# Trading The SPI - NON-Gann Techniques



## wayneL

This thread is for SPI trading discussion using any sort of techniques that is *NOT Gann.*

Some ground rules.

No hindsite trades.

No solicitation of education services.

The posting of dollar sums of profit or loss is discouraged.

Do not post information or discussion on technique if you are not prepared to answer questions. Preservation of intellectual property is fine, but please, no teasers. This will be viewed as backdoor solicitation.

DO ask questions and partake in discussions for mutual benefit

DO respect peoples time and opinion.

Live calls of trades would be much better in the chatroom due to the inevitable time lag with the forum, and we would encourage people to post live trades there.

Thankyou

OK that all the stern moderator stuff out of the way.

Please enjoy.


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## spitrader1

wayneL said:
			
		

> This thread is for SPI trading discussion using any sort of techniques that is *NOT Gann.*
> 
> Some ground rules.
> 
> No hindsite trades.
> 
> No solicitation of education services.
> 
> The posting of dollar sums of profit or loss is discouraged.
> 
> Do not post information or discussion on technique if you are not prepared to answer questions. Preservation of intellectual property is fine, but please, no teasers. This will be viewed as backdoor solicitation.
> 
> DO ask questions and partake in discussions for mutual benefit
> 
> DO respect peoples time and opinion.
> 
> Live calls of trades would be much better in the chatroom due to the inevitable time lag with the forum, and we would encourage people to post live trades there.
> 
> Thankyou
> 
> OK that all the stern moderator stuff out of the way.
> 
> Please enjoy.




good stuff


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## spitrader1

spitrader1 said:
			
		

> good stuff




anyone here trade/use artac advisory??


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## professor_frink

spitrader1 said:
			
		

> anyone here trade/use artac advisory??



Morning spi,

Never heard of them. What do they do?


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## spitrader1

professor_frink said:
			
		

> Morning spi,
> 
> Never heard of them. What do they do?



artacadvisory.com

i havent looked in depth yet, but they look like chartists....


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## professor_frink

spitrader1 said:
			
		

> artacadvisory.com
> 
> i havent looked in depth yet, but they look like chartists....



Cheers might have a look when I get a chance.


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## Euler

spitrader1 said:
			
		

> artacadvisory.com
> 
> i havent looked in depth yet, but they look like chartists....



they are chartists.  my broker sent me some samples for a few weeks but (from what I recall) they seemed like longer term traders (cf daytrading so it didn't suit my style then).  they seemed to have buy and sell points at the outer trading range.  i'll check but don't think i kept any of the reports.

spitrader1 ... do you use or can comment on Market Profile?


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## spitrader1

Euler said:
			
		

> they are chartists.  my broker sent me some samples for a few weeks but (from what I recall) they seemed like longer term traders (cf daytrading so it didn't suit my style then).  they seemed to have buy and sell points at the outer trading range.  i'll check but don't think i kept any of the reports.
> 
> spitrader1 ... do you use or can comment on Market Profile?



no i dont euler


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## professor_frink

Well what a crap morning for me- Put a buy order in at 61 as we pulled back towards the pivot after the initial move up- market got to 62 and took off......without me  

Oh well. That will teach me to use limit orders and haggle over a point


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## spitrader1

professor_frink said:
			
		

> Well what a crap morning for me- Put a buy order in at 61 as we pulled back towards the pivot after the initial move up- market got to 62 and took off......without me
> 
> Oh well. That will teach me to use limit orders and haggle over a point



i say well done for sticking to your trading method and not giving in to the market!!


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## professor_frink

spitrader1 said:
			
		

> i say well done for sticking to your trading method and not giving in to the market!!



Why thank you sir  
Didn't want to go chasing it this morning. With the relatively flat opening, I thought the pivot would've been tested again. Not this time.
Going for a round of golf this arvo, so looks like I'll miss out today. I'll take out my frustration on the local golf course I think


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## spitrader1

professor_frink said:
			
		

> Why thank you sir
> Didn't want to go chasing it this morning. With the relatively flat opening, I thought the pivot would've been tested again. Not this time.
> Going for a round of golf this arvo, so looks like I'll miss out today. I'll take out my frustration on the local golf course I think



where do you play golf professor?? ahh the life, i remember the days of a quick SPI scalp in the morning and then a couple of birds in the avo on the course!!


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## professor_frink

spitrader1 said:
			
		

> where do you play golf professor?? ahh the life, i remember the days of a quick SPI scalp in the morning and then a couple of birds in the avo on the course!!



Nowhere special, just the local course in my hovel of a town, at the bottom of Lake Macquarie.

I know, it's a tough life isn't it


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## spitrader1

professor_frink said:
			
		

> Nowhere special, just the local course in my hovel of a town, at the bottom of Lake Macquarie.
> 
> I know, it's a tough life isn't it



may the golfing gods, and the spi, be with you


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## spitrader1

spitrader1 said:
			
		

> may the golfing gods, and the spi, be with you



what a day!!!

massive move through double 0, on volume. then it pulls back and stabalises into the 90's only to fall out of bed after the cash closes to the 75's..


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## professor_frink

spitrader1 said:
			
		

> what a day!!!
> 
> massive move through double 0, on volume. then it pulls back and stabalises into the 90's only to fall out of bed after the cash closes to the 75's..



Maybe I should have stuck around! There was plenty to be had- enough that I wouldn't have cared about missing out in the morning! Not to worry  

Took a new taylormade R7 out for a spin during my round yesterday- I have never hit a ball as far as I did with that club! Beautiful piece of equipment.

for $600+ you'd kind of expect that!


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## spitrader1

professor_frink said:
			
		

> Maybe I should have stuck around! There was plenty to be had- enough that I wouldn't have cared about missing out in the morning! Not to worry
> 
> Took a new taylormade R7 out for a spin during my round yesterday- I have never hit a ball as far as I did with that club! Beautiful piece of equipment.
> 
> for $600+ you'd kind of expect that!



i own the r5 professor...its not a patch on the r7..


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## professor_frink

It's the first big headed club that I've felt comfortable using, so I'm really keen to get one.

Got the pullback to the pivot this morning that I was looking for and missed out on yesterday, so if it goes well I might see if I can get one this week


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## professor_frink

professor_frink said:
			
		

> It's the first big headed club that I've felt comfortable using, so I'm really keen to get one.
> 
> Got the pullback to the pivot this morning that I was looking for and missed out on yesterday, so if it goes well I might see if I can get one this week



well that didn't work out too well


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## professor_frink

No new driver for me today  

Had a failed move up early in the morning(although probably jumped the gun a bit-had an itchy trigger finger after missing out yesterday), another move up later in the morning that didn't really get going, a bit of lunchtime chop, followed by some good happy half hour fireworks at the end. All up, had a bit of everything today


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## Euler

Massive and unexpected move up this morning (at least by me!!).  That's the problem with having pre-conceived ideas, rather than let the market show you the way.

It runs out of steam testing the all highs, though and may be a road sign to a change in sentiment "longer" term (next day or 2).

"Shorter" term (30min chart) sitting on high of the range.  If rejects 5400 looking for a return to the 70's.  If it breaks 00 on good volume it'll want to take out 09 (the major obstacle) and for an assault higher.  The post lunch will be worth watching now!

my  worth


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## Euler

Euler said:
			
		

> If it breaks 00 on good volume it'll want to take out 09 (the major obstacle) and for an assault higher.  The post lunch will be worth watching now!
> my  worth



Got there but no volume to speak of ... yep it is lunch ... could be setting up for a fall.
spi ... prof ... if yr here would like yr thoughts.


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## professor_frink

Howdy Euler just got back from a lovely trip to Sydney Airport........man I hate traffic in that place- country folk like myself aren't meant to drive in peak hour Sydney traffic 

Looks like I missed an interesting morning  

My thoughts-
The break of 5409 was pretty weak, and on low volume. Possible short from here, but one I won't be taking at this time of day, if volume looks like it's picking up, then I may have a go.


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## Euler

Have we seen the demise of the SPI trading forum? ... pity ... maybe everyone glued to their screens and no time to devote to this forum ....  

may the spi-gods be with you and good trading.


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## spitrader1

Euler said:
			
		

> Have we seen the demise of the SPI trading forum? ... pity ... maybe everyone glued to their screens and no time to devote to this forum ....
> 
> may the spi-gods be with you and good trading.



maybe....i am waiting for my new screens/system to be setp up euler so thats why i havent been posting here..because i havent been trading. unlike others who shall not be named, i thought it pointless to post unless i had a view and was trading!!


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## Euler

Market profile theory has caught my interest and with assistance of some forumites  ( ... espec tech  ) have been playing with setups.

Today got a POC5454 and range 5464-5446.  Shorted break of 5454 .. entry 5452 with s/l @ 5460.  So far going well.  Break of 5446 looks good.  Lets see how it pans out.  Looking at low 30's next.

PS ... am only using 1 contract as am uncertain of how it will pan out.


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## professor_frink

Euler said:
			
		

> Market profile theory has caught my interest and with assistance of some forumites  ( ... espec tech  ) have been playing with setups.
> 
> Today got a POC5454 and range 5464-5446.  Shorted break of 5454 .. entry 5452 with s/l @ 5460.  So far going well.  Break of 5446 looks good.  Lets see how it pans out.  Looking at low 30's next.
> 
> PS ... am only using 1 contract as am uncertain of how it will pan out.



I just found a market profile formula for amibroker yesterday, and have no idea on what any of it means!
Do you have any links or info you can pass on Euler?


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## Euler

professor_frink said:
			
		

> I just found a market profile formula for amibroker yesterday, and have no idea on what any of it means!
> Do you have any links or info you can pass on Euler?



prof ... will post details by midday as am flat out right now ....

Trailing stop now @5440


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## professor_frink

Euler said:
			
		

> prof ... will post details by midday as am flat out right now ....
> 
> Trailing stop now @5440



cheers


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## Euler

Euler said:
			
		

> prof ... will post details by midday as am flat out right now ....
> 
> Trailing stop now @5440



Trailing stop now @5435


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## Euler

Euler said:
			
		

> Trailing stop now @5435



Trailing stop now @5430


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## Euler

Euler said:
			
		

> Trailing stop now @5430



Tightening my trailing stop  ....  now @5425


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## Euler

Euler said:
			
		

> Tightening my trailing stop  ....  now @5425



......... and as I write there she keeps falling!!


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## Euler

Euler said:
			
		

> ......... and as I write there she keeps falling!!



Trailing stop now @5420

... fwiw .... my (intra-day) POC now sits @5430


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## Euler

Euler said:
			
		

> Trailing stop now @5420
> 
> ... fwiw .... my (intra-day) POC now sits @5430



Out @5420


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## professor_frink

well done mate.
time to celebrate :drink:


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## Euler

professor_frink said:
			
		

> well done mate.
> time to celebrate :drink:



Thanks Prof .... I need to now sit down and analyse the trade.  Am very green in MP and need to review it fully.  Am conscious that the market may have just been kind to me today (it can do that ... to drop your guard), the market conditions may have been right for the trade, maybe other entry systems may have produced the same result, .... etc. etc.

lol .. I'll analyse it well after that .....    :drink:     ... with a clear head!!


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## Euler

POC from yesterday @5415 and range 29/05.  Sitting on upper range without clear break ... if convincingly breaks upper band should target 53 as the 1st target ...  but no conviction at the moment.

PS  am questioning whether I should include o/night prices to the model.


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## Euler

Euler said:
			
		

> POC from yesterday @5415 and range 29/05.   ...  but no conviction at the moment.



no clear direction so far ... range 35/26 .... possibilities of good scalps if you are very nimble, but if not, likely to sting you .... will now wait for this afternoon


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## Euler

Euler said:
			
		

> no clear direction so far ... range 35/26 .... possibilities of good scalps if you are very nimble, but if not, likely to sting you .... will now wait for this afternoon



15-17 an important area ... can the tide be held back?   ... reasonable volume too


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## nat

hi euler,how are you veiwing matket profile set ups ?

Ive been following a blog of lady that uses market profile exclusivly for a bit ,the accuracy of turning points is not bad i must say she uses e signal for her market profile ,is certainly worth in ivestigating ,her signals today were 5444 ,5413,poc 5430 ,she seems to have two types, longer term and shorter term more for day trading which were ones today ,is interesting. Nathan


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## Euler

nat said:
			
		

> hi euler,how are you veiwing matket profile set ups ?
> 
> Ive been following a blog of lady that uses market profile exclusivly for a bit ,the accuracy of turning points is not bad i must say she uses e signal for her market profile ,is certainly worth in ivestigating ,her signals today were 5444 ,5413,poc 5430 ,she seems to have two types, longer term and shorter term more for day trading which were ones today ,is interesting. Nathan



Before I embark on a data provider like esignal I want to have an understanding and good grasp of the theory and its application.  So far am working out the POC and range myself.  Applying these setups is my current phase.  The time frames chosen is a personal thing and presently am only using the day traded data.  But am looking to test the effect of using the SYCOM data as well.  It's akin (?) to using continuous data to draw swing charts ... no gapping ... but have to test the validity.  Also I update the POC and range as the trading day progresses to try and keep within the current range ... so as not to swim against the tide.  It's all new so far, so am working to gain practical experience.


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## professor_frink

How did your MP levels go today Euler? Did you get a good trade off 1?

How's this for a funny story(but a bit scary as well)

Was long this morning on a move off the daily pivot, had stop set and trade was going ok for a little while, it turned against me so I exited manually. After I finished the trade, I got up and left the room for a few minutes(which I do after every trade), when I came back in, price had moved below the pivot and was heading south. Thinking about a short, I put up my broker's workstation to have a look at the depth, and realised I was already short! I forgot to remove my sell stop when I closed the long, and it had executed while I was out and I didn't even know.
Shaking my head in disbelif at how stupid and careless I'd been, I closed out my short for a 6 point gain.

Gunna have put this one in the "you idiot" file for future reference.


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## Euler

nat said:
			
		

> .... her signals today were 5444 ,5413,poc 5430 ....



By that I would guess that is using the SYCOM data as well, for it would have pushed the values higher compared to my 5415, 29/05 just using SFE data.  Both had setups on the short side this morning ... I couldn't take the trade as I had other committments between 11.30 and 3pm ... but both would have done well ... shorts covered somewhere in the range 09-15 area (made low 09 .. didn't get to my 05 low ... so the range low of 13 was very good).  Interesting setup ...  then a break of 13-15 would have given a possible long.  Volume picked up well from 14:00 on .... I prob would have covered on retracement back to the 30 region .... maybe the other range would have allowed to stay in to ride it to ~40 (depends if you can stomach a 10 point pullback).  If it was me my trailing stop would have had me out.
Ok enough theorising ... market at near close.  More study to acquire a better understanding of it all.


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## Euler

professor_frink said:
			
		

> How did your MP levels go today Euler? Did you get a good trade off 1?  ....   I forgot to remove my sell stop .... I closed out my short for a 6 point gain.



Prof ... had a chuckle ... it was funny in hindsight ... but lucky it was the right way around ... and you didn't walk too far away and to come back to a monster!!  Congrats on the 6 tho'.

Unfortunately Friday's are not good days for me to trade as I have to be away for a good part of the day (11.30-3 today).  So I didn't get in.


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## professor_frink

Euler said:
			
		

> Prof ... had a chuckle ... it was funny in hindsight ... but lucky it was the right way around ... and you didn't walk too far away and to come back to a monster!!  Congrats on the 6 tho'.



Definately funny in hindsight, bloody freaked when I first realised, luckily there wasn't too much chop around the pivots today. I probably should have held the trade- I was thinking of a short anyway, I just panicked when I realised what happened!
I think people in Queensland would have heard the swearing if I had of gone out for the day, and come back for the close to see myself down 15 points on a trade I didn't even know I had taken!


			
				Euler said:
			
		

> Unfortunately Friday's are not good days for me to trade as I have to be away for a good part of the day (11.30-3 today). So I didn't get in.



Oh well maybe Monday then! 

Have a good weekend


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## wayneL

professor_frink said:
			
		

> How did your MP levels go today Euler? Did you get a good trade off 1?
> 
> How's this for a funny story(but a bit scary as well)
> 
> Was long this morning on a move off the daily pivot, had stop set and trade was going ok for a little while, it turned against me so I exited manually. After I finished the trade, I got up and left the room for a few minutes(which I do after every trade), when I came back in, price had moved below the pivot and was heading south. Thinking about a short, I put up my broker's workstation to have a look at the depth, and realised I was already short! I forgot to remove my sell stop when I closed the long, and it had executed while I was out and I didn't even know.
> Shaking my head in disbelif at how stupid and careless I'd been, I closed out my short for a 6 point gain.
> 
> Gunna have put this one in the "you idiot" file for future reference.



Oh Lord have I done that more times than I care to admit to. Funnily enough, they *usually work out OK.

Maybe there's something instructive in that... hmmmm gonna have to think about that one.

Cheers


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## professor_frink

wayneL said:
			
		

> Oh Lord have I done that more times than I care to admit to. Funnily enough, they *usually work out OK.
> 
> Maybe there's something instructive in that... hmmmm gonna have to think about that one.
> 
> Cheers



Thank god I'm not the only one then  

It has been said that there is a case for always being in the market. Maybe it has some merit. I think it would be my downfall if I tried it though


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## Euler

Watching reaction to the low bracket @ 21


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## Euler

Euler said:
			
		

> Watching reaction to the low bracket @ 21



Moves looks good with follow through the POC @ 26 .... looking for a possible test of upper bracket @ 40.  On downside ... concern at reducing volume .... so may not get there.


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## spitrader1

wayneL said:
			
		

> Oh Lord have I done that more times than I care to admit to. Funnily enough, they *usually work out OK.
> 
> Maybe there's something instructive in that... hmmmm gonna have to think about that one.
> 
> Cheers



i have done that twice, both time for a small profit, but as you know, its quite a scary experience.


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## professor_frink

well, this morning has been pretty good- nice smooth moves with basically no pullbacks at all.

It sucks for me though- I waited for a rally to short into this morning- didn't happen.
Been waiting for a pullback in the uptrend that is now going- that hasn't happened either  

I did however make $5 playing poker while I was waiting for a trade, so it's not all bad. Looks like it's lentils for dinner tonight


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## spitrader1

professor_frink said:
			
		

> well, this morning has been pretty good- nice smooth moves with basically no pullbacks at all.
> 
> It sucks for me though- I waited for a rally to short into this morning- didn't happen.
> Been waiting for a pullback in the uptrend that is now going- that hasn't happened either
> 
> I did however make $5 playing poker while I was waiting for a trade, so it's not all bad. Looks like it's lentils for dinner tonight



prof....got any theories why the market has just lost an arm and a leg??


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## professor_frink

spitrader1 said:
			
		

> prof....got any theories why the market has just lost an arm and a leg??



none whatsoever  

Fairly decent run though


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## Kauri

Looks like someone has dumped the asx 20 ???


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## professor_frink

My day is getting worse and worse  

I sat around all morning waiting for a good entry and just ended up watching all morning  - finally got a good entry, only to watch the market lose another 12 points after I exited.   

Bugger this,I'm going to the pub for a beer or 10.


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## professor_frink

anyone get a piece of that run down this morning?
Been some monster moves the last couple of days 

How'a the MP going this week Euler? Be interested to hear what your thoughts have been for the last couple of days.


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## professor_frink

wayneL said:
			
		

> Oh Lord have I done that more times than I care to admit to. Funnily enough, they *usually work out OK.
> 
> Maybe there's something instructive in that... hmmmm gonna have to think about that one.
> 
> Cheers



Hello MrL  
This comment got me thinking a bit, I've gone over some of my trades(not all of them yet-will leave that for the weekend), and I think there could be some merit to your comment above. So far, changing the stop order to an order that would stop and reverse positions looks like it would be a net winner.
Although the days when it doesn't work are pretty brutual(mainly because of where I'd have to place stops)- days that chop around would be absolutely devastating)

Will provide more detail when I'm finished


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## spitrader1

professor_frink said:
			
		

> anyone get a piece of that run down this morning?
> Been some monster moves the last couple of days
> 
> How'a the MP going this week Euler? Be interested to hear what your thoughts have been for the last couple of days.



yeah i sold 1 @96, bought back at 85


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## professor_frink

Did I miss some major news or something today  

That was one mighty impressive selloff. Can't say that I've seen this beast selloff from the weekly pivot down to R2 in one day before


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## spitrader1

professor_frink said:
			
		

> Did I miss some major news or something today
> 
> That was one mighty impressive selloff. Can't say that I've seen this beast selloff from the weekly pivot down to R2 in one day before



professor nothing major, but there were some big names ex-div including MBL, ORI and RIN


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## professor_frink

spitrader1 said:
			
		

> professor nothing major, but there were some big names ex-div including MBL, ORI and RIN



Oh ok then. I thought Telstra might have something to do with it, but what would I really know  

I suppose it doesn't really matter in the end.

I'm going to go get that R7 I had my eye on tomorrow


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## Euler

professor_frink said:
			
		

> How'a the MP going this week Euler? Be interested to hear what your thoughts have been for the last couple of days.



Prof .... have focused on getting a handle on MP, hence no posts {also was got tired of posting to myself .. lol .. ie no-one else seemed interested in my ramblings on MP}.  However am very impressed with the POC and bracket values given by MP over the last approx. week.

Mon 13/11 no trades as I still working through it.
Tues 14/11 1 trade for +2 ... ok getting the hang of it.
Wed 15/11 no trades.
Thurs 16/11 1 trade for a very good return.
Fri 17/11 3 trades .... one small return, 2 trades v.good.
Mond 20/11 1 med trade and 1 whopper!!

The issue is whether another method would have produced similar or better results, or whether the market conditions are just right to produce good returns.  Time will tell.

So far I have found MP simple to use, and it has logic supporting the application.  Even at this early stage, and am slowly building on my knowledge, I have a good level of confidence in the application.

The aim is to have a plan that results in a good return for your effort.  If MP works for you then go for it.  If you have another method that works then also go for it.


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## wayneL

professor_frink said:
			
		

> I'm going to go get that R7 I had my eye on tomorrow



R7!   

I must look up what s level the markets went to in 87.

s500? hah!


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## professor_frink

Euler said:
			
		

> Prof .... have focused on getting a handle on MP, hence no posts {also was got tired of posting to myself .. lol .. ie no-one else seemed interested in my ramblings on MP}.  However am very impressed with the POC and bracket values given by MP over the last approx. week.
> 
> Mon 13/11 no trades as I still working through it.
> Tues 14/11 1 trade for +2 ... ok getting the hang of it.
> Wed 15/11 no trades.
> Thurs 16/11 1 trade for a very good return.
> Fri 17/11 3 trades .... one small return, 2 trades v.good.
> Mond 20/11 1 med trade and 1 whopper!!
> 
> The issue is whether another method would have produced similar or better results, or whether the market conditions are just right to produce good returns.  Time will tell.
> 
> So far I have found MP simple to use, and it has logic supporting the application.  Even at this early stage, and am slowly building on my knowledge, I have a good level of confidence in the application.
> 
> The aim is to have a plan that results in a good return for your effort.  If MP works for you then go for it.  If you have another method that works then also go for it.



Good stuff mate- I think that if you were working on setups that required conditions like Thurs, Fri and today to make a profit, then you could be in trouble. I don't think any kind of level trading needs that  
You'll probably get a good idea of how well you can use it when we get some lower ranges intraday.
Glad to hear it's going well for you


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## professor_frink

wayneL said:
			
		

> R7!
> 
> I must look up what s level the markets went to in 87.
> 
> s500? hah!



 

I think the R7 will be quite helpful for days when things just don't quite work 

No better way to work off the anger than to belt the **** out of something!


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## Euler

professor_frink said:
			
		

> You'll probably get a good idea of how well you can use it when we get some lower ranges intraday.



Agree ... and that was my point in relation to my comment ... "The issue is whether another method would have produced similar or better results, or whether the market conditions are just right to produce good returns. Time will tell."


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## wayneL

professor_frink said:
			
		

> I think the R7 will be quite helpful for days when things just don't quite work
> 
> No better way to work off the anger than to belt the **** out of something!



Oh Oh! hahahah! I completely misunderstood.



			
				Winston Churchill said:
			
		

> Golf is a game whose aim is to hit a very small ball into a even smaller hole, with weapons singularly ill-designed for the purpose.




Though even Winnie would admit that the weapons of today less "ill-designed".

Even shanks go further... the wrong way  

Do they come with unbreakable shafts these days


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## spitrader1

wayneL said:
			
		

> Oh Oh! hahahah! I completely misunderstood.
> 
> 
> 
> Though even Winnie would admit that the weapons of today less "ill-designed".
> 
> Even shanks go further... the wrong way
> 
> Do they come with unbreakable shafts these days



no matter how tought the shafts are, somone such as myself after 3 balls dissapear into the lake can still manage to, in a manner that gives significant gratification, snap it around the closest willow.


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## professor_frink

Euler said:
			
		

> Agree ... and that was my point in relation to my comment ... "The issue is whether another method would have produced similar or better results, or whether the market conditions are just right to produce good returns. Time will tell."



I think this probably should determine if you use it long term or not-


> I have a good level of confidence in the application.



IMHO, having methods that you are comfortable with, is probably more important than if it is a star performer or not. Basically any tool could have picked up alot of points the last few days- very few of which I would be comfortable using over any length of time.





			
				WayneL said:
			
		

> Do they come with unbreakable shafts these days



Now that wouldn't be much fun, would it  



			
				spitrader1 said:
			
		

> no matter how tought the shafts are, somone such as myself after 3 balls dissapear into the lake can still manage to, in a manner that gives significant gratification, snap it around the closest willow.



You'd fit in well at any golf game my friends and I played. If it were me, the broken club would be in the lake with the balls


----------



## wayneL

ROTFLMAO.

I see we all speak the same (body) language here.


----------



## Euler

MP POC @5300 entry @ 5310 on 5min chart now trailing stop sitting at 5325.  As I write it is moving higher so t/s will move accordingly.


----------



## professor_frink

Euler said:
			
		

> MP POC @5300 entry @ 5310 on 5min chart now trailing stop sitting at 5325. As I write it is moving higher so t/s will move accordingly.



A point of the opening low- impressive  
I don't think this rally we are having this morning can last(surefire buy signal for everyone else  ).
On the sidelines at the moment.


----------



## Euler

professor_frink said:
			
		

> A point of the opening low- impressive
> I don't think this rally we are having this morning can last(surefire buy signal for everyone else  ).
> On the sidelines at the moment.



Maybe risk was high, but on 5/15 min chart the indication was a move up and given it had taken off the POC it was worth the risk.  Trailing stop now taken out @ 40.

PS .. I'm using chart incl SYCOM data to trade this


----------



## professor_frink

Euler said:
			
		

> Maybe risk was high, but on 5/15 min chart the indication was a move up and given it had taken off the POC it was worth the risk.  Trailing stop now taken out @ 40.
> 
> PS .. I'm using chart incl SYCOM data to trade this



Well done sir!
I think the risk was very high....when I posted. An entry at 5000-5010 like you and I would have been more inclined to take it, but I wasn't really on the ball this morning, and missed an entry at that level  
Think I might come back for a look after lunch


----------



## Euler

professor_frink said:
			
		

> Well done sir!
> I think the risk was very high....when I posted. An entry at 5000-5010 like you and I would have been more inclined to take it, but I wasn't really on the ball this morning, and missed an entry at that level
> Think I might come back for a look after lunch



I did have a stop-loss just below the 5300 level just in case it wanted to kick back .  I was also slow and wanted to get in a little earlier but trigger finger froze.
Now clean till see how it pans out.


----------



## Euler

Out of interest ... calculating the POC with this am price gives POC now @ 5327.  Want to watch how price now reacts around that level.  Part of the learning the A-B-C's for me!!


----------



## professor_frink

Euler said:
			
		

> Out of interest ... calculating the POC with this am price gives POC now @ 5327.  Want to watch how price now reacts around that level.  Part of the learning the A-B-C's for me!!



At what time in the morning do you have that number? Having that by 11am today would have turned out to be quite useful


----------



## Euler

professor_frink said:
			
		

> At what time in the morning do you have that number? Having that by 11am today would have turned out to be quite useful



The figures are calculated on the 30min bar high-low.  So it would have been available 11.01am.  And, today it tested that value on the nose ... and went to hit 60.
I was advised that the intraday POC should not be relied upon until it has "matured" .. ie use it in the after lunch session.  But I'm not sure ... hence the reason for looking to see how it behaves and if it behaves this way reliably.


----------



## professor_frink

Euler said:
			
		

> The figures are calculated on the 30min bar high-low.  So it would have been available 11.01am.  And, today it tested that value on the nose ... and went to hit 60.
> I was advised that the intraday POC should not be relied upon until it has "matured" .. ie use it in the after lunch session.  But I'm not sure ... hence the reason for looking to see how it behaves and if it behaves this way reliably.



Sweet


----------



## Euler

fwiw ... now intraday POC 5330 bracket 5355-5327
.... lol ... use it at your peril!!


----------



## Euler

Didn't take it ... but setup was failed to break VAH in day and intraday, then broke through latest POC @ 59 in the down direction.  Came back to test and gave another opportunity to short around 59, before heading lower.
Setup with a good tight s/l would have worked well, but didn't pull the trigger!!


----------



## hos11au

does anyone know the website address for a spi blog created by a lady named joanne?

cheers
hos


----------



## nat

Hi there this should be it ,she has stopped it i think, was good while it lasted but check it out anyway NAthan

http://localtrader.spaces.live.com/blog/


----------



## nat

Hi there Euler any mp points for today ?How are you working out your points ,with a mp calculator or a proper program ?

Nathan


----------



## Euler

nat said:
			
		

> Hi there Euler any mp points for today ?How are you working out your points ,with a mp calculator or a proper program ?
> Nathan



Today incl. SYCOM data POC 5365  bracket 5344-5374
Using a little proprietary calculator

Price action so far well above the VAH.  Didn't take a position this am.


----------



## Euler

Euler said:
			
		

> Price action so far well above the VAH.  Didn't take a position this am.



Ran away ... wasn't with it!!  May be a sign to take the rest of the day off!!


----------



## nat

Thanx for that, certainly some exuberence this morning, entered on pullback just before ten got a big 3 points then watched market take off, not game to enter again yet. Discipline my biggest problem, pre empting moves and getting out instead of sticking to trailing stop.always another day. Nathan.


----------



## Bearman52

you might try looking at this I assume it is still active although I hav'nt heard much about it for  a long time
www.macleanreport.com
BM


----------



## spitrader1

Bearman52 said:
			
		

> you might try looking at this I assume it is still active although I hav'nt heard much about it for  a long time
> www.macleanreport.com
> BM



anyone got a spi market-im on the road, dont have my brokers no and my pc is playing games


----------



## professor_frink

spitrader1 said:
			
		

> anyone got a spi market-im on the road, dont have my brokers no and my pc is playing games



currently 52-53


----------



## spitrader1

professor_frink said:
			
		

> currently 52-53



professor can i meet you in the chat room-need to ask question about the market


----------



## Edwood

hey chaps, spit referred me over to this thread (thanks for that spit   )   have recently moved to NZ from the UK & planning to get into Aus indices so hoping you all may be willing to shed some local knowledge re: the behaviour of your market!  interested to find out the typical sort of stuff

- any better times of day to be around? e.g., openings, after lunch, when Asia comes on line? and any general comments about those times?0
- any observations re: the impact Dow / SPX have on XAO?
- do you find fib levels and Elliott patterns apply?

obviously I'll be spending time reviewing the action & answering these for myself, but always good to hear others views.

fwiw I mainly use a momentum strategy around a simple moving average supported by a couple of oscillators & a bit of loose Elliott.  aiming to get into the market in the next week or so but just finding my feet & doing some research for the moment.  any comments / advice much appreciated!

cheers, Ed


----------



## professor_frink

> - any better times of day to be around? e.g., openings, after lunch, when Asia comes on line? and any general comments about those times?0



Most days, the opening hour and a half is good fun to trade. Large opening gaps aren't uncommon. You can also get some good moves in the last hour or so. Lunchtimes can be pretty dull though.
In regards to the rest of Asia opening- the nikkei opens about 11am Australian time. I've not noticed enough of an influence to base any trading decisions on it opening. The Hang Seng opens around our lunchtime period, so it doesn't have to be worried about much.


> - any observations re: the impact Dow / SPX have on XAO?



yes it will have an impact on the open. Commodities action is something you will have to watch trading here as well.


> - do you find fib levels and Elliott patterns apply?



Dunno, don't really use them intraday. Have read other comments on the board bout others making calls with them. Have a look at a call made on this thread a few months ago. Others are using them to trade the index, so I suppose you could too  


> fwiw I mainly use a momentum strategy around a simple moving average supported by a couple of oscillators & a bit of loose Elliott. aiming to get into the market in the next week or so but just finding my feet & doing some research for the moment. any comments / advice much appreciated!



momentum is good. We can offer lots of that here 
Hope this helps a bit Ed


----------



## Dutchy3

Sorry for butting in all .... thought I'd post up this one. Going to take an early short position. 5150 could be touched again from here. Dojo day today and relative weakness on the oscilator + the DOW looks like it is due for a rest.


----------



## Edwood

cheers for that Prof, FTSE is quite similar re: the opens, tends to overract to US overnight so the first couple of hours are often good then quiet until US opens & US tends to lead (until it doesn't )

Dow's off 150 today Dutchy - short should be a good call for you!


----------



## wayneL

US whackage!!

Dow -~160

SP500 -~20

Naz  -~42

I was beginning to think we'd never see a decent down day ever again!

Have fun today you index riders


----------



## professor_frink

Edwood said:
			
		

> cheers for that Prof, FTSE is quite similar re: the opens, tends to overract to US overnight so the first couple of hours are often good then quiet until US opens & US tends to lead (until it doesn't )
> 
> Dow's off 150 today Dutchy - short should be a good call for you!



no worries Ed. Good Luck with it all.

Interesting call Dutchy3. A bit more intraday volatility would certainly be around if your call is right, so I'm hoping you are.  



			
				WayneL said:
			
		

> US whackage!!
> 
> Dow -~160
> 
> SP500 -~20
> 
> Naz -~42
> 
> I was beginning to think we'd never see a decent down day ever again!
> 
> Have fun today you index riders



  :dance:


----------



## Edwood

aye its about time alright, perhaps Aus is leading the rest on this move!  i.e., in that it came off a week or so ago & looks to be putting in a lower high.

looking at the 6 month chart I'd like to see XAO confirm a lower high before getting too excited tho


----------



## mit

Market has been going sideways for awhile. I wonder what will happen when the big guys get back from lunch. 

MIT


----------



## professor_frink

mit said:
			
		

> Market has been going sideways for awhile. I wonder what will happen when the big guys get back from lunch.
> 
> MIT



It's been a slightly dull morning hasn't it  
Hopefully we'll get some action this afternoon


----------



## mit

Not Dull when you are long stocks at the moment   . I was pretty balanced long and short a few days ago. Although I was short the S&P500 which was nice.

MIT


----------



## professor_frink

mit said:
			
		

> Not Dull when you are long stocks at the moment   . I was pretty balanced long and short a few days ago. Although I was short the S&P500 which was nice.
> 
> MIT



How's the heart mit- been a wild ride for those long on stocks the last couple of weeks  
Think I'll be more interested today on a break of 87/71(S3/S4). Till then I'll just watch.


----------



## mit

Hearts not so bad. I have been trading the noise rather than position and have been fairly balanced long and short. Today is my fifth negative day all month. Just happened that today I am on the wrong side of the market.

MIT


----------



## Edwood

afternoon chaps - nice little rise early on today - this is the sort of momentum play I'll be looking for on XAO. (first attempt at posting charts here tho so bear with me if its not up first time)







also note we bounced off a 61.8% retrace of the move up from 20th Nov


----------



## professor_frink

Sorry mit, there were storms a brewing my way yesterday, so I got off the computer before I had a chance to reply.

Interesting Charts Ed. Do you use the fib retracements as a stand alone signal, or you wait for them to be confirmed by the others before pulling the trigger?


----------



## Edwood

hi Prof - no just use them as a guide for potential targets & to confirm wave estimates - this move up is quite impulsive so perhaps the correction is over


----------



## professor_frink

Edwood said:
			
		

> hi Prof - no just use them as a guide for potential targets & to confirm wave estimates - this move up is quite impulsive so perhaps the correction is over



Ok then. I've never really looked at them much. Put them up a couple of times, just to see if they line up with pivot points, but end up getting too confused with so many levels on the chart.
This mini correction could be over indeed, although I don't think we'll get much more out of it today-I've got a bit of resistance sitting just above the current action @ 32-35.
That's a signal to go long for everyone else 

edit:that res number is for the spi, not the XAO


----------



## professor_frink

> I've got a bit of resistance sitting just above the current action @ 32-35.
> That's a signal to go long for everyone else



Hope someone faded my call-42 now


----------



## Edwood

apologies for what might sound a stupid question given that this is the SPI traders thread but what's the SPI?     is it an ETF or a futures contract or something based on XAO?  and whats the relationship to XAO - just so's I know what you're talking about - ta

e.g., right now looking at bigcharts (2:55pm) I see 5,421 - whats the SPI at?

edit:  also - sorry to "SPI trader"!! I realise now I called you "Spit" the other day not realising SPI is an instrument!      nice way to make friends hey?!


----------



## professor_frink

Edwood said:
			
		

> apologies for what might sound a stupid question given that this is the SPI traders thread but what's the SPI?     is it an ETF or a futures contract or something based on XAO?  and whats the relationship to XAO - just so's I know what you're talking about - ta
> 
> e.g., right now looking at bigcharts (2:55pm) I see 5,421 - whats the SPI at?



The SPI(Share Price Index) is the futures contract over the XJO, which is the S&P ASX 200 index. The XJO is slightly different to the XAO(the all ordinaries), the exact details of the differences-I'm not 100% sure of. There are more companies included in the XAO compared with the XJO, but dunno the exact differences.
At 2:55pm, the spi was at 5445.
You can get a delayed chart from futuresource  if you want


----------



## Edwood

ah OK - thanks for that Prof!  the cash spreadbet contract I'm looking at is based on ASX200 as well so the underlying might be XJO for all I know - I should ask them I guess.   XAO is probably fine for me for looking up index moves on bigcharts when on the move.

I see futuresource runs a free trial - will check it out - cheers for the info!


----------



## professor_frink

Edwood said:
			
		

> ah OK - thanks for that Prof!  the cash spreadbet contract I'm looking at is based on ASX200 as well so the underlying might be XJO for all I know - I should ask them I guess.   XAO is probably fine for me for looking up index moves on bigcharts when on the move.
> 
> I see futuresource runs a free trial - will check it out - cheers for the info!



no worries mate,happy to help.
It won't really make any difference which one you look at during the day-the XAO and XJO will move the same.


----------



## Bronte

Edwood said:
			
		

> apologies for what might sound a stupid question given that this is the SPI traders thread but *what's the SPI?*   is it an ETF or a futures contract or something based on XAO?  and whats the relationship to XAO - just so's I know what you're talking about - ta!



Hi Edwood, *"Welcome to ASF"*  
This thread may be of interest to you.
The first 2000 posts were deleted by mistake:
https://www.aussiestockforums.com/forums/showthread.php?t=1664


----------



## spitrader1

Bronte said:
			
		

> Hi Edwood, *"Welcome to ASF"*
> This thread may be of interest to you.
> The first 2000 posts were deleted by mistake:
> https://www.aussiestockforums.com/forums/showthread.php?t=1664



edwood, i strongly suggest you DO NOT read this thread. You will get caught up in secret agendas that go back from what i can gather, years. Just so you know, this thread was stripped into two threads, GANN and non GANN. There have been no posts on the GANN thread so read into that what you will. The non gann thread has started to prosper with thoughtful posts from amongst others, professor frink, and euler, and from what I am reading, hopefully yourself.


----------



## spitrader1

Edwood said:
			
		

> apologies for what might sound a stupid question given that this is the SPI traders thread but what's the SPI?     is it an ETF or a futures contract or something based on XAO?  and whats the relationship to XAO - just so's I know what you're talking about - ta
> 
> e.g., right now looking at bigcharts (2:55pm) I see 5,421 - whats the SPI at?
> 
> edit:  also - sorry to "SPI trader"!! I realise now I called you "Spit" the other day not realising SPI is an instrument!      nice way to make friends hey?!



no worries edwood.

also note the spi there is like most indicie contracts both specualtors and hedgers. The spi is the major contract used by the big end of town to hedge major portfolios.


----------



## professor_frink

My dodgy call for res in the 32-35 area yesterday didn't work out too well, but it ended up turning into support, and could have been good for a long after it was tested-if only I had bothered to trade the arvo session


----------



## Euler

professor_frink said:
			
		

> ...... if only I had bothered to trade ...



Been my problem as well { ... so good to hear I'm not the only one!!     }

Yesterday had the POC @ 5372 and tight bracket of 5357-5377 and provided an ideal entry.  Funny thing ... even tho' I feel confident in using the setups, something happens and the brain goes walk-about!!  May be a matter of missing the forest for the trees??

Today VAH sits on 5484 ... and didn't take it!!  Fell through it once .. retested and fell through again, and spi sitting on 74 now.

Maybe I need a break from it!


----------



## professor_frink

Euler said:
			
		

> Been my problem as well { ... so good to hear I'm not the only one!!     }
> 
> Yesterday had the POC @ 5372 and tight bracket of 5357-5377 and provided an ideal entry.  Funny thing ... even tho' I feel confident in using the setups, something happens and the brain goes walk-about!!  May be a matter of missing the forest for the trees??
> 
> Today VAH sits on 5484 ... and didn't take it!!  Fell through it once .. retested and fell through again, and spi sitting on 74 now.
> 
> Maybe I need a break from it!



A week off could help bring the motivation back a bit. Considering you have just researched and are working on implementing a whole new way of looking at the market, you probably need one!


----------



## neo

Hi Folks,
Quick question...
A thing I have been aware about for some time but managed to avoid is the calculation of SPI fair value.
As I understand it the formula is:

ASX200 + [ASX200 x (interest rate x average yield) x days to maturity/365]

My question is ..... where do I find the average yield (of all ASX200 stocks I assume)?........ can't find this figure anywhere!!
Does anyone use this calculation as a useful tool?
Thanks in advance..


----------



## professor_frink

hi neo,
In the trading the spi thread, freddo gives a brief explanation on working out fair value(post#1214) and also has a calculator he used as well(post#1216).
No idea if his way was 100% correct or not(haven't looked into calculating it myself), but it could be a good place to start 

edit: to anyone else reading this, would the STW(asx200 ETF) yield be an accurate way of getting the yield for the market or not?


----------



## RichKid

professor_frink said:
			
		

> The SPI(Share Price Index) is the futures contract over the XJO, which is the S&P ASX 200 index. The XJO is slightly different to the XAO(the all ordinaries), the exact details of the differences-I'm not 100% sure of. There are more companies included in the XAO compared with the XJO, but dunno the exact differences.
> At 2:55pm, the spi was at 5445.
> You can get a delayed chart from futuresource  if you want




From what little I know about these things the XJO (S&P/ASX200) only includes the top 200 stocks by market capitalisation listed on the Australian Stock Exchange, it is a recently created index, only a few years old. 

The XAO is the All Ordinaries Index, it only includes the top 500 stocks by market cap, it has been around for years.

My understanding is that foreign domiciled companies are not included, regardless of liquidity (Eg NWS was removed from the local index but I hear the rules may be changed).

There are other threads on this topic, including references to info pages on the ASX and S&P sites. See here for detailed descriptions (the S&P site): http://www2.standardandpoors.com/servlet/Satellite?pagename=sp/Page/IndicesMainPg&r=7


----------



## Euler

Can anyone comment on how closely the XJO and the SPI follow each other intraday?  So far have been focused on the SPI, and haven't done a comparison.  This may be a weekend project, but am interested in others' views.  For example do you find the XJO leads the SPI or vice versa; does one try and come to meet the other; if so, when does it do this; if you have a system that trades the XJO can you use it {"blindly"} to trade the SPI {... that's not saying you take your eyes off the SPI action and not manage a position}.


----------



## neo

Thanks Prof,
Might need to check again but freddo didn't seem to use average yield in his calculations?????
Prof what is STW(asx200etf)?
The formula I quoted above for fair value was obtained from the ASX website....but that average yield thing has got me stumped!!!!

By the way did anyone get todays move?
I'm bummed out..... short trailing stop hit at 5465 ( market traded there for about 10 seconds) at about 1:15 then market falls another 40 odd points..gotta hate that!!!


----------



## professor_frink

Euler said:
			
		

> Can anyone comment on how closely the XJO and the SPI follow each other intraday?  So far have been focused on the SPI, and haven't done a comparison.  This may be a weekend project, but am interested in others' views.  For example do you find the XJO leads the SPI or vice versa; does one try and come to meet the other; if so, when does it do this; if you have a system that trades the XJO can you use it {"blindly"} to trade the SPI {... that's not saying you take your eyes off the SPI action and not manage a position}.



The charts are normally very similar intraday, although I've found that when you look back at the charts of the 2 and look at the turning points in hindsight, the spi seems to be leading...just.
It's something I'm working on presently, so I don't have too much info on it at the moment.


> Thanks Prof,
> Might need to check again but freddo didn't seem to use average yield in his calculations?????
> Prof what is STW(asx200etf)?
> The formula I quoted above for fair value was obtained from the ASX website....but that average yield thing has got me stumped!!!!
> 
> By the way did anyone get todays move?
> I'm bummed out..... short trailing stop hit at 5465 ( market traded there for about 10 seconds) at about 1:15 then market falls another 40 odd points..gotta hate that!!!



STW is the ticker code for the exchange traded fund that follows the ASX 200(XJO). I think there is some element of speculation to it from what I've read-I think they will do some hedging with options and futures to try and improve the returns slightly, so it's probably not a true index tracking fund. You would be able to find info on it pretty easily from most online brokers.

Not quite sure what freddo was calculating  
If the STW div yield isn't accurate enough, it might be a case of building a bloody huge spreadsheet and manually calculating it. Have fun with that  When your finished, I'll buy the spreadsheet off you for 50 bucks  
Didn't get any of yesterday's move- I took the day off. Yes, my timing is pretty woeful, isn't it 

Unfortunately, I'm all to aware of the feeling you have when you get stopped out on the high of a countertrand move


----------



## Edwood

thanks guys for the comments & SPI for the advice re: threads - have some experience with unusual personalities on UK BB's, best avoided.  more than happy to hang out here for a bit & add my 2p worth from time to time - helpful for me that you all don't mind the occasional question   

having just watched the price action this week the ASX200 looks as tho it should fit in quite nicely for the 'day-job'.  shows some nice swings.


----------



## Euler

professor_frink said:
			
		

> The charts are normally very similar intraday, although I've found that when you look back at the charts of the 2 and look at the turning points in hindsight, the spi seems to be leading...just.
> It's something I'm working on presently, so I don't have too much info on it at the moment.



Prof thanks for your feedback.  It's something that I've wondered about without getting to involved in the analysis.  But started looking at it this w/e and doing a prelim comparison.  As I get my head around it I'll throw a question or three!!


----------



## Euler

An observation on market depth just now .... 252 contracts ask @ 5461 ... have not seen that many at one level before ... ever!  I had gone short @ 65 before i noticed that.


----------



## professor_frink

Euler said:
			
		

> An observation on market depth just now .... 252 contracts ask @ 5461 ... have not seen that many at one level before ... ever!  I had gone short @ 65 before i noticed that.




That's an awful lot for this market! 
I generally try to ignore what the depth is doing- so many orders get pulled before they get hit that it just distracts me from what could be going on.

Getting a lot of action around 52 the last 2 days- you still short Euler?


----------



## Euler

professor_frink said:
			
		

> That's an awful lot for this market!
> I generally try to ignore what the depth is doing- so many orders get pulled before they get hit that it just distracts me from what could be going on.
> 
> Getting a lot of action around 52 the last 2 days- you still short Euler?




I was watching it and it didn't get pulled as they approached it, and a few taken out. When SPI fell below 58 I couldn't see it or anything above it in the queue.
52 was my POC for today with a very tight bracket 45-61.
Covered short @ 56 ... am in very short term trading/scalping mode .... 2 trades today so far ... will check again after lunch break.


----------



## professor_frink

Euler said:
			
		

> I was watching it and it didn't get pulled as they approached it, and a few taken out. When SPI fell below 58 I couldn't see it or anything above it in the queue.
> 52 was my POC for today with a very tight bracket 45-61.
> Covered short @ 56 ... am in very short term trading/scalping mode .... 2 trades today so far ... will check again after lunch break.



These MP levels seem to line up with pivots an awful lot of the time. Today's pivot was at 53. R1 at 71 today, so that one didn't quite line up.
Picked up less than half the move up from PP to R1 this morning, which was hardly ideal, but considering the amount of nurofen I had to take to kill of the headache I had this morning, it prob wasn't a bad result 
It definately looks like it'll be range bound for a fair while today- long lunches are  called for me thinks.


----------



## Euler

MP gave me a very tight range with POC 5454 and bracket 5450-64.
Scalping is my current mode so 2 in-profit small trades already and am currently short 54.  So far can only see very quick small trades.


----------



## Euler

We're at a critical juncture.  If 5410-15 doesn't hold we are in for a slippery ride down to test previous major lows.
Will take a glance or two at the US markets with interest tonight in between a beer or 3!!

Cheers SPI and PROF ... have a few cold ones too ok!!


----------



## Euler

Did you all go long this am?
Well .... am inclined to let the trailing stop do its job now and short this pm!
No signal yet ... but am watching.


----------



## Euler

In a holding pattern .... volume had fallen.... watch for breakout.


----------



## neo

Hi Folks,
Back on the SPI fair value thing........
I realised that comsec publishes on their website the yield for each sector of the asx 200(I presume). They are:
financials 4.6%
materials 3.2%
telcos 3.5%
energy 2.9%
software/services 3.8%
comsumer services/supplies 3.2%
pharm/biotech 1.3%
media 4.0%
consumer staples 2.9%
transport 3.6% 
food/bev/tobacco 3.4%
real estate 6.2%

The average yield of the above is 3.55%.

So SPI fair value is: (from todays close)
asx200 + [asx200x(IR x av. yield) x days to maturity/365]

5469.7 + [5496.7 x 0.0625 x 3.55 x 10/365]
=5303.1

Anyone care to comment?
Does this sound correct?
Have I missed any sectors/ or used the wrong ones?


----------



## Euler

neo said:
			
		

> The average yield of the above is 3.55%.



Don't have enough knowledge to help much but a thought to consider.  Rather than doing an average mean of the sector yields should you not do a weighted average, which will take into account the weighting of each sector in the asx200?  I may be wrong ... so discount it if you have considered it.


----------



## neo

Thanks Euler,
After contemplating all the shortcuts I thought I may as well do an excell spreadsheet of all asx200 stocks and their dividend yield and work it out that way..... it took a while but I worked out that the average yield af all stocks in the asx200 at present is 3.575.

Fair value for the SPI based on todays XJO close (using the above formula) should be 5503.

I also noted that fair value for the SPI can only ever be at a premium to the XJO????????


----------



## neo

oops... made a mistake in my fair value formula.
It should be:
FV= asx200 + [asx200 x (IR - av yld) x days to maturity/365]
Current FV = 5469.7 + [5469.7 x (0.0625-0.03575) x 10/365]
               = 5473.7
Any thoughts?
Is this useful?


----------



## nat

Hi there neo ,ive been following the settlement price on the asx for the xjo..im not sure if it is what you want but may be of interest to follow ,the link is

http://www.asx.com.au/asx/markets/FuturesPricesSearchResults.jsp?DataSet=xjo&State=127

Nathan


----------



## Euler

With the market sitting at the upper bracket value of 88 and no indication of a break either way we sit clean.  On an hourly and 1/2 hrly chart it looks insipid!


----------



## Euler

Euler said:
			
		

> With the market sitting at the upper bracket value of 88 and no indication of a break either way we sit clean.  On an hourly and 1/2 hrly chart it looks insipid!



 .. the giant stirs ... short signal  given @ 84


----------



## Euler

Euler said:
			
		

> .. the giant stirs ... short signal  given @ 84



 .. make sure u use yr trailing stop .. mine set @ 80 as we speak


----------



## Euler

Euler said:
			
		

> .. make sure u use yr trailing stop .. mine set @ 80 as we speak



... taken out ... and looks like it may go lower!!


----------



## Euler

Euler said:
			
		

> ... taken out ... and looks like it may go lower!!



 hmmmmmm .... 2 lessons ....

1. the value of trailing stops to protect yr positions
2. i should pay closer attention to my signals .... was telling me to stop and reverse at 14:43 @ 75.

btw ... i'm still in scalp mode trading so you need to be quick in reading, interpreting and making the trades.  however can be profitable if you catch a few on end, limit any losses (if it looks like turning against you ... get out!!) and you have low brokerage.

PS ... don't follow my trades as they are delayed and you will have little to no time to react.  also ... I may not know what I am doing!!


----------



## professor_frink

What's going on Euler?

Posting all by yourself with no one talking to you  

Gave the spi a miss this arvo- the STW has been going absolutely nuts-


----------



## Euler

professor_frink said:
			
		

> What's going on Euler?
> Posting all by yourself with no one talking to you
> Gave the spi a miss this arvo- the STW has been going absolutely nuts-



lol ... yep ... it's the first sign they say!!      .... its being choppy this arvo .... but picked up 2 scalps ... cheers


----------



## Euler

With a POC 5481 and bracket 5468-83 it was a no-brainer this am.  Ride it as far as it will take you ... trailing stop set @ 93 as i write.


----------



## professor_frink

Euler said:
			
		

> With a POC 5481 and bracket 5468-83 it was a no-brainer this am.  Ride it as far as it will take you ... trailing stop set @ 93 as i write.



You're doing better than me!

Got chopped out twice before catching it this morning  

I'm gone already- covered near yesterday's high to get myself into the black for the morning. Looks like I might have got out pretty close to the top(that would be a rarity!)


----------



## Euler

professor_frink said:
			
		

> You're doing better than me!
> Got chopped out twice before catching it this morning
> I'm gone already- covered near yesterday's high to get myself into the black for the morning. Looks like I might have got out pretty close to the top(that would be a rarity!)



well done .... always a hard thing to do.
in the past I'd close positions too early only to see them run up further.  so for me, using trailing stop locks in good trades and gives me the opportunity to ride it higher if it decides to.


----------



## professor_frink

Euler said:
			
		

> well done .... always a hard thing to do.
> in the past I'd close positions too early only to see them run up further.  so for me, using trailing stop locks in good trades and gives me the opportunity to ride it higher if it decides to.



normally I'd trail a stop, but having made a pretty stupid mistake earlier, I was grateful to be able to book a profit for the morning


----------



## Euler

some big numbers going through ... 485, 185, 181 ... @ around 85.
Can't tell who but possibility could be (more) short covering?
... or smart money going short ... need more info!


----------



## professor_frink

Euler said:
			
		

> some big numbers going through ... 485, 185, 181 ... @ around 85.
> Can't tell who but possibility could be (more) short covering?
> ... or smart money going short ... need more info!



So far, all that's happened is the gap from yesterday's day session high has been closed. Have noticed the volume-last couple of days have seen some pretty big numbers going through in the opening period


----------



## Edwood

afternoon all - hope the trading has been going OK!   not been near a PC for the last couple of weeks, went on a wee roadie around the North Island - Coromandel was a highlight, esp Hahei.  some stunning scenery

this is what I've been looking at today, looking like 5 down to me, currently in 4.  note that if my index value numbers don't tie into your SPI values its because I am looking at UK-based spreadbet figures for ASX200.  but I would guess the general pattern is similar to XJO


----------



## Euler

To all SPI'ers and ASF members have a great Christmas and a prosperous 2007.

.... may the SPI be with you.


----------



## Euler

Euler said:
			
		

> To all SPI'ers and ASF members have a great Christmas and a prosperous 2007.
> 
> .... may the SPI be with you.




and in case you were wondering ......

Dec 06
22nd SFE equity products to close at 2.30pm. Equity products night session to trade as normal. Normal trading hours for all other products.
25th Christmas Day (Non Business Day). SFE Closed.
26th Boxing Day (Non Business Day). SFE closed.
29th SFE equity products to close at 2.30pm. Equity products night session to trade as normal. Normal trading hours for all other products.  
31st New Years Eve (Non Business Day). SFE Closed.
Jan 07
1st New Years Day. SFE Closed (non business day).
2nd New Year Holiday (NZ). SFE normal trading hours.

Just a summary .... check out your contracts and markets for full details at ....

www.sfe.com.au/index.html?content/sfe/trading/schedule.aspx


----------



## spitrader1

Euler said:
			
		

> To all SPI'ers and ASF members have a great Christmas and a prosperous 2007.
> 
> .... may the SPI be with you.



Euler, that sounds very close to someone elses tag i know??? hmmm, you little saying stealer you..


----------



## Euler

spitrader1 said:
			
		

> Euler, that sounds very close to someone elses tag i know??? hmmm, you little saying stealer you..



lol ... didn't mean to ... sorry spi ... if i have plagerised ... very sorry ... although have used it previously ... will refraim ... lol


----------



## spitrader1

Euler said:
			
		

> lol ... didn't mean to ... sorry spi ... if i have plagerised ... very sorry ... although have used it previously ... will refraim ... lol



if it was anyone else id be worried, but considering the integrity and worthiness of your posts please continue sir!!


----------



## professor_frink

Euler said:
			
		

> To all SPI'ers and ASF members have a great Christmas and a prosperous 2007.
> 
> .... may the SPI be with you.




Merry freaking Christmas Gentlemen!

Hope you all have a safe,relaxing and drunken time(I know I will   )

Will be back to talk more nonsense after the new year.

What's that you say Mr Daniels? You want me to drink you? Ok then. I'll go get some ice and a glass :drink:


----------



## Edwood

happy new year gents!  hope you all had a good break.  looks like onwards & upwards for 2007!


----------



## Edwood

altho we have a bit of divergence showing up now


----------



## Bronte

Hi Edwood,
Interesting chart...thanx  

Nice SPI Gap open this morning.
44 point Premium....


----------



## Bronte

Bronte said:
			
		

> Hi Edwood,
> Interesting chart...thanx
> Nice SPI Gap open this morning.
> 44 point Premium....



This AM SPI chart:


----------



## spitrader1

Bronte said:
			
		

> This AM SPI chart:



bronte, im happy for you to tell me otherwise, but dont you use your own interpretation of gann??


----------



## doctorj

Please make sure this topic stays on track and Gann-free.


----------



## Edwood

ah yes, nice gap fill Bronte - didn't even look for that.  selling spike you reckoning?

edit: its also dropped out of that ascending wedge


----------



## sails

spitrader1 said:
			
		

> bronte, im happy for you to tell me otherwise, but dont you use your own interpretation of gann??



Funny thing is, I think this is the first time the objectionable g*** word has been mentioned on this thread -  really hope you're not trying to stir it all up again!

Poor old G*** - must be turning in his grave at all this discrimination against his methods.  I understand he is honoured at the NYSE...

Problem is that some of the generally accepted T/A techniques at ASF hold similarities with g*** methods.  Are they evil too?  EW has some similarities - does that mean that anyone using T/A that could be interpreted also as g*** should not post here?  

Surely, provided no-one doesn't mention the g*** word - they should be left in peace?


----------



## wayneL

An invitation for discussion of Gann techniques here: https://www.aussiestockforums.com/forums/showthread.php?t=4875

Thanks


----------



## sails

wayneL said:
			
		

> An invitation for discussion of Gann techniques here: https://www.aussiestockforums.com/forums/showthread.php?t=4875
> 
> Thanks



No worries - however I did not initiate the subject on this thread - just didn't want spitrader provoking the issue again


----------



## professor_frink

Howdy folks, hope everyone had a good christmas  

Hey Ed, what timeframe was that chart you posted this morning? Would have been a great short on a break of that wedge you posted.

Was a good day to get back into the swing of things- gap open at R2, above yesterday's high. Nice friendly way to start the year


----------



## Edwood

hi Prof, twas a 1 month 60 min chart.  yeah it was a nice set up, didn't trade it tho, getting my feet back under the desk & getting used to watching a market each day again as I've been out since Sept.  gotta say its good to be back!


----------



## professor_frink

Edwood said:
			
		

> hi Prof, twas a 1 month 60 min chart.  yeah it was a nice set up, didn't trade it tho, getting my feet back under the desk & getting used to watching a market each day again as I've been out since Sept.  gotta say its good to be back!



Cheers Ed  
yep, it's good to be trading again :dance:


----------



## Edwood

aye it'll be better tho when I've actually pulled the trigger!   

quick question - I see theres lots of 'out of hours' action given your 24 hour trading with SPI - do you guys get involved in this or tend to stick to '9-to-5'

cheers

edit:  reason I ask is there looks to be some good moves out of hours


----------



## professor_frink

Edwood said:
			
		

> aye it'll be better tho when I've actually pulled the trigger!
> 
> quick question - I see theres lots of 'out of hours' action given your 24 hour trading with SPI - do you guys get involved in this or tend to stick to '9-to-5'
> 
> cheers
> 
> edit:  reason I ask is there looks to be some good moves out of hours



I stick to regular business hours myself- she's pretty thinly traded after hours. Back in the old thread, Freddo would have orders going off after hours, but he was more of a swing trader. Currently the spread is out to 3 pts already(54/57) and there is only 1 contract offered on either side.

If you are interested in getting some action at this time of the day, the Hang Seng is still open in our region.


----------



## Edwood

good point Prof, I didn't think of Asia!    I don't look at volume as have always participated in hours.  will have to when I move to direct access I spose.  so that would explain why Aus execution with CMC is apparently v. slow out of hours...

there's also UK and Dax for the evening - Dax can be entertaining.  alrightee off for dinner now, catch you tomorrow

Ed


----------



## wayneL

sails said:
			
		

> No worries - however I did not initiate the subject on this thread - just didn't want spitrader provoking the issue again




Margaret,

My post was not directed at you, or anyone in fact. Just a reminder that we have a Gann/SPI thread that is feeling very unloved because nobody is using it  

...and it's best to keep the two camps apart   

Cheers


----------



## Edwood

morning all - good range on the US overnight & Vix up, might see some volatility altho sitting on 3 month support so a break could be good for shorts


----------



## professor_frink

Edwood said:
			
		

> morning all - good range on the US overnight & Vix up, might see some volatility altho sitting on 3 month support so a break could be good for shorts



morning Ed, looks like I've missed out- have a weekly pivot at 5607, which the market just missed this morning before it bounced. I probably shouldn't have waited for a test, but oh well, there's always another trade just round the corner


----------



## Edwood

aye market will always be there tomorrow - have learned not to get phased by missing a move


----------



## Edwood

fwiw this is the line I'm watching


----------



## professor_frink

Interesting chart Ed.

This is a daily for the futs.

Love looking for moves off monthly pivots when looking at daily charts- for this month, there is the monthly pivot at 5573, which also conincides(sp??) with a recent trendline- for the up trend to continue, I'd be looking for a bounce off the area where I've stuck the yellow circle(and we are getting close to that area today  )


----------



## Edwood

ahh I see - and if that goes then I guess you're looking for S1?


----------



## professor_frink

Edwood said:
			
		

> ahh I see - and if that goes then I guess you're looking for S1?



Generally, that's where I'd be looking for the market to move to. Because I'm daytrading, it doesn't really matter that much, until one of them comes into play during the day- they can be very good for looking for entries or profit targets intraday.


----------



## professor_frink

I'm done for the morning- would have been a lot better if the opening move had of bounced of the weekly pivot, but it'll do.

Will be back for round 2 bout 2pm. Gunna fire the tv up for some cricket. Enjoy your morning Ed


----------



## Edwood

ok - so I guess you use dailys around the monthlys but you'd give more weight to the monthlys?  (you don't need to reply if thats right)  obviously I've not used pivots hence the q's   

would you be willing to stick the significant pivots up every now & then so's I can see for myself how the market reacts to them?  no worries if you carn't be arsed


----------



## Edwood

cheers - catch you later


----------



## professor_frink

Edwood said:
			
		

> ok - so I guess you use dailys around the monthlys but you'd give more weight to the monthlys?  (you don't need to reply if thats right)  obviously I've not used pivots hence the q's



It all depends. Generally, I'd say yes. Daily pivots still play a big part, especially on gap openings. Generally, a gap up/down to R2/S2 is a good reliable gap fade(that's what we had yesterday on the open), R1/S1 not quite as reliable. However, I'd be more inclined to fade a gap open to ANY weekly/monthly pivot(but you don't see that happen very often).

Clusters of different levels together can also help a bit for deciding which levels are going to come into play during the day as well. The chart I posted yesterday had a couple of cluster areas- the previous H,L,C lined up with the daily R1,PP and S1, which in my slighly warped mind, means that it's more likely that more people are looking at these general areas. For today, there was 2 clusters of levels- yesterday's close and the weekly PP were right next to each other(which haven't come into play at all), and there was a weekly and monthly pivot close to each other as well, which is where we finished up today.



			
				Edwood said:
			
		

> would you be willing to stick the significant pivots up every now & then so's I can see for myself how the market reacts to them? no worries if you carn't be arsed



Not a problem. Here's today's chart- I've circled the 2 areas on today's chart that I was talking about-the blue+yellow lines are yesterday's close and the weekly pivot. In the 2nd circle, the green line is weekly S2, and the line just below it is the monthly pivot I mentioned earlier this morning when I posted the daily chart.


----------



## professor_frink

And here we have the daily chart, updated with today's data.

We've come to an important area. Will be interesting to see if we rally from here or not.


----------



## Edwood

cheers for the charts Prof, looks like I'll have to get onto pivots given the way that monthly has been hit     catch you tomorrow


----------



## Edwood

just for interest - a bit of divergence showing again so keeping an eye open for long opportunities






also we bounced at a 50% retrace of the Dec 8th low to 2nd Jan high

(my daughter wants me to stick this smilie in  )


----------



## Edwood

longer term we've come back to touch the trend line so longs could be short lived


----------



## professor_frink

morning Ed,

Interesting analysis. From my POV, we had a gap down this morning below yesterday's low, and a big gap from the O/N session at S1. It held after a test, and ran up to a weekly pivot before it stalled.

There was a big cluster of levels in the 68-75 area, that did absolutely nothing to stop that freight train of a rally.... it paused for about a minute before carrying on it's merry way up.






On the daily, we've had a failed attempt at breaking the trendline, with price back above the monthly pivot, and back inside the short term trendline






Hope you enjoy your weekend, I have to go shopping with Mrs Frink today.

I don't really care for shopping much


----------



## Edwood

ah yes, you know I wondered about that when I posted that 4 hr Bronte but didn't check it - well spotted!

we might just run up the bottom of the trend line for a bit now - I have 5630 on the above chart as my line in the sand, above that & we're off to the races again!


----------



## Edwood

> I don't really care for shopping much




Hi Prof!  yor not alone, I reckon its a bloke thing    browsing I don't like, you have to have a purpose eh

edited:  seems happy to linger around the congestion point you flagged Prof.  if you're off now have a good w/end too


----------



## Bronte

Edwood said:
			
		

> ah yes, you know I wondered about that when I posted that 4 hr Bronte but didn't check it - well spotted!



Double Bottom with:
19th December 2006 (5546 March'07 Contract)

38% Fibonacci Retracement (Big Picture) 

Also on one of our 'Timeframe days'

Thank you


----------



## Edwood

> Also on one of our 'Timeframe days'




haven't ever done the time thing Bronte - I know others who use it as a guide but don't know anyone wot trades using it

stupid question but how do I do that 'Originally posted by' bit?


----------



## professor_frink

Edwood said:
			
		

> Hi Prof!  yor not alone, I reckon its a bloke thing    browsing I don't like, you have to have a purpose eh
> 
> edited:  seems happy to linger around the congestion point you flagged Prof.  if you're off now have a good w/end too



You've nailed it there Ed. Browsing is just wrong. I'd rather be watching the cricket.  



			
				Edwood said:
			
		

> stupid question but how do I do that 'Originally posted by' bit?




Hit the 'quote' button on the bottom right hand corner of a post and it will send you to the reply screen, but include their post as well.

Enjoy your weekend folks


----------



## Edwood

professor_frink said:
			
		

> You've nailed it there Ed. Browsing is just wrong. I'd rather be watching the cricket.
> 
> 
> 
> Hit the 'quote' button on the bottom right hand corner of a post and it will send you to the reply screen, but include their post as well.
> 
> Enjoy your weekend folks




ta da!  cheers mate, have a good one (hope England win btw, they don't deserve to be up there with the worst imo)


----------



## Bronte

Bronte said:
			
		

> *Double Bottom with:*
> 19th December 2006 (5546 March'07 Contract)
> 
> 38% Fibonacci Retracement (Big Picture)
> 
> Also on one of our 'Timeframe days'
> 
> Thank you



You too prof. 
Go England.  
SPI chart showing one day swing Double Bottom:


----------



## Bronte

'GAP' Open  
Approx.40 point 'Discount'
We always take these trades....
See original closed 'Trading the SPI' thread:
https://www.aussiestockforums.com/forums/showthread.php?t=1664
Double Bottom & 38% Fibonacci.
50% Retrace (Thanks Edwood)
Plus professor's Support lines


----------



## Edwood

nice one Bronte!  thanks for flagging that.  out of interest, did you enter on the failed retest of the opening spike, or just get in straight away aiming for the gap fill?

edit:  you've reminded me that I need to have a 5 min candle chart running alongside my line chart - so ta v. much!  fwiw this is what I was looking at line-chart wise


----------



## Bronte

Edwood said:
			
		

> nice one Bronte!  thanks for flagging that.  out of interest, did you enter on the failed retest of the opening spike, or just get in straight away aiming for the gap fill?



Bought the Open today Edwood   
Pre Open order:  Buy 5556 LMT  
5552 05/01/2007 06:40:03 AM
Plenty of Support here today.


----------



## Edwood

well done B!  yeah lots of support here on lots of timeframes


----------



## professor_frink

Looks like I missed out on some fun to the short side after going out yesterday. Oh well.
Here's the updated daily chart- it's looking very weak, and with the o/s action last night pushing the market lower, we could be in for a run down and test of the next monthly pivot over the next few trading sessions, which currently sits at 5458. Even if it doesn't make it that far, I don't care. The current volatility is freakin great for trading at the moment


----------



## Euler

Good morning and good trading in 2007 fellow spi'ers.
Does anyone have reliable SYCOM data for Friday night (O,H,L,C) ... mine are suspect!!


----------



## neo

Hi Euler,
O 5559
H 5560
L 5476
C 5509
If I miss any previous day/overnight data I check the Brokerone website under overnight price summary. Seems to be updated before 9am ish. Hope that helps.
Regards..


----------



## Euler

neo said:
			
		

> Hi Euler,
> O 5559
> H 5560
> L 5476
> C 5509
> If I miss any previous day/overnight data I check the Brokerone website under overnight price summary. Seems to be updated before 9am ish. Hope that helps.
> Regards..



Cheers neo, i had conflicting data and wasn't sure which was correct.


----------



## Edwood

afternoon chaps.  impulsive this morning and corrective this afternoon so perhaps more upside to come...

am guessing mondays are a bit quiet in Aus due to the weekend effect i.e., no US / European influences - is that a fair comment?


----------



## Edwood

oops!  went out to the shops & missed the move - not to worry...


----------



## professor_frink

Howdy Euler, good to see you back, hope you had a good break  

On the sidelines this morning- couldn't get a low risk entry for a long. A bit disappointed with that, as it's moved a fair bit 
R2 @ 65, and the monthly pivot @ 73, so will be looking for a bit of action of one of those levels if touched.

edit: I know you like looking at fib retracements Ed, the 38.2% retracement level  from the recent run down lines up with the monthly pivot point. Could be a good level to watch out for today


----------



## Euler

professor_frink said:
			
		

> Howdy Euler, good to see you back, hope you had a good break
> 
> On the sidelines this morning- couldn't get a low risk entry for a long. A bit disappointed with that, as it's moved a fair bit
> R2 @ 65, and the monthly pivot @ 73, so will be looking for a bit of action of one of those levels if touched.
> 
> edit: I know you like looking at fib retracements Ed, the 38.2% retracement level  from the recent run down lines up with the monthly pivot point. Could be a good level to watch out for today



Hi and thanks prof ...was a good break  but good to be back.
Yesterday on the sidelines, blowing the cobwebs away, and today slow to react.  With the text book open and up breakout for POC 5515 and range 5525-00, it was there.  Let's how it pans out now.


----------



## Edwood

hey guys - this is what I have up Prof - looks like my spreadbet quote is 9pts adrift of SPI atm

are you doing market profile there Euler?


----------



## Euler

Edwood said:
			
		

> hey guys - this is what I have up Prof - looks like my spreadbet quote is 9pts adrift of SPI atm
> 
> are you doing market profile there Euler?



Ed that's correct.  On open, if I read it correctly and  can get on early enough it is based on MP.  I watch for setups based on MP through the course of the day (morning and after-lunch session).  If it becomes range bound, then I go into short term scalp mode if and as the setups present.


----------



## professor_frink

God I hate mornings like this-
Couldn't find a good play on the opening gap, so the morning mini trend following system got fired up and has been chopped around, so after the market had a good run, I'm down for the day  
Gunna have to fire up the arvo system today to see if I can restore some order in professor land


----------



## Edwood

Euler said:
			
		

> Ed that's correct.  On open, if I read it correctly and  can get on early enough it is based on MP.  I watch for setups based on MP through the course of the day (morning and after-lunch session).  If it becomes range bound, then I go into short term scalp mode if and as the setups present.




ah ok - interesting.  do you have to use custom software for MP?  and do you find it helps more for short term (i.e. intra-day) or swings?  (sorry about all the questions...    )


----------



## Edwood

bummer Prof - we might be looking at a bull flag atm tho


----------



## professor_frink

Edwood said:
			
		

> bummer Prof - we might be looking at a bull flag atm tho



Yeah it sucks  
At least I kept myself out of some of the chop, so it could have been worse


----------



## Edwood

just of out of interest here's a couple of different fib views of the current state showing retracement & extension


----------



## Euler

Edwood said:
			
		

> ah ok - interesting.  do you have to use custom software for MP?  and do you find it helps more for short term (i.e. intra-day) or swings?  (sorry about all the questions...    )



Ed, I am finding that it works best on breakouts like we experienced this morning, and is suitable for intra-day and longer term time-frames.  It can give ranges to work with very close to pivot points, which I keep an eye on as well, but I find that it gives one the opportunity to trade the value ranges or breakouts from these ranges on moves to the next level.
I followed up a number of leads on suitable software to use, but found many that I had no confidence in.  I currently work out my own POC and range.  There is a lot of information available to study the subject on the net.  From what I have seen so far, the rolls-royce of proprietary software appears to be esignal.  I don't use them and am not making any recommendations, so do your own research.  I have been tempted to subscribe but in my current phase I am doing ok with what i have, so i think I'll apply KISS principle.


----------



## professor_frink

what are you using to get your levels at the moment Euler?


----------



## Euler

professor_frink said:
			
		

> what are you using to get your levels at the moment Euler?



Unless yr prepared to go and pay a premium for the integrated software, I'm afraid the rest I know are painful manual systems.  All data (high-low range, for 30min bars) has to be entered either as you go or at the end of the trading period.  And this is for both the SFE and SYCOM session.
Here is a link to one ....
http://www.pivotprofits.com/Tools/TPOChart/tabid/108/Default.aspx


----------



## professor_frink

Euler said:
			
		

> Unless yr prepared to go and pay a premium for the integrated software, I'm afraid the rest I know are painful manual systems.  All data (high-low range, for 30min bars) has to be entered either as you go or at the end of the trading period.  And this is for both the SFE and SYCOM session.
> Here is a link to one ....
> http://www.pivotprofits.com/Tools/TPOChart/tabid/108/Default.aspx



cheers mate


----------



## Edwood

interesting stuff Euler - reminds me a bit of candles, esp the idea of buying tails & selling tails, sort of like hammers, while MP trend days look like they would print long candles

looks we've managed to grind it up to the pivot Prof - and hugging the underside of the trendline on the daily chart.  Dow tried to hook back up into its daily support line this morning, wonder if ASX can manage it...

Edit:  on the longer view the red line is my line in the sand, if we can get above that we could be off again


----------



## professor_frink

Euler, your PM box is full


----------



## Euler

professor_frink said:
			
		

> Euler, your PM box is full



Prof .. fixed .. ok now


----------



## Pager

Looking for the breakout this morning

Buy 5561, Sell 5553.


----------



## Euler

Have POC 5583 and range 86-50.  With a great run yesterday and a mixed bag in US, it may give back some of yesterday's gains.  Will look keenly at shorts.


----------



## Pager

Short at 5553, stop 5561,


----------



## Pager

Stopped out and know long at 5561, stop at 5551.

Could be a choppy day with no direction.

10-07am stop up to 5557


----------



## Edwood

waiting here for a clearer move either way... ideally up


----------



## Euler

Pager said:
			
		

> Stopped out and know long at 5561, stop at 5551.
> 
> Could be a choppy day with no direction.
> 
> 10-07am stop up to 5557



Pager ... could still be on .. the short ... just watch a little longer ... resources are down ... banks holding


----------



## Pager

Stop up to entry at 5561, currently 64

10-17am stop up to 5564, currently 5567


----------



## Pager

Out at 5564, looking for a short below 5557.

Looks like no direction, so far today 2 trades for -8 and + 3.


----------



## Euler

Yep ... Currently no direction with slight down bias.  Resources down but banks just holding on.


----------



## Pager

Short again at 5557, stop at 5561.

10-44, stop to breakeven at 5557.


----------



## Pager

Out at 5551 for + 6 points.

looks like a choppy choppy day, 3 trades for for a whopping 1 point gain  

Im done for the day, good luck to everyone else posting or watching.  

The time stamp on this thread/forum is not correct ????, its currently 10-50am ?.


----------



## Euler

Pager said:
			
		

> Out at 5551 for + 6 points.
> looks like a choppy choppy day, 3 trades for for a whopping 1 point gain



Well done ... too choppy for me right now.


			
				Pager said:
			
		

> The time stamp on this thread/forum is not correct ????, its currently 10-50am ?.



I noticed its about 5 min out   ... ie it's 5 min ahead!


----------



## Edwood

frustrating stuff - looks as tho it wants to break but unsure so best to be out


----------



## Edwood

out of interest what sort of spread do you guys see on direct access?  I get a fixed 2 points on a spreadbet but with skew taken into account can be wider


----------



## Edwood

good to get some direction, short with trailing stop, now +14


----------



## Pager

Edwood said:
			
		

> out of interest what sort of spread do you guys see on direct access?  I get a fixed 2 points on a spreadbet but with skew taken into account can be wider




Spreads on the SFE are usually only 1 point, as in bid 5524, offer 5525, what is spreadbet ?.

Well done on the 14 points, i missed the directional move down   , as i had to get back to my day job.

Cheers

Pager


----------



## Edwood

Pager said:
			
		

> Spreads on the SFE are usually only 1 point, as in bid 5524, offer 5525, what is spreadbet ?.
> 
> Well done on the 14 points, i missed the directional move down   , as i had to get back to my day job.
> 
> Cheers
> 
> Pager




thanks Pager, sorry to hear you're back at work :-(  

yeah it was forming a sort of symmetrical triangle and was going to break one way or another

the guys in the UK who use are on direct access get between 0.5 and 1.5 spread on FTSE depending on the market, so I was just interested to know what its like over here on direct access (I may go that route in future).

a spreadbet is a tax-free way of trading in the UK - classified as gambling so profits (& losses!) are non-taxable, but also means the spreadbet co's aren't bound by the exchange prices, they make their own market which sux sometimes.  its a lot like CFD's but CFD's in the UK are taxable & tend to be closer to market prices.  you don't get dividends on spreadbets tho.  the price action is very similar to futures.


----------



## Euler

Edwood said:
			
		

> out of interest what sort of spread do you guys see on direct access?  I get a fixed 2 points on a spreadbet but with skew taken into account can be wider



Normally 1 point on consistent basis in day session.  On occassions see 2 points but doesn't last too long ... and few times can stretch out to 4-5 points, but lasts even less.  On SYCOM it's a different matter!
Who is yr broker?
Have never liked market makers who set their own prices ... always in their favour!  So it may not be costing you 2 points ..... real cost may be 3+ point each leg.


----------



## Edwood

Euler said:
			
		

> Who is yr broker?




CMC Markets



			
				Euler said:
			
		

> Have never liked market makers who set their own prices ... always in their favour!  So it may not be costing you 2 points ..... real cost may be 3+ point each leg.




yeah thats just the way it is with spreadbets.  some offer 1pt but they close you down once you start making consistent profits, or switch you to phone dealing only.  the spread makes scalping difficult so I try to play the swings & trend moves


----------



## Edwood

I guess if I post my position I should say that I've now closed for +13.  Reason for the pause perhaps...


----------



## Euler

Edwood said:
			
		

> CMC Markets
> yeah thats just the way it is with spreadbets.  some offer 1pt but they close you down once you start making consistent profits, or switch you to phone dealing only.  the spread makes scalping difficult so I try to play the swings & trend moves



Thx Ed ... and good luck ... make 'em pay!!


----------



## Pager

Back online for the close   

Looking for an opportunity to sell at around 5515/16, on the buy side nothing doing unless we get down to 5500 in the next 5 mins.

Currently 5510, so no opportunitys standing out


----------



## Pager

Short at 5514, looking for a close around 5506, stop is at 5518


----------



## Edwood

Euler said:
			
		

> Thx Ed ... and good luck ... make 'em pay!!




cheers Euler, will do my best!   

looks like I closed too soon unfortunately, but got the nieces & nephews over today so trying to trade & entertain & its raining so its been a funny old day!


----------



## Pager

Out at 5515 as it closed for - 1 point   .


----------



## Euler

5518, 48-02 .... sitting on VAH ... a break will be long


----------



## professor_frink

morning folks,

we had a gap open at resistance-good opportunity for a gap fade. Unfortunately, my sell order @ 56 didn't get hit  

Anyway, looking for it to move back towards the 5530 area


----------



## professor_frink

Euler said:
			
		

> 5518, 48-02 .... sitting on VAH ... a break will be long



morning Euler,
could the break to the short side and subsequent test be a candidate for a short?


----------



## Euler

professor_frink said:
			
		

> morning Euler,
> could the break to the short side and subsequent test be a candidate for a short?



Hi Prof,
price is too far from the POC so don't favour a short atm.  Value is sitting at the high end of the range.  Am watching for a break, but she's in irons!

Another slant ... support at 40 level and is holding ... possible looking to initially test 60.


----------



## professor_frink

Euler said:
			
		

> Hi Prof,
> price is too far from the POC so don't favour a short atm.  Value is sitting at the high end of the range.  Am watching for a break, but she's in irons!
> 
> Another slant ... support at 40 level and is holding ... possible looking to initially test 60.



So it's kind of similar to yesterday, but in reverse  If you get a move like yesterday's, you'll be doing pretty well  

Not up with the proper way to use it at the moment, but I'm starting to like the levels it spits out for each day.


----------



## Euler

professor_frink said:
			
		

> So it's kind of similar to yesterday, but in reverse  If you get a move like yesterday's, you'll be doing pretty well
> 
> Not up with the proper way to use it at the moment, but I'm starting to like the levels it spits out for each day.



yes exactly ... I'm looking at intraday as well as i write ... although not mature ... just sit

PS .. i wish i could overlay days!!

PPS ... maybe i should do a running weekly?? .... thinking out aloud!!


----------



## Euler

professor_frink said:
			
		

> morning Euler,
> could the break to the short side and subsequent test be a candidate for a short?



Prof, she's testing yr call.  Could be on ... but it's playing atm


----------



## professor_frink

Euler said:
			
		

> Prof, she's testing yr call.  Could be on ... but it's playing atm



It's very,very,very slowly heading south. Have to admit, if I had of got my sell filled on the opening, I'd probably have closed it out by now out of sheer boredom


----------



## professor_frink

Euler said:
			
		

> yes exactly ... I'm looking at intraday as well as i write ... although not mature ... just sit
> 
> PS .. i wish i could overlay days!!
> 
> PPS ... maybe i should do a running weekly?? .... thinking out aloud!!



I've heard of people plotting 3 and 5 day levels before, maybe it's something to look into


----------



## Euler

professor_frink said:
			
		

> I've heard of people plotting 3 and 5 day levels before, maybe it's something to look into



yes ... may do a 5 day .... as another code .. but the blasted work!!
Good call on the short ... hope u took advantage ... i was clean.


----------



## professor_frink

Euler said:
			
		

> yes ... may do a 5 day .... as another code .. but the blasted work!!
> Good cal on the short ... hope u took advantage ... i was clean.



would have been alot better if I was filled on the first order  .
Still did alright though


----------



## Edwood

good call on the short Prof   

looks like we might get a decent move soon enough


----------



## professor_frink

Edwood said:
			
		

> good call on the short Prof
> 
> looks like we might get a decent move soon enough



Cheers Ed.
A break of that support would be fun


----------



## Edwood

yeah a break either way would be fine with me


----------



## Edwood

well that impulsive move down this morning must've been a C not a 3 so we should be heading higher now - looking at the base of the triangle we are possibly looking at a 200pt move


----------



## Edwood

gotta go out, orders in with stops - good luck all


----------



## professor_frink

Edwood said:
			
		

> well that impulsive move down this morning must've been a C not a 3 so we should be heading higher now - looking at the base of the triangle we are possibly looking at a 200pt move



So, did you get long?
Just got the call for a game of golf, so no trading for me


----------



## Edwood

professor_frink said:
			
		

> So, did you get long?
> Just got the call for a game of golf, so no trading for me




yep, stop into profit now, currently +14.  doesn't look like I missed a lot tho - sun is finally shining over here so its nice to get some of it!!

climate is weird tho hey - you guys have a massive drought & fires and we have ice-bergs floating off the coast (first time since 1920's) & the coldest Dec on record


----------



## Edwood

fib extension to 423.6 on the button


----------



## Edwood

that looks like 5 up complete so out now, potential for a retrace back to 5,540 area


----------



## Edwood

oops - should've reversed instead of closing, not to worry.  some nice action today


----------



## Euler

Anyone riding this bucking horse ... tried to get on a couple of times but shakes me off before I hit the saddle!!


----------



## Edwood

not yet, 5,600 was 423% extension of wave 1, should've grabbed it but was getting a sandwich


----------



## Bronte

Euler said:
			
		

> Anyone riding this bucking horse ... tried to get on a couple of times but shakes me off before I hit the saddle!!



Hi guys,  

First trade of the day....

Sold Open 5600 12/01/2007 09:49:30
Bought back 5586 12/01/2007 09:51:10

Have to be pleased with that


----------



## Bronte

Edwood said:
			
		

> not yet, 5,600 was 423% extension of wave 1, should've grabbed it but was getting a sandwich



5600 was also a 50% Retracement Edwood


----------



## Edwood

nice work B!  rest of the day off now then is it?


----------



## Edwood

Bronte said:
			
		

> 5600 was also a 50% Retracement Edwood




ah, so it was, missed that.  question now is whether or not we are still correcting or its onwards & upwards.  I have the 5,630 area is important, beyond that & imo its new all time highs


----------



## Edwood

no signals for me yet, we're on the 1day so waiting for a clear break either way, would have preferred a deeper retrace but looks like a bullish penant forming now, target 5,615 area if it goes - dyor of course!


----------



## professor_frink

morning Ed,Bronte,
2nd day in a row for me- wanted to sell if given the opportunity, but the planets didn't quite line up. 5606/8 was a screming sell, but didn't open there. By the time it hit the next level of resistance the move was pretty well over, so I'm starting my weekend early


----------



## Edwood

professor_frink said:
			
		

> morning Ed,Bronte,
> 5606/8 was a screming sell, but didn't open there. By the time it hit the next level of resistance the move was pretty well over, so I'm starting my weekend early




hi Prof - out of interest was 5,608 a pivot or something?

have a good weekend!


----------



## professor_frink

Edwood said:
			
		

> hi Prof - out of interest was 5,608 a pivot or something?
> 
> have a good weekend!



Yes sir it was.
5608 was the daily R3, 5606 was the weekly pivot. The night session closed at about 5687, so there was a gap up from both day and night sessions, and with the cash market down below 5560 we were trading at a pretty big premium. All signs pointed to a move down on open, it just didn't quite open close enough to one of my levels, so I didn't trade.

Hope you have a good weekend too Ed


----------



## Edwood

professor_frink said:
			
		

> Yes sir it was.
> 5608 was the daily R3, 5606 was the weekly pivot. The night session closed at about 5687, so there was a gap up from both day and night sessions, and with the cash market down below 5560 we were trading at a pretty big premium. All signs pointed to a move down on open, it just didn't quite open close enough to one of my levels, so I didn't trade.
> 
> Hope you have a good weekend too Ed




ah ok, would've made a nice short at the open then if hit.

thanks mate, you too.  my b.day tomorrow so we're off for a picnic, altho might trade Dow first thing in the morning (unless the missus has plans for me of course)


----------



## professor_frink

Edwood said:
			
		

> ah ok, would've made a nice short at the open then if hit.
> 
> thanks mate, you too.  my b.day tomorrow so we're off for a picnic, altho might trade Dow first thing in the morning (unless the missus has plans for me of course)



Happy Birthday Ed  
Yeah, I'd skip the Dow tomorrow


----------



## Edwood

thanks Prof - looks like you've done the right thing taking the day off, not much happening here!


----------



## Edwood

whats happening on the futures front guys? i.e., any volume goign through at all?


----------



## Edwood

finally it moves - thank gawd!  right thats me done for the week, good weekend all


----------



## Edwood

afternoon - seems happy to keep on grinding up, working out any short interest left over from the recent correction.  not far to new all time highs


----------



## professor_frink

Edwood said:
			
		

> afternoon - seems happy to keep on grinding up, working out any short interest left over from the recent correction.  not far to new all time highs



afternoon Ed, hope your birthday went well  

Euler what were your MP levels today? By my calcs, I had 5620 as the VAH, today, whaich just happened to be today's low  Hope you got some of it  

Spent most of my time working on a few little things today, so didn't trade-trying to fix up some of the coding for my indicators- they disappear off my screen after lunch if I've zoomed in too close on the action


----------



## Euler

professor_frink said:
			
		

> Euler what were your MP levels today? By my calcs, I had 5620 as the VAH, today, whaich just happened to be today's low  Hope you got some of it  (



Hi guys ... was in town all day today so missed all of it.  POC was 5610 and Range 5617-5593.  Yes it was a nice bounce off the VAH zone.
Prof, I decided to look at the raw data/graph and noticed that the Range could just as easily have been 5620-5591, but it gave me the narrower band.


----------



## Euler

Anyone know what wrong @ SFE?  Can't get any data for yesterday or overnight.  Is anyone else having the problem or just me?


----------



## Bronte

15/01/2007
O 5633
H 5666
L 5620
C 5663
Vol 11,568


----------



## Bronte

No info out of US
Sycom data
H 5665
L 5656
C 5658
Vol 462


----------



## professor_frink

Euler said:
			
		

> Anyone know what wrong @ SFE?  Can't get any data for yesterday or overnight.  Is anyone else having the problem or just me?



I've only got data till midnight.
Did our night session shut down early because of the holiday in the states


----------



## Euler

professor_frink said:
			
		

> I've only got data till midnight.
> Did our night session shut down early because of the holiday in the states




Prof, it was an early close per below.  But SFE should have been up at 8.30am ... but their site data still not online.




US Trading hours (Sydney Times)
CME –                    Closed (floor)
GLOBEX –           Indicies halt 3.30am, re-opens 10.00am Tuesday
Interest rates 5.00am halt, re-opens 10.00am Tuesday
Metals & Energies halt 9.15am re-opens 10.00am Tuesday
CBOT –                 Closed
eCBOT –               Closed Monday, re-opens Tuesday 11.00am
COMEX/ NYMEX/ NYBOT – Closed (floor)
SFE –                     Midnight Close, Re-opens 8.30am Tuesday


----------



## professor_frink

Euler said:
			
		

> Prof, it was an early close per below.  But SFE should have been up at 8.30am ... but their site data still not online.
> 
> 
> 
> 
> US Trading hours (Sydney Times)
> CME –                    Closed (floor)
> GLOBEX –           Indicies halt 3.30am, re-opens 10.00am Tuesday
> Interest rates 5.00am halt, re-opens 10.00am Tuesday
> Metals & Energies halt 9.15am re-opens 10.00am Tuesday
> CBOT –                 Closed
> eCBOT –               Closed Monday, re-opens Tuesday 11.00am
> COMEX/ NYMEX/ NYBOT – Closed (floor)
> SFE –                     Midnight Close, Re-opens 8.30am Tuesday





Ok gotcha. If you don't have any data for your MP calcs, the ones I got off the net were 5665,5659,5637


----------



## Euler

professor_frink said:
			
		

> Ok gotcha. If you don't have any data for your MP calcs, the ones I got off the net were 5665,5659,5637



POC 5659  Range 5664-5630


----------



## professor_frink

Euler said:
			
		

> POC 5659  Range 5664-5630



wow, there's usually a small diff in our VAH,VAL calcs, but not that much  

FWIW, I'll be looking to trade off 67-70 area today. Still haven't done enough research on MP to start doing anything with it yet.


----------



## Euler

professor_frink said:
			
		

> wow, there's usually a small diff in our VAH,VAL calcs, but not that much
> FWIW, I'll be looking to trade off 67-70 area today. Still haven't done enough research on MP to start doing anything with it yet.



Yes, am wondering about that.  May be different algorithms being used but I can't check that out.  But am ok as long as they are "close".
Did the 3 day thing and got a VAH 5647.  Was looking at trading off that but held off.  Now watching to see if there is a break off the simple daily.


----------



## professor_frink

hope your in it Euler.
I have a pretty close stop for this- it's running way too hard for my liking. Currently @ 81 with a stop on 2 min chart close below 77. Target of 95.

edit: stop now up to 80


----------



## Euler

professor_frink said:
			
		

> hope your in it Euler.
> I have a pretty close stop for this- it's running way too hard for my liking. Currently @ 81 with a stop on 2 min chart close below 77. Target of 95.



Took 66, running well without lead from o/s.  Trailing stop currently 76

PS .. but looking to tighten stop as it flounders.


----------



## professor_frink

had enough-I'm gone @87. Might still hit 95, but I got no confidence in it at the moment.


----------



## Euler

professor_frink said:
			
		

> Target of 95.



If 81 holds looking for 97 target.  Stop now 81


----------



## Bronte

Bronte said:
			
		

> 15/01/2007
> O 5633
> H 5666
> L 5620
> C 5663
> Vol 11,568



Was this the data you wanted Euler?

Short at 5688


----------



## Bronte

Bronte said:
			
		

> Short at 5688



Over bought as you can see:


----------



## Euler

Bronte said:
			
		

> Was this the data you wanted Euler?
> Short at 5688



Thx Bronte ... yes did the trick.


----------



## professor_frink

Bronte said:
			
		

> Short at 5688



Bronte,  
Isn't this is the kind of post the mods don't want in here? What was the point of telling us you were short @ 88 that long after the fact?


----------



## spitrader1

professor_frink said:
			
		

> Bronte,
> Isn't this is the kind of post the mods don't want in here? What was the point of telling us you were short @ 88 that long after the fact?



I think a qoute from "A few good men" is PERFECT for this situation.
Kaffee (Tom Cruise) to Jo (Demi Moore) after pressing Colonel Nathan R Jessep(Jack Nicholson) about code reds-

"She has no point. She often has no point. It's part of her 
charm. We're outta here. Thank you."


----------



## professor_frink

spitrader1 said:
			
		

> I think a qoute from "A few good men" is PERFECT for this situation.
> Kaffee (Tom Cruise) to Jo (Demi Moore) after pressing Colonel Nathan R Jessep(Jack Nicholson) about code reds-
> 
> "She has no point. She often has no point. It's part of her
> charm. We're outta here. Thank you."


----------



## Bronte




----------



## professor_frink

Bronte said:
			
		

>



So that's your explanation for your hindsight call


----------



## Bronte

Please calm down prof.  
This thread is littered with similar calls.


----------



## professor_frink

Bronte said:
			
		

> Please calm down prof.
> This thread is littered with similar calls.



hardly. Whenever someone makes a comment on being in a trade, it carries some weight, because others usually know the points they are likely to place a trade. Coming out 15 odd minutes after supposedly trading and claiming to sell 3 points from the high of the day, with no other comment prior to the event is an entirely different matter.

I will be calm now.


----------



## Bronte

As you know
5696 is R2


----------



## spitrader1

professor_frink said:
			
		

> hardly. Whenever someone makes a comment on being in a trade, it carries some weight, because others usually know the points they are likely to place a trade. Coming out 15 odd minutes after supposedly trading and claiming to sell 3 points from the high of the day, with no other comment prior to the event is an entirely different matter.
> 
> I will be calm now.



professor bronte is the queen of hindsight trading. dont even bother going there-its tedious and you will never get a straight answer.


----------



## professor_frink

And that relates to selling 88 how 

edit: Don't even bother answering, because I really don't care to hear it.

Will be back in this thread when she's gone


----------



## Bronte

Bronte said:
			
		

> Over bought as you can see:



Over bought..so got in early.
Stoploss well above R2 
Long term trade.....

Sold R1 earlier & took a small loss.


----------



## Edwood

afternoon all - here's my crude Elliott count on the move since the start of 2007 - anyone here got any views?  BC is roughly 2 x AB so looks to be a valid double bottom as well but from an Elliott view I can't decide if we are in a C or 3, either way its been very impulsive... (my book is on a ship somewhere and I can't rememebr the exact rule...).  the ways its impulsing you'd have to think we are going higher (altho could correct first)

out of interest Bronte, why "a long term trade"?

cheers


----------



## spitrader1

Edwood said:
			
		

> afternoon all - here's my crude Elliott count on the move since the start of 2007 - anyone here got any views?  BC is roughly 2 x AB so looks to be a valid double bottom as well but from an Elliott view I can't decide if we are in a C or 3, either way its been very impulsive... (my book is on a ship somewhere and I can't rememebr the exact rule...).  the ways its impulsing you'd have to think we are going higher (altho could correct first)
> 
> out of interest Bronte, why "a long term trade"?
> 
> cheers



the old long term trade-that old chestnut!! long term trade in english is actually-"****, ive gone the wrong way, lets wait and see if it comes back"..FLMFAO


----------



## Edwood

spitrader1 said:
			
		

> the old long term trade-that old chestnut!! long term trade in english is actually-"****, ive gone the wrong way, lets wait and see if it comes back"..FLMFAO




ha ha - have had a few of those in my time Spi


----------



## spitrader1

Edwood said:
			
		

> ha ha - have had a few of those in my time Spi



edwood unfortunately/or fortunately depnds on how you look at it, my position size wont allow me to cross my fingers. Neither will my trading rules.


----------



## Edwood

mine neither any more Spi - i.e., the rules not the position size - but I'm sure we've all been there at some time along the way, running losers


----------



## Edwood

I don't trade using Elliott but have spent a couple of years with those who do and who do pretty well with it so I'd like to get my head around it properly.  wont clutter the thread tho if its not followed over here.  fwiw my aim is to catch & stay on wave 3's & C's so have built my main strategy around that anyway


----------



## Bronte

Did anyone Sell the retest 5688/91?
Obvious Resistance


----------



## Edwood

if you draw a line under the lows on your chart tho Bronte it looks a bit like an ascending triangle no?  i.e., a bullish continuation pattern.  also imo its dangerous to short when all indicators point up


----------



## Bronte

Yes, Edwood 
We very much agree.
They will also be expecting Americans to
Buy their market on a return from holiday.


----------



## Freddy I

Hi Bronte,

I was of the same train of thought as you - ie resistance at 88/90 so went short.

Imagine my suprise when it popped up to 06 ! What a pain !

Sold some more up in the 04/06 and looking for a gradual decline until close.

DOW was pretty darn high on Fri so Im looking for some retracing...


----------



## Bronte

Hi Freddy I,
A very big welcome to 'Trading the SPI' & ASF
SPI now 5687  
Seen 5698 High
(Todays R2 is 5696)


----------



## Freddy I

Thanks for the welcome Bronte.

Im a bit of a newbie round here, can you please tell me what 'R' means ?

You've posted quite a few threads - you trade the SPI for a living ?

Ive only just gotten into it, previously I was strictly equities (via CFDs), Im not sure if It'll put hairs on my chest or make the ones on my head go grey !


----------



## Bronte

Hehe!  
It could easily do both Freddy.

If you do a Google on "Pivot Points"
Or a search here at ASF you can read about S/R's


----------



## Bronte

Bronte said:
			
		

> Over bought..so got in early.
> Stoploss well above R2
> Long term trade.....
> 
> Sold R1 earlier & took a small loss.



Nice to see 5680 again


----------



## Bronte

Edwood said:
			
		

> out of interest Bronte, why "a long term trade"?



Sorry Edwood, just noticed your question.
We usually take +4 +8 +12 +16 +20 +24 etc
Depending on number of contracts traded, 
Strength of Support / Resistance & Price action.
We also have some time cycles to consider today


----------



## Sean K

Bronte said:
			
		

> Please calm down prof.
> This thread is littered with similar calls.



Yes Bronte, but Joe wants it stopped. Cheers.


----------



## Bronte

Just a reminder of the rules from post #1

_This thread is for SPI trading discussion using any sort of techniques that is NOT Gann.

Some ground rules.

No hindsite trades.

No solicitation of education services.

The posting of dollar sums of profit or loss is discouraged.

Do not post information or discussion on technique if you are not prepared to answer questions. Preservation of intellectual property is fine, but please, no teasers. This will be viewed as backdoor solicitation.

DO ask questions and partake in discussions for mutual benefit

DO respect peoples time and opinion.

Live calls of trades would be much better in the chatroom due to the inevitable time lag with the forum, and we would encourage people to post live trades there._


----------



## Edwood

Bronte said:
			
		

> Sorry Edwood, just noticed your question.
> We usually take +4 +8 +12 +16 +20 +24 etc
> Depending on number of contracts traded,
> Strength of Support / Resistance & Price action.
> We also have some time cycles to consider today




thanks for coming back Bronte - looks very complicated to me    I much prefer pretty patterns.  If you don't mind I think I'll take my cue from the more regular posters here and say "ta-ra" for now.  things usually start to go downhill when people start waving rules around....

have a pleasant evening

Ed


----------



## Bronte

"ta-ra" Edwood  shame to see you go.

SPI now 5653


----------



## Bronte

SPI chart since lunch:


----------



## Bronte

As the initial call "Short 5688" was late.
We will not mention this trade again  
(Nice to see Sycom trading below today's day Low)


----------



## Bronte

Bronte said:
			
		

> Nice to see Sycom trading below today's day Low



Just noticed SPI Sycom has traded as low as 5630
Down 26 points from the Close.


----------



## Freddy I

Hi All,

As I mentioned previously I am a bit of newbie when it comes to the SPI and I have a question for you all regarding a (fairly basic) strategy  I'm trying.

If close is at 5550

I'd put a buy order in at 5560 and a conditional sell order in at 5570
I would also put a sell order in at 5540 and a conditional buy order in at 5530.
I would leave these overnight.

The theory being that a movement in either direction is likley to be >10 points.

This has worked well for me several times in the past however I do understand that there is significant risk in that if the market moves past my buy price (ie 5560) but not past my sell price (ie 5570) then I am left exposed.

I also realise that my gain is generally limited to 10 points (20 if there is a large amount of volatility) , whereas my loss is unlimited.

Does anyone have any comments or suggestions ?
And as I said im fairly new to trading indexes so pls be kind !


----------



## Edwood

Freddy I said:
			
		

> Hi All,
> 
> As I mentioned previously I am a bit of newbie when it comes to the SPI and I have a question for you all regarding a (fairly basic) strategy  I'm trying.
> 
> If close is at 5550
> 
> I'd put a buy order in at 5560 and a conditional sell order in at 5570
> I would also put a sell order in at 5540 and a conditional buy order in at 5530.
> I would leave these overnight.
> 
> The theory being that a movement in either direction is likley to be >10 points.
> 
> This has worked well for me several times in the past however I do understand that there is significant risk in that if the market moves past my buy price (ie 5560) but not past my sell price (ie 5570) then I am left exposed.
> 
> I also realise that my gain is generally limited to 10 points (20 if there is a large amount of volatility) , whereas my loss is unlimited.
> 
> Does anyone have any comments or suggestions ?
> And as I said im fairly new to trading indexes so pls be kind !




morning Freddy - its not the sort of thing I follow, but the posters here who trade around pivots etc might(?)  if you think your loss could be unlimited then it doesn't sound like a very good strategy to me.  why not back-test it then paper trade it?  (which you should always do with any new ideas).  hope this helps!


----------



## Bronte

Yes, great post Edwood.
Very pleased that you have stayed with us.

How did you go with the "Pivot Points" Freddy I ?
The original 'Trading the SPI' had some useful info.
As well as the formula to work them out.

Todays Daily Pivot points are:

R3 5735
R2 5717
R1 5686
PP 5668
S1 5637
S2 5619
S3 5588


----------



## Bronte

Bronte said:
			
		

> Yes, great post Edwood.
> Very pleased that you have stayed with us.
> 
> How did you go with the "Pivot Points" Freddy I ?
> The original 'Trading the SPI' had some useful info.
> As well as the formula to work them out.
> 
> Todays Daily Pivot points are:
> 
> R3 5735
> R2 5717
> R1 5686
> PP 5668
> S1 5637
> S2 5619
> S3 5588



S1 is holding for now
5634 Low


----------



## Freddy I

Hey guys,

Yep taken on the advice re the pivot points and so on.

Some interesting reading.

I'll make sure ive got my stop losses nice and tight until ive done a fair bit more research.

Cheers for your help.


----------



## Freddy I

Wow bit of a dip this arvo from 3550 to 3535.
Anyone know why ?


----------



## Bronte

Glad we helped Freddy  
Nice idea about "Tight Stops"
SFE has had some "issues" today
You can see 5635/7 held for a while:


----------



## Freddy I

Cheers for the chart. 

Not a great deal of direction from how I see it.

How could anyone make money trading that ? You'd have to take some pretty large positions on some pretty small point ranges or it'd be a waste of time...unless im mistaken


----------



## Euler

The daily numbers are 24, 41-19.  The larger pictures shows value has congregated at the 37 level with 53 and 17 being the extremes.  Beyond this 5594 provides a line in the sand below which we will see major lows tested.

ps.  don't listen to anyone else ... do your own research


----------



## Bronte

Thank you Euler.
Pivot Point 5632
S1 5610  R1 5647
S2 5595  R2 5669


----------



## Bronte

Todays Pivot Points:
PP 5645
R1 5664 R2 5685 R3 5703
S1 5624 S2 5605 S3 5584


----------



## Sean K

Bronte said:
			
		

> Todays Pivot Points:
> PP 5645
> R1 5664 R2 5685 R3 5703
> S1 5624 S2 5605 S3 5584



Just out of curiosity, how did yesterday's 'pivot points' work out? cheers.


----------



## Bronte

Bronte said:
			
		

> Thank you Euler.
> Pivot Point 5632
> S1 5610  R1 5647
> S2 5595  R2 5669



Yesterday's SPI Day chart:
PP worked very well 5627 Low
R2 worked very well 5667 High


----------



## Bronte

Bronte said:
			
		

> Todays Pivot Points:
> PP 5645
> R1 5664 R2 5685 R3 5703
> S1 5624 S2 5605 S3 5584



Out "Pivot Points' certainly worked well again today:


----------



## Euler

Fair value on a 3 day basis has developed an interesting formation.  From being concentrated over a specific tight range centred around the 5650's over the last week or so, it has now spread more thinly to include the 5720's. So far today, the price action has further filled gaps in the range.  Depending how it performs on the SYCOM tonight will see whether those gaps are completely filled or whether it heads in a new direction (ie. moves to either end of the now wide range).  Given it is ETO and LEPO expiration tomorrow, it is unlikely to break to the downside unless something spooks the world markets.


PS ... just my rambling thoughts ... do yr research and trade as you see it.


----------



## professor_frink

morning Euler,
all time highs made over night, should be an interesting open. Will be watching 5741/42, the 58-63 area and 5780 for trading today


----------



## Euler

professor_frink said:
			
		

> morning Euler,
> all time highs made over night, should be an interesting open. Will be watching 5741/42, the 58-63 area and 5780 for trading today



On 3 day basis it has now broadened further.  The value sitting on the mid 5720's.  The 40's are good and 63 sits well.  Beyond that will be a waiting game for me.


----------



## professor_frink

Euler said:
			
		

> On 3 day basis it has now broadened further.  The value sitting on the mid 5720's.  The 40's are good and 63 sits well.  Beyond that will be a waiting game for me.



very good-that lines up with what I'm seeing well. Always nice when that happens  

Or it could be bad for both of us


----------



## Euler

professor_frink said:
			
		

> very good-that lines up with what I'm seeing well. Always nice when that happens
> 
> Or it could be bad for both of us



lolol .... got to get back to trading!!


----------



## Bronte

Nice 'Gap Open'   
The SPI is now trying very hard to Close the gap.


----------



## Sean K

Spi, your box is full.


----------



## spitrader1

kennas said:
			
		

> Spi, your box if full.



have deleted mate


----------



## Bronte

Bronte said:
			
		

> Nice 'Gap Open'
> The SPI is now trying very hard to Close the gap.



SPI 5730
Gap Closed  
Chart to follow:


----------



## nat

Bronte said:
			
		

> Nice 'Gap Open'
> The SPI is now trying very hard to Close the gap.



hi there bronte ,what chart are you loooking at for the gap open ,is it the aph7.sfd chart your taking notice of for the gaps ?the aph7.sfe doesnt have a big gap , Nathan


----------



## Bronte

Hi nat,
SPI March 2007 
Man Financial APIH07(10)
- SPI 200 (Day) Chart:


----------



## nat

ok then ,im on web iress ,cant seem to get charts to do that , what yours can do, can only look at dailies to c gap like that ,ill have to take more notice of such things thanx Nathan


----------



## spitrader1

Euler said:
			
		

> lolol .... got to get back to trading!!



euler/prof fink...a little bit off topic, but none the less. bought brand new mizuno irons the other day. Taking them along with my r5 and my scotty cameron down to the goldy this weekend to play hope island/robina woods/palm meadows. cant wait!!


----------



## nat

Bronte said:
			
		

> SPI 5730
> Gap Closed
> Chart to follow:



Bronte is ther any rules for gaps ,like a probability of a gap getting closed over not getting closed
i see that there is a gap still from fri  close to mon open ,is this correct and if so should one be looking for biases to close that gap at some stage? also still a gap from 11th  to 12 th yet to be filled.Nathan


----------



## Bronte

nat said:
			
		

> ok then ,im on web iress ,cant seem to get charts to do that , what yours can do, can only look at dailies to c gap like that ,ill have to take more notice of such things thanx Nathan



You are very welcome Nathan.   
Here ia a link to the Man Financial charts.
Look what happened as soon as the 'Gap' was closed.....
http://www.futuresource.com/charts/charts.jsp?s=APIH07&o=&a=V:5&z=610x300&d=medium&b=bar&st=


----------



## professor_frink

spitrader1 said:
			
		

> euler/prof fink...a little bit off topic, but none the less. bought brand new mizuno irons the other day. Taking them along with my r5 and my scotty cameron down to the goldy this weekend to play hope island/robina woods/palm meadows. cant wait!!



Golf is never off topic spi  
Sounds good. Would very much enjoy a round there. 

My nice shiny new driver went into the lake last week on the back 9 at my local-was a bloody hot day and I was hitting without my trusty glove(it finally fell apart 3 holes prior), luckily we haven't had much rain lately, so I could wade out to get it without all of my clothes getting wet!

And yes, the ball went in the lake too


----------



## Bronte

nat said:
			
		

> Bronte is ther any rules for gaps ,like a probability of a gap getting closed over not getting closed
> i see that there is a gap still from fri  close to mon open ,is this correct and if so should one be looking for biases to close that gap at some stage? also still a gap from 11th  to 12 th yet to be filled.Nathan



We covered 'Gaps' in detail somewhere in here Nathan:
https://www.aussiestockforums.com/forums/showthread.php?t=1664
Hopefully it wasn't deleted.


----------



## Euler

spitrader1 said:
			
		

> euler/prof fink...a little bit off topic, but none the less. bought brand new mizuno irons the other day. Taking them along with my r5 and my scotty cameron down to the goldy this weekend to play hope island/robina woods/palm meadows. cant wait!!



Spi ... cool ... lolol ... my missus won't let me spend any money on toys for me until she gets a substantial wish for her      ... can't understand it!!
Have fun!!!!


----------



## Bronte

Bronte said:
			
		

> You are very welcome Nathan.
> *Look what happened as soon as the 'Gap' was closed.....*



So we don't lose this:
We love 'Gaps'


----------



## Edwood

afternoon - some nice movement today  rejected at 1.68 extensions of wave 1 and i.

heres an overview to gaps

http://stockcharts.com/education/TradingStrategies/gapStrategies1.html


----------



## Bronte

Thank you for the link Edwood.  
We are pleased you decided to stay.


----------



## spitrader1

Euler said:
			
		

> Spi ... cool ... lolol ... my missus won't let me spend any money on toys for me until she gets a substantial wish for her      ... can't understand it!!
> Have fun!!!!



mine is, we are going to dreamworld one of the days....FLMFAO


----------



## Euler

Bears are taking bites off it and can't sustain the pressure.


----------



## Euler

Euler said:
			
		

> Bears are taking bites off it and can't sustain the pressure.



4+ point spreads   ... or are SFE having problems again!
... prices quoted look very odd


----------



## professor_frink

Euler said:
			
		

> 4+ point spreads   ... or are SFE having problems again!
> ... prices quoted look very odd



Howdy Euler, wasn't watching the SPI very closely this arvo-had a trade on the nik so was watching that. What time was it doing it?

The 58-63 area went pretty well today- high of 64, and the rally out of the lunchtime lows ended @ 59


----------



## Euler

On a daily basis value has a shift downwards but needs to be supported overnight for it to have any significance.  The move is not mature!


----------



## Euler

professor_frink said:
			
		

> Howdy Euler, wasn't watching the SPI very closely this arvo-had a trade on the nik so was watching that. What time was it doing it?
> The 58-63 area went pretty well today- high of 64, and the rally out of the lunchtime lows ended @ 59



Prof, was around 15.30 (give or take 15min).  Iress was giving me confliction BID/ASK.  After it settled I wondered whether if was Iress at fault.  On a number of occasions all the ASK's diappeared off the screen and a healthy looking column of BID's held.  So am not sure if it's SFE or Iress.

Yes, the highs held well, as did the 20's.  Overall a very good day.


----------



## professor_frink

Euler said:
			
		

> Prof, was around 15.30 (give or take 15min).  Iress was giving me confliction BID/ASK.  After it settled I wondered whether if was Iress at fault.  On a number of occasions all the ASK's diappeared off the screen and a healthy looking column of BID's held.  So am not sure if it's SFE or Iress.
> 
> Yes, the highs held well, as did the 20's.  Overall a very good day.



Price action looked pretty normal around that time, so it probably wasn't an exchange prob.


----------



## Bronte

professor_frink said:
			
		

> The 58-63 area went pretty well today- high of 64, and the rally out of the lunchtime lows ended @ 59



The 58 - 63 area held very well today prof  
Todays SPI 3 min chart:


----------



## professor_frink

morning all,
was looking to get set @ 78 this morning, but was a bit slow in pulling the trigger so missed out. Not expecting the area around 58-63 to be as strong as yesterday, but you never know-will have to wait and see how the market reacts when(if) it gets there.


----------



## Euler

professor_frink said:
			
		

> morning all,
> was looking to get set @ 78 this morning, but was a bit slow in pulling the trigger so missed out. Not expecting the area around 58-63 to be as strong as yesterday, but you never know-will have to wait and see how the market reacts when(if) it gets there.



Hi Prof, am looking for a reaction @ low 60's (high range both daily and 3'er is 61,62).


----------



## professor_frink

Euler said:
			
		

> Hi Prof, am looking for a reaction @ low 60's (high range both daily and 3'er is 61,62).



testing yesterday's high now @ 64, so we'll prob get that reaction pretty soon....or lots of chop, but lets not think about that


----------



## professor_frink

it's struggling to break down below yesterday's high-will be looking for it to hold above R1 before thinking bout a long


----------



## professor_frink

How'd you go Euler? It get low enough to get you interested?

Looks like we will test the weekly pivot @ 79 again


----------



## Euler

professor_frink said:
			
		

> How'd you go Euler? It get low enough to get you interested?
> Looks like we will test the weekly pivot @ 79 again



Missed this mornings pullback and was looking for a stronger reaction to 60's, so not in at all.  Plus, the missus decided "we" had to do some shopping, so missed the last hour.  A day of "missus" today!!
In irons as I write, I have a level of resistance @ 75 which it is skirting at the moment, but doesn't have the enthusiasm to go anywhere right now.
Let's see when they return from lunch.


----------



## professor_frink

Euler said:
			
		

> Missed this mornings pullback and was looking for a stronger reaction to 60's, so not in at all.  Plus, the missus decided "we" had to do some shopping, so missed the last hour.  A day of "missus" today!!
> In irons as I write, I have a level of resistance @ 75 which it is skirting at the moment, but doesn't have the enthusiam to go anywhere right now.
> Let's see when they return from lunch.



not to worry, you didn't miss much. Don't you love it how women 'volunteer' us for these kinds of things  
Think I'm Gunna close both this and my nik trade and start my weekend early :dance:


----------



## Euler

professor_frink said:
			
		

> not to worry, you didn't miss much. Don't you love it how women 'volunteer' us for these kinds of things
> Think I'm Gunna close both this and my nik trade and start my weekend early :dance:



lol ... but what would you do without them  ... lol ... 

enjoy the long weekend ... i think a few will join with you in the early start!!

   :drink:  opcorn:  :aus:


----------



## Euler

XJO an observation ... a very neat rounding off the trading week's action ... hit 5802.1 (5800 for what it's worth) and has rejected it convincingly (today).  Does this mean the top is in?  Does this look like the turn-around everyone has been talking about since the XJO broke and re-tested 5000?  Does this indicate the end of the bull run?  For mine, the sell on the daily is not in (yet).  It still has a way to go before that signal is in place.  But if it sets in place, it will move very quickly.  Watch this space over next trading days!!

PS  I don't mind which way it heads from here and am not arguing for a move either way.  Just my observations.

--------------------------
Do your research and listen to your inner voice.


----------



## sails

Looks like the ASX are now offering some monthly series on XJO index options - the same goes for SPI futures. http://www.asx.com.au/investor/pdf/notices/2007/Clm00707.pdf


----------



## Bronte

Thank you for bringing this to our attention Margaret
Very interesting link


----------



## sails

Your're welcome, Bronte!   

There certainly isn't much liquidity at this stage in the new contracts, however I believe that Aussie option market makers use SPI futures to hedge their XJO option positions, so it will be interesting to see if liquidity picks up due to any options hedging.


----------



## professor_frink

Cheers for that margaret  

Interesting thoughts Euler. If the sell on the daily hadn't arrived for you Thursday, it may well show up tomorrow


----------



## professor_frink

Morning all, was looking for action off the 21-23 area this morning, unfortunately we opened higher and never got there. Gap is now covered, spread is almost back to where it's been sitting the last couple of weeks, and I have no idea where we are heading from here, but overall have a bias to the shortside(which could be quite dangerous if we start rallying  )


----------



## Edwood

hi Prof - looks like a failed retest now so ideally we'll see it fade away now - well am short so thats the plan anyway!


----------



## professor_frink

Edwood said:
			
		

> hi Prof - looks like a failed retest now so ideally we'll see it fade away now - well am short so thats the plan anyway!



Sounds good Ed. Been a fairly quiet morning for me, had 2 long signals that were both ignored(1 would have been a winner, but would have been down 2 pts if both were taken), have had a b/e short trade, and am back in for round 2. Will like to see 21-23 today


----------



## Edwood

that would be fine with me!  I have to go out for a bit so try to talk it down pls...


----------



## professor_frink

Edwood said:
			
		

> that would be fine with me!  I have to go out for a bit so try to talk it down pls...



shall do Ed  

Started my 'training' on the Hang Seng last week. Trading 1 lot on the mini....@ 1.60 odd per point hardly gunna break the bank if it smacks me around(which it can do quite easily) but is a good learning experience anyway.

Think it's gunna take me a little while to get used to this thing, will be taking my time on the mini before upgrading myself to the full size contract- this thing is an absolute monster


----------



## Edwood

Hang Seng definitely looks interesting Prof - potentially lots of points when it decides to pull back


----------



## professor_frink

Edwood said:
			
		

> Hang Send definitely looks interesting Prof - potentially lots of points when it decides to pull back



potentially lots of points most days....if your on the right side of it, get on the wrong side and you can get punished pretty severly-countertrend trades are to be avoided!


----------



## Edwood

professor_frink said:
			
		

> potentially lots of points most days....if your on the right side of it, get on the wrong side and you can get punished pretty severly-countertrend trades are to be avoided!




all sounds a bit hairy to me!  will stick to ASX, DOW & FTSE for the moment.  good luck tho, would be interested to hear how you get on

I see we're back at the top bolly now and RSI>73 so maybe time for another swing down


----------



## professor_frink

Edwood said:
			
		

> all sounds a bit hairy to me!  will stick to ASX, DOW & FTSE for the moment.  good luck tho, would be interested to hear how you get on
> 
> I see we're back at the top bolly now and RSI>73 so maybe time for another swing down



Will fill you in when I've been doing it for a couple of months. Or when I can bring myself to blink when I'm in a trade, whichever comes first!

SPI is currently testing the weekly pivot @43. Doesn't look like we'll get down to the 20's today


----------



## Euler

Euler said:
			
		

> XJO an observation ...  For mine, the sell on the daily is not in (yet). !!




A sell formation still a work-in-progress on the JO ...... I want to see further confirmation. The bears had the opportunity to take firm control this morning but capitulated.  A tug-of-war currently in progress, with the last 1/2hr of trading possibly yielding more clues to the unfolding puzzle.

This does not mean shorter term intraday opportunities don't exist both sides.

..... just my personal observations!

--------------------------
Do your research and listen to your inner voice.


----------



## Edwood

Euler said:
			
		

> A sell formation still a work-in-progress on the JO ...... I want to see further confirmation. The bears had the opportunity to take firm control this morning but capitulated.




fwiw looks to me like a bear flag forming on the hourly chart Euler, target 5,670-ish


----------



## Euler

POC for the daily and 3 sit in close correlation: 
POC (POC3) 5740 (5740) Range 5750-5729 (5754-5721)
The Friday SYCOM values did skew the big picture down approx 15-20 points.


----------



## Euler

Euler said:
			
		

> POC for the daily and 3 sit in close correlation:
> POC (POC3) 5740 (5740) Range 5750-5729 (5754-5721)
> The Friday SYCOM values did skew the big picture down approx 15-20 points.



nice breakout of the low of the range


----------



## Euler

Evidently a big player was in the market with big sell orders yesterday ... selling all day according to one that knows. Will be interesting to see if the selling continues or if short covering in progress.
On the bigger picture the immediate momentum building towards sell formation has receded. We will have to see further price action to validate that it's still in its development phase.



..... just a personal view!

--------------------------
Do your research and listen to your inner voice.


----------



## Edwood

Euler said:
			
		

> nice breakout of the low of the range




v. impulsive move, looks like a short squeeze.  some are calling tops in for the US - will get interesting if ASX can't print a new high from here


----------



## Edwood

oops - posts crossed Euler 

out of interest, what do you need to see to get acceptance here?


----------



## Edwood

a bit of divergence now


----------



## Euler

Edwood said:
			
		

> oops - posts crossed Euler
> out of interest, what do you need to see to get acceptance here?



right now looking to see reaction to previews levels.
on longer term basis am looking for a swing in momentum and value.


----------



## Euler

Euler said:
			
		

> right now looking to see reaction to previews levels.
> on longer term basis am looking for a swing in momentum and value.



Very strong all day and even stronger finish.  New high but vol pulled back. An indication of short covering and fewer new longs? Will just have to remain a point of discussion until the picture becomes clearer!


----------



## Euler

Prof ... I'm talking to myself ... a bad sign!!


----------



## Edwood

borrowed this from another site, generated via ESignal using a harmonics add-in - showing a bearish XA=BC pattern (otherwise known as AB=CD) on XJO targetting anywhere between 5,820 & 5,900 for a top, with a preferred retrace of 61.8% to 5,530 area

just for interest really but the guys who have been using auto-generated as well as manually calculated harmonics on currencies, FTSE Dax & Dow have been havnig some good results.  if nothing else will be interesting to see how this plays out


----------



## Euler

POC 5795 range 5824-5772 ... all the pundits are predicting blue sky ... i say trade the price action


----------



## Euler

Euler said:
			
		

> ... i say trade the price action



some early profit taking/mixed trading in the banks has dampened enthusiasm thus far ... resources as expected held well


----------



## nat

morning all ,just some thoughts of mine ,could be wrong but markets at all time high last day of month hence ,thinking the fund managers maybe to get there bonus maybe have to sell stock to lock in profits for month and that why for now market went down ,thats the way i traded it anyway and ind on 1 hour chart were starting to turn down ,and was above all pivots on my chart .Nathan


----------



## Edwood

nat said:
			
		

> morning all ,just some thoughts of mine ,could be wrong but markets at all time high last day of month hence ,thinking the fund managers maybe to get there bonus maybe have to sell stock to lock in profits for month and that why for now market went down ,thats the way i traded it anyway and ind on 1 hour chart were starting to turn down ,and was above all pivots on my chart .Nathan




nice work N, always good when it plays out the way you planned - maybe smoething to watch every month / quarter end then?


----------



## nat

yes it is good when a plan comes together doesnt happen for me to often but ,still in steep learning curve ,weight of evidence to get one on right side works for me usually and stops if wrong .

Ive been tyring to take more notice of times like end of month ,options expiry day ,and futres rollover days ,so much more to trading the spi then i ever thought but loving it .Nathan


----------



## Edwood

yep indices are fun - always something going on!

and lots of different ways to trade them too, somethnig for everyone
 usually (except the bears in these markets - just buy the dips looks like the way forward  )

have to be a little wary of volatile days tho like major news & expiries imo, trending days are usually much less stressful


----------



## Bronte

nat said:
			
		

> Ive been tyring to take more notice of times like end of month ,options expiry day ,and futures rollover days ,so much more to trading the spi then i ever thought but loving it .Nathan



Hi Nathan / Edwood,
We covered a lot of this type of trading in the 4000 posts on the original 'Trading the SPI' thread, and also three to four years ago at RC.
Glad you are enjoying trading the SPI


----------



## Euler

the signal could be in ... if not in ... on the verge


----------



## Edwood

Euler said:
			
		

> the signal could be in ... if not in ... on the verge




grrr?


----------



## Euler

Euler said:
			
		

> the signal could be in ... if not in ... on the verge



btw ... i could be very very wrong!!


----------



## Edwood

Euler said:
			
		

> btw ... i could be very very wrong!!




thats what stops are for no?  but seriously - after all the super money coming in this month end, I'm wondering whats going to drive us up next?

ideally I'd like to see the 5,770 area taken out before gettnig too excited, and prob best to wait to see what the FOMC have to say tomorrow morning


----------



## Euler

Euler said:
			
		

> the signal could be in ... if not in ... on the verge



requires a break of mid 50's. volume not impressive atm


----------



## Euler

Euler said:
			
		

> the signal could be in ... if not in ... on the verge



now need the follow through.  volume picked up from a targetted wimpy 13k to an impressive 18k in the last 1-1/2hrs


----------



## Edwood

I have us closing on support - looks like we are left waiting on the FOMC minutes now....


----------



## Bronte

What support is that then Edwood?


----------



## Edwood

if you draw a trend line under the lows Bronte its referred to as support, sort of like this


----------



## Bronte

Thank you Edwood


----------



## Edwood

Bronte said:
			
		

> Thank you Edwood




only kidding B  

my map might be different to SPI tho - I'm looking at 24hr data from a spreadbet firm but thats what I trade so I just gotta get used to it.  tends to work out OK - ie the patterns & fibs etc still pretty much apply as expected so overall levels seem to be unaffected - I just get a bit of xtra sideways action with mine


----------



## Edwood

no change to US rates, Dow making new highs, currently +116


----------



## professor_frink

howdy folks,

haven't been doing many trades on the spi this week due to family stuff, but have had enough time in the arvos to carry on the HSI trading. There have been some monstrous moves this week(not that it translates into much money at all on the mini contract!!!!)

Here's an example of what I'm staring at, and why I want to get myself involved in this beast-

yes, that's a range of over 300 pts for the day  

And yes, today's range is less than yesterday's  

I'm kind of hoping for a few narrow range choppy days to trade in before I upgrade myself to the full sized contract, just so I can get a feel for how they play out(and to see how much I get chopped out of trades and smacked around lol!)


----------



## >Apocalypto<

Hello SPI warriors! 

I do a bit of trading over the xjo at the moment. Now looking to start on the spi.

I see a lot of you mainly Fink use ambibroker or something like that.

cau you get a volume reading on the spi and obv using ambibroker (Fink????)


----------



## professor_frink

Trade_It said:
			
		

> Hello SPI warriors!
> 
> I do a bit of trading over the xjo at the moment. Now looking to start on the spi.
> 
> I see a lot of you mainly Fink use ambibroker or something like that.
> 
> cau you get a volume reading on the spi and obv using ambibroker (Fink????)



howdy Trade It,

Yes, you can get OBV on amibroker, I'm not quite sure what you mean by a 'volume reading', but if you are just referring to having the volume displayed on the chart, then yes, you can do that too.

Good luck with the spi if you do decide to give it a go, If you have any questions about it, feel free to ask, I'm sure one of us will be able to help


----------



## >Apocalypto<

thanks PF

i will do, SPI looks like such fun.

one Q do any of you guys know if the ETCFD's coming out this year will have the SPI in it? or maybe just the XJO................


----------



## professor_frink

Trade_It said:
			
		

> thanks PF
> 
> i will do, SPI looks like such fun.
> 
> one Q do any of you guys know if the ETCFD's coming out this year will have the SPI in it? or maybe just the XJO................



what's an ETCFD Trade it?


----------



## >Apocalypto<

professor_frink said:
			
		

> what's an ETCFD Trade it?




hey Frink,

I mean the new ASX cfd's coming this year or Exchange Traded CFD's

sorry not to make that clear


----------



## Edwood

Trade-It - copied from the ASX website:

"In Quarter 2, 2007, ASX will launch the world's first Exchange Traded CFD market. Exchange Traded CFDs will be listed on the Sydney Futures Exchange (SFE). The proposed suite of Exchange Traded CFDs includes CFDs on:*

ASX's Top 50 Stocks,
Major global equity indices,
Key FX crosses, and
Selected commodities."
thought it might lead to increased volumes for SPI, but probably not if only the top 50 stocks from ASX are included (added - unless of course ASX200 is included as one of the major indices).*

you can sign up for email updates re: CFD's


----------



## Edwood

very quiet here atm - everyone on holiday?

whats the view then? market pausing before more up, or are we at key resistance and due a pull-back?  I guess time will tell . here's a 4hr view of continuous contract - am looking for some downside now


----------



## nat

Hi ed wood it is quite in this section isnt it ,miss the old thread a bit was always something on the go ,im afraid i havent much to add still in learning mode ,got whipsawed the smorning and only made up a heap of points when left trade opened when thought had closed everything ,bit of a worry when thats my best trade for day ,another day another lesson ,thiink market is in balance at moment waiting for a break either way .Nathan


----------



## professor_frink

howdy Ed, nat,

haven't been trading the SPI much recently-quite enjoy the late starts on the HSI, and the current volatility in it makes for some very interesting trading.

Will be back to post if I start trading it again


----------



## Edwood

ha ha - you gotta laugh hey Nat   still, it worked out OK, hope you're still long

sheesh seems to be little point trying to short the 'tops', may as well take my bear suit off & join in the buy the dips brigade!  I guess as the amount of short interest increases it becomes easier for 'the boys' to kick off swift short-covering rallies


----------



## Edwood

professor_frink said:
			
		

> howdy Ed, nat,
> 
> haven't been trading the SPI much recently-quite enjoy the late starts on the HSI, and the current volatility in it makes for some very interesting trading.
> 
> Will be back to post if I start trading it again




aye am a big fan of late starts Prof, ASX opens at noon for me.  glad to hear HSI is working out!


----------



## Edwood

right - have printed this off & stuck it next to the PC...

"buy the dips, buy the dips, buy the dips"  

couldn't be more simple really


----------



## professor_frink

Edwood said:
			
		

> aye am a big fan of late starts Prof, ASX opens at noon for me.  glad to hear HSI is working out!



cheers Ed  



			
				Edwood said:
			
		

> right - have printed this off & stuck it next to the PC...
> 
> "buy the dips, buy the dips, buy the dips"
> 
> couldn't be more simple really



Don't forget to print one off that says "sell the rallies"- It will be needed at some point as well


----------



## Edwood

yeah I guess I should do that, but until it bends I'll stick with the trend

the bollies are contracting & we have a bullish looking symmetrical triangle so could be another moooove coming


----------



## professor_frink

It'll be interesting to see if it runs.
HSI is losing an arm and a leg atm, here's an example of why I'm not super keen on the SPI atm


----------



## Edwood

aww, don't show me that Prof!!  sheesh.  no wonder you've been quiet.  here's hoping we'll get a bit of that over here soon then


----------



## professor_frink

Edwood said:
			
		

> aww, don't show me that Prof!!  sheesh.  no wonder you've been quiet.  here's hoping we'll get a bit of that over here soon then



There was an even bigger day last thursday  
The SGX nik contract just opened down 30 pts(it opens 15 min before the Japanese ones), and the SPI is starting to follow it.

"sell the rallies,sell the rallies"


----------



## Edwood

great stuff mate - looks like you timed it perfectly to start getting involved over there.  I hear its turned into a real bubble, people queuing outside broker offices in China trying to open accounts - like lambs to the slaughter!  

some interesting notes coming out lately, don't know if you've come across McHugh?  he has Mar 12 lined up as an important date - if you believe that whole fibonnacci thing of course

anyway, I'll let you get back to making money!


----------



## Edwood

typical - looks like a bullish triangle which wasn't, at least I got another long on at the dip!


----------



## Edwood

a bit on China for you Prof... have fun 

http://www.stocktiming.com/Monday-DailyMarketUpdate.htm


----------



## Edwood

charging away!  but starting to run out of steam.  assuming we gap open again today you'd have to think its getting exhaustive in nature


----------



## nat

Hi all ,was this a day for a gap trade down ,was thinking it was but didnt take it ,maybe next time Nathan


----------



## Edwood

hi Nat - took a short myself on todays gap but have to confess I am not an expert on them (sounds like Bronte is your man) or ASX for that matter as have only been following it for a few weeks now but it does seem that ASX likes to fill its gaps & definitely something to get on to as it goes a bit flat after the opening couple of hours

someone has probably done some analysis on it - eg gap size as a % move from previous close & the probability of gap fill - 100% fill, 75% & 50% proportionate to gap size - & you could set up your trades accordingly


----------



## professor_frink

morning all-
Cheers for the article Ed, would make for great trading if it all fell to pieces like the nasdaq did  

In regards to this morning's gap nat, what I'd be looking for is a gap open with a decent spread between the cash and futures(30-40 pts), and I'd be looking for a move down through a pivot level in the first 5 minutes or so. For these types of plays, I like the see the futures moving down well before the cash opens.
This morning on open, the spi was trading at less than a 20 pt premium, and the spi gapped up above R2 and held there leading up to the cash opening, which for me, makes it just as likely to be a gap and go kind of play, as opposed to a gap and fill one.


----------



## nat

professor_frink said:
			
		

> morning all-
> Cheers for the article Ed, would make for great trading if it all fell to pieces like the nasdaq did
> 
> In regards to this morning's gap nat, what I'd be looking for is a gap open with a decent spread between the cash and futures(30-40 pts), and I'd be looking for a move down through a pivot level in the first 5 minutes or so. For these types of plays, I like the see the futures moving down well before the cash opens.
> This morning on open, the spi was trading at less than a 20 pt premium, and the spi gapped up above R2 and held there leading up to the cash opening, which for me, makes it just as likely to be a gap and go kind of play, as opposed to a gap and fill one.



ok then thanx for that professor, just wondering to do with spread between futures and cash, for a little while futures has been at a discount during day of 20 to 30 points but this morn first up was at a premium it has now gone back to status quo, could that be factored in or still not worth condsidering. Nathan


----------



## Bronte

Good morning guys...
"Happy Valentines" :1luvu: 
The SPI usually gives us a present around its anniversary:

Todays SPI "Gap Open":


----------



## professor_frink

nat said:
			
		

> ok then thanx for that professor, just wondering to do with spread between futures and cash, for a little while futures has been at a discount during day of 20 to 30 points but this morn first up was at a premium it has now gone back to status quo, could that be factored in or still not worth condsidering. Nathan




It could be- I haven't been following the spi closely lately, so haven't been aware of what the spread has been like the last couple of weeks. If it has been at a big discount, then pops up to a premium on a gap opening, then I'd be more inclined to fade it. It still didn't fulfill my primary trigger for a short, as it didn't break down through the pivot level during the opening period. If you want to look for this type of trade, it may be a good idea to look for more than one reason(the spread) to take the trade. If it turns out to be a gap and go open, then you'll want a sensible place to put a stop that isn't going to cost you too much when you're wrong(and it will happen for this type of play). It doesn't have to be a pivot level, could be normal s/r, fib levels, etc.

A stop above the opening bar on a 5 minute chart would have gotten you stopped out just before the move down began, so you have to be careful of that kind of stop(I haven't done any kind of testing on this kind of stop, so it may have been the exception, DYOR).


----------



## nat

thanx for help professor ,Nathan


----------



## professor_frink

nat said:
			
		

> thanx for help professor ,Nathan



no worries mate


----------



## wiseguy

gday fellas

i believe this is my first post here so heres my contribution 
its a bit of info on trading the opening gaps
http://www.cbot.com/cbot/pub/cont_detail/0,3206,1070+14719,00.html

Besides the SPI200, i also follow the ftse, dax and sp500. all of which seem to respect pivot points pretty well, however when i apply pivot points to the spi200, it rarely seems to work too well? Am i missing something? Do you guys calculate pivot points based on the day & night session, or just day?

Cheerios


----------



## Bronte

G'day wiseguy & a big welcome  
Thank you for the link / information.
We work out our SPI pivot points on:
Daily OHLC (with and without the night session)
Weekly OHLC &
Monthly OHLC


----------



## Edwood

yes thanks for the link wiseguy, some useful stuff in there!


----------



## Bearman52

wiseguy said:
			
		

> gday fellas
> 
> i believe this is my first post here so heres my contribution
> its a bit of info on trading the opening gaps
> http://www.cbot.com/cbot/pub/cont_detail/0,3206,1070+14719,00.html
> 
> Besides the SPI200, i also follow the ftse, dax and sp500. all of which seem to respect pivot points pretty well, however when i apply pivot points to the spi200, it rarely seems to work too well? Am i missing something? Do you guys calculate pivot points based on the day & night session, or just day?
> 
> Cheerios




Hi Wiseguy
an interesting observation
I am a daytrader and "WILL NOT" hold positions overnight and agree that a longer term trader could probably view this differently.
I have traded the SPI since 1986 and it has been very kind to me ,I also trade the DAX the ES & ER Minis, concentrating primarily on the US contracts these days (yes market times are  inconvienient for Aust) because I have found over the years that unlike the SPI which is comparitivley thinly traded and can be adversly moved against a position by only a handful of contracts
these markets adhere closely to Price Action and Technical levels and Points due to the tens of thousands of proffessional traders of these contracts worldwide that follow these methodologies .This makes it possible to trade in and out of positions all day long using very tight stops.
I guess what I'm trying to say is that my observations are similar to yours and that "I"  certainly find the SPI a more fickle beast as regards adherence to the "RULES" I do however have a long time affair with it,and will bang about with a few contracts during morning trading especially if the sycom action seems to have put it out of balance. S&R about the opening price then becomes my main focus
JMO
BEARMAN


----------



## nat

Bearman52 said:
			
		

> Hi Wiseguy
> an interesting observation
> I am a daytrader and "WILL NOT" hold positions overnight and agree that a longer term trader could probably view this differently.
> I have traded the SPI since 1986 and it has been very kind to me ,I also trade the DAX the ES & ER Minis, concentrating primarily on the US contracts these days (yes market times are  inconvienient for Aust) because I have found over the years that unlike the SPI which is comparitivley thinly traded and can be adversly moved against a position by only a handful of contracts
> these markets adhere closely to Price Action and Technical levels and Points due to the tens of thousands of proffessional traders of these contracts worldwide that follow these methodologies .This makes it possible to trade in and out of positions all day long using very tight stops.
> I guess what I'm trying to say is that my observations are similar to yours and that "I"  certainly find the SPI a more fickle beast as regards adherence to the "RULES" I do however have a long time affair with it,and will bang about with a few contracts during morning trading especially if the sycom action seems to have put it out of balance. S&R about the opening price then becomes my main focus
> JMO
> BEARMAN



Hi bear man ,just wondering is the way you trade the spi entering off a support or res level with stop other side ?What time frame during day do you work off of .Wow doing the spi since 86 thats a while ,how long did it take to get profiecient at it ? NAthan


----------



## Bearman52

nat said:
			
		

> Hi bear man ,just wondering is the way you trade the spi entering off a support or res level with stop other side ?What time frame during day do you work off of .Wow doing the spi since 86 thats a while ,how long did it take to get profiecient at it ? NAthan



Hi Nat
I trade off either side of the opening price depending on my view of the overnite action ie: yesterday looked for breaks to the downside
for this type of trading I use a 21 tick candlestick chart with an initial 4pt stop which I quickly move to break even as price can bang around a bit at this time of day I observe the candles like a Hawk and will often take the position off if I don't think it looks right b4 it runs back to the stop
for example yesterday there were 2 trade s b4 the 3rd one broke and the theory worked
and who said I was Profficient?
its just a job!
BM


----------



## nat

ok thanx for that ,if one has been trading that long and survived must have  a method that works over time alright,Nathan


----------



## Edwood

just had another read of your gaps post wiseguy - interesting where he places his stops, some are pretty wide compared to reward, but hes only taking those setups with 80%+ prob of success.  very helpful - cheers


----------



## Bronte

Bronte said:
			
		

> Good morning guys...
> The SPI usually gives us a present around its anniversary:
> Todays SPI "Gap Open":



Nice one point 'Gap' Edwood
Record High on 24th Anniversary
5971 Gap Open


----------



## Edwood

so do you think we might have a near term top in now Bronte?

unfortunately am away from the screen again this week, hope it goes well for everyone!

here's a bit more on the China bubble...

http://www.chinadaily.com.cn/bizchina/2007-01/26/content_793865.htm


----------



## Bronte

The SPI has given us plenty of "Tops" around this time of year Edwood.
16th February 1983 was the SPI's birthday.
24 years :birthday:


----------



## nat

Hi bronte ,well that clears a question ive been meaning to ask about the aniversary ,thanx Nathan


----------



## Bronte

You are welcome Nathan  
It has been a great 24 years.
The index started at only 500


----------



## Bronte

*6000*

 :band  :guitar:


----------



## Sean K

Bronte said:
			
		

> *6000*
> 
> :band  :guitar:



Where to from here Bronte?

I'm thinking 10% correction back to 5450 ish support.


----------



## Bronte

kennas said:
			
		

> Where to from here Bronte?
> I'm thinking 10% correction back to 5450 ish support.



Yes a very strong close to the SPI, kennas
ASX 200 finished on its High 6017.1 +65.3
We are certainly expecting a breather soon.
1 min SPI chart attached:
Nice to see 6000


----------



## Bronte

Bronte said:
			
		

> *6000*
> 
> :band  :guitar:



Haven't posted one of these charts for a while.
You can see how far we have come....SPI Daily:
Look at the Big numbers. 5300  5500  now 6000


----------



## CanOz

kennas said:
			
		

> Where to from here Bronte?
> 
> I'm thinking 10% correction back to 5450 ish support.




Holly smokes Kennas! What on earth makes you think that a correction will be that deep? Surely 5700 would offer some support?

 

Kennas you bear!


----------



## Bronte

Bronte said:
			
		

> Yes a very strong close to the SPI, kennas
> ASX 200 finished on its High 6017.1 +65.3
> We are certainly expecting a breather *soon*.
> Nice to see 6000



Well our Big number *6000* has been well & truly tested this AM:


----------



## Sean K

CanOz said:
			
		

> Holly smokes Kennas! What on earth makes you think that a correction will be that deep? Surely 5700 would offer some support?
> 
> 
> 
> Kennas you bear!



LOL. I should change the avatar back to a bear perhaps. Yep, it'll probably bounce at 5700, but it seems to be moving just too far away from the long term average. On the other foot, with the amount of liquidity out there, baby boomers cashing in their houses for shares, and the future fund splashing 14 bil in there, perhaps it'll just keep going....


----------



## Bronte

Somewhere in the original 'Trading the SPI' thread.
We discussed trading Big number in detail.


----------



## dodgers

Any chance of a quick summary Bronte?

am thinking of getting my shorts on pretty soon...


----------



## Bronte

Hehe!  
So are we dodgers.
I will open a new thread:
*'Trading Big Numbers'
*https://www.aussiestockforums.com/forums/showthread.php?p=125677#post125677


----------



## dodgers

Cool, I'm with you kennas...will be looking to short back to the 5486 Jan pullback low


----------



## Edwood

(all-sessions data) into a tight corner, maybe another rise in it yet but getting close all the same...


----------



## professor_frink

Hi Ed,
Check this madness out-  high to low move of 374 points in 2 hours  

Today has sealed the deal- I'm officially retiring from trading the spi!


----------



## Edwood

good boy!  I saw it was down earlier.  trust Ali-Greenspan to get the markets moving 

so are you gonna create an Asian fred?


----------



## CanOz

Can any of you guys tell me what the Shanghai Comp is doing?


----------



## professor_frink

Edwood said:
			
		

> good boy!  I saw it was down earlier.  trust Ali-Greenspan to get the markets moving
> 
> so are you gonna create an Asian fred?



hadn't thought about that(maybe in the near future when I get a bit more experience trading this beast I'll start a new thread)- currently pretty happy polluting this one with my off topic ramblings!


----------



## professor_frink

CanOz said:
			
		

> Can any of you guys tell me what the Shanghai Comp is doing?



Don't have access to Shanghai, but the Hong Kong H shares are getting flogged- down 1.95% in the morning session. Futs on the H-shares off 2.45%. Can't imagine Shanghai is doing too well

<edit> Singapore has a Chinese index as well-  	FTSE/XINHUA CHINA A50. It's down about 4.6%


----------



## CanOz

professor_frink said:
			
		

> Don't have access to Shanghai, but the Hong Kong H shares are getting flogged- down 1.95% in the morning session. Futs on the H-shares off 2.45%. Can't imagine Shanghai is doing too well




Prof,

That was quite a sell off on the XAO and XJO this arvo, whats your call on the SPI open tomorrow? 

Cheers,


----------



## professor_frink

CanOz said:
			
		

> Prof,
> 
> That was quite a sell off on the XAO and XJO this arvo, whats your call on the SPI open tomorrow?
> 
> Cheers,



On the dailies we look way overextended at the moment. I think there is a bit of data coming out of the U.S tonight(not quite sure-haven't checked yet). The Dow has been slowly losing steam for a little while now, so a set of bad numbers that causes any kind of selloff could mean we are in for a bumpy ride over the next few weeks. And it's not like the rest of Asia is providing much of a good lead for us to follow right now either. 

For the Intraday moves - most of my big trades are coming from the short side. Dunno if there is something in that or not  

There's my  bearish  

Now all everyone has to do is sit back and wait for the rally to start


----------



## CanOz

professor_frink said:
			
		

> On the dailies we look way overextended at the moment. I think there is a bit of data coming out of the U.S tonight(not quite sure-haven't checked yet). The Dow has been slowly losing steam for a little while now, so a set of bad numbers that causes any kind of selloff could mean we are in for a bumpy ride over the next few weeks. And it's not like the rest of Asia is providing much of a good lead for us to follow right now either.
> 
> For the Intraday moves - most of my big trades are coming from the short side. Dunno if there is something in that or not
> 
> There's my  bearish
> 
> Now all everyone has to do is sit back and wait for the rally to start




Thanks for that Prof...i was watching the whole thing unfold and i liquidated everything before the close...i hope i didn' jump the gun.

I think its quite exciting, all cashed up and ready to go.

Cheers,


----------



## professor_frink

CanOz said:
			
		

> Thanks for that Prof...i was watching the whole thing unfold and i liquidated everything before the close...i hope i didn' jump the gun.
> 
> I think its quite exciting, all cashed up and ready to go.
> 
> Cheers,



Be warned- I was getting pretty bearish early April last year, a good 4 weeks ahead of schedule!

Sorry, I didn't really make much of a call for tomorrow's open, did I? On that front, I couldn't say exactly. As per usual, we'll be held hostage to the o/n action. Couldn't be any more vague if I tried!

Good luck CanOz, I hope you've timed it well


----------



## Edwood

ideally I'd like to see a rally from here to a lower high setting up for more short entries.  when the trend line goes am expecting it to move quickly downward with swift countertrend rallies along the way

might soon be time to 'short the rallies' instead of 'buying the dips'


----------



## professor_frink

professor_frink said:
			
		

> Don't have access to Shanghai, but the Hong Kong H shares are getting flogged- down 1.95% in the morning session. Futs on the H-shares off 2.45%. Can't imagine Shanghai is doing too well
> 
> <edit> Singapore has a Chinese index as well-  	FTSE/XINHUA CHINA A50. It's down about 4.6%



This is getting real ugly-
HSI just gapped down after lunch and preceded to lose another 150+ pts
HK H shares futs off by 4% now.
FTSE/XINHUA CHINA A50 off by 6%

<edit>- make that 200 pts from the lunch break on the HSI


----------



## Edwood

bring it on!

a bit from McHugh - reckons we could have a little more to go, ie we could just be in a 4 - altho we could have seen a shallow 4 last week, guess we'll know soon enough...


----------



## CanOz

professor_frink said:
			
		

> This is getting real ugly-
> HSI just gapped down after lunch and preceded to lose another 150+ pts
> HK H shares futs off by 4% now.
> FTSE/XINHUA CHINA A50 off by 6%
> 
> <edit>- make that 200 pts from the lunch break on the HSI




Found a daily chart of the Shanghai comp. 600 points!!!!!! 7%, is that right?


----------



## professor_frink

CanOz said:
			
		

> Found a daily chart of the Shanghai comp. 600 points!!!!!! 7%, is that right?



That sounds about right. 

I think the FTSE/XINHUA CHINA A50 futures I'm watching is a similar index.

Interesting chart Ed. Is it in log scale? Wave 1 looks bigger than 3


----------



## Edwood

professor_frink said:
			
		

> That sounds about right.
> 
> I think the FTSE/XINHUA CHINA A50 futures I'm watching is a similar index.
> 
> Interesting chart Ed. Is it in log scale? Wave 1 looks bigger than 3




w3 cannot be the shortest - he has w1 extending, and a 6,400-ish constraint on w5 to keep within the 'rules' - otherwise his count will be incorrect.  his count is pretty bearish tho as he has us riding into a major top - not sure about that, others have us in a major 3.  will try to stick up an alternative shortly


----------



## Edwood

nope the alternative count isn't on my laptop - PC is all packed up ready for a move - its all a bit too long term anyway, so will just have to concentrate on the action around that trend line for now


----------



## professor_frink

Edwood said:
			
		

> nope the alternative count isn't on my laptop - PC is all packed up ready for a move - its all a bit too long term anyway, so will just have to concentrate on the action around that trend line for now



That trendline you posted earlier may be in danger tomorrow-By my chart, we've got price sitting right near the trendline(which I wouldn't have much faith in, given how steep it is), and price has been rejected pretty convincingly at a monthly pivot.
With the Dow off over 50 already, and the SPI has lost 40 pts since the day session closed, we could be in for a bit of a move down  

here's the chart-


----------



## Edwood

well I guess thats the trend line gone then - CMC offering 5,865 atm


----------



## professor_frink

Edwood said:
			
		

> well I guess thats the trend line gone then - CMC offering 5,865 atm



morning Ed,
closest thing to short term support I can find is the 3rd Jan highs. Maybe not today, but in the next couple definately could be in play.

Thinking of coming out of retirement for today's spi open  
Then move on to the nikkei open.
Then move on to HSI open.

Gunna be a busy day!


----------



## Sean K

professor_frink said:
			
		

> Thinking of coming out of retirement for today's spi open
> Then move on to the nikkei open.
> Then move on to HSI open.



Frink, do you mean buy the open, for the recovery?


----------



## professor_frink

CanOz said:
			
		

> Thanks for that Prof...i was watching the whole thing unfold and i liquidated everything before the close...i hope i didn' jump the gun.
> 
> I think its quite exciting, all cashed up and ready to go.
> 
> Cheers,



Doesn't look like you jumped the gun CanOz  

May have been quite a good call


----------



## professor_frink

kennas said:
			
		

> Frink, do you mean buy the open, for the recovery?



Na. Even if it looked like setting up for a long on the open, I'd prefer to trade a breakdown of any rally today.

May be more inclined to look for a late afternoon rally if we don't get smashed too much during the morning session, but would do that strictly as a quick scalp-no o/n holds at all.


----------



## CanOz

professor_frink said:
			
		

> Doesn't look like you jumped the gun CanOz
> 
> May have been quite a good call




Thanks Prof....I think the buying climax was Friday. Now to watch and try and pick the selling climax. Awesome learning experience.

Cheers,


----------



## professor_frink

Anyone got market depth right now- mine's gone awol


----------



## Edwood

morning

we'#re now at 50% retrace of the move out of Jan 7 low, closed my shorts for now, will see how the day develops.  good stuff hey!  great action.  Dow was a bit hairy this am tho


----------



## professor_frink

Edwood said:
			
		

> morning
> 
> we'#re now at 50% retrace of the move out of Jan 7 low, closed my shorts for now, will see how the day develops.  good stuff hey!  great action.  Dow was a bit hairy this am tho



yeah it looks like it's found some short term support- I didn't have any buy depth this morning- It just came back a couple of minutes ago  
50% of that move up on the futs is 5765, with a weekly pivot @ 78

<edit> we have an upside break above the weekly pivot. No chance of me going long on it but- think I'll just wait for the nik to open


----------



## dodgers

Good call guys, got my shorts on yesterday morning (a big difference from last year when I got nailed!)

What's your strategy from here....maybe the chance to increase short position on any technical bounce today up to the 5850 level before continuing the journey down...?


----------



## professor_frink

morning dodgers.

We've bounced after retracing 50% of the move up from the Jan lows, and have found a bit of resistence @ 5800 in this morning's trade. If it bounces from here may depend on what the rest of Asia do- if the nik & HSI bounce off the open, we may have a bottom, otherwise look out below


----------



## Edwood

hi dodgers - not sure what I'll do next to be totally honest I wasn't expecting it to come off this fast!  will just see how the action is today, probably just sit back & wait for it to settle & take my signals around the 1day MA.  5,700 area (61% retrace) is possible but seems content with 50% for the moment & there's a decent gap above to fill!!   anyone got an exact figure on the size of the gap?


----------



## professor_frink

the opening gap was 215.
the gap from today's high to yesterday's low is 179.

Currently the nik is dn 700


----------



## Edwood

professor_frink said:
			
		

> the opening gap was 215.
> the gap from today's high to yesterday's low is 179.
> 
> Currently the nik is dn 700




cool thanks Prof


----------



## Bronte

Todays Gap down:
Notice 6000


----------



## Edwood

Bronte said:
			
		

> Todays Gap down:
> Notice 6000




beautiful chart!  thankfully was short from 6,032


----------



## Edwood

wow quick 100pt rise from the LOD - unforutnately not in it, been away from the screen - would be amazed if that gap was filled!!

(added) should say if it was filled today


----------



## Edwood

some nice action today, you wouldn#'t think there was a major sell off o/n (other than the fact that ASX is a little more lively today)

whats the view in Asia?


----------



## professor_frink

Edwood said:
			
		

> some nice action today, you wouldn#'t think there was a major sell off o/n (other than the fact that ASX is a little more lively today)
> 
> whats the view in Asia?



Howdy Ed.
Take away the size of the gap, and it looked like business as usual  
We are doing a little bit better than the rest of Asia-
Nikkei dn 3.3%
HSI   dn 2.85%
H-shares dn 4.8%
Kospi dn 3.5%
XINA A50 dn 4.9%

And for some reason the U.S futs are up slightly-but not by much.


----------



## Edwood

thansk Prof - seems to be stablising for the moment then

would like to see Dow retrace a 100 or so myself, but might just be biased given the the way ASX recovered out of its open


----------



## Edwood

so lets so if anyone wants to be long overnight


----------



## professor_frink

Edwood said:
			
		

> thansk Prof - seems to be stablising for the moment then
> 
> would like to see Dow retrace a 100 or so myself, but might just be biased given the the way ASX recovered out of its open



There hasn't been any kind of reaction in the U.S to today's trading here....unlike yesterday. Dunno bout it retracing 100, but a definate short squeeze is on the cards me thinks  

And it can't fall again too much- it's gotta rally a little to squeeze out the weak shorts, and suck some more people into thinking it's gunna rally again- only then can the real move down develop


----------



## Edwood

professor_frink said:
			
		

> There hasn't been any kind of reaction in the U.S to today's trading here....unlike yesterday. Dunno bout it retracing 100, but a definate short squeeze is on the cards me thinks
> 
> And it can't fall again too much- it's gotta rally a little to squeeze out the weak shorts, and suck some more people into thinking it's gunna rally again- only then can the real move down develop




sheesh the real move!?  sounds a bit scary...


----------



## >Apocalypto<

professor_frink said:
			
		

> Howdy Ed.
> Take away the size of the gap, and it looked like business as usual
> We are doing a little bit better than the rest of Asia-
> Nikkei dn 3.3%
> HSI   dn 2.85%
> H-shares dn 4.8%
> Kospi dn 3.5%
> XINA A50 dn 4.9%
> 
> And for some reason the U.S futs are up slightly-but not by much.




Frink 

China exchange is up selling has stopped

if you want to see then web address is http://www.sse.com.cn/sseportal/en_us/ps/home.shtml#

could be over quite quickly


----------



## Magdoran

professor_frink said:
			
		

> There hasn't been any kind of reaction in the U.S to today's trading here....unlike yesterday. Dunno bout it retracing 100, but a definate short squeeze is on the cards me thinks
> 
> And it can't fall again too much- it's gotta rally a little to squeeze out the weak shorts, and suck some more people into thinking it's gunna rally again- only then can the real move down develop



I tend to agree with this scenario as the highest probability...


