# ELD - Elders Limited



## etingsoon (4 September 2009)

Hi all, 

I had noticed on the ELD share which is currently on trading halt. Does anyone know what is happening with the stock?

Cheers
Andrew


----------



## Peanut (4 September 2009)

Cap Raising taking place at 15c!  Haven't done the sums re the extent of dilution but expect sp to tank significantly next week.  Esp given that divd suspension will not be lifted until 2012!


----------



## blanker (7 September 2009)

Does anyone have thoughts on this stock? The recent sales, capital raising & yearly reports have all been announced & in 26 minutes of the trading halt being lifted the share dropped 42% in 26 minutes. 

The company has strong brand loyalty in a tough market segment & forecast for 2010 are positive. So has the market over reacted? Thoughts?


----------



## skc (7 September 2009)

blanker said:


> Does anyone have thoughts on this stock? The recent sales, capital raising & yearly reports have all been announced & in 26 minutes of the trading halt being lifted the share dropped 42% in 26 minutes.
> 
> The company has strong brand loyalty in a tough market segment & forecast for 2010 are positive. So has the market over reacted? Thoughts?




The magnitude of the fall isn't that much of an over-reaction.

Last trade price $0.39 and market cap ~$180m (820m shares on issue). 

Now raising $550m at $0.15, equating to 3666m new shares.

So the theoretical price is something like ($180 + $550) / (820 + 3666) = ~16-17c.

The market is already giving ELD a higher valuation as the company is deemed to be saved from going belly up.

Luckily... I hold a very small position of ELD (47 shares!) and can paritcipate in the SPP for up to $20K. Let's hope there is no scale back based on existing holding!


----------



## skyQuake (7 September 2009)

skc said:


> The magnitude of the fall isn't that much of an over-reaction.
> 
> Last trade price $0.39 and market cap ~$180m (820m shares on issue).
> 
> ...




0.39*820 = $319M Mkt cap
Think you did a fat finger there 
But I'll let you sell them to me for 18c


----------



## GumbyLearner (7 September 2009)

They sold their two most profitable interests last financial year. Their entire  stake in AAC and another chunk of Elders Bank to BEN. Look elsewhere IMHO!

DYOR


----------



## skc (7 September 2009)

skyQuake said:


> 0.39*820 = $319M Mkt cap
> Think you did a fat finger there
> But I'll let you sell them to me for 18c




Oops.. lucky I wasn't the re-capping ELD. Just took the market cap number from today rather than last week.

Anyway, SPP still looking good 



GumbyLearner said:


> They sold their two most profitable interests last financial year. Their entire  stake in AAC and another chunk of Elders Bank to BEN. Look elsewhere IMHO!
> 
> DYOR




Always a catch 22 isn't it? They said they won't sell the Futuris auto parts before the auto market improves. Why would you want to sell it then if the market is improving?


----------



## investormichael (7 September 2009)

Even with Market Cap of 39 cents a share. Its still an ex rights price of 19-20 cents so why is it trading at 25 cents a shares?


----------



## oldblue (7 September 2009)

investormichael said:


> Even with Market Cap of 39 cents a share. Its still an ex rights price of 19-20 cents so why is it trading at 25 cents a shares?




Probably because the market likes the capital raising, thinks it has fixed ELD's problem and is valuing the company's future prospects accordingly.

Disc: Not holding.


----------



## Surfer35 (7 September 2009)

Chart wise what do you guys think? Significant gap down but a strong close (in respect of the daily low) on good volume. Seems like there could be either a quick bounce trade for a full or partial gap fill or the alternative scenario of an island top reversal and a resumption of the down trend.

I bought some on close in the hope of the former.


----------



## Miner (7 September 2009)

I read a commentary from Lincoln  Stock Doctor about ELD which is interesting
Disclaimer : DNH 

" Analyst's summary 
http://client.lincolnindicators.com.au/sg_current/index.html

ELD is classic case that highlights the importance of applying Lincoln’s Golden Rule No. 1 and reviewing a company’s Financial Health prior to making any investment decision. On 1 September 2009, ELD was suspended from the ASX official quotation for failure to lodge their FY09 annual results and only began trading again on 7 September 2009 following late lodgement. The company has performed dismally in the previous three reporting periods, with EPS declining since 1 July 2007. Most significantly, ELD’s Financial Health has deteriorated from Strong to Marginal in this time. The company has high gearing levels and continues to exhibit weakness across its Profit and Loss and Cash Flow statements. Although, ELD is yet to have their FY09 annual results analysed within Stock Doctor, it is evident that the company’s Financial Health will not improve. 

Since ELD’s Financial Health was re-classified from Strong to Early Warning in April 2008, the company’s share price has declined by 81.52 per cent. The negative sentiment on the stock is expected to persist with the company announcing another net loss for the full-year FY09 due to a 20 per cent drop in revenues for the period, as a result of lower contributions from all operating divisions except financial services. On 4 September 2009, ELD announced a comprehensive recapitalisation and refinancing strategy involving an equity raising of up to $550 million and asset sales worth $700 million. While this may be a short-term solution, the company displays an unacceptable level of Financial Health. *Investors may be wise to seek alternate investment opportunities.*"


----------



## drsmith (7 September 2009)

This must have come horribly close to the administrators desk.

Even with the recapitalisation it's lenders are still calling the shots as to when dividends can start to flow to shareholders.


----------



## etingsoon (8 September 2009)

skc said:


> Luckily... I hold a very small position of ELD (47 shares!) and can paritcipate in the SPP for up to $20K. Let's hope there is no scale back based on existing holding!





How do you know that there going to have SPP for this share? I bought the share, but didn't receive any notice on SPP.


----------



## zzaaxxss3401 (8 September 2009)

etingsoon said:


> How do you know that there going to have SPP for this share? I bought the share, but didn't receive any notice on SPP.




Check out the Elder's Offer website: www(dot)elders-offer(dot)com(dot)au/keydates/

Apparently I need to have several posts before embedding a link. 

Pete.


----------



## oldblue (8 September 2009)

Here's the announcement about Elder's capital raising.

Includes an SPP of up to $20,000 which is at the upper end of such issues these days.

http://www.asx.com.au/asxpdf/20090904/pdf/31kkhdx52hbpv0.pdf


----------



## Miner (8 September 2009)

etingsoon said:


> How do you know that there going to have SPP for this share? I bought the share, but didn't receive any notice on SPP.




I believe the record date for being eligible for SPP rights was 4th Sept. The trading was halted and then the share price dived by 37% or so. It rose slightly up today but all are XR status. 
Please double check with  ASX and / or company website.
DNH


----------



## jabren (17 September 2009)

Hi,Being a beginner at investing I would like someone to explain how a company of Elders size can improve its share price with 4.5 billion shares out there. Do I unload my shares now or take up the offer.


----------



## jimmyboy (17 September 2009)

jabren said:


> Hi,Being a beginner at investing I would like someone to explain how a company of Elders size can improve its share price with 4.5 billion shares out there. Do I unload my shares now or take up the offer.




I'm taking up the offer for all I can get....considering the share price today is still around 0.23 then why would you expect it to be less when the new shares are placed...?

_Edit: I probably should elaborate a bit...consider this: 24600 shares purchased a month ago for 0.405
Take up the offer of $20k of shares @ 0.15 = 133,333 new shares
giving and average buy price of just under 0.19.
At todays price this amounts to a profit of $6300 aprox
A bit better than the original - $4300 loss currently....!_

 It's now trading all the latest news and announcements re: the refinance so it's trading at a premium to the offer...lucky you who has the chance to make a decent profit for your troubles of being a ELD shareholder...you should think long term too....

Also, unloading now you need to consider what loss or profit you have made thus far and don't count on being able to get the full $20k of new shares as I feel it will be scaled back as people realise they stand to make a motza.

The first few days of trading the new shares will be hectic as short term thinkers will bail out but the sensible ones will stick around and make the big profits.

Just my opinion and you need to consider your circumstances by yourself and not rely on my thoughts as part of your investing plans.


----------



## Anthony Hosemans (22 September 2009)

I have already applied for my $20000 entitlement, just in case the issue closes earlier than the closing date. One point I noticed from the propectus was the entire $150 million under the SPP would be taken up if only 20% of shareholders take up their quota of $20000. I would expect a bigger percentage to take up their entitlement, although many smaller shareholders will only take up a proportion, and American shareholders aren't allowed to participate. In other words, more than likely, applications will be scaled back on the basis of oversubscriptions received. You are entitled to apply for additional shares, but will that give you the possibility of a bigger allocation? It all depends on how the company sorts it out which hasn't been spelt out in the propectus. All in all though the issue is worthwhile taking up, it's money for jam! Regards Kooka


----------



## jimmyboy (23 September 2009)

The closing date of the SPP is locked in and the raising has to be voted in at the EGM on 15 Oct before anything will go ahead.

It's my undrstanding that if you apply for more than $20K and the SPP is NOT oversubscribed then you would receive shares on a pro rata basis. if it is oversubscribed then you wiull be scaled back in a relative manner.

I will be subscribing for more than $20k.....but not until after the EGM. They cannot close it early.


----------



## Albi (6 October 2009)

ELD is stuck on .230/235.    Since last few days in the morning sp looks nomal but after 2:00 pm sellers increase and buyers are reduced and again at 3:45 buyers are increased. Does any one know about this trend?


----------



## Scrud (15 October 2009)

13% drop this arvo... M&G selling out? last minute cash out for SPP before contract date to get cash for next friday b/pay? whos selling?


----------



## Albi (15 October 2009)

Uffffffffffffff so much down. I checked at 2pm. it was arround .230 as it is usually but now at .20 and at .20c someone is selling arround 20 m shares. Does any body know, will it go down more or come back again. new.


----------



## Dreadweave (15 October 2009)

Albi said:


> Uffffffffffffff so much down. I checked at 2pm. it was arround .230 as it is usually but now at .20 and at .20c someone is selling arround 20 m shares. Does any body know, will it go down more or come back again. new.





Dunno whats going on here, Im tempted to jump in and try pick up some at 0.2 tomorrow morning, but having no idea what has happened im not too sure.

edit: Seems there was an elders general meeting today, I cant seem to find any info on it though.


----------



## skyQuake (15 October 2009)

Dreadweave said:


> Dunno whats going on here, Im tempted to jump in and try pick up some at 0.2 tomorrow morning, but having no idea what has happened im not too sure.
> 
> edit: Seems there was an elders general meeting today, I cant seem to find any info on it though.




Approval of conditional placement and SPP, don't know what that was a key reason to sell though. Picking bottoms may be quite dangerous here.


----------



## Garpal Gumnut (15 October 2009)

skyQuake said:


> Approval of conditional placement and SPP, don't know what that was a key reason to sell though. Picking bottoms may be quite dangerous here.




