# Speculative Stock Portfolio



## aus_trader

I buy a few speculative stocks every now and then with money I can afford to lose, so smallest parcels of around $500 each per stock. '...with money I can afford to lose' is very misleading as it sound like I have excess that I don't know what to do with ! Quite the opposite is true, I am an average Aussie battler and the money I put into these stocks is any free cash that I have after priorities are taken care of. Priorities are having sufficient funds for: mortgage, utility bills, car expenses, entire amount for monthly credit card balance (not the minimum repayment!), and living expenses (food/clothes etc). Once the basic priorities are taken care of, I have a few thousand in a cash account for emergencies or for a holiday. Then I have money put into longer  term stocks with some funds usually kept for new stock positions with a longer term horizon. With any remaining cash, I will buy speculative stocks mentioned in this thread. These include mining hopefuls, new technology startups and turnaround stories of companies trying to recover from near collapse. I have not been including these in my "*Medium/Longer Term Stock Portfolio*" as these tiny speculative stocks have wild swings such as 50% up or down days and once in a while one of these can go into administration and I will lose the entire stake in that stock, that's a 100% loss on that investment. So I didn't want that level of volatility in a longer term portfolio, hence the birth of this new thread "Speculative Stock Portfolio".

Although it's not common, I have had a few of them that went into bankruptcy either due to poor decision making (such as paying a huge amount for almost a worthless asset), racking up massive debts or running out of money and not being able to raise more capital. In these instances I have lost the amount put into that stock, usually around $500.

Two full paragraphs about Risks buying speculative stocks and depressive text about losing the entire investment in a stock. Usually speculative stock threads start with the biggest hype and excitement with predictions of the next tiny-cap stock that's shooting to the stars from what I've seen in forums. But with decade long experience and having survived through the GFC, I want to be realistic with the risk I'm taking with each speculative purchase.

So why put any money into these penny stocks anyway? Well, given the risk I'm taking, the story has to be big with each pick with potential to return multiple times the initial stake.

So the first stock for this portfolio is a new technology stock involved in using technology to cleanup environmental problems. These problems include air pollution, mining and chemical issues. Company is "Clean TeQ Holdings Limited (CLQ)" bought on 7th of July for 70.5c, a quantity of 750 shares.


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## tech/a

I've traded spec stocks for over 20 years.
My only must is liquidity.
100%+ gains are more frequent in shorter time
Frames 
I never take a trade prepared to lose the lot.

Watching with interest


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## ReXXar

aus_trader said:


> I buy a few speculative stocks every now and then with money I can afford to lose, so smallest parcels of around $500 each per stock. '...with money I can afford to lose' is very misleading as it sound like I have excess that I don't know what to do with ! Quite the opposite is true, I am an average Aussie battler and the money I put into these stocks is any free cash that I have after priorities are taken care of. Priorities are having sufficient funds for: mortgage, utility bills, car expenses, entire amount for monthly credit card balance (not the minimum repayment!), and living expenses (food/clothes etc). Once the basic priorities are taken care of, I have a few thousand in a cash account for emergencies or for a holiday. Then I have money put into longer  term stocks with some funds usually kept for new stock positions with a longer term horizon. With any remaining cash, I will buy speculative stocks mentioned in this thread. These include mining hopefuls, new technology startups and turnaround stories of companies trying to recover from near collapse. I have not been including these in my "*Medium/Longer Term Stock Portfolio*" as these tiny speculative stocks have wild swings such as 50% up or down days and once in a while one of these can go into administration and I will lose the entire stake in that stock, that's a 100% loss on that investment. So I didn't want that level of volatility in a longer term portfolio, hence the birth of this new thread "Speculative Stock Portfolio".
> 
> Although it's not common, I have had a few of them that went into bankruptcy either due to poor decision making (such as paying a huge amount for almost a worthless asset), racking up massive debts or running out of money and not being able to raise more capital. In these instances I have lost the amount put into that stock, usually around $500.
> 
> Two full paragraphs about Risks buying speculative stocks and depressive text about losing the entire investment in a stock. Usually speculative stock threads start with the biggest hype and excitement with predictions of the next tiny-cap stock that's shooting to the stars from what I've seen in forums. But with decade long experience and having survived through the GFC, I want to be realistic with the risk I'm taking with each speculative purchase.
> 
> So why put any money into these penny stocks anyway? Well, given the risk I'm taking, the story has to be big with each pick with potential to return multiple times the initial stake.
> 
> So the first stock for this portfolio is a new technology stock involved in using technology to cleanup environmental problems. These problems include air pollution, mining and chemical issues. Company is "Clean TeQ Holdings Limited (CLQ)" bought on 7th of July for 70.5c, a quantity of 750 shares.




Maybe I shouldn't be but I do feel concerned when you say you put all your free cash into "speculative stocks".  If you take care of the downside the upside will take care of itself. So let me ask you, what made you choose CLQ??  I cannot overstate the damage you do to your portfolio when you permanently lose your capital, $500 invested in an index fund and averaged 10% return over 10 years becomes $1300.  Please bear this in mind.  In the long-term the index should average something similar if you can stand the volatility.  And with only a few thousand dollars in your bank, if you need to raise money quickly for emergency for small caps often you will be forced to sell in an illiquid market at terrible price (if there's buyers at all).


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## aus_trader

tech/a said:


> I never take a trade prepared to lose the lot.



With more years in the market than myself I will take your comments on board Tech/A. I will look at implementing some sort of stop loss strategy for the stocks like CLQ which has better liquidity and price is higher. My dilemma is when it comes to a say 0.8c stock with little liquidity with the nearest buyer at 0.6c! Can't see how I can implement a stop loss strategy in this case...


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## aus_trader

ReXXar said:


> And with only a few thousand dollars in your bank, if you need to raise money quickly for emergency for small caps often you will be forced to sell in an illiquid market at terrible price (if there's buyers at all).



I do agree with you here ReXXar, it will be hard to get out at my desired price. The reason for buying CLQ is for it's potential to become something bigger if it's technology can be used for more applications or grow via winning more customers.


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## Boggo

aus_trader said:


> With more years in the market than myself I will take your comments on board Tech/A. I will look at implementing some sort of stop loss strategy for the stocks like CLQ which has better liquidity and price is higher. *My dilemma is when it comes to a say 0.8c stock with little liquidity with the nearest buyer at 0.6c! Can't see how I can implement a stop loss strategy in this case...*




and that is why you don't buy that stock !


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## tech/a

aus_trader said:


> With more years in the market than myself I will take your comments on board Tech/A. I will look at implementing some sort of stop loss strategy for the stocks like CLQ which has better liquidity and price is higher. My dilemma is when it comes to a say 0.8c stock with little liquidity with the nearest buyer at 0.6c! Can't see how I can implement a stop loss strategy in this case...





Boggo beat me to it.

Rule 1 liquidity
Rule 2 see rule 1


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## Cam019

aus_trader said:


> The reason for buying CLQ is for it's potential to become something bigger if it's technology can be used for more applications or grow via winning more customers.



I'm a little confused @aus_trader. Is there any sort of analysis, be it fundamental or technical, happening before you pick a stock for this portfolio or are you just randomly picking stocks that you think will go up? I understand that this is a speculative portfolio but if the answer is the latter, I think you may be in for some trouble unless you get lucky.


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## aus_trader

Boggo said:


> and that is why you don't buy that stock !



 I am open to suggestions and flexible to change my strategy along the way. So thank you Boggo and tech/A for your comments.

So rather than deciding not to touch any of the stocks in the "Penny Dreadful" space and closing down this thread, I will make changes to see if something positive can come out of this as I go along. So after giving some thought about all of your comments, I have reviewed some of the stocks that I have bought in the past that fits this "Speculative Stock" space. And I am coming to the realisation that it would be better to go for the higher priced / more liquid stocks even in this small cap space. So going forward I will make the following changes to this portfolio:

If there are two or more stocks that I've come across that presents me with a compelling story good enough to include in this portfolio, I will go for the higher priced stock. For example let's say I come across two stocks a promising biotech and a junior mining hopeful. I don't care which one I buy as they both present with a good potential for upside based on my own research and opinion. One stock is 2c and other stock is 20c. What do I do? In the past my thinking was 2c stock could have more upside so I may buy that instead of the 20c stock. To explain further, my limiting belief was that the 20c stock may double to 40c, what if the 2c stock got to 40c! That's 20 times the original stake. Anyway from today onward, I will let go of that limiting belief and buy the 20c stock without hesitation in this situation, as ReXXar mentioned "If you take care of the downside the upside will take care of itself". So if I take care of the downside by not buying the 2c stock with no liquidity to get out even at 1c,  I may still have a chance to get out of the 20c stock with enough liquidity at 15c if the story changes or if I get tired of holding the stock that is not realising it's potential. Who is to say that the 20c stock cannot ever get to say $2 , a cool upside.


Although each stock is different, I will look at getting out of stocks that are going down or not going anywhere for a prolonged period of time. So it's not an exact stop loss method but a loose capital preservation method that can be deployed with higher priced / more liquid stocks.
So with the above in mind, I will be limited with opportunities to add to this speculative portfolio therefore allowing me to increase my savings as pointed out by ReXXar. The extra savings will be used to grow my emergency cash buffer and for adding funds to my ""*Medium/Longer Term Stock Portfolio*". By the way love the name "ReXXar" as it takes me back to the good old days playing Warcraft III .


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## ReXXar

aus_trader said:


> I am open to suggestions and flexible to change my strategy along the way. So thank you Boggo and tech/A for your comments.
> 
> So rather than deciding not to touch any of the stocks in the "Penny Dreadful" space and closing down this thread, I will make changes to see if something positive can come out of this as I go along. So after giving some thought about all of your comments, I have reviewed some of the stocks that I have bought in the past that fits this "Speculative Stock" space. And I am coming to the realisation that it would be better to go for the higher priced / more liquid stocks even in this small cap space. So going forward I will make the following changes to this portfolio:
> 
> If there are two or more stocks that I've come across that presents me with a compelling story good enough to include in this portfolio, I will go for the higher priced stock. For example let's say I come across two stocks a promising biotech and a junior mining hopeful. I don't care which one I buy as they both present with a good potential for upside based on my own research and opinion. One stock is 2c and other stock is 20c. What do I do? In the past my thinking was 2c stock could have more upside so I may buy that instead of the 20c stock. To explain further, my limiting belief was that the 20c stock may double to 40c, what if the 2c stock got to 40c! That's 20 times the original stake. Anyway from today onward, I will let go of that limiting belief and buy the 20c stock without hesitation in this situation, as ReXXar mentioned "If you take care of the downside the upside will take care of itself". So if I take care of the downside by not buying the 2c stock with no liquidity to get out even at 1c,  I may still have a chance to get out of the 20c stock with enough liquidity at 15c if the story changes or if I get tired of holding the stock that is not realising it's potential. Who is to say that the 20c stock cannot ever get to say $2 , a cool upside.
> 
> 
> Although each stock is different, I will look at getting out of stocks that are going down or not going anywhere for a prolonged period of time. So it's not an exact stop loss method but a loose capital preservation method that can be deployed with higher priced / more liquid stocks.
> So with the above in mind, I will be limited with opportunities to add to this speculative portfolio therefore allowing me to increase my savings as pointed out by ReXXar. The extra savings will be used to grow my emergency cash buffer and for adding funds to my ""*Medium/Longer Term Stock Portfolio*". By the way love the name "ReXXar" as it takes me back to the good old days playing Warcraft III .




You're the first person who know the meaning behind the name, I managed to find a glitch in the game where I keep coming back to the same tree and powering up, God knows how many hours I did that and in the end I was literally invincible without any cheats.

Dear sir, I don't usually give personal financial advice to people I don't know, you sound like a decent guy, so PLEASE, I beg of you, sell all your stocks at once and put it in an online high interest savings account for time being and save up for a deposit for a property first. Manage downside risk has nothing to do with price.  What you are doing here is nothing short of gambling, it is precisely people like you others take advantage of.  I'm sure you can become a great stockpicker, but you need to develop your own system first, that will take tremendous time and effort. While you're saving up, why not develop and test your system with simulated money?  The confidence you get from your system is far more worthwhile than a high return from a "speculative stock". There's a book called "The Richest Man in Babylon", you can probably download it for free, one of the principles is never invest in something you don't understand.  Think about this often and heed this advice with whatever you invest in life.

Take care,

Rex


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## aus_trader

Cam019 said:


> I'm a little confused @aus_trader. Is there any sort of analysis, be it fundamental or technical, happening before you pick a stock for this portfolio or are you just randomly picking stocks that you think will go up? I understand that this is a speculative portfolio but if the answer is the latter, I think you may be in for some trouble unless you get lucky.



I look at a lot of stocks if I can spare the time, usually in the higher priced / better established stocks. But as I flick through different stocks there are these smaller stocks that I come across. Most of them will not catch my attention but every now and then I will like the story behind it and I will investigate further. If after a lot of research and due diligence if I still see some potential in the story I may buy it.

Since you quoted CLQ, I will explain a little further. CLQ is put in this portfolio as a new tech company. It has (or in the process of developing) technologies for water treatment, air purification and resource recovery. It's at the higher priced end of the stocks that I would consider and it's bigger than some of the stocks that I have bought in the past in this speculative small cap realm. But it's not rolling in profits to pay dividends yet, hence being included in the speculative space. However the story is compelling enough for me even if I only consider one of it's three technologies: resource recovery. Given that mining is big business (especially in our OZ), companies that can improve resource recovery via new technology has a lot of potential. A lot of mines produce one type of material and a huge waste heap. Imagine being able to extract one or two other materials during processing using new technologies. So I am comfortable with keeping it in the portfolio, but as mentioned in the previous discussion I will watch it and check it's progress.


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## Boggo

aus_trader said:


> I am open to suggestions and flexible to change my strategy along the way. So thank you Boggo and tech/A for your comments.
> 
> To explain further, my limiting belief was that the 20c stock may double to 40c, *what if the 2c stock got to 40c! That's 20 times the original stake*.




I have to congratulate you first of all aus_trader, you are half way there because you seem to be listening.
A lot of newcomers pop up but then disappear just as quickly when good advice gets taken as criticism.

I would guess that a lot of us on here have started off with some form of grandiose ideas but after getting hammered a few times you either give up or modify your methods.
Learning is behaviour modified by experience, capitalise on the experience of others that is being handed to you.

The bit I have highlighted in blue above, that is the mentality that people go into casinos with, doesn't work in the market aus_trader and if it does its more ass than class, think of yourself as the casino instead.

Cheers


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## aus_trader

ReXXar said:


> You're the first person who know the meaning behind the name, I managed to find a glitch in the game where I keep coming back to the same tree and powering up, God knows how many hours I did that and in the end I was literally invincible without any cheats.
> 
> Dear sir, I don't usually give personal financial advice to people I don't know, you sound like a decent guy, so PLEASE, I beg of you, sell all your stocks at once and put it in an online high interest savings account for time being and save up for a deposit for a property first. Manage downside risk has nothing to do with price.  What you are doing here is nothing short of gambling, it is precisely people like you others take advantage of.  I'm sure you can become a great stockpicker, but you need to develop your own system first, that will take tremendous time and effort. While you're saving up, why not develop and test your system with simulated money?  The confidence you get from your system is far more worthwhile than a high return from a "speculative stock". There's a book called "The Richest Man in Babylon", you can probably download it for free, one of the principles is never invest in something you don't understand.  Think about this often and heed this advice with whatever you invest in life.
> 
> Take care,
> 
> Rex



Thanks Rex, Yes ReXXar was one of the best characters in Warcraft.

I take your comments very seriously, don't get me wrong. But each of our styles of investing/trading/gambling are different and just like you I have read dozens of books in the world of investing, trading, system development etc etc. One thing that struck me in one of the books that looked at some of the most successful investors/traders in the world was that no two investors/traders were the same. Some were fundamental, some technical, some short term and others long term. Yet each of them had their own way of doing well in the market.

Anyway, have achieved the house deposit a while ago and now just paying the mortgage. Also on the side, looking at ways to increase the returns on my share portfolio (on both longer term one and this speculative one) as high interest saving accounts pay very little interest these days. In the past have tried all sorts of systems, methods, indicators on all sorts of instruments such as stocks, Forex, indexes, commodities etc etc. I was so deep in this stuff that towards the end I was coding my own indicators, automated robots, black box systems and hosting the automated bots (robots that is) on VPS (Virtual Private Servers) all over the net such that I (my robots) would never miss a trade even if the whole country had a blackout. Sorry about the brag but chances are if there is another gizmo, I probably would have tried it out already, but it does not mean I wouldn't have a look at it. The one thing I learnt from all of this full on in-depth obsession for years and years is that all systems can work for a while if the market obeys by the rules that the system is based on. But the market is free to do what it wants!

One thing I will take from all the comments from everyone is that I will be putting very little capital into this spec portfolio than originally planned. Not only that, I will monitor the positions more vigorously once in the portfolio.


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## aus_trader

Boggo said:


> I have to congratulate you first of all aus_trader, you are half way there because you seem to be listening.
> A lot of newcomers pop up but then disappear just as quickly when good advice gets taken as criticism.
> 
> I would guess that a lot of us that have been here for a while started off with some form of grandiose ideas but after getting hammered a few times you either give up or modify your methods.
> Learning is behaviour modified by experience, capitalise on the experience of others that is being handed to you.
> 
> The bit I have highlighted in blue above, that is the mentality that people go into casinos with, doesn't work in the market aus_trader and if it does its more ass than class, think of yourself as the casino instead.
> 
> Cheers




Yes, the highlighted in blue section hardly ever happens, so it was just an exaggerated example. I have come across material relating to becoming the casino with options writing etc. Any ideas Boggo?


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## Boggo

aus_trader said:


> Yes, the highlighted in blue section hardly ever happens, so it was just an exaggerated example. I have come across material relating to becoming the casino with options writing etc. Any ideas Boggo?




Not really. I'm pretty basic, stocks, etf's and occasionally installment warrants for a bit of leveridge or to capitalise on dividends is about my limit.


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## ReXXar

aus_trader said:


> Thanks Rex, Yes ReXXar was one of the best characters in Warcraft.
> 
> I take your comments very seriously, don't get me wrong. But each of our styles of investing/trading/gambling are different and just like you I have read dozens of books in the world of investing, trading, system development etc etc. One thing that struck me in one of the books that looked at some of the most successful investors/traders in the world was that no two investors/traders were the same. Some were fundamental, some technical, some short term and others long term. Yet each of them had their own way of doing well in the market.
> 
> Anyway, have achieved the house deposit a while ago and now just paying the mortgage. Also on the side, looking at ways to increase the returns on my share portfolio (on both longer term one and this speculative one) as high interest saving accounts pay very little interest these days. In the past have tried all sorts of systems, methods, indicators on all sorts of instruments such as stocks, Forex, indexes, commodities etc etc. I was so deep in this stuff that towards the end I was coding my own indicators, automated robots, black box systems and hosting the automated bots (robots that is) on VPS (Virtual Private Servers) all over the net such that I (my robots) would never miss a trade even if the whole country had a blackout. Sorry about the brag but chances are if there is another gizmo, I probably would have tried it out already, but it does not mean I wouldn't have a look at it. The one thing I learnt from all of this full on in-depth obsession for years and years is that all systems can work for a while if the market obeys by the rules that the system is based on. But the market is free to do what it wants!
> 
> One thing I will take from all the comments from everyone is that I will be putting very little capital into this spec portfolio than originally planned. Not only that, I will monitor the positions more vigorously once in the portfolio.




OK, if you want to speculate, at least try to avoid companies with high debt, that way at least you will not lose entire $500.  Your technical experience is valuable, combine it with your fundamental analysis and try to forget the story and more on determining a value for the company.  The best way to hedge risk is to buy quality companies at cheap prices, nothing to do with liquidity or price.  Good luck my friend!


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## tech/a

Don't over think this.

Rule 3 consider stocks with over $250000 a day average T/O for the last 10 days
Rule 4 Learn fixed fractional position sizing then learn ratchetting of stops.(widen initially)
Rule 5 choose stock on the move showing a strong volume support base/level.

NUH
BUB

Are two possible examples of late.


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## aus_trader

Cheers Boggo and ReXXar, I will also try and keep it simple (simple is good) and also pay more attention to debt and cash burn levels to see how long the spec stock can survive before having to raise capital again going forward...

No ETF's here for speculation, but I do like them and the closest I have to an ETF is APL in my "*Medium/Longer Term Stock Portfolio*".


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## aus_trader

tech/a said:


> Don't over think this.
> 
> Rule 3 consider stocks with over $250000 a day average T/O for the last 10 days
> Rule 4 Learn fixed fractional position sizing then learn ratchetting of stops.(widen initially)
> Rule 5 choose stock on the move showing a strong volume support base/level.
> 
> NUH
> BUB
> 
> Are two possible examples of late.



Do like the stocks for their good trading volumes and they are heading higher.


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## aus_trader

Got a chance to put the new guidelines / rules into practice today with two stocks added to portfolio in the Resource / Mining sector. 

By the way, thank you everyone for your contributions for keeping me on the right track and as Boggo mentioned earlier, I don't take any suggestions / advice as criticism.

*1.* Staying away from the hottie to pick up the ugly duckling...

The first stock is in the resource sector with Lithium exposure. This commodity has been getting a fair amount of attention and media coverage due to Lithium Ion batteries used in so many devices such as mobile phones and power tools and with the latest demand coming from electric vehicles. 

I came across a few stocks with exposure to Lithium and was weighing between two of them: Lithium Australia FPO (LIT) and Neometals Ltd (NMT). So here is where the rubber meets the road as to following the adaptations to the rules as mentioned above. Without new rules or further investigation LIT would have been the choice. It's the hot pick (rumor has it, share price doubled in the last 3 trading days from 7.5c to 16c currently). Also got the looks... I mean the name, the lower price and everyone's attention with huge volume traded. But rules are rules so I am going with the higher priced stock NMT at 30c. Details of the story below...

Bit more of the in-depth analysis for the above choice. Looking beyond the surface shows LIT is a bit complicated with the recent bid for Lepidico Ltd (LPD) so not sure how involved... I mean how much of LPD has been acquired so far... Also given the share price has rocketed up in the last few days, I am not comfortable buying at current levels. With NMT, it's been a quiet achiever in my opinion. Has negotiated off-take negotiations at Mt Marion Lithium with Ganfeng Lithium Co. and started production recently. Has ~ $53m cash and ~$16m investments and receivables so that should address the debt/cash burn concerns in the rules. Has good liquidity to get in/out for small parcels of shares like mine. It's not a single commodity play either as it has diversification with a Titanium resource in development phase as well. Also the founders still have a significant stake and directorships in the company. That's the "Reed" family and NMT was called "Reed Resources" back in the day. Got surprised to see that it has paid dividends two times last year too, which is unusual for a small resource company.

*2.* Getting some exposure to Gas / LNG

With a fair bit of media coverage about the East Coast gas supply shortages and Liquified Natural Gas (LNG) getting a bit of attention of late, I've been on the lookout for companies with exposure to this sector. The easier way for me would be to buy a Oil/Gas giant like WPL or STO and see if there is any upside there... Well, this is supposed to be my speculative portfolio not some blue chip portfolio. Looked at a lot of oil/gas hopefuls and most of what I came across don't have anything big. Just drilling holes looking for the next oil/gas play and burning through cash. Today I came across Liquified Natural FPO (LNG) which has gapped up on big volume last Wednesday 5th of July. So just wanted to find out if there was a story to this. It happens to be due to securing funding for it's Magnolia LNG project, a whopping 1.5 billion! Which bank can I get that from ? 

There is a cash pot of ~$50m in the bank according to last reported figures, so that addresses cash at hand / debt issues. Especially with the funding news liquidity seems to be plentiful so I should not have any problem exiting at or very close to market prices if I need to.


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## tech/a

So
How are you going to Manage the trade.
Meaning day to day from entry now to exit.

What will you do if the price falls slowly or fast
The price rises---slowly or fast

How did you determine position size?
Are you running a stop--if so how will you manage that 

Just for interest I'm running a marked up chart on these 2 (my notes)
And make comments on the chart daily as in management.
Once you close one or both I'll post it if you like.


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## aus_trader

tech/a said:


> So
> How are you going to Manage the trade.
> Meaning day to day from entry now to exit.
> 
> What will you do if the price falls slowly or fast
> The price rises---slowly or fast
> 
> How did you determine position size?
> Are you running a stop--if so how will you manage that
> 
> Just for interest I'm running a marked up chart on these 2 (my notes)
> And make comments on the chart daily as in management.
> Once you close one or both I'll post it if you like.




Thank you tech/a, it'll be interesting to see your thoughts on a chart once the position closes.

Not sure about the speed (slow or fast) but if the price does keep on falling I do intend to get out, after all the reason for buying is with the expectation that the price will go up. So yes I'll monitor each position and manage going forward...


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## dj_420

aus_trader said:


> Got a chance to put the new guidelines / rules into practice today with two stocks added to portfolio in the Resource / Mining sector.
> 
> By the way, thank you everyone for your contributions for keeping me on the right track and as Boggo mentioned earlier, I don't take any suggestions / advice as criticism.
> 
> *1.* Staying away from the hottie to pick up the ugly duckling...
> 
> The first stock is in the resource sector with Lithium exposure. This commodity has been getting a fair amount of attention and media coverage due to Lithium Ion batteries used in so many devices such as mobile phones and power tools and with the latest demand coming from electric vehicles.
> 
> I came across a few stocks with exposure to Lithium and was weighing between two of them: Lithium Australia FPO (LIT) and Neometals Ltd (NMT). So here is where the rubber meets the road as to following the adaptations to the rules as mentioned above. Without new rules or further investigation LIT would have been the choice. It's the hot pick (rumor has it, share price doubled in the last 3 trading days from 7.5c to 16c currently). Also got the looks... I mean the name, the lower price and everyone's attention with huge volume traded. But rules are rules so I am going with the higher priced stock NMT at 30c. Details of the story below...
> 
> Bit more of the in-depth analysis for the above choice. Looking beyond the surface shows LIT is a bit complicated with the recent bid for Lepidico Ltd (LPD) so not sure how involved... I mean how much of LPD has been acquired so far... Also given the share price has rocketed up in the last few days, I am not comfortable buying at current levels. With NMT, it's been a quiet achiever in my opinion. Has negotiated off-take negotiations at Mt Marion Lithium with Ganfeng Lithium Co. and started production recently. Has ~ $53m cash and ~$16m investments and receivables so that should address the debt/cash burn concerns in the rules. Has good liquidity to get in/out for small parcels of shares like mine. It's not a single commodity play either as it has diversification with a Titanium resource in development phase as well. Also the founders still have a significant stake and directorships in the company. That's the "Reed" family and NMT was called "Reed Resources" back in the day. Got surprised to see that it has paid dividends two times last year too, which is unusual for a small resource company.
> 
> *2.* Getting some exposure to Gas / LNG
> 
> With a fair bit of media coverage about the East Coast gas supply shortages and Liquified Natural Gas (LNG) getting a bit of attention of late, I've been on the lookout for companies with exposure to this sector. The easier way for me would be to buy a Oil/Gas giant like WPL or STO and see if there is any upside there... Well, this is supposed to be my speculative portfolio not some blue chip portfolio. Looked at a lot of oil/gas hopefuls and most of what I came across don't have anything big. Just drilling holes looking for the next oil/gas play and burning through cash. Today I came across Liquified Natural FPO (LNG) which has gapped up on big volume last Wednesday 5th of July. So just wanted to find out if there was a story to this. It happens to be due to securing funding for it's Magnolia LNG project, a whopping 1.5 billion! Which bank can I get that from ?
> 
> There is a cash pot of ~$50m in the bank according to last reported figures, so that addresses cash at hand / debt issues. Especially with the funding news liquidity seems to be plentiful so I should not have any problem exiting at or very close to market prices if I need to.
> 
> View attachment 71817




Would be interesting to follow but having worked in the industry for so long the gems are so few and far between it really is a lottery trying to pick a good mining/exploration stock. What is easier is to follow commodity trends and identify well run companies that are involved in your pick of the commodities.

One of the stats I saw way back when, was that out of 1,000 greenfields exploration projects, 1 will be a successful project and be able to transition to mining.

The majority of those speculative miners/explorers just mine the pockets of mum and dad investors. Having worked in the industry and knowing how these companies operate makes me want to run for the hills!


----------



## Quant

dj_420 said:


> One of the stats I saw way back when, was that out of 1,000 greenfields exploration projects, 1 will be a successful project and be able to transition to mining.
> 
> The majority of those speculative miners/explorers just mine the pockets of mum and dad investors. Having worked in the industry and knowing how these companies operate makes me want to run for the hills!



Well the old saying goes something like this  " A mine is just a hole with a Liar on top "


----------



## dj_420

A lot of explorers will pick up ground that has 'potential' for a particular commodity, spruik it to market, watch the sp run and then do a cap raise.

Directors can then pay themselves a very healthy salary without doing much on-ground work and then rinse and repeat in the future.

You really need to look at the track records of these companies. If they have been involved in every different metal over the past decade and have a long history of raising money without doing exploration then personally I would avoid.

There are genuine ones, but there are also companies that have less than stellar performance and/or management.


----------



## aus_trader

dj_420 said:


> The majority of those speculative miners/explorers just mine the pockets of mum and dad investors. Having worked in the industry and knowing how these companies operate makes me want to run for the hills!




Totally get this, I've been burnt a quite few times during the mining boom chasing exploration companies who has promised to be the next big miner and not becoming one. I've held on for years with hopes of a turnaround in fortunes but too many times have seen them disappear bankrupt along with my investment.

So it's been a boom for Australia and some of the lucky few. Not for me, let me explain. I'll be honest and say although I have made a few gains on picking the right explorer that has become a miner therefore good gains along the way, most of the picks have been duds with huge promises that has not delivered. Overall I am down if I consider all of my exploration/mining/mining services picks. So looking back now and re-evaluating now, I would have been better off if I stayed away from the mining sector altogether right through the boom. I don't beat myself up though; the country was going through a once in a lifetime mining boom and it's easy to get attracted to try and have a small slice of it.

With the help of contributors like yourself I have changed my strategies and even with the mining picks in this portfolio I have picked the higher priced / slightly bigger capped (still small caps) / more liquid juniors and will monitor them pedantically. If things aren't going according to plan, I will sell out of the positions given they have the liquidity to get out.


----------



## dj_420

aus_trader said:


> Totally get this, I've been burnt a quite few times during the mining boom chasing exploration companies who has promised to be the next big miner and not becoming one. I've held on for years with hopes of a turnaround in fortunes but too many times have seen them disappear bankrupt along with my investment.
> 
> So it's been a boom for Australia and some of the lucky few. Not for me, let me explain. I'll be honest and say although I have made a few gains on picking the right explorer that has become a miner therefore good gains along the way, most of the picks have been duds with huge promises that has not delivered. Overall I am down if I consider all of my exploration/mining/mining services picks. So looking back now and re-evaluating now, I would have been better off if I stayed away from the mining sector altogether right through the boom. I don't beat myself up though; the country was going through a once in a lifetime mining boom and it's easy to get attracted to try and have a small slice of it.
> 
> With the help of contributors like yourself I have changed my strategies and even with the mining picks in this portfolio I have picked the higher priced / slightly bigger capped (still small caps) / more liquid juniors and will monitor them pedantically. If things aren't going according to plan, I will sell out of the positions given they have the liquidity to get out.



My biggest advice would be to look at track records of management and the exploration team. Quality exploration outfits will normally in turn select good projects and ground to explore.

It hard, we did really well out of juniors back pre GFC, but since then the times I've dabbled and haven't had a repeat of those returns. Essentially what I was doing was a sector rotation breakout strategy.

I also now have a tendency to avoid the mining/oil and gas sectors.


----------



## aus_trader

Thanks mate, I'll try to keep that in mind about who's managing the company, as I did check with NMT to see that the directors included original Reed Resources members with skin in the game.

Looking back, I also had better success pre-GFC from mining/exploration plays. After GFC, the losses outweighed any rare gains. I think we are well past the days of picking any old mining/exploration stock with big promises by the management that goes up hundreds of percent. Any selections have to be extremely well researched and a lot of due diligence has to be carried out about the prospects, facts and figures of they have and as you mentioned who is managing it.


----------



## aus_trader

Some news came out today for Clean Teq (CLQ) with it's Nickel/Cobolt project where technology is used to extract these metals. Company has been producing samples and proving the technology at small scale. With today's announcement of buying "Autoclaves" mining/extracting equipment company looks to be paving the way towards larger production of these metals. Bought for $6.5m which according to company is a "Substantial capital saving". So they are being prudent with spending from their $88m cash reserve.


----------



## aus_trader

Been sifting through a lot of hay lately...

..To find that needle in a haystack to add another position to this portfolio. Few stories here and there but bit risky at this stage with prices jumping around all over the place and trading at cents...

The more established companies are a different story and well run companies can attract a premium to it's trading price as can be seen with the hefty premium offered to Programmed Maintenance (PRG) take-over.

So added NRW Holdings Limited (NWH) to my longer term stock portfolio. Details in that thread...


----------



## aus_trader

Bought the Oil and gas prospect 'Buru Energy (BRU)' today due to big price drop after it announced a capital raise via 1 or 5 Rights Issue. I thought the share price has probably been unfairly hammered for a capital raising that is not too big (1 for 5) and company says the two major shareholders will support it.

BRU started producing oil at the Ungani project recently and says it has a operating margin of $25 to $30 per barrel and may improve further if oil price nudges higher... Also has some gas prospects in it's project pipeline.


----------



## aus_trader

Something different to the mining and energy related stocks, which is what I've been looking at mainly recently...

Been going through lots of stocks in the higher priced speculative end of the market but rarely any of the stories caught my attention. So I've  been also looking at stocks in the ultra speculative space trading for just a couple of cents. Most are so thinly traded and bid/ask spread is huge for me to consider, even if it had a little interesting prospect...

One caught my eye due to news release in the last few days and it's background story was interesting. The company is Ultracharge Ltd (UTR) and it is in the process of developing a new type of Anode for Lithium-Ion batteries that is meant to improve on the current technology. According to company's info this allows fast charging and improves the batteries life. In my opinion this could be just type of technology that can play an important role with expansion of Li-Ion battery use into the future such as in power tools and electric vehicles.

I made the exception to buy this stock despite trading for pennies because there seems to be good volume traded on it and bid/ask is very close, so getting in and out should be OK. The recent news that caught my eye was another technology they are involving into with "new battery storage technology".


----------



## tech/a

Personally I think you'll have a great deal of difficulty turning a profit attempting to analyse smalls in this speculative portfolio.

I know your fundamentally based
But finding momentum
Hopping on board and getting off it when it stops
I have found to be successful.

You have to get what you can when the market gives it to you
And not sit there waiting for it.
Particularly if it's going South.

Just sayin.


----------



## Wysiwyg

aus_trader said:


> In the past have tried all sorts of systems, methods, indicators on all sorts of instruments such as stocks, Forex, indexes, commodities etc etc. I was so deep in this stuff that towards the end I was coding my own indicators, automated robots, black box systems and hosting the automated bots (robots that is) on VPS (Virtual Private Servers) all over the net such that I (my robots) would never miss a trade even if the whole country had a blackout. Sorry about the brag but chances are if there is another gizmo, I probably would have tried it out already, but it does not mean I wouldn't have a look at it. The one thing I learnt from all of this full on in-depth obsession for years and years is that all systems can work for a while if the market obeys by the rules that the system is based on. But the market is free to do what it wants!



This doesn't make sense. You trade like a newbie yet have all those experiences above to learn from.


----------



## aus_trader

tech/a said:


> Personally I think you'll have a great deal of difficulty turning a profit attempting to analyse smalls in this speculative portfolio.
> 
> I know your fundamentally based
> But finding momentum
> Hopping on board and getting off it when it stops
> I have found to be successful.
> 
> You have to get what you can when the market gives it to you
> And not sit there waiting for it.
> Particularly if it's going South.
> 
> Just sayin.



I think you might be on the money on this one. Some of the momentum stocks you've mentioned have run up hard and would've returned exceptional results in a very short time too.

In my case it's a different, although I am not a buy and hold (forever) type investor/trader, I do have to be somewhat patient for the potential to realise over time.


----------



## aus_trader

Wysiwyg said:


> This doesn't make sense. You trade like a newbie yet have all those experiences above to learn from.



Yes I have tried all sorts of short term strategies, automation, day trading etc etc. Experience was valuable sweating it out day and night but I didn't make the money to show for it. Made a bit but probably peanuts for the hours I was putting in. Even with robots it's not set and forget and count how much money it's made. They can quickly rack up losses when market conditions change and sometimes there is headaches with technical glitches and broker cheats (mysteriously widening spreads etc) to deal with.

Anyway that was in the past and I don't have the time for that stuff nowadays. I do a bit of stock research when I get free time and I enjoy that.

So that's a bit of background. Do you have any suggestions?


----------



## Wysiwyg

aus_trader said:


> Do you have any suggestions?



For one, assess your entry price. For example (and I don't know it all by using hindsight) your entry price for LNG. That stock caught my attention too and the 'impulsive' trading action would be to buy on the news. Low success entry point in my experience. Same with the impulsive action of buying bad news thinking of catching a bounce or 'believe' the price is cheap. They are high risk examples and can be traded but you must be willing to kill the trade immediately it goes against you. With LNG you waited till the 11th before buying and it appears you believed from the previous trading day rise there was goiung to be continuation to the spike highs. You bought intraday mid range and look at what traders did on that day. They sold which is indicated by the price spiking higher to previous resistance points (69c - 70 c) and closed way lower on above average volume. The ensuing price action "confirmed" traders were no longer bullish and you still hold. 

We can't get it right every time but don't buy when the bulls are selling and look for signs before. 
Hope that is understandable.


----------



## aus_trader

Wysiwyg said:


> For one, assess your entry price. For example (and I don't know it all by using hindsight) your entry price for LNG. That stock caught my attention too and the 'impulsive' trading action would be to buy on the news. Low success entry point in my experience. Same with the impulsive action of buying bad news thinking of catching a bounce or 'believe' the price is cheap. They are high risk examples and can be traded but you must be willing to kill the trade immediately it goes against you. With LNG you waited till the 11th before buying and it appears you believed from the previous trading day rise there was goiung to be continuation to the spike highs. You bought intraday mid range and look at what traders did on that day. They sold which is indicated by the price spiking higher to previous resistance points (69c - 70 c) and closed way lower on above average volume. The ensuing price action "confirmed" traders were no longer bullish and you still hold.
> 
> We can't get it right every time but don't buy when the bulls are selling and look for signs before.
> Hope that is understandable.



Good Technical Analysis I must say.
LNG has slowly drifted south and closed the gap that was made on the news. I will give it a little more room/time before considering to remove from portfolio. At some point it may rally if all goes to plan and they complete the Magnolia project so I'll keep watch even if I sell at a loss.


----------



## aus_trader

Today added a stock that is higher priced with good volumes being traded. It's a gold miner with a bang. I've been following it's progress for a long time and for a short period I've been trying to buy it at a slightly better price by bidding slightly below market price but it kept getting bid up higher, so I missed out...

So today I decided to get out on market street gunz blazing (like Ma Barker and her sons) and raid the market for some Alkane Resources Limited (ALK) shares. No bargain hunting to save a few cents today, paid high price offered as ALK was making higher highs.

A little background story on the stock as I've followed it's progress over the years. At one stage it had a very good portfolio of gold projects including a multi-million Oz gold deposit near Orange, NSW from memory. Don't remember the name of the project but ALK sold this mother of a project (for a small cap mining hopeful) and just kept little Tommy... That was my take on it and since then I've had a look at it's progress every now and then but I didn't have much interest in buying the stock until just recently. Just recently they have started producing Gold! They have slowly developed what I called little Tommy, well it's actually called Tomingley Gold Project and now generating good cash-flow from it.

