year!)


----------



## Kipp (26 October 2006)

Vol doesn't really to matter for ZFX hey Kennas???  Seems to breakout even on just a trade of 5 mill.... reminds me of something Richkid once said "that volume is one of the worst indicators to trade by"... sure seems to be the case here.  (CBH seems to live by volume though)...

Pacer, don't waste all of you money on Bourbon...


----------



## nizar (27 October 2006)

Kipp said:
			
		

> Vol doesn't really to matter for ZFX hey Kennas???  Seems to breakout even on just a trade of 5 mill.... reminds me of something Richkid once said "that volume is one of the worst indicators to trade by"... sure seems to be the case here.  (CBH seems to live by volume though)...
> 
> Pacer, don't waste all of you money on Bourbon...




KZL also doesnt need volume to move also.
The top 20 holding 75% probably helps.
K Robinson MD owns >5% of the company, now aint that a great incentive to create "shareholder value". if you're reading this, keep up the great work son, LOL


----------



## pacer (27 October 2006)

Thanks for the tip Kipp,
This is one awesome trip.
I'll buy more bourbon,
If this keeps movin'.

Holding ZFX and KZL,
But when to sell.
There is no reason.
Hold till Xmas season?

This is blue sky,
We all know why.
Will it end soon,
Or reach the moon?

Thanks all you guys for you help here.......and will stay off the booze for a bit...I promise.
Hoped you liked the poem...just made it up.


----------



## nizar (27 October 2006)

pacer said:
			
		

> Thanks for the tip Kipp,
> This is one awesome trip.
> I'll buy more bourbon,
> If this keeps movin'.
> ...




You hold until next Xmas and i suspect u will be a very happy man


----------



## dlineinvestor (27 October 2006)

ZFX is having a great run thats for sure, We all know if LME stockpiles lift the price of zinc could do the opposite, other than company problems/costs what other factors can make the SP drop.
All comments appreciated

Holding ZFX and KZL


----------



## MiningGuru (27 October 2006)

ZFX will be touchin $20 in the Xmas, New Year rally

Mark my words!

Mining Guru


----------



## Nicks (27 October 2006)

Hi All

have a look at my related post on OXR. I hold ZFX and OXR and I think the issues affecting production while helping ZFX should actually help others like OXR doubly more. Next year should be a golden year for ZFX and OXR.


----------



## YELNATS (27 October 2006)

dlineinvestor said:
			
		

> ZFX is having a great run thats for sure, We all know if LME stockpiles lift the price of zinc could do the opposite, other than company problems/costs what other factors can make the SP drop.
> All comments appreciated
> 
> Holding ZFX and KZL




Also, what could make LME stockpiles lift? A reduction in demand and/or an increase in supply? Which is more likely, or are both quite unlikely over the next 1 to 2 years?

Hold ZFX, but missed the boat with KZL, so far. Regards YN.


----------



## Fab (27 October 2006)

ZFX is still very very cheap on a P/E base and zinc inventory are very low so even though it went up quite a  lot it should keep rising


----------



## Out Too Soon (27 October 2006)

Pacer I think we'll have a few months beyond christmas a dip for a while then similar ride this time next year (I hope)  
Scotch or Mekong for me tho. Mekong, Thailands magic drop. 
Maybe Oxiana could offer me a job next time I'm in Thailand or Laos, I can speak both.


----------



## Fab (27 October 2006)

It does not look like it is going to stop anytime soon to me. Supply and demand will keep driving up this stock


----------



## MiningGuru (27 October 2006)

nizar said:
			
		

> Yeh true and CBH have Toho zinc with about 24%, making both KZL and CBH hard to buy. But i think btw ZFX, KZL, and CBH there will be some sort of corporate play before the end of the year.
> 
> I have a good mate of mine works for KPMG Accounting, they handle all the accounts for ZFX, and him and his mates reckon ZFX, with all the cash they have, and their EXEMPLARY debt levels, are on the look out and have done the figures on a number of prospects. They've have brought their tax losses forward which may indicate they are gonna buy another business. CBH is the first company that came to mind. ZFX want Endeavour back! as it used to belong to Pasminco before it went bust, its one the few assets that ZFX didnt pick up.




I think that MLS could be a cheap zinc stock that could suit ZFX

Who knows?


----------



## nizar (27 October 2006)

Fab said:
			
		

> ZFX is still very very cheap on a P/E base and zinc inventory are very low so even though it went up quite a  lot it should keep rising




i thought u said it would top out at around $14?
let me guess - u turned bullish because now you are in?


----------



## Fab (27 October 2006)

Nizar,

Correct I am now in and I did believe that actually $13.50 was a resistance point which was a mistake. Like anybody else I make mistake and I am happy to admit it otherwise I would probably already be a millionaire. Hopefully ZFX has still some legs to run


----------



## nizar (28 October 2006)

Analysis of 1Q07 by Wesptac Broking

*Event*

A 14 day planned shutdown and lower grades at Century saw mined zinc production fall 11% to 114.5kt against 4Q06. Similarly lead output fell 27% to 12.4kt primarily due to grades. 

Rosebery zinc production of 22.3kt was in line with 4Q06. 

Group production of smelted zinc was up 3.5% to 160.4kt with near record performance from Hobart and Budel. Output at the smaller Clarksville smelter fell before planned maintenance in 2Q07. 

Smelted lead production fell 48% to 32.2kt with a 1 in 20 year planned shutdown at Port Pirie taking 49 days. ZFX expects most of the lost output to be recovered in FY07. 

Drilling near Century returned positive results. Rosebery made further high grade intersections including 9m @ 2.3% lead, 9.4% zinc, 0.1% copper, 63.3g/t silver and 0.7g/t gold. 

*Impact*

Despite 1Q07 production being softer than expected, we upgrade our FY07 NPAT forecast 12% to $1.49bn after lifting the FY07 zinc price 11% to US$1.52/lb. Assumed higher operating costs partially offset. Our FY08 NPAT forecast similarly rises 5.7% to $1.04bn. With buoyant cashflow and a strong balance sheet, we expect more cash to be returned to shareholders. Dividend estimates are lifted accordingly. 

Our valuation increases marginally to $9.75 a share. Reduced cash following the payment of a 70c dividend and mildly disappointing 1Q07 production is offset by higher short term zinc prices and the inclusion of a nominal $200m for Dugald River. Long term assumptions of US$0.70/lb zinc, US$0.41/lb lead, an A$/US$ exchange rate of 0.76 and a 10% discount rate remain. 

*ZFX is highly leveraged to zinc and lead. At spot prices of US$1.85/lb zinc and US$0.72/lb lead, our valuation rises to an incredible $30.00 a share. * 

*Recommendation Impact*

We downgrade our recommendation from Hold to Reduce due to share price appreciation. Risk tolerant, short term orientated investors may hold for further potential gains from buoyant zinc prices. LME stocks remain tight and falling, with potential for a short term supply squeeze due to strong demand and mining constraints.

(note: their intrinsic valuation is based on us$0.40/lb lead and us$0.70/lb zinc. Yeh, i know, what a joke)


----------



## Brasidas (30 October 2006)

There is a good discussion of the next "nickel" sector - zinc - in this week's Minesite weekly roundup which is here in full.

That Was The Week That Was … In Australia 

By Our Man In Oz

Minews. Good morning Australia, another week, another record?

Oz. It certainly was for some stocks, especially those selling zinc and nickel to the steel industry. You probably saw the same reports we did down this way, that the world has almost run out of zinc, and the nickel price is showing no sign of retreating from its astonishingly high levels. The end result, naturally, is that zinc stocks such as Zinifex (ZFX), Perilya (PEM), CBH (CBH), Kagara (KZL) and Terramin (TZN) have moved into the stratosphere, joining the nickel brigade who where already up there.

Minews. A few price examples please?

Oz. Zinifex hit a 12-month high of A$15.05 during Friday trade, before settling back to close the week at A$14.65, a gain of A$1.14 (8.4 per cent), Perilya was up A70 cents (20.8 per cent) to A$4.05, down a fraction on its 12-month high of A$4.10 reached on Thursday and Friday. Kagara also set a 12-month high on Friday of A$7.34, before easing back to A$7.21, still up A82 cents (12.8 per cent). CBH, which received a severe setback at this time last year with a stope collapse in its Endeavour mine, was up A5.5 cents (8.8 per cent) to A67.5 cents, also a modest retreat from its high of A73.5 cents set on Thursday. Terramin, which is developing a small zinc mine close to Adelaide in South Australia, was up A14 cents (8.9 per cent) to A$1.70, down from a Thursday high of A$1.75.

Minews. And the nickel sector was strong again?

Oz. Yes, but not to the same extent as the zincs. Jubilee (JBM), which held its annual meeting during the week and said takeovers were off its agenda, was up a modest A20 cents (1.6 per cent) to A$12.60, down on its cracking start to the week when the stock hit a 12-month high of A$12.98. Western Areas (WSA) put on A25 cents (7.4 per cent) to close the week at A$3.64, also down from its 12-month high of A$3.79 set on Tuesday, and Minara (MRE) was up A11 cents (2.2 per cent) to A$5.20, which was some distance behind its 12-month high of A$5.55 set last week.

Minews. It looks from those price movements that the nickel sector is awfully close to a peak?

Oz. It would seem that way. It also seems to be the same with a number of the stocks exposed to the bulk end of the market where the future direction of iron ore and coal prices is being questioned. There were no dramatic falls, but the rises were modest, and not helped by a bit of corporate fiddling. Aztec Resources (AZR), which has been struggling with a takeover bid from rival Mt Gibson (MGX), and the sudden discovery of a royalty on its Koolan Island iron ore project, which it forgot to tell everyone about, resumed trading after a period in the sin bin, but hardly inspired. Volume was high on Thursday and Friday but the price only moved between A23 cents and A24 cents. There might be more to come on that royalty fiasco. Aztec’s takeover suitor, Mt Gibson, was treated more harshly, dropping A1.5 cents (2 per cent) to A70.5 cents. At the top end of the iron ore hopefuls, Fortescue Metals (FMG) returned to favour with a A78 cents (8.8 per cent) rise over the week to close at A$9.58.

Minews. And presumably your uranium stocks were hot after the production problems in Canada?

Oz. A strong week for that sector with most stocks trending up. Paladin (PDN) reached a 12-month high on Wednesday of A$6, but then fell away quite sharply to close on Friday at A$5.46, which was still up A54 cents (11 per cent) on the week. Pepinnini (PNN) also set a new high mark, trading up to A75 cents on Friday before easing back to close at A73 cents, still up A5 cents (7.4 per cent) for the week.

Minews. Much on the downside?

Oz. Very little, even the gold sector, which has been a bit of a laggard, managed to deliver some strong performances. Agincourt (AGC) reported good drill results from its Calais prospect near Wiluna and gained another A5 cents (4 per cent) to A$1.25. More importantly, last weeks’ rise took the gain over the past nine trading days to A25 cents (25 per cent). The only fall really worth noting was Consolidated Minerals (CSM) which dropped A10 cents (4.2 per cent) to A$2.30 as the takeover frenzy which gripped the stock earlier in the month seemed to run out of puff.

http://www.minesite.com/storyFull5.php?storySeq=3894


----------



## pacer (30 October 2006)

Verry happy I diddn't sell on friday!

this is interesting...
http://www.theaustralian.news.com.au/story/0,20867,19716193-12342,00.html

Takeover bid would have to be around 60% premium....I hope it gets a bid!


----------



## nizar (30 October 2006)

pacer said:
			
		

> Verry happy I diddn't sell on friday!
> 
> this is interesting...
> http://www.theaustralian.news.com.au/story/0,20867,19716193-12342,00.html
> ...




that article was written 8th of july
ZFX is a winner, nothing wrong with locking in profits of course, but IMO theres a long, long way to go with this one...

at zinc spot of us$1.85/lb westpac valuation is $30 a share. And zinc will go much higher than that, i wont be suprised to see us$2.85/lb in 6 or so months time...


----------



## pacer (30 October 2006)

Correct Nizar...diddnt look at the date...was emailed to me by a friend....Price was only $10.50 then....so we have a 34% premium already on that price....another RIPPER of a day...up 5% and rising slightly.....*AWESOME!*


----------



## silence (30 October 2006)

I'm interested in knowing, is there anyone here who bought these early on, like $5 or less and still holds them? You'd be laughing.......


----------



## Nicks (30 October 2006)

silence said:
			
		

> I'm interested in knowing, is there anyone here who bought these early on, like $5 or less and still holds them? You'd be laughing.......




I grabbed some just over 4 weeks ago at 10.80 to 11.00.

I got OXR at the same time and am still buying on that. It still hasnt taken off just yet.


----------



## rwkni1 (30 October 2006)

silence said:
			
		

> I'm interested in knowing, is there anyone here who bought these early on, like $5 or less and still holds them? You'd be laughing.......




Yup, got these suckers at $2.30 around Dec 04, have thought about selling on numerous occaisions, but since that date LME zinc stocks have continued to drop at a fairly predictable rate - until that changes i think i'll continue to hold.


----------



## Damuzzdu (30 October 2006)

Below is link from Greg Gailey (CEO) of our company.

It is a darn good read and shows what they are thinking. It gives a good analysis as to what ZFX believe might happen to supply and demand over the next years. 

http://www.zinifex.com/Index.aspx?link_id=16.960

It is two parts, one the speech the other the slides.

This together with what was said in the Annual report and i think there is little doubt as to where the management want to take ZFX. They are not going to try to be a BHP or RIO, but a niche player.

The money they are expending in the next few yrs exploring is where the prize is. If they happen to find another century in and around where the mine is now, and that is not totally of the question, the market will slowly re-price ZFX to something that I do not think we can even think about.

Just thought I would pen this down re P/E and next yrs profit. If you take a really close look at some of the predictions for 06/07 profit most are coming up in the range of $1.3b-$1.4B. Now if you pull apart the the accounts ie split the year into two you will see that ZFX made $853M in the last half of 05/06. There are some tax effects there, so we need to be careful when looking at the number. 

LY profit wasachieved with the Zn spot price at ave $1.00/lb across the whole yr.(my guess). The spot is now $1.90, with ave for 06/07 somewhere prob. around $1.50 or so; maybe higher. Now that is 50% higher than FY0506. Lead has also been doing well. Run this thru the calculator and you get c$1.1B for just one half year. Ok there might higher charges, labour electricity, tax and production is going to be down slightly so lets say $1B double it up and you get $2B, that is EPS of $5/share. That will make fwd P/E 4.1. P/E tonite based on LY results is now at 7. Take the $5/share x 7 and you get $35.00, sometime in September 07. Try it with OXR's P/E and you get something that is well I'll let you work that out..............

Can this all go wrong? Yes the Zn price might crash but we are 4 months into this financial yr and prices that ZFX gets for its products run 4 months behind. So that really means we are in "feb 07" as to pricing.

Hope this did not lose you too much.  
Cheers


----------



## Jay-684 (30 October 2006)

silence said:
			
		

> I'm interested in knowing, is there anyone here who bought these early on, like $5 or less and still holds them? You'd be laughing.......




purchased for $3.30 but then sold for $11.80

recently bought back in for $10.80 though (and still collected the div)

it is a nice thought knowing you purchased them for only ~5x  the current div amount!


----------



## pacer (31 October 2006)

ZFX and KZL took a breather today ready for the next run, hopefuly up though.

Any reason for them to fall?......I don't think inventories have risen....it sounds like it will be 2008 before supply overtakes demand, and then only slightly to bring inventories up slowly, unless ofcourse demand increases then it may be even longer, especialy with Chinese, Indian, ect. growth rates.

So zinc realy has only one way to go till then....I'll let you lot work it out.

I think it was panicy traders taking a profit and a lack of volume from the big players....I expect more profits to come, but perhaps not at such an over heated pace......see you at $17 for xmas is my guesstimate, then I can afford a month off playing this silly game...hehe


----------



## clowboy (31 October 2006)

Pacer what makes you think things will slow down?
At the end of the day I have no way of telling the future any better than anyone else but I can't see any brakes on this train,  Zinc back up to $1.9278 in early trade.


----------



## pacer (31 October 2006)

Clowboy....

It's been my experience that stocks can get over heated and suffer as a concequence....I think 2 days of 4.5 and 5% in a row can mean trouble for the SP very short term, but I don't believe we will see a down turn, just a slowing of the % rises each day over the next few days/weeks.

Personaly I want to see 10% rises each day for the next 2 months!

Go you good thing!!!!.............


----------



## nizar (31 October 2006)

pacer said:
			
		

> ZFX and KZL took a breather today ready for the next run, hopefuly up though.
> 
> Any reason for them to fall?......I don't think inventories have risen....it sounds like it will be 2008 before supply overtakes demand, and then only slightly to bring inventories up slowly, unless ofcourse demand increases then it may be even longer, especialy with Chinese, Indian, ect. growth rates.




LOL KZL has gone up for the last 13 days, and it goes down by 2% and u are complaining?? come on bro, seriously. If someone was to offer me 25% in 2 weeks and then a 1.8% retrace i would grab it for both hands...

That stock is a BEAUTY... and i appreciate all the $$$$$ its bringing for me... we couldnt have asked for a better performance from KZL...

As for ZFX, they achieved 41% of the revenue of FY2006 from ONE QUARTER and that was when Century was closed for a bit and production was down... HMmmmm what will happen when production is back to normal and the zinc price is even higher. Well my call is $2.5billion in NPAT for the big one this year...


----------



## nizar (31 October 2006)

ZFX - Credit Suisse rates the stock as Outperform
BROKER NEWS - 31/10/2006 


The broker notes an update from management indicated the Century Mine life could be extended by as much as five years thanks to the current exploration program, which would add about 3% to NPV.
As a result, it expects the perception of the company lacking growth will slowly change. 

Target price is $19.72.Current Price is $15.46. Difference: $4.26 - (brackets indicate current price is over target). If ZFX meets the Credit Suisse target it will return approximately 22% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).


----------



## CanOz (31 October 2006)

nizar said:
			
		

> ZFX - Credit Suisse rates the stock as Outperform
> BROKER NEWS - 31/10/2006
> 
> 
> ...




I guess you like ZFX too


----------



## clowboy (31 October 2006)

Nizar,

What price are you using for Zinc for a 2.5 billion NPAT?

Broker reports are still using 90c LMAO.

One report did mention that if zinc held out at current spot ($1.80+) then ZFX is valued at more like $30 per share.

What if zinc goes on to $3 a pound?  It's always a possiblilty.


----------



## michael_selway (31 October 2006)

nizar said:
			
		

> ZFX - Credit Suisse rates the stock as Outperform
> BROKER NEWS - 31/10/2006
> 
> 
> ...




Target price 19.72. absolutely amazing!

thx

MS


----------



## nizar (31 October 2006)

clowboy said:
			
		

> Nizar,
> 
> What price are you using for Zinc for a 2.5 billion NPAT?
> 
> ...




Clowboy, they earnt $1.08billion NPAT and that was based on average zinc price of USD2105/tonne (!!) I dont think many people realise this. Thats US97c/lb.

If zinc averages USD4400/tonne which is us$2/lb (and its likely to be higher) their NPAT will be $2.3billion.

If zinc spikes to $3/lb which is probable (IMO) in the next 6 months then u will not believe how the zinifex sp will go, i cant put a figure on it coz obviously that would just be pure speculation, but i think it will be amazing.

Im probably the most bullish non-holder of this stock that is out there.

At the very minimum $2billion NPAT and $2/share dividend is likely.

BUt if they increase century mine life then it mite even get a re-rating completely.

MS - learn to *think big*. $19.72 will soon be very cheap for this stock.


----------



## insider (31 October 2006)

michael_selway said:
			
		

> Target price 19.72. absolutely amazing!
> 
> thx
> 
> MS



How long should we hold this stick for to reach a target of 19... I spotted this stock at 7 dollars... could have made a pretty penny


----------



## clowboy (31 October 2006)

most bullish non-holder?

I thought you held ZFX?


----------



## nizar (31 October 2006)

clowboy said:
			
		

> most bullish non-holder?
> 
> I thought you held ZFX?




No only KZL and CBH for me. But still a huge fan, as u can tell.

Its been kind to me in the past.


----------



## michael_selway (1 November 2006)

insider said:
			
		

> How long should we hold this stick for to reach a target of 19... I spotted this stock at 7 dollars... could have made a pretty penny




yeah end is a good possibility imo

http://www.basemetals.com/stocks.aspx

Just need to keep an eye on LME on warrant stocks

Earnings and Dividends Forecast (cents per share) 
2006 2007 2008 2009 
EPS 219.9 296.8 238.1 137.5 
DPS 80.0 131.3 102.8 69.0 

EPS(c) PE Growth 
Year Ending 30-06-07 296.8 5.2 35.0% 
Year Ending 30-06-08 238.1 6.5 -19.8% 

thx

MS


----------



## Damuzzdu (1 November 2006)

nizar said:
			
		

> ......they earnt $1.08billion NPAT and that was based on average zinc price of USD2105/tonne (!!) I dont think many people realise this. Thats US97c/lb.
> 
> If zinc averages USD4400/tonne which is us$2/lb (and its likely to be higher) their NPAT will be $2.3billion.
> 
> At the very minimum $2billion NPAT and $2/share dividend is likely.



Nizar,

I think it will very hard for ZFX to achieve ave price of US$2.00/lb across the whole of 06/07 financial year. As I said in my previous post the price that is in the market now is the price that ZFX gets to sell its products in around 4 months time. We are not yet at $2.00/lb so to ave $2.00/lb is just not on, IMHO. Maybe in 07/08????

As you rightly said they ave $0.97/lb last yr, yet Zn finished at $US1.63/lb at the end of June. It was only since Feb 06 that the price really spiked and thus revenues will be in this financial year.

Your $2.3B NPAT is certainly at the high end, but i agree yr $2Bill NPAT being aroud the mark. This is about the number i'm coming up with, maybe a touch less. It will depend on how ZFX treat the tax losses.

In my last post I stated that with profit of $2bill, EPS would be $5/share. This is of course incorrect.  I had a figure of 400 mill. shares on issue in my head to get to that figure. Of course there 487 mill shares on issue, so it knocks the EPS down $4.13/share for 06/07. Mad at myself for making such a silly error like that. Sorry.

Using tonites p/e of 6.9, this would put a valuation of  ZFX at Sept 07 of $28.49.

Cheers


----------



## rederob (1 November 2006)

Damuzzdu
You might be right on the average price issue, but I will place my faith in a figure beyond $2.
Take a look at copper prices a year ago exactly, and compare them to June 30 this year, after the copper price collapsed: Moved from $1.75 to $3.40 - almost doubled.
Do not be surprised to see zinc with a "3" immediately after the dollar sign, next year.


----------



## stoxclimber (1 November 2006)

We're getting close to the US$2/lb level (currently 1.9548/ +3.23%) with lead up 2.51%. Looks like we'll all make some more profit on paper tomorrow...hopefully at least.


----------



## nizar (1 November 2006)

Damuzzdu said:
			
		

> Nizar,
> 
> I think it will very hard for ZFX to achieve ave price of US$2.00/lb across the whole of 06/07 financial year. As I said in my previous post the price that is in the market now is the price that ZFX gets to sell its products in around 4 months time. We are not yet at $2.00/lb so to ave $2.00/lb is just not on, IMHO. Maybe in 07/08????
> 
> ...




Damuzzdu,

What has the zinc price averaged so far since july 1st? My guess is around us$1.60/lb? Its sitting on us$1.96/lb as i type this. If we reach us$2/lb before the end of the year (and its looking increasingly likely that will even happen before end of november) then its game on, as for sure they will increase next year. Coz the supplies are going down daily and even at this level the zinc spot price should be higher. And its good to see finally zinc get rid of following copper lead and going out on its own.

But lets just leave it at that; nobody really knows where the zinc price will go. That forecast is just my (very biased) opinion.

Yes 490million shares for ZFX.

I see you used pe of 6.9. If (or once) ZFX proves up more reserves around Century (its spending big $$ on exploration) to extend the mine-life considerably, you will see the market re-rate ZFX and pay a higher earnings multiple.

But even as it is, their earnings alone should lift the sp to $25++ by this time next year, if not earlier.


----------



## Damuzzdu (1 November 2006)

nizar said:
			
		

> Damuzzdu,
> 
> What has the zinc price averaged so far since july 1st? My guess is around us$1.60/lb?




Nizar,
It depends on which ave you refer to?

From July til now using my data from LME then I get ave $US1.54 or $3445/tonne, but to guage anything re ZFX financials need to use from Feb 06 til now and I get US$1.42 or US$3147/tonne.



			
				nizar said:
			
		

> I see you used pe of 6.9. If (or once) ZFX proves up more reserves around Century (its spending big $$ on exploration) to extend the mine-life considerably, you will see the market re-rate ZFX and pay a higher earnings multiple.




The furthur exploration around the current mine at century is certainly the prize. As Greg Gailey said in his speech that if they were another mine even half the size of century the market would then stop discounting ZFX price for the mine issue and start to rate more like a BHP/RIO or even like OXR. Now even if you use a p/e of 9 (I think BHP current p/e of 9 - bit of guess here but close enuf) then you start to get share price of high $30's maybe even into the low's $40's. That may take some while, but the possibility is there.

Hey np with being biased - I've been on ZFX since about $4.30 traded it quite a few times and made a tidy sum so far, and much more to come.

Cheers
Muzz


----------



## mildew79 (1 November 2006)

Kipp said:
			
		

> Vol doesn't really to matter for ZFX hey Kennas???  Seems to breakout even on just a trade of 5 mill.... reminds me of something Richkid once said "that volume is one of the worst indicators to trade by"... sure seems to be the case here.  (CBH seems to live by volume though)...
> 
> Pacer, don't waste all of you money on Bourbon...





thats because their share price is directly linked to the price of zinc. they are unhedged. great stock!


----------



## MiningGuru (2 November 2006)

Moved up in afternoon after a fall in the morning follwoing the general market.

Shows there is still great demand for this share.

Could easily surge tomorrow depending on what the dow does.


----------



## MiningGuru (3 November 2006)

Look at ZFX go today!

Up over 40c!

This share will surge to around $20 very quickly indeed.

Looks as though some insto's are building stakes


----------



## Out Too Soon (3 November 2006)

Doesn't seem to matter what the DOW is doing at the moment, the DOW is flat slightly negative while zinc & negative don't go together atm. 
Just wish the market would notice another emerging zinc+ play that I hold AAR.


----------



## pacer (3 November 2006)

pacer said:
			
		

> Clowboy....
> 
> It's been my experience that stocks can get over heated and suffer as a concequence....I think 2 days of 4.5 and 5% in a row can mean trouble for the SP very short term, but I don't believe we will see a down turn, just a slowing of the % rises each day over the next few days/weeks.
> 
> ...




Was I right or was I right.....haha...still holding


----------



## Brasidas (6 November 2006)

Some of you are getting too bullish - zinc has a way to go but some of the stocks are getting too far ahead of themselves.  This was discussed in the weekly roundup on Minesite.com with talk of insiders preparing to cash-out.  Take care.  Here is an extract...

That Was The Week That Was … In Australia 

By Our Man In Oz

Minews. Good morning Australia, yet more records?

Oz. Just like the last time we spoke, but a rider this week that says the market might be somewhat stretched, especially when compared with what’s happening elsewhere. The word down this way is that a lot of mining stocks on AIM have run out of puff, and that’s not a good sign for the future of small-to-medium miners in Australia which have really been flying.

Minews. Two or three weeks ago I would have agreed with you. But not so much now  as there are glimmers of light on AIM. Presumably the leaders remain the base metal stocks?

Oz. Very much so. Zinc is red hot, nickel not much cooler, and then we have renewed interest in the energy sector with coal stocks making an impressive return, and uranium stocks warming up as we head towards the big political showdown in April when both the government and opposition are likely to fall into line with pro-uranium policies. Capping off a remarkable week we had tremendous success from a couple of new floats, and waiting in the wings are about 16 more mining floats ready to list.

Minews. That is very interesting as  AIM floats  are down to a trickle, or even less. We might have a look later at who’s in your new float queue, but first a few prices, please?

Oz. You can’t go past the zinc producers, thanks to continued speculation that the world is close to running out of the stuff. Zinifex (ZFX), Perilya (PEM), CBH (CBH) and Kagara (KZL) all reached new 12-month highs during the week. Zinifex traded up to A$15.89 during Friday trade before easing to close the week at $15.88, a gain of A$1.23, or 8.4 per cent. What makes the latest price more noteworthy is that at this time last time Zinifex was trading at A$5.07, meaning the stock has risen by A$10.81 or 213 per cent in 12-months. .. more on minesite.com


----------



## michael_selway (6 November 2006)

Brasidas said:
			
		

> Some of you are getting too bullish - zinc has a way to go but some of the stocks are getting too far ahead of themselves.  This was discussed in the weekly roundup on Minesite.com with talk of insiders preparing to cash-out.  Take care.  Here is an extract...
> 
> That Was The Week That Was … In Australia
> 
> ...




All zinc producers goign crazy atm

thx

MS


----------



## stoxclimber (6 November 2006)

I agree - the zinc sector seems to be overreacted to very modest increases in zinc prices (albeit record highs). When I first bought ZFX I believed it was undervalued based on the PE for the risk of the company & future earnings prospects - now we're seeing the future  earning prospoects increase modestly but these zinc stock prices have risen like zinc has blown out to >2.20 when we're still at 1.95. So while I still feel ZFX is undervalued I think the increased earnings prospects have been overstated by the market for the given increase in zinc, since the fundamental risk of the company is unchanged (i.e. mine life)...

Not sure what to do.


----------



## pacer (6 November 2006)

I'm not sure what to do either....collect more on the price increases or bail out and watch everyone else make the $$$$$$$

A mate asked me if inventories had climbed or the price gone down, and have any new mines opened up in the last few weeks, or expected to anytime soon...Answer- NO.....so why sell any yet?

It's a high place to fall from but there is definitely potential for them to find more zinc......get them drills moving!

This is only a medium term play for me, but I am past my sell point by a huge % so if it was to fall....I cant complain...will have got out with more than I expected.....gogogo you good thing.....


----------



## stoxclimber (6 November 2006)

Zinc prices look like they are about to hit $2 (1.9890 spot) and the inventories, as we know, should hit 100K in the next couple days...hard to sell given that both these events should generate more hype in zinc


----------



## goetzuwe (7 November 2006)

2.086 US $/lb at NY November 06,2006 

now the breah throw is done
we can go in 2007 to 3,00 US $/lb


----------



## goetzuwe (8 November 2006)

I think today at NY we remain under the 100.000 t at stock line.

8:33 NY time 101350t  (yesterday minus  approx 2500t)

this will be a signal more for zfx


----------



## chops_a_must (8 November 2006)

stoxclimber said:
			
		

> I agree - the zinc sector seems to be overreacted to very modest increases in zinc prices (albeit record highs). When I first bought ZFX I believed it was undervalued based on the PE for the risk of the company & future earnings prospects - now we're seeing the future  earning prospoects increase modestly but these zinc stock prices have risen like zinc has blown out to >2.20 when we're still at 1.95.




Well, it looks like it is going to get there before long. Another big rise tonight, with stocks set to run almost completely dry in the first half of next year. I can only see it going up.

The only thing that I can see putting a stop to the rise in zinc stocks, is if China starts exporting again. And that's no certainty. My bet is that it will keep rising until mid next year, anyway.


----------



## pacer (8 November 2006)

pacer said:
			
		

> When are you going to get on?....$15....$17....$18......$20......
> 
> I can feel your buy button getting rubbed alot........you will be to late though and kick yourself later...lol
> 
> You cant say you did the wrong thing if you never played the game....never look back on a missed trade..... just learn from it...or you'll go nuts!!!!




That was 20th OCT, Price $13.50.....I'm so vain to quote myself.....but thought it interesting........I look into my crystal bourbon tumbler to see the future, and it's so bright I gotta wear shades!......lol

US $2/lb just got seriously smashed......$20+ doesn't look that far away or unrealistic by xmas anymore.

I have been a bit stressed over the last 2 weeks, as I have been increasing my holdings to abnormal levels, but this has been too good an oportunity to miss.....hope I haven't p'd to many avid ASF fans off with my ramblings.

Good luck all......


----------



## Fab (8 November 2006)

I thought the same this morning after looking at the LME but it turned at the end of the session and ZFX is down at the moment. I don't believe this trend will continue so, looks to me that a healthy correction anyway


----------



## stoxclimber (8 November 2006)

It didn't really turn down..only a tiny amount.. seems that a major holder are selling out of ZFX judging by the volume vs average volume though.


----------



## chops_a_must (8 November 2006)

It's just nerves to do with interest rates and exports etc.

But with the aussie dollar going up, and no zinc in inventories, they are going to be forced to pay the higher price anyway. So long as the Zinc price goes up, and that's logically the only possibility, then zinifex will continue to go up. It's still got a long way to go.


----------



## chops_a_must (8 November 2006)

After bottoming out at 16.36, it looks like it's coming back with a vengeance.

Up 10 cents in 10 minutes. Few sellers. Don't really know why it went down in the first place.


----------



## pacer (8 November 2006)

Every up needs a down....this could play to the $20 mark..but I'll have to pour another bourbon to confirm that .....lol

All fundies are on track... DONT PANIC!....hitch hickers guide to the galaxy...hehe

I'd be worried if it was 3% down.....buy more today!....ramp...ramp...!!!!!


----------



## stoxclimber (8 November 2006)

was quite suprised to see KZL and ZFX both down given the zinc rise overnight..but thats the market i guess


----------



## michael_selway (8 November 2006)

chops_a_must said:
			
		

> After bottoming out at 16.36, it looks like it's coming back with a vengeance.
> 
> Up 10 cents in 10 minutes. Few sellers. Don't really know why it went down in the first place.




higher interest rates i think

thx

MS


----------



## pacer (8 November 2006)

More likely the Melbourne cup hangover, Mike.....interest rates would increase the cash ZFX has in the bank!....they are one hugely cashed up company and looking for takeover opportunities......but what the heck would I know?...


----------



## chops_a_must (9 November 2006)

pacer said:
			
		

> More likely the Melbourne cup hangover, Mike.....interest rates would increase the cash ZFX has in the bank!....they are one hugely cashed up company and looking for takeover opportunities......but what the heck would I know?...




They are indeed!!

http://www.smh.com.au/news/business...seas-for-growth/2006/11/08/1162661755459.html


----------



## chops_a_must (9 November 2006)

Geez, Zinifex is copping a pounding. Massive profit taking.


----------



## alankew (9 November 2006)

Anyone know if any of the junior explorers mentioned in the article above are listed in Australia.Doesnt mention specific companies


----------



## Fab (9 November 2006)

I believe this is only a vey short term correction because of the overnight Zinc price drop it should go back up as soon as the zinc price resume its upward trend


----------



## chops_a_must (10 November 2006)

People have been picking up some bargains the last few days as Zinc goes on another drive, crazy.


----------



## barney (10 November 2006)

Zinc is up just over $2.06 US lb atm (3.17 am).

DOW is down 19 pts.  Nasdaq is up 14 points


----------



## mre83 (10 November 2006)

Hey where can one go to find updated prices of zinc...?? any good websites..???


----------



## chops_a_must (10 November 2006)

Check out the zinc thread.


----------



## Jay-684 (11 November 2006)

mre83 said:
			
		

> Hey where can one go to find updated prices of zinc...?? any good websites..???




www.kitcometals.com


----------



## pacer (13 November 2006)

A good time to top up?.....I did......at 16.10.....


----------



## stoxclimber (13 November 2006)

getting killed today...I guess people are discounting a zinc crash on the LME tonight...we'll have to wait and see..


----------



## pacer (13 November 2006)

Will zinc drop though? and why?.....good time to top up....but funds are scarce ....damn!


----------



## Fab (13 November 2006)

I think it was expected after friday zinc drop but I believe this will be short lived and provide a very good opportunity to re-enter ZFX. Can't see why ZFX would drop as zinc is in short supply and with almost no reserve left.


----------



## stoxclimber (13 November 2006)

Down 8.25% now!!

Goddamn! It's almost like zinc has already crashed!!


----------



## nizar (13 November 2006)

Fab said:
			
		

> I think it was expected after friday zinc drop but I believe this will be short lived and provide a very good opportunity to re-enter ZFX. Can't see why ZFX would drop as zinc is in short supply and with almost no reserve left.




Note that zinc was also in short supply and reserves were dropping in May when ZFX got absolutely smashed from 13.50 to 8.00.
There are corrections in every bull run.
I'd rather buy on the way up, thanks


----------



## YELNATS (13 November 2006)

stoxclimber said:
			
		

> Down 8.25% now!!
> 
> Goddamn! It's almost like zinc has already crashed!!




Good buying opportunity. Have bought 3 parcels today.


----------



## YOUNG_TRADER (13 November 2006)

nizar said:
			
		

> Note that zinc was also in short supply and reserves were dropping in May when ZFX got absolutely smashed from 13.50 to 8.00.
> There are corrections in every bull run.
> I'd rather buy on the way up, thanks




I'm with you Niz, 

wait for dust to settle, this thumping is coming from a slight drop in Zinc price + flat DJIA

Imagine Zinc testing $1.80 support + DJIA down 100-200 points 


REMEMBER DON'T TRY AND CATCH A FALLING KNIFE!


----------



## phoenixrising (13 November 2006)

Zinc is showing +0.0157 = +0.80% on Kitco non LME atm.

Can anything be read into this?

Or does the real indicator's start later?

Cheers


----------



## stoxclimber (13 November 2006)

People are so quick to mention may/june...

In September zinc fell something like 8.5% in one day - zfx crashed, next day zinc down another 3% but zfx was up..


----------



## Damuzzdu (13 November 2006)

nizar said:
			
		

> Note that zinc was also in short supply and reserves were dropping in May when ZFX got absolutely smashed from 13.50 to 8.00.
> There are corrections in every bull run.
> I'd rather buy on the way up, thanks




Agree with u Nizar....the fall in Zn from $2.07 to $1.99, has seen a big fall today in ZFX, but I'm thinking that this is just the first phase of a correction in Zn. Back in May this happened also on a friday nite, when Zn fell 5%, then continued to correct, and ZFX just fell apart... 

Cheers


----------



## Nick Radge (13 November 2006)

Warning signs were there...note the date.



*BOTTOM LINE * 
7/11:
EW Trend: Up
Price Trend: Up
Trend Strength: Strong
Broker Consensus: Intermediate BUY 

*LAYMANS ANALYSIS * 
7/11:
VIDEO ANALYSIS (2 mins 56 secs) 
It's a difficult ask to suggest that a stock such as ZFX is in danger of declining, but the price action today does suggest some sellers have entered the market and if they're serious then we may see ZFX have at least a small reversal lower. Both the last two sessions have gapped higher; yesterday on low volume but today on higher volume. Today however probed higher and closed on its lows, the combination of which is a sure sign of supply in the market. This does not indicate that prices will drop like a stone, but it is a red flag as it shows the Smart Money may be lightening their loads. Should the supply increase and prices do start to tip one will need to be careful because this market is full of speculative fervour and we could see a repeat performance like we did in some of the Gold stocks earlier this year. 

*TECHNICAL DISCUSSION * 
7/11:
Prices gapped higher yesterday a travelled a fair distance on very low volume. This means no sellers were around to keep a lid on prices which in turn means that small buyers were able to push prices a long way. It also means that if sellers do decide to step up to the plate, it would not take too much effort to drive prices back down again, assuming they were in a hurry to distribute their stock. Today was another gap higher but the signs of sellers are clear. Another gap open, a probe to new highs, a close on the lows and increased volume all lead to sellers. We're possibly seeing a wave-iii high of a very strong trend. Usually when trends are this strong we tend to get a sideways correction as a wave-iv, although if the weaker hands panic we may see a quick exodus and a quick price drop. When Gold dropped back in May I indicated that you did not want to be the last person out the door, and that stands true here, albeit without the larger trend termination. Any decline would need to halt before the $12.39 wave-i highs but I'm thinking $14.00 would more than likely see it out. Bullish, but watch for a dip.


----------



## Freeballinginawetsuit (13 November 2006)

hmmm. not exactly Rocket Science was it!. Smart buyers already in (huge consolidation period with large holders buying and the little boys getting frustrated and bailing), bullish commodity driven stock with small buyers driving up weak sell depth, a few gap days, and out come the sellers!.

Agree with Bullish stance and that ZFX will bounce, considering its EPS and Zinc ATM, the big boys will be back in and bounce this one on their lap!.


----------



## pacer (13 November 2006)

Freeballinginawetsuit said:
			
		

> hmmm. not exactly Rocket Science was it!. Smart buyers already in (huge consolidation period with large holders buying and the little boys getting frustrated and bailing), bullish commodity driven stock with small buyers driving up weak sell depth, a few gap days, and out come the sellers!.
> 
> Agree with Bullish stance and that ZFX will bounce, considering its EPS and Zinc ATM, the big boys will be back in and bounce this one on their lap!.




Well were all geneouses after the event, NICK....wy not post earlier so we don't all die form a mental breakdown......I suspect all mums and dads ran away today....rise tomorrow?.....sideways is the only way.......

DONT PANIC.....hitch-hikers guide to the Galaxy!


----------



## Damuzzdu (13 November 2006)

Great analysis Nick...last Tuesday was nearly a blow-off top, although volume was not quite there (I was looking for something over 10M). However vol had been falling off for last 4-5 days prior to the 7/11/06, when suddenly vol nearly doubled on that day. A close lower than open was a sign that sellers might be chasing it down.

The next two days seemed to signal a confirmation of this, but what was surprising to me was the run up on Friday, with stock finishing on its high for the day. I suspect this might have buyers seeing the stock close up from its lows on Thursdays and seeing Zn run up again, decided to buy in for fear of missing out, only now to caught with a big fall in ZFX today. 

Today's vol is a confirmation of this (13.8M) that sellers were clearly chasing prices lower. This was a combination of traders booking profits and those traders with fear in their minds that may have bought in the high's $16.00's not wanting to hold o/nite and seeing prices open much lower tomorrow.

Any furthur falls in the price of Zn over the next 2-3 days could see ZFX test the 50% retracement level on high vol. The first level of support is the old all time high formed back in early May, but a break of that may see ZFX testing the $12.20-$12.40 band which took a number of weeks to break down, eventually giving way around early Oct.

Cheers


----------



## Damuzzdu (13 November 2006)

YOUNG_TRADER said:
			
		

> Imagine Zinc testing $1.80 support + DJIA down 100-200 points




YT,

Zn testing $1.91 down another 3.43% as I type...ZFX to fall more on Tuesday

Cheers


----------



## pacer (13 November 2006)

_Ohh pooooo.....doom and gloom again...._ I can handle it dropping to 12.50....but seriously...LME is drawn down too much...*Get a grip.*......this was a *commodity* correction today...I went fishing...Zinc is all powerful....All stupidity on panic will pay me a 6-12% rise tomorrow....I bought more today....come see me in a week for some shares if u want them..they'll be expensive though....wooohooo....going fishing again tomorrow..who needs this Bearish/bulls/hype......hehe....don't really care now.....am HAPPY BUYING AT 12.80 average and some on the way up.

All is good with the all powerful zinc......zinc is being manipulated....galvanised steel is a huge thing.....Wake up !!!!...and buy more!...one scary day does not mean a total correction....LET'S SEE YOU TRY AND GET SOME ZINC NEXT WEEK!...or even tomorrow....hehe!

Just my opinion.....don't be weak...just because it happened before (major correction)  doesnt mean it'll happen again....traders have smashed this.....should rocket to $18 within 2 weeks if I'm not mistaken.....buy now...LME is sooooooo sad...and no reprieve in sight....hold or buy more is my attitude....

*LOVE IT!!!!!*


----------



## nizar (13 November 2006)

pacer said:
			
		

> _Ohh pooooo.....doom and gloom again...._ I can handle it dropping to 12.50....but seriously...LME is drawn down too much...*Get a grip.*......this was a *commodity* correction today...I went fishing...Zinc is all powerful....All stupidity on panic will pay me a 6-12% rise tomorrow....I bought more today....come see me in a week for some shares if u want them..they'll be expensive though....wooohooo....going fishing again tomorrow..who needs this Bearish/bulls/hype......hehe....don't really care now.....am HAPPY BUYING AT 12.80 average and some on the way up.
> 
> All is good with the all powerful zinc......zinc is being manipulated....galvanised steel is a huge thing.....Wake up !!!!...and buy more!...one scary day does not mean a total correction....LET'S SEE YOU TRY AND GET SOME ZINC NEXT WEEK!...or even tomorrow....hehe!
> 
> ...




Excellent ramp, pacer.   
I almost thought it was H/C for a moment there.


----------



## stoxclimber (13 November 2006)

I'll gladly sell pacer my zfx holding at 6% premium on todays closing price tomorrow!!!


----------



## swingstar (13 November 2006)

This calls for a cliche:

Markets can stay irrational longer than you can stay solvent. 

Albeit I am bullish overall. I'm with Nick's analysis. I have a similar count on page 40 or so.


----------



## pacer (13 November 2006)

Beats the down rampers I suppose....damn fish scales are getting stuck in the damn keyboard again.....gotta go wash my hands.....sorry!




			
				nizar said:
			
		

> Excellent ramp, pacer.
> I almost thought it was H/C for a moment there.


----------



## squish (14 November 2006)

re: may get hammered - I don't think so...

A few thoughts about what is happening to this stock of the year called 'Zinifex'.

This stock came onto my radar screen early April this year. I was new to the sharemarket at that time.

Since then it has had the wildest ride ever. But to be brief, I got in at $8.50 with a large holding in one hit on the 14th June 2006 (Yes that huge disastrous opening when there was panic selling). I made some mistakes that day (ie sell RIN BHP thinking further falls), but ZFX was NOT one of them. 

So panic sellers can be a blessing if you pick it right, and some luck. 

At that time I had not read any reports from the company whatsoever. Just hearsay from the AFR.

But now:

I encourage all speculators to carefully read ZFX quarterly production reports for every quarter since 2005-q1, and calculate ZFX revenues based on the average price of Zn for that quarter. 

As a personal back of the envelope calculation:

With the average price of Zn at ~ US$1.50/lb in the previous quarter (q1 2007), and with a modest rise in costs (in line with the rise from 2005 ($1.5B) to 2006 ($1.9B ), 2007 (?) ), if the price of Zn holds at this level (US$1.50/lb) for the full year then ZFX is on target to increase their 2007 EPS by ~ 2.3 times F/Y 2006. That's approximately $5 / share F/Y 2007. ZFX have also promised to return surplus cash to shareholders, so most of this will be paid out in a dividend. 

Furthermore, look at the current assets per share of $4.51 (which will have dropped post recent dividend, so I may be corrected on this) and if you take the peak high of $17.00, then the 'at risk' capital of your investment is somewhere around $12.50. 

So for your $12.50 'at risk capital', forecast EPS is ballpark $5 with the AVERAGE Zn price of US$1.50/lb for all 4 quarters of Fin Year 2007. 

From my own personal estimates, every US$0.01/lb of Zn for which the price stays ABOVE any selected floor of the price; for the entire year (localised around $1.50 for the logarithmic folks), is worth $0.056 EPS in ZFX. So an increase of 20c/yr average is an extra ~ AUD$1 EPS. 

If Zn rises above US$2.00 and holds, and achieves an average above US$2.00, then ZFX may outperform ANZ on absolute profit (for a silly cross industry comparison). On an equivalent number of outstanding shares( ANZ 1.8B v ZFX 487M ) , ANZ trades at close to $108.00 / share equivalent.

Whilst sustainability is a concern, does it warrant this much of a discount? 

Within two years from now I estimate I will have my entire initial investment returned to me in EPS, but of course, remaining will be the net tangible assets, just incase ZFX liquidates (like the panic sellers and the quasi 'stop loss' sellers). 

... and to top it all off ... Zinc is about to become scarce for the next two years. 

as Greg Gailey says it "we remain positive about the outlook for zinc prices and anticipate continued strong demand for our products."


And some speculate more falls to come...

The falls in May this year were prior to the 2006 reports, and did anybody really have an accurate hold on ZFX yearly incremental costs. I think things are a little more clearer now. 

If it falls to $13.50, with Zn average above US$1.50/lb, I will be liquidating other stocks 'at market' to add more ZFX. 


--------	
This post has calculations in it from my own person efforts, please do not rely on these numbers and read the official reports of Zinifex Ltd and perform you own calculations. This is not an endorsement of Zinifex Ltd shares, only a written verse of my own personal thoughts about the current situation surrounding Zinifex Ltd. There is no warranty, express or implied in the accuracy of the above information.


----------



## stoxclimber (14 November 2006)

Just one thing squish, and thats that last year ZFX actually got money from the ATO in tax - 100m worth approximately - I don't know what their tax situation will be this year. If they had to pay corporate tax of 30% as opposed to -10% the EPS situation for last year would be much changed...but I agree with you that ZFX is on track for a good financial result.

Zinc price has recovered somehwat -only down 2.44% overall! I'm still short term nervous about zinc after the (effectively) 7.5% intraday fall...


----------



## pacer (14 November 2006)

I saw it hit down 9% today ...  and shat my pants....not!.....



			
				stoxclimber said:
			
		

> just one thing squish, and thats that last year ZFX actually got money from the ATO in tax - 100m worth approximately - I don't know what their tax situation will be this year. If they had to pay corporate tax of 30% as opposed to -10% the EPS situation for last year would be much changed...but I agree with you that ZFX is on track for a good financial result.
> 
> 
> Zinc price has recovered somehwat -only down 2.44% overall! I'm still short term nervous about zinc after the (effectively) 7.5% intraday fall...


----------



## Joe Blow (14 November 2006)

pacer said:
			
		

> Wake up !!!!...and buy more!...
> 
> should rocket to $18 within 2 weeks if I'm not mistaken.....buy now...




Pacer, please ease up on this kind of blatant ramping.


----------



## pacer (14 November 2006)

What???....*My ramping a multi billiondollar stock will change anything???....

I only ramp my small stocks....especialy NEO.....lol....
*


			
				Joe Blow said:
			
		

> Pacer, please ease up on this kind of blatant ramping.


----------



## Fab (14 November 2006)

It should bounce back today after Zinc went up overnight. It will be interesting to see how high it bounce back so


----------



## rwkni1 (14 November 2006)

Zinc actually dipped 1.5% last night, but i still wouldn't be surprised to see ZFX consolidate after that kind of profit taking. LME inventories continued to fall.


----------



## Fab (14 November 2006)

Kitco shows that it dipped 0.34%


----------



## stoxclimber (14 November 2006)

fab, kitco is often incorrect - use Selftrade (thx to a recommendation by an ASF poster) 

Here's zinc:

http://focus.selftrade.co.uk/en/det...large.html?sSymbol=Q_EUR_GS0000000097_U01.SON


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## nizar (14 November 2006)

stoxclimber said:
			
		

> fab, kitco is often incorrect - use Selftrade (thx to a recommendation by an ASF poster)
> 
> Here's zinc:
> 
> http://focus.selftrade.co.uk/en/det...large.html?sSymbol=Q_EUR_GS0000000097_U01.SON




Or basemetals
http://www.basemetals.com/


----------



## stoxclimber (14 November 2006)

Nice recovery in general by the zinc sector after the panic selling of this morning - 1.5% fall was a pretty good result overnight.


----------



## Fab (14 November 2006)

Yes indeed. My question is why zinc price has been following when there is no reserve left of it ??


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## stoxclimber (14 November 2006)

Finance theorists will tell you its a random walk =)..


The cancellations have dried up for zinc with the price rise...hopefully this correction will get some interest again - only 25t of zinc was cancelled last night..


----------



## nizar (14 November 2006)

Fab said:
			
		

> Yes indeed. My question is why zinc price has been following when there is no reserve left of it ??




Because of hedge funds and speculators.
They dont care about long term picture, they are in profit, they dump, and they exit. Simple as that.

Look what happened in the May correction. Stocks were still going down. From May-June, the stockpile/reserves went from 260ktonnes to 230ktonnes (YES THEY FELL) yet the price went from us$1.80 to us$1.35/lb.

There are corrections in every bullrun. You gotta take profits sometimes.


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## Kauri (14 November 2006)

Fab said:
			
		

> Yes indeed. My question is why zinc price has been following when there is no reserve left of it ??




        How much of the worlds supply is actually represented by the LME registered stockpiles worldwide, how much, if any, is traded on the spot market, how much is sold directly by producers to refineries under long term contracts?? Do many of the LME contracts over metals actually make it to the physical delivery stage?? 
     In short, how important globally are the LME stockpiles, and what do they represent.


----------



## nizar (14 November 2006)

Kauri said:
			
		

> How much of the worlds supply is actually represented by the LME registered stockpiles worldwide, how much, if any, is traded on the spot market, how much is sold directly by producers to refineries under long term contracts?? Do many of the LME contracts over metals actually make it to the physical delivery stage??
> In short, how important globally are the LME stockpiles, and what do they represent.




THey represent a reserve from which if producers metal does not cover demand, then metal may be taken out of these reserves.
Producers often sell their metal at a 20-25c premium to the LME prices.
LME stockpiles represent the stockpile of metal globally. As the contracts become closer dated, then smelters and producers are in control, but the long dated contracts, the speculators and hedge funds are in control, just like with any other commodity futures.

The LME monitors the amount of metal going in and out of reserves all over the world.

This website gives a more accurate picture than kitco:
http://www.basemetals.com/stocks.aspx
(click on the magnifying glass)

The above is just my understanding. Rederob can give you a more detailed, and perhaps more accurate response.


----------



## Fab (14 November 2006)

Interesting ZFX went back into red territory at the very end of this session . Why ??


----------



## chops_a_must (14 November 2006)

Joe Blow said:
			
		

> Pacer, please ease up on this kind of blatant ramping.



Come on, this ramping is hilarious. As opposed to the ADI thread.


----------



## Fab (15 November 2006)

OOPs , ZFX appears to be going through a massive correction in the last few days


----------



## ctp6360 (15 November 2006)

Makes me feel like less of a loser for selling a massive stake in ZFX at around the $12 mark not long ago!


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## stoxclimber (15 November 2006)

Fab: Yup it is. To me this is a huge buying opportunity and I'll be investing a large chunk of my portfolio in ZFX as soon as the cancellations pick up for LME stocks.


----------



## Fab (15 November 2006)

stoxclimber said:
			
		

> Fab:I'll be investing a large chunk of my portfolio in ZFX as soon as the cancellations pick up for LME stocks.



What do you mean by the above statement ?


----------



## stoxclimber (15 November 2006)

The cancellations in LME died off with the big spike in zinc prices but they seem to have picked up a bout with 800 overnight. If this continues then it confirms zinc stocks are going to keep falling hard in the short term..and there's not much left.


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## Fab (15 November 2006)

stoxclimber ,

That sounds pretty good for company such as ZFX then why is ZFX going down ? Profit taking ? Zinc price down ?
P/E ratio is back under 5 which is very very cheap


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## stoxclimber (15 November 2006)

IMO zfx is going down because a) the price of zinc is going down and b) ZFX's stock price increased excessively compared to the price of zinc/ZFX's profit (I said this before the correction either in this thread or the zinc thread). 

That said I think it's a great buying opportunity and its just a question of timing your entry so you avoid being exposed to a further slide in zinc prices in the short term.


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## Nick Radge (15 November 2006)

The last two days has seen ZFX close on or near its lows. Volume has been very low which is a sign that buyers are not supporting the stock at these levels. It also means that the sellers seen back at $17'ish are not chasing it lower. However, should they decide they want out then there is going to be a swift move lower. Until buyers support the stock it will not be able to rise and even then, those sellers may not have been fulfilled yet.


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## stoxclimber (15 November 2006)

Zinc's down 1.68% in early LME trade. Good news for me, less good news for holders (although I have some zinc exposure in TRO)


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## nizar (15 November 2006)

stoxclimber said:
			
		

> Zinc's down 1.68% in early LME trade. Good news for me, less good news for holders (although I have some zinc exposure in TRO)




How is zinc down good news for you?
If you are shorting zinc metal i tell u what u are a brave man indeed...


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## alankew (15 November 2006)

Maybe a naive question but if these contracts are cancelled(presumably to buy at a lower price-would be nice if you could do that with shares!)doesnt it just mean that the buyers have to come back and buy at a later date which still end up with stocks being depleted


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## stoxclimber (15 November 2006)

nizar said:
			
		

> How is zinc down good news for you?
> If you are shorting zinc metal i tell u what u are a brave man indeed...




Because the ZFX price will hopefully thus keep falling as people get scared of declining zinc prices, meaning that I can snap it up even cheaper! I am short term bullish on zinc and want to get lots of exposure to zinc (sold old holding at 15.80 as I anticipated short term falls in ZFX) so the cheaper the better.

alankew - (as I understand it, which may be 10% wrong but is generally right) if the stocks are held "on warrant" it means that they are being stored in the warehouses. When they become "cancelled" it means someone has chosen to take delivery of them so in time they will be moved out of the warehouse..and they are not available for others to purchase.

Thus, if the cancellations slow up, then the drawdown of total inventories will slow up in the near future (e.g. yesterday only 350t). If the cancellations are strong, then the drawdown in the short future should be strong too.


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## toothfairy (15 November 2006)

Hi, I have been watching and trading ZFX shares for the last 6 months or so and been very happy with the result. I am new to this forum.

One common thing I am sure all of you zinophiles do is to watch the prices of zinc metal while it was traded in LME @ our night time.

After watching it for months and I am still quite confused as where to look and I hope some of you zinc / metal gurus can help me.

I do know the most common (free) place to check is the famous Kitco or Selftrade sites, but I gather they are not LME prices and can be quite different to the LME (or should I say the real) prices. For example, Kitco said this moring zinc was down 1.88% to USD 1.9724 per lb, but when I checked the Zinifex site it says up $95 to $4305 / tonne (which is over 2% up). There is nearly a 4% difference between the quotes, who to believe and who is more important?

There were numerous examples like this if anyone is interested in say comparing Kitco to LME. Does anyone know where to get free realtime LME quotes?

I should have posted this in the zinc prices thread but I am more attached to ZFX. (I know I know do not fall in love with a share). Thanks for reading and I hope someone will advise.


----------



## Kipp (15 November 2006)

Fab said:
			
		

> stoxclimber ,
> 
> That sounds pretty good for company such as ZFX then why is ZFX going down ? Profit taking ? Zinc price down ?
> P/E ratio is back under 5 which is very very cheap



PE under five?  How did you arrive at that?  I assume you are talking Forward P.E.- EPS was only $2.20 in 2005-6 (including 130 mill of derrefed tax credit from previous year).  Which Pegs a PE of 7.

I'm waiting for ZFX to skip back to ~13.50 (highs in MAY, resistence again in October) before I buy in again... it might not fall back there- I'm just playing it safe.


----------



## Fab (16 November 2006)

Looks from the overnight Zinc LME that it will go back up today


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## Halba (16 November 2006)

kipp who values on historical p/es?????


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## Fab (16 November 2006)

Kipp said:
			
		

> PE under five?  How did you arrive at that?  I assume you are talking Forward P.E.- EPS was only $2.20 in 2005-6 (including 130 mill of derrefed tax credit from previous year).  Which Pegs a PE of 7.
> 
> I'm waiting for ZFX to skip back to ~13.50 (highs in MAY, resistence again in October) before I buy in again... it might not fall back there- I'm just playing it safe.




I am getting that from Commsec


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## YOUNG_TRADER (16 November 2006)

Kipp said:
			
		

> I'm waiting for ZFX to skip back to ~13.50 (highs in MAY, resistence again in October) before I buy in again... it might not fall back there- I'm just playing it safe.




And thats the best way to ply the game Kipp!

If we wake up and there's a mkt correction most stocks will fall back to May high levels as support, if they don't and fall through thats very bad.

But IMO your doing the right thing, the constant sell down of ZFX suggests that Insto's and smart money have left it, $13.5 looks like a good entry.

Good luck


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## Fab (16 November 2006)

Interesting ZFX is following hard again today and TZN is going up. I am wondering where ZFX will stop. It should bouce back at some stage.


----------



## Fab (16 November 2006)

What a terrible week for ZFX. I hope it will go back up soon


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## Sean K (16 November 2006)

A bit of downward momentum there. Heading to $13.50 maybe, $12.00 possible.   Back to long term trend around there I think.


----------



## chops_a_must (16 November 2006)

It seems to be way out of proportion to the factors that are causing it. With the earnings it's set to gain, it wont stay down for long. Well, it shouldn't anyway, but I'll be looking to get more when this negative sentiment ends.


----------



## Fab (16 November 2006)

I agree it looks like an exaggerated negative sentiment. I am hoping it will go back up very soon.


----------



## pacer (16 November 2006)

Sorry but I agree with Kennas....$1360 isn't that far away....reversed position on this one.....


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## chops_a_must (16 November 2006)

I tell you what, if it gets to 13.50, I'm going to want to be the first in there. Bargain.


----------



## Sean K (16 November 2006)

chops_a_must said:
			
		

> I tell you what, if it gets to 13.50, I'm going to want to be the first in there. Bargain.



I hope it doesn't get down to these levels for holders who bought at the top, but there does seem to be a bit of downward momentum atm. LME Zn just continues to fall so it's gotta turn at some time.


----------



## rederob (16 November 2006)

kennas said:
			
		

> I hope it doesn't get down to these levels for holders who bought at the top, but there does seem to be a bit of downward momentum atm. LME Zn just continues to fall so it's gotta turn at some time.



Kennas
I will be buying under $13.50 and also looking across to see what KZL is up to at the same point.
When ZFX peaked mid May the zinc price was about $1.50/lb, yet today it's 30% higher at almost $2.00/lb.  The linear extrapolation today places ZFX at around $18 on that basis, so we are into some serious value when buying at present prices, let alone under $14.


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## Sean K (16 November 2006)

rederob said:
			
		

> Kennas
> I will be buying under $13.50 and also looking across to see what KZL is up to at the same point.
> When ZFX peaked mid May the zinc price was about $1.50/lb, yet today it's 30% higher at almost $2.00/lb.  The linear extrapolation today places ZFX at around $18 on that basis, so we are into some serious value when buying at present prices, let alone under $14.



Yeah, I'm with you. This is the blow off we had to have though. Zn and U3O8 just ran too hard in Sep/Oct. Unsustainable. There's a likelihood of an overcorrection too, as always, so an opportunity will present itself.


----------



## Nick Radge (16 November 2006)

Another average volume, wide ranging day with low close. Still no buyers showing their hand. No demand, no going higher.


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## chops_a_must (16 November 2006)

rederob said:
			
		

> Kennas
> I will be buying under $13.50 and also looking across to see what KZL is up to at the same point.
> When ZFX peaked mid May the zinc price was about $1.50/lb, yet today it's 30% higher at almost $2.00/lb.  The linear extrapolation today places ZFX at around $18 on that basis, so we are into some serious value when buying at present prices, let alone under $14.



I wouldn't worry even if I had bought up the top. It will get there again, as soon as people realise they can't find any zinc. I'd be looking for it to get close to $20 in the new year. And especially if they are looking at acquiring new assets and diversifying...


----------



## Kipp (16 November 2006)

Halba said:
			
		

> kipp who values on historical p/es?????



Well- tell me what ZFX has made for the Jul-Nov period then?  Oh wait that's right, most accounts aren't released on a monthly basis!  Fine you can estimate based on Zinc/Lead Prices, but till End jan you don't really know what their earnings is...


----------



## nizar (16 November 2006)

Kipp said:
			
		

> Well- tell me what ZFX has made for the Jul-Nov period then?  Oh wait that's right, most accounts aren't released on a monthly basis!  Fine you can estimate based on Zinc/Lead Prices, but till End jan you don't really know what their earnings is...




To clear this issue up:
We are now in FY2007. So we look at earnings estimates for FY2007.
EPS is 295.4cps
Therefore PE is 5.0 (on todays close 14.73)


----------



## Fab (17 November 2006)

Looks to me that they are already very cheap. Not sure why their share price is going down except if some profit taking is happening in the short term.


----------



## nizar (17 November 2006)

Fab said:
			
		

> Looks to me that they are already very cheap. Not sure why their share price is going down except if some profit taking is happening in the short term.



Well the fact is ZFX has always traded at 4-8times earnings.
Compare ZFX to its historical PE, not to other companies. Its unknown at this stage whether the market will ever pay 10x earnings for this company. I suspect it will get a re-rating once (not IF) exploration around century mine is a success as they are spending big money in this endeavour.


----------



## Fab (17 November 2006)

oops it did it again. Down strongly today. When will it stop ??


----------



## nizar (17 November 2006)

Fab said:
			
		

> oops it did it again. Down strongly today. When will it stop ??



Nobody knows. Just prepare yourself and ANTICIPATE.
Have a PLAN. If it keeps going down, what do you do? If it rebounds what do you do?
Think about it.


----------



## Fab (17 November 2006)

what's your plan Nizar ?
Mine is stay put and pray


----------



## Sean K (17 November 2006)

Fab said:
			
		

> Mine is stay put and pray



I must add this to my list of tactics when dealing with the stock market. Solid.   
Good luck Fab! LOL.


----------



## Fab (17 November 2006)

Going up at the moment maybe we have found a bottom. At least it is moving the same way as the market at the moment


----------



## Fab (17 November 2006)

Going up at the moment maybe we have found a bottom. At least it is moving the same way as the market at the moment


----------



## Fab (17 November 2006)

That can not be bad for ZFX:

Zinifex's 2007 Profit May Beat Last Year's Record on Prices 

By Chia-Peck Wong and Josie Ling

Nov. 17 (Bloomberg) -- Zinifex Ltd., the world's second- largest zinc producer, expects profit this financial year to surpass last year's record because of higher metal prices. 

Net income in the year ending June 2007 will beat last year's A$1.1 billion ($843 million), Chief Executive Greig Gailey said in an interview today. He didn't give an estimate. 

Prices of zinc, used to make rust-resistant galvanized steel, have more than doubled in the past year, reaching a record closing price of $4,515 a ton on Nov. 9 because of demand from China. The metal may surpass $5,000 a ton by year end, Macquarie Bank Ltd. said. 

``If zinc prices remain where they are today, and we've got another six months of trading ahead of us, we would expect to easily beat that in the current fiscal year,'' Gailey said today in an interview. ``Fundamentals look exceptionally good.'' 

Zinifex is among mining companies posting record profits following a rally in metals prices. Net income may rise 34 percent to $1.47 billion in the year ending June 2007, according to the median estimate of 13 analysts surveyed by Thomson Financial. Vedanta Resources Plc., India's largest copper and zinc producer, said yesterday first-half net income quadrupled. 

Prices of industrial metals have soared in the past three years partly as China's booming economy stokes demand for the raw materials needed for factories, cars and appliances. Nickel has more than doubled and copper has risen 51 percent this year. China's economy expanded 10.4 percent in the third quarter. 

Stockpiles Dwindle 

Zinc inventory tracked by the London Metal Exchange fell 550 metric tons, or 0.6 percent, to 93,025 tons, the exchange said yesterday in a daily report. That's the lowest since April 1991. 

``Zinc looks as though it's running out,'' said Adam Rowley, a London-based analyst with Macquarie said Nov. 7. 

The global market had a production shortfall of 304,000 tons in the nine months through September, the Lisbon-based International Lead and Zinc Study Group said Nov. 15. 

``If stockpiles continue to deplete at the current rate, they will be exhausted early next year,'' Gailey said. 

Melbourne-based Zinifex is looking to buy mines or companies outside Australia and increase production of other metals as well as zinc. 

``We currently produce zinc, lead, copper, silver, gold and are interested in any of those metals,'' he said. 

Takeover Targets 

Takeover targets in Australia are limited because of a lack of independent, large-sized companies, Gailey said. Zinifex is not keen to acquire domestic rival Kagara Zinc Ltd. 

``Kagara is probably a bit small for us. Secondly, Korea Zinc is already a shareholder,'' he said. 

Kagara Zinc, based in Perth, said last week it has been ``informally approached'' by a number of interested parties. Korea Zinc Co., the world's biggest producer of the metal, holds 13.7 percent of Kagara, according to an exchange filing in June. 

Zinifex itself may be acquired because its shares trade at lower price-to-earnings multiple, compared with those of bigger rivals, Gailey said. Zinifex stock, which has more than doubled this year, trades at 6.7 times earnings, compared with 26 times for Korea Zinc. 

``If someone wants to buy, the only issue and debate is the price. We're undervalued and we would certainly be looking for a substantial premium above our current stock price,'' Gailey said. Mining companies ``are all cashed up.'' 

Zinifex is the best-performer in the 17-member Standard & Poor's/ASX 100 Resources index this year, with a rise of 114 percent. BHP Billiton Ltd., the world's biggest mining company, ranks sixth. 

To contact the reporters on this story: Josie Ling in Singapore at Jling5@bloomberg.net Chia-Peck Wong in Singapore at cpwong@bloomberg.net 

Last Updated: November 16, 2006 18:32 EST


----------



## nizar (17 November 2006)

"May" beat last year??
LOL thats pretty funny.
I reckon it will AT LEAST double it
But astute management always aim to underpromise and overdeliver.
This stock is a winner.


----------



## porkpie324 (17 November 2006)

Thanks Fab for that info, ZFX traded down to $14.26 this morning currently $15.01, what a trading opportunity! Looking good for the future going by the article. I haven't traded ZFX but have added them to my CFD watchlist, traded KZL many times. porkpie


----------



## Damuzzdu (19 November 2006)

toothfairy said:
			
		

> Hi, I have been watching and trading ZFX shares for the last 6 months or so and been very happy with the result. I am new to this forum.
> 
> One common thing I am sure all of you zinophiles do is to watch the prices of zinc metal while it was traded in LME @ our night time.
> 
> ...




Toothfairy,

1. There is no such thing as free realtime LME quotes. It just does not exist. I have looked for a long time.
2. If you want it be prepared to pay for it. Basemetals.com has realtime quotes from LME rings, LMEselect. It is starts at $A500/mth.
3. You seem to have most bases covered, with Kitco & Selftrade.
4. My take on it is this, there are the LME prices, cash and 3 mth fwd, Kitco (non-LME) which numerous people quote to you on the thread and the ZINC thread.

The problem for me is that Kitcometals is a non-LME price and is a sort-of secondary spot market, I'm not sure if this is right term, (rederob can you confirm this or not?)

Take Friday nite for example:

LME cash ask fell from US$4359/tonne Thursday to US$4110/tonne Friday which has been posted on basemetals.com.

LME 3 mth Fwd ask fell from US$4285/tonne Thursday to US$4070/tonne Friday.

That's a 5.71% fall for cash LME and 4.4% for 3 month fwd.

Yet Kitcometals have Zinc spot (bid) at 1.8839 down 3.82%. The LME cash is = to US$1.8643/lb.

This is probably not much help to you, but.....

I'm considering to subscribing to delayed data from basemetals.com but I'm not sure if I really need it as it trades overnight and I think kitcometals gives us the general direction, although as you rightly pointed it can be wrong at times

Cheers 
John


----------



## toothfairy (19 November 2006)

Damuzzdu said:
			
		

> Toothfairy,
> 
> 1. There is no such thing as free realtime LME quotes. It just does not exist. I have looked for a long time.
> 2. If you want it be prepared to pay for it. Basemetals.com has realtime quotes from LME rings, LMEselect. It is starts at $A500/mth.
> ...




John,

thanks for your reply, it is helpful to know that can't be helped anyway. Do you think the LME or Kitco price has more bearing on the Zfx SP? May be at the end of the day (or a few days) they catch up or down with each other anyway. We can get the LME price updated @ 8:00am next morning on the Zfx website, what's the earliest time they post it on Basemetal?

I am bracing myself for a 4-5% drop in Zfx price tomorrow morning. I have a large holding (bought average $11.00) but managed only to sell 1/3 @ 16.10. Rederob seems to say it will be alright in a few months.

Good luck, cheerrs.


----------



## Damuzzdu (19 November 2006)

toothfairy said:
			
		

> John,
> 
> thanks for your reply, it is helpful to know that can't be helped anyway. Do you think the LME or Kitco price has more bearing on the Zfx SP? May be at the end of the day (or a few days) they catch up or down with each other anyway. We can get the LME price updated @ 8:00am next morning on the Zfx website, what's the earliest time they post it on Basemetal?
> 
> ...




tf,

More bearing - I would say LME as most professional and insto get the live LME data, so they know the score. But certainly for us smaller investors/traders kitco becomes  the benchmark. What I do is try to confirm the kitco price thru several other sources, namely my broker publishes a daily bulletin just before opens and this has Zinc prices and also commsec has a site where they do a daily commodities report which is published quite early. I also watch bloomberg TV as they put up the LME 3 mth fwd prices, every half-an-hour. So if you have foxtel , you can get it there live, but only every 30 mins or so.

Earliest time basemetals puts up proper LME prices is around 2.00pm ESST.

Yes I think ZFX could come under some selling pressure in the morning. I too have a large holding in ZFX (20K) brought in June, so i'm going backwards at this stage, but not really worried as I am in for long haul to reap the divvys in the next yr or so.

Cheers & good luck
john


----------



## toothfairy (19 November 2006)

Damuzzdu said:
			
		

> tf,
> 
> Yes I think ZFX could come under some selling pressure in the morning. I too have a large holding in ZFX (20K) brought in June, so i'm going backwards at this stage, but not really worried as I am in for long haul to reap the divvys in the next yr or so.
> 
> ...




john,
can't see how you are going backwards, June was the best recent time to pick up ZFX between $10-11.

tf


----------



## Damuzzdu (19 November 2006)

toothfairy said:
			
		

> john,
> can't see how you are going backwards, June was the best recent time to pick up ZFX between $10-11.
> 
> tf




tf,
Maybe I was not clear....since I did not sell at prices over $16.50 I'm losing profits, but i hope I will regain these gains soon...

My ave price is now under $9 inc the 70c divvy just rec'd, as I bought in 3 lots, one lot on 14/6 the big down day. That was a bit of luck 

Cheers
john


----------



## goetzuwe (19 November 2006)

Zinifex in not alone:

Peru’s Volcan Campania Minera expects its production of contained zinc to rise by 27% to nearly 400,000 tons in 2008 from the expected 310,000 tons this year.

Sorce:
http://www.kitcometals.com/reports/manmetals/metals_061116.pdf


----------



## nizar (20 November 2006)

From another board:

ZFX upgraded to buy by citicorp; Target $19.40

Profit forecast 2007 is $1.8billion
Dividend estimate $2.70


----------



## Kipp (20 November 2006)

nizar said:
			
		

> From another board:
> 
> ZFX upgraded to buy by citicorp; Target $19.40
> 
> ...



Niz my friend it is definately time you picked up a few shares... you know that sitting on the sidelines is killing you... lol


----------



## nizar (20 November 2006)

Kipp said:
			
		

> Niz my friend it is definately time you picked up a few shares... you know that sitting on the sidelines is killing you... lol




It is indeed...
Iv got my finger on the trigger.

This company is a winner.


----------



## chops_a_must (21 November 2006)

It really doesn't like getting below $15 dollars does it? I wonder if this will be the end of the selling in this stock. Especially as the zinc price may have stabilised.


----------



## Sean K (22 November 2006)

ZFX has bounced back nicely, in line with other zincers I suppose. Not sure how much there is to tell from the chart except its going long term UP! 

As with most zn stocks it probably ran too hard and was flying away from the 200d ma, indicating that it needed to pull back at some point. 

Then, after the pullback was heading towards the lower end of the Bollinger Band and what should have been support around $14.00 which saw it bounce. Probably a little earlier than expected to me. I thought it might have found $13.00.  

Now the momentum indicators are saying it's heading back up again. (Doh!) MACD just starting to converge which is a good sign. Early days of new up trend perhaps. Stochastics went oversold and are now heading up, but not oversold. This is in good buy territory in theory.  

Very good long term support at previous strong resistance at $12.00, but it's hard to see it getting back there unless someone pulls a few million tons of Zn out of their a@r#se.


----------



## chops_a_must (22 November 2006)

kennas said:
			
		

> ZFX has bounced back nicely, in line with other zincers I suppose. Not sure how much there is to tell from the chart except its going long term UP!



I topped up again in the low 15s, as I didn't think it was going to get much lower, and it looks like zinc prices are going back up again. Was hoping to get more in the lower 14s, but that proved a bit optimistic I think. Time will tell if I made the right call I guess...


----------



## pacer (25 November 2006)

*Well said Kennas.......* checking my bum right now....no....there aint none there...see you around $17.90+...hehe....:.....will we see a head and shoulders?...KZL looks like it may do one.....if it does, what will ZFX do?

Zinc is up on LME .....


Kennas said.........
 it's hard to see it getting back there unless someone pulls a few million tons of Zn out of their a@r#se.[/QUOTE]


----------



## rederob (25 November 2006)

*chops*
Rest easy.
If ZFX doesn't get to $20 very soon, I will buy all your shares from you at market so that you are not disappointed.
We are in for a massive commodity rally leading into Xmas.
Put on your seatbelts, folks.

OOooops, was that ramping?
So be it!


----------



## michael_selway (25 November 2006)

rederob said:
			
		

> *chops*
> Rest easy.
> If ZFX doesn't get to $20 very soon, I will buy all your shares from you at market so that you are not disappointed.
> We are in for a massive commodity rally leading into Xmas.
> ...




red i thought you said there was more ST price drop to come for zinc?

thx

MS


----------



## CanOz (25 November 2006)

chops_a_must said:
			
		

> I topped up again in the low 15s, as I didn't think it was going to get much lower, and it looks like zinc prices are going back up again. Was hoping to get more in the lower 14s, but that proved a bit optimistic I think. Time will tell if I made the right call I guess...




There is also a gap on the chart to be filled. There may be another opportunity to buy again before i goes mich higher. Any EW pickers want to put thier slant on it?

Cheers,


----------



## nizar (25 November 2006)

rederob said:
			
		

> *chops*
> Rest easy.
> If ZFX doesn't get to $20 very soon, I will buy all your shares from you at market so that you are not disappointed.
> We are in for a massive commodity rally leading into Xmas.
> ...





20-plus i reckon.
Wait till all those analyst upgrades come in.
Any1 going to the ZFX agm on monday?


----------



## rederob (25 November 2006)

michael_selway said:
			
		

> red i thought you said there was more ST price drop to come for zinc?
> 
> thx
> 
> MS



MS
I recall that was around 16 November.
I don't know if it was here or elsewhere that I said to start buying zinc eqities on Moday 20th (I know that Julia knows my views on this for certain).
I reckon 2 trading days is short term enough.


----------



## stoxclimber (25 November 2006)

red: do you forsee buyers cutting their demand to 'fake' the market at the new higher prices (as you said there was last time it reached this level due to the backwardisation) or will the demand continue as normal?


----------



## chops_a_must (25 November 2006)

rederob said:
			
		

> *chops*
> Rest easy.
> If ZFX doesn't get to $20 very soon, I will buy all your shares from you at market so that you are not disappointed.
> We are in for a massive commodity rally leading into Xmas.
> ...



Heh, it's going to be an interesting ride regardless. Especially considering that the instos dumped ZFX, and now they will have to get back in at a price higher than what they dumped them off at.


----------



## Fab (27 November 2006)

Interesting ZFX is going down and the price of zinc went up strongly overnight. This does not add up


----------



## traderandy (27 November 2006)

http://www.theage.com.au/news/Busin...costs-with-zinc/2006/11/27/1164476105752.html

Looks like it's another case of the masses overreacting to news.  Will be interesting to see if buyers push it back up later in the day...


----------



## spitrader1 (27 November 2006)

Fab said:
			
		

> Interesting ZFX is going down and the price of zinc went up strongly overnight. This does not add up



FAB are you serious?? Are you saying just because zinc went up so should ZFX??

FYI ZFX had there AGM today, i would suggest having a read of that may indicate the stocks price action.


----------



## stoxclimber (27 November 2006)

Come on guys...if any of you seriously thought ZFX would have lower costs this year then you are seriously ignorant of the state of the resources sector at the moment..


----------



## dlineinvestor (27 November 2006)

Purely on fact I cannot find a reason for the slight decline of SP. Most factors point to a rising SP. The AGM news is fairly good Zinc is steady and according to indicators should breach 17.00 this week. Any input from others ?


----------



## spitrader1 (27 November 2006)

dlineinvestor said:
			
		

> Purely on fact I cannot find a reason for the slight decline of SP. Most factors point to a rising SP. The AGM news is fairly good Zinc is steady and according to indicators should breach 17.00 this week. Any input from others ?



im neither a bull or bear on ZFX, i was simply pointing out that to think a stocks price will go up just because the related comoddity has a better night is both naive and uneducated.


----------



## Sean K (27 November 2006)

I think it's just resistance to move through the all time high, nothing more. Is expected. Profit takers moving in to take advantage of the recent increase.


----------



## stoxclimber (27 November 2006)

spitrader1 said:
			
		

> im neither a bull or bear on ZFX, i was simply pointing out that to think a stocks price will go up just because the related comoddity has a better night is both naive and uneducated.




I can't agree - recent history suggests that is not the case...


----------



## chops_a_must (27 November 2006)

kennas said:
			
		

> I think it's just resistance to move through the all time high, nothing more. Is expected. Profit takers moving in to take advantage of the recent increase.



Yep. When it pushes to the high 16s, it invariably immediately pulls back. But each time it does it, it gets closer to going through.


----------



## spitrader1 (27 November 2006)

stoxclimber said:
			
		

> I can't agree - recent history suggests that is not the case...



i am talking intraday-which is what the poster is referring to. I agree that majority of the time sure, it should go with the price of the commod. But when you have other things factored into the equation-like for instance the companys AGM, i beleive it is silly to not think there are other market forces pushing the stock around.


----------



## nizar (27 November 2006)

dlineinvestor said:
			
		

> Purely on fact I cannot find a reason for the slight decline of SP. Most factors point to a rising SP. *The AGM news is fairly good* Zinc is steady and according to indicators should breach 17.00 this week. Any input from others ?





Really?
I was there, and didnt get any positive vibes.
Board got drilled on renumeration and Greg Gailey first stated that they are doing exploration around Century but then he goes that they are not aiming to increase production there and that 500ktonnes is the maximum output.


----------



## chops_a_must (27 November 2006)

nizar said:
			
		

> Really?
> I was there, and didnt get any positive vibes.
> Board got drilled on renumeration and Greg Gailey first stated that they are doing exploration around Century but then he goes that they are not aiming to increase production there and that 500ktonnes is the maximum output.



Strange.
It reads fairly well. It seems like they are aiming at extended mine life rather than increased production.

It's interesting how much you miss when you aren't actually at an AGM.


----------



## pacer (27 November 2006)

I bailed out this morning ...... ABC news saying a 10% increase in costs....time to look elsewhere for another play.....it's going sideways if you ask me.


----------



## nizar (27 November 2006)

pacer said:
			
		

> I bailed out this morning ...... ABC news saying a 10% increase in costs....time to look elsewhere for another play.....it's going sideways if you ask me.




Oh yeh. They mentioned that as well. FY2006 costs increased by 7%. A good effort i thought.


----------



## dlineinvestor (27 November 2006)

Zinifex expects the outlook for zinc prices to more than compensate for the effects of higher costs in the 2006/07 financial year.
If the zinc price stays where it is today, we'll do better than last year. 
Mr Gailey said the company is not in talks and has had no formal approaches regarding a takeover, but  an approach was not out of the question.
If someone wants to buy Zinifex the only issue  is price.
IMO .... Rising costs will hopefully be absorbed and any downturn in SP could mean an attractive re-entry price. Zinc is still in high demand and thus the analogy of supply and demand is still in effect over the SP. Lets see what future ... zinc prices bring.


----------



## michael_selway (27 November 2006)

pacer said:
			
		

> I bailed out this morning ...... ABC news saying a 10% increase in costs....time to look elsewhere for another play.....it's going sideways if you ask me.




oh thats a tough call, i wouldnt bet my house on ZFX falling or going sideways into 2007, ignoring "corrections" if any

*Earnings and Dividends Forecast (cents per share) 
2006 2007 2008 2009 
EPS 219.9 314.8 238.1 172.5 
DPS 80.0 140.0 100.0 69.5 * 

*EPS(c) PE Growth 
Year Ending 30-06-07 314.8 5.3 43.2% 
Year Ending 30-06-08 238.1 7.0 -24.4% * 

thx

MS


----------



## chops_a_must (27 November 2006)

dlineinvestor said:
			
		

> Zinifex expects the outlook for zinc prices to more than compensate for the effects of higher costs in the 2006/07 financial year.



I don't see how the rising costs are any different to any other companies in Australia at the moment.


----------



## spitrader1 (28 November 2006)

stoxclimber said:
			
		

> I can't agree - recent history suggests that is not the case...



why isnt ZFX up today with the comodd up o/nte?? 
today is a classic exmaple of my argument yesterday


----------



## stoxclimber (28 November 2006)

zinc prices fell 1.88% according to Self Trade, 1.47% according to kitco, rather than a rise and down US$65/ton according to Zinifex's website.

qed


----------



## stoxclimber (29 November 2006)

On the other hand, today ZFX & zinc moved in opposite directions (so far), and I couldnt be happier that you are right=)


----------



## Fab (29 November 2006)

I agree I tend to associate zinc with ZFX but obviously this is not always the case. ZFX does not correct for very long anyway. Very impressive stock indeed


----------



## Halba (29 November 2006)

additionally the capital costs for dugald river were very low at <$500M cost. 

This will boost their zinc output by 33% by 2010. So zinc prices can fall 33% and still a lot of revenue, billions in fact. Its likely the extra production will simply be absorbed by chinese users anyway


----------



## redandgreen (29 November 2006)

why is ZFX up >4% ? Is it the takeover rumour again? 
NCM up >5%  takeover?????  What's going on?


----------



## stoxclimber (29 November 2006)

No idea red&green. KZL is also up a little so some of the rise is probably due to zinc falls maybe not being as bad as people may have expected....but the rest is totally unexplained. Takeover would be nice!


----------



## Fab (29 November 2006)

I think takeover speculation is catching up on this stock. This will put a rocket under its SP if it happens as the CEO yesterday mentioned that the price is the only issue for a sale


----------



## YELNATS (29 November 2006)

Fab said:
			
		

> I think takeover speculation is catching up on this stock. This will put a rocket under its SP if it happens as the CEO yesterday mentioned that the price is the only issue for a sale




Though isn't price normally the major issue between buyer and seller? regards yn.


----------



## stoxclimber (30 November 2006)

Wow...ZFX is smashing though $2mil sales like it is nothing..I wonder what is up?


----------



## redandgreen (30 November 2006)

stoxclimber said:
			
		

> Wow...ZFX is smashing though $2mil sales like it is nothing..I wonder what is up?



it can only be a takeover at this stage, there is no other pausible explanation.
(Passing mention made in today's AFR as well   
This rumour might have legs......


----------



## chops_a_must (30 November 2006)

Fab said:
			
		

> I agree I tend to associate zinc with ZFX but obviously this is not always the case. ZFX does not correct for very long anyway. Very impressive stock indeed



Lets not forget ZFX has lead as well fellas.


----------



## toothfairy (30 November 2006)

A question for the techies :
ZFX reached around $17 in early part of Nov. & many of you predicted that it will have a serious correction. Some say $14, some say $13 based on some sort of %tage. No one said for how long that it will stay down. It did dipped down VV breifly to $14.2 & I wonder how many of you managed to scramble for a handful.
Those who sat tight I admire your bravery & wisdom as it is going past $17 again despite of decreasing Zn price last night. I sold some at $16 and although regretting at this stage but realize that's the price to pay for insurance.
Am wondering now whether to buy it back tomorrow or wait a bit later? Is it a double peak pattern or not? Amazing share I must say! (for a blue chip that is.)


----------



## stoxclimber (30 November 2006)

redandgreen said:
			
		

> it can only be a takeover at this stage, there is no other pausible explanation.
> (Passing mention made in today's AFR as well
> This rumour might have legs......




a takeover rumour got a mention or the stock got a mention?


----------



## michael_selway (1 December 2006)

toothfairy said:
			
		

> A question for the techies :
> ZFX reached around $17 in early part of Nov. & many of you predicted that it will have a serious correction. Some say $14, some say $13 based on some sort of %tage. No one said for how long that it will stay down. It did dipped down VV breifly to $14.2 & I wonder how many of you managed to scramble for a handful.
> Those who sat tight I admire your bravery & wisdom as it is going past $17 again despite of decreasing Zn price last night. I sold some at $16 and although regretting at this stage but realize that's the price to pay for insurance.
> Am wondering now whether to buy it back tomorrow or wait a bit later? Is it a double peak pattern or not? Amazing share I must say! (for a blue chip that is.)




you have to think longer term (not too long), as yes ST in can "correct" but it produces teh right thing at the right time, and its not expensive (i.e. low PE)


----------



## redandgreen (1 December 2006)

stoxclimber said:
			
		

> a takeover rumour got a mention or the stock got a mention?



ZFX was mentioned as a takeover target as a possible explanation for the run-up in the price..
I emphasis this is conjecture ....nothing more


----------



## alankew (1 December 2006)

Did anyone notuce the price on commsec for ZFX,there was a buy for 1500 at a price of $192.If its a takeover i think thats a bit of a high premium-hope the order didnt get filled,looks like someones a bit heavy handed


----------



## redandgreen (1 December 2006)

alankew said:
			
		

> Did anyone notuce the price on commsec for ZFX,there was a buy for 1500 at a price of $192.If its a takeover i think thats a bit of a high premium-hope the order didnt get filled,looks like someones a bit heavy handed



 yeah  WEIRD!  maybe got something to do with its inclusion in the top 50  .


----------



## nizar (4 December 2006)

Picked up a few today.
Close above 17.06 was a break of all-time highs (Friday).


----------



## MiningGuru (4 December 2006)

Has now hit $18

As predicted a month or so ago, this share will hit $20 by around Christmas.

Still good buying at these prices.


----------



## nizar (4 December 2006)

MiningGuru said:
			
		

> Has now hit $18
> 
> As predicted a month or so ago, this share will hit $20 by around Christmas.
> 
> Still good buying at these prices.





LOL. It will go a fair bit more than $20 in my opinion.
I didnt buy this one for an 11% gain.


----------



## Jay-684 (4 December 2006)

nizar said:
			
		

> LOL. It will go a fair bit more than $20 in my opinion.
> I didnt buy this one for an 11% gain.




I sure hope so!

Bought 1000 @ 3.30 and still holding...... anything over $20 would be fantastic

article on base metals in general:

http://in.biz.yahoo.com/061202/203/69xdv.html


----------



## MiningGuru (4 December 2006)

Now has broken through the $18 resistance level. If it can hold above this until ther close it is a fantastic sign for a further surge in the next few days. Could get close to $20 very soon!


----------



## alankew (4 December 2006)

If the takeover talk/rumours/hype have any substance to them who would be buying and what would be the price?


----------



## Fab (4 December 2006)

Still cheap on P/E ratio compare to the industry average


----------



## chops_a_must (4 December 2006)

pacer said:
			
		

> I bailed out this morning ...... ABC news saying a 10% increase in costs....time to look elsewhere for another play.....it's going sideways if you ask me.



Lol!

Poor pacey!

Missed out big time, bad call.


----------



## barney (4 December 2006)

chops_a_must said:
			
		

> Lol!
> 
> Poor pacey!
> 
> Missed out big time, bad call.




Hi Chops, I wouldn't worry too much about Paceman .... He's probably been in and out (and IN again since his last post) .... Smart trader !! (hows STO going Pace .. still in or taken your profits??

PS Now I'm not a good trader .... I must be the only person this year to lose money on ZFX .............. such is life ................  Beware lads ... lots of gaps in the SP !!!!!  The market is fickle atm imo.   All the best Barney.


----------



## clowboy (4 December 2006)

barney said:
			
		

> PS Now I'm not a good trader .... I must be the only person this year to lose money on ZFX .............. such is life ................  Beware lads ... lots of gaps in the SP !!!!!  The market is fickle atm imo.   All the best Barney.




Nope I know someone else


----------



## crayfish (4 December 2006)

still plenty of good times ahead for zinc....the "supercycle" has arrived


----------



## barney (4 December 2006)

clowboy said:
			
		

> Nope I know someone else




Howdy Clowboy,

Its a bugga thats for sure .......... Timing is very important ........ you'd think I'd know better being a muso!!   Cheers.   (PDN has been a little kinder !!)


----------



## chops_a_must (4 December 2006)

barney said:
			
		

> Timing is very important ........ you'd think I'd know better being a muso!



Only if you were a drummer...


----------



## michael_selway (4 December 2006)

nizar said:
			
		

> Picked up a few today.
> Close above 17.06 was a break of all-time highs (Friday).




so you only own ZFX recenlty?

thx

MS


----------



## toothfairy (4 December 2006)

michael_selway said:
			
		

> so you only own ZFX recenlty?
> 
> thx
> 
> MS




I own 75% ZFX, 15% MCR & 10% LHG for the last 6 months.
Most brokers / analysts believe in DIVERSIFYING which I don't, I think that's a p'ss weak way of saying " I have no idea".
I have traded ZFX actively (over 15 times) over the last few months, but on an average I bought back @ a higher price than what I sold more often than the other way round. Like paying for an insurance cover.
ZFX is unique in the sense that it depends on zinc prices, rumours of acquisition and low PE that it defies reasoning from technical analysis. (Sorry Nick). Analysts from MacQuarie spent all their time researching have been knocking this share ever since it was $1.85, I bet they have been buying it on the quiet. What a corrupted business. Sorry, I've said enough.


----------



## michael_selway (5 December 2006)

toothfairy said:
			
		

> I own 75% ZFX, 15% MCR & 10% LHG for the last 6 months.
> Most brokers / analysts believe in DIVERSIFYING which I don't, I think that's a p'ss weak way of saying " I have no idea".
> I have traded ZFX actively (over 15 times) over the last few months, but on an average I bought back @ a higher price than what I sold more often than the other way round. Like paying for an insurance cover.
> ZFX is unique in the sense that it depends on zinc prices, rumours of acquisition and low PE that it defies reasoning from technical analysis. (Sorry Nick). Analysts from MacQuarie spent all their time researching have been knocking this share ever since it was $1.85, I bet they have been buying it on the quiet. What a corrupted business. Sorry, I've said enough.




Merill Lynch is the worse, they have a sell on ZFX for a long time now and still do, but every now then they become "substantial holders" of ZFX (see annoucements)

thx

MS


----------



## spitrader1 (5 December 2006)

michael_selway said:
			
		

> Merill Lynch is the worse, they have a sell on ZFX for a long time now and still do, but every now then they become "substantial holders" of ZFX (see annoucements)
> 
> thx
> 
> MS



Michael, you need to read the substantials more carfeully mate.

The actuall end holder of the ZFX securities is Blackrock and ML international. These are completely independent of the broking house ML Australia and its recommendations.


----------



## nizar (5 December 2006)

michael_selway said:
			
		

> so you only own ZFX recenlty?
> 
> thx
> 
> MS





Yep. Had it last year, bought at 2.00 and sold at 3.25 (around august). Knew nothing about zinc, and nothing about trading, i just thought hey 60% in 1 month thats pretty good, and that was the end of it.

In any case, im pretty confident i owned KZL before you


----------



## MiningGuru (5 December 2006)

Looks like it's taking a bit of a breather today!!

Not surprising.

Could be a good day to pick up some!


----------



## dlineinvestor (5 December 2006)

Zinc prices rising ! Will it reach $19.00 before Xmas !!


----------



## stoxclimber (6 December 2006)

Might reach 19 tomorrow!


----------



## chops_a_must (6 December 2006)

stoxclimber said:
			
		

> Might reach 19 tomorrow!



It might. It will be interesting to see where the next point of resistance will be. I'm guessing $20, but it depends on the zinc price. Fundamentals might be finally starting to catch up with this one.

Interestingly, when Alan Kohler started putting his zinc charts up some time back, and ZFX was about $14 or $15 for the first time, he was saying that some people are speculating that it will reach $25 near term. I kind of laughed at the time. Now I'm not so sure. But then again, Kohler has been saying that these resource stocks have been massively undervalued for a long time.

I don't really have an out price for this one, which is kind of silly you will tell me. But the SP could really go anywhere. For me, it's more of a matter of choosing a time with this one. But when?


----------



## Fab (6 December 2006)

Sign are good for today but RSI and Bollingger band shows that ZFX might be getting close to being overbought. At least that is how I am reading it.


----------



## wayneL (6 December 2006)

Zinifex is listed in the US on the Pink Sheets and the chart can be viewed on Yahoo Finance http://finance.yahoo.com/q/bc?s=ZFEXF.PK&t=3m&l=on&z=l&q=c&c=

Might give you a lead for the days trading.


----------



## borat (6 December 2006)

at what level do we think there will be consolidation in ZFX? taken a fair drop over the last 2 sessions, to be expected with it's bullish run...


----------



## Fab (6 December 2006)

Correcting today I guess that was expected


----------



## niknah (6 December 2006)

The zinc warehouse level has gone up a little, first time in a while...

http://www.kitcometals.com/charts/zinc_historical_large.html


----------



## Fab (6 December 2006)

That is pretty small. I guess zfx had to correct after such a big run


----------



## chops_a_must (6 December 2006)

Just profit taking. And I think someone said the chart was looking gappy before, so the chances of it coming back down were high.


----------



## chops_a_must (7 December 2006)

Was just on CNBC as the world's #1 fattest cash cow. Might be a great ramp. Bring in some foreign dollars for this one. Talking about a large upside still. I'll try and find it online somewhere for you guys.


----------



## Fab (7 December 2006)

What's happenning is it still profit taking ??


----------



## borat (7 December 2006)

chops_a_must said:
			
		

> Was just on CNBC as the world's #1 fattest cash cow. Might be a great ramp. Bring in some foreign dollars for this one. Talking about a large upside still. I'll try and find it online somewhere for you guys.




Hey Chops, you find that article?...


----------



## Fab (7 December 2006)

Sounds like a very good annoucement today


----------



## niknah (7 December 2006)

Just sold mine today.

warehouse levels have been going up, I brought it because I thought zinc would run out soon, might be turning around now.  But I'm just an amateur, could be wrong.


----------



## traderandy (7 December 2006)

Indeed.
Nice timely announcement to arrest the slide.  Sellers drying up again


----------



## Fab (7 December 2006)

traderandy said:
			
		

> Indeed.
> Nice timely announcement to arrest the slide.  Sellers drying up again



Yep very good annoucement indeed. I don't understand the slide anyway except some profit taking as the zinc price is still going up


----------



## Fab (8 December 2006)

I am wondering what are the thought on how ZFX will perfom today. I am guessing not very well as zinc price went strongly down overnight


----------



## Halba (8 December 2006)

zinc stockpile going up appears to be pretty short term

if you look at the long term trends, it is well down, and i expect the drawdowns to continue early next year...its xmas time and drawdowns going down is not surprising


----------



## Fab (8 December 2006)

Ok let's say the price correction might be for the short term I guess the good news happened yesterday with the annoucement of ZFX getting involved in another mine


----------



## traderandy (8 December 2006)

Good news or not, it just got caned on the open...doh!


----------



## Fab (8 December 2006)

Yep I believe it is because zinc price went down storngly overnight. Probably short term correction


----------



## astojic86 (8 December 2006)

hey this looks like an interesting article

any of you read this before?

I currently hold 22k of zfx 

http://www.silverstockreport.com/email/zinc_mystery.html


----------



## astojic86 (8 December 2006)

From Hot copper: another poster not me       


fundamentals continue to suggest that is just a very short term weakness

Market Analysis: Zinc



http://www.gfms-metalsconsulting.com/market_analysis_zinc.htm

Market Briefing - December 7, 2006

Despite a dearth in new fundamental news, zinc prices continue to find support around $4,500/tonne. The reason behind this, as with the nickel market, remains the continued drawdown in stocks, currently down around 85,750 tonnes (Dec 5) having fallen 78% year-to-date, and at their lowest level since 1991. Following the loss of a third of LME stocks stored at the Singapore warehouse (falling to 9,800 from 15,300 tonnes reported a month ago), premiums there have crept higher to the $45-55/tonne range.