Mate I tried to work this company out many years ago and couldn't.

Its all a bit incestuous.

I would stay well away as stronger operators are buying and selling constantly.

Its like a one legged line dancer , you just never know what he's going to do.

gg


----------



## skc (15 October 2009)

skyQuake said:


> Approval of conditional placement and SPP, don't know what that was a key reason to sell though. Picking bottoms may be quite dangerous here.






Garpal Gumnut said:


> Mate I tried to work this company out many years ago and couldn't.
> 
> Its all a bit incestuous.
> 
> ...




No doubt you guys are talking this down so you can get your allocation above the $20K SPP...  although I must admit the chart looks bullish only if you turn it upside down.


----------



## Garpal Gumnut (15 October 2009)

skc said:


> No doubt you guys are talking this down so you can get your allocation above the $20K SPP...  although I must admit the chart looks bullish only if you turn it upside down.




Mate, I haven't even looked at the chart.

You might be better sticking to hotcopper.

That is an honest opinion.

I haven't looked at elders for yonks but will have a look at the chart and let you know my opinion.

Nobody "talks down" stocks on asf. 

Comb your mullet and observe.

gg


----------



## skc (15 October 2009)

Garpal Gumnut said:


> Mate, I haven't even looked at the chart.
> 
> You might be better sticking to hotcopper.
> 
> ...




It was actually a joke I was running with Skyquake on BLY... perhaps I shouldn't have included you. 

I don't even have a hotcopper account, but my mullet is always well gelled.


----------



## Garpal Gumnut (15 October 2009)

skc said:


> No doubt you guys are talking this down so you can get your allocation above the $20K SPP...  although I must admit the chart looks bullish only if you turn it upside down.




skc

I do like your tag

trading like a dog.

very apt.

2 charts for you , one longer term and one recently.

I have not seen a dog chart such as this for a long long time.

However there are many blue bloods associated with elders and it could be a bear trap, though I would not put my hard earned in to it on that assumption.

I have only been in the Melbourne Club by shinning down the Diggers Club, but thats now closed.


----------



## Realist (15 October 2009)

Garpal Gumnut said:


> I have not seen a dog chart such as this for a long long time.




Well Garpal, I'll give you a tip. I'm buying Elders!!

Why?  Because fundamentally it should/will be worth 15 times next years earnings which you'd think/hope will be around $50M NPAT - The market cap will need to quardupule in the meantime....

Charts Schmfarts.....

See you back at this thread this time next year....


----------



## Garpal Gumnut (15 October 2009)

Realist said:


> Well Garpal, I'll give you a tip. I'm buying Elders!!
> 
> Why?  Because fundamentally it should/will be worth 15 times next years earnings which you'd think/hope will be around $50M NPAT - The market cap will need to quardupule in the meantime....
> 
> ...




Good onya mate.

There are buyers and sellers and its a zero sum game

I wish you the best.

But what do you do if its delisted ??

gg


----------



## skyQuake (15 October 2009)

Are you kidding me? 15 times earnings? On What basis? They stripped the good parts as best as they could and left a shell of what was once a good business.

I'm have the option of purchasing it at 15c thru the SPP and I am heisitant. New lows on a massive downtrend? Not my cup of tea.

@skc, its always the stuff that screws up that you get full allocations for... I think I'll dip my toe into this one for a punt, but certainly not the full amount!


----------



## Realist (15 October 2009)

Garpal Gumnut said:


> But what do you do if its delisted ??





Who said it's gonna get delisted?  

I don't know and don't really care.

It's a successful and profitable company that had made healthy profits year after year until last years minor disaster which has bought the share price down enough to get me interested. They sold the insurance part to QBE, got rid of a few people, refocused, and we'll see hopefully a return to profit, which will increase the value of the company - and the share price.


----------



## Garpal Gumnut (15 October 2009)

Realist said:


> Well Garpal, I'll give you a tip. I'm buying Elders!!
> 
> Why?  Because fundamentally it should/will be worth 15 times next years earnings which you'd think/hope will be around $50M NPAT - The market cap will need to quardupule in the meantime....
> 
> ...




If you believe that Charts Schmfarts.....

Get yer moniker on HIH chart as it descended to nothing.

gg


----------



## skc (16 October 2009)

skyQuake said:


> I'm have the option of purchasing it at 15c thru the SPP and I am heisitant. New lows on a massive downtrend? Not my cup of tea.
> 
> @skc, its always the stuff that screws up that you get full allocations for... I think I'll dip my toe into this one for a punt, but certainly not the full amount!




I was expecting ELD to do a VBA... fall down close to the offer price just to scare some people off, before being re-rated as a going concern rather than a near bankrupt entity. The fact that QBE bought in was supposed to be a big thumbs up.

I was not hesitant at all on the SPP until today's price action (and your post. Damn you Skyquake !!). Surely the vote was not unexpected so don't really understand the high volume sell down. I think I will spend the weekend reading the announcements and the prospectus further.

And yes, it's a massive downtrend alright. But for a quick profit... the potential may be still there. 

Will it quadruple? Who knows? So many stocks have done that so why not ELD? I'd say more stocks have gone up 4x from the bottom than those that have been delisted. So at least statistics are on your side and you get a positive expectancy 

FWIW charts are no good at picking bottom until after they form.


----------



## skyQuake (16 October 2009)

skc said:


> I was expecting ELD to do a VBA... fall down close to the offer price just to scare some people off, before being re-rated as a going concern rather than a near bankrupt entity. The fact that QBE bought in was supposed to be a big thumbs up.
> 
> I was not hesitant at all on the SPP until today's price action (and your post. Damn you Skyquake !!). Surely the vote was not unexpected so don't really understand the high volume sell down. I think I will spend the weekend reading the announcements and the prospectus further.
> 
> ...




Actually now that I thought about it, I'm gonna see if I can get some borrow on the stock; If I can then I'm gonna apply for lots. I assume that big seller + all the other factors would have scared ppl (lol like me) into reducing their application or cancelling; giving the SPP a potentially better allocation.
Won't be holding long term, too many other corporate actions out there!


----------



## Scrud (16 October 2009)

another 5% drop and 20m shares traded this morning.... my guess is m&g selling out there stake as they didnt participate in any offer and are getting diluted from 15% to somthing crazy like 3%... might start buying back


----------



## skc (16 October 2009)

Realist said:


> Well Garpal, I'll give you a tip. I'm buying Elders!!
> 
> Why?  Because fundamentally it should/will be worth 15 times next years earnings which you'd think/hope will be around $50M NPAT - The market cap will need to quardupule in the meantime....
> 
> ...




You do realise the implication of the capital raising? It will significantly increase the capitalisation of teh company.

ELD has ~820m shares now. Raising $550m at 15c creates 3.67B new shares. So total no. of shares become ~4.5B shares.

So at 15x earnings of 50M NPAT, that's market cap of 750m. And what's the share price? 750m market cap / 4.5B shares = 16.7c.

So the new share issue was actually priced at multiple of ~13-14. 

The ELD shares are still trading above the theoretical ex-rights (placement) price.



skyQuake said:


> Actually now that I thought about it, I'm gonna see if I can get some borrow on the stock; If I can then I'm gonna apply for lots. I assume that big seller + all the other factors would have scared ppl (lol like me) into reducing their application or cancelling; giving the SPP a potentially better allocation.
> Won't be holding long term, too many other corporate actions out there!




I've already gone in with the house mortgaged and sold my car, yahct and private jet to fund this... I find it difficult to come up with a risk management strategy when it comes to capital raisings.

Now how do I reverse that BPay payment again?


----------



## skyQuake (16 October 2009)

Lucky i shorted before that iceberg came in at 19!
That'll be quite the hurdle. Yesterday's seller is back now in disguise


----------



## skc (16 October 2009)

skyQuake said:


> Lucky i shorted before that iceberg came in at 19!
> That'll be quite the hurdle. Yesterday's seller is back now in disguise




Who let you short ELD? If it's pre-selling for SPP, how much would you do it for?

Some rumour today about Chinese flirting with HiFert. If they get a good price, who knows.


----------



## freebird54 (17 October 2009)

I subscribe to a lot of the newsletters and the "experts" are divided on going for this
eg.
Rivkin - yes
Huntley - no
Eureka - each way bet?
Dyer - "the sky is going to fall in" so why do anything
Dent, Mcclellan and a few others in the same vein

etc.  etc..

what is the opinion here?


----------



## surfziggy (19 October 2009)

skc said:


> Who let you short ELD? If it's pre-selling for SPP, how much would you do it for?
> 
> Some rumour today about Chinese flirting with HiFert. If they get a good price, who knows.




SKC - Looks like he's not the only one shorting the hell out of it:

http://www.asx.com.au/data/shortsell.txt

6% of the stock is shorted according to the ASX page!


----------



## skyQuake (19 October 2009)

surfziggy said:


> SKC - Looks like he's not the only one shorting the hell out of it:
> 
> http://www.asx.com.au/data/shortsell.txt
> 
> 6% of the stock is shorted according to the ASX page!




Yup, thats me shorting all them shares :

The shares placed with instos trade tomorrow. Like 2.3 Billion shares. Mind boggling...


----------



## skc (19 October 2009)

surfziggy said:


> SKC - Looks like he's not the only one shorting the hell out of it:
> 
> http://www.asx.com.au/data/shortsell.txt
> 
> 6% of the stock is shorted according to the ASX page!




Nice. Thanks for the info.

Everyone's just shorting it now to profit from their SPP. With the share price the way it is and the various brokers being unsure about the placement, there is a good chance that one would get all the shares he/she apply for.

This mean the shorting pressure will definitely end at 15c, and there will be a huge amount of crossing on the first day of trade.

6% of stock is nothing, considering that the number of shares will increase by 4 fold...


----------



## skc (19 October 2009)

Spent the weekend reading all the ELD stuff.

Based on proforma NPAT of ~$50m in FY10, and a historical PE ratio of 15-16, the share price post re-cap "should" be about 18-19c. 

But there are lots of assumptions and faith required to believe that NPAT figure. Many of the factors are beyond the control of the management. What concerns me most are projected earnings from automotive and forestry. Both dog sectors that may get even worse. Their rural services probably has the most upside, not to mention potential takeover / consolidation.

The new CEO has done a great job saving the sinking ship, but it's not plain sailing yet.


----------



## surfziggy (20 October 2009)

skc said:


> 6% of stock is nothing, considering that the number of shares will increase by 4 fold...




Agreed - but compared to all the other securities it's an order of magnitude higher. I wonder how many people are also short via unhedged CFDs?


----------



## skyQuake (20 October 2009)

Still shortable under IG: http://www.igmarkets.com.au/content/files/List-of-shortable-stocks.pdf

Imo the CFD providers still have to report _net_ short sales to the ASX . So the ASX thing should be fairly accurate. 

