# Forex intraday T/A



## caribean (14 June 2007)

Anyone trading intraday ?
I trade using candlesticks, trendlines, fibo.
Interested in getting this Aussie forum more active, rather than be posting in an overseas one.


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## caribean (14 June 2007)

Are we allowed to post specifics when it is trades we are taking?
or does that constitute financial advice?


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## prawn_86 (14 June 2007)

you can post whatever you want. its people fault if they take it as advice.

correct me if im wrong mod


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## CanOz (14 June 2007)

caribean said:


> Are we allowed to post specifics when it is trades we are taking?
> or does that constitute financial advise ?




I'd be interested in following your trades, post away i say!


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## caribean (15 June 2007)

So far a difficult week to trade for the EUR/USD (imo), except for an obvious short, which i didn't take.
Tonight might offer a trade we'll see...


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## wayneL (15 June 2007)

Caribean

Posting analysis and your opinion is just fine so long as it is clear that it is just that. Some put a disclaimer in their signature to that effect.

It is only if you advise or tell people to buy or sell that you run foul of the rules.

Post away.


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## caribean (15 June 2007)

Thank you WayneL, 
options expiration today...
Last week was a trading bonanza, with some great T/A signals, this week is a different story...last night i jumped in long on EUR/USD a bit late after missing my signal, it went against me by 15 points and since price action did not look so convincing on the upside i exited with 2 points loss.
I do not hold positions overnight.
US CPI coming out tonight, so any trades i might take i will exit by then.
Good luck to you if you are trading.


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## >Apocalypto< (15 June 2007)

caribean said:


> Thank you WayneL,
> options expiration today...
> Last week was a trading bonanza, with some great T/A signals, this week is a different story...last night i jumped in long on EUR/USD a bit late after missing my signal, it went against me by 15 points and since price action did not look so convincing on the upside i exited with 2 points loss.
> I do not hold positions overnight.
> ...




Rates will most liky stay the same. US

i trade FX on daliy and 4 hour three month charts never got into it on Itra yet


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## caribean (15 June 2007)

testing


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## caribean (15 June 2007)

Hi Tradeit, intra day trading is a disease and i'm infected, it doesn't suit everyone, besides if you are doing well trading the daily why spent hours in front of a computer?


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## caribean (15 June 2007)




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## >Apocalypto< (15 June 2007)

caribean said:


> Hi Tradeit, intra day trading is a disease and i'm infected, it doesn't suit everyone, besides if you are doing well trading the daily why spent hours in front of a computer?




i itraday the xjo have fun there from time to time.

but i see alot of trades playing forex on the 15min 10min 5min. there are lots of good plays out there on the shorter time frames.


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## nizar (15 June 2007)

I heard forex is more suited towards daytraders (compared to stocks).

thoughts as to why this might be?

Because of the higher leverage available in forex?


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## Edwood (15 June 2007)

caribean - USD-EUR looks bearish near-term, but pretty bullish on the daily view imo

Nizar - probably because there is more range and currencies tend to move around predictable times (e.g., mkt open & economic data)


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## caribean (15 June 2007)

Nizar,take a look at XJO, DJI, DAX, etc...forex may give good trends ,but it's nothing like the indices for a good swing trade...IMHO.


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## nizar (15 June 2007)

caribean said:


> take a look at XJO, DJI, DAX, etc...forex may give good trends ,but it's nothing like the indices for a good swing trade...IMHO.




The DAX is a champion,
She certainly knows how to run!


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## caribean (15 June 2007)

I agree Edwood, currently i'm watching the price reaction at around 13305- 13290 for a possible reversal.


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## Edwood (15 June 2007)

caribean said:


> I agree Edwood, currently i'm watching the price reaction at around 13305- 13290 for a possible reversal.




yep looks fair Caribean


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## caribean (15 June 2007)

Do most of you use bars or candlestick charts?


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## Edwood (15 June 2007)

candles mostly Caribean


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## caribean (15 June 2007)

There's two sides to tonight's trading (of course) the possible short is:
pull a fib from 13369, 0% to 13261, 100% (the most recent downswing), you will notice there's a price reaction at (exactly) 61.8% with 127% extension falling right on the lower daily T/L at 13230.
On the long side the perfect scenario would be a run to 13295 which is also the 61.8% of the most recent upswing and also where two T/L meet, and then with the appropriate price reaction a run to 13350.....that's my theory...you know what happens to theory a lot of the time....the author ends up with egg on his face,lol.


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## caribean (16 June 2007)

Did you jump in long Edwood?


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## Edwood (16 June 2007)

no I didn't follow it last night Caribean - was getting myself out of a Dax short unfortunately.  how about you?  looked a doozy! 

Am just getting the hang of this harmonics tool - this was the bullish daily view I mentioned last night.  not trading with it yet, just watching to see how they play out.

At first pass it seems to be good for picking turns, the pattern prints as soon as the fibs complete, and I guess once it moves away from the apex you have a good place for a stop... might start sticking them up as they print if thats OK


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## caribean (16 June 2007)

Hi Edwood, no i didn't either...i have not looked much into harmonics as presented by Gartley or Larry Pessavento's, butterfly and other similar patterns.
However i'm a BIG fan of Gartley's simpler ABCD patterns...i see great examples of these patterns and they are the basis of the way i trade, i also think that forex is perhaps the best market for applying this kind of T/A (IMO).
There are harmonics within the simpler ABCD's in the form of fib convergense,
combined with trendlines, candlesticks and the appropriate timeframes, you can build a system around them.
My problem is the fact that you can have a whole week at times without a trade, and being an active sort of a person i can get bored out of my brains waiting for the set up to form.
I have tried scalping the YM but the problem is the hours it is active..i do need to sleep, i'm currently thinking of going in to scalping EUROSTOX 50 or the DAX as i believe they are a lot more active in the short time frames.
I should also point out that i trade currency futures rather than spot.
What program do you use to draw the patterns ? (if you don't mind me asking).
Cheers mate.

PS:the thread does not belong to me just because i started it, anyone is welcomed to post any T/A they use.


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## Edwood (16 June 2007)

caribean said:


> Hi Edwood,
> i'm a BIG fan of Gartley's simpler ABCD patterns...i see great examples of these patterns and they are the basis of the way i trade, i also think that forex is perhaps the best market for applying this kind of T/A (IMO).
> There are harmonics within the simpler ABCD's in the form of fib convergense, combined with trendlines, candlesticks and the appropriate timeframes, you can build a system around them.
> 
> ...





hi Caribean - yeah now that you mention it - looking at the patterns again they all have that ABCD base - hadn't realised that!  program is called MetaTrader4, a Russian kit. eSignal have an add-in as well.

agree re: US hours - knackering.  for me its ASX, Dax, FTSE opens and occasionally the SMI for a swing.  will start watching the Hang Seng this week - if that looks OK may just drop the US altogether


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## caribean (16 June 2007)

Well, we had a decent breakout of the consolidation and a possible reversal (i'm not convinced yet).
Next week may bring better set ups and an opportunity to score some points...long or short, only time will tell.


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## caribean (18 June 2007)

Hi folks, both the AUD and the GBP look bullish don't they?


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## caribean (18 June 2007)

The GBP gave a long signal back on Friday of the 50% retracement but it has gone so far now that risk reward are a bit out of whack so a risky long trade...on the other hand the Aussie gave us a nice hammer of the 38.2% (almost) and is probably the better trade with risk reward reasonable.
Just my opinion as i'm long in both those, very cautiously with the GBP...there's the ever present danger of the sucker trade (brake out of the consolidation, suck in long orders, take out their stops).
Any other takes?


