# Wheat



## salpal (12 June 2008)

Has anybody noticed the sudden rise of wheat - I am watching London Wheat offered by Ig Markets Nov contract and it has really started to move


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## Pager (12 June 2008)

CBOT wheat futures in Chicago put on US$60 last night, that's US$3000 per contract.

Wheat is highly volatile at the moment, if you want to trade it maybe look at spreads, they will reduce your risk but can still sting.

If bullish look at Selling July 09 and buying March 09, When March becomes the front month reverse the position, when Wheat was going bonkers last year that spread really blew out, if however Wheat takes a dive then that spread will quickly go the other way but at a lot slower rate than an outright buy position, same of course is true if it goes bonkers again you would be far better off with the outright buy.

I put this spread on a few weeks ago but was too early, Wheat took a dive and i got out at breakeven, too early to say Wheats bottomed but it has fallen along way from its highs which although breif were about double its current price. 

After its big price run up just about every farmer with the right soil/planting conditions has been busy cultivating the stuff and a record crop is expected but any bad news or weather and Wheat will remain very volatile.


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## wayneL (12 June 2008)

Beans and Corn limit up too.


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## Temjin (12 June 2008)

I've been waiting for the grains to bottom down. Likewise, I entered too early a few weeks ago and was stopped out.

However, I got back in corn and wheat just 2 days ago. It's quite volatile so my stop loss is quite far away, thus, I'm not expecting a high R return on these trades. (maybe just 2-3 at most)


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## The Once-ler (13 June 2008)

Wheats simply following corn. The corn crop is being downgraded by the hour in the US as the floods take their toll. It's either too late now to replant or the yield will be half. Still time to plant beans, but soon that will be finished as well.

Wheat should not be worth less than corn, so wheat is going up with corn.

The US corn crop will now be 30 million tonnes less than last year.


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## ithatheekret (18 June 2008)

For those that have been following our IPL , you may be interested in a couple of US stocks that I feel have the same prospects . I know Chops has been following one , POT , but there's another IPI .

Cheers


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## MRC & Co (18 June 2008)

Yeh, POT has been consolidating around it's previous high from a few weeks back.  Hit new highs yesterday, but didn't look convincing, tonight looks a lot better!

I think IPL is headed for a similar fate this coming week.

Thx for the IPI idea, is it a new float?  Chart won't show data longer than a few weeks back..........


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## ithatheekret (18 June 2008)

MRC & Co said:


> Thx for the IPI idea, is it a new float?  Chart won't show data longer than a few weeks back..........




Yup , same old rules apply though , watch wait and plan your own entry and exit strategies .

The way ones going it could be the next holy Nellie in capitalization , the currency arbitration can be a pain in the rear though .

I watched Google soar past 3M and was gobsmacked , could happen again , ya neva know ............. weirder things have happened   B .... B ... Barrick


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## Investor123 (6 September 2008)

Wheat may fall on speculation that record global production will outpace demand, boosting grain inventories.

Growers worldwide will collect 670.8 million metric tons in the year ending May 31, up 9.9 percent from the prior year, the U.S. Department of Agriculture said last month. Global stockpiles will increase 18 percent to 136.2 million tons, the USDA said.

Basically the world is awash in wheat supplies.

Dir Mvmt Index signal SELL on the Daily chart

Shorted 1 lot of Wheat Dec 08 at 755.00
Stop level at 793.00
Target level at 720.00


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## Investor123 (9 September 2008)

Investor123 said:


> Wheat may fall on speculation that record global production will outpace demand, boosting grain inventories.
> 
> Growers worldwide will collect 670.8 million metric tons in the year ending May 31, up 9.9 percent from the prior year, the U.S. Department of Agriculture said last month. Global stockpiles will increase 18 percent to 136.2 million tons, the USDA said.
> 
> ...




On 5 September I had shorted 1 lot of Wheat Dec 08 at 755.00, stop level at 793.00, target level at 720.00. 

Wheat fell, extending a slump to a three-month low, on speculation that record global production will outpace demand, boosting grain inventories. 

