# How I trade



## beamstas (4 May 2009)

A few people have asked me to put up some charts to show how i trade
So i'll stick a few in here so people can come and tell me how bad i am 

I'll simply post a chart if it's a buy, and update it with a little commentary every day, as well as including where i have moved the stop and things like that.

It won't be comprehensive and i won't show all my trades (don't have the time or desire to upload them all). I'll just randomly select a few charts to upload and we will go from there

Ok lets get started.

What indicators i use

Price
Volume
Stochastics

I don't really look at much else. Price and volume are the main two, sometimes the stochastic will catch my eye and i'll have to take a bit of notice

I also like to look at Elliott Wave occasionally.

I firmly believe nobody can predict the market with any degree of certainty. Therefore im not really phased by how i actually enter the market, for all i care i could enter on what the taxi driver says. All i do is try and minimise my losses and let my winners run. I operate with a very low win rate so most charts i post will probably not be winners. 

Ok so lets go with the charts

*IDL*
4th May: Volume dropping in a nice triangle. Will buy on a breakout from the top at $0.20 and place a stop loss at $0.18




*FMG*
4th May: Trade was initiated on this one today. Took an agressive entry due to the nature of the volume and price at the time. I'll continue to walk through this trade. Stop moved to $2.39. 




I'll be adding more charts as i feel like it
And will update my commentary daily

Cheers
Brad


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## db96 (4 May 2009)

G Day Brad

For FMG, do you have a target exit like the upper trend line or will u exit on a trailing stop loss? How much $ will u be risking on this trade? Cheers


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## skyQuake (4 May 2009)

Hey Brad, imo do some backtesting on the stochastics. Many people have thrown away lots of money following it, so you should at least see if it works for FMG. 

It was on Very oversold all the way down from $13. Just be aware that stochs aren't that great when stuff trends.


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## beamstas (4 May 2009)

db96 said:


> G Day Brad
> 
> For FMG, do you have a target exit like the upper trend line or will u exit on a trailing stop loss? How much $ will u be risking on this trade? Cheers




The $ risk for the trade is 10 cents ($2.39-$2.29). My stop loss is at break even now the trade is risk free. The dollar amount risked is 2% of my account

I will let the market take me out of the position with my stop loss and i don't have a profit target. 

If we smash through that gray line on high volume i will most likely give the market a little bit more room to move and try and get on a larger trend.

Cheers
Brad


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## beamstas (4 May 2009)

skyQuake said:


> Hey Brad, imo do some backtesting on the stochastics. Many people have thrown away lots of money following it, so you should at least see if it works for FMG.
> 
> It was on Very oversold all the way down from $13. Just be aware that stochs aren't that great when stuff trends.




I don't use Stochastics as a rule for finding oversold & overbought stocks as you are quite correct they will remain oversold/overbought in a strong trend for a prolonged period of time and don't really help at all

I'll probably show a couple of trades where i use stochastics, but basically im looking for divergence

Cheers
Brad


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## Nero64 (4 May 2009)

Hi Brad, 

What was your buy price on FMG - (Sorry just saw above reply)

Also 

who is your broker?

and I assume since you use tight stop losses you don't look at financial reports or think of holding long term? 

Since you trade short term and on price do you have an expectancy figure?


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## beamstas (4 May 2009)

Nero64 said:


> Hi Brad,
> 
> What was your buy price on FMG - (Sorry just saw above reply)
> 
> ...





Hi Nero

If you take a look at the FMG chart the green line represents my buy price (which was $2.39)

I don't look at Financial Reports or anything like that. For example IDL, i don't actually know the company name, what they do, where they are based and what type of assets they have. All i know is the 3 letter code. 

Currently im using GO Markets but change around quite a bit. In the process of moving over the MF Global.

Cheers
Brad


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## beerwm (4 May 2009)

good stuff Brad,


Do you have any pre-set conditions,

like - only trade ASX200 trades, only energy stocks, or something similiar.

also - are they dependant on the XAO/XJO uptrending lately, or would u have taken these positions throughout last year.


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## beamstas (4 May 2009)

beerwm said:


> good stuff Brad,
> 
> 
> Do you have any pre-set conditions,
> ...




Mainly asx300 but do look outside the square if something comes up
I do take notice of the broader market, but generally ignore it. Alot of the time im trading shares that are under $2 so the broader market doesn't have such a large affect, as it would on something like RIO or BHP
Would have taken all my trades over the last year no matter the timing. 


Cheers Mate
Brad


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## nunthewiser (4 May 2009)

beamstas said:


> In the process of moving over the MF Global.
> 
> Cheers
> Brad




uses MF via etrade platform ....... DMA ... limited number of stocks to trade BUT at least the goal posts dont move


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## beamstas (4 May 2009)

nunthewiser said:


> uses MF via etrade platform ....... DMA ... limited number of stocks to trade BUT at least the goal posts dont move




Exactly right mate
I am on DMA with Go Markets and so far no real complaints though

Here's another one i'll put up

*FLX*
4th May: Using quite an agressive entry on this one due to the strength of the broader market today. Buying on a breach of todays highs $11.66, and a stop loss below the recent low at $10.84. It's a nice little triangle sitting above support




What i am trying to do is weigh up the chance of being stopped out during noise to having a stop too wide that doesn't allow a big enough position. I want to get the stop as close as i can without risking being stopped out on a false probe down. By getting the stop closer i can buy more shares for the same amount of $ risk, therefore when the position does actually go my way i'll be riding it with alot more shares. 

Cheers
Brad


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## ivant (4 May 2009)

Good work Brad!! I will visit this every now and then, see how you are going  Good luck. Hope you get some awesome winners early on in the post!!


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## tech/a (4 May 2009)

> Many people have thrown away lots of money following it, so you should at least see if it works for FMG.




Like most analysis the reason why most fail using it is they simply have no idea how to apply it.
Stochastic is no exception!



> I don't use Stochastics as a rule for finding oversold & overbought stocks as you are quite correct they will remain oversold/overbought in a strong trend for a prolonged period of time and don't really help at all




To the point in question.

OFCOURSE THEY WILL remain in oversold!!!Its a downtrend and you take signals ONLY WITH the trend so your looking for OVERBOUGHT.

Well done Brad on posting up some trades.


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## -Bevo- (4 May 2009)

Great post Brad and good job I like IDL also very nice see what plays out, are you trading US markets yet?

Bevo


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## beamstas (5 May 2009)

-Bevo- said:


> Great post Brad and good job I like IDL also very nice see what plays out, are you trading US markets yet?
> 
> Bevo




Thanks Bevo
Im not trading the US Markets right now but will be moving some money into USD to trade US in the next few months..

Here is one more for the 4th of may

*BEC*
4th May: Nice little pattern with excellent volume traits. I really like yesterdays bar so i will approach this one with an agressive entry. A buy will be triggered if the price moves through $0.17 and i will place a stop loss at $0.145. Not a great deal of liquidity on this one so caution will need to be taken.




I will update my charts at the end of trading so you guys can see how things have panned out.

Cheers
Brad


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## beamstas (5 May 2009)

*5th May*

Not a great day in the market for equities with the gap up in the SPI and then gradually fading out. Current positions in this thread

*IDL*
*5th May:* Breakout confirmed with higher volume. Low close suggests there are still plenty of sellers. Trade entered at $0.20.
*4th May: *Volume dropping in a nice triangle. Will buy on a breakout from the top at $0.20 and place a stop loss at $0.18







*FMG*
*5th May:* Still hoping for a break of the triangle on increased volume.
*4th May:* Trade was initiated on this one today. Took an agressive entry due to the nature of the volume and price at the time. I'll continue to walk through this trade. Stop moved to $2.39. 






