# What will happen tomorrow? (1/3/07)



## The Mint Man (28 February 2007)

So what do all you ASFers think will happen tomorrow?
with the nikkei down 605 and hang seng down 627 atm, I think this will give the FTSE and dow a negative lead again.... and then onto us, the ASX.
Do you think we could see another fall like today's?
I think we may well see kennas's 5700 prediction (from realist's thread) reached if we see the FTSE and dow panic.

cheers


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## powerkoala (28 February 2007)

well, i still think XAO will touch 5600 area before heading north again.
but hopefully i am wrong though.
don't want to enter until dust goes away.


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## CanOz (28 February 2007)

The Mint Man said:
			
		

> So what do all you ASFers think will happen tomorrow?
> with the nikkei down 605 and hang seng down 627 atm, I think this will give the FTSE and dow a negative lead again.... and then onto us, the ASX.
> Do you think we could see another fall like today's?
> I think we may well see kennas's 5700 prediction (from realist's thread) reached if we see the FTSE and dow panic.
> ...




I think Kennas was looking for more like...5400....and i think he may be right. It may take a few days to get there, or even weeks. But i refuse to believe that after a few funds unwind thier long positions we'll be in this territory again for a while. 

I say a three wave corrective move, bouncing on 5600 before finally being absorbed at 5400...big call though.

No doubt Nick will have something on his site tonite that will be far more reliable.  

Cheers,


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## stoxclimber (28 February 2007)

I think the all ords will go up tomorrow.


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## Fab (28 February 2007)

I am hoping for some consolidation around 5800


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## doctorj (28 February 2007)

stoxclimber said:
			
		

> I think the all ords will go up tomorrow.



Might be right... last I looked Shanghai was up 1.7% in the afternoon session.  That said, MBL's afternoon performance looked ominous.


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## chris1983 (28 February 2007)

doctorj said:
			
		

> Might be right... last I looked Shanghai was up 1.7% in the afternoon session.  That said, MBL's afternoon performance looked ominous.




Up 2.13% Now and the shanghai index's fall is the main reason for all of the fus.  The DOW will have a strong day ahead and we should bounce strongly tomorrow.


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## Prospector (28 February 2007)

This is what seems to have triggered the Shanghai fall.......

http://www.smh.com.au/news/business/chinese-whispers-35b-wipeout/2007/02/28/1172338660892.html

ie - rumours of a 20% CGT in China.  These rumours have now been dispelled so time will tell.  The same article says the US just got themselves in a panic and off it went!


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## doctorj (28 February 2007)

Futures telling us anything?


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## Sean K (28 February 2007)

Might depend on what sort of 'rumours' are spread tonight. Can you believe that all this was over a rumour? Market was just looking for an excuse I reckon. Whatever happens, I'd just like a little stability. Gold can keep going up if it likes though.   

*China Tanks And The World Follows Suit*
FN Arena News - February 28 2007 

By Greg Peel

A rumour began in China yesterday that the Chinese government would intensify its austerity measures intended to crimp a raging economy by introducing a capital gains tax. The Shanghai index fell 8.8% from its record high the day before – the biggest single day fall since the death of Deng Xiaoping in 1997.


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## Freeballinginawetsuit (28 February 2007)

Every chance today was just a sucker rally but it was apparently clear that Liquidity was their to soak up value. Tommorow might test support again....the bears could have a win?.

The opportunities were their to trade the swings today or trade into volume in the ARVO out of positions. Personally the current stocks in my trading portfolio bounced strongly and closed well on top of my initial recent entry's. Only sold one today SMY and picked up IRN and MRE off the depth on weakness....happy with that.

Sadly the only losers were the ones out in the panic, caught up in the hype and oblivious to the liquidty in the market that was all too willing to sponge them up.

I think the willingness of money to enter the marketplace will remain for a while yet, although it will certainly be a PANIC when it exits/volume dry's up and momentum swings. Plenty of willing negativity out their to fuel the fire at any sign of a swing (just look at the rabid posting o/nite on ASF).......theyve been slogged over recent times and their time will come. Today they got slogged again  , here's hoping the same for tommorow


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## peterthomas (28 February 2007)

Im thinking as long as the Shanghai Market is up at close we should see a slightly better day tommorow (im not experienced enough to put a value on it), but all media consensus (i.e abc news ect) has been to calm investers, with most featured analysists saying dont panic.

im not going to trade till a clearer and stable direction has formed. And as for my current trades im holding and seeing what will happen instead of trying to predict in this current situation. (not including my BSL buywrite which will be exercised tommorow with nice profit)


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## hitmanlam (28 February 2007)

Interesting read.  This guy reckons 5600.