----------



## professor_frink

Trade_It said:
			
		

> Frink
> 
> China exchange is up selling has stopped
> 
> if you want to see then web address is http://www.sse.com.cn/sseportal/en_us/ps/home.shtml#
> 
> could be over quite quickly



Cheers TI. I'm still not entirely sure exactly what I'm looking at with the XINA A50- thought yesterday it had A-share components in it. It still might- It's quite thinly traded, so may not reflect reality too well.



			
				Magdoran said:
			
		

> I tend to agree with this scenario as the highest probability...




You know Mag, I'd probably have a different opinion if we didn't find support so quickly this morning-Pretty well every index I follow rallied off the open this morning- there was very little follow through. 

As is normally the case, it will be interesting to see how it plays out, and how much of it us traders manage to pick up along the way


----------



## Bronte

Bronte said:
			
		

> The SPI has given us plenty of "Tops" around this time of year Edwood.
> 16th February 1983 was the SPI's birthday.
> 24 years :birthday:



I wonder if this is another one ?


----------



## >Apocalypto<

> Cheers TI. I'm still not entirely sure exactly what I'm looking at with the XINA A50- thought yesterday it had A-share components in it. It still might- It's quite thinly traded, so may not reflect reality too well.




Frink it has all on the indexs on the side with a share b share as well


----------



## dodgers

Here the t/a view from macquarie..

Today’s sharp decline likely signals the start of wave 4 within the sequence from the 4758 June 2006 low. This should involve sideways to lower trading over coming weeks, with downside risk to the 5486 January pullback low. The 38.2% retracement point of wave 3 situated at 5601 stands as a likely objective. The technical picture will remain clearly negative providing we do not see gains through resistance at the 5904-09 region.


----------



## Edwood

dodgers said:
			
		

> Here the t/a view from macquarie..
> 
> Today’s sharp decline likely signals the start of wave 4 within the sequence from the 4758 June 2006 low. This should involve sideways to lower trading over coming weeks, with downside risk to the 5486 January pullback low. The 38.2% retracement point of wave 3 situated at 5601 stands as a likely objective. The technical picture will remain clearly negative providing we do not see gains through resistance at the 5904-09 region.




so this is my rough take on what McQ are saying - looks OK, wave 4 targetting bottom of wave iv


----------



## Edwood

looking like a choppy day, best for bollies - same on FTSE last night & Dow this am


----------



## dodgers

and another today...

_It remains likely that wave 4 within the sequence from the 4758 June 2006 low is underway, implying sideways to lower trading over coming weeks, with downside risk to the 5486 January pullback low. The 38.2% retracement point of wave 3 situated at 5601 stands as a likely objective and as important support. Whether the market moves immediately lower or consolidates more of the recent weakness first is not entirely clear. The 5903-09 region should cap gains if tested and the technical picture will remain clearly negative providing it does._


----------



## RichKid

dodgers said:
			
		

> and another today...
> 
> _It remains likely that wave 4 within the sequence from the 4758 June 2006 low is underway, implying sideways to lower trading over coming weeks, with downside risk to the 5486 January pullback low. The 38.2% retracement point of wave 3 situated at 5601 stands as a likely objective and as important support. Whether the market moves immediately lower or consolidates more of the recent weakness first is not entirely clear. The 5903-09 region should cap gains if tested and the technical picture will remain clearly negative providing it does._




Who is the main EW guru at macquarie guys? or names of the main EW analysts there.....just curious, pm me perhaps...I like the analysis though favour it atm, corresponds to a re-test of the previous high/breakout level.


----------



## Edwood

why don't you give them a call RK?

lots of good out of hours action again, anyone else here participating in it or only 'market hours'?


----------



## professor_frink

morning Ed,
looks like the o/n action found a bit of support at the Jan 3 highs. I've put a couple of potential support levels that could be tested if it manages to head lower over the next couple of days. Over the last couple of days, the market has made a couple of failed attempts to break through 5850, looks like any move up is going to have to work it's way through the supply at that level before any rally can be considered sustainable.

In regards to this morning's rally, keep an eye on the nikkei when it opens-we were going well yesterday until it stalled in early morning trade. If the nikkei starts tanking again today, it could be a good heads up to any rally coming to an end.

Cheers


----------



## professor_frink

nikkei drilling down to new lows as I type- If anyone's long- be careful


----------



## Edwood

professor_frink said:
			
		

> nikkei drilling down to new lows as I type- If anyone's long- be careful




thanks for flagging that Prof!  was long earlier for the gap run, but now short.  looking at the weekly chart earlier, MACD isn't close to crossing over yet on this move.  if we get a similar reaction to May 06 at cross we have plenty of downwards to come 

how you getting on with Hang Seng???  brave man!


----------



## professor_frink

Edwood said:
			
		

> thanks for flagging that Prof!  was long earlier for the gap run, but now short.  looking at the weekly chart earlier, MACD isn't close to crossing over yet on this move.  if we get a similar reaction to May 06 at cross we have plenty of downwards to come
> 
> how you getting on with Hang Seng???  brave man!



no worries mate  

Nik is off about 1.2% now. Our market has held up pretty well considering.

HSI is great, but it requires a lot of time to manage, it can turn on you in an instant. I can post in here whilst I've got a trade on with the nik, but there's no way I'll be doing that with the HSI!


----------



## nat

Head and shoulders on 2 min spi ,5770 ish if comes off as per regulation pattern ,NAthan


----------



## nat

well that didnt work to plan,NAthan


----------



## Edwood

not too familiar with H&S Nat, but I think they work better at tops & bottoms - here's a potential inverse one - bit of a funny looking head tho! 






found this on the ASX website about corrections when I had a look for some H&S stuff - some interesting info, esp how a big fall is often followed by a second big downward thrust 

http://www.asx.com.au/investor/warrants/tools/library/tech_analysis_market_dips.htm


----------



## nat

hi yes could be right about h and s patterns thou till in hind site how does one know it was a top or bottom ,it looked so obvious on the 2 min  i thought worth a go ,not too much harm done ,as always the market has the final say .Nathan


----------



## Edwood

nat said:
			
		

> hi yes could be right about h and s patterns thou till in hind site how does one know it was a top or bottom ,it looked so obvious on the 2 min  i thought worth a go ,not to much harm done ,as always the market has the final say .Nathan




yep tops & bottoms are tough & can be expensive trying to pick them!  imo the shorter the timeframe the less reliable the pattern so if you want to use something like H&S you should aim to back up your decision to trade with other indicators.  might pay to do some testing on ASX


----------



## dodgers

RichKid said:
			
		

> Who is the main EW guru at macquarie guys? or names of the main EW analysts there.....just curious, pm me perhaps...I like the analysis though favour it atm, corresponds to a re-test of the previous high/breakout level.




RK, its Frank Bongiorno. Good luck trying to get on their email list though. I tried for a while with no luck. Once I signed up for a futures account with them though I've been getting everything.


----------



## Kauri

OOOOPS....I've left a short on the ASX200 open to try to get some more out of it tonight and I've just been told I'm going out to dinner tonight...


----------



## Kauri

Kauri said:
			
		

> OOOOPS....I've left a short on the ASX200 open to try to get some more out of it tonight and I've just been told I'm going out to dinner tonight...




   Kinda glad I settled for Kentucky Fried Duck in front of the monitor..


----------



## Edwood

nice work Kauri! 

this from the US, no doubt if they bounce we will join in.  altho it doesn't mean we can't go lower first!


----------



## Kauri

Hi Edwood,
               I was lucky I think, at least to get away with putting some Puketutu Teagle on the table instead of going out for dinner.   
               The call/put ratio at market close on the XJO would suggest a gap down opening??  After that.. I think I will spectate for a while and see what develops.   
               Kept the trade open due to call/put ratio on the XJO at close of market. (Also took an intraday short earlier on on CBA on a pattern and the ratio, WOW looks shortable on the close put/call ratio too but will possibly gap down on open too much for an intraday trade     ).
               Cheers
                        Kauri


----------



## Edwood

ahh, cheers for that Kauri - I was wondering where I could find put:call for ASX - is that info readily available??

I'm thinking 60-ish gap down from Fridays close, we'll see how it plays out, anything could happen in this market!

(edited - started rabbitting on & posted a chart - then looked at yours again & its pretty much the same data by the look of it so have deleted)


----------



## Kauri

hi Edwood,
                Top 10 derivatives here, updated hourly during the trading day... usually direct access, but sometimes asks you to log in... is part of Fairfax free site.

http://www.tradingroom.com.au/apps/mkt/derivatives.ac

    Cheers 
             Kauri


----------



## professor_frink

nice work Kauri  

It will be interesting to see if there is any follow through after the open tomorrow- folks have had all weekend to think about what's happened the past week.


----------



## wayneL

Lawrence McMillan's take on the put/call index:

http://redoption.com/commentary/462/


----------



## Kauri

The first hours call/puts....


----------



## Bronte

How the SPI has fallen since 6050 High:


----------



## Kauri

Another little ledge forming, waiting for US direction??


----------



## professor_frink

howdy folks,
just some off topic non spi ramblings again  
Check this madness out-
-911 pts on the HSI


----------



## wayneL

professor_frink said:
			
		

> howdy folks,
> just some off topic non spi ramblings again
> Check this madness out-
> -911 pts on the HSI




Oooeer! Noticed other asian markets thoroughly worked over as well... Singapore down nearly 4% for eg

Nice day-trading conditions but. US markets will gap open big time and it will be a guessing game who takes over from there. The cavalry would be under starters orders I imagine.


----------



## professor_frink

wayneL said:
			
		

> Oooeer! Noticed other asian markets thoroughly worked over as well... Singapore down nearly 4% for eg
> 
> Nice day-trading conditions but. US markets will gap open big time and it will be a guessing game who takes over from there. The cavalry would be under starters orders I imagine.



Beautiful daytrading conditions  
My bet is for a quick and violent short squeeze not long after the open tonight


----------



## wayneL

professor_frink said:
			
		

> My bet is for a quick and violent short squeeze not long after the open tonight



Yes, I'm pulling on my bull disguise (realistic looking, made it from all the bull carcasses lying around  ) and sneaking over to the other side for a bit i think.

Of course, I have made it with quick release catches...


----------



## professor_frink

wayneL said:
			
		

> Yes, I'm pulling on my bull disguise (realistic looking, made it from all the bull carcasses lying around  ) and sneaking over to the other side for a bit i think.
> 
> Of course, I have made it with quick release catches...


----------



## dubiousinfo

Wayne your pics are classics !


----------



## Kauri

Nearly decision time... wonder if the line will hold..


----------



## wayneL

Dow just ticked green


----------



## wayneL

wayneL said:
			
		

> Dow just ticked green



I hung on for the full 8 seconds.  

This pattern is quite common in the US indices.... gap down at s1 or s2, gap fill and linger around pivot point and/or chop between s1 and PP. (sorry no chart, it's running on my other 'puter) This pattern is usually good for 30-50 dow points if you get it right.

The thing I've taken away from tonights action is that the pattern was good for in excess of 100 dow points.

The return of volatility! YAY!


----------



## wayneL

The Bears won in the end, NZ opens on a downer; I suspect more hemorrhaging for the XJO and Asia today.

Good luck.


----------



## Kauri

Taken a short trade looking for an afternoon decline , maybe into tonight...


----------



## Edwood

Kauri said:
			
		

> Taken a short trade looking for an afternoon decline , maybe into tonight...




& off we go!  looks like short covering, hope you're stop was tight Kauri


----------



## Kauri

> & off we go! looks like short covering, hope you're stop was tight Kauri




    Hi Ed..
             Stop was at the red line on my chart...5737 if I remember correctly. I only risk a fixed amount per trade... fixed fractional I think they call it, so only 1R down..
             After i placed the trade I noticed the call/put $A turnover figures blew out from $38mill call..$22mill put at 1300pm to...
 ...........$76mill call..$25mill put at 1400pm....
  another piece of the jigsaw may be dropping into place???
         Cheers
                  Kauri


----------



## >Apocalypto<

what a day boys!! 

went long over the aussie200 cash from IG markets and it just keep going just sold at 4:20 kept this one to a day trade. 110 pts today not bad for a days work!

have a contract over the dow will see how strong the lead up is to there market open i got it at +20 now its +51.


----------



## Edwood

aye nice moves provided you're on the right side of them!  well done Trade-It!  lets hope for more of the same for the rest of the month


----------



## Edwood

Kauri said:
			
		

> Hi Ed..
> Stop was at the red line on my chart...5737 if I remember correctly. I only risk a fixed amount per trade... fixed fractional I think they call it, so only 1R down..
> After i placed the trade I noticed the call/put $A turnover figures blew out from $38mill call..$22mill put at 1300pm to...
> ...........$76mill call..$25mill put at 1400pm....
> another piece of the jigsaw may be dropping into place???
> Cheers
> Kauri




so that was value & not quantity traded?  what were the quantity ratios like?


----------



## >Apocalypto<

wayneL said:
			
		

> Yes, I'm pulling on my bull disguise (realistic looking, made it from all the bull carcasses lying around  ) and sneaking over to the other side for a bit i think.
> 
> Of course, I have made it with quick release catches...





classic pic!!


----------



## CanOz

Kauri said:
			
		

> After i placed the trade I noticed the call/put $A turnover figures blew out from $38mill call..$22mill put at 1300pm to...
> ...........$76mill call..$25mill put at 1400pm....
> another piece of the jigsaw may be dropping into place???
> Cheers
> Kauri




I'm curious Kauri, what are you saying here specifically?


----------



## Edwood

just had a look at the ratio Kauri, 3.04, so I guess all that had to happen was to turn it & let the short covering do the rest!


----------



## Kauri

Edwood said:
			
		

> so that was value & not quantity traded? what were the quantity ratios like?



   Sorry, been out at the shops...   1300pm...


----------



## Kauri

and at 1400pm...


----------



## Kauri

Edwood said:
			
		

> so that was value & not quantity traded? what were the quantity ratios like?




  So I guess that the importaant data to look at is the top section of Turnover, as even though the dollar amount of calls vs puts was 3;1, the total number of trades was still in favour of Puts!!!!
  A bit like vol on some FX platforms where if you put on a trade of $1,000,000 and I do one for $1000 they both count equally as a single trade in the trade totals column, no account of $value is included. So the section with the Top 10 Trades possibly doesn't mean much. This is all assumption....


----------



## nat

Gap of 42 points ,will it get filled today or on to much of a roll upwards?Nathan


----------



## professor_frink

nat said:
			
		

> Gap of 42 points ,will it get filled today or on to much of a roll upwards?Nathan



Hi Nat,

This morning was a good example of using the spread between the cash and futures market, combined with a bit of S/R to play the opening gap. First chart below is a 4 hour chart day + night session, to look for the S/R areas.
2nd chart is the 5 minute chart showing the S/R areas, the close of the cash market yesterday,  and with the spread between the cash and futures plotted below it. Futures rallied after the cash close yesterday, the opening gap pushed the spread out quite a bit, and we were sitting at resistance. Good Gap fade set up as far as I'm concerned  

So far the gap looks like it should be covered


----------



## nat

ok then thanks for that ,i noticed on the 1 hour chart price was banging its head on the 200 ema and big divergence on the 1 hour macd as well for what its worth .

Is that amnibroker charting that you have up there professor ?Am thinking might get it one day when i have the time to work it out bit busy at moment doing other things,i like how you have that spread chart and the idea of auto pivot points be good ,NAthan


----------



## professor_frink

nat said:
			
		

> ok then thanks for that ,i noticed on the 1 hour chart price was banging its head on the 200 ema and big divergence on the 1 hour macd as well for what its worth .
> 
> Is that amnibroker charting that you have up there professor ?Am thinking might get it one day when i have the time to work it out bit busy at moment doing other things,i like how you have that spread chart and the idea of auto pivot points be good ,NAthan



yes sir it is. It makes everything quite handy,once you have all the crap you want to plot coded, that is! 

We've rallied this morning after getting to within 3 pts of covering the gap, which would have made finding an exit a little tricky


----------



## Bronte

A very interesting chart:


----------



## Bronte

Big number 6050 Record High
Monday we saw a 5614 Low
Todays 5832/3 is a 50% Retracement.
Going into "Happy Half Hour'........


----------



## nat

Huge vol going through today so far,somethings going to happen either way maybe,is there something im missing that such vol is going through?,21780 so far today on the day contract,Nathan


----------



## Bronte

Hi Nathan,
The SPI200 March Contract Expiry Date is approaching:
15th March 2007 (usually at noon)


----------



## Edwood

v. frustrating action too - very choppy - I would have thought that when its consolidating / range-bound like this you'd see a decline in volume.  not sure I understand the significance of the expiry Bronte - could it be repositioning or hedging prior do you think?


----------



## Bronte

Bronte said:
			
		

> Big number 6050 Record High
> Monday we saw a 5614 Low
> Todays 5832/3 is a 50% Retracement.
> Going into "Happy Half Hour'........



Hi Edwood,
SPI traders,etc exit their positions in the March contract,
and take up a position in the June 2007 contract.

Well it has all been downhill since the above post.
Now trading at a new day Low of 5774.


----------



## Edwood

Bronte said:
			
		

> Hi Edwood,
> SPI traders,etc exit their positions in the March contract,
> and take up a position in the June 2007 contract.




ah OK, thanks Bronte that makes sense


----------



## Edwood

Bronte said:
			
		

> Hi Edwood,
> SPI traders,etc exit their positions in the March contract,
> and take up a position in the June 2007 contract.
> 
> Well it has all been downhill since the above post.
> Now trading at a new day Low of 5774.




nice fade off fib resistance - I guess given the out of hours action since then the traders were building longs, ie selling down the Mar contract, bringing down the Jun so they could get in cheaper then drive it up for expiry


----------



## nat

Morning who ever,just a question for anyone ,due to it nearly being expiry time on the spi contract there is all this big vol trade going through ,was just wondering how such numbers of contracts going through in a minute isnt really affecting the chart that much and who is the order getting matched to ?Nathan


----------



## Edwood

nat said:
			
		

> Morning who ever,just a question for anyone ,due to it nearly being expiry time on the spi contract there is all this big vol trade going through ,was just wondering how such numbers of contracts going through in a minute isnt really affecting the chart that much and who is the order getting matched to ?Nathan




hi Nat, Bronte summarised it really, with Mar expiry approaching the holders of Mar contracts are switching into Jun contracts to keep their exposure.  my guess is if theres lots of volume but not a lot of price movement they must just be switching directly so no major change in stance


----------



## nat

ok fair enough ,makes chart reading a little bit more difficult ,i think maybe best to stay out of market in couple of weeks leading up to the expiry.NAthan


----------



## professor_frink

morning folks,

updated chart with S/R levels on it below-

possible minor S/R level @ 5940-42 not marked on the chart- if that's broken, next area that could be tested is the 70-80 area. Hope everyone is making a killing off some of these moves


----------



## Edwood

Evening - some good swings the last few days, hope you're all on the right side of them!  have been moving house so unfortunately not able to participate


----------



## dodgers

So what does everyone think... Correction Over?? 

Here's yesterdays tech wrap-up from Macquarie...

_Today’s strength has taken the market through resistance at 5919 which is at face value a positive indication and necessitates consideration of the possibility that an important lowpoint is in place. However, the structure warrants a degree of caution as it is not entirely constructive despite the break. Ongoing price action above 5919 over coming days would strengthen the case for continued uptrend to new highs. A failure to hold levels above support at 5969 would be somewhat negative. A break of lower support at 5895 needs to occur for a clearly bearish pattern to re-emerge._


----------



## MoMoney

If it fails a retest of 5920, then theres more downside, if it holds, consolidates or bounces and runs, correction over!!


----------



## CanOz

Professor or Bronte, or anyone, are you guys trading this recent volitility?

Cheers,


----------



## Bronte

CanOz said:


> Professor or Bronte, or anyone, are you guys trading this recent volitility?



Hi CanOz, 
Yes, we are still "Trading the SPI''
(almost every day now since 1996)
We love this recent volatility


----------



## CanOz

Bronte said:


> Hi CanOz,
> Yes, we are still "Trading the SPI''
> (almost every day now since 1996)
> We love this recent volatility




That move down this afternoon (still not over) was so sudden...how do you trade those?

Cheers,


----------



## Bronte

Yesterday was confirmation of the Double Top
6050 26th February
6052 26th March
Both Big Numbers
One month apart


----------



## Bronte

CanOz said:


> That move down this afternoon (still not over) was so sudden...how do you trade those? Cheers,



We just trade what we see CanOz.


----------



## Edwood

I'm around too C - but on client site so having to resort to 'swing trading' - i.e., watching it come in & out of profit & getting annoyed when I can't close when I want 

Interesting that SPI went that high Bronte - CMC didn't go anywhere near it, nudged over 6,000 but that was it.  Am short on the CMC contract from 5,973 so happy to see this come off after the run up but not confident it will go down much as support looks stronger here in Aus than on US - imho.


----------



## Edwood

closed my short for +43 - lots of bullish harmonics showing on US indicies so a chance of a bounce there which will no doubt affect ASX.  can't trade intra-day at the moment so having to use limit orders.  assuming we don't tank from here will be looking to re-enter shorts higher up


----------



## professor_frink

CanOz said:


> Professor or Bronte, or anyone, are you guys trading this recent volitility?
> 
> Cheers,



Hi CanOz,

yes, trading as per usual for me- focusing on the nikkei, and play around on the HSI, so not really trading the SPI much presently.
In regards to trading moves like the one yesterday, you could have used almost any standard trend following technique to grab a piece of it-looking for lower highs/lows, MA's, etc. 

Not sure if you get volume with the CFD index you're following, but there was a big vol increase as we came out of the lunchtime drift and the down move gathered momentum. So that could be one area to look at. 

Daily pivot points would have given multiple opportunities to enter- after each support level was broken, there was a retracement and test of S1,S2 and the S3 levels yesterday on a 1 minute chart, so that could be another method to look at.

During this correction, most moves have been beginning/ending around S/R levels from the Jan/feb run up, so that could be another thing to look at for possible trades.

If you do decide to do some intraday trading, and come up with a method your comfortable with, you won't be worried at all by moves like yesterday-
they'll be the days you get excited about!


----------



## >Apocalypto<

Edwood said:


> I'm around too C - but on client site so having to resort to 'swing trading' - i.e., watching it come in & out of profit & getting annoyed when I can't close when I want
> 
> Interesting that SPI went that high Bronte - CMC didn't go anywhere near it, nudged over 6,000 but that was it.  Am short on the CMC contract from 5,973 so happy to see this come off after the run up but not confident it will go down much as support looks stronger here in Aus than on US - imho.




Edwood you sure is is the actual SPI and not there aussie200XJO or similar?

I saw the IG aussie200XJO just touched over 6000 but saw that the SPI went right over 6000 to 6050

See attached aussie200 forwards chart that is the IG SPI Contract

Don't yell, if i am wrong!


----------



## wiseguy

Trade_It said:


> Edwood you sure is is the actual SPI and not there aussie200XJO or similar?
> 
> I saw the IG aussie200XJO just touched over 6000 but saw that the SPI went right over 6000 to 6050
> 
> See attached aussie200 forwards chart that is the IG SPI Contract
> 
> Don't yell, if i am wrong!




cmc's aussie200 only reached 6009 on the 26th March.
anyone know how cmc or IG derive their data?


----------



## professor_frink

Edwood said:


> Interesting that SPI went that high Bronte - CMC didn't go anywhere near it, nudged over 6,000 but that was it.  Am short on the CMC contract from 5,973 so happy to see this come off after the run up but not confident it will go down much as support looks stronger here in Aus than on US - imho.




There was contract rollover for the futs in between the 2 highs. Fair value on the June contract will generally be higher as there is longer to expiry.


----------



## Kauri

wiseguy said:


> cmc's aussie200 only reached 6009 on the 26th March.
> anyone know how cmc or IG derive their data?




   They are Market Makers so it is basically their own pricing model based on their assesment of the market, the vol and direction (long/short) of what they hold, and the underlying. Similar to Bookmakers.


----------



## Edwood

Trade_It said:


> Edwood you sure is is the actual SPI and not there aussie200XJO or similar?
> 
> I saw the IG aussie200XJO just touched over 6000 but saw that the SPI went right over 6000 to 6050
> 
> See attached aussie200 forwards chart that is the IG SPI Contract
> 
> Don't yell, if i am wrong!




course not Trade_It!!  

looks like CMC are showing the XJO contract then I guess - never quite sure as it tends to skew (I am using the UK spreadbet contract).   Out of interest how are you guys findign the CFD product in terms of how closely does the price track XJO and whats speed of execution like during market hours?  and does it trade "24 hrs"? (sorry too lazy to look it up myself!)

ta in advance


----------



## >Apocalypto<

Frink and others the SPI does not have any breaks during the day does it? 24hours.

Also the Spi contracts you trade, do they have a dealing spread, or is that only a CFD thing?


----------



## Edwood

Kauri said:


> They are Market Makers so it is basically their own pricing model based on their assesment of the market, the vol and direction (long/short) of what they hold, and the underlying. Similar to Bookmakers.




yes thats right - Am in the process of opening an IB account to try to get around those issues, nearly there!  (its a bit of a process)


----------



## wiseguy

Edwood said:


> course not Trade_It!!
> 
> looks like CMC are showing the XJO contract then I guess - never quite sure as it tends to skew (I am using the UK spreadbet contract).   Out of interest how are you guys findign the CFD product in terms of how closely does the price track XJO and whats speed of execution like during market hours?  and does it trade "24 hrs"? (sorry too lazy to look it up myself!)
> 
> ta in advance




i find the fills on cmc to be pretty quick 1-2 seconds, except during big announcements during the US session, where you can quite often get requoted.


----------



## professor_frink

Trade_It said:


> Frink and others the SPI does not have any breaks during the day does it? 24hours.
> 
> Also the Spi contracts you trade, do they have a dealing spread, or is that only a CFD thing?




yes it has breaks. It's open from 9:50am-4:30pm, then reopens at 5:10pm. It shuts again at 7, or 8 am, depending on U.S daylight saving.

contract specs for SFE products here http://www.sfe.com.au/content/sfe/trading/con_specs.pdf

No dealing spread, that's a CFD thing.


----------



## >Apocalypto<

Edwood said:


> course not Trade_It!!
> 
> looks like CMC are showing the XJO contract then I guess - never quite sure as it tends to skew (I am using the UK spreadbet contract).   Out of interest how are you guys findign the CFD product in terms of how closely does the price track XJO and whats speed of execution like during market hours?  and does it trade "24 hrs"? (sorry too lazy to look it up myself!)
> 
> ta in advance




Glad I could be of assistance Elwood.

It is very close to the real XJO price but it there are varriations time to time.

sanford XJO  	5932.3 		+9.1	
IG aussie 200   5934             +4.1 

but most the time they are on the money only part that buggers me trading it from the normal xjo to the Aussie200 is during the night it can move why back  or spike so it is very hard to place stops either way i am now looking at trading the 10-4 xjo on Pacific and trading the Aussie200 forwards aka SPI on IG.

main advantage of the spi and aussie200xjo mini is no brokerage all u pay is 350 per contract and you recive 5$ a tick but u face a 3 point spread so your 3 down on the get go.

It does piss me off alot that IG wont show u any volume or OI volume on the SPI aussie200XJO or any other indexes

Frink and others are you guys now also on the JUN contract for the SPI?

trying to see how close they are. But seems like they are on the money with there forwards contract.


----------



## Edwood

wiseguy said:


> i find the fills on cmc to be pretty quick 1-2 seconds, except during big announcements during the US session, where you can quite often get requoted.




thanks wiseguy - good to know!  fills on the UK product can be pretty bad, have only kept with it cos profits are tax free but have had enough hence the move to IB.  Might look at a CFD account too for out-of-hours stuff


----------



## professor_frink

Trade_It said:


> Glad I could be of assistance Elwood.
> 
> It is very close to the real XJO price but it there are varriations time to time.
> 
> sanford XJO  	5932.3 		+9.1
> IG aussie 200   5934             +4.1
> 
> but most the time they are on the money only part that buggers me trading it from the normal xjo to the Aussie200 is during the night it can move why back  or spike so it is very hard to place stops either way i am now looking at trading the 10-4 xjo on Pacific and trading the Aussie200 forwards aka SPI on IG.
> 
> It does piss me off alot that IG wont show u any volume or OI volume on the SPI aussie200XJO or any other indexes
> 
> *Frink and others are you guys now also on the JUN contract for the SPI?
> *
> trying to see how close they are. But seems like they are on the money with there forwards contract.



yep- June is the one to watch.


----------



## CanOz

The ASX200 is trying hard to push higher, with two good trys this morning. Keeps retesting 5930.


----------



## >Apocalypto<

professor_frink said:


> yes it has breaks. It's open from 9:50am-4:30pm, then reopens at 5:10pm. It shuts again at 7, or 8 am, depending on U.S daylight saving.
> 
> contract specs for SFE products here http://www.sfe.com.au/content/sfe/trading/con_specs.pdf
> 
> No dealing spread, that's a CFD thing.




ok so IG are 100% on the Forwards contract? Great to hear thanks Frink.


----------



## >Apocalypto<

Edwood said:


> thanks wiseguy - good to know!  fills on the UK product can be pretty bad, have only kept with it cos profits are tax free but have had enough hence the move to IB.  Might look at a CFD account too for out-of-hours stuff




Fills on IG take about 1-3 seconds and the sells are done around the same time just it can take a while to get the damn order section open sometimes when u hit deal or close!


----------



## >Apocalypto<

Guys

Looks like I will join the SPI club

my thoughts on SPI aussie200 Forwards.

I am using a 4hour 1 month time frame still short term but not wild intraday short term.

Support found above 5950 still in a downward move with a descending triangle Bearish continuation pattern.

wait on break of support short trade. lagging indicators are also showing strength on the buying side but price yet to confirm a long trade.

please Guys let me know what you thought of my analysis and time frame.

Frink from what you have seen, do most the mayor moves on the SPI happen during the day?


----------



## professor_frink

Trade_It said:


> Guys
> 
> Looks like I will join the SPI club
> 
> my thoughts on SPI aussie200 Forwards.
> 
> I am using a 4hour 1 month time frame still short term but not wild intraday short term.
> 
> Support found above 5950 still in a downward move with a descending triangle Bearish continuation pattern.
> 
> wait on break of support short trade. lagging indicators are also showing strength on the buying side but price yet to confirm a long trade.
> 
> please Guys let me know what you thought of my analysis and time frame.
> 
> Frink from what you have seen, do most the mayor moves on the SPI happen during the day?



It can move quite a lot overnight, but will do it on smaller volume.

For swing trading, a 4 hour chart is fine- whatever you feel comfortable with

There doesn't appear to be anything wrong with your analysis. Personally, I still think we have plenty of room to fall, but not much potential for upside, so I'd be looking for swings to the shortside.


----------



## Edwood

Trade_It said:


> Guys
> 
> Looks like I will join the SPI club
> 
> I am using a 4hour 1 month time frame still short term but not wild intraday short term.
> 
> Frink from what you have seen, do most the mayor moves on the SPI happen during the day?




Good move Trade_It - it makes for good trading!  For me just looking at 4 hrs would be too long, I have 1min, 5min, & 1hr charts up, but also go out to daily & weekly to look at overall action.  But it depends how much time you have to sit in front of the screen.  The gap opens on ASX are definitely worth getting into, and imo its worth swing trading out of hours, on smaller position size


----------



## >Apocalypto<

Edwood said:


> Good move Trade_It - it makes for good trading!  For me just looking at 4 hrs would be too long, I have 1min, 5min, & 1hr charts up, but also go out to daily & weekly to look at overall action.  But it depends how much time you have to sit in front of the screen.  The gap opens on ASX are definitely worth getting into, and imo its worth swing trading out of hours, on smaller position size




i am yet to really nail a good system on the 1min 5 min charts still fine tuning it

indicators are hard to use in those time frames any pointers guys?

i do use lines and MA's but still working out best MA combo with the lines

Frink on the daily aussie200 I am back to a long position as long as it stays above 5899 support. plus dow futures are up 46 to add to my thinking.


----------



## Edwood

Trade_It said:


> i am yet to really nail a good system on the 1min 5 min charts still fine tuning it
> 
> indicators are hard to use in those time frames any pointers guys?
> 
> i do use lines and MA's but still working out best MA combo with the lines
> 
> Frink on the daily aussie200 I am back to a long position as long as it stays above 5899 support. plus dow futures are up 46 to add to my thinking.




well let us all know when you find it!!  

bollies are good if its range-bound, otherwise simple action around an MA for me.  but overall I would say that ASX likes to trend - so once its made up its mind where its going it will often go in that direction for the rest of the day so don't try to go against it, even if its levelled out as it will often continue the trend late in the session.

all the best!


----------



## professor_frink

Trade_It said:


> i am yet to really nail a good system on the 1min 5 min charts still fine tuning it
> 
> indicators are hard to use in those time frames any pointers guys?
> 
> i do use lines and MA's but still working out best MA combo with the lines
> 
> Frink on the daily aussie200 I am back to a long position as long as it stays above 5899 support. plus dow futures are up 46 to add to my thinking.




Good luck on the long TI, hope it works out for you

Looking for MA based ideas hey-

http://www.trading-naked.com/FloorTraderMethod.htm

That article should be able to give you an idea on how they can be used intraday.


----------



## >Apocalypto<

Thanks alot for the help and info Guys  

To tell the truth I have failed very badly trading on the intra day.

lost a 1000 on the mini's since Jan but on the Daily and weekly trades I do quite well.

Intraday is so damn fast i will have a good look at the link frink


----------



## Edwood

heres a look at todays action on my 1min chart Trade It - lots of signals for longs, & adding to longs


----------



## caribean

Hi Prof.Frink, i'm with you ,i think 5375 is my target area, though at this moment i can't trade the SPI futures (between brokers), call & put options my only instrument...


----------



## Edwood

Trade_It said:


> To tell the truth I have failed very badly trading on the intra day.




prob best to stick with what works then Trade_It & don't put money on intra-day until you get a strategy that you know works.

also its worth keeping a log - I mark up my charts in real time as the signals play out, including entries & when I close the number of points gain or loss & take a screen shot at the end of every day.  means I can go back & see what the action was like, how I traded it and how it could be improved


----------



## Edwood

might have our short entry opportunity soon Prof - have seen a couple of counts floating around suggesting we were in 4 and now in 5 on this retrace


----------



## professor_frink

Edwood said:


> might have our short entry opportunity soon Prof - have seen a couple of counts floating around suggesting we were in 4 and now in 5 on this retrace




Just opened a short @ 35 looking for a swing down Ed We've hit some resistance @ 40, recent run up looks way too steep.


----------



## Bronte

We are with you prof.
Sold 6036


----------



## professor_frink

Bronte said:


> We are with you prof.
> Sold 6036



You just looking at an intraday swing Bronte or something a bit longer?


----------



## Bronte

Mostly Intraday prof
Now 6030 +6
E.O.M trade.
& you ??


----------



## professor_frink

Bronte said:


> Mostly Intraday prof
> Now 6030 +6
> E.O.M trade.
> & you ??



Looking for a hold over the weekend- will see how the rest of the day pans out before deciding. Hopefully it won't go against me too much this arvo


----------



## Edwood

professor_frink said:


> Just opened a short @ 35 looking for a swing down Ed We've hit some resistance @ 40, recent run up looks way too steep.




am also short but from lower down - limited to trading out of hours at the moment, doing some consulting so would be a bit rude to sit here with my system up 

fwiw both McHugh & EWI have global markets about to roll over & start vomiting  - mind you they are renowned bears.  EWI think wave 3 down has begun in the US...


----------



## Bronte

We will be selling again at 6044
Given half a chance.
Now back to 6035/6


----------



## professor_frink

Edwood said:


> am also short but from lower down - limited to trading out of hours at the moment, doing some consulting so would be a bit rude to sit here with my system up
> 
> fwiw both McHugh & EWI have global markets about to roll over & start vomiting  - mind you they are renowned bears.  EWI think wave 3 down has begun in the US...



How much lower Ed? Could be a chance to add to your position 



Bronte said:


> We will be selling again at 6044
> Given half a chance.
> Now back to 6035/6



Looks like you may get that chance Bronte. Wouldn't be too surprised to see 50 tested at some stage today.

My short's taking heat already!! If it keeps going like this I may have to start averaging down:nono:


----------



## Kauri

Another big vol day as well, the XJO is showing 427,000,000 so far at 12.00 pm.. someone is buying in big yesterday and today??


----------



## Bronte

We have seen 6043 High
Had Sell orders in since the Open at 6043/4
No fills as yet.
Now 6038


----------



## >Apocalypto<

Guys had some luck so far to day trading the IG cash200 mini XJO cuz of the lower spread 2points compared to 3 on SPI.

Going long off mini pull backs taking very small chunks but they are adding up!

Still got to get my nerves and eye right on some but overall its a success so far.

Thanks for all you help and info Elwood and Frink. Elwood i am following the trend and going with the buying flow cuz today is a up day. Look forward to hearing more about that MA u use.

My action so far entries and exits.


----------



## Edwood

Trade_It said:


> Guys had some luck so far to day trading the IG cash200 mini XJO cuz of the lower spread 2points compared to 3 on SPI.
> 
> Going long off mini pull backs taking very small chunks but they are adding up!
> 
> Still got to get my nerves and eye right on some but overall its a success so far.
> 
> Thanks for all you help and info Elwood and Frink. Elwood i am following the trend and going with the buying flow cuz today is a up day. Look forward to hearing more about that MA u use.
> 
> My action so far entries and exits.




nice work Trade_It!  small chunks add up to big chunks over time


----------



## Edwood

professor_frink said:


> How much lower Ed? Could be a chance to add to your position




well lets just hope it holds up so I can get in later!



professor_frink said:


> If it keeps going like this I may have to start averaging down:nono:




tsk-tsk (says he who may well be doing the same later )


----------



## Bronte

Bronte said:


> We have seen 6043 High
> Had Sell orders in since the Open at 6043/4
> No fills as yet.
> Now 6038



6036 Low


----------



## professor_frink

Edwood said:


> tsk-tsk (says he who may well be doing the same later )




Only way to trade Ed- scale in till you get it some profit


----------



## Edwood

professor_frink said:


> Only way to trade Ed- scale in till you get it some profit




yes I have to confess to it sometimes Prof but not my preference to be honest - have been spanked hard a couple of times doing that - probably because I got in too big too soon & didn't have a clear exit plan & couldn't think straight.  if I do it now I'll start small & add aggressively when it looks like turning.  still better to just be out if its going against you tho - imo


----------



## Bronte

Bronte said:


> We will be selling again at 6044
> Given half a chance.
> Now back to 6035/6



6045 High  
Now 6036 +4 +8
Some profit taken.


----------



## >Apocalypto<

Edwood said:


> yes I have to confess to it sometimes Prof but not my preference to be honest - have been spanked hard a couple of times doing that - probably because I got in too big too soon & didn't have a clear exit plan & couldn't think straight.  if I do it now I'll start small & add aggressively when it looks like turning.  still better to just be out if its going against you tho - imo





Ed I know all about that , so nice seeing a compounding loss stack up!


----------



## professor_frink

Edwood said:


> yes I have to confess to it sometimes Prof but not my preference to be honest - have been spanked hard a couple of times doing that - probably because I got in too big too soon & didn't have a clear exit plan & couldn't think straight.  if I do it now I'll start small & add aggressively when it looks like turning.  still better to just be out if its going against you tho - imo



Yeah, if you go all in straight away, then trouble will surely follow! I've only gone in light today, so have room to add if it moves against me, but still looks good.


----------



## wiseguy

just thought i'd add my 2 cents while i wait for this lunch session to finsh  
theres also a number of divergence signals developing on other time frames.


----------



## >Apocalypto<

Guy i agree it is really turing into a stage 3 top having a hard time keeping the bull runs going

i see weakness coming as well


----------



## Bronte

Bronte said:


> 6045 High
> Now 6036 +4 +8
> Some profit taken.



Obvious Support at 6036


----------



## Bronte

professor_frink said:


> Just opened a short @ 35 looking for a swing down Ed We've hit some resistance @ 40, recent run up looks way too steep.



Where did you place your *stoploss* professor_frink?


----------



## professor_frink

Bronte said:


> Where did you place your *stoploss* professor_frink?



inital stop @ 6120. Will add to the position @ 6060 if required.


----------



## Edwood

Friday afternoon - could be telling if we get a sell into the w/end or its held up into the cash close then sold off...


----------



## Bronte

Bronte said:


> *We will be selling again at 6044*
> Given half a chance.



Looking very good lads
*Now 6030 +14* 
SPI trade so far:


----------



## Kauri

Have gone short now, may be breaking down...


----------



## Bronte

Now 6024  +20 points
Have a good weekend


----------



## wiseguy

Bronte said:


> Now 6024  +20 points
> Have a good weekend




same to you, good sir! :bier:


----------



## Edwood

Kauri said:


> Have gone short now, may be breaking down...




swift drop there Kauri - did you close?  tempted to add to my short now but will wait & see how FTSE trades - still an upside risk here imo, despite what EWI & the rest think


----------



## Kauri

Edwood said:


> swift drop there Kauri - did you close? tempted to add to my short now but will wait & see how FTSE trades - still an upside risk here imo, despite what EWI & the rest think




Still in......, waiting to see how the northern world goes too, FTSE and Wall St both flirting with small drops so far but a lot of Data coming out in the US tonight... don't think we will see much of a guide untill then... another late night coming up I think.  :cup: :sleeping:


----------



## >Apocalypto<

that was a very sharp dip and rebound at 7 - 7.30 could have made some cash and ruined you at the same time lol

still it is hard to call right now it is pushing so hard to close above 6000 on xjo 

every time it free falls it is bought right back up.


----------



## Kauri

Still riding my short on the ASX200, looking to tie in with a possible new downleg on the daily XJO?? (looks better on this chart but with IG I was in at 5985 with an initial stop at a close above 6005, so RR is ranging between 1 and 2 currently.)


----------



## Edwood

nice work Kauri!  I added to my short in the after hours session on Friday but wished I hadn't was thinking about it all w/end - looks as tho its playing out OK now tho


----------



## CanOz

Hi all. I've still got my short and didn't get stopped out on Friday...but only by a whisker. 

Looks like it could finally be settling into a trend again.

Cheers,


----------



## Kauri

At an interesting stage on the 5 min chart...


----------



## Edwood

looks bearish if that support line goes...


----------



## Kauri

Edwood said:


> looks bearish if that support line goes...




 Edwood
   Yes its looking that way, the dow and footsie are turning down now and the nikkie is well off... so far..


----------



## Edwood

Kauri said:


> Edwood
> Yes its looking that way, the dow and footsie are turning down now and the nikkie is well off... so far..




suits me sir!  I wonder if the others held over the w/end as well? (Prof, Bronte etc)


----------



## professor_frink

Edwood said:


> suits me sir!  I wonder if the others held over the w/end as well? (Prof, Bronte etc)




howdy Ed,

Still short 

Monster selloff on the nikkei this arvo. It was up over 140 points at one stage this morning, and is now down nearly 300


----------



## wiseguy

good to hear some of you are still short.
I got stopped out by that last spike. *grumble*grumble*


----------



## professor_frink

wiseguy said:


> good to hear some of you are still short.
> I got stopped out by that last spike. *grumble*grumble*




which spike was that wiseguy?


----------



## wiseguy

professor_frink said:


> which spike was that wiseguy?





i think it was around 4:06pm Friday. knicked it by 2 points too


----------



## professor_frink

wiseguy said:


> i think it was around 4:06pm Friday. knicked it by 2 points too



Ouch! Sorry to hear that. Always a bad feeling when something like that happens, and something I'm all too familiar with


----------



## Edwood

bummer wiseguy - sometimes worth trading without stops if you think its near a turn - well, with mental stops I guess

I wonder what happened to Euler and if he's still around?  would be interesting to hear what the market profile view is...


----------



## Edwood

wicked rally, got out of my short last night for +60 but gave 22 back this morning while Dow was still open.  sheesh - glad I closed my short!


----------



## >Apocalypto<

Guys this is why i am only looking for longs while we are still in this bullish situation.

I tried to short and always get my fingers burned very quickly due to my timing.

I was thinking of you guys this morning when I went long! I hoped you where all out! Jeez did it take off!


----------



## >Apocalypto<

XJO closed above 6000

Wow now that is an interesting development!


----------



## professor_frink

My short is dead and buried- gunna leave the o/n positions to the rest of you folk and stick with intraday for awhile


----------



## CanOz

professor_frink said:


> My short is dead and buried- gunna leave the o/n positions to the rest of you folk and stick with intraday for awhile




LOL! Mine too. I closed out before my stop, having gone long on another contract an hour early....figure i'd ditch one once i figured out which way the bloody thing was going. Then i took a quick profit before close on the long, only to see it shoot higher 

Oh well, cut the loss short and made a little on the long.

Funny markets these days....

Cheers,


----------



## >Apocalypto<

Interesting chart situation to look at there is a bullish channel for sure right now on the Aussie200 

I went long yesterday morning and took profits at 4:20ish

But i can see more entry's as long as it holds in this channel.


I am leaning towards the red dotted line happening but with the massive volatility at the moment who knows!


----------



## Bronte

professor_frink said:


> inital stop @ 6120. Will add to the position @ 6060 if required.



Hope you didn't professor.
6133 High today.


----------



## Bronte

Edwood said:


> suits me sir!  I wonder if the others held over the w/end as well? (Prof, *Bronte* etc)



No heroics for me Edwood
I enjoyed my weekend


----------



## Edwood

Bronte - very sensible.


----------



## professor_frink

Bronte said:


> Hope you didn't professor.
> 6133 High today.



No,nothing like that 
Not going to have a position that was up nearly 100 turn into an exercise in averaging down!


----------



## >Apocalypto<

Have a great Easter fellas


----------



## Edwood

so we are off to the moon!  anyone for 7,000 this year? 

looks as tho EWI and McHugh need to be added to the list of contrarian indicators...  altho to be fair at least McHugh had an alternate count


----------



## professor_frink

Edwood said:


> so we are off to the moon!  anyone for 7,000 this year?
> 
> looks as tho EWI and McHugh need to be added to the list of contrarian indicators...  altho to be fair at least McHugh had an alternate count



Howdy Ed, hope you had a good easter.

looks a little overbought right now. Personally can't see too much upside today. Won't be trading that opinion, so don't care if I'm wrong

Given the current state of the market, 7,000 wouldn't surprise me, and neither would 5,000 :dunno:


----------



## Edwood

hi Prof, Easter was good thanks, went down to one of the lakes & lazed around - just what we all needed!

I see the biggest corporate takeover in Australian history was announced today - either someone is buying in at the top, or thinks there is still some value out there...

a swing taking in 5,000 & 7,000 could be fun!


----------



## >Apocalypto<

Edwood said:


> hi Prof, Easter was good thanks, went down to one of the lakes & lazed around - just what we all needed!
> 
> I see the biggest corporate takeover in Australian history was announced today - either someone is buying in at the top, or thinks there is still some value out there...
> 
> a swing taking in 5,000 & 7,000 could be fun!




I am liking 5000 as well!


----------



## >Apocalypto<

What a morning went long twice and 2 great stops! Lucky they were tight or I would have undone heaps of good work from this & last week! 

Jeez I was bluffed this morning!  

Any one pull any shorts?


----------



## Edwood

hard luck Trade It, glad to hear you were playing with protection!

the opening spikes & gaps are good to get your head around with ASX - they make for some good fades.  the last 4 days, including today, its traded away from the opening move for most of the session.  one option is to take the fade on the spike, another to wait for a failed retest of the spike before entering.

looks as tho Dow might sell off a bit tonight as well fwiw


----------



## professor_frink

Edwood said:


> hard luck Trade It, glad to hear you were playing with protection!
> 
> the opening spikes & gaps are good to get your head around with ASX - they make for some good fades.  the last 4 days, including today, its traded away from the opening move for most of the session.  one option is to take the fade on the spike, another to wait for a failed retest of the spike before entering.
> 
> looks as tho Dow might sell off a bit tonight as well fwiw





A mighty impressive selloff, and on friday the 13th no less 

Been basically the same story on the nikkei. There was just enough of a rally on the nikkei this morning to shake me out of my short I'm pretty wary of holding over lunch unless I'm sitting on something really nice, which given my horribly late entry, meant I didn't have too much of a cushion. well over 150 pts further south, and I'm yet to re enter! Think I'll just let it go for today.

HSI was a bit weird though today, considering what the SPI and nik were doing- it was basically chopping around from negative to positive until the nikkei re opened. I even managed a couple of longs on it!

Why do you say the DOW might sell off Ed? Looks pretty flat right now.


----------



## Edwood

hey Prof - oh yeah Fri 13th!  my bro is 40 today!  I'd better call him quick....

Dow looks to be up against resistance around this zone - around 61% retrace of the drop off the high - & MACD is about to cross again on the 10 day signaling a down swing.  might not amount to much but we're still within the realms of the start of wave 3 down, according to McHugh & EWI, so until that view is eliminated the potential is still there.  I'm not currently short Dow tho, only ASX

I'll send you a couple of reports


----------



## professor_frink

Edwood said:


> hey Prof - oh yeah Fri 13th!  my bro is 40 today!  I'd better call him quick....
> 
> Dow looks to be up against resistance around this zone - around 61% retrace of the drop off the high - & MACD is about to cross again on the 10 day signaling a down swing.  might not amount to much but we're still within the realms of the start of wave 3 down, according to McHugh & EWI, so until that view is eliminated the potential is still there.  I'm not currently short Dow tho, only ASX
> 
> I'll send you a couple of reports




Sorry Ed, the way your last post was worded, it sounded like it was already heading south. Or maybe it was just the way I read it. Stupid professor 

Definetely think another leg down is a possibility at some stage- if I'd been in there selling the open this morning on the SPI, I'd be seriously contemplating an o/n hold


----------



## >Apocalypto<

> looks as tho Dow might sell off a bit tonight as well fwiw




Elwood

Last night/yesterday I saw the dow break its short term on 4hour chart was so close to going short but cuz it had not broke main line I used all my strength and said no.

And it would have been another stop out if I had taken in.

It is still yet to really test old highs, feels looks sluggish to me.


----------



## Frank D

*Frank Dilernia*


----------



## >Apocalypto<

Frank D said:


> *Frank Dilernia*




If the arrows are your trades then it looks like you have been having a lot of fun frank!

excelet charts and trading style!


----------



## professor_frink

Very nice work Frank


----------



## CanOz

Trade_It said:


> Elwood
> 
> Last night/yesterday I saw the dow break its short term on 4hour chart was so close to going short but cuz it had not broke main line I used all my strength and said no.
> 
> And it would have been another stop out if I had taken in.
> 
> It is still yet to really test old highs, feels looks sluggish to me.




I'm close to going short the Wall St. mini, just waiting confirmation on pivots.

Cheers,


----------



## Edwood

yes tempted too, but it is counter-trend so risky

I'll be sleeping at the open so might look to stick a limit on around 12,570 looking for a sell down from there with stop above 12,611


----------



## CanOz

Edwood said:


> yes tempted too, but it is counter-trend so risky
> 
> I'll be sleeping at the open so might look to stick a limit on around 12,570 looking for a sell down from there with stop above 12,611




I think i'll see it open....should be interesting. 

Cheers,


----------



## Edwood

just had a look at weekly ASX200 & saw we cracked 800pts above the 50ma this morning - farthest we've been above the ma this bull market.  The Feb correction we got to 700-ish pts and May '06 also 700-ish.


----------



## CanOz

Edwood said:


> just had a look at weekly ASX200 & saw we cracked 800pts above the 50ma this morning - farthest we've been above the ma this bull market.  The Feb correction we got to 700-ish pts and May '06 also 700-ish.




Insane isnt it! Too much money, no home i say, very impulsive move...wonder what the opposite reaction will look like lol!!!

Cheers,


----------



## Edwood

did you bother staying up Can?  I didn't put my order on as it turned out, the idea would have been ok for 30-odd points, but only if I'd stayed up to watch it, otherwise would've stopped out for -30.  (btw will post Dow stuff on the Dow thread in future...)

while the ASX is still grinding up, think I'll sit back for a bit & just wait for some topping signals - could have another 150+ in it yet (so I guess I should go long but couldn't look myself in the mirror if I did that)


----------



## CanOz

Edwood said:


> did you bother staying up Can?  I didn't put my order on as it turned out, the idea would have been ok for 30-odd points, but only if I'd stayed up to watch it, otherwise would've stopped out for -30.  (btw will post Dow stuff on the Dow thread in future...)
> 
> while the ASX is still grinding up, think I'll sit back for a bit & just wait for some topping signals - could have another 150+ in it yet (so I guess I should go long but couldn't look myself in the mirror if I did that)




Yes, i stayed up and went short just after the open, watched it drop and then come back and hit my stop, oh well...worth a try. Should have known to fight the trend...only a tiny loss though, about the same as i was up after the open, 300 USD or so. I went to bed at 1 am my time here, so 3 am Melbourne time. I don't think i'll bother doing that again.

I think i'm with you, wait until it tops out.

Cheers,


----------



## CanOz

Edwood said:


> did you bother staying up Can?  I didn't put my order on as it turned out, the idea would have been ok for 30-odd points, but only if I'd stayed up to watch it, otherwise would've stopped out for -30.  (btw will post Dow stuff on the Dow thread in future...)
> 
> while the ASX is still grinding up, think I'll sit back for a bit & just wait for some topping signals - could have another 150+ in it yet (so I guess I should go long but couldn't look myself in the mirror if I did that)




Yes, i stayed up and went short just after the open, watched it drop and then come back and hit my stop, oh well...worth a try. Should have known to fight the trend...only a tiny loss though, about the same as i was up after the open, 300 USD or so. I went to bed at 1 am my time here, so 3 am Melbourne time. I don't think i'll bother doing that again.

I think i'm with you, wait until it tops out.

Cheers,


----------



## Edwood

afternoon - longer-ish term I see McHugh has mid 6,400's fwiw to keep his EW count valid for the current action (ie currently in w5), Twiggs thinks we're heading for 6,350-area.  not sure what the equivalent is in SPI terms 

nice spike at the open today, did anyone here fade it?

Frank Dilernia - can you talk me through your chart from Friday pls?  not sure I follow whats going on but it looks as though we are at your target for April highs?  thanks in advance


----------



## Edwood

Edwood said:


> Frank Dilernia - can you talk me through your chart from Friday pls?  not sure I follow whats going on but it looks as though we are at your target for April highs?  thanks in advance




found your thread Frank & am just reading the AMT report - is that report your work as well?  good stuff if it is!


----------



## Frank D

Edwood,

there is another thread running on the SPI, that might help you out regarding April highs.

https://www.aussiestockforums.com/forums/showthread.php?t=5846

AMT report is for subscribers (bi-weekly) on US markets and SPI, similar as to what's going on in the other thread.

Regards,
Frank Dilernia


----------



## Edwood

Frank D said:


> Edwood,
> 
> there is another thread running on the SPI, that might help you out regarding April highs.
> 
> https://www.aussiestockforums.com/forums/showthread.php?t=5846
> 
> AMT report is for subscribers (bi-weekly) on US markets and SPI, similar as to what's going on in the other thread.
> 
> Regards,
> Frank Dilernia




hi Frank - yep thats the thread I found - cheers for that.  interesting stuff.  so given the April SPI target high is taken out you would now look for the next high, around 6,310 on one of your charts?


----------



## Frank D

Edwood,

Short term I’m looking for a 2-day stall/rotation, this lines up with an UP bias on Thursday following my systems. However, between now and Thursday the market can be anywhere, if it is still trading above the 3-month highs on Thursday then I favour a move to 6310, that won’t the case if by Thursday we are another 100 points lower and breaking the 3-day lows.

I never know how far any day will move. If I’m in a trade I ‘hope’ I don’t get stopped out and I ‘hope’ it reaches my exit zones. Everything in the market is random, there are no guarantees, other than following strict trading rules.

With all trends price has a natural flow that rotates between central zones and extends onward as Time moves forward. This relationship forms levels in the market that hinders Price from moving in straight lines, it moves between support and resistance. As Time moves forward support and resistance moves along with it. Knowing where support and resistance zones lie is a critical cog in the wheel of trading, because it’s these levels that become part of a trading plan. 

Support and resistance isn’t some static level in the market that never moves. Support and resistance is dynamic, it constantly moves with the start of each new timeframe. Identifying and clearly defining support and resistance becomes part of my risk/reward strategy. Identifying good risk/reward trades does not guarantee success; however not identifying good risk/reward trades almost always guarantees failure.

Yesterday’s exits zones are an example and hopefully today’s exits zones (6193) are an example. But in reality I never know any outcome until after the event, so I don’t know if 6310 will reach, but by Thursday I should have a better idea.

*Frank Dilernia*

https://www.aussiestockforums.com/forums/showthread.php?t=5846&page=2


----------



## Edwood

Bronte said:


> Hi Edwood,
> It was a nice spike.
> What do you mean by "fade it" ?




hi Bronte - basically to fade a spike

http://www.investopedia.com/terms/f/fade.asp

I like this bit from the definition "It requires little in the way of complicated analysis...."  suits me sir!


----------



## Bronte

Edwood said:


> hi Bronte - basically to fade a spike
> http://www.investopedia.com/terms/f/fade.asp
> I like this bit from the definition "It requires little in the way of complicated analysis...."  suits me sir!



Thanks for that information Edwood.


----------



## Edwood

Bronte said:


> Thanks for that information Edwood.




no worries B - (added) thats the nice thing about ASX tho hey, lots of opening spikes, requiring little complicated analysis!


----------



## Edwood

Frank D said:


> Edwood,
> 
> Short term I’m looking for a 2-day stall/rotation, this lines up with an UP bias on Thursday following my systems. However, between now and Thursday the market can be anywhere, if it is still trading above the 3-month highs on Thursday then I favour a move to 6310, that won’t the case if by Thursday we are another 100 points lower and breaking the 3-day lows.
> 
> I never know how far any day will move. If I’m in a trade I ‘hope’ I don’t get stopped out and I ‘hope’ it reaches my exit zones. Everything in the market is random, there are no guarantees, other than following strict trading rules.
> 
> With all trends price has a natural flow that rotates between central zones and extends onward as Time moves forward. This relationship forms levels in the market that hinders Price from moving in straight lines, it moves between support and resistance. As Time moves forward support and resistance moves along with it. Knowing where support and resistance zones lie is a critical cog in the wheel of trading, because it’s these levels that become part of a trading plan.
> 
> Support and resistance isn’t some static level in the market that never moves. Support and resistance is dynamic, it constantly moves with the start of each new timeframe. Identifying and clearly defining support and resistance becomes part of my risk/reward strategy. Identifying good risk/reward trades does not guarantee success; however not identifying good risk/reward trades almost always guarantees failure.
> 
> Yesterday’s exits zones are an example and hopefully today’s exits zones (6193) are an example. But in reality I never know any outcome until after the event, so I don’t know if 6310 will reach, but by Thursday I should have a better idea.




Hi again Frank - thanks for the background - I like the philosophy - I can think of loads of questions to ask but will spare them and keep an eye on your thread...  one sticks out tho - do you really think its random?

thanks again for sharing your work!


----------



## Frank D

Edwood,

For example, say you had your system that has performed over the past few years @60%, so every time you entered a trade you expected to win 60% of the time, however the sequence of wins and losses are *random.*

You don’t know over 20 trades if your trades end up being; win/loss win/loss win/win, or you have 12 wins in a row followed by 8 losses. It is a *random *occurrence.

The only thing you do know is that if you follow your stop loss rules you should know that every time you get stopped out your loss is XX amount.

However, you won’t know how much your wins are going to be, even though your system runs at 60% you never know how much money you are going to make every time you trade. Again profits are a* random *outcome because exit zones might or might not be reached

Everything we do in the market falls under* ‘randomness’*

You trade with ‘probability’ i.e systems; an expectation to which something is likely to happen, or in some cases drawing conclusions about the likelihood of potential events occuring, but it’s characterized by *randomness* or uncertainty. More precisely, probability is used for modelling patterns under the same circumstances producing different results.

*Random *variables or in this case ‘price patterns’ then become a *random* expectations,  it does not describe the actual outcome of the pattern, but rather describes the possible, as-yet-undetermined outcomes in terms of real numbers.

*Frank Dilernia*


----------



## Edwood

ahh I see - not what I was thinking when you said random.  am reading market wizards (again!) at the moment and they all talk about knowing your maximum risk.  I guess if you think about randomness in that way then you want to know your maximum risk in terms of the potential loss from stop outs across a large data set.  have to be honest & say that altho I've tested my system I like to think (maybe I'm kidding myself?) that if I'm going into a trade the results won't be random.  now you've got me thinking that I need to go back through my data again... prob not a bad thing so thanks for the indirect nudge Frank!


----------



## >Apocalypto<

Frank D said:


> Edwood,
> 
> Short term I’m looking for a 2-day stall/rotation, this lines up with an UP bias on Thursday following my systems. However, between now and Thursday the market can be anywhere, if it is still trading above the 3-month highs on Thursday then I favour a move to 6310, that won’t the case if by Thursday we are another 100 points lower and breaking the 3-day lows.
> 
> I never know how far any day will move. If I’m in a trade I ‘hope’ I don’t get stopped out and I ‘hope’ it reaches my exit zones. Everything in the market is random, there are no guarantees, other than following strict trading rules.
> 
> With all trends price has a natural flow that rotates between central zones and extends onward as Time moves forward. This relationship forms levels in the market that hinders Price from moving in straight lines, it moves between support and resistance. As Time moves forward support and resistance moves along with it. Knowing where support and resistance zones lie is a critical cog in the wheel of trading, because it’s these levels that become part of a trading plan.
> 
> Support and resistance isn’t some static level in the market that never moves. Support and resistance is dynamic, it constantly moves with the start of each new timeframe. Identifying and clearly defining support and resistance becomes part of my risk/reward strategy. Identifying good risk/reward trades does not guarantee success; however not identifying good risk/reward trades almost always guarantees failure.
> 
> Yesterday’s exits zones are an example and hopefully today’s exits zones (6193) are an example. But in reality I never know any outcome until after the event, so I don’t know if 6310 will reach, but by Thursday I should have a better idea.
> 
> *Frank Dilernia*
> 
> https://www.aussiestockforums.com/forums/showthread.php?t=5846&page=2




Frank that was very beautifully put.

Now that is some thing I always see support and resistance are constantly changing and then there's the time frames!

I just hope it does pull back so I can place another entry on the aussie200xjo in case your rig'het. 

Great post.


----------



## CanOz

Edwood said:


> no worries B - (added) thats the nice thing about ASX tho hey, lots of opening spikes, requiring little complicated analysis!





Could be an opportunity to do the same on Wall St. tonite!


----------



## Edwood

nice one Can, hope you took the trade!  US opens too late for me unfortunately, 1:30am here

I see Aus sold off into the close and gave up all gains for the day out of hours


----------



## Edwood

first trend line gone, nothing to be too excited about - closed first short, will see where we go from here


----------



## Edwood

just as an update - bounced off the lower trend line so support intact.  based on recent history we'll prob see another grind up, but worth keeping an eye on the trend line for shorts


----------



## Edwood

sheesh looked like a choppy sloppy day today!  not much fun sitting through that mess


----------



## CanOz

Edwood said:


> sheesh looked like a choppy sloppy day today!  not much fun sitting through that mess




Certainly was a tug of war between the bulls and the bears today, Wall St. will be interesting tonite, surely it can't continue this rate? Its overbought well and truley.

Cheers,


----------



## Edwood

spiking up already pre-open tho Can, they're not even bothering with buying the dips anymore!  it was flat there for a few hours so reckon that was enough cause for them to buy it  

options expiry today in the US so might be some volatility, altho lately some have been dead affairs - they seem to do the work in the 2 days before then sit it there for expiry day

maybe we should set up an Index thread, not much SPI conversation going on here (mind you doesn't help that I'm trading a spreadbet instrument based on ASX200 & not the actual SPI ha ha!  prob driving the old hands to despair)


----------



## CanOz

Edwood said:


> spiking up already pre-open tho Can, they're not even bothering with buying the dips anymore!  it was flat there for a few hours so reckon that was enough cause for them to buy it
> 
> options expiry today in the US so might be some volatility, altho lately some have been dead affairs - they seem to do the work in the 2 days before then sit it there for expiry day
> 
> maybe we should set up an Index thread, not much SPI conversation going on here (mind you doesn't help that I'm trading a spreadbet instrument based on ASX200 & not the actual SPI ha ha!  prob driving the old hands to despair)




I think its a great idea to setup a thread for trading other indexes, i'm sure Prof and TI would be into it.

I won't have time tonite, but i will do it tomorrow.

Cheers,


----------



## Edwood

CanOz said:


> I think its a great idea to setup a thread for trading other indexes, i'm sure Prof and TI would be into it.
> 
> I won't have time tonite, but i will do it tomorrow.
> 
> Cheers,




sounds good Can!  a general tradering thread - with a bit of banter would be good

just trying to decide if its worth getting into the Dow pre-open...   tempted to fade that spike


----------



## wayneL

CanOz said:


> I think its a great idea to setup a thread for trading other indexes, i'm sure Prof and TI would be into it.
> 
> I won't have time tonite, but i will do it tomorrow.
> 
> Cheers,



There are a couple of existing threads. I would be into it if others were too.

https://www.aussiestockforums.com/forums/showthread.php?t=3491&highlight=day+trading+S&P+500

https://www.aussiestockforums.com/forums/showthread.php?t=3485&highlight=day+trading+S&P+500


----------



## Edwood

how about we start with a clean slate - no egos, no willy waving - just tradering, general chit chat

looking like a BIG gap up on Dow for the open - will be nice if that gets filled today


----------



## wayneL

Edwood said:


> how about we start with a clean slate - no egos, no willy waving - just tradering, general chit chat



Done

https://www.aussiestockforums.com/forums/showthread.php?p=148537#post148537


----------



## CanOz

The SPI's looking pretty sick to me, been playing around with the CCI afrer acouch brought it up. The CCI's hasn't been this low since.....you know when.

Cheers,


----------



## Edwood

hi Can - yeah its looking a bit tired hey


----------



## professor_frink

evening folks,

Anyone out there catch the move up after the inflation figures? There was some fast and furious money to be had- 50+ point move in under 10 minutes, almost good enough to compete with the Hang Seng!


----------



## wayneL

professor_frink said:


> evening folks,
> 
> Anyone out there catch the move up after the inflation figures? There was some fast and furious money to be had- 50+ point move in under 10 minutes, almost good enough to compete with the Hang Seng!




A bit of action in the opposite direction on SYCOM too... maybe steady rates isn't so bullish after all.


----------



## professor_frink

wayneL said:


> A bit of action in the opposite direction on SYCOM too... maybe steady rates isn't so bullish after all.




It doesn't look like it now. If this were a small cap share, there would be people on this very forum referring to today as a pump and dump. Can we still call it that for an index


----------



## CanOz

Edwood said:


> hi Can - yeah its looking a bit tired hey




Yeah, and the mini Wall St.'s on the trendline. I picked a good nite to stay in  I'll post the chart in the Int'l thread.

Cheers,


----------



## wayneL

professor_frink said:


> It doesn't look like it now. If this were a small cap share, there would be people on this very forum referring to today as a pump and dump. Can we still call it that for an index



I believe the yankee index traders call it a "pop 'n drop"


----------



## CanOz

professor_frink said:


> evening folks,
> 
> Anyone out there catch the move up after the inflation figures? There was some fast and furious money to be had- 50+ point move in under 10 minutes, almost good enough to compete with the Hang Seng!




Saw it happen, but it was well underway when i caught it. I thought..."someone will be making money" on that move, or the fade after.

What's the SYCOM?

Cheers,


----------



## professor_frink

wayneL said:


> I believe the yankee index traders call it a "pop 'n drop"




hmmm, one sounds slightly sexual, the other slightly childish. Wonder if this a reflection on traders in the 2 countries

Ok, back on topic

Hourly chart of the SPI for the last month- we seem to finding a bit of support in 6146-53 area.

Who's game to buy it?


----------



## professor_frink

CanOz said:


> Saw it happen, but it was well underway when i caught it. I thought..."someone will be making money" on that move, or the fade after.
> 
> What's the SYCOM?
> 
> Cheers,




It's the overnight market. Yeah, you'd need to be looking at a tick, or maybe 1 minute chart to be able to pick it up quick enough- the move was over in 8 minutes or so


----------



## wayneL

professor_frink said:


> hmmm, one sounds slightly sexual, the other slightly childish. Wonder if this a reflection on traders in the 2 countries



Hmmm I think you have a point there. hehehe

*CanOz*, I think it's *SY*dney *C*omputerized *O*vernight *M*arket, or something like that.


----------



## Edwood

hi Prof - daily still looks like holding for the moment tho


----------



## professor_frink

Edwood said:


> hi Prof - daily still looks like holding for the moment tho




yeah it looks to be holding well, but I think I'll be on the sidelines for the moment, and stick with the daytrades on the nik + HSI. We've run up over 10% since the march lows, so I'm favouring a bit of churning as opposed to another rally at this stage. Could always be wrong too


----------



## CanOz

professor_frink said:


> yeah it looks to be holding well, but I think I'll be on the sidelines for the moment, and stick with the daytrades on the nik + HSI. We've run up over 10% since the march lows, so I'm favouring a bit of churning as opposed to another rally at this stage. Could always be wrong too




The 4 charts i'm watching tonite, the Wall St. Mini, the mini Tech 100, the Mini EU, and the SPI are all at or very close to the trend line, except for the Tech 100 and its in the middle of the channel. Housing data and consumder conf. out tonite too. I might pull up the Russel too!

Should be interesting.

Cheers,


----------



## CanOz

I think these things are turning bullish atm.


----------



## reece55

CanOz said:


> I think these things are turning bullish atm.




Certainly looks that way.....

I guess the biggest thing here why would all the US indicies just reach the 2000 highs and then retreat rapidly? I say we will have a stellar run for a little while, bar any catastrophe. The reality is the market is awash with cash that needs a home - I think this market is going to be in bull mode for some time.

Cheers


----------



## Edwood

not that strong a start today really for ASX considering the US was breaking records overnight...

rates up in NZ today fwiw, now 7.75%, the second rise in 2 months


----------



## Edwood

hanging on by its toenails now (altho suspect my chart is a duff though due to the flat patch around Easter... )


----------



## Sean K

FWIW all the indicators on a 1 year daily look pretty ordinary. 6200 ish has turned into quite a speed hump.


----------



## Edwood

well US wants to keep going up Kennas despite poor GDP and higher inflation so I guess its safest to assume the trend will continue for us for the time being as well.

on the all sessions ASX200 data I have a symmetrical triangle since April 19 which targets mid-May at around 6,340 fwiw.  otherwise I'll be watching your trend line for shorts on the breakdown.

imo until then there's no point trying to short other than intra-day on spikes, will just keep buying them dips!


----------



## Edwood

looking a bit like a wave 4 here, so potential for more upside, all dependent on the US tho...  am flat for now, will wait for a move either way


----------



## skyQuake

Hi all, new to the forum but not to the index. I see theres a few fellow cfd traders around here too.
I've been thinking of trading the SPI for a while rather than the CFDs, and Im just wondering about brokerage/interest(?) costs. 
I know CFDs charge you interest if you hold overnight, but does that apply to the SPI as well? What happens if I hold a month (ignoring margin call costs)
Thanks in advance!


----------



## professor_frink

skyQuake said:


> Hi all, new to the forum but not to the index. I see theres a few fellow cfd traders around here too.
> I've been thinking of trading the SPI for a while rather than the CFDs, and Im just wondering about brokerage/interest(?) costs.
> I know CFDs charge you interest if you hold overnight, but does that apply to the SPI as well? What happens if I hold a month (ignoring margin call costs)
> Thanks in advance!




hi skyQuake, welcome to ASF

Brokerage varies alot, depending on who you use. I use interactive brokers, and pay $5 per side per contract. You don't pay interest directly on futures in the way you do with CFD's, but there is the cost of carry to take into consideration for futures.


----------



## Edwood

Edwood said:


> looking a bit like a wave 4 here, so potential for more upside, all dependent on the US tho...  am flat for now, will wait for a move either way




thank gawd its made up its mind - have decided I hate 4's.  always best to be flat imo when you get into those tight consolidations.  

I guess I could have used an OCO - anyone got any tricks that they use when it gets tight like that?


----------



## Edwood

... altho we need to hold the break for my last post to be valid


----------



## professor_frink

Edwood said:


> thank gawd its made up its mind - have decided I hate 4's.  always best to be flat imo when you get into those tight consolidations.
> 
> I guess I could have used an OCO - anyone got any tricks that they use when it gets tight like that?




an OCO 

I agree that flat has been the way to go for swings recently. Still looks to have been some nice intraday swings though.


----------



## Edwood

professor_frink said:


> an OCO
> 
> I agree that flat has been the way to go for swings recently. Still looks to have been some nice intraday swings though.




Hi Prof - one cancels the other (OCO) 

http://www.traderslog.com/One-Cancels-Other-Order.htm

yes got some swings out of it but should have been prepared for the break out.  still, if in doubt better to be out


----------



## professor_frink

Edwood said:


> Hi Prof - one cancels the other (OCO)
> 
> http://www.traderslog.com/One-Cancels-Other-Order.htm
> 
> yes got some swings out of it but should have been prepared for the break out.  still, if in doubt better to be out




Gotcha. Wasn't sure if you were talking about orders, or indicators, or what!

Probably would have been best when looking for a break of this situation, though it hadn't really run hard enough to get me looking for shorting opportunities.....yet 

Think the break today might good for semi decent run over the next few sessions- 6300 or so me thinks


----------



## Edwood

professor_frink said:


> Gotcha. Wasn't sure if you were talking about orders, or indicators, or what!
> 
> Probably would have been best when looking for a break of this situation, though it hadn't really run hard enough to get me looking for shorting opportunities.....yet
> 
> Think the break today might good for semi decent run over the next few sessions- 6300 or so me thinks




aye same here Prof no shorts for me from here for a bit - unless we see a big outside day....

for the OCO I guess buy stop above the congestion and short limit below which would have me long now.  not very helpful in hindsight mind!!


----------



## professor_frink

Edwood said:


> aye same here Prof no shorts for me from here for a bit - unless we see a big outside day....
> 
> for the OCO I guess buy stop above the congestion and short limit below which would have me long now.  not very helpful in hindsight mind!!




It's always good to know it would have worked in hindsight

Our market is looking a whole lot healthier than some of the other Asian markets presently- nik is getting sold off once again today, and is still a long way off the feb highs(about 1000 points or so).


----------



## Edwood

interesting divergence & worth keeping an eye on, thanks for highlighting that Prof!

is it right that China is closed this week?


----------



## professor_frink

Edwood said:


> interesting divergence & worth keeping an eye on, thanks for highlighting that Prof!
> 
> is it right that China is closed this week?




Dunno. Might be. Hong Kong was shut yesterday. But according to my calendar, should be open today. No trading in Japan tom or Friday too.


----------



## skyQuake

Thanks for the reply professor 
I assume the cost of carry for the SPI will be the base  interest rate + a few pts?
Sa with interactive brokers, if I hold a contract for a week, how much interest would be charged? 
Many thanks


----------



## skyQuake

Also fwiw, I think the SPI is running into some resistance now. Small short here possible.


----------



## professor_frink

skyQuake said:


> Thanks for the reply professor
> I assume the cost of carry for the SPI will be the base  interest rate + a few pts?
> Sa with interactive brokers, if I hold a contract for a week, how much interest would be charged?
> Many thanks




Cost of carry is relected in the price, so you don't have to pay interest as such.
Because I'm not holding for months at a time, it's something I don't really pay much attention to, I'm more concerned with where the market is going, so the following comments may need to be verified by someone else-

SPI = current XJO price + cost of carry.

cost of carry = XJO x(interest rate - dividend yield x days till expiry).

I don't think it's 100% necessary to know exactly where fair value for the spi is all the time, if you are simply taking a directional position on the market. It shouldn't make too much of a difference to your bottom line, unless you are holding for months at a time.

If you are long, and the XJO goes up 100 points, then you'll make pretty well that on a futures trade.



			
				skyQuake said:
			
		

> Also fwiw, I think the SPI is running into some resistance now. Small short here possible.




Yep, I have a cluster of pivots sitting between 36 and 42 FWIW. Wouldn't be opening an intraday long here


----------



## CanOz

professor_frink said:


> Dunno. Might be. Hong Kong was shut yesterday. But according to my calendar, should be open today. No trading in Japan tom or Friday too.




Shanghai is closed all week, its May holiday here. I'm typing this while touring around a bit. We're in Dandong tonite, a city with the river between it and Nth.Korea. Quite a site too, this side is booming, and the other side is black with only a few lights visable, spooky...and sad.

Had a nice Nth. Korean meal tonite too.

Keeping a little eye on the markets only through occasional glimpses of BBC, been a real nice break from it all.

Hope i haven't missed anything.

Cheers folks,


----------



## Edwood

CanOz said:


> Shanghai is closed all week, its May holiday here. I'm typing this while touring around a bit. We're in Dandong tonite, a city with the river between it and Nth.Korea. Quite a site too, this side is booming, and the other side is black with only a few lights visable, spooky...and sad.
> 
> Had a nice Nth. Korean meal tonite too.
> 
> Keeping a little eye on the markets only through occasional glimpses of BBC, been a real nice break from it all.
> 
> Hope i haven't missed anything.
> 
> Cheers folks,




aw would love to go back to China sometime, such a buzz about it.  Have you been to Guilin area in the south?  we found the food in China nothing like Chinese food in western civilisation, much much better

don't worry you haven't missed anything here - still only goes one way 

I remember the old days when a correction was for more than 200pts...


----------



## Edwood

onwards & upwards - hope no-one is trying to short this yet...


----------



## skyQuake

Agree, I wish I had a dollar for evey time I shorted this beast.


----------



## Edwood

yeah it likes to trend, no point going against it.  ASX200 is now up around 26% or 1,300-odd pts since last August...

looking pretty strong too.  24hr data has us out of the bolly tho, so maybe a brief pause early next week before going for 6,500 - could do it in 2 days based on recent action


----------



## skyQuake

Hey, is that an IG chart?


----------



## Edwood

Hi SkyQ - I'm using CMC's UK spreadbet service - I think there are a few companies who use the IT-Finance.com charts within their product

...altho I think there must be a problem with my software today, its showing the ASX200 as going down   anyone else having this problem?


----------



## CanOz

Edwood said:


> Hi SkyQ - I'm using CMC's UK spreadbet service - I think there are a few companies who use the IT-Finance.com charts within their product
> 
> ...altho I think there must be a problem with my software today, its showing the ASX200 as going down   anyone else having this problem?




Yep. going down alright, not yet to the daily pivot though (S1)...getting close.

Cheers,


----------



## CanOz

I had 6291 as the daily pivot S1, which the market is testing now for the second time today....Edwood or anyone agree with this?

Cheers,


----------



## chops_a_must

CanOz said:


> I had 6291 as the daily pivot S1, which the market is testing now for the second time today....Edwood or anyone agree with this?
> 
> Cheers,




Don't know the pivot levels for the SPI can, but the XAO looks to have gone through S1. Not looking good for a close today.

Cheers,
Chops.


----------



## CanOz

chops_a_must said:


> Don't know the pivot levels for the SPI can, but the XAO looks to have gone through S1. Not looking good for a close today.
> 
> Cheers,
> Chops.




Well they are similar, so they must be hanging around the same levels...the mini 200 is just above my S1...heres the chart.....


----------



## chops_a_must

Well, the XAO ended up finishing right on its S1 by my reckoning. So it wasn't as bad as what it could have been. It'll be interesting to see where they all head from here.


----------



## Edwood

tying in with your S1 level, we're parked on the bottom of the broadening pattern which is showing a partial rise - ie potential reversal.  was short earlier, took profit & now short again


----------



## CanOz

Did you fade off the open this morning? Really uncanny how often that a spike fades off....i don't think i've seen one fail since i've been watching for them.

Cheers,


----------



## Edwood

CanOz said:


> Did you fade off the open this morning? Really uncanny how often that a spike fades off....i don't think i've seen one fail since i've been watching for them.
> 
> Cheers,




no I carried my short overnight so was underwater a little during the spike but worked out fine.  yeah ASX spikes are good - I haven't been following them as long as some here but with the o/night session on SPI you seem to get good follow through from the US action.

it does like to fill its gaps, and just an observation but if it doesn't fill it it'll often breakaway in the direction of the gap and trend for the day.


----------



## Edwood

this ones just for interest really - that 'triangle' I stuck up the other day pointed towards 6,340 around mid-May - we got to 6,339 today fwiw.


----------



## Edwood

played out OK - stops in bed calls...


----------



## Edwood

would like to see the opening gap filled so we have nothing to come back for...


----------



## Edwood

nope not to be this time....  

onwards and upwards!


----------



## Edwood

wicked rise!    that'll teach me to get bearish too early.

maybe worth noting that the move stalled at upper resistance on the megaphone....


----------



## Edwood




----------



## hacheln_mice

This broadening right angled wedge reminds me of price action that occurred late February and sometime last May...never mind. History rhymes but never repeats.


----------



## Edwood

yep history may not repeat exactly H-M but if the pattern works 60% of the time thats good enough for short term trading - you've gotta go with it!

fwiw that broadening pattern has given me two trades - break of support for 23pts & a drop off upper resistance.  closed 2/3s of my short position at 6,314 and keeping the rest running.  we've got a good selling spike out of this action so I reckon theres a fair chance this is the top for this move.  only a "chance" mind - am not betting the farm on it!  will be watching to see if it goes through support again


----------



## Edwood

anyone trading this today? was short ASX o/night which was nice but closed ASX positions & flat now.  might get back in out of hours depending on the action in Europe & the US


----------



## reece55

Edwood said:


> anyone trading this today? was short ASX o/night which was nice but closed ASX positions & flat now.  might get back in out of hours depending on the action in Europe & the US




Yep, shorted twice today, cashed in small gains, nothing spectacular.....

The index has regained late in the session strongly - so much for the weak lead from the US!!!

Cheers


----------



## professor_frink

Edwood said:


> anyone trading this today? was short ASX o/night which was nice but closed ASX positions & flat now.  might get back in out of hours depending on the action in Europe & the US




Afternoon Ed,

Been working on a couple of new ideas recently(papertrading only at this stage), and today's action is giving out some pretty conflicting signals- EOD chart dished out a potential short signal yesterday morning, but Hourly side of things was suggesting this morning's open was oversold and to go long.

As you can probably tell, it's countertrend nonsense(as per usual for me) and needs a lot of work! Long or short? Depends on the timeframe:dunno:


----------



## Edwood

well done Reece! looked a bit choppy & had a long on too but got stopped out at evens.  thought you might've been into the HSI Prof 

seems we're still playing within the broadening-type formation & have a trend line to watch now for shorts.  reckon we'll either drop out the bottom of the megaphone - "hold on to your hat" or we'll fail to rise to the top of the pattern & drop out

not really keen to take longs off support in case we gap down over stops so will be aiming to short the failures


----------



## professor_frink

Edwood said:


> well done Reece! looked a bit choppy & had a long on too but got stopped out at evens.  thought you might've been into the HSI Prof




Yeah have been. Today actually hasn't been as good for me as yesterday 

Trading was a little difficult in the opening half hour after that massive gap down(bout 300 points). Of course being in the kitchen making a coffee whilst the best move of the morning session was getting underway didn't help either


----------



## reece55

Edwood said:


> well done Reece! looked a bit choppy & had a long on too but got stopped out at evens.  thought you might've been into the HSI Prof




Thanks Edwood, I thought there would be a little more volatility on the down side today, but considering the 1% gap down, stocks across the board held on very tight. Agree with your broadening top analysis and I favour the later of your two scenarios - just can't see this market rolling over and topping itself. Mind you, if it does I will be ready to short.

My hat goes off to you for getting the 1% fall. I had a short in yesterday and closed with nice gains at early in the session, but I was just too busy at work in the day to open another and I never trade in the after hours market.... So I missed what could have been a gem of a take..... There is always next time!!


----------



## Edwood

cheers Reece - I've been waiting for this move tho so gotta make the most of it

I reckon Aus on its own would probably be OK, with commodities & your super funds & stuff, but China is about to pop & it will make a bit of a mess.  look at the Asian crisis in 1997 - it'll just pull the rug out.  loads of complex debt derivatives around these days too.  if China drops 40+% there will be a pretty serious panic

may not happen of course, just think the chances are getting higher the more vertical that market goes


----------



## >Apocalypto<

Frink,

As I last pmed you here is the two min chart of most of todays action on the IGxjo I know its off topic please excuse me.

I have marked the entry's, please note guys it was really range trading from open and it was nothing special today until the first long then..... well you can see the short!

Frink as you can see very nice and clear.
Must correct a mistake L1 cont is technically a L2 cont sorry for that.


Peace out.


----------



## Edwood

nice chart Trade It

here's a line to watch


----------



## professor_frink

Trade_It said:


> Frink,
> 
> As I last pmed you here is the two min chart of most of todays action on the IGxjo I know its off topic please excuse me.
> 
> I have marked the entry's, please note guys it was really range trading from open and it was nothing special today until the first long then..... well you can see the short!
> 
> Frink as you can see very nice and clear.
> Must correct a mistake L1 cont is technically a L2 cont sorry for that.
> 
> 
> Peace out.




Nice work TI


----------



## CanOz

One of those megaphone tops here, but i don't think it will take out the trend line today...anybody?

If it takes out the trend line, or the daily S2 then i'll short, but until then i'm not convinced.

Cheers,


----------



## Edwood

looks like its testing support now Canaus...


----------



## CanOz

Took out the trendline without hesitation, but will 6255 hold it? After that the daily S2 wouldn't mean much i don't think.

Cheers,


----------



## >Apocalypto<

Minor support busted!

Now I wonder if any buyers will come in to help this hold. Afternoon could be very interesting. More flat I think.

Next target is the trend line. Wonder if it can break away on point 9 that would stitch up all the may dooms dayers!

But I am unsure of that happening.


second chart shows some more day trade action from last night to now.


----------



## Edwood

Trade_It said:


> second chart shows some more day trade action from last night to now.




nice one TI - just out of interest do you add to your position on each new signal? or are they just confirming that you should stay with the original decision?


----------



## >Apocalypto<

Edwood said:


> nice one TI - just out of interest do you add to your position on each new signal? or are they just confirming that you should stay with the original decision?




I am not trading it at the moment just watching it getting my eye in.

but I would be adding to my winners on every new confirmed entry.

i am yet to work out a profit protection rule yet still just getting my head around  qualifying entries.

If you want the link PM me.

I still look to trade off my daily charts. less maintaince, more time to think bigger returns. but I am sure convinced day trading can work if done in the right way.


----------



## Edwood

ok - looks like a good strategy tho.  have seen one similar where the rule is to quit after 2 winners - i.e, the profit protection is to quit before you get greedy on each run


----------



## Edwood

Wayne posted something the other day re: profits from day trading - might have been on the international indices thread? not sure - to the effect that day trading has the highest sharpe ratio of all forms of investing.  your chart shows around 30pts potential profit & you'd have a stop at evens pretty quickly


----------



## Edwood

ASX getting into a tight range again - guess it must be time to go long


----------



## Rogue Trading

What does the SPI channel trading at record highs mean?
Most times markets channel in the middle and break out one way or the other. When the SPI is at record highs does this mean it will break out to the down side?
Look forward to your answers.

Regards
Rogue Trading


----------



## Edwood

no idea if its a 'top' or not RT, but definitely churning away up here.  the action out of consolidations lately has been higher so it could just be another continuation pattern.  based on the new highs in the US on Friday it looks as tho thats the way it might go again this time.  but until we get a break either way I guess its best to sell resistance & buy support within the channel


----------



## Edwood

*Congestions*
                Generally refers to any type of chart pattern in which prices                 are temporarily trapped in a trading range. The range can be                 converging, expanding or defined by parallel lines on the                 horizontal. Congestions of shorter duration are usually found to                 be a variation of a Flag, or some variation of a converging or                 expanding triangle. Periods of longer congestion are usually                 defined by a variation of a converging or expanding triangle, or                 may be an elongated parallel channel on the horizontal. Such                 patterns are frequently referred to being Continuation patterns                 if price break out in the direction of the trend leading to the                 formation of the congestion pattern. *

Continuation                 Patterns*
                Periods of longer congestion are usually defined by a variation                 of a converging or expanding triangle, or may be an elongated                 parallel channel on the horizontal. Such patterns are frequently                 referred to being continuation patterns if price break out in                 the direction of the trend leading to the formation of the                 congestion pattern.


----------



## Edwood

sheesh ASX now up over 1,000pts in the last 6 months!!


----------



## >Apocalypto<

Edwood said:


> sheesh ASX now up over 1,000pts in the last 6 months!!





truly amazing!

what you make of the Floor trader system Elwood? there were two ripper entry's with two continuation entries today!


----------



## Edwood

no didn't follow the action intra-day today Trade It - went short Friday night on the back of the Dow rise & closed ASX at the open so was done for the day


----------



## Edwood

looks like potentially more good entries for your system today Trade-It 

back to the trend line, guess we'll just have to wait & see what happens in Europe...


----------



## >Apocalypto<

Edwood said:


> looks like potentially more good entries for your system today Trade-It
> 
> back to the trend line, guess we'll just have to wait & see what happens in Europe...




Yesterday was not bad one good short and couple of quick shorts.

Missed a ripper last night 15 or more points! but can't be there everytime.

Using a 2 min chart gives you more trades but set up and fast entry in crucial!


----------



## professor_frink

morning Trade It,

Slightly different slant on the floor trader setup for this morning- 

SPI with a 3 tick range chart + FT setup for a short


----------



## >Apocalypto<

professor_frink said:


> morning Trade It,
> 
> Slightly different slant on the floor trader setup for this morning-
> 
> SPI with a 3 tick range chart + FT setup for a short




Frink,

Is that Amibroker your using for your chart? yeh that is a classic entry good range.

on two or five min today had a sell entry on open and long into lunch on IGXJO

I am using 2min but seen couple nice trades on the 5min as well this week.

Got to be fast though!


----------



## professor_frink

Trade_It said:


> Frink,
> 
> Is that Amibroker your using for your chart? yeh that is a classic entry good range.
> 
> on two or five min today had a sell entry on open and long into lunch on IGXJO
> 
> I am using 2min but seen couple nice trades on the 5min as well this week.
> 
> Got to be fast though!




That chart is done on Quotetracker. Amibroker doesn't like IB's pseudo tick data, so I use Quotetracker if I don't want to look at time based charts(which I find myself doing more and more in recent times). 

I quite like the FT setup on the range chart


----------



## Edwood

oo-er!  stating the obvious but a bit of a trend line break this am...


----------



## skyQuake

Have to agree with that! Though I think we'll find a little bit of support around here or lower ar 6300.
But the asian markets are spooked, wouldnt bode well for us.


----------



## Edwood

skyQuake said:


> Have to agree with that! Though I think we'll find a little bit of support around here or lower ar 6300.
> But the asian markets are spooked, wouldnt bode well for us.




a bit of down is probably not a bad thing right now SQ, take some of the pressure out.  Good old Greenspan!


----------



## skyQuake

Edwood said:


> a bit of down is probably not a bad thing right now SQ, take some of the pressure out.  Good old Greenspan!




Oh no doubt about that, i was actually referring to today's possible market action   - longs would feel quite some pain


----------



## Edwood

found support for the moment it seems

nice to get some down for a change!  this churning away up here has been doing my head in


----------



## Edwood

so we're out of the trend line but at support again for the horizontal channel - ASX seems to be off more than Asia so have closed my short for the moment, will wait & see where we go from here.  has anyone else been shorting this?


----------



## Edwood

this is wot I is looking at fwiw


----------



## Edwood

ASX looking dicey


----------



## >Apocalypto<

Edwood said:


> ASX looking dicey




I am not complaining, Actually i have been looking forward to this if it does materialize.

+ I am short on WES!

My fav game world can start find support jump back in. just wonder if it has a long sideways band before resuming like last year!

That's if resumes


----------



## Edwood

yep me too, was up half the night between naps, closed my short too early but wanted to take the profit half expecting those dip buyers to be back out again - they didn't come!

To put the move into context tho we've only retraced 23% of the move out of March lows, so really nothing at all, could just be a 'normal' dip or a 4 in this leg up.

also long weekends in the UK & US - both closed Monday


----------



## Broadway

Hey guys,

Some excellent stuff in this thread, I will get through it all this weekend.

I am interested in doing some online SPI trading, but I currently need some help in finding a good but not expensive online futures broker, and also a good and reasonably priced real time charting program.

The net (google etc) seems to be pulling me in many different directions (as it can). I am hoping some experienced voices could point me in the right direction.

Cheers.


----------



## Edwood

Hi Broadway - welcome to the thread!

I've just moved to Interactive Brokers for execution & QuoteTracker for charting.  IB's SPI data feed is free, as is QuoteTracker.  IB charge a small commission for SPI - $10 for a round trip per contract.  First impressions of the charts through QT are that its pretty good, and quick.

some of the guys here use Amibroker (sp?)

feel free to add any ideas to the thread, the more the merrier!!  

Ed


----------



## Edwood

nice gap fill off the open.  have played these the last couple of Friday's now on the back of Friday's US action (i.e., our Sat morning so all sessions SPI) - means holding over the w/end but makes a nice start to the week


----------



## >Apocalypto<

today was another bonanza on the FT system.

our market is struggling with its own weight. not thinking of any longs right now on a daily chart.


----------



## professor_frink

Afternoon folks

Pretty impressive selloff today.

Currently trialling Sierra chart- quite impressed with it 
Not 100% sure if Amibroker is going to be relegated to EOD only just yet- will have to wait and see if I can get Sierra to do exactly what I want it to.
3 tick range chart of today's action-


----------



## >Apocalypto<

professor_frink said:


> Afternoon folks
> 
> Pretty impressive selloff today.
> 
> Currently trialling Sierra chart- quite impressed with it
> Not 100% sure if Amibroker is going to be relegated to EOD only just yet- will have to wait and see if I can get Sierra to do exactly what I want it to.
> 3 tick range chart of today's action-




Frink chart looks good.

nearly indentical to the IG XJO chart so not much diff in the to SPI and IGXJO.

Amibroker going to EOD that sucks on all futures as well? I am still looking at buying amibroker. or do u suggest quote tracker or sierra?


----------



## professor_frink

Trade_It said:


> Frink chart looks good.
> 
> nearly indentical to the IG XJO chart so not much diff in the to SPI and IGXJO.
> 
> Amibroker going to EOD that sucks on all futures as well? I am still looking at buying amibroker. or do u suggest quote tracker or sierra?




I've got an intraday database for futures + an EOD one for stocks. If I make the switch to Sierra, I'll probably just use Ami for EOD stocks.

It's not so much that I'd suggest QT or Sierra over Amibroker- it all depends on what you want to do, and which datafeed you are using them with.


----------



## Edwood

afternoon chaps - charts look good  

took profits earlier but back in - it seems quite happy going down today


----------



## >Apocalypto<

professor_frink said:


> I've got an intraday database for futures + an EOD one for stocks. If I make the switch to Sierra, I'll probably just use Ami for EOD stocks.
> 
> It's not so much that I'd suggest QT or Sierra over Amibroker- it all depends on what you want to do, and which datafeed you are using them with.




Cheers Frink


----------



## Edwood

nice little impulsive move up - must be a 3 or C


----------



## Edwood

any shorts must be getting a good squeeze now!


----------



## Broadway

Yep, interesting last couple of days. Ive been paper trading on the sfe trading game site, but unfortunatley the site seemed buggy today. Still getting my IB application together. Ill have a look at quotetracker as well for charting, over the next week.

I got a couple of learner's questions - 

1. Im having trouble finding the exact date and time we are not meant to be holding contracts to avoid a cash settlement on the SPI. Is expiry a quarterly event (HMUZ, march, june etc) or is expiry a monthly thing?

2. Wanted to continue paper trading something similar to the SPI after 1630. The SPI tends to get thin after this time. Does anyone know the closest type futures for the UK and USA? Something that behaves smoothly like the SPI, and has a common underlying index that is also easily watched.

Cheers for the help, hope to catch some of you guys in chat soon.


----------



## professor_frink

Broadway said:


> Yep, interesting last couple of days. Ive been paper trading on the sfe trading game site, but unfortunatley the site seemed buggy today. Still getting my IB application together. Ill have a look at quotetracker as well for charting, over the next week.
> 
> I got a couple of learner's questions -
> 
> 1. Im having trouble finding the exact date and time we are not meant to be holding contracts to avoid a cash settlement on the SPI. Is expiry a quarterly event (HMUZ, march, june etc) or is expiry a monthly thing?
> 
> 2. Wanted to continue paper trading something similar to the SPI after 1630. The SPI tends to get thin after this time. Does anyone know the closest type futures for the UK and USA? Something that behaves smoothly like the SPI, and has a common underlying index that is also easily watched.
> 
> Cheers for the help, hope to catch some of you guys in chat soon.




1.- expiry is quaterly. Current contract expires in June(21st I think is expiry day)- your best bet is to watch the volume in the final few days- you'll be able to see when most people switch into the new contract.

2.- Europe opens early evening Eastern Aus time, so if you like your sleep, it could be better than the U.S. Estoxx50 is meant to be good to trade, as is the Dax. From what I've heard, the Dax can be pretty frisky intraday

What else is good fun in Europe Ed?


----------



## professor_frink

Broadway said:


> Yep, interesting last couple of days. Ive been paper trading on the sfe trading game site, but unfortunatley the site seemed buggy today. Still getting my IB application together. Ill have a look at quotetracker as well for charting, over the next week.
> 
> I got a couple of learner's questions -
> 
> 1. Im having trouble finding the exact date and time we are not meant to be holding contracts to avoid a cash settlement on the SPI. Is expiry a quarterly event (HMUZ, march, june etc) or is expiry a monthly thing?
> 
> 2. Wanted to continue paper trading something similar to the SPI after 1630. The SPI tends to get thin after this time. Does anyone know the closest type futures for the UK and USA? Something that behaves smoothly like the SPI, and has a common underlying index that is also easily watched.
> 
> Cheers for the help, hope to catch some of you guys in chat soon.




Couple of other options for charting with the IB feed-

Sierra chart-(I'm trialling it now- good, but still undecided if I'm going to use it)

Amibroker- I've used it quite alot. Lots of good things.

Ensign- Next on the trial list after I'm done Trialling Sierra. More expensive than Sierra/Quotetracker/Amibroker- but it looks like you can do some pretty cool things with it

Quotetracker is by far the cheapest of them all, but I actually find myself using it more than Amibroker presently, as it can do quite a few things with the IB feed that Amibroker can't(tick,range,renko charts, I can plot daily pivots based on RTH on a 24 hour chart, and a couple of other minor things that make trading that little bit more pleasant). It's major drawback is you can't store much data in it- If you want to say, swing trade off a 4hour chart, it would pretty well impossible to do it with QT.

Hope this helps


----------



## Broadway

thx frink, great info.


----------



## professor_frink

Broadway said:


> thx frink, great info.




no worries Broadway

Be sure to drop into the thread when you are up and running and let us know how you get on with it all


----------



## Edwood

hey Prof & Broadway  

Ibiza is fun but a bit of a hike from here 

yep Dax is good Prof, as is the SMI.  haven't looked at the eStox.  Was planning to cover FTSE when I moved out here but its a choppy bugger, the one redeeming feature is the opening gaps.

agree re: US hours - a killer - I occasionally cover the Dow but its hard work.  am considering following your lead Prof & looking at Hang Seng but haven't got the time at the moment.  you have to be careful cos there is always something open...!

re: paper trading - IB give you a paper-trading account once you've funded your account which is handy

fwiw for my out of hours I'm still using a couple of UK spreadbet accounts (like CFD's) - the margin is minimal compared to IB out of hours

any questions just shout!

Ed


----------



## Edwood

gap above around the 1.618 level but overall looking bearish


----------



## professor_frink

Edwood said:


> hey Prof & Broadway
> 
> Ibiza is fun but a bit of a hike from here








Edwood said:


> yep Dax is good Prof, as is the SMI.  haven't looked at the eStox.  Was planning to cover FTSE when I moved out here but its a choppy bugger, the one redeeming feature is the opening gaps.
> 
> agree re: US hours - a killer - I occasionally cover the Dow but its hard work.  am considering following your lead Prof & looking at Hang Seng but haven't got the time at the moment.  you have to be careful cos there is always something open...!
> 
> re: paper trading - IB give you a paper-trading account once you've funded your account which is handy
> 
> fwiw for my out of hours I'm still using a couple of UK spreadbet accounts (like CFD's) - the margin is minimal compared to IB out of hours
> 
> any questions just shout!
> 
> Ed




Ed, Broadway,

There is actually quite a few good tradeable contracts through IB in Asia that you both could look at if you're both interested in our region-

Hang Seng has a mini(MHI) to go with the big contract(HSI) 

Nikkei- N225M - small sized(osaka exchange), 
          SGXNK-medium size (singapore), 
          and N225 - super sized(osaka again).

Topix - JTI (Tokyo)

Kospi - (K200)

MSCI taiwan - (STW) 

And the China H-shares traded out of Hong Kong - (HHI.HK)

The nikkei(mini or singapore contract) and MSCI taiwan index are great to trade if you are after something that behaves in a similar manner to the SPI


----------



## Edwood

professor_frink said:


> Ed, Broadway,
> 
> There is actually quite a few good tradeable contracts through IB in Asia that you both could look at if you're both interested in our region-
> 
> Hang Seng has a mini(MHI) to go with the big contract(HSI)
> 
> Nikkei- N225M - small sized(osaka exchange),
> SGXNK-medium size (singapore),
> and N225 - super sized(osaka again).
> 
> Topix - JTI (Tokyo)
> 
> Kospi - (K200)
> 
> MSCI taiwan - (STW)
> 
> And the China H-shares traded out of Hong Kong - (HHI.HK)
> 
> The nikkei(mini or singapore contract) and MSCI taiwan index are great to trade if you are after something that behaves in a similar manner to the SPI





great Prof!  thanks very much for the pointers.  I see some of them also have free data subscription via IB - will check those ones out first (tite-wad that I am ).    must be better for marital relations to be working local hours too I think...


----------



## professor_frink

Edwood said:


> great Prof!  thanks very much for the pointers.  I see some of them also have free data subscription via IB - will check those ones out first (tite-wad that I am ).    must be better for marital relations to be working local hours too I think...




Yeah I was the same Ed 

Been getting Osaka data for a while now to keep an eye on the other nikkei contracts, and only recently started subscribing to Tokyo, as it has the Topix, + market internals for the Japanese market.

Outside of the Jap markets, I think pretty well everything else is free


----------



## >Apocalypto<

professor_frink said:


> Yeah I was the same Ed
> 
> Been getting Osaka data for a while now to keep an eye on the other nikkei contracts, and only recently started subscribing to Tokyo, as it has the Topix, + market internals for the Japanese market.
> 
> Outside of the Jap markets, I think pretty well everything else is free




Frink your a wealth of Futures knowledge!

Weaker start to the open on SPI and IGXJO,


----------



## professor_frink

Trade_It said:


> Frink your a wealth of Futures knowledge!
> 
> Weaker start to the open on SPI and IGXJO,




Dunno bout a "wealth of futures knowledge"

But thanks anyway

Yeah weaker start, but we have what could be a double bottom with the o/n session right at the daily pivot point.


----------



## professor_frink

here's what I was talking about- we had another test after I posted the last message. And are now testing the downtrend line from Tuesday night.


----------



## Broadway

Your MAs have crossed up for a long entry, but the trend lines are suggesting a short entry might be smarter, tricky situation for a learner.


----------



## professor_frink

Broadway said:


> Your MAs have crossed up for a long entry, but the trend lines are suggesting a short entry might be smarter, tricky situation for a learner.




Using MA's in the traditional sense(buy when x crosses y) can be a recipe for disaster, especially on intraday timeframes. A choppy day will have you buying every top and selling every bottom.

They are a good general guide however, and the right MA can show some pretty interesting support/resistance characteristics, and give subtle hints about o/bought+o/sold conditions


----------



## Edwood

Broadway said:


> Your MAs have crossed up for a long entry, but the trend lines are suggesting a short entry might be smarter, tricky situation for a learner.




you could add a 1day MA to help keep you onside, which in this case is sort of being achieved via the trend line anyway - a 360 min MA - only take longs above that & shorts below it - or fades back to the MA from extensions (o/bought / o/sold) as well as gap opens depending on your attitude to risk.

but best to start with the 1day MA imo & watch the action around that before you add other bits


----------



## Broadway

I guess thats why I see a few 20 MAs on charts with 15 minute periods, because that represents a 5 hour period, which is about a day's trading anyway ( hence a 1 day MA or the 360 min MA you are eluding to.)

By trading the opening gaps, do you mean if it gaps up, enter short at open or soon after, and watch it move back down to the previous days close?


----------



## Edwood

Edwood said:


> gap above around the 1.618 level but overall looking bearish




nice impulsive action now - we could be looking at the start of a bigger 3 down  don't want to get ahead of myself tho....  need to come through 6,260 really to indicate its possible & then print new lows obviously, past 6,217 on the above


----------



## >Apocalypto<

professor_frink said:


> Dunno bout a "wealth of futures knowledge"
> 
> But thanks anyway
> 
> Yeah weaker start, but we have what could be a double bottom with the o/n session right at the daily pivot point.




Jeez it rejected that bull run.


Straight back down

Any of you catch that short?

Chart with couple entry's Frink I am using bars now on FT system like it more then candles.

I look to take first retracement after cross only ad one cont trade. try to take at least 5 points out of each trade.

I did not trade those this morning.


----------



## professor_frink

Trade_It said:


> Jeez it rejected that bull run.
> 
> 
> Straight back down
> 
> Any of you catch that short?
> 
> Chart with couple entry's Frink I am using bars now on FT system like it more then candles.
> 
> I look to take first retracement after cross only ad one cont trade. try to take at least 5 points out of each trade.
> 
> I did not trade those this morning.




bars,candles, they all show the same info


----------



## Edwood

yep I'm short, leaving it in - 3's & C's are what you want to be in - also short Dax fwiw

we were below the 1day tho so longs from earlier for me would only have been on a gap down looking for some retrace of the gap.  was in a meeting during open tho


----------



## professor_frink

getting real nasty now. 75 didn't hold too long as a possible support area. 45-50 may offer some support(if it gets that far)


----------



## Edwood

yeah my numbers will be different to yours on this cos I'm on my spreadbet a/c in the office - price is more like the XJO / ASX200 values than SPI so apologies for any confusion

seems to be getting some momentum going now... which is nice


----------



## Edwood

[FONT=Arial,Helvetica,sans-serif]Chinese stocks plummet five percent at opening on Wednesday after an  announcement of a hike in stamp tax on stock trading.  
The benchmark Shanghai Composite Index opened lower at 4087.41 points, 247.51  points, or 5.78 percent down from Tuesday's close.  
The Ministry of Finance announced Tuesday night the stamp tax on stock  trading will rise to 0.3  percent from 0.1 percent starting from Wednesday,  in the authorities' latest move to cool down the country's runaway equity  market.  
[/FONT]


----------



## Edwood

oo-er missus!  nice move!

hope no-one is trying to long this....


----------



## professor_frink

Edwood said:


> oo-er missus!  nice move!
> 
> hope no-one is trying to long this....




It could find a bit of support here

But I wouldn't buy it!

If it carries on south from here, I have the next potential support level @ 30. If that breaks, I have no clue- I'll need to fire up a chart with the entire contract's data on it to find something


----------



## Edwood

a drop to 6,000 would be about a 4% move - maybe 6,150 would do it for now

too early to talk about targets yet tho, gotta take out the recent lows first


----------



## Broadway

Bottomed out? Maybe a long afternoon?


----------



## professor_frink

Broadway said:


> Bottomed out? Maybe a long afternoon?




It looks to have found a bottom for a little while at least. Personally, I'd be a bit wary of trying go long after such a big move down, but that's just me.


----------



## Edwood

professor_frink said:


> It looks to have found a bottom for a little while at least. Personally, I'd be a bit wary of trying go long after such a big move down, but that's just me.




wise words Prof am still short over here - it likes to trend does the ASX, best to leave bottom picking to the monkeys


----------



## Edwood

right closed for now - we've hit the 2,618 extension of wave 1 or A so looks like a fair place for a bounce.  could go lower but we're near the recent lows - will get back in if we continue, but waiting to see if we get some retrace first

nice afternoon!


----------



## Edwood

here's the bounce zone fwiw & the low we need to take out


----------



## Edwood

wicked rally!


----------



## Edwood

prob worth keeping that trend line in the back of the mind


----------



## Broadway

Always got good graphs ed, keep them coming.

I was in transit for the open..lol

Yep, very interesting morning.


----------



## Edwood

Broadway said:


> Always got good graphs ed, keep them coming.
> 
> I was in transit for the open..lol
> 
> Yep, very interesting morning.




cheers Broadway - just bear in mind that they have a bearish tone!   that one is a classic example, couldn't help but flag potential overhead resistance!!

maybe I need therapy...     anyone trying to short the ASX has to be a bit mad


----------



## Broadway

Triangle forming, I wonder if she'll break free tonight?


----------



## Edwood

was thinking the same thing Broadway - will probably follow the UK up but best to wait


----------



## Edwood

still consolidating out of hours, looking flag-ish and testing the upper boundary now


----------



## Uncle Festivus

Edwood said:


> prob worth keeping that trend line in the back of the mind




Howdy Edwood,

I dunno, it doesn't look too healthy to me. The dynamics to take it back to the old trend line will be substantial. The rate of change has backed of somewhat too, so maybe forming a new channel below the existing trendline. But very whippy now, daily ranges up & down 1-1.5%.


----------



## Edwood

hey Uncle, hope all is good!

yeah altho we're out of the trend line, given the strength in the markets overall I'm leaning towards giving the trend the benefit of the doubt and thinking this is just another correction - possibly a wave 4 - so potential for new highs to come.  support has held thus far anyway

however the move down looked like a 5 to me and this action looks corrective, so theres the possibility we are in a wave 2 up - if we print a lower high I'll get excited

missed the gap open today unfortunately.  tried a short afterward but stopped out for -9 so haven't touched it since.  sloppy sideways not much fun... 

yep the range has been good!


----------



## >Apocalypto<

Guys since there is a bigger veiwing group here i thought i would post up.

Frink excuse me i know it not exactly the SPI but it's close to it.

Chart is the IGXJO

now normal xjo is in a sidways movment as is the all ords.

Ig xjo is making new highs and is moving with its Gann line which i now call it's new trend.

I have added the new level of support (support4)

broke down resistence today and holding one more resistence target left just under 6400.

I took a position at middady but closed it out due to still wanting some extra confrimation, that this is the real thing. Its just post may and my 06 may hang over demons are still there, I keep expecting to see it fall over at any moment!

1.
I am now becoming more and more bullish. a break of the range on ALL ords and xjo will seal it for me and i am long.

2. price tests Gann line and confirms it as its support trend line long.

see what happens


----------



## Broadway

Trade_It said:


> Guys since there is a bigger veiwing group here i thought i would post up.
> 
> Frink excuse me i know it not exactly the SPI but it's close to it.
> 
> Chart is the IGXJO
> 
> now normal xjo is in a sidways movment as is the all ords.
> 
> Ig xjo is making new highs and is moving with its Gann line which i now call it's new trend.
> 
> I have added the new level of support (support4)
> 
> broke down resistence today and holding one more resistence target left just under 6400.
> 
> I took a position at middady but closed it out due to still wanting some extra confrimation, that this is the real thing. Its just post may and my 06 may hang over demons are still there, I keep expecting to see it fall over at any moment!
> 
> 1.
> I am now becoming more and more bullish. a break of the range on ALL ords and xjo will seal it for me and i am long.
> 
> 2. price tests Gann line and confirms it as its support trend line long.
> 
> see what happens




Good call if your bullish, dax etc. is going north fast.


----------



## >Apocalypto<

Well well...........

I just got ripped for 40 points did not even let it go to stop just left with my tail between my legs!

God it fell quick.

saw some bounce of the gann line took it for a sign of support entered. (confrimation is what i was missing!)

well i was caught on the gap then bang.....................

well this looks ominous now for this new trend now, unless it can pull back over.

possible double top forming neckline at 6210.


----------



## Edwood

tough luck Trade It but good discipline in killing it fast

touched the underside now sitting on spurious support - have a long on here, but only because I forgot to cancel a take profit from an earlier short! 

might get some retrace of the opening gap - currently looking at a gap of around 65


----------



## Edwood

nice little rise off the lows today, hope everyone else is getting some of it


----------



## Edwood

closed long for now, probably should've left it running as Europe is bound to run up later but reckon its better in my bank than someone else's!!


----------



## Edwood

sheesh SPI down 100 out of hours on Europe & US - big gap open coming up


----------



## Broadway

Edwood said:


> sheesh SPI down 100 out of hours on Europe & US - big gap open coming up




yep,good trends last evening. This sideways movement today is a little boring. Watching the NBA instead. Im going for the underdog Cavs.


----------



## Edwood

nice gap this morning


----------



## professor_frink

Morning folks,

Rollover day this morning- new front month is the september contract.

If given a chance before HK opens, I'll be looking to get short below 6368


----------



## Edwood

Hi Prof - just sent you an email re: Hang Seng


----------



## Trembling Hand

professor_frink said:


> Morning folks,
> 
> Rollover day this morning- new front month is the september contract.
> 
> If given a chance before HK opens, I'll be looking to get short below 6368




Hey Prof
Why, just out of interest, do you trade the HK markets?


----------



## professor_frink

trembling Hand said:


> Hey Prof
> Why, just out of interest, do you trade the HK markets?




Afternoon trembling Hand,

They trend so much better intraday compared with almost any other index, and the trends are huge

The Hang Seng is at lunch now, and in the morning session alone there has been a range of 245 points, or $1850+ AUD per contract.

The H-shares index has had an intraday range so far of 356 points, or nearly $2700 per contract.

Granted this morning was a really good morning, but the great thing about these contracts is that these kinds of great days happen quite regularly.


----------



## Edwood

just logged on to see the sell-off - disappointed to not be in it, very busy with other stuff at the moment - hope some of you are riding it!


----------



## Broadway

Edwood said:


> just logged on to see the sell-off - disappointed to not be in it, very busy with other stuff at the moment - hope some of you are riding it!




It's fun to watch things trend, every strategy and indicator works!!

Gotta feel sorry for the stockmarket and my super..


----------



## ISPIZ

Hey Guys,
Trust all is well for everybody.
My first post, I was wondering how many of you trade the SPI all day as in not far from computer for most of the day and even the night for that matter coz SPI does some great things at night as well.


----------



## professor_frink

ISPIZ said:


> Hey Guys,
> Trust all is well for everybody.
> My first post, I was wondering how many of you trade the SPI all day as in not far from computer for most of the day and even the night for that matter coz SPI does some great things at night as well.




G'day ISPIZ,
welcome to ASF

Generally I'm not too far from the computer most of the day. The few times I've held the SPI o/n, generally I've just got the computer running with stops in place, and let them do the work.


----------



## Edwood

Hi ISPIZ, welcome to SPI!  I tend to focus on the last hour of all sessions (early morning) and the first hour or so around the open.  Depends on the action & longer term pattern really as to whether or not I'll watch it all day.  If you have other things on tho its not a bad place to be, its not a maniac like some of the Asian indices


----------



## Edwood

well the consolidation continues - sold off quickly from the all time highs but also bought up pretty quickly off channel support...  just keep trading the range I guess


----------



## CanOz

You think this GAP will get filled or is that a big ask? Not too many get missed....i'm having some fun paper trading this lately....was looking for a reason that it bounced this morning, then put fib on it, it was out only .3 of a point.

Cheers,


----------



## Edwood

CanOz said:


> You think this GAP will get filled or is that a big ask? Not too many get missed....i'm having some fun paper trading this lately....was looking for a reason that it bounced this morning, then put fib on it, it was out only .3 of a point.
> 
> Cheers,




hi Can - have been following your trading system & 'diary' threads - good stuff!

0.3?! must be a failure then 

to be honest I've only ever looked at gaps between close of previous day session and sycom close.  would be interesting to look at intra-session ASX gaps.  personally I'd quite like to see Aus get up to new highs after all this fluffing around in the consolidation - if it can't I guess we'll have a decent bit of resistance up here to stop future advances


----------



## CanOz

Edwood said:


> hi Can - have been following your trading system & 'diary' threads - good stuff!
> 
> 0.3?! must be a failure then
> 
> to be honest I've only ever looked at gaps between close of previous day session and sycom close.  would be interesting to look at intra-session ASX gaps.  personally I'd quite like to see Aus get up to new highs after all this fluffing around in the consolidation - if it can't I guess we'll have a decent bit of resistance up here to stop future advances




Can't find a trade i like for my portfolio lately. Too much volitility at the moment too, better for indexers like you lot!

I've been mucking about lately with weekly, monthly and daily pivots on indexs and how trade setups presents themselves. I'm not really interested in trading index futures atthe moment, but i'm interested in learning how to spot the entries like you guys do, fascinating.

Fibb never ceases to amaze me...just as pivots do.

Cheers,


----------



## kerosam

hi fellows,

found this thread not too long ago. Considering SPI after going to one seminar.

Few questions:

1. what is 'spread'?
2. if the index is volatile, stop-losses will not be tight then? or is there a stop loss strategy in trading SPI?
3. is it suitable for non- day traders?
4. how to buy a SPI contract?

as you can see, i am quite green in this topic. any further info will be much appreciated. i'm just trying to pick up things and learn. for all its worth, it might not suit me.

thanks in advance.


----------



## professor_frink

kerosam said:


> hi fellows,
> 
> found this thread not too long ago. Considering SPI after going to one seminar.
> 
> Few questions:
> 
> 1. what is 'spread'?
> 2. if the index is volatile, stop-losses will not be tight then? or is there a stop loss strategy in trading SPI?
> 3. is it suitable for non- day traders?
> 4. how to buy a SPI contract?
> 
> as you can see, i am quite green in this topic. any further info will be much appreciated. i'm just trying to pick up things and learn. for all its worth, it might not suit me.
> 
> thanks in advance.




G'day kerosam

1. Difference between the bid/ask.
2. Can be volatile at times. Whatever stops you use will be dependent on what kind of time frame you are trading in.
3. It most certainly is suitable for EOD trading. All types of traders are welcome
4. You'll need to have an account with a futures broker.

If you after some reading material to help get you started, Brett Penfold's book "Trading the SPI" is meant to be pretty good. Available in the ASF bookshop


----------



## Trembling Hand

kerosam said:


> hi fellows,
> 
> found this thread not too long ago. Considering SPI after going to one seminar.
> 
> Few questions:
> 
> 1. what is 'spread'?
> 2. if the index is volatile, stop-losses will not be tight then? or is there a stop loss strategy in trading SPI?
> 3. is it suitable for non- day traders?
> 4. how to buy a SPI contract?
> 
> as you can see, i am quite green in this topic. any further info will be much appreciated. i'm just trying to pick up things and learn. for all its worth, it might not suit me.
> 
> thanks in advance.




Compared to other equity index futures the Spi is not that volatile. So you can have tightish stops intraday. If you are thinking of trading EOD/overnight style you need a reasonable account size because if you set your max stop loss at 2% of the account and you say its not that uncommon for the SPI to gap up/down 50 or more ticks thats $1250 ($25 per tick) so you would need $60,000 in your account without a draw down to trade 1 contract.

To buy a spi you need a futures account. Futures Codes are generally made up of six characters. The first two characters identify the underlying security or commodity and are known as the commodity code in the case of the spi its *AP*. The third character identifies the trading month, current contract being U and the fourth and fifth characters identify the trading year. If there is a sixth character, then D refers to Day contracts and N refers to Night contracts.

If you are new to the game and don't have $100,000 to throw away try a CFD account that gives you a contract like the spi but @ 1/25 the size. Good to learn. If you can break even on these step up to the real thing. I have an article on my blog why they are harder to make money with the CFDs but still they are a good learner.


----------



## wiseguy

kerosam said:


> hi fellows,
> 
> found this thread not too long ago. Considering SPI after going to one seminar.
> 
> Few questions:
> 
> 1. what is 'spread'?
> 2. if the index is volatile, stop-losses will not be tight then? or is there a stop loss strategy in trading SPI?
> 3. is it suitable for non- day traders?
> 4. how to buy a SPI contract?
> 
> as you can see, i am quite green in this topic. any further info will be much appreciated. i'm just trying to pick up things and learn. for all its worth, it might not suit me.
> 
> thanks in advance.




Hey Kero,

Here's a SPI trading sim you could try out. Not sure where you can get free live SPI charts. but you could always use futuresource if you wanna trade EOD stuff.

http://sfetradinggame.if5.com/home.aspx
http://futuresource.quote.com/chart...FE&o=&a=V:15&z=1200x750&d=MEDIUM&b=CANDLE&st=


----------



## CanOz

wiseguy said:


> Hey Kero,
> 
> Here's a SPI trading sim you could try out. Not sure where you can get free live SPI charts. but you could always use futuresource if you wanna trade EOD stuff.
> 
> http://sfetradinggame.if5.com/home.aspx
> http://futuresource.quote.com/chart...FE&o=&a=V:15&z=1200x750&d=MEDIUM&b=CANDLE&st=




The above three posters offered excellent advice. Even better is the particular idea to use a simulator or at least paper trade. You could easily wipe out a trading account here.

Read Read Read, plan plan plan, manage risk, and then trade paper for a while.

Cheers,


----------



## macca

You can set up a demo account at CMC.

That is live data, if you play it each day it will stay active for a month or so.


----------



## Trembling Hand

No intraday bull in the SPI. Here is a chart I posted yesterday on another thread. All the gains in the Spi have come from the overnight gaps. The data I used is on my blog if you want to down load it yourself. Also will have a couple of theoretical trades based on the data in the coming days/weeks.


----------



## Edwood

trembling Hand said:


> (From XAO) _Just posted a worked example on my blog but bottom line no. A gap down is still 50/50 each way for the rest of the day.
> 
> Here’s the meat of the post;
> If the market gaps down you would expect that it would work in your favor to trade short that day but the SPI has gaped down on the open more than 0.3% 133 times since January 05. It has closed that day higher than the open 67 times (50%), if you got bearish on an overnight gap down and were intraday position trading by the end of the day you would be at a loss 50% of the time. If you take a gap of 0.5% down on the open which has occurred 78 times it has again closed higher than the open 40 times being again about 50%._




Hi there - copied this over from XAO, probably more relevant here, hope thats cool.

If your data allows maybe take a look at how the SPI usually reacts in the first 90 mins after it gaps down, but don't worry about the rest of the day - i.e., if you're trading intra-day don't necessarily worry about the end


----------



## >Apocalypto<

Put a long over the Ig xjo (SPI) last night while it was -2 and the us futures were +15 i have been doing this on a couple of times at 10.30pm latley its a good way to make some extra coin over night as long as the dow holds its line but our xjo session can make havoc for your lead if we weaken during the day like happened a couple times to me last week.

Frink cheers for the comment u made that the spi is the xjo during our trading day call me silly but i had no idea that was the case.

So Ig xjo is pretty much the spi really just priced at the xjo.

Looking like a good day right now but over records maybe 



> If your data allows maybe take a look at how the SPI usually reacts in the first 90 mins after it gaps down, but don't worry about the rest of the day - i.e., if you're trading intra-day don't necessarily worry about the end




Yep it sure dose Edwood has to correct the lead to market level. I have not tried to trade it though, I notice at 9.50 it makes a run then corrects around 10.10-10.20.


----------



## Edwood

I have an outstanding gap around 8 pts lower than the LOD, would like to see that hit really, but reasonable chance of some retrace now


----------



## Trembling Hand

Edwood said:


> I have an outstanding gap around 8 pts lower than the LOD, would like to see that hit really, but reasonable chance of some retrace now




Edwood from what date  is that gap? That would also make for a bounce off the 50 day MA


----------



## Edwood

I make that gap Thurs last week Trembling Hand - I'm only looking for intra-day moves tho i.e., any bounce could be short lived


----------



## Edwood

Thursdays gap closed in o/night session, lets see if we can close it during normal hours today

(sent you a PM Trembling Hand)


----------



## Edwood

gap closed then, looking a bit oversold now and a big gap about 90 points above us - any takers?


----------



## professor_frink

Edwood said:


> gap closed then, looking a bit oversold now and a big gap about 90 points above us - any takers?




What on earth just happened? went out to get some breakfast, come back and it's lost 50 pts


----------



## professor_frink

Next support level for the SPI, now that it's finally broken down below 6320 is roughly 6180

Not that I'm really expecting it to get that far today!


----------



## Edwood

doh closed short too soon 

hey Prof - not sure what happened, pretty impulsive tho


----------



## Seaking

I've been working on an EOD system for a while now, back testing, forward testing and everything look's good. It is a day only system that buys the open, has both a max loss and profit stop and exits MOC if still alive. 
Today I felt ready to live trade it, went long the open and what a quick trade it turned out to be...


----------



## Edwood

Seaking said:


> I've been working on an EOD system for a while now, back testing, forward testing and everything look's good. It is a day only system that buys the open, has both a max loss and profit stop and exits MOC if still alive.
> Today I felt ready to live trade it, went long the open and what a quick trade it turned out to be...




oops!  sorry to hear that Seaking

we might just be catching up on US & European correction, Aus has managed to hold up pretty well so far


----------



## Seaking

> oops! sorry to hear that Seaking
> 
> we might just be catching up on US & European correction, Aus has managed to hold up pretty well so far




Thanks Edwood. I'm happy with what I have come up with so today is just trade 1 of a whole heap more I hope.
I think you are correct about the catch up..


----------



## professor_frink

Seaking said:


> I've been working on an EOD system for a while now, back testing, forward testing and everything look's good. It is a day only system that buys the open, has both a max loss and profit stop and exits MOC if still alive.
> Today I felt ready to live trade it, went long the open and what a quick trade it turned out to be...




morning Seaking,

sucks when stuff like that happens Hope the next trade works out a little better

If you don't mind me asking, what kind of stats have you found when designing this kind of system? win rate, Max DD, etc??

It's an area I'm a bit curious about, and wouldn't mind going down that path myself(if I can find the time to build a system)


----------



## Seaking

> morning Seaking,
> 
> sucks when stuff like that happens Hope the next trade works out a little better
> 
> If you don't mind me asking, what kind of stats have you found when designing this kind of system? win rate, Max DD, etc??
> 
> It's an area I'm a bit curious about, and wouldn't mind going down that path myself(if I can find the time to build a system



The stats for this system for the last 130 trades which is just over a year are
Max system DD - 13.68%
Win rate - 62%
Win/Loss - 1.51/1

These stats are using max slippage and would be what I expect to be worse case.


----------



## professor_frink

Seaking said:


> [morning Seaking,
> 
> sucks when stuff like that happens Hope the next trade works out a little better
> 
> If you don't mind me asking, what kind of stats have you found when designing this kind of system? win rate, Max DD, etc??
> 
> It's an area I'm a bit curious about, and wouldn't mind going down that path myself(if I can find the time to build a system)
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> The stats for this system for the last 130 trades which is just over a year are
> Max system DD - 13.68%
> Win rate - 62%
> Win/Loss - 1.51/1
> 
> These stats are using max slippage and would be what I expect to be worse case.
Click to expand...



Very nice Seaking. Thanks for that.

Good luck with it in the future


----------



## Seaking

It actually has better results with no stoploss at all, but I'm not going there...
The profit stop was put in to take better advantage of the candle tails and improved the results.


----------



## Seaking

> Very nice Seaking. Thanks for that.
> 
> Good luck with it in the future




Thanks mate


----------



## Trembling Hand

professor_frink said:


> What on earth just happened? went out to get some breakfast, come back and it's lost 50 pts




Boy wasn't that fun  
I never do well in drops like that even if I was short, which I wasn't, I cover to soon. And then by the time I get into a decent long on the bounce like is happening now its only to get back some of the lost ticks. I went long three times then!!!


----------



## Trembling Hand

Seaking said:


> It actually has better results with no stoploss at all, but I'm not going there...
> The profit stop was put in to take better advantage of the candle tails and improved the results.




I have been looking at similar systems trades and i have also found trades that give better results without stops. The big problem with this is that you never know if that pattern is about to change.


----------



## hacheln_mice

trembling Hand said:


> Boy wasn't that fun
> I never do well in drops like that even if I was short, which I wasn't, I cover to soon. And then by the time I get into a decent long on the bounce like is happening now its only to get back some of the lost ticks. I went long three times then!!!




This is what happened.  I think it'll blow over by the day's end.


----------



## Trembling Hand

hacheln_mice said:


> This is what happened.  I think it'll blow over by the day's end.




Nah!


----------



## Trembling Hand

What happened was a classic cascading waterfall. As the option Market Makers press lower to take out the expiring option today Idiots like myself buy lows looking for bounces the Bears press a little bit more take out lows we have to sell into a falling market making new lows that trigger more stops that take out new lows etc etc.


----------



## Edwood

dangerous trying to pick bottoms when its impulsing like that TH.  But if I'm not in it I find I'm always very nervous trying to join in in case it finds support & turns quickly.  Must be some sort of wave C or 3.

I see Hong Kong is up strongly today - new all time highs


----------



## >Apocalypto<

Red is my favorite color!     what a drop hey guys.


----------



## professor_frink

Looks like that 6180 support area I mentioned is in for a testing sooner than I thought. We are off another 25+ points from the day session close to 6215. 

over a 120 pt move since we opened this morning. Very impressive!


----------



## Edwood

yeah got some traction finally.  someone pointed this out on livecharts - similar pattern on quite a few indices at the moment.  not really relevant for intra-day-ers tho


----------



## CFD

trembling Hand said:


> the Bears press a little bit more take out lows we have to sell into a falling market making new lows that trigger more stops that take out new lows etc etc.




So have we finished or are we going to do some more tomorrow?


----------



## professor_frink

CFD said:


> So have we finished or are we going to do some more tomorrow?




Looks like there will be more to come tomorrow. SPI down below 6200 amd the Dow futures are off 100+ already. Still 2 hours before the U.S opens, so that can all change later on tonight


----------



## professor_frink

and this evening's commentary continues

With the DOW off 180, we have broken down through the 6150 level. My support that I said earlier today wouldn't be hit, has been blown through quite convincingly. Another great call by me


----------



## Trembling Hand

professor_frink said:


> My support that I said earlier today wouldn't be hit, has been blown through quite convincingly. Another great call by me




What a mess hey.


----------



## professor_frink

trembling Hand said:


> What a mess hey.




yeah it's a bit brutal. Surely the permabull dip buyers will be showing up shortly in the U.S


----------



## Trembling Hand

One for the must remember file. The UK was in a mess two days ago before the US opened and then Aussie market was the first to crack today, No doubt we will be reading how we followed the US into a hole. 

Gee the UK fell right into the close and is still going down another .4% in 3 minutes.


----------



## wayneL

professor_frink said:


> yeah it's a bit brutal. Surely the permabull dip buyers will be showing up shortly in the U.S



I reckon they used up their ammo last night. It was going to be a 30 pointer before they showed up.


----------



## professor_frink

wayneL said:


> I reckon they used up their ammo last night. It was going to be a 30 pointer before they showed up.




that doesn't bode well then. Tell you what, this volatility in the ES of late isn't good for my sleeping habits! I've been trading crude of late in the evenings, and am finding myself staying up later and later taking trades on the ES too.

Slowly creeping into the world of the vampire. Might have to get myself a coffin soon so I can get some sleep whilst the sun is up:batman:


----------



## Trembling Hand

You wouldn't think there are many more stops left on the SPI now, not ones that will trigger out of hours, we are well under the last 3 month range.


----------



## wayneL

professor_frink said:


> that doesn't bode well then. Tell you what, this volatility in the ES of late isn't good for my sleeping habits! I've been trading crude of late in the evenings, and am finding myself staying up later and later taking trades on the ES too.
> 
> Slowly creeping into the world of the vampire. Might have to get myself a coffin soon so I can get some sleep whilst the sun is up:batman:



Hehehe.

Come to the UK and trade till 9pm... then use the nocturnal tendencies to run amok.

Bring a boat.


----------



## professor_frink

trembling Hand said:


> You wouldn't think there are many more stops left on the SPI now, not ones that will trigger out of hours, we are well under the last 3 month range.




you wouldn't think so hey. ES looks like it has found some short term support, so  the selling may have stopped on the SPI for the time being.


----------



## professor_frink

trembling Hand said:


> You wouldn't think there are many more stops left on the SPI now, not ones that will trigger out of hours, we are well under the last 3 month range.




How wrong were we on that one TH!!! Still went another hundred south after that


----------



## Trembling Hand

professor_frink said:


> How wrong were we on that one TH!!! Still went another hundred south after that




Yep, very wrong. Though I don't mind being wrong when I haven't traded it. Best time to be wrong.


----------



## Edwood

600 pt gap down on HSI Prof  

nuts!


----------



## professor_frink

Edwood said:


> 600 pt gap down on HSI Prof
> 
> nuts!




yeah it was a big one. After last night's marathon, it has been hard waking up, so I wasn't really prepared for the open

I've seen a few of these now- the rally straight off the open is pretty well expected, but it's still hard to trade for me. Trying to find somewhere appropriate to place my stop that isn't going to have me trying to exit into panic selling if I'm wrong is beyond me right now, so I generally leave these alone and wait for the dust to settle.


----------



## Edwood

I saw you were up late, crude had a great range o/night, I was in Dax & FTSE mostly

yeah HSI gaps are not for the fainthearted   I got spanked badly by one of those when I got distracted & missed the close of morning session & got taken out after lunch.  good luck if you do find a strategy!  

sent you something I found on gap fades which looks quite handy


----------



## professor_frink

Edwood said:


> I saw you were up late, crude had a great range o/night, I was in Dax & FTSE mostly
> 
> yeah HSI gaps are not for the fainthearted   I got spanked badly by one of those when I got distracted & missed the close of morning session & got taken out after lunch.  good luck if you do find a strategy!
> 
> sent you something I found on gap fades which looks quite handy




crude wasn't too bad last night, though it did spend quite a while range bound- it wasn't until about 20 mins before I was going to go to bed that it finally broke down, so it turned into a bit of a late one.

I think the only way to play big gaps like that is to do it on 1 contract max to try and minimise the slippage if you are wrong. But the good thing is most of the time there is normally quite a few opportunities outside of the opening period to pick up a few points.


----------



## Edwood

just popping in, todays session looks to be a bit of an anti-climax after the o/night session.  Guess we can safely say that ASX is not currently leading other markets


----------



## Trembling Hand

Edwood said:


> just popping in, todays session looks to be a bit of an anti-climax after the o/night session.  Guess we can safely say that ASX is not currently leading other markets




We were the first to crack bigtime yesterday.


----------



## professor_frink

Edwood said:


> just popping in, todays session looks to be a bit of an anti-climax after the o/night session.  Guess we can safely say that ASX is not currently leading other markets




looks like it could go either way from here. I think the direction we will take from here will be determined by the way Europe opens. Cash market is currently sitting just below support @ 6125.  Spi sitting right on trendline from o/n lows. If we break down from here could be in for a test of the Feb highs.


----------



## >Apocalypto<

trembling Hand said:


> We were the first to crack bigtime yesterday.




I am sorry TH the US lead this one there is no doubt about it. This is more then 3 days old the writing was on the wall. Europe added to the spice last night.

What I love on the asf is after a couple of drops all the shorting threads pop up with the crash threads. lol. that userlay get me thinking long. he he he

I am going to make a call i think there will be a minor rally on the st tonight and we will buy up strong on monday if it happens.


----------



## Trembling Hand

Trade_It said:


> I am sorry TH the US lead this one there is no doubt about it. This is more then 3 days old the writing was on the wall. Europe added to the spice last night.
> 
> What I love on the asf is after a couple of drops all the shorting threads pop up with the crash threads. lol. that userlay get me thinking long. he he he
> 
> I am going to make a call i think there will be a minor rally on the st tonight and we will buy up strong on monday if it happens.




I'm sorry Trade_It but the UK lead it. They broke down big time on Tuesday before the US had even opened. The US did not break any uptrend line or support until last night. Their fall on Tuesday was not a lower low but ours yesterday had broken a lower low.


----------



## >Apocalypto<

trembling Hand said:


> I'm sorry Trade_It but the UK lead it. They broke down big time on Tuesday before the US had even opened. The US did not break any uptrend line or support until last night. Their fall on Tuesday was not a lower low but ours yesterday had broken a lower low.




Sorry TH the US lead it see chart 

** note, to be exact the first lower high was on the 19th **the firsts break was last Friday night 20th.

UK followed on the back of the sub prime news spilling to hurt them as well.

euope has lost 6% now since the 13th we never did anything the us broke out and broke down we failed on three times and fell over in a mess. CPI or what ever it was yesterday just got us moving.


----------



## Trembling Hand

Trade_It said:


> Sorry TH the US lead it see chart the firsts break was last Friday night 20th.
> 
> UK followed on the back of the sub prime news spilling to hurt them as well.
> 
> euope has lost 6% now since the 13th we never did anything the us broke out and broke down we failed on three times and fell over in a mess. CPI or what ever it was yesterday just got us moving.




So you are saying that the US broke on Friday, when I look at it I see a pull back that held at short term support then a bounce the next day up.

And you are saying that the UK followed what the bounce in the US Monday? When they were down?


----------



## >Apocalypto<

trembling Hand said:


> So you are saying that the US broke on Friday, when I look at it I see a pull back that held at short term support then a bounce the next day up.
> 
> And you are saying that the UK followed what the bounce in the US Monday? When they were down?




LOL,

TH you only see what you let your self see like i said the writing was on the wall.


----------



## Trembling Hand

Trade_It said:


> LOL,
> 
> TH you only see what you let your self see like i said the writing was on the wall.




So you were short?


----------



## >Apocalypto<

trembling Hand said:


> So you were short?




lol,

I dont have the skill yet, But lots were. I am just learning to see but I can tell you, I had no open longs by monday afternoon.


----------



## professor_frink

We got the break to the downside on the SPI recently. Will be interesting to see how it reacts when Europe opens


----------



## Trembling Hand

professor_frink said:


> We got the break to the downside on the SPI recently. Will be interesting to see how it reacts when Europe opens




No HK for you today Professor?


----------



## professor_frink

trembling Hand said:


> No HK for you today Professor?




lunch time in HK They re open at 4:30. Didn't trade the morning session today. Was barely out of bed and wasn't awake enough for the open!


----------



## Trembling Hand

professor_frink said:


> lunch time in HK They re open at 4:30. Didn't trade the morning session today. Was barely out of bed and wasn't awake enough for the open!




Was the same, the US night action is so addictive. Hard to walk away when its melting down like last night. I use to own some bakery's feels like I'm doing the same hours, all day & all night!!

Well that's it, it is well and truly BEER O'CLOCK in the TH house hold, what a week!. See ya guys next week.


----------



## professor_frink

trembling Hand said:


> Was the same, the US night action is so addictive. Hard to walk away when its melting down like last night. I use to own some bakery's feels like I'm doing the same hours, all day & all night!!
> 
> Well that's it, it is well and truly BEER O'CLOCK in the TH house hold, what a week!. See ya guys next week.




Enjoy your weekend Trembling Hand


----------



## >Apocalypto<

Trade_It said:


> I am going to make a call i think there will be a minor rally on the st tonight and we will buy up strong on monday if it happens.




Revising my call us futures are back in the mayor negative this is starting to look like a deep one.


----------



## wayneL

SYCOM just spiked below 6000 a few minutes ago.


----------



## >Apocalypto<

Trade_It said:


> Revising my call us futures are back in the mayor negative this is starting to look like a deep one.




*US STOCKS-Futures cut losses after GDP data
22:36, Friday, July 27, 2007

(Updates with release of GDP data)

NEW YORK, July 27 (Reuters) - U.S. stock index futures 
briefly cut losses but remained in the red on Friday after a 
government report showed a stronger-than-expected pace of 
economic growth in the second quarter.*

this may set up a choppy session and put a some brakes on another sell down.


----------



## >Apocalypto<

well another 200 gone on the dow this is looking like a deep one.



Hey *Trembling Hand* we anit going to follow the dow on Monday huh lol

At this point, we are following the lead but i agree with you at other times we don't, be objective and not one minded about any market behavior.

Good trading


----------



## professor_frink

Updated chart from post #972. 6000 has now been breached. Under normal circumstances, you would expect this to be a fairly important psychological level. Expecting another gap down from the SYCOM close on Monday morning followed by a run back at the 6000 level pretty soon after the open. 

I'd be very careful if anyone wanted to get short the market for a swing trade at these levels. We look very oversold right now, and if we see a short squeeze soon, it will probably be pretty vicious. A 100 point intraday rally wouldn't surprise me in the slightest on Monday, especially if we see other Asian markets being bought up after the opening gap.


----------



## >Apocalypto<

professor_frink said:


> Updated chart from post #972. 6000 has now been breached. Under normal circumstances, you would expect this to be a fairly important psychological level. Expecting another gap down from the SYCOM close on Monday morning followed by a run back at the 6000 level pretty soon after the open.
> 
> I'd be very careful if anyone wanted to get short the market for a swing trade at these levels. We look very oversold right now, and if we see a short squeeze soon, it will probably be pretty vicious. A 100 point intraday rally wouldn't surprise me in the slightest on Monday, especially if we see other Asian markets being bought up after the opening gap.





Morning Frink,

I tend to agree with u, A short squeeze is a logical move. General Indicators are very heavily oversold now due to the speed of this sell off.

This is not a dig, what makes you think we are oversold and cant not lose another 60-90 on Monday?

I am not short or long right now just waiting to see a clear move to take. unless its intraday I never trade against the trend, well not for now anyway.

cheers


----------



## kerosam

the Dow Jones is not doing too well either... I think Monday might be fall again on ours. China seems indifferent to the Dow Jones though. Anyone can confirm that? Or is it that ripple effect has yet to reach the chinese? 

http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601103&sid=aCylGnrk3oS8&refer=us


----------



## professor_frink

Trade_It said:


> Morning Frink,
> 
> I tend to agree with u, A short squeeze is a logical move. General Indicators are very heavily oversold now due to the speed of this sell off.
> 
> This is not a dig, what makes you think we are oversold and cant not lose another 60-90 on Monday?
> 
> I am not short or long right now just waiting to see a clear move to take. unless its intraday I never trade against the trend, well not for now anyway.
> 
> cheers




I'm not referring to any specific indicator saying we are oversold- more of a general comment based on us losing nearly 450 points in a week. 

If you go back and have a look at a chart of the XJO/XAO, you'll be struggling to find an instance of us falling like we did this week where it continues on for more than 3 or 4 days of closing on it's lows, before we at the very least pause before heading lower.

Having said that, there is absolutely no reason why it can't gap down and spend the entire day heading lower.


----------



## professor_frink

kerosam said:


> the Dow Jones is not doing too well either... I think Monday might be fall again on ours. China seems indifferent to the Dow Jones though. Anyone can confirm that? Or is it that ripple effect has yet to reach the chinese?
> 
> http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601103&sid=aCylGnrk3oS8&refer=us




afternoon kerosam,

I don't really follow China too closely. I think it's pretty irrelevant in the grand scheme of things. Outside of everybody caring about what happened in Feb, nobody seems to care about the day to day movement of the mainland index. It  may come back into the spotlight the next time the media need to explain a large selloff


----------



## Trembling Hand

professor_frink said:


> afternoon kerosam,
> 
> It  may come back into the spotlight the next time the media need to explain a large selloff




Exactly


----------



## porkpie324

It's interesting to note that during this bull run which started March 2003, during this period there has been 14 corrections I have completed some analysis as follows:-
 Each advance averaged 11.13%
 Each correction averaged 4.80%
 Each correction as a % of last advance averaged 56%
 We are  in the 15th correction now, as of Fridays close the ASX200 down 350 points 5.44%, just above this bull runs correction average.
   A 44.25% correction of the last advance, below the advance correction average. 
 The bull trend line is still in place, the ASX 200 index has to break below 5750 and fail to break the last advance high to enter a bear phase.porkpie


----------



## >Apocalypto<

porkpie324 said:


> It's interesting to note that during this bull run which started March 2003, during this period there has been 14 corrections I have completed some analysis as follows:-
> Each advance averaged 11.13%
> Each correction averaged 4.80%
> Each correction as a % of last advance averaged 56%
> We are  in the 15th correction now, as of Fridays close the ASX200 down 350 points 5.44%, just above this bull runs correction average.
> A 44.25% correction of the last advance, below the advance correction average.
> The bull trend line is still in place, the ASX 200 index has to break below 5750 and fail to break the last advance high to enter a bear phase.porkpie




Great Post.


----------



## Trembling Hand

porkpie324 said:


> The bull trend line is still in place, the ASX 200 index has to break below 5750 and fail to break the last advance high to enter a bear phase.porkpie




Yes I agree but I just wonder what damage the break of the last 3 month consolidation has had on the way people will play from now on. All of those corrections have been at the end of an advance. Taking out the Johnny's come last, this one has hurt everyone that has got in since the start of April. That is a change isn't it?


----------



## porkpie324

A change possible yes until the bear phase happens we won't know. But also interesting to note that when the market corrected during May / June last year the same things were said, ie the bull mkts ended, the commodities bull run is finished, all the bear comments were said and what happened the correction happened and went then everyone forgot it.porkpie


----------



## >Apocalypto<

porkpie324 said:


> A change possible yes until the bear phase happens we won't know. But also interesting to note that when the market corrected during May / June last year the same things were said, ie the bull mkts ended, the commodities bull run is finished, all the bear comments were said and what happened the correction happened and went then everyone forgot it.porkpie




Porkpie I agree with u in regards to the sentiment, also feb this year was a cracker for the bears coming out.

Last may was a very big correction with a band that followed. the main difference in the two bands June-aug 06 was a support touch band this last band was a resistance touch band.

TH raises a good point this did not have a rally into the selling it floated in with not much push. the DOW on the other hand really drove up hard but ran out of push very quickly.

But I am with until you until it proves bearish Its got as much chance to go up as down.


----------



## professor_frink

didn't get the gap down from the SYCOM close- flat open followed by a run straight at 6000. The nikkei opened down and recovered 80 points before the SPI opened, so it wasn't too surprising that we blew through 6000 without even pausing.

6034 now. Already up 44 from the SYCOM close. Wouldn't be surprised if this got up to 70-80 this morning.


----------



## Sean K

professor_frink said:


> didn't get the gap down from the SYCOM close- flat open followed by a run straight at 6000. The nikkei opened down and recovered 80 points before the SPI opened, so it wasn't too surprising that we blew through 6000 without even pausing.
> 
> 6034 now. Already up 44 from the SYCOM close. Wouldn't be surprised if this got up to 70-80 this morning.



Is this the dead cat?


----------



## professor_frink

kennas said:


> Is this the dead cat?




never know. It could have a few more lives left yet

ES is already moving up in response to Asian trade so far. Usually it's pretty well flat until the end of the Asian session/beginning of the European one. 

After last week's action, a wicked short covering rally worldwide wouldn't be unusual.


----------



## professor_frink

It looks like it's breaking down already, and hasn't even reached yesterday's lows


----------



## >Apocalypto<

professor_frink said:


> didn't get the gap down from the SYCOM close- flat open followed by a run straight at 6000. The nikkei opened down and recovered 80 points before the SPI opened, so it wasn't too surprising that we blew through 6000 without even pausing.
> 
> 6034 now. Already up 44 from the SYCOM close. Wouldn't be surprised if this got up to 70-80 this morning.




Excellent call Frink,

Now big Q. is can we hang onto the lead by close.


----------



## Trembling Hand

The little Aussie market showing some spine. Will be cautious of a 2:00, 2:30 margin call sell off on the cash. Will be interested to watch the open interest on the SPI has been a good tell, last Thursday as we started to meltdown it rocketed up 21,000 contracts before any other market reacted. Biggest jump in more than a month the market was in hindsight obviously getting very short before the rest of the world wide meltdowns.


----------



## professor_frink

Gap now covered Nik and ES are slowly heading south. Can't see us going too much higher without other Asian markets doing the same. Might be time for the longs to bank some profits.


----------



## porkpie324

The ASX bottomed this morning at 5980 thats a 452 point drop 7.03%, or 57% of the last increase which is the average for this bull run, porkpie


----------



## >Apocalypto<

Hats off to you Frink looks like you have called it to just about the price as well.

well done!


----------



## porkpie324

Mkt rallied well the last 2 hours,if and only if the correction has bottomed, was a 457 pnt fall of 7.10%, which is 57.7% of the last advance, the average for this present long bull mkt.
 Lets see what happens. porkpie


----------



## professor_frink

Trade_It said:


> Hats off to you Frink looks like you have called it to just about the price as well.
> 
> well done!




cheers TI. Make enough posts on the topic, and I'm bound to get one right eventually



porkpie324 said:


> Mkt rallied well the last 2 hours,if and only if the correction has bottomed, was a 457 pnt fall of 7.10%, which is 57.7% of the last advance, the average for this present long bull mkt.
> Lets see what happens. porkpie




nice work porkpie. Looks like you had it sussed well before the market opened today. Have you done any of those kinds of stats going back before the bullmarket started?


----------



## porkpie324

My data only goes back to 31/03/2000, if I had more historical data I could doe some analysis, porkpie


----------



## CanOz

Interesting how the daily S2 was also 6130 ish support....If this does not hold then 6000 will provide a little support surely. And after that 5900?

Cheers,


----------



## professor_frink

CanOz said:


> Interesting how the daily S2 was also 6130 ish support....If this does not hold then 6000 will provide a little support surely. And after that 5900?
> 
> Cheers,




is that a CFD index you're looking at canuck?

6000 has been tested this morning on the SPI and rejected pretty quickly. Currently @ 17. Have no faith in a long from here even though it looks to have found some support.

But I would say that, I have shorts on elsewhere


----------



## CanOz

professor_frink said:


> is that a CFD index you're looking at canuck?
> 
> 6000 has been tested this morning on the SPI and rejected pretty quickly.





Well thats it then, i can't learn anything with IG it seems. I had no idea they were that far out. So what is it, CASH mkt during trading hours and SPI after hours that it tracks...silly really.

Looks like i best finish my InterActive Brokers application.

Thanks Frink, good trading.

Cheers,


----------



## Trembling Hand

CanOz said:


> Well thats it then, i can't learn anything with IG it seems. I had no idea they were that far out. So what is it, CASH mkt during trading hours and SPI after hours that it tracks...silly really.
> 
> Looks like i best finish my InterActive Brokers application.
> 
> Thanks Frink, good trading.
> 
> Cheers,




Yep they are very messy in that way. You also miss out on seeing the volume and order flow with the CFDs. get onto IB its pretty good


----------



## Seaking

> Originally Posted by CanOz
> Well thats it then, i can't learn anything with IG it seems. I had no idea they were that far out. So what is it, CASH mkt during trading hours and SPI after hours that it tracks...silly really.
> 
> Looks like i best finish my InterActive Brokers application.
> 
> Thanks Frink, good trading.
> 
> Cheers,





IG have a cfd called the " Australia 200 forwards " which tracks the SPI and has a 3 point spread. The " Australia 200 cash " also tracks the SPI but with the premium or discount built in.


----------



## porkpie324

If this correction takes as long to get over as the previous corrections during this bull run it could take 3 to 4 months to pass, last years correction took 5 months and 7 months to pass the previous high. So hang on to your hats it could be of a bit roller coaster ride for while.porkpie


----------



## Edwood

ah-ha - so the old broadening top could still be in play


----------



## porkpie324

The long term trend line which started during March 2003 for this present bull run is still in place, infact with last nights ASX200 close at 5941 the trend line is at 5755 still 186 points clear.
 This present correction at the moment is 491 points 7.63% when compared to last years correction a 648 pont fall 11.98%. The average correction for this bull run is 56%. Until this trend is broken convincingly the bull run still holds. porkpie


----------



## Sean K

Edwood said:


> ah-ha - so the old broadening top could still be in play



Look at that MACD!


----------



## Trembling Hand

Edwood said:


> ah-ha - so the old broadening top could still be in play




What about a nice Diamond top that takes 3 more months to play out.


----------



## CanOz

I cannot see how this most recent violent decline could just evolve into another sideways phase....in my view the distribution is nearly complete and prices will fall from lack of demand....then perhaps a consolidation period...but i just can't see it at the top again.

Or where you just having us on?

Cheers,


----------



## Edwood

so the bull lives!   diamond top would be fine with me TH, so long as it doesn't drop 1,000 pts in a day that would be a real shame


----------



## Trembling Hand

CanOz said:


> but i just can't see it at the top again.
> 
> Or where you just having us on?
> 
> Cheers,



Yes a little play around. but Its is a possible pattern that could form. Lower highs higher lows. To make a Diamond pattern but not back to the Highs.



Edwood said:


> so the bull lives!   diamond top would be fine with me TH, so long as it doesn't drop 1,000 pts in a day that would be a real shame




Not an expert but I believe that they are more common at major tops rather than consolidation points!


----------



## Edwood

not sure really TH, I remember looking at diamonds at one stage but they didn't seem to be very reliable so didn't make a habit of hunting them out.  if we do consolidate I hope its a nice wide range.

like today - all you need is a 1min chart & 50sma - long may it continue!


----------



## Trembling Hand

Nasty reversal taking place!


----------



## CanOz

Lookout below!!!!!

I gotta go to lunch, but i don't this this index will be above 6000 when i get back!

Cheers,


----------



## Edwood

wasn't really expecting the opening gap to get filled today...


----------



## Trembling Hand

Edwood said:


> wasn't really expecting the opening gap to get filled today...




I think that the biggest reversal I have ever seen on the SPI!!


----------



## porkpie324

Last night the DJI moved over 200 points during the last hour!porkpie


----------



## wayneL

trembling Hand said:


> I think that the biggest reversal I have ever seen on the SPI!!



A huge reversal of the reversal as well... bizarre!


----------



## professor_frink

I Think I mentioned this during the Feb/Mar correction, but it might be time to bring it up again. During recent corrective periods, the SPI is very highly correlated with the nikkei, so I would highly recommend anyone trading the SPI to keep an eye on what the nikkei is doing.

The nikkei and the HSI normally feed off each other during the day(not just during corrections, it happens all the time with these 2), so it's a good idea to keep an eye on it as well.

Chart below to illustrate has the SPI on top, nikkei in the middle, and HSI at the bottom. 

look at what happens when the nikkei goes to lunch- HK started selling off almost immediately. Once the nikkei came back from lunch, it followed the HK market lower, and so did we. And look at when the selling stopped- pretty well the second HK went to lunch.


----------



## wayneL

Holy crap professor,

I don't know whether I like this lunch break business. You could be 000's up going into lunch, and the bailiffs moving in by the time you've finished your chicken chow mein.

Scary


----------



## professor_frink

wayneL said:


> Holy crap professor,
> 
> I don't know whether I like this lunch break business. You could be 000's up going into lunch, and the bailiffs moving in by the time you've finished your chicken chow mein.
> 
> Scary




yes it can be a bit dodgy. I'm glad I went and had lunch with Mrs frink today- I would have given back quite a bit of money, as today would have been one of the few occasions that I had enough open profit to warrant a hold over the HK lunch break.

Though on days like this, I probably could have bought the SPI or nik to attempt to hedge against any gap. Never tried that though so don't know how well it would work.


----------



## Edwood

sheesh BIG reversal today!  there has been some talk lately of which market leads which and the answer is pretty obvious there I think.

What's the view in terms of futures leading cash or vice versa - i.e, was todays SPI move just a futures-driven tree-shake?  Any thoughts?


----------



## porkpie324

I've noticed this, futures index's all moving in tandem, I use the Dow, FTSE with the ASX 200 its uncanny how they all keep in time right to the minute. porkpie


----------



## Edwood

thats true porkpie they do move in synch - I guess to reduce arb opportunities.  Frank D reckons most of the action is computer driven these days, I gues it wouldn't be hard for the large players to run algorithms to keep them in line

but on a move like todays on SPI is it merely futures driving the index lower, or vice versa?


----------



## professor_frink

Edwood said:


> thats true porkpie they do move in synch - I guess to reduce arb opportunities.  Frank D reckons most of the action is computer driven these days, I gues it wouldn't be hard for the large players to run algorithms to keep them in line
> 
> but on a move like todays on SPI is it merely futures driving the index lower, or vice versa?




which came first, the chicken or the egg?


----------



## porkpie324

I have just checked the FTSE index which was 6302.8 where on my CFD futures platform at exactly the same moment was 6301.porkpie


----------



## Captain_Chaza

professor_frink said:


> I Think I mentioned this during the Feb/Mar correction, but it might be time to bring it up again. During recent corrective periods, the SPI is very highly correlated with the nikkei, so I would highly recommend anyone trading the SPI to keep an eye on what the nikkei is doing.
> 
> The nikkei and the HSI normally feed off each other during the day(not just during corrections, it happens all the time with these 2), so it's a good idea to keep an eye on it as well.
> 
> Chart below to illustrate has the SPI on top, nikkei in the middle, and HSI at the bottom.
> 
> look at what happens when the nikkei goes to lunch- HK started selling off almost immediately. Once the nikkei came back from lunch, it followed the HK market lower, and so did we. And look at when the selling stopped- pretty well the second HK went to lunch.





I totaly agree with you, Professor!

Also as you have clearly pointed out in your triple chart format

Very Well done!
Which progarmme do you use to create those charts?

I also think "They" got it all wrong today 

NY rocketed in the last 20 mins
I think the Commodity markets closed earlier? and therefore our Mums and Dads got false readings

Normaly what happens is as the DOW goes north the Commodities needed to fuel this rise  RISE!

HOW CAN THEY RISE if they are closed?
20 minutes can sometimes be a long time at sea and very critical at times

Can you do a triple/quadruple chart on the rescourse sector?
EG: RIO /BHP vs few  Commodities 

Crickey!
Don't our Mums' and Dads' Fund Managers have a good set of Clocks 

It would lead some people to beleive  that 
"The World has gone Temporally Mad"

Salute and Gods' speed

"Time is Everything"


----------



## professor_frink

That chart is done with amibroker.

Yes, most commodity markets are closed earlier in the day, varies from commodity to commodity- crude shuts 2:30pm New York time, copper 1pm, gold 1:30, etc.

Whilst it's possible for me to do comparison charts of RIO, BHP, etc. I don't really have much in the way of data on commodities, and I keep my data for futures and stocks seperate, so can't do a comparison at this stage.


----------



## Edwood

yeah I get what you're saying but how difficult would it be for someone like Goldman Sachs or a large speculator to get stuck into the futures to drag the overall market lower (SPI today) or squeeze it higher (Dow into last nights close)?  With the benefit of leverage in my mind with futures it must'nt be that hard to push the market around.


----------



## professor_frink

Edwood said:


> yeah I get what you're saying but how difficult would it be for someone like Goldman Sachs or a large speculator to get stuck into the futures to drag the overall market lower (SPI today) or squeeze it higher (Dow into last nights close)?  With the benefit of leverage in my mind with futures it must'nt be that hard to push the market around.




it's a lot easier to move the market via the futures- if there is going to be any manipulation, it will be done there.