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## caribean (18 June 2007)

Covered GBP for 30 points on the round number (1.9800 futures) ,looking for opp. to re-enter.


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## caribean (18 June 2007)

Well 1.9800 seems to be support rather that resistance...if that's the case i exited too early
Yep i did..mised out on another 20 or so points... the funny thing is my original limit to exit was 19815...it hit 20.
Right now it's on the junction of a shorter term down T/L and a longer term up T/L which is also the 161.8 % extension,
perhaps minor retracement terittory.


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## caribean (18 June 2007)

On the AUD, close of the current hourly candle  at around 8432-5 will be a short signal for me...10 min. to go, target for me 8400......nah, no go, i don't like the correlation to other pairs.


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## wayneL (18 June 2007)

caribean said:


> Covered GBP for 30 points on the round number (1.9800 futures) ,looking for opp. to re-enter.



Caribean,

Are you trading forex or the futures (just out of interest)


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## caribean (18 June 2007)

Futures WaineL, good deal through Transact...i mostly quote spot prices so people don't get confused


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## wayneL (18 June 2007)

caribean said:


> Futures WaineL, good deal through Transact...i mostly quote spot prices so people don't get confused



Right.  Me too. Good idea quoting spot.

I understand the reason you didn't take the trade, but it looks like it might have worked... bummer.

Cheers


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## caribean (18 June 2007)

Yes WayneL the ones i remember are the good ones i didn't take lol ...do you use Sierra ?(if you don't mind me asking)
...the futures are finding support at the round number 8400


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## wayneL (18 June 2007)

I feed IB data in Amibroker, though I have used Sierrachart before. Both are good, I just prefer Ami.


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## caribean (18 June 2007)

I used to be with IB , good broker, i just got sick of the forex complications (you know what i mean)
 i also prefer Ami and it's one off fee, i don't like some of the idiosyncrasies of Sierra.
Unfortunately Sierra is the only option with Transact, later i might buy a data feed for my Metastock 8 , my preferred charting.
The other thing i would like is an Aussie broker that can compete with the yanks in speed of execution & cheap commitions...i'd change tomorrow.
Good trading to you


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## caribean (18 June 2007)

Good night and good luck if you are still trading....that AUD trade would have been a good one


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## caribean (19 June 2007)

Hi folks, though i don't normaly trade the JPY i think this is an interesting observation...


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## caribean (19 June 2007)

and this..which way will it go?
sorry i still suck at posting images


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## caribean (19 June 2007)

Is the carry trade good enough to send it punching through to 132's ?


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## caribean (20 June 2007)

Hi folks, it appears as if the EUR has formed a short term double top IMO, so i'll be shorting it with the S/L just above the top formed around 1.3440


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## caribean (20 June 2007)

not looking so good at the moment but i'll stick to my guns, since the risk to reward on this trade is very good, the S/L my only way out, however need to be mindfull of the hourly T/L, i'd be watching the reaction to it.


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## caribean (20 June 2007)

Correlation is not looking so good...especially the JPY ...have to be cautious,
also the EUR seems to be finding support at the junction of the T/L with the 38.2% retracement...
depending on how this hourly candle ends, it may be a reversal to the long side...
There's very nice support at around 1.3418 going back a long way.. so it will be interesting.


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## caribean (20 June 2007)

reversed trade.. looking to the long side now


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## caribean (20 June 2007)

LOL you've got to laugh when this happens...
it seems i'm talking to myself here...are there no other intraday traders here ?
..or just simply not interested in posting your opinions ?


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## Edwood (20 June 2007)

caribean said:


> LOL you've got to laugh when this happens...
> it seems i'm talking to myself here...are there no other intraday traders here ?
> ..or just simply not interested in posting your opinions ?




heh heh - yep it happens to me on SPI thread & the international index thread sometimes.  never mind, no arguments that way!! 

am keeping an eye on what you are up to Caribean, but a bit busy to participate during the day at the moment unfortunately


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## caribean (20 June 2007)

I'm only new here Edwood...is it because of lack of traders, or simply not interested in chatting ?
I only see the same few people posting ...


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## Edwood (20 June 2007)

caribean said:


> I'm only new here Edwood...is it because of lack of traders, or simply not interested in chatting ?
> I only see the same few people posting ...




I'm not entirely sure but you just have to look at a chart of XAO over the last 5 years to see that Aus has been relentlessly rising.  Most of the action here seems to be around resources - & banks - fair enough too, in hindsight the buy-n-hold-n-add strategy would've worked out very well thank you very much!


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## caribean (20 June 2007)

Absolutely...you get no argument from me, if you got  reasonable funds it's been easy money....though the "easy" bit may come to an end.
I've got a friend who has done very well out of some junior mining stocks, and i do buy the occasional put or call, as for the XJO or the XAO i do daily T/A on them for my option trading.
But even though this is primarily a stock forum there's got to be forex traders
around here somewhere, you do see a lot of Aussies in US forums so why not
here..maybe we'll have to throw a few pips on the ground and they'll fly in from all over the place...even if we do get a few droppings on our head...
Anyway that's my lot for tonight  = -7points, goodnight and good luck.


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## >Apocalypto< (20 June 2007)

caribean said:


> I'm only new here Edwood...is it because of lack of traders, or simply not interested in chatting ?
> I only see the same few people posting ...




I feel u man I got sick of talking to myself as well in trading the xjo with CFD's

I am a very keen, but slow paced FX trader I trade the Aussie on daily not the intraday.

Problem is caribean most fellas in here like what edwood said stock buy and holders.

I have made a couple of EURo GBP CHF / us$ trades but i mainly follow the indexes, oil gold and couple asx shares.

I would like to trade fx on 5-30 min but no time, keep it up I am following.

Do u use much fundamental analysis in your trading Caribean?


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## >Apocalypto< (20 June 2007)

caribean said:


> Absolutely...you get no argument from me, if you got  reasonable funds it's been easy money....though the "easy" bit may come to an end.
> I've got a friend who has done very well out of some junior mining stocks, and i do buy the occasional put or call, as for the XJO or the XAO i do daily T/A on them for my option trading.
> But even though this is primarily a stock forum there's got to be forex traders
> around here somewhere, you do see a lot of Aussies in US forums so why not
> ...




Are you trading options over the xjo?


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## caribean (21 June 2007)

Hi Tradeit, i'm not a big time options trader, a just buy a bit here and there....
i did all right when gold was skyrocketing with LHG.
My XJO analysis is a work in progress as my funds are limited i'm restricted to forex and the few options,
Fundamentals are of course important..everything is IMHO, but i do stay out of the market when announcements come out.


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## caribean (21 June 2007)

That EUR short would have been a good one....you could have the best T/A
skills but if your psychology is wrong you will not make money...lol
it was just too choppy for my liking...trading intra day like i do requires a lot of concentration and i'm sometimes distracted by my own family,i wouldn't have ended in minus points if i wasn't...however distractions by your family should always be welcomed, especially if you got young children.....
Back on the options, they are a beautifull instrument to use, aren't they? 
i've read some of WayneL 's comments about options...impresive.


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## brendan87 (21 June 2007)

Hi everyone. Just wanted to introduce myself to your forum. I’ve been an ASF member a while now and occasionally contribute to discussions on ASX stocks. I’m a long-term investor – I would classify myself as risk tolerant. I am a f-t student of economics which can be a huge bonus but can impair my judgement as well. So I enjoy F/A on my long-term holdings and get a kick out of reading the company’s accounts. 