Instos got their shares today. Buy at your peril!
Maybe once the instos get out it will put in a bounce, but I would certainly stay out s/t. (plus the avalanche when SPPs sell!)


----------



## skc (20 October 2009)

skyQuake said:


> Still shortable under IG: http://www.igmarkets.com.au/content/files/List-of-shortable-stocks.pdf
> 
> Imo the CFD providers still have to report _net_ short sales to the ASX . So the ASX thing should be fairly accurate.
> 
> ...




Thanks SkyQuake. I am pretty sure I couldn't short ELD on IG a few days ago. 

You just made me a few $$. I think I will hedge ~20% of my subscription - I doubt the scaleback would be that bad. And the rest of my subscription can sustain 5% below the issue price of 15c. Nice.

Now I just have to join the bloody queue... only 13m or so shares in front of me at 18c.


----------



## skc (20 October 2009)

skc said:


> Thanks SkyQuake. I am pretty sure I couldn't short ELD on IG a few days ago.
> 
> You just made me a few $$. I think I will hedge ~20% of my subscription - I doubt the scaleback would be that bad. And the rest of my subscription can sustain 5% below the issue price of 15c. Nice.
> 
> Now I just have to join the bloody queue... only 13m or so shares in front of me at 18c.




Now only 7.8m shares in front!

I can understand all the shorts, but I don't understand the heavy buys on the ladder... Almost 60m shares on the buy side down to 16c, but 20m on the sell side for the next 4 ticks.

Very fascinating. I wish I've done more research on how prices behave immediately leading up to SPP of such size.


----------



## skyQuake (20 October 2009)

skc said:


> Now only 7.8m shares in front!
> 
> I can understand all the shorts, but I don't understand the heavy buys on the ladder... Almost 60m shares on the buy side down to 16c, but 20m on the sell side for the next 4 ticks.
> 
> Very fascinating. I wish I've done more research on how prices behave immediately leading up to SPP of such size.




Its more Insto allocation relation than just SPP imo. The instos got their placement shares today, so I think that would be part of the early selloff.


----------



## Albi (20 October 2009)

It is closed at .185 and volume is also pretty good. Today lots of buy and buyers number is also double. I hope it will bounce back soon. 
Still holding ELD bought at .235.


----------



## skc (21 October 2009)

Still plenty of buyers lining up to take the share up to high of 20c. 

Roughly 70m shares on the buy side for 4 levels vs 54m on the sell.

Still have no idea who's doing all this buying and selling.


----------



## Albi (21 October 2009)

It is bouncing back. Now it is only 1:34 and volume is 123 m:There are some unusual trades. 
10:02    1,000,000     @ .180c
10:02    3,961,943     @ .180c
10:08    2,200,000     @ .185c
10:08    1,000,000     @ .185C
10.54    6,000,000     @ .190C
11:23   1,000,000     @  .185
11:45   1,000,000     @  .185C
11:50   7,000,000     @  .190
11:51   1,736,485     @ .190 C
11:51   1,000,000     @ .190C
11:51   1,000,000     @190 C
11:51   1,500,000     @  . 190 C
11:53   2,552,005     @ . 195C
11:54   1,000,000     @ .195C
11:58  1,000,000    @  .195
12:12  1,000,000    @ .195C
12:13  1,500,000    @ .195
12:16  1,000,000    @ .195C
12:53  8,000,000    @ .190C
12:55   8,000,000    @ . 192C

I hope soon it will come back. Your comments are appreciated. I am much worried because I bought it at .235c.


----------



## skc (21 October 2009)

Albi said:


> It is bouncing back. Now it is only 1:34 and volume is 123 m:There are some unusual trades.
> 10:02    1,000,000     @ .180c
> 10:02    3,961,943     @ .180c
> 10:08    2,200,000     @ .185c
> ...




I don't know what the true worth of the company is, but I do think that the trading between now and the new SPP shares being issued will have a mind of its own due to these events as opposed to a reflection of the true worth.

True worth may be higher, lower or same... and to some, it doesn't matter what the true worth was, as price is the only reality.


----------



## db96 (26 October 2009)

The SPP is oversubscribed. Looks like if u applied fo 20k u would get it. What about if u applied for more than 20k? Would u be guaranteed of atleast 20 k or would it be similar to the Santos and AWB SPP where they give u a certain amount depending on your original holding.


----------



## freebird54 (27 October 2009)

Anyone else had their Bpay transfer rejected even though it was put thru the day before closing? 

Using the new Commsec cash management a/c - rung them as they dont reply to emails for a few days and they say there is a problem.


----------



## kalgoo (28 October 2009)

freebird54 said:


> Anyone else had their Bpay transfer rejected even though it was put thru the day before closing?
> 
> Using the new Commsec cash management a/c - rung them as they dont reply to emails for a few days and they say there is a problem.




Hi freebird

After reading your post I was worried, so I checked my bpay transfer that I sent through on the 21/10 and it looks to be accepted (funds taken) I used Commbank.

I hope that you can sort it out.

Cheers


----------



## phishpheet (29 October 2009)

freebird54 said:


> Anyone else had their Bpay transfer rejected even though it was put thru the day before closing?
> 
> Using the new Commsec cash management a/c - rung them as they dont reply to emails for a few days and they say there is a problem.




Hi freebird I had a takeover offer form rejected  on another company 2 years ago, the problem was the fax i used to send the form didn't print clearly but my phone number was clear. The broker Etrade didn't ring to notify me of the problem. I asked for a copy of the  form and took the matter to head office as my phone number was clear. "Etrade coverd all loses incurred a substantial amount".

I know a Bpay transfer and a takeover offer form are diffrent but it may be worth asking for a copy of Bpay transfer rejection.


----------



## phishpheet (29 October 2009)

*Re: ELD - Elders consolidation*

Todays announcement 
Refocused, Reorganised, Recapitalised

From 819.2million shares to 4,486 million shares by 2 November (Consolidation likely).
IMO a 5 to 1 consolidation that would bring the shares back to the 800million mark at .15cents = .75cents a share a more tradeble price, and more attractive as a takeover target.


----------



## freebird54 (30 October 2009)

phishpheet said:


> Hi freebird I had a takeover offer form rejected  on another company 2 years ago, the problem was the fax i used to send the form didn't print clearly but my phone number was clear. The broker Etrade didn't ring to notify me of the problem. I asked for a copy of the  form and took the matter to head office as my phone number was clear. "Etrade coverd all loses incurred a substantial amount".
> 
> I know a Bpay transfer and a takeover offer form are diffrent but it may be worth asking for a copy of Bpay transfer rejection.



someone actually rung me [surrprise] to say they were "looking into it" but nothing heard since and emails not answered as usual


----------



## skc (2 November 2009)

Got my ELD shares today... the full $20K plus extra 1 shares. Yes 1 additional share when I actually applied for many many more. 

I was a proud holder of 47 ELD shares prior to the cap raising anyway so the scale back is fair enough I suppose.

Dumped all of them on the open and squared off my short hedge... not a bad way to get ~15% return in a month or so. Only wish they'd allocate the shares 2 weeks ago when it was trading at 20c.


----------



## alter1217 (6 December 2009)

Since the 'buzz' of the cap raising the stock has fallen to ~15 cents, and has now landed on my 'contrarian mode' watch list. I'm guessing the primary reason is because everyone paid 15c per share for the SPP, i.e the share is being valued atm at cost.

Looking at its past earnings.... suppose it can recover to previous earnings levels, you're still only looking at a P/E of around 10, because of the 4.5x increase in total shares outstanding..... but considering that it had sold so many profit generating assets in recent times, e.g insurance unit to QBE, recovering wouldn't be easy...... I think I can find better places to put my money.  

If it slips another 3 to 5 cents it will become deliciously tempting for me to buy some, though, for obvious reasons. 

Just my 2 cents. disc: I don't hold any ELD stocks but I hold some QBE stocks.


----------



## ricee007 (6 December 2009)

I am seriously looking at a small parcel of ELDPA. My investment horizon is July 2012.... and, as long one dividend, or redemption, occurs by then... I'll be golden. Literally  (Though, only small parcel... but, hey, an extra $2000 is an extra $2000).


----------



## Albi (7 December 2009)

You all guys are intelligent enough to save your money. I bought ELD at .235 and still holding. I coulnot sell due to my work engagements. Now loss is so much.....I even couldnot think but afraid of and very scared if sp further go down... Is there any chance of improvement.....
Any suggestion and advice will be appreciated.
Thanks in advance


----------



## ROE (7 December 2009)

Albi said:


> You all guys are intelligent enough to save your money. I bought ELD at .235 and still holding. I coulnot sell due to my work engagements. Now loss is so much.....I even couldnot think but afraid of and very scared if sp further go down... Is there any chance of improvement.....
> Any suggestion and advice will be appreciated.
> Thanks in advance




I don't have shares in this stock but I wouldn't buy it any how at any price......not a fundamental strong company to buy.....buy stocks like this you cant sleep at night 

it failed on so many level..just a quick pointers

Lot of debt
they all over the place, most profitable business got pick up by fire sale buyer, return on capital is a shocker even in good year and in a bad year capital return at bankruptcy rate.

Work out why you even thinking of buying this stock and put steps in never repeat the same mistakes.

I'm not good at predicting where share price are heading ..All I do I dont get involve with these company.

Good luck hope for some reason the stock gone back up and you make a bit of a profit.


----------



## skc (8 December 2009)

Albi said:


> You all guys are intelligent enough to save your money. I bought ELD at .235 and still holding. I coulnot sell due to my work engagements. Now loss is so much.....I even couldnot think but afraid of and very scared if sp further go down... Is there any chance of improvement.....
> Any suggestion and advice will be appreciated.
> Thanks in advance




I did a fair bit of reading before the SPP and the only conclusion I could draw was that there were too much uncertainties in the turnaround story, and as such I would be in and out through the SPP as quickly as possible (as opposed to hanging onto some other recapitalisations like AIO and VBA).

ELD is nothing more than a wholesaler/distributor of rural supplies and financial products these days. Like ROE said, their trading record was marginal at the best boom times and downright ugly in even just normal periods. The turnaround story rely on increasing demand and recovery of prices on things like fertiliser, which are commodities and by definition ELD cannot be a price maker. So the recovery story is in fact not really in the management's control. 

I will only be interested in buying on confirmation that they have turned it around. As a holder however, it really depends on your pain tolerance, your outlook on some of the key product prices and your faith on management to decide whether you will hold on until the next trading update.

I don't understand why you can't sell due to work engagements... but I would suggest never buy a stock that you can't sell at a time of your choosing (unless you are a company director or something).


----------



## ricee007 (8 December 2009)

Hmm, if you work 8.30-5, it may be hardER to sell due to work commitments...

