# Palladium



## refined silver (7 February 2008)

Well I just found a Platinum thread 5 months back, and no Palladium thread at all!!

Well Palladium has just broken above $400 for the first time in few years is looking strong too.

A couple of background articles -

The Case for Palladium
http://www.kitco.com/ind/balarie/aug042005.html

Platinum - Dark Horse Bright Future
http://www.kitco.com/ind/Barisheff/apr042007.html

Much of what is said about Platinum also applies to Palladium which used to be the more expensive of the two. They are can both be used in catalytic converters, and the high price of Pd a few years back caused the cheaper Pt to be substituted. I think we might see a reversal again, since the prices have reversed.


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## refined silver (9 February 2008)

Palladium is also used for jewellry, in fact in China, Palladium jewellry is more popular than Platinum and world wide the Pd jewellry market is about 60% the size of Pt.


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## Temjin (11 February 2008)

I will add another article to the thread.

*Palladium the Rodney Dangerfield of Metals* 
http://www.marketoracle.net/Article1326.html

My question remain is, Palladium is as much as a commondity and as a "currency to hedge against inflation" as Silver and Platinum, have their prices been artifically surpressed with massive concentrated shorts as well and as much as the silvers? Will need to dig some COT reports to look further.


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## rederob (11 February 2008)

Temjin said:


> I will add another article to the thread.
> 
> *Palladium the Rodney Dangerfield of Metals*
> http://www.marketoracle.net/Article1326.html
> ...




Both palladium and platinum owe much to use in catalytic converters.
If vehicles head down the electric path, then not cat conversion.
Over the next few years, both metals look strong in demand terms.


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## refined silver (11 February 2008)

rederob said:


> Both palladium and platinum owe much to use in catalytic converters.
> If vehicles head down the electric path, then not cat conversion.
> Over the next few years, both metals look strong in demand terms.




The US has not woken up to deisel cars yet, only the traditional deisel trucks. Hence the green cars are the Prius etc. In Europe most of the research is into diesel and for example the Diesel Mini gets >80mpg on the open road, better than the Prius, and also surpisingly beats it on its own turf in the city for mpg, and has exactly the same emissions. Plus of course a significant advantage in performance (and styling )

Palladium and Pt are both mainly used for Cat conversion (about 50% of demand). With Tata motors in India starting making cars for $2,000, and between China and India, the demand for cars (and Cat Con.) looks like heading up despite the price of oil.


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## refined silver (21 February 2008)

Palladium just broke through $500. 

With such a tiny supply - $7-8moz/year, which is 1/10 of gold mine supply, and with most coming from South Africa which has long-term power supply problems, with Russia as next biggest supplier, those who need Palladium are going to have to pay for it.


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## Temjin (22 February 2008)

I'm drolling at my simulated account having brought several contracts of palladium at $414...sign..hahah


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## projack (25 October 2008)

Seems like the persicus metal market getting too much distorted between paper and physical price. You have to pay premiums on all the persicus metals, but nothing like palladium. 
I used to buy palladium bullions from a US company Southern Coins http://www.scpm.com/goldsilverbullion.php
and used to pay a small reasonable premiums on the spot price.  These days the premium is nearly double the spot price. If this is not market manipulation then what is it? The distortion here is getting ridicules, nothing to do with reality.


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## Garpal Gumnut (25 October 2008)

projack said:


> Seems like the persicus metal market getting too much distorted between paper and physical price. You have to pay premiums on all the persicus metals, but nothing like palladium.
> I used to buy palladium bullions from a US company Southern Coins http://www.scpm.com/goldsilverbullion.php
> and used to paid a small reasonable premiums on the spot price.  These days the premium is nearly double the spot price. If this is not market manipulation then what is it? The distortion here is getting ridicules, nothing to do with reality.




Interesting, what is the best play on palladium. excuse the pun.

gg


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## projack (25 October 2008)

Probably the best paly is to try get the real stuff close to the spot price.
In 2006 when the spot price was $250 I paid $270. Now the spot price is in the $160s and the same seller wants $320.


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## projack (31 October 2008)

Tough question. These are unprecedented times. Surely, a widening between physical price and paper price reads like bold billboard graffiti. That invites a queer arbitrage, to buy in one location and sell in another, of course practiced only by the privileged insider.


