# IOZ - iShares CORE S&P/ASX 200 ETF



## System (16 March 2012)

The iShares MSCI Australia 200 fund aims to provide investors with the performance of the market, before fees and expenses, as represented by the MSCI Australia 200 Index. The Fund invests in Australian shares and trusts listed on the Australian Securities Exchange, and seeks to use a full replication strategy to track the performance of the MSCI Australia 200 Index. 

http://au.ishares.com/fund/fund-overview-IOZ-ASX.do


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## System (3 December 2015)

*Re: IOZ - iShares S&P/ASX 200 ETF*

On December 3rd, 2015, iShares MSCI Australia 200 ETF changed its name to iShares S&P/ASX 200 ETF.


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## System (3 May 2016)

On May 3rd, 2016, iShares S&P/ASX 200 ETF changed its name to iShares CORE S&P/ASX 200 ETF.


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## KevinBB (30 September 2021)

September was a funny month, especially the last two trading days. On both occasions, IOZ didn't enjoy the same boost om the closing auction as XJO, the index which it replicates. Today, especially, XJO was up about 30 points in the closing auction, while IOZ was sold off. I do expect a relative adjustment of about 0.6% between the two at the start of trading tomorrow (Friday).

Also, the September just closed broke a winning streak of 11 consecutive up months for the major Australian index. 

Anyway, back to reason for posting. IOZ is my choice for the October competition. Don't laugh.  

Its in the numbers. Do I think it will go up? Do I think it will go down? I really don't have an opinion. But, what I do know, is that IOZ has a probability of better than 50% of going up, so it is my selection. See the attached table.

For me its all about choosing a consistent performer. It probably won't be the best performer on the ASX during October, but it certainly won't be the worst, and it has a better chance than not of finishing October at a price better than today's close of $30.28. I don't want to finish last with my first entry in this competition!

As an aside, October has been the third most volatile month in recent times. The High - Low range is expected to be about 6.5%, so hang on to your hats. I expect this October to be no different to all the others.

The attached table shows XJO statistics for the past 16 years. The first table shows last October to the September just finished, the same for the 4, 8 and 16 year tables. Rank is a positioning thing, so, for example, October in the 4 year table, it is the third most volatile month with a range of 6.713%

KH

The numbers are my own work, extracted from NABTrade charts:


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## KevinBB (30 October 2021)

There were more end of month shenanigans on display on the last trading day of October than you would find in a pub full of leprechauns on the day before Melbourne Cup. Its becoming the "thing", and I'm really losing faith in the validity of prices on the last day of the month.

Yesterday (Friday 29 Oct) saw a steady sale of the larger stocks, with the main indices finishing down 1.5% (approx) for no apparent reason. What's a little inflation to do with things? Everyone has known about rising prices, and the threat of rising interest rates, for a long time. So what if interest rates go from 0.25% to 0.5% or even 1%? There was absolutely no reason for yesterday's sell-off.

There is only one answer. It was the last day of the month and the bigger players needed to make their books "look pretty" for the monthly reports.

On the strength of that, I bought more IOZ at yesterday's close. The sell-off was too good to be true for a bloke with money burning a hole in his pocket. I just had to spend some, and IOZ was my poison. ANZ got a little bit of the closing match action, too.

Now, for November.

On the averages presented, November is always in the top 4 most volatile months. Last year the ASX 200 index moved an incredible 13.7% between low and high during November and, luckily for the longs, finished up just shy of 10%.

Although it is one of the most volatile months, over the long term, November tends to move very little, with the ASX 200 index finishing within 1% of where it opened.

Yes, I'm sticking with IOZ, a proxy for the ASX 200 index, for November. The economy is opening up, people will be travelling again, although not to Melbourne for the Cup, and all of the large companies will continue raking in the profits. The long term stats don't look good for the month, but I'm placing my money on this nag that will run a true 2 miles, and continue at a steady gallop while all the pretenders drop off one by one.

KH

The figures below are my own work, data extracted from NABTrade charts.


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## KevinBB (30 November 2021)

ok ... nice sell-off at the final auction.
IOZ goes from 29.92 to 29.75
XJO goes from 7290 to 7256.
also, S&P 500 futures have fallen off the proverbial cliff.

KH


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## KevinBB (30 November 2021)

And, this is why the sell-off happened.
Link to: CNBC story citing Moderna CEO talking about effectiveness of vaccines
KH


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## KevinBB (30 November 2021)

For December:

That was a nasty sell-off to end November, and the overseas indices are still falling as I write. S&P 500 futures are now down 60 in the last hour or so.

However, I believe in Santa Claus. The price history of XJO, a close relative to IOZ, tells us that Santa usually comes before the end of December. So, the index hugging IOZ is still my preference to any other stock in the Australian market.

Included is the usual table, showing that December is one of the less volatile months on the Australian equities calendar, and, over the long term, the market index has a history of rising about 1% during the month.





Merry Christmas!
KH


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## KevinBB (31 December 2021)

Old faithful. The ETF that never stops giving. Quarterly distributions, mostly fully franked, and an almost certain guarantee to out-perform most stock-picker funds. This is the biggest holding in my portfolio, and rightly so, too.

IOZ continues to be my favourite entity that is listed on the ASX, and so it is #1 in my selections for the 2022 Full Year Tipping Competition, and also in the January 2022 tipping competition.

KH


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## Belli (31 December 2021)

If I weren't so lazy (indifferent?) I'd do a comparison between VAS & IOZ.


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## finicky (31 December 2021)

Light orange VAS line is largely obscured by IOZ candles but chart says VAS and IOZ same?

Weekly all data chart IOZ cf VAS for same period


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## divs4ever (31 December 2021)

i hold VAS  but am looking for a satisfactory exit ( profit )

 VAS looked the superior ( to me ) holding  for capital gains  ( those 100 extra mid-caps with a chance to grow ) back in 2011 

 however VAS ( Vanguard to be more accurate ) have decided  to be more active with the shares they control  ( often  against  my wishes )

 so replacements  ( for VAS , VHY and IHD ) are being  watched , closely

 IOZ is on the shortlist  but is no sure thing to be selected 

 as my NIC  says divs. will be a primary focus 

  given the lack  of performance among the 'blue chips '  it is a shame  i haven't spotted an ex top 50 ETF  , it looks like MVW  will be preferred   as one of the replacements ( probably the IHD replacement )


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## Belli (31 December 2021)

divs4ever said:


> VAS looked the superior ( to me ) holding for capital gains ( those 100 extra mid-caps with a chance to grow ) back in 2011
> 
> however VAS ( Vanguard to be more accurate ) have decided to be more active with the shares they control ( often against my wishes )




Since when do your wishes come into it, especially in respect of index funds? Can you tell me which Vanguard product you think you are referring to?  Vanguard has both actively managed funds and index ETFs.