----------



## Captain_Chaza

Edwood said:


> yeah I get what you're saying but how difficult would it be for someone like Goldman Sachs or a large speculator to get stuck into the futures to drag the overall market lower (SPI today) or squeeze it higher (Dow into last nights close)?  With the benefit of leverage in my mind with futures it must'nt be that hard to push the market around.





I am not talking manipulation!

I am talking the Dumb leading the Dumber!

When this happens
Nobody is big enough to move markets and I pity anyone who tries

It's about as silly as thinking anyone can Ramp a Stock on their own

It can't be done !


Did you know that All chain letters break down sooner than later?


If it could be done we would have to jail all our taxi drivers LOL!


Salute and many thanks professor


----------



## CFD

professor_frink said:


> ~~
> look at what happens when the nikkei goes to lunch- HK started selling off almost immediately. Once the nikkei came back from lunch, it followed the HK market lower, and so did we. And look at when the selling stopped- pretty well the second HK went to lunch.




Given that HK is the last to close is this suggesting the Nikkei will re align itself towards HK when the Nikkei opens?


----------



## >Apocalypto<

professor_frink said:


> I Think I mentioned this during the Feb/Mar correction, but it might be time to bring it up again. During recent corrective periods, the SPI is very highly correlated with the nikkei, so I would highly recommend anyone trading the SPI to keep an eye on what the nikkei is doing.
> 
> The nikkei and the HSI normally feed off each other during the day(not just during corrections, it happens all the time with these 2), so it's a good idea to keep an eye on it as well.
> 
> Chart below to illustrate has the SPI on top, nikkei in the middle, and HSI at the bottom.
> 
> look at what happens when the nikkei goes to lunch- HK started selling off almost immediately. Once the nikkei came back from lunch, it followed the HK market lower, and so did we. And look at when the selling stopped- pretty well the second HK went to lunch.




at around the same time today the usd/JPY dropped like a stone as well, it also recovered as well not after knocking out my stop  got to love it.


----------



## Edwood

professor_frink said:


> it's a lot easier to move the market via the futures- if there is going to be any manipulation, it will be done there.




hiya Prof - wondered as much, someone shaking out weak longs


----------



## Edwood

meantime squeezing the shorts in the US...

"The SP500 rally last night was apparently due to an error. A US house made a mistake and bought 5400 futures when they should have bought just 54 futures. This turned all long var players, who were going to sell the close, into buyers. Since you cannot cancel MOC orders in the last 10 minutes, these var swap delta buyers had to buy back their MOC amount plus more to get the right hedge.

This amounted to $5billion worth of fake buying, causing the Dow to rally 250 points in 20 minutes..."


----------



## >Apocalypto<

Edwood said:


> meantime squeezing the shorts in the US...
> 
> "The SP500 rally last night was apparently due to an error. A US house made a mistake and bought 5400 futures when they should have bought just 54 futures. This turned all long var players, who were going to sell the close, into buyers. Since you cannot cancel MOC orders in the last 10 minutes, these var swap delta buyers had to buy back their MOC amount plus more to get the right hedge.
> 
> This amounted to $5billion worth of fake buying, causing the Dow to rally 250 points in 20 minutes..."




that's unbelievable,

thanks for the post Edwood


----------



## professor_frink

CFD said:


> Given that HK is the last to close is this suggesting the Nikkei will re align itself towards HK when the Nikkei opens?




No. The nikkei will react on open to overnight moves overseas, like our market does.


----------



## Pommiegranite

Trade_It said:


> that's unbelievable,
> 
> thanks for the post Edwood




Personally, being the sceptic that I am, I don't believe it.

Remember this case of not getting the decimal in the right place?


----------



## Edwood

I doubt very much it was a "mistake"


----------



## Trembling Hand

professor_frink said:


> I Think I mentioned this during the Feb/Mar correction, but it might be time to bring it up again. During recent corrective periods, the SPI is very highly correlated with the nikkei, so I would highly recommend anyone trading the SPI to keep an eye on what the nikkei is doing.
> 
> The nikkei and the HSI normally feed off each other during the day(not just during corrections, it happens all the time with these 2), so it's a good idea to keep an eye on it as well.





Another day of 1 to 1 to 1 moves on the SPI, Nikkei, HSI you could ad the YEN into that as well.


----------



## CanOz

trembling Hand said:


> Another day of 1 to 1 to 1 moves on the SPI, Nikkei, HSI you could ad the YEN into that as well.




YES! Thanks to Prof for pointing that out, i've made a couple more nice little scalps today in between meetings...scalping the ASX while watching the nikkei and HSI...allot of fun.

Cheers,


----------



## Nick Radge

Nice reverse Head & Shoulders on the 60-min chart...


----------



## Edwood

nice spot Nick, potential c or 3 up but personally not expecting too much too soon.  would like to see some more bottom probing to pull in some shorts for another grind


----------



## porkpie324

Hang on to your hats on Monday, FTSE down 34    1.06%
                                              DJI    down 281   2.09%
                                              BHP(london) down  2.4%
                                              ASX 200 Fut down to 5856
The US mkt held up ok until the last 2hrs of trading.

 As for the ASX200, this is getting down to this bull runs trend line.porkpie


----------



## Edwood

hows your trendline looking Porkpie?  potential bullish descending wedge setting up with some +ve divergence, well bullish until we drop out the bottom anyway


----------



## porkpie324

OK Mr Ed, trend line still holding it's at 5766 as of Friday, ASX200 at 5844 today.
 Interesting to note DJI trend line as on Friday at 11924 the DJI closed at 13181 thats still 1257 points above or 10.5%.
  Also this bull run started at exactly the same time ie DJI, FTSE & ASX200
                                                       porkpie


----------



## porkpie324

Forgot to add, I've noticed the MACD divergance also on the hourly chart, porkpie


----------



## Edwood

wedge has broken up, looking at around 80pt gap up for the open


----------



## Edwood

nice gap fade today if anyone took it - here's a stab at a count on the recent action - can potentially count a five move down so possibly due a decent pull-back now.  altho in these markets making predictions is a mugs game


----------



## Trembling Hand

Edwood said:


> nice gap fade today if anyone took it - here's a stab at a count on the recent action - can potentially count a five move down so possibly due a decent pull-back now.  altho in these markets making predictions is a mugs game




It was always on the cards, that was a suckers rally last night in the US. they actually had more stocks declining than went up.


----------



## Edwood

we got close to the 2.618 extension today, perhaps tonight.  we also have a trend line again for shorts, which is always nice


----------



## Edwood

s/bet rejected by 6,118 at the first attempt (6,115 SPI equiv) - not a bad move considering it started with a 'mistake'


----------



## CanOz

This may be a stupid question but.....is it possible to trade after ASX hours rally that occurs from time to time...and is this shorts covering?

Cheers,


----------



## Edwood

hi Can - SPI hours are 9:50am - 4:30pm, 5:10pm - 7am (or it might be 6am). looked like short covering today, we tested the HOD twice and it was taken over after the cash close so there were probably a few stops there to help it on up


----------



## CanOz

Edwood said:


> hi Can - SPI hours are 9:50am - 4:30pm, 5:10pm - 7am (or it might be 6am). looked like short covering today, we tested the HOD twice and it was taken over after the cash close so there were probably a few stops there to help it on up




Thanks Edwood, i'm curious about the little nuances that show themselves around open/closes etc.

Cheers,


----------



## Edwood

CanOz said:


> Thanks Edwood, i'm curious about the little nuances that show themselves around open/closes etc.
> 
> Cheers,




open & close are good times to be involved with SPI in my opinion Canaussieuck, definitely worth following them for a while, especially the gap opens - if you can be around for US close as it often sets up a good gap for Aus open.  I stuck a link up about gap opens on S&P the other day, think it was on this thread, worth having a read of that, same principles apply for SPI


----------



## Edwood

try these two Can

http://www.cbot.com/cbot/pub/cont_detail/0,3206,1070+14719,00.html

http://www.mypivots.com/articles/articles.aspx?artnum=43


----------



## >Apocalypto<

Guys please help.

look at this chart did the SPI do this last night? or is this market maker bull **** at its finest?

I am ready to call IG and say please explain. that is crap the dow did not fall that much. or am i missing something.


Cheers


----------



## professor_frink

Trade_It said:


> Guys please help.
> 
> look at this chart did the SPI do this last night? or is this market maker bull **** at its finest?
> 
> I am ready to call IG and say please explain. that is crap the dow did not fall that much. or am i missing something.
> 
> 
> Cheers




chart looks dodgy TI. SPI didn't get anywhere near the lows of the 4th last night.


----------



## >Apocalypto<

professor_frink said:


> chart looks dodgy TI. SPI didn't get anywhere near the lows of the 4th last night.




Cheers Frink I will be abusing IG after work


----------



## Trembling Hand

Trade_It said:


> Guys please help.
> 
> look at this chart did the SPI do this last night? or is this market maker bull **** at its finest?
> 
> I am ready to call IG and say please explain. that is crap the dow did not fall that much. or am i missing something.
> 
> 
> Cheers




Nah this is the SPI 15 min including night action. No wash out like that. Buggers!


----------



## professor_frink

Trade_It said:


> Cheers Frink I will be abusing IG after work




did you have a stop that was taken out by that spike TI, or could it have been an error in their charts?


----------



## >Apocalypto<

professor_frink said:


> did you have a stop that was taken out by that spike TI, or could it have been an error in their charts?




i had no trade on, but that is just not on at all. IG are really good most times. 

I will find out after work and post there comments.

seeing that kind of thing is enough to make me change brokers.


----------



## >Apocalypto<

trembling Hand said:


> Nah this is the SPI 15 min including night action. No wash out like that. Buggers!




cheers TH


----------



## CanOz

I was actually trading the USD/JAP pair with IG last week when i got one of these spikes over my stop, but it did nothing, like it never happened.

Cheers,


----------



## professor_frink

Trade_It said:


> i had no trade on, but that is just not on at all. IG are really good most times.
> 
> I will find out after work and post there comments.
> 
> seeing that kind of thing is enough to make me change brokers.




It could just be a data error in their charts.


----------



## Edwood

I wouldn't worry about it too much Trade It, happens a lot with the UK CFD & spreadbet co's - usually its dodgy data and if you had a trade on that was stopped out or if you tried to long that drop they'd rewind it.

but having said that those spikes have an uncanny knack of playing out!  so we could be in for some action soon


----------



## >Apocalypto<

Edwood said:


> I wouldn't worry about it too much Trade It, happens a lot with the UK CFD & spreadbet co's - usually its dodgy data and if you had a trade on that was stopped out or if you tried to long that drop they'd rewind it.
> 
> but having said that those spikes have an uncanny knack of playing out!  so we could be in for some action soon




spoke to IG,

the problem was with IT finance (charting company) not at there end.

they told me not to worry as their price never did that so there would have been no impact on any trade I had open.

good trading guys


----------



## SevenFX

WOW IG's spread is widening greater than usual out of hours...

How wide will it get, should the market become [more] volatile...?????

Current Spread between 7-10pts ouch 

SevenFX


----------



## >Apocalypto<

SevenFX said:


> WOW IG's spread is widening greater than usual out of hours...
> 
> How wide will it get, should the market become [more] volatile...?????
> 
> Current Spread between 7-10pts ouch
> 
> SevenFX




the Australian200 is its normal 5 point spread for me SevenFX


----------



## Captain_Chaza

Trade_It said:


> the Australian200 is its normal 5 point spread for me SevenFX




Such is life at sea!

Did you really expect anything else 'til the helicopters arrive? 

Salute and Gods' speed


----------



## Edwood

currently 90-odd point gap up for the open, mostly on the back of the UK today.  have taken a short for the open

weekly chart showing some long tails on the candles, altho current one a potential hangman


----------



## Edwood

closed short at the .618 retrace of the gap - that'll do for today


----------



## Edwood

doh!   gap closed now out too soon - never mind


----------



## professor_frink

Not to worry Ed, you got a piece and that's the important part

Current SPI chart below- can't say I can find much of a reason to be long right now. About the most bullish thing I can find on the chart is that we are at a pretty important S/R area. 6000 is becoming a key pivot area, price action wise, as well as being a key psychological level.


----------



## Edwood

gee last nights action doesn't even show up on that chart Prof!  we were 6,120+ at one point .  great ranges


----------



## professor_frink

Edwood said:


> gee last nights action doesn't even show up on that chart Prof!  we were 6,120+ at one point .  great ranges




yeah it's a chart of the day session only


----------



## Edwood

professor_frink said:


> yeah it's a chart of the day session only




aye figured as much - but 240pts range o/night.  crazy markets


----------



## Edwood

probably stating the obvious but we've now closed the gap from yesterday's open, currently acting as resistence


----------



## Edwood

professor_frink said:


> yeah it's a chart of the day session only




lol!  just re-read that - probablee makes me sound a bit fik - meant to say we were up 120 o/night at one stage and not even a gap at the open today to show for it


----------



## professor_frink

Edwood said:


> lol!  just re-read that - probablee makes me sound a bit fik - meant to say we were up 120 o/night at one stage and not even a gap at the open today to show for it




All good Ed, I know what you were getting at

Big bounce off the monthly S1 earlier this morning- has been a good knife catching area pretty well all month so far.


----------



## Edwood

he he - cheers Prof - bit of tumbleweed here today... 

only just noticed this - wouldn't be surprised to see your S1 getting tested again

edited - rather than stick up another chart added a fib to it - overnight we were rejected spot on 50% retrace from the high


----------



## professor_frink

Edwood said:


> he he - cheers Prof - bit of tumbleweed here today...
> 
> only just noticed this - wouldn't be surprised to see your S1 getting tested again
> 
> edited - rather than stick up another chart added a fib to it - overnight we were rejected spot on 50% retrace from the high




Looks good for another test today. It's looking very weak right now, and some fireworks could follow if it breaks down


----------



## Edwood

professor_frink said:


> Looks good for another test today. It's looking very weak right now, and some fireworks could follow if it breaks down




hmm lod managed to hold - probably happen o.night then


----------



## Edwood

haven't got my system up but I see US was down quite a bit - can anyone see if we set a marginal new low o/night on SPI or is that hammer still in play?  tia


----------



## professor_frink

Edwood said:


> haven't got my system up but I see US was down quite a bit - can anyone see if we set a marginal new low o/night on SPI or is that hammer still in play?  tia




chart below Ed. No new lows at this stage.


----------



## Trembling Hand

Edwood said:


> haven't got my system up but I see US was down quite a bit - can anyone see if we set a marginal new low o/night on SPI or is that hammer still in play?  tia




Not overnight but they may be all changed in an hour or two


----------



## Edwood

cool thanks guys - so prob more down to come then, initially anyway

tempted to start looking for longs tho if we get over-extended today - I know bottom picking is best left to the monkeys but US indicies are looking a tad like bullish falling wedges imo.


----------



## Trembling Hand

Been flipping long and shorts all morning. in and out within sec/min.
Got a long on at 5804. Looking to hold until I'm stopped out or we get back up Higher. How High? not sure yet.


----------



## professor_frink

trembling Hand said:


> Been flipping long and shorts all morning. in and out within sec/min.
> Got a long on at 5804. Looking to hold until I'm stopped out or we get back up Higher. How High? not sure yet.




overnight lows from the 10th are @25, we are currently stalling at that level right now. A Break up and I'll be reversing into a long with a view to scale in if it keeps going.


----------



## Trembling Hand

professor_frink said:


> overnight lows from the 10th are @25, we are currently stalling at that level right now. A Break up and I'll be reversing into a long with a view to scale in if it keeps going.




Yep looks like the shorts are defending that level. Yen has started to find resistance. All bets off if that takes off again but feeling OK about his long.

Famous last words????


----------



## professor_frink

trembling Hand said:


> Yep looks like the shorts are defending that level. Yen has started to find resistance. All bets off if that takes off again but feeling OK about his long.
> 
> Famous last words????




We have break of 25, so I've put a long out to test the waters.


----------



## Trembling Hand

professor_frink said:


> We have break of 25, so I've put a long out to test the waters.




Just cut half the trade @ 5833. will let the rest run. Or even add to it a bit lower if given the chance.


----------



## professor_frink

trembling Hand said:


> Just cut half the trade @ 5833. will let the rest run. Or even add to it a bit lower if given the chance.




Mine has turned into a quick scalp- I'm out already. I'm not liking the action in the rest of Asia- nikkei has put in a double top, and HK has moved down to new lows after the opening gap.


----------



## Edwood

nice work chaps - seems to be playing out ok so far 

would be good to see another test of the bottom


----------



## Trembling Hand

professor_frink said:


> Mine has turned into a quick scalp- I'm out already. I'm not liking the action in the rest of Asia- nikkei has put in a double top, and HK has moved down to new lows after the opening gap.




Yeah watch out for the 2:00 to 2:30 margin call time. A lot of the specie and mid cap stuff have just turned into Junk.

I'm with you I'm Out but looking to get back in. Not a bad trade but just not the push I was looking for from the Bulls. Time to get some food and get ready for the mess at 2:00


----------



## Edwood

trembling Hand said:


> Yen has started to find resistance.




kiwi putting in some reversal signals against USD and GBP too now fwiw after some hefty drops - looks to be running out of steam


----------



## Edwood

off topic - but here's an update on the weekly bearish bat on kiwi-sterling that was highlighted some time ago - coming good now


----------



## Trembling Hand

Edwood said:


> kiwi putting in some reversal signals against USD and GBP too now fwiw after some hefty drops - looks to be running out of steam




There goes the YEN. new high 5 month high to the USD and others. Glad I got spooked out of that long. Who said a jelly spine will do you no good?


----------



## CanOz

trembling Hand said:


> There goes the YEN. new high 5 month high to the USD and others. Glad I got spooked out of that long. Who said a jelly spine will do you no good?




Its not going down without a fight (USD), just spiked 35 pips. scared me out of my ASX short.


----------



## Edwood

trembling Hand said:


> Glad I got spooked out of that long. Who said a jelly spine will do you no good?




 good move - no point trying to be a hero in these markets!


----------



## CanOz

Is it just me or is the USD/JPY leading this session? Maybe it always leads, just seems that the ASX200 is following?

Looks like its sitting on my daily S1 for now.

Cheers,


----------



## Trembling Hand

CanOz said:


> Is it just me or is the USD/JPY leading this session? Maybe it always leads, just seems that the ASX200 is following?
> 
> Looks like its sitting on my daily S1 for now.
> 
> Cheers,




Nope thats just about all that matters here. The carry trade.


----------



## professor_frink

5770

getting ugly out there!


----------



## Edwood

spreadbet cos have Dow at 12,964 currently


----------



## caribean

Everything's droping...solid bearish trend, i'm finding it difficult to deal with, it should be what all traders are wishing for, a solid trend to follow...and yet we(at least i am) are conditioned to choppy trading, and caution, certainly with currencies i was doing a lot better predicting the next mini swing...i guess i've got a lot to learn


----------



## professor_frink

Edwood said:


> spreadbet cos have Dow at 12,964 currently




September Dow futs @13007. Normally you would expect a bit of a battle to try and breach a round number like that, but in this market, I'm not sure how much ammo the bulls have left.

Log chart of the cash index below for the bullmarket to date. Looks like we've hit a fairly significant point.


----------



## Edwood

bounce time then you think Prof?

the s/bet co's do a 'rolling cash' bet and also offer quarterly bets that synch in with the various futures contracts - not sure if the CFD providers do the same?  Often the s/bet co's call the cash open pretty well - Cantor, IG, & CMC are often quoted pre-open on UK radio for FTSE.

CMC's Dow rolling cash has moved up from a low of 12,955, currently sitting on 13,002 while the Sept quarterly is at 13,046-54.  cash bounced off the 200ma


----------



## professor_frink

Edwood said:


> bounce time then you think Prof?
> 
> the s/bet co's do a 'rolling cash' bet and also offer quarterly bets that synch in with the various futures contracts - not sure if the CFD providers do the same?  Often the s/bet co's call the cash open pretty well - Cantor, IG, & CMC are often quoted pre-open on UK radio for FTSE.
> 
> CMC's Dow rolling cash has moved up from a low of 12,955, currently sitting on 13,002 while the Sept quarterly is at 13,046-54.  cash bounced off the 200ma




maybe. Think I'll keep the long trades to a minimum but Won't be any o/n holds unless there is some pretty decent gains picked up during any intraday rally.


----------



## Edwood

yeah typical me Prof, always looking countertrend


----------



## caribean

Yesterday's DAX futures action, if you switched off couple of hours before the end of trading, you could have thought it finished the session up.....ahhh! the volatility....


----------



## CanOz

Its really hard not to imagine a bounce today off that Jan high, but after last nites late plunge on the DOW, and the further weakness in the USD/JPY i can't see it holding...any thoughts on these levels?

Cheers,


----------



## chops_a_must

CanOz said:


> Its really hard not to imagine a bounce today off that Jan high, but after last nites late plunge on the DOW, and the further weakness in the USD/JPY i can't see it holding...any thoughts on these levels?
> 
> Cheers,



Yesterday Guppy was talking about sideways trading once into that channel between 5450 and 5650. Looks logical to me...

Appears to be a lot of confluence for support around the 5600 mark on various types of analysis.

Cheers,
Chops.


----------



## professor_frink

Edwood said:


> yeah typical me Prof, always looking countertrend




all good Ed- to be expected trading in these kinds of timeframes


----------



## professor_frink

CanOz said:


> Its really hard not to imagine a bounce today off that Jan high, but after last nites late plunge on the DOW, and the further weakness in the USD/JPY i can't see it holding...any thoughts on these levels?
> 
> Cheers,




You'd expect some buyers to come in around this level- it's an area I'll be keeping an eye on today for a potential rally.


----------



## CanOz

Well i'm out of my short this morning with a tiny loss, its I've got it right at the weekly S2. I might jump in again if the USD/JPY pair goes through it daily S1 that i've got at 16100 ish.

Cheers,


----------



## Trembling Hand

Yen pulling back seems to be no help at the moment.


----------



## Edwood

Kiwi-sterling


----------



## CanOz

CanOz said:


> Well i'm out of my short this morning with a tiny loss, its I've got it right at the weekly S2. I might jump in again if the USD/JPY pair goes through it daily S1 that i've got at 16100 ish.
> 
> Cheers,




Ooops I was looking at the Nikkie chart thinking it was the currency pair....too many drafts last nite...better not trade for a couple of hours!

Cheers,


----------



## professor_frink

CanOz said:


> Well i'm out of my short this morning with a tiny loss, its I've got it right at the weekly S2. I might jump in again if the USD/JPY pair goes through it daily S1 that i've got at 16100 ish.
> 
> Cheers,




ever look at midpoints canuck? Weekly midpoints in yelllow on the chart below. Lined up pretty well with yesterday's day session low


----------



## CanOz

Mid-point

How do you calculate them Prof?

Cheers,


----------



## professor_frink

CanOz said:


> Mid-point
> 
> How do you calculate them Prof?
> 
> Cheers,




a midpoint is simply half way between 2 pivots, so if S1 is @ 5800 and S2 is @ 5700, the midpoint for S1/S2 is 5750. I find them more useful for longer timeframes like weekly and monthly PP's, but can be used for the daily timeframe as well.


----------



## CanOz

Thanks Prof!

WOW, this is crashing now!!!! Everythings just plummeting!


----------



## professor_frink

CanOz said:


> Thanks Prof!
> 
> WOW, this is crashing now!!!! Everythings just plummeting!




Yep, it's all looking pretty bad for the longs right now!

What's the cash index doing? For some reason my chart for the cash isn't updating.


----------



## CanOz

Just bounced off the daily S2 at 5583, now at 5614....


----------



## professor_frink

just got a bulletin from IB saying the SNFE will be shut down at 12:45 due to a problem, and may be shut down for up to an hour and a half

Thought I'd give you guys the heads up- god knows what the cash market will do when the futs are offline


----------



## Trembling Hand

professor_frink said:


> just got a bulletin from IB saying the SNFE will be shut down at 12:45 due to a problem, and may be shut down for up to an hour and a half
> 
> Thought I'd give you guys the heads up- god knows what the cash market will do when the futs are offline




Yep they are turning off the switch. MELT DOWN . WEAK bastards.


----------



## CanOz

professor_frink said:


> just got a bulletin from IB saying the SNFE will be shut down at 12:45 due to a problem, and may be shut down for up to an hour and a half
> 
> Thought I'd give you guys the heads up- god knows what the cash market will do when the futs are offline




Excellent Prof, well done, thanks for the heads up!!!


----------



## CanOz

CanOz said:


> Just bounced off the daily S2 at 5583, now at 5614....




Now channeling between my two pivots on the cash index....


----------



## Trembling Hand

I bottom pick this DOG and going to hold a small part of it thru the black out.


----------



## professor_frink

trembling Hand said:


> I bottom pick this DOG and going to hold a small part of it thru the black out.




bold move TH. Hope it works for you. I'm off to play elsewhere whilst this is going on.


----------



## Trembling Hand

professor_frink said:


> bold move TH. Hope it works for you. I'm off to play elsewhere whilst this is going on.




Thinking it will just stabilize. have cut 80% of it will have to open down about 100 ticks from the low to turn it into a lose. So will let it ride. May even hold this baby overnight if we can hold the low already in. This Stinks like an exhaustion.


----------



## doctorj

Just heard that SFE will be suspending trading for a atleast 45 minutes starting in about 15 minutes time.

Edit: Beaten to it.


----------



## professor_frink

trembling Hand said:


> Thinking it will just stabilize. have cut 80% of it will have to open down about 100 ticks from the low to turn it into a lose. So will let it ride. May even hold this baby overnight if we can hold the low already in. This Stinks like an exhaustion.




You very well may be right, and with that kind of buffer it's well worth the shot IMO. The current rally has coincided with the announcement pretty well- at this stage it just looks like short covering ahead of the shut down.


----------



## Edwood

closed kiwi short - its gone vertical


----------



## Trembling Hand

professor_frink said:


> You very well may be right, and with that kind of buffer it's well worth the shot IMO. The current rally has coincided with the announcement pretty well- at this stage it just looks like short covering ahead of the shut down.




stabilize alright. Into a nice down trend. put on some shorts on CBA, and NAB as a bit of a hedge. Wonder how many others are doing like wise and pushing us down?


----------



## caleb2003

anyone else using IG noticed they just pushed their spread on asx200 to 8 points!


----------



## Edwood

wowzer!  kiwi-sterling now at 2.9048 - only took this pic a few mins ago


----------



## professor_frink

trembling Hand said:


> stabilize alright. Into a nice down trend. put on some shorts on CBA, and NAB as a bit of a hedge. Wonder how many others are doing like wise and pushing us down?




lucky you've set up some kind of a hedge- it's going to be quite the nasty gap down when it re opens


----------



## professor_frink

Edwood said:


> wowzer!  kiwi-sterling now at 2.9048 - only took this pic a few mins ago




that's huge Ed


----------



## professor_frink

SPI will re open @ 2:05. Good luck TH- hope you've worked your hedge well


----------



## Trembling Hand

professor_frink said:


> SPI will re open @ 2:05. Good luck TH- hope you've worked your hedge well




Worked well. actually made a little on the Hedge. Should of been more but stupidly i added to it. then ended up covering a bit higher than my second entry  . But it worked. Boy did that test my nerves. I'm out but looking for some more fun on a dip.


----------



## professor_frink

trembling Hand said:


> Worked well. actually made a little on the Hedge. Should of been more but stupidly i added to it. then ended up covering a bit higher than my second entry  . But it worked. Boy did that test my nerves. I'm out but looking for some more fun on a dip.




nice work Glad it worked for you.

Sounds like you'll need a couple of drinks at the end of the day to calm the nerves!


----------



## CanOz

This looks like capitualtion and buyers coming back in. I've got gaps on my 5 minute chart as its going back up...

Cheers,


----------



## CanOz

Does this look right or is IG playing funny buggers?


----------



## Trembling Hand

CanOz said:


> Does this look right or is IG playing funny buggers?





Nope thats it


----------



## >Apocalypto<

CanOz said:


> Does this look right or is IG playing funny buggers?




no its correct lol @ funny buggers. I am watching the actual xjo though Sanford

what happened with IG and HK thing Can?


Good trading


----------



## CanOz

Trade_It said:


> no its correct lol @ funny buggers. I am watching the actual xjo though Sanford
> 
> what happened with IG and HK thing Can?
> 
> 
> Good trading




They stood firm. I gave up. Just had my IB account approved yesterday, trying to wire in the funds today....

TI you think those gaps will get filled?

Cheers,


----------



## >Apocalypto<

CanOz said:


> They stood firm. I gave up. Just had my IB account approved yesterday, trying to wire in the funds today....
> 
> TI you think those gaps will get filled?
> 
> Cheers,




what pricks you tell them your leaving and posting your experience on every forum and web site u can from Aust to china!

Can I could not tell you. TH made some very good points about what's going on here XAO thread.

I am a spectator today, even though IG have corrected the spread now.

Have fun!


----------



## Edwood

might be significant, time will tell I guess.  Bang on the Jan low (cheers Prof)

not around tomorrow so good luck all!


----------



## porkpie324

According to my charts the bull run  trend which started March 03 was breached yesterday and quite significantly too. porkpie


----------



## Trembling Hand

Hey Professor

the little old spi is acting more like the HK today. no 1 point spread today. Very jumpy.


----------



## professor_frink

trembling Hand said:


> Hey Professor
> 
> the little old spi is acting more like the HK today. no 1 point spread today. Very jumpy.




I haven't been watching too closely- kospi came up first for a trade this morning, so I jumped on it instead. That run down in the SPI looks like it would have been a pretty wild ride.

A couple of months ago, I would have been happy to have a trade on the SPI and another market at the same time. Right now, if I put a trade on, I'm not game to take my eyes off it and look at anything else

This volatility is freakin nuts!


----------



## Trembling Hand

professor_frink said:


> This volatility is freakin nuts!




And very welcome. How tame will it feel when/if we return to the same old stuff.


----------



## professor_frink

trembling Hand said:


> And very welcome. How tame will it feel when/if we return to the same old stuff.




I'm really happy I went off and started trading the HK futs earlier this year- it has been great prep work for this kind of market


----------



## professor_frink

Been having a look at the depth TH and it definitely looks a bit dodgy. Are you still in there flipping trades as quickly as you usually do today?


----------



## Kauri

Nice little trade on the 1 Minute chart...


----------



## Trembling Hand

professor_frink said:


> Been having a look at the depth TH and it definitely looks a bit dodgy. Are you still in there flipping trades as quickly as you usually do today?




Nah moved into position trading mode today. I have to be very careful not to do that stuff on days like today. Can get cut to pieces on the wrong day. I find it hard not to want to flip every little push and pull on the Market depth screen. Have to almost not look at it and just trade off the Charts. 

 HK just got all messed up!!


----------



## professor_frink

trembling Hand said:


> Nah moved into position trading mode today. I have to be very careful not to do that stuff on days like today. Can get cut to pieces on the wrong day. I find it hard not to want to flip every little push and pull on the Market depth screen. Have to almost not look at it and just trade off the Charts.




Wise move- I often find not having the DOM up for the HK markets to be more helpful- less to worry about



trembling Hand said:


> HK just got all messed up!!




yeah it's been good- wicked counter trend rally right now in the H-shares. Nearly 100 points in less than 5 minutes


----------



## professor_frink

Kauri said:


> Nice little trade on the 1 Minute chart...




sweet. EW on a 1 minute chart- you must have been quite busy this morning!


----------



## Kauri

professor_frink said:


> sweet. EW on a 1 minute chart- you must have been quite busy this morning!




 Hi Prof, 
           Out now for a quickie.. ( quick trade that is)..
           Always busy.. or I like to think so..  
 Cheers
.......Kauri


----------



## Trembling Hand

professor_frink said:


> Wise move- I often find not having the DOM up for the HK markets to be more helpful- less to worry about
> 
> yeah it's been good- wicked counter trend rally right now in the H-shares. Nearly 100 points in less than 5 minutes




Yeah i think that's where most of my stuff ups come from. I'm a scalper most of the time. Very hard to throw out one way to trade and take up another. But the market is not going to give me what I want. Its always throwing you some form of distraction. 

But I'm certainly not going to complain about 100 tick ranges to trade. 

I think this maybe the best market I have ever traded.
So stuff the scalping. Have pulled out the big guns for the big ranges. :bazooka:


----------



## professor_frink

Kauri said:


> Hi Prof,
> Out now for a quickie.. ( quick trade that is)..
> Always busy.. or I like to think so..
> Cheers
> .......Kauri




I can see a very similar pattern playing out in the kospi today too. Not game to trade off an EW count intraday when I struggle to label them properly EOD! Think I'll stick basic trend following for the moment.


----------



## Kauri

another quickie... may be selling down to avoid holding for the weekend now??


----------



## Kauri

And out for the second quickie...
       off fishing now to unwind  
 Cheers
.......Kauri


----------



## Kauri

another quickie...?? but I'm not in this one... the fish are calling... I've never seen so many E/W setups on the 1 Minute chart..  
 Cheers
.........Kauri


----------



## Kauri

Looks to me that the trading opportunities for my trading style are over for the day... and I really should take some bait when I go fishing..  ..
 Cheers
.......Kauri


----------



## Trembling Hand

The SPI is toasted. Got a short on I'm holding overnight. Going to be a long one, I only got 3 hours sleep last night.

:22_yikes: look at HK. what a mess.


----------



## Kauri

Kauri said:


> Looks to me that the trading opportunities for my trading style* are over for the day*... and I really should take some bait when I go fishing..  ..
> Cheers
> .......Kauri




   Feeling happy..   ...

   TH.. looks like it has a ways to go yet.. good trading...
  Cheers
.......Kauri


----------



## Trembling Hand

Kauri said:


> Feeling happy..   ...
> 
> TH.. looks like it has a ways to go yet.. good trading...
> Cheers
> .......Kauri




yeah It seems this volititlity will never end.......


----------



## Trembling Hand

Gee guys I'm struggling to trade this strength. Looks to far gone to get in on the long side. Been burnt trying to short it. All i can seem to do today is scalp the bid/ask. Not much fun


----------



## CanOz

trembling Hand said:


> Gee guys I'm struggling to trade this strength. Looks to far gone to get in on the long side. Been burnt trying to short it. All i can seem to do today is scalp the bid/ask. Not much fun





I've got that 5865ish line as pretty important at the moment on 200 Cash. Smells like profit takers to me....watching the USD/JPY pair too, just hit a new daily high.

Cheers,


----------



## Kauri

Just taken a short... looking for a drop to WC...
   Cheers
..........Kauri


----------



## wayneL

Kauri said:


> Just taken a short... looking for a drop to WC...
> Cheers
> ..........Kauri



What's WC?


----------



## Kauri

wayneL said:


> What's WC?




   Got a penny and I'll show you...


----------



## wayneL

Wave C

Doh!


----------



## Kauri

Stopped out... and not a convincing WC... yet??


----------



## Edwood

trembling Hand said:


> Gee guys I'm struggling to trade this strength. Looks to far gone to get in on the long side. Been burnt trying to short it. All i can seem to do today is scalp the bid/ask. Not much fun




hi TH - something I've noticed with SPI gap opens - often if it hasn't made a decent attempt at a retrace within the first 30-45 mins or so you'll get a trending day.  can be a frustrating grind if you get stuck trying to fade it.


----------



## Trembling Hand

Edwood said:


> hi TH - something I've noticed with SPI gap opens - often if it hasn't made a decent attempt at a retrace within the first 30-45 mins or so you'll get a trending day.  can be a frustrating grind if you get stuck trying to fade it.




Yep. I have a trade setup that is based on the opening range in relation to the overnight action. Which was triggered on today's open, only trouble is when it gaps up 3% its a bit hard to think its going to 5%


----------



## chops_a_must

Edwood said:


> hi TH - something I've noticed with SPI gap opens - often if it hasn't made a decent attempt at a retrace within the first 30-45 mins or so you'll get a trending day.  can be a frustrating grind if you get stuck trying to fade it.



I've noticed the same thing while paper trading. Fade plays being one of my main strategies.

I know people fade back to S3, R3 or Cramer, but I'm going to look at the probability limits of filling gaps on opens. Has anyone previously done a similar thing?

I'll let you know when I eventually get around to it.

Cheers,
Chops.


----------



## Edwood

chops_a_must said:


> I've noticed the same thing while paper trading. Fade plays being one of my main strategies.
> 
> I know people fade back to S3, R3 or Cramer, but I'm going to look at the probability limits of filling gaps on opens. Has anyone previously done a similar thing?
> 
> I'll let you know when I eventually get around to it.
> 
> Cheers,
> Chops.




hi Chops - would be interested to hear what you find out.  I haven't done any detailed study on it yet either but % retrace to gap fib levels is one thing I'll be looking at at - as well as to fib extensions on the gap.

fibs, % gap open, where the gap fits in the overall action etc - all important but not as important as the price action in the first few minutes in my opinion


----------



## Kauri

If this plays out I guess we might end the day pretty flat??
 Cheers
........Kauri


----------



## Edwood

Kauri said:


> If this plays out I guess we might end the day pretty flat??
> Cheers
> ........Kauri




your large 5 could be a 3 - whats the fib extension off 1 out of interest?


----------



## Kauri

Kauri said:


> If this plays out I guess we might end the day pretty flat??
> Cheers
> ........Kauri




  Well I didn't quite see that coming...
 Cheers
...Kauri


----------



## Edwood

interesting the difference between the cash chart & your all sessions chart Kauri - cash it looks as though we were still in 4 later in the day yesterday, & now moving up into 5


----------



## DAZT49

what technique are you guys using here..new to thread.


----------



## Kauri

Edwood said:


> interesting the difference between the cash chart & your all sessions chart Kauri - cash it looks as though we were still in 4 later in the day yesterday, & now moving up into 5




  Hi Edwood..
                 very interesting... I'm trading off the IG Markets platform.. don't know if it ties up with your cash chart???
    Just pyramided into my original long on todays chart.. second trade not looking too flash at the moment...  
       Cheers
..........Kauri


----------



## porkpie324

Any thing but GANN Daz. Going on my trend line theme its interesting to note that although the ASX 200 broke through this bull trend line the DJI did not,also the long trend line which started 1982 is still holding with the DJI. porkpie


----------



## Edwood

hi Dazt49, welcome to the thread

there's a mix of stuff pops up on the thread really, price action, pivots, support & resistance, trend following, patterns, fibs (quite a few fibs from time to time! ), & some use time as well

Kauri is using something called an Elliott Wave method to count the waves of price action, which basically splits moves down into impulsive and corrective action - EW aims to identify the next "likely" course of action


----------



## Edwood

yours will look totally different Kauri - the cash chart is only showing normal session so misses all the out of hours.  so mine is probably more relevant to the XAO thread really


----------



## Kauri

Edwood said:


> yours will look totally different Kauri - the cash chart is only showing normal session so misses all the out of hours. so mine is probably more relevant to the XAO thread really




  Hi Edwood,
                Ok, sorry about posting in the wrong thread..   I'll fade away and maybe find a thread thats more relevant..    Good trading to all
 Cheers
..........Kauri


----------



## DAZT49

Thanks guys.
I always take XJO and the DOW into account with trading my decisions. 
I havent traded the xjo as yet.
Will watch with interest.


----------



## Trembling Hand

Kauri said:


> Hi Edwood,
> Ok, sorry about posting in the wrong thread..   I'll fade away and maybe find a thread thats more relevant..    Good trading to all
> Cheers
> ..........Kauri




I would think what you are trading is linked to the SPI. would certainly have to be for the out of hours prices.


----------



## Edwood

Kauri said:


> Hi Edwood,
> Ok, sorry about posting in the wrong thread..   I'll fade away and maybe find a thread thats more relevant..    Good trading to all
> Cheers
> ..........Kauri




no no Kauri, I think we've got some wires crossed - MINE should be on XAO 

I just stuck a cash chart up here to flag that counts on a cash chart can be completely different to counts on all-sessions SPI.  Some people only count cash charts to avoid the out-of-hours mess.  I'm not saying one is better than the other its just that some people have a preference either way


----------



## Edwood

trembling Hand said:


> I would think what you are trading is linked to the SPI. would certainly have to be for the out of hours prices.




yeah thats right - it'll be loosely linked to SPI or XJO.   loosely so the CFD market makers can move it around to suit them


----------



## professor_frink

chops_a_must said:


> I've noticed the same thing while paper trading. Fade plays being one of my main strategies.
> 
> I know people fade back to S3, R3 or Cramer, but I'm going to look at the probability limits of filling gaps on opens. Has anyone previously done a similar thing?
> 
> I'll let you know when I eventually get around to it.
> 
> Cheers,
> Chops.




afternoon chops,

from the data I have, day session gaps are filled the next trading day over 60% of the time.


----------



## porkpie324

I have been analysing the ASX200 CFD hourly chart, have noticed that this aproach gives some good trades, I use my own charting software for hourly data which I type in manually.
Then using the hourly chart as long term trend indicator, I  then use a 3 minute chart for entry & exit positions, both long and short positions look like being  profitable. 
Hav'nt done any actual trades yet but anyone else trading or researching this method. porkpie


----------



## Trembling Hand

This is what I trade off.


----------



## porkpie324

OK TH I get your drift your not keen on CFD's, but my observations were around using an hourly chart as a long term trend indicator and using a 3min chart for trades.
With CFDs you can make just a dollar per pip trade, so it's a good place for a novice SPI trader to start.porkpie


----------



## Trembling Hand

porkpie324 said:


> OK TH I get your drift your not keen on CFD's, but my observations were around using an hourly chart as a long term trend indicator and using a 3min chart for trades.
> With CFDs you can make just a dollar per pip trade, so it's a good place for a novice SPI trader to start.porkpie




Yep no problems there


----------



## porkpie324

TH having said re my last post, I do like your platform for market depth. porkpie


----------



## Trembling Hand

porkpie324 said:


> TH having said re my last post, I do like your platform for market depth. porkpie




One big disadvantage that you have IMO with CFDs is the lack of volume and order flow. you just don't see the buying and selling action and what is sitting in the order book.


----------



## Kauri

Over and out for the day... I think
 Cheers
......Kauri


----------



## porkpie324

I have to agree TH volume & mkt depth is not there with my CFD platform, is it possible for you to name your trading platform or providor.porkpie


----------



## Trembling Hand

porkpie324 said:


> I have to agree TH volume & mkt depth is not there with my CFD platform, is it possible for you to name your trading platform or providor.porkpie




Yeah its http://individuals.interactivebrokers.com/en/main.php
If you have an account with them ASX data is $40 per month and SFE data free!
I used to get the data from Bourse data but its bloody expensive.


----------



## Kauri

May be a short coming up???
Cheers
.....Kauri


----------



## porkpie324

Many thanks TH will check them out, porkpie


----------



## Trembling Hand

Kauri said:


> May be a short coming up???
> Cheers
> .....Kauri




Yep I'm with you I got short right on that peak.
I had to help a delivery man bring in some new chairs. Lucky I probably would of taken a bit off the trade had I been watching it. 

So now that I'm getting greedy watch it run back up


----------



## professor_frink

how do you find booktrader TH?

I thought you used ninja? You posted a chart in one of the other threads that was done by ninjatrader, or was that someone else


----------



## Trembling Hand

professor_frink said:


> how do you find booktrader TH?
> 
> I thought you used ninja? You posted a chart in one of the other threads that was done by ninjatrader, or was that someone else




Nah I do but I'm having some real IT issues today and yesterday. Having trouble with the Ninja to IB connection as well as other things. You know when 1 thing stuffs up it all does. IB's Booktrader is OK just a bit to clunky. IB's charts are rubbish.


----------



## porkpie324

MACD divergance on the 3 min chart, but hourly chart still indicating long positions, unless of course hourly chart trend changing.porkpie


----------



## professor_frink

trembling Hand said:


> Nah I do but I'm having some real IT issues today and yesterday. Having trouble with the Ninja to IB connection as well as other things. You know when 1 thing stuffs up it all does. IB's Booktrader is OK just a bit to clunky. IB's charts are rubbish.




Yeah their charts a pretty poor. You could try using quotetracker for back up charts if you're having probs with ninja. Doesn't have a DOM though. Another option is Quotetrader- is meant to be pretty good too.


----------



## Trembling Hand

professor_frink said:


> Yeah their charts a pretty poor. You could try using quotetracker for back up charts if you're having probs with ninja. Doesn't have a DOM though. Another option is Quotetrader- is meant to be pretty good too.




Thanks. the charts are still working but the orders are doing some real dodgy stuff. Getting lost somewhere between IB and the exchange. Of course the first thing IB says is that its the Ninja but same crap with TWS.
Spent 4 hours last night calling the States trying to get it fixed!!

Our little short is working so far thinking I will cover  most of it 10 points lower......... if given the chance.


----------



## Kauri

trembling Hand said:


> Our little short is working so far thinking I will cover most of it 10 points lower......... if given the chance.




  Hi TH,
           I'm following my stop closely now, in case of a *W1 or A *...
  Cheers
...Kauri


----------



## Trembling Hand

Kauri said:


> Hi TH,
> I'm following my stop closely now, in case of a *W1 or A *...
> Cheers
> ...Kauri




Covered most now. got a little left just as a see "what happens".


----------



## Kauri

trembling Hand said:


> Covered most now. got a little left just as a see "what happens".




TH,
         I'm done... time to go for a walk before it rains..
 Cheers
..........Kauri


----------



## wiseguy

Hi TH,

I'm thinking about opening an account with IB and using Ninja trader or Quotetracker.
I was just wondering do you have to pay the $40 ASX each month to receive a data feed on the SPI?
Does IB provide data such as time&sales and vol on the SPI contracts?

Cheers!
W


----------



## Trembling Hand

wiseguy said:


> Hi TH,
> 
> I'm thinking about opening an account with IB and using Ninja trader or Quotetracker.
> I was just wondering do you have to pay the $40 ASX each month to receive a data feed on the SPI?
> Does IB provide data such as time&sales and vol on the SPI contracts?
> 
> Cheers!
> W




No the SFE data is free. and yes you get volume and sales info from IB you just need a better better program than what IB gives you to chart it. Just the ASX data is $40 per month.


----------



## Kauri

A little short to start the day???
Cheers
...Kauri


----------



## Edwood

Seems intent on closing all the gaps left behind on the way down - but in its haste its leaving lots of gaps below


----------



## Kauri

an interesting tussle today
Cheers
....Kauri


----------



## Bronte

Kauri said:


> an interesting tussle today
> Cheers
> ....Kauri



That's for sure Kauri 

Any SPI traders 'Sell' the Open this morning ?


----------



## Kauri

Bronte said:


> That's for sure Kauri
> 
> Any SPI traders 'Sell' the Open this morning ?




    Wish you had told me at the open... the markets been open for the best part of 4 Hours now!!!!! 
  Cheers
.......Kauri


----------



## Bronte

Sorry, 
Told you what Kauri ? 
It was only a question.

I will 'Sell' a gap open tomorrow....if we have one


----------



## Edwood

not selling these gaps yet Bronte, took a scalp around 12 but otherwise waiting for these 'pop-n-go' moves to settle down a bit


----------



## Kauri

Bronte said:


> Sorry,
> Told you what Kauri ?
> It was a question.



  Bronte,
 Sorry, when I first read it I swear it said another... not any... must be getting dyslexia..   
 Cheers
.Kauri


----------



## Trembling Hand

Bronte said:


> That's for sure Kauri
> 
> Any SPI traders 'Sell' the Open this morning ?




Yeah I had a couple of goes. nothing special.


----------



## Bronte

Bronte said:


> I will 'Sell' a gap open tomorrow....if we have one




No worries Kauri 
Great work on E/W


----------



## Trembling Hand

trembling Hand said:


> Yeah I had a couple of goes. nothing special.




Whoops meant to add a chart


----------



## Bronte

trembling Hand said:


> Yeah I had a couple of goes. nothing special.



Thanks  tH / Ed
Here's hoping for another big night up on the Dow.
To close the previous gap down.(27.07.07)
I will be 'Selling' for sure


----------



## Edwood

haven't got my system up at the moment but from memory there is one remaining around low 6,300's - is that the one Bronte?


----------



## Bronte

Edwood said:


> haven't got my system up at the moment but from memory there is one remaining around low 6,300's - is that the one Bronte?



July 26th Low was 6233 Edwood
Dow was down overnight 311.5 pts.
We are into the 'Gap' now 

Daily SPI Chart:


----------



## Edwood

Bronte said:


> We are into the 'Gap' now




ok thanks B


----------



## Bronte

You are welcome Ed
Nice to see the SPI traders that 'Sold the Gap Open'...
Now finally into positive territory.  6110 Low


----------



## professor_frink

Bronte said:


> You are welcome Ed
> Nice to see the SPI traders that 'Sold the Gap Open'...
> Now finally into positive territory.  6110 Low




Surely you didn't hold all of this time waiting for it to come into profit


----------



## Bronte

Bronte said:


> Here's hoping for another big night up on the Dow.
> To close the previous gap down.(27.07.07)
> I will be 'Selling' for sure



A *very* strong close 
My Selling day is tomorrow.


----------



## Bronte

:bounce:*'SPI finished on its High'*
A *very* strong close:


----------



## wayneL

Bronte said:


> A *very* strong close
> My Selling day is tomorrow.



What happened to the jewelery job?


----------



## Bronte

Jewellery is my occasional afternoon hobby Wayne
I just love jewellery 
Why do you ask ?


----------



## wayneL

Bronte said:


> Jewellery is my occasional afternoon hobby Wayne
> I just love jewellery
> Why do you ask ?



Just wondering.


----------



## Bronte

Bronte said:


> Jewellery is my occasional afternoon hobby Wayne
> I just love jewellery
> Why do you ask ?




And of course 'Shopping'


----------



## Edwood

oo-er missis!


----------



## Bronte

Hi Edwood,
Do you have a question with regard to these gaps ?


----------



## wayneL

Bronte said:


> Hi Edwood,
> Do you have a question with regard to these gaps ?



OMG!

I think Ed was just making an observation.


----------



## Bronte

Edwood said:


> *oo-er missis!*



*oo-er missis   *took it as Mrs
Mrs  thats me lol


----------



## Edwood

hey Prof, thanks for the indicator looks handy 

got a trend line to keep an eye on.  fair distance from the MA now


----------



## Edwood

Parked on that trend line overnight - perhaps we'll get Frank D's close above 6,153 today then sell off into next week


----------



## CFD

What indicator?


----------



## porkpie324

According to my hourly trend indicator on the ASX200 it was broken last night at about 0200 hrs. It was from an hourly low of 5515 to a high of 6217 thats a 702 pip movement (12.73%).porkpie


----------



## Bronte

Bronte said:


> *My Selling day is tomorrow.*



Nice one porkpie324 
We have already seen 6095 this morning.


----------



## Bronte

SPI chart so far this morning: Down 90 points


----------



## Sean K

Bronte said:


> SPI chart so far this morning: Down 90 points



Bronte, are ever going to provide any analysis for discussion on this forum, or just commentary on price movements that we can all see for ourselves?


----------



## Bronte

What would you like to know kennas ?
By the beach, Miraflores, Peru
You lucky thing you 
Sounds very nice.


----------



## Sean K

Bronte said:


> What would you like to know kennas ?
> By the beach, Miraflores, Peru
> You lucky thing you
> Sounds very nice.



Not when there's an earthquake everyday at 5 +!!!

Tell me what the SPI will be at 12 please....not what it was 15 minutes ago, but Monday, or Tuesday. 

Thanks in advance!!


----------



## Kauri

kennas said:


> Tell me what the SPI will be at 12 please....not what it was 15 minutes ago, but Monday, or Tuesday.
> 
> Thanks in advance!!




  What!!!!! and spoil a perfect record...  
 Cheers
....Kauri


----------



## porkpie324

I'd settle for someone to tell me when it's going to stop raining on the coast. porkpie


----------



## Bronte

lol porkpie324 / kennas, rather you than I 



Bronte said:


> I will 'Sell' a gap open tomorrow....






Bronte said:


> I will be 'Selling' for sure






Bronte]My Selling day is tomorrow :)[/QUOTE]

This is my way of saying that I believe that the SPI will be heading much lower tomorrow kennas...

[QUOTE=Bronte said:


> Do you have a question with regard to these gaps ?




This is me trying to be helpful and offering to provide some analysis


----------



## Kauri

Not a very convincing count..    ..  but she may be coiling 
 Cheers
...Kauri


----------



## Edwood

nice work Bronte - closed mine too soon unfortunately but happy all the same


----------



## Sean K

Bronte said:


> lol porkpie324 / kennas, rather you than I
> 
> This is my way of saying that I believe that the SPI will be heading much lower tomorrow kennas...
> 
> This is me trying to be helpful and offering to provide some analysis



You're right Bronte. Maybe you're too pithy for me. Maybe a hangover from the old 'bought here, sold there' commentary......Appologies. 

Hopefully you get the 'much lower' right.


----------



## Edwood

Kauri said:


> Not a very convincing count..    ..  but she may be coiling
> Cheers
> ...Kauri




given we've been impulsing up maybe better to count this move as a correction Kauri - looking corrective compared to the last few days anyway imo dyor wtfdik  etc


----------



## Bronte

Edwood said:


> nice work Bronte - closed mine too soon unfortunately but happy all the same




*Thank you Edwood *


----------



## Bronte

kennas said:


> You're right Bronte.......Appologies.
> *Hopefully you get the 'much lower' right.*




*Thank you kennas *

If we have an 'Island Cluster Reversal' watch out below 
http://www.incrediblecharts.com/technical/island_reversal.htm

SPI Daily:


----------



## sails

Bronte said:


> ... This is my way of saying that I believe that the SPI will be heading much lower tomorrow...



...and helpful it was...  I reckoned it must have been a fairly convincing point in time analysis for you to be so confident with that call, so I held off hedging a calendar spread that was starting to look somewhat threatened on the upside.  Thanks Bronte!


----------



## Bronte

You are very welcome sails.
Thanks for the feed back.
We are both so pleased


----------



## Kauri

Still not the best count but effective none the less...
 Cheers
......Kauri


----------



## wayneL

Yowza!!

Gonna be a nasty gap down on the SPI. I have 6038 at NYSE close.


----------



## Bronte

Bronte said:


> If we have an 'Island Cluster Reversal' watch out below
> http://www.incrediblecharts.com/technical/island_reversal.htm



Dow  *Down -280.3 Points*


----------



## Bronte

kennas said:


> Hopefully you get the 'much lower' right.



It is looking very good kennas


----------



## Edwood

hope you had a trailing stop Bronte, currently looking at a gap up of around 110 to 6,200.  Volatility is back alright!


----------



## Edwood

bull flag anyone?


----------



## porkpie324

Could be a triple top forming on the hourly chart, who's going to bet on whether it breaks on the upside?, after last night on the US mkt it must surely be the upside.porkpie


----------



## Edwood

zzzzzzz - whatever is happening its not happening during market hours!!  its such a hussy the SPI, will gladly go wherever US takes it o/night, then tries to appear well behaved during the day..


----------



## Trembling Hand

Edwood said:


> zzzzzzz - whatever is happening its not happening during market hours!!  its such a hussy the SPI, will gladly go wherever US takes it o/night, then tries to appear well behaved during the day..




Yep its very dull. We had a lot of buying yesterday so not to surprised to have a quite one. I'm looking for a bit of a hit up in the arvo. maybe back to the 6200 area if we can break above here, the mid 6170's, until then I'm playing on the HSI.


----------



## Bronte

Edwood said:


> hope you had a trailing stop Bronte, currently looking at a gap up of around 110 to 6,200.  Volatility is back alright!



Sorry I missed this post Edwood.
We love Volatility....trailing stop.....always Ed 
Tomorrow is certainly looking like a Sell at this stage.
Hopefully the Dow is up a little tonight. 'EOM SPI' Selling.


----------



## Kauri

Looking for the 5th leg to get a possible short into the close...
 Cheers
.........Kauri


----------



## DAZT49

kauri,
I would love to know what system you are using .
Do you follow thru on the FTSE as well?
daz


----------



## professor_frink

DAZT49 said:


> kauri,
> I would love to know what system you are using .
> Do you follow thru on the FTSE as well?
> daz




That's elliot wave DAZ


----------



## SevenFX

Kauri said:


> Looking for the 5th leg to get a possible short into the close...




Also confirmed by R2 Pivot at 6252 Kauri.


----------



## Broadway

Kauri said:


> Looking for the 5th leg to get a possible short into the close...
> Cheers
> .........Kauri




Im just gonna shoot out some questions about todays action, maybe someone can answer.

1. Did anyone anticipate this sort of action today? And if so, what hinted that such a trend would occur? Especially breaking the 6200 resistance that was supposed to be with us for a while.

2. Is that manual EW numbering or is a program doing that for you?

3. If it is manual, do you find yourself renumbering in hindsite to make more sense of it? Especially if you change time periods, from say 1 min to 2 minutes as the day gets longer?

4. What trades are you looking for, that is, what do you consider low risk entrys? eg, trying for 3 waves, or fading 5 waves? Or trying to jump on 1 waves if possible?

5. Finally, did anyone else see today as an uptrend, followed by a squeeze/pennant(ending at 1230), followed by a breakout (a damn long one!) and then another sqeeze(at 330), followed by a final breakout into the close? Perhaps those that did trade today could reveal where they entered and why?

Thankyou in advance to anyone who puts forward some answers.


----------



## DAZT49

prof,
thanks.
thought it may have been specifically for Index's
Dont really want to try and learn yet another system, but i am interested.


----------



## professor_frink

DAZT49 said:


> prof,
> thanks.
> thought it may have been specifically for Index's
> Dont really want to try and learn yet another system, but i am interested.




no it can be used pretty well anything. EW is a lot of work-you'd need a couple of years of serious effort to get to the point where you can use it effectively.

Broadway,

I didn't trade today, so comments are all with the benefit of hindsight, but if you were watching the rest of the asian markets and the yen, you would have seen nothing but rallies in the other major markets, and the yen futs falling all morning. When we get crazy swings like we are currently, I find that keeping an eye on the rest of the region pretty important, as it can give some good clues about the direction for the day.


----------



## Edwood

the basics are the key tho - 3's & C's are long & strong.  2's & 4's usually vary

and always best to count 1-2's than complete 5's

hat tip to Nick R for calling the count out of the bottom late last week / early this, I'm just going with that one really but it did set up nicely into the 4


----------



## acouch

slowly rolling down to target..
ac


----------



## Broadway

Yeah, I think it might consolidate/squeeze around 40, maybe an afternoon rally.

Good call.


----------



## acouch

f 39 holds here, we are looking at strong resistance above at 63..once she can get over that..she will be after 90..once again resistance..then over that..the try will be for syco 99..
see how the day pans out..
good trades
ac


----------



## acouch

tested 63 twice now..next tickle up there she should go through.., once over the syco high of 6299..she will be after 6310 resistance there, once above that, then we are after 6360..

ac


----------



## acouch

chart update


----------



## acouch

chart at close..
ac


----------



## Edwood

nice work acouch  - I gather you're using a number of pitchforks there, what else is in there if you don't mind me asking?


----------



## acouch

only pitchforks, and a 34 ema..thats it 

pretty chart 
ac


----------



## Edwood

acouch said:


> only pitchforks, and a 34 ema..thats it
> 
> pretty chart
> ac




ha ha yes its beautiful   I guess you must have a nice relaxing day in front of the screen when looking at those soothing colours all day


----------



## acouch

hahaha yes, just trading 

and as i am female, i like to make sure it is pleasant to look at

haha
ac


----------



## Edwood

yes it is good to have pleasant things to look at when working, from a blokes perspective that is 

anyway I digress, and supposed to be watching the Dax so bye for now


----------



## caribean

You're trading the DAX Edwood?
How are you finding it?


----------



## Edwood

Hi Caribean just using my spreadbet a/c for Dax - fine mostly.  have some overhead resistance around 7,700 based on fibs out of the lows as well as 50% retrace from the highs in this general area.  We may test 7,700 today but not expecting too much really with US holiday


----------



## caribean

Yes Edwood, using futures here..i like it...perhaps no better than any of the US indicies, but better time for us.
I think i've got a little system working on it,(6-15 point micro swings) and have been trying to figure out how to avoid the fake outs using fibonacci/gartley ABCD's to add some structure on my charts.
But it's early days yet....


----------



## Edwood

glad to hear it Caribean - yes the hours are definitely more accommodating than the US!  theres usually an opening gap and I find its a lot less choppy than FTSE.  a few have mentioned eurostox as a good option too for the same hours but I've not looked at it myself

anyway looks as tho we've hit a wall here so might call it a day


----------



## wayneL

Edwood said:


> a few have mentioned eurostox as a good option too for the same hours but I've not looked at it myself
> 
> anyway looks as tho we've hit a wall here so might call it a day




On the futures, ythe DAX is a very large contract with about USD$15,000 margin from memory. STOXX is more in line with the US eminis in size... much more manageable for us private traders.

Don't forget the Eurobund, it a nice contract to trade as well with the same hours.


----------



## caribean

Looked at the Eurostoxx and the Bund,(briefly), i think they're lame ducks by comparison,IMO.
Though they're half the size and easier on the pocket if still unsure....
Catch you latter..
 Wayne, only just noticed your reply after i posted, yes it's a big contract and it has made me hesitate a few times.


----------



## Seaking

wayneL said:


> On the futures, ythe DAX is a very large contract with about USD$15,000 margin from memory. STOXX is more in line with the US eminis in size... much more manageable for us private traders.
> 
> Don't forget the Eurobund, it a nice contract to trade as well with the same hours.




Hi Wayne

What IB data subscriptions would I require to follow the products you mentioned. Not looking to trade atm, just looking for a short list of markets to trial some systems on..


----------



## wayneL

Seaking said:


> Hi Wayne
> 
> What IB data subscriptions would I require to follow the products you mentioned. Not looking to trade atm, just looking for a short list of markets to trial some systems on..



Seaking,

It is the Eurex (DTB ) data. It's a few euro a month, but not too expensive.


----------



## Seaking

Thanks mate..


----------



## acouch

if she get up at 99 again she is through, and wil want to test resistance at 6310..
good trades
ac


----------



## acouch

updated chart

ac


----------



## Edwood

nice calls again acouch!


----------



## Edwood

chart from last week again - I'll take that as achieved given its all sessions spreadbet data, I guess now we'll see if its a 'meaningful' fib or not


----------



## Edwood

has anyone got any more gaps outstanding o/head?  I think we may have gotten close to resolving the last one standing with this move but not sure


----------



## caribean

Anyone know where can i get quality SPI real time data for Metastock , or Amibroker ?


----------



## Edwood

I have IB data linked into Amibroker Caribean


----------



## acouch

updated chart


----------



## Edwood

probably a stupid question but in that chart you have several forks supporting or confirming a move higher in terms of the levels supporting the trend, while this latest one looks very counter-trend.  is that sort of how you look at them?


----------



## acouch

yes, she is range trading atm..she will need a bit of mojo to make the higher price..and as she has been in this range for a while..will give her the mojo..if she moves up from here she is trying for 10 atm..but i wouldnt  want the 97 broken..99 atm..

ac


----------



## Trembling Hand

I hope my boredom with looking at the SPI is an indicator of a break soon. 
:horse:


----------



## Edwood

got another trend line to keep an eye on anyways


----------



## Captain_Chaza

Is anyone keeping a vigilant  eye on those Experienced and Brave Chinese Sailors?

Salute and Gods speed


----------



## Edwood

they look to be doing OK I think Chazza - have you noticed somethign?

re SPI if we get a 1=5 move on the wave count out of the low I have us heading to 6,400.  but worth noting today we hit .786 of 1 so we're in the range to complete.  altho 5 could always extend...


----------



## acouch

eod chart, nice move down into close
ac


----------



## Edwood

SPI gone vertical overnight, could print a new ATH today if rates are held


----------



## Edwood

the last remaining gap according to my data with ATH at 6,428 according to CMC s/bet data


----------



## acouch

morning all,

this chart is very messy, but i just wanted to show you what  else you can do with the ML's.

as on all previous charts the ML's have been within the dominate yellow ML.

what i have done here is to project the red ML on previous chart forward, i have marked in aqua where price meet some resistance on the way up, you can of course mark every x of red/yellow

will put a new set on the next chart from the low of 6242..

great trades
ac


----------



## wayneL

Sorry acouch, I've missed something. What is an ML?


----------



## acouch

new chart set up for the day..we will see how it goes..

as you can see i have put two new sets up of ML's..the new pink one which seems to be containing price very well, and i have put in a downward sloping set in aqua..
all still within the dominate set of yellow ML's, but you can see the aqua if price should take that path is just outside

also i have projected the pink set up once as well..

ac


----------



## acouch

morning wayne,

DR. Andrews ML = Medianline Line with newton's action/reaction theory..

a site below for you to have a look at..and anyone else that is interested in the use of ML's,  some call them  pitchforks

ac

http://www.medianline.com/home.html


----------



## wayneL

acouch said:


> morning wayne,
> 
> DR. Andrews ML = Medianline Line with newton's action/reaction theory..
> 
> a site below for you to have a look at..and anyone else that is interested in the use of ML's,  some call them  pitchforks
> 
> ac
> 
> http://www.medianline.com/home.html



Thanks acouch, will have a look.


----------



## Edwood

yes cheers for that acouch - one of the guys on the desk where I used to work was colour blind... reckon he'd struggle with your charts!


----------



## acouch

haha yes, they can be a bit bright sometimes 

have a great day edwood


----------



## Bronte

acouch said:


> DR. Andrews ML = Medianline Line with newton's action/reaction theory..
> a site below for you to have a look at..and anyone else that is interested in the use of ML's,  some call them  pitchforks
> http://www.medianline.com/home.html




Welcome onboard acouch...please keep up the great work.
Thanks for the link ...very interesting.


----------



## acouch

updated chart..


----------



## Bronte

SPI chart showing yesterdays High 6326
Todays open at 6328 and the 'Gap' 
We have tried twice so far to close.


----------



## Bronte

Bronte said:


> Todays open at 6328 and the 'Gap'
> We have tried twice so far to close.



Gap now closed


----------



## acouch

have to love the gaps bronte :_)

this now looks like it wants  to trend change..
it has followed the ml down to the 09..

updated chart
ac


----------



## Bronte

acouch said:


> have to love the gaps bronte :_)
> this now looks like it wants  to trend change..
> it has followed the ml down to the 09..



R1 6307 Low


----------



## acouch

eod chart


----------



## Edwood

lol!  from one of the ASX traders at www.livecharts.co.uk


----------



## wayneL

Edwood said:


> lol!  from one of the ASX traders at www.livecharts.co.uk



LOL!

So what do you call that analysis method... is there a website?


----------



## Edwood

he he ... not sure but will probably call it something like a pike fade


----------



## acouch

hahaha, very good , i like it


----------



## >Apocalypto<

Edwood said:


> lol!  from one of the ASX traders at www.livecharts.co.uk




that's is fantastic AC,

very very funny!


----------



## Edwood

current count, hourly chart, looking for 6,050. dyor etc


----------



## acouch

looks good elwood..
i have 6074 on my fibtrader..

here is todays chart with support and resistance on it, i have added a upward ML as well..gap fill is at 6233 today..strong resistance on the chart is at 6228..
great trades
ac


----------



## Broadway

Goodmorning Ed and AC.

Seems to be alot of opening gap closures to the 0700 sycom lately. At least the last few days. Yesterday's opening gap closed all the way to the 1630 close of the day before as well.

Got 2 questions.

Ed - so today's early northern movement is a b wave? with a decent c wave to follow this avo?

AC - the blue up pitchfork is interesting to me, when I draw a pitchfork I need 3 points of reference. On yours, I dont understand where the middle ML has started from?

cheers.


----------



## acouch

hi broadway,
it is 50% of range, i use it a lot  
ac


----------



## Bronte

Edwood said:


> lol!  from one of the ASX traders at www.livecharts.co.uk



Love this Edwood 
Dow - 143 overnight
SPI - 60


----------



## Bronte

acouch said:


> it is 50% of range, i use it a lot



We never ignore 50% of the Range 
6366 Yesterdays High
6017 Previous Low
6191.5 50% of the Range
Nice Close of 'Gap' followed


----------



## Edwood

Broadway said:


> Ed - so today's early northern movement is a b wave? with a decent c wave to follow this avo?




hi Broadway - imo the morning rise is probably 4 before we make 5 down into A - well thats what I'd prefer anyway - with A targeting the 6070-ish area then up for a lower high (B) before C takes us down to retest the August low & prints a 2.  in other words given the volatility lately I'm leaning towards giving the moves more room to play out than less.

(added) and am expecting it to take a few days to fill the pattern, not today / tomorrow


----------



## acouch

updated chart..


----------



## acouch

eod chart

ac


----------



## acouch

chart for today, after syco,

support at 6235, targets 6305, over that then 6329..but it could be a quite day today, as the sydney boys are on holiday..

good trades
ac


----------



## acouch

updated chart..dble bot to keep a eye on at 59..

ac


----------



## acouch

eod chart
have a great weekend 
ac


----------



## Edwood

Edwood said:


> hi Broadway - imo the morning rise is probably 4 before we make 5 down into A - well thats what I'd prefer anyway - with A targeting the 6070-ish area




potentially looking at a down week ahead given Friday's US job numbers + the amount of commercial paper due in

good charts again acouch, cheers for those


----------



## acouch

thanks elwood, hope they are of some use to some..
here is todays chart left over from syco..

doubt if it can gap fill at 6254..but if it can get over 6207..it will have a go
at 6233...
have a great day
good trades
ac


----------



## acouch

spi chart after syco..

something to note is that price is above its 34ema..
have a great day
good trades
ac


----------



## Edwood

morning Ms acouch - thats a wide range you're offering there today, are you expecting some volatility?


----------



## acouch

hi edwood,

i put the lower nos in in case she decided  to roll over, but i was more thinking of upside today,
once price was above its 34ema..
gap fill is at 6254..

support today is at 6197..

ac


----------



## Edwood

acouch said:


> i was more thinking of upside today, once price was above its 34ema.. gap fill is at 6254..




gap filled & got your 6268 on the button - nice work acouch!


----------



## acouch

morning all
close of syco chart,

don't know if this will gap fill today.(gap fill 6268)....6280 might hold it..
upper targets on the chart once over 6344..
have a great day
good trades
ac


----------



## Broadway

acouch said:


> morning all
> close of syco chart,
> 
> don't know if this will gap fill today.(gap fill 6268)....6280 might hold it..
> upper targets on the chart once over 6344..
> have a great day
> good trades
> ac




Found support at approx. half gap close. Action stalled, everyone wondering where to now.


----------



## SevenFX

acouch said:


> don't know if this will gap fill today.(gap fill 6268)....




Acouch.

Looks like you were right on the money, as it's retouched 6268 multiple times.. (though just broken though on the 3rd time)

SevenFX


----------



## acouch

hi tek,
needs to get over its 34ema now for longs..
now at 6280
updated chart below.

ac


----------



## acouch

was a bit slack i am afraid, missed the 6212 to left of chart on the cross,
but still she did the job
great trades
ac


----------



## SevenFX

acouch said:


> was a bit slack i am afraid, missed the 6212 to left of chart on the cross,
> but still she did the job
> great trades
> ac




Thanks Acouch..

Yes 6214 was a turning point, and what are the diamond shaped lines all over your charts... Is it Gann Lines or similar plotting time measured over range...????

Just a guess.
SevenFX


----------



## acouch

no they are Andrews pitchfork extended forward.

ac


----------



## acouch

todays chart,

note that price is above its 34ema at 6244.

have a great day
good trades
ac


----------



## Edwood

haven't got a lot to add at the moment as busy with other things but we 're in the middle of the range of this sideways consolidation - put in a higher low following a bounce off .618 retrace from the move out of Sept 10 but no real clues to direction here - have a trend line under the lows from yesterday for shorts, but its pretty minor.  so safest is range trading for the moment I guess, will wait for it to make a move either way

anyone else confused?


----------



## acouch

having trouble getting over the 62 here
ac
chart below


----------



## acouch

dah!! forgot chart

ac


----------



## Trembling Hand

Is the SPI getting more and more boring? Where has all that great volatility gone from last month?


----------



## Edwood

trembling Hand said:


> Is the SPI getting more and more boring? Where has all that great volatility gone from last month?




ha I was just looking at that 5pt range from the last hour thinking the same thing!  only positive is the daily bollies are coming in


----------



## acouch

updated chart
ac


----------



## acouch

todays chart
note gap fill is at 6263
good trades
and have a great day
ac


----------



## Edwood

back to the top of the channel & getting into a tight range - with the higher lows you'd have to think higher from here, likely on the back of US rate-cut expectations, altho I guess the reason is irrelevant.

as an aside I tend not to try & count corrections like this and just go with the fact that its correcting & will break out either way when its ready - maybe lazy but it saves getting tangled in knots trying to put a count on it!


----------



## professor_frink

morning folks

Will be looking for a  short this morning if we get an open around the 6320-25 area.


----------



## Bronte

Good morning fellow SPI traders.

Interesting post professor 
R4 6386
R3 6337
R2 6288
R1 6263
PP 6239

You are selling 6320 - 25 area
Why is this please ?
Stoploss ?


----------



## Trembling Hand

Yens on a bit of a run here. US futs down 0.4% from their close. UK Futs down 0.9%! Talk of a big UK mortgage lender needing emergency funding from the bank of England. Could turn into a nasty day. I will be giving any highs a nudge to the short side on the open.


----------



## Bronte

Bronte said:


> Good morning fellow SPI traders.
> 
> Interesting post professor
> R4 6386
> R3 6337
> R2 6288
> R1 6263
> PP 6239
> 
> You are selling 6320 - 25 area
> Why is this please ?
> Stoploss ?



Sycom closed at 6306
We will be getting a much lower open.
6264/66 is a buy for us


----------



## Edwood

trembling Hand said:


> Yens on a bit of a run here. US futs down 0.4% from their close. UK Futs down 0.9%! Talk of a big UK mortgage lender needing emergency funding from the bank of England. Could turn into a nasty day. I will be giving any highs a nudge to the short side on the open.




Northern Rock, one of the bigger lenders but with a small deposit book - have had to tap into the BoE funding facility & possible takeover target now


----------



## Bronte

6286 Open


----------



## Edwood

Edwood said:


> Northern Rock, one of the bigger lenders but with a small deposit book - have had to tap into the BoE funding facility & possible takeover target now




lol just saw your post on XAO


----------



## Broadway

Hey guys,

I know theres no logic to this, but just about every day for the last 2 weeks, if it opens with a gap to sycom 0700, it closes that gap just about every day, initially.

Weird, huh.


----------



## Edwood

Broadway said:


> Hey guys,
> 
> I know theres no logic to this, but just about every day for the last 2 weeks, if it opens with a gap to sycom 0700, it closes that gap just about every day, initially.
> 
> Weird, huh.




so what're u saying then Broadway, around a 90% fill rate??    wish they were always that good but either way SPI gaps are a nice way to start the day!


----------



## Broadway

Edwood said:


> so what're u saying then Broadway, around a 90% fill rate??    wish they were always that good but either way SPI gaps are a nice way to start the day!




Yea, I just woke up so my grammar sucked, but yes, looks like a high probability trade.

Anyone got a theory about these 3 800+ contract volume spikes this morning?

The first one looked like it pushed the open down, and the other 2 are at peaks, so I guess someone with pockets is hoping it drops south out of this pennant?


----------



## professor_frink

Broadway said:


> Yea, I just woke up so my grammar sucked, but yes, looks like a high probability trade.
> 
> Anyone got a theory about these 3 800+ contract volume spikes this morning?
> 
> The first one looked like it pushed the open down, and the other 2 are at peaks, so I guess someone with pockets is hoping it drops south out of this pennant?




Rollover is next week. There will be quite a few vol spikes like that over the next few trading sessions.


----------



## Bronte

Bronte said:


> 62*64*/66 is a *buy* for us



7 / 8 point stoploss 
If we close the gap today.
Looking for a break lower.


----------



## Bronte

Bronte said:


> 7 / 8 point stoploss
> If we close the gap today.
> Looking for a break lower.



We have just had our break lower 
6275 Double Bottom Low.
For now......


----------



## Edwood

getting tight - decent move coming!


----------



## Bronte

Which way do you think the market will break Edwood?
Big picture as above....
Or after lunch


----------



## Edwood

Bronte said:


> Which way do you think the market will break Edwood?
> Big picture as above....
> Or after lunch




difficult to say Bronte - can think of loads of reasons for it to go either way, so better not to think I think and just play the move when it decides

... but if I was pushed I'd give the trend the benefit of the doubt

is that vague enough to cover me either way?


----------



## Bronte

Vague enough.ty 
Also a very sensible reply.


----------



## onemore

Bront/man
Have you given up on Gann trading?
If not how come you dont post as prolific in the Gann thread as you used to in the SPi threads?
Or are your buy entries in *this* thread really Gann entries?.

Cheers ............. The Ex One Button Pilot.


----------



## Bronte

Bronte said:


> Good morning fellow SPI traders.
> 
> Interesting post professor
> R4 6386
> R3 6337
> R2 6288
> R1 6263
> PP 6239
> 
> You are selling 6320 - 25 area
> Why is this please ? *Gann ?*
> Stoploss ?



We are using Pivot Points as above.
Andrews Pitch Fork (looks very usable...nice work acouch) 
Williams, Elliott and other analysis.

We certainly haven't given up on Gann. 
Just decided that this is not the forum for Gann timeframes etc.
The professor could be using Gann analysis....maybe.


----------



## acouch

spi chart for today..
price is above its 34 at 6284..

have good day, and great trades
ac


----------



## professor_frink

morning folks,

anyone else having trouble with IB this morning? I have no depth on the bid side at all


----------



## professor_frink

Broadway said:


> mine seems ok prof.
> 
> morning trend looks south to me, but not very strong.
> 
> y'all have a great day!!




hmmm, must be something my end then

Bit hard to trade with only 1 side of the book!


----------



## SevenFX

Spot on bounce at 6258 acouch.... nice one.

SevenFX


----------



## Bronte

Hi SevenFX,
Not quite 'spot on'
Chart shows 6259 Low 
Still a very nice call though
'Happy Birthday professor_frink'


----------



## SevenFX

Bronte said:


> Hi SevenFX,
> Not quite 'spot on'
> Chart shows 6259 Low




Think I'll split the difference at 6258.50, and don't think few pts either side could be taken away from acouch.

Which provider are you with bronte, and do you prefer line charts as opposed to candles.

SevenFX


----------



## Bronte

Mostly line charts SevenFX
Easier to hand draw 
MF Global today.


----------



## wayneL

BTW

For those interested in discussing Gann analysis, there is a perfectly good Gann/Spi thread... somewhere.

There are a few using Gann now, so i would would encourage you to open up that thread again.


----------



## wayneL

wayneL said:


> BTW
> 
> For those interested in discussing Gann analysis, there is a perfectly good Gann/Spi thread... somewhere.
> 
> There are a few using Gann now, so i would would encourage you to open up that thread again.



FYI https://www.aussiestockforums.com/forums/showthread.php?t=4875&highlight=spi+gann+techniques

No pressure for anyone to leave this thread, just a good idea to separate the two schools of analysis for peace sake.


----------



## Bronte

Todays SPI 4 min chart showing
Andrews Pitchfork Support


----------



## acouch

spi chart for today
good trades
ac


----------



## Bronte

SPI Pivot point 6279
Resistance R1 6302
Support S1 6243
Support S2 6220
Very similar


----------



## Edwood

not expecting much range today with US call tonight - well, if we do get a wobble there's a good chance we'll end the day close to where we started.  unless UK banking contagion spreads...


----------



## Trembling Hand

Anyone else getting sick of the HUGE and very annoying cross trades that have been going off on the SPI. Makes the charts volume unreadable.


----------



## Edwood

trembling Hand said:


> Anyone else getting sick of the HUGE and very annoying cross trades that have been going off on the SPI. Makes the charts volume unreadable.




rollover?


----------



## Broadway

Edwood said:


> rollover?




Would someone please explain to me how these huge trades occur? Because there doesnt seem like thousands of contracts on my market depth table to pick up.

I'm guessing these large trades are institutional, but is there another 'institutional' market out there where these volumes are able to be picked up, and then that volume just happens to record on the 'public' volume charts?

thx.


----------



## Edwood

not directly relevant but gives some background to what happens - I'm not certain its today tho, no positions & just lurking today.  no trading for me until the US news is out

http://www.dacharts.com/faq/futures-rollover.htm

todays volume

http://www.asx.com.au/sfe/volume_summary.htm


----------



## sails

Broadway said:


> Would someone please explain to me how these huge trades occur? Because there doesnt seem like thousands of contracts on my market depth table to pick up.
> 
> I'm guessing these large trades are institutional, but is there another 'institutional' market out there where these volumes are able to be picked up, and then that volume just happens to record on the 'public' volume charts?
> 
> thx.




Looks like most of this excess volume is being rolled into Dec SPI.  Scroll down this link to AP and you will see similar volume for Dec as Sep.  http://www.asx.com.au/sfe/futures_summary.htm


----------



## SevenFX

Wow... Quiet day on the market... 6164

Any idea what caused this selloff....???

Bought in at 6171 but bit of a gamble perhaps.. 

Thanks
SevenFX


----------



## Broadway

sails said:


> Looks like most of this excess volume is being rolled into Dec SPI.  Scroll down this link to AP and you will see similar volume for Dec as Sep.  http://www.asx.com.au/sfe/futures_summary.htm




Yep, I agree, it's mostly rollover volume.

But what confuses me is how an institution can purchase thousands of contracts and barely make a blip on the price chart.

For every long there must be a short, so I just wonder who is on the other side of these large contract deals, which happen in an instant and dont move the price, not even for 1 tick?

There doesnt look like there is thousands of contracts on offer on the bid or ask side of my market depth table.

But thankyou for those links, ill look into them.

cheers.


----------



## sails

Broadway said:


> Yep, I agree, it's mostly rollover volume.
> 
> But what confuses me is how an institution can purchase thousands of contracts and barely make a blip on the price chart.
> 
> For every long there must be a short, so I just wonder who is on the other side of these large contract deals, which happen in an instant and dont move the price, not even for 1 tick?
> 
> There doesnt look like there is thousands of contracts on offer on the bid or ask side of my market depth table.
> 
> But thankyou for those links, ill look into them.
> 
> cheers.




I don't know all the mechanics behind the "rolling" process either, but just always assumed that if they are selling the same quantity in Sep as they are buying in Dec, this in itself provides the long and short for each contract and would prevent price from moving significantly.

However, there must be a system in place which allows this rolling process to happen, so hopefully, someone else can answer that question.


----------



## Edwood

Edwood said:


> not expecting much range today with US call tonight - well, if we do get a wobble there's a good chance we'll end the day close to where we started.  unless UK banking contagion spreads...




well we got some range!  but no surprises that we're back at the open for the news


----------



## Trembling Hand

SevenFX said:


> Wow... Quiet day on the market... 6164
> 
> Any idea what caused this selloff....???
> 
> Bought in at 6171 but bit of a gamble perhaps..
> 
> Thanks
> SevenFX





How was that Futures sell Bot yesterday? I'm going to have to find a name for him as he is a pretty regular player a day or two out from option expiry. Normally he is switched on a day before expiry but I guess the smart team with the huge pockets knew today wouldn't be a great day for a sell program. Why do I think it was a BOT. There is no way the ask side can be stuffed that fast on every up tick, as soon as we ticked down the orders would change and then on any hit up instantly the Ask side was stuffed with orders. Just way to fast for it to be a manual player. And it did what ever it was trying to do as we lost 90 points from top to low. Is it there to take out options or was it there to get net long equities as its hitting the Futs for todays games. I'm not sure but it certainly got its fill yesterday


----------



## Bronte

Wow ! Dow up 336 points overnight 
Very nice Opening gap expected 
Pivot point 6209
R1 6253
R2 6303
R3 6397
R4 6491
Weekly Pivot point 6257
R1 6359
R2 6436


----------



## chops_a_must

Bronte said:


> Wow ! Dow up 336 points overnight
> Very nice Opening gap expected
> Pivot point 6209
> R1 6253
> R2 6303
> R3 6397
> R4 6491
> Weekly Pivot point 6257
> R1 6359
> R2 6436



Are they pivots from last nights action, or yesterdays? Because they look pretty wide to me.


----------



## Bronte

Good morning chops_a_must. 
Yesterdays and last weeks OHLC
September 2007 Day contract


----------



## Bronte

Bronte said:


> Wow ! Dow up 336 points overnight
> Very nice Opening gap expected
> Pivot point 6209
> R1 6253
> R2 6303
> R3 6397
> R4 6491
> Weekly Pivot point 6257
> *R1 6359*
> R2 6436



Weekly R1 was the open and held pretty strong


----------



## Bronte

Bronte said:


> Weekly R1 was the open and held pretty strong



Until almost the close 
R3 was 6397
6398 High
Selling 
3 min chart:


----------



## Bronte

One month away from the 20 year October 1987 anniversary.
Certainly very interesting times 
Dow up again overnight +76.2
Another gap open expected.
Todays pivot point is a low 6369
S1 6339
R1 6417
R2 6446
R3 6525


----------



## Bronte

6423 Open 
Gap has just closed.


----------



## Frank D

Bronte,

Why would you even look at September SPI contracts today?

Damn thing is finished and locked up by 10.20am

Frank


----------



## Bronte

Frank D said:


> Bronte,
> 
> Why would you even look at September SPI contracts today?
> 
> Damn thing is finished and locked up by 10.20am
> 
> Frank




Hi Frank,
Short term traders.
Selling into 'Gaps'.


----------



## Bronte

September SPI Chart
Showing gap close:


----------



## Broadway

She's stuck at 6436, with 2600 contracts at bid and 2000 contracts at ask..

One day I hope for 1000 contracts to rollover with!


----------



## Bronte

Frank D said:


> Bronte,
> 
> Why would you even look at September SPI contracts today?
> 
> Damn thing is finished and locked up by 10.20am
> 
> Frank




Hi Frank,
Short term traders.
Selling into 'Gaps'.


----------



## SevenFX

Frank D said:


> Damn thing is finished and locked up by 10.20am
> 
> Frank




Could you explain please, not in a trade atm, but assumed their was a prob with provider (IG)when it was taken offline few mins ago..

Is rollover end of calander month, and what happens to sept contract until then...???? no volume...????

Thanks


----------



## Broadway

The spi rolls over on the third thursday of march, june, sept and dec.

The december contract is now being traded, and rolling south as people take profits today.


----------



## SevenFX

Broadway said:


> The spi rolls over on the third thursday of march, june, sept and dec.
> 
> The december contract is now being traded, and rolling south as people take profits today.




Thanks Broadway.

Is profit taking expected at end of each qtr, and does a open sept contract automatically rollover into dec if not closed out...

New to this, hence maybe silly questions...


----------



## Frank D

SevenFX,

you should be switching into December futures the day before expiry.

god knows why anyone would be trading September futures when there is 20 minutes left in trading on the last day, regardless of how short term you are, and what gaps are in the market.

There is a perfectly good December contract (which is the SPOT contract) to do the exact same thing.

I'm not sure how CFD's work if left holding the September contract. Probably cut the trade at end of todays trading so you would be neutral position.

Frank


----------



## Broadway

SevenFX said:


> Thanks Broadway.
> 
> Is profit taking expected at end of each qtr, and does a open sept contract automatically rollover into dec if not closed out...
> 
> New to this, hence maybe silly questions...




No, I dont think they automatically rollover. Not for the general public anyway.

They are more likely taking some profits in equities due to the recent rally from the fed rate decrease. Hence dragging the spi down. Im not sure if the trend will go all day, or whether there will be an afternoon rally. I imagine people in europe and the US might take profits tonight as well.

As frank said, if you are holding the sept contract when it finishes trading, it is more likely your broker will force you to exit on close of market, than make you cough up cash as it expires.

I think this is how it works, but im learning as well.


----------



## SevenFX

Thanks Frank.

Clears things up... appreciated.

p.s those larger timeframes (10-15m+)& longer exists (20pts+) not to mention tighter stops are helping heaps....but one eye still watches the tic chart...

No need for so much medication anymore...  and I even go for lunch and maybe take another bite aft 2...

SevenFX


----------



## macca

As I am another SPI apprentice all this is an education to me. 

Thanks to all the old hands for taking the time to answer our iggorunt kwestions 

I have noticed that the Dec SPI contract is now below the closing price for the SEP contract.

So, in theory if I had been long Sep and Short Dec, I would have had an arb opportunity, Is that right ??

Does anyone have the old daily charts for the change over in June, could I have gone long and short when June contract changed into Sep and closed when they met ?  

I have read that as we age it is good to learn new things to keep the grey matter working, thereby slowing the aging process, getting my head around some of this stuff should make me 21 again


----------



## Bronte

Hi macca,
Welcome to the 'Trading the SPI' thread,
I wish it did work out that way


----------



## Bronte

Bronte said:


> Short term traders.
> Selling into 'Gaps'.




Interestingly this AM in the September 2007 contract" 
We had a 48 point true range, 10,163 volume.
All in a very short 30 mins of trade 

I can remember not so long ago we struggled to get:
True range days of 32 points and in excess of 
10,000 volume in a *full *trading day.


----------



## Trembling Hand

Bronte said:


> Interestingly this AM in the September 2007 contract"
> We had a 48 point true range, 10,163 volume.
> All in a very short 30 mins of trade
> 
> I can remember not so long ago we struggled to get:
> True range days of 32 points and in excess of
> 10,000 volume in a *full *trading day.




Why wouldn't you just trade the new contract. Why trade something that is only trading for 30 minutes. When your trade idea could of been right but needed a couple more minutes to pan out. Exactly same movement in each contract but there is no time limit on the new one.

Seems like a you are unnesasary restricting you trade?


----------



## Bronte

Hi trembling Hand,that is very true.
The gap *still* has not closed on the December contract.
We usually change with volume.
Sept High yesterday 6398
Dec Low 6412

Also we were up a little late this morning and 
hadn't changed over our platforms. lol 
07.50 AM start Perth remember :sleeping:


----------



## Bronte

Bronte said:


> One month away from the 20 year October 1987 anniversary.
> Certainly very interesting times
> Dow up again overnight +76.2
> Another gap open expected.
> Todays pivot point is a low 6369
> S1 6339
> R1 6417
> R2 6446
> R3 6525



We had also worked out all our pivot points on the Sept contract.


----------



## Bronte

As the SPI Sept'07 officially expired at 12.00 noon yesterday we will now rolll over & work out the SPI Dec'07 Pivot points:


----------



## Bronte

R2 6522
R1 6488
*PP 6450*
S1 6416
S2 6378
S3 6306
Good trading


----------



## SevenFX

Bronte said:


> work out the SPI Dec'07 Pivot points:




Hi Bronte. 

I know you hand draw you own charts : so do you calculate your own pivots as well...???? or is that a function of your charts...??? either way they differ from mine...????

Which should I be using...???? And can you explain why...???
(H+L+C)/3 (Currently using)
(H+L+C+today 0)/4 (Is today 0 the pivot point)
(H+L+today 0)/3

Also have you ever see the market hit the S3, S4 or R3 R4 pivots which I don't have setup...but wondered if I should...????

Thanks
SevenFX


----------



## Bronte

Good morning SevenFX,
Yes we have hand drawn very large SPI chart for twelve years now :
I will answer your questions later.....Good luck 
The 6450 PP area is looking very interesting.


----------



## Bronte

Bronte said:


> Hi trembling Hand,that is very true.
> The gap *still* has not closed on the December contract.
> We usually change with volume.
> Sept High yesterday 6398
> Dec Low 6412



Watch that gap


----------



## Bronte

Bronte said:


> Watch that gap



The Opening gap has now closed.
Opened at a very low 6401


----------



## Bronte

SevenFX said:


> Hi Bronte.
> 
> I know you hand draw you own charts : so do you calculate your own pivots as well...???? or is that a function of your charts...??? either way they differ from mine...????
> 
> Which should I be using...???? And can you explain why...???
> (H+L+C)/3 (Currently using)
> (H+L+C+today 0)/4 (Is today 0 the pivot point)
> (H+L+today 0)/3
> 
> Also have you ever see the market hit the S3, S4 or R3 R4 pivots which I don't have setup...but wondered if I should...????
> _*Yes & yes you should *_
> 
> Thanks
> SevenFX



Try this link out SevenFX:
http://www.mypivots.com/Education/tools/pivot-calculator/


----------



## Bronte

Bronte said:


> Try this link out SevenFX:
> http://www.mypivots.com/Education/tools/pivot-calculator/



This will be my last Pivot Point post due to the link above.
You should get these numbers for Monday:
Good luck 
R3 6504
R2 6463
R1 6442
*PP 6422*
S1 6401
S2 6381
S3 6340


----------



## acouch

Spi chart, Dec contract..

good trades
and have a great day
ac


----------



## acouch

spi eod chart for you to checkout

ac


----------



## acouch

today's chart..
something to note...monday is the 1st oct..45cd's from the low of 5535..

have a great day, and good trades
ac


----------



## Edwood

morning acouch - 45 being 50% of 90?


----------



## acouch

yes Edwood..

cd's = calender days

good trades 
ac


----------



## Edwood

ta acouch - I sort of see the significance with 89 being a fib number so 50% of that might have some relevance but whats the significance of 90? (if you don't mind me asking)


----------



## acouch

Gann Wheel..

45/90/180/360..
i think i have a wheel here somewhere. if i can find it i will see if i can post it here for you, i use to have it on my desk top, but new computer, somethings got a little lost 
ac


----------



## Sean K

Isn't this a *NON GANN *thread!


----------



## Edwood

OK maybe stick it on the Gann SPI thread acouch?  I haven't ever used that thread myself but if you search you should find it, I think it has a couple of posts on it


----------



## onemore

Don't Mention The *G* word


----------



## wayneL

Did someone mention Gann?


----------



## Edwood

lol!  not sure what the fuss is about tbh, its not as if ac rants on about it and while I've got my suspicions about those 'pitchfork' charts they're unambiguous & there's nothing "woolley" about them.  just my opinion & , not poking a stick or anything


----------



## wayneL

Edwood said:


> lol!  not sure what the fuss is about tbh, its not as if ac rants on about it and while I've got my suspicions about those 'pitchfork' charts they're unambiguous & there's nothing "woolley" about them.  just my opinion & , not poking a stick or anything




Hi Ed,

Not a reflection on acouch whatsoever. Her posts are clear, informative and helpful. She has been willing to answer questions on her analysis style... exactly the sort of poster we want here.

However, as some here may know, we had troubles between Gannists and non-Gannists in the past, so it was decided to run two separate threads. As certain posters are definitely not permitted to to use Gann analysis in this thread, it is only fair that it extends to everybody as per the opening comments in this thread. 

Now, it may seem a bit harsh to jump on the mere mention of a Gann wheel, but we have to draw a line otherwise some of the old problems may creep back into the thread.

It is not a reflection on Gann analysis either, it is just to maintain the peace. If all were as open and helpful as acouch and others, it would never have been necessary. 

Hope that makes sense.


----------



## Edwood

wayneL said:


> Hi Ed,
> 
> Not a reflection on acouch whatsoever. Her posts are clear, informative and helpful. She has been willing to answer questions on her analysis style... exactly the sort of poster we want here.
> 
> However, as some here may know, we had troubles between Gannists and non-Gannists in the past, so it was decided to run two separate threads. As certain posters are definitely not permitted to to use Gann analysis in this thread, it is only fair that it extends to everybody as per the opening comments in this thread.
> 
> Now, it may seem a bit harsh to jump on the mere mention of a Gann wheel, but we have to draw a line otherwise some of the old problems may creep back into the thread.
> 
> It is not a reflection on Gann analysis either, it is just to maintain the peace. If all were as open and helpful as acouch and others, it would never have been necessary.
> 
> Hope that makes sense.




yes perfect sense Wayne, peace is good, 'healthy' & constructive debate is good, charlatinism is not good.

keem em coming acouch, just DONT mention the G word


----------



## acouch

haha, ok

one never knows all the rules on a new site 

i did find the unmentionable..so if i can find the right forum, i will post it there ,if i can, as not being a computer guru 
great trades
ac

todays chart is pretty much the same as yesterdays, support though is at 6575


----------



## sails

acouch said:


> haha, ok
> 
> one never knows all the rules on a new site
> 
> i did find the unmentionable..so if i can find the right forum, i will post it there ,if i can, as not being a computer guru
> great trades
> ac
> 
> todays chart is pretty much the same as yesterdays, support though is at 6575




Here is the link to it, acouch.  https://www.aussiestockforums.com/forums/showthread.php?t=4875
Some interesting reading in there for those interested in time analysis...


----------



## UraniumLover

Bronte said:


> This will be my last Pivot Point post due to the link above.
> You should get these numbers for Monday:
> Good luck
> R3 6504
> R2 6463
> R1 6442
> *PP 6422*
> S1 6401
> S2 6381
> S3 6340




Hi Brontie,
thanks for the link.  I'm new to Pivot trading but find it very interesting .
i tried it for the very first time on  Oct asx 200 futures and to my amazment there was resistance and support near levels defined by pivot points. I have no idea how it derives it but thanks for the web site.
My plan is to use stop losses and move them between r1 -r2 etc 
to capture profits on strong trends. 
Not sure if this is the best way to use Pivot points. Any insight would be much appreciated .


----------



## onemore

Try This
Draw G lines,Murrey Math lines, Floor traders Pivot lines, Pivot High/Low lines, Previous days H/L lines, Andrew Pitchfork lines, trend lines, linear Regression lines, ect.

Draw enough lines on a chart and you will find sup/res some where.

To easy


----------



## acouch

Morning all,
chart for the day, but could be a quite one, as most states
are having a public holiday today,so this chart might go into tomorrow,we will see.. i wont be posting tomorrow..power is going off at 8.30am-4.30pm,
easy to see there are no traders working for the electric company 
have a great day
and good trades
ac


----------



## acouch

for those traders that are interested in the works of the Medianline, the guru Tim Morge is giving a free seminar on October the 22nd. link below..
a great genuine fellow 

ac

https://interactivebrokers.webex.co...interactivebrokers&siteurl=interactivebrokers

below also is of his free site, another demo of how they work, he is a very generous man for the time and knowledge he has shared to all for free 
ac

http://www.medianline.com/


----------



## Broadway

onemore said:


> Try This
> Draw G lines,Murrey Math lines, Floor traders Pivot lines, Pivot High/Low lines, Previous days H/L lines, Andrew Pitchfork lines, trend lines, linear Regression lines, ect.
> 
> Draw enough lines on a chart and you will find sup/res some where.
> 
> To easy




Sometimes this is true, especially on my charts...

But ac is fairly close.

Today's spi lod (6607) and hod (6645) so far are within +/- 3 of her chart. (posted an hour before open this morning)

I know I can use any help I can get.


----------



## professor_frink

morning folks,
looking to get short this morning on an open above 6715

Edit: scratch that thought- won't get it


----------



## SevenFX

Morning Professor.

It seems range bound ATM, from this apprentices eyes, so do you think it will still close the gap still...???

Thanks
SevenFX


----------



## professor_frink

SevenFX said:


> Morning Professor.
> 
> It seems range bound ATM, from this apprentices eyes, so do you think it will still close the gap still...???
> 
> Thanks
> SevenFX




Couldn't say with any conviction now tekmann. It's not uncommon for the SPI to trade in a narrow range after such a large gap up. Generally on days like this, if I don't get what I'm after pretty well right off the open I'll go and look elsewhere for trades, which is what I'll be doing today.

Cheers


----------



## chops_a_must

professor_frink said:


> Couldn't say with any conviction now tekmann. It's not uncommon for the SPI to trade in a narrow range after such a large gap up. Generally on days like this, if I don't get what I'm after pretty well right off the open I'll go and look elsewhere for trades, which is what I'll be doing today.
> 
> Cheers



Tekky,

I agree with frink here. I'm only learning like you, but you might benefit from looking at range analysis. I only know a bit about it, and don't know any source material on it, but from what I've read, if a market gaps 1.5x of the previous day's range, it has a less than 50% chance of filling the gap on that day. With less chance as we go along, obviously, to 3x the range, at which point the gap fills are outliers and outside of the 3rd standard deviation. I can't verify this myself, but have only read it. So chances are it will trend or trade range bound on days like this.

Hope this helps somewhat.

Cheers.


----------



## Trembling Hand

chops_a_must said:


> Tekky,
> 
> I agree with frink here. I'm only learning like you, but you might benefit from looking at range analysis. I only know a bit about it, and don't know any source material on it, but from what I've read, if a market gaps 1.5x of the previous day's range, it has a less than 50% chance of filling the gap on that day. With less chance as we go along, obviously, to 3x the range, at which point the gap fills are outliers and outside of the 3rd standard deviation. I can't verify this myself, but have only read it. So chances are it will trend or trade range bound on days like this.
> 
> Hope this helps somewhat.
> 
> Cheers.




The trouble with this it may not fill the gap but that doesn't mean that the best opportunities are on the Long side. It is probably better to try think about the current action in terms of that last couple of days trading with the stats on gap of this percentage for a basis of a trade.

A 1.2% gap up after 3 days down will be played differently than a 1.2% gap up after two weeks of strong gains.


----------



## SevenFX

Thanks Guys.

Will google something on that on close, though the range seems to have broken soon after we speak....Have taken a small position...


----------



## Trembling Hand

SevenFX said:


> Thanks Guys.
> 
> Will google something on that on close, though the range seems to have broken soon after we speak....Have taken a small position...




I would be interested in hearing from others but I don't wait for confirmation of a broken range to enter a trade. If I'm thinking of trading short for a break of the morning range I will look for entries on the early highs and take profits as it moves outside that range just as people are entering on confirmation of a break. I find that my stops are much smaller and if it looks to be reversing back into the range I still have a bit of profit to take. Just like is happening now. It may roll over again but stiff. I have made 4 trades taken my profit and now waiting for Honkers to open.


----------



## SevenFX

SevenFX said:


> though the range seems to have broken soon after we speak....




Only to have entered a Bigger range perhaps...??? IMO

SevenFX


----------



## Broadway

trembling Hand said:


> I would be interested in hearing from others but I don't wait for confirmation of a broken range to enter a trade. If I'm thinking of trading short for a break of the morning range I will look for entries on the early highs and take profits as it moves outside that range just as people are entering on confirmation of a break. I find that my stops are much smaller and if it looks to be reversing back into the range I still have a bit of profit to take. Just like is happening now. It may roll over again but stiff. I have made 4 trades taken my profit and now waiting for Honkers to open.




A discussion on people's intraday trading styles would be really good. Hopefully we can help each other a bit.

I was wondering how you made 60 round trips on the HSI the other day TH, and finally I realised you were probably range trading. So does that mean you enter every time it pauses at the edge of it's range channel? The problem I get when I try this style is knowing where the range boundaries are, especially on the early moves just after open or after a strong move. I guess people might say you are picking small tops and bottoms, which goes against typical advice. But I guess after a while you can get it just right. Do you enter before the pause at S/R, or at the pause or just as it shows evidence is has turned and formed it's high or low?

Currently I'm just trading breakouts from consolidation patterns, such as pennants and flags, but you can get false signals. The other problem is waiting for the retracement to make your entry, this way often means you miss half the move. At least it's moving in the right direction.

Trading the moves between pivot lines seems reasonable, although slow at times. Sometimes it depends if the index likes the pivot lines or not, like the Z (ftse 100) bounces off them all the time.

Waiting for trends requires patience. If the average index only trends 10-15% of the time, it can be a real waiting game. Plus the questions arise, such as what defines a trend start? Or a trend finish? And how do you stay on a trend for the maximum move (which is the same question as defining it's end).

So what defines a trend start? Is it as simple as a moving average crossover with volume? Or do people have more complex indicators to decide (CCI, RSI etc). And how do people get off them? Do you use momentum loss? Or wait for a double top or bottom? Or volume based, let the smart people with money tell you when to exit?

And trading a trend can just be considered as trading a range that is progressing slightly uphill or downhill. Instead of taking a long, then short, then long, you switch to taking only longs, for example, if the trend is up. 

There must be alot of people scalping the big indices such as the HSI, DAX, Z and the USA indices. The volume and number of trades each minute indicates there are. And some of them must be winning long term. 

But I guess trading methods (including details of entries and exits) are personal and intellectual property, which may risk failure if revealed to too many.

I wonder if anyone has come across some good books about intraday minute by minute scalping of indexes?


----------



## acouch

Evening,
for scalping you need smaller time frames, each fut/index seem to have there own time frame which suits,,
eg: spi works well with a 50 volume chart, a 10 tick chart..and a 1 range chart..if you want to swing,you can take entry of the smaller time frame then you would look at the bigger time frames,to manage trade, depends on what sort of trader you wish to become.if you can get the smaller time frame in sync with the bigger one you would find that it would be a pretty good move..

scalping for the euro works well on a 50 vol chart, then later when usa comes in, you would move it to a bigger time frame..say 250 volume..this is for scalping the euro..but a lot is trial and error to find the time frame that you and the fut, suit....
nothing is meant to be easy, but i hope this is of some help to some of you..
have a great evening 
ac


----------



## acouch

example of the two time frame's
it is a little hard with the range charts to show the time correctly, but on the 1 range chart entry was before the 10 range chart for a scalp ,but once you entered, and you moved on to the 10 range chart, then you could have held for the bigger move,it took all the noise out of the trade..
ac


----------



## acouch

oops didn't do the snap very well will try and remove it, and re do ..sorry about that..
ac


----------



## acouch

one more example with a tick chart, i had to squash the charts up so you could see the comparison of scalp/swing on different time frames, hope that these give some of you an idea between the different time frame plays 
take care
ac


----------



## acouch

today's road map.
great trades
ac


----------



## >Apocalypto<

acouch,

Great charts and great posts.

you have a very unquie style that really adds to this thread.

Well done and keep it up!


----------



## Trembling Hand

Broadway said:


> I was wondering how you made 60 round trips on the HSI the other day TH, and finally I realised you were probably range trading. So does that mean you enter every time it pauses at the edge of it's range channel? The problem I get when I try this style is knowing where the range boundaries are, especially on the early moves just after open or after a strong move. I guess people might say you are picking small tops and bottoms, *which goes against typical advice*. But I guess after a while you can get it just right. Do you enter before the pause at S/R, or at the pause or just as it shows evidence is has turned and formed it's high or low?
> 
> Currently I'm just trading breakouts from consolidation patterns, such as pennants and flags, but you can get false signals. The other problem is waiting for the retirement to make your entry, this way often means you miss half the move. At least it's moving in the right direction.
> 
> I wonder if anyone has come across some good books about intraday minute by minute scalping of indexes?




Broadway, I had a long explanation of how I trade ready to post and than my computer crashed. So now the quick one. Basically I do what you are told not to do. I try and catch falling knifes and stand in front of freight trains all day long. I use the DOM and 1 & 5 Minute candle charts. I'm basically looking for climatic volume. When the big money is giving the desperate all they want. Pretty much revision to mean stuff. I do trade breakouts but funnily I'm never that comfortable doing it. Happier picking tops and bottoms. Some times I get smashed but I always have very tight stops and many times will re-enter the same trade after being stopped out. With breakouts I'm never that comfortable with the stops, many times it rolls back into the range then takes off again. For me it makes it hard to have a tight stop.

I'm off on a month long holiday on Friday but when I come back I will post some videos using Ninja traders replay function to show my trading style. 

As for the question about books on scalping. I have not seen anything that is worth reading about scalping. In fact I'm pretty sure what I do you read that its shouldn't be done this way.


----------



## Broadway

trembling Hand said:


> Broadway, I had a long explanation of how I trade ready to post and than my computer crashed. So now the quick one. Basically I do what you are told not to do. I try and catch falling knifes and stand in front of freight trains all day long. I use the DOM and 1 & 5 Minute candle charts. I'm basically looking for climatic volume. When the big money is giving the desperate all they want. Pretty much revision to mean stuff. I do trade breakouts but funnily I'm never that comfortable doing it. Happier picking tops and bottoms. Some times I get smashed but I always have very tight stops and many times will re-enter the same trade after being stopped out. With breakouts I'm never that comfortable with the stops, many times it rolls back into the range then takes off again. For me it makes it hard to have a tight stop.
> 
> I'm off on a month long holiday on Friday but when I come back I will post some videos using Ninja traders replay function to show my trading style.
> 
> As for the question about books on scalping. I have not seen anything that is worth reading about scalping. In fact I'm pretty sure what I do you read that its shouldn't be done this way.




Thanks TH and ac. Alot of great stuff to think about and try.

TH, you hit the nail on the head with picking tops and bottoms. Textbooks etc say not to do it, but it seems to me that is what the deep pockets are doing quite often. Large volume spikes seem to be a self-fulfilling prophecy as well i.e. as soon as people see a spike or two, they think this may be a good spot for a reversal and so it reverses, not because of an S/R level, but because someone with money thought it was a good spot to reverse. Those videos will be great to see when you get back.

Nice charts ac. I think I read on another thread in ASF about someone else who used CCI quite a bit. They explained how you could trade from +-100 to -+100, or from 0 to +-100. But how does the stochastic help you? Also good advice about going to longer time/tick/range/vol frames to stay in a trend.


----------



## Trembling Hand

Broadway said:


> TH, you hit the nail on the head with picking tops and bottoms. Textbooks etc say not to do it, but it seems to me that is what the deep pockets are doing quite often. Large volume spikes seem to be a self-fulfilling prophecy as well i.e. as soon as people see a spike or two, they think this may be a good spot for a reversal and so it reverses, not because of an S/R level, but because someone with money thought it was a good spot to reverse. Those videos will be great to see when you get back.




I haven't done much today but the SPI has had a couple of the set ups that I trade. Have a look at the Volume spikes at the edge of the Bol Bands. This is the kind of think I fade. If its with an extreme on the RSI or some divergence I will get more aggressive. Its pretty simple setups really. Could probably put it all of my trading "plan" on the back of an envelope.


----------



## acouch

braodway,
stoch is just another indicator, that i use..8.3.3 on intraday chart..on eod i use 14.3.3 they both just give me a heads up..

ac
updated road map..


----------



## acouch

today's road map 
have a great day
ac


----------



## Edwood

morning cheers for the charts TH & acouch, good stuff.  this is what I have been doing lately on a 1 min chart, concentrating on spotting lower highs & higher lows for turns and looking for confirmation with MACD and RSI but not using MACD as they are in the link.  Also using 5min and 1hr charts for longer term trend - as well as looking at daily just to get a longer term view.

I like your Renko chart acouch, looks a lot cleaner than my candles

http://forexta.blogspot.com/2006/12/forex-1-2-3-method.html


----------



## onemore

Hi acouch 
What's your preference for scalping, chart wise... Renko, Range bars or tick?

Cheers onemore


----------



## acouch

morning onemore,

for scalping i like to use a two min and  one range chart, with renko,heikin-ashi candle combo
the two min is very similar to the 50 volume chart..

if you look at those renko charts..the heikin-ashi is super imposed over the renko box, to give it a very smooth look..

i assume it can be done with most software, i use sierra charts for those posted here, i also have the fibtrader software as well, but it cant be done with that..

hope this is of some help
ac
gap at 62 was filled this morning..we now have a gap above at 96..


----------



## acouch

morning all,
today's road map..
gap at 96  was filled on psycho..now to fill it today..

great trades
ac


----------



## CFD

Edwood said:


> ~~
> I like your Renko chart acouch,




What Renko charts?


----------



## Edwood

CFD said:


> What Renko charts?




see posts 1484 & 1486


----------



## CFD

Edwood said:


> see posts 1484 & 1486




Thanks Edwood, thought it would have to be something obvious! Don't think I've seen them look that way before. I like to use Renko as it takes all the noise out of the chart, tricky bit is you can get stopped out by the noise.


----------



## acouch

road map for today
great trades
ac


----------



## acouch

updated road map..

ac


----------



## acouch

good morning all,
today's road map
good trades 
ac


----------



## acouch

good morning all,
once she tried that 38 for the fourth time there was no stopping her..
weakening it every test..
something to take note of for today, is that it is 55 cd's from the low of the 16th Auigust..so could very easily put the high in today and roll over, but we will see as usual, but good to be aware of that 
road map for today
have a great day, and good trades
ac


----------



## Edwood

thanks for pointing out 55 days acouch

I see on the hourly we've broken out of an ascending triangle and holding above so far, onwards & upwards, 7000 here we come!


----------



## acouch

morning edwood, morning all,
yes 55cd's not to be overlooked,
today's road map
good trades, and have a great day
ac


----------



## Edwood

Edwood said:


> thanks for pointing out 55 days acouch
> 
> I see on the hourly we've broken out of an ascending triangle and holding above so far, onwards & upwards, 7000 here we come!




triangle target about hit now


----------



## Edwood

now off 101 from the o/night high on the back of US drop - they must've been waiting for the ASX triangle to resolve


----------



## acouch

nice chart edwood, wd 
apologies for yesterday's chart, as i was a little bias :-(
thinking that we would gap fill at 6738..as the upside nos where there also target for oct. is 7003.and we are only halfway through and she is moving too fast..
will put up/downside targets on in the future..
have a great day
and good trades
ac


----------



## Edwood

cheers acouch, didn't trade it nearly as well as I could've but things turned out fine in the end.  I stuck something on the SPI-G thread that might interest you

we could be in for a lumpy Friday!


----------



## acouch

Morning all,

Mondays' road map..
have a great weekend
ac


----------



## acouch

Morning all,
spi road map for today..

have a great day, and good trades
ac


----------



## acouch

Morning all,
today's road map

have a great day, and good trades
ac


----------



## Boggo

acouch
Just wondering how you actually trade the SPI, daily, intraday etc ?

This is my 3min esignal/MTPredictor chart... hit and run technique.

Mike


----------



## acouch

hi Mike,

i trade it intra day.i go long/short..doesnt worry me, just trade the chart..atm i am long off lod at 11..as time moved along..11 was on the road map...looking for 72 once over the 61 atm..
ac


----------



## Boggo

ac, Thanks for that

Also, have you found a timeframe that has worked well.
eg. I find the 3 min on the Z (ftse) and 5 min YM (djia) work well but I cant seem to corner the spi.


Cheers
Mike


----------



## acouch

yes..for the spi..i like a 50vol, but of course sometimes not much volume on our girl  so a 2min also does well..also i have up a 10tic, and a 1 range chart..all these work well, and i use a combo of renko/heiken-ashi candles..will post a couple of charts for you in a min so you can see..i also have one 2min chart up with only heinken candles on,so i can trail my stops, and not leave it all on the table  as the range chart doesnt give the right high/lows on price..

ac


----------



## acouch

some charts for you intra day , smaller time frames
ac


----------



## acouch

try again


----------



## acouch

here is a update of our road map for today as well,
ac


----------



## CFD

Nice stuff acouch. Do you set the renko to open/close, hi/low, hi/low/close?


----------



## acouch

hi cfd..
i set it at 1 renko box for the spi, but i put the heikin-ashi also on the same window..this is the dax chart ..renko set at .01 on a 5 range chart..
ac

hope it is ok to put the dax up here


----------



## acouch

Good morning,
road map for today
have a great day, and good trades
ac


----------



## acouch

Good Morning,

today's road map, i am going to HK this evening for 5 days,
so this will be the last road map till i come home.
have a great week, and good trades
ac


----------



## professor_frink

acouch said:


> Good Morning,
> 
> today's road map, i am going to HK this evening for 5 days,
> so this will be the last road map till i come home.
> have a great week, and good trades
> ac




afternoon acouch,

hope you have a great trip

Been an interesting week for me trading wise.

Made pretty well every mistake known to the trading world this week. Rules were broken, mistakes were made nearly every day, good trades missed a plenty due to other commitments, and still managed to scratch out a profit for the week. Gotta love the volatility in this market


----------



## professor_frink

just a friendly reminder that we have the CPI number coming out at 11:30 this morning. Could make for some interesting trading


----------



## SevenFX

professor_frink said:


> just a friendly reminder that we have the CPI number coming out at 11:30 this morning. Could make for some interesting trading




Morning Professor, or Anyone Else

Could you please explain how the SPI/XAO reacts to these figures 

Everyone for more information on CPI Figures, check out link below
http://www.abs.gov.au/AUSSTATS/abs@.nsf/Lookup/6401.0Main+Features1Jun 2007?OpenDocument

Thanks
SevenFX


----------



## professor_frink

SevenFX said:


> Morning Professor, or Anyone Else
> 
> Could you please explain how the SPI/XAO reacts to these figures
> 
> Everyone for more information on CPI Figures, check out link below
> http://www.abs.gov.au/AUSSTATS/abs@.nsf/Lookup/6401.0Main+Features1Jun 2007?OpenDocument
> 
> Thanks
> SevenFX




It's about the only news announcement that I've seen that can really move this market SevenFX. If it's higher than expected and catches people by surprise, there will possibly be a bit of a selloff. But you can never really tell with news. The only thing that would surprise me is if we didn't have some kind of volatile move after the announcement.

My gameplan for it is this- if I get set early in the day and have a bit of open profit to play with on a trade, I'll hold through the announcement, and close my position out in full if it starts moving against me, if it moves in the direction of my trade, I'll take partials on any initial spike and trail the remainder.

If we have a choppy opening and I haven't caught a decent trade leading up to the announcement, then I'll just step aside and come back after lunch.


----------



## rub92me

Is the SNFE down at the moment?? I'm not seeing anything trading on IB.


----------



## SevenFX

professor_frink said:


> If we have a choppy opening and I haven't caught a decent trade leading up to the announcement, then I'll just step aside and come back after lunch.




Hmmm... at this stage of the morning certainly seems choppy, with no clear direction on 10m chart from what I can see.

Are we expecting good figures on CPI... or flatish no change...????

SevenFX


----------



## professor_frink

SevenFX said:


> Hmmm... at this stage of the morning certainly seems choppy, with no clear direction on 10m chart from what I can see.
> 
> Are we expecting good figures on CPI... or flatish no change...????
> 
> SevenFX




I'm not really sure what is expected. It wouldn't help me trade it- I'd need to get  the data before everyone else, and know what they were all looking for in the numbers to be able to front run them. That isn't going to happen, so I'll stick to trading the price action

Have had broker and data issues this morning, so won't be trading it. I'll come back for the afternoon session and see if there is anything going on then.


----------



## Boggo

And here is an example of not keeping your nerve and bailing out too soon


----------



## SevenFX

Boggo said:


> And here is an example of not keeping your nerve and bailing out too soon




Hi Boggo,

I'm guessing you got out at 6710 which would have been a nice profit, but the chart doesn't show further shorting from 3.30pm-4.30pm.

Also MTpredicator seems to flag those buy triggers well from the charts you've posted.... do you get many that fail

Keep them charts coming, preferably the day b4.... LOL :

EDIT: P.s You don have to upload you pics on photobucket, as asf allows uploads in your post.

Thanks
SevenFX


----------



## Boggo

Out at 6707, happy with that but it could have been more (we have all said that after the event).

MTPred did'nt actually flag this, I just watched the action and expected a possible turn down with the CPI announcement, ie. it was either going to increase the upward rate or turn down and the hesitation was a heads up.

Because I had just gone it "alone" just on the action I was probably a bit jumpy on any sign of an upturn.

I havent taken this trade on the FTSE but I will post the chart anyway as an exercise in posting directly, much too wide between entry and stop levels.

Cheers
Mike


----------



## Boggo

That uploaded OK.
Sorry SevenFX, I did'nt answer all your questions in my previous post.

MTPred gives you alot of heads ups and a lot of them do fail but if you stick to the rules and get out you cut the losses and save yourself for a $600 an hour day like today.

I have had many trades where I have jumped ship prior to the stop being hit only to see it turn and run without me.
The chart above of the FTSE however is one where I would apply my own stop at 6521 or there abouts.

Lets see how this FTSE pans out.

Mike


----------



## SevenFX

Boggo said:


> That uploaded OK.
> Sorry SevenFX, I did'nt answer all your questions in my previous post.
> 
> MTPred gives you alot of heads ups and a lot of them do fail but if you stick to the rules and get out you cut the losses and save yourself for a $600 an hour day like today.
> 
> I have had many trades where I have jumped ship prior to the stop being hit only to see it turn and run without me.
> The chart above of the FTSE however is one where I would apply my own stop at 6521 or there abouts.
> 
> Lets see how this FTSE pans out.
> 
> Mike




Thanks Mike.

Yes.. There's no sure thing about trading, but hofully keeping losses small and letting profits run with good init r2r ratios will swing the pendilium in our favour.

I've nearly always let stops get hit, as you hit hit on head, not leaving enough room for the candle to breath, ends up having to find new entry and potential loss of runner, but as tempted as have been stop moving my stops either (big no no )

Cheers
SevenFX


----------



## Boggo

That went to plan SevenFX, straight (almost) into the MTPred DP box.
Pity I was not on it, I probably would have got spooked on the 18:15 or on the 19:00 down bars though.


----------



## SevenFX

Boggo said:


> I probably would have got spooked on the 18:15 or on the 19:00 down bars though.




Nice paper trade Mike. good confirmation on this.

I agree the 18:15-1900 mark would have tested anyone's nerve...

Perhaps shift the stop up to entry or entry+ some while giving the price action room to move n groove, so you break even or as good as lock away small profit whichever way she goes.

EDIT: So just confirming those stop/entry & r2r triggers on your charts are inserted manually and not automatically inserted...Is that correct.???

Also do you know what MTP looks for to flag this as a potential trade with good r2r potential.


SevenFX


----------



## Boggo

SevenFX

The bottom bar with DP on it is generated automatically. The DP is actually the green box and that is calculated from the previous swing low (pivot).

Basically, pattern down(pivot), correction up and then continuation down (ABC correction).

MTPred alerts you to the action at the DP, click on analysis, click on the blue (potential) reversal bar and the opposite direction DP (based on a previous pivot point) is plotted as are the entry and stop. You pre-program these based on your account size, R/R, what each tick is and how much each tick is worth.

The trend filter bars in the window on bottom of the chart showed that the down trend was losing momentum.

If you go back to my post of the SPI you will see that the trend filter also indicated waning momentum near the top of the run up.

That (confusing) explanation is a major over simplification. The interesting thing is that you start to see potential trades develope prior to the software highlighting it.

Go to the emini thread on this forum to see some excellent realtime posts.
http://www.mtptrader.com/

Mike


----------



## Edwood

interesting stuff Boggo, thanks for sharing.  Out of interest do you have the esignal p&f plugin?  would be interesting to see how your target boxes compare to p&f targets as well as any auto-generated p&f R/R figures,  cheers


----------



## Edwood

coiling up for the US rate call....


----------



## acouch

Morning all,
spi road map for the day..
resistance at 6788..over that look for higher nos..
have a great day, and good trades
ac


----------



## acouch

good morning all,
todays road map,
a little different today, you will have to read the retraces backwords..
good trades
and have a great day
ac


----------



## acouch

good morning all,
today's road map
have a great day, and good trades
ac


----------



## acouch

Morning all,
today's road map
spi showed some strength yesterday, when it didnt close all the gap at 6732..lod 6737.so close, but yet so far 
have a great day, and good trades
ac


----------



## acouch

jusr re looked at the chart, as i did it before market closed this morning, i have moved the support nos up
ac


----------



## acouch

Morning all,
today's road map,
gap fill is at 6822, doubt if it can fill it today, but will have a go.
the 6812 is above, as i can't go into tomorrow  for the x of the ML.
ands place a circle.
have a great day
and good trades
ac


----------



## acouch

Good morning all,
todays road map
have a great day, and good trades
ac


----------



## acouch

a different look,

 ML's on a 24hr range chart..

have a great evening
ac


----------



## professor_frink

acouch said:


> a different look,
> 
> ML's on a 24hr range chart..
> 
> have a great evening
> ac




afternoon acouch

What's a 24hr range chart


----------



## acouch

evening prof frink,

the chart runs 24hr, not just a daily, and the bars are of a range, so each bar has to print eg: 6,12,18 etc range before a new bar is printed..so it depends on how you set the ranges up on your chart..on scalping on sc i use a 1 range bar..you can use what no that you like for your bar to print before it moves on.
fd did a lot of work on range bars, and made me, and quite a few others aware of them i am sure 

about range bars..

Nicolellis Range Bars were conceived in 1995 by a Brazilian broker and trader - Vicente M. Nicolellis Jr.

During 13 years running a trading desk in Sao Paulo, where local markets tend to be volatile, he wrestled with the problem of how to handle this volatility and its variability. Finally he concluded that the most promising approach would be to eliminate time from the equation, and just concentrate on price.
After all it is price that you trade (rather than time, unless it is an options market).
Essentially this reverts to the early days of Technical Analysis, and the use of Point an Figure Charts which just record price changes.
By using a constant range, ex. 10, and opening a new bar once that range is covered, one can also apply modern concepts of indicators, which are bar based.
In 1996 the concept was computerized, which meant that many more markets could be studied.
Experience in the last 8 years has shown that Nicolellis Range Bars are particularly good at focusing on and clarifying movement.
The way in which a long meandering, horizontal "congestion" is condensed into a bar or two, concentrates attention on the essential underlying price movement while eliminating unnecessary "clutter" and "noise".
This also makes the use of Trendlines easier. 
hope this is of some help..
ac


----------



## professor_frink

Ok gotcha

I was a little confused by the way you worded it. I thought you might have been talking about range bars that incorporated some form of time analysis in there somewhere


----------



## acouch

not good at explaining, could never be a teacher 
but talking about time, the ML's go into time..
and you can use them on all things
ac


----------



## acouch

good morning all,
hope you picked a winner at the Melbourne cup  yesterday 
today's road map
have a great day, and good trades to you all
ac


----------



## professor_frink

acouch said:


> not good at explaining, could never be a teacher
> but talking about time, the ML's go into time..
> and you can use them on all things
> ac




It's all good ac. Don't think I'd make much of a teacher myself



acouch said:


> good morning all,
> hope you picked a winner at the Melbourne cup  yesterday
> today's road map
> have a great day, and good trades to you all
> ac




Had my eye on the 80-82 area myself this morning, and considering the gap we had, was pretty confident of it being tested pretty quickly after the open. Oh well, it went far enough down for stops to come into BE for me, so no real harm done


----------



## acouch

morning all, prof frink,
once she broke the 82 she was gone, she tried hard enough to hold up.
today's road map, plus another chart to look at..
big gap left above, doubt that it will be filled today..
have a great day, and good trades.
ac

trying to load the two charts together..will see if not overloaded, if so will re do


----------



## professor_frink

acouch said:


> morning all, prof frink,
> once she broke the 82 she was gone, she tried hard enough to hold up.
> today's road map, plus another chart to look at..
> big gap left above, doubt that it will be filled today..
> have a great day, and good trades.
> ac
> 
> trying to load the two charts together..will see if not overloaded, if so will re do




morning acouch, 

was very surprising how well we held up during the day session yesterday considering what was going on with the nikkei and ES.

Won't be looking for a gap fill either today, though do expect a decent rally in the morning session, especially if there is a gap down from the sycom close.

The second chart you posted- what are the thin dotted lines in between the median lines?


----------



## Trembling Hand

professor_frink said:


> morning acouch,
> 
> was very surprising how well we held up during the day session yesterday considering what was going on with the nikkei and ES.
> 
> Won't be looking for a gap fill either today, though do expect a decent rally in the morning session, especially if there is a gap down from the sycom close.




Will be a tough day. The ES is still in free fall. US dollar getting a good beating against the Yen but looking strong against all else. Will it continue to run and knock the way to hot commodities (oil, gold etc) and really mess up our market over the next couple of days.

Or will all the Pavlov traders start salivating at lower prices for an entry to the Santa rally? Our close could be a good tell as to the "players" thinking for the silly season.


----------



## professor_frink

trembling Hand said:


> Will be a tough day. The ES is still in free fall. US dollar getting a good beating against the Yen but looking strong against all else. Will it continue to run and knock the way to hot commodities (oil, gold etc) and really mess up our market over the next couple of days.
> 
> Or will all the Pavlov traders start salivating at lower prices for an entry to the Santa rally? Our close could be a good tell as to the "players" thinking for the silly season.




welcome back trembling hand

Hope you had a good holiday!


----------



## Trembling Hand

professor_frink said:


> welcome back trembling hand
> 
> Hope you had a good holiday!




Thanks. It’s nice to be back. Although I think I have contracted SARS or Bird Flue so I may not be around for long :flush:


----------



## Edwood

trembling Hand said:


> Thanks. It’s nice to be back. Although I think I have contracted SARS or Bird Flue so I may not be around for long :flush:




oo-er doesn't sound pleasant - got my antivirus on so hopefully won't catch anything 

hope you had a good break - looks like you timed it right to get back into it


----------



## acouch

afternoon prof frink

they are set up on the Medianline in fib trader..they are also a ratio of .382..50..618 within the lines, and out 
ac


----------



## acouch

Good morning all,
road map for today
have a great day, and good trades
ac


----------



## Edwood

morning acouch, crazy night last night - not sure I can face today 

here are my 'maps' from last night






took profit way too early - never mind.  markets are going nuts!


----------



## acouch

hi edwood
your 3month/15 min chart shows it all, it went up like a chimney, and we cant have a one sided chimney, so had to come down to make it whole 
have a great day
ac


----------



## Edwood

a chimney - I like it 

you have a good day too acouch

Ed


----------



## acouch

Monday's road map,
as i might not have time on Monday to post it
have a great weekend and take care
ac


----------



## acouch

good morning all,
today's road map, something to take note of,
tomorrow is 90cd's of the low of august 16th,so would be 
looking for a low to come in tomorrow but you have to give it +/- a day
and then a  reversal should be on the cards.
but like always we will see what she offers up 
have a great day, and good trades
ac


----------



## Trembling Hand

Is it just that I have been out of the market for near on 6 weeks or is our little SPI getting a bit more jumpy. To me it seems to be a bit more movement from Tick to Tick?

Hope it not me losing the plot but I'm sure there is more action than when I left on a second by second level? Anyone noticed or am I going :screwy:


----------



## professor_frink

trembling Hand said:


> Is it just that I have been out of the market for near on 6 weeks or is our little SPI getting a bit more jumpy. To me it seems to be a bit more movement from Tick to Tick?
> 
> Hope it not me losing the plot but I'm sure there is more action than when I left on a second by second level? Anyone noticed or am I going :screwy:




Don't worry mate your not losing your mind(or we both are!)

Don't think it has changed drastically since you went away, but it is getting more and more frisky as time goes on.

Surprised we haven't really joined in the selloff today- most of the other markets are going down quite nicely. Wonder if we can hold out for the rest of the session


----------



## acouch

good morning all,
today's road map..
also is a daily chart so you can see the kiss of yesterdays low with the high of 12.07.07 of 6452
have a great day and good trades
ac


----------



## acouch

good morning all
today's road map.
have a great day, and good trades
ac


----------



## Edwood

cheers acouch - out of interest, what's the significant of the little yellow 7150 on your previous chart?

here's what I'm looking at - s/b chart so prices don't match SPI but action is pretty much the same.  triangle is about resolved, but given the US sell off into the close wouldn't be surprised to see the gap below filled today


----------



## acouch

hi edwood.
the 7150 is the top of the ML and price will try for that.
action / reaction, as you could also see on that chart how the ML also held price at 6452 and then bounced..it is a amazing tool, and so simple to use..it has around a 80% hit rate, so it is worth the effort to learn it well 
have a great day
ac


----------



## Edwood

ah ha - thanks for explaining.  Great I'll keep an eye on it!

probably a stoopid question but if the median line doesn't hold I guess we're going to the lower level?


----------



## acouch

yes, you would anticipate so..

by the way, the chart you posted looks like a inverted one sided chimney 
ac


----------



## Edwood

lol - your chimney's worked again acouch!   maybe a downward one should be called a mine shaft...

was reading on t'internet earlier about some poor souls in China whose elevator dropped 100m - not a nice way to go...


----------



## acouch

yes edwood, having trouble getting over this 39/42 mark lots of resistance here, but once over look for upper targets..i think she will try for the 76 eod..but we will see, we are but human's 

yes..i cant stand small spaces, and as you say those poior chinese souls, there equipment also would be not be  state of the ark either :-(
ac


----------



## acouch

today's road map
have a great day, and good traddes
ac


----------



## macca

Hi folks,

I am still dabbling with this SPI business, just like everything it is always harder than it looks 

I noticed that some use pivot points and S1 etc, like in Forex, could someone tell me should I be calculating pivot points using a 24 hour chart of the SPI or just the live market in OZ from the day before.

If it is the 24 hour chart does the day start at 9.50am and end at 8.00am ?

Also Acouch, when calculating your lines do you use the 24 hour chart ?

If some of the experienced people could answer I and others shall learn something 

thanks in advance

Macca


----------



## acouch

hi macca,ill reply tomorrow..friends here and a bad neck 
ac


----------



## acouch

good morning all,
today's road map.
macca all my charts posted here run on 24hrs, except the metastock
chart which is eod, and i use that to go forward, and have a look at the 
bigger picture.
as these charts posted are sierra charts, and the computer they are on runs 24/7
hope this is of some help.
good trade. and have a great day
ac


----------



## professor_frink

macca said:


> Hi folks,
> 
> I am still dabbling with this SPI business, just like everything it is always harder than it looks
> 
> I noticed that some use pivot points and S1 etc, like in Forex, could someone tell me should I be calculating pivot points using a 24 hour chart of the SPI or just the live market in OZ from the day before.
> 
> If it is the 24 hour chart does the day start at 9.50am and end at 8.00am ?
> 
> Also Acouch, when calculating your lines do you use the 24 hour chart ?
> 
> If some of the experienced people could answer I and others shall learn something
> 
> thanks in advance
> 
> Macca




Hi macca,

I haven't found much of a difference with the different pivots- one day a 24 hour chart will work better than the day session, and the next it can be the reverse. Because I can't find much of an advantage in doing it this way, the charts that have pivots on them are strictly day session for me, as it's the more traditional way of doing it.

If you are going to calculate them over a 24 hour period, I'd do the calculation based on the times you described above, and not based on a calendar day.


----------



## macca

OK, thanks for your comments Acouch and the Prof


----------



## acouch

good morning all
today's road map
have a great day, and good trades
ac


----------



## acouch

good morning all
road map for today
have a great day, and good trades
ac


----------



## acouch

good morning all
road map for today
have a great day, and good trades
ac


----------



## acouch

good morning all
spi road map for monday
have a great weekend
ac
p.s. a bit early, spi not quite closed


----------



## acouch

good morning all
today's road map
have a great day, and good trades
ac


----------



## acouch

good morning all
today's road map
have a great day, and good trades
ac


----------



## acouch

good morning all
today's road map
have a great day, and good trades
ac


----------



## acouch

good morning all
today's road map
have a great day, and good trades
ac


----------



## julius

Hi all,

wayneL : I think I read earlier that you'v used Fib Trader & now using Amibroker ?

I'm using trialing FT at the moment - much prefer the flexibility of Ami but FT does have some great features. One is the range bars, I'v tried getting these to work in Ami but they just don't plot the same ? Got any suggestions ?


----------



## acouch

Good morning all
Spi road map for Monday
have a great weekend
ac


----------



## acouch

good morning all
today's road map
have a great day, and good trades
ac


----------



## acouch

Good morning all
today's road map
have a great day, and good trades
ac


----------



## nat

morning acouch ,thanx for continually putting up these charts ,it is amazing how the numbers can be significent points in a day ,

Ive got my own method of trading the spi ,,more ig markets cfd till more expierience,,and follow some other peoples methods for the day and it seems there can be many ways to trade but they all at times bring up the same numbers which i find gives the number more significents to be a magnet to draw price to it. Nathan


----------



## acouch

most welcome Nat, glad that the road map is of some help.
yes when there is a confluence of nos it pulls more weight that is for sure.
as you are just starting out, always remember, she (spi) is always right, as she is a living thing, so if wrong get out 
have a great day.
ps wouldnt be surprised that she tries for 47 upside, but like always we
will see line in the sand today is 25..


----------



## nat

hi ,you got your 6547,bit late but got there in the end,interesting day ,Nathan


----------



## acouch

good morning all
today's road map
have a great day, and good trades
ac


----------



## nat

Hi there anyone,just a question for whoever ,,,ive downloaded a little program from broker one ,its volume on price chart for the spi and was looking at it today along with charts to c if helped any ,and i must say i dont think it did ,in hindsite could c things that lined up with charts but not really at the time ,also with the little package comes depth  ,"At Best" which shows break up of depth ,and coarse of sales ,so is there anyone out there that uses this type of thing and can it help any or found a hinderence .

im just using ig charts  at diff time frames and finding its actually not to bad with out vol but at certain times i wonder when price stalls whats going on and thats where vol could help i think ,Nathan


----------



## Timmy

nat said:


> Hi there anyone,just a question for whoever ,,,ive downloaded a little program from broker one ,its volume on price chart for the spi and was looking at it today along with charts to c if helped any ,and i must say i dont think it did ,in hindsite could c things that lined up with charts but not really at the time ,also with the little package comes depth  ,"At Best" which shows break up of depth ,and coarse of sales ,so is there anyone out there that uses this type of thing and can it help any or found a hinderence .
> 
> im just using ig charts  at diff time frames and finding its actually not to bad with out vol but at certain times i wonder when price stalls whats going on and thats where vol could help i think ,Nathan




Nat - have you seen this thread?  It shows some of the different ways price and volume is presented which may make analysis more effective (or not!).

https://www.aussiestockforums.com/forums/showthread.php?t=8741


----------



## julius

acouch,

would you be able to provide some details about your methods? Your graphs looks fascinating but I don't really know what I'm looking at :


----------



## acouch

Julius,
it is better that i refer you to the master after Dr.Andrews.
at Tim Morge site you will find the knowledge that you seek,
as i might teach you bad habits, as i have been using them for close on 7 years now, when Tim first started his group,he is a very generous man, that has shared his knowledge and work
i am willing to answer questions, but better that you understand the Medianlines yourself, as i am not a good teacher i am afraid :-(

as they work on all things, and have a 80% strike rate, once you know how to place them correctly.
i hope that this is of some help to you..Tim's site below..
ac 

http://www.medianline.com/

from there you can go onto his geometry site..

http://www.marketgeometry.com/

he offers all for free,


----------



## nat

Timmy said:


> Nat - have you seen this thread?  It shows some of the different ways price and volume is presented which may make analysis more effective (or not!).
> 
> https://www.aussiestockforums.com/forums/showthread.php?t=8741




Hi timmy ,yes have been following this thread and some interesting ideas and methods ,but its not like what ive got at moment althou maybe similar outcomes .


----------



## acouch

good morning all
spi road map for today
have a great day and good trades
ac


----------



## chops_a_must

Looks like there is potential for quite a nice opening gap fill this morning. Unless there is some funny business...


----------



## macca

Hi Chops,

Nope, the market doesn't believe the USA rally


----------



## julius

thanks acouch,

always like having something new to read !


----------



## acouch

good morning all
spi road map for monday
have a great weekend
ac


----------



## acouch

good morning all
spi road map for today
have a great day, and good trades
ac


----------



## acouch

Good morning all
today's road map
have a great day, and good trades
ac


----------



## acouch

good morning all
today's road map
have a great day, and good trades
ac


----------



## acouch

good morning all
road map for today
have a great day, and good trades
ac


----------



## acouch

good morning all
first time yesterday that price left the road map
during a day session, often will leave on sycom,as it is 
a 24 hr chart, but not an a day, hope you all got some of it.
Monday's road map for you all
have a great weekend
ac


----------



## Edwood

looks as tho we've gone off the map again today acouch


----------



## chops_a_must

Edwood said:


> looks as tho we've gone off the map again today acouch




Grinding, grinding, grinding lower. Looks like it is trying to reverse a bit now... but geez, it's given up a lot of points today. 

S3 at 6294 isn't out of the question either.


----------



## wayneL

Flippin' 'ell!

I remember when 50 points range was a huuuuuuge move on the SPI and 400 on the Dow wasn't out of the ordinary.

My how things change.


----------



## Edwood

its all you options geezers pushing it around!


----------



## acouch

yes she sure has been a busy girl edwood that is for sure..but if short, you had a good ride, and would have held it down further according to your chart 
ac


----------



## acouch

Good morning all, 
this will be the last road map till the new year,
as contract rolls over on Thursday,and i have a fair bit to do for Xmas.
so i wish you all a very Merry Xmas, and a Safe and Healthy New Year.
take care
ac


----------



## Trembling Hand

Thanks acouch for all the charts. Have a great Xmas.  

:chimney:


----------



## Edwood

gee what a lovely rise!  missed getting on the short it was moving too quickly but this has made up for it.


----------



## chops_a_must

Edwood said:


> gee what a lovely rise!  missed getting on the short it was moving too quickly but this has made up for it.




Are you looking at the rest of that gap now edwood? Looks promising.


----------



## Edwood

chops_a_must said:


> Are you looking at the rest of that gap now edwood? Looks promising.




hey Chops - yes it does - there's a few more higher up too, perhaps we've seen the bottom for this move, alls we need is our friends in the US to take a run higher tonight


----------



## dovetree

Yes you may get a run higher as a precursor to a 10% correction in the dow, from these levels. The only arguement against a correction soon, is that it is pretty obvious.

anyone else care to comment on a move from here to nearly 12000 on the ym


----------



## Edwood

dovetree said:


> Yes you may get a run higher as a precursor to a 10% correction in the dow, from these levels. The only arguement against a correction soon, is that it is pretty obvious.
> 
> anyone else care to comment on a move from here to nearly 12000 on the ym




here's a p&f view dovetree - who knows if 12k is feasible, don't really care to be honest so long as we keep getting good ranges


----------



## Edwood

no sign of santa so far this year   maybe we haven't been good enough...  am assuming we'll a decent move one way or the other once we exit from this consolidation


----------



## wayneL

Edwood said:


> no sign of santa so far this year   maybe we haven't been good enough...  am assuming we'll a decent move one way or the other once we exit from this consolidation



Maybe Santa had his credit card cancelled.


----------



## chops_a_must

wayneL said:


> Maybe Santa had his credit card cancelled.




Or was shopping at centro.


----------



## Edwood

pool old Santa, its a shame he has to get caught up in our western excesses.  I bet a few credit cards are being thrashed in his name again this year...

reminds me - we should spare a thought for those less fortunate at this time of year

http://youtube.com/watch?v=rvTFKpIaQhM


----------



## acouch

good morning all
road map for for today
hoping this chart will settle down as it is a new contract, but i have been watching it and it can be out 3/4 tics 
have a great day and good trades
ac


----------



## acouch

good morning all,
today's road map
have a great day, and good trades
ac


----------



## acouch

good morning all,
Monday's road map
have a great weekend
ac


----------



## acouch

good morning all
today's road map
have a great day, and good trades
ac


----------



## chops_a_must

At a crucial stage here.

Fighting on yesterday's lows and it doesn't look good at this stage. Rejection of the pivot, rejection of the lows, hard not to be trading in one direction here...


----------



## Edwood

and just managed to hold above the Dec lows - for the moment


----------



## acouch

good morning all
today's road map
have a great day, and good trades
ac


----------



## nat

hi  all ,thanx once agin ac for the charts ,i just noticed there is 2, 6051 s,i assume the second one is meant to be 6001 ,Nathan


----------



## acouch

sorry about that nat, i was nursing my daughter's babe when doing it 
no should read 6004 
have a great day
ac


----------



## professor_frink

Hi folks,

was wondering if anyone can help me out- I neglected to keep my charts up to date leading up to Christmas, and don't have any data for the december SPI contract from the 14/12 until expiry.

Is there anyone out there kind enough to post up the day session OHLC +V for the above time period??

TIA


----------



## bestrooster

OPEN HIGH LOW  CLOSE  VOLUME
Fri 14-Dec-07	6600	6616	6468	6502	 42,981 
Mon 17-Dec-07	6428	6436	6262	6290	 74,703 
Tue 18-Dec-07	6217	6258	6102	6208	 148,656 
Wed 19-Dec-07	6234	6269	6189	6213	 57,831 
Thu 20-Dec-07	6205	6249	6157	6240	11526
Fri 21-Dec-07	6240	6330	6218	6324	 18,007 
Mon 24-Dec-07	6356	6389	6295	6343	 9,232 
Thu 27-Dec-07	6364	6393	6360	6379	 8,268 
Fri 28-Dec-07	6295	6375	6295	6373	8259
Mon 31-Dec-07	6366	6383	6335	6348	 11,455 

Cheers


----------



## professor_frink

cheers bestrooster, much appreciated!

And welcome to ASF


----------



## acouch

good morning all
todays road map
have a great day, and good trades
ac


----------



## acouch

good morning all
today's road map
have a great day and good trades
ac


----------



## chops_a_must

CNP looking like it's going to be a huge drag again on the index again.

Am looking for that gap fill, in on the R1.

And looking to short property trusts again today on the back of that...


----------



## Edwood

gee she's out of the gate today, thought we might've seen a bit more strength than this


----------



## chops_a_must

Edwood said:


> gee she's out of the gate today, thought we might've seen a bit more strength than this




Gee... I got a good fill didn't I?

Anyway, I'm off to work. Don't know why anymore though... 

Have a good one... looks somewhat like a rounded bottom to me...


----------



## Edwood

thats good then I quite like rounded bottoms 

yeah it is starting to look like it could do a run higher has tested this general area a few times now


----------



## Edwood

Edwood said:


> yeah it is starting to look like it could do a run higher has tested this general area a few times now




spoke too soon... but potentially setting up a higher low now.  overall a nice impulsive move down


----------



## acouch

well she is falling in a hole..i think she will test aug lows,..but i was reviewing posted chart to the forum i am on, i thought i had posted here as well, but does'nt look like it,,it is a daily chart..which i do all my work on..and i have strong resistance at 5980..atm on syco lon is at 5982..but this chart was posted around the 17th dec..but done well before...with ML's again of course..thought you might be interested in looking at it..
have a great evening..
ac


----------



## rub92me

Falling through that 5980 resistance now; US Index Futures down. Could be an interesting Monday if the US has a down day today.


----------



## acouch

yes a sic puppy that is for sure..but seems to running ahead of time..interesting times ahead
ac


----------



## acouch

Good morning all
road map for Monday
have a great weekend
ac


----------



## korrupt_1

Oh dear God what a wipeout, the SPI looks like it's digging a hole to China... What will Monday bring? I'll take a dead-cat-bounce anyday.


----------



## acouch

bounce might come in on Thursday,17th Jan with a price of 5710..
we will see how it goes.
have a great day, and good trades
ac


----------



## chops_a_must

Now if BHP would kindly roll over AS WELL, we could get some real fireworks.

It's broken down out of that triangle by the looks, so, should be fun.


----------



## acouch

good morning all
todayay's road map
have a great day, and good trades
ac


----------



## acouch

good morning all
road map for today
have a great day and good trades
ac


----------



## acouch

acouch said:


> bounce might come in on Thursday,17th Jan with a price of 5710..
> we will see how it goes.
> have a great day, and good trades
> ac





on re looking at my daily chart..i did the Pi of the open not of the high..so the no we are looking for is 5762..not 5710..brain overload sometimes..
sorry about that..
have a great day
ac


----------



## Edwood

found support for the moment - could go lower but I've taken a small lonng looking for a bouncette from here using the spreadbet a/c


----------



## Edwood

5min chart shows a higher low, supporting the bounce idea


----------



## acouch

Good morning all
today's road map
have a great day, and good trades
ac

well today is the 17th..we will see soon enough if we get a reversal..


----------



## acouch

good morning all
todays road map
have a great day, and good trades
ac

well she tried to rally, but just couldnt get over that 55..only managed the 54..was not a good omen, a lower dble top..bad news for longs..


----------



## chops_a_must

We could see another exhaustion onto the August lows here, with a sharp rally perhaps logical. First half of the day will be interesting.


----------



## acouch

good morning,
Monday's road map
have a great weekend
ac


----------



## chops_a_must

Oofff... look at those futures go after the close. It's almost sickening.

I guess this sums it up:


----------



## rub92me

Looks like we have a short term bottom forming on my 5 min charts. Not too game to go long though


----------



## acouch

good morning all
road map for today, i couldn't extend chart
further as market closed early
have a great day, and good trades
ac


----------



## Edwood

doh! long SPI went to move my stop up above entry - didn't go & fat finger it 100pts above my entry   taken out immediately +22 - had to laugh


----------



## chops_a_must

BIG break of the lows!

Could all happen here. 5300 here we come I think. Got a few points on the open but sitting this out...


----------



## Edwood

yeah just hanging back here too now, watching for 1-2-3's on the 1min.  through the o/n low now


----------



## chops_a_must

Edwood said:


> yeah just hanging back here too now, watching for 1-2-3's on the 1min.  through the o/n low now




Looking at S4 now. Don't know what's under that...

With BHP rolling down again, it could get incredibly bad (not that it already isn't).


----------



## Trembling Hand

chops_a_must said:


> Looking at S4 now. Don't know what's under that...
> 
> With BHP rolling down again, it could get incredibly bad (not that it already isn't).




Would like to see a new low at the 2:00 margin call time then a run up for the close. But I think there will be no one left to play by then.


----------



## Edwood

anyone else noticed a change in margin requirement for SPI today?


----------



## Trembling Hand

Edwood said:


> anyone else noticed a change in margin requirement for SPI today?




Not untill you pointed it out.

Nice to be told about it by IB?


----------



## Trembling Hand

They do have this on their web site hidden away if you went looking for it.

Futures - Intraday Margin Requirements
Due to the exceptional volatility of the financial markets we are temporarily suspending reduced intraday margin.


----------



## Edwood

ah ha - cheers TH   - wasn't sure if it was just me...


----------



## Edwood

gee just been cooking tea for the kids, holy heck!  what a drop we've seen the last 2 days, SPI currently showing -7.29%


----------



## acouch

morning all,
today's road map
have a great day and good trades
ac


----------



## chops_a_must

Through yesterday's swing high.

The gap fill to the downside looking really nice you would think... if there weren't extenuating circumstances around.

If it does, like I said earlier... this is going to be awful.

A lot of big caps trying to roll.


----------



## nat

hi there any one ,just a question ,im demoing sonray trading platform and they have no facilities for market order ,they said for trading the spi there is no way to have one ,trying to use there platform if wanting to get out im finding if doesnt execute on the first go one then has to keep amending order ,then in process of doing that price runs away and keep amending order ,it is very annoying ,Is this the same for all future platforms or do others have market orders allowed ,thanx Nathan


----------



## Trembling Hand

nat said:


> hi there any one ,just a question ,im demoing sonray trading platform and they have no facilities for market order ,they said for trading the spi there is no way to have one ,trying to use there platform if wanting to get out im finding if doesnt execute on the first go one then has to keep amending order ,then in process of doing that price runs away and keep amending order ,it is very annoying ,Is this the same for all future platforms or do others have market orders allowed ,thanx Nathan




That's dodgy as my friend. Try IB or BrokerOne. much better and cheaper


----------



## nat

thanx for that trembling hand ,yes i thought was dodgy as to ,there platform is free but just one dodgy trade i cant get out of any where near i want certainly pays for that .I do have an account with broker one but commission higher and charge for platfrom ,but get what one pays for i guess ,ib def cheapest but bit concerned if things go wrong ,theres noone to ring .Nathan


----------



## Trembling Hand

nat said:


> thanx for that trembling hand ,yes i thought was dodgy as to ,there platform is free but just one dodgy trade i cant get out of any where near i want certainly pays for that .I do have an account with broker one but commission higher and charge for platfrom ,but get what one pays for i guess ,ib def cheapest but bit concerned if things go wrong ,theres noone to ring .Nathan




With IB you can ring a sydney number that transfers you to Hong Kong. trading desk. Ive used it no prob.


----------



## macca

Hi Nat,

have you had a look at City Index they are a point either side of the last trade on the SFE on the SPI, so 2 point spread only cost.

Trade from $1 on SPI, I have a small account to get charts on the SPI (only average charts but useful).

I believe you can open an account without funds if you just want to watch.

HTH


----------



## nat

macca said:


> Hi Nat,
> 
> have you had a look at City Index they are a point either side of the last trade on the SFE on the SPI, so 2 point spread only cost.
> 
> Trade from $1 on SPI, I have a small account to get charts on the SPI (only average charts but useful).
> 
> I believe you can open an account without funds if you just want to watch.
> 
> HTH




hi macca thanx for that do city index have volume on there spi charts .So is it a cfd of the spi ?Im currently using the ig markets for trading i dont mind there charts but they dont have volume .Also the 2 point spread is annoying as with the futures a lot of times is only 1 point .But i figure if i can succeed on the cfds then hopefully go alright on the futres except for quanities of money playing havoc with my pysche.Tried futures a year ago but relised pretty quick im out of my league but think am ready to give it another go.Nathan


----------



## nat

trembling Hand said:


> With IB you can ring a sydney number that transfers you to Hong Kong. trading desk. Ive used it no prob.




Ok thanx for that ,good to know all works if needed,Nathan


----------



## Trembling Hand

nat said:


> hi macca thanx for that do city index have volume on there spi charts .So is it a cfd of the spi ?Im currently using the ig markets for trading i dont mind there charts but they dont have volume .Also the 2 point spread is annoying as with the futures a lot of times is only 1 point .But i figure if i can succeed on the cfds then hopefully go alright on the futres except for quanities of money playing havoc with my pysche.Tried futures a year ago but relised pretty quick im out of my league but think am ready to give it another go.Nathan




The CFD index trading on a intraday basis suck. Getting over that spread every trade knocks your expectancy around big time. It's not a brokerage free trade by a long shot.
Of course the $25 tick on the SPI can be a bit much to learn on.


----------



## acouch

good morning all
todays road map
have a great day, and good trades
ac


----------



## julius

Does anyone know whether it's possible to get a longer backfill on 1 min data from IB?

bloody pc has given me grief this week

the whole bitch is broken - ended up losing most of my recent 1min data on the spi

if anyone is willing to share I need the data for Dec 07, Mar 08 exp. I  have 10+ years EOD data if someone wants to trade


----------



## Trembling Hand

julius said:


> Does anyone know whether it's possible to get a longer backfill on 1 min data from IB?
> 
> bloody pc has given me grief this week
> 
> the whole bitch is broken - ended up losing most of my recent 1min data on the spi
> 
> if anyone is willing to share I need the data for Dec 07, Mar 08 exp. I  have 10+ years EOD data if someone wants to trade




Here is the 1 min data. Its the day and overnight sessions. No guarantee that its not without gaps 

Got to find the Dec 07 stuff later.

http://tremblinghandtrader.typepad.com/1minSPI0308.txt


----------



## julius

cheers mate

thanks so much


----------



## acouch

Good morning all,
road map for today
have a great day, and good trades
ac


----------



## Edwood

spreads are quite wide at times today - sometimes out to 4pts....


----------



## acouch

good morning all,
ranges are so large they leave the road map, she has grown into a big girl these days.
Monday's road map
have a great weekend
ac


----------



## acouch

good morning all
todays road map
have a great day and good trades
ac


----------



## acouch

good morning all,
today's road map.
have a great day, and good trades
ac


----------



## Edwood

coiling up for a move - 4hrly chart


----------



## acouch

morning all,
sorry late, but couldnt get access to the forum..
road map for today
have a great day, and good trades
ac

http://img89.imageshack.us/img89/262/spi441xr2.png

sorry about this as well, as i cant seem to load up photobucket either atm.
hope it works, if not i will keep trying


----------



## acouch

oops, wrong chart..
try again
ac

http://img402.imageshack.us/my.php?image=spiml1ugc4.png


----------



## Trembling Hand

Boy that's some aggressive selling on the SPI. 

Shorts are just blowing a hole in the market. They going to get squeezed this arvo?


----------



## acouch

'Good morning all
today's road map
have a great day, and good trades
ac


----------



## acouch

good morning all
Monday's road map
have a great weekend
ac


----------



## AMR

Acouch - What is that? Are they pivots?


----------



## acouch

they are the cross of the Medianline, which are strong support/resistance..the orange dotted line in the line in the sand..above is for longs, below are for shorts..
to extend your knowledge on these, the link below will take you there, hope that this
is of some help to you
have a great day
ac

http://www.medianline.com/


----------



## acouch

good morning all
today's road map
have a great day, and good trades
ac


----------



## acouch

good morning all
today's road map
have a great day , and good trades
ac


----------



## acouch

good morning all
today's road map,
have a great day, and good trades
ac


----------



## palanquin

Acouch
I understand Fib numbers recognise the similarities. Any more information on medianlines? Have you drawn these lines yourself, inserted them from a chart option? Any books you would recommend? 
Thanks


----------



## acouch

Hi palanquin,
i set up two sets of ML's at the beginning of the contract, and these then should take us through for the next three months, if placed right
i then copy paste the lines along the chart as time moves along..as ML's go into time as you can see..a very simple tool, with amazing results..

if you look above you will see the url i posted yesterday i think..this is a free site, and Tim has been very generous with his knowledge..if you join, and then go through the archives you will find a lot of stuff.
Tim doesnt use the ML's quite like i do, but we all pick up our own way as time goes on..
there is also a site where you pay a monthly fee to learn on the net at your leisure..i will see if i can hunt it up..if so i will post it,
the road map doesnt go below 5499 today..next support is at 74 to be aware of..if that fails look for 5436 for support today.
hope this has been of some help
have a great day
ac


----------



## acouch

Good morning all
todays road map
have a great day, and good trades
ac


----------



## palanquin

Acouch
Many thanks..........I'll follow instructions and let you know if I get in a hole I can't dig my way out of.


----------



## acouch

no worries, if i can help let me know, but my teaching abilities are limited 
have a great weekend
ac


----------



## acouch

Good Morning all,
Monday's road map
have a great weekend, and take care
ac


----------



## acouch

good morning all
today's road map
have a great day, and good trades
ac


----------



## Edwood

gee this volatility is frustrating if you don't have time to sit in front of it all day - only way it seems is to trail stops, no point leaving stops at entry, good chance you'll be stopped out before you know it!


----------



## acouch

good morning all
today's road map
have a great day and good trades
ac


----------



## STspiman

Hi Ac,

Is there an explanation on how you use this roadmap in your trading. I assume they work well. I trade the SPI each day and i made note of your numbers today but didnt really know how to use them. Cheers

Steve T


----------



## acouch

Morning Steve,

all nos are strong support/resistance
the orange line is the line in the sand, which i find
works very well, above is for longs, below is for shorts.
i was reading your blog, and i see that you also use ft.
these lines also work that way as they go into time.
hope this is of some help,
good trades
ac

ps, if i could move the sc chart along further every morning that i do
it,it is always within a tic or two of price of the day..but i can only move it along for that day. eg:23.59.
as time moves on during the day, i can of course move it along.
a once again, but i don't repost the chart.
ac


----------



## acouch

Good morning all,
today's road map
have a great day, and good trades
ac


----------



## STspiman

AC,

Thks for the reply, much appreciated.

steve


----------



## acouch

Good morning all
today's road map
have a great day, and good trades
ac


----------



## julius

sorry to derail the thread but...

im just about to fork out $210 for historical tick data on the SPI

if anyone already has this and wouldn't mind helping me out I'd really appreciate it

thanks very much


----------



## julius

100+ limit order placed at 5549, then withdrawn ? ~2:20pm


----------



## acouch

good morning all
today's road map
have a great day and good trades
ac


----------



## acouch

good morning all
today's road map
have a great day, and good trades
ac


----------



## acouch

good morning all
today's road map
have a great day, and good trades
ac


----------



## acouch

good morning all
today's road map
have a great day, and good trades
ac


----------



## acouch

Good morning all
Monday's road map
have a great weekend
ac


----------



## julius

Anyone else trading the spi this morning? Jump in the chat room if she gets a bit slow


----------



## Joolean

Hi Julius,

where are you purchasing your historical SPI tick data from? I'm after the same and would be happy to pay that price as I haven't been able to find that data anywhere.
How much history does that give you?