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## sinner (1 November 2008)

Unattributed plagiarism is unappreciated.

"Surely, a widening between physical price and paper price reads like bold billboard graffiti. That invites a queer arbitrage, to buy in one location and sell in another, of course practiced only by the privileged insiders like Goldman Sachs and JPMorgan."

-Jim Willie


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## 24 Karat (5 June 2010)

Anyone got any ideas on the spread for buying physical palladium?  The only type I've come across are the Pamp Suisse bars.  Are these OK?

I've read the articles posted and it seems that the bulk of palladium is used in the automobile industry.  With the push for greener cars, wouldn't this decrease the demand for palladium (and platinum) and make it cheaper?


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## Ann (18 January 2019)

rederob said:


> Both palladium and platinum owe much to use in catalytic converters.
> If vehicles head down the electric path, then not cat conversion.
> Over the next few years, both metals look strong in demand terms.



I have pulled this thread up with a very prophetic comment from Rederob back in 2008.
_
*The Uses of Palladium*
The motor industry uses up most of the palladium produced in the world today with the manufacturing of catalytic converters that convert harmful gases emitted by vehicle engines such as nitrogen dioxide, carbon monoxide and hydrocarbons into less-harmful substances such as water vapour, carbon dioxide and nitrogen. Other uses for palladium include the following:
- Blood sugar testing strips
- Dentistry
- Watch making
- Jewellery
- Medicine
- Purification of hydrogen
- Electronics
- Fuel cells that combine hydrogen and oxygen to produce water, heat and electricity
- Aircraft engine spark plugs
- Surgical instruments
- Electrical contacts
- Professional transverse flutes
- Bullion value with ISO currency codes of 964 and XPD that places it alongside only three other metals with similar codes, these being; platinum, silver and gold.
- In soldering materials and plating of electronic components.
- Palladium chloride was once used to treat tuberculosis but it came with considerable side effects and was eventually replaced by more effective treatment.
http://mininglink.com.au/natural-resource/palladium
_
*Palladium Reaches Another Record as JPMorgan Sees More Upside*
*By *
*Rupert Rowling*
* and *
*Marvin G Perez*

* January 17, 2019, 10:48 PM GMT+11 Updated on January 18, 2019, 6:09 AM GMT+11*
Palladium held gains after rocketing through $1,400 an ounce for the first time, extending its gravity-defying rally even amid signs that global vehicle sales are slowing.

The precious metal, primarily used in the auto industry for catalytic converters, has surged more than 60 percent since the middle of August. The bull run has been driven by an acute shortage of immediate supply as car manufacturers scramble to get a hold of the metal to meet more stringent emission controls.
https://www.bloomberg.com//news/art...-as-breakneck-rally-continues?srnd=markets-vp


So far I can only find one Australian company who has any sort of interest in Palladium, Panoramic Resources (PAN) with their Panton PGM project. https://panoramicresources.com/panton-pgm-project/




Ann said:


> Then there is the other scenario, the new gold is Palladium. It is also nudging $US 1300 I bet it breaks through $1300 before gold unless Platinum becomes the cheaper substitute. Both Palladium and Platinum are components in EVs unlike gold which is pretty much just a bling thing. You just have to love this stuff! Spins my wheels.



That was a recent quote of mine from the Gold thread, sure enough, Palladium blasted through the $1300 level no worries.

....and a chart.


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## rederob (19 January 2019)

Ann said:


> I have pulled this thread up with a very prophetic comment from Rederob back in 2008.
> _
> *The Uses of Palladium*
> The motor industry uses up most of the palladium produced in the world today with the manufacturing of catalytic converters that convert harmful gases emitted by vehicle engines such as nitrogen dioxide, carbon monoxide and hydrocarbons into less-harmful substances such as water vapour, carbon dioxide and nitrogen. Other uses for palladium include the following:
> ...



Palladium is mostly a byproduct metal so I don't know of Oz stocks that will get leg up from the price spike.  Panoramic have Panton and Thunder Bay PGM resources available but neither is operational.
About 80% of the market is in auto and electronics.  I expect auto makers will prefer platinum now that palladium is overpriced.  It takes time to adapt so I reckon high prices could stay for a few more months.
Pundits are suggesting a big pullback. Looking ahead at price expectations for 2019, firms polled by FocusEconomics estimate that the average palladium price next year will be US$1050. The most bullish forecast for the year comes from Citigroup Global Markets, which is calling for a price of US$1175; meanwhile, Liberum Capital is the most bearish with a forecast of US$941.


