# Analysis Techniques Discussion Thread - How it's used, why it works or why it doesn't



## tech/a (4 March 2015)

I suggest this thread is used for examples of all types of Fundamental and Technical Analysis with supporting evidence of how it works and why and when it works.

There are a lot of blanket statements without supporting evidence.
This is a thread where that can be presented without de railing a thread
where a point about a form of analysis is being placed up as a view and disagreements form.
Hear they can be discussed and each view presented.


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## tech/a (9 March 2015)

*Re: Analysis Techniques Discussion Thread - How it's used, why it works or why it doe*

Are there ANY analysis techniques that people use and work consistently?


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## luutzu (9 March 2015)

*Re: Analysis Techniques Discussion Thread - How it's used, why it works or why it doe*



tech/a said:


> Are there ANY analysis techniques that people use and work consistently?




While not an analysis, I think an important point to note when debating the merit of fundamental vs TA is that with TA the investor/trader will always have to work to make a buck whereas with fundamental, you'd only need to work hard before you invest and thereafter only look at your investment once or twice a year.

So with fundamental, if the investor still want to work and want to look for better opportunities.. .then they keep at it. But if they decide to spend time with the kids, take a holiday or just retire... their holdings will work for them. I think TA people will probably have to sell all their holdings if they want to get away.

In other words, fundamentalists can have their money (and the enterprises it's put into) working for them where the TA will have to always hang around working with their money. Assuming either approach have their merits and can be as equally profitable... owing and thus having a business work for you is preferable to me because I want to go to Disneyland some day and somebody got to still earn a living for me


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## skyQuake (9 March 2015)

*Re: Analysis Techniques Discussion Thread - How it's used, why it works or why it doe*



tech/a said:


> Are there ANY analysis techniques that people use and work consistently?




Nice try!


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## tech/a (9 March 2015)

*Re: Analysis Techniques Discussion Thread - How it's used, why it works or why it doe*



skyQuake said:


> Nice try!




Trying to get the topic up and running.
I'm not looking for an F/A v T/A debate.
What I will be presenting is exactly what the topic
Is asking.
But I'd like to see others involved before I am.

Thanks Luutzu
Both forms of analysis can operate in varios timeframes.
Both can be managed from a laptop. So in respect to your
Comments I think either are on an even footing with regard
To manageability.


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## AlterEgo (9 March 2015)

*Re: Analysis Techniques Discussion Thread - How it's used, why it works or why it doe*



tech/a said:


> Are there ANY analysis techniques that people use and work consistently?




Not sure if you'd call it an "analysis", but system trading has been working consistently for me.


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## AlterEgo (9 March 2015)

*Re: Analysis Techniques Discussion Thread - How it's used, why it works or why it doe*



luutzu said:


> with TA the investor/trader will always have to work to make a buck




I don't think that necessarily true. If you are trading a system for example, there is very little work involved (after developing the system in the first place). I don't need to to be glued to a screen all day or anything.


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## tech/a (9 March 2015)

*Re: Analysis Techniques Discussion Thread - How it's used, why it works or why it doe*



AlterEgo said:


> Not sure if you'd call it an "analysis", but system trading has been working consistently for me.




Yes it certainly is.

Can you briefly explain why this works for you
How you apply it and why it works?


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## luutzu (9 March 2015)

*Re: Analysis Techniques Discussion Thread - How it's used, why it works or why it doe*



AlterEgo said:


> I don't think that necessarily true. If you are trading a system for example, there is very little work involved (after developing the system in the first place). I don't need to to be glued to a screen all day or anything.




An automated system working for you is not the same as what I mean by having the business you buy through stock ownership working for you. But I know what you mean.

Take Bill Gates... he doesn't really work to earn the millions per hour that his income worked out to be. He earn it through the Windows and Office software and whatever it is Microsoft also do.

So he can take times off and save the world and still is the richest man in the world with constant income stream - from Microsoft working for him.

Some may call this compound interest, and it's true but it's also about owning an asset that could potentially go on earning for generations, often without you needing to do much to it (as an investor).

That's a real advantage to treating stocks as a share in a great business rather than as a commodity to be traded.

But that's off topic... 

