# The Secret is that there are no Secrets



## tech/a (16 July 2012)

In reply to some comments I made on the One Good trade thread of Can Oz.

*There are NO SECRETS* and here they are!

Firstly *ALL* analysis "works" in a bull market. Anyone can make a profit in a strongly trending bull market--just ask your local taxi driver.

Its pretty common knowledge and one of the *TRUE* truisms of trading/investing that the market will trend 30% of the time and either distribute or accumulate in consolidations during the other times--70 %.

Its also true that there will be trends in sometime frame at any one time--during consolidations.

So if we are going to trade/invest profitably we best be able to recognise that we need to find a trend 2 bars or more--in a time frame so we can profit.

Our analysis---at best--- points us to set-ups which give us the ability to anticipate price action both--- Fundamental and Technical. At best its a 50/50 result over very long periods but by identifying where we are in a move (Consolidation or Trend) in a time frame we can be better prepared to trade or invest in the time frame chosen.

We should be constantly looking for set-ups which point to a trend --- be it within a lower time-frame in a consolidation or a breakout in any time frame.

Most trends last longer than expected and most consolidations resist breaking out in either direction longer than expected. 
In the short term we can identify time periods which are likely to trend in a direction for a number of bars ( Trend or Counter trend trades).This can swing the odds in our favour---giving us one string to the bow of profit---*anticipation*.

*Radge* once said that* " It doesn't matter if your wrong---only how long you stay wrong "*

So the best way to minimise loss through being wrong too long is to have either a stop loss---OR a mechanism in your analysis which tells you that your analysis is wrong---quick enough to mitigate risk.

*"Let your winners run"*
The next string to the bow. You need to have either an anticipated target OR a mechanism to determine the end of your trading trend in your time frame which maximises your time in a trade in your chosen direction.

You see there are ONLY 3 ways (Other than Arbitrage) That you can profit from your Trading/Investing.

More aggregate wining profitable trades than aggregate losing trades.
OR
Bigger aggregate Winning trades to Aggregate losing trades.
OR
A combination of both.

So in that thread I mentioned that it doesn't matter if you find your analysis doesn't pan out or you read it wrong.
The reason.

If you know the above and you've put those understandings in place you'll be trading time frames and set-ups that in the long run will deliver you positive expectancy through your trade management and the understanding that there are *NO SECRETS*. 

The traders trap is to constantly buy that new book or try that new trading technique
in the hope that it will find and give an* EDGE*.

That edge is staring you in the face 
*REGARDLESS OF METHOD USED.*


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## wayneL (16 July 2012)

The secret is to sell secrets... that aren't.


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## tech/a (16 July 2012)

CanOz said:


> Exactly, that's the 'hedge' that even good traders use to generate income when their systems don't.
> 
> CanOz




Dont know why i waste my time.


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## tech/a (16 July 2012)

My time is done here.
An apt thread to leave on.

Oh if you wish to learn Steidlmayer go to CBOT
Site and download his work.
Maybe you will learn something that you think you need to know.


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## Timmy (16 July 2012)

tech/a said:


> My time is done here.
> An apt thread to leave on.
> 
> Oh if you wish to learn Steidlmayer go to CBOT
> ...




tech - you contactable via twitter ? Or you going to stay active on the chartist?
PM if you prefer

Cheers


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## craft (17 July 2012)

CanOz said:


> To show I'm not in disagreement with Tech on his thesis, only his demeaning and at times ignorant behavior...here is an article saying the same thing...
> 
> Cheers,
> 
> ...




There’s nothing of permanent value that is secret. To be successful we need to take the big picture stuff – discipline, patience, general knowledge, maths of probability and positive expectancy, risk management blah blah blah and apply it. 

Applying it allows us to find temporary pockets of value to exploit and to be adaptive to find new opportunities as old ones dry up. In investing most temporary value is kept secret because it is eroded by sharing and it is normally more valuable to exploit it then sell it.

Regardless of your approach the permanent values of investing are the same and you need to find your own temporary value to exploit. The tools for finding the temporary value can be vastly different. 100’s of different approaches and they will all work or fail depending on how well you apply them in accordance with the universal non-secret big picture foundation of successful investing. 