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## Ann (19 January 2019)

rederob said:


> Palladium is mostly a byproduct metal so I don't know of Oz stocks that will get leg up from the price spike.  Panoramic have Panton and Thunder Bay PGM resources available but neither is operational.
> About 80% of the market is in auto and electronics.  I expect auto makers will prefer platinum now that palladium is overpriced.  It takes time to adapt so I reckon high prices could stay for a few more months.
> Pundits are suggesting a big pullback. Looking ahead at price expectations for 2019, firms polled by FocusEconomics estimate that the average palladium price next year will be US$1050. The most bullish forecast for the year comes from Citigroup Global Markets, which is calling for a price of US$1175; meanwhile, Liberum Capital is the most bearish with a forecast of US$941.




Thank you very much Rob, that is very interesting. Do we have any platinum producers you could suggest? Looking at the Platinum chart, it appears to have been falling since 2011. Although it may have reached a floor at around its current $800 level.  In your opinion why would Palladium have taken off as it has, leaving Platinum languishing? Supply/availability/speculators?


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## rederob (19 January 2019)

Ann said:


> Thank you very much Rob, that is very interesting. Do we have any platinum producers you could suggest? Looking at the Platinum chart, it appears to have been falling since 2011. Although it may have reached a floor at around its current $800 level.  In your opinion why would Palladium have taken off as it has, leaving Platinum languishing? Supply/availability/speculators?



Panoramic has PGM (palladium & platinum) resources, but who else has I do not know.
I recall that some years back platinum priced itself out of catalytic converters, and palladium crept in to replace it.  Looks like a mirror reversal is now going to occur.



Speaking of which, I cannot reverse the dates and overlay on your palladium chart of 5 years ago, but their respective prices would almost be the same if I could.
If I were a betting man then I think a reasonable punt would be for both metals to consolidate under and around $1000.
(By the way, from what I have gathered it has been the rush to clean up vehicle emissions that put palladium into backwardation.  That will unwind as the year stretches out.)


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## Ann (19 January 2019)

rederob said:


> Panoramic has PGM (palladium & platinum) resources, but who else has I do not know.
> I recall that some years back platinum priced itself out of catalytic converters, and palladium crept in to replace it.  Looks like a mirror reversal is now going to occur.
> 
> 
> ...




Awesome, thanks Rob! You have inspired me to see if I can do a comparison of Palladium with Platinum on IC charts. I think there is a way but it is not something I have ever needed to do before. I will leave it until tomorrow. I am getting a bit tired tonight.


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## debtfree (20 January 2019)

Hi @Ann ,
Let's say you have a watchlist that includes Palladium and Platinum.
1 - Bring up the chart of Palladium in I/C
2 - Go to File - Select New Project - Name it let's say, *Compare Palladium* - Click OK
3 - Go to Indicators - Go to Price Comparison - Go down to Watchlists - Go to the Watchlist that contains Platinum - Select Platinum - Press the >> to add it to the chart
That should do it
All done

Hope this helps


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## Ann (20 January 2019)

debtfree said:


> Hi @Ann ,
> Let's say you have a watchlist that includes Palladium and Platinum.
> 1 - Bring up the chart of Palladium in I/C
> 2 - Go to File - Select New Project - Name it let's say, *Compare Palladium* - Click OK
> ...




Thank you debtfree, I just saw your suggestion now, I managed to wrangle IC into submission this time but will need to review how to do it again, so eventually your advice will become a great help.

This is the comparison chart for Palladium and Platinum from 1995 on a daily basis. I have drawn some support and resistance lines just to see what I can learn from a duel comparison, it may offer some interesting insights I had never known about before. I get pretty excited when I find something new on a chart to watch. Thanks for the challenge Rob.


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## Ann (26 February 2019)

*Palladium hits new high amid strike threat*
_Palladium hit a new record high overnight as the threat of strikes in the South African mining industry raised fresh concerns about a supply deficit for the metal, while gold held steady as the US dollar slipped on signs of a US-China trade deal.

Palladium hit a peak of $US1,536.50 per ounce, and was up 2.5 per cent at $US1,534.50, with the autocatalyst metal having soared more than 80 per cent since mid-August on a sustained supply shortage.