As to technique and its consistent application... There is that Way in fundamental... but like the true way, it cannot be defined, haha (i'm serious - can't define it by, say, high ROE and high profit margin and no debt... can't define it that concretely)


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## AlterEgo (10 March 2015)

*Re: Analysis Techniques Discussion Thread - How it's used, why it works or why it doe*



tech/a said:


> Yes it certainly is.
> 
> Can you briefly explain why this works for you
> How you apply it and why it works?




Well in a practical sense it works for me because:
1.	Having tested it and seeing that it has had a fairly consistent edge over time, it gives me the confidence to stick to it when in drawdown.
2.	With a system the rules are not subjective.
3.	Requires little time to apply. 
4.	No need to watch the market during the day, so fits in with having a full-time job.

I apply it by running an exploration in Amibroker after market hours and place the trades it says for the next day.

Why it works I could only speculate at. It’s a mean reversion strategy. On a short term basis, say a few days duration, the market is mean reverting in nature. Why the market mean reverts though I’m not so sure – perhaps it’s that the market tends to overreact to any bad news, people panic and sell, however the next day or few days later the market has usually recovered most of the drop. So I’m buying when the majority are selling, and vice versa. As we know, the majority of market participants lose money, so taking the opposite position makes some sense. So I guess it’s really a contrarian type of approach.

Another benefit of this approach is that you don’t get any slippage. You either get the price you want, or better, or don’t get filled at all. Gaps work in your favour and get you a better entry price or better exit price.


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## CanOz (10 March 2015)

*Re: Analysis Techniques Discussion Thread - How it's used, why it works or why it doe*



AlterEgo said:


> Well in a practical sense it works for me because:
> 1.	Having tested it and seeing that it has had a fairly consistent edge over time, it gives me the confidence to stick to it when in drawdown.
> 2.	With a system the rules are not subjective.
> 3.	Requires little time to apply.
> ...




Nice, great work. Would love to see some stats....do you notice regime changes and how does it affect the system performance?


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## CanOz (10 March 2015)

*Re: Analysis Techniques Discussion Thread - How it's used, why it works or why it doe*



skyQuake said:


> Nice try!




I think Sky was saying "who would want to give up their edge"...


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## tech/a (10 March 2015)

*Re: Analysis Techniques Discussion Thread - How it's used, why it works or why it doe*



CanOz said:


> I think Sky was saying "who would want to give up their edge"...




You don't have to give up the implementation or application of what you do but a general description.

The basic premise of analysis why and how it works is way off practical application.

That's what many "Educators" live off!


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## darkhorse70 (10 March 2015)

*Re: Analysis Techniques Discussion Thread - How it's used, why it works or why it doe*

Would love to contribute but atm its still a working progess. 

will follow with interest though.


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## AlterEgo (10 March 2015)

*Re: Analysis Techniques Discussion Thread - How it's used, why it works or why it doe*



CanOz said:


> Nice, great work. Would love to see some stats....do you notice regime changes and how does it affect the system performance?




Well there have been some periods where it seems to have stopped working for several months – basically the equity curve pauses for a while before resuming upwards again. See system test for the last 5 years attached, and the associated equity curve.

This test is without using leverage. And it’s also using a fixed value for one of the parameters that I use. In practice though, I vary this parameter to suit the market conditions at the time. Eg. In a more dull market, with less volatility, I tend to get very few trades with the default value, so I loosen the value to get more trades. And in a more volatile period where I’m getting far too many trade signals to take, I tighten up this value to make the system more selective.


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## AlterEgo (10 March 2015)

*Re: Analysis Techniques Discussion Thread - How it's used, why it works or why it doe*

Theoretical back tests are one thing, reality is often another, so here are the actual results that I have achieved with real money.

Attached is my actual equity curve since the beginning of 2013 to present. I have changed the vertical axis to show as % profit from the beginning value, to avoid showing dollar values, as I am not keen on showing my financial details on the forum. This is using leverage of up to 2x, although it’s usually no more than 1.5x.


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## Value Collector (10 March 2015)

*Re: Analysis Techniques Discussion Thread - How it's used, why it works or why it doe*

The Basic concept behind security analysis ( Value Investing / Fundamental Analysis ), Is that you are not looking at market price action to decide entry and exit points into the market, rather you are looking to the assets owned by the underlying companies, their liabilities and conservative estimates of earning power over time and the valuations you place on them to give you an idea of what each share is worth to you and it's likely value in the future.