If you bothered to look rather than dream something up you would discover this:

"Vanguard’s indexing approach​Some index managers like Vanguard use optimisation techniques to build portfolios that mirror the index. Rather than holding all the securities in the index like fully replicated funds, the portfolio holds a representative sample. This is called partial replication.
Optimisation aims to reduce the higher costs of owning all the securities in the index while continuing to match the index return. Some indexes contain many illiquid stocks making it impractical and costly to own every stock in the index.

With partial replication, the portfolio still tracks the index closely, but the costs of trading in many illiquid stocks in the small, 'tail end' of the index are reduced. The fund still holds small capitalisation stocks but rather than holding every stock in the index, a representative sample is held.

*With optimised index portfolios, fund managers don't need to constantly buy and sell securities when index weightings change, resulting in lower turnover, costs and tax. Trading only becomes necessary when the index constituents actually change, or where buying and selling is necessary to meet applications and withdrawals. [Bolding is mine.]*

Optimisation takes a large number of factors into account, including the financial characteristics of securities in the index and the correlation in behaviour between stocks. This way, the index manager builds a portfolio that is "optimal", reducing the tracking error of the portfolio relative to the index while at the same time keeping transaction costs low."





__





						What are index funds
					

What are index funds




					www.vanguardinvestments.com.au
				




Doubt if you will take it on board as it doesn't fit with a distorted view of indexing.


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## KevinBB (31 December 2021)

ok, there has been a few responses to my recent IOZ postings ... so I'll tell you the real reason why I own IOZ ...

The truth it that I'm a terrible stock picker. Can't pick one for peanuts. I have a long history of getting into a position, then either (i) selling it and watch the price go through the roof, or (ii) not selling it, and suffering capital losses.

IOZ has performed as it should, i.e. it follows the market. Nothing more, nothing less. Given my stock picking history, I'm very happy having obtaining a return very similar to the market (whether it be up or down), with little cost.

There are a few alternatives in this space. VAS, A200 and STW. They are all virtually the same. Any one of them will do the same job. Its a coin-toss between them all. Together with IOZ, they are all index based ETFs. None of these fancy high-cost, thematic ETFs for me. An index based ETF, or no ETF at all.

So, IOZ for the long term investment portion of the portfolio, systematic selection of stocks and commodities for the balance. It does ok.

KH


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## Belli (31 December 2021)

KevinBB said:


> The truth it that I'm a terrible stock picker. Can't pick one for peanuts.




Welcome to my world. 

Discovered my lack of competence many years ago hence only LICs and ETS.  Have been in ETFs since early 2002 when STW listed and only sold when VAS was listed.  That was probably not the greatest move either simply swapping ASX 200 (c 95% of the market) for ASX 300 (c 97% of the market).  Staying in STW in all likelihood would not have made very much of a difference.


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## divs4ever (31 December 2021)

LOL

 have only had one successful stock pick   in 10 years  ( MQG pre-SYD bonus ,  av. $26.76 or $18.76 if you deduct the now sold SYD )

the rest go up or down  completely ignoring  my hopes , dreams and ambitions ( yes i hope GOOD stocks  will go down so i buy more cheap  , and bad stocks go up so i break-even or even make a little profit )

 however resisting excessive greed has been my savior  , i will look at a stock  and see nose-bleed valuations  and lacklustre  future earnings  and consider taking some cash off the table 

  near the end of the day i picked up some ZYAU which will probably  bulked up in a BIG dip as the VAS replacement ( at least they don't openly vote  against me at AGMs )

 there are very subtle differences between the various index ETFs  ( not just the fee structures ) but those tiny details  can have long term impacts 

 IOZ is still on that short-list  ( and they could easily stay on it for months )

 BTW don't forget the M&A activity   impacts these ETFs quite a bit 

 DYOR


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## divs4ever (31 December 2021)

VAS suited my thinking back in 2011  , Vanguard have made policy changes  , that have made several rivals more appealing ( for possibly the next 10 years ) STW  was narrowly beaten back then    and i went for SYI  in preference to RDV 

 SYI has a pleasant  habit of finding extra divs when others are bland ( but no guarantee that will happen in the future )

 HOWEVER ETFs ( combined ) are less than 10% of my equity portfolio  , and currently still prefer LICs ( at a discount ) over ETFs 

now IF the markets melt-down  .. that  balance could change  depending on prices ( when share prices fall below NTA and intrinsic values )


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## Sharkman (31 December 2021)

divs4ever said:


> given the lack  of performance among the 'blue chips '  it is a shame  i haven't spotted an ex top 50 ETF  , it looks like MVW  will be preferred   as one of the replacements ( probably the IHD replacement )




what about EX20, a BetaShares ETF that holds no. 21-200 from the ASX200 by market cap? MER is a bit high for my taste at 0.25%, but it's still on my "to be considered" list if i think i need to add a bit more diversity to my ETF portfolio later on (sticking with just IVV / VEU for now).


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## KevinBB (31 January 2022)

IOZ is an index-based ETF, with the aim of matching the return of XJO, on the S&P ASX 200 index. So, when I write about XJO below, the same analysis can be applied to IOZ.

Firstly, for January 2022:

XJO Range: 11.58%
XJO Return: -6.35%

The month just concluded is the first time that we've had a range this large combined with a negative return since February 2020. I'm sure I don't have to remind everyone what happened in March 2020, but I will, just in case there are people reading this who have selective memory loss:

XJO Range 32.94%
XJO Return: -21.18%.

Now that the formal part of proceedings is over, lets have a look at February.

On a short to medium term basis, February can be quite a volatile month. The four year average range is 7.18%, while the 8 year average range is 6.87%. This makes February the third most volatile month over four years, and the second most volatile month over the past 8 years.

Despite having a reputation for volatility, price, on average, doesn't move that much when measured over the most recent past. Less than 1% on average for the four and eight year timeframes.

_*All good reasons for not selecting IOZ in the February 2022 tipping competition.*_

However, I'm a contrarian, and I'm still waiting for Santa Claus to complete his deliveries, so* IOZ is my choice once again.*

KH

And, if you want to read the figures, here they are for the last four and eight year averages:


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## SyBoo (31 January 2022)

Just some observations.

The 50-day moving average crossed below the 200-day moving averages today. Some call that the Death Cross. _(spooky)_

Although,

If one had of bought IOZ on the day of the crossing on 18 March 2020, one would have been buying near the bottom of the market, which happened 3 days later. _(so go figure)_


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## KevinBB (1 February 2022)

SyBoo said:


> The 50-day moving average crossed below the 200-day moving averages today.