China�s galvanized output growth supports consumption
The latest ILZSG data shows that over the first nine months of the year world zinc consumption is up 4.3% year-on-year at 8.208m tonnes. As per usual, China remains by far the largest consumer at 2.304m tonnes, up 6.5% year-on-year. According to Antaike, domestic demand within China for high quality die-casting zinc alloy remains robust, due to continued support from the autocycle and automobile sectors, the latter seeing 25% growth over the first ten months of the year. In addition demand is also receiving support from strong growth in China�s battery sector. The organization reports a 43% year-on-year rise in the China�s output of galvanized sheet over the first eight months of the year, and it seems likely production will exceed 10m tonnes this year. With this in mind, Antaike is forecasting a 9.7% year-on-year increase to China�s zinc consumption this year to 3.38m tonnes.


----------



## Lert (8 December 2006)

Well, for better or worse I (my super fund that is) hopped aboard ZFX today for the first time at 16.82..  Wish me luck, hoping only a short term downturn and up again on Monday..


----------



## Fab (8 December 2006)

Lert said:
			
		

> Well, for better or worse I (my super fund that is) hopped aboard ZFX today for the first time at 16.82..  Wish me luck, hoping only a short term downturn and up again on Monday..





This could be a good move as a lot of people seems to think this very short term correction. Also US job data overnight should set the trend


----------



## Sean K (8 December 2006)

Breaking $17 was untidy, but give it a little bit of width on this pull back. $17 (ish) might still be support. This could be a chance to pick it up. Support also at the next 2 downward dollar marks. 

Read a few reports about Zn today and all say short term correction, medium term bull into next year. Maybe pull back late 07. But, what do analysts know?

Just darn wish I had have been on Zinc and Nickel 3 years ago!!

One the bull side the stronger for longer case has not been discounted. The Dragon and the....what's India?...the Ganesh?...might just keep demand pumping for another 20 years....


----------



## wayneL (8 December 2006)

kennas said:
			
		

> Breaking $17 was untidy, but give it a little bit of width on this pull back. $17 (ish) might still be support. This could be a chance to pick it up. Support also at the next 2 downward dollar marks.
> 
> Read a few reports about Zn today and all say short term correction, medium term bull into next year. Maybe pull back late 07. But, what do analysts know?
> 
> ...



See Image\/


----------



## Sean K (8 December 2006)

wayneL said:
			
		

> See Image\/



 

No. Thanks Wayne. 

I struggle with this though because Zn is in a really strong position. I can't see a downward trend lasting very long at all. If your EW count is correct then we're in for an a, b, c, downward trend no?


----------



## wayneL (8 December 2006)

kennas said:
			
		

> No. Thanks Wayne.
> 
> I struggle with this though because Zn is in a really strong position. I can't see a downward trend lasting very long at all. If your EW count is correct then we're in for an a, b, c, downward trend no?




Not all corrective waves go down a lot. Wave b of a flat can actually go higher than wave 5 of the impulse and still be "corrective".

As to whether my count is correct? LOL Stranger things have happened!


----------



## Sean K (8 December 2006)

wayneL said:
			
		

> Not all corrective waves go down a lot. Wave b of a flat can actually go higher than wave 5 of the impulse and still be "corrective".
> 
> As to whether my count is correct? LOL Stranger things have happened!



Perhaps those waves will hit the $15 and $16 support points?


----------



## alankew (8 December 2006)

Is whats happening at the moment maily due to ins rising and obviously Zn going down.In other words even if Zinc goes up overnight the fact that stocks have risen counteracts the positive effect of the price rising.Strange how PEM has held up so well compared to ZFX and KZL-unfortunately hold all 3 and not enough PEM to offset the effects of the other two


----------



## rederob (8 December 2006)

Lert said:
			
		

> Well, for better or worse I (my super fund that is) hopped aboard ZFX today for the first time at 16.82..  Wish me luck, hoping only a short term downturn and up again on Monday..



Lert
Learn to see through the "noise".
This is an essential corrective phase for zinc (and related equities) after a massive 30% rise in a month to Early November.
Overbought will soon translate into oversold and the buyers will be back in.
However, There is still a little more turbulance ahead before we are in clear waters again.
If it's in your superfund, then just look at the weekly charts for the next few months.


----------



## 2020hindsight (8 December 2006)

wayneL said:
			
		

> Image



wayne , you make reference to "FWIW"
now I've been racking my brain here
"f***ing windy in Wellington"
"f*** wit  I was"
"favourite wins in Wagga"

maybe yuo could put me outta my misery here 

btw LERT , you sound like you is in the same predicament as me ... SMSF etc ... I have about 5 (maybe 10) years to turn a (very) small amount into a small fortune 

like the old joke - "how do you invest to end up with a small fortune? "
"start with a big one " 

PS Rederob - hope you're right about the long term trend in zinc - i.e. we're not going down the zinc here   btw, I'd prefer to bet on you being right than the aussies winning the next test


----------



## 3 veiws of a secret (8 December 2006)

2020hindsight said:
			
		

> wayne , you make reference to "FWIW"
> now I've been racking my brain here
> "f***ing windy in Wellington"
> "f*** wit  I was"
> ...




MACD=Moving Average Convergence/Divergence 
FWIW=For What It's Worth .....I do like your version..........."f*** wit  I was"
Zn=Zinc


----------



## Lert (8 December 2006)

2020,  funny thing about SMSF is you cant afford to lose the money specially when a bit long in the tooth like me.. anyway took the plunge 12 months or so ago with a 25 stock portfolio and am up about 35%, could have done better if I'd sold a few dogs but you get that....


----------



## rederob (8 December 2006)

Lert said:
			
		

> .....could have done better if I'd sold a few dogs but you get that....



Obviously you have very expensive dogs for sale.
Do you train them yourself, before you sell them?
Or do they know to go down by themselves?


----------



## astojic86 (11 December 2006)

more good news for zinc prices 

http://www.iranmania.com/News/ArticleView/Default.asp?NewsCode=47897&NewsKind=Current Affairs


if anyone died in the land slide sorry


----------



## astojic86 (11 December 2006)

5 year mine shut down 
http://asx.com.au/asx/statistics/an...rchByCode&releasedDuringCode=W&issuerCode=ZFX
+ 

The disruption at ZFX 

zinc prices should be up again


----------



## astojic86 (11 December 2006)

Debris removing from Anguran mine takes 5 yrs

Saturday, December 09, 2006 -  ©2005 IranMania.com

LONDON, December 9 (IranMania) - Removal of the debris of the landslide in Anguran zinc mine will lead to the closure of the nation’s largest zinc mine for up to four or five years, an expert said, MNA reported.

The landslide in Anguran zinc mine has faced the largest zinc mine project in the whole Middle East with the threat of shutting down for a period of between four and five years, the official said on condition of anonymity. He added that, however, the mine developers maintain that the mine is not facing a serious threat.

Removing the debris from the mine by a private sector contractor could be carried out simultaneously in four fronts. This would result in the completion of the job in 10 to 15 months, the Persian service of ISNA news agency quoted the official as saying on Friday.

However, he added, since the project has been offered to a state contractor, completion of the job is expected to take about five years.

Development operations on the nation’s largest zinc mine has been scheduled to kick off in Zanjan, 300 km west of Tehran, in December. The project is expected to become operational in three years, managing director of Iran Zinc Mines Development Company (IZMDC) had earlier said.

If fully operational, production from Anguran zinc mine would hit 280,000 tons per annum.


----------



## bigdog (12 December 2006)

Two ASX ANN today

Zinifex and Umicore seek to create the world’s leading producer of zinc metal Umicore and Zinifex today announced that they had signed a Memorandum of Understanding (MOU) with the objective of combining their respective zinc smelting and alloying businesses.  The combination of these businesses would lead to the creation of the world’s pre-eminent zinc metal producer with operations on four continents.

It is the intention of Umicore and Zinifex that the new company would operate as an independent entity from its inception with its own Board of Directors and Executive Committee. The jointly owned company would be incorporated in Belgium, have its global headquarters in London and have regional support centres in Melbourne (Australia) and Balen (Belgium). Executive management will be drawn jointly from the two companies. Paul Fowler, currently Chief Operating Officer at Zinifex, is Chief Executive Officer elect and Heinz Eigner, currently Controller of the Zinc Specialties business group at Umicore, is Chief Financial Officer elect.

 8:30 AM   Zinifex & Umicore Investor Presentation 
http://www.asx.com.au/asx/statistics/showAnnouncementPDF.do?idsID=00677175

8:30 AM  Zinifex & Umicore to Create World's Leading Producer of Zinc 
http://www.asx.com.au/asx/statistics/showAnnouncementPDF.do?idsID=00677174


----------



## rwkni1 (12 December 2006)

This announcement looks the goods, now they can focus on the far more profitable mining side of the business, while ditching their smelting assets in a strong market. I'm thinking some leakage of this news last night is what pushed ZFX up so strongly yesterday.


----------



## Fab (12 December 2006)

rwkni1 said:
			
		

> This announcement looks the goods, now they can focus on the far more profitable mining side of the business, while ditching their smelting assets in a strong market. I'm thinking some leakage of this news last night is what pushed ZFX up so strongly yesterday.



Yep indeed it sounds very good to me too. I think it bounced back on the MACD yesterday not because of leakage


----------



## swingstar (12 December 2006)

$19.40 potential short-term top (100% of wave .iii--wave .v can't exceed this as it'll then be the shortest). 

Larger picture, may be ending wave 3 of (5).


----------



## eMark (12 December 2006)

Thanks Swingstar, very interesting indeed.

Ahh wouldn't it be grand to be able to have some idea as to what Zinc prices might do tonight


----------



## Freeballinginawetsuit (12 December 2006)

ZFX is a monster, shut for a few unexpected days at one of their concerns, with a mere 30 million in lost revenue  , theyve gotta be one of the biggest 'License to print Money' outfits going around!.


----------



## Lert (12 December 2006)

Yeah, and still on a PE of about 8... Only bought in on Friday and up 7.5% already inspite of the Century Mine problem, which only lasted 30 mins or so before the buyers scrambled back..


----------



## Nick Radge (12 December 2006)

Low close, increased volume..sellers are in. That said, not sure how long it will stay that way...


----------



## michael_selway (13 December 2006)

Nick Radge said:
			
		

> Low close, increased volume..sellers are in. That said, not sure how long it will stay that way...




Hi Nick so you Bullish or Bearish on ZFX technically atm?

thx

MS


----------



## swingstar (13 December 2006)

michael_selway said:
			
		

> Hi Nick so you Bullish or Bearish on ZFX technically atm?
> 
> thx
> 
> MS




For Nick's count to be validated, the high at point v can't be breached, and we would need to see a further decline past the low of wave a. 

Short-term bearish, in other words...


----------



## Nick Radge (14 December 2006)

That's correct Swing. The most probable count is that we'll start tracking back $16.35 as a minimum. That would be the typical retracement although it could extend further. 

If we move straight higher from here without the retracement it would suggest wave-v has extended higher in an ending diagonal and would then retrace. 

Either way, we should continue to travel higher as we're only 3/5's the way through the trend. I think the term "bearish" may be a bit strong. Retracement is better.


----------



## barney (15 December 2006)

Considering how strong the general market has been, there is a little negativety creeping in from some analysts re Zinc and other metals. Wonder if ZFX offloading their smelting business will affect the sp at some stage .... Daily report from "Basemetals" ......

Basemetals.com analyst William Adams said in a Thursday morning report that as such it was not surprising that copper had started to slip as stocks had been rising steadily for a number of months, canceled warrants were at a low level and the nearby spreads were in contango. "Likewise, as soon as the strong fundamental support for lead, zinc and nickel, show signs of easing, with stock rises, the buying was put on hold and it looks as the profit-takers were keen to take what was on the table in case the market stalled. Indeed their profit-taking was enough to trigger a stall, especially in lead," he said. Lead was bid at $1,645/mt at 0957 GMT, unchanged from its previous close, while nickel gained $500 to be bid at $33,600/mt. Tin pulled back $75 to $10,850/mt, while zinc climbed up $40 to $4,330/mt on Thursday morning. Aluminium alloy dipped $5 to be bid at $2,315/mt, while North American alloy was bid at the same level, also down $5 from its previous close.

Adams said although the market had got used to these high price levels it was important to remember that these were "exceptionally strong" prices for the metals and therefore they needed ongoing strong fundamental developments to support current prices. "So with the relentless stock falls now no longer evident, it looks as though the dynamics of the market have changed. In addition, with growing concerns over the demand outlook, especially in the US, consumers no doubt think the metals are switching from a seller's market to a buyer's market," said Adams, adding that although there were risks to supply from strikes and maintenance shutdowns, in this environment, buyers might feel in no need to restock. "In the near term it looks as though prices are in consolidation mode and that may well take prices lower, especially if there are still longs looking to square up ahead of year-end," he said.


----------



## forsoil (20 December 2006)

*help needed from new member*

I am a new member here, and thinking of loading some ZFX.  Can anyone inform me the type of Zn roaster used in Zinifex's Clarksville site?  It seems this is the only site without profit.  Thank you very much!

FSoil


----------



## MiningGuru (29 December 2006)

ZFX has now pushed through a new all time high today. 

Good sign for a further push to blue sky territory.

Will easily above $20 very soon


----------



## barney (29 December 2006)

MiningGuru said:
			
		

> ZFX has now pushed through a new all time high today.
> 
> Good sign for a further push to blue sky territory.
> 
> Will easily above $20 very soon






Howdy MG,  You may well be right, but just to keep the contrarian view alive, ZFX traded up last three days on Decreasing Volume, and there is a substantial divergance on Price verses Momentum .............. I will be treading very carefully, particularly in a week or two after the christmas/new year euphoria dies off a little .............. Fundamentals often get left outside the front door on ZFX imo. All the best, Barney.


----------



## gresim25 (30 December 2006)

barney, at least you could do your technical analysis correctly, maybe than you would not need to 'ignite' contrarian view...perhaps you need a more detailed charts preview *other than incredible charts)? you could clearly see that the zfx traded above the donward/consolidation pattern starrted from dec 8th & that it was broken on dec 28th' & still 2 buying days held above it


----------



## barney (30 December 2006)

gresim25 said:
			
		

> barney, at least you could do your technical analysis correctly, maybe than you would not need to 'ignite' contrarian view...perhaps you need a more detailed charts preview *other than incredible charts)? you could clearly see that the zfx traded above the donward/consolidation pattern starrted from dec 8th & that it was broken on dec 28th' & still 2 buying days held above it




Hey Gresim,  I'll take that on the chin ........Everyone around here knows I'm fairly new to TA, and I'm sure they take that into account when adjudicating on my charting abilities       As I mentioned in a couple of earlier posts, I'm more interested in trying to keep a "balance" on the constant over-positive slant on zinc stocks in general so the novice punters (of which I unhappily admit I am one) dont get lulled into thinking that ZFX or any other stock is a "sure thing" ..... The drop from 10th to 17th November is a good case in point  ie ZFX was $14.50 a little over a month ago ......... Essentially not much has changed in that time except the quickly rising SP.  Not trying to ignite a contrarian view; just pointing out that caution might be  prudent ........... Cheers, Barney.


----------



## coyotte (30 December 2006)

MiningGuru said:
			
		

> ZFX has now pushed through a new all time high today.
> 
> Good sign for a further push to blue sky territory.
> 
> Will easily above $20 very soon





WHY ??? 
"the $20 statement"


----------



## coyotte (30 December 2006)

Nothing WRONG with your analysis Barney

Higher prices on declining Vol is a topping  method in it's own right .

Have U tried Twiggs Money Flow @ IC 
can be a handy indicator in these situations

Happy and a Safe New Year
 Cheers


----------



## machi (30 December 2006)

barney said:
			
		

> Hey Gresim,  I'll take that on the chin ........Everyone around here knows I'm fairly new to TA, and I'm sure they take that into account when adjudicating on my charting abilities       As I mentioned in a couple of earlier posts, I'm more interested in trying to keep a "balance" on the constant over-positive slant on zinc stocks in general so the novice punters (of which I unhappily admit I am one) dont get lulled into thinking that ZFX or any other stock is a "sure thing" ..... The drop from 10th to 17th November is a good case in point  ie ZFX was $14.50 a little over a month ago ......... Essentially not much has changed in that time except the quickly rising SP.  Not trying to ignite a contrarian view; just pointing out that caution might be  prudent ........... Cheers, Barney.




Don't worry about him Barney, I reckon that is a good piece of analysis. In fact this whole market is looking rather toppy IMO. Personally I think we are in for a different market next year compared to the strongly trending one we have had the last 3 years. I am no professional, just say what I see. But I am playing the short side next year as I feel this market will undergo it's biggest correction since 2003.

Keep up the great work Barney


----------



## coyotte (30 December 2006)

gresim25 said:
			
		

> barney, at least you could do your technical analysis correctly, maybe than you would not need to 'ignite' contrarian view...perhaps you need a more detailed charts preview *other than incredible charts)? you could clearly see that the zfx traded above the donward/consolidation pattern starrted from dec 8th & that it was broken on dec 28th' & still 2 buying days held above it





Up day with Narrow Spreads with low Volume 

A new definition of buying ?

Where / How did U come by this one ?

That High Vol / Narrow Spread day would make me wary 

Cheers


----------



## reece55 (30 December 2006)

Coyotte
HAHAHA...... No, $20 IMO for sure........

Guys, have a look at the definition of a false break...... As indicated, low volume, tight range - this stock is going up due to the fact that the sellers are busy down at Portsea for the weekend..... watch on Tuesday....


----------



## chops_a_must (30 December 2006)

barney said:
			
		

> The drop from 10th to 17th November is a good case in point  ie ZFX was $14.50 a little over a month ago ......... Essentially not much has changed in that time except the quickly rising SP.  Not trying to ignite a contrarian view; just pointing out that caution might be  prudent ........... Cheers, Barney.



Not much has changed apart from them announcing the merger and becoming the world's largest zinc producer.

It is running out of steam, but I don't think it will head incredibly low like some people have predicted. I'm thinking between $16-$17 as a correction price.


----------



## michael_selway (30 December 2006)

chops_a_must said:
			
		

> Not much has changed apart from them announcing the merger and becoming the world's largest zinc producer.
> 
> It is running out of steam, but I don't think it will head incredibly low like some people have predicted. I'm thinking between $16-$17 as a correction price.




chops do you hold any ZFX atm?

thx

MS


----------



## chops_a_must (30 December 2006)

michael_selway said:
			
		

> chops do you hold any ZFX atm?
> 
> thx
> 
> MS



Yes, and if it does dip again, I'll be looking at getting more.


----------



## machi (30 December 2006)

chops_a_must said:
			
		

> Not much has changed apart from them announcing the merger and becoming the world's largest zinc producer.
> 
> It is running out of steam, but I don't think it will head incredibly low like some people have predicted. I'm thinking between $16-$17 as a correction price.





Maybe you should take a look at some of the other world indices as well, instead of just focusing on the fundementals. Next year IMO will surprise many, For starters a rebound in the USD next year if it happens(yes this market is now churning), will mean bugger all chance of metals in general of continuing this trend of the last 3 years. If not a major correction then at least a pause in the uptrned with a major consolidation. Even that will be enough to scare the hell out of medium/to long term holders. Most won't have the nerve to ride it out, it's just human nature.


If ZFX can double in 6 months, then it can just as can just as easily fall 50% in 12 months.  If you don't realise this then you should not involve yourself in the market. Or do you think markets only travel in one direction?????


----------



## chops_a_must (30 December 2006)

machi said:
			
		

> If not a major correction then at least a pause in the uptrned with a major consolidation. Even that will be enough to scare the hell out of medium/to long term holders. Most won't have the nerve to ride it out, it's just human nature.
> 
> 
> If ZFX can double in 6 months, then it can just as can just as easily fall 50% in 12 months.  If you don't realise this then you should not involve yourself in the market. Or do you think markets only travel in one direction?????



I'm not a trader, so I look at medium/ long term outcomes. Zinc demand/ supply isn't likely to come into balance until at least 2008 on conservative estimates.

So you really think it's P/E ratio will go below 3?

I'm not expecting continuing record base metal prices, but even if they do drop significantly, it doesn't mean that these mining companies aren't still making a killing.


----------



## reece55 (30 December 2006)

Chops
There is a good reason why ZFX has a low PE - the life of its mines are not very long. Why do you think they are attempting to invest in multiple juniors (TZN and others) - they need to find a new supply of zinc to fuel the business in the future. I wouldn't be basing my valuation on a PE comparison here - just wouldn't be apples with apples.

IMO ZFX will have a breather and head back to about 16.00, or at least in that zone...... then we will see what happens from there.....

It is interesting to note that AXA have increase their sub holding by 1% at a price of $18.00 - they obviously rate the stock in the future..... technically however, it looks weak......

Cheers
Reece


----------



## chops_a_must (30 December 2006)

reece55 said:
			
		

> IMO ZFX will have a breather and head back to about 16.00, or at least in that zone...... then we will see what happens from there.....



So how is that different from what I have said above?


----------



## reece55 (30 December 2006)

Sorry Chops, didn't see your post before indicating your prediction of a fall to about the 16-17 mark....... All I was indicating was that a PE methodology here needs to be put into perspective with the fundamental values of the Company...

Cheers
Reece


----------



## chops_a_must (30 December 2006)

reece55 said:
			
		

> Sorry Chops, didn't see your post before indicating your prediction of a fall to about the 16-17 mark....... All I was indicating was that a PE methodology here needs to be put into perspective with the fundamental values of the Company...
> 
> Cheers
> Reece



Yes, I think they realise that their mine life is the biggest problem. But if you believe their announcements, mine life should extend beyond 2020.

http://imagesignal.comsec.com.au/asxdata/20061127/pdf/00671688.pdf

See page 28.


----------



## mmmmining (30 December 2006)

chops_a_must said:
			
		

> Yes, I think they realise that their mine life is the biggest problem. But if you believe their announcements, mine life should extend beyond 2020.
> 
> http://imagesignal.comsec.com.au/asxdata/20061127/pdf/00671688.pdf
> 
> See page 28.



It remind me a couple of years ago when JBM is around $4, with PE of 5-6, and 8% dividend. I did not buy it because of the estimated 5yr mining life. It ends up as big mistake obviously.

Finally I realize that big mining companies always has the edge to find more deposits when management is good enough. The have the money, people and skill.


----------



## Rafa (31 December 2006)

mmmmining said:
			
		

> Finally I realize that big mining companies always has the edge to find more deposits when management is good enough. The have the money, people and skill.




Exactly, Cash in hand is what matters.... and  ZFX is a cash cow of the highest order.

But technically, it is looking weak... 
But each to their own, you each have your own trading plan.... trade it accodingly.


----------



## rederob (31 December 2006)

mmmmining said:
			
		

> It remind me a couple of years ago when JBM is around $4, with PE of 5-6, and 8% dividend. I did not buy it because of the estimated 5yr mining life. It ends up as big mistake obviously.
> 
> Finally I realize that big mining companies always has the edge to find more deposits when management is good enough. The have the money, people and skill.



I kept reading that PDN was overpriced, overpriced, and overpriced, so left it alone last year (2005).
This year I bought into PDN, twice, on retraces and I still hear people saying it's overpriced.
If I see PDN retrace again, I will buy more again.

ZFX is in a different camp to PDN - base metals versus "energy".
However, if I were asked if it was worth buying ZFX at its present price, my answer would be yes.
However, I prefer to buy the dips and personally would not buy into ZFX above $17 at the moment.
That said, there is nothing saying ZFX will get down to $17.
Technically, it's over-extended and needs to consolidate in the broad $15 to $18 range before making a concerted attack on $20.
Then again, there are some chartists that see a very low price for ZFX in the near/medium term.
They could be right, too.
But then again...... ....... ......


----------



## Fab (1 January 2007)

Indeed I believe in ZFX too and I am playing to buy into it between $13 -$15 if it ever go back there.
I bought more PDN on friday and I think that they will go much higher if production ramp up as per expected. It might drop big time if there is any delay even if it is a small one as the market valuation is already very high for PDN


----------



## Rafa (2 January 2007)

what do we make of today cosolodation above the previous all time high...

i am certainly surprised by it given zinc was down a bit overnight?


----------



## MiningGuru (2 January 2007)

ZFX has now hit the $19 mark and still looks strong.

I think that it is still underpriced with a low P/E

Will continue to move up in the traditionally strong first half of Jan market up towards and above $20.


----------



## Rafa (2 January 2007)

Yeah, certainly trading at very cheap multiples, but atleast i can understand this one...


What i don't understand is why BHP is trading at a PE ration of around 8, less or about the same as ZFX!!!


----------



## MiningGuru (2 January 2007)

Finished very strongly.

Ended on the high for the day.

Very strong signs for a continued push upwards over the next few days!


----------



## michael_selway (2 January 2007)

MiningGuru said:
			
		

> Finished very strongly.
> 
> Ended on the high for the day.
> 
> Very strong signs for a continued push upwards over the next few days!




Not over a few days, but this whole year i think

Earnings and Dividends Forecast (cents per share) 
2006 2007 2008 2009 
EPS 219.9 345.9 266.3 152.8 
DPS 80.0 160.7 106.5 69.0 

thx

MS


----------



## chops_a_must (2 January 2007)

Rafa said:
			
		

> what do we make of today cosolodation above the previous all time high...
> 
> i am certainly surprised by it given zinc was down a bit overnight?



And the techies come a cropper on ZFX again. Certainly is a hard stock to predict the movements of. 

Maybe people are becoming convinced of a long term gain, and reluctant to sell at this price?


----------



## machi (2 January 2007)

chops_a_must said:
			
		

> And the techies come a cropper on ZFX again. Certainly is a hard stock to predict the movements of.
> 
> Maybe people are becoming convinced of a long term gain, and reluctant to sell at this price?[/QUOTE
> 
> ...


----------



## abucs (3 January 2007)

How accurate do you suppose the future years EPS forecasts are ?
With the EPS set to decline over the next 3 years, what are the possibile good news stories that will surprise on the upside ?     

Certainly done well recently for all involved.


----------



## rederob (3 January 2007)

machi said:
			
		

> Trends like these have a habit of moving up fast only to be smashed in a matter of a few weeks selling. Easy come easy go as they say.



I'm not sure I would call a few years of trend "fast".
Anyone still on ZFX having bought in 2005 will probably have the stock paid for in dividends returned in the next 2 years: The rest will be profit.
I also think the notion of ZFX's price being "smashed" in a matter of weeks is about as probable as man landing on Mars in the same time frame.
Any techies wanting to put the Elliott Wave counts up?


----------



## silence (3 January 2007)

This year's dividends aren't going to vanish overnight. So I see no reason for the price to get smashed. Maybe a short term correction to $14-16 but we'll have to see what happens.


----------



## machi (3 January 2007)

rederob said:
			
		

> I'm not sure I would call a few years of trend "fast".
> Anyone still on ZFX having bought in 2005 will probably have the stock paid for in dividends returned in the next 2 years: The rest will be profit.
> I also think the notion of ZFX's price being "smashed" in a matter of weeks is about as probable as man landing on Mars in the same time frame.
> Any techies wanting to put the Elliott Wave counts up?





Don't get too cocky now,you were very wrong on Gold and the techies did get it right with the EW charts or have we forgotten?????


----------



## rederob (3 January 2007)

machi said:
			
		

> Don't get too cocky now,you were very wrong on Gold and the techies did get it right with the EW charts or have we forgotten?????



If you read the gold thread carefully you will find I was tipping gold to go to $700 in 2006 - did the techies have it dead and buried? -  and $850 in 2007, before ducati chimed in with his obfuscation.
In fact, a year ago when I began posting here gold was only in the $500s and I was "warned" about possible ramping from the likes of Rich Kid and WayneL.
I was so wrong, apparently, that along with tipping silver and gold as "buys", I also added "zinc" to the mix. 
ZFX was trading at around $8 at that stage and I must apologise back then for my cockiness too.


----------



## machi (3 January 2007)

rederob said:
			
		

> If you read the gold thread carefully you will find I was tipping gold to go to $700 in 2006 - did the techies have it dead and buried? -  and $850 in 2007, before ducati chimed in with his obfuscation.
> In fact, a year ago when I began posting here gold was only in the $500s and I was "warned" about possible ramping from the likes of Rich Kid and WayneL.
> I was so wrong, apparently, that along with tipping silver and gold as "buys", I also added "zinc" to the mix.
> ZFX was trading at around $8 at that stage and I must apologise back then for my cockiness too.





I did bother to read the Gold Thread carefully RED. All I saw was chartists posting EW charts calling for a top in April and May of 2006 were spot on to a few dollars within the peak also tracked the price decline  pretty close thereafter!!

https://www.aussiestockforums.com/forums/showthread.php?t=2366&page=23&pp=20

Thereafter you went into hibernation for a while but the duc caught up with you.
No doubt a similar story will be told again with zinc


----------



## Fab (3 January 2007)

ZFX should go down today as the zinc on LME went down quiet strongly overnight


----------



## rederob (3 January 2007)

machi said:
			
		

> I did bother to read the Gold Thread carefully RED. All I saw was chartists posting EW charts calling for a top in April and May of 2006 were spot on to a few dollars within the peak also tracked the price decline  pretty close thereafter!!
> 
> https://www.aussiestockforums.com/forums/showthread.php?t=2366&page=23&pp=20
> 
> ...



Read the posts in January and February.
I, too, can call a "top" within a month of it happening.
As for going into hibernation - well, I actually transferred considerable sums into zinc and uranium equities after gold topped, although I still hold about 20k LHG shares plius a few other smaller gold equities that continue to do ok.
Anyway, if the techies were so good in April and May, why were they sitting on their hands early in the year?
So, just to allow you (and ducati) to call me whatever names, I am forecasting much higher silver, gold and zinc prices this year (2007) than last year.


----------



## machi (3 January 2007)

rederob said:
			
		

> Read the posts in January and February.
> I, too, can call a "top" within a month of it happening.
> As for going into hibernation - well, I actually transferred considerable sums into zinc and uranium equities after gold topped, although I still hold about 20k LHG shares plius a few other smaller gold equities that continue to do ok.
> Anyway, if the techies were so good in April and May, why were they sitting on their hands early in the year?
> So, just to allow you (and ducati) to call me whatever names, I am forecasting much higher silver, gold and zinc prices this year (2007) than last year.




Well your projections for a top in Gold were out by a country mile. The peak did not come in Jan or Feb, it came in May and chartists on that  thread were calling for a top in late April. Not bad.

If my memory serves me correctly you were calling for $800 US for Gold by December 2006. Instead Gold was $629 at Dec 2006. You got it wrong Rederob, badly. just admit it. There is no shame in it, everyone who is involved in markets gets it wrong. This is the hardest game to play and even the best money managers get it wrong.

As for zinc rising this year, I don’t know, but if your Gold call is any indication you should go into hibernation from this thread as well within a few months as well.


----------



## rederob (3 January 2007)

machi said:
			
		

> If my memory serves me correctly you were calling for $800 US for Gold by December 2006. Instead Gold was $629 at Dec 2006. You got it wrong Rederob, badly. just admit it. There is no shame in it, everyone who is involved in markets gets it wrong. This is the hardest game to play and even the best money managers get it wrong.
> 
> As for zinc rising this year, I don’t know, but if your Gold call is any indication you should go into hibernation from this thread as well within a few months as well.



Machi
You clearly did not read the thread from when I began posting on gold.
If you had, and had also taken a position on gold/equities you would have done very well.
I also never suggested gold would top in 2006 - far from it.
But I certainly was "in" very early and was being attacked from all quarters.
Yet gold rose another $200.  And it will likely do the same this year - my $850 is still on the line!
Please don't waste time in this thread, on ZFX, where I have posted views *before * the event which have since come to fruition.
Why don't you "put it on the line" with some numbers and dates for ZFX.
I will propose $23 before May 2007.


----------



## Kauri (3 January 2007)

rederob said:
			
		

> I'm not sure I would call a few years of trend "fast".
> Anyone still on ZFX having bought in 2005 will probably have the stock paid for in dividends returned in the next 2 years: The rest will be profit.
> I also think the notion of ZFX's price being "smashed" in a matter of weeks is about as probable as man landing on Mars in the same time frame.
> Any techies wanting to put the Elliott Wave counts up?[QUOTE/]
> ...


----------



## reece55 (4 January 2007)

Well, interesting day for ZFX - as I previously predicted, a major correction today on high volume. Still maintain my view that we will see the $16 barrier before the end of Jan. Certainly a stock to watch in the comming week.

Quite amusing that we have had no additional post today on ZFX however - yesterday we had predictions of $23 before May! I think the picture is certainly clear after today - the smart money is moving out of this stock.

Cheers
Reece


----------



## Pager (4 January 2007)

I won’t predict were ZFX will go the next few weeks but I think you may be a bit premature reece, 1 bad day for resource stocks doesn’t mean its curtains to this stock cracking $20 in the next few weeks.

Just my


----------



## swingstar (4 January 2007)

Volume was pretty average, although high compared to the previous five days.  

I'm not too worried, I'm still bullish mid-term. If the peak on Tuesday was the end of wave 3, then we're probably in for a complex (sideways) correction. How long... Probably a week or two, going by wave 2 of the same degree's range. Then, for the count (and what appears to be the same of a few EW analysts in this thread) to be validated, we should see another decent move upwards.


----------



## Fab (4 January 2007)

reece55 said:
			
		

> Well, interesting day for ZFX - as I previously predicted, a major correction today on high volume. Still maintain my view that we will see the $16 barrier before the end of Jan. Certainly a stock to watch in the comming week.
> 
> Quite amusing that we have had no additional post today on ZFX however - yesterday we had predictions of $23 before May! I think the picture is certainly clear after today - the smart money is moving out of this stock.
> 
> ...



Well done reece555. I would be interest in your technical analysis on PDN and BHO


----------



## michael_selway (4 January 2007)

reece55 said:
			
		

> Well, interesting day for ZFX - as I previously predicted, a major correction today on high volume. Still maintain my view that we will see the $16 barrier before the end of Jan. Certainly a stock to watch in the comming week.
> 
> Quite amusing that we have had no additional post today on ZFX however - yesterday we had predictions of $23 before May! I think the picture is certainly clear after today - the smart money is moving out of this stock.
> 
> ...




You dotn understand the fundamentals, its still tight the zinc market. It can onyl fall so much, plsu its not overvalued in any way using current PE & fwd PE

Might be "smart money" moving into the stock soon?

thx

MS


----------



## rederob (5 January 2007)

reece55 said:
			
		

> Well, interesting day for ZFX - as I previously predicted, a major correction today on high volume. Still maintain my view that we will see the $16 barrier before the end of Jan. Certainly a stock to watch in the comming week.
> 
> Quite amusing that we have had no additional post today on ZFX however - yesterday we had predictions of $23 before May! I think the picture is certainly clear after today - the smart money is moving out of this stock.
> 
> ...



I added another 1000 ZFX just before market close: Prefer to buy on retraces greater than 5% in a tight market - having regarded $17.60 as a reasonable risk with a probability of the previous $19 high being reclaimed (even a further decline occurs from here {I see downside as low as $15.50 - but not a high probability}).
Given that "before" May equals almost 4 months, and the previous 4 months to date added some $9.50 from low to high, then $23 is not a particularly tall order.


----------



## reece55 (5 January 2007)

Michael
I think I do understand this stock - people might misunderstand me when I say the stock will move to $16.00. This is not because I think the price of zinc will halve tomorrow - clearly there isn't enough supply to move prices this way. But todays close is a clear bear sign - high volume (although admittedly not as high as we have seen on some days) and a close on low for the day. We have also broken the holding pattern the stock that has been in place since December.

Michael, whilst you say that the stock doesn't have a high PE, this is a little misleading. Just remember 2 years ago when ZFX was a $2.00 stock, it had a PE of 6. Today, ZFX still has a PE of around 5.5. What has changed - well, IMO the risk. The zinc price certainly looks to have stalled. Now I am not suggesting it will fall like copper, because the supply is not there to make it fall. But you would have to say that we are at the peak of the zinc price (not sure here though, you could still be a bull). The other thing to remember here is that miners are capital intensive beasts - whilst EPS will be say $3.50 @ y/e (and you have to laugh as the IPO price of $2.00 was paid off in 1 year!!!!!!!!), you would think they wouldn't pay more than a dividend of say $2.00 going forward. Assuming this is maintained (and that is a big assumption), payback using a dividend yield model with a conservative discount rate of 8.5% (and this is very conservative) gives you a payback of 17 years. Hrmmmmm......... see the difference!!!!!! 

Once again, I would be happy for anyone to attempt to convince me otherwise, but i think ZFX is long overdue for a pullback......

Cheers
Reece


----------



## champ2003 (5 January 2007)

reece55 said:
			
		

> Michael
> I think I do understand this stock - people might misunderstand me when I say the stock will move to $16.00. This is not because I think the price of zinc will halve tomorrow - clearly there isn't enough supply to move prices this way. But todays close is a clear bear sign - high volume (although admittedly not as high as we have seen on some days) and a close on low for the day. We have also broken the holding pattern the stock that has been in place since December.
> 
> Michael, whilst you say that the stock doesn't have a high PE, this is a little misleading. Just remember 2 years ago when ZFX was a $2.00 stock, it had a PE of 6. Today, ZFX still has a PE of around 5.5. What has changed - well, IMO the risk. The zinc price certainly looks to have stalled. Now I am not suggesting it will fall like copper, because the supply is not there to make it fall. But you would have to say that we are at the peak of the zinc price (not sure here though, you could still be a bull). The other thing to remember here is that miners are capital intensive beasts - whilst EPS will be say $3.50 @ y/e (and you have to laugh as the IPO price of $2.00 was paid off in 1 year!!!!!!!!), you would think they wouldn't pay more than a dividend of say $2.00 going forward. Assuming this is maintained (and that is a big assumption), payback using a dividend yield model with a conservative discount rate of 8.5% (and this is very conservative) gives you a payback of 17 years. Hrmmmmm......... see the difference!!!!!!
> ...




Let me guess. You currently don't hold ZFX and are hoping to drive the price down to get in at a cheap price ?? 
 Good luck


----------



## reece55 (5 January 2007)

Champ
For the record - no, I do not hold ZFX shares. No, I am not looking to buy any when they become cheap. I will leave it at I obviously have a different view from most ppl on this forum. Let us let the market decide who is right - I respect that everyone has an individual view and it wouldn't be interesting if we all agreed with each other. Hence why it is a forum.

Interesting day today, wide range and finished just about where it was yesterday. Anybody have any views?????

Cheers
Reece


----------



## Sean K (5 January 2007)

reece55 said:
			
		

> Champ
> For the record - no, I do not hold ZFX shares. No, I am not looking to buy any when they become cheap. I will leave it at I obviously have a different view from most ppl on this forum. Let us let the market decide who is right - I respect that everyone has an individual view and it wouldn't be interesting if we all agreed with each other. Hence why it is a forum.
> 
> Interesting day today, wide range and finished just about where it was yesterday. Anybody have any views?????
> ...



Obvious support at $17.00 ish. Seems to be subject to general market sentiment at the moment, zn seems still to be one of the commoditites to be digging up. It's probably due for a breather anyway, last 3 months have been exceptional. Only a drama if you bought 3 days ago I guess......


----------



## chops_a_must (5 January 2007)

reece55 said:
			
		

> Champ
> For the record - no, I do not hold ZFX shares. No, I am not looking to buy any when they become cheap. I will leave it at I obviously have a different view from most ppl on this forum. Let us let the market decide who is right - I respect that everyone has an individual view and it wouldn't be interesting if we all agreed with each other. Hence why it is a forum.
> 
> Interesting day today, wide range and finished just about where it was yesterday. Anybody have any views?????
> ...



I sold out on Thursday afternoon, for two reasons:

1) I didn't like the fact the SP pushed up against the lowering zinc price, with a +2000 number in the inventories, on Wednesday.

2) The afternoon rally that usually eventuates on negative days for ZFX, didn't happen. That's when I sold.

I'm very happy with the profit I made in a short time, and will be looking to buy in when I think it has bottomed out, with greater resources. I'll be looking at a price between 16, and 16.50 to get back in, the level of support above the last one used. But you know, that's just opinion.


----------



## Jay-684 (8 January 2007)

Another down day on the back of falling metals...

hopefully it will pause at around $16 like some have been saying and resume the uptrend


----------



## swingstar (8 January 2007)

Some Fib projections for wave 4 (what I think we're in) suggest around $14.25-15. 

What wave do other EW analysts think we're in? I have only counted on the daily, not intraday.


----------



## Warren Buffet II (8 January 2007)

No very good news here. I guess a wave of lawsuits is coming this way.

Water metal levels prompt Zinifex warning to residents
Mining company Zinifex is warning some residents of Karumba in Queensland's Gulf country not to drink from their rainwater tanks, after checks revealed high "metal" levels. 

Spokesman Jeoffrey Innes says the company is taking responsibility for the problem and will expand the testing program this week. 

Mr Innes says residents will also be offered free blood-tests to determine if there is a problem with lead levels. 

"We still export lead and zinc out of Karumba and it's lead and zinc in the water, so why try to cover up something that, in our thoughts anyway, clearly has our name on it? So let's work with the local residents and resolve the issue," he said. 

"There's a lot of other people in Karumba so we're testing all the other tanks to find out whether it's just a localised thing, or whether it's spread throughout the whole town."

http://www.abc.net.au/news/newsitems/200701/s1822854.htm


----------



## Kauri (8 January 2007)

swingstar said:
			
		

> Some Fib projections for wave 4 (what I think we're in) suggest around $14.25-15.
> 
> What wave do other EW analysts think we're in? I have only counted on the daily, not intraday.




     Swingstar..
                   Hi,   I see it much the same, on the dailys.


----------



## swingstar (8 January 2007)

Kauri, mine is nearly exactly the same... I think Nick's would be too by now which he posted a few weeks back. I've also highlighted bearish RSI divergence. 

With the two Fib projections near each other at around $14.25, and support made there also at wave iv, I think there's a high probability of it ending there. 

Definitely not out of the question, especially if metals continue to fall and we have a decent correction like May.


----------



## wavepicker (8 January 2007)

swingstar said:
			
		

> Kauri, mine is nearly exactly the same... I think Nick's would be too by now which he posted a few weeks back. I've also highlighted bearish RSI divergence.
> 
> With the two Fib projections near each other at around $14.25, and support made there also at wave iv, I think there's a high probability of it ending there.
> 
> Definitely not out of the question, especially if metals continue to fall and we have a decent correction like May.




Hi guys,

Ever considered that the 5th wave may have already finished??


----------



## Kauri (8 January 2007)

wavepicker said:
			
		

> Hi guys,
> 
> Ever considered that the 5th wave may have already finished??




     Hi wavepicker,
 Yes.......  I have 2 smaller degree 5's completed, and if the (3) wave is indeed a (5) then the price action falling/not falling through the 13.50 level that I have marked as a (1) will help verify the count either way.


----------



## wavepicker (8 January 2007)

Kauri said:
			
		

> Hi wavepicker,
> Yes.......  I have 2 smaller degree 5's completed, and if the (3) wave is indeed a (5) then the price action falling/not falling through the 13.50 level that I have marked as a (1) will help verify the count either way.




Would imagine this should find support at approx $15 plus or minus 50c to thereafter mount a reasonable countertrend whereby another short position maybe on the cards.

This short trade was great they don't come much easier than this

Cheers


----------



## swingstar (8 January 2007)

I have counted the end of wave 3, either of a wave (3) or (5). Mine differs with Kauri's where he's counted a wave in the middle of July. 

If it is a wave 5, then all the better.


----------



## michael_selway (8 January 2007)

swingstar said:
			
		

> I have counted the end of wave 3, either of a wave (3) or (5). Mine differs with Kauri's where he's counted a wave in the middle of July.
> 
> If it is a wave 5, then all the better.




If its a wave 3, does that mean more upside?

thx

MS


----------



## swingstar (8 January 2007)

michael_selway said:
			
		

> If its a wave 3, does that mean more upside?
> 
> thx
> 
> MS




Yep, after wave 4, then a larger correction of all lesser degree counter-trends (i.e. waves 2 and 4).


----------



## wavepicker (8 January 2007)

swingstar said:
			
		

> Yep, after wave 4, then a larger correction of all lesser degree counter-trends (i.e. waves 2 and 4).




If there is 1 more leg, all it does is add more evidence to an impending correction thereafter, and another great trading opportunity.

ATM can see support coming in at 15 bucks or thereabouts. Perhaps it could be enough for a rally that may carry to 3/4 of the entire range down. Can't see a new high being put in at this stage although anything is possible in the market. For now, no evidence to show that this downtrend is at risk of ending. Perhaps in the next couple of days when some more info comes to hand.

Cherers


----------



## YOUNG_TRADER (9 January 2007)

If it Zinc closes like this watch out $15 ZFX tomoz


*Zinc January 08,08:00 * 
Bid/Ask 1.7297 - 1.7388 
Change -0.0964  *-5.28%  *


----------



## swingstar (9 January 2007)

wavepicker said:
			
		

> For now, no evidence to show that this downtrend is at risk of ending. Perhaps in the next couple of days when some more info comes to hand.




I agree... Tomorrow is shaping up to be a good day for the shorts, with zinc currently down 5+% tonight.


----------



## Kauri (9 January 2007)

YOUNG_TRADER said:
			
		

> If it Zinc closes like this watch out $15 ZFX tomoz
> 
> 
> *Zinc January 08,08:00 *
> ...




   And I read in The Australian  the weekend that ZFX is unhedged.....   zinc and lead....   :hide:


----------



## bvbfan (9 January 2007)

Doesn't look good


----------



## Fab (9 January 2007)

Kauri said:
			
		

> And I read in The Australian  the weekend that ZFX is unhedged.....   zinc and lead....   :hide:



Can anyone explain to me what hedging is ? and why a company would not be hedge ?


----------



## wayneL (9 January 2007)

Unhedged means that they simply sell their production at the going rate.

Producers may hedge their production by using forward contracts (futures) to "lock in" a particular price for future production, or a part of their production.

This means that they can gaurantee recieving a particular price they are happy with, but they will not be able to benefit if the price of the commodity goes up.

Example: I am a gold producer and will produce 10,000 ozs in the coming year. 

I look at the current price of gold @$600 and know I can make a certain profit at that price. However if gold goes down, I may not be profitable. So I make the decsision to short sell 100 gold futures contract at todays price.

This means I must deliver the gold for $600 an oz at specified delivery dates in the future. I am guaranteed that price. However if Gold goes to $1,000,000 an oz, tough, I still only recieve $600

a double edged sword


----------



## clowboy (9 January 2007)

wayneL said:
			
		

> However if Gold goes to $1,000,000 an oz,




and wouldnt that make for a happy new year?


----------



## chops_a_must (9 January 2007)

Very big bounce today. Can't really see why as the zinc price continues to fall.


----------



## nizar (9 January 2007)

chops_a_must said:
			
		

> Very big bounce today. Can't really see why as the zinc price continues to fall.




"Investors" trying to pick a bottom. You know, like, buying "cheap".
BUT if zinc falls again tonight (as the probabilities suggest) then its double trouble 2mrw IMO...


----------



## chops_a_must (9 January 2007)

nizar said:
			
		

> "Investors" trying to pick a bottom. You know, like, buying "cheap".
> BUT if zinc falls again tonight (as the probabilities suggest) then its double trouble 2mrw IMO...



Maybe people think they mine copper, not zinc. Lol!


----------



## clowboy (9 January 2007)

chops_a_must said:
			
		

> Very big bounce today. Can't really see why as the zinc price continues to fall.




The market as a whole was as confusing as hell today IMO.  I found it very strange the action ZFX had today given the news announcment regarding poisionous water and the price fall of zinc overnight.  Still anything can happen


----------



## reece55 (9 January 2007)

Clowboy
After the heavy downward movement in the last 3 days, I think it was inevitable  that it would have a positive day today, as with the entire resources sector. However, I don't think our move down here has ended - just another setup for a short opportunity IMO.

Cheers


----------



## clowboy (9 January 2007)

Hope your right, as I sold my ZFX holdings about a week ago with the intent of re-entering at $12-14, hopefully the lower but just a case of waiting and seeing what the market delivers.

thanx


----------



## nizar (9 January 2007)

chops_a_must said:
			
		

> Maybe people think they mine copper, not zinc. Lol!




LOL i wouldnt be suprised.


----------



## michael_selway (9 January 2007)

wavepicker said:
			
		

> Would imagine this should find support at approx $15 plus or minus 50c to thereafter mount a reasonable countertrend whereby another short position maybe on the cards.
> 
> This short trade was great they don't come much easier than this
> 
> Cheers




Hi did you close out your short trade?

thx

MS


----------



## toothfairy (9 January 2007)

Hi everyone, techies & fundamentalists included, I don't think many of U would have predicted the ZFX SP movement today. Up from the bell rang.
Techies & wavepickers (not aiming at someone with the same name) predict support @ $15 or worse, fundamentalists suddenly telling us China is actually exporting heaps of Zn instead of the reverse, & the obvious big slide in Zn prices.
Is this just a knee-jerk reaction, can some wise guy explain because I did sell most above $18 and am waiting to buy back.

Cheers


----------



## swingstar (9 January 2007)

toothfairy said:
			
		

> Hi everyone, techies & fundamentalists included, I don't think many of U would have predicted the ZFX SP movement today. Up from the bell rang.
> Techies & wavepickers (not aiming at someone with the same name) predict support @ $15 or worse, fundamentalists suddenly telling us China is actually exporting heaps of Zn instead of the reverse, & the obvious big slide in Zn prices.
> Is this just a knee-jerk reaction, can some wise guy explain because I did sell most above $18 and am waiting to buy back.
> 
> Cheers




Personally I think today was a reaction to the rest of the market and metals.


----------



## rederob (9 January 2007)

swingstar said:
			
		

> Personally I think today was a reaction to the rest of the market and metals.



Does not compute!
Metals - especially zinc - were weak overnight.
The market was strong and this followed through to ZFX which was being picked up on a speculative rebound.
The unwinding of zinc's fundamental strength can persist through January before any pickup on consumer demand.
China seems determined for now to send excess zinc output to Singapore, and the question that remains unanswered for now is if this is an ongoing trend or not.
The copper conundrum tonight looks interesting for the first time this year, with a massive drawdown of inventory - from CHINA!!!
Irrespective of the technicals, the base metal market as a whole, from a medium term perspective, remains firm with very short-supply of inventory should any sector (apart from aluminium) have a major disruption (eg a Glasberg-type event).
So while zinc has experienced its biggest correction in recent history, significant longer term downside does not seem imminent.
But then again, crazier things have happened.


----------



## swingstar (9 January 2007)

rederob said:
			
		

> Does not compute!
> Metals - especially zinc - were weak overnight.




They (except zinc) were at least up for once compared to the previous few weeks. 



> The market was strong and this followed through to ZFX which was being picked up on a speculative rebound.




That's what I said, or meant. 

It's just an idea on today's action... Who knows, it could be the start of another bull trend for all I or anyone knows. Too early to say yet though.


----------



## chops_a_must (9 January 2007)

swingstar said:
			
		

> Who knows, it could be the start of another bull trend for all I or anyone knows. Too early to say yet though.



Not immediately I don't think:

Zinc January 09,06:04 
Bid/Ask 1.6707 - 1.6798 
Change -0.0340  -2.00% 
Low/High 1.6685 - 1.7252 

Zinc 94075 +3100


----------



## swingstar (9 January 2007)

chops_a_must said:
			
		

> Not immediately I don't think:
> 
> Zinc January 09,06:04
> Bid/Ask 1.6707 - 1.6798
> ...




Zinc price had little effect today though.  I'm bearish short-term still.


----------



## wavepicker (9 January 2007)

michael_selway said:
			
		

> Hi did you close out your short trade?
> 
> thx
> 
> MS




Michael, closed it out 2 days ago. Was a put option and like to sell in th heat of the moment. There was a lot more in it after I sold it but bad luck. Too be honest it fell faster than I originally thought as I expected to be in the trade somewhat longer, like a month. Time to move on and find something else.

Cheers


----------



## reece55 (9 January 2007)

Wavepicker....

I too held a long put option, but closed out today when options came online.......

Sweet money made here, doubled my money in about 8 trading days....... My only regret is that I balanced the trade out by selling another put 2 strikes below the purchased put for some security.....

Still bearish in the short term, the recovery was strong today, but the like I say the market was due to come back.......


----------



## wavepicker (9 January 2007)

reece55 said:
			
		

> Wavepicker....
> 
> I too held a long put option, but closed out today when options came online.......
> 
> ...




Hi reece. I got in 1 off the peak , but made 250% 2 days ago  which is great for a weeks work and I am happy. I always say, that if we do our job properly then the market will do the rest of the work for us.

I think there is more in this but having said that, there maybe another retest of highs by XAO which I didn't think would be the case a few days ago or even a marginal high. If so ZFX might mount a decent rally and offer another opportunity later. It is a difficult one to trade however due to the volatility.

Cheers


----------



## swingstar (10 January 2007)

There goes yesterday's gains... I wonder if the selling will continue. The break below Monday's low looks bearish, as I thought it may have been a false break.


----------



## swingstar (10 January 2007)

Today was a very bearish signal IMO, taking out Monday's low... I think it'd take a decent rise in the US or metals to lift it tomorrow. Just the way I see it...

Could be wrong of course... (see OXR thread to see me spectacularly wrong).


----------



## chops_a_must (10 January 2007)

swingstar said:
			
		

> Today was a very bearish signal IMO, taking out Monday's low... I think it'd take a decent rise in the US or metals to lift it tomorrow. Just the way I see it...
> 
> Could be wrong of course... (see OXR thread to see me spectacularly wrong).



It didn't head much lower after the gap down on the opening. I think it is going to take a fair drop in zinc prices to get it under $16. But if it does, all hell could break loose.


----------



## swingstar (10 January 2007)

chops_a_must said:
			
		

> It didn't head much lower after the gap down on the opening.




True, but I thought if yesterday was meaningful at all, buyers would have been in today at even lower prices. I think we'll see more downside before any end to this trend.


----------



## reece55 (10 January 2007)

Swingstar
Agree with you here - today was extremely bearish and I didn't expect the stock to take out yesterdays lows. Tomorrow will be interesting here, if 16.00 is broken, then I think the next support level is about $14.00. Not saying that we will necessarily reach that level because most technical indicators point to the stock being oversold and therefore I would suspect it to rally.

Wavepicker, agree with you in saying that ZFX is a very hard stock to trade - the first long put trade was relatively easy for me to pick (albeit I got in a little early, my hat off to you because you really picked it brilliantly), but I think the next will be harder to pick. Plus the IV on any option for ZFX, be it put or call, is extreme now due to the volatility. Probably be better going for a CFD trade here for the next setup. Do you still feel we will rally back to the resistance before another heavy move down? Or did todays movement change your view?

Cheers
Reece


----------



## eMark (10 January 2007)

Reece

I hold ZFX.

Are you saying that the technical indicators that you are aware of point to $16.00 being oversold? You suspect a rally? (I mean anything can happen, and has already with this stock). Just clarifying that I have understood what you have said.

Also some index reweighting seems to be continuing

Zinc January 10,06:02 
Bid/Ask 1.6261 - 1.6397 
Change -0.0181  -1.10% 
Low/High 1.6238 - 1.6964 

Could this drive the stock lower? I recall Tuesday Zinc was down 5% yet still had a rally, although at that time it still appeared bullish.


----------



## reece55 (10 January 2007)

eMark
Honestly, I have no idea where the stock will go tomorrow - the last couple of days have been interesting. As I say, key support here is about $16.00, a break of this would not be good. However, all in all, if I had to make a call I would say it will rally - it has really been a sharp sell off.

Personally, from a both a technical and fundamental perspective, I wouldn't be long here now - you can't see zinc getting any better in the long run and the chart now reads a sea of red. The strong up-trend channel that has been in place since September that saw prices go from the 11 mark to 19 appears well and truly broken - many people disagreed with me when the price was $19 in early Jan, but curiously most haven't posted on this thread since!

Cheers
Reece


----------



## eMark (11 January 2007)

Hi Reece

Well, that proved to be an encouraging if not somewhat subdued day for ZFX. Even though Zinc was up 5% overnight, buyers are a little sheepish and haven't forgotten what has transpired in the last few days (with good reason).

Closed at 16.49, above Wednesdays close. I was getting ready for a sharp retractment towards the close; which looked like happening, but ended up closing off it's lows. Can anyone tell me the buyers vs sellers scenraio for today? Which the stronger?

I hope last night's metals rise was not a "dead cat bounce", and possibly a bottom? It took me by surprise.

eMark



			
				reece55 said:
			
		

> eMark
> Honestly, I have no idea where the stock will go tomorrow - the last couple of days have been interesting. As I say, key support here is about $16.00, a break of this would not be good. However, all in all, if I had to make a call I would say it will rally - it has really been a sharp sell off.
> 
> Personally, from a both a technical and fundamental perspective, I wouldn't be long here now - you can't see zinc getting any better in the long run and the chart now reads a sea of red. The strong up-trend channel that has been in place since September that saw prices go from the 11 mark to 19 appears well and truly broken - many people disagreed with me when the price was $19 in early Jan, but curiously most haven't posted on this thread since!
> ...


----------



## rederob (11 January 2007)

reece55 said:
			
		

> The strong up-trend channel that has been in place since September that saw prices go from the 11 mark to 19 appears well and truly broken - many people disagreed with me when the price was $19 in early Jan, but curiously most haven't posted on this thread since!
> Cheers
> Reece



I am reasonably confident $19 will be breached within the quarter as present action is pretty much the same as the sharp selloff in May.
Except at that stage there were shiploads of zinc avaialble.
Only Chinese restocking at LME Singapore will defer the rebound.
While drawdowns have been light, that is a function of backwardation and consumers will try to hold out as long as possible for cheaper prices to be achieved.
Just remember that about 18 months ago a single delivery of zinc to LME was greater than total present warranted stock, so any stock rebuilds will need to be exceptionally strong to turn around zinc's fundamental tone.


----------



## michael_selway (11 January 2007)

rederob said:
			
		

> I am reasonably confident $19 will be breached within the quarter as present action is pretty much the same as the sharp selloff in May.
> Except at that stage there were shiploads of zinc avaialble.
> Only Chinese restocking at LME Singapore will defer the rebound.
> While drawdowns have been light, that is a function of backwardation and consumers will try to hold out as long as possible for cheaper prices to be achieved.
> Just remember that about 18 months ago a single delivery of zinc to LME was greater than total present warranted stock, so any stock rebuilds will need to be exceptionally strong to turn around zinc's fundamental tone.




I agree, the additions are "insignifcant" at this stage

Have to look at the broader picture as well

thx

MS


----------



## chops_a_must (14 January 2007)

rederob said:
			
		

> I am reasonably confident $19 will be breached within the quarter as present action is pretty much the same as the sharp selloff in May.



It already has been breached, on the 3rd.

My prediction is still looking good. It really needs to test $16 though. There is a lot of money sitting on the side lines for this one. Lots of mums and dads watching it on the news. And depending on how it reacts to the $16 mark, and my guess is that it wont dive further given zinc has bounced off its support between $3,750 and $3,500, we should see some strong buying.


----------



## rederob (14 January 2007)

chops_a_must said:
			
		

> It already has been breached, on the 3rd.



Oh well, let's make it $20 this quarter.


----------



## chops_a_must (14 January 2007)

rederob said:
			
		

> Oh well, let's make it $20 this quarter.



Lol! At least no-one could have accused you of having an unjustified price target on it!


----------



## eMark (14 January 2007)

Hey chops

When you say "test $16.00", do you feel it needs to go back there a few more times before moving forward? As it's been back to $16 a couple of times this week already.

eMark



			
				chops_a_must said:
			
		

> It already has been breached, on the 3rd.
> 
> My prediction is still looking good. It really needs to test $16 though. There is a lot of money sitting on the side lines for this one. Lots of mums and dads watching it on the news. And depending on how it reacts to the $16 mark, and my guess is that it wont dive further given zinc has bounced off its support between $3,750 and $3,500, we should see some strong buying.


----------



## michael_selway (14 January 2007)

rederob said:
			
		

> Oh well, let's make it $20 this quarter.




I concur

btw what do u think of lead, it apear sto be holding very well above 70c/lb, record highs

thx

MS


----------



## chops_a_must (14 January 2007)

eMark said:
			
		

> Hey chops
> 
> When you say "test $16.00", do you feel it needs to go back there a few more times before moving forward? As it's been back to $16 a couple of times this week already.
> 
> eMark



As far as I'm aware the lowest it got was into the $16.10s. Which isn't a serious attack at the support level. I would really like to see it bouce off before I commit any money to it.


----------



## silence (15 January 2007)

I topped up at $16.40 last week with a close stop loss, assuming it was just bouncing off the approximate support at that level. Seems to have paid off, I've just got to not make the mistake I made last year of putting too much in that 'definite winner'...which turns out not to be.


----------



## rederob (15 January 2007)

michael_selway said:
			
		

> I concur
> 
> btw what do u think of lead, it apear sto be holding very well above 70c/lb, record highs
> 
> ...



I think both zinc and lead are likely to get tighter, and more record highs are therefore probable.
At the broader economic level there is still nothing to suggest either of these metal are going to suffer the fate of copper, near to medium term.


----------



## michael_selway (15 January 2007)

rederob said:
			
		

> I think both zinc and lead are likely to get tighter, and more record highs are therefore probable.
> At the broader economic level there is still nothing to suggest either of these metal are going to suffer the fate of copper, near to medium term.




Zinc, Lead, & Nickel

In what order do you think more further upside potential at current prices?

thx

MS


----------



## rederob (15 January 2007)

michael_selway said:
			
		

> Zinc, Lead, & Nickel
> 
> In what order do you think more further upside potential at current prices?
> 
> ...



MS
In percentage terms lead will probably win.
But unless you are trading the metal, you need to choose an equity as its proxy. ZFX is a pretty good one to be on!
I see zinc having more percentage upside this year than nickel, but I equally think my preferred nickel "equity" - MRE - could match or better the performance of zinc equities simply because it continues to be marked down by most market players.
As you know, KZL and ZFX have had massive runs on zinc's rise and I suspect into 2007 punters may be a little more cautious until a "bull" sign re-appears.


----------



## chops_a_must (18 January 2007)

Could we see ZFX at below $16 today? Zinc down nearly 4% and most importantly:

Zinc 100325 +5725


----------



## Halba (18 January 2007)

nup. ZFX has nearly 25% of its mkt cap in cash. absolutely no downside risk

Simple calcs:

300-400mil in cash at bank

1.7bil profit

current mc = 8bil

= 25%

Add spinoff proceeds of about 1-2billion, say 1billion

thats 38% of its mkt cap in theoretical cash. mkt has factored in lower zinc prices.


----------



## PhoenixXx (18 January 2007)

Halba said:
			
		

> ... absolutely no downside risk ...



So IF it really dropped below $16, would it be worthed to buy more? thx


----------



## chops_a_must (21 January 2007)

Does anyone know if the Port Pirie smelter has been put out of action?


----------



## eMark (23 January 2007)

Does anyone know how much the daily price of LEAD plays in influencing Zinifex's share price?


----------



## chops_a_must (23 January 2007)

ZFX may well have begun to turn:


----------



## MiningGuru (23 January 2007)

I agree. I think that the chart shows that ZFX is now turning up and that it should push up beyong its previous highs.

Time to get on again at the start of a new run!


----------



## chops_a_must (23 January 2007)

MiningGuru said:
			
		

> I agree. I think that the chart shows that ZFX is now turning up and that it should push up beyong its previous highs.
> 
> Time to get on again at the start of a new run!



If it clears 17.80, then that will mean it has gone above 10% of its recent lows and a higher probability of a turn around. Should be fun to see what happens.


----------



## MiningGuru (23 January 2007)

chops_a_must said:
			
		

> If it clears 17.80, then that will mean it has gone above 10% of its recent lows and a higher probability of a turn around. Should be fun to see what happens.




Almost there! It has hit 17.75!

Might be able to do it


----------



## MiningGuru (23 January 2007)

Now has pushed through 17.80.

Great chance of a further surge tomorrow!


----------



## Halba (23 January 2007)

this co always goes great around reporting season, coz its profits are so spectacular relative to any stock on the entire ASX


----------



## silence (23 January 2007)

When are they due to announce the quarterly, etc? (how does one know when thinks like this are due?)


----------



## chops_a_must (24 January 2007)

Really liked the announcements today. I don't think mine life/ future production is going to be a problem with this one.


----------



## michael_selway (24 January 2007)

chops_a_must said:
			
		

> Really liked the announcements today. I don't think mine life/ future production is going to be a problem with this one.




ZFX yeah, i think CEO is smartly lookign to extend mine life, wheres there is value to shareholders etc

thx

MS


----------



## PureCoco (25 January 2007)

They also have an agreement to exlpore and produce Zinc from land SMA holds.  17,000 ha in Australia.  From their past decisions ZFX wouldn't go into a JV without potential.  (i'd like to think).


----------



## rwkni1 (25 January 2007)

eMark said:
			
		

> Does anyone know how much the daily price of LEAD plays in influencing Zinifex's share price?




Pretty minimal. In FY06 lead contributed only 8% of their earnings.
Zinc was 83%, silver was 7% and gold and copper were 1% each.


----------



## Kauri (26 January 2007)

Not meant as a recomendation or even as my view of this stocks prospects, just testing my shorting skills...they have got a bit rusty lately...   :hide:   ...


----------



## chops_a_must (26 January 2007)

Kauri said:
			
		

> Not meant as a recomendation or even as my view of this stocks prospects, just testing my shorting skills...they have got a bit rusty lately...   :hide:   ...



I was going to ask a E waver if it looked like an ABC pattern. So, low 15s or high 14s would be needed for the count to be validated?


----------



## Kauri (26 January 2007)

chops_a_must said:
			
		

> I was going to ask a E waver if it looked like an ABC pattern. So, low 15s or high 14s would be needed for the count to be validated?




   Chops,
          I'm only starting out on the E/W path, so treat my charts accordingly.  

In my understanding it could pull up short of $16 and still be a valid ABC, but of course I'm looking for more than that. Apart from he apparent ABC pattern the last two days action don't inspire me for a continued upward move in the short term.  ... Now watch it take off towards $20...


----------



## BREND (28 January 2007)

eMark said:
			
		

> Does anyone know how much the daily price of LEAD plays in influencing Zinifex's share price?




The chart in my blog should be able to answer your question:
http://basemetal-trading.blogspot.com/2007/01/zinc-share-price-vs-zinc-and-lead-price.html


----------



## eMark (28 January 2007)

Can anyone confirm as to whether ZFX Quarterly report is released on the 29th (acc. to Westpac) or 30th (acc. to the ZFX website) of January? With the DOW & Hang Seng in trouble, and the Zinc price off a little, I'm hoping that the report can sustain current levels.


----------



## rederob (28 January 2007)

eMark said:
			
		

> Can anyone confirm as to whether ZFX Quarterly report is released on the 29th (acc. to Westpac) or 30th (acc. to the ZFX website) of January? With the DOW & Hang Seng in trouble, and the Zinc price off a little, I'm hoping that the report can sustain current levels.



From the ZFX site:


> 2007 Dates
> These dates are *indicative * only, and may be subject to change.
> 30 January Release of December Quarter Review
> 22 February Half Year Financial Results


----------



## rederob (28 January 2007)

Zinc v's lead - sensitivities:


----------



## Halba (28 January 2007)

What on earth does dow/hang seng got to do with ZFX?

IMHO dow/hang seng were massively overbought any kid could see that retrace coming.


----------



## rederob (28 January 2007)

Halba said:
			
		

> What on earth does dow/hang seng got to do with ZFX?
> 
> IMHO dow/hang seng were massively overbought any kid could see that retrace coming.



Umm, please explain?


----------



## Kauri (28 January 2007)

Halba said:
			
		

> What on earth does dow/hang seng got to do with ZFX?
> 
> IMHO dow/hang seng were massively overbought any kid could see that retrace coming.




   I've been looking through all the posts since close of trading here on thursday and no *kid* has called the possible start of the correction on the XAO on Monday.... *yet*..


----------



## Warren Buffet II (29 January 2007)

Well, here you go, this is the kind of stories that will drop ZFX share price to the floor:

http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601012&sid=aAwbyHD48Huo&refer=commodities

So you can easily say that there is no Chinese story running anymore for Zinc/Zinifex. Chinese is exporting Zinc and will keep doing it through 2007.

WBII


----------



## chops_a_must (30 January 2007)

Warren Buffet II said:
			
		

> Well, here you go, this is the kind of stories that will drop ZFX share price to the floor:
> 
> http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601012&sid=aAwbyHD48Huo&refer=commodities
> 
> ...



Plus the drop in zinc price and the current downward momentum in the SP. If you here a giant thud sometime tomorrow, I think you know what it will be.


----------



## Freeballinginawetsuit (30 January 2007)

Warren Buffet II said:
			
		

> Well, here you go, this is the kind of stories that will drop ZFX share price to the floor:
> 
> http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601012&sid=aAwbyHD48Huo&refer=commodities
> 
> ...







So China's Zinc exports outweighed imports in 06 by 7000 tonnes, yet Zinc LME inventories were critical for most of the latter half of 06 and the spot price more than doubled in 06. Imagine the scenario if China couldn't balance imports/exports of Zinc.

Its not as if the Chinese are all that keen on the prices theyve been paying for the raw commodities fuelling their boom, to date they have been hung out to dry. Who knows how keen they are on reporting accurate data anyway! 

This paragraph is taken out of the same article, seems to be saying they like importing raw materials, on the other hand it could be a chinese riddle, lol

*``It is not likely that China will be a large net exporter of zinc,'' Zhou Guobao, director of the lead and zinc division at the China Nonferrous Metals Industry Association, said in an interview in Beijing Jan. 25. ``The government wants more imports and fewer exports of resources.'' *

Seems to contradict the article or maybe they just used Import/Exports in the wrong context


----------



## chops_a_must (30 January 2007)

Freeballinginawetsuit said:
			
		

> Seems to contradict the article or maybe they just used Import/Exports in the wrong context



Possibly just encouraging internal use?


----------



## Freeballinginawetsuit (30 January 2007)

Yep their probably conserving their resources lol, or run out of baskets to move the ore and waiting a few years until they can build dump trucks.
I think they are only able to build motor bikes ATM  and even those break after a couple of months.

Ahh...... our parents were telling these jokes about the Japanese a generation back "Jap Crap" and look how far they have come, all their plants are in China 


A footnote: 6 years ago the Chinese on large scale concrete pours used to mix the ag and cement with Loaders in-situ on the ground. Absolutely a true story, I saw it with my own eyes real 'stoneage stuff'


----------



## toothfairy (30 January 2007)

Everyone who does business in China can tell you that is one tricky place to do business in ( I am Chinese by origin, I know) . I also will not give that article any credit, it could just the opposite be true.
Anyway, back to ZFX, don't forget last year when they posted the 1 billion plus profit was on an average Zn price of A$2807. Now it is still @ about A$4600. Profit this year can't be that bad. I don't know about the thud, if I hear it I'll wake up and buy some. Thanks.


----------



## misterS (30 January 2007)

New to the game, and buying ZFX at about $9.5 last year, I thought this is money for jam and bought some more at about $13.5... Within days, (may have even been the next day) Zfx promptly started a dive to $8 plus.  So much for jam, but I still have them and will probably sell them after 12 months.  Just because the CGT rate makes such a difference to me, not for analytical timing reasons.  I could never develop the technical wizardry displayed by some of the people posting here.

However, I have been avidly scouring the available information about zinc stocks and supply / demand, with everyone from ABARE to Bloomberg and Mining News and every commentator etc. for the past 9 months, while watching the price fluctuate. 

Apart from more central considerations, does the fact that Subaru is replacing all aluminium body parts for zinc coated steel from later this year counter-balance Indian galvanized steel makers choosing to make an inferior quality of galvanized steel by using less zinc, I asked myself?  Will the buyers of this crappy galvanised product demand better?  Will LME run out of zinc altogether, or will the level rise to previous levels? Will China keep on growing at over 10%, with so much infrastructure etc. Will China growth exceed the down turn in US demand? Will Indian zinc production zoom this year?

Read in its entirety, this Bloomberg article is not too startling.  Also, I think the ZFX dividends this year and the likely income from the smelter spin-off should sustain a reasonable price at least till the end of the year.  That is the extent of my direct interest, but I suspect that strategically, its sustainability beyond its Century mine exhaustion is more a question of the quality of its managment than the zinc price.  If you couldn't find something else to dig up and flog within a decade with a billion dollars profit pouring in every year, you would have to ask if you really deserved your share options!
cheers,


----------



## drmb (30 January 2007)

I will keep holding despite wobbles and obscure articles from China. I read on another post somewhere that the Chinese will export zinc through the begining of the year to try to keep the benchmark price down and then after the Chinese New Year, whammo, they'll lock in the priice before (imo) the price takes off again. Whenever I need comforting I looks at the 5 year LME chart and take comfort that Zinc will not suddenly get cheap as chips.


----------



## PhoenixXx (31 January 2007)

Seems like it's going to drop even further


----------



## BREND (31 January 2007)

PhoenixXx said:
			
		

> Seems like it's going to drop even further




Don't worry, zinc price is moving up today.


----------



## BREND (1 February 2007)

Update on zinc situation:

Fall in zinc price at the end of Dec 2006 and early Jan 2007 is due to rising inventory level. This rise in inventory level is partly due to export of zinc into LME warehouse by China merchants.

However based on current lower price of zinc at LME, China merchants had stopped exporting zinc into LME, as the price of zinc in China is higher compared to that of LME. Hence we see that inventory level has started to fall since mid Jan 07.

We think that market is over pessimistic on zinc, price remains weak even though fundamental of zinc had improved. As inventory level continues to fall, we should be able to see a recovery in zinc price.  

Zinc chart shows that a reversal might occur soon:
http://basemetal-trading.blogspot.com/2007/01/possible-reversal-for-zinc.html


----------



## Kauri (1 February 2007)

Looks like my short will be covered for around 1R...unless she gaps through on open..


----------



## toothfairy (4 February 2007)

Any intelligent guesses on what price will ZFX trade @ tomorrow? Last time when price of Zn was @ $14 in June/July 06 ZFX was traded @ around $10. There isn't much that we know about the company now that we didn't know about in July 06. Apart from the Umicore deal & some exploration news.
(I am not trying to talk down the ZFX sp, I still own a parcel of it although not as much as 1 month ago! Just want a survey, thanks).


----------



## eMark (4 February 2007)

It's hard to fathom really. Hopefully somewhat restrained, but I don't think so... i.e I have never seen a 9-12% drop in one day before with Zinc. Somewhere in the vicinity of $15.50 and $16.00 (conservatively).


----------



## drmb (5 February 2007)

eMark said:
			
		

> It's hard to fathom really. Hopefully somewhat restrained, but I don't think so... i.e I have never seen a 9-12% drop in one day before with Zinc. Somewhere in the vicinity of $15.50 and $16.00 (conservatively).



Think maybe the instos may dump down to 14-15 (or even lower) to get the littlies like me to panic and then buy back up to 15. Just a hunch nothing to base this on. I'm not going to panic, may top up if goes below 14. Expect it to recover more or less some of the loss after Chinese New Year. Zn is volatile! DYOR etc


----------



## toothfairy (5 February 2007)

drmb said:
			
		

> Think maybe the instos may dump down to 14-15 (or even lower) to get the littlies like me to panic and then buy back up to 15. Just a hunch nothing to base this on. I'm not going to panic, may top up if goes below 14. Expect it to recover more or less some of the loss after Chinese New Year. Zn is volatile! DYOR etc



True, we all shouldn't panic, but is it good strategy to sell ASAP and buy back later? Littlies like us have only a few thousand shares to get rid of. Big instos have hundreds of thousands may be millions. By the time they sell enough it will take a few days of decline. Then we can buy back.


----------



## Kauri (5 February 2007)

I think that a lot of punters guaranteed stops may be hit around the 16 to 16.30 area, other non guaranteed stops will be possibly gapped through. Bargain hunters will be out in force trying to pick the bottom. Big buyers/instos will come in when the dust has settled and the real bottom has formed. My opinion only and I am wrong more often than I am right. 
  Meantime, just south of perth we burn, some idiot lighting fires, 14 houses gone already..    ...  bring back the noose for arsonists..


----------



## Kipp (5 February 2007)

toothfairy said:
			
		

> True, we all shouldn't panic, but is it good strategy to sell ASAP and buy back later? Littlies like us have only a few thousand shares to get rid of. Big instos have hundreds of thousands may be millions. By the time they sell enough it will take a few days of decline. Then we can buy back.



In times of uncertainty (or at least, a downtrend)- apply the "better sleep principle".  Will you sleep better or worse holding ZFX?  Given that you're still up at 1:30 am thinking about it... maybe better sleep would be had without them?

Not holding ZFX for now- only Zn exposure is though BSM- but Zinc price is starting to keep to me up at night.. .lol


----------



## j4mesa (5 February 2007)

ZFX Drops is not as bad as Zn prices drop apparently.

I could see a short-term support around 15.95 (lots of buying) or 16 dollars.


----------



## drmb (5 February 2007)

j4mesa said:
			
		

> ZFX Drops is not as bad as Zn prices drop apparently.
> 
> I could see a short-term support around 15.95 (lots of buying) or 16 dollars.



Good ann confirms why I will still hold as ZFX as it divests smelters 'n goes exploring "The Drake-Zinifex Alliance applies for an exploration licence covering the Doverstorp Mineral Field in Sweden The Drake (ASX Code DRK) -Zinifex (ASX Code ZFX) Alliance is continuing its acquisition of highly prospective properties in Scandinavia. Drake is pleased to announce that it has applied for an exploration licence that contains the historic Doverstorp Mineral Field in the Bergslagen district of Sweden. The application is 23 square kilometres in area."


----------



## Kauri (5 February 2007)

The first group of bottom pickers tried at 16, they haven't made a pile, yet, the next group picked 15.90, it will be interesting to see if they come up smelling of roses...


----------



## eMark (5 February 2007)

Kauri said:
			
		

> The first group of bottom pickers tried at 16, they haven't made a pile, yet, the next group picked 15.90, it will be interesting to see if they come up smelling of roses...





Bottom pickers (huh huh snort snort). Such a horrible phrase :


----------



## Kauri (5 February 2007)

eMark said:
			
		

> Bottom pickers (huh huh snort snort). Such a horrible phrase :




 Horrible phrase... terrible habit..


----------



## michael_selway (5 February 2007)

Kauri said:
			
		

> The first group of bottom pickers tried at 16, they haven't made a pile, yet, the next group picked 15.90, it will be interesting to see if they come up smelling of roses...




ZFX @ 16, a clear bottom?

thx

MS


----------



## nizar (5 February 2007)

michael_selway said:
			
		

> ZFX @ 16, a clear bottom?
> 
> thx
> 
> MS




Too early to tell.


----------



## pacer (5 February 2007)

Try $15 Mike....the market is sentiment....the lads have made thier $$ and are leaving the ship.........

Share price has stuffall to do with projects or management or profits.......it's overall sentiment that rules....no way is getting into the new gig in *Sweden* gonna help...that just says to investors that they have a limited life in OZ and are spending profits on a hope and a dream....it happens all the time....

Santos did the same thing on thier last project....hopes and dreams have been dashed there aswell, and the company is grabbing at straws to try and take over undervalued stocks...and not winning....lol....zfx will possibly end up the same....

10 year mine life, maybe a touch more, no real results yet from more drilling,.......but thats it...finito.....

My opinion only...DYOR....


----------



## CanOz (5 February 2007)

pacer said:
			
		

> Try $15 Mike....the market is sentiment....the lads have made thier $$ and are leaving the ship.........
> 
> Share price has stuffall to do with projects or management or profits.......it's overall sentiment that rules....no way is getting into the new gig in *Sweden* gonna help...that just says to investors that they have a limited life in OZ and are spending profits on a hope and a dream....it happens all the time....
> 
> ...




Any other blue chip mining Co.s you feel like ripping apart tonite Pacer? Or are you finished with the negative and ready to ramp a few of your current jems?

My opinion only....

Cheers,


----------



## Kauri (5 February 2007)

> Originally Posted by *Kauri*
> _The first group of bottom pickers tried at 16, they haven't made a pile, yet, the next group picked 15.90, it will be interesting to see if they come up smelling of roses..._






			
				michael_selway said:
			
		

> ZFX @ 16, a clear bottom?
> 
> thx
> 
> MS





   I'll tell you next week..
  Thx


----------



## toothfairy (6 February 2007)

ZFX trading was a lot calmer today than I anticipated. Gave me plenty of time to sell out my last 20% stock to the bottom pickers. I am out of it at this stage. I have been buying on its way up since July 06 @ $10, and been selling from its way down from $18 a few weeks ago. Made 50% profit in 6 months, very happy. That said, I may get back in later. I just don't consider it good value anymore at this SP vs POZ.


----------



## pacer (6 February 2007)

No wurries crazy....was just bored and having a bit of fun, it's always good to keep everyone on thier toes.....hard facts are just that...HARD.

want me to ramp some?....wow, anz and wpl....there ya go.....a nice safe investment.....for now.hehe.


----------



## chops_a_must (6 February 2007)

pacer said:
			
		

> No wurries crazy....was just bored and having a bit of fun, it's always good to keep everyone on thier toes.....hard facts are just that...HARD.
> 
> want me to ramp some?....wow, anz and wpl....there ya go.....a nice safe investment.....for now.hehe.



ANZ!!1???18!?/

Pacey, you haven't sold your soul to the devil have you?


----------



## rico01 (6 February 2007)

Zfx is going to announce its dividend soon.   Last year it was 5 cents in feb but this year it could be as high as 80 cents going from reports/ expectations of the major brokers  , now thats why the share price has not fallen as the zinc price  collapsed, also last year when they made their billion  dollar profit it was on a average zinc price cf $1.35, now in their last six months they said their average realised price for zinc was $1.57 , even though we,ve had a high of $ 2.07  : ,and today zinc is trading at $1.40 hardly a catastrope yet!!   I,m holding for the div,s and possible capital  return after they  sell their smelters
 : :


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## Halba (6 February 2007)

agree rico

imma need my dividend  : i waited for it patiently, and thats the rewards for the high zinc price of the past  


plus i need the franking credits too 


still making lotsa cash and steel demand is not set to slow!


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## eMark (6 February 2007)

rico01 said:
			
		

> Zfx is going to announce its dividend soon.   Last year it was 5 cents in feb but this year it could be as high as 80 cents going from reports/ expectations of the major brokers




Does that announcement usually accompany the half yearly results, (around Feb 22)?


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## rico01 (6 February 2007)

eMark said:
			
		

> Does that announcement usually accompany the half yearly results, (around Feb 22)?





My wordy lordy


----------



## rico01 (6 February 2007)

Earnings Downgrade - Interim estimate trimmed 5% to A$745m on inventory build and production issues at Clarksville. Lower NPAT and working capital build has reduced our dividend by A30 ¢ to A90 ¢/share. FY07 estimate also downgraded 3% to A$1.75b due to the ongoing roaster issues at Clarksville.
  From the citigroupweath advisors site


----------



## Halba (6 February 2007)

still 1.7billion dollars


ure info re: earnings report is out about 1 week ago


----------



## Julia (6 February 2007)

Announcement today has not helped the SP.

Julia


----------



## eMark (6 February 2007)

rico01 said:
			
		

> Earnings Downgrade - Interim estimate trimmed 5% to A$745m on inventory build and production issues at Clarksville. Lower NPAT and working capital build has reduced our dividend by A30 ¢ to A90 ¢/share. FY07 estimate also downgraded 3% to A$1.75b due to the ongoing roaster issues at Clarksville.
> From the citigroupweath advisors site




Is this direct from citigroupweath advisors? Is this what they think ZFX's half yearly is going to reflect? Excuse my ignorance, but I'm just trying to understand where this fits in.

Thanks.


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## rico01 (6 February 2007)

eMark said:
			
		

> Is this direct from citigroupweath advisors? Is this what they think ZFX's half yearly is going to reflect? Excuse my ignorance, but I'm just trying to understand where this fits in.
> This is just there opinion and you should seek your own advice or form your own opinion
> 
> 
> ...


----------



## Kauri (6 February 2007)

rico01 said:
			
		

> eMark said:
> 
> 
> 
> ...


----------



## redandgreen (6 February 2007)

Kauri said:
			
		

> rico01 said:
> 
> 
> 
> ...


----------



## redandgreen (6 February 2007)

This info definitely relates to BHP not ZFX!!!!!!


----------



## rico01 (6 February 2007)

redandgreen said:
			
		

> This info definitely relates to BHP not ZFX!!!!!!




Sorry this is the zfx research


Mixed DecQ Production - Mine production was up 5% to 143kt driven by record Century throughput, but offset by 2% lower metal production following roaster outages at Clarksville. Sales were also 4kt below production at Clarksville and Budel driven by auto sector weakness and stock build pre-maintenance. We maintain our Buy recommendation with a new target price of A$21.00/share. 
Earnings Downgrade - Interim estimate trimmed 5% to A$745m on inventory build and production issues at Clarksville. Lower NPAT and working capital build has reduced our dividend by A30¢ to A90¢/share. FY07 estimate also downgraded 3% to A$1.75b due to the ongoing roaster issues at Clarksville. 

Zinc Still the One - Although concerned by the sudden spike in Chinese zinc exports, we believe this is only a data point and expect the market to remain in deficit in 2007 with a price forecast of US$2/lb. Zinifex also expect premia to more than double in 2007 to US$260+/t in the US and US$300+/t in Europe. 

Positive Exploration Results - Encouraging high-grade Rosebery exploration results to the north should increase resources and provide production flexibility from mining an additional lens. Drilling of the Page Creek deposit on the Century lease has also intersected mineralization, but assay results are pending. 

Restructuring Upside - In addition to the favoured zinc leverage, attractive yield and continued positive news flow on exploration, we expect the spin-off of the smelter assets with Umicore (ACUMt.BR - €133.8; 1M) to un-lock further value in Zinifex through 2007.


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## drmb (8 February 2007)

Zn down on Kitco 7am (alas)
Zinc February 07,13:11 
Bid/Ask 1.4232 - 1.4323 
Change -0.0380  -2.60% 
Low/High 1.3823 - 1.4703 

From The Australian http://www.theaustralian.news.com.au/story/0,20867,21189918-643,00.html
_"Zinifex to grow out of reach Andrew Trounson February 08, 2007 

LEAD and zinc giant Zinifex's chief executive Greig Gailey came out swinging yesterday, denying the company is a sitting duck for a takeover.
In an address to the Melbourne Mining Club, he vowed an aggressive expansion of his mining business and reassured investors that the outlook for prices was strong despite a recent pull-back. 
Zinifex has been seen as a takeover target since late last year, when it agreed to merge its smelting assets with those of Belgium-based Umicore. 

Mr Gailey noted that Swiss-based Xstrata and its 40 per cent shareholder, commodity trading giant Glencore, had been acquiring zinc assets, but said he was determined that Zinifex be a winner in a necessary consolidation of the industry, not a victim. 

"We need to vigorously grow our company if we are to survive as an independent," Mr Gailey said. "If we don't, we risk being in someone else's plans for consolidation." 

But Mr Gailey will be hoping that the string of hiccups affecting his operations doesn't become a trend. 

In the company's latest misadventure, its loading vessel Wunma was disabled in the Gulf of Carpentaria yesterday morning, after taking in water in high seas stirred by cyclone Nelson. 

The Wunma ferries zinc concentrate from Zinifex's Century zinc mine in Queensland to bulk carriers, and carries a $US15 million ($19.3 million) load. 

While the vessel and concentrate will be returned to Karumba port and the cargo dried, if the ship is badly damaged, it could take weeks to repair or replace. There is a possibility that an extended delay could force a temporary production shutdown at Century, though the company has storage capacity for at least one week at the port. .....etc"_
May see zfx red today, but maybe maybe a buy opportunity???


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## drmb (8 February 2007)

This has to be good news for somebody? 

http://www.theaustralian.news.com.au/story/0,20867,21189891-643,00.html

BASE metal miner Zinifex's run of bad luck continued yesterday when it was forced to abandon an ocean freighter with $US15 million ($A19.28 million) in zinc concentrate on board as Tropical Cyclone Nelson whipped up high seas.

At 5.45am yesterday the captain of Zinifex's transfer vessel MV Wunma, based at Karumba in far north Queensland, issued a distress call when the ship took on water and the engine failed in the severe storm.

The payload of 5000 tonnes of zinc concentrate, worth $US15 million at present prices of $US3000/tonne, is now anchored and stable 45km offshore with no power or communications.

The shipment was on its way to a partly loaded deep-sea vessel heading to China but the company may well declare force majeure and redirect the load to one of its own smelters.

*The vessel and cargo are insured and the 10-person crew were winched to safety yesterday. The company does not expect any production losses from the incident.*


----------



## eMark (8 February 2007)

Warning was given Zinifex barge would sink in cyclone
8/2/07:

The operators of a barge abandoned on Wednesday in wild seas in the Gulf of Carpentaria had been warned in an academic report in 2002 there was a high risk it would spill its load or sink in a cyclone.
Ten crew members of MV Wunma were winched to safety by two rescue helicopters at 1pm (AEST) on Wednesday in heavy seas in the Gulf of Carpentaria caused by Cyclone Nelson.

They were returned to land in Normanton, in far north Queensland, and were not injured in the ordeal.

MV Wunma, owned by mining company Zinifex, sent out a distress call about 10.30pm (AEST) on Tuesday after it began taking on water and suffering engine trouble as the cyclone hit.

*The stricken vessel is carrying about 5,000 tonnes of zinc concentrate, and rescuers have warned it will likely sink.*

The incident was an inevitable result of operating the 113-metre vessel in a cyclone prone area, according to University of Sydney marine biologist Peter Cowell.

Dr Cowell was commissioned on behalf of the Carpentaria Land Council in 2002 to report on a Queensland Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) risk analysis of the Wunma cyclone contingency plan.

Pasminco was at that time operating the Wunma.
Dr Cowell's report found the EPA's risk analysis had been flawed and put the risk of such an event too low.

"There's actually quite a few tropical cyclones (that) travel over the Gulf of Carpentaria and each and every one is going to potentially put this ship at risk," Dr Cowell told reporters.

"Whereas they (EPA) said over many decades there's a tiny risk that something would go wrong, my assessment was that every year there was a high probability that it'd happen.

"So year-on-year the probability goes even greater that eventually it'd happen.

"I did that report in 2002, it's now the beginning of 2007 and it's happened."
He said if the barge was salvaged and continued to operate, it would sink again in the future, possibly with even worse results.

"(You have) got to bear in mind that this cargo is environmentally toxic and it's operating in an area with dugongs and prawn fisheries and a very complex and rather pristine ecosystem," Dr Cowell said.

"You've got to invest sufficient money in an adequate plan to keep the risks low.

Comment was being sought from the EPA.

_Any thoughts on this article? Unsure if it's a current representation._


----------



## eMark (8 February 2007)

eMark said:
			
		

> Warning was given Zinifex barge would sink in cyclone
> 8/2/07:
> 
> The operators of a barge....I]




Re above news story....

Source: AAP NewsWire

http://www.industrysearch.com.au/news/viewrecord.aspx?id=24120


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## Kauri (9 February 2007)

Without attempting to predict price targets ZFX has reached a Typical WC and Typical W4 confluent area, suggesting a possible area where a reversal may occur. With todays action also signalling a possible reversal I have moved my stop closer waiting on Monday to see if it produces confirming price/vol action.


----------



## rico01 (12 February 2007)

For all the Zfx fans  from the citigroup site
Company In-Depth
Volatility Creates Opportunity
Zinc Price Downgrade - We have downgraded our FY07 estimate by 9% to A$1.58b driven by lower 1H07 zinc prices, down 14% to US$1.72 ¢/lb, We have also lowered our 2H dividend to A$1.10, previously A$1.50/share. Despite the downgrade, Zinifex remains our preferred base metal exposure driven by a zinc market deficit & higher 2H07 zinc prices, smelter spin-off and exploration. 
But Still Our Pick - Zinc prices are down ~25% year to date driven by base metal turbulence and a Chinese export driven spike in LME inventories in January. However, LME inventories have since fallen 5% and we do not expect China to become a structural net exporter of zinc. We forecast another deficit in the zinc market for 2007, with a higher average 2H07 price of US$2/lb. 

Century Risk - There is risk to Century production from loss of the cyclone damaged transfer vessel that is critical to the pipeline/port transport system. Damage and ability to secure a replacement vessel are being assessed, but Century can operate until end February, and smelters end March, based on stockpile capacity and inventories. A week's lost production is ~10kt of zinc. 

Smelter Spin-off - Regulatory approvals and due diligence are progressing for the signing of a binding agreement in 1H, for execution in the 2H, for the proposed smelter spin-off with Umicore (ACUMt.BR - â‚¬142.6; 1M). If we were to apportion our FY07 and FY08 Zinifex estimate between the "mining" and "smelting" assets based on EAT and EBITDA contribution, and then put the two components on peer group multiples, it would imply a share price for Zinifex of A$18-22/share.


----------



## Kauri (12 February 2007)

Kauri said:
			
		

> Without attempting to predict price targets ZFX has reached a Typical WC and Typical W4 confluent area, suggesting a possible area where a reversal may occur. With todays action also signalling a possible reversal I have moved my stop closer waiting on Monday to see if it produces confirming price/vol action.




    Over and out...


----------



## machi (12 February 2007)

Kauri said:
			
		

> Over and out...



This move down may well have been a zigzag, but we also gotta look at the other probable scenarios too. This may also be setting up for 1-2,1-2. The magnitude of the ensuing rally should give big clues as to the future direction of this stock. If this is a countertrend move it should not last any longer than 7-10 trading days and hold below the last countertrend move.


Cheers.

Overall the target  of $15-15.50 in the "Zinc the metal for 2006" thread back in lat Dec 2006 has come out quite well.


----------



## eMark (13 February 2007)

Can someone post the Merrills reccomendation re Zinifex (re short term trading opportunity etc), as recently mentioned on fnarena.com. Someone would have access to Merrills?

Thankyou


----------



## michael_selway (13 February 2007)

rico01 said:
			
		

> For all the Zfx fans  from the citigroup site
> Company In-Depth
> Volatility Creates Opportunity
> Zinc Price Downgrade - We have downgraded our FY07 estimate by 9% to A$1.58b driven by lower 1H07 zinc prices, down 14% to US$1.72 ¢/lb, We have also lowered our 2H dividend to A$1.10, previously A$1.50/share. Despite the downgrade, Zinifex remains our preferred base metal exposure driven by a zinc market deficit & higher 2H07 zinc prices, smelter spin-off and exploration.
> ...




Also there might be a share buy back?

Look what share buy back did to BHP

thx

MS


----------



## tech/a (13 February 2007)

Thought Id throw in a bit of VSA analysis on firstly daily to read in conjunction with the Elliot count---looks to callaborate.
But is seen AT THIS point as an up move in a corrective move.
Clusters of green alerts are powerful indicators.
Shorts are normally closed on the white diamonds as are longs and then taken in the direction of the diamond---Green long---Red short.

Then secondly the Weekly which is showing this also to be an up move in a corrective move.

IN BOTH CASES it is not clear wether this will be a continuation of the up move.But at this point highly likely to be simply a short move up before resuming the downward move.

Thought it would be good to watch.


----------



## Magdoran (13 February 2007)

tech/a said:
			
		

> Thought Id throw in a bit of VSA analysis on firstly daily to read in conjunction with the Elliot count---looks to callaborate.
> But is seen AT THIS point as an up move in a corrective move.
> Clusters of green alerts are powerful indicators.
> Shorts are normally closed on the white diamonds as are longs and then taken in the direction of the diamond---Green long---Red short.
> ...



Tend to agree.  The Zinc chart looks like it is in a bear campaign at least till 17 April or 23 May...  Which may well effect ZFX for quite a while.  Any moves here may well be a counter trend to a bearish drive...

Mag


----------



## wayneL (13 February 2007)

*Tech/a*

a/ what is that software?

b/ are they standard deviation bands on the volume chart? (the coloured regions)


----------



## misterS (13 February 2007)

Although Zfx management ought to be able to position it to thrive over time with the money being generated, the zinc price is admittedly still the spur of its volatilty.  

The surge in zinc exports from China may have been attributable (according to Merril Lynch) to producers moving to beat some mid-December tax changes that subsequently should have acted to reduce the attractiveness of exporting the metal from China.  (They say Jan export figures due on Feb 24th where the accuracy of this assertion may be supported - or not)

Also, the higher price outside China probably spurred exports, but this differential has basically corrected and the fundamental supply tightness in zinc for 07 should re-assert itself.


----------



## trendsta (13 February 2007)

Zinc inventory has only risen 10 - 15k since its low in early Dec. According to international zinc group zinc will be in deficit this year. If so, can view current price as low (or close to low) for this year.

Lead will add to the bottom line. 

Lastly what will ZFX do with all that cash once smelting operations are sold? If they announce a special dividend it could spur the price.


----------



## Kauri (13 February 2007)

I guess this won't do them any harm short term, or KZL either????




> Anglo-Swiss miner Xstrata said on Monday it had declared force majeure on lead deliveries due to problems at its Mount Isa smelter in Australia.
> 
> We have declared force majeure across our deliveries equitably across all our customers for the time being, because we have had lower deliveries from Mount Isa in Australia, a spokeswoman at Xstrata said.
> 
> ...


----------



## trendsta (13 February 2007)

Finally, first bit of good news for ZFX in weeks...


----------



## reece55 (13 February 2007)

Indeed Kauri, cheers for the update here, I saw a similar article around the place today...... Incidentally, I have a mate who worked at Xstrata's Mt Isa mine for a year - he said after a year his blood was so full of lead and he felt so sick, he left as soon as his contract ran out! Apparently,  the smelter is just a piece of sh#% that pollutes chronically, but due to legislation in place, the smelter doesn't have to meet the normal pollution standard as long as it stays in commission.......

I agree with you trensta - what will ZFX do with all the cash once the smelters are sold? There are estimates that they may make as much as 3 Billion out of the deal and with the likely profit estimates in the realm of 1.5 Bil, that's more than half there market cap earned in a year's work - just incredible! Whilst the technical picture is bleak at the moment, the numbers this monolith appears to be pumping out are incredible. 

Cheers


----------



## toothfairy (13 February 2007)

If the price of Zn stays @ present level or go even lower, will there be any hiccups selling the smelters at 3 billions? Then there is the hurdle of the public offers of the new company. I am just a bit worried if POZ goes south by that time! Is the deal solid as rock (or zinc for that matter?)


----------



## michael_selway (13 February 2007)

trendsta said:
			
		

> Zinc inventory has only risen 10 - 15k since its low in early Dec. According to international zinc group zinc will be in deficit this year. If so, can view current price as low (or close to low) for this year.
> 
> Lead will add to the bottom line.
> 
> Lastly what will ZFX do with all that cash once smelting operations are sold? If they announce a special dividend it could spur the price.




Hiyeah ist a decifit in 2007, people forgot!

*ZFX - Earnings and Dividends Forecast (cents per share) 
2006 2007 2008 2009 
EPS 219.9 325.0 266.3 182.5 
DPS 80.0 184.0 145.1 78.9 * 

thx

MS


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## LeGorfou (14 February 2007)

ZFX have gone very quiet on the barge in the Gulf. Has anyone heard anything about when or if  it will be back in action or if they have arranged a replacement?

Health and Safety are involved as well - is there any chance that this will delay the barges being back in action?

While Zinc was up last night, overall there may be some negatives ahead.


