# Not Buying - Not Selling - Waiting



## Garpal Gumnut (24 May 2022)

I am quite sure that all members of ASF are familiar with that absurdist play by Samuel Beckett named "Waiting for Godot". The two tramps await something that will feed and clothe them but which never arrives. 

I feel much like them, and have stopped buying and selling and the Gumnut fortune as insignificant as it is in the larger scheme of things sits at 50/50 Aussie Shares and Cash or "safe" cash like investments/accounts.

There is too much whataboutery and where to from here and it makes me tired but not irritable and we are having beautiful days here in Townsville.

I prefer peace and the good things in life so await for a definite crash or a move onwards and upwards with the markets. 

Neither would it be the end of the world should either happen but at this point in time I see poor pickings if not actual losses in committing any more cash in to the ASX.  

Up a bit, down, down a bit up. I couldn't be bothered really. 

I could change on the spin of a coin though.

This must be what ennui feels like. 

Does anyone else feel the same way?

gg


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## Mohammed Hazabig'un (24 May 2022)

As my possible future Employer, I wish you and the Gumnut fortune all the best


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## divs4ever (24 May 2022)

am mostly in the market currently  , yes i think there is a SAVAGE downturn in the wind  , but am also concerned  there will be some restraint on liquidity imposed   ( say a freeze or limit on bank withdrawals )

 what's coming will be unpleasant ( for me ) but at least i am mentally prepared  , and some prices i am getting now  aren't so bad either 

 the pickings might be currently poor , but that was where i grew up  , what bedroom  furniture  that wasn't home-made  was second-hand and repainted/recovered  , 

 cheers and good luck


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## Craton (24 May 2022)

Maybe your getting ennui mixed up with patience gg?


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## divs4ever (24 May 2022)

Mohammed Hazabig'un said:


> As my possible future Employer, I wish you and the Gumnut fortune all the best



 nope GG won't be employing me  , i'm on a disability pension  , and they are sick of me being sick so will push me onto the aged pension soon   and i think GG is also too far from a serious hospital  , and  at least the 3 near me are capable of  immediate complicated surgery , if i get there in time .

but still wish you all a heap luck  , i think we will all be needing it


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## wayneL (24 May 2022)

I have read the revelation of Saint Jerome. It is secret and only available to the financial gnostics and quite the opposite to the crumbs offered to the proletariat.

By way of symbolism, the four horsemen of the apocalypse are war, famine, debt, and fake pestilence.

By these signs we will know the proximity of the next coming of the messianic bull, will save all of us.


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## divs4ever (24 May 2022)

so we are only  half way there ??

 the current dust-up really isn't a war ,  but famine is approaching fast  , and the last two  we have in abundance


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## wayneL (24 May 2022)

divs4ever said:


> so we are only  half way there ??
> 
> the current dust-up really isn't a war ,  but famine is approaching fast  , and the last two  we have in abundance



I think they are only just warming up.


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## Garpal Gumnut (24 May 2022)

Garpal Gumnut said:


> I am quite sure that all members of ASF are familiar with that absurdist play by Samuel Beckett named "Waiting for Godot". The two tramps await something that will feed and clothe them but which never arrives.
> 
> I feel much like them, and have stopped buying and selling and the Gumnut fortune as insignificant as it is in the larger scheme of things sits at 50/50 Aussie Shares and Cash or "safe" cash like investments/accounts.
> 
> ...



Sorry.

A discrepancy in my reckoning. An Estragon moment.  

My gold bar which I've been buying since 1981, all buried, geo-located GPS for the descendants to argue about. 

gg


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## wayneL (24 May 2022)

Garpal Gumnut said:


> Sorry.
> 
> A discrepancy in my reckoning. An Estragon moment.
> 
> ...



Sidebar:

Our closest descendants are nephews and nieces which can't be bothered giving us the time of day.

We're going out in style


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## Garpal Gumnut (24 May 2022)

wayneL said:


> I think they are only just warming up.



I would never have thought when I was a lad that Russia would be a godbothering nation with Czarist fantasies and Europe would be an atheistic cripple awaiting the inevitable. 

Nor that the USA would be so leaderless, and China so capitalistic and hegemonic. 

Perhaps that is why I am waiting to buy or sell in the markets. 

Sometimes it just gets too much to take on board and digest. 

And the Rolling Stones sans Charlie are about to buy Zimmer frames. 

gg


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## wayneL (24 May 2022)

Garpal Gumnut said:


> I would never have thought when I was a lad that Russia would be a godbothering nation with Czarist fantasies and Europe would be an atheistic cripple awaiting the inevitable.
> 
> Nor that the USA would be so leaderless, and China so capitalistic and hegemonic.
> 
> ...



'Cept for Keith. He's working on a 20 year plan


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## Dona Ferentes (24 May 2022)

Oh, yep indeed. While things aren't "different" this time, there are forces at work that have introduced heightened uncertainty. Call it risk.
.
As a long-term resident of _Ennui-sur-Blasé_, I believe Masterful Inaction is an appropriate course at present, referencing the introductory post.


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## divs4ever (24 May 2022)

Garpal Gumnut said:


> I would never have thought when I was a lad that Russia would be a godbothering nation with Czarist fantasies and Europe would be an atheistic cripple awaiting the inevitable.
> 
> Nor that the USA would be so leaderless, and China so capitalistic and hegemonic.
> 
> ...



yes that surprised me as well , but maybe their god-botherers  are less corruptible than ours ( in the West )

am not so sure of your assessment on China


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## JohnDe (24 May 2022)

Garpal Gumnut said:


> I would never have thought when I was a lad that Russia would be a godbothering nation with Czarist fantasies and Europe would be an atheistic cripple awaiting the inevitable.
> 
> Nor that the USA would be so leaderless, and China so capitalistic and hegemonic.
> 
> ...




History has a tendency to repeat itself, only the format changes just like language.


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## waterbottle (24 May 2022)

A safe move.
I think we have 1-2 more down legs, perhaps set to begin tonight as NASDAQ figures down 2% thanks to more earnings missed (SNAP down 30% after hours!!).
Nonetheless, no one became rich saving or sitting on their hands, at least not with MMT in place...


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## Captain_Chaza (24 May 2022)

Garpal Gumnut said:


> I am quite sure that all members of ASF are familiar with that absurdist play by Samuel Beckett named "Waiting for Godot". The two tramps await something that will feed and clothe them but which never arrives.
> 
> I feel much like them, and have stopped buying and selling and the Gumnut fortune as insignificant as it is in the larger scheme of things sits at 50/50 Aussie Shares and Cash or "safe" cash like investments/accounts.
> 
> ...



*I do*!


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## UMike (24 May 2022)

Garpal Gumnut said:


> Not Buying - Not Selling - Waiting​
> Does anyone else feel the same way?
> 
> gg



Same.


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## divs4ever (24 May 2022)

Captain_Chaza said:


> *I do*!
> 
> 
> 
> ...



 nope  , i have never seen that play  , maybe i was too busy   working   or just not 'art-house ' enough 

 cheers 

 however i get the idea from comments here


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## frugal.rock (24 May 2022)

Prefer the fillum..


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## Gretsch (24 May 2022)

So this is my first post.
I'm going to say I'm kicking myself, I should have sold all of my stocks last September when I saw my portfolio was at it's highest it had ever been. The thought crossed my mind, but I didn't act.  Am I alone?