I'm slightly more optimistic than you guys. It's been trodden down hard. The concensus opinion is that the write-downs were over the top and done to just get them all out of the way... at 15c is a great buy *IF* the company hits its forecasts for this FY and the next. If that occurs, then it really is a great buy at these prices.

I personally can't see it below 14c for any decent length of time, but, it may hover around 14-17.5c for months.

Albi, I can't give you financial advice... but, *IF* I was a person with a long investment horizon, who wasn't risk averse, I wouldn't mind some ELD making up a small part of my portfolio. As it is, I wouldn't mind ELDPA making up a small part of my portfolio atm!

ROE, as far as I was aware.. ELD didn't have an awful lot of debt, and had net assets well above (> twice?) it's market capitalization... even at very much written down prices???

In theory, stocks should tend towards their book values...

"not a fundamental strong company to buy" is accurate... but, that doesn't preclude these from being underpriced/undervalued / providing a positive return to investors. I mean, Buffet probably wouldn't invest in ELD.... but, some people will and some people will almost certainly make some money from ELD.

"the only conclusion I could draw was that there were too much uncertainties in the turnaround story, "
Which is why the forecasts are so hard to believe

"your faith on management"
HAHAHA! I have slightly more faith in ELD management than I had in BBI management.

*Now, back to me.... any thoughts on ELDPA?*


----------



## ricee007 (8 December 2009)

Howdi Guys,

I wrote http://ozbankers.com/index.php?option=com_content&task=view&id=30&Itemid=29 which may be of interest to some members as I spent a bit of time discussing ELDPA...

They are certainly an equity worth considering for those that don't mind a bit of risk.


----------



## WiseMum (21 December 2009)

Is anyone watching what's going on with Elders this morning (new code is ELDDA)?  Curious to know if there were any opinions on the effect of the reconstruction.  I haven't owned shares in a company who've been through this process before. The opening match price currently looks bananas!


----------



## WiseMum (21 December 2009)

OK.  Now that we've started trading I can see what's happened.  Still interested though in what people think the impact of the restructure will be on the share price.  Could it spark a recovery?  What's been the SP effect  on other companies who've been through this process?  (It certainly appears from the volume that the day traders have run away)


----------



## oldblue (21 December 2009)

I doubt that the capital restructure of itself will spark any particular action.

After all, everyone has had plenty of time to absorb the fact that new capital was to be raised and that a lot more shares will be on issue. The capital raising was assured in that the greater part of it was underwritten so no surprises there.

It will probably need some news from the company as to current trading to get some SP action.

Disc: Not holding but interested if the SP starts to trend upwards.


----------



## Albi (23 December 2009)

Hiiiiiiiiiiiiiiii, what's going on? I come back after a long stay in hospital and found my protfolios showing nill in ELD. Can anyone explain hta is going on? I cant sit on net long.Holding ELD . Kindly please..
Thanks


----------



## skc (23 December 2009)

Albi said:


> Hiiiiiiiiiiiiiiii, what's going on? I come back after a long stay in hospital and found my protfolios showing nill in ELD. Can anyone explain hta is going on? I cant sit on net long.Holding ELD . Kindly please..
> Thanks




They did a 10-for-1 consolidation on their shares. So they are now trading at ~$1.5 under the code ELDDA.

So you have neither made a 10 bagger or lost all of your holding. Pretty boring really 

Hope all is well re hospital stay.


----------



## Onandel (24 December 2009)

sorry Folks, this may sound like a dumb question but.....I am holding some Elders shares but see now that they are trading as ELDDA. To sell my portfolio using commsec is it the usual process? (My ELD stocks showing nil value)

Many thanks


----------



## oilman (29 December 2009)

I hold ELD using Etrade and can't trade ELD now as the code does not exist. However, as I understand from the recent share consolidation announcement ELD will be traded again on 7 Jan.


----------



## Anthony Hosemans (29 December 2009)

You can trade on a deferred delivery basis but first settlements on the consolidated stock will not be until the second week of January Regards, Tony


----------



## Albi (3 February 2010)

Hi Guys
Is there any hope  that SP will rise. Everyday it is going down and down. In morning it was showing sopme positive signs but at noon down. I am 55% in loss. Trying to comeout but loss is so much and I am afraid after losing 55% of my capital again I might not trap in another stock. I believe this company is not going to be like CNP or BBI.


----------



## skc (3 February 2010)

Albi said:


> Hi Guys
> Is there any hope  that SP will rise. Everyday it is going down and down. In morning it was showing sopme positive signs but at noon down. I am 55% in loss. Trying to comeout but loss is so much and I am afraid after losing 55% of my capital again I might not trap in another stock. I believe this company is not going to be like CNP or BBI.




Albi - sorry to hear about your situation. If you are looking for comfort here on the forum then you are kidding yourself. What good or bad does it do if someone on this forum tells you that ELD will be going up or down?

There is only one thing you should do. Forget about you have ELD shares, and forget about how much you paid for them. Look at ELD from an impartial point of view and arrive at a value you think they are worth, compare that to the current share price, and then make your decision then to hold or sell.


----------



## ricee007 (3 February 2010)

If I had the cash, I'd probably buy ELDPA.

Having said that, the current SP is historiaclly low, with plenty of upside.
Having said that, the company is still risky.

Have you considered ELDPA?


----------



## Tommy T (8 February 2010)

Anyone got any idea why the ass is dropping out of elders shares? Trying to make sense of this crazy game!!


----------



## Pivotonian (8 February 2010)

Tommy T said:


> Anyone got any idea why the ass is dropping out of elders shares? Trying to make sense of this crazy game!!




Because I hold them.  You should need no more reason than that. 

Should've sold a couple of weeks ago when they were at $1.60.


----------



## WiseMum (9 February 2010)

I certainly can't make any sense of it ... seems purely emotive down at these levels.  I finally got out at 1.365 taking a significant 7 digit hit (ouch) but it's travelling such unchartered territory that I couldn't continue to take the risk.  I understand that their results are out on 16 Feb (but not sure) so i'm thinking that this might give some direction.  They have all the makings of a great turnaround story but I won't buy back in until I see a new bottom form.


----------



## WiseMum (9 February 2010)

Sorry - that post should read 5 digit hit (painful enough!).  And i think that their reporting date is actually 15 Feb ... can anyone out there confirm that?


----------



## Albi (9 February 2010)

I also got out after a great loss. Hope to cover it in other. It is just going down and down. I will neve get in property shares in future as all are struggling.


----------



## skyQuake (9 February 2010)

Looks like bot might be in for ELD lol.
Bit of a buying program there, but will need to close above $1.32 for it to be significant.


----------



## ROE (9 February 2010)

Tommy T said:


> Anyone got any idea why the ass is dropping out of elders shares? Trying to make sense of this crazy game!!





Stock market do what it suppose to do for many generations now.
Take Benjamin Graham word to heart.

"Short Term stock market is a voting machine, Long Term it's a weighting machine"

what's Uncle Ben telling you is stocks can go on a wild swing up and down in short term due to speculation and human emotion but long term stock price will reflect its true earning power
and balance sheet.

so you buying a weak company like ELD with highly leverage balance sheet and not much earning power hoping for a quick bucks, you know where it will end in the long run right?

short term it may deliver a quick paper profit but hold it for 5-10 years it can be an expensive peice of paper.


----------



## ricee007 (9 February 2010)

ROE:

With a book value of, quite likely, over TWICE as much as market-cap...

With, seemingly solid management, and having seemingly completed asset writedowns... ELD / ELDPA is very tempting for me.

Not to short-term trade it (though, a jump up to $1.55 isn't off the cards)... but, to make a long-term profit from it...

It could quite easily double within, say, 2 years... I'm not saying it will; just it could.


----------



## ROE (9 February 2010)

ricee007 said:


> ROE:
> 
> With a book value of, quite likely, over TWICE as much as market-cap...
> 
> ...




I have no idea but it's not for me to judge different people like different stocks for various reasons .. my various reasons I dont like ELD and no
I dont have ELD or plan to buy or short them 

and book value or NTA or whatever they call them again for various reasons, I don't consider them to be a good judge of a company fundamental for holder who don't control significant amount of shares

and I attempt to explain my reasons.

1. Does book value provide you with any earning power?

2. NTA is no good unless you liquidate the company or in some way has
    enough control to influence the board to do something with those   assets, sell it, spin into another company or whatever and you get capital return from those asset sale.

3. if the company is winded up and company have lot of debt it is extremely  unlikely you see any of those NTA value return to you ..

4. Who truly understand those NTA number? it could worth a lot less than
what it is written on those paper. Lot of techniques to get to those NTA number, a clever accountant can think of something

A software company for instance can book millions in software as an asset but does it worth anything to anyone if the company was to call in the administrators

you can look at dog of the asx TLS and see how much they book money spend on software as an asset 

If it is my world I book them as a liability because you have to keep on upgrade the damn thing to keep the business going.. 

as a small share holders, any of those NTA reasons provide any benefit to you... I rather focus on the business model, viability of the business and kick ass balance sheet

my 2 cents


----------



## skyQuake (22 February 2010)

Test of the prev swing lows, hit its head on resistance but doing fine so far. Lets see how it reacts.


----------



## Scrud (18 March 2010)

Some big buying today, in comparison too the last few weeks with some 7mil + shares traded and up 9% someone know something i dont?


----------



## skyQuake (19 March 2010)

Scrud said:


> Some big buying today, in comparison too the last few weeks with some 7mil + shares traded and up 9% someone know something i dont?




One of the med brokerage houses released some research on it. And then a flood of buy orders came in


----------



## Pierian (18 June 2010)

I'm not at all happy about what has happened to this one.

Anyone optimistic about the future or have any other encouraging news about this?


----------



## IrishDigger (19 June 2010)

Pierian said:


> I'm not at all happy about what has happened to this one.
> 
> Anyone optimistic about the future or have any other encouraging news about this?




The following news report gives some background information but I guess in the end all will be revealed on Tuesday.

heraldsun.com.au/business/investors-wait-for-tuesdays-news/story-e6frfh4f-1225881568191?from=public_rss

P/S - I am unable to post the direct link because to do that my post count must be 5 or greater.


----------



## drsmith (22 June 2010)

The directors still seem to be playing catchup in relation to what is going on within the businesses they allegedly run. 

One would have thought that after a life saving capital raising, their senses would have been sharpened somewhat.

I have not had shares in this for several years, but did in it's brighter days as Futuris. I also held shares in the original Elders when it was floated in the early 90's.


----------



## nulla nulla (22 June 2010)

Bear in mind that this company recently did a consolidation (after the $550million capital raising) of 1 for 10, the closing price of $0.44 equates to 4.4c per share prior to the consolidation. 
At $0.44c per share and an alleged net tangible assets backing per share of $1.61, you would have to wonder if this company is ripe for a take over. That is, of course, if anyone would want to take it over? 
With 448million shares on issue todays turnover of 94 million shares represents 21.6% of the shares on issue. No doubt some of it was day traders but not all of it, surely?
When the news hits the papers and the television overnight, where will the price be tomorrow?