----------



## Kauri (15 February 2007)

LeGorfou said:
			
		

> ZFX have gone very quiet on the barge in the Gulf. Has anyone heard anything about when or if it will be back in action or if they have arranged a replacement?
> 
> Health and Safety are involved as well - is there any chance that this will delay the barges being back in action?
> 
> While Zinc was up last night, overall there may be some negatives ahead.




   Barge is in Weipa, electrical problems due to be repaired by weekend, cargo O.K, should be back in service soon. No shutdown of Century likely.


   Is ZFX putting in a minor W1, setting up for a W2????


----------



## wavepicker (15 February 2007)

Kauri said:
			
		

> Barge is in Weipa, electrical problems due to be repaired by weekend, cargo O.K, should be back in service soon. No shutdown of Century likely.
> 
> 
> Is ZFX putting in a minor W1, setting up for a W2????




Quite possible, but could also be from the Jan high a series of 1-2, 1-2, 1-2 and then the point of recognition to follow!!!  Take your pick

Cheers


----------



## Kauri (15 February 2007)

wavepicker said:
			
		

> Quite possible, but could also be from the Jan high a series of 1-2, 1-2, 1-2 and then the point of recognition to follow!!! Take your pick
> 
> Cheers




  What exactly is a 1-2,1-2,1-2. In my younger days I was sat on my bum more then once by a pretty mean 1-2 combination, but I don't think that is what you are referring to.  
  I try not to pick, rather I let the chart action validate/invalidate.. i.e. if this does turn into a W1 followed by  W2, I wouldn't be looking to enter until the W1 high was taken out on price/vol action. What would we be looking for for a 1-2,1-2,1-2??
        Cheers
                   Kauri


----------



## Rafa (15 February 2007)

a 1-2-1-2...    

now i have heard it all!!


----------



## wavepicker (15 February 2007)

Kauri said:
			
		

> What exactly is a 1-2,1-2,1-2. In my younger days I was sat on my bum more then once by a pretty mean 1-2 combination, but I don't think that is what you are referring to.
> I try not to pick, rather I let the chart action validate/invalidate.. i.e. if this does turn into a W1 followed by  W2, I wouldn't be looking to enter until the W1 high was taken out on price/vol action. What would we be looking for for a 1-2,1-2,1-2??
> Cheers
> Kauri



Quite clearly described in EWP by Frost and Prechter, it's the early stages of a 3rd of wave unfolding or subdividing(nesting 1-2 subdivisions).  Unfortunately, quite a few Radgephiles are not aware of it. It's the bread and butter of the EW technician.  The "Point Of Recognition" is the middle point of the 3rd wave, the 3rd of the 3rd of the 3rd. That is when the crowd finally realizes the direction of the trend, at such times you see gapping and wide ranging bars.

Getting into the habit of labelling waves 1-2,1-2,1-2 instead of just 1,2,3,4,5 can be the difference between making a some $$ and lots of $$.


----------



## Freeballinginawetsuit (15 February 2007)

LOL, come on really!.   :  
There is a lot easier way of explaining the price action than all those number counts.


----------



## wavepicker (15 February 2007)

Freeballinginawetsuit said:
			
		

> LOL, come on really!.   :
> There is a lot easier way of explaining the price action than all those number counts.




Tell me more beachbum. I would love to know it. What do you use, lagging MA crossovers or bollingers???? They aint worth telling you jack, if you think they do, then you are deluding yourself.

EW aint perfect, it aint even hard, but it is one of the best keys to explaining  market behaviour.


----------



## rwkni1 (15 February 2007)

wavepicker said:
			
		

> Tell me more beachbum. I would love to know it. What do you use, lagging MA crossovers or bollingers???? They aint worth telling you jack, if you think they do, then you are deluding yourself.
> 
> EW aint perfect, it aint even hard, but it is one of the best keys to explaining market behaviour.




Zinc price moves up, ZFX moves up.
Zinc price moves down, ZFX moves down.
I reckon that's a pretty simple and accurate way of explaining the daily price movement.


----------



## wavepicker (15 February 2007)

rwkni1 said:
			
		

> Zinc price moves up, ZFX moves up.
> Zinc price moves down, ZFX moves down.
> I reckon that's a pretty simple and accurate way of explaining the daily price movement.




If only it were that easy!!!


What you are talking about is an effect. How do you know what zinc is gonna do from day to day or week to week??? Simple you don't! You need a mechanism to examine  price pattern and  motion in order to asses the probabilities of future movement. You don't need the EWP to do it, but you do need a method that will give you an edge.

Simply looking at what zinc price, oil price etc won't help you. What you have to realize is that the forces of the market internal, dynamic, and they feed upon themselves. 

There are only 2 things necessary for you to decide:
1- which way the market is trending
2- knowing when the trend is at risk of ending


----------



## rwkni1 (15 February 2007)

Sorry, i was just being a smart ****. You're right, i don't know what zinc is gonna do day to day. But, i do think that no matter what the technical indicators say,the fundamentals will always over-ride. i.e. even if every technical indicator imagineable was pointing to a rise in share price tomorrow, if someone dumps 4,000t onto the LME tonight ZFX will go down.



			
				wavepicker said:
			
		

> If only it were that easy!!!
> 
> 
> What you are talking about is an effect. How do you know what zinc is gonna do from day to day or week to week??? Simple you don't! You need a mechanism to examine  price pattern and  motion in order to asses the probabilities of future movement. You don't need the EWP to do it, but you do need a method that will give you an edge.
> ...


----------



## Freeballinginawetsuit (15 February 2007)

wavepicker said:
			
		

> Tell me more beachbum. I would love to know it. What do you use, lagging MA crossovers or bollingers???? They aint worth telling you jack, if you think they do, then you are deluding yourself.
> 
> EW aint perfect, it aint even hard, but it is one of the best keys to explaining market behaviour.




None of the above WP, not picking at you just seemed a complicated way of explaining market sentiment in ZFX ATM.

And yep I do like the beach


----------



## Kauri (15 February 2007)

wavepicker said:
			
		

> Quite clearly described in EWP by Frost and Prechter, it's the early stages of a 3rd of wave unfolding or subdividing(nesting 1-2 subdivisions). Unfortunately, quite a few Radgephiles are not aware of it. It's the bread and butter of the EW technician.




Hi wavepicker,

Thanks for the detailed explanation, although it is all a bit over my head at the moment. Plenty to think about. 

It may be rather simplistic but so far I have found the basic E/W labelling to serve me quite well....so far anyway.  

A Radgephile.... well thats really not worth commenting on.


----------



## wavepicker (15 February 2007)

rwkni1 said:
			
		

> Sorry, i was just being a smart ****. You're right, i don't know what zinc is gonna do day to day. But, i do think that no matter what the technical indicators say,the fundamentals will always over-ride. i.e. even if every technical indicator imagineable was pointing to a rise in share price tomorrow, if someone dumps 4,000t onto the LME tonight ZFX will go down.




Understand what you are saying about fundementals rwk, especially long term economic fundementals which probably account for 75% of price motion. Although having quite a profound impact on price these are slow and smooth. About 23% of the price motion consists of the sum of a number of periodic-cyclic "waves". These are oscillatory about the major fundemental trendline.
Very little stock price movement is white noise or random in nature.

I am firm believer that medium to short term fundementals lag price motion. The trends in the market place are expression of collective social mood that has very little to with short term/medium price fundementals. Have talked about this before with Rederob and Michael selway on the "Zinc the metal for 2006" thread.  Back in late Dec, the fundementals where saying a screaming buy for Zinc/ZFX.  
The case was put forward (using TA)for a peak in Zinc/ZFX which would point to a significant decline. (see posts #543,545,547 in that thread). One week later that decline started, sending Zinc to $3000 per ton and ZFX to $15.

Wetsuit, there is nothing complicated about EWP.  It's just one of a number of tools that is useful to look at market behaviour

Cheers


----------



## Nick Radge (15 February 2007)

What is that chart wavepicker? 

With regard to ZFX, maybe you're right, and maybe I'll miss the next move, but for my money ZFX will have another leg lower first in quite a simple double zig zag off the highs. Emphasis on simple - which maybe I am. Then we move higher. If my analysis is incorrect, so what, an opportunity lost is all.

Sincerely, 

Radgephile


----------



## michael_selway (15 February 2007)

Nick Radge said:
			
		

> What is that chart wavepicker?
> 
> With regard to ZFX, maybe you're right, and maybe I'll miss the next move, but for my money ZFX will have another leg lower first in quite a simple double zig zag off the highs. Emphasis on simple - which maybe I am. Then we move higher. If my analysis is incorrect, so what, an opportunity lost is all.
> 
> ...




Hi Nick, are u bullish or bearish, on ZFX in the ST, MT and LT?

thx

MS


----------



## Nick Radge (15 February 2007)

Michael,
My _simplistic_ view is that the next week or so runs the risk of seeing ZFX pulling back to $14.00, give or take $0.30. Whilst the longer term trends are bullish we should see new highs after that pullback. 

However, my main concern is Zinc itself. I should disclose that I do not trade stocks basis the underlying commodity or index, I trade  them for what they themselves show me. Zinc is a major concern though. I think we'll see strength over the coming month, possibly back toward $4000 and then we'll fail again. This strength would be enough to satisfy my immediate bullish thinking on ZFX but I cannot see that Zinc strength sustainable in the intermediate term. 

Actually, the Zinc pattern is 100% identical to Allco Finance (AFG), which I said on 31 Jan, "..we will trade lower again, probably to $12.00 as a minimum..". Today AFG dropped 6% to $11.80 or so. Zinc is the same pattern. A spoof rally is about to occur and suck in the perennial bulls...enough to spit them out again.


----------



## reece55 (15 February 2007)

Nick
I'm with you here.... this rally seems to just be a sucker bet to get the retailers interested..... Volume is well down of late and whilst Zinc has recovered, its still well down on were it has been in the past.

Will the financial's due on Wednesday commence the next down move????

Cheers


----------



## wavepicker (15 February 2007)

Nick Radge said:
			
		

> What is that chart wavepicker?
> 
> With regard to ZFX, maybe you're right, and maybe I'll miss the next move, but for my money ZFX will have another leg lower first in quite a simple double zig zag off the highs. Emphasis on simple - which maybe I am. Then we move higher. If my analysis is incorrect, so what, an opportunity lost is all.
> 
> ...




Hi Nick,

Not 100% sure what ZFX will do at this juncture, and was not referencing your analysis at all. Have not seen it.  Was just listing some additional possibilities to those Kauri had mentioned in the earlier post. One has to really have an open mind as to all the possibilities in theis business.

As to the Radgephile, that was a nick(no pun intended hehe)  that another poster used some time back.

PS: the chart was just an example to explain to kauri was I was trying to say (in this case in the EURUSD)

Cheers


----------



## eMark (15 February 2007)

reece55 said:
			
		

> Will the financial's due on Wednesday commence the next down move????




Or will the financials due commence a further move up? Based on a higher dividend & half yearly results.


----------



## Freeballinginawetsuit (15 February 2007)

Nick Radge said:
			
		

> Michael,
> 
> Actually, the Zinc pattern is 100% identical to Allco Finance (AFG), which I said on 31 Jan, "..we will trade lower again, probably to $12.00 as a minimum..". Today AFG dropped 6% to $11.80 or so. Zinc is the same pattern. A spoof rally is about to occur and suck in the perennial bulls...enough to spit them out again.




If I may ask a simplistic question, why is it necessesary to draw a comparison of Zn as a commodity to AFG (Allco Finance). 

You have mentioned that the pattern is the same. Are the business interests of a finance company and a commodity company reflected in patterns on a chart and mutually driven by external market influences. Quite obviously many experienced punters on ASF value youre expertise in EW greatly but in the end isn't it just attempting an easy view of punters fundamental calls and market outlook. Just the same as Windows makes an easy view/operation of a computer as opposed to MSDOS. In the end the programming/market dynamics are what make both entitys succesful  

Surely time and the exhaustion of sellers will inherently drive a Companies net worth if the company/market dynamics still exist. ATM Zn is a sheer necessity and this need is not going away in the Short Term, many factors can and have manipulated the current spot price of Zn none of these are relative to its necessity as a product in the current market place. 

Would this not be the reason for many a commodity stocks current price, as opposed to a couple of years ago?. It is entirely possable we may see another spoof rally  for Zinc, we have had a couple of those in 06, no doubt 07 will have a few.

As for the Bulls being spat out, theirs probably no 'Spoof' left in them, its all drained and in the bank, or eyeballing the next fundamental call.


----------



## rederob (15 February 2007)

Zinc's fundamentals remain wholly intact.
The recent correction was spurred by a massive selloff from Chinese zinc producers on arbitrage opportunities and local tax rebates. This has not yet worked itself through the metals system and warehouse drawdowns remain subdued.
The current commodity bull has seen a number of metals afflicted by a "destocking sysndrome" which has subsequently sent the metal's price higher still.  It occurred first for nickel, then copper, and tin and lead, and now zinc.
I can't see 2007 being a great year for metals generally, but neither do I see it as a poor year.
More likely, a year where some great price swings offer some excellent opportunities as money moves from commodities that are in rapidly changing favour.  In this latter regard, watch out for a big spike in nickel prices - again.
As for me and ZFX; it gave me a 70% return in 2006, so with a current pe of about 6 I reckon there is a fair chance I can just milk the dividends for a while and not worry overly about price action.


----------



## Nick Radge (16 February 2007)

The fundamentals of Zinc may be strong. I don't disagree with that. What I said is that I doubt any immediate strength in Zinc can be sustained. In other words I wholly expect short term strength but we should not see new highs in Zinc in the near term. 

Markets are driven ultimately by fundamentals, however in the interim they are driven by supply and demand which in turn is extraploated to fear and greed. These factors create price patterns and because human emotion stays the same over the generations, so do these price patterns. The patterns can be simple (such as micro triangles and congestions) to more complex patterns such as Elliott Wave. Because human emotion is always involved we have a vast depository of these price patterns to draw on. When they recur we can assign probabilities and more importantly we can assign right/wrong attributes to protect our capital. We can assign the same for fundamentals, albeit in a slightly different light. Rederob has essentially identified a pattern that he is happy with. Most fundamentalists do the same without really recognising it. A better word for "pattern" maybe be "checklist". What is the PE? What is the state of the economy? What is the state of the company? What are its EPS? etc etc. Its a pattern that once you're comfortable with will enable you to take a position.

Therefore a price pattern in AFG has the same attributes as that pattern in Zinc. By drawing on the same patterns we can get an idea of what to expect and when we'll be proven wrong. Look at Gold. I publically said on these pages when Gold was nearer $600 that we should see $680 again. We're within a few dollars of that. My point though is that the price of Gold followed a pattern that has been repeated hundreds of thousands of times. Because it repeated does not mean it will repeat again. But we do know when we're wrong beforehand and that allows a quantifiable risk to be accepted or rejected. 

What is a quantifiable risk with regard to long positions in Zinc? There is none with respect to the fundamentals. When they change, then so should your positions or attitude toward Zinc however we can't know what the price of Zinc will be when those have changed. Look at TIM as the most recent example. The fundamentals were apparently very strong according to a swathe of highly paid anaysts. Now the outlook has changed, but only after the price plunged.


----------



## michael_selway (16 February 2007)

Nick Radge said:
			
		

> The fundamentals of Zinc may be strong. I don't disagree with that. What I said is that I doubt any immediate strength in Zinc can be sustained. In other words I wholly expect short term strength but we should not see new highs in Zinc in the near term.
> 
> Markets are driven ultimately by fundamentals, however in the interim they are driven by supply and demand which in turn is extraploated to fear and greed. These factors create price patterns and because human emotion stays the same over the generations, so do these price patterns. The patterns can be simple (such as micro triangles and congestions) to more complex patterns such as Elliott Wave. Because human emotion is always involved we have a vast depository of these price patterns to draw on. When they recur we can assign probabilities and more importantly we can assign right/wrong attributes to protect our capital. We can assign the same for fundamentals, albeit in a slightly different light. Rederob has essentially identified a pattern that he is happy with. Most fundamentalists do the same without really recognising it. A better word for "pattern" maybe be "checklist". What is the PE? What is the state of the economy? What is the state of the company? What are its EPS? etc etc. Its a pattern that once you're comfortable with will enable you to take a position.
> 
> ...




TIM you mean fundamentals changed, then price dropped?

ZINC price dropped but fundamentals didnt change much imo

thx

MS


----------



## Halba (16 February 2007)

i notice the drawdown rate of inventories has been extremely slow


----------



## toothfairy (16 February 2007)

Interesting to see whether sp of ZFX today will follow the wavy peaple's theory of 1-2,1-2, 1-2 ( down ), OR follow the POZ overnight (up).
My guess is UP.


----------



## wavepicker (16 February 2007)

toothfairy said:
			
		

> Interesting to see whether sp of ZFX today will follow the wavy peaple's theory of 1-2,1-2, 1-2 ( down ), OR follow the POZ overnight (up).
> My guess is UP.




Hey toothache,

I suggested that another  possibility on top of what kauri posted was a series of nesting 1-2's.  Not that this will in fact happen as I don't know what will happen until we have more market price information at hand. What I did say about Zinc/ZFX back in late Dec was that it was a high probablilty that at a top was in, and that Zinc would fall back to $3000 and ZFX will fall back to $15-15.5 That did actually happen as expected. That pattern was just too convincing to be otherwise.

Now further analysis is needed to determine if the trend will continue down or not.  If this move up is a countertrend it should hold lower than the last swing high and then we may get a fast move down. If not then the entire move down to date will be fully retraced.
 I don't hold any positions in ZFX (never have)so my opinion is totally unbiased

Cheers


----------



## trendsta (16 February 2007)

Another round of good news for ZFX today:



> BRUSSELS (AFX) - Umicore posted forecast-beating full-year results as it continues its transformation from a metal to a materials technology group, with investors anticipating the company's proposed listing of its zinc joint venture with Australian peer Zinifex....
> 
> He also countered suggestions that Umicore would delay the timing of the IPO to accommodate the evolution of zinc prices.
> 
> The venture, seen as a 60:40 Zinifex-Umicore spit and planned for the third quarter, will to lead to the world's leading producer of zinc metal ahead of Korea Zinc and Xstrata PLC.




http://www.basemetals.com

Also, due to Bernanke speech and moderately positive outlook about US economy the metals complex is higher... Zinc also moving up nicely.


----------



## toothfairy (16 February 2007)

wavepicker said:
			
		

> Hey toothache,
> 
> I suggested that another  possibility on top of what kauri posted was a series of nesting 1-2's.  Not that this will in fact happen as I don't know what will happen until we have more market price information at hand. What I did say about Zinc/ZFX back in late Dec was that it was a high probablilty that at a top was in, and that Zinc would fall back to $3000 and ZFX will fall back to $15-15.5 That did actually happen as expected. That pattern was just too convincing to be otherwise.
> 
> ...



Unless you can say POZ also follow the 1-2, 1-2, 1-2 pattern. I can't see ZFX sp follows 1-2,1-2,1-2 pattern. ZFX sp more affected by POZ, which is in turn affected by end-user. Shares of banks  may follow the above pattern due to people's psychological make-up and generally their news is boring, but ZFX is affected by POZ as well.
The medium term bullishness in Zn does give this share a very good support and uptrend momentum. Short term (weeks) volatility is a must and that's where you can make more $. I just can't say it follows any patterns, that's all.
You can't say you are neutral if you don't hold ZFX shares, you may be bearish. (Apart from a very few brave short sellers). I am neutral because I did sell out a few weeks ago and only lately starting to buy back 20%. I don't care weather it goes up or down, I just trade.That way, I have no toothache!


----------



## Magdoran (16 February 2007)

I’ve seen a lot of technical players in my time, and I can say without a doubt that out of all the people contributing to the ASF site, and in fact all the trader’s I’ve ever met in my lifetime, that wavepicker is the most gifted, seasoned, and learned EW player I have ever met.

With all due respect, most people only know very basic concepts in EW, but it is a very detailed discipline, which takes years to fully grasp.  The foundations are certainly contained in the body of knowledge developed by Robert Prechter over many year.  While some of his concepts are necessarily flawed, I would argue that to be fully conversant in EW theory requires a detailed knowledge and understanding of his work .  

Many of the counts I’ve seen on this site look more like they are based on Robert Fisher’s approach, which is an alternative school to the Prechter/Frost approach.  wavepicker is more from the Prechter school, although is conversant in Fisher’s concepts too, but has refined his own unique style.  The subtleties contained in wavepicker’s work are probably not easy to recognise from a novice's perspective, and it is more likely that seasoned EW practitioners will appreciate the knowledge and innovative approach wavepicker has developed.

What many people fail to realise, is that many different markets trade in very similar patterns, from Forex, to commodities to stocks and indexes.  The core technical analysis principles based on an astute observation of how markets trend can translate very well almost universally.  Hence the confusion when less knowledgable people raise distinctions between different asset classes, misunderstanding the applicability of pattern recognition across markets.  Some people seem particularly obtuse when it comes to recognising this simple concept, not grasping the key point.

In sum, there are a lot of novice EW players out there that would benefit from the depth of knowledge wavepicker has.  Also, those unable to see the forest for the trees when it comes to patterns of trend are splitting hairs.  

Those who are fundamentally based just won’t understand what all the fuss is about because their discipline is radically different, hence it’s probably better for such people to stick to very long term perspectives since that is that approaches nature.  (Broad strategic thinking, as opposed to shorter term swing and position trading with leveraged instruments which requires more short term precision in time and price and wave structure).  Hence I fully understand the disconnect between FA and TA players -  fundamental and technical perspectives I think are actually complementary, but are different tools for different jobs.


Regards


Magdoran


----------



## wavepicker (16 February 2007)

toothfairy said:
			
		

> Unless you can say POZ also follow the 1-2, 1-2, 1-2 pattern. I can't see ZFX sp follows 1-2,1-2,1-2 pattern. ZFX sp more affected by POZ, which is in turn affected by end-user. Shares of banks  may follow the above pattern due to people's psychological make-up and generally their news is boring, but ZFX is affected by POZ as well.
> The medium term bullishness in Zn does give this share a very good support and uptrend momentum. Short term (weeks) volatility is a must and that's where you can make more $. I just can't say it follows any patterns, that's all.
> You can't say you are neutral if you don't hold ZFX shares, you may be bearish. (Apart from a very few brave short sellers). I am neutral because I did sell out a few weeks ago and only lately starting to buy back 20%. I don't care weather it goes up or down, I just trade.That way, I have no toothache!




Hey Tooth,

EWP is in force on all stocks at all times, just like many natural cycles are.  Whether the average guy can see it as an easily identifiable pattern is another story completely. Usually the more liquid the instrument the more easily it is make head or tails from market patterns/motion compared to the random noise. There are offcourse cycles/patterns that are more peculiar to some stocks. Therefore whether we are talking about banks, miners or anything traded, it should not really matter. As far as being bearish ZFX goes, I was bearish in late Dec/early Jan and went short ZFX. ATM not 100% certain but will hopefully have a fair idea by end of next week if the right pattern/probability  presents itself. Good luck with ZFX and good to see you have no toothache, hope ZFX does not give you any headaches.

Cheers


----------



## moses (16 February 2007)

I won't buy ZFX, and hardly even bother watching it anymore, because it is unreliable and doesn't make sense to me. It kept rising after the dividend (very bullish!) and then when everything seemed fine suddenly reversed. Who knows what it is going to do next...I see the experts arguing back and forth, but basically the ZFX SP has moved from steady growth and huge reliable potential into confusion.

Goodluck to the Rederob's of this world who, as fundamentalists, bought in so low that the swings really don't matter either way, and goodluck to the Wavepickers who see patterns in the noise and trade the swings. But for this little black duck ZFX has moved into the zone of the dark arts, and as it hasn't a hope in hell today of being a 10 bagger anymore why take the risk?

Emotive? Perhaps. But thats the market...


----------



## trendsta (16 February 2007)

moses said:
			
		

> I won't buy ZFX, and hardly even bother watching it anymore, because it is unreliable and doesn't make sense to me. It kept rising after the dividend (very bullish!) and then when everything seemed fine suddenly reversed. Who knows what it is going to do next...I see the experts arguing back and forth, but basically the ZFX SP has moved from steady growth and huge reliable potential into confusion.
> 
> Goodluck to the Rederob's of this world who, as fundamentalists, bought in so low that the swings really don't matter either way, and goodluck to the Wavepickers who see patterns in the noise and trade the swings. But for this little black duck ZFX has moved into the zone of the dark arts, and as it hasn't a hope in hell today of being a 10 bagger anymore why take the risk?
> 
> Emotive? Perhaps. But thats the market...




Fundamentals for ZFX have changed very little. If they have it has been on the positive side. 
- Zinc stocks are 96k, only 10k above the lowest level in Dec last year. Zinc prices are still strong. 
- Lead stock levels are at their lowest. Prices close to their highest
- ZFX will have additional $3 billion odd by divesting its smeliting operations 

The market perception keeps changing. Essentially it depends on your own financial goals. If investing for a year or more you can simply block this noise. If you are trading for short term thats another story - fundamentals matter less, market perception, psychology, etc matters more.


----------



## rederob (16 February 2007)

Magdoran
You are probably right in many regards.

The only issue I have with wavepicker's approach is that its forward view is too two bob each way, and so be it.

Every forward view is prone to major revision on unknown factors, over and above those that have been anticipated.

In the case of zinc late last year, a top had clearly been achieved and a retrace was due.  However, the extent of the retrace was exacerbated by Chinese taxation policies on zinc that enabled excess metal to be immediately exported for substantial profit.  The data on this are now well established.  

Given that zinc producers are themselves presently proposing that 2007 will be "balanced" for zinc, it will be a brave person that goes overly bullish.  Producers are in the market, know their competition, and study brownfield and greenfield trends because that regularly impacts their decision making processes.
It does not imply they get it  right, because they are only using "known" information based on current trends.  Greater global industrial production can sharply swing a tight market and rapidly raise zinc prices.  The downside is less of a problem as it will take a substantial period of time to get inventories to their previous "balanced" level, and those wanting to exit will not lose their shirts if they are half smart.

The reason I remain more bullish now that even I thought I would be is because data from Japan, India and Europe is suggesting the negativity of America's present downturn is being absorbed elsewhere through upturns.
Anyone following LME inventories (as a proxy) will see strong warrantings in the USA - for various metals - being counteracted by drawdowns on other continents.
Should America's economy turn around any time soon, watch out!
In the meantime, I just "watch".


----------



## wavepicker (16 February 2007)

Magdoran said:
			
		

> I’ve seen a lot of technical players in my time, and I can say without a doubt that out of all the people contributing to the ASF site, and in fact all the trader’s I’ve ever met in my lifetime, that wavepicker is the most gifted, seasoned, and learned EW player I have ever met.
> 
> With all due respect, most people only know very basic concepts in EW, but it is a very detailed discipline, which takes years to fully grasp.  The foundations are certainly contained in the body of knowledge developed by Robert Prechter over many year.  While some of his concepts are necessarily flawed, I would argue that to be fully conversant in EW theory requires a detailed knowledge and understanding of his work .
> 
> ...




Hi Mag, thanks for your kind words, dunno about the "gifted part"

Let's just say like yourself, we both try look at a chart as objectively as possible.

Rederob,

It really depends on what your goals are in terms of developing a trading approach. Both Mag and myself are short to medium players trying to practice precision timing approaches. We patiently stalk stocks/instruments assesing  probabilities that meet our  price,pattern and time requirements. 

Our strategies are primarily based upon taking up positions :-
-at the completion of counter trend moves
-early in 3rd wave setups at the degrees of trend we wish to trade
- at the completion of trends and taking up contrarian positions

You and many others on this thread appear to have more longer term objectives are in the buy and hold school. 

Clearly it really depends what you want from the market

Cheers


----------



## rederob (16 February 2007)

wavepicker
If it works, use it.
If it doesn't, don't!

The markets are an interest for me, not my "living".
I do, therefore, trade with a long horizon, and am never in a hurry to buy or sell because the issue of "preserving capital" is not a factor I need to consider.

I am grateful for your insightful charts as it makes little sense to me in not being armed with as much information as possible, regardless of personal viewpoint.

You might notice I don't shy from a bit of confrontation.  Not because I am necessarily disagreeable, but I find that "wounding" the enemy brings out their strongest fight.  Only then do I have to truly confront my stupidity.
Borrowing from politics, I need to determine when to "cut and run", "stay the course", or remain besotted to my ignorance because "in my heart of hearts I know I am right".

But on thread, is ZFX worth a punt?
I like moses' early reply - and agree it's a hard one to want to be on right now.
But I also believe, and perhaps you, kauri and others agree, that this sector offers massive percentage gains when the hurdles are met for a trade.

I would like to think I could "set and forget" ZFX (and KZL), but their volatility can swing me up or down by $10k or more on any given day, so I really do have to "watch" them.  I don't "worry" about them, though, because there is enough info out there for me to determine when it's wise to implement the exit strategy.  In the case of ZFX, there is a juicy dividend to look forward to so I doubt it will see too many jumping ship until the storm clouds have well and truly cast their shadow over the stock.


----------



## michael_selway (16 February 2007)

Hi yeah not bad

*EPS(c) PE Growth 
Year Ending 30-06-07 321.7 5.1 46.3% 
Year Ending 30-06-08 266.3 6.2 -17.2% 

Earnings and Dividends Forecast (cents per share) 
2006 2007 2008 2009 
EPS 219.9 321.7 266.3 182.5 
DPS 80.0 184.0 145.1 78.9 * 

thx

MS


----------



## Nick Radge (17 February 2007)

Mag,
If your reference to the Fischer method is at me then you are correct. I'd even go further to say that I'm more aligned with Miner rather than Fischer. Prechter is a great analyst and more so a theorist but I feel there is a major step between that and trading which Miner has grasped. As others have said, what ever you feel works for you. My public record with EW trading (shorts & longs) is +45% in 7-months. 

Anyway, this thread is not on the semantics of Elliott Wave or mine being bigger than yours but rather ZFX. Here is my short term view on ZFX. A break up through $18.28 would probably render this immediate view incorrect.








_This post may contain advice that has been prepared by Reef Capital Coaching ABN 24 092 309 978 (“RCC”) and is general advice and does not take account of your objectives, financial situation or needs. Before acting on this general advice you should therefore consider the appropriateness of the advice having regard to your situation. We recommend you obtain financial, legal and taxation advice before making any financial investment decision.

Past performance is not a reliable indication of future performance. This material has been prepared based on information believed to be accurate at the time of publication. Subsequent changes in circumstances may occur at any time and may impact the accuracy of the information._


----------



## toothfairy (17 February 2007)

Hi Nick,
As I mentioned before with wavepicker that ZFX sp is affected a lot by POZ, I can't see its sp will go down to anywhere near $14 if POZ stays around US$15/lb (or higher). If you can say POZ also will go to as low as US$12-13, then your prediction is possible. 
If ZFX goes to $14 @ the present POZ, I will put $100,000 in.
Cheers.


----------



## machi (17 February 2007)

Nick Radge said:
			
		

> Mag,
> If your reference to the Fischer method is at me then you are correct. I'd even go further to say that I'm more aligned with Miner rather than Fischer. Prechter is a great analyst and more so a theorist but I feel there is a major step between that and trading which Miner has grasped. As others have said, what ever you feel works for you. My public record with EW trading (shorts & longs) is +45% in 7-months.
> 
> Anyway, this thread is not on the semantics of Elliott Wave or mine being bigger than yours but rather ZFX. Here is my short term view on ZFX. A break up through $18.28 would probably render this immediate view incorrect.
> ...





Hello Nick, thanks for sharing for opinion regarding Zinifix.

I have been trying to apply Elliott Waves for 4-5 years now and perhaps not as seasoned as you.

One aspect in the above labelling did catch my eye though, and that is the way you have labelled wave iv. Is this suppost to be a triangle? If so does not a triangle break down into Elliott 5 smaller waves a-b-c-b-d-e, whereas your analysis breaks it into a 3 wave move??

It seems an assumption has been made here, and in order to have the most objective wave count then one must label in the basic tenets of Elliott as the smaller wave structures should be building blocks for the bigger wave structures. In my opinion in order for a count to show some validity and a chance of being correct, then the smaller waves have to "add up".

Jus my opinion

Regards


----------



## wavepicker (17 February 2007)

Nick Radge said:
			
		

> Mag,
> If your reference to the Fischer method is at me then you are correct. I'd even go further to say that I'm more aligned with Miner rather than Fischer. Prechter is a great analyst and more so a theorist but I feel there is a major step between that and trading which Miner has grasped.




Hi Nick, I have studied the works of Fischer some 5 years ago. If we are talking about the same text it deals primarily with the application Fibonacci relationships for trading and to a lesser extent the basics of EW. The last chapter describes the pioneering and application of a logarithmic spiral to determine turning points in the market. I programmed this technique and used it for quite a while, but have made greater advances in other areas and have since discarded it.

For pure EW I would never go past Prechter and EWI. He is a great trader and broke the record in the US trading championships in 1984. (444% return in 4 months in options) Although his subscription services at EWI primarly look after retail and insitutional investors, but also caters for traders as well. 
IMO they have the best resources for EW traders in terms trading signals and in particular education.  


Cheers

Wavepicker


----------



## barney (17 February 2007)

Hi Lads, As you know I am still learning my TA, but I'm getting a few right lately, so I thought I'd put myself in the firing line on ZFX (again) . I was going to put this in the "Improving Chart Analysis" thread, but its predominantly about ZFX anyway.

Firstly, I know next to nothing about EW theory, but appreciate the chance to learn a bit about it off you guys.  I'll stick to basic TA for the moment.

ZFX to me looks like it is coming off a double bottom on RSI with divergance on the sp. This often signals a spike up (This has in fact already happened) 

BUT,   ... I think the market in general is looking like a slight retrace is on the cards. It has gone hard and steep for a month and a half. Fridays slight sell off may be a pre-curser to a further drop next week.

That being the case, I see the recent turn around on ZFX to be short lived. IMO it may rise a little more this week (maybe low $17's), but I would expect a medium correction back to $16 (support level) in the near future.

Once that retrace is out of the way, I think it will be full steam ahead for another month or so (beware the May-June correction ..... people are creatures of habit!!)

Of course the market may rally next week instead of retracing, which I believe would only change the timing/price levels of the above analysis, but not the general pattern.

Have a good weekend all.


----------



## Magdoran (17 February 2007)

Nick Radge said:
			
		

> Mag,
> If your reference to the Fischer method is at me then you are correct. I'd even go further to say that I'm more aligned with Miner rather than Fischer. Prechter is a great analyst and more so a theorist but I feel there is a major step between that and trading which Miner has grasped. As others have said, what ever you feel works for you. My public record with EW trading (shorts & longs) is +45% in 7-months.
> 
> Anyway, this thread is not on the semantics of Elliott Wave or mine being bigger than yours but rather ZFX. Here is my short term view on ZFX. A break up through $18.28 would probably render this immediate view incorrect.
> ...



Hello Nick,


Actually I was referring to some of the EW charts I’d seen around on various threads a lot of late by newer EW players, and the way they seemed to be counting the waves.  I observed that many of these charts were not taking into account patterns and wave counts for example along the lines of the chart wavepicker posted which started this discussion.  The styles I saw reminded me of the count and pattern approaches of Robert Fisher.  

I have heard of Miner, but as yet have not researched his works, hence some interest in a synopsis from your perspective would be appreciated. As you well know EW has many different approaches that have been pioneered from the 1930s as, like the Fibonacci schools with people like Robert Rhea for example.  I have compared Gann and Fibonacci increments for a few years now in concert with Prechter/Frost EW approaches, and am still pioneering various methods. 

I have to say though that I still consider myself fairly much a junior in EW theory with a lot of gaps in my EW knowledge that I have yet to study and then use in practice successfully to my level of satisfaction (some might call this level intermediate depending on their perspective since I’ve spent a few years studying EW.  I’m a very tough task master, and I’d only consider myself “advanced” if I was at wavepicker’s level).

So, having established that Robert Miner’s works are a gap in my EW knowledge, I take it that your style is primarily based on his methods from your comments, is this correct?  How then would you compare his interpretation of Elliott to Prechter/Frost’s works, that would be interesting?

I’m not sure why you felt compelled to cite your public record in your post (which is undisputed – I’m sure your many years of trading at Macquarie stands as a testament to your commitment), or saw this as a debate in EW semantics, and I certainly do not see this as an ego contest – no one has a monopoly on any body of knowledge – there’s always something new around the corner, isn’t there?  Constructive dialogue and discussion would be the way I’d characterise the “polemic” so far (said with a wry smile).  

My impression is that many of the newer EW posters seem to be missing key concepts in their analysis from what I’ve seen, missing key building blocks that Prechter covers in depth, which is covered extensively by EWI for example as suggested by wavepicker.  But I accept that with any body of knowledge, that different styles and “schools” will develop each with their unique leanings and preferences, which is fine by me.  I’m all for diversity, and each trader I believe is on a personal journey of discovery…

So, on topic, I actually think in contrast to your focus on the ZFX chart alone, that Zinc is critical to ZFX’s price action, and that the commodity chart is more reliable to work with from an EW perspective.  So, I’ve attached my current thinking on Zinc below, but with time points included.  The actual way the waves play out of course may differ to the structure I’ve provided here, but the time cycle I think is currently valid.  Hence some highs and lows should come in around the key dates if my reading is correct…


Regards


Magdoran


----------



## rederob (17 February 2007)

Magdoran
Next week is Chinese new year and consumers will be away from the market.
Any downside to zinc should be sooner rather than later.
On the flip side zinc had its biggest warrant cancellation of the year, so outflow numbers may put off short players.
Fundamentally zinc inflow rate and volumes have withered substantially into 2007.
If this trend remains over the fortnight then it may be that "spare" zinc will no longer prop up prices, and LME drawdowns continue to be the theme from March.
I place a high probability on slight price declines in the next fortnight, with similar high probability on substantial price increases into the second quarter.

A fly in the ointment will be ZFX's report on Thursday, and whether or not it exceeds expectations.  Given that zinc price weakness only crept in during the latter part of the December quarter, statistically there will be a substantial increase in q on q profit.  If simple minded analysts "read" this as indicative of an even better second half then ZFX will quickly gather pace.
I won't predict market reaction to the announcement, as I don't regard markets as rational: A good recent example was the carnage applied to Boom Logistics, and the subsequent formidable rebound.

I reckon one way or another there is a great chance to milk a strong price movement on Thursday if you have quick fingers.  I'll be earning an honest day's living elsewhere.


----------



## michael_selway (17 February 2007)

rederob said:
			
		

> Magdoran
> Next week is Chinese new year and consumers will be away from the market.
> Any downside to zinc should be sooner rather than later.
> On the flip side zinc had its biggest warrant cancellation of the year, so outflow numbers may put off short players.
> ...




"On the flip side zinc had its biggest warrant cancellation of the year"

how many tonnes and where?

http://www.basemetals.com/stocks.aspx

thx

MS


----------



## Magdoran (17 February 2007)

rederob said:
			
		

> Magdoran
> Next week is Chinese new year and consumers will be away from the market.
> Any downside to zinc should be sooner rather than later.
> On the flip side zinc had its biggest warrant cancellation of the year, so outflow numbers may put off short players.
> ...



Thanks rederob,


And this is precisely why it’s an “Ace in the hole” to have a good FA person that knows their stuff on your T/A team.

Great, then this may have just been the top for this little drive up, and could see a pull back immediately as shown in the modified chart.

As for ZFX, you are quite right, the reaction to the earnings could do anything.

For the XAO I have 23-24 Feb as a key time point, and suspect we may see a top of some sort come in here.  It may be a major or a minor pull back if my cycle analysis holds true (XAO index target is 6025.31, or 6078.40 – in that order) or the next critical time I see is 01 April depending on how the market plays out.

Hence may see a rally into the 23 Feb.  How ZFX will behave is uncertain.  22 Feb is a key day in it’s cycle, which lines up exactly with the report oddly enough (I think this is a coincidence).

I can see the cycle working in ZFX, but can’t give a high probability short term direction yet.  The move down recently could be an “ABC” which is corrective, and not impulsive, meaning ZFX should move higher.

However, if zinc moves down, and the market makes a high on Friday, it would make sense that ZFX may follow the downward move in the short term as outlined by Nick Radge.  Another key day for ZFX appears to be 31 March…  I can see how zinc might move, but can’t really project for ZFX currently, and need to see how it pans out the next couple of weeks.

Long term, I tend to agree with you, we are still in a commodity bull cycle, and I suspect that the recent major high in Zinc was the end of a larger wave 3, hence the wave 5 in a commodity could be well above this level.  The problem is timing.  How long will the decline last, how long will the basing last, and how much momentum would a wave 5 have, and for how long?  Too early for me to forecast this currently – but I’m working on it. 

Thanks for the excellent FA analysis, much appreciated.


Regards


Magdoran


----------



## Nick Radge (17 February 2007)

machi,
You are quite right in that it's not a typical EW triangle. This is my point with Miner verse Prechter. The practical application of a triangles are these "micro" triangles. Very rarely do we see a completed EW triangle, but we see a tonne of these and from a practical trading application, that is all I require. Take a look at FUN as an example - long on Thursday into a wave-5. Whilst I bend the theory on what constitutes a specific triangle, I stay with the guideline that a triangle cannot be seen in a wave-2. I adapt the theory into what my own market experiences have taught me.

Here is my Zinc chart for what its worth. 






Regards


----------



## rederob (17 February 2007)

Magdoran
US market is closed Monday, and DOW/NYSE were flat last night.
Gold and silver were also flat, while base metals were mixed in thin trading and with minimal ranges - zinc was 2cents down - and oil was up.
My suspicion is that our allords will not be moving and shaking, especially as the bogey of 6000 was touched on Thursday, and a "breather' seems in place.
My reckoning is that these factors cannot produce much upside for our local equities on Monday/Tuesday, so immediate downside (perhaps just muted) is a high probability.

Nick
Try overlaying your e/w count of the allords over zinc/ZFX.
I would work off the countertrends for timing inflections.


----------



## Halba (17 February 2007)

hi rederob

i agree with your views on zinc. it looks to have slowed down remarkably, much like copper though not as bad as copper

stockpiles seem to have stabilised, and the drawdown rate is pathetic. This can change however.


----------



## michael_selway (17 February 2007)

Halba said:
			
		

> hi rederob
> 
> i agree with your views on zinc. it looks to have slowed down remarkably, much like copper though not as bad as copper
> 
> stockpiles seem to have stabilised, and the drawdown rate is pathetic. This can change however.




Hi about 400 was canclled on fri! its down to 86275!






thx

MS


----------



## machi (17 February 2007)

Nick Radge said:
			
		

> machi,
> You are quite right in that it's not a typical EW triangle. This is my point with Miner verse Prechter. The practical application of a triangles are these "micro" triangles. Very rarely do we see a completed EW triangle, but we see a tonne of these and from a practical trading application, that is all I require. Take a look at FUN as an example - long on Thursday into a wave-5. Whilst I bend the theory on what constitutes a specific triangle, I stay with the guideline that a triangle cannot be seen in a wave-2. I adapt the theory into what my own market experiences have taught me.
> 
> Here is my Zinc chart for what its worth.
> ...



Thanks for that explanation Nick, funny enough in my experience I have never come across  what yourself/Miner call "micro triangles". For example in the above chart of Zinc your wave 4 triangle wave d is higher than wave b. In studying Elliott’s works I have never come across situation. Usually the wave you have labelled d, I would label as b. this would make the triangle a rather "skewed" one than expected.  On occassion wave b of a triangle is exceeds wave 3 and that RN Elliott called a "running triangle" and means that the triangle will most likely terminate earlier than normal. 
I know what I am saying is quite trivial because the end result is the same,  a triangle wave 4 and then a wave 5 to follow.

What are these micro patterns you speak of?  Is it not easier to drop down to smaller time frames such as hourly charts and examine the EW micro trends there?

Incidentally I wonder how many people other than WP saw this last top in Zinc/ZFX?  Not many I bet.

KInd Regards

Machi


----------



## rederob (17 February 2007)

michael_selway said:
			
		

> Hi about 400 was canclled on fri! its down to 86275!
> thx
> 
> MS



MS
If "on warrant" zinc went from 90,550 to 86,275 the next day then I would regard the decline as a tad more than 400tonnes.
For your info, some 4,575 tonnes were cancelled overnight, 3,775 at Singapore.
Good luck with counting your fingers and toes!


----------



## michael_selway (17 February 2007)

rederob said:
			
		

> MS
> If "on warrant" zinc went from 90,550 to 86,275 the next day then I would regard the decline as a tad more than 400tonnes.
> For your info, some 4,575 tonnes were cancelled overnight, 3,775 at Singapore.
> Good luck with counting your fingers and toes!




hehe typo missed a "0"!

thx

MS


----------



## trendsta (19 February 2007)

ZFX price is moving up nicely...

I wonder if its because market is expecting larger dividend than forecast.. or if the chief is going to disclore positive info about divesting smelting operations.


----------



## mahmoodf (19 February 2007)

What is the forceast dividend expected to be?


----------



## michael_selway (19 February 2007)

mahmoodf said:
			
		

> What is the forceast dividend expected to be?




*EPS(c) PE Growth 
Year Ending 30-06-07 319.8 5.3 45.5% 
Year Ending 30-06-08 266.3 6.3 -16.7% 

Earnings and Dividends Forecast (cents per share) 
2006 2007 2008 2009 
EPS 219.9 319.8 266.3 182.5 
DPS 80.0 184.0 145.1 78.9 * 

thx

MS


----------



## GreatPig (19 February 2007)

Tomorrow could be interesting.

GP


----------



## rederob (19 February 2007)

michael_selway said:
			
		

> *EPS(c) PE Growth
> Year Ending 30-06-07 319.8 5.3 45.5%
> Year Ending 30-06-08 266.3 6.3 -16.7%
> 
> ...



MS
I really do appreciate your best efforts.
So how about something original, eh?


----------



## reece55 (19 February 2007)

GreatPig said:
			
		

> Tomorrow could be interesting.
> 
> GP




Certainly will Greatpig

I favour another move down - todays move up was a bit weak for my liking, low volume - the sellers are on holidays IMO. The fundamentals for the company are undeniable, but technically I see weakness..... With my limited EW knowledge, I have a similar count to that of Nick....... 

On the flip side, this stock is the monster of all dividend stripping opportunities..... and boy did the last time prove profitable......

Cheers


----------



## toothfairy (19 February 2007)

reece55 said:
			
		

> Certainly will Greatpig
> 
> I favour another move down - todays move up was a bit weak for my liking, low volume - the sellers are on holidays IMO. The fundamentals for the company are undeniable, but technically I see weakness..... With my limited EW knowledge, I have a similar count to that of Nick.......
> 
> ...



Hi Reece,
What holidays? Only University professors/students and Chinese are on holidays @ the moment.  
If the sellers are on holidays, the buyers could be on holidays as well!
Cheers


----------



## reece55 (19 February 2007)

Toothfairy
I meant symbolically mate, not literally........

There has been a lack of sellers that has caused the price to go up without the volume associated with a strong move....... 

Cheers


----------



## Artline (20 February 2007)

Hi GreatPig,

You're right. Tomorrow will be interesting.

Not knowing what the report will bring has kept me in long  ...  being greedy perhaps  ...   but I have the exact same trendlines on my chart and so would otherwise have quit my calls this arvo.

I'm going to be watching closely in the morning.   

Regards,   Art


----------



## Fab (20 February 2007)

Artline said:
			
		

> Hi GreatPig,
> 
> You're right. Tomorrow will be interesting.
> 
> ...



What's happening tomorrow ?


----------



## rederob (20 February 2007)

ZFX bid for Wolfden makes for interesting re-assessment of where the company is heading:
http://www.mining-journal.com/Breaking_News.aspx?breaking_news_article_id=1873


----------



## michael_selway (20 February 2007)

rederob said:
			
		

> ZFX bid for Wolfden makes for interesting re-assessment of where the company is heading:
> http://www.mining-journal.com/Breaking_News.aspx?breaking_news_article_id=1873




does it say what wolfden produces?

thx

MS


----------



## rwkni1 (20 February 2007)

They're an exploration company (copper, zinc, lead) up in the northern part of Canada. Teck Cominco have intersected some significant ore bodies up in that part of the world which remain undeveloped (in one presentation they noted that they had intersected a section of ore grading 65% zinc, so it would have to be diluted with rock to be made into concentrate - crazy).  This is also broadly where Red Dog, the largest zinc mine in the world, is located (ok, so Northern Canada is a big area, but you get the picture). At first glance looks like a good deal to me, will be interested to see what the market makes of it.  According to Bloomberg Wolfden;'s deposits could be worth 20b - i'm assuming this is in situ value not NPV.


----------



## toothfairy (20 February 2007)

reece55 said:
			
		

> Toothfairy
> I meant symbolically mate, not literally........
> 
> There has been a lack of sellers that has caused the price to go up without the volume associated with a strong move.......
> ...



Reece,
if there is a lack of sellers and they are not on REAL holidays that can only mean  that :
1 they are watching
2 they think price will go up so sell later
3 they know something that we don't
4 Or they are plain wrong
take your pick. I pick 3.
Cheers.


----------



## Artline (20 February 2007)

Hi Fab

In response to your question "What's happening tomorrow?", I was referring to the chart that GreatPig had posted.

It showed ZFX touching the trendline that I had been watching, and where I was planning on getting out of my long calls.

The only reason I was hanging back, was because of the compny report coming out on Thurs  ...  especially after missing out on the run up with BHP and RIO when the market responded well to their reports.

Looking at the price this morning, I'm rather pleased I'm still in      

Regards,   Art


----------



## Kauri (20 February 2007)

Have been trying out VSA/Wyckoff priciples with ZFX, has panned out quite well so far...


----------



## Kauri (20 February 2007)

Haven't updated the P+F for a couple of days but was also promising at time of entry...


----------



## BREND (20 February 2007)

*Re: ZINIFEX..ZFX*



			
				Fleeta said:
			
		

> Read a Huntleys report that said...
> 
> 'As an unhedged, integrated lead-zinc producer, ZFX's volatile fortunes are tied to the A$ zinc and lead prices.'
> 
> ...




Zinc and lead price should continue to rise.


----------



## michael_selway (20 February 2007)

*Re: ZINIFEX..ZFX*



			
				BREND said:
			
		

> Zinc and lead price should continue to rise.




Rise slowly is ideal, so in order to let LME supplies drop first

thx

MS


----------



## BREND (20 February 2007)

*Re: ZINIFEX..ZFX*



			
				michael_selway said:
			
		

> Rise slowly is ideal, so in order to let LME supplies drop first
> 
> thx
> 
> MS




Zinc demand in China has picked up. Currently zinc price in China is higher compared to LME, so a lot of China merchant will draw zinc out from LME warehouses. Hence inventory will continue to fall in the short term.

As for lead, inventory has been falling for month, almost at an continuous basis. And also same issue for zinc, currently lead price in China is higher compared to the price at LME.


----------



## rwkni1 (20 February 2007)

*Re: ZINIFEX..ZFX*



			
				BREND said:
			
		

> Zinc demand in China has picked up. Currently zinc price in China is higher compared to LME, so a lot of China merchant will draw zinc out from LME warehouses. Hence inventory will continue to fall in the short term.
> 
> As for lead, inventory has been falling for month, almost at an continuous basis. And also same issue for zinc, currently lead price in China is higher compared to the price at LME.




Is there a public resource you use to get the zinc price in China?


----------



## BREND (20 February 2007)

*Re: ZINIFEX..ZFX*



			
				rwkni1 said:
			
		

> Is there a public resource you use to get the zinc price in China?




I dont have.


----------



## toothfairy (20 February 2007)

I am glad that more people agree with my thinking that ZFX sp is more related to POZ and gossips than charts.
Cheers, its up today


----------



## reece55 (20 February 2007)

Well, todays strength was something I didn't expect......

Looks like we may be out of the downtrending band it has been in of late.......

Kauri, thanks for your take on the charts here........ good stuff......

I actually traded long in ZFX a couple of days ago for a swing trade from 15.70 to about 16.50 via a warrant, but I thought we would see it bounce back down to say 15.00 or below before heading back up.... Looks like I might have missed the boat....

Best of luck to all holders here and all you zinc bulls!

Cheers


----------



## Halba (20 February 2007)

zfx paid too much for the acquisition imho, they could easily pay for Terramin or Tennant creek, cheap as chips


----------



## barney (20 February 2007)

Again, I may be out of my depth here, but I still see ZFX in the balance ......... I think it will test the low $18 mark , (now resistance .... ex- support level) ( I was wrong about the low $17 ish, but the chart is very "each way" atm),  but if it fails to rise above and consolidate, I see that as a confirmation of the short term trend change in early January  (emphasise "short term") .... back to $16.50, and if the market in general takes a dive (which looks on the cards) high $15 ish looks feasible,  .............. of course I may have no idea and could just be talking jibberish   .............. 

PS my motivation for attempting to "read" ZFX is due to losing money on them a couple of months back when I should have been making it .... therefore any new punters please disregard my comments, and concentrate on the more learned chaps around here (certainly would not want anyone following my advice ............yet   ) ........ Good luck to holders


----------



## Nick Radge (21 February 2007)

Reece,
My count remains valid. If my analysis is correct ("if" being the key word) then we're still tracing out wave-b of a secondary corrective pattern. Rather than have an "expecatation" of what the future may hold, have probabilities for what pattern could unfold. Remember that EW is not about the "only" count, but the most probable count. Therefore, I see the following as the most probable and as they appear more likely then we can place a trade accordingly:

(1)
A failure before we see the Jan 24 high broken would suggest the Feb 9 lows will be breached, albeit by a small margin. That would take prices into the typical wave-(4) corrective zone and possibly act as a retest of the major support set back on May 5 last year. So long as we see volume support the move, a buying opportunity will occur. 

(2)
A break above the Jan 24 highs would suggest a running flat, in which case the subsequent decline will more than likely termiante at the same level as the Feb 9 lows. In other words, we've more than likely seen the worst - assuming the Jan 24 highs are broken. If we do get that decline back to the Feb 9 lows and we see some volume support then a long trade is likely.

(3)
A break to new highs. Well this is more than likely the sign that the correction was completed at the Feb 9 lows and the corrective count outlined in prior posts was incorrect. An opportunity lost, yes, but we could then continue to look to take part in the wave-(5) higher.

I am neither long or short and will not initiate any positions until the pattern has completed.

Nick

_This post may contain advice that has been prepared by Reef Capital Coaching ABN 24 092 309 978 (“RCC”) and is general advice and does not take account of your objectives, financial situation or needs. Before acting on this general advice you should therefore consider the appropriateness of the advice having regard to your situation. We recommend you obtain financial, legal and taxation advice before making any financial investment decision.

Past performance is not a reliable indication of future performance. This material has been prepared based on information believed to be accurate at the time of publication. Subsequent changes in circumstances may occur at any time and may impact the accuracy of the information._


----------



## rwkni1 (21 February 2007)

Halba said:
			
		

> zfx paid too much for the acquisition imho, they could easily pay for Terramin or Tennant creek, cheap as chips




But they already have a JV with Terramin, and Wolfden's projects are a pre-feasibility stage with significant JORC resources and reserves. Terramin doesn't even have a JORC resource yet, let alone getting to reserve status.


----------



## Halba (21 February 2007)

but paying an extra $200M CAD just a bit silly to get it up to JORC? We know the resources are there in Algeria. 

And also $700M capex CAD, because its in the frikkin arctic circle! Ice roads have to be built!!

I think ZFX just wasted shareholders money here.


----------



## rwkni1 (21 February 2007)

Halba said:
			
		

> but paying an extra $200M CAD just a bit silly to get it up to JORC? We know the resources are there in Algeria.
> 
> And also $700M capex CAD, because its in the frikkin arctic circle! Ice roads have to be built!!
> 
> I think ZFX just wasted shareholders money here.




I don't think its silly at all.
Both Wolfden's projects are at pre-feasibility stage, Terramin are a couple of years away from getting to the same point, provided the drilling confirms what they think. Wolfden's assets have super low cash costs because of the massive copper by-product which hits the bottom line - High Lake is expected to have cash costs of 2c/lb of zinc, that would have to make it just about the cheapest operating zinc mine in the world. Lets not forget the sovereign risk of Canada vs. Algeria. Also, I don't think C$700m capex is outrageous at all for two projects that will add 230kt super low cost zinc production per anum. If you look at Wolfden's most recent presentation, the NPV calcs on the projects are very robust even with zinc at 60c/lb.


----------



## peterthomas (22 February 2007)

Nice mid year report  

Highlights

· Excellent net profit after tax of $751.2 million, more than three times the net profit of the same period last year

· Cash balance rose to $834.2 million more than 250% higher than at 31 December 2005

· Record zinc and lead prices driven by falling global stocks was the major driver of the increased profit

· Total production fell by 10% due largely to longer than normal planned shutdowns at Century and Port Pirie as well as lower lead grades in ore at Century

· Substantially increased dividend of 70 cents per share announced, seven times the dividend for the same period last year

· Safety and environmental performance improves continuing the trend of recent years

· Significant progress made on Zinifex’s long term strategy including:
- Announcement of intention to combine Zinifex and Umicore’s respective smelting and alloying businesses to create the
world’s pre-eminent zinc metal producer
- Successfully completed the Dugald River pre-feasibility study and elected to proceed with a full feasibility study of a
200,000 tonne per annum zinc mine
- Exploration budget doubled to $90 million over the next three years
- Included in the exploration budget is a commitment to spend a further $19 million over three years drilling the Rosebery
mine lease to extend the resource
- Drilling identified a new mineralised zone at Rosebery mine
- Exploration expanded overseas with projects in Tunisia, Sweden and Mexico
- Announced a non-binding and conditional proposal to acquire all the outstanding common shares in a listed Canadian
based mineral exploration and development company Wolfden Resources Inc. ("Wolfden") for C$3.90 cash per
share, valuing Wolfden at approximately C$358 million

Glad im in a buywrite for this one


----------



## silence (22 February 2007)

The market doesn't seem overly impressed, however.


Also, I thought the dividend was expected to be a fair bit higher? Not sure where I read that though.


----------



## Kauri (22 February 2007)

silence said:
			
		

> The market doesn't seem overly impressed, however.
> 
> 
> Also, I thought the dividend was expected to be a fair bit higher? Not sure where I read that though.




  Maybe the last 10 days or so was the reaction to the expected report, today and yesterday is selling into the official news????


----------



## chops_a_must (22 February 2007)

Kauri said:
			
		

> Maybe the last 10 days or so was the reaction to the expected report, today and yesterday is selling into the official news????



Yeah. Both the ZFX and the OXR reports were both rather underwhelming.


----------



## rwkni1 (22 February 2007)

silence said:
			
		

> The market doesn't seem overly impressed, however.
> 
> 
> Also, I thought the dividend was expected to be a fair bit higher? Not sure where I read that though.




Consensus divvy was 80c, came in at 70c. But, take into account the bid for Wolfden which will use some cash. Earnings beat broker consensus by about 20m, pretty solid.


----------



## eMark (22 February 2007)

Well that was an anti climax. Not the result or dividend itself, but the markets reaction? Any thoughts why? Any analysis re ZFX's current wave? The Zinc price was good last night etc, but the money seems to be with the banks today regardless.


----------



## Kauri (22 February 2007)

My short-term trade looks likely to be stopped out.... might drop to the W2 area and turn up into a W3, alternatively it may also drop through the W2 area in which case a more complex W(4) is still forming. And quite possibly am wrong on both counts..     will wait and let the market tell me what it wants to do.


----------



## trendsta (22 February 2007)

Beats me... 

It was running hot at around 17.70 then dropped to 16.90 by end of day??


----------



## toothfairy (22 February 2007)

Definitely only good for short term trade, follow the trend and don't form any opinions. Definitely don't fall in love.
That's my thought.


----------



## rederob (22 February 2007)

toothfairy said:
			
		

> Definitely only good for short term trade, follow the trend and don't form any opinions. Definitely don't fall in love.
> That's my thought.



Spot zinc price up 6 cents so far tonight.
I think I'm in lerv, again  :1luvu:


----------



## eMark (23 February 2007)

rederob said:
			
		

> Spot zinc price up 6 cents so far tonight.
> I think I'm in lerv, again  :1luvu:




...and this is despite a 'hefty' rise in inventories overnight

London Metal Exchange Warehouse Stocks 
February 22
Metal Tonnes in Storage Change from previous day 
Zinc 99825 +3225

------------------------------

Zinc February 22,08:05 
Bid/Ask 1.5877 - 1.5968 
Change +0.0805  +5.34% 
Low/High 1.4936 - 1.5968

Must be some speculation on after Chinese New Year buying...

This could be what the ZFX share price is looking for....


----------



## Kauri (23 February 2007)

From The Age... explains yesterdays falls, will the overnight zinc rally overcome this negativity today??



> Zinifex admits to pressure on profits
> Barry FitzGerald
> February 23, 2007
> 
> ...


----------



## Magdoran (23 February 2007)

Latest Update to the Zinc musings chart...


----------



## Kauri (23 February 2007)

Kauri said:
			
		

> From The Age... explains yesterdays falls, will the overnight zinc rally overcome this negativity today??




   Looks like someone is taking this opportunity to lighten their load a tad. Negativity overcomes rally???


----------



## rico01 (23 February 2007)

Some research by citigroup

Strong Result
Great Result - NPAT of A$751m was slightly ahead of our A$745m estimate, but well ahead of ~A$700m consensus. Slightly lower than expected A70 ¢ dividend was not surprising given proposed bid for Wolfden Resources (WLF.TO - C$3.90; Not Rated) and certainty not limited by the A$834m in cash. We maintain our Buy recommendation and A$20 target price driven by zinc price leverage, smelter spin-off and exploration upside. 
Estimates Unchanged, but at Risk - Our estimates remain unchanged, but there is downside risk of 8% in FY07 and 35% in FY08 given our expected recovery in zinc prices to US$2/lb as China returns to being a net importer after a tax driven export surge in late-2006. Zinifex expect a small zinc market deficit in 2007 before a modest surplus in 2008. 

Wolfden Bid - Proposed $A390m Wolfden Resources bid is a premium to the indicative NPV we derive for the assets of A$250-300m, but value gap could easily be breached by increase in resources and/or assumption of higher long-term prices. Key risk is the capex cost pressure endemic in the industry, especially given location. As part of a multi pronged assault to address relatively short mine-life the acquisition stacks up, and increases diversification by adding more copper. 

Smelter Spin-off - Due diligence has been completed by both parties and a binding agreement should be signed by late-March/earl-April. We derive a post de-merger target price of A$24-34/share for Zinifex based on what multiples the peer group for the respective mining and smelting entities trade on. 


Don,t forget to make up yur own opinion
Cheers All!!!


----------



## toothfairy (24 February 2007)

rederob said:
			
		

> Spot zinc price up 6 cents so far tonight.
> I think I'm in lerv, again  :1luvu:



Hi Rederob,
Oh! It's so wicked this woman, I keeeep falling in and out of lerv about a hundred times already. But still attached.  
Have fun, don't be too serious, it's only $.


----------



## Magdoran (27 February 2007)

Zinc may be about to turn here.  Working on ZFX itself, but think if Zinc does pull back, so will ZFX in line with Zinc.

The 28th Feb +/- one trading day will be a significant time point, and if we get a high here, should see a continuation of the bear drive along the concept in the chart.  

It is conceivable that there is a retest of the high around 12 March, or could see a low here.  This is a key increment, and will help to verify the scenario outlined in the existing chart.


----------



## Slipstream (27 February 2007)

Magdoran,

There's nothing like having a bet each way!


----------



## Magdoran (27 February 2007)

Slipstream said:
			
		

> Magdoran,
> 
> There's nothing like having a bet each way!



Slipstream,


Did you know that this chart is one in a series that have documented Zinc's campaign (and only recently changed over to this 2007 thread now to continue the analysis)?

How exactly is this having a bet each way?  I’ve outlined clearly the whole campaign till the 23 May and what I think Zinc will do, and when.  The ambiguity for the 12 May is that in this form of analysis I don’t know whether it will be a high or a low into this date.  I just know that this date will form either support or resistance in time depending on how the price action plays out from the 28th.  Please, tell me if you can do better than this, I’m all ears.

I think you have missed the point of this method of technical analysis completely.  It is time based, hence the time points are a critical element in the process. The tolerance is for +/- 1 trading day. There is also wave structure, and there is support and resistance in price incorporated too.

The actual price action is unlikely to exactly follow all the time and price points since the time points in this case are dominant, not the price.  However, I’m having my best shot guess as to what price will come up and when, and what the broad wave structure may look like.

How Zinc actually trades into key time and price points, and the way the wave structure pans out will either validate or invalidate the current forecast, and consequently highlight areas that need to be adjusted.

The adjustments which may need to be made are addressed in the post based on the order of probabilities.  I can only work in probabilities; this isn’t a crystal ball, but a forecast/projection into the future.  With all due respect, Slipstream, Zinc has pretty much followed the forecast I initially posted before I posted the first chart, in line with the time points.  What more do you want?

From a trading perspective this approach will highlight entry signals for shorting ZFX near the right time if the right pattern emerges validating the Zinc campaign I have outlined here.

The key target is for Zinc to hit 2744.51 on April 17, if this campaign plays out the way I have forecast it.  How I currently think it will trade there is outlined on the chart.  I have clearly indicated where the uptrend may recommence if the April 17 low works around 05 May, and that if the downtrend continues, that Zinc could in a capitulation hit 2291.31 on 23 May.


Now, please post up your chart with time price and path for comparison with exact dates and prices.  I’m looking forward to learning something from you to improve on this forecast.


Regards


Magdoran

P.S. I'm essentially saying this baby is blowing off from the 28th Feb down into 17 April if the 28th is a high (+/- 1 trading day).


----------



## Freeballinginawetsuit (27 February 2007)

Magdoran said:
			
		

> Slipstream,
> 
> 
> Did you know that this chart is one in a series that have documented Zinc's campaign (and only recently changed over to this 2007 thread now to continue the analysis)?
> ...




I haven't noticed any of your charts on the relevant value Zinc Stocks or Zinc commodity thread through 06............albeit youre recent musings since Zinc's fall through support after Xmas and subsequent pullback.


As time has proved> what was quite a simple scenario has panned out with decent gains on the relevant stocks achievable by the punters. Youre opinions past tense were a each way bet and non commital at best on the direction of Zinc spot at the time  .

I personally like youre specific dates>tommorows Dday for Zinc isn't it  .....but not to worry youre bet is each way!.


----------



## Magdoran (27 February 2007)

Freeballinginawetsuit said:
			
		

> I haven't noticed any of your charts on the relevant value Zinc Stocks or Zinc commodity thread through 06............albeit youre recent musings since Zinc's fall through support after Xmas and subsequent pullback.
> 
> 
> As time has proved> what was quite a simple scenario has panned out with decent gains on the relevant stocks achievable by the punters. Youre opinions past tense were a each way bet and non commital at best on the direction of Zinc spot at the time  .
> ...



Freeball,

I’m going to demonstrate post this sentence just how much attention you deserve:


----------



## Freeballinginawetsuit (27 February 2007)

Really!........  , I'm just stating a clear view on your wish wash


----------



## doctorj (27 February 2007)

Mags & Freeball, you both have stated your opinions - now lets get back to Zinifex and leave this here please.

Thanks,
ASF


----------



## Kauri (28 February 2007)

Interesting times....2 or (C) ??...  Or a nested 1-2, 1-2,1-2...?


----------



## wavepicker (28 February 2007)

Kauri said:
			
		

> Interesting times....2 or (C) ??




Did mention a 1-2,1-2,1-2 nesting pattern some time ago


----------



## Kauri (28 February 2007)

wavepicker said:
			
		

> Did mention a 1-2,1-2,1-2 nesting pattern some time ago




    Sorry, have ammended my post accordingly..


----------



## wavepicker (28 February 2007)

Kauri said:
			
		

> Sorry, have ammended my post accordingly..




Hey Kauri, no need to apologize, you have done nothing wrong. Just added a probable pattern on top of yours and others back then. It was rallying quite hard then so it was difficult.
BTW I did not take the short trade. Damn should have though!!

Cheers


----------



## Magdoran (5 March 2007)

Here’s my current musings on Zinc.

I have had to make a few adjustments to the original count, and have had to recalibrate the time points since the market has now finally revealed enough for me to get a good lock on the cycle.

Note the new dates, but the price levels currently will stay the same for the present.  These may need to be adjusted the closer we get to key time increments.

Here’s my “each way bet” as the peons would say – this baby is going down.  

Just let me underline that so everyone can see that I’m unequivocal in what I think is the highest probability.  Hence, I’m not going to give my usual heads up on any failure criteria which would invalidate the pattern.  I know what it is, but because of the peons, I’ve decided to just limit my comment to the highest probabilities and leave it at that so there is no ambiguity as to what I think is most likely to happen, and just be right or wrong period. 

I expect it to chop around with a kind of nesting pattern, then complete the bearish leg down as shown.  Post this cycle, it could continue down or reverse the trend.  Until this bearish campaign plays out in the weekly chart, I cannot make a high probability forecast (that doesn’t mean I haven’t put the work in and have worked out scenarios, I’m just not going to share these – courtesy of the peon brigade).

Regards


Magdoran


----------



## Kauri (5 March 2007)

Hi Magdoran,
                    Maybe there isn't that much difference in Prechter and Miner after all, just the method of getting there? Your ammended zinc chart now pretty much aligns with Nicks chart posted on the 17th of Feb..


----------



## Magdoran (5 March 2007)

Kauri said:
			
		

> Hi Magdoran,
> Maybe there isn't that much difference in Prechter and Miner after all, just the method of getting there? Your ammended zinc chart now pretty much aligns with Nicks chart posted on the 17th of Feb..



Hello Kauri,


Indeed, and you’d expect this at the basic level, the points of divergence in schools is not on fundamental principles, it is more to do with the minutia and precision, that’s all.

I have never claimed to be an expert EW player; wavepicker is way ahead of me in this field.  Like I said in previous posts, give me another 5 years to move from intermediate to something better.  But the points of difference is that WP and I look at ending diagonal patterns and nesting patterns in great detail.  This is an art.  Same with irregular tops for example.  Using a time cycle approach helps to clarify the pattern and count – hence hybrid styles can gain an edge in some cases....  Food for thought?

I suppose I see it as being a kind of Sherlock Holmes and evaluating the clues, isn’t it?  In the broader field all the good EW players will line up on the core knowledge because it works.

As for Miner, there’s over 500 pages of stuff to wade through. I’ve skimmed it all and noted the key points, but boy there is a lot in his work.  It’s going to take some time to work though this to really evaluate it and extract the wisdom from it.

It’s fun, isn’t it Kauri!


Warm Regards


Magdoran


----------



## Nick Radge (5 March 2007)

The ZFX count in post #1400 remains intact.

The Zinc chart has completed a 5-wave up to wave-a set on Feb 26. We should now see weakness into wave-b. This weakness *MUST* hold the Feb 2 lows. If it does hold then Zinc will push toward 4000, maybe a little higher, to complete wave-c and the larger degree wave-B or -2. 

This last move higher in Zinc will be enough to see ZFX complete its wave-(5) before the larger bearish trend sets in.

So as not to be scorned:

*Zinc:* the lows of Feb 2 must hold.
*ZFX: * I think it a high risk trade to the long side into that wave-(5), although under the correct "trading" circumstances it may be viable. See post #1400.




_This post may contain advice that has been prepared by Reef Capital Coaching ABN 24 092 309 978 (“RCC”) and is general advice and does not take account of your objectives, financial situation or needs. Before acting on this general advice you should therefore consider the appropriateness of the advice having regard to your situation. We recommend you obtain financial, legal and taxation advice before making any financial investment decision.

Past performance is not a reliable indication of future performance. This material has been prepared based on information believed to be accurate at the time of publication. Subsequent changes in circumstances may occur at any time and may impact the accuracy of the information_


----------



## Halba (6 March 2007)

Cmon man whats the p/e of zinni-fex now? Mkt seriously wearing me thin


----------



## Out Too Soon (6 March 2007)

I imagine it's just a blip on the way down to oblivion but ZFX, BSG, OXR, GBG & a whole heap more- correction all ordinaries show green arrows with point on top. 
I've already made the mistake of jumping in too soon last thursday. 
Comments?


----------



## silence (6 March 2007)

The whole market seems a bit too positive at the moment. I would have thought people might 'ease back in' a bit more..not leap back in.


----------



## Out Too Soon (6 March 2007)

silence said:
			
		

> The whole market seems a bit too positive at the moment. I would have thought people might 'ease back in' a bit more..not leap back in.



I dont think Mr Market understands! He has a switch that can flip flop, BEAR/BULL/BEAR/BULL   

I think it's a sus bounce to, I've made a couple of small purchases today but the DOW etc will decide if they're long term or short term investments.


----------



## pacer (6 March 2007)

I jumped in 5 mins before close yesterday for 3000 and sold 7mins before close today....recon this isn't the last of it so I bailed with enough to go on holiday for a week or two....

My small caps are holding up well and seem to fall overnight them come back by the end of the day creating some great buying oportunities.

Caution over the next few weeks is all that's necesary.


----------



## Halba (6 March 2007)

Any comment on the recent(24hrs) strengthening of zinc price? In my opinion this share has rebounded once again from $15's regions. Anyone going to take a possie on the up, and try to ride it back to $18?


----------



## mmmmining (6 March 2007)

For Zinc lover, here is an article:

http://www.mineweb.net/whats_new/655167.htm


----------



## UraniumLover (6 March 2007)

Halba said:
			
		

> Any comment on the recent(24hrs) strengthening of zinc price? In my opinion this share has rebounded once again from $15's regions. Anyone going to take a possie on the up, and try to ride it back to $18?




Good call HAlba. The 70 cent dividend 30 March is too good to pass. It's like a carrot in front of me. When you consider Zinc stocks in LME have been declining last 2 weeks sharply it is hard not to ride this one , take the dividends , go to  18 and laugh all the way to the bank.


----------



## barney (8 March 2007)

pacer said:
			
		

> I jumped in 5 mins before close yesterday for 3000 and sold 7mins before close today....recon this isn't the last of it so I bailed with enough to go on holiday for a week or two....
> 
> My small caps are holding up well and seem to fall overnight them come back by the end of the day creating some great buying oportunities.
> 
> Caution over the next few weeks is all that's necesary.




Well done Paceman, your timing is good as always (sure your'e not a muso??)

ZFX is taking a bit of a punishment today, as many in this thread have predicted earlier ............ will be interesting to see how it finishes off the day, and how the market reacts on open tomorrow .............. any of you more learned lads like to put some TA on the current situation ........... Currently trying to tread water at mid 16.20's , but looking precarious if the sellers jump back in after lunch ??............. (the volume is only moderate at this stage so maybe a few getting out "just in case" )


----------



## Halba (8 March 2007)

punishment unrelated to zinc - apparently some explosion at port pirie left a worker seriously injured..however not mkt sensitive.

The explosion occured this morning and is not expected to have a material impact


----------



## barney (8 March 2007)

Halba said:
			
		

> punishment unrelated to zinc - apparently some explosion at port pirie left a worker seriously injured..however not mkt sensitive.
> 
> The explosion occured this morning and is not expected to have a material impact




Howdy Halba, I guess with the market being a bit "nervous" atm, even a non market sensitive issue could entice some to jump ship ........... then again, who knows what makes the market react how it does at times   Cheers.


----------



## pacer (8 March 2007)

I don't believe the correction is over.

I will be looking for more opportunities below $16, preferably below $15.80, dont ask me why I think it will go down there you'll just laugh at me and my tealeaves and bone throwing antics....baisicaly DYOR.

WPL could be the next play for me even though there's ageneral down trend, it's so damn cheap ATM.

Barney...hows it going...made back that loss yet?....wish you good luck mate...enjoy.


----------



## misterS (8 March 2007)

Someone made the observation in another thread that good dividend stocks become even more attractive for fund managers who have suffered under the market decline - this should make the 70c in April generate a bit more upward pressure on ZFX than otherwise.


----------



## Out Too Soon (9 March 2007)

misterS said:
			
		

> Someone made the observation in another thread that good dividend stocks become even more attractive for fund managers who have suffered under the market decline - this should make the 70c in April generate a bit more upward pressure on ZFX than otherwise.




Doesn't seem to be happening at the moment, ZFX is standing still while most of the ASX50 is up. Not WPL tho' hope you havn't jumped on that yet Pacer, be ready tho' I think it's cheap too. (BSG's even better    )
If ZFX drops again I'll cert be buying more, what I'm holding is way in the red atm.


----------



## Halba (9 March 2007)

Hi out too soon. Going down because of the port pirie explosion damaged sentiment. If it didn't have that would be fine.


----------



## Julia (9 March 2007)

Halba said:
			
		

> Hi out too soon. Going down because of the port pirie explosion damaged sentiment. If it didn't have that would be fine.



Are you sure?  What about the drop in the zinc price?

Julia


----------



## eMark (10 March 2007)

misterS said:
			
		

> Someone made the observation in another thread that good dividend stocks become even more attractive for fund managers who have suffered under the market decline - this should make the 70c in April generate a bit more upward pressure on ZFX than otherwise.




I don't know. I believe ZFX will trade sideways for a couple of weeks. It will certainly be down again on Monday due to a 3% drop in the Zinc price. It will probably wake up agin in the last 7-10 days pre the ex-dividend date (April 5)? But where to...??? I can see a low of mid $15's again soon, but where will it be just before ex dividend? Interesting....


----------



## eMark (10 March 2007)

Out Too Soon said:
			
		

> If ZFX drops again I'll cert be buying more, what I'm holding is way in the red atm.




If it makes you feel any better, I was all ready to sell ZFX, the day before the correction (would have paid off a recent loss or two), plus given me a nice profit. But instead I held.........Also bought back in just before ZFX dipped again last week (fairly large parcel) I just can't take a trick with this stock of late. VERY DIFFICULT TO READ!


----------



## Halba (10 March 2007)

Difficult to read short term.

Perhaps you will be right in 6-9months+


Smelter spin off too in August-September 2007.


----------



## UraniumLover (11 March 2007)

eMark said:
			
		

> I don't know. I believe ZFX will trade sideways for a couple of weeks. It will certainly be down again on Monday due to a 3% drop in the Zinc price. It will probably wake up agin in the last 7-10 days pre the ex-dividend date (April 5)? But where to...??? I can see a low of mid $15's again soon, but where will it be just before ex dividend? Interesting....




well i hammered my dividend capture on this slightly. Ws going well until that explosion occured sending it downwards 2 % the next day. I believe this is a minor downward swing to probably 15.50  if all ords decline and 16.00 if all ords stays good or even upward move if all ords continues uptrend. over next week or so.
LME zinc stocks haven fallen 10000 tonnes last month indicating the Chinese have used up alot of there zinc stock pile inventories from manufacturing. THey are back in the market now to buy big while zinc prices are only 1.50 , from 2.00. THis will only cause zinc price to go up from 1.50 - 2.00 or higher and zfx price should go up wih this. I may have to extend the time of the trade to counter act any short comings in profit or probably sell half and buy back in closer to dividend date


----------



## Halba (11 March 2007)

why not just hold and let it take care of itself?


----------



## UraniumLover (11 March 2007)

Halba said:
			
		

> why not just hold and let it take care of itself?



Haliba, never said there wasn't anything wrong with that either.
i believe fundamentals will take it through to at least $18 initially considering  some fund managers have a target price of 19.50 on it.


----------



## CanOz (11 March 2007)

UraniumLover said:
			
		

> Haliba, never said there wasn't anything wrong with that either.
> i believe fundamentals will take it through to at least $18 initially considering  some fund managers have a target price of 19.50 on it.




Saturday AFR actually had the price target at 9.50!  : I think they made a typo!

Cheers,


----------



## eMark (11 March 2007)

CanOz said:
			
		

> Saturday AFR actually had the price target at 9.50!  : I think they made a typo!
> 
> Cheers,




9.50?? ok, now I'm officialy stuffed


----------



## CanOz (11 March 2007)

eMark said:
			
		

> 9.50?? ok, now I'm officialy stuffed




My apologies, its actually Friday's AFR, page 33 under "MIR shows confidence in zinc plays"

"He rates Zinifex a "buy" and has a $9.18 share price target"

Cheers,


----------



## UraniumLover (11 March 2007)

CanOz said:
			
		

> My apologies, its actually Friday's AFR, page 33 under "MIR shows confidence in zinc plays"
> 
> "He rates Zinifex a "buy" and has a $9.18 share price target"
> 
> Cheers,



19.50 target sell price


----------



## Halba (11 March 2007)

Oh dear 9.18. Thats woeful. Its EPS for this yr is around $3.80-$4, so how can it be 9.18?


----------



## ric371 (11 March 2007)

Looking at The inside trader smart money charts, it has a falling buyer seller volume and a falling buyer seller ratio, looks to me that it will test the low 15s in the short term. but under 10 is a real long shot. unless there is another disaster we dont know about yet.


----------



## CanOz (11 March 2007)

ric371 said:
			
		

> Looking at The inside trader smart money charts, it has a falling buyer seller volume and a falling buyer seller ratio, looks to me that it will test the low 15s in the short term. but under 10 is a real long shot. unless there is another disaster we dont know about yet.




That was a typo folks, trust me!

Cheers,


----------



## misterS (11 March 2007)

I suppose MIR has the confidence to put its money where its mouth is by buying $226m ZXF, but it may simply be the confidence that they will reap $17.5m return (franked) (excuse me if my maths failed me there, but whatever it is, it is something huge) and calculate (risk) they will not suffer an equivalent or greater sp fall at the point when they quit their position. 

At current sp there is a reasonable expectation that it may be higher for at least some periods in the months following the divvie, esp with smelter spin-off and maybe other exploration / take-over developments. I know the zinc price is a risk, but the money is pouring in right now and will keep doing so at lower prices, short of a serious zinc crash (not just the failure to sustain a price near the deficit-driven record high of 2006).  

Relative to production cost, the zinc price would continue to deliver a lot of gravy while ZFX positions itself for longer-term viability, which it seems to be doing pretty well so far, at least steps in the right direction.  

Kinda makes me wish I had a lazy $226m myself....


----------



## UraniumLover (12 March 2007)

misterS said:
			
		

> I suppose MIR has the confidence to put its money where its mouth is by buying $226m ZXF, but it may simply be the confidence that they will reap $17.5m return (franked) (excuse me if my maths failed me there, but whatever it is, it is something huge) and calculate (risk) they will not suffer an equivalent or greater sp fall at the point when they quit their position.
> 
> At current sp there is a reasonable expectation that it may be higher for at least some periods in the months following the divvie, esp with smelter spin-off and maybe other exploration / take-over developments. I know the zinc price is a risk, but the money is pouring in right now and will keep doing so at lower prices, short of a serious zinc crash (not just the failure to sustain a price near the deficit-driven record high of 2006).
> 
> ...




well i wouldn't put 226 m on it but this would be based on long term zinc fundamentals. we all know there isn't enough of it with a defecit in supply for 2007 at least. signs of this are starting to show LME.
 ZFX went up today while other zinc miners kzl, pem going down with the slight fall zinc price. i have faith in this share so will hold and claim my bonus dividend . Don't know any other share that's pay's such a good dividend .if anybody knows let me know


----------



## chops_a_must (12 March 2007)

UraniumLover said:
			
		

> Don't know any other share that's pay's such a good dividend .if anybody knows let me know



MRE.


----------



## Julia (12 March 2007)

chops_a_must said:
			
		

> MRE.



And if you take 30 seconds to read through the share tables in your daily paper, Uranium lover, you will see dozens of companies paying similar and higher dividends.

Julia


----------



## toothfairy (14 March 2007)

Hi,

so quiet here lately, can we have some discussion whether this is the time to buy, sell or do nothing with this stock. It is into the $15s now.

Cheers.


----------



## CanOz (14 March 2007)

toothfairy said:
			
		

> Hi,
> 
> so quiet here lately, can we have some discussion whether this is the time to buy, sell or do nothing with this stock. It is into the $15s now.
> 
> Cheers.




I bailed out this morning after tightening the stop.

Cheers,


----------



## barney (14 March 2007)

toothfairy said:
			
		

> Hi,
> 
> so quiet here lately, can we have some discussion whether this is the time to buy, sell or do nothing with this stock. It is into the $15s now.
> 
> Cheers.




Hi Tooth, There has been a bit of interest on the "Improving Chart analysis" thread re ZFX .......... might be worth a look..... Cheers.


----------



## Freeballinginawetsuit (14 March 2007)

Julia said:
			
		

> And if you take 30 seconds to read through the share tables in your daily paper, Uranium lover, you will see dozens of companies paying similar and higher dividends.
> 
> Julia





Dozens of Companies?, I'm certainly interested in which ones those are Julia!.

In the case of both MRE & ZFX their MC's appreciated near on 300% in 06 and the dividend returns from a punters entry at the start of 06, represent a 30% odd return on the initial entry.


----------



## eMark (14 March 2007)

London Metal Exchange Warehouse Stocks 
( March 14 ) 
Metal Tonnes in Storage Change from
previous day 
Aluminum 797925 -350  
Copper 197750 -1975  
Nickel 3816 -60  
Lead 31250 +350  
*Zinc 95750 +1625*

Zinc inventory rising for 3rd day straight, just at the right time for ZFX


----------



## toothfairy (14 March 2007)

barney said:
			
		

> Hi Tooth, There has been a bit of interest on the "Improving Chart analysis" thread re ZFX .......... might be worth a look..... Cheers.



Thanks Barney,
I had a good look at the other site and I think I will wait and watch ZFX atm instead of jumping back in. Your descending triangle looks very convincing.
I sold 80% of ZFX and am looking @ oppotunities to buy back, I think I will take a punt to buy back some if it drop to the $15 support line. 
Say if it downwardly break through $15, how much lower will it go? Would it be in a bear trend then?
Cheers.


----------



## Warren Buffet II (15 March 2007)

toothfairy said:
			
		

> Thanks Barney,
> I had a good look at the other site and I think I will wait and watch ZFX atm instead of jumping back in. Your descending triangle looks very convincing.
> I sold 80% of ZFX and am looking @ oppotunities to buy back, I think I will take a punt to buy back some if it drop to the $15 support line.
> Say if it downwardly break through $15, how much lower will it go? Would it be in a bear trend then?
> Cheers.




Well, I do not think that graphs represent the right situation for ZFX ATM. There is the fact that ZFX is running as CD and after the 30/03 will drop around 90c. So if you want to buy below $15 you will have to wait until after 30/03, I do not think it will drop that far before (if it does I will buy much more just for the didvs). 

WBII


----------



## Out Too Soon (15 March 2007)

Well I'm sick of missing out, I've got an order (expires 29/3) in high 15s for the next time it dips.   (To add to what I already hold)   Will I have to wait 'til next Wednesday? or will it never go there again?  
Good luck all enjoy the rollercoaster!


----------



## eMark (15 March 2007)

Out Too Soon said:
			
		

> Well I'm sick of missing out, I've got an order (expires 29/3) in high 15s for the next time it dips.   (To add to what I already hold)   Will I have to wait 'til next Wednesday? or will it never go there again?
> Good luck all enjoy the rollercoaster!




In this climate, nothing is certain with this stock, expect the unexpected. But surely....it will start some sustained climb soon when getting closer to the ex dividend date.


----------



## UraniumLover (15 March 2007)

eMark said:
			
		

> In this climate, nothing is certain with this stock, expect the unexpected. But surely....it will start some sustained climb soon when getting closer to the ex dividend date.




Looking at market depth volumes a lot more buyers than sellers at current price levels so should go up despite fluctuations to zinc prices due to dividend factor.


----------



## toothfairy (16 March 2007)

Doesn't look too good atm with ^ in stockpile of some 6700 tones. POZ is on edge tonight methinks.


----------



## Out Too Soon (16 March 2007)

It's Oxiana & Bolnisi that flew today.   Yahoooo!


----------



## Halba (19 March 2007)

Holding up extremely well...I guess market figures still good profits at these zinc prices long term.


----------



## UraniumLover (19 March 2007)

Halba said:
			
		

> Holding up extremely well...I guess market figures still good profits at these zinc prices long term.



Considering LME stocks are increasing again it's been solid  - PE of 5.64, don't know any share lower. Does anyone?
Interesting to see how it goes after dividend. Last time it continued going up.


----------



## Halba (20 March 2007)

P/E doesn't mean much. If zinc prices go down due to stock build/outlook worsens then earnings will decline sending P/E higher.


----------



## Warren Buffet II (20 March 2007)

Halba said:
			
		

> P/E doesn't mean much. If zinc prices go down due to stock build/outlook worsens then earnings will decline sending P/E higher.




I disagree with your point because based on what you are saying P/E are invalid for any price takers? Well no, there are valid and it is a good reference when compared againts pair companies producing the same goods and services.

WBII


----------



## Halba (20 March 2007)

Warren Buffet another thing is that ZFX has always been trading at that p/e.

This is well known why: Mine life, single commodity risk, and leverage to zinc price (downs).

You can't possibly compare with BHP and RIO  = their mines lifes last 100 yrs.


----------



## Warren Buffet II (20 March 2007)

Halba said:
			
		

> Warren Buffet another thing is that ZFX has always been trading at that p/e.
> 
> This is well known why: Mine life, single commodity risk, and leverage to zinc price (downs).
> 
> You can't possibly compare with BHP and RIO  = their mines lifes last 100 yrs.




Agree Halba, that is why I refer to "pair" companies, BHP and RIO are in a completely different league, but companies that have the similar assets and produce zinc as well are trading at much higher P/Es.

WBII


----------



## Halba (20 March 2007)

Hmm I don't know any that trade higher? Don't cite teck cominco as an example - they are not just a zinc company. KZL is a copper co as well.


----------



## YELNATS (20 March 2007)

Warren Buffet II said:
			
		

> Agree Halba, that is why I refer to "pair" companies, BHP and RIO are in a completely different league, but companies that have the similar assets and produce zinc as well are trading at much higher P/Es.
> 
> WBII




WB II, do you mean "peer" companies? I agree that BHP & RIO are not peers of ZFX, they're in a different league. What peer companies of ZFX do you mean?


----------



## Halba (20 March 2007)

He's talking about pure zinc plays. Theres not too many of them and most of them are foreign listed. Can't really directly compare ZFX to the rest. I think other assets have more mine life. Teck's Red Dog's mine life is bigger than ZFX's century so you can't compare Teck's p/e to ZFX's p/e.


----------



## coyotte (21 March 2007)

You can't get much closer to price action than a P&F chart.

For ZFX -- box size .50c and 3 box reversal.

LONG : If move into 18.50 box (triple top @ 18.00 box) would be a high probability trade 
SHORT: If move into 15.00 box (double bottom @ 15.50 box) would be a low/medium probability trade


----------



## Out Too Soon (30 March 2007)

Zinifex gos ex div today & what a tasty div it is. Tempted to just sit on my ZFX shares for another 6mths, (or 12, 18  ). I certainly won't be selling @ the current sp.


----------



## Rafa (30 March 2007)

yup, ex div today...
i bought in a week back, and down only 20c all up, but have got the dividend...!
money for jam!


----------



## Halba (30 March 2007)

I  don't see much immediate upside to zinifex. Reasons are: though its a cash cow, it doesn't have any growth projects in the next 2-3 years. Dugald river startup is in 2011.


----------



## Rafa (30 March 2007)

Halba, tend to agree, upside probably capped at around 18 bucks for now...
However, once details of the smelter diversification are clarified, things could get interesting then...

i don' think i'll be holding for long, mainly got it for the dividend...


----------



## Halba (30 March 2007)

I am continuing to hold. This is because ZFX is a major zinc mining house, has a lot of cash. Expect some deal flow. Cash means it can buy businesses to add to growth long term. This is stuck in my super fund, never selling it.


----------



## vishalt (31 March 2007)

I believe that Zinc supply is tight - but I don't doubt its consolidating at the moment.

I'm going to hold it as a long term assett but i'll only start buying a fair few support levels below ($13.50 etc), because i'm not sure if Zinc has further to go in its correction and the state of the Dow is quirking me.


----------



## michael_selway (31 March 2007)

Halba said:


> I am continuing to hold. This is because ZFX is a major zinc mining house, has a lot of cash. Expect some deal flow. Cash means it can buy businesses to add to growth long term. This is stuck in my super fund, never selling it.




Vyer true also takeover target as always!

thx

MS


----------



## misterS (31 March 2007)

Post-smelter spin-off seems prime time for takeover. Capital return ratio improves and great cash-cow, short of complete zinc price rout. 

Stick my neck out (not that I have any reputation to risk in the first place) with a prediction that Teck will takeover within 3 months of smelter business spin-off (and sale of zfx share of the spun-off entity).

There has been plenty of take-over talk concerning zfx at various times, but to me that is the very best time and if it ain't then - when?  

Gailey is due to go in the next couple of years, so he may see shepherding through a takeover as a satisfactory conclusion to a very good period.  

The alternative is maybe blowing all the cash and maybe incurring big debt  to take over others, but what is achieved by skewing the company operations solely to fend off a take-over? 

Independent existence under those circumstances is not necessarily better than exisiting within the fold of a giant multi-mineral company. 

Zfx has continued to reward holders with serious cash and a take-over would produce a fantastic sp finale in that regard and what would be wrong with that - it's not a family concern or a favourite football team - its a company.


----------



## Halba (31 March 2007)

misterS said:
			
		

> Stick my neck out (not that I have any reputation to risk in the first place) with a prediction that Teck will takeover within 3 months of smelter business spin-off




Hmm not too sure..ZFX have a mine life issue with ore from century gone by 2015. The other areas on the lease don't have as much ore. Its not as if Century can repeat. I disagree with the view it will get taken over.


----------



## Julia (31 March 2007)

Halba said:


> I am continuing to hold. This is because ZFX is a major zinc mining house, has a lot of cash. Expect some deal flow. Cash means it can buy businesses to add to growth long term. This is stuck in my super fund, never selling it.




NEVER selling it?????


----------



## misterS (1 April 2007)

Halba - 8 years of Century output is still a few quid, and obviously you consider Zfx should be able to crank up something else with the billions of dollars it will reap in the meantime.  

Well, would reap, if they weren't going to be swallowed by Teck at the end of this year - according to my prescient previous post (don't you love alliteration?) and they Teck can do something with the cash instead.

Julia - don't try and make people change their mind and sell with their own post - it's cruel.


----------



## vishalt (1 April 2007)

Would be awesome if Teck Cominco launched a hostile takeover hey?


----------



## michael_selway (1 April 2007)

vishalt said:


> Would be awesome if Teck Cominco launched a hostile takeover hey?




If so it will be $20 per share min imo

thx

MS


----------



## Halba (1 April 2007)

Julia said:


> NEVER selling it?????




Held since about April 2006. Still have held.


----------



## nizar (1 April 2007)

Julia said:


> NEVER selling it?????




Agree.
As they say you cant eat paper.


----------



## Halba (1 April 2007)

hehehe its a solid investment. I have a few thousand of these, I don't think there's much case for selling as you need diversity. Its got a good ff divvy yield so I will keep them. Zinc can come back and it'll do better. You never know. Don't count metals out. Uranium isn't the only commodity in demand. It made a billion bucks at lower zinc prices so not much downside from these levels.


----------



## misterS (1 April 2007)

Halba - bought mine in April 2006 too, so happy to hold as well, but admit the $18-$19 in Dec would have tempted me then if my 12 months for CGT had been up.:sleeping: 

The smelter cash and final ff divvie are satisfactory compensation in the meantime, while we wait to see if the sp returns to $18 territory. 

Even if Teck doesn't snatch zfx, with a premium, the post-smelter spin-off period should be positive for the focussed zfx with the improvement to its capital return ratio - the same factors that increase its attractiveness as a take-over target.


----------



## Halba (1 April 2007)

Yep, the mngmt team probably needs to be more aggressive in their exploration. Sure they are doing a lot of jv's and stuff, but the key is finding another monster orebody in QLD to replace century. I know easier said than done.


----------



## vishalt (2 April 2007)

Bloomberg said:
			
		

> Zinifex, Umicore May Sell Shares in Zinc Venture in September
> 
> By Tan Hwee Ann
> 
> ...




Anyone know what this means lol?


----------



## Gundini (2 April 2007)

Not sure, but ZFX not pretty of late. 

I sold out today.


----------



## vishalt (2 April 2007)

im buying more


----------



## Gundini (3 April 2007)

vishalt said:


> im buying more




Seems to be good support around $15.13. The chart look horrible though. Do you think it will hold? 

Are we going to see $14.25 ? (support), $13.57 ? (next support) 

Weekly MACD heading for the Abyss  

Would think there will be some bargain hunters around the low $15's...

Any takers at these levels?


----------



## vishalt (3 April 2007)

Doesn't look too good on the charts no, went through that support zone, i'm just gonna keep buying @ support points, im chillaxed. 

I read somewhere yesterday that Zinifex is more of an attractive takeover since its combining smelters with Belgian Umicore.

It's also funny - the market manipulation happening.. those Zinc stocks keep falling and so does the price lol, reminds me of Copper in May.


----------



## Out Too Soon (3 April 2007)

vishalt said:


> im buying more




Looks like ppl went over board punishing ZFX for going ex div, I started to get depressed, pretty stupid really, I should just be happy to get the chance of a great bargain while it lasts.   Just where should we consider the support line to be???  $15.01??? & what should I sell (@ a loss, GLE, DLS, BON) to buy more ZFX???   So many questions, better hurry up & make a decision.  help!


----------



## eMark (3 April 2007)

Out Too Soon said:


> Looks like ppl went over board punishing ZFX for going ex div, I started to get depressed, pretty stupid really, I should just be happy to get the chance of a great bargain while it lasts.   Just where should we consider the support line to be???  $15.01??? & what should I sell (@ a loss, GLE, DLS, BON) to buy more ZFX???   So many questions, better hurry up & make a decision.  help!




I'm in the same boat as you. I am hanging on to PSA & JMS at a loss, better of selling at a loss and putting the cash into ZFX I feel. Great chance to reduce my average on a solid stock (as I am currently well below my BUY for ZFX) It's a real laggard at the moment, but it will turn around, it's just a matter of when. Remember when ZFX went backwards from 13.50 to 9.00 around this time last year I think. It's not as if Zinc is finished...

Hope that helps, you're not alone.


----------



## vishalt (3 April 2007)

Those are my next buy points: $15.10, $14.10, $13.50, $12.30 respectively.. ofcourse i'll try and monitor if ZFX can actually hold those points rather than just put my orders in and go to sleep.


----------



## vishalt (3 April 2007)

Ah - I read a pretty nice article on The Financial Review, i'll just quote: "Analysts in Australia expect Zinifex to return the bulk of the proceeds of the float to share-holders by way of dividends."

Could see a special dividend + higher profits coming up methinks!


----------



## nomore4s (3 April 2007)

Looks like it broke through support at $15.10 today, but it may still hold there depending on what tomorrow brings, but imo it looks likely the next major support will be where the 200ma line hits the support line at about $14.20-$14.30. If it breaks down past that point it could get ugly, the next point of $13.50 might not have enough support to stop the fall as it will have a bit of momentum by then, but it could of course find its own support anywhere between $12.10 & $14.00. Both the MACD and the RSI are looking very weak at the moment as well.
I won't be rushing out to buy any till it shows signs of slowing down and finds support somewhere. (I don't hold)


----------



## Julia (3 April 2007)

misterS said:


> Julia - don't try and make people change their mind and sell with their own post - it's cruel.




I'm not trying to make anyone do anything.  Just recognising some of the same type of statements I used to make  to justify holding a falling stock.


I can remember convincing myself that because GTP had  gone over $5
then that had to be its "true value"  (no idea why!) so I managed to produce every rationalisation possible to justify why I was holding it as it plummeted.
Still made plenty out of it, but would have made more had I sold it as soon as the downward slide started.