*FLX*
*5th May:* Very high gap up for FLX, with the price just fading lower all day. Trade entered at $11.89, insted of $11.66 which was planned. This takes the risk from 2% of portfolio to 2.56%. As we don't want to risk that much we can either sell 22% of our position which will bring our risk back to 2%, or move the stop up and cut out 50% of the risk. I'd be inclined to move the stop up to $11.25, which will save on brokerage and still give it a chance to move in our favour with a full position. No-one knows what the market will do tomorrow so i'll just give this one every chance to get on with it.
*4th May:* Using quite an agressive entry on this one due to the strength of the broader market today. Buying on a breach of todays highs $11.66, and a stop loss below the recent low at $10.84. It's a nice little triangle sitting above support






*BEC*
*5th May:* No changes for this one yet
*4th May: *Nice little pattern with excellent volume traits. I really like yesterdays bar so i will approach this one with an agressive entry. A buy will be triggered if the price moves through $0.17 and i will place a stop loss at $0.145. Not a great deal of liquidity on this one so caution will need to be taken.






Cheers
Brad


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## beamstas (5 May 2009)

Ok guys
Here is one i'll refer to as "bread and butter" 

*ASB*
*5th May: *I am expecting the broader market to roll over in the next few days, so i am quite bearish on equities. This one is really asking to be shorted. The price will normally fall out the bottom of a rising wedge in an uptrending market, so we can expect with reasonable probability that the prices should probe lower in the near future. Another thing we really have to stand up and take notice of is the Type-A bearish divergeance, the stock has made a higher high but the divergeance hasn't. This is a prime example of using Stochastics as a trading indicator. We can expect with reasonable probability that the recent high will not be crossed. Another thing i'd like to bring to attention is the Strong Resistance shown at around the $2.70 mark, (if you don't believe me take a look at the weekly chart). I really like this setup, and with a risk of just 14 cents per share it is looking excellent.




I won't post any more charts right now as it may get out of control

Cheers
Brad


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## tech/a (5 May 2009)

ASB
Nice
Click to expand


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## SGB (5 May 2009)

I'll take a long at the $2.00 200 DMA mark


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## db96 (5 May 2009)

beamstas said:


> Ok guys
> Here is one i'll refer to as "bread and butter"
> 
> *ASB*
> ...




Hi Brad

Which Cfd provider will let u short ASB(austal)? Thanks


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## tech/a (5 May 2009)

Really
I know your Joshing!

Click to expand


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## beamstas (5 May 2009)

db96 said:


> Hi Brad
> 
> Which Cfd provider will let u short ASB(austal)? Thanks




Not sure
Im with GO Markets right now
And they will

Cheers
Brad


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## It's Snake Pliskin (6 May 2009)

tech/a said:


> Really
> I know your Joshing!
> 
> Click to expand



Some good questions raised there Tech.


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## johnnyg (6 May 2009)

Nice thread Brad, will watch with interest. With most set-ups being long at the moment do you put an importance on hedging your long positions with a short or 2 (in this case ASB and as long as technically they look good)?


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## beamstas (6 May 2009)

johnnyg said:


> Nice thread Brad, will watch with interest. With most set-ups being long at the moment do you put an importance on hedging your long positions with a short or 2 (in this case ASB and as long as technically they look good)?




Ideally you'd have half long and half short positions in your portfolio at any one time. 

I am not posting all trades in this thread, just a few random charts. If i placed them all there would be too many charts to keep updating daily.

Cheers
Brad


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## beamstas (6 May 2009)

tech/a said:


> Really
> I know your Joshing!
> 
> Click to expand




You are forgetting to overlay my 36 day moving average on to the chart  You'll see


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## nomore4s (6 May 2009)

Good thread Brad, some good practical application here.


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## BBand (6 May 2009)

Hi Brad,
Thanks for offering your time and experience.

This ongoing live trade disclosure will demonstrate how to forward test a setup to prove its viability in the current market conditions (for those who are relatively new to trading). Nice to see you also offer reasons why you consider taking the trade

Well done, looking forward to seeing your exits.

Keep up the good work

Peter


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## Mr J (6 May 2009)

tech/a said:


> Like most analysis the reason why most fail using it is they simply have no idea how to apply it.
> Stochastic is no exception!




Stochastics use the same data as already displayed on the chart, so I just stick with the chart. I'm sure some would find stochastics useful as a visual aid though.


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## tech/a (6 May 2009)

Mr J said:


> Stochastics use the same data as already displayed on the chart, so I just stick with the chart. I'm sure some would find stochastics useful as a visual aid though.





Visuals fine.
When you look at photo of a plane your a long way from flying it.


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## beamstas (6 May 2009)

tech/a said:


> Visuals fine.
> When you look at photo of a plane your a long way from flying it.




Exactly
Alot of people look at an indicator and think that's all they need to know.
But to use one properly you really have to be well versed in why the indicator does what it does and how you can use that to your advantage. 

Cheers
Brad


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## Mr J (6 May 2009)

tech/a said:


> Visuals fine.
> When you look at photo of a plane your a long way from flying it.




But when you see the photo, you'll at least know to fly the right way up :.

Your analogy could be intepreted a number of ways. I'll go with the one I prefer, that being that trying to use stochastics without understanding the underlying mechanics is not beneficial. I would go a step further and state that stochastics and any other off-chart-based (i.e. not trendlines etc) indicator is unnecessary since it already appears in the price action.


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## beamstas (6 May 2009)

*ASB*
*6th May:* No changes in this one yet
*5th May:* I am expecting the broader market to roll over in the next few days, so i am quite bearish on equities. This one is really asking to be shorted. The price will normally fall out the bottom of a rising wedge in an uptrending market, so we can expect with reasonable probability that the prices should probe lower in the near future. Another thing we really have to stand up and take notice of is the Type-A bearish divergeance, the stock has made a higher high but the divergeance hasn't. This is a prime example of using Stochastics as a trading indicator. We can expect with reasonable probability that the recent high will not be crossed. Another thing i'd like to bring to attention is the Strong Resistance shown at around the $2.70 mark, (if you don't believe me take a look at the weekly chart). I really like this setup, and with a risk of just 14 cents per share it is looking excellent.








*BEC*
*6th May:* No changes for this one yet. Continuing Sideways
*5th May:* No changes for this one yet
*4th May:* Nice little pattern with excellent volume traits. I really like yesterdays bar so i will approach this one with an agressive entry. A buy will be triggered if the price moves through $0.17 and i will place a stop loss at $0.145. Not a great deal of liquidity on this one so caution will need to be taken.







*IDL*
*6th May:* This one is continuing nicely
*5th May:* Breakout confirmed with higher volume. Low close suggests there are still plenty of sellers. Trade entered at $0.20.
*4th May:* Volume dropping in a nice triangle. Will buy on a breakout from the top at $0.20 and place a stop loss at $0.18








*FMG*
*6th May:* Break-even stop activated
*5th May:* Still hoping for a break of the triangle on increased volume.
*4th May:* Trade was initiated on this one today. Took an agressive entry due to the nature of the volume and price at the time. I'll continue to walk through this trade. Stop moved to $2.39. 







*FLX*
*6th May:* Stop loss activated at $11.25 for a small loss. This one looks good still and may re-enter in the future
*5th May:* Very high gap up for FLX, with the price just fading lower all day. Trade entered at $11.89, insted of $11.66 which was planned. This takes the risk from 2% of portfolio to 2.56%. As we don't want to risk that much we can either sell 22% of our position which will bring our risk back to 2%, or move the stop up and cut out 50% of the risk. I'd be inclined to move the stop up to $11.25, which will save on brokerage and still give it a chance to move in our favour with a full position. No-one knows what the market will do tomorrow so i'll just give this one every chance to get on with it.
*4th May:* Using quite an agressive entry on this one due to the strength of the broader market today. Buying on a breach of todays highs $11.66, and a stop loss below the recent low at $10.84. It's a nice little triangle sitting above support


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## It's Snake Pliskin (7 May 2009)

Mr J said:


> I would go a step further and state that stochastics and any other off-chart-based (i.e. not trendlines etc) indicator is unnecessary since it already appears in the price action.



It seems contemporary for some to say price action only is the way of the lords of profitability. I disagree totally and say other "things" need consultation, though not total reliance on. If it makes sense why disregrad it?


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## Mr J (7 May 2009)

It's Snake Pliskin said:


> It seems contemporary for some to say price action only is the way of the lords of profitability. I disagree totally and say other "things" need consultation, though not total reliance on. If it makes sense why disregrad it?




