# A Total Ban on Share Price Predictions



## krisbarry (23 December 2006)

If ASF wants to be the most credible discusion board on the web, a total ban on share price predictions should be imposed.  Sure if you can put it in a chart with some T/A...no problems with that, but out-right price predictions based on pure speculation should be banned.

Care to discuss?


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## krisbarry (23 December 2006)

*Here is an example of what should be banned:*

To be conservative, I will assume an average width of just 50m (ranges 0-200m), a depth of just 100m (we have this confirmed already) and a strike of 1km (already confirmed)

Summary: 1000m (strike) x 50m (width) x 100m (depth) = 5,000,000 m3…x 3.2 (sg) = 16,000,000 tonnes

Discounting the high grade results from the transported materials, and paying greater attention to the average grade of all test samples,we come up with the following potential parameters…

Cu @ .5% (recoverable) x 16m tonnes = 80,000t Cu = $800m
Ni @ .2% (recoverable) x 16m tonnes = 32,000t Ni = $1,088m
PGM's 4.5g/t (recoverable) = 2,314,800 oz (assume av $800/oz) = $1,855m
Silver?
Zinc?

Total in-situ value (recoverable) = $3,743m…or… $3.74 billion

An applied market value of 10%of inground (assuming an economic resource) gives us a market cap of $374m…or about $5.67 per share.

Add cash, and other assets and you get about $6.00 per share.

Now before getting too excited, remember this will not happen overnight, but if drilling continues to confirm the nature of this find, such prices are more than possible.

Remember also, the above numbers assume a depth of just 100m…which has already been confirmed…double this to 200m for similar grade and you get $12 per share. Importantly, mineralisation to 1km is not uncommon in this part of the woods, although I would be happy with just 500m.​


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## krisbarry (23 December 2006)

Can you see how a share price goes from 14 cents to 90ish cents, then we have an expert claim its worth $5.67 then $6.00 then inflates that to $12.00

This is utter ramping!

No chart, just wild claims with lots of fluff.

This same person did exactly this on CDU and how many thousands of investors got burnt


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## Porper (23 December 2006)

Stop_the_clock said:
			
		

> *Here is an example of what should be banned:*
> 
> To be conservative, I will assume an average width of just 50m (ranges 0-200m), a depth of just 100m (we have this confirmed already) and a strike of 1km (already confirmed)
> 
> ...




Hello STC,

I hate ramping more than most here, blatant rampers should get a warning & then banned i.m.o.

However , I think if somebody goes to the trouble of getting all the figures together as in your post above, then works out for eg.a price based on the pe ratio, I would say that is fine.

We can also give a possible price guide using Fib no's etc.As long as the sums and even better, a chart posted that is also ok i.m.o.

What isn't ok are posts like you get on Hotcopper like "Screaming buy-cheap as chips" etc.

We have good mods here so I don't think standards will drop too much, however as ASF grows we will undoubtedly attract some of these losers posting here.   :santa:


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## krisbarry (23 December 2006)

*Here is an example of a post that qualifies for a price prediction*

Yes I did sell out of PEN.

The current breakout is not as you say outstanding.
However after a fairly shallow pullback it appears to be off again making a new high on good volume.

This move in my view has more to go than the last 2 up moves.
I've been trading this and others as day and very short term trades and as such I'm ready to re enter based on my criteria of a new high on good volume with the close at the top of the last days trading


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## tarnor (23 December 2006)

grr your such a tool kris.. the same poster called the potential of that stock before its run... at that time it had a tiny market cap..Do you think its gone this far purely on day traders? obviously others have also realised the potential here..


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## nizar (23 December 2006)

Stop_the_clock said:
			
		

> If ASF wants to be the most credible discusion board on the web, a total ban on share price predictions should be imposed.  Sure if you can put it in a chart with some T/A...no problems with that, but out-right price predictions based on pure speculation should be banned.
> 
> Care to discuss?




If TA is OK as a predictive tool then why not FA? (eg.figures, earnings). For some people, the latter is more useful than a chart, and also its less subjective.


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## Wysiwyg (23 December 2006)

Stop_the_clock said:
			
		

> If ASF wants to be the most credible discusion board on the web, a total ban on share price predictions should be imposed.  Sure if you can put it in a chart with some T/A...no problems with that, but out-right price predictions based on pure speculation should be banned.
> 
> Care to discuss?




The difference I see between the two examples is that the fundy is optimistic and the techy is realistic.

Who would be the first peed off at the stock running to $6.00 + while still scratching lines on his glorified chart speculation?Phoooey.....if someones opinion isn`t in line with yours then find one that is.  :bad:


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## son of baglimit (23 December 2006)

just quickly porper - i dont recall you doing too badly out of NMS a year or 2 ago - now that was a blatant ramp, but only due to my lack of T/A skills - and have you noticed I'm back on their bandwagon again.....read into it what you will.


