# Gamble - Am I nuts?



## liztrader (9 September 2013)

Buying Sept expiry SPY (S&P500 ETF) Put strike @ 163.

If Syria lights up AND Bernake pulls the pin watch that US equity market go into a tail spin, could make some nice cash out of a few hundred dollar gamble!

The EBIT's on the US market have to come back to fundamental levels, back to earth, off the cocaine, and somewhat close the their book values.

Dont usually play with options but I love the limited downside, unlimited upside component!


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## minwa (14 September 2013)

Goodluck, buying a put option when you have the conviction its going down is not nuts.


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## tech/a (14 September 2013)

Short the S&P
It doesn't suffer from time decay


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## wayneL (14 September 2013)

tech/a said:


> Short the S&P
> It doesn't suffer from time decay




SP doesn't have +gamma, vis a vis has constant delta. Ergo potentially disastrous if wrong.

+vega an attraction too for the downside.


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## omad (15 September 2013)

Under 10% probability of being in the money at expiry.


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## wayneL (15 September 2013)

liztrader said:


> Buying Sept expiry SPY (S&P500 ETF) Put strike @ 163.
> 
> If Syria lights up AND Bernake pulls the pin watch that US equity market go into a tail spin, could make some nice cash out of a few hundred dollar gamble!
> 
> ...




TBH I didn't really look at the series you selected. That option may have looked cheap, but I think I would have gone for some more time and been longer vega. The vol rush is a nice bonus if you get these right.


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## liztrader (27 September 2013)

Well team, the pokie button was hit, the lines rolled over but NO win this time.

Uncle Ben left his $85B on the table and Obama slinked out of war by asking the public (thankfully).

You watch Benny pull his pin now... 

Maybe I'll get myself a few Oct Puts 

Welcome to the biggest Casino in the world!


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## Craton (27 September 2013)

Gambling? The s/market a casino? No, don't believe it! It's a conspiracy I tells ya! 

Thanks for sharing the punt liztrader.


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## CanOz (27 September 2013)

liztrader said:


> Well team, the pokie button was hit, the lines rolled over but NO win this time.
> 
> Uncle Ben left his $85B on the table and Obama slinked out of war by asking the public (thankfully).
> 
> ...




either way we are going to see a pretty good pop, we've been trading in a range in Europe and the US for nearly a week...Straddle the range with options maybe?


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## burglar (27 September 2013)

CanOz said:


> either way we are going to see a pretty good pop, we've been trading in a range in Europe and the US for nearly a week...Straddle the range with options maybe?








Be very careful about what you straddle!


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## CanOz (27 September 2013)

lol..........

Nice cracker!


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