Not sure why the duck takes the approach he does against people who use different tools – It’s a shame.


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## tech/a (17 July 2012)

> Not sure why the duck takes the approach he does against people who use different tools – It’s a shame.






> That edge is staring you in the face
> *REGARDLESS OF METHOD USED* .




What approach is that?

You and others dont READ what I post you PRESUME my stance is



> against people who use different tools




Which leads me to



> Dont know why I waste my time.




Im blunt,obnoxious and dont suffer fools.
But you will get a straight answer even though some think the answers are riddles!!
And I dont charge.
But after 12000 posts------


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## burglar (17 July 2012)

tech/a said:


> ...
> But you will get a straight answer even though some think the answers are riddles!!
> And I dont charge.
> But after 12000 posts------




Some of us here on the sidelines are listening and learning.


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## Junior (17 July 2012)

Great post Tech.  Don't leave.


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## Knobby22 (17 July 2012)

Not this little black duck!!

_From Samantha Dickinson: Where does the phrase not this little black duck originate? It’s used quite extensively in Australia.

A I had no idea, so I asked subscribers. Lots of people responded. Several Americans wrote to say that it is by no means unknown in the US, though to judge from the number of replies, much less common than in Australia, where some subscribers have confirmed it is often heard.

It is used as an indication that the speaker is not so stupid as he is being taken to be, or that he or she is too wise to the ways of the world to be taken in by something or to agree to doing something that is against his or her best interests.

The consensus is that it does come from the Warner Bros Daffy Duck cartoons, Daffy, of course, being a small black duck who used it as his catchphrase. Quite why Australians took this particular character to their hearts is a topic for some sociologist in need of a thesis.

I would hesitate to suggest that Australians found something of themselves in Daffy ”” even the Warner Bros’ site says of him: “As his personality gained depth at the hands of Warner Bros cartoons’ directors, the little black duck became more self-analytical, competitive, peevish, paranoid, and neurotic”. But it goes on more positively: “Daffy, like the Greek hero Sisyphus, is a victim of injustice who continuously protests. And it’s his refusal to surrender his will to the whims of the conspiring universe that makes him heroic”._

From http://www.worldwidewords.org/qa/qa-duc1.htm


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## Boggo (17 July 2012)

burglar said:


> Some of us here on the sidelines are listening and learning.




+ 1


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## 5oclock (17 July 2012)

burglar said:


> Some of us here on the sidelines are listening and learning.




+ 1


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## Steve C (17 July 2012)

5oclock said:


> + 1




+2

I really enjoy tech's insights - as a new member here, is tech a well known figure in the stock broking market?


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## tech/a (17 July 2012)

CanOz said:


> Still waiting...




The reply is in the post



> Our analysis---at best--- points us to set-ups which give us the ability to anticipate price action both--- Fundamental and Technical. At best its a 50/50 result over very long periods but by identifying where we are in a move (Consolidation or Trend) in a time frame we can be better prepared to trade or invest in the time frame chosen.




VSA and my own findings related to it are my chosen tool.
It *doesnt matter *what tool you use. Read the content of the post above *and one day the light will switch on*.

Until it does youll be looking at every form of analysis known and written about *AS I DID*,and many here still do or are doing.

It applies to FUNDAMENTAL traders as well.
It applies to MEAN REVERSION traders as well.
It applies to every single Trader/Investor.


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## Boggo (17 July 2012)

Steve C said:


> +2
> 
> ... is tech a well known figure in the stock broking market?




No he isn't Steve C but he could certainly teach a few of them a thing or two.
He seems to have a fairly sensitive bullsh!t detector, gets to the point, approaches the market as a business rather than a hobby and tells it how it is which ruffles a few feathers.

He had the runs on the board nearly 10 years ago, read the posts on here...
http://www.compuvision.com.au/vBulletin/showthread.php?t=19


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## Ves (17 July 2012)

tech/a said:


> The reply is in the post
> 
> 
> 
> ...



Couldn't agree more with this, and the sentiment / message that was in the original post in this thread (for those that looked and found it).  Well said all round, Tech/A.


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## skc (17 July 2012)

tech/a said:


> Until it does youll be looking at every form of analysis known and written about *AS I DID*,and many here still do or are doing.