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## 2020hindsight (23 December 2006)

well, I'm predicting that there won't be a total ban on predictions


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## Sean K (23 December 2006)

I think Joe's policy is that you must back up any share price prediction with analysis, whether FA ot TA.

I think pasting a share price prediction is dangerous and there are perhaps some who are ramping when they do it, but we can all question them and their methodolgies in the end. 

There are definately some sp predictions/evaluations that are warranted IMO.

For example, YTs valuations are based on solid analysis of in situ value and when presented we can all analyse it, discuss it, and disagree if we wanted. Most of us actually learn something.

Also, the same with any TA perspective with a chart discribing where the stock is and where it might go backed up with the 'theory' helps. Approximate probable price targets can be given and if anyone does then we can all analyse the theory, research and make our own minds up.

So, although a 'total ban' might be an easy way to solve the problem of blatant ramping, we'll lose some detailed analysis, both TA and FA, if we do that I think. And perhaps we'll be worse for it?


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## dj_420 (23 December 2006)

i agree with kennas

the fundamental analysis can provide us with information such as insitu values etc and compare to similar companies with similar resources ie size and market cap can then be compared to identify undervalued companies.

the fundamental analysis can be combined with technical to show undervalued companies who are demonstrating breakout patterns.

as long as someones price prediction is justified by TA or FA then i think this is fine.


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## rederob (23 December 2006)

Stop_the_clock said:
			
		

> If ASF wants to be the most credible discusion board on the web, a total ban on share price predictions should be imposed.  Sure if you can put it in a chart with some T/A...no problems with that, but out-right price predictions based on pure speculation should be banned.
> 
> Care to discuss?



Probably no need for this thread if the creator wasn't such a good ramper in his past.
Maybe he still is?
No getting away with it?


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## stoxclimber (23 December 2006)

Most of the TA predictions are laughable in their accuracy to the same extent as the $6.00 prediction for a 50c share. One should realise that most of the fundamental predictions have no risk discounting which is why they are so optimistic...the TA predictions are only more "realistic" because they are located closer to the current share price but from my emperical observations no better than a random number generator. If one looks back at a posters history or at older posts in current threads we see plenty of price or price action predictions which did not occur.


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## Porper (23 December 2006)

son of baglimit said:
			
		

> just quickly porper - i dont recall you doing too badly out of NMS a year or 2 ago - now that was a blatant ramp, but only due to my lack of T/A skills - and have you noticed I'm back on their bandwagon again.....read into it what you will.




Yes, I did nicely, and bought some a few weeks ago.Just sold them before their recent surge, but that's life.

Baglimit, just because a share is ramped doesn't mean that it isn't a good bet.Maybe you did ramp, sorry yes, you definitely ramped NMS, but people are fools if they buy because of it.

INL has been ramped to Hell and back but I hold nevertheless because the T.A said buy.I just ignore 90% of the INL posts.

People who blatantly ramp should be banned, end of story.


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## Smurf1976 (23 December 2006)

Stop_the_clock said:
			
		

> *Here is an example of a post that qualifies for a price prediction*
> 
> Yes I did sell out of PEN.
> 
> ...



That post, based on a chart, seems perfectly reasonable to me. Or have I missed something?

It's no different to looking at a weather chart, applying conventional meteorological knowledge and concluding that it will probably rain tomorrow. Pure commonsense says that there is no guarantee that the forecast of rain will be correct even though it is likely so we all act accordingly. Same with a share price forecast IMO.


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## happytrader (23 December 2006)

Stop_the_clock said:
			
		

> If ASF wants to be the most credible discusion board on the web, a total ban on share price predictions should be imposed.  Sure if you can put it in a chart with some T/A...no problems with that, but out-right price predictions based on pure speculation should be banned.
> 
> Care to discuss?




Hi STC

Where is your indomitable spirit? You know, the one where you choose your own thoughts, emotions and responses.

Cheers
Happytrader


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## Joe Blow (23 December 2006)

kennas said:
			
		

> I think Joe's policy is that you must back up any share price prediction with analysis, whether FA ot TA.
> 
> I think pasting a share price prediction is dangerous and there are perhaps some who are ramping when they do it, but we can all question them and their methodolgies in the end.
> 
> ...




What kennas said.

I have no problem with price predictions based on someone's detailed fundamental or technical analysis of a particular stock. But the prediction must be based on something. Price targets pulled out of thin air are not acceptable and will more than likely be deleted by either myself or one of ASF's moderators. If you're going to tell us how much a company's share price is going to be worth then be prepared to tell us *WHY* it's going to be worth that. If you can justify it then fair enough. If you can't then don't post price predictions. It's that simple.