Cheers,
Julian.


----------



## julius

well i've ordered it but it hasn't arrived yet...i'll let you know when it gets here


----------



## acouch

good morning all,
today's road map
have a great day, and good trades
ac


----------



## Trembling Hand

How jumpy is the SPI today? It trading like the HSI


----------



## Trembling Hand

Who turned on the sell BOT??


----------



## julius

it was couch


----------



## acouch

haha julius


----------



## Joolean

Thanks Julius,

that would be much appreciated.


----------



## acouch

good morning all
today's road map
have a great day, and good trades
ac


----------



## julius

arrr she be slow this mornin'

might need to wait till after lunch before things pick up


----------



## Trembling Hand

julius said:


> arrr she be slow this mornin'
> 
> might need to wait till after lunch before things pick up




Slow. There is nothing. 

Whats going on? Shorts not covering. No one chasing this strength. :sleeping:


----------



## julius

I'm too bloody impatient when it gets like this...

Tried to short the open twice this morning, stopped -4 both times

On a plus side, my system went long @ 5696, exitted @ 5708, (only testing atm)


----------



## julius

might be a decent short set up here at 5730...see what happens


----------



## julius

bogus...no weakness


----------



## Trembling Hand

julius said:


> i'm too bloody impatient when it gets like this...




I was going to add now that i have posted about it being sleepy from past calls its likely to explode. and yep there she goes 50 points in 20 mins


----------



## Trembling Hand

julius said:


> might be a decent short set up here at 5730...see what happens




In strength like that you need at least a lower low to get short. Runs like that when the Big guys are hitting the Ask 2  or 3 points above the market can run much further than you normally predict. 

You end up feeding yourself a whole head of pain.


----------



## IFocus

Hi acouch

Just waded though the thread reading your posts have been meaning to do it for a while, thanks for all the charts and posts.

I have been a long time user of ML's after running into Tim Morge vis NQoos but have never managed to use them to enter positions only to frame trends and confirm exits. Have watched Tim Morge but I am simply not at that level like you said great guy.

I was hoping you could explain how you use ML's in your trading of the SPI to assist your discission  to enter / exit positions / maybe give a trade example real or pretend would be good.

Would really appreciate any insight thanks

Also thanks to all the other contributers to thread nice to read though an ego free zone.

Focus


----------



## Trembling Hand

Text book trading. even if you have a inclination to trade against the trend.


----------



## Freddo

professor_frink said:


> I stick to regular business hours myself- she's pretty thinly traded after hours. Back in the old thread, Freddo would have orders going off after hours, but he was more of a swing trader. Currently the spread is out to 3 pts already(54/57) and there is only 1 contract offered on either side.
> 
> If you are interested in getting some action at this time of the day, the Hang Seng is still open in our region.




I heard someone mention my name so I'm back !

I don't use swing trading these days !
Where I have I been? The "death/bermuda" (as WayneL calls it) contract nearly got me and that was using swing trades.  I am not saying swing trades don't work it just that the SPI moves ALOT more these days then it used to and it broke my money management.

Fortunately my second system has proven to be robust enough and actually given me more profit in these more volatile and larger range days.

I still use Sycom, I some times use it to enter, take a profit , take a loss.
I do not use Sycom for analysis. I did look at using a combined day and night session chart but didn't put too much time into it.

How good have these Gap days been?
Didn't get a trade away today because the Gap didn't close but Monday and Tuesday were rippers !


----------



## Freddo

I have a system based on ranges which has been paper trading well and it gave a signal to go long at the close it does not use a Stop Loss on Sycom.

I also have me a signal to go long on 21/2/2008 but would have seen me get stopped out on 22/2/2008.


----------



## julius

Freddo I also have a system based on ranges which uses no stops...

What kind of time frame? Intraday or <?


----------



## Freddo

julius it's EOD, I have an intraday version but no intraday data to test it with.

I bought a CD a while ago with tick data but it was a mess and I couldn't get the data loaded.


----------



## julius

Any chance the data was from adest?


----------



## Freddo

Yes it was....


----------



## julius

I JUST purchased the same data...absolutely useless, I'll be calling about a refund tommorow


----------



## acouch

good morning all
today's road map
have a great day, and good trades
ac


----------



## Freddo

Sycom close is down from the close of yesterday's day session.

Will watch the open for the gap size and see if it trys to close giving me a intraday long trade.

ADRS were a mixed bag, so up some slightly down


----------



## acouch

5725 will be gap fill from overnight..if spi opens at syco close at 12..but take note there is a gap to be filled below at 5673..filled it on syco, but needs to be filled on my daily chart as well.
we will see what she offers us as usual
have a great day
ac


----------



## acouch

oops going blind here ..gap fill from over night was at 5715..hod so far is at 5714..
ac


----------



## Trembling Hand

Sure did fill the gaps!! from 25th/26th


----------



## julius

hey couch - do you think you could post a couple of your setups at the end of the day, if it's not too much trouble of course


----------



## acouch

as you can see the one shown with the gap to be filled, the other is my trading chart, and of course you see the road map every day 
hope this is of some help
ac


----------



## Freddo

acouch

I looked at Fib trader once, liked it but trying to scroll the screen drove me nuts !

I couldn't find even basic chart controls like ... lets say the bars were really tall and skinny and I wanted to shorten the length and fatten them a bit.  Is there an easy way to do that?  You screen dump of Fib Trader looks good

(I have of course assumed the second chart of fib trader  )

Cheers

Freddo


----------



## acouch

hi freddo,
yes second shot is ft..to thicken the bars you left click on the ft banner top of chart there you can make  ajustments..but you are right it isn't a very user friendly software.
for those of us that use it, some of us have been very fortunate over time that frank did so much work on it..gave us some guidelines..but still it can drive you crazy setting it up .but it is all there if you have the patience.

ac


----------



## Joolean

Hey Freddo and Julius,

have either of you tried CQG data factory?
https://www.cqgdatafactory.com/

I stumbled upon them the other day and went through the process of purchasing spi data. It says they have historical tick data back to 2000 but there were a few caveats.
I didn't go through with the purchase but will try buying a months worth just to check it out. 

Regards,
Julian.


----------



## julius

jools we both got ours from adest and its rubbish...i'm going to look at purchasing some from tickdata.com but it is $xpensive$


----------



## Freddo

Julian

Never heard of them but thanks for the link.

I'm trying to work out how much they charge.

Cheers
Freddo


----------



## julius

freddo check these guys out to : http://www.tickdata.com

they are supposed to be top notch


----------



## Freddo

Thanks Julius.
I see what you mean by expensive, 
they are supposed to very good though


----------



## Freddo

Seriously Fiboncacci Trader has the WORST chart controls I have ever come across.

Thank goodness Metastock and Amibroker are soo much easier

check out my chart in the trial copy looks like....

And do you think I can compress those bars????

Have looked at http://www.fibonaccitrader.com/HELP40/default.htm
where it says click on the little boxes... little freaking things are about 1 x 1 pixels in size

Anybody know how to drive this thing?


----------



## acouch

freddo,
to expand the bars..left click on mouse along the bottom of the chart where the time is..this will expand the bars if you run the mouse above that  on the chart, this will move the chart back/forward..
she is tricky that is for sure 
ac


----------



## acouch

oops..on your chart..it is where the dates are down the bottom


----------



## Freddo

acouch said:


> freddo,
> to expand the bars..left click on mouse along the bottom of the chart where the time is..this will expand the bars if you run the mouse above that  on the chart, this will move the chart back/forward..
> she is tricky that is for sure
> ac




Thanks ac... that worked
LOL if I click on the little arrows pointing vertically together which I thought would shorten or compress the bars they get bigger, If I click on the arrows point away from each other they still get bigger

Sorry everyone I know this isn;t purely SPI related I am trying to build some testing of FrankD's work as well as Fibonacci for the SPI


----------



## julius

nothing is intuitive with FT...you just have to keep trying until you work it out

it has some great functions but as a whole i find the lack of flexibility pretty tough


----------



## julius

hey couch, where can i learn more about renko ?


----------



## acouch

julius,
you cant beat google
http://www.google.com.au/search?q=r...s=org.mozilla:en-US:official&client=firefox-a

ac


----------



## acouch

good morning all
today's road map
have a great day, and good trades
ac


----------



## CFD

julius said:


> hey couch, where can i learn more about renko ?




I find it very hard to find helpful sites. Every one I go to spends half the description talking about Japanese bricks!

Whilst knowing how the bricks are formed I have yet to find how to trade them. Bricks size would seem to need be set to an appropriate size for varying price stocks. Setting charts to use the closing price, H/L/C or O/H/L/C etc gives a totally different chart. 

I like the idea of them as they filter out noise and time. Good luck and I'd like to hear how you go.


----------



## Trembling Hand

Boy! this is getting ugly. Was thinking Japans open might help but nope.


----------



## acouch

good morning all
Monday's road map
have a great weekend
ac


----------



## Freddo

Today will be very interesting.

Sycom close was 5420 so thats 144 points down from Fridays close.
I believe 144 is a significant number for those people in the Gann (whoops can I use that word in this thread  )  If I find out why I'll post it in the Gann SPI thread

Anyway, I expect we will see a strong rally at the open from stops going off.
Hopefully I'll get 12-15 points of a scalp

Happing SPIing

Freddo


----------



## Freddo

No rally off the open to give a scalp trade like I thought it might..... 
it's come down too far for me to short it so I'll wait until tomorrow for a trade
opportunity.


----------



## Trembling Hand

Freddo said:


> No rally off the open to give a scalp trade like I thought it might.....
> it's come down too far for me to short it so I'll wait until tomorrow for a trade
> opportunity.




Going home already Freddo?

Should be a large range day today. With plenty more opportunities.


----------



## Freddo

Trembling Hand said:


> Going home already Freddo?
> 
> Should be a large range day today. With plenty more opportunities.




Yep, taking my bat and ball...

Unfortunately I have appointments for the rest of the day.

I agree should be plenty of intraday ops but I won't be able to stick close enough to see them emerge then manage the trades.

I'm mainly EOD for the next couple of months, with the big range days we have been having it's killing me being on the sidelines.


----------



## Freddo

Doesn't look like I have missed much !

Can someone poke this thing with a stick and wake it up!


----------



## Broadway

Murphy's Law, soon as you left it tried to go south, found some volume (1.52pm), got rejected twice , found some more volume then took off. 

Interesting 80% retracement to finish the day.


----------



## julius

not sure if i am the only donkey but i just discovered this in fib trader:

right click chart background
go to chart > open options
go to 'others' tab
tick the 'scroll bar' box


----------



## acouch

good morning all
today's road map
have a great day, and good trades
ac


----------



## Freddo

Stumbled across something very interesting. 

Check out the attached chart.

Signal is buy when the high of the coloured bar with the red dot is broken.


----------



## acouch

good morning all
today's road map
have a great day, and good trades
ac


----------



## Freddo

Sycom close 5370, well down on the close of the day session yesterday.

Should be an interesting open today will be looking for an opportunity to trade
the gap attempting to close.


----------



## nat

Freddo said:


> Sycom close 5370, well down on the close of the day session yesterday.
> 
> Should be an interesting open today will be looking for an opportunity to trade
> the gap attempting to close.




hi there freddo good to c you posting again,with that chart you put up is it saying an entry point im guessiing but for every entry it needs an exit or is that in there as well ?

Could very well be  a gap trade today ,but who knows could just keep going down to.

What confirmation do you use to think be worth going for the gap trade?Just enter on strength long with stop and let it go ?Nathan


----------



## Trembling Hand

Freddo said:


> Sycom close 5370, well down on the close of the day session yesterday.
> 
> Should be an interesting open today will be looking for an opportunity to trade
> the gap attempting to close.




Gap  closed very smartly and now taking off to yesterdays highs wouldn't be surprised to see it reverse there around Japans open, 11:00.


----------



## onemore

G/Day Freddo,

Welcome back ,can you explain the chart entries in a bit more detail.

Cheers


----------



## Freddo

nat said:


> hi there freddo good to c you posting again,with that chart you put up is it saying an entry point im guessiing but for every entry it needs an exit or is that in there as well ?
> 
> Could very well be  a gap trade today ,but who knows could just keep going down to.
> 
> What confirmation do you use to think be worth going for the gap trade?Just enter on strength long with stop and let it go ?Nathan





Hi Nathan,
Great to "talk" to you again.
The chart I posted is in it's infancy. I was simply experimenting with a home grown utility I call XRay cause I have a terrible imagination however it is supposed to show the "inside" of the market.

Xray is something I binned because it didn't give me many signals.
Last night I was just tinkering with it and I nearly fell off my chair when
I realised that it was generating some excellent signals.

I disregarded it previously because of I had forgotten an important point
in my design I was worried about getting hundreds or results so I had it just return the top result. By the time I got it working I forgot this important point so when it returned a signal that is strong but only happens twice a year
I left it.

Some changes I did last night meant I have a potential system based on 8 signals which offer around 8 trades per year each so 8 x 8 = 64 potential trades per year.

what I have to do now is fine tune the exit and calculate things like expectancy and the equity curve to see how that looks. Then run it on out of sample data.

Re Gap trades (got my wish this morning  )

I usually give it around 12 points sometimes just 8 then enter that direction.
If it is in the direction of what I think is a larger trend and I have time I trail a stop similar to a swing trade. If it's a counter trend trade then usually I'll look for a quick scalp.


----------



## Freddo

onemore said:


> G/Day Freddo,
> 
> Welcome back ,can you explain the chart entries in a bit more detail.
> 
> Cheers





Hello Onemore,

The chart I posted doesn't show entries, it shows bars which are signalling a potential long entry when the high of the signal bar is broken.

Thats as far as I have got it but it is showing great potential.
I still have to fully develop and test the entry and exit.

Xray (got to get a better name) which I mentioned in a previous post
gave me a list of short signals as well which I haven't charted yet.

I will post more details as I code and test things.

If it does work then it will once and for all prove my theory that charts should be thrown in the bin (for me at least anyway). I will also have a truckload of books and software to sell.

Cheers

Freddo


----------



## julius

freddo '07 was a unique market...i have daily systems that killed it for the whole year but fail dismissaly in other periods. worth a bit of caution imo


----------



## Freddo

julius said:


> freddo '07 was a unique market...i have daily systems that killed it for the whole year but fail dismissaly in other periods. worth a bit of caution imo




Totally agree Julius, my testing last night was for 2000 - current.

I always also test on an out of sample data range and I'll also look too remove the extraordinary profitable trades and look for the median but usually leave the most adverse trades in.

I test via system testing in charting software cause thats the quickest.
Then I test via a database and SQL queries
then finally I step through every trade manually.

I do this because charting software offers a quick way of testing however
there is still an element of black box to many charting software testers.
Anything that looks promising in this goes to the next level.

I use a database and a home grown application called take_a_trade
it means a bit of time coding the trading system but because I know exactly
how take_a_trade manages trades -eliminates all black box syndrome

If it makes through this level - I step each trade manually because I may have a bug in take_a_trade.

I once found a system that returned something like $30,000 a year trading
1 contract ... yee haa ! I tested using a system tester on different years bull and bear.... results were consistent .... woo hoo

Put it through take_a_trade results lousy!   WTF
turns out I confused between Metastock and TS languages and put a minus sign where it shouldn't have been.

So my system wasn't looking back trying to work out tomorrow.

It looked FORWARD and took a trade today because it could look to "tomorrows" price's since with historical data
"tomorrow" has already happened

how funny is that !


----------



## Freddo

Trembling Hand said:


> Gap  closed very smartly and now taking off to yesterdays highs wouldn't be surprised to see it reverse there around Japans open, 11:00.




and what happened around 11:30?
Good call!


----------



## Freddo

The afternoon is kicking it down big time


----------



## Trembling Hand

Freddo said:


> and what happened around 11:30?
> Good call!




Shame I didn't ride it all the way down!! Scalpers curse, Even the good ideas turn into just another trade.

Great day though huge range in the moves.


----------



## Freddo

......[deep in thought]......

I "think" our market is oversold and was expecting we would find some support
and see some upwards movement.

quick glance at the chart tells me we are headed further south.
Will post again later tonight once I get  chance to run my systems across this cos you all know I reckon charts are deceptive creatures.


----------



## julius

fred today was hard to call; not the nearly the amount of rotation we have seen lately... sustain strength off the open followed by a huge sell off after lunch. 

I was looking to trade a rally into close but it fell much further than I expected - three significant counter rallies before eventually finding buying support at ~15:30


----------



## Freddo

julius said:


> fred today was hard to call; not the nearly the amount of rotation we have seen lately... sustain strength off the open followed by a huge sell off after lunch.
> 
> I was looking to trade a rally into close but it fell much further than I expected - three significant counter rallies before eventually finding buying support at ~15:30




Agreed ,got on board the run at the open as expected but nothing for the rest of the day.

Don't have any clear signals on my EOD system. 

I'll bet there are truckloads of orders sitting just above 5464.

Cheers Freddo


----------



## Freddo

interestingly my new system (being evaluated not traded at this time)
says to go long upon breaking of todays high that maybe tomorrow or the day after.

Now i know thats not rocket science because the closeness of the highs form today and yesterday will tell you that.  

What this is saying is that it detects a long entry opportunity because of the potential end of a cycle.

Reading this chart you can see the white bar would have caused a loss going long the next day as the high was broken.

No entry on the 2 following purple bars but the purple bar on the 22 jan was a ripper. Initial version of this system would have entered at the open on the 23rd.  Fingernail chewing due to the low close that day. Happier on 24th delighted on 25th and out on the 30th jan as it broke the low of the 29th.





Lets see how it pans out as i said I am not trading this yet.


----------



## acouch

good morning all,
today;s road map
have a great day and good trades
ac


----------



## Freddo

Sycom close 5405.  Day close yesterday 5416

I wouldn't expect a gap 

The preopen action could be interesting I believe this causes larger or smaller gaps at the open.

Will see if the open action gives me anything else
If we get near the high of yesterday I'll be on red alert


----------



## Freddo

Freddo said:


> Sycom close 5405.  Day close yesterday 5416
> 
> I wouldn't expect a gap
> 
> The preopen action could be interesting I believe this causes larger or smaller gaps at the open.
> 
> Will see if the open action gives me anything else
> If we get near the high of yesterday I'll be on red alert




We gapped this morning even though Sycom and the prior day session closes were not far apart.

I think because of preopen action.
The easy trade this morning was the strong run up as some of the short positions got stopped out so quick scalp was easy to take it's the small fast money trades.

As have posted here many times gaps often like to fill so as it as come back through the opened a short position and I'll trail the stop


----------



## Freddo

I'm out of my short position.

Absolutely no idea what it might do from here so I'm sitting on the sidelines unless it starts heading up and gets near yesterdays high


----------



## julius

just wondering what techniques others who are more experienced than myself use to confirm intraday trend changes on the SPI...

I use a break of trailing/lows highs, but it's quite late which can make it hard to get good R:R without getting whipped out of positions

any suggestions ?


----------



## Freddo

julius said:


> just wondering what techniques others who are more experienced than myself use to confirm intraday trend changes on the SPI...
> 
> I use a break of trailing/lows highs, but it's quite late which can make it hard to get good R:R without getting whipped out of positions
> 
> any suggestions ?




[sounds of crickets chirping]
Julius I don't know if I am more experienced then you. 

I only intraday trade of a couple of conditions, 1st the open action and I only pick quick easy scalps when they appear I don't see them everyday.
I trade closing of gaps for intraday trades as well.

Sometimes I use a trailing stops on intraday swings other times I put it just above high or below the low of a 5 minute chart depending if i am long or short

For my EOD system trades I enter at anytime the signal occurs however this is not concerned with the intraday trend.

Regards Freddo


----------



## acouch

good morning all
today;s road map
have a great day, and good trades
ac


----------



## Freddo

Sycom close 5358 down 95 points on yesterdays close
so we should have a big gap.

So we should be in for some hot action at the open

I suspect we will see sharp selling for a scalp
then trades arise as  the gap trying to close.
However I'll just look for trades and take them.

We got sooooo close to those tops at 5464 5462 yesterday
keep an eye on them if we get up around there again


----------



## nat

hi there all i have the close from last night right on a monthly pivot S1 for whats that worth if breaks that convinclingly got a little way to fall after that .
But market will do what it wants anyway ,good trading ,Nathan


----------



## Trembling Hand

julius said:


> just wondering what techniques others who are more experienced than myself use to confirm intraday trend changes on the SPI...
> 
> I use a break of trailing/lows highs, but it's quite late which can make it hard to get good R:R without getting whipped out of positions
> 
> any suggestions ?




Julius I guess it depends how frequent you trade. I will use a trailing stop on each 1 min bar. Which means you get stopped out just about every 3 to 4 minutes. but that's fine its my style. I don't give a hoot about 30 to 40 point winners. I get them some times but mostly I'm looking for 30 sec to 4 min trades and will do it many many times per day.


----------



## julius

um...holy **** ?


----------



## Trembling Hand

Who's the bad boy throwing around those 200 contract sell orders?

:shoot:

Nasty!! (for some  )


----------



## Freddo

julius said:


> um...holy **** ?




Couldn't have put it better myself  .
that gap isn't closing for a while
but I got my short at the open my trailing stop got hit made a profit
so I was high fiveing myself. 

next thing I know the poor SPI is getting the cr@p kicked out of it


----------



## julius




----------



## Freddo

Trembling Hand said:


> Who's the bad boy throwing around those 200 contract sell orders?



Not me!
I only place orders in multiples of 201


----------



## julius

slaughter on the SPI


----------



## Freddo

what a weird day.
Heavy action in the morning, then flat finally someone tries to kick start it.


----------



## acouch

evening all
for our syco traders for this evening
ac


----------



## julius

hey couchy whats the indicator in the lower pane ?


----------



## acouch

CCI/n commod channel index
ac


----------



## acouch

good morning
Monday's road map
have a great weekend, and take care
ac


----------



## >Apocalypto<

Looking forward to hitting the SPI.

I am going to use IG SPI chart, with IB as the broker. still practicing now. Looking to go live with IB in about 2-3 months. need more solid practice. still working out the Ratios per trade.. TH do u go into a trade with a set limit? or do u close manually? 

On the chart posted below are all the entries u could have hit but realistically I would have only taken half of them. getting pretty pumped up about it! :scratch:

I know that chart was taken in a fast and volatile market but it works great in the slower markets as well.


----------



## Trembling Hand

>Apocalypto< said:


> I am going to use IG SPI chart, with IB as the broker. still practicing now. Looking to go live with IB in about 2-3 months. need more solid practice. still working out the Ratios per trade.. TH do u go into a trade with a set limit? or do u close manually?




I trade with Bracket orders so i have a OCO stop market and limit target or targets orders. But rarely let the stop get hit and will take myself out manually. Also scratch a hell of a lot of trades.


----------



## julius

breakeven stops really are pure gold

...looks interesting Apoc - is that your system ?


----------



## >Apocalypto<

Trembling Hand said:


> I trade with Bracket orders so i have a OCO stop market and limit target or targets orders. But rarely let the stop get hit and will take myself out manually. Also scratch a hell of a lot of trades.




mastering and incorperating orders into short term trading (intraday) can be a god send. I am looking at limits to have set take profit areas., And stops of course.


----------



## >Apocalypto<

julius said:


> breakeven stops really are pure gold
> 
> ...looks interesting Apoc - is that your system ?




Julius,

I sent a pm with the link.


----------



## >Apocalypto<

today's trades

short

ent 5215
ext 5201

it kept going but 14 was a very nice take!

building now I won't be taking any more shorts until we have another new down cycle.


----------



## >Apocalypto<

Today's trades.

14 points on the first, 5 on the 2nd & 11 on my third. total 30 for the day. Looking forward to going live!

I have added a rule to my trading, I will not let a 5+ winner turn into a loss. I am even thinking about putting limits to take 5 off and let the trade run at break even. Still playing around with that. Opening each trade with two contracts will mean total 10 point losses, If stopped.


----------



## acouch

good morning all
today's road map
have a great day, and good trades
ac


----------



## Trembling Hand

Anyone enjoying this?? I am, wish every day was like this. Already done 24 round trips.  time for my third


----------



## Edwood

yes its nice & bouncy alright - have been in & out twice now from 5104


----------



## Freddo

Loving the intraday action.
Have.n't been able to take an EOD trade for a while, my stops would have to be put too far away


----------



## julius

Lovely short play off the pivots this morning...


----------



## Freddo

I bought some intraday data from www.cqg.com
just about to load it and back test, one worryng part is their FAQ says the date and time is recorded at their local Chicago time not SFE time.
So trying to figure out whats the day and whats the night sessions data
might tip me over the edge.


----------



## julius

fred I bought 2 years of  tick data from www.tickdata.com...

that sh*t is pure


----------



## Freddo

julius said:


> fred I bought 2 years of  tick data from www.tickdata.com...
> 
> that sh*t is pure




Thanks julius, I'm pretty sure I'm going to have to put an order in with them
I think there is at least 16hours difference between the sydney and chicago time thats going to be a major pain in the  (|)


----------



## nat

Hi there all ,hey julies,is that a daily pivot price bouncing off ?

I have a monthly and weekly pivot arond 5103 and 5107 holding market up at moment ,i was following daily pivots for a while but found them of little use to me but weekly and monthly im finding very significent ,


hey trembling hand have you looked at doing less trades but geetting more points, im guessing you have ,is it the excitment of doing scalpes or youve found just better for your style .i was doing smaller moves but found 1 bad move wiped out all gains from smaller moves ,am gradually holding for longer moves now and tighter stops and am gradually getting ahead more .Nathan


----------



## Trembling Hand

nat said:


> hey Trembling Hand have you looked at doing less trades but geetting more points, im guessing you have ,is it the excitment of doing scalpes or youve found just better for your style .i was doing smaller moves but found 1 bad move wiped out all gains from smaller moves ,am gradually holding for longer moves now and tighter stops and am gradually getting ahead more .Nathan




Not the excitement just found my niche. I had a much higher expectancy going for 20 point or more moves but I make much more money scalping. My expectancy scalping is not much more than 1 point (after brokerage on the SPI) but times 100 odd round trips on the SPI thats a good days work. (then there is the HSI) I know its not for every one. You gotta be comfortable taking multiple loses and taking them fast.


----------



## macca

Hi Julius,

What numbers are you basing your pivots on, mine are different ?

Hi Nat,

that sounds interesting, I will work them out, do you just use weekly/ monthly  H, L, C then standard pivot rules to get them ?


----------



## Freddo

Trembling Hand said:


> Not the excitement just found my niche. I had a much higher expectancy going for 20 point or more moves but I make much more money scalping. My expectancy scalping is not much more than 1 point (after brokerage on the SPI) but times 100 odd round trips on the SPI thats a good days work. (then there is the HSI) I know its not for every one. You gotta be comfortable taking multiple loses and taking them fast.




Very interesting TH....
For my scalps I look for 3 points after brokerage but would not trade this as often as you.

I did very well on the HSI for a while, then it was like someone reverse engineered my trading plan. i traded it to the rule prefected and it underwent the longest lossing streak (just as i started to trade multiple contracts too).

Do you use the same system on the HSI as the SPI?
and can you please post it here in full detail ...  just kidding please send it just to me in a PM


----------



## Trembling Hand

Freddo said:


> Do you use the same system on the HSI as the SPI?




System whats that?

Very discretionary. Just simple price patterns and working the spread.


----------



## nat

macca said:


> Hi Julius,
> 
> What numbers are you basing your pivots on, mine are different ?
> 
> Hi Nat,
> 
> that sounds interesting, I will work them out, do you just use weekly/ monthly  H, L, C then standard pivot rules to get them ?




hi macca ,i just use the standard garden variety pivots for monthly and weeklies ,i then put them on my chart as a bit of a guide along with other things eg today being a monthly and weekly so close together one has strong confluence and as day turned out tried to go below them but each time someone pulled it back up above ,but tomorrow could be another day or the night session might get it below well and good .
i get the high low and close off of future source charts then put them in this
http://www.mypivots.com/Education/tools/pivot-calculator/     then just write them down for month or week .Bronte had a bit about pivots and stuff back in thread earlier.I would love to learn amibroker one day as ive seen others do charts here that does it automatically.

Also am finding acouches numbers very handy as well to get targets or directions  specially if lines up with a monthly oor weekly pivot ,thanx acouch for them ,thou i should be learning how to do them myself one day .

Nathan


----------



## macca

Thanks for that Nathan, I never thought to use them over the longer time frames.

So for weekly, you use the previous Monday to Friday HLC and apply them for the next week.

I use that calculator for my dailies so no probs there.

good luck with your trading 

Macca


----------



## julius

macca : it's a variation on traditional pivots using .618 of the range...

tremblinghand - how long have you been day trading ?


----------



## nat

macca said:


> Thanks for that Nathan, I never thought to use them over the longer time frames.
> 
> So for weekly, you use the previous Monday to Friday HLC and apply them for the next week.
> 
> I use that calculator for my dailies so no probs there.
> 
> good luck with your trading
> 
> Macca




yes that is correct and same for previous month,Nathan


----------



## >Apocalypto<

Today's Demo trades,

total 16 for the day. today was a touch more tricky then yesterday. but another great day!

TH, today was 1 of those day's that made me think dame this f%$King spread. . I take solace knowing it's only a demo condition that i have to deal with.


----------



## Broadway

Aussie financials have finished a bottom today. esp MQG with volume.
Looks like we might have finished the test of January's lows.
Fed to the rescue...finally.
SPI and banks should look good from now.
Hopefully for more than a few days.


----------



## acouch

good morning all
today's road map
have a great day, and good trades
ac


----------



## Freddo

Loving these gaps!  

There is no way I could sleep at night trading EOD at the moment.

Loving the intraday stuff though.
The open gave me an easy long trade need to watch now to see if the gap tries to close. If it starts coming back throught the open I'll be hitching a ride with it.


----------



## nat

hi all hope everyones trading going weell.
Hey maccca did you put your weekly and monthly pivots in they played a part agin the smorning.Dailies were left well behind thou could play a part later on in day .also yesterday one had a weekly monthly and a daily pivot cluster in a tight range so def played a part.Nathan


----------



## julius

fred what were you looking for on your long this morning ...


----------



## julius

SPI traders : hit up the chat room if you get bored through lunch


----------



## julius

Apoc I bet you're killing it today... go on, have a gloat :


----------



## Freddo

julius said:


> fred what were you looking for on your long this morning ...




Hi Julius,

The long trade this morning was purely based on me slip streaming
as I believed the "bears" would be in a panic at such a big gap.

My short today was simply based on the tendancy for gaps to attempt to close. They don't always but regularly do.

Some very very easy trades today.
Didn't use a single indicator just a bar chart. Just simply based on typical behaviour of this contract.

:bananasmi


----------



## acouch

Good morning all
today's road map
have a great day, and good trades
ac


----------



## macca

Hi Nat,

In danger of info overload here 

I have dailies, weeklies, ML's, fibs, got numbers everywhere, just as well I am still on my "L Plates " 

I am starting to get the feel of it (I hope)

Macca


----------



## Trembling Hand

macca said:


> In danger of info overload here
> 
> I have dailies, weeklies, ML's, fibs, got numbers everywhere, just as well I am still on my "L Plates "





Got any room for a price bar on you charts?


----------



## nat

macca said:


> Hi Nat,
> 
> In danger of info overload here
> 
> I have dailies, weeklies, ML's, fibs, got numbers everywhere, just as well I am still on my "L Plates "
> 
> I am starting to get the feel of it (I hope)
> 
> Macca




ha ha yes it can get a bit that way,i get around it  a bit by having a few charts on different screens with different things on them ,as im going along in my trading life im finding im using less off a lot of things and more just price action and support and res off of important levels ,and diff time charts eg hourly ,10 min 5 min 1 min .etc, ive progressed from the losing stage to break even trading and just starting to edge ahead ,so just got to keep persisting and change things that hinder one and keep things that help.Nathan


----------



## Trembling Hand

Anyone having trouble with their IB connection. Mine keeps dropping out every bloody 30 seconds. c:


----------



## acouch

no problems here , i am on the hk server
ac


----------



## Trembling Hand

OK Thanks. seems like it was my Internet connection.


----------



## julius

Looks like it's found some kind of support sround ~5165...have to wait and see what plays out this arvo after another huge sell this morning


----------



## Trembling Hand

want a laugh? Not all well in scalping land today. 
120 trades.
270 round trips. about 1% of the SPI today.
todays expectancy???

0.029 points per trade after brokerage!! :bonk:


----------



## nat

Trembling Hand said:


> want a laugh? Not all well in scalping land today.
> 120 trades.
> 270 round trips. about 1% of the SPI today.
> todays expectancy???
> 
> 0.029 points per trade after brokerage!! :bonk:




lol you should geet a hamper from your broker for chrissy ,i got chopped up the smorning and finished for day just as decided to go down ,way it goes .

I thought the start of todays trading wouldve suited you this morn trembling ,didi it all go downhill after that?Nice rally happening now can it be sustained .NATHAN


----------



## Trembling Hand

nat said:


> I thought the start of todays trading wouldve suited you this morn trembling ,didi it all go downhill after that?Nice rally happening now can it be sustained .NATHAN




I was having a good first hour but then managed to turn it to dog poop.
and my connection kept dropping out around lunch just turned the day into a real waste of effort.


----------



## Joolean

Hi Julius,

Would you mind telling me what the two years worth of tick data cost?
I just downloaded the TickWrite demo with 3 months sample data and it is quite good.

It's so difficult to work out the prices just looking at the main site info.


----------



## acouch

good morning all
today's road map
have a great day, and good trades
ac


----------



## julius

Joolean said:


> Hi Julius,
> 
> Would you mind telling me what the two years worth of tick data cost?
> I just downloaded the TickWrite demo with 3 months sample data and it is quite good.
> 
> It's so difficult to work out the prices just looking at the main site info.




$180 AUD or there abouts


----------



## Freddo

Would be bears ruined my scalp off the gap !
Have to sit and watch now to see where I can set some traps.
Probablt won'r be until this afternoon.

Whilst the open today was higher then the close yesterday
Strictly speaking it wasn't a gap though and simply got an itchy trigger finger.
Lesson to self, always check the daily chart even though I trade off intraday


----------



## Joolean

Cheers Julius.

That's much cheaper than I was expecting.


----------



## acouch

good morning all
Monday's road map
have a great weekend, and take care
ac


----------



## Trembling Hand

You can't complain about this action. Near on 100 points swing up and then 120 back down and we still have 5 hours to go


----------



## Freddo

Trembling Hand said:


> You can't complain about this action. Near on 100 points swing up and then 120 back down and we still have 5 hours to go




Absolutely loving it TH !
Got my much loved Gap closing up, got my swing back through the open.


----------



## Trembling Hand

Freddo said:


> Absolutely loving it TH !
> Got my much loved Gap closing up, got my swing back through the open.




Yeah. Even I have been letting a few run.

The gaps at times are a little scary though.


----------



## acouch

good morning all
today's road map
have a great day, and good trades
ac


----------



## acouch

good morning all
this is the last road map till after easter, 
as this contract rollsover tomorrow, i am
setting up a new one, hopefully it will be as good 
have a great day, and good trades.
Happy & Safe Easter to you all
ac


----------



## Freddo

Sycom close 5246
Yesterdays day close 5098

So we should get one of much loved Gap opens.

Have a great day!


----------



## Freddo

got my rally off the open.

Now lets see if we get the gap trying to close


----------



## Trembling Hand

Anyone else seeing the funny buggers BOT. Every down tick puts in a 25 to 40 buy order on the bid then if someone comes over the top with a higher bid it disappears but then instantaneously reappears if the higher bid gets taken out. 

Not a buy BOT not a sell BOT but a go nowhere BOT


----------



## nat

Trembling Hand said:


> Anyone else seeing the funny buggers BOT. Every down tick puts in a 25 to 40 buy order on the bid then if someone comes over the top with a higher bid it disappears but then instantaneously reappears if the higher bid gets taken out.
> 
> Not a buy BOT not a sell BOT but a go nowhere BOT




And at the moment thats what its doing going nowhere,Nathan


----------



## Freddo

nat said:


> And at the moment thats what its doing going nowhere,Nathan




It's done just enough to flick me out of my short.
I was hoping it would fall out of bed.

Thats me done for the day. Time to sit and watch.


----------



## Freddo

We should get another Gap day today.

Sycom close is 100 points lower then yesterdays close.

Usual game plan, today I'm looking for a short entry after it opens
then at some stage we should see the gap trying to close.
If it goes like a freight train trying to close up the gap from the open then I'll forget the short


----------



## Trembling Hand

Well good bye to the march 08 contract its been a ripper.


----------



## Freddo

Freddo said:


> We should get another Gap day today.
> 
> Sycom close is 100 points lower then yesterdays close.
> 
> Usual game plan, today I'm looking for a short entry after it opens
> then at some stage we should see the gap trying to close.
> If it goes like a freight train trying to close up the gap from the open then I'll forget the short




Tried to slip stream off a 2 minute chart when it took off upwards from the open which didn't work out.

got my Short entry as it came back through on the down side which put some points in my pocket, but it did just enough for me to go long as it turned and went through the open again before I got stopped out.

Bring back the March contract, I liked it much better


----------



## Trembling Hand

Looks like the SPI is going to sleep. 

I'm only posting this because it normally does the opposite right after I post


----------



## Broadway

Is it just me, or is IB having some glitches, like not accepting orders and graphs not updating?

thx


----------



## Trembling Hand

Broadway said:


> Is it just me, or is IB having some glitches, like not accepting orders and graphs not updating?
> 
> thx




looks like the Day trading margins have been pulled again


----------



## Trembling Hand

Looks like it was the daylight savings thing Day trading margins are back


----------



## Broadway

thx TH.


----------



## Edwood

Trembling Hand said:


> Looks like it was the daylight savings thing Day trading margins are back




sent them a note TH they reckon they'll have the daylight saving thing resolved tomorrow


----------



## Freddo

Should see some action today with a decent size GAP expected at the open
Have a great day Freddo


----------



## julius

Well thats got to be the easiest 44-point gap close in a while...

Pitty I wasn't on it (IB )


----------



## Broadway

julius said:


> Well thats got to be the easiest 44-point gap close in a while...
> 
> Pitty I wasn't on it (IB )




Could you ecplain that please Julius?

From what I see we opened at 5610, which is about 170 points above the gap to yesterday's high, and about 205 points above yesterday's 430pm close.

Are you referring to a gap from a long time ago?


----------



## Trembling Hand

What about this. 

I FAT FINGERED it, with full size, without a bracket order...lost half my days stop before I realized I was long rather than short!!!!! Haven't done that one for a while!!


----------



## julius

Broadway said:


> Could you ecplain that please Julius?
> 
> From what I see we opened at 5610, which is about 170 points above the gap to yesterday's high, and about 205 points above yesterday's 430pm close.
> 
> Are you referring to a gap from a long time ago?




Broadway, I'm just talking about down move of 44 points off the open.


----------



## Trembling Hand

Bloody hell!! CHOPPED TO BITS today.


----------



## julius

story of my life :


----------



## AMR

I feel your irritation: I let a 14 point USD/CHF scalp turn into a 28 pip loss since I buggered my stop recently.


----------



## julius

bloody margins are still broken


----------



## Trembling Hand

julius said:


> bloody margins are still broken




Nah! All fine I think.


----------



## Trembling Hand

julius said:


> bloody margins are still broken




You will have to trade 10 lots instead of 20


----------



## Freddo

If there is no gap tomorrow I'll be looking for to short the SPI once the low of today breaks.


----------



## julius

Hey Guess What They Still Haven't Fixed The Bloody Margins Ain't That Swell


----------



## Trembling Hand

julius said:


> Hey Guess What They Still Haven't Fixed The Bloody Margins Ain't That Swell




You should call IB or start a trouble ticket in account mgn.

Mon & Tues they needed full margin for the first hour but I could still trade. Have had no problems besides that!


----------



## acouch

morning all
today's road map
have a great day and good trades
ac


----------



## Freddo

Freddo said:


> If there is no gap tomorrow I'll be looking for to short the SPI once the low of today breaks.




Todays the day I was looking for, I'm now short one


----------



## onemore

Freddo,

Whats the golden moving average?


----------



## acouch

good morning all

today's road map
have a great day, and good trades
ac


----------



## Trembling Hand

Fat lady hasn't yelped yet but boy today is looking like an Ugly Bearish pattern. 

Hope you were able to hang on to your short during the open today Freddo.


----------



## Freddo

Trembling Hand said:


> Fat lady hasn't yelped yet but boy today is looking like an Ugly Bearish pattern.
> 
> Hope you were able to hang on to your short during the open today Freddo.




Sing Fat Lady Sing !!!!

I'm still short TH, I actually entered my first short yesterday 8th April when the low of the 7th was broken and took added to my position today.


----------



## Freddo

onemore said:


> Freddo,
> 
> Whats the golden moving average?




onemore,  This is not a copy of my working chart but Golden Movign Average
is something I am exploring.

As the name suggests it a moving average weighted using the golden ratio.

This is how it was explained to me
 Take 20 day moving average multiply it by 1.618 to get 12.36 (round to 12)
subtract 12.36 from 20 to get 7.64 round to 8.

Now calculate the MA for 12 and 8 add together and divide by 2.

Still trying to work out if it's useful !!

My EOD trading chart looks like this


----------



## acouch

good morning all
today's road map
have a great day, and good trades
ac


----------



## acouch

good morning all
today's road map
havea great day, and good trades
ac


----------



## acouch

good morning all
Monday's road map
have a great weekend
ac


----------



## Joolean

Hi all,

Can I ask what tools you use to live trade the SPI? I'm just curious as to whether you use one charting program like eSignal to monitor the market and another to trade it or do you just use your broker's platform?

If two separate programs, do they line up ok in real time? I'm with CMC and don't particularly like its charts but I don't imagine it would line up with esignal data anyway.

I use Amibroker for testing but am pretty sure you can't trade the SPI with it. I'm trying out NinjaTrader because AB doesn't have market profile but don't know if you can trade the spi with that either.

I'm an eod trader and don't intend live trading futures for months but am just trying to work out what tools I will need to use so I can start on the right track.

Any advice appreciated. Cheers,
Julian.


----------



## acouch

Morning joolean,

the cheapest set up for trading spi or other markets via broker is the combo of
www.interactivebrokers.com
www.sierrachart.com
www.bracket-trader.com

i also use ig and cmc sometimes, and i have all my charts set up the same way,

cfd's dont exactly follow the fut to a tee..eg: movment..but close enough,
and i tend to watch the fut first.

but the main thing in trading that you must be comfortable with your tools that you choose to use .i have also knocked back brokers if there trading platform doesnt suit me.
like everything..it is trial and error till you find what suits.
have a great day
ac


----------



## julius

J,

I have live traded the SPI using Amibroker and Interactive Brokers TWS...it works fine.

I'm using Fib Trader now with IB data feed and it is very very good. It does all of the intraday & EOD charting that I use.

I counldn't afford to buy it so I rent at 45USD per month.


----------



## Trembling Hand

Joolean said:


> If two separate programs, do they line up ok in real time? I'm with CMC and don't particularly like its charts but I don't imagine it would line up with esignal data anyway.




The problem with CMC charts is they include all the overnight data. That may or may not be of any use to you. Depends 

Also I think the open high low close values on a daily chart aren't going to be what 99% of SPI traders are using. 

AND the actual values are some arbitrary number that they peg to the SPI. If the SPI is 5500 the CMC value is 5467. Just a bit weird  as round numbers are of some value/attraction.

AND you don't get Volume, Depth or order book.


----------



## AMR

What a boring day on the SPI today. I'm going over to watch the HSI.

I think the CMC platform is ok for learning but I really do wish they would let us place stops simultaneously with orders and give us a better way to adjust stops. Currently contemplating a switch to IB.


----------



## Trembling Hand

Incredibly boring, and hard to trade 

Wouldn't be surprised to see it up close higher in the afternoons all this week. Just to annoy the Bears.


----------



## acouch

good morning all
today's road map
have a great day and good trading
ac


----------



## acouch

good morning all
today's road map
have a great day, and good trading
ac


----------



## Joolean

Thanks for your feedback guys. Much appreciated.

I'll look into the IB/Amibroker setup.

Do you guys generally place limit/stop orders or do you just wait for the right time and hit buy/sell for market orders? I.e. Do you know where your orders are going to go ahead of time via s/r or just play it as it unfolds?

Lastly, would any of you care to comment on the differences between the SPI and the US index futures in terms of behaviour? Is the main difference just volume or do you find the SPI more erratic and less pattern friendly?
I'm studying market profile and all charts are US based so am trying to work out how relevant they are to our SPI.

The chart is the daily range from 2006-2007. The last bar just shows there were ~20 days with > 150pt daily range.


----------



## Freddo

Looking for another short tomorrow


----------



## Freddo

Joolean said:


> Thanks for your feedback guys. Much appreciated.
> 
> I'll look into the IB/Amibroker setup.
> 
> Do you guys generally place limit/stop orders or do you just wait for the right time and hit buy/sell for market orders? I.e. Do you know where your orders are going to go ahead of time via s/r or just play it as it unfolds?




Hi Jooelan,

I use Tradestation for intraday scalping. I typically only scalp the morning and from what I can tell from TH's posts he uses a similar method simple patterns and Depth of Market. I don't use limit or on stop orders for scalps. I don't even use a stop loss, takes too long a trade is often seconds 2 or 3 minutes max for my scalps. So this is played as it unfolds.

My scalping is really intense I don't know how TH does it, I find after around 3 hours I am so charged up I start chasing my own tail!

For my EOD I use Metastock and I do place limit, on stop and stop loss orders. Usually hold for 2 to 3 days. I often use Sycom to take a profit.
This is definitely a case of knowing where the market needs to be well ahead of time.

I am currently trying to port/convert my Metastock and Tradestation code to 
Amibroker.

Regards

Freddo


----------



## Edwood

hi Joolean - I use CMC for charts & IB for execution, only because I came from CMC and am familiar with their charts so haven't bothered going into detail with anything else.  The price doesn't usually match up b/w SPI and CMC's Aussie 200 - but the price action is pretty much exactly the same which is all that matters.  I tried Amibroker with IB but found the erratic backfilling too annoying

Lately I've been spending most of my time with FTSE (Z) - the spreads are usually only 0.5 while SPI has been getting up to 4pts at times.  FTSE opening 90 mins is worth a look

cheers


----------



## Trembling Hand

Edwood you should give Ninja Trader a go. Its Free and neat yet has every thing. I can't believe you still us CMC charts your missing volume and getting all the SYCOM gumf.

Joolean I use Bracket orders for all my trades. Entries are 50/50 Limit vs Market. 70/30 Limit vs Market on exits. I guess it depends on your target and the market. If your looking for 25 or more points there doesn't seem to be much advantage in trying to get filled on Limit you might as well just hit the Market. But if your looking for 5 points then working the Bid/Ask spread is going to be 30% of your profit. Yet I still hit the market 50% of the time. Which I'm always trying to reduce. My stats are 60% of wining trades have some sort of Adverse Movement against me. But most of the Bigger wins are Market entries.


----------



## Edwood

Trembling Hand said:


> Edwood you should give Ninja Trader a go. Its Free and neat yet has every thing. I can't believe you still us CMC charts your missing volume and getting all the SYCOM gumf.




I did download Ninja TH but it had some bad reviews so I didn't take any time getting to know it - will take a decent look at it


----------



## Trembling Hand

Edwood said:


> I did download Ninja TH but it had some bad reviews so I didn't take any time getting to know it - will take a decent look at it




Download the latest version. Its got some added features for non US markets.


----------



## AMR

What a great opening today, pity CMC kept telling me I could not trade right on the opening due to my order being too small . Anyone else had this?

Trembling Hand, how do you manage your stops?


----------



## Joolean

Thanks again all.

I have read a lot of complaints on forums about IB but mostly due to their data not being actual tick data. Have always read that eSignal are better because of this, though more expensive. Is anyone using both and do the prices match up?

Are IB a cfd market maker like CMC or do you trade the actual spi with them? I.e. minimum trade size ~$140k or whatever a contract costs at the moment.

Amibroker is excellent for systems testing and analysis Freddo though it does have its limitations. Have used it for a couple of years after coming from wealth lab so let me know if I can help at all, though the AB Yahoo forum is very good.

TH, I downloaded Ninja trader a week ago and have not been able to import my historical SPI data as a future. It always comes in as stock data. I have two years of tick data from TickData.  Can you offer any advice on this? Have tried lots of things.

For Freddo and TH, did you guys start off scalping as many trades as you are now because that was your system, or did you modify your system over time so that you could take more trades?

Regards,
Julian


----------



## professor_frink

Joolean said:


> Thanks again all.
> 
> I have read a lot of complaints on forums about IB but mostly due to their data not being actual tick data. Have always read that eSignal are better because of this, though more expensive. Is anyone using both and do the prices match up?
> 
> Are IB a cfd market maker like CMC or do you trade the actual spi with them? I.e. minimum trade size ~$140k or whatever a contract costs at the moment.
> 
> Amibroker is excellent for systems testing and analysis Freddo though it does have its limitations. Have used it for a couple of years after coming from wealth lab so let me know if I can help at all, though the AB Yahoo forum is very good.
> 
> TH, I downloaded Ninja trader a week ago and have not been able to import my historical SPI data as a future. It always comes in as stock data. I have two years of tick data from TickData.  Can you offer any advice on this? Have tried lots of things.
> 
> For Freddo and TH, did you guys start off scalping as many trades as you are now because that was your system, or did you modify your system over time so that you could take more trades?
> 
> Regards,
> Julian




Forums are full of people whinging about IB, I wouldn't read too much into that. I find their datafeed fine for intraday trading.

If you want to find out a little more on how they do their data, have a read of this - 

http://www.elitetrader.com/vb/showthread.php?s=&threadid=53426

There are a couple of links in that thread that will explain things a little further.

IB are a broker, not a MM. You'll be trading the SPI with them.


----------



## Trembling Hand

Joolean said:


> TH, I downloaded Ninja trader a week ago and have not been able to import my historical SPI data as a future. It always comes in as stock data. I have two years of tick data from TickData.  Can you offer any advice on this? Have tried lots of things.




Not sure I know what you mean about stock vs futures in NT?



Joolean said:


> For Freddo and TH, did you guys start off scalping as many trades as you are now because that was your system, or did you modify your system over time so that you could take more trades?




Slowly moved towards scalping  from intraday position trading.



AMR said:


> Trembling Hand, how do you manage your stops?




What do you mean manage? I have bracket orders in IB booktrader or ZLT that have a target limit and a Stop Market. But will take myself out lots of times before it hits my stop.


----------



## macca

Hi AMR,

yes, I copped it with CMC too, software glitch I suppose.

Hopefully we are back in business tomorrow


----------



## Freddo

Joolean said:


> For Freddo and TH, did you guys start off scalping as many trades as you are now because that was your system, or did you modify your system over time so that you could take more trades?
> 
> Regards,
> Julian




Hi Julian,

I used to swing trade off a 4 minute chart. 
Overtime I started watching DOM more and the most appropriate way of describing I guess is I picked up old style ticker tape reading skills.

I scalp best in the mornings and especally if  it is a Gap day 

I am no where near as active scalper as TH.

Regards
Freddo


----------



## Freddo

No trades today.

Too busy to scalp, no entry for my EOD.
Still looking for a short.


----------



## treefrog

waiting to close short, enter long - target is green arrow zone


----------



## Joolean

Cheers Freddo,

it must be a pretty intense few hours. What do you mean by a gap day?

TH, in NT, everything is either a stock, future, index or currency.  When I import my historical tick data from a text file, it always imports it as a new stock  instead of a future.  The difference being that you can't specify the point and tick values on a stock.  I have posted the issue on the ninja trader forum.

Can someone tell me if I've got this right.  With CMC, each tick is $1 whereas on the spi it is $25.  If the spi is currently at 5000 points, a single contract would cost $125k with the margin for this ~$6k?
To wield the same position size with CMC which has a margin of 1%, you would only require $1250. Each point move would then be worth $25 just as with the spi.

Is that right?


----------



## Freddo

Joolean said:


> Cheers Freddo,
> 
> it must be a pretty intense few hours. What do you mean by a gap day?
> 
> Can someone tell me if I've got this right.  With CMC, each tick is $1 whereas on the spi it is $25.  If the spi is currently at 5000 points, a single contract would cost $125k with the margin for this ~$6k?
> To wield the same position size with CMC which has a margin of 1%, you would only require $1250. Each point move would then be worth $25 just as with the spi.




It's intense but I love pressure !

By Gap day i simply mean the open is either higher then the high of the previous bar or lower then the low of the previous bar , so i should really say a Gap Open Day since if the gap closes then there is nolonger a gap between the 2 bars.

RE: your question about the SPI, the ASX lists margin amounts but brokers often state their own. I have heard current ranges of $6,500 to $12,500.
Overnight positions have the higher margin levels.

Don't know anything about CMC sorry

Regards
Freddo


----------



## treefrog

entry long at green arrow on price after confirmation that downtrend on momentum had stopped.
hold trade now until up momentum breaks or another fib target reached


----------



## Edwood

Joolean said:


> Can someone tell me if I've got this right.  With CMC, each tick is $1 whereas on the spi it is $25.  If the spi is currently at 5000 points, a single contract would cost $125k with the margin for this ~$6k?
> To wield the same position size with CMC which has a margin of 1%, you would only require $1250. Each point move would then be worth $25 just as with the spi.  Is that right?




not sure of the exact details of Aussie CFD's but it sounds about right Joolean.

I trade UK spreadbet with CMC which is similar to CFD.  Stakes start from 1 pound per point with margin 30 pounds per point x stake.  So for me to trade a comparable position size as the SPI with CMC - i.e., around 10pounds per point - x the 30ppt margin requirement is 300quid margin.  or about AUD$700.  Compare that to IB's SPI contract which requires around $6,200 in hours and goes up to around $10k thereabouts out of hours

CMC is pretty good value - but its cheap for a reason   Unlike IB they don'always t have to make a price, at turns you'll suddenly find you can't get a fill, in fast markets fills can be unreliable & sometimes you'll see dodgy spikes to take out stops.  But if you can make money there then you'll probably be fine going direct access.

Personally I use IB intra-day for the benefits of direct access, faster execution, accurate stops & tighter spreads with no skew.  But I still use CMC out of hours because its so much cheaper.  Not sure what the CFD spreads are like out of hours but CMC spreadbet is always 4pts - unlike SPI which can get up to 10+.  & the margin reqt is only $700 v's $10k


----------



## Trembling Hand

Joolean said:


> TH, in NT, everything is either a stock, future, index or currency.  When I import my historical tick data from a text file, it always imports it as a new stock  instead of a future.  The difference being that you can't specify the point and tick values on a stock.  I have posted the issue on the ninja trader forum.




You need to set up the contract first in the Instrument Manager. Then import the data.


----------



## treefrog

entry long last night at 5488 on 50% fib retrace level - this bounce petered out with this morning's open - was also the 38% fib bounce up after yesterday/last night's run down
exit and reverse short at 5505 - should have quit long at the fib level as it was waiting there with today's open to come
anyway running short now with favourable price action but momentum starting mid stream is not so good - best if can reverse in O/B, O/S areas


----------



## treefrog

fib tatrgets this leg
A 5450 - got
B-5400 - looks ok
C-5310 - previous low


----------



## Joolean

Thanks TH,
I got it sorted.

Freddo, what is the benefit of a gap day?

Cheers,
Julian.


----------



## treefrog

ending this little session of swing trading (its the weekend so am taking my last lot off the tabel)
move south stalled and reversed at the second fib target of 5400 (first lot of three off at first target of 5450, second lot off at second target of 5400.
but it then retraced back up to fib 38% (5447)
as mentioned earlier staying in the market here was without indication of momentum trend so things are less assured.
took last lot off 5430
moving to fourex in an hour or few when europe opens


----------



## Freddo

Freddo said:


> No trades today.
> 
> Too busy to scalp, no entry for my EOD.
> Still looking for a short.




Got my short as per previous post.


----------



## Freddo

Joolean said:


> Freddo, what is the benefit of a gap day?
> 
> Cheers,
> Julian.




I seem to read DOM better and therefore scalp much better on where the day opens with a GAP.

Just a simple case of when there is a Gap at the open I seem to be able to judge how the market should react. 

I simply study the EOD chart and try and picture how is everyone reading this? Where will stop loss order and new entry orders be?
Then I get up early and check what happened on Sycom.
If it has a big move and we are likely to open with a big gap i Love it!.
I have slightly different approaches depending if the Gap is with the trend or against however mostly it just having a suspicion where the morning will go and watch the DOM for it unfolding and scalp it.

Regards

Freddo


----------



## Trembling Hand

Good high volume punch up going on today. May see an unusual large range this week. Oh sorry unusual in the up sense?


----------



## Trembling Hand

Boy oh Boy there was some angry buyers today. Don't tell me I didn't warn you


----------



## Edwood

strong day alright TH.  imagine a few opening-gap-faders were driving it up today.  gap above from the 17th closed too


----------



## Trembling Hand

Edwood said:


> strong day alright TH.  imagine a few opening-gap-faders were driving it up today.  gap above from the 17th closed too




I got the feel today that the big players where in and in strong. Not the normal day trading locals but the Boys that swing hard, long and strong if ya know what I mean.


----------



## Edwood

Aus has a lot of catching up to do too - still around 20% off the 2007 highs - compared to say FTSE which is only 11% off its high


----------



## treefrog

Edwood said:


> Aus has a lot of catching up to do too - still around 20% off the 2007 highs - compared to say FTSE which is only 11% off its high




not sure of your logic there Ed - maybe the Oz mkt should be down more (percentage) because it ran harder for 4years


----------



## treefrog

short after initial move to retrace this morning looking for 38% but offered another 50% - still short 1/3 for possibility of last gasp down to 62% unless momentum trend breaks beforehand


----------



## Edwood

treefrog said:


> not sure of your logic there Ed - maybe the Oz mkt should be down more (percentage) because it ran harder for 4years



I'm talking change in less than 12 months tho TF, not 4 yrs


----------



## treefrog

and exits the last lot because momentum failed and insufficient head (oversold) to push long - at least not enough on this timeframe - could always switch timescale to keep trading


----------



## acouch

good morning all
today's road map
have a great day and good trades
ac


----------



## treefrog

agree acouch - that 5530 zone seems to be getting more important in the bull/bear thingy
no momentum on my hourchart so looks like 5min today if anything - no clear  indication from US and UK o'night
oz market should be interested in today's inflation numbers


----------



## acouch

hi tree frog,
there is a gap fill down at 5493 to be aware of.
ac


----------



## Trembling Hand

treefrog have you ran you system against cash market only data? Just wondering as I find the SYCO(M) data so thin and noisy its only value is mild interest in the highs, lows and of course close?


----------



## treefrog

Trembling Hand said:


> treefrog have you ran you system against cash market only data? Just wondering as I find the SYCO(M) data so thin and noisy its only value is mild interest in the highs, lows and of course close?




nope TH haven't
this is thin and one of the reasons I mostly use 1hr charts - often do pay extra than quoted when cashing out
much more hurtful on the 2/5min scale where they obviously over-run the market to take out your stops if you are silly enough to set them
bottom line is I have extended periods when I don't trade for various reasons and am reluctant to commit to another paid service - ya get what ya pay for and this one is free - pay for a separate forex feed though with o/s provider


----------



## Edwood

feels just like the good old days today  - grinding it up on bad news


----------



## acouch

morning all
todays road map
have a great day, and good trades
ac


----------



## treefrog

*y'day* mkt open zone momentum was in neutral, hence the up/down arrows meaning no clear indication
small kick down (red dash line) was just noise and any trade needed to be off the 50% fib level where it was sitting
momentum UP established after open so don't trade short before this is broken
did not trade this system yesterday due to poor indication at open

*today *clear we had another (blue) fib run and retrace levels - 5600 confluence area significant (yellow 23% and blue 50%) giving S/R zone agrees with acouch roadmap above
momentum down signal in tact this morning plus break in yesterday's price uptrend = OK to trade down this morning but not up before momentum breaks

distracted, so post is hour behind action atm - down signals still good but too late to enter now (higher risk due to less momentum)


----------



## Trembling Hand

Will be interesting to see if the pattern of the last few weeks hold for end of week.

Its been down hard in the morning and run back up in the arvo.


----------



## professor_frink

Trembling Hand said:


> Will be interesting to see if the pattern of the last few weeks hold for end of week.
> 
> Its been down hard in the morning and run back up in the arvo.




nikkei and kospi are starting to find a bit of momo on the long side this morning leading up to the HK open. The only thing I can think of that might throw a spanner in the works for a rally this arvo is if we get a little bit of profit taking ahead of the long weekend- the recent run up has been pretty good, and the markets aren't exactly stable so some of the longs might wanna lock in some profit


----------



## acouch

morning all,
just a bigger picture of the spi, for you to have a look at.
we will see ..
ac


----------



## acouch

spi road map  for Monday,

as spi closed today
Anzac Day R.I.P
ac


----------



## Joolean

Hi All,

I have some noob questions on the spi I've had trouble finding elsewhere.

When you purchase a spi futures contract, is that converted into the physical purchase of shares in the XJO? Is this also why the futures often trade higher than the underlying index, because of the cost of carry? I.e. The financing costs of purchasing those shares.

How is the value of the index calculated? If a point is worth $25, and let's say the index is at 5000 (=$125k), what does that figure actually represent? Is it somehow related to the total value of all the stocks in the index?

Cheers,
Julian.


----------



## acouch

Good morning all
forgot about sycom last night..so here is a continuation
of Mondays road map
enjoy your weekend
ac


----------



## Freddo

I'm still looking for a short  opportunity when we get around 5554



Trembling Hand said:


> Boy oh Boy there was some angry buyers today. Don't tell me I didn't warn you




TH Any chance of more info by what you mean about angry buyers? and why you believe this?


----------



## Joolean

Scrap that. I've found answers to most of my questions. 

No they're not converted into physical shares.
Index value is total market cap divided by constituents, which I assume is the number of outstanding shares.

Don't know why a point is worth $25.
I thought the difference between the underlying index and the futures price had something to do with the cost of carry but I don't get that anymore because the SPI is cash settled.

Don't know if any of you follow Steenbarger but he gave a webinar on market delta last week. The first 20mins or so though is on the process of learning to trade which I found quite interesting. I know you guys are probably beyond this phase but maybe you'll get something out of it. Unfortunately the audio is pretty bad.
http://ioamt.com/media/videos/brett/brettapril24/brettapril24.html

Cheers,
Julian.


----------



## Trembling Hand

Joolean said:


> Don't know why a point is worth $25.
> I thought the difference between the underlying index and the futures price had something to do with the cost of carry but I don't get that anymore because the SPI is cash settled.




All futures have a multiplier. If its a commodity it will be a physical amount. Like gold 100 ounce for the main or 50 for the mini. An index has to have a multiply to give it a standard value. That is all. All index Futures just have an arbitrary multiplier somewhere between $5 and $50 per tick.

If you have to have a figure to liken it to the index it looks like this,
Spi value (5500) X $25 = $137500 Which is equal to $137500 of stocks weighted as per the XJO index.


----------



## Trembling Hand

Freddo said:


> TH Any chance of more info by what you mean about angry buyers? and why you believe this?




Its been a while, a very long while, since we have had a Large range day UP on Volume. 32,000 traded on an up day!  15,000 increase in Open interest.

I was getting fills all day 1 to 2 ticks above ask no problem. Why because the buyers didn't give a toss about getting filled a tick or two to their advantage. 

I don't think we are going straight up but will be on the lookout for some more pushing.


----------



## acouch

good morning all
today's road map
have a great day and good trades
ac


----------



## acouch

good morning all
today's road map
have a great day, and good trades
ac


----------



## treefrog

long today off the 50% fib support level
system not giving great signals in this range bound area last few days,
but have strong S/R levels to add to the price and momentum indications


----------



## Edwood

lovely opening gap fill hey - don't come much better than that

probably bumble along until FOMC now


----------



## acouch

good morning all
today's road map
hjave a great day, and good trades
ac


----------



## Edwood

pretty choppy, not much fun today.  looking forward to getting out of this consolidation that we've been in the last few days


----------



## acouch

good morning all
today's road map
have a great day, and good trades
ac


----------



## Edwood

off & away!  thank gawd for that...


----------



## acouch

good morning all
Monday's road map
have a great weekend
ac


----------



## acouch

just a update of the spi eod chart..
todays high was 85..84 marked on the chart as strong resistance..
as you can see, once over that next strong resistance is at 
6266
good trades, and have a great day
ac


----------



## acouch

good morning all
today's road map
have a great day, and good trades
ac


----------



## Broadway

I could be reading this wrong, but looks like someone smart picked up 700 shorts today..

And as Europe leads us below the 5700 spi support level, these shorts are looking good.


----------



## Freddo

Broadway said:


> I could be reading this wrong, but looks like someone smart picked up 700 shorts today..
> 
> And as Europe leads us below the 5700 spi support level, these shorts are looking good.




I have had a signal to get ready to go short for a couple of days now.
Today I went short 1 contract certainly not 700


----------



## Trembling Hand

Broadway said:


> I could be reading this wrong, but looks like someone smart picked up 700 shorts today..
> 
> And as Europe leads us below the 5700 spi support level, these shorts are looking good.




That was a block trade more likely crossing of hands rather than a new position.


----------



## Freddo

Freddo said:


> I have had a signal to get ready to go short for a couple of days now.
> Today I went short 1 contract




Out on Sycom last night when my stop loss got hit.
Will be looking to scalp off the open

Have a great day


----------



## acouch

good morning all
toady's road map
havea great day and good trades
ac


----------



## acouch

good morning all
today's road map
have a great day and good trades
ac


----------



## treefrog

on the daily, using UT bars, looking quite bearish
evening star top followed by bearish engulfing a few days later


----------



## Trembling Hand

Looks a little better now with that bounce.


----------



## julius

support and resistance...


----------



## acouch

good morning all
today's road map
have a great day, and good trades
ac


----------



## acouch

good morning all,
todays road map
have a great day, and good trades
ac


----------



## acouch

good morning all
today's road map, not much difference today,
as lis is still the same at 5850.
have a great day and good trades
ac

ps. lis = line in sand


----------



## ddean

Hey acouch

I know its probably a bit of a noob question but could you (or somebody else) please give a bit of insight on how to read these roadmaps and how they are used to determine possible trades.

Thanks

Dean


----------



## acouch

Hi Dean,

lis/line in sand tells you whether long/short

above lis which is 5850.today you would be long, and taking shorts only for scalps..
below lis you would be looking for shorts, unless scalping for a long..

the nos marked on the chart give you support/resistance as well..

so if you take a scalp in the other direction, quite often it can be a change in the trend for the day, but it must x the lis for trend change .

hope this helps explain it a little,
have a great day
ac


----------



## ddean

Ahh....Ok so the LIS is similar to a pivot point. What sort of software do you use to get these screens?


----------



## acouch

no software to speak of dean, i set these charts at the start of the contract, and maintain them every morning, and takes me about 10/15 mins ..
the platform i use for those charts is
www.sierracharts.com
which is feed by ib..
hope that this is of some help
enjoy your evening
ac


----------



## acouch

good morning all
todays road map
have a great day, and good trades
ac


----------



## acouch

good morning all
today's road map
have a great day and good trades
ac


----------



## acouch

good morning all
Monday's road map
have a great weekend
ac


----------



## zenin

acouch, No Roadmaps for the last few days? Hope everything is o.k. with You? Zenin


----------



## zenin

Is it just me (newbie), our was this downside expected for today? Just when i thought support was found, BANG!!! Down again and again!!


----------



## ddean

Hey acouch

Thanks for your replies so far. I will pick your brain a little more as I am trying to get my head around strategies for intraday trading the SPI.

-I notice you use CCI. What timeframes do you use and what would normally trigger a potential trade?

-What sort of time frames do you trade the SPI generally?

Thanks in advance

Dean


----------



## korrupt_1

zenin said:


> Is it just me (newbie), our was this downside expected for today? Just when i thought support was found, BANG!!! Down again and again!!




i was expecting this downside today. usually downsides are more savage after a good strong performance the week before.

At these levels and the rate of gain lately, glad to see this pullback.

I'm hoping it would get back to as low as 5800 where real support should be found. Longs from there should be a good entry and R:R


----------



## acouch

zenin, i didnt post one today, as i thought that most where
over the road maps..as some don't want charts..as per oil
and as that is what i do.. i didn't want to upset the boat.
i will post again tomorrow
ac


----------



## acouch

ddean

there are two cci on chart..one is set at 50 the other is at 14..
the x if the +/- 100 will trigger a trade..

a 10tic and a 50 volume chart work well on the spi..
enjoy your evening
ac


----------



## zenin

Thanks again for your feedback.


----------



## Ben

acouch said:


> ddean
> 
> there are two cci on chart..one is set at 50 the other is at 14..
> the x if the +/- 100 will trigger a trade..
> 
> a 10tic and a 50 volume chart work well on the spi..
> enjoy your evening
> ac




hi acouch, im a bit new and trying to develop my own strategies intra day trading SPI, would you mind explaining 'the x if the +/- 100 will trigger a trade', is it to do with the level of the CCI?


----------



## acouch

yes Ben,

the cci 14 x 100 is for more aggressive players,
but a safe trade is the 100x of the  50 cci.
take time to study..
enjoy your evening
ac


----------



## acouch

good morning all,
today's road map
have a great day and good trades
ac


----------



## acouch

bigger picture on the daily chart, to have a look at.
ac


----------



## professor_frink

Ben said:


> hi acouch, im a bit new and trying to develop my own strategies intra day trading SPI, would you mind explaining 'the x if the +/- 100 will trigger a trade', is it to do with the level of the CCI?




Hi Ben, welcome to ASF

If you want some information on the CCI, have a look at some of the files at this link - 

http://www.trading-naked.com/Articles_and_Reprints.htm

about half way down the page is where you'll find them.

Quite a bit of good information on that site for anyone just getting started and looking for ideas


----------



## julius

Hey Freddo - Hope you got on this one, looks like your kind of trade


----------



## acouch

good morning all
today's road map
have a great day, and good trades
ac


----------



## acouch

good morning all
today's road map
have a great day, and good trades
ac


----------



## acouch

just playing around with some nos..

1184 has always been rather important to the spi..so lets take 1184x.786=932+1184=2116-6880=4764..on my spi eod map i have target at 4734.. close enough on the bigger picture..will be interesting to see if it comes off.
eod spi is above if you scroll back..
just something to watch for perhaps october..we will see..
but traders only trade one day at a time 
ac


----------



## acouch

good morning all
Monday's road map
have a great weekend and take care
ac


----------



## nat

Hi acouch that is certainly a play on numbers willl be watching in earnest to c if comes true ,who wouldve ever thought we might get into the 4000s again ,always best to have open mind and c where the market takes us ,if down to there it is then so be it .Thanx for putting up the daily charts i for one find them most helpful. Nathan









acouch said:


> just playing around with some nos..
> 
> 1184 has always been rather important to the spi..so lets take 1184x.786=932+1184=2116-6880=4764..on my spi eod map i have target at 4734.. close enough on the bigger picture..will be interesting to see if it comes off.
> eod spi is above if you scroll back..
> just something to watch for perhaps october..we will see..
> but traders only trade one day at a time
> ac


----------



## acouch

most welcome nat,
yes she is a tricky little thing..
always good to have a open mind, and play what you
see for the day
good trades
ac


----------



## korrupt_1

Was trading with IG Markets and noticed this large spike at around 3:20EST on the Aussie 200 CFD.

Didn't cause me trouble, but was wondering if this was a data glitch or something more sinister?


----------



## professor_frink

korrupt_1 said:


> Was trading with IG Markets and noticed this large spike at around 3:20EST on the Aussie 200 CFD.
> 
> Didn't cause me trouble, but was wondering if this was a data glitch or something more sinister?




Looks like a data glich, nothing like that on the futures.


----------



## zenin

professor_frink said:


> Looks like a data glich, nothing like that on the futures.




I was about the ask the same question, a really huge spike via IGM Aussie 200.


----------



## Trembling Hand

korrupt_1 said:


> Was trading with IG Markets and noticed this large spike at around 3:20EST on the Aussie 200 CFD.
> 
> Didn't cause me trouble, but was wondering if this was a data glitch or something more sinister?



Now that is interesting. Would be very interested to see if that stopped out anyone?????? And if they would scratch trades that were stopped out because it is obviously a bad tick.


----------



## korrupt_1

Trembling Hand said:


> Now that is interesting. Would be very interested to see if that stopped out anyone?????? And if they would scratch trades that were stopped out because it is obviously a bad tick.




Seems like it wasn't just a SINGLE bad tick, but a few of them. Lasted probably for a minute?


----------



## Trembling Hand

korrupt_1 said:


> Seems like it wasn't just a SINGLE bad tick, but a few of them. Lasted probably for a minute?




Send them an email to get an answer for that. Would be very interested in their response as to how come it popped 30 points.


----------



## ddean

FYI I was short on the 200 when this happened (with IG markets). This spike should have triggered my stop but it didn't. I was able to exit the trade for a nice profit at the end of the session.

Dean


----------



## acouch

morning all
today's road map
have a great day, and good trades
ac


----------



## zenin

acouch said:


> morning all
> today's road map
> have a great day, and good trades
> ac




Thanks again acouch, keep those roadmaps coming for us all : )


----------



## acouch

Today's road map,
very little difference today from yesterday,
have a great day, and good trades
ac


----------



## acouch

good morning,
just a updated eod chart on the spi, to keep you in
the loop.
ac


----------



## acouch

good morning all
today's road map
have a great day, and good trades
ac


----------



## acouch

morning all
spi road map for today
have a great day, and good trades
ac


----------



## acouch

good morning all
Monday's road map
once again it is like a re run of Friday's
have a great weekend,and take care
ac


----------



## Mike Trader

Hi  acouch ,what is that method you are using,looks like Gann or is it something else?Cheers Mike


----------



## acouch

Evening Mike,
no it is Andrews Medianline, which on most software
packages it is called Pitchforks.
hope this is of some help
ac


----------



## Mike Trader

acouch said:


> Evening Mike,
> no it is Andrews Medianline, which on most software
> packages it is called Pitchforks.
> hope this is of some help
> ac




Thanks a couch ,I know about Andrews pitch fork,but is the road map one with the mesh style grid also part of the Andrews indicator? Cheers Mike


----------



## acouch

Morning Mike
road map is Andrews extended.
have a great day
ac


----------



## acouch

good morning all
today's road map
have a great day and good trades
ac


----------



## acouch

good morning all
today's road map
have a great day and good trades
ac


----------



## Broadway

When we hit bottom, can people shout out! thx


----------



## acouch

hahaha  no worries 
ac


----------



## acouch

good morning all
today's road map
have a great day. and good trades
ac


----------



## Broadway

Asia's going crazy, hsi, stw, k200, sgxnk all rallying strongly.

Spi is ofcourse anchored badly by BHP, you would think asia could pull the spi up for an afternoon rally?


----------



## acouch

good morning all
today's road map
have a great day, and good trades
ac


----------



## Euler

I have corrupted SPI data (day session) for 28/5/08

Could someone please post the O,H,L,C & Vol for this day.

TIA


----------



## acouch

05/28/2008	5730.00..5738.00..5637.00..5672.00..	21314	239310

volume is not right on this data, as almac seem to have a different way of
calculating it, but rest is ok
o/h/l/c/ vol. oi..
ac


----------



## Euler

acouch said:


> 05/28/2008	5730.00..5738.00..5637.00..5672.00..	21314	239310
> 
> volume is not right on this data, as almac seem to have a different way of
> calculating it, but rest is ok
> o/h/l/c/ vol. oi..
> ac




Cheers acouch ... at least now the chart has meaning .... instead of falling down to 0,0,0,0 for that day


----------



## acouch

morning all,
this chart is for Tuesday, as Monday market is
closed here for Queen's birthday..
so we will see how it goes..
have a great weekend, and take care
ac


----------



## acouch

this is the third chart for the  eod spi 
thought i would update it for those interested..
she was in trouble on Friday when she couldn't take out Wednesday's high
of 5639..and put in another lower dble top..
we will see what Tuesday brings..
have a great day
ac


----------



## Euler

Watching closely level @

   *5523
           5502
**5481
           5467
   *5453

as bounds for today


----------



## acouch

good morning all
today's road map
have a great day, and good trades
ac


----------



## Euler

Watching level @

   *5480
           5456
**5431
           5396
   *5361

as bounds for today


----------



## acouch

good morning all
trying to upload road map.
but it keeps failing..will keep trying 
ac


----------



## acouch

ok, as i have to go out this morning at 8.30, and i still cant post chart..theses are the nos for the next 24hrs..i will try tonight and see if it is working.
ac

LIS= 5383

upside nos..5402..5416..5434..5449..

downside...5360..5334..5311..5286..5261..

have a great day, and good trades
ac


market closed at 5370


----------



## Euler

Watching level @

   *5445
           5424
**5402
           5366
   *5329

as bounds for today


----------



## Trembling Hand

Euler said:


> Watching level @
> 
> *5329
> 
> as bounds for today




Love it! You working these from simple support resistance (old highs/lows)?


----------



## Euler

Trembling Hand said:


> Love it! You working these from simple support resistance (old highs/lows)?




Yes TH .... have looked for more complexity in my previous trading life, but in my return have decided to re-assess my style using the kiss principle.


----------



## Euler

Got a feeling it may want to test 5260-70 range before too long .....
espec since it couldn't make inroads >5400-10 when it had the chance


----------



## Euler

Trembling Hand said:


> Love it! You working these from simple support resistance (old highs/lows)?




.... like clockwork has just retested the same level and bounced off it. May try again and if it breaks through the test of lower levels could be on in earnest. 

_Remember its not crystal ball gazing or trying to predict the future, but being on the right side of any move._


----------



## acouch

will check if charts are getting loaded..
ac

Yes !


----------



## acouch

good morning all
we have two charts today, one is
road map, and there is the updated eod spi chart , this one is the 4th one 
in the series..
yesterday, found support at the 5328 which was the low of the 28.3.08
as you can see marked in red on eod chart..
also marked on the chart is the highs of the gap marked in aqua..to watch
for perhaps another lower dble top, also gap fills are marked in grey.
there is a lot of resistance above if this 5328 is going to hold..will be a big struggle..
lower targets are still in place..
have a great day and good trades
ac


----------



## Euler

Watching level @

   *5416
           5394
**5372
           5352
   *5331

as bounds for today


----------



## Broadway

Volume analysis is so screwed at handover times.

Have to resort to pure DOM trading.

Luckily there was 107 in the ask dom just after 10am, nice hint.


----------



## Euler

Euler said:


> Watching level @
> 
> *5416
> 5394
> **5372
> 5352
> *5331
> 
> as bounds for today




.... further thoughts as the picture unfolds .... support needs to hold 5310-17 range, else a high possibility to continue and test those lower ranges.


----------



## acouch

afternoon all
Monday's road map
have a great weekend and take care
ac

interesting that the range down yesterday was 708
707 is harmonic..


----------



## Euler

Watching level @

   *5458
           5418
**5377
           5356
   *5333

as bounds for today.


----------



## acouch

morning all,
todays road map
have a great day, and good trades
ac


----------



## Euler

Watching level @

   *5402
           5382
**5364
           5340
   *5316

as bounds for today.


----------



## acouch

good morning all,
today's road map
this is the last road map for June
tomorrow's will be for the September 
contract
have a great day, and good trades
ac


----------



## Euler

Watching level @

   *5476
           5435
**5393
           5360
   *5326

as bounds for today.


----------



## acouch

good morning all
today is expiry, expect a wild morning till
June dies
todays' road map is the September contract
seems to be working ok, i have been testing it the last few days.
have a great day, and good trades
ac


----------



## Euler

Watching level @

   *5436
           5418
**5400
           5369
   *5338

as bounds for today.

SEPT CONTRACT!!


----------



## Mike Trader

Euler said:


> Watching level @
> 
> *5436
> 5418
> **5400
> 5369
> *5338
> 
> as bounds for today.
> 
> SEPT CONTRACT!!




Hi Euler ,are these daily pivots for the Spi? Cheers Mike


----------



## Euler

Mike Trader said:


> Hi Euler ,are these daily pivots for the Spi? Cheers Mike




simple daily pivots (support/resistance)


----------



## acouch

good morning all
today's road map
have a great day,and good trades
ac


----------



## Euler

Watching level @

   *5423
           5406
**5389
           5374
   *5358

as bounds for today.

SEPT CONTRACT!!


----------



## Euler

Euler said:


> Watching level @
> 
> *5423
> 5406
> **5389
> 5374
> *5358
> 
> as bounds for today.
> 
> SEPT CONTRACT!!





ok ... pushed beyond the inner bounds, so adding next levels ... all else the same ...... 


  *5456
           5440
   *5423
           5406
**5389
           5374
   *5358
           5340
   *5323


----------



## acouch

good morning all
Monday's road map
have a great weekend and take care
ac


----------



## acouch

the 5th chart in the series of the eod chart
to keep you in the loop..
resistance now at 5447
have a great day
ac


----------



## Euler

Watching levels @

      5375
  *5323
      5297
**5271
      5220
  *5168
      5142

as bounds for today.


----------



## acouch

good morning all
today's road map,
pretty similar to yesterday's, i have changed the
colour of the lis..might make it easier to read..see how it goes.
have a great day, and good trades
ac


----------



## Euler

Watching levels @

  *5353
      5331
  *5309
      5286
**5262
      5240
  *5218
      5195
  *5171

as bounds for today.


----------



## Euler

With a little luck we may have seen a minor low in place now.
With end of FY and balancing of the books they may push it up as far and as hard as possible into week end.

-------------------------
_just my thoughts ... have been known to make a wrong call before_


----------



## juw177

Agreed Euler. I got hurt by yesterday's rally up from the morning low. Sat out and watched today's action... all looks strong.


----------



## acouch

good morning all
today's road map
have a great day, and good trades
ac


----------



## Euler

Watching levels @


      5351
  *5322
      5301
**5280
      5252
  *5223
      5202

for today.


----------



## Broadway

Is it just IB thats down with the spi, or is it a trading holt at the exchange?


----------



## Trembling Hand

IB c:


----------



## acouch

good morning all
today's road map
have a great day, and good trades
ac


----------



## Euler

Watch trading levels @


      5351
  *5325
      5302
**5278
      5253
  *5227
      5204

for today.


----------



## acouch

good morning all
today's road map
have a great day and good trades..
ac

ps. will post another eod chart at the weekend
to keep those interested in it..in the loop


----------



## Trembling Hand

Interesting pattern this week. We have had red(down) nights and green(up) days. Any one care on a bet that we close higher than the SPI open imp:


----------



## Euler

Euler said:


> With a little luck we may have seen a minor low in place now.
> With end of FY and balancing of the books they may push it up as far and as hard as possible into week end.
> 
> -------------------------
> _just my thoughts ... have been known to make a wrong call before_




Well!!!! ..... record oil prices and more bank writedown warnings have put paid to the "minor low" ... just have to watch for it to unfold further.


----------



## Trembling Hand

Yes I had a flirt with the idea that funds may play the mark up game. But really the Shorts are in control of this market and may just play the mark down game


----------



## Euler

Watch trading levels @


      5359
  *5303
      5275
**5246
      5191
  *5135
      5107

for today.


----------



## Trembling Hand

How woulda thought hey?


----------



## acouch

good morning all
Monday's road map
have a great weekend and take care
ac


----------



## acouch

good morning,
6th chart in the series..
to keep you in the loop
resistance now at 5357..
have a great day
ac


----------



## julius

Nearing major support at the March lows...


----------



## Broadway

Trembling Hand said:


> Interesting pattern this week. We have had red(down) nights and green(up) days. Any one care on a bet that we close higher than the SPI open imp:




There's lots of good looking rallys across asia. It's just overnight we get hammered.

It's like Asia wants to decouple from the US and go it's own way. We need to draw a line in the sand and say - NO MORE..

The SPI's 100 point rally on friday after open was an example.

I think Asia needs to cut the US free like it's an unwanted cancer. .

Let it stew in it's crunches and arguments with Opec countries.

Revolt Asia!  Revolt!   

p.s. NYSE volume is increasing every night for the last 4 nights - some hope maybe?

http://www.wallstreetcourier.com/technician/daily-market-statistics/daily-market-statistics.htm#dow


----------



## Euler

Watch trading levels @


      5341
  *5310
      5268
**5226
      5196
  *5165
      5123

for today.


----------



## acouch

good morning all
today's road map
have a great day and good trades
ac


----------



## Euler

Watch trading levels @


      5356
  *5309
      5272
**5235
      5188
  *5141
      5104

for today.


----------



## Trembling Hand

Just had a Long tickle on the SPI. Been a while since I have done a night trade. lets see if that was a low @5057, in at 5069.

will  it on the slightest tick past entry.


----------



## Trembling Hand

LOL. 1 point.

:grenade:


----------



## acouch

good morning all
today's road map
have a great day and good trades
ac


----------



## Euler

Watch trading levels @


      5277
  *5228
      5185
**5141
      5092
  *5043
      5000

for today.


----------



## Wealth Wizard

Nice little gap close


----------



## acouch

good morning all
today's road map
have a great day and good trades
ac


----------



## Euler

Watch trading levels @


      5156
  *5103
      5072
**5041
      4989
  *4936
      4905

for today.


----------



## JZ009

Aussie market is going down ....again....what level are you guys predicting will be the bottom of bottom???? 4500?


----------



## acouch

4704 sounds good to me
ac


----------



## Euler

Watch trading levels @


      5054
  *5040
      5019
**4997
      4983
  *4969
      4948

for today.


----------



## Euler

Watch trading levels @


      5123
  *5101
      5079
**5056
      5034
  *5012
      4990

for today.


----------



## Euler

Watch trading levels @


      5108
  *5066
      5031
**4996
      4954
  *4912
      4877

for today.


----------



## nat

hi all ,,,Is there no more road maps acouch ? Ive found them quite handy actuallly .You have done well posting them up for this long ,hope everythings going fine for you ,Nathan


----------



## Euler

Watch trading levels @


      5074
  *5049
      5017
**4985
      4960
  *4935
      4903

for today.


----------



## nat

Euler said:


> Watch trading levels @
> 
> 
> 5074
> *5049
> 5017
> **4985
> 4960
> *4935
> 4903
> 
> for today.




Hi euler Just wondering about your levels ,i c 4985 is a monthly pivot what are the *5049and*4935 are they just ones you think are significant or are they some sort of pivot to ? Interesting how each person can get so many diff levels they all think are usefull as long as each one can profit off of what they do thats all that matters.Nathan


----------



## Euler

nat said:


> Hi euler Just wondering about your levels ,i c 4985 is a monthly pivot what are the *5049and*4935 are they just ones you think are significant or are they some sort of pivot to ? Interesting how each person can get so many diff levels they all think are usefull as long as each one can profit off of what they do thats all that matters.Nathan




Nat, although based on the simple PP model my levels are diff to what others may calculate. The * levels are my r1 AND s1 levels. They suit my trading style/timeframes etc.


----------



## acouch

good morning all
today's road map
have a great day and good trades
ac
getting pretty close now to 4705

cant add chart :-( wont open up, and i will be going out at 8.30am will check and see if ok before i go, if so will add chart.


----------



## Euler

Watch trading levels @


      5074
  *5041
      5011
**4981
      4949
  *4916
      4886

for today.


----------



## acouch

acouch said:


> good morning all
> today's road map
> have a great day and good trades
> ac
> getting pretty close now to 4705
> 
> cant add chart :-( wont open up, and i will be going out at 8.30am will check and see if ok before i go, if so will add chart.



http://s179.photobucket.com/albums/w292/acouch_2007/?action=view&current=spiml445.png


----------



## acouch

good morning all
today's road map
have a great day and good trades
ac

hmm, still cant load charts with managed attachments..

link below:

http://s179.photobucket.com/albums/w292/acouch_2007/?action=view&current=spiml446.png


----------



## Euler

Watch trading levels @


      5026
  *5012
      4985
**4958
      4945
  *4931
      4904

for today.


----------



## acouch

good afternoon,
Monday's road map
have a great weekend
ac


----------



## acouch

Morning all,
spi eod chart.

7th chart in the series to keep you
in the loop for those interested.
have a great day
ac


----------



## James Austin

*is anyone using OBV to aid intraday SPI trading?

if yes, what OBV timeframe have you found best,
and what is your primary timeframe for trading off?

myself, my primary timeframe to trade off is a 1 min chart
and
am trialling OBV on a 2 min chart*

- james


----------



## julius

Hi James,

It sounds interesting - could you post some charts to show how you are using OBV ?


----------



## James Austin

*Hi Julius

short entry signal at pink line (1 min chart)

OBV (2 min chart – to reduce noise) supporting trade “moments” later

uncomplicated approach at present – just trialling, haven’t given it any indepth analysis

also interested in divergence signals which coincide with “expected” turning points, but which are not yet showing up in prices*


----------



## Trembling Hand

James what time of day is that chart.


----------



## James Austin

*TH
sorry, that chart is actually the FTSE100 futures, on the chart 7am refers to 5pm Bris/Syd time.
Obviously the same OBV principles would be applied to the SPI.
James*


----------



## Euler

Watch trading levels @


      5028
  *4978
      4935
**4892
      4842
  *4792
      4749

for today.


----------



## acouch

good morning all
today's road map
have a great day and good trades
ac


----------



## Euler

Watch trading levels @


      4989
  *4959
      4940
**4921
      4891
  *4861
      4842

for today.


----------



## rossw

acouch said:


> good morning all
> today's road map
> have a great day and good trades
> ac




hi..
new to this forum
what are these charts you are posting?
(or is there somewhere you've already explained?)


----------



## acouch

page 85 i think
good trades
ac


----------



## Broadway

I think I'll just join everybody else - short the opens, fade the rallys.

And don't give a **** where it takes us.

Zero markets - here we come!


----------



## rossw

acouch said:


> page 85 i think
> good trades
> ac




thanks
i've just spent half a day reading most of this thread (quite day at work) and found some info


----------



## acouch

good morning all
today's road map
have a great day and good trades
ac


----------



## nat

Hi all ,,hey acouuch your line in sand number nearing your 4704 ,will it hit it today i wonder ? NAthan


----------



## acouch

morning Nat,

sycom low was 4735..if you look on the eod chart..there is 4734 confluence.
the 4704 is the 1.618 of the range up into all time high.we will see 
soon enough if its hit, and also needs to hold 
have a great day
ac


----------



## Euler

Watch trading levels @


      4921
  *4874
      4839
**4804
      4758
  *4711
      4676

for today.


----------



## Euler

Wonder how many more Freddies and Fannies there are out there? ... even in our markets.
And there was a hint of exhaustion of the sell-off until it took hold again. So much for the Feds assurances it would help the two.
Now there is a real possibility of it wanting to head to 4000 region (and it's not that far away!). In fact one reliable source even commented it wanting to see a 3_(xxx)_ in front of it before it bottomed. And we all may have thought it was a quick sudden decline and now safe to buy in again?


----------



## acouch

good morning all
today's road map
have a great day and good trades
ac


----------



## Euler

Watch trading levels @


      4988
  *4964
      4918
**4872
      4849
  *4825
      4799

for today.


----------



## acouch

morning all
today's road map
have a great day and good trades
ac


----------



## Euler

Watch trading levels @


      4997
  *4973
      4950
**4927
      4904
  *4880
      4857

for today.


----------



## acouch

good morning all,
Monday's road map
have a great weekend, and take care
ac


----------



## Euler

Watch trading levels @


      4972
  *4950
      4917
**4883
      4861
  *4839
      4806

for today.


----------



## acouch

good morning all,
today's road map
have a great day and good trades
ac


----------



## Euler

Watch trading levels @

    *5088
      5057
  **5025
      5001
***4976
      4945
  **4913
      4889
    *4864

for today.

_nb: r2 values included due to wider range being made_


----------



## acouch

good morning all
today's road map
have a great day, and good trades
ac


----------



## nat

To euler and acouch have a great day both of youse,and thanx again for your posts, when satisfied with way my spi trading going wil post something of worth that might help . Nathan


----------



## Euler

Nat, always good to have you here and your views. Take it slow and tread carefully with it. Learn and study and read and talk to anyone that will listen. And keep posting your views .... your methods are as valid as the next trader's as long as it works for you.
Good trading.


Watch trading levels @

    *5143
      5121
  **5098
      5057
***5015
      4993
  **4970
      4929
    *4887

for today.

_nb: r2 values included due to wider range being made_


----------



## acouch

good morning all
today's road map
have a great day,and good trades
ac


----------



## Euler

Watch trading levels @

    *5214
      5189
  **5164
      5133
***5101
      5076
  **5051
      5020
    *4988

for today.


----------



## Crez

HI guys, first post but I been reading the thread for a while now - great reading for a semi novice like myself. I have to throw one out to you guys to see if someone can help one of my friends with an exit plan. He has beeen in a pickle with some CFD aussie 200 contracts for a couple of months and trying to manage them has proven very difficult. I can't think of an exit without taking a helathy loss, so maybe you guys can. Here's the situation :
CFD $25 contracts
LONG -5849
LONG- 5272
SHORT X2 - 4860

The 4860 contract was cover as he was going to fall into margin. The 5849 long he was happy to hold onto thinking the 200 was only going to fall to 5300 or so. Capital spare is around $3000. I can't think of an exit without him taking a possible 15k loss. Can anyone put any further light on an exit strategy? I realise there are some "cluey" guys on the site like Euler, TH, AC etc, any thoughts would be much appreciated.

Cheers

Crez


----------



## Trembling Hand

Sorry Crez that don't make sense? (to me)

Whats the net position?? And at what average price?


----------



## Crez

Hi TH, at current levels the postions are roughly this:
5849 - down $17k 
5272 - down $3k
4860 - down $14k
Oh and he has a long term postion of some US stock which is also down roughly 5k. Total balance of the trading account is 43k. Margin on each contract is worth 2.5 k, he is fully hedged at the moment.
Thanks for the quick response TH,
Cheers

Crez


----------



## korrupt_1

Crez said:


> any thoughts would be much appreciated.z




From my calculations your friend hedged at around a nett loss of some 1400pts ($35K!!!) Can I ask why it took soo long to take action? Anyway, that's besides the point.

Your friend has basically locked a $35K loss in. Whatever he does, that's the amount that he's going to loose. If he was to close any of the long or shorts, and the market moves against him, he's going dig a deeper hole. The one thing he can do is to MINIMISE that loss - with the best case scenerio of him getting 100% of it back.  

What I'd do is to look for when the market is extremely Oversold or Overbought (or any other strong technical indicators) that a change in direction is going to happen and take a risk and close one of the hedge contracts off. Then pray that once the hedge is closed, the market will move in his favour. If the market doesn't move in his favour, this is where you'll need to implement stop losses and try to preseve as much of that remaining $3K capital as possible.

Once the market looks like it's about to change direction, you can always re-hedge to lock in the new losses... hopefully some figure less than $35K.

Basically, what he's attempting to do is to use what's left of that $3K and turn that in $35K.... 

I also bet that daily interest is killing him? Perhaps close the contracts off (yes... realising his losses) and re-opening them when your CFD broker has finished calculating open positions for interest calculations. Just remember that $35K is your target to get back...

Other than that... especially to new traders... never get yourself into such situation... always use stop loss and have a trading plan on when things go bad... you have an escape route!


----------



## Trembling Hand

Crez said:


> Hi TH, at current levels the postions are roughly this:
> 5849 - down $17k
> 5272 - down $3k
> 4860 - down $14k
> Oh and he has a long term postion of some US stock which is also down roughly 5k. Total balance of the trading account is 43k. Margin on each contract is worth 2.5 k, he is fully hedged at the moment.
> Thanks for the quick response TH,
> Cheers
> 
> Crez




So Crez just to be clear is he long and short the same contract in the same Account 

Or has he two diff accounts?


----------



## Wysiwyg

Why trade CFD`s without a stop loss?I did once and will never again.It is financial suicide.




.


----------



## Crez

Thanks K, agreed with the risk management - an absolute must. His postion on the trading front is very much part time. The contract that is the problem from my end is the 4860 short - I personally think that coming into reporting season, the market will move to the upside and the short postion is at 14k down at this level. Whether we get to the 5800 level is another story. I'm going to try to manage this for him as he is away serving as of 5 days ago. Appreciate your thoughts,

Crez


----------



## Crez

That's correct TH.

Crez


----------



## Crez

Same account TH

Crez


----------



## Trembling Hand

Crez said:


> Same account TH
> 
> Crez





Who is the broker? 

That is just the crappiest hedge I have ever seen. *Its not even a hedge*. What he has effectively done is close out the position and entered into a $278,000 loan @ X % interest and also lent out $243,000 to receive X% interest minus a fair bit.

There is nothing to do but close out all positions and start again. Or close one side and take a directional bet on the market a coin toss 

OR this is what I would do.

Reduce the position by 30% on both sides just to lighten up the emotions and move in the right direction. in a day or two think about the next action which will probably be the same as the last.

*None of these things are recommendations just possible actions that could be taken.*

A link of some relevance,

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Denial


----------



## MRC & Co

Trembling Hand said:


> A link of some relevance,
> 
> http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Denial




LOL.

I thought the link was gonna be on hedging!

I still don't understand your 'mates' position.

If he is long, net 5 contracts and wants to hedge, he should go short 5 contracts, until he figures out this 'exit plan', right?

Only two ways about it now, he has to realise his losses.  That is the only conclusion he can come too after prolonging it though hedging. 

If you are going to hedge, you still need some kind of directional bias to make a profit and never heard of a ratio spread, on the same contract, at the same exchange in the same expiration month.  The net difference will be identical to what you wanted to achieve with only a directional bet with fewer contracts.


----------



## Trembling Hand

I don't know how you can be long and short the same contract in the same account.  
Thats a funny old set-up.


----------



## chops_a_must

Might it be the December contract?

MRC... I don't think you could be both long and short the same contract. You'd have to think of it like a calendar spread if I'm thinking of it properly...


----------



## MRC & Co

Oh yes, didn't see it was in the same account.  lol.

Yeh, agree Chops, has to be a calendar spread, only kind of spread it can be as both are on the SPI and would explain why both are from the same account.

Definately a  explanation.


----------



## nat

hi there,with a cfd "spi futures contract " one can go long 1 contract then go short same thing with another so have 2 totally diff positions on same thing going diff directions ,with the one account,this is with ig markets ,so maybe can do it with other cfd providers, Nathan


----------



## Euler

nat said:


> hi there,with a cfd "spi futures contract " one can go long 1 contract then go short same thing with another so have 2 totally diff positions on same thing going diff directions ,with the one account,this is with ig markets ,so maybe can do it with other cfd providers, Nathan




Nat, agree ... with IG you can use their Force Open feature which allows you to open a new position, regardless of any existing positions, which would otherwise get netted off.


----------



## Trembling Hand

nat said:


> hi there,with a cfd "spi futures contract " one can go long 1 contract then go short same thing with another so have 2 totally diff positions on same thing going diff directions ,with the one account,this is with ig markets ,so maybe can do it with other cfd providers, Nathan




LOL. What a bag of ****


----------



## nat

Trembling Hand said:


> LOL. What a bag of ****




Are you calling me that or the fact that they allow one to do that ,if the first answer you have totally lost my respect ,if not disregard .Nathan


----------



## professor_frink

nat said:


> hi there,with a cfd "spi futures contract " one can go long 1 contract then go short same thing with another so have 2 totally diff positions on same thing going diff directions ,with the one account,this is with ig markets ,so maybe can do it with other cfd providers, Nathan




anyone care to fill me in on the point of being able to do that?


----------



## chops_a_must

So let me get this straight...

CMC open a new position to stop the client going into margin. 

New position goes negative and positions aren't liquidated? WTF?????????


----------



## prawn_86

professor_frink said:


> anyone care to fill me in on the point of being able to do that?




i thought the same. your just cancelling each out so its the same as having closed all positions


----------



## professor_frink

prawn_86 said:


> i thought the same. your just cancelling each out so its the same as having closed all positions




yeah exactly. Only thing I can think of to explain it would be if you were wanting to run a hedge on an ETF long position by shorting a cfd contract, but also wanted to do some short term intraday trading that wouldn't impact the hedge at all. But even then the end result would still be the same. Weird


----------



## nat

my guess and this is only a guess ,is say have a longer term position going long for say a week but can also short the same thing on the retracements .
Without affecting the original long position. Nathan.


----------



## prawn_86

but its no different to selling the long term position then buying back in when yo think the trend is continuing.  

Anyways, not my kind of scene so i dont really care...


----------



## Trembling Hand

nat said:


> Are you calling me that or the fact that they allow one to do that ,if the first answer you have totally lost my respect ,if not disregard .Nathan



 No, no not at all. Just the rubbish they come up with to pull in the punters



professor_frink said:


> anyone care to fill me in on the point of being able to do that?







chops_a_must said:


> So let me get this straight...
> 
> CMC open a new position to stop the client going into margin.
> 
> New position goes negative and positions aren't liquidated? WTF?????????




The reason they allow it is ingenious. Most retail punters do exactly the wrong thing at exactly the wrong time. Buy really high sell much much lower. Hedging is probably one of the hardest things to time.

This would be text book example what this dude has done. One bad trade after another and instead of  up the trade when you cannot handle the loss any more they give you the perfect emotional out by letting you "hedge" just at the wrong time..............Brilliant!!


----------



## korrupt_1

nat said:


> my guess and this is only a guess ,is say have a longer term position going long for say a week but can also short the same thing on the retracements .
> Without affecting the original long position. Nathan.




Spot on.... I do this everynow and then...

Awhile back I shorted at 5450. When I did this I was betting that it would hit 4900 sometime - so rather than close out that position and miss out on intraday movements,... I open new positions within the same account on the same instrument. This allows me to trade long and short positions all the while making some winnings on the side.

Being a short, I wasn't too concerned with holding it overnight since I was getting paid interest.


----------



## korrupt_1

Crez said:


> The contract that is the problem from my end is the 4860 short - I personally think that coming into reporting season, the market will move to the upside and the short postion is at 14k down at this level.





If you think there's more upside to go,... then that's ur answer... close the shorts... take the 14K loss. Ride the longs as high as it will go. Without the shorts, the losses on the longs will be reduced. When you think it goes no more, re-hedge. 

Ride the short down, then close out the short when you think it's bottomed out. When you close out the short, the profits from that will be enough to cover the 'margin' on the longs.

Repeat again until you've made enough money to cover your losses. Then close out all position and walk away.

Note that each time you close a position or re-hedge,.. you will be taking a risk and punting on which direction the market is moving.  If the market moves against you, you will need to move quickly and stem the bleeding by either re-hedging or closing out a short. You only got $3K left... so that's not a lot of room for errors. Just be sure about which way the market is trending before taking action. Hell if you are really sure,.. then place extra bets to speed up the recovery.

Good luck to your mate with whatever he does... that's one shoe I don't want to be in...


----------



## Trembling Hand

korrupt_1 said:


> Repeat again until you've made enough money to cover your losses. Then close out all position and walk away.
> 
> Note that each time you close a position or re-hedge,.. you will be taking a risk and punting on which direction the market is moving.  If the market moves against you, you will need to move quickly and stem the bleeding by either re-hedging or closing out a short. You only got $3K left... so that's not a lot of room for errors. *Just be sure about which way the market is trending before taking action.* Hell if you are really sure,.. then place extra bets to speed up the recovery.




Korrupt in my humblest opinion thats just not going to cut it. The statement about making sure which way the market is trending is madness. By the time you know that its normally over in this market. See today as the perfect example!!!!

The only thing this dude knows is that he is a poor trader and he has lost a hell of a lot of money punting in this way. They are the only things he can be "sure about". He needs to stop rejecting the reality and get on with other things.


----------



## professor_frink

Trembling Hand said:


> No, no not at all. Just the rubbish they come up with to pull in the punters
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> The reason they allow it is ingenious. Most retail punters do exactly the wrong thing at exactly the wrong time. Buy really high sell much much lower. Hedging is probably one of the hardest things to time.
> 
> This would be text book example what this dude has done. One bad trade after another and instead of  up the trade when you cannot handle the loss any more they give you the perfect emotional out by letting you "hedge" just at the wrong time..............Brilliant!!




Is it just me or is it quite sad when the only explanation that makes any sense is the most cynical one


----------



## professor_frink

Crez said:


> HI guys, first post but I been reading the thread for a while now - great reading for a semi novice like myself. I have to throw one out to you guys to see if someone can help one of my friends with an exit plan. He has beeen in a pickle with some CFD aussie 200 contracts for a couple of months and trying to manage them has proven very difficult. I can't think of an exit without taking a helathy loss, so maybe you guys can. Here's the situation :
> CFD $25 contracts
> LONG -5849
> LONG- 5272
> SHORT X2 - 4860
> 
> The 4860 contract was cover as he was going to fall into margin. The 5849 long he was happy to hold onto thinking the 200 was only going to fall to 5300 or so. Capital spare is around $3000. I can't think of an exit without him taking a possible 15k loss. Can anyone put any further light on an exit strategy? I realise there are some "cluey" guys on the site like Euler, TH, AC etc, any thoughts would be much appreciated.
> 
> Cheers
> 
> Crez




Crez, there is a couple of good lessons to be learnt here. Exit plans are a good idea. Pretend hedges aren't. 

The best course of action here is to take a bath on the position and(hopefully) learn a lesson.

Things don't always work out the way they were meant to


----------



## acouch

to trade without a stop loss,you then think you are 
smarter than the market..and the market takes scalps all the time as it is a living thing, and so is unpredictable.
you have to trade with the flow..
but then lessons are not cheap in the market..all a learning curve, and if you don't take heed, you will not be trading for long.
take care out there
have a great day
ac


----------



## Euler

Watch trading levels @

    *5196
      5157
  **5118
      5097
***5075
      5036
  **4997
      4976
    *4954

for today.


----------



## Crez

Thanks everyone for all your posts, and I'm with everyone on the stop losses. I personally don't trade $25 contracts - I trade minis up to 4 at a time with top ups, and have a 10 point stop both ways. I put this out there to see if there is a way other than what I had thought already to minimise his loss. My way of the thinking has been the same as Korrupts coming into reporting - to take the hit on the short as close as possible and work the cover on the way up. An enormous task I know, but seems like the only way.
Thanks again



Crez


----------



## korrupt_1

Trembling Hand said:


> Korrupt in my humblest opinion thats just not going to cut it.




For once I totally agree with you.... if any Joe can pick a trend,.. we're all going to be filthy rich and not know what to do with it....

I just feel sorry for the poor guy... it's a shame that CFD providers allow such a mess to happen.

If that was me... I'd take the $3K and go buy as many scratchies or lottery ticket as you can... that way atleast you have a chance of some winnings... to keep on trying to trade will surely see that $3K disappear.


----------



## acouch

pretty hard to trade blind, and to me, that seems to be what has happened :-(

you have to think of trading as a profession..not some willy nilly fun park game


takes years to get it right, and then you can still get it wrong, but you have also learnt along the way, and have trade management well set in place.

as said before..lessons are expensive
ac


----------



## acouch

oops..someone just told me that i put road map under cfd's..dah!! here it is here now..sorry about that,
if someone wants to remove it from cfd's that would be great..thanks 
ac


----------



## MRC & Co

Crez said:


> I personally don't trade $25 contracts - I trade minis up to 4 at a time with top ups, and have a 10 point stop both ways.




lol, even 2 little minis (YMs) are nearly equal to one SPI contract.  Let alone 4 minis at a time.


----------



## Trembling Hand

MRC & Co said:


> even 2 little minis (YMs) are nearly equal to one SPI contract.  Let alone 4 minis at a time.




I think he is talking about mini CFDs not Futs which are $5 or $1 per tick depending on broker.


----------



## MRC & Co

Trembling Hand said:


> I think he is talking about mini CFDs not Futs which are $5 or $1 per tick depending on broker.




Ah k, I get it.  

BTW, does anybody here actually trade using spreads at all?  Commodity, calendar, inter-market?  

Not including option credit/debit spreads, which I know Chops loves!


----------



## AlexanderPop

The only way i believe you can trade the spi consitantly is scalps intra day.


----------



## Trembling Hand

AlexanderPop said:


> The only way i believe you can trade the spi consitantly is scalps intra day.




Why??


----------



## acouch

good morning all
today's road map
have a great day and good trades
ac


----------



## Euler

Watch trading levels @

    *5079
      5061
  **5043
      5013
***4982
      4964
  **4946
      4916
    *4885

for today.


----------



## rossw

i hope some of you guys who do this full time are enjoying today
the 5min chart i'm watching is near vertical for about 110 points down (except for that slight bounce around 4950)


----------



## Trembling Hand

rossw said:


> i hope some of you guys who do this full time are enjoying today
> the 5min chart i'm watching is near vertical for about 110 points down (except for that slight bounce around 4950)




Funny thing is I don't like trending days. Always prefer chop. Most of my setups are fades rather than breakouts.


----------



## acouch

good morning all
today's road map
have a great day, and good trades
ac


----------



## Euler

Watch trading levels @

    *5042
      4992
  **4942
      4916
***4890
      4840
  **4790
      4764
    *4738

for today.

.... and just when you thought we had seen the bottom, someone comes and spoils the party...   

quote * "The International Monetery Fund said there is no end in sight
to the housing slump .... "*


----------



## acouch

just thought i would post this chart..as you can see support held here for today
ac


----------



## korrupt_1

LOL acouch... your chart looks like my atari video game console graphics!!


----------



## acouch

hahaha, makes life interesting


----------



## Trembling Hand

korrupt_1 said:


> looks like my atari video game console




Who said trading the SPI was anything other than the ultimate Vid game!!


----------



## nat

Hi acouch ,are they similar to frank d timeframes ,how long did it take to get used to fibionacca trading software i looked at demo once but couldnt work it out ,,, i use diff time frames to look for various supp and res and such things but with a few charts ,would be good to be able to do it on one chart ,

SO how do you trade with this are you looking for a bounce to a diff time frame then look for next level down combined with your road map ? Nathan


----------



## nat

Hi to anyone out there ,wondering thoughts on vol trading spi ,as i dont have it on my charts i am actually get by alright without it just looking at price actionim finding ,one day am going to get charts with vol maybe but wondering if willl  hinder me as getting used to trading without it ,,,

Thoughts anyone ,What percentage of your trading the spi do you place on vol ? 

NAthan


----------



## acouch

afternoon nat..

time frames are similar to frank's, i have had this software since 
1999, and i can tell you it isn't a easy software to handle..
frank was a front runner on this ,that is for sure, and deserves the 
credit for bringing it to the front..

re volume charts, the spi works very well on a 50 volume chart,
also a 10 tic chart,for scalping.. if you have them on your software,to use.
hope this is of some help
ac


----------



## acouch

good morning all,
today's road map
have a great day. and good trades
ac


----------



## rossw

acouch said:


> re volume charts, the spi works very well on a 50 volume chart,
> also a 10 tic chart,for scalping.. if you have them on your software,to use.
> hope this is of some help
> ac




'xcuse my ignorance, but what is a 50 volume chart?
I'm guessing it makes a new bar for every 50 contracts traded (and so filters out time)?


----------



## Euler

Watch trading levels @

    *4991
      4972
  **4952
      4914
***4875
      4856
  **4836
      4798
    *4759

for today.


----------



## acouch

rossw said:


> 'xcuse my ignorance, but what is a 50 volume chart?
> I'm guessing it makes a new bar for every 50 contracts traded (and so filters out time)?




yes,and works very well on the spi, i am not at home atm, but will put one up later in the day, when i am home
ac


----------



## rossw

thanks


----------



## acouch

here are two 50 Volume charts, with different software.

have a great evening 
ac


----------



## nat

thanx ac.Nathan


----------



## acouch

good morning all,

today's road map.
have a great day, and good trades
ac


----------



## rossw

thanks for the chart ac
seems like a good idea in some ways.. it just shows up price movements and not worrying about how long they take

do the charts get affected by crossings?


----------



## glenn_r

Greetings All

I'm moving away from using the ASX300 stocks as a shooting gallery and concentrating now on 1 or 3, whilst also looking to trade the SPI and ES.

I have been following the posts here for awhile and appreciate the different methods discussed on trading the SPI, my current flavour of the month is a simple Donchian channel with divergence which works well when it trends a little.

Todays SPI 3min  chart had a few good divergence trades IMHO.


----------



## acouch

good morning all
today's road map
have a good day and great trades..
ac

will update the  eod chart which be the 8th chart in the series of this bear..for those interested at the weekend, to keep you in the loop
ac


----------



## Euler

Watch trading levels @

    *5049
      5021
  **4992
      4976
***4959
      4931
  **4902
      4886
    *4869

for today.


----------



## acouch

good morning all,
Monday's road map
have a great weekend,and take care
ac


----------



## acouch

Good morning,

this is the 8th chart in the series of the eod chart.
as you can see marked, that the 4734 was tested on sycom on
the 15th July at 4735..
i have also added a new no to be aware of..3936...as the year moves along,
we will see if it comes into fruition..but it is strong resistance as was the 4735 
on sycom..and as it will be on the daily..
have a great day
ac


----------



## Euler

Watch trading levels @

    *4983
      4954
  **4942
      4906
***4887
      4858
  **4902
      4828
    *4810

for today.


----------



## Euler

Euler said:


> Watch trading levels @
> 
> *4983
> 4954
> **4942    <======== !!!!!!!!
> 4906
> ***4887
> 4858
> **4902
> 4828
> *4810
> 
> for today.




apologies all .... **4942, should read ... ***4924*


----------



## acouch

good morning all
today's road map
have a great day, and good trades
ac


----------



## Euler

Watch trading levels @

    *4960
      4925
  **4889
      4868
***4846
      4811
  **4775
      4754
    *4732

for today.


----------



## korrupt_1

Crez said:


> HI guys, first post but I been reading the thread for a while now - great reading for a semi novice like myself. I have to throw one out to you guys to see if someone can help one of my friends with an exit plan. He has beeen in a pickle with some CFD aussie 200 contracts for a couple of months and trying to manage them has proven very difficult. I can't think of an exit without taking a helathy loss, so maybe you guys can. Here's the situation :
> CFD $25 contracts
> LONG -5849
> LONG- 5272
> SHORT X2 - 4860
> 
> The 4860 contract was cover as he was going to fall into margin. The 5849 long he was happy to hold onto thinking the 200 was only going to fall to 5300 or so. Capital spare is around $3000. I can't think of an exit without him taking a possible 15k loss. Can anyone put any further light on an exit strategy? I realise there are some "cluey" guys on the site like Euler, TH, AC etc, any thoughts would be much appreciated.
> 
> Cheers
> 
> Crez




hi Crez,.. if you are reading this...

What did you end up doing? You were thinking of closing out the shorts... ... your speculation that the SPI will go higher hasn't come to fruition... infact it's looking like it's about to make new lows soon!


----------



## Broadway

Nice trend today, she bounced right off the July 16 lows, reacted nicely to the large volume spike, and it has alot of friends in the ASX 20 and across Asia.

Fingers crossed for a good follow through over the next few days.


----------



## acouch

just another look at our girl this afternoon.
ac


----------



## acouch

good morning all
today's road map
have a great day, and good trades
ac


----------



## Euler

Watch trading levels @

    *5041
      5010
  **4978
      4916
***4854
      4823
  **4791
      4729
    *4667

for today.


----------



## acouch

good morning all,
today's road map
have a great day, and good trades
ac

also note on the eod daily chart we have resistance at 5019..
ac


----------



## acouch

good morning all,
today's road map
have a great day, and good trades
ac


----------



## acouch

oops yesterdays road map above ..here is todays'


----------



## Euler

Watch trading levels @

    *5036
      5007
  **4977
      4961
***4944
      4915
  **4885
      4869
    *4852

for today.


----------



## Broadway

Serious resistance at 1290 on the ES, 5000 on the spi.

Hopefully this ascending triangle eventually breaks north.

But US banks took a real hit last night.

I like how real ES bottoms (like july 16) are pretty obvious if you watch ES volume.


----------



## rossw

anyone mind giving me a ballpark on the brokerage you pay for the SPI?

i know some of you volume traders will get cheaper than the common folk, but just a ballpark would be good to help clarify my actual profits in this paper trading.

for the moment i'm using $5 per contract ie $10 per round trip
is that a fair guess?


----------



## Broadway

rossw said:


> for the moment i'm using $5 per contract ie $10 per round trip is that a fair guess?




Yep. Spot on.


----------



## acouch

good morning all,
Monday's road map
have a great weekend, and take care
ac


----------



## Euler

Watch trading levels @

    *5122
      5096
  **5070
      5023
***4975
      4949
  **4923
      4876
    *4828

for today.


----------



## acouch

good morning all
today's road map
have a great day, and good trades
ac


----------



## acouch

morning all
today's road map
have a great day and good trades
ac


----------



## Rockon2

See att 5 min chart,   good pattern setup,  sell short with a tight stop, at the break.

Pretty much a measured move..


TYMFTR


----------



## acouch

morning all
today's road map
have a great day and good trades..
ps, i assume you all realized that the lower nos on 
Wednesday should have started with 4..not 5 ,


----------



## acouch

good morning all
toady's road map
have a great day, and good trades
ac


----------



## acouch

afternoon all
Monday's road map
enjot the rest of your weekend
ac


----------



## acouch

good morning all
today's road map
have a great day, and good trades
ac


----------



## acouch

good morning all
today's road map
have a great day, and good trades
ac


----------



## acouch

good morning all
today's road map
have a great day and good trades
ac


----------



## acouch

good morning all
today's road map
have a great day, and good trades
ac

ps: will update eod chart at the weekend
for those interested , to keep you in the loop
ac


----------



## acouch

good morning all
Monday's road map
have a great weekend and take care
ac


----------



## acouch

the updated spi eod chart to keep you in the loop..

as you can see on this daily chart
we have a gap fill above at 5082

the break of 4830 will not be
a good look for longs..lower nos will be tested
i would think

as you can see that the 4734 was tested on the daily chart
at 4728....and as you can see it was 21 cd's from the test of sycom at 4735
to the test of price printed on the daily chart..

have a great day, and take care 
ac


----------



## RobinHood

> fragmentation - data reporting
> The SFE reports trades as component parts. Where 20 lots of 1 are in the queue, and a commercial trader hits them in a single trade, the SFE system reports 20 separate trades of 1 lot each. Where 1 lot of 20 is in the queue and 20x1 lot sellers hit simultaneously, the SFE system reports 20 separate trades of 1 lot each. In essence the SFE sells kitset furniture in kitset form. It needs to be assembled to be useful.



...







> We have examined data feeds from the exchange transmitting the dow mini, russel mini and S&P500 e-mini.



(http://www.camron.com.au/section5.htm)


Can anyone confirm this? Are any of you defragmenting T&S? or are you reading it, as is? 


(1min chart - historical data, nothing recent).





To me this looks like people suckered into the flag breakout and then getting out too late after the reversal. 

I have yet to see, out of the few days I've been watching tape, '1' lot orders shown separately all with the same timestamps. Is that what fragmented smart selling should look like?


----------



## camronsystems

The item referred to was first identified and reported in 2001, and published in the public domain in 2003.

We specialise in robotics and low-level data analysis. The information is obtained at the packet level using a commercial feed (not a retail feed) straight from the SFE without pre-processing. Some retail trading platforms pre-process their data transmission for reasons of bandwidth and speed.

The 2 published examples were extreme to make a specific point.

Some verifiable data from August 2008.

Selecting only sequential 1 x lot trades with the same time stamp 
The list below are only those that meet the criteria
"same minute" time stamp, with 9 sequential 1 x lot trades or more

The number of examples with less than 9 were too many to list

04/08 at 11:47 am   9 ticks
04/08 at 13:40 pm  10 ticks
04/08 at 14:06 pm   9 ticks
04/08 at 14:25 pm  10 ticks
08/08 at 12:37 pm   9 ticks
11/08 at 10:44 am   9 ticks
14/08 at 11:18 am  11 ticks
18/08 at 15:01 pm  12 ticks
19/08 at 11:58 am   9 ticks
21/08 at 11:08 am   9 ticks
21/08 at 11:09 am   9 ticks

For 22/08 there were
22/08 at 10:38 am   8 ticks
22/08 at 10:47 am   7 ticks
22/08 at 15:54 pm   8 ticks


----------



## acouch

good morning all
today's road map
have a great day, and good trades
ac


----------



## acouch

good morning all
today's road map
have a great day, and good trades
ac


----------



## acouch

good morning all
today's road map
have a great day and good trades,
ac


----------



## acouch

good morning all
today's road map
have a great day, and good trades
ac


----------



## acouch

good morning all
Monday's road map
have a great weekend, and take care
ac


----------



## acouch

good morning all
today's road map
have a great day and good trades
ac


----------



## acouch

updated eod chart...

had tested the 5152 area, 4 times..so was well weakened..to break through
as you can see i have out a blue set of ML's on the chart..
hope your day is going well
ac


----------



## acouch

good morning all,
there is no point in posting today's road map,
as it
is so similar to yesterdays road map,so just refer to that one.
upside nos are the same..most of the downside are
as well..
so above 5133 you are long, below you are short
have a great day
ac


----------



## acouch

good morning all
today's road map
have a great day and good trades
ac


----------



## acouch

good morning all
today's road map
have a great day, and good trades
ac


----------



## rossw

I see red 
I see red 
I see red

sing it with me


----------



## Trembling Hand

Actually I see mostly green!!


----------



## korrupt_1

yes... great day for day traders... hard to go wrong today...


----------



## acouch

evening all
spi 24hr chart for interest..
enjoy your evening
ac


----------



## nat

Hi acouch hows things ,been out working a real job for a while . What is the signifience of your 24 hour chart ,im guesssin it has made a hammer  on daily candle so bottom is in for a bit ? Have only been loosly following the ups and downs of the market last month and a half . Nathan


----------



## acouch

Just another road map Nat, but done with software..
my other road map is done by hand..
enjoy your weekend,
ac


----------



## acouch

Good morning all
Monday's road map
have a great weekend, and take care
ac


----------



## acouch

http://federalreserve.gov/newsevents/press/monetary/20080914a.htm

ac


----------



## acouch

good morning all
today's road map
have a great day, and good trades
ac


----------



## acouch

good morning,
today's road map
have a great day, and good trades
ac


----------



## acouch

here is the Dec Contract road map test..


ac


----------



## acouch

morning all
dec road map
have a great day, and good trades
ac


----------



## Edwood

so is it safe to come out yet?


----------



## wiseguy

Only if you want to get your head chopped off? 

Hey Accouch, ever thought about starting your own thread?


----------



## acouch

in what way wiseguy ?
ac


----------



## acouch

good morning all
today's road chart
have a great day, and good trades
ac

this chart seems going well into time with price atm..
takes longer to do, hopefully it will settle down a bit.

will update eod chart at the weekend to keep you in the loop,
on the bigger picture


----------



## Trembling Hand

Boy that order book is thin at times today. Bit scary


----------



## acouch

good morning all
Monday's road map
have a great weekend and take care
ac


----------



## acouch

updated eod spi chart..
as you can see that the red set of ML's is still in control.
resistance is at 5186,,, 
target for the spi is 3936..we will see how it goes..
26th October 2008 is 360 cd's from the all time high..

a wild bear out there that is for sure...
have a fun weekend
ac


----------



## professor_frink

anyone else a little concerned at how the shifted goalposts are going to play out on the index futs today? If the arbs can no longer buy futs and short stock, this could see the futs all over the shop this morning. Or maybe not.

Think I might just take the day off and withdraw the small amount of liquidity I provide. Any others doing the same?


----------



## Trembling Hand

professor_frink said:


> anyone else a little concerned at how the shifted goalposts are going to play out on the index futs today? If the arbs can no longer buy futs and short stock, this could see the futs all over the shop this morning. Or maybe not.
> 
> Think I might just take the day off and withdraw the small amount of liquidity I provide. Any others doing the same?




Yes I'm taking a wait and see approach. But I have the same concerns. The SPI is already the thinnest market still trading. This surely can't help.

But then again it my help my P & L (the P part hopefully) If there is nothing stopping the shares and futs from running we may get some very big ranges


----------



## professor_frink

Trembling Hand said:


> Yes I'm taking a wait and see approach. But I have the same concerns. The SPI is already the thinnest market still trading. This surely can't help.
> 
> But then again it my help my P & L (the P part hopefully) If there is nothing stopping the shares and futs from running we may get some very big ranges




yeah we will probably see some great ranges, but the liquidity is what I'm really concerned about. Personally I'd like to see full blown chaos today. I'm not a fan of intervention, so hope it blows up and makes things worse for a few days until the rules are changed back. I liked the old rules. All of my setups were developed with the old rules, and I hope this doesn't change things too much


----------



## professor_frink

And I thought that the unscheduled "maintenance" in the middle of the day during August last year was as unprofessional as you could get.............


----------



## Edwood

professor_frink said:


> And I thought that the unscheduled "maintenance" in the middle of the day during August last year was as unprofessional as you could get.............




what a crock hey - dodgy business


----------



## professor_frink

Edwood said:


> what a crock hey - dodgy business




morning Ed, good to see you back!

Think my day in this market's over. Just glad I didn't have a position on when it all went down


----------



## Edwood

hiya Prof    been keeping my head down for fear it could get lopped off!


----------



## acouch

good morning all
today;s road map
have a great day, and good trades
ac


----------



## acouch

afternoon all
3 -10min intraday charts to show you how the ML's worked on these..
enjoy your evening..
ac

hmm cant post usual way..

http://s179.photobucket.com/albums/w292/acouch_2007/?action=view&current=spiblah10.png

http://s179.photobucket.com/albums/w292/acouch_2007/?action=view&current=spiiblah11.png

http://s179.photobucket.com/albums/w292/acouch_2007/?action=view&current=spiblah12.png


----------



## acouch

good  morning all,
just thought i would post the same chart as the ones above
for those that where interested,
so you could see how it continued to perform on sycom.
ac


----------



## acouch

good morning all
todays road map
have a great day, and good trades
ac


----------



## acouch

good morning all
todays road map
have a great day, and good trades
ac


----------



## nat

hi acouch ,thanx for those charts showing how there made ,so do you update the charts every morning before open on the 10 min chart? and also through out the day as it progresses or once done for day let it run 24 hours before updating again? Also i see sometimes you use the top of a shadow on candle and  at other times the body of candle ,is it line of best fit used at times, thanx for your continued input. Nathan


----------



## acouch

nat said:


> hi acouch ,thanx for those charts showing how there made ,so do you update the charts every morning before open on the 10 min chart? and also through out the day as it progresses or once done for day let it run 24 hours before updating again? Also i see sometimes you use the top of a shadow on candle and  at other times the body of candle ,is it line of best fit used at times, thanx for your continued input. Nathan




Morning nat,

the road map is updated after close of sycom i do not touch that chart then till the following day..the ML's are set from beginning of contract....the candle shadow/body lands where it may..the lines are there first..
have a nice day
ac


----------



## acouch

good morning all
today's road map
have a great day, and good trades
ac


----------



## acouch

good morning all
Monday's road map
have a great weekend and take care
ac


----------



## acouch

good morning all
todays road map
have a great day, and good trades
ac


----------



## James Austin

indicative opens on the majors dn as much as 10% @ 9.46am

brace yourself


----------



## Edwood

lovely fade off the open....


----------



## Edwood

200pts off the lows now - great days


----------



## acouch

good morning all
todays road map
have a great day, and good trades
ac


----------



## acouch

good morning all
todays road map
havea great day, and good trades
ac


----------



## acouch

good morning all
today's road map
have a great day, and good trades
ac


----------



## acouch

good morning all
Monday's road map
have a great weekend and take care
ac


----------



## acouch

good morning all
road map for today
have a great day and good trades
ac


----------



## Edwood

last one out pls switch off the lights


----------



## acouch

good morning all
today's road map
have a great day, and good trades
ac


----------



## acouch

just a update of our eod spi chart
to keep you in the loop, doing its job
very nicely..
ac


----------



## acouch

good morning all
today's road map
have a great day, and good trades
ac


----------



## acouch

good morning all
today's road map
price is getting very close
now to our target on the eod chart
at 3936..
have a great day and good trading

ac


----------



## Trembling Hand

HUGE Iceberg orders!!!!!!!


----------



## Bronte

Big Number 4000 Low


----------



## Bronte

3999 Low and now a 70 point rally.
You have to love the SPI


----------



## Bronte

Make that a 100 point rally in well under one hour.


----------



## MRC & Co

If you aren't making big money in the SPI lately, you have to be the all time worst intraday trader.  It is GIVING away money!


----------



## Bronte

Yes, in 14 years of 'Trading the SPI' these are the most incredible days we have seen.


----------



## Bronte

Bronte said:


> Big Number 4000 Low



Big Number Double Bottom Low (3999 / 3996)
Followed by a 32 point rally.


----------



## Trembling Hand

MRC & Co said:


> If you aren't making big money in the SPI lately, you have to be the all time worst intraday trader.  It is GIVING away money!




Someone must be losing. We can't all be winning


----------



## Bronte

Bronte said:


> Big Number Double Bottom Low (3999 / 3996)
> Followed by a 32 point rally.



Yes; you guessed it 
Big Number Triple Bottom Low (3999 / 3996 / 3999)
Followed by a 39 point rally.....


----------



## Bronte

Our retracements are noticeably getting smaller.
This time we only had a 60 point rally.
Support to be broken in 'Happy Hour' ?


----------



## Bronte

Bronte said:


> Our retracements are noticeably getting smaller.
> This time we only had a 60 point rally.
> Support to be broken in 'Happy Hour' ?



Yes, Support broken 3960 Low


----------



## MRC & Co

Trembling Hand said:


> Someone must be losing. We can't all be winning




Paper loosing more than just it's edges?

I don't think one single prop trader could be down, I would love to know how much these firms are taking from the SPI at the moment.  From the looks of faces, I imagine it would be quite a pot of gold!


----------



## Trembling Hand

MRC & Co said:


> Paper loosing more than just it's edges?
> 
> I don't think one single prop trader could be down, I would love to know how much these firms are taking from the SPI at the moment.  From the looks of faces, I imagine it would be quite a pot of gold!




Bloody hell hey?? What a day!!

See the volume?

Just another day in Paradise


----------



## skyQuake

Trembling Hand said:


> Bloody hell hey?? What a day!!
> 
> See the volume?
> 
> Just another day in Paradise




Did you catch postmarket? Paradise indeed


----------



## MRC & Co

Yeh, unfortunately, I missed half the day.

Volume has been out of control.  

What the hell is going on?  You reckon this is large instos actually trying to trade with those lots, or that much panic you have THAT many instos dumping (either long or short) at market out of global macro positions? 

Weird, either way, a lot of people HAVE to be loosing a packet of $$$.  Idiots.


----------



## Trembling Hand

skyQuake said:


> Did you catch postmarket? Paradise indeed



 Yeah the trouble was I was thinking it was coming sooner than it did. Lost a bit trying to get in too soon. I had to keep spewing up my position.

But the run in the end well and truly made up for it 



MRC & Co said:


> Volume has been out of control.
> 
> What the hell is going on?  You reckon this is large instos actually trying to trade with those lots, or that much panic you have THAT many instos dumping (either long or short) at market out of global macro positions?
> 
> Weird, either way, a lot of people HAVE to be loosing a packet of $$$.  Idiots.




Well the extra volatility always brings more volume on the futs but I reckon its that god dam stupid short ban. Where else they going to go? And they have to sell twice as much $ value to hedge the reduced beta of picking an individual stock. then the longs have to try and take up the extra volume. F'en mess that short ban. Have a look at the jump in OI since the ban.

Though if they want to make the best scalping conditions I have ever seen why complain??


----------



## Bronte

Bronte said:


> Big Number Triple Bottom Low (3999 / 3996 / 3999)



Todays 2min SPI chart:


----------



## skyQuake

That first test at 4000 was awesome. Any more that the warrant marketmakers pushed that level


----------



## acouch

good morning al
today's road map
have a great day, and good trades
ac


----------



## Freddo

Hello been flat out and haven't logged on since May !

Still loving the gaps and I am getting to the stage if there isn't one I'm taking the day off.

Picked up vols 1 and 2 of the Definitive Guide to Futures Trading by Larry Williams yesterday for $9.90 I figure even I don't get anything from them I'll be able to get over double that for them on eBay LOL

Catchya


----------



## Bronte

"Welcome back Freddo",
Absolute bargain buy


----------



## Freddo

Bronte said:


> "Welcome back Freddo",
> Absolute bargain buy




Hi Bronte,
I thought it was!, the original owner paid $97.00 per book from SFE (the receipt was inside one of the books).

Copy of How To Make Profits In Commodities was there as well for $8.00
so I'm going to buy it today and give it to one of my kids to sell because I already have a copy.

Have been sitting here watching a two minute chart trying to figure out
if I could spot anything.

Nice breakout session mid morning and a couple of what I would call swing trades. Don't know if the trades would have been worth while I just looked at entries once the lows were broken haven't worked out STOPs just tinkering really.

Regards
Freddo


----------



## Bronte

Freddo said:


> Hi Bronte,
> I thought it was!, the original owner paid $97.00 per book from SFE (the receipt was inside one of the books).
> Copy of How To Make Profits In Commodities was there as well for $8.00



I paid $94.95 many moons ago for my copy Freddo
You would easily make a profit on Ebay 
Larry Williams books are also pricey.
Well worth the read tho. IMHO


----------



## acouch

good morning
eod chart to keep you in the loop
enjoy your day
ac


----------



## acouch

good morning
today's road map
have a great day and good trades
ac


----------



## acouch

good morning all
today's road map
have a great day and good trading
ac


----------



## acouch

good morning
todays road map
have a great day and good trades.
ac


----------



## acouch

well, thought i had better post the eod chart again
to keep you in the loop..
as you can see she couldn't get over the round no of 4500..
if she cant hold the 3936..thing will be grim
and she will be heading for 2956..
have a great day..and take care
ac


----------



## acouch

good morning all
today's road map
have a great day and good trades
ac


----------



## Trembling Hand

Bloody hell!!!!!!

Is this the worlds thinnest order book today!!


----------



## Broadway

Yea, the spread is getting to 5 ticks at times.

What I didnt see coming was the 200 point gap close to yesterday avo's close.

Copper and oil went up last night, and the US went ok. BHP and RIO opened up somewhat but was all down hill from there.

Unless there is some new news about them, or possibly being dumped by funds?:dunno:


----------



## MRC & Co

Yeh, more of a position trading day today.  Last little bit has been fukced, trading range with a stack of false breaks.  Staying out for now.  Lot of guys fukcing around squeezing.  

Yeh, RIO and BHP must be getting dumped by big funds.


----------



## acouch

god morning all
Monday's road map
have a great day
ac


----------



## acouch

good morning all
today's road map
havea great day, and good trades
ac


----------



## acouch

good morning,
no point doing road map today, as chart is the same as yesterday..
lis is still at 4237..
have a great day,and good trades
ac


----------



## MRC & Co

This has got to be the worst day in the SPI yet!  Spreads running, flicks, dribbling trends with no counter ticks to enter, trends with plenty of counter ticks to enter and then a bunch of flicks afterwards just to get you out again!


----------



## acouch

good morning all
today's road map
have a great day and good trades
ac


----------



## acouch

good morning all
today's road map
have a great day, and good trades
ac


----------



## Trembling Hand

Bugger me!!! I picked the opening rise and rode all the way to the top very nicely.

BUT I didn't pick the roll over and taking out of yesterdays lows!!


----------



## skyQuake

Haha, I covered shorts too early, saw that flag on the 5min with the target wayyyy below lows... Cash failed a retest of its lows, doesn't look too good for our markets


----------



## MRC & Co

Yeh, what a weird day!  

Hard to even get on the break to new lows as it was just flicks in a thin book!

Weird price action now, which way is it heading?

Forming a half azz descending triangle now with volume drying up nicely (then again, that tends to happen at this time of day), S&P coming off (but we have already come off a lot further).  Little fakeout in a dead lunch period of that micro tripple bottom we already formed, cash forming a small flag.

Got a coin?  Think I'll sit this out, either look for a break of that false break or for this to be a base forming intraday lows.  Lot will probably depend on the S&P, have been following it over the last couple/few days.


----------



## acouch

good morning all
Mondat's road map
have a great weekend and take care
ac


----------



## MRC & Co

I gather you actually trade the SPI acouch.

What method do you use?


----------



## Tinpusher

Gents (and Ladies),

I lived in Canada for quite a few years until recently and day-traded the ES on the CME via Refco over there.

I've returned home, repatriated the money and would like to trade the SPI (and occasionally the ES if being up that late suits).

1. Can you recommend a broker (in Australia, I DO NOT WANT to keep an account in USD) that will let me trade the SPI regularly and the ES occasionally (Man Financial has been recommended?)?

2 Also a live streaming charting source that will give me the SPI and American Indices live.

Thank you in advance.

Tinny the Tube Sorter.


----------



## acouch

MRC & Co said:


> I gather you actually trade the SPI acouch.
> 
> What method do you use?




morning MRC,

yes i trade the spi and the euro..

for scalping i use a 10 tic, or a 1 range chart

for targets i use a bigger time frame range chart..
road map gives you the trend for the day,eg: what side price
is with LIS(orange line) and support/resistance
charts enclosed are from sierrachart, the other is a ft chart

ac


----------



## acouch

the never ending spi eod chart to keep you in the loop..
have a great day
ac


----------



## MRC & Co

Don't exactly understand, but thx acouch.

Tinpusher, IB is great for execution and if you don't mind minimal support from a broker then is perfect for what you want.  

Charting, IB provides all the live data and a lot use either Amibroker or NinjaTrader from what I am aware.


----------



## Tinpusher

MRC & Co. _*Many thanks for the reply but isn't IB an account held is USD?*_
I don't want to hold anything in USD as I feel the 'flight to safety' to the USD will be rather short lived.


----------



## acouch

Tinpusher said:


> MRC & Co. _*Many thanks for the reply but isn't IB an account held is USD?*_
> I don't want to hold anything in USD as I feel the 'flight to safety' to the USD will be rather short lived.




no you have a option to hold in aussie dollar
ac


----------



## Tinpusher

Thank you kindly gents.


----------



## MRC & Co

Tinpusher said:


> Thank you kindly gents.




No problems.  All AUD, unless of course you are going to trade the S&P or another US instrument, then as with any broker, you will need to convert for the duration of the trade.


----------



## Trembling Hand

LOL sometimes this game is just to nice.


----------



## MRC & Co

Trembling Hand said:


> LOL sometimes this game is just to nice.




lol, FREE MONEY!


----------



## Broadway

Anybody else amazed by whats happening in Asia today?

On top of serious losses already, Japan down 6-7%, Hong Kong 9-10%, Phillipines limit down 10% etc.

And Im not seeing any pros entering anywhere. Not the serious volume Ive seen on previous slides.

There's only so many 10 % down days left before we hit zero.

I wonder what happens then..


----------



## Trembling Hand

Broadway said:


> And Im not seeing any pros entering anywhere.


----------



## skyQuake

Broadway said:


> Anybody else amazed by whats happening in Asia today?
> 
> On top of serious losses already, Japan down 6-7%, Hong Kong 9-10%, Phillipines limit down 10% etc.
> 
> And Im not seeing any pros entering anywhere. Not the serious volume Ive seen on previous slides.
> 
> There's only so many 10 % down days left before we hit zero.
> 
> I wonder what happens then..




Last few months has been an orderly exodus for the exits. We are seeing the beginnings of a panic now. I reckon there are a lot of long term investors bailing out - They've experience years of free divvies cashflow... But now that's in danger as well as their capital.


----------



## MRC & Co

Yeh, there is no doubt about it, panc is really setting in now.  I thought it would be another several months at least until we saw some kind of true panic set in.  But obviously not.  It is brutal watching it every day, great for us scalpers, but to think about all those with their life savings turning to nothing, is sad.


----------



## Broadway

Trembling Hand said:


>




I mean large block trades, or clusters of volume to signify the start or ends of trends. But ofcourse professionals could be using smaller volumes as well.

eg, there was a trend down most of today which started at 12 midday, which I suspected coming because of a large block trade on BHP at that time (amongst other charts).  This trend also included a 2000 point drop in the HSI, which I'm sure you noticed TH. (and no I didnt catch the whole trend).

SPI went down 200 points after this BHP hint (took 7 hours). I felt the trend ended when SPX gave me some volume around 7pm tonight. SPI up 70 so far from the spx hint. These hints I call pros. Helps a bit with the spi. Doesn't work all the time ofcourse. But when multiple parrallel running charts show large block trades, I'll see that as an entry.


----------



## Trembling Hand

Broadway said:


> . But when multiple parrallel running charts show large block trades, I'll see that as an entry.




Broadway who executes large block trades??

And why do you give weight to one side when its takes two to trade. Obviously two equally large players.


----------



## acouch

good morning all
today's road map
have a great day and good trades
ac


----------



## Broadway

Trembling Hand said:


> Broadway who executes large block trades??
> 
> And why do you give weight to one side when its takes two to trade. Obviously two equally large players.




I borrowed the idea from here

http://traderfeed.blogspot.com/2007/02/how-you-can-track-stock-markets-large.html.

and about half way down this link, under block trades.

http://highprobability.blogspot.com/2007/03/high-probability-trade-setups.html

I admit it doesn't work all the time, especially on the spi's volume chart, but bhp and rio give good hints towards future spi moves.
Im not sure exactly how it happens, but I thought it was 1 professional on 1 side who sees the next long trend coming, and on the other side is multiple smaller traders who dont see it coming. But happy for you to educate me.


----------



## Broadway

The spx entry seemed to work well last night. I couldnt stay awake for the whole thing, but the world just seems to be 1 big long 24 hour chart these days. Indexes open and close but they mostly fall in line eventually.

Serious TV time goes on with these trades. Very boring.


----------



## MRC & Co

How did the SPI trade today TH?  I hope it was a flicky, wide spread, horrible day.  ha ha, missed it on my sick bed.


----------



## acouch

good morning all
todays road map
have a great day, and good trades
ac

p.s hope you are feeling better mrc


----------



## MRC & Co

Thx acouch, I am a bit.  Ready for a big day on the SPI


----------



## acouch

good morning all
todays road map
have a great day and good trades
ac


----------



## RobinHood

how are you scalpers doing on a day like today?

I haven't been watching the whole day, but just now I've seen lots of icebergs 69, 160, hitting bid / taking the offer and price not moving up/down.


----------



## MRC & Co

Not that good, but not bad either.  Up 43 ticks, 123 round trips at 3 bucks per round.

Just got cained though, S&P broke out of it's flag, SPI went also, loaded up long and got squeezed, lost 30+ ticks on that.  At least there aren't huge spreads today, compared to last couple weeks anyways, so it's possible to scalp and still keep your average winners above your average loosers!

Someone was capping the SPI earlier, selling into those trying to buy the S&P first rally.


----------



## acouch

good morning all
today's road map,nos not much different from yesterday
except a few more upside. and a few less downside..
lis has risen up 30 to 3997.
have a great day, and good trades
ac


----------



## MRC & Co

Yesterday was a pretty good day in the end, easily 200+ ticks to take away on only 1-2 lots.

Today was good at the open, but rest of the day has been a heap of false breaks of false breaks and hard trading, just taking little bits here and there to keep it in the green.  Up 33 ticks so far after 83 round trips (missed the open ).


----------



## acouch

good morning all
Monday's road map
have a great weekend and take care
ac


----------



## MRC & Co

Tough one on the SPI today, how any of you other traders go?

I managed 54 points after 169 round trips.  So not bad, but most of that came in the morning.  After that, was extremelly tough.


----------



## Reealjrd

I don't know much about SPI but i can say that the market for Monday 03.11.2008 is uncertain and vol ital.


----------



## acouch

good morning all,
today's road map
have a great day, and good trades
ac


----------



## acouch

good morning all
todays road map
have a great day, and good trades
ac


----------



## acouch

good morning all
today's road map
have a great day, and good trades
ac


----------



## acouch

good morning all
todays road map
have a great day and good trades
ac


----------



## acouch

good morning all
Monday's road map
as you can see the close on this that ib,closed spi at
7.20am  at 4086....naughty..
spi closed 8.00am at 4148...
have a great weekend, and take care
ac


----------



## Joolean

Hi all,

hope your trading's going well.

I checked into IB to sign up for data so I can sim trade over my holidays and found it requires $10k down.
I'm not looking to trade but want access to intraday spi and DOM data only, not asx. I read on the IB Australia site that the SFE data is free. Can anyone confirm that and are there any charges for the DOM?

Given that that $10k would cost me $45 per month in interest, it'd still be cheaper than the $125 a month that eSignal charges.
Is there anyone other than those two that provide intraday spi data?

I recall TH saying he stores the DOM data for use in Ninja Trader also. Is the DOM recordable in real time or can it be backfilled?

Regards,
Julian.


----------



## acouch

Joolean said:


> Hi all,
> 
> hope your trading's going well.
> 
> I checked into IB to sign up for data so I can sim trade over my holidays and found it requires $10k down.
> I'm not looking to trade but want access to intraday spi and DOM data only, not asx. I read on the IB Australia site that the SFE data is free. Can anyone confirm that and are there any charges for the DOM?
> 
> Given that that $10k would cost me $45 per month in interest, it'd still be cheaper than the $125 a month that eSignal charges.
> Is there anyone other than those two that provide intraday spi data?
> 
> I recall TH saying he stores the DOM data for use in Ninja Trader also. Is the DOM recordable in real time or can it be backfilled?
> 
> Regards,
> Julian.




morning julian,
all exchanges that are marked on ib are free...ones that are not, you are charged a small fee per month..ib doesnt have any other charges..

the only place that i can think of for free data  are IG and CMC ..but i dont know if you can sim trade with those
have a good day
ac


----------



## acouch

good morning all,
seeing the road map is now presented in a different format,derived the same way of old, but i thought you might like
to see how the 24hr chart looks after its long day..
ps. day not finished as yet..
ac


----------



## acouch

good morning all
today's road map
have a great day, and good trades
ac


----------



## Joolean

Thanks ac.

I have an account with CMC but really need volume data and want to be able to store it as well. I use Amibroker which I can replay at night as I can't watch during the day at the moment.

With Ninja Trader, am I right in thinking that it needs to record real time for DOM playback?

Cheers,
Julian.


----------



## acouch

Joolean said:


> Thanks ac.
> 
> I have an account with CMC but really need volume data and want to be able to store it as well. I use Amibroker which I can replay at night as I can't watch during the day at the moment.
> 
> With Ninja Trader, am I right in thinking that it needs to record real time for DOM playback?
> 
> Cheers,
> Julian.




you have pay per month for ninja trader..quite expensive...but very good..

i use   www.bracket-trader.com with the combo of ib..suits my needs, and a once of payment

ac


----------



## acouch

good morning all
todays road map,
have a great day, and good trades
ac

ps market closed at 3924..map done a bit early


----------



## Joolean

Thanks ac,

how much is Bracket Trader? I couldn't find a price anywhere on the site.

Cheers,
Julian.


----------



## acouch

not expensive  joelene,

i bought mine so long ago i cant remember,
but as i said..it is a once of price..
i think i paid around 100/150 usd for it..in those days..
i am sure the price is on the site..

but it is free for us futs..but a limit on how many contracts you can take
but spi and othereare not on there for that you buy or make a donation ..
so you can download it and play with it and see how you go..
no limit for freebie 
ac


----------



## Wysiwyg

acouch said:


> good morning all
> todays road map,
> have a great day, and good trades
> ac
> 
> ps market closed at 3924..map done a bit early




Hello acouch, basically could you explain what the grids signify and why is it a road map.

Please.


----------



## Joolean

Haha. Joelene? lol. Reminds me of that song.

Cheers ac. I trawled every inch of his site and couldn't find a price. Regardless I downloaded it and found it when I went to register it. $100US.

One of the tickers is the SPI! They must have added it at some stage. Half my luck. I connected it to the TWS demo and it pulls up the same numbers as the December SPI contract so I figure it's all working ok.
Now I just have to work out what all the pretty colours in IB and BT actually mean. 

Thanks for you help.
Julian (male). Not Joelene (female).


----------



## acouch

Wysiwyg said:


> Hello acouch, basically could you explain what the grids signify and why is it a road map.
> 
> Please.




the grids as you call them are made up of
Medianlines..the web site for further investigation is
http://www.medianline.com/home.html

why it is a road, well it gives you support/resistance to
watch for a turn in price..
the red line of a day is what i call the Line In the Sand / LIS
that tells you what side of the market to be on..
hope this helps
ac


----------



## acouch

good morning all
todays road map
have a great day, and good trades
ac


----------



## MRC & Co

This is the WORST day so far on the SPI I have personally EVER seen!!!!!!!

What a BS market!!!!!


----------



## Wysiwyg

Thank you acouch.


----------



## Joolean

One more question ac.

From what I can gather, IB pay bank rate interest -0.5% on balances > $11k. Can you confirm this?
I was concerned about transferring that cash from my savings account because of the interest it earns but if the above is true, then the interest paid by IB is practically the same.
I'm use to CMC who don't pay Jack on accounts < $20k.

Cheers,
Jules.


----------



## acouch

Joolean said:


> One more question ac.
> 
> From what I can gather, IB pay bank rate interest -0.5% on balances > $11k. Can you confirm this?
> I was concerned about transferring that cash from my savings account because of the interest it earns but if the above is true, then the interest paid by IB is practically the same.
> I'm use to CMC who don't pay Jack on accounts < $20k.
> 
> Cheers,
> Jules.




hopefully jules,
the interest rate is of no concern..and that you make heaps., and ib return is so cheap..on spi..
you have to spend money to make money 
ac


----------



## Joolean

What can I say, I'm very frugal. 

I'm only using IB for data so it's an expense, not an income unfortunately. I'll get there at some stage. 

Cheers,
Jules.


----------



## acouch

Joolean said:


> What can I say, I'm very frugal.
> 
> I'm only using IB for data so it's an expense, not an income unfortunately. I'll get there at some stage.
> 
> Cheers,
> Jules.




i can understand that, when first starting off,
but i dont think you will get live feed any cheaper than ib 

ac


----------



## acouch

good morning all
toady's road map
have a great day , and good trades
ac


----------



## acouch

for interest
how the road map above looked after its 24hr
trading.
once again ib closed off early,, must be a sat.morning thing..
spi closed at 3693..
ac


----------



## acouch

good morning all
Monday's road map
have a great weekend, and take care
ac


----------



## julius

Hi MRC,

If you get a chance could you post a profit/loss distribution for individual trades, similar to the charts TremblingHand has posted before ?

Interested to see what yours looks like compared with TH.



MRC & Co said:


> Tough one on the SPI today, how any of you other traders go?
> 
> I managed 54 points after 169 round trips.  So not bad, but most of that came in the morning.  After that, was extremelly tough.


----------



## MRC & Co

Yeh, will send it to you.  Don't have any with me ATM, in a diff city.  Not sure if I can post one to the site (given I am trading a company account), so will have to PM you.

I try to get a small edge in both win% and average win to average loss.  Much more of a scalper than position trader like quite a few intraday traders.  

Prob looks somewhat similar to TH, but not quite the large win outliers and more large loss outliers when I get caught on the wrong side of a flick or sweep (plenty of them lately in this rubbish market and no stops doesn't help one bit).   

Usually all 1 lots, sometimes pyramid upto 4 with a max of 6.  So will send you the scatter chart per contract and one per trade, which will give more of an idea as it includes pyramiding etc.


----------



## julius

That would be great, thanks alot.

I am making the transition from intraday position to more of a scalping style myself.


----------



## julius

btw... why no stops ? Company policy or is it a strategy thing ?


----------



## MRC & Co

Na, no stops cause of SFE.  

So all has to be done mentally and manually.


----------



## >Apocalypto<

MRC & Co said:


> Na, no stops cause of SFE.
> 
> So all has to be done mentally and manually.




really! can u use orders to close?

I am long one contract and I put in a order to sell 1 contract 15 points down. so if hit it sells out my long position?

Cheers


----------



## MRC & Co

>Apocalypto< said:


> really! can u use orders to close?
> 
> I am long one contract and I put in a order to sell 1 contract 15 points down. so if hit it sells out my long position?
> 
> Cheers




Na, can't use stop orders to close, except profit targets (so only a sell order above market price or a buy order below market price).  

Though I have heard something about different exchanges which do not hold stop orders but them being held on your execution platform instead.  Didn't trade SPI much through IB, so maybe you can use them on it..........


----------



## >Apocalypto<

MRC & Co said:


> Na, can't use stop orders to close, except profit targets (so only a sell order above market price or a buy order below market price).
> 
> Though I have heard something about different exchanges which do not hold stop orders but them being held on your execution platform instead.  Didn't trade SPI much through IB, so maybe you can use them on it..........




that could make life interesting!


----------



## acouch

good morning all
today's road map
have a great day, and good trades
ac


----------



## acouch

good morning all
today's road map
have a great day and good trades
ac


----------



## MRC & Co

How any of you SPI traders go today?

A small fortune was there to be made!  Unfortunately, my loot wasn't quite the treasure.


----------



## Rockon2

Ye did ok on one break of pattern.. missed the big move tho..

always tonight, and tomorrow. etc etc ...


----------



## MRC & Co

Good stuff Rockon!  Yeh, that level was like a tripple top on the 1 min chart, I tried fading it on the 4th attempt (the actual breakout)!  

Came back and retested that exact level twice and it acted as strong support and bounced off.  I faded neither.  

ha ha.  Caught up in the mess that is the order book at those times.  Need to start watching the important levels closer and fading any bounce off them.  Think I'm too used to the SPI false breaks, so any legit bounce must be fake.  ha ha.  Go figure.


----------



## acouch

eod chart posted in october..below..we are very close to
support at 3345..to be aware of, i would expect a bounce of that..
we will see what the trading gods offer 

road map for today..
have a great day and good trades..
ac


----------



## acouch

good morning all
today,s road map
have a great day and good trades
ac
eod chart..
well price cut through support like a knife through soft butter,
next support on eod chart is at 2956, and if that should go the only other one i have left is at 2252 
ac


----------



## MRC & Co

Hope you SPI boys rode that with your ears pinned back!  :bowser:


----------



## acouch

MRC & Co said:


> Hope you SPI boys rode that with your ears pinned back!  :bowser:




above the lis it was a long..came back and tested it once..
lis is worth its weight in gold
ac ;-)


----------



## acouch

good morning all
Monday;s road map
have a great weekend and keep safe
ac

price close on sycom was  3535


----------



## acouch

spi eod chart to keep you in the loop,
strong resistance at 3921,
have a great day
ac


----------



## acouch

good morning all
today's road map
have a great day and good trades
ac


----------



## MRC & Co

Here is a tip from TH which I did not take heed.  

On days where the SPI is very thin, with a lot of bids/asks being pulled, wide spreads, low volume - then trade off the charts.

Today, descending triangle, broke, retested the trendline and then bounced.  Formed a bearish wedge, broke down to the target.  Around lunch, there was a symmetrical triangle, which again broke to the target.  Sorry, don't have the chart infront of me so this may not be exact, but remember watching it respecting trendlines, hitting pattern targets etc etc.  VERY unusual for the SPI, but on days like today, may be extremelly useful for you SPI traders.

Hope this helps someone.

Cheers


----------



## Rockon2

Didnt get a trade on the Jo (xjo) all day,, crap patterns i thought,, 
But caught the ride down on the FTSE late this arvo,, humdinger 

I also caught the ride up on Jo Friday arvo,, that was a beauty, then just before our mkt closed went long on ftse and DJ ..  TYMFTR  hehe:


----------



## acouch

good morning all
today's road map
have a great day, and good trades
ac


----------



## MRC & Co

Today even dodgier than the last two.

Look at the downwards trend channel it is respecting on the one minute.  Beautiful.


----------



## Rockon2

I only caught bits of the trade today... but here is the chart showing break and the measured patten..


----------



## MRC & Co

Yes, well the one I am talking about is only in the morning.  It is respected on both sides numerous times.

But that upbreak of the trendline before the break down, got me long!  

That was vintage SPI.  

Hope you caught the downleg rockon, unfortunately, I am not a position trader, and though it looked very weak, I didn't have the conviction to hold!  

A decent day nonetheless.


----------



## acouch

good morning all
today;s road map
have a great day, and good trades
ac


----------



## acouch

good morning all,
Monday's road map
have a great weekend and take care
ac


----------



## Joolean

Do any of you guys monitor the open interest on the spi and derive any useful info from it for day trading?

Jules.


----------



## MRC & Co

Joolean said:


> Do any of you guys monitor the open interest on the spi and derive any useful info from it for day trading?
> 
> Jules.




Personally, I don't.

I've heard TH mention it sometimes though, so he may, but unsure.


----------



## Rockon2

Joolean said:


> Do any of you guys monitor the open interest on the spi and derive any useful info from it for day trading?
> 
> Jules.






I cant get that info on IG mkts,,,,, wish i could ...


Did ok today ,, went long from the 3670 level and exited when it hit he 3690 level,, 15 points net. ty..

Interestingly though, i picked up on the pattern first from the actual xjo (webiress ) and not IG ...


----------



## Trembling Hand

SPI open interest available daily here,

http://www.asx.com.au/sfe/daily_monthly_reports.htm


----------



## skyQuake

Don't think u can get Open interest except for daily levels. 

IG Cash and WebIress cash is different cause IG is pretty much just SPI - a few ticks, whereas webiress XJO cash is cash


----------



## Joolean

Thanks all,

that was quick. You must just all be waiting for me to ask a question so you can pounce on it. No? Oh well. 

I'm using historical tick data in simulation replays and was thinking of buying historical eod for the open interest information as it didn't come with my tick data. It's not expensive but was just wondering if it was worth it.
I think I'll get it and just monitor it anyway.

Well I didn't meet IB's minimum liquidity requirements (even though I've got the account opening capital and told them I'm only after a paper trading account) and eSignal don't provide market depth for the spi. Bollox!
No drama really, I'll just lie next time I apply. 

For you dom privileged traders, is there much pulling of orders from the market or can you rely on the dom as a true indicator of the support/resistance at various bid/ask levels?
I.e. Will the big boys place a safety blanket of heavy bids to give the illusion of support only to pull the rug out and does this happen often enough to shake trust in the dom?

Hope you keep up your blog TH. I like your honesty.

Cheers,
Jules.


