# ACX - Aconex Limited



## System (9 December 2014)

Aconex is a leading cloud collaboration platform for the global construction industry. The Company's platform enables over 50,000 user organisations worldwide to collaborate across the lifecycle of construction projects, from planning to delivery and operations.

Aconex delivers its platform using a Software-as-a-Service (SaaS) subscription model. The Aconex platform is accessible on a worldwide basis, 24 hours a day, via desktop, laptop, tablet and mobile devices.

http://www.aconex.com


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## blindbet (9 December 2014)

Hello everyone! First post and first day being an investor. I purchased some shares this morning in this company , i read over the company prospectus last week and loved the goals set forward and details of how this organisation was going to increase its marketability by ' penetrating ' various countries . " this  to me,means a larger saturation of the brand"  which hopefully increases profit .The way these guys held off on the first IPO predicted earlier in the year informed me that the board wanted to consolidate everything and be 100% on the right path before taking the big leap.I guess what I'm trying to say is this move forward means growth! And with a 3year track record of moving up 20-30% financially each year  with 60% of the construction in aus-nz already under their belt, This sets a great base for nailing tenders globally and being listed on the ASX just provides future clients with the foresight of transparency .Anyways thats how i was able to rationalise buying some shares this morning haha. i hope I'm on the right track as with all things time will tell!!


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## So_Cynical (9 December 2014)

Ok im interested...makes perfect sense, floated at $1.90 and closed at $1.80



			
				AFR said:
			
		

> While a slew of internet start-ups have hit the boards over the past 12 months, Aconex is notable as the largest loss-making technology company to ever list on the ASX.



~
[video=youtube_share;4dFajd0eOtU]http://youtu.be/4dFajd0eOtU[/video]


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## So_Cynical (4 June 2015)

I entered back in December at $1.80 - stock went sideways for a few months then took off a few months back, $2.79 today...so many of these "blue sky" internet stocks are doing well.


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## So_Cynical (5 August 2015)

Closed up 12.9% today on the back of the Leighton strategic partnership, pretty good news, transfer of IP and some staff etc from Keystone.

http://www.cimic.com.au/__data/assets/pdf_file/0017/31184/1459460.pdf

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I have a full open position from Late Dec up 140%


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## So_Cynical (11 December 2015)

So_Cynical said:


> I entered back in December at $1.80.




Sold a few today @ $5.01 (173% profit) figured a little profit taking couldnt hurt and it was 12 months and 1 day since the purchase so get the 50% CGT discount, kept most of my shares as its still going up, looking at the all data chart - it's a very consistent trend.
~


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## So_Cynical (23 December 2015)

WOW intra day high so far of $5.70 with no announcement, something must be going on.


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## skc (23 December 2015)

So_Cynical said:


> WOW intra day high so far of $5.70 with no announcement, something must be going on.




It's called thin holiday trading by breakout traders!


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## So_Cynical (23 December 2015)

skc said:


> It's called thin holiday trading by breakout traders!




Pushing the price up by 65c (13 or 14%) very keen...clearly not my cup of tea.


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## Ves (23 December 2015)

skc said:


> It's called thin holiday trading by breakout traders!



Yep probably one of the reasons.

The other theme in the financial press lately is the rotation from yield to growth stocks. Especially the "potential ASX200" or "future stars."

A few of these "growth" stocks have ran really hard lately.  I'm sure some of the brokers / instos are talking them up.

Interest often leads to chart moves,  which leads to even more attention and so on.

Looks very pretty for a while.


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## peter2 (23 December 2015)

Those "damn" break-out traders should be on holiday spending their hard earned gains instead of playing in this market. 

I looked at today's sales and there wasn't very much volume done at those high values at all. However it does show that there aren't many sell orders in the market on this stock. Today's price action is a good attention grabber and this might attract a few buyers in the next few weeks. The probability of higher prices to come is now higher than 50% (IMO).


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## So_Cynical (11 March 2016)

Aconex now a constituent of both the ASX2 and 300 as of the March 2016 quarterly rebalance.

http://www.asx.com.au/asxpdf/20160311/pdf/435rd3468xn14p.pdf


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## So_Cynical (23 March 2016)

SSP $5.20 the same price as the recent 120M placement, funds to go towards the Conject purchase and working capital...Ill sit this one out.

http://www.asx.com.au/asxpdf/20160323/pdf/4360zpw88zk92g.pdf


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## So_Cynical (30 March 2016)

So_Cynical said:


> SSP $5.20 the same price as the recent 120M placement, funds to go towards the Conject purchase and working capital...*Ill sit this one out.*




On second thoughts

Intraday high of $6.79 - SSP shares available at $5.20 and only 1025 shareholders, some chance the SP will hold up once the new shares hit the market on April 20.