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## Kipp (23 December 2006)

Joe, do you really live in Prague?  How come I never noticed that before   
Or is Prague just your fantasy?


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## noirua (23 December 2006)

Joe Blow said:
			
		

> What kennas said.
> 
> I have no problem with price predictions based on someone's detailed fundamental or technical analysis of a particular stock. But the prediction must be based on something. Price targets pulled out of thin air are not acceptable and will more than likely be deleted by either myself or one of ASF's moderators. If you're going to tell us how much a company's share price is going to be worth then be prepared to tell us *WHY* it's going to be worth that. If you can justify it then fair enough. If you can't then don't post price predictions. It's that simple.




If the market turns then bearish predictions by shorters could be far worse than the bullish predictions.


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## Joe Blow (23 December 2006)

Kipp said:
			
		

> Joe, do you really live in Prague?  How come I never noticed that before
> Or is Prague just your fantasy?




I've been here for two and a half months and will be here for two more weeks.

I will be back in Australia January 5th.



			
				noirua said:
			
		

> If the market turns then bearish predictions by shorters could be far worse than the bullish predictions.




Agreed... but if someone can justify a price target, whether bullish or bearish, then I will let it stand. It's then up to other posters to either agree with or disagree with that point of view. There's nothing wrong with different perspectives as long as a little thought has gone into it.


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## krisbarry (23 December 2006)

Still some are missing the point, and that is FA done on current resources is fine, but cannot possibly be connected with the share price and a future share price at such an early stage.  Confirmation or not...mining companies have filthy track records of getting it wrong.  CDU, and RRS come to mind of two examples of mining companies stating resources, in which didn't match its previous statements.

Two thumbs up for trade4profit, as he has done well to pick MMB, but come on now he is talking it up (ramping it up) $5.67, then $6.00, then $12

Alls it takes is an unexpected share placement or a resource downgrade and this will implode taking down with it all the rampers.

By the way wasn't trade4profit in some legal fight with the ASX, ASIC or CDU, over the share price of CDU...not sure if it is true, or was true


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## krisbarry (23 December 2006)

...and while we are at it... the broker who made the wild claim of CDU being worth $26 a share, based on resources... still has egg on his face.  Can I stick a frying pan on his head and add some bacon too.

...not to mention another broker recommending a buy on VLL at $2.60, give me a break.

Now you see what wild claims can do on FA alone, plenty of people walking around with egg on their faces.


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## kgee (23 December 2006)

what are we going to discuss if we can't talk about a companies value???


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## krisbarry (23 December 2006)

kgee said:
			
		

> what are we going to discuss if we can't talk about a companies value???




Like I said talk about the companies value till the cows come home, but let the market decide the true/real value of the company, via its share price.

Current resources in any mining stock vary so much from day to day...many factors are at work here such as the value of a base metals on the day, the value of the aussie dollar, the amount of base metal on hand at any given time, the demand/supply etc.

Just like the housing market has a value, so does the stock market.

Real Estate agents talk up the market, but at the end of the day its how much the buyer is willing to pay.  

Is MMB worth $5.67, depends on many factors so simply adding all the values together doesn't guarentee that someone will pay $5.67...it could be more or less.

This thread is not about downramping any stock its just what I see day in and day out on these boards and so many people get it so wrong, so often.


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## theasxgorilla (23 December 2006)

Perhaps there should be a "forum reader beware" disclaimer (is there one already that I skipped through) that says words to the effect of, "Posters here are not professionals inspite of how they may carry on.  Act on information herewith at your own risk/peril").

I don't encourage ramping but I'm not that daft that I can't ignore it.  Who are we trying to protect?  Vulnerable noobs who don't know better?


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## rederob (23 December 2006)

krisbarry
Your track record speaks for itself in so many forums.
Despite me asking you dozens of times to justify your blatant rampings on numerous equities, the best you could ever do was post some cut and pastes, ad nauseum.
You need to take stock of some of life's realities: Gold will trade at $1000 and BHP could well trade at the same price if it still exists under that banner in 50 years time.
Most of the people that post here, and most that probably read here, have more than half a brain, and can sort the wheat from the chaff.
I think KZL has a chance to become a very profitable diversified mining house in a few years, and could easily double in price within 5 years should present trends continue.
Equally, a collapse of commodities could halve its price in 12 months.
There is no fundamental nor technical analysis that will give you any certainty into the future and if you trade or invest you need to come to grips with this fact very quickly.
Those that can't shouldn't be in this game.