----------



## acouch

good morning all
today's road map
have a great day and good trades
ac


----------



## Trembling Hand

Joolean said:


> For you dom privileged traders, is there much pulling of orders from the market or can you rely on the dom as a true indicator of the support/resistance at various bid/ask levels?
> I.e. Will the big boys place a safety blanket of heavy bids to give the illusion of support only to pull the rug out and does this happen often enough to shake trust in the dom?




Have a guess?

If you need some help, 
https://www.aussiestockforums.com/forums/showthread.php?t=13549


----------



## Joolean

Cheers TH,

that answers it perfectly.

I had read this article which gives an example of how a large order might be placed and found it very interesting.
http://alphatrends.blogspot.com/2007/11/institutional-trading-benchmark.html

Anyone know what time the fed announces any interest rate changes?

Jules.


----------



## Trembling Hand

RBA interest rate ann at 2:30 Sydney time.


----------



## Joolean

Cheers.

I hope it's up as I'm in cash.


----------



## acouch

good morning all,
todays road map
have a great day and good trades
ac


----------



## acouch

good morning all,
toady's road map is the same as yesterday..
so will not bother to re post it..
have a great day, and good trades
ac


----------



## acouch

good morning all
today's road map
have a great day , and good trades
ac


----------



## noirua

:topic Most of the posts on this thread are very much beyond me. So I'll leave it all to you.

Today is the last day of the best forum competition and if you haven't votes yet there is just a little time left.
http://www.thebull.com.au/the_stockies/forums.html

Thanks


----------



## acouch

Good afternoon all
Monday's road map
have a great weekend and take care
ac


----------



## acouch

good morning all
today's road map
have a great day, and good trades
ac


----------



## acouch

good morning all,
lucky to get this up here this morning,don't know how long
i will be online..
internet/cable  problems :-(
today's road map
have a great day , and good trades
ac


----------



## acouch

morning all
today road map
have a great day and good trades
ac


----------



## MRC & Co

Well the traders LOVED that Unemployment figure today.   Worse than expected, nothing happened, then it started to dribble upwards.

Then at close, spoofs came out, wheras normally any spoof post 4:00pm would be demolished!  

With Dec contract rolling over and Christmas approaching, the SPI is officially dead!


----------



## Naked shorts

MRC & Co said:


> Well the traders LOVED that Unemployment figure today.   Worse than expected, nothing happened, then it started to dribble upwards.




*Worse *then expected? 

Forecast was 4.5% and actual was 4.3% (lower unemployment = good).
http://www.forexfactory.com/news.php?do=news&id=136104
http://www.abs.gov.au/ausstats/abs@.nsf/mf/6202.0


----------



## MRC & Co

Naked shorts said:


> *Worse *then expected?
> 
> Forecast was 4.5% and actual was 4.3% (lower unemployment = good).
> http://www.forexfactory.com/news.php?do=news&id=136104
> http://www.abs.gov.au/ausstats/abs@.nsf/mf/6202.0




Fukcin squawk box, that rediculous piece of **** actually gets paid to read out this information!!!!!!!!

Reuters was down so had to rely on it.

What a joke.


----------



## acouch

just thought you might like to see how the road map has progressed during the day and into this evening,
as when posted the nos are all crunched up 
ac


----------



## acouch

good morning all
today;s road map
have a great day, and good trades
ac


----------



## Trembling Hand

What a game hey!!!

80 down in 30 min.


----------



## skc

How's this for a quote from US Senator Reid on failing to reach agreement on auto bailout plan...

_"It's over with. I dread looking at Wall Street tomorrow. It's not going to be a pleasant sight"_


----------



## Trembling Hand

skc said:


> How's this for a quote from US Senator Reid on failing to reach agreement on auto bailout plan...
> 
> _"It's over with. I dread looking at Wall Street tomorrow. It's not going to be a pleasant sight"_




As soon as a pollie starts predicting a share movement makes me want top take the other side.

will probably finish green tonight.


----------



## skc

Trembling Hand said:


> As soon as a pollie starts predicting a share movement makes me want top take the other side.
> 
> will probably finish green tonight.




I didn't know that Senate voting was supposed to take the share market into consideration anyway... classic wag the dog. 

Random trivia - in Taiwan the stock market uses Green for falling share price and red for rising.


----------



## James Austin

i notice the SFE has crashed this arvo.
i assume there is potential for a significant gap when it recommences

what are the implications for those with big positions but on the wrong side, are they somehow compensated or do they just have to accept it?

thanks
James


----------



## MRC & Co

Yeh, that was some free money.  

Funny how it took the markets so long to react after the news.

I hope the algo bots that have been ramping up all week just got an absolute flogging and get turned off!!!  They must have been the only idiots buying that fall today!


----------



## James Austin

MRC & Co said:


> Yeh, that was some free money.
> 
> Funny how it took the markets so long to react after the news.
> 
> I hope the algo bots that have been ramping up all week just got an absolute flogging and get turned off!!!  They must have been the only idiots buying that fall today!




i'm not sure if u r replying to me MRC, but i mean the SFE computer system crashed as of 5.10pm, ie. all trades halted


----------



## MRC & Co

James Austin said:


> i'm not sure if u r replying to me MRC, but i mean the SFE computer system crashed as of 5.10pm, ie. all trades halted




lol, sorry, wasn't replying to you.  Just a general comment to TH talking about a good day.

Unsure about your question, but I believe you take the losses on the chin!  Remember a similar thing happening months back near the open and everybody hitting the panic button!


----------



## RobinHood

MRC & CO said:
			
		

> Funny how it took the markets so long to react after the news




was going to ask you if you guys all had time to react to the squawk!

I just had a better look at the charts and noticed ES began declining with the vol @ about 14:14 EST. Most asian futures (HSI, STW, SPI, KS) began with the vol @ 14:16 - 14:17.

Curious - was it a good 2-3 minutes of time to react after the announcement? (I don't have access to news timestamps).

That is the advantage of a human. bots can't figure out new relationships forming/changing real-time, and if they can they wouldn't be good enough to make directional bets on it.


cheers


----------



## RobinHood

the SFE system failing at 5:10PM..
that would only affect whoever trades after hours anyway.

btw who is predominantly responsible for trading in after-hours sessions, bots?


----------



## Trembling Hand

Trembling Hand said:


> As soon as a pollie starts predicting a share movement makes me want top take the other side.
> 
> will probably finish green tonight.




Well i gotta float my own boat!!


----------



## prawn_86

Trembling Hand said:


> Well i gotta float my own boat!!




LOL TH i was just about to find that post and say well done


----------



## skc

Trembling Hand said:


> Well i gotta float my own boat!!




Got to give you to you... you have been in the market way too long!!

Now where's that emoticon of :bowing.


----------



## acouch

Afternoon all,
Monday's road map,
have a great weekend and take care
ac


----------



## MRC & Co

Yeh, PLENTY of time to react Robin.

Squawk went off about it AGES before S&P even started tanking.  Which made me wonder at first how legit it was, but then it became pretty obvious once the volume came in.  Got my full clip off finally!  Short and leveraged to the hilt on some of that move!


----------



## julius

What's this squawk box business everyones talking about ?


----------



## MRC & Co

julius said:


> What's this squawk box business everyones talking about ?




lol, it's just a guy who sits in a room full of screens all day and reads out the news as soon as it comes up.  Which is transmitted to the trading floor via speakers.


----------



## acouch

morning all
today's road map
have a great day, and good trades
ac


----------



## Naked shorts

julius said:


> What's this squawk box business everyones talking about ?






MRC & Co said:


> lol, it's just a guy who sits in a room full of screens all day and reads out the news as soon as it comes up.  Which is transmitted to the trading floor via speakers.




There is a website that offers this service to private traders
http://www.tradethenews.com/


----------



## acouch

good morning all
today's road map
March 2009  contract
have a good day, and great trades
ac


----------



## acouch

good morning all
today's road map
have a great day, and good trades
ac


----------



## acouch

good morning all,
today's road map, this will be the last one for this year,
i wish all traders a Happy Christmas, and a very
Safe and Happy New Year
ac


----------



## James Austin

that was a bit odd
the spi shot up 200 pnts in the very last min of trading,
any ideas?


----------



## Broadway

James Austin said:


> that was a bit odd
> the spi shot up 200 pnts in the very last min of trading,
> any ideas?




yep saw that, 3550 to 3775 in a minute.

Just stops getting hit, or news?


----------



## Trembling Hand

James Austin said:


> that was a bit odd
> the spi shot up 200 pnts in the very last min of trading,
> any ideas?




Just a thin market sweep. A very nasty one at that.


----------



## MRC & Co

Trembling Hand said:


> Just a thin market sweep. A very nasty one at that.




Damn, was it just a sweep, or any way of getting on it?  

Not trading SPI today, but 4:29 is usually a good time for some size to come in, though if it was just a sweep, I may be glad I missed it!


----------



## Rockon2

Sure was wierd....

Something in the wind ??


----------



## Trembling Hand

Rockon2 said:


> Sure was wierd....
> 
> Something in the wind ??



 Nah nothing weird about it. 



MRC & Co said:


> Damn, was it just a sweep, or any way of getting on it?
> 
> Not trading SPI today, but 4:29 is usually a good time for some size to come in, though if it was just a sweep, I may be glad I missed it!




Fark me I was scalping flicks long all the way up. then went short at 3558 @ 4:28 got stopped out about 15 sec before that ball buster. Had I had a bigger stop that would of been me.

Just goes to show you need to know the instrument. That last 40 -30 seconds can be completely nutz. So was thinking a sweep down was on the cards but half an eye on that high.

That was my last trade for the year. Would of been a fitting end to a great year. Being swept to buggery


----------



## Rockon2

Trembling Hand said:


> Nah nothing weird about it.
> 
> 
> 
> Fark me I was scalping flicks long all the way up. then when short at 3558 @ 4:28 got stopped out about 15 sec before that ball buster. Had I had a bigger stop that would of been me.
> 
> Just goes to show you need to know the instrument. That last 40 -30 seconds can be completely nutz. So was thinking a sweep down was on the cards but half an eye on that high.
> 
> That was my last trade for the year. Would of been a fitting end to a great year. Being swept to buggery






Ball Buster all Right !!!  


Missed teh best 1 today imo,,, turned my back to make lunch, and she had moved.. ,, and no point in chasing it,, ar well


----------



## MRC & Co

Trembling Hand said:


> Fark me I was scalping flicks long all the way up. then went short at 3558 @ 4:28 got stopped out about 15 sec before that ball buster. Had I had a bigger stop that would of been me.
> 
> Just goes to show you need to know the instrument. That last 40 -30 seconds can be completely nutz. So was thinking a sweep down was on the cards but half an eye on that high.
> 
> That was my last trade for the year. Would of been a fitting end to a great year. Being swept to buggery




ha ha, lucky ey!  I reckon I would have been doing the same, trying to fade that last couple minutes after the rally into the close!  

Enjoy the holidays!  I thought my last trade was last Friday, but just put one on AUD and gold.  ha ha ha.


----------



## Bronte

Trembling Hand said:


> Fark me I was scalping flicks long all the way up. then went short at 3558 @ 4:28 got stopped out about 15 sec before that ball buster. Had I had a bigger stop that would of been me.
> 
> Just goes to show you need to know the instrument. That last 40 -30 seconds can be completely nutz. So was thinking a sweep down was on the cards but half an eye on that high.
> 
> That was my last trade for the year. Would of been a fitting end to a great year. Being swept to buggery



I also went short at 3558 @ 4:27:00

As soon as this level was broken 3560 decided to get out at 3556 @ 4:28:06
Phew! lucky escape....Christmas pressies for some :santa::chimney


----------



## Trembling Hand

Bronte said:


> I also went short at 3558 @ 4:27:00
> 
> As soon as this level was broken 3560 decided to get out at 3556 @ 4:28:06
> Phew! lucky escape....Christmas pressies for some :santa::chimney



Yes indeed a few busted up punters on that one ::


MRC & Co said:


> ha ha, lucky ey!



 Yep!!



MRC & Co said:


> Enjoy the holidays!  I thought my last trade was last Friday, but just put one on AUD and gold.  ha ha ha.




Yeah I haven't done much today but that's it for the year.

Off to Tassie tomorrow to be dropped off in the south west corner by plane. Really looking forward to no computer. 8 Days and 150 Km to walk out & not likely to be trading on the sat phone


----------



## MRC & Co

Trembling Hand said:


> .
> & not likely to be trading on the sat phone




LOL!  

Sounds interesting though, just watched the doco on Ivan Milat, so I think I would be a bit spooked in the wilderness at the moment, then again I wouldn't survive 8 days there by myself even without a serial killer! :


----------



## Trembling Hand

MRC & Co said:


> then again I wouldn't survive 8 days there by myself even without a serial killer! :




What do you mean. Thats how you make a serial killer. Send them into the bush for 8 days.


----------



## nuking

it has been down all day so i guess may be some short coverings happens. went long at 3495.Target reached 50 ticks
should let it runs


----------



## MRC & Co

Trembling Hand said:


> What do you mean. Thats how you make a serial killer. Send them into the bush for 8 days.




ha ha, I'll remember that next time you come to Sydney!


----------



## franky87

It was a nasty surprise for me, I watched it as it happen cus I shorted a few mini-s without stops (i think i had a momentarily heart attack lol), 202pts surge in 24 seconds. Rang up my trusty advisors just as it happens and I can hear they were all scrambling on the otherside of the phone haha.

The rumour of this crazy rally was because it was the last chance for the institutions to invest before year ends. I believe the rally has got something more to do with all of the institutions' bonuses or at least make the fund's return look better. This shows how our market can be easily manipulated by the institutions in a short period of timeframe.

Amazingly, anyone at IG Markets that went long before the rally and exited at the top of the rally or shorted before the rally and got stopped out had all the positions rollbacked. What do you guys think of this roll back thing, is it justifiable?

Oh! and I end up nearly breaking even and learned that no matter how quiet the market is, I should have set a stop loss so i could breath easy next time and I don't think I will be second time lucky like this.


----------



## Trembling Hand

franky87 said:


> The rumour of this crazy rally was because it was the last chance for the institutions to invest before year ends. I believe the rally has got something more to do with all of the institutions' bonuses or at least make the fund's return look better. This shows how our market can be easily manipulated by the institutions in a short period of timeframe.




Nah mate thats Rubbish!! That was after cash close. Has no effect on any stock funds.


----------



## franky87

Trembling Hand said:


> Nah mate thats Rubbish!! That was after cash close. Has no effect on any stock funds.




That's true, I forgot about that fund's performance figure is only accounted for during 10am to 4pm trading period. Good to see you picked up my mistake quickly


----------



## jersey10

Trembling Hand said:


> Just a thin market sweep. A very nasty one at that.




what is a market sweep? if this was a thin market sweep what is a thick market sweep? what caused it? how often does it happen?


----------



## MRC & Co

jersey10 said:


> what is a market sweep? if this was a thin market sweep what is a thick market sweep? what caused it? how often does it happen?




Just means someone is buying at market.  It smashes through all the price levels in a thin market quicker because there is not as much volume at each price level to get through.

Can happen in a thick market also, but much more unlikely.


----------



## Rockon2

just looking at the FTSE,, didnt it jump at the same time ?


----------



## nuking

What a day.
100pts down in first hour::


----------



## Tobi

It was up 300pts in the first minute at 9.50am. 
I just wondering what was happening? short covering?


----------



## skyQuake

No idea, but SFE busted trades above 3900 
Not sure what CFD providers will do...


----------



## nuking

skyQuake said:


> No idea, but SFE busted trades above 3900
> Not sure what CFD providers will do...



They did quoted at that level but you got to be quick


----------



## skyQuake

nuking said:


> They did quoted at that level but you got to be quick




Yeh sucks when you got out near the top, and found out 20min later you actually still have your long and now you're offside.
Or even if you pyramided more at 3700s or even 3800s got out above 3900, and at 3630s the SFE tells u ur ****s been cancelled...


----------



## Pager

I wasnt trading today but did have look at 1 min charts on IB just know and , WTF ?????, looks like it spiked off the open a few hundred points  

Anyone know why or what happened, spreads were big as well, never have traded between Christmas and new year and just as well, this sort of action freaks you out even if you are the right side of it.


----------



## Tobi

What is the reason to cancel all trades above 3900 today? 
Is ASX/SFE just pick the number? Or is that some kind of daily range limit? 

I exited some of my long positions above that and got cancelled!


----------



## Pager

The high on the SFE site is 3898 so looks like any trade above that was cancelled as IB shows trades up to and around 4000 before a plunge back down, not many contracts traded during the mad minute but someone will be hurting and someone thanking there lucky stars i would imagine.

At 3898 thats still 271 or $6775 above the open  

May have been a computer error i would imagine if they are canceling trades.


----------



## skyQuake

Pager said:


> The high on the SFE site is 3898 so looks like any trade above that was cancelled as IB shows trades up to and around 4000 before a plunge back down, not many contracts traded during the mad minute but someone will be hurting and someone thanking there lucky stars i would imagine.
> 
> At 3898 thats still 271 or $6775 above the open
> 
> May have been a computer error i would imagine if they are canceling trades.




Actually plenty of contracts traded in that mad minute >750.
The thing is, a lot of the volume is hidden: If you bought on the way up, and then sold above 3900s, you would still be long 20min later after prices fell to 3600s after finding your 3900s trades cancelled. Alternately, if you were smart/quick/lucky enough to short near the highs, and covered at say 3800s for a nice 200tick gain, 20 minutes later you find yourself actually long at 3800s and 200ticks in the red...
SFE is a complete joke.


----------



## MRC & Co

skyQuake said:


> SFE is a complete joke.




Agree.  Complete and utter joke.


----------



## -Bevo-

Someone stuffed up, ok guys who was it?
http://www.theaustralian.news.com.au/business/story/0,28124,24852956-643,00.html


----------



## Pager

I never trade over Christmas and new year and just as well, think i would have been short around the open had i traded so could have been very expensive, the past 6 months the spi has been worse than the Hang Seng for slippage on occasion and i guess there will be many licking there wounds tonight.


----------



## acouch

morning all
todays road map
have a great day
ac


----------



## Bronte

Thank you acouch 
Let's hope it is a good year.
*SPI 2009 >>>>>*


----------



## acouch

Bronte said:


> Thank you acouch
> Let's hope it is a good year.
> *SPI 2009 >>>>>*




yes Bronte,
i wish you well in your trading year, and good health
ac


----------



## acouch

morning all,
Monday's road map
have a great weekend and take care
ac


----------



## acouch

good morning all
todays road map
have a great day and good trades
ac


----------



## acouch

just to show you how the road map went today at eod..but it is a 24 hr chart dont forget..
you can see how the LIS was in control with price 3713 was great support once crossed in the morning..
ac


----------



## acouch

good morning all
todays road map,
have a great day, and good trades
ac


----------



## acouch

good morning all
toady's road map
have a great day, and good trades
ac


----------



## acouch

good morning all
todays road map 
have a great day, and good trades
ac


----------



## MRC & Co

WTF was that day?  Like 10,000 contracts up to 4pm and even a sh*t close.  

Does the sideways bear market with the occassional day of volatility begin?


----------



## Naked shorts

MRC & Co said:


> Does the sideways bear market with the occassional day of volatility begin?




Perhaps till the Obama inauguration. from what im reading on the net, everyone seems to be divided over whether his will be good or not.

God dam sideway market on oil all today.


----------



## MRC & Co

Naked shorts said:


> Perhaps till the Obama inauguration. from what im reading on the net, everyone seems to be divided over whether his will be good or not.
> 
> God dam sideway market on oil all today.




Well crude usually doesn't get heated until Europe and particularly the Europe/US overlap anyways.  

SPI has been drying up all week after a few doing some business on Monday.  Still not everyone back from holidays, so that would explain it to some extent, but it's still unusual.  Perhaps non-farms had a big impact too.  This should be a HUGE number, considering both the last figure and particularly the reaction.  Any kind of better than expectations and we could get a HUGE rally?


----------



## acouch

morning all
Monday's road map
have a great weekend and take care
ac


----------



## acouch

good morning all
today's road map
have a great day, and good trades
ac


----------



## nat

hi acouch and other spi traders ,im back for another go at it ,a little older and wiser hopefully ,i c you still putting your charts up acouch thanx for that , wish everyone well in there trading in 2009 ,Nathan


----------



## tech/a

Just taken my first SPI trade.
Makes it far easier when you have the data.

Buy at 3615
stop was 3601 now B/E

You can see the entry alerts.

That was fun *out at B/E*


----------



## Rob Cole

Hi Tech,
Great to see VSA on the SPI, maybe worth starting a new thread on it.
What time frame are you using?

Rob


----------



## tech/a

Rob COle said:


> Hi Tech,
> Great to see VSA on the SPI, maybe worth starting a new thread on it.
> What time frame are you using?
> 
> Rob




Currently 2 and 5 min
Getting used to the timeframes and these may not be what I settle on.
Just spending a bit of time reading each bar to see how it fares with my use of VSA.

Finding work and chart watching not conducive to good business so just feeling my way at the moment.
Noticed weekness at the 9.42 bar
This has followed through with a vert recient test for supply
at 10.11 on the 2 min chart.
Although not on the trade Id have been short from  around 3613 looks weak and looks directionless.

Currently hard to churn a buck!


----------



## tech/a

Volume spike down on 2 min chart
Looks like hidden buying so close short enter long.

Edit now that that bar is printed T/G has placed a buy alert on that next bar.
Stopping volume.

I really think today is a shocker I think it will churn!
How do guys like T/H peer at the screen all day!
Guess on these days Id be playing golf.

Anyway posting up a few as practice.


----------



## tech/a

Big volume spike (Down) after testing would have been too slow and out at around B/E.

Anyway have to do some work!
Definately a day for looking for short setups---in my mind!


----------



## Trembling Hand

tech/a said:


> Just taken my first SPI trade.






tech/a said:


> I really think today is a shocker I think it will churn!
> How do guys like T/H peer at the screen all day!
> Guess on these days Id be playing golf.




Thats why we are on ICE.

Welcome to the dark side Tech


----------



## tech/a

What a day to give up smoking!

Just noticed this -(Negative) volume shown where everything else hasnt had a - sign---anyone know what it is or means?

The other pik is me 5 mins ago.


----------



## Rob Cole

Tech

As a rule I wait until the ASX is completely open before looking for trades.
I use 3 min charts and most trades are over within the first hour.
I only trade the SPI, usually 4-6 hours work a week 
Entry today was short 3608 target is 3575.




Rob


----------



## Frank D

Tech,

You are trying to trade the SPI without any probability otherthan reacting
 to volume, and using small timeframes that mean diddly squat in the
 scheme of things.

You need to work with 5-day patterns, Ranges, and then use chart
 reading skills that give you an edge in understanding the  rotation 
and extension of price on any given day, which is part of the
 higher timeframe trends.

You need to plan the day and ‘predict the day’ before it happens and 
then use whatever you are using to confirm the set-ups.

_Why do you want to predict the day?_

So you understand *when to hold and when to fold even though you’ve 
entered based on whatever set-up you are using.*:- systematic trading.

Systematic trading and 'chart reading' skills is a must, because it allows
 you to know when to short, when to go long, or when to do both on
 certain days. 


*VSA is a lame duck when trading the SPI!!!!!  *

In a live trading environment you would be chewed and spewed.


----------



## Bronte

Trembling Hand said:


> Welcome to the dark side Tech



Welcome to 'Trading the SPI'
After all these years tech
Good luck


----------



## tech/a

Frank.

Yes I agree and see where your coming from--clearly.
Like the idea of road maps.
Just having a play at this time.

Your input is appreciated.
Rob.

Your target hasnt been reached are you still in?

Yes the learning curve.
Excellent thanks for your help guys I'll keep at it.


----------



## Rob Cole

Tech,
Still in trade with stop at B/E.
SPI has been very slow this year, what took 15 - 20 mins last year is taking 1hr - 2hrs. 

Rob


----------



## jersey10

well it has been a nice move over the past hour, glad i was able to catch it.  Such a shame i'm still a learner on the sim account


----------



## MRC & Co

Frank D said:


> Tech,
> 
> 
> You need to plan the day and ‘predict the day’ before it happens and
> then use whatever you are using to confirm the set-ups.




That's one side of the coin and works for you Frank.  Plenty trade what they see intraday in a complete discretionary manner and do well also.  Though, you are definately always trying to anticipate, I agree.


----------



## Frank D

John,

When trading the SPI focus on exiting around 40-44 points around 
the previous swing high or swing low.

If you notice a lot of the movements extend outward and reverse 
inward based on this range.

Even though the SPI has an ATR around 80points and can travel up to 
200 points in 1 day, around 70% of the time the SPI moves around 50% 
level of the ATR each day.

The only reason why it has an 80 point ATR or more, is because there
 is usually 1 large trending day within the week that keeps the True 
range around its average.

Therefore as a day-trader you want to be exiting or getting out of 
the market once price moves towards completing the range.

If you want to trade against the trend the best trades always occur at 
those extremes or those 44 point range highs or lows,  and you can 
make money trading against the trend at those points (spiral points), but
 if it’s not matched with a 5-day level :- support or resistance then 
profits are smaller:- focus on 10-20 points.


The point of a day-trader is taking chunks out of the ranges so that 
you obtain an income, so we need to trade with and use the 
statistical patterns that continually occur in the market:- it makes it 
easier than just working with descrestionary setu-ups using VSA and
 2 & 5 min bar charts.

*Work with the patterns that continually appear in a systematic 
way and understand how the market actually functions*


_When is the best time to hold for those large trend days? _

It’s always around the Monthly midpoints or Monthly extremes, and 
today that’s not the case so we take the money and run.

To answer your question :- short @ 3622 and exit @ 3587 and took the 
day off and went out to lunch.

If I wanted to go long today then I  didn’t have any 5-day support,
 but would have traded above 3606 to trade the R44 completion 
upwards.

*Above 3618 and there is a bias for further gains into the close
 simply based on the ‘HOOK' pattern above 3618.*

A  'HOOK' pattern verifies any reversal or Breakout by the closing bar 
either side of support or resistance.

On most occassions the bar will restest the same level and as a trader 
you want to enter at those levels and trade with the movement of the
 bar away from the 5-day level.

There is no resistance until price is around 3685. It doesn't mean it will 
travel that far today, but the probability of a HOOK pattern above 3618 has
 to potential to complete another 40-44 points upwards:- 3660


----------



## acouch

hello fd,

nice to see you , hope life is treating you well

ac


----------



## Rob Cole

Tech,

Can you post a 3 min VSA chart for today when you have time.

Thanks


----------



## MRC & Co

Nice post above Mr D.  

Your book is the next (and only I have any interest reading) book on my list!  

Is your 2nd book out yet (I'm sure you were writing a 2nd) and what are the differences between the two?

I just hope reading systematic trading material such as yours doesn't impact on my 'feel', but I hope to combine it to help _add to my conviction_ at certain times when the bias of your system shows confluence with my 'feel', at least that is how I plan to integrate it into my own style.  

I just hope I can understand it 

A true 'thinking outside the box' methodology!


----------



## tech/a

Sorry *Rob* I'm at home havent got it here but will do tommorow.

*Frank*
Without the print of the next bar how did you know to exit at 3587?
How did you know to short at 3622 while that is above a level I have seen your levels broken so why be so confident?
I can understand after after the next bar is printed.---????


----------



## acouch

good morning all
today's road map
have a great day, and good trades
ac


----------



## Frank D

Tech,

Left chart (Below) Daily of the SPI, and right chart is the 5-day pattern:- each bar is 43 points.
_
Why did I exit at 3587?_

Because if price is moving down from the previous intra-day swing high  
@ 3627 then my exit is based on taking the money out before the range of
 44 points completes, because the risk continuing lower diminishes greatly.

_Why did I enter @ 3622?_

Entry is also based on where price opens in relation to certain levels 
within the 5-day pattern.

The closer to support and resistance price moves away on open.

Not so near, and often price moves in the opposite direction of 22-27 
points and then reverses the trend.

Therefore it is simply the experience of knowing when to trade the open 
and when to wait until the market moves 22-27 before taking the 
opposite trade:- invert.


It simply chart reading skills based on the higher timeframe patterns
 within the Weekly range, as price ‘tries’ to move down from the Weekly
 50% level towards the Weekly lows @ 3481. 

*Confidence*:-  is basically understanding how markets often function in a
 non-liner way, and then reacting (trading) to the probability of price
 either following the trend outward, or price rotating back towards 
the midpoints using statistical ranges within the ATR:- 22 & 44 points.


Basically I’m a damn good chart reader, and that’s why there are people 
who have been using my stuff for years but continually subscribe to the 
daily reports, simply to verify their own view of the market or even
 to optimize certain set-ups during the day as it unfolds.

*Wednesday’s trading for Today*

I have a view that the Market is moving down into the Weekly 
lows @ 3481.

However I have a Daily HOOK bar  above 3618 which is a carry over
 from Tuesday which needs to complete.

This is called *OPEN trading:- *where Wednesday’s trading doesn’t begin
 until the previous 44 point range completes.

If it follows the HOOK pattern then the SPI should rise up early towards
 3662 to begin to verify Wednesday’s trading and Open

*Now:- I’ve also factored in a Weekly trend downward towards 3481.*

Around 3662 (R44 high)  The risk increases of  Wednesday moving 
higher.

Therefore if price follows the statistical probability of this week’s trend, 
then around 3662 I would begin to look for a moves down :- 87 points 
over the course of the trading day.

That’s my view of Wednesday, so I’ll trade accordingly to that view.

I could be completely wrong, but I have other shorter filters that allow me
 to take smaller chunks out of the ATR, when they meet during the 
trading day 10-20 points.

*But if Wednesday does move down from 3665, then we begin to Hold the ‘short’ trades longer.**

Note:- below 3618 on open and the R44 completes down 3603 and 
changes the entire view of the trading day, but it is still part of the Weekly trend.*

Above 3665 and the probability of price moving down 87 points on Wednesday and following the Weekly trend lower diminshes greatly.

Let's see how Wednesday plays out.


----------



## James Austin

Frank D said:


> Basically I’m a damn good chart reader, . . .




Ahhh Frank,

I can see many rolling their eyes at this claim. 

but granted, having followed your blog for 6 mths and used your system, you clearly know what you are doing and what the market is doing like none other i have encountered; in relation to SPI trading.

the deception of the system/ model and the blog is that it's easy. it isnt! but if a budding trader is prepared to work their butt off, the model has huge potential i think.

james


----------



## tech/a

Frank.

Following you OK.
But the hook what chart are you looking at.
Must be different to mine.
This is a daily of the current SPI.

Rob
Your 3 min chart is below.
Click to expand


----------



## tech/a

Frank.

Price did go to 3617 so hit your mark.

I loose it a bit here as are you expecting it to go to 3603?
Anyway Have a buy signal long at 3623 on VSA --yeh I know--Havent read your book yet! best I have. Trying to look at confluence.So are you now looking at 3665?
This is a 3 min chart click to xpand


----------



## Frank D

Tech,

you don't have the tools and you are trying to trade patterns that 
aren't there yet....

As pointed out in the morning report:- 3618 is the trend guide

But as also pointed out  the market moves against the trend 22-27 
points and then continues.

Price moved down into support confirmed with an R27 lows from
 the previous day, and now the Expectation is to complete the move 
towards 3660 ;- 44 points from the previous swing low @ 3616.

However, I always use a partial exit strategy...

*Long 3619 partial exit 3632 + 13 and hold...*

stops 3617.

There is no guarantee that price will do anything I think it will do based 
on my view of the market, hence why I bank profits an often run 
breakeven stops.

Just like there is no Guarantee the market will top out at 3665 and follow a 
87 point reversal down, price could just keep going higher from 3618.


----------



## tech/a

Thanks Frank I understand---well as best I can.

Frank what is the chart code your using it doesnt correlate to anything I have?

Will continue to read your publication.

But as the only tools I have a re currently VSA some interesting things have occured note the test and a great time to add to position Long green bar with diamond.
Then contracting volume to a very tight range very low volume reversal bar--great time to get out.
Short at 3640 low of the next bar and add to short with the very low volume squat bar 3 red bars in.
3618 support again found so out again
Seems support testing has held so long again.
Since posting a high volume test to the upside has failed so out at small loss.
Good strong high volume bar broke 3618 decisively so weak.


----------



## motorway

Tech Frank says each Bar is 43 pts

So I take it these are range bars ?

motorway


----------



## julius

This might help Tech.



> If you have a market that moves from 1 to 9, then 9 to 1, then 1 to 9 during 2 days, if you create a range bar chart of $10 you will only have a bar that goes from 1 to 9 during these 2 days and this bars is not closed. If the market moves to 10 then the bar closes and a new bar opens with open price at 10. This new bar now must have $10 range to close. Let’s say the market goes back to 6 and then up to 17, the last range bar closes at 16 (making a range bar from 6 to 16) a new bar opens with open price at 16 and this bars price is now 17. This new bar has now a range of $1 (16 to 17) and will wait until a complete $10 range to close.


----------



## tech/a

M/W thanks
But The bars are at levels I cant see on a chart??

Short 3621 on Test at 3627 on volume (Stop 3628)


----------



## James Austin

tech/a said:


> M/W thanks
> But The bars are at levels I cant see on a chart??




not sure what u mean tech,

but you need software that can do *range bars* as opposed to standard *time-price bars*.


----------



## tech/a

Stopped.

Back to work.
2+
2 small losses.

OK thanks JA.
I though I was seeing prints out of the trading range.


----------



## Frank D

Tech,

Those charts are range bars, after each movement in price:- 22 or 43
 points a new bar is drawn.

 What you notice it that most of the patterns whether using VSA or 
3 mins bars correlate to movements based on 22-27 points and then into 
43 points and so on…..

*For example the bounce off 3618 moved up 22-27 points.*

When did price move down?  after it completed the R27 high.

So if  you are looking to move into ‘scalping;’ short-term moves of 10-20 points,  as I mentioned earlier, you want to be trading in the direction of 
the completed bar :- ie  inverting or rotating in the opposite direction 
from the open if trading against the trend.

You could use VSA or 3min bars to verify the trade, but the important part is using statistical price patterns that always occur in the market as an edge.

Either price has follow through or it fails and reverses, as in this case this morning towards 3660.

*Today:- *My view was for price to play out the HOOK pattern 
and continue up towards 3660.

Now for price to continue up towards 3660 and follow my view of the 
market price should have remained above 3632 and not drop below after 
the initial 27 point range movement upwards @ 3648

Once price dropped began to move down, I moved my trailing stops into 
3629 +10, because the probability of no follow through  often sees price continue down 22-27 points from the previous swing high.


But you don’t want to trade the break of 3618 because you are trading the low of the of the bar which often reverses back upwards.


For me to short trade the market I would either want to see the *SPI move up towards 3665,* or move down into 3605, and wait, and then watch for price  swing upwards into 3618 and then *short trade from a 22-27 point high bar downwards, as it follows the trend.*

*Basically you need to apply these strategies in context with the overall market.*

*For example, if price opened near to 3665 then I’d be shorting down and holding down because it fits with the price action and my overall view of the market*

BTW long 3619  stopped 3614 –5

Long again 3619  partial exit 3629 +10   and holding with breakeven stops.

As you can see I’ve dropped my levels down into 10-20 point moves now, but I still have the view of price completing 3660.


*Your last trade using VSA has high risk simply because you haven’t
 confirmed the pattern using either support or resistance and you are
 trading against statistical movements that occur in the SPI.*

There are high probability patterns in the market and there high 
probability set-ups to trade those patterns, and you need to combine 
what you already know with those certain patterns.

As i've always said, there are maybe 1 or 2 good trading set-ups per 
week, when everything aligns perfectly and goes according to plan, and the rest of the time you need to protect yourself from losses and stop over trading.


----------



## tech/a

Thanks for the explaination Frank.
Will absorb when I have more time.

Have a look at this Volume spike.

Must be Trembling Hand making one of his "Ballsy" trades!


----------



## Trembling Hand

tech/a said:


> Have a look at this Volume spike.
> 
> Must be Trembling Hand making one of his "Ballsy" trades!




WTF??

Oh well you were warned about VSA and index futs games


----------



## tech/a

Trembling Hand said:


> WTF??
> 
> Oh well you were warned about VSA and index futs games




It was a joke.

Warned about VSA whats that about!
Volume spike was shown as buying in the very next bar.
Another one seen at 12.40 and confirmed as buying by the next bar.

Hell I like what I see with this volatility.
Damned sight easier than Stocks!


----------



## Trembling Hand

tech/a said:


> Warned about VSA whats that about!
> Volume spike was shown as buying in the very next bar.
> Another one seen at 12.40 and confirmed as buying by the next bar.




Not trades. Crosses.


----------



## tech/a

You still have 2 parties.
One wishes to sell one buy.
Still volume at an agreed price.
Its certaintly reacting as expected.


----------



## tech/a

3660 Frank---(3659 actually).
Seeing climatic action currently, next few bars will see if it comes off.

Will keep reading Frank.


----------



## Cartman

tech/a said:


> Damned sight easier than Stocks!




now who tried to tell ya that 2 weeks ago --   lol

looks to me like it needs a 'player' to belt it up higher so they can dump some volume on the short side ----

prefer to see a high range up spike if its gona go short  ---- could be wrong -- dont do Index much --


----------



## Cartman

id also be a little cautious if u were a breakout trader atm


----------



## Frank D

So far at this stage in the day ( 1 hour left), everything has played out how
 I thought it would, but not as I hoped it would.

I hoped today had far more volaility and the speeds of the moves
 occured much quicker, because at this stage in the day I don't think
 my view of a 87 point reversal down is going to play out.

As you can see my view of the market was simply based on a shift in 
'TIME' based on the completion of the R44 upwards and a reversal down
 from the channel highs

But regardless of whether there is a reversal down or not, once you take a partial 
exit out, then you can sit back and see where it goes, and run
 breakeven stops.

Every trade was taken in a systematic fashion simply based on my view
 at the start of the trading day, and as price action takes place I trade accordingly ;- *chart reading and pattern recognition*

BTW, it Won't surprise me to the SPI actually kick up higher into the 
close simply based on price not selling off after a 10 point reversal down if 
it breaks 3663.


----------



## Joolean

Howdy all,

thanks for the interesting stuff on VSA and Franks methods as I hadn't heard of them before. I use mp and volume so have found some vsa articles quite enlightening from a market behaviour perspective.
At first glance Frank, your screen grabs look like schematics for building a robot.  Any new knowledge of the SPI is good knowledge though and I'm interested in getting a longer timeframe perspective.

Anyway, In looking into both, I got quite sidetracked (as you do on the web) and followed some links on market makers. The first one led me to look up the second.

http://www.making-bread.co.uk/how-the-stock-markets-work.htm

http://www.asx.com.au/products/futures/trading_information/market_maker_obligations.htm

Do we have a market maker for the SPI? On the asx site, it lists asx mini200 futures which I hadn't heard of before.

This quote from that page:
"The minimum volume of contracts a market maker may quote a market for is 30 contracts."
Does that mean that at a minimum, the market maker must always provide at least 30 contracts of liquidity?

I'm always curious to get a better understanding of just who's in the SPI and how it physically operates as I still don't have a solid grasp on it.
I've read parts of Cameron's site so have some idea of the players, but not so much the mechanics of it.

Any comments on this topic appreciated.
Cheers,
Julian.


----------



## Cartman

Frank D said:


> BTW, it Won't surprise me to the SPI actually kick up higher into the
> close simply based on price not selling off after a 10 point reversal down if
> it breaks 3663.




looks like a good call atm  Frank ----    im not holding , but id be cashing in my longs on any spike up at the close !!


----------



## Trembling Hand

Joolean said:


> Do we have a market maker for the SPI?



 Nope


----------



## Joolean

That makes that an easy one. 

Thanks TH.


----------



## tech/a

Cartman said:


> looks like a good call atm  Frank ----    im not holding , but id be cashing in my longs on any spike up at the close !!




There's your spike!


----------



## tech/a

Well for analysis which evidently will struggle on the SPI
VSA had a day out today.
This is a 5 min chart which I think is the best timeframe for the SPI.(Personal view which may alter the longer I use it on the SPI.)


----------



## Cartman

tech/a said:


> There's your spike!




yeah it was always gona get dumped at some point ----- picking the point correctly is the hard part ---- 

those who took the 'early' shorts would have been chewing their nails a bit ---

out of curiousity  ---- TH ----- how many trades did u make between 4.02 and 4.13  ------ 

and did u manage to pick the bottom and get the ride back up ??


----------



## MS+Tradesim

I'm forward testing a trend following system. Couldn't have cherry picked a better example than today. It will never return the kind of results that TH and Frank no doubt get, but it's a place to start. Only exited to avoid maintenance margin.


----------



## Trembling Hand

Not that many cartman, only did about 30 today still on holidays till mid feb. 

Tech when are the signals taken and do you take the triangles as well as the rectangles?


----------



## Cartman

Trembling Hand said:


> only did about 30 today still on holidays till mid feb.




lol ---- relax mode ---- only 30 trades !! ----- more than most do in a week --- are u having a snooze in between trades as well 




Trembling Hand said:


> Tech when are the signals taken and do you take the triangles as well as the rectangles?




actually i was wondering re the entries also Tech ----- with vsa u have to wait till the next bar is printed --- is that correct? ----  that would make trading the cut and thrust areas around the open and close on a five minute chart difficult/even riskier i think?? ---- personally im still pretty crap at those areas anyway, but i would think vsa might be a little slow there --- probably better for trends in the steadier parts of the day??


----------



## CapnBirdseye

Hi guys, I'm new posting here but have been trading the SPI on and off for about a year now with mixed success.  After a little while away I decided to start trading again last week.

The last week and a half have be very successful, and I'm waiting for it to end to be honest.  Has the last 7 trading days been particularly easy or have I now paid my dues and finally learned some discipline?


----------



## Trembling Hand

CapnBirdseye said:


> Has the last 7 trading days been particularly easy or have I now paid my dues and finally learned some *discipline*?




LOL!

Or Skills


----------



## tech/a

*T/H.*

The long answer to your question is.
The rectangles and trriangles are simply alerts.
It isnt a black box as such (Not that you implied that it was).

You learn to read VSA by firstly pouring over the 2 books that Tom Williams put out (You can also do Wyckoff who was really the father of VSA and Motorways discipline--well appears to be).
Then by watching hrs of Video. Attending Hrs of Live seminars and then ofcourse experience. You know the 10,000 hr thing. I'm at about 5000 on VSA.

To be honest I'm still playing with the way I will trade the SPI with VSA.
But it will not be from alerts.It will be from reading the 5 min chart and incorporation of Common analysis S&R along with one of the Tradeguider indicators. Often an alert will fall on a signal I come across from reading the chart---simply because it will be what I'm looking for.

The short anwer is that if you wanted to and traded off the alerts (Not all alerts are 2 or in rare case 3 bar setups many are 1)
You would/could wait for confirmation of the signal.There are many things to lookfor in the confirmation.
Take the trade then wait for an exit signal with the same confirmation.

You wont get really really tight entries or exits unless you have targets for buy and sell pre set,but then there is risk there as well.

Although I wrote up 4 trades today would have been 7 under my conditions.
I havent added up pips.

Like any analysis there are many things you can do enhance the basics.
Wont be posting anything tommorow for the most part and wont be trading-I'm in the fireld for the best part of thye morning.


----------



## Cartman

CapnBirdseye said:


> Has the last 7 trading days been particularly easy or have I now paid my dues and finally learned some discipline?




eye eye Cap'n ---- post up a cuple of yr trades and let the boyz take em to bitz for ya ----- im no Index trader, but there are some here who will disect yr trades to tell ya whether u were lucky or skillful


----------



## Trembling Hand

Tech just wondering. It actually looks like the kind of stuff I trade. stopping vol and blow offs. you know all that kind a stuff.


----------



## tech/a

I guess the difference being that you are anticipating and I am waiting for confirmation--my slant on it.

VSA is falable just like all analysis---Frank would probably dis agree and I may too after 10,000 hrs of study and application of his method.

Still consistent profit with minimum stress and or time outlay,and maximum clarity and enjoyment are my aims.

I'm encouraged with these instruments.
May well ditch my stock trading!---until a clear long run appears.
Early days yet!


----------



## MRC & Co

CapnBirdseye said:


> Has the last 7 trading days been particularly easy or have I now paid my dues and finally learned some discipline?




Actually, I've found the last few days particularly hard (though the mornings were pretty easy) and the few before that particularly easy.  All depends on the way your trading I guess and the timeframes.  

Looks to me, like that bot is back, stacking the bids and hitting at market, chasing the price up, then thinning the bids and pulling them, only to then attack it with the ask, rinse and repeat and vice-versa.  Catch all those with tight stops out.  Creates a lot of noise and distorts feel a bit.  Same bot was in there before the GM announcement and seemed to disappear the Monday following, think it got demolished (won't work on a running day for obvious reasons), but would be my guess as to why trends have been relatively choppy in general lately.  At least this is what it appears to me and a few other of my drugo iced up friends.  :batman:


----------



## Trembling Hand

tech/a said:


> I'm encouraged with these instruments.
> May well ditch my stock trading!---until a clear long run appears.
> Early days yet!




Tech Simply on a cost, spread and opportunity basis ASX stocks suck for intraday.


----------



## tech/a

Trembling Hand said:


> Tech Simply on a cost, spread and opportunity basis ASX stocks suck for intraday.




Just playing around with the SPI a few days has me shaking my head!
They tell me FOREX is even better.

And when the 40-100 point volatility in the SPI flattens to 20 or so where to then?
Currencies?


----------



## MRC & Co

Good stuff tech, hope you do well in the futs!

On another note, unemployment at 11:30am, good luck with that fellas!


----------



## Joolean

I read an article today discussing how large traders will buy the price up in early trade in order to sell into it and I'd just noticed a similar thing in the day I was trading.

The pic is a tick-reversal chart of the SPI on 5/1/2007. Price went up 65 points in the first 20 minutes on ~2000 contracts and then sold all the way down again over the next 3 hours before bracketing above the lows.

Though the article was referring to stocks, does anyone know if this is likely what's happening here or can explain the rationale behind this type of a day cos I've seen a few like this.

Thanks,
Julian.


----------



## Frank D

Tech/a

I  Guarantee that using VSA on 3-mins charts you’ll end up being a 
short-term trader or scalper, because you’ll be concentrating on the
 ‘minute’ patterns in the market, whilst disregarding the bigger picture.

There is nothing wrong with that, it’s all about trying to make money 
and protecting your money, whether trading 10-20 points, less or more.

I poked my nose into this thread simply to show that there are 
certain statistical patterns in the market that occur and that all 
traders should somehow use them to their own advantage:- an edge.

If you can combine chart reading skills & pattern recognition, the you
 can begin to understand when to hold and when to fold the larger 
trends within the daily timeframe and Weekly timeframe. 

As per Wednesday’s report:- the SPI has played out the pattern that 
I thought it would, rising up and reversing down 87 points, but sadly not 
in the ‘day’ session.

But the important part in yesterday’s example was, I knew when to fold, 
as the SPI was moving upwards from 3618, and the area that I wanted 
to hold:- Short around channel highs and hold the move down.

Yes I do agree VSA is fallible, like most analysis, simply because you 
haven’t demonstrated to others where support and resistance is, along 
with certain daily set-ups, and how best to use VSA.

You might prove me wrong and I hope you do, but if you just persist
 using VSA as a standalone tool, you will be chewed and spewed and
 another statistic in  this game.

*SPI Daily and 5-day pattern charts*


----------



## tech/a

Frank.
Although Ive just read the beginning of your book and from the comments you have been kind enough to post up here,I see where your coming from and it fits with my own bias.

I'm investigating day trading holding nothing overnight.
With current volatility and the very short time Ive looked at the SPI and it seems that with even small parcels 1-5 contracts you can turn a $.

There is more to VSA than simply reading the next bar/s and my posting here has been just an exercise. Certainly not a demonstration of VSA in its entirety on the SPI. For me its a work in progress that has shown enough potential for me to be seriously considering ditching stocks in the forseeable future. I'm well on the way in developement of a trading method given the tools I have.


Your road map forward was and is extremely helpful and with your experience would be all you need. I dont have your experience in your field but will study up.

Thanks again.


----------



## acouch

today's road map for those interested..
have a great day, and good trades..
ac
yesterdays road map was so close to perfect it doesnt matter..
2 tics of hod and 2 tics of sycom low..


----------



## Bronte

acouch said:


> yesterdays road map was so close to perfect it doesnt matter..
> 2 tics of hod and 2 tics of sycom low..



Yes acouch, we noticed this also, very well done 


tech/a said:


> I'm investigating day trading holding nothing overnight.
> With current volatility and the very short time Ive looked at the SPI and it seems that with even small parcels 1-5 contracts you can turn a $.
> 
> There is more to VSA than simply reading the next bar/s and my posting here has been just an exercise. Certainly not a demonstration of VSA in its entirety on the SPI. For me its a work in progress that has shown enough potential for me to be seriously considering *ditching stocks *in the forseeable future. I'm well on the way in developement of a trading method given the tools I have.




Nice one tech/a
It is so pleasing to follow your development.
If possible please reread our 2003 'Trading the SPI' thread on RC and our recent one on Shares. 
Should make more sense to you now.


----------



## Frank D

_Today's Premium Report....

"Yesterday's view of price moving up into the channel highs and
reversing down 87 points played out, but sadly not in the day session.

Along with this week's view for price to continue down into the Weekly 
lows @ 3481.

Therefore there are 2-days to go in this Weekly timeframe, but that 
move down won't occur unless there is a breakout of the 5-day lows 
on Thursday @ 3560.

Below 3560 and normal price action would see a move down 44 points 
and then consolidate for most of the trading day:- choppy"_

Today's price action is a perfect example of Weekly trends and using 5-day breakout patterns.

Once price opened below 3560 today the continuation down towards 3481 
was confirmed with a test and reject pattern and a 5-day breakout.

Validation intra-day also confirmed with a rise upwards of 27 points and the rejection down below 3560 to complete the move towards 3519


And even though I have a view of price heading lower this week, which
 could end up easily below 3481 by Friday's close, on most occassions 5-day breakouts often complete the range and then consolidate for the rest of today.

This could see price during the day swing upwards and retest the 
5-day break once again or later today.

But Personally I don't want to trade longs below a 5-day break.

If I have a view of lower prices on Friday, then the same 5-day break 
on Friday is viewed as resistance (depending where market the opens), then look for the next move down on Friday:- lower Weekly close.


----------



## Trembling Hand

Frank D said:


> But Personally I don't want to trade longs below a 5-day break.




I got a low + 1 entry. might as well let some of it ride.


----------



## tech/a

Bronte said:


> Yes acouch, we noticed this also, very well done
> 
> 
> Nice one tech/a
> It is so pleasing to follow your development.
> If possible please reread our 2003 'Trading the SPI' thread on RC and our recent one on Shares.
> Should make more sense to you now.




Dont know about developement.

All I'm doing as looking at another chart.
People keep telling me they (The other charts) react vastly differently to Stocks.
I havent seen that yet and from what I see on a Daytrading level they are a damned site easier to trade.


----------



## Trembling Hand

Trembling Hand said:


> I got a low + 1 entry. might as well let some of it ride.




 Try again hey?


----------



## Frank D

*SPI Weekly and 5-day pattern*

That's why I didn't want to trade the R44 low @ 3519, because it resulted 
in a breakout of a secondary channel, resulting in a retest @ 3536 and 
continuation down into my Weekly lows :- which may or may no hold this afternoon.

*Reminder:- *markets are being puhed down from the monthly 50% levels, and if markets are going to continue down, as per primary cycles 
in 2009, eventually these levels will have to break.... 3481.

I'm not expecting a major reversal upwards, if lucky 44 points, but i've 
taken my partial exit out

long 3484 partial exit 3493 + 9

and run breakeven stops from entry.

Either it continues up or breaks lower..

Let's see how she goes


----------



## MS+Tradesim

Didn't take any of the shorts on the far right. Too near to close. Which is probably where TH is making the big bucks.  When this has proven itself, I'll go live on it and start working on a reversal system, which I imagine will provide more points?! We'll see, I guess.


----------



## Cartman

tech/a said:


> Dont know about developement.
> 
> All I'm doing as looking at another chart.
> from what I see on a Daytrading level they are a damned site easier to trade.




smugness is not a very redeeming quality Techno :  



tech/a said:


> People keep telling me they (The other charts) react vastly differently to Stocks.




i think we were mainly talking about currency trading re the argument over chart differences weren't we Tech  ---  u musta forgot that bit


----------



## Cartman

Trembling Hand said:


> Not that many cartman, only did about 30 today still on holidays till mid feb.





TH --- im interested, and im sure others would be also ----------

when yr only doing a fraction of yr regular trades -----  u would only  be looking for what u think are 'sure things' --- maybe?? --- 

do u adjust yr entry criteria at all from yr normal style before honing in with the DOM? ----  

OR

do u just walk in the room and think ---- stuff it ---- im bored ill make a cupla quick trades cause the milkmans gona be here in a few minutes and i need a cupla bucks  

this should maybe be on the 3 trading rules thread cause its more related to that  .....  maybe u could give us a blurb on that thread


----------



## Trembling Hand

Cartman said:


> when yr only doing a fraction of yr regular trades -----  u would only  be looking for what u think are 'sure things' ---



sure things? what are they? 

Just doing small vol and a couple of hours on the spi.


Nothing special to it. My year starts fed 16th. till then more hols than hours at the screens.


----------



## Cartman

Trembling Hand said:


> sure things? what are they?
> 
> Just doing small vol and a couple of hours on the spi.
> 
> 
> Nothing special to it. My year starts fed 16th. till then more hols than hours at the screens.




hah ---- i was wondering what a TH sure thing might entail --- thats y i asked   ----- 

ok --- so u do yr normal trade stuff but just do it at yr own leisure ---- kinda like a pro surfer who still hits the beach even though he doesnt have a comp coming up ----   gotta keep the rails waxed


----------



## tech/a

Cartman said:


> smugness is not a very redeeming quality Techno :




Lost me.
Been charting 14 yrs.
A charts a chart.

You seem to be under the impression that scalping is the only way to profit trading futures?



> i think we were mainly talking about currency trading re the argument over chart differences weren't we Tech  ---  u musta forgot that bit




Oh sorry misunderstood.
Watched around 30 hrs of video of currency trading.
Looks pretty normal to me.
HSI well thats not normal!


----------



## Trembling Hand

tech/a said:


> HSI well thats not normal!




And its ten time more tame than what it was 2 years ago when it was up around 30,000.

150 ticks in a minute bar. Thats was for the punch drunk for sure (I loved it).


----------



## tech/a

Potential for an excellent day today.
 Currently a 200pt "U" turn on the DJIA


----------



## Frank D

Tech/A

Potential for what?  a down day or an UP day?

*US premium Report*

I'm not expecting US markets to move higher than those Weekly lows, 
but I would like to think the Price will move upwards and retest those lows 
before heading lower on Friday 

Two patterns to look for on Thursday 

If price rises upwards on Thursday and hits the blue channel to 
verify Wednesday's breakout then look for a move down into Thursday's
 lows.

If price moves down early on Thursday:- then the 5-day lows on 
Thursday are seen as Random support, which could result in a move 
back towards Wednesday's breakout late in the day.

This is basically my view of price moving back towards the Weekly 
break, matched with Wednesday's 5-day breakout, and continuation
 down into Friday.

Thursday's trading in the US has been precise, and using pattern recognition and 'text book' patterns, I'm factoring a move lower on Friday in US markets simply because these are repeating patterns of retesting the breakout and then continuing lower the next day.

However, I want to see where price closes on Midnight Thursday in US markets, because if it continues upwards and closes back above the Weekly lows,  then there is a potential for a continuation upwards on Friday.

*So how does this translate to the SPI on Friday???*

There is a clue in yesterday's 12:14 post at the end, and 3560 is still 
a critical level on the SPI this week, and so far it's moving back to my
 level and I will trade accordingly to the level on today's open.

But I also understand that yesterday test and bounce off the 3-week lows 
@ 3481 can often be a major support zone that could see prices rise 
upwards next week.

Therefore to answer your question, at this stage I'm not expecting the SPI
 to have an UP day, but I'm not going to fight the trend if it's above 3560.


----------



## tech/a

> Potential for what?




Movement.

Frank Currently I dont know which way either.
You have highlighted in your report in Blue that we could also get one way or the other depending on various price movements confirming.

If your situations play out you will follow your blueprint.
I can see the vast difference in my following price without one (blueprint).
Still reading.
Thanks again.


----------



## acouch

Good morning all
today's road map
have a great day and good trades
ac


----------



## Frank D

Tech/a,

The point of chart reading is understanding certain set-ups....

For example :- trend is down and I want to short trade a higher Daily open
 as it moves down and exit for the day

Where price closes is important for the next days trading, because in
 relation to the S&P and Thursday's trading:- breakout

A trader understands the concept of retesting the break using 
support/or trading the break:- resistance.

So the trader can then trade shorts and longs on Thursday.

If Friday follows a continuation down, then the trader would focus solely 
on trading shorts, simply based on today's close and 5-day trading 
set-ups:- because there is a break of the Weekly lows.

If it doesn't follow a continuation down on Friday, then hopefully the 
trader has some intra-day techniques that allows him or her to take 
small chunks out of the ATR as it moves higher.

This gets back to holding and folding.



*SPI Trading:- *

I've already factored in Friday's trading, by yesterday's 12.14pm post.

I already know what & how and I'm going to trade today. 

But the SPI isn't opening near or around 3560 and a higher open.

so it changes how I'm going to trade today on the open, as my 
probability pattern isn't set-up for today's trading on the open, so I would focus on taking small chunks out of the market:- 10-20points.

If the SPI opened near 3560 then I would look to hold for longer moves 
down, as long as it remains below 3560, that's because it's a breakout of a
 5-day range from yesterday, price has come back to retest the break and
 now continues down with the overall weekly trend.

A Daily trend has a random length:- 44 points or double that, which is often the case 2x44 ranges, or it could just continue 200 points in the same direction.


The whole point of understanding the patterns in the market is so you 
can optimise your trading even though your system has given an 
intra-day signal, which often can give a lot of false ones.


----------



## Trembling Hand

Frank just interested, when something ridicules happens like that huge spike on 29th of Dec (300 point stop explosion) do you ignore it for the weekly and monthly highs in this example?

Or a huge SYCOM drop that doesn't show during cash hours etc.


----------



## Frank D

TH,

Anything in the day sesson is part of the 5-day pattern used for the next day's trading.

Anything in the 24hour market is part of the monthly ranges, regardless of spikes.


----------



## Trembling Hand

21 point range for first 40 min. Half the avg.


----------



## Frank D

My strategy was either sell a higher open around 3560...

Or BUY on the HOOK pattern around 3515 looking for a move up towards
 3560

Neither pattern has played out so I waited for the 22 point 
pullback....

Long partial 3530 parital exit 3540 + 10,

With the expectation that price will complete  the r44 range upwards, as 
long as it remains above 3526.

*Note:- *if for some reason the R44 completes the move down into
 3505, then it's below 3515 and looking bearish....

* Now Which is more valid?*

Yesterday's 5-day break of 3560 and continuation down into a lower 
Friday close....

Or yesterday's Weekly lows support @ 3481, which could result in a 
higher Friday close  towards 3603 in afternoon buying after 3pm

I can't answer that quesiotn until after it plays out....

But if Friday moves higher after 3pm towards 3603, then there could a
 higher moves next week (Weekly report tomorrow)

If it breaks and closes lower, then 3481 support isn't vaild,  asthere will be 
 a new market part to travel towards next week (DOWN), as the Weekly 
lows will extend further down.

Obviously price action in the US will have a say in what and when...

*Today*:-  both my open probability patterns haven't played out, therefore into trading 10-20 point moves, but at the same time analysing 
and understanding any other potential moves that might eventuate
today.


----------



## MS+Tradesim

Do any of you guys work off convergence/divergence between SPI and XJO?


----------



## Bronte

Trembling Hand said:


> 21 point range for first 40 min. Half the avg.



Yesterdays Low 3482 plus (22 x 3) = Todays High 3548


----------



## Trembling Hand

Bronte said:


> Yesterdays Low 3482 plus (22 x 3) = Todays High 3548




Also last nights SYCO(M) high.


----------



## Bronte

MS+Tradesim said:


> Do any of you guys work off convergence/divergence between SPI and XJO?



Yes we certainly do MS+.
We would be very reluctant to take a position against a
44 point Discount or Premium


----------



## skc

Bronte said:


> Yes we certainly do MS+.
> We would be very reluctant to take a position against a
> 44 point Discount or Premium




How do you work out the amount of discount / premium? I know the formula for fair value of a future contract, but you will need info on the dividend drop off schedule to the cash. Is this information available somewhere for free or a fee?

Also, what do you mean a position against a 44pt premium? Does it mean you expect the premium to come down, or you expect the XJO to come up?

thanks


----------



## Bronte

The Futures is the:  SFE SPI 200 Index
The Physical is the: S&P ASX200 Index 

If the Futures are at a higher level than the Physical then it is said that we are at a PREMIUM to the physical (Bullish).

If the Futures are at a lower level than the Physical then it is said that we are at a DISCOUNT to the physical (Bearish).

The SPI contracts can be + / - 44 points or more to the ASX 200
Large movement in overseas market overnight etc 

Hope this helps.


----------



## MS+Tradesim

Bronte, thanks for reply and further info there.


----------



## skc

Bronte said:


> The Futures is the:  SFE SPI 200 Index
> The Physical is the: S&P ASX200 Index
> 
> If the Futures are at a higher level than the Physical then it is said that we are at a PREMIUM to the physical (Bullish).
> 
> If the Futures are at a lower level than the Physical then it is said that we are at a DISCOUNT to the physical (Bearish).
> 
> The SPI contracts can be + / - 44 points or more to the ASX 200
> Large movement in overseas market overnight etc
> 
> Hope this helps.




Thanks Bronte. 

I've thought the premium / discount relates to the _SPI's fair value versus the cash_. The SPI's (currently at ~3530) fair value based on my calcaulation is ~3540. This assumes 2 months to expiry, 4.25% risk free interest rate and dividend drop off by ~1%. So the SPI is still at a discount to the cash (currently ~3560), but by only 20 points. My input data is not perfect (esp. on dividend drop off, and hence my question before) so give or take a few points each way. Does this sound right? 

And given the above, the SPI is bearish against the cash, so you will no hold long trades. Is that what you meant by won't trade against the Discount? Thanks


----------



## Frank D

SPI tries to move higher completing the R27 top, but it's also below the
 R44 Spiral top...(Higher Daily open)

I've change my view on the SPI moving higher at this stage because of 
this pattern.

Short 3543 partial exit 3530 + 13

Holding breaking stops from entry...

This was simply a confirming top matched with the higher Daily open.

As you can see I'm trading from the open of the bar, lower this time, and 
I don't have to trade any breakouts, as i'm already on the trend down, if it continues down.

If the R27 can move down into 3524, I think it's going to continue down 
into a R44 low, which puts it below 3515, and potential more weakness
 into the close.

*I could be completely wrong and there is 3pm buying, as it remains 
above 3526, but i'll adjust to that later if my trailing stops are taken.*

With the potential of higher prices towards 3603, but at this stage I want to trade in the direction 
of the 'open' on this R44 bar, in this case down.


----------



## Bronte

MS+Tradesim said:


> Bronte, thanks for reply and further info there.





skc said:


> Thanks Bronte.
> And given the above, the SPI is bearish against the cash, so you will no hold long trades. Is that what you meant by won't trade against the Discount? Thanks



You are welcome guys 
We will Buy off our Support & Sell off our Resistance.
Just taking more care if we are trading against the Physical.


----------



## Frank D

SPI moves down into random support @ 3515.

If this was the open I would be buying and trading upwards, but i'm 
not interested in buying longs this afternoon.

It's an exit zone and taking the day off.

Today's trading was death by a thousand cuts of boredom.

*Weekly report out tomorrow*


----------



## Bronte

Bronte said:


> The Futures is the:  SFE SPI 200 Index
> The Physical is the: S&P ASX200 Index
> 
> If the Futures are at a higher level than the Physical then it is said that we are at a PREMIUM to the physical (Bullish).
> 
> If the Futures are at a lower level than the Physical then it is said that we are at a DISCOUNT to the physical (Bearish).
> 
> The SPI contracts can be + / - 44 points or more to the ASX 200
> Large movement in overseas market overnight etc
> 
> Hope this helps.



Physical (ASX200) closed at 3548 (later corrected to 3550.9)
SPI saw 3501 during the closing stages of todays trade (see chart)
3548 - 44 = 3504  *44 point plus DISCOUNT to the Physical*
Any Buy around here, resulted in a possible 32 + points


----------



## Cartman

tech/a said:


> A charts a chart.
> 
> Watched around 30 hrs of video of currency trading.
> Looks pretty normal to me.
> HSI well thats not normal!




of course currency trading is 'normal' --- all charts are normal ---- but its the *'time frame' * relative to price change that alters --- thats the point ive been *trying* to get across 

the HSI is probably totally normal too if u bring the time frame down to relate to the volume/dollars traded relative to the price moves ---- (never traded it and have no idea)

price gyrations of an instrument are *affected by its liquidity* at a given moment ----- 

currencies are* more* affected on a lower time frame because they are *extremely liquid* ------ *nothing* like stocks from where i sit --


----------



## MRC & Co

Frank D said:


> Today's trading was death by a thousand cuts of boredom.




Make that most of this wk.  Tragic.


----------



## Bronte

Bronte said:


> Physical (ASX200) closed at 3548 (later corrected to 3550.9)
> SPI saw 3501 during the closing stages of todays trade (see chart)
> 3548 - 44 = 3504  *44 point plus DISCOUNT to the Physical*
> Any Buy around here, resulted in a possible 32 + points



Just thought I would mention that the Physical closes 30 mins before the SPI.


----------



## MRC & Co

Bronte said:


> Just thought I would mention that the Physical closes 30 mins before the SPI.




But the first 10mins of that last 30 is a battle to calculate the closing auction the quickest!


----------



## MS+Tradesim

Didn't take any trend signals today as it seemed all the action happened early morning. SPI seemed directionless so I played around and lost heaps and heaps of monopoly money trying to pick ranges.  

Encouraging to hear even the pros don't think today was up to much.


----------



## MRC & Co

MS+Tradesim said:


> Didn't take any trend signals today as it seemed all the action happened early morning. SPI seemed directionless so *I played around and lost heaps and heaps of monopoly money trying to pick ranges*.




ha ha ha, I did the same and lost heaps and heaps of real money!


----------



## Bronte

Never mind, it's Friday night guys.... enjoy a beer or two: :bier: :drink: :dance:  lol


----------



## tradez

Hi guys,
I am very new to futures trading and have recently been dipping my toes in the water with the SPI on a paper trading account.  I was wondering for those of you who scalp short time frame charts (1-5 mins) what size stops do you work with when putting a trade on?


----------



## MRC & Co

Personally, for scalping, I use anywhere from 1-6 tick stops, average somewhere in the middle.


----------



## tradez

MRC & Co said:


> Personally, for scalping, I use anywhere from 1-6 tick stops, average somewhere in the middle.




MRC are you shooting for a 1:1 risk reward when scalping?


----------



## acouch

good morning all
Mondays road map.
have a great weekend and take care
ac


----------



## MRC & Co

tradez said:


> MRC are you shooting for a 1:1 risk reward when scalping?




On average, slightly higher.

But completely depends on the day, sometimes lower, sometimes much higher.  If the day is choppy and not trendling cleary, I will just try to time entries and take small ticks.  If it is trending clearly and flowing price action, I will aim slightly higher and try take chunks of the trend on both the move and the pullbacks and if it's choppy and trending, I will try and take a high reward by position trading it more.


----------



## tech/a

Bronte said:


> Yes acouch, we noticed this also, very well done
> 
> 
> Nice one tech/a
> It is so pleasing to follow your development.
> If possible please reread our 2003 'Trading the SPI' thread on RC and our recent one on Shares.
> Should make more sense to you now.




Bronte.

I went back to refresh my memory on the 2003 thread.
Its nowhere to be found.
I cant foir the life of me remember what was in them.
But think it has something to do with levels?

Give me a snippet of what your talking about and the light "should" switch on.
My memory was of Gann analysis?


----------



## Bronte

Hi tech,

It was mainly to do with just 'Trading the SPI'
Why we have chosen this particular market to specialize in.
The many advantages, you are now discovering over trading shares etc.
The other thread (previously mentioned) on: shares.com.au does explain a lot.


----------



## wayneL

tech/a said:


> Bronte.
> 
> I went back to refresh my memory on the 2003 thread.
> Its nowhere to be found.
> I cant foir the life of me remember what was in them.
> But think it has something to do with levels?
> 
> Give me a snippet of what your talking about and the light "should" switch on.
> My memory was of Gann analysis?



My memory was of hindsight trading and refusal to answer questions about Gann analysis.


----------



## tech/a

Yes now I remember.


----------



## Bronte

Bronte said:


> Hi tech,
> It was mainly to do with just 'Trading the SPI'
> Why we have chosen this particular market to specialize in.
> The many advantages, you are now discovering over trading shares etc.
> The other thread (previously mentioned) on: shares.com.au does explain a lot.



Yes there were a few back in that 2003 thread tech/a...
Only similar to what we have seen posted this week though.


----------



## tech/a

Hmm
Dont know about that.
Franks stuff was posted hrs before the point value was reached.
His expectations of direction also played out after he posted them.
Vast difference.


----------



## Bronte

tech/a said:


> Hmm
> Franks stuff was posted hrs before the point value was reached.



Please can you explain tech, we are confused here 
Also your trades if you wouldn't mind.


----------



## MRC & Co

Bronte said:


> Please can you explain tech, *we* are confused here




Just out of interest, who is the 'we' you always refer to Bronte?


----------



## tech/a

Bronte said:


> Please can you explain tech, we are confused here
> Also your trades if you wouldn't mind.




I actually followed Frank.
I'm still developing.


----------



## Cartman

tech/a said:


> I'm still developing.




lol --- is that 'subtle' sarcasm ----


----------



## Bronte

MRC & Co said:


> Just out of interest, who is the 'we' you always refer to Bronte?



We are a husband and wife team MRC & Co
'Trading the SPI' is one of our favourite passions.


----------



## MRC & Co

Bronte said:


> We are a husband and wife team MRC & Co
> 'Trading the SPI' is one of our favourite passions.




Ah, figured so.

Good to hear, common passions are hard to come by.


----------



## wayneL

Bronte said:


> We are a husband and wife team MRC & Co
> 'Trading the SPI' is one of our favourite passions.




Bronteman,

It is well known that you both post under the same account. In order for you to restore some semblance of transparency and integrity to those of us that know you from previous postings, would you please sign off your posts as "Bronte" or "Battman", as applicable.

Not to do is will be viewed as deceptive.

Thanks


----------



## Bronte

Lol, I usually do,
The smiley face was my idea...
Cheers Bronte


----------



## Sean K

Isn't this the 'NON-Gann' thread?


----------



## wayneL

Bronte said:


> Lol, I usually do,
> The smiley face was my idea...
> Cheers Bronte



:error: Hubby poses as Bronte though.


----------



## Sean K

wayneL said:


> :error: Hubby poses as Bronte though.



WOW! 

Husband and wife posting as the same person pasting up retrospective trades?

Who would have thought?



Looking forward to the next educational post he/she sends us. Might help me advance my skills in trading the spi. I damn well need it!!!


----------



## Trembling Hand

Anyone who uses IB getting depth on the SPI today?


----------



## Bronte

Trembling Hand said:


> Anyone who uses IB getting depth on the SPI today?



No not today on IB TH
It is on others
Bronte


----------



## Bronte

kennas said:


> Looking forward to the next educational post he/she sends us. Might help me advance my skills in trading the spi. *I damn well need it!*!!



We really would like to help you kennas, you have been good to us.
Could you please post one of your SPI trades.
Whatever you feel comfortable with (Live/Retro/hind)
Private message / Blog me if you prefer.
Cheers Bronte


----------



## Sean K

Bronte said:


> We really would like to help you kennas, you have been good to us.
> Could you please post one of your SPI trades.
> Whatever you feel comfortable with (Live/Retro/hind)
> Private message if you prefer.
> Cheers Bronte



No.


----------



## Bronte

OK 'No worries'
Bronte


----------



## sails

I am only getting one level (top row only) of market depth for the SPI on IB.  However, 5 levels with Oz stocks.

Have had a look around TWS but can't find how to increase MD.  Can anyone help?


----------



## Trembling Hand

sails said:


> I am only getting one level (top row only) of market depth for the SPI on IB.  However, 5 levels with Oz stocks.
> 
> Have had a look around TWS but can't find how to increase MD.  Can anyone help?




Somehing wrong with it today.


----------



## Bronte

Hi sails, great to hear from you again.
You are obviously still "Trading the SPI'
Hopefully with a lot of continued success.
Presently we also only have the top line of MD on IB
No problem with any of our other providers though.
Looking around TWS also, and clicking on help didn't help.
Has anyone send them a parking ticket?
Fondest Regards
Bronte


----------



## sails

Trembling Hand said:


> Somehing wrong with it today.




Thanks TH - saves me spending hours trying to find it in that massive TWS manual.  First time I have tried to get SPI MD since re-opening with IB.



Bronte said:


> Hi sails, great to hear from you again.
> You are obviously still "Trading the SPI'
> Hopefully with a lot of continued success.
> Presently we also only have the top line of MD on IB
> No problem with any of our other providers though.
> Looking around TWS also, and clicking on help didn't help.
> Has anyone send them a parking ticket?
> Fondest Regards
> Bronte




Actually not trading the SPI again, Bronte - just considering it as I have just re-opened the IB account and the free SFE data.

I've pretty much given up on the Gann approach - although I still use some the easier techniques which are sometimes also found in other systems.  I found it took so much time that the "need to be right" became an issue.  I also found I couldn't get more than about 50% right with my limited Gann knowledge.  I put an enormous amount of time in trying to make it work, but felt I was flogging a dead horse in terms of profitability with Gann.  I would rather have a 50:50 win:loss ratio with far less analysis - it's not so disappointing when it doesn't work.  It's one of the reasons I ended up learning about options as I got pretty discouraged with pure directional trading.

Obviously you and Battman have found your niche in using Gann and the SPI - and I certainly respect that.  However, I think it would help your credibility here at ASF if you were willing to share a bit more detail of the methods you use instead of the small one-line posts that tend to have an air of mystery.  I might be wrong - just my thoughts in seeing some of the reactions to your posts and trying to see both sides here. Have a look at some of the guys at ASF who have given a fair bit of insight into their trading methods.  I'm sure they don't give everything out, but they give enough to make it worthwhile reading and possibly help another trader along in some way.

Why not post some of your Gann targets and analysis in the Gann SPI thread.  I would be interested and there may be others as well if it was a bit more informative.


----------



## wayneL

sails said:


> I also found I couldn't get more than about 50% right with my limited Gann knowledge.  I put an enormous amount of time in trying to make it work, but felt I was flogging a dead horse in terms of profitability with Gann.  I would rather have a 50:50 win:loss ratio with far less analysis




Bang on.

And I'm yet to be convinced anyone gets more than 50% (+/- 5-10%) with Gann or whatever anyway. But that's an argument for another thread.


----------



## sails

Apologies for going off topic a bit in the last post  - please carry on with trading the SPI.  Looks pretty choppy at the moment ...


----------



## Frank D

_Weekly lows supported the market last week @ 3481, 
but with a shift of the Weekly lows this week the expectation is to
 push down towards the new Weekly lows @ 3426

This is also confirmed with the breakout of the 5-day lows on Thursday, 
with the view that price is moving down on Monday.

*Monday SET UP*- price move up towards the *channel highs and 5-day 50% level:- resistance 3569-72*

day-traders should define the rest of the day by 3481:- random support"_


Based on my morning report I'm looking for a move down into 
3481:- *5-day breakout from Thursday and 5-day 50% level thrust down from Monday*

Based on the current action in the SPI (lack of volume and volatility), I 
would be so lucky, becasuse it sure doesn't look like it's going that low, 
and could be another day like Friday


----------



## Trembling Hand

IB Tech Dept are looking into lack of SPI depth, so they say.


----------



## MS+Tradesim

Forward testing a reversal idea. Two conditions for entry, one for exit. Long/short is taken on the indicated bar at price of the previous low for a short or previous high for a long (except for the daily opening bar where I just entered near the open). That's not the entry condition though, just the entry price.  Found slippage to be non-existent today (no idea why) so entries have been spot on - beginner's luck probably.


----------



## acouch

updated road map..

LIS has been good support.we will see if
it can continue

ac


----------



## James Austin

MS+Tradesim said:


> Forward testing a reversal idea. Two conditions for entry, one for exit. Long/short is taken on the indicated bar at price of the previous low for a short or previous high for a long (except for the daily opening bar where I just entered near the open). That's not the entry condition though, just the entry price.  Found slippage to be non-existent today (no idea why) so entries have been spot on - beginner's luck probably.




Nice MS,
now just repeat it day after day, week after week and year after year; and you'll be cruising.


----------



## MS+Tradesim

James Austin said:


> Nice MS,
> now just repeat it day after day, week after week and year after year; and you'll be cruising.




Yes. Rinse and repeat. That will be the tough part.


----------



## Largesse

acouch said:


> updated road map..
> 
> LIS has been good support.we will see if
> it can continue
> 
> ac




Hi Acouch,

is there anywhere i can look up on the net that would be able to give some explanations for your roadmaps so that i can understand them a bit better?

TIA


----------



## James Austin

MS+Tradesim said:


> Yes. Rinse and repeat. That will be the tough part.




yes, consistency always the tough bit -- "it" decides who stays and who goes


----------



## acouch

Largesse said:


> Hi Acouch,
> 
> is there anywhere i can look up on the net that would be able to give some explanations for your roadmaps so that i can understand them a bit better?
> 
> TIA




sorry Largesse, i dont think so,
as it is my own creation..
but the LIS  (line in the sand) is for the day 24hrs.
so above you are long / below you are short..
or scalp against the trend..
nos either side of the LIS are support. or resistance..
the road map is created by using Andrews Medianlines, on software packages it is called pitchfork.
i hope this helps for you to understand it
ac


----------



## acouch

Good morning
this is how the road map looked this morning, 
you can see how LIS supported price,
but as it was a short trading day, it would have broken
next bar , on looking at the chart.and headed down to next support 
at 3505..
but we have a new road map for today..
but i though that perhaps you would like see the close, even though a short trading night.
ac


----------



## acouch

good morning all
today's road map
have a great day, and good trades
ac


----------



## Trembling Hand

Had 3583 as major support and a possible arvo target and 3530 as an outsider chance this week. My week has been compressed into a day and an hour


----------



## Frank D

*SPI Weekly and 5-day pattern*


5-day breakout and 5-day 50% level Thrust pattern on Monday 
has completed the move down into support @ 3469 on Tuesday

However, we need to understand what the SPI is trying to do, and I’ve 
had the view that price was moving down towards the Weekly lows @ 3426.

My set-up today was to short-trade the lower open but only after it 
moved upwards 22 points, because of the view it had to complete the 
move down into 3469.

That didn’t happen, so I bought support @ 3470

3469 did support the market for a short-term 18 point bounce, but once
 it hooked  under 3469, the expectation was further weakness down, as
 part of the higher timeframe trend.

Switch to shorts, and take the money and exit.

*NOW :- 3426 is a downside target for this week*, which could end 
 up being and extremely valid support zone, but this won’t be 
confirmed unless tomorrow confirms it with price rising upwards.

However, there is a higher timeframe pattern, (Monthly), which
 suggests more weakness down and a continuation down into Febraury
 at this stage.

Therefore, support can fail today and continue lower as it’s being 
driven down by the higher timeframes, or support holds (3426) but 
continues upwards tomorrow (confirmed), and the rest of this week
 moves back towards the Weekly 50% level:- *hard to believe.*


----------



## MS+Tradesim

Traded like crap today. Plenty of returns to be had from following my signals but I kept trying to pre-empt them and get earlier entries. Of course that didn't work out, and what should have been a winning day was mildly down. My system works (which it is certainly indicating that it will -in both backward and forward testing). I need to trust it and wait.


----------



## Largesse

am i seeing wrong or were you holding overnight?

i see every  trade there as a winner before commission?

im assuming red arrow means short? green arrow means buy?

you started with a short?


----------



## Page

Nice indicator it will help traders to know the exact position of the currency and take trades.


----------



## MS+Tradesim

Largesse said:


> am i seeing wrong or were you holding overnight?
> 
> i see every  trade there as a winner before commission?
> 
> im assuming red arrow means short? green arrow means buy?
> 
> you started with a short?




Sorry, I wasn't very clear. These are the signals my system generated. Had I taken them it would have been a good day. But me, no, I tried to pre-empt them and get the turns sooner. By doing that I got chopped in and out, comms plus losses added up. Red is short, green is long.

Ps. No over night hold there. Just intraday SPI. I am forward testing the same signals on FX too.

Pps. On QLD time too, in case that is a source of confusion.


----------



## Largesse

ahhh, that makes some sense then.

so are those signals to flip the position or just close it out?

and you are right, had you taken your signals you wouldve had a very good day


----------



## MS+Tradesim

Largesse said:


> ahhh, that makes some sense then.
> 
> so are those signals to flip the position or just close it out?
> 
> and you are right, had you taken your signals you wouldve had a very good day




Flip. It's a reversal idea.


----------



## tech/a

Private mailed you MS.
You must be seated behind me!

Todays trades for me were the first bar as signalled but on a 4 min chart.
I didnt take this as I dont at this point trade the first 20 mins or last.
2nd trade I did take was the 2nd RED signal and exited and reversed on the lowest green signal.
Closed on the second last red down bar not signal so we must be slightly different.


----------



## James Austin

MS+Tradesim said:


> Traded like crap today. Plenty of returns to be had from following my signals but I kept trying to pre-empt them and get earlier entries. Of course that didn't work out, and what should have been a winning day was mildly down. My system works (which it is certainly indicating that it will -in both backward and forward testing). I need to trust it and wait.




Nice MS
tell us more.
is the system mechanical with a little discretion?
what is the selection criteria generating an entry signal/ and an exit signal? -- or is that a little too personal?
James


----------



## MS+Tradesim

Tech,

I'm not using volume at all. (That may come back to haunt me some day. ) Interesting then that VSA is signalling similarly. 


James,

It's purely mechanical which means on days like last Friday it's chop suey time.  I don't want to say too much because it looks like being a real edge and I may as well make the most of it till it disappears. Having said that, it is extraordinarily simple. I'm just using a prepackaged indicator in an unusual way with over the top settings. Two conditions for entry, one for exit. I also discovered how wonderful IB's Booktrader is for setting up limit stops and buys - which is resulting in near zero slippage, so fills at the exact signal.....when I wait for it  Slippage will probably become more of a concern with larger orders way down the track though, I suppose.


----------



## James Austin

MS+Tradesim said:


> James,
> 
> I don't want to say too much because it looks like being a real edge




i understand, dont tell anyone . . . but u can PM me right!


----------



## tech/a

MS+Tradesim said:


> Tech,
> 
> I'm not using volume at all. (That may come back to haunt me some day. ) Interesting then that VSA is signalling similarly.





Bars are different on your chart.
Position of trades very similar but the bars 
arent the same.
I'm working on volume and bars along with position in the trading pattern.
Nothing of Franks yet but working on it.
Interesting challenge this SPI.
Only testing is limited to hand as I only have a months data in 4 min bars.
Plus of course walk forward.
Hardly definative I know.


----------



## MS+Tradesim

tech/a said:


> Private mailed you MS.




Tech, if you PMed me, nothing has come through. Odd. Try resending if you like.


----------



## tech/a

MS+Tradesim said:


> Tech, if you PMed me, nothing has come through. Odd. Try resending if you like.




Sent it again says it went though.


----------



## acouch

morning all
today's road map
have a great day and good trades
ac


----------



## Bronte

Thank you acouch, LIS 3370
Dow down 3 % overnight.
- 332.13 (7949.09)
NON-Gann Support at 3364
Hope this holds.
Bronte


----------



## Frank D

*SPI Weekly and 5-day pattern*

Weekly low breakout @ 3426 with the expectation price is heading down 
into the January lows @ 3137, and then continue down into an extended
 low in February:-

*2xtimeframe pattern Dilernia principle*

This move was part of the Monthly 50% level Thrust- rejection
 patterns down, and today’s breaks of the 3-week lows confirms the
 move down.

A bit choppy early on this morning, but below 3404 and view is to 
continue down into 3337.

Whether it gets down to 3337 today is another matter, as it's completed
 its 44 point range down.

3337 is view as random support, which means it’s more of a target 
down, than support.

And we understand where the Monthly trend is trying to go for the rest
 of this month:- 3137.

Enjoy your trading day....


----------



## tech/a

Not a bad day for an "L" plater had one signal for entry 3396 and exit signal at 3417
So finished for the day.


----------



## Bronte

Bronte said:


> Thank you acouch, LIS 3370
> Dow down 3 % overnight.
> - 332.13 (7949.09)
> NON-Gann Support at 3364
> Hope this holds.
> Bronte



Not a bad day tech/a
3384 Supported nicely.
3374 Low (nice one acouch)
3364 What are the chances ??? 
Cheers Bronte


----------



## Frank D

Even though the price action on the SPI looked extremely bearish, it was
 all about how well *BHP could hold support today.*


The lows today @ 3375 matched the support on BHP today @ $28.00, 
and whilst BHP was supported the potential downside into 3337 didn’t
 play out.

But I didn’t want to trade longs today simply based on the higher 
timeframe patterns:- Weekly low breakout @ 3426

But it didn’t stop me for trading longs once a BUY pattern was confirmed:- 

*R44 Hook above 3404 and retest of the break, confirmed with an R22 bottom.*

Exit on the R22 completion @ 3420.

Not holding because price is below the Weekly lows @ 3426

Even though it could continue higher back towards 3504 :- 44 points up.

Tomorrow another day...


----------



## Bronte

Frank D said:


> The lows today @ 3375 matched the support on BHP today @ $28.00, and whilst BHP was supported the potential downside into 3337 didn’t play out.



Todays Low was 3374 Frank
Interesting about BHP.
Thanks Bronte


----------



## acouch

Bronte said:


> Not a bad day tech/a
> 3384 Supported nicely.
> 3374 Low (nice one acouch)
> 3364 What are the chances ???
> Cheers Bronte




Hi bronte,

just home from baby sitting grand child..
yes that LIS is hard to beat..that is for sure..
hope your trading went well
ac


----------



## Bronte

acouch said:


> Hi bronte,
> just home from baby sitting grand child..
> yes that LIS is hard to beat..that is for sure..
> hope your trading went well
> ac



Yes, very well, thank you acouch 
We are very impressed by your LIS
Have a great evening. 
Bronte


----------



## MS+Tradesim

Didn't trade today. Catching up on tax returns. 

You all needed to know that.


----------



## acouch

acouch said:


> the never ending spi eod chart to keep you in the loop..
> have a great day
> ac




well thought it would update eod chart for those that have followed it through since the dble top of  6004..
nothing much has changed..it is just a slow ebb down to target..
last chart of this was on page 119 for any of those interested..
have a great evening..
and take care
ac

ps..first chart was on page 102
ac


----------



## acouch

good morning all
today's road map
have a great day, and good trades
ac


----------



## Trembling Hand

Gee the _Boyz _are really holding this sucker down well!


----------



## MRC & Co

Trembling Hand said:


> Gee the _Boyz _are really holding this sucker down well!




They are being complete nobs lately.

Holding it down when other markets rally, pushing it up when other markets  come off.  Intraday that is.

Better to not even look at international indices ATM, just causing headaches.


----------



## Trembling Hand

MRC & Co said:


> They are being complete nobs lately.




LOL, Thats their job


----------



## MRC & Co

Trembling Hand said:


> LOL, Thats their job




Yeh, but the spec stock, I mean index, that is the SPI, is a pretty easy job.

Usually, you get a squeeze, then it goes, last couple weeks, you just get nothing at all or a move the complete opposite direction.


----------



## Trembling Hand

And so it goes! 

Pretty much following the same pattern since the start of Dec of gaping and rotation back into yesterdays range, mostly the mid of yesterday.

Bar the odd running day.


----------



## MRC & Co

Trembling Hand said:


> And so it goes!




Yah, regardless of Asias movements.


----------



## tech/a

Trembling Hand said:


> And so it goes!
> 
> Pretty much following the same pattern since the start of Dec of gaping and rotation back into yesterdays range, mostly the mid of yesterday.
> 
> Bar the odd running day.






MRC & Co said:


> Yah, regardless of Asias movements.




And this from another scalping the HSI



> 1: 55pm "*my view is *we bottomed for the day, back to highs by eod"






> What I meant was *I changed my mind *by 2:10PM about the days direction, not long after, *I changed it again back *to bullish.






Sorry just dont understand these comments surely when scalping there is no personal view simply trading supply and demand.

Who cares what happens where --- the tape or DOM tells it all.
How can you trade like this when you have a bias.
Judgement would be clouded.

In our HSI traders example he's simply guessing the market no scalping here.
Supply and demand are a "Feeling" not an anylitical observation.


----------



## Trembling Hand

tech/a said:


> Who cares what happens where --- the tape or DOM tells it all.
> How can you trade like this when you have a bias.
> Judgement would be clouded.




What ya talking about??


----------



## tech/a

Your kidding.

We have 3 people who scalp.
Why do they care or even have an opinion of why the market they are trading is moving in a particular direction?

No problem just an observation of my own.(Particularly HSI guy.)


----------



## Trembling Hand

tech/a said:


> Your kidding.
> 
> We have 3 people who scalp.
> Why do they care or even have an opinion of why the market they are trading is moving in a particular direction?
> 
> No problem just an observation of my own.(Particularly HSI guy.)




LOL.

Because if you know what its going to do before it does it you make money.

It ain't just throwing orders in front of dudes putting spoof orders in the DOM. Its reading order flow and from my comment at 10:14 - 3 min before we failed to take out the highs then revered to set new lows I was on the money. *And made money from my opinion*. Don't see whats wrong with that  In fact what MR C & I was pointing out was the main money making theme during the morning session. It was going down!!


----------



## MRC & Co

Scalping is not all about DOM.

Analysing the psychology behind the flows, is a large part of it for some.  Who is trapped?  What is that spoof?  Does he want his fill and is really trying to get people to attack his direction to get better fills before going to market to finish up (driving the price up if his spoof was originally on the bid, because he actually wanted fills) or is he simply trying to drive price the other way to get fills on the other side (i.e.  he is spoofing the ask, so people frontrun him and he puts his orders in the book on the ask to get short)?  Some take opinions and form a bias at certain times, while other times purely rely on DOM, some never take a bias and purely trade off DOM.  

DOM is not the be all and end all, it is just another tool to be used, which can add a big advantage at certain times.  Other times, it doesn't help a bit, whilst others, it can be more of a hinderance.  Knowing the difference is the hard part but the key.

That is my opinion anyways.  

My comment, is based on this:  If the main markets in our timeframe (Nikkei, HSI, S&P) move in one direction significantly, you can usually expect a big guy to push the SPI the other way, then move it in the direction of the other markets.  Knowing to look for this, is just another reason to be intimate with your market.  Unlike Europe, being first on the SPI, is sometimes a curse (due to it's illiquidity and hence, manipulative nature).


----------



## MRC & Co

MRC & Co said:


> (i.e.  he is spoofing the *bid*, so people frontrun him and he puts his orders in the book on the ask to get short)? .




Sorry, the above quote is meant to read like it does now.


----------



## tech/a

MRC & Co said:


> Scalping is not all about DOM.
> 
> Analysing the psychology behind the flows, is a large part of it for some.  Who is trapped?  What is that spoof?  *Does he want *his fill and *is really trying to get people* to attack his direction to get better fills before going to market to finish up (driving the price up* if *his spoof was originally on the bid, because *he actually *wanted fills) *or* is he simply trying to drive price the other way to get fills on the other side (i.e.  he is spoofing the ask, so people frontrun him and he puts his orders in the book on the ask to get short)*? * Some take opinions and form a bias at certain times, while other times purely rely on DOM, some never take a bias and purely trade off DOM.




You cant be serious?

You dont actually believe that there are people out there who from the movement in orders on and off the board,can become expert in the psychology of those who are placing and withdrawing these bids.
To such a degree they trade large parcels which take real kahuna's (Whoa I bet it does) with massive _percieved_ confidence.

And you wish to emulate that type of trading?

Infact fund managers are searching these people out!
These people look after our superfunds and the worlds currencies!

*God help us!*

Yeh I know I just dont have any idea.
Ignorance is bliss and profitable.


----------



## Trembling Hand

So tech, The God of ALL trading, no comment on the fact that we picked the direction of the day from watching DOM 

That we managed to *see *something??


----------



## acouch

good morning all
today's road map
have a great day, and good trades
ac


----------



## prawn_86

Tech,

I find it amusing that you have said that you are only just playing with the SPI, and yet now you are profitable, it seems that everyone else's methods are inferior.

You of all people should know that there are many ways to turn a buck, after all some said that VSA wouldn't work on the SPI, so why is it you slag off things that you think wont work?


----------



## sails

Trembling Hand said:


> ...That we managed to *see *something??




Obviously "see" is the operative word here - it's probably like spotting a VSA set-up, Tech.


----------



## Trembling Hand

prawn_86 said:


> after all some said that VSA wouldn't work on the SPI, so why is it you slag off things that you think wont work?




Prawn my initial questions about VSA on futs was to do with rollover not the actual method. Which Tech is, I'm guessing, still blissful unaware. My specific question on VSA was how was he going to handle the 4 months of the year when 300,000 contracts get rolled and completely F'k the charts for that month??

But he hasn't answered even when I gently prodded him he has ignored my questions because it would be a hit to his ego to take anything from a "punch drunk boxer on ice".

So I will just wait till the 2 week expert runs into such a problem :

See chart below of a roll-over month typical vol chart for the day. F'kin mess, half the days vol isn't real!! Spread your analysis over that!!


----------



## acouch

haha..
had to laugh th re chart 
nice start to the day
ac


----------



## sails

Trembling Hand said:


> ...See chart below of a roll-over month typical vol chart for the day. F'kin mess, half the days vol isn't real!! Spread your analysis over that!!




I used to hate rollover week when trading the spi ages ago because of the total mess up with volume.  I used to have both contracts together on my watchlist to try and determine how much was roll over - most of it was and it was pretty hopeless.  I reckon it would take  software to cancel out the roll over volume and only display the little that was left.


----------



## pilbara

MRC & Co said:


> If the main markets in our timeframe (Nikkei, HSI, S&P) move in one direction significantly, you can usually expect a big guy to push the SPI the other way, then move it in the direction of the other markets.



I've never traded the SPI but I imagine traders who are opening large equity positions use the SPI to hedge their equity exposure?  So the natural tendency during a move in the equity market is for a reverse move in the futures market, then soon after, arbitrage will close this gap, and then momentum moves it after that?


----------



## tech/a

Prawn,T/H

Ive always maintained and still do that a chart is a chart.
So my 2 weeks "experience " trading the SPI is just a part of 14 yrs charting.
Guessing even experienced guessing has in MY view no place in trading or any other business venture.

Seeing something B4 it happens is indeed instinct (I call it guessing).
Ive seen a number of scatter charts from those that trade this way.
There are huge amounts of trades both sides and the single scatter chart I saw from T/H that was profitable was very well held by 3 excellent outlier trades.

Look if you all feel this is the way to trade go for it.
But there will be many who could well bankrupt themselves just have a look at the HSI tread.

I prefer to trade whats just happened wether that be daily or on a 2 min chart.(VSA incidently--reading the bars is only valid for the next 3 bars--so you are literally looking at a chart say 2 min every 6 min to understand what Suppl and Demand are doing.

Volume for the top 2 bars in chart 1 were 
196 in the top reversal bar and 111 in the folowing up bar.
NO DEMAND!

At 3400 I'm short.
At the next shot its being tested Double bottom
but volume on the 2nd test is way less than the first so no demand

It breaks lower on the 3rd chart shot.
Which now brings us to a high volume reversal bar which I'm now looking closely at the next bar will tell a lot Currently little supply so this is a test.
Trailing stop now screwed down. I expect the low to be tested so this is slowing.

No guessing its happening.
This morning it was/is very clear whats happening on the SPI.
Good heavens its Taken me out.
See chart 5.

Cant get more live than that and 20 points/ticks/pips---errr


----------



## tech/a

Chart 6

Now looking for continuation or Reversal signals safely sitting on the side lines.


----------



## tech/a

No demand  high in this group crap volume.
Coming off.


----------



## tech/a

Heavens it came off.
Very high volume this bar this recient high will be tested


----------



## Trembling Hand

Tech you trading anything EOD?


----------



## tech/a

Good god here it comes.
What do you reckon will it fail or will it succeed?


----------



## prawn_86

Tech,

You convieniently avoided my point. Perhaps a chart is a chart, thats not my arguement (you and TH can bash that one out), my point is its amazing how quick you are to critisize other profitable methods.

Perhaps everyone in the world should follow your method and then nothing would move and no-one would make cash... 

All im saying is if a method has been proved possible, over many years, such as scalping, then who cares if it doesnt fit what you belive? It obviously works.


----------



## James Austin

tech/a said:


> Good god here it comes.
> What do you reckon will it fail or will it succeed?




personally tech, i hope it fails, i want to go long at 3354


----------



## Trembling Hand

prawn_86 said:


> Tech,
> 
> You convieniently avoided my point. Perhaps a chart is a chart, thats not my arguement (you and TH can bash that one out), my point is its amazing how quick you are to critisize other profitable methods.
> 
> Perhaps everyone in the world should follow your method and then nothing would move and no-one would make cash...
> 
> All im saying is if a method has been proved possible, over many years, such as scalping, then who cares if it doesn't fit what you believe? It obviously works.




Prawn and on that, as you noticed no answers from Tech, no discussion. Just the crap that he needs to spew out. Just dwelling and arguing on bullsh!t that in fact no one even disagreed with him. His so prickly a small legitimate question will get him  and all puffed up forever. What a joke!!

And then he has some need to try and discredit others who are trying to contribute something to this place, Tosser!!


----------



## James Austin

Trembling Hand said:


> Prawn and on that, as you noticed no answers from Tech, no discussion. Just the crap that he needs to spew out. Just dwelling and arguing on bullsh!t that in fact no one even disagreed with him. His so prickly a small legitimate question will get him  and all puffed up forever. What a joke!!
> 
> And then he has some need to try and discredit others who are trying to contribute something to this place, Tosser!!




TH we all know the drill for budding SPI traders. 

SO enthusiastic and over confident at the start, denial in the middle, tears at the end.


----------



## tech/a

Obviously works.

T/H has posted a few runs.
He admittedly posted One excellent day.
Hes never posted a day of loss that I can remember.
I'm sure he has losses.

I dont know that it is all THAT obvious.
My attempt a balancing the arguement is seen as personal vendetta's.

Not so.

All of those who trade this way are a pretty amiable lot.
What I'm attempting ---rather poorly---is to point out that guessing---which is what most of these so called scalpers do---will lead to very quick bankruptcy.
Ala HSI thread.

T/H and co are mentioned as thats how they trade.
Other attempting to emulate should read the HSI thread.
I just dont think---and its a personal opinion--- that people should look at this as "THE" answer to profits rather---in the VAST majority of cases--- a first class ticket to bankruptcy.

Anyway its belted through resistance on VOLUME so long?


----------



## prawn_86

Hey tech,

My point would be that any form of trading can lead to failure more often than not, that goes for both chart reading and scalping.

Re: THs profits, i suggest you check out this thread:
https://www.aussiestockforums.com/forums/showthread.php?p=369715&highlight=scalping#post369715

Read my last post in it. (about 4th from last)

Once agian i can confirm i have seen all THs statements from that account, and that they were all legit. You will prob argue that he is the exeption to the rule, but what stops you being the exception to the rule to SPI VSA trading... 


PS *mod hat on* - can we please tone down the insults a bit TH


----------



## tech/a

Last chart I reckon the 2 week wonder has made his point.

Enjoy your trading.
Guess where Im short again?

Back to work for me.


----------



## Trembling Hand

James Austin said:


> SO enthusiastic and over confident at the start, denial in the middle, tears at the end.




That's just my normal day!!


----------



## tech/a

VSA its just rubbish.
Watching testing of the low (Current) now.


----------



## Bronte

tech/a said:


> Back to work for me.



Don't give up your day job tech 


Trembling Hand said:


> That's just my normal day!!



"SO enthusiastic and over confident at the start, denial in the middle, tears at the end."
Very funny TH
Bronte


----------



## Trembling Hand

Tech, Robinhood is just *starting* trading on sim the HSI with something that he has an interest in. And your response is to dumb on him.

Nice!!

Must be good to know the perfect way to go right from the start hey?

By the way could you tell us if you are doing any trading EOD. Please!!

And you are still banging on about VSA when I have pointed out THREE times that my question about it was how you are going to deal  with the roll overs?? For god sake!!! I have even posted a couple of pages back that we are actually looking for the same friggin thing!!


----------



## tech/a

James Austin said:


> TH we all know the drill for budding SPI traders.
> 
> SO enthusiastic and over confident at the start, denial in the middle, tears at the end.





Its simply a chart.

Ive copped my fair share of flack here so I'm just defending myself with real life example.

*Edit* stopped at 3360.
Thats it from me 40 ticks in a few hrs.
Thanks for the chat.


----------



## Trembling Hand

tech/a said:


> Ive copped my fair share of flack here .




Mmmm wonder why. 

LOL


----------



## MS+Tradesim

Trembling Hand said:


> That's just my normal day!!




LOL!  

Tissue? Or a beer?


----------



## tech/a

Trembling Hand said:


> Tech, Robinhood is just *starting* trading on sim the HSI with something that he has an interest in. And your response is to dumb on him.
> 
> Nice!!




I'm as subtle as a brick.
I highlighted where he is destroying himself. Clearly he has no plan.He doesnt need encouragement to continue trading the way he is. He IS LOST.



> Must be good to know the perfect way to go right from the start hey?




I know what works and why.



> By the way could you tell us if you are doing any trading EOD. Please!!




No its to thin



> And you are still banging on about VSA when I have pointed out THREE times that my question about it was how you are going to deal  with the roll overs?? For god sake!!! I have even posted a couple of pages back that we are actually looking for the same friggin thing!!




Now that youve warned me I wont trade at roll over.
But will certainly have a look at it.
Same problem I would _guess_ poor liquidity.

I bang on about it because it clearly works! (In the above demo anyway.)

Let me shout you a beer when in town.
Goes for the hood and Mrc---prawn and co.


----------



## Bronte

tech/a said:


> Anyway its belted through resistance on VOLUME so long?



Did you not go LONG at 11.01 AM tech/a ?
See 1 min SPI chart:
Now 3352 LOW
Bronte


----------



## Trembling Hand

MS+Tradesim said:


> LOL!
> 
> Tissue? Or a beer?




Smashed mouse followed by a 10K run then a couple of beers


----------



## Bronte

James Austin said:


> personally tech, i hope it fails, i want to go long at *3354*



This is a nice call James.
3352 LOW
Now 3360
3364 High
Bronte


----------



## tech/a

Bronte said:


> Did you not go LONG at 11.01 AM tech/a ?
> See 1 min SPI chart:
> Now 3352 LOW
> Bronte




Read Bronte read.
#2728 was already short on the chart I posed the question---you do see the question mark dont you?.

Anyway there are your trades.
I can see yours where????----

I'm sick of the armchair experts who type knowingly with jack evidence of any ability at all.
Hence my copious postings this morning.
Wont be making a habit of it.

Gotta go.


----------



## cuttlefish

What can I say - I love it fellla's - keep it up! 

I don't care or know who's right or wrong, but I enjoy reading the banter and learn a bit about people's methods along the way!

As I've posted in another thread I've been attempting to apply VSA intraday to a couple of the high liquidity blue chips that I do options trading around.

My view is that it works and does give the types of signals Tech is pointing out in his charts on here and elsewhere.  Awaiting confirmation is one of the key factors in interpreting volume as supply or demand - and its important to look for cancellation of any confirmation signals as well. (Not all volume signals a reversal - its very useful in confirming a continuation as well.)

I use the 1 min bars as my main tracking - but I'm consolidating them mentally and also only honing in on the actual 1 minute timeframe when a volume signal starts to appear.  I'm also interpreting the short time frame view within the structure of wider 5 min, 15 min, hour and daily timeframe views. Then in trying to refine the interpretation when a signal is forming, I'm often then focusing on depth - in which case its not too long before you're starting to look for the sorts of things MRC is describing in his post earlier on - and then its not too long before you're also jumping to the tape to check things as well - to understand where in a bar volume actually occurred and in what form. 

On that basis my view is that intraday VSA in the very short timeframes (1 min/5 min) starts to morph into depth/tape reading as you get to a turning/continuation point  (i.e. as you're trying to interpret direction (supply/demand) after volume gives a signal).    

Thus what Tech labels as 'guessing' in relation to how TH, MRC etc. trade,  might have a very similar basis to the VSA that he is applying but honed down to an 'intuitive art form' over years of experience (particularly in TH's case).


----------



## prawn_86

Trembling Hand said:


> Smashed mouse followed by a 10K run then a couple of beers




10k's **** that. i run 3ks 3 times a week and tried upping it to 5 and nearly died! To think i used be a district champ...


----------



## acouch

i myself quite like a 50 volume chart for scalping..
but no good on low volume days ..then i go into a tic chart..
have a good day
ac

support for spi today is 34/42 mark..looks to me..


----------



## Bronte

tech/a said:


> Anyway its belted through resistance on VOLUME *so long*?



*so long *:  So I am long.
Being "LONG"... "Owning or buying a stock or commodity in anticipation of a rise in price."
Cheers 
Bronte


----------



## Trembling Hand

tech/a said:


> Seeing something B4 it happens is indeed instinct (I call it guessing).
> Ive seen a number of scatter charts from those that trade this way.
> There are huge amounts of trades both sides and the single scatter chart I saw from T/H that was profitable was very well held by 3 excellent outlier trades.
> 
> Look if you all feel this is the way to trade go for it.
> But there will be many who could well bankrupt themselves just have a look at the HSI tread.






cuttlefish said:


> On that basis my view is that intraday VSA in the very short timeframes (1 min/5 min) starts to morph into depth/tape reading as you get to a turning/continuation point  (i.e. as you're trying to interpret direction (supply/demand) after volume gives a signal).
> 
> Thus what Tech labels as 'guessing' in relation to how TH, MRC etc. trade,  might have a very similar basis to the VSA that he is applying but honed down to an 'intuitive art form' over years of experience (particularly in TH's case).





No Cuttlefish what I do is guessing  What Someone Like Frank D does is legitimate because its over a longer time. I think that is what Tech is saying. LOL. Or maybe he is saying that Frank is just guessing as well? Yes that must be the case. Frank your just guessing 

Actually cuttlefish what you have so clearly posted is what I have been trying to say for some time.


----------



## Trembling Hand

prawn_86 said:


> 10k's **** that. i run 3ks 3 times a week and tried upping it to 5 and nearly died! To think i used be a district champ...




Well people think I'm nutts already might as well confirm that. Missed the entry for this. Will get it next year  
http://www.coolrunning.com.au/ultra/wiki/index.php/Cradle_Mountain_Run


----------



## peter2

Tech/a was being sarcastic with his question about going long after seeing the high volume breakout bar. (Sarcasm is extremely difficult to convey in a forum.) This price action is designed to catch the breakout traders and put them into a losing trade. The profitable breakout traders take the small loss while the others hope and pray.

Tech/a evaluated the immediate reversal and went short soon after and made a nice profit from his interpretation of the chart action.


----------



## prawn_86

Trembling Hand said:


> Well people think I'm nutts already might as well confirm that. Missed the entry for this. Will get it next year
> http://www.coolrunning.com.au/ultra/wiki/index.php/Cradle_Mountain_Run




Ultra marathons are crazy! I'll stick to my 800m 1500m 3k and 6k cross country 

Must be tough having all that spare time from guessing profitably hey TH


----------



## wayneL

Deja Vu...

I recognise that ego from somewhere. :

There has been some very dodgy and nebulous calls here.

If folks want to post actual entries and exits, do it immediately. "Guess where I'm short from" doesn't cut it.

Tech, you know the rules, you invented them.


----------



## tech/a

wayneL said:


> Deja Vu...
> 
> I recognise that ego from somewhere. :
> 
> There has been some very dodgy and nebulous calls here.
> 
> If folks want to post actual entries and exits, do it immediately. "Guess where I'm short from" doesn't cut it.
> 
> Tech, you know the rules, you invented them.




Get a grip how fast do you think 
(1) I can type.
(2) Place an order buy or sell
(3) Photograph a realtime chart.
(4) Load it all onto this server.

I reckon Ive done the best Ive seen.
Good on me.

Ha ha and there are 4 ticks between posts.

*Bronte /Austin*

Those longs look good?
Or are you out?
Out I guess--hope.


----------



## Trembling Hand

tech/a said:


> So my 2 weeks "experience " trading the SPI is just a part of 14 yrs charting.
> Guessing even experienced guessing has in *MY view no place in trading or any other business venture.*




Tech is Frank "guessing" and therefore not a legitimate way to carry out a business??


----------



## cuttlefish

MRC & Co said:
			
		

> Analysing the psychology behind the flows, is a large part of it for some. Who is trapped? What is that spoof? Does he want his fill and is really trying to get people to attack his direction to get better fills before going to market to finish up (driving the price up if his spoof was originally on the bid, because he actually wanted fills) or is he simply trying to drive price the other way to get fills on the other side (i.e. he is spoofing the bid, so people frontrun him and he puts his orders in the book on the ask to get short)? Some take opinions and form a bias at certain times, while other times purely rely on DOM, some never take a bias and purely trade off DOM.
> 
> DOM is not the be all and end all, it is just another tool to be used, which can add a big advantage at certain times. Other times, it doesn't help a bit, whilst others, it can be more of a hinderance. Knowing the difference is the hard part but the key.








			
				tech/a said:
			
		

> You cant be serious?
> 
> You dont actually believe that there are people out there who from the movement in orders on and off the board,can become expert in the psychology of those who are placing and withdrawing these bids.
> To such a degree they trade large parcels which take real kahuna's (Whoa I bet it does) with massive percieved confidence.
> 
> And you wish to emulate that type of trading?
> 
> Infact fund managers are searching these people out!
> These people look after our superfunds and the worlds currencies!
> 
> God help us!
> 
> Yeh I know I just dont have any idea.
> Ignorance is bliss and profitable





Tech - when you are applying VSA you are often looking for tests/confirmation.  It makes sense to me that a larger player, when seeing support (or resistance) come in (lets use support for the example) will not want to wait for the market to test the results but will run their own testing.

So for example if there is rising volume appearing as a down move occurs and the move slows we're trying to determine if the demand is sufficent to overcome supply or if its possible the demand is simply support while supply is fed in before support being pulled and the down move continuing. (and this new down phase will be fed by a large amount of the recent support level demand that has turned around and rolled over into supply as it saw its support levels breached.)

We we as small players can watch for this and look for the confirmation signals that tell us which it is - but a larger player I'm assuming will run their own testing.  

e.g. when a down move slows, put a few sell orders on a bit higher up in the ask (not too much just a little bit of volume) then run the price up to that supply level - see if demand comes out of the woodwork and takes that supply - if it does add a bit more - watch how strong the demand is - if the testing shows the demand isn't sufficient put some proper big orders on the bid and feed out the rest of supply inventory - instantly pullling and replacing the support orders if they get hit by any non-trivial volume - maintain this while most of the supply is fed out - then pull the support orders and feed remaining supply into the thin depth to push price down and flush out further supply.  If further supply isn't forthcoming to enable restocking of the inventory or rollover of the support level, then run back up over the small amount of supply that did appear then put a larger order back down on the even smaller amount of demand that follows it up (this is fairly safe because there won't be much because it was already tested a minute ago).  Then increase inventory by buying up at the lower price, pulling and replacing the large sell orders on the offer if they get hit by anything but non-trivial volume.

etc. etc. - I probably haven't been that clear but you know the sort of thing I mean - its pretty obvious that there is some of it going on - everyone is probably trying to be more clever than the next person- big players being played by the even bigger players etc.  - but close observation of this action can provide a lot of information about the supply/demand equation.


----------



## wayneL

tech/a said:


> Get a grip how fast do you think
> (1) I can type.
> (2) Place an order buy or sell
> (3) Photograph a realtime chart.
> (4) Load it all onto this server.
> 
> I reckon Ive done the best Ive seen.
> Good on me.
> 
> Ha ha and there are 4 ticks between posts.
> 
> *Bronte /Austin*
> 
> Those longs look good?
> Or are you out?
> Out I guess--hope.



I repeat, You invented the rules.

Charts can come later. The trade call needs to be ASAP.

eg I bought XYZ @ 2345 within a couple of minutes, otherwise, it just ain't live.

Surely you can live by your own demands on others?


----------



## tech/a

Trembling Hand said:


> Tech is Frank "guessing" and therefore not a legitimate way to carry out a business??




I'm still reading Franks work (In between typing).
I'm impressed with what Ive read so far and also Franks thought process.No he's not guessing from what Ive read .

*Wayne*

I was making a point with the VSA charts if I didnt post the charts as soon as I evaluated it then I would have been accused of hindsite again.

I wont be posting any more Trades Ive posted enough of that stuff and have made my point.
So when do I get my "Rules Moderator" status?

*Cuttle* I will reply later when I have some more time sorry!


----------



## prawn_86

Breaking it right down to base level, *ANY form of trading is guessing*.

Tech you are still guessing, you do not know with 100% accuracy that the trade will work, hence there is some uncertainty, so its a guess. If you are wrong you cut your losses short

And dont go on about positive expectancy, because scalpers have proved numerous times over that their methods can be profitable.


----------



## cuttlefish

wayneL said:


> Deja Vu...
> 
> I recognise that ego from somewhere. :
> 
> There has been some very dodgy and nebulous calls here.
> 
> If folks want to post actual entries and exits, do it immediately. "Guess where I'm short from" doesn't cut it.
> 
> Tech, you know the rules, you invented them.




For the amount of time he's been posting here I'm happy to give tech enough credibility to believe he's posting in real time.  I'd like to know if they are paper trades or real trades  (its easierr to forget paper entries/exits that didn't work ) - and of course as the critics are pointing out - a few good days/trades doesn't necessarily equate to long term success, so it will be interesting to see how this all unfolds.


----------



## Trembling Hand

Ok so Frank will trade from what he sees playing out over the next 10, 27, 44 point moves from patterns he has historically found. That's legit.

I trade the next 3 ,6 ,12 to 40 ticks from patterns I have historically seen repeat often enough to make some $ from but that's not?


----------



## tech/a

Prawn does make an interesting point one I dont have time to answer today.
T/H your point also needs more time than I have so will return tommorow.


----------



## lesm

prawn_86 said:


> Breaking it right down to base level, *ANY form of trading is guessing*.
> 
> Tech you are still guessing, you do not know with 100% accuracy that the trade will work, hence there is some uncertainty, so its a guess. If you are wrong you cut your losses short
> 
> And dont go on about positive expectancy, because scalpers have proved numerous times over that their methods can be profitable.




Define guessing.

There will always be a degree of uncertainty, but is it an absolute guess,  or an informed guess or decision, based on probabilities from statistical data, historical experience, or an experiential basis. If it is the former (absolute guess) may as well use a blindfold and pin or throw darts or take random entries/exits.

If a trader identifies that a particular set of patterns or characteristics, regardless of the underlying basis, give him/her a basis upon which to trade profitably and consistently, isn't that what really matters at the end of the day

Positive expectancy is an overused or abused term and hides a number of potential sins or is used as a throw away term. There is a need to consider the overall consistency of any given approach through time.

Cheers.


----------



## MS+Tradesim

lesm said:


> Positive expectancy is an overused or abused term and hides a number of potential sins or is used as a throw away term. There is a need to consider the overall consistency of any given approach through time.




This is a very good point. I can come up with any number of ideas that have positive expantancy but the variance in return, the frequency and size of drawdowns, etc. mean I would never trade them.

I would say positive expectancy is a good starting point but agree that consistency and smoothness of the equity curve have to be the next steps.  People trade their beliefs. If you can consistently make money doing so, then the variations in methodology don't matter one iota.

But this is a digression from the thread.


----------



## Frank D

There is guessing, and then there is *pattern recognition and 
probability*, which is what traders need to use to be successful, 
whether it's my work or other methods shown throughout this thread or 
pure mechanical systems.

We have a Friday breakout of the Weekly lows @ 3426 and heading down, 
as part of the Monthly trend down into January’s lows.

*Today’s set-up was to short trade below 3426*, but only after 
price had risen 22 points, that would have set-up the perfect short trade
 as it aligned with the Weekly lows and coming down from a R22 top.

That didn’t happen falling short by 4 points

So I went long around the channel lows and support @ 3366.

Once again bouncing 18 points but looking for a 44 point up move.

Once price couldn’t hold 3366, switched to shorts and looking for a 
move down into Friday’s lows, and next r44 completion.

*Friday’s lows @ 3339 and valid support zones matched by the R44 lows…*

But we need to keep in mind that Actual trend of the market, if it can’t 
hold 3339 then it’s simply part of the larger trends driving the market
 lower.

Into longs now, but I already know the Risk of buying the market 
around these levels today.

It’s been supported above 3339 now for nearly 1 hour but it’s not 
bouncing, therefore I know the risk after 2pm if selling appears…

If price rises upwards into 3366 (resistance), but more more buying 
appears, there could actually result in a HOOK bar over 3366 and 
further Buying into the close.

There is no guessing in the market, that's for amateurs:- *either the 
market trends or rotates, and it's about finding levels in the market 
that defines support and resistance, and trade as close to them as
 possible*.

Now I'm long in the most optimal level in the market:- sprial low and 
5-day low,  but the market will tell me if i'm right or wrong.

But because my morning set-up played out but not precise enough for me 
to enter the trade, *I’m left to scrapping out 10-20 point moves, and run stops accordingly,* and knowing that if it breaks 3339 it's going lower.


----------



## MRC & Co

tech/a said:


> You cant be serious?
> 
> You dont actually believe that there are people out there who from the movement in orders on and off the board,can become expert in the psychology of those who are placing and withdrawing these bids.
> To such a degree they trade large parcels which take real kahuna's (Whoa I bet it does) with massive _percieved_ confidence.
> 
> And you wish to emulate that type of trading?
> 
> Infact fund managers are searching these people out!
> These people look after our superfunds and the worlds currencies!
> 
> *God help us!*
> 
> Yeh I know I just dont have any idea.
> Ignorance is bliss and profitable.




I made a post in reply to this, but just edited it.

No point replying.


----------



## Cartman

cuttlefish said:


> - everyone is probably trying to be more clever than the next person- *big players being played by the even bigger players *etc.  - but close observation of this action can provide a lot of information about the supply/demand equation.





lol ....... i made a similar statement somewhere a while back re the big boyz and the bigger/biggest boyz ----------- people thought i was on drugs   (not on ice though !! )  haha ---- hope u get a more favorable response C/F -----  like the way u think  

ps this thread is kicking some serious butt ---- good stuff ----


----------



## sails

Is that an iceberg happening now at 3342?

EDIT:  Was that an iceberg??


----------



## tech/a

MRC & Co said:


> I made a post in reply to this, but just edited it.
> 
> No point replying.




I actually read it MRC.
Can you tell me where I can actually go and watch these guys live.
PM me with details Id love to see it and will be in most states over the next 12 mths so wont be a problem.

Frankly MRC I think you'll do well scalping you have the ideal temperament.


----------



## Trembling Hand

tech/a said:


> I actually read it MRC.
> Can you tell me where I can actually go and watch these guys live.
> PM me with details Id love to see it and will be in most states over the next 12 mths so wont be a problem.




Tech why don't you give them a talk on what they do wrong. After all what would a group of traders that do 30% of the SPI vol daily, day in day out for years know.


You could maybe name your seminar "Why my way is better than yours" :


----------



## tech/a

Quickest I could post it up.
Short again.
Stop 48


----------



## Joolean

Haha. Very entertaining.  Though I can't believe this kind of banter is going on amongst experienced traders.

That was an interesting read cuttlefish. Can you point me to the article you wrote Cartman along the same lines? I'm always interested in any information on the other participants in the game.

Cheers,
Jules.

And FWIW, Pepsi is better.


----------



## peter2

Interesting that the high vol breakout at 3380 earlier this morning turned into a false breakout and you waited for confirmation (next bar reversal) and on this occasion you took the high volume breakdown without waiting for the following bar confirmation. 

Tech/a : How was this break out different to the earlier one at 3380? 
Did knowing that 3339 was a Frank D support level influence you?

[btw: Thanks Frank D for the setup. ]


----------



## Trembling Hand

I'll play long at 3312 stop 3311


----------



## MS+Tradesim

Sheesh. Just trade, people. Your bottom line will tell you the only thing that matters about your method.


----------



## tech/a

Stop 3320
Watching 2 min bars looking for strength or weakness in the next few bars.
The last 2 min bar was long range massive volume in comparison to others.
Is this move still strong or weak?

I'll be chacing the stop down as its close to EOD for me no trading after 3.30 it goes spastic.
Ah dont have to worry stopped at 3320.


----------



## Frank D

5-day breakout @ 3339, but normally price action only moves 44 points 
and then moves back towards the 5-day break…

Hard to tell on a day like today, whether there is going to be any 
reversals, as it has struggled to even do 1x22 point reversal today.

Break of 3339 and switch into shorts and exit.

*Random support 3294*


Keep in mind that this is a larger trend drive downwards into January's
lows, so the market is currently in a so called 'free-fall' into a lower Friday close.

*Weekly report out tomorrow*


----------



## Trembling Hand

Can someone take that spoof out at 3320? 75 % sell at 3224. Ride the rest to 3330ish


----------



## MS+Tradesim

Trembling Hand said:


> Can someone take that spoof out at 3320? 75 % sell at 3224. Ride the rest to 3330ish




Sorry. Can't help. Unless you know how to rout orders from the sim to the real market? 

Waiting to cover at 3320 or hold for move down.


----------



## Trembling Hand

Ping, stop!


----------



## Trembling Hand

MS+Tradesim said:


> Sorry. Can't help. Unless you know how to rout orders from the sim to the real market?
> 
> Waiting to cover at 3320 or hold for move down.




Someone did but it didn't help it just got him


----------



## skc

Today seems like a good set up for a 4pm spike up. Future is trading well below fair value compared to the cash.


----------



## Trembling Hand

LOL the SPI has turned into the ES!!


----------



## MRC & Co

3300, WOW!  What a nice support!   

Thx Tech, I gather that was your 1000 lots?


----------



## MRC & Co

tech/a said:


> You cant be serious?
> 
> You dont actually believe that there are people out there who from the movement in orders on and off the board,can become expert in the psychology of those who are placing and withdrawing
> 
> Infact fund managers are searching these people out!
> These people look after our superfunds and the worlds currencies!




ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha.

Are you serious?  Do you understand what I was talking about?  The fund managers ARE the ones doing this, it is TRADERS mainly from prop divisions (and others such as TH) who are trying to work out this and exploit it, to work out which way the 'paper' is going.

Fund managers need to execute?  They will have traders trying to hide it.  Sometimes, you will just get brokers trying to beat VWAP, and other times, you will get brokers stop markets triggered, whereby you will get a very nice spike which you can get on with lightening fast software and perhaps even cut and reverse aftewards if your quick enough.  

Don't attack something you don't understand.


----------



## MRC & Co

tech/a said:


> Frankly MRC I think you'll do well scalping you have the ideal temperament.




Nice dig there.

Not sure what causes split personality, marajuana?  No wonder you take a longer-term approach, ideal temperament I guess 

Sorry, couldn't reply to your insults properly earlier, was too busy trading.


----------



## cuttlefish

peter2 said:


> Did knowing that 3339 was a Frank D support level influence you?
> 
> [btw: Thanks Frank D for the setup. ]





Well I'm not trading the SPI but I certainly made some good money out of that breakdown this afternoon so close to options expiry - always nice to see delta and gamma destroy theta.  (or is that delta destroying gamma, or vega destroying theta ... ).  Either way its


----------



## wayneL

tech/a said:


> Quickest I could post it up.
> Short again.
> Stop 48



Short where?

That bar was 8 points range or something.

Here is a true live call, because it calls the entry print. \/



Trembling Hand said:


> I'll play long at 3312 stop 3311


----------



## acouch

good evening all,
well we have had a lot of replies here today,
and it is interesting to see other peoples take on the market..
but the best thing is that traders are sharing..
when i started in futs 10 years ago it was like a closed school..which i am sure that some of you can relate to...
so we have come a long way over the years, also i think these chats sites have helped traders a lot..as it can be pretty lonely watching a computer all day 

but we can all have the same information, and all treat it differently.
and i think we have to respect traders in that way..

but it was a exciting day all the same,  to think that so many people are actually out there 
good trades and a great evening

ac


----------



## MRC & Co

MRC & Co said:


> DOM is just another tool to be used, which can add a big advantage at certain times.




Here is an example for you guys.  Who was watching DOM today towards close?  

230 lot at 298s, moved it up to 300s, before they STACKED the bids with more lots of 200+ in a row.  That is a SERIOUS statement, that cannot be seen on the chart.  A lot of people, made a lot of money, frontrunning that size.  

40 lots for just 10 ticks with plenty to lean on, is a cool and effortless 10k in a few minutes right there.


----------



## jersey10

MRC & Co said:


> Here is an example for you guys.  Who was watching DOM today towards close?
> 
> 230 lot at 298s, moved it up to 300s, before they STACKED the bids with more lots of 200+ in a row.  That is a SERIOUS statement, that cannot be seen on the chart.  A lot of people, made a lot of money, frontrunning that size.
> 
> 40 lots for just 10 ticks with plenty to lean on, is a cool and effortless 10k in a few minutes right there.





2 questions if i may.

1. how quickly did this happen?

2. how do you go about front running this size?  do you just buy at market as soon as you see bids being stacked?


----------



## MRC & Co

jersey10 said:


> 2 questions if i may.
> 
> 1. how quickly did this happen?
> 
> 2. how do you go about front running this size?  do you just buy at market as soon as you see bids being stacked?




Not exactly sure how quick, didn't take exact note, but well and truly enough time to get your orders in.

How do you frontrun it? Just place a limit order on the tick above the highest bid of 230 contracts.  More conviction to do so once they up ticked (moved the size up the bid from 3298s to 3300s), showing they were well and truly prepared to take their fills, and not just spoofing and far more conviction once they loaded the bid levels below it consecutively with 200+ lots on each of the levels below.  That is a statement and a half, that this particular level was being defended in the futs.  

Other times in the day, you will see guys defend the stocks in a similar manner, and whilst some futs guys try to drive it's price down, if cash (stocks) is being defended, then you will see the futs fling higher.  Vice-versa if at resistance.


----------



## tech/a

MRC & Co said:


> Here is an example for you guys.  Who was watching DOM today towards close?
> 
> 230 lot at 298s, moved it up to 300s, before they STACKED the bids with more lots of 200+ in a row.  That is a SERIOUS statement, that cannot be seen on the chart.  A lot of people, made a lot of money, frontrunning that size.
> 
> 40 lots for just 10 ticks with plenty to lean on, is a cool and effortless 10k in a few minutes right there.





MRC
Thats valid.
But ofcourse to trade 40 lots you need a margin of $250,000.
How many here have that sort of margin?
Sure you could trade 10 lots or 2

I guess you and T/H are trading Opens and Closes where you get this massive volitility as its so illiquid.

While I and others like me dont wish to be involved,for the reason you do want to be involved.
Both can trade the same instrument profitably.


----------



## acouch

good morning all
as Monday is closed for Australia Day,
this will have to be Tuesdays road map
have a great weekend and take care
ac


----------



## Trembling Hand

tech/a said:


> I guess you and T/H are trading Opens and Closes where you get this massive volitility as its so illiquid.
> 
> While I and others like me dont wish to be involved,for the reason you do want to be involved.





Illiquid 

You would of thought that someone who has volume as a major part of their system would actually know when the volume is expected to come into the market.

I guess you are right,



tech/a said:


> *God help us!*
> 
> Yeh I know I just dont have any idea.
> Ignorance is bliss and profitable.


----------



## Trembling Hand

MRC & Co said:


> Here is an example for you guys.  Who was watching DOM today towards close?
> 
> 230 lot at 298s, moved it up to 300s, before they STACKED the bids with more lots of 200+ in a row.  That is a SERIOUS statement, that cannot be seen on the chart.  A lot of people, made a lot of money, front running that size.
> 
> 40 lots for just 10 ticks with plenty to lean on, is a cool and effortless 10k in a few minutes right there.




Here is the video of the action Mr C is talking about. In some ways this is perfect example of ONE DOM trade but in others its exactly the type that get people confused.

It was an obvious trade once the bids got hit and then refreshed and lifted but I have to say when this kind of vol appears in the order book I hit it not front run it. In fact its become one of my fastest and favorable trades after 4:10. If a big order (50, 80,150) gets placed out side the first bid/ask level I will hit into it straight away. Even if it means flipping positions. 

And this kind of stuff is where DOM readers get the bad rap. Experts that haven't a friggin clue ASSUME they know what we do. They ASSUME we look at whats sitting in the book and trade with it. When 70% of the time I trade against it.

http://tremblinghandtrader.typepad.com/SPI @ 3300.avi

Warning its a big file, 18 meg! its from 4:00 to 4:30 and replayed at 6 times actual speed. best to right click the link and save rather than stream it.


----------



## tech/a

Very swift moves in the last  and 1st 30 mins are bought about by poor liquidity as larger parcels buy or sell whatever is on offer.
Ive seen a 1 min bar swing up and down within it self 10-15 ticks many times in the last 30 minutes trading. Large swings in seconds.


I was going to spend sometime working through questions and some answers.
Not going to flog a dead horse.

You guys can trade as you like its valid for you and suits your psychology. You like the flashy Gordon Gekko---sell sell---buy buy excitement.

Seems I'm vastly different to most here in slow and steady.

Finally.
Trading profitably without balls of steel and the mental dexterity of Bobby Fischer is achieveable.
So is the reverse.

And its goodby from me and goodby from him---on this thread.


----------



## Trembling Hand

tech/a said:


> Seems I'm vastly different to most here in slow and steady.




Glad to hear that Tech but it still doesn't answer the question as to why you feel the need to dish out criticism of traders who are vastly more profitable than you?

Random question, Whats your height


----------



## tech/a

6'2
Big enough and definately ugly enough to take care of you lot.
Think there are a few here who have met me.

Its not an attack on you or anyone else who wishes to trade as you do.
It seems as if it is.
My rant was started with the HSI guy making a statement like I'm $30k down in a sim----but that doesnt matter.

Frank and MS Tradesim made the point far better than I.


----------



## James Austin

tech/a said:


> Seems I'm vastly different to most here in slow and steady.
> 
> Finally.
> Trading profitably without balls of steel and the mental dexterity of Bobby Fischer is achieveable.
> So is the reverse.
> 
> And its goodby from me and goodby from him---on this thread.




tech,

i am with you re slow and steady, and no doubt others are also.

*my interpretation* of the thread over the week is that some may have been miffed that A] you havent been SPI trading for long; what about 5 trades!? and, B] your view of others' methods came across at times as divisive Vs. constructive criticism. So i think we can all see how things are in a tangle.

any way, tech, please consider starting a thread not unlike franks, detailing your SPI trading method, trades you have taken etc. i'm sure many will be interested.

james


----------



## wayneL

tech/a said:


> 6'2
> Big enough and definately ugly enough to take care of you lot.
> Think there are a few here who have met me.




Now he's the greatest fighter in the world. Are there no bounds to your prowess?


----------



## Trembling Hand

tech/a said:


> Its not an attack on you or anyone else who wishes to trade as you do.
> It seems as if it is.
> My rant was started with the HSI guy making a statement like I'm $30k down in a sim----but that doesnt matter.




You never tested a system that had a draw down of 30%.


----------



## IFocus

Joolean said:


> Haha. Very entertaining.  Though I can't believe this kind of banter is going on amongst experienced traders.




Nor can I  

But there are some very good insights for anyone starting out.


----------



## MRC & Co

In defence of RobinHood, he is trying out everything and anything under the sun on the SIM.  It's the beginning of the process of creating your own style in scalping and how most good training programs begin.  

As for the issue of size, yes, not usually a good idea to frontrun it.  You don't know who is out there on the other side to clip it.  But if that size, is not clipped and starts ticking towards the price action and going to market, this is when it's usually safer to frontrun it (except lately, with what looks like a bot and auto spreader doing it all day long and then pulling it all after taking half their fills).


----------



## Trembling Hand

MRC & Co said:


> In defence of RobinHood, he is trying out everything and anything under the sun on the SIM.  It's the beginning of the process of creating your own style in scalping and how most good training programs begin.




But some just,


tech/a said:


> know what works and why.



 Right from the start. Oh hold on. His systems don't work. His stopped it. He actually had no edge. It was just the bull market spewing out money like a broken ATM. LOL. So like most punters in this game his on the merry-go-round of changing Instrument, Time frames, System, Approaches & Application. The sad thing is he still thinks he knows what works but every thing he has tried to this point has stopped working yet he can still plainly state he knows what works. He knows what doesn't work! His systems! Why stop something that makes money? Ya don't. 

Just LOL.


----------



## IFocus

Trembling Hand said:


> It was an obvious trade once the bids got hit and then refreshed and lifted but I have to say when this kind of vol appears in the order book I hit it not front run it. *In fact its become one of my fastest and favorable trades after 4:10. If a big order (50, 80,150) gets placed out side the first bid/ask level I will hit into it straight away.* Even if it means flipping positions.
> 
> And this kind of stuff is where DOM readers get the bad rap. Experts that haven't a friggin clue ASSUME they know what we do. They ASSUME we look at whats sitting in the book and trade with it. *When 70% of the time I trade against it.*




I tested this some time ago and it worked  But I didn't have the psychology to trade it for real


----------



## MRC & Co

tech/a said:


> MRC
> 
> Both can trade the same instrument profitably.




What is this, it's not even part of the debate.

Tech, maybe you should go back and re-read the thread from the part where you attacked what I said about order flow and DOM, without having ANY IDEA what you were talking about.  You poked fun at it even, if that is not arrogance and ignorance, I don't know what is.  

Unbelievable.  As I have said many times, I respect your time in the markets, your dedication too it and your time spent on the site.  I just think you have a gripe against scalpers, which all became first apparent with your 'slight expectancy vindicating your observations' on TH original scalping thread.  There was absolutely no reason to stick your nose in a mock a method you have absolutely no clue about.  

Now, back to the SPI.  Some big bailouts being talked about by both Obama and Rudd, definately looking forward to the volume and volatility it should bring over the coming few weeks!  Perhaps even a surprise larger than expected rate cut by the RBA?  Times are starting to get interesting again, after the Christmas dead period.


----------



## Trembling Hand

MRC & Co said:


> I just think you have a gripe against scalpers, which all became first apparent with your 'slight expectancy vindicating your observations' on TH original scalping thread.




Ironic statement considering he has abandoned his beloved Idiot Wave and VSA on an EOD basis and now moving closer towards a scalping method/time frame.

That he was the one with slight expectancy that was only propped up by a bull market & now left with knowing what doesn't work! while short term traders are going from strength to strength with every shift in the market.

Just too funny!!


----------



## Cartman

Trembling Hand said:


> It was an obvious trade once the bids got hit and then refreshed and lifted but I have to say when this kind of vol appears in the order book *I hit it* not front run it.
> If a big order (50, 80,150) gets placed out side the first bid/ask level I will hit into it straight away. Even if it means flipping positions.
> 
> 70% of the time *I trade against it.
> *




so u find that the bid Vol is more often a 'red herring'  --- is this only the case during the first 30/last 30 mins? 

do u wait for confirmation (vol starting to hit the bids) b4 hitting the market or just go with the gut early ?


----------



## Trembling Hand

Whats confirmation?? The trade going to be wrong or right, waiting is only going to rob you of the move, having you getting in at the end of it with stops a mile wide.

Confirmation = Chop, Chop.


----------



## Cartman

Trembling Hand said:


> Whats confirmation?? The trade going to be wrong or right, waiting is only going to rob you of the move, having you getting in at the end of it with stops a mile wide.
> 
> Confirmation = Chop, Chop.




TH --- not talking about waiting for the next 1 minute bar to eventuate ------- 

i was thinking a coupla decent chops at the large bids sitting there to indicate the opposite position is a  good strategy ?? (maybe only  a few seconds) ---------  

i dont have DOM available yet so just thinking out aloud here ---- 

eg -- in mirc's example --- if there were a crapload of bids sitting there, he was happy to load up, but u r saying most of the time u will go the other way yes? ---

just interested in what makes u choose the other direction if u dont wait for a coupla decent hits at the sitting orders ------ 

i assume gut feel(aka  experience!)  coupled with a very tight stop?? --- is that close?? -----  just trying to learn here


----------



## Trembling Hand

No waiting. in this example I'm talking about the unique action of the SPI after cash close but it happens to some degree during cash hours as well just not so violently nor as quick. It is literally a 5 second trade. Hit whatever is in front of the big bid/offer, move your limit exit right behind or on top of the big order. Let the Bigger Boyz take you out as they chew the volume. It really is as rapid as a blink. A true scalp for a a punch drunk nutter on ICE like myself.

I will try and find an example and do another vid tomorrow before I p!ss off to Japa's for a couple of weeks.


----------



## BentRod

Trembling Hand said:


> Here is the video of the action Mr C is talking about. In some ways this is perfect example of ONE DOM trade but in others its exactly the type that get people confused.
> 
> It was an obvious trade once the bids got hit and then refreshed and lifted but I have to say when this kind of vol appears in the order book I hit it not front run it. In fact its become one of my fastest and favorable trades after 4:10. If a big order (50, 80,150) gets placed out side the first bid/ask level I will hit into it straight away. Even if it means flipping positions.
> 
> And this kind of stuff is where DOM readers get the bad rap. Experts that haven't a friggin clue ASSUME they know what we do. They ASSUME we look at whats sitting in the book and trade with it. When 70% of the time I trade against it.
> 
> http://tremblinghandtrader.typepad.com/SPI @ 3300.avi
> 
> Warning its a big file, 18 meg! its from 4:00 to 4:30 and replayed at 6 times actual speed. best to right click the link and save rather than stream it.




Thanks for the Video, I can see exactly what MRC was referring to.

cheers


----------



## Cartman

Trembling Hand said:


> No waiting. in this example I'm talking about the unique action of the SPI after cash close but it happens to some degree during cash hours as well just not so violently nor as quick. It is literally a 5 second trade. Hit whatever is in front of the big bid/offer, move your limit exit right behind or on top of the big order. Let the Bigger Boyz take you out as they chew the volume. It really is as rapid as a blink. A true scalp for a a punch drunk nutter on ICE like myself.
> 
> I will try and find an example and do another vid tomorrow before I p!ss off to Japa's for a couple of weeks.





ok gotcha --- thanks for that  ---


----------



## tradez

Trembling Hand said:


> No waiting. in this example I'm talking about the unique action of the SPI after cash close but it happens to some degree during cash hours as well just not so violently nor as quick. It is literally a 5 second trade. Hit whatever is in front of the big bid/offer, move your limit exit right behind or on top of the big order. Let the Bigger Boyz take you out as they chew the volume. It really is as rapid as a blink. A true scalp for a a punch drunk nutter on ICE like myself.
> 
> I will try and find an example and do another vid tomorrow before I p!ss off to Japa's for a couple of weeks.




TH - When you hit whats in front of the big bid are you using a market order?  I assume when dealing with these lighting fast trades that entering with a limit order would cause too many misses?


----------



## Trembling Hand

Ok remembered a good one even after all this fine Red. 

From Thursday 22nd. We have the normal thick order book (not illiquid like someone is trying to tell us ) of after 4:10 close, we have just pushed down from a failed test of the high, and then back up into the middle of the range of the last 10 min.

Then we get a 50 lot bid placed 3 levels down at 3452. time 4:17:40

Bang, 4:17:50 it plus the 30 lots in front of it get taken out.

Then at 4:18:10 a BIG 150 lot sell gets place on the last Ask level 3455 (5 points up) with a  70 lot at the first bid (which is not a valid setup for this trade)

Guess which one gets smashed?

Vid here,
http://tremblinghandtrader.typepad.com/Spi vol flicks.avi



tradez said:


> TH - When you hit whats in front of the big bid are you using a market order?  I assume when dealing with these lighting fast trades that entering with a limit order would cause too many misses?




Tradez, that's why 70% of all futures volume throughout the world gets done on a TT DOM or rip off like in these vids (manual executions). You don't really need to choose between Limit or at market. You use hot keys and mouse clicks at price levels. At market orders are no good for scalping.


----------



## BentRod

> Then at 4:18:10 a BIG 150 lot sell gets place on the last Ask level 3455 (5 points up) with a 70 lot at the first bid (which is not a valid setup for this trade)
> 
> Guess which one gets smashed?




So the guy offering 150 ended up pulling offer right?


----------



## Trembling Hand

BentRod said:


> So the guy offering 150 ended up pulling offer right?




Nah he got hit. the replay sim dosn't show all the ticks thats why it didn't show up on the ticker.

What happens in the after cash close the Boyz close out big positions put on during the day and are looking for vol. I guess the ones who are trapped need to get it while its there. While the ones on the other side are "naming their price".

Mr C can probably add more to what these Big swinging Dicks are up to. I just know to hit it before some other punter does. :ak47::bigun2:


----------



## BentRod

> I just know to hit it before some other punter does




Ah so that was you that hit the 21 that were leaning on the 157


----------



## Trembling Hand

BentRod said:


> Ah so that was you that hit the 21 that were leaning on the 157



 Actually I was one of the tossers who was 1 second to slow on that one (Hit out a 5 lot at 3454 no fill, pulled). I think I was looking at the 70 lot bid and didn't see the bigger one. Thats why I remembered it so quickly. Another one that got away.


----------



## MRC & Co

Cartman said:


> eg -- in mirc's example --- if there were a crapload of bids sitting there, he was happy to load up, but u r saying most of the time u will go the other way yes? ---
> 
> just interested in what makes u choose the other direction if u dont wait for a coupla decent hits at the sitting orders ------




This is the thing with the DOM Cartman, it is SO discretionary.  In this case, frontrunning the size, was great because it was HUGE size, defending a HUGE level, and they were upticking so making a big statement.  It wasn't just a 100 lot that randomly appeared in the book after cash close.  

Personally, I don't like the last 30 mins very much, except for 4:10pm (final auction calculation and then everyone coming out of the woodwork to quickly do their lots once cash is closed) and 4:29pm, when you get sharp reversals back to 'fair value' if someone has done too much buying or selling relative to other gobal index movement since 4:10pm closing auction price.  Usually, you will get big guys come in to slam it back in line and if they still can't do it, it will usually just gap back towards fair value once night SPI opens.

But yes, as TH says, a 150 lot 5 levels away, will often just get GULPED up in a second.  Like is stated above, the guy named his price, someone else liked it, and BANG, it's all over.  Happens many times in the close period.  It's only if that large order doesn't get filled, and he started bringing his large lot down the ask, still didn't get clipped and then starts going to market, that you will get a FORAY of frontrunning (everyong hitting the bid), then a few ticks later on down, BANG and the 150 lot will disappear.  What happened?  The first itchy trigger covered and all the other guys did the same, within a second, everyone banked their few ticks on how many contracts they had and used him as their cover.  Occassionally, if his smart, he will pull the 150 lot and the traders will be what is called 'beached', whereby they have nobody to cover into and have to manage their trade.  You will then get other traders who were not in, start hitting the asks, to get everyone else out (hitting the ask as they are covering, pushing price up), the smart guy with the big lot, will then put it back in, at a higher price.


----------



## julius

Just thought I'd post my own educational video...

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=oRpej75hONw

Note keyboard maneuver at 0:49


----------



## Cartman

MRC & Co said:


> This is the thing with the DOM Cartman, it is SO discretionary.  In this case, frontrunning the size, was great because it was HUGE size, defending a HUGE level, and they were upticking so making a big statement.  It wasn't just a 100 lot that randomly appeared in the book after cash close.
> 
> Personally, I don't like the last 30 mins very much, except for 4:10pm (final auction calculation and then everyone coming out of the woodwork to quickly do their lots once cash is closed) and 4:29pm, when you get sharp reversals back to 'fair value' if someone has done too much buying or selling relative to other gobal index movement since 4:10pm closing auction price.  Usually, you will get big guys come in to slam it back in line and if they still can't do it, it will usually just gap back towards fair value once night SPI opens.
> 
> But yes, as TH says, a 150 lot 5 levels away, will often just get GULPED up in a second.  Like is stated above, the guy named his price, someone else liked it, and BANG, it's all over.  Happens many times in the close period.  It's only if that large order doesn't get filled, and he started bringing his large lot down the ask, still didn't get clipped and then starts going to market, that you will get a FORAY of frontrunning (everyong hitting the bid), then a few ticks later on down, BANG and the 150 lot will disappear.  What happened?  The first itchy trigger covered and all the other guys did the same, within a second, everyone banked their few ticks on how many contracts they had and used him as their cover.  Occassionally, if his smart, he will pull the 150 lot and the traders will be what is called 'beached', whereby they have nobody to cover into and have to manage their trade.  You will then get other traders who were not in, start hitting the asks, to get everyone else out (hitting the ask as they are covering, pushing price up), the smart guy with the big lot, will then put it back in, at a higher price.




thanks Mirc    good description ----- its interesting that the spike plays im still testing on FX seem to fit the same scenario u r descibing --- only dif is FX spikes can go a long long  way b4 reversing and the volume can be pretty crazy so getting the entry right is a bit tricky ----- 

ps re the 'beached' traders ---- getting on the wrong side of sharp moves must be pretty nasty if theyve taken large positions ---- i know TH sets minimum stops on his trades, but how do these big punters 'manage' their positions from what u see ---- do they just take the medicine and fold it at the next best price available, or hedge a reverse position until the market goes their way?


----------



## MRC & Co

Cartman said:


> do they just take the medicine and fold it at the next best price available




Yep.  If some size pops up, they will clip it to get out.  If not, they will just have to hit market and take their medicine.


----------



## Cartman

MRC & Co said:


> Yep.  If some size pops up, they will clip it to get out.  If not, they will just have to hit market and take their medicine.




out of interest Mirc ---- if these big players are pumping big volume into the market around the close, can we assume they have been pumping smaller amounts in during the day to set a position perhaps ?? -----  so even if they get out gunned at the close they prob still ended up ok 4 the day ??

in yr opinion is it possible to 'read' the earlier days action with any clarity to give an indication of how the close might pan out?? ----- ie  can we  'spot' the big boyz footprints during the day with any consistency from what u have seen?? ---- any hints how to spot what theyre up to


----------



## barney

Cartman said:


> out of interest Mirc ---- if these big players are pumping big volume into the market around the close, can we assume they have been pumping smaller amounts in during the day to set a position




Interested in this kind of stuff myself and have a few questions MRC or others might help with ...... 

Is there a finite number of futures contracts up for trade on any given day? (ie are there limits/restrictions other than the size of your wallet as to how many contracts can be traded daily?) ..... 

If we get an ultra high volume day ..... does this indicate more contracts in the market, or simply the same players "churning" the market to try and increase their percentage return?  

Do most big players/instos close out their trades during the high volume morning and afternoon sessions? ie Are there any statistics as to how many big players hold positions o/night or longer time frames, and how many just trade each session then "get out" till tomorrow so to speak? .....  

Hope those questions make some sense  ...... Is there anywhere we can get info about how the larger traders "approach" the market ..... I think it would be of great value to help us small players understand the mechanics of it all ......  Cheers.


----------



## Joolean

barney said:


> Is there a finite number of futures contracts up for trade on any given day? (ie are there limits/restrictions other than the size of your wallet as to how many contracts can be traded daily?) .....



I don't know but I wouldn't think so as it's simply a contract between two parties, unlike shares that are finite.



barney said:


> If we get an ultra high volume day ..... does this indicate more contracts in the market, or simply the same players "churning" the market to try and increase their percentage return?



To know this, you could look at the open interest figures. This tells you how many contracts are currently open at the end of each day.
http://www.investopedia.com/terms/o/openinterest.asp



barney said:


> Do most big players/instos close out their trades during the high volume morning and afternoon sessions? ie Are there any statistics as to how many big players hold positions o/night or longer time frames, and how many just trade each session then "get out" till tomorrow so to speak? .....



The full timers could better answer the big boys behaviour but you might be able to garner something from the open interest again. Open interest might range between 200 and 300 thousand contracts whereas volume on each day might average only 20-30 thousand contracts. Meaning that the volume traded on any day is only about 10% of the contracts being held.



barney said:


> Hope those questions make some sense  ...... Is there anywhere we can get info about how the larger traders "approach" the market ..... I think it would be of great value to help us small players understand the mechanics of it all ......  Cheers.



The following article gives an example of how a large order might be worked.
http://alphatrends.blogspot.com/2007/11/institutional-trading-benchmark.html
and this one on market makers, although as I was told, there are no market makers on the spi futures. I found it helpful nonetheless.
http://www.making-bread.co.uk/how-the-stock-markets-work.htm

Hope that helps.


----------



## acouch

morning all
todays road map
have a great day and take care
ac


----------



## Joolean

Totally off topic, but check the Sydney Morning Herald t/h. That google maps guy on the dunny pic you posted on your web site is front page.

http://www.smh.com.au/


----------



## MS+Tradesim

Joolean said:


> Totally off topic, but check the Sydney Morning Herald t/h. That google maps guy on the dunny pic you posted on your web site is front page.
> 
> http://www.smh.com.au/




Classic!


----------



## pilbara

Cartman said:


> if these big players are pumping big volume into the market around the close, can we assume they have been pumping smaller amounts in during the day to set a position perhaps ??



after the equity market closes there is a need for institutional investors to cover equity positions they now must hold overnight, and that is not fully revealed by futures trading during the day.


----------



## acouch

good morning all
today road map
have a great day and good trades
ac


----------



## acouch

evening all,
just how perfect is this road map

LIS. 3433..lod 3431..hon ..3522..road map 3522..
never ceases to amaze me.
have a great evening..
ac


----------



## nat

Hi acouch ,you have certanily got it down to a fine art . Am finding my own levels which correspond with a few of yours but dont have a lis line to define long or short .

Am about to sell a house so will have funds to get amibroker and a real spi trading setup so might b able to chart better then the cfd charts and save stuff.  

have a good weekend ,Nathan


----------



## Joolean

For you full timers,

can you give some insight on any correlations (if there are any) between the spi and other index's/equities you might look at, either eod or intraday, that would actually impact your trading and how?
I.e. Are there any divergences you keep an eye on? Where certain markets closed overnight? Volume levels etc. I've seen mention of other index's from time to time but can't remember any specifics.

I'd like to focus my attention as much as possible on things that actually have an impact on the spi. I have eod futures for several markets but would buy more intraday data for certain index's if they're worth looking at.

I'm only simulation day trading and in the learning process just trying to look at as much information as I can each time to base decisions on. It's great fun while I'm not losing real money. 

Cheers,
Julian.


----------



## acouch

good morning all,
Monday's road map
have a great weekend and take care
ac


----------



## James Austin

nice work AC.

could you please give an example as to how "you" use LIS.

i am thinking something like a 10pnt stop on other side of LIS, 
entry at 10pnts within LIS or as close as possible, 
where is profit take?

any stats on LIS? success, failure rates of the indicator?


----------



## acouch

James Austin said:


> nice work AC.
> 
> could you please give an example as to how "you" use LIS.
> 
> i am thinking something like a 10pnt stop on other side of LIS,
> entry at 10pnts within LIS or as close as possible,
> where is profit take?
> 
> any stats on LIS? success, failure rates of the indicator?




morning james,
i find it it drops,or goes above LIS 10 points  it will want to test the next no..
these nos are all support and resistance, and are all strong nos..once hit they will try and hold price..unless in a very strong trend....
profit taking would be taken at these nos....and on a retest you can re enter with the trend once again..
no stats on LIS i am afraid..i am not that advanced, i will leave to you guys that are a lot smarter than me in that field..

i have also noticed..that it can test one/ two nos above/below lis..then reverse the trend...
have a great day
ac


----------



## MRC & Co

Cartman, every trader has his own style.  None really build positions throughout the day, unless they are trying to ride a trend and have conviction that the day will trend.  But that is rare.  They are usually in and out all day long and some don't even trade the post cash period.  

It's completely discretionary, no way I have found of really knowing what the close will do.  

Barney, yeh, you may want to check out OI (Open Interest) as to how many positions are closed before the days end.  Other than that, a high volume day usually means some institutions are in there doing some longer-term business, which will bring the traders out of the woodwork, and they will try do a lot of round trips and put on some more size, to take more winnings out of it.  So they sort of go hand in hand.  A day where it is dead and no institution is in sight, you just get caught in cat and mouse games, so it's better to limit your trading on those days.  You end up just doing round trips for little reward.  Risk:reward becomes poor IMO.

Joolean, for trading SPI, you probably need to be watching what the leading stocks are doing, I also keep up a chart of the entire cash index, the Nikkei, Hang Seng, and S&P.  Sometimes you can find correlations, like SPI may slightly lag Nikkei for a while, other times, when other markets go, SPI will take a while to catch on, but lately, the SPI has actually been leading, pre-empting where Asia will go, or simply going the other direction (like the day when BNB went into admin), which can make it even trickier.  Like anything, sometimes it works, sometimes it doesn't and knowing and applying the difference is the key.  Having these charts up can sometimes just add to your conviction and other times, it can completely rape you when the SPI wants to do it's own thing.

Again, just my opinions and observations.


----------



## James Austin

LIS worked well this morning AC.

some questions please:

if pre-open price is above LIS, is *the expectation* that LIS "may" act as support today?


if pre-open price is below LIS, is *the expectation* that LIS "may" act as resistance today?


assuming long around 431, is the first exit signal today (Mon 2/2) 3453?; as noted on saturdays chart.


----------



## acouch

James Austin said:


> LIS worked well this morning AC.
> 
> some questions please:
> 
> if pre-open price is above LIS, is *the expectation* that LIS "may" act as support today?
> 
> 
> if pre-open price is below LIS, is *the expectation* that LIS "may" act as resistance today?
> 
> 
> assuming long around 431, is the first exit signal today (Mon 2/2) 3453?; as noted on saturdays chart.




Yes James,

that is correct, after the exit of 53..price went to 62..but rolled over to take the 38..then once again rallied up to the 53.. where it staggered again..till it broke the 62, and now it has came back down again and tested the 54..before looking for upside..the 53 has been great support/resistance today
ac


----------



## James Austin

thanks AC  
shall keep an eye on your S&R road-maps and LIS, see if i can trade them!
James


----------



## AlterEgo

acouch said:


> Yes James,
> 
> that is correct, after the exit of 53..price went to 62..but rolled over to take the 38..then once again rallied up to the 53.. where it staggered again..till it broke the 62, and now it has came back down again and tested the 54..before looking for upside..the 53 has been great support/resistance today
> ac




acouch,

What is LIS? And how is it calculated?


thanks


----------



## acouch

AlterEgo said:


> acouch,
> 
> What is LIS? And how is it calculated?
> 
> 
> thanks




Hello alterego..



LIS stands for line in sand..it basically tells you the trend for that day..above is for longs, below is for shorts..
how it is calculated..that i dont know how to explain..as i have been trading with pitchforks for a long long time..and the road map is my setup..and i just know every morning..where it goes..and from there comes the support/resistance nos....
but if you use pitchforks you will find how often they fall into fib nos..
sorry i cant explain it any better,teaching isnt one of my best traits..
ac


----------



## jersey10

From what i can gather a 1% interest rate cut has been priced in.  Is anyone going to have a specific trading strategy for tomorrow's interest rate announcement? What strategy are traders going to employ? Is it a viable opportunity to make a good profit or is it a lottery? How is the SPI likely to respond to an interest rate cut more or less than 1%?


----------



## acouch

good morning all,
this is yesterday's road map for you to have
a look at..just before close..
worked well once again
ac


----------



## acouch

good morning all
today's road map
have a great day, and good trades
ac


----------



## James Austin

nice AC, an easy 20pnts

on this occassion your LIS matched dilernias R44 support = increased confidence to take the trade

james


----------



## acouch

James Austin said:


> nice AC, an easy 20pnts
> 
> on this occassion your LIS matched dilernias R44 support = increased confidence to take the trade
> 
> james




well done james
ac


----------



## Bronte

Also:*'Pivot Point'*
Nice one guys.
Bronte


----------



## Frank D

*SPI Weekly and 5-day pattern*

*SPI PLAY*:- "SPI moves into 3488 and the Spiral top, 
but reverses down and moves back into 3457 (5-day 50% level).
The trend guide would be then based on this level(3457) for any 
higher moves on Tuesday.

Note:- If this pattern plays out then the SPI could continue higher towards 3533.

Therefore my ideal pattern would be to trade longs upwards and 
exit, and then look for any patterns from 14:30 onwards if the SPI is going 
to continue higher"

Reserve bank expected cut in rates of 1% today around 14:30, therefore the market could be flat until then"

I'm factoring higher prices today, but because it's below the Weekly 
50% levels, I think it's going to go flat until rate news around 14:30,
 with potential move upwards towards 3512 and as high as 3533.

*Note:- *if it reverses down from the Weekly 50% level and begins 
trading below 3457, then it's a different ball game.


----------



## James Austin

jersey10 said:


> From what i can gather a 1% interest rate cut has been priced in.  Is anyone going to have a specific trading strategy for tomorrow's interest rate announcement? What strategy are traders going to employ? Is it a viable opportunity to make a good profit or is it a lottery? How is the SPI likely to respond to an interest rate cut more or less than 1%?




what's that saying?,
buy the rumour (seems to be playing out), 
sell the fact (still to see)


----------



## AlterEgo

acouch said:


> Hello alterego..
> 
> 
> 
> LIS stands for line in sand..it basically tells you the trend for that day..above is for longs, below is for shorts..
> how it is calculated..that i dont know how to explain..as i have been trading with pitchforks for a long long time..and the road map is my setup..and i just know every morning..where it goes..and from there comes the support/resistance nos....
> but if you use pitchforks you will find how often they fall into fib nos..
> sorry i cant explain it any better,teaching isnt one of my best traits..
> ac




Ok, thanks AC.


----------



## Bronte

*3537* High.
Bronte


----------



## James Austin

Frank D said:


> Note:- If this pattern plays out then the SPI could continue higher towards 3533.
> 
> . . .  with potential move upwards towards 3512 and as high as 3533.





beautiful!
like clockwork today.


----------



## Frank D

SPI moved quicker than expected to 3533…

3533 is a target in this 5-day pattern, and can become random 
resistance during the day, which can result in a reversal of 20-44 points. 
(if lucky)

But a break above and price could end up moving towards Tuesday’s highs 
@ 3565, especially after 3pm.

I've taken a short here and I've already partial exit and placed dollar stops 
for breakeven trade, as i'm not expecting too much downside.

If lucky can make a little of any consolidation around these tops.