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## StockyGuy (24 May 2022)

Gretsch said:


> So this is my first post.
> I'm going to say I'm kicking myself, I should have sold all of my stocks last September when I saw my portfolio was at it's highest it had ever been. The thought crossed my mind, but I didn't act.  Am I alone?




Waiting is your forte, maybe.  Eight years for a first post, on a thread about waiting!


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## againsthegrain (24 May 2022)

StockyGuy said:


> Waiting is your forte, maybe.  Eight years for a first post, on a thread about waiting!



you shall get a reply in 4204800 minutes


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## frugal.rock (24 May 2022)

againsthegrain said:


> you shall get a reply in 4204800 minutes



I'm wondering why?
A reply in 7 years, 51 weeks and 5 days is a very odd time frame....😅🧐
Better make it 4207680 minutes 🤣


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## againsthegrain (24 May 2022)

frugal.rock said:


> I'm wondering why?
> A reply in 7 years, 51 weeks and 5 days is a very odd time frame....😅🧐
> Better make it 4207680 minutes 🤣



I guess it depends if your counting by days weeks months or years, some mysteries are better left random ☺


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## eskys (24 May 2022)

I'll ditch the market, go out and buy a metal detector to find gg's buried gold


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## wayneL (24 May 2022)

eskys said:


> I'll ditch the market, go out and buy a metal detector to find gg's buried gold



Thumb screws may be more successful


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## Mohammed Hazabig'un (25 May 2022)

Good call by GG. Looks like the War maybe going on long term. Ukraine rejecting cease Fire, Russia digging in. Inflation  QT and possible China problems to take their toll. Global economies not contracting yet, but the trend isn't up.


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## Gretsch (25 May 2022)

StockyGuy said:


> Waiting is your forte, maybe.  Eight years for a first post, on a thread about waiting!



Yeah odd isn’t it? it’s taken me this long to question my ability to time the market, so now it’s going to be a matter of time IN the market.


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## divs4ever (25 May 2022)

Gretsch said:


> So this is my first post.
> I'm going to say I'm kicking myself, I should have sold all of my stocks last September when I saw my portfolio was at it's highest it had ever been. The thought crossed my mind, but I didn't act.  Am I alone?



 not me ,  i made the decision  to stay in the market ( but maybe not 100%  ) back when deciding the strategy  late 2010  

 now sure i got lucky  by having cash to park in 2011 ,  but time will tell if i made the correct decision   when the market finally has a meltdown


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## Garpal Gumnut (25 May 2022)

eskys said:


> I'll ditch the market, go out and buy a metal detector to find gg's buried gold



I would recommend those metal detectors made by CDA, my pick in the May Comp. 

gg


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## wayneL (25 May 2022)

Garpal Gumnut said:


> I would recommend those metal detectors made by CDA, my pick in the May Comp.
> 
> gg



Well that's one way to ramp the price GG


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## finicky (25 May 2022)

My positioning is similar to @Garpal Gumnut although I am nowhere near 50% cash. Not by choice - my best shares for cashing up with are not at good prices. My cash goal would be about 30%; well short but currently at enough to fund a couple of years without forced selling into a crashed market plus something to throw at depressed value stocks. Hold some p.ms at my dealer.
I am not disciplined enough to refrain from buying an occasional gold speccie though and did so last week. Some stocks are significantly cheaper but of course won't withstand a crash: discretionary retail (e.g NCK, AX1, TPW), Tech (e.g XRO, PME, CDA), Biotech (CHM, NYR, RAD,1AD) - just a casual list of some I look at. Even some gold producers look cheap, if a believer in future higher gold prices - but again, they'll also still take a hit in a crash, which is why a goldbug should also hold some cash imo.
I have not got around to taking a bet against the market via inverse etfs: BBOZ, BBUS, BEAR, SNAS, probably won't.


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## Belli (25 May 2022)

All of my personal available funds are already in the market.  I'm not inclined to place funds I have set aside to cover my next 12 month's of expenses which includes some just in case money such as the refrigerator blowing up although that is unlikely.  That part is my "sleep well at night" money.

Nor have I checked what has been happening in any share market.


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## eskys (25 May 2022)

I'll wait for an opportunity to get into EVN and NST again(  got out this morning)


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## Gretsch (25 May 2022)

Thinking is it a good idea to put some sell triggers in place when what stocks I have are still in the black.


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## Garpal Gumnut (25 May 2022)

Gretsch said:


> Thinking is it a good idea to put some sell triggers in place when what stocks I have are still in the black.



In a proper crash your stops will be bypassed and you may be sold out at the bottom to the market makers. 

It's not a bad idea though, if it's not a complete rout to have your cash. 

Then again your stop may be triggered just as the market decides not to crash.

gg


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## divs4ever (25 May 2022)

Gretsch said:


> Thinking is it a good idea to put some sell triggers in place when what stocks I have are still in the black.



 do you want to sell those stocks  before a major fall ( pick the answer  that fits YOU best )

  i have several holdings  that are massively in profit  , do i sell them  and hope to get a good price when i re-buy  ( not very often for me , i may as well add some more  if i can get a 'fair price ' )

 i prefer to sell SOME of the holding  to recover that investment cash  and let the 'profits'  run


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## Craton (25 May 2022)

Garpal Gumnut said:


> I am quite sure that all members of ASF are familiar with that absurdist play by Samuel Beckett named "Waiting for Godot". The two tramps await something that will feed and clothe them but which never arrives.
> 
> I feel much like them, and have stopped buying and selling and the Gumnut fortune as insignificant as it is in the larger scheme of things sits at 50/50 Aussie Shares and Cash or "safe" cash like investments/accounts.
> 
> ...




Talking dividends.

Thanks to the Covid downturn I did my usual contrarian play and nibbled away aka topped up the historically bigger divvy payers and kept most of the DRP's in play. Ha, when a divvy was actually paid!

As I'm an investor not a trader per se and not that I've a lot of holdings (or even in $$$ value) but as my holdings have grown one thing I've changed of late, especially when a SP is IMHO too high or overvalued (e.g. AMP), is to revert a divvy paying stock out of the DRP and back into a cash divvy.

That cash is rarely used to buy more of that stock later on. The intention is to reinstate that DRP at a time where I think I'm getting value for money (e.g. WBC). The cash is either added to the rainy day/sleep well at night dry powder, to top up or buy other holdings or to treat myself. 

In the case of BHP's recent record divvy and that live music had opened up again hence back to gigging again, I took the divvy in cash and splurged on purchasing a brand new Gibson guitar, this el cheapo guitar and other equipment including this Looper, this 3 way guitar stand and other essentials like strings, plectrums and straps. 

It may not be a perfect system but is one that gives me a sense of control and alleviates that feeling of ennui, especially more so now with the new toys.


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## Garpal Gumnut (25 May 2022)

Craton said:


> Talking dividends.
> 
> Thanks to the Covid downturn I did my usual contrarian play and nibbled away aka topped up the historically bigger divvy payers and kept most of the DRP's in play. Ha, when a divvy was actually paid!
> 
> ...



I must admit I never use DRP.

In the pre-franking days, when I first started out, a mate of mine did my tax. He said if you want to buy a stock, buy it, don't do a DRP as it is more complicated in the tax return and made him more money in accounting fees. 

And as you point out the whole idea is to either enjoy the moolah while alive or give it away before you die. 

So I would completely agree with your strategy. 

gg


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## Garpal Gumnut (25 May 2022)

I enjoy this time of day, the whatifery and the last minute mulling the tealeaves. 