You go through a similar process to what you would be doing if you were planning to buy a piece of real estate or business out right.

I mentioned this in another thread.



> your looking at the asset itself to generate a return, if you own a farm, a house or any business, your looking at the return the asset is likely to produce over the coming years to justify the price you pay for it, If you have a farm and it produces X amount of corn per acre each year on average then you will be happy, your not going to look at the price of the farm every day, your going to keep an eye on the farms production and make sure everything is running smoothly and returns are as expected,




So for me I try to find good businesses which I can understand the basic economics of, then I determine a conservative value, which I believe the entire business is worth, bring this number back to a per share figure, and if the shares are selling for less than what I calculate the fair value to be based on my required return, I will add them to my portfolio. Then it is just a matter of watching my portfolio and making sure the companies are performing as expected.


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## CanOz (10 March 2015)

*Re: Analysis Techniques Discussion Thread - How it's used, why it works or why it doe*

I don't think there are too many directional index traders at Prop shops, I could be wrong but I think those like TH are few and far between. My guess, based on who and what I know is that the successful ones do not use the charts for patterns, trend lines etc...what I think they do is they develop the context around the time and the market they're trading. Then they develop a few scenarios on how the day could play out. When the market opens they're watching orders flow, bids and asks. They wait to see who is winning and then they find an opportunity to jump in with a small core position and take some points. If the market stalls they may get out and try again later. If the market starts to trend then my bet is they get real aggressive and work to get up to full size before scaling out into the end of a move....or at least a good part, scaling out back to their core position....

Any prop guys care to let me know if I'm close to the mark here...?


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## tech/a (10 March 2015)

*Re: Analysis Techniques Discussion Thread - How it's used, why it works or why it doe*

Thanks V/C 
Couple of questions from a techie

(1) For a stock to qualify what sort of difference in price are you looking for.10/30/50+ %??
(2) Time is of no concern---I believe---- this being the case 
(3) Do you have any concern or plan if after say 6 mth price is below your buy price
(4) How often do you re value each stock in your portfolio
I presume you trade without stops
(5) Do you ever sell a stock other than to take profit 
(6) Do you have a universe you trade from?
(7) How many stocks form your portfolio?


In your experience why do valuations differ from person to person.
Everyone has the same information?

Do you ever cull your portfolio and under what conditions.
IE under performers or losers.


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## tech/a (10 March 2015)

*Re: Analysis Techniques Discussion Thread - How it's used, why it works or why it doe*

Can
Isn't that directional--once decided---for the session.
Or 
Your saying they let the market dictate dierection and if right hit it


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## CanOz (10 March 2015)

*Re: Analysis Techniques Discussion Thread - How it's used, why it works or why it doe*



tech/a said:


> Can
> Isn't that directional--once decided---for the session.
> Or
> Your saying they let the market dictate direction and if right hit it




Well actually, I'm not saying that these guys are not directional, just that directional guys are actually not the norm, bill spreaders are the norm. Directional equity index futures traders only, are a rare breed. Directional equity traders are fairly common though, from what I've seen and heard.

My point was that the few directional prop guys that exist, would be using a method similar to what i described...although their method of developing context could differ greatly between individuals.

Just my guess.

CanOz


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## tech/a (10 March 2015)

*Re: Analysis Techniques Discussion Thread - How it's used, why it works or why it doe*



CanOz said:


> Well actually, I'm not saying that these guys are not directional, just that directional guys are actually not the norm, bill spreaders are the norm. Directional equity index futures traders only, are a rare breed. Directional equity traders are fairly common though, from what I've seen and heard.
> 
> My point was that the few directional prop guys that exist, would be using a method similar to what i described...although their method of developing context could differ greatly between individuals.
> 
> ...




Noticed a long discussion on another forum while I searched for what a bill spread was!

You've traded spreads Can.
Can you go into them a bit more as far as futures goes and the whys and where fores?
Also the guys who trade stock spreads.

Never looked at them.


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## CanOz (10 March 2015)

*Re: Analysis Techniques Discussion Thread - How it's used, why it works or why it doe*



tech/a said:


> Noticed a long discussion on another forum while I searched for what a bill spread was!
> 
> You've traded spreads Can.
> Can you go into them a bit more as far as futures goes and the whys and where fores?
> ...