My set-up for the day has already played out, so going for the smaller movements of 10-20points


----------



## Bronte

Bronte said:


> *3537* High.
> Bronte



Only loss so far was selling 3512
I am also short...for now.
Bronte


----------



## Bronte

This mornings SPI chart:
*3549 / 3551 High*
Bronte


----------



## Frank D

SPI has reversed down 44 points, which often can see more buying 
appearing off its lows and back towards the highs.

So far the previous levels @ 3552 (current highs) and current swing lows 
@ 3503 are  playing their part over lunch.

But i've gott a feeling that a lot of this price action today is happening 
too quickly, and we've got the same price action as last week, 
 a double range R44 spiral top, fake breakout which often leads to a 
87 point reversal.

I'd be extremely interested in seeing how the market reacts after the 
rate news comes out, because if this follows the down move into 3464, it 
will begin trading below the 5-day 50% level...


----------



## Frank D

I'm bearish on the SPI and the price action over the past 2-days fits in 
with my view of lower prices in FEB....

Now it's up to US markets.....


----------



## Joolean

MRC & Co said:


> Joolean, for trading SPI, you probably need to be watching what the leading stocks are doing, I also keep up a chart of the entire cash index, the Nikkei, Hang Seng, and S&P.  Sometimes you can find correlations, like SPI may slightly lag Nikkei for a while, other times, when other markets go, SPI will take a while to catch on, but lately, the SPI has actually been leading, pre-empting where Asia will go, or simply going the other direction (like the day when BNB went into admin), which can make it even trickier.  Like anything, sometimes it works, sometimes it doesn't and knowing and applying the difference is the key.  Having these charts up can sometimes just add to your conviction and other times, it can completely rape you when the SPI wants to do it's own thing.
> 
> Again, just my opinions and observations.




Thanks MRC. I figured it might be something like that. Guess I'll just pick up a feel on these things after time. I'll start following the minor Aussie indexes and main stocks first I think.


----------



## acouch

try again
ac


----------



## Joolean

Hi ac and others,

with your levels, do you ever take into account the velocity with which price is heading towards them in accounting for whether they might whip through them a distance before coming back?

I haven't been trading long enough to make any educated assessments on this, but seeing your chart above ac jogged my memory of similar occasions where price has gone all the way up in the morning and then all the way down in the afternoon, but accelerated south quickly near the end and whipped through my mp level by 5+ points before retracing back to it. Always a tad scary going long in the face of such rapid decline.

If price comes down gradually, is it more likely to bounce very close to a level than if it comes down rapidly?
Is this something any of you notice and might adjust entries based on it?


----------



## MRC & Co

Jersey, yes, definately possible to trade news.  

But you need quick news feed and execution (so maybe not possible doing it through retail means, unsure if TH trades news and by which method).

As for how you will trade it, that's upto you.  If it's better than expected, but price has already rallied hard that day (before the announcement), is it already priced in and will you get long as soon as the announcement is made?.  Things like this you have to weigh up, and trade accordingly.  But always better to approach it with a plan, and complete discretion of how you will manage that plan once you actually see the price action unfold in the moments after the announcement.



Who watched DOM in the afternoon session yesterday?  EXACTLY what TH and I were talking about in the thread previously.  3445 (think it was), was defended by a HUGE iceberg (refilling once it was hit over and over again). Other big lots started jumping infront and upticking price, trend reversal?  I think so.  Came back numerous times in the subsequent half an hour or so to test it, but just could not come close to breaking the level.  Price then rallied away for quite some time.  

After cash close, 4:10-4:30pm, huge lots appeared a few ticks away from the current price action, and BAM, were demolished in a second, in the same manner as TH showed in his video.


----------



## acouch

Joolean said:


> Hi ac and others,
> 
> with your levels, do you ever take into account the velocity with which price is heading towards them in accounting for whether they might whip through them a distance before coming back?
> 
> I haven't been trading long enough to make any educated assessments on this, but seeing your chart above ac jogged my memory of similar occasions where price has gone all the way up in the morning and then all the way down in the afternoon, but accelerated south quickly near the end and whipped through my mp level by 5+ points before retracing back to it. Always a tad scary going long in the face of such rapid decline.
> 
> If price comes down gradually, is it more likely to bounce very close to a level than if it comes down rapidly?
> Is this something any of you notice and might adjust entries based on it?



i
I was watching this chart myself joolean,
and as it was up around the 3545 mark. i thought to myself..this is a one sided chimney
and you cant have a one sided chimney..
so it was inevitable that it was heading down..to balance price..
which it did..and always does..
now price is below LIS longs are not in the picture..

i just trade on what i see, but,as you can see by the chart it tested the support levels on the way down..till the 3480..then the boys where out to play..
have a great evening..
ac


----------



## jersey10

MRC & Co said:


> After cash close, 4:10-4:30pm, huge lots appeared a few ticks away from the current price action, and BAM, were demolished in a second, in the same manner as TH showed in his video.




Is this what you call a spoof?


----------



## MRC & Co

jersey10 said:


> Is this what you call a spoof?




No, in the video, the size actually gets clipped (filled).

A spoof is size that is shown, but then disappears without being filled.  Sometimes, it will get hit with 1 or 2 contracts and then disappear, while most times, it won't even get hit at all.


----------



## acouch

good morning all,
today's road map
have a great day, and good trades
ac


----------



## James Austin

acouch said:


> Hello alterego..
> 
> but if you use pitchforks you will find how often they fall into fib nos..




AC,
that's APF on a 10min, 24hr SPI chart?
thanks
James


----------



## acouch

James Austin said:


> AC,
> that's APF on a 10min, 24hr SPI chart?
> thanks
> James




yes james.
ac


----------



## mikeg

Hi accouch,

Could you tell me what the yellow number 3458 and the blue 3442 on the right side numbers of the road map signify. Thanks


----------



## acouch

mikeg said:


> Hi accouch,
> 
> Could you tell me what the yellow number 3458 and the blue 3442 on the right side numbers of the road map signify. Thanks




morning mikeg,
i am not at home atm..but i can tell you they are ema's..
and i always have a 34 on my charts..and that is the green/red depends on trend  sandwich in between...from memory..the yellow is probably a 20, and the blue a 50
hope the trading is going wel for you today,
ac


----------



## jersey10

MRC & Co said:


> Who watched DOM in the afternoon session yesterday?  EXACTLY what TH and I were talking about in the thread previously.  3445 (think it was), was defended by a HUGE iceberg (refilling once it was hit over and over again). Other big lots started jumping infront and upticking price, trend reversal?  I think so.  Came back numerous times in the subsequent half an hour or so to test it, but just could not come close to breaking the level.  Price then rallied away for quite some time.
> 
> After cash close, 4:10-4:30pm, huge lots appeared a few ticks away from the current price action, and BAM, were demolished in a second, in the same manner as TH showed in his video.




i think same thing has just happenend in the last half hour. Big lots at about 3388??


----------



## MRC & Co

jersey10 said:


> i think same thing has just happenend in the last half hour. Big lots at about 3388??




Yeh, but that was just one big lot.  Not really that formidable in the close.

BUT, that exact same lot, was in the same position earlier in the afternooon, and acted as support.  You can see on the charts price bounced off it and didn't come to retest it until the end of the day.


----------



## skyQuake

But it was mostly spoofers today.


----------



## MRC & Co

skyQuake said:


> But it was mostly spoofers today.




lol, always is!  

But that level at 3388 (think it was there), and the tick it bounced off at the pivot low before that, both were HUGE support levels.  Easy frontrunning (unfortunately, I missed the first).  

In the close today, practically all size was real and got SMASHED!!!!!


----------



## acouch

good morning all
today's road map
have a great day, and good trades
ac


----------



## James Austin

seems to be working AC.
your S&R often intersect frank's, but not always the same.


----------



## Frank D

*SPI 5-day patterns and filters*

My trend guide today was 3413 with a view that below price was 
pushing down into support around 3360.

Along with the expectation that price 'could' swing UP towards 3442 
today or tomorrow.

But the previous lows @ 3386 are now capping the market from rising, and 
at this stage i'm struggling to see how price is going to kick upwards.

It should have already cleared 3385 and moving higher by now on the back of resource stocks.

If it clears 3394 then I can sit back as I think more buying will come 
in.

*If it breaks 3360 then it's part of my overall view of going lower this
week and next week.*


----------



## Frank D

So far so good.

As per Premium Report this morning, looking for a continuation upwards to at 
least 3431 in afteroon trading. (3447 by tomorrow)

However, as per previous report 3394 is going to let me know whether 
it's going to go higher.

Personally I don't want to see 3394 stall and begin to reverse back
down.


----------



## mikeg

Hi Frank,

If you have a trade going, and have a specific target in mind, do you hold the trade overnight, and if so how would you protect it.


----------



## Frank D

Mike,

Very rarely do I hold positions overnight on the SPI.

I prefer to move into trading the S&P, as I find the patterns much 
more robust and less to worry about (spread and depth), and my levels 
often provide good entry points.

I also prefer to hold forex positions longer than normal.

I think you could probably limit holding positions on the SPI to about 
2-3 times per month for the big moves.  But they need to be coming 
down from monthly 50% levels:- thrust patterns or from Lower 
monthly support levels:- rotating back towards midpoints. 

This *SPI trade today* is a perfect example, my view is for the market 
to continue down towards the February's lows over the next 2 weeks, but
 I also knew there was a window of opportunity to go long today up into 
3394. Once it started to fail @ 3394 I took profits at 3391 and moved
 to the sidelines.

Even though my view is for lower prices this month and 3394 was a 
random resistance zone, I didn't short trade 3394 because I need price to be 
coming down from an 44 point high, so my view was to continue to trade up.

Tomorrow is another day but the trend still remains down, and could 
reach the Weekly lows @ 3299, which is the market path for price to
 follow this week.


----------



## mikeg

Thanks Frank,

I can see that I still have a lot of learning to do. In the past I have tried to stay in overnight to catch some of the bigger moves, but without success. I tried using wider stops, but all that did was put a bigger hole in my bank account.

Enjoy reading your posts, they give a lot of food for thought. Please keep them coming.


----------



## acouch

good morning all,
there is no point posting a road map for today,
as it is the same as yesterday's..probably 1 point difference..
so for those that follow..checkout yesterdays.
have a good day, and good trades
ac


----------



## Frank D

Mike g,

If you were going to hold positions overnight then today is the day I would hold, and i'm holding.

There is no guarantee that the market is going to reverse down, but I 
put this in the Premium report 4 days ago…..2nd Feb

What we also notice is that, during the down trend  and which is often the
 case, price needs to be trading below the 
5-day 50% level... But also a spiral top.

Therefore price needs to break the 5-day 50% level but then have an 
87 point upswing over a couple of days (or higher open), so that the
 trend continues down.

I have the view of lower prices this month, but we still need to 
see confirming patterns to play out before the trend moves lower.

Therefore you would be short trading down from 3451 today  (running 
stops above the 5-day 50% level 3455) 

We broke the 5-day 50% level two days ago, and yesterday and today's higher open completed the R87 swing.

We now have an R87 spiral top along with the rejection of the 5-day 50% level.

With the expectation price is heading down….

But that’s going to depend on US markets and obviously what happens 
today.

Today's price action completed the move  from yesterday, and today's 
short and set-up aligns with my overall view of Price heading down
 into February's lows, confirmed with a higher probability pattern....

now let's see how we go ( hold 1 lot overnight), hopefully it will be down around the Weekly lows by sycom.

or maybe Not, but nothing to lose.


----------



## Frank D

*SPI Weekly and 5-day pattern*

44 points down completed partial exit around these lows...

Hopefully the SPI doesn't swing up off these lows and head back towards today's highs, as it aligns with Thursday's Daily highs.


----------



## mikeg

Hi Frank,

Just got home, so missed all the moves so far today.

One of my main problems is knowing when to get into trades. Take for example where you said that you would be short from 3451. Looking at your charts and taking the 87 point spiral into consideration i would have be looking to go short at 3433, which was 87 points from the recent low and also a double top on the open, then would have been stopped out as it kept rising.

Now the market is rising back up to the morning high, which seems to be a show of strengh, or just a double top before the fall.


----------



## Frank D

Mike,

87 points was the day session (3451) not the 24 hour session…

*This is my report for this morning….*

US markets rise upwards and this put the SPI moving up 
off yesterday's 
lows and looking to complete the move up into an R87 high @ 3451.

I'm still bearish on the market and as pointed out this week, we need to
 see a 87 point rise upwards and then trade the move down from the
 87 spiral point high using the 5-day 50% level as the trend guide.


*But we still don't know when that R87 high is going to 
complete.

Therefore I still have to trade the levels in the 5-day pattern*

Based on the higher open and today's upper channel, i'm favouring 
short trading down from 3431 to complete the gap @ 3408 and exit.

*There are two possibilities occuring here....*

1. SPI can continue down 44 points, but then rise upwards late in the day
 to complete the R87 top. This is because price is still rising up 
from yesterday's R87 low.

*I've done 3 trades today....*

Shorted the open and closed the gap from 3430 and exit 3410.

If the SPI moved down 44 points I would have switched to longs and 
traded up towards 3451, as per morning report.

that didn't happen so didn't trade longs.

2nd short was the top partial exit on the r44 lows, but i'm still holding from 3450

3rd short and last short is a retest of 3431 :- with the expectation price is going to continue down.

short 3433 partial exit 3423 + 10  (stops now 3438)

If stopped out @ 3438 I won't trade this level again.

My open position still remains 3450 (breakeven stops), because if it
 breaks 3431 after 3pm it's going back to the highs.

My exit on this trade from @ 3433 will be another 44 points down.

and still holding from 3450.


----------



## mikeg

Frank,

Did not know that you don't use the night session in your calculations.
Some great trading today. Good to see someone knows what they are doing.


----------



## Frank D

SPI hits 3441 and begins to come down again from the R22 high.

I wasn't going to trade again today, but if it lines up with my view i hit it.

short 3436 partial exit 3429 + 7 (trailing stops now 3442 -6)

looking for 44 point reversal down.

and still holding from 3450.

Either the trade keeps going or it doesn't *but i'm not interested in
 trading longs today, simply because of the levels in the 5-day pattern 
and the direction of the spiral points.*

I only normally trade if it aligns with my morning report, and manage the trade accordingly.


----------



## acouch

afternoon all
road map eod..
ac


----------



## acouch

good morning all,
this is how the road map closed out on sycom..for those interested
ac


----------



## acouch

good morning all
Monday's road map
have a great weekend and take care
ac


----------



## Bronte

A BIG move upwards on Friday night:
Looking forward to tomorrow......
Dow up +218 points
Sycom 3500 close
3511 High
Bronte


----------



## James Austin

MS+Tradesim said:


> Forward testing a reversal idea. Two conditions for entry, one for exit. Long/short is taken on the indicated bar at price of the previous low for a short or previous high for a long (except for the daily opening bar where I just entered near the open). That's not the entry condition though, just the entry price.  Found slippage to be non-existent today (no idea why) so entries have been spot on - beginner's luck probably.




any updates MS?

is the effortless, consistently profitable intraday index system still paying dividends, . . . . so to speak!?

not trying to be smart, i'd be happy for you if the above is true.

james


----------



## Bronte

Bronte said:


> A BIG move upwards on Friday night:
> Looking forward to tomorrow......
> Dow up +218 points
> Sycom 3500 close
> *3511 High*
> Bronte



Nice how Sycom picked this mornings: 3511 High.
Bronte


----------



## acouch

Bronte said:


> Nice how Sycom picked this mornings: 3511 High.
> Bronte





lod 3459..looks in
over lis..look for higher nos..
something to note..that the third of feb high was 3551..
rolls over there we will once again have a lower dble top..never
a good look.
good trades
ac


----------



## MS+Tradesim

James Austin said:


> any updates MS?
> 
> is the effortless, consistently profitable intraday index system still paying dividends, . . . . so to speak!?
> 
> not trying to be smart, i'd be happy for you if the above is true.
> 
> james




Hi James,

Yes. It  works very well. I've had to make a decision though. Either I trade the SPI during the day or trade FX at night but I can't do both and keep my life balanced - not fair to my wife who is more important than everything else. So for the moment I'm committed to FX as that suits our lives better. 

As I'm using exactly the same system on FX, I don't want to disclose it though - if that's going to be the next question. 

Just for the record, here's the chart from the last time I looked at it on 4/2.


----------



## James Austin

MS+Tradesim said:


> Hi James,
> 
> As I'm using exactly the same system on FX, I don't want to disclose it though - if that's going to be the next question.





No it wasnt. But am happy to listen if you want to share in the future.

I'm happy with the system I use, it also works well. Although, a mix of discretionary/mechanical.


** it's fine to be protective of a system, many people are. It is interesting though, that few will be able to replicate the results of your system even if you spell it out to them 100 times. We humans struggle to follow rules, and even if we could do that, it's still too much work.

Also, 
does the system you use become a self-fulfilling prophecy when more people use it!? Or does this simply make getting filled more difficult!?

. . . . just thinking out loud


----------



## MS+Tradesim

James Austin said:


> ** it's fine to be protective of a system, many people are. It is interesting though, that few will be able to replicate the results of your system even if you spell it out to them 100 times. We humans struggle to follow rules.




This is true. But given the amount of time and thought that I expend creating and testing mechanical systems, I just like to keep my cards close. I'm not that great at writing code so it would be painful to lose a hard-won edge.



> Also,
> does the system you use become a self-fulfilling prophecy when more people use it!? Or does this simply make getting filled more difficult!?
> 
> just thinking out loud




I suspect it would be an issue of getting worse fills if more people were trading the same signals. I've never been in a position of using something that I know a lot of other people use, so I don't know about any self-fulfilling possibilities.


----------



## acouch

good morning all,
as you can see, road map same as yesterday..
have a great day, and good trades
ac


----------



## acouch

updated chart of the road map ,it is from
midnight last night..
ac


----------



## acouch

good morning all
today's road map
have a great day, and good trades
ac


----------



## acouch

good morning all
todays road map
have a great day, and good trades
ac


----------



## acouch

good morning all
today's road map
have a great day, and good trades
ac


----------



## acouch

good morning all
Monday's road map
have a great weekend and take care
ac


----------



## Bobby

Well this is kinda nice of you ACOUCH to keep throwing up your road map but how about throwing up some of your own trades ?


----------



## Wysiwyg

Bobby said:


> Well this is kinda nice of you ACOUCH to keep throwing up your road map but how about throwing up some of your own trades ?




I wanted to type that the road map is confusing because it does not take you to where you want to go.Although trying to decipher the (map  ) it still leaves me nonethewiser.


----------



## acouch

Bobby said:


> Well this is kinda nice of you ACOUCH to keep throwing up your road map but how about throwing up some of your own trades ?




and that would help you ,to do what ?
ac


----------



## acouch

Wysiwyg said:


> I wanted to type that the road map is confusing because it does not take you to where you want to go.Although trying to decipher the (map  ) it still leaves me nonethewiser.




it is a bit like leading a horse to water ,and trying to make it drink you think Wysiwyg ?

well like everything you have to put time in .and i have written about it in previous posts.. the road map is a guidance for those that are interested..
i am not here to take you by the hand and lead you through the maze of trading and learning i am afraid.
the only way to learn is the hard way..
hope this is of some help to you, enjoy your day
ac


----------



## Wysiwyg

acouch said:


> it is a bit like leading a horse to water ,and trying to make it drink you think Wysiwyg ?




acouch matey, Is there a website you know of that explains this chart style please?


----------



## acouch

Wysiwyg said:


> acouch matey, Is there a website you know of that explains this chart style please?




Wysiwyg,
i suggest you go here to learn about medianlines..
there is a lot to learn on this site, if you wish to take your time,
the world can be your oyster..
one of the best things of trading is the learning process, it is like an adventure,
so enjoy the ride, the markets are always there ..your money might not..
so learn your trade well

my chart is my design..but it comes from medianlines

http://www.marketgeometry.com

have a great day, and take care
ac


----------



## BentRod

Acouch.....have you ever thought of starting your own thread "Acouch's Road Maps" or something similar?

Seems like it would be a good idea so those that are interested can ask questions of You.


Cheers mate.


----------



## acouch

BentRod said:


> Acouch.....have you ever thought of starting your own thread "Acouch's Road Maps" or something similar?
> 
> Seems like it would be a good idea so those that are interested can ask questions of You.
> 
> 
> Cheers mate.




i suppose i could, but most of the time, this thread is pretty quite..
but if the consensus is that i move ..i could 
ac


----------



## Wysiwyg

acouch said:


> Wysiwyg,
> i suggest you go here to learn about medianlines..
> there is a lot to learn on this site, if you wish to take your time,
> the world can be your oyster..
> one of the best things of trading is the learning process, it is like an adventure,
> so enjoy the ride, the markets are always there ..your money might not..
> so learn your trade well
> 
> my chart is my design..but it comes from medianlines
> 
> http://www.marketgeometry.com
> 
> have a great day, and take care
> ac




Thanks acouch.I checked the site out, the book about Alan Andrews Pitchforks and Tim Morges Website which claims this ...



> These techniques were used by Alan Andrews during the 1929 crash to make more than US $500 million [adjusted for inflation, that’s well over US $12 billion!]. We are facing the same market conditions now. Come take a Market Maps Seminar and let me teach you how to make money trading while the majority of the traders out there are struggling. The next seminar will be held Saturday January 17th, 2009 at 9 am CST via the internet.




Another path, another technique, more learning.An ongoing process of which I`ve been building 100`s of hours over the last 6 months.

Thanks and good luck with your way.


----------



## acouch

nice clean chart..
ac


----------



## acouch

upddated road map
as you can see how LIS has been holding price down 
not to say that it wont break to the upside..
but atm it is doing its job..
ac


----------



## acouch

chart end of trading day..
ac


----------



## Naked shorts

acouch said:


> one of the best things of trading is the learning process, it is like an adventure,




well said


----------



## acouch

good morning all,

as we all know that sycom closed at midnight,
and as the road map is a 24 hr chart, it hasn't finished its cycle.
and i have found that when it doesn't finish its 24 hr cycle..it will continue on from the previous day..to do so...so hence yesterday's chart 
as you can see also, though sycom was very quite..the LIS just was a brick wall for price...
have a great day , and good trades
ac


----------



## acouch

road map update, today's trading so far..
have a great day..
ac


----------



## Broadway

She may have just put in the LOD at 3411. *fingers crossed*

Your chart was 3413, OMG you missed by 2 points..

Great charts Ac, keep them coming, and don't move threads.


----------



## acouch

Broadway said:


> She may have just put in the LOD at 3411. *fingers crossed*
> 
> Your chart was 3413, OMG you missed by 2 points..
> 
> Great charts Ac, keep them coming, and don't move threads.



hi Broadway,
yes all those nos are very strong nos..and usually price will bounce of  them..and one will be the trend changer..
so it can start of a scalp, and end up lod ..
ac


----------



## acouch

updated chart..eod..
for sycom look at chart with all nos..
off the low of 11..the 42 pulled it up..
have a great evening..
ac


----------



## acouch

good morning all
today's road map
have a great day, and good trades
ac


----------



## James Austin

acouch said:


> good morning all
> today's road map
> have a great day, and good trades
> ac





3381

well, . . . hmmmm . . . . .
when does the book come out AC!?


----------



## acouch

James Austin said:


> 3381
> 
> well, . . . hmmmm . . . . .
> when does the book come out AC!?




haha James, i wouldnt know how to write it 

hope you are trading well 
ac


----------



## acouch

just a look how the road map has gone through the evening..
ac


----------



## acouch

good morning all
today's road map
have a great day and good trades
ac


----------



## rossw

Haven't been on this site since about September last year
just finished reading through this thread since then.
wow, plenty of good thoughts (and some funny arguments)

I've started looking a bit closer at the SPI this year, just on a sim. Battling a bit so far which is to be expected. Posting my daily results online (see sig) because it's an easy way to keep a diary.

Big up move this morning, will be interesting to see how it pans out this arvo


----------



## MRC & Co

Not a bad day trading today.

Just a quick note on how I saw the day and my thought processes (yes, this really is how simple my thought processes are when I trade). 

I was interested to see how cash opened, as SPI is too high relative to overseas markets based on the back of our commodity news linked with China recently, so I have been waiting for a big short. 

But I could actually make out that there was quite a bit of buying pressure early in the DOM, just someone trying to push us up (hitting the asks with decent size).  Got caught long the top of that choppy range early, but noticed a big seller come in to smash it down as BHP opened which looked like a dead dog so I cut and reverse and was lucky enough to get most of that early down move (at this point, was looking for the big running short and waiting for RIO to open to see if it would confirm).  RIO opened (as you know, later than BHP due to the alphabetical staggered open), and headed north in a straight line which looked powerful, SPI made a double bottom and so I cut and reverse again to now be long.  The buying was completely obvious so got a bit of the up move, not to mention, there was a gap above on the daily to close.  

Never expected the breakout from the flag though so missed the second leg of the up move.  However, got the short at the top (asks were refreshing and bids hitting into the asks looked to be a bit exhauseted).  We then chopped around, making a higher low but then a lower high, so no real sign of strength or weakness either way.  Tried to rally weakly at lunch, but false broke the high (short signal by itself) and once we made the double top at the false break level, with cash also hitting an important level and making a double top at that level itself, it was a great technical short (the SPI has been unusually technical lately).  From then on, it was all lower highs and lower lows, albeit, very slowly and painfully.  

That's all of the day I traded and my simple take on it.  Nothing specific in the order book, just obvious buying and basic trend structure and technical set-ups on the chart, in correlation with the cash index and the leading stocks.  No real look at Nikkei, Hang Seng or S&P, as the correlations have been blown out recently.

Cheers


----------



## Trembling Hand

MRC & Co said:


> No real look at Nikkei, Hang Seng or S&P, as the correlations have been blown out recently.




No ****!! Not unusual for me to have a long on the SPI, Short the K200 and scalping the HSI spread!! Messing with my little punch drunk brain :bonk:

On another note when did the day margins come back on IB ?  will be able to swing that 200 lot on the K200 now


----------



## CanOz

Great post Mr.C, an insightful peak into your day. Very interesting, would love to read more of it.

Cheers,


CanOz


----------



## acouch

eod chart..+ some syco
have a great evening
ac


----------



## sails

acouch said:


> eod chart..+ some syco
> have a great evening
> ac




Hi Ac, your road map worked pretty well today especially where it gave resistance at all your levels eg. 3403, then 3427 and finally the double top at 3447.  Just wondering how you would trade those resistance levels?  Do you get out at that point and then go back in when the market passes it again?


----------



## acouch

sails said:


> Hi Ac, your road map worked pretty well today especially where it gave resistance at all your levels eg. 3403, then 3427 and finally the double top at 3447.  Just wondering how you would trade those resistance levels?  Do you get out at that point and then go back in when the market passes it again?





yes sails, as atm on this contract..the first target gives you around 20 points upside..downside is around 30 points..and as i have said..each no is very strong..and price most of the time will reject it..before it continues up to the next no..or if you take the scalp against the trend you could find that it was the change in trend..

it of course depends on how much you want to take out of the market..you might only do one trade with multi contracts..and call it a day..
ac


----------



## jersey10

CanOz said:


> Great post Mr.C, an insightful peak into your day. Very interesting, would love to read more of it.
> 
> Cheers,
> 
> 
> CanOz




ditto. 

Not a bad memory either to recall your trading day like that.


----------



## acouch

good morning all
today's road map
have a great day and good trades
ac


----------



## Trembling Hand

jersey10 said:


> Not a bad memory either to recall your trading day like that.



 Interesting comment. I would think any self aware trader should be able to run through their day and how it played out?? Especially one who is glued to a screen watching ever tic. 

Very interesting!


----------



## acouch

updated road map
ac


----------



## James Austin

nice work AC
do you manually draw up your median lines? or is this an FT indicator.

thanks
James


----------



## acouch

James Austin said:


> nice work AC
> do you manually draw up your median lines? or is this an FT indicator.
> 
> thanks
> James





no james,i manually draws these and i set this chart up at the beginning of each contract..takes me a while i must say..but it is worth it as it last for the 3 months..
working a treat 

ac


----------



## MRC & Co

Well there goes the day of RIO coming off that I was waiting for.  To run a short on the SPI.

How did I go, even with short conviction?  Chopped to pieces!!!


----------



## jersey10

Trembling Hand said:


> Interesting comment. I would think any self aware trader should be able to run through their day and how it played out?? Especially one who is glued to a screen watching ever tic.




What is a self aware trader?


----------



## Joolean

ac,
is this image you posted a few days ago, of range bars using floor pivots or is it something to do with median lines?
I'm reading Franks book at the mo so was just curious cos I think it's the first time I've seen you post such a chart.

Cheers,
Julian.


----------



## RobinHood

looks pretty unfortunate day for making money 

Hang Seng too.

Do you find MRC&CO / TH you have to increase holding times to pull anything out of this?


----------



## acouch

Joolean said:


> ac,
> is this image you posted a few days ago, of range bars using floor pivots or is it something to do with median lines?
> I'm reading Franks book at the mo so was just curious cos I think it's the first time I've seen you post such a chart.
> 
> Cheers,
> Julian.




no julian
that was a ft chart with range bars..
i have had ft software for about 10 years...
ac


----------



## MRC & Co

RobinHood said:


> Do you find MRC&CO / TH you have to increase holding times to pull anything out of this?




Absolutely, I do.

Have to hold something onside, offside, back onside, back offside, back onside, to scratch, to onside, to nearly back to your BE point, to onside, just to get any decent runner these days it seems.

Not really a scalpers market IMO, rediculously choppy, and the squeezes these days can be 15-20 ticks, so makes it hard to buy or sell pullbacks too.  More of a position traders market at the moment.  Which is just a matter of altering your style a bit, but makes for far bigger equity swings which I'm not comfortable with yet.


----------



## Trembling Hand

RobinHood said:


> looks pretty unfortunate day for making money
> 
> Hang Seng too.
> 
> Do you find MRC&CO / TH you have to increase holding times to pull anything out of this?



 Just another day! IMO



jersey10 said:


> What is a self aware trader?



 Let me start with what isn't one. Someone starts with loose intentions on a trading plan ie not a real plan just some crappy ideas. Then goes about trading and blows a heap of money over a couple of weeks with out a pause for consideration of their mistakes. When its all gone they look back at the destruction of their account and see all the mistakes and broken rules. Their pathetic conclusion is "Boy I need to be more Disciplined & follow my rules"  So they go about adding new "rules" or the next method and promising themselves to stick to the new way and honestly believe they will. But in the heat of the battle when they are being tested by lack of SKILLS they are literally another person and all the promised plans made in the calm out of hours action means nothing. Even worst they are NOT AWARE they have shifted persons.

A self aware trader has very specific rules or setups or previous evidence of trades working even if they cannot fully put them into words. Then approaches each day with realistic expectations and targets but adjusts them with changing conditions of the market and their P & L. He/She is AWARE of what the market is doing and what they are trying to do with that info. It fits their previous notions/experiences of market movements and therefore have a frame work on how to trade it. If not that is a trigger that they are in new territory but still they are AWARE of it.


----------



## Frank D

Trembling Hand said:


> Just another day! IMO
> 
> 
> A self aware trader has very specific rules or setups or previous evidence of trades working even if they cannot fully put them into words. Then approaches each day with realistic expectations and targets but adjusts them with changing conditions of the market and their P & L. He/She is AWARE of what the market is doing and what they are trying to do with that info. It fits their previous notions/experiences of market movements and therefore have a frame work on how to trade it. If not that is a trigger that they are in new territory but still they are AWARE of it.




Amen to that!!!!


----------



## Joolean

acouch said:


> no julian
> that was a ft chart with range bars..
> i have had ft software for about 10 years...
> ac




I was more wondering about the levels used on that chart ac. Frank uses ft,  range bars and pivots in his book, so was just wondering if the levels on your chart were the same, or something else and whether they have any relation to the median lines that you use? That sentence is probably too long. 

Cheers,
Jules.


----------



## acouch

Joolean said:


> I was more wondering about the levels used on that chart ac. Frank uses ft,  range bars and pivots in his book, so was just wondering if the levels on your chart were the same, or something else and whether they have any relation to the median lines that you use? That sentence is probably too long.
> 
> Cheers,
> Jules.




not the same as fd's on that chart....but similar in % as all fib ratio's..
in a way related to medianline, as often than not..ML's come in on fib nos as well..but the software package i use for the road map isnt ft....
ac


----------



## acouch

this is how the road map is atm..but you can see the advantage if you look at it, taking your money off at each support/resistance....
and waiting for re entry..

if you wish to continue trading..atm it is trading within the 3381/3351..range..

so range trading,,and building up a lot of energy for a break..

ac


----------



## acouch

good morning all
Monday's road map
have a great weekend and take care
ac


----------



## acouch

updated road map..
she tried hard to hold the LIS at 3336 
she warranted a gold star for the effort..
good trades
ac


----------



## acouch

wrong.mao...bh..
ac

sorry i see i also left the prices at the side behind..
hopefully next map will be better 
ac


----------



## acouch

updated chart..
ac


----------



## rossw

couple of nice trends today
not normally such a big move over lunch though.

ac, I haven't really paid much attention to your charts before because I don't really understand them. But it's interesting you marked 3336 as your LIS. I had marked 3338 as a point of interest from zooming out to a 1 hour chart and marking a couple of highs/lows.


----------



## acouch

rossw said:


> couple of nice trends today
> not normally such a big move over lunch though.
> 
> ac, I haven't really paid much attention to your charts before because I don't really understand them. But it's interesting you marked 3336 as your LIS. I had marked 3338 as a point of interest from zooming out to a 1 hour chart and marking a couple of highs/lows.




yes the 36 has been a magnet for price today..
the run up showed weakness when it could'nt even tickle hod..only
managed 51..
ac


----------



## rossw

acouch said:


> yes the 36 has been a magnet for price today..
> the run up showed weakness when it could'nt even tickle hod..only
> managed 51..
> ac




after it took a nice breather at the LIS...

and this current downtrend offered another chance for a short entry on retracement to that same upper 3330 region


----------



## MRC & Co

rossw said:


> couple of nice trends today
> not normally such a big move over lunch though.




Not normally Citibank part nationalisation over lunch news either.    Unfortunately, wasn't there for most of that up move, but the bit I was there for, was pretty easy to trade.  

Not sure about the LIS part, but the false break of an important cash level, saw us come off post the Citi rally IMO.


----------



## acouch

good morning all
today's road map
have a great day, and good trades
ac


----------



## acouch

just though i would update the eod spi chart, for those that have
been following since first posted 20.05.08...
very close now to 2956..
good trades
ac


----------



## acouch

hod 23..gap fill was at 22
gap marked with circle..
great trades
ac


----------



## sails

MRC & Co said:


> ...Not sure about the LIS part, but the false break of an important cash level, saw us come off post the Citi rally IMO.




MRC - is the "important cash level" you mention the XJO close of 3351? 
Are there any other useful ways to use cash to help trade the SPI?


----------



## Trembling Hand

Sheish , Is the paint dry on this sucker yet?

Probably get one of those 2:00 - 2:15 take offs - or implosions


----------



## MRC & Co

sails said:


> MRC - is the "important cash level" you mention the XJO close of 3351?
> Are there any other useful ways to use cash to help trade the SPI?




3368 was the level I had Sails, spiked through it and came straight back off.

I only use cash for this purpose and to see how the bigger stocks are doing.  If the banks are coming off, but the miners remain stubborn, then I won't be looking to run longer short positions other than a quick scalp.

Just my opinion.  

TH, agree, I think it will break one way or the other.  More of a short bias though, after it's similar pattern on the 17th (only this one is a bit more volatile and drawn out) and the fact we are already too high.  Not much support below either.


----------



## sails

MRC & Co said:


> 3368 was the level I had Sails, spiked through it and came straight back off....




Thanks MRC - XJO closed at 3351 yesterday, so is your figure of 3368 fair value for the SPI which includes interest?

SPI very schizophrenic today - wild roller coaster this morning and now coiling.  Options expiry on Thursday, so will be interesting to see if the boyz decide to do a bit of pushing.


----------



## Trembling Hand

MRC & Co said:


> TH, agree, I think it will break one way or the other.  More of a short bias though, after it's similar pattern on the 17th (only this one is a bit more volatile and drawn out) and the fact we are already too high.  Not much support below either.




If she does go down my first play will be the false break so it comes back into the range. Been very fashionable lately - all the kids are wearing it.


----------



## CanOz

Sorry to interupt this thread with such a novistical (new word) issue, but can anyone tell me the IB/Amibroker symbol for the spot month SPI Fut? I tried APH9-SNFE-FUT and 99 other varients to no avail.

Many thanks,


CanOz


----------



## sails

CanOz said:


> Sorry to interupt this thread with such a novistical issue, but can anyone tell me the IB/Amibroker symbol for the spot month SPI Fut? I tried APH9-SNFE-FUT and 99 other varients to no avail.
> 
> Many thanks,
> 
> 
> CanOz




Try using lower case and add -aud on the end.  Saiter posted something along those lines in the AB thread and it's something to do with the latest version.


----------



## MRC & Co

Well looks like RIO and BHP ruined that short as per usual.

Level was low from the 18th Sails.


----------



## Seaking

CanOz said:


> Sorry to interupt this thread with such a novistical (new word) issue, but can anyone tell me the IB/Amibroker symbol for the spot month SPI Fut? I tried APH9-SNFE-FUT and 99 other varients to no avail.
> 
> Many thanks,
> 
> 
> CanOz



 Doesn't have to be lower case. Can be either, but as Sails pointed out, AB 5.2 has a different code format requirement.
SPI = APH9-SNFE-FUT-AUD
BHP = BHP-ASX-STK-AUD

A tad annoying to have to go and do my entire Aus codes again. If I knew that, I probably wouldn't have upgraded from 5.1


----------



## CanOz

sails said:


> Try using lower case and add -aud on the end.  Saiter posted something along those lines in the AB thread and it's something to do with the latest version.




You're bang on there Sails, thanks mate!

aph9-snfe-fut-aud

Wonderful!

Good trades,


CanOz


----------



## MRC & Co

Trembling Hand said:


> If she does go down my first play will be the false break so it comes back into the range. Been very fashionable lately - all the kids are wearing it.




Yes, my play was the false break of the 3299 level which we couldn't break ealier.  

Then I just couldn't pull the trigger on the cut and reverse even though the break looked legit, so just took my loss, too bad, maybe next time.


----------



## acouch

good morning all
todays road map..
have a great day and good trades
ac

map a bit early..market not quite close..have to go out.


----------



## Trembling Hand

sails said:


> Options expiry on Thursday, so will be interesting to see if the boyz decide to do a bit of pushing.




They love their sell programs don't they?


----------



## acouch

road map at the eod..
ac


----------



## acouch

good morning all
today's road map
have a great day, and good trades
ac


----------



## acouch

good morning all
today's road map
have a great day, and good trades
ac


----------



## Broadway

They keep releasing those weekly US jobs data...maybe they could do it monthly, allow a 3 day rally perhaps...


----------



## Trembling Hand

SPI deliciously back in sync with our northern neighbors.


----------



## rossw

would've been a profitable last half hour today
pretty much the day's entire range done.

interesting to see those big orders get taken out too. 100+ @ 3301 at 4.18

that msci re-weight pushed our match up high in some stocks.


----------



## acouch

good morning all
Monday's road map
have a great weekend, and take care
ac


----------



## Naked shorts

Trembling Hand said:


> SPI deliciously back in sync with our northern neighbors.





hahahahaha


----------



## Broadway

NYSE volume up. Anyone impressed, or are things just too ugly right now to be bullish?

http://www.wallstreetcourier.com/technician/daily-market-statistics/daily-market-statistics.htm#dow


----------



## Trembling Hand

Broadway said:


> NYSE volume up. Anyone impressed, or are things just too ugly right now to be bullish?



Why lock yourself into worrying about bullish. We are trading futs. as long as it moves


----------



## tech/a

Broadway said:


> NYSE volume up. Anyone impressed, or are things just too ugly right now to be bullish?
> 
> http://www.wallstreetcourier.com/technician/daily-market-statistics/daily-market-statistics.htm#dow





Higher volume without follow through on Range.

Could be selling into any strength.
Look now for extremely low volume and where this comes.
On an up or down day test to give a strong indication of who is in control.


----------



## Broadway

rossw said:


> would've been a profitable last half hour today
> pretty much the day's entire range done.
> 
> interesting to see those big orders get taken out too. 100+ @ 3301 at 4.18
> 
> that msci re-weight pushed our match up high in some stocks.




Hey Rossw.

Was reading your blog and saw this in the comments, by anonymous-

"The SPI is very easy to trade its more easier to trade than you think. Keep it simple.
The SPI is a fully controlled instrument. Instos know the entire path before it happens. They all trade together against traders that dont know. Be careful as the amature doesnt last long. Happy trading. From a true SPI master trader."

Interesting comment I thought. 

Do others agree or disagree with this?


----------



## Trembling Hand

No No its true  the 5 or so insto who do 70% of the vol trade against a handful of 1 lot traders  

lol Spi Master.


----------



## MRC & Co

ROLFMAO.

A large chunk of the SPI volume is done by traders who don't have a clue of it's path, and they do fine.


----------



## acouch

how the road map has progressed during the day, and into sycom..
enjoy your evening
ac


----------



## acouch

good morning all
today's road map
have a great day and good trades
ac


----------



## tech/a

tech/a said:


> Higher volume without follow through on Range.
> 
> Could be selling into any strength.
> Look now for extremely low volume and where this comes.
> On an up or down day test to give a strong indication of who is in control.




And so it was.


----------



## acouch

nice support at LIS
ac


----------



## rossw

and the high of 3215 is pretty close to your marker at 3217...



and no idea on what those comments were all about on my blog


----------



## Bobby

Thoughts please  ~  on why the SPI & XJO seem to move in sink most times ' yet diverge away from each other out of the blue    ?

Not close to the roll over.


----------



## Trembling Hand

Bobby said:


> Thoughts please  ~  on why the SPI & XJO seem to move in sink most times ' yet diverge away from each other out of the blue    ?
> 
> Not close to the roll over.




What time frame are you talking about?


----------



## Bobby

Trembling Hand said:


> What time frame are you talking about?




Intra-day to minutes , ( XJO is always monitored ) .

Question for you  , do you just use discretionary stops when scalping  .


----------



## acouch

good morning all
today's road map
have a great day, and good trades
ac


----------



## Trembling Hand

Bobby said:


> Question for you  , do you just use discretionary stops when scalping  .




Not sure what you mean. 

My stops will depend on the trade & type of entry. If that what you mean. I have no set stop amount. Just what makes sense for the set up.


----------



## Bobby

Trembling Hand said:


> Not sure what you mean.
> 
> My stops will depend on the trade & type of entry. If that what you mean. I have no set stop amount. Just what makes sense for the set up.




Sorry for not being clear , when your scalping the SPI do you just have a mental stop in your head for each trade or do you actually place them on the platform ?

With the amount of trades you do per day sometimes , every second must be of value


----------



## Trembling Hand

I use bracket orders. so its all auto. Just have to shuffle things around as the trades move.


----------



## Bobby

Trembling Hand said:


> I use bracket orders. so its all auto. Just have to shuffle things around as the trades move.




Go it ! thankyou .


----------



## jersey10

what's with the 370 @ 3175??


----------



## Trembling Hand

jersey10 said:


> what's with the 370 @ 3175??




Hit it and find out 

pivot point


----------



## jersey10

Trembling Hand said:


> Hit it and find out
> 
> pivot point




pivot point based on what? when the high for the day is 3171


----------



## Trembling Hand

jersey10 said:


> pivot point based on what? when the high for the day is 3171



 Yesterdays,

(H + L + C)/3

Or even yesterdays mid, very important.


----------



## jersey10

Trembling Hand said:


> Yesterdays,
> 
> (H + L + C)/3
> 
> Or even yesterdays mid, very important.




thanks.

I have never heard about this formula being used to determine pivot points for the following day. Does it have a name or is it something you have sussed out over time??


----------



## Trembling Hand

Nah its just the classic way .... i thought :

R2 = P + (H - L) = P + (R1 - S1)
R1 = (P x 2) - L
P = (H + L + C) / 3
S1 = (P x 2) - H
S2 = P - (H - L) = P - (R1 - S1)


----------



## jersey10

that level was obvious again during the last ten minutes


----------



## acouch

road map eod trading..but map is 24 hr so goes into sycom
ac


----------



## Trembling Hand

jersey10 said:


> that level was obvious again during the last ten minutes




Yep. It was always gonna be an inside day. lots can be gained from knowing what type of day we are likely to have,

Runner up,
Breaker down or
today's day, pegged in yesterdays range. 

3 types of days - you could probably make a career out of knowing that.


----------



## MRC & Co

jersey10 said:


> that level was obvious again during the last ten minutes




Yeh, numerous ways to trade levels like that.  Today I placed orders a tick infront of it and closed half the tick below (trying to take flicks), and let the other half run a few more ticks and then closed it out.  Thought there would be an actual legit test of the level, so didn't run the second half of my position.    Obviously nobody had enough size to get done.  

TH, do you find pivots useful?  I use the auto CQG pivots and find them useless (price always chops around them, but doesn't give an idea of a false break or respect them well, so don't try using them anymore), I will check tomorrow if it was at the same level as you had (unsure what forumula they use).  

Very odd price action today, lots of random sweeps, not to mention GDP figures were terrible, but we choppped down with huge squeezes and tails (quite common these days), before rallying back to the high.  Unfortunately, didn't hold my short position, due to yesterdays rate announcements price action!


----------



## Trembling Hand

MRC & Co said:


> TH, do you find pivots useful?



 As targets for longer trades rather than entries. but sometimes like today they are helpful. I guess it depends on the day. If we have momentum a number pulled out of yesterdays action isn't going stop _Mr Big Ballz _from smashing through it, as you know.


----------



## jersey10

MRC & Co said:


> Yeh, numerous ways to trade levels like that.  Today I placed orders a tick infront of it and closed half the tick below (trying to take flicks), and let the other half run a few more ticks and then closed it out.




So the strong level was at 3175, you placed a limit sell order at 3174 got filled as it ticks up to this level then put a limit buy for half of them back at 3173? and let the other half go to where you feel it would start reversing back up? Have i understood this right?
Being so sure that 3175 wouldn't break why don't you run the whole lot more than 1 tick?


----------



## MRC & Co

jersey10 said:


> So the strong level was at 3175, you placed a limit sell order at 3174 got filled as it ticks up to this level then put a limit buy for half of them back at 3173? and let the other half go to where you feel it would start reversing back up? Have i understood this right?
> Being so sure that 3175 wouldn't break why don't you run the whole lot more than 1 tick?




Yeh, exactly.

The reason I took half, was because I thought we may test the level, bounce back, test, bounce back etc, so you can keep getting fills infront of it and covering a tick or two down.  It's called 'taking flicks'.

I wasn't sure it wouldn't break, otherwise I would have done tripple the size and ran it longer.  As I tried doing with the contract low on the SPI on Monday with my full lot!    Got OWNED!


----------



## Broadway

Trembling Hand said:


> Yep. It was always gonna be an inside day. lots can be gained from knowing what type of day we are likely to have,
> 
> Runner up,
> Breaker down or
> today's day, pegged in yesterdays range.
> 
> 3 types of days - you could probably make a career out of knowing that.




Can I ask what indicates a range day coming? Was it info in the price and dom after open, or did you see something before open?

cheers TH.


----------



## MRC & Co

Broadway said:


> Can I ask what indicates a range day coming? Was it info in the price and dom after open, or did you see something before open?
> 
> cheers TH.




Yeh, I would be interested to know this too.......

I would say TH may just look at a daily chart, but unsure?


----------



## Trembling Hand

Maybe I should of said was "likely" to be a range day like I said in the XAO thread we are likely to run higher after the opening sweep yesterday. 

Before the open what we knew was this,

Yesterday was a large range day,
Making new lows then pushing higher,
We had Syco low at 3126,
50% level of cash hours at 3175,
Classic PP  also @ 3175.
V.important news to come out at 11:30.
This current down trend is 2 weeks old.

then on the open a run towards yesterdays 50%, PP.

They make for a likely inside day (of sorts). I was thinking that if the GDP was good we could take out 3175 and have a target up to yesterdays highs. but I didn't think we would be able to take the syco lows or not for long. Just part of the back filling. every day in my diary I jot down the levels etc and always try to put in an idea of what will play out based on patterns from some loose back testing stats. That's what I had today. not bad for a punch drunk boxer on ICE.


----------



## RobinHood

> 50% level of cash hours at 3175,




What you mean by this?

I take it you don't look at these "classic" pivots when trading HSI due to the gaps yeah?


----------



## acouch

today's road map
have a great day and good trades
ac


----------



## Trembling Hand

RobinHood said:


> What you mean by this?
> 
> I take it you don't look at these "classic" pivots when trading HSI due to the gaps yeah?




Tuesday range was 78 points during cash hours. 

Low 3136, High 3214 = (78 /2) + low = 3275 

As for HSI yeah I still look for points & patterns to figure likely moves.


----------



## MRC & Co

Ah k, interesting TH.  Thx.


----------



## acouch

good morning all
today's road map, as you can see i have 
high lighted the 2956..as this is also my target on my eod chart posted the other week..and has been for some time..
not that i think it will be the all time low..getting there though 
but i also have some time coming in today as well. but have to allow
+/-..and it seems a big ask for it to get there today, but on sycom is
another story..but it has to be printed on my eod chart..so perhaps monday..
we will see of course what the trading gods are prepared to give 
have a great day, and good trades
ac


----------



## rossw

What a slow couple of hours...:sleeping:


----------



## MRC & Co

rossw said:


> What a slow couple of hours...:sleeping:




Yeh, I'm afraid this is how it may be for some time to come.


----------



## Trembling Hand

MRC & Co said:


> Yeh, I'm afraid this is how it may be for some time to come.




Yep this is the SPI of old.


----------



## rossw

Trembling Hand said:


> Yep this is the SPI of old.




I can understand why you'd be a scalper on a day like today, just taking a couple of points as it gets to the top/bottom of this range and reverses

How's HSI/Nikkei/Kospi today? Just as slow?


----------



## Joolean

Out of curiosity th and mrc, could you guys scalp without the dom? I.e. just off say a 1 min chart?


----------



## MRC & Co

Joolean said:


> Out of curiosity th and mrc, could you guys scalp without the dom? I.e. just off say a 1 min chart?




Na, I couldn't.  You would be paying spreads too often cause you don't know what it is.

Ross, thing is with Kospi, Nikkei etc, is that you at least can do more size.  So you can scalp 2 ticks on a 10-20 lot no problem, do that in the SPI and you could be left well and truly beached if they thin the book on you.

Time to find me a more volatile market!


----------



## Trembling Hand

Joolean said:


> Out of curiosity th and mrc, could you guys scalp without the dom? I.e. just off say a 1 min chart?




I couldn't scalp with it today!! 

Had some good position longs today which saved me..... just.


----------



## Joolean

Cheers guys.

It's funny you mentioning the volatility because I'm sim trading the 12/1/07 and by coincidence, its range till 2pm is 26 points!  Grinding painfully.


----------



## cutz

Hi,

Is anybody using the SPI as a long term vehicle to gain exposure to the ASX200, I was looking at going long on the index so I’ve been exploring the practicalities of buying front month and rolling each month or just going out to December, any pros and cons. It seems most traders here are scalping.


----------



## MRC & Co

Trembling Hand said:


> I couldn't scalp with it today!!
> 
> Had some good position longs today which saved me..... just.




Yeh, it was a SH*TTTT day!  The spoofing was on another level all-together!  Was actually really farking annoying me today!

Luckily, I've been having a merry old time on the closes lately (seems I'm starting to work them out a bit), so saved my azz today!


----------



## acouch

good morning all
Monday's road map..
not much difference to Friday's..maybe 1 tic here or there
have a great weekend and take care
ac


----------



## acouch

today's road map updated.
ac


----------



## acouch

good morning all
today's road map
have a great day and good trades
ac


----------



## acouch

updated road map
ac


----------



## acouch

good morning all
today's road map
have a great day and good trades
ac

yesterdays worked ok..for those that follow..
1 tic of lod..3 tics of high


----------



## Joolean

Hey all,

I have my simulation trading setup in Amibroker using historical tick but at the moment when I make a market order, it fills me at whatever price was last traded which is not realistic.
I'm noticing I'm taking a lot of 6 point trades out of say 10-13 point ranges and I'm sure this is overly optimistic.

If the last price traded was say 3000 and I hit buy at market, what should I be filling that at? 3002, 3003 or even worse?
If I set a limit buy @ 3000 and that becomes the low of the current range, should I assume I didn't get filled? Perhaps only fill it @ 3000 if price drops at least another 2 points?

Just trying to make my sim a bit more realistic. I'm overtrading these small ranges and I'm sure I'll stop doing that once I factor in some spread.

Cheers,
Julian.


----------



## acouch

today's updated road map
ac


----------



## Trembling Hand

Joolean said:


> Just trying to make my sim a bit more realistic. I'm overtrading these small ranges and I'm sure I'll stop doing that once I factor in some spread.
> 
> Cheers,
> Julian.




I would use NT replay sim. You can record the Depth and get the real thing with much more realistic fills ie buys will fill at offers and sells at bids. Even then Sim trading you still have to be careful cause the fills are nowhere near 100% true but last trade is way off what you would get in the market.


----------



## Joolean

Thanks th, but I don't have an IB account yet hence using historical tick data. Last fill is obviously not good but I can add a certain amount of spread to that. Just wondering on average what I should use?

Cheers,
Julian.


----------



## Trembling Hand

Joolean said:


> Thanks th, but I don't have an IB account yet hence using historical tick data. Last fill is obviously not good but I can add a certain amount of spread to that. Just wondering on average what I should use?
> 
> Cheers,
> Julian.




Yeah hard to say. Some times its as tight as 1 tick but it can jump out to 4 or more. Obviously the wilder the move the bigger the slippage but I guess its a tick 70 % of the time.


----------



## Joolean

Thanks th. I'd assumed it would be wider than that but I'll use 2 for safe measure.

Sim will never match the real thing anyway but I'd be eaten alive if I tried learning in the market.


----------



## acouch

good morning all
todays road map
have a great day, and good trades
ac


----------



## acouch

updated road map chart

don't forget ..gap fill at 3191..sitting there waiting for 
a couple of days..so keep a beady eye on it..
ac


----------



## acouch

good morning all
today's road amp
have a great day and good trades
ac


----------



## acouch

good morning all
Monday's road map
have a great weekend, and take care
ac


----------



## sails

I am only getting one level of market depth in IB book trader for March SPI.  Is anyone else having this problem?

June SPI has the five levels, but the bid/ask spread is wider so not keen on that idea either.


----------



## sails

sails said:


> I am only getting one level of market depth in IB book trader for March SPI.  Is anyone else having this problem?
> 
> June SPI has the five levels, but the bid/ask spread is wider so not keen on that idea either.




Never mind - closed book trader down and reloaded.  All working again now.


----------



## Trembling Hand

Sails If you have it open before the market starts trading it seems to do that. but you have figured that out now


----------



## sails

Trembling Hand said:


> Sails If you have it open before the market starts trading it seems to do that. but you have figured that out now




Thanks TH.   I did have it open before the market opened.

LOL, was planning to go live today but got spooked without enough DOM


----------



## acouch

chart update..
road map eod..
ac


----------



## acouch

good morning all
today's road map
have a great day and good trades
ac


----------



## acouch

updated road map chart
ac


----------



## MRC & Co

Painfully, sllooooowwwwwwww, to the point, it's pointless to scalp IMO.

Yaaaaaawwwwwwwnnnnnnnnnnnn.


----------



## NAsX

MRC & Co said:


> Painfully, sllooooowwwwwwww, to the point, it's pointless to scalp IMO.
> 
> Yaaaaaawwwwwwwnnnnnnnnnnnn.




I hope you didn't actually fall asleep soon after your post MRC & Co :


----------



## acouch

how the day finished
ac


----------



## CanOz

That was quite a day today, looked like steady buying all day, you SPI traders must have made a bucket load!

CanOz


----------



## MRC & Co

NAsX said:


> I hope you didn't actually fall asleep soon after your post MRC & Co :




LOL, yes, very funny timing.  

Someone upstairs must have heard me!


----------



## acouch

good morning all
today's road map
this is the last road map for this quarter..
tomorrow will be the June one..
have a great day and good trades
ac


----------



## Joolean

Hey all,

at what time on Monday morning do you know the opening price for the spi?

In my historical data, I use the overnight session to gauge the open and plan out the days trading but can never do this for Monday morning because I don't have the data. Just wondering how this works in the real market?

Cheers,
Jules.


----------



## acouch

good morning all
today's road map for JUNE

rollover today..so should be a wild morning..

take care
ac


----------



## skyQuake

Joolean said:


> Hey all,
> 
> at what time on Monday morning do you know the opening price for the spi?
> 
> In my historical data, I use the overnight session to gauge the open and plan out the days trading but can never do this for Monday morning because I don't have the data. Just wondering how this works in the real market?
> 
> Cheers,
> Jules.




9:50 like every morning. However closing price is fri nite (and is illiquid so there may not be a proper close), and a LOT can occur on the weekend which will affect the SPI open.

Personally i'd like to look at the ADRs and the US futs to gauge where its gonna open.


----------



## Freddo

Joolean said:


> Hey all,
> 
> at what time on Monday morning do you know the opening price for the spi?
> 
> In my historical data, I use the overnight session to gauge the open and plan out the days trading but can never do this for Monday morning because I don't have the data. Just wondering how this works in the real market?
> 
> Cheers,
> Jules.




Hey Jules, l also use ADRS as well as Sycom close to get an estimate
but never really know an exact figure as preopen action seems to impact
on the actual opening price.

Cheers
Freddo
PS Having some fun scalping the FTSE at the moment


----------



## Joolean

Thanks skyQuake and Freddo.



> preopen action seems to impact on the actual opening price.



Freddo, what do you mean by pre-open here? The ten minutes on the spi before the asx market opens? And when you say the Sycom close, do you mean the closing price from 4:30pm the previous Friday?

I hadn't heard the term ADR before but did a quick search. Is that an American depository receipt and does that just mean looking at where stocks like BHP and ANZ closed in the US on Friday?

Thanks,
Jules.


----------



## Freddo

Joolean said:


> Thanks skyQuake and Freddo.
> 
> 
> Freddo, what do you mean by pre-open here? The ten minutes on the spi before the asx market opens? And when you say the Sycom close, do you mean the closing price from 4:30pm the previous Friday?
> 
> I hadn't heard the term ADR before but did a quick search. Is that an American depository receipt and does that just mean looking at where stocks like BHP and ANZ closed in the US on Friday?
> 
> Thanks,
> Jules.




Jules 
By Sycom close I mean the close of the night session .

Pre-open have a read of this
https://www.aussiestockforums.com/forums/showthread.php?t=12567
it will give you a bit more info and I think TH has a chart in there

RE: ADRS yes thats right but I look at them every morning www.brokerone.com.au has a free reports section.

I have a spreadsheet to calculate the impact the ADR movement

This is all just to give me an idea of the day should do however reality is
I remind myself it doesn't matter where I think the open is.
I am pretty much hoping the day will gap because I seem to trade gaps well
If it gaps with the trend then at open if it does this I will do that
If it gaps against the trend then at open if it does this I will do that

One of the hardest things I found was to stop trying to be a forecaster and just be a trader.  

Regards

Freddo


----------



## acouch

Good morning all
Monday's road map
have a great weekend and take care
ac


----------



## MRC & Co

Interesting little play on Fridays session.

Bearing in mind we just had a contract roll (lots of people doing a lot of business that needed to be done), the Nikkei was shut and we opened within the previous days range, came off and chopped around on very very low volume, I assumed this HAD to be an inside day.  

We came to the low of the prevoius day and on the tick, was a some big size, around 100 contracts, with another 70-80 behind that (probably real as most on the bid that day was, except the 100 lot that pulled earlier in the day).  GREAT place to go long with some decent size with a 1-2 tick stop, considering the aforementioned circumstances.


----------



## nunthewiser

acouch said:


> Good morning all
> Monday's road map
> have a great weekend and take care
> ac




Gday m8 ...... i have been looking at  these "road maps " on this thread for a while now and please forgive my lack of understanding but what exactly are they ? are they the expected ranges ? are the shaded areas expected p[oints that will be hit/bounce off etc etc . not here dissing it just mainly trying to get a grasp on what these chart type pics signify as am intrested in knowing what im looking at when i view them

thanks and sorry if my question a bit naieve but wondering for a lil while and not gunna find out unless i ask 

basically just want a pointer towards  reading it

cheers


----------



## Joolean

Thanks Freddo, and for the MF reports link. I use the open price just to project what the extremes of the day might be based on atr so I can then do my if this else etc. After that, my strategy is then to trade exactly in the opposite direction of whatever I feel is right. 

Nunthewiser, ac's charts use median lines also known as Andrews Pitchfork. http://www.medianline.com/
Ac, you should just add that link as your signature.


----------



## nunthewiser

Joolean said:


> Nunthewiser, ac's charts use median lines also known as Andrews Pitchfork. http://www.medianline.com/
> Ac, you should just add that link as your signature.




ahha now viewed in that context on the chart , i have seen that analysis before ..in fact here on asf also

a lot clearer now .

cheers


----------



## acouch

monday's road map updated eod..
ac


----------



## acouch

morning all
today's road map
have a great day and good trades
ac


----------



## acouch

updated road map
some strong support here at 94..
ac


----------



## acouch

good morning all
today's road map
have a great day and good trades
ac


----------



## rossw

such a slow middle of the day and finally some excitement with only 10 mins left


----------



## MRC & Co

Yeh but some good levels to fade in the first part of that chop, 16s and 24s from memory.


----------



## acouch

spi road map eod..with a little of sycom..

been baby sitting my grandaughter..so missed the day..
the lis 3584..lod 3580..hod 3640..road map 3645..so out 5 points on the high, and 4 on the lis..

but it is a new map..needs a week or so to settle in..
ac


----------



## MRC & Co

MRC & Co said:


> Yeh but some good levels to fade in the first part of that chop, 16s and 24s from memory.




Here is what I mean.  3 tick stops and even uptick after buying 16s and downtick if buying 24s, once in a position to get the momentum going your way.  Entry with limits already placed on the price levels.  Exits discretionary for me, usually to the midpoint so 20s.

Would have had 6 profitable trades if you took entries once it came back into the range after initially breaking.  Fading the already established levels from before the break up.

Time element, good time to do it considering SPI usually starts chopping around this time as you can see at the bottom, 11:30am.  Meaning you wont get many sweeps against you so can control your risk well.  About the only way you can make money in that junk, considering you have clear points to fade and clear (tight) stops.


----------



## MRC & Co

MRC & Co said:


> Here is what I mean.  3 tick stops and even uptick after buying 16s and downtick if buying 24s.




Sorry, that is meant to be downtick if selling 24s.


----------



## Bobby

Like to fade late in days like this ,  BUT got visitors  ,  so closed off at the worst time  .
Also get phone charities or Telstra's ( Indians calling  )  .

Now in future I'm going to lock the gates & turn off all communication  :fu: em !!!!!


----------



## acouch

MRC & Co said:


> Here is what I mean.  3 tick stops and even uptick after buying 16s and downtick if buying 24s, once in a position to get the momentum going your way.  Entry with limits already placed on the price levels.  Exits discretionary for me, usually to the midpoint so 20s.
> 
> Would have had 6 profitable trades if you took entries once it came back into the range after initially breaking.  Fading the already established levels from before the break up.
> 
> Time element, good time to do it considering SPI usually starts chopping around this time as you can see at the bottom, 11:30am.  Meaning you wont get many sweeps against you so can control your risk well.  About the only way you can make money in that junk, considering you have clear points to fade and clear (tight) stops.




good stuff, you trade within the junk..lots of money to be made within the middle bar..
where as i hope to be out by 11.00am..and look for a trade after 2.00pm..
it all makes a traders market
ac


----------



## jersey10

MRC & Co said:


> Here is what I mean.  3 tick stops and even uptick after buying 16s and downtick if buying 24s, once in a position to get the momentum going your way.  Entry with limits already placed on the price levels.  Exits discretionary for me, usually to the midpoint so 20s.
> 
> Would have had 6 profitable trades if you took entries once it came back into the range after initially breaking.  Fading the already established levels from before the break up.
> 
> Time element, good time to do it considering SPI usually starts chopping around this time as you can see at the bottom, 11:30am.  Meaning you wont get many sweeps against you so can control your risk well.  About the only way you can make money in that junk, considering you have clear points to fade and clear (tight) stops.




2 questions from me MRC.

At what stage do you decide those levels are 'safe' enough to use them as reference points?

When you say 3 tick stop and even uptick after buying does that mean you move your stop to break even as soon as price moves above that level?  i.e. you place a limit buy at 16 price drops to 14 then moves through to 17 as soon as it hits 17 you get ur stop to 16??


----------



## MRC & Co

Jersey, I will decide the level is safe only if the volume appears to be drying up and it feels as though we are moving into 'lunch' price action.  Which is the vast majority of the time, *choppy and slow* and you can see this in the order book or on the chart, whether that be slowly chopping in a certain direction, or just chopping sideways, as it was today.  A level also has to be hit at least 2-3 times before I will try fade it.  

By uptick after buying or downtick after selling, I mean if you buy 16s, to hit 17s at market with a contract or two to try get other traders feeling confident fading that level also.  Personally, I would almost rather it break the level by a tick or two (as it did at the top of the range), and then when it comes back to 24s, I will try hit (sell at market) 23s with another couple contracts.


----------



## jersey10

MRC & Co said:


> Jersey, I will decide the level is safe only if the volume appears to be drying up and it feels as though we are moving into 'lunch' price action.  Which is the vast majority of the time, *choppy and slow* and you can see this in the order book or on the chart, whether that be slowly chopping in a certain direction, or just chopping sideways, as it was today.  A level also has to be hit at least 2-3 times before I will try fade it.
> 
> By uptick after buying or downtick after selling, I mean if you buy 16s, to hit 17s at market with a contract or two to try get other traders feeling confident fading that level also.  Personally, I would almost rather it break the level by a tick or two (as it did at the top of the range), and then when it comes back to 24s, I will try hit (sell at market) 23s with another couple contracts.




ah gotya.  great posts MRC, cheers.


----------



## MRC & Co

jersey10 said:


> ah gotya.  great posts MRC, cheers.




No problemos Jersey.

Just one thing to think about, no science here, just complete discretion and trying things out which you won't normally read about in a book.


----------



## Bobby

MRC & Co said:


> By uptick after buying or downtick after selling, I mean if you buy 16s, to hit 17s at market with a contract or two to try get other traders feeling confident fading that level also.  Personally, I would almost rather it break the level by a tick or two (as it did at the top of the range), and then when it comes back to 24s, I will try hit (sell at market) 23s with another couple contracts.




MRC , I'm not sure about the above , want to explain ?
The bit about influencing other traders  especially ,  how many contracts are you talking about


----------



## acouch

good morning all
today's road map
have a great day and good trades
ac


----------



## MRC & Co

Bobby said:


> MRC , I'm not sure about the above , want to explain ?
> The bit about influencing other traders  especially ,  how many contracts are you talking about




Not many.  

Just upticking or downticking 1 lots can give an impression, I will only uptick or downtick with a few contracts, 4-5 max.


----------



## rossw

appreciate your insights mrc
cheers


----------



## Phillip

Hi all,
Market is in an intersting conundrum for a position trader like myself. I am defiitely not a buyer here, perhaps I should change my strategy to trend trading? Unsure atm, but she does look extremely overbought, perhaps 1-4 day pullback will provide a buying opportunity?

Apart from that according to my analysis we have had exactly 60 calendar days from the Jan 09 hi to the 06/03 low... 06/04/09 will be 90 calendar days from the Jan 09 hi. I will be looking for the market to trade into a negative divergence, which will give by my benchmarks a bonafide shorting signal. That RSI @ 78 is simply unsustainable. But more than happy to change strategy to a more trend trading methodology. The blue rectangle signifies the time element on when a shorting opportunity shall arise. So many outcomes here, I am glad I am sitting on the fence for now.

Any thoughts?

P.S I am not a daytrader.

Regards, Phillip.


----------



## MRC & Co

Phillip said:


> Any thoughts?




My thoughts, just based on pure price action alone, from this moment, would be a high of around 3800s.

That being said, a lot depends on the overseas markets, and particularly the outcome of the RIO deal, if it is approved, the miners could, should and probably will, do some serious business and push the market even higher.  Then again, buy the rumour, sell the fact?  Does happen and is something that has to be watched, but from the reaction of the ACCC approval even though they were not really a concern, I would say an approval will cause a buy situation and a further rally.

Will have to wait and see who comes in to alter things day by day, which is one reason I HATE EOD trading these days, as you take a view which can all change at any instant and you get massive slippage from gapping, not dynamic and not a live environment.


----------



## acouch

morning all
today;s road map
have a great day nad good trades
ac


----------



## Bobby

MRC & Co said:


> I HATE EOD trading these days, as you take a view which can all change at any instant and you get massive slippage from gapping, not dynamic and not a live environment.




Well said !


----------



## acouch

morning all,
today's road map
have a great day and good trades
ac


----------



## Trembling Hand

Rope a big bloody dope today hey??

Never stand in front of the Boyz doin biznesssssss...  Especially their quarter end markup.


----------



## Mr J

> Rope a big bloody dope today hey??




No idea what you mean, but it sounds like it wasn't a great trading day. There was some profit to be had.


----------



## acouch

seeing this is a new road map,
this is how it went today..
enjoy your evening
ac


----------



## MRC & Co

Trembling Hand said:


> Rope a big bloody dope today hey??
> 
> Never stand in front of the Boyz doin biznesssssss...  Especially their quarter end markup.




L O L

A very interesting day.  

At least volatility has been back lately and the higher the SPI can rally, the better for us


----------



## CanOz

MRC & Co said:


> L O L
> 
> A very interesting day.
> 
> At least volatility has been back lately and the higher the SPI can rally, the better for us




Mr.C - do you or anyone else trade the DAX or the NQ, ES, etc. using the same scalping methods? 

Cheers,


CanOz


----------



## Trembling Hand

CanOz said:


> Mr.C - do you or anyone else trade the DAX or the NQ, ES, etc. using the same scalping methods?




CanOz some of the commodities are great for tape reading. I like the GC. I struggle with something like the ES as its so thick I find it hard to get a read. But I'm not surprised I have spent about 0.00001 % of my time looking at it.


----------



## MRC & Co

Trembling Hand said:


> CanOz some of the commodities are great for tape reading. I like the GC. I struggle with something like the ES as its so thick I find it hard to get a read. But I'm not surprised I have spent about 0.00001 % of my time looking at it.




Exactly TH.

All are tradable with the same methods (I don't trade them, but I know of guys who trade the ES and DAX with the same style), but of course, you would have to trade each slightly different depending on the individual market.  I.e. you can run positions further on the HSI, as opposed to SPI.  One has clear breakouts, the other doesn't and each have differening ways they open, lunch periods, close etc.


----------



## CanOz

MRC & Co said:


> Exactly TH.
> 
> All are tradable with the same methods (I don't trade them, but I know of guys who trade the ES and DAX with the same style), but of course, you would have to trade each slightly different depending on the individual market.  I.e. you can run positions further on the HSI, as opposed to SPI.  One has clear breakouts, the other doesn't and each have differening ways they open, lunch periods, close etc.




Thanks fellas,

I think i should fire up my sim account again on IB and have a go at getting some screen time etc.

I wonder about ETFs as well, maybe something like QQQQ would be of value to look at. Although its more expensive to trade than the futs yes?

Still should only be 6.0 each way.

Just interested in something to help train my eyes for the things to look for while the evenings are available for me.

CanOz


----------



## acouch

Good morning all
today's road map
have a great day and good trades
ac


----------



## Mr J

Opinions on the SPI during lunchtime?


----------



## skc

My punt is that it will stay below acouch's Line in Sand (~3598) - right on it as we speak...


----------



## Trembling Hand

skc said:


> My punt is that it will stay below acouch's Line in Sand (~3598) - right on it as we speak...




Ya reckon. we could easily see a rotation up to 3617


----------



## skc

Are we talking about by end of day or just during lunch time? I was clearly referring to lunch time only - and I have just finished my lunch 

I was simply guessing base on that the second leg of the trend (from 3573 an hour ago) has gone the same distance as the first one (from 3554 to 3586), and that larger sell orders are popping up on the DOM. Actually, that would put it at 3605, just above the LIS.

Mr J - You look like you are new to this forum. Now you know who to listen to when it comes to SPI...


----------



## Mr J

I actually just meant reguar activity during lunchtime. I've heard markets tend to slow down and pick up mid afternoon. I've been trading the ES during US hours so far (I love the liquidity), but I'm hoping that I can do something with the SPI so I can keep more regular hours.



> Mr J - You look like you are new to this forum. Now you know who to listen to when it comes to SPI...




New to trading as well.


----------



## rapt88

acouch said:


> Good morning all
> today's road map
> have a great day and good trades
> ac




Hi acouch,

I would like to thank you for your ongoing postings of your ML charts.  It is because of these that I have revisited ML (having so quickly dismissed it as a valid methodology too many years ago).  I find Tim Morge's sites are well worth the visit.

Looking at my attached charts, seeing EPs 1 and 2, I find it hard not to get excited by EPs 3 and 4.







I would be pleased to hear your view and comment on this and the broader picture.

Rapt88


----------



## acouch

rapt88 said:


> Hi acouch,
> 
> I would like to thank you for your ongoing postings of your ML charts.  It is because of these that I have revisited ML (having so quickly dismissed it as a valid methodology too many years ago).  I find Tim Morge's sites are well worth the visit.
> 
> Looking at my attached charts, seeing EPs 1 and 2, I find it hard not to get excited by EPs 3 and 4.
> 
> View attachment 29083
> 
> 
> View attachment 29084
> 
> 
> I would be pleased to hear your view and comment on this and the broader picture.
> 
> Rapt88




very good charts rapt88
and as you can see where the ML's cross you have confluence..very strong support/resistance..as with the road map..
i am glad that i have been of some help to jog your memory with the Andrews..a simple tool, but worth its weight in gold..

great trades
ac


----------



## acouch

rapt88 said:


> Hi acouch,
> 
> I would like to thank you for your ongoing postings of your ML charts.  It is because of these that I have revisited ML (having so quickly dismissed it as a valid methodology too many years ago).  I find Tim Morge's sites are well worth the visit.
> 
> Looking at my attached charts, seeing EPs 1 and 2, I find it hard not to get excited by EPs 3 and 4.
> 
> View attachment 29083
> 
> 
> View attachment 29084
> 
> 
> I would be pleased to hear your view and comment on this and the broader picture.
> 
> Rapt88




as you can see by this eod chart for spi..
the first chart posted here on this was the 20th may 2008...
the ML's in action..not very clear i am afraid as it is metastock..and doesnt seem to transfer well
ac


----------



## rapt88

acouch said:


> as you can see by this eod chart for spi..
> the first chart posted here on this was the 20th may 2008...
> the ML's in action..not very clear i am afraid as it is metastock..and doesnt seem to transfer well
> ac




Thanks acouch

Rapt88


----------



## acouch

eod road map..
ac


----------



## acouch

good morning all
today;s road map
have a great day, and good trades
ac


----------



## Mr J

acouch, have you explained your road map somewhere in this thread? It looks interesting, but I'm not sure what's going on there.


----------



## acouch

Mr J said:


> acouch, have you explained your road map somewhere in this thread? It looks interesting, but I'm not sure what's going on there.




Yes numerous times...

i see you havn't read back through ?

above the red line you are long, below you are short..all nos are strong support/resistance..
is basically it..but you can go back and read the previous post..also a learning curve..

there is no easy way to learn you have to do the hard yards, and follow the  the learning road...and i am sure you will find it a wonderful experience as most traders have..

www,medianline.com.au

hope this is of some help to get you on your way
ac


----------



## CanOz

acouch said:


> www,medianline.com.au
> 
> hope this is of some help to get you on your way
> ac





Hey Sofa, your link needs some work mate.

CanOz


----------



## Mr J

acouch said:


> i see you havn't read back through ?
> 
> above the red line you are long, below you are short..all nos are strong support/resistance..
> is basically it..but you can go back and read the previous post..also a learning curve..
> 
> there is no easy way to learn you have to do the hard yards, and follow the  the learning road...and i am sure you will find it a wonderful experience as most traders have..




I thought I'd ask before skimming through a few dozen pages. So it is as simple as it looks (someone said line in the sand, and the numbers would seem to be S/R).

Easy way to learn, for trading or this ML method? I'm not looking for a system to follow for easy profits, I just like to read about different methods as there's often something to learn.


----------



## nomore4s

CanOz said:


> Hey Sofa




rotflmao


----------



## acouch

Mr J said:


> I thought I'd ask before skimming through a few dozen pages. So it is as simple as it looks (someone said line in the sand, and the numbers would seem to be S/R).
> 
> Easy way to learn, for trading or this ML method? I'm not looking for a system to follow for easy profits, I just like to read about different methods as there's often something to learn.




Tim Morge was the one that has bought Dr.Andrews use of the Medianline to the fore,
Tim has all the original work of Dr.Andrews, and like most of us from those early days in Tim's forum have made our own improvement to a very simple tool, and much overlooked..simple is best...
and the best thing is that anyone can use it, as it is a standard tool on most software packages

The Medianline has a 80% hit rate., so only if you took the trade to that you would make a lot of money, without waiting for the reaction...

As Dr.Andrews worked on the Newton theory..

have a great day

ac

http://siteground219.com/~marketge/

http://www.medianline.com/home.html


----------



## acouch

good morning all
today's road map
have a great day and good trades
ac


----------



## MRC & Co

acouch said:


> The Medianline has a 80% hit rate., so only if you took the trade to that you would make a lot of money, without waiting for the reaction...




So you take a tick and when it breaks through the median line you loose 5?  How do you trade it, i.e. how far behind the median line is your stop and when do you take profits?

If you take a tick winner to a 5 tick looser, you can nearly guarantee an 80% win rate.  

Ends up the same.

Honestly, most trading is about the entry and exit, nothing can guarantee profits and nothing is easy, it takes a lot of hours practicing, as in full-time for years.  Like you can't be a great Rugby, boxer or soccer player or whatever with a few weeks full-time practice, nor can you be a great trader.


----------



## James Austin

MRC & Co said:


> nothing can guarantee profits and nothing is easy, it takes a lot of hours practicing, as in full-time for years.  Like you can't be a great Rugby, boxer or soccer player or whatever with a few weeks full-time practice, nor can you be a great trader.





ahhhh 

no magical forumlas, hey MRC!

just "_finding your own way_" . . . . and only time can do it, lots of it


----------



## MRC & Co

James Austin said:


> ahhhh
> 
> no magical forumlas, hey MRC!
> 
> just "_finding your own way_" . . . . and only time can do it, lots of it




That's right James.

I know, you know it!


----------



## Mr J

Only just realised it's Friday. Is today typical for Friday arvo for the SPI?



> Honestly, most trading is about the entry and exit, nothing can guarantee profits and nothing is easy




Like any system, the ML system will still require you to be able to interpret the price action in real-time. Like many systems, I'd say the ML system just gives points of interest for the trader to trade around.



> How do you trade it, i.e. how far behind the median line is your stop and when do you take profits?




Talking about stops, I've come to the conclusion of placing extremely tight stops (say two points for the SPI, two ticks for the ES). While it doesn't fit with the traditional strategy of placing it beyond the swing, I've found that good trades will usually move your way strong, and much of the time it does hesitate it just means it didn't end up being a good entry (chop, reversal, slow etc). The smaller stops also allow for a far cheaper re-entry if needed. A little off topic .


----------



## acouch

MRC & Co said:


> So you take a tick and when it breaks through the median line you loose 5?  How do you trade it, i.e. how far behind the median line is your stop and when do you take profits?
> 
> If you take a tick winner to a 5 tick looser, you can nearly guarantee an 80% win rate.
> 
> Ends up the same.
> 
> Honestly, most trading is about the entry and exit, nothing can guarantee profits and nothing is easy, it takes a lot of hours practicing, as in full-time for years.  Like you can't be a great Rugby, boxer or soccer player or whatever with a few weeks full-time practice, nor can you be a great trader.





hopefully you are not looking to enter at the medianline..that is where you would take your profit..as you would have should have entered at the lower ml eg: start of the move..or a retest of the lower ML..if looking for a long..reverse if looking to short..and stop would be under the retest..

ac


----------



## acouch

good morning all
Monday;s road map
have a great weekend, and take care
ac


----------



## acouch

good morning all
today's road map
have a great day and good trades
ac


----------



## acouch

eod road map 
how it has progressed during the day..
have  great evening 
ac


----------



## Phillip

Phillip said:


> Hi all,
> Market is in an intersting conundrum for a position trader like myself. I am defiitely not a buyer here, perhaps I should change my strategy to trend trading? Unsure atm, but she does look extremely overbought, perhaps 1-4 day pullback will provide a buying opportunity?
> 
> Apart from that according to my analysis we have had exactly 60 calendar days from the Jan 09 hi to the 06/03 low... 06/04/09 will be 90 calendar days from the Jan 09 hi. I will be looking for the market to trade into a negative divergence, which will give by my benchmarks a bonafide shorting signal. That RSI @ 78 is simply unsustainable. But more than happy to change strategy to a more trend trading methodology. The blue rectangle signifies the time element on when a shorting opportunity shall arise. So many outcomes here, I am glad I am sitting on the fence for now.
> 
> Any thoughts?
> 
> P.S I am not a daytrader.
> 
> Regards, Phillip.




Nailed it to the day.


----------



## acouch

good morning all
today's road map
have a great day, and good trades
ac


----------



## MRC & Co

acouch said:


> hopefully you are not looking to enter at the medianline..that is where you would take your profit..as you would have should have entered at the lower ml eg: start of the move..or a retest of the lower ML..if looking for a long..reverse if looking to short..and stop would be under the retest..
> 
> ac




Cheers AC.


----------



## acouch

good morning all
today's road map
have a great day, and good trades

Hope you all have a Safe and Happy Easter,

ac


----------



## Mr J

acouch, I've occasionally been drawing the pitchforks and seeing how the market responds, and it does seem to be quite good. Any idea how widely are these are used?


----------



## Bobby

*What a joke it is trying to trade as i type !*
SPI is frozen at 3722-3723 for ages as the Dow powers up , yea I can do the arb thing but stuff this incompetence


----------



## acouch

Bobby said:


> *What a joke it is trying to trade as i type !*
> SPI is frozen at 3722-3723 for ages as the Dow powers up , yea I can do the arb thing but stuff this incompetence




sycom closed at 1200am for Easter
ac


----------



## acouch

Mr J said:


> acouch, I've occasionally been drawing the pitchforks and seeing how the market responds, and it does seem to be quite good. Any idea how widely are these are used?




Morning Mr J

a simple but forgotten tool, but becoming more widely used of late..
learn to master it, you will do well
take care
ac


----------



## acouch

Phillip said:


> Nailed it to the day.




hi Phillip
i am more interested in the 360cd's from the 19th May 2008
comes in on the 14th May 2009
we will see what the trading gods decide
ac


----------



## sails

acouch said:


> hi Phillip
> i am more interested in the 360cd's from the 19th May 2008
> comes in on the 14th May 2009
> we will see what the trading gods decide
> ac




What methods do you use for your time analysis, acouch?  Are you into the complex stuff like planetary lineups or is it pretty much just based on calendar day counts?


----------



## acouch

sails said:


> What methods do you use for your time analysis, acouch?  Are you into the complex stuff like planetary lineups or is it pretty much just based on calendar day counts?




Morning sails,

no only cd's and td's but mainly cd's, i leave the planetary stuff for others 
ac


----------



## sails

acouch said:


> Morning sails,
> 
> no only cd's and td's but mainly cd's, i leave the planetary stuff for others
> ac




Thanks, ac 
I found fairly simple calendar and trading day counts used to work quite well - as well as some of the squares (eg 90, 144, 256, etc) from major highs/lows.  Must get some time charts running again...


----------



## Mr J

acouch said:


> Morning Mr J
> 
> a simple but forgotten tool, but becoming more widely used of late..
> learn to master it, you will do well
> take care
> ac




I like it and it suits my trading strategy. I'm not doing anything complicated with it, just using the lines as possible support and resistance, potential profit targets etc.


----------



## Mr J

Median line as a profit target kept me in two trades that I otherwise would've exited much earlier.  22.5 points (90 ticks) per ES contract. Results-oriented I know, but the two trades were _perfect_. I don't expect to see this often.


----------



## acouch

Mr J said:


> Median line as a profit target kept me in two trades that I otherwise would've exited much earlier.  22.5 points (90 ticks) per ES contract. Results-oriented I know, but the two trades were _perfect_. I don't expect to see this often.




well done,

the median line has a 80% hit rate, so you should see it quite a bit 

enjoy your day
ac


----------



## Mr J

Perfect as in I captured virtually all of each move, and both were reasonably large (for me). Two times my weekly profit target (as an average) as well.



> the median line has a 80% hit rate




I don't doubt it, as the vast majority of the time I throw a pitchfork on something, it hits the median.


----------



## acouch

good morning all
today's road amp
have a great day and good trades
ac


----------



## Joolean

Hi ac,

I see your charts are on a 10 minute timeframe but are the median lines calculated on that timeframe or on a higher one?

Cheers,
Jules.


----------



## acouch

Joolean said:


> Hi ac,
> 
> I see your charts are on a 10 minute timeframe but are the median lines calculated on that timeframe or on a higher one?
> 
> Cheers,
> Jules.




Hi Jules

road map is done on a 10min chart..

ac


----------



## James Austin

Mr J said:


> Median line as a profit target kept me in two trades that I otherwise would've exited much earlier.





Mr J

thanks to AC i have also become an ML devotee. It's great stuff in my view.

and yes, just as you say, it helps to keep me in trades that I might otherwise close, then wish I hadn't.

JA


----------



## Mr J

acouch, have you seen anything or have an opinion about the distribution of the 20% that fail to reach the median?


----------



## acouch

Mr J said:


> acouch, have you seen anything or have an opinion about the distribution of the 20% that fail to reach the median?




no, as the market is a living thing, to get 80% right you are doing ok, that is for sure..
if you are in wrong get out..it is as simple as that 
have a great day
ac


----------



## acouch

good morning all
today's road map
have a great day and good trades
ac


----------



## acouch

example of a perfect set up for ML's
ac


----------



## Mr J

acouch said:


> no, as the market is a living thing, to get 80% right you are doing ok, that is for sure..
> if you are in wrong get out..it is as simple as that
> have a great day
> ac




No, I mean if there has been any study on whether the 20% failures (to reach the median) are randomly distributed, or whether they might be more likely to fail if against the trend, if there is no trend, if a large retracement is needed etc. The price might reach the median 80% of the time, but that doesn't mean that is the case for all situations. Some may be better than others? It's not that significant, I'm just curious.


----------



## Bobby

Gee I must be missing something, I trade the SPI everyday and  just mimic the Cash direction  , usually at a premium most times . 
Yes there are extensions that I reverse on , and overplays as well


----------



## acouch

good morning all
today's road map
have a great day and good trades
ac


----------



## skc

Bobby said:


> Gee I must be missing something, I trade the SPI everyday and  just mimic the Cash direction  , usually at a premium most times .
> Yes there are extensions that I reverse on , and overplays as well




Bobby, can you elaborate on this a little bit? My understanding is that the SPI leads the cash market in Australia. For example yesterday when the Chinese GDP figures were out, the SPI fell a lot faster than the XJO.

Do you watch the cash as in XJO, or the major components within it?

Do you use an XJO chart for direction? If so, how's that different to watching the SPI chart instead?

thanks


----------



## Bobby

skc said:


> Bobby, can you elaborate on this a little bit? My understanding is that the SPI leads the cash market in Australia. For example yesterday when the Chinese GDP figures were out, the SPI fell a lot faster than the XJO.
> 
> Do you watch the cash as in XJO, or the major components within it?
> 
> Do you use an XJO chart for direction? If so, how's that different to watching the SPI chart instead?
> 
> thanks




Hi SKC,
Sorry to get back so late .
Yes I do agree the SPI leads the cash , all I do is trade off what the cash is doing , I watch this site    http://www.bellpotter.com.au/market_activity/ 
as well as the XJO & SPI one minute chart for signals to enter & exit all day long .
I'm jumping in & out running up to 5 contracts at a time , dropping & adding these at a whim , flipping direction often .
All done without any stops


----------



## Cartman

Bobby said:


> Hi SKC,
> Sorry to get back so late .
> Yes I do agree the SPI leads the cash , all I do is trade off what the cash is doing , I watch this site    http://www.bellpotter.com.au/market_activity/
> as well as the XJO & SPI one minute chart for signals to enter & exit all day long .
> I'm jumping in & out running up to 5 contracts at a time , dropping & adding these at a whim , flipping direction often .
> All done without any stops




stops are way over rated i agree Bob !!


----------



## Bobby

Cartman said:


> stops are way over rated i agree Bob !!




Yep they take the edge off  
Also I can't set them until after the trade is entered , that tiny bit of time is critical for hitting the close out button if need be .


----------



## MRC & Co

Neither futures or cash lead really, sometimes it's one, other times it's the other.

I personally would never trade just off cash, but if it's approaching a level (say resistance) and then cash moves away (down) after hitting that level, then it's probably being defended and therefore, the futures probably won't be able to be used to push it through.  But you have to be fast.  Other than that or if a big cash level is broken (like when we came down through 3817 or 18 today, signalling a false break of the previous cash high back in January), then I personally don't find cash overly useful.  Only use it for levels, or sometimes to confirm what the stocks are doing if the big ones are moving.

My


----------



## acouch

good morning all
Monday's road map
have a great weekend and take care
ac


----------



## Broadway

I think the biggest influences on the spi are regional (Asian).
Sometimes hints about trends can come from Japanese Government Bonds. (JGB).
JGB showed bullish price action and volume early on Friday and when it broke north at around 1130am, I figured Asia would head south and the SPI would have to follow.


----------



## MRC & Co

Interesting Broadway, I know of a few who trade JGBs and SPI, and they have never picked up a correlation they can trade off that I know of, but I will look into it.

Cheers for the comment.


----------



## Broadway

I noticed at times the JGB is inverted to the N225, and its relatives - n225m, topx and sgxnk.(which I guess is stating something obvious to bond traders).

And if the N225 has a big influence over the entire Asia region, then A=B=C.

I think a mathematical correlation would prove to be poor because bond moves often happen before index moves. I  think bond traders are a slightly more experienced crowd. But if any bonds start moving and trending, I wouldnt be making a trade against the bond move.

The real bearishness of Friday actually started at 5-6am Friday when the ES made a double top at HOD with alot of volume on stocks and ETFs.          

In fact,Ive been seeing alot of volume coming into peaks for most of last week in Europe and the US. It's just that surprise good earnings results keep bumping up the market. I think if this coming week isnt bearish, then the permabears will finally give up and cover.

FAZ has become one of the top 10 traded ETFs in the US recently.(Bear financial ETF).
It has either exploded in popularity just last week or the next leg down could be significant from the volume coming in.


----------



## MRC & Co

All good comments Broadway and I agree.

Thanks.


----------



## CanOz

MRC & Co said:


> All good comments Broadway and I agree.
> 
> Thanks.




Agree as well, some valuable observations Broadway. I've been watching SKF, the Ultrashort Financial ETF, maybe i'll post a chart tomorrow, but there has been dip buying all last week.

Got stopped out of all US shorts mid week, but have a few more to post for Monday. The thing is, there are not really any good short patterns, only signals with massively overbought indicators. Hardly anything to be considered probable. 

My only worry, and this may sound amateurish, is when this decline starts, it could be a snap drop and difficult to jump on board unless one is prepared to load up on some shorts before hand. Hope that makes sense.

Cheers,


CanOz


----------



## CanOz

After readng my last post this morning it seems a bit off topic, sorry SPI traders....too much wine i think..

Good trades!

CanOz


----------



## acouch

for those interested in Medianline's
this says it all..77 pages worth printing out..
you will have to join the forum though to gain access 
have a great day
ac

http://www.marketgeometry.com/forum/Fisher.pdf


----------



## Mr J

Thanks, I'll take a look at it.

I'm going to watch the SPI this week to see whether the better hours (as opposed to trading the SPY during US hours) are worth it. I ruled it out completely a couple of weeks ago due to the spread, but now I'm trading longer timeframes (the equivalent of say a 5 minute chart) I'm hoping it won't be so bad.


----------



## James Austin

acouch said:


> for those interested in Medianline's
> this says it all..77 pages worth printing out..





excellent paper AC, well researched and crystal clear.
thanks for sharing
JA


----------



## Mr J

acouche, you'll like these. The median lines work perfectly with my strategy since I aim to ride waves, and it helps identify where the pivots may take place. It obviously played out very well this morning. Shame they were only paper trades (testing the SPI waters). I'd still have made those two trades without the medians, but the medians allowed me for greater confidence of where the price would likely end up, and therefore better exits.

I didn't bother with the rest as I felt the range was too small for the SPI's relative lack of liquidity.


----------



## acouch

Mr J said:


> acouche, you'll like these. The median lines work perfectly with my strategy since I aim to ride waves, and it helps identify where the pivots may take place. It obviously played out very well this morning. Shame they were only paper trades (testing the SPI waters). I'd still have made those two trades without the medians, but the medians allowed me for greater confidence of where the price would likely end up, and therefore better exits.
> 
> I didn't bother with the rest as I felt the range was too small for the SPI's relative lack of liquidity.




Very nice Mr J, glad you are finding them of some use...
ac


----------



## acouch

James Austin said:


> excellent paper AC, well researched and crystal clear.
> thanks for sharing
> JA




yes JA...sorry about not being 77 pages..when i had a look it was only 27 pages..
but the main thing you got some tips from it 
it looks like most of it was taken from the DR.Andrews paper on Action/Reaction..


ac


----------



## James Austin

acouch said:


> yes JA...sorry about not being 77 pages..when i had a look it was only 27 pages..
> but the main thing you got some tips from it
> it looks like most of it was taken from the DR.Andrews paper on Action/Reaction..
> 
> ac





i managed to summarise the entire doc. in just 2 charts in a couple of hours, 
poor Greg, it would have taken him ages to put all that together.

good stuff though, reading the doc sure did emphasise the 80% rule, plus the "revisits" and 90% stat are good to know.

the % probs. backed up by solid research, sitting in front of me as I trade, . . . very handy.

JA


----------



## Edwood

acouch said:


> for those interested in Medianline's
> this says it all..77 pages worth printing out..
> you will have to join the forum though to gain access
> have a great day
> ac
> 
> http://www.marketgeometry.com/forum/Fisher.pdf




ta vm for the link ac - appreciated.  Helpful to see the stats from page 26+....

Ed


----------



## Mr J

> but the main thing you got some tips from it




Yes. I'm always interested in reading about different approaches, it's a good way to learn and refine our own strategies. It's interesting to see how much my own strategy has changed since I started, despite it keeping the same principles.


----------



## acouch

good morning all
today's road map
have a great day and good trades
ac


----------



## acouch

good morning all
today's road map
have a great day, and good trades
ac


----------



## Broadway

Last night's rally may have been to retest the long term trendline on the ES.

One possibility is back down in the next 24-48 hours.

Maybe some more rumours about the bank stress tests will help this.


----------



## skc

Thanks acouch for your daily updates. I noticed that the horizontal lines have been a lot closer together recently. Any comments on that?


----------



## acouch

skc said:


> Thanks acouch for your daily updates. I noticed that the horizontal lines have been a lot closer together recently. Any comments on that?




yes, skc,
it was the way price was on setting up the chart at the beginning of the contract..nos around 12 points apart..
i tried to stretch..but it wasn't going to happen..
that's how the chart has fallen this contract..
ac

ps i have another one set up atm..will see if it is a better fit..
if so will start posting that one..it is around 20 points..but takes a while to checkout to see all is valid


----------



## acouch

see how it goes..target 3723..

stop under lod

ac


----------



## acouch

acouch said:


> see how it goes..target 3723..
> 
> stop under lod
> 
> ac




that was a short trip


----------



## Mr J

I'm still waiting for the short to hit the median. It's going to be at least 40-50 points if it does, but then it has been a noisy drop.


----------



## Mr J

Took 5 hours, but finally got there. And to think that a couple of weeks ago I was focusing trades that lasted minutes.


----------



## acouch

good morning all
today's road map
have a great day and good trades
ac


----------



## beamstas

Acouch
Could you please explain this road map to me? 

Brad


----------



## nomore4s

beamstas said:


> Acouch
> Could you please explain this road map to me?
> 
> Brad




Brad its been explained before -just read through the thread.


----------



## Mr J

Some nice waves today.


----------



## acouch

good morning all
today's road map
have a great day and good trades
ac


----------



## acouch

good morning all
Monday's road map
have a great weekend and take care
ac


----------



## Mr J

Does anyone have any comments about SPI liquidity? I'm usually seeing just 5-10 contracts on offer either side of the one point spread. And usually 60-120 either side up to 5 points away. Does this accurately represent the offers? What kind of fills for limit orders? Most of my trading experience has been on the ES where a smaller trader will not run into issues.


----------



## MRC & Co

Mr J said:


> Does anyone have any comments about SPI liquidity? I'm usually seeing just 5-10 contracts on offer either side of the one point spread. And usually 60-120 either side up to 5 points away. Does this accurately represent the offers? What kind of fills for limit orders? Most of my trading experience has been on the ES where a smaller trader will not run into issues.




The SPI DOM is complete and utter BS at the moment.

There is an algo bot in there which controls it these days, performing, NON-STOP IMHO illegal moves, he stacks orders and spoofs it up or down and pulls orders all day long, how he gets away with this.............?  

One example, his been doing this a lot lately, he will want to sell, but he wants the bids ALL to himself.  So what does he do?  He thins the hell out of the asks, pulls them and creates a 2 tick spread and then just sweeps down and takes all the bids himself.  This way, traders have to risk going short with size and not being able to get out, without paying up 4-5 levels.


----------



## Trembling Hand

MRC & Co said:


> The SPI DOM is complete and utter BS at the moment.



 yep its a lot of fun now


----------



## MRC & Co

Trembling Hand said:


> yep its a lot of fun now




Yeh, reckon you just have to work out what his trying to do, bite the bullet and hold on.

A couple of days now, I have hit 10 short, he has pulled the asks, and there was like a 1 lot 3 ticks away, above that a 3 lot and above that like a 5 lot.  Rediculous market to have to pay up 6 levels to get out of a 10 lot........WTF!!!!

That being said, his made me a far more proficient chart reader!


----------



## Naked shorts

Mr J said:


> Does this accurately represent the offers? What kind of fills for limit orders?




No because there are orders that are sitting in the order platforms of market participants. Theses orders wont go to market until the price is there. That way, they aren't visible to everyone.



MRC & Co said:


> One example, his been doing this a lot lately, he will want to sell, but he wants the bids ALL to himself.  So what does he do?  He thins the hell out of the asks, pulls them and creates a 2 tick spread and then just sweeps down and takes all the bids himself.  This way, traders have to risk going short with size and not being able to get out, without paying up 4-5 levels.




How can he thin out the asks? Can you put up a video showing this move?


----------



## MRC & Co

Naked shorts said:


> How can he thin out the asks? Can you put up a video showing this move?




He can, because he is a lot of the orders sitting in the book, which are nearly all fake.  Sorry, Naked, don't record so can't show any video.  Just watch the SPI DOM, you will see it no doubt.

Mr J, on that 60-120 lots sitting away from market, this is a trick done IMO to gaugue who wants to do what.  If it's sitting on the bid, someone wants to see if there is a seller there, if there is, he will trade towards this level to take the fill.


----------



## sails

MRC & Co said:


> Yeh, reckon you just have to work out what his trying to do, bite the bullet and hold on.
> 
> A couple of days now, I have hit 10 short, he has pulled the asks, and there was like a 1 lot 3 ticks away, above that a 3 lot and above that like a 5 lot.  Rediculous market to have to pay up 6 levels to get out of a 10 lot........WTF!!!!
> 
> That being said, his made me a far more proficient chart reader!




I have noticed this happening and the market usually doesn't seem go back into the thin side, at least not for a prolonged run.  If I wanting to go long and see extreme thinness on the offer, I am more likely to reconsider the trade.  But then, if he reads ASF, he might change his tactics now. 

I have found SPI DOM very difficult to read. You think you've got something useful, and suddenly it's all changed.   Found some threads at ET on DOM, but it doesn't seem to work that well in the SPI.


----------



## MRC & Co

sails said:


> I have noticed this happening and the market usually doesn't seem go back into the thin side, at least not for a prolonged run.  If I wanting to go long and see extreme thinness on the offer, I am more likely to reconsider the trade.  But then, if he reads ASF, he might change his tactics now.
> 
> I have found SPI DOM very difficult to read. You think you've got something useful, and suddenly it's all changed.   Found some threads at ET on DOM, but it doesn't seem to work that well in the SPI.




Jesus, you must have spent a while at ET to find some information!    ha ha.  That place is off the planet!

There is a little over at Traders Laboratory also on DOM (or tape reading).  It's more about looking for big size coming in at particular levels.  Half the time these days, they will just sweep it through the level on the SPI though, so if your not on it already, it's near impossible to get on.


----------



## Mr J

I'm not sure I'm glad I asked. I guess I'll have to find out for myself how it's going to affect my trading.



> A couple of days now, I have hit 10 short, he has pulled the asks, and there was like a 1 lot 3 ticks away, above that a 3 lot and above that like a 5 lot. Rediculous market to have to pay up 6 levels to get out of a 10 lot........WTF!!!!






I thought all I'd have to put up with is maybe a 2 point spread. I don't understand any of this very well, but it sounds like this could completely screw a trade. How much does it affect your efficiency?


----------



## MRC & Co

Mr J said:


> I thought all I'd have to put up with is maybe a 2 point spread. I don't understand any of this very well, but it sounds like this could completely screw a trade. How much does it affect your efficiency?




If your position trading, it won't make much of a difference.  It only will to scalpers who are trying to trade the noise.

How does it affect my efficiency?  Funnily enough, it's forced me to be more efficient!


----------



## Mr J

Not a scalper, but I keep it intraday.


----------



## MRC & Co

Mr J said:


> Not a scalper, but I keep it intraday.




Ah, the noise won't matter to you then, but yes, liquidity is not the best.  You will suffer slippage at times with any kind of size.


----------



## sails

MRC & Co said:


> Jesus, you must have spent a while at ET to find some information!    ha ha.  That place is off the planet!
> 
> There is a little over at Traders Laboratory also on DOM (or tape reading).  It's more about looking for big size coming in at particular levels.  Half the time these days, they will just sweep it through the level on the SPI though, so if your not on it already, it's near impossible to get on.




LOL - I didn't spend that long at all to find it. I think I followed a link someone posted on ASF to T2W and a link from there to the relevent ET threads.  More like a paper trail. It took far more time to go through the ET info.  I still have those links if you would like them, but I'm really not sure how helpful it is for the SPI.

Will check out TL sometime - thanks for the info.


----------



## MRC & Co

sails said:


> LOL - I didn't spend that long at all to find it. I think I followed a link someone posted on ASF to T2W and a link from there to the relevent ET threads.  More like a paper trail. It took far more time to go through the ET info.  I still have those links if you would like them, but I'm really not sure how helpful it is for the SPI.
> 
> Will check out TL sometime - thanks for the info.




Thx Sails, I will be ok.  Just like on charts, I think most information on DOM is just gathered by watching it.


----------



## Largesse

Is it possible to effectively/successfully scalp the ES being based in Australia?
Or is connection speed to slow due to distance?


----------



## CanOz

Largesse said:


> Is it possible to effectively/successfully scalp the ES being based in Australia?
> Or is connection speed to slow due to distance?




Should be no problem Largesse, however i cannot speak from experience in scalping, only using the IB platform, trading US Stocks and watching the DOM on the ES. 

Interesting point though.

CanOz


----------



## MRC & Co

Largesse said:


> Is it possible to effectively/successfully scalp the ES being based in Australia?
> Or is connection speed to slow due to distance?




Unsure.

I think in the extremelly busy and fast periods in the US timezone, connection speed may be too slow if you are truly scalping.

Though to me, the Europe session in the night S&P looks better, smoother price action.


----------



## Largesse

MRC & Co said:


> Unsure.
> 
> I think in the extremelly busy and fast periods in the US timezone, connection speed may be too slow if you are truly scalping.
> 
> Though to me, the Europe session in the night S&P looks better, smoother price action.





more agreeable hours aswell


----------



## acouch

good morning all
today's road map
have a great day and good trades
ac


----------



## Trembling Hand

Anyone able to trade the SPI for the last 10 min on IB?


----------



## jersey10

mine stuck on 3730


----------



## Trembling Hand

Someone tripped on a cord!!!!! 

this is gonna cost me if my stops don't trigger!!!!!!!!




FARKKKKKKKKKKKKKKKKKKK


----------



## jersey10

Trembling Hand said:


> Someone tripped on a cord!!!!!
> 
> this is gonna cost me if my stops don't trigger!!!!!!!!
> 
> 
> 
> 
> FARKKKKKKKKKKKKKKKKKKK




if you had your stops in already they would have to trigger wouldn't they?


----------



## Trembling Hand

jersey10 said:


> if you had your stops in already they would have to trigger wouldn't they?




Nah they are on IB server not SNFE so who knows!!

But it doesn't matter. I'm long and by looking at other data its still trading and 30 points higher. LOL.


----------



## James Austin

what was that all about??

3761 top??


----------



## jersey10

James Austin said:


> what was that all about??




IB went down due to a power outage in Sydney


----------



## James Austin

jersey10 said:


> IB went down due to a power outage in Sydney





the rally!?


----------



## jersey10

James Austin said:


> the rally!?




they didn't tell me that

and i'm not smart enough to work it out for myself yet


----------



## jersey10

maybe the guy who pulled the plug had his mate load up the bid at the same time


----------



## sails

jersey10 said:


> IB went down due to a power outage in Sydney




ASX trading OK - XJO still climbing at 3664

EDIT - I see ASX is not working through IB, but working well in Iress


----------



## jersey10

sails said:


> ASX trading OK - XJO still climbing at 3664




so the ASX has back up power but the SNFE doesn't??


----------



## MS+Tradesim

I've lost my Paritech feed as well.


----------



## sails

jersey10 said:


> so the ASX has back up power but the SNFE doesn't??




IB has come up with another message to say ASX is down, however ASX is running fine in IRESS.  Could it be a problem with IB in Sydney?


----------



## jersey10

sails said:


> IB has come up with another message to say ASX is down, however ASX is running fine in IRESS.  Could it be a problem with IB in Sydney?




i think you are right


----------



## Trembling Hand

:arsch: :22_yikes:

Gee boys just another day in the wild wild west hey!!



> SYDNEY (Dow Jones)--ASX Ltd. (ASX.AU) said Tuesday that it is operating on backup power due to a power outage in parts of Sydney.
> A spokesman for the securities exchange said that at this stage the market is functioning normally as is the distribution of company announcements.
> Energy Australia wouldn't comment on the scope of the power outage.
> A spokesman for the Roads and Traffic Authority said 27 sets of traffic lights across the city were out of action and that it had been informed that the outage could be up to 30 minutes.


----------



## sails

Trembling Hand said:


> :arsch: :22_yikes:
> 
> Gee boys just another day in the wild wild west hey!!




Looks like the ASX has backup power, but not IB...


----------



## Trembling Hand

sails said:


> Looks like the ASX has backup power, but not IB...




It wouldn't IB it would be Fortis down. IB just passes on Aus stuff to them, I think!


----------



## Mr J

Well, it gives time to get the groceries done instead of having to do it during midday (yesterday, came back and just missed a trade because I wasn't "settled").


----------



## Trembling Hand

We are comming back. 

Watch for Fire works???





> SYDNEY (Dow Jones)--Electrical power was restored Tuesday after a brief outage in parts of Sydney.
> The outage didn't affect ASX Ltd. (ASX.AU), which said it operated on backup power briefly due to the outage.
> A spokesman for the Roads and Traffic Authority said 27 sets of traffic lights across the city had been out of action.
> The area affected by the outage, which began at 0045 GMT, was bordered by Hunter and Kent streets in Sydney, according to a New South Wales state police spokeswoman.


----------



## sails

Trembling Hand said:


> It wouldn't IB it would be Fortis down. IB just passes on Aus stuff to them, I think!




I don't know either, but somehow IB is not getting ASX data.  Iress doesn't appear to have missed a beat.  Below is a 5 min chart of XJO running perfectly...

If anyone has SNFE through Iress, it would be interesting to see if it's still running too.  I think MF Global use Iress.


----------



## jersey10

Trembling Hand said:


> Nah they are on IB server not SNFE so who knows!!
> 
> But it doesn't matter. I'm long and by looking at other data its still trading and 30 points higher. LOL.




so if it had've went 30 points lower you would just have to take that on the chin? even though you had your stops in with IB before it went down?


----------



## Trembling Hand

jersey10 said:


> so if it had've went 30 points lower you would just have to take that on the chin? even though you had your stops in with IB before it went down?




No idea. But I have hedge 1/2 of my position with a bucket shop. At the moment clueless as to whats happened!!

Asia has now reversed.


----------



## sails

Looks like ASX is coming through on IB again - but SPI still silent...


----------



## sails

Trembling Hand said:


> No idea. But I have hedge 1/2 of my position with a bucket shop. At the moment clueless as to whats happened!!
> 
> Asia has now reversed.




So the bucket shop didn't go down?


----------



## Trembling Hand

sails said:


> So the bucket shop didn't go down?




Nope CMC still going


----------



## James Austin

who's with me on a short 3761??

dn, dn, dn we go!!!!!!!!!!!!??????????????


----------



## Bronte

We are short multi contracts on IB @ 3723 / 32
IB can not tell us if any of our stoplosses have been triggered 
So we can not hedge our positions as yet.....Tricom seems ok.
Now 3760   &


----------



## James Austin

IGs Acash is presently identical to futures price, 
Acash price shown here in real time http://www.igmarkets.com.au/
if you want to know where futures at


----------



## sails

Trembling Hand said:


> Nope CMC still going




Obviously having a back up broker is essential.  I do for options, but haven't got one yet for futures.


----------



## jersey10

sails said:


> Looks like ASX is coming through on IB again - but SPI still silent...




how long is this going to take


----------



## Mr J

> Looks like ASX is coming through on IB again - but SPI still silent...




The SPI is up, just not the contracts themselves.


----------



## Naked shorts

Maybe is was a bunch of anti-capitalist hippies who have sabotaged the cities electricity supply. All these electrical outages in Sydney are becoming ridiculous (bordering on more then just a coincidence). God dam hippies


----------



## Bronte

Our worst trading nightmare...being "out-of-control"
SPI going up again ...now 3764


----------



## sails

Mr J said:


> The SPI is up, just not the contracts themselves.




I don't think the SPI actually ever stopped - those with other brokers have probably been OK - the line to IB doesn't appear to have good power back up.  Time to start searching for a bucket shop...


----------



## jersey10

Bronte said:


> Our worst trading nightmare...being "out-of-control"
> SPI going up again ...now 3764




can't you get on the phone to them?


----------



## Mr J

This mess up would have actually worked in my favour, had I not exited a minute earlier .

We're back on now.


----------



## James Austin

sails said:


> I don't think the SPI actually ever stopped - those with other brokers have probably been OK - the line to IB doesn't appear to have good power back up.  Time to start searching for a bucket shop...





yes, Esignal, no problems at all


----------



## Trembling Hand

LOL

Just another day in paradise hey.:bowser:

How did you go Bronte


----------



## Bronte

Spoke with Hong Kong twice and Sydney once earlier this morning.
They are working on it.........


----------



## Mr J

Hoping for a short soon.


----------



## sails

Seems to be up and running again now.

Did you have stops in, Bronte?  Although I guess, good chance they wouldn't have worked with IB down.


----------



## Mr J

5 contracts on the ask .


----------



## Bronte

Bronte said:


> We are short multi contracts on IB @ 3723 / 32
> IB can not tell us if any of our stoplosses have been triggered
> So we can not hedge our positions as yet.....Tricom seems ok.
> Now 3760   &



The exchange did not receive our stops Margaret.
Out at 3755 Ouch!


----------



## Trembling Hand

Mr J said:


> 5 contracts on the ask .




I'll take them :


----------



## Trembling Hand

Trembling Hand said:


> I'll take them :




You can have them back now


----------



## sails

Bronte said:


> The exchange did not receive our stops Margaret.
> Out at 3755 Ouch!




Thanks, Bronte.  That's a question that has been asked and no-one has known the answer so far.  Obviously having a second broker so one can hedge in times like these might help.

Yeah, that would've hurt today.  I'm sure you will make it back 
I wasn't in a trade - still trying to find my niche with the SPI.  Following along with Frank at the moment.  He had a bias to the short side this morning, but a few of my indicators were in conflict, so I stayed out..


----------



## Trembling Hand

sails said:


> Thanks, Bronte.  That's a question that has been asked and no-one has known the answer so far.  Obviously having a second broker so one can hedge in times like these might help.
> 
> Yeah, that would've hurt today.  I'm sure you will make it back
> I wasn't in a trade - still trying to find my niche with the SPI.  Following along with Frank at the moment.  He had a bias to the short side this morning, but a few of my indicators were in conflict, so I stayed out..




Sails I don't think SNFE actually accepts stops at their end. I think they are stored on the brokers end.

I some times end up having reversed positions when I try to close an open order 1 tick before my stop. What happens is I'm long for example and have an "@ market" stop @ 3700 as it gets to 3701 bid I hit it with a sell to close limit on 3701 which closes me out but a fraction of a second someone hits 3700 and sometimes my stop is triggers opening a position short because the OCO order has triggered to close stop!!

happens once in a blue moon but it happens for sure.


----------



## Largesse

is there a finite number of contracts available for trade on the SPI?

if yes, how many are there.
if no, whats to stop people just creating more and more contracts?


ps. i know this is a stupid question


----------



## jersey10

Largesse said:


> is there a finite number of contracts available for trade on the SPI?
> 
> if yes, how many are there.
> if no, whats to stop people just creating more and more contracts?
> 
> 
> ps. i know this is a stupid question




you know the saying, the only stupid question is the question you don't ask.

i have asked numerous questions that i presume many people would think are stupid but it is the only way you learn - swallow your pride and look stupid, in the long run you will be the one who benefits.

ps. no idea the answer to your question.


----------



## Trembling Hand

No in futures all trades are essentially naked.

All you need to do is find a counter party and you can go nuts.

Futs exchanges have position limits but they are in the many many 1000s and in fact the SNFE has no limit on the SPI.

Don't think its of any concern, that rule, to punters.

Currently there is 308,000 contracts open on the SPI.


----------



## Mr J

Trembling Hand said:


> I'll take them :




Oh they weren't mine, I was tossing up whether to go do some shopping or stay and hope for a good retracement. Went shopping as the offers were a bit thin.

I was hoping that the bot you guys were speaking off suffered a temporary setback .


----------



## sails

Trembling Hand said:


> Sails I don't think SNFE actually accepts stops at their end. I think they are stored on the brokers end.
> 
> I some times end up having reversed positions when I try to close an open order 1 tick before my stop. What happens is I'm long for example and have an "@ market" stop @ 3700 as it gets to 3701 bid I hit it with a sell to close limit on 3701 which closes me out but a fraction of a second someone hits 3700 and sometimes my stop is triggers opening a position short because the OCO order has triggered to close stop!!
> 
> happens once in a blue moon but it happens for sure.




I thought that stops were sent to the market - looks like I am wrong and only become market orders when price is hit.  So, on that basis, a back up broker would be useful to hedge if IB loses connection as it did today.

I have done heaps of demo trading on the SPI and just quickly drag the stop order up to the level of the bid and so avoids the risk of reversal.


----------



## Mr J

> a back up broker would be useful to hedge if IB loses connection as it did today.




Did people's stops fire off when IB came back online?

As good a time as any to organise a backup connection and broker.


----------



## Mr J

Trembling Hand said:


> You can have them back now




Knew I shouldn't have gone to the shops, missed out on 35-40 points .


----------



## Frank D

sails said:


> Following along with Frank at the moment.  He had a bias to the short side this morning.....




*SPI Weekly and 5-day pattern*

Very cheeky on the SPI today, early morning set-up played out with the 
push down from the 5-day 50% level @ 3724 into 3706 resulting in 
price below 3711-13.

*My entire view was based on this level (3713) to continue down into the 
5-day lows, as part of the reversal pattern towards the MAY 50%
 level.*

Take partial exits @ 3707 + 14 and hold down....

Instead price moved up in the morning taking out my trailing stops 
above 3713 and continued back towards the highs.

no positions open during the black out.

My morining set-up below 3713 didn't play out until late in the trading 
day, with the HOOK and closure below 3711-13 and rejection pattern 
down.

Very cheeky.....

Expectation remains down towards the MAY 50% level.


----------



## MRC & Co

Frank D said:


> Very cheeky.....




Indeed.  

That was one rollercoast of a day.

Get it right, it's payday.  Next trade, get it wrong, get obliterated.  No pullbacks, no ebbs and flows, just one way action most of the day, similar to yesterday, just in the opposite directions.  

Stress test news was ok, but god they caused some trouble trying to push it down, Deusche news probably best trade of the day.  Then cash closes and WTF, some guy wants 10000000000000000000000000000000 sell fills all at once!


----------



## Mr J

> No pullbacks, no ebbs and flows, just one way action most of the day, similar to yesterday, just in the opposite directions.




Just a bigger wave than usual. It'll teach me to go out for lunch though. It happened the other day as well - I get back, boot up just to miss what would've been my entry.


----------



## jersey10

MRC & Co said:


> Indeed.
> 
> That was one rollercoast of a day.
> 
> Get it right, it's payday.  Next trade, get it wrong, get obliterated.  No pullbacks, no ebbs and flows, just one way action most of the day, similar to yesterday, just in the opposite directions.
> 
> Stress test news was ok, but god they caused some trouble trying to push it down, Deusche news probably best trade of the day.  Then cash closes and WTF, some guy wants 10000000000000000000000000000000 sell fills all at once!




hasn't it been doing that a lot lately.  moving up sharply in the morning, making a double or triple top type thing and then selling off strong for the rest of the day?


----------



## MRC & Co

jersey10 said:


> hasn't it been doing that a lot lately.  moving up sharply in the morning, making a double or triple top type thing and then selling off strong for the rest of the day?




Sometimes, others it will keep going through the highs like the 23rd.


----------



## sails

Looking at Go Markets as a possible back up for the SPI when IB falls over.  Does anyone know if Go Markets handled the power outage in Sydney OK today?

Otherwise - any suggestions?


----------



## acouch

good morning all
today's road map
have a great day and good trades
ac


----------



## Mr J

Always seems to be a trade at 9:50 .


----------



## Trembling Hand

sails said:


> Looking at Go Markets as a possible back up for the SPI when IB falls over.  Does anyone know if Go Markets handled the power outage in Sydney OK today?
> 
> Otherwise - any suggestions?



 Yep They were fine. As far as the CFDs go they are my pick. Market prices and market spread. 



Mr J said:


> Always seems to be a trade at 9:50 .




Sorry? what do you mean always a trade at 9:50?


----------



## sails

Trembling Hand said:


> Yep They were fine. As far as the CFDs go they are my pick. Market prices and market spread...




Thanks, TH.  Any reason you chose CMC over Go to partially hedge yesterday?


----------



## Trembling Hand

sails said:


> Thanks, TH.  Any reason you chose CMC over Go to partially hedge yesterday?



Ok stick with me,

I have been with CMC since 2003. I pretty much know them inside and out 
I have thought about moving on as they don't give me very quick executions anymore  But I like the fact that they still took shorts on ALL stocks when the ASX banded shorting.

In 07 the SPI closed for an hour or two to fix a fault and I was long 4. Once the SPI was out the market went silly without the supporting BOTs and fundies not able to hedge. the XJO dropped about 150 points while I was long 4. CMC saved my **** because i shorted the hell out of their XMJ & XFJ index as a hedge. I actually made money. 

Something I couldn't of done with IB or the other CFD providers a couple of months ago. By the way I have accounts with ig as well but the margins are smaller with CMC so its better having them my main backup with less funds sitting around doing nothing for a year


----------



## Mr J

Trembling Hand said:


> Sorry? what do you mean always a trade at 9:50?




Since I've moved the SPI, there has usually been a trade at 9:5X.


----------



## sails

Trembling Hand said:


> Ok stick with me,
> 
> I have been with CMC since 2003. I pretty much know them inside and out
> I have thought about moving on as they don't give me very quick executions anymore  But I like the fact that they still took shorts on ALL stocks when the ASX banded shorting.
> 
> In 07 the SPI closed for an hour or two to fix a fault and I was long 4. Once the SPI was out the market went silly without the supporting BOTs and fundies not able to hedge. the XJO dropped about 150 points while I was long 4. CMC saved my **** because i shorted the hell out of their XMJ & XFJ index as a hedge. I actually made money.
> 
> Something I couldn't of done with IB or the other CFD providers a couple of months ago. By the way I have accounts with ig as well but the margins are smaller with CMC so its better having them my main backup with less funds sitting around doing nothing for a year




Thanks for the detailed explanation - I'll have another look at CMC...


----------



## James Austin

Sails, 

one thing worth considering is CMC love to requote. So in fast moving index trading this means slippage in and out. 

I dont know how TH gets around this, nor why be puts up with it. 
VIP at CMC perhaps??

JA


----------



## Trembling Hand

James Austin said:


> I dont know how TH gets around this, nor why be puts up with it.
> VIP at CMC perhaps??
> 
> JA




Ha hardly!!

In fact I think they have toilet paper with "Trembling Hand" printed on it


----------



## sails

James Austin said:


> Sails,
> 
> one thing worth considering is CMC love to requote. So in fast moving index trading this means slippage in and out.
> 
> I dont know how TH gets around this, nor why be puts up with it.
> VIP at CMC perhaps??
> 
> JA




Thanks for the info, James! I am using IB as a primary broker for the SPI so any back-up bucket shop won't be used much.  In case of emergency, the slippage is just a fact of life. 

I'm still mainly using the IB demo (not that good at SPI trading yet ), but for live trades, I think it's important to have a secondary means of hedging on the rare occasions IB goes down and everything else is trading normally - as it did yesterday.  Reading Bronte's posts yesterday, it looks like stops are only held on IB's servers, so if IB goes down, the stops will not be sent to the exchange.


----------



## Mr J

> Reading Bronte's posts yesterday, it looks like stops are only held on IB's servers, so if IB goes down, the stops will not be sent to the exchange.




They are, which is why altering them and resending does not lead to a "cancelled trade". I assume the stops will be sent once IB comes back online, so you would probably have to be ready to hedge that as well.


----------



## Naked shorts

Trembling Hand said:


> By the way I have accounts with ig as well but the margins are smaller with CMC so its better having them my main backup with less funds sitting around doing nothing for a year




If your funds are just sitting there stagnating, perhaps look into entering a carry trade. You can get 11% p.a. on the jpy/brl cross (not including the 100:1 leverage)


----------



## Mr J

Been waiting for a bounce the last 15 minutes. Getting a little late.


----------



## sails

Mr J said:


> Been waiting for a bounce the last 15 minutes. Getting a little late.




Very thin market depth for this time of the day...


----------



## Mr J

The bounce came, but I didn't wait for it. Like yesterday, I decided to go to the shops rather than waiting for the trade. 130 points of grocery bills over the last two days .


----------



## MRC & Co

Mr J said:


> The bounce came, but I didn't wait for it. Like yesterday, I decided to go to the shops rather than waiting for the trade. 130 points of grocery bills over the last two days .




Yeh, I was looking for that bounce too, coming out of that range, we were too low and there was good support there.  Got so fed up after the lackluster, thin (Nikkei shut) day, sitting there waiting for ANY good set-up that never came, that I left.

Just got home and turned on my charts.


----------



## acouch

good morning all
today's road map
have a great day and good trades
ac


----------



## Mr J

MRC & Co said:


> Got so fed up after the lackluster, thin (Nikkei shut) day, sitting there waiting for ANY good set-up that never came, that I left.
> 
> Just got home and turned on my charts.




Wasn't away for today's one though.


----------



## acouch

good morning all
today;s road map
have a great day, and good trades
ac


----------



## Mr J

Snooze-fest. Seems like the world is on holiday.


----------



## kapow

Does anyone find watching the Nikkei useful for trading the SPI?


----------



## Trembling Hand

Mr J said:


> Snooze-fest. Seems like the world is on holiday.




They are, China, Korea, Taiwan, Hong Kong closed & Japan Has a long weekend coming up But mainly our crazy hedge fund friends in Singapore are out.

Only traded the first hour.


----------



## kapow

Trembling Hand, if you don't mind me asking, what criteria do you use for deciding when to trade? Volume? Price movement? Something else?


----------



## Trembling Hand

kapow said:


> Trembling Hand, if you don't mind me asking, what criteria do you use for deciding when to trade? Volume? Price movement? Something else?




:dunno:


When I think its going to move. :


----------



## kapow

Haha I had never thought of it that way!


----------



## acouch

good morning all
today's road map
have a great day, and good trades
ac


----------



## Edwood

nice impuslive move up today, 4,000 anyone?


----------



## acouch

Edwood said:


> nice impuslive move up today, 4,000 anyone?




looking that way edwood..
4043 looking good atm..
ac


----------



## acouch

good morning all
today's road map
have a great day and good trades
ac


----------



## acouch

good morning all
today's road map
have a great day and good trades
ac


----------



## acouch

todays chart is posted above..but this is to show you how price goes into time..
 that chart after a day's trading and how it looks up to now in time, as it is a 24 hr chart..
when i post it in the morning , as it is at 7.00am..it is before time as to speak, as prices are all squashed up..but this is how the chart looks as it unfolds in the day..
have a great evening
ac


----------



## acouch

good morning all
today's road map
have a great day and good trades
ac


----------



## James Austin

4040-50 today AC?
or a bit of a breather first?


----------



## acouch

James Austin said:


> 4040-50 today AC?
> or a bit of a breather first?




some time coming in next week james..
4318 would work out well if hit next week,,
would also bring in a lower dble top..
i am not at home..but will check eod chart then
but i think the no is 4318..
enjoy your day
ac


----------



## acouch

good morning all
today's road map
have a great day, and good trades
ac


----------



## acouch

good morning all
Monday's road map,
have a great weekend and take care
ac


----------



## acouch

good morning all
today's road map
have a great day, and good trades
ac


----------



## acouch

good morning all
today's road map
have a great day, and good trading
ac


----------



## acouch

good morning all
today's road map
have a great day, and good trades
ac


----------



## James Austin

it's a very lonely thread you've got here AC

one wonders why, . . . this is where all the action is

no bells and whistles i guess, just simplicity, which doesnt sell


----------



## acouch

James Austin said:


> it's a very lonely thread you've got here AC
> 
> one wonders why, . . . this is where all the action is
> 
> no bells and whistles i guess, just simplicity, which doesnt sell




Hi James,
you think i should add some bells and whistles
i have found this though, might do 



have a great day
ac


----------



## acouch

good morning all
today's road map
have a great day, and good trades
ac


----------



## acouch

good morning all,
there is no point posting a chart today, as it
is very similar to Friday's.
so use that for reference, for those interested
have a great day, and good trades
ac


----------



## acouch

acouch said:


> good morning all,
> there is no point posting a chart today, as it
> is very similar to Friday's.
> so use that for reference, for those interested
> have a great day, and good trades
> ac





thought i would post Friday's 24 hr chart so you can why: there is no point re doing another..
ac
:couch


----------



## acouch

evening all
how the road map has progressed through the day , up until now
enjoy your evening
ac


----------



## acouch

good morning all
today's road map
have a great day, and good trades
ac










a:couch


----------



## acouch

good morning all
today's road map
have a great day and good trades
ac
a:couch


----------



## acouch

good morning all
today;s road map
have a great day and good trades
ac


----------



## RobinHood

anyone watching HSI order flow now?

I thought this bid was a trick someone setup for distribution but alot of it was genuine. Don't think I have ever seen over 400 on the bid and a few hundred on other levels.

still even though we have it there market is not too excited and seems more eager to eat through it (I'm short).


EDIT: the few hundred below 17210 was fake and we broke down big now.

was it me or was alot of the bid also removed in partial amounts while it was being hit so as to appear to be genuine?

whoaa what the hell was that! awesome.


----------



## acouch

the day nearly over
road map opened up

ac


----------



## acouch

good morning all
today's road map
have a great day and good trades
ac


----------



## acouch

good morning
road map opened up after its 24hr trading..
i am posting these so you can see the finished product..
after the days trading
ac


----------



## acouch

good morning all
Monday's road map
have a great weekend , and take care
ac


----------



## acouch

good afternoon all,
how today.s road map is progressing
ac


----------



## acouch

Good morning all,

As i have said once before, i have found that if the road map,
does not finish its 24 hr cycle, it will continue on the following day.
and as sycom closed at midnight last night, chart could not finish its cycle..
so there will be no new road map today, we will still be following Monday's
road map..
have a great day, and good trades
ac


----------



## acouch

acouch said:


> Good morning all,
> 
> As i have said once before, i have found that if the road map,
> does not finish its 24 hr cycle, it will continue on the following day.
> and as sycom closed at midnight last night, chart could not finish its cycle..
> so there will be no new road map today, we will still be following Monday's
> road map..
> have a great day, and good trades
> ac




just to keep you in the loop,
here is the road map from yesterday morning..so you have the visual of her finishing off the road map..which of course will not finish now till am in the morning 
ac


----------



## Joolean

Pretty quiet around here lately but thanks for continuing to post your charts ac.
I've been following them so hope you keep it up.

Can anyone explain to me why the CMC Aussie200 has a 2 point spread but the Aussie200futures has a 3 point spread? I can understand the spread on the futures if they're hedging orders against the spi, but what do they do with the Aussie200 which follows the xjo cash index?
Do they just bank on more people losing than winning? And 0.5% margin! Wtf!?

Jules.


----------



## acouch

Joolean said:


> Pretty quiet around here lately but thanks for continuing to post your charts ac.
> I've been following them so hope you keep it up.
> 
> 
> Jules.




yw jules
ac


----------



## acouch

good morning all,
today's road map
have a great day, and good trades
ac


----------



## GMS

Hello,

Please find below my daily analysis on the front month SFE SPI200 contract. The analysis is based off market profile and capital flow analysis. I hope it is helpful to readers. It is early days for my analysis, so suggestions are welcome.

The June 09 SPI once again held support in the mid 3720’s on the reopen yesterday morning. The market traded back into the key 3759 to 3787 range through the session, with an initiating buy late in the session capped to close at 3777.

The initial balance on the open of the night session remained neutral 3757 to 3773. An initiating sell  followed and was rejected at 3740. Midway through the session, a strong initiating buy tail off 3775 took the market to 3831. The market continued the buying range extension and distributed in a range 3828 to 3858.

The previous session value area 3731 to 3768, and is currently 3756 to 3832.

Resistance anticipated at 3848, 3858, the overnight high and distribution high 17/4, 3876 and 3902.
Key support initially at 3828, which has been the high of several distribution on 1/5, 19/5 and 22/5, and low on 13/5, 3811, 3802, 3792, 3787 and 3776.

Following the overnight break, the market has distributed in a the range 3828 to 3858. The focus now is on the initial balance and whether the market can continue to accept this new higher distribution.




Aliom Pty Limited (ACN 123 876 291 AFSL 323182) does not warrant the accuracy, completeness or correctness of any information herein. In preparing this post, Aliom Pty Limited has not taken into account the investment objectives, financial situation or particular needs of any particular person. Before making an investment decision on the basis of information in this post you should consider whether the information is appropriate in light of your particular investment objectives, financial situation or particular needs. You may wish to consult a licenced advisor or accountant to assist your decision.[/FONT]


----------



## CanOz

Typical run of the mill market analysis, i get almost the same thing from an old CFD provider that still sends me morning market summaries.

Do something unique, like Sofa does....colorful too.

CanOz


----------



## acouch

Do something unique, like Sofa does....colorful too.

CanOz[/QUOTE]


a:couch


----------



## Joolean

Hey great analysis GMS! Where can I get more?
Oh I see, right there in your huge ad, I mean disclaimer, the very first words of which are the name of your company.
Great, I'll just go and sign up now.


----------



## GMS

The analysis is free and my intention is to post it here daily. The disclaimer is a requirement.


----------



## acouch

GMS said:


> The analysis is free and my intention is to post it here daily. The disclaimer is a requirement.




welcome  gms
ac


----------



## beamstas




----------



## GMS

Thank you Beamstas. 

I have discussed my posts with the moderator prior to posting. I hope they will provide readers with an alternate and helpful view of the SPI200 market.


----------



## acouch

something to do when bored

http://www.members.shaw.ca/gf3/circle-the-cat.html

have fun or go mad 

ac


----------



## Joolean

Woohoo!. Proof that I'm at least smarter than a cat.


----------



## acouch

Joolean said:


> Woohoo!. Proof that I'm at least smarter than a cat.




well done..

ac


----------



## beamstas

Im over it!


----------



## acouch

beamstas said:


> Im over it!





too smart


----------



## beamstas

acouch said:


> too smart




There is a technique!
When you find it
It's easy 

Instead of trying to outrun the cat with your dots
You have to outsmart the cat

Its like the tortioise and the hare


----------



## acouch

road map update..

looks to me that it will test lower..showed weakness that it could'nt even test lis at 44..hod 40..

we will see what the trading gods dish up 
ac


----------



## acouch

beamstas said:


> There is a technique!
> When you find it
> It's easy
> 
> Instead of trying to outrun the cat with your dots
> You have to outsmart the cat
> 
> Its like the tortioise and the hare




sounds familar


----------



## acouch

just another chart and another look..

ac


----------



## skyQuake

Oh man thats fun. Easy once u get the trick


----------



## acouch

es  range chart..pretty good if scalping..

aqua your 50% price usually stalls at the yellow

ac


----------



## acouch

good morning all
today's road map
have a great day, and good trades
ac


----------



## GMS

Good Morning,

The June 09 SPI inability to break back into the 3828 to 3858 distribution from the previous session, triggered an initiating sell tail mid afternoon. Overnight the market distributed 3779 to 3816 for most of the session, before a mid morning initiating sell triggered at 3777 to a low 3751. Responsive buying saw the market close at 3757.

The previous session value area (70% of trades) was 3771 to 3837, and is currently lower 3779 to 3810.

The market has made several distributions 3759 to 3787 in previous sessions. A break lower sees support at 3720, where responsive buying rejected extensions lower on 14/5, 15/5, 18/5 and 26/5 . Further extensions opens up areas of distribution with support at 3691, 3660 and 3642.

The beginning of the initiating sell tail at 3777, was just above the beginning of the initial buy tail at 3775 the previous session, and is an anticipated level of resistance today. Following on resistance is anticipated at 3787, 3793, 3811 and 3828.

All the best.




Aliom Pty Limited (ACN 123 876 291 AFSL 323182) does not warrant the accuracy, completeness or correctness of any information herein. In preparing this post, Aliom Pty Limited has not taken into account the investment objectives, financial situation or particular needs of any particular person. Before making an investment decision on the basis of information in this post you should consider whether the information is appropriate in light of your particular investment objectives, financial situation or particular needs. You may wish to consult a licenced advisor or accountant to assist your decision.


----------



## James Austin

GMS said:


> Good Morning,
> 
> The June 09 SPI inability to break back into the 3828 to 3858 distribution from the previous session, triggered an initiating sell tail mid afternoon. Overnight the market distributed 3779 to 3816 for most of the session, before a mid morning initiating sell triggered at 3777 to a low 3751. Responsive buying saw the market close at 3757.
> 
> The previous session value area (70% of trades) was 3771 to 3837, and is currently lower 3779 to 3810.
> 
> The market has made several distributions 3759 to 3787 in previous sessions. A break lower sees support at 3720, where responsive buying rejected extensions lower on 14/5, 15/5, 18/5 and 26/5 . Further extensions opens up areas of distribution with support at 3691, 3660 and 3642.
> 
> The beginning of the initiating sell tail at 3777, was just above the beginning of the initial buy tail at 3775 the previous session, and is an anticipated level of resistance today. Following on resistance is anticipated at 3787, 3793, 3811 and 3828.
> 
> All the best.
> 
> 
> 
> 
> Aliom Pty Limited (ACN 123 876 291 AFSL 323182) does not warrant the accuracy, completeness or correctness of any information herein. In preparing this post, Aliom Pty Limited has not taken into account the investment objectives, financial situation or particular needs of any particular person. Before making an investment decision on the basis of information in this post you should consider whether the information is appropriate in light of your particular investment objectives, financial situation or particular needs. You may wish to consult a licenced advisor or accountant to assist your decision.




Hello GMS

I am interested in your report, but it seems to lack detail.

if each morning it divulged something along the lines of:
look to short at open, close to 3765
close short at 3735

follow with buy 3735
close position at 3765

then i would be keen.

JA


----------



## acouch

good morning all
today's road map
have a great day, and good trades
ac


----------



## mtt

Any one been able to trade the SPI or 'futures' offered by GO Markets?  or is futures trading still disabled on their MT4 platform?

I got mail from them saying that they were fixing the futures price feed but it's been 2 weeks and still no official email.  

cheers,


----------



## GMS

Good Morning,

Yesterday the market distributed in a range 3733 to 3768. An initiating sell out of this distribution overnight was again rejected within the 3720 support. Responsive buying off the low saw two way action into the close that had the overnight distribution 3720 to 3767.

Previous session value area 3751 to 3802, and is currently 3728 to 3753.


Initial key resistance is 3768 high of the current distribution, 3776 where the market broke to an initiating buy extension on 26/5 and was commencement of the sell tail early yesterday morning. Following on resistance is anticipated at 3787, 3793, 3802, 3811 and 3828. Support is anticipated at 3759, 3749, 3741, 3720 key support, 3714, 3708, 3691 and 3660.

The continuation of distribution overnight leaves the market neutral. The move off the point of control at 3741 overnight to close higher indicates the market may have reached efficiency and is seeking a new distribution. The close at the high of the distribution leaves the question begging.

All the best for the day.


Aliom Pty Limited (ACN 123 876 291 AFSL 323182) does not warrant the accuracy, completeness or correctness of any information herein. In preparing this post, Aliom Pty Limited has not taken into account the investment objectives, financial situation or particular needs of any particular person. Before making an investment decision on the basis of information in this post you should consider whether the information is appropriate in light of your particular investment objectives, financial situation or particular needs. You may wish to consult a licenced advisor or accountant to assist your decision.


----------



## sails

mtt said:


> Any one been able to trade the SPI or 'futures' offered by GO Markets?  or is futures trading still disabled on their MT4 platform?
> 
> I got mail from them saying that they were fixing the futures price feed but it's been 2 weeks and still no official email.
> 
> cheers,




There was a new message in the MT4 mailbox from Go this morning that they will be solely concentrating on FX and spot metals through the MT4 platform.  All other products are available through the GoTrader platform which they tell me will now need to be issued me with new information to log into the GoTrader platform for SPI trading.


----------



## mtt

sails said:


> There was a new message in the MT4 mailbox from Go this morning that they will be solely concentrating on FX and spot metals through the MT4 platform.  All other products are available through the GoTrader platform which they tell me will now need to be issued me with new information to log into the GoTrader platform for SPI trading.





From what I've seen, on the GOTrader platform you are offered the 'real' SPI futures.  No fractional contracts and comms. around $10/side.  Not as competitive as IB.

Interesting spin story from GO Markets,  the email says nothing about their problems with the futures price feed on MT4!


----------



## acouch

update on road map ..
have a great evening
ac


----------



## GMS

Good Afternoon,

The June 09 SPI broke through the 3776 resistance today and traded higher on the initiating buy extension. The market traded to key resistance at 3828, which triggered a responsive sell tail to 3840 that capped the extension. Responsive selling bought the market back to a distributive pattern for the rest of the session.

Have a good weekend.


----------



## acouch

good morning all,
Monday's road map
have a great weekend and take care
ac


----------



## GMS

Good Morning,

The June 09 SPI continued the buying extension on Friday night with a new extension off the 3815 point of control. An initiating buy tail triggered at 3833, took the market to a high of 3856, where responsive selling capped the market into the close. The previous session value area was 3734 to 3803, and is currently 3806 to 3833.

Key resistance levels 3849, 3858, 3873, 3882, 3895, 3902, 3919
Support 3839, 3833, 3828, 3815, 3811, 3802, 3793, 3787

The close at 3845 leaves the market within the previous 3828 to 3858 distribution range. The market closed the session distributing, and imbalanced.

A continuation of the development higher opens up distribution levels at 3902 and 3955. A break back below 3828 opens up a distribution to 3802.

Have a good day.


Aliom Pty Limited (ACN 123 876 291 AFSL 323182) does not warrant the accuracy, completeness or correctness of any information herein. In preparing this post, Aliom Pty Limited has not taken into account the investment objectives, financial situation or particular needs of any particular person. Before making an investment decision on the basis of information in this post you should consider whether the information is appropriate in light of your particular investment objectives, financial situation or particular needs. You may wish to consult a licenced advisor or accountant to assist your decision.


----------



## acouch

afternoon all,
snapshot of the road map update so far today..
have fun
ac


----------



## acouch

good morning all
today's road map
have a great day, and good trades
ac


----------



## GMS

Good Morning,

The June 09 SPI200, has continued the initiating buy extension overnight trading to the previous distribution high of 3954. An initiating buy break at 3909 saw the market extend to the highs on two way action and form a distribution 3931 to 3953.

The previous session value area was 3810 to 3864 and is currently 3900 to 3940.

The 3931 to 3953 distribution that has developed this morning is still in its infancy. Previous distributions have ranged 3909 to mid 3950s on 5/5, 7/5 and 11/5. A continuation higher sees resistance at 3967 then 3989. A rejection and subsequent break lower sees support at 3931, 3909, 3894 and 3873. 

Resistance levels 3946, 3955, 3967, 3972, 3989, 4000, 4015, 4042
Support levels 3931, 3919, 3909, 3901, 3893, 3882, 3873, 3858.

Have a good day


Aliom Pty Limited (ACN 123 876 291 AFSL 323182) does not warrant the accuracy, completeness or correctness of any information herein. In preparing this post, Aliom Pty Limited has not taken into account the investment objectives, financial situation or particular needs of any particular person. Before making an investment decision on the basis of information in this post you should consider whether the information is appropriate in light of your particular investment objectives, financial situation or particular needs. You may wish to consult a licenced advisor or accountant to assist your decision.


----------



## acouch

good morning all
today's road map
have a great day, and good trades
ac


----------



## GMS

Good Morning,

The June 09 SPI broke through the key distribution 3955 high, yesterday to the next resistance level 3967, where it was capped and way action featured in the afternoon session. Last night the market initiated a buy tail break off the previous session point of control 3949 for another buying extension to 3996. The morning session has seen distribution off this new development.

The new distribution is 3955 to 3996, indicates the market is balancing but is in its infancy. A continuation higher sees previous distribution highs 4014 and 4061, although the current point of control at 3989 is another key resistance today. A break below 3955 sees a move back to the previous distribution high 3902.

Resistance levels 3989, 4000, 4014, 4056 and 4061.
Support 3967, 3955, 3949, 3931, 3916, 3902

Have a good day.

Aliom Pty Limited (ACN 123 876 291 AFSL 323182) does not warrant the accuracy, completeness or correctness of any information herein. In preparing this post, Aliom Pty Limited has not taken into account the investment objectives, financial situation or particular needs of any particular person. Before making an investment decision on the basis of information in this post you should consider whether the information is appropriate in light of your particular investment objectives, financial situation or particular needs. You may wish to consult a licenced advisor or accountant to assist your decision.


----------



## acouch

today;s updated road map
for those interested
ac


----------



## acouch

good morning all
this is how yesterdays 24hr road map finished..
closed this morning at the lis at 3975..
so today's road map will just be a re run of yesterday
cant see any point of doing a new chart for today..
have a great day. and good trades
ac


----------



## GMS

Good Morning,

The June 09 SPI broke out of the 3955 to 3996 distribution late yesterday to trigger a initiating buy tail at 4014, which capped the advance at 4029. Overnight opened to a strong responsive sell tail back to the previous session point of control 3989. Two way action through the session, saw the market reject the lows at key level 3949, to close at 3975.

The previous session value area was 3950 to 3995, and is currently 3955 to 3995.

The trading action overnight leaves the market within the previous distribution range 3955 to 3995, and is now 3949 to 3998. The broad single tails discussed above indicate the market has rejected prices higher so far. Key resistance is at the point of control 3989, and 4014. Key support 3949, 3918 and 3902.

Resistance levels 3981, 3989, 3998, 4014, 4023, 4029
Support levels 3968, 3955, 3949, 3937, 3931

Have a good day.

Aliom Pty Limited (ACN 123 876 291 AFSL 323182) does not warrant the accuracy, completeness or correctness of any information herein. In preparing this post, Aliom Pty Limited has not taken into account the investment objectives, financial situation or particular needs of any particular person. Before making an investment decision on the basis of information in this post you should consider whether the information is appropriate in light of your particular investment objectives, financial situation or particular needs. You may wish to consult a licenced advisor or accountant to assist your decision.


----------



## acouch

morning all
today's road map
have a great day, and good trades
ac


----------



## GMS

Good Morning,

Yesterday the market broke off the previous session point of control at 3989 to trade back into the distribution 3949 to 3998. The distribution through the session was eventually 3928 to 3966. Overnight an initiating sell was rejected at 3911, and responsive buying through the latter half of the session has the market trading back into the distribution.

The previous session value area (70% trading activity) was 3945 to 3988, and is currently lower at 3930 to 3958.

The distribution overnight was 3915 to 3966, with the point of control 3948. This is the identical distribution from overnight 1/6 and 2/6, where the market broke higher off the point of control at 3949.

A continuation higher today, sees key resistance at 3989, the point of control that initiated the development lower yesterday, and 4014. Key support is at 3948, 3909, and 3893.

Focus this morning is on the 3948 point of control, and the move off this point, which is a guide to the next development, and distribution. Late in the session the market has moved higher off the level and we now look for a possible continuation of this move.

Resistance levels 3966, 3981, 3990, 3998, 4014 and 4023.
Support levels 3955, 3948, 3931, 3917, 3909, 3893

Have a good day.



Aliom Pty Limited (ACN 123 876 291 AFSL 323182) does not warrant the accuracy, completeness or correctness of any information herein. In preparing this post, Aliom Pty Limited has not taken into account the investment objectives, financial situation or particular needs of any particular person. Before making an investment decision on the basis of information in this post you should consider whether the information is appropriate in light of your particular investment objectives, financial situation or particular needs. You may wish to consult a licenced advisor or accountant to assist your decision.


----------



## acouch

good morning all,
Tuesday's road map
have a great long weekend and take care
ac


----------



## GMS

Good Morning,

On the open overnight the market broke to an initiating sell tail following the failure to break back above key resistance3949. The market traded to a low of 3901 (3902 the development high on 2/6), where responsive buying rejected the break and two way action through the morning saw the market close at 3940.

A break below the 3902 opens a break to 3893, then 3858 the previous development low. To the upside key resistance is at 3949, then 3955 the previous development low. 

The market developed overnight 3905 to 3920, and broke higher off the point of control 3912, to start a new distribution in the latter half of the session. The market goes into the reopen today imbalanced and looking to commence a new development.

Key resistance 3949, 3955, 3964, 3981, 3998, 4014
Key support 3917, 3912, 3902, 3893, 3875, 3858, 3849

Have a good day.


Aliom Pty Limited (ACN 123 876 291 AFSL 323182) does not warrant the accuracy, completeness or correctness of any information herein. In preparing this post, Aliom Pty Limited has not taken into account the investment objectives, financial situation or particular needs of any particular person. Before making an investment decision on the basis of information in this post you should consider whether the information is appropriate in light of your particular investment objectives, financial situation or particular needs. You may wish to consult a licenced advisor or accountant to assist your decision.


----------



## acouch

today;'s chart. not bad seeing it was done on sat..
and had sycom in between..
have fun 
ac


----------



## acouch

morning all
today's road map
have a great day, and good trades
ac


----------



## GMS

Good Morning,

The June 09 SPI continues to trade within the previous development and remains neutral. The market broke higher off the point of control at 3956 mid way through the session with the market trading to a high of 3980 where responsive selling capped the advance and took the market to 3968 on the close.

The market has had several breaks off the 3955/3956 point of control in recent sessions, only to have the market reject advances either side of a 3901 to 3998 development through June. Once again overnight the break off the point of control 3956 opens up potential this morning for a new distribution higher. 

Interestingly the daily chart for June has a developed point of control for the period 3936 to 3968, and we look for breaks off this range as an additional indicator.

The previous session point of control was 3912 to 3966 and is currently 3944 to 3970.

Key resistance 3968, 3981, 3990, 3998, 4014, 4023, 4029, 4041
Key support 3957/56, 3949, 3942, 3936, 3931, 3917, 3901, 3893


Have a good day.

Aliom Pty Limited (ACN 123 876 291 AFSL 323182) does not warrant the accuracy, completeness or correctness of any information herein. In preparing this post, Aliom Pty Limited has not taken into account the investment objectives, financial situation or particular needs of any particular person. Before making an investment decision on the basis of information in this post you should consider whether the information is appropriate in light of your particular investment objectives, financial situation or particular needs. You may wish to consult a licenced advisor or accountant to assist your decision.


----------



## acouch

afternoon,
how the road map looked eod trading
have a great evening
ac


----------



## acouch

good morning all
today's road map
have a great day, and good trades
ac


----------



## GMS

Good Morning,

The June 09 SPI broke off the 3956 point of control yesterday, taking the market out of the 3901 – 3998 development of recent sessions, to the commencement of a new development 3998 to 4056.


The market broke off the point of control at 4044 overnight back to key level 3998, where responsive buying rejected the move and the market closed at 4023. The new development 3998 to 4056 is immature, and we may see distributions outside this range today. The 4044 point of control is now key resistance and we look for a break above for continuation of the initiating buy yesterday. Key support is at 4005 and 3998 the previous development high.

The previous session value area (70% of trades) was 3951 to 4005, and is currently 4012 to 4045.

Resistance levels 4030, 4044, 4056, 4061, 4078
Support levels 4014, 4005, 3998, 3990, 3981, 3957

Have a good day.




Aliom Pty Limited (ACN 123 876 291 AFSL 323182) does not warrant the accuracy, completeness or correctness of any information herein. In preparing this post, Aliom Pty Limited has not taken into account the investment objectives, financial situation or particular needs of any particular person. Before making an investment decision on the basis of information in this post you should consider whether the information is appropriate in light of your particular investment objectives, financial situation or particular needs. You may wish to consult a licenced advisor or accountant to assist your decision.


----------



## Joolean

Boy, it couldn't get enough of that 4045 level today.


----------



## acouch

good morning all
today's road map
have a great day, and good trades
ac


----------



## GMS

Good Morning,

The June 09 SPI continued to trade within the 3998 to 4056 development yesterday with the point of control at 4046. Overnight the market initiated another buy tail off the initial balance range and essentially 4046 POC, to form a new development.

The new development is 4046 to 4091, with a point of control 4069. Looking for a break above 4069 for indication of a continuation of buying extension, with key resistance at 4091, 4098 and 4117. Key support is 4046 and 4028.

Resistance levels 4069, 4078, 4091, 4098, 4117, 4132
Support levels 4056, 4046, 4028, 4014, 4005, 3998


Have a good day.

Aliom Pty Limited (ACN 123 876 291 AFSL 323182) does not warrant the accuracy, completeness or correctness of any information herein. In preparing this post, Aliom Pty Limited has not taken into account the investment objectives, financial situation or particular needs of any particular person. Before making an investment decision on the basis of information in this post you should consider whether the information is appropriate in light of your particular investment objectives, financial situation or particular needs. You may wish to consult a licenced advisor or accountant to assist your decision.


----------



## acouch

update on todays road map eod trading..
ac


----------



## acouch

good morning all,
Monday's road map
have a great weekend, and take care
ac


----------



## GMS

Good Morning,

The market has continued to trade within the previous development. The 4046 point of control is now 4044, and a late session move off this level Saturday morning saw the market trade higher into the close. 

The 4046 to 4091 development discussed Friday has consolidated 4044 to 4069. Resistance is seen at the point of control through Friday 4069/4070, the development high 4091, 4097 and 4117. Support at the current POC 4044, 4028 and the previous development high 3998.

The previous session value area was 4052 to 4076 and is currently 4038 to 4054.

Resistance levels 4069/70, 4078, 4091, 4097, 4117, 4132
Support level 4056, 4044, 4028, 4014, 4005, 3998, 3981


Have a good day.



Aliom Pty Limited (ACN 123 876 291 AFSL 323182) does not warrant the accuracy, completeness or correctness of any information herein. In preparing this post, Aliom Pty Limited has not taken into account the investment objectives, financial situation or particular needs of any particular person. Before making an investment decision on the basis of information in this post you should consider whether the information is appropriate in light of your particular investment objectives, financial situation or particular needs. You may wish to consult a licenced advisor or accountant to assist your decision.


----------



## acouch

evening all
just a update of today's road map for those interested
enjoy your evening
ac


----------



## acouch

morning all
today's road map
have a great day, and good trades
ac


----------



## GMS

Good Morning,

The June 09 SPI, broke to an initiating sell tail late yesterday, off 4029, and followed through on the open last night to 4006. Two way action ensued before a second initiating sell tail off 3986 midsession, took the market to session lows. Responsive buying off key support saw the market go out at 3975.

The market has broken from the previous development and distributed back to key support at 3955. The market has created two developments overnight 3986 to 4014 and 3955 to 3981, indicating the market remains unsettled leaning lower.

Key support is now at previous development low 3955. A continuation lower sees key levels at 3931, broader development low 3906, and 3881. Key resistance 3986, previous development high 3998, 4004 the current point of control and 4014.

The previous value area was 4037 to 4054 and is currently 3970 to 4009.

Resistance levels 3986, 3990, 3998, 4004, 4014, 4029
Support levels 3955, 3949, 3933, 3926, 3912, 3906, 3881, 3868

Have a good day.


Aliom Pty Limited (ACN 123 876 291 AFSL 323182) does not warrant the accuracy, completeness or correctness of any information herein. In preparing this post, Aliom Pty Limited has not taken into account the investment objectives, financial situation or particular needs of any particular person. Before making an investment decision on the basis of information in this post you should consider whether the information is appropriate in light of your particular investment objectives, financial situation or particular needs. You may wish to consult a licenced advisor or accountant to assist your decision.


----------



## acouch

good morning all
today's road map, i have also included
Septembers contract, i have been watching it the
last couple of days,,seems to get the highs /lows
but will keep a beady eye on it in case it needs tweaking ..
as it has to last the 3 months and has to be right..
have a great day and good trades
ac


----------



## GMS

Good Morning,

The June 09 SPI rejected the advance back above the 4004 point of control yesterday, trading back to support 3955. An initiating sell tail triggered at 3949 late in the session, where responsive buying rejected the break lower. Last night the market continued to trade within the previous value area 3964 to 4002. A mid morning break at 3960 took the market to session lows. There was two way action into the close although the market has closed at session lows.

The market has broken the development low at 3955 and is distributing looking to establish a new development. The market is therefore imbalanced. A double development overnight indicates the market is leaning lower.

Key resistance is at 3949, 3955, 3968 and 3998. Looking at the daily profile for June the market has a POC range 3944 to 3969, where the market broke up from development highs at 3895 to 3902, so key support is 3895 to 3902 and 3881.

The previous session value area was 3964 to 4002 and is currently 3942 to 3983.

Resistance levels 3933, 3949, 3955, 3960, 3968, 3980, 3986, 3998.
Support levels 3912, 3900, 3895, 3881, 3868, 3846, 3836

Have a good day.




Aliom Pty Limited (ACN 123 876 291 AFSL 323182) does not warrant the accuracy, completeness or correctness of any information herein. In preparing this post, Aliom Pty Limited has not taken into account the investment objectives, financial situation or particular needs of any particular person. Before making an investment decision on the basis of information in this post you should consider whether the information is appropriate in light of your particular investment objectives, financial situation or particular needs. You may wish to consult a licenced advisor or accountant to assist your decision.


----------



## GMS

Good Morning,

The SPI Sept 09 contract continued to distribute lower yesterday in a volatile and imbalanced session. Overnight the market initiated another sell to trigger a responsive buy tail starting at 3833. Responsive buying rejected the break here and two way action featured the remainder of the session.

The market has made a small development overnight around the current value area 3848 to 3870, indicating some balance has re-entered the market. The current point of control is 3863, and we look now for either continuation and balance at this development or a break off the 3863 point of control, and new distribution. Key resistance at 3910 and key support 3838 and 3767.

The previous session value area was 3870 to 3946.

Resistance levels 3870, 3883, 3897, 3910, 3919, 3925, 3941, 3968
Support levels 3863, 3849, 3838, 3816, 3797, 3767

Have a good day.


Aliom Pty Limited (ACN 123 876 291 AFSL 323182) does not warrant the accuracy, completeness or correctness of any information herein. In preparing this post, Aliom Pty Limited has not taken into account the investment objectives, financial situation or particular needs of any particular person. Before making an investment decision on the basis of information in this post you should consider whether the information is appropriate in light of your particular investment objectives, financial situation or particular needs. You may wish to consult a licenced advisor or accountant to assist your decision.


----------



## GMS

Good Morning,

The SPI Sept 09 contract continued to trade around the development established late in the prior session yesterday. Overnight the market initially traded to the low side of the development and advanced to trade the upside in the morning session.

The market has closed at the development high and is balanced, with the previous session value area 3849 to 3870, slightly changed today 3849 to 3878. The double distribution overnight and close at highs indicates the market has potential to trade higher today and distribute out of the development (imbalance). Key resistance is at 3903 and 3925, with key support at 3881, the beginning of the responsive sell tail that rejected the advance yesterday, previous POC 3863, current session POC 3849 and 3833.

Resistance levels 3897, 3903, 3919, 3925, 3941, 3959, 3968
Support levels 3881, 3870, 3863, 3849, 3838, 3830, 3816

Have a good day.


Aliom Pty Limited (ACN 123 876 291 AFSL 323182) does not warrant the accuracy, completeness or correctness of any information herein. In preparing this post, Aliom Pty Limited has not taken into account the investment objectives, financial situation or particular needs of any particular person. Before making an investment decision on the basis of information in this post you should consider whether the information is appropriate in light of your particular investment objectives, financial situation or particular needs. You may wish to consult a licenced advisor or accountant to assist your decision.


----------



## GMS

Good Morning,

The SPI200 Sept 09 contract has continued to trade within the current development 3842 to 3902, and rejected advances again at both these levels, on Friday night. The market remains balanced and as it moves towards efficiency in this development remain mindful of a break that will start something new. Key support is at 3842, 3833, and 3796. Key resistance 3868, 3881, 3902 and 3925.

The previous session value area was 3857 to 3888 and is currently 3863 to 3889.