When I decided to trade FX during my winter break I decided to abandon everything I know about exchange rates from uni (because half of it doesn’t hold empirically anyway, and I know it is unwise to try and be ‘smarter’ than the market). So I’ve been getting interested in T/A – and have started off just looking at basic support/resistance and some simple patterns.

Today I had my first trade. Yesterday I had trouble pulling the trigger and I think it’s because I was looking at AUD/USD. I have too many predisposed (F/A) notions about where the AUD/USD should be trading and couldn’t make a clear interpretation of the chart. I’m looking at doing intra-day and grabbing small moves. (High volume, low risk, low return trades). Plus I have a bias with the AUD/USD – a lot of my long-term holdings have a lot of US earnings so a higher Aussie hurts my portfolio. On the other hand, a high Aussie is doing a remarkable job at keeping the CPI low (has anyone looked at the breakdown of the CPI? – imported goods are the main cause of our current lack of inflation) and keeping interest rates from rising. So I don’t think I can objectively look at the pair; had a look at the EUR/USD chart this morning and saw a shorting opportunity. 

I was so surprised at the ease I had in shorting – since a lot of long-term investor such as myself seem to have a predisposition to long trades and find short trades even just a little discomforting. And no qualms pulling the trigger for the first time either. Here is what I saw:

-sustained downward trend from 13:57 GMT 20/June
-the chart showed support around 13396 (from 21:06 and 21:39 GMT 20 June)
-Hence I saw a triangle forming that suggested a down-ward breakout, plus I knew the overall trend for the last 24 hours was down.
-I entered at 13395 short.
-Watched an up-ward breakout from a minor down-trend but it failed to push upwards a lot and didn’t reach GSL which was 10 pips from open.
-Around 01:26 GMT (21 June) it broke the blue support line where I entered and quickly reached my target: 13385 which was an old support from 10:28 GMT (19/June): so I just targeted 10 pips and achieved the target and closed.

So I’m really happy with my first trade. I was open for about 2 hours and glued to the screen the whole time! It was such a fun experience (of course it is when you make a profit). I was scared to leave to computer though … one of the pitfalls of a 1 minute chart. I think trading during the UK/US night-time reduced the volatility because there was no major news and the currencies were drifting/trending nicely.

I’m interested in hearing about others trades too and I’m pleased to meet you all. Ps – I am open to discussion on AUD/USD lol.  Is this forum all pairs?

Pps - I hope you can see the graph! It is from IG who is my provider - there is a 2 pip spread on the majors and a 3 pip GSL. I think that's pretty good - I want to see if I can make pips (gross) first, then increase position size and determine if other providers are better. Who do you guys use?


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## caribean (21 June 2007)

Hi Brendan87,welcome!
As a student of economics i think there's a lot you can tell us about the fundamental side of things...
Congratulations on your first trade, well  done!
You will find T/A if applied correctly is the best way to trade intra day IMO.
For tonight, i'm waiting for an opportunity to short either EUR/USD or AUD/USD or both...on the long side the JPY/USD has allready given the long signal, early in the morning and is out of my range unless it retraces a bit, which doesn't look very likely at the moment.
Getting ready to short AUD at the completion of the current candle as i've got a signal on the 30 min chart.
.......signal not quite right for now, will wait....


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## caribean (21 June 2007)

...We should see it come back about here ,8455-58


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## caribean (21 June 2007)

Well i didn't get a chance to post..things happened too quickly,
the EUR did not give a signal before dropping like a brick, an opportunity may arise if it retraces,
the AUD did give a signal in the lower time frames (15,30 min.)


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## caribean (22 June 2007)

Both the EUR and AUD failed to follow up, the JPY did retrace and now is against the major resistance of 123.70, i'm looking at a longer term trade on this one with a convincing break of the resistance but i may enter now without confirmation on a tighter S/L....
The GBP also gave me a long signal last night, mid european session, but the US session failed to deliver (with the exemption of a scalp), i'm scratching my head as to why things are so quiet,is it lack of news releases, or am i missing something?
The AUD short ended up being a flop, i watched my profit come back to break even and then exit....there was a long signal at the end of the US session yesterday which i dismissed in favor of the short reaction to the back of the T/L ....the Aussie looks strong again.
I may be confusing at times, but if you are a relatively short term trader you will have to trade what you see ,not what you think will happen the day before...


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## caribean (22 June 2007)

My forex analysis program ,Metatrader4 is down, i think due to my anti virus program, AVG, so i'm a bit lost at the moment...anyone else with same problem?


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## Kauri (22 June 2007)

caribean said:


> My forex analysis program ,Metatrader4 is down, i think due to my anti virus program, AVG, so i'm a bit lost at the moment...anyone else with same problem?



 Still running here and importing into my other chart programmes...


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## Kauri (22 June 2007)

caribean said:


> My forex analysis program ,Metatrader4 is down, i think due to my anti virus program, AVG, so i'm a bit lost at the moment...anyone else with same problem?




  Hate to tell you this caribean but the euro is making a bit of a break for it.... looks like you may have inherited my luck...


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## caribean (22 June 2007)

Ha ha ha!!, thanks Kauri.. i do have other charting available, i entered long on the JPY, but that's a longer term trade (i hope..)
The GBP was the other choice for a long, the technicals looked great,  but i missed my chance to enter at a reasonable level.
Anyway the problem it appears lies with AVG antivirus not MT4, it is finding a virus in MT4 which i think doesn't exist and the problem started as soon as the auto update happened in AVG without the MT4 operating at the time...i've been to another forum and it seems i'm not the only one....it's funny how you can feel disabled without your usual charting package.
Iwould like to set up in a similar way..i used to but the set up i had could not load historical backfill... can your set up do that?


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## Kauri (22 June 2007)

caribean said:


> Ha ha ha!!, thanks Kauri.. i do have other charting available, i entered long on the JPY, but that's a longer term trade (i hope..)
> The GBP was the other choice for a long, the technicals looked great, but i missed my chance to enter at a reasonable level.
> Anyway the problem it appears lies with AVG antivirus not MT4, it is finding a virus in MT4 which i think doesn't exist and the problem started as soon as the auto update happened in AVG without the MT4 operating at the time...i've been to another forum and it seems i'm not the only one....it's funny how you can feel disabled without your usual charting package.
> Iwould like to set up in a similar way..i used to but the set up i had could not load historical backfill... can your set up do that?




  Yes, I have an "indicator" in MT4 which when run downloads all the data automatically/continuously to my hard disc, from all pairs etc that you have tabbed. If your charting programme has an asci convertor you can read it.. I use Dynamic Trader which automatically reads and prints the data to my charts in 1min intervals.... also downloads the historical data the first time you run it..     keeps me happy in my 4hour time frame trading...


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## caribean (22 June 2007)

Metastock or Amibroker are the other programs i have...but i'm not as savvy as you sound you are, if there's a site that's idiot proof please let me know...


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## caribean (22 June 2007)

Oanda is my longer term broker, due to my frustration with the MT4 problem i had the entry was late for that as well.


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## caribean (22 June 2007)

Testing another image...
Entry signal at the start of European session(preferable)


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## caribean (23 June 2007)

No comment...


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## caribean (23 June 2007)

Have a good weekend folks,
thank you WayneL.


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## caribean (25 June 2007)

Good afternoon people, good luck with your trading tonight, or maybe you allready made some money trading through the morning.
We've got a tight consolidation happening on the EUR and GBP , the trend is ,IMO, bullish, so maybe we can assume they'll break to the upside?
i don't like trading this consolidation and i'll wait for a signal either way, i'm long JPY/USD and the make or break should be when it re-tests the resistance of 124.12...we'll see...


