# QRN - QR National



## gsnz1 (20 September 2010)

I am looking at getting a parcel in QR National IPO which i believe will be highly publicised. What are people's thoughts on the float, is it going to be good or bad? With the mining company consortium dropping their bid for the co. after having access to the financials etc leads me to think that it may not be an outstanding investment. Due to the media hype it will get, will it be a good IPO to get into for the initial interest by the public then sell within the first couple of days of trading on asx?
The pre registartion website is www dot qrnshareoffer dot com dot au for anyone that has not heard about it yet and wants to register.
With the international demand for Oz resources QR National will be busy for a while into the future you would have to think.

700 locos, 16000 wagons, 9500 employees 

FY2010 Volumes

Queensland Bulk and Freight
QR National haulage: 14 million tonnes

Queensland Coal
QR National above rail haulage:
180 million tonnes
Central Queensland
Below rail haulage: 185 million tonnes
New South Wales Coal
QR National haulage: 18 million tonnes
Western Australia Bulk
QR National haulage: 46 million tonnes
Intermodal
(Queensland, New South Wales, Victoria,
South Australia and Western Australia)
QR National haulage: 4 million tonnes

Lots to research but I appreciate all feedback
Cheers


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## Junior (20 September 2010)

*Re: QRNational IPO good or bad?*

I have a question.  

Do the Queensland Government hold an AFSL?

By promoting this offering as a sound investment they are providing financial advice to the masses.  My understanding is that they would need to abide by the 'know your client' rule.  This means assessing risk tolerance profiles and ensuring that everyone has completed their Data Collection Forms.  Also they hold a considerable stake in this company, this presents a massive conflict of interest which needs to be fully disclosed.


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## prawn_86 (20 September 2010)

*Re: QRNational IPO good or bad?*

I would personally steer well clear of any float like this that offers incentives for mum & dad investors to buy and hold. All they are trying to do is get a price above market value to strengthen gov coffers and pass the loss on to taxpayers


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## BrightGreenGlow (20 September 2010)

*Re: QRNational IPO good or bad?*

QRNational is poorly run.... I know this.... 1 derailment like the blackmountain one again would cruel the SP. Rail should never have been sold imho. QRN is too focused on Zero Harm that production never gets a chance. This is a strong DO NOT BUY from me anyways.


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## joea (20 September 2010)

*Re: QRNational IPO good or bad?*

Hi
If the collective debt of the states is $240bullion.
If the Federal debt is in excess of $50bullion.
Why would anybody think it would make a profit or pay
a sustainable dividend?
This is not a financial gain for investors. 
It is a deal to keep the people happy who oppose the sale.
Bligh is saying " we need the money, the people oppose the sale"
Solution " you people who oppose it buy it."

 Well Anna is trying to sell us something we already paid for.


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## BrightGreenGlow (20 September 2010)

*Re: QRNational IPO good or bad?*



joea said:


> Hi
> If the collective debt of the states is $240bullion.
> If the Federal debt is in excess of $50bullion.
> Why would anybody think it would make a profit or pay
> ...





I will guarantee everyone here the SP will drop big time. Every employee that receives the $1,000 of free shares are planning on selling out straight away. This is terrible news... watch it drop!!


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## lusk (20 September 2010)

*Re: QRNational IPO good or bad?*



BrightGreenGlow said:


> I will guarantee everyone here the SP will drop big time. Every employee that receives the $1,000 of free shares are planning on selling out straight away. This is terrible news... watch it drop!!




I'm sure they would make everyone hang onto them for x years before they can sell.

Don't know why people bother with floats they always seem to end with people getting burned but yet everyone lines up for them.


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## skc (20 September 2010)

*Re: QRNational IPO good or bad?*

QR is a pretty inefficient organisation that's for sure, although my last experience dealing with them was a good 5-6 years ago. They sent about 8 ppl to a meeting with a contractor talking about building a chainwire fence that's may be worth $30K... 

Anyhow, are the financials and price even out yet? If not then may be we shouldn't be so quick jumping to conclusions?

To me the macro industry trend is positive, the internal management is horrible but that also means lot of room for improvement, the balance sheet is quite strong... so at the right price it could be a decent investment.



prawn_86 said:


> I would personally steer well clear of any float like this that offers incentives for mum & dad investors to buy and hold. All they are trying to do is get a price above market value to strengthen gov coffers and pass the loss on to taxpayers




Don't forget that the tax payers are also voters so Anna Bligh can't screw them too much.




Junior said:


> I have a question.
> 
> Do the Queensland Government hold an AFSL?




The same situation for Jen Hawko spruiking the Myer float! I doubt she had any AFSL!


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## alphaman (20 September 2010)

*Re: QRNational IPO good or bad?*

Prospectus is not even out yet.

But according to SMH, QR is to be valued at about $6.5 billion, after a failed $5 billion bid by major coal companies to buy the rail network. So I guess it will be worth a punt if market cap falls below $5 bil.


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## nukz (20 September 2010)

*Re: QRNational IPO good or bad?*



BrightGreenGlow said:


> I will guarantee everyone here the SP will drop big time. Every employee that receives the $1,000 of free shares are planning on selling out straight away. This is terrible news... watch it drop!!




Perhaps employees can short it? lol


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## skc (20 September 2010)

*Re: QRNational IPO good or bad?*



BrightGreenGlow said:


> I will guarantee everyone here the SP will drop big time. Every employee that receives the $1,000 of free shares are planning on selling out straight away. This is terrible news... watch it drop!!




QR only has ~9000 employees so that's $9m worth of shares at most... hardly going to cause a ripple.


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## BrightGreenGlow (20 September 2010)

*Re: QRNational IPO good or bad?*

Of course that wouldn't affect it much but only silly people will buy QR. Rail is too dependant on everything going right. Remember the Vic, Tasmania and PN-NZ rail? Failures. The only successful privately owned rail is that Canadian one... BNSC or w/e its called.


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## gsnz1 (20 September 2010)

*Re: QRNational IPO good or bad?*

There is a lot of negative feedback from people i've spoken to today (mum and dad type investors and work colleagues) and read on the various forums. I am going to spend some time researching and wait for all the fine print to come out and the prospectus. I dont know much about the directors and other top ranking staff yet either (is there a chance they could make things work? Unlikely with the major shareholder being a band of politicians?)  


> lusk Re: QRNational IPO good or bad?
> 
> I'm sure they would make everyone hang onto them for x years before they can sell.
> 
> Don't know why people bother with floats they always seem to end with people getting burned but yet everyone lines up for them.




Lusk, some IPO's are ok. take GUF as an example.

Thanks all for the feedback.