----------



## misterS (3 April 2007)

Julia - my comment was just a quick joke mate - demonstrates risk of quick jokes when in email / posts - not suggesting you were trying to make anyone do anything - could see you were simply volunteering a wry and accurate observation for Halba's consideration.  
cheers


----------



## coyotte (4 April 2007)

ZFX from a different perspective :

Q2  bottom is projected @ 14.84/14.36
April bottom "  "    "   "  @ 15.15/ 14.94   

Aug /14/ 06 is the only time the projection appears to have failed in the last 12 mths -- but the close of the day was above the projected low.
With panic selling who knows ?


----------



## Kauri (5 April 2007)

May be bottoming out, looks a good place to put in the W 4 low??.


----------



## Halba (5 April 2007)

bottomed out nicely. my decision to hold has been vindicated. Remember this is not your average run of the mill spec. 

Company made $1bn at $1/lb zinc and will continue to generate good cash flow even despite rising costs

Upsides include (these range from short term to long term)

zinc price recovery/zinc inventory drawdowns later this year (copper as the model) ~China demand, pickup in US housing.

smelter spin off

exploration upside in QLD leases, discovery of additional orebodies similar in size to Century to expand mine life.

Dugald River BFS completion 

Takeover speculation(BHP,Xstrata,Teck cominco have been long rumoured to want ZFX's century asset. Somehow i doubt this as limited mine life)

Diversification into other metals streams e.g. into nickel or copper or precious metals gold (Oxiana or KZL)

Expansion of production at Rosebery (rumoured) , expansion of mine life at Rosebery

Downsides:

continual zinc price manipulation/ inventory manipulation at the LME (increase in visible stocks)

continual slow down in zinc demand as evident from weakening drawdown rates in the US (i.e. New orleans LME warehouse)

Chinese production of zinc/excess production capacity

inability to discover additional orebodies forcing ZFX to pay for assets at the top of the cycle


----------



## Col Lector (5 April 2007)

This has a positively zinc hue to it.....



Move to boost zinc imports
By Wan Zhihong (China Daily)
Updated: 2007-04-05 08:41



The government may remove the export tax rebate on high-purity refined zinc in a move to promote zinc imports. 

Related readings:
Shanghai begins zinc futures trade
China leads world in nonferrous metals output
Vast metal reserves on 'roof of world'


Plans are afoot to remove the 5-percent export tax rebate on zinc over 99.995 percent pure, Zhou Guobao, director of the lead and zinc division at the China Non-ferrous Metals Industry Association, was quoted by Shanghai Securities News as saying. 

The proposal is subject to approval by the State Council, said Zhou, but did not elaborate when it will be implemented. 

China's zinc demand will rise about 10 percent this year from last year's 3.4 million tons, said Zhou. Zinc prices will remain high at around 28,000 yuan to 30,000 yuan per ton in the domestic market, he added. 

Zinc exports surpassed imports for the first time in October, a consequence of the price difference between domestic and overseas markets, said Feng Juncong, an analyst with Antaike Information Development Co Ltd, a State-owned non-ferrous metals information provider. 

Zinc imports and exports will fluctuate over the next few months, but the nation will still remain a net zinc importer this year, she said. 

"Small and outdated zinc mining capacity will be gradually phased out this year in accordance with the government's control policies," said Feng. 

New lead and zinc mines will be blocked if their annual capacity is under 30,000 tons and the service period is less than 15 years, said a statement from the National Development and Reform Commission last month. 

High raw-material prices led to frenzied zinc mine investments by major zinc companies last year, said Feng. Zinc smelters also expanded their production last year. 

Chihong Zinc and Germanium Co Ltd, the listed subsidiary of Yunnan Metallurgical General Company, has issued an additional 35 million A shares to its parent for the acquisition of a lead and zinc mine in Zhaotong. 

Huludao Zinc Industry Co Ltd said it will issue 300 million additional A shares to raise 120 million yuan to purchase a lead and zinc mine in Tibet. 


(China Daily 04/05/2007 page13)


----------



## UraniumLover (18 April 2007)

What's wrong with ZFX these days? Certainly not the ZFX I got to know.
Zinc prices are going up and yet ZFX isn't. I'm used to seeing a direct correlation between the price of zinc and ZFX. Seems to be in a bearish sleep at the moment.


----------



## ozambersand (19 April 2007)

While its price is low, it's certainly good for any prospective take-over player to buy in quietly. With the proposed hive ff of the smelting business, it is being rumoured as a take-over target. Especially sitting on $600 million cash? (I may have that figure wrong)

Also a low price is better for investment people to buy in with the superannuation money they have to offload before the end of April. From memory I read that by the end of January the super funds had billions of super fund dollars they HAD to put into the stock market before the end of the quarter. 

As another quarter is about to end I am assuming the same thing holds true!

There is no possibility it is being kept low deliberately for these two purposes is there?


----------



## Ken (19 April 2007)

ZFX

Whos buying at these levels?


----------



## vishalt (19 April 2007)

I keep buying it.. Zinc + Zinifex consolodating atm imo, just like last time between $9-$11 range

and yeah with it partnering with Umicore something big could be looming in the horizon..


----------



## Ken (19 April 2007)

Whats the closest company that comes close to ZFX?

Speaking of zinc is anyone looking at that new zinc float?


----------



## itchy (20 April 2007)

What zinc float ken? I'm interested.


----------



## Ken (20 April 2007)

http://www.zincco.com.au/pdf/ZincCo_Prospectus3AprFinal_ApplicFrm_Web.pdf


----------



## Devil_Star (20 April 2007)

It will be very difficult to get Zinc Co's allocations from public offers.


----------



## Ken (20 April 2007)

Why?

Its just a name....


The company assets might be no good..


----------



## Devil_Star (21 April 2007)

Ken said:


> Why?
> 
> Its just a name....
> 
> ...




You didn't see how buyers rushed to buy GIR shares in order to secure their priority offers for Zinc Co just before the record date. Lucky I picked a tip and topped up my GIR holdings before GIR became real expensive.


----------



## michael_selway (21 April 2007)

UraniumLover said:


> What's wrong with ZFX these days? Certainly not the ZFX I got to know.
> Zinc prices are going up and yet ZFX isn't. I'm used to seeing a direct correlation between the price of zinc and ZFX. Seems to be in a bearish sleep at the moment.




Thats means theres good value in ZFX now? 

thx

MS


----------



## UraniumLover (22 April 2007)

come on Zinafex !!
LME stocks are falling nicely now


----------



## Moneybags (22 April 2007)

UraniumLover said:


> LME stocks are falling nicely now




........like sand thru the hour glass......

MB


----------



## reece55 (22 April 2007)

Guys
I'm not sure why everyone is still hot on ZFX......

As the market has soared forward, ZFX has been left behind....

All I see since January is a series of lower highs and lower lows.....

Support @ $15.00 and we are now approaching 4 test of that level in 4 months. If it were to break, I would actually be tempted to short the stock.....

In saying this however, I note that AXA have increased their stake again and the fundamentals are certainly there, so if you are long term, you may wish to add to your holding if this is value to you..... But its price that pays us and I just don't see the action I want here...

Cheers
Reece


----------



## misterS (23 April 2007)

Reece - Shorting it from $15 would be a pretty gutsy call - maybe depending on how far out you go.  Seems to run its own race vis other miners' sp.  The final div ought to be around $1, with the $2b smelter cash maybe distributed before that and then t/o with premium at the end of the year  .  Supply side is always a bit rubbery, so the point at which zinc goes into surplus (est. 2008) is not fixed either and sovereign risks are a bit unpredictable - but even then the zinc price still generates a lot of cash for ZFX.  

You already know all this I guess, but I think any time this year up till about... now... would have been a short oppportunity (although that is from a tech ignorant).  If it gets under $15, I dips me lid to ya.  I reckon a surge back into $16 is more likely.
cheers


----------



## ozambersand (23 April 2007)

Just in case you weren't aware, according to this morning's Sydney Morning Herald, Zinifex is reporting on its third quarter results on Thursday (ie from 31 December to 31 March).

They warned last report that the continuing increase in profits would depend on continued price of zinc - which hasn't happened. Remember their prices aren't hedged so they will fluctuate.

Here is the 12 month price of zinc from Kitco:





As you can see, they will be reporting a return much lower than the previous quarter but probably on par with the previous year's quarter.

They had a couple of outages during the period (which were all reported) but these shouldn't have affected return. The increase in the Australian dollar price also has to be factored in but from memory I don't think it rose till after March so that will impact next quarter.

The fact that Zinifex has been going down while the market goes up probably reflects people offloading stock in anticipation of this result.

The interesting point is whether there will be any announcement about how they will handle the smelter spin-off. If they do make an announcement, I expect the price will rally again after they get the third quarter announcement out of the way.

So, how much the price of Zinifex will go down (or up) will be interesting.

Here's Zinifex's chart from the Commsec site:





(As a newbie, I'm not too sure whether it's OK to just copy in charts like this -let me know if it isn't)


----------



## Halba (23 April 2007)

I'm just looking at ZFX, and how its SP has been behaving of late(continual consolidation, no upside to share price recently), investors must be forgiven for thinking this share is a dog? . No return in this stock for six months.


----------



## Rafa (23 April 2007)

dunno about that, couple of nice fat juicy dividends in there (70c fully franked)... of which i have taken and since exited.


----------



## misterS (23 April 2007)

Might forgive investors for thinking it was "a bit of a dog", if they got in at $16 -$18 and were disappointed.  

The interim 70c div had the anticipated wolfden money snipped off it, as well the other expl cost.

The graph still has a good zinc price for the last half, lead did better than anticipated and the price of zinc is rising - not likely to hit $2 again but it might reach $1.80 as the deficit for '07 manifests itself over the next couple of months and I think the final div will be at least another 70c.

It will be interesting to see who takes over the reins from CEO Greig Gailey after the smelter spin-off and whether they propose to use the $2b odd in cash for acquisition, instead paying shareholders a special dividend. 

Presumably that will be the first question the board asks whoever they headhunt for the job, and "give it away" may not be seen as the most imaginative and forward-thinking answer for an aspiring new CEO of a company to give with Zfx "poised to commence the next phase in its transformation into a major global mining house" to quote today's ann.

Either scenario is attractive, and the ideal end-game for me is the t/o of Zfx by Teck just after it really transforms into JUST a zinc miner with truckloads of cash.

As for the sp - dunno, been too many swings to count but I still think, up from here.


----------



## chops_a_must (23 April 2007)

ZFX is a no brainer as a long termer. Cash at nearly $1b, and probably double by the end of the year. As opposed to Reece, I think this will break up and out. If it broke down, the cash position would basically become about a third of the worth of the company... crazy. It is making lower lows and lower highs etc. but it is still within the bounds of the long term trend. It hasn't been falling at 45degrees, the POZ is looking strong. There are so many factors to stop this falling over. Just a bit of convergence with every factor pointing to it rising further.

Punters may have become nervous as to the Umicore deal perhaps? Waiting to see if they're going to get shafted?

I just hope I can get some money together to put into this one before it breaks out, as I feel it will do well, and the cash position makes future development that much easier.

And I don't hold at the moment.


----------



## Dutchy3 (23 April 2007)

I'm with chops ... just waiting for that big confirming white


----------



## michael_selway (23 April 2007)

chops_a_must said:


> ZFX is a no brainer as a long termer. Cash at nearly $1b, and probably double by the end of the year. As opposed to Reece, I think this will break up and out. If it broke down, the cash position would basically become about a third of the worth of the company... crazy. It is making lower lows and lower highs etc. but it is still within the bounds of the long term trend. It hasn't been falling at 45degrees, the POZ is looking strong. There are so many factors to stop this falling over. Just a bit of convergence with every factor pointing to it rising further.
> 
> Punters may have become nervous as to the Umicore deal perhaps? Waiting to see if they're going to get shafted?
> 
> ...




I agree, its all about Value!

*EPS(c) PE Growth 
Year Ending 30-06-07 303.9 5.1 38.2% 
Year Ending 30-06-08 238.4 6.4 -21.6%* 

*Earnings and Dividends Forecast (cents per share) 
2006 2007 2008 2009 
EPS 219.9 303.9 238.4 185.1 
DPS 80.0 140.0 140.0 89.0 *

thx

MS


----------



## rederob (23 April 2007)

reece
I'm still trying to work you out!
When the fundamentals of a stock barely change, and the price of the stock falls disproportionately, the chance of that stock being a good shorting opportunity is negligible.
Indeed, it's time to go long.

Luckily I am not hampered by chop's predicament.
The Nystar proposition is likely to release greater value to shareholders before year's end, so I guess I'm married to it for a good while yet.


----------



## Out Too Soon (24 April 2007)

Halba said:


> I'm just looking at ZFX, and how its SP has been behaving of late(continual consolidation, no upside to share price recently), investors must be forgiven for thinking this share is a dog? . No return in this stock for six months.




Vivid imagination!: 

I just wish I was home the day it dipped to very low ~$15.15 or so, I wasn't & missed out on grabbing more.   Looks like it might even hit $16 today, I wonder if we'll see $18 or more again this year?


----------



## AnalysisParalysis (24 April 2007)

I'm first, I'm first!


----------



## michael_selway (24 April 2007)

AnalysisParalysis said:


> I'm first, I'm first!




Is that chart bullish or bearish on ZFX?

thx

MS


----------



## AnalysisParalysis (24 April 2007)

Here's an 18 month view. I'm bullish. Bullish up day with volume off long term support.

As well, there's the support levels around $15. This bounce makes it a higher trough as well.


----------



## Halba (24 April 2007)

Break out! ZFX on a new uptrend I think, it will test its highs from here.

Reason: Zinc price has also broken out. Stockpiles have broken below 100,000tonnes. Lots of zinc users are coming back to the market.

As zinc price increases, analysts will have to redo their valuations! I guess it is not a dog after all.

Disclosure: AM in, leveraged warrants.


----------



## drmb (24 April 2007)

Ain't that purty now? C'mon pretty pozzy, pozzy, c'mon up up up! 
(Kitcometals at 9pm aest) 
Zinc April 24,06:29 
Bid/Ask 1.7199 - 1.7244 
Change +0.0249  +1.47% 
Low/High 1.6949 - 1.7312


----------



## reece55 (24 April 2007)

rederob said:


> reece
> I'm still trying to work you out!
> When the fundamentals of a stock barely change, and the price of the stock falls disproportionately, the chance of that stock being a good shorting opportunity is negligible.
> 
> ...




Just to clarify, what I was saying was why would you be interested in ZFX until it showed some promising signs...... And I said BELOW $15.00 I would be tempted to short on a technical basis, not on a fundamental basis. To be perfectly honest, I don't think I would have had the strength to do it even if it did break $15.00 because of the sheer strength and volatility of the share! Long term there is just no doubt ZFX is a no brainer - the divestment of the smelters will most likely give them a war chest of cash to play with, along with their existing cash. My point was when there are so many opportunities in the market elsewhere, there is no use in trading a share that is jogging sideways (or downwards as ZFX has been of late).

Today was most definitely the price action I was looking for...... I see UBS have announced they are sub holders with 6% of the stock and today the market for ZFX shares changed. We have significantly high volume, close on the highs and the $15 support barrier has held very strong. In addition the descending highs in place since January 07 has now ended. 

So, in summary, whilst on a fundamental basis I agreed with everyone here, I just didn't see price action that I liked. Now that I have that in the picture now, it looks ripe for an entry.

Cheers


----------



## rederob (24 April 2007)

Thanks reece.
The next cab off the rank should be OXR, but it's already showed the glimmer of life needed to get it over $4 in the medium term.
At a lesser level is MMN, which is performing miserably given the price of silver.
I agree that trading sideways action is a futile pursuit.
However, I found the notion of "shorting" a stock that was not a dog, and only moderately out of favour, a good way to lose money.

Zinc has technically roared back to life, and is now being well underpinned by supply/demand fundamentals.  These data do not yet show zinc to be as robust a proposition as it was last year; but positive signs should never be discounted when higher prices get firmly bought-into.


----------



## goetzuwe (25 April 2007)

Good news: (base metals report)

Zinc is at $3835, up $105; charts are looking increasingly more positive and a test of $3960
looks to be in the cards. We also thought that yesterday's Chinese data was constructive as far
as zinc was concerned. Although March refined zinc exports came in at 33,000 tons, they were
well below February 47,000 tons reading, and could be the start of a downward trajectory in
exports.


----------



## dlineinvestor (26 April 2007)

For anyone wanting to re-enter ZFX, stick to the basic's of charting and when the golden cross occurs (circle) accompanied with volume ZFX could even breach 17.00 soon.


----------



## Sean K (26 April 2007)

dlineinvestor said:


> could even breach 17.00 soon.



dline, you can't just put these type of statements out there without expanding a bit. Ramp otherwise. Just because it's crossed a MA doesn't mean it's going to reach any particular price. So, why 17 bucks? Thanks, kennas


----------



## AnalysisParalysis (26 April 2007)

I exited today @ 16.50. Too much resistance on M/D. 31% on call option.


----------



## Halba (26 April 2007)

AnalysisParalysis said:


> I exited today @ 16.50. Too much resistance on M/D. 31% on call option.




Decided to persist with this long trade, possibly due to spinoff creating some more additional value, and zinc stockpiles declining(slowly). Some favourable data came in saying that western world demand for zinc is high (despite Chinese exporting a fair bit)

Maybe someone a bit more patient can eek out a few more % here. Sometimes a few % is worth it. $17 is a tough call as I agree a lot of resistance. All dependent on zinc price fluctuations this stock.


----------



## Out Too Soon (26 April 2007)

As everyone's being open, I've had a sell order on ZFX @ $16.79 for ages but I've just cancelled it. Not sure if I've done the right thing of course & the amount of rise over the last week has been quite a surprise, now I'm not sure where to peg my sell order. 
The charts posted are all appreciated but,
Kennas! mate , buddy,   , could you please give us a Kennas chart please, you're still allowed to as a moderator aren't you?


----------



## Sean K (26 April 2007)

OK OTS...

As mentioned above, on 6 month daily, lots of resistance at $16.50 ish. Perhaps more like $16.60-$17.00. Unfortunately, a double whammy with the downtrend resistance line also colliding with this horizontal resistance. Interesting though is that the indicators are looking OK to bullish at the moment. Could _possibly _ be just starting to turn around with MACD, Stochs and RSI just starting to turn up, or already pointing up, on both charts. I wouldn't start counting chickens until it beats 17. For a start it needs to make a higher high, which maybe it has through 16..... 

pe 7.5!


----------



## vishalt (26 April 2007)

I have faith in Zinifex fundametally, but am gonna pull out just to ease up for May though.. and hopefully get better prices to enter at.


----------



## AnalysisParalysis (26 April 2007)

Playing devil's advocate here. One other possible, however unlikely, outcome is the current "retracement" continuing along the downtrend line. Just thought I'd post it for an alternative view.


----------



## AnalysisParalysis (26 April 2007)

And here's the chart, seeing as I forgot to post it in the last message. 100 characters means that our posts have to really be of high quality.


----------



## rederob (26 April 2007)

AnalysisParalysis said:


> And here's the chart, seeing as I forgot to post it in the last message. 100 characters means that our posts have to really be of high quality.




AP
If you are going to be the devil's advocate, be  clever little devil and use a semi-log (not a linear) chart for the time frame indicated.
You might be surprised!


----------



## toothfairy (26 April 2007)

As long as the earth is still turning & shares are still trading, there will be endless arguments about technicals vs fundamentals. Why don't we all agree that they both have effect on shares. The lesson to learn is some shares are dependent (or affected) more by one than the other. I would say in my experience ZFX is 80% governed by fundamentals like POZ, deals, explorations, PE, news, rumours etc. It is going up now because the fundamentals are appearing positive again, that's all. Simple, U like it, U buy it. You want to play TA, try NAB or TLS (their fundamentals stay the same for years! For TLS, read bad.) Only technicals move them.

Just my thought, please disagree. Cheers.


----------



## AnalysisParalysis (26 April 2007)

rederob said:


> AP
> If you are going to be the devil's advocate, be  clever little devil and use a semi-log (not a linear) chart for the time frame indicated.
> You might be surprised!




Ok I tried that, and see how it removed  that radical price dip.

I've never seen that before. Could you elaborate on it's uses, thanks.


----------



## Kipp (27 April 2007)

AnalysisParalysis said:


> And here's the chart, seeing as I forgot to post it in the last message. 100 characters means that our posts have to really be of high quality.




AP- not sure that I'd agree with your support line there- it doesn't even touch any of the lows formed in ZFXs uptrend over the past 12 months.  If you drew if so that it actually DID graze them ou would see that long term suppor was~$15, not 12 as youve indiciated.


----------



## Kipp (27 April 2007)

Yep- about $15... in my opinion.  Which is roughly were it found support (got to $15.15 on April 4). Interesting to see that ZFX didn't break out end of Feb when if broke resistence, but I suppose because it co-incided with the general shake up of the market at the time... not too many breakouts around then.  

Also- nice to see the LME Zn below 100K again.


----------



## Kauri (28 April 2007)

Looks interesting again, especially the recent volume coupled with the short term horizontal resistance she is butting up agin.


----------



## AnalysisParalysis (28 April 2007)

Kipp said:


> AP- not sure that I'd agree with your support line there- it doesn't even touch any of the lows formed in ZFXs uptrend over the past 12 months.  If you drew if so that it actually DID graze them ou would see that long term suppor was~$15, not 12 as youve indiciated.




Sorry Kipp,

                One of those posts I wish I hadn't done, but can't do anything about now.   On the previous page you'll see the first one I posted, which is probably closer to reality.

Thanks.


----------



## Kauri (3 May 2007)

Kauri said:


> Looks interesting again, especially the recent volume coupled with the short term horizontal resistance she is butting up agin.




   Have moved stop up to the break even point after she broke through the short term horizontal resistance, looking initially for around $18 odd, jury is still out on whether this is start of new upleg or still in the correction.


----------



## Punter (3 May 2007)

toothfairy said:


> As long as the earth is still turning & shares are still trading, there will be endless arguments about technicals vs fundamentals. Why don't we all agree that they both have effect on shares. The lesson to learn is some shares are dependent (or affected) more by one than the other. I would say in my experience ZFX is 80% governed by fundamentals like POZ, deals, explorations, PE, news, rumours etc. It is going up now because the fundamentals are appearing positive again, that's all. Simple, U like it, U buy it. You want to play TA, try NAB or TLS (their fundamentals stay the same for years! For TLS, read bad.) Only technicals move them.
> 
> Just my thought, please disagree. Cheers.




nice post. just go for the gamble. stock market is like betting or punting much like my nick  . Its best off to stick with the trends and momentum. Right now this stock has momentum. . Its easier to go long in a resources boom.


----------



## Kauri (7 May 2007)

Have taken the short term portion of this trade out at a bit better than 2R, long term portion left on with stop at breakeven in case this is start of larger leg W(5).


----------



## PureCoco (9 May 2007)

"Zinifex Limited announced today that its wholly-owned subsidiary, Zinifex
Canadian Enterprises Inc. ("ZCE"), has taken up approximately 86 million
common shares of Wolfden Resources Inc. ("Shares") pursuant to ZCE's offer
(the "Offer") to acquire all of the outstanding Shares for C$3.81 in cash per
Share. The Shares acquired represent 95% of the issued and outstanding
Shares. ZCE will pay for all Shares taken up today on or before 11 May 2007
in Toronto."


----------



## Kauri (10 May 2007)

Interesting to see if ZFX can take out the WB high, has been flirting with it yesterday and again today...


----------



## toothfairy (10 May 2007)

Kauri said:


> Interesting to see if ZFX can take out the WB high, has been flirting with it yesterday and again today...




If you take into consideration of the recent ex dividends of a hefty 70c. It has taken that wave out & approaching peak.

Looks GOOD.


----------



## reece55 (12 May 2007)

Nice move since those 15.00 levels , I sure have been happy with my trade here since the 24 April on that great trend changing day....

In saying that, it's beginning to look like it is time for a rest, I have taken profits off the deck now, waiting for a small dip before the next big leg up....

My reasons are that resistance so far has not been breached, I see divergence on the RSI and the market in general is looking like we need a rest. Kauri, you still long here or banking in profits??

Cheers
Reece


----------



## Kauri (13 May 2007)

Hi Reece,
             Well done getting on at the start of this run, it's looking pretty good.
             My trade was two trades, a shorter term trade which I collected on for about 2R on the 7th, the other trade is longer term to catch (hopefully) most of this impulse. It looks to me that she may find a top for this minor wave between the resistances at $18 and $19.. before correcting into a W2?? My trade will stay on through this move if it eventuates, and I will endeavour to pyramid in with another trade if and when the W3 gets under way, ditto for W4 and W5 if they follow. 
     Cheers 
             Kauri


----------



## Kauri (27 May 2007)

Kauri said:


> Hi Reece,
> Well done getting on at the start of this run, it's looking pretty good.
> My trade was two trades, a shorter term trade which I collected on for about 2R on the 7th, the other trade is longer term to catch (hopefully) most of this impulse. It looks to me that she may find a top for this minor wave between the resistances at $18 and $19.. before correcting into a W2?? My trade will stay on through this move if it eventuates, and I will endeavour to pyramid in with another trade if and when the W3 gets under way, ditto for W4 and W5 if they follow.
> Cheers
> Kauri




   Looking promising ?? for end of W2 ??.. now to see if she fractals into an intermediate W3??? Either that or the ABC is not complete and we have a ways to fall yet..


----------



## hypnotic (27 May 2007)

hopefully your right Kauri,

Based on the increase in zinc spot price and base metal price this weekend and the potential for further increase we should see Zinifix go up on Monday. 
Today Zinc spot price jumped back 5% so far and the levels of LME zinc stock pile is decreasing back to the 75000t and dropping further. Judging by the response of zinc price on the last decrease  back in Oct 06 sometime to 50000t we can hopefully expect the zinc price to rise back to $1.8 or even US$2 per lb. currently US$1.6722/lb (Kitco)

Of coz nothing is certain, but there is definitely going to be good rise on zinc spot price without any increase in stock pile. 

Hypnotic


----------



## Kauri (27 May 2007)

and the support line (channel) paralelled from the W*(1)*-W*(3)* highs would suggest that the W*(4)* is in, is this touch going to rebound with a little volume bubble like the previous two???


----------



## michael_selway (28 May 2007)

Kauri said:


> and the support line (channel) paralelled from the W*(1)*-W*(3)* highs would suggest that the W*(4)* is in, is this touch going to rebound with a little volume bubble like the previous two???




Hi are is that bullish or bearish on ZFX technically in the ST or MT?

thx

MS

*Earnings and Dividends Forecast (cents per share) 
2006 2007 2008 2009 
EPS 219.9 278.9 234.7 175.8 
DPS 80.0 141.5 120.7 78.8 *


----------



## Kauri (31 May 2007)

Have refrained from pyramiding onto ZFX as the stop at W2 doesn't give me a good RR, and the stop if set at W*2* (*??*) for a better although riskier RR doesn't seem right (gut feeling??). Also the vol, altthough having a spike on the exhaustion 5 days ago, hasn't really gone on with it.. I'll let it develop and maybe a better opportunity will present??


----------



## Jay-684 (31 May 2007)

finally exited out of this this morning after first buying @ $3.30

dont know if I'll ever get back in, but we'll see, I said that the last time I sold for $16.80, then bought back in @ 10.80 a few months later!


----------



## toothfairy (1 June 2007)

Jay-684 said:


> finally exited out of this this morning after first buying @ $3.30
> 
> dont know if I'll ever get back in, but we'll see, I said that the last time I sold for $16.80, then bought back in @ 10.80 a few months later!




When did you sell @ $16.8 and when did you buy back a few months later @ $10.8. Are you sure that was not the other way round?


----------



## Jay-684 (1 June 2007)

toothfairy said:


> When did you sell @ $16.8 and when did you buy back a few months later @ $10.8. Are you sure that was not the other way round?




My bad, whenI quoted those prices I didnt have it all infront of me!

03/03/2005 - Bought 1000 @ 3.30
19/05/2006 - Sold 1000 @ 10.90
13/09/2006 - Bought 1000 @ 10.80
09/01/2007 - Sold 1000 @ 17.03
05/02/2007 - Bought 1000 @ 16.03
31/05/2007 - Sold 1000 @ 17.59

Total profit - 458%


----------



## Kimosabi (1 June 2007)

Jay-684 said:


> Positive!
> 
> 03/03/2005 - Bought 1000 @ 3.30
> 19/05/2006 - Sold 1000 @ 10.90
> ...




I would have kept the ones you bought at $3.30, you'd be sitting on $1540 worth of dividends, and halfway to paying off your initial capital outlay plus sitting on a 5 bagger.

Two more dividend payments and you'd be free carried by dividend payments 

How ofter does that happen now-a-days

Dividend Payments

18/11/2005 - $40
26/04/2006 - $100
10/11/2006 - $700
20/04/2007 - $700
.................$1540

Nicely done anyway...


----------



## Jay-684 (1 June 2007)

Kimosabi said:


> I would have kept the ones you bought at $3.30, you'd be sitting on $1540 worth of dividends, and halfway to paying off your initial capital outlay plus sitting on a 5 bagger.
> 
> Two more dividend payments and you'd be free carried by dividend payments
> 
> ...




I did receive the last 2 dividend payments ($700ea), cant remember about the first two, mind you they are small in comparison.

My only reason for selling is not because I dont believe ZFX will rise more, but purely because I wanted to lock in some profits as I will be purchasing a property in the next 12 months. That and ZFX usually fares poorly in a correction... not that I'm predicting one!

I'm sure it'll jump to $20 now


----------



## toothfairy (1 June 2007)

Jay-684 said:


> My bad, whenI quoted those prices I didnt have it all infront of me!
> 
> 03/03/2005 - Bought 1000 @ 3.30
> 19/05/2006 - Sold 1000 @ 10.90
> ...




Congrats, very well done, I hope you stick around this thread and give us some tips in the future .Too many people here wave around with ideas that are academic but not profitable.
BTW, do you think properties are not risky now?

Cheers.


----------



## Love Zn (4 June 2007)

I struggle to understand how ZFX opens up well, breaks over the $18 again, has the usual dip around lunch time, comes back up, but then within 1/2 hour of closing it dips down to the previous closing.  While at the same time KZL is going up in the last 1/2 hour.  So it can't be Zn price related.

Makes for interesting options trading


----------



## Kauri (13 June 2007)

Seems to be showing some strength again so far today in the face of Zinc price and general market adversity, albeit not on large volume, just might be a cuppa there... must be Ginseng....


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## Love Zn (13 June 2007)

Kauri what would you put the next resistance line at, if this does become a nice lipton?

It appears from today's trading that $18 was becoming a support.


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## Kauri (14 June 2007)

Well ZFX by my calculations is now in an area price (and time-wise.  ) where a correction *may* occur. Although I don't give much credence to rumours unless I start them myself a whisper that has been quietly circulating around the traps for a whiles now is that there *may* be some consolidation due in the Zinc sector, may go some ways towards explaining the resilence of ZFX???


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## Col Lector (14 June 2007)

GiddayKauri, 
Barron's have an article this week focussing on expected Zinc industry consolidation...unfortunately I am not a subscriber.
Re ZFX resilience...apart from being a play on further appreciation in POZ..it can be attributed to the strong dividend growth and those forecast for 2007 of $1.22 (i+final).
The AFR (June 9-10 page44)ranks ZFX first on the basis of fastest growth in dividends since 2005 (at 212%). 2005 4c; 2006 80c; 2007F 122c.
Additional to this, the restructure of ZFX is expected to bring a cash windfall, and some are predicting this could result in the payment of a significant special dividend beyond those forecast.
A couple of good reason's to hold IMO, beyond the positives for SP that could come with Zinc Industry consolidation.

Have a look at PEM's presentation (released today). It gives a good perspective of ZFX valuation relative to other zinc producers.


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## Kauri (15 June 2007)

Have moved my long-term stop up closer to the action as I think the intermediate W1 *may* be in.. if the count is correct that is...


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## Kauri (19 June 2007)

Kauri said:


> *May 31*..Have refrained from pyramiding onto ZFX as the stop at W2 doesn't give me a good RR, and the stop if set at W*2* (*??*) for a better although riskier RR *doesn't seem right (gut feeling??).* Also the vol, altthough having a spike on the exhaustion 5 days ago, hasn't really gone on with it.. I'll let it develop and maybe a better opportunity will present??




 Well the gut feeling turned out to be indigestion from bad prawns...looking *possibly* for the max W*5* area??? Has managed to take out the Dec high, which also rounds off the cup posted a few posts back. Must be something in the rumour mill as POZ hasn't tarnished her performance...*yet*!!!


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## hypnotic (19 June 2007)

Zinifix is searching to fill its top job as Greig Gailey decides to leave early from the company for personal reasons and the board has approved it. 

It is be interesting to see who takes the top job and where he/she decides to take the company. 

Although Zinc prices have fallen overnight, the zinc prices have been creeping up highwe over the last 4 months since the low in Feb. The zinc stock in the LME is continuing to decrease albeit the little rebound in the last week. Looks like the forecast for strong demand of Zinc to come in the next 10 years as the BRIC countries continue to develop.

Would this be the reason for the rise lately? Maybe some kind of increase in demand of zinc? 

Well looking from a daily graph from May looks like it did form a small cup and handle. The projected price would be around 19.80. Also it is encouraging to see the MACD crossing 2 weeks ago and broken through its all time high.
Very positive signs. Volume looks average though. Technically i am prediciting ZFX to head towards the $20 mark and probably consildates there with slight pull back.

Any thoughts?


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## Kauri (19 June 2007)

hypnotic said:


> Zinifix is searching to fill its top job as Greig Gailey decides to leave early from the company for personal reasons and the board has approved it.
> 
> It is be interesting to see who takes the top job and where he/she decides to take the company.
> 
> ...




<LI class=pub-date>June 06, 2007 *BHP Billiton top executive Chris Lynch will leave the world's biggest miner after missing out on the top job at the company, and could be eying the driving seat at zinc and lead miner Zinifex.*

The group president of carbon steel materials steps down early in the new fiscal year, after Marius Kloppers was last week named BHP Billiton's new chief executive, replacing Chip Goodyear. 
But market sources say Mr Lynch might already have his eye on the chief executive job at Melbourne-based Zinifex, ahead of Greig Gailey's departure later this year.


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## hypnotic (19 June 2007)

Thanks Kauri for the info,

Sounds like all the dates will coincide.

ZFX up strongly at 2.86% so far. 

Hypnotic


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## vishalt (19 June 2007)

surging past its all-time high, as long as zinc prices remain this high zinifex won't stop in my opinion, and with the revenue they're going to raise from listing Umicore is gonna make it all the more sweeter.


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## Kauri (21 June 2007)

Am now using a Moving average as a stop... for no other reason than I am moving house(I hope  ) and will not be able to follow it as closely as I should.
Cheers
Kauri


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## Kauri (27 June 2007)

Well, the last of my open trades is now closed, ZFX has taken out my Moving average stop at $18.55.... ....
.........Cheers
...........Kauri


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## dubiousinfo (5 July 2007)

What does Merrill Lynch have against ZFX ?

From The Australian on 2/7/07



> Zinifex
> Merrill Lynch
> Sell: ($15.50 to $17.50 range pre-asset sale)
> 
> USING comparisons with other miners, notably Canadian lead-zinc play Hudbay, Merrill Lynch has come up with a valuation of the Zinifex mining business worth between $9.50 and $10.50 a share while its smelting assets are worth between $6 and $7 a share. Zinifex is poised to join forces with Belgian materials company Umicore to create pure zinc play Nystar but, instead of retaining a 60 per cent stake in the company, will sell its interest. That will see Zinifex retain its Australian mining assets as well as exploration projects, including Dugald River. "Given that we see little zinc price upside and so no share price upside, we retain our sell recommendation," Merrill Lynch analyst Mike Harrowell told clients





Lets not forget their famous advise from this time last year when ZFX was at $9.91    




> Merrill Lynch rates the stock as Sell, High Risk - The broker, a prominent ZFX-basher, notes quarterly sales were particularly good and it has lifted NPV from $7.65 to $8.15. However, the analysts continue to maintain these zinc prices won''t last more than a year, and that ZFX is a sell down to $6.00.





They just keep digging the hole deeper for themselves.


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## questionall_42 (5 July 2007)

Oxiana acquiring Zinifex - this could prove an interesting development... ... OXR's growth profile mixed with ZFX's cash producing assets... ...



> MELBOURNE (Dow Jones)--5th July
> 
> Australian copper and gold miner Oxiana Ltd. (OXR.AU) is interested in acquiring zinc miner Zinifex Ltd. (ZFX.AU), the Australian Financial Review reports Thursday.
> 
> ...


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## RM8 (5 July 2007)

I wonder how many ZFX shares Merill Lynch has been accumulating during this period?

I'll bet something special it's been more than zero! :


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## Spaghetti (5 July 2007)

Here is another price target

ZinifexLtd - Rosebery Resource Upgrade 

Exploration success has increased the Rosebery resource by 65% to 11.7mt and reserve by 44% to 3.8mt. The increase in resource life to ~16 years is a good start to extending mine life to the targeted 2020+ as it comes only 1 year into the 3 year drilling program. 

Post the smelter spin-off, the major strategic issue confronting Zinifex is short reserve lives of ~5 years at Rosebery and ~8 years at Century. Citi Investment Research (CIR) believe this is being addressed through a multi pronged strategy of life extension at existing mines through exploration, farm-in agreements with Juniors and purchase of Wolfden Resources for advanced stage projects. 

CIR remain bullish on zinc with a price forecast for FY08 of US$2/lb driven by China reverting to being a net importer and a market that is expected to remain in deficit for the next 3 years. 

Zinifex is CIR’s preferred base metal exposure driven by zinc leverage, dividend yield, re-rating upside from the smelter spin-off and potential further mine life extensions from exploration. CIR maintain a Buy (1H) recommendation and A$20/share target price.

http://www.egoli.com.au/egoli/egoli...62CF-4017-AFFD-1A8BD2B1A1E3}&Section=Warrants


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## Love Zn (5 July 2007)

RM8 said:


> I wonder how many ZFX shares Merill Lynch has been accumulating during this period?
> 
> I'll bet something special it's been more than zero! :




Maybe I should contact them and offer to buy their shares at $16-$17 then and sell at todays share price :

Sounds interesting about Oxiana, but I would have thought after the smelter spin off, Zinifex will be cashed up looking for targets, rather than themselves being taken over.


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## Spaghetti (9 July 2007)

Zinifex share price is up 4% today after all the juicy gains last week. Is anything going to stop it?


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## ozambersand (9 July 2007)

$1.10 increase sure is nice.

I am not too sure about the significance of this, but at 16:13 there were 1,000,000 shares traded in a XTSPOS trade @ $21.162.

XT and OS show it was an overseas cross trade SP= Block Special Crossing in an Equity Security/Warrant or Special Crossing in an interest rate security

So it may have just been new warrants issued?

Whoever it was, whatever it was they could have got them a lot cheaper on Friday.


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## michael_selway (9 July 2007)

Spaghetti said:


> Zinifex share price is up 4% today after all the juicy gains last week. Is anything going to stop it?




This might sound strange, evenat current prices PE is only 7, BHP is 13!

*Forecast (cents per share) 
2006 2007 2008 2009 
EPS 219.9 278.9 234.6 175.8 
DPS 80.0 140.0 128.0 83.6 

EPS(c) PE Growth 
Year Ending 30-06-07 278.9 7.2 26.8% 
Year Ending 30-06-08 234.6 8.6 -15.9% *

thx

MS


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## ozambersand (10 July 2007)

I subscribe to FNArena now, so can give this insight into what brokers are saying:

Credit Suisse brokers have changed its classification to Outperform:



> Target $22.50 (was $19.72). Higher commodity price forecasts have seen the broker lift its earnings estimates for the company by 2.6% in FY07 and 4.4% in FY08. This drives the increase in the broker's target price.




This doesn't take into account exchange rate changes and takeover speculation.

Deutsche Bank has taken that into account and says:



> An increase in longer dated commodity price forecasts, offset somewhat by the A$, has led to a target increase from $14.89 to $18.12.




Perilya and Oxiana also have pretty low P/E ratios.

Currently the average target price for Zinifex from 9 brokers is $16.94. Mind you some of them haven't changed their rating of it since December last year! 

Having bought in at $16.60 in February, torn my hair out when it went below $15, sold most of them when it first went back above $18 - it's been a real roller coaster ride.

The share price will be a nice thank you present for Greg Gailey anyway!


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## ozambersand (10 July 2007)

Further to the above post, JP Morgan has just upgraded its target price for Zinifex to ..... $11.00!

Before then it had been consistently posting Sell, Underweight recommendations and target prices for Zinifex in the low $8 - 10 region.

Its investment fund arm obviously listened.

JP Morgan Natural Resources top ten holdings back in August 2006 (according to http://www.moneyweek.com/file/16550/fund-of-the-week-the-manager-who-spots-what-others-miss.htmlwere:

Name of holding                   % of assets

First Quantum Minerals........          2.60
XSTRATA..........................                      2.40
Bema Gold ........................                        1.90
Zinifex .............................                               1.70 
Teck Cominco ...................                     1.60
First Calgary Petroleums .....     1.40
BHP Billiton  .....................                        1.40
Fortescue Metals Group.......       1.30
Rio Tinto     ........... .........                       1.30
Lundin Mining   .......... ......                   1.20

As at 30/4/07 they were:

TOP 10 HOLDINGS
SXR Uranium One ..........2.60% 
Fortescue Metals ..........2.40% 
BHP Billiton ..................2.20% 
First Quantum Minerals ..1.80% 
Kinross Gold .................1.80% 
Yamana Gold ................1.80% 
CVRD ..........................1.80% 
Xstrata .......................1.70% 
Lundin Mining ...............1.50% 
Barrick Gold ..................1.50% 
Total % Holdings .........19.10% 

Maybe they sold Zinifex back in 2006 for $10 and are not happy about it!


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## chops_a_must (13 July 2007)

Finally got back in to this yesterday. And kind of good timing too. Nice, technically safe entry after a confirmed breakout, on the retrace.

Sentiment definitely returning to some base metal stocks, and especially zincers.   ZFX has performed well on down days in zinc, and remained strong despite the AUD. All good signs. Would be hoping for a price (and this is my target) somewhere between 24.50 and 26 in the coming months.

This has been an absolute dolly for a long termer like I have said previously. Should have kept my profit in shares from the previous trades. Oh well, you learn for next time. 

Got my mum into these at about $15 on the sideways move. So she is laughing. Lets hope I can use my brownie points for a good trade on these. 

Cheers,
Chops.

P.S. and well done to all those people patient enough to buy in during that sideways move and wait it out. I admire that. Couldn't do it myself.


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## vishalt (21 July 2007)

Poor performance lately. 

UBS rated to stock $22 but says the recent run was too fast/too hard (but thats typical Zinifex lol). 

I'm just looking to accumulate more.


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## eMark (27 July 2007)

Any comments from the pro's re Zinifex today? Quarterly report wasn't bad. Zinc stockpiles continue to fall. Takeover speculation has died down? The stock today appears to have bounced back nicely from a low of $18.80, looks pretty comfortable in the mid $19 range. Still $2.50 down from it's high, but that's to be expected (mostly die to t/o hype). That's my


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## vishalt (29 July 2007)

its dropping along with everything else in the market. 

zinifex is a "likely" takeover target AFTER the spinning off the assetts with nyrstar


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## chops_a_must (29 July 2007)

vishalt said:


> its dropping along with everything else in the market.
> 
> zinifex is a "likely" takeover target AFTER the spinning off the assetts with nyrstar



I agree.

Especially after they return the money raised to shareholders. Not having to pay up for the value of the smelters makes it look even more attractive right now, in my eyes. Even without a takeover offer, without the smelters it looks good as well, as the money needed for them to be improved and the areas rehabilitated over the coming years wont have to be paid by ZFX.


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## chops_a_must (1 August 2007)

What gets me about these dips of late, which are purely financially related, is that the miners cop it in the neck. Some bank goes broke, and who cops it? Not the bank going broke, but some miner with nothing to do with it. Lol! Damn lemmings. 

Seriously, what do the likes of ZFX and OXR have to do with what's going on? How could a 6% drop be justified?

If this ends up in a crash, I'll just put everything in to stocks like ZFX and live on the dividends. Lol! But it really is quite stupid.


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## uhu (1 August 2007)

Hi!

I just wake up....and I'm a "littlebit" nervous about the drop of ZFX and OXR....awful.
Well, I'm not an aussie citizen, could sbody tell me the latest news? Why these 2 stocks dropped much bigger than BHP or RIO? Something wrong...? What are the aussie brokers saying about Zinifex and Oxiana? 

Thanks.


uhu (owl)


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## UMike (1 August 2007)

Can't tell you why but KZL and CBH dropped very similar amounts.

I'd suggest panic selling as the fundamentals haven't changed much.


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## uhu (1 August 2007)

Thank you...so, ZFX and OXR are not alone...

What type of fundamentals? You mean global finance problems or the financial datas of the two companies? (I've read a lot and in my opinion these two companies are OK., although f.ex. zinc prices will fell a bit in the next year, at least the "clever man" say this)

And, I've read two aussie hedge fund is over. So, I'm just speculating, but what will the other funds do in the future? I'm afraid they will sell a lot of shares, because they don't want to suffer losses...so, it would cause a long depression in the market. 



Well, I can only hope and from here, from the opposite side of this bearish planet.


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## Nicks (9 August 2007)

UMike said:


> Can't tell you why but KZL and CBH dropped very similar amounts.
> 
> I'd suggest panic selling as the fundamentals haven't changed much.




I think because the underlying fundamentals of a stock like CBH (which I got out of) are no where near as strong and proven as ZFX and OXR. These two are big enough and with solid enough fundamentals and size that they will out last the little dips and corrections and out perform in the super cycle which isnt going to go away.
ZFX is an excellent stock, with high dividends and yes exposure to commodities - but this is a good thing for a long time to come. When something is hedged against positive situation, get onto it. Dont wait and hope for the doom and gloom to come so that you can feel good that you didnt get in. The commodities super cycle is exactly that, one massive lasting cycle for finite resources and ever increasing demand, albeit it small flutters and fluctuations. In the lng run though they will outperform.
Stocks like CBH however, have not got the stamina and size to get through unscathed. As soon as it became any decent, someone like OXR or ZFX would just gobble them up - which hasnt happened for a reason.

(all IMO of course).


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## doogie_goes_off (9 August 2007)

With the lead price improving we will see the rise and rise of PEM, OXR, ZFX. Just sit back and watch the dividends roll in.


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## uhu (10 August 2007)

Nicks and doogie,

Thanks your analysies...well, it seems clouds are getting bigger... (-8% one day!)
Now I decide I won't watch my share's prices for a week...I didn't want to get (more) nervous.
And yes, ZFX is the digger of the year...and OXR has a great tp (4.86 AUD) from Credit Suisse...so I (must) hold my positions.


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## Gundini (15 August 2007)

Surely this out of favour stock is becoming oversold...

Down another 8% today...

You would expect long term support @ $15.21 to hold, but the market has taken a beating over the last few weeks and flip a coin when it will end, if it ends...

Rock solid company unfairly punished IMO...


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## YELNATS (15 August 2007)

Gundini said:


> Surely this out of favour stock is becoming oversold...
> 
> Down another 8% today...
> 
> ...




Absolutely. Just took the opportunity to top up at $15.64. Pays a 9% fully franked dividend as well. Can't be bad.


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## finnsk (15 August 2007)

YELNATS said:


> Absolutely. Just took the opportunity to top up at $15.64. Pays a 9% fully franked dividend as well. Can't be bad.




You think that they will be able to pay 70c dividend again this time around?
Will the falling prices of Zink etc not have an impact on there profit then ultimately smaller profit again smaller dividend or will that be next year?


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## Gundini (15 August 2007)

Can't see Zinc prices falling too much more if supply and demand have anything to do with the senario... The last time Zinc inventories were this low was.... ahhh.... never!


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## YELNATS (15 August 2007)

Gundini said:


> Can't see Zinc prices falling too much more if supply and demand have anything to do with the senario... The last time Zinc inventories were this low was.... ahhh.... never!





Another key factor in ZFX's future prospects is the value of the upcoming Nystar deal with Umicore and the subsequent sale via an IPO, as per the Chairmans' remarks from the recent July 26 AGM.


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## Lachlan6 (15 August 2007)

(ZFX) has not escaped the recent market sell off, and it is sitting pretty precariously at the moment at a possible level of support being the 50% retracement level of the June 2006 range to this year's high. It also coincides with an important horizontal support level and cluster of activity earlier this year. Due to the current short term bearishness of the overall market I will certainly not even consider entering ZFX unless it displays a very bullish reversal pattern. 

All bets are off if $14.80 is broken, the next target would then be $13.20. Notice how the OBV has not been affected at all really with the recent sell off, a good sign that the insto's are holding on despite weakness. That to me is a very good fundamental sign of this stock. May prove to be an absolute bargain, but only for the patient.


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## dubiousinfo (15 August 2007)

The SP has certainly taken a bashing.

Due to report soon and with the current share price I am expecting ZFX to show a PE of around 3.5.  Also a dividend in excess of $1.00 would not surprise.

Will look to get back into this, once things settle down.


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## toothfairy (16 August 2007)

Zfx is riding the roller coaster today, was the announcement that important or is it turning around?


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## uhu (16 August 2007)

What announcement?

Huh...It was 13.92 at after midnight...I am lucky because I didn't see it...
Anyway, I am a bit confused. I waited more drop following Dow Jones (see the chart Teck C, Freeport, BHP in NY etc....so, aussie people now understand nothing problem with this firm? No credit but a lot of cashflow!
I think it would be fine if some analysts warm the merger story between ZFX and OXR to hold the price above 15-16 AUD.


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## Rafa (16 August 2007)

no the announcement came out hours before...

i was watching it, it got smashed... but its done a 1.50 turnaround...
why didn't i buy it at 14


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## Love Zn (16 August 2007)

The announcement had no effect on ZFX and you wouldn't expect them to, announcement came out in the morning and it was panic selling, stop losses being triggered, etc causing it's fall.

The recovery at the end was possibly bargin hunters coming in, that know that ZFX are due to announce annual returns on the 23rd August and will be looking for a dividend of around $0.70-$1.00.  We could still see this SP falling, we need the market confidence to turn around first.

In the mean time, put options have been doing well, but you could say that with any share at the moment.


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## toothfairy (16 August 2007)

Did anyone buy/sell/short this share today @ around $14. I am eager to buy soon knowing the good fundamentals, but just that POZ is not playing ball atm. Zn stock is depleting steadily (albeit slowly) but POZ has gone back to the level of like May 06 when SP of Zfx was only around $12. Hard decision, may be I'll wait after the dust has settled. 
Tonight at this stage prices of base metals and world stock markets are going south some more.


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## DionM (16 August 2007)

I bought a small parcel at $14.70ish today.  Paniced a bit when it slid further to $14, but it came up again nicely at close.

I am in for the long term; had been eyeing it off but just waiting for a time to buy.


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## Freddy I (17 August 2007)

ZFX has a dividend yield of about 12 at current price.
Im a bit of a novice but that seems pretty handy to me.

I havent seen a div yield on blue chip stock that high since QAN was at $3.

Would love your comments....


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## JMcDog (17 August 2007)

Yes the dividend yield and "no debt" status of this company attracted me to pick up a few yesterday at $14-40.  In fact I sold 2 of my more speculative Ni shares (incurring a loss of 30%) and used the funds to enter this stock which was also at least 30% off its recent highs.... I guess I reason that I'm in the same boat (financially) but now holding a less speculative stock, with a great dividend yield, and perhaps with the potential to recover faster at some time in the future.  MAYBE less downside than the speccies too...  but in this market who knows?  The M&A potential also a minor consideration.

Cheers,  MF


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## drmb (19 August 2007)

With the drop in the AUD this below may even out anyway - 

Miningmag, Aug 18 2007 11:05PM - Zinifex, Umicore may get less for smelters - Zinifex Ltd, the world`s third-largest zinc producer, and Umicore SA may raise as much as 13% less from the initial public offering of their smelters after a global rout in equity markets, Credit Suisse Group said. 

The planned IPO of Nyrstar, a joint venture between Melbourne-based Zinifex and Brussels-based Umicore, may raise between A$1.8 billion (US$1.4 billion) and A$2 billion, analysts Peter O`Connor and Pablo Kohen said in a report. That compares with their July forecast of A$2 billion to A$2.1 billion. 

Global equity markets have fallen this week on deepening concern a global credit crunch will sap earnings and erode economic growth. Asian stocks on Thursday had their-biggest two-day drop since June 2006. 

Zinifex has fallen 27% this month in Sydney trading and zinc prices have declined 15%. The latest date for an IPO lodgment for a share sale before Christmas is November 12, Credit Suisse said. Should that deadline pass, the deal will roll over to some time in second quarter of 2008, the report said.


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## uhu (20 August 2007)

Everybody wait a great rebound after the USA event. Freeport lifted 5,24%, Teck 3,22%, BHP 4,84%. I think miners in Australia will follow this trend....so, the open price will be (would be...must be!!) around 15.30. 

And: How can the weaker AUD influence the price of ZFX? Normally, weak currency helps export so it's good for exporting companies like Zinifex...but...but

But, I have an other question. How much is the rate of international investors in aussie market? (For ex. 60-80% in Hungary). So, if AUD will getting more and more weaker...declining won't be good for investors from USA...so, this impact can influence ZFX prices again.

What is good for ZFX? Weaker or stronger AUD?

Well, I am a bit confused...if my post also, sorry


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## adobee (20 August 2007)

I have trippled my holdings of zfx this morning at $15 (should have bought on friday but had no balls!) and look forward to Mondays end of year results.. Will the dividend be annouced within these results.. ?


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## gfresh (20 August 2007)

Profits announced Monday 27th.. says so in the release they issued this morning. 

--
20 August 2007
Full Year Financial Results – Clarification of release date
Zinifex wishes to clarify some confusion surrounding the release date of its
Full Year Financial Results.
The Results will be released to market on Monday 27 August 2007.


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## adobee (27 August 2007)

Zinifex delivers a record profit..
Net Profit $1,335 million a 24% increase
Productionlower 5% on previous year due to maintenance
Cash Inflows of $1586 million
70c Dividend fully franked total for 2007 $1.40 per share fully franked


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## uhu (28 August 2007)

Hm. I am courious about what will Zinifex do with this large profit.
Well, I am a smallinvestor, so I would have to be happy because the great dividend.

But.
Probably I woulg gain more than 70c per share if the management wants to acquire an other company or two. A large part of the profit will be paid for dividends...I think the rest of profit will not be enough. 

Production is less than last year. I don t have informations about the tunisien, swedish projects...are these large ones or can t influance production of ZFX too much? And waht's with Nunavut?
So, have you got info's about it?


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## toothfairy (6 September 2007)

Last time back in April 06 when POZ was @ around $1.30, ZFX SP was about $9, now it is close to $17. Why should it be such a difference? ZFX over priced?


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## adobee (6 September 2007)

If ZFX was $9 the dividend would be round 15% full franked ?!
If anything ZFX is cheap .. 

Are you trust trying to spruil poz ?!


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## resourcesman (6 September 2007)

15% dividends doesnt mean much in this situation, because expected mine life for Century is only a few years... after that the profits would drop unless they find something else to replace it


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## vishalt (6 September 2007)

Hopefully their acquisitions/ventures like Wolfen find stuff. 

ZFX's P/E ratio is only 6 I think, such cheap valuation and even more cash out of Nyrstar.


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## rederob (6 September 2007)

resourcesman said:


> 15% dividends doesnt mean much in this situation, because expected mine life for Century is only a few years... after that the profits would drop unless they find something else to replace it



I suggest you have a read of their recent reports.
Roseberry has about 3 years, Century about 10 years, and Dugald at least 15 years once it's up and running.


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## toothfairy (6 September 2007)

adobee said:


> If ZFX was $9 the dividend would be round 15% full franked ?!
> If anything ZFX is cheap ..
> 
> Are you trust trying to spruil poz ?!




ZFX was cheap @ $9 and is not cheap @ $16. May be reasonable price should be $13 @ the present POZ. I won't be surprised if POZ hits $1.
What do you mean by the last sentence?
Cheers.


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## Spaghetti (6 September 2007)

Hard to put a value as they are not a full on mining company. When the smelting business is gone then yes do try to value as a miner. I have read, but have no clue to be honest, that the smelting business will be worth more per share separated than as a part of Zinifex. So happy days ahead.


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## YELNATS (6 September 2007)

toothfairy said:


> ZFX was cheap @ $9 and is not cheap @ $16. May be reasonable price should be $13 @ the present POZ. I won't be surprised if POZ hits $1.
> Cheers.




Attempted downramping but it won't work with a large cap resource company. Suggest you read latest publications by ZFX as to their strategies for the future. regards YN.


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## toothfairy (6 September 2007)

YELNATS said:


> Attempted downramping but it won't work with a large cap resource company. Suggest you read latest publications by ZFX as to their strategies for the future. regards YN.



Thank you, but I know this company more than any other ASX Co already.
I have been trading in and out of it for 2 years, quite successfully.
I don't want to down ramp it as I still have some shares in it, just comparing some figures that's all.
I know there are some strategies up their sleeves, but none more dependent than POZ. (They actually publish graphs to correlate their profits to POZ!). All the other strategies are semi-speculative, but mostly ALSO dependent on POZ.
Cheers.


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## YELNATS (6 September 2007)

toothfairy said:


> Thank you, but I know this company more than any other ASX Co already.
> I have been trading in and out of it for 2 years, quite successfully.
> I don't want to down ramp it as I still have some shares in it, just comparing some figures that's all.
> I know there are some strategies up their sleeves, but none more dependent than POZ. (They actually publish graphs to correlate their profits to POZ!). All the other strategies are semi-speculative, but mostly ALSO dependent on POZ.
> Cheers.





I guess it all depends on your outlook on things. On the pessimism-optimism spectrum, I tend to be up the optimist end. I feel confident about ZFX, particularly as they have done well for me in the past and have a solid business plan for the future. regards YN.


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## reece55 (8 September 2007)

There appear to be some pretty ominous signs here for Zinifex in my humble opinion.......

The one thing I have to continually remind myself, especially in a numbers based job, is that fundamentals always lag the market - ZFX has fantastic numbers, but for whatever reason, there is a dark cloud over this stock.

On a daily view, unlike BHP and RIO that have gone on to get close (or in the case of BHP, 1 cent away) to the highs pre the sub prime jitters, ZFX's rally was  light. The 200 dMA that was pierced appears now to be acting as dynamic resistance and all of MA's are pointing down - this looks IMO to be the formation of a major downtrend.

But, the biggest issue here is the magnificent trendline established back at the beginning of this run that turned ZFX into a 1,000 % in 2 years stock appears broken and a full 5 wave count appears to have played out..... 

All in all, looks like a short to me - it's been a magnificent stock to watch, but margin wise, this beast is as sensitive as they get.

Cheers


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## gfresh (9 September 2007)

Many, maybe even the majority of stocks out there at the moment are exhibiting a similar pattern however after the recent correction, and there is still more to come. 

I would expect some retractment, but with over $1bn profit (and similar forecast for next year), and some further developments in the pipeline, does not make a stock that will continue a downward slide for too long, unless any negative news comes out to push things differently.

That top, of $21 also was strongly based on takeover rumours that never eventuated, and not 'normal' sp movements. If you take that out somewhat, and that massive dip during the correction, a price around the $17 marks seems average, and in fact your 200 MA shows this. 

You mention BHP and RIO as comparisons, however these stocks now are also sparked with takeover activities, leading to peaks in these stocks, just as ZFX was a month ago. 

However I will say on a purely T/A perspective, the chart would definitely indicate what you are saying.. IMO (only) charting at the moment is a little uncertain during times of such great volatility.


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## uhu (11 September 2007)

Well,

Do you have informations about why the Nyrstar project is better than a simple merger between ZFX and Umicore?
Papers say ZFX would like to concentrate to mining after giving smelting business to Nyrstar.

????

Nyrstar is owned by ZFX and the CEO of Nyrstar will be one of the ZFX bosses...so I dont understand the above logic.


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## vishalt (11 September 2007)

no. 

Umicore & Zinifex both own Nyrstar, the board of Nyrstar comprises of a board of directors - equally from both Umicore and Zinifex. 

Zinifex is going fine in the short-term.. it needs to find some mines quick as the current ones wont last long, or a merger between Oxiana and Zinifex is the way to go.


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## uhu (12 September 2007)

Hi Vishalt,

Yes, I see you and I agree with you.
My question was (would have been):

Why do Unicore and ZFX need a new company (nyrstar) to cooperate? 

thanks


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## vishalt (12 September 2007)

I believe its basically a way to raise money lol, transfer the smelting business to Nyrstar (with Umicore) and retain yourself as a pure Zinc play.


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## Nicks (12 September 2007)

All I know is that at this price and with a 70c div coming up, its a bargain imo. Demand will continue from Chindia, it is making bucketloads on its own, or it is going to get taken over. Either way I grabbed some more.


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## bergers_n_fries (12 September 2007)

hello everyone...ive recently discovered this forum and i must say i am very impressed by it all and the knowledge conveyed.

with that said i have a few grand to throw around a bit and i was wondering if zfx was the way to go??

considering its high dividend value in comparison to its share price would that mean anything positive???

forgive me if i am a little off the mark as i have only recently solidly followed the markets due to me doing the normal young student thing of spending all my money on clothes and going out...

cheers in advance and i look forward to your opinions

dan


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## vishalt (12 September 2007)

ZFX is a high-risk stock though. 

It makes a lot of money right now, and is attractive for a takeover - BUT, thats all speculation, realistically its mines have very low lives (5-15 years I think, Roseberry is not far from expiry), as opposed to BHP/RIO which have heaps of mines that have lifespans of a century. They also have a massive cash sheet to make acquisitions/ventures.

Personally if I was just starting to invest I'd go with any of the bank stocks, or with BHP/Rio.


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## bergers_n_fries (13 September 2007)

what i meant to include was that i already have bhp, wdc and amp (the last two since i was alot younger and bhp as of last week)

zfx will act as my speculative/riskier share...

have they found anymore sustainable mines???

as i understand the smelting operation with another miner would create increased revenue???

and why is the dividend much higher than most considering the price of the share at this present time???

cheers


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## Nicks (13 September 2007)

vishalt said:


> ZFX is a high-risk stock though.
> 
> It makes a lot of money right now, and is attractive for a takeover - BUT, thats all speculation, realistically its mines have very low lives (5-15 years I think, Roseberry is not far from expiry), as opposed to BHP/RIO which have heaps of mines that have lifespans of a century. They also have a massive cash sheet to make acquisitions/ventures.
> 
> Personally if I was just starting to invest I'd go with any of the bank stocks, or with BHP/Rio.




Yes but 5-15 yrs @ 1.40+ pa dividend pays for its capital outlay. Add to that prospective capital gains from an astute management through utilising the companies experience to explore, open, buy new mines and any prospective aquisitions and deals then you have a Fantastic Stock with Fantastic Opporunity.

Burger Man - given your exisiting portfolio of solid stocks I think you are on the mark and this would make an excellent aquisition for your portfolio. Get in quick before the SP jumps back up to high teens in anticipation of the coming 70c dividend - and you'll get both (the 70c dividend and the SP appreciation).

Good luck and don't eat too many fries wth your whopper.


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## adobee (13 September 2007)

I think Nicks has hit the nail on the head here.. not much else that can be said..                        .


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## michael_selway (13 September 2007)

Nicks said:


> Yes but 5-15 yrs @ 1.40+ pa dividend pays for its capital outlay. Add to that prospective capital gains from an astute management through utilising the companies experience to explore, open, buy new mines and any prospective aquisitions and deals then you have a Fantastic Stock with Fantastic Opporunity.
> 
> Burger Man - given your exisiting portfolio of solid stocks I think you are on the mark and this would make an excellent aquisition for your portfolio. Get in quick before the SP jumps back up to high teens in anticipation of the coming 70c dividend - and you'll get both (the 70c dividend and the SP appreciation).
> 
> Good luck and don't eat too many fries wth your whopper.




Hi Nicks, what makes you think its $1.40pa dividend for the next 15 years?

*Earnings and Dividends Forecast (cents per share) 
2007 2008 2009 2010 
EPS 274.1 233.0 174.2 116.1 
DPS 140.0 125.0 86.0 60.0 

EPS(c) PE Growth 
Year Ending 30-06-08 233.0 6.7 -15.0% 
Year Ending 30-06-09 174.2 9.0 -25.2% *

Thanks

MS


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## rederob (13 September 2007)

michael_selway said:


> Hi Nicks, what makes you think its $1.40pa dividend for the next 15 years?
> 
> *Earnings and Dividends Forecast (cents per share)
> 2007 2008 2009 2010
> ...



MS
I admit to being wearied by your regurgitation of Comsec forecast earnings.
These forecasts have been regularly wrong by several hundred percent in recent years for various minerals producers.
Do you have some original thoughts?
Just remember that zinc warehouse levels are at about 10% of their levels from around 5 years ago.
Also note that the present inventory trend remains relatively flat, despite zinc prices dipping sharply in recent months.
Zinc is quite unspectacular now, and may remain so.
However, it is much too soon to discount further upside - and not simply a dead cat bounce!


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## GREENS (14 September 2007)

rederob said:


> MS
> I admit to being wearied by your regurgitation of Comsec forecast earnings.
> These forecasts have been regularly wrong by several hundred percent in recent years for various minerals producers.
> Do you have some original thoughts?
> ...





Red I would be quite interested to hear your thoughts on Zinc at the moment (both ST and LT), cancelled warrants aren’t looking to healthy, metal inflows are becoming more frequent and in larger quantities and China is a net Exporter. ST not looking so good, but what has me dumfound is that inventories had slowly declined over the past 3-4 months (are still near their lowest levels), and Zn price has not reacted, yet as soon as we saw some metal inflow into the markets, the markets reacted very efficiently to the news, any thoughts on why this might be the case?  

In regards to Zinc stocks, I can now see why you favoured KZL as your zinc exposure, after doing some major research on all the zinc miners over the past 6 months.

Cheers Greens


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## Nicks (14 September 2007)

MS, agree with Red, looks like a cut and paste out of Etrade. I must admit my 140c pa was just an expectation of the returns it is currently giving, but I actually will be expecting an INCREASE (ie more than 140c pa), as no doubt the market is, hence the SHARE PRICE reflecting expectation of future income streams, eps and dps.

Those figures you cut and paste assumes status quo. Check out what ZFX is doing and I think you will agree that it wont remain status quo.


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## michael_selway (14 September 2007)

Nicks said:


> MS, agree with Red, looks like a cut and paste out of Etrade. I must admit my 140c pa was just an expectation of the returns it is currently giving, but I actually will be expecting an INCREASE (ie more than 140c pa), as no doubt the market is, hence the SHARE PRICE reflecting expectation of future income streams, eps and dps.
> 
> Those figures you cut and paste assumes status quo. Check out what ZFX is doing and I think you will agree that it wont remain status quo.




If Zinc Price increase, then yes EPS & DPS, will increase

So you think Zinc price wont decrease over the next few years i guess?

Thanks

MS


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## rederob (14 September 2007)

GREENS said:


> Red I would be quite interested to hear your thoughts on Zinc at the moment (both ST and LT), cancelled warrants aren’t looking to healthy, metal inflows are becoming more frequent and in larger quantities and China is a net Exporter. ST not looking so good, but what has me dumfound is that inventories had slowly declined over the past 3-4 months (are still near their lowest levels), and Zn price has not reacted, yet as soon as we saw some metal inflow into the markets, the markets reacted very efficiently to the news, any thoughts on why this might be the case?
> 
> In regards to Zinc stocks, I can now see why you favoured KZL as your zinc exposure, after doing some major research on all the zinc miners over the past 6 months.
> 
> Cheers Greens



GREENS
Zinc has lost its market darling status.
China is churning out more zinc than many expected, sooner than expected.
However, it begs the question of warehouse inventories at SHFE and LME being relatively static for a good while now.
Clearly if iron ore is being consumed by China at ever increasing quantities then a proportion of extra zinc will be needed over and above present demand.
But if we see supply more than compensating then it might be game over.
Right now I reckon it's a waiting game.
The technicals for zinc are poor, and the fundamentals do not look flash.
But they said that of copper last year, too.
And who was right?

by the way, KZL will do well because it's knocking out more and more copper


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## bigdog (15 September 2007)

http://www.fnarena.com/index2.cfm?type=dsp_newsitem&n=01D63DF8-17A4-1130-F542535936BCB82E

*Zinifex A Dividend Stripping Candidate*
FN Arena News - September 14 2007

By Chris Shaw

Dividend stripping has been a popular strategy among income seeking investors for some time but until recently it was primarily confined to the major banks given the above market yields they offered.

But with the ongoing surge in commodity prices companies in the mining sector are now coming to the party and using their significant cash flows to deliver solid dividends to shareholders, a prime example being zinc miner Zinifex (ZFX).

The warrants team at ABN Amro sees scope for the stock to be an attractive dividend play leading into the stock going ex-dividend a fully franked 70c on October 30, a payout that represents a yield of 4.4% on this one dividend alone.

The broker points out there are currently 47 days until the ex-date, meaning the 45-day holding rule for taking advantage of franking credits is satisfied and with the stock having recently pulled back from highs of around $21.00 the shares appear reasonable value.

A look at the long-term chart of the stock supports the broker’s view the play has potential as the shares remain in a long-term uptrend and it has done well as a dividend play on both of its last two payouts. The stock is also trading below the broker’s valuation of $16.49, which is around 15% below its target price of $18.50.


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## GREENS (15 September 2007)

rederob said:


> GREENS
> Zinc has lost its market darling status.
> China is churning out more zinc than many expected, sooner than expected.
> However, it begs the question of warehouse inventories at SHFE and LME being relatively static for a good while now.
> ...




Cheers Red your thoughts are much appreciated and informative, as always. Cancelled warrants looking a little healthier the past two days now above the 12,000t mark, but nothing to get too excited about just quite yet. 

Exactly, KZL full year production should around 20-25kt of Cu, which will be very handy for the bottom line, but just as importantly I was referring to their low cash cost/lb of Zn. There margins are quite healthy compared to their peers, and the company seems to be very well managed. In addition they have exposure to fairly substantial Gold (Red Dome) and nickel reserves which could become handy in furutre years.


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## Fab (16 September 2007)

ZFX looks like a good buy at the moment at current price. I am looking at leveraging into it in the short term. I am wondering how it looks technically, my technical analysis is not that great. Also what is the potential impact on its share price of a drop in rate or a housing slowdown in the US.

As per mentioned above the current share price is below abn recommended price and it can be a good dividend strip


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## Nyden (16 September 2007)

Do Zinifex have a DRP? If so, do they offer any discount off of market price?

Darn, not 100 words


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## Nicks (27 September 2007)

bergers_n_fries said:


> what i meant to include was that i already have bhp, wdc and amp (the last two since i was alot younger and bhp as of last week)
> 
> zfx will act as my speculative/riskier share...
> 
> ...





So Berger King, did you get in on ZFX as you were thinking? you'd be pretty happy with your decision about now i'd expect.


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## Nyden (28 September 2007)

Am surprised it dropped 1.56% today, zinc prices rose afterall. Perhaps some profit-taking? Guess it couldn't keep up that 2-3% rise a day forever


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## uhu (29 September 2007)

Well, some miners lost 1-2% friday in Europe and US. For ex. Umicore -1,4, Freeport -1,8...and it would have bigger if markets didn t close...so I think correction will continue at the beginning of the next week.
But! I think too it's normal....after about 14% gain in 2-3 weeks...


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## roland (4 October 2007)

Looks like zinc is getting back it's shiny lustre. The run up to dividend date should help as well.

LME wharehouse stocks are quite low as well.


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## roland (11 October 2007)

Great close on Zinifex today. Pre-Close 18.65, close at 18.78. Should do a good run up as ex div gets closer. Assuming the LME Zn price doesn't go hay wire


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## uhu (12 October 2007)

Yes, it was not bad.
But, if we compare ZFX (and other aussie miners) with american ones (Freeport, Teck, Southern Copper -i know, it's latin-american), growth was week - I have waited at least 2%.

So, anyone have infos about why was (is) it?


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## roland (12 October 2007)

Personally, I think ZFX having sold it's smelting business has reduced the value of the company. There appears that a surplus of Zn will reduce prices. The surplus also increases the cost of smelting ... not sure why, but Kitco reports that smelting costs are to increase.

Zinifex needs a good discovery with Drake to grab some more attention. The high dividend yield keeps people around, but I understand that the yield is likely to be hard to maintain.

I wonder if ZFX sharholders will get in on the Nyrstar IPO ???


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## vishalt (12 October 2007)

roland said:


> Personally, I think ZFX having sold it's smelting business has reduced the value of the company. There appears that a surplus of Zn will reduce prices. The surplus also increases the cost of smelting ... not sure why, but Kitco reports that smelting costs are to increase.
> 
> Zinifex needs a good discovery with Drake to grab some more attention. The high dividend yield keeps people around, but I understand that the yield is likely to be hard to maintain.
> 
> I wonder if ZFX sharholders will get in on the Nyrstar IPO ???




I don't see many individual investors going out of their way to create a European trading account to buy Nyrstar to be honest. 

Selling the smelting business reduced the value yeah, but Zinifex can't be in a more perfect position at the moment.

It's making a very attractive takeover target by a global carnivore like BHP, Teck Cominco, Xstrate, AA, CVRD or even Oxiana - and even if nothing happens for a while Zinifex can skyrocket if it discovers a big mine.


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## roland (12 October 2007)

vishalt said:


> I don't see many individual investors going out of their way to create a European trading account to buy Nyrstar to be honest.
> 
> So, Nyrstar won't be listed on the ASX???? That would be a real shame ....
> 
> ...




Zinifex has been the jewel in my crown of long term holdings and I have been dismayed with the recent broker downgrades and the propects of lesser dividend potential - Really looking for some good news!!


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## vishalt (12 October 2007)

Yeah Zinifex used to be a big part of my portfolio till the sub-prime meltdown caused a flight to big cap stocks. 

I can still remember when it was consolidating @ $9 and giving out that huge 70c dividend at just $13!


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## michael_selway (13 October 2007)

vishalt said:


> I don't see many individual investors going out of their way to create a European trading account to buy Nyrstar to be honest.
> 
> Selling the smelting business reduced the value yeah, but Zinifex can't be in a more perfect position at the moment.
> 
> It's making a very attractive takeover target by a global carnivore like BHP, Teck Cominco, Xstrate, AA, CVRD or even Oxiana - and even if nothing happens for a while Zinifex can skyrocket if it discovers a big mine.




Its still nod bad

*Earnings and Dividends Forecast (cents per share) 
2007 2008 2009 2010 
EPS 274.1 233.8 174.2 119.2 
DPS 140.0 130.0 100.0 60.0 *







thx

MS


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## vishalt (13 October 2007)

How is it "still not bad"? 

If you're going by those Commsec forecasts - the profit/dividend expectations are going downstairs... not up. 

What I don't get it how all analysts are predicting an over-supply of Zinc yet the stocks at the LME have almost halved in several months, it makes no sense really. 

Anyway after thinking a bit more about Zinifex being in a perfect position - its mines don't have a long life span. There's only 4, they're all Zinc with some lead/silver production, and the life-span is very low, Century is the only decent mine but certainly nothing compared to the assets the big cap diversified companies own. 

So what's the point of merging or taking over Zinifex if it won't add long-term value?

So unless Zinifex makes a big discovery in the next 2-3 years (if it doesn't get taken over by then) I wouldn't be touching this thing with a 50 foot pole!

Huge risk stock at the moment so this'll be an interesting story!


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## uhu (13 October 2007)

vishalt said:


> How is it "still not bad"?
> 
> If you're going by those Commsec forecasts - the profit/dividend expectations are going downstairs... not up.
> 
> ...






Zinifex's CEO or an other boss said in the last week they want to acquire a copper miner, so, if this will go, ZFX won't be a one-metal-miner (yes, there is lead also now, I know).
And there is the Nunavut project f.e.


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## vishalt (13 October 2007)

uhu said:


> Zinifex's CEO or an other boss said in the last week they want to acquire a copper miner, so, if this will go, ZFX won't be a one-metal-miner (yes, there is lead also now, I know).
> And there is the Nunavut project f.e.




Where does it say Zinifex wants to acquire a copper miner? Please link me as I can't track it in the latest press releases. 

Anyway for those interested, Zinifex has a really nice website outlining their projects - http://www.zinifex.com/what_we_do/expdevMap.aspx. A lot of them are still in feasibility/study phases but geez they have a lot of potential to find some treasure somewhere.


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## uhu (13 October 2007)

vishalt said:


> Where does it say Zinifex wants to acquire a copper miner? Please link me as I can't track it in the latest press releases.
> 
> Anyway for those interested, Zinifex has a really nice website outlining their projects - http://www.zinifex.com/what_we_do/expdevMap.aspx. A lot of them are still in feasibility/study phases but geez they have a lot of potential to find some treasure somewhere.




For example:

http://www.smh.com.au/news/business...quisition-trail/2007/10/04/1191091276471.html

But I have read it an other article first. And this other one said ZFX wants to enter the gold sector also...
Gold....copper...what can it be? Oxiana maybe? They say they search smaller companies....but (????)

use goggle news...


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## BankRoller (13 October 2007)

Some interesting news and snippets wrt to PNA, OXR and ZFX

Interesting quote in the media recently with respect to Oxiana, ZFX and PNA. All mentioned in the one breath. "Miner Oxiana gained 5c to $3.79 after negotiations for a merger with Zinifex reportedly stalled. Zinifex dropped 11c to $18.29. Pan Australian Resources, which is developing a copper and gold mine in Laos, added 1.5c to 81c. Pan Australian was rated "outperform" in new coverage by RBC Capital Markets analyst Paul Young, who set a price target of $1.10 on the shares." - Resources bounce leads market gain - SMH Oct 6th '07.

Another media release:
"Zinifex said it was targeting mid-tier copper assets which contained at least 1 million tonnes of metal for an annual production rate of 100,000 tonnes a year." - Zinifex out to conquer new territory - The Age Oct 5th '07.

We can see from recent media releases that ZFX is after a Copper producer, so if OXR has fallen through. Who is next??? Just trying to put two and two together with these recent media releases.

Any other thoughts?


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## uhu (18 October 2007)

Hey, aussies,

Well, I would like some information...I can't have so much in Hungary.

I have read some investors dissapointed bacause the Nyrstar IPO, so, that's why ZFX's price fall from the end of the lest week (plus bad news from US).

So, have you got some info's about other reasons?


Thanx

Sorry, my English is not correct, I know, I try...


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## Nyden (18 October 2007)

uhu said:


> Hey, aussies,
> 
> Well, I would like some information...I can't have so much in Hungary.
> 
> ...




To simplify - a lot of resource stocks have gone down; because the price of base metals has dropped quite considerably. We're having a bad week, obviously 

Reasons, well - negative news I guess



Edit:

To be honest though - I see this Nystar issue as a great opportunity - if the announcement comes on what price / amount they managed to sell it for, comes out fantastic - that will push the price up quite well imo. If there's a surplus of cash - higher dividend for next year. They'll also apparently be using this 1b+ to buy into copper; thus diversifying their holdings.

I believe the last week of October could be a fantastic week for the SP - with not only the information on the Nystar IPO being released; but also the fact that many folks will be buying in for the div.


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## drmb (18 October 2007)

uhu said:


> Hey, aussies, Well, I would like some information...I can't have so much in Hungary. I have read some investors dissapointed bacause the Nyrstar IPO, so, that's why ZFX's price fall from the end of the lest week (plus bad news from US). So, have you got some info's about other reasons? Thanx Sorry, my English is not correct, I know, I try...




Your English is not so bad! It's a very forgiving language. Put www.kitcometals.com on your favourites and watch base metal and U prices. Also see http://www.reuters.com/article/marketsNews/idUKL178840320071017?rpc=44 for reasons for fall in zinc and lead stocks. These miners and producers are very volatile, treat them with care!


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## Brengun (18 October 2007)

There is only one real reason why ZFX shareprice dropped by $1 in a few days and that is because I bought a couple.


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## roland (18 October 2007)

Ahhh, Zinifex - both the joy and the disappointment in my life

I have a ton of these babies, after near on 200 trades in the last 3 years I must say I have never lost. Although my holdings are not looking so right now, my strategy is to hold and keep buying as it falls - worst case is that you will get more dividends - these guys are one of the top 10 dividend yield stocks on the market - so no panic for me.

As for Nyrstar ... well, as suggested, being cashed is a good place to be, more money for exploration, more money for dividends 

.... and then, there are always those takeover rumours ....


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## uhu (19 October 2007)

takeover...

Yes, I have choosen ZFX an OXR not only because both of them are good stocks, but a lot of newspaper have been writing about the possible merger. I think a lot of people are waiting for this...

And, I am courious what for. ex. BHP, Rio or other giants will do the lot os cash...

Well, Rio has Alcan...but there is Freeport, Xs...(the swiss) and others....so I think there will be more mergers or acquisitions in the middle-term future.

Anyway, yes, most of analysts claim zinc will fall in the near-term future, and, there will be surplus in the next 3 years.

But.

These analysts underestimate the growth of SE and E-Asia. Who thought 20 years ago that a more than 10% GDP growth is beleiveble....for 20 or more years.
And an other boom is coming. Yes, chinese (indian, etc) people want own car...so steel...so copper, zinc..

So, I am a bit disappointed, but not pessimistic....and I beleive aussie dollar also, for me (non-aussie investor) this is also an important factor.

Does anyone know why ZFX chose Umicore?


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## roland (24 October 2007)

Ho hum, Zinifex is going to give me ulcers - I'm almost certain of it. I have 100 grand tied up in this little doggy just hanging out for the dividends. 

After the last few weeks, I am starting to get pessimistic about the ex div run up in SP - I feel so silly about not selling out at $21, or even the numerous times when I could have pulled decent profit.

Having said that, it is very hard to hold a grudge - I have traded this stock around 200 times in 3 years and have made a bucket. But the shine really has come off Zinifex for me.

Well, I'll hold and continue buying at $17 or below - at least until ex div. Any other ZFX holders feeling dismayed??????


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## Nyden (24 October 2007)

roland said:


> Ho hum, Zinifex is going to give me ulcers - I'm almost certain of it. I have 100 grand tied up in this little doggy just hanging out for the dividends.
> 
> After the last few weeks, I am starting to get pessimistic about the ex div run up in SP - I feel so silly about not selling out at $21, or even the numerous times when I could have pulled decent profit.
> 
> ...




Exdiv isn't all you have to look forward to though - On the 29th we find out what price the Nystar IPO went out for; now, I guess if it turns out demand was higher than expected ; all of that cash flow will push the SP higher (hopefully!) as ZFX begin searching for copper sights to buy out.

Zinc may be dogging it at the moment, but lead has been rather hot lately.


----------



## BankRoller (24 October 2007)

yep indeed the 29th presents as an important day for zfx. however, I'm more keen to ponder on the copper co. zfx have their eyes on. OXR is an obvious target, but PNA?? does neone have thoughts??


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## roland (24 October 2007)

BankRoller said:


> yep indeed the 29th presents as an important day for zfx. however, I'm more keen to ponder on the copper co. zfx have their eyes on. OXR is an obvious target, but PNA?? does neone have thoughts??




Hi, I didn't see any news on ZFX hunting for a t/o target, I thought the more likely option was that ZFX was the takeover target. Do you have some reference for this?


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## Nyden (24 October 2007)

roland said:


> Hi, I didn't see any news on ZFX hunting for a t/o target, I thought the more likely option was that ZFX was the takeover target. Do you have some reference for this?




Err, I shall have to look 

Well, it's been known for a while that ZFX has intentions on acquiring some copper holdings - and with this new lot of cash flow coming in; this represents both that, and some excess of cash to go to the next dividend

I'm sure you can find all this out by typing in zinifex into the google news search; I'm too tired at the moment


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## BankRoller (24 October 2007)

Some interesting news and snippets wrt to PNA, OXR and ZFX

Interesting quote in the media recently with respect to Oxiana, ZFX and PNA. All mentioned in the one breath. "Miner Oxiana gained 5c to $3.79 after negotiations for a merger with Zinifex reportedly stalled. Zinifex dropped 11c to $18.29. Pan Australian Resources, which is developing a copper and gold mine in Laos, added 1.5c to 81c. Pan Australian was rated "outperform" in new coverage by RBC Capital Markets analyst Paul Young, who set a price target of $1.10 on the shares." - Resources bounce leads market gain - SMH Oct 6th '07.

Another media release:
"Zinifex said it was targeting mid-tier copper assets which contained at least 1 million tonnes of metal for an annual production rate of 100,000 tonnes a year." - Zinifex out to conquer new territory - The Age Oct 5th '07.

We can see from recent media releases that ZFX is after a Copper producer, so if OXR has fallen through. Who is next??? Just trying to put two and two together with these recent media releases.

refer to my post number 1736 and other threads near that time


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## roland (24 October 2007)

BankRoller said:


> Some interesting news and snippets wrt to PNA, OXR and ZFX
> 
> Interesting quote in the media recently with respect to Oxiana, ZFX and PNA. All mentioned in the one breath. "Miner Oxiana gained 5c to $3.79 after negotiations for a merger with Zinifex reportedly stalled. Zinifex dropped 11c to $18.29. Pan Australian Resources, which is developing a copper and gold mine in Laos, added 1.5c to 81c. Pan Australian was rated "outperform" in new coverage by RBC Capital Markets analyst Paul Young, who set a price target of $1.10 on the shares." - Resources bounce leads market gain - SMH Oct 6th '07.
> 
> ...




Thanks for that BR, gives me some renewed confidence. I suppose the Nyrstar deal will give ZFX a fair bit of cash to play with. It's just that stupid LME Zn price keeps devaluing my holdings. I read on Kitco that they are expecting further Zn weakness and surplus which is expected to increase smelting prices. So Zinifex will not directly benefit from higher smelting pices due to the sell off.

Copper sounds good, prices are very low with huge upside potential. I guess that since I am holding so much ZFX it is very nerve racking. Not only that but I have a major percentage of my portfolio in PDN which has an SP depreciation almost instep with ZFX


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## roland (25 October 2007)

ZFX is down again on pre-open. Zinc and Lead are both down around 3% on the LME. Looks like another disappointing day for ZFX - where is the Ex Div excitement???


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## nomore4s (25 October 2007)

roland said:


> ZFX is down again on pre-open. Zinc and Lead are both down around 3% on the LME. Looks like another disappointing day for ZFX - where is the Ex Div excitement???




No point buying in for a D/E if the stock is weak before Ex D/E, buying in for a 70c D/E only to lose $1.00 on the stock doesn't really make sense. With the general market volatility and zinc looking weak the 70c D/E isn't really that attractive to some atm .


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## roland (25 October 2007)

ZFX need to employ a better PR manager. What a lack-lustre boring quarterly report .....sheesh .................


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## roland (25 October 2007)

I'm out! Biggest trade for me ever - sold 5,500 shares, feels kind of funny being so cashed up now. Need to go buy something else now. The weekness in ZFX along with the prospect of a $1.00 drop next Tuesday rattled me.....


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## qr2007 (25 October 2007)

roland said:


> I'm out! Biggest trade for me ever - sold 5,500 shares, feels kind of funny being so cashed up now. Need to go buy something else now. The weekness in ZFX along with the prospect of a $1.00 drop next Tuesday rattled me.....




Congratulation Roland!!!!

You have made the right decision ... so did I, out today at the high 17 .. try to hang around for D/E but it does not worth it??? .70 for $1 ????

Cheers ... time for a beer ????


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## roland (25 October 2007)

qr2007 said:


> Congratulation Roland!!!!
> 
> You have made the right decision ... so did I, out today at the high 17 .. try to hang around for D/E but it does not worth it??? .70 for $1 ????
> 
> Cheers ... time for a beer ????




A beer??? I reckon, maybe a few. Since I brew my own, I always have a good supply 

Crikey, it's really such a weight off my mind. I'd been tring to average it down, but only got it down to $17.71, so to get out at $17.87 I still made a few bucks - I think I'll go and play a little more with BNB - the intraday $1 swings are heaps of fun and I can handle being stuck holding BNB since the broker forecast is around $35.

Hope you made a profit qr


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## Nyden (25 October 2007)

roland said:


> A beer??? I reckon, maybe a few. Since I brew my own, I always have a good supply
> 
> Crikey, it's really such a weight off my mind. I'd been tring to average it down, but only got it down to $17.71, so to get out at $17.87 I still made a few bucks - I think I'll go and play a little more with BNB - the intraday $1 swings are heaps of fun and I can handle being stuck holding BNB since the broker forecast is around $35.
> 
> Hope you made a profit qr




Hmm, I can understand why you've been anxious with a buy in of that price!

I was lucky enough to buy all of mine for 16.70 during the correction. So, I'm sitting rather comfortably awaiting those dividends.

Zinifex has a fair history of ups & downs, I hope you find yourself a good buy  OXR still looks good! Who knows, if you go with OXR; might just end up with Zinifex again one day :


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## roland (25 October 2007)

Nyden said:


> Hmm, I can understand why you've been anxious with a buy in of that price!
> 
> I was lucky enough to buy all of mine for 16.70 during the correction. So, I'm sitting rather comfortably awaiting those dividends.
> 
> Zinifex has a fair history of ups & downs, I hope you find yourself a good buy  OXR still looks good! Who knows, if you go with OXR; might just end up with Zinifex again one day :




Thanks Nyden, I've been a long time ZFX holder (around 200 trades in 3 years) I actually feel I have lost a friend  I generally take profits as I go and hold when it comes to ExDiv. I had some holdings at $16.80 but got caught holding some at $19 that I had after the drop from $21. It didn't recover the way it normally does. I believe the broker consensus is around $17.80 - it was $21 about 6 months ago


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## roland (25 October 2007)

Actually, I just checked Aegis Research, and their 12 month target on Zinifex is $17.14, maybe there are better targets from other brokers


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## qr2007 (25 October 2007)

roland said:


> A beer??? I reckon, maybe a few. Since I brew my own, I always have a good supply
> 
> Crikey, it's really such a weight off my mind. I'd been tring to average it down, but only got it down to $17.71, so to get out at $17.87 I still made a few bucks - I think I'll go and play a little more with BNB - the intraday $1 swings are heaps of fun and I can handle being stuck holding BNB since the broker forecast is around $35.
> 
> Hope you made a profit qr




Hey Roland,

Yes, just a bit but I am happy with my decision.
I think SP will go up a bit more after the market closed and tonight overseas performance but its ok for me



did you???


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## roland (25 October 2007)

qr2007 said:


> Hey Roland,
> 
> Yes, just a bit but I am happy with my decision.
> I think SP will go up a bit more after the market closed and tonight overseas performance but its ok for me
> ...




Yes, I did - in 3 years of trading ZFX I have never made a loss. My personal feeling is that Zinc has lost some appeal due to expected surplus through 2008. ZFX will suffer from that, but Lead is on the rise - so a bit of an offest. Smelting costs for Zinc are expected to rise, so ZFX selling off it's smelting business will not benefit. Some say ZFX is on the lookout for acquiring a Copper asset and funds from the Nyrstar float are expected to help - so long as it is fully subscribed. If Nyrstar provides the expected funds, then Zinifex will be cashed up for either a Copper purchase or a return to shareholders.

My personal strategy - if ZFX falls below $17.00 tomorrow then buy - maybe even at $17.20 just for dividend return (remembering that SP is expected to fall the same value as the dividend - short term). The 29th will have an impact when ZFX releases data regarding the Nyrstar float - could rock the boat if not fully subscribed. I expect the result will be good since the smelting business is expected to provide higher returns from surplus Zn.

If I missed the target tomorrow at $17.00, then maybe Monday will give 1 last day. Otherwise wait until Tuesday for anticipated SP fall and buy light and start again with small accumulations and cost averaging. ExDiv SP drop should revover within 2 or 3 weeks so long as Nyrstar news was good - otherwise may take longer.

Sort of sounds complicated, but everyone has their own style with their favourite stock.

I am a little addicted to Zinifex and know full well that there are better opportunities out there - but I like the challenge


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## vishalt (25 October 2007)

Last time I checked UBS still retained its $22 target on ZFX. 

The stock moves rapidly but its P/E ratio is low and it has nice expansion plans, I think you and I expected a bit too much Nyden - ah I can only remember those days when Zinifex was $5 and then gave out 70c dividends at just $10, $13 and it went UP on ex-dividend days.

But yeah I bailed out at $21 a few months back .


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## roland (25 October 2007)

vishalt said:


> Last time I checked UBS still retained its $22 target on ZFX.
> 
> The stock moves rapidly but its P/E ratio is low and it has nice expansion plans, I think you and I expected a bit too much Nyden - ah I can only remember those days when Zinifex was $5 and then gave out 70c dividends at just $10, $13 and it went UP on ex-dividend days.
> 
> But yeah I bailed out at $21 a few months back .




Zinifex has been an amazing story and is still amongst the best top dividend yielders. Their management is top tier and gives confidence with their decisions. You did a great job picking the $21 top - I got greedy and expected more ..... $21+ and dividends would have been huge for me, but I stuffed up and lost both the huge capitol gain and dividends this half year. There is still plenty of upside with Zinifex, but not right now. Thank you ZFX, thank you Ball Boys - see you next tournament!


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## michael_selway (25 October 2007)

roland said:


> Zinifex has been an amazing story and is still amongst the best top dividend yielders. Their management is top tier and gives confidence with their decisions. You did a great job picking the $21 top - I got greedy and expected more ..... $21+ and dividends would have been huge for me, but I stuffed up and lost both the huge capitol gain and dividends this half year. There is still plenty of upside with Zinifex, but not right now. Thank you ZFX, thank you Ball Boys - see you next tournament!




Hi at $21 it was a great sell i think

*Earnings and Dividends Forecast (cents per share) 
2007 2008 2009 2010 
EPS 274.1 229.1 167.4 113.6 
DPS 140.0 127.5 90.4 57.5 *

thx

MS


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## uhu (29 October 2007)

"Zambia the favourite

Some companies, such as Zinifex, are willing to consider investing in Zambia but not in the Democratic Republic of Congo. BlackRock's Evy Hambro notes Zambia seems to be "better accepted" by the market as a place to do business, particularly given the recent licensing review."

http://www.smh.com.au/news/business...r-nature/2007/10/28/1193555533105.html?page=2

Well, so Zambia will be an other potential place for Zinifex. But this is an exploration, not "the" acquisition.
An arabs newspaper is writing Nyrstar's price will be around 20, this between 18 and 23 euro, so, not bad.
Have you got tips what company be the target of ZFX? (a one billion size target...)
Only aussie company? Or other?


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## Nyden (30 October 2007)

Quite a bit of pre-market volume there today! 
Suprised no one has discussed the nystar results?

Thought that went rather well, and ZFX still own a decent portion I believe.

Then of course, there's this http://www.forbes.com/afxnewslimited/feeds/afx/2007/10/29/afx4271533.html

Always helps the sentiment 



> MUMBAI (Thomson Financial) - Fitch Ratings said it has affirmed Zinifex Ltd's 'BB+' long-term foreign currency issuer default rating with a stable outlook, following the announcement by the Australian base metals miner that it had successfully completed the public offer of shares in Belgian zinc producer Nyrstar.
> 
> 'The very significant cash injection from the public offer, an ungeared balance sheet and strong cash flows from existing mining assets provide a strong foundation for Zinifex to grow its higher-margin mining business,' Fitch said.
> 
> The initial public offering of Nyrstar, the joint venture started by Belgian materials group Umicore SA and Zinifex, saw 100 mln shares offered at 20 eur per share, the company said.


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## silence (31 October 2007)

Hi, the announcement was good, was it not? I was just wondering what was the general reason behind the ~$1 drop?


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## eMark (31 October 2007)

silence said:


> Hi, the announcement was good, was it not? I was just wondering what was the general reason behind the ~$1 drop?




ZFX went ex-dividend yesterday. Usually results in a drop in the share price the day after. There you go.


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## silence (31 October 2007)

Oh, silly me. I thought that was next week, for some reason.
Still a more than the dividend decrease though, hopefully it will pick up today.


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## drmb (31 October 2007)

silence said:


> Oh, silly me. I thought that was next week, for some reason. Still a more than the dividend decrease though, hopefully it will pick up today.




$1 is about the value of the ff divie + 30% tax. I don't expect the sp to go up today since the GFMS Base Metal Indexx and the Dow non-ferrous metal index are down overnight, copper and zinc spot both down www.kitcometals.com and see http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601012&sid=arfF_lzbhWw8&refer=commodities 

If you hold longterm this should be a blip down imo before heading up once the loot from the float starts to result in aquisitions.


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## Lachlan6 (31 October 2007)

With Zinc prices struggling a little at the moment, ZFX has defied the zinc market by staying relatively strong in the last few months. The move up since August however is clearly part of what _could_ be considered a larger zig zag corrective pattern. Regardless, the overall move looks corrective and I am expecting lower prices. It is currently in a wave iii in the wave (C), so I am looking for a target of $15.45 for this wave, which also coincides with the support in September. The perfect time to short ZFX was yesterday with the gap up prior to the dividend, and placing a stop at $18.86.


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## Nyden (31 October 2007)

I'm a little surprised by today's loss really, yesterday we already gave back the $1 from exdiv, today just seems like overkill 

They need to start making those acquisitions dammit :

Hopefully fed will cut rates tonight, and ZFX will be back in the 17s in the rally 


Lachlan, can you really count what happened in a *correction* as part of its pattern? Granted, ZFX does like to constantly zig-zag! (Something I hope will stop after they start spending the cash) But, I just don't see $15.45 unless we have another correction. 

Low 16s/ high 15s seems to have become its new zig for the zag


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## Lachlan6 (31 October 2007)

Hello Nyden. Elliott Wave would show that the movement in ZFX since July is part of an overall corrective pattern. Look what has happened today for example. Down over 4%. Often the wave iii is the most impulsive (in this case down), so gaps like this are not unexpectant. I believe the $15.45 target will most likely end this wave iii down.


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## blablabla (31 October 2007)

A very accurate call, Lachlan6. Down more than 4% today, most of the fall being in the overnight gap.

Zinifex price had been supported by the Nyrstar disposal and by holders waiting for the $0.70 franked dividend. The amount of cash raised for Zinifex by the Nyrstar IPO although substantial turned out to be lower than some had hoped and now that it has gone XD it appears that many have headed for the exit. With soft zinc prices at the moment the SP could have further to go down.

As a result of the last USA interest rate cut, many base metal prices saw increased demand and rising prices in the short term. If USA lowers the rate again this week then base metals may rise unless buyers have already factored another rate cut into prices. 

Not holding any open position in ZFX at the moment as I am now in wait-and-see mode and cannot predict tomorrow's action. If Zinifex falls again tomorrow then this will confirm the trend that Lachlan6 has predicted. Such a strong performer as Zinifex will eventually bounce and it will be interesting to see what they decide to spend their big cash balance on.


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## YELNATS (31 October 2007)

Nyden said:


> They need to start making those acquisitions dammit :
> 
> But, I just don't see $15.45 unless we have another correction.




I really do hope they spend their new loot wisely and not like a sailor in a dockside bar.:

If the price goes down to $15.45 or thereabouts seems it would be top-up time.


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## Nyden (31 October 2007)

YELNATS said:


> I really do hope they spend their new loot wisely and not like a sailor in a dockside bar.:
> 
> If the price goes down to $15.45 or thereabouts seems it would be top-up time.