Resistance levels 3868, 3881, 3897, 3903,3919, 3925, 3941, 3959
Support levels 3863, 3855, 3849, 3833, 3821, 3800, 3796


Have a good day.


Aliom Pty Limited (ACN 123 876 291 AFSL 323182) does not warrant the accuracy, completeness or correctness of any information herein. In preparing this post, Aliom Pty Limited has not taken into account the investment objectives, financial situation or particular needs of any particular person. Before making an investment decision on the basis of information in this post you should consider whether the information is appropriate in light of your particular investment objectives, financial situation or particular needs. You may wish to consult a licenced advisor or accountant to assist your decision.


----------



## GMS

Good Morning,


The SPI Sept 09 contract has initiated a sell tail and extension overnight to break the established development of recent sessions.

Key support is at previous development lows 3796 and 3760/55, 3741 and 3719. Key resistance at 3833, 3842 the previous development low, 3863 and 3881. The night session has featured imbalance and distribution. There has been some development late in the session testing the market from 3800 to 3815, although its early days.

The previous session value area was 3869 to 3894, and is currently 3810 to 3864

Resistance levels 3808, 3816, 3821, 3833, 3842, 3855, 3863, 3885, 3905
Support levels 3795, 3787, 3768, 3748, 3741, 3734, 3719, 3712


Have a good day.


Aliom Pty Limited (ACN 123 876 291 AFSL 323182) does not warrant the accuracy, completeness or correctness of any information herein. In preparing this post, Aliom Pty Limited has not taken into account the investment objectives, financial situation or particular needs of any particular person. Before making an investment decision on the basis of information in this post you should consider whether the information is appropriate in light of your particular investment objectives, financial situation or particular needs. You may wish to consult a licenced advisor or accountant to assist your decision.


----------



## GMS

Good Morning,

The SPI200 Sept 09 contract broke the key development low at 3796 yesterday, to continue the sell extension lower. Overnight the market has traded to a low of 3722, just shy of the 3719 support.

The development has begun to emerge in the market overnight, following the distribution lower. Key resistance is at previous development high 3768 on 29/5, 3796 and 3815. Key support at 3741, 3734, and 3719.

Resistance levels 3763, 3768, 3776, 3796, 3815, 3821, 3833
Support levels 3748, 3741, 3735, 3719, 3712, 3700, 3691, 3680

Have a good day.

Aliom Pty Limited (ACN 123 876 291 AFSL 323182) does not warrant the accuracy, completeness or correctness of any information herein. In preparing this post, Aliom Pty Limited has not taken into account the investment objectives, financial situation or particular needs of any particular person. Before making an investment decision on the basis of information in this post you should consider whether the information is appropriate in light of your particular investment objectives, financial situation or particular needs. You may wish to consult a licenced advisor or accountant to assist your decision.


----------



## GMS

Good Morning,

The SPI200 Sept 09 contract, yesterday continued the trading development from the previous session. A late break at 3789 triggered a responsive sell tail, rejecting the advance and taking the market back near the point of control 3767 into the close. Last night the market attempted another break off the 3767 POC, initiating a buy tail off 3783. The market extended back into the development 3800 to 3815 on 23/6, where it was unable to hold and close back at 3791.

Key resistance for today is 3800, development high 3815 and 3846 the start of the sell tail that took the market lower on 22/6. Key support at 3783, 3767 previous POC, 3756 and 3719. 

The previous session value area was 3742 to 3775 and is currently 3773 to 3804.

Resistance levels 3800, 3806, 3815, 3833, 3846, 3855
Support levels 3787, 3783, 3768, 3756, 3741, 3719

Have a good day.


Aliom Pty Limited (ACN 123 876 291 AFSL 323182) does not warrant the accuracy, completeness or correctness of any information herein. In preparing this post, Aliom Pty Limited has not taken into account the investment objectives, financial situation or particular needs of any particular person. Before making an investment decision on the basis of information in this post you should consider whether the information is appropriate in light of your particular investment objectives, financial situation or particular needs. You may wish to consult a licenced advisor or accountant to assist your decision.


----------



## Joolean

Ac, how do you handle your median lines at rollover?

E.g. The Sep contract traded at a 30 point discount to the June contract at rollover. Do you adjust all your existing lines by 30 points for the Sep contract or just start over again?

Cheers,
Julian.


----------



## acouch

Joolean said:


> Ac, how do you handle your median lines at rollover?
> 
> E.g. The Sep contract traded at a 30 point discount to the June contract at rollover. Do you adjust all your existing lines by 30 points for the Sep contract or just start over again?
> 
> Cheers,
> Julian.




hi Julian,

I create a brand new chart for each contract..
they do not roll over..
so September contract is only September..has nothing to do with June..

hope this is of some help
ac


----------



## Joolean

acouch said:


> hi Julian,
> 
> I create a brand new chart for each contract..
> they do not roll over..
> so September contract is only September..has nothing to do with June..
> 
> hope this is of some help
> ac




Thanks ac.
It's my first rollover  and I wasn't sure if there was any correlation between the old June levels and the new contract.
I couldn't see any reason for there to be but just checking.

Cheers,
Jules.


----------



## acouch

Joolean said:


> Thanks ac.
> It's my first rollover  and I wasn't sure if there was any correlation between the old June levels and the new contract.
> I couldn't see any reason for there to be but just checking.
> 
> Cheers,
> Jules.




but the forward contract will often track the current one..so in a way there is some correlation between the two..
ac


----------



## GMS

Good Morning,

The SPI Sept 09 contract broke through key development high 3815 yesterday, and has continued to distribute higher overnight. Key resistance is at 3863 and 3881 the previous point of control where the market broke out of the established development on 23/6. Key support 3846 previous development low, 3833 and 3815.

The market has made a double distribution higher overnight, indicating potential towards the upside. The market was distributing into the close as opposed to developing, and is therefore imbalanced.

Resistance levels 3863, 3881, 3905, 3919, 3925, 3941
Support levels 3855, 3849, 3833, 3815, 3800, 3787

Have a good day,


Aliom Pty Limited (ACN 123 876 291 AFSL 323182) does not warrant the accuracy, completeness or correctness of any information herein. In preparing this post, Aliom Pty Limited has not taken into account the investment objectives, financial situation or particular needs of any particular person. Before making an investment decision on the basis of information in this post you should consider whether the information is appropriate in light of your particular investment objectives, financial situation or particular needs. You may wish to consult a licenced advisor or accountant to assist your decision.


----------



## GMS

Good Morning,

On Friday night the SPI Sept. 09 contract continued to trade within the development established in the day session. The development is similar to developments in a range 3854 to 3902 on 18/6, 19/6 and 22/6 prior to the break lower on 22/6. The market closed balanced.

Key resistance is at 3891, 3902, 3920 and previous development low 3955. Key support at 3863, 3855, 3833 and 3815. The close at 3880 is at the point of control, which was the POC on 19/6 and 22/6, and from where the market made the break lower on 22/6. Looking for a move off this level for guide to the next distributive move.

The previous session values area was 3819 to 3876 and is currently 3870 to 3884.

Resistance levels 3885, 3891, 3906, 3919, 3925, 3941, 3955
Support levels 3880, 3863, 3855, 3846, 3833, 3815, 3806

Have a good day.

Aliom Pty Limited (ACN 123 876 291 AFSL 323182) does not warrant the accuracy, completeness or correctness of any information herein. In preparing this post, Aliom Pty Limited has not taken into account the investment objectives, financial situation or particular needs of any particular person. Before making an investment decision on the basis of information in this post you should consider whether the information is appropriate in light of your particular investment objectives, financial situation or particular needs. You may wish to consult a licenced advisor or accountant to assist your decision.


----------



## Joolean

Ac, are you not publishing your levels anymore?


----------



## acouch

Joolean said:


> Ac, are you not publishing your levels anymore?




Hi Joolean,

I don't think that many are that interested,as there is no imput
and it takes time to set up each day,
so i havn't bothered.
enjoy your day, and good trades joolean
ac


----------



## Bronte

We are / were interested a :couch lol
& wish to thank you for your past input


----------



## GMS

Good Morning,

The SPI Sept 09 contract traded within the previous 3855 to 3902 development yesterday. A responsive sell tail at 3897 and responsive buy tail at 3853 rejected breaks either side of the range. Overnight the market opened near the development low, before trading up into the development. A break at the 3880 point of control spurned the market higher to be capped again at 3902. Two way action took the market into the close at 3893.

The market has closed within the 3855 to 3902 development and remains balanced. The initiating buy tail off 3880 and double distribution to the upside indicates the market is leaning higher this morning. Key resistance is development high 3902, 3925, previous development low 3942, and 3958. Key support at POC 3880, 3863, 3855 and 3833.

The previous session value area was 3865 to 3886 and is currently 3862 to 3893.

Resistance levels 3898, 3922, 3919, 3925, 3931, 3942, 3955, 3958, 3972
Support levels 3880, 3872, 3863, 3855, 3846, 3833, 3815, 3806

Have a good day.



Aliom Pty Limited (ACN 123 876 291 AFSL 323182) does not warrant the accuracy, completeness or correctness of any information herein. In preparing this post, Aliom Pty Limited has not taken into account the investment objectives, financial situation or particular needs of any particular person. Before making an investment decision on the basis of information in this post you should consider whether the information is appropriate in light of your particular investment objectives, financial situation or particular needs. You may wish to consult a licenced advisor or accountant to assist your decision.


----------



## skc

acouch said:


> Hi Joolean,
> 
> I don't think that many are that interested,as there is no imput
> and it takes time to set up each day,
> so i havn't bothered.
> enjoy your day, and good trades joolean
> ac




I think more people were interested than you realise mr sofa.

Appreciate your effort in the past, whether you decide to resume or not.


----------



## Joolean

Doh!  I understand though, this forum has been dead quiet for a while now.
You've put in a huge effort ac posting since Sep 07!!
Wish you'd continue but regardless, thanks for posting such a huge wealth of examples to study.


----------



## Largesse

anyone for window dressing?


----------



## GMS

Good Morning,

The SPI200 Sept 09 contract initiated a buy tail out of the 3855 to 3902 development yesterday, with an extension to 3930. Two way action through the course of the session, saw the market trade back to the 3898 point of control into the close. Overnight the market attempted to trade back above the 3902 development high and failed. The market traded lower through the session, making a double distribution to the downside indicating more downside potential.

The market failed to start a new development following the distribution higher yesterday and has moved back into the 3855 to 3902 range. The market is closed balanced. Key resistance is at 3880, 3898 the current point of control, 3902 and 3930. Key support at 3863, 3855 and 3833.

The previous session value area was 3874 to 3918, and is currently 3876 to 3900.

Resistance levels 3880, 3891, 3898, 3902, 3925, 3930, 3942, 3955
Support levels 3863, 3855, 3846, 3833, 3815, 3906, 3800


Have a good day.



Aliom Pty Limited (ACN 123 876 291 AFSL 323182) does not warrant the accuracy, completeness or correctness of any information herein. In preparing this post, Aliom Pty Limited has not taken into account the investment objectives, financial situation or particular needs of any particular person. Before making an investment decision on the basis of information in this post you should consider whether the information is appropriate in light of your particular investment objectives, financial situation or particular needs. You may wish to consult a licenced advisor or accountant to assist your decision.


----------



## GMS

Good Morning,

The SPI200 Sept 09, initiated a sell below the 3855 to 3902 range yesterday, which triggered a responsive buy tail starting at 3840 that rejected the break lower. The market traded back into the development throughout the rest of the session.

Overnight the market continued to trade within the development. A break midsession was capped at the previous session point of control 3898, and traded back to 3877 on the close.

The market continues to facilitate trade back within the 3855 to 3902 range and remains balanced. 

The previous session point of control was 3849 to 3891 and is currently 3870 to 3885. The current point of control is 3875.

Resistance levels 3880, 3891, 3898, 3902, 3919, 3925, 3931, 3942.
Support levels 3875, 3863, 3855, 3846, 3840, 3833, 3815


Have a good day.

Aliom Pty Limited (ACN 123 876 291 AFSL 323182) does not warrant the accuracy, completeness or correctness of any information herein. In preparing this post, Aliom Pty Limited has not taken into account the investment objectives, financial situation or particular needs of any particular person. Before making an investment decision on the basis of information in this post you should consider whether the information is appropriate in light of your particular investment objectives, financial situation or particular needs. You may wish to consult a licenced advisor or accountant to assist your decision.


----------



## GMS

Good Morning,

The SPI200 Sept 09 contract initiated a sell tail break out of the previous development last night distributing lower. The market initially formed a development 3928 to 3948, although another initiating sell tail at 3828 took the market to 3800, midsession. Two way action through the morning session has seen an early development 3782 to 3800, with point of control at 3790.

The initiating sell tails and double development to the downside indicate the market is leaning lower this morning. Some development through the morning may continue although the close at the lows indicates the market also has potential to distribute lower this morning and is imbalanced.

Key resistance is at point of control 3790, previous development low 3800 and 3815. Key support is at previous POC 3768, 3760, 3741 and 3719.

The previous session value area was 3858 to 3882 and is currently 3792 to 3839.

Resistance levels 3782, 3790, 3800, 3806, 3815, 3828, 3840, 3855
Support levels 3768, 3760, 3748, 3741, 3734, 3719, 3712, 3691

Have a good day.

Aliom Pty Limited (ACN 123 876 291 AFSL 323182) does not warrant the accuracy, completeness or correctness of any information herein. In preparing this post, Aliom Pty Limited has not taken into account the investment objectives, financial situation or particular needs of any particular person. Before making an investment decision on the basis of information in this post you should consider whether the information is appropriate in light of your particular investment objectives, financial situation or particular needs. You may wish to consult a licenced advisor or accountant to assist your decision.


----------



## GMS

Good Evening,

The SPI200 Sept 09 traded today within the development of the previous session 3720 to 3755. Tonight the market has held support at the previous session point of control 3728 and trading higher into the development. Key resistance at previous point of control 3752, 3790, 3802 and 3828. Key support at 3719 the commencement of the responsive buy tail 7/6, 3691 and 3675.

The previous session value area was 3725 to 3744 and is currently 3734 to 3755.

Have a good day.

Aliom Pty Limited (ACN 123 876 291 AFSL 323182) does not warrant the accuracy, completeness or correctness of any information herein. In preparing this post, Aliom Pty Limited has not taken into account the investment objectives, financial situation or particular needs of any particular person. Before making an investment decision on the basis of information in this post you should consider whether the information is appropriate in light of your particular investment objectives, financial situation or particular needs. You may wish to consult a licenced advisor or accountant to assist your decision.


----------



## acouch

good morning all
todays road map
have a good day, and good trades
ac


----------



## rapt88

acouch said:


> good morning all
> todays road map
> have a good day, and good trades
> ac




Ah ! Good to see you back acouch.

I for one would prefer GMS had their own thread => not here.
(How about it Moderators ?)

Cheers

Rapt88


----------



## GMS

Good Evening,

The SPI200 Sept 09 contract initiated a sell tail break off the 3739 point of control midsession last night, trading to lows late in the session. On the re open today a responsive buy tail off 3668 rejected the break lower and responsive buying saw the market move back towards previous development lows at 3719. Tonight the market continues to trade within the previous 3719 to 3763 development, following the failure to distribute lower.

Key resistance is at 3739, 3752, 3763, 3790 and 3802. Key support at 3728, 3719, 3691 and 3668.

Have a good day.

Aliom Pty Limited (ACN 123 876 291 AFSL 323182) does not warrant the accuracy, completeness or correctness of any information herein. In preparing this post, Aliom Pty Limited has not taken into account the investment objectives, financial situation or particular needs of any particular person. Before making an investment decision on the basis of information in this post you should consider whether the information is appropriate in light of your particular investment objectives, financial situation or particular needs. You may wish to consult a licenced advisor or accountant to assist your decision.


----------



## Joolean

acouch said:


> good morning all
> todays road map
> have a good day, and good trades
> ac




Thanks for continuing Ac.

I respect your levels, so they give me something to measure my own outlook against.

Thanks,
Jules.


----------



## acouch

morning all
today's road map
have a great day, and good trades
ac


----------



## acouch

morning all
today's road map
have a great day, and good trades
ac


----------



## acouch

Morning all,
Monday's road map, very similar to Friday's
have a great weekend and take care
ac


----------



## GMS

Good Morning,

The SPI200 Sept 09 contract continued to trade within the 3719 to 3763 development Friday night. A responsive buy tail off 3723 saw responsive buying take the market higher back into the development to close at the session high of 3754.

The market has continued to develop in recent sessions and is becoming efficient. In theory as the market moves towards efficiency it is ready to begin distributing to a new development, and is something to be mindful of today.

The close at 3754 is key resistance on the daily charts. A break sees key resistance at 3782 then 3828. Key support at 3723 and 3693.

The previous session value area was 3733 to 3760 and is currently 3731 to 3748.

Resistance levels 3763, 3770, 3782, 3796, 3809, 3815, 3828
Support levels 3750, 3741, 3723, 3717, 3708, 3693, 3668


Have a good day.



Aliom Pty Limited (ACN 123 876 291 AFSL 323182) does not warrant the accuracy, completeness or correctness of any information herein. In preparing this post, Aliom Pty Limited has not taken into account the investment objectives, financial situation or particular needs of any particular person. Before making an investment decision on the basis of information in this post you should consider whether the information is appropriate in light of your particular investment objectives, financial situation or particular needs. You may wish to consult a licenced advisor or accountant to assist your decision.


----------



## acouch

good morning all,
today's road map
have a great day, and good trades
ac


----------



## GMS

Good Morning,

The SPI200 Sept 09 contract broke through the development low at 3719 yesterday to key support at 3693. Overnight the market again the market rejected another move below 3693. An initiating buy tail at 3726 propelled the market back into the development, with the market closing at development highs, and leaving the question begging will it attempt another breakout of the development, and distribute higher.

Key resistance is 3782, 3797 and 3828. Key support at 3754-3750, 3723 and 3693.

The previous session value area was 3715 to 3748 and is currently 3704 to 3748.


Have a good day.


Aliom Pty Limited (ACN 123 876 291 AFSL 323182) does not warrant the accuracy, completeness or correctness of any information herein. In preparing this post, Aliom Pty Limited has not taken into account the investment objectives, financial situation or particular needs of any particular person. Before making an investment decision on the basis of information in this post you should consider whether the information is appropriate in light of your particular investment objectives, financial situation or particular needs. You may wish to consult a licenced advisor or accountant to assist your decision.


----------



## acouch

morning all,
today's road map
have a great day, and good trades
ac


----------



## GMS

Good Morning, 

The SPI Sept 09 broke through the development high yesterday starting a new distribution higher. Late in the session a responsive sell tail triggered at 3828. On the open overnight the market held support near 3828 and continued to distribute higher, to trigger another responsive sell tail at 3878.

Theoretically the responsive sell tail at 3878 indicates rejection of the upside move and the market moving back into the 3851 to 3878 development traded overnight. The close at 3882 puts a question mark over this as indicates the market was still distributing and imbalanced on the close.

Key resistance is at 3891, previous development high 3902, 3920 and 3955. Key support at 3864, 3855 and 3828.

Have a good day.




Aliom Pty Limited (ACN 123 876 291 AFSL 323182) does not warrant the accuracy, completeness or correctness of any information herein. In preparing this post, Aliom Pty Limited has not taken into account the investment objectives, financial situation or particular needs of any particular person. Before making an investment decision on the basis of information in this post you should consider whether the information is appropriate in light of your particular investment objectives, financial situation or particular needs. You may wish to consult a licenced advisor or accountant to assist your decision.


----------



## acouch

good morning all
today's road map
have a great day, and good trades
ac


----------



## acouch

yesterdays morning road map in its final stages
ac


----------



## acouch

good morning all
today's road map
have a great day, and good trades
ac


----------



## acouch

morning all,
Monday's road map
have a great weekend and take care
ac


----------



## acouch

good morning all
today's road map
have a great day, and good trades
ac


----------



## MONEYKING

acouch said:


> good morning all
> today's road map
> have a great day, and good trades
> ac




Hi could you please give me some more info on the road map that you are plotting.Are you a day trader if so i would like to talk to you.


----------



## acouch

MONEYKING said:


> Hi could you please give me some more info on the road map that you are plotting.Are you a day trader if so i would like to talk to you.




yes i am a scalper, and if it turns into a bigger trade this is great as i trail price..

i use the road map for direction re LIS..a wonderful tool..
i trade a 5 tic chart..and love it..
talk to me 
ac


----------



## acouch

good morning all
today's road map, as you
can see it is similar to yesterday's
price has just done a circle in 24hrs.
have a great day, and good trades.
ac

oops wrong chart posted..
new one below
sorry


----------



## acouch

acouch said:


> good morning all
> today's road map, as you
> can see it is similar to yesterday's
> price has just done a circle in 24hrs.
> have a great day, and good trades.
> ac
> 
> oops wrong chart posted..
> new one below
> sorry




have to write something...before i can repost chart..this should do it
ac


----------



## GMS

Good Morning,

The SPI200 Sept 09 contract traded overnight within the previous session development 4009 to 4053. 

A responsive sell tail triggered midsession at 4053, saw the market extend a single tail print to 4066. Selling back into the development took the market back to the 4014 session low. The market went out 4044.

The market has continued to trade the 4009 to 4053 development and is balanced. Key resistance at 4053, 4075, 4121 and 4166. Key support at 4025, 4009, 3996 and previous development low 3955.

The previous session value area was 4018 to 4040 and is currently 4023 to 4050.

Have a good day.



Aliom Pty Limited (ACN 123 876 291 AFSL 323182) does not warrant the accuracy, completeness or correctness of any information herein. In preparing this post, Aliom Pty Limited has not taken into account the investment objectives, financial situation or particular needs of any particular person. Before making an investment decision on the basis of information in this post you should consider whether the information is appropriate in light of your particular investment objectives, financial situation or particular needs. You may wish to consult a licenced advisor or accountant to assist your decision.


----------



## MONEYKING

acouch said:


> yes i am a scalper, and if it turns into a bigger trade this is great as i trail price..
> 
> i use the road map for direction re LIS..a wonderful tool..
> i trade a 5 tic chart..and love it..
> talk to me
> ac




i use 5 minute and run the xjo-on 2 minute and i must always just make sure on.Sep’09 SPI fair value is around 31.42 under cash.i will test the 5 tic tomorrow.today's trading attach.

SPI Support levels 4024, 4005/08*, 3990, 3975, 3961, 3950/52**, 3938
SPI Resistance levels 4058/62***, 4074, 4087, 4105/10**, 4132, 4143, 4157/60**


----------



## acouch

good morning all
today's road map
have a great day, and good trades
ac


----------



## GMS

Good Morning,

The SPI Sept 09 contract has continued to trade within the 4009 to 4053 development overnight. A responsive buy tail triggered at 4007 early in the overnight session, where responsive buying took the market back into the development.

Key resistance is at 4053, 4075, 4121 and 4166. Key support at 4025, 4007-09, 3996 and 3955.

The previous session value area was 4020 to 4044 and is currently 4010 to 4031.

The continuation of trading within the 4009 to 4053 development indicates the market is balanced. The market is now moving towards efficiency and the risk is of a break to distribution and imbalance off the point of control in this development which is 4025.


Have a good day.


Aliom Pty Limited (ACN 123 876 291 AFSL 323182) does not warrant the accuracy, completeness or correctness of any information herein. In preparing this post, Aliom Pty Limited has not taken into account the investment objectives, financial situation or particular needs of any particular person. Before making an investment decision on the basis of information in this post you should consider whether the information is appropriate in light of your particular investment objectives, financial situation or particular needs. You may wish to consult a licenced advisor or accountant to assist your decision.


----------



## acouch

good morning all
today's road map
have a great day, and good trades
ac


----------



## GMS

Good Morning,

The SPI Sept 09 continued to trade within the 4009 to 4053 development yesterday and early in the overnight session. An initiating buy tail was triggered at 4057, breaking the market out of the development to distribution and imbalance. A responsive sell tail at 4120 late in the session capped the extension and the responsive selling has taken the market lower into the close.

The market has closed distributing and imbalanced. The double development overnight indicates potential for a continuation of the distribution higher.

Key resistance is at 4096, 4120, 4142, 4150/58, 4165, key support 4082, 4070, 4057/4053, 4041 and 4028.

Have a good day.



Aliom Pty Limited (ACN 123 876 291 AFSL 323182) does not warrant the accuracy, completeness or correctness of any information herein. In preparing this post, Aliom Pty Limited has not taken into account the investment objectives, financial situation or particular needs of any particular person. Before making an investment decision on the basis of information in this post you should consider whether the information is appropriate in light of your particular investment objectives, financial situation or particular needs. You may wish to consult a licenced advisor or accountant to assist your decision.


----------



## acouch

updated road map from this morning,

so you can visually see how it has gone


throughout the day..
ac


----------



## acouch

good morning all
Monday's road map
have a great weekend and take care
ac


----------



## GMS

Good Morning,

The SPI200 Sept 09 contract failed to continue the distribution higher on Friday, succumbing to responsive selling back to within the previous development high at 4053. Friday night the market has begun to develop, although this development is immature.

Key resistance is at 4112, 4120, 4142 4150/58 and 4165. Key support at the current point of control 4091, the previous session POC and overnight low 4065/66, 4053 and 4042.

Have a good day.



Aliom Pty Limited (ACN 123 876 291 AFSL 323182) does not warrant the accuracy, completeness or correctness of any information herein. In preparing this post, Aliom Pty Limited has not taken into account the investment objectives, financial situation or particular needs of any particular person. Before making an investment decision on the basis of information in this post you should consider whether the information is appropriate in light of your particular investment objectives, financial situation or particular needs. You may wish to consult a licenced advisor or accountant to assist your decision.


----------



## acouch

monday's road map update at the eod..
ac


----------



## acouch

good morning all
today's road map
have a great day, and good trades
ac


----------



## GMS

Good Morning,

The SPI200 Sept 09 traded back to the high side of the July 24th distribution yesterday and overnight, and developing.

Key resistance is at 4129, 4142, 4150/58 and 4165. Key support at the current point of control, 4115, 4099, 4091 and 4066/65.

The market has traded a development 4091 to 4029 yesterday and overnight, with the point of control 4110-4115. The focus is now on the market’s movement off this point of control indicating the next distributive move. 

Have a good day.



Aliom Pty Limited (ACN 123 876 291 AFSL 323182) does not warrant the accuracy, completeness or correctness of any information herein. In preparing this post, Aliom Pty Limited has not taken into account the investment objectives, financial situation or particular needs of any particular person. Before making an investment decision on the basis of information in this post you should consider whether the information is appropriate in light of your particular investment objectives, financial situation or particular needs. You may wish to consult a licenced advisor or accountant to assist your decision.


----------



## squeezed out

acouch can u please explain your roadmaps??

ie. important points (like the big ovals) what do they represent?.. how do u trade off them?.. and how do u calculate your 'maps'

they honestly make no sense to me.

are they based on a tech indicator?


----------



## MONEYKING

acouch said:


> good morning all
> today's road map
> have a great day, and good trades
> ac




Expected general range  SPI today is 4090 - 4143


----------



## acouch

squeezed out said:


> acouch can u please explain your roadmaps??
> 
> ie. important points (like the big ovals) what do they represent?.. how do u trade off them?.. and how do u calculate your 'maps'
> 
> they honestly make no sense to me.
> 
> are they based on a tech indicator?




i show the ovals so you can see where the price comes from..
each no if you look back on other charts i have posted eod..show you how
all these nos are strong support or resistance..
as price hits these nos you would assume a retrace..
the red line is the LIS..(line in sand.) above you are looking for longs. below you are looking for shorts..
the road map is set up at the beginning of the contract and last the 3 months , i use Medianlines, on most charting packages they are called pitchfork..
hope this helps you with the understanding of my road map..
take care out there
ac


----------



## acouch

good morning all
today's road map it is very similar to
yesterdays road map, as it has done a 24hr loop..
but i will post it all the same
have a great day, and good trades
ac


----------



## MONEYKING

acouch said:


> good morning all
> today's road map it is very similar to
> yesterdays road map, as it has done a 24hr loop..
> but i will post it all the same
> have a great day, and good trades
> ac




Good morning the SPI expected range for today 4094-4140 a day for shorting .I am trying the pitchfork today.


----------



## GMS

Good Morning,

The SPI200 Sept 09 contract continued to distribute higher yesterday outside the establishing development. On the open overnight the distribution continued, and was rejected. An initiating sell tail triggered at 4138, and the market traded back into the 4091 to 4129 development, to a session low of 4090. Responsive buying through the morning has the market closing just above the 4115 point of control.

Key resistance is at 4129, 4139, 4150/58, 4165 and 4182. Key support at the point of control 4115, 4106, 4099, 4091 and 4082.

The close at 4119 leaves the market within the development and balanced. 

The market profile chart attached above shows the development over recent sessions, with the blue line point of control at 4115. The focus as this development continues is for a break off the point of control and a new distributive move outside the development.


Have a good day.



Aliom Pty Limited (ACN 123 876 291 AFSL 323182) does not warrant the accuracy, completeness or correctness of any information herein. In preparing this post, Aliom Pty Limited has not taken into account the investment objectives, financial situation or particular needs of any particular person. Before making an investment decision on the basis of information in this post you should consider whether the information is appropriate in light of your particular investment objectives, financial situation or particular needs. You may wish to consult a licenced advisor or accountant to assist your decision.


----------



## acouch

MONEYKING said:


> Good morning the SPI expected range for today 4094-4140 a day for shorting .I am trying the pitchfork today.





looking forward to seeing your chart, well worth the effort.
ac


----------



## MONEYKING

acouch said:


> looking forward to seeing your chart, well worth the effort.
> ac




hi acouch
i would like to see youre trading platform (daily chart) i am making a good living out of trading but i would like to see how other people are doing it.here is my chart of today's trading those buys and sells is the real thing no paper trading i am trading for a living that's all i do.


----------



## acouch

MONEYKING said:


> hi acouch
> i would like to see youre trading platform (daily chart) i am making a good living out of trading but i would like to see how other people are doing it.here is my chart of today's trading those buys and sells is the real thing no paper trading i am trading for a living that's all i do.




hi moneyking,

i don't think many on this forum paper trade, but maybe they do..
the reason i was interested to see your chart, was not to see how you trade
by the way, was to see the  pitchfork on your chart..
i am not interested on how you trade during the day, that is your business not mine.
the road map that i post is a daily chart 24hr..i use that for targets etc, but i trade a lot smaller time frame chart...
have a great day, and take care
ac


----------



## acouch

good morning all,
today's road map
have a great day, and good trades
ac


----------



## GMS

Good Morning,

The SPI200 Sept 09 contract traded to the current development low 4091 yesterday. Overnight the break through the development low triggered a responsive buy tail at 4083 and the market traded higher back into the development, finding resistance at the 4115 point of control.

Key resistance is at the previous sessions point of control 4115, 4129 and 4139 and 4150/58. Key support at 4099, development low 4091, 4082 and previous POC 4066/65 and previous development high 4053.

The break lower at 4pm yesterday off the 4115 point of control indicates the market may have reached efficiency in the current development and is poised for a new distribution. Overnight the market attempted this distribution lower and failed. The question is will it make another attempt today?


Have a good day.



Aliom Pty Limited (ACN 123 876 291 AFSL 323182) does not warrant the accuracy, completeness or correctness of any information herein. In preparing this post, Aliom Pty Limited has not taken into account the investment objectives, financial situation or particular needs of any particular person. Before making an investment decision on the basis of information in this post you should consider whether the information is appropriate in light of your particular investment objectives, financial situation or particular needs. You may wish to consult a licenced advisor or accountant to assist your decision.


----------



## acouch

good morning all
today's road map
have a great day and good trades
ac


----------



## GMS

Good Morning,

The SPI200 Sept. 09 contract broke out of the development yesterday on an initiating buy tail at 4150. Overnight the market triggered another initiating buy tail at 4163 with the distribution extending to 4228 midsession. Responsive selling has featured through the morning and into the close has the market trading back inside the distribution and imbalanced. 

Key resistance is at 4203, 4214, the current point of control 4220, previous point of control 4230/38, 4249, 4270, 4278 and 4286. Key support at 4182, 4162, 4154/50, 4129, previous POC 4115 and 4099.

The previous value area was 4092 to 4137 and is currently 4174 to 4217.


Have a good day.


Aliom Pty Limited (ACN 123 876 291 AFSL 323182) does not warrant the accuracy, completeness or correctness of any information herein. In preparing this post, Aliom Pty Limited has not taken into account the investment objectives, financial situation or particular needs of any particular person. Before making an investment decision on the basis of information in this post you should consider whether the information is appropriate in light of your particular investment objectives, financial situation or particular needs. You may wish to consult a licenced advisor or accountant to assist your decision.


----------



## acouch

good morning all
Monday's road map
have a great weekend and take care
ac


----------



## GMS

Good Morning,

On Friday the SPI200 Sept 09 contract began to develop following the distribution higher the previous session. Friday night the development continued and is 4171 to 4128. The market closed balanced.

Key resistance is at 4214, 4220, 4230/38, 4249, 4270, 4278 and 4286. Key support is at the current session point of control 4196, 4182, 4171, 4162, 4154/50

The previous session value area (70% of session volume) was 4177 to 4214 and is currently 4187 to 4204.

Have a good day.



Aliom Pty Limited (ACN 123 876 291 AFSL 323182) does not warrant the accuracy, completeness or correctness of any information herein. In preparing this post, Aliom Pty Limited has not taken into account the investment objectives, financial situation or particular needs of any particular person. Before making an investment decision on the basis of information in this post you should consider whether the information is appropriate in light of your particular investment objectives, financial situation or particular needs. You may wish to consult a licenced advisor or accountant to assist your decision.


----------



## acouch

how our road map finished on close today..
ac


----------



## acouch

good morning all
today's road map
have a great day, and good trades
ac


----------



## GMS

Good Morning,

The SPI200 Sept 09 contract continued the distribution higher yesterday, although a late session responsive sell tail triggered at 4240, where responsive selling took the market back into the development in the close. 

Overnight the market held support at the previous session point of control 4202, in the opening phase. An initiating buy tail triggered at 4220, and the market distributed higher through the session. Responsive sell tail triggered at 4277 where responsive selling has market trade lower late in the morning to close at 4266. 

Key resistance today is at previous point of control 4278-4288, previous development high 4302, 4318, 4325, previous development low 4334, 4349 and 4363. Key support at 4258, current session point of control 4240, 4233, and previous development high 4228, 4220, 4214 and 4202.

The previous session value area was 4192 to 4226 and is currently 4227 to 4264.

Have a good day.




Aliom Pty Limited (ACN 123 876 291 AFSL 323182) does not warrant the accuracy, completeness or correctness of any information herein. In preparing this post, Aliom Pty Limited has not taken into account the investment objectives, financial situation or particular needs of any particular person. Before making an investment decision on the basis of information in this post you should consider whether the information is appropriate in light of your particular investment objectives, financial situation or particular needs. You may wish to consult a licenced advisor or accountant to assist your decision.


----------



## acouch

good morning all
today's road map
have a great day. and good trades
ac


----------



## GMS

Good Morning,

The SPI200 Sept 09 contract continued to distribute higher yesterday, to previous development high 4302, where responsive selling took the market lower and develop through the course of the session. Overnight the market rejected the downside at key support 4233, and trading through the morning was higher into development which is now 4240 to 4296.

Key resistance is at 4278/88, 4302, 4318, 4325, previous development low 4334, 4349 and 4363. Key support at previous session value area 4268, 4258, current point of control 4245, 4233, previous development high 4228, 4220, 4214 and 4202.

The previous session value area was 4238 to 4284 and is currently 4241 to 4271.

Have a good day.


Aliom Pty Limited (ACN 123 876 291 AFSL 323182) does not warrant the accuracy, completeness or correctness of any information herein. In preparing this post, Aliom Pty Limited has not taken into account the investment objectives, financial situation or particular needs of any particular person. Before making an investment decision on the basis of information in this post you should consider whether the information is appropriate in light of your particular investment objectives, financial situation or particular needs. You may wish to consult a licenced advisor or accountant to assist your decision.


----------



## acouch

road map updated eod..
have a great evening
ac


----------



## acouch

good morning all,
today's road map 
have a great day, and good trades
ac


----------



## GMS

Good Morning,

The SPI200 Sept 09 contract failed to distribute higher yesterday triggering a responsive sell tail at 4292, to take the market back into the current 4240 to 4296 development. A responsive buy tail was triggered at 4234 late in the session to initiate a distribution lower. Overnight the market continued the distribute lower where responsive buying broke the fall at the previous point of control 4196 midsession, and took the market higher through the morning to be capped at the prior development low 4240.

Key resistance is at current point of control 4234, previous development low 4240, 4258, 4268, 4280, 4288, 4296, 4302, 4818. Key support at 4220, 4214, 4202, 4196, 4182, 4171, 4163, 4158/50.

The previous session value area was 4240 to 4275 and is currently lower 4209 to 4234.


Have a good day.



Aliom Pty Limited (ACN 123 876 291 AFSL 323182) does not warrant the accuracy, completeness or correctness of any information herein. In preparing this post, Aliom Pty Limited has not taken into account the investment objectives, financial situation or particular needs of any particular person. Before making an investment decision on the basis of information in this post you should consider whether the information is appropriate in light of your particular investment objectives, financial situation or particular needs. You may wish to consult a licenced advisor or accountant to assist your decision.


----------



## acouch

good morning all
today's road map
have a great day, and good trades
ac


----------



## GMS

Good Morning,

The SPI200 Sept 09 contract traded back into the 4240 to 4296 development on the open yesterday, trading to the development high, before rotating back to the low side of the development 4249. A late session rotation higher triggered a responsive sell tail at 4303 to close out at 4291.

Overnight the market once again attempted to distribute higher to trigger another responsive sell tail at 4320, and rotate back into the development where a responsive buy tail at 4270 rejected the break and the market closed back in the development this morning. The market is balanced.

Resistance is at 4280, 4288, development high 4296, 4302, 4318, 4325, 4334, 4349, 4363. Support at 4270, previous point of control 4263, 4249, 4242, 4234, 4228, 4220.

The previous session value area was 4215 to 4270 and is currently 4279 to 4306.


Have a good day.


Aliom Pty Limited (ACN 123 876 291 AFSL 323182) does not warrant the accuracy, completeness or correctness of any information herein. In preparing this post, Aliom Pty Limited has not taken into account the investment objectives, financial situation or particular needs of any particular person. Before making an investment decision on the basis of information in this post you should consider whether the information is appropriate in light of your particular investment objectives, financial situation or particular needs. You may wish to consult a licenced advisor or accountant to assist your decision.


----------



## acouch

good morning all
Monday's road map
have a great weekend, and take care
ac


----------



## blackfred

hmmmm.probability of being profitable trading based on these 'road maps' of possible support and resistance from 45 degree lines that seem to be drawn totally random??


----------



## acouch

blackfred said:


> hmmmm.probability of being profitable trading based on these 'road maps' of possible support and resistance from 45 degree lines that seem to be drawn totally random??




hi blackfred
the lines eg: pitchforks are not drawn at random..they stem from the beginning of the contract,
and carried forward into time..
and as you can see if you follow, they are pretty accurate..
such a simple tool and works so well..

next quarter a new set will be placed and carried forward each day for the dec contract..
have a great day
and take care
ac


----------



## GMS

Good Morning,

On Friday the SPI200 Sept 09 contract traded lower to the previous session point of control at 4233, where responsive buying took the market higher into the current 4240 to 4296 development. 

The Friday night session saw the market again reject a move to the downside with responsive buying at 4221. An initiating buy tail triggered at 4269 and the market extended to 4322 the trigger of a responsive sell tail, that saw the market rotate lower for the remainder of the session. The market has rejected a distribution through 4320/22 on two consecutive sessions, although the close above the 4240 to 4296 development indicates the market isn’t balanced and may attempt another distribution higher.


Key resistance is current point of control 4315, 4322, 4334, 4349, 4363, 4386, 4392, 4417 and prior point of control 4432/39. Key support at 4302, 4296, 4288, 4280, 4269 initiating break level, 4260, 4249, 4233 and 4228.

The previous session value area was 4250 to 4299 and is currently 4243 to 4310. 


Have a good day.



Aliom Pty Limited (ACN 123 876 291 AFSL 323182) does not warrant the accuracy, completeness or correctness of any information herein. In preparing this post, Aliom Pty Limited has not taken into account the investment objectives, financial situation or particular needs of any particular person. Before making an investment decision on the basis of information in this post you should consider whether the information is appropriate in light of your particular investment objectives, financial situation or particular needs. You may wish to consult a licenced advisor or accountant to assist your decision.


----------



## MONEYKING

acouch said:


> hi moneyking,




Hi acouch i try the Andrew's pitchfork but i am not sure how to plot it do you start plotting it on every start of the day before  i am using 5 minute charts .I plot the pich fork on todays trading .


----------



## acouch

MONEYKING said:


> Hi acouch i try the Andrew's pitchfork but i am not sure how to plot it do you start plotting it on every start of the day before  i am using 5 minute charts .I plot the pich fork on todays trading .





this site will be of help to you moneyking..
you will have to log in..but it is a free forum..

http://www.marketgeometry.com/forum/indexo.php

for my road map i only extend the pitchforks that have been on the chart since the beginning of the contract..
but for day or intra..you can place them a.b.c ..but you are not held to one set of pitchforks if they are not following the plot..
as the market does'nt stay the same, as we all know..
but i think you will get a better handle of the andrews pitchforks on that site i have given you above
take care
ac


----------



## MONEYKING

acouch said:


> this site will be of help to you moneyking..
> you will have to log in..but it is a free forum..
> 
> http://www.marketgeometry.com/forum/indexo.php
> 
> for my road map i only extend the pitchforks that have been on the chart since the beginning of the contract..
> but for day or intra..you can place them a.b.c ..but you are not held to one set of pitchforks if they are not following the plot..
> as the market does'nt stay the same, as we all know..
> but i think you will get a better handle of the andrews pitchforks on that site i have given you above
> take care
> ac




Thanks very much this marketgeometry is exactly what i was looking for


----------



## acouch

good morning all
today's road map
have a great day, and good trades
ac


----------



## GMS

Good Morning,

The SPI200 Sept 09 contract failed to distribute higher yesterday to trade back into the current established development. Overnight a responsive sell tail triggered at 4278 and responsive buy tail at 4248, sees the market continue the trade within the 4240 to 4296 development and is balanced. 

Resistance levels today 4264, 4271, 4278, 4288, 4296, 4302, 4316, 4322 and 4334. Support levels at current point of control 4260, 4249, 4242, 4234, 4228, 4220, 4209, 4196 and 4188.

The previous session value area was 4252 to 4309 and is currently 4254 to 4270.


Have a good day.



Aliom Pty Limited (ACN 123 876 291 AFSL 323182) does not warrant the accuracy, completeness or correctness of any information herein. In preparing this post, Aliom Pty Limited has not taken into account the investment objectives, financial situation or particular needs of any particular person. Before making an investment decision on the basis of information in this post you should consider whether the information is appropriate in light of your particular investment objectives, financial situation or particular needs. You may wish to consult a licenced advisor or accountant to assist your decision.


----------



## acouch

this morning's road map updated eod..
ac


----------



## acouch

good morning all,
today's road map
have a great day, and good trades
ac


----------



## GMS

Good Morning,

The SPI200 Sept 09 contract continued to trade within the established development through the morning yesterday. A mid afternoon initiating buy tail off 4292 had the market distribute and close above the development. Overnight the market succumbed to responsive selling early to trade back into the development, with an initiating sell tail triggered at key level 4296. Two way action through the morning sees the market close at 4275. 

The established development is now 4240 to 4322. A double distribution to the downside overnight indicates potential for further weakness.

Resistance levels current point of control 4276, 4282, 4288, 4296, 4302, 4316, 4322, 4334, 4349. Support levels 4271, previous session point of control 4261, 4249, development low 4240, 4234, 4228, 4220, 4214, 4196, 4182.

The previous session value area was 4254 to 4282 and is currently 4274 to 4308.


Have a good day.



Aliom Pty Limited (ACN 123 876 291 AFSL 323182) does not warrant the accuracy, completeness or correctness of any information herein. In preparing this post, Aliom Pty Limited has not taken into account the investment objectives, financial situation or particular needs of any particular person. Before making an investment decision on the basis of information in this post you should consider whether the information is appropriate in light of your particular investment objectives, financial situation or particular needs. You may wish to consult a licenced advisor or accountant to assist your decision.


----------



## acouch

road map eod
ac


----------



## MONEYKING

Hi acounh

Thanks for the pitchfork info it works well still need to do it like yours but i will get there.Here is my chart of today on a 2-minute time frame it really helps me a lot.What is your opinion on the Ausie market it is over bode and is breaking all the so cal charting rules-I believe strongly that oversees traders is jumping on the Ausie market when the Dow-Nasdaq  is falling i was up until 03h00 this morning and there was really slow orders coming in on the SP200.Rio bad news and BHP did not even evect oure market .


----------



## acouch

MONEYKING said:


> Hi acouch
> 
> Thanks for the pitchfork info it works well still need to do it like yours but i will get there.Here is my chart of today on a 2-minute time frame it really helps me a lot.What is your opinion on the Aussie market it is overbought and is breaking all the so cal charting rules-I believe strongly that oversees traders is jumping on the Aussie market when the Dow-Nasdaq  is falling i was up until 03h00 this morning and there was really slow orders coming in on the SP200.Rio bad news and BHP did not even effect our market .





i try not to listen to news moneyking..as usually it has already been played into the charts..
and usually i am well and truly in bed by then  
i set the road map up after sycom close ..and i follow that pretty much..with a smaller time frame chart..
each day is a new day for trading..as long as it trends..and not sideways i am happy 
i am glad that you are getting into andrews pitchforks..
it takes time but if you are prepared to put the time in, it will serve you well..
have a great evening
ac


----------



## acouch

good morning all
today;s road map
have a great day, and good trades
ac


----------



## GMS

Good Morning,

The SPI200 Sept 09 contract traded within the established 4240 to 4322 development yesterday. Overnight a midsession initiating buy tail triggered off 4315, taking the market through the development high and distribute higher. Some development has taken place through the morning in a 4329 to 4361 range, although the market remains imbalanced.

Resistance levels at previous development low/high level 4349, 4363, 4370, 4386, previous points of control 4417 and 4430, 4445. Support levels at previous responsive buy tail and current POC 4333/35, 4328, 4322, 4316, 4302, 4296, 4276, 4271.

The previous session value area was 4276 to 4308 and is currently 4294 to 4344.


Have a good day.




Aliom Pty Limited (ACN 123 876 291 AFSL 323182) does not warrant the accuracy, completeness or correctness of any information herein. In preparing this post, Aliom Pty Limited has not taken into account the investment objectives, financial situation or particular needs of any particular person. Before making an investment decision on the basis of information in this post you should consider whether the information is appropriate in light of your particular investment objectives, financial situation or particular needs. You may wish to consult a licenced advisor or accountant to assist your decision.


----------



## acouch

today's road map..we have already gone
into sycom..i have been out
but you can see what she is up to..1 tic of lod..
ac


----------



## acouch

good morning all
today's road map
have a great day, and good trades
ac


----------



## GMS

Good Morning,

The SPI200 Sept 09 contract initiated a buy tail at 4371 yesterday continuing to distribute higher through the session. A late session responsive sell tail at 4400 capped the advance. Overnight the distribution continued with further initiating buying off the 4400 level. A responsive sell tail triggered at 4454 to cap the session advance, and two way action saw some development the remainder of the session in a 4426 to 4451 range.


Key resistance is at 4454, 4462, 4476, 4485 previous development high 4492, 4510, 4519. Key support at previous development low 4439, 4431, 4421, 4409, 4400, 4395, 4386, 4371 and 4363.

The previous session value area was 4306 to 4372, and is currently 4415 to 4446.


Have a good day.



Aliom Pty Limited (ACN 123 876 291 AFSL 323182) does not warrant the accuracy, completeness or correctness of any information herein. In preparing this post, Aliom Pty Limited has not taken into account the investment objectives, financial situation or particular needs of any particular person. Before making an investment decision on the basis of information in this post you should consider whether the information is appropriate in light of your particular investment objectives, financial situation or particular needs. You may wish to consult a licenced advisor or accountant to assist your decision.


----------



## acouch

good morning all,
Monday's road map
have a great weekend and take care
ac


----------



## GMS

Good Morning,

A responsive sell tail at 4470 capped the advance of the SPI200 Sept 09 contract Friday morning, to have the market rotate lower and develop through the course of the session. The commencement of the Friday night session, saw further development, until an initiating sell tail trigger midsession at 4416 took the market lower. Responsive buying off key level 4370 had the market rotate back although not within the development. A double distribution Friday night to the downside indicates potential to the downside.

Resistance levels 4400 13/8 responsive sell tail, 4409, 4416* overnight initial sell tail, 4430, previous session POC 4436, 4448, 4459, 4470. Support at 4395, 4386, 4376, 4370/69, 4363, 4349, 4335, 4328, 4302, 4296.

The previous session value area was 4417 to 4451 and is currently 4379 to 4430.

Have a good day.


Aliom Pty Limited (ACN 123 876 291 AFSL 323182) does not warrant the accuracy, completeness or correctness of any information herein. In preparing this post, Aliom Pty Limited has not taken into account the investment objectives, financial situation or particular needs of any particular person. Before making an investment decision on the basis of information in this post you should consider whether the information is appropriate in light of your particular investment objectives, financial situation or particular needs. You may wish to consult a licenced advisor or accountant to assist your decision.


----------



## acouch

good morning all
today's road map
have a great day, and good trades
ac


----------



## GMS

Good Morning,

The SPI200 Sept 09 contract rejected an upside advance yesterday at 4416 the prior session initiating sell tail trigger. The market rotated back into the prior session range to trigger a responsive buy tail at 4362. Overnight the market broke a new distribution lower with two initiating sell tail triggers at 4352 and 4328. Two way action featured through the session with development in a range 4312 to 4351. 

Resistance is at commencement of initiating sell tail level 4328, 4335, 4339, 4352, 4362, 4369, 4376, 4386, 4395 and 4400. Support at commencement of initiating buy tail 4315 on 13/8, 4302, prior development high 4296, 4291, 4276, 4262 point of control 4262, 4253/50 and 4234.

The previous session point of control is 4374 to 4420 and is currently 4320 to 4347.


Have a good day.



Aliom Pty Limited (ACN 123 876 291 AFSL 323182) does not warrant the accuracy, completeness or correctness of any information herein. In preparing this post, Aliom Pty Limited has not taken into account the investment objectives, financial situation or particular needs of any particular person. Before making an investment decision on the basis of information in this post you should consider whether the information is appropriate in light of your particular investment objectives, financial situation or particular needs. You may wish to consult a licenced advisor or accountant to assist your decision.


----------



## acouch

updated road map eod trading
ac


----------



## acouch

good morning all
today's road map
have a great day, and good trades
ac


----------



## GMS

Good Morning,

The SPI Sept 09 contract opened yesterday holding support at key level 4315 to rotate back into the prior session development. Two way action featured through the session. Overnight the market continued to rotate within the development in a balanced session.

A break above 4379 sees the potential for a rotation back to 4401 initially, then 4435 the point of control on 14/8. A break below POC 4340 on 13/8 & 18/8, opens potential for rotation back to 4315.

Resistance is at 4385, 4396, 4400, 4409, 4416, 4430, 4435, 4448, 4459 and 4470. Support is at 4369, 4362, 4355/54, prior point of control 4340/38, 4328, 4315, 4302 and 4296.

The previous session value area was 4325 to 4351 and is currently 4352 to 4373.

Have a good day.



Aliom Pty Limited (ACN 123 876 291 AFSL 323182) does not warrant the accuracy, completeness or correctness of any information herein. In preparing this post, Aliom Pty Limited has not taken into account the investment objectives, financial situation or particular needs of any particular person. Before making an investment decision on the basis of information in this post you should consider whether the information is appropriate in light of your particular investment objectives, financial situation or particular needs. You may wish to consult a licenced advisor or accountant to assist your decision.


----------



## acouch

good morning all
today's road map
have a great day, and good trades
ac


----------



## GMS

Good Morning,

The SPI200 Sept 09 contract opened yesterday to rotate from key level 4379 to resistance at 4401. Responsive selling capped the advance with the market rotating back to support near 4479 and again another rotation higher, which was capped again. A late session initiating sell tail triggered at 4335, and the session closed with the market distributing lower. Overnight the market reopened to a continuation of the distribution (and imbalance) lower. An responsive buy tail triggered at key level 4315 and responsive buying capped the break lower. Some market development took place through the session 4315 to 4341, with an initiating buy tail triggering a rotation back into the prior session development.

The distribution lower yesterday has been rejected overnight with the market rotating back into the previous development.

Resistance is at 4396, 4401, 4409, 4416, 4430, 4435, 4448 and 4459. Support is 4379, 4369, 4359, overnight point of control 4342/40, 4328, 4315, 4302 and 4296.

The previous session value area was 4352 to 4388 and is currently 4322 to 4368. 


Have a good day.



Aliom Pty Limited (ACN 123 876 291 AFSL 323182) does not warrant the accuracy, completeness or correctness of any information herein. In preparing this post, Aliom Pty Limited has not taken into account the investment objectives, financial situation or particular needs of any particular person. Before making an investment decision on the basis of information in this post you should consider whether the information is appropriate in light of your particular investment objectives, financial situation or particular needs. You may wish to consult a licenced advisor or accountant to assist your decision.


----------



## Midas1

Hi GMS,

Could you share how you calculate the Value Area figures for the SPI please?


----------



## acouch

good morning all
today's road map
have a great day, and good trades
ac:couch


----------



## GMS

Good Morning,

The SPI Sept 09 contract, continued to rotate within the development yesterday, triggering a responsive sell tail again at 4396 to rotate lower through the session. Overnight the market rejected a break to the low side of the development early in the opening phase to rotate higher through the course of the session.

A break through 4335 has potential to rotate to 4362, then 4402. A break of 4315/10 has potential to rotate back to 4296, then 4271 and 4262.

Resistance is at 4344, 4354/55, 4362, 4369, 4379, 4386, 4396, 4402, 4409 and 4416. Support is at 4335, 4329, current session point of control 4319, 4315, 4310, 4296, 4291, 4276, 4262.

The previous session value area was 4329 to 4372 and is currently 4316 to 4338.


Have a good day.

Aliom Pty Limited (ACN 123 876 291 AFSL 323182) does not warrant the accuracy, completeness or correctness of any information herein. In preparing this post, Aliom Pty Limited has not taken into account the investment objectives, financial situation or particular needs of any particular person. Before making an investment decision on the basis of information in this post you should consider whether the information is appropriate in light of your particular investment objectives, financial situation or particular needs. You may wish to consult a licenced advisor or accountant to assist your decision.


----------



## GMS

Hello Midas,

The value area is 70% of the time price opportunities (trades) counted away from the point of control (median price of the session). Also known as the first standard deviation. 

My chart automatically gives me the value area levels, I don't claculate them manually.

I hope you find the reports helpful in your trading.

Cheers.


----------



## acouch

spi road map eod..a bit late


ac


----------



## acouch

good morning all
Monday's road map
have a great weekend and take care
a:couch


----------



## GMS

Good Morning,

The SPI200 Sept 09 contract triggered an initiating sell tail off 4336 Friday morning, and again at 4315 to distribute lower through the session. Responsive buying off 4229 rejected the break and the market rotated higher. On Friday night the market continued higher triggering an initiating buy tail off 4296 midsession, to trade the remainder of the session 4310 to 4330.

The close on Saturday indicates the market has again rejected the distribution lower to rotate back into the current development, where the development low is 4310/15. A continuation higher today sees rotation high 4349/54, then 4362 and 4402. A break below 4310 sees rotation back to 4296, then 4276 and 4262.

Resistance levels 4335, 4340, 4349/54, 4362,4369, 4379, 4386 and 4396. Support levels 4315/10, 4296, 4291, 4276, 4262, 4253, 4234, 4229.

The previous value area was 4262 to 4334 and is currently 4274 to 4320.

Have a good day.

Aliom Pty Limited (ACN 123 876 291 AFSL 323182) does not warrant the accuracy, completeness or correctness of any information herein. In preparing this post, Aliom Pty Limited has not taken into account the investment objectives, financial situation or particular needs of any particular person. Before making an investment decision on the basis of information in this post you should consider whether the information is appropriate in light of your particular investment objectives, financial situation or particular needs. You may wish to consult a licenced advisor or accountant to assist your decision.


----------



## acouch

good morning all
today's road map
have a great day, and good trades
ac


----------



## GMS

Good Morning,

The SPI200 Sept 09 contract traded higher in the established development yesterday triggering an initiating buy tail at 4346 off the open, to trade the bulk of the session in the 4361 to 4400 range. A late session responsive sell tail triggered at 4406 and the market closed 4419. Overnight the market developed in a 4400 to 4434 range, although an initiating sell tail off 4402 into the close this morning indicates the market may reject this new development and rotate lower. 

A rotation lower sees 4362, then 4349 and 4315/10. A rotation to the upside sees 4436, 4454 and 4492.

Resistance levels 4402, 4416, 4424, 4435, 4448, 4459, 4470, 4485, 4492 and 4510. Support levels 4396, 4379, 4369, 4362, 4355, 4346, 4335, 4327, 4315/10.

The previous session value area was 4294 to 4388, and 4410 to 4430.

I'm away tomorrow and Thursday, and will not be able to write the report. 

Have a good day.


Aliom Pty Limited (ACN 123 876 291 AFSL 323182) does not warrant the accuracy, completeness or correctness of any information herein. In preparing this post, Aliom Pty Limited has not taken into account the investment objectives, financial situation or particular needs of any particular person. Before making an investment decision on the basis of information in this post you should consider whether the information is appropriate in light of your particular investment objectives, financial situation or particular needs. You may wish to consult a licenced advisor or accountant to assist your decision.


----------



## acouch

good morning all,
today's road map
have a great day, and good trades
a:couch


----------



## acouch

how the road map finished eod trading
ac


----------



## acouch

good morning all
today's road map
have a great day, and good trades
ac


----------



## luckcity

OK acouch,
Gonna trade this on paper today 
LIS 4415, trade long above, short below!
j


----------



## acouch

luckcity said:


> OK acouch,
> Gonna trade this on paper today
> LIS 4415, trade long above, short below!
> j




nice lucky..hod 48 lod 06
even taking it off at first no of 33..nice points to be had..
and you had a great entry on the long at 15/16 with quite a nice stop below lod..
ac


----------



## luckcity

Not sure if this jpg will be seen inline or not, but will say that i followed the morning downtrend instead of going long.
missed the LIS bounce entry at around 11:21.
The rest of the day was too scattered for me, trying to just follow trends.
Hope to start trading one contract next week, using Sierra and IB.


----------



## luckcity

Yup you can see it inline, please excuse the mountain display style! 
BTW also is a range bar chart.
will check back in the morning for fridays road map
j


----------



## acouch

good morning all,
today's road map, you might notice some difference,
as i lost all my charts yesterday :-(
but i watched this chart yesterday, and seem to be going ok..
have a great day, and good trades
ac:


----------



## GMS

Good Morning,

The SPI200 Sept 09 contract opened overnight to trade above the responsive sell tail of 26/8, 4455, and again rejected the distribution higher at 4462 to rotate back into the current development. An initiating sell tail triggered at 4440, with a responsive buy tail off 4420 rejecting the break lower. A rotation back higher saw a responsive sell tail trigger again at 4463, and the market closing lower at 4453.

The market continued to rotate in the development overnight, that is now 4408 to 4462. A distribution to the upside sees resistance at 4492, 4510 and previous development low 4562. A rotation lower sees support at 4440, 4420 and 4406/02.

Resistance levels current point of control 4455, 4462, 4470, 4485, 4492, 4497, 4510, 4222, 4529, 4549. Support 4440, 4435, 4420, 4408, 4402, 4396, 4386, 4369, 4362.

Have a good day.


Aliom Pty Limited (ACN 123 876 291 AFSL 323182) does not warrant the accuracy, completeness or correctness of any information herein. In preparing this post, Aliom Pty Limited has not taken into account the investment objectives, financial situation or particular needs of any particular person. Before making an investment decision on the basis of information in this post you should consider whether the information is appropriate in light of your particular investment objectives, financial situation or particular needs. You may wish to consult a licenced advisor or accountant to assist your decision.


----------



## luckcity

acouch said:


> good morning all,
> today's road map, you might notice some difference,
> as i lost all my charts yesterday :-(
> but i watched this chart yesterday, and seem to be going ok..
> have a great day, and good trades
> ac:




ok let me know once your confident with the new setup acouch
j


----------



## acouch

luckcity said:


> ok let me know once your confident with the new setup acouch
> j




didnt do to bad lucky, we have moved in to sycom...
ac


----------



## acouch

good morning all,
Monday's road map
have a great weekend and take care
ac


----------



## luckcity

acouch said:


> didnt do to bad lucky, we have moved in to sycom...
> ac




Looking very good, i'm glad you didn't lose your skill.
i'd like to scalp a trend or two, acouch have you had any success with scalping 4 contracts at a time? I question if market depth is sufficient sometimes. 

One observation i've made in the limited time i've watched this market is that in the 10 minutes before 10 AM, the market can be dpended on being one directional, does anyone notice that as well?


----------



## acouch

luckcity said:


> Looking very good, i'm glad you didn't lose your skill.
> i'd like to scalp a trend or two, acouch have you had any success with scalping 4 contracts at a time? I question if market depth is sufficient sometimes.
> 
> One observation i've made in the limited time i've watched this market is that in the 10 minutes before 10 AM, the market can be dpended on being one directional, does anyone notice that as well?




i usually enter at market..as i am watching it all the time..so i don't have much trouble..
very rare do i take a trade at open..i like to see the cash open..
there are plenty of trades during the day, so there is no hurry, i like the market to come to me
ac


----------



## luckcity

Thanks for that input acouch,
I'm having relative success anticipating moves and placing stop orders ahead of projected moves, all very discretionary and simulated.
I am hoping the IB sim is accurate about market depth.
Sometimes size isn't discussed on boards so won't bug you about 4 contracts again, unless, of course,you didn't have the time to comment ;-> aka


----------



## luckcity

GMS said:


> sell tail trigger again at 4463




I was wanting to ask about the terms sell/buy tail, so I googled them, and along with search term "chart", your board entries came up top of the google listing, which signified to me, at least, that the terms are fairly unique.
Sorry if you may have defined them earlier in the 170 odd pages of this board subject, but what are buy and sell tails, and if they are based on candle charts, (perhaps they are candle "wicks"?) what is the intraday bar period you are using?


----------



## acouch

good morning all
today's road map
have a great day, and good trades
ac


----------



## GMS

Good Morning,

The SPI200 Sept 09 contract rotated back into the established development yesterday with a responsive sell tail triggered at 4522 early in the session. A late session responsive buy tail triggered at 4463. Overnight the market continued to rotate within the development.

A break of 4455 opens the possibility of a rotation back to 4428/22, then 4406 previous development highs. A rotation higher sees resistance at yesterday’s point of control 4497, then 4522.

Resistance levels 4463, 4470, 4485, 4497, 4510, 4522, 4535, 4549, 4561 and 4576. Support levels 4455, 4435, 4428, 4422, 4406, 4396, 4386, 4379, 4369 and 4362.


Have a good day.


Aliom Pty Limited (ACN 123 876 291 AFSL 323182) does not warrant the accuracy, completeness or correctness of any information herein. In preparing this post, Aliom Pty Limited has not taken into account the investment objectives, financial situation or particular needs of any particular person. Before making an investment decision on the basis of information in this post you should consider whether the information is appropriate in light of your particular investment objectives, financial situation or particular needs. You may wish to consult a licenced advisor or accountant to assist your decision.


----------



## GMS

Luck City,

The tails are single prints on a market profile chart.  Tails can be initiating or responsive in nature, and the break level (commencement) of a tail has the potential to act as resistance/support for the market in the future.

The Chicago Mercantile Exchange website has good educational material on market profile charting, if you would like an indepth inderstanding of the theory.

http://www.cmegroup.com/education/interactive/marketprofile/handbook.pdf

Cheers,

GMS


----------



## luckcity

GMS said:


> if you would like an indepth inderstanding





356 pages, yup that in depth!

thanks,
j

BTW did a search of the PDF and "tail" wasn't there....
I guess I'm just looking for too much tail!

thanks again


----------



## luckcity

Hi,
If anyone has any intraday tick files for SPI contracts, September and previous, please click on "luckcity" and send me a message.
Would like to do some charts replays using Sierra, the format is extension is *.scid, but I believe sierra can do format conversion.

Thanks,
j

Or if there is another source, please advise


----------



## acouch

good morning all
today's road map
have a great day, and good trades
ac


----------



## acouch

eod day road map
ac


----------



## acouch

good morning all
today;s road map
have a great day and good trades
ac


----------



## GMS

Good Morning,

The SPI200 Sept 09 contract opened yesterday to rotate off key level 4454 towards previous development high 4406. The market developed through the session within this range. Overnight another attempt to distribute below 4406 was rejected and the market continued to trade within the development.

The first rotation high is at 4455, a continuation opens up levels at 4463, 4492 and 4522. A break through 4406 opens possibility of a rotation to 4379, key level 4362, 4353 then 4315/10.


Resistance levels 4428, 4435, 4442, 4455, 4463, 4470, 4484, 4497, 4510 and 4522. Support levels 4415, 4406, 4402, 4397, 4386, 4379, 4369, 4362, 4353, 4346, 4335 4315/10.


Have a good day.



Aliom Pty Limited (ACN 123 876 291 AFSL 323182) does not warrant the accuracy, completeness or correctness of any information herein. In preparing this post, Aliom Pty Limited has not taken into account the investment objectives, financial situation or particular needs of any particular person. Before making an investment decision on the basis of information in this post you should consider whether the information is appropriate in light of your particular investment objectives, financial situation or particular needs. You may wish to consult a licenced advisor or accountant to assist your decision.


----------



## acouch

good morning all
today's road map
have a great day and good trades
ac


----------



## GMS

Good Morning,

The SPI200 Sept 09 contract continued to trade within the development yesterday and balanced. A midsession responsive buy tail off the 4420 saw the market trade higher into the development with a late session break off 4442 to close 4460.

The responsive buy tail off 4420 overnight was the prior session point of control, and indicates the market may now attempt a distributive break to the upside. The close overnight at 4460, is within the crucial range 4455 to 4463, of previous development highs on 26/8 and 27/8 and previous development lows 31/8 and 1/9. Can the market kick on through this crucial range today and distribute higher?

A break higher sees potential to rotate to 4492, then 4522 and 4561. A break back through 4455 has potential to rotate back to 4442, 4420 and 4406.

The previous session value area was 4411 to 4431 and is currently 4429 to 4450.

Have a good day.




Aliom Pty Limited (ACN 123 876 291 AFSL 323182) does not warrant the accuracy, completeness or correctness of any information herein. In preparing this post, Aliom Pty Limited has not taken into account the investment objectives, financial situation or particular needs of any particular person. Before making an investment decision on the basis of information in this post you should consider whether the information is appropriate in light of your particular investment objectives, financial situation or particular needs. You may wish to consult a licenced advisor or accountant to assist your decision.


----------



## acouch

road map eod trading
ac


----------



## acouch

good morning all
Monday's road map
have a great weekend, and take care
ac


----------



## GMS

Good Morning,

The SPI200 Sept 09 contract rotated lower into the development on Friday following the inability to distribute higher in the opening phase. A responsive buy tail triggered at key level 4420 late in the session breaking the move lower. On Friday night an initiating sell tail triggered at 4442, with responsive buying again rotating the market higher off the low 4420’s, to trade and close toward the high side of the current development.

The market has closed above just shy of the crucial range 4455 to 4463, of previous development highs on 26/8 and 27/8 and previous development lows 31/8 and 1/9. A double distribution towards the upside Friday night, indicates the potential for higher prices going forward. A continuation of the move sees resistance at 4492, 4522 and 4561. A break back below 4463/55 sees key support at 4442, 4420 and 4406.

Resistance levels 4472, 4484, 4496, 4510, 4522, 450, 4549, 4261, 4576
Support levels 4463, 4455, 4442, 4435, 4426, 4422/20, 4415, 4406, 4396, 4379


Have a good day.


Aliom Pty Limited (ACN 123 876 291 AFSL 323182) does not warrant the accuracy, completeness or correctness of any information herein. In preparing this post, Aliom Pty Limited has not taken into account the investment objectives, financial situation or particular needs of any particular person. Before making an investment decision on the basis of information in this post you should consider whether the information is appropriate in light of your particular investment objectives, financial situation or particular needs. You may wish to consult a licenced advisor or accountant to assist your decision.


----------



## acouch

spi road map at close today
ac


----------



## acouch

Good morning all.
today's road map is the same as Monday's as it hasn't finished its 24hr cycle
have a great day, and good trades
ac


----------



## GMS

Good Morning,

The SPI200 failed in an attempt to distribute higher yesterday on the open, rotating back into the established development to key support 4442. The afternoon session saw the market rotate off this support to close 4468. Overnight the market has distributed higher outside the established development closing at session highs and is imbalanced. There is potential for this new distribution to continue today.

A continuation of the distribution sees key resistance at 4496, then 4530, 4562 and 4622. A break back through 4475, opens possibility of a rotation back to 4455, 4442, and 4420.

Resistance levels 4496, 4510, 4519/22, 4530, 4549, 4561, 4576, 4589, 4600, 4622
Support levels 4475, 4463, 4455, 4442, 4435, 4426, 4422/20, 4415, 4406, 4396


Have a good day.



Aliom Pty Limited (ACN 123 876 291 AFSL 323182) does not warrant the accuracy, completeness or correctness of any information herein. In preparing this post, Aliom Pty Limited has not taken into account the investment objectives, financial situation or particular needs of any particular person. Before making an investment decision on the basis of information in this post you should consider whether the information is appropriate in light of your particular investment objectives, financial situation or particular needs. You may wish to consult a licenced advisor or accountant to assist your decision.


----------



## acouch

good morning all,
today's road map
have a great day, and good trades
ac


----------



## GMS

Good Morning,

The SPI200 Sept 09 contract continued the distributive move on the open yesterday, extending the move throughout the session to close at session high 4534. Overnight the market developed within the initial balance range (first half hour trading range) 4533 to 4556, with responsive action rejecting advances either side of the range.

A break off the overnight point of control 4540, may give the guide to the direction off this overnight development. 

A resumption of the distributive move sees resistance at 4562, then 4598, 4629 and 4670. A rotation lower sees support at 4530, commencement of initiating buy tail yesterday 4509, 4496, 4475 and 4455.

Resistance levels 4549, 4562, 4576, 4589, 4597, 4606, 4622, 4629, 4646 and 4653. Support levels 4540, 4530, 4519, 4509, 4496, 4484, 4475, 4463, 4455 and 4442.


Have a good day.


Aliom Pty Limited (ACN 123 876 291 AFSL 323182) does not warrant the accuracy, completeness or correctness of any information herein. In preparing this post, Aliom Pty Limited has not taken into account the investment objectives, financial situation or particular needs of any particular person. Before making an investment decision on the basis of information in this post you should consider whether the information is appropriate in light of your particular investment objectives, financial situation or particular needs. You may wish to consult a licenced advisor or accountant to assist your decision.


----------



## acouch

eod road map and into syco..
a bit late but better late then never i suppose
ac


----------



## acouch

good morning all
today's road map
have a great day, and good trades
ac


----------



## GMS

Good Morning,

The SPI200 Sept 09 contract rotated lower yesterday where responsive buying at 4502 broke the advance lower late in the afternoon session and again on the open overnight. The market rotated higher back through the development where a responsive sell tail triggered at 4564. The market then rotated back to the current session and prior session point of control at 4540, turning the market higher into the close.

The late session break off the 4540 point of control indicates potential for another distribution higher this morning. A resumption of this distributive move sees initial resistance at 4564, then 4598, 4629 and 4670. A rotation lower sees support at 4540, 4530, 4502, and 4496.

Resistance levels 4564, 4576, 4589, 4597, 4606, 4622, 4629, 4646, 4653
Support levels 4555, 4540, 4530, 4519, 4509, 4502, 4496, 4484, 4475, 4463


Have a good day.



Aliom Pty Limited (ACN 123 876 291 AFSL 323182) does not warrant the accuracy, completeness or correctness of any information herein. In preparing this post, Aliom Pty Limited has not taken into account the investment objectives, financial situation or particular needs of any particular person. Before making an investment decision on the basis of information in this post you should consider whether the information is appropriate in light of your particular investment objectives, financial situation or particular needs. You may wish to consult a licenced advisor or accountant to assist your decision.


----------



## acouch

good morning all
today's road map
have a great day, and good trades
ac


----------



## GMS

Good Morning,

The SPI200 Sept 09 contract rotated lower to key support 4540 yesterday midsession, followed by an initiating buy tail trigger at 4568, taking the market higher to 4578 where a responsive sell tail capped the advance into the close. Overnight the market rejected a move above 4568 in the initial balance phase to again rotate to key support 4540. Responsive buying lifted the market from here, taking the market to a new distributive phase through the morning, with another initiating buy tail triggered at 4589. Some development took place into the close of the session, although this new distributive phase may not be complete, and the overnight double development to the upside indicates this remains a possibility.

A rotation lower opens key support at 4589, 4568, and 4540. 

Resistance levels 4622, 4629, 4646, 4653, 4670, 4697, 4705, 4720 and 4751.
Support levels 4597, 4589, 4578, current point of control 4558, 4549, 4540, 4530, 4519 and 4510


Have a good day.



Aliom Pty Limited (ACN 123 876 291 AFSL 323182) does not warrant the accuracy, completeness or correctness of any information herein. In preparing this post, Aliom Pty Limited has not taken into account the investment objectives, financial situation or particular needs of any particular person. Before making an investment decision on the basis of information in this post you should consider whether the information is appropriate in light of your particular investment objectives, financial situation or particular needs. You may wish to consult a licenced advisor or accountant to assist your decision.


----------



## acouch

good morning all
Monday's road map
have a great weekend and take care
ac


----------



## GMS

Good Morning,

The SPI200 Sept 09 contract, traded the Friday day session within the initial balance (first half hour) opening phase, in a balanced session. Responsive buying featured at 4584. On Friday night responsive buying in the opening phase again held the session low at 4584, followed by a rotation higher to 4625 midsession where responsive selling rejected the advance and the market rotated back within the development through the morning session.


Resistance levels 4606, 4612, 4629, 4646, 4653, 4670 and 4697
Support levels 4589, 4584, 4578, 4562/58, 4549, 4540 and 4530

Have a good day.



Aliom Pty Limited (ACN 123 876 291 AFSL 323182) does not warrant the accuracy, completeness or correctness of any information herein. In preparing this post, Aliom Pty Limited has not taken into account the investment objectives, financial situation or particular needs of any particular person. Before making an investment decision on the basis of information in this post you should consider whether the information is appropriate in light of your particular investment objectives, financial situation or particular needs. You may wish to consult a licenced advisor or accountant to assist your decision.


----------



## acouch

good morning all
today's road map
have a great day, and good trades
ac


----------



## GMS

Good Morning,

The SPI200 Sept 09 contract triggered an initiating sell tail at 4583, in the opening phase yesterday. The market distributed lower through the session, where responsive buying broke the distribution at 4526. Overnight the market attempted to distribute lower again although responsive buying again rejected the break and the market rotated higher . An initiating buy tail triggered at key level 4540/41 pushing the market higher through the morning session, where a responsive sell tail at 4578 capped the advance. 

The market has rotated back to the initiating sell tail trigger 4583 overnight and rejected a break back through. A continuation through this level sees 4606 and 4622. A rotation lower sees support initially at 4552, then key support 4540 and 4509.

Resistance levels 4578, 4583, 4589, 4597, 4606, 4612, 4622 and 4629
Support levels 4562, 4549, 4541/40, 4532, 4526, 4509, 4496 and 4484



Have a good day.



Aliom Pty Limited (ACN 123 876 291 AFSL 323182) does not warrant the accuracy, completeness or correctness of any information herein. In preparing this post, Aliom Pty Limited has not taken into account the investment objectives, financial situation or particular needs of any particular person. Before making an investment decision on the basis of information in this post you should consider whether the information is appropriate in light of your particular investment objectives, financial situation or particular needs. You may wish to consult a licenced advisor or accountant to assist your decision.


----------



## acouch

good morning all,
today's; road map,
i have also included DEC road map for those trading it today...
have a great day , and good trades
ac


----------



## GMS

Good Morning,

The SPI200 Sept 09 contract again rotated off key resistance in the mid 4580s on the open yesterday, to trade back in the established development through the session. Responsive buying was triggered at 4526 the trigger of the responsive buy tail of the previous session. Overnight a responsive buy tail triggered at 4538, (key level 4540), to have the market rotate off session lows and back into the development. Responsive selling again capping the session at key mid 4580s, to close 4569.

A break above 4583 sees key resistance initially at 4606 and 4622. Key support at 4555, 4540, 4526 and 4509.

Resistance levels 4578, 4583, 4589, 4597, 4606, 4612, 4622 and 4629
Support levels 4566, 4555, 4540, 4526, 4519, 4509, 4502, 4496, 4484 and 4474.

Have a good day.




Aliom Pty Limited (ACN 123 876 291 AFSL 323182) does not warrant the accuracy, completeness or correctness of any information herein. In preparing this post, Aliom Pty Limited has not taken into account the investment objectives, financial situation or particular needs of any particular person. Before making an investment decision on the basis of information in this post you should consider whether the information is appropriate in light of your particular investment objectives, financial situation or particular needs. You may wish to consult a licenced advisor or accountant to assist your decision.


----------



## acouch

good morning all,
today's road map
have a great day, and good trades
ac


----------



## GMS

Good Morning,

The SPI200 December 09 contract distributed through the previous development high on the open yesterday, triggering an initial buy tail at 4601. the market continued to distribute through the session. Overnight the imbalance and distribution higher continued with another initiating buy tail triggered at 4709. The market has developed throughout the morning near session highs.

The development near session highs and no responsive sell tail indicates the market is yet to reject the current price action. A continuation higher sees resistance at 4727/34, previous development low 4757 and 4814. A break of 4709 sees possibility of rotation to 4793, 4670 then 4632.

Resistance levels 4727/34, 4741, 4757, 4772, 4795, 4814, 4826
Support levels 4709, 4696, 4692, 4671, 4664, 4652, 4632, 4619, 4612 and 4601


Have a good day



Aliom Pty Limited (ACN 123 876 291 AFSL 323182) does not warrant the accuracy, completeness or correctness of any information herein. In preparing this post, Aliom Pty Limited has not taken into account the investment objectives, financial situation or particular needs of any particular person. Before making an investment decision on the basis of information in this post you should consider whether the information is appropriate in light of your particular investment objectives, financial situation or particular needs. You may wish to consult a licenced advisor or accountant to assist your decision.


----------



## Edwood

charging away again today - not far to 5k now


----------



## Largesse

can someone tell me whether we are net long or short on the Sept SPI going into expiry tomorrow?
and what volume was like yesterday and where its at today.

TIA


Anyone noticed ANY kind of selling with the FTSE rebalancing?
We were meant to cop some serious selling....


----------



## Edwood

general rule is to buy the Wed into expiry, sell the Monday after


----------



## Largesse

Edwood said:


> general rule is to buy the Wed into expiry, sell the Monday after




congratulations on trying to sound informed whilst not answering the question


----------



## cutz

Largesse said:


> can someone tell me whether we are net long or short on the Sept SPI going into expiry tomorrow?
> and what volume was like yesterday and where its at today.




Hi Largesse,

There's no net long/short, all positions are balanced by an opposing position, the september contract stopped trading this morning, the stats can be found here http://www.asx.com.au/sfe/futures_summary.htm


----------



## Edwood

Largesse said:


> congratulations on trying to sound informed whilst not answering the question




cutz gave you an answer - what does it tell you about your question?


----------



## Largesse

it tells me that i dont know what im doing hence me asking the question. but i already knew that.

my second point still stands.


----------



## Largesse

cutz said:


> Hi Largesse,
> 
> There's no net long/short, all positions are balanced by an opposing position, the september contract stopped trading this morning, the stats can be found here http://www.asx.com.au/sfe/futures_summary.htm




there would be net long or short on options over the SPI though?
where can i get this info?


----------



## cutz

Largesse said:


> there would be net long or short on options over the SPI though?
> where can i get this info?




No,

Options are the same, no net long or short, all positions balanced by an opposing position, what varies though is open interest, i get this info off iress or TWS although it can also be found on brokerage websites or the ASX site if you want to dig around.

I think Largesse you may be thinking of the ratio of puts to calls here's a free site where you can explore the ratios on the US market. http://www.indexindicators.com/charts/sp500-vs-put-call-ratio-total-10d-sma-params-3y-x-x/

BTW most of the index option action happens on the ASX (XJO options), from what i can see SPI options are pretty quiet.


----------



## Edwood

Largesse said:


> my second point still stands.




lol - fighting talk!

only trying to help largest, generally things are simpler than they 'need' to be

Ed


----------



## Jay70

cutz said:


> Hi Largesse,
> 
> There's no net long/short, all positions are balanced by an opposing position, the september contract stopped trading this morning, the stats can be found here http://www.asx.com.au/sfe/futures_summary.htm




If I can put my 2 bobs worth. The big question is who is holding what position. There are 2 traders on the spi, the commercials and everyone else. Weak positions are always held by the majority of retail clients and the commercials are continually looking for ways to trap them on the wrong side. Legalised theft.

I believe the commercials after todays action will be now holding the majority of shorts. Being a fly on the camels back is the best way to take points out the spi on the short term. But you need to know what the Camel is doing.


----------



## acouch

good morning all
today's road map
have a great day and good trades
ac


----------



## GMS

Good Morning,

The SPI200 Dec 09 contract continued the distribution higher yesterday reaching 4766 before rotating back inside the range through the afternoon session, to close on the point of control 4727. Overnight the market rotated lower off the POC 4727 early in the session to key support at low 4690s.

The overnight action indicates the market is accepting development in the 4690 to 4627 range. Looking outside this range the lack of a defined responsive sell tail at the 4766 high yesterday indicates only a weak rejection of this level.

Initial key resistance is at 4727/34, a break through here sees possibility for rotation to 4766, then 4814. A break of 4693 opens potential for a rotation to 4670 and 4632. 

Resistance levels 4709, 4727/34, 4739, 4741, 4757, 4766, 4772, 4795, 4814
Support levels 4696, 4693, 4670, 4664, 4652, 4632, 4619, 4612, 4600.


Have a good day,





Aliom Pty Limited (ACN 123 876 291 AFSL 323182) does not warrant the accuracy, completeness or correctness of any information herein. In preparing this post, Aliom Pty Limited has not taken into account the investment objectives, financial situation or particular needs of any particular person. Before making an investment decision on the basis of information in this post you should consider whether the information is appropriate in light of your particular investment objectives, financial situation or particular needs. You may wish to consult a licenced advisor or accountant to assist your decision.


----------



## acouch

good morning all
Monday's road map
have a great weekend and take care
ac


----------



## Edwood

Edwood said:


> general rule is to buy the Wed into expiry, sell the Monday after




running to schedule so far


----------



## acouch

good morning all,
today's road map
have a great day and good trades
ac


----------



## GMS

Good Morning,

The SPI200 Dec 09 contract triggered an initiating sell tail in the opening phase yesterday, rotating to the low side of the current development at 4678, responsive buying rotated the market back into the development through the afternoon session. Overnight the market distributed lower through the 4678 development low. The distribution was rejected with the market rotating back into the established development to trigger a responsive sell tail at 4691, taking the market back to the development low (4678) on the close. 

The current development is 4678 to 4705. A break at 4678 sees key support at current point of control 4668. A break here opens potential for a rotation to 4557, 4635, 4621 and 4600. A break of 4686 opens potential rotation to 4705 then 4727.

Resistance levels 4686, 4692, 4696, 4705, 4716, 4727, 4739
Support levels 4672, 4668, 4657, 4652, 4635, 4621 and 4600


Have a good day.




Aliom Pty Limited (ACN 123 876 291 AFSL 323182) does not warrant the accuracy, completeness or correctness of any information herein. In preparing this post, Aliom Pty Limited has not taken into account the investment objectives, financial situation or particular needs of any particular person. Before making an investment decision on the basis of information in this post you should consider whether the information is appropriate in light of your particular investment objectives, financial situation or particular needs. You may wish to consult a licenced advisor or accountant to assist your decision.


----------



## acouch

spent most of the day hugging the lis
ac


----------



## acouch

good morning all,
today's road map
have a great day, and good trades
ac


----------



## GMS

Good Morning,

The SPI200 Dec 09 contract rotated higher off key support 4668 in the opening phase yesterday, trading in the established development for the session. Responsive buying rejected a late session attempt to break the 4668 level. A responsive buy tail triggered at 4691 in the opening phase of the night market rotating the market higher, to a session high just short of the current development high 4727.

The break higher overnight off the previous session point of control 4683, indicates the market is attempting a new distributive move higher outside the current development. That distributive break outside the development high 4727 didn’t materialise overnight, although it remains a possibility today.

A break of the 4727 development high opens potential for a rotation to 4766, then 4814. A rotation lower opens key support at 4691, 4683, and 4668.

Resistance levels 4716, 4727, 4739, 4757, 4766, 4773, 4781, 4797, 4818, 4822
Support levels 4696, 4691, 4683, 4672, 4668, 4652, 4635, 4619.


Have a good day.



Aliom Pty Limited (ACN 123 876 291 AFSL 323182) does not warrant the accuracy, completeness or correctness of any information herein. In preparing this post, Aliom Pty Limited has not taken into account the investment objectives, financial situation or particular needs of any particular person. Before making an investment decision on the basis of information in this post you should consider whether the information is appropriate in light of your particular investment objectives, financial situation or particular needs. You may wish to consult a licenced advisor or accountant to assist your decision.


----------



## acouch

road map eod trading..sycom to follow
have a great evening
ac


----------



## acouch

good morning all
today's road map
have a great day, and good trades
ac


----------



## GMS

Good Morning,

The SPI200 Dec 09 contract continued the distributive move on the open yesterday morning, breaking through development high 4727, to trade higher through the session closing near session highs. The distribution higher continued overnight with an opening phase of 4740 to 4761, and the market developed within this range until a mid morning responsive sell tail triggered at 4766, that signalled a rejection of the distribution higher. The market rotated lower to trigger an initiating sell tail at 4736, that has extended into the close.

The sell tail break late in the session was not rejected on the close and we look for a continuation or break of this move on the reopen today. The initiating sell indicates the market has rejected the 4740 to 4761 development overnight with key resistance now at 4736, and 4766. A continuation of the rotation lower sees key support at 4710, 4691, and 4683 and 4668.

Resistance levels 4727, 4736, 4750, 4766, 4773, 4781
Support levels 4710, 4696, 4691, 4633, 4668, 4652, 4635


Have a good day.



Aliom Pty Limited (ACN 123 876 291 AFSL 323182) does not warrant the accuracy, completeness or correctness of any information herein. In preparing this post, Aliom Pty Limited has not taken into account the investment objectives, financial situation or particular needs of any particular person. Before making an investment decision on the basis of information in this post you should consider whether the information is appropriate in light of your particular investment objectives, financial situation or particular needs. You may wish to consult a licenced advisor or accountant to assist your decision.


----------



## Joolean

Boy you absolutely nailed that high ac. 
Your low target was pretty darn close too.


----------



## acouch

good morning all,
today's road map
have a great day, and good trades
ac


----------



## acouch

Joolean said:


> Boy you absolutely nailed that high ac.
> Your low target was pretty darn close too.




hi joolean,

yes it is good to see this road map settling in so well so quickly 
have a great day
ac


----------



## GMS

Good Morning,

The SPI200 December 09 contract failed to break back above the 4740 prior session development low yesterday on the open, and rotated lower through the session. A responsive buy tail trigger at 4704, rejected the downside move and the market rotated higher into the close. 

Overnight the market held support at prior session point of control 4710 to rotate back through the 4740 level, although a responsive sell tail trigger at 4746 rejected the advance and the market rotated lower, to trigger an initiating sell tail at 4711 midsession that has seen an imbalanced distribution lower through the remainder of the session.

The current session point of control is 4683, which was the POC on 21/9 and 22/9. The close below at 4677 and lack of responsive buy tail trigger to indicate a rejection of this new distribution lower opens the possibility of a continuation of the move. A continuation sees key support at 4668 then 4635. A rotation above 4683 opens key resistance at 4691, 4710 and 4736/40.


Resistance levels 4683, 4691, 4696, 4710, 4727, 4738, 4750, 4767
Support levels 4672, 4668, 4652, 4635, 4619, 4612, 4600, 4589


Have a good day.



Aliom Pty Limited (ACN 123 876 291 AFSL 323182) does not warrant the accuracy, completeness or correctness of any information herein. In preparing this post, Aliom Pty Limited has not taken into account the investment objectives, financial situation or particular needs of any particular person. Before making an investment decision on the basis of information in this post you should consider whether the information is appropriate in light of your particular investment objectives, financial situation or particular needs. You may wish to consult a licenced advisor or accountant to assist your decision.


----------



## acouch

how the road map looked eod trading
have a great evening 
ac


----------



## acouch

good morning all
Monday's road map
have a great weekend and take care
ac


----------



## GMS

Good Morning,

The SPI200 Dec. 09 contract continued the distribution lower on the reopen Friday morning. A responsive buying tail at 4654 rejected the distributive break, and the market rotated higher to trigger an initiating buy tail at key level 4683. The rotation higher continued back into the established development through the session where responsive selling capped the market key level low 4740s.

The market rejected the distribution below 4683 on Friday, to rotate back into the current development 4683 to 4740, where it continued to rotate through the Friday night session. 

Resistance levels 4719, 4727, 4736, 4740, 4748, 4767, 4773, 4781, 4797
Support levels 4696, 4691, 4683, 4677, 4672, 4667, 4654, 4635, 4619


Have a good day.


Aliom Pty Limited (ACN 123 876 291 AFSL 323182) does not warrant the accuracy, completeness or correctness of any information herein. In preparing this post, Aliom Pty Limited has not taken into account the investment objectives, financial situation or particular needs of any particular person. Before making an investment decision on the basis of information in this post you should consider whether the information is appropriate in light of your particular investment objectives, financial situation or particular needs. You may wish to consult a licenced advisor or accountant to assist your decision.


----------



## acouch

good morning,
just thought i would show you Monday's road map finished this morning..
missed the low by 1 tic yesterday, but spot on the high on sycom
i am please to see this road map settling down so well.
ac


----------



## acouch

good morning all
today's road map
have a great day, and good trades
ac


----------



## GMS

Good Morning,

The SPI200 Dec 09 contract attempted another distribution lower outside the 4683 to 4740 established development yesterday morning. Responsive buying rejected the distributive move again in the low 4650s and the rotated higher through the remainder of the session, to trade back inside the development.

Responsive buying rejected another break lower early in the night session, rotating the market higher into the development. A midsession initiating buy tail trigger at 4715 saw the market extend through the development high 4740. Responsive selling through the morning session has seen the market develop around this prior development high, capping the distributive move.

The double distribution to the upside overnight indicates potential for higher prices. A continuation of the distribution higher opens resistance at previous development high 4761 on 24/9. A rotation back through 4740 takes the market back into the established development and balanced, with key support the commencement of the initiating buy tail 4715.

Resistance levels 4748, 4761, 4773, 4781, 4797, 4814, 4822, 4842
Support levels 4740, 4736, 4727, 4715, 4696, 4691, 4683 and 4668.


Have a good day.



Aliom Pty Limited (ACN 123 876 291 AFSL 323182) does not warrant the accuracy, completeness or correctness of any information herein. In preparing this post, Aliom Pty Limited has not taken into account the investment objectives, financial situation or particular needs of any particular person. Before making an investment decision on the basis of information in this post you should consider whether the information is appropriate in light of your particular investment objectives, financial situation or particular needs. You may wish to consult a licenced advisor or accountant to assist your decision.


----------



## acouch

good morning all
today's road map
have a great day, and good trades
ac


----------



## GMS

Good Morning,

The SPI200 December 09 contract continued the distribution higher yesterday extending to 4779 where responsive selling capped the advance, and the market commenced a new development through the remainder of the session.

Overnight the market triggered a responsive sell tail at 4770 indicating a short term rejection of the distribution higher, and the market developed in a range 4743 to 4768 through to the close, showing signs of a balancing market, following the prior session distribution and imbalance.

A break of the previous session point of control 4743 (and previous development high 4740) opens possibility for a rotation back into the previous development 4683 to 4740, with key support at 4715. A rotation higher into the current development sees resistance at the current point of control 4753, and development high 4768.

Resistance levels 4753, 4768, 4777, 4781, 4797, 4814, 4822, 4842
Support levels 4743/40, 4727, 4715, 4696, 4691, 4683, 4672, 4668, 4652

Have a good day.



Aliom Pty Limited (ACN 123 876 291 AFSL 323182) does not warrant the accuracy, completeness or correctness of any information herein. In preparing this post, Aliom Pty Limited has not taken into account the investment objectives, financial situation or particular needs of any particular person. Before making an investment decision on the basis of information in this post you should consider whether the information is appropriate in light of your particular investment objectives, financial situation or particular needs. You may wish to consult a licenced advisor or accountant to assist your decision.


----------



## acouch

morning all,
how yesterdays's road map is looking close to its 24hr cycle..
ac


----------



## acouch

good morning all
today's road map
have a great day, and good trades
ac


----------



## GMS

Good morning,

The SPI200 December 09 contract continued to trade within the prior session development yesterday, responsive selling again rejecting a break above the high 4770’s and responsive buying rejecting breaks below key support 4740.

Overnight the market continued to trade within the development before a midsession rotation off the point of control 4766, initiated a sell tail distributive break below the 4740 development low. A responsive buy tail at 4707 rejected the break and the market rotated higher. The market failed to break back inside the prior session development low 4740 through the reminder of the session, developing in a range low 4720s to 4739. 

A rotation back inside the prior development sees key resistance at 4756, current point of control 4768, and 4779. A continuation of the distributive break lower sees key support at 4715, 4707, 4696 and 4683.

Resistance levels 4740/43, 4748, 4756, 4768, 4779/81, 4797, 4814, 4822
Support levels 4727, 4715, 4707, 4696, 4691, 4683, 4668, 4652.


Have a good day.


Aliom Pty Limited (ACN 123 876 291 AFSL 323182) does not warrant the accuracy, completeness or correctness of any information herein. In preparing this post, Aliom Pty Limited has not taken into account the investment objectives, financial situation or particular needs of any particular person. Before making an investment decision on the basis of information in this post you should consider whether the information is appropriate in light of your particular investment objectives, financial situation or particular needs. You may wish to consult a licenced advisor or accountant to assist your decision.


----------



## acouch

evening all,
if nothing else you have to love the LIS
ac


----------



## acouch

good morning all
today's road map
have a great day, and good trades
ac


----------



## GMS

Good Morning,

The SPI200 December 09 contract rotated back into the established development on the reopen yesterday where responsive selling capped the advance at the point of control 4668. A midsession rotation took the market lower where another responsive buy tail at 4706 rejected the distribution lower. 

Overnight the market opened to a balanced session before a midsession initiating sell tail triggered at 4699, that opened a new distributive move to 4652, where responsive buying rejected the break and the market began to develop 4652 to 4671. In the closing phase the market broke to another distributive move to close 4645.

The second distributive break below 4652 in the closing phase (which is yet to trigger a rejecting responsive sell tail) and double distribution to the downside indicates potential for a continuation of this move today.

A rotation back above 4652 open possibility for a continuation to 4671 then 4683 and 4700. A continuation of the distributive break lower open support at 4620, 4597, 4583 and 4560.

Resistance levels 4652, 4661, 4668/71, 4683, 4691, 4700, 4707, 4716, 4727
Support levels 4635, 4627, 4619, 4612, 4600, 4589, 4583, 4562/58


Have a good day.


Aliom Pty Limited (ACN 123 876 291 AFSL 323182) does not warrant the accuracy, completeness or correctness of any information herein. In preparing this post, Aliom Pty Limited has not taken into account the investment objectives, financial situation or particular needs of any particular person. Before making an investment decision on the basis of information in this post you should consider whether the information is appropriate in light of your particular investment objectives, financial situation or particular needs. You may wish to consult a licenced advisor or accountant to assist your decision.


----------



## acouch

good morning all
Monday's road map
have a  great weekend, and take care
ac


----------



## noosatrader

acouch said:


> good morning all
> Monday's road map
> have a  great weekend, and take care
> ac




Hi Acouch,was just wondering if there was any link or write up on how the road map works, just so I can get an understanding of it,I really appreciate your time.Cheerz


----------



## acouch

noosatrader said:


> Hi Acouch,was just wondering if there was any link or write up on how the road map works, just so I can get an understanding of it,I really appreciate your time.Cheerz




noosa trader, the road maps are  my own invention, but they stem from the Andrews pitchfork..{called by most pitchforks } if you go to this link below you will learn about pitchforks..
hope this is of some help to you
ac 

http://www.marketgeometry.com/


----------



## MONEYKING

Hi acouch  thanks  for your road map in the mornings i can not trade with out it any more .I have attach a chart with the cci  what i am using i was wondering if you could tel me what time frame do you use when the market starts and threw the day and  are you using ticks .I have been using 3,5-min charts at the moment.I do buy into the pre-market 9h50 and do about 10-15 round trips per day.I am using Ninja trader threw pats my broker is mfglobel and they are charting $8 per site .

Cheers .:chainsaw:


----------



## acouch

MONEYKING said:


> Hi acouch  thanks  for your road map in the mornings i can not trade with out it any more .I have attach a chart with the cci  what i am using i was wondering if you could tel me what time frame do you use when the market starts and threw the day and  are you using ticks .I have been using 3,5-min charts at the moment.I do buy into the pre-market 9h50 and do about 10-15 round trips per day.I am using Ninja trader threw pats my broker is mfglobel and they are charting $8 per site .
> 
> Cheers .:chainsaw:




hi moneyking,

i am glad that you are finding the road map of help to you, and this one seems to be working very well, as sometimes it takes a while for it to settle down into a new contract.

the road map as you know is worked on a 10min chart..though i use a 5 tic chart or a 50 volume chart for scalping, which of course can be a great entry for a change in trend with the roadmap figs..
i use interactive brokers which charge a 10 dollar return so ideal for scalping.
and spi data is no charge atm..
ninja trader is a great prodict..and if use to it..keep using it, i just use bracket-trader.com..
nice and simple for me..
the cci nos you can use..50 cci to hold you in the trend..with 14 and 6
the break of the +/-100 on cci is something to watch 
have fun 
ac


----------



## acouch

how Monday's road map is shaping up in to sycom from the days trading
ac


----------



## noosatrader

acouch said:


> noosa trader, the road maps are  my own invention, but they stem from the Andrews pitchfork..{called by most pitchforks } if you go to this link below you will learn about pitchforks..
> hope this is of some help to you
> ac
> 
> 
> 
> Cheers Acouch...


----------



## acouch

good morning all,
today's road map (a little late, slept in ):sleeping:

have a great day, and good trades 
ac


----------



## GMS

Good Morning,

The SPI200 December 09 contract continued the distributive break lower on Friday and through Friday night, where a responsive buy tail trigger at 4547 rejected the break lower. Yesterday and overnight the market developed in a range 4571 to 4632, with an initiating buy tail trigger at 4620 overnight.

A break through the development high 4632 opens potential for a distribution into a small development from Friday 4641 to 4671, then 4700. A break of 4620 opens potential for a rotation back to the current point of control 4598, 4571 and 4552/47.

Resistance levels 4632, 4641, 4652, 4668/71, 4683, 4691, 4700, 4707, 4716, 4727
Support levels 4620, 4612, 4600/4598, 4589, 4578, 4562/58, 4547, 4529, 4510.

Have a good day.



Aliom Pty Limited (ACN 123 876 291 AFSL 323182) does not warrant the accuracy, completeness or correctness of any information herein. In preparing this post, Aliom Pty Limited has not taken into account the investment objectives, financial situation or particular needs of any particular person. Before making an investment decision on the basis of information in this post you should consider whether the information is appropriate in light of your particular investment objectives, financial situation or particular needs. You may wish to consult a licenced advisor or accountant to assist your decision.


----------



## acouch

good morning all,
today's road map
have a great day, and good trades
ac


----------



## GMS

Good Morning,

The SPI200 December 09 contract rejected the distributive break higher on the reopen yesterday rotating lower through the session. Overnight the market rotated higher off the previous session point of control 4601. An initiating buy tail triggered at 4622 with the market extending to 4671 where a responsive sell tail rejected the distributive break. The market developed through the remainder of the session 4641 (current point of control) to 4671. 

A break of the 4671 development high opens potential to 4691 and 4700. A break of 4641 opens potential for support at 4622, and 4601.

Resistance levels 4671, 4683, 4691, 4700, 4707, 4716, 4727, 4740
Support levels 4652, 4641, 4635, 4622, 4612, 4601, 4589, 4583, 4578, 4571, 4562/58

Have a good day. 




Aliom Pty Limited (ACN 123 876 291 AFSL 323182) does not warrant the accuracy, completeness or correctness of any information herein. In preparing this post, Aliom Pty Limited has not taken into account the investment objectives, financial situation or particular needs of any particular person. Before making an investment decision on the basis of information in this post you should consider whether the information is appropriate in light of your particular investment objectives, financial situation or particular needs. You may wish to consult a licenced advisor or accountant to assist your decision.


----------



## acouch

good morning all,
today's road map
have a great day, and good trades
ac


----------



## GMS

Good Morning,

The SPI200 December 09 contract continued the previous session upside distributive break yesterday, triggering an initiating buy tail at 4682, that extended though the remainder of the session. A responsive sell tail rejected the advance at 4716. Overnight the market developed within this range low 4680s to 4716, and is now taking a balanced stance.

Key resistance is at 4716, then 4734 (the break level of the rotation lower on 1/10). A break of prior development low 4740/43 opens potential for rotation to prior development high 4769. Key support is at 4700/4698, and current development low 4682. A break of 4665/60, opens potential for a rotation to initially 4643, then 4620 and key prior development low 4601.


Have a good day.


Aliom Pty Limited (ACN 123 876 291 AFSL 323182) does not warrant the accuracy, completeness or correctness of any information herein. In preparing this post, Aliom Pty Limited has not taken into account the investment objectives, financial situation or particular needs of any particular person. Before making an investment decision on the basis of information in this post you should consider whether the information is appropriate in light of your particular investment objectives, financial situation or particular needs. You may wish to consult a licenced advisor or accountant to assist your decision.


----------



## acouch

how the road map went and a little of sycom now..
if it breaks the 97...814 is next on rm..
ac


----------



## acouch

good morning all
today's road map
have a great day, and good trades
ac


----------



## GMS

Good Morning,

The SPI200 December 09 contract, continued the distributive move on the reopen yesterday, triggering an initiating buy tail at 4739, and extending to 4793. The market began to balance in the afternoon session developing in a range 4765 to 4793.

Overnight the market continued to develop, with a responsive buy tail rejecting a break lower at 4773, and the market rotated higher in the morning session.

The development action of the market yesterday afternoon and overnight indicates the market is finding balance and acceptance at the new levels. The responsive buy tail at 4773 indicated a rejection of the downside, and the market has yet to trigger a responsive sell tail rejection of the upside, indicating potential for further price acceptance to the upside.

A continuation higher sees key resistance at 4822/30 a prior point of control development low. A break of which opens resistance at 4870/77, multiple monthly development lows in 06, and 4917. To the downside, key support at the current point of control 4785, and 4773/69. A break of this previous development high opens potential for ration back to development low 4740/43, 4727 and 4700.

Resistance levels 4797, 4814, 4822, 4830, 4848, 4862, 4869, 4878, 4910, 4917
Support levels 4785, 4773, 4769, 4753, 4739, 4727, 4716, 4700.



Have a good day.



Aliom Pty Limited (ACN 123 876 291 AFSL 323182) does not warrant the accuracy, completeness or correctness of any information herein. In preparing this post, Aliom Pty Limited has not taken into account the investment objectives, financial situation or particular needs of any particular person. Before making an investment decision on the basis of information in this post you should consider whether the information is appropriate in light of your particular investment objectives, financial situation or particular needs. You may wish to consult a licenced advisor or accountant to assist your decision.


----------



## acouch

eod road map for you to have a look at
have a great evening
ac


----------



## acouch

good morning all,
Monday's road map. this will be the last road map for the
week, as my home is getting new carpet, and the computers have to be taken down..
hopefully by next weekend i will be up and running again with road map
for the following Monday.
have a great weekend, and keep safe.
ac


----------



## skc

acouch said:


> good morning all,
> Monday's road map. this will be the last road map for the
> week, as my home is getting new carpet, and the computers have to be taken down..
> hopefully by next weekend i will be up and running again with road map
> for the following Monday.
> have a great weekend, and keep safe.
> ac




Thank you acouch. Have you considered using the roadmap pattern for your carpet?


----------



## acouch

skc said:


> Thank you acouch. Have you considered using the roadmap pattern for your carpet?




hahaha skc,
it is a thought 
a:couch


----------



## GMS

Good Morning,

The SPI200 Dec. 09 contract continued development, accepting the current range on Friday. A responsive sell tail at 4808 on the open rotated the market lower, where responsive buying rejected the downside at 4757, and the market developed 4757 to 4808 through the session. Overnight another responsive buy tail trigger at 4738 rotated the market higher back into the development through the remainder of the session.

Key resistance is at 4790, and 4822. A break of this level opens potential for an extension to 4834 and previous development lows 4870/78. Key support is at 4769, 4757, 4739 and 4700.

Resistance levels 4790, 4797, 4810, 4822, 4834, 4848, 4862, 4870/78, 4887, 4910/4918
Support levels 4777, 4769, 4757, 4739, 4727, 4716, 4700, 4691, 4683


Have a good day.




Aliom Pty Limited (ACN 123 876 291 AFSL 323182) does not warrant the accuracy, completeness or correctness of any information herein. In preparing this post, Aliom Pty Limited has not taken into account the investment objectives, financial situation or particular needs of any particular person. Before making an investment decision on the basis of information in this post you should consider whether the information is appropriate in light of your particular investment objectives, financial situation or particular needs. You may wish to consult a licenced advisor or accountant to assist your decision.


----------



## GMS

Good Morning,

The SPI200 December 09 contract continued trading within the established development yesterday and overnight. Responsive sell tails rejected breaks above mid 4790’s and responsive buying rejected a break below key support level 4740. The market remains balanced, rotating within the development, now 4740 to high 4790’s.

The market overnight rotated off the previous session point of control 4757, and this indicates potential for a distributive break to the upside through the current development high. Key resistance is at 4782, 4797, 4822/30 prior development low, and 4870/77 multiple monthly development lows. A break of 4757 opens potential for a rotation back to 4740, 4727 and 4700.

Resistance levels 4782, 4794/97, 4810, 4822, 4834, 4848, 4682, 4870/77
Support levels 4777, 4769, 4757, 4740, 4727, 4716, 4700, 4691.


Have a good day.



Aliom Pty Limited (ACN 123 876 291 AFSL 323182) does not warrant the accuracy, completeness or correctness of any information herein. In preparing this post, Aliom Pty Limited has not taken into account the investment objectives, financial situation or particular needs of any particular person. Before making an investment decision on the basis of information in this post you should consider whether the information is appropriate in light of your particular investment objectives, financial situation or particular needs. You may wish to consult a licenced advisor or accountant to assist your decision.


----------



## GMS

Good Morning,

The SPI200 December 09 continued to rotate within the establishing development yesterday. Responsive selling capped the attempted distributive break above development highs. In the overnight session an initiating buy tail at 4771, rejected a break lower and the market continued the rotation through the development.

Responsive selling capped the distributive break higher yesterday and overnight, although these where not rejecting responsive sell tails, indicating potential for further upside distributive breaks. 

Key resistance is at 4785, 4797, 4822/30 prior development low, and 4870/77 multiple monthly development lows. Key support is at 4771. A break of 4757 opens potential for a rotation back to 4740, 4727 and 4700.

Resistance levels 4782, 4794/97, 4808, 4822, 4834, 4848, 4682, 4870/77
Support levels 4777, 4771, 4757, 4740, 4727, 4716, 4700, 4691.


Have a good day.



Aliom Pty Limited (ACN 123 876 291 AFSL 323182) does not warrant the accuracy, completeness or correctness of any information herein. In preparing this post, Aliom Pty Limited has not taken into account the investment objectives, financial situation or particular needs of any particular person. Before making an investment decision on the basis of information in this post you should consider whether the information is appropriate in light of your particular investment objectives, financial situation or particular needs. You may wish to consult a licenced advisor or accountant to assist your decision.


----------



## GMS

Good Morning,

The SPI200 December contract broke out of the establishing development yesterday with a initiating buy tail trigger at 4814, extending through the session where a responsive sell tail at 4845 capped the advance. The market spent the session developing in the 4822 to 4845 range.

Overnight the distribution higher continued with development along the range. The close at session highs and lack of a rejecting responsive sell tail indicates potential for further distribution higher today and imbalance.

A continuation of the distribution opens resistance at 4926, prior development high and point of control 4958/4965 and 5014. A rotation lower opens key support at prior development lows 4878/69, 4845, 4822 and 4814.

Resistance levels 4886, 4902, 4910, 4918, 4948, 4958, 4965, 4971, 4978
Support levels 4878, 4869, 4862, 4845, 4836, 4822, 4814, 4808, 4794


Have a good day.




Aliom Pty Limited (ACN 123 876 291 AFSL 323182) does not warrant the accuracy, completeness or correctness of any information herein. In preparing this post, Aliom Pty Limited has not taken into account the investment objectives, financial situation or particular needs of any particular person. Before making an investment decision on the basis of information in this post you should consider whether the information is appropriate in light of your particular investment objectives, financial situation or particular needs. You may wish to consult a licenced advisor or accountant to assist your decision.


----------



## GMS

Good Morning,

The SPI200 December 09 contract distribution higher met responsive selling on the reopen yesterday, rotating the market lower where development and balance dominated the session. Early in the overnight session, a responsive sell tail at 4878 rotated the market lower, to a responsive buy tail at 4836 that rejected the break rotating the market higher again.

The market yesterday and overnight featured development and rotation within this development. The late session move higher off the current point of control 4868 and break of the rejecting responsive tail at 4878 indicates bias towards the upside on the close. 

Key resistance is at 4926, prior development high and point of control 4958/4965 and 5014. Rotations lower open key support at the current point of control 4869, 4836, 4822 and 4814.

Resistance levels 4902, 4910, 4918, 4948, 4958, 4965, 4971, 4978
Support levels 4878, 4869, 4862, 4845, 4836, 4822, 4814, 4808, 4794

Have a good day.


Aliom Pty Limited (ACN 123 876 291 AFSL 323182) does not warrant the accuracy, completeness or correctness of any information herein. In preparing this post, Aliom Pty Limited has not taken into account the investment objectives, financial situation or particular needs of any particular person. Before making an investment decision on the basis of information in this post you should consider whether the information is appropriate in light of your particular investment objectives, financial situation or particular needs. You may wish to consult a licenced advisor or accountant to assist your decision.


----------



## acouch

good afternoon,

Monday's road map
have a great weekend and take care
ac


----------



## GMS

Good Morning,

The SPI200 December 09 contract continued to rotate within the establishing development on Friday, with the only key point to note a responsive sell tail at 4840 before rotating higher into the close. Overnight the rotation higher met responsive selling at the previous session point of control 4869, to then rotate lower to 4812, reject the break and rotate higher into the close.

The market broke to the current development following the initiating buy tail break at 4814 on 14/10, and the rotation off this level on Friday night indicates the market is continuing to accept prices in the current development now 4814 to 4897. A break of 4814 opens possibility for a distribution back to the prior development (early October) with key support 4786 and development low 4757.


Resistance levels 4849, 4862, 4869, 4878, 4886, 4902, 4910, 4918
Support levels 4836, 4822, 4814, 4808, 4797, 4782, 4777, 4768


Have a good day.

Aliom Pty Limited (ACN 123 876 291 AFSL 323182) does not warrant the accuracy, completeness or correctness of any information herein. In preparing this post, Aliom Pty Limited has not taken into account the investment objectives, financial situation or particular needs of any particular person. Before making an investment decision on the basis of information in this post you should consider whether the information is appropriate in light of your particular investment objectives, financial situation or particular needs. You may wish to consult a licenced advisor or accountant to assist your decision.


----------



## acouch

Monday's updated road map
have a great evening
ac


----------



## acouch

good morning all.

today's road map
have a great day, and good trades
ac


----------



## GMS

Good Morning,

The SPI200 December 09 contract distributed lower on the open yesterday into the previous development set in early October. Responsive buying rejected the break at 4773 and the market developed within a 4775 to 4812 range through remainder of the session.

Overnight the market triggered an initiating buy tail at 4812 extending the market back into the development of recent sessions. The double development to the upside overnight indicates bias for higher prices today.

Key resistance is at 4869/78, a break of which opens potential for a distribution to 4926 then 4958/65. Key support at 4836, 4814/12, and 4771

Resistance levels 4862, 4868, 4878, 4886, 4902, 4910, 4918, 4926
Support levels 4839, 4833, 4822, 4814, 4808, 4798, 4782, 4773, 4768, 4757


Have a good day.



Aliom Pty Limited (ACN 123 876 291 AFSL 323182) does not warrant the accuracy, completeness or correctness of any information herein. In preparing this post, Aliom Pty Limited has not taken into account the investment objectives, financial situation or particular needs of any particular person. Before making an investment decision on the basis of information in this post you should consider whether the information is appropriate in light of your particular investment objectives, financial situation or particular needs. You may wish to consult a licenced advisor or accountant to assist your decision.


----------



## acouch

road map end of its 24hr  cycle
ac


----------



## acouch

morning all,
today's road map
have a great day, and good trades
ac


----------



## GMS

Good Morning,

The SPI200 December 09 contract traded higher on the open yesterday, rotating off key resistance at 4769 to trade a balanced session. Balance and development continued overnight with rotation off key support at 4814/12.

The market continues development within the 4814/12 to 4869 range. A break of key support 4814/12 opens potential for a distribution to initially 4786, 4772 then 4757. Initial resistance is at the current point of control 4832, current development high 4869, 4878, 4926 and 4958/65.

Resistance levels 4832, 4839, 4862, 4869, 4878, 4886, 4902, 4910
Support levels 4822, 4814, 4808, 4794, 4786, 4782, 4777, 4768, 4757, 4740

Have a good day.



Aliom Pty Limited (ACN 123 876 291 AFSL 323182) does not warrant the accuracy, completeness or correctness of any information herein. In preparing this post, Aliom Pty Limited has not taken into account the investment objectives, financial situation or particular needs of any particular person. Before making an investment decision on the basis of information in this post you should consider whether the information is appropriate in light of your particular investment objectives, financial situation or particular needs. You may wish to consult a licenced advisor or accountant to assist your decision.


----------



## acouch

good morning all,
today's road map
have a great day, and good trades
a:couch


----------



## GMS

Good Morning,

The SPI200 December 09 contract has continued to rotate within the 4812/14 to 4869 development yesterday and overnight, with rejecting responsive sell tail at 4871 and a responsive buy tail rejection at 4812. 

With the close this morning at the development low 4812 the question begs will the market again rotate off this low or make a new distributive break lower?

A break of key support 4814/12 opens potential for a distribution to initially 4786, 4772 then 4757. Initial resistance is at the current point of control 4832, 4851, current development high 4869, 4878, 4926 and 4958/65.

Resistance levels 4822, 4832, 4839, 4851, 4862, 4869, 4878, 4886, 4902, 4910
Support levels 4812, 4808, 4794, 4786, 4782, 4777, 4768, 4757, 4740

Have a good day.



Aliom Pty Limited (ACN 123 876 291 AFSL 323182) does not warrant the accuracy, completeness or correctness of any information herein. In preparing this post, Aliom Pty Limited has not taken into account the investment objectives, financial situation or particular needs of any particular person. Before making an investment decision on the basis of information in this post you should consider whether the information is appropriate in light of your particular investment objectives, financial situation or particular needs. You may wish to consult a licenced advisor or accountant to assist your decision.


----------



## nielsend

Acouch, I'm completely at a loss as to what the 'road map' is telling me? Care to elaborate?


----------



## acouch

nielsend said:


> Acouch, I'm completely at a loss as to what the 'road map' is telling me? Care to elaborate?




ok looks like the site is back up and working now..

the red  line = lis, denotes the trend
above you are long, below you are short..
unless scalping
all nos are strong nos as they all stem from the lis..
hope this is of some help
ac


----------



## acouch

ok these are the charts of road map i want to post this morning..
first one is the road map after its 24 hrs stint, the other
is today's road map
have a great day, and good trades
ac


----------



## acouch

evening all
talk about range trading..
what a move this will be when it breaks out
ac


----------



## acouch

good afternoon all
Mondays road map
have a great weekend and take care
ac
:couch


----------



## GMS

Good Morning,

The SPI200 December 09 contract continued to distribute higher Friday morning to session high 4875. Responsive selling capped the advance rotating the market lower through the course of the session.

The market rotated off 4852 on the open Friday night to develop back inside the previous session range, to a high of 4877, before rotating lower again triggering an initiating sell tail at 4852 and distributing lower to key support 4814. Development featured through morning session.

The market remains in the 4812 to 4869 development of previous sessions. A break of development low 4814/12 opens potential for a distribution to initially 4786, 4772 then 4757. Initial resistance is at 4832, then key resistance at 4852, development high 4869, 4878 and 4926.

Resistance levels 4932, 4839, 4852, 4865, 4869, 4878, 4886, 4902, 4910
Support levels 4822, 4812, 4808, 4794, 4786, 4782, 4777, 4768

Value Area Levels (Source Bloomberg)
Previous SYCOM and Day Session 4808 to 4860
Overnight Session 4826 to 4864


Have a good day.



Aliom Pty Limited (ACN 123 876 291 AFSL 323182) does not warrant the accuracy, completeness or correctness of any information herein. In preparing this post, Aliom Pty Limited has not taken into account the investment objectives, financial situation or particular needs of any particular person. Before making an investment decision on the basis of information in this post you should consider whether the information is appropriate in light of your particular investment objectives, financial situation or particular needs. You may wish to consult a licenced advisor or accountant to assist your decision.


----------



## acouch

afternoon all
how today;s road map closed eod trading
ac


----------



## acouch

morning all,
today's road map
have a great day, and good trades
ac


----------



## acouch

eod road map
have a  great evening
ac


----------



## acouch

good morning all
today's road map
have a great day, and good trades
ac


----------



## GMS

Good Morning,

The SPI200 December 09 contract rejected a rotation higher yesterday triggering a responsive sell tail at 4794, and initially distributing to 4765, with some development. A late session distribution off the 4779 point of control took the market on a deeper distribution to session lows 4750.

Responsive selling capped another rotation higher through the first half of the night session, that rotated the market lower, triggering an initiating sell tail at 4757 extending the distribution to 4734, where a responsive buy tail broke the extension and the market developed in a 4728 to 4757 range into the close.

Distribution lower and imbalance have been the feature of the market in recent sessions. The responsive buy tail and development late in the overnight session, indicates the market has temporarily rejected a continuation of the distribution lower into the close.

Initial support is at prior development low 4740. A continuation of the distribution opens key support at 4728, 4700, prior development low 4682 and 4665/60. Initial resistance is at 4757, 4779, 4794 and prior development low 4812.

Resistance levels 4757, 4765, 4771, 4779, 4786, 4794, 4812, 4818, 4827
Support levels 4743/40, 4734, 4728, 4716, 4700, 4691, 4680, 4665/60, 4643, 4620

Value Area Levels (Source Bloomberg)
Previous SYCOM and Day Session 4777 to 4845
Overnight Session 4746 to 4775.

Have a good day.

Aliom Pty Limited (ACN 123 876 291 AFSL 323182) does not warrant the accuracy, completeness or correctness of any information herein. In preparing this post, Aliom Pty Limited has not taken into account the investment objectives, financial situation or particular needs of any particular person. Before making an investment decision on the basis of information in this post you should consider whether the information is appropriate in light of your particular investment objectives, financial situation or particular needs. You may wish to consult a licenced advisor or accountant to assist your decision.


----------



## acouch

afternoon all
road map close eod
ac


----------



## acouch

good morning all
today's road map
have a great day, and good trades
ac


----------



## GMS

Good Morning,

The SPI200 continued the distribution lower off the open yesterday, triggering another initial sell tail at 4745 and extending lower through the session. The overnight session saw further distribution and imbalance triggering another initial sell tail at 4683.

The market continues to distribute lower and remains imbalanced. 

Initial support is at 4597, with key support is at prior development high 4583, 4560 and 4538. Key resistance is at 4643, 4652, and 4683.

Resistance levels 4620, 4643, 4652, 4660/65, 4683, 4691, 4700
Support levels 4601, 4597, 4589, 4583, 4577, 4562/58, 4547, 4538, 4529

Value Area Levels (Source Bloomberg)
Previous SYCOM and Day Session 4716 to 4772
Overnight Session 4628 to 4676.

Have a good day.


Aliom Pty Limited (ACN 123 876 291 AFSL 323182) does not warrant the accuracy, completeness or correctness of any information herein. In preparing this post, Aliom Pty Limited has not taken into account the investment objectives, financial situation or particular needs of any particular person. Before making an investment decision on the basis of information in this post you should consider whether the information is appropriate in light of your particular investment objectives, financial situation or particular needs. You may wish to consult a licenced advisor or accountant to assist your decision.


----------



## acouch

evening all
today's road map with a little bit of sycom on it
have a great evening
ac


----------



## acouch

a look at road map after its 24 hr cycle
ac


----------



## acouch

good morning all
today's road map
have a great day  and good trades
ac


----------



## acouch

good morning all
Monday's road map
have a great weekend, and take care
ac


----------



## GMS

Good Morning,

The SPI200 December 09 contract traded a balanced session Friday, with rejecting responsive trades either side of the initial balance range 4629 to 4666.

On Friday night the market opened to a responsive sell tail trigger at 4618, that rotated the market lower. An initiating sell tail trigger at 4555 saw the market extend the distribution lower. A responsive buy tail at 4486, rejected the break lower and the market rotated higher into the close.

The market has resumed the distribution lower and remains imbalanced. 

Key support is at 4496, 4486, 4475, 4455 and 4442. Key resistance is at 4509, 4530, 4541, 4555 and 4564/68.


Have a good day.


Aliom Pty Limited (ACN 123 876 291 AFSL 323182) does not warrant the accuracy, completeness or correctness of any information herein. In preparing this post, Aliom Pty Limited has not taken into account the investment objectives, financial situation or particular needs of any particular person. Before making an investment decision on the basis of information in this post you should consider whether the information is appropriate in light of your particular investment objectives, financial situation or particular needs. You may wish to consult a licenced advisor or accountant to assist your decision.


----------



## acouch

good morning
Monday's spi road map update
in closing stages of its 24hr cycle
ac


----------



## acouch

good morning all
today's road map
have a great day, and good trades
ac


----------



## GMS

Good Morning,

The SPI200 December 09 contract rotated lower on the open yesterday triggering a responsive buy tail at 4518. Rotation off this level took the market higher through the remainder of the session, with development and balance.

In the overnight session the market continued to develop within the prior session range.

Key resistance is at 4587, and 4604, a break of which opens potential for a rotation to 4669, with resistance levels at 4617/23, 4640/43 and 4669. Key support is at 4563, a break opens potential for rotation to initially 4549 and deeper 4486. 

Have a good day.


Aliom Pty Limited (ACN 123 876 291 AFSL 323182) does not warrant the accuracy, completeness or correctness of any information herein. In preparing this post, Aliom Pty Limited has not taken into account the investment objectives, financial situation or particular needs of any particular person. Before making an investment decision on the basis of information in this post you should consider whether the information is appropriate in light of your particular investment objectives, financial situation or particular needs. You may wish to consult a licenced advisor or accountant to assist your decision.


----------



## acouch

evening all
hope you all backed the cup winner 
updated rm chart..you have to love the
LIS

if on the rm you only follow the break of lis you will make good money
ac


----------



## acouch

good morning all
today's road map
have a great day, and good trades
ac


----------



## acouch

good morning,
how yesterday's road map is closing  into its 24 hr cycle
ac


----------



## acouch

good morning all,
today's road map
have a great day and good trades
ac


----------



## GMS

Good Morning,

The SPI200 December 09 contract traded a balanced session yesterday, rotating off key support and resistance levels. Overnight the market rotated higher off the previous session point of control 4528, extending to resistance at 4579 where responsive selling capped the break and the market rotated back inside the development for the remainder of the session.

Initial resistance is at 4548, a break of which opens potential for rotation back to 4579, then 4602. Key support is initially at 4528, then 4512, a break of which opens potential for a rotation back to 4486/80 then 4453.

Resistance levels 4551, 4556, 4563, 4569, 4579, 4584, 4589, 4602
Support levels 4541, 4529, 4512, 4502, 4496, 4486, 4478, 4463, 4453

Value Area Levels (Source Bloomberg)
Previous SYCOM and Day Session 4477 to 4529
Overnight Session 4541 to 4567


Have a good day.



Aliom Pty Limited (ACN 123 876 291 AFSL 323182) does not warrant the accuracy, completeness or correctness of any information herein. In preparing this post, Aliom Pty Limited has not taken into account the investment objectives, financial situation or particular needs of any particular person. Before making an investment decision on the basis of information in this post you should consider whether the information is appropriate in light of your particular investment objectives, financial situation or particular needs. You may wish to consult a licenced advisor or accountant to assist your decision.


----------



## acouch

evening all
 better late than never
been out all day
ac


----------



## acouch

good morning all,
as you can see by today's road map
we have done a complete circle and have
ended back where we started yesterday on the road map
but we have closed higher on sycom..
have a great day and good trades
ac


----------



## GMS

Good Morning,

The SPI200 December 09 contract rotated lower off the initial balance phase yesterday, extending through the session to a 4502 low. Overnight the market initially traded in a 4496 to 4532 band before triggering an initiating buy tail at 4532 that extended the market back to the high of the current development 4579. 

The market remains within the development range of recent sessions at the close this morning. The double development towards the upside overnight indicates the market now moving to a bullish bias.

Initial resistance is at development high 4579, then 4602, 4620 and prior development low 4640. Key support is initially at current point of control 4564, 4551 and 4532.

Resistance levels 4579, 4584, 4589, 4602, 4620, 4626, 4640, 4669
Support levels 4569, 4564, 4556, 4551, 4541, 4529, 4512, 4502

Value Area Levels (Source Bloomberg)
Previous SYCOM and Day Session 4522 to 4563
Overnight Session 4515 to 4565.


Have a good day.


Aliom Pty Limited (ACN 123 876 291 AFSL 323182) does not warrant the accuracy, completeness or correctness of any information herein. In preparing this post, Aliom Pty Limited has not taken into account the investment objectives, financial situation or particular needs of any particular person. Before making an investment decision on the basis of information in this post you should consider whether the information is appropriate in light of your particular investment objectives, financial situation or particular needs. You may wish to consult a licenced advisor or accountant to assist your decision.


----------



## acouch

another day in the life of the road map
a:couch


----------



## acouch

good morning all,
Monday's road map
have a great weekend, and take care
ac


----------



## GMS

Good Morning,

The SPI200 December 09 contract initially rotated lower on Friday to 4556. Responsive buying rejected the move and the market rotated higher through development high 4579, extending to trigger an initiating buy tail late in the session at 4596.

On Friday night the market initially continued the extension, to then rotate lower where responsive buying rejected the break at 4551. The market rotated back through the session range to trigger a responsive sell tail at 4617, and closing at 4605

The market has broken to the upside out of the prior sessions development and has a bullish bias. Key resistance is at 4617, previous development low 4640 and 4669. Key support is at the current point of control 4596, a break of which opens potential for rotation to prior development high 4579, and 4556/51 levels where responsive buying featured Friday.

Resistance levels 4617, 4626, 4640, 4657, 4669, 4683, 4691
Support levels 4602, 4596, 4586, 4579, 4569, 4563, 4556/51


Value Area Levels (Source Bloomberg)
Previous SYCOM and Day Session 4526 to 4581
Overnight Session 4575 to 4607


Have a good day.



Aliom Pty Limited (ACN 123 876 291 AFSL 323182) does not warrant the accuracy, completeness or correctness of any information herein. In preparing this post, Aliom Pty Limited has not taken into account the investment objectives, financial situation or particular needs of any particular person. Before making an investment decision on the basis of information in this post you should consider whether the information is appropriate in light of your particular investment objectives, financial situation or particular needs. You may wish to consult a licenced advisor or accountant to assist your decision.


----------



## acouch

good morning all
today's road map
have a great day, and good trades
ac


----------



## GMS

Good Morning,

The SPI200 December 09 contract opened to an initiating buy tail yesterday distributing higher through the course of the session. Overnight the market continued the distribution higher triggering another initiating buy tail at 4716 and the market closed near session highs at 4762.

The market is in a distributive (vertical price action) and imbalanced phase. The double distribution to the upside overnight supports the bullish trend. A responsive sell tail was developing into the close this morning, indicating a temporary top maybe in place although it will require confirmation on the reopen.

A rotation lower opens up initial support at 4757/54, and 4727 with key support at 4716. A continuation of the distribution higher opens resistance at key level 4771/4779, 4794, and prior development low 4812.

Resistance levels 4771, 4779, 4786, 4794, 4812, 4818, 4827, 4834
Support levels 4757/54, 4743, 4734, 4727, 4716, 4700, 4689, 4683

Value Area Levels (Source Bloomberg)
Previous SYCOM and Day Session 4577 to 4658
Overnight Session 4696 to 4745


Have a good day.



Aliom Pty Limited (ACN 123 876 291 AFSL 323182) does not warrant the accuracy, completeness or correctness of any information herein. In preparing this post, Aliom Pty Limited has not taken into account the investment objectives, financial situation or particular needs of any particular person. Before making an investment decision on the basis of information in this post you should consider whether the information is appropriate in light of your particular investment objectives, financial situation or particular needs. You may wish to consult a licenced advisor or accountant to assist your decision.


----------



## acouch

morning,
a day in the life of the spi
ac

as i couldn't post chart earlier..
also here is today's road map
it is are run of yesterdays
have a great day, and good trades
ac


----------



## GMS

Good Morning,

The SPI December 09 contract continued the extension higher on the open yesterday, triggering a responsive sell tail at 4774, that capped the advance, rotating the market lower, to support level 4727. The market took a developing (horizontal price action) stance through the session.

Overnight the initially rotated lower to key support 4716, where responsive buying rotated the market higher initially to 4746. A initiating buy tail at 4746 extended the market to session high 4763, and the market rotated within this range through the remainder of the session.

Following several sessions of distribution (vertical price action), the market yesterday and overnight took a development and balanced stance, rotating within the 4716 to 4774 range. The market on the close indicates further development within the range today.

Key resistance is at 4774/79, 4794 and prior development low 4812. Key support is at 4746, 4727 and 4716.

Resistance levels 4757, 4763, 4774, 4779, 4786, 4794, 4812, 4818, 4827
Support levels 4746/43, 4736, 4727, 4716, 4700, 4689, 4683

Value Area Levels (Source Bloomberg)
Previous SYCOM and Day Session 4708 to 4758
Overnight Session 4730 to 4753.

I will be taking annual leave, and will resume the SPI analysis on Friday November 20th.


Have a good day.


Aliom Pty Limited (ACN 123 876 291 AFSL 323182) does not warrant the accuracy, completeness or correctness of any information herein. In preparing this post, Aliom Pty Limited has not taken into account the investment objectives, financial situation or particular needs of any particular person. Before making an investment decision on the basis of information in this post you should consider whether the information is appropriate in light of your particular investment objectives, financial situation or particular needs. You may wish to consult a licenced advisor or accountant to assist your decision.


----------



## nielsend

Enjoy your break and look forward to hearing from from you again later in the month.


----------



## acouch

take care and enjoy gms 

updated road map as of now
have a great evening
ac


----------



## acouch

good morning all
today's road map
have  a great day, and take care
ac


----------



## acouch

evening all,
eod plus a little of sycom
ac


----------



## acouch

good morning all
today's road map
hav e a great day, and good trades
ac


----------



## acouch

how the road map has panned out for the day  so far
ac


----------



## acouch

good afternoon all,
Monday's road map
have a great weekend and take care
ac


----------



## acouch

morning all
updated
Monday's road map coming to the end of its 24 hr cycle

ac


----------



## acouch

good morning all
today's road map
have a great day, and good trades
ac


----------



## Joolean

Lift your game ac. Your lis was 3 ticks off the high.
That's 3 ticks of MAE.


----------



## acouch

hahaha joolean 
will try and do better tomorrow, you have a good day
ac


----------



## acouch

a day in the life of the spi
have a great evening
ac


----------



## acouch

good morning  all
road map a little earlier as i have
to go out
have a great day, and good trades

ac


----------



## acouch

good morning all
today's road map
have a great day, and take care
ac


----------



## GMS

Good Morning,

The SPI200 December 09 contract continued to trade within the establishing development, of several sessions. The market is building towards price efficiency with the point of control at 4762. A distribution (vertical price movement) off this level is likely to hold the key to the next directional move.

Key resistance is at 4784, a break opens potential for an extension to 4812. Key support is at 4746, a break opens potential for a distribution to 4718 initially and 4700.

Resistance levels 4762, 4774, 4784, 4790, 4799, 4812, 4818, 4833
Support levels 4752, 4746, 4727, 4718, 4700, 4689, 4683.

Value Area Levels (Source Bloomberg)
Previous SYCOM and Day Session 4745 to 4776
Overnight Session 4757 to 4774

Have a good day.


Aliom Pty Limited (ACN 123 876 291 AFSL 323182) does not warrant the accuracy, completeness or correctness of any information herein. In preparing this post, Aliom Pty Limited has not taken into account the investment objectives, financial situation or particular needs of any particular person. Before making an investment decision on the basis of information in this post you should consider whether the information is appropriate in light of your particular investment objectives, financial situation or particular needs. You may wish to consult a licenced advisor or accountant to assist your decision.


----------



## acouch

evening all
today's road map with a bit of sycom
ac


----------



## acouch

good morning all
today's road map
have a great day, and good trades
ac


----------



## GMS

Good Morning,

The SPI200 continued to trade within the established development yesterday. Overnight an initiating sell tail triggered at 4755, and the market extended to 4724, where responsive buying rotated the market higher through the midsession. Early in the morning session the market rotated back to 4724, triggering an initiating sell tail off this level and distributing to 4685, where responsive buying rotated the market higher through the later phase of the session.

The market has distributed out of the established development overnight, and we may see a continuation of this move in the following sessions. The double distribution to the downside overnight has a bearish bias.

Key resistance is at 4724, a break of which opens potential for a rotation back to 4740/46, then 4755. Key support is at 4700 a break of which opens potential for a rotation to 4683 initially then 4669 and 4643/40.

Resistance levels 4718, 4713, 4746, 4752, 4763, 4771, 4784, 4790
Support levels 4707, 4700, 4689, 4683, 4669, 4660, 4643/40, 4626

Value Area Levels (Source Bloomberg)
Previous SYCOM and Day Session 4754 to 4773
Overnight Session 4698 to 4745

Have a good day.


Aliom Pty Limited (ACN 123 876 291 AFSL 323182) does not warrant the accuracy, completeness or correctness of any information herein. In preparing this post, Aliom Pty Limited has not taken into account the investment objectives, financial situation or particular needs of any particular person. Before making an investment decision on the basis of information in this post you should consider whether the information is appropriate in light of your particular investment objectives, financial situation or particular needs. You may wish to consult a licenced advisor or accountant to assist your decision.


----------



## acouch

good afternoon,
just a day in the life of the spi on the road map
have a great evening
a:couch


----------



## Joolean

Hey ac or GMS, wondering if I could I get your comment on some hypothetical market psychology.

I'm no pitchfork expert but I added these lines where it looked logical.
My thinking is that if we break the middle orange line, then we're probably breaking out of the current daily range, and it's a long way down from there. However in shorting the R3 line near the close, I was worried about a play back to the R2 line as it did on the open.

This question might be nonsensical as it hasn't actually played out and I know diddly about market participants, but if we were going to break lower, is there any logic to thinking that "They'd" want to shake out the shorts before doing so and buy it up 10 points to R2 first?
The spike up at open seemed to be testing the overnight value, but I can't see that there's anything left to test by a move to R2 again.
Of course I have no notion of who 'They' are or if 'They' exist. 
I'm interested in the intentions behind market movements and just wondered if you could offer an opinion on that scenario or at least confirm my idiocy on market mechanics.

Cheers,
Jules.


----------



## Joolean

Oh oops. I just realised the image I attached is missing the R labels I'd added somehow.
I won't bother re-attaching. The top down sloping orange line was R1, the white line below that was R2 and the white line below that one was R3.
As it stands, we broke higher in the evening session, but not as I'd hypothesized anyway. Still curious on your take of what this move up would mean if we were to then roll over.


----------



## acouch

Joolean said:


> Oh oops. I just realised the image I attached is missing the R labels I'd added somehow.
> I won't bother re-attaching. The top down sloping orange line was R1, the white line below that was R2 and the white line below that one was R3.
> As it stands, we broke higher in the evening session, but not as I'd hypothesized anyway. Still curious on your take of what this move up would mean if we were to then roll over.





as per chart the market is on a downward trend,and as your arrow indicates you would expect the market to do just that  and you would enter on the touch of the upward line to take your short  to the mid orange ML again to take profit..or snug your stop in at a higher place if you wanted to trail.
but remember the mid line is the 50%, and always a good place to take profit
hope this helps jules
have a great weekend 
ac


----------



## acouch

good morning all
Monday's road map
have a great weekend and take care
ac


----------



## Joolean

acouch said:


> as per chart the market is on a downward trend,and as your arrow indicates you would expect the market to do just that  and you would enter on the touch of the upward line to take your short  to the mid orange ML again to take profit..or snug your stop in at a higher place if you wanted to trail.
> but remember the mid line is the 50%, and always a good place to take profit
> hope this helps jules
> have a great weekend
> ac




Thanks ac. That scenario roughly panned out in the end. Perhaps it's selective hindsight vision, but it amazes me how well price tracks such straight lines. Profiting off them is another matter. 

I've been tracking volume at price with market delta for a while now, and volume seems almost entirely secondary to price targets. It's useful, but it's as if price is going to get to a particular point no matter what volume gets in the way.


----------



## GMS

Good Morning,

The SPI200 December 09 contract rotated within key resistance and support levels 4683 to 4724 on Friday, in a session of development following the distributive break lower in the prior sessions. 

Overnight the market initially continued to develop in the range, then triggered a distributive break lower that extended to 4646. Responsive buying rotated the market higher in the morning session to close at 4694.

The distributive break lower Friday night, continues the trend of prior sessions. The failure of a rejecting responsive buy tail at the low and double distribution to the downside indicate continuation of the bearish bias.

The point of control is 4693. A break above opens potential for a rotation to initially 4711 then 4724. A break at 4683 opens potential for a break to 4665.

Resistance levels 4700, 4711, 4718, 4724, 4746, 4752, 4763, 4771, 4784
Support levels 4693, 4683, 4671, 4665/60, 4643, 4626, 4618, 4602/4595.


Value Area Levels (Source Bloomberg)
Previous SYCOM and Day Session 4685 to 4735
Overnight Session 4655 to 4700


Have a good day


Aliom Pty Limited (ACN 123 876 291 AFSL 323182) does not warrant the accuracy, completeness or correctness of any information herein. In preparing this post, Aliom Pty Limited has not taken into account the investment objectives, financial situation or particular needs of any particular person. Before making an investment decision on the basis of information in this post you should consider whether the information is appropriate in light of your particular investment objectives, financial situation or particular needs. You may wish to consult a licenced advisor or accountant to assist your decision.


----------



## Broadway

GMS said:


> Good Morning,
> 
> The SPI200 December 09 contract rotated within key resistance and support levels 4683 to 4724 on Friday, in a session of development following the distributive break lower in the prior sessions.
> 
> Overnight the market initially continued to develop in the range, then triggered a distributive break lower that extended to 4646. Responsive buying rotated the market higher in the morning session to close at 4694.
> 
> The distributive break lower Friday night, continues the trend of prior sessions. The failure of a rejecting responsive buy tail at the low and double distribution to the downside indicate continuation of the bearish bias.
> 
> The point of control is 4693. A break above opens potential for a rotation to initially 4711 then 4724. A break at 4683 opens potential for a break to 4665.
> 
> Resistance levels 4700, 4711, 4718, 4724, 4746, 4752, 4763, 4771, 4784
> Support levels 4693, 4683, 4671, 4665/60, 4643, 4626, 4618, 4602/4595.




Hello GMS,
Thankyou for contributing.
I was wondering if you could define some of your phrases in laymans terms, please.
-  'in a session of development' ?
-  'distributive break lower' ?
-  'double distribution to the downside' ?

Is your method based on Market Profile or something else?

Regards,
Broadway.


----------



## GMS

Hello Broadway,

My analysis is based off market profile and capital flow charting. Development is horizontal price action on the chart and is the market accepting prices in a range. The market is said to be balancing. 

Distribution is vertical price action with the market breaking out of a development and taking a new directional move - higher or lower. In this situation the market is said to be imbalanced. 

The double distribution should be double development. In theory a market that has made two developments in a session has a bias in the direction that the two developments were established. On Friday night the market made the second development to the downside of the first, therefore indicating a bearish bias.

Let me know if you would like more information.

Cheers


----------



## GMS

Jules,

Without intimate knowledge of the market participant's intentions, its impossible to speculate that they are squeezing the shorts before selling the market lower. For all we know it could be a participant seeing value and buying on this view.

That said, keeping records and establishing whether the market is likely to rebound to the R2 line more often than not following taking a short on the R3 line, gives you a sharpert view of the market.

cheers.


----------



## Joolean

Thanks GMS. Yeah I take your point.
Perhaps I have too much time on my hands , but when I'm watching every trade go by, it gets me thinking about who and why someone bought or sold at a particular price. I can't ever really know but I do find it useful to contemplate, or second guess. 

Presumably the market movers aren't sitting there like me trying to work out which direction it's going minute by minute, but instead know whether they want to enter/exit the market and at which prices ahead of time based on a combination of fundamentals and charts. Then set about obfuscating the execution of those orders during the day or have a program do it for them.

Jules.


----------



## acouch

good morning all
today's road map
have a great day and good trades
ac


----------



## GMS

Good Morning,


The SPI200 December 09 contract rotated higher off the open yesterday on a responsive buy tail at 4695. Overnight the market continued higher, distributing to 4783, to rotate back to key level 4746 and closing 4762.

The market has rejected the downside distribution, returning to the established development of the last fortnight, where the market built price efficiency around 4762 (SPI Analysis report 19/11)

Key resistance is at 4784, a break opens potential for an extension of the current distribution to 4804 then 4812.
Key support is at 4762, a break opens potential for a rotation to the lower side of the prior development 4752 and 4746. 

Resistance levels 4771, 4784, 4790, 4804, 4812, 4818, 4833, 4844. 4852
Support levels 4762, 4752, 4746, 4724, 4718, 4711, 4700, 4694, 4683

Value Area Levels (Source Bloomberg)
Previous SYCOM and Day Session 4669 to 4724
Overnight Session 4739 to 4768


Have a good day


Aliom Pty Limited (ACN 123 876 291 AFSL 323182) does not warrant the accuracy, completeness or correctness of any information herein. In preparing this post, Aliom Pty Limited has not taken into account the investment objectives, financial situation or particular needs of any particular person. Before making an investment decision on the basis of information in this post you should consider whether the information is appropriate in light of your particular investment objectives, financial situation or particular needs. You may wish to consult a licenced advisor or accountant to assist your decision.


----------



## acouch

spi road map eod trading
ac


----------



## acouch

good morning  all
today's road map
this is the last one for the week as i will be away
for a few days..road map back for Monday's trading
have a great day, and good trades
ac


----------



## GMS

Good Morning,

The SPI200 December 09 contract rotated off the development high early yesterday, extending lower through the day session. Overnight the market continued the distribution lower to 4679, to then rotate higher to key resistance 4724, where responsive selling again rotated the market lower.
The market has rotated lower, although responsive buying overnight rejected the continuation of a distributive break lower. Key support is at 4683, a break opens potential for continuation of the distributive break and imbalance. Key resistance is initially at 4724 then 4746

Resistance levels 4711, 4718, 4724, 4746, 4752/55, 4763, 4771
Support levels 4700, 4693, 4683, 4671, 4665/60, 4643, 4626

Value Area Levels (Source Bloomberg)
Previous SYCOM and Day Session 4720 to 4766
Overnight Session 4686 to 4709.



Have a good day


----------



## GMS

Good Morning,


The SPI200 December 09 contract initially rotated lower yesterday to key support 4683, triggering a responsive buy tail that rotated the market higher initially to key resistance 4724. A late session break of 4724 took the market higher into the close.

Overnight the market continued the rotation higher, to key resistance level 4762, and closing at 4759.

The market has again failed to break the 4683 development low and distribute lower. The rotation higher puts the market back in the established development. Early signs of a responsive sell tail trigger at 4762 into the close this morning, indicates the market may be rejecting an advance above this level, although we require confirmation of the signal on the reopen.
Key resistance is initially at 4762 and development high 4779/84. A break of this level opens potential for a new distribution and imbalance. Key support is initially at the current point of control 4746 then 4724.

Resistance levels, 4762, 4771, 4779/84, 4790, 4804, 4812, 4818, 4833, 4844
Support levels 4752, 4746, 4724, 4718, 4711, 4700, 4694, 4683

Value Area Levels (Source Bloomberg)
Previous SYCOM and Day Session 4690 to 4716
Overnight Session 4737 to 4751.

Have a good day.


Aliom Pty Limited (ACN 123 876 291 AFSL 323182) does not warrant the accuracy, completeness or correctness of any information herein. In preparing this post, Aliom Pty Limited has not taken into account the investment objectives, financial situation or particular needs of any particular person. Before making an investment decision on the basis of information in this post you should consider whether the information is appropriate in light of your particular investment objectives, financial situation or particular needs. You may wish to consult a licenced advisor or accountant to assist your decision.


----------



## GMS

Good Morning,

The SPI200 December 09 contract failed in its extension higher on the open yesterday, rotating lower back through the development through the session.

Overnight in the shortened session, the market triggered an initiating sell tail at 4702 and the market distributed lower out of the development low 4683 to 4656 where responsive buying rotated the market back to a high of 4683, and the market rotated within this range into the close.

The market has made a distributive break to the downside raising the potential for increased volatility and imbalance today. A continuation of the distribution today opens key support at 4647 and 4621. Key resistance is at 4683 and 4702.

Resistance levels, 4683, 4689, 4700/02, 4711, 4718, 4724, 4746, 4752
Support levels 4671, 4665/60, 4647, 4626, 4621, 4602/4595, 4586, 4579, 4569

Value Area Levels (Source Bloomberg)
Previous SYCOM and Day Session 4723 to 4750
Overnight Session 4659 to 4695

Have a good day.



Aliom Pty Limited (ACN 123 876 291 AFSL 323182) does not warrant the accuracy, completeness or correctness of any information herein. In preparing this post, Aliom Pty Limited has not taken into account the investment objectives, financial situation or particular needs of any particular person. Before making an investment decision on the basis of information in this post you should consider whether the information is appropriate in light of your particular investment objectives, financial situation or particular needs. You may wish to consult a licenced advisor or accountant to assist your decision.


----------



## acouch

good morning all
today's road map
have a great day, and good trades
ac


----------



## GMS

Good Morning,

The SPI200 December 09 contract continued the distribution lower Friday on the reopen, triggering a responsive buy tail at 4568 that rejected the break lower. The market rotated higher through the remainder of the session developing in a 4569 to 4611 range.
The market opened Friday night and resumed the distribution lower, to a responsive buy tail at 4644, that rejects the break, and the market rotates higher. An initiating buy tail triggered at 4605 extending the move higher to 4657, where responsive selling caps the advance and the market develops through the remainder of the session.
Key resistance is at 4656, then 4683, a break here opens potential for a rotation to 4700/02. Initial support is at 4626, and key support at 4611, a break here opens potential for a rotation back to 4589 and 4567.

Resistance levels, 4643, 4656, 4660, 4665, 4761, 4683, 4689, 4700/02, 4711, 4718
Support levels 4626, 4818, 4611, 4605, 4597, 4586, 4579, 4567, 4563, 4544

Value Area Levels (Source Bloomberg)
Previous SYCOM and Day Session 4582 to 4667
Overnight Session 4564 to 4627


Have a good day.

Aliom Pty Limited (ACN 123 876 291 AFSL 323182) does not warrant the accuracy, completeness or correctness of any information herein. In preparing this post, Aliom Pty Limited has not taken into account the investment objectives, financial situation or particular needs of any particular person. Before making an investment decision on the basis of information in this post you should consider whether the information is appropriate in light of your particular investment objectives, financial situation or particular needs. You may wish to consult a licenced advisor or accountant to assist your decision.


----------



## acouch

afternoon all
a day in the life of the spi
ac


----------



## acouch

good morning all
today's road map
have a great day, and good trades
ac


----------



## GMS

Good Morning,

The SPI200 December 09 contract traded higher through the establishing development yesterday, triggering an initiating buy tail at 4665 and extending to the high side of the development.

Overnight the market rotated lower off the initial phase triggering a responsive buy tail at 4660, to then rotate through the range to set a new session high 4710.

The market has closed unable to distribute out of the current development high, although the lack of a responsive sell tail at the highs overnight, indicates potential for further upside today.

Key resistance is at 4711, then 4724 and 4746. Key support is initially at 4702/00, the current point of control 4683 and 4662.

Resistance levels, 4711, 4718, 4724, 4746, 4762, 4771, 4784, 4790, 4804
Support levels 4702/00, 4689, 4683, 4671, 4665, 4660, 4656, 4643, 4626

Value Area Levels (Source Bloomberg)
Previous SYCOM and Day Session 4578 to 4686
Overnight Session 4667 to 4693.

Have a good day.



Aliom Pty Limited (ACN 123 876 291 AFSL 323182) does not warrant the accuracy, completeness or correctness of any information herein. In preparing this post, Aliom Pty Limited has not taken into account the investment objectives, financial situation or particular needs of any particular person. Before making an investment decision on the basis of information in this post you should consider whether the information is appropriate in light of your particular investment objectives, financial situation or particular needs. You may wish to consult a licenced advisor or accountant to assist your decision.


----------



## acouch

morning all
road map coming into close on sycom
ac


----------



## acouch

good moring all
today's road map
have a great day , and good trades
ac


----------



## GMS

Good Morning,

The SPI200 December 09 contract continued the extension higher yesterday, making a distributive break through the development high and extending higher through the course of the session.

Overnight the market continued the distribution higher, moving back to the development range that featured through November 09, 4746 to 4784. 

Key resistance is now at 4779/84, a break of this prior development high opens to levels at 4814 and 4833. Key support is at 4762/59 prior development low 4746 and 4784
Resistance levels, 4779/84, 4790, 4804, 4812, 4833, 4844, 4850, 4863, 4868
Support levels 4771, 4762/59, 4746, 4733, 4727, 4718, 4711, 4702/00

Value Area Levels (Source Bloomberg)
Previous SYCOM and Day Session 4672 to 4709
Overnight Session 4743 to 4776.


Have a good day.

Aliom Pty Limited (ACN 123 876 291 AFSL 323182) does not warrant the accuracy, completeness or correctness of any information herein. In preparing this post, Aliom Pty Limited has not taken into account the investment objectives, financial situation or particular needs of any particular person. Before making an investment decision on the basis of information in this post you should consider whether the information is appropriate in light of your particular investment objectives, financial situation or particular needs. You may wish to consult a licenced advisor or accountant to assist your decision.


----------



## acouch

good morning all
today's road map
have a great day, and good trades
p.s gap fill today is at 4737

ac


----------



## GMS

Good Morning,

The SPI200 December 09 contract distributed higher in the initial balance phase yesterday, triggering a responsive sell tail at 4795, that rejected the break, and rotated the market lower into the prior 4746 to 4784 development.

Overnight the market continued to trade within the development. Another attempt to distribute to the upside triggered a responsive sell tail at 4794, and the market rotated lower into the session close.

The market has taken a development and balanced stance. Initial resistance is at 4779/84, with key resistance at 4794/95. A break here opens potential for a continuation of the distribution higher and market imbalance. Key support is initially at 4762. A break here opens potential for a rotation back to 4746. A break of 4746 opens potential for a distributive break to the low side.

Resistance levels, 4779/84, 4794/95, 4804, 4812, 4833, 4844, 4850, 4863, 4868
Support levels 4771, 4762/59, 4746, 4733, 4727, 4718, 4711, 4702/00

Value Area Levels (Source Bloomberg)
Previous SYCOM and Day Session 4751 to 4786
Overnight Session 4764 to 4780.

Have a good day.


Aliom Pty Limited (ACN 123 876 291 AFSL 323182) does not warrant the accuracy, completeness or correctness of any information herein. In preparing this post, Aliom Pty Limited has not taken into account the investment objectives, financial situation or particular needs of any particular person. Before making an investment decision on the basis of information in this post you should consider whether the information is appropriate in light of your particular investment objectives, financial situation or particular needs. You may wish to consult a licenced advisor or accountant to assist your decision.


----------



## acouch

good morning all,
today's road map
have a great day, and good trades
ac


----------



## noirua

:topic With all the interest in trading you may not have had time and have not noticed that a forum competition is taking place at The Bull. Less than one week left and ASF needs to step up a gear to avoid slipping backwards again. Voting is at http://www.thebull.com.au/the_stockies_list.php?c=Forums :thankyou:


----------



## nat

Hi acouch ,was just wondering is your line in the sand made from your chart or is it a mathamatical calculation ,understand if dont want to divulge .

I have a similar lis which sometimes is exactly same as yours but then is out 5 points or sometimes more, then all of a sudden is same again. 

Thanx for continuing your charts, are still helpful ,i am gradually getting the hang of this game , Nathan


----------



## acouch

nat said:


> Hi acouch ,was just wondering is your line in the sand made from your chart or is it a mathametical calculation ,understand if don't want to divulge .
> 
> I have a similar lis which sometimes is exactly same as yours but then is out 5 points or sometimes more, then all of a sudden is same again.
> 
> Thanks for continuing your charts, are still helpful ,i am gradually getting the hang of this game , Nathan




 t is made from my chart Nat, but all those lines are mathematical eod..
well done then on your continuing success 
ac


----------



## acouch

morning,
a day in the life of the road map
ac


----------



## acouch

good morning all
Monday's road map
have a great weekend and take care
ac


----------



## acouch

morning,

how our road map looked after its 24 hr cycle
ac


----------



## acouch

good morning all
today's road map
have a great day, and good trades
ac


----------



## GMS

Good Morning,

The SPI200 December 09 contract resumed the distribution lower on the open yesterday, to trigger an initiating sell tail at 4699, that extended the break to session low 4656. Responsive buying entered the market to close the session at 4673.

In the overnight session the distribution lower continued. A rejecting responsive buy tail trigger at 4632 rotated the market higher. Responsive selling at 4691 capped the advance with the market closing at 4674.

The market has temporarily rejected the distribution lower with the responsive buy tail at 4632, and has taken a development and balanced stance through the remainder of the session. Key resistance is at 4683 and 4700. Key support is at current point of control 4665, 4556/51. A Break here opens potential for a continuation of the distribution lower.

Resistance: 4683, 4691, 4700/02, 4711, 4720, 4727, 4746, 4762
Support: 4671, 4665, 4656, 4651, 4640, 4632, 4617, 4605, 4596

Value Area Levels (Source Bloomberg)
Previous SYCOM and Day Session 4686 to 4752
Overnight Session 4650 to 4680.

Have a good day.


Aliom Pty Limited (ACN 123 876 291 AFSL 323182) does not warrant the accuracy, completeness or correctness of any information herein. In preparing this post, Aliom Pty Limited has not taken into account the investment objectives, financial situation or particular needs of any particular person. Before making an investment decision on the basis of information in this post you should consider whether the information is appropriate in light of your particular investment objectives, financial situation or particular needs. You may wish to consult a licenced advisor or accountant to assist your decision.


----------



## acouch

Morning,
for interest
just thought i would show you how these ML's 
go into time...
as you can see by arrow marked..low on sycom hit exactly this morning.

ac


----------



## acouch

good morning all
today's road map
have a great day, and good trades

ac


----------



## GMS

Good Morning,

The SPI200 December 09 contract triggered a responsive sell tail at 4703 yesterday in the opening phase and rotated lower. The market maintained the development and balanced stance through the session following responsive buying off the session low 4657.
In the overnight session the market initially continued to develop, to then trigger an initiating sell tail at 4660, which extended the market lower and shifting to a distributive and imbalanced stance. 
The market has switched back to a development stance through the morning session after the distributive break. The lack of a rejecting responsive buy tail off the session lows, and double development to the downside overnight, indicate potential for a continuation of the distribution lower and imbalance today.
Key resistance is at 4640, then 4660, and 4683. Key support is at 4606 a break here opens potential for a continuation of the distributive break with key support at 4581 and 4556/51.

Resistance: 4617, 4632, 4640, 4660, 4665, 4671, 4683, 4691, 4700/02
Support: 4606, 4596, 4587, 4581, 4569, 4563, 4556/51, 4541, 4529

Value Area Levels (Source Bloomberg)
Previous SYCOM and Day Session 4655 to 4685
Overnight Session 4620 to 4668.


Have a good day.


Aliom Pty Limited (ACN 123 876 291 AFSL 323182) does not warrant the accuracy, completeness or correctness of any information herein. In preparing this post, Aliom Pty Limited has not taken into account the investment objectives, financial situation or particular needs of any particular person. Before making an investment decision on the basis of information in this post you should consider whether the information is appropriate in light of your particular investment objectives, financial situation or particular needs. You may wish to consult a licenced advisor or accountant to assist your decision.


----------



## acouch

good morning all
today's road map
have a great day, and good trades
ac


----------



## GMS

Good Morning,

The SPI200 December 09 contract continued the distribution lower on the reopen yesterday triggering a responsive buy tail at 4597 to rotate higher through the session to a 4644 high and develop within this range through the session.

The market continued to develop and rotate within this range, overnight. Of note was a responsive sell tail trigger at 4641.

The market is currently in a development and balanced stance. Key resistance is at 4640, a break opens potential for a rotation to 4660, then key resistance 4683. Key support is at 4606 a break of which opens potential for a rotation to 4597, then 4581.

Resistance: 4640, 4660, 4665, 4671, 4683, 4691, 4700/02
Support: 4632, 4617, 4606, 4596, 4587, 4581, 4569, 4563, 4556/51

Value Area Levels (Source Bloomberg)
Previous SYCOM and Day Session 4613 to 4660
Overnight Session 4607 to 4631.

Have a good day.