PS: If it was Peter Beattie selling the IPO and not Anna Bligh, would that change any opinions? Politicians are all spin doctors no matter what their name is but it appears people i have spoken to have a little more respect for him over the current leader


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## laurie (20 September 2010)

*Queensland Rail National Float*

Does anyone here know how this works apparently there is no price given for the IPO yet they are starting to ask people to pre-register! why would you want to buy something without knowing the price first surely the Queensland Government must know by now what is the going price otherwise how do they know how much they are going to get 

laurie


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## ParleVouFrancois (20 September 2010)

*Re: Queensland Rail National Float*

Does anyone have any historical data for public assets that have been floated? e.g. Telstra has been a bit of a dog since listing, any other public assets I should look at before considering investing in QR? Does the australian government have a habit of selling off assets at too high a price?


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## skc (20 September 2010)

*Re: QRNational IPO good or bad?*



laurie said:


> Does anyone here know how this works apparently there is no price given for the IPO yet they are starting to ask people to pre-register! why would you want to buy something without knowing the price first surely the Queensland Government must know by now what is the going price otherwise how do they know how much they are going to get
> 
> laurie




The price will be determined based on a process called bookbuild. The same was done for the recent Myer float. Read it up.



ParleVouFrancois said:


> Does anyone have any historical data for public assets that have been floated? e.g. Telstra has been a bit of a dog since listing, any other public assets I should look at before considering investing in QR? Does the australian government have a habit of selling off assets at too high a price?




Australian govt has a habit of selling things too cheaply. Some of the large floats in the past include CBA, QAN, CSL. Here's an academic paper about underpricing IPOs if you are interested...

http://www.agsm.edu.au/eajm/0112/pdf/gong.pdf

Telstra was a special case. Telstra 1 was actually a great bargin ($2.50 from memory and it rose to $9 at the dot com peak), T2 was sold at the top of the cycle - so well done to the govn't and bad luck to Mum & Dad, while T3 was completely destroyed by the govn't changing the rules of the game.

Having said all that each float prob needs to be considered on its own merits.


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## ROE (20 September 2010)

*Re: QRNational IPO good or bad?*

good or bad we don't know until the prospectus is available
I dont rule anything in or out until I have information in hand

Crazy compare it to Telstra or other floats, each floats has its own risk
and merits and up to you whether you want to participate.

if you see bad floats like Myers and Kathmandu and stuff that because the number doesn't add up 

then you see float like JB hi-fi from private equity and our beloved Woolie 
recapitalises from a near dead experience and went on to dominate the market


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## So_Cynical (20 September 2010)

*Re: QRNational IPO good or bad?*



BrightGreenGlow said:


> Rail is too dependant on everything going right. Remember the Vic, Tasmania and PN-NZ rail? Failures.




Its a monopoly operator, as im assuming it has a monopoly hauling coal to the coast in central QLD...hard to see it as a failure, at least in the short term.

I wonder if QRN owns the tracks/network or if its just the rolling stock etc. :dunno:

-------------------

Anyway lots of potential if a few things go there way...first they will have to clean out all the useless employee's, maybe half of them would have to go...get some kick ass management that can transform QRN into a lean, mean, profit driven organisation.

I pre-registered. 

-------------------------



ParleVouFrancois said:


> Does anyone have any historical data for public assets that have been floated? e.g. Telstra has been a bit of a dog since listing, any other public assets I should look at before considering investing in QR? Does the australian government have a habit of selling off assets at too high a price?




CSL floated in 1994 at $2.40 per share....traded at close to $100.00 per share in 2006/7 before the 3 for 1 split.


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## ROE (20 September 2010)

*Re: QRNational IPO good or bad?*



skc said:


> QR only has ~9000 employees so that's $9m worth of shares at most... hardly going to cause a ripple.




Typical Chinese whisper because your mate think it's a bad deal without any hard facts ...

the prospectus isn't out and every man and a dog has a bad opinion on it 

bad deal, price drop, everyone sell out, bad management, badly run.
mum and dad get burned, anything else 

a wise man once said

“A wise man makes his own decisions, an ignorant man follows public opinion”


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## Jonathan111 (20 September 2010)

*Re: QR National IPO: Good or bad?*

Does anyone know why the mining group dropped their bid?
($5.1b  up from $4.85b)

Is $7b too much?







http://www.businessspectator.com.au/bs.nsf/Article/Miners-pull-out-of-rail-offer-95B9M?OpenDocument

_



			The Queensland Coal Industry Rail Group (QCIRG) has dropped its $5.1 billion bid for the coal-haulage rail network of QR, the group said. 

The consortium of miners, led by BHP Billiton Ltd, Rio Tinto Ltd and Xstrata put together the bid to counter a plan by the Queensland government to float QR National on the stock exchange by the end of the year. 

In a statement, the consortium said it would not be lodging the offer as "QCIRG is not able to satisfy its, or the Queensland government's, requirements for the bid". 

"QCIRG appreciates the efforts made by the Queensland state government during negotiations," the statement said. 

"QCIRG reiterates that coal rail system arrangements are critical for the industry and it will seek to work constructively with the Queensland government on alternative arrangements to realise system efficiency and future growth."
		
Click to expand...


_


http://www.bulkhandling.com.au/news...-up-their-bid-for-qrs-coal-rail-track-network

_



			The consortium, known as the Queensland Coal Industry Rail Group (QCIRG) and chaired by former NSW premier Nick Greiner, was this week reported to have raised its bid for the coal rail track network from $4.85bn to around $5.1bn or $5.2bn, apparently in an attempt to head off state government plans to float QR National's coal and bulk freight assets.
Queensland Premier Anna Bligh and her Treasurer Andrew Fraser have so far held firm in their ambition to sell QR National’s integrated rail network and freight operator into an initial public offering (IPO) before the end of the year.
However, the coal miners in QCIRG are concerned that the structure of the sale will stifle competition and growth of the network. In response, they have banded together, with Nick Greiner at the helm, to offer a simpler transaction immune to the vagaries of world equity markets.
“We have considered the alternative model under the IPO and associated regulation and legislation and strongly believe it does not represent an optimal or even reasonable basis for assuring the future of the state’s major export industry,” said Mr Greiner, chairman, QCIRG.
“The QCIRG offer has four goals: to encourage fair and open access, optimise network performance, enable early system expansions, and encourage rail haulage competition, all with flow-on benefits through enhanced investment, employment and royalties.”
The QCIRG offer, for the below track rail assets, excludes QR National’s above rail rolling stock assets and the freight businesses of QR National. In contrast, the IPO option is for both the above and below rail assets, including trains.
QCIRG, which represents 98% of Queensland’s miners, has so far been denied access to the QR National data room.
		
Click to expand...


_


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## Julia (20 September 2010)

*Re: QR National IPO: Good or bad?*



joea said:


> Well Anna is trying to sell us something we already paid for.



Exactly.

Heard an interview with some 'specialist' in this area who was warning investors about getting too enthusiastic about this float.  He suggested there is much old infrastructure which needs expensive replacement and which won't be taken into account in the IPO financial figures.