So what about the bang? While Tommy's producing the cash Alkane's other major project is what it calls the "Dubbo Project". Located in Dubbo (NSW), this project is what they called a poly-metallic with a whole bunch of rare metals/commodities including Rare Earths (RE). Rare Earths stocks seem to be hotting up at the moment with share prices heading higher with juniors like Arafura Resources (ARU) and Northern Minerals (NTU). ALK has done a lot of the hard work on this project such as proving up the resource, demonstrating the extraction via a PILOT plant and says currently trying to negotiate off-take partnerships.


----------



## aus_trader

I bought a parcel of Crowd Mobile Ltd (CM8) on Friday and just didn't get time to update the portfolio as I had a pretty full on weekend. Will try and do a quick update on that during the week...


----------



## Skate

aus_trader said:


> I bought a parcel of Crowd Mobile Ltd (CM8) on Friday and just didn't get time to update the portfolio as I had a pretty full on weekend. Will try and do a quick update on that during the week...




Hi aus_trader

*Quick question: *Is commission drag a consideration when compiling your portfolio?

Skate.


----------



## aus_trader

Skate said:


> Hi aus_trader
> 
> *Quick question: *Is commission drag a consideration when compiling your portfolio?
> 
> Skate.



Yes Commission does play a part especially when the parcels are close to the min qty. However it has come down considerably since the days when the best you could find was like $30 each for buy and sell. Nowadays it's more like a third of that with the added frequent trader discounts etc.


----------



## aus_trader

Got a bit of time to update the portfolio with Last Friday's stock. The stock is Crowd Mobile Ltd (CM8) and it's a tech firm that has products/services for the younger tech savvy generation and has growing revenues. It has been steadily reducing it's debt as well so in my opinion in a good position to prosper and grow...

Also I applied/paid for the BRU entitlement so will update the table once the shares are allocated...


----------



## aus_trader

Sold LNG today. Although it's a loss, it's been a good lesson. I bought LNG based on the big news that came out with the funding for it's Magnolia project. But after the initial excitement with gap up in price surge, LNG has been slowly falling away. As I am looking at limiting my losses a little more aggressively, perhaps I held on to LNG a bit too long. Oh well, better late than never...

Going forward, I will monitor and wait to see what happens after a major news releases like these, rather than jumping into the initial excitement...

Closed Positions:


----------



## tech/a

Buy the rumour 
Sell the fact.

If stock belt ahead and stall
Without developing a continuation pattern
Chances are it's over.
This is an advantage of understanding what a chart looks like
If
It's remaining bullish
Turning up or down
Remaining bearish
Consolidating to continue---- accumulating 
Consolidating to reverse ---- distributing

The chart answers a lot of questions every day.


----------



## aus_trader

tech/a said:


> Buy the rumour
> Sell the fact.
> 
> If stock belt ahead and stall
> Without developing a continuation pattern
> Chances are it's over.
> This is an advantage of understanding what a chart looks like
> If
> It's remaining bullish
> Turning up or down
> Remaining bearish
> Consolidating to continue---- accumulating
> Consolidating to reverse ---- distributing
> 
> The chart answers a lot of questions every day.



Good Points Tech/a, I'll be looking at the charts to get some confirmation before immediately jumping into any news releases going forward...


----------



## aus_trader

Bought a stock in the Financial/Technology space for this portfolio. The stock is zipMoney Ltd (ZML) and I've been watching it for a few weeks since it gapped up on huge volume on 7th of August. Turns out that it was due to a big news announcement where one of the big four banks, Westpac has bought a stake in the company. So rather than jumping in to buy the stock I've been watching it to see how it reacts after the initial price surge.

zipMoney operates in the online retail lending space and this area is expected to grow as it offers convenience for online purchases with credit. With the investment in zipMoney, it looks like Westpac also thinks the company has good fortunes going forward...


----------



## misinformd

NUH seems to have turned a corner after BT antenna issue.


----------



## aus_trader

misinformd said:


> NUH seems to have turned a corner after BT antenna issue.



Looks like a tech stock with potential... I will check it out and monitor. Thanks for the tip.


----------



## aus_trader

Bought a stock to get more exposure into Rare Earths (RE) story that's taking place. But first a couple of updates on the existing stocks in the portfolio...

I noticed the BRU entitlement shares have been allocated since my holding has increased in my account. Not sure exactly which date they appeared in my account so I will put today's date as purchase date.

Also with the last stock that was added to the portfolio (ZML), I was tempted to jump on the news which alerted me to that stock. Banks (especially the majors) have a whole team or a department of investment managers who make the decisions as to where to invest money, so they wouldn't throw money away generally. So the news is quite significant in my opinion. See the cutout section from their company presentation below:




But by not jumping in I did get to buy them at a lower price rather than paying above 80c on the day the big news was released.

Neometals Ltd (NMT) which is mainly a Lithium play is making progress with it's Titanium extraction which is creating some excitement.

As I mentioned when buying ALK, Rare Earth stocks seems to be on the move. The two I mentioned were ARU and NTU. Since ALK is Gold/RE play, I wanted to get more of a pure play RE stock on the portfolio. So I looked at the information on each of them.

From what I could find NTU has that little X-factor that could make it a stand out amongst the RE plays on the ASX and there are quite a few juniors that are not mentioned here. The reason is Northern Mineral's Browns Range deposit has a good % of Dysprosium and larger proportion of heavier RE's which tend to be more valuable. I also read in a recent news headline about NTU is to become a significant Dysprosium producer outside China. So I bought a parcel of Northern Minerals Ltd (NTU) shares for speculating on RE's.


----------



## aus_trader

CLQ seems to be finding a lot of resistance around it's old high around that $1.15 levels. It may break above it and go higher but I thought to take partial profits at current levels as it is retracing. So sold half the position this morning.

Closed Positions:


----------



## aus_trader

Probably should've sold a little earlier to reduce losses but prices fell through quickly and I was chasing it down to get a better price the last few days for UTR. Anyway finally got out and I will watch this stock going forward as it may make further progress with it's technology and I may have another go at it...

Closed Positions:


----------



## Adrian.

Hi Aus_Tradrer,

Great thread and gives me some companies to look at. I'm not a trader or chartist though...

You may be interested in CIO, CR8 or KNM.

CIO - Lots of purchase orders being announced for it M2M routers, is in a trading halt as a capital raising is being negotiated.

CR8 - A fair few large companies are in paid trials of their AI chatbot software for selling insurance. Just completed a cap raising.

KNM - Already had a very good run but is kicking goals in NY public school system with their educational software for special needs students. Hopefully they can expand to other public school systems.


----------



## aus_trader

Adrian. said:


> Hi Aus_Tradrer,
> 
> Great thread and gives me some companies to look at. I'm not a trader or chartist though...
> 
> You may be interested in CIO, CR8 or KNM.
> 
> CIO - Lots of purchase orders being announced for it M2M routers, is in a trading halt as a capital raising is being negotiated.
> 
> CR8 - A fair few large companies are in paid trials of their AI chatbot software for selling insurance. Just completed a cap raising.
> 
> KNM - Already had a very good run but is kicking goals in NY public school system with their educational software for special needs students. Hopefully they can expand to other public school systems.



Thanks for the tips. I will take a further look at these companies...


----------



## aus_trader

The recently added stocks ZipMoney Ltd (ZML) and Alkane Resources Ltd (ALK) was sold today to limit losses.

Closed Positions:


----------



## aus_trader

I only purchase a stock based on a tip if it really ticks the boxes and has a good story to it these days. Few days ago* Adrian. *has posted tips on 3 companies and I had the time to look at each briefly. CIO was in a Trading Holt at the time due to a capital raise as mentioned by him, but the story of the company interested me. Here is a few notes I made about CIO:

Wireless technology innovator operating in the IOT(Internet-Of-Things) space, specialises in M2M (Machine-2-Machine) connectivity
Expanding relationships with Network providers including big American firms such as Verizon and AT&T
Good sales growth
Current uses include vending machines, backup systems for critical missions such as Paramedic, airport security camera systems etc. Winning new contracts so could expand into other devices/areas as technology innovation continue
The $3m over-subscribed capital raising just completed gives them cash to operate and spend into R&D/sales for the medium term
So Connected IO Ltd (CIO) was bought in this speculative space.

Things has not been easy in this portfolio and I guess I didn't expect a walk in the park when I started this speculative portfolio either. However now that I have racked up a good number of losses in the closed positions of this portfolio, I am determined to pour more time and effort into doing better research into companies I buy as well as managing the positions.


----------



## tech/a

Company analysis in a speculative portfolio will be of zero benefit particularly if your not holding for months or years.
Analysis of momentum---when it starts,looks like continuing, and stalling or stopping
Will!


----------



## aus_trader

tech/a said:


> Company analysis in a speculative portfolio will be of zero benefit particularly if your not holding for months or years.
> Analysis of momentum---when it starts,looks like continuing, and stalling or stopping
> Will!



Not sure how to measure/quantify it but I thought there was a bit of price momentum with some of the stocks bought such as ALK, UTR with good volumes being traded at the time of buying. It (momentum) hasn't continued though... Just my thoughts.


----------



## Adrian.

aus_trader said:


> So Connected IO Ltd (CIO) was bought in this speculative space.
> 
> Things has not been easy in this portfolio and I guess I didn't expect a walk in the park when I started this speculative portfolio either. However now that I have racked up a good number of losses in the closed positions of this portfolio, I am determined to pour more time and effort into doing better research into companies I buy as well as managing the positions.




Glad you got something out of the tips 

Maybe part of your initial research should be identifying a catalyst and giving a timeframe for the catalyst to be achieved as well as putting a stop loss in place.

e.g CIO has been significantly growing revenue so you could give them 12 months to reach a cash flow positive state with a 20% stop loss. They have been burning about $1 mil a quarter but received purchase orders for approx. $2 mil in the Sep quarter (not sure which quarter the revenue will come into though.) This gives them time to ramp up production/marketing/sales and grow their revenue to cover the extra costs.

I agree with tech/a that with speccy stocks you need to give them time and also be ready for 10% falls in the price. It's risky but that is what a spec investment is meant to be.

Good luck!


----------



## aus_trader

Adrian. said:


> Glad you got something out of the tips
> 
> Maybe part of your initial research should be identifying a catalyst and giving a timeframe for the catalyst to be achieved as well as putting a stop loss in place.
> 
> e.g CIO has been significantly growing revenue so you could give them 12 months to reach a cash flow positive state with a 20% stop loss. They have been burning about $1 mil a quarter but received purchase orders for approx. $2 mil in the Sep quarter (not sure which quarter the revenue will come into though.) This gives them time to ramp up production/marketing/sales and grow their revenue to cover the extra costs.
> 
> I agree with tech/a that with speccy stocks you need to give them time and also be ready for 10% falls in the price. It's risky but that is what a spec investment is meant to be.
> 
> Good luck!



Yes, the company fundamentals that I have mentioned is the catalyst for buying. I also think having the capital raised gives them time to ramp up growth as you've said. Let's see how it progresses...


----------



## aus_trader

Does anyone know an easy way to ride the digital currency or Crypto craze? When I say easy I mean rather than buying individual digital currencies, can you buy an ETF or LIC that are heavily invested in Cryptos?

I've been looking into this area and reading other forums on it and on the ASX I found 1 stock that is involved with digital currencies. So bought some Digitalx Ltd (*DCC*) to add to this bunch of speculative stocks.


----------



## aus_trader

Two stocks bought today, one heavily beaten down stock of this year and one mining stock.

First stock is Freelancer Ltd (*FLN*) which has gone down most of the year and from what I have looked into it's been feared that the other online players that are emerging will erode Freelancer's market share. I think the sell down due to this fear is over done and it is due for some recovery. FLN is still the largest in it's space as the latest company info states:

""
Wednesday, 18 October 2017 - Freelancer Limited (ASX: FLN), the world’s largest freelancing
and crowdsourcing marketplace by total number of users and total number of jobs posted...
""

2nd stock is Metals X Limited (*MLX*). I've been following the progress of this stock more than a decade and it has been managed well in my opinion over the years. In recent years it has spun off it's gold assets into a separate company called Westgold Resources Ltd (WGX). It mines Tin which brings in the cash and that operation has been going on since I've first came across this stock ages ago. It also had a massive Nickel/Cobalt deposit named Wingellina, that was evaluated for mining but was put on hold due to lack-luster economics due to Ni/Co prices at the time.

The reason for buying is due to the latest announcement that MLX is re commencing studies at it's Wingellina Ni/Co deposit due to improved prices in the current market. If economics add up for this round of studies it could re-rate the company because this is a big deposit, as the company states:

""
Wingellina, also known as the Central Musgrave Project (CMP), remains as one of the largest undeveloped nickel-cobalt deposits in the world.
""


----------



## aus_trader

Sold Crowd Mobile Ltd (CM8) in the morning...

Closed Positions:


----------



## aus_trader

Bought Oil/Gas explorer with more cash in it's books than what the company is worth. Yes it has $352m cash with a market cap of only $319m at current price.

Company is Karoon Gas Australia Limited (KAR).


----------



## aus_trader

Sold the remainder of Clean TeQ Holdings Limited (*CLQ*) this morning. It went lower and closed the recent gap and buying was looking weak below it in market depth, so I got out. It may continue higher, so I'll keep watch to see if it's worth another go.

Also news on Connected IO Ltd (*CIO*) that LG has become a customer buying some of their products.

Closed Positions:


----------



## aus_trader

As the share price has run up considerably in a short period, took partial profits on Digitalx Ltd (DCC).

Closed Positions:


----------



## tech/a

DCC
Hope you fair better than I did with BIG


----------



## aus_trader

tech/a said:


> DCC
> Hope you fair better than I did with BIG



Got a bit lucky on this one tech/a, because I never expected it to rise like it did at the time of buying.


----------



## aus_trader

Although I don't have the chance to watch the market during much of the day, had to keep a lookout for NMT around 50c since there was resistance from old high. So when it started re-tracing from testing this level I decided to take some profits on Neometals Ltd (NMT).

Closed Positions:


----------



## tech/a

aus_trader said:


> Got a bit lucky on this one tech/a, because I never expected it to rise like it did at the time of buying.




I don’t think we ever do.
Trade enough of these and its suprising 
How lucky you get!


----------



## aus_trader

Bought Clean Seas Seafood Ltd (*CSS*) after researching it. Just raised funds and company is expecting to get to cash flow positive, so probably won't need to keep raising any time soon. It reminds me of the early days of the TASmanian SALmon producer Tassal Group Limited (*TGR*). There were issues TGR had to deal with in it's early days of salmon farming, but once sorted the stock did well to get to where it is today.


----------



## aus_trader

With Resource and Mining stocks retracing especially in the speculative end of town, I decided to sell two of my speculative mining stocks today. Both Northern Minerals Ltd (*NTU*) and Metals X Limited (*MLX*) have left the portfolio but I will monitor them as there may be another opportunity to buy them if the resource stocks show some recovery.

Closed Positions:


----------



## aus_trader

Sold Connected IO Ltd (*CIO*) yesterday.

Closed Positions:


----------



## aus_trader

Sold the remainder of Neometals Ltd (*NMT*).

Closed Positions:


----------



## aus_trader

Bought infant food and milk formula maker Bubs Australia Ltd (*BUB*) which is also a stock popular with traders, so hoping it will go up...


----------



## aus_trader

Sold Freelancer Ltd (FLN). The price recovery doesn't seem to be taking place, so will keep that cash for better opportunities. Wish everyone a Happy New Year !



Closed:


----------



## Caveman 28

Here is my current portfolio:

Does not include sales made over the past 6 months.  Let me know if you want to see the sales.


----------



## aus_trader

Caveman 28 said:


> Here is my current portfolio:
> 
> Does not include sales made over the past 6 months.  Let me know if you want to see the sales.
> 
> 
> View attachment 85399



Your open portfolio looks pretty good, it'll be a lot better with the big price jump with Cann Group Ltd (*CAN*) today . I would like to see the sold stocks too if you can post.


----------



## aus_trader

Couple of stocks added to start off the year.

First is an Australian Icon that has fallen out of favour somewhat. It has gone through some business re-structuring and I think rather than being down and out, it could recover from here. Company is the maker of well known Hills clothesline amongst other things, Hills Ltd (*HIL*).

Having made a profit last year, I've decided to buy back Lithium/Titanium stock Neometals Ltd (*NMT*) also.


----------



## Caveman 28

aus_trader said:


> Your open portfolio looks pretty good, it'll be a lot better with the big price jump with Cann Group Ltd (*CAN*) today . I would like to see the sold stocks too if you can post.







Win Some loose some but in front!
not sure why the chart is in twice.

I have just started using conditional buys and sells in Comsec and updating my trigger price as stocks reach new highs.

Sold AU8 today using a Falling Sell through Comsec.  Made a loss but better than a huge loss.


----------



## aus_trader

Caveman 28 said:


> View attachment 85491
> 
> Win Some loose some but in front!
> not sure why the chart is in twice.
> 
> I have just started using conditional buys and sells in Comsec and updating my trigger price as stocks reach new highs.




I think you have done well by keeping the losses relatively small. The few big winners has made all the difference and kept you in front. Well done and keep up the good work !


----------



## Caveman 28




----------



## Caveman 28

aus_trader said:


> I think you have done well by keeping the losses relatively small. The few big winners has made all the difference and kept you in front. Well done and keep up the good work !




Thanks.  Now that I use conditional sells I can relax and not be in front of the screen all day.  And also not fall in love with any stocks. AU8 is a good example.

My holdings atm are up 24% and I plan to limit my losses.

Have fun trading!


----------



## aus_trader

Caveman 28 said:


> Thanks.  Now that I use conditional sells I can relax and not be in front of the screen all day.  And also not fall in love with any stocks. AU8 is a good example.
> 
> My holdings atm are up 24% and I plan to limit my losses.
> 
> Have fun trading!



I agree. If you can spend less time monitoring price movements constantly that is a good thing. If you use them wisely, it may serve you well... I've used conditional orders in the past and only drawback is if a stock reverses after having an intra-day sell off, it can take you out of a position. So I use them rarely these days although I only check prices only once or twice a day.


----------



## Caveman 28

My BUB just triggered.


----------



## Caveman 28

I sold my BUB today as it fell 10% from its very recent high of 83c.  Sold at 73c and broke evenish.

ORE and CAN were my top stocks today and I ended up with a small paper profit today as well.


----------



## aus_trader

Caveman 28 said:


> I sold my BUB today as it fell 10% from its very recent high of 83c.  Sold at 73c and broke evenish.
> 
> ORE and CAN were my top stocks today and I ended up with a small paper profit today as well.




I'm giving BUB a little more time and space to see if it can break back above the current trading range...

So, Caveman 28 what is your method for buying stocks? i.e. fundamental research/valuations or technical/chart setups ?


----------



## Caveman 28

aus_trader said:


> I'm giving BUB a little more time and space to see if it can break back above the current trading range...
> 
> So, Caveman 28 what is your method for buying stocks? i.e. fundamental research/valuations or technical/chart setups?




_How do I pick my stocks?
Well, to be honest, I use gut feeling.  I read most of the articles from Motley Fool (https://www.fool.com.au/recent-headlines/) and the news and then go with the flow.

I do look at the past 5 days trading charts as well as the past month trading chart and get a gut feeling from them.  I look at the company profile and visit their website.

I read the last few announcements and again use gut feeling about them.  I don't analyze charts and usually only go back 30 days to get a trend.

aus_trader,  I hope that helps you understand how I buy stocks and in the past 4 months I have been able to turn 20K into almost 30K.

GO THE GUT!_


----------



## Caveman 28

BIG and CAN SELL triggers were executed yesterday and I ended up making 33% on CAN and 2 % on BIG.  My gut tells me BIG will do better so I only sold half.

A buy trigger was executed on HLX at .04c yesterday as well.

Today my gut told me to buy GXY and did so at $4.40 even aver selling last week at $3.40.

Kind regards,
_GO THE GUT!_


----------



## Caveman 28

Bad day yesterday with GXY after buying at 4.40 it dropped to 3.98 so I bought more at 3.99 to average at about 4.20.  ATM they are 4.25 so I guess this was a good gut gamble ???


----------



## Caveman 28

ORE triggered at 7.01  from my buy at 5.94.   Go to stick to some rules!


----------



## aus_trader

Caveman 28 said:


> _How do I pick my stocks?
> Well, to be honest, I use gut feeling.  I read most of the articles from Motley Fool (https://www.fool.com.au/recent-headlines/) and the news and then go with the flow.
> 
> I do look at the past 5 days trading charts as well as the past month trading chart and get a gut feeling from them.  I look at the company profile and visit their website.
> 
> I read the last few announcements and again use gut feeling about them.  I don't analyze charts and usually only go back 30 days to get a trend.
> 
> aus_trader,  I hope that helps you understand how I buy stocks and in the past 4 months I have been able to turn 20K into almost 30K.
> 
> GO THE GUT!_



Despite the funny name, fool articles are pretty informative. Good to know you do some fundamental/company analysis as well.


----------



## Caveman 28

aus_trader said:


> Despite the funny name, fool articles are pretty informative. Good to know you do some fundamental/company analysis as well.



what "funny name"?  LOL


----------



## aus_trader

Due to price opening with a gap down, sold remaining shares of Digitalx Ltd (*DCC*).

Closed Positions:


----------



## Caveman 28

aus_trader said:


> Due to price opening with a gap down, sold remaining shares of Digitalx Ltd (*DCC*).
> 
> Closed Positions:
> View attachment 85751




Do you have a current open position?


----------



## Caveman 28

Closed KDR at $2.02  
and GXY at $4.01 
HLX at $.038  

Thinning down before I go on holidays for a couple of weeks


----------



## aus_trader

Caveman 28 said:


> Do you have a current open position?



No not on DCC, I sold out in two parts as per table.


----------



## aus_trader

Caveman 28 said:


> Closed KDR at $2.02
> and GXY at $4.01
> HLX at $.038
> 
> Thinning down before I go on holidays for a couple of weeks



Good outcome on KDR. I've also considered it a couple of times in the past but just couldn't commit to buying it.


----------



## Caveman 28

aus_trader said:


> No not on DCC, I sold out in two parts as per table.




I mean are you holding any stocks?


----------



## aus_trader

Caveman 28 said:


> I mean are you holding any stocks?



Yes, My current speculative portfolio is below. Added another position today as I see some gains in the oil/gas sector.

Stock added today is Blue Energy Limited (BUL), which is a gas stock and I've seen stock news reports mentioning that BUL can play a part in supplying Australia's East Coast gas shortage.

Open Portfolio:


----------



## aus_trader

Sold Clean Seas Seafood Ltd(CSS).

Closed Positions:


----------



## aus_trader

Had to bite the bullet and sell most of my open positions. Sold 1/2 of *BRU* to lock in profits. Will re-evaluate once this volatility settles down.

Closed Positions:


----------



## peter2

@aus_trader  Good work on the sell. I know it's tough to do but you knew it had to be done. Most of your edge in this type of trading is due to the money management.


----------



## aus_trader

peter2 said:


> @aus_trader  Good work on the sell. I know it's tough to do but you knew it had to be done. Most of your edge in this type of trading is due to the money management.



Thank you Peter, yes just have to bite the bullet in this type of volatile market conditions. Also sold *BRU* so there is very little exposure to the market in my portfolio now.

Closed Positions:


----------



## aus_trader

The last remaining stock was sold today, so gone into cash for the time being...

Last stock was Hills Ltd (*HIL*) which initially went up after buying, but has slowly come down while trying to hold ground like a good old hills hoist clothesline amongst all the market headwinds.

Closed Positions:


----------



## willoneau

I just read your thread and am interested what the aim of it is? 
Is it to log your trading like a journal ?
or seek some guidance
or even just get stock tips ?


----------



## aus_trader

willoneau said:


> I just read your thread and am interested what the aim of it is?
> Is it to log your trading like a journal ?
> or seek some guidance
> or even just get stock tips ?



Hi willoneau,
Been busy with other things and work. Yes keeping a journo mainly. Also improve by learning from others to get better performance.


----------



## aus_trader

Not sure if it's safe to go back into the water but the volatility in the market seems to have settled down a bit.

When I was looking at businesses with farm/agriculture/fresh produce exposure, I came across Dongfang Modern Agriculture Hldg Gp Ltd (*DFM*), but didn't consider it as it was a business in China. Well I changed my mind when it announced it was buying into an Aussie health supplements business on Monday:




So I've purchased some shares in it.

Open Portfolio:


----------



## aus_trader

Energy prices (Oil/Gas) have been rising and I can feel it at the fuel station when I go to fill up the car. So have been looking into a few stocks in the oil/gas sector...

Researched a few and although they stack up well, prices have run up hard recently. So I went back to a stock that was in this portfolio a little while ago that got knocked out (i.e. I sold it) due to the market volatility earlier in the year. It's a gas stock that I'm able to buy at a lower price and has the same story to go with it i.e. to supply gas to the predicted East coast gas shortage in the coming years. So I went ahead and placed an order to buy Blue Energy Limited (*BUL*), which got filled at the last hour before market closed.

Open Portfolio:


----------



## Caveman 28

I bought some BUL today and yesterday as well @ .125..  Good Luck


----------



## aus_trader

Caveman 28 said:


> I bought some BUL today and yesterday as well @ .125..  Good Luck



Thanks mate, energy related stocks are doing OK at the moment, so let's see how *BUL* goes... Some even getting taken over like Santos Ltd (*STO*).

Also added another stock to this portfolio. It's in the renewable energy space, more specifically into wind farms. Yes it's in one of those sectors which hardly anyone wants to touch with all the negative press about renewable projects being unprofitable etc. But I think this one is different because it actually made a profit (see financial snapshot below) and I think it's business model is also interesting. Company is Windlab Ltd (*WND*) and it gets involved in wind energy projects from the start with Joint Ventures and partnerships and once developed holds a percentage of the project as a part owner and in some cases it is the operator of the wind farm.




Open Portfolio:


----------



## aus_trader

Shine Corporate Ltd (SHJ) bought today and is back in the portfolio. It was removed from and earlier buy due to a possible class action that was taken. Long time has passed and nothing negative has happened and any effect/payout may be minimal and Shine will fight to defend itself I think.

Also SHJ is going along nicely with it's integration of acquisitions which are contributing to the bottom line. Profits and dividends have increased according to it's last report as well.

Added a garbage stock to the longer term portfolio also to fit in with Australia's waste and recycling crisis, will update that portfolio later today...

Open:


----------



## aus_trader

Bubs Australia Ltd (*BUB*) is having a good news flow of distribution deals with China, so it was bought back into the portfolio.


----------



## aus_trader

Capitol Health Ltd (*CAJ*) is showing signs of price potentially breaking out higher. So I decided to buy it back after selling it (in the longer term portfolio) during the long drawn sideways consolidation phase. It has delivered on it's promise to pay a dividend and that may continue if profits are consistent or growing...




Also decided to sell Dongfang Modern Agriculture Hldg Gp Ltd (*DFM*) as it is struggling to head higher. I will monitor it to see if there is price strength since this story may have further to go...


----------



## aus_trader

Oil price is slightly up from the sustained downtrend from $70's to mid $60's. Stocks like Woodside Petroleum Limited (*WPL*) and one of my previous stocks that was in this portfolio Beach Energy Ltd (*BPT*) is up. However Blue Energy Limited (*BUL*) is down 9%. Not sure why this stock is going in the opposite direction and if I have a stomach to see any further declines... Thought about selling but will check tomorrow...


----------



## aus_trader

With Oil price slide continuing, I got out of Blue Energy Limited(*BUL*) this morning.





Bought a stock that I had in this portfolio previously. It has changed it's name and code but still the same story. Use to be ZipMoney Ltd(ZML), now changed to Zip Co Ltd(*Z1P*). Some good partnerships with Aussie retailers such as Super Retail Grp and Officeworks announced recently...




Also I have seen Zip payment services offered right alongside one of it's bigger rivals Afterpay Touch Group Ltd(*APT*) for online merchants, as below:


----------



## aus_trader

After 2 years of flat share price movement, one of Australia's favourite home-builder's Simonds Group Ltd (*SIO*) seems to be coming back to life. There seems to be a few things going for it:

- Went back to profitability from a -ve profit the previous year
- New CEO seems to be driving growth
- Reduced debt on it's books

Open Portfolio:


----------



## boydie

aus_trader said:


> After 2 years of flat share price movement, one of Australia's favourite home-builder's Simonds Group Ltd (*SIO*) seems to be coming back to life. There seems to be a few things going for it:
> 
> - Went back to profitability from a -ve profit the previous year
> - New CEO seems to be driving growth
> - Reduced debt on it's books
> 
> Open Portfolio:
> View attachment 87873




Hello, fairly new to this forum so excuse the question if already been asked previously, but judging by your spreadsheet snapshots you are buying relatively small parcels in $ amounts, doesn't this cause brokerage to have a huge cost effect for you % wise?

Cheers


----------



## aus_trader

First of all Welcome boydie

Yes it does. It's a speculative portfolio, so not going to put big positions on these at the moment, maybe once I have big funds available I will increase position size in this portfolio.

I do have slightly bigger position sizing in my medium/longer term portfolio.


----------



## aus_trader

Unfortunately Shine Corporate Ltd (*SHJ*) leaves the portfolio. I got spooked by the spike down on Thursday's price action, so sold on Friday.


----------



## aus_trader

Bubs Australia Ltd (*BUB*) was sold and I've added a dividend/distribution paying fund to my Medium/Longer Term Stock Portfolio, details in that thread...


----------



## aus_trader

Bought consumer products company McPherson's Ltd (*MCP*) which sells products to supermarkets, department stores and pharmacies. Their aim is to grow the business in the key areas of health, beauty and wellness. Well established in Australian marketplace with recurring revenues and pays a dividend close to 5% at current prices.

The X factor that could drive further growth is expansion into China, which is well underway with increasing sales. MCP is also targeting new export markets in growth regions: North Asia, Malaysia and India.


----------



## aus_trader

With some of the cryptocurrencies such as bitcoin showing a bit of recovery in prices, I thought to do a trade with asx listed stock that's right in the thick of cryptocurrency space, Digital X Ltd (*DCC*). I've had a bit of luck with it in the past, but if it continues to drop like a stone I plan to get out of the trade...

New stock entry:


----------



## aus_trader

Zip Co Ltd (*Z1P*) was sold today in this portfolio.


----------



## aus_trader

I guess you never stop learning from the markets. I wrote that I was going against the trend when buying renewable energy stock Windlab Ltd (*WND*) since the sector was pretty hated but I thought this one was a bit different. Just got out of it after being kicked in the gut (stock tanking), was trying to sell it last few days but due to large bid/ask spread I wasn't filled till today. Also I observed clear robot activity where there was an order that was getting in front of my order within milliseconds. Since there was around a 10c gap I moved my order a good 7c up and down and each time there was that robotic order that was jumping in front of me. It couldn't be human because if I amended my order to be in front, the robot order was still displayed as first to be filled as soon as I hit refresh. No human could have a reaction time that fast!

Learnt my lesson trying to be a contrarian and outsmart the markets.


----------



## aus_trader

Having another crack at Clean Seas Seafood Ltd (*CSS*). On it's way to make it's maiden profit after a lot of investment into farming the priced kingfish it sells.

I also noticed another stock in this space seems to be blasting into space lately, namely Murray Cod Australia Ltd (*MCA*) which is still in the earlier stages of development from what I can gather. Anyone know any info on MCA rise?

Open Portfolio:


----------



## aus_trader

Bought mining services company Maca Ltd (*MLD*). Results reported today and maintains a dividend close to 7%. Price had gone up quite a bit when I bought shares due to results reporting today.

Open Portfolio:


----------



## aus_trader

After holding for nearly 3 months, sold Capitol Health Ltd (*CAJ*) for a loss. There is a dividend coming up on 26th of September, I'm not comfortable losing any more capital on this one. Not easy finding winners these days...

Closed Positions:


----------



## peter2

Sold my CAJ recently also. They're either not working efficiently or can't convince the investing community that they are.

If it was easy then everyone would do it and that would make it hard again. The losers try something else (hoard gold) and that makes it easy for the few who stick to it.

Looking through your results I see that you're having a difficult 2018. We both know that there have been lots of great trending stocks this year. Have you wondered why you haven't had many in this portfolio? (Or were they all in the BIG portfolio).


----------



## luutzu

aus_trader said:


> After holding for nearly 3 months, sold Capitol Health Ltd (*CAJ*) for a loss. There is a dividend coming up on 26th of September, I'm not comfortable losing any more capital on this one. Not easy finding winners these days...
> 
> Closed Positions:
> View attachment 89067




For what it's worth, I think it's very tough investing in small/micro companies.

The only chance of making serious money, or any money, out of them is if you've done serious research into each of them. 

By research, I mean talking to the manager, the contractors, consultants, the technician, the lady in the office. Really, really know what they're about.

From having that kind of detailed understanding, I think an investor could then make informed decision. And more likely to make a fortune or two with getting in on the ground floor and what not.

To get in from financial statements, managerial presentation or projections... armchair warrior stuff... It's going to be pretty tough for a couple of reasons.

One, the business might very well be legitimate. But business is tough, very difficult to get the funding and the product/services right, the marketing etc. Then there's the big boys who can pretty much crush you before you could walk. 

So when there's sizzles, the market will tend to boost the stock skyhigh. The moment there's a bad rumour or a set back, it's a race for the exit.

Pretty tough to know when to go against the crowd so you'd just go with them to be save. Can't make money doing that, i don't think.

Second, I think established companies.. or at least ones that's profitable, pure play etc., They could do very, very well too if you can pick them right, or lucky enough to find them.

Just my thoughts.


----------



## peter2

I agree that it's hard trading/investing in small/micro caps and it's much harder with a small capital base. Aus_trader's task is much harder because it's a small portfolio and can only hold a few positions at once. It's hard to get lucky with only six picks. This can be offset by increasing the number of stocks in the portfolio and being able to hold through periods of falling prices. This requires a larger capital base. A fully funded investor may hold 20 - 30 small/micro caps to improve the odds of holding a few large winners.

Buying stocks after good reports means paying higher prices skewing the RR profile unfavourably, especially if a small account can't take the heat after a sell-off. 

Of course I'd like to point out that it's possible to make serious money without talking to the manager, contractors, employees or even the tea lady (sorry, tea trolley attendant). The insto's competing to invest their capital in promising companies leave "footprints" and make patterns in the price charts. Insto's can only make money if the stock price goes up. Any "armchair warrior" with a drink at hand can buy into stocks with rising prices and "make out like a bandit".


----------



## aus_trader

peter2 said:


> Sold my CAJ recently also. They're either not working efficiently or can't convince the investing community that they are.
> 
> If it was easy then everyone would do it and that would make it hard again. The losers try something else (hoard gold) and that makes it easy for the few who stick to it.
> 
> Looking through your results I see that you're having a difficult 2018. We both know that there have been lots of great trending stocks this year. Have you wondered why you haven't had many in this portfolio? (Or were they all in the BIG portfolio).



It's been tough going this year in the speculative space, you are right. But my aim is to be consistent and also keep capital preservation in mind when investing. I know there has been a few good stocks (such as RHP, ASX, APT) to have been in but I would have had to cast a wider net i.e. buy many more stocks to find a few winning stocks to hold on to. Would have had to cut out many losers too along the way though since winners are very rare.

I sold CAJ since share price has dropped and I prefer to be out in case the drop continues. It's easy to change strategy and hold to see if price recovers or till dividend date etc but then I'll not be consistent.

The longer term portfolio is doing OK without any runaway stocks/ETF's in it so far. This is good as I can let it be and collect the odd dividend without tempting to sell a runaway winner.


----------



## aus_trader

luutzu said:


> For what it's worth, I think it's very tough investing in small/micro companies.
> 
> The only chance of making serious money, or any money, out of them is if you've done serious research into each of them.
> 
> By research, I mean talking to the manager, the contractors, consultants, the technician, the lady in the office. Really, really know what they're about.
> 
> From having that kind of detailed understanding, I think an investor could then make informed decision. And more likely to make a fortune or two with getting in on the ground floor and what not.
> 
> To get in from financial statements, managerial presentation or projections... armchair warrior stuff... It's going to be pretty tough for a couple of reasons.
> 
> One, the business might very well be legitimate. But business is tough, very difficult to get the funding and the product/services right, the marketing etc. Then there's the big boys who can pretty much crush you before you could walk.
> 
> So when there's sizzles, the market will tend to boost the stock skyhigh. The moment there's a bad rumour or a set back, it's a race for the exit.
> 
> Pretty tough to know when to go against the crowd so you'd just go with them to be save. Can't make money doing that, i don't think.
> 
> Second, I think established companies.. or at least ones that's profitable, pure play etc., They could do very, very well too if you can pick them right, or lucky enough to find them.
> 
> Just my thoughts.



Bruce Lee is one of my all time favourites by the way...

Lot of good points and agree with most of them. Especially about big boys can kick you out before stock taking off etc. If there was a way to invest alongside them...  Its happened to me a couple of time such as with NEA which I got out of too early but look at it now.

In terms of holding on and adding to position every time when price crashes, yes you need to know the business inside out probably at top management level. I think below that level people don't know the real information but they generally like to talk highly of their company. I know workers who thought everything was going so well that when they went for the redundancy meeting with the boss who explained the company was going out of business they thought they were called in for a promotion 

So my take is unfortunately we have to go with what's announced with the public companies since we don't have such insider knowledge.


----------



## aus_trader

Couple of stocks added to the portfolio today. One is a well established dividend paying company and the other is a pure punt that can go either way.

With financial stocks pulling back a bit I thought to do a bit of searching around for anything offering good value in terms of dividend yield but didn't want to buy a major bank just yet either. Came across Bell Financial Group Ltd (*BFG*) and decided to have a bid as the price was coming down. Went as low as 91c but by the time I put my order in it was bid up again so got in at 95c. Still happy as it offers a dividend yield of 7.5% which higher than any of the major banks at this point in time. Business is involved with investments and financial advice under Bell Potter brand and stockbroking under Bell Direct brand.

The other is a penny punt on Yowie Group Ltd (*YOW*), which seems to be undergoing a turnaround strategy. Well at least trying according to the company information and they are calling it a "reset" (see below), after the share price falling so much. Previously only supplied to the US but just started selling in Australia through Woolies, Big W, K mart, Target, Reject shop etc.




Open Portfolio:


----------



## aus_trader

Just got filled on the Digitalx Ltd (*DCC*) sell order, so it's taken out of the portfolio.


----------



## aus_trader

Although overall trend for Gold looks to be down, it seems to be flattening out at this stage. peter2 also mentioned about gold a few minutes ago in his "P2: A batch of FX market trades" thread as shown below:
""
WTI: going up, against trend, this rally may provide a short setup.
Gold: going sideways, no momentum
Silver: going sideways, no momentum
Copper: going sideways, ready to move up?
""
It's good to get opinion from other experienced traders I think.

Anyway the reason for mentioning it here is I've been looking for potential gold stock trades if the gold price is not heading south or ideally if it's going up. These are intended to be speculative in nature so not going to put any gold stocks in the Medium/Longer Term Stock Portfolio as they could fall if the gold price continues it's downtrend.

I took a position in the gold stock Aurelia Metals Ltd (*AMI*) which has recently become a miner. The numbers are impressive since becoming a miner:


While the gold price is heading down it's probably a good time to make a list of gold stocks that have some quality assets/business like this one. If other members are aware of awesome gold stocks with quality mining/exploration assets that are hidden gems at the moment list them on this thread here. At least a one liner for your reasoning will be good since there are too many gold stocks with almost worthless assets. We can pick up the best of the best at beaten down prices once the gold price turns around. I'll buy the best few of them myself when the time looks right and display those stocks in this portfolio.

Open Portfolio:


----------



## peter2

It's worth noting that my opinions on the markets are relevant to the time frames I'm trading. The market comments you posted above are relevant for the next 4 hours, as I'm trading 4H trends. 