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## nizar (28 February 2007)

chris1983 said:
			
		

> Up 2.13% Now and the shanghai index's fall is the main reason for all of the fus.  The DOW will have a strong day ahead and we should bounce strongly tomorrow.




If Hong Kong and Japan dont care about what is happening in China today, what makes you think the US will?

China was just the trigger. You only need one trigger. Now the correction will feed on itself.

And its healthy for the market to have a correction once in a while maybe 8-10% off the XJO, before we are back into the strong uptrend.


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## nizar (28 February 2007)

Freeballinginawetsuit said:
			
		

> Only sold one today SMY and picked up IRN and MRE off the depth on weakness....happy with that.




SMY a real quality stock that one... Takeover soon?


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## Freeballinginawetsuit (28 February 2007)

nizar said:
			
		

> SMY a real quality stock that one... Takeover soon?





SMY is indeed a quality stock Nizar.........at least it was for me at $1.20  .
Certainly not as valuable as IRN at 60c though......each to their own.


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## Bush Trader (28 February 2007)

Freeballinginawetsuit said:
			
		

> Every chance today was just a sucker rally but it was apparently clear that Liquidity was their to soak up value. Tommorow might test support again....the bears could have a win?.
> 
> 
> I think the willingness of money to enter the marketplace will remain for a while yet, although it will certainly be a PANIC when it exits/volume dry's up and momentum swings. Plenty of willing negativity out their to fuel the fire at any sign of a swing (just look at the rabid posting o/nite on ASF).......theyve been slogged over recent times and their time will come. Today they got slogged again  , here's hoping the same for tommorow





Im in total agreement wetsiut.  I believe the prefered trem fro sucker ralley is "dead cat bounce."  It would be interesting to know how much "tax advantaged" self managed super as well as fund contributions entered the market from the sidelines today, biding their time for the correction that everyone believed would happen before May - hence the liquidity.  Margin loans may not have got hot yet and caused forced selling, mabey only for the hard core bulls.  I did nothing today, I learned a hard lesson last year jumping in too early with leveraged trades.  I hope I have truly missed an oportunity however I think there is worse to come, and I've never been a bear or taken a short position in my life.

Good Luck


Cheers


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## chops_a_must (28 February 2007)

kennas said:
			
		

> Might depend on what sort of 'rumours' are spread tonight. Can you believe that all this was over a rumour? Market was just looking for an excuse I reckon. Whatever happens, I'd just like a little stability. Gold can keep going up if it likes though.






			
				nizar said:
			
		

> If Hong Kong and Japan dont care about what is happening in China today, what makes you think the US will?
> 
> China was just the trigger. You only need one trigger. Now the correction will feed on itself.
> 
> And its healthy for the market to have a correction once in a while maybe 8-10% off the XJO, before we are back into the strong uptrend.



I am in total agreeance with these opinions. I think we will continue to see a bear campaign on the resource stocks for the next few weeks, especially the speccie U stocks. But it's also going to be on a case by case basis. I don't think nicklers will tank for instance, but those that follow the copper price especially might.

I'm going to look for opportunities in the biotech sector because they have little exposure to the china markets, and the stocks in this sector that I follow, held up brilliantly today. Same with the gas stocks which are exposed mainly internally to Australia.

Also the financial sector may take the lead of the US finance sector. But resource stocks and financials dominate the ASX so the trend will be down overall in the near term.

Really only going to be looking seriously at biotechs and gas plays for the next few weeks.

But really, this is just going to be an excuse to get rid of the go nowhere (mainly) U stocks that have attracted so much stupid money. Just look for stuff that people can't do without.

But yes, biotech to bounce, and keep an eye on the gas sector...


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## purple (28 February 2007)

fall a bit more i suppose..

herd mentality still strong...everyone is still watching everyone else.

   

although I want it to be the exact opposite!