Thanks for pointing that out. Another good reason why I shouldn't be picking IOZ in the monthly tipping competition.

KH


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## KevinBB (28 February 2022)

IOZ is an index-based ETF, with the aim of matching the return of XJO, the S&P ASX 200 index. So, when I write about XJO below, the same analysis can be applied to IOZ.

*February:*

XJO finished up 77.5 (1.11%) at 7049.1, beating the average percentage change for the last 4, 8 and 16 Februaries by some margin. Still, not enough for IOZ to win the February tipping competition, but in line with expectations.

The February result was really a good result, with many large companies going ex div during the month.

*March:*

March is usually a quiet month as far as XJO goes, the fall in March 2020 seems to be an outlier. However, we just can't remove one month from our numbers, so in it stays.

The average change for March over the past 16 years is 0.2%, while the average range over the same period is 7.8%, the highest of all the months. So, if past history is any guide, then hang on to your hats for a wild ride.

An alternate view would be that a Federal election is due, and markets are normally subdued during Federal election campaigns. However I'm one for ignoring the political effect on markets, and am sticking with my numbers.

In summing up, history tells us that although March is the most volatile of all the months, the monthly movement can be very small. As it was in February, it is the contrarian in me that is selecting IOZ to take part in the March volatility, but finish the ride at the top of the ferris wheel for a largish up month.

KH


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## KevinBB (18 March 2022)

3.27% for the main index for the week, with most of it flowing through to the index hugging IOZ.
Won't knock that back   






KH


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## KevinBB (31 March 2022)

Feast your eyes on these little April numbers:

3.5% gain last year
4.6% average gain for the last four years
2.8% average gain for the last eight years
2.6% average gain for the last sixteen years

But wait, there's more!

# 2 rank for monthly gain during the last year
# 1 rank for average monthly gain for the past four years
# 1 rank for average monthly gain for the past eight years
# 1 rank for average monthly gain for the past sixteen years

April 2021 was #2 rank for the last 12 months only because of the fantastic 6.4% for the month just completed, March 2022.

Enough. I'm convinced. IOZ is my choice the April tipping competition!

KH

(p.s. The numbers are for XJO, the S&P ASX 200 index. My choice for tracking this index is IOZ, an index based ETF.)


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## KevinBB (30 April 2022)

and, following on from the previous post, what a let-down April was. Even though the loss for April was relatively small (-0.51% for XJO), a far better result was expected.

One thing to note about April was that XJO's range for the month was 5.2%. Not high by historical standards, but still quite a large move. There was a time to be in stocks, and a time to be defensive.

Lets move on to May.

In recent years, May has been a good time to be in equities, with XJO up an average of 1.9% for the past 4 years. However, the further we go back in time, the worse the results become. Up just 0.8% on average for the past 8 years, and down 1.0% on average for the past 16 years.

Over the past 16 years, range for the month of May averages 6.5%. Just like April, I expect that, because of this large range, May will provide a very good buying opportunity at some time during the month.

Despite the poor start expected on Monday (SPI futures are down 1.1% as I write this), IOZ is still my choice for the May tipping competition. I figure that if I have a history of being a terrible stock picker, then I can do no worse than pick IOZ, which tracks the widely followed S&P / ASX 200 index (XJO).

KH
(p.s. The numbers are for XJO, the S&P ASX 200 index. My choice for tracking this index is IOZ, an index based ETF.)


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## divs4ever (30 April 2022)

so you are betting   against the  traditional wisdom  of selling in May  , interesting ( of course that strategy might be relying on the excitement  of company reports  to peak the stock prices , rather than reduce the holdings to pay tax obligations )

 but then  i don't know if BEAR and BBOZ are allowed as tipping picks in the comp.

 since you don't have confidence in your share selection ability  ,  what about   sector focused  ETFs  say an ETF that focuses heavily on banks in the bank reporting season ( at least the  half yearly and yearly results ) or ETFs that embrace  REITs or miners ( from time to time )

 and give you  some flexibility  from month to month 

 but it is going to be an interesting month coming up ,  good luck 

 your historical data is interesting  i always wondered how the index tracking funds  performed long term , considering the tracked index is not a stable basket ( new stocks are included  some stocks are taken-over   or just tumble in market cap. )


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## KevinBB (30 April 2022)

divs4ever said:


> so you are betting against the traditional wisdom of selling in May



No, not really.



divs4ever said:


> but then i don't know if BEAR and BBOZ are allowed as tipping picks in the comp.




They should be, because they are listed ETFs, just the same as many others. The difference between BEAR, BBOZ and IOZ is that IOZ is linked to the market index, and tracks it fairly closely. If you look at BEAR and BBOZ over time, they are supposed to be the reverse of the index, but they are not, most likely because of the time decay problem.

I'm picking IOZ because I know that this will give me a return approximately equal to that of the market. I have a few other things on my plate, and a not really interested in picking a small cap to win this competition. I know absolutely nothing about small cap stocks, my expertise lies elsewhere. So, for me, IOZ is the best bet.

It suits me, IOZ is usually in the top half of results for the month. You never know, one of these months large caps will come good again, and IOZ will be in the top three. At least I'm not running last.

KH


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## KevinBB (30 April 2022)

divs4ever said:


> so you are betting against the traditional wisdom of selling in May



Besides, _sell in May and go away_ is an outdated old wives' tale. Look at the recent stats for XJO:

2014: +0.62%
2015: -0.22%
2016: +2.41%
2017: -3.39%
2018: +0.49%
2019: +1.13%
2020: +4.23%
2021: +1.93%
2022: Your guess is as good as mine %

Sure, before 2014 there were some big down months, but that's back in the dark ages in investing terms. Most stock jockeys woudn't have been born then.

Six of the past eight Mays have been positive, all four of the past four Mays have been positive.

I like those stats.

KH


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## divs4ever (30 April 2022)

KevinBB said:


> No, not really.
> 
> 
> 
> ...




 i don't mind running last  ( or in the bottom three ) as long as i get the selected stock at a good price  ,   

i don't limit myself to picking small caps  , but a small cap ( which has some chance of paying divs )  is where i have had my best results  . some have even climbed into the top 300 ( XKO )

 and i would have to check back  , but May has often been good to me  , by presenting cheaper stocks that have disappointed  with their results 

 good luck .. it looks like this will be a dramatic year


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## KevinBB (31 May 2022)

So, XJO was down 3.01% for the month of May. IOZ, an index based ETF based on XJO, was down from $30.50 to $29.70, or 2.62%. This result just shows that an index based ETF doesn't always follow the index upon which it is based.

Now for June.