Soon after I posted those comments on gold/silver, the markets fell. The weekly and daily trend for gold/silver are down and it's going to take a lot of money and a complete change in sentiment to get them going up. 

Please be careful about placing significance on any market opinions. 

Like you, I've been reluctant to trade gold stocks while the price of gold falls. My reluctance is also due the fact that I've got a lousy record with them. 

In spite of my opinion and reluctance there are several gold producers showing excellent chart trends. AMI is OK, but ONX is better.


----------



## aus_trader

peter2 said:


> In spite of my opinion and reluctance there are several gold producers showing excellent chart trends. AMI is OK, but ONX is better.



Thanks Peter, I'll also look into ONX to keep in a watchlist. Since Re-listing after company name change, it has made great progress and just last month poured the first gold from Comet Vale JV project. Would be good to see the financials of their operation as they continue to report...

I understand your comments regarding the short term and the longer term trends. Like ONX, AMI is one that is going against the grain at the moment. That is, these gold stocks seem to be in an uptrend while gold is in a downtrend, so I'm having a bit of a play (speculation). But I'll wait for the long term trend to change in gold before buying into perhaps a handful of gold plays. So in the meantime this is a great time to analyse, share ideas and gather information of the best gold plays that are staying under the radar and becoming cheaper in most cases while we wait...


----------



## aus_trader

peter2 said:


> Like you, I've been reluctant to trade gold stocks while the price of gold falls. My reluctance is also due the fact that I've got a lousy record with them.



Me too. My record is bad as well in the past with most mining plays not just gold. I've mentioned about this in my earlier posts about getting buried alive in the GFC days. Hopefully it's made me a more nimble, humble person. So I haven't thrown the towel in but continue to learn and become better at investing / trading.


----------



## aus_trader

Got out of McPherson's Ltd (*MCP*) this morning. There is a 2.5c dividend coming up on the 1st of Oct but share price looks to be heading down so I am not going to hold till ex-dividend date.

Also thought about adding Brainchip Holdings Ltd (*BRN*) to this portfolio since it's in an advanced chipmaking process. Decided against it after seeing another chip maker 4DS Memory Ltd (*4DS*) lost around 40% due to some hiccup (process modification) in the chip manufacturing process.


----------



## peter2

Good disciplined exit on MCP. I'm sure there are better opportunities for your money.

edit: I had only just reviewed your portfolio minutes ago and was wondering if you were going to exit MCP. Why was I in your portfolio? Well I saw that AMI spiked higher today and looked to see your buy price.


----------



## aus_trader

peter2 said:


> Good disciplined exit on MCP. I'm sure there are better opportunities for your money.
> 
> edit: I had only just reviewed your portfolio minutes ago and was wondering if you were going to exit MCP. Why was I in your portfolio? Well I saw that AMI spiked higher today and looked to see your buy price.



I thought to give MCP just a little room in case it found support from the high a year ago around 1st of September 2017. Ran out of patience today as prices kept falling.

Slim pickings for the time being as I have also noticed more stocks seem to be moving down than up. So even when I come across stocks like BRN that I mentioned earlier I was hesitant to buy as it may immediately move down with the rest of them forcing my hand to sell.

Pete, it's a relief to see any stock pushing higher, go AMI go.


----------



## aus_trader

I'm having a bit of deja vu while doing a bit of research on a mining spec. Taking me right back to the time when the first Uranium boom took place in the early 2000's. Does anyone remember Paladin Energy Ltd (*PDN*) ? It went from just a few cents to around 8 bucks during the boom and was heralded as one of the best Uranium plays that went from a hopeful to a miner. Most people I've spoken to or exchanged messages with agree that although luck may have played a part, the success of Paladin was mostly due to the exceptional management led by John Borshoff. It's also notable that Sprott asset management took a strategic stake in Paladin while it was still trading for pennies and they did really well as the company transformed itself into a miner.

That was more than a decade ago and Uranium boom ended and prices have come down so much since then that it's not profitable to mine the stuff for most miners. Worldwide, miners have cut back production as it's not profitable to sell at current spot prices after all the mining costs are factored in, even Paladin has put it's Langer Heinrich mine on hold for the time being. This cut back is expected to reduce supply and predictions are for Uranium prices to start heading higher again.

So while waiting for Uranium prices to pick up, I've been looking at a few Uranium plays on the ASX. There is a bunch of plays with various projects but one caught my eye and that's when I had the deja vu (French I think) moment. I was going through the company material on Deep Yellow Limited (*DYL*) and this is what I came across:


As can be seen from above, does CEO and largest shareholder ring a bell? Well, I am happy to take a small stake and see what happens. Although the timing of the Uranium price cannot be predicted accurately, if there is a recovery I think *DYL* is a prime candidate to lead the charge amongst Uranium speculative plays.

Open Portfolio:


----------



## aus_trader

Another China speculative stock given a go in the portfolio, Food Revolution Group Ltd (*FOD*). It sells a variety of boutique beverages, drinks and oils etc, see below:



Another development is the Chinese distribution deal and strategic investment, as below:




Looks like a small cap stock (valued at only 56m at the moment) that has a good growth story. I also think it might be getting discovered by institutions and fund managers just recently (12 September) from announcements made to the ASX:




Also just aside from that, the currently held stock Maca Ltd (*MLD*) has sent me a dividend cheque. Details are updated in the table below:

Open Portfolio:


----------



## sptrawler

I've bought into Hazer(HZR) speculative but a new process, which produces battery quality graphite and Hydrogen.
Another one I have owned previously, and am thinking of buying again, is Imdex. They were into basic drilling and now appear to be moving into the more technical side, and evolving technologies. Very speculative, but if drilling efficiencies are improved, exploration costs are lowered.


----------



## aus_trader

sptrawler said:


> I've bought into Hazer(HZR) speculative but a new process, which produces battery quality graphite and Hydrogen.
> Another one I have owned previously, and am thinking of buying again, is Imdex. They were into basic drilling and now appear to be moving into the more technical side, and evolving technologies. Very speculative, but if drilling efficiencies are improved, exploration costs are lowered.



I quite liked the combined Graphite/Hydrogen production capability of Hazer Group Ltd (*HZR*). If pilot plant is successful then commercialisation could be a reality and having Mineral Resources Limited (MIN) as a JV partner and one of the main shareholders provides further backing for HZR progressing well.


----------



## aus_trader

New Uranium discovery for Deep Yellow Limited (*DYL*), as described below:



This should add a few additional ounces to it's resource inventory.


----------



## aus_trader

Couple of stocks added to the portfolio today.

Looked further into Hazer Group Ltd (*HZR*) and it looks good as a speculative play. It is in the process of commercialising Hazer process which is a low emission hydrogen and graphite production process. These highly technical processes can yield good gains if invested at the right time as it de-risks the new technology when moving from conceptual design stage to proven plant stage. Currently at the latter end of this path as HZR is building a pilot plant and if successful has plans on going bigger to a commercial plant, see progress flow since listing:




JV with Mineral Resources Limited (MIN) also provides further confidence in Hazer process and MIN has a large shareholding in HZR.

Latest independent testing of Hazer process is also encouraging:




At $32m current market cap, I think HZR can have a lot of upside if this goes commercial so I bought some shares. Another play that did well in this portfolio with similar proprietary technology process for metal extraction was Clean TeQ Holdings Limited (CLQ).

2nd stock is another China play, Aumake International Ltd (*AU8*). As the name suggests this actually makes Au products and sells online as well as via retail to customers. To summarise it's experiencing great growth at the moment, see below:




Open Portfolio:


----------



## aus_trader

Two stocks sold from this portfolio. Maca Ltd (*MLD*) and recently bought Hazer Group Ltd (*HZR*) both removed from portfolio as market took a dive today.

Closed Positions:


----------



## aus_trader

With the surge in gold price, added Silver Lake Resources Ltd (*SLR*) to the portfolio. SLR has a great gold mining operation and it shows without looking too deep into it's mining specs as it has nearly half of it's Market Cap in cash and bullion:




Compared to some of it's peers, it also has plenty of mine life left due to the huge gold resource it has.

Open Portfolio:


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## Triple B

Gday AUS.
Can I  ask which broker you use for your speckies trading . cost and execution efficiency would be nice to know to .Im cosiderin a non leveraged cfd acc with fp markets for the small/micro caps not offered on  my current broker account (TD365)
Thanks


----------



## aus_trader

Triple B said:


> Gday AUS.
> Can I  ask which broker you use for your speckies trading . cost and execution efficiency would be nice to know to .Im cosiderin a non leveraged cfd acc with fp markets for the small/micro caps not offered on  my current broker account (TD365)
> Thanks



Hey TripleB, I am using a standard stock broking account as a lot of the CFD providers do not offer the smaller speculative companies in their platform. So after some searching around I found $10 per trade for trades under $1000 with CommSec. For larger trades they charge more but since I only buy parcels of less than $1000 for this speculative portfolio, I find this broker satisfactory.


----------



## aus_trader

Looking to see if this market dip is presenting any buying opportunities for speculative plays. But I don't want to buy too many stocks until there is clear direction that market is heading back higher.

There is quite a few speculative stocks on the ASX related to the Cannabis/Hemp space. Companies range from growing the weed, creating pharmaceutical/therapeutic products with it, innovating new technologies with cultivation and growth of crops that's been applied to increasing weed growth and targeting veterinary/animal health products.

One company that is making some good progress is Elixinol Global Ltd (*EXL*). I think this company is at a more advanced stage than some of it's peers since there is a few commercial products already developed and being sold. Also revenues are increasing from sales:



The market cap is still around 80m with 40m in cash from the recent capital raising. Medicinal Cannabis can add another stream of income down the track and re-rate the company higher. So this was added to the portfolio this morning.

Open Portfolio:



Just aside, another company in the same space, MGC Pharmaceuticals Ltd (*MXC*) went bananas today and shot up before it was halted from trading and ASX has requested an explanation.


----------



## aus_trader

Since doing a lot of research into the Cannabis/Hemp sector, decided to double up exposure in this portfolio by buying another stock. Hydroponics Company Ltd (*THC*) is targeting it's innovative hydroponic growing technologies to grow and increase yields of Cannabis crop. Company is increasing it's global footprint as well and it is proposed to be renamed to THC global group in the future to reflect this.

THC's businesses are in two areas: in the growing of Cannabis for medicinal use as well as it's traditional selling of hydroponics equipment in retail environment. They are particularly targeting the growing micro and home-grown Cannabis markets in the North America and Canada via the sale of their hydroponics equipment in their Crystal Mountain Retail outlet.

They have a growing portfolio of open land and greenhouses for growing the weed:



Open Portfolio:

​


----------



## aus_trader

Aumake International Ltd (*AU8*) has been falling slowly so it is removed from portfolio in case of further falls.

Closed:


----------



## Triple B

aus_trader said:


> Open Portfolio:



Thats what we want to see .  66% green numbers,noice


----------



## aus_trader

Triple B said:


> Thats what we want to see .  66% green numbers,noice



Cut the losers and keep the winners, Yes.


----------



## aus_trader

Presentation out on Bell Financial Group Ltd (*BFG*) today and share price is getting a lift. I think the meat of the presentation slowly getting discovered and it's better than when I first covered the story around two months ago. In case no one has noticed, here it is (circled in red):



Once the fund managers and media gets on to the fact that this is probably the highest yielding financial stock on the market without all the mortgage loans needed to generate it, watch out !

It might just be possible a small % of the billions invested in the Aussie major banks may get re-balanced into BFG as super funds, mutual funds, private equity and the rest of the market looks for better returns from their investments. By the way BFG is only just over $300m currently, as can be seen above.


----------



## aus_trader

The smaller end of the market shows little sign of recovery. Two more stocks sold, DYL and EXL.

Closed Positions:


----------



## aus_trader

More selling. Most stocks have fallen off in the marijuana/weed space, so got out of THC as well after selling EXL yesterday. Also sold FOD.

Closed:


----------



## aus_trader

Since hitting 14c levels YOW has retraced significantly, tempting me to sell. But on this occasion I decided to give it a bit more room to fall further as the Trading Update released today suggest things are going OK. The turn-around is taking place slowly and they are reporting a small profit compared to a loss in the  prior corresponding period(pcp):



Another interesting figure from the above slide is they have 19.5m cash and they have no debt. Market is valuing this company at around 21m (MCap), which suggests value assigned to the actual business is less than a mere 2m or so. Good gosh !


----------



## aus_trader

Simonds Group Ltd (*SIO*) was sold due to liquidity drying up. A huge gap of 32c - 40c roughly was present in the last few days which prompted me to get out so I put an order towards the top of the gap at 37.5c and eventually got filled.

Closed Positions:


----------



## peter2

Lack of liquidity has been a real problem for those of us trading medium term with tighter stops. While it's easy to buy, selling when I want can get tough at times when the bids dry up. 

The reduced daily traded values has reduced my ASX trading universe considerably. This and the fact that the index is dominated by two sectors has me looking towards the US markets.


----------



## aus_trader

peter2 said:


> Lack of liquidity has been a real problem for those of us trading medium term with tighter stops. While it's easy to buy, selling when I want can get tough at times when the bids dry up.
> 
> The reduced daily traded values has reduced my ASX trading universe considerably. This and the fact that the index is dominated by two sectors has me looking towards the US markets.



Precisely Peter, just can't get out at the price you want due to lack of liquidity. I have also reduced my trading frequency to conserve capital for the time being. In fact most of my activity has been selling down existing portfolio positions.
I might also consider looking into the US market as well, more towards the more liquid well traded stocks
to diversify from having just Aussie stocks.​


----------



## peter2

There's a third reason for considering the US markets. Aust is currently politically unstable and has been for a decade. The US mid-term election results have hog-tied Trump and their economy is growing smoothly.


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## aus_trader

Just in case the market continues higher from here without me, I thought to have a little more exposure since I've sold nearly the whole spec portfolio during the 10% drop in the overall market during September-October.

So bought back Food Revolution Group Ltd (*FOD*) into the portfolio. Also there was a distribution deal announcement that could possibly push price higher:




Open Portfolio:


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## aus_trader

I thought the SLR/DRM merger announced yesterday might push the share prices higher for both stocks as a mid-tier larger gold producer when combined. But both companies have share prices going lower since the announcement.

Silver Lake Resources Limited (*SLR*) sold from this portfolio, while this merger complication takes place.

Closed Positions:


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## ezz

Hey All,

I've been out of the market for years. Have been keeping an eye on the asx with a bit of a correction occurring.

Is anyone watching bank stocks. I know they are getting hammered with all the negative news  from the Royal Commission, and the lending environment changing with lending conditions and  current house climate.

All the bank stocks have corrected dramatically. As a medium to long term investment does anyone see value in the Big 4.

- They all have dividends paying above 6% to 8%
- Relatively low PE ratios
- All retracted approximately 20%-25% from this years highs

I'm thinking of buying in seeing really good value here. Just wondering how far further they can drop? Looking at WBC a bit above 25.00 atm, div over 7% or will I be going in too early without any signs of a recovery. Any thoughts?

Cheers
Easy


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## aus_trader

ezz said:


> Hey All,
> 
> I've been out of the market for years. Have been keeping an eye on the asx with a bit of a correction occurring.
> 
> Is anyone watching bank stocks. I know they are getting hammered with all the negative news  from the Royal Commission, and the lending environment changing with lending conditions and  current house climate.
> 
> All the bank stocks have corrected dramatically. As a medium to long term investment does anyone see value in the Big 4.
> 
> - They all have dividends paying above 6% to 8%
> - Relatively low PE ratios
> - All retracted approximately 20%-25% from this years highs
> 
> I'm thinking of buying in seeing really good value here. Just wondering how far further they can drop? Looking at WBC a bit above 25.00 atm, div over 7% or will I be going in too early without any signs of a recovery. Any thoughts?
> 
> Cheers
> Easy



Hi ezz,
Just remember the major banks derive most of their revenue (used for dividend payments) from mortgage payments. So it's very dependent on the state of the economy. Since markets tend to be forward looking I wander if banks have fallen due to an expectation of a slowing economy. All is good now but I think the banks revenues will get hit if there are mortgage struggles with defaults etc.

Since I have exposure to 1 financial stock (BFG) paying above 7% in dividends in this portfolio I am not looking to add the big banks etc as yet...


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## jjbinks

ezz said:


> Hey All,
> 
> - They all have dividends paying above 6% to 8%
> - Relatively low PE ratios
> - All retracted approximately 20%-25% from this years highs




Dividends may be high and PE maybe low now but earnings are likely to drop and probably not grow for several years due to royal commission and slowing of property market.


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## sptrawler

jjbinks said:


> Dividends may be high and PE maybe low now but earnings are likely to drop and probably not grow for several years due to royal commission and slowing of property market.



Are you trying to tell us, people will stop borrowing and start saving? That would be a novel experience for most.


----------



## ezz

I can see support at 25.00 where it's bounced off twice, up past 26.00 now. Anyone think it'll drop below 25?


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## aus_trader

ezz said:


> I can see support at 25.00 where it's bounced off twice, up past 26.00 now. Anyone think it'll drop below 25?



That all depends on if the overall market downtrend continues. By the way WBC is in a downtrend on the daily chart. So unless the markets rally from here it's possible to re-test or break below the $25 level if this downtrend continues, just my opinion.


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## aus_trader

Overall the stocks in the open portfolio are not doing well, being dragged down by the overall market. One exception is Food Revolution Group Ltd (*FOD*) which continues to have great news flow. Today executed a juice supply contract in China which came only a few days after the supply contract win with ALDI.


----------



## ezz

aus_trader said:


> That all depends on if the overall market downtrend continues. By the way WBC is in a downtrend on the daily chart. So unless the markets rally from here it's possible to re-test or break below the $25 level if this downtrend continues, just my opinion.




Fair call, I was thinking of buying in to one of the banks as a long term investment. Just watching to see if it would drop below to 25.00 and see if it continues its downtrend a little further.


----------



## aus_trader

ezz said:


> Fair call, I was thinking of buying in to one of the banks as a long term investment. Just watching to see if it would drop below to 25.00 and see if it continues its downtrend a little further.



I wish I could predict when the downtrend would stop and uptrend starts. Anyway WBC may be a better option than CBA since CBA is Australia's biggest holder of mortgage debt. Yes CBA earns the biggest slice of mortgage interest but could also be most susceptible if housing tumbles.


----------



## ezz

aus_trader said:


> I wish I could predict when the downtrend would stop and uptrend starts. Anyway WBC may be a better option than CBA since CBA is Australia's biggest holder of mortgage debt. Yes CBA earns the biggest slice of mortgage interest but could also be most susceptible if housing tumbles.




Had a buy order go through, 7.4% div at current price. Long term investment. Bit of a bloodbath today for the market and the banks. Hoping to see some reasonable steady improvement over the next 5 years.


aus_trader said:


> I wish I could predict when the downtrend would stop and uptrend starts. Anyway WBC may be a better option than CBA since CBA is Australia's biggest holder of mortgage debt. Yes CBA earns the biggest slice of mortgage interest but could also be most susceptible if housing tumbles.




Just bought in today as a long term investment, pulled up an 18 year chart hoping to see a slow recovery over the next few years. Hard to go past 7.4% dividend, even if divs drop off a bit. I know market conditions, tighter lending standards, correction in housing prices are in play, hoping market price has factored these risks in and as that it has been slightly overplayed. Bloodbath today across the market.


----------



## aus_trader

ezz said:


> Had a buy order go through, 7.4% div at current price. Long term investment. Bit of a bloodbath today for the market and the banks. Hoping to see some reasonable steady improvement over the next 5 years.
> 
> 
> Just bought in today as a long term investment, pulled up an 18 year chart hoping to see a slow recovery over the next few years. Hard to go past 7.4% dividend, even if divs drop off a bit. I know market conditions, tighter lending standards, correction in housing prices are in play, hoping market price has factored these risks in and as that it has been slightly overplayed. Bloodbath today across the market.



Dividend yield is good, let's see how it goes...


----------



## aus_trader

Clean Seas Seafood Ltd (*CSS*) is going through a share consolidation at the moment. Code is changed to CSSDA temporarily.


----------



## aus_trader

Gold seems to be holding up well amongst the market decline we are seeing. The falls are coming from the financial sector mainly and I had to let go of my only holding exposed to this sector Bell Financial Group Ltd (*BFG*) this morning. It's a great stock with a fantastic yield but not comfortable holding in this market environment.

Closed positions:


----------



## aus_trader

It's bee a long time since I bought any speculative stocks. And looking back I think that was a good move since any positions would have been held only for a short time as the market continued down.

Still cautious about overall market but I decided to buy back Zip Co Ltd(*Z1P*) that I have had in this portfolio before. It's having some price move from consolidating for a while which is similar to what is seen on the bigger multi-billion dollar rival Afterpay Touch Group Ltd (*APT*).

*PS:* I have also changed Qty for the CSS shares to allow for the share split/consolidation that took place recently.

Open Portfolio:


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## aus_trader

Just got out of Yowie Group Ltd (*YOW*). I've given it enough time to see a recovery. Management keeps going on and on about the tough retail environment and the amazing success and increasing market share of it's biggest competitor, which caused the latest plunge in share price.

Closed Positions:


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## aus_trader

Zip Co Ltd (*Z1P*) has had a great day up 6.7% on news Chemist warehouse joining Zip Platform.


----------



## aus_trader

After a nice move up to 20c, Food Revolution Group Ltd (*FOD*) has fallen steadily and was sold today. 

Closed:


----------



## aus_trader

Gold price has dropped a bit and I have decided to sell Aurelia Metals Ltd(AMI) position. The sell order got filled just now.




Closed Positions:


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## aus_trader

Clean Seas Seafood Ltd (*CSS*) was sold today. It was punished by the market yesterday after the numbers came out. I think the fact that the company still hasn't got to Break Even numbers must have frustrated the big market players. I'll keep it in a watchlist, now that it is sold...

Although the market has been in a strong rally since the start of the year, I felt cautious buying into it. In fact some of the Gold related Entities in the Medium/Longer Term Stock Portfolio is a reflection of this. I haven't gone out digging up every speculative stock and loading up on the good ones with this market rally. I am still on the cautious side and happy to buy cautiously into defensive stocks. One such stock was added to the Medium/Longer Term Stock Portfolio today.

Closed Positions:


----------



## aus_trader

Zip Co Ltd (*Z1P*) has had a good run and I have decided to take profits as it is offering a Share Purchase Plan at 1.53 which I should be eligible to. The allocation could be so tiny though as they are capping the maximum to be raised at 5m.

Closed Positions:



Got a fair bit of cash as a result of selling this portfolio but in no hurry to speculate at the moment.

Also there a low-ball bid put in for the Children's Chocolate manufacturer Yowie Group Ltd (*YOW*) which was sold from this portfolio not long ago.


----------



## aus_trader

Oil price has been going up recently so have been looking into buying one of the more established oil players since the speculative end generally have their own shocks independent of the oil price.

Beach Energy Ltd (BPT) has run up so hard recently and near all time highs, so didn't pick that as there may be a pull back as soon as I buy. So decided to buy some Woodside Petroleum Limited (WPL) shares since the share price has actually pulled back despite a strong oil price. Not sure of holding long term so it's not in my Medium/Longer Term Stock Portfolio.

Open Portfolio:


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## aus_trader

Cash box waiting to be discovered...

In the same area of oil/gas research I was doing which led me to buy *WPL* yesterday, found a spec play with more cash than it's current market cap. Company is Karoon Energy Ltd (*KAR*) which has been in this portfolio before. Current market cap is around 255m but it has 330m cash and no debt. What about any value attributed to it's oil/gas exploration assets?

With Oil price slowly moving up, I am happy to take a stake given that KAR should be limited on the downside due to the cash backing. In fact if fund managers and private equity trusts discover this it may even get a share price boost due to the arbitrage opportunity.

Open Portfolio:


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## aus_trader

Zip Co Ltd (*Z1P*) shares from Share Purchase Plan (SPP) were listed today. Only 500 shares appeared in my account. Not sure how this was worked out initially, but then I came across their method of allocation:



I was hoping for a full 15% allocation as has been calculated by Zaxon in this #28 post. Since my parcel was too small to break up into "sell a portion and keep a portion", I sold the allocated 500 shares today.

Closed Positions:


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## aus_trader

Normally I look at market forces driving the markets such as price of Oil/Gold and individual company fundamentals. Although I don't look for specific patterns etc on the charts to make a buy decision, I do check out the chart of the stock or index that I am buying.

If chart reading / technical analysis can help to improve the performance then that's something that is really worth considering. Although I don't like analysis-paralysis, it's good to have a few more tick boxes to increase the chance of picking stocks that's poised to head higher. This gives the stock more of a "weight of evidence" criteria for selection rather than a single criteria.

So I've been monitoring some of the stocks of interest including some of the recent sells to check if it may be worth entering. Aurelia Metals Ltd (*AMI*) was one such stock that was recently sold in this portfolio. When it produced a Pin bar a couple of days ago on the 24th of April, I was interested. So I thought if it heads higher from there then the pin bar may signal selling exhaustion and I'll buy it...




That's what it did today, so bought some shares this morning.

Open Portfolio:


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## Zaxon

aus_trader said:


> That's what it did today, so bought some shares this morning.



I too own AMI, and have done for a while.  Gold stocks were very hot there for a while, but they all seem to have died of late.  Now AMI isn't a pure gold play.  They also do base metals.  Here is their breakdown:



If you compare the gold price (their biggest revenue source) to AMI over the last 12 months, I wouldn't say their share price matches gold that closely, though obviously it's influenced by it.


Gold


AMI


----------



## aus_trader

Zaxon said:


> I too own AMI, and have done for a while.  Gold stocks were very hot there for a while, but they all seem to have died of late.  Now AMI isn't a pure gold play.  They also do base metals.  Here is their breakdown:
> View attachment 94187
> 
> 
> If you compare the gold price (their biggest revenue source) to AMI over the last 12 months, I wouldn't say their share price matches gold that closely, though obviously it's influenced by it.
> 
> 
> Gold
> View attachment 94185
> 
> AMI
> View attachment 94186




What I also like about AMI is it's actually producing a fair bit of cash.

Talking about gold miners in general, it's one thing having a large deposit (M Oz's) or some frantic operation pumping out a gazillion ounces per annum but a lot of gold operations are barely profitable. Some of the operations I have come across just looks not even feasible at current gold prices. I mean if an operation costs somewhere in the vicinity of US$1200 per ounce to pull the stuff out is it even worth it?

Not the case with AMI, it has a lucrative margin that gives a good buffer to stay profitable even if gold prices were to drop quite a bit. To add to your slides Zaxon, here's the low-down on it's profitability numbers:



I specially like the bit where the *Cash/(Net Debt)* jumped from a 32mil in debt last year to a 100mil+ cash this year !


----------



## tech/a

Zaxon said:


> I too own AMI, and have done for a while.  Gold stocks were very hot there for a while, but they all seem to have died of late.  Now AMI isn't a pure gold play.  They also do base metals.  Here is their breakdown:
> View attachment 94187
> 
> 
> If you compare the gold price (their biggest revenue source) to AMI over the last 12 months, I wouldn't say their share price matches gold that closely, though obviously it's influenced by it.
> 
> 
> Gold
> View attachment 94185
> 
> AMI
> View attachment 94186




Price is only moving between 60 and 80 cents 
Potential profit is limited in my chartist view 
Until something indicates a trend.
Think there are better opportunities.


----------



## Zaxon

tech/a said:


> Price is only moving between 60 and 80 cents
> Potential profit is limited in my chartist view
> Until something indicates a trend.
> Think there are better opportunities.




The monthly chart shows a steady downward trend, so I've been far less impressed with AMI of late.  It's total return over the last 12 months is 89.6%, so it has been an amazing stock.  Currently I'm holding on to see if the monthly trend continues or reverses.  But certainly in the short term, better opportunities elsewhere.


----------



## aus_trader

tech/a said:


> Price is only moving between 60 and 80 cents
> Potential profit is limited in my chartist view
> Until something indicates a trend.
> Think there are better opportunities.




You could be right. However at the current profit capacity, the valuation for this stock is not stretched, see below:


I guess the big factor that could determine which way the stock may break out of the trading range you mentioned is the price of Gold. If gold goes lower, I guess the stock may slide along with it. However if gold soars, watch out


----------



## Zaxon

aus_trader said:


> I guess the big factor that could determine which way the stock may break out of the trading range you mentioned is the price of Gold.



What's been dogging AMI specifically of late is the rumour that they may buy Glencore's CSA mine.  We've been discussing this (elsewhere) for a while, but finally AMI put out a statement about it.


----------



## aus_trader

Zaxon said:


> What's been dogging AMI specifically of late is the rumour that they may buy Glencore's CSA mine.  We've been discussing this (elsewhere) for a while, but finally AMI put out a statement about it.
> 
> View attachment 94228



Hey Zaxon can you please put a bit more information about this possible acquisition here buddy ? It would be easier if you've been discussing it elsewhere with others already. Just cut and paste or summarise what you know about the merits or demerits of this possible purchase. I know I would appreciate it and any others reading this thread would as well.


----------



## Zaxon

aus_trader said:


> Hey Zaxon can you please put a bit more information about this possible acquisition here buddy ?



Essentially Glencore is having some regulatory issues.  They're trying to sell down non-core assets to free up some cash.  Glencore has no other assets in the CSA Mine area.

However, AMI do.  So it's a natural fit for them.  Glencore, however, is asking too much for it.  AMI said they would be interested in acquiring CSA, but not at the price Glencore is asking.

Separately, AMI has gone into a trading halt today.  They're losing someone in upper management.  Must be someone very significant to warrant a halt.


----------



## aus_trader

Zaxon said:


> Essentially Glencore is having some regulatory issues.  They're trying to sell down non-core assets to free up some cash.  Glencore has no other assets in the CSA Mine area.
> 
> However, AMI do.  So it's a natural fit for them.  Glencore, however, is asking too much for it.  AMI said they would be interested in acquiring CSA, but not at the price Glencore is asking.
> 
> Separately, AMI has gone into a trading halt today.  They're losing someone in upper management.  Must be someone very significant to warrant a halt.



Thanks mate, good information to know. It's good AMI is not buying the distressed assets at any old price and paying too much. Sometimes the newly acquired asset could be the drag on a good company like AMI. I know a similar situation occurred with Metals X Limited(MLX), a profitable miner that was pumping out cash like clockwork from a Tin operation they own. However Buying another mining asset called Nifty has caused the company to bleed cash ever since and the share price is on the slide as well. Miner and myself have been discussing it for a while including today in the MLX thread.


----------



## aus_trader

Karoon Energy Ltd (KAR) was sold this morning. It's a cash box but don't know when that value will be realised so rather than waiting forever I decided to put some of that money to better use with other investments.

Bought Aveo Grp (AOG) which is another healthcare operator in the Aged Care industry, similar to one of my holdings EHE in the Medium/Longer Term Stock Portfolio. However I have followed AOG over the years as well and since it has been in some -ve press which caused the share price do drag lower and lower. But offers 3.6% dividend yield and price may have hit bottom. Don't know if it has any further downside due to ghosts from the past, so that's why it's bought as a speculative play in this portfolio.



Open Portfolio:



Closed:


----------



## aus_trader

Rather than recovering Aurelia Metals Ltd (AMI) is making lows so exited the position today. Perhaps all the time and effort going into researching stocks can only take me so far. I like looking under the hood to see what a business is like before buying and despite the poor track record on this portfolio I have become better and better at recognising good businesses from the duds having spent countless hours doing stock research. When there is forces outside of my control such as with company management and change of sentiment, unfortunately I also have to exit the stock despite having good business fundamentals.

The reason why this portfolio is not well populated is because I missed most of the latest rally since January as I have been putting all my business researching skills into building my own business. I can get far better returns if I put the same effort that I put into researching publicly listed companies into building and running my own company. I am in control and I can see what I need to do to improve my sales, reduce costs and therefore improve margins. I also know how to make use of existing resources within the business, for example if my business was shaping to be like a "cash box" I know how to put that into immediate and effective use to grow existing product lines or to try out new exciting products that could grow my business. With the stock market, I am at it's mercy which is why I have to exit good businesses like AMI and the 'cash box' oil/gas explorer KAR.

I was looking for a way to start my own business with low startup capital since I don't want to put all of my savings into it or to liquidate both of my share portfolios to fund it. I came across a similar business model last year but it was more American based and the dude running the course was asking thousands of dollars up front. So I was reluctant to join. This year I came across similar opportunity and it was based on the Australian market and the mentor is an Aussie. The big 'green button' for me to go ahead was it was a pay as you go / cancel anytime course which was a low startup cost for me which means both of my stock portfolios are untouched and mostly full of cash at the moment. I don't normally recommend anything unless I am doing it myself and this is an early bird opportunity in the Aussie market so there's plenty to go around. If anyone is interested about what sort of business I am running, you can check out the training on the link below. It's starting to work for me, but as always DYOR...

http://tinyurl.com/amazon4aussies

Closed today:


----------



## aus_trader

Inghams Group Ltd (*ING*) added to this portfolio as mentioned in the ING thread. Although I look at as a possible longer-term dividend payer, the stock is highly volatile so I will monitor it's price behaviour in this portfolio.


----------



## aus_trader

With market breaking the 6500 barrier led by the massive rally in banking stocks, I decided to add a few more positions to this portfolio, especially stocks that have been hammered and presenting excellent dividend yields:




CSR dividend coming up on the 30th of this month, so hope to be holding then...

Open Portfolio:


----------



## aus_trader

With a big down day in Oil, I sold my Woodside Petroleum Limited (WPL) position. WPL chart itself looks OK but I was just being cautious due to oil chart:




Closed Positions:


----------



## willoneau

aus_trader said:


> With a big down day in Oil, I sold my Woodside Petroleum Limited (WPL) position. WPL chart itself looks OK but I was just being cautious due to oil chart:
> 
> View attachment 94926
> 
> 
> Closed Positions:
> View attachment 94927



Hi aus_trader ,
looking at your table and wondering what is the difference between your P/l and total P/l ? did notice the div in one stock
should total P/L be running tally?
I guess seeing all that red i would be curious to see if your in front.
the other usual stats would be interesting too.


----------



## willoneau

Also after looking at a trade you took in AMI on 11SEP -18 i could understand your entry but not your exit?
Also i noticed the chart doesn't take into account the commision drag.


----------



## aus_trader

willoneau said:


> Hi aus_trader ,
> looking at your table and wondering what is the difference between your P/l and total P/l ? did notice the div in one stock
> should total P/L be running tally?



Hi willoneau, the P/L is just the Sell price - Buy price multiplied by the number of shares i.e capital gain/loss only. The Total P/L is capital gain/loss + any dividends received. Since this is a speculative portfolio there is very few dividends received.

By the way I am looking forward to including more dividend paying stocks in this portfolio going forward. This portfolio has been a good learning experience for me and I find the ultra-speculative end of the spectrum is not easy for stock picking in. I will still research the penny stocks but reasons have to be so compelling that it might be 1 stock that I pick after researching 20 to 50 stocks. Even if there are no candidates after doing back-breaking (sitting down for hours is not good for the back ) research for 100 penny stocks, that's fine I don't want to buy something just to justify my time and effort.

willoneau sounds like Will O'Neal, just a thought.


----------



## willoneau

What software are you using to search?
I understand how you get the results, what is total profit or loss after your commission after all those trades?
I use amibroker with a simple breakout search to find stocks that i might trade in.
Are you searching technically or fundamentally?


----------



## aus_trader

willoneau said:


> Also after looking at a trade you took in AMI on 11SEP -18 i could understand your entry but not your exit?
> Also i noticed the chart doesn't take into account the commision drag.




AMI was exited because it was tanking and I wanted to minimise further losses.

I do have commissions on each of the trades but do not record it for this portfolio. All I am interested in is the % profit and not the $ amount. All I want achieve is a +ve % return and I am happy to continue this portfolio and slowly increase the position sizing. If I look at the $ amounts after brokerage it will show a very low profit or a -ve profit. But for me that doesn't matter as I want to see there is an edge if I traded $10,000+ per position for the same entries and exits because then brokerage will be insignificant. For your info, brokerage varies from $9.95 to ~$13 depending how frequently I trade due to tiers based on trading frequency offered. It is all accounted for during tax time.


----------



## aus_trader

willoneau said:


> What software are you using to search?
> I understand how you get the results, what is total profit or loss after your commission after all those trades?
> I use amibroker with a simple breakout search to find stocks that i might trade in.
> Are you searching technically or fundamentally?



I search stocks fundamentally first. I may search based on P/E, Dividend Yield and if the company has Debt then Interest Cover etc. For the small end of the market these don't really come into play since the penny stocks are usually yet to make a profit so no P/E's or Dividends. I also check the chart before buying anything.

I took $20 out of every P/L to come up with a total P/L for you, although it is not 100% accurate as my brokerage varies as I mentioned before. Anyway the net result is still +ve number which is good. It came to:


----------



## willoneau

I use commsec which is $10 each way (under $1000)  and $20 conditional orders


----------



## aus_trader

willoneau said:


> I use commsec which is $10 each way (under $1000)  and $20 conditional orders



My portfolio is with CMC markets with variable brokerage as stated above.


----------



## Zaxon

aus_trader said:


> AMI was exited because it was tanking and I wanted to minimise further losses.



Good to see you joined the "angry birds" I believe you called them.  AMI hasn't got any better.


----------



## willoneau

Quick summery of your chart,
total trades=52
wins=17
losses=35
win%=33
av win236.78
av loss=74.82
av return per trade=27.12
payoff ratio=3.16
expectancy=0.36
profit=$1497.7 gross
commision ($10 each way )=1040
net profit= $457.7


----------



## willoneau

Great win / loss ratio but commision drag kills.


----------



## aus_trader

Zaxon said:


> Good to see you joined the "angry birds" I believe you called them.  AMI hasn't got any better.
> View attachment 94948



Yes, I realise that sentiment takes time to change and I like to be agile in this portfolio and not wait and hope for stocks to turn around. willoneau has kindly done analysis of this portfolio and it has a +ve expectancy so despite the long losing streaks (painful) it has shown to make a bit of money in the long haul (so far...). The results would have been so much worse if I held onto some of the ultra speculative stocks that have continued to fall. There would have been a winner or two such as EXL that was cut short but it would not have made up for all the losers should they have been held.


----------



## aus_trader

willoneau said:


> Quick summery of your chart,
> total trades=52
> wins=17
> losses=35
> win%=33
> av win236.78
> av loss=74.82
> av return per trade=27.12
> payoff ratio=3.16
> expectancy=0.36
> profit=$1497.7 gross
> commision ($10 each way )=1040
> net profit= $457.7



Awesome analysis mate, is there a quicker way to do this type of analysis (e.g. Excel) or all manual entry ?


----------



## willoneau

aus_trader said:


> Awesome analysis mate, is there a quicker way to do this type of analysis (e.g. Excel) or all manual entry ?



Yes there are many free excel spread sheets around just go looking.
that is what i did, also you can now go back and look more deeply into how you are trading and what works for you.


----------



## willoneau

A good start, aus_trader is to look at all those losses and especially were you got out and why. Or even all those wins and where and why you got out.
Was it technically based or emotional?


----------



## willoneau

The AMI example when you closed on 4 march 19, it was an up day ?
the large range day and volume on the 11 would have been good place to place a stop below.


----------



## willoneau

excel i used.


----------



## willoneau

Hope that helps aus_trader, a place to start anyway.


----------



## aus_trader

willoneau said:


> A good start, aus_trader is to look at all those losses and especially were you got out and why. Or even all those wins and where and why you got out.
> Was it technically based or emotional?



Yes good point, I will review all the closed trades to learn from.


----------



## aus_trader

willoneau said:


> Hope that helps aus_trader, a place to start anyway.



Yes, a good place to get started with analysis. Thank you.


----------



## aus_trader

Two stocks added today to this portfolio. First is Duxton Water Ltd(D2O), which has a utility like quality as it presents an opportunity to invest in Australia's water entitlements to a number of agricultural industries. Also has s good dividend yield which is stable.