I didn't say that at all. I just that typical indicators (technical indicators) are already shown in price action. Stochastics, RSI, MACD, Bollinger Bands etc are nothing special, they're just derived from formulae that use the chart data.

There are many ways to trade, and I'm not suggesting one is superior than another. What I am suggesting is that technical indicators seek to intepret price action, and they don't provide anything that price action itself doesn't provide.


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## It's Snake Pliskin (7 May 2009)

Mr J said:


> I didn't say that at all. I just that typical indicators (technical indicators) are already shown in price action. Stochastics, RSI, MACD, Bollinger Bands etc are nothing special, they're just derived from formulae that use the chart data.
> 
> There are many ways to trade, and I'm not suggesting one is superior than another. What I am suggesting is that technical indicators seek to intepret price action, and they don't provide anything that price action itself doesn't provide.



Mr J, please don't take my comments as an attack on you or anything such as that. It was just a comment on the contemporary derision of indicators. I am not saying you said anything, otherwise I would have said what you said.
Cheers...


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## MRC & Co (7 May 2009)

Jesus, this is like being at thechartist.

Out of interest, you didn't happen to start over there did you?


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## sammy84 (7 May 2009)

MRC & Co said:


> Jesus, this is like being at thechartist.
> 
> Out of interest, you didn't happen to start over there did you?




I was waiting for someone to point this out


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## MRC & Co (7 May 2009)

sammy84 said:


> I was waiting for someone to point this out




As was I, but no-one did, so I thought I would ask...........


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## tech/a (7 May 2009)

Just think about this a minute.

If that was the same as "The Chartist" dont you think it would attract the attention of Mr Radge.

After all clients like myself pay for access to Mr Radge and his thinking.

Havent seen any of those guessing on "The Other side" behind the Cloak of darkness VIP area.


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## beamstas (7 May 2009)

I make a point not to post anything similar to what i've seen of Nick. That would be a cheap rip off both of him and what subscribers pay for. All charts are *my own analysis*, and nothing on here is affiliated with Nick Radge's The Chartist in any way. 

Nick offers an in depth analysis of many charts, as well as putting 20+ years of trading experience on the table. 

This thread entails charts posted with my own (limited experience) analysis. This analysis is based off what i have learnt from many different people, but it is heavily weighted on what i have learnt off Tech/A.

Alot of people have asked for live charts around this place, and as far as i know this is the only way to post them

*If Nick saw in any way this thread impeded on what he offers at The Chartist i would ask this to be removed immediately.* 

I will not be updating the charts tonight


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## MRC & Co (7 May 2009)

I wasn't implying this IS Nick's analysis.

I was asking if one of the first stops in your learning was at thechartist?  (Nothing wrong with it, I learnt a lot there also).


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## beamstas (7 May 2009)

MRC & Co said:


> I wasn't implying this IS Nick's analysis.
> 
> I was asking if one of the first stops in your learning was at thechartist?  (Nothing wrong with it, I learnt a lot there also).




Curtis Arnold
Nick Radge

&

Whatever you call it that tech/a does


I'll update this thread once everything is cleared up. I don't want to be stepping on anyones toes.

Cheers
Brad


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## MRC & Co (7 May 2009)

tech/a said:


> Havent seen any of those guessing on "The Other side" behind the Cloak of darkness VIP area.




Don't get it?

Beamstas, I'm sure your not stepping on any toes, if their your own set-ups, then that's fine.  Just an observation on my behalf.


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## ColB (7 May 2009)

> Originally posted by MRC
> 
> Jesus, this is like being at the chartist.
> 
> Out of interest, you didn't happen to start over there did you?




Couldn't care less where you learnt your craft Brad and I can only speak for myself but I'm guessing a lot of others at ASF follow your thread with a great deal of interest.  

You put yourself on the line win lose or draw for all to see.

Good Luck and keep it going.

I look forward to your updated charts TOMORROW


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## SGB (7 May 2009)

beamstas said:


> You are forgetting to overlay my 36 day moving average on to the chart  You'll see




plus your Stochastics


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## beamstas (7 May 2009)

SGB said:


> plus your Stochastics




I don't even use a 36 day moving average 

I will update the charts later tonight 

Cheers
Brad


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## SGB (7 May 2009)

beamstas said:


> I don't even use a 36 day moving average
> 
> I will update the charts later tonight
> 
> ...




Why then post it?


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## tech/a (7 May 2009)

He was making a point.


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## skc (7 May 2009)

beamstas said:


> Curtis Arnold
> Nick Radge
> 
> &
> ...




The only thing Brad's copying from the Chartist is the format in which he presents the information. I am sure Mr Radge shouldn't care that much about this. But if he does you can always change the font, the line colours etc... In fact, Radge once said in a seminar that he roams various forums just to see what other's are looking at - and sometimes that give him set up ideas as well.

Well done Brad for a great thread and thanks for sharing your research. 

P.S. Tech/A offer education these days?


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## beamstas (7 May 2009)

*ASB*
*7th May:* Scratch this one for now. Looks like we can get a better entry in the near future
*6th May:* No changes in this one yet
*5th May:* I am expecting the broader market to roll over in the next few days, so i am quite bearish on equities. This one is really asking to be shorted. The price will normally fall out the bottom of a rising wedge in an uptrending market, so we can expect with reasonable probability that the prices should probe lower in the near future. Another thing we really have to stand up and take notice of is the Type-A bearish divergeance, the stock has made a higher high but the divergeance hasn't. This is a prime example of using Stochastics as a trading indicator. We can expect with reasonable probability that the recent high will not be crossed. Another thing i'd like to bring to attention is the Strong Resistance shown at around the $2.70 mark, (if you don't believe me take a look at the weekly chart). I really like this setup, and with a risk of just 14 cents per share it is looking excellent.








*BEC*
*7th May:* Well would you look at that. Looks like sellers are liking this one above 17cents. This is because the price managed to break out but was forced back by sellers who were happy enough to exit above 17c. Trade initiated at 17c but i'll keep a close eye on this one in the next few days, in case it tries to come back further. 
*6th May:* No changes for this one yet. Continuing Sideways
*5th May:* No changes for this one yet
*4th May: *Nice little pattern with excellent volume traits. I really like yesterdays bar so i will approach this one with an agressive entry. A buy will be triggered if the price moves through $0.17 and i will place a stop loss at $0.145. Not a great deal of liquidity on this one so caution will need to be taken.






*IDL*
*7th May:* We have reached 1R (20c-18c=2c)..(20c+2c=22c), so ill move the stop to breakeven now. This one doesn't look like coming back.
*6th May: *This one is continuing nicely
*5th May: *Breakout confirmed with higher volume. Low close suggests there are still plenty of sellers. Trade entered at $0.20.
*4th May:* Volume dropping in a nice triangle. Will buy on a breakout from the top at $0.20 and place a stop loss at $0.18


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## tech/a (7 May 2009)

> Tech/A offer education these days?




I get a few copy cats from time to time.
I'm OK with it.


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## beamstas (7 May 2009)

skc said:


> P.S. Tech/A offer education these days?




Nope
But there are many little tid-bits i have picked up from him

Someone doesn't have to "offer education" to learn from them! 

Cheers
Brad


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## beamstas (7 May 2009)

Looks like i can't edit my post with charts
I accidently posted the BEC chart twice

here is the IDL one for anyone following


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## beamstas (8 May 2009)

*BEC*
*8th May:* Todays bar is a disgrace. "True weakness is shown in upbars" is a quote that comes to mind. Better keep an eye on this!
*7th May:* Well would you look at that. Looks like sellers are liking this one above 17cents. This is because the price managed to break out but was forced back by sellers who were happy enough to exit above 17c. Trade initiated at 17c but i'll keep a close eye on this one in the next few days, in case it tries to come back further. 
*6th May:* No changes for this one yet. Continuing Sideways
*5th May:* No changes for this one yet
*4th May:* Nice little pattern with excellent volume traits. I really like yesterdays bar so i will approach this one with an agressive entry. A buy will be triggered if the price moves through $0.17 and i will place a stop loss at $0.145. Not a great deal of liquidity on this one so caution will need to be taken.