At least 15 mining firms in South Africa, home to the world's biggest platinum group metals deposits accounting for over 90 per cent of global output, have received notices of strikes next week in support of colleagues at Sibanye-Stillwater who downed tools over wages and job cuts.

"The fundamental issue with palladium is any strike will drive prices through the roof because there is a shortfall with normal production, so any collapse of production will support prices," said Miguel Perez-Santalla, vice president of Heraeus Metal Management in New York. More...._


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## Ann (14 March 2019)

*Fiat Recall Leaves Palladium Buyers Bracing for ‘Supply Shock’*
_
Fiat Chrysler Automobiles NV’s recall of almost 900,0000 gasoline-fueled vehicles could spur additional demand for the palladium market that’s already reeling from shortages.

Replacing the catalytic converters in these vehicles would require an additional 77,000 ounces of palladium, said Miguel Perez-Santalla, sales and marketing manager at refiner Heraeus Metals New York LLC. Prices of the metal that’s used to curb greenhouse gas emissions from vehicles have been climbing to records this year as producers struggle to keep up with demand.


“This eventually will be a bit of a supply shock,” said Maxwell Gold, director of investment strategy at Aberdeen Standard Investments, which oversees $736 billion. “Overall, this does paint a very positive picture of just growing emission standards globally, particularly in the U.S. for palladium and gasoline engines.” More..._


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## barney (14 March 2019)

rederob said:


> Panoramic has PGM (palladium & platinum) resources, *but who else has I do not know*.




Not trying to cross advertise my Stocks …… but speaking of Platinum and Palladium …

This morning I posted up a link to Professor Ken Collerson talking about the *AMG* tenements in Cloncurry. (See AMG thread if interested)

Basically he stated that the Palladium and Platinum surface samples he collected around the "Golden Mile" tenements at Mt Freda have the highest levels he has ever seen …..  I hold AMG so am obviously interested when they make those kind of statements!

As @refined silver mention above, Africa and Russia are the main suppliers of the metals so it would be a huge boon for any Aussie Co to find something substantial.


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## Miner (14 March 2019)

http://www.miningfeeds.com/palladium-mining-report-all-countries
https://www.zimplats.com/about-us/history/
https://www.asx.com.au/asx/share-price-research/company/ZIM
https://www.asx.com.au/asxpdf/20190131/pdf/4426r8f9yv8w81.pdf
(Do not hold)
Palladium


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## barney (15 March 2019)

Miner said:


> http://www.miningfeeds.com/palladium-mining-report-all-countries
> https://www.zimplats.com/about-us/history/
> https://www.asx.com.au/asx/share-price-research/company/ZIM
> https://www.asx.com.au/asxpdf/20190131/pdf/4426r8f9yv8w81.pdf
> ...




Thanks for that Miner. 

The Market Depth on ZIM looks pretty crazy … then I read that "Impala Platinum BV" owns 87% of the company …… MD could be a tad illiquid


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## Miner (15 March 2019)

barney said:


> Thanks for that Miner.
> 
> The Market Depth on ZIM looks pretty crazy … then I read that "Impala Platinum BV" owns 87% of the company …… MD could be a tad illiquid



You are welcome Barney .
Yes, the volume of sales is rather insignificant and inconsistent with rising prices.


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## Ann (23 March 2019)

I found an ETF for physical Palladium. It is not listed in the AFR that I could find. Just came across it by accident when I was screening for stocks. It was launched in 2008. Well kept secret I guess, did anyone know about this? Am I the last to know? 

ETPMPD - ETFS Physical Palladium


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## Miner (23 March 2019)

Ann said:


> I found an ETF for physical Palladium. It is not listed in the AFR that I could find. Just came across it by accident when I was screening for stocks. It was launched in 2008. Well kept secret I guess, did anyone know about this? Am I the last to know?
> 
> ETPMPD - ETFS Physical Palladium
> 
> ...



Good research Ann
I was unaware of this and now thanks for your clue. It appears in one year ETPMPD has gone up almost double. I did not follow up Palladium until stepped into this thread.https://www.etfsecurities.com.au/product/etpmpd
The fund size is only $1.9 M. So how much variation it can make on market but it did whatsoever for small purcahsers for sure.
Whosoever had this hidden low volume stock, definitely have done pretty well.