June can be a funny month. In the short term, June has produced positive results for the index in general, and that has flowed through to IOZ. However in the longer term, June has been, on average, neutral or negative. So, I guess your guess is as good as mine.

I'm sticking with IOZ because, even though I reduced my position during May, it is still the largest position in my equity portfolio. Besides, there isn't anything else in which I would be happy holding a major position at this time in the long term equity cycle.

KH


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## KevinBB (10 June 2022)

Had to laugh about today's close. Moral of the story .... 

*... don't place orders away from fair price in illiquid stocks during the morning or afternoon auctions ...*

KH


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## divs4ever (10 June 2022)

KevinBB said:


> Had to laugh about today's close. Moral of the story ....
> 
> *... don't place orders away from fair price in illiquid stocks during the morning or afternoon auctions ...*
> 
> ...



HUH ??

 quirks like that have been wonderful for me  ( but i do set a 'limit  price '  )

 cheers


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## KevinBB (13 June 2022)

Its going to be an interesting day on Tuesday, Aussie time. I usually don't make predictions ... but ... this isn't a prediction.

SPI futures were (if I am reading my charts right) 6933 on Friday at market close. Currently at 6673 (approx). Down approx 3.7%. In addition to that, IOZ was approx 2% above fair price on Friday at the close.

So, the SPI futures are telling me that IOZ will be down between about 5.5% and 7%, when trading opens on Tuesday, given the current market prices of the SPI.

weeeeeeeeeeeee!

KH


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## Sean K (13 June 2022)

KevinBB said:


> Its going to be an interesting day on Tuesday, Aussie time. I usually don't make predictions ... but ... this isn't a prediction.
> 
> SPI futures were (if I am reading my charts right) 6933 on Friday at market close. Currently at 6673 (approx). Down approx 3.7%. In addition to that, IOZ was approx 2% above fair price on Friday at the close.
> 
> ...




So, buying the dip?


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## KevinBB (13 June 2022)

Sean K said:


> So, buying the dip?



Not yet, but maybe soon. I'd prefer price to be rising before I buy.
KH


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## KevinBB (14 June 2022)

Sean K said:


> So, buying the dip?






KevinBB said:


> Not yet, but maybe soon. I'd prefer price to be rising before I buy.



I weakened ... bought some a little while ago. I'm a sucker for a good index based ETF.
KH


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## Sean K (14 June 2022)

KevinBB said:


> I weakened ... bought some a little while ago. I'm a sucker for a good index based ETF.
> KH




It's sort of tracking the overall XAO, of course. Off over 6% which is pretty significant for an ETF like this. Long term looks like a good opportunity. Around $26 ish should be a pause, just hard to see what's going to turn the market around in the short term.


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## KevinBB (14 June 2022)

Sean K said:


> Off over 6% which is pretty significant for an ETF like this.




2% of today's fall belongs to Friday. Someone overpaid in Friday's closing match.

You're right in saying that its hard to see what will turn the market in the short term, but I am also a believer in _"no one knows where the market will go"_. I was 85% cash before today, so thought a little bit more in the market wouldn't break the bank, just in case the market turned around.

KH


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## Sean K (17 June 2022)

Looks like we might be getting closer to those support levels around 26 bucks ish for long term proposition. Could overshoot while there's still blood gathering on the street of course.


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## Garpal Gumnut (17 June 2022)

Sean K said:


> Looks like we might be getting closer to those support levels around 26 bucks ish for long term proposition. Could overshoot while there's still blood gathering on the street of course.
> 
> View attachment 142954



If you look out 3 years and do a Fibonnaci retracement $26 may be a bit optimistic.

It is not impossible for a 50% retracement or even a 62%. 

On weekly volumes in IOZ holders are reluctant to panic until the last week of the fall.

So $25, $23 or even $20 if there is a full retracement to Covid panic is not impossible. 

Most people seem to be holding their heads, presently. 






gg


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## KevinBB (17 June 2022)

My trouble is that, although I do read charts and recognise that there is potential for further falls, I don't want to rely on the falls coming to fruition.

So, I've deployed another 10% cash into today's fall, not all in IOZ, but still have 60% cash burning a hole in my pocket.

KH


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## KevinBB (30 June 2022)

This is for starters. Worst calendar months for XJO since May 1992 (I don't have data before then), in order.

June 2022 is right up there with them.






Maybe I'm just looking for a dead cat bounce when I selected IOZ for the July 2022 tipping competition.

More soon.

KH


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## KevinBB (30 June 2022)

If the last post didn't convince you that I've got kangaroos loose in the top paddock for continuously selecting IOZ, maybe this will.

Performance of ASX indices for the financial year just completed:





With numbers like these, I'm glad @Joe Blow hasn't charged an entry fee for the last six months of the monthly tipping competition. Buckley has more chance than IOZ.

KH


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## Sean K (30 June 2022)

KevinBB said:


> This is for starters. Worst calendar months for XJO since May 1992 (I don't have data before then), in order.
> 
> June 2022 is right up there with them.
> 
> ...




I have a bunch of ETFs to invest in over the next few weeks/months and this is one of them. My own tactic is to drip feed funds into the next six months for the inevitable recovery. Not sure if an ETF wins the monthly comp though, unless there's a proper capitulation, although BBOZ might win that.


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## KevinBB (30 June 2022)

Now, those last two posts are in the past. Lets look at July 2022.

The table below shows clearly that July has the lowest range (high to low) and one of the lowest percentage change of any month. Doesn't matter if we're looking at short, medium or long term stats. July is the month where everyone goes into hibernation mode.

However, I'm an old fuddy-duddy, stuck in my ways. I'm like a poker machine player who keeps on pulling on that stick, hoping that the next 5 reels will give a jackpot. I'm hooked.

So, yes, it is IOZ again for the monthly tipping competition. Whether it be the dead cat bounce, the one year when July won't be a boring month, or just the fact that I don't know how to type any code other than IOZ .. its my choice.

BTW ... I should declare that I added more IOZ to the portfolio in the closing auction today. All the more reason to hope for a bounce.

KH

The table:


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## KevinBB (30 June 2022)

Sean K said:


> I have a bunch of ETFs to invest in over the next few weeks/months and this is one of them. My own tactic is to drip feed funds into the next six months for the inevitable recovery.



My name is Kevin and I'm not a good stock picker .... 

This ETF (IOZ) works for me because it is index  based, and history shows that only the very gifted will beat a broad based market index over a long period of time. Drip feeding into this type of ETF is one of the better options for getting into the market, although, for me, the tap ran a bit quickly in today's closing auction.



Sean K said:


> Not sure if an ETF wins the monthly comp though, unless there's a proper capitulation



You would be surprised just how well IOZ has done in the monthly competitions. More often than not it is in the top half of the field. That's a win as far as I'm concerned. 