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## brendan87 (26 June 2007)

Had three long trades today: 2 losers and 1 winner. Got stopped out of a long AUD/JPY and a long AUD/USD for losses of 15 and 21 pips repsectively but made 11 pips long AUD/JPY later on. I find I'm making all the typical "beginner" mistakes: not sticking to the plan. 

My first two trades today were to open long at a major support after a downward trend - which is another mistake: to trade against the trend. It was never my aim/goal nor in my plan to try and buy at the very bottom and sell at the very top - which is exactly what I tried and failed to do this morning by buying on rejection of support. Silly. Picking the absolute low and high is a fool's game. 

Yet when I found a set-up that suited my objectives - breakout from a triangle forming with a longer-term downward trend and a shorter term upward trend - it worked! Managed to bungle the entry though with the software rejecting the order: GSL too close. But by the time I fixed it, the price had already moved quite alot. The speed at which this market moves is really amazing. Turned out my closing when the orange up-trend was broken was a smart move. My exit strategy (long) is just to close off when a significant support has been broken because this signifies that the trend that has failed and since it was that trend that inspired my entry then there the original reason for entering is no longer valid.

I was also interested when I had a long AUD/JPY open - and watching it fluctuate as the USD/JPY and AUD/USD fluctuated. I noticed through deduction that strength in the AUD was behind the trend rather than weakness in the JPY. Although at different times I'm sure one, or two or all three currencies could be trending at once and offsetting/contributing to one another. Here are some photos:


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## Edwood (26 June 2007)

one rule you might like to go back with & have a second look at your charts is to short when price is below your MA and long when price is above.  that should help to keep you with the trend


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## caribean (26 June 2007)

I did go long on the GBP/USD, it did offer 10 points which i didn't take and i exited on the break even after enduring a lot of chop...that 2.000 number is quite a resistance level...my JPY long is on the nose a bit, in fact a two week old road kill smells better, my S/L at 123.00....


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## caribean (27 June 2007)

I just thought i'd share with you my great JPY trade....the double top on the resistance was the worry but i was hopping it would've come back to re-test it ,the S/L was moved down to escape the round number and the 161.8 fib extension, normally that would be a cardinal sin but in this case it was justified, well at least i thought so at the time,.....lol, it made me laugh i hope it brings a smile to your face as well.....
On the other hand i did pick up a few points on the GBP (short).
So far the action has been pretty choppy, hopefully we will have better trades the rest of the week....that daily candle on the Aussie looks ominous...it could be that everyone placed S/L just above the resistance on all EUR, GBP and AUD for a short trade...price action tonight perhaps will tell.


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## caribean (28 June 2007)

Hi folks, i've been a bit busy with the DAX futures (only just had it allowed on my account a few days ago),i did come close to pressing the trigger several times (purely scalping) but i chickened out, i need a few days of eyeballing it to get used to it....
so i'm long the USD/JPY again at around 122.90,
mainly based on a very bullish looking daily candle and also some slightly dubious hourly T/A.....i think it should be good to around 123.65, but we do have some important news coming out, GDP and rates early tomorrow morning so a bit of caution, however i'd be very surprised if the said daily doesn't live up to expectations...will leave trade on through GDP news and get a washer ready in case i have to wipe the egg of the face....
The best trade tonight would have been the GBP, IMO....yes i know hindsight and all the rest...but still a nice technical trade with a fib 161.8 extension target ( just short).
Good luck with your trading.


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## caribean (29 June 2007)

Whats going on here? I just saw a daily candle change right in front of my eyes, from a bullish hammer to this.
Look at the hourly, it confirms the previous candle..the broker is ODL.


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## caribean (29 June 2007)

Different broker, period separators two hours back...


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## caribean (29 June 2007)

AUD/USD should come back and re-test the 8470 area, it's what happens there, that will determine if we make new highs to around 8530...IMO


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## caribean (29 June 2007)

Closed JPY trade for 43 pips, will re-enter if the opportunity shows, maybe around 122.95 ?
..i should add that technicaly i shouldn't exit this trade untill original target of 123.65, sometimes i exit on gut feel and though that has costed me some points in the past it has also saved me a lot , 43 pips is a respectable amount to lock in


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## caribean (2 July 2007)

Good evening folks, hope you had a good weekend.
The Aussie looks to have been the best opportunity, unfortunately i wasn't trading then, the first target of 8535 has been hit, second target is 8560.
The entry should have been around 8495 and it doesn't look like its coming back...an entry now is a bit risky, money management out the window....


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## >Apocalypto< (3 July 2007)

caribean said:


> Good evening folks, hope you had a good weekend.
> The Aussie looks to have been the best opportunity, unfortunately i wasn't trading then, the first target of 8535 has been hit, second target is 8560.
> The entry should have been around 8495 and it doesn't look like its coming back...an entry now is a bit risky, money management out the window....




I got it at 8425 last week.

Missed adding to it on the break of 85 now its on a light top a minor retrace is the next move in my view so depending on how deep it retraces I will look to add more to my existing after proves the direction will continue.


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## caribean (3 July 2007)

Well done mate, i think 8660 for an intermediate top, sometime this week, we'll see....


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## caribean (5 July 2007)

Did you see that EUR jump...interest rate announcement coming out, expected to remain same, could it be that someone knows something we don't....


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## caribean (6 July 2007)

Short signals on EUR, GBP,AUD , but NFP coming out tonight..i've shorted but remain cautious.


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## caribean (6 July 2007)

exited AUD short for +9 points, ominous looking twizer bottoms on the 100%, could be a double bottom...lost faith.
GBP still looks bearish.....


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## BradK (6 July 2007)

I am looking at IG markets.... 

How much is 1 contract worth in $US terms to trade Forex? 

Cheers
Brad


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## caribean (7 July 2007)

Hi BradK, i don't know about IGMarkets, but generally speaking a contract is around $100000.00 (GBP 60000.00)
1 point (currency futures) is worth $ 12.50 (EUR/USD) ,$6.25(GBP/USD),$10.00 for others.
You can find contract spec's by visiting CBOT,CME,or it should be available somewhere on IG site.


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## lesm (7 July 2007)

BradK said:


> I am looking at IG markets....
> 
> How much is 1 contract worth in $US terms to trade Forex?
> 
> ...




Bradk,

With IG Markets you can trade a standard contract, which is $100,000 and $10 per pip or a mini contract, which is $10,000 and $1 per pip.

As caribean mentioned the contract details/specs are available on the IG Markets site or any of the other Forex broker sites.


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## caribean (7 July 2007)

I just wanted to make it clear that it doesn't matter ,with perhaps the exception being scalping where every bit of saving is important, really who you are trading with, if your approach to trading is a sound one, you will make money, specific systems and different time frames are there to suit different people...i'm not pretending to be a hugely successfully forex trader, 
but i have found it's usually the psychology that gets in the way ,rather than than the trading system.
There are a lot of traders more experienced then i, which could probably add a lot more, but simply put it is our own minds that play the worst tricks on us
 rather than the fake bid and ask etc...
I'll try and show you some examples later on, if i can....


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## caribean (9 July 2007)

Hi folks, will be looking for long set ups on GBP/USD,EUR/USD for tonight....if they appear.


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## lesm (9 July 2007)

caribean said:


> Hi folks, will be looking for long set ups on GBP/USD,EUR/USD for tonight....if they appear.