I never touch floats.  Plenty of time to buy in if they're successful.


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## BrightGreenGlow (20 September 2010)

*Re: QR National IPO: Good or bad?*

This is a good point Julia. The current Newlands like is very old CT technology and open wire telemetry. Does the GAP project figure into the float.. did the Government say they would pay for it???


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## BrightGreenGlow (20 September 2010)

*Re: QRNational IPO good or bad?*



So_Cynical said:


> I wonder if QRN owns the tracks/network or if its just the rolling stock etc. :dunno:




QRN owns EVERYTHING coal related to QR. control, track, drivers, maintenance, rollingstock everything Coal.

And you're wrong about the dependant... you obviously don't know how much money is wasted on derailments/dewirements..... MASSIVE Millions per hour...  Government cant pay for this cost once its privatized.


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## Smurf1976 (21 September 2010)

*Re: QRNational IPO good or bad?*



BrightGreenGlow said:


> Of course that wouldn't affect it much but only silly people will buy QR. Rail is too dependant on everything going right. Remember the Vic, Tasmania and PN-NZ rail? Failures. The only successful privately owned rail is that Canadian one... BNSC or w/e its called.



The problem isn't rail per se, but rather the reality that private owners have a habit of running it into the ground through a short term focus until it literally stops functioning at all.


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## So_Cynical (21 September 2010)

*Re: QRNational IPO good or bad?*



BrightGreenGlow said:


> QRN owns EVERYTHING coal related to QR. control, track, drivers, maintenance, rollingstock everything Coal.
> 
> And you're wrong about the dependant... you obviously don't know how much money is wasted on derailments/dewirements..... MASSIVE Millions per hour...  Government cant pay for this cost once its privatized.




So it is a monopoly..its a licence to print money, RIO is totally dependant on those tracks to move there coal....while im sure there's lots of waste (i used to work for a Govt Dept ) im also sure that those issues would be addressed over time.

Same as they were with Telstra and the commonwealth bank....some of you Qlders are really getting your Bananas in a twist over this...he he .


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## laurie (21 September 2010)

*Re: QR National IPO: Good or bad?*

Could buy half of what you want from the float [insurance if it goes up] then your other half to average your cost down if it falls after the float then again there is this sweetener 




> Loyalty bonus Shares
> Simply hold onto your Shares allocated through the QR National Share Offer for a specified period of time. The number of loyalty bonus Shares you receive will be based on the number of Shares you are allocated and hold. When you receive them, loyalty bonus Shares provide an additional effective discount by increasing the number of Shares you hold for no additional payment.




laurie


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## gsnz1 (21 September 2010)

*Re: QR National IPO: Good or bad?*



> Quote:
> Loyalty bonus Shares
> Simply hold onto your Shares allocated through the QR National Share Offer for a specified period of time. The number of loyalty bonus Shares you receive will be based on the number of Shares you are allocated and hold. When you receive them, loyalty bonus Shares provide an additional effective discount by increasing the number of Shares you hold for no additional payment.




That is a concerning statement. a) This means further dilution. b) If it as good a deal as Qld Govt makes out its going to be, why would they need to give people "loyalty shares"? Surely if its a good company to invest in, people will hold onto their shares anyways.


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## BrightGreenGlow (21 September 2010)

*Re: QRNational IPO good or bad?*



So_Cynical said:


> So it is a monopoly..its a licence to print money, RIO is totally dependant on those tracks to move there coal....while im sure there's lots of waste (i used to work for a Govt Dept ) im also sure that those issues would be addressed over time.
> 
> Same as they were with Telstra and the commonwealth bank....some of you Qlders are really getting your Bananas in a twist over this...he he .




You can address a derailment? lol
Ohh mate.... you have nooo idea.... lol 

Wait until QRN runs the infrastructure into the ground and see who has to rebuy it. LOL


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## laurie (21 September 2010)

*Re: QR National IPO: Good or bad?*



gsnz1 said:


> That is a concerning statement. a) This means further dilution. b) If it as good a deal as Qld Govt makes out its going to be, why would they need to give people "loyalty shares"? Surely if its a good company to invest in, people will hold onto their shares anyways.




I don't think there will be any further dilution I may be wrong but maybe these shares will come from the Government holdings 

laurie


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## So_Cynical (21 September 2010)

*Re: QRNational IPO good or bad?*



BrightGreenGlow said:


> You can address a derailment? lol
> Ohh mate.... you have nooo idea.... lol




Ok ill play ... why do QRN trains derail? is this not to do with the usual govt employee Incompetence? am i missing something here? :dunno:

Please explain John.  im my mind trains derail due to either.

Mechanical failure (wheel falls off train/tracks not straight, two far apart etc)
Human error (switch in wrong position/driver somehow thinks red means green)

I think that about covers it.


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## robusta (21 September 2010)

*Re: QRNational IPO good or bad?*



So_Cynical said:


> So it is a monopoly..its a licence to print money, RIO is totally dependant on those tracks to move there coal....while im sure there's lots of waste (i used to work for a Govt Dept ) im also sure that those issues would be addressed over time.
> 
> Same as they were with Telstra and the commonwealth bank....some of you Qlders are really getting your Bananas in a twist over this...he he .




got to love investing in a monoploy but can QR National set prices? or is it controlled by legislation.


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## boofhead (21 September 2010)

*Re: QRNational IPO good or bad?*



So_Cynical said:


> Ok ill play ... why do QRN trains derail? is this not to do with the usual govt employee Incompetence? am i missing something here? :dunno:
> 
> Please explain John.  im my mind trains derail due to either.
> 
> ...




Land slips. It happened recently in Tasmania.


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## So_Cynical (21 September 2010)

*Re: QRNational IPO good or bad?*



boofhead said:


> Land slips. It happened recently in Tasmania.




Central Queensland was pretty flat the last time i was there....ok flash floods.


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## BrightGreenGlow (23 September 2010)

*Re: QRNational IPO good or bad?*



So_Cynical said:


> Ok ill play ... why do QRN trains derail? is this not to do with the usual govt employee Incompetence? am i missing something here? :dunno:
> 
> Please explain John.  im my mind trains derail due to either.
> 
> ...




lol... Drivers going to fast, points moving, heat buckles, floods, level crossing accidents, flat wheels, broken rail... the list goes on.

It takes one of these things to go wrong and you see 3km long trains in the dirt sprawled out.. 

Here is the black mountain one:
http://www.home.railscene.com/zanatta/blakmt01/blakmt01.html


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## BrightGreenGlow (23 September 2010)

*Re: QRNational IPO good or bad?*



robusta said:


> got to love investing in a monoploy but can QR National set prices? or is it controlled by legislation.




Pacific National also run on the Goonyella system.