KH


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## KevinBB (30 July 2022)

As most readers would know by now, IOZ is an ETF which is based on the major Australian index, XJO, the S&P ASX 200 index. So, when I analyse XJO prices, it is really an analysis of IOZ's price. ETF distributions are just an added extra.

*July 2022*

July saw XJO rebound strongly from the April (-0.86%), May (-3.01%) and June (-8.92%) sell-off. XJO finished July +5.74%, the best of the four major indices. This tells me that the second 100 stocks in the index had a fairly good month.

As good as July was, it still doesn't make up for the April, May and June losses, nor does it bring us anywhere near to being ahead on a year-on-year (YOY) basis. XJO is still down 6.05% compared to where it was at the end of July 2021.

*August 2022*

XJO fell behind on a YOY basis during June 2022. The last time this happened was in March 2020, the height of the COVID sell-off, and it stayed this way for eleven months until February 2021. Also to be taken into account is the fact that XJO is still 9.01% below the high water mark reached on 13 August 2021, so it is a tall order to expect that August 2022 will see a new high. 

Falling behind on a YOY basis is, for me, a major event. In the past XJO has either immediately rebounded (i.e. only one month behind on a YOY basis), or stayed behind for at least four or five months. XJO has twice before (on 5 January and 20 April) tried to breach that previous high, failing both times. Things don't look good for August 2022.

However, there are signs of improvement.

The new teaching of Bidenomics tells us that two consecutive quarters of negative GDP growth is not a recession (see this news story), so, although I don't expect new highs, there is hope that the general market will continue to improve during August 2022.

So, I'm tipping IOZ, as a proxy for the general market, again for the August tipping competition. If it doesn't at least make the top half in the results sheet, I'm going to blame Joe Biden.

KH


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## Value Collector (30 July 2022)

KevinBB said:


> As most readers would know by now, IOZ is an ETF which is based on the major Australian index, XJO, the S&P ASX 200 index. So, when I analyse XJO prices, it is really an analysis of IOZ's price. ETF distributions are just an added extra.
> 
> *July 2022*
> 
> ...




We used to not even call them recessions, they used to be called depressions, but given that after the Great Depression those little minor down turns seemed insignificant we changed the name of the smaller depressions to recessions.

Now after the GFC or as some people call it the “Great Recession”, these little “recessions” where unemployment is still low and new investment is still flowing don’t seem to nasty, so maybe it’s true and we need a third word to describe them.

I can totally understand why Biden’s administration wants to communicate that this is not a real recession (yet), because when the word recession gets used it strikes an emotional response in a lot of people which at the moment is probably not justified.


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## Sean K (16 August 2022)

This is approaching some resistance, which prolly equates to 7500 on the XAO, but there's some significant downside support formed within the general upward chanel.


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## KevinBB (16 August 2022)

It has been a very good recovery from recent lows.
Currently down approx 7%, but was down just over 16% during the June sell off.

KH


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## KevinBB (31 August 2022)

As always, IOZ is an ETF based on the main ASX index, the S&P ASX 200 index, otherwise known as XJO. The analysis here of XJO is the best way for me to analyse IOZ as it has a longer history, and devoid of any distribution adjustments.

Here's what I said about XJO at the start of August:


KevinBB said:


> XJO fell behind on a YOY basis during June 2022. The last time this happened was in March 2020, the height of the COVID sell-off, and it stayed this way for eleven months until February 2021. Also to be taken into account is the fact that XJO is still 9.01% below the high water mark reached on 13 August 2021, so it is a tall order to expect that August 2022 will see a new high.
> 
> Falling behind on a YOY basis is, for me, a major event. In the past XJO has either immediately rebounded (i.e. only one month behind on a YOY basis), or stayed behind for at least four or five months. XJO has twice before (on 5 January and 20 April) tried to breach that previous high, failing both times. Things don't look good for August 2022.




The major event continues. XJO is still behind on a Year on Year basis.

XJO would have to finish above 7332.2 by the end of September to escape this dreaded YOY drawdown. _*This just ain't going to happen.*_ Look at the attached image, in particular the _Rank % Chg_ column. It shows that September is the worst performing month over the past 8 years, and second worst over the past 4 years. September 2022 could be a fun month for buy-and-hold types (like me).

So, why am I selecting IOZ for the September competition if the outlook is this poor? Goodness knows ... I need to be committed.

The only saving factor is the fact that when the general market performs poorly, then the larger cap stocks (generally) out-perform the smaller cap stocks. This happens for a number of reasons, the main one (to me) is liquidity. If there is a sell-off, quite often the forced seller of small cap stocks is a price taker, and there may be some really good bargains to be had for those who have a cash stockpile.

Since most stock selections in this competition are smaller cap stocks, and IOZ is based on an index made up of larger cap stocks, then IOZ has a fair chance of finishing the month in the top half of the leaderboard, as it did for the month of August. If this happens, then I'll be a happy chappy.

KH


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## qldfrog (17 September 2022)

Who's behind this epic $830 million selldown, 'the single largest trade in Australian ETF history'? - Stockhead
					

An $830 million outflow from iShares Core S&P/ASX 200 ETF is believed to be one of the biggest single trades in Australian ETF history.




					stockhead.com.au
				



Him not bullish either ETF..or market


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## KevinBB (17 September 2022)

qldfrog said:


> Who's behind this epic $830 million selldown, 'the single largest trade in Australian ETF history'? - Stockhead
> 
> 
> An $830 million outflow from iShares Core S&P/ASX 200 ETF is believed to be one of the biggest single trades in Australian ETF history.
> ...



o - oh ... I sold a portion of my IOZ on Tuesday, but I didn't think it would make the news! 

KH


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## qldfrog (17 September 2022)

KevinBB said:


> o - oh ... I sold a portion of my IOZ on Tuesday, but I didn't think it would make the news!
> 
> KH



I see a positive in that the actual transaction went smoothly, which is not a given..on the other hand, it was soread among 200 stocks so..
But good processes in implementing ioz.kudos.
May be different on narrower ETFs


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## KevinBB (17 September 2022)

qldfrog said:


> I see a positive in that the actual transaction went smoothly, which is not a given..on the other hand, it was soread among 200 stocks so..
> But good processes in implementing ioz.kudos.
> May be different on narrower ETFs



It certainly is different on 'narrower' ETFs. IOZ is the only ETF in my portfolio because of liquidity, it is index based, and it is based on the most widely used Aussie index, the S&P/ASX 200. As a result, if there is a big order (either buy or sell), then it will be only the largest cap, most liquid stocks which will be bought or sold by the ETF managers.