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## krisbarry (23 December 2006)

Again we are missing the point, to simply justify a share price because of this factor and that factor doesn't make it a buy or sell, or hold.

The true value of a company is decided by the market as a collective agreement.  No one individual no matter how much they fundamentally mull over the numbers can give an accurate share price.

Thats why we see so many people with egg on their faces after predicting a share price via FA, or even TA for that matter.  I have done it too so I am admitting fault, hence the reason for this thread.

Instead of deciding the share price discuss the company and its potential value as a whole, not as a SHARE PRICE!


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## Julia (23 December 2006)

rederob said:
			
		

> krisbarry
> Your track record speaks for itself in so many forums.
> Despite me asking you dozens of times to justify your blatant rampings on numerous equities, the best you could ever do was post some cut and pastes, ad nauseum.
> You need to take stock of some of life's realities: Gold will trade at $1000 and BHP could well trade at the same price if it still exists under that banner in 50 years time.
> ...




Joe has clearly stated what's acceptable, and Rederob as usual makes good sense.

Given your history, Kris, I'm curious to know the inspiration behind your conversion to "truth in posting".



Julia


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## kgee (24 December 2006)

Stop the clock ...I was just yanking your chain ...you must admit this forum is pretty good at stopping ramping...I visit hot copper sometimes and some of the threads are such cr*p and leave such a foul taste I often wonder wether their ramping doesn't have a negative effect rather than a positive


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## pacer (24 December 2006)

I've been known to ramp a bit when the bourbon gets to me.....sorry.

But but so far 95% of my my shares have performed to 50-300% of my get in price.

I'm here for the entertainment firstly and the information second.

Merry Xmas all......


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## Deadcat (27 December 2006)

Creator of this thread should look to his last post on LVL and decide if what he added to it today was worthwhile.  This is a great site and does have alot of substance, however, there are always a few posters who give alot of credit to the saying "Pot calling the kettle black".


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## krisbarry (27 December 2006)

What I added was of value, as it has found some support at its current level, and has been building slow and steady.

Also all members need to keep up post numbers to qualify for the comp...so there :


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## Sean K (27 December 2006)

Deadcat said:
			
		

> Creator of this thread should look to his last post on LVL and decide if what he added to it today was worthwhile.  This is a great site and does have alot of substance, however, there are always a few posters who give alot of credit to the saying "Pot calling the kettle black".



Cat, I totally agree on the pots and kettles thing and we all need to be mindful of how we post. Being objective is very difficult when hard earned $$ are on the line.

However, STCs post on LVL wasn't as bad as could be. It has consolidated and is slowly recovering, but it's no sure thing that's for sure. It has actually more than doubled in the past 4 months, which can't be too bad. (although a 2 cent stocks has the potential to do that every day of course)

Thanks for keeping an eye on things and keeping the site honest. I'm sure STC has an opinion of why LVL is starting to look good better????


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## krisbarry (27 December 2006)

Anyway we should get back to this thread please...and not side track it with stocks.

Thanks


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## Joe Blow (27 December 2006)

2007 will be the year we run the rampers out of town, or at least to another forum where it is acceptable.

Starting January 1st the moderators and I will be targetting those whose sole purpose on ASF is to ramp stocks they hold. If they persist with these activities, they will be banned. It's time to crack down I'm afraid.

Keep in mind that the core group of rampers on ASF consists of a tiny minority of maybe a dozen or so people. I am not referring to the vast majority of ASF members whose posts I have no problem with.

I know I will cop some flack from some quarters for taking these kind of measures but in my opinion shameless ramping brings down the quality of ASF as a whole and I see getting tough on ramping/rampers as a necessary part of maintaining standards.


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## rederob (27 December 2006)

Joe Blow said:
			
		

> I know I will cop some flack from some quarters for taking these kind of measures but in my opinion shameless ramping brings down the quality of ASF as a whole and I see getting tough on ramping/rampers as a necessary part of maintaining standards.




Only from the rampers, Joe.
I think you are treading on pretty safe ground.
The boiler rooms and hot coppers will be refuelled by your stance in 2007.


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## Bobby (27 December 2006)

Joe Blow said:
			
		

> 2007 will be the year we run the rampers out of town, or at least to another forum where it is acceptable.
> 
> Starting January 1st the moderators and I will be targetting those whose sole purpose on ASF is to ramp stocks they hold. If they persist with these activities, they will be banned. It's time to crack down I'm afraid.
> 
> Keep in mind that the core group of rampers on ASF consists of a tiny minority of maybe a dozen or so people. I am not referring to the vast majority of ASF members whose posts I have no problem with.




Joe its the covert rampers that amuse me, they spread a thought to the lesser educated.
Their rhetoric being a camouflage to propagate a ramp.

Cheers Bob.


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