Oh, without a doubt if it hits that I'll top up 
Well, if the fed cut the rates by 50bp, even if a cut is factored in; we'll see a rally :

What can I say, I'm an optimist! At least when it comes to money, in every other aspect in life in a cynical pessimist


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## TheAnalyst (31 October 2007)

At this stage the dividend and earnings per share forecasts are to be ignored, as they do not take into account new discoveries and mine extensions, as well as the increase in price and demand, ZFX at the moment is good value, and probably just gets down to your time frame of holding the stock,don't forget its next dividend by March next year, and the zinc prices are at a retracement at the moment, once the iron ore prices are sorted out at the China meetings, then more than likely the market will resume, also if we get a second fed rate cut tomorrow, that will be two in a row and will be the likely continuation of the bull market, if we get a third U.S. fed rate cut in December or before that will be 3 in a row and as history states, almost every time there has been 3 U.S. fed rate cuts in a row, BULL MARKET, and three rate increases, the confirmation of a bear market.

Its ex div as well, and a lot of short termer's are jumping off from that buying opportunity in August.....and their huge gains.....


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## uhu (31 October 2007)

Let's see last day trading in USA.
TECK COMINCO CL B -4,98%
FREEPORT MCMORAN B -3,27%
etc

So, it was likely Zinifex goes down. But, I am suprised also, because ZFX's -5,5% is more...but that's what I had to notice in tha last months, Zinifex overreact US and commodity prices events. Few days ago ZFX was around 18 aud (almost 19 with dividend) and nox below 17.

What I don't understand why ZFX could not reach the july maximum as most of miners could do in Australia, US and America.

The top price was around 21...it seems very high and far

So, what do you think what is the reason of the share price's difference between ZFX and "the others"? I trusted (trust) to ZFX but I am really disappointed. I like this stock but I would better like profit.


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## Nyden (31 October 2007)

uhu said:


> Let's see last day trading in USA.
> TECK COMINCO CL B -4,98%
> FREEPORT MCMORAN B -3,27%
> etc
> ...





I think the whole 'zinc surplus' of next year is keeping some buyers away.
Being a 'one commodity' company is always dangerous in that regard, which is why I'm glad they're looking to branch out into becoming more diverse.

I still say they should go for OXR, they cover a fair few commods these days; would basically be a pre-packaged box of what they want! 

ZFX Might have been a good little buy today, if the feds cut the rates with some well spoken words behind them; we could definately recover the 5% tomorrow, and then some.


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## uhu (31 October 2007)

"Buy the romour, sell the news"...I thik there are a lot of romour with Zinifex. It has got more than 1 md dollar to acquire other minig (likely copper, gold), so, production will be much higher than 2007. And yes, there are bad news about zinc'prices.

So, in ZFX's case: Sell the romour, buy the news.


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## legs (31 October 2007)

possibly people are selling down ZFX after JBM takeover offer was made?? Possibly they held ZFX hoping it was a takeover target? It will take a while now for the next takeover.. 
Who knows what the punters are thinking on selling it down...


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## roland (31 October 2007)

legs said:


> possibly people are selling down ZFX after JBM takeover offer was made?? Possibly they held ZFX hoping it was a takeover target? It will take a while now for the next takeover..
> Who knows what the punters are thinking on selling it down...




Well, this long term ZFX punter dumped it through disappointment with performance. Traded and held for 6 months looking for a bit of a run up for ex dividend which didn't happen. It was obvious post ex dividend it was going to tank, so sold out. Ex div, and yes it tanked - in a major way, it fell 2 x the dividend value - what a dog.

Zinc prices are down and a zinc surplus pending. ZFX has no new resources yet and has sold off a very profitable part of it's business. The results of the sell off were certainly not spectatcular and fell short of my expectations. Broker consensus has it valued at around $17.50 (Aegis and others).

Laclans chart shows a cycle likely to bring it down to $15.45 - so I am not surprised people are dumping - there are better opportunities around. The punters who did well from the dividend probably dumped after ex div to find something with a brighter short term future - just like me.


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## vishalt (31 October 2007)

What is this Zinc surplus people are talking about, I don't get it D:!

Go to LME or kitco.com, Zinc supplies are PLUMMETING, I've noticed Zinc go from 120k to 60k, the facts are speaking for themselves, its a pity that this stock and the whole Zinc story is dominated by speculating hacks.


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## uhu (31 October 2007)

And, of course, the China story...

In the last years analysts always underestimated the growth of China, so, I think China (India etc) will need more metal in the future than most of analysts think now.
Well, yes, there are a lot of article about the growth of supply (because higher prices allow to mine in less profitable mines). But, but...zinc is an important metal, attached a bit to iron for ex. And now we can read iron prices will rise 20-30 pc next year...

And, I think it's better to buy new mines/firm instead of keeping smelting assests - if Zfx can find a good one!

(Yesterday lead fall sharply, this can be an other reason of ZFX's share price.)


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## uhu (1 November 2007)

Hey,

a great US economy data...although it will push down shares because rate cut may over, but in middle-term (maybe later) this is maybe one of the best news in the last months.
US locomotive is still alive....US economy need a lot of everything...

(Now european markets can!t decide it is a good or a bad news.)


(US GDP growth is much higher than expected.)


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## Damuzzdu (1 November 2007)

vishalt said:


> What is this Zinc surplus people are talking about, I don't get it D:!
> 
> Go to LME or kitco.com, Zinc supplies are PLUMMETING, I've noticed Zinc go from 120k to 60k, the facts are speaking for themselves, its a pity that this stock and the whole Zinc story is dominated by speculating hacks.




Vishalt,

This is surplus the market is talking about....

ILZSG forecasts zinc market to shift to surplus next year

Metals Insider - 2007-10-09

The International Lead and Zinc Study Group (ILZSG) said it expects the global refined zinc market to record a supply-demand deficit of 47,000t this year before recording a *surplus *of just under a *quarter of a million* tonnes next year. 

The forecast was made following a meeting last week of the Group’s Statistical and Forecasting Committee. 

Global demand is seen rising by 3.0% to 11.38 million tonnes this year and by 5.1% to 11.96 million tonnes in 2008. Growth will largely be determined by China, where usage is expected to rise by 8.8% this year and by 12.1% next year.

Mine supply is expected to grow by 7.4% to 11.18 million tonnes this year and then by a faster 9.5% to 12.24 million tonnes next year. 

Global refined zinc metal production is forecast to increase by 5.9% to 11.32 million tonnes this year and by 7.8% to 12.2 million tonnes in 2008. 

The ILZSG noted that the latest Chinese trade data suggest that net imports of zinc concentrates and net exports of metal will rise sharply in 2007. More concentrates will be imported next year but exports should hold this year’s levels as domestic demand soaks up more metal, according to ILZSG. 

and a more insight........


METALS INSIDER  
Z I N C  &  L E A D

MI WEEK IN REVIEW: Zinc holds on…for now

Metals Insider - 2007-10-29

MI WEEK IN REVIEW: The bear grip on LME zinc remains firmly in place but 3-month metal is still holding in there…just. It was helped last week by a general indecisiveness across the entire industrial metals complex. London locals were taking their cue from global stock markets, which were initially in thrall to the potential for an anniversary repeat of the 1987 “Black Monday” meltdown and then, when it didn’t happen, to the growing number of big financial houses taking Q3 write-downs against the sub-prime debacle in the US. 

Risk aversion has once again become the watch-word, while the metals market can’t make up its collective mind how to balance out a slowing US economy and a still-exuberant Chinese economy. The fact that the LME’s bellwether copper contract closed the week out unchanged pretty much said it all.  

LME zinc didn’t fare quite as well, closing the week out at $2,900/tonne, representing a week-to-week loss of $55. However, it managed to defy the many technical traders looking for a break of the $2,850 level to trigger a collapse back to the September lows at $2,700. Twice it lurched through $2,850””once on Wednesday and again on Thursday””but without giving the many bear chart-followers the satisfaction of an ensuing meltdown. 

It’s possible that the general round of risk aversion may have played a part since speculative players have been overwhelmingly playing zinc from the short side. That said, however, our fund-watching friends have noted no significant reduction in the collective short position held by the CTA systematic fund community””it remains around 70% of potential capacity. 

Technical players have it in for this market and a lot of fundamental-oriented analysts are minded the same way. 


The market collectively groaned when Apex Silver Mines announced early in the week the first shipments of zinc concentrate from the giant San Cristobal mine in Bolivia. 

San Cristobal has come to symbolise the wave of new and restarted mine capacity that is shifting the zinc concentrates market to surplus in double-quick time. That’s because with anticipated production of 182,500tpy it is by far the biggest single addition to mine supply. 

But it is far from being the only one. Australia’s Perilya is one of the many small to mid-sized players ramping up zinc production. It reported Q3 07 production of 35,700t, up from 25,600t in the previous quarter with the increase reflecting the new Beltana mine. More is to come with the company’s Potosi mine producing its first development-stage ore in the period. 

The International Lead and Zinc Study Group (ILZSG) calculates that mined production rose by a fast 8.0% year-on-year in the first eight months of 2008 with refined metal production up by 7.7%. Global usage, by contrast, is estimated to have grown by a far more modest 3.5% in the same period. 

The Group still assesses the global refined zinc market as being in overall deficit in the Jan-Aug period, albeit to the tune of a modest 28,000t. However, what made us and other analysts sit up was its calculation that August itself represented a 6,600t surplus. 

These underlying trends all seem to be pointing in the same direction and day-to-day sentiment in the market has not been helped by the stabilisation in LME zinc stocks after their long downtrend””up a net 1,625t last week following on from the previous week’s 1,775t rise. 

The nearby market structure is starting to reflect this tentative turnaround in visible stocks movement, the contango on the benchmark cash-to-3-months period widening to $12.00 at Friday’s valuations from $2.00 the previous week. 

It’s worth stressing, however, that this is still a tentative process. The impact of new mine supply is still being partly offset by production problems elsewhere. Both Kazakhmys and Grupo Mexico reported lower Q3 mined production with the former also reporting sharply lower refined metal production due to ambient heat problems with its smelter. 

There is also the thorny issue of China. The country is currently hoovering up concentrates at an accelerating pace. Imports of 294,000t in September were a record all-time high…for the second consecutive month. 

So far, however, what is going in as raw material is not coming out as refined metal. The country swung back to being a net importer of zinc metal in September, albeit by a highly marginal 704t. 

With its concentration of excess smelter capacity, China will play the key role in determining when, and the consensus is still that this is a question of “when” not “if”, concentrates surplus translates into refined metal surplus. 

This being China, there is a whole gamut of views as to how the country’s domestic market dynamics will play out. However, analysts at the state research house Antaike, have been quoted as saying they are looking for Chinese exports of zinc to increase from around 50,000t this year to 150,000t next year. They also suggested that the country will see a major (200,000t) inventory increase in the coming period. Were this to find its way onto the international market, the negative impact would be clearly much stronger. 

As we’ve said before in this column, we’re not yet in a period of palpable large surplus and although everything seems to be suggesting we’re heading that way in 2008, there remains the possibility for zinc to defy the doomsayers in the short term, even if the spark will probably come either from the likes of copper or from the macro environment, for example in terms of further dollar weakness. 

There was no such spark last week. As such the massed technical bears are still sitting pretty, convinced in their own minds that time has run out for this market. 




Cheers
Muzza


----------



## uhu (1 November 2007)

Well, every miners went up significantly...and Zinifex almoust fall.  I do not understand. Other zinc producers, etc Teck rose (although Kagara fall).
I checked commodity prices: lead went up (most of metal did this), but zinc didn't.

I hope the management will not wait for the decesion of acquisitinon for February.
First, it would be fine for ZFX's share price in short-term I think,
Second, other firms will be more expensive in February than now. So, I think they have to step before the end of the year.


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## Nyden (1 November 2007)

uhu said:


> Well, every miners went up significantly...and Zinifex almoust fall.  I do not understand. Other zinc producers, etc Teck rose (although Kagara fall).
> I checked commodity prices: lead went up (most of metal did this), but zinc didn't.
> 
> I hope the management will not wait for the decesion of acquisitinon for February.
> ...






It would be foolish of ZFX to make an aquistion based purely on keeping the price high ; they're not an explorer, you know.

I'd like for them to start acquiring too, or at least go into some talks, but - if they can save a lot of money, or buy at a better time; they're of course going to.


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## YELNATS (1 November 2007)

uhu said:


> I hope the management will not wait for the decesion of acquisitinon for February.
> First, it would be fine for ZFX's share price in short-term I think,
> Second, other firms will be more expensive in February than now. So, I think they have to step before the end of the year.






Nyden said:


> It would be foolish of ZFX to make an aquistion based purely on keeping the price high ; they're not an explorer, you know.
> 
> I'd like for them to start acquiring too, or at least go into some talks, but - if they can save a lot of money, or buy at a better time; they're of course going to.




I would expect that Zinifex would have their acquisition plans/projects well-advanced by now, and just awaiting finalisation before they are annouced.. 

I don't think they would have waited for the Nystar deal to be done and dusted before they turned around and said "um, let's see now, who can we acquire?" 

Surely, they are more professional than that.


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## Nyden (1 November 2007)

YELNATS said:


> I would expect that Zinifex would have their acquisition plans/projects well-advanced by now, and just awaiting finalisation before they are annouced..
> 
> I don't think they would have waited for the Nystar deal to be done and dusted before they turned around and said "um, let's see now, who can we acquire?"
> 
> Surely, they are more professional than that.






Hmmm, it isn't an issue of professionalism; but rather, keeping their options open. I'm sure they have *targets*, but to say they're well-advanced seems a stretch.

Hey, I'd love to be wrong here though  ZFX makes up a hefty part of my long-term portfolio

I just hope they acquire something already producing; like OXR for instance!

Having *cash* really doesn't do much for a stock like this, they should replace the earning power they sold, & soon.


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## legs (1 November 2007)

Nyden said:


> Hmmm, it isn't an issue of professionalism; but rather, keeping their options open. I'm sure they have *targets*, but to say they're well-advanced seems a stretch.
> 
> Hey, I'd love to be wrong here though  ZFX makes up a hefty part of my long-term portfolio
> 
> ...




Why couldn't they be well advanced?..They probably own at least 20% of their targets stock and had talks already with them, unless they are taking the silent raid option. These things dont just happen overnight.

Another possibility of the low price is a Company selling down their share of ZFX to lower the stock price so a lower takeover offer can be made, thoughts?


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## YELNATS (1 November 2007)

Nyden said:


> Hmmm, it isn't an issue of professionalism; but rather, keeping their options open. I'm sure they have *targets*, but to say they're well-advanced seems a stretch.
> 
> Hey, I'd love to be wrong here though  ZFX makes up a hefty part of my long-term portfolio
> 
> ...




Agreed and understood. I would think that the Nystar deal is part of a wider, long-term strategic plan for the company, maybe leading to acquisitions and diversification. ie. not an end in itself.


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## blablabla (2 November 2007)

If a t/o target can be identified then there might be more short-term upside in investing in the target rather than in Zinifex, if you can pick it before any move is made.

Potential targets may or may not be producers but they would probably have large ore resources. Targets could be zinc miners or they could provide diversification to Zinifex, e.g. the reported Oxiana negotiations which seem to have fallen through. Any guesses?

Another way that Zinifex can add value is by spending on exploration and development. They have a wide variety of exploration projects and if they can find a big new ore body then developing it is likely to deliver better returns than paying for an existing company.


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## uhu (2 November 2007)

Metal's prices fell. Zinc, copper are much cheeper than few months ago. 

Well, if it will be continued, it will impact to the profitability of some weeker mines worldwide. 
So, ZFX must look for targets have low-cost mines. I think this aspect is more important than 6 months ago.


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## legs (3 November 2007)

uhu said:


> Metal's prices fell. Zinc, copper are much cheeper than few months ago.
> 
> Well, if it will be continued, it will impact to the profitability of some weeker mines worldwide.
> So, ZFX must look for targets have low-cost mines. I think this aspect is more important than 6 months ago.




KZL is a big chance at being a target... watch out for the move on it. They have some good prospects.


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## uhu (3 November 2007)

legs said:


> KZL is a big chance at being a target... watch out for the move on it. They have some good prospects.




Well, maybe yes, but I think ZFX should diverificate itself. Zinc and lead...the same. Well, this can be also a logical way, but if zinc prices will fell more and more, it would be dangerous for Zinifex. (Or not, if trend will change, of course).

Well, Lynas is also a specific miner...interesting.


But Zinifex says they would enter to the copper and gold market, so, Oxiana or a non-aussie copper-gold miner is more likely. I have OXR shares too, so I would vote for Oxiana.


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## vishalt (3 November 2007)

Do you trade from Hungary Uhu? 

Zinifox would be a pretty cool name for a merger between Zinifex and the Oxiana.


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## Nyden (3 November 2007)

uhu said:


> Well, maybe yes, but I think ZFX should diverificate itself. Zinc and lead...the same. Well, this can be also a logical way, but if zinc prices will fell more and more, it would be dangerous for Zinifex. (Or not, if trend will change, of course).
> 
> Well, Lynas is also a specific miner...interesting.
> 
> ...




It's already known that it is ZFX's intent to branch out into copper, & nickel.
They won't be looking to buy more zinc, that would be moronic of them.

Which is still why I believe OXR is a target, & they probably already own a piece of them already from the last talks.


Speaking of which...



> There is now fresh speculation that Oxiana will seek a merger with zinc miner Zinifex, which is about to reap $1.5 billion in proceeds from the European float of its smelters at Nyrstar. Zinifex is also without a CEO as it still seeks a replacement for Greig Gailey, who left in June.
> 
> Speculation of a merger was stoked yesterday by a research note from Credit Suisse, which sees Zinifex as a logical fit for Oxiana. "We believe that Zinifex is a logical incremental step towards achieving Oxiana's growth vision," the note said.




Taken from http://www.theaustralian.news.com.au/story/0,25197,22694191-5005200,00.html


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## uhu (3 November 2007)

vishalt said:


> Do you trade from Hungary Uhu?
> 
> Zinifox would be a pretty cool name for a merger between Zinifex and the Oxiana.





"Zinifox" ))
Very good. Please recommend it in ZFX's homepage...but what does Mr. Hegarthy say? 

Yes, yes, I am hungarian and I live in Hungary...

OFF

Now I have a normal broker (not online), but I look for other possibilities, because it's difficult to trade at aussie market, my broker firm closes at about 5 pm and opens at 9 am, so, it close before aussie market opens and it opens after aussie market closes..

So, I checked Saxobank, it's not bad, although commission is a littlebit high (I think 40 aud/transaction), It's more expensive than my other online brokerfirm (comission 10Euro or 10 USD, but only in Xetra and USA). So, do you know other?


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## Lert (3 November 2007)

Hi there uhu.. this is very off topic but I see your countryman Peter Besenyei has set the best qualifying time in the Red Bull air races in Perth this afternoon.. hope he goes well tomorrow


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## uhu (3 November 2007)

OFF

Hi Lert from Perth,

Thanks! And TalmÃ¡csi (other hungarian) can be the Moto GP champion tomorrow! I hope Mark Webber will have better result at the next F1 season.


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## GREENS (3 November 2007)

legs said:


> KZL is a big chance at being a target... watch out for the move on it. They have some good prospects.




Although Oxiana would probably be the most likely suitor of ASX listed companies for Zinifex, Legs I agree that many have looked past Kagara. Many assume Kagara is just a Zinc/Lead Miner when in fact they earn more of their revenue from copper than Zinc. In addition the company has substantial exposure to Gold with the Mungana and Red Dome developments, Nickel at their Lounge Lizard permit and the massive undeveloped Admiral Bay Zn-Ld-Ag deposit, which would take over in perfect time for the closure of century. They definitely get the tick for being an efficient producer and have zillions of attractive Zn-Ld-Cu targets up in north Queensland to drill out over the next few years. The only problem with Kagara is that a lot of their big projects aren’t due to come online till around 2010 through to 2012. Zinifex may want these type of projects, yet ones that are currently producing. Not expecting a move on KZL, but wouldn’t be complaining if it did get a takeover bid :.


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## mlevit (4 November 2007)

I have been eyeing ZFX for a while now. If ZFX would drop to around the $15 - $16 mark, a definite buy in would be recommended?

I currently have mainly blue chip stocks and have a low risk portfolio, if I were to buy into ZFX, would I be looking at a short term hold? or mainly depending on the price?

What do you guys see ZFX climbing too if the a takeover is announced? and at what would a good selling price point be if buying in at $15/$16?


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## TheAnalyst (4 November 2007)

I would like to know what others think? I am at the opinion that Zinifix has dropped, is due to being ex div, then the risk that more zinc and lead are coming on to the market, as well as the market spot price decreasing, the risk to earnings, due to zfx being involved in only two metals, and not having other metals to supply, the net loss in equity to zfx, to any other miner it takes over, due to the larger price premium that a buyer must pay to a target company.


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## overule (4 November 2007)

Personally, i think ZFX will drop a bit more due to weaker base metal and surplus of Zinc. Having said that, they might sustain a small rally before Christmas but i don't see them breaking the record price anytime soon.


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## BankRoller (4 November 2007)

a very interesting article in the age today, over more consolidation in the resources market. special attention paid to ZFX and OXR.

http://www.theaustralian.news.com.au/story/0,25197,22694191-5005200,00.html


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## legs (4 November 2007)

overule said:


> Personally, i think ZFX will drop a bit more due to weaker base metal and surplus of Zinc. Having said that, they might sustain a small rally before Christmas but i don't see them breaking the record price anytime soon.




I dont believe there is a huge surplus, as seen in these graphs. And believe the price will bounce back very soon.


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## overule (4 November 2007)

legs said:


> I dont believe there is a huge surplus, as seen in these graphs. And believe the price will bounce back very soon.




Yes, i agree there will not be a huge surplus but i don't see ZFX's SP breaking the record price (ie. $21) in the near future. I will be surprise if they manage to climb up to $19 given the current condition.


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## roland (4 November 2007)

Sometimes reading the LME stock levels doesn't necessarily show the whole picture. It needs to be taken in context with other factors. LME stock levels being low is like any other commodity - low stocks either mean, low availability or low demand. Do your research and use the LME stock levels and price indicators as part of the jigsaw puzzle - there is a lot more to it, if it were that easy, then Zinifex's SP would be at an all time high ...


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## uhu (4 November 2007)

legs said:


> I dont believe there is a huge surplus, as seen in these graphs. And believe the price will bounce back very soon.




Could you explain me why you think this? What do these graphics show?

About ZFX's price...
Well, in my opinion, there will be more drop in short-term, and we have to wait the acquisition(s). ZFX says it will not be before next February.

So, I will hold my shares. If acquisition will be succeed (they find a good company), I won't sell my shares. But if they can't find a good target _in good price_ (so it is not enough the good target - see Garmin's acquisition), I think I will have to sell. (realise loss).

So, I go the "bear's cave" as winter coming and at next spring I will check what was happened.


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## Nyden (5 November 2007)

Lachlan6 said:


> With Zinc prices struggling a little at the moment, ZFX has defied the zinc market by staying relatively strong in the last few months. The move up since August however is clearly part of what _could_ be considered a larger zig zag corrective pattern. Regardless, the overall move looks corrective and I am expecting lower prices. It is currently in a wave iii in the wave (C), so I am looking for a target of $15.45 for this wave, which also coincides with the support in September. The perfect time to short ZFX was yesterday with the gap up prior to the dividend, and placing a stop at $18.86.





Well I must say, I am impressed 
What does your crystal ball predict next :

We need some positive news, an explosion at a rival zinc mine would do nicely; gosh, isn't that ghoulish of me


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## uhu (6 November 2007)

Nyden said:


> Well I must say, I am impressed
> What does your crystal ball predict next :
> 
> We need some positive news, an explosion at a rival zinc mine would do nicely; gosh, isn't that ghoulish of me




A strike would be enough.  

An other interesting aspect. Articles say one of reason of zinc surplus is growth of Zinifex's production. So, this is - I am sorry, I don't know the exact phrase - the "trap of 22". 
I mean Zinifex produces more zinc (+13% than a year ago), so, zinc price falls, so, ZFX share price falls.... we have a phrase what I can translete "devil's circle".


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## drmb (6 November 2007)

uhu said:


> A strike would be enough.  An other interesting aspect. Articles say one of reason of zinc surplus is growth of Zinifex's production. So, this is - I am sorry, I don't know the exact phrase - the "trap of 22". I mean Zinifex produces more zinc (+13% than a year ago), so, zinc price falls, so, ZFX share price falls.... we have a phrase what I can translete "devil's circle".




Catch 22 is an example of a "disambiguation", or a double bind, comes from funny satiical novel "Catch 22", by Joseph Heller an Anerican author, and this his one and only "hit" now part of great US anti-war literature. Came out at time of Vietnam War but was set at the end of 2nd World War with main charater Yossarian who is centre of series of circular arguments

_There was only one catch and that was Catch-22, which specified that a concern for one's safety in the face of dangers that were real and immediate was the process of a rational mind. Orr was crazy and could be grounded. All he had to do was ask; and as soon as he did, he would no longer be crazy and would have to fly more missions. Orr would be crazy to fly more missions and sane if he didn't, but if he was sane he had to fly them. If he flew them he was crazy and didn't have to; but if he didn't want to he was sane and had to. Yossarian was moved very deeply by the absolute simplicity of this clause of Catch-22 and let out a respectful whistle.
"That's some catch, that Catch-22," Yossarian observed.
"It's the best there is," Doc Daneeka agreed._

If you are mad you can go home from the war, but if you say you are mad you can't be mad. And the circle is a simple one eg seriously disturbed mental nuts are allowed to continue fighting since they won't report medically unfit. If they did they wouldn't be mad! 

My favorite charater is Major Major, who became "Major Major Major" by accident. Enough already, read the book or watch the movie!

But I don't think ZFX is in a double bind, I think it is trapped at the moment by falling POZ die to lack of demand as we wait for the sub prime mess to sort itself out.


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## mlevit (6 November 2007)

With the up and coming interest rate rise this Wednesday and the over supply of Zinc in the market, does anyone believe ZFX might drop below $15?


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## Nyden (6 November 2007)

mlevit said:


> With the up and coming interest rate rise this Wednesday and the over supply of Zinc in the market, does anyone believe ZFX might drop below $15?




I'm a little down on ZFX right now ; so I can see it happening, yes :
But, I doubt it would be a far drop from that.

Waiting for Feb is no good (to make acquisitions); the shares may drop further; and they'll lose trading power in the value of their shares. Unless of course zinifex joins in on the santa rally, if there even is one!


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## roland (6 November 2007)

Has anyone had the courage to download and review the substantial shareholder change document of 292 pages? A quick overview would be nice.


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## Nyden (6 November 2007)

roland said:


> Has anyone had the courage to download and review the substantial shareholder change document of 292 pages? A quick overview would be nice.




: It's nothing fantastic - Credit Suisse has purchased about 7% of ZFX is all

Well, I guess it's great for sentiment though!


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## adobee (6 November 2007)

I saw the end of a show on CFDs last night .. which mentioned that you take take margins on ZFX .. Is anyone doing this or able to explain to a beginer how it works , I think I would be pretty comfortable doing this on Zinifex at the moment.. ?


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## Nyden (6 November 2007)

I just had a thought, Credit Suisse - with regards to Oxiana, & Zinifex...

This was taken from an article from the 3rd



> Speculation of a merger was stoked yesterday by a research note from Credit Suisse, which sees Zinifex as a logical fit for Oxiana. "We believe that Zinifex is a logical incremental step towards achieving Oxiana's growth vision," the note said.




And now; Credit Suisse - the ones who did the research, have suddenly bought 6.18% ?

Perhaps they think this may happen sooner, than later (or at all .


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## legs (6 November 2007)

Nyden said:


> I just had a thought, Credit Suisse - with regards to Oxiana, & Zinifex...
> 
> This was taken from an article from the 3rd
> 
> ...




Credit Suisse have been known to take stakes in potential takeover targets and have a hugely successful record. I am holding as I got in at 15.81 on previous stockmarket downturn. Hope they are correct here too. I would be surprised though if they were taken over. Would have to be BHP or someone with that type of clout!


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## mishu (6 November 2007)

Stocks like zfx and pem must be good buying at these levels and with lead continuing in high demand and bringing historically high figures.


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## michael_selway (6 November 2007)

mishu said:


> Stocks like zfx and pem must be good buying at these levels and with lead continuing in high demand and bringing historically high figures.




Hi ZFX is still not bad

*ZFX - Earnings and Dividends Forecast (cents per share) 
2007 2008 2009 2010 
EPS 274.1 222.7 164.1 111.9 
DPS 140.0 127.5 86.0 55.0 

PEM - Earnings and Dividends Forecast (cents per share) 
2007 2008 2009 2010 
EPS 43.1 61.0 68.3 42.8 
DPS 11.0 14.8 15.8 12.6 *

*KZL - Earnings and Dividends Forecast (cents per share) 
2007 2008 2009 2010 
EPS 40.7 61.5 58.8 64.3 
DPS 0.0 15.5 17.2 21.1 *

thx

MS


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## uhu (6 November 2007)

Hi drmb,

Ok, I know the story although I haven't seen the movie or read the book.

But thanks, I haven't known the story in so deep. 

Well, I don't know too much about Nunavut project. Is it working or there are just plans? And, if metal prices are continuing falling, is it worth the price? (Think about the extreme costs bacause of the -30 Celsius or lower in Canada).


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## shinobi346 (6 November 2007)

292? What does it list? Every single shareholder? 

I don't think ZFX mining more zinc will necessarily bring the price down. Its theirs so they can dictate the price it sells for. If they decide not to sell as much thats their prorogative. Take for example Debeers, they hold a vast supply of diamonds but that doesnt make the price of it low. BHP, RIO and that canadian mob sell the most iron ore yet they can set the prices which keep going up and up.


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## vishalt (6 November 2007)

shinobi346 said:


> 7 BHP, RIO and that canadian mob sell the most iron ore yet



You mean that Brazilian mob CVRD?

Speculators as usual are just beating around the bush and manipulating Zinc, and in turn, Zinifex how they want it. Zinifex really has no choice but to diversify to survive.


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## shinobi346 (7 November 2007)

Thats it. I was thinking Canada from the C at the beginning. 

You're right. I think they are exciting times ahead for ZFX. They can't live off their zinc forever. Century only has 10-15 yrs life max and with the other tenaments not as much. 

They have the money in the bank to diversify so it makes sense for them to do so. This one and MGX are 2 that I'm watching closely to buy something soon.


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## uhu (7 November 2007)

shinobi346 said:


> Thats it. I was thinking Canada from the C at the beginning.
> 
> They have the money in the bank to diversify so it makes sense for them to do so. This one and MGX are 2 that I'm watching closely to buy something soon.




Yes. They claim they want to be copper and gold producer. But there is no other possibilities?
Rare earth metals: Lynas Corp.

Iron?
Aluminium?
Or these too "extreme" for ZFX?


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## Nyden (7 November 2007)

uhu said:


> Yes. They claim they want to be copper and gold producer. But there is no other possibilities?
> Rare earth metals: Lynas Corp.
> 
> Iron?
> ...




They want Copper, & Nickel.

Zinc went up over 3% today...hope this interest rate stuff doesn't prevent a nice gain today 

As well as a rally in the US, today's perfect for Zinifex ; just this darn interest rate hike in Australia may slow the markets down today, which is just nonsense - as lets face it, what happens in Australia these days is irrelevant to our markets! :


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## Nyden (7 November 2007)

Well, how disappointing - we went from an SP rise of 3%...to a drop of 1% 
Probably still a lot of people trying to get out ex-div.

I'm relatively new on the zinifex scene, but - I'm surprised at the fact that the SP hasn't really grown this past year; it's fluctuated a whole bunch...but, no actual growth. It's essentially stayed at within the same price range. I guess that's to be expected though, what with the massive decline in Zinc this year.

Maybe if they stopped issuing such large dividends, they'd have more to invest for acquisitions. The large dividends obviously do nothing to 'keep' people on board...so what's the point of it, really?

I guess the same could have been said about OXR last year, for the good part of that year (all depends on your buy-in price though  it bounced about a lot - but no real growth. Once they diversified themselves more - things are obviously fantastic for them now.

They need to buy something; either producing, or reasonably close to that. It's no good paying a premium on some explorer; boom could be over by that time.

Hopefully it'll rise during the market close, doesn't look good for a stock when it drops on both good, & bad days - reminds me of PDN :

Let us hope the US markets & demand for zinc treats us nicely tonight 


Surely, something must be cooking? 11% of the company has just been purchased in a matter of days, I hope something's cooking at least!


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## Nyden (7 November 2007)

Nyden said:


> Well, how disappointing - we went from an SP rise of 3%...to a drop of 1%
> Probably still a lot of people trying to get out ex-div.
> 
> I'm relatively new on the zinifex scene, but - I'm surprised at the fact that the SP hasn't really grown this past year; it's fluctuated a whole bunch...but, no actual growth. It's essentially stayed at within the same price range. I guess that's to be expected though, what with the massive decline in Zinc this year.
> ...




I'm too tired, should have slept! That's just total voting power, bully to me 
Oh well, I had a big win on the cup yesterday! Cut me some slack, I would edit - but, it isn't letting me :


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## uhu (8 November 2007)

Have you noticed if Dow rise sharply ZFX is staying at the same level (plus or minus 1%), but if Dow (and american zinc-copper miners etc Teck) fall as today Zfx can drop 4-5%?

...

But, probably they are speculating to more drop of aussie mining sector so every other companies will be cheaper in Febr than now?  And the more than one billion aud is in the bank...so, it is getting more and more


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## edvisor (8 November 2007)

both ubs and creditsuisse have upped their stakes last 2 days, so buying now would mean you are ahead of both.

little point rationalising without much evidence, but my theory on the continual price decline is AXA trying to reduce their holdings to a less riskier level, given ZFX's intention to go on a spending spree shortly.


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## ozrob (8 November 2007)

edvisor said:


> both ubs and creditsuisse have upped their stakes last 2 days, so buying now would mean you are ahead of both.




Got to agree with you, I just bought some this morning at $14.60 which is something like a 20% discount on their pre ex-dividend price.


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## adobee (8 November 2007)

I am really tempted to buy at this price.. I want to wait and see what happens over night and tomorrow.. 

To buy or not to buy...


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## prawn_86 (8 November 2007)

I too think that there could be a short term opportunity here for a quick few %.

Will definetly wait for a big up day on the DOW though.


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## Sean K (8 November 2007)

I have NO IDEA about what this stock is capable of, but looking at the chart I have some reservations....

Surely, anything in commods should be flying through ath's atm....


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## prawn_86 (8 November 2007)

On the FA side of things, i think long term investors are worried, as their mine life is fairly short. 

They are cashed up, but the public is yet to see what direction they take. Ie - acquistion or exploration.

I have NO IDEA about TA but surely one could expect a small bounce on a big DOW recovery


----------



## Sean K (8 November 2007)

prawn_86 said:


> I have NO IDEA about TA but surely one could expect a small bounce on a big DOW recovery



 I certainly have my fingers crossed prawn, I'm mostly long. However, the sub prime fall out is getting worse than I expected right now. Looks to be spreading a tad. Still some time before the skeletons are fully exposed so I'm staying cautious with some spare change..


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## ta2693 (8 November 2007)

kennas said:


> I certainly have my fingers crossed prawn, I'm mostly long. However, the sub prime fall out is getting worse than I expected right now. Looks to be spreading a tad. Still some time before the skeletons are fully exposed so I'm staying cautious with some spare change..




I do not agree with Kennas. I feel subprime's story is near end.
My reason 
1st Everybody on street know "sub prime" which was an alien word for most of us 3 months ago. The impact of "subprime" word  would be much smaller in the future. ppl are tired of "subprime"

2nd 1 month is long enough for market to assess the impact of "sub prime" b
2 months is enough for smart investor to walk out this position. The seller now is just too slow and I will not sell with them.


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## Stan 101 (8 November 2007)

Yes it was a red day for every share I keep an eye on...

since offloading most of my holdings last week I'm stilling on the sidelines waiting to buy back in...If ZFX drops below $14 I might jump in... I'm also keeping a close eye on CBH...

I guess it's a game of wait and see.


----------



## Nyden (8 November 2007)

Stan 101 said:


> Yes it was a red day for every share I keep an eye on...
> 
> since offloading most of my holdings last week I'm stilling on the sidelines waiting to buy back in...If ZFX drops below $14 I might jump in... I'm also keeping a close eye on CBH...
> 
> I guess it's a game of wait and see.




I should certainly hope it doesn't drop that low, my average entry was 16.5!
Oh well, hopefully this'll make for a buy opportunity.

I sure wish sub-prime would just go away  I'm feeling the pain here!

They should just announce all the write-downs, & what-nots in one big black day, then we can recover : Instead, it's more like an agonizing slow death. Just when things recover, some company announces that they lost 10b. It's really getting old.

It is teetering awfully close to the 52 day low..it's one of the reasons this stock stresses me out! Far too much zig-zagging.


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## Kimosabi (8 November 2007)

Stan 101 said:


> Yes it was a red day for every share I keep an eye on...
> 
> since offloading most of my holdings last week I'm stilling on the sidelines waiting to buy back in...If ZFX drops below $14 I might jump in... I'm also keeping a close eye on CBH...
> 
> I guess it's a game of wait and see.




Considering some of the largest bank in America appear to be insolvent and many of the biggest US companies and Investors (people in the know) are relocating overseas, I think don't think we've seen anything yet.

Looks to me like America is being deliberately destroyed, with the poor and middle classes that are going to cop the worst of it.

We've only had one round of musical chairs so far, I think there are a few more rounds to go before all of the chairs are removed and "we all fall down".


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## Stan 101 (8 November 2007)

Nyden said:


> It is teetering awfully close to the 52 day low..it's one of the reasons this stock stresses me out! Far too much zig-zagging.




That's exactly why I like this stock. Plenty of buy in - sell off quick opportunities...The only issue is it's five long months until the pack start buying up for the dividend... I wonder due to this last ex whether the pack will be scared off come next dividend wind up?





cheers,


----------



## Nyden (8 November 2007)

Stan 101 said:


> That's exactly why I like this stock. Plenty of buy in - sell off quick opportunities...The only issue is it's five long months until the pack start buying up for the dividend... I wonder due to this last ex whether the pack will be scared off come next dividend wind up?
> 
> 
> 
> ...





Yes, it's great for traders; but not investors like myself! :
As I said last page - ZFX's *growth* this year has been non-existant... At least in reflection to the SP. Surely, they've made money & have grown as a company? Whats the deal :


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## michael_selway (8 November 2007)

Nyden said:


> Yes, it's great for traders; but not investors like myself! :
> As I said last page - ZFX's *growth* this year has been non-existant... At least in reflection to the SP. Surely, they've made money & have grown as a company? Whats the deal :




They need the takeovers!

*Earnings and Dividends Forecast (cents per share) 
2007 2008 2009 2010 
EPS 274.1 222.7 163.6 111.9 
DPS 140.0 130.0 94.8 57.5 *

thx

MS


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## Nyden (8 November 2007)

michael_selway said:


> They need the takeovers!
> 
> *Earnings and Dividends Forecast (cents per share)
> 2007 2008 2009 2010
> ...





Yes, but I mean - everyone *knows* they're cashed up, and I believe no one thinks 'this is it' for Zinifex?

I'm just surprised the market hasn't really factored in the fact that they're going to be making money soon enough from commodities that *aren't* Zinc? I don't think it's an issue of them being overvalued with a P/E rating of 6.

I understand that the price of Zinc is going down the hole right now, but $14 seems too low. Ugh, I hate subprime 

They should get back into talks with Oxiana for that friendly merger! I hold both, so I'd be smiling 

As I said, I believe their dividends are too high - it encourages far too much selling afterwards, and could be spent better elsewhere. What's the point of collecting a 70c dividend when the price drops $4?


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## prawn_86 (8 November 2007)

Perhaps the management are happy holding heaps of shares and getting fat dividends, because by the time the mine runs out they will have retired.

Then ZFX will become Pasminco again 

They dont seem to promote themselves very much, but i dont follow them too closely


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## YELNATS (8 November 2007)

prawn_86 said:


> They dont seem to promote themselves very much, but i dont follow them too closely




That's quite right. Since Greg Gailey, who was a brilliant presenter, has left, there hasn't been anyone to emerge as a good PR person for ZFX. 

They still haven't named a replacement for Gailey. Until they do, it seems all the intense speculation over the future direction of ZFX will continue, to the detriment of the share price.


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## eMark (8 November 2007)

Nyden said:


> I should certainly hope it doesn't drop that low, my average entry was 16.5!
> Oh well, hopefully this'll make for a buy opportunity.
> 
> I sure wish sub-prime would just go away  I'm feeling the pain here!
> ...




Oh the irony! I made the swap out of ZFX into PDN back in April, and I am still riding that rollercoaster. ZFX went up PDN went down. Now at least for me PDN is up while ZFX is down; as I am still sailing with that same ship being PDN. But in todays climate, I'm not sure which ship to sail. Good luck Nyden, you're welcome back into the PDN thread at any time. There may be a ship with your name on it again soon.


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## uhu (8 November 2007)

Zinifex CEO or other boss said ZFX would give high dividend from NYRSTAR project and probably from the 2008 profit.

I would NOT like more dividend. They gave 1 aud before taxes and I lost 4 aud after exdiv day. In my opinion it would be better to buy as large company as it possible, so, they should not pay dividend.

They have more than one milliard usd from nyrstar, other hundred millions from 2007 and 2008 profit, so they have at least 2 milliard without credits.

What is the price of whole Oxiana? Probably the 2 milliard won't be enough...(?)


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## edvisor (9 November 2007)

Oxi is not far behind in market cap to Zinifex , so they will need 8 B to buy Oxi, imo. Hegarty won't give it away for cheap.

Ideally, they should do a friendly with Oxr, form a combined gold/copper/zinc mid tier powerhouse and then together go on an investment spree for nickel or iron ore companies (WSA ,SMYor MXG). I like to see Owen head the new company. 

Plenty of guesses and hypothesis floating round, that's just one of them 

I like Prawn's strategy of waiting for the DOW to rally before capitalising. You reduce your gains but there's alot more certainty in that. smart, considering there is more risk on the downside than there is upside potential right now.

UBS and CreditS's purchase last couple days was the sign I needed to enter today, though tentatively. they've done their research(though its just research, its much more thorough than what I could do myself) or better still they are buying for a client on the prowl.


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## Nyden (9 November 2007)

eMark said:


> Oh the irony! I made the swap out of ZFX into PDN back in April, and I am still riding that rollercoaster. ZFX went up PDN went down. Now at least for me PDN is up while ZFX is down; as I am still sailing with that same ship being PDN. But in todays climate, I'm not sure which ship to sail. Good luck Nyden, you're welcome back into the PDN thread at any time. There may be a ship with your name on it again soon.





: Was waiting for one of you PDN boys to come over & give me guff!
I've got some pocket change I might throw over into PDN, but - I still think ZFX is potentially hot for some M&A; and at this price...not only as the aggressor! Especially now that the climate for it has certainly heated up 

I got out of PDN because it had just fallen and was in a total downtrend...I'm not sure if ZFX is in a downtrend; or rather following it's usual little zig-zag. We've had the zig, just gotta hold out & hope for the zag now!


Agreed Prawn, it's hard for me not to get angry at the buggers - they really don't seem to be thinking long term...most miners don't give out large (if any) dividends for a *reason*


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## thewahaman (9 November 2007)

eMark said:


> Oh the irony! I made the swap out of ZFX into PDN back in April, and I am still riding that rollercoaster. ZFX went up PDN went down. Now at least for me PDN is up while ZFX is down; as I am still sailing with that same ship being PDN. But in todays climate, I'm not sure which ship to sail. Good luck Nyden, you're welcome back into the PDN thread at any time. There may be a ship with your name on it again soon.




I'm on both the ZFX and PDN rollercoasters, as one goes up, the other goes down... Don't seem to be getting anywhere


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## porkpie324 (9 November 2007)

When comparing ZFX against other resource companies it's obvious that ZFX has not recovered from the August sell off, infact zinc stocks have not genenally recovered as well as nickel stocks so perhaps its a case of investing in the wrong sector.
 But more importantly to me is the sell off in ZFX on heavy volume the last 3 weeks. porkpie


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## edvisor (9 November 2007)

Looks like AXA has finished their ZFX portfolio rebalancing. Sellers are waning.
Market rally losing steam but ZFX SP is still gaining.

Commodity stocks like this is definitely not for the faint hearted. Probably best to look at it on a weekly basis instead of hour to hour/day to day movement. Not good for the heart


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## michael_selway (9 November 2007)

edvisor said:


> Looks like AXA has finished their ZFX portfolio rebalancing. Sellers are waning.
> Market rally losing steam but ZFX SP is still gaining.
> 
> Commodity stocks like this is definitely not for the faint hearted. Probably best to look at it on a weekly basis instead of hour to hour/day to day movement. Not good for the heart




Hi looks pretty good

*Earnings and Dividends Forecast (cents per share) 
2007 2008 2009 2010 
EPS 274.1 222.7 163.6 111.9 
DPS 140.0 130.0 94.8 57.5 *

thx

MS


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## overule (9 November 2007)

*Personally*, I think it's better to buy a put and call option with ZFX. That's what i did this afternoon. ZFX can only go one way, ie up all the way or vice-versa. I am confident that i will get something out of either call or put option.


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## mfp (11 November 2007)

ZFX finally had a very strong day on a relatively moderate rise for our market on Friday. However, with the DOW off 223 Friday our market will no doubt have another very tough day Monday. How do people think ZFX will go? Another massive drop to give up all Friday's gain? a more modest drop? possibly even a positive close? With all the beating it has copped since going ex-div it surely deserves to perform well on a negative day for a change. Opinions would be much appreciated.


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## Nyden (11 November 2007)

mfp said:


> ZFX finally had a very strong day on a relatively moderate rise for our market on Friday. However, with the DOW off 223 Friday our market will no doubt have another very tough day Monday. How do people think ZFX will go? Another massive drop to give up all Friday's gain? a more modest drop? possibly even a positive close? With all the beating it has copped since going ex-div it surely deserves to perform well on a negative day for a change. Opinions would be much appreciated.




To be honest I'm *hoping* this BHP/RIO business will keep our markets afloat for the week, I'm not exactly expecting a positive rally on Monday; but rather a neutral day. Our markets have had the weekend to relax after seeing all the red in the US, & I know I'm personally feeling rather positive because of BHP...who knows, maybe other investors are as well! 

Then again, we may plunge straight down 
ZFX could quite easily give up the 4% gains made on Friday, as someone else stated - this stock isn't for the faint hearted :


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## overule (11 November 2007)

Nyden said:


> Then again, we may plunge straight down
> ZFX could quite easily give up the 4% gains made on Friday, as someone else stated - this stock isn't for the faint hearted :




I believe so, US markets dropped overnight. With the low ZINC prices, this could happen easily. I am sure most ZFX's shareholders (short term ZFX holders) are disappointed with the SP at the moment. Thus, they will be happy to sell eventhough they will incur a loss.


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## Nyden (11 November 2007)

I'm just anxiously waiting out to see who takes the reigns over as CEO (apparently before end of 07, so - not too far off).

I feel that the right person being made CEO could have a fair influence over the SP - either way 

True Overule, but - the whole BHP/RIO acquisition; *may* keep resource stocks afloat...let me hope


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## uhu (11 November 2007)

Well, more solid (+5%) gain is impossible in Monday - at least I in my opinion. See the Xstrata-Jub deal, what could lift (keep) share price for only a few days.
If ZFX would be an iron miner, probably, yes, but with zinc...no.

There is a chance (not too much) BHP won't able to buy RIO. So, as perhaps I wrote it earlier, BHP will "have to" buy a lot of midminers: Oxiana, Paladin ,Zinifex, Aluminia etc. In this way, ZFX share price can go back to the July maximum.

But, if I want to remain realistic, I think I have to wait until February. At his point, we will know the M&A plans.


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## stargazer (12 November 2007)

HI all



> Earnings and Dividends Forecast (cents per share)
> 2007 2008 2009 2010
> EPS 274.1 222.7 163.6 111.9
> DPS 140.0 130.0 94.8 57.5




From these figures above the EPS is reducing to 2010 and DPS also why is this good?

Cheers
SG


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## Nyden (12 November 2007)

stargazer said:


> HI all
> 
> 
> 
> ...




Well, probably because it means even on *current* prospects they're still going to be making good money for a few years. But, does this factor in mines that aren't yet fully producing? Or producing at all? And it obviously doesn't factor in the potential profits from whatever they end up acquiring 

Was just talking about this CEO issue last night;

http://www.theaustralian.news.com.au/story/0,25197,22741169-5005200,00.html



> Font Size: Decrease Increase Print Page: Print Andrew Trounson | November 12, 2007
> LEAD and zinc mining giant Zinifex is close to naming a new chief executive, with the board in talks with a final candidate, reportedly ex-WMC boss Andrew Michelmore.
> 
> Getting a new CEO in place is an increasingly urgent priority for Zinifex with consolidation in the global mining sector set to peak as the world's biggest miner, BHP Billiton, tries to convince rival Rio Tinto to agree to a $US360 billion ($394 billion) merger.
> ...


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## stargazer (12 November 2007)

Thanks Nyden

I was just getting a handle to understand why those figures were good and you explained it.

Cheers
SG


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## overule (12 November 2007)

ZFX keeps dropping. It seems that even RIO/BHP is not holding it up.

What do you guys think ?

I think it has dropped to its lowest level. This looks odd for ZFX


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## vishalt (12 November 2007)

I think ZFX has fallen out of favor from the stockmarket, I don't think institutions really like unhedged, single resource producers. 

I think it'll turnaround when ZFX starts mining copper, but at this price ... OXR's mouth must start watering because its looking quite cheap.

The market is only focusing on Rio at the moment!


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## uhu (12 November 2007)

In this way, Zinifex will be a target. if share price will be around 12-13, an other player can pay +30-40% premium...


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## overule (12 November 2007)

I don't think the share price will go that low. ZFX is very volatile but strong demand for ZINC will be expected shortly.


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## uhu (13 November 2007)

There is a phrase but I am afraid I can't cite it exactly:
Speak the Prophet from you (if I translate tha arabs phrase to hungarian and after it to English...I hope you understand what I want to say.)

Ok, maybe 12-13 is too low (but who thought a few months ago if ZFX dropped to 15?). 

But Zinifex can be a target...13 or 15 or 16 aud...it's the same for a big player.


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## DionM (13 November 2007)

ZFX is virtually at the same level it was at now during the August correction.  I suspect there is a bit of support around this mark.

The pre-open at present looks promising too.


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## Nyden (13 November 2007)

DionM said:


> ZFX is virtually at the same level it was at now during the August correction.  I suspect there is a bit of support around this mark.
> 
> The pre-open at present looks promising too.





 $13 doesn't seem too far from a possibility at this point!
How much further can this drop? Out of favor seems like a major understatement.
P/E ratio is 5.85 now


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## DionM (13 November 2007)

Nyden said:


> $13 doesn't seem too far from a possibility at this point!
> How much further can this drop? Out of favor seems like a major understatement.
> P/E ratio is 5.85 now




Ah ignore the first 30-60mins of trading, then you'll get a real picture of what the market thinks.

There is support around the $14 mark, based on the last 12mths chart.  It would take a lot for it to drop.

I'm just wondering whether to top up or not, I bought in during August at these same prices.  Mind you, that was with the lure of dividends (just paid), so not as good a value at this point in time.


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## Nyden (13 November 2007)

DionM said:


> Ah ignore the first 30-60mins of trading, then you'll get a real picture of what the market thinks.
> 
> There is support around the $14 mark, based on the last 12mths chart.  It would take a lot for it to drop.
> 
> I'm just wondering whether to top up or not, I bought in during August at these same prices.  Mind you, that was with the lure of dividends (just paid), so not as good a value at this point in time.




Lately, I've found this not to be true.
Seems - at least with my stocks, when a stock has an awful open; it has an awful close. These aren't normal times we're in right now :

I don't expect it to drop any further really, today at least - but my gosh it's painful to watch.


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## edvisor (13 November 2007)

Zinc prices fell over 3.5% last night, hence the drop today.

anyone's guess how much further the market needs to fall to reflect fair value in a high interest environment.

good to know that ZFX has alot of cash in the bank ready to pounce on 'corrected' resource companies.


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## overule (13 November 2007)

I know this is frustrating for short term traders. How low can this go ? ZFX sure has let many investors with wide-open eyes.


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## porkpie324 (13 November 2007)

It's anyones guess as to how low ZFX can go, all I no is that there in a downtrend on heavy volume. The quotes may look heavy on the buy side and low on the sell side, but there being sold off big time. porkpie


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## Ken (13 November 2007)

Would perila be a takeover target?

Is it fact that $1.40 is the divend?  so rought looking at 10%


So basically you can margin loan this stock and hold for life effectively costing you nothing to hold.


Basically dividend covers interest on loan.


So in the end when ZFX gets taken over or grows your holding the stock for free.


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## porkpie324 (13 November 2007)

Yep ZFX must qualify as a definant ASX 'DOG', so may well be worth a punt,The dividend is also well covered about twice if my memory seves me.
porkpie


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## uhu (13 November 2007)

I think we can forget the "supports", resistence levels" etc. Zinifex cuts its support level as (hungarian phrase) knife the butter.

Hm. But if things will go on in this way,miner can loose a lot until February. So, the Nyrstar money maybe in a very good place (I think in the bank...)


----------



## DionM (13 November 2007)

uhu said:


> I think we can forget the "supports", resistence levels" etc. Zinifex cuts its support level as (hungarian phrase) knife the butter.
> 
> Hm. But if things will go on in this way,miner can loose a lot until February. So, the Nyrstar money maybe in a very good place (I think in the bank...)




I'm curious, why do you say it won't respect support levels (for my own learning more than anything).

It has tested the $14 area a couple of times of recently, including the August correction.


----------



## Nyden (13 November 2007)

DionM said:


> I'm curious, why do you say it won't respect support levels (for my own learning more than anything).
> 
> It has tested the $14 area a couple of times of recently, including the August correction.





Yes, it does seem to hold at $14 - still, not exactly a comfortable support level for someone who's entry point is high 16s :.

I've been tempted to top up at this price to lower my average; but - my conservative ways just don't allow for that! At least, in the current market climate.

Anyone read up on their presentation? They are apparently eye-ing potential acquisitions, and are as I had thought; after either production or near production mines.


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## Stan 101 (13 November 2007)

I just heard a report on ABC radio stating Citibank (group) have downgraded their half year to june 08 zinc prices 35%!!!!

Can anyone find anything to substantiate this?

cheers,


----------



## Stan 101 (13 November 2007)

Nyden said:


> Anyone read up on their presentation? They are apparently eye-ing potential acquisitions, and are as I had thought; after either production or near production mines.




CBH would be a nice pickup. It's operational, diversified and has plenty more on coming on tap..


if only


----------



## roland (13 November 2007)

I'm sort of, "of the opinion", that ZFX generally gets a double whammy on market weaknesses. Not only do they secumb to a general index fall - but often the falling market also drives metal prices down.

At the current time Zn is quite weak due to weakness in demand and anticipated over supply and increasing Chinese output. We have also seen in recent times a strengthening of the AU dollar and a weakness in the greenback - all put a cloud on Zinifex's profit expectations.

Now the odd thing is that ZFX is very profitable and since the Nyrstar deal thay are very well cashed up. Credit Suisse have been buying heavily, they sit out like a sore thumb as a take-over opportunity, on the other hand - they make no bones about looking for take-over targets themselves.

The SP is very low on the chart, I would wonder why, if you are a Zinifex follower, that you wouldn't be buying right now. I am - I bought a heap at $14.10 - wow, couldn't believe my luck to get it at such a price!!


----------



## Nyden (13 November 2007)

Stan 101 said:


> I just heard a report on ABC radio stating Citibank (group) have downgraded their half year to june 08 zinc prices 35%!!!!
> 
> Can anyone find anything to substantiate this?
> 
> cheers,





Yes, already read that this morning.

I think most people expected that? There's been talk of a zinc surplus for months : Not that I'm taking much notice of the opinion of Citi at the moment


----------



## bigdog (14 November 2007)

Today's Herald Sun

http://www.news.com.au/heraldsun/story/0,21985,22754890-664,00.html


*Zinifex outlook remains cloudy*
Felicity Williams

November 14, 2007 12:00am

ZINIFEX'S soon-to-be-named chief executive could have his work cut out - the mining giant has warned that lower zinc prices and a falling US dollar will hit sales revenue.

And the fact that analysts are tipping Zinifex as a prime takeover target in the rapidly-consolidating resources sector could further complicate life for the lead and zinc miner's new boss.

Zinifex's acting chief executive, Tony Barnes, said yesterday that zinc prices might fall as more supply came from new mines and expansions.

"Lower zinc prices and higher Australian dollar-US dollar exchange rates will lower revenue," he said in a presentation to investors.

"Cost pressures persist - a similar rate of increase to financial year 2007 is expected."

Zinifex shares fell as low as $14.05 before rebounding to finish the day at $14.38.

Mr Barnes has been filling in as chief executive in addition to his regular duties as chief finance officer since the departure of former Zinifex boss Greig Gailey in June.

Zinifex expects to appoint its new chief executive by the end of the year, with former WMC Resources head Andrew Michelmore now considered the likely choice. 

Former BHP executive Chris Lynch was rumoured to be frontrunner for the position until he accepted the top job at toll road operator Transurban last month.

Citigroup analyst Clarke Wilkins yesterday downgraded Zinifex's target share price to $15.20 from $18.50 and reduced his forecast for 2007-08 earnings per share to $1.72 from $2.50.

"Our estimates and target price for Zinifex have been mauled by a 29 per cent downgrade to our 2008 zinc price forecast to $US1.25 per pound from $US1.75 per pound previously," Mr Wilkins said in a note sent to investors.

Zinifex has previously been tipped as a potential merger partner for fellow Melbourne-based miner Oxiana, as well as a possible takeover target for Anglo-Swiss mining giant Xstrata.

The company pocketed some $1.6 billion from the sale of its smelting assets via the public listing of Nyrstar in Belgium last month.

Mr Wilkins also noted that Zinifex's bulging cash wallet of around $2.6 billion gave it "substantial options" to undertake its own M&A activity, fast-track projects or return capital to shareholders.

Zinifex reported a $1.3 billion net profit in 2006-07, up 24 per cent on the previous financial year on the back of higher zinc and lead prices.


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## Nyden (14 November 2007)

bigdog said:


> Today's Herald Sun
> 
> http://www.news.com.au/heraldsun/story/0,21985,22754890-664,00.html
> 
> ...





I still believe that none of these little target share prices, and potential profit analysing by these "experts" - does *not* factor in all the potential that Zinifex's coffers could bring in. As the article mentioned - they could fast track current mines, acquire mines very close to production, or even in it; these sorts of ventures would bring in (potentially) *non*-zinc profits.

Heck, I believe this to be a 'stable' stock though - in the respect that...worst comes to worst, one could sell out next pre-dividend; & hopefully the holiday season will be good to the SP on top of that.

 Target share price of 15.2? It was just at that 2-3 days ago! And if it plays nicely & participates in today's rally we surely won't be far off already.


----------



## DionM (14 November 2007)

Nyden said:


> I still believe that none of these little target share prices, and potential profit analysing by these "experts" - does *not* factor in all the potential that Zinifex's coffers could bring in. As the article mentioned - they could fast track current mines, acquire mines very close to production, or even in it; these sorts of ventures would bring in (potentially) *non*-zinc profits.




I wonder how the SP would be going if they hadn't done what they did to get that capital though (Nyrstar)?  Double-edged sword.

But yes, it will be interesting to see what they do with it.  Perhaps the market suspects a capital return hence the depressed share price?  Personally I don't want more money, I am very happy for them to maintain their current dividends.



> Heck, I believe this to be a 'stable' stock though - in the respect that...worst comes to worst, one could sell out next pre-dividend; & hopefully the holiday season will be good to the SP on top of that.




Well it is a miner who is producing, and according to recent investor info they have secured future sources of Zinc so it's not like they're going to run out of raw material any time soon.  And don't forget Credit-Suisse buying in just recently as well.



> Target share price of 15.2? It was just at that 2-3 days ago! And if it plays nicely & participates in today's rally we surely won't be far off already.




And it has been their "previous target" ($18.50) recently as well.

Still deciding whether to top up or not.


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## roland (14 November 2007)

The Drake presentation is just a re-hash of known projects - nothing new, but has put a blip of interest on the chart.


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## leongu (14 November 2007)

bigdog said:


> Today's Herald Sun
> 
> http://www.news.com.au/heraldsun/story/0,21985,22754890-664,00.html




*Zinifex outlook remains cloudy*
Felicity Williams
Zinifex has previously been tipped as a potential merger partner for fellow Melbourne-based miner Oxiana, as well as a possible takeover target for Anglo-Swiss mining giant Xstrata.



Credit-Suisse , Anglo-Swiss, UBS, are all from Switzerland , is there any trick behind that?


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## overule (14 November 2007)

Looking at that,

I don't think ZFX is able to go back to the SP the day before the dividend. Having said that, things might change quickly.


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## rico01 (15 November 2007)

Looks like ZFX could be a takeover target with the share price up over 11%
  and no announcement

    Somethings up


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## Rafa (15 November 2007)

up 2 dollars now!!!
what is going on.... 

can't see any major news coming out... very strange... why didn't i buy yesterday after having my finger on the trigger all day. .


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## rico01 (15 November 2007)

I just rang my broker and they said there is a very strong rumour that exstrata are taking a look at ZFX


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## DionM (15 November 2007)

All aboard the ZFX rollercoaster!

I knew I should have topped up.  

Gift horse, mouth, all that kind of stuff.

Ah well ... at least I have some.


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## legs (15 November 2007)

rico01 said:


> I just rang my broker and they said there is a very strong rumour that exstrata are taking a look at ZFX




i knew i hung onto the for a reason.lol. go good thing...go! I got in during august slump at 15.80 so this will be a nice tidy profit!


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## flinders (15 November 2007)

:now the buy/sell about level and approx $150 million gone through ,perhaps no rumour! traders just want an exciting morning


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## backslash (15 November 2007)

Zinifex: Haven't Received Any Offer From Any Company
216 words
15 November 2007
11:35
Dow Jones International News
English
(c) 2007 Dow Jones & Company, Inc.

SYDNEY (Dow Jones)--Australian zinc miner Zinifex Ltd. (ZFX.AU) said Thursday it hasn't received any takeover bids amid widespread market speculation that smaller rival Oxiana Ltd. (OXR.AU) is planning a bid that could value Zinifex at A$9.7 billion (US$8.7 billion).

"We haven't received any offer from any company," a Zinifex spokesman told Dow Jones Newswires.

At least six traders said there was speculation that Oxiana plans to offer four of its shares plus A$4 cash for each Zinifex share, which would value Zinifex around A$20 a share.

"I cannot say that we have any knowledge of that (rumor)," the Zinifex spokesman said.

An Oxiana spokeswoman said she was aware of the market speculation, but had no comment.

Oxiana boss Owen Hegarty said in a response to a question in July that he may be interested in acquiring Zinifex and saw synergies between the two groups.


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## Ken (15 November 2007)

I bought 500 shares at $14.29 because of the yield factor.

Now i have 10% returns + a paper profit.

But in reality ZFX is so volatile you never count your chickens. If this takeover rumour is squashed then ZFX is going to plummet again, and then i buy more.

There is some crazy buying going on.

If Rio Tinto is a takeover target. ZFX is the next best thing.


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## Nicks (15 November 2007)

backslash said:


> Zinifex: Haven't Received Any Offer From Any Company
> 216 words
> 15 November 2007
> 11:35
> ...





Hmmm interesting. Sounds like the 'rumour' hasn't its origins at Zinifex, they are happy to comment. Maybe not from Xtrata... but Oxiana have a no comment.

I reckon it's on!


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## legs (15 November 2007)

Nicks said:


> Hmmm interesting. Sounds like the 'rumour' hasn't its origins at Zinifex, they are happy to comment. Maybe not from Xtrata... but Oxiana have a no comment.
> 
> I reckon it's on!




It's exactly how the BHP-RIO happened...rumours appear and ZFX take off, then it will be confirmed within a day or two and you hope your on the boat, at least before confirmation. It's too big a move to be all rumour I believe.


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## bvbfan (15 November 2007)

Suppose OXR does offer $20 (4 OXR +$4) 

Doesn't seem much of a premium since the $4 would likely be coming from ZFX cash raised from Nystar sale. $2billion by my rough calcs.

Great if OXR can pull it off


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## overule (15 November 2007)

Have a feeling there will be a takeover or the SP won't surge that high.  

For those who hold on.. good luck.


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## adobee (15 November 2007)

They seem to be the biggest volumes I have seen in a while!
I have been holding a few but will top up today ..


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## michael_selway (15 November 2007)

backslash said:


> Zinifex: Haven't Received Any Offer From Any Company
> 216 words
> 15 November 2007
> 11:35
> ...




$20.00 per share sounds reasonable

*Earnings and Dividends Forecast (cents per share) 
2007 2008 2009 2010 
EPS 274.1 217.5 160.8 111.9 
DPS 140.0 130.0 90.4 57.5 *

thx

MS


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## ozrob (15 November 2007)

backslash said:


> At least six traders said there was speculation that Oxiana plans to offer four of its shares plus A$4 cash for each Zinifex share, which would value Zinifex around A$20 a share.




That sounds like it could be more than just a rumour, glad I topped up my holding last week at $14.60.


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## mneal (15 November 2007)

ozrob said:


> That sounds like it could be more than just a rumour, glad I topped up my holding last week at $14.60.




"We firmly believe that Zinifex is a logical incremental step towards achieving Oxiana's growth vision,'' Credit Suisse analysts led by Michael Slifirski said in the report. "The acquisition risk involved in acquiring a familiar business is significantly lower when expanding within the existing commodity portfolio.'' 

http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601081&sid=a0uP9Wqvoy30&refer=australia

Looks like Credit Suisse, who became a substantial shareholder of Zinifex recently also had something to say about this.


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## YELNATS (15 November 2007)

rico01 said:


> I just rang my broker and they said there is a very strong rumour that exstrata are taking a look at ZFX




As a longterm holder of both OXR and ZFX, I would prefer that it was Xstrata behind the offer, rather than OXR. I'm not sure that OXR would have the management expertise to integrate such a large international business that ZFX now is.

Also, I would think that an offer for ZFX would have to be $25 + to be acceptable to ZFX shareholders bearing in mind they already nearly hit $22 last July and also the long term value of the business. I for one would not be happy with only a $20 offer.


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## Stan 101 (15 November 2007)

certainly a jump... I've been lucky of late. I just jumped into ZFX yesterday and have topped up again today. This share is certainly a roller coaster. 

Befeits of a potential Oxiama bid? Do you think there will be more than one offer for the golden girl of zinc mining?


Cheers,


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## mneal (15 November 2007)

News of a CEO appointment - Mr Michelmore as expected though. I wonder if this news will affect the price tomorrow?


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## prawn_86 (15 November 2007)

mneal said:


> Mr Michelmore




Isn't he the one who also make 'documentaries'?  

If so i bet that he could put a good spin on ZFX.....


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## Col Lector (15 November 2007)

Quite the comic Mr Prawn....! BTW ZFX price sensitive ann is pending....released after mkt close. Could be interesting.....

Edit:Looks like a response to speeding ticket...


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## dastrix (15 November 2007)

Very strange! Glad I got in a few days ago at 14.28, nice little ride. The future is interesting 

Oh and Hello everyone!


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## roland (15 November 2007)

Even if nothing comes of it, the VWAP of $15.87 with the large volume should provide a little more support at this level. I was happy to make use of the great SP rise today with selling some of my lower parcels. So I am now happy for it to move either way


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## legs (15 November 2007)

roland said:


> Even if nothing comes of it, the VWAP of $15.87 with the large volume should provide a little more support at this level. I was happy to make use of the great SP rise today with selling some of my lower parcels. So I am now happy for it to move either way





They know nothing about the increase in price.

http://www.asx.com.au/asx/statistics/showAnnouncementPDF.do?idsID=00783559


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## overule (15 November 2007)

Historically with ZFX,

Such a high volume means the SP will head up higher. See it yourself incase i am wrong.


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## Nicks (15 November 2007)

Zinifex is denying and knowledge of an offer, but just the same Oxiana isnt!

I still reckon it's on. ZFX is good buying at this price. Personally, i'd be happy with $20+.


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## legs (15 November 2007)

Nicks said:


> Zinifex is denying and knowledge of an offer, but just the same Oxiana isnt!
> 
> I still reckon it's on. ZFX is good buying at this price. Personally, i'd be happy with $20+.




http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601081&sid=a0uP9Wqvoy30&refer=australia  :-

"Oxiana doesn't comment on market rumors, Natalie Worley, a spokeswoman for Melbourne-based Oxiana said today. "

It is Oxiana's policy, and always has been, to not comment on market rumours. This means nothing. It could be on, would be great, or not.


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## uhu (15 November 2007)

Can is this true?
Wel, it's a bit funny. I have been waiting for a long time....but when I bought ZFX and OXR in the summer, I hoped ZFX will be the buyer.
So, there are some articles in the main newspapers, but maybe you can "smell" better in Australia than me in Hungary.

So, without exact facts, what are your noise saying?


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## Nyden (15 November 2007)

Well, to be honest - I did expect a rise in price once the CEO position was made official. But - no where near 11%. 11% is just far too high a rise for a company of this size to just be on a random hunch of something.

Something might very well be in the works here - could be insiders getting on board :

It isn't a sure thing though - no one's announced intentions... ZFX denied having knowledge of anything. Certainly looks like it though. If there is something in the works, we could expect an ann of intentions from a company in the coming days.

I personally *hope* it's OXR - simply because I hold them, and like their fundamentals. I don't want to get stuck with some company I have no knowledge of, would be nice to consolidate 2 of my holdings into 1 as well : Cheaper when it comes to time of sale!


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## shinobi346 (15 November 2007)

uhu said:


> Can is this true?
> Wel, it's a bit funny. I have been waiting for a long time....but when I bought ZFX and OXR in the summer, I hoped ZFX will be the buyer.
> So, there are some articles in the main newspapers, but maybe you can "smell" better in Australia than me in Hungary.
> 
> So, without exact facts, what are your noise saying?




I know you're not talking to me but..

Actually for me, I'm glad OXR is rumoured to be the buyer and not the other way around. If they make a scrip offer as per the rumours say that should result on OXR going down while ZFX heads the other way, similar to what we're seeing now with BHP and RIO. When that happens I'll have my hands in both pots and at the end of the day, if it all goes ahead as planned, we'll still have ZFX in the form of OXR but without the management. Hopefully they'll be equally as good running a larger and diverse (global) company.


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## Nyden (15 November 2007)

shinobi346 said:


> I know you're not talking to me but..
> 
> Actually for me, I'm glad OXR is the buyer. If they make a scrip offer as per the rumours say that should result on OXR going down while ZFX heads the other way, similar to what we're seeing now with BHP and RIO. When that happens I'll have my hands in both pots and at the end of the day, if it all goes ahead as planned, we'll still have ZFX in the form of OXR but without the management. Hopefully they'll be equally as good running a larger and diverse (global) company.





Watch the wording there, sounds awfully like you're stating it as a fact in your first sentance! : None of us know if a bid is even in the works, little alone if there is a buyer.

I'm just concerned people may read this, and think it's already happening


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## shinobi346 (15 November 2007)

Understood, agreed and I've edited my post. I wasn't meaning to say something else there and no I don't have any inside information. I'm only commenting on a rumour, guys and what mightttt happen.


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## vishalt (15 November 2007)

This ought to keep you ZFX holders happy !

I think Oxiana and Zinifex need each other to survive, they are marriage material. 

OXR has the long-term capacity and copper/gold assets, Zinifex milks money out of its Zinc/smelting operations and its chosen some really nice small hopefuls like Wolfden and it has a fair few projects coming online. 

Zinifox would be a great stock!


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## uhu (15 November 2007)

Last day there was an other event what could mobilise ZFX and OXR share prices: the earthquake in Chile, so, there were (are) jitters about copper-zinc supply.
So, I think aussie miners had to go up without the roumor. So, two things will influence the tomorrow trading: 
- the roumor will continue or not
- news about the s am mines

So, these aspects can lift more ZFX prices or can send back to the hell...well, the likely scenario is: large volume, profit realising, but there won't be dropping.


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## overule (15 November 2007)

Personally, I think i am well equipped with a call and put option . Either way, I will be alright. Thinking about tomorrow, ZFX might surge up again. If not, it will stay within what it's at the moment. Honestly, i don't expect a big drop tomorrow.


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## Ben L (16 November 2007)

I just bought on Wednesday @$14.40. Very nice rise, should see a few more rises on Friday. So glad I did buy only wish I had more money to buy more...


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## uhu (16 November 2007)

Well, I don't tell you my entry price to ZFX...it was very-very high. 

So, if OXR-ZFX roumor is true, maybe I will be given back my money...


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## legs (16 November 2007)

Was a bad day for all mining stocks so the 4.35% fall wasn't too bad. Nothing came out, but I am expecting something over the weekend at least, if it is happening.
Volume was 2x normal, so still cooking something.


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## Nyden (16 November 2007)

uhu said:


> Well, I don't tell you my entry price to ZFX...it was very-very high.
> 
> So, if OXR-ZFX roumor is true, maybe I will be given back my money...




Don't be ashamed mate - I re-bought in a while ago at about 17.5! Your entry can't be much higher then that 

I'm doubting if anything is happening legs - one article mentioned a lot of this could be due to shorts. 

Stressful weekend! Waiting for the answer from the PNG government for FNT, waiting for a takeover bid for/from ZFX, and I also hold OXR! Ugh, no rest for the wicked eh :


I need a holiday, anyone know anything about that new P&O liner? :


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## roland (16 November 2007)

Hi Guys,
Zinifex is really a great stock to trade. I 've been buying and selling Zinifex for more than 3 years now - and truthfully, have never made a loss.

At times I thought I was done, in fact my highest buy was at $19.95 - wow - that was only 4 months ago 

I have been blessed with dividends nearly every 6 months, except the most recent one as it became obvious the SP was starting to struggle and I ditched out all at a profit and missed out on the dividend. 

Having traded ZFX for so long, just like any stock, you get to know it and you become more aware  of the market conditions that effect the SP, the emotions of the traders and most importantly you develop a "gut" feeling for the stock - it's a bit hard to explain and a lot of technical traders will be in total disagreement.

My approach with Zinifex is never to go in too heavy, pick a low entry point and take your profit if it rises. If it falls, then grab another packet. Trading from here depends on your budget. For me, I will continue picking up packets every $0.50 or so as it falls. If I am going for dividends I will leave an "orphan" behind (my lowest packet) and play it out to kill the top packet - either by waiting it out or to average the remaining packets to free up the cash and make a profit. Then the cycle starts again.

Patience has always been the key for me with Zinifex, I generally won't buy on a green day, or a rumour day - just too many profit takers around to give you a headache.

I am still holding some ZFX, my average is around $16.50, so currently I have a buy target of below $15.00. For people who got caught in the rumour hype, I would suggest they hold, average down at this level (if they have the budget). There should be no need to take a loss on Zinifex - be patient, it really is a great stock

These are just my personal opinions and are not to be treated as anything more. I am not an advisor, please do your own research.


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## brodion (16 November 2007)

Green day?????????????? Whats that excuse my ignorance.. If ones got 100k to invest at what amounts shell one enter and re-buy if it goes down????
Talk to me if ur still logged in???


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## Ben L (17 November 2007)

I think a green day is when the stock goes up as appose to a red day when it goes down. I just hope it goes up more on Monday..


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## overule (17 November 2007)

Firmly believe that the unusual volume (2 times more) should cause a spike again unless Zinc prices drop badly.


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## michael_selway (17 November 2007)

roland said:


> Hi Guys,
> Zinifex is really a great stock to trade. I 've been buying and selling Zinifex for more than 3 years now - and truthfully, have never made a loss.
> 
> At times I thought I was done, in fact my highest buy was at $19.95 - wow - that was only 4 months ago
> ...




Yes its still a great stock

*Earnings and Dividends Forecast (cents per share) 
2007 2008 2009 2010 
EPS 274.1 200.1 156.0 110.0 
DPS 140.0 130.0 90.4 60.0 *




> Date: 16/11/2007
> Author: Andrew Trounson
> Source: The Australian --- Page: 25
> It has been speculated that Zinifex could be acquired by Oxiana or Xstrata.Shares in the Australian lead and zinc miner increased $A1.69 to $A16.09 on 15November 2007 amid rumours that Oxiana is about to launch a four-for-one scripbid with a cash incentive of $A4 a share. Swiss group Xstrata is also believedto be interested in Zinifex. Zinifex meanwhile announced the appointment ofAndrew Michelmore as its new CEO. Michelmore, who defended a bid from Xstrata ashead of WMC Resources, said he will focus on maximising value from existingassets and seeking opportunities for growth
> ...


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## Benelong (19 November 2007)

Can someone please enlighten me on something? When the rumour came out that OXR might gobble up ZFX, how is it that a rumour can get so specific in detail as to name the potential terms of the offer i.e 4 for 1 plus $4? I'm sure it would have been enough to just mention that there may be a takeover for the price to skyrocket. Considering now that the stock is back to its usual recent downward trend not a few days after the rumour, who's behind this rumour and what right do they have to mention it at all?


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## nizar (19 November 2007)

michael_selway said:


> Yes its still a great stock
> 
> *Earnings and Dividends Forecast (cents per share)
> 2007 2008 2009 2010
> ...




LOL im not into fundies anymore but surely decreasing EPS and decreasing DPS don't make this a great stock?

$21+ maybe was the peak.


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## overule (19 November 2007)

I would agree so unless there's another takeover rumours, i see ZFX diving. Probably bad timing for those traders who got in just for dividends.


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## Nyden (20 November 2007)

Well, someone had better announce something soon : With Zinc ever-plummeting, this one's going to be hard pressed staying afloat unless ZFX announce some profitable acquisitions, or someone else announcing the acquisition of ZFX!

I might just have to change my signature smiley back to dead horse if ZFX drops today the length Zinc did - and with the dow behaving the way it did last night; certainly looks to be a probability


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## mishu (20 November 2007)

"China is likely to remove a 5 percent tax rebate on exports of super-high-grade refined zinc from January, while zinc output in the country rose 19 percent in the first nine months of this year."
http://africa.reuters.com/business/news/usnBAN923973.html

Possibly Chinese producers are dumping on the zinc market to cash in on the remaining rebate period.


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## Nyden (20 November 2007)

mishu said:


> "China is likely to remove a 5 percent tax rebate on exports of super-high-grade refined zinc from January, while zinc output in the country rose 19 percent in the first nine months of this year."
> http://africa.reuters.com/business/news/usnBAN923973.html
> 
> Possibly Chinese producers are dumping on the zinc market to cash in on the remaining rebate period.




Saw that article last night, gosh - Zinc is just getting a beating from every angle! Perhaps if companies better hoarded the stuff, & didn't over saturate the market so much we'd have a better price 

Well, I'll know what my long-term position will be come Feb-March; if their acquisitions (or have been taken over  are positive enough; I'll stick around. If not, I'll be out in the next pre-dividend run 

Hopefully by then, we'll know if Zinc truly is doomed as well!


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## overule (20 November 2007)

I think ZFX will keep failing through the end of December given record low Zinc prices . What do you guys think ?


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## Nyden (20 November 2007)

overule said:


> I think ZFX will keep failing through the end of December given record low Zinc prices . What do you guys think ?




I think ZFX held up *very* well today, all things considering. 3.7% drop was better than I was expecting, to be honest. 

I believe if all the M&A rumors fall through, well - ZFX might still yet weather this storm. Although the price of Zinc has been absolutely getting hammered; ZFX has increased their zinc production (obviously, contributing to the zinc price decline!) projections. The bottom line is; they are making money; and with a P/E ratio (not sure exactly) of under 6; I seriously cannot see it falling too much further. Then again, I've been proven wrong before! Many times 

This subprime mess has unfortunately created a system were very few stocks have a solid bottom anymore; support levels are fairly easily broken with an awful day.

Although; as always - I am hopeful about the future, despite my dead horse signature!


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## overule (20 November 2007)

Nyden said:


> The bottom line is; they are making money; and with a P/E ratio (not sure exactly) of under 6; I seriously cannot see it falling too much further. Then again, I've been proven wrong before! Many times





I don't agree with that how can they be making more money by producing more Zinc ? Zinc is at a surplus at the moment, supply outstripped demand


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## Nyden (20 November 2007)

overule said:


> I don't agree with that how can they be making more money by producing more Zinc ? Zinc is at a surplus at the moment, supply outstripped demand




Well, I'm not exactly sure on their specific financials - but, just because there's a surplus doesn't mean miners aren't selling it! It just means they're forced to sell it cheaper. ZFX itself doesn't hold the surplus, that it can't get rid of. (Correct me if I'm wrong though guys 

Base metals are traded - unlike Uranium, which is a totally different story. But, there are futures, & everything else with base metals.


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## overule (20 November 2007)

Yes, i agree with that.

Unless there's another speculation, i don't see ZFX rising anytime soon.


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## legs (20 November 2007)

http://www.businessspectator.com.au...wn-LME-slides-98CAB?OpenDocument?OpenDocument

Shanghai copper, zinc limit down, LME slides
Reuters 

SINGAPORE -- Shanghai copper and zinc futures fell by their daily limits and support for London futures faded as the appetite for risk shrank and investors bailed out of commodities. 

The January copper contract on the Shanghai Futures Exchange fell by its 4 percent daily limit to 55,780 yuan ($US7,513) from Monday's settlement. Copper for delivery in three months on the London Metal Exchange was down 3.2 percent, or $US20, at an eight-month low of $US6,575 after a 3.5 per cent slide on Monday. 

"Absolutely brutal" was how Investec described trading on the LME, adding: "The whole base metals complex received a thorough hammering as sustained selling dominated proceedings." 

Dealers said copper could fall to $US6,000 if markets fail to stabilise this week. 

"We have nudged below support at $US6,800, which suggests more falls to come. If we close below here for the week we could see copper down to $US6,000," a dealer in Hong Kong said. 

Angst about credit markets was heightened after Goldman Sachs cut Citigroup to "sell" and said the bank may have to write off $US15 billion against mortgage losses, while Swiss Re , the world's biggest reinsurer, revealed a $US1 billion writedown related to credit losses. 

"The concern is that if there are unknown losses still to be recorded, the risk aversion that has been present in markets will remain," said Tony Brennan, equity strategist at Deutsche Bank. 

In New York, COMEX copper for December delivery shed 17.80 cents, or 5.6 per cent, to settle at $US2.9835 a lb. 

"The fall is mostly psychologically driven, as consumption in China remains stable," said Shen Haihua, an analyst at Maike Futures. 

"Some funds have moved their copper positions to far forward contracts in London to avoid some of the risk inherent in the three-month contract," he said, adding that they were gambling that global output would be lower-than-expected due to production problems and higher energy costs. 

January's zinc contract was down by its 6 per cent daily limit at 18,205 yuan after falling limit down on Friday and Monday as investors fretted that a rumoured change in Chinese export taxes will leave the country awash with the metal. 

Benchmark LME zinc tumbled 3.6 percent or $US85 to $US2,270 a tonne, while lead dropped 2.5 per cent to $US2,965. 

"Lead was by far the biggest loser on the day, plummeting by almost 9 per cent as funds liquidated long positions," Investec said. 

Lead has come under pressure since Ivernia , which runs the Magellan lead mine in Western Australia, said last week that it was confident that it would get approval to restart shipments from the mine. 

Exports of lead concentrate were halted in March due to bird deaths near the port of Esperance possibly due to lead poisoning. 

Resource stocks were further pressured by declines in metals prices and worries that demand will be hurt by gathering gloom about the world economy. 

Mining giant BHP Billiton fell more than 3 per cent, Korea Zinc slid 7 per cent and Sumitomo Metal Mining fell 4.5 per cent. 


--------------------------------------------------------------------------------


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## overule (20 November 2007)

So it seems to me like ZFX is really in a worse situation than never before. Zinc and Lead fell terribly.


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## Nyden (20 November 2007)

overule said:


> So it seems to me like ZFX is really in a worse situation than never before. Zinc and Lead fell terribly.




Yes, but they obviously fell a wee bit too far. Seem to be recovering so far, and if we have a positive day in the US we could definately see a proper recovery. (Go to http://www.kitcometals.com/ for current prices)


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## uhu (21 November 2007)

Well, well...some journalist have written maybe there would be a surplus market by zinc...why I didn't beleivet it...

Although ZFX is a good company, this stock was my biggest mistake in this year. I bought it in JUly, before the crash (more than 19 aud) and I should have sell it when it was recovering before the ex-div day.

Now, the situation is very bad...I can only hope the M&A stories.


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## mneal (21 November 2007)

overule said:


> So it seems to me like ZFX is really in a worse situation than never before. Zinc and Lead fell terribly.




I'm not convinced that the drop in Zinc was sustainable. Someone commented that China was effectively dumping Zinc this year to take advantage of a tax benefit that is likely to be removed next year. It was only a 5% rebate though. 

Looking at the LME stock level charts they did have a sudden rise in stock at the beginning of November, however that has now plateued and is on the decline again, not suprislingly as Zinc is about half the price it was 1 year ago. 

Zinc production rose 19% this year, however it is unlikely to do the same next year,especially with these prices and also if the tax incentive in china is removed. Meaning demand may have a chance to catch up. 

I would agree that ZFX, unless the M&A rumours are more than just that, is unlikely to return to 18+ in the short term, however I am of the opinion that Zinc prices have at least bottomed out in the short term and we should see the price at least stabilise or increase slightly.


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## roland (21 November 2007)

Zinifex is on the rise just now, I think someone knows something that I don't know - doesn't sound very fair to me


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## legs (21 November 2007)

roland said:


> Zinifex is on the rise just now, I think someone knows something that I don't know - doesn't sound very fair to me




I'm happy as I have more than enough already to risk waiting. Is their something anyone here knows that they'd like to share???...LOLOLO


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## Rafa (21 November 2007)

Has anyone noticed a double bottom at 14???

Would be great if someone with technical knowhow can confirrm this... 
From the little i know if this is indeed confirmed, that would make for a price target of approx $24.

Naturally, a fall below 14 would mean the double bottom doesnt exist...


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## legs (21 November 2007)

Heres a graph showing the past 5 days. Volume is really building up half way through today... hopefully if it's not another rumour it can hold at these levels.


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## DionM (21 November 2007)

All aboard the ZFX rollercoaster .... again 

It's certainly proving that $14ish support level ...


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## legs (21 November 2007)

DionM said:


> All aboard the ZFX rollercoaster .... again
> 
> It's certainly proving that $14ish support level ...




It has, but it's over a very long period as shown here..the graph is for twelve months and shows the good support level.


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## profithunter (21 November 2007)

Rumours have surfaced again that Xstrata are planning a bid for ZFX, short sellers are panicking to cover their positions.


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## overule (21 November 2007)

I did not see any news. Why do you say that ? 
Please clarify.                              

Thank you


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## Rafa (21 November 2007)

From Dow Jones Newswire



> [Dow Jones] Zinifex (ZFX.AU) up 1.2% at A$14.91, fades from A$15.43 peak as takeover rumor fails to gain traction. Xstrata (XTA.LN) looked at Zinifex's Century Mine at the end of Pasminco. But industry insider says he hasn't heard of any move on Zinifex. Says Xstrata will have an open file on Zinifex, but that they have enough zinc supply for their portfolio for some years. Says Xstrata's outlook for zinc not as bullish as for other commodities. "I don't think they would do a Jubilee on zinc," says person, who declined to be named. Failure of ZFX rally today suggests it could retest major support at A$13.92 (38.2% retracement of lifetime rally). *But most analysts agree Zinifex should be well supported. "In a red-hot sector for M&A, it could be a use it or lose it as Zinifex is effectively a self funding takeover target with one-third of its market capitalization in cash," said Citigroup in a report last Friday.* (DWR)




so its not xstrata... but maybe someone else might be interested!
no further news from oxr


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## profithunter (21 November 2007)

0142 GMT [Dow Jones] Zinifex (ZFX.AU) up 4.3% at A$15.36 as takeover rumors resurface.
There's talk that Xstrata is planning a bid. "The rumors are around
again," says senior institutional trader. Traders piling into call options today,
based on the view that there is enough "smoke" to believe the rumors could be
true. Zinifex also seen as a strong fundamental buy. Zinifex surged to A$16.48 from
A$14.40 last Thursday on talk that Oxiana (OXR.AU) or Xstrata (XTA.LN) was planning a
bid. Xstrata has refused to comment. Zinifex said last week it has had no approaches.
(DWR) 



speculation!


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## overule (21 November 2007)

Yes, another speculation again.

Don't see any positive news with ZFX. So any of you guys grab more shares/options ?


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## uhu (22 November 2007)

Well, a few weeks ago I wrote a very large drop is not impoossible.

Now, these are the facts:
- grizzly-feeling in USA (FRE, Fed)
- zinc and lead -5,7% in one day. (Copper "only" -3,9)

I will be realy brave to check my portfolio in tomorrow morning...

My tip is:
ZFX: - 8% (must give back the yesterday strange surge)

Well, if ZFX won't stop at 14.60-70, is it possible to drop to one-year low (10.90 aud)?

Sorry, my English is not good.


----------



## Kipp (22 November 2007)

From Bloomberg...
Zinc fell as much as 5 percent to $2,242 a ton, the lowest since March 13, 2006, on uncertainty surrounding China's export policy regarding the metal. 

Suspended in Shanghai 

``The sharp fall in zinc prices is being attributed to rumors that the Chinese central government will abolish a 5 percent tax rebate on high-purity zinc early next year,'' John Meyer, head of resources analysis at Fairfax IS Plc in London, said today in a daily report. 

Chinese traders are selling the metal surplus before the change begins, Meyer said. Zinc on the Shanghai Futures Exchange fell by the daily trading limit yesterday and was suspended from trading today after the decline exceeded the maximum allowed by the exchange in the previous three sessions. 

Zinc was in a deficit of 11,500 tons in September, the WBMS said. In the first nine months, there was a surplus of 50,000 tons, it said." 

A tough time to be an unhedged Zinc producer, takeover talks or not.  Without the Chinese flooding the market at present, I can't understand why prices are so low when Zinc inventories are still at 80K?


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## joeborgo (23 November 2007)

what are everybodys thoughts in regards to the takeover speculation. do you think that in the current climate it is still a possibility or was it all just speculation? if so when do you think it will happen.


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## eMark (23 November 2007)

joeborgo said:


> what are everybodys thoughts in regards to the takeover speculation. do you think that in the current climate it is still a possibility or was it all just speculation? if so when do you think it will happen.




Hi Joe

I doubt you'll receive many responses to your question. If I were you I would look back on the last 4-5 pages of this thread. That will give you the exactly the answers that you are looking for.


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## roland (23 November 2007)

eMark said:


> Hi Joe
> 
> I doubt you'll receive many responses to your question. If I were you I would look back on the last 4-5 pages of this thread. That will give you the exactly the answers that you are looking for.




Yeah, well - Zinifex has been analysed to death here. It has probably bottomed again today, so I picked up a few. Anyone asking about take over  rumours are so out of the loop that responses are probably not likely to happen. Such a high profile stock like Zinifex would have close to front page news on any speculation - don't expect any unknown insights from any forum. Buying a stock like Zinifex on forum speculation is prone to disaster. 

This stock demands some respect and a lot of research to see if it fits your portfolio


----------



## joeborgo (24 November 2007)

roland said:


> Yeah, well - Zinifex has been analysed to death here. It has probably bottomed again today, so I picked up a few. Anyone asking about take over  rumours are so out of the loop that responses are probably not likely to happen. Such a high profile stock like Zinifex would have close to front page news on any speculation - don't expect any unknown insights from any forum. Buying a stock like Zinifex on forum speculation is prone to disaster.
> 
> This stock demands some respect and a lot of research to see if it fits your portfolio




You have missed the point to the question. FYI I already own stock and have done so for over 18 months and didnt need forum sites to make up my mind to buy it. I have already read most of the pages on this forum and make the observation that there has been speculation of a take over for a fair while. No need to get smart Im simply asking what other forum members think not definite answers.


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## Nyden (25 November 2007)

The advantages of global warming 
This is obviously very long term, but - providing the price holds up...that's what I'm in for.

http://www.thestar.com/ArcticInPeril/article/279415



> The potential for mineral development is also huge for Nunavut.
> 
> Zinifex, an Australian mining company that had more than $1.3 billion in worldwide profits last year, recently bought Wolfden Resources for $358 million. Wolfden holds the rights to the copper, gold, silver and zinc deposits at Izok and High Lake on the Nunavut side of the Northwest Territories border.


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## 3MT (25 November 2007)

joeborgo said:


> what are everybodys thoughts in regards to the takeover speculation. do you think that in the current climate it is still a possibility or was it all just speculation? if so when do you think it will happen.




Your educated guess would be as good as anyone else's on this forum.
Lots have been written on ZFX as you know and its common sense to see ZFX a takeover target with its assets and healthy balance sheet. 

I think with the new CEO appointment, it seems ZFX would become less attractive as a takeover target (he would fight for a large premium) and more of a predator.

If you were looking for takeover targets to buy I think there are more likely companies elsewhere. However, anything can happen. If ZFX keeps falling it may be wise for xyz to contemplate on building a strategic stake.

But just for the fun on being on a forum, I am going to suggest that the OXR/xtrata speculation was purposely leaked out to gauge ZFX's response. Now that they know Michelmore aint going to sell for cheap, I doubt they would want to contemplate on a ZFX bid at this stage unless private equity comes on board which in this climate is less probable than more probable.

A more likely bid would be for one of the nickel companies, SMY, WSA or even OXR if it stays low.


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## porkpie324 (25 November 2007)

I have to agree with the above post but would definatly add MCR, getting back to ZFX after the 15th flurry ZFX have continued the downtrend, the SP is getting close to the $14.05 low of the 13th. There's also been weakness with other zinc/lead producers CBH, JML KZL. porkpie


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## porkpie324 (27 November 2007)

An interesting point is forming with ZFX, could be a double bottom forming here, if the SP bounces off on good volume may well be a good entry (long) coming up. However if the SP continues trending down the next underlying support is about $10.50. porkpie


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## roland (27 November 2007)

Well Zinifex got hammered again today - even with a 4.8% increase in the price of Zinc. The AGM glossed over the problems of short term weakness of Zinc and expected over-supply and their fall in resource prospects. I wonder if the Drake relationship was formed due to the loss of exploration expertise, since they have been a miner and not a prospector for so long. Of course Drake are going to be taking a reasonable slice of the pie with any new finds.

I can't help but feeling Zinifex are taking a bit of a "scatter gun" approach with finding these new mining prospects - re: the Qld announcement today. I am hoping that we will have an announcement soon of a buy in of a known mineral asset with all the cash that's sitting around. Announcements of new propects doesn't add value, digging stuff up and selling it does.


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## 3MT (28 November 2007)

ZFX have announced they are interested in copper and possibily nickel, but prices for these stocks are mostly inflated now after that Jubilee bid, although less than last couple weeks.

The time to make a move on copper stocks is round about now. Does anyone have a 2cent on which copper stocks? I am not ruling out OXR, but I think Hegarty would make it almost impossible for a predator to latch on, unless its a hostile takeover.

I thought about KZL which is probable, but is that too high a premium to pay for a predominantly Zinc miner in this environment. Possibly.


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## profithunter (28 November 2007)

Interesting to note that a non excutive director of Oxiana quit yesterday, effective immediately.  He is also a director of ZFX...I wonder if this could have a something to do with the takeover rumours.  If OXR are mounting a bid then this guy would have a conflict of interest...maybe thats why he left.  Just a thought.


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## vishalt (29 November 2007)

Zinifex is way oversold and has some really good prospects and if its planning to diversify then I think it looks like a pretty damn good buy!

How it will diversify I don't know - the CEO is pretty aggressive and tries to get maximum value for shareholders (as seen by the WMC bid). 

I don't have the capital but I think I'll get Dad to buy some of it, if Oxiana is going to propose a merger then Zinifex will fire up!


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## YELNATS (29 November 2007)

vishalt said:


> Zinifex is way oversold and has some really good prospects and if its planning to diversify then I think it looks like a pretty damn good buy!
> 
> How it will diversify I don't know - the CEO is pretty aggressive and tries to get maximum value for shareholders (as seen by the WMC bid).
> 
> I don't have the capital but I think I'll get Dad to buy some of it, if Oxiana is going to propose a merger then Zinifex will fire up!




I topped up on ZFX yesterday with the price under $14.

A negative report yesterday from Merrill Lynch

QUOTE
Merrill Lynch rates (ZFX.AX 

ZINIFEX29 November,200729/11/2007 08:03 Sydney, Australia.
Value Change % Change 
13.860 +0 +0% 

Company overview
Real-time quote
ZFX.AX , 13.860, +0, +0%) as Sell, High Risk - Analysts have downgraded FY08 earnings forecasts for Zinifex, based on the cost pressures highlighted in the company?s Annual General Meeting. Analysts also expect that zinc demand will disappoint over the next three months. They have reduced their forecast profit by 9% to $746m UNQUOTE

However, analysts don't always get it right, perhaps the price is being "prepared" for a takeover bid.


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## Nyden (29 November 2007)

I'm glad I didn't top up on ZFX, but instead went for BHP. ZFX always seems to fall hardest, and recover softest 

Short term prospects aren't all that great - *unless* an announcement is made about acquiring something, or an ann is made about a takeover/merger.

But, their new CEO doesn't start till Feb does he? I could be wrong, don't quite remember : Would be disappointing if nothing at all happened until Feb/March, they may very well be in a weaker position to offer scrip by then, for any large takeover.


Don't get me wrong though, I'm a believer  And I don't hold *any* worth in what Merrill Lynch, or Citi say about anything at this point in time.


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## justjohn (29 November 2007)

ZFX has had its chance to run today only up 2% should have a lot more in the tank than that.Overall lately it has performed like a busted arse,holding on to plenty but patience is running out


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## DionM (29 November 2007)

Pretty much back where it started the day now ...

I see over on HC someone reported a buy of 56000 @ 13.98.  

ZFX ZFX ZFX ... what are you up to?


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## Nyden (29 November 2007)

DionM said:


> Pretty much back where it started the day now ...
> 
> I see over on HC someone reported a buy of 56000 @ 13.98.
> 
> ZFX ZFX ZFX ... what are you up to?





Nothing. That's the problem 
It really is rough trying to stay positive on this one, when all it does is drop 4%, and struggle to gain 1. It's obviously still in a downtrend, but how low can it drop? I think sentiment has still just taken a beating, you can't go to any news site without reading a doom & gloom article on Zinc.

Let's face it - the only thing keeping the price up as of late was takeover rumors...that seem to have substantiated to absolutely nothing.

If I wasn't so stubborn, I'd sell out of ZFX, & place into something else, but - I just keep thinking it must be undervalued at this point, and is due for a rebound 


Some company needs to takeover ZFX, and save us holders


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## roland (29 November 2007)

Not being a chartist, it does look like it's hit bottom - otherwise it's going to be a pretty horrible fall to around $11.50.

We are at pretty much the level that all the brokers have given it. There are certainly no shorage of sellers. What we need is another take-over rumour, otherwise we will have to be content with an excellent dividend yield.


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## DionM (29 November 2007)

Volume hasn't been especially high either.  

Hard to figure out what is going on.  $14 seems to be holding, though I'd much prefer to see it in the middle, now just under.  

Of all the days, I thought today would've seen it make a bit of a recovery.

I wonder if ZFX and OXR are thinking of the same target (rather than each other)?  Would explain the lacklustre SP for both, and the director resigning from OXR (maybe he thinks ZFX have a better chance?).  So ZFX wanders aimlessly under it's sorted out?


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## roland (29 November 2007)

Obviously you guys have been watching Zinifex as long as I have. It never ceases to amaze me that it can have such a large swing and end up exactly where it opened. ZFX does this a lot - and if that is not manipulation, then I don't know what manipulation is......