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## joea (23 September 2010)

*Re: QR National IPO: Good or bad?*

Hi.
Think of it this way.
When somebody buys a second hand vehicle, they are looking to get almost a new vehicle at a second hand price.
On the other hand the seller is trying to sell a second hand vehicle for almost a new price.
They do not equate, so when you buy, you will soon find out any problems.
Note ***** after you buy.!!!
I have read somewhere one of the coal suppliers are thinking of doing their own deal.
Politicians know the tax payer has an unlimited supply of money, they can even ensure it.
The problem is they cannot seem to understand that the tax payer it much better informed these days, and are demanding value for money.

Finally it is obvious that there is going to be a wake up call for some state governments in the very near future.
Cheers


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## Boggo (23 September 2010)

*Re: QR National IPO: Good or bad?*

Why am I reminded of Telstra every time I see this ad for QR National


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## McCoy Pauley (23 September 2010)

*Re: QR National IPO: Good or bad?*

For those Eureka Report subscribers, there are a couple of articles in yesterday's edition that might be of interest.  They certainly don't paint a rosy picture, but in deference to Alan Kohler's business model, I won't divulge more than that.


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## So_Cynical (23 September 2010)

*Re: QR National IPO: Good or bad?*



Boggo said:


> Why am I reminded of Telstra every time I see this ad for QR National




Some people did great outa Telstra....



			
				http://www.aph.gov.au/library/pubs/chron/2003-04/04chr03.htm said:
			
		

> *The Telstra share offer opened on 15 October 1997*. By the close of applications on 3 November 1997, 1.8 million Australians had applied for shares. Of the Telstra employees eligible to subscribe for shares under the Telstra employee share scheme, 92 per cent took up the offer.* Shares were issued at $3.30 payable by two instalments: the first $1.95* ($2.00 for institutions) payable on application and the second $1.25 ($1.30 for institutions) payable in November 1998.
> 
> Telstra shares were first traded on the Australian stock exchange on 17 November 1997, opening at $2.60 with a high of $2.75 before closing at $2.67,* a premium of 37 per cent*.




Peaked at just over $9 in October/November 1998...so a lazy 170+%  yep Telstra was a disaster only for those that held past the top.


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## poverty (23 September 2010)

*Re: QR National IPO: Good or bad?*



So_Cynical said:


> Some people did great outa Telstra....
> 
> 
> 
> Peaked at just over $9 in October/November 1998...so a lazy 170+%  yep Telstra was a disaster only for those that held past the top.




But who the hell could have known where the top was?


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## So_Cynical (23 September 2010)

*Re: QR National IPO: Good or bad?*



poverty said:


> But who the hell could have known where the top was?




Well everyone that's still holding from the floats sure as hell knows what a bottom looks like.  but seriously ...as if anyone would hold right thru that, from $9 to $2.60  even as the SP is falling down the other side of the peak, trending down for years, with all the negative press and outlook.

borrowing to pay dividends .. how could anyone just keep holding. :dunno:


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## matty77 (24 September 2010)

*Re: QR National IPO: Good or bad?*

Again I deal with them alot, and they are a basket case compared to other rail companies. My guess it will take a dive, anything involving a 'nationalised mum and dad investor strategy' is going to fail... telstra anyone?

Maybe in a couple of years time once QR have mainstreamed their system into the private sector and learn to make a profit, sack half the staff and reduce costs then the shares will be worth something.

Yes lots of generalisations, but too many people employed in a government company that is too over managed IMHO.


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## ROE (24 September 2010)

*Re: QR National IPO: Good or bad?*



matty77 said:


> Again I deal with them alot, and they are a basket case compared to other rail companies. My guess it will take a dive, anything involving a 'nationalised mum and dad investor strategy' is going to fail... telstra anyone?
> 
> Maybe in a couple of years time once QR have mainstreamed their system into the private sector and learn to make a profit, sack half the staff and reduce costs then the shares will be worth something.
> 
> Yes lots of generalisations, but too many people employed in a government company that is too over managed IMHO.




I'm not defending QR National because the prospectus is not out but if you want to give a true pictures of government float let stack it up shall we..

Like I said before each investment has its own merits and risk


CSL: 2.30  Now $101 (factoring in 3 for 1 split)
     45 times return without dividend

CBA: $5.40 Now $52.40
     9 times return without dividend

TLS: We all know about it arent we and we use them as benchmark for all government float  

BankWest $2.06 got bought out at $4.25 
     double the money

Tabcorp $2.16  now $6.88

and there are a few more all make them multi times return without counting dividend.

even if TLS goes broke and you participate in all government float you what? 50-55 times better off 

Are we broke yet buying government asset??

so look like mum and dad investors you call them arent that bad  after all, go mum and dad


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## matty77 (24 September 2010)

*Re: QR National IPO: Good or bad?*

That data is pretty useless really, can you compare it to the average rise/fall of the ASX over the same period and how the shares performed against it? Better or worse etc?

Also curios how each share performed within the first 3 months of IPO on a daily basis?


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## laurie (25 September 2010)

*Re: QR National IPO: Good or bad?*

Ok lets play a little game here what do you believe given other floats in recent times the price will be for the float 

1. $1 - $1.50
2. $1.50 - $2
3. $2 - $2.5
4. $2.5 - $3
5. $3 - $3.5
6. $3.5 -------->

my guess is point 3 and depending what I get I may consider it prefer #2 though 

laurie


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## jonnycage (25 September 2010)

*Re: QR National IPO: Good or bad?*

i wonder if all the mum and dad investors that bought the telstra shares at 7 bucks with government promotion as a great investment will go for this : )

no thanks

j c


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## matty77 (25 September 2010)

*Re: QR National IPO: Good or bad?*



laurie said:


> Ok lets play a little game here what do you believe given other floats in recent times the price will be for the float
> 
> 1. $1 - $1.50
> 2. $1.50 - $2
> ...





point 5. - more of a question though, what % up or down will the price be after the first week?


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## laurie (26 September 2010)

*Re: QR National IPO: Good or bad?*



matty77 said:


> point 5. - more of a question though, what % up or down will the price be after the first week?




Ah that's the $64,000 question not too sure if the employees that received $1000 of shares free can sell! and don't forget the loyalty shares if you don't sell so people may hold onto their lot

laurie


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## shinobi346 (28 September 2010)

*Re: QR National IPO: Good or bad?*

In the news today they are worried about whats going to happen to federal government's budget when the high commodity prices start dropping off. Most of QRN business is in moving coal, iron ore and bulk freight so it can't be good for them either when it hits.


Quote:
Originally Posted by So_Cynical View Post
Ok ill play ... why do QRN trains derail? is this not to do with the usual govt employee Incompetence? am i missing something here?

Please explain John. im my mind trains derail due to either.

    * Mechanical failure (wheel falls off train/tracks not straight, two far apart etc)
    * Human error (switch in wrong position/driver somehow thinks red means green)

I think that about covers it.
Land slips. It happened recently in Tasmania. 