Looking at the current charts GBP/USD may signal a long entry before EUR/USD. Would look for an entry around 20,117 or 20,121 on the GBP/USD, and 13,631 or 13,633 on the EUR/USD.


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## caribean (9 July 2007)

G'day lesm good to see your response...
i'm waiting for a retracement and some suitable candlestick formation to go long, so far just a consolidation....2.0087 or 2.0075 looked promising support
areas to watch...we'll see, i always trade what i see not what i thought would happen two hours earlier, cheers mate


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## caribean (9 July 2007)

The areas you are mentioning will be long confirmation perhaps.


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## lesm (9 July 2007)

Hi caribean,

Interesting to see what both currency pairs do during the London and New York sessions. Have just been watching them on the 30 minute charts. GBP/USD has just pulled/retraced back from the pivot (20,116) through S1 and S2. EUR/USD has just gone back down from S1 through S2.

Have been watching both of these for the last couple of days, especially the EUR/USD.


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## caribean (9 July 2007)

Yes, lesm, i'm just happy to see someone contributing...i don't use pivots anymore, simply because since i learned to use fibs correctly i had found pivots falling on 38.2%, 50% and 61.8% depending on the bias.....
hmmm looking at the charts this could be what we are looking for...keep in mind the GBP PPI coming out 6:30 pm
ohh, yeah watch the AUSSIE correlation


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## caribean (9 July 2007)

Areas to watch out for.....imo


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## caribean (9 July 2007)

Beautiful set up....so far...on EUR


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## lesm (9 July 2007)

caribean said:


> Yes, lesm, i'm just happy to see someone contributing...i don't use pivots anymore, simply because since i learned to use fibs correctly i had found pivots falling on 38.2%, 50% and 61.8% depending on the bias.....
> hmmm looking at the charts this could be what we are looking for...keep in mind the GBP PPI coming out 6:30 pm
> ohh, yeah watch the AUSSIE correlation




I am using a combination of pivots and fibs. They actually work together quite well. It took me a couple of months of testing to work out a consistent approach. Using MT4 for strategy testing hooked up to a demo account with live data and IG for live trading on Fx.

With a pivot based approach if you enter too early, as you are probably aware, there may be a need to cover the position quite quickly. One approach is to consider a 'no-buy'/'no-sell' zone each side of the pivot, S1/S2 and R1/R2 lines or some form of confirmation approach before entering a position. When the fib lines overlay/overlap the pivot lines they can provide an indication of the strength of resistance/support at a particular level. This has similarities when using multiple fibs and looking at the multiple fib line clustering characteristics.

Like any approach learning to use it correctly and consistently is always the key.

Will be interesting to see what tonight brings.


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## caribean (9 July 2007)

I use fib convergence, it's a powerfull tool if used correctly, the other tool i'm learning to use is volume, one of the best things about trading currency futures is the true volume.
One thing i have noticed is the price action seems to me to be different to what it used to be like ,say back in '05 or even '06, it could be just my imagination (i haven't gone back on the charts to check).
One thing i do remember is how many times i'd curse for covering too early and missing the move, now it's a blessing, because it almost always comes back to your entry point and beyond, take tonight for example, on the EUR i took 10 points which is just as well ,it came all the way back and i can now perhaps re-enter (i don't like the look of that shooting star candle)


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## lesm (9 July 2007)

caribean said:


> G'day lesm good to see your response...
> i'm waiting for a retracement and some suitable candlestick formation to go long, so far just a consolidation....2.0087 or 2.0075 looked promising support
> areas to watch...we'll see, i always trade what i see not what i thought would happen two hours earlier, cheers mate




Only ever trade what I see. my references were straight from the charts at time of posting.

Not sure what the reference to two hours earlier is about, as neither of the pairs were above the pivot line for a number of hours. GBP/USD made three attempts to breach S1 and failed before 10:30 am AEST and EUR/USD was below S1 from 8:30 am AEST.

There are a number of approaches to trading pivots, some more aggressive and higher risk than others.

Good see that you picked up some pips on the EUR, but interesting that you left GBP alone, it actually had a tighter range than the EUR before it broke out to the upside. Should take a look at the volume for both the EUR and GBP.

I have access to volume via the account hooked up to MT4, always interesting to look at the pairs via both platforms.

Using fib convergence is an interesting approach, now understand why you make the calls you do, combining it with volume should help improve it.

Cheers


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## caribean (10 July 2007)

Hi lesm, i'm not critisizing, simply stating my approach, not all of it some of the bits i keep to myself.....the trade what you see reference was because i 
 stated two hours before European open of the possible general direction of the pairs.
I am interested in listening to other approaches, not because i'm not happy with my system, but because there's always room for improvement, and vise versa i would think.....
I do not post all of my trades here, or enywhere for that matter.
I pick one of the pairs, some times, the GBP had a news release coming out, which could have spiked me out, you were right the GBP was the right trade.
On the MT4 volume...(i assume you mean MT4 volume), i don't use it because i don't trust it, and that's just personal opinion, i do think MT4 is great for T/A on forex.
I guess the point of this thread is to create constuctive inputs on T/A, and also to chat, trading can be boring at times.
No expectations of traders revealing all of their strategies, in any case my approach involves a bit of discretion, for better or worse (as i stated before).
What was your target for the GBP if you don't mind me asking?
Again, thank you for posting.


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## caribean (10 July 2007)

Anyone knows why they dropping out of the sky?


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## caribean (10 July 2007)

AUD/USD might be setting up a long, better picture, end of this hourly candle.


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## CanOz (10 July 2007)

caribean said:


> AUD/USD might be setting up a long, better picture, end of this hourly candle.




Sitting on S1...daily.

You ever use weekly or monthly pivots Carib?

Cheers,


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## caribean (10 July 2007)

Hmmm..still a bit indesicive, will watch first 15 min of next hourly candle and volume for a decision.
No, canausieuck, i don't.


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## CanOz (10 July 2007)

caribean said:


> ..i don't use pivots anymore, simply because since i learned to use fibs correctly i had found pivots falling on 38.2%, 50% and 61.8% depending on the bias.....




Ahhh, i see now.

Cheers,


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## caribean (10 July 2007)

I actually jumped in long and out again...it may well go long, but i won't be in it....i didn't feel comfortable with it...


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## caribean (10 July 2007)




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## caribean (10 July 2007)

Anyone trade the EUR/USD tonight?


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## tayser (10 July 2007)

In a simulation mode - yep 
	

		
			
		

		
	




Ã¼ber FX newbie here - nice little $500USD profit to tip my account back into the black hah


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## lesm (10 July 2007)

caribean said:


> Anyone trade the EUR/USD tonight?




Hi Caribean,

No.

Thanks for your earlier response, now understand the context of your comment.

With respect to the GBP the inital target was set at R2. Normally define initial targets. From an intraday trading pespective won't initiate a trade unless there is a minimum of 10 pips available.

We all keep at least some part of the trading method to ourselves, but understanding the basis of a method helps understand part of the approach and different people may perceive potential opportunities differently. Which is why I was interested in your taking the EUR as opposed to the GBP at that point in time. 

One of the things that I have found, is that I place more emphasis on entries and exits based on fibs when trading an index than I do when trading Fx. Need to look closer at this aspect over the next few days.

Initially didn't really place much emphasis on fibs, but after a fair amount of research and testing eventually learnt how to apply them effectively. In this regard you made a very valid point with respect to the application of fibs.