I must admit it was a lightbulb moment for me, going to a 2-hr free seminar by Nick Radge 3 years ago and hearing about expectancy fo the first time. All newbies fluffing around with various tools and fancy charts should learn that first without a doubt.

BUT

Understanding expectancy is only a necessary but not sufficient condition for trading success. Having a good grasp on expectancy alone doesn't make you money. You still need a trading methodology that works. Otherwise, random entries coupled with 2% risk management rule and some trailling stop to let profit run would work for everyone. I am open to that being the case (probably true in a bull market) but have yet to see the proof.

It appears CanOz is looking to refine his methodology (whatever that is), but you keep telling him to understand expectancy (which I doubt that he doesn't know it already)... it just seems like you are talking pass each other.



tech/a said:


> It applies to *MEAN REVERSION traders *as well.




Except they probably don't let profit run...


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## notting (17 July 2012)

In this market you almost go long or short anything and just wait for the profit, forget the stop!
And, whilst sitting at home on your little computer reading a billion reports and trying to add it all up. 
In the numbers game are the odds with or against you?
It's a bit tough to compete with this
http://www.cnbc.com/id/47990825
Which is kind of how and why tech analysis was born!
Just seeing that all the moves have been made before you even get the report/news.
All you can do is hitch hike and make sure you can open the door from the inside when you get a ride!


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## sinner (17 July 2012)

Thanks for the link to the compuvision forum, Boggo. I've been looking for techs older material for my notes for a while, and never managed to find a working link.

Your link was no exception, but it did contain URLs from which I used archive.org to get copies:


```
http://web.archive.org/web/20051028174702/http://www.reefcap.com/ubb/Forum8/HTML/000091.html
http://web.archive.org/web/20041217101051/http://www.reefcap.com/ubb/Forum8/HTML/000155.html
```


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## tech/a (17 July 2012)

> but you keep telling him to understand expectancy (which I doubt that he doesn't know it already)...




Ive had a look back over One Good Trade and this thread and cant see me even mentioning this to Can oz

While it is mentioned though 90% of the world have a wrong view of expectancy.
Most think its the expectation that price will move from X-Y while risking Z in a trade.
Infact its the Cumulative X and Ys and Zds that give a result after a meaningful number of trades.
Positive or negative expectancy of the way you trade.

Can Oz I doubt would know his as I would doubt 99% here know theirs.
T/H would be an exception.



> Except they probably don't let profit run...




If they know what they are doing they will know how long that is.


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## notting (17 July 2012)

tech/a said:


> While it is mentioned though 90% of the world have a wrong view of expectancy.
> Most think its the expectation that price will move from X-Y while risking Z in a trade.
> Infact its the Cumulative X and Ys and Zds that give a result after a meaningful number of trades.




Shhhhhhhhh.  It's supposed to be a secret.


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## Gundini (17 July 2012)

tech/a said:


> In reply to some comments I made on the One Good trade thread of Can Oz.
> 
> *There are NO SECRETS* and here they are!
> 
> ...




I was really starting to enjoy this, next minute :-(



CanOz said:


> WTF?
> 
> I was commenting on Wayne's post.
> 
> ...




This is typical of ASF these days. You can't simply contribute without the so called experts coming in Hijacking the thread and proving you wrong, or turn it into some kind of slanging match. I have seen many contributors stop posting on these forums because of this. If you look through old forum threads, you see the same thing......... Newbie member comes in, gets shot down in flames, then after a few posts- leave. 100's of well respected ASFers have gone the same way. I personally miss some of those contributors, learnt alot from then.

Where do you get off thinking you know everything? And even if you do, I don't..... I could give you many examples but I would rather flick through great thread topics and learn something, and whether it is right or wrong I will take the golden thread out of it and do my own research.


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## CanOz (17 July 2012)

Gundini said:


> I was really starting to enjoy this, next minute :-(
> 
> 
> 
> ...




Fair comment mate, i will go through and remove all of my posts.

Ciao!