Well i traded calendar spreads in agricultural commodities, some energy...it was a good learning experience but nothing note worthy. These prop guys are trading hundreds of contracts at a time in two or more instruments, such as bunds versus bonds, T-Bills versus T-Bonds, Heating oil versus crude oil, trying to scalp out a few ticks. They wait for a period of time when a pair get out of normal correlation, such as an open, or a news event and then take advantage of the arbitrage opportunity.

Its tedious, boring trading and many a directional wanna be has been totally turned off by it as they are disappointed that its something totally different than directional bets. Nonetheless, for the patient its extremely rewarding.

 I know one guy that's set for life, he's in his early thirties. His trading account alone is 3m. Sometimes it takes him half a day to leg into a position. He once flew a long haul flight and when he boarded he was 70k EUR in the red on a Euribor spread trade, what a way to get ulcers....

CanOz


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## banco (10 March 2015)

*Re: Analysis Techniques Discussion Thread - How it's used, why it works or why it doe*



CanOz said:


> I don't think there are too many directional index traders at Prop shops, I could be wrong but I think those like TH are few and far between. My guess, based on who and what I know is that the successful ones do not use the charts for patterns, trend lines etc...what I think they do is they develop the context around the time and the market they're trading. Then they develop a few scenarios on how the day could play out. When the market opens they're watching orders flow, bids and asks. They wait to see who is winning and then they find an opportunity to jump in with a small core position and take some points. If the market stalls they may get out and try again later. If the market starts to trend then my bet is they get real aggressive and work to get up to full size before scaling out into the end of a move....or at least a good part, scaling out back to their core position....
> 
> Any prop guys care to let me know if I'm close to the mark here...?




Sounds like what FT71 does (or at least purports to do).


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## CanOz (10 March 2015)

*Re: Analysis Techniques Discussion Thread - How it's used, why it works or why it doe*

Here is an example of how a trader can trade around a core position. This is from another forum and it is only an example of the theory, its a hindsight explanation. The context is built around a VWAP but that's not the point, any thing can be used, order flow levels in the DOM, support and resistance, Prior open, close, weekly levels etc.. The point is, trading around a core position, scaling in and out and building up to maximum package...


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## Value Collector (11 March 2015)

*Re: Analysis Techniques Discussion Thread - How it's used, why it works or why it doe*



tech/a said:


> Thanks V/C
> Couple of questions from a techie
> 
> (1) For a stock to qualify what sort of difference in price are you looking for.10/30/50+ %??
> .




That depends on how confident you are in the business, a company operating in a monopoly with guaranteed earnings you would be happy with a smaller discount, a company with fluctuating earnings would require a larger discount.



> (2) Time is of no concern---I believe---- this being the case




I don't invest in companies that I think will run out of steam in 12months, So as long as the company is operating within my expectations generating earnings and building value I want to hold it as long as possible. 




> (3) Do you have any concern or plan if after say 6 mth price is below your buy price




Only if the reason for this is something negative happening at the company level, market fluctuations don't bother me, eg as long as the farm is producing  the returns I want, I am not worried about price of farms in the short term.

I generally take long term positions.




> (4) How often do you re value each stock in your portfolio




Every 12 months I do a full revaluation and update my notes, but I track company performance quarterly



> I presume you trade without stops




correct



> (5) Do you ever sell a stock other than to take profit




I would sell a stock if there were changes negative changes at the company level or if I realised I was wrong about my long term outlook for the comapny



> (6) Do you have a universe you trade from?




Yes, companies I understand.



> (7) How many stocks form your portfolio?




Seven owned stocks, and options positions on 3 others




> In your experience why do valuations differ from person to person.
> Everyone has the same information?




Lots of reasons, some build in more conservative figures than others, some exclude whole divisions of businesses from their valuation.

If I had a black box, that produced 100% guaranteed $100K each year, if I auctioned it, people would value it at different amounts, you might want a 10% return and offer me $1M another guy might want only 5% and offer me $2M

Same if there was a pizza shop that owned it's premises and earned between $100K and $150K each year, you and I could have different valuations, you might value the building different to me, I might put a big discount on earnings as a safety margin, and Pav might think pizza is going out of fashion and property is a bad investment.