Next stock bought was a media stock, Seven West Media Ltd (SWM) which has been hammered so hard from recent highs around $1.10 level and could be finding some long-held support levels around the 47c. The stock is well known brand which includes Channel 7 television and West Australian Newspapers and Yahoo 7. It also has a multi-year agreement with Cricket Australia, which was always aired on Channel 9 if people remember. So I thought it's worth a punt and offers a moderate 2.6% dividend yield at current prices.



There is also "Undervalued" estimation from the institutional/brokerage valuations, although I always consider these with a grain of salt.



Open Portfolio:


----------



## aus_trader

In the Portfolio table, I have not included the 13c dividend on the CSR position which I should be receiving since I held the CSR shares on the 30th of May (yesterday).


----------



## aus_trader

Small Caps are taking a fair hit and underperforming the All Ordinaries by quite a margin !

I thought to post a quick update on this thread as quite a few people own stocks in this space (including this portfolio) and other members trade in/out of them regularly. My D2O position has gone down 5.4% as well today, but I am still holding.

Below is the underperformance of Small Caps vs All Ord's:




Here are some of the contributors which are mostly in the Small to Mid Cap space except SVW which is a Large Cap:




The best sector today was Gold mining and Gold related stocks, see below as nearly all top gainers today were Small/Medium Gold miners:




Even Newcrest was Up a lot for a Giant Cap:



I added a speculative Gold miner that hasn't run up as hard to this portfolio but will update details later in the stock table. Company is Perseus Mining Limited (PRU).


----------



## Zaxon

aus_trader said:


> Small Caps are taking a fair hit and underperforming the All Ordinaries by quite a margin !



Oh yeah, I felt the pain today!  The general market fall + the small cap addition fall + that individual stocks are more volatile than an index, all adds up to plenty of fun.

I give my stocks sufficient wiggle room, and I've been pleased to see that even with the recent drops we've been having, none of my stocks have hit any safety barriers I have in place.  But they know where the chopping block is if they underperform.


----------



## aus_trader

Zaxon said:


> Oh yeah, I felt the pain today!  The general market fall + the small cap addition fall + that individual stocks are more volatile than an index, all adds up to plenty of fun.
> 
> I give my stocks sufficient wiggle room, and I've been pleased to see that even with the recent drops we've been having, none of my stocks have hit any safety barriers I have in place.  But they know where the chopping block is if they underperform.



Good to hear that you have allowed sufficient wiggle room, I have been caught out too many times not doing this only to see stocks rising higher without me 

Just make sure you stick to your plan though in case things go into a bear market territory which we haven't had in a long time...


----------



## aus_trader

Current Portfolio:


----------



## Zaxon

aus_trader said:


> I have been caught out too many times not doing this only to see stocks rising higher without me



And that's a grey area between cutting your losses early and being a hero in a severe downturn, and cutting too early and being stopped out unnecessary in a momentary dip.  I don't think there's an "best answer" to how much wiggle room you should leave.  


aus_trader said:


> Just make sure you stick to your plan though in case things go into a bear market territory which we haven't had in a long time...



You're right it has been a long time.  I've spent some time of late, mulling over future bear markets and tweaking my plan.


----------



## aus_trader

Zaxon said:


> You're right it has been a long time. I've spent some time of late, mulling over future bear markets and tweaking my plan.



Yes it's easy to forget that market can go in both directions especially when we have had a fairly good run since GFC and globally (e.g. US) markets have been soaring.

Even in the property market people can be disillusioned. Especially the young generation who believe that property can only go in one direction. Who can blame them when all they've seen in their whole life is the last 20+ years of property boom in Australia.


----------



## aus_trader

Added two companies to the portfolio. First is 5G Networks Ltd (5GN) a company in the leading telecom area and the other is Orthocell Ltd (OCC),a biotech punt.

I normally stay away from small biotech companies since they are harder to predict than the winner on Melbourne Cup day. OCC however is in 'regenerative medicine', an area that has a lot of future potential based on my research. Other triggers are (1) Their recent results from patient trial and (2) recent capital raising so they have sufficient cash for a while.

Open Portfolio:


----------



## willoneau

Zaxon said:


> And that's a grey area between cutting your losses early and being a hero in a severe downturn, and cutting too early and being stopped out unnecessary in a momentary dip.  I don't think there's an "best answer" to how much wiggle room you should leave.
> 
> You're right it has been a long time.  I've spent some time of late, mulling over future bear markets and tweaking my plan.



Hi Zaxon , using a index filter will at least stop you from getting into more trades when it turns south if you use a system to pick the stocks to enter. Also can signal when to tighten your trailing stop or change the type of stop you would use in those conditions as stated in other threads.


----------



## Zaxon

willoneau said:


> Hi Zaxon , using a index filter will at least stop you from getting into more trades when it turns south



I think that's a good idea.  If you're in a bear market, it's no use entering the market on the hopes that some shiny stock will buck the trend.  In sideways markets, however, it becomes this grey area of making profits with one stock, then giving it all back with another.


----------



## aus_trader

willoneau/Zaxon, what do you guys reckon about using a moving average type simple indicator as the index filter ? Problem is as Zaxon mentioned, it's going to chop up and down like crazy and pretty useless in a sideways market. What are the methods used by others ?

Is there a better way e.g. % drop ? I've read in many forums and articles that a 20% drop in the index is considered as the start of a bear market.


----------



## Zaxon

aus_trader said:


> what do you guys reckon about using a moving average type simple indicator as the index filter ?



I think an indicator such as a moving average is ideal.  A MA, by definition, is a lagging average.  So if the index retraces all the way back to below a MA, then you can argue the trend is over.

The only question is how many days should that MA be?  I don't think you'll find consensus on a particular figure.


aus_trader said:


> Problem is as Zaxon mentioned, it's going to chop up and down like crazy and pretty useless in a sideways market.



That's right.  You could wait until the market fell below the MA sufficiently to "prove itself" before reacting.  For instance, if the market trends below the MA for a week or two and continues downward, you could retrospectively call the MA cross the start of a "real" correction or bear market.  Kind of like The Fed gives an initial GDP figure, and then confirms or retrospectively revises it a month later.


aus_trader said:


> Is there a better way e.g. % drop ? I've read in many forums and articles that a 20% drop in the index is considered as the start of a bear market.



That's the official definition.  I'd argue it's really no better.  What do you call a market that drops by 20% from its peak, and then sideways trends for 3 years.  Is it a bear market?  Yes.  But also it's not going down anymore, so no.  I feel it has the same limitations at the moving average cross.

I guess a better definition of a bear market is one where each month's low is lower than the previous month.  Or something along those lines.

An excellent question btw.


----------



## aus_trader

Zaxon said:


> I think an indicator such as a moving average is ideal.  A MA, by definition, is a lagging average.  So if the index retraces all the way back to below a MA, then you can argue the trend is over.
> 
> The only question is how many days should that MA be?  I don't think you'll find consensus on a particular figure.
> 
> That's right.  You could wait until the market fell below the MA sufficiently to "prove itself" before reacting.  For instance, if the market trends below the MA for a week or two and continues downward, you could retrospectively call the MA cross the start of a "real" correction or bear market.  Kind of like The Fed gives an initial GDP figure, and then confirms or retrospectively revises it a month later.
> 
> That's the official definition.  I'd argue it's really no better.  What do you call a market that drops by 20% from its peak, and then sideways trends for 3 years.  Is it a bear market?  Yes.  But also it's not going down anymore, so no.  I feel it has the same limitations at the moving average cross.
> 
> I guess a better definition of a bear market is one where each month's low is lower than the previous month.  Or something along those lines.
> 
> An excellent question btw.



Excellent response to the question too Zaxon. I think moving averages and other indicators are warning signs and could be used to manage individual stock positions. The 20% drop on the index is the last line of defence for deciding drastic action such as portfolio liquidation. I am putting a plan together along these lines to avoid the pain experienced during the GFC. The lessons learnt from GFC should not be forgotten otherwise I will make the same mistakes again next time.


----------



## willoneau

Hi aus_trader, a simple MA on the index will work fine as it there to stop you taking another trade and pay attention to the trades you have on. No indicator will be perfect but having one should help, go back and test your closed positions with and without a filter to see if your bottom line improves with it?


----------



## Zaxon

aus_trader said:


> The 20% drop on the index is the last line of defence for deciding drastic action such as portfolio liquidation.



It's that level of detail I'm working on in refining my plan as well.  So this discussion comes at an excellent time!

You've got two choices on how to exit your positions.  If you determine the bull market is over, you stop buying more stocks, and:
A) The Voluntary Retrenchment Method: use the risk management of your individual positions to exit their trades.
B) The Forced Retrenchment Method: "take all your shares around the back of the shed" and force liquidate them all, regardless of whether they're individually ready for it or not.

I like your suggestion of a 20% (official bear) as being the line in the sand.  So after a drop below an MA, you would slowly exit positions as it made sense for that position.  If the market hit the 20% - the rest get the chop.

A few more questions arise from this:

After you liquid your positions, what then?  You have the option of going to cash, or alternatively, trading futures/options/warrants to start profiting from the down market.
An MA of how many days do you use?  Typical figures used are: MA(50) = short term, and MA(200) = long term, but the days used is really arbitrary. 
What if the market enters an official Bear, but then trends sideways for a long period.  Do you dabble in the sideways market?  Do you wait for the 20% official Bull before re-entering?


----------



## Trav.

@aus_trader I found this site had a good example and explanation. I did trial it on my back tests but have switched of for now and will need further refining.

https://www.marketindex.com.au/asx-filter




Good luck mate


----------



## tech/a

Approx the 45 period and 105 period M/A crossover 
So reasonably longer term 
M/A s to me are at best an approximation.
In my view you need something more to confirm
That any crossover has a higher chance of being sustainable.


----------



## Zaxon

Trav. said:


> I found this site had a good example and explanation.



I'm quite familiar with this site.  Their own testing shows a buy & hold approach outperformed their index-filter-driven market timing: 294% vs 149.5%




The point they make is that their drawdown was considerably lower: 8.4% vs 53.4% for buy & hold, and the profit/risk ratio is better.

I don't whether you can generalize these results, and whether buy & hold outperforms most index filtering or not over the long term.  This is only one test.  But I find the results quite interesting.


----------



## Zaxon

tech/a said:


> Approx the 45 period and 105 period M/A crossover
> So reasonably longer term



Is that your "don't open any new positions" or "close out all existing positions" indicator?


----------



## tech/a

Trav. said:


> @aus_trader I found this site had a good example and explanation. I did trial it on my back tests but have switched of for now and will need further refining.
> 
> https://www.marketindex.com.au/asx-filter
> 
> View attachment 95459
> 
> 
> Good luck mate




Talking about this Zaxon


----------



## Zaxon

tech/a said:


> Talking about this Zaxon




I believe they use 9 EMA cross over 21 EMA on weekly.


----------



## tech/a

Errrrrr Yeh

Roughly a 45 period and 105 period *DAILY* M/A


----------



## Ann

tech/a said:


> Errrrrr Yeh
> 
> Roughly a 45 period and 105 period *DAILY* M/A




I would have thought 45 and 105 daily might be a bit slow, a 9 and 21 daily would give a faster response without closing you out too often. You would have a long wait for a 45/105 daily cross on a weekly.


----------



## Zaxon

Ann said:


> I would have thought 45 and 105 daily might be a bit slow



I agree.  If you wait for a 105 day cross from the start of a bear market before you exit, you've missed the boat.


----------



## tech/a

Man oh man

A 9 period WEEKLY M/A is roughly equivalent to a 45 Day DAILY 

Just saying thought you Technical geniuses would have got it!


----------



## aus_trader

Zaxon said:


> It's that level of detail I'm working on in refining my plan as well.  So this discussion comes at an excellent time!
> 
> You've got two choices on how to exit your positions.  If you determine the bull market is over, you stop buying more stocks, and:
> A) The Voluntary Retrenchment Method: use the risk management of your individual positions to exit their trades.
> B) The Forced Retrenchment Method: "take all your shares around the back of the shed" and force liquidate them all, regardless of whether they're individually ready for it or not.
> 
> I like your suggestion of a 20% (official bear) as being the line in the sand.  So after a drop below an MA, you would slowly exit positions as it made sense for that position.  If the market hit the 20% - the rest get the chop.
> 
> A few more questions arise from this:
> 
> After you liquid your positions, what then?  You have the option of going to cash, or alternatively, trading futures/options/warrants to start profiting from the down market.
> An MA of how many days do you use?  Typical figures used are: MA(50) = short term, and MA(200) = long term, but the days used is really arbitrary.
> What if the market enters an official Bear, but then trends sideways for a long period.  Do you dabble in the sideways market?  Do you wait for the 20% official Bull before re-entering?



Pretty much sums up my way of thinking as well.

The 20% index drop would be used to exit any "still remaining" positions that haven't been closed out using stop losses etc. Keep only what you wish to hold longer term e.g. a defensive stock that usually goes up in bear markets or gold related investments that you wish to not sell out of.

Getting back is not a sudden buy back with a 20% rise. That would be a very late entry. Start slow as the market rises and buy a few positions and only add more positions once market makes higher prices to keep exposure to a minimum during a bear market temporary rally.


----------



## aus_trader

Trav. said:


> @aus_trader I found this site had a good example and explanation. I did trial it on my back tests but have switched of for now and will need further refining.
> 
> https://www.marketindex.com.au/asx-filter
> 
> View attachment 95459
> 
> 
> Good luck mate



Good article Trav.


----------



## aus_trader

tech/a said:


> Approx the 45 period and 105 period M/A crossover
> So reasonably longer term
> M/A s to me are at best an approximation.
> In my view you need something more to confirm
> That any crossover has a higher chance of being sustainable.



What other tools do you use to confirm ?


----------



## tech/a

aus_trader said:


> What other tools do you use to confirm ?




I don’t use this at all
All I was doing was commenting on post #242
Sorry I’ll leave the room

Leave you all to it.


----------



## Ann

tech/a said:


> Man oh man
> 
> A 9 period WEEKLY M/A is roughly equivalent to a 45 Day DAILY
> 
> Just saying thought you Technical geniuses would have got it!



No Tech/a, the 9 and 21 is the daily MA placed onto a weekly chart. It is not a 9 weekly it is a 9 daily just placed over a weekly. That is what we are talking about.


----------



## Zaxon

aus_trader said:


> gold related investments that you wish to not sell out of.



Yup.  The exception being in 2008. Shares, property (in the US at least), and gold all crashed at the same time, which temporarily broke the conventional wisdom of gold being a risk-off asset, with a drop of 25%.






aus_trader said:


> Getting back is not a sudden buy back with a 20% rise. That would be a very late entry. Start slow as the market rises and buy a few positions and only add more positions once market makes higher prices to keep exposure to a minimum during a bear market temporary rally.



I like that idea, and one I hadn't considered.  In a sense, it mirrors what we do on the way down: a ramping of the number of positions we hold over time.


----------



## Ann

aus_trader said:


> What other tools do you use to confirm ?



I don't believe Tech/a uses tools from the comments he has made to me in the past. I think his approach is pretty much just gaps and volume all the rest he regards as simply vanilla charts!


----------



## tech/a

Anne you can’t be serious 

It’s a 9 Period each period is a week 
9 weeks is 45 DAILY Periods used in a daily chart!

Back to T/A school

Think before you reply it makes you look like a novice.


----------



## Ann

tech/a said:


> Anne you can’t be serious
> 
> It’s a 9 Period each period is a week
> 9 weeks is 45 DAILY Periods used in a daily chart!
> 
> Back to T/A school
> 
> Think before you reply it makes you look like a novice.




I think you are blinding yourself with science Tech/a. KISS


----------



## Joules MM1

@tech/a re-engage ....go on

 brought popcorn for this one


----------



## Ann

Joules MM1 said:


> @tech/a re-engage ....go on
> 
> brought popcorn for this one




Joules I have long ago realized Tech/a has a totally closed mind about a lot of aspects of charting and it is actually a futile exercise talking to him, it feels like one step away from talking to a TA 'denier'!



tech/a said:


> A 21 day M/A is 21 periods or a month--This is the only significance it has.
> Hardly anyone looks at M/A's let alone the specific one you have chosen (No
> matter who that who is).






tech/a said:


> All an M/A is is a line drawn from the closing price over X periods, nothing more and nothing less. It is a daily record of what HAPPENED to price
> it has absolutely no predictive qualities.


----------



## Joules MM1

default chart settings have "n" periods x price width auto correct or auto print for whatever you designate to view the price history in

it is clear (to me and i can only speak from my own observations) to that this provides no advantage to have a weekly bar chart with daily m/a xovers or vice versa

at best crossovers are a permission to do something, they offer a "off-the-hook" moment to relieve the trader from the responsibility of decisions based on the lack of experience (or knowledge) of the price action or lack of data or both

m/a's lag ..., they are not current to the pricing...end of convo on that one!

this does not mean that they are not a valuable tool but it needs complete discipline, or, if you like enslavement to the process....this serves to take your eyes way-from,  stops the trader-from, learning or receiving the signals from the most upto date data youre actually acting on - price

the simplest and best and highest probable use of a m/a crossover i have seen used is a 17/38 as the trigger when the prior swing level is taken out -  in other words when the previous swing high level is taken out and viewed as a breakout then the trade is taken on the xover and the stop placed at the start of that price action (this would be for a long after a rotation from a larger downswing)


----------



## tech/a

Most who attempt to use T/A as a trading tool are impressed with Oscillators.
They can look at a *past* chart and see how perfectly the oscillators performed
on the chart. Oscillators look great in hind site. Use them real time and youll
soon stop using them if your trading with your own hard earned.

Its pretty obvious that those who dont trade technically are in this phase purely
by how they post one classic of late is


Ann said:


> So much fun, I love this stuff.






Joules MM1 said:


> m/a's lag ..., they are not current to the pricing...end of convo on that one!




So when you see this---BELOW.



Ann said:


> I am currently re-writing my trading plan from a long term investor of buy and hold to a shorter term trader of buy in/close out at a certain point according to my plan (still being written).






Ann said:


> This is certainly one indicator I am planning to use for short term trading.




*You know!*
Why would you (ANN) divest from nearly 100% win performance ratio to Re writing your long term trading plan AND going to a shorter term trader?????

There is a long way from theory to practice.

So W
*DONT USE M/A's IN YOUR SHORT TERM SPECULATIVE STOCK TRADING.*


----------



## Ann

Tech/a, feel free not to use those silly little oscillators and MAs on your charts! 

I think I will stick with them, I have used them very successfully for the last 17 years. 



tech/a said:


> Why would you (ANN) divest from nearly 100% win performance ratio to Re writing your long term trading plan AND going to a shorter term trader?????




I am not re-writing my long term plan, I am writing an entirely new short term plan. I have the time to devote to the charts that I didn't have before. If I can't achieve a short term plan of at least 80% to 90% success rate then I will just chuck the idea in and go back to long term.


----------



## willoneau

aus_trader said:


> Pretty much sums up my way of thinking as well.
> 
> The 20% index drop would be used to exit any "still remaining" positions that haven't been closed out using stop losses etc. Keep only what you wish to hold longer term e.g. a defensive stock that usually goes up in bear markets or gold related investments that you wish to not sell out of.
> 
> Getting back is not a sudden buy back with a 20% rise. That would be a very late entry. Start slow as the market rises and buy a few positions and only add more positions once market makes higher prices to keep exposure to a minimum during a bear market temporary rally.



Check your charts you might find 20% drops as corrections then the market turns and continues .Using it to close might not be good strategy, but rather tightening stops or changing your trailing system might be better.


----------



## willoneau

I use a SMA as a filter only because i want the lag


----------



## Ann

willoneau said:


> I use a SMA as a filter only because i want the lag



I have only started to look really closely at them today but to me it looks like the SMA actually moves faster than the EMA. I was looking at the two of them on APT set on both weekly and daily.


----------



## tech/a

Google how each M/A is calculated 
It will go a long way to explaining how they compare on a chart.

Ann there is no evidence you have done 
very well using oscillators 

You refuse to post 5 charts to support your claim. 

So until you do I’ll put up a grand to 
Joe if ANYONE can show 10 trades using oscillators that Win 9 from 10 trades long term say over 6 mths 
90% as you stated Ann —- it was near 100% . In real time 

There is a challenge 
Go for it——anyone


----------



## willoneau

Ann said:


> I have only started to look really closely at them today but to me it looks like the SMA actually moves faster than the EMA. I was looking at the two of them on APT set on both weekly and daily.



the EMA reacts quicker because it is weighed more towards more recent bars


----------



## willoneau

aus_trader said:


> Excellent response to the question too Zaxon. I think moving averages and other indicators are warning signs and could be used to manage individual stock positions. The 20% drop on the index is the last line of defence for deciding drastic action such as portfolio liquidation. I am putting a plan together along these lines to avoid the pain experienced during the GFC. The lessons learnt from GFC should not be forgotten otherwise I will make the same mistakes again next time.



you can still get wipsaw with a filter but usually stops you making new trades .To use as a exit trigger would have same effect when market goes sideways, so should be indication of possible trend reversal only, imo


----------



## Ann

willoneau said:


> the EMA reacts quicker because it is weighed more towards more recent bars



Thanks Will, now the question I want to decide for myself, do I use the EMA and have to wait longer for the exit signal and a slightly lower exit price or do I use the SMA and get closed out more often on the stocks journey? Yes I know, only I can answer that but just thinking out loud!


----------



## willoneau

Ann why not use the EMA to choose the exit signal instead of being it?


----------



## willoneau

What one interprets as closed mind could in fact be actually the result of years of experience.
Using basic indicators will not achieve the desired outcome, but modifying it or using it in a original way might.


----------



## Ann

willoneau said:


> Ann why not use the EMA to choose the exit signal instead of being it?



Sorry Will, not sure what you mean here?


----------



## willoneau

Example would be say using a index filter to change from a SMA to a EMA exit signal


----------



## Ann

willoneau said:


> Example would be say using a index filter to change from a SMA to a EMA exit signal



Now that is yet another thought Will! Well done!


----------



## willoneau

When i stopped trying to predict what the market would do, I stopped losing money over the long term.


----------



## Ann

willoneau said:


> When i stopped trying to predict what the market would do, I stopped losing money over the long term.



Now here is a smart man folks!


----------



## aus_trader

willoneau said:


> the EMA reacts quicker because it is weighed more towards more recent bars



Yes I can confirm it. In fact Simple and Exponential are very close compared to Smoothed or Linear Weighted. I put various 50-period MA's on a chart to show their behaviour in relation to price.


----------



## willoneau

Notice how all those MA's would have closed your positions if used as an exit, then continued up.
The smoothed MA cross over the linear has potential looking at that chart but needs to be tested.
Not as an exit but maybe a guide to trend direction as a filter.


----------



## willoneau

Any thoughts on a filter for sideways markets?


----------



## willoneau

Zaxon said:


> I agree.  If you wait for a 105 day cross from the start of a bear market before you exit, you've missed the boat.



You will not know the start of the bear market until your already in it. But by then you should probably have no trades on and be in cash waiting.


----------



## Zaxon

Ann said:


> now the question I want to decide for myself, do I use the EMA and have to wait longer for the exit signal and a slightly lower exit price or do I use the SMA and get closed out more often on the stocks journey?



In my own research, I have found the choice between EMAs vs SMAs isn't definitive.  In one historic situation, the EMA would have been the right choice.  In another, the SMA would have been.  I don't think there there is a "right" answer as to which MA is better.

My effort is more spent on the number of days applied to the moving average.  For instance, choosing a 50 day SMA vs a 100 SMA will have a much bigger impact on your outcomes compared with choosing a 50 day SMA vs a 50 day EMA.


----------



## willoneau

I agree Zaxon,  that is why I wouldn't use any as an exit trigger.


----------



## Zaxon

willoneau said:


> Any thoughts on a filter for sideways markets?



Yes.  A sideways market could be defined by when the price trades within a bounded area of the moving average.  For instance +/- X% of the MA.


----------



## willoneau

Zaxon said:


> Yes.  A sideways market could be defined by when the price trades within a bounded area of the moving average.  For instance +/- X% of the MA.



So how would you turn that into a filter trigger?


----------



## willoneau

So say once price closes a N% above the MA you would start taking trades and it closes N% below you would stop?
Another thought, having a different N% above to below ?
Although if the market started to move up slowly it might not go above the N% so you wouldn't be opening positions.


----------



## willoneau

A break out above N-bars high could be a trigger to start using a MA again as a filter.


----------



## Zaxon

willoneau said:


> So how would you turn that into a filter trigger?



It would have to have a length of time parameter.  For instance, if a share price remained within +/-5% of a 200 day MA for 5 days, it tells you very little.  But if it remained range bound for a year, you'd probably say it was a sideways trending market.  So the number of days it's range bound around an MA confirms your conviction of the type of market it is.

The number of days range bound, the MA days, and the percentage would be left up to whether you're a shorter term trader vs long term investor.


----------



## Ann

Zaxon said:


> In my own research, I have found the choice between EMAs vs SMAs isn't definitive.  In one historic situation, the EMA would have been the right choice.  In another, the SMA would have been.  I don't think there there is a "right" answer as to which MA is better.
> 
> My effort is more spent on the number of days applied to the moving average.  For instance, choosing a 50 day SMA vs a 100 SMA will have a much bigger impact on your outcomes compared with choosing a 50 day SMA vs a 50 day EMA.




I agree with what you are saying Zaxon. I am drilling into these MAs much closer than I would have in the past. I have been a long term buy and hold in the past so my MAs were set for long term. The difference between EMA and SMA was not a major issue over the longer term. However wanting to trade on a shorter term basis as in months not years I am looking closer at some of the finer points of MAs and also more regular use of the oscillators and other indicators as my view of a chart will effectively be short term and close up, so various shorter term indicators will be of more use to me now. Not that I am going to ignore the long term view, I need to know if there are any ancient falling overheads bearing down on me.


----------



## willoneau

Ann said:


> I agree with what you are saying Zaxon. I am drilling into these MAs much closer than I would have in the past. I have been a long term buy and hold in the past so my MAs were set for long term. The difference between EMA and SMA was not a major issue over the longer term. However wanting to trade on a shorter term basis as in months not years I am looking closer at some of the finer points of MAs and also more regular use of the oscillators and other indicators as my view of a chart will effectively be short term and close up, so various shorter term indicators will be of more use to me now. Not that I am going to ignore the long term view, I need to know if there are any ancient falling overheads bearing down on me.



Would be interested to know the reason you are reducing your time frame?


----------



## willoneau

Zaxon said:


> It would have to have a length of time parameter.  For instance, if a share price remained within +/-5% of a 200 day MA for 5 days, it tells you very little.  But if it remained range bound for a year, you'd probably say it was a sideways trending market.  So the number of days it's range bound around an MA confirms your conviction of the type of market it is.
> 
> The number of days range bound, the MA days, and the percentage would be left up to whether you're a shorter term trader vs long term investor.



Using say a 30 or 50 bar high break out would be similar but i wasn't thinking of it as a time filter which is an interesting thought Zaxon.


----------



## Ann

willoneau said:


> Would be interested to know the reason you are reducing your time frame?




I recently retired and have more time to devote to it now.  I may end up useless at it and go back to long term, tail between my legs but I want to give it a decent go. I enjoy the whole process and made a promise to myself that one day I would spend much more time working the market.


----------



## willoneau

I don't use any fundamental analysis, so my question is how helpful will that be on the lower time frames if you use it ?


----------



## Ann

willoneau said:


> I don't use any fundamental analysis, so my question is how helpful will that be on the lower time frames if you use it ?



I am not sure if this was a question for me Will... I don't use fundamental analysis other than identifying what the business is and checking the overarching influence.  Is a company influenced by the price of a commodity, if so I need to know the price of that commodity and which direction is it traveling.  I try to work out what is likely to have an external influence over a company but it is very basic stuff and tends to always come back to a chart ultimately. Anytime I have tried to use FA it has ended in tears.


----------



## Zaxon

Ann said:


> However wanting to trade on a shorter term basis as in months not years



That's an interesting journey you're going on investing to trading.  I've recently split my portfolio in twain, with half being longer term, and the other half shorter.  However, unlike you're adventurous self, I use the same method for both, just a different time frame.


----------



## Zaxon

willoneau said:


> I don't use any fundamental analysis, so my question is how helpful will that be on the lower time frames if you use it ?



Fundamental analysis is really in the realm of the longer term investor. Shorter term works on sentiment/momentum. Traders can use fundamental "events", however.  An earnings report would be an example.


----------



## tech/a

You can certainly use T/A longer term

(1) Develop a longer term system——Here in my opinion Oscillators 
Have a place.
(2) Trade with a discretionary plan and use T/A for trade management 
(3) Use Fundamental analysis and use T/A for trade Management.


----------



## aus_trader

Very good discussion so far and I think the important outcome in terms of MA's is to possibly use it as a market filter applied to an index. For individual stocks it may also be used as a filter to stay with a trend but not a good tool for trade management in my opinion. The main reason MA's are not particularly good for trade management in terms of Stop Losses etc is that they behave poorly in range bound or sideways price movement. Therefore the MA based SL will be hit as soon as the price goes sideways or stalls for a while


----------



## Zaxon

aus_trader said:


> The main reason MA's are not particularly good for trade management in terms of Stop Losses etc is that they behave poorly in range bound or sideways price movement. Therefore the MA based SL will be hit as soon as the price goes sideways or stalls for a while



I'll offer an alternate view point.  One type of loss, is the loss of opportunity.  If share XYZ goes sideways in a bull market, it's dead money. There are better opportunities out there.  One advantage that an MA has over a stop-loss, is  the MA will "call out" stocks that are stagnating, allowing you to move on.  By contrast, a stop-loss will let you sit in a sideways moving stock forever.


----------



## willoneau

If the stock pay's dividends it isn't dead money, but i know we are talking specy stocks.


----------



## aus_trader

Yes agree with both of your views. If I wish to hold a dividend paying stock for the medium to longer term I don't want it exited just because it goes sideways for a while. On the other hand, Zaxon has a good point about the stagnation of your money holding on to stocks that don't pay dividends if they go sideways for months and years.


----------



## willoneau

Agreed, so a timing exit is then needed too?


----------



## Zaxon

aus_trader said:


> If I wish to hold a dividend paying stock for the medium to longer term I don't want it exited just because it goes sideways for a while. On the other hand, Zaxon has a good point about the stagnation of your money holding on to stocks that don't pay dividends if they go sideways for months and years.



All very true.  The "true" measure of return is Total Return, which is a measurement that combines price rise and dividends into one number.  But good luck being able to plot TR to run an MA, etc, against it.  To my knowledge, brokers' graphing software doesn't have that.


----------



## Trav.

If you look at Skates 'Dump it here' thread you will find reference to a stale stop that he uses, which I believe is based on ROC(period)... period can be optimised for daily / weekly systems


----------



## Zaxon

Trav. said:


> If you look at Skates 'Dump it here' thread you will find reference to a stale stop that he uses, which I believe is based on ROC(period)... period can be optimised for daily / weekly systems



If you're going to use stops for exits, a "stale" test makes sense.  

Really though, I think it's about using the right tool for the job.  A stop-loss is the perfect tool for capital preservation.  I'm only prepared to lose %x on the trade.  I'm setting a break even stop.  It could be argued that MAs (or some other indicator that has a time component) is intrinsically a better fit for a regular exit.  If so, there's no need for stale stops.


----------



## rnr

Trav. said:


> If you look at Skates 'Dump it here' thread you will find reference to a stale stop that he uses, which I believe is based on ROC(period)... period can be optimised for daily / weekly systems




@aus_trader
 As a follow up from Trav's post could you provide the ticker/ASX symbol for the stock which forms the basis of the chart in the post below so that a 50 period ROC indicator can be added for comparison purposes.
https://www.aussiestockforums.com/threads/speculative-stock-portfolio.33280/page-6#post-1030800

Cheers,
Rob


----------



## aus_trader

rnr said:


> @aus_trader
> As a follow up from Trav's post could you provide the ticker/ASX symbol for the stock which forms the basis of the chart in the post below so that a 50 period ROC indicator can be added for comparison purposes.
> https://www.aussiestockforums.com/threads/speculative-stock-portfolio.33280/page-6#post-1030800
> 
> Cheers,
> Rob



I have been reading Skate's thread, it is an encyclopedia of information and food for thought. Great work from Skate and all the contributors.

I haven't looked deeply into ROC (Rate Of Change) indicator but might have a look into it. Also the simple idea suggested earlier by Zaxon is also intriguing, to use a Moving Average with an offset. The idea is to allow sufficient wiggle room so that the MA doesn't come to touch the price during short periods of sideways/ranging markets.


----------



## rnr

rnr said:


> @aus_trader
> As a follow up from Trav's post could you provide the ticker/ASX symbol for the stock which forms the basis of the chart in the post below so that a 50 period ROC indicator can be added for comparison purposes.
> https://www.aussiestockforums.com/threads/speculative-stock-portfolio.33280/page-6#post-1030800
> Cheers,
> Rob




@aus_trader 
My apologies as the link above was incorrect as it was meant to link to your post #280 above.

I was hoping that you could provide the ticker/ASX symbol for the stock which forms the basis of the chart in the your post #280 above so that I could add a 50 period ROC indicator for comparison purposes.

Cheers,
Rob


----------



## aus_trader

rnr said:


> @aus_trader
> My apologies as the link above was incorrect as it was meant to link to your post #280 above.
> 
> I was hoping that you could provide the ticker/ASX symbol for the stock which forms the basis of the chart in the your post #280 above so that I could add a 50 period ROC indicator for comparison purposes.
> 
> Cheers,
> Rob



Hi Rob, That chart was just to illustrate the differences of Moving Averages. The MA's were not applied to an ASX stock. It was done on EURUSD currency on a Daily time frame. I will attach a full screen, that shows that.


----------



## rnr

@aus_trader 
My bad as I thought it was an ASX stock that you had used to draw the various MA's on.
Never mind...back to the drawing board as the MT4 platform I use doesn't have a ROC indicator to use as a comparison.
Cheers,
Rob


----------



## aus_trader

Some encouraging news out on one of the recently added spec's in this portfolio Orthocell Ltd(OCC). It is getting some validation in the regenerative medicine / cell repair area of biotechnology which has a lot of future potential in my opinion.


----------



## aus_trader

After a brief rally Duxton Water Ltd(D2O) has formed a Head and Shoulders pattern and therefore decided to sell out of it today.

Bought a speculative stock that I had a bit of success in the past Digitalx Ltd(DCC). The conditions are in place again for a possible rally in this stock, see below:




Open Portfolio:



Closed:


----------



## aus_trader

Seven West Media Ltd (SWM) has fallen below the support levels and was put on the chopping block.

Closed:


----------



## aus_trader

A possible bottoming out stock that has had glory days in the past is Mesoblast limited(MSB). Came across this stock when doing further due diligence and research on my other biotech in the same area of cutting edge regenerative medicine field Orthocell Ltd(OCC).

MSB has so many years of experience and clinical trials already completed in this field with Drugs in the latter stages of being approved with the FDA etc. So I think most of the possible bad news is factored into the share price which is at the low's historically speaking. Therefore the upside has much higher probability than further downside IMHO, so bought in.







Open Portfolio:


----------



## aus_trader

Not having any luck with the penny stocks these days. I had a very good run with Digitalx Ltd(DCC) in the past in this portfolio when BitCoin went onto around US$20,000 last time around. This time BitCoin was rallying hard and was just over US$11,000 when I bought DCC. due to the sharp reversal of BitCoin back towards US$9800 DCC has fallen sharply and was sold today.

Looking at dividend paying stocks, a world away from the penny stocks, I came across a stock that some of us might have purchased products from and not even aware of. The products are probably more familiar to the ladies/women who are more into cosmetics and wellbeing since the main distribution channels are through chemists such as Priceline Pharmacy and Chemist Warehouse. They offer a broad range of products, some shown below.



Company is McPherson's Ltd(MCP) and they've been around for a very long time, established 1860. Below is a summary.


The company valuation is cheap in my opinion and the dividend offered is very attractive. The other thing that attracted me to this stock as opposed to a lot of other retailers in the Aussie landscape is due to the push into online space by MCP. Unlike others MCP has been proactive getting their products online and sales are coming through nicely from online as well as through traditional means.

Open Portfolio:



Sold:


----------



## jjbinks

I like your thinking with DCC. What was your sell trigger?
Any thoughts as to why it hasn't got much of a boost with bitcoin rally compared to late 2017 early 2018


----------



## aus_trader

I think the trend is fairly established: punish the savers and reward the borrowers. That's what seems to be the message from the continuous rate cuts including the latest one which puts savers and retirees with interest income close to zero.

As a joke: At this rate as the trend continues, I'll be borrowing a few million once the interest rate goes below zero (-ve) so that the banks have to pay interest to borrowers in theory 

Anyway on a serious note, not taking any sides here as the conversation could get really lengthy, just accepting the reality and looking for ways to play it. So how do we play this ?

I think the intermediate threat to the housing decline is fixed (or at least patched up), so borrowers can continuously pile into the property market and this is the vibe reflected in the major bank shares. What else is needed for this insatiable thirst for Aussie housing ? Well, if you look at all the fringes of every major city, there will be new housing developments as far as the eye can see expanding into the countryside and farmland. All these houses require furniture, fittings, whitegoods (fridges/freezers, washing machines/dryers, dishwashers), microwave ovens, air conditioners/heaters as well as electronic goods such as TVs, PC's, Tablets etc. Even established houses are going with the latest trends so 'out with the old and in with the new' right?

I think a retailer that can sell 'everything under the one roof' could benefit here. Therefore I have picked up some Harvey Norman Holdings Limited(HVN) shares, which could continue to benefit. Price has already pushed higher from the $3 lows. Unlike with MCP, I don't think I need to provide any information about Gerry Harvey's famous Aussie retailer. Current Dividend Yield: 6.5%.

Added to portfolio:


----------



## aus_trader

jjbinks said:


> I like your thinking with DCC. What was your sell trigger?
> Any thoughts as to why it hasn't got much of a boost with bitcoin rally compared to late 2017 early 2018



It's a good question jjbinks. I think there must be a reason outside of my knowledge that has made the co-relation between the Bitcoin price and DCC price diverge this time. In fact I was surprised to see that DCC hadn't rallied with Bitcoin this time round. If Bitcoin continues to rally, it might be worth to watch DCC's price action...


----------



## aus_trader

Let go of Aveo Group (AOG) because I am scared as to what might happen once the indicative proposal is lapsed on the 22nd (see snippets of announcements):

'*Aveo received a confidential non-binding and conditional indicative proposal (the Indicative Proposal), from the preferred party*'

"The IBC has indicated that if the agreements leading to a Scheme of Arrangement cannot be agreed by *Monday, 22 July 2019*, the whole-of-company sale transaction process will be discontinued."




Added Clean TeQ Holdings Limited (CLQ), which did well in this portfolio in the past. Past results are not indicative of what may happen, so I could be buying too early and it might continue down in which case it will have to be sold at a loss. Just can't ignore the potential though. CLQ is getting the plan together to supply the Electric battery market with two of the key needed commodities, namely Nickel and Cobalt. These are also key components in hardening steel. CLQ's 'Sunrise' project is big and up there with the projects held by the major mining companies:




The DFS conducted last year has pretty good statistics, so looks like a pretty good stock to me:




Current Portfolio:


----------



## aus_trader

A company that has fallen out of favour in recent times is the IT services and virtual office space provider Servcorp Limited (SRV). Numbers look good and although the historical yield is 7.7% as stated below, the forward dividend yield is still nice, revised down to ~6% based on the 21c in 2019.




Company has no debt and around $70m in cash based on the last report.

The price chart seems to have found some historical support before moving a little higher recently, so bought some shares today.




Open Portfolio:


----------



## aus_trader

I was on the lookout for lenders to put on the portfolio, especially given the low interest rate environment. All the major banks seems to be rallying at the moment, but I wanted to look outside the box to find other opportunities.