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## Ann (28 March 2019)

Palladium just took a tumble overnight. It may be related to this...

_The chief executive of Anglo-American says the rapid rise in the price of palladium is a “bubble” but prices will stay high until carmakers begin substituting the metal in their catalysts.


As carmakers launch new models they may consider replacing palladium with the cheaper precious metal platinum in their catalytic converters, Mark Cutifani told the Financial Times Commodities Global Summit. 


“It is a bubble but . . . as new models get developed in the auto industry, adjustments will take place and maybe there will be some substitution there,” Mr Cutifani said. “Palladium will stick around these sorts of levels for a while because the cost of changing is probably not worth the change. But over time it will change and platinum will come roaring back.” More...


_


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## Ann (1 April 2019)

Bit of a fall from grace for the ETFs Physical Palladium




....and the daily Palladium price with a bit of a bounce at the close from last week.


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## Ann (30 April 2019)

*Palladium Sees Wildest Price Swings Since 2015*

_Palladium futures tumbled, spurring the wildest price swings since late 2015 as investors turn sour on the precious metal.

The commodity used mostly in auto catalysts has been a profitable trade as supply shortages boosted prices of near-term contracts. That gave investors the incentive to sell futures closer to delivery and buy those that are further along the curve as producers struggle to meet demand from carmakers. That incentive has narrowed this year as supply concerns ease. More.._


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## ReeferMadness (12 November 2019)

That’s great but if you bought the dip there, you would be up about 45% 6 months later...

Like the correction yesterday.


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## Dona Ferentes (20 January 2020)

On Friday, spot palladium was 6.9 per cent higher at $US2,472.80 per ounce having earlier surged past the $US2,500 an ounce level to hit a record peak of $US2,537.06. The auto-catalyst metal was also pacing for its best week since December 2001, surging more than 16 per cent.

“This is a structural deficit market that has been brewing for years and we don’t really see an increase in supply on the horizon to quell that,” said Ryan McKay, a commodity strategist at TD Securities.

Palladium has constantly been breaking records, rising more than 50 per cent last year, on a sustained supply squeeze and expectations for stricter emission laws across the globe.


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## fergee (20 January 2020)

Dona Ferentes said:


> On Friday, spot palladium was 6.9 per cent higher at $US2,472.80 per ounce having earlier surged past the $US2,500 an ounce level to hit a record peak of $US2,537.06. The auto-catalyst metal was also pacing for its best week since December 2001, surging more than 16 per cent.
> 
> “This is a structural deficit market that has been brewing for years and we don’t really see an increase in supply on the horizon to quell that,” said Ryan McKay, a commodity strategist at TD Securities.
> 
> Palladium has constantly been breaking records, rising more than 50 per cent last year, on a sustained supply squeeze and expectations for stricter emission laws across the globe.



Platinum has now broken out over the $1000 resistance as well. I have heard a bit of talk about platinum being substituted for palladium but the cost to change over not currently being worth it compared to the very small cost, in terms of Palladium per car, that goes into catalytic converters.


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## Dona Ferentes (23 January 2020)

Sprott blog:
https://www.sprottmoney.com/Blog/the-magic-palladium-bullet-in-2020.html


> ...this move in palladium is NOT being "driven by speculators" who are "rushing to profit" and "blowing a bubble"...





> ..And what might that chart [see link] be telling you? That the LBMA/COMEX pricing scheme for palladium may be on the verge of collapse. And if the pricing scheme for palladium collapses, how long might it be before gold and silver investors worldwide—of whom 99% trust The Banks to hold their unallocated accounts and custody their metal—begin to doubt the ability of The Banks to fulfill their promises of delivery?