One more, idiots rocking trains and barely anything can be done aboutit except telling these lowlifes to move on.


----------



## matty77 (28 September 2010)

*Re: QR National IPO: Good or bad?*

Most common reason why trains are delayed in QLD is due to floods.  That seriously covers 90% of the situations that happen in QLD.

Other states are different though, for example in NT you also get flooding AND lines buckling in the heat.


----------



## qldfrog (3 October 2010)

Hi, I thought it would be good to start a thread on what could be a very big float.
I did record my interest for as many entries as possible but until the price is known, it is just to keep options open;
I also can add that the notion of the state gov keeping a high power role there does not inspire much confidence.
Anyone else following this saga?


----------



## YELNATS (3 October 2010)

*Re: QR National IPO*

Been caught out on many IPO's in the past. I can't imagine that this one would be let go at any bargain price for retail investors. 

I'm prepared to wait and see how it lists before I decide whether to be part of this action.


----------



## Tatts (4 October 2010)

*Re: QR National IPO*

There is already a thread on this
https://www.aussiestockforums.com/forums/showthread.php?t=20608&highlight=national


----------



## BrightGreenGlow (4 October 2010)

*Re: QR National IPO: Good or bad?*



matty77 said:


> Most common reason why trains are delayed in QLD is due to floods.  That seriously covers 90% of the situations that happen in QLD.
> 
> Other states are different though, for example in NT you also get flooding AND lines buckling in the heat.




HAHAHA.... Didn't know you worked in the Rail business.  Because that 90% is a massive lie... I would say mechanical and speed would be much higher. Floods not really due to the weather stations and creek level readings they have set up. Often trains will not run if there is a 1% chance of water level being over the rail line.


----------



## ROE (4 October 2010)

*Re: QR National IPO: Good or bad?*



matty77 said:


> That data is pretty useless really, can you compare it to the average rise/fall of the ASX over the same period and how the shares performed against it? Better or worse etc?
> 
> Also curios how each share performed within the first 3 months of IPO on a daily basis?




if you plot all those government asset against the ASX say you buy $5000 each float including TLS, you outperform the market by a margin hard to imagine not counting the dividend.

CBA dividend alone pay for your capital many times over 

TLS can go to 0 and you still way way ahead the market...

My experience tell me 
If you keep putting money away and keep investing, the good one will easy pay for the bad one 
many times over


----------



## Julia (4 October 2010)

*Re: QR National IPO: Good or bad?*



ROE said:


> TLS can go to 0 and you still way way ahead the market...



Really?  How does that work?

If you bought $50,000 worth of TLS and it continued its downtrend to become worthless, how exactly are you 'still way ahead the market'?

Meantime, plenty of other companies which are not falling in capital value and still bringing in reasonable dividends.

Or just simply cash during these periods of volatility provides capital protection and decent interest rates.


----------



## So_Cynical (4 October 2010)

*Re: QR National IPO: Good or bad?*



Julia said:


> Really?  How does that work?
> 
> If you bought $50,000 worth of TLS and it continued its downtrend to become worthless, how exactly are you 'still way ahead the market'?




ROE is talking about buying at the float...so T1 was at about 3.60 i think and total gross divi payout per share is something like $6 so therefore your way ahead just on the divi return per share...your PA return would be nothing flash but still ahead.


----------



## ROE (4 October 2010)

*Re: QR National IPO: Good or bad?*



Julia said:


> Really?  How does that work?
> 
> If you bought $50,000 worth of TLS and it continued its downtrend to become worthless, how exactly are you 'still way ahead the market'?
> 
> ...




read from the beginning 

$5000 into CSL at float
$5000 into CBA at float
$5000 into TLS at float
$5000 into TAH at Float
$5000 into Bankwest at Float
$5000 into NSW Tab at Float

$5000 into CSL now roughly $220,000 bucks
$5000 into CBA now roughly $45000 bucks etc...
$5000 into TLS count it as $0 
$5000 into Tabcorp now roughly $15000

and on it goes without counting the dividend

so TLS go to zero you still way way ahead, 
even if you buy all 3 TLS and gone to zero and you still way ahead..

$30,000 turn into $300,000 thousand with TLS go to Zero
plus dividend that probably some where up there $350,000 

There is a Chinese saying when the wind blows
some build shelters other build wind mills.

fear drive people to build shelters and not seeing opportunity at hand
one bad TLS float and they brand all government floats are bad not seeing the EXTRAORDINARY return from other floats.

There is  weird thing that happen in the market not many people realise 
when you invest similar money across many good business, eventually you have some bad and rotten apples but the one that are not rotten will return
many time more than the rotten ones and you end up much richer
than stacking money in cash or gold 

Many people have bad luck with TLS I count myself lucky and love TLS... I bought T1
got out at $8 and that pay 20% for my house now all paid off from the return of the market..

didnt go to T2 but went into T3 and sold out at $4.50  I went back in at $2.92 recently
now got my dividends paid and the share is down to $2.62 or something...no fear 
I'm used to the rotten one and the good one, all part of the long term plan


----------



## Wysiwyg (4 October 2010)

*Re: QR National IPO: Good or bad?*

I heard Courier Mail financial reporter comment that Queenslanders will be able to buy the shares at a discount. I think that discount will be bumped down on commencement of trading.


----------



## BrightGreenGlow (5 October 2010)

*Re: QR National IPO: Good or bad?*

Hmm I believe QRNational employees will get the chance to buy more discounted shares but the average Queenslander non-employee of QRN will only get a better place in the queue than the scum from other states.  lol


----------



## laurie (6 October 2010)

*Re: QR National IPO: Good or bad?*

What about lead managers that offer their clients shares in QR e.g. CommSec!
are they at a discount or just guarantee your parcel 

laurie


----------



## BrightGreenGlow (8 October 2010)

*Re: QR National IPO: Good or bad?*

The only discount is for employees. QLD residents get a preference only.


----------



## robusta (10 October 2010)

*Re: QR National IPO: Good or bad?*

Between $2.50 & $3.00 / share. Float extected to raise about $4.21 billion. Worth having a good hard look at fundamentals when offer document released.


----------



## qldfrog (10 October 2010)

*Re: QR National IPO: Good or bad?*

price bracket $2.5 to $2.8 for individuals: total value of $6.8 to $7.6 billions
remember the last offer by the coal consortium was at 4.8 I would expect a max real value of around 5 to 6 billions;
This is overpriced, still has a huge qld gov involvment (up to 40% shares) and for 3 years will have to carry overemployment;
moreover just $3 billions debts;
I will not touch this one;
You can gamble and make a profit (may happen) but you can not buy on value IMHO.