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## waza1960 (17 July 2012)

> This is typical of ASF these days. You can't simply contribute without the so called experts coming in Hijacking the thread and proving you wrong, or turn it into some kind of slanging match. I have seen many contributors stop posting on these forums because of this. If you look through old forum threads, you see the same thing......... Newbie member comes in, gets shot down in flames, then after a few posts- leave. 100's of well respected ASFers have gone the same way. I personally miss some of those contributors, learnt alot from then.
> 
> Where do you get off thinking you know everything? And even if you do, I don't..... I could give you many examples but I would rather flick through great thread topics and learn something, and whether it is right or wrong I will take the golden thread out of it and do my own research.




This is a bit unfair considering Canoz has contributed quite a lot to the forum.
   If you review posts 2,3,4 you will see that Can oz was just replying to Wayne's post which was just a light hearted response .Then Tech has taken Canoz's reply as a response to the effort he put into post 1...
  So a misunderstanding .................everybody have a cup of tea and a bex & settle down


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## CanOz (17 July 2012)

Its Techs thread, my sincerest apologies for the hijack...it was inappropriate of me to comment as i did and i should respect your right to articulate your thoughts for everyone's benefit on your thread.

I will happily observe from the sidelines.

Please resume your thread.

CanOz


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## boofis (17 July 2012)

Tech you're an interesting guy, go and finish that T/A thread you started instead of spending time arguing here


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## Gundini (17 July 2012)

waza1960 said:


> This is a bit unfair considering Canoz has contributed quite a lot to the forum.




I 100% agree, and I didn't mean CanOz, he is indeed a great contributor. I was being more general where an interesting thread can turn into a bun fight and pretty well derail the topic, or what is worse the originator leaves without letting us know the secret 



CanOz said:


> Its Techs thread, my sincerest apologies for the hijack...
> I will happily observe from the sidelines.
> 
> Please resume your thread.
> ...




I feel really bad now but thanks for being understanding CanOz


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## Gringotts Bank (18 July 2012)

Tech, I know you've always wanted to be a stock market educator, but there remains a huge gulf of understanding between you and your potential students.  Just as a good tradesman doesn't blame his tools, a good teacher doesn't blame his students for not "getting it".  The hallmark of a good teacher is a guy who has a host of happy and successful students.  He communicates with clarity, precision and patience; there is no ambiguity.  The difference between knowing something and being able to teach it is vast.  If I wanted to perfect golf, I'd ask Tiger Woods' coach, not Tiger himself.  Why not consider learning what makes a good teacher rather than bashing your noggin against a wall?


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## tech/a (18 July 2012)

Gringotts Bank said:


> Tech, I know you've always wanted to be a stock market educator, but there remains a huge gulf of understanding between you and your potential students.  Just as a good tradesman doesn't blame his tools, a good teacher doesn't blame his students for not "getting it".  The hallmark of a good teacher is a guy who has a host of happy and successful students.  He communicates with clarity, precision and patience; there is no ambiguity.  The difference between knowing something and being able to teach it is vast.  If I wanted to perfect golf, I'd ask Tiger Woods' coach, not Tiger himself.  Why not consider learning what makes a good teacher rather than bashing your noggin against a wall?




I have absolutely no intention or desire to educate people in trading.
Just ask any of those who have asked me privately. Frankly I couldnt be bothered.

So why post.
I was in the position of all those who post the same old same old time and again all in
various degrees of point of knowledge. I find it interesting to take part in some discussions but of course lose interest when people who are looking for help---arent looking to help themselves.

*There is another solution.
Bugger off out of here.*

A serious consideration Ill leave behind enough for anyone half interested in the Ducks solution
to amuse themselves for Months.


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## Logique (18 July 2012)

tech/a said:


> I have absolutely no intention or desire to educate people in trading...



I take it Learning Technical Analysis Q&A - https://www.aussiestockforums.com/for...t=23705&page=2  is all off then Tech/a


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## tech/a (18 July 2012)

Logique said:


> I take it Learning Technical Analysis Q&A - https://www.aussiestockforums.com/for...t=23705&page=2  is all off then Tech/a




Yeh you can see the commitment I had to that thread!