----------



## IrishDigger (24 June 2010)

nulla nulla said:


> you would have to wonder if this company is ripe for a take over. That is, of course, if anyone would want to take it over?




Elders claim to be The Bunnings of The Bush, perhaps Bunnings might be interested in a 'take over'?:dunno:


----------



## Sean K (27 June 2010)

Looks like pretty solid capitulation the past few days. Down 80% or so on the year SkyBusiness told me this morning, but looks worse than that. The CEO doesn't really impress, and I'm not sure if I believe what he says. Possible class action for poor disclosure mustn't sit well with investors. Chart looks decidedly dodgy, to say the least. Must be skewed by that consolidation, or is it? This could go into receivership, or it's an awesome buying opportunity. Now, which one?


----------



## outback (27 June 2010)

Mate, I vote for receivership. 

I'm glad I steered clear of this one, if it all comes good, then bravo to those who rode it through.


----------



## WiseMum (27 June 2010)

Does anyone know the criteria for accessing the class action?  I'm wondering if you have to be a current shareholder or whether recent shareholders are eligible?  Also curious about sentiment out there with current holders.  Presumably any successful action will be negative for the SP so taking action must be a last resort... perhaps people feel their holdings have been so diluted that it's worth more to them to pursue compensation rather than wait for the SP to recover???


----------



## drsmith (27 June 2010)

kennas said:


> This could go into receivership, or it's an awesome buying opportunity. Now, which one?



At best I susepct the directors opinions are that they don't know.

Speculative buy below 10 cents ?

?????????


----------



## Wysiwyg (27 June 2010)

ROE said:


> Stock market do what it suppose to do for many generations now.
> Take Benjamin Graham word to heart.
> 
> "Short Term stock market is a voting machine, Long Term it's a weighting machine"
> ...




Another top quality post on "why" from ROE. Thank you kindly for your wise words and comments are always most welcome.


----------



## skc (28 June 2010)

ricee007 said:


> ROE:
> 
> With a book value of, quite likely, over TWICE as much as market-cap...
> 
> ...




The right way to play this was probably long the ELDPA and short the main stock - same as the hedge fund play on FXJ (which is the most shorted stock on the ASX for that reason).



kennas said:


> Looks like pretty solid capitulation the past few days. Down 80% or so on the year SkyBusiness told me this morning, but looks worse than that. The CEO doesn't really impress, and I'm not sure if I believe what he says. Possible class action for poor disclosure mustn't sit well with investors. Chart looks decidedly dodgy, to say the least. Must be skewed by that consolidation, or is it? This could go into receivership, or it's an awesome buying opportunity. Now, which one?




To me one of the biggest problem is that ELD was making crazy forecasts during the SPP - like projecting strong sale of MIS products (timber stuff) even when Timbercorp (and others) were going into administration.

It would be interesting to see if their P/L by division, and whether the core distribution operations actually is profitable. If that is the case someone might come in and mop them up.... The big gap up last year was due to takeover rumours - but I wouldn't hold my breath even if a takeover was announced. Many crap companies review offers that didn't go through - NUF and possibly SIP now.


----------



## ricee007 (28 June 2010)

> what's Uncle Ben telling you is stocks can go on a wild swing up and down in short term due to speculation and human emotion but long term stock price will reflect its true earning power and balance sheet.
> 
> so you buying a weak company like ELD with highly leverage balance sheet and not much earning power hoping for a quick bucks, you know where it will end in the long run right?



This provides interesting insight.

However, it does miss the fact that if the ELD SP reflected it's balance sheet... ELD would be a multi-bagger and ELDPA would be worth $100.

It is VERY hard for investors to actually know how much ELD assets are...... and, I had thought they were all written down fully.

Perhaps, perhaps, the assets are written down pretty much fully...... but, income is a lot lower than expected, which may mean that assets will need to be sold.......... at BELOW writtendwon price (IE: firesale?)?


----------



## w534220 (29 June 2010)

why wouldn't everyone buy ELDPA?  there are 4 possible scenarios:

1. elders start paying hybrid dividends again as planned in a year's time. The coupon margin steps up by 250bp to be 470bp over the higher of 3mo BBSW or 10yr swap. so a total coupon of approximately $10.42 or running yield on current $40 unit price of 26% !!

2. elders is taken over by private equity or trade buyer. they must be looking at it given it's massive discount to sum-of-parts valuation. If ELD taken over the hybrids get par plus half the takeover equity price premium. ie. ELDPA owners would triple their money from here.

3.  they redeem the hybrids 30 Jun 11.  hybrid owners 2.5x their money from here

4. they continue to not pay hybrid divs and hybrids are effectively zero coupon perpetual. Well in this case because of the equity div stopper the common equity is even more a zero coupon perpetual and therefore nearly valueless and 2. is much more likely.


----------



## skc (29 June 2010)

w534220 said:


> why wouldn't everyone buy ELDPA?  there are 4 possible scenarios:
> 
> 1. elders start paying hybrid dividends again as planned in a year's time. The coupon margin steps up by 250bp to be 470bp over the higher of 3mo BBSW or 10yr swap. so a total coupon of approximately $10.42 or running yield on current $40 unit price of 26% !!
> 
> ...




Isn't there at least 2 more scenarios?

5. ELD goes belly up. After administrators looked at it for 3 years they declare that hybrid holders get nothing or some scraps...

6. ELD goes for a another massive re-capitalisation involving the hybrid notes as well. Holders get 40% of face value which is close to the price now. Hybrid holders get to vote on either re-capping the company or have it wind up... similar to BBI last year.


----------



## w534220 (29 June 2010)

skc said:


> Isn't there at least 2 more scenarios?
> 
> 5. ELD goes belly up. After administrators looked at it for 3 years they declare that hybrid holders get nothing or some scraps...
> 
> 6. ELD goes for a another massive re-capitalisation involving the hybrid notes as well. Holders get 40% of face value which is close to the price now. Hybrid holders get to vote on either re-capping the company or have it wind up... similar to BBI last year.




well given they have already done a $550mil recap which de-risked the company and also given that they are close to break-even operating earnings in current environment on turnover of $2bn+ per annum and they recognise they simply have to expand their margin a little to improve profitability. barring some out of the blue disaster i can't see how they are going to go bust.

for the same reasons i don't see why they would have to do another recap. what do they need the money for?  

their key challenge is simply to do better than break-even by expanding margins whilst maintaining market share.


----------



## ricee007 (29 June 2010)

w534.. and how has that worked for them so far this year?

You have to understand that there is a REALISTIC chance that ELDPA holders won't see $100.


I mean, sure, they might one day.... but, you seem to place a much less chance of that happening than me, skc and the market..........


----------



## w534220 (30 June 2010)

ricee007 said:


> w534.. and how has that worked for them so far this year?
> 
> You have to understand that there is a REALISTIC chance that ELDPA holders won't see $100.
> 
> ...




explain to me under what circumstances the ELDPA will not see $100?

The only scenario under which you will not see $100 is if the firm goes into liquidation and the total assets of $2221million are worth less than total liabilities of $1150million. (i have included receivables and current assets and liabilities).  

but why would it go into liquidation when it is breaking even and has gearing of only 35%?


----------



## ricee007 (30 June 2010)

w534220 said:


> explain to me under what circumstances the ELDPA will not see $100?
> 
> The only scenario under which you will not see $100 is if the firm goes into liquidation and the total assets of $2221million are worth less than total liabilities of $1150million. (i have included receivables and current assets and liabilities).
> 
> but why would it go into liquidation when it is breaking even and has gearing of only 35%?



Oh, sorry, I thought that they just recently downgraded forecasts, for the umpteenth time?

Aren't they going to, probably, take on more writedowns, despite already doing a massive chunk of them?

If those two things keep happening... then the fact that they say they jmay breakeven is kinda irrelevant !!!

Besides, no, that's not the only circumstance that ELDPA won't see $100. I suggest you educate yourself on BEPPA/BBI. It was just over 43% for BEPPA holders... I only made a 35% profit on those .


----------



## w534220 (30 June 2010)

ricee007 said:


> Oh, sorry, I thought that they just recently downgraded forecasts, for the umpteenth time?
> 
> Aren't they going to, probably, take on more writedowns, despite already doing a massive chunk of them?
> 
> ...




well i bought the beppas at under 10c so i know all about that. But Elders is different. BBI was trying to refinance debt secured against equity holdings in highly geared assets. it was beholden to the banks who wanted them to raise equity and Hamill/Kendrew had done a deal with BAM whereby they would keep their jobs if they helped BAM take it over on the cheap.   

Elders on the other hand has already done  the equity raising the banks required and has no equity market capitalisation linked debt covenants. so it is not beholden to the banks, does not need to raise capital and therefore does not need to agree to any takeover deals that involve those senior to common equity taking a haircut.


----------



## w534220 (30 June 2010)

w534220 said:


> well i bought the beppas at under 10c so i know all about that. But Elders is different. BBI was trying to refinance debt secured against equity holdings in highly geared assets. it was beholden to the banks who wanted them to raise equity and Hamill/Kendrew had done a deal with BAM whereby they would keep their jobs if they helped BAM take it over on the cheap.
> 
> Elders on the other hand has already done  the equity raising the banks required and has no equity market capitalisation linked debt covenants. so it is not beholden to the banks, does not need to raise capital and therefore does not need to agree to any takeover deals that involve those senior to common equity taking a haircut.




another big difference between BEPPA and ELDPA is that the BEPPA outstanding was huge(approx $800mil) relative to the equity . whereas ELDPA is only $150mil.    also the BEPPA were cumulative causing BBI to be getting deeper underwater, whereas ELDPA are currently free finance for ELD.    but that is all irrelevant given that ELD is not in a position where they need to raise equity.


----------



## Pierian (30 June 2010)

WiseMum said:


> Also curious about sentiment out there with current holders.... perhaps people feel their holdings have been so diluted that it's worth more to them to pursue compensation rather than wait for the SP to recover???




It's devastating.

Perhaps all current shareholders should consider registering for further info regarding the class action with Slater and Gordon Lawyers - 1800 555 777


----------



## freddy2 (30 June 2010)

w534220 said:


> explain to me under what circumstances the ELDPA will not see $100?
> 
> The only scenario under which you will not see $100 is if the firm goes into liquidation and the total assets of $2221million are worth less than total liabilities of $1150million. (i have included receivables and current assets and liabilities).
> 
> but why would it go into liquidation when it is breaking even and has gearing of only 35%?