----------



## NanoDuke (11 October 2010)

*Re: QR National IPO: Good or bad?*

From newsdotcomdotau's article "QR National investors to pay up to $3 a share" 10/10/10



> "Queensland residents will receive one loyalty bonus share for every 15 shares allocated under the retail offer and held until December 7, 2011," she said.
> 
> "Non-Queensland residents will receive one loyalty bonus share for every 20 shares."




So the "discount" in question is more bonus shares when compared to other states.


----------



## joea (11 October 2010)

*Re: QR National IPO: Good or bad?*

On the one hand we have Bligh talking up the QRN float as a great deal for investors, with coal being a major component of its freight.
On the other we see Gillard with the MRRT and a Carbon Tax, which will put up freight cost.
At the same time the reduction of coal export, because of the above two, compound the probem of profitability.

On top of this the 40% component of the Bligh government will be sold down by 2012.

Fundamentally how would you work this out?.

Cheers


----------



## ROE (11 October 2010)

*Re: QR National IPO: Good or bad?*

After reading the prospectus this is one business that
will never be into my superstar portfolio.

Myer, Kathmandu and now QR National all failed simple test...

Next 

stock market is great you just sit around all year until something
good come along and play in your favour then you pump the cash in and watch it rise to superstar status


----------



## Joe Blow (11 October 2010)

*Re: QRN - QR National IPO*

Now that the proposed ASX code is known, this thread has been renamed and moved into the *Stocks Q-Z* forum.


----------



## skcots (11 October 2010)

*Re: QRN - QR National IPO*

http://www.smh.com.au/business/would-rich-dad-buy-qr-national-20101011-16f72.html


----------



## Wysiwyg (11 October 2010)

*Re: QR National IPO: Good or bad?*



qldfrog said:


> for 3 years will have to carry overemployment;



G'day. Am wondering who told you that lie about over employment in this company?


----------



## billv (12 October 2010)

*Re: QRN - QR National IPO*



skcots said:


> http://www.smh.com.au/business/would-rich-dad-buy-qr-national-20101011-16f72.html



Yep, its not looking good.
Running trains is a very expensive business, is highly unionised and with all the rules and regulations you can't make any real money.

QR in my opinion is a liability, the QLD gov knows this and wants to get it off its hands


----------



## qldfrog (12 October 2010)

*Re: QRN - QR National IPO*

Hi Wysiwyg,
I definitively read the 3y somewhere but agree from latest info; 
so let's call this my mistake: one year only or are my readings wrong as well;
; might have to dig further based on union agreements etc to get more info
but withe the qld gov in for up to 40%, don't hold your breath; and yes I did not spent much time reading the prospectus:
 even with 4 registered interests, I won't even waste a minute: all my feelings are run away with such an overprice.......
Might get in later on if it is properly valued (-20% and this did not include the 3nillion new liability so will have to fall hard before it even become a gamble)
but my opinion only;
Telstra shares were overpriced as well, i staid clear yet could have made a nice quick profit, took 10 years to reach value...Time will tell


----------



## Wysiwyg (12 October 2010)

*Re: QRN - QR National IPO*



qldfrog said:


> Hi Wysiwyg,
> I definitively read the 3y somewhere but agree from latest info;
> so let's call this my mistake: one year only or are my readings wrong as well;
> ; might have to dig further based on union agreements etc to get more info
> but withe the qld gov in for up to 40%, don't hold your breath; and yes I did not spent much time reading the prospectus:



No worries Qldfrog, my reliable source has noticed increased hiring and training in the coal division due to increased haulage commitments and yes there is a three year agreement in place regarding employment. There is also Pacific National (Asciano)  knocking on doors so it will definitely be a (more?) competitive market. 

I read somewhere that Warren Buffet invested in a railway company and a quick search found he did in 2007.  Not pushing QRN but they are well established in the coal & freight market.  



> Buffett recently built an 11% position in North America's largest rail company (by market capitalization): Burlington Northern Santa Fe (BNI, news, msgs). And that's not the only railroad in his sights.
> 
> Railroads aren't exactly new technology, but the stocks of these companies have tripled over the past three years.


----------



## evo1965 (13 October 2010)

*Re: QRN - QR National IPO*

This is straight from their offer page, 
Quote :
Attractive package of retail incentives
As a retail investor you are entitled to an attractive package of retail incentives only available through the Share Offer.

•Discount of 10 cents per share
•Pay no more than $2.80 per share
•Loyalty bonus shares
•No brokerage fees
•Guaranteed allocation of shares
•Benefits for Queensland resident investors


----------



## evo1965 (13 October 2010)

*Re: QRN - QR National IPO*

Hopefully not another Telstra .Slowly getting money back through dividends at least.


----------



## laurie (14 October 2010)

*Re: QRN - QR National IPO*



evo1965 said:


> This is straight from their offer page,
> Quote :
> Attractive package of retail incentives
> As a retail investor you are entitled to an attractive package of retail incentives only available through the Share Offer.
> ...




They would say that but they have to be joking at $2.8! it should be closer to $2.30 dont forget IPO's have been difficult to float in recent times and if they put up a figure like $2.8 it may scare off a lot of Mum & Dad investors 

laurie


----------



## McCoy Pauley (14 October 2010)

*Re: QRN - QR National IPO*

I admit that I haven't read the prospectus cover to cover, but I don't think I'll purchase shares in QRN.  It needs to be positioned as a capital growth play, because the dividend yield is mediocre, at best.  But I feel that there are some key risks to the capital growth story.  QRN looks like it needs to spend a lot of money in the next few years on capital expenditure.  It also needs to re-negotiate some contracts with current customers and I'm sure Asciano won't be sitting back allowing QRN to cherry pick the best rates for freight haulage.  And then there's the issue of management transitioning from running a government-owned enterprise to a majority privately-owned enterprise.


----------



## So_Cynical (15 October 2010)

*Re: QRN - QR National IPO*

I'm gona pass on this..honestly id rather buy Telstra considering the discount to the float prices.  

Ill go on the record and predict this float will bomb, perhaps up a little over the first few weeks as the instos come in but then down as the reality sinks in.


----------



## joea (15 October 2010)

*Re: QRN - QR National IPO*

Briefing of QRN has been attended by brokers.
Comments from one.
"We attended a briefing by QR National and were disappointed. First dividend will not be until second half of 2011 and will be low and unfranked. Growth in the share price will not come until implied inefficiencies are tackled from 2012 onwards. The offer may suit some investors including index funds and overseas investors, but better opportunities are elsewhere."


----------



## McCoy Pauley (15 October 2010)

*Re: QRN - QR National IPO*



joea said:


> Briefing of QRN has been attended by brokers.
> Comments from one.
> "We attended a briefing by QR National and were disappointed. First dividend will not be until second half of 2011 and will be low and unfranked. Growth in the share price will not come until implied inefficiencies are tackled from 2012 onwards. The offer may suit some investors including index funds and overseas investors, but better opportunities are elsewhere."