Growers worldwide will collect 670.8 million metric tons in the year ending May 31, up 9.9 percent from the previous year, the U.S. Department of Agriculture said last month. 

Currently Wheat Dec 08 contract is trading at 732.40, unrealised profit is US$1130 (value of $1 is US$50).

The perception is the world crop is getting bigger. US Dollar strengthening has also helped to push wheat price lower.


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## Investor123 (9 September 2008)

In the current environment, Europe, UK, Australia, New Zealand are all cutting interest rate, while US is done with its cut. So base on interest rate differentiate, USD appreciates against EUR, GBP, AUD, NZD. This is bad for commodities in general.


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## Investor123 (10 September 2008)

On 5 September I had shorted 1 lot of Wheat Dec 08 at 755.00, stop level at 793.00, target level at 720.00. 

Currently Wheat Dec 08 contract is trading at 729.40, unrealised profit is US$1280 (Value of $1 is US$50).

Wheat declined after the dollar gained to a one-year high yesterday against six major currencies as the U.S. government took over Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac, boosting confidence in the world's largest economy. Corn and soybeans also fell as oil's decline eroded the appeal for the crops as alternative fuel. 

Six years ago, analysing commodities is about tracking its supply and demand situation. Three years ago, analysing commodities involve tracking what are the hedge funds trading. Now analysing commodities involve knowing where is the next direction of US Dollar going to be.


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## wayneL (10 September 2008)

Investor123 said:


> On 5 September I had shorted 1 lot of Wheat Dec 08 at 755.00, stop level at 793.00, target level at 720.00.
> 
> Currently Wheat Dec 08 contract is trading at 729.40, unrealised profit is US$1280 (Value of $1 is US$50).
> 
> ...




Why not just trade DX then?


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## Investor123 (10 September 2008)

wayneL said:


> Why not just trade DX then?




DX is currency trading which I had already participated. Just took my profit on USDJPY, see USDJPY thread.

USD is just one of the factor to look at when trading commodities. Commodities provide more data that gives the trader more information on where the direction is going, ie planting areas, CFTC data, hedge funds' option positions.


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## Investor123 (10 September 2008)

*Wheat Traders Trim Bets on Price Rise, CFTC Data Shows *

Hedge-fund managers and other large speculators decreased their net-long position in Chicago wheat futures in the week ended Sep. 2, according to U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission data.

Speculative long positions, or bets prices will rise, outnumbered short positions by 985 contracts on the Chicago Board of Trade, the Washington-based commission said in its Commitments of Traders report. Net-long positions fell by 5,447 contracts, or
85 percent, from a week earlier.

This report confirms that my bearish view on wheat is correct.


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## wayneL (10 September 2008)

Investor123 said:


> DX is currency trading which I had already participated. Just took my profit on USDJPY, see USDJPY thread.
> 
> USD is just one of the factor to look at when trading commodities. Commodities provide more data that gives the trader more information on where the direction is going, ie planting areas, CFTC data, hedge funds' option positions.



Agreed, but you said:



> Now analysing commodities involve knowing where is the next direction of US Dollar going to be.




So it's not just about the US dollar then?


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## Investor123 (11 September 2008)

wayneL said:


> Agreed, but you said:
> 
> 
> 
> So it's not just about the US dollar then?




Now analysing means looking at:

fundamental
hedge funds position
USD direction


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## Investor123 (11 September 2008)

Investor123 said:


> On 5 September I had shorted 1 lot of Wheat Dec 08 at 755.00, stop level at 793.00, target level at 720.00.
> 
> Currently Wheat Dec 08 contract is trading at 729.40, unrealised profit is US$1280 (Value of $1 is US$50).
> 
> ...




On 5 September I had shorted 1 lot of Wheat Dec 08 at 755.00, stop level at 793.00, target level at 720.00. 

Wheat price fell below 720, so position is closed. Profit is US$1750 (value of $1 is US$50).


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## cartel31 (15 September 2008)

It's quite interesting to see the price of wheat come down. 