I find the MT4 platform useful for running tests, quite straightforward to use for experimental purposes. Since a lot of the Fx volume is either indicative or synthetic, its reliability is going to depend on who provides the data feed rather than the platform.

Haven't looked at the market all day and am just catching up on the activity, since arriving home, so will see what turns up tonight.

Cheers.


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## lesm (10 July 2007)

CanOz said:


> Ahhh, i see now.
> 
> Cheers,




Can,

Like any method, such as fibs or pivots, learning how to apply it correctly will make quite a bit of difference to your trading.

Cheers.


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## CanOz (10 July 2007)

lesm said:


> Can,
> 
> Like any method, such as fibs or pivots, learning how to apply it correctly will make quite a bit of difference to your trading.
> 
> Cheers.




Yes, i agree Lesm. I've been looking for ways to apply the monthly and weekly pivots with other indicators and generally watching for support and resistance entry's as well. I'm only paper trading index's, i looked at forex today only due to the precarous postion of the AUD/USD pair.

Cheers,


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## >Apocalypto< (10 July 2007)

hey any of u guys catching the EUR/USD?

I just saw it but it's two late to make a play.

just got stoped on my USD/JPY daily trade for a nice slice but it also falling hard!

AUD/USD showing minor strength as well.

FOREX makes life fun!


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## wayneL (10 July 2007)

Trade_It said:


> hey any of u guys catching the EUR/USD?
> 
> I just saw it but it's two late to make a play.
> 
> ...



Well it would be a hindsight trade to say yes, but it was a pretty textbook pivot play IMO.

The yen was a nice play off the 2x bottom on the dailies as well ***, for those who took it... watching for carry trade unwind implications too.

*** futures are JPY/USD so the chart is inverse to spot


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## caribean (11 July 2007)

Sitting on any directional currency Calls or Puts, WayneL?


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## wayneL (11 July 2007)

caribean said:


> Sitting on any directional currency Calls or Puts, WayneL?



Well, as a mod I'm pretty hot on hindsite trades, so unless called live, I prefer not to say... but I do try to stay hedged for my exchange rate risk.

Cheers


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## caribean (11 July 2007)

Understood, WayneL.
Well, what's for dinner tonight? it will be a hard act to follow...or maybe we'll get much of the same.
The air is pretty thin up here, not much by way of historical S/R levels to go by, except for the JPY ,will be watching for any opportunity's.
The AUD has formed an indicisive daily candle...we'll see.


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## caribean (12 July 2007)

G'day folks, a bit quiet huh?
I've got my eye on the Swissie tonight it might set up a long (short futures).
It hasn't set up anything yet, end of this hourly candle or next ,may offer something...US trade balance coming out 10:30 so if long targets will be modest, i think 1.2085..


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## caribean (13 July 2007)

Good afternoon folks.
Anticipating a GBP/USD short, it may just break out of the consolidation, or give us a retracement, the AUD/USD looks to have completed a fib extension play (161.8%)and should come down a bit..we'll see.


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## caribean (14 July 2007)

You would have to say it's a classic way to find sellers in a long market...breaking out of the consolidation and just out of the 100% fib range
only to reverse solidly, and i'll have to say i was one of the suckers, convinced that it was good for at least 40 points to the downside, i went out for  dinner to come back stopped out for  -22 points...you have to smile with your own stupidity at times, especially when i don't normally trade these types of consolidations (there is one type i trade but they occur rarely).
I'm sure wayneL will not mind this hindsight trade....lol
Anyone else traded successfully on friday?.....have a good weekend people.


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## stormbringer (31 July 2007)

JPY broken below short term trend line. Read into what u want. I've taken a small position on the short side, entering at 102.55. GL


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## caribean (6 August 2007)

Well i was going to post a chart...if i could only figure out how to empty my attachements..#@@&$*


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## wayneL (6 August 2007)

caribean said:


> Well i was going to post a chart...if i could only figure out how to empty my attachements..#@@&$*



Empty your attachments?

PM me and tell me whats happening and I'll try and help.


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## caribean (6 August 2007)

Stormbringer, that was a good short, did you stay in it for a few pips? (102.55 was a typo right?)


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## caribean (6 August 2007)

Thought i'd post another bad trade, i shorted looking for 30-35 points(yes i know about the interest rate).
To me it was a good reaction to a resistance level (also a fib level) with the right candlestick, and was stopped out of this one 
It's interesting looking at the pound and possibly the eur right now..


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## caribean (7 August 2007)

I think the GBP/USD may offer a short, but i haven't got a signal yet and will have to go out soon.
Levels to watch will be 2.0350-70 and 2.0390
Targets 2.0230 and (depending on the depth of the retracement) 2.0170


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## >Apocalypto< (10 August 2007)

Hi caribean,

as on most friday nights i sit infront of the comp for the night looking for intraday plays on the IG 2pip spreads and the eur/gbp usd/jpy.

if you have skype and spend your fridays staring at price action, would be happy to chat on skype chat some time.

cheers
Joseph


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## caribean (10 August 2007)

Hi Joseph, i used to have skype but lost it after a computer rebuild, i'll find the name and set it up again so we can have a chat.
I sit in front of a computer most week nights...


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## caribean (13 August 2007)

Looking for a possible long on the USD/JPY, currently in consolidation and on support....


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## caribean (27 August 2007)

Well, it's not intraday, but a very interesting chart none the less, look where the 161.8% falls...
Very, very important in my opinion is going to be how this current candle is going to close in these last few days.


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## caribean (3 September 2007)

Possibly tonight's price action scenario, keep in mind, US holiday.


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## caribean (13 November 2007)

Hi all, back from a long absence,
on the AUD/USD chart bellow the entry should have been on the .8870 area,
i'm a bit late, my target as per chart.


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## caribean (13 November 2007)

Monthly update, chart speaks for itself...


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## caribean (14 November 2007)

I anticipate more upside to 9100....


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## caribean (15 November 2007)

The two areas on the chart will be of interest, if it breaks 8971 then 9100 is 
out for now...looking at the GBP/USD both have reacted at the 50%, which might be indicating that the current bullish move was an impulsive retracement and there's more downside...looking at the DAX, it may also be indicating a resumption of the bearish move again for the indicies..time will tell.


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## caribean (16 November 2007)

I did not trade what i'm showing on the hourly, simply because i wasn't there 
to trade it, but as you can see the area it's on at the moment is S/R.
In my opinion a convincing break of this area will see us testing the double bottom, and beyond that, well.....


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## caribean (16 November 2007)

The DAX...


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## caribean (19 November 2007)

Solid support if it holds i'm looking for a long....


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## caribean (21 November 2007)

AUD/USD 4 hour chart, lower highs, lower lows?
break of the double bottom may see the bears taking over a bit more desisively.....


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## caribean (22 November 2007)

Shorted about 10 pips up...late posting


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## caribean (23 November 2007)

Locked in some profit on USD/JPY, target 107....


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## caribean (5 December 2007)

Another one i got stoped out from...it offered another opportunity for a short at 8825, but wasn't there to take it...


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## caribean (11 December 2007)

My take of it....


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## caribean (11 December 2007)

I will not be taking a short position, but where the red line is it's a pivotal S/R level (127% on the monthly) so i do anticipate a bit of action to the downside...


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## caribean (13 December 2007)

I don't know but it looks short to me..


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## nizar (18 December 2007)

caribean said:


> I don't know but it looks short to me..
> View attachment 15891




Hi Caribean,

Iv just read through this whole thread.
Thanks for your contribution and keep up the good work.