Up a bit, down a bit today.

Yep, 3.45pm to 4.15pm post auction is exciting. 

I'm still on the sidelines.

BHP fell less than I thought it would today. WDS may end up a bit ahead. 

CDA is in 3rd place in the May Comp, only 2 more to knock over, it is a bit cloudy, nice and cool and there must be a snake about as a kookaburra is quite intent on one corner of the garden. 

gg


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## eskys (25 May 2022)

Looks like I'm gonna have a date with Dave tonight. Meanwhile, the puppy is wooping and running in her sleep..... I'm packing up, back to the smoke......


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## Craton (25 May 2022)

Garpal Gumnut said:


> I must admit I never use DRP.
> 
> In the pre-franking days, when I first started out, a mate of mine did my tax. He said if you want to buy a stock, buy it, don't do a DRP as it is more complicated in the tax return and made him more money in accounting fees.
> 
> ...



Do you mean pre Franking Credits?

Yes it is different now, one needs to account for the divvy in whatever form it takes, cash, DRP or BSP, franked or unfranked etc at tax time.


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## bux2000 (25 May 2022)

Garpal Gumnut said:


> and there must be a snake about as a kookaburra is quite intent on one corner of the garden.



They are amazing birds ...........my Brother has a family that he feeds every morning  on the handrail of his deck, what started a one Male now extends to 6 with the offspring. His Wife has chooks so very few snakes except for the odd python and lately a fox.

There seems to be a lot of....... I think I can .....charts at the moment. 
Lets hope they can get over the top of that hill to become ......I knew I coulds......but not holding my breath.

bux


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## Belli (25 May 2022)

Garpal Gumnut said:


> I must admit I never use DRP.
> 
> In the pre-franking days, when I first started out, a mate of mine did my tax. He said if you want to buy a stock, buy it, don't do a DRP as it is more complicated in the tax return and made him more money in accounting fees.
> 
> ...




Apart from Vanguard which is full DRP or none, with the remaining listed equities you can do a partial DRP.  I know a few who do that so they not only continue to invest but also get some cash.  With the software available to accountants, the complications which applied in the past no longer do.  There is probably some free on-line software if prepared to take that risk.


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## Belli (25 May 2022)

Belli said:


> Apart from Vanguard which is full DRP or none, with the remaining listed equities you can do a partial DRP.  I know a few who do that so they not only continue to invest but also get some cash.  With the software available to accountants, the complications which applied in the past no longer do.  There is probably some free on-line software if prepared to take that risk.




LOL.  Just realised every buy I have has it's own cost base anyway so a few DRPs each year would be an administrative nothing.

As I haven't sold anything for many years, apart when I swapped STW for VAS when it listed which was probaly not a great move but it seemed like a good idea at the time, it's the same as having a DRP in place.  It ain't going to be my problem though because if I don't sell, and I have no intention to, it's an issue for my executors not me.


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## Craton (25 May 2022)

Belli said:


> Apart from Vanguard which is full DRP or none, with the remaining listed equities you can do a partial DRP.  I know a few who do that so they not only continue to invest but also get some cash.



Yes exactly, a lot of companies do and also something I'll be looking into as the holdings build up further.


Belli said:


> With the software available to accountants, the complications which applied in the past no longer do.  There is probably some free on-line software if prepared to take that risk.



If you know your way around spreadsheets.

I use two Excel workbooks. One to record all buys and sells including top-ups like SPP.

The other I record *all* the current financial year divvy info including any Residual amount left over from the DRP pricing and confirm the Carried Forward amount tallies with what I have on record.
Setup so it automatically provides the total franked, partially franked and unfranked income and grossed up amounts.

I copy and paste into another sheet for the next financial year and repeat. There's more to it of course like recording the DRP price and number bought, number of share before and after etc but that the gist.


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## Craton (25 May 2022)

I forgot to mention the the buy and sell spreadsheet includes the DRP because of the cost base.


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## Craton (25 May 2022)

Belli said:


> LOL.  Just realised every buy I have has it's own cost base anyway so a few DRPs each year would be an administrative nothing.
> 
> As I haven't sold anything for many years, apart when I swapped STW for VAS when it listed which was probaly not a great move but it seemed like a good idea at the time, it's the same as having a DRP in place.  It ain't going to be my problem though because if I don't sell, and I have no intention to, it's an issue for my executors not me.



Oh the h/ache you'll create, LOL!!!
As long as the doco's are all intact, it'll be no worries.


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## Belli (25 May 2022)

Craton said:


> Oh the h/ache you'll create, LOL!!!
> As long as the doco's are all intact, it'll be no worries.




The small cost will be well worth it to them.  It would cost them a hell of a lot more otherwise.  Know of some estates which involved over $25k in fees to reconstruct the holdings as records were never kept.

As for documents, every buy is stored in PDF by company folder, by date e.g. ARG 2021_11_02 BUY as well as ETF Annual Tax Statements as are all tax returns going back to 2005 for me and 1998 for the SMSF on PC hard disk, Google Drive (folders automatically synched) and backed up on external hard disks and a NAS.

Instructions on the record structure is left with a certified copy of my Will and those instructions include access codes and passwords for items such as Spotify subscription, etc.

All it involved was a small effort in planning on my part plus some very tedious (and, by God, was it tedious) initial scanning of paper documents.


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## Belli (25 May 2022)

Craton said:


> Yes exactly, a lot of companies do and also something I'll be looking into as the holdings build up further.
> 
> If you know your way around spreadsheets.
> 
> ...




I don't bother to go to that effort.  At the end of each financial year, I merge all the PDFs for the relevant year into one PDF using a free merge program and give it to the accountant via their secure portal.


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## Gretsch (25 May 2022)

Garpal Gumnut said:


> In a proper crash your stops will be bypassed and you may be sold out at the bottom to the market makers.
> 
> It's not a bad idea though, if it's not a complete rout to have your cash.
> 
> ...



Yep, my tech ETF's (ATEC, ETHI, NDQ) had dipped and then I bought more so it doesn't make sense to sell them now, while HACK is getting close to the edge, and I'm hearing tech stocks could go down even further.


divs4ever said:


> do you want to sell those stocks  before a major fall ( pick the answer  that fits YOU best )



If I had a crystal ball, YES! 
In any event, something - for sure - will throw a spanner, and another buying opportunity.


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## Craton (25 May 2022)

Belli said:


> I don't bother to go to that effort.  At the end of each financial year, I merge all the PDFs for the relevant year into one PDF using a free merge program and give it to the accountant via their secure portal.



Fair enough and each to their own. E.g. from the spreadsheets I can create pretty little visual graphs that show the ups and downs, ins and outs, the largest and smallest holdings and much more besides.

That's me though seeing I'm in I.T. whereas yourself, it's a different strategy not only for accounting but for the holding/portfolio. All good.


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## Craton (25 May 2022)

Gretsch said:


> Yep, my tech ETF's (ATEC, ETHI, NDQ) had dipped and then I bought more so it doesn't make sense to sell them now, while HACK is getting close to the edge, and I'm hearing tech stocks could go down even further.
> 
> If I had a crystal ball, YES!
> In any event, something - for sure - will throw a spanner, and another buying opportunity.



The market goes up, the market goes down, the market goes round 'n' round!


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## Belli (25 May 2022)

Craton said:


> Fair enough and each to their own. E.g. from the spreadsheets I can create pretty little visual graphs that show the ups and downs, ins and outs, the largest and smallest holdings and much more besides.
> 
> That's me though seeing I'm in I.T. whereas yourself, it's a different strategy not only for accounting but for the holding/portfolio. All good.