*IDL*
*8th May:* Going strong, i like this one 
*7th May:* We have reached 1R (20c-18c=2c)..(20c+2c=22c), so ill move the stop to breakeven now. This one doesn't look like coming back.
*6th May:* This one is continuing nicely
*5th May:* Breakout confirmed with higher volume. Low close suggests there are still plenty of sellers. Trade entered at $0.20.
*4th May:* Volume dropping in a nice triangle. Will buy on a breakout from the top at $0.20 and place a stop loss at $0.18






Account Performance since thread started





Cheers
Brad


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## johnnyg (8 May 2009)

Abit of hindsight trading here Brad, but what do you think about FMG and today's price action. Were you a little bit to aggressive with the stop and didn't give the trade enough room to 'move'?


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## beamstas (8 May 2009)

johnnyg said:


> Abit of hindsight trading here Brad, but what do you think about FMG and today's price action. Were you a little bit to aggressive with the stop and didn't give the trade enough room to 'move'?




No hindsight trading by me so far 

But the FMG.. Yes, i was too fast moving my stop up. Missed todays price action.. which is the difference between closing at a $0 position and having $5000 more in unrealised p/l.

We are all great traders in hindsight  Im a little ticked off that the price only reached 2.39.. the exact price of my stop.

Here is FMG and the move i missed if anyone is interested




Cheers
Brad


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## skc (8 May 2009)

beamstas said:


> *BEC*
> *8th May:* Todays bar is a disgrace. "True weakness is shown in upbars" is a quote that comes to mind. Better keep an eye on this!




Check out the 5th bar in Jan. That up bar was pretty sweet.




beamstas said:


> Account Performance since thread started




Brad, you trading these for real or just paper? Not that it matters for the purpose of the thread - just like to know that's all. 




johnnyg said:


> Abit of hindsight trading here Brad, but what do you think about FMG and today's price action. Were you a little bit to aggressive with the stop and didn't give the trade enough room to 'move'?




I think Johnny was just referring to his own hindsight comment...


----------



## beamstas (8 May 2009)

skc said:


> Check out the 5th bar in Jan. That up bar was pretty sweet.




That was a bullish bar
Todays bar was bearish
Take a look at the volume!




skc said:


> Brad, you trading these for real or just paper? Not that it matters for the purpose of the thread - just like to know that's all.




I trade them for real
Right now any new reccomendations will not be traded because im in the process of changing brokers! 




skc said:


> I think Johnny was just referring to his own hindsight comment...





Yep. Just making sure.

Thanks for the reply skc

Cheers
Brad


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## johnnyg (8 May 2009)

beamstas said:


> Yep. Just making sure.




Yes of course, I was just referring to self-analyzing what happened after the trade was stopped out.

I'm currently looking into the idea that with each 1R move in my direction I move the stop 1R closer. I'm concerned though that the stop placing will be to aggressive and get me caught up in the 'noise' of the trade. 

So much testing to do.....


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## kam75 (9 May 2009)

beamstas said:


> I firmly believe nobody can predict the market with any degree of certainty. Therefore im not really phased by how i actually enter the market, for all i care i could enter on what the taxi driver says. All i do is try and minimise my losses and let my winners run. I operate with a very low win rate so most charts i post will probably not be winners.




Yes, but correct timing can dramatically improve your Win to Loss ratio, especially if you cut the losses extra short.


----------



## beamstas (9 May 2009)

Jonnyg, talking about self-analysing, Looks like i've actually had two really crappy trades in this thread so far
FMG & FLX

Of course, i never expect over a 50% win rate, so i can't complain. 




kam75; cutting losses short is risk management  Im not going to get into this discussion again and i agree with what you are saying

Cheers
Brad


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## nomore4s (9 May 2009)

johnnyg said:


> I'm currently looking into the idea that with each 1R move in my direction I move the stop 1R closer. I'm concerned though that the stop placing will be to aggressive and get me caught up in the 'noise' of the trade.
> 
> So much testing to do.....




I use something similar to this. If the trade moves 1R in my direction I move the stop to B/E after that though I tend to give the trade more room to move and use technical levels to place my stops.


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## skc (9 May 2009)

nomore4s said:


> I use something similar to this. If the trade moves 1R in my direction I move the stop to B/E after that though I tend to give the trade more room to move and use technical levels to place my stops.




Definitely depends. Some trade entries are agressive so moving to break even sooner rather than later could be wise. However, I have used tight b/e stops on some recent breakouts which end up being perfectly tagged before the share resume its upward movement.


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## fmz (9 May 2009)

Great post, thanks for sharing your analysis, please keep it updated.


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## beamstas (9 May 2009)

fmz said:


> Great post, thanks for sharing your analysis, please keep it updated.




No problem 

Some people like 1R to move to BE, some people like 2R. Obviously the more open profits you can handle giving back the less you are going to get stopped out on market noise. I like to not set myself on anything, but generally by 2R my stop is at break even. 

I like to look at the Volume and Spread every day, *for example* if it is an upthrust bar on the breakout i'll look to halve the risk. 

Cheers
Brad


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## MRC & Co (9 May 2009)

Do you ever pyramid, if so, on a pullback or try on another breakout from another similar pattern?

Do you ever hit a trade with more size (more % risk), or you believe every trade has the same probability of being successful?


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## beamstas (9 May 2009)

*PBG*
*8th May:* This ones had a nice push up from a base with high volume, into another consolodation. What really grabbed my attention on this one is the very last bar in the pattern. Im really liking it so i'll buy it on a breach of yesterdays highs and put the stop loss right under yesterdays lows, which is a very agressive entry. This is an example of using both Volume and Price Spread to look for an entry




Cheers
Brad


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## beamstas (9 May 2009)

MRC & Co said:


> Do you ever pyramid, if so, on a pullback or try on another breakout from another similar pattern?
> 
> Do you ever hit a trade with more size (more % risk), or you believe every trade has the same probability of being successful?




1. Sometime's i'll pyramid, usually from another pattern forming or just splitting a position up into pieces and entering it each time it makes another multiple of R, dragging the stop up to the last level. I don't do the latter very often because i don't like paying the extra commisions but on a very large account it would be quite useful.

2: I Never hit a trade with more size, I've never really thought about that actually, do you do it and does it work for you? It's something i've never considered, i normally just approach each trade equally 

Cheers
Brad


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## MRC & Co (9 May 2009)

I hit a trade sometimes with upto 10x more size than other trades, depending on my conviction (usually based on a pattern I particularly like and a good feeling ) and how fast I think the move will be.  If I think a trend is about to accelerate quick, I will try give it a helping hand! 

Just my beliefs and a different view perhaps, than the norm here.


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## johnnyg (9 May 2009)

beamstas said:


> Jonnyg, talking about self-analysing, Looks like i've actually had two really crappy trades in this thread so far
> FMG & FLX
> 
> Cheers
> Brad




I don't know if id call them crappy. Maybe just to aggressive on the movement of the stop. I see myself doing similar things. 

In regards to increasing risk % if you had 100 trade samples, with only 30-40 being profitable, perhaps you could look deeper into the 30-40 profitable trades and see if one pattern/analysis sticks out more then others whether its a consolidation pattern breakout along with VSA/buying or selling after a certain % swing from a high or low/is the winning % higher in small cap stocks/mid cap stocks or larger cap stocks?


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## beamstas (9 May 2009)

MRC & Co said:


> I hit a trade sometimes with upto 10x more size than other trades, depending on my conviction (usually based on a pattern I particularly like and a good feeling ) and how fast I think the move will be.  If I think a trend is about to accelerate quick, I will try give it a helping hand!
> 
> Just my beliefs and a different view perhaps, than the norm here.




Good work, i'll keep that in the back of my mind 
I guess the more experienced you are the better you can make that judgement call.

I am not very experienced myself so what i think is a "ripper" buy could be an absolute dog!

But the more expereined guys like yourself who have seen the same pattern 1000's of times could probably jump in there with a bigger position knowing that they have seen the market do the same thing in the past! 