Must be one of the few brokers not conflicted and actually capable of passing a rational judgment on the IPO.  So many retail brokers are signed up to promote the float, there's been numerous comments made in the newsletters about how difficult it will be to get analysis.


----------



## gpappy56 (15 October 2010)

*Re: QRN - QR National IPO*

Two silly questions.

Why buy something we already own, which theoretically through income keeps our taxes down (what a joke).

If this is so good why on earth would you sell it.

This will be a dud. There are many other ways to blow your money.


----------



## laurie (25 October 2010)

*Re: QRN - QR National IPO*

Has anyone here decided to buy or are you waiting to see what the float price will be if you are interested getting into QR or not interested at all!.

laurie


----------



## Trevor Perth (25 October 2010)

*Re: QRN - QR National IPO*

Not a lot to go for really!  
The Dividend will not be fully franked but I expect that they will go well.  
The QLD government will not want upset the Queenslander's and will support the price initially if it looks like bombing (IMO).
There is a lot of resistance to the sale in the state.
The retail price will be $2.40 or thereabouts according to the pundits.

Personally I am leaving this one alone.


----------



## pedalofogus (25 October 2010)

*Re: QRN - QR National IPO*



gpappy56 said:


> Two silly questions.
> 
> Why buy something we already own, which theoretically through income keeps our taxes down (what a joke).
> 
> ...




Agreed, there are many other ways to blow your money.  If anyone has their heart set on picking up shares in an ex government-owned investment, maybe they should consider TLS instead.  At least it is paying a decent dividend yield.

Much like TLS, QRN will not perform as well as people are saying.  I'm not saying it isn't a good business, i just think that 2.50 to 3.00 is way too high a price to pay for it.  The PE multiple works out to be approx 20.  People were willing to take on stocks with a PE of 20 prior to the GFC, but 20 is too high when compared with the longer-term PE's of the broader market.

I will be holding onto my pennies and getting into it when it hits $1.50 within 2 years.


----------



## lamta20 (26 October 2010)

*QR National Shares*

Hey just wandering if anyone has the new Qr National share offer package yet? And what do you think of it. Make it or break it?


----------



## JimBob (26 October 2010)

*Re: QRN - QR National IPO*

I was thinking of buying into the IPO as i think it will be well supported by the QLD Government initially who will not want this float to bomb.  However, re-considering, i dont think it is wise to invest for that reason alone so will probably wait and see what happens for a month or two.


----------



## ROE (26 October 2010)

*Re: QR National Shares*



lamta20 said:


> Hey just wandering if anyone has the new Qr National share offer package yet? And what do you think of it. Make it or break it?




I have a brochure for souvenir and good teaching material for my kids some 15 years from now


----------



## skc (27 October 2010)

*Re: QRN - QR National IPO*

I am going to say that QRN will deliver a small stag for the retail guys in the first few days, as long as the overall market doesn't fall into the abyss.

Reasons:

- Low broker interest means lower end of the price range.
- QRN is large enough to attract the likes of index funds who are mandated to buy
- Retail discount of 10c at the lower price end provides a decent buffer

But I am guessing it will only be a matter of 2-5% and probably not worth the trouble for many.


----------



## sptrawler (27 October 2010)

*Re: QRN - QR National IPO*

Won't be touching this with a barge pole after the Bris connect and Rivercity fiascos. Absolutely no credibility left in the Queensland Government. I certainly hope their projected costs and earnings were not carried out by the same company that formulated projected traffic flows for the Rivercity project.


----------



## Boognish (25 November 2010)

$2.80 and all quiet in here... I was tempted to get on board but could not justify it.


----------



## pedalofogus (25 November 2010)

Aren't the lead managers able to 'support' the share price for this first week or so?  It is yet to be seen what sort of impact this has had on the trading this week.

Either way, I still feel that $2.80 is massively over priced for a company like this, even if they do meet those aggressive profit targets that they have set.  

I have my long term price target set at about half of what it is trading at now, approx $1.45.  And i will be waiting patiently for the hype to die down and for it to get to that level before pulling the trigger on it.


----------



## skc (25 November 2010)

*Re: QRN - QR National IPO*



skc said:


> I am going to say that QRN will deliver a small stag for the retail guys in the first few days, as long as the overall market doesn't fall into the abyss.
> 
> Reasons:
> 
> ...




$2.80 so a nice 14% for those retail holders who bought at $2.45. 

Everyone was bearish on this and, as usual, turns out that most people were wrong. Even my bullish sentiment only predicted 2-5% profit...


----------



## Garpal Gumnut (25 November 2010)

*Re: QRN - QR National IPO*



skc said:


> $2.80 so a nice 14% for those retail holders who bought at $2.45.
> 
> Everyone was bearish on this and, as usual, turns out that most people were wrong. Even my bullish sentiment only predicted 2-5% profit...




A good one to be contrarian on. I threw 30k at it.

A few arbs however, in the mix of peasants, being major shareholders, so lets see how it goes.

They may cause problemos for the price.

gg


----------



## prawn_86 (25 November 2010)

Nice hindsight tade GG 

It has surprised me as well. Apparently o/s investors are buying up, but why they would do it now instead of buying before the float i dont know


----------



## ROE (25 November 2010)

yeah I was very surprise it do so well 

The business isn't that crash hot, didn't like the way it deploy capital and the return it generated but that is the market each person buy different stuff 

Trouble is most fund managers dont have a choice but buy up due to the large size of fund they control...

We small investor has size advantage and can pick and chose

Also Oversea investors love a grow story ... buying stock in the US is all about capital grow 
good old boring stable dividend doesn't cut it for them


----------



## JimBob (25 November 2010)

It will be interesting to see how the share price holds up in a months time when the QLD government and the investment banks are no longer propping the price up.  

http://www.theage.com.au/business/g...o-keep-qr-national-afloat-20101121-182le.html

Reading this, it was pretty much a guarantee that it would not go lower than the issue price

Seems to be a lot of overseas buyers at the moment and big volume going through for the first few days.


----------



## Garpal Gumnut (25 November 2010)

prawn_86 said:


> Nice hindsight tade GG
> 
> It has surprised me as well. Apparently o/s investors are buying up, but why they would do it now instead of buying before the float i dont know




Yeh, ha ha, hindsight trades are best.

Any time I let out I'm buying a stock it goes south and selling it goes north.

So I only now brag about my winners.

gg


----------



## BrightGreenGlow (7 January 2011)

I think I remember talking about how QRN will be affected by weather, derailments etc... and that the board members cannot do anything about it... well this was proven true within 6 months.. a nice PNational derailment/wirement and now the floods.


----------



## youngone (20 January 2011)

BrightGreenGlow said:


> I think I remember talking about how QRN will be affected by weather, derailments etc... and that the board members cannot do anything about it... well this was proven true within 6 months.. a nice PNational derailment/wirement and now the floods.