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## caribean (19 December 2007)

Thanks for your reply Nizar,
i'm not trying to prove anything, and unfortunately i can not reveal all of my strategies (it would be doing the wrong thing by the guy that taught me)
there's enough tidbits, and i'm certainly enjoying it 
This forum has a bunch of good people in it, and though a few more would be good for it (in forex threads), hopefully we can avoid  the verbal diarrhea occurring in some of the big overseas fx forums....


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## caribean (19 December 2007)

Well, you could say it looks short, but there's the German IFO coming out at 20:00 it can move the pair quite a bit some times, this could be T/A predicting F/A (that's Fundamental, in case you want to be smart)


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## caribean (19 December 2007)

And yet AUD/USD has just given me a long signal...there goes the co-relation


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## caribean (19 December 2007)

In long on the Aussie..


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## caribean (20 December 2007)

That was a flop...


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## caribean (29 January 2008)

I really thought the 8880-85 would prove tough resistance (it might yet be)...


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## caribean (29 January 2008)

Hmmmm, maybe it's setting up for a short.....


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## caribean (30 January 2008)

Obviously, the big event is the federal interest rate announcement at 6:15 AM
tomorrow, but we've got other important announcements earlier...how is it all
going to affect the price movement?...i've got no idea...
The orange line is on a strong S/R, and the junction of the immediate up TL
with the longer term down TL overhead looks interesting...will it meander it's
way down to support and go long on the announcement, find a bit of resistance on the junction and continue through, then come back and test the back side of the long term TL?...as i've said i've got no idea, but it's a bit of fun guessing...nothing is stopping it from doing the exact opposite of course,
it's just that i favor the long scenario...any other takes?
View attachment 17455


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## caribean (30 January 2008)




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## caribean (30 January 2008)




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## caribean (6 February 2008)

In long the AUD/USD looking for a retracement...which may not come


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## caribean (6 February 2008)

If it doesn't work out i'll be looking for a short to 8885ish


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## caribean (10 February 2008)

While the highlighted area proves to be support, i'll be looking for long opportunity's on the lower timeframes...


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## caribean (28 March 2008)

Beautiful head & shoulders, plus TL break plus good fib setup..as far as technical signals go i don't think it can get better than this


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## caribean (28 March 2008)

...which i failed to trade,got a bit concerned about the news coming out, i've got so many examples of technicals predicting fundamentals, and yet i still fail to enter prior to a release... shorted the aussie instead...


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## caribean (2 April 2008)

Have taken a long on the swissy with a very tight S/L, anticipating a break out of the consolidation...if i'm proven wrong i'll be watching for a retracement
to a support level before i re-enter.


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## caribean (2 April 2008)

This has been frustrating to watch, it did give me 30 points, but i didn't take them, it bounced off my entry point several times, and finally i'm out -1 point
Ahh well....next trade


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## caribean (29 April 2008)

I posted a chart some time ago on the AUD/USD Monthly, (on another forum also)



It shows a good Gartley ABCD which is not complete yet (i think parity will complete it).
Now it might seem irrelevant to be posting a monthly chart, but i think it's very useful, and it has helped my intra day trading quite a bit...It shows the daily ABCD with a possible fib extension failure (double top?)



And finally the chart below shows a TL break with a test of the backside, note where the 261.8% extension falls...good fib convergence of Monthly, Daily, and the current ,4 hour, set up...


Obviously the current set up is not going to be a simple affair (if it turns out that way at all),there will be many intra day trading possibility's to the downside and also the upside.
Note the current down TL is not yet a correct one.
This post sheds a bit more light on the way i use TA, if you got any questions, or you also use Gartleys or just fibs, and you want to contribute , don't be afraid to post...
All of this is only my opinion, and certainly not a trade recomendation...


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## >Apocalypto< (29 April 2008)

Hey Caribean,

could be a 10 pip long setting up on the eur/usd 30min


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## caribean (29 April 2008)

Did you pick up 10 pips Ap.?...i actualy was sitting on a short scalp, but got sick of waiting so i'm done for the night, good luck, mate.


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## Kauri (29 April 2008)

caribean said:


> Did you pick up 10 pips Ap.?...i actualy was sitting on a short scalp, but got sick of waiting so i'm done for the night, good luck, mate.




watch the stops under 104...    on the yen
Cheers
............kauri


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## Kauri (29 April 2008)

Kauri said:


> watch the stops under 104...  on the yen
> Cheers
> ............kauri





   104 folded... nicely...  oppies taken out???

  Cheers
..........Kauri


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## Kauri (30 April 2008)

Kauri said:


> 104 folded... nicely... oppies taken out???
> 
> Cheers
> ..........Kauri




  In my haste to get down to the local off-license to stock up before KRudd strikes I all but forgot about the ring fence put up around the .5's oppies... thank Fosters for robots..

  Cheers
..............Kauri


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## caribean (30 April 2008)

> In my haste to get down to the local off-license to stock up before KRudd strikes I all but forgot about the ring fence put up around the .5's oppies... thank Fosters for robots..



Lol...i wish i wasn't such a sleepy head...you were not wrong about 104...option barrier,definitely,  it broke down just below it


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## caribean (30 April 2008)

I'm short the gbp/usd since about 19660...will se how it goes, it might be a fakeout.


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## caribean (30 April 2008)

Again, i didn't take the 30 points, got out at +3, i did have a target at 19600
but i wasn't prepared to go negative before it got there....


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## caribean (15 May 2008)

It's forming a bit of a triangle, and even though it's more ascending than anything,i still favor the short side (i'm not in a trade at the moment)


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## >Apocalypto< (15 May 2008)

hi fellas,

has been some great action on the Forex of late, my trading partner and good mate Wavepicker absolutely cleaned up this week to the tune of 200+ pips since Monday! hell of a effort and worth plugging! 

to the chart. man great action on the eur/usd this week I am up but missed so much due to work and sleep.

see a declining price HA trend director going red so see if it develops. I am looking for a trend continuation but that don't mean i will get it. watching and waiting.

Good piping!


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## >Apocalypto< (15 May 2008)

regards to my above post got a long and took 13 off it bed time now.

this why i don't tell markets what tell should do i wait and make my plays off that. 

i am a bar door!


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## Kauri (15 May 2008)

Have finally got my auto-robot running.. after a fashion... am trying to get  position sizing tuned in now.. been quite a battle getting thus far..so far..  

Cheers
.............Kauri


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## caribean (16 May 2008)

Good to see Ap., i don't know Wavepicker, but i've seen some of his analysis
and it makes sense to me, you're doing better than i, have been missing a lot due to distractions and hesitation.
Kauri, i don't know you that well, but i thought you'd be allergic to robots...
what's going, on have you signed up to the dark side?
Personaly, the only 'bot i 'd like would be the one that refills when you're empty, but then that would mean no more barmaids...lol, good luck with it.
Have got a nice bunch of traders together in my neck of the woods, it's good to get together and swap ideas every so often.


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## caribean (16 May 2008)

Anyone else tried shorting the Aussie? i'm holding on by the skin of my teeth


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## caribean (16 May 2008)

Out +14 points, Gold is showing a lot of strength, and the Aussie is just refusing to hit my target, a further 15 points or so...


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## Kauri (16 May 2008)

caribean said:


> Anyone else tried shorting the Aussie? i'm holding on by the skin of my teeth
> View attachment 20960




    Bot has me long..    ..
     Got tired of inventing new ways to open bottles so decided to give auto-trading a crack..    still working on automating the position sizing/risk control parameters...  