I'll definitly have to consider this in the future

Cheers MRC & Thanks for the advice
Brad


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## MRC & Co (9 May 2009)

beamstas said:


> I'll definitly have to consider this in the future




Yes, I think it is something to _consider_, regardless of who else says what.  May work for you one day, may not, but worth the consideration nonetheless.  Oh, BTW, I don't hit it with all the size at once generally, I pyramid aggressively, i.e more size every single tick as it moves my way.


----------



## beamstas (9 May 2009)

johnnyg said:


> I don't know if id call them crappy. Maybe just to aggressive on the movement of the stop. I see myself doing similar things.
> 
> In regards to increasing risk % if you had 100 trade samples, with only 30-40 being profitable, perhaps you could look deeper into the 30-40 profitable trades and see if one pattern/analysis sticks out more then others whether its a consolidation pattern breakout along with VSA/buying or selling after a certain % swing from a high or low/is the winning % higher in small cap stocks/mid cap stocks or larger cap stocks?




I can see what you mean here johnnyg, 

I just want to keep things simple


----------



## ThingyMajiggy (9 May 2009)

Keep it up Brad, I find it interesting following things like this.


----------



## BBand (10 May 2009)

Hi Brad,
My aim is to not let a winning trade become a loser, so I tend to use tight stops - which means that sometimes I get taken out on a simple retracement (before the move is over)

We can never be sure when the move is probably over - so what I do is this:
If I was initially long, and get taken out on a pull back, I put another buy order in at the same price as that which I was stopped out - so if my exit was just a retracement - when price swings around on the way back it will hit my new buy order and I'm back in the trade

Commissions? if you with the likes of IB, then they are negligible.

May be useful?

Peter


----------



## simoncar (10 May 2009)

I entered a trade in IDL 29/4/09 Beamstas. I couldn't find my calculator so mentally worked out my risk for the trade based on my position sizing model. Result.......i incorrectly bought x no. of shares. i purchased 10,000 shares instead of 100,000. Missed out on $5500 open profit. Did the same thing on PEM. Purchased 7000 instead of 70,000 missed out on $12,000 open profit. I don't mind taking losses on my trades....I am totally unemotional whether I take a profit or loss as long as I follow my trading rules. I know my system has a positive expectancy and I will/do make money so losses don't bother me at all. But I am so so annoyed with myself for making these 2 totally stupid errors. I feel like  I momentarily slipped back to being a beginner again. A smart man learns from his mistakes.....a really smart man learns from others as well.


----------



## beamstas (10 May 2009)

simoncar said:


> I entered a trade in IDL 29/4/09 Beamstas. I couldn't find my calculator so mentally worked out my risk for the trade based on my position sizing model. Result.......i incorrectly bought x no. of shares. i purchased 10,000 shares instead of 100,000. Missed out on $5500 open profit. Did the same thing on PEM. Purchased 7000 instead of 70,000 missed out on $12,000 open profit. I don't mind taking losses on my trades....I am totally unemotional whether I take a profit or loss as long as I follow my trading rules. I know my system has a positive expectancy and I will/do make money so losses don't bother me at all. But I am so so annoyed with myself for making these 2 totally stupid errors. I feel like  I momentarily slipped back to being a beginner again. A smart man learns from his mistakes.....a really smart man learns from others as well.




I'd suggest you use your calculator or maybe set up an excel sheet that will work out your position sizes based on risking a certain % of your account. I am not sure how you are position sizing as both figures are round figures so i can only assume you make up the figure of how many shares you buy in your head. Take a look at using Fixed Fractional Position Sizing if you want to stop making these mistakes



BBand said:


> Hi Brad,
> My aim is to not let a winning trade become a loser, so I tend to use tight stops - which means that sometimes I get taken out on a simple retracement (before the move is over)
> 
> We can never be sure when the move is probably over - so what I do is this:
> ...




This is something i will often do, if i am using an agressive entry i will re-enter if my entry criterea is once again met. I really don't enjoy being taken out on market noise though. I believe if your stops will not allow general market noise then they are too tight and you are not giving the position enough room to move in your favour. I use the same stop loss for every position unless i feel i need to tighten the screws because the volume and price is showing bearishness



ThingyMajiggy said:


> Keep it up Brad, I find it interesting following things like this.




Thanks Sam


----------



## BBand (10 May 2009)

Hi Brad

Re entry:
I suppose this methodology could be used for initial (at start) trade re-entry - personally I find the initial entry the most dangerous part of a trade - for me it iether works or it doesn't.
Infact the best trades are those that do not follow through where lots of traders are trapped - if you know how to trade them!

If you already have a "young" trend and get stopped out on a retracement, then get a ligitimate signal to get back in - you have a high probabil;ity trade in the direction of the trend.

Stops define how much you give back when your initial analysis is no longer valid, how much you give back is your decision

PS If you don't like market noise - move up a timeframe - less trades, potential for higher returns

Peter 

Hope the above makes sense, my little grand daughter has just arrived and she keeps asking questions, and she comes first


----------



## beamstas (10 May 2009)

BBand said:


> Hi Brad
> 
> Re entry:
> I suppose this methodology could be used for initial (at start) trade re-entry - personally I find the initial entry the most dangerous part of a trade - for me it iether works or it doesn't.
> ...





I see what you are saying Peter,
Like i said, i will re-enter if i see a legitimate entry where i can put an entry and a stop loss. FMG is an example of something i could have re-entered. 

I'll use a re-entry if i feel the position is still viable. 

Im too young to open an IB account but i see what you are saying about Commissions. 

I trade EOD currently so my stops usually have sufficient room for the trend to develop. I understand that the market will not go directly up, so this in mind i allow enough for it to retrace for a certain number of days.

I havn't actually looked at using tighter stops and re-entering alot, but it's something i'll have a look at 

Cheers Peter,
Brad


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## simoncar (10 May 2009)

Beamstas, I do use fixed fractional position sizing. I just rounded the figures for ease of people reading my post. I also have a few different accounts with different internet brokers  therefore my position sizing is based on the capital I have with that broker. I also use a spreadsheet for trade management and I check each morning on available capital for trades and risk parameters. I enter a trade with this knowledge in mind and then I update my spreadsheets. It was just a stupid stupid mathematical error that if I ever repeat again I will force myself to go back to school with my 5 year old son.


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## beamstas (11 May 2009)

*BEC*
*9th May:* Nice move up today
*8th May:* Todays bar is a disgrace. "True weakness is shown in upbars" is a quote that comes to mind. Better keep an eye on this!
*7th May:* Well would you look at that. Looks like sellers are liking this one above 17cents. This is because the price managed to break out but was forced back by sellers who were happy enough to exit above 17c. Trade initiated at 17c but i'll keep a close eye on this one in the next few days, in case it tries to come back further. 
*6th May: *No changes for this one yet. Continuing Sideways
*5th May:* No changes for this one yet
*4th May:* Nice little pattern with excellent volume traits. I really like yesterdays bar so i will approach this one with an agressive entry. A buy will be triggered if the price moves through $0.17 and i will place a stop loss at $0.145. Not a great deal of liquidity on this one so caution will need to be taken.







*IDL*
*9th May:* This is a terrible day for IDL which was going strong, it is a common "up thrust bar", which indicates weakness. What makes this even more bearish is that it has come after an effort to rise. Put the stop right up to $0.235 on this one. I'll give it the benefit of the doubt to get on with it tomorrow but things arn't looking good for this one at all
*8th May: *Going strong, i like this one 
*7th May:* We have reached 1R (20c-18c=2c)..(20c+2c=22c), so ill move the stop to breakeven now. This one doesn't look like coming back.
*6th May:* This one is continuing nicely
*5th May: *Breakout confirmed with higher volume. Low close suggests there are still plenty of sellers. Trade entered at $0.20.
*4th May: *Volume dropping in a nice triangle. Will buy on a breakout from the top at $0.20 and place a stop loss at $0.18







RE: FMG
This really pisses me off. This one is now at 6.8R, after it retraced to my breakeven stop to the cent, before moving on




Cheers
Brad


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## tech/a (11 May 2009)

Brad.
Some nice analysis there.