You're right.  There is not one way.  I'm lazy and wanted the least stressful method of investing so initially settled on some LIC (boring stuff) and added two ETFs at a later stage.  Suits my level of incompetence and general attitude to the share market.


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## divs4ever (25 May 2022)

Craton said:


> Talking dividends.
> 
> Thanks to the Covid downturn I did my usual contrarian play and nibbled away aka topped up the historically bigger divvy payers and kept most of the DRP's in play. Ha, when a divvy was actually paid!
> 
> ...



 i was planning to swap SOME div. paying stocks out of DRP ( where they had them ) when i swapped to the aged pension  ( and still MIGHT )

 but some of them i planned to turn to cash divs ( either fully or say 50/50 ) have been so mediocre  i have actually sold them down ( like WOW ) or exited completely ( like AMP , and IPL )

 could never find a Gibson  i was comfortable  playing ( 3 prospects sounded GREAT , but i like to play , not fight the guitar )

 HINT  put out the big bucks and buy quality leads ( they usually have gold plated tips )

 have fun


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## divs4ever (25 May 2022)

Garpal Gumnut said:


> I enjoy this time of day, the whatifery and the last minute mulling the tealeaves.
> 
> Up a bit, down a bit today.
> 
> ...



the kookas around here  bump off the odd rodent as well , so there may be some rodents chasing the chook food ( and a Joe Blake hoping to catch the rodent before the kooka does )


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## Knobby22 (25 May 2022)

I sold nearly everything to pay down my home loan and to provide seed funding to a possible mine. Will let everyone know if it floats.


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## Smurf1976 (26 May 2022)

Gretsch said:


> Yeah odd isn’t it? it’s taken me this long to question my ability to time the market, so now it’s going to be a matter of time IN the market.



Time in the market or timing the market?

The age old question.

As a practical observation, the saying is more useful as an indicator than as a statement of fact.

"It's time in the market, not timing the market" they say. If that's true then it signals a top. If it's false then it signals a bottom.

Just my practical observation having seen a few cycles now. 

I moved my superannuation, which is simply in a fund not self managed, to cash in January for the record. Outside of that, my actively traded account is about half invested at present.


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## Belli (26 May 2022)

Smurf1976 said:


> Time in the market or timing the market?
> 
> The age old question.
> 
> ...




I consider it is associated with an individual's psychology.  We all have our own bias and those drive us to certain conclusions.

For what it is worth, somewhere in one thread I uploaded a spreadsheet which I created as an exercise just to see what would happen.  It involved buying 100 units of STW (and later I added VAS & VGS) at the beginning of each month  starting in January 2002 so it would cover the GFC and other events.  I haven't kept the spreadsheet but I remember it showed at the end of FY 2021 a holding of abit 23,500 units and an income (cash only no franking or other components) of over $40k with the total cash income for the entire period of 21 years being close to $500k.  Probably not to bad for essentially doing SFA.


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## Gretsch (26 May 2022)

Smurf1976 said:


> Time in the market or timing the market?
> 
> The age old question.
> 
> ...



Yes I meant timing the market. 

I started investing in the market in 2014 so this is my first experience of a fall. I was lucky enough to have sold a property at the start of Covid and invested most of it then, so I did well.

Sounds like you’ve got a few years on me.


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## Mohammed Hazabig'un (26 May 2022)

Gretsch said:


> Yes I meant timing the market.
> 
> I started investing in the market in 2014 so this is my first experience of a fall. I was lucky enough to have sold a property at the start of Covid and invested most of it then, so I did well.
> 
> Sounds like you’ve got a few years on me.



Even the best Timers of all


Gretsch said:


> Yes I meant timing the market.
> 
> I started investing in the market in 2014 so this is my first experience of a fall. I was lucky enough to have sold a property at the start of Covid and invested most of it then, so I did well.
> 
> Sounds like you’ve got a few years on me.



Timing can be a fools errand, but you'd notice a lot of Members here got out before the Covid crash and back in after. Picking the top of the Market last year (August) was easy for most Id say.
That said I wouldn't want to recommend it as flies in the face of research - you either learn Momentum Trading, see @tech/a or @Skate threads, learn Value Investing like @Value Collector or Buy n Hold like @systematic advices.

Market time at your own peril, I know from experience.


----------



## Gretsch (26 May 2022)

Belli said:


> I consider it is associated with an individual's psychology.  We all have our own bias and those drive us to certain conclusions.
> 
> For what it is worth, somewhere in one thread I uploaded a spreadsheet which I created as an exercise just to see what would happen.  It involved buying 100 units of STW (and later I added VAS & VGS) at the beginning of each month  starting in January 2002 so it would cover the GFC and other events.  I haven't kept the spreadsheet but I remember it showed at the end of FY 2021 a holding of abit 23,500 units and an income (cash only no franking or other components) of over $40k with the total cash income for the entire period of 21 years being close to $500k.  Probably not to bad for essentially doing SFA.



Can I ask you if your portfolio bottomed during the GFC or was it still showing capital gain?


----------



## Smurf1976 (26 May 2022)

Gretsch said:


> Sounds like you’ve got a few years on me



I learned the hard and expensive way in the year 2000 with the tech stocks crash.

That was particularly painful since I'd thought the runup to be irrational myself but trusted that the experts (financial advisor, fund managers etc) must know more than me. Unfortunately that turned out to be a wrong assumption - walked away with a substantial loss in the end.

Suffice to say that taught me a lot about market tops.

As a general rule:

Bond market peaks first.

Stocks peak second.

Commodities peak last.

If the mainstream public are excited about stocks and piling in meanwhile the bond market tops out well then taken together that's a huge warning sign. Doubly so if there's a major rise in energy prices underway given that historically that has preceded not all but many major tops. 

All those signs have been present recently.


----------



## Belli (27 May 2022)

Gretsch said:


> Can I ask you if your portfolio bottomed during the GFC or was it still showing capital gain?




I don't know to be honest.  It probably did drop.  I'd need to create a spreadsheet to find out and put simply I don't think it matters all that much now.  Keep in mind the focus of my late wife and myself was dividend income (still is for me) so we were buying as much as we could. Same with the SMSF but we were using as much of the very generous concessional contributions available at the time so we were plonking in $60k+ each per year for a while.  Those two actions likely distort calculations.  Only LICs then until two ETFs the first being STW in 2002.

The 2000 tech wreck didn't affect us really as I don't think the LICs held much in the way of them.  Never understood the tech stuff anyway so didn't look at any of them from an investment point of view.


----------



## Joe Blow (27 May 2022)

The posts on guitars can now be found in the Anyone play guitar? thread. Feel free to continue the discussion there.


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## frugal.rock (28 May 2022)

Smurf1976 said:


> Suffice to say that taught me a lot about market tops.
> 
> As a general rule:
> 
> ...



A few questions I've been pondering;

1. Very recent top in bonds, but is that likely to be the peak?

2. Same for stocks and commodities.

3. Pundits saying energy prices likely to still rise considerably. I don't see that changing until renewables are firmly in control ? 
(I've mentioned "the last hurrah" for fossil fuels previously, and we seem to be in the start of that drawn out process)

So I'm wondering, whilst all the signs are there, it seems to me, that possibly we still have a ways to go?
Like a Bollinger, does the upwards stretch still need to occur again to gain the tension for the colossal snap back?