> Do you ever cull your portfolio and under what conditions.




yes I would, but not based on share price performance, it would be based on me being wrong about the business or negative changes at the company level


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## tech/a (11 March 2015)

*Re: Analysis Techniques Discussion Thread - How it's used, why it works or why it doe*

Thanks V/C
Appreciated.


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## Habakkuk (11 March 2015)

*Re: Analysis Techniques Discussion Thread - How it's used, why it works or why it doe*

Hi Alter Ego,

I've been looking at the backtest statistics of your trading system. It's impressive but I'm puzzled about the 82.9% trade drawdown (Ouch!). This must be one stock that gapped down massively during the test period, maybe July/Aug 2011 or Aug 2012, looking at the equity chart. It would surely not have occurred in real-life trading. Or is it bad data, maybe an un-adjusted stock split? I've looked at the ASX 200 stocks in my Yahoo data for the stock responsible but without success. Do you know what happened? I'm just curious, simply an academic interest.

Another question, if I may, is about using limit orders. How do you do that with exits? You enter the order before the market opens and you go to work. How do you know what price to enter? And what if your system says sell at $10.00 and the stock opens at $10.50 and goes up all day? Conversely, you need to exit but the best available is $9.99 and it's all downhill from there?

If this is a trade secret, I understand, it's just my curiosity.

Cheers,

Haba


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## AlterEgo (13 March 2015)

*Re: Analysis Techniques Discussion Thread - How it's used, why it works or why it doe*



Habakkuk said:


> Hi Alter Ego,
> 
> I've been looking at the backtest statistics of your trading system. It's impressive but I'm puzzled about the 82.9% trade drawdown (Ouch!). This must be one stock that gapped down massively during the test period, maybe July/Aug 2011 or Aug 2012, looking at the equity chart. It would surely not have occurred in real-life trading. Or is it bad data, maybe an un-adjusted stock split? I've looked at the ASX 200 stocks in my Yahoo data for the stock responsible but without success. Do you know what happened? I'm just curious, simply an academic interest.




Hi Haba,

Looks like it was PBT, that gapped down a huge amount after an announcement, 28/03/2014 - 1/04/2014. So yeah, it can happen in real trading, although would be a fairly rare occurrence. But you don’t put your entire equity on a single trade. So even though the drawdown of the individual trade is large, it doesn’t have too large an impact on the overall system equity. So if for example, you put 10% of your equity on each trade, then an 80% drop in one of them only has an 8% impact on the total equity.



Habakkuk said:


> Another question, if I may, is about using limit orders. How do you do that with exits? You enter the order before the market opens and you go to work. How do you know what price to enter? And what if your system says sell at $10.00 and the stock opens at $10.50 and goes up all day? Conversely, you need to exit but the best available is $9.99 and it's all downhill from there?
> 
> If this is a trade secret, I understand, it's just my curiosity.
> 
> ...




Well I place a limit sell order above the current market price. My system tells me what price to set it at.

If as in your example, I have a limit sell order at $10, and the stock opens at $10.50, then I will be filled at $10.50 and gain an extra 50c. If it only gets to $9.99 and heads down, well, bad luck, I missed out on selling that day. Next day my limit sell may be at, say, $9.80, and perhaps I do get a fill on this day. So the target sell price is adjusted each day depending on what the market price is doing. Basicly it's like a trailing stop, but in reverse. Eventually it will hit my price and exit, although if many days have past it may be at a loss. But as you can see on my report, most trades would be exited within 5 days and most trades exit at a profit.

regards,
AlterEgo


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## Habakkuk (13 March 2015)

*Re: Analysis Techniques Discussion Thread - How it's used, why it works or why it doe*



AlterEgo said:


> If as in your example, I have a limit sell order at $10, and the stock opens at $10.50, then I will be filled at $10.50 and gain an extra 50c.




Thanks for your explanation. Actually, I have learnt a lot from those 3 posts. And I simply didn't know about limit sell orders. I assumed you would be filled at $10.00.

As I'm only dealing in "theory", not actually trading, these details come as a surprise.

The most intriguing feature of your system is the adjustable parameter. As a long-time Amibroker user, that's something I want to investigate. Although it's still only an academic exercise for me.


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## Pnut (8 April 2015)

*Re: Analysis Techniques Discussion Thread - How it's used, why it works or why it doe*



tech/a said:


> I suggest this thread is used for examples of all types of Fundamental and Technical Analysis with supporting evidence of how it works and why and when it works.