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## professor_frink (28 February 2007)

I reckon we'll be up.

Dow futures currently up 95, S&P up 11. Still a long way to go before They open but  
If Europe doesn't overreact to the downside, then there could be a bit of a short squeeze tonight.


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## bean (28 February 2007)

UP - US markets will probably rise. we will rise and uramium stock some will be O/K. The US market will fall and correct not just yet though. was ovebought but some pressure taken of that
If it was to fall or falter the next two days then a correction would be happening.
I think DOW futures up 100 points


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## robandcoll (28 February 2007)

China's Stocks Climb, Cutting Losses; China Yangtze Advances 

By Zhang Shidong

Feb. 28 (Bloomberg) -- China's stocks climbed, cutting some of yesterday's losses, after official media reports said the government won't impose capital gains taxes on stocks and will allow overseas investors to buy more domestic equities. 

China United Telecommunications Corp. and China Yangtze Power Co., owner of the world's biggest hydropower project, led gains among stocks that plunged yesterday on concern a government crackdown on investments with borrowed money would end a rally that drove benchmarks to records. 

``Confidence is regaining now after the rumors that hit the market yesterday,'' said Lu Yizhen, who helps manage about $640 million at Citic-Prudential Fund Management Co. in Shanghai. ``For the long-term, China's stocks still point to an upside trend.'' 

The Shanghai and Shenzhen 300 Index, which tracks yuan- denominated A shares listed on China's two exchanges, advanced 3.5 percent to 2542.95 as of 2:55 p.m. local time. It earlier fell as much as 1.8 percent. The measure plunged 9.2 percent yesterday, the most since 1997. 

The Shanghai Composite Index rose 3.9 percent to 2880.57, while the Shenzhen Composite Index gained 4 percent to 738.28. 

The 300 index is valued at 38 times earnings, compared with 15 times for the Morgan Stanley Capital International Emerging Markets Index. The Dow Jones Industrial Average yesterday tumbled as much as 546 points, the most since the first trading day after the Sept. 11, 2001, terrorist attacks. 

The government said it won't impose a capital gains tax on stock investments, the Shanghai Securities News reported, citing unidentified officials at the finance ministry and tax bureau. 

Meanwhile, China may allow qualified foreign investors to buy as much as $120 billion of domestic equities, an equivalent to 10 percent the value of China's stock market, the Oriental Morning Post reported, citing unidentified regulatory officials. 

Overseas investors are currently restricted to owning $9.95 billion of mainland shares, less than 1 percent of the total market. 

To contact the reporter on this story: Zhang Shidong in Shanghai at at szhang5@bloomberg.net 

Last Updated: February 28, 2007 01:55 EST


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## CanOz (28 February 2007)

nizar said:
			
		

> If Hong Kong and Japan dont care about what is happening in China today, what makes you think the US will?
> 
> China was just the trigger. You only need one trigger. Now the correction will feed on itself.
> 
> And its healthy for the market to have a correction once in a while maybe 8-10% off the XJO, before we are back into the strong uptrend.




 :iagree:


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## steven1234 (28 February 2007)

I expect a rise tomorrow.  

There are too many bargains to jump on at the moment and there is too much liquidity waiting to jump into the market.  Most of my holdings took a decent hit today but recovered quite well (all things considered).  

I wish i had some more cash laying around to take advantage of some of the bargains popping up througout the day.


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## mmmmining (28 February 2007)

It is tough to pick market movement correctly for one day. But I believe all the mining profit will keep Aussie economy engine running well, and super money will keep flow into the stock market.

Chinese correction is not related to underline strength of economic activity, but deflation of a bobble caused by restriction of pension fund's investment, and extremely money over supply. 

The average Chinese has so much saving, and so much cash. They want better return from saving account. I read report that ordinary Chinese are line up to open stock trading account recently. Last time it happened is 1998-2001 before the stockmarket took downturn in 2002. 

My predication s that the Chinese bull market will last till the beginning of 2008 Olympic Games. It will be my cash in time for my stock portfolio in ASX...

I am more worry if commodity price take a big hit.


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## vicb (28 February 2007)

http://www.theedgedaily.com/cms/con...e.Article_7496e9d0-cb73c03a-11a0d350-9bf26694

China shares rebound 3.9% after Feb 27's plunge 


China's main stock index rebounded nearly 4% on Feb 28, recovering more than a third of losses suffered on Feb 27, when it posted its biggest fall in a decade. 