I must admit, I'm correlation flummoxed by inflation, rates, yields, geo affected etc 
Ukraine and sanctions seem to be an ongoing process from which full flow down financial implications haven't arrived yet.

But, is the dust settling a little from the major changes on the many fronts of this year?
What's priced in already and what isn't?

What does it all mean? 🧐🤨🤔😵‍💫🤯


----------



## Belli (28 May 2022)

frugal.rock said:


> What does it all mean?


----------



## frugal.rock (28 May 2022)

Thanks laddy... found myself applying the appropriate tune when reading the caption...😁


----------



## divs4ever (28 May 2022)

frugal.rock said:


> Thanks laddy... found myself applying the appropriate tune when reading the caption...😁




 more appropriate than comfortable , sadly


----------



## divs4ever (28 May 2022)

frugal.rock said:


> What does it all mean? 🧐🤨🤔😵‍💫🤯



uncertainty  , it LOOKS  like fabricated volatility  , to what end ??

 trying to flush the punters ( and retail investors ) into bonds  paying trivial coupons so that capital can be trapped  ( say 10 year bonds becoming 20 or 30 year bonds without an interest rate adjustment  , or 30 years  becoming 100 year investments )

 they are getting so practiced at kicking the can , why not include bond maturity dates 

 BUT what MIGHT happen is a total collapse of trust  , currency , government  banks , and any sort of officialdom


----------



## Dona Ferentes (28 May 2022)

Whereas with respect to market conniptions, I find myself comfortably numb. 

There's a lot of noise out there.


----------



## Smurf1976 (28 May 2022)

frugal.rock said:


> So I'm wondering, whilst all the signs are there, it seems to me, that possibly we still have a ways to go?



My basic thought is "markets don't move in a straight line".

Lots of warning signs and we've seen that followed with a now ~20% decline in the stock market as measured by the S&P500.

My guess is before too long we get a good buying opportunity and a proper rally. That doesn't mean the issues are resolved and that we're off and running for a decade long bull market, not even slightly, it just means a decent rally.

Just my guess.


----------



## Knobby22 (28 May 2022)

Smurf1976 said:


> My basic thought is "markets don't move in a straight line".
> 
> Lots of warning signs and we've seen that followed with a now ~20% decline in the stock market as measured by the S&P500.
> 
> ...



Usually though there is a bear market rally first, that wipes out the remaining positive sentiment so I will be very wary. I fell for one back in the late 80s.


----------



## waterbottle (2 June 2022)

It's coming.

The storm is o'er the horizon and the sea is choppy.

The US Fed is planning to allow bonds to mature and run-off their $9T balance sheet, although some commentators have said that this isn't going to be enough to stem inflation, stating that an active sell-off will be required. The run-off will be done at a cap of $50 billion/month initially, before it increases to $90billion later in the year, composed of a combination of bonds + MBS.

All of this done in an effort to stem inflation. Janet Yellen has, in the past day or two, come out and admitted that she incorrectly forecasted inflation as transitory. The Fed has made similar comments. Alot of the blame seems to be resting at the feet of the Russian-Ukraine war.

Meanwhile, Larry Summers has offered his 2c, stating that it will be impossible to control inflation without inducing a recession. Some commentators believe recession is already apparent (in France), whilst other economic data points to decreased discretionary spending (German retail spending down) thanks to increases in the cost of energy.

Has anyone changed their strategy so far?


----------



## Gretsch (3 June 2022)

What would a rational investor do. 
Get out or sit it out?


----------



## divs4ever (3 June 2022)

i am still nibbling  i can't afford to sit and wait , nor to completely vaporize the investment cash  , and meanwhile i don't trust the banks when they come under pressure ( especially when they have formulated 'bail-in' laws )


----------



## divs4ever (3 June 2022)

waterbottle said:


> It's coming.
> 
> The storm is o'er the horizon and the sea is choppy.
> 
> ...





 what the West NEEDS is a BIG war , so everyone in fixated on it while the national treasury is looted ( and the winners will rush in and loot the vanquished  when the dust settles )

 now the problem is .. China is TOO big ( and has them by the supply lines ) while  Russia is just the Goldilocks size BUT has a literal forest of nuclear weapons ( rigged to automatically launch  as a nuclear counter-measure )

 Sooo the survivors of a nuclear war ( if any ) are more likely to live in the Southern Hemisphere  , and they really didn't NEED a big war to get them out of debt ( well most of them ) any way 

Sooo how do you factor in  a conceivable worst case scenario  
 gold and silver in lead lined containers perhaps  because you can bet the internet will be down for weeks


----------



## Captain_Chaza (3 June 2022)

*Recession *?

The only recession I can remember is a Recession I didn't even feel 

Even the last 2 Recessions felt the same to me

*"Much to do about Nothing" *
 I say!

They all passed over and I did not even know that  they had passed overhead

 I would appreciate if somebody here will notify me when we hit the next recession
 I would love to know what it feels like

I seriously think I am immune to recession

Trust me!

Every time I ever heard of Recession  is when it had already Passed overheard 
IE:  This is The Perfect Buy Signal  IMHO


----------



## divs4ever (3 June 2022)

Captain_Chaza said:


> *Recession *?
> 
> The only recession I can remember is a Recession I didn't even feel
> 
> ...



 yes  recessions are normally declared in hindsight ( and fudged figures ) ( especially if they are happening around election time )

i suspect some 'recessions' are actually  mild depressions  in comparison to The Great Depression , 

 unusual this time was the RBA rate rise DURING a Federal Election campaign , which hints something more desperate is happening in the undercurrents


----------



## wayneL (4 June 2022)

Captain_Chaza said:


> *Recession *?
> 
> The only recession I can remember is a Recession I didn't even feel
> 
> ...



It depends on the industry you're in. My industry also barely feels a recession.

My father used to be very affected in his industry of furniture manufacturing. He could call it (and the recovery) well before almost everyone else, simple by his sales trends. It's seems that (back then anyway) furniture was one of the first things people stopped buying, or at least started choosing less expensive fabrics.

But also one of the first industries where you noticed people starting to lash out again.

My clients generally don't give a @#$&, they're going to keep their nags going no matter what.


----------



## UMike (7 June 2022)

Put 2 low ball offers in for the first time tonight after market close.
As if anyone didn't expect this rate rise.


----------



## Captain_Chaza (7 June 2022)

I only felt the Interest Rate rise hurting when it rose to 13.5%  -17.0%
starting in the mid - 80's  >

Not many marriages survived in those days
Just watch the price of houses drop over the next 6 months

Sorry for the history lesson but that is why keeping INFLATION down is ALL OMNIPOTENT


----------



## UMike (7 June 2022)

Captain_Chaza said:


> .....
> Not many marriages survived in those days
> Just watch the price of houses drop over the next 6 months
> ......



Been saying that to the good lady for the last 20 years only to see them increase 8 fold.

Fine by me Cashed up and ready.


----------



## Gretsch (7 June 2022)

Obviously affecting the value of stocks thou...


----------



## waterbottle (7 June 2022)

Well the COVID-recession wasn't truly a recession as we had unfathomable amounts of income support and welfare available. If we truly do head into a recession, this may be Australia's first one in a while. Not too sure if I'd want that.