Beep beep beep, think ill load up on this


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## Boggo (30 March 2016)

peter2 said:


> Those "damn" break-out traders should be on holiday spending their hard earned gains instead of playing in this market.




Just booked business class to Europe and America last week, leaving on 5th June, does that count


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## So_Cynical (14 April 2016)

SPP results out, as expected massively over subscribed and massively scaled back, i applied for 10K expecting to be luck to get half that, SSP was originally set for 5 million, applications for 21.5 Million were received.

http://investor.aconex.com/IRM/PDF/1289/AconexreportsresultsofSecurityPurchasePlan

 Issue price $5.20
 Scale back 44.35%
 Money Raised 12M
Sold 90% of my shares last week @ 6.40


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## skc (30 January 2017)

Nice timing Morgan Stanley. 






Oh... and they assigned a 80% probability of being correct.

Share price down 42% and still falling. On a positive note, they still have 29 days to catch up.


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## skyQuake (30 January 2017)

Can't wait to see Morgan Stanley banner ads on Hotcopper

_"Is this the stock that will triple your money in 30 days? Click here and find out!"_


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## skc (30 January 2017)

skyQuake said:


> Can't wait to see Morgan Stanley banner ads on Hotcopper
> 
> _"Is this the stock that will triple your money in 30 days? Click here and find out!"_




The shorters got this one right didn't they. 16% shorted... founder/director selling like made. The signs were there.

Did you have borrow on this?

I also like how ACX decided that they need to make 2 other announcements throughout the trading day. Everytime it went Notice_Received everyone was like... what else do you want to announce that you couldn't announce in a single filing?!?! There's no word limit to announcements AFAIK.


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## skyQuake (30 January 2017)

skc said:


> The shorters got this one right didn't they. 16% shorted... founder/director selling like made. The signs were there.
> 
> Did you have borrow on this?
> 
> I also like how ACX decided that they need to make 2 other announcements throughout the trading day. Everytime it went Notice_Received everyone was like... what else do you want to announce that you couldn't announce in a single filing?!?! There's no word limit to announcements AFAIK.




No borrow, not even with CFD guys.

And to think the hedgies were comfortable at getting to 50 days to cover before all this!


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## Lone Wolf (30 January 2017)

Can someone explain what's happening here? I'm not in this stock, but I'd like to understand why it happened.







The company is still forecasting profit increases. I understand that the market had priced in larger profit increases, but is this news really bad enough to wipe 45% off the company value?

Does it seem unusual that it opened so much lower rather than falling there throughout the day? I'd understand a smaller gap down by those who didn't like the news, then more selling from those who don't like the open, followed by a race for the exit as the general masses start to realise the ship is sinking. But this opened 30% lower. Did some major holders want out at open? Or was the news really bad enough that a large number of smaller holders had their shares on offer for whatever price they could get?

And lastly but most importantly, what were the warning signs? It was stated the founder/director were selling, admittedly I don't follow stocks closely enough to know this. There was also a build up of shorts, but in some cases isn't that a contrarian indicator? Anything else?


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## skc (30 January 2017)

Lone Wolf said:


> The company is still forecasting profit increases. I understand that the market had priced in larger profit increases, but is this news really bad enough to wipe 45% off the company value?




Ignore the 45% ... to say whether 45% is right or wrong implies that the price yesterday before the fall was somehow "correct". As we know that is not necessarily the case.

Instead, focus on the current market cap. What market cap makes sense based on the new numbers and the trajectory of such? 



Lone Wolf said:


> Does it seem unusual that it opened so much lower rather than falling there throughout the day? I'd understand a smaller gap down by those who didn't like the news, then more selling from those who don't like the open, followed by a race for the exit as the general masses start to realise the ship is sinking. But this opened 30% lower. Did some major holders want out at open? Or was the news really bad enough that a large number of smaller holders had their shares on offer for whatever price they could get?




It opened at the high of the day and got sold almost 25% lower through the day. So clearly the news was bad enough for some. The open match volume was only 220k (about 0.1% of shares outstanding)... so not nearly enough for a major holder to sell. 

It is actually rare to see something open with a small gap then fall through the day. Especially in a relatively larger stock - there are usually enough people watching and analysing the new news. If the news imply a share price should be <$3.50, for example, then any informed trader / seller would jumped to the opportunity to sell it lower on the open.



Lone Wolf said:


> And lastly but most importantly, what were the warning signs? It was stated the founder/director were selling, admittedly I don't follow stocks closely enough to know this. There was also a build up of shorts, but in some cases isn't that a contrarian indicator? Anything else?