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## Joules MM1 (27 May 2020)

palladium is on a decent sell here, sentiment has been overtly skewed to bids

stop 2052's front  month con


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## Joules MM1 (4 June 2020)

not a lot has changed since same time last week, retail front month players hover in the 80%+ long region while price has chopped around
https://www.tradingview.com/x/fApR0duV/


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## Joules MM1 (5 June 2020)

https://www.tradingview.com/x/x9477TD0/

this mornings sell went well until it hit a 1:1 ratio
..strong guideline is to never hang onto a position when a construct screams youre wrong


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## Joules MM1 (9 June 2020)

breaks the channel
https://www.tradingview.com/x/zbYxmKXR/


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## Joules MM1 (9 June 2020)

structural  move, relative size, doesnt discount a move further north, does allow that the bounce is over but i suspect a play within a play, zonal stuff, small size pos with risk defined, target toward 1837 front month, breaking that levels requires adding to the sell if the sell itself becomes impulsive


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## Joules MM1 (19 June 2020)

slow sell has not stopped buy-the-dip retailers (cfd's at 85% long)
train is leaving the station ... https://www.tradingview.com/x/WnSNQJqT/


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## Joules MM1 (19 March 2021)

front month contract cfd 
$pal palladium had all the requirements for  a blow off
would need to fall below 2244 to confirm


			https://www.tradingview.com/x/Z4zo8RQx/


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## frugal.rock (23 April 2021)

Interesting. Price getting up there.
March to June quarter results should be good for producers if prices can hold up.
Any stocks likely to get special or raised dividends out of this?


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## Joules MM1 (23 April 2021)

frugal.rock said:


> Interesting. Price getting up there.
> March to June quarter results should be good for producers if prices can hold up.
> Any stocks likely to get special or raised dividends out of this?



would like to see 3k just get cracked for a rotation need a long history to see how long this hike has been travelling
plenty of momo currently from a tawdry mashup last cupla months ..err, year !

blow it off gang you can do it.....


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## Joules MM1 (5 May 2021)

with $xauusd issuing sell signals, $PA $palladium is likely to have pofit taking at 3k level too
STO with stop at largest top as its so close (STO 2958 BTC 3009 )


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## Joules MM1 (21 May 2021)

how say you @frugal.rock  ....have couple of sells on PA (cfd front month contract $palladium)

looks exhausted, nice steps down from the high .....fake high, the churn up is a mess

anyways, the risk is the altime so it's good  (STO 2860 + 2850)


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## Joules MM1 (25 May 2021)

since (what i see as a fake out new altime high) we have had 3 swings down, two against......

the two against the current downswing went 89% lift and 71% lift
if the current shift in liquidiy through the cfd lens of (small amount of) players is true we are now lifting "against" at 2714
in the front month contract, so, suggest watch the % price can go "against" the current larger downswing to see if a lessoning
of the 3rd lift adds to the idea the (fake) most recent altime high is over and we are in short term downtrend


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## Joules MM1 (27 May 2021)

Joules MM1 said:


> the % price can go "against" the current larger downswing to see if a lessoning
> of the 3rd lift adds to the idea ...recent altime high is over and we are in short term downtrend











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almost at the decision line/time at least for short-term bulls








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## Joules MM1 (3 June 2021)

lower to go on this round








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usually at this point i waffle about "the bulls have all the work to do to prove their case"
but this has not gone the way i thought so far seems it's all the work to be done by me to prove the sell case

interim, yeah, lower to go, but much to do to prove the bear resumes after a fake altime high


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## frugal.rock (3 June 2021)

Joules MM1 said:


> how say you @frugal.rock ....have couple of sells on PA (cfd front month contract $palladium)



Cob, I'm no use to you.
I have nfi about futures.

Would love your thoughts over in the OOO thread about potential earnings for Jan to June this year.
3 month contracts forward or something...I dunno.


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## Joules MM1 (8 June 2021)

while it looks like a chicken walked over my chart the numbers suggest a tiny tiny theme is mapping out
i'll stick to the sell side with a very tight margin for error


			https://s3.tradingview.com/snapshots/i/iTjN7HdR.png


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## Joules MM1 (8 June 2021)

$pa palladium keeps offering  clues that bids have met stepping resistance,
a step down resistance sets above, several attempts to break above that step see price print a new step
the auction is hinting we have to move lower for bids to encounter buyers who think theyre in a value zone worth bidding

2722  the next step down?









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freudian(?), "very busy auction here" should read - referring to the circle a lot of transactions took place, a lot of auction "chatter"


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## Joules MM1 (8 June 2021)

the value of alerts, the hinting is over, the momentum trade is in


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## Joules MM1 (10 June 2021)

excruciating slow sell, still we have a series of lower lows and all the lifts have 
adhered nicely to ratios so no need to close anything (yet)
interesting that despite being thinly traded, which exaggerates when players swing liquidity either side, 
when we were headed up in what i call the fake new altime high, players were clearly shifting from BTO to STO
yet since that altime high that swing has diminished to almost static with overwhelming support from bids
what does that say about the few players that are in the game? probably that theyre buying the discounted dip
..which, so far, keeps offering further discounts









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## Joules MM1 (12 June 2021)

#observation #backdrop #COT nice plaid suit!