----------



## divs4ever (7 June 2022)

Gretsch said:


> Obviously affecting the value of stocks thou...



 will be making those with heavy margin loans be more cautious so far  , margin loans can be great in a bull market  ( i do not have a margin loan )  but the wiser ones will be locking in profits ( and reducing the loans )

 arguably just what the market needed .. a reality check  ( a bit late , but better late than never )


----------



## divs4ever (7 June 2022)

waterbottle said:


> Well the COVID-recession wasn't truly a recession as we had unfathomable amounts of income support and welfare available. If we truly do head into a recession, this may be Australia's first one in a while. Not too sure if I'd want that.



 depends on what YOU call recession  ( the definition has been mangled over the years )

 i call a recession as a fall in productivity GAINS  over two consecutive quarters    say  starting the sequence  at 2% rise in the previous quarter  then 1.8% rise , followed be a 1.75%  rise  , and then maybe a return to 2% rise   .. under that definition  'recessions ' are fairly  common but still uncomfortable ( especially to the over-leveraged )

 a bit like retraces in the stock-market .. unpleasant reality-checks  but not a disaster if you are sensible 

 what you are really fearing is the 'D' word ( depression ) were the productivity  actually  contracts  say from 2% rise to a 1% FALL , then  a 1.5% FALL after that  and they tend to become a downward spiral ( sometimes for a decade or more ) since our economies  are basically like a shark and NEED to keep going forward , this really messes up a modern economy , often causing civil unrest and widespread poverty  ( like seems to be happening in Sri Lanka)

 now of course in modern times even 'productivity ' is a mangled definition ( and can mean  'free money' pumped into the system  despite less work done )

 the problem is  the world ( well the developed part ) might NEED that reality check whether we like it or not  ...  most major civilizations  suffer  a collapse over time for the same reason  , this time the trend towards globalization , means the collapse might be ( nearly ) global  ( say the highlands of PNG might not even hear about it let alone feel it )

 cheers


----------



## Gretsch (8 June 2022)

divs4ever said:


> ( i do not have a margin loan )



neither I


divs4ever said:


> but the wiser ones will be locking in profits ( and reducing the loans )



don’t you mean Would have? Bit late now after the horse has bolted


----------



## Belli (8 June 2022)

Gretsch said:


> don’t you mean Would have? Bit late now after the horse has bolted




I took it to mean the usual profound statement after the event which seems normal with the dude.


----------



## divs4ever (8 June 2022)

Gretsch said:


> neither I
> 
> don’t you mean Would have? Bit late now after the horse has bolted



 that depends SOME stocks could have been bought in the last few months and still be in a useful profit 

 and depending when bought   some stocks are still multi-baggers from say 2011 to 2015 

the market might be lower from the peak  but a few are still near their highs 

 GRR , BPT and STO as examples 

 and of course some would be tax-loss selling  as is the normal strategy  this month ( for some )


----------



## UMike (8 June 2022)

UMike said:


> Put 2 low ball offers in for the first time tonight after market close.
> As if anyone didn't expect this rate rise.



Got one MSB $0.795

God help me.


----------



## divs4ever (8 June 2022)

Gretsch said:


> neither I
> 
> don’t you mean Would have? Bit late now after the horse has bolted



 i also implied  the bigger money  would be doing so slowly  so as not spook the market  , so maybe they have reduced but waiting for a bounce to sell into


----------



## Logique2 (25 June 2022)

Tough times for us all.  The future?
Will petrol get any cheaper? Will electricity get any cheaper?  Or groceries?  
And, have a look at the LT charts of CBA and MQG. These people aren't silly.

Defensive positioning to me means ..pay me a regular dividend or distribution, and I might think about buying  your shares.


----------



## Captain_Chaza (25 June 2022)

Logique2 said:


> Tough times for us all.  The future?
> Will petrol get any cheaper? Will electricity get any cheaper?  Or groceries?
> And, have a look at the LT charts of CBA and MQG. These people aren't silly.
> 
> Defensive positioning to me means ..pay me a regular dividend or distribution, and I might think about buying  your shares.



Good luck on realizing any beneficial Dividend Benefit in these days 
 But IMHO
This Market is not for Little Old Ladies who shop at Myers and /or David Jones living on Dividends

This  time is NOW for Serious Traders!
Some Shares are going UP   >5% / week and others MUCH MUCH MORE

This is what we at Sea  live for!


----------



## Garpal Gumnut (25 June 2022)

Captain_Chaza said:


> Good luck on realizing any beneficial Dividend Benefit in these days
> But IMHO
> This Market is not for Little Old Ladies who shop at Myers and /or David Jones living on Dividends
> 
> ...






gg


----------



## Belli (26 June 2022)

The activity in the last couple of weeks is buying VAS & VGS.  Haven't even bothered with the market otherwise.  My funds are now directed in to these two ETFs.  The LICs I hold can do their respective thing as I feel they are a pretty good backstop when/if distributions from the ETFs drop.

No chasing, no trying to get an edge (the big whales have got there well before the mere thought of the possibility had even yet begun to cross your mind) simply continually building up the holdings and reaping any distributions.  Happy to be average and receive the market return less a relatively small fee.


----------



## Garpal Gumnut (29 June 2022)

It looks to me as if the margin loans are being called in both here and overseas on stocks and btc. 

All the crap has been sold by these margin loan holders.

As the market falls or threatens to they will become sellers of more high quality holdings. The price of the latter will fall. 

As for a bear market, it depends on what you call a bear market. 

The Garpal Gumnut Bear Market ( GGBM ) has not yet occurred, so do not fret. 

I am back to just watching and lining up Russian tanks and observing from drones Heroes of Russia at toilet on twitter being grenaded. Once all the kerfuffle in Ukraine looks to be settling, then may be the time to buy.

Then again we have the MAGA's in the USA and the millions and millions of cousins in Beijing.

I don't necessarily enjoy interesting times, but then again I don't necessarily not.  

gg


----------



## frugal.rock (29 June 2022)

Garpal Gumnut said:


> I don't necessarily enjoy interesting times, but then again I don't necessarily not.











						Senior public servant warns of 'significant' falls on asset markets
					

Australian Office of Financial Management CEO Rob Nicholl says a decade of record-low interest rates and money-printing programs across the world is coming to an end and the impact will be major.




					www.abc.net.au
				




With the little market spurtr recently, I was thinking that maybe my 3 to 6 month outlook could be shortened to 1 to 3 months.
Nah, will leave it at the former. 
Just the cat bouncing off a balcony on the way down..🤪


----------



## divs4ever (29 June 2022)

Garpal Gumnut said:


> As for a bear market, it depends on what you call a bear market.




indeed , i have seen almost as many definitions as i have for 'inflation ' and ' recession '


----------



## Smurf1976 (29 June 2022)

divs4ever said:


> depends on what YOU call recession



Personally I see it as an occurrence which has the "look and feel" of a recession and the last time we really had that in Australia was the 1990's. Most visible signs = business failures, mass unemployment and a general sense of doom and gloom.

Back to the market, well if you were to take a list of the ASX300 or any other fixed list of stocks that wasn't picked specifically based on recent price action, and then went through them one by one and had a quick look at a chart, well there's an awful lot which have seen serious declines from the peak. It's not hard to find something that's massively down, 50%+, from a peak sometime generally 6 - 12 months ago.

This isn't a market where just randomly picking stocks, or even a basket of them, will work.


----------



## JohnDe (30 June 2022)

frugal.rock said:


> Senior public servant warns of 'significant' falls on asset markets
> 
> 
> Australian Office of Financial Management CEO Rob Nicholl says a decade of record-low interest rates and money-printing programs across the world is coming to an end and the impact will be major.
> ...