Aliom Pty Limited (ACN 123 876 291 AFSL 323182) does not warrant the accuracy, completeness or correctness of any information herein. In preparing this post, Aliom Pty Limited has not taken into account the investment objectives, financial situation or particular needs of any particular person. Before making an investment decision on the basis of information in this post you should consider whether the information is appropriate in light of your particular investment objectives, financial situation or particular needs. You may wish to consult a licenced advisor or accountant to assist your decision.


----------



## acouch

good morning all
today's road map
have a great day, and good trades
ac 

:couch


----------



## GMS

Good Morning,

The SPI200 December 09 contract continued to rotate within the establishing development yesterday. A midsession rejecting responsive sell tail at 4654 rotated the market lower to an initiating sell tail trigger at 4626 extending the break to trigger a responsive buy tail at 4600.

Overnight the market triggered a responsive buy tail at 4606 rotating the market higher through the development and again responsive selling capped the advance at 4654 with the market closing at 4640.

The market continues to rotate within the establishing development and is balanced.

Initial resistance is at 4640, a break opens potential for a rotation to key resistance and development high 4654/4660 then 4683. Key support is at 4626, then 4606 a break of which opens potential for a rotation to 4597, then 4581.

Resistance: 4640, 4654/4660, 4665, 4671, 4683, 4691, 4700/02
Support: 4632, 4626, 4617, 4606, 4596, 4587, 4581, 4569, 4563, 4556/51

Value Area Levels (Source Bloomberg)
Previous SYCOM and Day Session 4608 to 4637
Overnight Session 4622 to 4648


Have a good day.


Aliom Pty Limited (ACN 123 876 291 AFSL 323182) does not warrant the accuracy, completeness or correctness of any information herein. In preparing this post, Aliom Pty Limited has not taken into account the investment objectives, financial situation or particular needs of any particular person. Before making an investment decision on the basis of information in this post you should consider whether the information is appropriate in light of your particular investment objectives, financial situation or particular needs. You may wish to consult a licenced advisor or accountant to assist your decision.


----------



## acouch

what can i say..
you have to love the LIS :couch

have a great evening 
ac


----------



## Largesse

how are you calculating your levels acouch?


----------



## acouch

they are all done with medianlines Largesse

i set the chart up before the contract starts..
and the nos are projected ahead,
 and then it lasts for the next 3 months 
as if you look at past charts you can see how it projects into time
a simple tool
it has a 80% strike rate
so worth the effort to learn it well
hope this helps
ac


----------



## acouch

good morning all
Monday's road map
have a great weekend and take care
ac


----------



## GMS

Good Morning,

The SPI200 December 09 contract opened to responsive selling at 4654 on Friday rotating lower into the development, to trigger a responsive buy tail at 4624. The market rotated higher through the session range triggering an initiating buy tail at 4654 to distribute out of the development in the closing phase.

In the overnight session the distribution higher continued, to session high 4676, then rotating lower where a responsive buy tail at 4643 rotated the market higher to close at 4656.

The distributive break higher Friday night, off the previous session point of control 4645, indicates the market is rejecting the established development of recent sessions, and may continue the distribution higher going forward.

Key resistance is at 4683 and 4700. Key support is at 4654 and 4645. 

Resistance: 4660, 4665, 4671, 4683, 4691, 4700/02, 4711, 4720, 4727
Support: 4654, 4645, 4640, 4632, 4626, 4617, 4606, 4596, 4587, 4581

Value Area Levels (Source Bloomberg)
Previous SYCOM and Day Session 4626 to 4648
Overnight Session 4650 to 4668

Have a good day.


Aliom Pty Limited (ACN 123 876 291 AFSL 323182) does not warrant the accuracy, completeness or correctness of any information herein. In preparing this post, Aliom Pty Limited has not taken into account the investment objectives, financial situation or particular needs of any particular person. Before making an investment decision on the basis of information in this post you should consider whether the information is appropriate in light of your particular investment objectives, financial situation or particular needs. You may wish to consult a licenced advisor or accountant to assist your decision.


----------



## acouch

afternoon,
Monday's road map updated eod..
have a great evening
ac :


----------



## acouch

good morning all
today's road map 
have a great day, and good trades
ac


----------



## GMS

Good Morning,

The SPI200 December 09 contract rotated lower off the open yesterday, rejecting the distribution higher of the previous session, to trade back inside the establishing development. A late session initiating buy tail triggered at 4657 and the market distributed higher again to close at 4675.

Overnight the market opened to a responsive sell tail, which again rejected the distribution higher to rotate the market back inside the development. A mid morning responsive buy tail at 4650 rejected the break to the downside.

Key resistance is initially at 4679/83, a break here resumes the distributive break higher, with key resistance following on at 4700 and 4721. Key support is at 4650/45, a break here opens potential for a rotation back to the low side of the current development 4632, 4606 and 4596.

Resistance: 4671, 4679/83, 4691, 4700/02, 4711, 4721, 4727, 4733
Support: 4660, 4650/40, 4632, 4626, 4617, 4606, 4596, 4587

Value Area Levels (Source Bloomberg)
Previous SYCOM and Day Session 4627 to 4665
Overnight Session 4655 to 4670

Have a good day.



Aliom Pty Limited (ACN 123 876 291 AFSL 323182) does not warrant the accuracy, completeness or correctness of any information herein. In preparing this post, Aliom Pty Limited has not taken into account the investment objectives, financial situation or particular needs of any particular person. Before making an investment decision on the basis of information in this post you should consider whether the information is appropriate in light of your particular investment objectives, financial situation or particular needs. You may wish to consult a licenced advisor or accountant to assist your decision.


----------



## nielsend

Hi AC, firstly a quick thanks for continuing to post the daily roadmap for the SPI. 

I’ve been trading full time for a few months, just trading the SPI, and am always looking for new ideas to explore. I started following your daily chart posting a couple of months ago, and I’m still trying to familiarize myself with the way you work the median lines. 
My question is in regards to the way you setup the template to begin with. When searching through your previous post’s I came across your comment about setting the median lines up at the start of each new SPI contract. As we have a contract rollover on Thursday I figure this is a good time to ask if you can elaborate in a little more detail on how you set it up etc.

Apologies in advance if you have posted this info before, but when performing a search on this subject I couldn’t find anything in detail directly relating to this.

Thanks
Dash
:1zhelp:


----------



## acouch

nielsend said:


> Hi AC, firstly a quick thanks for continuing to post the daily roadmap for the SPI.
> 
> I’ve been trading full time for a few months, just trading the SPI, and am always looking for new ideas to explore. I started following your daily chart posting a couple of months ago, and I’m still trying to familiarize myself with the way you work the median lines.
> My question is in regards to the way you setup the template to begin with. When searching through your previous post’s I came across your comment about setting the median lines up at the start of each new SPI contract. As we have a contract rollover on Thursday I figure this is a good time to ask if you can elaborate in a little more detail on how you set it up etc.
> 
> Apologies in advance if you have posted this info before, but when performing a search on this subject I couldn’t find anything in detail directly relating to this.
> 
> Thanks
> Dash
> :1zhelp:




yes, i have the march contract up and running at the moment.just to watch it..so i can see if it is set up properly..as it has to run for 3 months.
the ML's are set up as ABC and projected forward..

what has been will come again..

and it is quite amazng how they also fall into fib nos..
but of course the Middle line the ML..is the 50% and has a 80% rate of being hit..
the other lines are action /reaction

not really good at explaining how i do it, i am afraid..
but i hope you can get the gist of what i have said..
ac


----------



## acouch

good morning all,
today's road map
have a great day, and good trades
ac

tomorrows map will be march contract..


----------



## GMS

Good Morning,

The SPI200 December 09 contract rotated higher off the responsive buy tail at 4657 in the opening phase yesterday. The market distributed to a high of 4695, to rotate lower and develop closing the session at 4663.

Overnight the market initially rotated to session high 4669, then, rotated to the low side of the development 4633 midsession. The market continued the broad rotations initially higher through the range to 4668 and back again to 4634, to close the session at 4642.

The market has rotated back in the development and is balanced.

Initial resistance is at 4650, then key resistance at 4679/83, 4700 and 4721. Key support is at 4632, a break here opens potential for a rotation to 4606, then 4596.

Resistance: 4650, 4657, 4662, 4671, 4679/83, 4691, 4700/02, 4711, 4721
Support: 4640, 4632, 4626, 4617, 4606, 4596, 4587, 4581, 4569, 4563

Value Area Levels (Source Bloomberg)
Previous SYCOM and Day Session 4658 to 4681
Overnight Session 4645 to 4662


Have a good day.


Aliom Pty Limited (ACN 123 876 291 AFSL 323182) does not warrant the accuracy, completeness or correctness of any information herein. In preparing this post, Aliom Pty Limited has not taken into account the investment objectives, financial situation or particular needs of any particular person. Before making an investment decision on the basis of information in this post you should consider whether the information is appropriate in light of your particular investment objectives, financial situation or particular needs. You may wish to consult a licenced advisor or accountant to assist your decision.


----------



## nielsend

Hi AC

You mentioned on another post back in 07 that you "scalp the spi with a 50 volume chart, and using the 50 cci..". 

Do you still use this strategy?


----------



## acouch

yes it is a pretty good chart..most of the time
but if the volume fades a 6 tic is also great..

ac


----------



## acouch

good morning all
today's road map
the beginning of a new three months journey
have a great day, and good trades
ac


----------



## GMS

Good Morning,

The SPI200 March 10 contract opened to an initiating buy tail at 4644 yesterday rotating higher to session high 4683, and developing within the range.

Overnight the market continued to rotate within the establishing development with a responsive buy tail at 4637 rejecting a move lower.

Initial resistance is at 4656, 4668 and key resistance at 4688. A Break at 4688 opens potential for a distributive break higher and imbalance. Key support is at 4644, a break here opens potential for a rotation to 4627, and key support at 4588.

Resistance: 4656, 4662, 4668, 4676, 4688, 4693, 4703, 4714
Support: 4644, 4639, 4627, 4620, 4615, 4599, 4588, 4581

Value Area Levels (Source Bloomberg)
Previous SYCOM and Day Session 4641 to 4667
Overnight Session 4648 to 4667

Have a good day.

Aliom Pty Limited (ACN 123 876 291 AFSL 323182) does not warrant the accuracy, completeness or correctness of any information herein. In preparing this post, Aliom Pty Limited has not taken into account the investment objectives, financial situation or particular needs of any particular person. Before making an investment decision on the basis of information in this post you should consider whether the information is appropriate in light of your particular investment objectives, financial situation or particular needs. You may wish to consult a licenced advisor or accountant to assist your decision.


----------



## acouch

our new road map seems to have settled in..
ac


----------



## acouch

good morning all
today's road map
have a great day, and good trades
ac


----------



## GMS

Good Morning,

The SPI200 March 10 contract rotated lower off the open yesterday, to trigger a rejecting buy tail at 4628. The market rotated back through the range to session high 4697 before rotating back to trade within the development.

The market continued to rotate within the development overnight, triggering a rejecting responsive sell tail at 4670, and triggered a rejecting responsive buy tail at 4622 to close at 4626.

The market continues to trade within the development rejecting distributive breaks to both the upside and downside yesterday and overnight.

Initial resistance is at 4627, a break here opens potential for a rotation to 4635 initially and key level 4670. Key support is at 4622 a break here opens potential for a rotation back to key level 4588. A break of 4588 opens potential for a new distributive break lower.

Resistance: 4627, 4634, 4644, 4656, 4662, 4668, 4676, 4688
Support: 4622, 4615, 4599, 4588, 4581, 4574, 4562, 4556

Value Area Levels (Source Bloomberg)
Previous SYCOM and Day Session 4644 to 4675
Overnight Session 4629 to 4658.

Have a good day.


Aliom Pty Limited (ACN 123 876 291 AFSL 323182) does not warrant the accuracy, completeness or correctness of any information herein. In preparing this post, Aliom Pty Limited has not taken into account the investment objectives, financial situation or particular needs of any particular person. Before making an investment decision on the basis of information in this post you should consider whether the information is appropriate in light of your particular investment objectives, financial situation or particular needs. You may wish to consult a licenced advisor or accountant to assist your decision.


----------



## acouch

Afternoon all,
Monday's road map
have a great weekend and take care
ac


----------



## GMS

Good Morning,

The SPI200 March 10 contract opened to a distributive break lower out of the establishing development on Friday. The market triggered a rejecting responsive buy tail at 4593 that rotated the market higher and back inside the development to close the session at 4638.

The market continued rotation within the development, in the Friday night session.

The market rejected the distributive break lower Friday and has now resumed the development phase within the 4622 to 4670 range discussed Friday.

Initial resistance is at 4662. Key resistance is at development high 4670 a break here opens potential for a new distributive break, with key resistance at 4688 and 4700. Initial support is at 4635, a break opens potential for a rotation to development low 4622. A break of the development low opens potential for a distributive break lower with key support at 4588.

Resistance: 4656, 4662, 4668, 4676, 4688, 4700, 4711, 4718
Support: 4652, 4644, 4640, 4635, 4622, 4615, 4599, 4588, 4581

Value Area Levels (Source Bloomberg)
Previous SYCOM and Day Session 4609 to 4652
Overnight Session 4635 to 4655

Have a good day.


Aliom Pty Limited (ACN 123 876 291 AFSL 323182) does not warrant the accuracy, completeness or correctness of any information herein. In preparing this post, Aliom Pty Limited has not taken into account the investment objectives, financial situation or particular needs of any particular person. Before making an investment decision on the basis of information in this post you should consider whether the information is appropriate in light of your particular investment objectives, financial situation or particular needs. You may wish to consult a licenced advisor or accountant to assist your decision.


----------



## GMS

Good Morning,

The SPI200 March 10 contract opened to a distributive break higher yesterday. Responsive selling at key level 4688 capped the advance and the market rotated back inside the development. A late session initiating sell tail triggered at 4654 extending the rotation lower and triggering a distributive break to the downside into the session close.

Overnight the market triggered a rejecting responsive buy tail at 4615 that rotated the market higher into the development, to trigger an initiating buy tail at 4626, and a rejecting responsive sell tail at 4663.

The market has rejected distributions, either side of the development, yesterday and overnight. The double distribution to the upside overnight has a bullish bias for the market today.

Initial resistance is at 4662. Key resistance is at development high 4670 a break here opens potential for a rotation to key level 4688 and 4700. Initial support is at 4652, a break opens potential for a rotation to 4639/35 and development low 4622. A break of the development low opens potential for a distributive break lower with key support at 4588.

Resistance: 4656, 4662, 4670, 4676, 4688, 4700, 4711, 4718
Support: 4652, 4644, 4639, 4635, 4622, 4615, 4599, 4588, 4581

Value Area Levels (Source Bloomberg)
Previous SYCOM and Day Session 4636 to 4667
Overnight Session 4623 to 4655

Have a good day.



Aliom Pty Limited (ACN 123 876 291 AFSL 323182) does not warrant the accuracy, completeness or correctness of any information herein. In preparing this post, Aliom Pty Limited has not taken into account the investment objectives, financial situation or particular needs of any particular person. Before making an investment decision on the basis of information in this post you should consider whether the information is appropriate in light of your particular investment objectives, financial situation or particular needs. You may wish to consult a licenced advisor or accountant to assist your decision.


----------



## GMS

Good Morning,


The SPI200 March 10 contract opened to a responsive buy tail at key level 4652 yesterday, rotating higher and continuing a development stance through the session. An initiating buy tail triggered late in the session at 4682, and the market extended higher in the close.

A responsive buy tail triggered at 4686 on the open overnight, taking the market to a distributive break out of the establishing development and extending to 4716. A responsive sell tail at 4716 rejected the break higher, and the market returned to a development phase trading a 4702 to 4715 range through the remainder of the session.

The market has made a distributive break higher, with a temporary high now at 4716, and has closed this morning back in a development phase.

Initial resistance is at 4716, a break here resumes the distributive break higher, with key resistance initially at 4737, a break here opens potential for a rotation to 4746 initially, then 4762. Key support is at 4702/00, a break opens potential for a rotation back to prior development highs 4688 and 4670.

Resistance: 4711, 4716, 4724, 4737, 4746, 4759/62, 4771, 4779/84, 4794
Support: 4702/00, 4695, 4688, 4682, 4676, 4670, 4662, 4656, 4652, 4644

Value Area Levels (Source Bloomberg)
Previous SYCOM and Day Session 4632 to 4672
Overnight Session 4696 to 4711

Have a good day.



Aliom Pty Limited (ACN 123 876 291 AFSL 323182) does not warrant the accuracy, completeness or correctness of any information herein. In preparing this post, Aliom Pty Limited has not taken into account the investment objectives, financial situation or particular needs of any particular person. Before making an investment decision on the basis of information in this post you should consider whether the information is appropriate in light of your particular investment objectives, financial situation or particular needs. You may wish to consult a licenced advisor or accountant to assist your decision.


----------



## GMS

Good Morning,

The SPI200 March 10 contract triggered a responsive buy tail in the opening phase yesterday, rotating to trigger an initiating buy tail at 4711 and extending to 4737. The market developed in the 4724 to 4737 range, until another initiating buy tail triggered at 4739 in the close.

Overnight the distribution higher continued to 4756 initially, to then rotate and develop back to 4739, where another rejecting responsive buy tail rotated the market higher, this time extending to 4761 and closing at 4752.

The market continued the distributive break higher yesterday and overnight. The lack of a rejecting responsive sell tail at session high 4761, indicates potential for a retest of the high.

Key resistance is at 4762, a break maintains the distributive price action. Key resistance then follows at 4779/84 and 4794/95. Key support at 4739/37, a break here opens potential for a rotation to 4716 initially then 4702/00.

Resistance: 4756 4762, 4771, 4779/84, 4794, 4804, 4812, 4833
Support:  4746, 4739/37, 4724, 4716, 4711, 4700, 4695.

Value Area Levels (Source Bloomberg)
Previous SYCOM and Day Session 4696 to 4723
Overnight Session 4744 to 4755

Have a Merry Christmas.

Aliom Pty Limited (ACN 123 876 291 AFSL 323182) does not warrant the accuracy, completeness or correctness of any information herein. In preparing this post, Aliom Pty Limited has not taken into account the investment objectives, financial situation or particular needs of any particular person. Before making an investment decision on the basis of information in this post you should consider whether the information is appropriate in light of your particular investment objectives, financial situation or particular needs. You may wish to consult a licenced advisor or accountant to assist your decision.


----------



## GMS

Good Morning,

The SPI200 March 10 contract continued the distributive break higher Thursday triggering an initiating buy tail at 4784 and extending to session high 4814 on the close.

Overnight the distribution continued with the market opening at 4844. The market rotated lower off the open with responsive buying at session low 4814, and development in the 4814 to 4832 range through to the session close.

The market has turned to a development phase overnight following the distributive break, although the lack of a rejecting responsive sell tail indicates potential for a resumption of the distributive break remains.

Initial resistance is at 4833, with key resistance at 4846, a break here opens potential for a continuation of the distribution higher. Initial support is at 4815, a break here opens potential for a rotation to 4794 initially, then 4784.

Resistance: 4833, 4846, 4850, 4863, 4868, 4877, 4889/91, 4902
Support: 4825, 4819, 4815, 4804, 4794, 4784/79, 4771, 4762

Value Area Levels (Source Bloomberg)
Previous SYCOM and Day Session 4743 to 4776
Overnight Session 4818 to 4831


Have a good day


Aliom Pty Limited (ACN 123 876 291 AFSL 323182) does not warrant the accuracy, completeness or correctness of any information herein. In preparing this post, Aliom Pty Limited has not taken into account the investment objectives, financial situation or particular needs of any particular person. Before making an investment decision on the basis of information in this post you should consider whether the information is appropriate in light of your particular investment objectives, financial situation or particular needs. You may wish to consult a licenced advisor or accountant to assist your decision.


----------



## GMS

Good Morning,

The SPI200 March 10 contract continued higher in the opening phase yesterday to 4849. Responsive selling rotated the market lower to trigger a rejecting responsive buy tail at 4822 that rotated the market back through the session range, with development into the closing phase. An initiating buy tail triggered at 4856 in the closing phase, resuming the distribution higher.

Overnight the market triggered a rejecting responsive sell tail early in the session at 4852, rotating the market higher and distributing to a session high of 4881. Responsive selling rotated the market lower and development featured through the remainder of the session.

The market has turned to a development phase overnight following the distributive break, although the lack of a rejecting responsive sell tail indicates potential for a resumption of the distributive break remains.

Initial resistance is at 4868, then 4881, a break here opens potential for a resumption of the distributive break higher, with key resistance at 4889/91. Key support is at 4852/50, a break here opens potential for a rotation to 4840 initially, then 4822.

Resistance: 4863, 4868, 4877, 4889/91, 4902, 4918, 4925, 4942
Support: 4857, 4850, 4846, 4840, 4833, 4825, 4819, 4815, 4804, 4794

Value Area Levels (Source Bloomberg)
Previous SYCOM and Day Session 4822 to 4844
Overnight Session 4858 to 4874

Have a good day.


Aliom Pty Limited (ACN 123 876 291 AFSL 323182) does not warrant the accuracy, completeness or correctness of any information herein. In preparing this post, Aliom Pty Limited has not taken into account the investment objectives, financial situation or particular needs of any particular person. Before making an investment decision on the basis of information in this post you should consider whether the information is appropriate in light of your particular investment objectives, financial situation or particular needs. You may wish to consult a licenced advisor or accountant to assist your decision.


----------



## GMS

Good Morning,

The SPI200 March 10 contract continued trading within the development yesterday. An initiating sell tail triggered at 4857 rotating the market lower through the session, to trade in a 4828 to 4840 range.

In the overnight session, rotation continued within the development. A responsive buy tail triggered midsession at 4823 rotating the market higher and later a responsive sell tail at 4857 rotated the market lower to close at 4850.

The market maintains the development and balanced phase into the close this morning.

Initial resistance is at 4857, with key resistance at 4868, then 4881, a break here opens potential for a resumption of the distributive break higher, to key resistance at 4889/91. Key support is at 4852/50, a break here opens potential for a rotation to 4840 initially, then 4822, a break here opens potential for a distributive break out of the establishing development.

Resistance: 4857, 4863, 4868, 4877, 4889/91, 4902, 4918, 4925
Support: 4850, 4846, 4840, 4833, 4822, 4819, 4815, 4804, 4794

Value Area Levels (Source Bloomberg)
Previous SYCOM and Day Session 4839 to 4872    
Overnight Session 4831 to 4848


Happy New Year. May 2010 be a successful and enjoyable trading year.


GMS

Aliom Pty Limited (ACN 123 876 291 AFSL 323182) does not warrant the accuracy, completeness or correctness of any information herein. In preparing this post, Aliom Pty Limited has not taken into account the investment objectives, financial situation or particular needs of any particular person. Before making an investment decision on the basis of information in this post you should consider whether the information is appropriate in light of your particular investment objectives, financial situation or particular needs. You may wish to consult a licenced advisor or accountant to assist your decision.


----------



## GMS

Good Morning,

The SPI200 March 10 contract rotated off key support 4850 Thursday continuing to trade in the establishing development. An initiating buy tail triggered at 4871 in the closing phase extended the market higher to close at 4879.

Initial resistance is at 4881, a break here opens potential for a resumption of the distributive break higher, to key resistance at 4889/91. Key support is at 4868, then 4852/50, a break here opens potential for a rotation to 4840 initially, then 4822, a break here opens potential for a distributive break out of the establishing development.

Resistance: 4881, 4889/91, 4902, 4918, 4925, 4942, 4958, 4971
Support: 4868, 4863, 4857, 4850, 4846, 4840, 4833, 4822, 4819, 4815, 4804, 4794, 4785

Value Area Levels (Source Bloomberg)
Previous SYCOM and Day Session 4834 to 4862
Overnight Session Closed

Have a good day.



Aliom Pty Limited (ACN 123 876 291 AFSL 323182) does not warrant the accuracy, completeness or correctness of any information herein. In preparing this post, Aliom Pty Limited has not taken into account the investment objectives, financial situation or particular needs of any particular person. Before making an investment decision on the basis of information in this post you should consider whether the information is appropriate in light of your particular investment objectives, financial situation or particular needs. You may wish to consult a licenced advisor or accountant to assist your decision.


----------



## acouch

good morning,
hope you all had a great Christmas , and a very festive New Year
today's road map
as you can see it hadn't finished its cycle from Thursday.
have a great day, and good trades
ac


----------



## acouch

just a look at the road map coming into close
ac


----------



## acouch

good morning all,
today's road map
have a great day, and good trades
ac


----------



## GMS

Good Morning,

The SPI200 March 10 contract continued to trade within the prior development through the day session yesterday, with a session range of 4852 to 4884.

Overnight an initiating buy tail triggered at 4875 early in the session, and the market made a distributive break out of the development high. The distribution continued with further initiating buy tails at 4902 and 4923. A mid morning rejecting responsive sell tail at 4941, capped the advance and the market developed through to the close 

The market has put a temporary high in place at 4941, with the rejecting responsive sell tail, and has returned to a development phase. The focus now is on whether the market will continue to develop and accept prices in the current range or resume the distributive break higher today.

Key resistance is at 4941, a break here opens potential for a resumption of the distributive break higher, with key resistance at 4956/62 then 4978. Key support is at 4923, a break opens potential for a rotation to 4902 initially, then key level 4891/89 and key level 4875.

Resistance: 4933, 4942, 4956, 4962, 4971, 4978, 4985, 4992, 5000, 5009, 5016
Support: 4923, 4918, 4902, 4891/89, 4881, 4875, 4868, 4860, 4857, 4850 

Value Area Levels (Source Bloomberg)
Previous SYCOM and Day Session 4864 to 4881    
Overnight Session Closed 4885 to 4930

Have a good day.



Aliom Pty Limited (ACN 123 876 291 AFSL 323182) does not warrant the accuracy, completeness or correctness of any information herein. In preparing this post, Aliom Pty Limited has not taken into account the investment objectives, financial situation or particular needs of any particular person. Before making an investment decision on the basis of information in this post you should consider whether the information is appropriate in light of your particular investment objectives, financial situation or particular needs. You may wish to consult a licenced advisor or accountant to assist your decision.


----------



## acouch

good morning all,
today's road map
have a great day, and good trades
ac


----------



## GMS

Good Morning,

The SPI200 March 10 contract continued to develop yesterday following prior session distributive break. The market rotated lower in the opening phase to trigger a rejecting responsive buy tail at 4904, and trade in a 4907 to 4928 range through the remainder of the session.

The development continued in the overnight session, with a rejecting responsive buy tail at 4917 and rejecting responsive sell tail at 4943 to close 4938.

The market maintains the development phase into the close this morning. The break higher overnight off the prior session point of control 4918, indicates a bullish bias in the market at present.

Key resistance is at 4941, a break here opens potential for a resumption of a distributive break higher, with key resistance at 4956/62 then 4978. Key support is now at 4918, a break opens potential for a rotation to 4902 initially, then key level 4891/89 and 4881.

Resistance: 4941, 4956, 4962, 4971, 4978, 4985, 4992, 5000, 5009, 5016
Support: 4933, 4923, 4918, 4908, 4902, 4891/89, 4881, 4875, 4868, 4860

Value Area Levels (Source Bloomberg)
Previous SYCOM and Day Session 4894 to 4931
Overnight Session Closed 4922 to 4935


Have a good day.



Aliom Pty Limited (ACN 123 876 291 AFSL 323182) does not warrant the accuracy, completeness or correctness of any information herein. In preparing this post, Aliom Pty Limited has not taken into account the investment objectives, financial situation or particular needs of any particular person. Before making an investment decision on the basis of information in this post you should consider whether the information is appropriate in light of your particular investment objectives, financial situation or particular needs. You may wish to consult a licenced advisor or accountant to assist your decision.


----------



## acouch

morning all,
road map coming into close,
one tic of hod, one tic of low of day.
ac


----------



## acouch

good morning all
today's road map
have a great day, and good trades
ac


----------



## GMS

Good Morning,

The SPI200 March 10 contract rotated lower off the development high on the open yesterday to trade back though the development to a session low of 4905, and closing at 4912 in a balanced session.

The market initially rotated lower in the overnight session, triggering a rejecting responsive buy tail at 4901 that rotated the market higher and back inside the establishing development, to session high 4933 and closing at 4923.

The market continued to trade within the development yesterday and overnight.

Initial resistance is at 4933, a break opens potential for a rotation to key level 4941, a break here opens potential for a resumption of a distributive break higher, with key resistance at 4956/62 then 4978. Initial support is now at 4923, a break opens potential for a rotation to 4916 initially then 4902, a break here opens potential for a new distributive break lower, with support at key level 4891/89 and 4881.

Resistance: 4933, 4941, 4958, 4962, 4971, 4978, 4985, 4992, 5000, 5009, 5016
Support: 4923, 4916, 4908, 4902, 4891/89, 4881, 4875, 4868, 4860

Value Area Levels (Source Bloomberg)
Previous SYCOM and Day Session 4915 to 4934    
Overnight Session Closed 4908 to 4926


Have a good day.



Aliom Pty Limited (ACN 123 876 291 AFSL 323182) does not warrant the accuracy, completeness or correctness of any information herein. In preparing this post, Aliom Pty Limited has not taken into account the investment objectives, financial situation or particular needs of any particular person. Before making an investment decision on the basis of information in this post you should consider whether the information is appropriate in light of your particular investment objectives, financial situation or particular needs. You may wish to consult a licenced advisor or accountant to assist your decision.


----------



## acouch

good morning all.
today's road map
have a great day, and good trades
ac


----------



## GMS

My apologies for the late posting today.

The SPI200 March 10 contract rotated lower off 4928 in the opening phase yesterday, trading back inside the development. An initiating sell tail triggered at 4904, and the market made a distributive break lower out of the development to close the session at 4883.

The market continued the distribution lower on the open overnight to then develop within the new price range. The market has rotated higher this morning back inside the prior development (4902 to 4941), to close at 4908.



Initial resistance is at 4916, a break opens potential for a break to 4923 initially then 4933 and key level 4941. A break at 4941 opens potential for a resumption of a distributive break higher, with key resistance at 4956/62 then 4978.

Initial support is at key level 4902, a break opens potential for a rotation to 4891/89 then 4881. A break of key level 4875 resumes the distributive break lower to 4857 initially then 4852/50.

Resistance: 4916, 4923, 4933, 4941, 4958, 4962, 4971, 4978, 4985, 4992
Support: 4908, 4902, 4891/89, 4881, 4875, 4868, 4857, 4852/50, 4846

Value Area Levels (Source Bloomberg)
Previous SYCOM and Day Session 4901 to 4924
Overnight Session Closed 4880 to 4900

Have a good day.

Aliom Pty Limited (ACN 123 876 291 AFSL 323182) does not warrant the accuracy, completeness or correctness of any information herein. In preparing this post, Aliom Pty Limited has not taken into account the investment objectives, financial situation or particular needs of any particular person. Before making an investment decision on the basis of information in this post you should consider whether the information is appropriate in light of your particular investment objectives, financial situation or particular needs. You may wish to consult a licenced advisor or accountant to assist your decision.


----------



## acouch

good morning all,
Monday's road map
have a great weekend and take care
ac


----------



## GMS

Good Morning,


The SPI200 March 10 contract continued the rotation extension on the re open Friday, to the session high 4929. Responsive selling rotated the market lower and midafternoon an initiating sell tail triggered at 4904 to close the session at 4895.

On Friday night the market opened to development in the 4900 to 4916 range. Of note was a midsession rejecting responsive buy tail at 4898. In the closing phase an initiating buy tail was triggered at 4917, to close at 4926.

The market closed in the midst of an initiating buy tail although remains within the current development.

Initial resistance is at 4933 and key level 4941. A break at 4941 opens potential for a resumption of a distributive break higher, with key resistance at 4956/62 then 4978.

Initial support is at 4916, a break opens potential for a rotation to 4908 initially, then 4891/89 and 4881. A break of key level 4875 resumes the distributive break lower to 4857 initially then 4852/50.

Resistance: 4933, 4941, 4958, 4962, 4971, 4978, 4985, 4992, 5000, 5009
Support: 4923, 4916, 4908, 4902, 4891/89, 4881, 4875, 4868, 4857, 4852/50

Value Area Levels (Source Bloomberg)
Previous SYCOM and Day Session 4884 to 4913
Overnight Session Closed 4900 to 4914


Have a good day.


Aliom Pty Limited (ACN 123 876 291 AFSL 323182) does not warrant the accuracy, completeness or correctness of any information herein. In preparing this post, Aliom Pty Limited has not taken into account the investment objectives, financial situation or particular needs of any particular person. Before making an investment decision on the basis of information in this post you should consider whether the information is appropriate in light of your particular investment objectives, financial situation or particular needs. You may wish to consult a licenced advisor or accountant to assist your decision.


----------



## acouch

good morning all
today's road map
have a great day, and take care
ac


----------



## GMS

Good Morning,

The SPI200 March 10 contract continued to trade within the development yesterday morning. An initiating buy tail at 4940 distributed the market through the development high, and responsive selling at 4947 capped the advance to rotate back in the development and close at 4933.

Overnight the market resumed the distribution higher early in the session, to a session high of 4958. The market rotated lower from here to trigger a rejecting responsive buy tail at 4918 that rotated the market higher into the close.

The market has attempted to make distributive breaks through the upside of the current development, both yesterday and overnight, only to rotate back inside the development and remains balanced. The lack of a rejecting responsive sell tail on these breaks indicates the market has not rejected the breaks with potential for further attempts.

Initial resistance is at key level 4941, then 4958. A break at 4958 opens a resumption of the distributive break higher, with key resistance at 4978.

Initial support is at key levels 4933, and 4916, a break opens potential for a rotation to 4908 initially, then 4891/89 and 4881. A break of key level 4875 resumes the distributive break lower to 4857 initially then 4852/50.

Resistance: 4942, 4958, 4962, 4971, 4978, 4985, 4992, 5000, 5009
Support: 4933, 4923, 4916, 4908, 4902, 4891/89, 4881, 4875, 4868

Value Area Levels (Source Bloomberg)
Previous SYCOM and Day Session 4902 to 4933
Overnight Session Closed 4927 to 4951

Have a good day.


Aliom Pty Limited (ACN 123 876 291 AFSL 323182) does not warrant the accuracy, completeness or correctness of any information herein. In preparing this post, Aliom Pty Limited has not taken into account the investment objectives, financial situation or particular needs of any particular person. Before making an investment decision on the basis of information in this post you should consider whether the information is appropriate in light of your particular investment objectives, financial situation or particular needs. You may wish to consult a licenced advisor or accountant to assist your decision.


----------



## acouch

good morning all
today's road map
have a great day, and good trades
ac


----------



## GMS

Good Morning,

The SPI200 March 10 contract rotated lower yesterday, extending to trigger a midsession responsive buy tail at 4881. The market then rotated to 4897 to close at 4891.

Early in the overnight session the market triggered an initiating sell tail at 4897 that extended to a distributive break lower. Responsive buying at 4834 rotated the market higher to 4863, to rotate lower again and trigger a rejecting responsive buy tail at 4829. Development followed and the market closed 4841.

The market has made a distributive break lower overnight, with a temporary low at the responsive buy tail level 4829 in place and development.

Initial resistance is at 4845, a break opens potential for a rotation to 4863. Key levels follow at 4881 and 4897. Key support is at 4833/29, a break opens potential for a continuation of the distribution lower, with key levels at prior development low 4815 and 4794.

Resistance: 4846, 4850/52, 4857, 4863, 4868, 4875, 4881, 4889/91
Support: 4841, 4833, 4822, 4819, 4815, 4804, 4794, 4784/79

Value Area Levels (Source Bloomberg)
Previous SYCOM and Day Session 4902 to 4933
Overnight Session Closed 4927 to 4951

Have a good day


Aliom Pty Limited (ACN 123 876 291 AFSL 323182) does not warrant the accuracy, completeness or correctness of any information herein. In preparing this post, Aliom Pty Limited has not taken into account the investment objectives, financial situation or particular needs of any particular person. Before making an investment decision on the basis of information in this post you should consider whether the information is appropriate in light of your particular investment objectives, financial situation or particular needs. You may wish to consult a licenced advisor or accountant to assist your decision.


----------



## acouch

morning,
a day in the life of the road map
ac:couch


----------



## acouch

good morning
today's road map
have a great day, and good trades
ac


----------



## GMS

Good Morning,

The SPI200 March 10 contract followed on with the development late in the previous session, yesterday. The session range was 4837 to 4865.

In the overnight session, development continued with a rejecting responsive buy tail at 4830 rotating the market higher. Following on the market triggered an initiating buy tail at 4868 extending to trigger a rejecting responsive sell tail at 4880, and closing 4878.

The market has rejected the distribution lower through the 4833/29 level, and returned to a development phase, within a 4829 to 4868 range. The market has continued the rotation higher above 4868 this morning forming a second development that has a bullish bias for today.

Initial resistance is at 4881, a break opens potential for a rotation to 4897, initially then prior development low 4902/05 and key level 4923. Key support is at 4868, a break opens potential for a rotation to 4852/50 initially, then 4845 and key level development low 4833/29. A break at 4833/29 opens potential for a continuation of the distribution lower.

Resistance: 4881, 4889/91, 4902, 4908, 4916, 4923, 4933
Support: 4875, 4868, 4863, 4857, 4852/50, 4648, 4840, 4833, 4829

Value Area Levels (Source Bloomberg)
Previous SYCOM and Day Session 4836 to 4871
Overnight Session Closed 4838 to 4863

Have a good day.




Aliom Pty Limited (ACN 123 876 291 AFSL 323182) does not warrant the accuracy, completeness or correctness of any information herein. In preparing this post, Aliom Pty Limited has not taken into account the investment objectives, financial situation or particular needs of any particular person. Before making an investment decision on the basis of information in this post you should consider whether the information is appropriate in light of your particular investment objectives, financial situation or particular needs. You may wish to consult a licenced advisor or accountant to assist your decision.


----------



## acouch

good morning all
today's road map
have a great day and good trades
ac


----------



## GMS

Good Morning,

The SPI200 March 10 contract continued the rotation higher yesterday, to trigger a late morning rejecting responsive sell tail at 4905, capping the advance and rotating the market lower to develop through the remainder of the session in a 4877 to 4905 range.

The market continued to trade in a development phase through the overnight session, with a session range 4874 to 4899.

Key resistance is at prior development low 4902/05, a break opens potential for a rotation back into the 4902 to 4941 development, with key levels at 4923, 4933, and 4941.

Key support is at 4875, then key level 4868. A break at 4868 opens potential for a rotation back inside the 4868 to 4833/29 development with key levels at 4852/50, 4845 and key level development low 4833/29. A break at 4833/29 opens potential for a continuation of the distribution lower.

Resistance: 4902, 4908, 4916, 4923, 4933, 4941, 4958, 4962, 4971, 4978
Support: 4891/89, 4881, 4875, 4868, 4863, 4857, 4852/50, 4648, 4840, 4833, 4829

Value Area Levels (Source Bloomberg)
Previous SYCOM and Day Session 4850 to 4897
Overnight Session Closed 4880 to 4891

Have a good day.


Aliom Pty Limited (ACN 123 876 291 AFSL 323182) does not warrant the accuracy, completeness or correctness of any information herein. In preparing this post, Aliom Pty Limited has not taken into account the investment objectives, financial situation or particular needs of any particular person. Before making an investment decision on the basis of information in this post you should consider whether the information is appropriate in light of your particular investment objectives, financial situation or particular needs. You may wish to consult a licenced advisor or accountant to assist your decision.


----------



## acouch

good morning all
today's road map
have a great day, and good trades
ac


----------



## GMS

Good Morning,

The SPI200 March 10 contract rotated lower off the opening phase on Friday, to a responsive buy tail at 4840 that rotated the market back into a 4842 to 4862 development, through the session. A late session initiating buy tail at 4852 extended the market to 4886 to close 4870.

A responsive sell tail off the open at 4874 rotated the market lower in several rotations to a session low 4818. Responsive buying rotated the market higher to 4849 to close 4843.

The market attempted a distribution through the 4833/29 development low Friday night and rotated to close back in the development. The lack of a rejecting responsive buy tail at the low, indicates the potential for a retest of the level.

Key resistance is at 4850/52, prior development high, 4878, 4886 and prior development low 4902/05, a break opens potential for a rotation back into the 4902 to 4941 development.

Key support is at prior development low 4833/29, 4822, and 4815.

Resistance: 4846, 4850, 4855, 4863, 4868, 4875, 4881, 4886, 4891
Support: 4840, 4833, 4829, 4822, 4815, 4804, 4794, 4785

Value Area Levels (Source Bloomberg)
Previous SYCOM and Day Session 4856 to 4890
Overnight Session Closed 4834 to 4865


Have a good day.


Aliom Pty Limited (ACN 123 876 291 AFSL 323182) does not warrant the accuracy, completeness or correctness of any information herein. In preparing this post, Aliom Pty Limited has not taken into account the investment objectives, financial situation or particular needs of any particular person. Before making an investment decision on the basis of information in this post you should consider whether the information is appropriate in light of your particular investment objectives, financial situation or particular needs. You may wish to consult a licenced advisor or accountant to assist your decision.


----------



## acouch

good morning all
today's road map
have a great day, and good trades
ac


----------



## acouch

evening
spi road map updated and going into sycom..
a fair amount of support around the 4812 area
to be aware of
have a great evening
a:couch


----------



## acouch

good morning
today's road map,which is similar to yesterday's
have a great day, and good trades
ac


----------



## GMS

Good Morning,

The SPI200 March 10 contract rotated higher off the open yesterday extending to trigger a responsive sell tail at 4909 that rejected the distributive break and the market rotated lower back into the established development. An initiating sell tail triggered at 4881 extending the rotation lower through the session to a session low of 4836 and close at 4842.

In the overnight session the market made a distributive break lower that was also rejected with a responsive buy tail at 4816, and the market rotated higher. An initiating buy tail at 4850 extended the rotation higher, to a session high 4884 and close 4879.

The market rejected distributive breaks, either side of the development yesterday, and overnight. The double distribution to the upside in the overnight session indicates a bullish bias in the short term.

Key resistance is at 4881, 4886 and prior development low 4902/05, a break opens potential for a rotation into the 4902 to 4941 development, with key resistance at 4923.

Key support is at 4868, a break opens potential for a rotation to 4852/50 initially then prior development low 4833/29. Key levels follow at 4822, and 4815.

Resistance: 4881, 4886, 4891, 4896, 4902, 4908, 4916, 4923, 4933, 4941, 4958

Support: 4875, 4868, 4863/61, 4855, 4850, 4846, 4840, 4833/29, 4815

Value Area Levels (Source Bloomberg)
Previous SYCOM and Day Session 4852 to 4891
Overnight Session Closed 4827 to 4867


Have a good day.



Aliom Pty Limited (ACN 123 876 291 AFSL 323182) does not warrant the accuracy, completeness or correctness of any information herein. In preparing this post, Aliom Pty Limited has not taken into account the investment objectives, financial situation or particular needs of any particular person. Before making an investment decision on the basis of information in this post you should consider whether the information is appropriate in light of your particular investment objectives, financial situation or particular needs. You may wish to consult a licenced advisor or accountant to assist your decision.


----------



## acouch

good morning all
today's road map
have a great day, and good trades
ac


----------



## GMS

Good Morning,

The SPI200 March 10 contract continued to trade within the development yesterday, rotating to 4892 in the opening phase to then rotate lower inside the development through the course of the session. An initiating sell tail triggered at 4841 late in the session to close at 4837.

The market developed in a 4817 to 4840 range in the first half of the night session. An early morning distribution extended the market lower to a rejecting responsive buy tail at 4781, that rotated the market higher to 4796 initially, then 4816 to close at 4810.

The market has made a new distribution lower overnight, with a temporary low now in place at the responsive sell tail 4781. The double distribution lower overnight indicates a bearish bias.

Key resistance is initially at 4815/16, 4822, prior development low 4829/33 and 4950/52.

Key support is initially at 4796, 4781, prior development low 4762, and 4746.

Resistance: 4815/16, 4822, 4829/33, 4840, 4846, 4850, 4855, 4861/63, 4868
Support: 4804, 4796, 4781, 4771, 4762, 4750, 4746, 4739/37, 4724

Value Area Levels (Source Bloomberg)
Previous SYCOM and Day Session 4835 to 4875
Overnight Session Closed 4794 to 4832

Have a good day.


Aliom Pty Limited (ACN 123 876 291 AFSL 323182) does not warrant the accuracy, completeness or correctness of any information herein. In preparing this post, Aliom Pty Limited has not taken into account the investment objectives, financial situation or particular needs of any particular person. Before making an investment decision on the basis of information in this post you should consider whether the information is appropriate in light of your particular investment objectives, financial situation or particular needs. You may wish to consult a licenced advisor or accountant to assist your decision.


----------



## acouch

good morning all
today's road map have a great day, and good trades
ac


----------



## GMS

Good Morning,

The SPI200 March 10 contract developed yesterday following the prior session rejection of the distribution lower. The session range was 4797 to 4830, closing at 4801.

The market opened to a responsive sell tail at 4807 overnight that rotated the market lower to a new distributive break to 4772 initially and development back inside this range. A mid morning initiating sell tail at 4771 extended the distribution lower to trigger a rejecting responsive buy tail at 4694, that rotated the market higher closing at 4708.

The market resumed the distributive break lower overnight, to reject the break with the rejecting responsive buy tail at 4694, and development has commenced in a 4700 to 4728 range. The double distribution lower through the night session is indicative of a bearish bias.

Key resistance is initially at 4724, then 4746, a break opens potential for a rotation to 4762. Key levels follow at 4771 and 4781

Key support is initially at prior development low 4700. A break at 4694 opens potential for a resumption of the distribution lower, to prior development highs 4688 and 4670.

Resistance: 4711, 4716, 4724, 4737/39, 4746, 4756, 4762, 4771, 4779/84
Support: 4700, 4694, 4688, 4682, 4676, 4670, 4662, 4656, 4652, 4644

Value Area Levels (Source Bloomberg)
Previous SYCOM and Day Session 4798 to 4829
Overnight Session Closed 4717 to 4792

Have a good day.


Aliom Pty Limited (ACN 123 876 291 AFSL 323182) does not warrant the accuracy, completeness or correctness of any information herein. In preparing this post, Aliom Pty Limited has not taken into account the investment objectives, financial situation or particular needs of any particular person. Before making an investment decision on the basis of information in this post you should consider whether the information is appropriate in light of your particular investment objectives, financial situation or particular needs. You may wish to consult a licenced advisor or accountant to assist your decision.


----------



## acouch

a day in the life of the road map
coming into close on sycom
a:couch


----------



## acouch

good morning all
Monday's road map
have a great weekend and take care
ac


----------



## GMS

Good Morning,

The SPI200 March 10 contract opened to a rejecting responsive buy tail on Friday at 4683, rotating the market higher and development in a 4700 to 4724 range. A rejecting responsive sell tail at 4726 rotated the market lower to close 4707.

On Friday night a rejecting responsive sell tail at 4721 rotated the market lower to a new distribution, initially to 4656, and the market developed in a range back to 4694. The market resumed the distribution lower late in the session to close in the distribution phase and imbalance.

Resistance: 4622, 4635, 4644, 4652, 4656, 4662, 4670, 4676, 4682
Support: 4615, 4599, 4588, 4581/79, 4574, 4562, 4556, 4541, 4592, 4512

Value Area Levels (Source Bloomberg)
Previous SYCOM and Day Session 4700 to 4776
Overnight Session Closed 4653 to 4706

Have a good day.


Aliom Pty Limited (ACN 123 876 291 AFSL 323182) does not warrant the accuracy, completeness or correctness of any information herein. In preparing this post, Aliom Pty Limited has not taken into account the investment objectives, financial situation or particular needs of any particular person. Before making an investment decision on the basis of information in this post you should consider whether the information is appropriate in light of your particular investment objectives, financial situation or particular needs. You may wish to consult a licenced advisor or accountant to assist your decision.


----------



## acouch

good afternoon all,

Wednesday's road map,
hope you are enjoying Australia Day
ac


----------



## acouch

good morning all
today's road map
have a great day, and good trades
ac


----------



## acouch

afternoon,
a day in the life of the road map,
sycom to follow
ac


----------



## acouch

morning all,
today's road map
have a great day, and good trades
ac


----------



## GMS

Good Morning,

The SPI200 March 10 contract has continued to distribute lower in the sessions following on from the open of the Tuesday night SYCOM session.

Overnight the distribution lower continued through the session to a late morning rejecting responsive buy tail at 4549, rotating the market higher through the session range triggering a tail into the close at 4599.

Due to the close of the market in the midst of the 4599 tail, I await the reopen for confirmation this tail is either a rejecting responsive sell tail, indicating responsive selling is entering the market or an initiating buy tail indicating a continuation of the move higher.

Key resistance is at 4616, 4652 and 4676 a break opens potential for a rotation to 4700, with key level following at 4722.

Key support is at 4599, 4571/70, 4556 and 4549. A break at 4549 resumes the distribution lower.

Resistance: 4656, 4662, 4670, 4676, 4682, 4688, 4694, 4700, 4711, 4716, 4722
Support: 4652, 4644, 4635, 4622, 4615, 4599, 4588, 4581/79, 4574, 4562, 4556

Value Area Levels (Source Bloomberg)
Previous SYCOM and Day Session 4606 to 4637
Overnight Session Closed 4560 to 4589


Have a good day.

Aliom Pty Limited (ACN 123 876 291 AFSL 323182) does not warrant the accuracy, completeness or correctness of any information herein. In preparing this post, Aliom Pty Limited has not taken into account the investment objectives, financial situation or particular needs of any particular person. Before making an investment decision on the basis of information in this post you should consider whether the information is appropriate in light of your particular investment objectives, financial situation or particular needs. You may wish to consult a licenced advisor or accountant to assist your decision.


----------



## CascadeX

Hello ASF,

I'm just starting to dabble into futures, and notice that the movements in the SPI are HUGE. Like 100 point movements. 
Is this because of liquidity? 
Compared to the S&P ES-mini's which only moves at most 20-30pts in one day ... the SPI moved like 100+ pts yesterday: from 4630 to 4530 ... 

You'd better have your stop losses on for the SPI. Dangerous. 

Can someone comment on the levels of liquidity and risk for the SPI vs. the ES this. I would think that the volatility for the SPI is a lot higher. 

I'm thinking about staying away from the SPI b/c my feeling is that the SPI can be manipulated by the big fish and the large institutional players. 


SPI movement; 27/28th Jan:





S&P500 ES movement: 28th Jan:






Thanks, and cheers.


----------



## Trembling Hand

CascadeX said:


> I'm just starting to dabble into futures, and notice that the movements in the SPI are HUGE. Like 100 point movements.
> Is this because of liquidity?
> Compared to the S&P ES-mini's which only moves at most 20-30pts in one day ... the SPI moved like 100+ pts yesterday: from 4630 to 4530 ...




The range in % and ticks per futures is about the same. You have to remember for every S&P500 point there is 4 ticks. For the SPI its 1 tick per point.




CascadeX said:


> Can someone comment on the levels of liquidity and risk for the SPI vs. the ES this. I would think that the volatility for the SPI is a lot higher.
> 
> I'm thinking about staying away from the SPI b/c my feeling is that the SPI can be manipulated by the big fish and the large institutional players.



 Yesterday the cash hours range for the SPI was 55 ticks the ES (SP500) was 72 ticks. As far as liquidity there are miles apart, by factor of 100 times.

Exactly what would be so bad about this so called "manipulation" that you wish to stay away from?


----------



## skyQuake

CascadeX said:


> Hello ASF,
> 
> I'm just starting to dabble into futures, and notice that the movements in the SPI are HUGE. Like 100 point movements.
> Is this because of liquidity?
> Compared to the S&P ES-mini's which only moves at most 20-30pts in one day ... the SPI moved like 100+ pts yesterday: from 4630 to 4530 ...
> 
> You'd better have your stop losses on for the SPI. Dangerous.
> 
> Can someone comment on the levels of liquidity and risk for the SPI vs. the ES this. I would think that the volatility for the SPI is a lot higher.
> 
> I'm thinking about staying away from the SPI b/c my feeling is that the SPI can be manipulated by the big fish and the large institutional players.
> 
> 
> SPI movement; 27/28th Jan:
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> S&P500 ES movement: 28th Jan:
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> Thanks, and cheers.




illiquidity and spoofers


----------



## CascadeX

Trembling Hand said:


> The range in % and ticks per futures is about the same. You have to remember for every S&P500 point there is 4 ticks. For the SPI its 1 tick per point.
> 
> 
> Yesterday the cash hours range for the SPI was 55 ticks the ES (SP500) was 72 ticks. As far as liquidity there are miles apart, by factor of 100 times.
> 
> Exactly what would be so bad about this so called "manipulation" that you wish to stay away from?




Yeah okay, fair enough. The range for the SPI still moved more though in dollar terms. It moved about 100 points overnight so that's about 2.5K.
Whereas the ES at most moved about 20pts, which is 1K. 

I was monitoring the SPI yesterday and there were 10pt movements in 1-4 second time frames. Liquidity ... 
Scary if you don't have your stop losses.


----------



## Trembling Hand

CascadeX said:


> Yeah okay, fair enough. The range for the SPI still moved more though in dollar terms.






Good luck with it mate


----------



## acouch

good morning all
today's road map
have a great day, and good trades
ac


----------



## ginar

CascadeX said:


> Yeah okay, fair enough. The range for the SPI still moved more though in dollar terms. It moved about 100 points overnight so that's about 2.5K.
> Whereas the ES at most moved about 20pts, which is 1K.
> 
> I was monitoring the SPI yesterday and there were 10pt movements in 1-4 second time frames. Liquidity ...
> Scary if you don't have your stop losses.




If you are looking for an indice future with some good volatility you cannot go past the german fdax . last nights range was over 180 ticks which as a %age is over 3% . some serious coin to be made if you can get on the right side of those ranges .


----------



## GMS

Good Morning,

The SPI200 March 10 contract extended higher on the reopen yesterday, following on from what was confirmed as an initiating buy tail at 4599 in the previous session. The market extended to a session high of 4949, closing at 4646.

Overnight the market rotated lower off the open trading back inside the day session development. An early morning initiating sell tail at 4616 distributed the market lower, extending to a rejecting responsive buy tail at 4546 that rotated the market back to a 4594 high to close 4575. 

The double development to the downside overnight indicates a bearish bias.

Key resistance is at current development high, 4594/99, then 4616 a break here opens potential for a rotation back inside the 4616 to 4652 development with key levels 4635 and 4652. Following on key level at 4676 a break opens potential for a rotation to 4700.

Key support is at 4571/70, and current development low 4556/49. A break at 4549 resumes the distribution lower.

Resistance: 4579/81, 4588, 4599, 4617, 4622, 4635, 4644, 4652, 4656
Support: 4574, 4567, 4562, 4556, 4553, 4546, 4541, 4530, 4512, 4502

Value Area Levels (Source Bloomberg)
Previous SYCOM and Day Session 4562 to 4619
Overnight Session Closed 4569 to 4635

Have a good day.


Aliom Pty Limited (ACN 123 876 291 AFSL 323182) does not warrant the accuracy, completeness or correctness of any information herein. In preparing this post, Aliom Pty Limited has not taken into account the investment objectives, financial situation or particular needs of any particular person. Before making an investment decision on the basis of information in this post you should consider whether the information is appropriate in light of your particular investment objectives, financial situation or particular needs. You may wish to consult a licenced advisor or accountant to assist your decision.


----------



## acouch

spi road map coming into close
ac


----------



## acouch

morning all,
Monday's road map
have a great weekend and take care
ac


----------



## GMS

Good Morning,

The SPI200 March 10 contract initially rotated higher in the opening phase Friday. Responsive selling at 4593 rotated the market lower to 4552 initially, followed by a late initiating sell tail break that distributed the market lower triggering a rejecting responsive buy tail at 4534, and the market closed 4545.

In the Friday night session the market continued the distribution lower in the opening phase to 4524. The market then rotated higher and developed in a range to 4589. A midmorning rotation lower triggered an initiating sell tail at 4518 resuming the distribution lower. A rejecting responsive buy tail triggered at 4492, and the market closed 4499.

The market closed in a distribution phase and imbalanced. The rejecting responsive buy tail at 4492, has put a temporary low in the market.

Key resistance is at prior development low 4512, 4518 a break opens potential for a rotation to 4549 and 4556.

Key support is at 4492, a break opens potential for a continuation of the distribution lower. Key levels follow at 4486/80 and 4455.


Resistance: 4502, 4512, 4518, 4524, 4534, 4541, 4546, 4553, 4556, 4562
Support: 4496, 4492, 4486, 4478, 4463, 4455, 4442, 4435, 4422/20

Value Area Levels (Source Bloomberg)
Previous SYCOM and Day Session 4554 to 4622
Overnight Session Closed 4522 to 4568

Have a good day.

Aliom Pty Limited (ACN 123 876 291 AFSL 323182) does not warrant the accuracy, completeness or correctness of any information herein. In preparing this post, Aliom Pty Limited has not taken into account the investment objectives, financial situation or particular needs of any particular person. Before making an investment decision on the basis of information in this post you should consider whether the information is appropriate in light of your particular investment objectives, financial situation or particular needs. You may wish to consult a licenced advisor or accountant to assist your decision.


----------



## acouch

evening

a day in the life of the road map
going into sycom
ac


----------



## acouch

good morning all
today's road map
have a great day, and good trades
ac


----------



## tradingtiger

XJO and SPI discrepancy has flipped this morning and we are now seeing the SPI
at a 20 point premium for the first time in awhile.

Is this bullish????


----------



## skyQuake

tradingtiger said:


> XJO and SPI discrepancy has flipped this morning and we are now seeing the SPI
> at a 20 point premium for the first time in awhile.
> 
> Is this bullish????




Where are you getting that from?

I've still got SPI at a 30+pt disc to cash - thanks to the upcoming divvies.


----------



## tradingtiger

A Broker Firm in their morning SPI report today Tuesday 2nd feb.

Am I allowed to say the name.?

I have emailed them since your reply and will post thier reply.


----------



## Trembling Hand

tradingtiger said:


> A Broker Firm in their morning SPI report today Tuesday 2nd feb.
> 
> Am I allowed to say the name.?
> 
> I have emailed them since your reply and will post thier reply.




Surely they were talking about overnight moves? first time its opened up significantly in 6 days


----------



## tradingtiger

The Broker reply:
"the statement is taken from the close of the XJO yesterday and compared with the close of the SPI on the SYCOM session."

As it happens, they misred the figures- but that is how they calculate the premium/discount for their morning report.

Very strange way- would you agree?

What is the normal way??


----------



## Trembling Hand

tradingtiger said:


> The Broker reply:
> "the statement is taken from the close of the XJO yesterday and compared with the close of the SPI on the SYCOM session."
> 
> As it happens, they misred the figures- but that is how they calculate the premium/discount for their morning report.
> 
> Very strange way- would you agree?
> 
> What is the normal way??




You can only compare it when the cash is open. Name and shame em'


----------



## acouch

good morning all
rm a tad early, but have to pick up my grandaughter 
have a great day, and good trades
ac


----------



## GMS

Good Morning,

The SPI200 March 10 contract failed to continue the distribution lower on Monday, returning to a development phase Monday SYCOM and the day session yesterday.

In the session overnight, a rejecting responsive buy tail at 4550, rotated the market higher, triggering an initiating buy tail at 4589, that extended the market to a rejecting responsive sell tail at 4630, closing at 4626.

The market has distributed higher overnight and the double development to the upside indicates a bullish bias. The market closed overnight inside the prior 4617 to 4552 devleopment.

Key resistance is at 4635, prior development high 4652, and 4676, a break at 4676 open potential for a rotation to 4700.

Key support is at prior development low 4617, and prior development high 4594/89, a break opens potential for a rotation to 4570 initially and 4549.

Resistance: 4632, 4644, 4652, 4656, 4662, 4670, 4676, 4682, 4688
Support: 4622, 4617, 4599, 4589, 4581/79, 4574, 4569, 4562, 4556

Value Area Levels (Source Bloomberg)
Previous SYCOM and Day Session 4529 to 4588
Overnight Session Closed 4563 to 4611.

Have a good day.

Aliom Pty Limited (ACN 123 876 291 AFSL 323182) does not warrant the accuracy, completeness or correctness of any information herein. In preparing this post, Aliom Pty Limited has not taken into account the investment objectives, financial situation or particular needs of any particular person. Before making an investment decision on the basis of information in this post you should consider whether the information is appropriate in light of your particular investment objectives, financial situation or particular needs. You may wish to consult a licenced advisor or accountant to assist your decision.


----------



## acouch

morning

yesterday's road map coming into close
ac


----------



## acouch

good morning all,
today's road map
have a great day , and good trades
ac


----------



## GMS

Good Morning,

The SPI200 March 10 contract failed to maintain the distribution higher on the reopen yesterday, instead rotating lower and developing. 

In the overnight session a rejecting responsive sell tail at 4618 rotated the market lower to 4594 initially, with rotation back to 4617. Another rotation lower extended the market to session low 4576 to close 4580.

Key resistance is at 4589/94, prior development low 4617, a break opens potential for a rotation into the 4617 to 4652 development with key levels 4635, and 4652.

Key support is at 4570. A break opens potential for a rotation to prior development low 4556/49 initially, 4536 and 4492.

Resistance: 4581, 4589, 4594, 4599, 4617, 4622, 4632, 4644, 4652
Support: 4574, 4570, 4562, 4556, 4549, 4541, 4536, 4530, 4512, 4502

Value Area Levels (Source Bloomberg)
Previous SYCOM and Day Session 4571 to 4613
Overnight Session Closed 4585 to 4609


Have a good day.

Aliom Pty Limited (ACN 123 876 291 AFSL 323182) does not warrant the accuracy, completeness or correctness of any information herein. In preparing this post, Aliom Pty Limited has not taken into account the investment objectives, financial situation or particular needs of any particular person. Before making an investment decision on the basis of information in this post you should consider whether the information is appropriate in light of your particular investment objectives, financial situation or particular needs. You may wish to consult a licenced advisor or accountant to assist your decision.


----------



## CascadeX

Hi all,

Was wondering if anyone trades the KOSPI200?? 

Why is it that the kospi trades with more volume than the Australian index futures? I mean ... Australia is a larger market than Korea ... but the kospi has like 5-10x more volume of contracts traded.


----------



## tradingtiger

Trembling Hand said:


> You can only compare it when the cash is open. Name and shame em'




Kinetic


----------



## Broadway

CascadeX said:


> Hi all,
> 
> Was wondering if anyone trades the KOSPI200??
> 
> Why is it that the kospi trades with more volume than the Australian index futures? I mean ... Australia is a larger market than Korea ... but the kospi has like 5-10x more volume of contracts traded.




I dont think theres a relationship between the capital size of a stock market and the volume traded on its futures. Can you think of a reason as to why there should be? Futures can be traded by anyone around the world with a pc. Volume traded on futures isnt supplied by just local traders from that country.

Anyway, the way I look at it, is that each major region, Asia, Europe, USA, needs a futures instrument to trade that supplies large liquidity for the rich players. Asia is the K200, Europe is the ESTX50 and USA is the ES.
I guess at some stage the Kospi was picked to be that instrument for asia. Im not sure of the history of the kospi, I wonder if anyone knows on these forums.


----------



## skc

Broadway said:


> I dont think theres a relationship between the capital size of a stock market and the volume traded on its futures. *Can you think of a reason as to why there should be?* Futures can be traded by anyone around the world with a pc. Volume traded on futures isnt supplied by just local traders from that country.
> 
> Anyway, the way I look at it, is that each major region, Asia, Europe, USA, needs a futures instrument to trade that supplies large liquidity for the rich players. Asia is the K200, Europe is the ESTX50 and USA is the ES.
> I guess at some stage the Kospi was picked to be that instrument for asia. Im not sure of the history of the kospi, I wonder if anyone knows on these forums.




Just a possible reason: The larger the capital market, the more need for institutional players to use futures for various strategies like hedging, quick dumping etc?


----------



## Joolean

Was playing around with spi data in Excel and put the following together. Thought others might find it interesting though probably not overly useful.

It shows the make up of trades for the spi this week as a percentage of daily volume along with the raw trade sizes.
E.g. Monday had 10399 single contract trades which made up 32% of that days volume. Trades with 5 contracts or less make up about 70% of the days volume.

Not an awful lot of variation between days but it's a very small sample size. Of more use would be where the larger trades occur on a chart, which I'm attempting to plot, and where they occur within the context of market action.

Volumes for those days were:
Mon: 33k
Tues: 33k
Wed: 26k
Thurs: 23k

Jules.


----------



## acouch

good morning all
today's road map
have a great day, and good trades

keep a beady eye om 4384 for strong support today/sycom/etc

ac


----------



## GMS

Good Morning,

The SPI200 March 10 contract continued to trade in the established development through the day session yesterday in a 4559 to 4596 range.

A rejecting responsive sell tail at 4589 in the opening phase overnight rotated the market lower, to an initiating sell tail at 4575 that extended the market to 4548 initially, with some development following. Another initiating sell tail at 4533, extended the market to 4460, where development followed into the closing phase. A tail commenced in the close of the session at 4459.

The commencement of the tail on the close is yet to indicate a rejecting responsive buy tail or commencement of an initiating sell, and await the reopen for indication.

The market has closed at a key level with several development highs and lows at 4455 to 4463 over a period 26/8/09 to 1/9/09.
Key resistance is at 4463 a break opens potential for a rotation to 4492.

Key support is at 4455, a break opens potential for a rotation to 4442 initially, 4422 and 4406.

Resistance: 4463, 4478, 4486, 4492, 4496, 4502, 4512, 4518, 4524, 4534
Support: 4455, 4442, 4435, 4422/20, 4406, 4400, 4396, 4386, 4379, 4369

Value Area Levels (Source Bloomberg)
Previous SYCOM and Day Session 4574 to 4604
Overnight Session Closed 4471 to 4557


Have a good day,

Aliom Pty Limited (ACN 123 876 291 AFSL 323182) does not warrant the accuracy, completeness or correctness of any information herein. In preparing this post, Aliom Pty Limited has not taken into account the investment objectives, financial situation or particular needs of any particular person. Before making an investment decision on the basis of information in this post you should consider whether the information is appropriate in light of your particular investment objectives, financial situation or particular needs. You may wish to consult a licenced advisor or accountant to assist your decision.


----------



## acouch

spi road map eod..sycom to follow

have a great evening 

a:couch


----------



## acouch

good morning all
Monday's road map
have a great weekend and take care
ac


----------



## GMS

Good Morning,

The SPI200 March 10 contract opened higher Friday. Immediately the market rotated lower off the open back inside the development that commenced in the prior session, to a session low 4453 and rotation in the development through to the close at 4474.

In the Friday night session the market commenced a new distributive break lower to 4421 initially and rotation back to 4470 with development in this range. A late session break extended the distribution to a rejecting responsive buy tail at 4396, and the market rotated higher to close 4464.

The market has returned to a development phase following the distributive break in the Friday night SYCOM session.

Key resistance is at 4473 a break opens potential for a rotation to 4496. A break at 4502 opens potential for a rotation to 4511.

Key support is at 4452, a break opens potential for a rotation to 4421. Key level follows at 4396, a break opens potential for a continuation of the distribution lower.

Resistance: 4473, 4478, 4482, 4488, 4492, 4496, 4502, 4512, 4518, 4524, 4534
Support: 4455, 4442, 4435, 4421, 4406, 4400, 4396, 4386, 4379, 4369, 4359, 4342/40

Value Area Levels (Source Bloomberg)
Previous SYCOM and Day Session 4457 to 4537
Overnight Session Closed 4422 to 4461

Have a good day.


Aliom Pty Limited (ACN 123 876 291 AFSL 323182) does not warrant the accuracy, completeness or correctness of any information herein. In preparing this post, Aliom Pty Limited has not taken into account the investment objectives, financial situation or particular needs of any particular person. Before making an investment decision on the basis of information in this post you should consider whether the information is appropriate in light of your particular investment objectives, financial situation or particular needs. You may wish to consult a licenced advisor or accountant to assist your decision.


----------



## acouch

evening all
never ceases to amaze me 
a:couch


----------



## acouch

morning all
today's road map
have a great day and good trades
ac


----------



## GMS

Good Morning,


The SPI200 March 10 contract extended higher in the opening phase yesterday and continued to trade within the establishing development. A midsession rejecting responsive sell tail at 4514 rotated the market lower to close 4474.

In the overnight session, trading continued within the development in a 4450 to 4492 range. A tail has commenced in the close at 4448, which is yet to indicate an initiating sell lower or a rejecting responsive buy tail.

The market continued to trade within the broad development yesterday and overnight. 

Key resistance is at 4448/52, 4473, a break at 4473 opens potential for a rotation to 4496. A break at 4502 opens potential for a rotation to 4511.

Key support is at 4421. Key level follows at 4396, a break opens potential for a continuation of the distribution lower.

Resistance: 4448/52, 4467, 4473, 4478, 4482, 4488, 4492, 4496, 4502, 4512, 4518
Support: 4442, 4435, 4421, 4406, 4400, 4396, 4386, 4379, 4369, 4359, 4342/40

Value Area Levels (Source Bloomberg)
Previous SYCOM and Day Session 4427 to 4485
Overnight Session Closed 4458 to 4481

Have a good day,



Aliom Pty Limited (ACN 123 876 291 AFSL 323182) does not warrant the accuracy, completeness or correctness of any information herein. In preparing this post, Aliom Pty Limited has not taken into account the investment objectives, financial situation or particular needs of any particular person. Before making an investment decision on the basis of information in this post you should consider whether the information is appropriate in light of your particular investment objectives, financial situation or particular needs. You may wish to consult a licenced advisor or accountant to assist your decision.


----------



## acouch

market not closed ,but have to go out..
today's road map
to be aware of 4612..very strong resistance there
ac


----------



## GMS

Good Morning,

The SPI200 March 10 contract continued to trade within the development yesterday, triggering a midsession rejecting responsive buy tail at 4435, that rotated the market higher through to the close at 4473.

In the overnight session, the extension higher continued to a distributive break out of the establishing development to a rejecting responsive sell tail at 4545, and closing 4514.

The distribution higher overnight indicates a bullish bias, although the rejecting sell tail at 4545, indicates a temporary high in place, with the market returning to a development phase into the close.

Key resistance is at 4518, a break opens potential for a rotation to 4549/52. Key levels follow at 4570 and 4589/94

Initial support is at 4512. Key support is at 4502 and 4496. A break at 4496 opens potential for a rotation to 4473.

Resistance: 4518, 4524, 4534, 4541, 4549, 4553, 4556, 4562, 4570
Support: 4512, 4502, 4496, 4492, 4486, 4478, 4473, 4467, 4463, 4455

Value Area Levels (Source Bloomberg)
Previous SYCOM and Day Session 4450 to 4477
Overnight Session Closed 4487 to 4523

Have a good day,


Aliom Pty Limited (ACN 123 876 291 AFSL 323182) does not warrant the accuracy, completeness or correctness of any information herein. In preparing this post, Aliom Pty Limited has not taken into account the investment objectives, financial situation or particular needs of any particular person. Before making an investment decision on the basis of information in this post you should consider whether the information is appropriate in light of your particular investment objectives, financial situation or particular needs. You may wish to consult a licenced advisor or accountant to assist your decision.


----------



## Joolean

Very nice lis today ac.
Perfect support come resistance.


----------



## acouch

hi joolean,
yes the lis is worth its weight in gold 
Morning all
today's road map
have a great day, and good trades
ac


----------



## GMS

Good Morning,

The SPI200 March 10 contract continued trade within the establishing development yesterday. A midsession initiating sell tail at 4507 extended the range to a rejecting responsive buy tail at 4470, to close the session at 4481.

In the overnight session, development continued, with a rejecting responsive sell tail at 4512 rotating the market lower. A distributive break triggered a rejecting responsive buy tail at 4466 and the market rotated back within the development to close 4495.

Key resistance is at 4502 a break opens potential for a rotation to 4512. Key resistance follow at 4518, a break opens potential for a rotation to 4549/52, with key level 4535.

Initial support is at 4486, with key support at 4473 and 4467. A break at 4467 opens potential for a resumption of the distributive break to 4434.

Resistance: 4496, 4502, 4507, 4512, 4518, 4524, 4534, 4541, 4546, 4553, 4556

Support: 4492, 4486, 4478, 4473, 4467, 4463, 4455, 4449, 4442, 4435, 4422/20

Value Area Levels (Source Bloomberg)
Previous SYCOM and Day Session 4485 to 4524
Overnight Session Closed 4471 to 4502

Have a good day.




Aliom Pty Limited (ACN 123 876 291 AFSL 323182) does not warrant the accuracy, completeness or correctness of any information herein. In preparing this post, Aliom Pty Limited has not taken into account the investment objectives, financial situation or particular needs of any particular person. Before making an investment decision on the basis of information in this post you should consider whether the information is appropriate in light of your particular investment objectives, financial situation or particular needs. You may wish to consult a licenced advisor or accountant to assist your decision.


----------



## acouch

morning,

a day in the life of the road map

a:couch


----------



## acouch

good morning all
today's road map
have a great day, and good trades
ac


----------



## GMS

Good Morning,

The SPI200 March 10 contract continued to trade within the establishing development yesterday, in a session range 4476 to 4534 to close 4522.

In the overnight session the market rotated lower to a rejecting responsive buy tail at 4486 that rotated the market higher to 4554 initially. A distributive break out of the development high on the close has commenced a new tail. 
The focus is now on the reopen to establish if the tail is rejecting responsive selling or initiation of a buy tail higher.

Key resistance is at 4570, prior development high 4589/94, and 4616. A break at 4616, open potential for a rotation back inside the 4616 to 4652 development.

Key support is at 4552, 4534 and 4518. A break at 4518 opens potential for a rotation to 4507 initially, then 4492.

Resistance: 4562, 4570, 4574, 4581, 4589, 4594, 4599, 4617, 4622, 4632
Support: 4556, 4553, 4546, 4541, 4534, 4524, 4518, 4512, 4507, 4502, 4496, 4492

Value Area Levels (Source Bloomberg)
Previous SYCOM and Day Session 4476 to 4514
Overnight Session Closed 4503 to 4540

Have a good day.

Aliom Pty Limited (ACN 123 876 291 AFSL 323182) does not warrant the accuracy, completeness or correctness of any information herein. In preparing this post, Aliom Pty Limited has not taken into account the investment objectives, financial situation or particular needs of any particular person. Before making an investment decision on the basis of information in this post you should consider whether the information is appropriate in light of your particular investment objectives, financial situation or particular needs. You may wish to consult a licenced advisor or accountant to assist your decision.


----------



## acouch

Morning all,

Monday's road map
have a great weekend and take care
ac


----------



## acouch

morning all
today's road map
have a great day, and good trades
ac


----------



## GMS

Good Morning,

The SPI200 March 10 contract continued to trade within the establishing development yesterday. A rejecting responsive sell tail at 4539 midsession, capped the upside and the market closed 4527.

In the shortened overnight session another rejecting responsive sell tail at 4531 rotated the market lower with trading continuing in the development through the session to close 4527.

The market continues to build price efficiency in the current development, increasing the likelihood of a distributive break off the point of control level which is currently 4522.

Key resistance is at 4534, 4552, 4570, and prior development high 4589/94.

Key support is at current point of control 4522, 4512, 4496/92. A break at 4496/92 opens potential for a rotation to 4473/67 and further 4434.

Resistance: 4534, 4541, 4546, 4553, 4556, 4562, 4570, 4574, 4581
Support: 4522, 4512, 4507, 4502, 4496, 4492, 4486, 4478, 4473, 4467


Value Area Levels (Source Bloomberg)
Previous SYCOM and Day Session 4491 to 4527
Overnight Session Closed 4518 to 4527

Have a good day.



Aliom Pty Limited (ACN 123 876 291 AFSL 323182) does not warrant the accuracy, completeness or correctness of any information herein. In preparing this post, Aliom Pty Limited has not taken into account the investment objectives, financial situation or particular needs of any particular person. Before making an investment decision on the basis of information in this post you should consider whether the information is appropriate in light of your particular investment objectives, financial situation or particular needs. You may wish to consult a licenced advisor or accountant to assist your decision.


----------



## acouch

morning all
today's road map
have a great day, and good trades
ac


http://www.animalsaustralia.org/take_action/petitions/free-saigon/5#tally


----------



## GMS

Good Morning,

The SPI200 March 10 contract made a distributive break higher in the opening phase yesterday, commencing development in a 4556 to 4575 range until a late session rotation lower to close 4535.

In the overnight session the market rotated higher again initially to 4572 and rotation, followed by an initiating buy tail at 4588 that has extended the distribution to close 4596.

The market has closed in the midst of the initiating buy tail and distributing higher. 

Key resistance is at 4616, a break opens potential for a rotation into the previous 4616 to 4652 development with key levels at 4635 and 4648. 

Key support is at 4589, a break opens potential for a rotation to 4573, and key levels follow at 4652 and 4534.

Resistance: 4599, 4607, 4617, 4622, 4632, 4644, 4652, 4656, 4662
Support: 4594/89, 4581, 4573, 4568, 4562, 4556, 4553, 4546, 4541


Value Area Levels (Source Bloomberg)
Previous SYCOM and Day Session 4526 to 4563
Overnight Session Closed 4551 to 4579

Have a good day.



Aliom Pty Limited (ACN 123 876 291 AFSL 323182) does not warrant the accuracy, completeness or correctness of any information herein. In preparing this post, Aliom Pty Limited has not taken into account the investment objectives, financial situation or particular needs of any particular person. Before making an investment decision on the basis of information in this post you should consider whether the information is appropriate in light of your particular investment objectives, financial situation or particular needs. You may wish to consult a licenced advisor or accountant to assist your decision.


----------



## acouch

morning all
today's road map
have a great day, and good trades
ac


----------



## GMS

Good Morning,

The SPI200 March 10 contract continued the distribution higher yesterday triggering an initiating buy tail at 4618, extending the market to a late session rejecting responsive sell tail at 4646 to close 4638.

In the overnight session a responsive buy tail at 4634, rotated the market higher to 4671 midsession. The market rotated off the 4671 session high and commenced development and price acceptance into the close.

The market has returned to a development phase (price acceptance) this morning following the distributive break higher.

Key resistance is at 4652, and 4676, a break at 4676 opens potential for a rotation to 4700.

Key support is at 4646, a break opens potential for a rotation to 4616, with key level at 4632. Key support follows at 4694/89.

Resistance: 4652, 4660, 4670, 4676, 4682, 4688, 4694, 4700, 4711, 4716
Support: 4646/44, 4632, 4622, 4616, 4607, 4599, 4594, 4589, 4881


Value Area Levels (Source Bloomberg)
Previous SYCOM and Day Session 4556 to 4621
Overnight Session Closed 4644 to 4662


Have a good day.

Aliom Pty Limited (ACN 123 876 291 AFSL 323182) does not warrant the accuracy, completeness or correctness of any information herein. In preparing this post, Aliom Pty Limited has not taken into account the investment objectives, financial situation or particular needs of any particular person. Before making an investment decision on the basis of information in this post you should consider whether the information is appropriate in light of your particular investment objectives, financial situation or particular needs. You may wish to consult a licenced advisor or accountant to assist your decision.


----------



## acouch

evening,
updated spi road map

ac


----------



## acouch

good morning all
toady's road map
have a great day, and good trades
ac


----------



## acouch

morning all

Monday's road map similar to yesterdays
have a great weekend and take care
ac


----------



## acouch

good morning all
today's road map
have a great day, and good trades
ac


----------



## GMS

Good Morning,

The SPI200 March 10 contract made a distributive break higher in the opening phase yesterday, extending midsession to 4698, and development commenced in a 4684 to 4698 range. An initiating buy tail commenced in the closing phase at 4700.

The market continued the extension higher in the opening phase of the night session to 4716 and rotated lower. A rejecting responsive buy tail at the prior session point of control 4690, rotated the market higher to a rejecting responsive sell tail at 4717, to close 4699.

The market broke to a distribution higher yesterday and overnight. The market has returned to a development phase overnight accepting prices in the new range. The rejecting responsive sell tail at 4717 has temporarily capped the distributive break higher.

Key resistance is at 4700, and 4717. A break at 4717 opens potential for a resumption of the distributive break higher.

Key support is at 4690, a break opens potential for a rotation to 4682/76. 

Resistance: 4700, 4711, 4716, 4722, 4737/39, 4746, 4756, 4762, 4771
Support: 4694, 4688, 4682, 4676, 4670, 4660, 4652, 4646/44, 4634


Value Area Levels (Source Bloomberg)
Previous SYCOM and Day Session 4620 to 4684
Overnight Session Closed 4697 to 4712

Have a good day.


Aliom Pty Limited (ACN 123 876 291 AFSL 323182) does not warrant the accuracy, completeness or correctness of any information herein. In preparing this post, Aliom Pty Limited has not taken into account the investment objectives, financial situation or particular needs of any particular person. Before making an investment decision on the basis of information in this post you should consider whether the information is appropriate in light of your particular investment objectives, financial situation or particular needs. You may wish to consult a licenced advisor or accountant to assist your decision.


----------



## acouch

afternoon
a day in the life of the spi

ac


----------



## acouch

good morning all
today's road map
have a great day, and good trades
ac


----------



## acouch

good morning all
today's road map
have a great day, and good trades
ac


----------



## GMS

Good Morning,


The SPI200 March 10 contract rotated lower off the opening phase yesterday, extending lower into the development set on the 18/2, 19/2 and 22/2. 

In the overnight session the market continued the rotation lower to a rejecting responsive buy tail at 4622 that rotated the market higher extending to a responsive sell tail at 4669, to close 4664.

The market has returned to a development phase, following the distribution lower yesterday and overnight.

Key resistance is at 4676, a break opens potential for a rotation to 4700. Key resistance follows at 4717 and 4737/39.

Key support is at 4656/52, a break opens potential for a rotation to 4616, with key level at 4640/37, and 4622.

Resistance: 4670, 4676, 4682, 4688, 4694, 4700, 4711, 4717, 4722, 4737/39
Support: 4660, 4656, 4652, 4646, 4640/37, 4634, 4622, 4616, 4607, 4599, 4594/89


Value Area Levels (Source Bloomberg)
Previous SYCOM and Day Session 4647 to 4710
Overnight Session Closed 4631 to 4657

Have a good day.


Aliom Pty Limited (ACN 123 876 291 AFSL 323182) does not warrant the accuracy, completeness or correctness of any information herein. In preparing this post, Aliom Pty Limited has not taken into account the investment objectives, financial situation or particular needs of any particular person. Before making an investment decision on the basis of information in this post you should consider whether the information is appropriate in light of your particular investment objectives, financial situation or particular needs. You may wish to consult a licenced advisor or accountant to assist your decision.


----------



## acouch

afternoon,
a day in the life of the spi
have a great evening
ac


----------



## acouch

good morning all
today's road map
have a great day, and good trades
ac


----------



## acouch

good morning all
Monday's road map
have a great weekend and take care
ac


----------



## GMS

Good Morning,

The SPI200 March 10 contract returned to a development phase Friday night following distributions lower in the Thursday night and Friday session.

On Friday night the market initially traded higher to a responsive sell tail at 4633. The market rotated lower off this sell tail through the session range to an early morning rejecting responsive buy tail at 4597, and closing at 4619.

Key resistance is at the current point of control 4622. A break opens potential for a rotation to 4633 initially, and following on 4652 and 4676.

Key support is at 4599, a break opens potential for a rotation to 4573 initially, and following on 4557, and 4534.

Resistance: 4622, 4637, 4646, 4652, 4656, 4660, 4670, 4676, 4682, 4688
Support: 4616, 4607, 4599, 4594/89, 4581, 4573, 4568, 4562, 4557, 4553


Value Area Levels (Source Bloomberg)
Previous SYCOM and Day Session 4549 to 4606
Overnight Session Closed 4607 to 4627


Have a good day.





Aliom Pty Limited (ACN 123 876 291 AFSL 323182) does not warrant the accuracy, completeness or correctness of any information herein. In preparing this post, Aliom Pty Limited has not taken into account the investment objectives, financial situation or particular needs of any particular person. Before making an investment decision on the basis of information in this post you should consider whether the information is appropriate in light of your particular investment objectives, financial situation or particular needs. You may wish to consult a licenced advisor or accountant to assist your decision.


----------



## Kryzz

Could anyone confirm if this is an accurate chart of the SPI futures contract  please (as of 3pm 1st March, 5min chart)


Thanks!


----------



## Trembling Hand

Kryzz said:


> Could anyone confirm if this is an accurate chart of the SPI futures contract  please (as of 3pm 1st March, 5min chart)
> 
> 
> Thanks!




Looks about right for today. Though it seems to be missing some overnight data from 12:00 am sat till 8;00 am close


----------



## acouch

good morning all
today's road map
have a great day, and good trades
ac


----------



## acouch

morning all
road map a little early
have a great day, and good trades
ac


----------



## acouch

good morning all
today's road map
have a great day, and good trades
ac


----------



## acouch

morning

a day in the life of the spi road map coming into close

ac


----------



## acouch

good morning all
today's road map
have a great day, and good trades
ac


----------



## GMS

Good Morning,

The SPI200 March 10 contract rotated lower in the opening phase yesterday to trade back inside the prior session development. Trading continued in a development phase through the reminder of the session.

In the overnight session the market rotated higher off a rejecting responsive buy tail at 3736, to initially develop in a 4737 to 4750 range. Trading continued higher through the session to a rejecting responsive sell tail at 4778, and development in a range back to 4755, closing 4769.

The double development to the upside overnight indicates a bullish bias in the market.

Key resistance is at 4780. A break at 4790 resumes the distribution higher. Key levels follow at 4815, 4822 and prior development low 4829/33.

Key support is at 4756/50, a break opens potential for a rotation to 4739/37. Key support follows at 4727. A break at 4727 opens potential for a rotation to key level 4700. 

Resistance: 4771, 4779/84, 4794, 4804, 4815, 4822, 4829/33, 4840
Support: 4762, 4756, 4750, 4746, 4739/37, 4730, 4722, 4711, 4704, 4700


Value Area Levels (Source Bloomberg)
Previous SYCOM and Day Session 4738 to 4770
Overnight Session Closed 4748 to 4770.

Have a good day.



Aliom Pty Limited (ACN 123 876 291 AFSL 323182) does not warrant the accuracy, completeness or correctness of any information herein. In preparing this post, Aliom Pty Limited has not taken into account the investment objectives, financial situation or particular needs of any particular person. Before making an investment decision on the basis of information in this post you should consider whether the information is appropriate in light of your particular investment objectives, financial situation or particular needs. You may wish to consult a licenced advisor or accountant to assist your decision.


----------



## acouch

morning,
update of yesterday's rm
coming into close
ac


----------



## acouch

morning all
Monday's road map
have a great weekend and take care
ac


----------



## GMS

Good Morning,

The SPI200 March 10 contract rotated higher on Friday off a rejecting responsive buy tail at 4760 in the opening phase, extending to a rejecting responsive sell tail at 4785 and developing in a 4760 to 4784 range through the session.

On Friday night development continued initially. An initiating buy tail at 4789 opened the market to a distributive break out of the development. The market extended higher through the morning session to a rejecting responsive sell tail at 4846, closing 4840.

The market is in a distributive phase, and imbalance. The rejecting responsive sell tail at 4846 indicates the market rejected the advance higher, although until the market returns to a development phase and a period of price acceptance, the potential remains for further imbalance, including a continuation of the distribution higher.

Key resistance is at 4846, 4850/52, previous development high 4878, 4886 and previous development low 4902/05.

Key support is at 4835, a break opens potential for a rotation to 4815 initially and 4794.

Resistance: 4846, 4850, 4855, 4861/63, 4868, 4873, 4881, 4886, 4891
Support: 4840, 4835, 4829, 4822, 4815, 4804, 4794, 4784, 4779, 4771


Value Area Levels (Source Bloomberg)
Previous SYCOM and Day Session 4752 to 4776
Overnight Session Closed 4786 to 4830.

Have a good day.



Aliom Pty Limited (ACN 123 876 291 AFSL 323182) does not warrant the accuracy, completeness or correctness of any information herein. In preparing this post, Aliom Pty Limited has not taken into account the investment objectives, financial situation or particular needs of any particular person. Before making an investment decision on the basis of information in this post you should consider whether the information is appropriate in light of your particular investment objectives, financial situation or particular needs. You may wish to consult a licenced advisor or accountant to assist your decision.


----------



## acouch

good morning all
today's road map
have a great day, and good trades
ac


----------



## acouch

morning all
today's road map
have a great day, and good trades
ac


----------



## acouch

good morning all
today's road map
have a great day, and good trades
ac


----------



## GMS

Good Morning,

The SPI200 March 10 contract continued to rotate in the establishing development yesterday. A rejecting responsive sell tail at 4839 in the opening phase and midsession rejecting responsive buy tail at 4806, rotated the market back inside the development.

The market initially rotated lower to a rejecting responsive buy tail at 4808 in the overnight market, where the market set session lows and rotated higher within the development. A midmorning distribution through the upside of the development was short lived and responsive selling rotated the market back inside the development.

The market remains in a development phase, although the lack of a rejecting responsive sell tail indicates potential remains for another distributive break through the upside of the development.

Key resistance is at 4850/52. A break at 4857 opens potential for a distributive break higher. Key levels follow at 4868and 4886.

Key support is at 4830, 4812/08, and 4797/94. A break opens potential for a rotation to 4784 initially and 4775.

Resistance: 4835, 4840, 4846, 4850, 4855, 4861/63, 4868, 4873, 4881, 4886
Support: 4835, 4830, 4822, 4812, 4804, 4794, 4784, 4779, 4771, 4762, 4756, 4750


Value Area Levels (Source Bloomberg)
Previous SYCOM and Day Session 44808 to 4836
Overnight Session Closed 4820 to 4845

Have a good day.



Aliom Pty Limited (ACN 123 876 291 AFSL 323182) does not warrant the accuracy, completeness or correctness of any information herein. In preparing this post, Aliom Pty Limited has not taken into account the investment objectives, financial situation or particular needs of any particular person. Before making an investment decision on the basis of information in this post you should consider whether the information is appropriate in light of your particular investment objectives, financial situation or particular needs. You may wish to consult a licenced advisor or accountant to assist your decision.


----------



## acouch

good morning all
today's road map
have a great day, and good trades
ac


----------



## acouch

morning all
Monday's road map
have a great weekend and take care
ac


----------



## RazzaDazzla

hey acouch,

I've been combing through this extensive thread to try and find some info about this roadmap that you kindly post each day.

What kind of system/technique is it using to plot the zones? Can you point me to any posts or any other information so I can get a better idea of what it does and how it does it?

Thanks.


----------



## acouch

RazzaDazzla said:


> hey acouch,
> 
> I've been combing through this extensive thread to try and find some info about this roadmap that you kindly post each day.
> 
> What kind of system/technique is it using to plot the zones? Can you point me to any posts or any other information so I can get a better idea of what it does and how it does it?
> 
> Thanks.





there is no system, the road map takes past data and projects it forward.
i use Medianlines to do this.

and it is very successful.
have a great day
ac


----------



## RazzaDazzla

Thanks acouch, I'll have to have a red into it.

From the looks of it, the highlighted areas are probable targets that will be met during the course of the day.

I'll follow along and see how it goes. I like the charts you post that after each day that show how the SPI traded vs the roadmap, interesting. I'd like to see more of these if you have the time.


----------



## acouch

RazzaDazzla said:


> Thanks acouch, I'll have to have a red into it.
> 
> From the looks of it, the highlighted areas are probable targets that will be met during the course of the day.
> 
> I'll follow along and see how it goes. I like the charts you post that after each day that show how the SPI traded vs the roadmap, interesting. I'd like to see more of these if you have the time.




morning razza dazzla

when i have the time i post the charts as the day goes along, but what i would suggest for you to do, so you can watch the progress of the chart, is to set up a 10min 24 hr chart, with the nos applied, this way you can watch it also and see the end result,for the days i don't get around to posting a updated chart.
i am glad you are finding the road map useful to you.
take care out there
a:couch


----------



## acouch

afternoon all
eod rm to checkout

sycom to come
ac


----------



## acouch

morning all
today's road map
have a great day, and good trades
ac


----------



## GMS

Good Morning,

The SPI200 March 10 contract initially traded within the development yesterday. A midsession initiating sell tail at 4822 extended the market lower to a distributive break late in the session to a session low 4782, and closing 4790.

The market rotated lower off a rejecting responsive sell tail at 4792, early in the night session, and development commenced in a range to 4776. A late session resumption of the distributive break extended the market to 4759, where the market rotated higher to close 4786.

The market has made a distributive break lower and commenced development and price acceptance in a new range. The lack of a rejecting responsive buy tail at the low indicates potential for a retest of the lows, although the bias is currently towards the upside.

Key resistance is at 4794, 4812 and the previous point of control 4822

Key support is at 4784 and 4775. 

Resistance: 4794, 4804, 4812, 4822, 4830, 4835, 4840, 4846, 4850, 4855
Support: 4782, 4776, 4771, 4762, 4756, 4750, 4746, 4739/37, 4730, 4722



Value Area Levels (Source Bloomberg)
Previous SYCOM and Day Session 4801 to 4833
Overnight Session Closed 4769 to 4787.


Have a good day.



Aliom Pty Limited (ACN 123 876 291 AFSL 323182) does not warrant the accuracy, completeness or correctness of any information herein. In preparing this post, Aliom Pty Limited has not taken into account the investment objectives, financial situation or particular needs of any particular person. Before making an investment decision on the basis of information in this post you should consider whether the information is appropriate in light of your particular investment objectives, financial situation or particular needs. You may wish to consult a licenced advisor or accountant to assist your decision.


----------



## acouch

good morning all
today's road map
have a great day, and good trades
ac


----------



## Knoxy

Acouch,

Can obviously only speak for myself, but the theme here is 'trading the spi' and I can't see any value in posting a roadmap that doesn't relate to this. The forum should discuss trading methods and trades, rather than be filled with an indicator that makes no reference to any trading method.

If others gain benefit from using this with their method, great, suggest you post the indicator and let them get on with it.

But I've seen dozens of your roadmaps and find you consistently push off suggestions to explain what use it is. Please point to an explanation or explain now before posting the next map. May be a failing in me, but I'm not on your wavelength. 

If others are making great money using this and I'm 'talking through a hole in my head' please take a minute to explain. Forums are supposed to be about mutual benefit, this is one I just find unhelpful.


----------



## acouch

Knoxy said:


> Acouch,
> 
> Can obviously only speak for myself, but the theme here is 'trading the spi' and I can't see any value in posting a roadmap that doesn't relate to this. The forum should discuss trading methods and trades, rather than be filled with an indicator that makes no reference to any trading method.
> 
> If others gain benefit from using this with their method, great, suggest you post the indicator and let them get on with it.
> 
> But I've seen dozens of your roadmaps and find you consistently push off suggestions to explain what use it is. Please point to an explanation or explain now before posting the next map. May be a failing in me, but I'm not on your wavelength.
> If others are making great money using this and I'm 'talking through a hole in my head' please take a minute to explain. Forums are supposed to be about mutual benefit, this is one I just find unhelpful.





i have explained the road map numerous times..and i am not a teacher.
take the effort and seek the answers, i am not here to spoon feed.
but if the road map isn't any benefit to others i am quite happy to stop posting it..it takes a lot of my time, and you might be surprised, i do not get paid to do it either.

i look forward to seeing what you will contribute to this thread. 
take care out there , it can be a nasty place
ac


----------



## nat

Knoxy ,acouch has explained it heaps of times over a year or two ,get a chart and put the levels on and see how price reacts to these levels during the coarse of the day .If really serious about learning to trade the spi a couple of hours going through this thread should be easy to do .

In this game nothing comes easy and even if she explained point by point it might not suit your style of trading. 

Acouch still finding your charts most helpful as im sure there is many others finding that to ,thanx for your efforts in putting them up each day.

Nathan


----------



## professor_frink

Knoxy said:


> Acouch,
> 
> Can obviously only speak for myself, but the theme here is 'trading the spi' and I can't see any value in posting a roadmap that doesn't relate to this. The forum should discuss trading methods and trades, rather than be filled with an indicator that makes no reference to any trading method.
> 
> If others gain benefit from using this with their method, great, suggest you post the indicator and let them get on with it.
> 
> But I've seen dozens of your roadmaps and find you consistently push off suggestions to explain what use it is. Please point to an explanation or explain now before posting the next map. May be a failing in me, but I'm not on your wavelength.
> 
> If others are making great money using this and I'm 'talking through a hole in my head' please take a minute to explain. Forums are supposed to be about mutual benefit, this is one I just find unhelpful.




Knoxy,

2 minutes looking through the thread and I came up with the following posts that should give you a decent understanding of how these charts are constructed. Click on the arrow after acouch's name in the quotes below and it'll take you to the posts to see the charts that go with the posts.

The theory is that these levels will act as support and resistance during the day. The solid red line in the middle of the chart that ac has shown this morning is what she refers to as the line in the sand, and it can be used as a guide to be bullish above/bearish below.





acouch said:


> morning all,
> 
> this chart is very messy, but i just wanted to show you what  else you can do with the ML's.
> 
> as on all previous charts the ML's have been within the dominate yellow ML.
> 
> what i have done here is to project the red ML on previous chart forward, i have marked in aqua where price meet some resistance on the way up, you can of course mark every x of red/yellow
> 
> will put a new set on the next chart from the low of 6242..
> 
> great trades
> ac






acouch said:


> morning wayne,
> 
> DR. Andrews ML = Medianline Line with newton's action/reaction theory..
> 
> a site below for you to have a look at..and anyone else that is interested in the use of ML's,  some call them  pitchforks
> 
> ac
> 
> http://www.medianline.com/home.html






acouch said:


> looks good elwood..
> i have 6074 on my fibtrader..
> 
> here is todays chart with support and resistance on it, i have added a upward ML as well..gap fill is at 6233 today..strong resistance on the chart is at 6228..
> great trades
> ac


----------



## Knoxy

Thanks guys,

Its cool you find them useful and have slapped me down. Admit that I didn't look through the full SPI thread. I'm a forex daytrader wanting to see what the attraction of SPI is. But I've gone right through GBPUSD and EURUSD threads where same maps provided. I'll read the links provided, no offence intended.

I'm aware 'nothing comes easy', been trading for more than 20y with all the scars.

As for me contributing, will do so here if I end up trading the SPI. If you'll indulge me with posting one non-SPI chart, the attached 30m chart for last three days EURUSD shows a modified HA provides excellent indication of dynamic support and resistance (top edge red, bottom edge green). I'll edit out the chart if taboo. Cheers.


----------



## acouch

morning all,
no spi road map today, as it is  expiry
and i hav'nt set up June one as yet..hopefully it will be up and running
by Monday

good trades
ac


----------



## GMS

Good Morning,

The SPI200 June 10 contract was unable to continue the distribution higher on the reopen yesterday and resumed development. A midsession responsive buy tail at 4848 rotated the market back into the development and a late session initiating buy tail at 4879 extended the market higher.

In the overnight session, the market initially rotated lower to a rejecting responsive buy tail at 4879, that rotated the market higher to 4893 initially and development. The distribution higher resumed midsession continuing to a rejecting responsive sell tail at 4909 and development in a 4892 to 4908 range into the close.

The market continues to alternate between distributions higher and periods of development. The market resumed development into the close this morning, although the bias remains bullish.

Key resistance is at 4909, 4917/23 and 4941.

Key support is at 4879, a break opens potential for a rotation to 4867. Key support follows at 4850.


Resistance: 4879, 4884, 4892, 4899, 4909, 4917, 4923, 4934, 4938, 4941

Support: 4867, 4862, 4850, 4844, 4835, 4830, 4822, 4812, 4806


Value Area Levels (Source Bloomberg)
Previous SYCOM and Day Session 4840 to 4869
Overnight Session Closed 4885 to 4901

Have a good day.


Aliom Pty Limited (ACN 123 876 291 AFSL 323182) does not warrant the accuracy, completeness or correctness of any information herein. In preparing this post, Aliom Pty Limited has not taken into account the investment objectives, financial situation or particular needs of any particular person. Before making an investment decision on the basis of information in this post you should consider whether the information is appropriate in light of your particular investment objectives, financial situation or particular needs. You may wish to consult a licenced advisor or accountant to assist your decision.


----------



## Joolean

Thanks for keeping them going ac. I for one follow them and think it's bloody great that you do take the effort to post them.
Same for GMS keeping his posts on market profile going. All good stuff.

If you've got something to contribute knoxy, that'd be good also but don't start off by attacking ac. She's been trading the spi and diligently posting for years which makes her knowledge and input here very valuable.


----------



## GMS

joolean,

Thanks. As a client advisor, writing the analysis is a time consuming experience, when there is alot on each morning and its done for SFE three and ten yr bonds as well as the SPI.

I have found it useful and so have my clients and ASF readers, which makes it worthwhile.

Cheers.


----------



## acouch

morning all
a test run on the June road map
small ranges this quarter..we will see,if it needs tweaking, though it seemed to be spot on yesterday.


have a great day, and good trades
ac


----------



## GMS

Good Morning,

The SPI200 June 10 contract opened to a rejecting responsive sell tail at 4902, and rotated lower back inside the establishing development, through the morning session. A midsession rejecting responsive buy tail at 4870 rotated the market higher through the session range.

In the overnight session and early session rejecting responsive buy tail at 4867 rotated the market higher extending through to an early morning rejecting responsive sell tail at 4897, and the market rotated back in the development to close 4887.

The market has traded in a development phase yesterday and overnight and is balanced. Bias remains bullish.

Key resistance is at 4897/02, 4909, 4917/23 and 4941.

Key support is at 4883/79, a break below negates the bullish bias, and opens potential for a rotation to 4867. A break at 4867 opens potential for a new distribution lower.


Resistance: 4892, 4897, 4902, 4909, 4917, 4923, 4934, 4938, 4941, 4958, 4692

Support: 4883, 4879, 4667, 4862, 4850, 4844, 4835, 4830, 4822


Value Area Levels (Source Bloomberg)
Previous SYCOM and Day Session 4880 to 4898
Overnight Session Closed 4873 to 4890


Have a good day.



Aliom Pty Limited (ACN 123 876 291 AFSL 323182) does not warrant the accuracy, completeness or correctness of any information herein. In preparing this post, Aliom Pty Limited has not taken into account the investment objectives, financial situation or particular needs of any particular person. Before making an investment decision on the basis of information in this post you should consider whether the information is appropriate in light of your particular investment objectives, financial situation or particular needs. You may wish to consult a licenced advisor or accountant to assist your decision.


----------



## WaveSurfer

Not much of a head and shoulders guy myself, I do take note of the ones on higher time frames (weekly +). There is one potentially forming on the weekly (chart is XJO BTW). Apologies if it's already been mentioned.

If I play these, it's usually aggressive - anticipating a move back towards the neckline to trigger all those sell orders sitting just below it.


----------



## acouch

morning all
how the June road map played out its 24 hr cycle
ac


----------



## acouch

morning all
Monday's road map
have a great weekend and take care
ac


----------



## acouch

morning all,
today's road map
a little different as i lost the lot yesterday, and had to re do all my charts 

have a great day, and good trades
ac


----------



## acouch

morning all
today's road map
have a great day, and good trades
ac


----------



## GMS

Good Morning,

The SPI200 June 10 contract continued the bullish momentum on the reopen yesterday, trading shy of the development high 4909, and trading in a 4890 to 4907 range through the remainder of the session.

The market continued to trade within the development through the night session, triggering an early morning rejecting responsive buy tail at 4885 that rotated the market back in the development. An initiating buy tail at 4909 triggered late in the session that has commenced a new distribution out of the established development, closing at 4831.

The market is now in a distribution phase with minimal development and price acceptance since the distributive break at 4909 and the bias is bullish. A tail formation in the closing phase at 4928 is yet to indicate a rejecting responsive sell tail or commencement of another initiating buy tail, so there is uncertainty in the interim.

Key resistance is at 4934 initially, and 4941. A break at 4941 opens potential for a rotation to 4956/62.

Initial support is at 4925, a break opens potential for a rotation to 4914/09. Key levels follow at 4891/88.


Resistance: 4934, 4938, 4941, 4952 4956, 4962, 4971, 4978, 4985, 4992, 5000, 5009

Support: 4923, 4916, 4909, 4899, 4892, 4888, 4884, 4879, 4867, 4862


Value Area Levels (Source Bloomberg)
Previous SYCOM and Day Session 4848 to 4894
Overnight Session Closed 4889 to 4910

Have a good day.

Aliom Pty Limited (ACN 123 876 291 AFSL 323182) does not warrant the accuracy, completeness or correctness of any information herein. In preparing this post, Aliom Pty Limited has not taken into account the investment objectives, financial situation or particular needs of any particular person. Before making an investment decision on the basis of information in this post you should consider whether the information is appropriate in light of your particular investment objectives, financial situation or particular needs. You may wish to consult a licenced advisor or accountant to assist your decision.


----------



## Joolean

Doh! I was short @ 4927 then bailed on it @ 4925 about 3:40. 
Stupid brain got in the way. 

Nice arvo capitulation though.


----------



## acouch

good morning all
today's road map
have a great day, and good trades
ac


----------



## GMS

Joolean,

Yes, it was lining up for the fall on the market profile chart at that time, but took a while before it came through, and I'm always wary of the action at 4pm and onwards.

GMS


----------



## Joolean

Yeah funnily enough gms, getting near 4pm was exactly what was playing on my mind. That last half hour is too crazy for my blood.
Objectively though, there was plenty of time left and that short setup was a sitter for me so was just frustrated I bailed on it. Live and learn.


----------



## acouch

for those interested
the road map after its day's work
ac


----------



## acouch

good morning all
today's road map
have a great day, and good trades
ac


----------



## GMS

Good Morning,

The SPI200 June 10 contract continued to trade within the development yesterday in a 4892 to 4912 range.

The market traded higher overnight off the previous session point of control 4904, (a bullish indicator). The market extended higher through the session to a new distributive break to session high 4950. The market rotated back through the session range late in the session to form a tail at 4900 in the closing phase. 

The market has closed in the midst of this tail formation, and awaiting the reopen to complete the formation, to determine whether this is a rejecting responsive buy tail or an initiating sell tail extending the market lower. Bias remains bullish, a break through 4879 negates this bias.

Initial resistance is at the current point of control 4904, a break opens potential for a rotation to 4925, with key levels at 4914 and 4933.

Key support is at 4891/88, 4879, and 4867.

Resistance: 4904, 4909, 4915, 4925, 4933, 4938, 4958, 4962, 4971
Support: 4899, 4892, 4888, 4884, 4879, 4867, 4862, 4853/50, 4844, 4835


Value Area Levels (Source Bloomberg)
Previous SYCOM and Day Session 4892 to 4907
Overnight Session Closed 4912 to 4939

Have a good day.



Aliom Pty Limited (ACN 123 876 291 AFSL 323182) does not warrant the accuracy, completeness or correctness of any information herein. In preparing this post, Aliom Pty Limited has not taken into account the investment objectives, financial situation or particular needs of any particular person. Before making an investment decision on the basis of information in this post you should consider whether the information is appropriate in light of your particular investment objectives, financial situation or particular needs. You may wish to consult a licenced advisor or accountant to assist your decision.


----------



## acouch

afternoon all
eod road map

ac


----------



## acouch

morning all
Monday's road map
have a great day
ac


----------



## acouch

good morning all
today's road map
have a great day, and good trades
ac


----------



## GMS

Good Morning,

The SPI200 June 10 opened to a rejecting responsive sell tail at 4937 yesterday, rotating lower and developing in a range to 4911, initially then extending to a rejecting responsive buy tail at 4907 in the closing phase to close 4923.

The market rotated higher within the development overnight, initially to 4936, and developing, to then extend to 4943 midsession and closing 4939.
Bias remains bullish to the high side of current development, 4956/62.

Key resistance is at 4941 initially and 4956/62.

Key support is at 4936/33 a break opens potential for a rotation to 4904. Key levels are at 4925, and 4891.

Resistance: 4958, 4962, 4971, 4978, 4985, 4992, 5000, 5009, 5016, 5024
Support: 4936, 4933, 4925, 4915, 4909, 4904, 4899, 4891, 4888, 4884


Value Area Levels (Source Bloomberg)
Previous SYCOM and Day Session 4916 to 4934
Overnight Session Closed 4925 to 4936

Have a good day.

Aliom Pty Limited (ACN 123 876 291 AFSL 323182) does not warrant the accuracy, completeness or correctness of any information herein. In preparing this post, Aliom Pty Limited has not taken into account the investment objectives, financial situation or particular needs of any particular person. Before making an investment decision on the basis of information in this post you should consider whether the information is appropriate in light of your particular investment objectives, financial situation or particular needs. You may wish to consult a licenced advisor or accountant to assist your decision.


----------



## acouch

good morning all

today's road map
have a great day, and good trades
ac


----------



## acouch

good morning all
today's road map
have a great Easter and take care
ac


----------



## GMS

Good Morning,

The SPI200 June 10 continued to trade within the development Thursday. A late session initiating buy tail at 4922 extended the market higher to close 4937.

The extension higher continued in the night session. A distribution break out was rejected with a responsive sell tail at 4949 and the market rotated back in the development to close 4934.

Key resistance is at 4956/62, 4978, 5016/24
Key support is at 4933, 4922, and 4904

Resistance: 4952, 4958, 4962, 4971, 4978, 4985, 4992, 5000, 5009
Support: 4941, 4933, 4922, 4915, 4909, 4904, 4899, 4891, 4888, 4884


Value Area Levels (Source Bloomberg)
Previous SYCOM and Day Session 4879 to 4912
Overnight Session Closed 4937 to 4949

Have a good day.


Aliom Pty Limited (ACN 123 876 291 AFSL 323182) does not warrant the accuracy, completeness or correctness of any information herein. In preparing this post, Aliom Pty Limited has not taken into account the investment objectives, financial situation or particular needs of any particular person. Before making an investment decision on the basis of information in this post you should consider whether the information is appropriate in light of your particular investment objectives, financial situation or particular needs. You may wish to consult a licenced advisor or accountant to assist your decision.


----------



## acouch

good morning all
today's road map
have a great day, and good trades
ac


----------



## GMS

Good Morning,

The SPI200 June 10 contract opened to a distributive break higher yesterday, and developed in a 4950 to 4978 range. 

The market initially continued the distribution higher to 4983, and development continued in a 4959 to 4983 range. The distribution higher resumed early morning, extending to a rejecting responsive sell tail at 4995, and development continued into the close in a 4980 to 4994 range.

The market has closed in a development phase following several distributive breaks yesterday and overnight. The bias is currently towards the low side of the recent 4950 to 4995 development.

Key resistance is at 4995, 5016/24 and 5045
Key support is at 4981/78, 4962/57 and 4933

Resistance: 4985, 4995, 5000, 5009, 5016, 5024, 5032, 5045
Support: 4981/78, 4967, 4962, 4957, 4952, 4941, 4933, 4922


Value Area Levels (Source Bloomberg)
Previous SYCOM and Day Session 4959 to 4974
Overnight Session Closed 4966 to 4985

Have a good day.


Aliom Pty Limited (ACN 123 876 291 AFSL 323182) does not warrant the accuracy, completeness or correctness of any information herein. In preparing this post, Aliom Pty Limited has not taken into account the investment objectives, financial situation or particular needs of any particular person. Before making an investment decision on the basis of information in this post you should consider whether the information is appropriate in light of your particular investment objectives, financial situation or particular needs. You may wish to consult a licenced advisor or accountant to assist your decision.


----------



## acouch

good morning all
today's road map
have a great day, and good trades
ac


----------



## GMS

Good Morning,

The SPI200 June 10 contract opened to a rotation higher yesterday off a rejecting responsive buy tail at 4973, and the market continued development through the session in a 4973 to 4991 range.

Development initially continued in the night session. A rejecting responsive sell tail at 4983 rotated the market lower with development in a 4965 to 4982 range. A midmorning distribution break out of the development extended to a rejecting responsive buy tail at 4950, and development resumed through the remainder of the session in a 4950 to 4964 range.

Key resistance is at 4964, a break opens potential for a rotation to 4978/81. Key levels follow at 4995 and 5016/24.

Key support is at 4950, a break opens potential for a resumption of the distributive break and volatility. Key levels follow at 4933, and 4922

Resistance: 4958, 4964, 4971, 4978/83, 4995, 5000, 5009, 5016, 5024

Support: 4950, 4941, 4933, 4922, 4915, 4909, 4904, 4899, 4891, 4888


Value Area Levels (Source Bloomberg)
Previous SYCOM and Day Session 4969 to 4986
Overnight Session Closed 4960 to 4978

Have a good day.


Aliom Pty Limited (ACN 123 876 291 AFSL 323182) does not warrant the accuracy, completeness or correctness of any information herein. In preparing this post, Aliom Pty Limited has not taken into account the investment objectives, financial situation or particular needs of any particular person. Before making an investment decision on the basis of information in this post you should consider whether the information is appropriate in light of your particular investment objectives, financial situation or particular needs. You may wish to consult a licenced advisor or accountant to assist your decision.


----------



## acouch

good morning all
today's road map
have a great day, and good trades
ac


----------



## acouch

good morning all
Monday's road map
have a great weekend and take care
ac


----------



## acouch

good morning all
today's road map
have a great day, and good trades
ac

also to note gap fill at 4977


----------



## GMS

Good Morning,

The SPI200 June 10 contract opened to a rejecting responsive sell tail at 5005 yesterday and rotated lower to a rejecting responsive buy tail at 4992, and development in this range through the course of the session, as the market accepted prices in the new range.

The market opened to a rejecting responsive sell tail at 5007 overnight and rotated lower, continuing to develop in the prior session range.

The market has rejected a continuation higher yesterday and overnight with rejecting responsive sell tails at 5005 and 5007. Bias at present indicates a rotation lower to 4981/78.

Key resistance is at current point of control 4995, a break opens potential for a rotation to 5007. Key levels follow at 5021 and 5054.
Key support is at 4992, 4981/78, a break opens potential for a rotation to 4964.

Resistance: 4995, 5000, 5007, 5016, 5021, 5030, 5037, 5048, 5054, 5062, 5085

Support: 4983/78, 4971, 4964, 4958, 4941, 4933, 4922, 4915, 4909, 4904, 4899


Value Area Levels (Source Bloomberg)
Previous SYCOM and Day Session 4972 to 4997
Overnight Session Closed 4993 to 5002

Have a good day.



Aliom Pty Limited (ACN 123 876 291 AFSL 323182) does not warrant the accuracy, completeness or correctness of any information herein. In preparing this post, Aliom Pty Limited has not taken into account the investment objectives, financial situation or particular needs of any particular person. Before making an investment decision on the basis of information in this post you should consider whether the information is appropriate in light of your particular investment objectives, financial situation or particular needs. You may wish to consult a licenced advisor or accountant to assist your decision.


----------



## acouch

good morning all
today's road map
have a great day, and good trades
ac


----------



## nielsend

Anyone else besides myself currently suffering from symptoms of insanity from trading the SPI?


----------



## nat

nielsend said:


> Anyone else besides myself currently suffering from symptoms of insanity from trading the SPI?




Know what you mean ,i thought i was just getting the hang of it and now no vol or much range in a day .Just observing for now and on simm. Good times will come again maybe ,Nathan


----------



## acouch

good morning all
today's road map
have a great day, and good trades
ac


----------



## GMS

Good Morning,

The SPI200 June 10 contract rotated to the high side of the current development in the opening phase yesterday. A mid afternoon initiating buy tail at 5001 distributed the market out of the development extending to 5015, to close 5005.

The distribution higher continued in the night market. Another initiating buy tail late session at 5027, has the market closing on the session high 5037.

The lack of a responsive sell tail at the highs indicates the market has yet to reject the distribution higher. Bias is bullish, with an initial target 5054.

Key resistance is at 5054, and 5085.

Key support is at 5024/21, a break opens potential for a rotation to 5002. Key levels also at 5015 and 4995.


Resistance: 5037, 5048, 5054, 5062, 5085, 5094, 5100, 5112, 5122, 5149

Support: 5027, 5021, 5016, 5007, 5000, 4995, 4978, 4971, 4964, 4958


Value Area Levels (Source Bloomberg)
Previous SYCOM and Day Session 4963 to 4997
Overnight Session Closed 5003 to 5026

Have a good day.



Aliom Pty Limited (ACN 123 876 291 AFSL 323182) does not warrant the accuracy, completeness or correctness of any information herein. In preparing this post, Aliom Pty Limited has not taken into account the investment objectives, financial situation or particular needs of any particular person. Before making an investment decision on the basis of information in this post you should consider whether the information is appropriate in light of your particular investment objectives, financial situation or particular needs. You may wish to consult a licenced advisor or accountant to assist your decision.


----------



## ezylay

I just got this from quicktick.blogspot.com
I thought i'll share it. The charts look great. 
Hope some of it helps

_Hi All

On the weekend I posted a possibility of targets, by keeping it simple.
As you can see on the chart the price followed through perfectly. Keeping it simply sometimes is best.
We are now nearing the resistance level 5048-53, top on broading pattern(weekend email attached chart)
Today?s levels, the Daily DSR Line is 5011, trading above that, Intraday is 5018, breakout point to upside 5021-29 and PP is 4979.
Putting all together, overnight the breakout point was 5024, we need the market to support at this point, and a break of the high 5048-53 to advance further.
So above 5053, the 5063 and a test of 5074-80.
Below 5024, and we could see a pullback 5012 than 5008.
Let?s see where it opens today

Enjoy your trading_


----------



## acouch

evening all
updated rm in sycom
ac


----------



## acouch

good morning all
today's road map
have a great day, and good trades
ac


----------



## acouch

good morning all
Monday's road map
have a great weekend and take care
ac


----------



## ezylay

Just log on to my account.

Thank you quicktick for the 80 pts.

Still holding.

Kat


----------



## Frank D

ezylay said:


> Thank you quicktick for the 80 pts.




Let me see…

Quicktick thinks the market is going up towards 5048-53  and then 
towards 5074-80.

But below 5024 the target is 5008.

But you hold 80 points down?  

What's Quicktick proper name?


----------



## ezylay

Hello Frank D

I trade CFDs, because I work during the day and have to 2 boys, it’s a little hard for me to do this all the time. When I have days off I like to watch and trade 3 or 5 contracts.  But I like to take long term trades, and hold.  

I’m just a beginner, and trying to get some of my money back.  I lost so much and everybody wants so much for their classes.

I look at quicktick and FXStreet and MSN Money and also The Trading Room (The Age).  CMC has a free site you get daily information for the SPI also, but you have to have an account with them. I hope this helps. 

I don’t really understand it all.  All I know is she said that the market will go down on Friday.  And it did.

I’m so happy I got this trade because I have been missing out on so much.  So thank you quicktick for  the hands up, good for her for giving it away. I was sharing my trade because I was happy.  

Kate


----------



## CanOz

ezylay said:


> Hello Frank D
> 
> I trade CFDs, because I work during the day and have to 2 boys, it’s a little hard for me to do this all the time. When I have days off I like to watch and trade 3 or 5 contracts.  But I like to take long term trades, and hold.
> 
> I’m just a beginner, and trying to get some of my money back.  I lost so much and everybody wants so much for their classes.
> 
> I look at quicktick and FXStreet and MSN Money and also The Trading Room (The Age).  CMC has a free site you get daily information for the SPI also, but you have to have an account with them. I hope this helps.
> 
> I don’t really understand it all.  All I know is she said that the market will go down on Friday.  And it did.
> 
> I’m so happy I got this trade because I have been missing out on so much.  So thank you quicktick for  the hands up, good for her for giving it away. I was sharing my trade because I was happy.
> 
> Kate




EzyLay...err, you should check out Franks site. You might find some interesting things there.

Cheers,

CanOz


----------



## GMS

Good Morning,

The SPI200 June 10 contract rotated lower Friday to make a distribution break through the development low. Responsive buying negated break and rotated the market back inside the development.

The market continued trade within the development in the overnight market, until a midsession initiating sell tail at 4991 resumed the distribution lower extending to a responsive buy tail at 4933 that rejected the break lower and the market commenced price acceptance and development in a new range 4933 to 4964 into the close.

Key resistance is at 4962/64, a break opens potential for a rotation to prior development low 4995.

Key support is at 4950, a break opens potential for a rotation to 4933. A break at 4933 opens potential for a resumption of the distribution lower.

Resistance: 4955, 4962/64, 4971, 4978, 4991, 4995, 5000, 5008, 5015

Support: 4950, 4946, 4941, 4933, 4922, 4915, 4909, 4904, 4899, 4891


Value Area Levels (Source Bloomberg)
Previous SYCOM and Day Session 4995 to 5021
Overnight Session Closed 4949 to 5006.

Have a good day.


Aliom Pty Limited (ACN 123 876 291 AFSL 323182) does not warrant the accuracy, completeness or correctness of any information herein. In preparing this post, Aliom Pty Limited has not taken into account the investment objectives, financial situation or particular needs of any particular person. Before making an investment decision on the basis of information in this post you should consider whether the information is appropriate in light of your particular investment objectives, financial situation or particular needs. You may wish to consult a licenced advisor or accountant to assist your decision.


----------



## acouch

just a few nos, and time to think about

05.18.2010 5186 - high ?
03.10.2009 3111 low
Range = 2075

434 cd's from above dates
/3 = 144

09.02.2008 5186
05.18.2010 5186 - high and lower dble top ?
= 623 cd's / 144 = 433

144x144 = 2074

360x144 = 5184


have a great day
ac


----------



## acouch

good morning all
today's road map
have a great day, and good trades
ac


----------



## acouch

spi road map eod.
ac 

testing lis as i post


----------



## acouch

good morning all
today's road map
have a great day, and good trades
ac


----------



## nomore4s

hahaha What was the go with with the open today, talk about money for jam, it was never going to hold at those levels for the open at least.

Missed the rebound though as I tend to only trade once or twice off the open, then the SPI is too much work.


----------



## acouch

good morning all
today's road map
have a great day, and good trades
ac


----------



## acouch

morning,
thought i would just show you the completed 24 hr road map, before i do today's
ac


----------



## acouch

good morning all
today's road map
have a great day, and good trades
ac


----------



## GMS

Good Morning,

The SPI200 June 10 contract triggered an initiating sell tail in the opening phase yesterday, to distribute out of the development. The market extended to a rejecting responsive buy tail at 4896 and development resumed through the remainder of the session.

The market resumed the distribution lower in the overnight market, extending to another rejecting responsive buy tail at 4860 and rotation back inside the development to close 4911.

Key resistance is at 4922 and 4933.

Key support is at 4904, and 4896. A break at 4896 opens potential for a rotation to 4875. Key support follows at 4853/50.

Resistance: 4915, 4922, 4933, 4941, 4945, 4950, 4956, 4962/64

Support: 4909, 4904, 4899, 4891, 4884, 4879, 4867, 4862, 4853/50


Value Area Levels (Source Bloomberg)
Previous SYCOM and Day Session 4914 to 4952
Overnight Session Closed 4873 to 4907

Have a good day.



Aliom Pty Limited (ACN 123 876 291 AFSL 323182) does not warrant the accuracy, completeness or correctness of any information herein. In preparing this post, Aliom Pty Limited has not taken into account the investment objectives, financial situation or particular needs of any particular person. Before making an investment decision on the basis of information in this post you should consider whether the information is appropriate in light of your particular investment objectives, financial situation or particular needs. You may wish to consult a licenced advisor or accountant to assist your decision.


----------



## GMS

Good Morning,

The SPI200 June 10 contract rotated higher in the opening phase last night to a distribution break. A responsive sell tail at 4928, rejected the break and the market rotated back inside the development. the market extended lower to a responsive buy tail at 4892, to close the session at 4897.

The market continues to trade within the development, with bias currently to the high side of the overnight range.

Key resistance is at 4933 and 4945.

Key support is at 4899 and 4891. A break at 4891 opens potential for a rotation to 4875. Key support follows at 4853/50.

Resistance: 4899, 4904, 4909, 4915, 4922, 4933, 4941, 4945

Support: 4891, 4884, 4879, 4867, 4862, 4853/50, 4835, 4830


Value Area Levels (Source Bloomberg)
Previous SYCOM and Day Session 4880 to 4898
Overnight Session Closed 4901 to 4918

Have a good day.



Aliom Pty Limited (ACN 123 876 291 AFSL 323182) does not warrant the accuracy, completeness or correctness of any information herein. In preparing this post, Aliom Pty Limited has not taken into account the investment objectives, financial situation or particular needs of any particular person. Before making an investment decision on the basis of information in this post you should consider whether the information is appropriate in light of your particular investment objectives, financial situation or particular needs. You may wish to consult a licenced advisor or accountant to assist your decision.


----------



## acouch

good morning all,
hope you all enjoyed your Anzac Day long weekend 
today's road map
have a great day, and good trades
ac


----------



## acouch

good morning all
today's road map
have a great day, and good trades
ac


----------



## acouch

good morning all
today's road map
have a great day, and good trades
ac


----------



## acouch

morning,
road map end of 24hr cycle
ac


----------



## acouch

good morning all
Monday's road map
have a great weekend and take care
ac


----------



## acouch

good morning all
today's road map
have a great day, and good trades
ac


----------



## acouch

good morning all
today's road map
have a great day, and good trades
ac


----------



## acouch

good morning all
today's road map
have a great day, and good trades
ac 


today;s road map similar to yesterday's


----------



## acouch

updated spi rm  into its 24hr cycle
ac


----------



## acouch

good morning all
today's road map

have a great day, and good trades
ac

http://www.marketwatch.com/story/stocks-fall-sharply-dows-biggest-drop-in-over-a-year-2010-05-06


----------



## acouch

morning all
Monday's road map
have a great weekend and take care
ac


----------



## acouch

good morning all
today's road map
have a great day, and good trades
ac


----------



## acouch

good morning all
today's road map
have a great day, and good trades
ac


----------



## acouch

evening,
just had to post it,
this rm never ceases to amaze me

ac


----------



## acouch

good morning all
today's road map
have a great day, and good trades
ac


----------



## acouch

good morning all
today's road map
have a great day, and good trades
ac


----------



## acouch

good morning all
Monday's road map
have a great weekend and take care
ac


----------



## GMS

Good Morning,

The SPI200 June 10 contract opened the Friday night session to a rejecting responsive sell tail at 4606, and rotated lower, to a distribution out of the establishing development. The distribution initially extended to 4568, although a midsession initiating sell tail extended the distribution to a rejecting responsive buy tail at 4486, with limited price acceptance (development ) along the range. The market rotated higher off the RBT @ 4486 and commenced further price acceptance in a 4486 to 4533 range.

The market has closed accepting prices in a new range following the distributive break Friday night. The development is in its infancy and the price range is still forming.

Key resistance is at 4549/53, 4565/68, a break opens potential for a rotation to 4583 initially and 4608

Key support is at 4496, 4486/83. A break at 4486/83, resumes the distribution lower. Key levels follow at 4445 and 4421.

Resistance: 4539, 4553, 4561, 4565/68, 4573, 4578, 4583, 4589, 4594, 4608
Support: 4524, 4510, 4502, 4496, 4486, 4478, 4467, 4452/48, 4445, 4435



Value Area Levels (Source Bloomberg)
Previous SYCOM and Day Session 4614 to 4651
Overnight Session 4508 to 4578

Have a good day.


Aliom Pty Limited (ACN 123 876 291 AFSL 323182) does not warrant the accuracy, completeness or correctness of any information herein. In preparing this post, Aliom Pty Limited has not taken into account the investment objectives, financial situation or particular needs of any particular person. Before making an investment decision on the basis of information in this post you should consider whether the information is appropriate in light of your particular investment objectives, financial situation or particular needs. You may wish to consult a licenced advisor or accountant to assist your decision.


----------



## acouch

good morning all
today's road map
have a great day, and good trades
ac


----------



## GMS

Good Morning,

The SPI200 June 10 contract continued price acceptance in the new range yesterday. A midsession initiating sell tail at 4516 rotated the market to the low side of the development midsession, extending to a new distribution break, that was rejected with a responsive buy tail at 4476 and the market rotated back inside the development to close 4494.

The market initially rotated higher overnight to a rejecting responsive sell tail at 4533, which capped gains. The market rotated lower to a new distribution that was again rejected with a responsive buy tail at 4453, and once again the market rotated back inside the development to close 4524.

Several distribution attempts lower have been rejected and the market has returned to a balanced stance and continues to accept prices in the establishing development.

Key resistance is at 4549/53, 4565/68, a break opens potential for a rotation to 4583 initially and 4608
Key support is at 4512, 4486/83, and 4476.

Resistance: 4533, 4539, 4553, 4561, 4565/68, 4573, 4578, 4583, 4589, 4594, 4608
Support: 4524, 4510, 4502, 4496, 4486, 4478, 4467, 4452/48, 4445, 4435



Value Area Levels (Source Bloomberg)
Previous SYCOM and Day Session 4496 to 4564
Overnight Session 4479 to 4524


Have a good day.



Aliom Pty Limited (ACN 123 876 291 AFSL 323182) does not warrant the accuracy, completeness or correctness of any information herein. In preparing this post, Aliom Pty Limited has not taken into account the investment objectives, financial situation or particular needs of any particular person. Before making an investment decision on the basis of information in this post you should consider whether the information is appropriate in light of your particular investment objectives, financial situation or particular needs. You may wish to consult a licenced advisor or accountant to assist your decision.


----------



## acouch

good morning all
today's road map
have a great day, and good trades
ac


----------



## GMS

Good Morning,

The SPI200 June 10 contract rotated lower in the opening phase yesterday, extending to the low side of the development and a rejecting responsive buy tail at 4458. The market rotated higher into the close of the session to close 4493.

Trading initially continued within the development in the night session. A midsession rejecting responsive sell tail at 4527 capped gains and the market rotated lower through the morning session to another distribution break that was short lived triggering a rejecting responsive buy tail at 4433, and commencing price acceptance in a 4433 to 4461 range into the close.

Key resistance is at 4461, 4476 and 4486.

Key support is at 4433, a break resumes the distribution lower. Key levels follow at 4421, 4396, 4386 and 4341.

Resistance: 4445, 4448/52, 4461, 4467, 4475, 4486, 4496, 4502, 4510, 4527, 4533
Support: 4433, 4421, 4406, 4396, 4385, 4379, 4369, 4359, 4341



Value Area Levels (Source Bloomberg)
Previous SYCOM and Day Session 4470 to 4517
Overnight Session 4463 to 4516

Have a good day.




Aliom Pty Limited (ACN 123 876 291 AFSL 323182) does not warrant the accuracy, completeness or correctness of any information herein. In preparing this post, Aliom Pty Limited has not taken into account the investment objectives, financial situation or particular needs of any particular person. Before making an investment decision on the basis of information in this post you should consider whether the information is appropriate in light of your particular investment objectives, financial situation or particular needs. You may wish to consult a licenced advisor or accountant to assist your decision.


----------



## acouch

good morning all
today's road map
have a great day, and good trades
ac


----------



## GMS

Good Morning,

The SPI200 June 10 contract triggered a responsive sell tail at 4435 in the opening phase yesterday. The market rotated lower commencing a new distribution break initially to 4395, with price acceptance in a 4395 to 4434 range. A late session initiating sell tail resumed the distribution lower.

The distribution continued overnight. An attempt to rotate higher was capped with a midsession rejecting responsive sell tail at 4407, and the market rotated lower to resume the distribution to a rejecting responsive buy tail at 4350. The market returned to price acceptance following the rejection in a 4351 to 4406 range.

Key resistance is at 4406 and 4433.

Key support is at 4396, and 4350.

Resistance: 4406, 4421, 4433, 4445, 4448/52, 4467, 4475, 4486
Support: 4396, 4385, 4379, 4369, 4359, 4341, 4336, 4322, 4319



Value Area Levels (Source Bloomberg)
Previous SYCOM and Day Session: 4415 to 4502
Overnight Session: 4364 to 4395

Have a good day.



Aliom Pty Limited (ACN 123 876 291 AFSL 323182) does not warrant the accuracy, completeness or correctness of any information herein. In preparing this post, Aliom Pty Limited has not taken into account the investment objectives, financial situation or particular needs of any particular person. Before making an investment decision on the basis of information in this post you should consider whether the information is appropriate in light of your particular investment objectives, financial situation or particular needs. You may wish to consult a licenced advisor or accountant to assist your decision.


----------



## acouch

evening all
have to love the lis..
enjoy your evening
a:couch


----------



## acouch

good morning all
today's road map
have a great day, and good trades
ac


----------



## acouch

good morning all
Monday's road map
have a great weekend and take care
ac


----------



## acouch

good morning all
today's road map
have a great day, and good trades
ac


----------



## GMS

Good Morning,

The SPI200 June 10 contract continued development yesterday in the establishing range. A midsession rejecting responsive buy tail at 4310/11 rotates the market back inside the development. An initiating buy tail at 4389 in the closing phase triggers a new distribution break out of the development.

The distribution higher was rejected in the opening phase of the night session, a responsive sell tail at 4435 rotated the market lower and the market resumed development in the establishing range. A tail has triggered in the closing phase this morning at 4352 to close 4346.

The market rotated back in the development overnight following a failed upside distribution break. The tail in the closing phase is yet to mature and indicate whether this is a rejecting responsive buy breaking the downside move or an initiating sell extending the market lower.

Key resistance is at 4352, 4364, 4389 and 4421
Key support is at 4325/18, 4293, 4256 and 4222

Resistance: 4352, 4359, 4364, 4379, 4389, 4396, 4406, 4421, 4435, 4445, 4452
Support: 4339, 4336, 4325/18, 4315, 4302, 4293, 4280, 4275, 4268, 4255, 4222



Value Area Levels (Source Bloomberg)
Previous SYCOM and Day Session: 4268 to 4353
Overnight Session: 4368 to 4407

Have a good day.

Aliom Pty Limited (ACN 123 876 291 AFSL 323182) does not warrant the accuracy, completeness or correctness of any information herein. In preparing this post, Aliom Pty Limited has not taken into account the investment objectives, financial situation or particular needs of any particular person. Before making an investment decision on the basis of information in this post you should consider whether the information is appropriate in light of your particular investment objectives, financial situation or particular needs. You may wish to consult a licenced advisor or accountant to assist your decision.


----------



## acouch

good morning all
today's road map
have a great day, and good trades
ac


----------



## acouch

road map eod for those interested
have a great evening
ac


----------



## acouch

good morning all
today's road map
have a great day, and good trades
ac


----------



## acouch

good morning all
today's road map
have a great day, and good trades
ac


----------



## acouch

morning
road map eod 24 hr trading
ac


----------



## acouch

good morning all
Monday's road map
have a great weekend and take care
ac


----------



## acouch

good morning all,
the road map today is the same as Monday's as our girl
has not finished her 24 hr cycle.
but here is where she is up to on the map so far..
have a great day, and good trades
ac


----------



## acouch

morning
just thought i would show you the road map now as it has finished its cycle..
i have marked the lis /price with arrows, as you can see
price was once again controlled by the lis..
ac


----------



## acouch

good morning all
today's road map
have a great day, and good trades
ac


----------



## GMS

Good Morning,

The SPI200 June 10 contract opened to a rejecting responsive sell tail at 4426, rotating lower to a distribution break. The distribution extended to a rejecting responsive buy tail at 4388 that rotated the market higher resuming price acceptance in the lower range and closing 4410.

The distribution lower resumed in the overnight session, to a rejecting responsive buy tail at 4352. The market rotated back through the session range to a rejecting responsive sell tail at 4425 and developed through the session in a 4354 to 4424 range to close 4366.

The market has resumed development following a rejection of the distribution lower overnight, and bias is currently for continued price acceptance in this range.

Key resistance is at 4372, 4388, a break opens potential for a rotation to 4416. Key level follows at 4431. 

Key support is at 4352, a break resumes the distribution lower. Key levels follow at 4333/28 and 4283.

Resistance: 4372, 4379, 4389, 4396, 4406, 4416, 4422, 4428, 4435, 4445, 4452
Support: 4365, 4359, 4352, 4339, 4333, 4326, 4322, 4315, 4302, 4293, 4283



Value Area Levels (Source Bloomberg)
Previous SYCOM and Day Session: 4397 to 4427
Overnight Session: 4366 to 4409

Have a good day.



Aliom Pty Limited (ACN 123 876 291 AFSL 323182) does not warrant the accuracy, completeness or correctness of any information herein. In preparing this post, Aliom Pty Limited has not taken into account the investment objectives, financial situation or particular needs of any particular person. Before making an investment decision on the basis of information in this post you should consider whether the information is appropriate in light of your particular investment objectives, financial situation or particular needs. You may wish to consult a licenced advisor or accountant to assist your decision.


----------



## acouch

good morning all
today's road map
have a great day, and good trades
ac


----------



## acouch

morning 
a day in the life of the rm
ac


----------



## acouch

good morning all
Monday's road map
have a great weekend, and take care
ac


----------



## Joolean

Off Topic. 

Ac, gms or anyone else, would you mind searching the source code of this web page for the word jeffiscool. Just right click on a blank part of the page and choose View Source.

I've found a whole section of code targeting a bunch of trading websites to redirect the page to jeffiscool.com. It doesn't seem to redirect every time though, not sure why.

Just wondering if my computer's been compromised or if aussiestockforums itself has been hacked. I get the script in all three of my web browsers and only on aussiestockforums which makes me think it might not just be my computer.

Thanks,
Jules.


----------



## Bushman

Joolean said:


> Off Topic.
> 
> Ac, gms or anyone else, would you mind searching the source code of this web page for the word jeffiscool. Just right click on a blank part of the page and choose View Source.
> 
> I've found a whole section of code targeting a bunch of trading websites to redirect the page to jeffiscool.com. It doesn't seem to redirect every time though, not sure why.
> 
> Just wondering if my computer's been compromised or if aussiestockforums itself has been hacked. I get the script in all three of my web browsers and only on aussiestockforums which makes me think it might not just be my computer.
> 
> Thanks,
> Jules.




I found this code - hope this helps? 


eval("window" + "." + "location" + "= 'http://www.jeffiscool.com/annoying.html'");


----------



## Joolean

Thanks Bushman, that's it.

I just spent some time going through the code and realised that it appears to be an intentional ploy by the forum, not a malicious injection. It targets proxies, so if the page is not coming from any of the listed hosts in the script, it re-directs you to jeffs annoying page. Bit funny really.
Not sure why I was re-directed in the first place but not a problem any more. Sorry for the off topic.

Regards,
Jules.


----------



## acouch

good morning all
today's road map
have a great day, and good trades
ac


----------



## acouch

good morning all
today's road map
have a great day, and good trades
ac


----------



## acouch

morning
a day in the life of the road map
ac


----------



## acouch

good morning all
today's road map
have a great day, and good trades
ac


----------



## acouch

good morning all
today's road map
have a great day, and good trades
ac


----------



## acouch

good morning all
Monday's road map
have a great weekend and take care
ac


----------



## acouch

good morning all
today's road map
have a great day, and good trades
ac


----------



## acouch

good morning all
today's road map
as it is a new contract, it might need a bit of twigging..as this is its first day..so we will watch and see how it goes..as it has to last 3 months  
have a great day, and good trades
ac


----------



## acouch

good morning all
Monday's road map
have a great weekend and take care
ac


----------



## acouch

good morning all
today's road map
have a great day, and good trades
ac


----------



## supermatt

no offense but what is the point of all the posts you make ac?


----------



## acouch

supermatt said:


> no offense but what is the point of all the posts you make ac?





probably nothing supermatt,

i just like to spend 15 mins of my time of a morning doing them and posting..

but you are probably right..it is a waste of my time
have a great day, and take care out there.
ac


----------



## tech/a

Placed a longer term short trade on the SPI yesterday.
Explained a little in this post.

https://www.aussiestockforums.com/forums/showthread.php?p=563011&posted=1#post563011


----------



## Twiddle

tech/a.

When I look at your attached chart pic I see either a down trend starting mid april, or an up trend starting mid may.

I am very new to Tech analysis, so I don't really know what to look for with things like Elliot wave, which you appear to be applying here.

How do you determine the starting point for your analysis? Is it subjective to the point that everyone looking at the same chart will arrive at a different conclusion?


----------



## amb005

*Best brokerage for trading the SPI*

Anyone know who provides the best brokerage rates for the SPI, Im current trading about 8 contracts with over 1500 RTs per month. I have sent this info off to a few brokers, the best that came back was IB (interactive brokers) with around $10 a round turn. Anyone know any brokers who have cheaper?

Cheers,


----------



## tech/a

Twiddle said:


> tech/a.
> 
> When I look at your attached chart pic I see either a down trend starting mid april, or an up trend starting mid may.
> 
> I am very new to Tech analysis, so I don't really know what to look for with things like Elliot wave, which you appear to be applying here.
> 
> How do you determine the starting point for your analysis? Is it subjective to the point that everyone looking at the same chart will arrive at a different conclusion?




Sorry Twiddle just saw your post---will answer when I have a little more time.
Closed my short position yesterday. The XAO thread has my analysis on it.



amb005 said:


> Anyone know who provides the best brokerage rates for the SPI, Im current trading about 8 contracts with over 1500 RTs per month. I have sent this info off to a few brokers, the best that came back was IB (interactive brokers) with around $10 a round turn. Anyone know any brokers who have cheaper?
> 
> Cheers,




IB is the best by far in my view.
Takes a bit to get an account open but once up and running is a great platform.


----------



## Frank D

*Re: Best brokerage for trading the SPI*



amb005 said:


> Anyone know who provides the best brokerage rates for the SPI, Im current trading about 8 contracts with over 1500 RTs per month. I have sent this info off to a few brokers, the best that came back was IB (interactive brokers) with around $10 a round turn. Anyone know any brokers who have cheaper?
> 
> Cheers,




For those numbers I can get you cheaper at Halifax than IB. (contacted broker for you), you might be able to even haggle lower

They also provide a discount on your SPI margins if you wish.

details private message and person to talk to.

*Note:- I have no affiliation with Halifax.*


----------



## Ned Land

*Re: Best brokerage for trading the SPI*



amb005 said:


> Anyone know who provides the best brokerage rates for the SPI, Im current trading about 8 contracts with over 1500 RTs per month. I have sent this info off to a few brokers, the best that came back was IB (interactive brokers) with around $10 a round turn. Anyone know any brokers who have cheaper?
> 
> Cheers,




Hi amb005,

I'd give Aliom and Macquarie a call. I would have thought that you'd be able to get your costs down to around $2.50 to $3 each way (plus exchange fees, GST etc). You may be able to save around $2 or perhaps a little more per RT if you "negotiate". I think Aliom is working hard to build their business. They'd be my first port of call.
Obviously, I'm not taking into account the software you're using. I know Aliom support TT but not CQG. Best of luck with that. 
....oh...and I don't work for Aliom. I did the rounds earlier this year. I spoke to Macq, Aliom, IB and MF Global. Aliom and Macq were the most competitive by a reasonable margin.


----------



## amb005

Thanks frank d and ned land, I gave macquarie and aliom a call, macquarie couldnt beat IBs 10 a RT, they offer $15 a round turn. Aliom were a bit all over the place, the prices changing depending who I spoke to, also the fact that there are no prices on the website, meaning nothing in writing, bothers me a bit. Emailed Halifax still awaiting a response, Ill let you know the best rates I find.

Cheers,


----------



## supermatt

any news amb? I am interested to see what the costs are


----------



## tech/a

Anyone actually trading the SPI V Analysing it?
Currently short one contract from 4406
Click to expand


----------



## waza1960

Hi Tech,
           I managed to land a professional futures trading job which I start on monday and I will be trading the SPI only10 min chart  10 contracts/trade.
   There's hope for us 50 yr olds+ yet .I feel very lucky to get the chance I would work for nothing just for the knowledge.
  I 'll let you know how I go after I settle in.


----------



## supermatt

waza1960 said:


> Hi Tech,
> I managed to land a professional futures trading job which I start on monday and I will be trading the SPI only10 min chart  10 contracts/trade.
> There's hope for us 50 yr olds+ yet .I feel very lucky to get the chance I would work for nothing just for the knowledge.
> I 'll let you know how I go after I settle in.




awesome! congratulations, its a job many of us dream about. do keep us posted on how it all goes


----------



## tech/a

Copybook Fib retracement to 61.8% of the last move.
SPI 120 min chart
Waza keep us informed.
Click to expand


----------



## ThingyMajiggy

tech/a said:


> Copybook Fib retracement to 61.8% of the last move.
> SPI 120 min chart
> Waza keep us informed.
> Click to expand




Wow, do you seriously use all the crap that is on that chart or do you just not know how to turn it off?


----------



## tech/a

ThingyMajiggy said:


> Wow, do you seriously use all the crap that is on that chart or do you just not know how to turn it off?




Most of the Crap I use when trading intraday on a 12/20 min chart.
Very little of the Crap I use on longerterm position trades.

A lot of the crap on the chart isnt referenced as its shown for every individual bar.
But there are specific bars where the crap is utilised.
If you know how to read the crap then it is of use, if you cant----- then its just crap.

Youll notice the chart above has the crap expanded and is easier to read for those who can read it.


----------



## ThingyMajiggy

tech/a said:


> Most of the Crap I use when trading intraday on a 12/20 min chart.
> Very little of the Crap I use on longerterm position trades.
> 
> A lot of the crap on the chart isnt referenced as its shown for every individual bar.
> But there are specific bars where the crap is utilised.
> If you know how to read the crap then it is of use, if you cant----- then its just crap.
> 
> Youll notice the chart above has the crap expanded and is easier to read for those who can read it.




Fair enough, each to their own. I've used TG and IMO, most of that extra stuff is crap, fancy versions of moving averages basically, the volume, bars and VSA signals are fine, but anyway, if its of use to you, then go for it!


----------



## captain black

tech/a said:


> Most of the Crap I use when trading intraday on a 12/20 min chart.
> Very little of the Crap I use on longerterm position trades.
> 
> A lot of the crap on the chart isnt referenced as its shown for every individual bar.
> But there are specific bars where the crap is utilised.
> If you know how to read the crap then it is of use, if you cant----- then its just crap.
> 
> Youll notice the chart above has the crap expanded and is easier to read for those who can read it.




ROFL! 

Can I fling some crap around too......  :fan


----------



## tech/a

Sam

Your right I was really only highlighting the Fib.
Should have left off the other crap.


----------



## CanOz

waza1960 said:


> Hi Tech,
> I managed to land a professional futures trading job which I start on monday and I will be trading the SPI only10 min chart  10 contracts/trade.
> There's hope for us 50 yr olds+ yet .I feel very lucky to get the chance I would work for nothing just for the knowledge.
> I 'll let you know how I go after I settle in.




Hey Waza, congrats! That's fantastic news. It would be great if you could relate to your experience's for everyone.

Good luck mate.

CanOz


----------



## tech/a

Closed short for 62 tick gain.


----------



## waza1960

My first day no trades so far.......
But I'm staying for the night session so we'll see.
Very low volume today.Markets probably waiting for earnings from US for a direction.
I seem to have settled in well for the first day seem to be up to speed with the T/A just got to pick up Trade craft now


----------



## nielsend

waza1960 said:


> Hi Tech,
> I managed to land a professional futures trading job which I start on monday and I will be trading the SPI only10 min chart  10 contracts/trade.
> There's hope for us 50 yr olds+ yet .I feel very lucky to get the chance I would work for nothing just for the knowledge.
> I 'll let you know how I go after I settle in.




Hey Waza, how's the trading coming along? Any chance you can keep us posted?


----------



## waza1960

> Hey Waza, how's the trading coming along? Any chance you can keep us posted?



My results so far:  Week 1 36ticks profit
                          Week 2 6 ticks profit
      Today start of Week 3 11ticks profit.
Some details: I work in a small office with one other trader who supervises me.I have two screens he has 4 screens I use the Esignal Profit Source platform and have CNBC on in work hours.
 Week 1 Profits were 80% the work of the supervisor with input from me.
  Week 2 my supervisor was only present for two days so I studied and paper traded the other three days hence the low profit.
 Style of trading is momentum trading using Stochastics mainly and some short term fundamental anaylsis ie earnings news,Asian markets,metals


----------



## nielsend

waza1960 said:


> My results so far:  Week 1 36ticks profit
> Week 2 6 ticks profit
> Today start of Week 3 11ticks profit.
> Some details: I work in a small office with one other trader who supervises me.I have two screens he has 4 screens I use the Esignal Profit Source platform and have CNBC on in work hours.
> Week 1 Profits were 80% the work of the supervisor with input from me.
> Week 2 my supervisor was only present for two days so I studied and paper traded the other three days hence the low profit.
> Style of trading is momentum trading using Stochastics mainly and some short term fundamental anaylsis ie earnings news,Asian markets,metals




Sounds promising. It would be great if you can keep us updated regularly and let us know what you are learning from the experience

I also trade the SPI fulltime, but for myself. I've been trading fulltime for 3 years over a 3 & 1/2 year period (had to go back to work for 6 months after a year and a half due to the sudden ban on short selling in stocks), and solely trading the SPI for 1 year. All with mixed results. However it's starting to come together now. I basically trade short term swings in the market, with entries in the day session and try not to hold any later than late in the evening. 

Any chance you can elaborate on your stop placement strategy. This is the area where I’ve had most of my issues. There are plenty of great setups out there, but managing the exit is the hardest part of trading to master, well for me anyway.


----------



## Trade all Day

nielsend said:


> Sounds promising. It would be great if you can keep us updated regularly and let us know what you are learning from the experience
> 
> I also trade the SPI fulltime, but for myself. I've been trading fulltime for 3 years over a 3 & 1/2 year period (had to go back to work for 6 months after a year and a half due to the sudden ban on short selling in stocks), and solely trading the SPI for 1 year. All with mixed results. However it's starting to come together now. I basically trade short term swings in the market, with entries in the day session and try not to hold any later than late in the evening.
> 
> Any chance you can elaborate on your stop placement strategy. This is the area where I’ve had most of my issues. There are plenty of great setups out there, but managing the exit is the hardest part of trading to master, well for me anyway.





Interesting thread.

I just started trading the Spi fulltime this week.
So far it's been ok-- so fingers crossed.
I trade day time only and 20 at a time.
Would be interested to know how many lots others trade on 
a regular basis and methods used to trade ?


----------



## RazzaDazzla

How goes it Waz?


----------



## waza1960

> How goes it Waz?



Week 3 results 31 ticks profit I'm now authorised to trade solo.I made my first solo trade which was a loss but still a successful week which is the main thing.I feel I'm struggling a bit when T/A conflicts with F/A,Momentum etc that is how much weight to give to each .


> Any chance you can elaborate on your stop placement strategy. This is the area where I’ve had most of my issues. There are plenty of great setups out there, but managing the exit is the hardest part of trading to master, well for me anyway.



I may not be much help to you if your looking for strict rule based stops.My stops are not broker based but mental or written stops specific to each trade usually positioned above/below S&R lines also time is a factor because all trades are momentum based.
No trading the Spi tonight waiting for the FOMC Statement in the morning.


----------



## Stops

For those who trade the SPI there was an interesting set up at the open today.

When the market opened this morning there was a seller @ 4500 trying to unload 967 lots.He never got filled on the first trade so he pulled his order so as not to scare the market.If you watched carefully he got filled by lowering his offer and selling 40-50 lots at a time.He obviously new something as the market never traded higher than 4500 and has been falling all day.


----------



## Broadway

Stops said:


> For those who trade the SPI there was an interesting set up at the open today.
> 
> When the market opened this morning there was a seller @ 4500 trying to unload 967 lots.He never got filled on the first trade so he pulled his order so as not to scare the market.If you watched carefully he got filled by lowering his offer and selling 40-50 lots at a time.He obviously new something as the market never traded higher than 4500 and has been falling all day.




Problem is that there may be other scenarios.
1. He was already short from 3 days ago and was trying to push the market down as far as possible to maximise his profits.
2. Today could be a swing bottom and he was trying to push the market down to pick up a load of longs in anything asx.
3. Hes just doing it to screw with you and there was no purpose to it.
4. How do you know it was him that came back later to grab 40-50 lot shorts?
Question is whether the DOM action you saw had predictive qualities and if you see it again(which may take months of staring) will the same price moves happen again? 
I tried spi dom staring, couldn't solve it, but maybe others can.


----------



## Stops

Broadway said:


> Problem is that there may be other scenarios.
> 1. He was already short from 3 days ago and was trying to push the market down as far as possible to maximise his profits.
> 2. Today could be a swing bottom and he was trying to push the market down to pick up a load of longs in anything asx.
> 3. Hes just doing it to screw with you and there was no purpose to it.
> 4. How do you know it was him that came back later to grab 40-50 lot shorts?
> Question is whether the DOM action you saw had predictive qualities and if you see it again(which may take months of staring) will the same price moves happen again?
> I tried spi dom staring, couldn't solve it, but maybe others can.




From my days many years ago on the SFE floor as a local trader this was a certain tell.A big Broker would try to unload at the open and if they didn't get filled they would back off and spread the order amoung a few of their traders to sell smaller lots before the cash opened.

But it doesn't happen every day but if you know what to look for at the open it can be a very profitable time to trade.Today for example seeing this I was able to take advantage of this and thus take it easy for the rest of the month.

BTW another tell is when the market opens more than 5 points lower or higher than the sycom close it usually gives a clue to the direction of the day.


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## waza1960

> Hey Waza, how's the trading coming along? Any chance you can keep us posted?



 Week 4 progress: A frustrating week a loss of 30 points .Price action was too choppy  during the week and Stochastics  were next to useless.
 Only positive was avoiding the 6 or more trades that I would have taken a few weeks ago which would have being losers. Looking forward to a better result this coming week.


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## tech/a

Ever tried the DAX.

I find it a much easier beast to read.
Opens 4.30 eastern and closes around 10.30.
Has some really nice strong 60-80 tick moves.
25 Euro a tick ($1.41)
FTSE is very similar with a 10 pound tick size.($1.70)
Not quite the range.
3 min bars show 500-1000 contracts.


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## nielsend

waza1960 said:


> Week 4 progress: A frustrating week a loss of 30 points .Price action was too choppy  during the week and Stochastics  were next to useless.
> Only positive was avoiding the 6 or more trades that I would have taken a few weeks ago which would have being losers. Looking forward to a better result this coming week.




Frustrating is correct. Managed a flat week last week, which wasn't bad considering how choppy it was. Having a better week so far this week, managed a decent long trade on Monday but missed the boat today. There was nothing on my charts that indicated the bounce from 4400. Can't catch them all!

I have no idea how anyone can combine FA with TA successfully?


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## nielsend

tech/a said:


> Ever tried the DAX.
> 
> I find it a much easier beast to read.
> Opens 4.30 eastern and closes around 10.30.
> Has some really nice strong 60-80 tick moves.
> 25 Euro a tick ($1.41)
> FTSE is very similar with a 10 pound tick size.($1.70)
> Not quite the range.
> 3 min bars show 500-1000 contracts.




Davin Clarke (http://www.trade4edge.com/) has commented many a time on his preference to trade the DAX over the SPI, purely for liquidity and volatility reasons. I'm planning to eventually incorporate the FTSE & DAX futures into my basket of products down the track. For a while I tracked the HSI, but found it too hard to read and therefore apply anything useful to it, mainly due to the short trading sessions. You can get wholloped if you carry over from the previous session as it can gap up or down significantly!


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## supermatt

tech/a said:


> Ever tried the DAX.
> 
> I find it a much easier beast to read.
> Opens 4.30 eastern and closes around 10.30.
> Has some really nice strong 60-80 tick moves.
> 25 Euro a tick ($1.41)
> FTSE is very similar with a 10 pound tick size.($1.70)
> Not quite the range.
> 3 min bars show 500-1000 contracts.




ive been reading euronext liffe website and it says 10pounds per index point , minimum price movement 0.5 (5 pounds)

so does that get converted back into australian dollers. ie 20 AUD per point? etc

where do you get the $1.70 from may i ask  ?

and the FDAX is 25 pound per 1 index point or 12.50 per 0.5.

does this sound correct? i have never traded these before.

which one has more volume traded ? ftse or dax? the ftse seems good to trade for us aussies 

sorry for all the questions


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## tech/a

supermatt said:


> ive been reading euronext liffe website and it says 10pounds per index point , minimum price movement 0.5 (5 pounds)
> 
> so does that get converted back into australian dollers. ie 20 AUD per point? etc
> 
> where do you get the $1.70 from may i ask  ?
> 
> and the FDAX is 25 pound per 1 index point or 12.50 per 0.5.
> 
> does this sound correct? i have never traded these before.
> 
> which one has more volume traded ? ftse or dax? the ftse seems good to trade for us aussies
> 
> sorry for all the questions




This is the conversion .
This is the link for a good converter
http://www.x-rates.com/calculator.html

I trade IB and was wondering why my capital base wasn't altering when I traded DAX or FTSE.

After contacting some experienced people they tell me with IB
you will have both a Pound and EURO mini bank within your trading statement where you will either be + or Minus that currency.

Haven't found out yet what you do if you want to get your hands on it.

Both are very liquid

Both make for better more enjoyable(and for me) more technically reliable trading than the SPI.
Mind you if there is a trade looking at me in the SPI Ill trade it!

Only been trading these myself for 6 weeks.


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## waza1960

> Hey Waza, how's the trading coming along? Any chance you can keep us posted?



           Well thats it finished as a futures trader for now at the end of week 6 hadn't made enough money so back to private trading.
*Positives:* It was a good experience and I learned heaps and got paid enough to cover my expenses.
*Negatives:*
I didn't feel that I was given enough of a go but commercial realities and business partners whom I didn't meet perhaps were the reason as well as my inability to make the targets.(40 points/week)
  I'm not sure what the business setup was I only worked with one person and he was off sick for 2 weeks and expected to make his own money in the bond market so he was absent for another week and a half trading from home of a night which left me with only 2.5 weeks face to face training.
 The style of trading which I was expected to adhere to was IMO difficult to Learn in that there wasn't any rules based trading but very discretionary.
   But anyway in the end these are just excuses I guess so I look at it as another step on the trading journey.
  Where to from here: well I'm going to apply what I have learnt and trade a micro ASX200 CFD in my IG account and see how I go (see my results from the odd trade in my IG account that I did while I was working which looks reasonably ok) and get back into my systems with ninja etc.


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## Joolean

Thanks for posting your experience Waza. Good stuff.


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## nielsend

Hey Waza, sorry it didn't work out. Did you learn anything, that's the question. If so then it was a worth while experience.


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## quinn123

I lost a few points on that large shakeout this afternoon, got a bit of stop slippage.  I'm glad I'm only playing with practice monies.  It went down pretty quick though, so I'm glad I had a stop!


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## quinn123

There has been some ugly gaps in market lately...  You would need balls of steel to be holding overnight.


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## skyQuake

And now those gaps are gonna get filled!


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## Edwood

haven't looked at SPI for ages... just looking at some charts for the last while appears the opening gap play is still a go-er - any views otherwise?


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