FlexiGroup Limited (FXL) is a diversified lender that is quite active in the online space. Offers a dividend yield in the mid-4%'s. The price jumped today with a gap up and was added to the portfolio.


----------



## aus_trader

The two small cap stocks in the portfolio had a brief run up but has fallen back down, so was sold today and removed from the portfolio. So both 5G Networks Ltd (5GN) and Orthocell Ltd (OCC) are gone.

Sold:


----------



## aus_trader

Just a quick update, MCP has shot up on a JV announcement, so I sold that position and took profits. Will post details later...


----------



## willoneau

Hi aus_trader, do you use system , discretion, fundermentle or combinations?


----------



## aus_trader

willoneau said:


> Hi aus_trader, do you use system , discretion, fundermentle or combinations?



Hi Will, I use a combination of fundamental analysis (my own research into what a company does as well as it's stock matrices such as P/E ratios and dividend yields) as well as very basic level charting such as a simple moving average just to gauge the direction of a stock.

It's not a system that can be coded or put into a recipe i.e. Do 1.A 2.B 3.C etc so it's a bit different to what the other system guys do. By the way what the other traders/investors do I really respect and also something I always learn from. I can honestly say I have learnt some useful nuggets of information from fellow members like Peter2, Skate, Zaxon, yourself and others that are too many to mention that has helped my own methodology and thinking.


----------



## aus_trader

One stock sold and another bought into the portfolio which I will go into a little detail.

Stock sold was McPherson's Ltd (MCP) which went up a significant amount today as I mentioned in the quick post during the day. The Joint Venture is a good milestone for MCP and helps to branch it out to health & wellness area so it's possible price may continue up. I have to keep my greed in check and be thankful that a return that I wished for in a year or so has come in a space of 1 month from this stock.

Closed:



The stock bought was Mortgage Choice Limited (MOC). I believe another effect of the extreme low interest rate environment is for mortgage holders and investment property owners to shop around for much better low rate loans. This is a great environment to refinance loans and save a bundle so why would anyone not want to ? One of the annoying reasons could be to check individual banks and lenders to find the best rate and package not to mention the paperwork involved. This is where MOC is a leader in comparing many different products and find the ones that could narrow down your selection.




Please ignore the historical dividend yield, it will be revised down to a more reasonable value going forward. In the past that would have made my eyes pop but I try not to fall into the yield trap these days.

Open Portfolio:


----------



## willoneau

Are you leaning towards investing or trading?
how are you able to gauge your fundamental input into stock choice? eg ratios or news releases for example.


----------



## aus_trader

willoneau said:


> Are you leaning towards investing or trading?
> how are you able to gauge your fundamental input into stock choice? eg ratios or news releases for example.



This portfolio is a trading portfolio. I also have a longer term portfolio that hasn't been touched for a while because I like that to be a longer term hold type of portfolio. That's something that has evolved over time because it was not initiated that way. But from what I am learning that's the way it's heading. In other words:

Speculative Stock Portfolio : Trading in and out of stocks.

Medium/Longer Term Stock Portfolio : Long term holdings either for growth/safety(wealth preservation) or income.

There is no magic way of doing fundamental analysis for me. I know there are some software and stock filters around but I find doing the tedious work reading reports/news and looking at the company ratios helps me to understand the business better than a buy/sell signal based on some black box system or some star rating from a broker or an investment firm.


----------



## willoneau

How do you keep your greed in check?


----------



## aus_trader

willoneau said:


> How do you keep your greed in check?



Good question Will, one way to do it is to take profits off the table, at least with part of the position. My positions are smallish so sometimes no point splitting the position, but I have taken partial profits in the past on some of the positions that have had a good run.


----------



## willoneau

I looked at taking half my profits off the table at a certain % but came to realize that in order to skew the odds of being consistently profitable i needed to get those outlier trades. Not knowing which they were makes it impossible so i stopped. I don't mind having less than 50% win rate as long as my profit to loss ratio is high.
How is closing a portion of trade controlling greed? I can only see it fanning the ego of being right.

PS I don't like sudden moves up after a period of consistent gain, it is one of the few times i deviate from my system and usually close the position.



I didn't like the move and reached a popular price as well


----------



## aus_trader

willoneau said:


> I looked at taking half my profits off the table at a certain % but came to realize that in order to skew the odds of being consistently profitable i needed to get those outlier trades. Not knowing which they were makes it impossible so i stopped. I don't mind having less than 50% win rate as long as my profit to loss ratio is high.
> How is closing a portion of trade controlling greed? I can only see it fanning the ego of being right.
> 
> PS I don't like sudden moves up after a period of consistent gain, it is one of the few times i deviate from my system and usually close the position.
> 
> View attachment 96374
> 
> I didn't like the move and reached a popular price as well



Agree that it's not something that should be used all the time on all positions and I normally let a stock run up if it is going up merrily. But in the case of MCP it had a big up day with a gap up. So in these type of scenarios, when the market hands you a quick price spike, I think it's prudent to lock in or take some profits and say 'thank you'. I find when I say 'Thank You' as opposed to 'I Want More', greed disappears or reduces, hence my comment.


----------



## willoneau

aus_trader sit down and look hard at the things that make you deviate from your methodology and find ways to either remove them or control them. 
watch Mark Douglas on youtube, very insightful i have watched it a few times. Long but worth it in my opinion.


----------



## willoneau

I have two evils that i need to control - overtrading and to some degree tinkering with the system.
I recently started a daily trading system to allow me to indulge my overtrading as i want to be more involved in trading on a daily base at this time and hopefully increase my return. Time will tell and i constantly monitor it, still following my system to the letter and only putting on trades it generates.


----------



## aus_trader

willoneau said:


> aus_trader sit down and look hard at the things that make you deviate from your methodology and find ways to either remove them or control them.
> watch Mark Douglas on youtube, very insightful i have watched it a few times. Long but worth it in my opinion.



OK, I will check it out. I have heard about his discipline in the markets and seen some of his books.


----------



## aus_trader

willoneau said:


> I have two evils that i need to control - overtrading and to some degree tinkering with the system.
> I recently started a daily trading system to allow me to indulge my overtrading as i want to be more involved in trading on a daily base at this time and hopefully increase my return. Time will tell and i constantly monitor it, still following my system to the letter and only putting on trades it generates.



I suppose that could be a winning system if applied daily during a market going up as we are seeing. There is a risk of putting on too many positions at once if it generates daily signals and you take all/most of them though.


----------



## willoneau

I have two systems, a weekly 30 position system and a daily system position size not decided. They are similar so if i have a daily position open and my weekly system triggers that stock i move it from my daily portfolio over to my weekly.


----------



## aus_trader

Added a Real Estate Investment Trust (REIT) that owns a portfolio of Early Learning Centres across Aus and NZ. Managed by the well respected Charter Hall group, the entity is Charter Hall Education Trust (CQE). I think having a good management team is important, because it wouldn't be nice buying into a company only to see it go into liquidation down the track as experienced by "ABC Learning Centres" in the past.

Pays a quarterly distribution with a yield of around 4% and has been steadily growing the distribution amount over the years...




Open Portfolio:


----------



## aus_trader

Big down day overnight from the US markets followed by yesterday's falls, so I have been clearing out the bulk of the stocks in this portfolio. Only a few remain that have a bit of resilience in this environment such as Gold mining and Early learning Centre REIT. I guess kids have to go to Kindies in all economic environments so may be considered as a defensive stock IMO and so far haven't been savaged by the market, fingers crossed...

Closed:


----------



## Zaxon

aus_trader said:


> Big down day overnight from the US markets followed by yesterday's falls, so I have been clearing out the bulk of the stocks in this portfolio.



Have you gone to cash for now, or are you planning on going into gold etc?


Skate said:


> Only a few remain that have a bit of resilience in this environment such as Gold mining and Early learning Centre REIT.



Yes certainly some areas have been hit way worse than others.


----------



## aus_trader

Zaxon said:


> Have you gone to cash for now, or are you planning on going into gold etc?
> 
> Yes certainly some areas have been hit way worse than others.



Not in 100% cash but mostly in cash at the moment. I have a few Gold related investments in the Medium/Longer Term Stock Portfolio which are kept and will be added to. I haven't really put more assets in that portfolio as I am researching what I can put in there for the longer term and not worry about market ups and downs. So even the idea of putting some money into bonds is still on the agenda and I am taking time to find longer term holding investments. It'll take time to find the right mix of assets in different asset classes but that's a portfolio that I would like to keep as opposed to buying and selling that happens in this spec portfolio.


----------



## Zaxon

aus_trader said:


> Not in 100% cash but mostly in cash at the moment. I have a few Gold related investments in the Medium/Longer Term Stock Portfolio which are kept and will be added to.



Very good.  I'm about 12% in gold at the moment.


----------



## aus_trader

Zaxon said:


> Very good.  I'm about 12% in gold at the moment.



Very Good Zaxon. I need to increase my Gold exposure and add Bonds as I mentioned. These are likely to give diversification and protection during market crisis events which no body can predict the timing of, but as you mentioned in another post, once in a decade or once every 20 years should be expected.


----------



## aus_trader

The pull back in Gold miners has given me an opportunity to add to my portfolio. I think there is further upside in the Gold miners although they have had a good run. I form this opinion because the margins are really good in the current environment with higher spot Gold prices to sell into as well as lower AUD/USD which increases these margins further. Only been looking at the top to mid-tier miners since the amount of research to find gems in the hundreds of juniors is hard and even if I do, whether it'll reflect in the share value is anyone's guess. That's just based on past experience trying to pick Gold juniors.

Anyway, since I only have Perseus Mining Limited (PRU) in this portfolio, I looked for similar mid-cap Gold stocks on the ASX that are still showing an up-trend. Came across a Gold miner that has partly protected itself from potential Gold price declines by hedging it's sales of Gold produced with Gold futures. I thought that was clever to ensure good cashflow. Company chosen was Westgold Resources Ltd (WGX) which is in a nice uptrend and has pulled back recently with the rest of the Gold sector.

Open portfolio:


----------



## aus_trader

Bought some shares of Australia's lowest cost CHESS sponsored stock broker
Selfwealth Ltd (SWF). It's growing at a rapid rate, hence the reason I took notice:




Traditional brokerage firms have been lowering their rates recently to be more competitive in the online share trading space but haven't been able to match or beat the market leading stock brokerage of $9.50 per trade offered by Selfwealth. Client numbers have been growing rapidly for Selfwealth (see below) and I think will continue to do so as investors and traders look for lower cost, locally based, CHESS sponsored brokers where the shares bought will actually be registered in their name with a share certificate from ASX.




There are CFD providers and overseas Trading companies that entice with even lower prices but the product is not the same i.e. the shares may not be actually bought in their client's name, so it's a derived product of shares that is usually offered at low costs. So in the true sense of a stock broker, Selfwealth has the lowest cost brokerage for trading/investing in ASX listed companies.

Overall the markets are quite volatile, so I am cautious buying stocks. But I think this is an exciting time for the newcomer SWF to disrupt the stock broking market and earn further market share from Australian stock brokerage market. SWF also has a interesting line up of products which are imminent to come out soon:




Open Portfolio:



Also updated dividends for BFG and SRV.


----------



## aus_trader

With Oil stocks such as Beach Energy Ltd (BPT) and Santos Ltd (STO) at or near all-time-high's it looks like a good dip to buy some Woodside Petroleum Limited (WPL). So bought some shares today with a short-term trade in mind. Did a quick trade on this previously as well when it was trading at a higher price. Now the numbers look even better so I think it's worth a bite at these sold down levels.




Although I generally don't pay attention to broker and analyst recommendations, in this case everybody seems to agree it's undervalued.




Open Portfolio:


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## aus_trader

While Gold has been going up recently, it's little cousin Silver has been going up even faster. I have noticed it but I didn't want any exposure as the price was going straight up. Instead I waited for a decent pull back, which has just happened:




The problem is, unlike Gold stocks which are littered across the ASX, I could only find less than a handful of Silver stocks on the ASX. This makes them rare and any upside in Silver would be able to push prices of such stocks even faster as all the funds going into Silver plays have only a few penny stocks to go into.

I had a few Silver stocks in an old watchlist such as Cobar Consolidated, but it no longer exists. So if there are any good Silver stocks that people are aware of, let me know.

I bought a minimum quantity of Silver Mines Limited (SVL), which was hammered down 17% as it came out of a trading halt with regards to a capital raising. What is interesting is it was well supported by institutions including the resource investment group Sprott asset management which is known to take early strategic positions in resource companies with good potential. SVL's Bowden Silver project is probably one of the largest undeveloped Silver deposits as far as I can tell, with a large resource already proved from drilling.

Open Portfolio:


----------



## sptrawler

South 32 has one of the Worlds largest silver mines.

https://www.south32.net/our-business/australia/cannington


----------



## aus_trader

sptrawler said:


> South 32 has one of the Worlds largest silver mines.
> 
> https://www.south32.net/our-business/australia/cannington



Thanks for the info sptrawler, yes that is also one to keep an eye on if Ag (Silver) continues up. But S32 was spun out of BHP from memory and is more diversified with many commodities being mined. So the proportion of it's share price rise in relation to Silver price will not be as dramatic compared to a pure Silver play like SVL in my opinion.


----------



## sptrawler

aus_trader said:


> Thanks for the info sptrawler, yes that is also one to keep an eye on if Ag (Silver) continues up. But S32 was spun out of BHP from memory and is more diversified with many commodities being mined. So the proportion of it's share price rise in relation to Silver price will not be as dramatic compared to a pure Silver play like SVL in my opinion.



Troy resources TRY had a silver mine in Argentina, also Kingsgate KCN resources have a known silver prospect in South America, but I don't think it is being mined.
The only Australian miner, that I know is pulling it out of the ground is S32.


----------



## aus_trader

sptrawler said:


> Troy resources TRY had a silver mine in Argentina, also Kingsgate KCN resources have a known silver prospect in South America, but I don't think it is being mined.
> The only Australian miner, that I know is pulling it out of the ground is S32.



Good analysis


----------



## sptrawler

aus_trader said:


> Good analysis



Thanks, there is another but I'm keeping it up my sleeve, for next months tipping.


----------



## aus_trader

sptrawler said:


> Thanks, there is another but I'm keeping it up my sleeve, for next months tipping.



I've also come across two more spec stocks during the research when looking into Silver (Ag). I'm sure it's one of those 

If Ag starts trending up again let's tip for next month. As I said earlier these are very volatile plays, which is why I bought the minimum quantity of SVL, down another 12.5% today back to the price they raised the capital at.




However if conditions are right, i.e. Silver demand is back on, then they can go off quickly as well, perfect for 1-month competitions.


----------



## aus_trader

I sold one of the Gold plays today since it has fallen off recently. So PRU was sold this afternoon. Happy to buy back if the Gold price starts to tick up again.

I will show the recent sells only, just the closed positions for this year since the table is getting a bit too long to post.

Closed Positions:


----------



## scarlettsmith694

Life in the stock market can be complicated but the best part which attracts users is paycheck to paycheck sometimes it is no fun. Especially in the going era, investing can be a financial boon, despite the associated risks, for millennial who are known to be good savers.


----------



## aus_trader

I was looking through the upcoming dividends/distributions for the open portfolio stocks and I couldn't find the distribution that should be coming up for CQE that pays 4 distributions a year. According to my calculations it should be coming up this month but it's not listed in the upcoming dividends, while another Charter Hall REIT does have it listed:




I couldn't find any company announcements regarding whether it's on or off either. So while I am waiting to find the answer, the position has been sold. I don't want to find if is not on as the market will not like it and that may get reflected in the share price. Good REIT but most buy it for it's yield that is paid quarterly, so need to clarify what's going on.

Closed Positions:



In the meantime decided to buy an upcoming dividend play that's coming up for the 26th of this month. Mastermyne Group Limited (MYE) will pay a 4c dividend which will represent approx. 3.4% return on my purchase today and achievable within a month, which I cannot achieve if I parked that money in a bank for a full year. Besides the dividend the company is doing well and cashed up and paid off all of it's debt:




It has even made a recent acquisition that will complement MYE's service offering:



Open Portfolio:


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## aus_trader

I couldn't get through to Charter Hall Education Trust (CQE) via investor relations number as it went into answering machine, so I wrote to them regarding the distributions.

Let's see what they say, if they get back to me...


----------



## Zaxon

aus_trader said:


> I couldn't get through to Charter Hall Education Trust (CQE) via investor relations number as it went into answering machine, so I wrote to them regarding the distributions.




Here is the history of CQE's distributions.  They've been pretty consistent, so if history is any guide, expect it around 27/28 Sep 19. They've also distributed identical amounts four times in a row, then the amount changes for the next year.  So if that pattern continues, expect greater than 4 cents.


----------



## aus_trader

Zaxon said:


> Here is the history of CQE's distributions.  They've been pretty consistent, so if history is any guide, expect it around 27/28 Sep 19. They've also distributed identical amounts four times in a row, then the amount changes for the next year.  So if that pattern continues, expect greater than 4 cents.
> 
> View attachment 97469



Thanks Zaxon, it's the consistency of dividends/distributions that I based my investment decision on when I purchased. The upcoming dividends are usually declared in advance, for example with one of the other Charter Hall products called Charter Hall Long WALE REIT (CLW).

Anyway while waiting for them to respond to my query, I've been doing a bit more digging into the financials. It's a bit easier to do with a clear head since I can look at things kind of independently since my position is sold and my money is not involved since this is a real portfolio and not a hypothetical one.

I was looking at the same area that you were looking at and found that in the year that just passed, they have paid more in distributions than their earnings of 12c:




While they paid out 16c:




So I think it would be unwise to assume they will pay greater than last year's distribution. Something seems odd, will have to investigate and clarify before re-investing in it.


----------



## Zaxon

aus_trader said:


> Thanks Zaxon, it's the consistency of dividends/distributions that I based my investment decision on when I purchased.
> So I think it would be unwise to assume they will pay greater than last year's distribution.




That is interesting.  The dividend payout ratio was 133%, which as you say, isn't sustainable.  They did have a POR of 258% back in 2011, and yet the dividend still went up the next year.  Whether they can perform that trick twice...remains to be seen.


----------



## aus_trader

Zaxon said:


> That is interesting.  The dividend payout ratio was 133%, which as you say, isn't sustainable.  They did have a POR of 258% back in 2011, and yet the dividend still went up the next year.  Whether they can perform that trick twice...remains to be seen.
> 
> View attachment 97475



Companies especially in the growth phase which typically have a low payout ratio tend to have random spikes like that where POR can exceed 100%. The reason for the low POR is they keep a lot of the earnings for growth of the business. So when they don't spend all the retained earnings on growth or acquisitions over the years, they tend to dump a whole chunk onto the shareholders as a special dividend which can show a POR well into many 100% for that year.

But it's unusual for an income play such as this REIT which pays out most of it's earnings (typically 80-90%) to shareholders to have spikes like that. Let's see how much they'll pay in the next distribution cycle which may show up in the future since I can't find it in the upcoming dividends.


----------



## aus_trader

While Nickel price has been going up recently, my Nickel-Cobalt play CLQ has gone nowhere. It's too much in the spec end of the market to reflect the commodity prices I guess.

In the meantime the bigger Ni mining companies have rallied strongly such as WSA, IGO and MCR. I've been waiting for a while for any slow down in the price surge to join one of the major Ni players and MCR was chosen as the price eased back and some shares were bought for this portfolio.

I think from a long term view, the Ni price may be establishing an up trend that is coming up from a base:




Also MCR has been one of my proffered Ni plays on the ASX having met up with the management many years ago. They have a good establishment in the Kambalda region of Western Australia.

One thing that I was attracted to from the conversation was, when the MD at the time explained how MCR is able to turn mines off easily during Ni price weakness and be able to quickly return them to mining during favourable Ni price environments. This is quite different to a lot of the mining companies where they are unable to or reluctant to shut down mines during commodity downturns. And continue to produce the commodity which cannot even be sold for the cost incurred to dig it up, a recipe for losing money !

Open Portfolio:

​


----------



## sptrawler

From what I have read aus-trader, there is a bit of oversupply issue with cobalt, not so nickel.


----------



## aus_trader

sptrawler said:


> From what I have read aus-trader, there is a bit of oversupply issue with cobalt, not so nickel.



Oh I see, I need to look into that... cheers sptrawler.

and yes, Ni inventories are low from a historical standpoint and only been rising a bit recently from a very low base.


----------



## aus_trader

I looked into it sptrawler, and you are spot on. Ni will be in demand for batteries and Co not so  , according to article:



Full article at:
https://www.fastmarkets.com/article...tery-adoption-cobalt-demand-unlikely-to-benef


----------



## aus_trader

Charter Hall Education Trust (CQE) has declared the quarterly distribution to be paid at the end of the month on last Friday but I wanted to think over what to do over the weekend i.e. whether to get back into the stock. What I have concluded was that I have to keep watch of the payout ratio going forward, to make sure they can afford to pay these high dividend distributions on an on-going basis.

Given the distribution amount was slightly higher than what was being paid previously, I decided to buy back today. Couldn't ponder around for too long since the up-coming distribution will be missed if I wait till the end of the week, see key dates below:



Open Portfolio:



I've been trying to sell SRV since Friday but sellers kept jumping in front of my offer with lower prices, so got rid of it first thing at the start of the market open. A lot of the open profit was given back on this one as it fell fast and I couldn't sell in time. One positive is there was a 10c dividend that was paid during the holding period which made up for the slippage in getting out.

Closed Positions:


----------



## aus_trader

Although I am interested in having some Gold and perhaps some Silver exposure through mining stocks, I didn't like the Gold/Silver charts in the short-term.






So WGX has been sold to lock in profits and SVL sold to capitalise the loss.

Closed Portfolio:


----------



## peter2

This dip in the gold price gives us some time to find a gold producer who's share price goes up quickly with the POG. A gold stocks that shows strength relative to the rest of the sector. We can buy one at a lower price now, that is, if you think the POG will rise again soon. (I do).

edit: Most gold stocks were sold off today. Might wait until they start to go up first.


----------



## aus_trader

peter2 said:


> This dip in the gold price gives us some time to find a gold producer who's share price goes up quickly with the POG. A gold stocks that shows strength relative to the rest of the sector. We can buy one at a lower price now, that is, if you think the POG will rise again soon. (I do).
> 
> edit: Most gold stocks were sold off today. Might wait until they start to go up first.



Hi Peter, I also agree Gold price will start rising again after a sell-off. In fact I will be looking to add to longer term Gold holdings via ETF's etc in the longer term portfolio at lower prices.

For buying back Gold miners, I would also like to see a rising POG again after this pull back. Just not sure if this is a simple pull back and I've sold at the bottom , or if it is a more complex pull back with a few waves in play.


----------



## peter2

As we post the POG has risen $20 after the poor US manufacturing report (worse report since 2009). 
For someone with your longer term outlook, I'd suggest buying a partial position in the dip and then add when price goes up. You should be a great "buy the dipper".


----------



## aus_trader

peter2 said:


> As we post the POG has risen $20 after the poor US manufacturing report (worse report since 2009).
> For someone with your longer term outlook, I'd suggest buying a partial position in the dip and then add when price goes up. You should be a great "buy the dipper".



Looking into it at the moment. For the longer term investing these short-term price weakness is a buying opportunity.


----------



## aus_trader

It's been a while since buying CLQ and it hasn't performed according to plan and I have run out of patience holding the stock. So it has been sold, but will monitor it's stock price going forward since CLQ's Sunrise project is of interest to me.

Closed Positions:


----------



## aus_trader

Bought a stock that has been in this portfolio around a year ago.  It's the law firm that's fighting the good fight in my opinion. Where the little guy has almost no chance of going against the big bully corporations or the thugs of the society (even this forum owner Joe has had personal attacks if people have been reading about it in recent posts), this law firm will still put up a fight. It is Shine Corporate Ltd (SHJ), which still has Erin Brockovich as an ambassador who is promoting and endorsing what the company does. I am sure people know who she is, if not watch the movie "Erin Brockovich" starring Julia Roberts, the true story of how an ordinary person fought against the wrong-doings of large corporation for many years and finally won. Here is a quote from her taken from the Shine Corp announcements:




Anyway, the reason for buying is, I think this is one of the law firms that is having a very good balance sheet. And I have been looking at the few that are listed on the ASX and being tracking them over the years including those that went out of business and got de-listed such as ILH (or IAW before a name change prior to collapse). The other one that I mentioned when I bought Shine Corp last time was Slater & Gordon Limited (SGH), which was near collapse last time and has managed to stay affloat by doing capital raises followed by share consolidations followed by more capital raises etc. Recently did a massive capital raising from shareholders to plug holes and keep it afloat.

The reason I mentioned any of the other law firms was not to put a shine on Shine Corp, but to give reasons why I'd buy this one in preferrence of some of the other law firms and litigation funding firms that are on the ASX. To put simply, I would much rather buy a firm with a healthy balance sheet that is able to pay shareholders dividends than one that is raising funds from shareholders to repair it's balance sheet. Last time I bought it, I mentioned that I would not be putting emphasis on future dividends, but looking back it has been a very consistent little dividend player and recently been increasing the amounts as well:




Open Portfolio:


----------



## barney

aus_trader said:


> It's the law firm that's fighting the good fight in my opinion.




I hope that is the case aus-t  … and good luck with the trade

When the Law is used for good its one of the greatest "inventions" of the modern world. Its a pity so many law Companies are consumed by their obsession with billable hours and extracting money from all and sundry while most ethics are packed away in the boot and rarely see the light of day.   Lets hope this Co. is one of the odd ones out.


----------



## aus_trader

barney said:


> I hope that is the case aus-t  … and good luck with the trade
> 
> When the Law is used for good its one of the greatest "inventions" of the modern world. Its a pity so many law Companies are consumed by their obsession with billable hours and extracting money from all and sundry while most ethics are packed away in the boot and rarely see the light of day.   Lets hope this Co. is one of the odd ones out.




Thanks barney, it seems that way at the moment . Hope they continue to operate fairly and always try and support the vulnerable. They have a "no win no fee" to help those that cannot afford to put up a case by paying up-front. Also the logo suggests their aim is to "Right... the Wrong"


----------



## aus_trader

With Australia's recycling crisis still on the cards, I thought to further research into buying some garbo stock that possibly addressed these issues. After all the take-over consolidations in this sector recently, I see two main competitors in this space that is listed on the ASX, namely CWY and BIN. One company that is currently addressing quite a few of these recycling issues is Bingo Industries Ltd (BIN), see below:










It is also experiencing growth at the moment organically and via acquisitions. BIN acquiring "Dial-A-Dump" recently is a perfect example of this. Some of the growth numbers can be seen in the 2019 highlights below:




BIN is also the smaller (in terms of Market Cap) and cheaper (in terms of P/E) of the two players in the sector. I like CWY as well but decided to buy BIN since I think it could grow faster starting from a smaller size.

Open Portfolio:


----------



## barney

Is that grass growing all over the building in Pic 1 ?  
Must be a nightmare for the window cleaners


----------



## Zaxon

barney said:


> Is that grass growing all over the building in Pic 1 ?



That's what I thought!  It looks like an abandoned building that's let go to ruin.  Also, the other before and after pics don't even seem related to each other.  Here is a very close up of a pile of garbage.  Here is suddenly a massive road by the beach.  Riiiiight.


----------



## sptrawler

Recycling is a huge issue, but many have tried and failed, to make money out of it. No matter which way you look at it, if it had any value it wouldn't be in landfill, it is labour intensive to sort and when you have sorted it there is very little demand for it.
I keep looking at Cleanaway, but I just can't get excited, so that in itself probably means it is a screaming buy.
They are talking about building a high temp incinerator, to burn the stuff and make electricity, but that usually ends up in tears for one reason or another.
Just my opinion.


----------



## aus_trader

barney said:


> Is that grass growing all over the building in Pic 1 ?
> Must be a nightmare for the window cleaners



Yeah would be ha. I wouldn't want to be one of the abseiling window cleaners on a harness doing those windows. But I think they are called "vertical gardens" and we are likely to see more and more of those as the built up areas have no where to go but up.


----------



## aus_trader

Zaxon said:


> That's what I thought!  It looks like an abandoned building that's let go to ruin.  Also, the other before and after pics don't even seem related to each other.  Here is a very close up of a pile of garbage.  Here is suddenly a massive road by the beach.  Riiiiight.



Yeah I agree, looks a little over the top those pictures. I guess they are making an effort and not just doing it to be a green thumb or 'for the environment' as they are generating revenue from the recycled products.


----------



## aus_trader

sptrawler said:


> Recycling is a huge issue, but many have tried and failed, to make money out of it. No matter which way you look at it, if it had any value it wouldn't be in landfill, it is labour intensive to sort and when you have sorted it there is very little demand for it.
> I keep looking at Cleanaway, but I just can't get excited, so that in itself probably means it is a screaming buy.
> They are talking about building a high temp incinerator, to burn the stuff and make electricity, but that usually ends up in tears for one reason or another.
> Just my opinion.



Agree that it hasn't really been a highly lucrative business in the past. So what has happened more recently is Australia has become an exporter of all their recycling problems by shipping it all to China. However the reason I have become interested in stocks like CWY and BIN is because China has refused our recycling material imports, in other words they don't want our rubbish !

Since then many parts of our country have been throwing our recycling material in landfill, not sure if people are aware of this issue. So now there is a huge push from all levels of Government from National to State to Municipal/Council to address the problem and they are spending big to prevent as much of the recyclable waste from going to landfill. So if the big end of the waste management companies can be innovative to find solutions to recycle more of the waste, I think they are in a position to benefit.

High temp incinerator is a bad idea IMO, there will most likely to be toxic gases and CO2 etc that will be released to the atmosphere and it may be hard to get approval from EPA etc.


----------



## sptrawler

aus_trader said:


> So if the big end of the waste management companies can be innovative to find solutions to recycle more of the waste, I think they are in a position to benefit.



If they don't come up with a solution, who in the end get to keep the recycling, eventually the landfills will stop taking it?


----------



## Zaxon

sptrawler said:


> If they don't come up with a solution, who in the end get to keep the recycling, eventually the landfills will stop taking it?



I think the longer term solution is to create non-plastic polymers.  A polymer is a substance made from a long chain of similar units, and doesn't have to come from oil. "Plastics" that are made from non oil products, actually break down fairly easily.  I saw a documentary on a company in India, that makes disposable plates and cutlery out of corn starch converted to a polymer.  You eat your meal as per usual.  You can even eat the plate and cultery afterwards.  This could be done for shopping bags, and really most "plastics" that are used shorter term.  Keep oil based plastic for things that need to last.


----------



## aus_trader

Zaxon said:


> I think the longer term solution is to create non-plastic polymers.  A polymer is a substance made from a long chain of similar units, and doesn't have to come from oil. "Plastics" that are made from non oil products, actually break down fairly easily.  I saw a documentary on a company in India, that makes disposable plates and cutlery out of corn starch converted to a polymer.  You eat your meal as per usual.  You can even eat the plate and cultery afterwards.  This could be done for shopping bags, and really most "plastics" that are used shorter term.  Keep oil based plastic for things that need to last.



I will be supportive of innovative companies that can reduce the waste material from being produced in the first place, then recycling will be a breeze. Will be happy to invest in such companies as well.

Maybe we can adopt brown paper bags like in the US which are completely biodegradable compared to plastic bags.


----------



## aus_trader

sptrawler said:


> If they don't come up with a solution, who in the end get to keep the recycling, eventually the landfills will stop taking it?



True, capacity will eventually run out as well as recyclable materials take so much space and take centuries to decompose if ever. But that's probably another reason why the government bodies are keen to fix it before it becomes a very expensive waste problem on a national scale.


----------



## Zaxon

aus_trader said:


> Maybe we can adopt brown paper bags like in the US which are completely biodegradable compared to plastic bags.



For sure!  Americans have been asked "paper or plastic" for as long as I can remember.  Australian supermarkets can't use the excuse "paper bags are so hard to get in bulk", because apparently a whole country has access to them.

When I was growing up, we had paper bags in Australian supermarkets that could stand up on their own, and allow you to easily fill them.  Apparently, this ancient technology is now long lost.


----------



## aus_trader

Zaxon said:


> For sure!  Americans have been asked "paper or plastic" for as long as I can remember.  Australian supermarkets can't use the excuse "paper bags are so hard to get in bulk", because apparently a whole country has access to them.
> 
> When I was growing up, we had paper bags in Australian supermarkets that could stand up on their own, and allow you to easily fill them.  Apparently, this ancient technology is now long lost.




Funny thing is this ancient technology seems to be coming back, since Woolies are just about to trial them here:

https://www.news.com.au/finance/bus...s/news-story/03e34ba6095a1a4444128f92cd5f374f

So we might go American style when grocery shopping in the future and not feel odd about it.




Let's do it for the environment.


----------



## Zaxon

aus_trader said:


> Funny thing is this ancient technology seems to be coming back, since Woolies are just about to trial them here:



Oh, what a missed opportunity!  I'm not paying for single use bags.  I used to get them for free.  I'm quite happy with paper, but I'm not paying 20 cents per bag.  Americans don't pay for their paper bags, and nor did we 35 years ago.


----------



## aus_trader

Bought shares of mum and dad investor's favourite diversified miner BHP Group Ltd (BHP). It needs no introduction and given that it has pulled back a bit, it offers a good dividend yield that's been increasing rapidly in the last few years:




Open Portfolio:


----------



## Miner

aus_trader said:


> I will be supportive of innovative companies that can reduce the waste material from being produced in the first place, then recycling will be a breeze. Will be happy to invest in such companies as well.
> 
> Maybe we can adopt brown paper bags like in the US which are completely biodegradable compared to plastic bags.



Back in shiny youthful days, we used to have paper packets made of recycled newspapers. For heavy materials the shop keepers used to make them double bags. Slightly expensive items or fancy shops used to provide brown paper bags. There were many poor people survived by making paper bags from recycled papers and selling those bags to shops. No plastic bags. Yes, mobile phone and internet were not discovered either. Then came the plastic and plastic bags. Ironically USA even without signing the Paris treaty, has been using paper bags for long time.
In minesites, they are offering recyclable plastic bags. Unfortunately many of the miners are forgetting to recycle them and treating as one off use - just lazy and useless people - and 90% are doing the same.
Unless we are mentally conscious, and making effort in leading by examples to others and our children - we would ruin the planet more and more.


----------



## aus_trader

Miner said:


> Back in shiny youthful days, we used to have paper packets made of recycled newspapers. For heavy materials the shop keepers used to make them double bags. Slightly expensive items or fancy shops used to provide brown paper bags. There were many poor people survived by making paper bags from recycled papers and selling those bags to shops. No plastic bags. Yes, mobile phone and internet were not discovered either. Then came the plastic and plastic bags. Ironically USA even without signing the Paris treaty, has been using paper bags for long time.
> In minesites, they are offering recyclable plastic bags. Unfortunately many of the miners are forgetting to recycle them and treating as one off use - just lazy and useless people - and 90% are doing the same.
> Unless we are mentally conscious, and making effort in leading by examples to others and our children - we would ruin the planet more and more.



I am not a Greenie, but I do try to do the little things to help with the environment. The way I see it, if everyone does a little bit, it would make a world of difference.

So the little things that I tend to do is to sort out the rubbish and recycle materials at home to make sure they go into the appropriate bins. Compost some of the organic materials such as fruit and veg leftovers by feeding them to the worms in the garden, pick up the odd bit of rubbish especially if it's a plastic bag and dispose of it before it ends up in the drains and eventually in the sea and choke the life out of a 100 year old turtle or some other creature. And if and when I am at the beach in the summer, I always try to remember to pick up a few bits of plastics or other non-decaying bits of rubbish e.g. polystyrene or similar material back with me to dispose of at the beach if there are rubbish bins or take it with me in the car to dispose of later. I now take re-usable bags each time I go to the supermarket and it's not so bad, in fact I think it's more trendy than those ugly plastic bags. I think they had it right in the good old days with recycled paper or brown paper bags.


----------



## Miner

aus_trader said:


> I am not a Greenie, but I do try to do the little things to help with the environment. The way I see it, if everyone does a little bit, it would make a world of difference.
> 
> So the little things that I tend to do is to sort out the rubbish and recycle materials at home to make sure they go into the appropriate bins. Compost some of the organic materials such as fruit and veg leftovers by feeding them to the worms in the garden, pick up the odd bit of rubbish especially if it's a plastic bag and dispose of it before it ends up in the drains and eventually in the sea and choke the life out of a 100 year old turtle or some other creature. And if and when I am at the beach in the summer, I always try to remember to pick up a few bits of plastics or other non-decaying bits of rubbish e.g. polystyrene or similar material back with me to dispose of at the beach if there are rubbish bins or take it with me in the car to dispose of later. I now take re-usable bags each time I go to the supermarket and it's not so bad, in fact I think it's more trendy than those ugly plastic bags. I think they had it right in the good old days with recycled paper or brown paper bags.



Well said mate.
You know what - we do not need to be a so called greenie.
What you described as your little work, if repeated by all of us with the same intent, we do not have to live with the fear of global warming or any such things.
The challenge is talking is easier said than doing. But a little step makes our planet beautiful and more so, our second generation takes the baton. Good luck and hope one little step by all would be a great leap forrwad.


----------



## aus_trader

Selfwealth Ltd (SWF) has pulled back too sharply and was sold, locking in any profits.

Closed:


----------



## aus_trader

Mastermyne Group Limited (MYE) was sold as it was performing poorly.


----------



## aus_trader

Sold Charter Hall Social Infrastructure REIT (CQE). Got to collect one distribution payment during the holding period.


----------



## Userman

*IMF Sees Guyana Growing 86% in 2020*


https://www.bloomberg.com/news/arti...-economy-that-the-imf-sees-growing-86-in-2020


GYA.V / GYNAF

https://www.guyanagoldstrike.com


----------



## aus_trader

Beach Energy Ltd (BPT) added to portfolio. Still considered a growth stock by the company management as stated:




and in good shape having paid back record amounts of debt:




Looks interesting from a charting perspective as well, having gapped up from a period of consolidation like it has done previously:




Open portfolio:


----------



## aus_trader

Added the lighting specialist that is in an expansion growth spurt at the moment, namely Beacon Lighting Group Ltd (BLX). This is not the average lighting isle in the local hardware store, they specialise in all types of lighting from ultra-modern latest designs to the Classique vintage designs that are coming back in vouge as well as ceiling fans with advanced designs that retract the fan blades (when not in use) within a light fitting amongst other innovations:




Retail environment is tough in Australia, but these guys are battling it head on in two fronts: (1) with the use of social media platforms:



(2) international expansion spree:


Impressed with management's execution as well of late: jumping on opportunities and cutting losses early and promptly by exiting unprofitable ventures. Here is a case study where they have renovated and re-purposed for a profit. It's like renovating and re-structuring your rental property on a much bigger commercial scale, doubling the asset value. But in this case done radically quick, all within this year:



Stock offers a decent 3.7% steady dividend yield:



Open Portfolio:


----------



## aus_trader

An interesting history of Beach Energy Ltd (BPT) for those interested:


----------



## aus_trader

Have been researching on some of the likely global themes of the year ahead and I came across several sources that point to the likelihood of a supply crunch in Rare Earths (RE's) this year. On our local share market I think there is a some hidden evidence for this by the fact that the US military secured a supply agreement with the larger Rare Earth play Lynas Corporation Ltd (LYC) just a few days ago.

But I am interested in the smaller plays that could present larger % gains if it goes your way. So a couple of stocks has come to my attention that are well advanced in their projects in terms of getting them to production. First is a Rare Earth play that has already been in this portfolio Northern Minerals Ltd (NTU). Second play offers a bit more protection in my opinion as it is already producing cash flow with a Gold mining operation as well as currently Pilot testing it's Rare Earth project. So that was the company that was bought for this portfolio, namely Alkane Resources Limited (ALK).