After spending 9+ yrs programming and back testing. Reading through large amounts of quality books written by established / successful traders. I discovered a certain condition that arises during the _*Auction Process*_ that no one really explained to me before. I found it in a definitive form of *Compression / Squeeze*, yet I do acknowledge that W.D.Gann and Jesse Livermore also describe it in various ways. 

First and foremost - The path of least resistance. Trend direction. Simply by trading in the direction of a defined trend you increase your odds to 60%+. Shares , commodities etc don't go from A to B overnight, usually they take time months even years to get there, hence the forming of an established trend.

Second - *Recognizing Compression / Squeeze Zone* in the bid / ask price. What I have found is when a instrument is trending higher for example, it is bought and sold stops are put above and below the market. The supply and demand struggle then the price moves into the stop zone. The sellers get their stops hit and they help propel the price higher as they cover. Some of the buyers recognize the stop run and take profit, others hold on tight. Eventually the buyers are exhausted the stops are filled at new highs and we wait for a pull back.

Gann points out that if a stock etc is trending higher it's Time & Price going up will be greater then coming down. Stops get hit, the price collapses and starts to move down with a couple of big days helped by some profit taking and new stops that have been trailed up under the lows. New short position stops accumulate above the market. The price continues to move lower then the short term long traders come to market and begin to buy. They slow down the decent but the price continues down as more shorts come to market and late profit takers / long stops get triggered etc. 

Then after a few more days the medium term guys notice the price stabilizing at support so they begin to buy. Then the longer term guys see the shorter & medium term guys buying, because the time is going bye but the price is not falling. So after a short period we get *compression / squeeze* in the price where all 3 time frame groups are buying. 

Now this does not mean the price will rise and it may fall. However I have found that if I buy in this compression zone I am with friends my odds for success can rise to 80%. The risk is the stop zone that has now formed under the market. My preferred entry is a signal bar in the compression / squeeze zone. So if I see the compression zone and I see a signal bar like a Narrow Range, MACD Divergence, Pin Bar, etc I have added to my odds because there are many other traders who also see the same signal bar and some one caused it to happen. *I am entering a trade with confidence that I am with friends entering in the direction of the trend at the appropriate time.*

Third - Managing the trade. Then comes the trade management. Even though the odds are on my side I also recognise the shorts have their reasons to sell. I usually aim for a double top because it has a much higher percent of success. The losing trades usually come from a trend change, so the trend is your friend till the end.

A good example of this is TLS over the last couple of years. As long as you were a buyer in the compression zone with a signal and took profit at the double top or trailed the stop you had a winning trade.
My thoughts only.
Pnut.


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## AverageJoe (31 May 2015)

*Re: Analysis Techniques Discussion Thread - How it's used, why it works or why it doe*

AlterEgo, I am just curious wrt your mean revert system. Is is a Hometrader inspired system?


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## Spongle007 (22 July 2015)

*Re: Analysis Techniques Discussion Thread - How it's used, why it works or why it doe*

The only analysis techniques that have worked for me (Simulations only as i am a poor bastard) and made profits were from utilizing TA in the short and medium range... catching the near beginning of an intermediate trend generally. Candlesticks and a few indicators together. Moving averages and RSI and/or MACD.

My first foray into all this stuff were stocks mostly but figured I'd need a fair amount of capital to get anywhere... at present I'm looking into forex as it seems great gains can potentially be made from a small startup purse which I am completely prepared to lose at it's not that much any way.

I need to watch the financial news alot more really... especially with the Greek situation. Should be interesting.


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## Wysiwyg (22 July 2015)

*Re: Analysis Techniques Discussion Thread - How it's used, why it works or why it doe*



Spongle007 said:


> ... catching the near beginning of an intermediate trend generally.



Interested to know how the near beginning of an intermediate trend is identified (before it is an intermediate trend )?


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## Spongle007 (22 July 2015)

*Re: Analysis Techniques Discussion Thread - How it's used, why it works or why it doe*

Ok I'll rephrase that... I caught the beginning of one on my first simulation. In time I figured 'oh cool I caught a good time to buy' so yeah I def didn't know it was one until after the fact haha!

Lot's for me to learn... well fun though!


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