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## Nyden (29 November 2007)

roland said:


> Obviously you guys have been watching Zinifex as long as I have. It never ceases to amaze me that it can have such a large swing and end up exactly where it opened. ZFX does this a lot - and if that is not manipulation, then I don't know what manipulation is......




Not manipulation, Zinc is down basically 3.5% - I'm starting to think ZFX is not undervalued, but rather re-valued  If things don't pick up, I'll just sell out next dividend : Providing it doesn't drop another 30%!


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## 3MT (29 November 2007)

Yeah I do agree with Nylex's observation that the stock has been re-valued due to the renewed zinc outlook. I no longer think its undervalued, but fairly priced.

Give the bad news some more time to run it should be closer to the end than the beginning now - Provided China don't decide to impose bigger tarrifs on this metal.

Keep in mind its got around 33% of its capitalisation as cold hard cash. I can see it going down a little further, but not much for that reason. 

I sold out 50% of my holdings a few days ago and looking for an entry point again pretty soon. ideally at $12, but I doubt it would go there.


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## 3MT (29 November 2007)

Did I say Nylex? Sorry I meant Nyden not Nylex. It's what happens when you read too much finance news in one day.


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## Ken (29 November 2007)

I am no expert but dont stocks tend to be hammered down right before a take over bid is made.

Rinker was one.

S8 limited was another

The facts are that if you hold this stock for 5 years your going to get half your money back in dividends.

They are the facts provided the china boom continues and ZFX continues paying its more than healthy dividend.


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## Nyden (29 November 2007)

Ken said:


> I am no expert but dont stocks tend to be hammered down right before a take over bid is made.
> 
> Rinker was one.
> 
> ...




Oh, absolutely. A stock like this is *held* mostly for dividends - you can't have your cake, & eat it too! Can't expect a stock to give out such sizable dividends, & experience the growth that say, BHP has. 

A stock like this is more like a rental property, still - it *is* upsetting to see your property drop in value by 20% :


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## mfp (29 November 2007)

Everyone keeps consoling themselves with the prospect of healthy future dividends. Who'se to say they won't slash their dividends substantially given the poor outlook for zinc?


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## legs (29 November 2007)

mfp said:


> Everyone keeps consoling themselves with the prospect of healthy future dividends. Who'se to say they won't slash their dividends substantially given the poor outlook for zinc?




Because if they still have cash they will have to pay a good div or buy something..one or the other..a buy by them should see a rally if its a good asset...a dividend and it wont be much less than this yrs if any.


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## DionM (29 November 2007)

mfp said:


> Everyone keeps consoling themselves with the prospect of healthy future dividends. Who'se to say they won't slash their dividends substantially given the poor outlook for zinc?




The thought has crossed my mind too; and commsec forecasts back it up somewhat.

But that big pile of cash will be put to use soon, I'm sure.


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## mfp (29 November 2007)

OK legs, that makes sense and makes me feel a little more confident about the future SP. Still, i couldn't believe it couldn't crack it for a gain today. Since it went ex-div it seems to have opened near its high and closed near its low almost each and every day. When will it end?


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## SGB (29 November 2007)

quote mfp"Since it went ex-div it seems to have opened near its high and closed near its low almost each and every day. When will it end?"


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## Ben L (30 November 2007)

What is everybodies thought about the performance of Zinifex in the next 5 years or so given if there is no takeover and they return most of the sale of nyrstar to share holders.


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## joeborgo (30 November 2007)

can anybody tell me what the story is with somebody selling 1 share at a lower price than the last sale and a buyer wanting to buy 1 share at about 3c less than the last sale??? this happens a fair bit with this stock and happened this morning at 10.27am.


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## ozrob (30 November 2007)

Zinifex are off to a good start today, at the moment they are up 4% on very high volume 18,800,000. I just hope they don't end the day back down at the opening price.


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## Warren Buffet II (30 November 2007)

So what is the news with Zinifex today?

It is close to break volume record (20m) and the market just started?

WBII


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## Nyden (30 November 2007)

Warren Buffet II said:


> So what is the news with Zinifex today?
> 
> It is close to break volume record (20m) and the market just started?
> 
> WBII




Reason for that is option exercising I believe, or something of that nature.

ZFX's prices are up on rising Zinc prices, we're just making up for missed gains yesterday, really.


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## profithunter (30 November 2007)

The large Volume is due to options expiry last night.  Because the stock has dropped so much, massive volumes of puts were excerised. Some $20 strikes were excercised...poor suckers


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## mfp (2 December 2007)

So do people think ZFX has turned the corner or was Friday just another blip in a continuing downtrend?


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## Nyden (2 December 2007)

mfp said:


> So do people think ZFX has turned the corner or was Friday just another blip in a continuing downtrend?




Zinc rose again; providing the US doesn't take a fall down the stairs, might just see some smooth sailing for a while here


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## ozrob (4 December 2007)

> 15 November 2007
> Nyrstar Over Allotment Option Not Exercised
> In connection with the initial public offering (the “Offer”) of Nyrstar NV (“Nyrstar”),
> Zinifex announces that the Underwriters have not exercised the over allotment
> ...




I would think this after market announcement will have a positive effect on the share price tomorrow, after all it is 7.79% of a major asset. 
What does every one else think ?


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## joeborgo (4 December 2007)

Maybe not ozrob as the market may have been expecting the cash instead. does anybody know if Zinifex has actually received the cash for the sale of Nyrstar yet or were they waiting to see if the option was taken up? SP did well today and tried to breakout a few times considering Zinc price was down.


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## Nyden (4 December 2007)

Um, that article is dated November 15th.

It's been known since they sold Nystar that they still held a 7% share in it.
Yes, Zinifex have the cash from the sale.

Out of curiosity, does annyone know what corporations like this do with such large sums of money? Does it accumulate interest in special billion-dollar accounts? Heck, even 5% P/A over 4 months would generate some sweet interest with 1.6bln


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## joeborgo (4 December 2007)

hi nyden

what do you think about Zinifexs performance of late? IMO it looks like they have turned the corner and could be set for a recovery of sorts. With the cash they would at least have it invested on the short term money market.


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## bigdog (4 December 2007)

Yesterday's Australian

http://www.theaustralian.news.com.au/story/0,25197,22858101-5005200,00.html

WHAT THE BROKERS SAY: Kevin Andrusiak | December 03, 2007

Zinifex (ZFX)
Merrill Lynch
Sell recommendation
No share price target
Last traded at $14.40

THE one-time market darling Zinifex faces some big headwinds over the next 12 months as analysts predict the zinc price to continue to retreat and the company's own admission that operating costs are likely to rise by 10 per cent this financial year. 

Add to this the higher Aussie dollar/$US exchange rate and there are more than a few market watchers out there saying Zinifex is a definite sell. 

"We expect the demand for zinc over the coming quarter will disappoint," Merrill analysts Mike Harrowell and Stuart Howe recently told clients. 

"Weaker demand and a surge in supply will lead to lower prices." Earnings estimates for the current fiscal year from Merrill has been revised 8.8 per cent downwards to $746.3 million while the net present value (NPV) estimate is now 12 per cent lower at $9.66 a share.


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## Nyden (4 December 2007)

joeborgo said:


> hi nyden
> 
> what do you think about Zinifexs performance of late? IMO it looks like they have turned the corner and could be set for a recovery of sorts. With the cash they would at least have it invested on the short term money market.




I certainly can't say if it's turned a corner - it all depends on what the price of Zinc does at this point.

Their first acquisition will be of importance as well - how much they pay, earnings estimates, whether the market feels they under/overpaid. We'll start to see some real movement (either good, or bad) once acquisitions become realized; basically, once we see which direction they're *actually* headed.


I will say, that both Zinc & Zinifex though have performed reasonably well over the short term though, which is obviously stating the obvious


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## profithunter (4 December 2007)

bigdog said:


> Yesterday's Australian
> 
> http://www.theaustralian.news.com.au/story/0,25197,22858101-5005200,00.html
> 
> ...




I love how these big brokerage firms come out with these comments after the fact, its easy to say Zinifex is a dog after its price has fallen from 18.60 to 14.50 and that the outlook is cloudy after Zinc has dropped 40% this year.  Why werent they saying this at the stocks peak in july or even in october. Whenever the big banks go bearish on a stock its time to buy.  I've been loading up on ZFX because all the news has been negative (contrarian view).  Come on you smart @rse analysts put your balls on the line and make some real calls rather than following the market.


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## roland (4 December 2007)

profithunter said:


> I love how these big brokerage firms come out with these comments after the fact, its easy to say Zinifex is a dog after its price has fallen from 18.60 to 14.50 and that the outlook is cloudy after Zinc has dropped 40% this year.  Why werent they saying this at the stocks peak in july or even in october. Whenever the big banks go bearish on a stock its time to buy.  I've been loading up on ZFX because all the news has been negative (contrarian view).  Come on you smart @rse analysts put your balls on the line and make some real calls rather than following the market.




I'm normally un-enlightened with a lot of these broker comments. As you have mentioned "easy to say after the fact". Any one of us watching Zinifex know all this stuff already - in fact, I would guess the individual resources and watchfulness of the ASF members would give some of these so called expert brokers a run for their money.

Bottom line is, the Zinifex board and Directors know what the issues are and I am confident that they have the expertise to continue adding value to shareholders like ourselves. The demand for Zinc will not go away, but the supply eventually will.

Unless Zinifex kills the dividend yield or does something really stupid, then I'll be around - not quite getting the ZFX tattoo on my forehead yet


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## SGB (4 December 2007)

Alex Wilson of the Dow Jones NewsWires reports;

"Buyers are beginning to signal interest US 15 billion dollar worth of assets that Rio Tinto plans to sell."
OXR, ZFX, PME, NCM have all been tipped as potential buyers of the Northparks Copper and Gold Mine operations, which has the capacity to produce 60,000 metric tons of copper and 50,00 ounces of gold per year and expected to be in production until 2015."

He goes on with some bla bla bla but notes " Zinifex is expected to have a look at Northparks as the miner is cashed up from the spin off of its smeltering business and is targeting copper aquisitions"


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## roland (4 December 2007)

SGB said:


> Alex Wilson of the Dow Jones NewsWires reports;
> 
> "Buyers are beginning to signal interest US 15 billion dollar worth of assets that Rio Tinto plans to sell."
> OXR, ZFX, PME, NCM have all been tipped as potential buyers of the Northparks Copper and Gold Mine operations, which has the capacity to produce 60,000 metric tons of copper and 50,00 ounces of gold per year and expected to be in production until 2015."
> ...




I hope Zinifex doesn't get caught in a bidding war and end up paying too much. Why is RIO selling off this asset?


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## SGB (4 December 2007)

roland said:


> I hope Zinifex doesn't get caught in a bidding war and end up paying too much. Why is RIO selling off this asset?




As reports
"Rio said last week that it expects the asset sales to raise US$15 billion to pay down some of the US$40 billion in debt it took on to fund its takeover of Alcan Inc."


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## 3MT (4 December 2007)

profithunter said:


> I love how these big brokerage firms come out with these comments after the fact, its easy to say Zinifex is a dog after its price has fallen from 18.60 to 14.50 and that the outlook is cloudy after Zinc has dropped 40% this year.  Why werent they saying this at the stocks peak in july or even in october. Whenever the big banks go bearish on a stock its time to buy.  I've been loading up on ZFX because all the news has been negative (contrarian view).  Come on you smart @rse analysts put your balls on the line and make some real calls rather than following the market.




I can't agree with you more on this. But if they were that good at forecasting they wouldn't be doing fulltime work at a broking house.

I've offloaded half my zfx holdings the other week while prices were at these levels and falling. Although it looks to be stabilising (I"m only basing it on the last few days trend), I am hesitant of holding any more zinifex for the short term play. (how market will take to its new acquisition, what China will do with zinc rebates). Medium-Long term its going to be a mid-tier force to reckon with.

Most of the other blokes would be worrying about bidding against ZFX for RIO's assets. They don't have the same cash inheritant.


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## Nyden (5 December 2007)

If the rise of this morning manages to hold; dare I say sentiment may finally have changed on ZFX. We're officially at $15 now  Perhaps it really did fall too far


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## justjohn (5 December 2007)

So far a good week for ZFX up 3% today but could easily turn pear shape but keep the FAITH a L/T :


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## Rafa (5 December 2007)

That base around the 13.90 to 14.00 is looking very very solid... 
This makes sense, cause at these levels, its PE is about 6, and market cap is 7billion, of which about 1.8billion is cash! But its what they do with this cash that will determine whether the levels of $22 will be seen again... but atleast $14 ish is a solid base.

see chart...


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## mneal (5 December 2007)

Breaking through 15.00 now. That's around 40c rise today. The volumes are also up. Does anyone know if any of the takeover rumours have arisen again today?

Either way, my opinion is that price is still low at the moment because it looks to be based on the future earnings declining. However that valuation doesn't count any of the future growth potential - which they still have to spend 2.2billion on acquistions and also have a decent portfolio of new projects.

I guess we'll need to be patient though for some significant gains, unless a REAL takeover is presented.


----------



## profithunter (5 December 2007)

The rise today looks like its due to more takeover rumours...talk that xstrata is preparing a $20 bid...but who knows.


----------



## prawn_86 (5 December 2007)

Profithunter, can you please confirm this rumour?

If it is from another forum it is useless ramping, if not please provide a link or more data rather than just a random price target


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## profithunter (5 December 2007)

I dont ramp stocks...as you pointed out its useless. here is my source

 0147 GMT [Dow Jones] Xstrata (XTA.LN) poised to launch A$20/share cash bid for Zinifex
(ZFX.AU), says senior trader with good track record on M&A. Expects bid within 6
months, maybe within weeks. "I think their strategy is to get in here quickly and
blitz some of the major commodities they are interested in. They've picked up nickel
and coal and they want to pick up zinc and I think they want to do it before the Chinese
move on anything preemptively over here. Despite what you are hearing, zinc is up there
(in terms of priorities for Xstrata)." Says Xstrata wanted to wrap up A$3 billion
Jubilee Mines bid before moving on Zinifex, but that Jubilee is now a "done
deal." Xstrata today launched A$1 billion bid for Resource Pacific (RSP.AU). Xstrata
says it has no comment on Zinifex speculation. Zinifex also declines comment. Last month,
Zinifex hit A$16.48 high on talk of looming bid from Oxiana (OXR.AU) or Xstrata. ZFX last
up 2.7% at A$15.01, hits 2-week high of A$15.18 despite 3.0% fall in LME zinc. (DWR)


----------



## bigdog (5 December 2007)

MARCUS TODAY reported 60  minutes ago!

In the news 

    * Xstrata have counterbid for Resource Pacific (RSP) on top of Jubilee Mines fuelling thoughts that Xstrata will bid for everything in Australia including Zinifex. Talk of a $20 bid. Now $15. Suggestions that Xstrata are trying to Ã¢â‚¬Å“get setÃ¢â‚¬  before the Chinese decide to launch on Australian resource stocks and shut everyone else out. No comment from ZFX.


----------



## Nyden (5 December 2007)

bigdog said:


> MARCUS TODAY reported 60  minutes ago!
> 
> In the news
> 
> * Xstrata have counterbid for Resource Pacific (RSP) on top of Jubilee Mines fuelling thoughts that Xstrata will bid for everything in Australia including Zinifex. Talk of a $20 bid. Now $15. Suggestions that Xstrata are trying to Ã¢â‚¬Å“get setÃ¢â‚¬  before the Chinese decide to launch on Australian resource stocks and shut everyone else out. No comment from ZFX.




I'm tired of speculation though, I'm too impatient  I wish someone would just launch a darn bid for Zinifex already. I'd be quite happy with a bid of that range.

Just a thought - wouldn't it be wise to make a bid for ZFX before they start making acquisitions? That way the bidder would have more choice.

At the same time though, aren't all these rumors hindering any bidders? They would ideally want to buy in whilst it's low, as opposed to letting rumors slowly inch its way up to the price they were going to offer  I'm not convinced to be honest.


----------



## 3MT (5 December 2007)

yeah fellas, stop indirectly ramping up ZFX prices, you scaring Xtrata away. 

Let's lie low, keep ZFX prices at these levels and within a few months/weeks we will be handsomely rewarded.


----------



## uhu (6 December 2007)

Nyden said:


> I'm tired of speculation though, I'm too impatient  I wish someone would just launch a darn bid for Zinifex already. I'd be quite happy with a bid of that range.
> 
> Just a thought - wouldn't it be wise to make a bid for ZFX before they start making acquisitions? That way the bidder would have more choice.
> 
> At the same time though, aren't all these rumors hindering any bidders? They would ideally want to buy in whilst it's low, as opposed to letting rumors slowly inch its way up to the price they were going to offer  I'm not convinced to be honest.





Yes, rumors and rumors but not facts...And, an other thing: in my opinion if a company f.e Xsrtata wants to acquire Zinifex, the mentioned 20 aud price is too low.
First, if Zinifex will buy new mines or acquire an other company at next year, its share price will lift to between 17-19 (if global finance climate will be OK), so, where is the premium?
Second, Xtrata' other bids offer more premium than 25%, see the coal miner. (I read it's about 85% premium).

Well, I will be glad if my stock can lift now, but probably I would be a bit disappointed if I "must" sell my shares...


----------



## silence (6 December 2007)

Heh, I don't care what happens as long as I get my ~$18 back that I paid for them. Anyhow it looks like a decent time to load up with the cheapish price + good yield (assuming that lasts).


----------



## ozrob (6 December 2007)

silence said:


> Heh, I don't care what happens as long as I get my ~$18 back that I paid for them. Anyhow it looks like a decent time to load up with the cheapish price + good yield (assuming that lasts).




After the hammering they have received in the last few weeks I think most people holding ZFX would be over the moon to see anything near $18


----------



## Stan 101 (6 December 2007)

3MT said:


> yeah fellas, stop indirectly ramping up ZFX prices, you scaring Xtrata away.
> 
> Let's lie low, keep ZFX prices at these levels and within a few months/weeks we will be handsomely rewarded.




Good point. It looks like the CEOs of Xtrata haven't logged into the forum for over a week... Imagine the shock when they read the latest posts..What were they thinking?


----------



## ozrob (6 December 2007)

It looks like the rumour mill has gone in to overdrive again, at the moment ZFX is    up about 6% on a possible take over offer.
Edit: Just hit 7%


----------



## DionM (6 December 2007)

Man, the way ZFX wobbles around you'd think it was some cheap 2-bit speccie stock!  Honestly, it's like a rollercoaster ride sometimes!  

With MAP also doing a big wobble now and then like ZFX, my portfolio jiggles all over the place ... slowly getting used to it


----------



## YELNATS (6 December 2007)

uhu said:


> Yes, rumors and rumors but not facts...And, an other thing: in my opinion if a company f.e Xsrtata wants to acquire Zinifex, the mentioned 20 aud price is too low.
> First, if Zinifex will buy new mines or acquire an other company at next year, its share price will lift to between 17-19 (if global finance climate will be OK), so, where is the premium?
> Second, Xtrata' other bids offer more premium than 25%, see the coal miner. (I read it's about 85% premium).
> 
> Well, I will be glad if my stock can lift now, but probably I would be a bit disappointed if I "must" sell my shares...




I concur, a $20 offer would be too low. Don't worry too much about the sp trend in the last couple of months, look at ZFX's potential. Refer to my previous post no. 1908,

Quote
I would think that an offer for ZFX would have to be $25 + to be acceptable to ZFX shareholders bearing in mind they already nearly hit $22 last July and also the long term value of the business. I for one would not be happy with only a $20 offer.
Unquote


----------



## legs (6 December 2007)

Aussie stocks higher; Zinifex up on takeover talk

Thursday December 6, 2007, 12:21 pm


(Adds Zinifex, updates indexes)

SYDNEY, Dec 6 (Reuters) - Australian shares rose 1.2 percent to a three-week high on Thursday, with U.S.-exposed firms such as Westfield Group (ASX: WDC.ax) leading gains after upbeat economic data eased fears of a recession in the world's biggest economy.

The benchmark S&P/ASX 200 index .AXJO rose 79.2 points to 6,587.3 by 0107 GMT, its highest level since Nov. 15, after falling 0.35 percent in the previous session.

New Zealand's benchmark NZX-50 index .NZ50 fell 0.4 percent, or 15.94 points, to 4,018.61. The top stock, Telecom Corp of New Zealand Ltd (NZX: TEL.nz) , was down 0.2 percent at NZ$4.32.

STOCKS ON THE MOVE

* Zinc miner Zinifex Ltd (ASX: ZFX.ax) jumped 5.5 percent to A$15.93, with dealers citing rumours that Swiss mining group Xstrata XTA.L may make A$20.00 per share offer for Zinifex, valuing the firm at A$9.7 billion ($8.4 billion).

There has also been market speculation in recent weeks that fellow miner Oxiana Resources Ltd (ASX: OXR.ax) might launch a bid of four Oxiana shares for every one Zinifex share.


----------



## vishalt (6 December 2007)

Where the hell do these papers source these rumours from? What a load of absolute ****!

Zinifex is EXPENSIVE, it has LOW MINE LIFE, its relying on its tiny explorer acquisitions to hitch on a major find because in 4 years Zinifex will be just fex without the zinc. 

Xstrata's interest is clearly in small coal and nickel assets and if you look at the acquisitions it makes they're generally single digit -billion- or even cheaper.

It's just gone for Jubilee and Pacfic, I'd be blown away if it actually went for Zinifex.


----------



## legs (6 December 2007)

vishalt said:


> Where the hell do these papers source these rumours from? What a load of absolute ****!
> 
> Zinifex is EXPENSIVE, it has LOW MINE LIFE, its relying on its tiny explorer acquisitions to hitch on a major find because in 4 years Zinifex will be just fex without the zinc.
> 
> ...




I am sure they would ALL apologise to the expert you are...obvioulsy you know the real story and you should be printing articles for them.


----------



## vishalt (6 December 2007)

legs said:


> I am sure they would ALL apologise to the expert you are...obvioulsy you know the real story and you should be printing articles for them.



There's a difference between expertise and a bit of common sense. If you bothered waking up and paying attention yesterday Xstrata launched a bid for a coal miner that has a reasonable operation which has a reasonable mine life, the latter quality being one Zinifex does not possess

oh yeah sure, Xstrata might do Zinifex today, and then oh, how about Oxiana tomorrow, oh and how about some Newcrest early Saturday morning? I've never seen a company that bids for something everyday of the week!

I don't know about you but it blows any common sense to buy something which won't be able to pay for itself - especially as Zinc prices are plummeting and with a lot of commodity traders/fund managers and many happy chappies here at ASF are buying into dribble analysts say about Zinc prices falling through the floor.

And FYI I'm actually a journalist and if the publication I work for had an equities column I'd happily write real facts for it, I'd dig into Xstrata and Zinifex to see if the companies have actually talked to each other or wether one has an intent. Until that's proven what's the difference between a newspaper story and a fiction novel? From my perspective it just seems like a lot of finance newspapers don't know the power the have to manipulate market movements significantly.


----------



## Nyden (6 December 2007)

vishalt said:


> Where the hell do these papers source these rumours from? What a load of absolute ****!
> 
> Zinifex is EXPENSIVE, it has LOW MINE LIFE, its relying on its tiny explorer acquisitions to hitch on a major find because in 4 years Zinifex will be just fex without the zinc.
> 
> ...





They're not just relying on tiny explorer acquisitions, and that's a rather silly logic - are you telling me, that every mining company has mines ready for the next 50 years?

Come the end of the year I believe they're going to have about 2.2bln to spend on acquisitions - both in production and close-to, or even to further exploration.

Can I ask, why the emotional response? Were you hoping for a drop over the past few days, for an entry point or did you have shorts taken out?

Clearly most people disagree with you - these rumors probably are 'random' in a sense, but they're clearly indicative of the fact that many analysts see Zinifex as a t/o target, and no offence - but I, & I'm sure a lot of other people value the opinions of experts in takeovers over an emotional opinion of yours?

If you look at ZFX's P/E ratio in comparison with other companies, you will see that they are not expensive. They're cashed up, own nearly 8% in Nystar, and they will soon own mines that may have very long shelf-lives that are outside of Zinc!


I most certainly do value negative opinions - it helps to see the other side of the coin, but I just don't understand the emotional reactions on ZFX I've seen from yourself, & on other forums. Are you happy to see it fall? Obviously if you had shorts, sorry if that was the case mate. 


I guess a lot of Short-traders would be feeling the pinch lately.


& With regards to the single-digit billion dollar acquisitions; if these are value purchases which would greatly help a company (as Xtrata seem to believe), then ZFX can afford to buy 2


----------



## legs (6 December 2007)

vishalt said:


> There's a difference between expertise and a bit of common sense. If you bothered waking up and paying attention yesterday Xstrata launched a bid for a coal miner that has a reasonable operation which has a reasonable mine life, the latter quality being one Zinifex does not possess
> 
> oh yeah sure, Xstrata might do Zinifex today, and then oh, how about Oxiana tomorrow, oh and how about some Newcrest early Saturday morning? I've never seen a company that bids for something everyday of the week!
> 
> ...





Like I said they owe you an apology as THEY tried to fool you (had me going too, actually i still believe some of it) and you should be writing for Reuters as you are obviously on the ball, instead of a publication that has no place to comment on the sharemarket.


----------



## vishalt (6 December 2007)

Nyden said:


> They're not just relying on tiny explorer acquisitions, and that's a rather silly logic - are you telling me, that every mining company has mines ready for the next 50 years?
> 
> Come the end of the year I believe they're going to have about 2.2bln to spend on acquisitions - both in production and close-to, or even to further exploration.
> 
> ...



The internet is a bit of a barrier so I'll just clarify I wasn't being emotional. 

And I don't play in small/mid-cap stocks anymore (I bailed out of Zinifex once upon a time when it was $20.) 

Of-course you're right, Zinifex does have a nicely loaded warchest, but last I heard Roseberry had around 4 years left and Century around 8 - unless it realizes mine life past 2020 but it has not done so yet, it just seems a big risk for X to take it unless its realised first don't you think?

Legs: Yeah ta, then I can use my massive powers to manipulate market movements by buying the shares the day before and writing rumors about them the next, set the prophecy up yeah? Also maybe you should argue my points instead of lashing out at me like I'm some market guru, that is not the case, its just my perspective and opinion, I don't claim to be an expert by any means but I'll bolt out whatever is on my mind.


----------



## Nyden (6 December 2007)

vishalt said:


> The internet is a bit of a barrier so I'll just clarify I wasn't being emotional.
> 
> And I don't play in small/mid-cap stocks anymore (I bailed out of Zinifex once upon a time when it was $20.)
> 
> ...




Well, most acquisitions involve risks - risks of overpaying, and well there are other risks involved as well.

I believe the only real thing making ZFX safely attractive to predators *is* that war chest, & the possibilities that come with it. It tends to negate some of the risks, and makes the stock worth-while; & you can't completely discount exploration possibilities, holdings in other companies, and profits from current production.

$20 doesn't seem to be too high a price to pay for all of this in my opinion - If anyone were to make an offer, I wouldn't expect anything higher than that though.


----------



## vishalt (6 December 2007)

Fair enough. 

I admit I'd buy a lot of it if it expands into copper or merges with Oxiana - with that ex WMC chief its got a pretty talented management.


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## Ken (6 December 2007)

this has to be the best stock on the asx over the past few months to have made money in upward and doward movements.

I have a theory, which has worked twice for me so far.

My theory has been, buy at $14.00 or under on margin loan, because the dividend covers the interest payed, and wait for takeover speculation, or even take over offer.

It has worked thus far. 

just a theory....   possibly fortunate the zinc price has rebounded and the market has gone up.

either way my theory is that at some point in time ZFX will aquire or be aquired.


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## legs (7 December 2007)

vishalt said:


> The internet is a bit of a barrier so I'll just clarify I wasn't being emotional.
> 
> And I don't play in small/mid-cap stocks anymore (I bailed out of Zinifex once upon a time when it was $20.)
> 
> ...




I wasn't lashing out at you... simply making a point that if you think that 4,5 or 6 news services could all have the takeover rumour wrong, or at least in your words way of the track and ridiculous,  then you must have the amazing ability to read the market better and YOU should be a financial reporter.  I never meant it to be mean or nasty, a little sarcastic maybe, but all in fun.


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## uhu (11 December 2007)

There are the new speculation about the merger (or acquisition) between Anglo American and the swiss Xstrata. 
Well, if Xstrata needs money to buy Anglo or Anglo will buy Xstrata...how can Xstrata acq. Zinifex?

Probably that's why ZFX dropped last day? I was suprised because zinc and lead  were up at Friday, so I waited a 1-2% "lift" for ZFX share prices too...


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## 3MT (11 December 2007)

I don't think ZFX will track zinc and lead prices that much from here. It will track merger/acquisition sentiment much more.

I hold ZFX and would of course smile if xtrata and co. come this way, but I really doubt ZFX will be acquired. Keep in mind somebody will have to pay a super premium for it (substantially more than $20 if Michelmore has anything to say about it). Why would you bother at that price? It's only got limited zinc and lead assets and cash, which for the big boys is petty cash equivalent.

I am holding the stock because of my belief that this will be a champion mid-tier miner in the years to come, with its management and strong balance sheet and hope that they will make a clever and strategic acquisition/merger shortly, which perhaps is what many in the the market is also expecting.

I would expect ZFX to have an inverse relationship with most mining stock movements, because the higher the other SP goes up the more expensive it would be for ZFX to acquire them.


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## ROE (11 December 2007)

Take over party is over boys 
Easy cash dry up .. even the Chinese walk away from nufarm
buy on fundamentals not some street talk that may or may not eventuate.


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## Ashsaege (14 December 2007)

Im not sure what to expect for ZFX on the horizon. It is a very volatile stock and the market expects some Corporate action - possible takeovers.
We need some good news!


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## adobee (14 December 2007)

Well I am back on the ZFX band wagon today at $14 !

I think this company is good buying and I am liking the chances of an XSTRATA take over .. Xstrata is getting a bit worried by that brazilian mob wanting to take them and when they are worried they get aggressive...  I think ZFX will be the logical buy .. but even with no takeover $14 is value in my book..


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## tronic72 (14 December 2007)

I'm only new to charting but does ZFX currently look like an inverse Head & Shoulders? Those in the know will know what that signals.

Interested to know what some of the technical gurus think.


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## adobee (14 December 2007)

tronic72 said:


> I'm only new to charting but does ZFX currently look like an inverse Head & Shoulders? Those in the know will know what that signals.
> 
> Interested to know what some of the technical gurus think.





as some one who does no charting what so ever what does this head and shoulders signal ??? Dandruff ??


----------



## Kowabunga (14 December 2007)

I'm new aswell - looking at the charts, the daily one looks like its forming an inverse head & shoulders...its not quite there yet...sp needs to get up to the neck line...
If you look at the weekly chart - it looks like a head and shoulders to me..
can someone tell me from a tech analysis perspective - what does it mean when ur weekly chart indicates a reversal in the opposite direction to the daily chart?? do you just sit back and say neither is reliable? look for other supporting evidence for each?


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## tronic72 (14 December 2007)

adobee said:


> as some one who does no charting what so ever what does this head and shoulders signal ??? Dandruff ??




"Dandruff ??"

Thanks for my evening chuckle. It "often" means that it's about to turn around. (or so I'm lead to believe). I've not been charting long so I'm a newbie when it comes to such things.


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## ozrob (15 December 2007)

> The hot stocks of 2008
> IT is the question economists and investors alike have been peddling for some years now.
> 
> When will this unprecedented bull market come crashing to a prolonged halt?
> ...



link to story

I found this article today, what does every one think.
I bought some a few weeks ago at $14.60 and have been holding them as they rollercoaster up and down.


----------



## adobee (15 December 2007)

ozrob said:


> link to story
> 
> I found this article today, what does every one think.
> I bought some a few weeks ago at $14.60 and have been holding them as they rollercoaster up and down.




Didnt credit suisse just sell everything they have in ZFX ?? They bought in not long ago at around $15 something I think.. 
Once one takeover offer comes to fruition I think we will see a couple on the table pretty quick.. ZFX is the logical buy for alot of companies...


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## ozrob (17 December 2007)

> ZINIFEX has made a $697.44 million all-cash bid for Allegiance Mining that would be increased upon certain conditions.
> 
> Zinifex's base offer is 90 cents per Allegiance share.
> 
> ...




Link to story

Well I personally was not expecting any action from zinifex till early next year.
Looks like they are trying to strengthen their position from possible takeover offers.


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## adobee (17 December 2007)

Is zinifex in a trading halt now or is just nothing trading ?? I am a bit confused I cant see any trading halt announcment but the bid is $14 and the offer is $12 ... ??


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## DionM (17 December 2007)

Interesting.  A little left of field but makes sense I guess for AGM to be brought into the ZFX family.

I own AGM as well as ZFX so it will be interesting to see how it pans out.


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## DionM (17 December 2007)

adobee said:


> Is zinifex in a trading halt now or is just nothing trading ?? I am a bit confused I cant see any trading halt announcment but the bid is $14 and the offer is $12 ... ??




If it looks like that then I'd hazard a guess it's in a trading halt.

AGM is also looking the same, and given the takeover offer on the table, I guess both are in a halt.


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## adobee (17 December 2007)

Market doesnt look to be reacting to positively to the announcment.. I am hoping this may bring any potential playes looking at zinifex out of the woodwork to make a move..


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## overule (17 December 2007)

It will be a while before markets take this announcement as positive. Expect downwards SP for a while.


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## justjohn (17 December 2007)

adobee said:


> Market doesnt look to be reacting to positively to the announcment.. I am hoping this may bring any potential playes looking at zinifex out of the woodwork to make a move..




Dont worry the market isn't acting positively on anything today:fan so dont get too despaired there's always tomorrow


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## michael_selway (17 December 2007)

justjohn said:


> Dont worry the market isn't acting positively on anything today:fan so dont get too despaired there's always tomorrow




Hm not bad

*AGM - Earnings and Dividends Forecast (cents per share) 
2006 2007 2008 2009 
EPS -0.2 -0.4 7.3 9.4 
DPS 0.0 0.0 0.6 2.1 *

thx

MS


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## Nyden (17 December 2007)

Ugh, this is messy. AGM should just take the deal, no miner - little alone a spec is *guaranteed* success in this market environment, I don't care if they're months, days or even hours from production. 

Why is it that once a stock is pursued, all negative sentiment disappears? ZFX is guilty of that as well (rumors, at least!). Just because a *company* wants to buy in, as opposed to an individual - all of a sudden all the problems & fears of yesterday are gone...I wouldn't be surprised though if a lot of people took the offer even if management said not to - many will be looking to lock in profits in these uncertain times. The company isn't big enough to have many true believers.


My portfolio is just a big pile of red, amazing what just one week can do


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## shinobi346 (17 December 2007)

Probably because its gives the target confidence that what they have is a good thing, so all the fears are suddenly gone from them. Plus it helps them to lift the SP. 



At this price or anything close to it, it still leaves ZFX plenty left behind in their war chest for further acquisitions. I look forward to the future with this stock.


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## uhu (17 December 2007)

Yes, i agree with you.

If I would be a speculant, i would be very very angry and sad...ZFX have been sinking since August, more than the other miners. And, there is no reason to hope for a quick rebound because the commodity prices are lower and lower.

But....

Well, maybe these facts are good for us, good for Zinifex! Let's think! Zinifex need new mines, we now it. If there is no subprime crisis and miner's share pricers would be high, Zinifex won't able to acquire so large companies....

So, for ex. if OXR will be 3 aud again, there will be a good buying opportunity situation...

ZFX
OXR:


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## YELNATS (17 December 2007)

shinobi346 said:


> At this price or anything close to it, it still leaves ZFX plenty left behind in their war chest for further acquisitions. I look forward to the future with this stock.




Based on AGM's 775 million ordinary shares, the offer is worth $697m at 90cents or $775m at $1. Quite a sizeable purchase.

What percentage of ZFX's warchest does this represent? ie. how many $'s would they have left over for other acquisiitions? 

Nonethless, looks like a good fit for ZFX's nickel aspirations, particularly as Avebury is apparently only 30km down the road from ZFX's existing Rosebery operations.


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## coolcricket (17 December 2007)

YELNATS said:


> Based on AGM's 775 million ordinary shares, the offer is worth $697m at 90cents or $775m at $1. Quite a sizeable purchase.
> 
> What percentage of ZFX's warchest does this represent? ie. how many $'s would they have left over for other acquisiitions?
> 
> Nonethless, looks like a good fit for ZFX's nickel aspirations, particularly as Avebury is apparently only 30km down the road from ZFX's existing Rosebery operations.




CNBC, and the like keep reporting between $2-2.5 billion in the warchest. So maybe only room for 1 more, not enough for a company like Oxiana, I wouldn't have thought.


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## Nick Radge (17 December 2007)

Zinc has had one of the largest Head & Shoulders patterns I've seen under formation since April. The target is 1600. This ZFX move should not be a surprise. Here is what was said back in early November. 







*BOTTOM LINE
7/11:*
EW Trend: Corrective
Price Trend: Down
Trend Strength: Strong
Broker Consensus: Intermediate BUY

*TECHNICAL DISCUSSION*
*
7/11:
VIDEO ANALYSIS (2 mins 28 secs)
LAYMANS:* Todays chart is a close up view of the daily situation. It looks dire - although we are approaching a support zone right here so there is room for a bounce. The last time we looked at ZFX (3/10/07) we were concerned about the the bearish plight of Zinc and the similar price patterns forming here. With Zinc continuing to break down we must continue to think that all is not well with ZFX and that this area of support, if broken, will open the gate to further declines - possibly as far as $10.00. This scenario is best viewed on the weekly chart (refer video) so some sense of proportion can be seen. We have an obvious conflict with the Broker consensus, however, we have been spot on with Zinc and its impending weakness for over 6-months now. Until that picture changes or until ZFX changes its business model, then the risk remains to the downside.
*TECHNICAL:* The headline chart is the Head & Shoulders pattern on the weeklies. We discussed this in the last review just over a month ago and I have shown it again in the video. This daily chart shows what appears to be impulsive price action off the larger degree wave-B highs. Those highs were exactly the 61.8% retracement of the July - August decline. Its normal for a wave-C to resolve itself in a 5-wave pattern. This recent decline of the last week or so is exhibiting clear wave-iii traits; gaps and wide ranges. We are coming into a support zone and prices are oversold. Expect a wave-iii completion near here, a bounce back into wave-iv before another attempt at new lows, quite possibly through those made in August. The weekly indicators are still clearly trending down. 

*TRADING STRATEGY
7/11:*
I cannot see any opportunity at this stage. Opening positions into such significant support would not be beneficial so I advise we wait for the wave-iv bounce, assess its symmetry and if a low risk entry arises we look at a position. If you're looking at longer term long positions then I do think better prices will be seen. I do stress that there is scope for a bounce and not to be sucked into that bounce as confirmation of resumption of an uptrend. If would take a move back above $19.00 to start getting bullish again in my view.


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## uhu (17 December 2007)

Oh I didn't check the news about Zinifex at the morning. When was the announcement? Before or after the market closing?

And...have you got informations about why ZFX dropped so much again?


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## coolcricket (18 December 2007)

uhu said:


> Oh I didn't check the news about Zinifex at the morning. When was the announcement? Before or after the market closing?
> 
> And...have you got informations about why ZFX dropped so much again?




ZFX made a cash bid for "AGM", offering $0.90 per share, total offer of around 700 million I believe. Not quite sure of the true effect of this bid on Zinifex as the market had an awful day, so it seemed Zinifex was bound to go down regardless of the takeover news.

The announcement was released shortly before the open, ZFX was in a trading halt for the first hour or so, and then the floodgates opened.


----------



## uhu (18 December 2007)

coolcricket said:


> ZFX made a cash bid for "AGM", offering $0.90 per share, total offer of around 700 million I believe. Not quite sure of the true effect of this bid on Zinifex as the market had an awful day, so it seemed Zinifex was bound to go down regardless of the takeover news.
> 
> The announcement was released shortly before the open, ZFX was in a trading halt for the first hour or so, and then the floodgates opened.




Thanks....I am just reading the news. Well, I am suprised.
1. ZFX earlier said acquisitions will be febr, 2008. So, why now?
2. ZFX earier said the mean target is copper...so, why they start acquisition with nickel?

And...I think this news means the end of Zinifex-Oxiana story. ZFX can't buy 1 or 2 small-cap miner AND Oxiana.


----------



## rederob (18 December 2007)

If I were ZFX's strategist, this would be a once only offer to AGM.
Over coming weeks nickel prices are likely to go into the low $20ks and drag down all nickel oriented equities.
So AGM holders might realise that selling into a safe price while peers are crumbling is a good idea after all.
AGM directors are right in calling ZFX's move "opportunistic".  This is exactly when cashed up producers need to strike: As the market is tumbling, and *not *when the market is humming.
Anyone reading ZFX's recent releases will have seen quite clearly that the company wanted to get into a base metal "niche", and it named nickel as the metal it wanted in its stable.
Radge's charts might get the near term price action right, but in the years ahead ZFX will have strategically acquired - without debt - a resource base that maintains a strong earnings pipeline over the next 10 years, minimum.

If I were Hegarty, I would be looking at how to acquire MRE, although Glencore's holding would be problematic.


----------



## Nyden (18 December 2007)

$12? Show me what your charts say Technical-traders, surely this *must* be some sort of bottom? Another couple of days like this, I fear pre-10s 

They're not an explorer people! Producer here!  Gawd this is just painful.

Edit: $11 now  What the heck is happening? Why is it falling so much harder than other stocks? Zinc hasn't fallen 20% this week, ugh. 

That's it, I'm taking a stockmarket vacation!


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## roland (18 December 2007)

Nyden said:


> $12? Show me what your charts say Technical-traders, surely this *must* be some sort of bottom? Another couple of days like this, I fear pre-10s
> 
> They're not an explorer people! Producer here!  Gawd this is just painful.




what the @#$#, I'm taking losses on other stuff Nyden just get ZFX at this price -  the market is certainly screwed up!


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## adobee (18 December 2007)

Zinifex is in the 11s now... I cant believe I bought this on Friday ... what a killer.. whats the dividend going to be up to at $11 ???  11% ???


----------



## Nyden (18 December 2007)

Oh, there's no way I'm buying *anything* more in this market, this is certainly an absolute disgrace though, there's no real justification for $11? I guess it could be a whole bunch of people getting stopped out, or margin calls?

I was just thinking that Adobee, their dividend is going to be over 10% at this price, ridiculous, absolutely ridiculous.


Pfft, don't complain about buying in on Friday, my entry point was nearly 17!


----------



## Nick Radge (18 December 2007)

> there's no real justification for $11?




Mark Douglas calls it "the reality gap". 

I think the technicians have it...

*



			...this area of support, if broken, will open the gate to further declines - possibly as far as $10.00...
		
Click to expand...


*

_This post may contain advice that has been prepared by Reef Capital Coaching ABN 24 092 309 978 (“RCC”) and is general advice and does not take account of your objectives, financial situation or needs. Before acting on this general advice you should therefore consider the appropriateness of the advice having regard to your situation. We recommend you obtain financial, legal and taxation advice before making any financial investment decision._


----------



## Nyden (18 December 2007)

Nick Radge said:


> Mark Douglas calls it "the reality gap".
> 
> I think the technicians have it...
> 
> ...




Well, at least if it follows that - I can cling to the fact that it won't fall too much lower!


----------



## chops_a_must (18 December 2007)

Nick Radge said:


> I think the technicians have it...




I have an ABC corrective level around $11, which is what I'm targeting here. It will be very interesting to see what happens, if and when it gets there. Could get nasty, very quickly.


----------



## Nick Radge (18 December 2007)

$11.05 is a measured target price off the daily charts. Unless we get some 'blow off' low between now and then or some turn in volume, then I'd say $11.05 is probable at this stage.



_This post may contain advice that has been prepared by Reef Capital Coaching ABN 24 092 309 978 (“RCC”) and is general advice and does not take account of your objectives, financial situation or needs. Before acting on this general advice you should therefore consider the appropriateness of the advice having regard to your situation. We recommend you obtain financial, legal and taxation advice before making any financial investment decision._


----------



## Nyden (18 December 2007)

chops_a_must said:


> I have an ABC corrective level around $11, which is what I'm targeting here. It will be very interesting to see what happens, if and when it gets there. Could get nasty, very quickly.





Define nasty, chops? You believe it will fall even moreso lower than $11?
It's juuust holding above 12 at the moment, for sentiments sake I hope it closes at that as well.


----------



## chops_a_must (18 December 2007)

Nyden said:


> Define nasty, chops? You believe it will fall even moreso lower than $11?
> It's juuust holding above 12 at the moment, for sentiments sake I hope it closes at that as well.




If it doesn't come back from there, I think you could assume it's going to head into quite a long down trend, if it isn't already there...


----------



## DionM (18 December 2007)

Doing my best crow impersonation. 

Faaaaaaaaaaark.

Not good, not good at all.  

It has fallen very fast and very badly, for a big producer.  ZFX was one of my bigger holdings


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## Nyden (18 December 2007)

DionM said:


> Doing my best crow impersonation.
> 
> Faaaaaaaaaaark.
> 
> ...





Things are looking slightly better though Dion! Gosh though, if you bought in at the 9% drop...you'd be sitting on a 5% profit already. Day traders must be loving all of this...

If the dow rallies tonight, ZFX may break $13 tomorrow 
T/A traders, are you guys happy yet? Or is there yet another wave of $2 that has to be hit before it can make a recovery back to 5? :

I joke because I'm trying to stay positive, using humor as a means of easing my pain


----------



## buggalug (18 December 2007)

Nyden said:


> Things are looking slightly better though Dion! Gosh though, if you bought in at the 9% drop...you'd be sitting on a 5% profit already. Day traders must be loving all of this...
> 
> If the dow rallies tonight, ZFX may break $13 tomorrow
> T/A traders, are you guys happy yet? Or is there yet another wave of $2 that has to be hit before it can make a recovery back to 5? :
> ...




I'm new to EW, so I wouldn't rely too much on it, so hopefully Nick will clear it up. This is how i've been counting it, I have the same target as Nick mentioned above, this is where both red C equals red A and green C equals green A.

I'm looking for it to fill the gap back to $13, which is also the typical 38.2% retracement for wave 4 and then down again to complete wave 5.


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## adobee (18 December 2007)

I have bought up as much zinifex as I could at $12.00 
I think zfx is good no matter what the charts say 10% dividend 7.5% franked.. and experience company that knows how to make money.. and I think still a potential take over in the winds..


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## roland (18 December 2007)

Looks like Zinifex are not standing around doing nothing ... Announcement that ZFX has become a substantial holder of AGM


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## Nick Radge (18 December 2007)

> Unless we get some 'blow off' low between now and then or some turn in volume...




May be seeing that blow off low...


_This post may contain advice that has been prepared by Reef Capital Coaching ABN 24 092 309 978 (“RCC”) and is general advice and does not take account of your objectives, financial situation or needs. Before acting on this general advice you should therefore consider the appropriateness of the advice having regard to your situation. We recommend you obtain financial, legal and taxation advice before making any financial investment decision._


----------



## Nyden (18 December 2007)

roland said:


> Looks like Zinifex are not standing around doing nothing ... Announcement that ZFX has become a substantial holder of AGM




No, as far as I can see they don't hold a single share? Unless I'm reading it wrong...

Perhaps they're required to show their current holdings, or perhaps I'm reading it wrong :

Sigh, why can't this dog just join the party & recover with my other 2 resource stocks  I'm cursed to always hold one blooming dog, first PDN, now this!


----------



## nioka (18 December 2007)

roland said:


> Looks like Zinifex are not standing around doing nothing ... Announcement that ZFX has become a substantial holder of AGM



 This is the first time I have seen a "substantial shareholder" notice which says the have  NIL  shares. What the!!!!!!!!!!. Are they playing a game?


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## roland (18 December 2007)

nioka said:


> This is the first time I have seen a "substantial shareholder" notice which says the have  NIL  shares. What the!!!!!!!!!!. Are they playing a game?




It was a bit like the bidder's statement for AGM, had the dates listed as "Insert Date Here" - wierd stuff


----------



## roland (18 December 2007)

Actually it looks like they are preparing all the paperwork and making this public without completing the forms....


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## nioka (18 December 2007)

roland said:


> Actually it looks like they are preparing all the paperwork and making this public without completing the forms....




Maybe they are preparing the paperwork in advance and someone lodged them by mistake before the event. They will have to try a lot harder to get my AGM shares.


----------



## Nyden (18 December 2007)

nioka said:


> Maybe they are preparing the paperwork in advance and someone lodged them by mistake before the event. They will have to try a lot harder to get my AGM shares.




Stop being so selfish Nioka, & hand them over!  Can't you see that we poor ZFX holders need a break? We've got nothing! Bad news on every front, a takeover target that isn't playing nicely, help us out here 

In seriousness though (forgive my awful humor; I'm trying to stay positive today, you see) - I believe someone may just have faxed over the wrong forms (perhaps a work experience girl), it would make sense that ZFX would become a substantial holder - at least by buying some shares on market.

I'm hoping to see a juicy number, like a 15, or 25%


----------



## nioka (18 December 2007)

Nyden said:


> Stop being so selfish Nioka, & hand them over!  Can't you see that we poor ZFX holders need a break? We've got nothing! Bad news on every front, a takeover target that isn't playing nicely, help us out here
> 
> In seriousness though (forgive my awful humor; I'm trying to stay positive today, you see) - I believe someone may just have faxed over the wrong forms (perhaps a work experience girl), it would make sense that ZFX would become a substantial holder - at least by buying some shares on market.
> 
> I'm hoping to see a juicy number, like a 15, or 25%




 Ned Kelly is alive and kicking and takes the form of ZFX. How about a 1 for 1 merger. Then I'll play the game. You said it, ZFX has got nothing. AGM is an emerging giant in the nickel world.


----------



## Nyden (18 December 2007)

nioka said:


> Ned Kelly is alive and kicking and takes the form of ZFX. How about a 1 for 1 merger. Then I'll play the game. You said it, ZFX has got nothing. AGM is an emerging giant in the nickel world.




You may believe that; but I am confident enough that many holders of AGM are not as long term as yourself. Either that, or are sheep that will take any opportunity to cash in profits, & get out of this market. ZFX picked a beautiful time to do this if you ask me, whilst the market is nice & irrational


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## adobee (18 December 2007)

I think you may find under section 671B of the corporations act that possible they have to lodge these forms when trying to get shareholders to sell out to them or when they make an offer..


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## DionM (18 December 2007)

nioka said:


> Ned Kelly is alive and kicking and takes the form of ZFX. How about a 1 for 1 merger.




Well, the ZFX price only has to fall a little more and they'll be on parity pricewise anyway. 

Nyden, your awful humour has rubbed off on me!  And quit complaining about your dog stocks, I still hold PDN


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## uhu (18 December 2007)

DionM said:


> Doing my best crow impersonation.
> 
> Faaaaaaaaaaark.
> 
> ...




Well, Zinifex WAS my biggest holdings (I bought about 300 shares just before the start f subprime crisis...). (So, now, the tech is the winner...)
So, I would loose a lot of money....if I would realise my losses. The question is:
- Is this the bottom, so, we should hold
- Or, Zfx will be weaker....(some weeks ago when I tipped the chanse of 12-13 aud....most of You couldn't beleive it.


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## 3MT (18 December 2007)

besides the market, the zfx rumour mill is also down. It needs to be operational again for the SP to rise.

I wonder if AGM shareholders see that perhaps the best thing to do is accept the offer and then buy ZFX shares while its low. If they really believe AGM will be rerated after its first shipment, then so will ZFX.


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## lazydays (19 December 2007)

I bought at $11.90........gotta get my Pasminco money back somehow !!!!!
Pasminco share holders got nothing back...Zinifex got the best Zinc mine in the world.........bet none of the directors that sent Pasminco broke missed out


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## Nyden (19 December 2007)

lazydays said:


> I bought at $11.90........gotta get my Pasminco money back somehow !!!!!
> Pasminco share holders got nothing back...Zinifex got the best Zinc mine in the world.........bet none of the directors that sent Pasminco broke missed out




The ghost of Pasminco haunts us all apparently  I never held them, but it certainly bloody well looks like ZFX is headed down the same route! What in blazes is happening to the share price...totally unjustified, cursed technical traders, not to mention you blooming bears :

At 14-15 I had a plan, it was wait for the dividends to come...and hope for another mass entry. Now that it's at 12...dividends won't save this one  Who's still holding from the 17+ days? I really feel sorry for those who bought in at 20


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## justjohn (19 December 2007)

[
I feel your PAIN Nyden ,I like you hold ZFX MID $16 opened close to its high then went backwards all day to end up on its low .Hoping for some rally over Xmas (Christmas---sorry MINTY) :chimney then I'm out ,I've had this stockc::swear:


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## DionM (19 December 2007)

I'm still holding from the mid-14s earlier this year.

I have been tempted a few times to jump back in for more, don't forget ZFX still has that big bag of cash to buy more ... however it is hard to separate IMHO the effect of the AGM offer on the ZFX SP as it's masked by so much other goings-on in the market.  So, while I'd like to duck back in, I wonder if ZFX will take a while to recover from this, and then what effect another takeover offer will have?  They've aimed at Nickel, wasn't their other target Gold?  Probably not a good time for ZFX to go chasing a gold miner, looking at what has happened to some of the goldies (LGL for example).

So while it would have been nice to top up at the lows and average down, that is playing on my mind.  There's no sign of historical support round this level either ($12ish) so I'm cautious.  Plus it would also break my rule of not investing too much in any single stock (5%-7% of my total investment per stock is my limit for companies like ZFX).

Or will Xstrata or one of the other rumoured companies finally launch a takeover offer on ZFX now?  They might get plenty of people willing to jump ship if they come in with a $15-$16 offer now (seems a few in this thread just want "out" now - could be a good barometer of general shareholder sentiment), vs the $20+ they might have had to cough up a few weeks ago?


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## mfp (19 December 2007)

I've given up on trying to pick the bottom on this stock, I am convinced there is no bottom, regardless of the PE ratio or dividend yield. In fact, the better these figures get, the more violent the sell offs are becoming, with no end in sight. It breaks through key support levels like they don't exist. It falls when the market is up and gets bludgeoned to death when the market is down. Reversals last two or three days at best, and then it cops a further 4,5,6,7 or even 8 days of consecutive falls (as is currently occuring, 8 and counting). I have never seen an ASX200 stock fall for 8 consecutive days, even in a bear market. I have had this stock to death. Wish I had registered for CFDs so I could have shorted the living daylights out of it.


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## Ken (19 December 2007)

Zinifex has just put in a bid for a company.

It is common for a stock to fall due to the stock becoming diluted when it is the predator.

Zinc prices are falling,  Zinifex is Zinc related.  

What is really drawing investors to ZFX at the moment....

We say its undervalued and has heaps of spare cash, and its a takeover target etc.....

If the market didnt swing in these volatile times, it would not give us the chance to pick up bargains.  

Also note we all understand how fast ZFX moves.

The only explanation I have for what is happening at the moment is to cast your eyes back to when BHP fell from $32 to $23.90 when we all thought copper was dropping in the ass.

Could it be a similar story with ZFX?  WE know the stock is a lot more volatile than BHP, but with base metals out of favour does this present opportunity?

This fall in ZFX has nothing to do with company itself.

Look at the complete market.

Banks
Miners
Oilers
Property


These stocks are all down.

And the stocks which are holding their ground the best

Dare we say it Telstra! What does that tell us....


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## Stan 101 (19 December 2007)

Add to Ken's post the fact we have lost 4 cents against the greenback...................................

cheers,


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## DionM (19 December 2007)

Ken makes some valid points.

mfp - regarding it not respecting support ... not true.  For some weeks before this week's turmoil and the AGM offer, ZFX respected very well the $14 mark.  Sadly it fell through it recently, perhaps due to just too much downwards pressure.  Where to from here is anyone's guess.


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## Nyden (19 December 2007)

DionM said:


> Ken makes some valid points.
> 
> mfp - regarding it not respecting support ... not true.  For some weeks before this week's turmoil and the AGM offer, ZFX respected very well the $14 mark.  Sadly it fell through it recently, perhaps due to just too much downwards pressure.  Where to from here is anyone's guess.




It seems to be holding above $11 at least, so 12 could offer new support. I'm still a long term believer, and if they manage to secure AGM at a decent price, show decent earnings...I'll hold onto them.

I believe if the AGM approve the offer, or enough holders go for it - we may just see a rise.


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## henry vanderhave (19 December 2007)

Good evening.Like the position of this stock at moment.Itsgoing to be next one to buy into,dividends good and to me seems value at this price,plus these rumours of takeover,soon as cash is free im in.


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## cybernigel (20 December 2007)

Hey has anyone noticed that it appears that Comsec has removed ZFX from the list of asx accepted securities approved to be held against margin loans??


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## DionM (20 December 2007)

cybernigel said:


> Hey has anyone noticed that it appears that Comsec has removed ZFX from the list of asx accepted securities approved to be held against margin loans??




Yep noticed that today as well.  Perhaps it has fallen too much for them to allow in margin lending, or perhaps they know something more ...


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## Nyden (21 December 2007)

cybernigel said:


> Hey has anyone noticed that it appears that Comsec has removed ZFX from the list of asx accepted securities approved to be held against margin loans??




If this is the case, I'm glad. Part of the reason this falls so hard is margin calls, which in turn trigger off more stop losses, & further margin calls. 

Maybe we'll see some stability return now


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## hacheln_mice (21 December 2007)

mfp said:


> Wish I had registered for CFDs so I could have shorted the living daylights out of it.




Could I borrow your time machine? Mine is broken. Wish I had fixed it before it broke...

Nothing beats reasoned analysis like hindsight.


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## mfp (21 December 2007)

hacheln mice,

If you're trying to take the piss out of me, you'll probably be very disappointed to know that i actually used foresight (night hindsight) this time and jumped on zfx today at 12.06, 12.15 and 12.19 (closed 12.53) when i saw the reversal take plus in the morning. These 3 parcels were actually sold above $14 recently (at a loss), but i still managed to buy them back several thousand $ cheaper today. By the way, not claiming ZFX's horror run has ended either, just trying to recoupe some big losses i've had on this stock.


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## campag (21 December 2007)

mfp said:


> hacheln mice,
> 
> If you're trying to take the piss out of me, you'll probably be very disappointed to know that i actually used foresight (night hindsight) this time and jumped on zfx today at 12.06, 12.15 and 12.19 (closed 12.53) when i saw the reversal take plus in the morning. These 3 parcels were actually sold above $14 recently (at a loss), but i still managed to buy them back several thousand $ cheaper today. By the way, not claiming ZFX's horror run has ended either, just trying to recoupe some big losses i've had on this stock.




I'd call it irony actually. Foresight! isn't that the holy grail of the market?

foresight and 'night hindsight' (whatever that is) unfortunately faculties I don’t possess


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## mfp (21 December 2007)

campag said:


> I'd call it irony actually. Foresight! isn't that the holy grail of the market?
> 
> foresight and 'night hindsight' (whatever that is) unfortunately faculties I don’t possess




Another smartarse, are you two related? Firstly, i meant to say "not hindsight", it was a typo. Secondly, it wasn't irony campag, it's called following the price action and recognising when a reversal is taking place. For most of the last 9 trading sessions, ZFX has been opening near its high and closing near its low. Today it not only hit a low early in the day, but also successfully tested and held above this weeks low of 11.80, it quickly turned green and then i was fairly confident of a reversal, which proved to be correct. Your first post sure was a very constructive one campag. Keep up the good work.


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## coolcricket (21 December 2007)

mfp said:


> hacheln mice,
> 
> If you're trying to take the piss out of me, you'll probably be very disappointed to know that i actually used foresight (night hindsight) this time and jumped on zfx today at 12.06, 12.15 and 12.19 (closed 12.53) when i saw the reversal take plus in the morning.




Wow, now thats a nice piece of aftertiming.  


But of course well done mate 

Unfortuantly, I bought in at at 14.03, thinking it had bottomed out, then it bid for AGM, ffs.


----------



## hacheln_mice (21 December 2007)

mfp said:


> hacheln mice,
> 
> If you're trying to take the piss out of me, you'll probably be very disappointed to know that i actually used foresight (night hindsight) this time and jumped on zfx today at 12.06, 12.15 and 12.19 (closed 12.53) when i saw the reversal take plus in the morning. These 3 parcels were actually sold above $14 recently (at a loss), but i still managed to buy them back several thousand $ cheaper today. By the way, not claiming ZFX's horror run has ended either, just trying to recoupe some big losses i've had on this stock.




In that case, can I borrow you goggles of foresight?  Sorry, I promise that'll be my last nasty comment...or will it?  Seriously, do you know? 

Just having fun.  Good luck with your position.


----------



## mfp (21 December 2007)

If it does continue to run (which at this stage looks probable given European markets are up about 1.5% right now and DOW futures are +86) then just below 13.74 will be where i would probably sell half if not all of my holdings, hoping to by back lower again. 13.74 was the previous low set in place on Nov 30. When it was breached Monday of this week the share price plunged all the way to 11.80 by the following day, so it will probably be strong resistance for a while. You won't see these prices on a line chart as they occured intraday, you need to look at a candle stick chart. By the way, DOW futures are absolutely no guarantee of what will transpire during the night. If the DOW gets whacked then all of the above goes out the window.


----------



## porkpie324 (22 December 2007)

mfp said:


> If it does continue to run (which at this stage looks probable given European markets are up about 1.5% right now and DOW futures are +86) then just below 13.74 will be where i would probably sell half if not all of my holdings, hoping to by back lower again. 13.74 was the previous low set in place on Nov 30. When it was breached Monday of this week the share price plunged all the way to 11.80 by the following day, so it will probably be strong resistance for a while. You won't see these prices on a line chart as they occured intraday, you need to look at a candle stick chart. By the way, DOW futures are absolutely no guarantee of what will transpire during the night. If the DOW gets whacked then all of the above goes out the window.




MFP, I just can't follow your analysis to me ZFX is still on a downtrend. the SP corrected on 15 Nov again 30 Nov, yesterday again the SP price rose, could just be another downtrend correction. It's to early to call the bottom yet and just as risky, bottom picking is a very risky way to  enter a position,  better to wait until the trend changes then enter on the upward corrections. porkpie


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## campag (22 December 2007)

Sorry if I offended you mfp, had too many festive beers at lunch! Just having a bit of fun.

Well done for picking this 'bottom' but who really knows what it will do next.

Two months ago it went to a high of 18.65 from a 'bottom' of 16.87 5 days previous and then broke through the low 3 days later. Then a 'bottom' of 14.05 (when I got stopped out with a loss!) and climbed to 16. Another 'bottom' of 13.74 jumped again to 16 and now it's climbed from another 'bottom' of about 11.80 and closed at 12.53 (my second 'bottom' pick 3 days ago). But 11.80 is its lowest low for over a year, so I don't see no support at that level. Who really knows where this is going, even if all the fundamentals are so rosy. I know I shouldn't be bottom picking and catching a falling knife, it goes against all the rules but somehow I can't keep me hands off it. I'll probably get cut to shreds again.

A bit more constructive?


----------



## tronic72 (22 December 2007)

mfp said:


> hacheln mice,
> 
> If you're trying to take the piss out of me, you'll probably be very disappointed to know that i actually used foresight (night hindsight) this time and jumped on zfx today at 12.06, 12.15 and 12.19 (closed 12.53) when i saw the reversal take plus in the morning. These 3 parcels were actually sold above $14 recently (at a loss), but i still managed to buy them back several thousand $ cheaper today. By the way, not claiming ZFX's horror run has ended either, just trying to recoupe some big losses i've had on this stock.




MFP,

I understand the theory behind selling before or during the last 7 days of losses and buying back in. That's what I've done.

But Zinifex isn't a good thing atm. You've already copped a loss on the recent sale of Zinifex. This means you'll have to make twice as much. Just because you've lost on this stock doesn't meant you won't continue to loose. I've not seem a single broker recommend ZFX recently, what does that tell you?

Hope Santa brings you a big increase in zinc prices.


----------



## vishalt (22 December 2007)

tronic72 said:


> I've not seem a single broker recommend ZFX recently, what does that tell you?



Not a lot as most brokers are pretty retarded.

"Hmm the price is going up, lets tell everyone to buy it! Hmm now its going down for no reason, we should tell clients to sell it" 

Zinc still has low stockpiles and Zinifex is still a very profitable business that for some reason has fallen out of favor with the market or the players are kicking its price down so it can leap again when Xstrata or Teck make a bid.


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## tronic72 (22 December 2007)

vishalt said:


> Not a lot as most brokers are pretty retarded.
> 
> "Hmm the price is going up, lets tell everyone to buy it! Hmm now its going down for no reason, we should tell clients to sell it"
> 
> Zinc still has low stockpiles and Zinifex is still a very profitable business that for some reason has fallen out of favor with the market or the players are kicking its price down so it can leap again when Xstrata or Teck make a bid.




What kind of comment is that???? "most brokers are pretty retarded". 

Firstly it's rude and secondly it's the kind of comment a 5 year old would make!

Zinifex in actually a higher risk business because it's fate is tied to a simple factor; the price of Zinc. 

If you are going to post, try posting something intelligent. If you are unable to be intelligent, post somewhere else.


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## hacheln_mice (22 December 2007)

tronic72 said:


> What kind of comment is that???? "most brokers are pretty retarded".
> 
> Firstly it's rude and secondly it's the kind of comment a 5 year old would make!
> 
> ...




Brokers are scum.  There are no two ways about it.  They give you 1 good tip only to draw you into 4 crappy tips.  All I can say about them is that they're either Santa in disguise, or the devil in disguise.

The only person I fully trust with my money is myself, and that's only when I'm not being influenced by the advice of another.


----------



## mfp (22 December 2007)

porkpie324 said:


> MFP, I just can't follow your analysis to me ZFX is still on a downtrend. the SP corrected on 15 Nov again 30 Nov, yesterday again the SP price rose, could just be another downtrend correction. It's to early to call the bottom yet and just as risky, bottom picking is a very risky way to  enter a position,  better to wait until the trend changes then enter on the upward corrections. porkpie




Porkpie, i'm not saying i've called the bottom, but clearly a reversal did take place. That may last as little as 1 day or may even prove to be the next 12 month low. Either way, right now i would rather be on it at an average of 12.13 (yesterday's parcels) than not. If the downtrend resumes i should be able to jump back out with at least a profit. Also, it closed at it's high, and overnight zinc was up 4% and DOW was up 205, so the position is looking even better for another day at least. One thing is for sure, i won't be waiting for ZFX to break $19 before getting back on. This was one analyst's recommendation as a safe entry point for ZFX, as this would confirm a new uptrend having broken the October high.


----------



## nikki (22 December 2007)

re ZFX,

One of the cheapest stock on the ASX200 based on PE. It is the highest gross yielding stock (gross yeild of 16%) on the ASX200 if you take out centro b/c their stats are wrong now?

On the 18th December Goldman Sachs JB Were told its clients to sell Zinifex after the Allegiance bid yesterday. 

Also this week after the Allegiance bid was announced:
Credit Suisse ceased to be a substantial shareholder in Zinifex
AXA Group reduced its substantial shareholding in Zinifex
UBS Nominees became a substantial shareholder in Zinifex


----------



## toothfairy (22 December 2007)

tronic72 said:


> MFP,
> 
> I've not seem a single broker recommend ZFX recently, what does that tell you?
> 
> Hope Santa brings you a big increase in zinc prices.




There are 2 types of "Brokers" I can think of :

1) those whose called themselves brokers, analysts or whatever and work for the media will typically tell you the opposite of what they believe. (Not saying what they believe is actually right in the first place). Because the big institutions have control over the media and request them to tell the public (ie small investors) the opposite so they can do the right thing themselves. So at the end if they are wrong, and if you follow them, then you benefit. All very uncertain in my opinion. Best to ignore, don't read newspapers etc.

2) those who you pay for services will try to tell you what they know, but if what they know is so good then why are they still working as brokers? Does not make sense. Any 5 year old can figure it out.

Can anyone think of some other brokers?

Cheers, please don't take this post too seriously OK. I don't want war.


----------



## vishalt (22 December 2007)

tronic72 said:


> What kind of comment is that???? "most brokers are pretty retarded".
> 
> Firstly it's rude and secondly it's the kind of comment a 5 year old would make!
> 
> ...



How is that rude? I'm just pointing out facts. 

I don't want to get kiddish about this with you so I won't! Most brokers were recommending Zinifex when it was $20 with around a price of $21.50 - $27. 

And whoops as it started falling before $16 they reverse course (except for JP Morgan) and say sell with a target of around $12 - $14. 

What's more amazing is how brokers jump on the same bandwagon as speculators - Zinifex is tied to zinc true, but have you noticed how the price of lead has been boiling away - yet no broker has mentioned the lead aspect of Zinifex? 

Speculators have belted down the price of Zinc EVEN as the stockpiles got lower, and most brokers will jump on the bandwagon saying "there's going to be a huge surplus!" even though all the Zinc companies like Hindustan, Korea Zinc and Teck Cominco have said there are still shortages. 

So I very firmly stand by my point that brokers are retarded, and the more you learn to trust yourself instead of a broker is the first step of winning in the stock market.


----------



## vishalt (22 December 2007)

tronic72 said:


> What kind of comment is that???? "most brokers are pretty retarded".
> 
> Firstly it's rude and secondly it's the kind of comment a 5 year old would make!
> 
> ...



How is that rude? I'm just pointing out facts. 

I don't want to get kiddish about this with you so I won't! Most brokers were recommending Zinifex when it was $20 with around a price of $21.50 - $27 citing the main reason being "there's going to be a Zinc shortage till 2009!"

And whoops as it started falling before $16 they reverse course (except for JP Morgan) and say sell with a target of around $12 - $14. 

What's more amazing is how brokers jump on the same bandwagon as speculators - Zinifex is tied to zinc true, but have you noticed how the price of lead has been boiling away - yet no broker has mentioned the lead aspect of Zinifex? 

Speculators have belted down the price of Zinc EVEN as the stockpiles got lower, and most brokers will jump on the bandwagon saying "there's going to be a huge surplus!" even though all the Zinc companies like Hindustan, Korea Zinc and Teck Cominco have said there are still shortages. 



			
				hacheln_mice said:
			
		

> So I very firmly stand by my point that brokers are retarded, and the more you learn to trust yourself instead of a broker is the first step of winning in the stock market.
> 
> Brokers are scum. There are no two ways about it. They give you 1 good tip only to draw you into 4 crappy tips. All I can say about them is that they're either Santa in disguise, or the devil in disguise.
> 
> The only person I fully trust with my money is myself, and that's only when I'm not being influenced by the advice of another.



He agrees ^^!


----------



## toothfairy (23 December 2007)

tronic72 said:


> MFP,
> 
> I've not seem a single broker recommend ZFX recently, what does that tell you?
> 
> Hope Santa brings you a big increase in zinc prices.




Actually, now that you mentioned no brokers recommend ZFX is the best reason I will buy back some on Monday. This share is my favourite.

Thanks.


----------



## dascore (23 December 2007)

Whether ZFX has bottomed , temporarily or otherwise, is best left open for debate - as the above case shows. But traders are interested to find opportunities for generating profits, and in this instance, I found a buying signal for ZFX using HOURLY charts as opposed to daily charts as shown in the chart below.

I will want to forget about whether it has bottomed or otherwise- and just trade it when the hourly selling signal comes, and then trade it again when the buy signal appears...because that is the job of the trader. 

Research has shown analysis on hourly data provide better entries and exits on almost 80% of the trades generated from a daily chart, and also reduces the size of the stops. This improves efficiency, and provides an increase of 17.8% in profits on winning trades and reduces the drawdown by 14.4% on losing trades.

But if ZFX has genuinely bottomed, I would like to know

Merry Christmas everyone!

dascore

Disclaimer: This is not investment advice and is for information and entertainment only, and may not have any value. This is NOT a recommendation for you to trade in stocks. Trading carries risk. Always consult your licensed dealer, stockbroker or licensed financial planner if you wish to trade DYOR.


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## rederob (23 December 2007)

dascore
I don't think ZFX has bottomed,
I also don't think commodities, and in this case zinc, have called the fat lady to the stage.
Despite the presumption that zinc in in oversupply, LME inventories have been flat most of the year: In fact stock levels are lower than a year ago.
There is a lot of supply coming on stream in 2008, and there is also the prospect of many of the smaller projects being put on hold.
Not only have prices slumped, all production costs have increased markedly.
Which means only the big volume, high margin projects, are now getting the nod.
My crystal ball is unwell, and I am presently about 40% cash.
I am reluctant to get back on board any equities until mid-2008, but will keep a watch on the cashed up miners, as they now have the opportunity to pick the eyes out of small fry at bargain prices.
I think nickel prices are about $5k too high at present, and expect them to tail off further into 2008 - perhaps support at around $20k.
So I will be very surprised if ZFX ups it bid substantially to nail AGM.
With sub-prime spooking all the markets at a whim, I can't see where any traction will come from in the foreseeable future.
Count me down for now, but not quite out.


----------



## adobee (23 December 2007)

I have to agree with the comments i have read so far most brokers predict stocks which are already in an uptrend.. there are not many working on a buy low sell high theory they are buy when its strong up and predict it will keep going up..  When zinifex was $20 everyone was bullish..  Credit suisse must employee a huge team of analysts what was there advise put millions in at $16 and sell out at $12 .. (spastics come to mind) and people think I care if they dont cover the stock.. you can now buy at $12 and nothing much has changed expect they are in a stronger position than before when the stock was $18..


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## mfp (24 December 2007)

To the people who bagged me for buying ZFX Friday, they're up $3300 right now. By the way, also bought PDN at 5.98 and 6.08 Friday. They're up $2720.


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## coolcricket (24 December 2007)

mfp said:


> To the people who bagged me for buying ZFX Friday, they're up $3300 right now. By the way, also bought PDN at 5.98 and 6.08 Friday. They're up $2720.




mfp, rather than "bag" you out for having the foresight to buy ZFX, and now PDN , it was really the whole aftertiming factor. Now you have added to that by stating you bought PDN last friday, just a suggestion, but for added creditibility, maybe you should have the foresight to post your moves straight after you make them???


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## mfp (24 December 2007)

9003787   31694249 21-12-2007 Buy ZFX 1,500 12.0600 12.0800 $18,119.95 28-12-2007 
9005644   31703307 21-12-2007 Buy PDN 4,000 5.9800 5.9875 $23,949.95 28-12-2007 
9005815   31702791 21-12-2007 Buy ZFX 1,500 12.1900 12.2100 $18,314.95 28-12-2007 
9005947   31705054 21-12-2007 Buy ZFX 1,500 12.1500 12.1700 $18,254.95 28-12-2007 
9006160   31706556 21-12-2007 Buy PDN 4,000 6.0800 6.0875 $24,349.95 28-12-2007 

Feel free to contact Westpac Broking to confirm the contract numbers, they're the ones on the left hand column.

PS I have no reason to lie mate. I have already stated that I have had big losses on ZFX in the last two months.
How about an apology coolcricket?

PS I have just sold 3000 ZFX, 1500 at 12.84 and 1500 at 12.79.


----------



## coolcricket (24 December 2007)

mfp said:


> 9003787   31694249 21-12-2007 Buy ZFX 1,500 12.0600 12.0800 $18,119.95 28-12-2007
> 9005644   31703307 21-12-2007 Buy PDN 4,000 5.9800 5.9875 $23,949.95 28-12-2007
> 9005815   31702791 21-12-2007 Buy ZFX 1,500 12.1900 12.2100 $18,314.95 28-12-2007
> 9005947   31705054 21-12-2007 Buy ZFX 1,500 12.1500 12.1700 $18,254.95 28-12-2007
> ...




Well done mate, much better with proof, I never accused you of lying, just aftertiming. Anyway, have a nice  christmas mfp, I'm sure it will be with the above trades. 


p.s. sorry about being skeptical before, I like the odd punt, and having experienced the "Betfair" forum, you will understand the skepticism. I am now realising that most people on here are pretty genuine, unlike the Betfair forums.


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## mfp (24 December 2007)

No problems coolcricket, apology accepted. Actually thinking of selling the other 1500, $13 looks like another top. Have a Merry Christmas


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## Nyden (28 December 2007)

Is anything happening with AGM? Are they still considering it? Are they just going to stall until they're in production, what's the go?

I wish they would just make a recommendation to shareholders already, they're not exactly a Rio-Tinto, & even they gave a faster response than this!


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## roland (28 December 2007)

You watching Zinifex Nyden? Nice recovery in the last 30 minutes - my only stock today that's gone green!


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## roland (28 December 2007)

well, at least it was green for a moment or two. I also noticed that UBS dumped a whole load of ZFX - I would have thought that would have had more impact today....


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## Nyden (28 December 2007)

roland said:


> well, at least it was green for a moment or two. I also noticed that UBS dumped a whole load of ZFX - I would have thought that would have had more impact today....




No, I was out buying a frozen iced treat  Too blooming hot today!


Came back to see even more red, it's just moronic, base metals made awesome gains over the past few days...yet our market ignores it. Once profits are reported (and if they're good...obviously) I don't see how the market can still claim doom & gloom.


----------



## adobee (28 December 2007)

roland said:


> well, at least it was green for a moment or two. I also noticed that UBS dumped a whole load of ZFX - I would have thought that would have had more impact today....




THINGS HAVE TO BE LOOKING GOOD NOW THAT THE MAJORITY OF INSTITUTIONS HAVE DUMPED IT.. THEY GOT IN AT THE WRONG TIME AND ARE GETTING OUT AT THE WRONG TIME...


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## nioka (28 December 2007)

Nyden said:


> Is anything happening with AGM? Are they still considering it? Are they just going to stall until they're in production, what's the go?
> 
> I wish they would just make a recommendation to shareholders already, they're not exactly a Rio-Tinto, & even they gave a faster response than this!




Agm have made a recommendation to shareholders. Don't take the ZFX offer. AGM is wouth more and if they stall until production all the better. As a long term AGM holder I will not take the ZFX opportunistic offer. I would like AGM to make ZFX an offer. Or would I, what does ZFX have to offer long term? Holders of ZFX could do worse than sell ZFX and put their money into AGM.


----------



## Nyden (28 December 2007)

nioka said:


> Agm have made a recommendation to shareholders. Don't take the ZFX offer. AGM is wouth more and if they stall until production all the better. As a long term AGM holder I will not take the ZFX opportunistic offer. I would like AGM to make ZFX an offer. Or would I, what does ZFX have to offer long term? Holders of ZFX could do worse than sell ZFX and put their money into AGM.





Well, fortunately that will never happen. ZFX will get AGM if they want it badly enough, make a high enough offer & the board is bound by the rules to recommend holders to accept it. They can quite easily buy up 30% on market, & get the rest off.

The fact that AGM isn't sitting on $1.50 suggests that the offer is only a hair off the perfect price, if ZFX up it, or go hostile (with an increased price) - they'll get it. I understand that you're a long term believer, but sorry 

The fact remains that AGM is still speculative (no matter how close to production), and is still at risk of many factors, no matter how finalized everything is, the time between now and the time that the first ore comes up (when is that, by the way?) is an eternity where anything can happen, and the board will be forced to take this into account.

And as far as I know, AGM may have called the offer opportunistic; but they have not flat out declined? Merely stated to hold off on a formal decision (which will probably be no). In which case ZFX will make their next move. AGM are still consulting with firms, & the likes to get recommendations on the offer, Zinifex are not stupid enough to allow AGM to come into production before acquiring it should they really want it.

Not all the holders of AGM are long-term believers like you are, they may have only recently bought in, it may just be a technical trade - and I'm sure many will accept a sure-thing profit over that risk.


----------



## Rafa (29 December 2007)

Considering there are companies going to the wall in un financiable debt... what worth is a company with 2billion in cold hard cash...

I am not surprised AGM sp is sitting around the $1 mark...

In these times of credit crunch, i think those who choose to turn down a cash offer for the possibility of debt / equity financed ventures... are very foolish.

in times like these cash is king.


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## 2020hindsight (29 December 2007)

just for the record 
here's ZFX for the last 2 years (High Low Close) + averages 
Also ZFX vs XAO for last 12 months (candlestix) + ditto (percent indicates relative preformance campared to datum of XAO)

PS I plan to do this to a few stocks - please feel free to either 
a) help out an divvy the job up between a few of us
b) suggest amendments to graphs
c) request some stocks you'd like me to post (maybe PM me)
d) tell me it's not necessary lol (or too wasteful of memory maybe?)


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## adobee (2 January 2008)

Change in directors notice -

Couple of directors have purchased extra shares on market.. All small parcels

$10k - $20k each.. quite odd really, perhaps they are feeling positive but dont want to breach regulations..


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## Nyden (2 January 2008)

adobee said:


> Change in directors notice -
> 
> Couple of directors have purchased extra shares on market.. All small parcels
> 
> $10k - $20k each.. quite odd really, perhaps they are feeling positive but dont want to breach regulations..




It isn't quite odd, and it isn't indicative of upcoming news.

From what I can see, this is just their share plan automatically buying them the shares.


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## ozrob (2 January 2008)

I was just wondering if ZFX dont spend any of the 2.2 billion on more acquisitions or the AGM offer does not succeed will they give some back to the share holders as a bonus dividend in a few months.


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## Nyden (2 January 2008)

ozrob said:


> I was just wondering if ZFX dont spend any of the 2.2 billion on more acquisitions or the AGM offer does not succeed will they give some back to the share holders as a bonus dividend in a few months.




Answering that would be pure speculation, but - in the past ZFX always do seem to give up excess profits as dividends. I *hope* they don't though, as I would like to see Zinifex start looking more towards the future.


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## YELNATS (2 January 2008)

Nyden said:


> Answering that would be pure speculation, but - in the past ZFX always do seem to give up excess profits as dividends. I *hope* they don't though, as I would like to see Zinifex start looking more towards the future.




I hope they don't either. ZFX needs to convert their huge cash assets into higher yielding assets, ie. productive mines, such as AGM's, if they are to survive and prosper longer term. 

I think they understand that and there should be some more interesting announcements in coming months.


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## porkpie324 (2 January 2008)

If I were a ZFX shareholder which at this point of time I'm not, I would rather see them purchase a nickel company thats already producing, with good prospects and no dept like IGO or MCR, although that would wipe out my 2 best traders. porkpie


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## X888 (2 January 2008)

Do you guys think ZFX will be still be paying their 70c dividend in March/April ? 

Have they announced anything to say otherwise?  Other than the decrease in zinc prices.


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## Nyden (3 January 2008)

X888 said:


> Do you guys think ZFX will be still be paying their 70c dividend in March/April ?
> 
> Have they announced anything to say otherwise?  Other than the decrease in zinc prices.




Doubt it. CommSec project an estimate of 115 for the year...which is 57.5
It could be higher though, or lower. All depends on what the new CEO does.

Those high dividends really are a double edged sword, however...that's what has become expected of ZFX. If they lose that high div yield they may just suffer, as it isn't like it's exactly a high-growth stock either, for the moment at least.


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## roland (3 January 2008)

Nyden said:


> Doubt it. CommSec project an estimate of 115 for the year...which is 57.5
> It could be higher though, or lower. All depends on what the new CEO does.
> 
> Those high dividends really are a double edged sword, however...that's what has become expected of ZFX. If they lose that high div yield they may just suffer, as it isn't like it's exactly a high-growth stock either, for the moment at least.




I think it may also depend on how much cash they will have left after the impending shopping spree. "Dedicated to Investor Returns"


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## treefrog (3 January 2008)

interesting day for ZFX today, Zn down 4% o'night and current price firmly grounded on LT 50% fib retrace at $12 with next significant support level $9 and weekly DT firmly established


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## dastrix (3 January 2008)

Can you clarify what you mean, that post was in chinese  sorry!! i'm a newbie.

LT?  Fib retrace? DT?


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## treefrog (3 January 2008)

dastrix said:


> Can you clarify what you mean, that post was in chinese  sorry!! i'm a newbie.
> 
> LT?  Fib retrace? DT?




yep sorry (wishes he could post chart but always outside forum limits)

LT - Long Term - last 3 years

50% Fib Retrace = Fibonachi Level - has retraced half the gains in much shorted time and temporilly stopped falling at that level - this level may of may not hold

DT = Down trend

ZFX has been in a solid weekly uptrend (higher highs and higher lows) but this has rolled over to a weekly downtrend (making lower highs and lower lows)(still firmly in tact) about 6 weeks ago


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## dastrix (3 January 2008)

perfect! understand  ZFX are my biggest loss. The 4% Zc drop isnt good news  Thanks for clarifying all of that!


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## Nyden (3 January 2008)

treefrog said:


> interesting day for ZFX today, Zn down 4% o'night and current price firmly grounded on LT 50% fib retrace at $12 with next significant support level $9 and weekly DT firmly established




Perhaps I'm missing something? Zinc has been way up last couple of days, there was no 4% drop? There was a 4% *gain*.


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## Nyden (4 January 2008)

I don't care if the dow drops 400 pts, if we don't see a considerable gain today, there's just no justice!

Zinc's up nearly 10% last few days, with 4% being from last night alone. Heck, all base metals are.


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## treefrog (4 January 2008)

Nyden said:


> I don't care if the dow drops 400 pts, if we don't see a considerable gain today, there's just no justice!
> 
> Zinc's up nearly 10% last few days, with 4% being from last night alone. Heck, all base metals are.




must be on dofferent timezones Nyden but back in phase today with Zn up 4% last night

previous drop pulled zincies down yesterday firmly onto major teck support line so I expect bounce off that line today and will be looking to daytrade PEM ZFX and maybe BHP north


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## treefrog (4 January 2008)

treefrog said:


> must be on dofferent timezones Nyden but back in phase today with Zn up 4% last night
> 
> previous drop pulled zincies down yesterday firmly onto major teck support line so I expect bounce off that line today and will be looking to daytrade PEM ZFX and maybe BHP north




hopped on ZFX after open (but short not long)

other two left alone but seems still negative pressure

PEM still threatening to break 2.50 support - will hop on if it does


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## treefrog (4 January 2008)

wouldn't be helping zincies to rise:

"Chennai, Dec. 30 Global zinc prices are forecast to drop by 45 per cent next year and average around $1,780 a tonne. The projection, made by Australia’s independent government economic research agency Abare, has been made on the expectations that new supply will come on line and stocks will recover as production exceeds consumption."

"Zinc price, which had run to a record $4,260 a tonne earlier this year, was quoted at $2,440 during the weekend."

full article: http://www.thehindubusinessline.com/...3150670700.htm


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## adobee (6 January 2008)

http://au.news.yahoo.com/071216/2/15a7t.html
Sunday January 6, 03:08 PM 
Avebury needs huge funding: Zinifex
Zinc miner Zinifex Ltd says Allegiance Mining NL's flagship project in Tasmania will require significant funding to realise its full potential, calling on the nickel hopeful's shareholders to accept a takeover offer.

The zinc miner has launched a two tiered all-cash takeover bid for Allegiance, valued at up to $745 million.

Zinifex chief executive officer elect Andrew Michelmore said the company's offer was compelling and provided Allegiance shareholders with "an immediate opportunity to realise a substantial all-cash premium for their investment".

"We also recognise that substantial additional investment will be needed to ensure that the full potential of the Avebury nickel project is realised," Mr Michelmore said in a statement.

The Avebury nickel project in Tasmania is near Zinifex's Rosebury zinc mine and is expected to produce about 8,500 tonnes of nickel in concentrate annually when it comes online early this year.

Allegiance chairman Tony Howland-Rose described the bid as unsolicited and opportunistic on Friday, and urged the company's shareholders to take no action until the offer is reviewed.

Zinifex has launched an all-cash offer of 90 cents for each Allegiance share and pledged to increase the bid to $1.00 a share if the company acquires more than 30 per cent of its target, or gains board approval.

At 90 cents a share, the deal is valued at $697.44 million, increasing to $744.93 million when the bid is lifted to $1.00 per share.


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## uhu (7 January 2008)

Yes, Adobee, I have already read this article at about 20 pm CET...

Well, Why did Andrew Michelmore say this? Maybe ZFX would like to urge ALLEGIANCE Mining's 's shareholders to change their Allegience shares to ZFX' shares...have you got frsh news, roumors how the takover is?


And, I think there will be a terrible day for ASX and, of course, ZFX tomorrow (today morning for you). At Friday I waited the end of the large drop, but it wasn't come.

Well, I think when I will check my portfolio at tomorrow morning, I will find only ruins...


----------



## Nyden (7 January 2008)

adobee said:


> http://au.news.yahoo.com/071216/2/15a7t.html
> Sunday January 6, 03:08 PM
> Avebury needs huge funding: Zinifex
> Zinc miner Zinifex Ltd says Allegiance Mining NL's flagship project in Tasmania will require significant funding to realise its full potential, calling on the nickel hopeful's shareholders to accept a takeover offer.
> ...




The problem is, this doesn't really help to motivate AGM holders into selling. All this does is continue the message of profit-taking, & calling it a day.

 I'm sure not all holders have the mindset of 5+ years, & once AGM make a darn formal decision already (how long does that take? Either say yes, or no - not "do nothing until we decide") ZFX can make their next move.



So, who's ready for yet another drop today on the roller coaster down!


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## roland (7 January 2008)

mmmm, anyone hazard a guess at ZFX's bottom today? Lucky Zinifex has a  difficult stock code - otherwise I'd be making some words of disgust out of ZFX


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## treefrog (7 January 2008)

last daily zinc move  up 4%

ZFX today down 6%

downtrend rules:

---------------------

Commodities Prices  

Last updated at 15:24 Sydney Time, Mon, 07 Jan 2008 


Precious Metals 
Commodity Value Change % Change 
 Silver US$/oz 15.19 -0.06 -0.3934 
 Platinum US $/oz 1539.1 -2.7 -0.1751 
 Gold US$/oz 857 -2.6 -0.3025 



Base Metals 
Commodity Value Change % Change 
 Copper US$/t 6990.5 225.5 3.3333 
 Aluminium US$/t 2447 25 1.0322 
 Nickel US$/t 29515 1410 5.0169 
 Lead US$/t 2665 72 2.7767 
 Zinc US$/t 2563 97 3.9335 
 WTI Oil US$/bl 97.9 -1.27 -1.2806 
 Tin US$/t 16550 195 1.1923


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## roland (7 January 2008)

oh well, against my better judgement, I got some more at $11.30. Have to do something about my horrible average on Zinifex - will be holding for dividend returns.


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## roland (7 January 2008)

maybe I should say, with my judgement - since I am thinking it's a bargain. $10.50 is my next target. At least they are getting easier to buy with the SP falling.....


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## adobee (7 January 2008)

roland said:


> maybe I should say, with my judgement - since I am thinking it's a bargain. $10.50 is my next target. At least they are getting easier to buy with the SP falling.....





Good call.. the way this is going you I and I think Nyden may be the new top shareholders and directors for this company !


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## Ken (7 January 2008)

I hope they dont pay the dividend

Then investors crap themselves and the share price tanks.

If you want dividends head to a property stock.

They have only paid dividends because they had nothing else to do with the cash.

They need to buy OXR.


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## Nyden (7 January 2008)

Ken said:


> I hope they dont pay the dividend
> 
> Then investors crap themselves and the share price tanks.
> 
> ...




Errr...am I right in reading that you want the share price to tank? 
At this price I sure as heck expect that dividend (unfortunately). The price has gotten itself to a point where older / existing holders are expecting that dividend just to recoup the losses! This darn stock just keeps breaking it's 52 week lows 

I too want a ZFX with a much smaller dividend, but only if we get back to more respectable price levels...say, $16-ish.

I'm depending on these dividends to pay the stock off, you see.

Ha, I'm not doing in too deep into ZFX adobee. No matter how much I *believe* it to be relatively cheap, it's still very much stuck in a downtrend. I'll be buying more, of course - but, not at the moment. I'm stalling for time 

A property stock?? Yes, because property exposure has just been so rewarding in the market lately! CNP springs to mind, what was their downfall? Starts with a P...is there a smiley for hysterical laughing? :

I'd love for them to buy OXR. OXR is my largest holding...and a big fat juicy premium is just the thing my portfolio needs at the moment.


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## treefrog (7 January 2008)

Nyden said:


> Errr...am I right in reading that you want the share price to tank?
> At this price I sure as heck expect that dividend (unfortunately). The price has gotten itself to a point where older / existing holders are expecting that dividend just to recoup the losses! This darn stock just keeps breaking it's 52 week lows
> 
> I too want a ZFX with a much smaller dividend, but only if we get back to more respectable price levels...say, $16-ish.
> ...




I suspect the analysts continuing to revise ZFX earnings for 08 and 09 down has a lot to do with current market sentiment

and agree whether to maintain the 70c div each half must be a dilemma for them and shareholders - if they pay that it would tend to tank the shareprice a similar amount - a least in the short term

A lot aren't waiting to find out what the divvy will be


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## Ken (7 January 2008)

Well if ZFX tanks I can buy more.

I'd rather buy another 5000 at $8 than 5000 @ $11.35.

Just because a stock is in a downtrend does not mean it will not come out of one.

For those who care. My opinion is the harder a stock runs the harder it falls, and the harder the next run is going to be..... this may just be the nature of ZFX.


Surely long term holders from day 1 would have experience the exact same downtrend as we see today at some point.....

ZFX may very well diversify into copper, and iron ore, and lead, and maybe even gold.

Zinc has given them the opportunity to become diverisified, if I am not mistaken this is how they all start???

As long as China keeps booming, the demand for minerals is going to be high, and companies like ZFX are going to exploit that. This does not mean the stock price is not allowed to have a downtrend.... does it?

There is global uncertainty. Maybe hedge funds are getting out of ZFX?

Maybe it was overpriced?


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## Nyden (7 January 2008)

Ken said:


> Well if ZFX tanks I can buy more.
> 
> I'd rather buy another 5000 at $8 than 5000 @ $11.35.
> 
> ...




To state the absolute obvious ~
  I believe one of the main reasons the price of ZFX has fallen so hard, is simply the fact of the price of Zinc basically being cut in half this year. Which stands to reason for the price to decline as well. 

The market does not seem to let the P/E ratio of ZFX exceed 6; my guess is; that's all the risk we're willing to place on it whilst it's only a Zinc play. It is my *hope* that once it becomes more diversified, the market will slap a greater premium on the share price, and we'll start to see a P/E ratio more comparable to other miners.

There *is* risk in Zinifex, despite all the prospects. A spec has prospects, yet isn't anywhere near valued to that respect. Same scenario here. Current mines have a relatively short life left, bunch of explorations, looking for acquisitions, ZFX is basically a cashed-up spec with infrastructure : A whole lot of unknowns. The market doesn't like 'em. 

Well, sure it would be nice to buy at $8, but what about your existing holding? They'd have declined so majorly at that point. It's easy to say you have a long-term view, but should you need emergency funds at one point or another in the not-to-distant future, or if the markets continue to deteriorate, would be awful to sell shares at a 50+% loss.



& I certainly hope ZFX recovers hard tomorrow! Although, I doubt we'll even see 3-4%, little alone the 7 that was wiped clear today


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## Tukker (8 January 2008)

Hello everyone, first time posting, love the forum.

With all the talk of dividends and price floors (whether that has any relevance to this share) going on, are we sidetracked by yet another possible?

What about all this talk of takeovers?  News came out the other day that Zinifex is one of the more likely takeover targets for 2008.

"...According to Jo Clarke in today's Financial Review to the top eight takeover targets for 2008 are:

1. Oxiana: base and precious metals in Australia and Laos
2. Zinifex: zinc and lead mining in Australia
3. Lihir Gold (ASX:LGL): Gold in PNG and Australia
4. Albidon (ASX:ALB): nickel in Australia
5. Western Areas (ASX:WSA): nickel in Australia
6. Equinox (ASX:EQN): copper in Zambia
7. CBH Resources (ASX:CBH): zinc and lead in Australia
8. Andean Resources (ASX:AND): gold in South America...",Dan Denning (http://www.bitsofnews.com/content/view/6646/)


In a time of many companies finding growth through consolidation whats the chances of the predator becoming the prey?  And what value would you place on ZFX.

If i got a half decent offer you can be sure I'd sell.


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## ozrob (8 January 2008)

Tukker said:


> If i got a half decent offer you can be sure I'd sell.




I think just about everyone out there holding ZFC would happily sell if any sort take over offer was to materialize.
I would have thought with the share price so low anyone who was interested in taking them over would start buying up a initial stake.


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## hacheln_mice (8 January 2008)

Nyden said:


> To state the absolute obvious ~
> Well, sure it would be nice to buy at $8, but what about your existing holding? They'd have declined so majorly at that point. It's easy to say you have a long-term view, but should you need emergency funds at one point or another in the not-to-distant future, or if the markets continue to deteriorate, would be awful to sell shares at a 50+% loss.




It seems like you are finally starting to make some sense here. Kudos.

I'm *not *saying that ZFX/or zinc will head to zero here, or can't shoot off to new highs, but one needs to be aware of the potential that there is a value trap.

The value trap is described here in the context of the US homebuilders and hopefully it'll shed some light on what I mean.

_HOUSING…All we are left with is another case study in fear greed and leverage. I started writing the case study back in February of 2007 (Wall Street set this case study in motion when housing stocks first broke out to new highs in 2002):

    Homebuilders - The NEW Value Trap

    Five years from now when the homebuilding stocks are 20-30 percent lower and marking time, small investors will all own shares in what the institutions have distributed to them since mid 2006.  The companies are not crap and they won’t be in 5 years, but the stocks will be value traps. Victims of a badly ended trend where the stocks were overowned and overhyped.   It is no one person’s fault, it is just the way Wall Street works. They are just not real growth stocks. Nothing was different this time and no particular CEO or management team will be totally immune.  The industry will continue to go out of favor with Mutual Funds. That does not mean you should sell your home or get bearish on the world. Hundreds of new trends have been emerging since the homebuilders peaked last spring.  Do not overthink it and get sucked into buying value. That’s for Warren Buffett and a select few, great value managers. Housing stocks, not housing as a business in general are done. Housing is cyclical, always has been, always will be. You CAN overbuild, just like you can make too much capacity for semiconductors (*or zinc*). With homebuilders, leverage sped things up. I disregarded my own analysis and in the Fall I bought the housing sector for a short-term bounce trade. That was my worst idea of the year. I quickly took my losses and have watching the mess once again from the sidelines.

I never tried to call a top in housing, but definitely warned that it would get worse after they had already fallen 50 percent back in February. I followed up repeatedly . I guess that’s why the permabears ‘disgust’ me so. As if calling a top makes you a special gifted market person o).  I guess I was wrong about housing stocks being a value trap way back when . They never made it to value, just straight to bankruptcy.  Owning them now is not for anyone other than forensic accountants who have a crystal ball into The Fed and lenders tolerance or for penny stock speculators. _

*I think Howard sums it up best when he concludes that:*

_Wall Street is cooking up the supply (for China & Solar). Timing when it overtakes demand is a fool’s game, but it will happen. China is on the verge of another break, while Solar seems to be just getting legs. Both will end the same way, but you don’t need to predict when, *just avoid being the YUTZ’s holding the shares once it is clear the trend has run it’s course.*_


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## Nyden (8 January 2008)

Who wants to bet on when we'll see $10? Only 18c off now!
I'm glad I haven't been topping off at least


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## roland (8 January 2008)

Nyden said:


> Who wants to bet on when we'll see $10? Only 18c off now!
> I'm glad I haven't been topping off at least




I think you mean $11 - unless my Comsec is very delayed. Aegis, just changed from Hold to Buy for Zinifex

Investment Opinion
ZFX is one of the world’s largest zinc and lead producers, with a portfolio of mines supplying approximately 6% of the global demand for zinc and 4% for lead. The company is unhedged, which leaves it exposed to the volatility of commodity prices and exchange rates. We have a neutral long-term view on the stock.

The Century and Rosebery mining operations are performing strongly, particularly on the back of historically high zinc and lead prices, with zinc LME inventories at year-year lows. At its current share price, we have a positive 12-month view on ZFX.