There are some that have dropped below their true value and worth picking up.


----------



## Garpal Gumnut (30 June 2022)

JohnDe said:


> There are some that have dropped below their true value and worth picking up.



3.50pm -3.59 pm beckons. 

gg


----------



## wayneL (30 June 2022)

Garpal Gumnut said:


> 3.50pm -3.59 pm beckons.
> 
> gg



Post 3:59 is what's important.

My thesis is looking out to October (in a traditionalist view)

I will either be a freaking genius or, lamenting missed opportunities.


----------



## KevinBB (30 June 2022)

Well .. that was a sell-off and a half during the auction ...


----------



## UMike (30 June 2022)

Crazy Stuff.


----------



## frugal.rock (30 June 2022)

JohnDe said:


> There are some that have dropped below their true value and worth picking up.



Well, season me with a sprinkle of 'em?

Too busy working like a squirrel elsewhere. Cheers


----------



## JohnDe (30 June 2022)

frugal.rock said:


> Well, season me with a sprinkle of 'em?
> 
> Too busy working like a squirrel elsewhere. Cheers



DDR is one.

TGR was another but I think that one may have sailed, but worth a look. Same with IFM.

RAC for a speculative, or even a trader.


----------



## peter2 (6 July 2022)

Is this "buy the crap " day ? 
Is the buying in any/all the *BNPL* stocks, poorly performing retail *DSK, KGN*, neobank *DOU*, crappy fin tech *IOU, TYR, EML*, even Nuix (!) a sign that investing gamblers are willing to take on more risk?  Surely this would indicate that the market is near a bottom.

I'd rather see quality large caps going higher before the crap is bought as a sign of a bottom. Banks, CSL are sneaking higher as well while the resources are being hammered down.

One heck of a crazy market at the moment. Buyer beware.

Edit: Perhaps these buyers are smoking something because many pot stocks are also going up.


----------



## Garpal Gumnut (6 July 2022)

peter2 said:


> Is this "buy the crap " day ?
> Is the buying in any/all the *BNPL* stocks, poorly performing retail *DSK, KGN*, neobank *DOU*, crappy fin tech *IOU, TYR, EML*, even Nuix (!) a sign that investing gamblers are willing to take on more risk?  Surely this would indicate that the market is near a bottom.
> 
> I'd rather see quality large caps going higher before the crap is bought as a sign of a bottom. Banks, CSL are sneaking higher as well while the resources are being hammered down.
> ...



So true @peter2 

I should inform you that my tip in the comp, GIB, went up to 12th place, quite close to your ELE now, on turnover of $540.00 ( Five hundred and forty dollars and nil cents ) having gained 12.5%.

gg


----------



## JohnDe (6 July 2022)

peter2 said:


> Is this "buy the crap " day ?
> Is the buying in any/all the *BNPL* stocks, poorly performing retail *DSK, KGN*, neobank *DOU*, crappy fin tech *IOU, TYR, EML*, even Nuix (!) a sign that investing gamblers are willing to take on more risk?  Surely this would indicate that the market is near a bottom.
> 
> I'd rather see quality large caps going higher before the crap is bought as a sign of a bottom. Banks, CSL are sneaking higher as well while the resources are being hammered down.
> ...




Yes, buying today wasn't really an option. Selling could have been, for some.

RAC up $0.340 (15.74%)


----------



## Belli (7 July 2022)

As the distributions for a couple of ETF's are locked in and due on 18 June, I already know what to do and have done it.  Nothing more to do except wait for some LIC's to report.  No point wondering what they will advise as that's already been determined and I cannot change it.  Plod on.


----------



## Gretsch (8 July 2022)

In hindsight it would have been an opportunity to sell 6 months ago because the gains would have trumped the paltry dividends being paid this year, but still waiting to see what else pays what, especially managed funds.


----------



## Rabbithop (8 July 2022)

No point of regretting. There are still time to cut lesser loss on the Up days till the Fat Lady Boom Bang  Crash..oops Clash concert at end of the year. Only my opinion, Ups 3 steps down 5 steps, up 5 steps, down 10 steps n up 10 steps down 20 steps so is it still a good day?


----------



## Gretsch (8 July 2022)

Time will tell.


----------



## divs4ever (8 July 2022)

Gretsch said:


> In hindsight it would have been an opportunity to sell 6 months ago because the gains would have trumped the paltry dividends being paid this year, but still waiting to see what else pays what, especially managed funds.



the divs. by and large  have been OK for me ( so far  ) would i have been better taking the capital gains  ??

 taking the cash and running for the sidelines isn't my usual game  , so without other reasons to sell i never really considered that option this year


----------



## Belli (9 July 2022)

Gretsch said:


> paltry dividends being paid this year,




As my dividend/distribution income for last FY is up by close to 12% compared with the previous FY, I don't believe the word "paltry" is appropriate.  How did that happen?  Well, 10,000 shares x $0.30c is greater than 1,000 shares x $0.30c when it comes to dividends.  Some of my recent purchases were at a price less than what I have paid previously but greater than some other times before that.  Buy, then walk away and don't look until next time you have funds to invest is my approach.

As for CG there was probably none to negative but I don't have any spreadsheets or whatever to track that stuff. I outsource all the stress and worry about that to others such as those on this forum.  If they are doing it on my behalf I see no need to.

As to hindsight and acting on the past (which you cannot do) tell me the future of the market in say 10 years time.  Six months is a blip when applied to investing as opposed to speculating.

Just my view.


----------



## Rabbithop (9 July 2022)

Belli said:


> As my dividend/distribution income for last FY is up by close to 12% compared with the previous FY, I don't believe the word "paltry" is appropriate.  How did that happen?  Well, 10,000 shares x $0.30c is greater than 1,000 shares x $0.30c when it comes to dividends.  Some of my recent purchases were at a price less than what I have paid previously but greater than some other times before that.  Buy, then walk away and don't look until next time you have funds to invest is my approach.
> 
> As for CG there was probably none to negative but I don't have any spreadsheets or whatever to track that stuff. I outsource all the stress and worry about that to others such as those on this forum.  If they are doing it on my behalf I see no need to.
> 
> ...






Belli said:


> As my dividend/distribution income for last FY is up by close to 12% compared with the previous FY, I don't believe the word "paltry" is appropriate.  How did that happen?  Well, 10,000 shares x $0.30c is greater than 1,000 shares x $0.30c when it comes to dividends.  Some of my recent purchases were at a price less than what I have paid previously but greater than some other times before that.  Buy, then walk away and don't look until next time you have funds to invest is my approach.
> 
> As for CG there was probably none to negative but I don't have any spreadsheets or whatever to track that stuff. I outsource all the stress and worry about that to others such as those on this forum.  If they are doing it on my behalf I see no need to.
> 
> ...



Appreciate your view. My views are.. 
1.Share Market is an Investment Game playing, you can become rich to live in a mansion or poor sleeping on the park bench. Worse scenario, jump off the cliff or hung on the high beam.
2. Depending on your age grp, have the time (20 to 40 yrs) for market to turn around or a limited time to Dementia world. 
3. What's own Financial Capability and dream Goal. 

Your 1st paragraph sounds ok..when and if that stock still pays a same div payout (TLS fixed div payment will revises 3yrs/ 5yrs) I stand to be corrected. This is a stock that I hold on T1 with DRP when company permits it.
T2 n T3 are example that there is stock that one cannot afford to place it at the bottom of the drawer. Having posted this comment there are stocks that can achieve great result..come to mind is CBA, MQG these couple of stocks are just off my head examples.