> 8th May: Todays bar is a disgrace. "True weakness is shown in upbars" is a quote that comes to mind. Better keep an eye on this!




Was actually a good bar.
The bar before rejected the high on good volume.
This bar made the high on light volume indicating a lack in conviction of sellers.




> RE: FMG
> This really pisses me off.




It shouldnt!
You stuck to your plan.
What you missed was the bar that took you out was on extremely low volume.
You have now learnt to have a re entry strategy which in this case would have been the break of the triangle.

Good work all the same.


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## beamstas (12 May 2009)

*BEC*
*12th May:* Upthrust bar, sign up weakness. Stop to 0.18
*11th May:* Nice move up today
*8th May:* Todays bar is a disgrace. "True weakness is shown in upbars" is a quote that comes to mind. Better keep an eye on this!
*7th May:* Well would you look at that. Looks like sellers are liking this one above 17cents. This is because the price managed to break out but was forced back by sellers who were happy enough to exit above 17c. Trade initiated at 17c but i'll keep a close eye on this one in the next few days, in case it tries to come back further. 
*6th May: *No changes for this one yet. Continuing Sideways
*5th May:* No changes for this one yet
*4th May:* Nice little pattern with excellent volume traits. I really like yesterdays bar so i will approach this one with an agressive entry. A buy will be triggered if the price moves through $0.17 and i will place a stop loss at $0.145. Not a great deal of liquidity on this one so caution will need to be taken.






*IDL*
*12th May:* Stop Activated ($0.235)
*11th May: *This is a terrible day for IDL which was going strong, it is a common "up thrust bar", which indicates weakness. What makes this even more bearish is that it has come after an effort to rise. Put the stop right up to $0.235 on this one. I'll give it the benefit of the doubt to get on with it tomorrow but things arn't looking good for this one at all
*8th May: *Going strong, i like this one 
*7th May: *We have reached 1R (20c-18c=2c)..(20c+2c=22c), so ill move the stop to breakeven now. This one doesn't look like coming back.
*6th May:* This one is continuing nicely
*5th May:* Breakout confirmed with higher volume. Low close suggests there are still plenty of sellers. Trade entered at $0.20.
*4th May:* Volume dropping in a nice triangle. Will buy on a breakout from the top at $0.20 and place a stop loss at $0.18




Account balance...


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## jonojpsg (12 May 2009)

Hey beams, just wanted to say thanks for being so upfront with your trading   It certainly is inspiring to see someone willing to bare their trades to us all.

So not a bad return for, what, 9 days trading?


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## beamstas (12 May 2009)

jonojpsg said:


> Hey beams, just wanted to say thanks for being so upfront with your trading   It certainly is inspiring to see someone willing to bare their trades to us all.
> 
> So not a bad return for, what, 9 days trading?




Yeah it's around 9 days i guess 
Thanks for the post

I'll upload some more charts in a few more days for some more buys 

Cheers
Brad


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## rja2439 (21 May 2009)

jonojpsg said:


> Hey beams, just wanted to say thanks for being so upfront with your trading   It certainly is inspiring to see someone willing to bare their trades to us all.
> 
> So not a bad return for, what, 9 days trading?




have to mirror your thoughts here jono... this is great for us newbies to see - much appreciated Brad  keep up the good work..


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## beamstas (21 May 2009)

I've stopped updating this but i can keep updating it if people want.. 

Cheers


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## rja2439 (21 May 2009)

not sure about everyone else, but I'd sure like to see it... i think it's a fantastic thread!


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## rja2439 (21 May 2009)

Brad,

you've probably already said this somewhere on this forum before, but are you a full time trader, or do you also work?

Cheers,
Rob


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## beamstas (21 May 2009)

rja2439 said:


> Brad,
> 
> you've probably already said this somewhere on this forum before, but are you a full time trader, or do you also work?
> 
> ...




I work part time as an accountant, rest of my time is spent at uni, im doing a business degree 
Trading is just a side

Cheers
Brad


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## jonojpsg (21 May 2009)

Yeah keep it up beams, as long as you've got the time!


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## rja2439 (21 May 2009)

beamstas said:


> I work part time as an accountant, rest of my time is spent at uni, im doing a business degree
> Trading is just a side
> 
> Cheers
> Brad




I reckon I'll be in the same boat in terms of hours spent trading when I get up and running - currently work 45-50hrs a week as an engineer.  Presently I've been researching the ins and outs of trading and I'm slowly learning but definitely want to be confident before I jump in.  

One question - if my analysis and trades will be done at night after work, am I wrong guessing that I do not need software that delivers a live feed, or even 5-10min feeds?  My time frames for trading will be rounded to days, not minutes or hours...


----------



## beamstas (21 May 2009)

rja2439 said:


> I reckon I'll be in the same boat in terms of hours spent trading when I get up and running - currently work 45-50hrs a week as an engineer.  Presently I've been researching the ins and outs of trading and I'm slowly learning but definitely want to be confident before I jump in.
> 
> One question - if my analysis and trades will be done at night after work, am I wrong guessing that I do not need software that delivers a live feed, or even 5-10min feeds?  My time frames for trading will be rounded to days, not minutes or hours...




Yep
I don't use any Live Date feeds at all
I just enter my trades into IB at night, with my stop loss and let the market do the rest 
Don't even need to look at the market until the next night


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## liquidmaker (23 May 2009)

Brad,

Excellent post mate one of the best i have read on here. Really enjoyed reading it. I have been trading for six months and i have got some really good tips about money management, discipline and volume analysis from your trades and explanations.

I hope you can continue to post if you have some spare time beacuse i would love to read more.


Liquid


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## beamstas (25 May 2009)

*SGN*
*25th May:* This one is forming a nice triangle. I'd really like to wait for this one to break the upside before buying, simply because of the most recent bar on friday. The high volume is a bit worrying so i'll be conservative here. I'll leave this in my watch list to see if it is worth a buy. An alternative from an EW point of view is that we have seen a large wave 1. The problem with this is Wave 2 can never be a triangle, so we don't want prices to push any higher. One thing i like is the confluence between wave A and expected wave C (wave C should be around the same length as wave A), with the expected 50% to 61.8% retracement of wave A-B-C from wave 1. If wave C drops into the retracement zone it will be a nice wave 1 with good geometry.  Either way i have two analysis on this and im going to wait for price action to confirm one of them, then i'll look at trading it. *Do not be fooled by me providing two analysis, over the next few days one of them will be proved wrong.*


----------



## beamstas (25 May 2009)

*SGN*
*26th May:* For anyone following this thread with interests in VSA you should be getting quite excited about todays bar  . Lets step back a day, yesterdays bar was a wide ranging bar on high volume, with the close finishing up near the high. If that big volume was sellers how could the close be high? Then look at today, we pushed up a 1c, and then fell back to 51cents (open price). Look at the tiny volume, only 40,000 shares were traded. Obviously yesterdays buyers were not keen to sell yet (as the price pushed up but no selling followed through). Remember with VSA one signal doesn't mean a thing by itself, you always have to look at what has happened prior to the bar you are looking at.
*25th May:* This one is forming a nice triangle. I'd really like to wait for this one to break the upside before buying, simply because of the most recent bar on friday. The high volume is a bit worrying so i'll be conservative here. I'll leave this in my watch list to see if it is worth a buy. An alternative from an EW point of view is that we have seen a large wave 1. The problem with this is Wave 2 can never be a triangle, so we don't want prices to push any higher. One thing i like is the confluence between wave A and expected wave C (wave C should be around the same length as wave A), with the expected 50% to 61.8% retracement of wave A-B-C from wave 1. If wave C drops into the retracement zone it will be a nice wave 1 with good geometry.  Either way i have two analysis on this and im going to wait for price action to confirm one of them, then i'll look at trading it. *Do not be fooled by me providing two analysis, over the next few days one of them will be proved wrong.*


----------



## ThingyMajiggy (25 May 2009)

Wow, todays volume is incredibly low, 1.3 million yesterday, down to 40000 today, certainly seems to be favoring the upside. Tomorrow will be interesting