Alkane's Tomingley Gold operation is already producing cash for the company. It also looks like Alkane has recently hit a big deposit with the drilling carried out recently:




The Dubbo Rare Earth project that is owned by Alkane is currently undergoing Pilot testing:




… and it's economics on a commercial scale are being worked out using the results:




Projects such as this would likely to be in high demand if there is supply disruptions due to US/China trade tensions as China is the world's largest and majority supplier of Rare Earths. Could the US military move be a defensive tactic for US to establish RE supplies outside of China ? Also if the prices rise in Rare Earth elements as a result of demand from ever advancing technology such as Electric Vehicles, the market could start re-rating these type of advanced RE projects.

Open Portfolio:


----------



## fergee

aus_trader very interesting thanks for that. Im punting GGG for the 2020 stock comp but will add ALK to my RE watch list as well.


----------



## aus_trader

fergee said:


> aus_trader very interesting thanks for that. Im punting GGG for the 2020 stock comp but will add ALK to my RE watch list as well.




I have also considered GGG in my research. Yes definitely a Rare Earth play with good numbers, perhaps not as confident in the go-ahead for me as it is in a location that is outside of Australia. Especially in Greenland, to my mind that will be harder to get approval in such a location with such lush greenery and such remoteness.

But I'll be watching Greenland Minerals Limited (GGG) progress as well, as I often underestimate what is capable and end up missing big opportunities.


----------



## aus_trader

With the weak retail environment and stock share price decreasing it was decided to let go of Beacon Lighting Group Ltd (BLX).

Closed:



A good thread worth reading about the current state of the retail environment is:
Retail Wreckage

I think I also based my decision to sell based on information on that thread


----------



## aus_trader

Could be selling at the bottom of the Oil cycle, but decided to let go of the two Oil/Gas stocks due to relentless slide in the price of crude:




Both Woodside Petroleum Limited (WPL) and Beach Energy Ltd (BPT) has been sold and closed in this portfolio.

Closed Oil/Gas Positions:


----------



## aus_trader

Few positions had to be sold in the portfolio due to the current market pull back we are experiencing...

Closed:


----------



## barney

aus_trader said:


> Few positions had to be sold in the portfolio due to the current market pull back we are experiencing...




At least there is a bit of 'green' in there Aus  ... more than I can say for my current situation


----------



## aus_trader

barney said:


> At least there is a bit of 'green' in there Aus  ... more than I can say for my current situation




Thanks barney. It was a 'sea of red' when I looked at the screen today, both current few holdings and watchlist stocks. So another stock in the holdings got washed off from the spec portfolio due to the deluge:



Closed:



Yes it's green, but a lot of (nearly half of) open profits have evaporated. The ALK position was up +60% just a few days ago.


----------



## Zaxon

aus_trader said:


> It was a 'sea of red' when I looked at the screen today, both current few holdings and watchlist stocks. So another stock in the holdings got washed off from the spec portfolio due to the deluge:



I vote that we roll back the last week of the stock market, and pretend it was all a bad dream.


----------



## frugal.rock

And wake up to a situation where a lot of stocks are back near on their price of a year ago... de ja Vue.
For what it's worth... I noticed stocks that don't generally get actively traded, instos algos etc, didn't get hit as hard.
There's lots of bargains out there ATM, but I suspect that may be on and off for a while. 
Nasdaq finished last night at 0.888 points up... volatile markets...

F.Rock


----------



## Newt

Zaxon said:


> I vote that we roll back the last week of the stock market, and pretend it was all a bad dream.




I'm sure I've got a backup here somewhere can roll the game back to.....!


----------



## aus_trader

Out of the two stocks kept in the portfolio, one has succumbed to the huge selloff today. Mincor Resources NL (MCR) was sold this afternoon for a small loss having given back a lot of open profits.




Only stock remaining is Bingo Industries Ltd (BIN) in this portfolio. I would think it's the type of stock that could weather a recession as garbage still needs to be collected and Australia's recycling problem is far from solved. But that's just my opinion, if the market has other ideas, I may have to pull the trigger to empty the last clinger in the portfolio.

Testing times, apart from the market sell down, did anyone notice the horrendous volatility in the Aussie Dollar today ?


----------



## aus_trader

Portfolio Liquidated, sold BIN as well. Can't seem to find even defensive stocks to weather this market !


----------



## Padowan

aus_trader said:


> Portfolio Liquidated, sold BIN as well. Can't seem to find even defensive stocks to weather this market !



S&P500 off 9% in last session, the most since 1987, I’m personally limited to long only investing, so sitting on the sidelines watching the show, as assets are liquidated


----------



## jjbinks

Padowan said:


> S&P500 off 9% in last session, the most since 1987, I’m personally limited to long only investing, so sitting on the sidelines watching the show, as assets are liquidated
> View attachment 101275



Reverse Etfs?


----------



## Padowan

Thanks jjbinks, looking and learning into inverse asx etf


BBOZ chart


----------



## frugal.rock

I have only 3 stocks in the portfolio.
Nearly half in cash.
Drum roll please,
BBUS
BBOZ
FAU
FAU... the long term speculative gold play that seems to be slowly behaving... I won't be selling until it pops, if it pops and hasn't had a full recovery from recent market dump.

BBOZ and BBUS are bear ETF's so expecting/ looking for downtrend.

The look on Trump's face says it all.
It looks like, "I can't save the economy from the depths, and might lose the election. Time to feather my own interests."

Further, have suspected that some of the US stimulus is reaching or at least influencing our markets. That may dry up... or increase ? as the US braces for earnings impacts over the next months.
Am keenly watching BNPL & diversified financial stocks as several climbed 200 ~300% up after recent lows. I missed that boat mostly but managed a partial 95% profit from PGL.

F.Rock


----------



## aus_trader

frugal.rock said:


> I have only 3 stocks in the portfolio.
> Nearly half in cash.
> Drum roll please,
> BBUS
> BBOZ
> FAU
> FAU... the long term speculative gold play that seems to be slowly behaving... I won't be selling until it pops, if it pops and hasn't had a full recovery from recent market dump.
> 
> BBOZ and BBUS are bear ETF's so expecting/ looking for downtrend.
> 
> The look on Trump's face says it all.
> It looks like, "I can't save the economy from the depths, and might lose the election. Time to feather my own interests."
> 
> Further, have suspected that some of the US stimulus is reaching or at least influencing our markets. That may dry up... or increase ? as the US braces for earnings impacts over the next months.
> Am keenly watching BNPL & diversified financial stocks as several climbed 200 ~300% up after recent lows. I missed that boat mostly but managed a partial 95% profit from PGL.
> 
> F.Rock



I have also missed the BNPL rally that came way too fast to my liking. When something is going up so fast I am usually on the fence as I don't like chasing rocketing stock prices.

Have been doing some stock research in the background and I may tip toe back into the market or play defensive if it looks like dropping back from the current counter rally.

I may even initiate BBUS and/or BEAR trades if it looks like another sell down gets underway. I prefer less leveraged ETFs if available because it's less painful to hold on to your position if the market has a bit of a volatility tantrum before it goes your way. By the way these ETFs are not for long term holding as they lose value over time, so they are good for getting in and out quickly if you want to bet that the market is going to fall in the short to mid term.

I hold QAU and MNRS to play the Gold upside. They are held and further added to as long term positions in my rarely updated Medium/_Longer_ _Term_ _Stock_ Portfolio. Don't have the nerve to play a spec explorer like FAU. I used to jump all over these type of plays in the past as they can pop if there is any new discoveries or resource upgrades. But now tend to go with the mid-tier and proven smaller caps.


----------



## frugal.rock

A speccie is a speccie, until it's not.
One day the elusive speccie will be held prior to the announcement....


Hats off to the thread supporters.

F.Rock


----------



## aus_trader

With some buying coming back to support the banking stocks, I decided to dip the toe back into the water. Only selective purchases will be made at this stage, because I don't think this is a "Lift all boats" type of rally that we are seeing. Some may not make it through just because the share prices look cheap and bouncing off the lows, for example Virgin Australia Holdings Ltd (VAH).

It's going to test stock picking ability to the max I reckon. So although there has been no purchases in this portfolio, a whole lot of company research was being done in the background.

So, even if there is stocks that have been unfairly hammered in decimated sectors like the restaurant industry or the Oil/Gas industry, I may still take a calculated risk as you'll see below...

Firstly a stock that I have been talking about a fair bit in other hot threads like:
Oil price discussion and analysis
_BPT_ - Beach Energy

This is a time that feels uncomfortable buying any Oil stock, given what's happening to the Oil price. But I think if proper research is done there is also opportunities to find Oil stocks that are quality businesses at bargain prices. The important things to look at in the business is can they still operate at marginal profit or break even levels at current prices of Oil and do they have sufficient cash reserves to get to the other side of this Oil glut. On a positive note, let's hope most of the Aussie Oil majors will survive through as their margins are better and production costs are lower than US shale Oil or Canadian Tar Sand Oil producers. 

Beach Energy Ltd (BPT) is a company that has been in and out of this portfolio previously and probably one of the best Oil/Gas stocks on the ASX to whether this Oil storm in my humble opinion and based on my analysis. It has fallen so hard along with other Oil/Gas plays that it can still be bought at around 50% of the price it was trading at only a couple of months ago in January. So that's what I did earlier today, given the compelling reasons as outlined below:



Looking back to last year and beyond, Beach made prudent decisions to retain more of the profits within the company and pay out less to the shareholders via dividends. It's putting the company in an enviable position to it's competitors, see comments by MD:




Is anyone buying restaurant stocks in this environment ? Well, that's got to be a brave decision, given the restrictions right ? Even if restrictions are lifted, analysts are predicting a slow grinding path to recovery for the whole sector as consumer confidence will take a long time to return.

What about if the restaurant is more busy than pre COVID days ? If the lines of people queuing up is well into the carpark and if the drive through is so long that it's blocking the traffic on the main road next to the joint ? Does that type of thing exist ? Well, that requires a drive up to the local KFC restaurant around lunchtime or dinnertime.

Perhaps it is the lack of competition as a lot of other restaurants are closed. Perhaps it's their advertising about new safety measures:




But customers just keep coming. The numbers are also good from the last report going into this health crisis.



I'll be scared to look at the numbers that'll be coming out of other companies in this sector which will show the COVID-19 impact. However, I am looking forward to the numbers for this restaurant chain to see the sales numbers in the current environment.

So, here is the "finger licking good" stock that I also bought today:


Collins Foods Ltd (CKF). Bulk of their assets are KFC restaurants. There is 1 Taco Bell and a few Sizzler restaurants also in the portfolio.

Both companies pay dividends as well, albeit small. Hence good capital management for surviving the leaner times.

Open Portfolio:


----------



## peter2

You made such an interesting case for BPT that I read through the latest report.   Naturally I didn't understand the financials but I did like the bit you underlined. If BPT is so financially sound that it can hang on through this oil crisis then their longer term outlook must be favourable. 

How can we buy BPT and have the similar ability to hang tough through this economic crisis? I'll keep an eye on BPT and buy a 1/2 sized position if the price dips lower than the recent low. This may happen at the next monthly oil futures expiry. We'll see. Otherwise I'll wait for my normal BO-HR trigger. 

Are you prepared to hold on to your current company convictions? (Until proven incorrect of course).


----------



## aus_trader

peter2 said:


> You made such an interesting case for BPT that I read through the latest report.   Naturally I didn't understand the financials but I did like the bit you underlined. If BPT is so financially sound that it can hang on through this oil crisis then their longer term outlook must be favourable.
> 
> How can we buy BPT and have the similar ability to hang tough through this economic crisis? I'll keep an eye on BPT and buy a 1/2 sized position if the price dips lower than the recent low. This may happen at the next monthly oil futures expiry. We'll see. Otherwise I'll wait for my normal BO-HR trigger.
> 
> Are you prepared to hold on to your current company convictions? (Until proven incorrect of course).



Good point Peter and I had to think about it a bit before answering.

Rather than being too biased to this particular stock to hold long term, I thought what am I doing in this portfolio ? Then the answer became clearer.

This is a trading portfolio and as such any position that is not holding ground or sinking lower and lower will be let go at some point and that will be applied to BPT as well.

However hypothetically if I had to pick 1 Oil/Gas stock in the entire ASX where I wouldn't be able to trade it during this Oil crisis, I'll go with BPT as I've already done the research and comparisons.


----------



## aus_trader

Added Bingo Industries Ltd(BIN) to the portfolio today. It is providing essential services of picking up the household bins for the councils and dumpster bins for the businesses and various industries that are still operating.

There will be some impact on the bottom line as not all the businesses are operating in full capacity therefore making the regular dumpster pickups less regular. I am aware of this and have taken that into consideration before making the purchase. For example lets take a school that has it's dumpster bins (general waste & recycling) picked up once a week. In the current environment with only one or two classrooms running at best in most states those dumpster pickups may be reduced to once a fortnight or once a month.

There may be some improvement to the bottom line with lower fuel prices though.

There are industries that are still in operation that would require Bingo services like in construction. Whether that is the building of a road or a building, rubble and waste still needs to be taken off sites.




Not sure how busy the housing construction environment is, perhaps tech/a has a better idea as he operates a small business that serves the construction industry. If it's busy, then Bingo is going to get smaller skip bin pickups as well.




Furthermore there is still work to be done to address Australia's recycling issue where Bingo can make a big impact.

Also there has been an update on Collins Foods Ltd (CKF), which gave the stock a boost today:




Since the petrol is so cheap, I also did some driving around the suburbs surrounding me and there is plenty of customers in each of the KFC joints I visited with the $4.95 lunch deals flying out the door...




Open Portfolio:


----------



## aus_trader

I've been interacting with fellow ASF members in some of the Gold price threads and have been waiting for a good price point to get involved with some local Gold stocks.

ducati916 and rederob have alerted us to the possible wedge/triangle formation in Gold price over the last number of days and finally breaking out to the upside from the close of US session overnight. Below is a couple of charts that I got to see, once again thanks goes to the ASF members mentioned:



this wedge has now broken to the upside.




I bought two stocks today and both are local Aussie stocks. There are many Gold stocks that have their projects in other parts of the world that come with Geopolitical risks like Governments that confiscate the Gold projects once a company has spent millions of $ exploring, developing and finally getting to the stage of mining the stuff. This is not some ancient argument, its happened as recently as last month for a PNG project as alerted by one of the ASF members on another thread 

Australia and Canada has been recognised as the prime real estate grounds for mining investment because companies are able to keep their projects and reap the benefits finally when they get to mining the commodity.

Both stocks have top Australian projects and the share prices hasn't yet taken off to the moon ! First stock is Alkane Resources Limited (ALK) and has been extensively covered previously on this thread as it is on to one of the latest large Gold deposit discoveries at Boda. Second stock is Gold Road Resources Ltd (GOR) and it is about to break up into all time high's. If it does, much higher prices may be expected.

Open Portfolio:


----------



## Rosscoe62

aus_trader said:


> I've been interacting with fellow ASF members in some of the Gold price threads and have been waiting for a good price point to get involved with some local Gold stocks.
> 
> ducati916 and rederob have alerted us to the possible wedge/triangle formation in Gold price over the last number of days and finally breaking out to the upside from the close of US session overnight. Below is a couple of charts that I got to see, once again thanks goes to the ASF members mentioned:
> 
> View attachment 103490
> 
> this wedge has now broken to the upside.
> 
> View attachment 103491
> 
> 
> I bought two stocks today and both are local Aussie stocks. There are many Gold stocks that have their projects in other parts of the world that come with Geopolitical risks like Governments that confiscate the Gold projects once a company has spent millions of $ exploring, developing and finally getting to the stage of mining the stuff. This is not some ancient argument, its happened as recently as last month for a PNG project as alerted by one of the ASF members on another thread
> 
> Australia and Canada has been recognised as the prime real estate grounds for mining investment because companies are able to keep their projects and reap the benefits finally when they get to mining the commodity.
> 
> Both stocks have top Australian projects and the share prices hasn't yet taken off to the moon ! First stock is Alkane Resources Limited (ALK) and has been extensively covered previously on this thread as it is on to one of the latest large Gold deposit discoveries at Boda. Second stock is Gold Road Resources Ltd (GOR) and it is about to break up into all time high's. If it does, much higher prices may be expected.
> 
> Open Portfolio:
> View attachment 103493




If you really want to take a few speculative gold stocks try these. A rather large gap to fill with CHN

https://www.barchart.com/stocks/quo...&sym=CHN.AX&grid=1&height=500&studyheight=100

And AUT ....

https://www.barchart.com/stocks/quo...&sym=AUT.AX&grid=1&height=500&studyheight=100

Highly speculative gold carriers but running as quickly as the wind can blow at full pelt ...


----------



## aus_trader

Rosscoe62 said:


> If you really want to take a few speculative gold stocks try these. A rather large gap to fill with CHN
> 
> https://www.barchart.com/stocks/quo...&sym=CHN.AX&grid=1&height=500&studyheight=100
> 
> And AUT ....
> 
> https://www.barchart.com/stocks/quo...&sym=AUT.AX&grid=1&height=500&studyheight=100
> 
> Highly speculative gold carriers but running as quickly as the wind can blow at full pelt ...



Thanks for the info Rosscoe62. I was aware of Chalice and it's having a great run at the moment. Will research AUT and will put into my watchlist of Gold stocks if the prospects makes my eyes pop.


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## aus_trader

Exciting development happening for one of the stocks in the portfolio as announced today. Alkane Resources Limited (ALK) is to become two companies: One that will hold Rare Earth assets and another to hold Gold assets. Both will be listed and existing shareholders to be given shares in both companies.

The new de-merged company is to be called Australian Strategic Materials Ltd (ASM) that will hold the Dubbo project with all of current Alkane's Rare Earth assets that is currently in development. Below are a couple of slides from the announcement:







Open Portfolio:


----------



## aus_trader

Every now and then there has been enquiries from fellow members as to how the investment philosophy or trading method is formulated in this portfolio. The answers may have been disappointing because the expectation was a precise step by step method or that of a recipe. If the request was for a chocolate cake, I would have been able to readily provide a recipe, but I don't actually have one for the spec portfolio. Not holding anything back because I love sharing information and this portfolio thread would be like looking inside my head as to how I come up with suitable candidates.

So I will try to further explain the various methods of getting initial brainstorming ideas, before diving deep into research and number crunching to find stocks. I either look at macro themes (economic/geological/political) and work my way down to see if there is a stock specific way to action that theme (top-down approach) or I look at specific commodities like Oil and Gold prices and research down into individual stocks exposed to that commodity or sometimes it's interesting news about a specific stock that gets me digging for answers and looking outwards at the bigger picture (bottom-up type of approach).

So today's stock idea came from a macro theme and I will walk through the process of bringing the narrative down to an actionable stock pick... which has been added to the portfolio.

Australia is in the middle of a geopolitical crossfire. We are being pulled by the East and the West that it's nearly impossible to sit on the fence and pretend "she'll be right mate !". Not to mention what's at stake in terms of our economy and our way of life and the path we set for our future.

The virus may have provided the initial trigger, but I don't think there has been a more defining moment in our lifetime than what we are facing right now...

From the East we are facing the toughest challenges from our biggest trading partner who can use a lot of political muscle and some nasty tactics to test how far we are willing to bend. They are crushing our Barley farmers with new tariffs and banning some beef exports from Australia:



Perhaps the threats and boycotts are also helped by the Australian Chinese Ambassador who has been making damaging comments to the Australia-China relationship: (see highlighted in box below)




I thought an Ambassador is a person who builds relationships between the nations and helps to repair any tensions ? 

Because the tensions are rising...




From the West we are influenced to push ahead with the origin of the virus enquiry and support Trump. Also forced to make a stance with them on other issues or be cut off !




Where things will lead and what impact/s it'll have on the lucky country is yet to be seen. However the trade war is unlikely to go away without further damage...

In such a geopolitical environment we could get hurt leaning towards either direction as we are stuck between the most powerful super-powers of the modern world. I think PM Morrison is diverting the attention away from the heat towards supporting the local economy and job creation:




Local businesses are likely to get promoted as we are encouraged to buy Australian. There is not a lot of "Australian Made" but there are lots of "Australian Produce" that we consume and export. In fact Australian farming is the big diversifier away from mining. I am not able to partner up with Australia's wealthiest person Gina Rinehart who has lately invested heavily into farmland and agriculture diversifying from her Iron Ore riches. So I thought to research up any publicly listed companies that I could buy into...

The research has taken me on many journeys from A2 milk producers, Select Harvesters, Grain Corporations to Cheese makers. This is where I spend most of the time on doing company research once the broader theme has been narrowed down to specific asx listed companies.

In the end, I decided to buy a fresh produce grower that brings the freshest Bananas, Avocados, Berries and various vegetables straight to our local stores. Costa Group Holdings Ltd (CGC) is the largest fresh produce grower in the country. Here are the details:




Severe draughts and a few mushroom growing issues has pushed the share price down to sub $3 levels after reaching an all-time-high of $9 in mid-2018. But the company is putting the efforts in now and looking ahead to better results in a year or two:



So if the share market is forward looking, my speculation is that prices may start to reflect what's in store down the track sooner. Still don't know if there is any other surprises in the store. But I think the worst could be behind this historic Australian company who's beginnings go back to the start of the century around 1903.

I know there is very little impact from the virus threat to the company's products as most of the fresh produce goes straight to the major supermarkets and green grocers around the country and people still need to eat, even if they cut down on luxury goods due to loss of jobs or reduced income due to cut hours etc. I might even argue their product (fresh produce) may be in more demand than ever as people try and eat healthy to build up their immune defences against the threat of catching the virus.

I specifically went to a lot of extra detail on this post to answer some of the questions over the years, hope it helps to explain the process, time, effort and thinking going into stock picks.

Open Portfolio:


----------



## qldfrog

aus_trader said:


> Every now and then there has been enquiries from fellow members as to how the investment philosophy or trading method is formulated in this portfolio. The answers may have been disappointing because the expectation was a precise step by step method or that of a recipe. If the request was for a chocolate cake, I would have been able to readily provide a recipe, but I don't actually have one for the spec portfolio. Not holding anything back because I love sharing information and this portfolio thread would be like looking inside my head as to how I come up with suitable candidates.
> 
> So I will try to further explain the various methods of getting initial brainstorming ideas, before diving deep into research and number crunching to find stocks. I either look at macro themes (economic/geological/political) and work my way down to see if there is a stock specific way to action that theme (top-down approach) or I look at specific commodities like Oil and Gold prices and research down into individual stocks exposed to that commodity or sometimes it's interesting news about a specific stock that gets me digging for answers and looking outwards at the bigger picture (bottom-up type of approach).
> 
> So today's stock idea came from a macro theme and I will walk through the process of bringing the narrative down to an actionable stock pick... which has been added to the portfolio.
> 
> Australia is in the middle of a geopolitical crossfire. We are being pulled by the East and the West that it's nearly impossible to sit on the fence and pretend "she'll be right mate !". Not to mention what's at stake in terms of our economy and our way of life and the path we set for our future.
> 
> The virus may have provided the initial trigger, but I don't think there has been a more defining moment in our lifetime than what we are facing right now...
> 
> From the East we are facing the toughest challenges from our biggest trading partner who can use a lot of political muscle and some nasty tactics to test how far we are willing to bend. They are crushing our Barley farmers with new tariffs and banning some beef exports from Australia:
> View attachment 103767
> 
> 
> Perhaps the threats and boycotts are also helped by the Australian Chinese Ambassador who has been making damaging comments to the Australia-China relationship: (see highlighted in box below)
> 
> View attachment 103768
> 
> 
> I thought an Ambassador is a person who builds relationships between the nations and helps to repair any tensions ?
> 
> Because the tensions are rising...
> 
> View attachment 103770
> 
> 
> From the West we are influenced to push ahead with the origin of the virus enquiry and support Trump. Also forced to make a stance with them on other issues or be cut off !
> 
> View attachment 103769
> 
> 
> Where things will lead and what impact/s it'll have on the lucky country is yet to be seen. However the trade war is unlikely to go away without further damage...
> 
> In such a geopolitical environment we could get hurt leaning towards either direction as we are stuck between the most powerful super-powers of the modern world. I think PM Morrison is diverting the attention away from the heat towards supporting the local economy and job creation:
> 
> View attachment 103771
> 
> 
> Local businesses are likely to get promoted as we are encouraged to buy Australian. There is not a lot of "Australian Made" but there are lots of "Australian Produce" that we consume and export. In fact Australian farming is the big diversifier away from mining. I am not able to partner up with Australia's wealthiest person Gina Rinehart who has lately invested heavily into farmland and agriculture diversifying from her Iron Ore riches. So I thought to research up any publicly listed companies that I could buy into...
> 
> The research has taken me on many journeys from A2 milk producers, Select Harvesters, Grain Corporations to Cheese makers. This is where I spend most of the time on doing company research once the broader theme has been narrowed down to specific asx listed companies.
> 
> In the end, I decided to buy a fresh produce grower that brings the freshest Bananas, Avocados, Berries and various vegetables straight to our local stores. Costa Group Holdings Ltd (CGC) is the largest fresh produce grower in the country. Here are the details:
> 
> View attachment 103772
> 
> 
> Severe draughts and a few mushroom growing issues has pushed the share price down to sub $3 levels after reaching an all-time-high of $9 in mid-2018. But the company is putting the efforts in now and looking ahead to better results in a year or two:
> View attachment 103773
> 
> 
> So if the share market is forward looking, my speculation is that prices may start to reflect what's in store down the track sooner. Still don't know if there is any other surprises in the store. But I think the worst could be behind this historic Australian company who's beginnings go back to the start of the century around 1903.
> 
> I know there is very little impact from the virus threat to the company's products as most of the fresh produce goes straight to the major supermarkets and green grocers around the country and people still need to eat, even if they cut down on luxury goods due to loss of jobs or reduced income due to cut hours etc. I might even argue their product (fresh produce) may be in more demand than ever as people try and eat healthy to build up their immune defences against the threat of catching the virus.
> 
> I specifically went to a lot of extra detail on this post to answer some of the questions over the years, hope it helps to explain the process, time, effort and thinking going into stock picks.
> 
> Open Portfolio:
> View attachment 103774



FWIW: Costa was bought yesterday on one of my system, you are not alone being positive!!!


----------



## aus_trader

qldfrog said:


> FWIW: Costa was bought yesterday on one of my system, you are not alone being positive!!!



Great to hear that our different systems and methods converge to the same stocks.


----------



## aus_trader

Although I haven't changed my cautious view, restrictions are slowly starting to ease and schools have re-started to near normal capacity. Along with a whole host of other industries that are also coming out of lock down, it could be good for service providers like waste pickup companies, so BIN could be considered much less risky than at the time of buying in this portfolio. Time will tell...

ASX had a big day and I decided to add two more companies to the portfolio.

With the rebound in our market, I've been watching the leaders driving it as well as hot sectors. Even drilling down to certain sub-sectors. So what's the hottest cluster of stocks that have led the bounce with quite a few pushing into all-time-high's surpassing pre-Covid peaks ?

It's a sub-sector of the Financials which is broadly known as 'Fintech' or Financial Tech companies. A quick glance at APT or PPH charts will show how hard and fast they have run and led this sector. I am scared to touch these as I have a history of "momentum curse". In other words these stocks will continue higher till I buy and then go the other way. I know quite a few fellow forum members are all over these type of fast moving stocks and I do not wish to cause their gains to evaporate .  So I'll stick to what I am familiar with and that is to look for stocks that haven't run as hot yet.

If we take the real-estate analogy to buy the 'worst house in the best street' I guess I would still like to buy a stock that is in the red hot Fintech sector that hasn't caught much attention yet and is not valued at multi-billion dollars. So after a dozen or so comparisons, I decided to purchase some shares in the Fintech junior QuickFee Ltd (QFE).

With schools returning to somewhat normal attendance levels and businesses re-opening, there is a whole host of other feeder industries lined up to benefit. One that comes to mind is the childcare industry. An old favourite of the 'spec portfolio' Charter Hall Social Infrastructure REIT (CQE) is trading far below the price it was purchased at last time, although it was called a slightly different name but still had the same stock code.

I didn't buy up to this point as there was still risks of child care centre closures or low kid numbers that may affect the company. But with the current easing I think the risk/reward is much more favourable and given they haven't cut the dividend during the lock-down it's likely to be kept going forward, which is highly attractive at current share price and in an almost no yield interest rate world.




Open portfolio:


----------



## qldfrog

aus_trader said:


> Although I haven't changed my cautious view, restrictions are slowly starting to ease and schools have re-started to near normal capacity. Along with a whole host of other industries that are also coming out of lock down, it could be good for service providers like waste pickup companies, so BIN could be considered much less risky than at the time of buying in this portfolio. Time will tell...
> 
> ASX had a big day and I decided to add two more companies to the portfolio.
> 
> With the rebound in our market, I've been watching the leaders driving it as well as hot sectors. Even drilling down to certain sub-sectors. So what's the hottest cluster of stocks that have led the bounce with quite a few pushing into all-time-high's surpassing pre-Covid peaks ?
> 
> It's a sub-sector of the Financials which is broadly known as 'Fintech' or Financial Tech companies. A quick glance at APT or PPH charts will show how hard and fast they have run and led this sector. I am scared to touch these as I have a history of "momentum curse". In other words these stocks will continue higher till I buy and then go the other way. I know quite a few fellow forum members are all over these type of fast moving stocks and I do not wish to cause their gains to evaporate .  So I'll stick to what I am familiar with and that is to look for stocks that haven't run as hot yet.
> 
> If we take the real-estate analogy to buy the 'worst house in the best street' I guess I would still like to buy a stock that is in the red hot Fintech sector that hasn't caught much attention yet and is not valued at multi-billion dollars. So after a dozen or so comparisons, I decided to purchase some shares in the Fintech junior QuickFee Ltd (QFE).
> 
> With schools returning to somewhat normal attendance levels and businesses re-opening, there is a whole host of other feeder industries lined up to benefit. One that comes to mind is the childcare industry. An old favourite of the 'spec portfolio' Charter Hall Social Infrastructure REIT (CQE) is trading far below the price it was purchased at last time, although it was called a slightly different name but still had the same stock code.
> 
> I didn't buy up to this point as there was still risks of child care centre closures or low kid numbers that may affect the company. But with the current easing I think the risk/reward is much more favourable and given they haven't cut the dividend during the lock-down it's likely to be kept going forward, which is highly attractive at current share price and in an almost no yield interest rate world.
> 
> View attachment 103800
> 
> 
> Open portfolio:
> View attachment 103801



I try to restrain from discretionary trading/investment but for the reit discussed, are we not buying a dual business: one real estate side of brick and mortar and one pure childcare and associated side.
If either goes down aka RE component, the SP should go down
I guess you are betting that neither RE or childcare businesses have negative outlook?


----------



## jbocker

aus_trader said:


> Every now and then there has been enquiries from fellow members as to how the investment philosophy or trading method is formulated in this portfolio. The answers may have been disappointing because the expectation was a precise step by step method or that of a recipe. If the request was for a chocolate cake, I would have been able to readily provide a recipe, but I don't actually have one for the spec portfolio. Not holding anything back because I love sharing information and this portfolio thread would be like looking inside my head as to how I come up with suitable candidates...



Thanks @aus_trader for the insight. I am in awe and really enjoyed it. While I guess you make (most?) entries on the broader consideration that influence the fundamentals of companies and do you own perceptive forecasts on which companies may benefit, do you ever EXIT using the same? I would guess most exits would be on price action.


----------



## aus_trader

qldfrog said:


> I try to restrain from discretionary trading/investment but for the reit discussed, are we not buying a dual business: one real estate side of brick and mortar and one pure childcare and associated side.
> If either goes down aka RE component, the SP should go down
> I guess you are betting that neither RE or childcare businesses have negative outlook?




Very good broad level thinking qldfrog. Yes it's a real estate business as well, although not a franchise like McDonald's which is also a real estate business for those who thought it's a pure burger chain. So there is some risk with commercial real estate tanking and affecting the CQE share price while the childcare business could be thriving. This leads me to answer the question by jbocker very precisely and succinctly:



jbocker said:


> Thanks @aus_trader for the insight. I am in awe and really enjoyed it. While I guess you make (most?) entries on the broader consideration that influence the fundamentals of companies and do you own perceptive forecasts on which companies may benefit, do you ever EXIT using the same? I would guess most exits would be on price action.




I rarely use the exit using the same level of analysis, however I may take adverse developments to head to the exit which is once in a blue moon. As an example see the last time CQE was in the portfolio and I was sweating it when it didn't report the dividend amount/date right up to the ex-date and it was paying close to or above 100% payout ratio and exited the position soon after.

So you are correct, I use the share price action either chart based or as a maximum % I am willing to lose on my position as an exit criteria. In answering the qldfrog question above and a similar question by Peter2 about another current holding in this portfolio (BPT), I have shown that this is not a buy and hold portfolio. I could have done 10 hours of research and a lot of thinking to come up with the stock selection at the time of purchase but there are things that are beyond my capacity to de-risk in doing so. The unforeseen risk of commercial real estate market on the CQE stock at the time of buying is a good example, although CQE has recently raised capital to strengthen it's balance sheet:


----------



## qldfrog

aus_trader said:


> Very good broad level thinking qldfrog. Yes it's a real estate business as well, although not a franchise like McDonald's which is also a real estate business for those who thought it's a pure burger chain. So there is some risk with commercial real estate tanking and affecting the CQE share price while the childcare business could be thriving. This leads me to answer the question by jbocker very precisely and succinctly:
> 
> 
> 
> I rarely use the exit using the same level of analysis, however I may take adverse developments to head to the exit which is once in a blue moon. As an example see the last time CQE was in the portfolio and I was sweating it when it didn't report the dividend amount/date right up to the ex-date and it was paying close to or above 100% payout ratio and exited the position soon after.
> 
> So you are correct, I use the share price action either chart based or as a maximum % I am willing to lose on my position as an exit criteria. In answering the qldfrog question above and a similar question by Peter2 about another current holding in this portfolio (BPT), I have shown that this is not a buy and hold portfolio. I could have done 10 hours of research and a lot of thinking to come up with the stock selection at the time of purchase but there are things that are beyond my capacity to de-risk in doing so. The unforeseen risk of commercial real estate market on the CQE stock at the time of buying is a good example, although CQE has recently raised capital to strengthen it's balance sheet:
> 
> View attachment 103853



A like is not enough, thanks for providing us with your thinking and research process.
Not for me but i am an IT guy and math science focused so it is understandable that systems are more palatable to me


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## aus_trader

A huge stimulus is being rolled out across Australia with the homebuilder package, but it comes with conditions:


https://www.abc.net.au/news/2020-06-05/funding-coronavirus-homebuilder-renovation-grants/12321724

There is a whole discussion going on about it on another thread which I have been reading and posting occasionally in:
Morrison Puts Up Cost of Renovations by 16.6% or $25,000

I've been pondering about how could I align this portfolio to get a whiff of all that money pouring through the economy ?

There is likely to be several beneficiaries including homebuilder companies and building supply material firms including hardware stores. But that could be much further down the track... Taking a punt on those could be too early at this stage in my opinion. First approvals have to be signed for the work and the $150,000 has to be come up with. That's where I got the idea for the next stock pick.

People going ahead with this scheme are likely to borrow most of that money or extend their mortgage with their bank. So in an environment where the banks have had low loan portfolio growth and heavily sold down share prices, this could be just the boost they are looking for.

I didn't spend a lot of time comparing apples with apples because this is likely to be a big enough tidal wave that will lift all boats (even the 4 big ships). But due to the high dividend yield on offer and share price that has more than halved, I decided to jump on a medium sized boat to ride this wave,
Bank of Queensland Limited (BOQ).

I've also been looking at the smaller end of the market for disruptors and promising start-ups. This is where my other stock pick came into the radar. 1st Group Ltd (1ST), provide online bookings for Health Clinics, Pet services and Pharmacies at the click of a button so to speak. Their network has been growing rapidly:



and so has their revenues:



I took a smaller position as this stock tends to be quite volatile, still early days for this small cap I believe.

Open Portfolio:



Wish everyone a great long weekend


----------



## Trav.

@aus_trader a little of topic mate but I was typing in your portfolio stock codes into a watchlist and noted that I was pressing B, C & Q a few times so maybe I could filter stocks based on that condition. 

Anyway great post above mate and keep up the good work.

Trav.


----------



## aus_trader

Trav. said:


> @aus_trader a little of topic mate but I was typing in your portfolio stock codes into a watchlist and noted that I was pressing B, C & Q a few times so maybe I could filter stocks based on that condition.
> 
> Anyway great post above mate and keep up the good work.
> 
> Trav.



Thanks Trav.
Pure coincidence mate, I look at stocks across the board in all the nooks and crannies in the asx.


----------



## aus_trader

I've been looking at the outcome of the current stocks in the portfolio and it's clear that it hasn't been easy picking stocks for the recovery. Some have given back all the recent gains plus some e.g. BIN.

So I am looking for stocks which not only could offer some general economy based recovery but also specifically targeted to benefit from the pandemic, call them 'pandemic stocks' if you like. Some changes are likely to become part of the future and one of those things is remote/online learning.

I have been researching stocks in this space and I quite like the Children's online Education company 3P Learning Ltd (3PL), so bought some shares. They provide online learning programs like Mathletics and Reading Eggs to improve children's Literacy and Numeracy skills. Due to constant distractions as a result of shut downs, it becomes increasingly difficult for Schools to provide the consistent learning environment based in classrooms. Therefore companies like 3PL are gaining traction as alternative learning tools that Children can use from home. 3PL has recently won a $10m contract which will add to their revenue:




Open Portfolio:


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## qldfrog

Nice pick


----------



## flash007a

Bought Bingo today. 

Been waiting on the sideline for a while at the current SP. 

@aus_trader - I know you are making a small loss with Bingo. Will you be thinking of selling if it goes down further?


----------



## Telamelo

Mayne Pharma Group (MYX) getting noticed/some coverage as Lazard (substantial holder 07/07/20) tops up with $6.5M worth of shares over recent week's.

https://kalkinemedia.com/au/us-shar...der-discussion-3-things-you-might-have-missed

MYX - Very nice strong finish of 44.5c +3.49% (it's day high!) and more importantly, finally closing above it's 200 dma (of 43.2c) so onwards and upwards from here.

1 yr chart shows a big "open gap" b/w 50-55c that sooner or later should get filled imo dyor


----------



## aus_trader

flash007a said:


> Bought Bingo today.
> 
> Been waiting on the sideline for a while at the current SP.
> 
> @aus_trader - I know you are making a small loss with Bingo. Will you be thinking of selling if it goes down further?



Yes, I have been patient with this stock and thought it may start heading back up. I also thought this stock is a good proxy to the state of the economy and how well the recovery is going. Given BIN's performance, I am more convinced of my cautious view, therefore BIN was let go from this portfolio today.

Biggest movers are once again the Fintech Tech stocks, where a junior is in this portfolio. There is sporadic fireworks amongst different stocks in this sector and today it came from Sezzle Inc (SZL), which went into a Trading Halt after a massive run:



Closed from Portfolio:


----------



## Telamelo

Telamelo said:


> Mayne Pharma Group (MYX) getting noticed/some coverage as Lazard (substantial holder 07/07/20) tops up with $6.5M worth of shares over recent week's.
> 
> https://kalkinemedia.com/au/us-shar...der-discussion-3-things-you-might-have-missed
> 
> MYX - Very nice strong finish of 44.5c +3.49% (it's day high!) and more importantly, finally closing above it's 200 dma (of 43.2c) so onwards and upwards from here.
> 
> 1 yr chart shows a big "open gap" b/w 50-55c that sooner or later should get filled imo dyor



MYX appears to be in a "medium-term rally" confirmed by multiple indicators. Most importantly, the 5-day moving average is above both the 20 and 50-day moving averages. Furthermore, it bounced off it's 200dma critical support level yesterday in sp closing just above it.