Risks
Zinifex is a high-risk investment exposed to the volatility of the zinc and lead markets. Historically, these commodities have suffered longer periods of weak prices and poor returns. 

Strategic Direction
ZFX has now ceased to be a vertically integrated business and is now a pure mining company. Its most significant challenge is to maintain the company's resource base. It plans to do this by pursuing both organic and acquisition growth routes. ZFX has launched an all-cash offer for Allegiance Mining. ZFX has offered a two-tiered pricing structure, an initial bid of $0.90 per share, increasing to $1.00 per share if ZFX acquires more than 30% or if the Allegiance board recommends the offer.

Earnings Outlook
ZFX expects that if metal prices remain at current levels, increased revenue should more than offset any expected cost escalation and deliver another excellent result in 1H08. Following the successfully floated Nyrstar in October 2007, we expect EPS to decrease 44% from FY07A to 185cps in FY08F and decline a further 11% in FY09F to 165cps.


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## Nyden (8 January 2008)

roland said:


> I think you mean $11 - unless my Comsec is very delayed. Aegis, just changed from Hold to Buy for Zinifex
> 
> Investment Opinion
> ZFX is one of the world’s largest zinc and lead producers, with a portfolio of mines supplying approximately 6% of the global demand for zinc and 4% for lead. The company is unhedged, which leaves it exposed to the volatility of commodity prices and exchange rates. We have a neutral long-term view on the stock.
> ...





Heh, I obviously don't mean 10.00, but rather 10.99 - the $10 *range*. Seeing that 10 would be rather painful.

I stand by my previous remark - I will be topping up..when things start to look more rosy : 

I'm not exactly sure why are markets are down today at all, resource stocks especially - the commodity gains managed to hold? They've risen rather drastically last few days, yet the corresponding stocks have not followed suit in the slightest. One thing's for sure, it isn't a fundamental market at the moment.

This AGM situation is messy as well. They're off exploring now, 10% of their shares are held by a Chinese group - I don't know how they're going to secure that. That 10% will block the takeover if they refuse to sell.

It's becoming incredibly difficult to stay positive on this stock! It just keeps continuing its trend of being hit the hardest, & recovering the softest. 1 step forward, 2 steps back does not make for a good price :

This fundie is a fish out of water at the moment


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## prawn_86 (8 January 2008)

Nyden said:


> This fundie is a fish out of water at the moment




Not really on topic, but i have to agree with you Nyden.

Most of my stocks are defying 'logic' at the moment.

Damn panic sellers/smart money/everyone else that doesnt share my view


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## porkpie324 (8 January 2008)

Looking at the daily chart of ZFX apart from the obvious downtrend the share price rallied on well above average volume on 15/11/07, 30/11/07 & 21/12/07 these rallies were short lived and the share price fell away on low to average volume. So could we be expecting a change in direction, technically it should be although there's no divergance yet on MACD or Stochastic indicators.
At this point I'm out of ZFX, I feel that the market would be more in favour of ZFX taking a company already producing with good long reserves with no dept and not zillions of shares on issue like IGO, MCR, SMY.Porkpie


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## treefrog (8 January 2008)

when the volcano is spewing red hot molten lava its not a good idea to run up the mountain and try to stop the flow - better to turn and run down the mountain with it

its quite a while since I've used my downtrending fib projection tool but punching in the ABC points for ZFX of 2160; 1475; 1885 it give the first resistance target of 1460 (bingo) the second of 1200 (recent bingo) and the final target 777

don't shoot the messenger


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## porkpie324 (8 January 2008)

Which 'froggy' is why i'm out of ZFX now and have been since late 2006, I simply hate giving up hard earned profits back to the market. But I'm always looking at sound miners shares in distress. Sooner or later ZFX will turn around and November & December share price action caught my eye.porkpie


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## 3MT (8 January 2008)

To be ahead of the statistical 90% ish who lose money trading on the stock market one has to avoid the herd mentality. Right now the herd says get out of zinifex.

There is obviously no certainty in life but I am waiting for a technical correction(market) before jumping back on this miner (albeit not with my life savings). Its getting near that 5BN capitalisation, about twice its cash balance.

AGM is a good strategic buy, but not the only one.


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## adobee (9 January 2008)

With zinifex getting cheaper and cheaper you would think it has to be more appealing to those companies considering a take over attempt. I hope that zinifexs take over gets knocked back quickly and then someone makes a move on zinifex.. I would be ready to accept an offer as I am sure many others are..


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## Nyden (9 January 2008)

adobee said:


> With zinifex getting cheaper and cheaper you would think it has to be more appealing to those companies considering a take over attempt. I hope that zinifexs take over gets knocked back quickly and then someone makes a move on zinifex.. I would be ready to accept an offer as I am sure many others are..




The many uncertainties that keep market-buyers away from Zinifex, may unfortunately keep acquirers away as well.

Fortunately, all of my stocks pay dividends - with the price of base metals continuing it's climb as of late, I'm not too concerned with all of this pricing. It truly is a market gone mad, where base metals can increase 1-4% overnight, yet none of the corresponding stocks follow. Great buying op though, increased earnings, decreased price.

People also seem to be already counting their chickens here before they've had time to hatch! AGM hasn't been bought yet. We can't call it a good move by Zinifex, until the move has at least made *some* progress, & I've yet to see an announcement of substantial holdings. 

Personally, I am very doubtful with regards to the takeover, simply because a blocking share of 10% of AGM is held by the Chinese, if they don't sell - even if Zinifex gets 90% (I believe the takeover requirement is 96 or 98?), they cannot take it over.

We don't know whether zinifex will keep pursuing AGM, & we still don't know what other targets they have / what will become of the remaining money they have.


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## nioka (9 January 2008)

Nyden said:


> The many uncertainties that keep market-buyers away from Zinifex, may unfortunately keep acquirers away as well.
> 
> Fortunately, all of my stocks pay dividends - with the price of base metals continuing it's climb as of late, I'm not too concerned with all of this pricing. It truly is a market gone mad, where base metals can increase 1-4% overnight, yet none of the corresponding stocks follow. Great buying op though, increased earnings, decreased price.
> 
> ...




The offer for AGM can not be taken seriously. No AGM holder could be expected to fill out the application form as offered. All the applicant is offered is 90c share ( the price that will be paid if there is less than 30% and no recommendation from AGM directors) Maybe they are hoping to get 20 to 30% at that price then start another offer. If the Chinese don't sell then my small holding may be a foctor after all as I will be the last to sell. The only reason to sell would be to sell and buy ZFX and still get a benefit from AGM's potential but I don't see ZFX as good value even at the present discounted prices (as this thread suggests). Because of the good dividends in the past the SP of ZFX is inflated beyond their long term potential. I believe their price has a further fall indicated.


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## Nyden (9 January 2008)

nioka said:


> The offer for AGM can not be taken seriously. No AGM holder could be expected to fill out the application form as offered. All the applicant is offered is 90c share ( the price that will be paid if there is less than 30% and no recommendation from AGM directors) Maybe they are hoping to get 20 to 30% at that price then start another offer. If the Chinese don't sell then my small holding may be a foctor after all as I will be the last to sell. The only reason to sell would be to sell and buy ZFX and still get a benefit from AGM's potential but I don't see ZFX as good value even at the present discounted prices (as this thread suggests). Because of the good dividends in the past the SP of ZFX is inflated beyond their long term potential. I believe their price has a further fall indicated.




What I do agree with, is the fact that no one in their right mind would accept at 90c. The 2-tier offer was quite foolish of ZFX, it should have been unconditional at $1. Who the heck would sell for 15c under market price? 

I hope Zinifex make an offer that makes both parties happy.

Oh good, some sanity is returning to the markets! Zinifex up nearly 4% (correction, 3% now)


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## Ashsaege (9 January 2008)

ZFX up 33cents today... now lets keep up that pace for the next 10 days!

Bit higher volume as well. Tho has the price of zinc gone down today?


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## roland (10 January 2008)

Well, Zinifex started well enough, then fell on it's ****. What a lovely stock to have too many of, ho hum


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## banska bystrica (10 January 2008)

They will probably make the AGM offer unconditional at $1.15-$1.20 and at that price they will get 90%+. Those wanting to hold will be forced to sell once ZFX have got 90%.
Remember, without this offer, AGM would have been smashed with the rest of the market. They were 65c before the rumours started circulating that a predator was on the prowl for AGM. Since then the market had lost 10% so I would suggest AGM would be trading at around 55-60c now.
ZFX WILL GET AGM, albeit at a higher price than $1 but not much higher.
In the absence of another bidder, you watch AGM holders bail at $1.15-$1.20.


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## roland (10 January 2008)

How can it happen so often that Zinifex has a big swing up and down, only to finish the day exactly where it started. It seems to happen so often that it's almost scary!


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## 3MT (10 January 2008)

[Dow Jones] Zinifex (ZFX.AU) up 0.5% at A$11.61, hit A$11.80 despite 3.5% fall in LME zinc. Traders not seeing much volume and there are no takeover rumors today, so early strength may not be significant. But A$11.54 is major technical support, being 50% retracement of lifetime rally. Weekly close above that level would be bullish after this week's fall to 16-month low of A$11.10. Zinifex is cashed up and would be a good fit for any cash-poor mining company with good prospects. Key resistance A$11.80. (DWR)


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## chops_a_must (10 January 2008)

3MT said:


> [Dow Jones] Zinifex (ZFX.AU) up 0.5% at A$11.61, hit A$11.80 despite 3.5% fall in LME zinc. Traders not seeing much volume and there are no takeover rumors today, so early strength may not be significant. But A$11.54 is major technical support, being 50% retracement of lifetime rally. Weekly close above that level would be bullish after this week's fall to 16-month low of A$11.10. Zinifex is cashed up and would be a good fit for any cash-poor mining company with good prospects. Key resistance A$11.80. (DWR)




It's lined up with the exact ABC correction me and Nick were talking about a few pages back.

That's twice it's shied away and reversed hard from this area now. I'm not an expert with what happens post these ABC corrections, but they can move hard out of them. I don't know what the long term implications are, but after hitting the C area, a new trend is meant to eventuate. I guess the overall market will dictate that to a large extent, and depending on how it pans out over the next few weeks, it might be a good area for me to do a bottom draw job on these.


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## legs (11 January 2008)

Hunmtley's now upgrade from an "accumulate" to a "buy" recommendation. The only "buy" I have seen for a while.


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## treefrog (11 January 2008)

chops_a_must said:


> It's lined up with the exact ABC correction me and Nick were talking about a few pages back.
> 
> That's twice it's shied away and reversed hard from this area now. I'm not an expert with what happens post these ABC corrections, but they can move hard out of them. I don't know what the long term implications are, but after hitting the C area, a new trend is meant to eventuate. I guess the overall market will dictate that to a large extent, and depending on how it pans out over the next few weeks, it might be a good area for me to do a bottom draw job on these.




ZFX pretty reliably pivoting on the fib levels and often quite severly

agree the current stall (turn??) from the recent down leg is on the 50% LT point of $1140 but the one just prior was at the fib extension of ABC price action since its top
the first target from the top was $1490 (confirmed - heaps of resistance in that area) 
the second $1140 (confirmed) but moved on to the biggie at 1140

just taking the price action since dec5 the ST fib targets are 1178 (not really tradable on daily fib scale as it has been necessary to wait to confirm the bottom
second level 1220 (today??)
third level 1288 (today??)


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## treefrog (11 January 2008)

treefrog said:


> ZFX pretty reliably pivoting on the fib levels and often quite severly
> 
> agree the current stall (turn??) from the recent down leg is on the 50% LT point of $1140 but the one just prior was at the fib extension of ABC price action since its top
> the first target from the top was $1490 (confirmed - heaps of resistance in that area)
> ...




oops! correction in bold

daffy, donald, mickey, bugs, road runner, goofy, taz,  - needed more characters


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## Gurgler (11 January 2008)

treefrog said:


> oops! correction in bold
> 
> daffy, donald, mickey, bugs, road runner, goofy, taz,  - needed more characters




ROFL

But seriously, TF can you elaborate on how you arrive at the $14.90 figure which you say is confirmed - how? I can see the $11.90 on the chart.

I ask from a point of ignorance, not of criticism, you understand.


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## treefrog (11 January 2008)

Gurgler said:


> ROFL
> 
> But seriously, TF can you elaborate on how you arrive at the $14.90 figure which you say is confirmed - how? I can see the $11.90 on the chart.
> 
> I ask from a point of ignorance, not of criticism, you understand.




 	Fibonacci Projections	 	 

 	 	INPUT				 
 	A  	2164		 
 	B 	1471		 
 	C 	1870	*1442    1177	749* 


this is the data as it displays in a small excel program to input the typical A (start of down leg) B  (bottom of run {reversal}) C  top of run (reversal again) and the bold values are the first, second, and possibly third targets of the next down leg
the numbers here are for the main zig zag  downer from the top for ZFX

if you think you may be interested I can send you the program	 	 	 	 	 
 the main retrace is simply the overall up leg from 180 to 2100 (roughly) and the 50% retrace of that is the $11.40 referred to	 	 	 	 	 	 
 use for any ABC pattern - either up or down

often works but as always fundamentals trump t/a

it helps overcome the trader's main dilemma "is that turning and how far will it reverse??" because you are aware of the prospective turning points and projected retraces


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## nioka (11 January 2008)

The ZFX offer for AGM looks as though it will fail. The chinese partner, Jinchuan, who hold over 10% of AGM have given the directors of AGM a letter of support and will not accept the offer. Good news for AGM holders in my opinion.


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## Warren Buffet II (11 January 2008)

nioka said:


> The ZFX offer for AGM looks as though it will fail. The chinese partner, Jinchuan, who hold over 10% of AGM have given the directors of AGM a letter of support and will not accept the offer. Good news for AGM holders in my opinion.




Good news for Zinifex in my opinion, I do not want them to overpaid for any company considering the current market. $1 is more than enough.
WBII


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## nioka (11 January 2008)

Warren Buffet II said:


> Good news for Zinifex in my opinion, I do not want them to overpaid for any company considering the current market. $1 is more than enough.
> WBII



  Good that it makes us both happy, it isn't usual for both sides to be happy in a situation like this. It will be interesting to see who is the happiest in six months time.


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## banska bystrica (11 January 2008)

nioka said:


> The ZFX offer for AGM looks as though it will fail. The chinese partner, Jinchuan, who hold over 10% of AGM have given the directors of AGM a letter of support and will not accept the offer. Good news for AGM holders in my opinion.




ZFX will offer around $1.15. $1.20 tops and that will be enough. In the current market, they will be flooded with signed forms accepting $1.15...$1.20
Without ZFX, AGM are 50c the way the market is. They were 65c before ZFX came along. Since then the market has been smashed. 
I'm sure Jinchuan will work nicely with ZFX. Their offtake agreement is binding on whoever buys AGM.


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## treefrog (11 January 2008)

nioka said:


> The ZFX offer for AGM looks as though it will fail. The chinese partner, Jinchuan, who hold over 10% of AGM have given the directors of AGM a letter of support and will not accept the offer. Good news for AGM holders in my opinion.




hi Nioka
just read Jinchuan's letter and it doesn't say they will not accept the ZFX offer - even at $1 - they just say they support the AGM board and obviously the board can decide anything

the only way you are sure of saving AGM from the clutches of ZFX is to get yourself a controlling interest in AGM of 50.1%


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## 3MT (12 January 2008)

My crystal ball for the coming weeks tells me that ZFX will up its AGM price to 1.18. Jinchuan gives it the nod and ups its stake in ZFX to 5% looking to hold 10% going forward. Tha ball won't tell me what will happen to the ZFX SP though it did reveal that another takeover announcement by Michelmore was imminent, this time for a copper miner/producer.

The banks continue their rate rise, this time increasing their business lending rates a crazy 5% above the consumer rate justifying it as prudent risk management.

Companies with short/medium term debt obligations continue to get pounded dragging the XAO to its 5600 support where it will remain steady until mid 2008. The market seems to be well supported by superfunds with nowhere else to park their money.

I am also told that Cash Is King, whatever that means.


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## nioka (12 January 2008)

treefrog said:


> hi Nioka
> just read Jinchuan's letter and it doesn't say they will not accept the ZFX offer - even at $1 - they just say they support the AGM board and obviously the board can decide anything
> 
> the only way you are sure of saving AGM from the clutches of ZFX is to get yourself a controlling interest in AGM of 50.1%




From today's Australian. "Jinchuan vows not to sell Allegience stake".. Going on to say "Takeover target Allegience Mining was buoyed by it's largest shareholder, Chinese nickel giant Jinchuan strongly backing the board in the face of a hostile bidfrom the zinc giant Zinifex."
I like to think I am one of the many who will hold out. It does not need 50.1% to hold out. ZFX has to get a lot more than that before they can completely take over the Company.


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## treefrog (12 January 2008)

nioka said:


> From today's Australian. "Jinchuan vows not to sell Allegience stake".. Going on to say "Takeover target Allegience Mining was buoyed by it's largest shareholder, Chinese nickel giant Jinchuan strongly backing the board in the face of a hostile bidfrom the zinc giant Zinifex."
> I like to think I am one of the many who will hold out. It does not need 50.1% to hold out. ZFX has to get a lot more than that before they can completely take over the Company.




1) maybe you should read the actual letter

2) never trust a broker

3) never trust a journalist

4) 50.1% is a controlling interest

5) never let emotion interfere with trading stocks

(all just suggestions based on experience)


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## PBH (12 January 2008)

nioka said:


> It does not need 50.1% to hold out. ZFX has to get a lot more than that before they can completely take over the Company.




I just hope ZFX has a plan B. 
Sure this a great opportunity to diversify into nickel, but it's definately not worth losing an arm and a leg over.

As someone mentioned before; given current market conditions and the AGM shareprice before the offer, the current premium ZFX is offering is MORE than sufficient.

Let the AGM shareholders hold out if they want to, only to subsequently watch their shares plummet back down to $0.65-0.70 as ZFX withdraws it's offer.

I just hope that the directors don't become 'obsessed' with AGM and end up paying more than they have to. It would be good for them to keep an open mind, and given the current downturn in the markets, there is every chance that other opportunities will present themselves.

As for ZFX's fortunes; I will be buying at $9.50......  see you guys down there....


----------



## nioka (12 January 2008)

treefrog said:


> 1) maybe you should read the actual letter
> 
> 2) never trust a broker
> 
> ...




1. I have 

2. Don't use brokers.

3. Agree but they do influence events.

4. Under company law a "controlling interest" can do nothing that will be detrimental to minority shareholders. The company will still operate as a separate identity.

5. Emotion doesn't come into this matter. I just don't want to be sold short.

( also based on many years experience and one as a major shareholder and director of a company where minority shareholders were a "pain in the neck.")


----------



## Warren Buffet II (14 January 2008)

ZFX only needs 50.1%, who cares about the Chinese, they can get a controlling stake and then renegociate the contract with the Chinese company, if they do not like the new offer see you next time.

This Chinese company is only making smoke because they have an agreement for the production of AGM, no more than that, it is not about price.

WBII


----------



## Gundini (14 January 2008)

PBH said:


> As for ZFX's fortunes; I will be buying at $9.50......  see you guys down there....




Seems unbelievable to be talking about ZFX at these levels. I think you will get you wish, but I do wonder what support it will have at $9.50... Very solid downtrend and you could well pick this baby up for $8... IMO...


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## nioka (14 January 2008)

ZFX holders should be more worried why the SP of ZFX has fallen so much in the last 6 months rather than concentrate on a takeover of AGM. This fall started long before the attempted take over of AGM was mooted. Is the takeover of AGM a desperate attempt to reverse this alarming trend by getting another potential cash cow on the cheap?. The chart for ZFX is dismal to say the least. I'm glad that I hold AGM and not ZFX.


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## porkpie324 (14 January 2008)

I agree 'NIOKA', also I think the market is not confident with the AGM take over, as I have written previously IGO MCR WSA or SMY would have been a better objective.porkpie


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## oldblue (14 January 2008)

porkpie324 said:


> I agree 'NIOKA', also I think the market is not confident with the AGM take over, as I have written previously IGO MCR WSA or SMY would have been a better objective.porkpie




Why would MCR be a t/o prospect for ZFX?

I may be missing something here but I understood that all of MCR's output was conracted to BHP for some time yet.


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## porkpie324 (14 January 2008)

Because ZFX would be buying a profitable miner with an established mine(s) operating, no dept, proven reserves,and not zillions of shares on issue. So what if BHP processes the Nickel? It's similar with the nickel miners I mentioned.
What ever ZFX's intentions are with AGM the market doesn't seem to like it.porkpie


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## ROE (14 January 2008)

Maybe the market doesnt like zfx to spend money during volatile time 
especially paying a premium when every other stock is going south


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## DionM (14 January 2008)

ZFX really does seem to be in a free-fall, doesn't it.

It's gone from the star performer in my portfolio to the worst.  Though having said that, I do have quite a few big losses in my portfolio at present now 

There are so many factors influencing the SP at present it's hard to separate out them out - POZn, general market fall, AGM offer, takeover rumours (of ZFX) ... no wonder the SP is a mess.  Not good for holders like myself though ...


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## tronic72 (14 January 2008)

I've been keeping an eye on ZFX for a while now and have held on and off over the last few years, both as an Investor and Trader.

I thought holders of ZFX might take cold comfort from the fact that Aspect Huntley has upgraded their recommendation to a Buy due to the current low price. I've noticed that a few others are changing their recommendation and I tend to agree that at current prices ZFX is oversold. Sure, there may be some more downside but I think the share price is very close to the bottom. 

I purchased ZFX today at 1045. (also purchased SDL @ 29.5, BNB @ 2200 and AWC @ 610).


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## Gundini (14 January 2008)

I think the following charts may give a hint to the ordinary performance of ZFX in the last 6 months.


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## Gundini (14 January 2008)

Gundini said:


> I think the following charts may give a hint to the ordinary performance of ZFX in the last 6 months.




Something else to consider, old news yes, but important all the same.

China to become net zinc exporter this year
(Agencies)
Updated: 2007-05-31 14:31

China is set to become a net exporter of refined zinc this year, due to oversupply pressure and a slowdown in domestic demand, said a Chinese zinc expert at the China International Nonferrous Metals Market Conference 2007, held in Hong Kong yesterday. 

Full story here:

www.chinadaily.com.cn/bizchina/2007-05/31/content_884472.htm


----------



## treefrog (14 January 2008)

Gundini said:


> Something else to consider, old news yes, but important all the same.
> 
> China to become net zinc exporter this year
> (Agencies)
> ...




and century mining getting close to end of life wouldn't be helping - they desperately need significant extra in ground finds/takeovers


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## Nyden (14 January 2008)

Wow. Does this stock even have a bottom? :

Gosh, you know - if I was smart I would sell out before it drops even further! But, I intend on holding it for a few years. Hopefully if they continue the dividends...I'll have nearly paid off the stock by then anyway, & will be free-holding. 

I'm just going to let this one ride as a spec, hold it even if it hits $1!

I am *contemplating* buying more, but I doubt I will. As the market in general falls, stocks that seem to bounce back much stronger (ie OXR), just seem to be a better buy. As opposed to Zini that seems to fall hard, & recover with pitiful effort.

Where does T/A see ZFX heading?

Most analysts for Zinc seem to believe that current prices are about right for the rest of the year, so this earnings report season will be rather important as to give the market something to (fundamentally) cling to with regards to potential future earnings. 

The analysts at CommSec still seem to believe they'll pull in earnings of 140c this year (give or take a few %) They also estimate dividends of 115 - I sincerely hope this is inaccurate to be honest. Last year they only gave up a little over half their profits, if these estimates are correct they'll nearly be giving up all of their profits back to holders. That would be disappointing. Which is why I'm reluctant to buy more! Can we really depend on them to give up the bulk of their profits?

I'm under the impression (perhaps wrong) that their Lead output is to increase this year? Or was that their Zinc output? At any rate, high Lead prices may just be enough to spurr on some good earnings


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## michael_selway (14 January 2008)

Nyden said:


> Wow. Does this stock even have a bottom? :
> 
> Gosh, you know - if I was smart I would sell out before it drops even further! But, I intend on holding it for a few years. Hopefully if they continue the dividends...I'll have nearly paid off the stock by then anyway, & will be free-holding.
> 
> ...




$10.00 looks like a good long term price trend, with sustaianble yeild, they just need to increase minelife

*Earnings and Dividends Forecast (cents per share) 
2007 2008 2009 2010 
EPS 274.1 140.4 99.0 104.4 
DPS 140.0 115.5 70.0 57.5 *

thx

MS


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## Nyden (15 January 2008)

Nyden said:


> I am *contemplating* buying more, but I doubt I will. As the market in general falls, stocks that seem to bounce back much stronger (ie OXR), just seem to be a better buy. As opposed to Zini that seems to fall hard, & recover with pitiful effort.




Sigh, case & point.

On the open (could change, but probably won't with ZFX), most of my stocks that were hit lightly yesterday have doubled the gains recovered from yesterdays loss. Whilst Zinifex? Hasn't even made a third back. Terrible volume as well.

Good thing capital losses keep for years! I just *know* if I sell, 2 days later we'll see a 10% gain on the back of some Zinc disaster, a takeover bid, or this AGM mess being cleaned up.


I can honestly see a loss coming today  Based on absolutely nothing, of course!


----------



## shaunnell (15 January 2008)

Nyden said:


> Good thing capital losses keep for years! I just *know* if I sell, 2 days later we'll see a 10% gain on the back of some Zinc disaster, a takeover bid, or this AGM mess being cleaned up.




Well please hurry up and sell already so the rest of us can get the 10% gain...

ZFX is by far the worst performer in my portfolio but my ego will not allow me to sell.  I wish I could separate emotion from my trading but I cannot...better get me a broker to invest on my behalf methinks.


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## Nyden (15 January 2008)

shaunnell said:


> Well please hurry up and sell already so the rest of us can get the 10% gain...
> 
> ZFX is by far the worst performer in my portfolio but my ego will not allow me to sell.  I wish I could separate emotion from my trading but I cannot...better get me a broker to invest on my behalf methinks.




It's not my ego that keeps me holding, it's my fundamental belief that Zinifex has a strong future.

I've cooled down a bit now  The way I see it; surely it can't fall too much more! I'll give it a few more weeks, & will decide around earnings report season.

May the market gods be merciful


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## ozrob (15 January 2008)

Nyden said:


> It's not my ego that keeps me holding, it's my fundamental belief that Zinifex has a strong future.




I'm in the same boat as you, and just a little worried about how far of this strong future may be. I'm also hoping the SP does not collapse again after the next dividend which I think is paid at the end of March.


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## DionM (15 January 2008)

Nyden said:


> The way I see it; surely it can't fall too much more!




Heh.  I remember holding on so bravely to my analysis of support around $14!  Pfft to that it seems ... fallen well below that and stayed down. 

I'm still not sure what to do with ZFX. I too beleive that fundamentally it is a good company, but boy the SP has taken a beating - it was once one of my best stocks - good SP gain, good divvy returns, a great long term hold.

Now it's languishing at the bottom (along with IAG, SUN and BBP - my stocks that have taken the biggest beating lately).

But I did buy for the long term, and long term I am sure ZFX will deliver.


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## porkpie324 (15 January 2008)

Yes that $14 support well and truly gone, not being smug but I luckily sold ZFX late 2006. But I do have some other loosers so plenty of us in the same boat.
  So I suggest some good blue's music, some Muddy Waters, John Lee Hooker, Eric Clapton.
  Thats my suggestion.porkpie


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## DionM (15 January 2008)

porkpie324 said:


> So I suggest some good blue's music, some Muddy Waters, John Lee Hooker, Eric Clapton.
> Thats my suggestion.porkpie




I'm just about at the point of "bottom-drawering" my whole portfolio.  The loan is paid automatically from my salary, the dividends go in there too.  Maybe in a few years I'll take a peek at it again .............................


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## justjohn (15 January 2008)

I'm also in the leaking ZFX boat as everyone else,surely this stock has a forward gear I'm starting to get sick of being stuck in reverse:horse:Giddy up or just stand up for christ saker you're going to be%#$@#$% dog meat


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## 3MT (15 January 2008)

I got rid of the final 50% of my holding recently (on a stop loss trigger - started buying at $15ish at a less informed mental stage).

Until then I was adamant that Zinifex had strong fundamentals, great management and a bright future with little risk and that holding on was the prudent thing. Now that I no longer hold it, I'm beginning to see that there are better investment opportunities elsewhere even at current prices ... yes, I realise I'm an emotional trader and I don't get true perspective on a stock when I own it. (could explain why AGM shareholders are so adamant that their stock is worth more than $1 to a predator - good luck to them)

With Zini, if its mine life is coming to an end shortly, who cares how much cash it has. Its going to have to use the cash to buy miners/producers at  huge risky premiums anyway (AGM at 1.20? that's at least how much it needs to pay) and then there is integration risks with processes, logistics, morale, unreport issues etc.

I might return at $10 for a trade based on broader market momentum, but it won't be a long term stock specific investment decision.

Of course making a significant Zinc or Lead discovery could change everything.


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## roland (15 January 2008)

Good luck with your decision 3MT, sounds like you have made an informed choice based on your trading style and expectations.

If it were not for a healthy dividend yield, I would probably do the same. Until Zinc prices pick up, irrespective of LME levels, the only thing going to pull Zinifex out of the mud would be increased profit forecasts, and that won't probably happen unless ZFX succeed in 
- a resource purchase (so long as they don't pay too much)
- a resource increase (maybe with Drake?)
- a takeover bid from a large predator (on the cards with a low SP and heaps of $$'s in the bank)

In my mind, things that will hurt Zinifex further:
- not successful with a new resource buy
- paying too much for said resource
- no new discoveries
- a lower than expected dividend yield

I haven't crunched any numbers myself, but Aegis have repriced the 12 month SP to be around $14.50. I would expect any SP price below $11 would be a good buy.

Putting emotional ties aside - there are certainly better prospects out there. Unfortunately I (like others) have emotions playing with my head, so I'll stick around.

I suspect the next dividend payment will trash the stock again so personally I will hold, possibly buy a little on dips, maybe kill off my higher SP parcels to bring down my tax exposure and prepare for a dump at ex div.

It's easy to to get swayed with all the negative talk with ZFX or any stock, but it really isn't the worst stock around, fundamentals are still good (not as good as last year) and you know what .... it's one hell of a challenge, worst case is that you'll have to sit it out and collect some pretty good damn dividends, 100% franked to boot.

Go ZFX!


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## SGB (15 January 2008)

"QUOTE"=Nyden;244710
Wow. Does this stock even have a bottom? :

Where does T/A see ZFX heading?UNQUOTE"


Update from post #1994

Support levels   $9.55 and $8.00


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## Nyden (15 January 2008)

roland said:


> worst case is that you'll have to sit it out and collect some pretty good damn dividends, 100% franked to boot.




Worst case scenario is them trimming down these large dividends at these prices, a major fall, no dividends - *that* would be worst case scenario 


& thank you SGB


----------



## roland (15 January 2008)

Nyden said:


> Worst case scenario is them trimming down these large dividends at these prices, a major fall, no dividends - *that* would be worst case scenario
> 
> 
> & thank you SGB




Nyden, honestly - if you are so unhappy with holding Zinifex, then why don't you just ditch out? No one likes watching their hard earned investments going backwards. In fact I've lost my entire years profits disappear in 3 months - and Zinifex is not all of my worries.

Personally, if I am unhappy with an investment I get out - it's sort of pointless whinging about it.

Sorry Nyden to be a little defensive just now, but hell, there are other holders beside you and I that feel totally screwed over. How about a few positive words of investment advice from someone who obviously is quite learned and knowledgeable as your self.

This is a just a little dip in the long climb up. Get with the program!


----------



## Nyden (15 January 2008)

roland said:


> Nyden, honestly - if you are so unhappy with holding Zinifex, then why don't you just ditch out? No one likes watching their hard earned investments going backwards. In fact I've lost my entire years profits disappear in 3 months - and Zinifex is not all of my worries.
> 
> Personally, if I am unhappy with an investment I get out - it's sort of pointless whinging about it.
> 
> ...





Oh, I'm not emotional or anything like that Roland. I am confident in the long term potential here, it's just hard to stay positive is all! :

I wasn't making an arrogant 'whinge' there, I was merely stating that as such worst case scenario *could* happen. There's a new CEO starting soon, we don't know what his long-term plans are, whether he feels the Dividends are too high, and of course what the current Zinc prices will do to profits.

I just thought it was silly to state that the absolute *worst case* scenario was sitting back & enjoying consistent & high dividends.

All I'm stating is that there is a lot of risk in this stock, & just to tread carefully. I see a lot of people buying in for these 'guaranteed' fantastic dividends, & I'm just making sure people realise that they might not always be there.

And it's also unfortunate that the short-term prospects don't seem to be all that great, T/A says we're due for possibly more falls, market sentiment is terrible, & it's just very difficult to keep a smile on this one! 


Alright, positives...ummm, let's see! To reiterate some facts from pages back, Zinifex have a lot of excess cash, a large % of their market cap actually. Desires to diversify, good buying opportunities in an irrational market, no debt (or rather, very little), increased production this year, rather high profit forecasts for this year, & as well as rather high forecast dividends.

Unfortunately the mood in the markets is absolutely terrible at the moment, and it does rub off on you after a while despite how positive you are.


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## roland (15 January 2008)

Nyden said:


> Oh, I'm not emotional or anything like that Roland. I am confident in the long term potential here, it's just hard to stay positive is all! :
> 
> I wasn't making an arrogant 'whinge' there, I was merely stating that as such worst case scenario *could* happen. There's a new CEO starting soon, we don't know what his long-term plans are, whether he feels the Dividends are too high, and of course what the current Zinc prices will do to profits.
> 
> ...




Actually I didn't say worst case is-  anything about: 'guaranteed' fantastic dividends

I did say: you'll have to sit it out and collect some pretty good damn dividends, 100% franked to boot

It's an interesting call to say that the market is irrational, I suppose, that if the market sector that we are interested in doesn't go the way we want it to, then from our perspective it would seem irrational.

I would suspect that if we think the market is acting irrationally, then we are missing some vital information that would give us some understanding on why this is happening.

I truely believe that there are more rational forces rather than irrational forces that drive the market. Irrational traders/investors are doomed for failure and over time would be less of an influence (if any, of any consequence in the first place)


----------



## roland (16 January 2008)

Hey Nyden, what are the odds on hitting $10.00 today? Zinc down another 4% - the worst of all the metals. I'll probably grab a few at $10, if we are going to sit this downturn out - may as well play it as best we can.


----------



## Nyden (16 January 2008)

roland said:


> Hey Nyden, what are the odds on hitting $10.00 today? Zinc down another 4% - the worst of all the metals. I'll probably grab a few at $10, if we are going to sit this downturn out - may as well play it as best we can.




Oh, we'll get slaughtered alright. Spot base-metal price doesn't always reflect a major price change; but the hammering over in the US most certainly will. Unfortunately 

Heh, I know you didn't mention the  'guaranteed' dividends, but that just seems to be the view of many people topping up on stock here.

I may reshuffle a little of my position today; I know it's foolish to sell off into a dive, but in truth - I can't see tomorrow being any better for ZFX. AGM will most likely announce their _formal_ refusal of the offer. I probably won't exit my entire position; just some of it! To buy something else with


----------



## roland (16 January 2008)

Nyden said:


> Oh, we'll get slaughtered alright. Spot base-metal price doesn't always reflect a major price change; but the hammering over in the US most certainly will. Unfortunately
> 
> Heh, I know you didn't mention the  'guaranteed' dividends, but that just seems to be the view of many people topping up on stock here.
> 
> I may reshuffle a little of my position today; I know it's foolish to sell off into a dive, but in truth - I can't see tomorrow being any better for ZFX. AGM will most likely announce their _formal_ refusal of the offer. I probably won't exit my entire position; just some of it! To buy something else with




Yeah, I dumped some BNB yesterday - just as well, down another $1 this morning. I'll be looking at improving the position of some of my tiddlers - like BBP, BBW, ADY etc. Have a good day


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## Nyden (16 January 2008)

roland said:


> Yeah, I dumped some BNB yesterday - just as well, down another $1 this morning. I'll be looking at improving the position of some of my tiddlers - like BBP, BBW, ADY etc. Have a good day





Well you guys are in luck! I sold out of Zinifex, watch it pull off a 5% gain now  I am definitely going to buy back in, just not yet!

Get ready for the takeover offer now 

Well, at least now that I no longer hold my emotion won't cloud my judgement, & I can try to be more positive for you guys :

Even though I sold out, I sincerely hope for all other holders it has a stellar run


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## justjohn (16 January 2008)

Nyden said:


> Well you guys are in luck! I sold out of Zinifex, watch it pull off a 5% gain now  I am definitely going to buy back in, just not yet!
> 
> Get ready for the takeover offer now
> 
> ...




By you selling out of ZFX does this mean we need a new CEONyden dont leave us in our hour ,day ,week, month of need


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## Nyden (16 January 2008)

justjohn said:


> By you selling out of ZFX does this mean we need a new CEONyden dont leave us in our hour ,day ,week, month of need




:
I'll be back! If the price hits about $8 I'll buy back in 
Until then, best of luck 

Hmm, it's going back down again. I honestly thought it would climb back up to a 2% loss today, there seemed to be a fair bit of buying after 10:30. Back to 4.5 now.

Still, it's holding it's own over $10, that's something to smile about


----------



## cordelia (17 January 2008)

Nyden said:


> :
> I'll be back! If the price hits about $8 I'll buy back in
> Until then, best of luck
> 
> ...




u r not alone. i also sold zfx today. if it goes lower i will buy back in at some point. if the price rises and charts, fundamentals look good i will buy back in as well. just want to take a step back and consolidate.


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## DionM (17 January 2008)

Well I'm still holding, for better or worse.

At this point in time I'm pretty much over looking at the markets (bottom-drawered my whole portfolio), so I don't want the hassle of looking and waiting for a re-entry point ... so I'll keep holding.


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## sideshowbob (17 January 2008)

If you know the market is slipping...

why do people keep topping up...

why not sell now and wait for signs of a bottom.

like someone said... it clears the mind and allows you to make the next decision without emotion. Topping up is very effective... if its done for a good  reason. I cant see what the reason can be right now... other than the stocks are looking cheaper than they did 3 months ago. 
With a new director coming in soon... at the very best how much of a rebound will you see with current sentiment? 

I really think that shorter term investors should seriously assess whether this is a "correction" we are seeing or a downward spiral. 

Whilst topping up was a good strategy last year... I think we are in a completely different situation now.


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## Nyden (17 January 2008)

sideshowbob said:


> If you know the market is slipping...
> 
> why do people keep topping up...
> 
> ...




I tend to agree. Buying more just for the sake that it's cheaper than it was in this market seems rather risky. One should be minimizing their risk in uncertain times, not increasing it 

I guess though if you're *so* convinced fundamentally though, it could be excused! Still, I don't make a habit of topping up in *stocks* that are in an individual free fall. If it's the market itself, then fine - but ZFX has been falling for a long time, not just these last few weeks.

Today's loss seemed very minimal, if the US markets held up nicely we could see a fair rebound tomorrow. Damn, sold out at the bottom apparently! Go figure : I used some of the funds to top up on OXR as well, ugh, already sitting on a heavy loss :

Do you guys that top-up have a plan? For instances, hold until a certain low? Will you still be holding if it goes to much lower prices? My plan personally, is to wait until next week - earnings report season for my 2 main stocks, if all is well, keep holding for divies. If not, sell out & stick to cash for a while 

Disclaimer; This does not constitute as any form of advice.


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## legs (17 January 2008)

Nyden said:


> I tend to agree. Buying more just for the sake that it's cheaper than it was in this market seems rather risky. One should be minimizing their risk in uncertain times, not increasing it
> 
> I guess though if you're *so* convinced fundamentally though, it could be excused! Still, I don't make a habit of topping up in *stocks* that are in an individual free fall. If it's the market itself, then fine - but ZFX has been falling for a long time, not just these last few weeks.
> 
> ...




The sharemarket has now had approximately a 15% correction from its recent highs around the 6800 mark. The major bank horror stories in the US are now out in the open and the relevant banks have applied appropriate bandages to their capital bases. Further wounded warriors will appear.

My view is we have seen the worst of this correction and we will now consolidate ahead of a sharp rally. Expectations for a US Fed Reserve rate cut at the end of January are now building from a 50 basis point cut to a 75 basis point cut.

This rally could well mark the low point of this correction in the markets, which could settle down into a trading range for some months until the markets sense better times ahead.


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## legs (17 January 2008)

Nyden said:


> I tend to agree. Buying more just for the sake that it's cheaper than it was in this market seems rather risky. One should be minimizing their risk in uncertain times, not increasing it
> 
> I guess though if you're *so* convinced fundamentally though, it could be excused! Still, I don't make a habit of topping up in *stocks* that are in an individual free fall. If it's the market itself, then fine - but ZFX has been falling for a long time, not just these last few weeks.
> 
> ...




As always I remind that market timing is difficult and a quality portfolio well-bought, without debt and for the long term is by far the best strategy. Purchasing in times like these enables better value to be acquired.


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## DionM (17 January 2008)

sideshowbob said:


> If you know the market is slipping...
> 
> why do people keep topping up...
> 
> ...




Topping up for a trade is probably the wrong strategy, I agree.

However for long term holders like myself, I guess I figure it's a good price for what was / is a sound stock.  My only nervousness now is dividend stability, though that shouldn't be affected by market sentiment, but by company performance, and that is still going fine?

Myself, as I alluded to ... I don't have the skill/time to look for re-entry points.  Knowing my luck I'd miss the bottom and re-enter at around the same price I sold anyway if a rally happens.  So I guess I'll hold and ride it out, it was always a long term investment anyway (5-10 years).  

If I top up, it'll only be after some sustained sideways or upwards movement, and I'm wary given how long ZFX flirted at around $12 before heading lower.


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## DowJones (17 January 2008)

I am tempted to get some ZFX at <$10... who would have thought a stock could give 12% dividend! Better than ING Direct account.

I too am scared that the dividend will be cut in light of the share price and with the current market sentiment, if it were to happen, the fall could be magnified.

On the flip side, the stock is cheap enough, and ZFX could be a takeover target at this level.


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## The Mint Man (17 January 2008)

DowJones said:


> I am tempted to get some ZFX at <$10... who would have thought a stock could give 12% dividend! Better than ING Direct account.



If your excited about that you should check out RAT, I worked it (the yield) out the other day to be 17%. Might even be a little more today.

I dont hold.

Cheers


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## porkpie324 (17 January 2008)

We are now in the third week of below average volume for ZFX. So the question is when will this downtrend stop. ZFX had 3 attepmts at rallying on well above average volume, 15/11, 30/11 & 21/12 all were shot lived and failed, so ZFX is going to be very hard to pick the bottom. Better to wait until a longer rally and buy on the pullback if your game enough to try, porkpie


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## cordelia (17 January 2008)

porkpie324 said:


> We are now in the third week of below average volume for ZFX. So the question is when will this downtrend stop. ZFX had 3 attepmts at rallying on well above average volume, 15/11, 30/11 & 21/12 all were shot lived and failed, so ZFX is going to be very hard to pick the bottom. Better to wait until a longer rally and buy on the pullback if your game enough to try, porkpie




I sold zfx yesterday at a loss...and i didn't do it lightly. I have been researching technical analysis and if I had done so earlier I would have sold out a lot earlier. It stopped me panicking and buying back in with not just zfx  but a lot of others too ( don't talk about pem) and guess what they have continued their slide.

Fundamentally all stocks are being influenced by the DJIA and the XAO. Not to mention consumer confidence. Most people read the news and follow the general sentiment which, at the moment, is extremely cautious and i would say is gaining momentum. There will have to be some groundbreaking positive news before things head north. In every paper today and on every news channel there is talk of stock market losses. It has to have an effect on investment decision making.

At some point prices will become ridiculous cheap and that will be the time to buy again. (my opinion)  

Do some research. I felt bad yesterday selling at a loss but I have confidence the share prices of most stocks will drop further and therefore I have actually made some money by not losing more. If I buy back in at a significantly lower price then its much the same as selling short. If I was still hanging onto those stocks I would have to wait until the price hit rock bottom before I would even begin to make back any of my capital.

Remember too that there have been buyers on the way down and at some point they are going to take a profit...way before the price gets anywhere near your entry point if you bought near the top.


----------



## Ken (17 January 2008)

Heres something to think about people....


JUST A THOUGHT.

The papers write because they get paid to.. when the market is heading north everything is rosey, when its heading south, the world is coming to its knees.

From what I can see Australia has just had record low unemployment. Now from my understanding that means we are flying.

From a US point of view their unemployment levels are crazy low as well. 

The problem all started with HOUSING and credit. 

My theory is that this is going to be the GREAT OPPORTUNITY for the 2009, and and 2010 extended run of the bull market. Basically my view is also that this period now, will be the launching pad before the All ords go for 10,000

This platform will be volatile, shakey, and it will have to be. It cant be smooth sailing. 

WHAT IS GOING TO CHANGE THE MARKET IN THE SHORT TERM.

PRETTY SIMPLE - takeover talks. What better time to be making takeover talks when companies share prices are on the slide. It just makes perfect sense to be buying the best companies when prices fall.

ZFX in my opinion is one of them.

Trends are there to be broken in my opinion.

The man with the most shares wins no the greatest percentage gains in 3 days.


----------



## sideshowbob (18 January 2008)

yes 2009 and 2010 might see good times... 

but why not get out for 2008... or at least the first half of 2008.

Zfx does not show any hint of climbing. 
I have been following Zfx for 2 years now. I sold at $16.5 
Simply put I found... Zfx always fell the hardest and always recovered the least. 

IMO Its not the stock to have money in ... if and when a rebound\rally comes.  

Its hard to see a bottom with ZFX atm....

KEN

Yes unemployment is low... 

but what about rising interest rates.. 
if we look at the basics of share market cycles...
we have all the signs of a market going into a bear cycle. All the signs are there.
Meanwhile American economy is halted.
The only saving grace is China, India... that are booming... and the material sector has profited.
In fact much of the saving grace last year came from materials like BHP and RIO etc which carried the ALL ORDS.
Now have we forgotten the forecast by China itself. "Their growth must slow down"... remember the corrections?
Imagine if China comes in with another one of their corrections right about now?


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## campag (18 January 2008)

cordelia said:


> In every paper today and on every news channel there is talk of stock market losses.




Usualy a good indicator to get back into the market (IMHO). Interest rates may be going up in oz but they are going to get ridiculously low in the US and the UK to stimulate the housing market and economy(IMO)

I've made mistakes with ZFX, kept getting stopped out and bought right back in. Did this three times before I learnt my lesson. I'm out now and glad, as I would now be sitting on a massive loss. I'll probably leave ZFX well alone as there are better opportunities in the current market. Won't dip my feet in just yet though, although I had a dabble with PDN but will probably get stopped out of that fairly soon, I'm much too impatient.


----------



## DionM (18 January 2008)

Wow, into the 9s.  I never thought it would go that low.

I tip my hat to those of you who had the courage to sell out in the 10s or higher.  I perhaps should have bailed the minute it breached the $14 support line.  But I somewhat blindly stuck at it, though my judgement was clouded a little by thinking it was only a temporary thing while the Allegiance thing ran it's course.  

I think now my only hope is just to sit on it for the 5-10 years I was planning to, and see what happens.  Certainly when it gets back up to the levels I paid for it, I will give serious consideration whether I sell then or not.


----------



## PBH (18 January 2008)

Well, I'm in at $9.42.

Accuse me of trying to catch a falling knife if you must, but I just can't ignore the value of this company at these prices anymore. Also I'm buying with the longer term in mind (3-4 years), so I'm feeling quite comfortable about things.

Clearly still some downside potential for ZFX, so I've left some $$ in the bank as a precaution. If it goes down to $8.50, I'll buy some more.

As for the AGM offer; things aren't looking too good at the moment, especially given the dismal uptake so far. I can't wait to see what the next move will be.....


----------



## 3MT (18 January 2008)

wow, what a ride. look fear in the eye and tell her that Zini has bottomed.....for now. 

Though too risky to have as a staple stock for the superfund (living off acquisition outcomes and exploration results), the fact that it has almost half its market cap as interest bearing cash can't be ignored in this environment.

what i've learnt is you must have an exit strategy with every purchase.
Too many traders become long term investors by accident because they don't have an exit strategy.

I hate taking losses , but I must say the reluctantly imposed stop losses have saved me alot money

I've taken a trading position today (with a stop loss of course). 

Bring on the credit crunch, we still have 2.2B cash in the bank left


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## roland (18 January 2008)

3MT said:


> wow, what a ride. look fear in the eye and tell her that Zini has bottomed.....for now.
> 
> Though too risky to have as a staple stock for the superfund (living off acquisition outcomes and exploration results), the fact that it has almost half its market cap as interest bearing cash can't be ignored in this environment.
> 
> ...




everything you say makes sense.

exiting, on an exit strategy, a stop loss, an emotion means we have made a loss, and we don't like taking losses. Some of us stubborn bastards just cannot be told and more often than not we have an unhappy face on all our posts

there is always that slim chance that this baby will just turn on it's heels and skyrocket - then we can say "told you so"

us stubborn bastards don't rely on maths when factoring in a 10% drop is not corrected by a 10% rise - pity that simple fact - who invented percentages anyway?

us stubborn bastards get lulled into loving our falling stocks and think they will love us back with some extra hard earned $$$'s - shall we call them blood sweat and tears?

us stubborn bastards feel we have an important part to play in the success of our selected companies - funny how we know all about them, they know nothing about us - what truely great friends our  selected companies are ...


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## Nyden (18 January 2008)

roland said:


> everything you say makes sense.
> 
> exiting, on an exit strategy, a stop loss, an emotion means we have made a loss, and we don't like taking losses. Some of us stubborn bastards just cannot be told and more often than not we have an unhappy face on all our posts
> 
> ...




Yeah, even the simplistic moving averages told me the upward trend was over at I believe $16, I stubbornly held  Glad I managed to get out at least at something above 10! Just above 10 :


----------



## BJP (18 January 2008)

Hi Guy`s
Bring on the credit crunch, we still have 2.2B cash in the bank left .

You are going to need to use a lot more of that 2.2B cash that you have in the bank if you want AGM


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## 3MT (18 January 2008)

an AGM shareholder amongst us? Welcome to the family. 

Don't be so greedy over a few cents in case you live to regret it.


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## DionM (19 January 2008)

3MT said:


> an AGM shareholder amongst us? Welcome to the family.
> 
> Don't be so greedy over a few cents in case you live to regret it.




I'm torn.  I have both AGM and ZFX.

Sadly, far far far more ZFX than AGM though, so they're not balancing each other at all.


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## BJP (19 January 2008)

We`re not part of the family yet,: as I said they need to dig a lot deeper into that 2.2b bank acc.
 Not being greedy, just want a fair and reasonable price


----------



## Rafa (21 January 2008)

BJP said:


> Hi Guy`s
> Bring on the credit crunch, we still have 2.2B cash in the bank left .
> 
> You are going to need to use a lot more of that 2.2B cash that you have in the bank if you want AGM




Very true...
2.2 billion cash... 

what value is that as companies go to the wall trying to raise capital to finance their projects...


----------



## Freeballinginawetsuit (21 January 2008)

BJP said:


> We`re not part of the family yet,: as I said they need to dig a lot deeper into that 2.2b bank acc.
> Not being greedy, just want a fair and reasonable price






, the price ZFX have offered for AGM is at a premium to its peers. 

Moreover its unlikely another AGM suitor would be in the wings that share the same locality synergies and liquidity ability to drillout/define beyond AGM's currently defined resources.

IMO ZFX should sweat out there bid and let it lapse if necessary. I'm sure longer term holders of ZFX would agree there is little chance of there gains in ZFX returning to the market mean. 
ZFX has plenty on its plate ATM from a production/exploration perspective and should just chug along. Blind freedy management could keep holders happy by interest bearing returns on 2.2B or instigating another share buy back at current levels.

I feel sorry for the leveraged crew who speculated on ZFX recently, painful!.


----------



## Stan 101 (21 January 2008)

ZFX mentioned last year that if they cannot aquire new business with their cash surplus, it will be used for capital return... I say bring it on. I'd like a few dollars back on my zfx shares.

It was good to see zfx held its own today and ended up mildly in the black. 1 of only 3 shares on my watchlist that did...There was a bit of volume, too..

Any thoughts on this?


----------



## Freeballinginawetsuit (21 January 2008)

Stan 101 said:


> ZFX mentioned last year that if they cannot aquire new business with their cash surplus, it will be used for capital return... I say bring it on. I'd like a few dollars back on my zfx shares.
> 
> It was good to see zfx held its own today and ended up mildly in the black. 1 of only 3 shares on my watchlist that did...There was a bit of volume, too..
> 
> Any thoughts on this?





I'd say that over the past couple of years there has been times/opportunities to trade a bit of speculation/froth in there SP. 

Even from a longer term perspective (2 plus years) those holding ZFX are sitting on above market returns. 

ZFX is a different beast since those times though and as they currently sit fundamentally, IMO I wouldn't be selling them in the $9.00 dollar range, I'd be buying them!.

I don't know of a company in the ASX with a MC 4.5B sitting on 2.2B cash, recent aquisitions and the ability to sustain realistic profits even with the complete speculation removed from Zn prices.

Sure there mine life is an issue, but realistically these guys have enough targets/exploration potetial to drill out and define. I reckon there well placed to ride out any short term movements in the market and self fund future growth.


----------



## 3MT (21 January 2008)

Good to see Zini holding its support level today.

Based on volume, I think the bigs boys are agreeing that $9.5 is standout value.

Who reckons the best play ZFX could make is to keep its cash in a raboplus high interest account and wait for these blue sky miners to start running into inevitable production delays/problems, falling metal prices and cashflow crunch and then use the funds to bail them out(takeover). We could effectively get AGM and others for a fraction of the price. At this rate MCR, SMY and WSA are looking the better options. 

In the meantime return some capital from future profits to long and short suffering shareholders.


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## Ken (21 January 2008)

I have 750 shares.

But I have decided to sit tight now.

The time will come when money will made on ZFX.


But right now.

Why bother with the stress of sticking out a down trend that could last 6 months?


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## Fed23 (22 January 2008)

Why doesnt ZFX just pull the plug on AGM offer.

AGM is only been help up in SP becasue ZFX offer. If ZFX pulls out AGM will just have a free fall to bottom, then management can kick themselves for saying we dont think ZFX offer was high enough.


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## adobee (22 January 2008)

Fed23 said:


> Why doesnt ZFX just pull the plug on AGM offer.
> 
> AGM is only been help up in SP becasue ZFX offer. If ZFX pulls out AGM will just have a free fall to bottom, then management can kick themselves for saying we dont think ZFX offer was high enough.




Damb straight .. that kills me to see them still sitting above a $1 pull the plug today and what AGM tumble to 16c then make a new offer see what they think then..


----------



## Kimosabi (22 January 2008)

Well I bought some ZFX at $8.55 today.  Me thinks this is a bargain, especially if they continue with their generous dividend program...


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## roland (22 January 2008)

I did $0.02 better with Zinifex -  $8.53, got a horrible sneaky feeling it may go below $8.20 today


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## Nyden (22 January 2008)

roland said:


> I did $0.02 better with Zinifex -  $8.53, got a horrible sneaky feeling it may go below $8.20 today




If the dow plummets tonight, what will happen tomorrow? 
I'll re-buy in if the P/E ratio hits 2!


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## porkpie324 (22 January 2008)

Anyone know how many ZFX shares on issue, that pile of cash there sitting on must be worth quite a bit on a per share basis. porkpie


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## Nyden (22 January 2008)

porkpie324 said:


> Anyone know how many ZFX shares on issue, that pile of cash there sitting on must be worth quite a bit on a per share basis. porkpie




I think I remember from doing rough numbers a while back...was worth $2-something per share, or something like that :


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## porkpie324 (22 January 2008)

Thanks 'Nyden', had a quick look on ZFX website, according to the Oct 07 annual report there are 486,911,000 shares on issue, not sure if any more issued since then. With I think 2.2 Bl in cash, that makes each share has a cash value of about $4.50. If anyone can give a more accurate or updated value please correct me. So that means going by todays share price the operation is worth about $4.00 per share, make up your own mind on that figure.porkpie


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## treefrog (22 January 2008)

porkpie324 said:


> Thanks 'Nyden', had a quick look on ZFX website, according to the Oct 07 annual report there are 486,911,000 shares on issue, not sure if any more issued since then. With I think 2.2 Bl in cash, that makes each share has a cash value of about $4.50. If anyone can give a more accurate or updated value please correct me. So that means going by todays share price the operation is worth about $4.00 per share, make up your own mind on that figure.porkpie




Price to Book Ratio

The ratio of the current price per share divided by book value per share. The book value measures the value of the shareholders ownership in the company, as measured by the last full year balance sheet. 

The price to book ratio is usually greater than one as the market value will usually exceed the balance sheet value attributed to the assets of the company. This is because assets are generally recorded at their original cost, less any accumulated depreciation. The market, on the other hand, is concerned with the cash-generating ability of the companys assets rather than its historical cost. If an asset can generate returns in excess of its cost of capital, then a premium will be paid for the asset. This premium is the price to book ratio.

ZFX P/B ratio about 1.5 today so getting into very good value territory BUTttttttttt ......... momentum is still down


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## Ken (22 January 2008)

I quit.

I am turning the computer off until next year 2009.

Whatever happens happens.


Have had enough.

CRAP


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## adobee (22 January 2008)

porkpie324 said:


> Thanks 'Nyden', had a quick look on ZFX website, according to the Oct 07 annual report there are 486,911,000 shares on issue, not sure if any more issued since then. With I think 2.2 Bl in cash, that makes each share has a cash value of about $4.50. If anyone can give a more accurate or updated value please correct me. So that means going by todays share price the operation is worth about $4.00 per share, make up your own mind on that figure.porkpie




Do they not have any long term debt that offsets any of that cash or is all debt paid off ????????????????


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## chops_a_must (22 January 2008)

Ken said:


> I quit.
> 
> I am turning the computer off until next year 2009.
> 
> ...




Call in Wayne. We have our mechanical entry system signal!

Bottom selling posts almost out and about en masse...


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## Nyden (22 January 2008)

chops_a_must said:


> Call in Wayne. We have our mechanical entry system signal!
> 
> Bottom selling posts almost out and about en masse...




No, confirmation is needed chops. Haven't seen the post of "never again..." yet :

Today's buyers will be selling tomorrow!


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## Gundini (22 January 2008)

If ZFX can't settle around $8, where is it going to settle? Surely, it can't hold $8 given the negitivity on the market.... It has to go to $7 or less you would think...

Damn struggling is an understatement!


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## numbercruncher (22 January 2008)

> 204 buyers for 487,909 units  669 sellers for 1,610,792 units





This is pretty much the story across the whole asx , I can feel my horns starting to sprout in coming days


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## porkpie324 (22 January 2008)

I had'nt taken into account the ROE so thanks treefrog, as for dept not sure on that, I take it that my cash value per share was fairly accurate (no ones corrected me)porkpie


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## treefrog (22 January 2008)

porkpie324 said:


> I had'nt taken into account the ROE so thanks treefrog, as for dept not sure on that, I take it that my cash value per share was fairly accurate (no ones corrected me)porkpie




Cash Assets

Represents cash on hand, plus short-term deposits, that can be readily converted into cash.

ZFX cash assets 06/06 $602m
ZFX cash assets 06/07 $228m

seems a few months old but that is all I have directly to hand


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## ROE (22 January 2008)

ZFX facing a serious issue on the life of its mine
if it cant find anything new it face decline earning so prospect doesn't look too great.


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## Stan 101 (22 January 2008)

ROE, can you clarify "serious issue", please...
Several years left in Century is hardly  the end of the world. That leaves plenty of time to aquire or otherwise take up new veins



Cheers,


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## cordelia (22 January 2008)

Gundini said:


> If ZFX can't settle around $8, where is it going to settle? Surely, it can't hold $8 given the negitivity on the market.... It has to go to $7 or less you would think...
> 
> Damn struggling is an understatement!




i read on one of those stock recommendation websites (can't remember where) that the expectation for ZFX was $7.50. I bought ZFX based on fundamentals but after reading that i looked at the charts and sold at $10.50. It was hard to do but I am glad now. It only has to go back up to where I sold to break even if I buy back in. That's if it ever goes there.....


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## Nyden (23 January 2008)

Why still the trading halt? Knowing my luck, you lucky buggers'll get a takeover offer! :

Doesn't look like you guys are getting a massive rally today though, good ol' ZFX living upto it's rep.


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## roland (23 January 2008)

Looks like Zinifex will do a nice bounce. Pre open market depth is the best I've seen for ages.

The AGM offer looks to be more attractive to AGM holders now. At least they know exactly what they'll get.

Glad I picked up some more ZFX yesterday. Good luck ZFX holders.


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## Nicks (23 January 2008)

Any idea why ZFX isnt trading this morning?? no news of trading halt. Missing out on the big market gains!!


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## roland (23 January 2008)

Nicks said:


> Any idea why ZFX isnt trading this morning?? no news of trading halt. Missing out on the big market gains!!




23 January 2008
Zinifex’s Offer for Allegiance simplified
Zinifex Limited (ASX: ZFX.AX) (“Zinifex”) today announced it will simplify
the takeover offer by its subsidiary Zinifex Australia Limited (“Zinifex”) for
all of the issued ordinary shares of Allegiance Mining NL (ASX: AGM.AX)
(“Allegiance”).
Zinifex will now offer $1.00 cash per share for all Allegiance shares,
irrespective of whether it acquires a relevant interest in 30% of shares or
receives a directors’ recommendation. As the offer is unconditional,
accepting shareholders will be paid within 5 business days of the receipt
of a valid acceptance.
In addition Zinifex reserves the right to stand in the market to acquire
Allegiance shares at prices up to and including the offer price.
Zinifex’s Chief Executive Officer (elect) Andrew Michelmore said “Zinifex
notes the current market turmoil, which has accelerated the decline in
values of many peer mid-sized ASX-listed nickel companies. We made
our intention clear when we proposed to offer up to $1.00 cash per
Allegiance share and Zinifex stands by that intention.
“At this time, we felt individual shareholders would be supportive of a
simplified offer structure and enhanced liquidity in the market such that
they can avail themselves of a real 41% premium,” he said.
For more information contact:
Martin McFarlane
Group Manager – Investor & Community Relations
Zinifex Limited
Direct telephone: +61 (3) 9288 0479
Mobile: +61 (0) 417 543 638
Email: martin.mcfarlane@zinifex.com


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## Nicks (23 January 2008)

Thanks but I fail to see how this answers my post. 
Anyone else want to offer something valuable other than the news released this morning pasted out of etrade or comsec?
Like I said no news of a trading halt.


----------



## Nicks (23 January 2008)

.... and there she goes. This was a most unusual situation with ZFX this morning. I'd love to hear from anyone whom knows exactly what happened and why it wasn't trading.


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## roland (23 January 2008)

Nicks said:


> Thanks but I fail to see how this answers my post.
> Anyone else want to offer something valuable other than the news released this morning pasted out of etrade or comsec?
> Like I said no news of a trading halt.




mmm, well this was the news release that put Zinifex in trading halt until 11.00am - sorry, I should have added this to the title


----------



## DionM (23 January 2008)

Nice timing by ZFX with the ann, but we're missing the rally (I doubt it'd go high enough for me recoup losses though).  

I was all set to sell my AGM shares today on-market, to take some capital and run.  The new offer gives me more certainty (and longer to stave off on the decision to sell my AGM shares).

Still, the profit from my AGM shares fades into comparison with the drop in value of my ZFX holdings.


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## roland (23 January 2008)

DionM said:


> Nice timing by ZFX with the ann, but we're missing the rally (I doubt it'd go high enough for me recoup losses though).
> 
> I was all set to sell my AGM shares today on-market, to take some capital and run.  The new offer gives me more certainty (and longer to stave off on the decision to sell my AGM shares).
> 
> Still, the profit from my AGM shares fades into comparison with the drop in value of my ZFX holdings.




DionM, what are your thoughts on where your AGM SP is likely to go if Zinifex is not successful and pulls out?


----------



## Nicks (23 January 2008)

roland said:


> mmm, well this was the news release that put Zinifex in trading halt until 11.00am - sorry, I should have added this to the title




Thanks, so where was the info about the trading halt until 11.00 am? I can't see it anywhere.


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## roland (23 January 2008)

Nicks said:


> Thanks, so where was the info about the trading halt until 11.00 am? I can't see it anywhere.




the announcment was pretty clear from the Protrade platform .. just here:

see attached,


----------



## DionM (23 January 2008)

roland said:


> DionM, what are your thoughts on where your AGM SP is likely to go if Zinifex is not successful and pulls out?




I really don't know.  I've seen various valuations of AGM at $2+ (based on fundamental analysis) ... however given the current market, we all know that fundamentals count for SFA these days.

As such, I suspect the SP will retreat.  No doubt long term AGM may be a $2+ company, but if I have an opp to sell at a premium then buy when it drops, I'll do that.

I'll probably sell - as late as I can either on market or to ZFX (offer closes 8.2.08) and if AGM drops, I'll rebuy into it.


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## roland (24 January 2008)

DionM said:


> I really don't know.  I've seen various valuations of AGM at $2+ (based on fundamental analysis) ... however given the current market, we all know that fundamentals count for SFA these days.
> 
> As such, I suspect the SP will retreat.  No doubt long term AGM may be a $2+ company, but if I have an opp to sell at a premium then buy when it drops, I'll do that.
> 
> I'll probably sell - as late as I can either on market or to ZFX (offer closes 8.2.08) and if AGM drops, I'll rebuy into it.




Well, Zinifex has basically said "this is your last chance AGM holders, take the money or watch your SP fall - along with the expected Nickel price."

I actually am liking this agressive stance from ZFX - makes me feel tough 

I suppose anyone buying AGM at over a $1 must be feeling a bit nervous.


----------



## DionM (24 January 2008)

roland said:


> Well, Zinifex has basically said "this is your last chance AGM holders, take the money or watch your SP fall - along with the expected Nickel price."
> 
> I actually am liking this agressive stance from ZFX - makes me feel tough
> 
> I suppose anyone buying AGM at over a $1 must be feeling a bit nervous.




I posted in the AGM thread, but I have suspicions that there may be a rival offer around for AGM; which has prompted the tough stance from ZFX (and upped their bid) and the vagueness by AGM.

I am still pondering.  I may sell to ZFX or sell on market in the days leading up the close of the offer if nothing eventuates; then if the SP drops for AGM I will buy back into AGM.

Great plan on paper, probably end up doing something different or the market will just confound me yet again!


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## roland (24 January 2008)

I haven't been following the AGM board. What are their guesses on the rival bidder? I would be thinking to myself how valid the rumour of the rival ... and maybe cashing out if sitting on a profit - especially if it was over ZFX's offer.

It's a pity for AGM that it wasn't a share offer - that may have made the bid a little more interesting


----------



## roland (24 January 2008)

Not sure what these 73 packets are on AGM, seems a little strange to me. What do you make of it Dion?


----------



## roland (24 January 2008)

Looks like an AGM response coming - just waiting to see what it says. This is fun - almost like watching a schoolyard brawl.


----------



## DionM (24 January 2008)

roland said:


> I haven't been following the AGM board. What are their guesses on the rival bidder? I would be thinking to myself how valid the rumour of the rival ... and maybe cashing out if sitting on a profit - especially if it was over ZFX's offer.




AGM haven't said anything yet about a rival bidder.



> It's a pity for AGM that it wasn't a share offer - that may have made the bid a little more interesting




Oh god the last thing I need is more ZFX shares :


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## DionM (24 January 2008)

roland said:


> Not sure what these 73 packets are on AGM, seems a little strange to me. What do you make of it Dion?




ZFX CEO left off about 6 zeros when placing an order in his Etrade account?   Usual market games, I'm sure ... I don't pay much attention to them (actually, I don't really understand them ...).


----------



## roland (24 January 2008)

LOL 

a few AGM holders going to jump ship at $1.04 on pre open. Also some idiot placeing and cancelling orders to make the AGM watchlist entry flash - hate that.


----------



## roland (24 January 2008)

Looks like a counter attack with an announcement regarding a resource upgrade - haven't read it yet, just going off the title of the announcement. Rally the Troops


----------



## nioka (24 January 2008)

roland said:


> Looks like a counter attack with an announcement regarding a resource upgrade - haven't read it yet, just going off the title of the announcement. Rally the Troops



What announcement are you referring to. The only one I have seen is one from Zinifex which is full of bluff and won't sway me. I have been asking why ZFX hasn't made a bid for SMY when their (SMY) market cap is less than AGM. Is it because they see the potential in AGM that AGM holders see and more potential than SMY.


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## roland (24 January 2008)

nioka said:


> What announcement are you referring to. The only one I have seen is one from Zinifex which is full of bluff and won't sway me. I have been asking why ZFX hasn't made a bid for SMY when their (SMY) market cap is less than AGM. Is it because they see the potential in AGM that AGM holders see and more potential than SMY.




I was referring to the latest AGM announcement (last 10 minutes). I am of the opinion it has been timed to follow up ZFX's announcement today. Also if you read it, it contains a little statement regarding the source of the data, which I felt is a little counter to ZFX's statement regarding things not being sourced properly.


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## nioka (24 January 2008)

roland said:


> I was referring to the latest AGM announcement (last 10 minutes). I am of the opinion it has been timed to follow up ZFX's announcement today. Also if you read it, it contains a little statement regarding the source of the data, which I felt is a little counter to ZFX's statement regarding things not being sourced properly.



 Found it .It has just come up for me. Good news for me as an AGM holder and supporter. Interesting times ahead and there will be plenty of posts to come on the ZFX/AGM saga.


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## Warren Buffet II (24 January 2008)

roland said:


> I was referring to the latest AGM announcement (last 10 minutes). I am of the opinion it has been timed to follow up ZFX's announcement today. Also if you read it, it contains a little statement regarding the source of the data, which I felt is a little counter to ZFX's statement regarding things not being sourced properly.




It is funny how ZFX is making AGM spit out as much private information as they can, making ZFX valuation of AGM easier 

AGM please keep showing more about you 

WBII


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## Redalert (24 January 2008)

Hi all, I'm a new member, love the forum.

I just want to know if anyone has read a report from the AGE?.

'Australian miner, Oxiana, has a positive outlook for the future. On 23 January2008, the company reported that it achieved its expected production for thefourth quarter of 2007. MD Owen Hegarty said that it was still examiningprospective acquisitions. He added that the weakening zinc market could presenta buying opportunity. Hegarty felt that the longer-term outlook was stronger, soOxiana may look at Zinifex again'

What do we think?. I'm definately hanging on to Zinifex in at least the short term.


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## roland (24 January 2008)

Warren Buffet II said:


> It is funny how ZFX is making AGM spit out as much private information as they can, making ZFX valuation of AGM easier
> 
> AGM please keep showing more about you
> 
> WBII




One would hope that the information provided is not exagerated, and in all honesty, I really wouldn't want our AGM friends disadvantaged in any way.

At least we are learning that the AGM prospective asset is looking as good as I am sure Zinifex already know.

Good luck to all AGM and ZFX holders for a profitable outcome.


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## roland (24 January 2008)

I've looked around at the financial areas of Comsec but cannot find what I am after. I am looking to see the 2 Billion Dollars that I have part ownership of. 

I suppose we are earning a pretty good penny just on interest. Gee I would be happy just looking after it for 12 months or so.


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## Nyden (24 January 2008)

roland said:


> I've looked around at the financial areas of Comsec but cannot find what I am after. I am looking to see the 2 Billion Dollars that I have part ownership of.
> 
> I suppose we are earning a pretty good penny just on interest. Gee I would be happy just looking after it for 12 months or so.




What exactly are you after mate? Perhaps I can help! 

Beautiful recovery from ZFX today, I must say. Am tempted to buy some.
I believe many traders now feel more confident that ZFX will refuse to overpay for AGM; which is obviously positive.

Very nice increase in lead production as well, as per I expected though. Good thing as well, lead is still relatively hot ... compared to a dwindling zinc price 

But, for now I'm sticking with high interest savings, & an index stock 
Even in a massive crash, an Index stock doesn't get beat as harshly as many stocks individually will


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## roland (24 January 2008)

Nyden said:


> What exactly are you after mate? Perhaps I can help!
> 
> Beautiful recovery from ZFX today, I must say. Am tempted to buy some.
> I believe many traders now feel more confident that ZFX will refuse to overpay for AGM; which is obviously positive.
> ...




Hey Nyden, I just need a login and password for their bank account.

Just kidding....

Did you ever see a balance sheet showing the cash from Nyrstar?

At current SP levels, dividend return is around 14%, so I have decided to stick to ZFX for as long as dividend return stays at $1.40 p/a or thereabouts. Zinifex will either succede on buying a resource or will end up being a resourse take over from somewhere else. So I am happy. I've got holdings now at $8.53 and will work at dollar averaging for the rest.

I like this position, not caring whether it goes up or down.


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## roland (25 January 2008)

Looks like a good start for the day. Zinifex should pick up a couple of points. Pre open is up 3% with good depth - plenty of buyers.

Zinc up, lead up on LME, US up overnight - all in all a good day should be had.

From Metals Report via Kitco:

ZINC SUPPORT: $2235 / RESISTANCE: $2315
We are now at $2260 on zinc, up $50, as we continue to push off $2235 support, which held earlier in the week on a
two-day closing basis. Still, today’s move is not triggering anything significant on the charts, as the sideways action
continues.
* Zinifex said today that price volatility in zinc markets was making it difficult for miners and smelting companies to
agree on treatment fees for 2008. There had not yet been any real convergence of positions between the mines and
smelters, Zinifex's acting chief executive said after the release of the company's second quarter production report.
In the report, the company said that zinc production rose 8% for the year to the end of the second quarter versus the
same period a year earlier, coming in at 301,274 tons.

LEAD SUPPORT: $2400 / RESISTANCE: $2700
We are at $2,585 on lead, up $80, and continuing our sideways action.
* Zinifex’s lead concentrate output in the second quarter was up 29.5% over the same period the previous year at
37,406 tons.


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## Uttsy (25 January 2008)

Good morning guys, just wondering if anyone can tell me how come so many shares have been sold pretrade this morning? Are these another sets of options being exercised before the exercise date?


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## Ashsaege (25 January 2008)

AGM postcard... 'Nickel off Zinifex' hahaha
Lets leave AGM alone and find another company, and then watch AGM SP fall.
If AGM SP does fall, might be worth getting on them!


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## nioka (25 January 2008)

Ashsaege said:


> If AGM SP does fall, might be worth getting on them!




They don't have to fall to be worth getting in on. If you think they will fall why would the AGM holders not sell now. I value mine at more than the present offer price. As you said ZFX nickel off.


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## Ashsaege (25 January 2008)

nioka said:


> They don't have to fall to be worth getting in on. If you think they will fall why would the AGM holders not sell now. I value mine at more than the present offer price. As you said ZFX nickel off.




I agree with you, i didn't word it too well - they are worth getting on now for the long term. But in the short term I hope ZFX does back off, and depending if the market has another dive, AGM SP might fall and it would be a nice bargain.

What are some other companies that could be potential takeover targets for zfx? Provide some reasons too


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## Warren Buffet II (29 January 2008)

China's 2008 zinc exports to be half of 2007: COFCO 

Hong Kong (Platts)--28Jan2008
China's zinc exports in 2008 are expected to be only about half of the
275,649 mt exported in 2007 because of higher domestic prices and tax changes, a COFCO Futures Brokerage Co. official said Monday.  
Currently, domestic zinc prices in China are at Yuan 18,700-18,800/mt
($2,598-2,612/mt), higher than the three-month zinc price on the LME, which
closed at $2,260/mt on Jan 25, 2008. Meanwhile, changes on the taxation front are also expected to hurt exports. The Chinese government is expected to abolish the 5% value-added tax export rebate for 99.995%  zinc, the COFCO source said. Besides, the Chinese government has imposed a 5% export tax on 99.99% zinc and a 15% export tax on 99.95 zinc from January 1 this year. 

Chinese customs statistics show that China exported 275,649 mt zinc in
2007, down 15% from 2006. Figures from China's Bureau of Statistics stated that China produced 3.7486 million mt zinc in 2007, up 18% from 2006. The rise was attributed to some Chinese plants having lifted output as well as the completion of some new zinc production lines last year.


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## ba229 (29 January 2008)

What if Zinifex stopped selling any of its zinc?

Bear with me on this one.

They have heaps of cash and can survive for a while with no income. How about they stockpile all of their mining efforts for a year. Would this send the price of zinc up? If so they could then get in the market again with higher prices.


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## Nyden (29 January 2008)

ba229 said:


> What if Zinifex stopped selling any of its zinc?
> 
> Bear with me on this one.
> 
> They have heaps of cash and can survive for a while with no income. How about they stockpile all of their mining efforts for a year. Would this send the price of zinc up? If so they could then get in the market again with higher prices.





No need to go that far, Roland already has an idea.

Zinifex is going to transmute all their lead into gold!


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## roland (29 January 2008)

Maybe Zinifex should be using some of the cash to buy back some their shares to increase shareholder value.

Stopping production wouldn't help - it pays the bills, the $2Bil would probably get eaten up pretty quickly, and who knows, zinc may actually decrease in value.

Also, I think that you will find they have forward sales contracts to fill. I am not sure what Zinifex's contracts are like, but many mining companies have contracts that go forward anywhere up to 10 years.


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## doctorj (29 January 2008)

Buy-backs are pretty poor at enhancing shareholder value.  More often than not history shows that the company overpays for the shares. That's great for those selling shares, but not so good for those left holding the remaining scrip.

ZFX have an especially finite remaining mine life don't they?  Why not invest in something where they can leverage their existing Zinc experience?


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## Nyden (29 January 2008)

roland said:


> Maybe Zinifex should be using some of the cash to buy back some their shares to increase shareholder value.
> 
> Stopping production wouldn't help - it pays the bills, the $2Bil would probably get eaten up pretty quickly, and who knows, zinc may actually decrease in value.
> 
> Also, I think that you will find they have forward sales contracts to fill. I am not sure what Zinifex's contracts are like, but many mining companies have contracts that go forward anywhere up to 10 years.




I too thought about that prospect; them buying back shares, that is.

But in truth, I don't believe it to be too good an idea; especially whilst ZFX is clearly in a downtrend. They would lose valuable equity  should the price of their investment continue this downward spiral; which is obviously very bad for shareholders. 

They would essentially be buying more Zinc, which is not something they wish to do. They're looking to diversify, remember? :


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## roland (29 January 2008)

Nyden said:


> I too thought about that prospect; them buying back shares, that is.
> 
> But in truth, I don't believe it to be too good an idea; especially whilst ZFX is clearly in a downtrend. They would lose valuable equity  should the price of their investment continue this downward spiral; which is obviously very bad for shareholders.
> 
> They would essentially be buying more Zinc, which is not something they wish to do. They're looking to diversify, remember? :




...and I suppose with less shares on issue resultant from a buy back would put them closer to a predatory take over.

The Drake release looks good, more Zinc and Copper - I kinda like Copper. Copper and Zinc makes Brass I believe - almost looks like Gold


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## roland (29 January 2008)

Here is an interesting link regarding Copper and Zinc, http://www.key-to-metals.com/Article69.htm Just in case you are bored


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## kengaikl (29 January 2008)

ZFX shareholders would probably get more than the market is willing to pay for its shares if it were to sell all its mines plus 2.2 billion in cash, hand back the proceeds to its shareholders and delist from this market


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## roland (29 January 2008)

kengaikl said:


> ZFX shareholders would probably get more than the market is willing to pay for its shares if it were to sell all its mines plus 2.2 billion in cash, hand back the proceeds to its shareholders and delist from this market




Sounds like a plan - in fact the same could be said for half the stocks on the market, maybe we should just wind up every income producing company in Australia and sell it to the Chinese.

I wonder where that thought came from kengaikl, I guess you have no Zinifex shares huh?


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## kengaikl (29 January 2008)

roland said:


> Sounds like a plan - in fact the same could be said for half the stocks on the market, maybe we should just wind up every income producing company in Australia and sell it to the Chinese.
> 
> I wonder where that thought came from kengaikl, I guess you have no Zinifex shares huh?




I use to have quite a number of zfx shares got in at 16.35 and out when they reached 18.75 only because i needed the cash to set up a CFD account. Lucky i did but still zfx at these levels are a joke. Never would have thought they would reach these levels.


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## roland (29 January 2008)

kengaikl said:


> I use to have quite a number of zfx shares got in at 16.35 and out when they reached 18.75 only because i needed the cash to set up a CFD account. Lucky i did but still zfx at these levels are a joke. Never would have thought they would reach these levels.




sort of still missed the point and objectives of your previous comments. Most of the SP values of Aussie stocks have dropped substantially over the last 3 months, Zinifex are obviously not immune to general sentiment.


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## roland (30 January 2008)

Overnight the metals had a great day, all up with lead and zing (zinc) up 4.5% and 4% respectively - that should give Zinifex a little boost along today (hopefully)


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## roland (30 January 2008)

roland said:


> Overnight the metals had a great day, all up with lead and zing (zinc) up 4.5% and 4% respectively - that should give Zinifex a little boost along today (hopefully)




I kinda liked my typo there, so I kept it - let's get some zing back into zinc, although Zingifex doesn't sound so good - maybe zing effects


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## Viginti (30 January 2008)

unfortunately lack of zing today!!!  

was looking good early, but hey, weren't most things??

Would have thought strong uplift in commodities would have spurred it along.  Watch commodity prices drop overnight, with a subsequent ZFX drop tomorrow!!

And whats the latest on AGM?? does anyone have any idea how much of AGM ZFX have picked up to date??  Last time anyone posted was a miniscule 0.01% or so!!


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## roland (1 February 2008)

Interesting exerts from an Energy & Resources story: http://www.theglobeandmail.com/servlet/story/RTGAM.20080131.wbasemetals0131/BNStory/energy/home

SHANGHAI ”” Shanghai copper rose 1 per cent on Thursday, anticipating higher consumption after the Lunar New Year holidays, while zinc futures gained after much of China's zinc industry was laid low by severe winter weather.

China's worst-ever power shortage and severe winter weather have combined to decimate production of a host of metals in some Chinese provinces, benefiting zinc, lead and aluminum prices in particular.

Shanghai's most-traded April zinc gained 1.8 per cent or 350 yuan to 19,930 yuan a tonne, after a 2 per cent gain in the previous session.

Three-month London Metal Exchange zinc futures were up $5 at $2,355 at 7:00 a.m. GMT.


“There is certainly going to be some upside pressure on zinc. The outages in China are short term, but zinc has underperformed and this will help by providing some upside pressure,” Mark Pervan, senior commodity analyst at ANZ, said.

Looks like some good news for Zinifex's SP, maybe we'll break $11.00 today


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## nioka (1 February 2008)

Viginti said:


> unfortunately lack of zing today!!!  ;
> 
> And whats the latest on AGM?? does anyone have any idea how much of AGM ZFX have picked up to date??  Last time anyone posted was a miniscule 0.01% or so!!




According to a statement posted by Zinifex on the AGM announcements ZFX now hold .03% of the AGM shares. This means that a few more AGM holders have accepted $1 or ZFX are buying on market and paying about $1.05. At this rate they may get a seat on the AGM board by the year 2012.


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## banska bystrica (1 February 2008)

nioka said:


> This means that a few more AGM holders have accepted $1 or ZFX are buying on market and paying about $1.05.




You obviously don't read announcements properly. ZFX are not permitted to bid in the market at a price greater than the bid ($1.00). I wish people would do their homework.


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## nioka (1 February 2008)

banska bystrica said:


> You obviously don't read announcements properly. ZFX are not permitted to bid in the market at a price greater than the bid ($1.00). I wish people would do their homework.



 That is the public statement of their intentions. They can buy limited numbers at any price without having to announce it. There are ways around these things. I do do my homework and by doing it I have found that this is possible. Can you believe that in one week they can increase their holding from .01% to .03% by buying at $1 when the market price has been around $1.05. ZFX holders certainly are touchy when they discuss AGM.


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## Warren Buffet II (1 February 2008)

nioka said:


> According to a statement posted by Zinifex on the AGM announcements ZFX now hold .03% of the AGM shares. This means that a few more AGM holders have accepted $1 or ZFX are buying on market and paying about $1.05. At this rate they may get a seat on the AGM board by the year 2012.




They are not allowed to pay more than $1, so saying that they are buying at $1.05 is absolutely incorrect.

ZFX just needs to wait and wait, first production date is coming soon so we will see 

WBII


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## Warren Buffet II (1 February 2008)

nioka said:


> That is the public statement of their intentions. They can buy limited numbers at any price without having to announce it. There are ways around these things. I do do my homework and by doing it I have found that this is possible. Can you believe that in one week they can increase their holding from .01% to .03% by buying at $1 when the market price has been around $1.05. ZFX holders certainly are touchy when they discuss AGM.




Noika, well, you need to read the statement again and do your homework, ZFX will only buy *at prices up to including the offer price.*

AGM shareholders are becoming a bit touchy now that ZFX is not dancing their paso double 

WBII


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## nioka (1 February 2008)

Warren Buffet II said:


> Noika, well, you need to read the statement again and do your homework, ZFX will only buy *at prices up to including the offer price.*
> 
> AGM shareholders are becoming a bit touchy now that ZFX is not dancing their paso double
> 
> WBII



As they said in "yes minister" "all will be revealed in the fullness of time."It is AGM that is not dancing to the ZFX tune, and why should they.


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## Warren Buffet II (1 February 2008)

nioka said:


> As they said in "yes minister" "all will be revealed in the fullness of time."It is AGM that is not dancing to the ZFX tune, and why should they.




If AGM don't do the dance, ZFX will just wait, something will go wrong eventually (overcosts, delays, failures etc). Patience is a great virtue.

WBII


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## banska bystrica (2 February 2008)

nioka,
You really have no idea. I pointed out your error and you are the one who got all touchy because you have been revealed as NOT READING ANNOUNCEMENTS properly before suffering from foot and mouth disease.
Please do your homework next time before you make such ridiculous statements. The sole reason ZFX's stake in AGM increased slightly was because someone signed the form to accept $1.00. Crazy when you can sell on market at $1.06.
ZFX are not permitted to buy shares in the market at a price greater than $1.00. End of story.


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## Nyden (2 February 2008)

Gosh. A lot of emotion surrounds Zinifex ... at least here. That's not a good sign  Hot blooded investors can very quickly turn cold on a stock ...

Try to keep it civil, & level headed lads :


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## nioka (2 February 2008)

banska bystrica said:


> nioka,
> You really have no idea. I pointed out your error and you are the one who got all touchy because you have been revealed as NOT READING ANNOUNCEMENTS properly before suffering from foot and mouth disease.
> Please do your homework next time before you make such ridiculous statements. The sole reason ZFX's stake in AGM increased slightly was because someone signed the form to accept $1.00. Crazy when you can sell on market at $1.06.
> ZFX are not permitted to buy shares in the market at a price greater than $1.00. End of story.




Where does it say they are NOT permitted to pay more than $1. They say they reserve the right to buy on the market up to a dollar. I can not see that it waives the right to buy at prices above $1. As I said all will be revealed in the fullness of time.


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## Warren Buffet II (4 February 2008)

nioka said:


> Where does it say they are NOT permitted to pay more than $1. They say they reserve the right to buy on the market up to a dollar. I can not see that it waives the right to buy at prices above $1. As I said all will be revealed in the fullness of time.




OK, Nokia, none here will waste more time trying to explain that to you. If you are happy to believe that, good on you.

WBII


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## banska bystrica (4 February 2008)

nioka,
Your lack of basic understanding of company announcements is quite frightening really. Frightening in the sense you obviously have your money in the equity markets but have no real idea about what you're buying or selling.
I suggest a read of some basic money management books for a start.


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## nioka (4 February 2008)

banska bystrica said:


> nioka,
> Your lack of basic understanding of company announcements is quite frightening really. Frightening in the sense you obviously have your money in the equity markets but have no real idea about what you're buying or selling.
> I suggest a read of some basic money management books for a start.



Having been on company boards I KNOW what goes on behind the scene. As I have said before "all will be revealed in the fullness of time". You can apologise then if you like.

(I also have a diploma in business management if that is any help. It took 4 years to complete. I must have learnt something. What are your credentials.)


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## roland (5 February 2008)

Looks like Zinc, Nickel and Lead are not going to be real exciting on the Metals Futures:

Source: Thomson One Analytics. 

Recent and Forecast Commodity Prices



Bill Matlack is associated with Scarsdale Equities LLC, a registered broker/dealer and member FINRA, SIPC.

William Matlack


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## roland (5 February 2008)

Then again, short term could be a little brighter. This is the Metals Report from MF Global - courtesy of Kitco.

I am not much of a chartist, but it looks like it's found a bottom, thoughts?


----------



## roland (5 February 2008)

We have more Zinc:

HIGH GRADE ZINC CONFIRMED IN DRILLING AT NEFZA PROJECT, TUNISIA
HIGHLIGHTS
• An initial drilling program intersected 8.1m @ 11.7% Zn at Khatkhadha within the historic Bou
Aouane mining district, confirming the prospectivity of the region for high grade zinc deposits.
• A second hole drilled 800m to the southeast of Khatkhadaha intersected 21.4m @ 2.4% Zn and
1.7% Pb, confirming that zinc-lead mineralisation at Bou Aouane is laterally extensive.
• Assays are awaited for five additional drill holes at Bou Aouane, and drilling has also
commenced at the El Haouaria zinc prospect.
Background
The Nefza project is part of a joint venture agreement signed in December 2006 by Albidon and Zinifex
Limited for exploration and development of the Company’s Nefza and Haffouz zinc projects in Tunisia.
Further details of the JV are provided below, and refer to Diagram 1 below for a location map.
LEVEL 1


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## Nyden (5 February 2008)

roland said:


> Then again, short term could be a little brighter. This is the Metals Report from MF Global - courtesy of Kitco.
> 
> I am not much of a chartist, but it looks like it's found a bottom, thoughts?




Not so much a bottom; but rather resistance. It's struggling to breach that level substantially ... but, as the article mentions - should it break out of that resistance it should go relatively stronger.

Does seem to be struggling to break it though!

I guess, maybe there is support about 2200?


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## Kruegs (5 February 2008)

Yet Zinifex seems to be copping a flogging on the market later today, wiping out the gains from yesterday. Any thoughts on whether the recent uptrend since 22 Jan is likely to continue, or whether this is a sucker-rally and the overall downtrend which started in July is likely to continue lower?

Considering that the price has declined from over $21 to below $11, it would have to suggest to me that the stock has perhaps been oversold and will recover to a more balanced level??

If someone has some thoughts based on technical analysis, I would like to hear about (and learn from) your analysis.
I recently bought an April CALL option on the stock, but am wondering whether to close out and take a small profit, or if it is realistic to expect the stock to advance further over the next few weeks.


Thanks,
Kruegs


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## dj_420 (5 February 2008)

Kruegs said:


> Yet Zinifex seems to be copping a flogging on the market later today, wiping out the gains from yesterday. Any thoughts on whether the recent uptrend since 22 Jan is likely to continue, or whether this is a sucker-rally and the overall downtrend which started in July is likely to continue lower?
> 
> Considering that the price has declined from over $21 to below $11, it would have to suggest to me that the stock has perhaps been oversold and will recover to a more balanced level??
> 
> ...




Since ZFX is not diversified and is zinc only (At the moment) then they will track the price of zinc very closely. Zinc has been hammered over past few months and hence so have zinc miners.

I think this is why ZFX are trying to take AGM, they need to diversify to boost profits again as the outlook for zinc is not as rosy as it once was. However on the flip side, if ZFX can maintain a low cash operating cost it means that other companies will be forced to abandon production due to making losses on spot price of zinc which means less supply and leads to an increase in spot prices again.

So it just depend on your outlook for zinc, personally I would not be touching any zinc miners now, they are oversold for good reason. Just look at zinc spot 1-1.20 and companies cash operating costs and that explains the selloff in these companies.

IMO a technical rebound would need to be supported fundamentally.


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## roland (5 February 2008)

The depth ratio between buyers and sellers has been good over the past fews days - something I haven't seen for quite a long time. Short term Zinc prices have picked up, but long term expectations are not so rosey.

Additional resource announcements give little rallies here and there, but they don't seem to remain sustained.

The AGM offfer seems be stalemating the situation a little as well, in my opinion.

SP is low with expectations of high dividend yield still in the mix which should give us a little more volume in a few weeks as we get closer to ex-div. I'm preparing for another big sell off on ex-div day. For me now I'll be trying to get my average down and have some cash ready for the ex div crash - I'm long term on Zinifex.


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## dj_420 (5 February 2008)

roland said:


> Then again, short term could be a little brighter. This is the Metals Report from MF Global - courtesy of Kitco.
> 
> I am not much of a chartist, but it looks like it's found a bottom, thoughts?




You may find that the bottom has been found in that at these prices it is not financially viable for production for additional production, so as prices drop production will also slump then leading to a support in prices.

But it could just trend inside this channel for a long time now. Historically above old prices, but it seems to me to be a point where the price is supported by production cash costs, ie drop in price = reduced production = rise in spot prices = increased production, and cycle starts over.


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## Kruegs (5 February 2008)

DJ420 & Roland,

Thanks for your explanations.  What date does ZFX go ex-Dividend?

Regards,
Kruegs


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## roland (5 February 2008)

dj_420 said:


> You may find that the bottom has been found in that at these prices it is not financially viable for production for additional production, so as prices drop production will also slump then leading to a support in prices.
> 
> But it could just trend inside this channel for a long time now. Historically above old prices, but it seems to me to be a point where the price is supported by production cash costs, ie drop in price = reduced production = rise in spot prices = increased production, and cycle starts over.




I wonder as the value of zinc drops, then that would also affect the recycling business which got all excited with higher prices. As I understand, recycling is quite an expensive process which will become less attractive with zinc in surplus - supporting your cyclic comments.


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## roland (5 February 2008)

Kruegs said:


> DJ420 & Roland,
> 
> Thanks for your explanations.  What date does ZFX go ex-Dividend?
> 
> ...




Record date is expected 30th of March, and we are anticipating the usual $0.70 for the 6 months. Which at these levels gives us a yield of around 11% pre tax and 8% tax adjusted.


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## jet328 (5 February 2008)

roland said:


> Record date is expected 30th of March, and we are anticipating the usual $0.70 for the 6 months. Which at these levels gives us a yield of around 11% pre tax and 8% tax adjusted.




Just remember that the market knows ZFX will pay a dividend and just like any other company is likely fall by the dividend amount after it goes ex-div. The market factors in dividends


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## porkpie324 (5 February 2008)

Is this another false direction change for ZFX, with rising interest rates the higher yeilders are always hit the hardest, porkpie


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## roland (5 February 2008)

jet328 said:


> Just remember that the market knows ZFX will pay a dividend and just like any other company is likely fall by the dividend amount after it goes ex-div. The market factors in dividends




Yes, and often more than the dividend value - just like the last one 

Under normal circumstances the SP usually recovers quite quickly, which you can add to the mix of getting more value from your holdings. (note that I said UNDER NORMAL CIRCUMSTANCES). Zinifex and many other stocks are not behaving normally....


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## roland (5 February 2008)

Looks like the announcement has lifted Zinifex a little, we are trending away and upwards from the All Ords just now - hope it continues.


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## YELNATS (5 February 2008)

roland said:


> Record date is expected 30th of March, and we are anticipating the usual $0.70 for the 6 months. Which at these levels gives us a yield of around 11% pre tax and 8% tax adjusted.




Hi, according to my broker's website, if ZFX continue to pay a 70c dividend each 6 months and at the current ZFX price of $10.48, then

Quote

Dividends Per Share 140.00c 
Dividend Yield 13.36% 
Gross Dividend Amount 200.00c 
Current Dividend Amount 70.00c 
Franked Percent 100.00% 

Unquote

ie. dividend yield is 13.36% per annum fully franked, after 30% company tax.

Hope I've got this right.


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## roland (5 February 2008)

YELNATS said:


> Hi, according to my broker's website, if ZFX continue to pay a 70c dividend each 6 months and at the current ZFX price of $10.48, then
> 
> Quote
> 
> ...




Yes, that looks correct, the example I posted was with an SP a little higher. If the dividend dollar value is maintained, then obviously as the SP falls the percentage yield increases. 

Hence in long term value, the lower you can get your average down, the better the yield in the future if you hold for long term. I haven't worked it out, but imagine holders that have stock that they only payed $2.00 for - now that's a yield with a $1.40 return each year


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## roland (5 February 2008)

Re: Latest News Release from Zinifex

Zinifex CEO, Andrew Michelmore said: “Allegiance’s Directors are using smoke
and mirror tactics to present information in such a way as to make it difficult for
Allegiance shareholders to determine the true merits of the Zinifex Offer.”
“In the absence of any superior bid being made for their company, it would
appear that the Allegiance Directors are struggling to justify their claims that
Zinifex’s Offer is inadequate.”

Are the Zinifex management bordering on comments that could get them into legal trouble?

Personally, I would be happy if Zinifex stepped out of this - it's giving me a headache.


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## adobee (5 February 2008)

Perhaps all zinifex holders should buy Allegiance shares on market and sell and agree to sell to zinifex..  We would have to take a small loss however the loss would probably be minimal in relation to to the loss we have been taking on ZFX then once they have enough shares we hopefully reap the rewards in the ZFX share price..


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## nioka (5 February 2008)

adobee said:


> Perhaps all zinifex holders should buy Allegiance shares on market and sell and agree to sell to zinifex..  We would have to take a small loss however the loss would probably be minimal in relation to to the loss we have been taking on ZFX then once they have enough shares we hopefully reap the rewards in the ZFX share price..



 Perhaps the sensible ZFX holders are selling ZFX and buying AGM full stop. If I was a holder in ZFX I would be happy to trade them in for AGM shares.


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## treefrog (5 February 2008)

nioka said:


> Perhaps the sensible ZFX holders are selling ZFX and buying AGM full stop. If I was a holder in ZFX I would be happy to trade them in for AGM shares.




sorry nioka, what earnings and divvy did you say AGM paid??

INCOME Company All Ords Sector  
Dividend yield 10.8% 4.6% 3.5%  
Franking 100.0%    
Tax adjusted dividend yield 7.9% 3.2% 2.4%  
Dividend stability 100.0%


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## nioka (5 February 2008)

treefrog said:


> sorry nioka, what earnings and divvy did you say AGM paid??




You make a valid point BUT for me the potential for overall returns is what I have used to make my investment decision, ZFX holders are proving me right by being so desperate to get AGM one way or another. For adobee to suggest it is worth trading it at a loss just to get it only proves my point wouldn't you say.


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## treefrog (5 February 2008)

nioka said:


> You make a valid point BUT for me the potential for overall returns is what I have used to make my investment decision, ZFX holders are proving me right by being so desperate to get AGM one way or another. For adobee to suggest it is worth trading it at a loss just to get it only proves my point wouldn't you say.




possibly some are very keen but probably its more likely linked to their recent cap losses and wanting things to get back to "normal" whatever that is.
personally I like it when people think outside the square and it could be that a loss on such a deal would not be significant depending on the final wash and timing - eg ZFX offering more etc etc


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## roland (5 February 2008)

nioka said:


> You make a valid point BUT for me the potential for overall returns is what I have used to make my investment decision, ZFX holders are proving me right by being so desperate to get AGM one way or another. For adobee to suggest it is worth trading it at a loss just to get it only proves my point wouldn't you say.




I beg to differ, it's not the Zinifex holders at all, that are "desperate" to get AGM, it's the management that see some value in AGM, personally I couldn't care less. What I do care about is that Zinifex increase their future prospects to maintain the excellent value that they have been to shareholders.