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## Joules MM1 (14 June 2021)

2722 level back under the microscope, but like blades of grass having a fist fight, both retail and "top" clients
cfd remain staunchly long (80% and 88%) every step down unlike swapping seats in the final chop towards the fake altime high

risk appears to be 2810 for STO's, as price bounces to clear markers within the prior swingdown (relative basis), step by step, quietly lower
comfortable buying levels for those who like buy comfortable things








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## Joules MM1 (17 June 2021)

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2841 now the uncle level at which point i'll be forced to close this long-winded sell
structure keeps printing steps and now steps (hooks) within, still adhering to tight ratios
all providing ongoing context
one noticeable difference in the cfd are the top traders who finally budged from being 94% long yesterday to 
55% long after last nights spike (hook), that's not the # of players rather the liquidity placement (55% BTO x 45% STO)


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## Joules MM1 (17 June 2021)

both xauusd and palladium making more noise than an aggressive flog reporters at a Victorian covid presser









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bidders bail adding to the sell


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## Joules MM1 (18 June 2021)

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i uncluttered the chart  (above) now the work-up is complete and we have a clean near-term trend
currently going thru a relief bounce

looking at the bigger picture for congestion in the prior vpoc zone 2440 starting area:








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## Joules MM1 (29 June 2021)

keeping the labels even tho price has limped higher, given all the previous retracements the 61.8 to 66% seems reasonable
yet $pa has not gone todays dash for cash with $xauusd

...the day is young








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getting back thru 2800 would extract the STO completely, not like it's running out of time, with thin trade the 
construct offers conflicting set-ups, so we may get there and fall over, picture is clear enough todate, sellside


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## Joules MM1 (7 July 2021)

price has extended in a tight channel, i think we are stretched here, in the sell again
a confirmation on a break of the channel, 








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stop 2886


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## Joules MM1 (7 July 2021)

firmly out of the channel https://www.tradingview.com/x/Y8OVwr04/

there's a  long way to go before calling anything significant about trend, directly below the base of the larger upwards channel
see 2400, there's a thick band of vpoc "support" starts 2470's,  plenty of swings, we're halfway within the channel, this morning
currently a healthy snap back

sells hold for mine until a rotation signal appears








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## Joules MM1 (8 July 2021)

same distribution signal as xauusd
not big, maybe coincidental, same players balancing books maybe
employment #'s due








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adds to my sells


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## Joules MM1 (8 July 2021)

channellists revolt yadda yadda











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## Joules MM1 (9 July 2021)

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since the high price has met same-stage retracement ratios
we are out of a minor channel
sellside suits mine todate unless 2853's get snapped


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## Joules MM1 (16 July 2021)

$pa $palladium provided a very clean set of ratios this morning at the low
also providing clear risk level, now with the bid
this afternoon aest the auction was very busy 










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## barney (16 July 2021)

Thanks for the ongoing commentary Mr @Joules MM1 

I don't trade Palladium, but i appreciate the effort


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## Joules MM1 (16 July 2021)

barney said:


> Thanks for the ongoing commentary Mr @Joules MM1
> 
> I don't trade Palladium, but i appreciate the effort



price of education, took me out of the longs back into sells 
slow dump unfolding


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## Joules MM1 (17 July 2021)

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#set-up
in terms of risk, this was a very good set-up in that structurally there are 3 different technical aspects:
1 the repetition of price reaching and being rejected at bounce-high ratios (typically 76.4, 78.6 and 88.6)
2 broken channel with failed  attempt to re-enter
3 breakdown of a high win-rate triangle (a break out and thrust in the wrong direction v. expectation)
i have not labelled the triangle (as applicable in the EWP regime) simply drawing the boundaries in this instance is sufficient

"a very busy auction" = claxon

of course i did take a long expecting the triangle to resolve with a small higher high
and that higher high would been the final move that would have disrupted the series of ratios
....structurally, given the auction sudden turnover  we should consider 
the larger upwards channel base from Aug 2018 is about to be tested, 
any break and a failed back test is likely to attract a swift transaction