Of course there are other ETFs based on the S&P / ASX 200, and last time I looked there were some based on the 100 and 50 indices, too, any of those will do instead of IOZ. However, I steer clear of any ETFs which aren't based on these three major indices mainly because of liquidity.

KH


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## Belli (17 September 2022)

There is liquidity and there is liquidity.  The broad-based ETFs are generally on the same level regarding liquidity issues and one ETF may not necessarily be more liquid than an other ETF of a similar type.









						How Liquid are ETFs?
					

In this BetaShares Academy post we look at one of the most misunderstood concepts relating to ETFs – liquidity. To understand ETF liquidity, we need to dig into the concept of an “open ended” fund – and when we do, it becomes obvious why ETFs are typically described as having the same level of...




					www.betashares.com.au


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## KevinBB (2 October 2022)

Analysis from the start of August:


KevinBB said:


> XJO fell behind on a YOY basis during June 2022. The last time this happened was in March 2020, the height of the COVID sell-off, and it stayed this way for eleven months until February 2021. Also to be taken into account is the fact that XJO is still 9.01% below the high water mark reached on 13 August 2021, so it is a tall order to expect that August 2022 will see a new high.
> 
> Falling behind on a YOY basis is, for me, a major event. In the past XJO has either immediately rebounded (i.e. only one month behind on a YOY basis), or stayed behind for at least four or five months. XJO has twice before (on 5 January and 20 April) tried to breach that previous high, failing both times. Things don't look good for August 2022.




Further analysis from the start of September:


KevinBB said:


> The major event continues. XJO is still behind on a Year on Year basis.
> 
> XJO would have to finish above 7332.2 by the end of September to escape this dreaded YOY drawdown. _*This just ain't going to happen.*_ Look at the attached image, in particular the _Rank % Chg_ column. It shows that September is the worst performing month over the past 8 years, and second worst over the past 4 years. September 2022 could be a fun month for buy-and-hold types (like me).




The reason for selecting IOZ in September still applies:


KevinBB said:


> So, why am I selecting IOZ for the September competition if the outlook is this poor? Goodness knows ... I need to be committed.




On a year on year ("YOY") basis, XJO is still minus 11.7%. If it were to return to parity by the end of this month of October, XJO would have to rise 849.5 points, or 13.1%. The way things are going, Santa Claus will be coming down my chimney before we break this dreaded run of negative YOY returns.

Eeek! The outlook doesn't look good.

The only positive thing I can see is that on a long term basis (16 years) _*October is quite a volatile month with a range from High to Low of about 7.5%*_, the second most volatile month of the year, second only to April. _*Hang on to your hats for a wild October ride.*_ The image immediately below shows details.





Even though October is a volatile month, lets hope the volatility is positive, and that this run of poor returns stops, and October lives up to its reputation as a month providing positive longer term returns for investors.

As an aside, my great (x about 3 or 4) grandfather died in Gladesville, perhaps I'll be joining him there soon if I continue to select IOZ in the monthly tipping competition.

KH

_Note: As always, IOZ is an ETF based on the main ASX index, the S&P ASX 200 index, otherwise known as XJO. The analysis here of XJO is the best way for me to analyse IOZ as it has a longer history, and devoid of any distribution adjustments._


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## KevinBB (2 October 2022)

The previous post was a bit long, so this is a very short addition:

A longer term monthly chart (source: NABTrade) for XJO shows a recent triple top, with a series of lower lows, and if XJO drops too much more, there isn't too much support until we get to 6000 or so.





KH

_IOZ is an ETF based on the main ASX index, the S&P ASX 200 index, otherwise known as XJO. The analysis here of XJO is the best way for me to analyse IOZ as it has a longer history, and devoid of any distribution adjustments._


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## divs4ever (2 October 2022)

***  September 2022 could be a fun month for buy-and-hold types (like me). **

 participating in the DRP  adds an interesting  twist  ( it translates that lower share price into extra shares  in your portfolio )

 i went for GEAR because  i expect a wave of bailouts ( pivots ) in the coming month  to try to save the mid-term elections for the Democrats ( and maybe some other incumbent governments )

 if i am wrong  i am looking to dip a toe into GEAR around the $17.50 to $18 range  ( maybe even a second nibble if it slides below $17 )

 good luck 

 this month could be  a bundle of excitement


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## Sean K (12 October 2022)

IOZ back on a longer term support line and close to the bottom of the channel. People seem to be pretty bearish out there on the overall economy and financial markets. With Jim Chalmers selling armageddon I have a feeling we might be close to a bottom.


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## KevinBB (12 October 2022)

Sean K said:


> IOZ back on a longer term support line and close to the bottom of the channel. People seem to be pretty bearish out there on the overall economy and financial markets. With Jim Chalmers selling armageddon I have a feeling we might be close to a bottom.




I don't know about a bottom. I'm in two minds here. Maybe we'll see a base in the short term, yes, but looking out a little longer it becomes doubtful.

Governments around the world are doing funny things, I don't think we've seen the end of inflation, and earnings ratios (without being able to quote them) are still at relatively high levels. All reasons why we could see a lower equity markets over the next year or so. A reasonable upcoming earnings season will help, and might reinforce that base we're looking for, for longer term investors anyway.

My systems are still short equity futures, although not convincingly, and equity holdings are now under 40% of that particular account value. If the market rises, fair enough, but I won't be too out of pocket if it goes either way at the moment.

KH


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## divs4ever (12 October 2022)

KevinBB said:


> Governments around the world are doing funny things,



 that is a diplomatic way of putting it .

 however i am mostly invested  ( more than 90% ) despite my pessimism  , i NEED to be in the game , the best i can do is reduce the risks faced ( and if the global economy  goes to zero  , i am in no worse a position to the guy with a billion sitting in the bank ) , i either go bust or have an epic 'average down' story  to tell others later ( over my stashed cognac )


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## KevinBB (12 October 2022)

divs4ever said:


> that is a diplomatic way of putting it .




I am ever the diplomat ... trying to stay clear of any political discussion.

We probably have different investment horizons. If I were still young and silly, I'd be putting every spare cent into IOZ, and then forgetting about the investment.

However, I'm way past that. My longer term investments are mainly for income in my advancing old(er) age, so returns need to be balanced with the need to preserve capital. I mentioned a little while ago (probably in another thread) that I've swapped my IOZ for banks, other large caps, and cash, effectively putting into practice my thoughts about how inflation will affect the markets, especially the less-well-capitalised stocks.

There may well be some bargains come this reporting season.