I would have thought that in these market conditions, with the financial chaos about to start world wide that people in poorer countries would obviously direct their income towards wheat products such as bread. 

The economic slowdown will no doubt have a lot of people worldwide losing jobs. Would you think that wheat would be increasing n price soon?


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## CanOz (15 September 2008)

cartel31 said:


> It's quite interesting to see the price of wheat come down.
> 
> I would have thought that in these market conditions, with the financial chaos about to start world wide that people in poorer countries would obviously direct their income towards wheat products such as bread.
> 
> The economic slowdown will no doubt have a lot of people worldwide losing jobs. Would you think that wheat would be increasing n price soon?




I think that if the USD tanks again then commodities, wheat included, will rise in price. 

The rest is really up to the fundamental supply / demand situation with wheat. Generally if the wheat price is up for long then more crop is sowed. Providing there are no natural disasters there will be a surplus and prices may fall.

Cheers,


CanOz


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## robertgordon (16 August 2010)

Friday 3rd September or  Monday 6th September  will be a very important turning point in Wheat . At this point in time I cannot accurately quantify whether wheat will trade into a Seasonal Top or whether price will pullback into a counter trend low before resumption of uptrend . The Time Cycles indicate the probability of a Low into the 3rd September but at this point in time I am fairly neutral on any outcome . Hopefully a few days beforehand I will be in a better position on Geometric  Angles and price to determine a Seasonal Top or Bottom .  Regards Robert


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## arco (17 August 2010)

.
I don't normally chart wheat, but based on the Ichimoku chart it could have the possibility to move down to test Chikou/Kumo-Senkou A supports circa 600. (674.50 is also a Chikou potential support point which is being tested at the moment, but that may not hold).


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## robertgordon (4 September 2010)

798 price will be important if Wheat Tops into Monday 6th September.


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## basilio (19 November 2020)

Wheat crop in Australia is breaking all records at the moment.  On top of that it actually getting harvested as well. It seems the recent rains didn't overley affect the crop.

Hopefully good news in terms of export markets and local supply. Also good of course for Grain Corp.









						Record-breaking day for GrainCorp as silos burst at seams during bumper harvest
					

More than 360,000 tonnes of grain are delivered to GrainCorp sites across Australia in one day, taking the total haul to more than 5 million tonnes since the winter harvest began.




					www.abc.net.au


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## wabullfrog (19 November 2020)

basilio said:


> Wheat crop in Australia is breaking all records at the moment.  On top of that it actually getting harvested as well. It seems the recent rains didn't overley affect the crop.
> 
> Hopefully good news in terms of export markets and local supply. Also good of course for Grain Corp.
> 
> ...




Volume is a big earner for Grain Handlers, storage & handling charges is what form the basis for good financial results. Trading is really only the icing on the cake and can easily incur big losses.

https://www.farmweekly.com.au/story/6554576/cbh-posts-297-million-loss/


Nonetheless very good economically for some rural communities that have done it tough over the last couple of years


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## Student of Gann (10 August 2021)

Could someone please help me with a few questions regarding trading Wheat . I am just starting to look into the Commodity markets which has been way overdue and just tinkering with a few charts and Cycle Analysis. It looks like the initial margin is around 3375US per contract and would maintenance margin be required on top of this if I was trading through a broker ? 
I am considering using a broker to place the trades for me with the main aspect being that I can hopefully set a stop loss with him and he can close the trade as per my trade plan which will be given to him in advance and he can suggest the best contract to trade.  So it's more reassurance that I can have someone to work the stop overnight whilst I'm sleeping . Waking up every hour will be disruptive and having to pay for that peace of mind is a price I am content to pay.  Modern trading platforms would probably have this function but it could be problematic if I automatically set a stop on the computer and the market opens significantly lower than my stop the computer may not execute it or the platform may crash etc so paying a bit extra for a broker is acceptable . Also does anyone know of an agricultural website that has a crop report calendar so I could just have a glance at what is coming up and be aware of important dates ?
Have recently gone back to doing some hand charting and preparing some Market Curves .
But in addition to this I will have to obtain some commodity data . I know that Gann preferred charting using Cash prices and I wonder if I could get Cash prices or is this data too illiquid and sketchy . Not sure how liquid the cash market is and whether I could obtain these figures to construct some charts or whether I just go with the normal futures data .  Recently I put out a forecast calling Top on Wheat for August 5th with forecast issued on July 31st with current price down almost 30 points .