The Shanghai Composite Index, which unsettled markets around the world by plunging 8.84% on Feb 27, closed 3.94% higher at 2,881.073 points in heavy trade. It was less than eight points off its intra-day high. 

Local mutual funds, believing Feb 27's rush to take profits at record high levels did not herald the start of a longer-term bear market in Chinese stocks, poured back into financial blue chips, traders said. -- Reuters 

Will be interesting to watch wall street


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## mmmmining (28 February 2007)

The bear party is still on, all European markets are down 1-2%


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## bean (28 February 2007)

DOW FUTURES RISING
http://www2.barchart.com/mktcom.asp?code=BSTK&section=indices


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## Freeballinginawetsuit (28 February 2007)

The European Markets are just killing time till the US markets open>spike either way accordingly. Up IMO, probably just a knee jerk bounce....lets see!

Need a bit of time for the dust to settle and if it were that easy to call, everyone would have been punting today


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## bean (28 February 2007)

DOW FUTURES RISING MORE


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## chris1983 (28 February 2007)

Im picking a recovery tonight on the DOW.  Lots of bargains there atm.  Another article below for those who like to read.

http://www.iht.com/articles/ap/2007/02/28/business/AS-FIN-China-Stocks.php


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## 56gsa (28 February 2007)

Was in meetings all day and missed all the excitement.

But a bit perplexed about why a correction on an over-heated exchange that probably still does not really reflect the country's economic situation (it languished for 6 years when the country was growing at 10%?!). 

What it does reflect is China's immature financial system that has not been tested by shocks and the like... eg China's notoriously indebted banking system, but then China has ways of dealing with these situations that others don't - eg the state steps in...

Market to cautiously rise tomorrow.

US situtation far more significant to global markets.


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## eMark (28 February 2007)

bean said:
			
		

> DOW FUTURES RISING MORE




I've noticed that too, somehow it doesn't appear right. I thought the current 100+ futures may have something to do with (making up for?) the glitch which caused the DOW to fall 200 in 5 minutes.


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## Garpal Gumnut (28 February 2007)

Tomorrow, the sun will rise, the birds will sing and the temperature will rise.

Today should have been planned for by all traders/investors., whether short , medium or long term.

Who knows what the market will do.

Plan for all eventualities

Garpal


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## Halba (28 February 2007)

By tomorrow afternoon it'll bottom and there will be green.

FTSE down 95-100pts, but it looks near bottom to my eyes.


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## Knobby22 (28 February 2007)

Bears will have to buy tomorrow to cover their shorts or they will lose them.


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## PhoenixXx (28 February 2007)

Hopefully we would see green tomorrow as Shanghai market recovered. Australian market which is driven by resources should at least bounce from today's tumbling.

Shanghai Composite China 2,881.073 6:00PM AEST  109.282 (3.94%)


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## sydney1963 (28 February 2007)

PhoenixXx said:
			
		

> Hopefully we would see green tomorrow as Shanghai market recovered. Australian market which is driven by resources should at least bounce from today's tumbling.
> 
> Shanghai Composite China 2,881.073 6:00PM AEST  109.282 (3.94%)



Please go to 

http://www.cnbc.com/


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## YOUNG_TRADER (28 February 2007)

nizar said:
			
		

> If Hong Kong and Japan dont care about what is happening in China today, what makes you think the US will?
> 
> *China was just the trigger. You only need one trigger. Now the correction will feed on itself.*




Wise words, very very wise words and I couldn't agree more, it was a case of any excuse will do.

I think we won't know which way its all going till Monday


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## chansw (28 February 2007)

*European shares pare losses, US futures up*
Wed Feb 28, 2007 5:53am ET

http://today.reuters.com/news/articleinvesting.aspx?view=CN&storyID=2007-02-28T105252Z_01_L28708788_RTRIDST_0_MARKETS-EUROPE-STOCKS-RECOVERY-URGENT.XML&rpc=66&type=qcna

LONDON, Feb 28 (Reuters) - European shares halved earlier losses on Wednesday to trade less than 1 percent lower as corporate news and re-emerging takeover talk boosted markets, and U.S. index futures rose.