QRN has gone quiet.


----------



## boofhead (4 February 2011)

Surprised upward movement in price $2.92 with all the floods and storms. Press release stating some lines will be quickly reopened. Seems the price is a little overly positive. More rail movements are expected to handle the backlog or something?


----------



## tryin hard (21 February 2011)

This is still on the up. Should i worry about the bonus shares and sell them now; take the money and run. what will they be like in 12 months?? They are picking up some contracts and the floods have not been negative to the SP.


----------



## PWain (28 March 2011)

I'm wondering the very same thing, what to do, what to do?


----------



## watnee (3 April 2011)

Most of the posts re QRN were pretty negative. Those who posted seemed to know their stuff but the sp has marched on to $3.42,as at 01/04/11. What is the attraction for this stock? Does the demand come from overseas Investors, I recall hearing that it was those investors that gave QRN such a promising start or does it come from local investors especially institutional investors? Since 28/03 it has risen by 5% with volumes around 70 ml. As a newbie to this game those figures suggest that those "in the know" have spotted something that is not so readily apparent to others.


----------



## Wysiwyg (3 April 2011)

As stated, coal, with GAPE (Goonyella to Abbot Point Expansion) and iron ore, with a push into the mid west of Western Australia (I assume the Pilbara is off limits) are two key focal points for QR. Coal movement to port is growing year upon year but with additional competition, mainly from Pacific National in Qld., customer satisfaction through reliability, on time delivery and realistic rates are in QR's interest. 

Coal demand equals a growing business while freight movement may go rail if truck (due to high oil/fuel) rates go high.


----------



## rnr (3 April 2011)

Just had a look back at Company announcements since December 2010 and although I could have missed it I couldn't see any mention of this loss of contract in WA.

http://au.news.yahoo.com/thewest/re...news/8520822/grain-handler-does-us-rail-deal/


----------



## youngone (6 April 2011)

Report from Commsec.


A few days ago, Australia’s largest rail freight operator, QR National (QRN) said it expects 660 voluntary redundancies to occur by June 30. QRN shares gained strongly yesterday however have now fallen back to Monday’s trading levels. QRN is down 3.08 pct or 11 cents to $3.46.


----------



## Wysiwyg (6 June 2011)

Wysiwyg said:


> As stated, coal, with GAPE (Goonyella to Abbot Point Expansion) and iron ore, with a push into the mid west of Western Australia (I assume the Pilbara is off limits) are two key focal points for QR.




QR National secures an iron ore haulage agreement with Gindalbie. QR to spend on locomotives, wagons, rail infrastructure and W.A. employees. They don't make these decisions for one or two years in a fading iron ore market. Gotta love the no-idea pessimist posters on this forum. (regarding bear markets and China collapse rararara)


----------



## Wysiwyg (5 September 2011)

Nice agreement secured by leading freight and coal haulage company, QR National. Construction due to begin in 2012.


----------



## Out Too Soon (7 February 2012)

Well I've read trough from the start of the thread, there's a few who I'll ignore because they should be eating humble pie now :  Just like Telstra, QRN has been a good investment despite the fact that it was a huge inefficient govt (& Mason) run joke. Yes Telstra too because I somehow got out at the right time (outtoosoon actually). Had an itchy finger over the QRN sell button for quite a while but it's still doing well, yesterday was a big hiccup open 3.90 close 3.75 but still trending up, so as always the question is when do we/I pull the plug?


----------



## Wysiwyg (7 February 2012)

Obvious profit taking but to know when the daily trend is at the end would cost several profit points.


----------



## Out Too Soon (7 February 2012)

watnee said:


> Most of the posts re QRN were pretty negative. Those who posted seemed to know their stuff but the sp has marched on to $3.42,as at 01/04/11. What is the attraction for this stock? Does the demand come from overseas Investors, I recall hearing that it was those investors that gave QRN such a promising start or does it come from local investors especially institutional investors? Since 28/03 it has risen by 5% with volumes around 70 ml. As a newbie to this game those figures suggest that those "in the know" have spotted something that is not so readily apparent to others.




As with Telstra, what was on offer was tax payer funded infrastructure, difficult to value & run buy a bunch of lazy, nepotic fools, unlike Telstra the infrastructure isn't going the way of the dinosaur ie copper cable is out of date but freight trains aren't about to be replaced by hover cars anytime soon     I love criticising mobs like Telstra & QLD Rail but to extend my loathing to a share float as some here obviously have is foolish : 
   It might be way too late to get on the bandwagon now but who knows. The fact that I'm thinking about selling after a good profit is meaningless as I'm called "out too soon" for a reason  
   Getting rid of all the no-hopers in the staff at QRN is a slow process & finding & training up new staff employed & promoted on merit will also take a long time. Telstras biggest problem has been trying to replace the entrenched dead-weight but it's a battle royal when every apprentice was employed because of who he was related to & every promotion was based on who bent over nicely with his pants down at the last secret Masonic lodge meeting   (haha, I love airing their dirty laundry for them )


----------



## Out Too Soon (15 October 2012)

A planned share buy back http://www.asx.com.au/asx/statistics/displayAnnouncement.do?display=pdf&idsId=01341016 plus healthy out-look plus an upward break-out type triangle on the chart (hey I know what it is even if I can't put a name to it  ). Guess I'll be holding this one for quite a bit longer    (The dividend cheques are nice too) ((I'd buy more but they're already a large part of my portfolio))


----------



## Doris (20 October 2012)

Out Too Soon said:


> A planned share buy back http://www.asx.com.au/asx/statistics/displayAnnouncement.do?display=pdf&idsId=01341016 plus healthy out-look plus an upward break-out type triangle on the chart (hey I know what it is even if I can't put a name to it  ). Guess I'll be holding this one for quite a bit longer    (The dividend cheques are nice too) ((I'd buy more but they're already a large part of my portfolio))




Can you have too much of a good thing?  
Have been in since IPO.

Close yesterday was $3.82. 
Sale of 288.2 million to Qld Gvt after EGM on 21/11/12 @ $3.47 
- same price of 5.9% of QRN to a group of institutions recently.
So with Qld Gvt having a net residual interest of 18.2% (33.9% atm) and $1 billion cash on 21/11/12 how can Newman complain about Bligh's selling the state's assets? 
QRN will pay out of its existing debt facilities.

I'm naive... how long will EPS accretion take, notwithstanding QRN should not have liquidity concerns? 
Prospective share equity is the reason for the hike in SP since the on-market buyback closed on 5/10/12 prior to the govt-buyback announcement on 8/10 = huge volume ($150m) of institutional purchase! 

Hmm. The original notice for 7/11/12 was AGM -- and QRN name change.
Date change so I'll be back from Melbourne for it.


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