----------



## Telamelo

Telamelo said:


> MYX appears to be in a "medium-term rally" confirmed by multiple indicators. Most importantly, the 5-day moving average is above both the 20 and 50-day moving averages. Furthermore, it bounced off it's 200dma critical support level yesterday in sp closing just above it.



Great to see MYX sp passing above the 200MA. Could use some big funds being interested at entering at these price levels. Load up and wait imo. Golden cross in sight!! 
Nice strong green candle today! DYOR

360 buyers for 8,808,887 units vs 244 sellers for 5,214,403 units


----------



## aus_trader

Oil price seems to have tapered out after the big recovery run from the century lows...




I am disappointed with the Oil play BPT's performance, like others e.g. WPL, it hasn't really lifted to heights that I was expecting. I bought BPT as a possible high performer (leveraged play) to Oil price recovery, but after running up a bit it has headed back down making Lower-High Lower-Low's, therefore it was sold today.

Recent Closed Positions:


----------



## aus_trader

Decided to lock in profits for one of the Gold plays in the portfolio. Kind of each way bet: if prices fall from here then at least one stock has locked in profits but if prices rise from here then there is still one stock exposed to higher Gold prices.

Looking at the charts, I thought the chart for Gold Road Resources Ltd (GOR) looked a bit toppy/risky in the short term (see chart explanation below), so that was sold to lock in profits.




Recently Sold:


----------



## Chronos-Plutus

This might help some people for selecting speculative mining stocks, not financial advice, just some basic information:





https://www.visualcapitalist.com/ho...akes-with-mining-stocks-part-2-business-plan/


----------



## aus_trader

Some really good information when assessing mining companies and mining hopefuls Chronos-Plutus. Thank you for posting.


----------



## Chronos-Plutus

aus_trader said:


> Some really good information when assessing mining companies and mining hopefuls Chronos-Plutus. Thank you for posting.




I thought it was a good overview. Anyway buddy, I am going to get some rest.


----------



## aus_trader

Great announcement today by 1st Group Ltd (1ST) of a long-term partnership with Buy-Now-Pay-Later (BNPL) firm OpenPay Group Ltd (OPY). I have highlighted the benefits that will flow through to 1ST in the announcement:



Share price got a boost today and was up 100%'s of percent during the spike that subsided later in the day. I don't trade intra-day spikes usually unless it's a worthwhile take-over, but this is setting up 1ST in a very good position for the medium to longer term, especially as a pandemic play in this portfolio.


----------



## aus_trader

Market is inching higher, but there are pockets and individual sectors of the market that are showing strength and powering along with the recovery. But is the price rise due to being swept up by the overall rise of the markets or is there some oomph under the hood ?

It has been the theme lately to try and pick the stocks that may do well despite the current health situation or even benefit from it, hence naming them as 'pandemic plays'. 

I have seen the strength of the gambling/betting stocks of late, they kept popping up in the strongest movers list every few days just like today:




So I decided to take a look at the nuts and bolts. Quickly skipping through the multi-billion dollar usual suspects in the betting/wagering/gambling/punting scene, I narrowed my search down to two possible picks in the smaller end of town:
1. Pointsbet Holdings Ltd (PBH)
2. Betmakers Technology Group Ltd (BET)

Both are good to be put into this portfolio as they are each diversified in international markets such as Australia, USA and UK etc and they even collaborate with each other on certain deals:




As PBH is nearly approaching $1bn market cap, I decided to buy the minnow BET which is still under $300M. So does it tick the boxes as a pandemic play ? Having a look at the latest announcement, BET is increasing it's revenues rapidly even in this environment, so it qualifies easily without me guessing the impact on the company, as per announcement:




Open Portfolio:


----------



## vishu20

is Sezzle(SZL) price is going up after the announcement today? Do i hold or sell now?
Thanks


----------



## aus_trader

vishu20 said:


> is Sezzle(SZL) price is going up after the announcement today? Do i hold or sell now?
> Thanks



It really depends on whether you want to take short-term profits or hold for the medium to longer term. If you are really worried take some profit by selling a part of the shares and hold the rest. Best of luck 

I don't hold SZL in the portfolio as can be seen above since the only similar small cap in that Fintech space that I hold is QFE that has done pretty well so far...


----------



## aus_trader

As part of the Alkane Resources Limited (ALK) spin off, the newly listed Australian Strategic Materials (Holdings) Ltd (ASM) shares appeared in my brokerage account a couple of days ago.

Having watched the massive fall in those freely allotted ASM shares yesterday, I decided to put them on sale first thing this morning 'on market' and were sold.

Recent Sells:


----------



## aus_trader

Took profits on Alkane Resources Limited (ALK) as the Gold price has pulled back sharply.

Closed:



Added a position of the good-old Cabcharge Ltd, now called A2B Australia Ltd (A2B). It was smashed in terms of revenues when the pandemic first hit. Now reporting that it is recovering from that initial shock and revenues are growing at a healthy pace both locally and overseas except Vic which is in a full-on lockdown. Hopefully Vic will contribute to growth of A2B as well in the near future...




Open Positions:


----------



## aus_trader

I could hold out for a long while (Till Dec) in possible anticipation of a higher takeover bid, but decided to take what's currently on offer on the market (which is 1c lower than the takeover scheme cash offer of $1.35) for 3P Learning Ltd (3PL).

That way I could re-deploy these profits onto other stock opportunities that could arise in the near future...

Recently Closed Positions:


----------



## aus_trader

I found there is a bit of a feeding frenzy at the microcap penny stock end of the market at the moment and I am not able to put these fizzy rattlers on this portfolio as the volatility is crazy. I'll be kicked out of positions in no time and they'll blast off to the moon laughing off their butts at me.

To provide an example of the volatility, I took a minimum quantity position (a mere $500 stake) on Buddy Technologies Ltd (BUD) recently. It went down about 30% over the last couple of days and it's back up nearly 20% in one day today:




Every now and then I take these type of trades that are too erratic for this thread, but I may mention them in their respective penny stock threads such as the Silver penny stock Silver Mines Limited (SVL) that has doubled on my initial stake as of now, but having to sit through nearly 50% drawdowns while holding it over a period of time.

On the other end of the spectrum, I have also looked into buying a few long term stocks that have had big drops in their share prices due to the pandemic situation. I have purchased an airline stock today that I think will survive the pandemic and prosper once the world overcomes it. I don't know what draw downs I will have endure but I plan to hold it, so not suitable for this trading portfolio. I have put it in the *Medium/Longer Term Stock Portfolio*.


----------



## Dona Ferentes

After selling most of my SLC after a poor result, last month, I went back in today at $1.08. This follows the First State superfund takeover move on OptiComm OPC. If some long term player is gobbling up fibre optic networks, then there's a possibility another one could fall. Especially as a prior offer was at $1.90, even though it was pulled.


----------



## aus_trader

Dona Ferentes said:


> After selling most of my SLC after a poor result, last month, I went back in today at $1.08. This follows the First State superfund takeover move on OptiComm OPC. If some long term player is gobbling up fibre optic networks, then there's a possibility another one could fall. Especially as a prior offer was at $1.90, even though it was pulled.



SLC has spent a vast amount of money laying the sub-sea cabling to SE Asia and building the communications infrastructure. I have it in my watched stocks list as well and may consider buying in at some stage. An asset rich cash poor stock in my opinion, and as you said, one of these days the value of the assets may come into the radar of a big fund or private equity firm...


----------



## aus_trader

Shares have backed off today and I've locked in the gains of two stocks that have put some runs on the board.

Closed Stocks:


----------



## aus_trader

Since buying the 1 banking stock BOQ for this portfolio, I've been looking at what other companies could play a part in the artificially manufactured building boom. Artificially manufactured because of Govt grants for new homes and big budget extensions/renovations etc which I have mentioned in the past. Nevertheless there is money sloshing around and going to specific companies that would benefit and that's what I am aiming for.

 I've been looking at a few players in the sector such as cement makers, brick makers etc. but I preferred a stock that provided a bit more diversity in terms of product range. I decided to buy a few shares of a stock that that has been in this portfolio before,  CSR Limited (CSR).

They have a wide range of construction products to supply the building industry with, not just traditional bricks and pavers but new lighter weight products like Hebel, insulation products and roofing products...



It also has further diversification away from the building industry with CSR Sugar. I decided what's available at Coles and I was surprised how many varieties of sugar are available , below is just a few:




It pays a dividend as well usually, which would be appreciated by investors in the current environment.

Open Portfolio:


----------



## frugal.rock

Enjoy the sugar rush 

Have you looked at FBR and EDE ?
There more of a speculative nature than CSR.
I believe sugar prices are at a world low... ? 
I have been thinking about Boral and EDI Downer as potential stimulus beneficiary candidates. WAM is in general agreement with this theory...


----------



## Miner

Dont forget SHH - speculative list


----------



## aus_trader

frugal.rock said:


> Enjoy the sugar rush
> 
> Have you looked at FBR and EDE ?
> There more of a speculative nature than CSR.
> I believe sugar prices are at a world low... ?
> I have been thinking about Boral and EDI Downer as potential stimulus beneficiary candidates. WAM is in general agreement with this theory...



Yes I have looked at few of them, in fact one of the stocks in this space locally I looked at was Boral. At 27x P/E I think it may have run pretty hard already, so I may have missed the boat, getting in early on that.

FBR and EDE are in the smaller end of the market with quite large swings in share price, so I would be hesitant to put into this portfolio.

Besides I looked at EDE for example years ago when they were expanding into US road building etc. Things haven't really kicked on and I am glad to have sold out as I would have been really frustrated as a long term hopeful, hoping for the price to recover...

FBR looks interesting as a concept to replace human brickies with robots in the building industry. But commercialisation and revenue generation look like something in the far far distance, if that were to ever happen. At the moment Directors are paying themselves handsomely with salaries and shares but the company is barely making a dime in revenues...



In terms of share prices, there seems to be a general downtrend for service companies to the construction and mining industry. Even the big fellas in this space like good old Leighton Holdings now called Cimic Grp (CIM) and  Monadelphous Group Limited (MND) are lagging in the recovery or trending down. So will wait and see before investing in this space.


----------



## Dona Ferentes

frugal.rock said:


> Enjoy the sugar rush
> 
> Have you looked at FBR and EDE ?
> There more of a speculative nature than CSR.
> I believe sugar prices are at a world low... ?



 CSR Limited (CSR) is engages in manufacture and supply of building products in Australia and New Zealand. In Australia, CSR hold interest in the smelting of aluminium through its 70% interest in Gove Aluminium Finance Limited, which owns 36.05% of the Tomago aluminium smelter located near Newcastle . As well it hold significant industrial property (56 Freehold Sites › 1,438 hectares owned by CSR – includes operating sites) mainly in Western Sydney. 

(but no Sugar)


----------



## frugal.rock

Wikipedia
"Founded in Sydney in 1855 as the *Colonial Sugar Refining Company*, the company expanded into milling cane in Queensland and Fiji from the 1870s. It quickly became the most important miller and refiner in Australasia, with a virtual monopoly on Queensland and Fiji sugar production up to, respectively, 1989 and 1972. It also sold by-products of the sugar industry, from mollasses to ethanol. *In 2010, CSR sold its sugar and ethanol business, which had been given the name Sucrogen in 2009, to the Singaporean company Wilmar. As of 2015, the business is known as Wilmar Sugar."*

Good one Dona.
I guess this is why I don't buy CSR sugar... The CSR name was always associated with sugar...
All the better for Austrader with sugar on the pile...


----------



## Dona Ferentes

But how about *Colonial*; how about that for anachronistic non-PCedness? Or, reducing it to a TLA like everything including their name, LoL


----------



## aus_trader

frugal.rock said:


> Wikipedia
> "Founded in Sydney in 1855 as the *Colonial Sugar Refining Company*, the company expanded into milling cane in Queensland and Fiji from the 1870s. It quickly became the most important miller and refiner in Australasia, with a virtual monopoly on Queensland and Fiji sugar production up to, respectively, 1989 and 1972. It also sold by-products of the sugar industry, from mollasses to ethanol. *In 2010, CSR sold its sugar and ethanol business, which had been given the name Sucrogen in 2009, to the Singaporean company Wilmar. As of 2015, the business is known as Wilmar Sugar."*
> 
> Good one Dona.
> I guess this is why I don't buy CSR sugar... The CSR name was always associated with sugar...
> All the better for Austrader with sugar on the pile...



OK, I got the assumption that the sugar business was still owned by CSR wrong. Well that is interesting that the sugar business still uses CSR logo and that got me thinking it was still part of CSR. It means no sugar in the business, it's more leveraged to the building industry.


----------



## aus_trader

Dona Ferentes said:


> CSR Limited (CSR) is engages in manufacture and supply of building products in Australia and New Zealand. In Australia, CSR hold interest in the smelting of aluminium through its 70% interest in Gove Aluminium Finance Limited, which owns 36.05% of the Tomago aluminium smelter located near Newcastle . As well it hold significant industrial property (56 Freehold Sites › 1,438 hectares owned by CSR – includes operating sites) mainly in Western Sydney.
> 
> (but no Sugar)



Well done on doing further research on CSR, thanks DF.   

Yes you are absolutely right about the Aluminium involvement, in fact CSR saw a big increase in their Aluminium based revenues:


----------



## Miner

frugal.rock said:


> Wikipedia
> "Founded in Sydney in 1855 as the *Colonial Sugar Refining Company*, the company expanded into milling cane in Queensland and Fiji from the 1870s. It quickly became the most important miller and refiner in Australasia, with a virtual monopoly on Queensland and Fiji sugar production up to, respectively, 1989 and 1972. It also sold by-products of the sugar industry, from mollasses to ethanol. *In 2010, CSR sold its sugar and ethanol business, which had been given the name Sucrogen in 2009, to the Singaporean company Wilmar. As of 2015, the business is known as Wilmar Sugar."*
> 
> Good one Dona.
> I guess this is why I don't buy CSR sugar... The CSR name was always associated with sugar...
> All the better for Austrader with sugar on the pile...



Good research and share.


----------



## Dona Ferentes

aus_trader said:


> Well done on doing further research on CSR, thanks DF.
> 
> Yes you are absolutely right about the Aluminium involvement, in fact CSR saw a big increase in their Aluminium based revenues:
> 
> View attachment 112008



And the land... All they need is a John Elliott to flog everything off. Nice way to boost top line , though, in a quiet year.  Bit like SOL/ BKW


----------



## aus_trader

*BOQ* is underperforming in the Big Bullish day for the banks today...




Haven't had a day for the banks to shine like today for a while, something must be up...


----------



## frugal.rock

aus_trader said:


> Haven't had a day for the banks to shine like today for a while, something must be up...



Just a bleary eyed announcement by the Treasury,
 the Honourable Fries n Burger.
The guv has finally realised that the current red tape to get a loan is like plastic handcuffs...


----------



## aus_trader

frugal.rock said:


> Just a bleary eyed announcement by the Treasury,
> the Honourable Fries n Burger.
> The guv has finally realised that the current red tape to get a loan is like plastic handcuffs...



Good analysis FR   

I also heard on the news that there is extended support for small businesses that are facing bankruptcy, so that's got to be good for the bank balance sheets in terms of asset write offs.


----------



## aus_trader

I have bought a stock that is at it's historic All-Time-Low's in terms of price, the sort of thing that gets me exited. It's not a penny stock that's hitting the low's because it's running out of cash and may be about to call in the administrative lawyers to 'garage sale' it's assets if there is any. It's a highly profitable dividend paying stock that could be about to get a boost of revenues due to the unique situation we are in. Will write about it over the weekend right here in the spec portfolio thread when I get time, in the mean time here's a sneak preview:


----------



## frugal.rock

What sort of sneak preview is that...
what's the name...ticker
Hurry up, closing soon...


----------



## aus_trader

frugal.rock said:


> What sort of sneak preview is that...
> what's the name...ticker
> Hurry up, closing soon...



Mortgage Choice Limited  (*MOC*), will give details later...


----------



## aus_trader

OK, had a very busy weekend, but here is my reasoning for buying  Mortgage Choice Limited (MOC). I've been watching it for a while and didn't pull the trigger till Friday because sometimes buying too early is just as costly as buying too late. I have had quite a few stocks that has gone initially against me and once I have exited, it has soared like there is no tomorrow.  So perhaps my initial analysis was good but the timing was awful, and because this is a trading portfolio it's not like I can hope and pray when a position has gone a fair bit against me.

Anyway, I think MOC is at an inflection point where it may be the right time to buy. It's also got multiple triggers that's got me exited, such as:

Good fundamental reasons and why favourable conditions are just about set for this stock
On a longer term chart, MOC has hit All-Time-Lows and bounced back
On a shorter/medium term chart MOC is breaking out to the upside
So let's talk about each of those points. First the fundamentals. Since the pandemic has hit, most of MOC's customers have gone on holidays and they are about to come back in a big way. Yes, the mortgage holidays offered to customers by the banks are about to expire very soon and when they do, home owners and investment loan owners will be scurrying back to companies such as MOC to check, compare and re-finance.

I don't think there is many competitors to MOC on ASX either, so MOC is kind of a monopoly to dominate across the ASX. I could find Aussie Home Loans as a competitor, but they are not listed on the ASX.

On a long term charting perspective, MOC has bounced back from what looks like a false break of the All-Time-Lows:



On a medium term chart, it's made a breakout to the upside, which is encouraging:



I also bought a smaller stake in another stock in an area that I was researching up. I was encouraged by the take over of 3P Learning Ltd (3PL), that was offered a very nice premium to it's share price, so started searching everywhere for similar themes throughout the asx.

Although not exactly in the same online learning space for kids, I found another stock that is in the area of online security for kids. It has run up quite a bit lately and I am not a big fan of chasing stocks. Yes, I realise that might be counter-intuitive to a lot of the momentum traders and other system based trading members on the forum. So anyway I decided to try my luck with a smaller position size than I would normally buy during the closing minutes of Friday's session. The company is  Family Zone Cyber Safety Ltd (FZO).

They basically protect children across all devices for schools, home etc:




Although not profitable yet, this company has been growing fast. In fact the pandemic has anything but accelerated that growth it seems:




Open Portfolio:


----------



## aus_trader

I don't have exact rules as to exiting a stock when it has gone "no where" for a long time. I like to give quite a bit of time for a trade to work out: either as a winner and take profit or as a loser and be cut. But at some point in time, it's simply not good enough to keep capital tied up in stocks that has not done either. So I have decided to chop two of the existing stocks in the portfolio and keep that capital for other opportunities as they arise from stock research.

Both BET and 1ST have been sold and therefore exits this portfolio. I even saw rough "Head and Shoulders" chart pattern on those charts, which could be bearish in the short term as well...

Closed Positions:


----------



## Skate

aus_trader said:


> Both BET and 1ST have been sold and therefore exits this portfolio.




@aus_trader my Ducati Daily Blue Bar Strategy is in agreement.










Skate.


----------



## aus_trader

Skate said:


> @aus_trader my Ducati Daily Blue Bar Strategy is in agreement.
> 
> View attachment 112526
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> View attachment 112527
> 
> 
> Skate.



Thank you @Skate great to see the alignment in the sell timing


----------



## Telamelo

Betmakers Technology *BET* moving up nicely today @ 0.445c +7.23% on very good volume - anyone still holding this one? seems a decent looking chart too.


----------



## aus_trader

Telamelo said:


> Betmakers Technology *BET* moving up nicely today @ 0.445c +7.23% on very good volume - anyone still holding this one? seems a decent looking chart too.



Yeah, has gapped up today with no news or announcements... 
I don't hold.


----------



## Telamelo

aus_trader said:


> Yeah, has gapped up today with no news or announcements...
> I don't hold.



Previous open 'gap up' on *BET* since closed in after market closing auction yesterday (on lowish volume retrace). 

Upcoming 4c report due within a week from now anticipated to deliver some promising/exciting news imo  dyor  cheers tela


----------



## aus_trader

A stock that I have been watching has pulled back a bit for me to take a position on. I have talked about it in the last ASF monthly competition when it was brought to attention after being picked by @Faramir last month. In fact I have expressed my interest in the stock as it is in the online education sector that has performed well due to the current pandemic situation:



aus_trader said:


> OK Faramir, as for your wish this is my take on OLL.
> 
> In it's most simplified explanation why I reckon it's getting attention is, two words: Online Education.
> 
> To expand the above point, a lot of things including retail are going more and more online and the pandemic situation has put fuel to that fire. Online education is no different. So I think OLL is at the right place at the right time.
> 
> I don't hold, but I would definitely be putting OLL to my watchlists of interested stocks to consider. I have made a tidy profit of around 50% on another online education stock 3PL that recently got taken over, all the details are in the *Speculative Stock Portfolio*.
> 
> So if 3PL is the Online Education stock for the School kids, then OLL is the stock that is for the bigger kids like us.




Openlearning Ltd (OLL) is expanding rapidly and the current situation is helping it grow:




But what's more interesting is that it has changed it's service offering from a* fixed revenue* model to a *revenue share* model:




Has wide ranging clients that are educational providers right across the Asia-Pacific region:




This small company has big bald plans, to be the leader in it's region and be up against the US/UK giants in the sector:




Open Portfolio:


----------



## Telamelo

*BET* 4c Quarterly highlights:


*• Cash receipts up +63% on previous quarter ($3.9 million versus $2.4 million)
• ~$16 million Annualised Revenue Run Rate based on Q1 FY21 (Unaudited)
• Strong growth driven by Managed Trading Services and Global Racing Network
• BetMakers growing Australian revenues ahead of international expansion
• Closing cash balance of $32.8 million in the bank (no debt)*



Todd Buckingham said: “The business has now delivered two consecutive quarters of sustained growth, leveraged from its strong base of recurring revenues, and we believe we are in a strong position to continue to expand our products and services.



“The impressive growth we are seeing over the past two quarters is a result of the successful development, launch and implementation of our products and services in the Australian market over the past few years.



“The Company has a strong technology and leadership team across the business and its innovative B2B wagering technology products have generated strong results since launching into the Australian market, which gives us great confidence for further roll outs both domestically and into new overseas markets.



*“In particular, Our Managed Trading Services business has been a success, not only for BetMakers but also for our customers using the service.”*



DYOR as always..


----------



## Telamelo

Telamelo said:


> *BET* 4c Quarterly highlights:
> 
> 
> *• Cash receipts up +63% on previous quarter ($3.9 million versus $2.4 million)
> • ~$16 million Annualised Revenue Run Rate based on Q1 FY21 (Unaudited)
> • Strong growth driven by Managed Trading Services and Global Racing Network
> • BetMakers growing Australian revenues ahead of international expansion
> • Closing cash balance of $32.8 million in the bank (no debt)*
> 
> 
> 
> Todd Buckingham said: “The business has now delivered two consecutive quarters of sustained growth, leveraged from its strong base of recurring revenues, and we believe we are in a strong position to continue to expand our products and services.
> 
> 
> 
> “The impressive growth we are seeing over the past two quarters is a result of the successful development, launch and implementation of our products and services in the Australian market over the past few years.
> 
> 
> 
> “The Company has a strong technology and leadership team across the business and its innovative B2B wagering technology products have generated strong results since launching into the Australian market, which gives us great confidence for further roll outs both domestically and into new overseas markets.
> 
> 
> 
> *“In particular, Our Managed Trading Services business has been a success, not only for BetMakers but also for our customers using the service.”*
> 
> 
> 
> DYOR as always..



*BET* taken off now @ 0.47c +10.59%  has crossed above 50dma a bullish sign! dyor


----------



## aus_trader

As some of you know, I have been researching the Rare Earth (RE) plays on the ASX for some time and have posted in some of the relevant threads. The research is done and thank you for the members who threw names/asx codes of RE plays at me to do the research on that I didn't even know existed. All have been put through the forensic examination 🔎

Some are shooting to the moon in terms of share price and I am not chasing it, given my success of latching onto flying objects is pathetic ! For the chasers, who might be interested and why this sector is red hot right now, here are some stocks:

Largest Aussie listed RE play with a multi-billion dollar Market Cap, LYC:



ASM:


Those of you who have been reading this thread know I held ASM shares from the ALK spin out, but sold soon after and in hindsight quite prematurely as they have tripled since then 

Anyway, moving on...

ARR:



REE:



VML:



and for the biggest runner of all, PM8:



I've also run my pencil over ARU and HAS. I think that just about covers the ASX RE space. I get obsessed when I start digging... 

So after all that did I purchase anything ? Yes but none of the above. Yes, YES some are with some substance with a RE deposit already defined and some are more advanced such as ASM which has a operating pilot plant, but the only commercial level RE production company is LYC. Some stocks have already shot to the moon on the hope of one of their drill holes will hit some of these obscure rare substances someday... 

But to my surprise I found a highly strategic, nationally significant RE deposit that has already got a pilot plant up and running flying under the radar from the speculator frenzy.  Northern Minerals Ltd  (NTU) has a very strategic deposit that is rich in the heaviest of the RE metals that carry higher value. It's of National significance that a Chinese firm that tried to get onto the control of the company from the inside was blocked by the Federal Government:






This is also at a time when US is desperate to find RE suppliers outside of China as trade war continues...







So a parcel of NTU shares were bought for this portfolio. I will update the portfolio later.


----------



## aus_trader

Current Open Portfolio with Northern Minerals Ltd (NTU) that was just bought:


----------



## over9k

Have you looked into DEG? There's talk of $10/share by the end of next year. They just released a big presentation that I linked in the DEG thread.


----------



## aus_trader

over9k said:


> Have you looked into DEG? There's talk of $10/share by the end of next year. They just released a big presentation that I linked in the DEG thread.



Well it might be a good Gold and base metal prospect but I don't think it's in the area of Rare metals. So I can't really compare like-for-like.

It's no longer a junior since it has surpassed the 1bn+ market cap, so you'll really have to compare with the other mid-tier Gold and base metal miners on the asx to see if it still has another 10-fold upside ? I am thinking along the lines of comparing to SLR, GOR, SAR etc...


----------



## aus_trader

I don't like to post updates and news about stocks on this thread on a regular basis, this is just a trading portfolio journal. Besides, that would be seen as unnecessary promoting and ramping 

But I regularly post in individual stock threads whenever I find relevant information to inform fellow ASF members and also to help Joe who keeps this site/forum open for us.

So I have posted an article in the NTU thread:
*NTU - Northern Minerals*

and also posted a video presentation in OLL thread:
*OLL - OpenLearning Limited*


----------



## aus_trader

Openlearning Ltd (OLL) came out of the transformative company announcement and capital raising which was well received by the market.



Further discussions have been posted on the relevant thread:

*OLL - OpenLearning Limited*


----------



## aus_trader

Hi guys and gals,

I've been so busy lately that I couldn't update a purchase I made yesterday. Got home after mid-night and just didn't have the energy to keep you all informed...

It's a little gem in the small cap space that I've researched up and has an involvement in a global mega trend that is happening. Just saw that it has a dividend yield on it which is the icing on the cake, because I would have bought it to play the mega-trend growth possibility even without the Div ! It's like being paid to hold something you would think would appreciate over time.

I'll try and write up a full update on the company ( Rectifier Technologies Limited - RFT) if I get time over the rest of the week, if not over the weekend.

Also don't have time to do a portfolio update on the existing stocks. So just the purchase:


----------



## aus_trader

FZO has not done well since purchase and looks to be trending down on the short-term on the chart. It was sold onto the late rally at 44c, will update the portfolio positions later on the weekend...


----------



## aus_trader

So a little bit about the  Rectifier Technologies Limited (RFT) that was purchased during the week. Well if you look it up, it makes rectifiers and electronic components, so what's the involvement in a Global mega trend ?

EV's or Electric Vehicles, it's tagged on as something that the company provides components for at the end of the company description:




I've also mentioned this small cap pays a dividend which is rare for small cap growth stocks, so also highlighted that above as well. Most small cap stocks don't make a dime and each time they burn through existing cash they keep coming back to the market to ask for more funds to keep them alive.

EV transformation is probably a slow trend and it's not likely to replace all the fossil fuel powered vehicles overnight. But that mega trend is in motion and there are entrepreneurs like Elon Musk who heads Tesla Motors ( NASDAQ: TSLA ) who is accelerating this trend with the recently built giga-factory. So in time it's likely that the fuel guzzlers will slowly get replaced with Electric Vehicles as once upon a time Henry Ford transformed transportation from Horse and Carts into Motor Cars.

Anyway I am not interested in investing in Electric Vehicle makers, but I would like to sell picks and shovels to miners and prospectors during a Gold rush; to use a mining analogy. So I think this little company RFT fits the bill pretty well. You see, along with the rise of EV's there needs to be a rise of Charging Stations and that's where RFT comes in. It is developing and making Home Chargers for EV's and has partnerships in place to supply components to Charging Station manufacturers like Tritium (https://www.tritium.com.au), a private company that is not listed on the asx...




RFT's recent announcements also show that there is a boost to their income coming in from EV components:



Open Portfolio:



Closed Positions:


----------



## Skate

*Rectifier Technologies Limited (RFT)  - supporting chart*
@aus_trader another great find. Your summation adds validity in supporting your ultimate purchase - well done.

*

*

Skate.


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## frugal.rock

Ticket purchased today and comfortably seated, as aposed to Frances SNCF train system....
Hopefully the train leaves the station this week.


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## aus_trader

Skate said:


> *Rectifier Technologies Limited (RFT)  - supporting chart*
> @aus_trader another great find. Your summation adds validity in supporting your ultimate purchase - well done.
> 
> *
> View attachment 114707
> *
> 
> Skate.



Thank you Skate, nice of you to post the chart of RFT with your technical indicators.


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## jbocker

RFT makes  me wanna sing an old Steppenwolf song Born to be Wild (it was my Friday knock-off song as a young bloke) and since its Friday sing along with me folks with *adaptions*...

Get your *Electric* motor runnin'
And head out on the highway
Lookin' for a d venture
And whatever comes our way
Yeah darlin' go make it happen
Take the world *stock* in a love embrace
Fire *Charge* all of your guns *motors* at once and explode into *roar outa* *this* space *place*

have a great weekend folks. Enjoy the sunshine Vics you have done fabulously well..


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## aus_trader

Maybe I held on a bit too long on to this one, but I thought it might recover so didn't sell a bit earlier. Anyway OLL was sold for a slightly bigger loss than I would normally prefer...

Recently closed positions:



Chart may also be suggesting the up trend maybe in doubt:


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## aus_trader

I am cautiously optimistic of the upcoming New Year, given it's been a roller coaster ride this year.

Looking at what themes are driving the market at the moment, I decided to buy small parcels of 2 stocks. Buying smaller parcels will allow me to hold through some volatility and draw downs that may arise in the short term...

First is the stock that has given the biggest % gain in this portfolio since inception when Bitcoin mania 1.0  swept across the planet. The little known Aussie Crypto/Blockchain stock rode on the back of that boom to multi-bag from initial purchase where it was sold in two tranches for very good profits as documented on this thread. Bitcoin has surpassed the peak that was reached back then, so I took a position in the same Aussie Crypto/Blockchain stock Digitalx Ltd (DCC) to ride the current Bitcoin boom 2.0



Lithium stocks have been on fire of late led by producers such as GXY, PLS and ORE. There are also deals being made to secure future supply of Li with upcoming juniors such as AVZ which had a stellar day on the market due to an offtake agreement. I decided to take a small position in Li junior  Lithium Australia NL (LIT) to participate in this boom.

Current Portfolio:



Wishing everyone a safe and happy New Year !


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## scolloymore

RFT still sitting nicely at .041 hopefully WSB crew will unsettle the market and this might drop that little bit more waiting at .034


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## mmidulla

aus_trader said:


> I buy a few speculative stocks every now and then with money I can afford to lose, so smallest parcels of around $500 each per stock. '...with money I can afford to lose' is very misleading as it sound like I have excess that I don't know what to do with ! Quite the opposite is true, I am an average Aussie battler and the money I put into these stocks is any free cash that I have after priorities are taken care of. Priorities are having sufficient funds for: mortgage, utility bills, car expenses, entire amount for monthly credit card balance (not the minimum repayment!), and living expenses (food/clothes etc). Once the basic priorities are taken care of, I have a few thousand in a cash account for emergencies or for a holiday. Then I have money put into longer  term stocks with some funds usually kept for new stock positions with a longer term horizon. With any remaining cash, I will buy speculative stocks mentioned in this thread. These include mining hopefuls, new technology startups and turnaround stories of companies trying to recover from near collapse. I have not been including these in my "*Medium/Longer Term Stock Portfolio*" as these tiny speculative stocks have wild swings such as 50% up or down days and once in a while one of these can go into administration and I will lose the entire stake in that stock, that's a 100% loss on that investment. So I didn't want that level of volatility in a longer term portfolio, hence the birth of this new thread "Speculative Stock Portfolio".
> 
> Although it's not common, I have had a few of them that went into bankruptcy either due to poor decision making (such as paying a huge amount for almost a worthless asset), racking up massive debts or running out of money and not being able to raise more capital. In these instances I have lost the amount put into that stock, usually around $500.
> 
> Two full paragraphs about Risks buying speculative stocks and depressive text about losing the entire investment in a stock. Usually speculative stock threads start with the biggest hype and excitement with predictions of the next tiny-cap stock that's shooting to the stars from what I've seen in forums. But with decade long experience and having survived through the GFC, I want to be realistic with the risk I'm taking with each speculative purchase.
> 
> So why put any money into these penny stocks anyway? Well, given the risk I'm taking, the story has to be big with each pick with potential to return multiple times the initial stake.
> 
> So the first stock for this portfolio is a new technology stock involved in using technology to cleanup environmental problems. These problems include air pollution, mining and chemical issues. Company is "Clean TeQ Holdings Limited (CLQ)" bought on 7th of July for 70.5c, a quantity of 750 shares.


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## aus_trader

Cry over spilt milk, APT, Z1P leaving those of us who are not in them for dead 

At least we made a bit of money on QFE lately in this portfolio.

Let's find the next superstar in that arena, stay tuned...


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## over9k

I made a bit & then torched my Z1P holding and pumped it into APT a while ago. It just did nothing but melt after its initial ebay contract bounce. 

APT has had a much steadier/nicer/consistent increase. We'll see if Z1P nosedives off a bounce again.


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## aus_trader

It's hard to fathom how far the Buy-Now-Pay-Later (BNPL) companies have gone. If I only knew back then I would have left part of the initial purchase of Z1P in this portfolio alone and not trade out of it. It would be worth 12x now or a cool 1200%+ ! Early holders of APT would be sitting on similar % gains.

Anyway, no point being disappointed with gains we haven't made but be proud of gains we have made. In the area of BNPL, both Z1P and QFE made good trades that were profitable in this portfolio in the past.

Rather than chasing the stocks that have already gone to the stratosphere, we would be much more content in looking for early stage opportunities in this portfolio. So I've been hard at work looking through the dozens of asx listed Fintech Payment companies to discover any that haven't run as hard with good future potential. Came across 2 potential candidates and bought both to provide some diversification and to avoid picking the wrong bunny (something I am really good at  )

First is a little firm that is really geared towards business loans as opposed to personal loans. It's been around a long time and used to be called CML group and traded on the asx under the ticker symbol CGR. Now re-branded as Earlypay Ltd (EPY) and re-focused on Small to Medium Enterprise (SME) business needs, I think it's worth adding to this portfolio. It's got a long history in it's making...




Experiencing growth even through the challenging business environment with lockdowns and subdued consumer confidence...


To top it all off, it pays a dividend as well...



The 2nd company is Openpay Group Ltd (OPY), which has both a business loan segment as well as BNPL segment targeting consumers. Here they are side by side...



It's not just following the herd either, it's got a different approach to it's competitors...



And most exciting is the fact that it's about to enter the US and UK markets. We know what happened to the two big gorillas in this space when they did that...



Also experiencing good growth...



Open Portfolio:


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## over9k

Worth noting that they're a pretty much homogenous products and some have much, much, MUCH nicer looking graphs than others. 

APT is the pick of the bunch IMO, and I hold for that reason.


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## frugal.rock

over9k said:


> much, much, MUCH



I note the Speculative Portfolio nature of this thread. 
APT is very speculative as it's way overpriced, the smart money has mostly already started rotating out of it, as expected for any stock losing momentum and thrust... it's complicated rocket science


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## aus_trader

frugal.rock said:


> I note the Speculative Portfolio nature of this thread.
> APT is very speculative as it's way overpriced, the smart money has mostly already started rotating out of it, as expected for any stock losing momentum and thrust... it's complicated rocket science



Yes you have the same line of thinking as me Mr. frugal rockstar !

That is the same reason I didn't chase the likes of APT's and Z1P's of the world and look for companies with much more discovery potential. We've made a bit of money in those big cap BNPL fellas such as with the Z1P trade back in their early growth phase.


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## aus_trader

I've sold both MOC and CQE on Friday, locking in profits. Will update the portfolio and post in the future...


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## aus_trader

Although RFT probably has longer term potential to play a part in the EV revolution, it's share price has been hit hard with the market retracement over the last few days. So sadly decided to let it go by selling into the small rally today. Will look to buy back in the future...

Closed Positions:


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## aus_trader

Underperforming stocks have been given a lot of time to align with the recovery of stocks, but running out of patience so they've been chopped... NTU, DCC and OPY.

Closed:



Rare Earth stock NTU went for a good run but has continued to pull back, testing my patience so eventually decided to sell it. I like to acknowledge when other ASF members have outperformed and @barney has alerted us to another Rare Earth stock VML (see VML thread) which has gone for a really good run. I nearly put VML in this portfolio, but at the time it was too volatile for me to decide on a stop loss if I bought it.


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## aus_trader

DCC was waiting for me to sell !!

Nice rally today  




Glad I didn't sell LIT which has been on the slide of late, but I noticed junior Li stocks like LIT are playing catch up with the big boys like ORE and GXY which are rallying up again...


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## Telamelo

Hey Everyone,
I'm speculating on DroneShield *DRO* given their many recent positive announcements in that I have a gut feel that a potential huge Middle East contract deal could soon come to fruition (as alluded too reading between the lines so to speak when going over their recent announcements). 

Cheers tela


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## Clansman

aus_trader said:


> Underperforming stocks have been given a lot of time to align with the recovery of stocks, but running out of patience so they've been chopped... NTU, DCC and OPY.
> 
> Closed:
> View attachment 122781
> 
> 
> Rare Earth stock NTU went for a good run but has continued to pull back, testing my patience so eventually decided to sell it. I like to acknowledge when other ASF members have outperformed and @barney has alerted us to another Rare Earth stock VML (see VML thread) which has gone for a really good run. I nearly put VML in this portfolio, but at the time it was too volatile for me to decide on a stop loss if I bought it.




That decision to sell BET really hurt. ouch. BIN not far behind. A couple of potential kingmakers right there.
I believe the outcomes on your list would be a lot different in a normal market. As we know the ASX is predominantly made up of complete rubbish so I suspect there would a lot more red on that list during normal operations.


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## aus_trader

Clansman said:


> That decision to sell BET really hurt. ouch. BIN not far behind. A couple of potential kingmakers right there.
> I believe the outcomes on your list would be a lot different in a normal market. As we know the ASX is predominantly made up of complete rubbish so I suspect there would a lot more red on that list during normal operations.




Yes those stocks have continued up north after they were sold out of this portfolio.

I should be keeping a better eye on the stocks that have been sold for turn-around plays as the hard yards of research has been done already.

Our market is looking very interesting as it looks to be breaking out higher, having recovered from the Covid crash...



We should be happy as we've picked some nice recovery stocks even during the depth of the crash and made some good % gains which should translate into money in the trading account.

I'll be looking to add stocks to this portfolio if the trend continues as there is plenty of cash to deploy for good speculative plays.


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## over9k

USA is screaming so AU will naturally follow. Triple levered etf's and just ride it


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## aus_trader

I've been keeping my eye on a turnaround mining play and it's no secret that I have made some recent posts about it including in the Potential Breakout Alerts! thread as well as stock specific MLX thread.