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## finicky (18 July 2021)

Not going to reflect well in the Chalice Mining (CHN) chart on Monday I suspect


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## Joules MM1 (21 July 2021)

STO closed, we do not appear to want to test the lower boundary of the larger upwards channel
strangely tho as the sentiment is (71% BTO top clients, 80% BTO retail cfd's)
...a tad bullish for the bottom of a sell phase

pending STO at 2558
keeping inline with previous ratios price would need to ascend the 88.6% 2837's to confirm there's a new altime coming


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## Joules MM1 (22 July 2021)

when central banks roamed the earth (Neo-Bankasaurusscoming)
and no one knew the definition of fear (Anthro-Herded)......


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## Joules MM1 (27 July 2021)

slumping, back with the offer this morning, protecting 2731 front month
a lot m/a crossover trades will be getting applied hourly/daily basis, 
$xauusd also slumping
PM's lacking bids price accepting lower offers


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## Joules MM1 (4 August 2021)

lots of happy faces hitting the buy button in a place that would normally show fear
..still liking the sellside based on above posts 
using the "position value and number of clients" is harder to read with thin trade, there's enough consistency to suggest


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## Joules MM1 (7 August 2021)

buyers are keen but simply being sold into
this conduct looks familiar across a lot of commods currently








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## Joules MM1 (7 August 2021)

Joules MM1 said:


> buyers are keen but simply being sold into
> this conduct looks familiar across a lot of commods currently
> 
> 
> ...



closer look


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## Joules MM1 (17 August 2021)

PA1 continuous contract




__





						Potential Breakout Alerts!
					

SP and volume starting to warm up. Held and in monthly comp. Disclosed.




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## Joules MM1 (20 August 2021)

scratched my head, invented dandruff! (great name for a jazz trio)

at the bottom of a decent % sell-down, is it not odd, sentiment is so bullish ?



"...it's the wrong trousers, Gromit" ?


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## Joules MM1 (22 August 2021)

for the sake of follow-thru, i'll keep posting in this, 
there has been no reason to change the sell perspective
each step along the way has better suited the sell side, including all the countertrent moves which, 
todate, have been measured,
meaning, they respected ratios, swings against the decline have only once had an impulsive construct, 
a last gasp to get the uptrend back on

the sentiment on friday ran at 80-90% buyside, meaning, a lot butchers gloves were also purchased (= 10 to 20% sell to open)

saturday morning price closed right on an intermediate channel floor, odds of a gap-thru are good, but, games being games we could find a
rip north to test commitment, likely friday sellers withdraw and ask for higher prices, some covering and more BTFD from retail

3 charts: close up, 4 hourly, daily

15m  https://www.tradingview.com/x/Nyyy4VBl/

240min https://www.tradingview.com/x/RJ2NeiXV/

24hr https://www.tradingview.com/x/RF3TbxLO/


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## Joules MM1 (31 August 2021)

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Julian

@TraderJazzHands
·
11h

palladium has kept a tidy impulse leg up since hitting the minor channel floor, respected ratios prvious attempts to re-ascend, walking thru them now would offer targets above 4k ...with the bid ...


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## Joules MM1 (7 September 2021)

$pa cfd's ran 90% buy to open this arvo
not looking the goods here tho, after hitting the minor channel floor August 21st the bounce has been meowing








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## Joules MM1 (8 September 2021)

sentiment has backed off  a tad,  discount hunters still in stealth mode
not seeing any ambush here, with the offer, $xauusd has not stamped a low yet...


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## Joules MM1 (11 September 2021)

notes








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## Joules MM1 (21 September 2021)

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that's a fairly clear picture, almost text-book trend build

no reason to close STO's
positional trade of 2021 so far


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## Joules MM1 (24 November 2021)

like xauusd the BTD crowd are out n buying about n nothing to dissuade them
a slope of hope as far the eye can see
maybe they'll rescue PM's, non-cnfirmations everywhere, inflationary # made no difference so far
maybe the multi decade mean is in  play and we need to go there first, rinse out the weak longs so a new ramp can be built
but right now the crowd is saying this the best buying opportunity, like, evah

palladium cfd front month all hours shows 
"all clients" are 96% capital on buy side
"top clients" 93% capital on buy side
...is there anyone left to buy...or, sell to ?








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