What happens if the board decides never to pay a dividend to the equity holders and ELDPA holders. Instead future profits/cash flows could be used to pay back debt or re-invested. They could do this as ELDPA are non-cumulative and have no set redemption date.


----------



## oldblue (30 June 2010)

Hi W534.

I've been thinking about your posts ELDPA v ELD and tend to agree, although I'm not sure I'd be buying either at present.

I see the biggest point against ELDPA though as its relative lack of liquidity. If things get really/even more nasty for Elders at least the ords are likely to continue to give a way out, albeit at a price. Not so certain with ELDPA, I would think?


----------



## w534220 (30 June 2010)

freddy2 said:


> What happens if the board decides never to pay a dividend to the equity holders and ELDPA holders. Instead future profits/cash flows could be used to pay back debt or re-invested. They could do this as ELDPA are non-cumulative and have no set redemption date.




because of the equity div stopper the equity would be more of a zero coupon perpetual than the hybrid. if the equity market discounted this(which it may well already be doing) it would be (is) a prime takeover candidate and in the case of a takeover the hybrid holders get par plus 50% of the takeover premium. ie. could well be 3x current hybrid price. 

more practically, it looks bad to not be paying hybrid divs and removes their flexibility on equity divs. so i believe they either start paying the hybrid divs as planned in a year's time(will be approx 26% running yield on current price) or they convert the hybrids, which will be dilutive for equity but increases management flexibility re equity divs.

Malcolm Jackman said during conf call that they are having a meeting in July to discuss , amongst other things, cap structure and what they do with they hybrids.


----------



## craigj (30 June 2010)

is elders the worst performing stock for the finnancial year? or perhaps the biggest loser of equity during the year?


----------



## alphaman (30 June 2010)

w534220 said:


> in the case of a takeover the hybrid holders get par plus 50% of the takeover premium. ie. could well be 3x current hybrid price.



They may get par, or may have to accept a discount. Who knows.

By the way why do hybrid holders get 50% of the takeover premium? Is that a specific condition of ELD's hybrid paper?


----------



## ricee007 (30 June 2010)

w534220.

Understand that the market is pricing ELDPA where they are because of risk of never seeing $100 again.

ELDPA are one stock that I'd consider buying, hell, I nearly did buy (I got STO instead, ELDPA was probably my 3rd choice at the time, though).

However, you *ARE* downplaying the risk, compared to what the market thinks.

You say ELD don't need capital? What if the economy keeps going like it is? Will they need cash flow?

Realistically, there's no reason why ELD has to pay dividends before 2013. 3 years away. In fact, one may argue that, from this position, that looks most prudent. They have too much debt for their cash flow... why would they give some of their cash to s/holders!?

ELDPA may give the nice $110 or so in 18 months time. Who knows? However, understand how little risk you are implying, compared to the market.

Read the latest announcment.... the SP dropped 40% for a reason.

"Is that a specific condition of ELD's hybrid paper? "
Yes.... quite an unusual clause, but, a certainly 'sensible' one...


----------



## nulla nulla (1 July 2010)

craigj said:


> is elders the worst performing stock for the finnancial year? or perhaps the biggest loser of equity during the year?




Wouldn't the award for biggest loser of equity during the year go to BBI or BBP? BBI, now renamed PIH, gave up 99% of equity in the company to a new cornerstone investor to stave of the banks. Fortunately the entrenched management were able to keep teir jobs (and probably their bobues).


----------



## w534220 (1 July 2010)

ricee007 said:


> w534220.
> 
> Understand that the market is pricing ELDPA where they are because of risk of never seeing $100 again.
> 
> ...




if you always assume the risk the market is implying is correct then you may as well invest in index tracking fund.

hybrid holders have contractual rights. hybrid holders are senior to commone equity. they cannot take a haircut unless the company goes into liquidation or the hybrid holders agree to it.


----------



## w534220 (1 July 2010)

alphaman said:


> They may get par, or may have to accept a discount. Who knows.
> 
> By the way why do hybrid holders get 50% of the takeover premium? Is that a specific condition of ELD's hybrid paper?




yes. everyone should study http://investor.elders.com.au/assets/documents/hybrid_PDF_2.pdf

specifically regarding a takeover on page 39.

7.2 Adjustments for takeover or scheme of arrangement
If a Hybrid is Converted pursuant to:
(a) an Issuer Realisation Notice given in respect of an Acquisition Event; or
(b) a Holder Request given in respect of a Trigger Event under clause 5.1(b) or clause 5.1(c),
(each a Relevant Event), then the denominator in the formula in clause 7.1 for the Hybrid is equal to the lesser of:
(i) 97.5% of the offer price under the takeover bid or the consideration under the scheme of arrangement the
subject of the Relevant Event; and
(ii) the VWAP (expressed as a dollar value) calculated in respect of the period of 20 Business Days on which
trading in Ordinary Shares took place immediately preceding (but excluding) the announcement of the
takeover bid or the scheme of arrangement the subject of the Relevant Event, plus 50% of the amount
calculated by subtracting that VWAP from the offer price under the takeover bid or the consideration under
the scheme of arrangement the subject of the Relevant Event.
In the case of non-cash consideration, the calculations under this clause 7.2 will be performed using the value of the offer
price or the consideration as reasonably determined by the Issuer. The Issuer may rely on the advice of an investment
bank, accounting firm or other professional financial adviser in this regard.


----------



## lianeisme (6 July 2010)

If you wish to register for the class action against Elders here are the details
Shareholders can contact Slater & Gordon on 1800 555 777 or by email at
newclientservices@slatergordon.com.au


----------



## w534220 (12 July 2010)

why, when the ELD's are up 52% from their lows are the ELDPA's (which are senior to common equity) not bouncing at all?  ELDPA's remain a bargain.


----------



## nulla nulla (12 July 2010)

w534220 said:


> why, when the ELD's are up 52% from their lows are the ELDPA's (which are senior to common equity) not bouncing at all?  ELDPA's remain a bargain.




Or eld is now overpriced on euphamistic optimism? Big run up today from a low of $0.43. to a high of $0.515. Is someone buying up a stake?


----------



## laurie (12 July 2010)

Or someone is anticipating a Take Over why would QBE have a 10% stake maybe to block such a move of a t/o!!

laurie


----------



## IrishDigger (15 July 2010)

nulla nulla said:


> Or eld is now overpriced on euphamistic optimism? Big run up today from a low of $0.43. to a high of $0.515. Is someone buying up a stake?




A check with Online CommSec shows more buyers than sellers, interesting to 'Watch' as someone knows something.


----------



## nulla nulla (15 July 2010)

IrishDigger said:


> A check with Online CommSec shows more buyers than sellers, interesting to 'Watch' as someone knows something.




The share appeared to struggle yesterday after good run ups earlier in the week. Volumes also dropped off. This contrast with the general recovery of other shares where the xao made a gain for the day of 77 points. 
Interestingly the macd indicated the share is gapping above the moving average.


----------



## GumbyLearner (15 July 2010)

GumbyLearner said:


> They sold their two most profitable interests last financial year. Their entire  stake in AAC and another chunk of Elders Bank to BEN. Look elsewhere IMHO!
> 
> DYOR




I stand by this.

The glossy write up ELD had in the Fin Review May 2009 pages 52-53.

Total smokescreen.

And Malcolm Jackman quotes:

Fin Review: "Why should investors buy Futuris rather than other agricultural stocks when the share price is hovering around 18 year lows?

Jackman: I think it's because of the Elders brand. It's been around for about 170 years and is the oldest in Australia. Every so often severe drought has whipped it to within an inch of it's life, but it will continue and survive and prosper. 

Jackman: Agribusiness in Australia is a world-class enterprise. People wanting to invest in the country look for it's competitive advantages, and agribusiness is one of those. The thing that makes us unique is our connection with farmers across the country.

Jackman: We are on track with our agenda of change, and the company is in better shape than it was six months ago, despite share price lows."

*Bulldust!*


----------



## nulla nulla (15 July 2010)

GumbyLearner said:


> I stand by this.
> 
> The glossy write up ELD had in the Fin Review May 2009 pages 52-53.
> 
> ...




Todays price action would tend to support your perspective. It also appears to have lost support with further declines in volume and a drop off in share price today. Last one out, please turn off the lights.


----------



## laurie (7 August 2010)

Thanks to the Russian Prime Minister Vladimir Putin signing an order banning grain and flour exports from August 15 to December 31. So watch wheat prices hit the roof this should be positive news for ELD 

laurie


----------



## Tommy T (19 October 2010)

ELD heading north today, interesting - perhaps bacuase of some spin from MJ?


----------



## IrishDigger (26 October 2010)

It's like the rest of the stock market, one day it's going north and the following day it's going south.


----------



## Tekwrek (23 November 2010)

Any Idea why ELD sp surged today despite the market falling.
I cannot find any anouncements.


----------



## oldblue (24 November 2010)

Tekwrek said:


> Any Idea why ELD sp surged today despite the market falling.
> I cannot find any anouncements.




ELD is a trader's stock these days - both short and long -  and the SP often fluctuates over a relatively wide range, day to day.

I suspect that yesterday's movement was related to short covering. The previous day's turnover in ELD was around 21% shorts.


----------



## pigeondog (10 December 2010)

ELD up more than 6% today on no news. Could just be trading/noise. 

I really wish these guys would ditch their MIS delusions and get on with the agriculture side of the business.


----------



## nulla nulla (10 December 2010)

pigeondog said:


> ELD up more than 6% today on no news. Could just be trading/noise.
> 
> I really wish these guys would ditch their MIS delusions and get on with the agriculture side of the business.




The ASIC shows a lot of "open" short trades on  ELD. What with the rain, flooding and crop damage at present I would not be expecting the shorters to be in any hurry to close out just yet. Any rise atm is likely to be "short" lived imo.  pun intended.


----------



## shinobi346 (11 January 2011)

pigeondog said:


> ELD up more than 6% today on no news. Could just be trading/noise.
> 
> I really wish these guys would ditch their MIS delusions and get on with the agriculture side of the business.




The price increase was due to BEN buying the rest of Elders banking division on that day. It would have pushed ELD's cash position up nicely. I hope the banking part doesnt have an insurance arm with all the rain we're getting. >_>


----------



## Tekwrek (4 February 2011)

Elders up 12.5% anyone got any news?


----------



## Tekwrek (4 February 2011)

Tekwrek said:


> Elders up 12.5% anyone got any news?




Rose to 25.7% today before settling at 13.7%.


----------



## laurie (5 February 2011)

ELD is now a pump & dump target holding for those that are able to pick the ups and downs 

laurie


----------



## Tekwrek (7 February 2011)

laurie said:


> ELD is now a pump & dump target holding for those that are able to pick the ups and downs
> 
> laurie




Seems that you are 100% correct.
How do you know these things?