At 1041 GMT, the FTSEurofirst 300 index <.FTEU3> of top European shares was down 0.95 percent at 1,491.86 points, up from an intraday low of 1,473.66.

French group Carrefour (CARR.PA: Quote, Profile , Research) rose 2.8 percent on market talk of a leveraged buyout, while Volkswagen (VOWG.DE: Quote, Profile , Research) led German gainers with a 2.5-percent rise on strong results from its Audi unit.

"Should the markets have been down 3 percent yesterday? Probably not. So, it's just a matter of people adjusting to what's been going on since yesterday," a trader at a French brokerage said.

Dow Jones industrial average <DJc1>, Nasdaq <NDc1> and the S&P 500 <SPc1> futures were all up around 1 percent after a sharp slide in U.S. markets on Tuesday.


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## The Mint Man (1 March 2007)

Seem to have started off on the right foot this morning, up 20 points ATM.  

Anyone think this may be a dead cat bounce?


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## insider (1 March 2007)

The Mint Man said:
			
		

> Seem to have started off on the right foot this morning, up 20 points ATM.
> 
> Anyone think this may be a dead cat bounce?



 No... wallstreet finished higher... Australian Fundamentals are top quality


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## Freeballinginawetsuit (1 March 2007)

Freeballinginawetsuit said:
			
		

> The opportunities were their to trade the swings today or trade into volume in the ARVO out of positions. Personally the current stocks in my trading portfolio bounced strongly and closed well on top of my initial recent entry's. Only sold one today SMY and picked up IRN and MRE off the depth on weakness....happy with that.





Well I am out of MRE now and picked up some PDN , still holding IRN though, keeping a close eye on BSG and ZFX for some weakness.

Still wary though.....low volumes ATM


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## nizar (1 March 2007)

Freeballinginawetsuit said:
			
		

> Well I am out of MRE now and picked up some PDN , still holding IRN though, keeping a close eye on BSG and ZFX for some weakness.
> 
> Still wary though.....low volumes ATM




Nice daytrade freeball.
I picked up a few PDN this morning as well.


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## Out Too Soon (1 March 2007)

I think BSG as weak as it's gonna get, I got out @ 3.24 few days ago, now I'm back in.   
Never seem to be able to get back in ZFX tho   
chasing OXR atm- got it


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## eMark (1 March 2007)

Out Too Soon said:
			
		

> Never seem to be able to get back in ZFX tho




You mean at the start of today's trade, or did you have a price in mind?


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## hitmanlam (1 March 2007)

I'm all cash up right now.  I dunno.....  In one hand, i don't wanna miss the boat and get back in.  But there's something in the market that isn't quite right.    I dunno what it is.  Gonna go with my gut instincts.  So I will wait till monday..........


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## Out Too Soon (1 March 2007)

eMark said:
			
		

> You mean at the start of today's trade, or did you have a price in mind?




Hehehe! I actually got sick of chasing the sp up on ZFX, left an order in @ 16.81 & promptly forgot abt it busy chasing others, bought GBG (again) & sold JML (again), watched the ABC news & SBS American "Nightly Business Report" & whaddya know I find I'm a Zinifex holder again @ last. So Hitmanlam hope you just ate something wrong   (gut instinct : ) there's got to be another correction by June at least I think but- hopefully we can squeeeeze some more out in the mean time.


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## justjohn (1 March 2007)

hitmanlam said:
			
		

> I'm all cash up right now.  I dunno.....  In one hand, i don't wanna miss the boat and get back in.  But there's something in the market that isn't quite right.    I dunno what it is.  Gonna go with my gut instincts.  So I will wait till monday..........



As far as I'm concerned it's early days yet, the market has only dropped about 3% over the last couple of days things are just warming up. Have been sitting on the sideline since August being a patient spectator as they say ''it wont happen overnight but it'll eventually happen'' :  :beat:


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## eMark (1 March 2007)

justjohn said:
			
		

> As far as I'm concerned it's early days yet, the market has only dropped about 3% over the last couple of days things are just warming up. Have been sitting on the sideline since August being a patient spectator as they say ''it wont happen overnight but it'll eventually happen'' :  :beat:




Since August? A lot of water has passed under the bridge since then....Are you referring to a crash I hope? Not a correction/s.