KH


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## Sean K (12 October 2022)

KevinBB said:


> I don't know about a bottom. I'm in two minds here. Maybe we'll see a base in the short term, yes, but looking out a little longer it becomes doubtful.
> 
> Governments around the world are doing funny things, I don't think we've seen the end of inflation, and earnings ratios (without being able to quote them) are still at relatively high levels. All reasons why we could see a lower equity markets over the next year or so. A reasonable upcoming earnings season will help, and might reinforce that base we're looking for, for longer term investors anyway.
> 
> ...




I'm thinking there's worse to come with World economies. It's probably a matter of how much worse and how much negativity is already baked into equity prices.


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## KevinBB (31 October 2022)

We've got the volatile month of October out of the way, with a reasonably good price increase after that shocking September.

Historically, if we don't look too deeply, November a bit of a placid month, with the long term average price movement somewhere between +0.8% and +2.2%, depending on your look back period.

The details, though, can be a bit concerning. As far as the monthly range goes, November is very similar to other months, with an expected range of about 6 or 7 percent.

The other concerning thing to me is that we still don't have a higher high, so the bouncing off recent lows doesn't look convincing at all, as shown on the attached chart (data from NABTrade, still not updated for October's close).

However, I'm a creature of habit, so I'm sticking with IOZ. The odds are that I'll get a better return from having a few dollars on IOZ than having those same dollars on a nag in tomorrow's Cup.







KH


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## Sean K (2 November 2022)

KevinBB said:


> We've got the volatile month of October out of the way, with a reasonably good price increase after that shocking September.
> 
> Historically, if we don't look too deeply, November a bit of a placid month, with the long term average price movement somewhere between +0.8% and +2.2%, depending on your look back period.
> 
> ...




I'm looking at this as a very long term play and buying near the bottom of this chanel seems relatively safe to me, even if the 4 Horsemen arrive. Above $26 support looks good to me. For now. Until those 4 Horsemen I guess.


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## KevinBB (3 November 2022)

Sean K said:


> I'm looking at this as a very long term play and buying near the bottom of this chanel seems relatively safe to me, even if the 4 Horsemen arrive. Above $26 support looks good to me. For now. Until those 4 Horsemen I guess.



Your chart certainly backs up your argument, but price is on the wrong side of that 200 day moving average as far as I'm concerned.

My mind seems to be in a permanent "bearish" mode at the moment. This interest rate thing has been on my mind for a couple of months, and I think we haven't seen half the damage it will do to consumer confidence as yet. As a result, I've steered my portfolio towards those entities which will benefit from this interest rate rise through increased margins, i.e. the major banks.

IOZ is probably a safer bet than banks are on their own, solely because of the diversification obtained by buying this ETF.

KH
_(*** sitting on the fence ***)_


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## qldfrog (3 November 2022)

KevinBB said:


> Your chart certainly backs up your argument, but price is on the wrong side of that 200 day moving average as far as I'm concerned.
> 
> My mind seems to be in a permanent "bearish" mode at the moment. This interest rate thing has been on my mind for a couple of months, and I think we haven't seen half the damage it will do to consumer confidence as yet. As a result, I've steered my portfolio towards those entities which will benefit from this interest rate rise through increased margins, i.e. the major banks.
> 
> ...



But banks in Australia are mortgages and so at risk if market crash?
I mean RE crash


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## KevinBB (3 November 2022)

qldfrog said:


> But banks in Australia are mortgages and so at risk if market crash?
> I mean RE crash



Of banks in all the world, arguably the Aussie banks are the safest with the government imposed capital controls.

The other thing is that most, if not all, of the higher-leveraged mortgages held by the banks are insured, the insurance fee being paid by the borrower. Banks have never had it so good! If there was a real estate crash, I'd take it as a bank buying opportunity.

The four horsemen moment mentioned by @Sean K , if it does occur, could well be the current government introducing a "bank tax". First talk of that and I'd consider selling.

KH


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## Belli (3 November 2022)

Like STW, A200 and VAS, it's an index fund using float-adjusted market capitalisation.  It don't give a damn about a company going broke.  WBC blows up (which almost happened) then another company will replace it.


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## divs4ever (3 November 2022)

Belli said:


> Like STW, A200 and VAS, it's an index fund using float-adjusted market capitalisation.  It don't give a damn about a company going broke.  WBC blows up (which almost happened) then another company will replace it.




 but doesn't that only benefit you  if you buy the dips ??  , when the failing business(es ) drag the index down  for a short time , normally the replacement company is no 'rising star' either


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## Belli (3 November 2022)

You should change your nick as you are actually have trader mentality if I can call it that.

Index investing in its pure sense takes no account of market dips or other gymnastics.  It is intended to continually invest whenever funds are available irrespective of market conditions.  The downside of ETFs is they are listed and priced continually during trading hours as a consequence.  That in turn panders to the speculative instinct which you have acknowledged in your post.





__





						What are index funds
					

What are index funds




					www.vanguardinvestments.com.au


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## divs4ever (3 November 2022)

Belli said:


> You should change your nick as you are actually have trader mentality if I can call it that.
> 
> Index investing in its pure sense takes no account of market dips or other gymnastics.  It is intended to continually invest whenever funds are available irrespective of market conditions.  The downside of ETFs is they are listed and priced continually during trading hours as a consequence.  That in turn panders to the speculative instinct which you have acknowledged in your post.
> 
> ...



 i spent  a large  part of my early life  with various forms of ( non-market ) gambling  , and am  trying to swap strategies  without totally ignoring opportunistic that might arise 

 and yes the trend in ETFs   you mention can make them momentarily  more attractive  ( a cheaper buying price  , slightly improves div. yields 

 one thing i have learned from the multi-millionaires i have met    is PENNIES COUNT ( and accumulate )  , maybe that is a trait  of millionaires still climbing  the rich list  ladder ( haven't got around to yachts , private  jets , and chauffeurs  , yet )


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## Belli (3 November 2022)

You simply don't get it which isn't surprising.

Ponder this.  The Oct2021 distribution for VAS was $1.41.  The Oct2022 distribution for VAS was $1.45.  That is a 3.6% increase.

With me so far?

So how did my income increase by 10.6% in respect of those two distributions where there were no:

sales involved;
following of trends;
charting or other arcane issues
concerns whether or not the ETF was attractive?
Apologies to others for thread derailment.


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## divs4ever (3 November 2022)

well my VAS holding increases ( since the end of 2011)  via participation in the DRP 

 whereas ETF SYI  has moved along because of
A participation in the DRP

B. strategic timing of a reduction move and  later an additional buy move 

 i try to find a strategy that suits the investment  ( best for me )


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## Belli (3 November 2022)

As I said, and expected, you don't get it.

I'm out of this thread.


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## KevinBB (3 November 2022)

IOZ is intended to be a quiet / lazy type of investment ... hoping to bring a bit of that back to this thread.