----------



## Tekwrek (8 February 2011)

laurie said:


> ELD is now a pump & dump target holding for those that are able to pick the ups and downs
> 
> laurie




It seems to be PUMPING again today up 7% on early trade.


----------



## laurie (8 February 2011)

Got on in high 30's so this is a long term for me it seems a take over talk often pops up taking the share price high until the ASX issues a speeding ticket then back down lets see how high this goes to form a new base line price 

laurie


----------



## Tekwrek (9 February 2011)

laurie said:


> Got on in high 30's so this is a long term for me it seems a take over talk often pops up taking the share price high until the ASX issues a speeding ticket then back down lets see how high this goes to form a new base line price
> 
> laurie




It closed 10% higher yesterday, do you think I should jump in or let it come down again?


----------



## prawn_86 (9 February 2011)

Tekwrek said:


> It closed 10% higher yesterday, do you think I should jump in or let it come down again?




Tek,

Please note that ASF members are not legally allowed to give financial advice. The decision to buy or sell is yours, if you need guidance i suggest you contact a licensed financial advisor.

Members can post their thoughts, but cannot say "buy" etc


----------



## Tekwrek (9 February 2011)

prawn_86 said:


> Tek,
> 
> Please note that ASF members are not legally allowed to give financial advice. The decision to buy or sell is yours, if you need guidance i suggest you contact a licensed financial advisor.
> 
> Members can post their thoughts, but cannot say "buy" etc



Thnx Prawn, it is up another 4% I am jumping in.


----------



## laurie (9 February 2011)

Perfect day for day traders high .655 (sold) low .610 (buy) needs positive announcements not just rumors to push over the sp to above .70c  

laurie


----------



## Tekwrek (10 February 2011)

laurie said:


> Perfect day for day traders high .655 (sold) low .610 (buy) needs positive announcements not just rumors to push over the sp to above .70c
> 
> laurie




Thnx Laurie i owe you a beer, I did very good on a day trade.
But I left some in , might jump back in at about 68c.


----------



## tryin hard (14 February 2011)

Elders has recorded some big losses. I wonder if they can start to pay a dividend by the middle - end of next year (2012).
Thinking about the current impact the weather has had on agriculture on the eastern side of oz and the dry climate in some of the west. I am doubting they will make a dividend in the next few years. I am holding on hoping they will come good.
I have not done much research into there insurance but I am sure that some farmers will be leaning on them in this time of need.

Tryin hard


----------



## laurie (15 February 2011)

Don't expect a dividend if the company has debt,that has to be paid off and then sell off assets that are not preforming well and cut costs then we may see positive revenues to be able to pay a dividend

laurie


----------



## Tekwrek (7 April 2011)

laurie said:


> Perfect day for day traders high .655 (sold) low .610 (buy) needs positive announcements not just rumors to push over the sp to above .70c
> 
> laurie




Hey Laurie, seems to be pumping again up 6% in early trading.


----------



## Tekwrek (8 April 2011)

Tekwrek said:


> Hey Laurie, seems to be pumping again up 6% in early trading.




And another 8% at opening this morning, looks like the pumping has started.


----------



## IrishDigger (28 September 2011)

laurie said:


> Don't expect a dividend if the company has debt,that has to be paid off and then sell off assets that are not preforming well and cut costs then we may see positive revenues to be able to pay a dividend
> 
> laurie




Still no sign of a dividend.

The following is an interesting read,

Click Here To Read Report

I hold a few thousand ELD; no practical financial $ense to it but more for sentimental reasons because of my rural background.

Interesting to follow and I wonder what the future holds for ELD.

Regarding the word 'future' -- I recall reading that Elders intended to sell Futuris but have seen no reports since.


----------



## IrishDigger (20 December 2011)

Further...........

Click Here For News Report

Still holding and waiting for better times.


----------



## IrishDigger (2 June 2012)

Hello, hello, what's going on here,

Ruralco Buys Stake In Elders


----------



## Spiderbrain (7 June 2012)

IrishDigger said:


> Hello, hello, what's going on here,
> 
> Ruralco Buys Stake In Elders




F*^$ all on here by the looks  

A blocking stake or a potential takeover by Ruralco?  I noticed someone bought a million today and pushed it up another cent to $0.235. A nice profit for the sellers if bought a week ago at $0.19.

I bought a bunch at the equivalent of $2.10 (before the split), held them with my head in the sand, expecting an upward surge to happen just around the next corner until I dimly realised they were worth virtually nothing any more.


----------



## leyy (7 November 2013)

Looks like ELD is getting some price action.

It is nearly at its yearly high with increased volume.

It has broken its down trend.


cheers

leyy


----------



## prawn_86 (18 November 2013)

Can't say i follow this one much but it seems there has been some potential accounting shenanigans going on:

http://www.abc.net.au/news/2013-11-...y-restructure-and-accounting-troubles/5098714


----------



## Mdh (22 May 2014)

The 175 year old company has had a fairly tumultuous history since a high of around $27.00 in 2007. Recent reports look as though the newly appointed CEO is starting to steer the company back in the right direction; closing down on the significant debt and consolidating the business back to it's core roots. Is it time to jump in at around 0.12?


----------



## Huskar (26 June 2014)

Mdh said:


> The 175 year old company has had a fairly tumultuous history since a high of around $27.00 in 2007. Recent reports look as though the newly appointed CEO is starting to steer the company back in the right direction; closing down on the significant debt and consolidating the business back to it's core roots. Is it time to jump in at around 0.12?




Hope you did my friend.. 

Now at 20c


----------



## IrishDigger (26 June 2014)

IrishDigger said:


> Still no sign of a dividend.
> 
> The following is an interesting read,
> 
> ...




The above quote is dated September 28, 2011 - still holding and awaiting better times.:aus:

Cheers.


----------



## IrishDigger (27 June 2014)

Huskar said:


> Hope you did my friend..
> 
> Now at 20c




Now at 21c, Speeding Ticket issued.


----------



## IrishDigger (8 July 2014)

News update,

'Suitors Are Circling'

http://www.theaustralian.com.au/business/elders-admits-suitors-are-circling/story-e6frg8zx-1226981703428?nk=aa5fc386281df3dcffad7efb3d642553

I wonder if RHL might reconsider?


----------



## robusta (28 July 2014)

Thats what they need, an eight point plan.


http://www.asx.com.au/asxpdf/20140728/pdf/42r28pgrl2r7yn.pdf

Everything will be OK now, has to be twice as good as a four point plan right? Maybe a one point plan not to destroy shareholders equity could have worked.


----------



## skc (28 July 2014)

robusta said:


> Thats what they need, an eight point plan.
> 
> 
> http://www.asx.com.au/asxpdf/20140728/pdf/42r28pgrl2r7yn.pdf
> ...




Haha... You know they hired really expensive consultants to decide whether 8-points were too many or too few.

But, you'd be surprised how the market will react to a well-articulated plan, and how the company's staff will react to a well-articulated plan. SGM (sims metal) last week came up with a strategic review which traget 3x increase in EBIT without too much details around how it'd get there, and the shares were bought up strongly.

FWIW, ELD is not a bad turnaround play. They are no longer on death watch. They do need to sort out their hybrid notes as a last step to repairing their balance sheet. It's not really a mega growth potential or anything, but simply getting it run like a above-average business should see it re-rated for some time.


----------



## Huskar (27 January 2015)

ELD really starting to come back into acceptance by institutions. AMP just disclosed a significant shareholding. Share consolidation means SP now looks more palatable with a number before the decimal sign. Agricultural industry coming into popularity. 30% increase since Xmas gives indication of buying pressure. Maybe 6 point plan was all that was missing these years! From talking to a few different groups of farmers it seems there is little doubt that the Elders brand is still strong in agricultural services.


----------



## ReXXar (3 January 2017)

Anyone still following this stock? I bought around $3.8 few months ago and it haven't moved for 3 and half months, appears to have no momentum at all and price wise $3.8 I'm not entirely comfortable with either, market up 1.2% and its down 1% today for no reason..  I bought it mostly as an initial dividend play, and also partly as a blue chip turnaround play.  However dividend is not expected until Dec 2017 and I'm getting impatient with this stock.  Anyone holding Elders??


----------



## ReXXar (3 January 2017)

skc said:


> Haha... You know they hired really expensive consultants to decide whether 8-points were too many or too few.
> 
> But, you'd be surprised how the market will react to a well-articulated plan, and how the company's staff will react to a well-articulated plan. SGM (sims metal) last week came up with a strategic review which traget 3x increase in EBIT without too much details around how it'd get there, and the shares were bought up strongly.
> 
> FWIW, ELD is not a bad turnaround play. They are no longer on death watch. They do need to sort out their hybrid notes as a last step to repairing their balance sheet. It's not really a mega growth potential or anything, but simply getting it run like a above-average business should see it re-rated for some time.




Great foresight skc..


----------



## Boggo (23 May 2017)

Something driving it in the right direction 

Daily chart


----------



## ReXXar (8 July 2017)

Boggo said:


> Something driving it in the right direction
> 
> Daily chart
> View attachment 71246




You own this stock?? I'm still holding on to ELD, seems to be one of those stocks people lost interest in.  Nothing exciting but it should continue to accumulate cash and outperform until 2019 if management keep up what they're doing, although I have no intention to hold it until then.


----------



## Boggo (8 July 2017)

ReXXar said:


> You own this stock?? I'm still holding on to ELD, seems to be one of those stocks people lost interest in.  Nothing exciting but it should continue to accumulate cash and outperform until 2019 if management keep up what they're doing, although I have no intention to hold it until then.




Yes, still holding in the SMSF. Giving it room to move, weekly trailing stop is 4.96 and it held above that at the close on Friday.
I did also hold some in my trading account but they were stopped out on the daily at 5.26 last Monday.

Weekly chart - click to expand


----------



## ReXXar (9 July 2017)

Boggo said:


> Yes, still holding in the SMSF. Giving it room to move, weekly trailing stop is 4.96 and it held above that at the close on Friday.
> I did also hold some in my trading account but they were stopped out on the daily at 5.26 last Monday.
> 
> Weekly chart - click to expand
> View attachment 71761




I'm still waiting on the initial dividend announcement, when that happens I expect it will pop when super fund managers add it to the portfolio, as many institutional funds only invest in large stocks that pay a dividend.

How do you use stop-loss? Do you use Bollinger bands or weekly MA using daily low? Conversely, do you buy when it breaches the weekly top? I still have my stop-loss set around $3.40, I really need to move it up, maybe around $4.70?? (last top reached in 15 Jan 2016)


----------



## Boggo (10 July 2017)

ReXXar said:


> How do you use stop-loss? Do you use Bollinger bands or weekly MA using daily low? Conversely, do you buy when it breaches the weekly top? I still have my stop-loss set around $3.40, I really need to move it up, maybe around $4.70?? (last top reached in 15 Jan 2016)




Apologies for going off the thread topic of ELD to answer.