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## burglar (18 July 2012)

boofis said:


> Tech you're an interesting guy, go and finish that T/A thread you started instead of spending time arguing here




burglar says +1


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## KurwaJegoMac (18 July 2012)

Gringotts Bank said:


> Tech, I know you've always wanted to be a stock market educator, but there remains a huge gulf of understanding between you and your potential students.  Just as a good tradesman doesn't blame his tools, a good teacher doesn't blame his students for not "getting it".  The hallmark of a good teacher is a guy who has a host of happy and successful students.  He communicates with clarity, precision and patience; there is no ambiguity.  The difference between knowing something and being able to teach it is vast.  If I wanted to perfect golf, I'd ask Tiger Woods' coach, not Tiger himself.  Why not consider learning what makes a good teacher rather than bashing your noggin against a wall?




I disagree with you here. I Wouldn't blame the teacher in this case - i'd blame the student. Tech has a wealth of wisdom and experience that he's shared time and time again and if you look over all his posts, including this one, the concepts he's preaching are nearly _always the same._ So keep reading in conjunction with your personal learning until it clicks.

I think that many students are just not in a position to fully comprehend what is written because they have not attained the level of experience necessary to understand the posts. It's not the job of an expert to always simplify content for the audience - think of it like school; if you've never gone to school before you wouldn't badger a professor and complain that his concepts are difficult to comprehend or are not communicated with clarity - instead you would go back and learn the basics, go to primary school, high school, etc. 

It's the same thing here - ask any experienced trader to review the first post and they'll all generally agree that it's bang on the money, clear and to the point. However if you're not at a stage that you can understand that post then break it down and learn about each section and concept - go back to the basics if you have to, ask intermediate traders, but I don't think it's fair to say these sorts of things to Tech if you're not developed enough in your trading to comprehend or draw on his wisdom.

It really is a fantastic post and something I agree with - but it's taken me >1000 hours of reading and trading to get to a stage where I can read it and smile and nod in agreement. You gotta do the hard yards if you want the results.


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## KurwaJegoMac (18 July 2012)

Also please note my post isn't a stab at anyone in particular, it's something I see written often by the novices. I admit that I too was confused by his posts at first and took them for gibberish. But with time, patience, discipline and a lot of reading i'm now at a stage where I can comprehend what's written.

I'm still learning new things from him and others every day. Never stop learning.


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## wayneL (18 July 2012)

Those that have been around trading forums for 10 or so years are, note the evolution, trhough their own evolution.

Close your eyes Grasshoppers, what do you hear?


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## Joules MM1 (18 July 2012)

Gringotts Bank said:


> Tech, I know you've always wanted to be a stock market educator, but there remains a huge gulf of understanding between you and your potential students.  Just as a good tradesman doesn't blame his tools, a good teacher doesn't blame his students for not "getting it".  The hallmark of a good teacher is a guy who has a host of happy and successful students.  He communicates with clarity, precision and patience; there is no ambiguity.  The difference between knowing something and being able to teach it is vast.  If I wanted to perfect golf, I'd ask Tiger Woods' coach, not Tiger himself.  Why not consider learning what makes a good teacher rather than bashing your noggin against a wall?




that's a good post, imho



KurwaJegoMac said:


> ....many students are just not in a position to fully comprehend what is written because they have not attained the level of experience necessary to understand the posts.






think about that sentence very slowly......then, maybe, rewrite what youre trying to convey...i get the sentiment......the logic does not fit, itself

with respect

----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------



the major challenge for any tutor is that they first need to outline a paradigm to work in and avoid adhoc approach and in that way the student can prepare  for the work load too and be with the tutor on the journey as each task is in-step toward a particular goal .......most tutors are never in this agreement and most students never agree on purpose......just saying 'i want to learn to trade' isnt enough

all that energy and enthusiasm to pass ones own knowledge is a waste if the tutor doesnt quantify and qualify what they have by getting the student to reflect their own understanding as they learn......i dont think i see this happening anywhere that is a complete journey that others come and look at and say those ideas made an ongoing difference......

 text tuition has a huge limit not so much in how the tutor can convey their ideas, rather, in how the student reflects the depth of understanding they now have in each step.....trading is so distinct from any other activity, the auction is so distinct from any other form of business and (what we are taught as) logical processes that the "experience" part is where students learn to either perform trades under strict regime(s) which can be learned from text and picture alone, or, take on those distinct nuances and maise-like characteristics ......those nuances have different levels-within-levels, oft referred to as experience, that cannot, in my humble opinion, be exaplained in a text or even video presentation....... great card players can become great traders with minimum knowledge about the mechanics of an auction yet many people do not make the transition and wont from online tutorials yet they may from sitting next to a trader who can take them through the process.......