The build up of shorts may or may not a contrarian indicator. But an indicator is simply that... it doesn't mean they will be correct. JBH had a lot of shorts, and so did FMG. In those cases the shorts got it wrong and the high shorts holding proved to be a correct contrarian indicator. DSH and SGH also had a lot of shorts... and the shorts did their homework and got it right this time.

The warning actually happened back in August last year. The FY16 report was a miss and the stock was sold from ~$8 to $4 (it was $4 as recently as early Dec). At that time it was a small enough miss, people still had decent fate in the stock and the high PE small/mid cap was still a darling segment. Hence the share price meandered between $6-7 and didn't really plunge. Come late last year the high PE small/mid cap segment started to fall out of favour (coinciding with Trump and the rise of the resources and banks) and the stock fell quick to $4 before staging a recovery towards ~$6. The today you have news that confirmed that the "hiccup" from August may have been the start of a new trend...

The new guidance today is for 1H FY17 revenue to be $77m, vs pcp of ~$56m. In Apr 2016 ACX acquired Conject which had annual revenue of Euro 24.5m (~A$35m). Strip out the acquired revenue (say $17m) and growth is only 7%. With the full year number, new outlook of $160-165m is only 3-4% higher than the FY16 figure of $123m. This level of growth is definitely disappointing, and doesn't deserve a PE multiple of some 90-100x. Indeed, the full year forecast implies H2 vs H1 growth of ~11%... the market has been looking for >20-25% for this company. 

So yes the punishment may seem brutal... but the revised guidance imply a NPAT of ~$6-8m vs a market cap of $614m at close of today. Clearly still a lot of growth priced in that are yet to be delivered.


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## VSntchr (30 January 2017)

skc said:


> I also like how ACX decided that they need to make 2 other announcements throughout the trading day. Everytime it went Notice_Received everyone was like... what else do you want to announce that you couldn't announce in a single filing?!?! There's no word limit to announcements AFAIK.



And leaves traders freaking out for those few mins until the announcement comes out


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## Lone Wolf (31 January 2017)

Thanks for that skc, much appreciated. Let me chew on all that for a while. I've never been too interested in fundamentals so you've given me a bit to look up.

One thing though, I'm struggling to find a reporting calendar that shows an ACX announcement planned for today (the calendars I'm finding only show either what was released today, or upcoming announcements from tomorrow onwards). But it would have been known that they were making an announcement today right? So an immediate solution to avoiding such a move for short-term traders is to check reporting dates and avoid holding over them.


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## skc (31 January 2017)

Lone Wolf said:


> One thing though, I'm struggling to find a reporting calendar that shows an ACX announcement planned for today (the calendars I'm finding only show either what was released today, or upcoming announcements from tomorrow onwards). But it would have been known that they were making an announcement today right? So an immediate solution to avoiding such a move for short-term traders is to check reporting dates and avoid holding over them.




No. Today's announcement was unscheduled. ACX is not supposed to report it's H1 numbers until 21 Feb. So unfortunately it is not possible to avoid this by looking at the reporting schedule. 

That's why, whenever you see someone using simple fractional position sizing / 2% rule and call something a "low risk" position which ended up being >50% of the account size, they haven't been trading long enough and not managing their tail risk.


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## skc (31 January 2017)

skc said:


> The new guidance today is for 1H FY17 revenue to be $77m, vs pcp of ~$56m. In Apr 2016 ACX acquired Conject which had annual revenue of Euro 24.5m (~A$35m). Strip out the acquired revenue (say $17m) and growth is only 7%. With the full year number, new outlook of $160-165m is only 3-4% higher than the FY16 figure of $123m.




Quick correction. FY16 revenue figure of $123m actually included $9m from Conject acquisition. So like-for -like growth forecast for FY17 is in fact ~10-12%.


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## peter2 (20 April 2017)

A close above 4.00 puts ACX on the radar for a reversal opportunity. The gap fill to 5.40 is an acceptable target.


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## peter2 (18 December 2017)

I've had some ups and downs with this stock, but it all ends well. Thanks to today's offer from ORCL.


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## So_Cynical (19 December 2017)

Up 44.2% today  nice surprise and yet another takeover for me, i have lost count of all the takeovers my portfolio stocks have seen, i reckon its like 1 in 6 or 7 stocks i hold gets taken over.

Oracle @ 7.80 AUD per share, a return for me of about 95% profit...sweet, i get CGT discounting too.
~


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## System (6 April 2018)

On April 3rd, 2018, Aconex Limited (ACX) was removed from the ASX's official list in accordance with Listing Rule 17.11, following implementation of the scheme of arrangement between the Company and its shareholders in connection with the acquisition of all the issued capital in the Company by Vantive Australia Pty Ltd.


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