Keep it up Brad


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## beamstas (27 May 2009)

*SGN*
*27th May:* Now we are cookin 
*26th May:* For anyone following this thread with interests in VSA you should be getting quite excited about todays bar  . Lets step back a day, yesterdays bar was a wide ranging bar on high volume, with the close finishing up near the high. If that big volume was sellers how could the close be high? Then look at today, we pushed up a 1c, and then fell back to 51cents (open price). Look at the tiny volume, only 40,000 shares were traded. Obviously yesterdays buyers were not keen to sell yet (as the price pushed up but no selling followed through). Remember with VSA one signal doesn't mean a thing by itself, you always have to look at what has happened prior to the bar you are looking at.
*25th May:* This one is forming a nice triangle. I'd really like to wait for this one to break the upside before buying, simply because of the most recent bar on friday. The high volume is a bit worrying so i'll be conservative here. I'll leave this in my watch list to see if it is worth a buy. An alternative from an EW point of view is that we have seen a large wave 1. The problem with this is Wave 2 can never be a triangle, so we don't want prices to push any higher. One thing i like is the confluence between wave A and expected wave C (wave C should be around the same length as wave A), with the expected 50% to 61.8% retracement of wave A-B-C from wave 1. If wave C drops into the retracement zone it will be a nice wave 1 with good geometry.  Either way i have two analysis on this and im going to wait for price action to confirm one of them, then i'll look at trading it. *Do not be fooled by me providing two analysis, over the next few days one of them will be proved wrong.*


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## rja2439 (28 May 2009)

SGN's looking good Brad...nice one.

Do you have a stock screening approach at the top of your trading system? i.e. how do you find the stocks that are of interest to you? e.g. some sort of initial fundamental analysis, seeking sectors in the market that may have potential, or just wading through heaps of different stock charts?

Cheers,
Rob


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## beamstas (28 May 2009)

rja2439 said:


> SGN's looking good Brad...nice one.
> 
> Do you have a stock screening approach at the top of your trading system? i.e. how do you find the stocks that are of interest to you? e.g. some sort of initial fundamental analysis, seeking sectors in the market that may have potential, or just wading through heaps of different stock charts?
> 
> ...





Hi Rob
For this type of trading its really all about eyeballing charts
I think there is a pattern explorer for amibroker but i don't use it. Someone else may have some feedback

Cheers
Brad


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## Sean K (28 May 2009)

beamstas said:


> I work part time as an accountant, rest of my time is spent at uni, im doing a business degree
> Trading is just a side
> 
> Cheers
> Brad



And your initial deposit is $100K?

So, it's paper trading, right?


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## beamstas (28 May 2009)

kennas said:


> And your initial deposit is $100K?
> 
> So, it's paper trading, right?




Im showing the performance of the trades on a paper $100,000 account yes.
I do trade these setups but im not here to harp on about past performance
That's why the setups are live and going forward


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## Sean K (28 May 2009)

beamstas said:


> Im showing the performance of the trades on a paper $100,000 account yes.
> I do trade these setups but im not here to harp on about past performance
> That's why the setups are live and going forward



OK, cool! 

Looking foreward to updates.


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## Chorlton (28 May 2009)

beamstas said:


> *SGN*
> *27th May:* Now we are cookin
> *26th May:* For anyone following this thread with interests in VSA you should be getting quite excited about todays bar  . Lets step back a day, yesterdays bar was a wide ranging bar on high volume, with the close finishing up near the high. If that big volume was sellers how could the close be high? Then look at today, we pushed up a 1c, and then fell back to 51cents (open price). Look at the tiny volume, only 40,000 shares were traded. Obviously yesterdays buyers were not keen to sell yet (as the price pushed up but no selling followed through). Remember with VSA one signal doesn't mean a thing by itself, you always have to look at what has happened prior to the bar you are looking at.
> *25th May:* This one is forming a nice triangle. I'd really like to wait for this one to break the upside before buying, simply because of the most recent bar on friday. The high volume is a bit worrying so i'll be conservative here. I'll leave this in my watch list to see if it is worth a buy. An alternative from an EW point of view is that we have seen a large wave 1. The problem with this is Wave 2 can never be a triangle, so we don't want prices to push any higher. One thing i like is the confluence between wave A and expected wave C (wave C should be around the same length as wave A), with the expected 50% to 61.8% retracement of wave A-B-C from wave 1. If wave C drops into the retracement zone it will be a nice wave 1 with good geometry.  Either way i have two analysis on this and im going to wait for price action to confirm one of them, then i'll look at trading it. *Do not be fooled by me providing two analysis, over the next few days one of them will be proved wrong.*





Hi Beamstas,

Ref Post #99 shown above, I have noticed that your price data is different to mine. For example your swing point 1 is at 0.600 whilst on my chart it is at 0.660 !!??!!  

FYI I'm using JustData as my data provider.

Consequently, can anyone else following this thread confirm what price they have at this particular point.

Its a little worrying especially considering the Symm Triangle looks totally different when drawn on my chart.


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## ThingyMajiggy (28 May 2009)

Fine here Chorlton, mine is 0.594 so pretty much .600

EOD RealTimeData here.


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## beamstas (28 May 2009)

Chorlton said:


> Hi Beamstas,
> 
> Ref Post #99 shown above, I have noticed that your price data is different to mine. For example your swing point 1 is at 0.600 whilst on my chart it is at 0.660 !!??!!
> 
> ...





PremiumData




They may have had a stock split or something


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## Chorlton (28 May 2009)

Here is my version of the same chart.

As you can see the level is around 0.660.

I'll be interested in others following this thread to confirm their values, if they don't mind.

PS. Sorry to take the thread off-topic briefly Beamstas....


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## ThingyMajiggy (28 May 2009)

Here you go Chorlton...


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## Chorlton (28 May 2009)

ThingyMajiggy said:


> Here you go Chorlton...




Hi Sam,

Thanks for the response.

For anyone else who is following this thread, can I ask that you just post the values you have on your chart rather than post the actual chart, as I don't want to mess up the flow (and main purpose of this thread) BTW Great Analysis on your charts so far Beamstas... !!!

As a side note, the reason for posting here as opposed to on another thread is simply to draw the attention of others following this thread that their data "may" also be different to Beamstas in places and hence the TA patterns that Beamstas is referring to may look different.

Cheers All..........


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## bingk6 (28 May 2009)

Chorlton, got 0.66 as well , also from Justdata


Chorlton said:


> For anyone else who is following this thread, can I ask that you just post the values you have on your chart rather than post the actual chart, as I don't want to mess up the flow


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## beamstas (28 May 2009)

*SGN*
*28th May:* Extremely weak. Normally a symm triangle in an uptrend will make a high and test the high of the triangle twice (which it has done now), as well as the bottom twice. We are free to move in either direction now. I hadn't placed any lines on this chart for buy & sell levels because i wasn't actually trading this one in my own account. If i was going to trade it i'd look for an entry on the green line with a stop loss at the red line. The problem with the probe up is it didn't actually invalidate or prove wrong the e.w count, so again we'll just have to wait for this one to do something decisive. Below the red line invalidates our triangle and above the blue line invalidates the e.w count. (Or a big ranging bar doing both would invalidate me  )
*27th May:* Now we are cookin 
*26th May:* For anyone following this thread with interests in VSA you should be getting quite excited about todays bar  . Lets step back a day, yesterdays bar was a wide ranging bar on high volume, with the close finishing up near the high. If that big volume was sellers how could the close be high? Then look at today, we pushed up a 1c, and then fell back to 51cents (open price). Look at the tiny volume, only 40,000 shares were traded. Obviously yesterdays buyers were not keen to sell yet (as the price pushed up but no selling followed through). Remember with VSA one signal doesn't mean a thing by itself, you always have to look at what has happened prior to the bar you are looking at.
*25th May:* This one is forming a nice triangle. I'd really like to wait for this one to break the upside before buying, simply because of the most recent bar on friday. The high volume is a bit worrying so i'll be conservative here. I'll leave this in my watch list to see if it is worth a buy. An alternative from an EW point of view is that we have seen a large wave 1. The problem with this is Wave 2 can never be a triangle, so we don't want prices to push any higher. One thing i like is the confluence between wave A and expected wave C (wave C should be around the same length as wave A), with the expected 50% to 61.8% retracement of wave A-B-C from wave 1. If wave C drops into the retracement zone it will be a nice wave 1 with good geometry. Either way i have two analysis on this and im going to wait for price action to confirm one of them, then i'll look at trading it. Do not be fooled by me providing two analysis, over the next few days one of them will be proved wrong.