the thing is, without absolute comparison, how does a student know they know enough, that theyve learned enough and in some cases that theyve wasted time learning stuff they dont need at all? At what point does the student realise theyve gone on a merry go round, made a mistake, fall into "it's me, it's my discipline" without realising theyre applying (incomplete) knowledge  in the wrong way or even knowledge that's 99% complete but the key ingredient is missing....? 

free on the web aint the same as correct knowledge or correct focus......so, how would you know......free on the web is often a short cut......

maybe, what's really req'd is a body that can independantly advise on the value tuition offered from any person of institution......frankly, tuition of real value means tuition worth paying for......

well, you pay either way.....


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## Joe Blow (18 July 2012)

Folks, please remember that several thousand people visit ASF each day. There are those with a lot of knowledge and experience but a much larger percentage who are just starting out or have much to learn.

When you answer a newbie's question, you are not just helping that one person, you are helping all of the newbies who read the thread, now and in the future. I'm certain there are threads here that were started seven or eight years ago that are still helping those who are just now coming across them, perhaps after a Google search. 

However, forums are a two way street. If something someone has posted helps you, please post in reply and express your appreciation. Please be generous when giving and grateful when receiving. Everyone likes to know that what they have posted has helped someone.

Forums are places for sharing knowledge, information, strategies and ideas.  That is their primary strength. They say that many heads are better  than one. Well, forums are where that happens on the internet. But in the end they are only as good as those who participate in them want to make them. Their potential is endless, but sadly sometimes personality clashes, egos and unnecessary bickering get in the way. Please always do your best to make ASF a friendly, constructive, and helpful online community. It's a much nicer place to visit when it's like that.


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## Julia (18 July 2012)

Joe Blow said:


> Folks, please remember that several thousand people visit ASF each day. There are those with a lot of knowledge and experience but a much larger percentage who are just starting out or have much to learn.
> 
> When you answer a newbie's question, you are not just helping that one person, you are helping all of the newbies who read the thread, now and in the future. I'm certain there are threads here that were started seven or eight years ago that are still helping those who are just now coming across them, perhaps after a Google search.
> 
> ...



+100.  So true.
There are quite a few ASF members who have attempted to pass on knowledge and help others.  But I'd suggest there are few who have over such a long period and with such consistency offered the help that Tech/A has.
Certainly there has been appreciation offered in response by some, but there have also been the knockers who are apparently determined to find a point of criticism rather than acknowledgment of genuinely helpful intent.

When I first joined ASF in, I think, about 2004 I wanted to learn something about a technical approach.
Said this on the forum.  Who responded?  Tech/A  who said:  "Happy to help.  PM me."

He didn't need to do that any more than he needs to offer his experience and understanding in various threads on this forum.   If I were Tech/A, I'd be saying "Hell, if what I'm going to get for my efforts is denigration, then I've got other things to do."

My suggestion is if you don't find his suggestions helpful, look elsewhere.  No need to knock and tear down.

Regarding the capacity of anyone to teach others, we do not all have equal ability to express ourselves in a way that is immediately clear to others.   Perhaps try to understand the underlying message and accept that the tone is sometimes brusque and impatient.  It is no less sincere for that imo.


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## 5oclock (18 July 2012)

Good post JULIA !!!


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## joea (19 July 2012)

Joe Blow said:


> Folks, please remember that several thousand people visit ASF each day. There are those with a lot of knowledge and experience but a much larger percentage who are just starting out or have much to learn.
> 
> When you answer a newbie's question, you are not just helping that one person, you are helping all of the newbies who read the thread, now and in the future. I'm certain there are threads here that were started seven or eight years ago that are still helping those who are just now coming across them, perhaps after a Google search.
> 
> ...




+1

I will just say if I ever had the opportunity, I would like to share a screen and his opinion on the market with Tech/a.
"knowledge is no load to carry".
joea


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