AGM is just a small part of the continuing process of diversifying their resource pool and I am sure that they will not pay more than what any resource is worth. If AGM doesn't pan out, then onto the next target.


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## 3MT (5 February 2008)

Patience is a virtue they say, but I'm questioning the effectiveness of Zinifex's continual persuasion strategy. AGM is no doubt a great asset, largely due to its strategic location (Tasmania). AGM will not waiver unless they get a hefty premium to the current offer. period. 

The more they waste time with all this useless mailouts and trivial annoucements/attacks on AGM's management, the more resistance they will get.


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## jaffa (6 February 2008)

My concern is that this thing with AGM has been dragging on for too long.

ZFX managment now look to be taking it personally - to the point where it might be an unhealthy distraction.

The need to nail it or forget it and get on with something else.

Just my view!!!


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## Kruegs (7 February 2008)

> Hi, according to my broker's website, if ZFX continue to pay a 70c dividend each 6 months and at the current ZFX price of $10.48, then
> 
> Quote
> 
> ...





With today's drop in share price for ZFX of almost another 5% for Zinifex to below $9.50, that dividend return is looking even more attractive.
Any thoughts on where the next level of support would be for Zinifex, or whether we'll see some buying on the run up to the Dividend record date?

It still surprises me that a company which is producing, has cashflow to return such a high dividend to shareholders should have more than 60% of its value wiped in less than 6 months (even with the declining Zinc price).  Possibly oversold? Perhaps when the AGM business is resolved one way or the other, confidence will return to the stock?

Cheers,
Kruegs


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## nioka (7 February 2008)

Kruegs;
Have you looked at the potential earnings as per their announcement. 
 "Profit for the six months to Dec expected to be a total of $1,270 to $1320 million but only$250 to $275 million from CONTINUING operations." Second half looks bleak unless they are quick to get producing assets.


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## shinobi346 (8 February 2008)

Even if they only made $250million in the second half, thats nothing to sneeze at. I think the market backs that up when it was a $17+ share company and making around that.

Anyway I'm confident the management of ZFX know what they're doing and will turn the money they've made from selling Nyrstar into making more money. Swallowing AGM and turning it into something that will benefit all ZFX holders is just one option they've taken. At the current offer ZFX will still have a sizeable warchest left for further aquisitions.


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## banska bystrica (8 February 2008)

nioka said:


> Kruegs;
> Have you looked at the potential earnings as per their announcement.
> "Profit for the six months to Dec expected to be a total of $1,270 to $1320 million but only$250 to $275 million from CONTINUING operations."




$275M for one half will do me. That's a figure AGM would dream about. Anyway, today is the last chance to sell AGM for over a dollar.


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## nioka (8 February 2008)

banska bystrica said:


> $275M for one half will do me. That's a figure AGM would dream about. Anyway, today is the last chance to sell AGM for over a dollar.



Wrong on both counts. There may be some who will take the dollar or less but the long term holders are looking past twice that. AGM in preopen at one stage this morning. What is ZFX's next move. I hope it is move on.


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## roland (8 February 2008)

well, AGM are nearly at the $1.00 mark, fallen nearly 4% as I write. Interesting to see what happens if it does hit a dollar - should spook a few.


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## nioka (8 February 2008)

roland said:


> well, AGM are nearly at the $1.00 mark, fallen nearly 4% as I write. Interesting to see what happens if it does hit a dollar - should spook a few.



Exactly what ZFX are trying to do. They may even create a lemming rush but it isn't over till the fat lady sings. Wait for the next AGM announcement. Production?
 It would have been a good day for AGM to call a trading halt. That is what I would have done.


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## adobee (8 February 2008)

nioka said:


> Exactly what ZFX are trying to do. They may even create a lemming rush but it isn't over till the fat lady sings. Wait for the next AGM announcement. Production?
> It would have been a good day for AGM to call a trading halt. That is what I would have done.




I dont understand why you bother to post in the ZFX thread, you obviously dont hold any. Why not post all this rubbish in the AGM thread..?


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## DionM (8 February 2008)

Well I've decided to sit tight on my AGM shares, for better or worse.

Still sitting tight on my ZFX ones, but for a different reason!


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## nioka (8 February 2008)

adobee said:


> I dont understand why you bother to post in the ZFX thread, you obviously dont hold any. Why not post all this rubbish in the AGM thread..?



 Firstly I like a challenge. Secondly ZFX holders can't expect to walk over AGM holders. It is they little boy standing up to the big bully. Thirdly ZFX holders post on the AGM thread.  You dont have to read my posts. My aren't ZFX holders touchy.


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## roland (8 February 2008)

DionM said:


> Well I've decided to sit tight on my AGM shares, for better or worse.
> 
> Still sitting tight on my ZFX ones, but for a different reason!




Hi DionM - I picked up some more ZFX yesterday on the dip, got my average down to a smidgen above $13. Still a little high, but will keep holding and averaging down on dips. Good luck with the AGM thing


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## roland (8 February 2008)

nioka said:


> Firstly I like a challenge. Secondly ZFX holders can't expect to walk over AGM holders. It is they little boy standing up to the big bully. Thirdly ZFX holders post on the AGM thread.  You dont have to read my posts. My aren't ZFX holders touchy.




I think anyone can post anything anywhere, and you are most welcome to post here nioka. 

Your comments about being touchy doesn't have much to do about being a ZFX holder, it tends to be more of the type of reaction your negative and unproductive comments inspire.

Post away, it doesn't bother me


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## Thrive (8 February 2008)

Hi all,

Need some help - I'm sure I'm missing something fundamental.

ZFX market cap looks to be getting close to $4.5b, ZFX appear to have $2b+ in cash, still hold 7.8% in Nyrstar approx 185m AUD?

ZFX half yearly earnings (ordinary activity) looks to be somewhere around $260m.

So I'm looking at (as a shareholder) a company earning around $520m pa with a nett capital exposure of $2.3b - sounds good to me.

Whilst well down on prevous earnings the SP seems to have well and truely accounted for the downgrade including any zinc/mine life outlook.

Therefore as a shareholder I would like to see similar value in AGM. All being equal AGM needs to deliver $175m pa in earnings for the $800m investment - not immedaitely but at some point. 

Maybe this can be achieved, however I look at SMY now producing nearly 14,000 t Ni pa based on last quarter with a market capital of $750 - $800m and earnings of around $100m pa based on last half and ask the question is their better value for ZFX shareholders elsewhere.

I have complete confidence in ZFX management and believe we will pay for AGM no more than it's worth.

As I say I'm sure I've missed something so be nice.


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## treefrog (8 February 2008)

Kruegs said:


> With today's drop in share price for ZFX of almost another 5% for Zinifex to below $9.50, that dividend return is looking even more attractive.
> Any thoughts on where the next level of support would be for Zinifex, or whether we'll see some buying on the run up to the Dividend record date?
> 
> It still surprises me that a company which is producing, has cashflow to return such a high dividend to shareholders should have more than 60% of its value wiped in less than 6 months (even with the declining Zinc price).  Possibly oversold? Perhaps when the AGM business is resolved one way or the other, confidence will return to the stock?
> ...




Hi K
two key things the market doesn't like about ZFX
1) mainly a zinker and world zink price has more downside this year
2) it is running out of ore and cannot grow without more to replace mainly the massive century mine 
3) growth prospects atm are poor (comparatively)

the following paints a less than rosey pic for zfx - there is no way they will be able to keep paying previous divvies

FORECAST EARNINGS TREND
Have the analysts been upgrading or downgrading their forecasts over the last 3 months?


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## shinobi346 (11 February 2008)

Saw this on the AGM board and thought it would be relevant for discussion here as well. 

A rougue employee at AGM lost $8M trading stock.

http://www.afr.com/home/viewer.aspx...ce=/_xmlfeeds/industry/metals_mining/feed.xml


Bad news for ZFX who is now bidding for a company that has 8M less in assets.

But good news for AGM holders as their company is now worth 8M less in value but ZFX is still offering the same amount for it.


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## roland (12 February 2008)

Sorry to say, but I am having a little trouble with NOT feeling that the AGM board are beginning to become an emabarrassment.

Here is the latest from the Chairman:

Takeovers Panel Application
Allegiance Mining NL (“Allegiance”) advises shareholders that it has made an application to the
Takeovers Panel in relation to the off-market unsolicited takeover bid for Allegiance announced
by a wholly owned subsidiary of Zinifex Limited (“Zinifex”) on 17 December 2007. Allegiance
seeks a declaration of unacceptable circumstances and final orders.
The application relates to events leading up to the extension of Zinifex's offer at 6.59pm on
Friday 8 February. The offer had been due to close at 7pm. Allegiance is concerned that a quote
in the press attributed to a Zinifex executive, and other conduct of Zinifex, misled at least 3
shareholders. As a result, those shareholders accepted the offer at 7pm believing that it had not
been, and would not be, extended. The shareholders accepted for a combined holding of
approximately 40 million Allegiance ordinary shares.
On the morning of 8 February, Allegiance publicly expressed its concern that the market was not
informed about Zinifex's intentions and invited Zinifex to inform the market, but Zinifex made no
public statement until approximately 7.30pm when Zinifex advised the market that its offer had
been extended. This was of course some 30 minutes after the offer would have closed if it had
not been extended.
Zinifex’s offer is now scheduled to close at 7pm on 22 February 2008.
Allegiance has sought orders that the relevant shareholders be permitted to withdraw their
acceptances and that Zinifex not process the relevant acceptances.
The Allegiance Directors reiterate their unanimous recommendation to shareholders that they
REJECT Zinifex’s unsolicited, opportunistic and inadequate offer and to IGNORE all
correspondence received from Zinifex.
Yours sincerely
Tony Howland-Rose
MSc, DIC, FGS, FIMMM, FAusIMM, MAICD, FAIG, CEng
Chairman


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## 3MT (12 February 2008)

Just abit of ameteurish gibbering by AGM management. Nothing unusual there.

What I want to know is why a mining company would punt on penny stocks and compare themselves to SocGen out of amusement (not funny losing 8M). Absolute professionalism there.

Looks to me this amateur lot will run the company into the ground (pun intended)

What they need is some books by Graham Benjamin or Warren Buffet and selective reading on asf not hot copper. And of course a new business plan to go with it.

As for ZFX, I'm not coming back onboard until they start buying something of substance.


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## roland (13 February 2008)

Zinifex are NOT sitting on their butts!

ASX/MEDIA Release
13th February 2008
TRAFFORD AND ZINIFEX SIGN $8.5 MILLION
LEAD/ZINC/SILVER FARM IN AGREEMENT AT
WILCHERRY HILL
• Trafford to Manage First $4.5 Million Expenditure
• Exploration Programme to be Accelerated
• Historical results over +2km strike at Stuart include up to 4m @
15.2%Pb, 3m @ 2.8% Pb and 7m @ 5% combined Pb / Zn. At
Telephone Dam a best intersection of 6m @ 15.3% combined Pb / Zn
has been recorded
• Drill Ready targets
The Directors of Trafford Resources Limited (ASX:TRF) wish to advise that the Company
has signed a Farm In Agreement with Zinifex Australia Limited (Zinifex), a wholly owned
subsidiary of Zinifex Limited (ASX:ZFX) under which Zinifex may spend $8.5 Million to
explore for and develop Lead / Zinc / Silver (Pb/Zn/Ag) mineralisation within Trafford’s
Wilcherry Hill Project in South Australia’s Gawler Craton.
As announced by Trafford last year, Zinifex can earn up to a 75% interest in all
lead/zinc/silver discoveries within the project area over five years by the expenditure, in three
stages, of $8.5 Million. The major conditions are:
  During phase 1, Zinifex must spend $500,000 within the first year of signing the Farm
in agreement before equity earning can commence.
  Zinifex must then spend a further $4.0 Million over the next 2 year period to earn a
51% position in all Pb / Zn / Ag projects.
  Zinifex must then spend a further $4 Million over the next 1 year period to earn an
additional 24%.
  Zinifex may withdraw at any time after the phase 1 expenditure has been completed.
Trafford, which will be the manager and administrator of the joint venture during the first
three years and $4.5 million of expenditure, plans to commence the exploration programme
as soon as drill rigs and geophysical crews can be sourced
Trafford currently has a number of Pb / Zn / Ag prospects identified within the Wilcherry Hill
Project area of which two are at an advanced stage:
• Telephone Dam – best intersection of 6m @ 8.9% Pb & 6.4% Zn from 279m
• Stuart – 4m @ 15.2% Pb from 24m bottom of hole (including 1m @ 21.3% Pb)
during earlier reconnaissance drilling.


----------



## YELNATS (13 February 2008)

roland said:


> Allegiance publicly expressed its concern that the market was not informed about Zinifex's intentions and invited Zinifex to inform the market, but Zinifex made no public statement until approximately 7.30pm when Zinifex advised the market that its offer had been extended.
> 
> The Allegiance Directors reiterate their unanimous recommendation to shareholders that they REJECT Zinifex’s unsolicited, opportunistic and inadequate offer and to IGNORE all correspondence received from Zinifex.
> Yours sincerely
> ...




Seems that these two paragraphs are in contradicion. 

On the one hand AGM complains that ZFX is not informing the market adequately, yet on the other hand when they do, they advise their shareholders to ignore averything ZFX says.


----------



## roland (13 February 2008)

Zinifex's turn:

Zinifex seeks full disclosure of Allegiance losses
Zinifex Australia Limited (“Zinifex”) (ASX:ZFX) has sought assurances from the
directors of Allegiance Mining NL (“Allegiance”) (ASX:AGM) that leveraged
speculative share trading by the company has ceased and all losses have been
disclosed to the ASX, as per the attached letter.
Zinifex CEO Mr Andrew Michelmore said Zinifex’s interest in the reported
Allegiance share trading losses was justified given that Zinifex had made an
unconditional Offer for all Allegiance shares.
“Zinifex is legitimately concerned to know if there are additional losses, real or
potential, beyond the $7.9 million dollars already reported to the ASX”, Mr
Michelmore said.
“Allegiance directors are yet to confirm that the company is no longer exposed
to speculative share trading, leveraged or not.
“We believe all Allegiance shareholders should be advised of the extent of the
share trading positions that Allegiance have taken, whether any of these
positions remain in place, who exactly authorised this highly speculative trading,
how exactly these positions are financed and what relationship the company
and directors have to the companies invested in.
“Zinifex is seeking full disclosure of the recently revealed share trading activities
as it may impact the future of its Offer for Allegiance.
“Zinifex is disappointed that Allegiance’s share trading activities were not
disclosed in the Target’s Statement and that disclosure thus far has been
limited to a one line entry in its Quarterly Report.
“In the event that Allegiance is facing additional potential losses in the current
volatile market or fails to provide adequate disclosure, Zinifex reserves the right
to allow its Offer for Allegiance shares to lapse on the scheduled closing date of
Friday 22 February 2008.
“Allegiance is not the only game in town. We have other opportunities we are
assessin”, Mr Michelmore said.


----------



## YELNATS (13 February 2008)

roland said:


> Zinifex's turn:
> 
> “Allegiance is not the only game in town. We have other opportunities we are
> assessing”, Mr Michelmore said.




Ah, the parting barb, the final twist of the knife, not a lot of love lost between these adversaries.:


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## roland (14 February 2008)

AGM's turn:

13 FEBRUARY 2008
RESPONSE TO ZINIFEX ASX RELEASE
Allegiance made full and immediate disclosure of trading losses
Zinifex Australia Limited ('Zinifex') today made a release about Allegiance Mining NL's
(Allegiance's) recent share trading losses. Allegiance has for several years conducted and made full
disclosure about limited investment trading activities.
Most of the recently reported share trading losses were identified after the date of Allegiance's
Target's Statement, so could not have been disclosed in it as Zinifex suggests.
Allegiance made full disclosure of the losses on 31 January 2008, as soon as the amount of the
losses was determined, and over a week before this issue was mentioned in the press. The
disclosure comprised detailed information over nine lines of text, not one line as Zinifex said today.
Allegiance considers that the losses reported are the maximum amount claimed and may be less
but not more.
Allegiance terminated its investment activity immediately after the January losses were identified.
Allegiance considers that Zinifex is using inaccurate statements about the losses and their
disclosures as a diversionary tactic in the context of its opportunistic and inadequate $1.00 per
share takeover bid for Allegiance. Allegiance notes the lack of traction in acceptances of Zinifex's
offer which is about to enter its seventh week.
Notwithstanding this Allegiance remains prepared to discuss with Zinifex improvements to the terms
of its bid.


----------



## roland (14 February 2008)

Takeover Panel Halts the Processing of Lion Selection and others:

Corporations Act
Section 657E
Interim Orders
In the matter of Allegiance Mining NL
1. Allegiance Mining NL (Allegiance) made an application to the Takeovers Panel
dated 11 February 2008 in relation to the affairs of Allegiance.
2. Zinifex Australia Limited (Zinifex) has made an off-market takeover bid for all of
the shares of Allegiance (Offer).
Under section 657E of the Corporations Act 2001 (Cth), the Panel ORDERS:
1. Zinifex not take any further steps to process the acceptances of Lion Selection
Group Limited, Andrew Lambert and Caroline Lee and the Andrew Lambert
and Caroline Lee Superannuation Fund received by Computershare Investor
Services Limited on 8 February 2008 (Acceptances), or dispose of or otherwise
deal with any of the shares the subject of the Acceptances.
2. These orders are to have effect until the earlier of:
(i) the determination of the proceeding
(ii) 2 months after the date of this order.
Dated 14 February 2008
Alan Shaw
Counsel
with authority of John Fast
President of the Sitting Panel



One wonders if the shareholders involved are happy about their transaction being put on hold ????


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## rub92me (14 February 2008)

Reading all this tit for tat between AGM and ZFX, I'd think it is perhaps better for ZFX to move on and look at other opportunities. If they do, how do they get rid of the shares they already bought though? If they dump them all on market, they're sure to make a loss. Bit of a catch 22 here.


----------



## roland (14 February 2008)

rub92me said:


> Reading all this tit for tat between AGM and ZFX, I'd think it is perhaps better for ZFX to move on and look at other opportunities. If they do, how do they get rid of the shares they already bought though? If they dump them all on market, they're sure to make a loss. Bit of a catch 22 here.




Yep - it's getting tiresome. (I think I may have even said that before). At least if the offer falls through Zinifex maybe able to offload at a profit.


----------



## ozrob (14 February 2008)

rub92me said:


> Reading all this tit for tat between AGM and ZFX, I'd think it is perhaps better for ZFX to move on and look at other opportunities. If they do, how do they get rid of the shares they already bought though? If they dump them all on market, they're sure to make a loss. Bit of a catch 22 here.




I totally agree, ZFX should let Lion Selection Group Limited keep its shares and walk away from AGM. They can then sit back and watch the price drop to 50 cents.


----------



## roland (14 February 2008)

I wonder what else is up the sleaves of the directors since wasting away $8mil - maybe an accidental fire? Would help reduce the value of the company - maybe enough for Zinifex to withdraw.


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## roland (15 February 2008)

What happened to the 400mil shares sitting on the buyers list of AGM, I thought that was Zinifex???

Notice also this morning Barclays have increased their stake in Zinifex - from 7.91% to 9.15% average buy at $10.50. Obviously they see ZFX as being a good buy even at prices above where we are now.


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## 3MT (16 February 2008)

Maybe barclays are just switching out of financials and into the resources? they gotta park their money somewhere 

Vague facts are Zinifex have good management (at least provened) and good cash reserves (I am assuming that they have not invested their money in centro or mfs). Who knows these days. Everything seems opaque nowadays (just using the trendy word of the week). But extreme cynicism aside, I am keen to find an entry point into this company because of those 2 vague facts.

But first they must walk away from AGM (no, this is not a threat to Michelmore as I'm sure he doesn't venture near these forums). Even if the acquisition succeeds, I feel the level of animosity between the 2 now will make it impractical for any "handover" to happen smoothly - when you spend that much money you need these things to go smoothly.


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## roland (16 February 2008)

It's seems odd that Barclays are buying, since I have checked my managed funds with Colonial and they have just ditched Zinifex - quoting worries of sustainable profits.

It's possible they have 2 x different takes - i.e. Colonial looking for long term dividend returns (Zinifex could be on shakey ground here), Barclays looking for capital gain (hard to argue Zinifex's SP should be higher than what it is).


----------



## happyjack (16 February 2008)

roland said:


> It's seems odd that Barclays are buying, since I have checked my managed funds with Colonial and they have just ditched Zinifex - quoting worries of sustainable profits.
> 
> Barclays have 10% they can either take the dividend and then quietly sell off as the share price recovers or they can keep on accumulating up to 19 % and then say to bhp or rio Hey Guys ya wonna by a Zinker ? sort of TO by stealth the exact opposite of how ZFX hit AGM.
> 
> ...


----------



## roland (18 February 2008)

UBS just picked up 10% of AGM. Looks like the AGM takeover is looking a little less likely.:

Jinchuan 10%
UBS 10%

Not sure what the directors are holding, but it's all adding up to a failed take over bid IMO.


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## banska bystrica (19 February 2008)

roland said:


> UBS just picked up 10% of AGM. Looks like the AGM takeover is looking a little less likely.:
> 
> Jinchuan 10%
> UBS 10%
> ...




Stop ramping and telling lies. Where did you get UBS having 10%? 5.5% more like it but that wouldn't suit your motives would it?


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## oldblue (19 February 2008)

For what its worth, latest disclosure shows Barclays holding 9.15%.

:

Disc; Not holding either AGM or ZFX but interested in the latter.


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## roland (19 February 2008)

banska bystrica said:


> Stop ramping and telling lies. Where did you get UBS having 10%? 5.5% more like it but that wouldn't suit your motives would it?




Yes, you are correct- 5.52%, must have misread the announcement. Would appreciate lowering the tone of your personal attack though, it's really not necessary.


----------



## roland (19 February 2008)

Re: Drake & Zinifex, if anyone is interested, here is a mineralisation report on the Bergslagen region in Sweden http://www.sgu.se/dokument/service_sgu_publ/C833_ripa.pdf , interesting to note the text referring to reports of gold deposits up to 45g/ton


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## roland (19 February 2008)

This reference fron the International Geological Congress Olso 2008  is probably better:

Regional geology and ore deposits: Bergslagen is a mining district in central Sweden that has been a major metal producer for well over 1000 years and which contains over 6000 ore deposits and mineral prospects (Stephens et al., 2001). The district is the intensely mineralized part of a Paleoroterozoic (mainly 1.90-1.87 Ga), felsic magmatic province in the Baltic Shield (Fig. 1). The district contains a diverse range of ore deposit types, including banded iron formation, magnetite-skarn, manganiferous skarn- and carbonate-hosted iron ore, apatite-bearing iron ore, stratiform and stratabound Zn-Pb-Ag-(Cu-Au) sulphide ores, REE deposits and W skarn.

..... it goes on - see http://www.33igc.org/coco/entrypage...1&objectid=11042&guid=1&lnodeid=1&pageid=5036


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## johnno71 (19 February 2008)

I think UBS just sold their shares to zfx. No one else holds that many shares that would be selling.


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## roland (20 February 2008)

MQG just picked up 6% of AGM, seems like even we the ZFX takeover is not successful, we will have what is shaping up to be a good investment.


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## johnno71 (20 February 2008)

Why would MQG buy in at over $1 when they could wait and pick up AGM for 70c or 80c when ZFX offer exspires. They must think ZFX will offer more.


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## nioka (20 February 2008)

johnno71 said:


> Why would MQG buy in at over $1 when they could wait and pick up AGM for 70c or 80c when ZFX offer exspires. They must think ZFX will offer more.



 Just maybe they are happy that AGM is worth more than ZFX is prepared to offer and they are as happy to hold until production commences and AGM show the real potential of a major nickel province. If AGM shares ever fell to the 70c the rush to buy by the faithful will soon push the SP back to new heights. It is real investors holding it to the present price now, theZFX offer is just a diversion.


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## johnno71 (20 February 2008)

They probably think AGM is a good buy at a dollar, just like ZFX does. But why pay over a $1 when they could pick them up cheaper in a weeks time. AGM aren't without risk, they might have plenty of nickel in the ground, but if they go broke before they mine it, because they loose money punting on the share market or another delay in production. Only a 5 weeks left in the quarter and haven't heard much about when production will start. Thats odd for a company that likes talking it's self up.


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## roland (20 February 2008)

Oh bugger it, Zinifex extends the offer until 7th March 

I was hoping that in 2 days time, all this AGM stuff would be over - this is getting really tiresome.

Just waiting now to read the full details.......


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## roland (20 February 2008)

roland said:


> Oh bugger it, Zinifex extends the offer until 7th March
> 
> I was hoping that in 2 days time, all this AGM stuff would be over - this is getting really tiresome.
> 
> Just waiting now to read the full details.......




Well, it was pretty obvious what the ZFX shareholders thought of that decision. $9.00 - down over 4%


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## roland (20 February 2008)

OK, well these graphs shows me it's not really Zinifex's fault that the SP has fallen so much. ZFX's SP is really tied closer to the LME action than I thought.


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## roland (20 February 2008)

and if you think Zinc is having a hard time - have a go at working out what is happening with Nickel


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## roland (20 February 2008)

... and, this is probably why we are not chasing copper right now, sort of hard to get a leg in with copper doing so well.


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## tradingforwealth (20 February 2008)

I believe they are posting their results on Friday, so lets hope there is news on the dividend.


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## vishalt (20 February 2008)

Eye can sense some eye popping after Zinifex cuts its dividends. 

No idea what the directors were thinking when giving that much in the first place (can't complain if you got it though hey).


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## roland (20 February 2008)

tradingforwealth said:


> I believe they are posting their results on Friday, so lets hope there is news on the dividend.




The general consensus is that the dividend yield is going to drop - bugger it. I'll hold for it this half year (didn't last 6 months). If it drops, I'm going to pull half of my holdings at a loss and throw into something like BBP, or BBW.


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## happyjack (21 February 2008)

I only had a quick look but it did not appear that anyone else had posted this so here is the AGM saga part 1024

20 February 2008
Dear Fellow Shareholder,

Update on Zinifex Offer

I am writing to you to provide an update on the current status of Zinifex’s offer for Allegiance.

At the outset I would like to thank you for your support during this process which your Allegiance team much appreciates. The overwhelming majority of Allegiance shareholders have chosen to follow your Directors’ unanimous recommendation to REJECT the inadequate $1.00 per share offer from Zinifex. Furthermore, our recent polling of shareholders indicates that in excess of 90% of
shareholders believe that Allegiance is worth more than the current offer.

Zinifex extends offer to 7 March 2008

Today, Allegiance was notified by Zinifex that it has extended the offer period under its takeover bid until 7pm (Melbourne time) on Friday, 7 March 2008. Since I last wrote to you, your Directors have continued to evaluate all options and strategies to maximise shareholder value, in light of the current inadequate offer from Zinifex.
With Zinifex’s extension of its offer you now have more time to consider your position and await further developments

In closing

Thank you for your continued support for the Allegiance team and we will continue to keep you updated on developments as they occur.

With best personal regards
Tony Howland-Rose
MSc, DIC, FGS, FIMMM, FAusIMM, MAICD, FAIG, CEng
Chairman

Happyjack


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## johnno71 (21 February 2008)

Report in the afr this morning saying macquarie have off loaded their AGM shares to a hedge fund. Anybody got any idea want is going on with this 
company?


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## johnno71 (21 February 2008)

Just been looking at agm's web site progress photos of the plant at Avebury. I have worked on construction sites similar to this and if the dates on these photos are right there is no way production will start this quarter. Will be lucky to be going next quarter, must be what zfx is waiting for.


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## banska bystrica (21 February 2008)

You're spot on johnno. I rang the company yesterday and asked if they were starting production in the 1st QTR and the response was a lot of oooing and arring. "Our aim is to be in production by the end of the 1st qtr".
Note the word AIM.
They will be lucky to start commissioning by June and then production after that. It will be a year overdue from the Sep 2006 deadline is my tip.


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## roland (21 February 2008)

banska bystrica said:


> You're spot on johnno. I rang the company yesterday and asked if they were starting production in the 1st QTR and the response was a lot of oooing and arring. "Our aim is to be in production by the end of the 1st qtr".
> Note the word AIM.
> They will be lucky to start commissioning by June and then production after that. It will be a year overdue from the Sep 2006 deadline is my tip.




well, what a hoot! - it's interesting the response you got BB, I wonder how many AGM shareholders really know the state of affairs other than the spin dished out in news releases ...


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## johnno71 (21 February 2008)

Noticed Howland-Rose keeps saying "should" be in production by the end of first quarter. Zinc price on the way up, about time it caught up with  the rest of commodities.


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## gfresh (21 February 2008)

Unfortunately I don't see much of an uptrend yet for Zinc.. It's stopped it's downward trend and bottomed somewhat, which is a good sign.. 

However, while Zinc prices remain at these prices, and $AUD continues to hover around $US0.90, companies such as ZFX and CBH will continue to sit pretty flat.


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## johnno71 (21 February 2008)

I was talking about todays price. up 4.5% biggest rise it's had for a while. The price over the next year will probably be flat or a little higher.


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## happyjack (22 February 2008)

Johnno71
You said
Report in the afr this morning saying macquarie have off loaded their AGM shares to a hedge fund. Anybody got any idea want is going on with this company?

If you check the "AGM" notices at the ASX you will find a notice from Macquarie
"becoming a substantial holder" 20/2/07 they haven't unloaded

Happyjack


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## johnno71 (22 February 2008)

AFR yesterday
"In a much longer running take over battle, it's worth noting that 4.5% of Allegiance Mining that changed hands this week was snapped up by a hedge fund, via some sort of swap deal with Macquarie. The deal implies the pressure for a resolution is still building, although hostilities between the two camps have thawed slightly."
Might be rubbish report, but UBS annouced they had acquired 5.52% of AGM on the 14th of Feb. Macquarie picked up 35 million shares from someone late on the 19th. Lion Selection's shares are in dispute with takeovers Panel, so I don't think they can sell and the chinese wouldn't sell theirs, so it must have been UBS who sold. They haven't announced it to the ASX and maybe Macquarie don't have to announce that they have got rid of their AGM shares either.


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## roland (22 February 2008)

Zinc had a good night - up 5.2%

*Bloomberg report via Kitco Metals:*

Yunan Producers 

Yunnan Luoping Zinc & Electricity Co., a copper producer based in China's Yunnan province, said today it cut output because of a lack of power. Yunnan Chihong Zinc and Germanium Co. said yesterday it had reduced output since Feb. 11. 

Zinc and lead rose on speculation power shortages in China, the world's largest producer of both metals, will reduce supply after the country's worst snowstorms in decades halted smelters and mines, and cut transportation links from late January. 

Yunnan Luoping Zinc & Electricity Co., a producer of the metal based in China's Yunnan province, said today it cut output because of a lack of power. Yunnan Chihong Zinc and Germanium Co. said yesterday it had reduced output since Feb. 11. 

``Damage to production areas in China is more significant than some had thought,'' said Alex Heath, head of industrial metals trading at RBC Capital Markets in London. People are buying the metal in ``panic,'' he said. 

Zinc Rally 

*Zinc rose as much as $145, or 6 percent, to $2,555, the highest intraday price since Feb. 1. *Shanghai zinc for May delivery rose by the exchange-imposed daily limit of 4 percent. Special high-grade zinc for immediate delivery in Changjiang, Shanghai's biggest cash market, gained as much as 7.2 percent. 

Stockpiles of the metal tracked by the LME rose to a four- month high of 121,050 tons. Still, its availability is limited as LME figures show one company controlled between 50 percent and 79 percent of total inventories as of Feb. 19. 

At today's cash price and excluding zinc earmarked for withdrawal, it would cost about $277.2 million to hold half of the LME-monitored stockpiles of the metal. 

Barclays Capital projected China's lost zinc output at about 45,000 tons, less than 1 percent of last year's total world production of 11.41 million tons estimated by the International Lead and Zinc Study Group. Stockpiles of the metal are adequate to fill any gap, the bank's analysts led by Kevin Norrish in London wrote today in a report. 

Outpacing Supply 

Zinc and lead consumption exceeded production last year, although the supply shortfall in both metals was lower than in 2006, according to Lisbon-based ILZSG. 

China's zinc demand expanded 15 percent last year, accounting for a third of world use. The country's demand for lead rose 15 percent in 2007. China is the world's largest user of both metals, the Lisbon-based group said Feb. 18. 

Lead climbed as much as $84.15, or 2.6 percent, to $3,360.15 a ton, the highest since Nov. 16.


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## roland (22 February 2008)

Here is the 30 day spot Zinc price in red, overlayed on a 30 ZFX chart. Hard to think Zinifex is not looking for a postive run.


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## YELNATS (22 February 2008)

happyjack said:


> I
> Dear Fellow Shareholder,
> 
> Update on Zinifex Offer
> ...




Lol. With all those letters after his name, perhaps the chairman should run for president, or at least governor-general.

AGM "continued to evaluate all options and strategies to maximise shareholder value" - however when will he will specify and report on these "options and strategies" to shareholders?

On the one hand while the directors say shareholders should REJECT ZFX's offer, they should at the same time "consider (their) position and await further developments".

These statements come across as if not contradictory, at least cloudy and wafflish.


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## johnno71 (22 February 2008)

zfx have been ordered by takeovers panel not process Lion Selection's shares. From what I can gather it is common practice what zfx did, leaving it to the last minute to extend their offer.


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## kingbrown (22 February 2008)

Have been watching for quite some time after i got out at $16 after seeing rough seas ahead 

Couldnt help myself after seeing the sp get smashed 
Bought back in yesterday at 9.20 just in the nick of time by the look of it 

Thinking on buying more in the early 9,s again
if she dives again 
One would have to think ZFX would now have to be value at these prices ? 

And now we have the bonus wild card 
of chinese producers with the lights out    he he !  


Closed at 10.15 today 
GO ZFX 

Nice !


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## roland (22 February 2008)

I used the rise today to sell down some higher cost parcels, I'm not far off from being spot on average - luckily got some at $8.50. Anything under $10 will be a target for me. Could see a little weakness with the Quarterly next week - and of course Zinc had a big run last night on the LME - which usually pulls back a little on the following day.

Let's see .....


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## rustyheela (22 February 2008)

Zinifex bid for Allegiance stumbles

February 22, 2008 - 7:43PM


The Takeovers Panel has made a declaration of unacceptable circumstances and final orders regarding Zinifex Ltd's $745 million hostile takeover bid for nickel miner Allegiance Mining NL.

Last week, the Takeovers Panel ordered Zinifex to halt the processing of acceptances, amid claims shareholders were misled.

Zinifex's original offer was scheduled to close at 1900 AEDT on February 8 but half an hour later, Zinifex's announcement that it had extended the $1 per share bid by a fortnight hit the Australian stock exchange website.

The Takeover Panels said Zinifex's letter advising shareholders that the offer had been extended was collected by Australia Post at about 1700 AEDT on February 8.

Allegiance had claimed that some of its shareholders - including five per cent shareholder Lion Selection Group Ltd - had accepted the offer, wrongly believing it was about to close or had already closed.

"The panel has made orders to the effect that Allegiance shareholders who accepted the offer after 5.00pm (Melbourne time) but before 7.30pm on 8 February 2008 have a right to apply to Zinifex to cancel their acceptance of the offer," the panel said in a statement.

"The panel considered that any acquisition of control over voting shares in Allegiance should take, and in this case should have taken, place in an informed market and shareholders should have enough information to consider the merits of the extension of the offer and reasonable time to consider it.

"At 5.00pm on February 8, 2008, Zinifex should have informed Allegiance so that Allegiance could notify its shareholders."

On Wednesday, Zinifex again extended the offer, this time until 1900 AEDT on March 7.

As of Wednesday, Zinifex had a 5.44 per cent stake in its target, including the share acceptances that Zinifex may wind up cancelling.

Zinifex releases its half year results on Monday.

Shares in Allegiance closed steady at $1.07, while shares in Zinifex finished 69 cents higher, or 7.29 per cent, at $10.15.

 © 2008 AAP


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## roland (22 February 2008)

I stumbled across this site: http://www.zinc.org/index.html whilst researching the stuff we are investing in. Nice site with some good reading on all things Zinc


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## roland (23 February 2008)

What happened to Zinc overnight?






Is it common to have absolutely no price movement? Seems odd to have a 5% run the day before and dead flat last night.


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## johnno71 (23 February 2008)

BBC web site said lme zinc price went down 3% or $75 to $2462.5 a ton. It was the biggest looser of the base metals.


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## johnno71 (23 February 2008)

CNBC saying Zinc went down over night %1.5 to $2487 a ton. I watch Kitco too, but I don't think they quote LME prices which is what the market seems to watch.


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## rederob (23 February 2008)

johnno71 said:


> CNBC saying Zinc went down over night %1.5 to $2487 a ton. I watch Kitco too, but I don't think they quote LME prices which is what the market seems to watch.



I don't pay any attention to CNBC.
Kitco quotes spot, not LME.
LME is the "market" indicator, while Kitco just plots sales exclusive of LME.
LME and Kitco can show differnt trends as LME quotes ring close prices.
Kitco's charts are also prone to glitches, occasionally suggesting massive market swings, which are quite misleading.
Most contracts between producers and buyers are set against LME metal prices.


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## cordelia (25 February 2008)

YELNATS said:


> Lol. With all those letters after his name, perhaps the chairman should run for president, or at least governor-general.




when I first saw all those letters affter his name I thought it was a joke......Its embarrassing that the guy even puts them there....


Its been my experience that someone who has to  obtain credibility by showing how many qualifications they have probably isn't qualified....

Let's face it how many successful people do you know who don't have a degree...

BTW ..this isn't sour grapes for all those with a university education....I have one myself....


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## nioka (25 February 2008)

Looks like ZFX has won this game. Now to planB for me as there is a better bet than ZFX. $1.10 is robbery.


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## Viginti (25 February 2008)

nioka said:


> Looks like ZFX has won this game. Now to planB for me as there is a better bet than ZFX. $1.10 is robbery.




I assume that by robbery you mean ZFX got AGM cheap??  If so, wouldnt ZFX be a 'good bet'??  Not that there wouldn't be better options out there...

I am still surprised that it has taken this long, and then all of a sudden the AGM directors roll over....something more to this???


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## nioka (25 February 2008)

Viginti said:


> I assume that by robbery you mean ZFX got AGM cheap??  If so, wouldnt ZFX be a 'good bet'??  Not that there wouldn't be better options out there...
> 
> I am still surprised that it has taken this long, and then all of a sudden the AGM directors roll over....something more to this???



 I guess the directors have been offered a sweetener with executive positions and good salary contracts. Been expecting this to happen sooner than later. I have taken a position with MCR as my nickel stock. Sold half my AGM last week for $1.07 and got into MCR, made up the threecents I'll lose out on AGM. Made a fair profit on AGM but still consider the deal was best for ZFX. Now I can sit back and hope the ZFXers have their doomsday predictions fulfilled, the ones where they doubted the production start up date would be this quarter etc. The fact that the takeover looks like being successful means that delays are likely and the picture may not be as good as we were led to believe.


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## johnno71 (25 February 2008)

ZFX saying in half yearly report production at Avebury to start in 2Q, might be optimistic. I hope AGM have got as much reserves as they have been spruking about, or ZFX could have paid to much.


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## banska bystrica (25 February 2008)

THR and his cronies knew that yet another production delay was imminent so they have eaten humble pie and sold out.
ZFX will make a go of it though. They can use their plant down the road from Avebury that is on care and maintenance to ramp up nickel production to 15,000 tonnes per annum. They will make about 150M net profit per year from AGM's nickel once in full production.


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## Nicks (25 February 2008)

johnno71 said:


> ZFX saying in half yearly report production at Avebury to start in 2Q, might be optimistic. I hope AGM have got as much reserves as they have been spruking about, or ZFX could have paid to much.




I dont think the ZFX team are stupid. Im sure they know exactly whats there and what it is worth. Its all part of the haggle game. In the end i''m sure they still got it for a good eps accredative deal and they can squeeze much more econimic value out of it then AGM could have.


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## oldblue (25 February 2008)

Yes, I was always worried that ZFX would pay too much for AGM.
Now  that's settled I'll look seriously at taking a small position.


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## rustyheela (26 February 2008)

Anyone see Michelmore on ABC late business news last night? ZFX are still looking for aquisitions and he suggested they would like to diversify into copper, and not necessarily in Oz. 
after the AGM takeover they still have a $ 2.3billion warchest, OXR lookout?
Eqinox? soon to be in production, maybe a AGM - let them do all the hardwork then nab em for the spoils?


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## agro (26 February 2008)

supplementary bidders statement released


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## rustyheela (26 February 2008)

made booboo about warchest in above post, heres the transcript

Zinc miner delivers record profit



Broadcast: 26/02/2008

Reporter: Ali Moore

Zinc miner Zinifex has delivered a record first half profit up 74 per cent to $1.3 billion.

Transcript
ALI MOORE: Zinc miner Zinifex has delivered a record first half profit up 74 per cent to $1.3 billion off the back of the sale of its smelting assets but ongoing operations had a tougher time. Higher production hit by lower prices and the stronger Australian dollar with revenue for the half down 27 per cent. Also today, Zinifex upped its bid for the Tasmanian based nickel miner Allegiance Mining finally winning agreement from the Allegiance board to recommend the deal to shareholders. Zinifex CEO Andrew Michelmore joined me from our Melbourne studio earlier this evening. Andrew Michelmore, welcome to Lateline Business.

ANDREW MICHELMORE, CEO, ZINIFEX: Thank you, Ali.

ALI MOORE: A record profit thanks to the sale of the smelting assets revenue actually fell. Given commodity prices and the currency are out of your control, how do you change the revenue story?

ANDREW MICHELMORE: I think the revenue, mainly the prices for zinc have been grossly overplayed. The prices were already factored in a significant expectation of excess supply of zinc. We think that's grossly overdone. We don't think that supplies going to come through anything like projected. I think also the funds have been playing that price down. They've been selling short and now we see when the price picks up they start having to cover their positions. I think it's been grossly overshot and so that's why we're quite positive about the future going forward, that prices will pick up.

ALI MOORE: As you noted, prices are down some 22 per cent over the half. What's your outlook for the second half for prices?

ANDREW MICHELMORE: Look, I think it's really the settling out of these funds, also seeing the various projects being delayed. There's production cuts, there's issues with power supply, there's weather issues. And I think as those come through you will see a number of changes. Last week at one stage the zinc price was up over 5 per cent, so it can turn very quickly.

ALI MOORE: You're seeing strong demand for zinc for the rest of the year?

ANDREW MICHELMORE: We are. About 50 60 per cent of zinc's consumption goes into coating steel to give it corrosion resistance. The steel industry as you've seen with the iron ore prices booming in the developing countries, and 13 to 15 per cent of that steel is coated in zinc. So again, it's where we see there's a disjoint between what we're seeing on the zinc being talked down and yet steel being talked up. So we see that the two will come, the message will get out soon.

ALI MOORE: Given that optimistic outlook, can you give us a forecast for full year results?

ANDREW MICHELMORE: I'm in the a position to forecast thing like that. I think it's probably too early and we'll just have to see. The prices can also be effected by the economy, the confidence in the economy. You see that with the subprime having a collateral damage to the economy and expectations. Our performance is so related to the prices that it's just too early to say.

ALI MOORE: Without pinning you down on specifics, you are, though, an optimistic about global growth despite those subprime issues?

ANDREW MICHELMORE: Most definitely. I think what we're seeing is what I'd call collateral damage. The fundamentals for the consumption of zinc, the demand for it are very good and also the supply is going to be tighter than people expect.

ALI MOORE: You've now got a board recommendation in your takeover bid for Allegiance Mining and once that deal goes through it will add a nickel to your stable of led and zinc. You do want to diversify, that's the strategy. What's top of the list next?

ANDREW MICHELMORE: We want to diversify in nickel and also copper. We have a number of opportunities we're looking at in both those areas. As you say, very important to get the Allegiance acquisition under our belt, get that into production and at that point we'll be looking at actually going forward with a couple of other acquisitions. But there's a suite of them we have. I think one of the benefits of the market coming back is that people are more realistic about their values and the prices for these companies and in addition, we have $2.2 billion sitting in the bank. So that cash is worth an enormous amount to us in terms of purchasing power.

ALI MOORE: So after Allegiance, how much will you have left in the kitty?

ANDREW MICHELMORE: About $880 million go on Allegiance, we've got $2.2 billion sitting in the kitty that will leave around $1.3 billion.

ALI MOORE: A suite of acquisitions, can you tell us where and what?

ANDREW MICHELMORE: Now we've got nickel in Australia under our belt it obviously opens up opportunities to use that core investment to then move into other countries. With copper at the moment I think we'd like to we'll continue looking in Australia for opportunities. We'd like to grow our portfolio a bit more to get a more diversified base to it before we look at any significant offshore opportunity. But having said that, you never know what happens. These things come up with a sudden position to be able to move and we have to be prepared for that.

ALI MOORE: You obviously, though, have specific projects on your list ready to buy?

ANDREW MICHELMORE: Yes, we do indeed.

ALI MOORE: What are they?

ANDREW MICHELMORE: No, if I told you that the prices of all those opportunities would immediately go up in anticipation of an acquisition, so we sit on it very tightly.

ALI MOORE: But a couple more purchases before the end of the financial year?

ANDREW MICHELMORE: Look, these purchases take quite a bit of time, they take the effort. Also you need to bed down the ones that you've done. It's too easy to take your eye off the target once you've got it and then you don't actually get the benefits out of it you've originally argued for. Our first job will be to bed down the Allegiance acquisition. But obviously at the same time we will be working out how we do the next one, who it is, which are the priorities and when's the appropriate time to move on them.

ALI MOORE: Is the takeover of Allegiance Mining a done deal?

ANDREW MICHELMORE: No, we have a board recommendation announced today and obviously now the offer closes on 7th March. So we have to work now between this point and the 7th of March to ensure we get as many of the shares in as possible.

ALI MOORE: You'd say it's as close as done as it could be?

ANDREW MICHELMORE: We would like to think that, but you never rest on your laurels, you get in and make sure it happens.

ALI MOORE: Andrew Michelmore, thanks for talking to us.

ANDREW MICHELMORE: That's a pleasure Ali, thank you.


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## Nicks (26 February 2008)

Thanks Rusty for that. It was very interesting. I am veryy happy as a shareholder that they are "Going for Growth" (Liberal Party Slogan, 2007).

Seriously that reassures me that they are actually going to turn that money in the kitty into eps accredative projects and aquisitions, rather than just have it sitting there. Though having it sitting there has been a wonderful thing with credit collapsing all around them! Puts them in a very dominating position.


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## kingbrown (27 February 2008)

HI GUYS 
IS IT TRUE SOME BROKERS HAVE JUST PUT A SELL IN FOR ZFX 

PLEASE ADVISE AS TO WHY ??


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## Ashsaege (27 February 2008)

kingbrown said:


> HI GUYS
> IS IT TRUE SOME BROKERS HAVE JUST PUT A SELL IN FOR ZFX
> 
> PLEASE ADVISE AS TO WHY ??




... maybe they are forcing people to sell so that the SP will fall... then the brokers can pick up some bargains!

My e-trader has had a buy recommendation since January. And now that ZFX has got AGM they are starting to diversify, and they are looking into Copper as well.
35c Divies arn't bad either! ZFX has alot of cash, no real debt, and growth. Time to top up i believe!
It would be a major bonus if the price of zinc increases too!


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## mullys (28 February 2008)

ZFX went up today while alot of other stocks were going down.  Pretty good sign considering the market really droped today.  Good volume today as well,  it will be good when it breaks $11.  Is There any other new out there as to why it went up other than buying?


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## Stan 101 (28 February 2008)

maybe it's gone up because people have realised this is basically the same company it was 12 months ago.

Century is not going to last forever, although they have offloaded the smelter and all the potential litigation that goes with owning such a thing and have a wedge of cash to aquire. They have continued to offer a great dividend in the face of the zinc market's turmoil and have a forward plan that does not include heavy debt..

cheers,


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## vishalt (28 February 2008)

Ali Moore is so hot and the best at super-grilling questions yet she doesn't ask stupid dumb bandwagon questions like other standard journos.

Nice interview by her, thanks for posting.


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## treefrog (28 February 2008)

nioka said:


> I guess the directors have been offered a sweetener with executive positions and good salary contracts. *Been expecting this to happen sooner than later.* I have taken a position with MCR as my nickel stock. Sold half my AGM last week for $1.07 and got into MCR, made up the threecents I'll lose out on AGM. Made a fair profit on AGM but still consider the deal was best for ZFX. Now I can sit back and hope the ZFXers have their doomsday predictions fulfilled, the ones where they doubted the production start up date would be this quarter etc. The fact that the takeover looks like being successful means that delays are likely and the picture may not be as good as we were led to believe.




so nioka, you are now saying all your other posts about how we'd all be eating our words and how great AGM are, and we would all see this "in the fullness of time" yarda yarda, were all cra.p?? Knew as much.


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## johnno71 (29 February 2008)

kingbrown said:


> HI GUYS
> IS IT TRUE SOME BROKERS HAVE JUST PUT A SELL IN FOR ZFX
> 
> PLEASE ADVISE AS TO WHY ??




ABN Ambro have down graded zfx to a hold. They did a valuation on agm in December last year just after zfx announced their take over bid. They basically said that if zfx got agm for anything around a $1 it would be a steal. They were comparing zfx's takeover with Xstrata's bid for Jubilee, saying agm was worth over $2. Strange they downgrade zfx after they have just picked up a bargain.


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## nioka (29 February 2008)

treefrog said:


> so nioka, you are now saying all your other posts about how we'd all be eating our words and how great AGM are, and we would all see this "in the fullness of time" yarda yarda, were all cra.p?? Knew as much.



Any thing I said before I still stand by BUT I admit defeat in being able to hold on till production. It is the ZFRers who kept saying the price was too high etc. All has been revealed in the fullness of time. I made a decision that MCR is a better nickel stock for me than ZFX and when I could see that all was lost I cashed AGM and bought MCR. I am allready way ahead as you would see if you check on MCR and I'll wait for ZFX or Extrata to fight over MCR. 
 (Never in my short time on these forums have I see posters as touchy as those on this thread)


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## Egabeava (3 March 2008)

Finally some good news as Oxiana and Zinifex decide to merge. I have been holding on to both these shares for years for that reason. The link to the news  http://www.theaustralian.news.com.au/story/0,25197,23309277-36418,00.html


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## ozrob (3 March 2008)

At long last some good news, they are offering 3.1931 Oxiana shares $3.97 for each Zinifex share which on Fridays close price makes ZFX worth $12.66. I wonder how much above this price they will trade at ???


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## Birdster (3 March 2008)

ozrob said:


> At long last some good news, they are offering 3.1931 Oxiana shares $3.97 for each Zinifex share which on Fridays close price makes ZFX worth $12.66. I wonder how much above this price they will trade at ???




It is good news. But when does the merger actually happen?  Market reaction to anns are unpredictable atm IMO. ie; QBE.

Guess today will tell


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## Metamath (3 March 2008)

(OXIANA AND ZINIFEX TO MERGE TO CREATE A MAJOR DIVERSIFIED MINING COMPANY - Pg 2/12 Para 6: 3 March 2008 )

Zinifex will seek a Court order to convene a Zinifex shareholders’ meeting in May / June 2008, to approve the Scheme. Subject to receiving other necessary Court and other approvals, the merger is expected to be implemented in June / July 2008.


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## fenis (3 March 2008)

Could someone please clarify (for the beginners):

If I own 500 Zinifex shares, does that mean I'll receive 3.1931 x 500 = 1565 Oxiana shares (worth ~$3.68 x 1565 = $5761) for free? Sounds too good to be true.

Or does it mean that Zinifex shares will simply be worth ~$12.66 as mentioned above. How is this calculated?

Many thanks


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## Nicks (3 March 2008)

fenis said:


> Could someone please clarify (for the beginners):
> 
> If I own 500 Zinifex shares, does that mean I'll receive 3.1931 x 500 = 1565 Oxiana shares (worth ~$3.68 x 1565 = $5761) for free? Sounds too good to be true.
> 
> ...




It means Zinfiex shares will be worth 3.1931 x the price of OXR shares at the record date of the planned merger.

So basically you can expect these shares to move in unison now.

(ie you dont get free shares, you get OXR shares in exchange for your ZFX shares)


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## legs (3 March 2008)

Nicks said:


> It means Zinfiex shares will be worth 3.1931 x the price of OXR shares at the record date of the planned merger.
> 
> So basically you can expect these shares to move in unison now.
> 
> (ie you dont get free shares, you get OXR shares in exchange for your ZFX shares)




It means you get 3.1931 oxiana shares for every Zinifex share you hold. You dont get cash or anything else...simply 3.1931 x ZFX shares = Y (name of new company) shares at Oxiana's last price before name change.


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## gfresh (3 March 2008)

How many shares will the new entity have??

If OXR has 1.546bn shares.. and ZFX holders receive: 487M x 3.193 = 1.55bn shares? 

Does this mean there will be 3bn shares, or will the new entity come merge time be 2 x current OXR SP?


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## bergers_n_fries (3 March 2008)

forgive me for maybe asking a silly question but when does this all become official...(as in the merger)

my dilemma is that i bought the stocks around 16ish and obviously am looking to make up as much ground as possible before the official merger and i get given the ox stocks through the merger...

interesting times ahead...

cheers


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## Thrive (3 March 2008)

The next few weeks will be interesting.

What SP premium do you think the board of ZFX would want to recommend a takeover to shareholders 40,50 or 60% making it an expensive takeover for some.

If there was anyone else interested in ZFX this merger proposal has certainly opened the door for them effectively forcing ZFX board to put all offers exceeding the OXR offer to shareholders at much less than typical takeover premiums.

Just not sure if anyone else is interested - Xstrata seems a little distracted at the moment.

This is the best offer OXR could make (without cash) that wouldn't give ZFX shareholders majority holding in the new entity.

Dont get me wrong, OXR good projects and mines in high value metals and ZFX with a few dollars both with good management. I can certainly see some value in the new entity.

Any other offers likely?


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## Gurgler (3 March 2008)

bergers_n_fries said:


> forgive me for maybe asking a silly question but when does this all become official...(as in the merger)
> 
> my dilemma is that i bought the stocks around 16ish and obviously am looking to make up as much ground as possible before the official merger and i get given the ox stocks through the merger...
> 
> ...




July/August!

If you bought at $16, your best bet is to hope for OXR to rise to over $5 so your ZFXers value follows it on a 1:3.193 basis ( 5x3.193 = 15.965) - or do I have that wrong???


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## ozambersand (3 March 2008)

What happens if you hold instalment warrants in Zinifex?

I have some not due till November. I don't want to be forced to offload them earlier at a low price!!!


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## bergers_n_fries (3 March 2008)

so the question remains as to when this becomes official and my shares in zfx become oxr???

im just hoping for as much time as possible for everything to gain ground to make up my losses


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## legs (3 March 2008)

bergers_n_fries said:


> so the question remains as to when this becomes official and my shares in zfx become oxr???
> 
> im just hoping for as much time as possible for everything to gain ground to make up my losses




Your shares wont become OXR they will become a new company. New name, new board, everything. They'll have a new ASX code. You still keep your CEO.


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## uhu (4 March 2008)

Hello, aussie traders, I need your help.

I have OXR and ZFX shares also. 
First, I am very disappointed. 14% (or less, yesterday ZFX share prices went up only 9%) is not a premium. From the July more then 20 AUD peak....(why was it? I don't understand)

Second, I have a question. Should I wait, or not? I can buy my ZFX shares at about 12.20...so, it's less what Oxiana primarly offered.

And, If I won't make the transaction, what will be happened? My ZFX shares will be transformad automatically for OXR shares after ZFX general meeting? Or not?

My broker says no reason to wait, it's better to sell ZFX now than wait. Is it right?

Please help me.


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## Trembling Hand (4 March 2008)

uhu said:


> Second, I have a question. Should I wait, or not? I can buy my ZFX shares at about 12.20...so, it's less what Oxiana primarly offered.
> 
> And, If I won't make the transaction, what will be happened? My ZFX shares will be transformad automatically for OXR shares after ZFX general meeting? Or not?
> 
> ...




Uhu no one can give you specific financial advice on this forum like you have asked for. They maybe able to answer general questions but you are asking Q's that only a Lic. Fin Advisor can answer, like your broker.


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## uhu (4 March 2008)

Trembling Hand said:


> Uhu no one can give you specific financial advice on this forum like you have asked for. They maybe able to answer general questions but you are asking Q's that only a Lic. Fin Advisor can answer, like your broker.





Thank you.
Of course, I dont' wait precisius advices or others from you.

But, what will happen, if I don't do anything?

And, I tried to understand the method of the merger. So, the 12.68 AUD offer was valid at a moment....the price will be always changed, because OXR share prices also chaging...am I right?

So, f.e. if OXR share price will up tomorrow, ZFX share price will follow it. (?)


One more question: I don't know what "Q's" and Lic means...


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## Trembling Hand (4 March 2008)

uhu said:


> One more question: I don't know what "Q's" and Lic means...



I knew I shouldn't have short handed them. 
Q's = Questions
Lic. Fin Advisor = Licensed Financial Advisor


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## Prospector (4 March 2008)

And what will happen to those excellent ZFX dividends I wonder!  The only reason I was hanging on to them really!


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## legs (4 March 2008)

Prospector said:


> And what will happen to those excellent ZFX dividends I wonder!  The only reason I was hanging on to them really!





ZFX CEO said great dividends will continue to be handed out if at all possible. He remains CEO of new company.


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## Nyden (4 March 2008)

legs said:


> ZFX CEO said great dividends will continue to be handed out if at all possible. He remains CEO of new company.




Yet another reason I don't find this merger beneficial to OXR :
Commodity companies need to be more prudent with their earnings; investing back into the company / further developments, especially during these uncertain times. Squandering them back to shareholders may help the SP in the short-term, but not the long


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## legs (4 March 2008)

Nyden said:


> Yet another reason I don't find this merger beneficial to OXR :
> Commodity companies need to be more prudent with their earnings; investing back into the company / further developments, especially during these uncertain times. Squandering them back to shareholders may help the SP in the short-term, but not the long




However, OXR CEO Owen Hegarty is on the new board and will continue pushing his extremely aggressive expansion plans as he has done with OXR to bring it into a leading mid cap producer, he stated this at the conference yesterday morning. Did you all listen? It's here: 

http://www.thomson-webcast.net/au/d...c4&portal_id=214ccbe7ecf926e61db7eb617afc67cf


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## jeffTH (4 March 2008)

legs said:


> ZFX CEO said great dividends will continue to be handed out if at all possible. He remains CEO of new company.




One of my main concerns also.  last 4 dividends OXR = 3,5,4,4 cents, ZFX 70,70,70,35 cents.  Even if you took average of both companies it results in huge discount for ZFX shareholders.  I don't see Andrew Mitchelmore being able to make much difference as CEO, he's only been there 5 minutes and dividend policy is board decision!

Furthermore, ZFX will move in relation to OXR sp rather than zinc price as previously.  I am hoping for an outsider to come in and blow OXR away....


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## Nyden (4 March 2008)

uhu said:


> Thank you.
> Of course, I dont' wait precisius advices or others from you.
> 
> But, what will happen, if I don't do anything?
> ...






Hello Uhu, long time no see!

Yes, the price of ZFX is now tied to the price of OXR; they'll fall/rise pretty much identically at the moment. Now, one could argue that a premium has essentially not been offered : Should OXR fall another 5-10%, ZFX may very well end up back at 10 & below again ... which it may *not* have if not for this merger.

Well, if you don't do anything; my understanding is that your shares will automatically be replaced with OXR shares at the appropriate time; neither company will exist anymore, so there will be no way to keep holding only OXR or ZFX.

Well, your broker may be telling you that there's virtually no chance of a premium being made; & the market seems to feel that way as well (as reflected by ZFX's shareprice); so, I guess there is no logical reason to hold ZFX at this point ... unless you believe they may find something huge in the next few months! As, once again, ZFX is now tied to the SP of OXR, so it doesn't really matter which of the 2 you own, and since you already own both ... 

- However, it usually is better to own the prey, over the predatory ... in this case, ZFX; always the slim chance of a third party


I'm sure many longterm ZFX holders are very disappointed by this, as they'll now have their losses locked in ... I know I regret selling a while back much closer to 10 : Could've saved near on 20%! Oh well ... at least I had the peace of mind over that period of time :


Now, could anyone answer as to what the tax implications are of this? Does this count as a disposal / sale of shares? I would think so, in which case a Capital Gain / Loss would be realised, yes?


Stance; I currently don't hold either of them, but - I will pickup a parcel or 2 when the new company is born, providing things look good by then

Edit;
It still doesn't look as if the market is all that excited about this ... the market is not that far down today, yet these 2 are in the red by nearly 5.3%


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## Prospector (4 March 2008)

Nyden said:


> Now, could anyone answer as to what the tax implications are of this? Does this count as a disposal / sale of shares? I would think so, in which case a Capital Gain / Loss would be realised, yes?




I think that ZFX needs to obtain a special dispensation for this?  And Jeff, sounds like those dividends are going to disappear too.

Quite strange really, a few weeks ago i was going to enter into shares that might be taken over - LHG and OXR were the ones I was looking at, but decided on LHG, which has grown nicely since; seems like I am going to end up with both now.


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## Nicks (4 March 2008)

Prospector said:


> And what will happen to those excellent ZFX dividends I wonder!  The only reason I was hanging on to them really!




Yep pretty disappointed here too. Wasnt really all that worried about the SP, was just happy with the great dividends.


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## Nyden (4 March 2008)

:bekloppt: Goodbye to the "premium"?

Sure looks as if ZFX is going to give back any profit made yesterday ...


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## 3MT (4 March 2008)

this follows an upgrade from 3/4 brokers for both stocks plus fitch ratings stating they will increase ZFX's credit rating as a result of the merger.

goes to show end of the day the hedge funds own the stock market.


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## uhu (4 March 2008)

Hello Nyden,

I will answer to you. but now
1. I have to be hurry because I have to work in one hour
2. I am angry...what was happened? Why did OXR shareholders make this sell-off? If they have wanted to do this, why did they wait? (They could do this sell-off yesterday also.)


I am don't understand this aussie logic...


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## PBH (4 March 2008)

If, as a Zinifex holder, you feel like you've copped the short end of the stick with regards to the merger, dont worry; you're not alone: according to 'FN Arena',  Merrill Lynch, Macquarie and JP Morgan share the same sentiments..

Any predictions on the outcome of the shareholder vote?


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## shinobi346 (4 March 2008)

As a ZFX holder who bought near the recent high (16+ mark) I'm happy to hear about this merger. Its stopped the sp from sliding further and in the long term, it'll form one of the biggest mining companies in Australia. When I bought ZFX I was expecting them to buy/merge with another company soon. It being OXR does not disappoint me. As for dividends... well Century's not going to last forever so we knew the payout had to drop sometime and it already halved even before this merger was announced so it's started already...


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## uhu (5 March 2008)

shinobi346 said:


> As a ZFX holder who bought near the recent high (16+ mark) I'm happy to hear about this merger. Its stopped the sp from sliding further and in the long term, it'll form one of the biggest mining companies in Australia. When I bought ZFX I was expecting them to buy/merge with another company soon. It being OXR does not disappoint me. As for dividends... well Century's not going to last forever so we knew the payout had to drop sometime and it already halved even before this merger was announced so it's started already...




Hi shinobi,

Well, when I started trading in australian market at last summer, I chose ZFX and OXR, because:
- both companies had (have) organic growth and very good menegement
- and, the M&A story

I hoped ZFX would buy OXR.....well, it's the same for me who buy the other, but I am really disappointed now. At last summer the rate between OXR's and ZFX's share prices was about 5:1. And now, 3,2:1.

So, why Zinifex's bosses think this is the correct rate/price? Maybe it would have better wait. For example, OXR's share prices was below 3 AUD one months ago....the rate was 3,5-4: 1.

And, the yetarday large drop... -9 and -10%. Why was it?
a) Oxiana shareholders don't trust in Zinifex's projects?
b) Zinifex shareholders would like to buy another stock?


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## legs (5 March 2008)

Lets clear something up here:
There is no predator, no takeover, no target. 
Its a *MERGER* where Zinifex will end up with Oxiana, more than Oxiana with Zinifex. Look who's the new CEO, look who has the most capital now, watch what they'll call it. They are simply using OXR share price (NOT SHARES) as a valuation to determine how the merged SP of the new company will take value.


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## Nyden (5 March 2008)

legs said:


> Lets clear something up here:
> There is no predator, no takeover, no target.
> Its a *MERGER* where Zinifex will end up with Oxiana, more than Oxiana with Zinifex. Look who's the new CEO, look who has the most capital now, watch what they'll call it. They are simply using OXR share price (NOT SHARES) as a valuation to determine how the merged SP of the new company will take value.





Ahem,



> (Reuters) - Australian miner Oxiana Ltd (OXR.AX: Quote, Profile, Research) launched an agreed A$6.1 billion ($5.7 billion) *takeover offer* for Zinifex Ltd (ZFX.AX: Quote, Profile, Research) on Monday, looking to diversify to benefit from booming global minerals demand.






> Oxiana is offering 3.1931 shares for every Zinifex share, valuing the zinc and lead miner at $6.2 billion.







> The most likely rivals would be Vale of Brazil and Xstrata of Europe, but both are deep in possible merger talks: the big Anglo American group of South Africa is grappling with the impact of mining problems, power shortages and safety issues in its heartland operations, while a couple of other players from Canada and the US would be constrained by the credit crunch from raising the $6 billion cash plus for any bid.





Don't know what it is exactly you're saying legs? But this is a takeover, it's just a friendly one ... but, if a third party were to come along - the directors of ZFX would have a duty to its shareholders to take a better offer - however unlikely that is.


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## legs (5 March 2008)

Nyden said:


> Ahem,
> 
> 
> 
> ...





This is what annoys me...

It is not a takeover, and alot of you people believe what LIES the reports are saying. 

1st (AND KILLER POINT): Where does a takeover ever happen where the targets CEO stays on as CEO and most of the board members stay as well...
lol...Seriously...can't you see that makes it a merger??

2nd: Oxiana isn't offering 3.1931 of its shares...this is what the merged company will offer..3.1931 of OXR's value at a certain time. OXR will not exist post merger, it will be a new company with a new name... UNLIKE A TAKEOVER... 

3rd: The third quote of yours says nothing relevent to this MERGER

4th: It might bring out a third party to make a hostile bid for ZFX or even a friendly one. Nobody denies that.


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## Ashsaege (5 March 2008)

Nyden makes some good points in regards to bad timing for the merger/takeover.
ZFX sp's is now tied to OXR's, and zinc prices will effect the OX - i agree.

Tho the management are onto it... ZFX AGM takeover - diversing into nickel. And they are looking into Copper too. The Ox are also agressive in regards to growth.

Also Michelmore seems quite optimistic in regards to zinc being in strong demand for the year... he might just be trying to boost shareholder's confidence... or he could be correct.

Weaker shareprice and smaller divies in the short term doesnt bother me. Long term growth is where im at. Tho i wouldnt mind 4 Ox shares per ZFX... make up for the lost!


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## roland (5 March 2008)

Zinifex are re-inventing the company -they have done it before - and that proved the management has the ability to do what it takes.  Market sentiment, versus timing aside, a large company like this has an agenda for growth. 

Unfortunately the timing of the processes to growing the business is not going to coincide with shareholders expectations of when events and announcements are made.

Since the SP has dropped so much, it was well expected the dividend value would also drop - at $20 we expected $0.70 biannually, now we are at around $10 - $11 - simple maths would show $0.35 is reasonable.

Broker sentiment is way down - Aegis show a 12 month forecast of $10.55 - this is without factoring AGM and the OXR thing.

Personally I am a little confused with with my valuation of Zinifex hldings since I have never studied Oxiana.

I wonder how either OXR or ZFX holders could be upset with the eventaution (is this a word?) of a much larger company, combining the experiences of 2 x excellent management boards.

So far there is little in the way of positive comments here, I for one see some good future benefits from a consolidation of the resources of OXR and ZFX (and AGM) - we are getting close to having it all - Nickel, Zinc, Gold, Silver, Copper, Lead - not to forget that there is still plenty of cash around for more acquisitions.

Let's ride out the storm and see where we wind up


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## Nyden (6 March 2008)

legs said:


> This is what annoys me...
> 
> It is not a takeover, and alot of you people believe what LIES the reports are saying.
> 
> ...




Obviously OXR is not buying ZFX per se - it is a merger, but; different name, same crap, as it were?

The price ZFX now follows is OXR; making OXR the metaphorical predator here, slim chance for a third party. 

Yes, it would make no sense to give shares, only to take them away, & re-issue new ones : But the new company is not yet formed, one cannot say "3.1 shares of a company that currently has no value"

Or will this new company trade under OXR shares, simply with a name change? I haven't read the specifics.

So, to break it down - it's easier to look at this as a takeover, because it's essentially the same principal. Chance for a third party, one share price now tracking another, what difference is there? Aside from the fact that neither is getting 'bought out' :


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## oldblue (6 March 2008)

Despite the apparent friendliness of the two parties, I see a  chance of a third party ruining the "party" if either OXR or ZFX is attractive enough to it at current prices.
In particular, I don't think it would take much more sweetening to tempt ZFX shareholders to break the engagement, a lot of whom seem lukewarm towards the merger.


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## bvbfan (7 March 2008)

I'm surprized that a lot of you ZFX think the merger screwed you ZFX holders.

Let me ask where you saw growth for ZFX in the next 12-18months, not withstanding AGM.

I don't recall any major projects coming on line until at least 2010 if not later.

The only growth would be from a zinc price increase.

Now you get OXR shares when copper is at record highs, get on just as OXR increases copper production by 100%.

As ZFX holders (believers) may you can tell me what is so attractive about ZFX that we got sold out on the growth.

Only hope that Michelmore keeps paying out high dividends to compensate OXR holders in the future.
Also hope he isn't the same sell out that gave WMR away so cheaply.


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## PBH (7 March 2008)

> Let me ask where you saw growth for ZFX in the next 12-18months, not withstanding AGM.




What do you mean 'not withstanding AGM' ??  ZFX will more than likely be successful in it's takeover bid, and Avebury was already accounted for in ZFX production projections.

Furthermore, ZFX still had a pile of cash left for further acquisitions, which also would have added to short/medium term growth. 



> I don't recall any major projects coming on line until at least 2010 if not later.




See above.



> The only growth would be from a zinc price increase.




Given the major supply disruptions in China, zinc prices look very promising for 2008. Also take nickel production at Avebury into account, and the growth picture actually ends up looking pretty solid.



> Now you get OXR shares when copper is at record highs, get on just as OXR increases copper production by 100%.




Excuse me? We "get" OXR shares?? No we don't - we pay top price for OXR shares, given that despite the general market downturn, they were trading close to alltime highs at the time of the merger/takeover announcement.
Thus this increased copper production, exposure to gold and such have well and truly been paid for. No giveaways here!

On the other side, ZFX shares were sold out virtually at half price, compared to prices a mere 9 months ago.



> Only hope that Michelmore keeps paying out high dividends to compensate OXR holders in the future.




I only hope that OXR lives up to it's much touted, but as of yet unproven, potential, in the hope of seeing some return on investment in the short/medium term in the form of a dividend.

In addition, I also hope that copper and gold prices don't retrace too much from the record levels they were at at the time of merger/takeover. Given that the OXR share price already reflected these record levels, any retrace would really drag down OXR, and thus deliver us poor ZFX holders a double-whammy along with it.


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## oldblue (7 March 2008)

oldblue said:


> Despite the apparent friendliness of the two parties, I see a  chance of a third party ruining the "party" if either OXR or ZFX is attractive enough to it at current prices.
> In particular, I don't think it would take much more sweetening to tempt ZFX shareholders to break the engagement, a lot of whom seem lukewarm towards the merger.





Clearly, some ZFX holders are actively hostile to the proposed merger.
My own view is that the two companies will be a much more attractive, viable investment once they merge their operations to become a significant player in a range of resources, a view that the two boards and managements seem to share. I think we have to trust them on this.



Disc: modest OXR holding.


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## PBH (7 March 2008)

> Clearly, some ZFX holders are actively hostile to the proposed merger.
> 
> My own view is that the two companies will be a much more attractive, viable investment once they merge their operations to become a significant player in a range of resources, a view that the two boards and managements seem to share. I think we have to trust them on this.




Respectfully, I think you're missing the point.
At issue is not whether the merger will be beneficial to both companies, as I think most people (including ZFX holders) agree it is.
The main objection is to the particular terms of the merger, which seem to be skewed towards an undervaluation of ZFX (and accompanying overvaluation of OXR).

Had the proposed share ratio been closer to 1/3.6 rather than the 1/3.19 it currently is, I think you would have found a lot less hostility amongst ZFX holders.

I know that as a OXR holder you're feeling quite happy/smug about things at the moment. But please understand that not all people on the other side of the transaction necessarily feel the same way.


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## rederob (8 March 2008)

PBH said:


> Respectfully, I think you're missing the point.
> At issue is not whether the merger will be beneficial to both companies, as I think most people (including ZFX holders) agree it is.
> The main objection is to the particular terms of the merger, which seem to be skewed towards an undervaluation of ZFX (and accompanying overvaluation of OXR).
> 
> ...



I'm not too sure what the point is?
The merged entity will likely go ahead and holders of either stock can jump ship now or later.
To suggest one is better than the other and that you were on the better one before the merger suggests you also have divined the future of the markets and therefore need not be too concerned either way!
I am a long term holder of both equities, although had taken some profits last year.
I have always held the simple proposition that cashed up, low (or no) debt, unhedged, lower quartile metals producers will prosper more than their peers.
Both companies fit my investment style and my suspicion is that when the US is over its present woes (next year), I will add to my present holdings.  In fact, it was always my intention to reinvest back into OXR what I had recently put into cash (a 3 month term deposit so I couldn't touch it for a while!!!).
Once ZFX has gobbled up AGM, it will effectively have done what OXR achieved when it bought into Golden Grove - ie, value added disproportionate to cost.
The present commodity bull has slumped insignificantly given overall market turmoil, suggesting the next upleg will be very strong, and come off a much higher floor than the analysts ever anticipated.
In the interim, both ZFX and OXR are very profitable operations, and the only issue of concern to me is the extent that dividends will, in the short term, be impacted.  In outyears the merged entity will deliver more strongly than BHP or RIO ever did, and it's for this reason I will maintain a core position from my long term holdings.


----------



## arms (8 March 2008)

Well if one reads the Fin Review today it certainly sounds to me like OXR expect some people not to be to happy with the current deal and they may have to sweeten the deal to get ZFX shareholders to vote the deals exceptance.

One must remember that this probably won't be voted on for many months so pleanty of time for another party to make a better deal, especially if zinc prices move strongly up as many commentators now suggest could well be the case.

One to sit on and wait for everything to unfold.


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## bvbfan (9 March 2008)

What I meant in regard to ZFX and AGM was that without the AGM acquistion ZFX had no growth pipeline until at least 2010+.

I don't mind AGM and it's a good move for ZFX and will probably go through.
But explain outside of the AGM mine what production growth ZFX will have?

I'm talking from the point of view that OXR had defined growth pipeline for 2008-10.

ZFX earliest was Dugald River and maybe some extension of Century Mine life.

Onto commodity prices, yes I think zinc will increase but it will still be 1/3 the price of copper to perhaps 1/2
(So my copper price forecast is $3.50-$4.50/lb whereas zinc I see between $1.25-$1.75 for 2008/9)

As OXR being close to record highs, well the outlook for copper was looking good, the PH earnings were not entirely factored in.
As for ZFX, well the price was half because they lost the earnings from the smelters, the zinc price is down about 50% from highs.

From my calcs, OXR would be earning a profit of around $600-700million and have revenue around 1.2billion which I have posted elsewhere on ASF from 2009
(https://www.aussiestockforums.com/forums/showthread.php?p=250311#post250311)

As for dividends, yes I'd like more but then at a yield on my purchase price around 70% it's not a great concern.

As for paying top price, I don't think Minataur or Agincourt holders would be complaining too loudly now.

Anyway we'll have to see what happens and agree to disagree about the merger.

Maybe the fact that both parties seem to be upset about it means they got the price about right (if you believe the adage about mergers/takeovers)


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## Boggo (11 March 2008)

Looks like there may be some downside to come, $7 though ???

This is the MTPredictor view of ZFX.
OXR will probably fall in sync if this unfolds.


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## sjss (11 March 2008)

hope that will not come ture...
zfx is down hell of lot today...
anyone would guess what will happen tomorrow for us?


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## ans25 (11 March 2008)

I sold out, have had enough of ZFX...lol

but having said that I predict the market will be up somewhat tommorow then down then up....


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## sjss (12 March 2008)

looks ok...

Indicative Price: 10.100 
    Trading Status: Pre Open 

Dow Jones has a big boost in the morning today, 12,156.81  increase 416.66 

all we hope is the zinc price go up..


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## antkey (18 March 2008)

Any suggestion about ZFX, yesterday was $9.90 and today is $9.49, how come more than 40cents down these days.


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## PBH (21 March 2008)

ZFX will continue to be dragged down as OXR retraces from near record highs, to more realistic levels.

Expect $7 to $7.30 shortly.

If Michelmore had given a toss about ZFX shareholder value, he would have merged with OXR whilst at current levels, and not at $4...


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## savtin (21 March 2008)

I think you are dreaming if you think ZFX will get there...........OXR was excellent value at $4.....let alone sub 3's..........they both will move up in due course............but I don't think we will see 7 in front of ZFX share price..............commodities may be out of favour in the short term but in the long term the commodity demand will stay firm and supply side will remain constraint.

ZFX  offers great buying at the moment IMHO.


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## legs (21 March 2008)

savtin said:


> I think you are dreaming if you think ZFX will get there...........OXR was excellent value at $4.....let alone sub 3's..........they both will move up in due course............but I don't think we will see 7 in front of ZFX share price..............commodities may be out of favour in the short term but in the long term the commodity demand will stay firm and supply side will remain constraint.
> 
> ZFX  offers great buying at the moment IMHO.




Expect high 9's on tuesday. Commentators are saying we have hit rock bottom and NYSE up 2.39 percent to end the week at 1,329.51. The Nasdaq Composite Index .IXIC jumped 48.15 points, or 2.18 percent, to close at 2,258.11. 
"This will be the bottom," said Mark Zandi, chief economist and co-founder of Moody's Economy.com. "We got an incredibly aggressive Fed and three to five years from now, we will realize that this was the start of a bottoming process."

Stock investors already have been quick to sniff that out.


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## Garpal Gumnut (21 March 2008)

Boggo said:


> Looks like there may be some downside to come, $7 though ???
> 
> This is the MTPredictor view of ZFX.
> OXR will probably fall in sync if this unfolds.




I have been watching ZFX for some time and rued not getting in at $4-6 before it took off. Since then I've found it expensive. 

With all the bother in the markets it is back on my radar. It has done a 1 2 3 4 down on the wave count and if it continues down a little more will be into consensus technical targets others have noted in different posts. 

It may hold at $8 if it breaks out,  sideways or up, of the recent triangle formation.

It is still in a downtrend though and I will wait until $7 to put any gumnuts into it, unless it trends sideways at $8 for some time, in which case I might consider getting in above $8.

Both charts are weekly. 

The first chart shows the possible down triangle formation. Increasing volume on a down move would be indicative at this stage of a break below $8, and a closer assessment for a buying opportunity.

The second shows the support resistance lines back in mid 2006.

Watch the RSI in the upper panel. If it continues to risse then those who bought recently will have had their decision validated with a price move up.

They sure are interesting times. I never thought I'd get within cooee of getting ZFX at $7-8 

cheers 

gg


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## uhu (27 March 2008)

Hi Nyden,

I am a bit confused. I noticed the moving of OXR's and ZFX's share price is almost the same...but just almoust- so, there is difference. For ex. yesterday ZFX +5,2%, OXR +3,4%. 

So...is this only speculation or there is an other logical answer?



Nyden said:


> Hello Uhu, long time no see!
> 
> Yes, the price of ZFX is now tied to the price of OXR; they'll fall/rise pretty much identically at the moment. Now, one could argue that a premium has essentially not been offered : Should OXR fall another 5-10%, ZFX may very well end up back at 10 & below again ... which it may *not* have if not for this merger.


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## Nyden (27 March 2008)

uhu said:


> Hi Nyden,
> 
> I am a bit confused. I noticed the moving of OXR's and ZFX's share price is almost the same...but just almoust- so, there is difference. For ex. yesterday ZFX +5,2%, OXR +3,4%.
> 
> So...is this only speculation or there is an other logical answer?




I *think* Zinifex shareholders still get their dividend .... which could definitely explain it. More reason to hold ZFX than OXR perhaps

Got more of AGM as well, sentiment could have gotten a boost : Just wild speculation here though!


----------



## golfmos123 (27 March 2008)

I think there are different things at play here than just one against the other.  My guess goes along the following lines...

people are expecting further shocks in the US
this will drive up the price of gold
OXR has gold exposure but ZFX doesn't
but they are now tied together and hence rise and fall together
if you buy ZFX instead of OXR, then you get the gold exposure due to OXR, and you get the divvy as well (if you are quick - notice date is next Tuesday I think)

Just my 2c worth, whatever that is worth.

I hold ZFX (not bought recently though) and have sold out of my OXR position back at 3.80 (thankfully!).


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## vishalt (27 March 2008)

I would buy into the merged entity. ZFX has a lot of exploration potential while OXR has the production power, and together they are basically the perfect mid-tier miner like Teck Cominco.

What's wrong anyway? Aren't ZFX holders tired of seeing their stock have erectile disfunctions each time it hits $10?


----------



## marlow (15 April 2008)

With  regards to new zinifex/oxiana merger ...
Any ideas on what new company name might be ? (If approved).
Care to have a stab?


----------



## oldblue (15 April 2008)

I like the name "Oxiana" 

or  "New Oxiana"

or " Son of Oxiana"

No, on second thoughts, that's too much like "Sons of Gwalia"


----------



## legs (15 April 2008)

marlow said:


> With  regards to new zinifex/oxiana merger ...
> Any ideas on what new company name might be ? (If approved).
> Care to have a stab?




I believe it is going to be the obvious.. OXIFEX

What else could it be? Ziniox, Ziniana, oxizini?


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## Nyden (15 April 2008)

Could be Zinifox, has a lovely ring to it. My gosh, this stock has been volatile lately ... enough to keep me out of it, then again; most stocks have been! Still all cash for me, at least until stability one way or another returns : I want slow gains, or slow losses!


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## marlow (15 April 2008)

With regards to new zinifex/oxiana merger ...
Any ideas on what new company name might be ? (If approved).
Care to have a stab?


son of Michelmore
son of Hegarty!!!!!!!!!!!


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## oldblue (15 April 2008)

Seriously though, these "combo" names (Ziniox, Oxifex, etc ) are a bit crass, aren't they?
When the NZ dairy giant was created a few years ago I thought that " Fonterra", which apparently is made up and means nothing, was a bit ho-hum. But it's caught on, is well recognised and now nobody questions it. I think something similarly original and creative is needed for Oxiana/Zinifex, but don't ask me what!


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## PBH (15 April 2008)

I'm guessing either ZINOX or OXIZIN.

Or maybe something like 'Son of Cyclops', in honour of Michelmore...


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## roland (15 April 2008)

I don't think it will have anything to do with any of the names they have.

Their smelting business was Nyrstar which doesn't sound like anything to do with mining. So I am guessing it will have some 21st century slick name thought up by their marketing and advertsing agency - probably have some type of swoosh logo - or has swoosh logos gone out of fashion????


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## ba229 (15 April 2008)

We could guess at this till the sun comes up.

Anafex

Personally I like CompuGlobalHyperMegaNet but I think it has been taken


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## roland (15 April 2008)

Metallica - mmm, I think that has ben taken already as well. I just hope that they don't put "Resources" at the end. 

I'd be happier if they had a name that was higher in the alpha numerics so it would start the day in the first board


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## oldblue (16 April 2008)

If we're looking at a name that reflects the strengths of the merged company, how about

      Cuzinco

(Assuming it hasn't already been used by someone else.)


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## blehgg (16 April 2008)

Oxiana/Zinifex

Oin - Znfx - OziFix ~

Shows some Heritage too, with the whole Ozi Ozi Ozi ~  

I reckon they gonna start a whole new name too ~ OFX taken??

or even  FOX Resources ~


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## nioka (16 April 2008)

What is in a name. A rose by any other name is but a rose. Better add Allegience in there somewhere while you are at it.


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## 77TRADER77 (28 April 2008)

My observation was Zinc prices went up 3% in last 48 hours and with world Zinc prices a very finite resource , prices should go up significantly in the long term ..well thats my theory anyway. 

I was overloaded in ZFX having bought a bundle at $9-55. Sold some at 10-32kept 2/3 of them.(to buy COK and OSH)
If I ever see anything like that or $9-80 on ZFX Whooshka..Ill pounce like a lion.
Ok so Im a fan.. 
Further I like the new designated General of the OXR ZFX merger. Look what he did with Western Mining (sold to BHP). and..OXR copper prices roarrrr
You need a good man at the helm. 
My most humble opinion only
Merger name suggestion "ZINOX" like it??
Remember Oxiana known affexionately as BIG OX so they should try to retain that bit.


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## roland (28 April 2008)

77TRADER77 said:


> My observation was Zinc prices went up 3% in last 48 hours and with world Zinc prices a very finite resource , prices should go up significantly in the long term ..well thats my theory anyway.
> 
> I was overloaded in ZFX having bought a bundle at $9-55. Sold some at 10-32kept 2/3 of them.(to buy COK and OSH)
> If I ever see anything like that or $9-80 on ZFX Whooshka..Ill pounce like a lion.
> ...





Yeah, I have a ton of ZFX too, sold some at $10.40 from having collected a parcel at $9.90. Had an order in to replace my $9.90 parcel today - but didn't quite get there.

I noticed that the Drake PR today wasn't so great, starting to look like a Zinifex white elephant cum money pit .....

I don't think that there should be a name change at all, either keep Zinifex or Oxiana, both are well known and well respected. This stupid marketing company idea of name changes and all the wasted shareholder funds going to these marketing idiots for logo designs, corporate profile development is not unlike the huge amount of self justified wasted captal that powers our legal representation system


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## anindya_becit (2 May 2008)

just to brush up my understanding ... we the sharholders of Zinifex would get 3.19 shares of the newly merged company for each ZFX share. ami I right? What about the Oxiana shares? For example if I have 100 ZFX shares and 100 Oxiana shares ... we would get a total of 100X3.19 + 100 = 419 shares of the newly merged company.

Ami I right in my understanding?

Thanks


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## oldblue (2 May 2008)

anindya_becit said:


> just to brush up my understanding ... we the sharholders of Zinifex would get 3.19 shares of the newly merged company for each ZFX share. ami I right? What about the Oxiana shares? For example if I have 100 ZFX shares and 100 Oxiana shares ... we would get a total of 100X3.19 + 100 = 419 shares of the newly merged company.
> 
> Ami I right in my understanding?
> 
> Thanks




Yes, that's the deal to be voted on by ZFX shareholders.
OXR shareholders don't get a say in the matter but I guess can sell their shares if they don't like it!


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## anindya_becit (3 May 2008)

When is that voting thing happening? I havent seen any specific date .... if any1 has any idea? 

Thanks


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## oldblue (3 May 2008)

The original announcement said the merger would be voted on in "May/June". I havn't seen any elaboration of this but I think that that timing also got a mention in a recent ORG presentation.


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## anindya_becit (3 May 2008)

hmmmmmm even I knew sometime in May/June. Is that ORG presentation accessible for us ie. Zinifex shareholders?


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## oldblue (3 May 2008)

oldblue said:


> The original announcement said the merger would be voted on in "May/June". I havn't seen any elaboration of this but I think that that timing also got a mention in a recent ORG presentation.




That should have read "OXR", of course!

I'll try to find it again but I'm pretty sure it didn't mention any specific timing. Being an OXR holder but not ZFX, it doesn't really matter to me. ( the precise timing, that is).


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## oldblue (3 May 2008)

oldblue said:


> That should have read "OXR", of course!
> 
> I'll try to find it again but I'm pretty sure it didn't mention any specific timing. Being an OXR holder but not ZFX, it doesn't really matter to me. ( the precise timing, that is).




Yes, only referred to as " May/June ", in the OXR quarterly report for the March quarter, released on 16 April. Can be accessed via the ASX website.


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## ba229 (6 May 2008)

With OZR's closing price at $3.34 and an "equals merge" deal for zfx holders to get 3.1931 per share that means ZFX's closing price should have been $10.66.

Why then did it close at $10.09?

Is ZFX undervalued or is OXR overpriced.

As a holder of both I have never seen this as a good deal for the ZFX side of things (personal opinion).

I know it means ZFX will be diversifying into other metals etc but can't I please get some bloody justice out of the shares being offered. Somewhere closer to 4 per ZFX would see me a happier bit of skirt.


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## Ashsaege (6 May 2008)

ba229 said:


> With OZR's closing price at $3.34 and an "equals merge" deal for zfx holders to get 3.1931 per share that means ZFX's closing price should have been $10.66.
> 
> Why then did it close at $10.09?
> 
> ...




I am a holder of both as well, but I haven't liked this deal for the OX side... the ox is now tied to zinc and the share price has fallen - tho i know there are many different factors contributing to that too.

I would prefer 4 per ZFX too! Though that could push OXR down to $2.50ish


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## uhu (7 May 2008)

Show is going on...

AGM-ZFX-OXR - and now Xstrata?

http://business.theage.com.au/oxiana-surges-on-takeover-speculation/20080507-2bug.html

Well. in my opinion, 5 aud would be the minimum price for the AGM-ZFX-OXR conglomerat....production of nickel and copper will be duplicated in one or one and half year and Zinifex has a lot of projects too.

Have you got more information about the roumor?


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## PBH (9 May 2008)

It could be that Xstrata is interested in Oxiana as a standalone company, and would rather pay the merger-breakoff fee to Zinifex, than to take it on board as part of the package.

This COULD explain the price difference. Can't think of anything else....  (the ZFX dividend payout maybe?)


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## Birdster (16 May 2008)

Does anyone have an idea as to why ZFX is in "Pre Open"? There is only a change in substantial... ann out.

Curious


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## Lukeyz (16 May 2008)

They just made an announcement of a New Zinc Discovery in Tasmania.. Or was it really AGM's find?????

Cheers


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## vishalt (17 May 2008)

Dear shareholders of Oxiana and Zinifex. 

I'm a little boy of a shareholder.

But I want to be part of a dream. 

The dream to create a major diversified mining company that sells Zinc, Copper, Lead, Gold and hopefully Aluminum, Iron Ore and Energy products later on the way. 

This dream is possible through the merger of Zinifox. 

Both their risk profiles will be significantly reduced, just because the specualtors keep saying there will be surplus Zinc doesn't mean they will be right. 

Zinc has rallied to 8% to 1.05/p in just the last two days. 

Now imagine Zinifex and Oxiana together, a major producer with major synergies and a reduced risk profile. 

Oxiana and Zinifex have a fantastic blend of projects coming up: Martabe and Prominent Hill for the mighty Ox. Dugald and Izok for Zinifex. 

In the long-term these projects will rein in heaps of money and the share price will still go up.

Even if the Zinc price stays depressed it will still contribute significant profits and I am sure that both boards will focus-fire on the commodities that are doign well and in my opinion, what analysts say half the time are bull****, Zinc will rally hard at a point because there is still decades of demand from BRIC and other emerging countries.

Be part of the dream folks. 

And the bonus is, Zinifex and Oxiana are so hot together, it'll be Cherry Ripe for Teck Cominco or Freeport McMoran or even Anglo American which doesn't have too much Zinc. 

Can't rule any of these global carnivores out. And what's a "mid-tier" mining company anyway? They all seem to be taken over, I can't spot too many of those around the world, they tend to get eaten!


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## GREENS (18 May 2008)

vishalt said:


> Now imagine Zinifex and Oxiana together, a major producer with major synergies and a reduced risk profile.




Vishalt 

Whilst I agree the merged company will have much greater market power in terms of being a more significant miner I can’t really see how a combined ZinOx will achieve *major* synergies. The companies do not have overlapping operations where costs can be cut and resources pooled or used more efficiently. 

I think it is more of a defensive move from both sides of management in order to stop both companies falling prey to the larger miners and instead combining the organisations to be able to compete with these large mining houses (not the likes of BHP & RIO of course). How will such a company be created, through organic growth with Oxiana’s near term producing projects (Prominent Hill & Martable) and through acquisition with Zinifex’s wards of cash. It is clear by combining the complementing attributes i.e. Oxiana’s growth profile and Zinifex’s acquisition power; they have all that is needed to help catapult them into and subsequently compete with the big league.  

Do not hold either Oxiana or Zinifex but have closely followed both.


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## PBH (20 May 2008)

Forget about major synergies. I'd like to see someone actually try and point out even very minor synergies...  because if they're there, they sure are hard to find.
This reminds me of an interview I saw on Sky Business with Michelmore, right after the merger was announced. I nearly fell of my chair from laughter. It went something like this:
reporter: "what are the synergies achieved by this merger"
Michelmore (feeling a little uneasy about the question): "well.... we'll be merging the administrative departments, the management teams as well as pooling our resources"
reporter (fishing for even the most minor of synergies): "so will any administrative staff be cut as a result of the merger?"
Michelmore: "no, we have great staff who are very valuable blah blah blah...... so no, I don't forsee that happening"

TRANSLATION: "no, there are no synergies whatsoever"

Keep in mind that we are going by the correct and proper meaning of the word 'synergy'. As most people will be aware, merely merging two departments certainly does not fall withing it's meaning.

I also think that the lack of synergies is a large part of the reason the price hasn't received much of a boost subsequent to the merger announcement.

And if the rumor of the Xstrata offer for OXR (sans ZFX) turns out to be true, I certainly won't be crying about it (as a ZFX holder).

I'm not a great believer in increasing the size of a company merely for the sake of exactly that: increasing it's size; even if it does ward off future takeover bids..

And I don't necessarily see 'being in the big league' as a guaranteed recipe for success. 
One does has to ask themselves: are companies successful because they are in the 'big league'...... or are they in the 'big league' because they are successful?

I'll go for option no.2


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## GREENS (20 May 2008)

PBH, I see where you are coming from, but in my opinion there merger was to ward off takeover offers that significantly undervalue the two businesses. Management of both companies believe that there is a lot of value that is currently not derived in the company’s share prices and as a result thought it best to combine the two entities to move forward rather than felling pressured by short sighted shareholders (which most of us are, whether we like to admit it or not) to sell out to a larger counterpart at a significant discount to their future cash earnings generated over the long term. 

Management view on the long term trend in the base metal prices particularly zinc is just one justification of this point.  Both CEO’s particularly Owen Hegarty  believe given the current and continued strength of China’s demand and the potential that India, Brazil, Russia and other East Asian countries have combined with the re-emergence of the US out of its current slump that base metal prices are still in the early to mid stages of a major commodities bull. They would rather combine their activities and compete with the bigger league than be consumed by them at what they believe are basement low prices. 

So as you say while it may seem like a combination to most to just grow and become a much larger entity, in my view management believe they understand the true potential of the resource boom and the potential that each combined company has and have in turn decided that they don’t want to be gobbled up just quite yet. 

Also totally agree with you on the limited synergies if any at all.


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## vishalt (20 May 2008)

Okay that's a good point I suppose, I tried to do some reading on this and all I found was: 

"Grant Samuel said that while merger synergies were not expected to be material, it was likely that some corporate cost reductions would be achieved. It said the cost reductions could be in the order of $20-$30 million a year between the two Melbourne-based companies."

It isn't really that much but maybe more will be realised after the actual merger. 

But anyway synergies or not I am fully supporting this deal because the combined prospects of both companies are just awesome and maybe they can realise more savings down the track. 

Say if Oxiana finds a mine close to Zinifex and they essentially they can both use each other's infrastructure then that's a bonus.


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## uhu (20 May 2008)

Hello my aussie friends,

I have a question about tax of dividend.

In ZFX's website we can read this:
_"Announced a dividend of 35 cents per share, fully franked payable on 21 April 2008. The record date for entitlement to this dividend is 7 April 2008, and the ex–dividend date will be 1 April 2008."_

So, earlier I thought it means I don't have to pay tax after the dividend. "Fully franked" 

But, my broker firm says I have to pay tax, so the tax is deducted.
My broker firm attached something (maybe from an australian firm) to the email, this:

_""Dividends on which corporate taxes have already been paid, are called fully franked or partially franked. If the company has not paid the corporate tax, the dividend is called unfranked. Fully franked dividends are not subject to withholding tax. The unfranked portion of a partially franked payment and unfranked dividends are subject to withholding tax."_


So, do I have to pay tax or my brokerfirm is "a bit creative"?

(I am sorry, my English is not correct and I am not a tax-expert.)


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## senorita (29 May 2008)

What is going on with ZFX and OXR at the moment? Don't know whether to pick up some more whilst the stock is under $10 or not...


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## vishalt (29 May 2008)

senorita said:


> What is going on with ZFX and OXR at the moment? Don't know whether to pick up some more whilst the stock is under $10 or not...



I am!

Oxiana unfortunately had a fire in its Seppon mine today which caused some weakness in the stock. 

**** happens and Oxiana is extremely cheap compared to BHP/Rio IMO.


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## Fung (30 June 2008)

Does anybody know what's going on with ZFX? Is it suspended due to the merge....???? And also any news of it?

Cheers


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## oldblue (30 June 2008)

Fung said:


> Does anybody know what's going on with ZFX? Is it suspended due to the merge....???? And also any news of it?
> 
> Cheers





They are being traded as 

OXRN

Ordinary fully paid deferred ex Zinifex, until such time as legalities are completed.

Closed today at $2-61, up 5c


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## Fung (2 July 2008)

oldblue said:


> They are being traded as
> 
> OXRN
> 
> ...





Thanks thanks  So what's the conversion rates going to be? I mean how many "ZFX" shares as 1 "OXRN" shares?

And I've just found that I've had extra "shares" of OXR. For example: I suppose to have hmm.. say... 20000 shares before and now i have 29610 shares?


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## oldblue (2 July 2008)

Fung said:


> Thanks thanks  So what's the conversion rates going to be? I mean how many "ZFX" shares as 1 "OXRN" shares?
> 
> And I've just found that I've had extra "shares" of OXR. For example: I suppose to have hmm.. say... 20000 shares before and now i have 29610 shares?





You should have this in the paperwork from the company but ZFX holders receive 3.1931 OXR shares for each 1 ZFX share. So a holder of say 1,000 ZFX ends up with 3,193 shares which are currently designated OXRN and will eventually become 3,193 Oz Minerals shares when the new name is adopted.
Us poor old OXR shareholders get 1 OZ Minerals for 1 OXR.

Both OXR and OXRN shares taking a hammering today and down to $2-37. They should both trade at the same price as there is no arbitrage profit to be made, they are effectively the same stock.
I'll be showing some buying interest when the downtrend reverses!


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## oldblue (2 July 2008)

Well, I was wrong about that!
Theoretically, it shouldn't be an arbitrage situation but I see that the 2 stocks managed to finish trading at a 4c difference.
41m OXR traded v 5m OXRN.


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## bvbfan (3 July 2008)

This is turning into Pasminco II and dragging OXR down with it.

No wonder 97% supported the merger.


Thanks


WOOF


Vote no to the OXR resolution 4 to give Owen $10million for destroying $4billion in shareholder value in both companies now


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## Joe Blow (23 July 2008)

After the merger with Oxiana (OXR), Zinifex (ZFX) is now known as Oz Minerals (OZL). Discussion of Oz Minerals (OZL) continues here: https://www.aussiestockforums.com/forums/showthread.php?t=11797


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