  Cheers
.............Kauri


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## Kauri (17 May 2008)

Stepped out for a whiles and the Bot jumped in long on EURGBP... something to be said for Bots... even if they are only running on a Demo platform... so far..   

Cheers
..........Kauri


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## >Apocalypto< (17 May 2008)

what a night on the Forex! 

made two wins on the euro usd a short and a long 35 in total for the night. God short termer's heaven!

moving house so I did not get to properly trade as I would have liked to! 

FOREX the place to be!


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## >Apocalypto< (17 May 2008)

Kauri said:


> Stepped out for a whiles and the Bot jumped in long on EURGBP... something to be said for Bots... even if they are only running on a Demo platform... so far..
> 
> Cheers
> ..........Kauri




nothing wrong with a bot on FX Kauri. Lets u get out of the required screen time to a degree!


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## caribean (17 May 2008)

Hi folks, that 'bot of yours Kauri seems to be working pretty well, how does it go on choppy conditions and false consolidation breakouts?
Hey Ap. you're doing well, good to see.
Gold has had a decent run, is it possible that it might be telling us something
about equity markets (even though they're going up as well) i'd like to know what sort of volumes are going through, has CBOT got anything on Gold?


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## Kauri (19 May 2008)

Still a few bugs need a dose of pyretherum,, but looking a bit better... thanks to the Loonie..

Cheers
.............Kauri


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## caribean (19 May 2008)

Tinie weenie 4.5 points on DAX, was looking for the 7200 short, but missed
the opp. due to interuptions....


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## Kauri (20 May 2008)

What I thought were bugs have turned out to be cockroaches... still running OK regardless on Demo of $2800 acct. balance and 1% risk..   

  Cheers
...........Kauri


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## >Apocalypto< (31 May 2008)

some intraday action on the euro tonight/this morning

long +36 pis off two lots. nice way to end the week.

Happy Piping


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## barney (31 May 2008)

>Apocalypto< said:


> long +36 pis off




No need to be unfriendly Apoc!   ............


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## >Apocalypto< (31 May 2008)

barney said:


> No need to be unfriendly Apoc!   ............




ha ha ha i did not even realize i wrote that it was early in the morning! I am sorry all for the remark


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## >Apocalypto< (25 June 2008)

Two trades.

Last night and tonight. +10 and +17

Nice spike tonight. 

Caribean, how are things rolling?


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## caribean (1 July 2008)

Hi there App.!!, sorry i haven't been around for a while, have been very busy.
Have spent a bit of time on an overseas forum, but generaly not posting much.
How are you going? collecting a few pips, no dought


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## >Apocalypto< (2 July 2008)

caribean said:


> Hi there App.!!, sorry i haven't been around for a while, have been very busy.
> Have spent a bit of time on an overseas forum, but generaly not posting much.
> How are you going? collecting a few pips, no dought




Hi Caribean,

what forum have u been on?

Yeh trading has been good some wins some losses. but staying in front.

developed my system to a state that is coming very good. using another method that's also showing great promise. but got to keep on working on them.

good to see you're still going!


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## caribean (17 July 2008)

Hey App (do you really want me to call you banner boy?)
one of those yank ones mate.
Tonight should be interesting,the majors seem to be forming flag patterns (not complete yet?), but i'm anticipating a long on JPY, and short on the other pairs, will be waiting for the price action to do it's tricks first, they are all close to where their retracements should end...i think, but of course could be totaly wrong,lol
The Aussie has broken an intermediate down TL& flag formation perhaps, so we'll see.....


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## caribean (17 July 2008)




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## caribean (17 July 2008)

Expecting a bit of res coming up on JPY, taking +25 and waiting for another opp.
...correction+20 always try to exit with a limit order, i've hit market and paid the price, no matter how many times i tell myself that, i still manage to do it on a regular basis...lol


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## caribean (17 July 2008)

This down TL has been,so far, a thing of rare beauty....lol


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## caribean (17 July 2008)

..even better if it makes it to 1.5760'ish tonight, and reverses long for tomorow, but that is cutting it a bit too fine...


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## caribean (24 July 2008)

Little trading scene...enjoy.
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=irYInw9B9BQ


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## caribean (23 August 2008)

Just a word on predictions and the rest of it, i have hourly and longer TF, set ups which provide me with a good general anticipation of where the main direction is going to be for the night.
The things i use to minimize the effect of a directional bias, are small TF's,
like 1 min, or 5 min, so in other words i do have an anticipated set up for the night, but, i try to keep it in the back of my mind, and let the finer TF's give me an opportunity to enter with a small risk.
So if the price action on say the 1 min provide me with an opp. to enter with a longer term view, that would be the trade i'll try to keep going by either minimum risk, or brought to break even as soon as reasonably possible.
I always try to improve my trading skills, predictions or not, if the price action tells me to go long or short, i follow it, and in the end that's what makes the difference....


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## caribean (26 August 2008)

German Ifo coming out at 6:00 PM, will see if that baby makes a dif. to the EUR


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## Kauri (26 August 2008)

This migght cause a ripple... 
Cheers
..........Kauri


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## Kauri (26 August 2008)

caribean said:


> German Ifo coming out at 6:00 PM, will see if that baby makes a dif. to the EUR




94.8, compared to the 97.2 forecast. ..
Cheers
...........Kauri


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## caribean (26 August 2008)

Yeah Kauri, you can almost feel a change happening in this crazy globe of ours, political balances are changing once again, and perhaps most people in the developed world have forgotten how miserable war is.


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## caribean (26 August 2008)

Kauri said:


> 94.8, compared to the 97.2 forecast. ..
> Cheers
> ...........Kauri



Thanks, i thought something of the kind, looking at the charts...lol


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## Kauri (26 August 2008)

caribean said:


> Thanks, i thought something of the kind, looking at the charts...lol




 Large option structure (not sure what flavour) at 146 Euro..will be defended strongly??.. so a good punch there will open up a pile of stops below..
the cable already broke options at 184 and caught a heap of stops below...

I thunk..
Cheers
..........Kauri


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## caribean (26 August 2008)

That explains it Kauri, 565 my target.


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## caribean (26 August 2008)

Nice consolidation, EUR/USD, Kauri are you watching this?


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## Kauri (26 August 2008)

caribean said:


> Nice consolidation, EUR/USD, Kauri are you watching this?




 I'm in the thick of it... cable adding a few extra links..   
If 146 Euro gives...  
Cheers
..........Kauri


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## Kauri (26 August 2008)

caribean said:


> That explains it Kauri, 565 my target.




EURO... More 146 expiries into weds... but currently a mass of stops lined up atween 585 and 570... I wonder if they will take a run at them??   
Cheers
.............Kauri


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## Kauri (26 August 2008)

At 14:00GMT the USA confidence gauge is forecast to rise to 53.0, from 51.9 in July. New home sales are forecast to fall to 525k, from 530k in June. The Richmond Fed index is forecast to improve to minus 10, from minus 16 in July. Minutes from the August 5 FOMC meeting will be published at 18:00GMT.

  I wont be/ am not fence sitting on this one ...  

  bit of a chilli night here ... I might pour in some anti-freeze methinks... apologies for any offence in advance..   
Cheers
............Kauri


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## caribean (26 August 2008)

volume has increased quite a bit, maybe the end of the doldrums...
glass of break fluid for me...


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## caribean (27 August 2008)

Nice break out, target missed by 6 pips.


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## caribean (13 October 2008)

This a "virgin" chart of the Aussie, the way i look at it first area of interest is the resistance overhead of 6535ish, and longer term the possible support of 5800ish.


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