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## wayneL (8 March 2022)

Our emergency year's supply of pasta and wholemeal flour has been a better investment than our gold and silver.

Should have bought a couple of 40-ft containers worth.


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## noirua (18 March 2022)

Wheat Prices - 40 Year Historical Chart
					

Interactive chart of historical daily wheat prices back to 1975.  The price shown is in U.S. Dollars per bushel.




					www.macrotrends.net


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## Dona Ferentes (18 March 2022)

noirua said:


> wheat price over 40 Years




And that bears out what I read the other week:



> "One theme I have been harping on in my newsletters is that *commodities tend to make V top*s, and stocks tend to make V bottoms. But when stocks top, they make big, rounded U tops, and *when commodities bottom, they make big, rounded U bottoms* (the oil bottom in 2020 is the exception, where prices went negative).






> "We’re seeing a lot of V tops in commodities, and correspondingly, we’re going to see a V bottom in stocks..."



_Jarad Dillian_


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## divs4ever (18 March 2022)

when i saw  silver premiums climbing  .. a while back  yes i grabbed some extra pasta , rice , salt  and some other consumables    that have a long shelf life  ( not trusting my life on continuous electricity supply either )

nothing  like even a a car-ful ( boot-ful ) but more than the usual  'safety net' to be sure


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## divs4ever (18 March 2022)

stock-wise i bought into RFF a fair while back  , D2O about a year back   and SGLLV in the last  six months  , could be very interesting times coming


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## qldfrog (19 March 2022)

divs4ever said:


> stock-wise i bought into RFF a fair while back  , D2O about a year back   and SGLLV in the last  six months  , could be very interesting times coming



Rff has been downhill for months, i had a substantial portfolio..i gave up with investor psyche


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## divs4ever (19 March 2022)

not down enough for me to add  more

 but down for sure

 i participate in the DRP so the lower  share price ( if divs. don't drop too drastically  )   is kind of a sweet sorrow


RFFRURAL FUNDS GROUP UNITS STAPLED
Change



Balance DateDividend TypeCents per shareCcyFranked %Ex-Dividend DateBooks Close DatePay Date31/03/2022Interim2.933AUD0.0030/03/202231/03/202229/04/202231/12/2021Interim2.933AUD0.0030/12/202131/12/202131/01/202230/09/2021Interim2.933AUD0.0029/09/202130/09/202129/10/202130/06/2021Final2.820AUD0.0029/06/202130/06/202130/07/202131/03/2021Interim2.820AUD0.0030/03/202131/03/202130/04/202131/12/2020Interim2.820AUD0.0030/12/202031/12/202029/01/202130/09/2020Interim2.820AUD0.0029/09/202030/09/202030/10/202030/06/2020Final2.712AUD0.0029/06/202030/06/202031/07/202031/03/2020Interim2.712AUD0.0030/03/202031/03/202030/04/202031/12/2019Interim2.712AUD0.0030/12/201931/12/201931/01/2020

 given how some other stocks i held ( for div. income ) have been doing in the last  two years ( cutting or suspending divs.  )  RFF is still doing something right to keep me on board

BTW farming agriculture  is a strange business vicious cycles sometimes a long time to  break even , and always a disaster ( fire , flood , drought , storm ) lurking in the future

 however i bet there are some ELD veterans here who will enlighten on the dangers of going HEAVY in the agricultural sector

 my av. SP is just over $1.58 and i bought in during 2016  and those 3 monthly DRP shares  have help the core holding grow as well 

 so am not  not unhappy with them ( but not dumbstruck with amazement either )


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