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## eMark (1 March 2007)

Out Too Soon said:
			
		

> Hehehe! I actually got sick of chasing the sp up on ZFX, left an order in @ 16.81 & promptly forgot abt it busy chasing others, bought GBG (again) & sold JML (again), watched the ABC news & SBS American "Nightly Business Report" & whaddya know I find I'm a Zinifex holder again @ last. So Hitmanlam hope you just ate something wrong   (gut instinct : ) there's got to be another correction by June at least I think but- hopefully we can squeeeeze some more out in the mean time.




Well the 16.80's kept tempting me, but I also kept missing them, only to get in at 17.04, and guess what, it's back to 16.80's again. Oh well, just trying position myself somehwhere coming up to ex-dividend.


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## justjohn (1 March 2007)

eMark said:
			
		

> Since August? A lot of water has passed under the bridge since then....Are you referring to a crash I hope? Not a correction/s.



Didn't want to risk good returns so opted to get out about 6/7 months ago .You're right about a lot of water under the bridge could of made another 50-60k in meantime ,not looking for a crash, just a nice fat juicy correction  10% would be a nice round figure :


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## The Mint Man (1 March 2007)

justjohn said:
			
		

> As far as I'm concerned it's early days yet, the market has only dropped about 3% over the last couple of days things are just warming up. Have been sitting on the sideline since August being a patient spectator as they say ''it wont happen overnight but it'll eventually happen'' :  :beat:




bottom pickers get dirty fingers dont cha know john?  
But hey... youve done well over the last couple of years so Im guessing your not worried?
Though.... you must be a bit pissed about missing out on some of the gains that you would have had : 

cheers


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## justjohn (1 March 2007)

The Mint Man said:
			
		

> bottom pickers get dirty fingers dont cha know john?
> But hey... youve done well over the last couple of years so Im guessing your not worried?
> Though.... you must be a bit pissed about missing out on some of the gains that you would have had :
> 
> cheers



the thing that pisses me off worse is buying scratches to people who pick penny stocks :fu:


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## The Mint Man (1 March 2007)

justjohn said:
			
		

> the thing that pisses me off worse is buying scratches to people who pick penny stocks :fu:



 :nosympath 
Good point.... maybe you should just give the money to me to buy it.....
I mean its obvious that you cant pick winers :beat:   oh yeah :dance:


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## The Mint Man (1 March 2007)

looks like were gonna end up down today after what looked like a good start this morning people.


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## petee (1 March 2007)

IMHO fun and games ahead..i think we will really start to see a major correction and wouldnt be a bad thing thats for sure..


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## justjohn (1 March 2007)

The Mint Man said:
			
		

> :nosympath
> Good point.... maybe you should just give the money to me to buy it.....
> I mean its obvious that you cant pick winers :beat:   oh yeah :dance:



 :topic thats a bit harsh, are you on the JDs we'll take this up privately before people who care about this thread (which you posted) fire up anyway mint at least i can spell winners :


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## chops_a_must (1 March 2007)

The Mint Man said:
			
		

> looks like were gonna end up down today after what looked like a good start this morning people.



I think tomorrow will be the worst day. Looks as if the instos are using today to offload.


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## The Mint Man (1 March 2007)

come now john... no need to get teary on me : in fact I think were even now (from memory) 3 for me 3 for you.


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## The Mint Man (1 March 2007)

chops_a_must said:
			
		

> I think tomorrow will be the worst day. Looks as if the instos are using today to offload.



yes it will be interesting. just wait and see ay!


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## eMark (1 March 2007)

chops_a_must said:
			
		

> I think tomorrow will be the worst day. Looks as if the instos are using today to offload.




Could you expand a little?


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## chops_a_must (1 March 2007)

eMark said:
			
		

> Could you expand a little?



*sprinkles self with self-raising flour*

But seriously.
A very elementary warning sign (and I am a novice). Beware of a higher moving share price, on very low volume. Obviously big investors (be they instos or whatever) can't get rid of their numbers in a hurry without tanking the individual stocks. But if there begins to be a lack of buyers... like there was this afternoon, it begins to break down anyway.


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## Atomic5 (1 March 2007)

Very wierd that. Saw it. Stayed out of it. Hope you're right.


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