I think the important words in this post are:


Belli said:


> It is intended to continually invest whenever funds are available irrespective of market conditions



All this does is to highlight two different investing styles. No one is right, no one is wrong. Its just two different styles of investing.

The pure index investor will choose IOZ, and place any spare cash in that ETF, as returns over time should (in theory) match those of the index. This style of investing was largely invented (IMHO) by Jack Bogle and the Vanguard type of investment.

The F.I.R.E. movement was responsible for further popularising this style of investing, and was really responsible for me, many years ago, finding IOZ and placing amounts into this ETF on a regular monthly basis (back in the days when I worked for a living).

Others (like @divs4ever and myself) may choose to increase or decrease holdings of IOZ according to their investment plan, and that may be solely to collect dividends or chase capital gains, just as they do with other ASX listed equities, and as I do with banks, other stocks, and IOZ.

Which is the best style of investing? I've got no idea, but I know what suits me at my time of life, just as others know what style suits them. I guess the debate will continue on and on for many years after I've turned to dust.

KH


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## divs4ever (3 November 2022)

i have nothing against the F.I.R.E. movement  ( except i discovered it AFTER i was retired )  in fact i quite respect their aims  and support for each other .

 my strategy is to put ( new ) money  where grass is the greenest at the time ( IMO ) , but then being retired , i have more time to watch and think about the market movements  ,  a professional  ( in most fields ) is much better off  throwing cash at investments in a way less demanding of their time ( and keep earning on their day job ) , some go the Financial Adviser  path , others go with monthly buys on existing holdings . .. one size rarely fits all in investing 

 but i still like to save that penny where i can 

 cheers


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## Belli (3 November 2022)

KevinBB said:


> This style of investing was largely invented (IMHO) by Jack Bogle and the Vanguard type of investment.




The first American ETF was listed by State Street in 1993 (the very first ETF was listed in Canada in 1990.)  Bogle while at Vanguard rejected an approach by Nathan Most, who invented the ETF concept, who at first hoped Vanguard would list it.

Bogle actually hated ETFs as he viewed them as encouraging trading which he viewed as a losers game.  He did soften somewhat by saying nothing wrong with broad based ETFs _as long as you don't trade them_.

As I have said in other threads, I have held an ETF (STW) since 2002, which, for some crazy reason I cannot remember, I swapped for VAS when it listed and later added VGS when it came along.  Have done nothing but add since then - no DRPs.

Their last distribution provided me a five figure income with minimal effort on my part.  My investment approach, also applied to the SMSF, is a good income through continually accumulating with little effort on my part but that isn't a temperament which suits everyone.


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## KevinBB (21 November 2022)

IOZ is my choice (again) in the monthly tipping competition.

First, some facts:

On a ranking basis, IOZ has out-performed throughout the year. Three times (Jan, Mar and Jul) IOZ was ranked in the 6th decile, but for every other month IOZ has ranked at better than 50% in the final rankings. Twice (Feb and Jun) it positioned 6th, 8th in May, and most other months in the mid to low teens.
On a returns basis, IOZ has delivered a satisfactory performance against other competition participants. Of the 25 entrants who submitted selections for at least 8 months, IOZ ranks eighth (*) as of close of trading today, and has a positive (just) balance of $10,027. Of the 25, 8 entrants have positive balances, the rest, well ... not so good.

So, as I see it, I have two choices: choosing good old dependable IOZ, or choosing a different stock each month, which is likely not to perform as well as IOZ. For the old conservative fuddy-duddy that I am, its an easy choice to make.

KH

* Assuming $10,000 bank balance at start of year, invested in the entrant's selection for the month, each month.

* I have attached a table showing my calculations for returns for the year to date. _Names have been hidden to protect the innocent_. Looking forward to seeing the tables produced by @debtfree when the year finally ends.


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## frugal.rock (21 November 2022)

Belli said:


> You simply don't get it which isn't surprising.
> 
> Ponder this.  The Oct2021 distribution for VAS was $1.41.  The Oct2022 distribution for VAS was $1.45.  That is a 3.6% increase.
> 
> ...



I'm interested in this.
How did your income increase by 10.6% from scenario mentioned?

I'm hoping this is a "power of compounds" exercise. Consider me young and naive, instead of old and naive. 😬


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## divs4ever (21 November 2022)

Belli said:


> Bogle actually hated ETFs as he viewed them as encouraging trading which he viewed as a losers game. He did soften somewhat by saying nothing wrong with broad based ETFs _as long as you don't trade them_.
> 
> As I have said in other threads, I have held an ETF (STW) since 2002, which, for some crazy reason I cannot remember, I swapped for VAS when it listed and later added VGS when it came along. Have done nothing but add since then - no DRPs.




 ' broad-based ' + DRP participation ( especially if the ETF also pays franking credits )    , can be a useful path 

 VAS in preference to STW ( and other top 200  ETFs ) was a straight potential growth decision for me  ( the lower 100 stocks are more likely to have out-sized capital growth  to offset the slight rise in risk 

 (and in 2011 with a 10 year target  i needed to force capital growth CAREFULLY , and well as build div. income ) so VAS  had a more acceptable answer to my problem  ( back then )

 VGS ??  i was particularly cautious to international exposure  ( now  i prefer to be very selective with my international exposure )


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## qldfrog (21 November 2022)

frugal.rock said:


> I'm interested in this.
> How did your income increase by 10.6% from scenario mentioned?
> 
> I'm hoping this is a "power of compounds" exercise. Consider me young and naive, instead of old and naive. 😬



FR you said no sale but not no buy
Just buy more packets but that is probably not the answer you are looking for😂


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## divs4ever (21 November 2022)

frugal.rock said:


> I'm interested in this.
> How did your income increase by 10.6% from scenario mentioned?
> 
> I'm hoping this is a "power of compounds" exercise. Consider me young and naive, instead of old and naive. 😬



i am GUESSING  but i think  a 3 cents rise ( by 4 times a  year , as VAS pays 3 monthly ) plus franking credits  ( NOT a 3 cent rise on the div. every quarter  ie.  $1.41 , $1.44, $1.47 ,and $1.50 ) must get close


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## divs4ever (21 November 2022)

qldfrog said:


> FR you said no sale but not no buy
> Just buy more packets but that is probably not the answer you are looking for😂



 compounding ( via the DRP ) works very nicely for me in some places , but not everywhere


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## Belli (22 November 2022)

frugal.rock said:


> I'm interested in this.
> How did your income increase by 10.6% from scenario mentioned?
> 
> *I'm hoping this is a "power of compounds" exercise.* Consider me young and naive, instead of old and naive. 😬




You are correct.  No proprietary method or secret sauce.  Just buying as much as I can when I can irrespective of price or angst and general hand wringing.


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