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## nomore4s (28 May 2009)

bingk6 said:


> Chorlton, got 0.66 as well , also from Justdata




I've got 59.4c on both Incredible charts and on Amibroker with PremiumData


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## Chorlton (28 May 2009)

nomore4s said:


> I've got 59.4c on both Incredible charts and on Amibroker with PremiumData




Nomore,

Thanks for the feedback.

This is beginning to look like the problem could be with the data supplied by JustData !!

------------- 

If Tech/A is reading this I'd welcome his comments as from memory I think he uses different data providers.


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## Boggo (28 May 2009)

My chart high and low points using JustData (top) and StockDoctor (bottom)

(click to enlarge)


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## skc (29 May 2009)

Boggo said:


> My chart high and low points using JustData (top) and StockDoctor (bottom)
> 
> (click to enlarge)




LOL. From Bourse Data the high and low points were same as JustData. Go figure!


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## Chorlton (29 May 2009)

skc said:


> LOL. From Bourse Data the high and low points were same as JustData. Go figure!




Its a little worrying IMO given the difference in Prices between Data Providers.  Its makes you wonder how many other prices (across Mrkts) are different !!!!!


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## beamstas (29 May 2009)

Chorlton said:


> Its a little worrying IMO given the difference in Prices between Data Providers.  Its makes you wonder how many other prices (across Mrkts) are different !!!!!




It would have traded at 66c 
But good data providers will change old prices in the event of a stock split, so that past data is accurate for backtesting


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## Chorlton (29 May 2009)

beamstas said:


> It would have traded at 66c
> But good data providers will change old prices in the event of a stock split, so that past data is accurate for backtesting




Beams,

I was under the impression that JustData was a reliable Data Provider. If it wasn't for the fact that I also need LSE data, I would be more than happy to simply swap to Premium Data.

Might have to consider two Data Providers in the future......


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## beamstas (29 May 2009)

*SGN*
*29th May:* I noted yesterday that it was weak, and today we followed through with even more weakness. I have canned the Symmetrical triangle and will approach this with an E.W approach now. This is why you shouldn't fall in love with a particular setup. I have come to terms with the fact that this pattern will not make money, so unless we drop further im going to stand aside.
*28th May:* Extremely weak. Normally a symm triangle in an uptrend will make a high and test the high of the triangle twice (which it has done now), as well as the bottom twice. We are free to move in either direction now. I hadn't placed any lines on this chart for buy & sell levels because i wasn't actually trading this one in my own account. If i was going to trade it i'd look for an entry on the green line with a stop loss at the red line. The problem with the probe up is it didn't actually invalidate or prove wrong the e.w count, so again we'll just have to wait for this one to do something decisive. Below the red line invalidates our triangle and above the blue line invalidates the e.w count. (Or a big ranging bar doing both would invalidate me  )
*27th May:* Now we are cookin 
*26th May:* For anyone following this thread with interests in VSA you should be getting quite excited about todays bar  . Lets step back a day, yesterdays bar was a wide ranging bar on high volume, with the close finishing up near the high. If that big volume was sellers how could the close be high? Then look at today, we pushed up a 1c, and then fell back to 51cents (open price). Look at the tiny volume, only 40,000 shares were traded. Obviously yesterdays buyers were not keen to sell yet (as the price pushed up but no selling followed through). Remember with VSA one signal doesn't mean a thing by itself, you always have to look at what has happened prior to the bar you are looking at.
*25th May:* This one is forming a nice triangle. I'd really like to wait for this one to break the upside before buying, simply because of the most recent bar on friday. The high volume is a bit worrying so i'll be conservative here. I'll leave this in my watch list to see if it is worth a buy. An alternative from an EW point of view is that we have seen a large wave 1. The problem with this is Wave 2 can never be a triangle, so we don't want prices to push any higher. One thing i like is the confluence between wave A and expected wave C (wave C should be around the same length as wave A), with the expected 50% to 61.8% retracement of wave A-B-C from wave 1. If wave C drops into the retracement zone it will be a nice wave 1 with good geometry. Either way i have two analysis on this and im going to wait for price action to confirm one of them, then i'll look at trading it. Do not be fooled by me providing two analysis, over the next few days one of them will be proved wrong.


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## Chorlton (10 June 2009)

*Off-Topic   -    Price Errors between Data Providers*

A few days ago, I raised a concern on here about the accuracy of the Price Data between my data Provider (JustData) and Premium Data.

As an update to anyone interested, I contacted JustData and received this reply. 

_Dear Mr .....

Thank you for your email regarding the ASX symbol SGN. I have looked into this symbol thoroughly and can see that we have missed an adjustment that should have been applied on the 24/04/09. I have rectified this by putting a manual adjustment through today which will adjust your chart when you update tonight.

We rely on the ASX for adjustment information which we receive as a daily 'corporate action' file. I am currently investigating with our ASX representative as to why this information was not included in this file.
If you have concerns about any of your other charts please feel free to contact me.

Regards_


It seems that under normal conditions Stock Splits are accounted for and that this could be a one-off problem.

PS. Apologies to Brad for interupting this thread but I just wanted to update others (who are following this thread and use JustData) that they shouldn't start worrying about the accuracy of their data.

Regards,

Chorlton


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## beamstas (10 June 2009)

Chorlton said:


> *Off-Topic   -    Price Errors between Data Providers*
> 
> A few days ago, I raised a concern on here about the accuracy of the Price Data between my data Provider (JustData) and Premium Data.
> 
> ...




Cheers Chrolton
Makes you wonder why premiumdata picked up the split and not just data
At least good news that JustData Data isn't redundant 

Brad


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## Chorlton (10 June 2009)

beamstas said:


> At least good news that JustData Data isn't redundant
> 
> Brad




Very True..... especially given all the system development I've done to date !!!


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## --B-- (11 June 2009)

great thread beamstas. i really appreciate you taking the time to explain your trades and opinions of charts. as someone completely new to trading, im really finding this thread to be of great value.

keep up the great work!


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## warezwana (16 June 2009)

Nice thread... good to see so many experienced people sharing their knowledge and time... 


p.s Wish I had seen this forum before Optionetics saw me coming


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## ZR1 (17 June 2009)

Hi All, Newbie here. Great posts, very informative for a new player like myself.  I'm wondering what some of you are using to calculate your stop loss position.  My last few trades whilst I have made profits been stopped out prematurely.  I've tried a combination of methods such as countback and indicator based but still finding difficulty fine tuning it.  Often I’m only JUST getting stopped out by a low in price only to have the price close higher.

thanks All


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## chrislp (18 June 2009)

ZR1 said:


> Hi All, Newbie here. Great posts, very informative for a new player like myself.  I'm wondering what some of you are using to calculate your stop loss position.  My last few trades whilst I have made profits been stopped out prematurely.  I've tried a combination of methods such as countback and indicator based but still finding difficulty fine tuning it.  Often I’m only JUST getting stopped out by a low in price only to have the price close higher.
> 
> thanks All




Personally I use pivot highs if short of pivot lows if long.


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## ZR1 (18 June 2009)

Thanks Chrislp,

do you use Calculated Pivots or price pivots

cheers


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## chrislp (18 June 2009)

Just price pivots, usually 1c below a low or high. It's a fairly obvious stop but it works for me & keeps me in a trend.

However it works best in cleaner trends as choppy price action stops you out more often. I prefer to avoid choppy price action anyway.


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## mattswrxy (18 June 2009)

Thanks for sharing your trades.


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## ZR1 (19 June 2009)

Thanks for the insight Chrislp.

cheers


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