Stop Loss - two methods, one when I enter the trade, an initial stop and the difference between the initial stop and the entry point determines how much I am willing to risk and in turn how many shares I will buy.
If you look at the chart of AWC below as an example and only look at the most recent "heads up" arrow you will also see a value on the right of 1.842.
That is the low of the third last bar and 1.83 would be a likely initial stop to base my initial entry calculations on.
Once I am in the trade and I go into profit then the trailing stop (ATR with variables) takes over once it passes the level of the initial stop. That is the theory of how it works but trading sideways, news, dividends etc can mean I may intervene along the way and exit.

I have also include a chart of CDA below as an example of the advantage of a wide trailing stop in a weekly system once you get past the initial part.

Buy point - the up arrow on the chart is just a heads up. If you look again at the chart of AWC you will see a heads up arrow in late April 2016 and if you now try to apply an initial stop as I described above the recent low was too far from the entry, one glance at this in a scan result list and I move on to the next result.

Now if you look at the next heads up arrow in mid October the pattern is more stable and you could apply a sensible initial stop that would also secure an acceptable buy volume at your normal $$ risk. (this was how I entered AWC)
The remaining arrows can then be viewed at top up points if you wanted to increase your holding.

Once you are in the trade profitably you then need to be prepared to give it room to move and if you look at the AWC thread (https://www.aussiestockforums.com/threads/awc-alumina-limited.4687/page-3#post-950281) you will see that another method is used to see where the stock behaviour may be without the stop interfering with that pattern, sometimes this takes a bit of nerve when you see your profit reducing from a high - system trading !
This is rough description of the weekly system, daily is similiar in some ways but more discretionary.

Hope that answers your question, now back to ELD from here on.

(click to expand)


----------



## ReXXar (10 July 2017)

Boggo said:


> Apologies for going off the thread topic of ELD to answer.
> 
> Stop Loss - two methods, one when I enter the trade, an initial stop and the difference between the initial stop and the entry point determines how much I am willing to risk and in turn how many shares I will buy.
> If you look at the chart of AWC below as an example and only look at the most recent "heads up" arrow you will also see a value on the right of 1.842.
> ...




Hmm interesting, your system kinda reminds me of Taylor's 3 day cycle.  How do you minimise the transaction cost, do you trade using CFDs??  How's the strategy working out for you? I used to play around with similar trading systems, when backtested it works but when transaction cost is taken into account and the fact that I have to pay extra for guaranteed stop loss I wasn't able to turn a profit consistently, and it was too stressful anyhow, was trying to do this during my day-job and ended badly.  Nowadays I usually just look at the 50 and 200 day MA to support my fundamental analysis.


----------



## Boggo (10 July 2017)

No cfd's, just stocks, or instalment warrants on some of the bigger stocks.
At the moment (and for the last FY) the system is being slowed with some of the stocks that are range bound.
Brokerage is a factor catered for in the system design, slippage is the unknown.


----------



## greggles (12 November 2018)

Elders Limited spiked 19.70% to $8.87 today following the release of its financial results for the 12 months to 30 September 2018.

Here are the highlights:






The financial results weren't outstanding but they definitely met expectations. I suspect today's share price spike was more market relief than anything. Relief that the results weren't worse than they were and a bit of a testament to Elders resilience in the face of challenging circumstances.


----------



## barney (12 November 2018)

greggles said:


> Elders Limited spiked 19.70% to $8.87 today following the release of its financial results for the 12 months to 30 September 2018.




Pretty amazing to think that a few years back Elders were on the seat of their pants with everyone saying it was the end  ….. and now they are back at almost $9 a share ….. I wonder whether AMP will do something similar after they hit rock bottom


----------



## peter2 (28 April 2019)

The ongoing drought and then flooding in QLD has really hit farmers hard. Elders are having a tough time too. Their recent downgrade (Mar 19) saw their price slump lower. 

Since then, price has bounced and my chart shows a reversal setup. I must say that price remains in a strong down trend but there's a small chance that this year long corrective pattern may be ending. 
Please do not say there's a H&S reversal pattern on this chart. I hate that pattern. 
[The other agricultural stock AAC is also breaking higher.]


----------



## Dona Ferentes (27 March 2020)

“As an industry we have already noticed significant business demand changes from coronavirus. 
Demand is high, farmer confidence is high and we have had significant rain”
_
- Mark Allison, CEO, Elders Ltd

_


----------



## Dona Ferentes (27 March 2020)




----------



## InsvestoBoy (30 April 2020)

My pick for the comp this month.

Don't hold, don't know anything about the company fundamentals, just noticed it held up well in the March dump when I was scrolling some charts.


----------



## Dona Ferentes (20 May 2020)

and .....  
- Elders kept its interim dividend payout steady at 9¢ per share as it announced a net profit after tax of $52 million for the six months ended March 31, up from $27.4 million a year ago. 
- Elders expects full-year net profit to be between the broad range of analysts' forecasts of $85.8 million to $102.9 million
- Solid rains on the east coast has lifted confidence among farmers and demand rose for products used on farms.


> CEO Mark Allison said it was important that Australia became more diversified in the end markets it was selling to, but it also needed to have a large exposure to countries such as China where there was growing demand. "We do need to be where the growth populations are,'' he said.
> 
> The company would remain highly disciplined and only pursue acquisitions which added value and were earnings per share accretive, but there would be more to choose from as some players hit hard times because they had too much debt. "We're actively assessing distressed assets and we're actively assessing the economic fallout and the opportunities that will bring,'' he said.



up 40% since lows of 23 March


----------



## Dona Ferentes (16 November 2020)

and still lifting. The news probably priced in, though


_Elders FY20 statutory profit jumped 80 per cent on the prior year to $124.2 million (pre-AASB 16) with higher earnings from its branch network and wholesale business driving the result._
_
Management declare a fully-franked final dividend of 13¢, up from 9¢ last year.

The company generated revenue of $2.092 billion in the year to September 30, up 29 per cent on the prior year. Underlying EBIT swelled 62 per cent year-on-year to $119.4 million.

The acquisition of Australian Independent Rural Retailers was implemented just over one month into FY20, which saw Elder's wholesale segment add $22 million in earnings (EBIT).

"__Our FY20 results highlight the resilience of our business, the benefits of our diversification across both geographies and products, and our acquisition strategy,__" said chief executive Mark Allison.

The company did not provide financial performance guidance for FY21 but did offer commentary on the drivers expected to feature over the year ahead, which included the following:_

_"High levels of demand for farmland is expected to continue while potential farmland sellers are deferring selling decisions due to uncertainty created by COVID-19; this is expected to deliver ongoing strong farmland values in FY21."_
_"Significant growth opportunities exist to gain market share by serving new customers, in new geographies with our multiple product and service portfolios. Elders will remain adaptable as the on-going impacts of COVID-19 continue to minimally disrupt key inputs across the industry."_
_



_


----------



## Dona Ferentes (14 March 2022)

and a 12 month high, up 8% on early trade

_Elders says it expects in underlying EBIT for the 2022 financial year to be 20 to 30 per cent above 2021 financial year levels._


> “After finalisation of the February trading numbers, which continue improved earnings for the first quarter, we now believe we will exceed analysts’ consensus for the full year to 30 September 2022 and produce an Underlying EBIT result in the range - which is necessarily broad given we are only five months into our financial year - set out above.





> “We have seen improvement in our Retail and Wholesale segments compared with the same time last financial year due to increased sales and favourable seasonal conditions in most parts of Australia. While we believe some of these sales are forward purchasing by primary producers seeking to mitigate the risk of instability in supply chains, we consider the majority of sales are a result of increased activity.





> “Our Agency business continues to perform strongly as a result of high prices in both sheep and cattle, offset to some extent by lower volumes due to restocking and the good availability of feed on farm. Real Estate is also exceeding expectations due to increased turnover and high demand. The increase in activity is due to a combination of market and seasonal factors, acquisition growth and organic growth."


----------



## Dona Ferentes (24 May 2022)

Dona Ferentes said:


> and a 12 month high, up 8% on early trade
> _Elders says it expects in underlying EBIT for the 2022 financial year to be 20 to 30 per cent above 2021 financial year levels._



ELD pushing to a 10 year high yesterday and was above $15 by the end of the day, with a strong result for the six months to the end of March which also saw a lift to its full year earnings guidance.

Revenue jumped 38% to $1.514.8 billion as the company rode the breaking of the drought and the vastly improved outlook for rural commodities.
That saw Elders deliver an 80% jump in EBIT to $132.8 million
A 34% increase in net profit after tax to $91.2 million.
The strong profit growth allowed the Elders board to declare a 30% franked 28 cents a share interim dividend, which is up 40% year on year.
Elders said it saw growth across all product areas and geographies. The best was its Rural Products business, which reported a 47% jump in sales to $312.9 million. This reflects strong demand for fertiliser and crop protection products following favourable seasonal conditions across major cropping regions.

CEO Mark Allison is confident the good times can continue. He said on Monday he sees the buoyant conditions in the agricultural sector for the next 18 months to two years, with demand for fertilisers and cropping chemicals strong, and cattle and sheep prices staying high.

He also said he thought Elders estate division which he says is unlikely to be curtailed by rising interest rates.

In light of the company’s improved first half performance during the first half and strong start to the current second half, Elders management upgraded its earnings guidance for the year to September.


> “_The strong first half performance has continued in April and we now expect to deliver *full year 2022 Underlying EBIT in the range of 30% to 40% above* full year 2021 Underlying EBIT. This expectation replaces the guidance we gave to the market on 14 March 2022._”




But as usual Elders warned that this guidance was subject to caveats such as potential supply chain disruptions as a result of COVID-19 and geopolitical events, unexpected changes to seasonal conditions and severe weather events, and unexpected changes in commodity prices.


----------



## eskys (15 November 2022)

Was this stock overdone yesterday? I didn't read the sensitive announcement.  Will be interesting to see what it'll do tomorrow


----------



## peter2 (15 November 2022)

A chart reminder that no matter how we're trading we're going to get some unexpected upsets. 
*ELD* shows a nice weekly pull-back entry that started well and continued higher until ...






Don't fall into the trap of thinking that can't get any worse. Yes, it can.


----------



## eskys (15 November 2022)

Thank you, Peter. Mick and divs aren't keen on it either. I don't hold anymore........only quick day trades. (Looking at the depth, it was inviting, but I got out) Couldn't help myself, did a quick trade and got away with it. Good luck with your trades, Peter.


----------



## divs4ever (15 November 2022)

on the plus side ( for Elders ) they have  a reasonably well-run real estate arm/office  in this area  , but that wasn't enough to reverse my biases


----------