Your last paragraph shown me you are Bright.
Be Humble...Thankful that you have Forum to Dump your worries and Members to Wake you up.


----------



## Belli (9 July 2022)

Rabbithop said:


> Your 1st paragraph sounds ok..when and if that stock still pays a same div payout (TLS fixed div payment will revises 3yrs/ 5yrs) I stand to be corrected. This is a stock that I hold on T1 with DRP when company permits it.
> T2 n T3 are example that there is stock that one cannot afford to place it at the bottom of the drawer. Having posted this comment there are stocks that can achieve great result..come to mind is CBA, MQG these couple of stocks are just off my head examples.




I should clarify, apart from SOL held outside of the SMSF, both the SMSF and I personally only invest via a few LICs and two ETFs.  As of late funds are directed towards the ETFs.  As a result of that, I generally don't follow individual shares at all.  If one is mentioned on here and I am sufficiently curious - doesn't happen often - I will read some of the annual reports but that is the extent of it.

SOL is an aberration which I originally purchased many, many moons ago thinking it was actually an LIC.  The only recent addition to it was in 2020 during the mini-meltdown when I was about to place some surplus funds and spotted its then price.  It really doesn't fit my approach and I probably shouldn't hold it but does provide some nice travel money late in the FY (Hi there, FNQ) and at Christmas.


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## divs4ever (9 July 2022)

Belli said:


> SOL is an aberration which I originally purchased many, many moons ago thinking it was actually an LIC.



  SOL ,  SVW,  WES and GOW  follow a similar  strategy  , and i would argue  they are still a LIC ( a listed investment company ) not just exclusively holding bonds and shares  ,


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## Gretsch (9 July 2022)

divs4ever said:


> the divs. by and large  have been OK for me ( so far  ) would i have been better taking the capital gains  ??
> 
> taking the cash and running for the sidelines isn't my usual game  , so without other reasons to sell i never really considered that option this year



We all see from different perspectives.
I don't have a problem selling high and buying back low,


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## Belli (9 July 2022)

because what usually happens is


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## divs4ever (9 July 2022)

Gretsch said:


> We all see from different perspectives.
> I don't have a problem selling high and buying back low,



 the selling high ( higher than i bought )  isn't so much the problem 

 it is the buying back in ( meaningfully )  lower than what i sold at  , that catches me  ... like say BSL 

which is why i prefer  selling PART  of holdings  ( unless they have taken an unattractive path , in which case i am unlikely to be buying back in )  i can always accumulate at opportune times


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## sptrawler (9 July 2022)

Smurf1976 said:


> Personally I see it as an occurrence which has the "look and feel" of a recession and the last time we really had that in Australia was the 1990's. Most visible signs = business failures, mass unemployment and a general sense of doom and gloom.



It is all starting to get the self fullfilling prophecy look about it IMO.
Across the board payrises, followed by across the board price rises, followed by interest rate rises, then rinse, wash, repeat.








						Aspiring homeowners facing $120k price hike after builder pulls out
					

When Victorian nurse Jillian Edelsten signed on the dotted line to buy her first property two years ago she...




					www.9news.com.au
				







Smurf1976 said:


> Back to the market, well if you were to take a list of the ASX300 or any other fixed list of stocks that wasn't picked specifically based on recent price action, and then went through them one by one and had a quick look at a chart, well there's an awful lot which have seen serious declines from the peak. It's not hard to find something that's massively down, 50%+, from a peak sometime generally 6 - 12 months ago.
> 
> This isn't a market where just randomly picking stocks, or even a basket of them, will work.



Stocks that reinforce the Media's narrative and give regular blue sky announcements are what the desperate ill informed will be jumping into IMO. There will be a lot of desperate highly geared people who are willing to gamble, the media will give them the rainbow, my guess anything green, clean and high media coverage. Lol
Meanwhile stable dividend paying stocks are always a great pickup in times like this IMO.


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## divs4ever (9 July 2022)

sptrawler said:


> It is all starting to get the self fullfilling prophecy look about it IMO.
> Across the board payrises, followed by across the board price rises, followed by interest rate rises, then rinse, wash, repeat.
> 
> 
> ...



 i have resisted leverage  ( so far )  however   should the market tumble ( more )

 i will most likely run the tape measure over GEAR  and MVW  ( i hold neither currently )

 so far for me  the 'Green  narrative ' has been a complete cess-pit   with CCE and RFX not being the worst misadventures in this niche 

 however i have done very nicely  on coal and oil  , and have largely avoided media companies ( except a very nice ride on TME - TradeMe )

 yes div. payers attract me 

 it is worth keeping track  of which LICs  implement 'dividend-leveling ' as well  they can be severely under-valued in bull-markets


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## Belli (10 July 2022)

Hmm, the concept of dividend smoothing.  Nice in theory but investors may not know that has occurred until *after *the event.  Some in their half-year/full-year reports do give an indication about it (WHF for example) but it depends on the degree to which you delve into annual reports to find that - I came across that by pure chance.


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## divs4ever (10 July 2022)

some like WAX  have gone as far  as monthly updates on the reserve dividends   they hold back   , i am guessing  one factor would be that franking credits for that div. reserve  are not available   and they  had decided to only pay fully franked dividends 

 but yes careful research  can reveal those tiny but useful  details 

 cheers


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## Belli (10 July 2022)

I was going to respond in detail to post #127 regarding franking but decided it wasn't worth the bother.  Suffice to say it displays either a lack of understanding or it's garbled thinking or both.


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## bux2000 (4 August 2022)

So getting back to the title of the thread.................* are we there yet ???????   *


bux


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## divs4ever (4 August 2022)

the XJO is hovering around 7000  and will probably test that level today  , i would think the very patient would vote NO

 the members can answer for themselves  but apart from cherry-picking bargains  i would think they will be uninterested until the XJO dips below 6000 ( and maybe even lower than that )


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## Rabbithop (4 August 2022)

bux2000 said:


> So getting back to the title of the thread.................* are we there yet ???????  *
> 
> 
> bux



Not yet..


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## frugal.rock (4 August 2022)

It's not too late to be looking at Banks... in my opinion only.


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## divs4ever (4 August 2022)

am watching but need my preferred targets lower


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## Rabbithop (4 August 2022)

frugal.rock said:


> It's not too late to be looking at Banks... in my opinion only.



Wait a bit longer...there is no rush...how far away is October....only my opinion.


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## Rabbithop (4 August 2022)

divs4ever said:


> am watching but need my preferred targets lower



Too right....patience...


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## frugal.rock (4 August 2022)

Rabbithop said:


> how far away is October.



Around 57 days...😹
Forgive my ignorance, but, what's special about October this year?  🤔


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## divs4ever (4 August 2022)

Rabbithop said:


> Too right....patience...



 well i am looking  at the smaller ( 'higher risk ' ) banks   because i am hoping  for 'growth  .. now if they hit a pot-hole i think the government will be less likely to save them ( in a way to protect share-holders ) ( more likely to be force-merged into a major )

 and with that potential risk involved  i need more potential upside ( if i am just a foolish worry-wort )


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## divs4ever (4 August 2022)

frugal.rock said:


> Around 57 days...😹
> Forgive my ignorance, but, what's special about October this year?  🤔



  don't some of the banks report about then  ??

 but some are expecting September to be .. dramatic


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