Research was done on MLX and looks like the worst is behind this mining stock which is probably the best asx listed Tin miner. However due to a Copper mining venture that became a headache for the company it's profitability and hence the share price has been hammered. I wrote a little background on the company in the breakout thread as per below:

""
Historically has done well with Tin. It's been a consistent dividend player in the past when it was a pure Tin play which I enjoyed in some yesteryear long ago.

Then they got greedy or didn't know what to do with all that profits pouring out of their Tin mine, so they ventured into a terrible Copper investment and had been heavily wounded, not to mention completely stopping the dividends as a result.

I think MLX is looking better since finally making the decision to get rid of the Nifty copper mine, to stop the heavy blood shed. What a name *Nifty*, yeah right 💩

Could be a good turn-around mining play...time will tell. If all goes well, who knows if they even bring the dividends back one day  

""

MLX has done a few things right lately and looks like the share price is heading in the right direction. They sold their Copper operations for a total of $60m which is not bad and they've cut their debt in half. Also reducing staff as they don't need people standing around for a Copper mine that was on care and maintenance.

Although price has pulled back a bit by the day's close, it looked like price was likely to breakout higher during the day. So I bought a few shares for this portfolio. Fundamentals point to a turnaround mining play and technical picture is half decent because I can't time a perfect breakout to buy into...




Open Portfolio:


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## qldfrog

aus_trader said:


> I've been keeping my eye on a turnaround mining play and it's no secret that I have made some recent posts about it including in the Potential Breakout Alerts! thread as well as stock specific MLX thread.
> 
> Research was done on MLX and looks like the worst is behind this mining stock which is probably the best asx listed Tin miner. However due to a Copper mining venture that became a headache for the company it's profitability and hence the share price has been hammered. I wrote a little background on the company in the breakout thread as per below:
> 
> ""
> Historically has done well with Tin. It's been a consistent dividend player in the past when it was a pure Tin play which I enjoyed in some yesteryear long ago.
> 
> Then they got greedy or didn't know what to do with all that profits pouring out of their Tin mine, so they ventured into a terrible Copper investment and had been heavily wounded, not to mention completely stopping the dividends as a result.
> 
> I think MLX is looking better since finally making the decision to get rid of the Nifty copper mine, to stop the heavy blood shed. What a name *Nifty*, yeah right 💩
> 
> Could be a good turn-around mining play...time will tell. If all goes well, who knows if they even bring the dividends back one day
> 
> ""
> 
> MLX has done a few things right lately and looks like the share price is heading in the right direction. They sold their Copper operations for a total of $60m which is not bad and they've cut their debt in half. Also reducing staff as they don't need people standing around for a Copper mine that was on care and maintenance.
> 
> Although price has pulled back a bit by the day's close, it looked like price was likely to breakout higher during the day. So I bought a few shares for this portfolio. Fundamentals point to a turnaround mining play and technical picture is half decent because I can't time a perfect breakout to buy into...
> 
> View attachment 123718
> 
> 
> Open Portfolio:
> View attachment 123719



Fwiw, has been selected by my systems and i owe


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## aus_trader

Got rammed by the brutal CGC sell down today with the huge gap down !



Other than the couple of dividends collected, nearly all open profits just fuken evaporated. Sold...

Closed:


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## barney

aus_trader said:


> Got rammed by the brutal CGC sell down today with the huge gap down !




Damn @aus_trader 

I hate seeing those drops on any chart. Had a couple of of very expensive ones myself over the years.

CGC seemed to have a reasonable year 2020 by the reports. What was the reason they got smashed so hard do you think?


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## aus_trader

barney said:


> Damn @aus_trader
> 
> I hate seeing those drops on any chart. Had a couple of of very expensive ones myself over the years.
> 
> CGC seemed to have a reasonable year 2020 by the reports. What was the reason they got smashed so hard do you think?



Beats me @barney, hence the frustration.

I actually thought the numbers were better than previous corresponding period. Other than one of the founders having passed away in the report, I couldn't see what the flaming sell off was about. Anyway this is a trading portfolio, so I have to cut and move on sadly.


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## Skate

barney said:


> CGC seemed to have a *reasonable year 2020* by the reports.





Skate said:


> *Overstaying your welcome*
> Staying too long in a trade is a recipe for disaster.




*Making money when trading*
In my experience, the timing of the exit is where the money is made. Cutting losing trades early is the secret of being a profitable trader. When a trade goes against you - how you handle the position will eventually decide how successful you will be as a trader. IMHO - the timing of your exit has to be the most important part of your trading strategy.

*The importance of an exit*
It’s important to remember the "EXIT" really "determines the final outcome" of a trade leading to the long-term success or failure of any trading strategy.



aus_trader said:


> Anyway this is a trading portfolio, so *I have to cut and move on sadly*.




***** happens*
@aus_trader no one knowingly puts themselves in harm's way but no matter how smart we are, or how hard we work, we will regularly be hit by developments that are unforeseen. Follow your own advice & move on to the next trade. Losing is part of the trading process, so take it on the chin & be the ‘best loser’ you can possibly be.

*Where I would have exited*
The chart below displays the entry & exit position for comparison purposes only. The "Ducati Blue Bar Strategy" is uncannily accurate with the turning points of a trend.




*Exits really matter*
I hope the chart helps you better understand the importance of a well-crafted exit strategy.

Skate.


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## qldfrog

Skate said:


> *Making money when trading*
> In my experience, the timing of the exit is where the money is made. Cutting losing trades early is the secret of being a profitable trader. When a trade goes against you - how you handle the position will eventually decide how successful you will be as a trader. IMHO - the timing of your exit has to be the most important part of your trading strategy.
> 
> *The importance of an exit*
> It’s important to remember the "EXIT" really "determines the final outcome" of a trade leading to the long-term success or failure of any trading strategy.
> 
> 
> 
> ***** happens*
> @aus_trader no one knowingly puts themselves in harm's way but no matter how smart we are, or how hard we work, we will regularly be hit by developments that are unforeseen. Follow your own advice & move on to the next trade. Losing is part of the trading process, so take it on the chin & be the ‘best loser’ you can possibly be.
> 
> *Where I would have exited*
> The chart below displays the entry & exit position for comparison purposes only. The "Ducati Blue Bar Strategy" is uncannily accurate with the turning points of a trend.
> 
> View attachment 125083
> 
> 
> *Exits really matter*
> I hope the chart helps you better understand the importance of a well-crafted exit strategy.
> 
> Skate.



Doubt it will comfort you but these last few weeks saw a couple of these falls hitting me seriously:
 bpt rrl as unexpected mini crash on non penny stocks outside systems..investor style.
Let's all check what our system say vs cgc and avoid a repeat
We should also acknowledge that while we remember these falls painfully, we tend to forget similar amount wins quickly 
**** happens. You will be OK 👍


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## bux2000

I think the question I have asked myself so many times since I started on my trading journey is .... will I ever get used to the fluctuations ?...... the profit /loss of a portfolio, at times I have told myself it is Monopoly money but that offers little solice as the ether evaporates. I wish I was bright enough to be able to come up with a system that helps, so am a little envious of those who can. 
I am not sure if lady luck is on my side or the vast amount of knowledge and experiences that I soak up here everyday day, but for the moment I cross my fingers blindly put my faith in putting into practice any information I can absorb. 
Not that I understand half of what I am reading, thank goodness for google search.

Thank you to everyone for posting your thoughts, experiences and reflections that help a bumbler like me.

All the best
bux


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## aus_trader

Gold stocks have been creeping up lately and who could blame the rise as the Gold price has been rising steadily. Only problem is finding stocks that have some substance and not just betting on a junior that may or may not hit some veins some day. Also I was scanning for the usual suspects in Goldies that have not run up as hard.

I've taken a position in a familiar stock to this portfolio, Alkane Resources Limited (ALK). It's as good as a pure Gold play that you can get, now that it has spun off it's Rare Earth assets to Australian Strategic Materials Ltd (ASM) which we have participated in this portfolio.

Alkane is one of the very few stocks that has been able to find a new deposit of late with it's Boda discovery. It just goes to show how hard it is to find anything of scale despite hundreds of juniors looking for one. Boda is revealing to be be something decent with continued drilling by Alkane, it's been mentioned in the peer Gold stock presentations.



Open Portfolio:


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## aus_trader

For those of us prepared to take on a bit more risk than buying local Gold miners like ALK which was our last bought stock, we have to venture out half way around the world. There lies an exciting Gold junior along with a world class, fully permitted Lithium project that is to be spun off into a separate company to unlock value sometime in the future. 

We need to go Mali in Africa to find this resource junior, Firefinch Ltd (FFX). Let me correct that sentence and say it is now officially a Gold mining Junior as it has just poured it's first Gold from it's Morilla Gold mine. With 2.3Moz of Gold inventory in resources this is also a very long life Gold miner that's just getting started, the type of stock that has merit to sit on this portfolio. I will let the numbers speak for themselves:



Operations are planned to ramp up once full scale mining operations ramp up, just the size of the ball mill can sardine in a lot of humans...



OK I am going to sound like late night Telemarketing Informercials: Wait that's not all, you are going to get more...

A ready to market Li project that will be de-merged from the company where we'll be given priority to buy shares via a pro-rata scheme according to the company.



Just to summarise the company and their operations, found this recent video presentation from the Managing Director.


From the portfolio, a nice dividend was received for holding junior FinTech stock EPY, which was a bit of a surprise for me. Thanks and keep them coming...   

Open Portfolio:


----------



## Beaches

*Firefinch Ltd (FFX)*

Great company with a very good mine and bonus lithium deposit. Current market cap is only $300mil.

_“We have a projected production profile of 50-60,000oz this year, 120,000oz next year, 170,000oz in 2023, and 200,000oz in 2024,” says Anderson (Managing Director)._​
The risk and the likely reason for the big price discount (despite the bonus steak knives) is the political situation which escalated again on 24 May.

In Brief​_Three members of Mali's civilian transitional leadership, including the president and prime minister, were arrested by the army following a government reshuffle in late May, only seven months after an 18-month transitional government was formed, following a coup in August 2020. Short-term political uncertainty will prevail, the military will maintain a central role in the political landscape, and the security situation will remain dire. _​

_Mali plunged back into crisis on Monday (24 May) when military officers detained the interim president, prime minister and defence minister, derailing a transition back to civilian rule after last year's coup._​​_The latest events threaten to exacerbate instability in the West African country where violent Islamist groups linked to al Qaeda and Islamic State control large areas of the north and centre. Following are details on the origins of the crisis and the risks it poses to the region._​​_WHAT HAPPENED?_​_President Bah Ndaw, Prime Minister Moctar Ouane and Defence Minister Souleymane Doucoure were taken to a military base outside the capital Bamako, hours after two members of the military lost their positions in a government reshuffle._​​_Ndaw, a retired colonel, was sworn in as interim president in September after President Ibrahim Boubacar Keita was overthrown by the military the previous month. He was tasked with leading an 18-month transition to new elections._​​_He has faced a difficult balancing act, with various political factions and the leaders of the coup against Keita all jockeying for political influence._​​_WHY DID THE MILITARY DO IT?_​_The military's ultimate goal was not immediately clear, but its actions came after two of the leaders of last year's coup, Sadio Camara and Modibo Kone, lost their posts as defence and security minister in a government reshuffle._​​_A senior former Malian government official told Reuters that the sacking of Camara and Kone was "an enormous misjudgment" and that the military's actions were probably aimed at restoring them to their posts._​​_WHY ARE MALI'S NEIGHBOURS AND ALLIES WORRIED?_​_Mali's international partners are concerned about the implications for regional security. Groups linked to al Qaeda and Islamic State are based in Mali and have taken advantage of previous bouts of political instability._​​_After a coup in 2012 ousted then-President Amadou Toumani Toure, al Qaeda-linked insurgents exploited a power vacuum to seize Mali’s desert north._​​_Since then, international powers, led by France, have deployed thousands of troops and spent billions of dollars to try to stabilise the country. But they have had little success as the Islamists continue to carry out regular attacks on the army and civilians. They also use Mali as a launch pad for attacks in neighbouring countries like Niger and Burkina Faso._​​_European leaders worry that prolonged regional instability could see more people displaced, fuelling another wave of migration to their shores._​​_








						Factbox: Why Mali is in turmoil again
					

Mali plunged back into crisis on Monday when military officers detained the interim president, prime minister and defence minister, derailing a transition back to civilian rule after last year's coup.




					www.reuters.com
				



_​

If the political situation can be stabilised the share price will very quickly be multiples of the current price. If the deposits were in Aus, the market cap would be 5 times the current $300mil. Definitely a high risk, high reward play.

aus_trader I dont want to hijack your thread, if you would rather this posted in the FFX thread I can ask Joe to move it
​


----------



## aus_trader

Beaches said:


> *Firefinch Ltd (FFX)*
> 
> Great company with a very good mine and bonus lithium deposit. Current market cap is only $300mil.
> 
> _“We have a projected production profile of 50-60,000oz this year, 120,000oz next year, 170,000oz in 2023, and 200,000oz in 2024,” says Anderson (Managing Director)._​
> The risk and the likely reason for the big price discount (despite the bonus steak knives) is the political situation which escalated again on 24 May.
> 
> In Brief​_Three members of Mali's civilian transitional leadership, including the president and prime minister, were arrested by the army following a government reshuffle in late May, only seven months after an 18-month transitional government was formed, following a coup in August 2020. Short-term political uncertainty will prevail, the military will maintain a central role in the political landscape, and the security situation will remain dire. _​
> 
> _Mali plunged back into crisis on Monday (24 May) when military officers detained the interim president, prime minister and defence minister, derailing a transition back to civilian rule after last year's coup._​​_The latest events threaten to exacerbate instability in the West African country where violent Islamist groups linked to al Qaeda and Islamic State control large areas of the north and centre. Following are details on the origins of the crisis and the risks it poses to the region._​​_WHAT HAPPENED?_​_President Bah Ndaw, Prime Minister Moctar Ouane and Defence Minister Souleymane Doucoure were taken to a military base outside the capital Bamako, hours after two members of the military lost their positions in a government reshuffle._​​_Ndaw, a retired colonel, was sworn in as interim president in September after President Ibrahim Boubacar Keita was overthrown by the military the previous month. He was tasked with leading an 18-month transition to new elections._​​_He has faced a difficult balancing act, with various political factions and the leaders of the coup against Keita all jockeying for political influence._​​_WHY DID THE MILITARY DO IT?_​_The military's ultimate goal was not immediately clear, but its actions came after two of the leaders of last year's coup, Sadio Camara and Modibo Kone, lost their posts as defence and security minister in a government reshuffle._​​_A senior former Malian government official told Reuters that the sacking of Camara and Kone was "an enormous misjudgment" and that the military's actions were probably aimed at restoring them to their posts._​​_WHY ARE MALI'S NEIGHBOURS AND ALLIES WORRIED?_​_Mali's international partners are concerned about the implications for regional security. Groups linked to al Qaeda and Islamic State are based in Mali and have taken advantage of previous bouts of political instability._​​_After a coup in 2012 ousted then-President Amadou Toumani Toure, al Qaeda-linked insurgents exploited a power vacuum to seize Mali’s desert north._​​_Since then, international powers, led by France, have deployed thousands of troops and spent billions of dollars to try to stabilise the country. But they have had little success as the Islamists continue to carry out regular attacks on the army and civilians. They also use Mali as a launch pad for attacks in neighbouring countries like Niger and Burkina Faso._​​_European leaders worry that prolonged regional instability could see more people displaced, fuelling another wave of migration to their shores._​​_
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> Factbox: Why Mali is in turmoil again
> 
> 
> Mali plunged back into crisis on Monday when military officers detained the interim president, prime minister and defence minister, derailing a transition back to civilian rule after last year's coup.
> 
> 
> 
> 
> www.reuters.com
> 
> 
> 
> 
> _​
> 
> If the political situation can be stabilised the share price will very quickly be multiples of the current price. If the deposits were in Aus, the market cap would be 5 times the current $300mil. Definitely a high risk, high reward play.
> 
> aus_trader I dont want to hijack your thread, if you would rather this posted in the FFX thread I can ask Joe to move it
> ​



You've gone to further detail as to why I mentioned this is a higher risk Gold play due to the jurisdictions where the deposit and mining operations reside. But in a portfolio of stocks such as this, I am willing to put some capital into it as it has potential to outperform other holdings based on my research. Definitely not one to bet the farm on, as it's a high risk / high reward speculation !

Great information, thanks for sharing on this thread @Beaches . Please feel free to re-post in the FFX thread as well as there may not be that many ASF members who read this thread.


----------



## qldfrog

Beaches said:


> *Firefinch Ltd (FFX)*
> 
> Great company with a very good mine and bonus lithium deposit. Current market cap is only $300mil.
> 
> _“We have a projected production profile of 50-60,000oz this year, 120,000oz next year, 170,000oz in 2023, and 200,000oz in 2024,” says Anderson (Managing Director)._​
> The risk and the likely reason for the big price discount (despite the bonus steak knives) is the political situation which escalated again on 24 May.
> 
> In Brief​_Three members of Mali's civilian transitional leadership, including the president and prime minister, were arrested by the army following a government reshuffle in late May, only seven months after an 18-month transitional government was formed, following a coup in August 2020. Short-term political uncertainty will prevail, the military will maintain a central role in the political landscape, and the security situation will remain dire. _​
> 
> _Mali plunged back into crisis on Monday (24 May) when military officers detained the interim president, prime minister and defence minister, derailing a transition back to civilian rule after last year's coup._​​_The latest events threaten to exacerbate instability in the West African country where violent Islamist groups linked to al Qaeda and Islamic State control large areas of the north and centre. Following are details on the origins of the crisis and the risks it poses to the region._​​_WHAT HAPPENED?_​_President Bah Ndaw, Prime Minister Moctar Ouane and Defence Minister Souleymane Doucoure were taken to a military base outside the capital Bamako, hours after two members of the military lost their positions in a government reshuffle._​​_Ndaw, a retired colonel, was sworn in as interim president in September after President Ibrahim Boubacar Keita was overthrown by the military the previous month. He was tasked with leading an 18-month transition to new elections._​​_He has faced a difficult balancing act, with various political factions and the leaders of the coup against Keita all jockeying for political influence._​​_WHY DID THE MILITARY DO IT?_​_The military's ultimate goal was not immediately clear, but its actions came after two of the leaders of last year's coup, Sadio Camara and Modibo Kone, lost their posts as defence and security minister in a government reshuffle._​​_A senior former Malian government official told Reuters that the sacking of Camara and Kone was "an enormous misjudgment" and that the military's actions were probably aimed at restoring them to their posts._​​_WHY ARE MALI'S NEIGHBOURS AND ALLIES WORRIED?_​_Mali's international partners are concerned about the implications for regional security. Groups linked to al Qaeda and Islamic State are based in Mali and have taken advantage of previous bouts of political instability._​​_After a coup in 2012 ousted then-President Amadou Toumani Toure, al Qaeda-linked insurgents exploited a power vacuum to seize Mali’s desert north._​​_Since then, international powers, led by France, have deployed thousands of troops and spent billions of dollars to try to stabilise the country. But they have had little success as the Islamists continue to carry out regular attacks on the army and civilians. They also use Mali as a launch pad for attacks in neighbouring countries like Niger and Burkina Faso._​​_European leaders worry that prolonged regional instability could see more people displaced, fuelling another wave of migration to their shores._​​_
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> Factbox: Why Mali is in turmoil again
> 
> 
> Mali plunged back into crisis on Monday when military officers detained the interim president, prime minister and defence minister, derailing a transition back to civilian rule after last year's coup.
> 
> 
> 
> 
> www.reuters.com
> 
> 
> 
> 
> _​
> 
> If the political situation can be stabilised the share price will very quickly be multiples of the current price. If the deposits were in Aus, the market cap would be 5 times the current $300mil. Definitely a high risk, high reward play.
> 
> aus_trader I dont want to hijack your thread, if you would rather this posted in the FFX thread I can ask Joe to move it
> ​



Guys, just be aware mali burkina faso are similar to Afghanistan with the taliban wonning, france army is currently disengaging and leaving the place.no new mine there in the coming decades or even exploration possible..my opinion


----------



## aus_trader

qldfrog said:


> Guys, just be aware mali burkina faso are similar to Afghanistan with the taliban wonning, france army is currently disengaging and leaving the place.no new mine there in the coming decades or even exploration possible..my opinion



From what I read the company is pretty engaged with the local Govt and provide jobs and funding for locals. I think that can make a difference in terms of being able to stay on and continue operations...




It's not just in Africa, it can happen in our front yard as well, in Papua (PNG) to be more precise. I know big mines such as Lihir owned by Australia's biggest Gold miner Newcrest is still pushing along but some of the smaller exploration companies have been screwed over when trying to do business there. Once millions have been spent and a nice resource with robust economics have been defined, ready to mine the local Govt and landowners will confiscate the entire asset and simply tell the Aussies to FUK off.

How cool is that ? There's no arguments, there's no law to deal with (local Govt is the law), there's no compensation for tens or hundreds of millions spent to explore and define a huge deposit, just suck it up and go emptyhanded and declare bankruptcy on the asx so the shareholders get nothing for their hard earnt. I don't know the finer details of where such deals go wrong but if you are not working with the locals and adding value to the community, I think they can show who's the boss. It's happened to multiple explorers in multiple countries over the years, PNG was just one example that is closest to us Aussies.


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## qldfrog

aus_trader said:


> From what I read the company is pretty engaged with the local Govt and provide jobs and funding for locals. I think that can make a difference in terms of being able to stay on and continue operations...
> 
> View attachment 125848
> 
> 
> It's not just in Africa, it can happen in our front yard as well, in Papua (PNG) to be more precise. I know big mines such as Lihir owned by Australia's biggest Gold miner Newcrest is still pushing along but some of the smaller exploration companies have been screwed over when trying to do business there. Once millions have been spent and a nice resource with robust economics have been defined, ready to mine the local Govt and landowners will confiscate the entire asset and simply tell the Aussies to FUK off.
> 
> How cool is that ? There's no arguments, there's no law to deal with (local Govt is the law), there's no compensation for tens or hundreds of millions spent to explore and define a huge deposit, just suck it up and go emptyhanded and declare bankruptcy on the asx so the shareholders get nothing for their hard earnt. I don't know the finer details of where such deals go wrong but if you are not working with the locals and adding value to the community, I think they can show who's the boss. It's happened to multiple explorers in multiple countries over the years, PNG was just one example that is closest to us Aussies.



I still believe the above is very much an Australian thinking in place:
I genuinely wish you well:
please search about:
Mali and the local IS jihadist branch
And Burkina Faso:








						At least 138 killed in 'horrific' massacre on civilians in Burkina Faso's north
					

The death toll from the worst militant attack in Burkina Faso in recent years has risen to 138, the government said after armed assailants laid siege overnight to a village in the jihadist-plagued north-east.




					www.sbs.com.au
				



all this in the last weeks:








						West Africa's Islamist insurgency: Fight at a critical stage
					

The multinational effort to stave off an encroaching takeover by Islamist militants faces severe challenges.



					www.bbc.com
				




Mali is the base for the IS jihadists, and they do not want schools, trees or wells ...just infidels blood...
I am well aware of the local situation as I declined to be sent there for a contracting role in a (different) international Gold miner
 a couple of years ago; less than a week later , one of their armed convoys was attacked and annihilated
massacres are weekly, this is NOT PNG
PNG or Salomon islands/Timor are kid's play compared ...
The key here is that:
France is pulling out officially or not (Operation Barkhane)  after far too many losses for no gain
and very strong opposition from France's population as we have enough of these very same fighters on the mainland without fighting them in the sands of Africa
So all that northern part is going to fall to IS
So please DYOR, look at maps and BBC, al jazera, etc


Anyway, when people are rising auctions on thin air or jpeg images, you might be on a winner.
But this is lottery, not investing after if it rises or falls, we will find logical explanation
Can I short it? ;-)
I will stop there.Let's rejoin the thread


----------



## aus_trader

qldfrog said:


> I still believe the above is very much an Australian thinking in place:
> I genuinely wish you well:
> please search about:
> Mali and the local IS jihadist branch
> And Burkina Faso:
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> At least 138 killed in 'horrific' massacre on civilians in Burkina Faso's north
> 
> 
> The death toll from the worst militant attack in Burkina Faso in recent years has risen to 138, the government said after armed assailants laid siege overnight to a village in the jihadist-plagued north-east.
> 
> 
> 
> 
> www.sbs.com.au
> 
> 
> 
> 
> all this in the last weeks:
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> West Africa's Islamist insurgency: Fight at a critical stage
> 
> 
> The multinational effort to stave off an encroaching takeover by Islamist militants faces severe challenges.
> 
> 
> 
> www.bbc.com
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> Mali is the base for the IS jihadists, and they do not want schools, trees or wells ...just infidels blood...
> I am well aware of the local situation as I declined to be sent there for a contracting role in a (different) international Gold miner
> a couple of years ago; less than a week later , one of their armed convoys was attacked and annihilated
> massacres are weekly, this is NOT PNG
> PNG or Salomon islands/Timor are kid's play compared ...
> The key here is that:
> France is pulling out officially or not (Operation Barkhane)  after far too many losses for no gain
> and very strong opposition from France's population as we have enough of these very same fighters on the mainland without fighting them in the sands of Africa
> So all that northern part is going to fall to IS
> So please DYOR, look at maps and BBC, al jazera, etc
> 
> 
> Anyway, when people are rising auctions on thin air or jpeg images, you might be on a winner.
> But this is lottery, not investing after if it rises or falls, we will find logical explanation
> Can I short it? ;-)
> I will stop there.Let's rejoin the thread



Yeah, looks more riskier than my initial assessment in terms of the location of the asset, not the asset itself which would be really undervalued if it happened to exist in Australia.

I will be keeping a very close eye on this even daily monitoring of any adverse developments to the mining operations, further escalation of the political situation etc. Any hiccups, I will be willing to sell and get out.


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## aus_trader

Took profits on half of the FFX position as the price gapped up due to a funding announcement today. Will update portfolio later...


----------



## qldfrog

aus_trader said:


> Took profits on half of the FFX position as the price gapped up due to a funding announcement today. Will update portfolio later...



Good...


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## aus_trader

Updated the closed positions for 1/2 of FFX:

Closed Positions:



Still hold 1100 shares.


----------



## aus_trader

Due to price falling back consecutively, sold MLX from portfolio.

Closed:


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## over9k

You benchmarking yourself against anything @aus_trader ?


----------



## aus_trader

over9k said:


> You benchmarking yourself against anything @aus_trader ?



Probably not benchmarking, but I do monitor the stocks in the portfolio and how they are performing.


----------



## over9k

It'd be a good idea to benchmark yourself against some kind of index ETF. You're just spinning your wheels if you're not beating the market. 

(Not trying to be abrasive or anything, data shows us that most traders don't beat the market)


----------



## aus_trader

We've been through quite a few energy themes with the picks in this portfolio such as Oil, Uranium and renewables. Times could be changing and we need to adopt the strategies to target new themes developing in recent times.

My research has taken me to the latest trend in renewable energy. It's not just wind, solar or some geothermal form. It's hydrogen production from renewables such as solar and wind. There are a few candidates I've read up on that's in this space listed on the asx.

This industry is in it's infancy, so I didn't have to look for a low priced underdog due to prime stocks hitting billion dollar market caps. I've decided to go for the stock that is in the prime land holding position out of all of them. We are talking Carnarvon region of Western Australia which is blessed with the best conditions for this type of project anywhere in the country. 




So in terms of location globally, what we have in this part of WA is world class for a zero carbon hydrogen project.




Memorandum of Understanding (MOU) already in place with 50-50 Joint Venture (JV) with Total Eren.




Current progress of this asx small cap stock: Province Resources Ltd (PRL)...



Open Portfolio:


_Note: _1/2 of FFX position has been sold for a profit.


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## qldfrog

Would go well with my ammonia thread.


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## aus_trader

CSR was sold on Friday. The two dividends received during holding period was really nice adding to the share price gain.

Closed positions:


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## aus_trader

Our latest pick PRL could be in the right area of investing at this point in time and not just a pie in the sky hopeful.

There is significant money flowing into this type of projects and I happen to come across a couple of articles that was just published:











						World's biggest green energy hub proposed for south coast of WA
					

The 15,000 square kilometre renewable energy hub planned for the south coast of Western Australia could produce up to 50 gigawatts of power.




					www.abc.net.au
				








			Green Energy: ‘World’s biggest’ $100 billion green hydrogen project proposed for WA


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## aus_trader

Some things have changed forever in recent times and these include more people working from home, increase in online shopping and taking personal hygiene such as hand sanitisation/washing to a whole new level. It's these type of new themes that I am really interested in to bring to this portfolio because I think the pandemic recovery stocks have probably had their share price rises already, some of which we benefited and profited from in this portfolio.

Working from home theme has really cemented itself as something that's going to stay long term even if the whole world was to rid itself of the virus. I have seen many businesses adopt this model and I work with a lot of people from all type of industries and it was remarkable to see the transformation that has happened over the last year. Other than building, mining, healthcare and service industries where people had to get to their work site to perform their duties a lot of the office related jobs have been transformed to work from home models.

I think employees and bosses have seen the win-win scenario that it has created. Workers are able to save time and fuel travelling to work which could be in a city center far from home. They can also be close to family and be with them as soon as you clock off from work. Bosses are able to save money by downsizing office space which tend to be quite expensive wherever it's located especially if it's in a city tower. So instead of having 5 floors of a city tower to run the company, now it could do it by occupying just 1 floor level. So overall time and money saved, productivity up (KPI's at highest levels) and improved health and wellbeing due to lower stress levels stuck in peak hour congestion or crowded in public transport, which works a treat if the virus is around.

So I thought this is the perfect time to invest in XYZ commercial office building fund that should see it's share price go through the roof ! 

I've been researching in all parts of the asx from spec end to the blue chips but it's not easy to find the right candidates to invest in that is uniquely positioned for the new world. Some I've come across might do OK well into the future, but 'might do OK' doesn't cut it for this portfolio.

Then I got thinking... How have companies transformed themselves so quickly from doing everything in-house ? How are the companies that are crushing it now than ever before able to attract the talent and skills to get things done so quickly ? When diverse skillsets are required in such a fast changing business landscape how are they getting the candidates so fast when the skilled migration is nearly dead ?

Successful firms are thriving in this environment are not doing it the old fashioned way. While the competition is struggling to survive, the pioneers of the new world are outsourcing from all over the planet. That's the key differentiator, they are bringing the skills of freelancers from all over the world to adapt their business to the fast changing environment.

So the latest addition to this portfolio is 'Freelancer Ltd' (FLN). I've looked at this company before and on each occasion the stars had not aligned. It was too far off getting to profitability or it's US competitors were steam rolling all over the Aussie firm 🚂

FLN is at an inflection point where the stars have lined up and it's taking on some of the biggest jobs it's ever taken, we are talking big US giants like NASA. No jokes, this Aussie firm has been helping NASA with complex projects and providing big cost savings to NASA as well:




The list of FLN top customers is mind boggling, we are talking the biggest companies in the world like Amazon, Microsoft, Facebook, Airbus etc.




Put it this way, since I looked at Freelancer as a Aussie firm starting to expand in the US last time, it has now truly gone global:




Their depth of service offering is amazing. It can be from a $30 logo design for the smallest startup to a $25 million joint contract to NASA (See letter from National Aeronautics and Space Admin aka NASA to Freelancer Sydney office informing they won the multi-million dollar tender for work):







On top of all of this, FLN also has the world's largest escrow business. Escrow.com was acquired by Freelancer in 2015 and it's become a must have for some of the biggest business and asset dealings for some of the biggest companies in the world. One of the biggest problems that arise when it comes to dealing with expensive and unique automobiles, collectibles and other transactions is security of payment and verification of goods delivery. This is where Escrow.com comes in:




It's used for big transactions, in fact you can't buy a vehicle through eBay motors in the US without transacting through Escrow.com.







Escrow.com client base is just as impressive:




If those two businesses wasn't enough, FLN also has a freight business for moving heavy expensive items such as for a lot of our miners in Australia:


----------



## aus_trader

FLN is likely to be accumulated by Ethical funds out there as it is already changing the lives of people in poor nations and aims to bring the living standard of people with very low incomes:








Open Portfolio:


----------



## Beaches

aus_trader said:


> I think employees and bosses have seen the win-win scenario that it has created. Workers are able to save time and fuel travelling to work which could be in a city center far from home. They can also be close to family and be with them as soon as you clock off from work. Bosses are able to save money by downsizing office space which tend to be quite expensive wherever it's located especially if it's in a city tower. So instead of having 5 floors of a city tower to run the company, now it could do it by occupying just 1 floor level. So overall time and money saved, productivity up (KPI's at highest levels) and improved health and wellbeing due to lower stress levels stuck in peak hour congestion or crowded in public transport, which works a treat if the virus is around.



The reduction of office space in the inner city is not the trend currently emerging. While there is considerable differences between companies and certainly a difference between private companies and government tenants .. the general trend is for similar sized office space.

Currently the most common model appears to be for a hybrid of X days working from home and Y days working from the office (2 home / 3 office or 1 home / 4 office are common themes). The designs being developed are allowing for lower peak people numbers but with greater space between workstations.

The above is only for Sydney inner city office space, based on the design briefs currently being put to Architectural firms and being submitted for DA approval. Although 3rd party reports out of Melbourne are telling a similar story.

I don't think the final model has been settled for either employees or companies and it will take a while yet.


----------



## qldfrog

Beaches said:


> The reduction of office space in the inner city is not the trend currently emerging. While there is considerable differences between companies and certainly a difference between private companies and government tenants .. the general trend is for similar sized office space.
> 
> Currently the most common model appears to be for a hybrid of X days working from home and Y days working from the office (2 home / 3 office or 1 home / 4 office are common themes). The designs being developed are allowing for lower peak people numbers but with greater space between workstations.
> 
> The above is only for Sydney inner city office space, based on the design briefs currently being put to Architectural firms and being submitted for DA approval. Although 3rd party reports out of Melbourne are telling a similar story.
> 
> I don't think the final model has been settled for either employees or companies and it will take a while yet.



WFH is not really new, i was WFH while consulting 15y ago ..
There was a forced push but the average big corporation do not like it, less control for middle manager, liability and kpi are only valid for easy to measure jobs while BS jobs which are a majority nowadays in PS and big corporations are hard to measure KPI.
My view is outsourcable jobs have had a boost ,but this will be also moved even more OS, and we will see a flow back to the city or just job cuts


----------



## aus_trader

Beaches said:


> The reduction of office space in the inner city is not the trend currently emerging. While there is considerable differences between companies and certainly a difference between private companies and government tenants .. the general trend is for similar sized office space.
> 
> Currently the most common model appears to be for a hybrid of X days working from home and Y days working from the office (2 home / 3 office or 1 home / 4 office are common themes). The designs being developed are allowing for lower peak people numbers but with greater space between workstations.
> 
> The above is only for Sydney inner city office space, based on the design briefs currently being put to Architectural firms and being submitted for DA approval. Although 3rd party reports out of Melbourne are telling a similar story.
> 
> I don't think the final model has been settled for either employees or companies and it will take a while yet.



Yes I've also seen part work from home / part come into the office scenarios for some office workers but the same level of full time occupancy and cubicle density will be unlikely to continue. I believe the tide has turned for good outsourcing is going full scale which is great for companies like FLN.

So just to clarify when I say outsourcing is going full scale I am not talking about putting a call center in India or Malaysia and run the rest of the operations from the CBD head office. I am talking a lot of the work itself such as design, customer support, advertising, web design/maintenance (Used to be done by the IT department), back office functions such as record keeping, backing up etc being outsourced. I think @qldfrog sees the same transformation that is taking place.


----------



## qldfrog

aus_trader said:


> Yes I've also seen part work from home / part come into the office scenarios for some office workers but the same level of full time occupancy and cubicle density will be unlikely to continue. I believe the tide has turned for good outsourcing is going full scale which is great for companies like FLN.
> 
> So just to clarify when I say outsourcing is going full scale I am not talking about putting a call center in India or Malaysia and run the rest of the operations from the CBD head office. I am talking a lot of the work itself such as design, customer support, advertising, web design/maintenance (Used to be done by the IT department), back office functions such as record keeping, backing up etc being outsourced. I think @qldfrog sees the same transformation that is taking place.



Sadly for the west, no difference between someone designing in bali mumbai or Sydney, so loss for Oz mid term


----------



## aus_trader

qldfrog said:


> Sadly for the west, no difference between someone designing in bali mumbai or Sydney, so loss for Oz mid term



Very true @qldfrog, it's sad that we will not have all the jobs to ourselves at any cost to companies in order to hire us !

However there is no turning back. I have seen this type of scenario play out in front of my own eyes in the manufacturing sector in Australia where I thought I had a 40-year career for life in Automotive manufacturing. We know what happened to that sector.

So this time it's the transformation of administrative/office jobs. Any job that could be done remotely will have to compete with the Global workforce as companies like FLN start offering the skilled talents of freelancers from around the globe to compete for the same job. 

It's a slow process as successful companies adapt and change and as rigid headstrong firms get priced out and disappear over time, but I think it's good to be aware of these global shifts taking place. I had tunnel vision back in the manufacturing days and even as the slow shift was happening all around me, that caused all Automotive manufacturing in Australia to move to overseas I decided to bury my head under the sand until being laid off one day. Could have re-trained or moved to another sector if I kept my eyes open


----------



## qldfrog

aus_trader said:


> Very true @qldfrog, it's sad that we will not have all the jobs to ourselves at any cost to companies in order to hire us !
> 
> However there is no turning back. I have seen this type of scenario play out in front of my own eyes in the manufacturing sector in Australia where I thought I had a 40-year career for life in Automotive manufacturing. We know what happened to that sector.
> 
> So this time it's the transformation of administrative/office jobs. Any job that could be done remotely will have to compete with the Global workforce as companies like FLN start offering the skilled talents of freelancers from around the globe to compete for the same job.
> 
> It's a slow process as successful companies adapt and change and as rigid headstrong firms get priced out and disappear over time, but I think it's good to be aware of these global shifts taking place. I had tunnel vision back in the manufacturing days and even as the slow shift was happening all around me, that caused all Automotive manufacturing in Australia to move to overseas I decided to bury my head under the sand until being laid off one day. Could have re-trained or moved to another sector if I kept my eyes open



Sure, but this has profund effects as we have basically priced ourselves out of every value added job, and with automatisation, there is not much leftno manufacturing, no office admin, retail, barista and taxi truck machinery drivers for a short time


----------



## aus_trader

qldfrog said:


> Sure, but this has profund effects as we have basically priced ourselves out of every value added job, and with automatisation, there is not much leftno manufacturing, no office admin, retail, barista and taxi truck machinery drivers for a short time



There will be completely different jobs that will arise due to the shift taking place however.

Things like automation engineering, robotics, design, CAD, photoshop, video editing, making movies/documentaries and a whole lot of other creative jobs cannot be replaced by automation or computers IMO.


----------



## qldfrog

aus_trader said:


> There will be completely different jobs that will arise due to the shift taking place however.
> 
> Things like automation engineering, robotics, design, CAD, photoshop, video editing, making movies/documentaries and a whole lot of other creative jobs cannot be replaced by automation or computers IMO.



But they can all be done os for cheaper


----------



## aus_trader

qldfrog said:


> But they can all be done os for cheaper



That's the scary part mate... 

We may have to be content with a lower pay.


----------



## aus_trader

Rather than looking out into the stock universe to find those rare candidates that could be further analysed, I decided to take a good look at the portfolio itself. Something that jumped out at me was the low proportion of dividend paying stocks currently held. In previous years, especially the last two years there was a lot of dividend stocks that were included as selections for this portfolio.

So is there something that I am doing differently ? Is there some fascination with the new kids on the block, those growth stocks with sky high valuations ? Have dividend stocks become old fashioned and boring ?

All are valid questions and the answers to the those questions are NO, NO and NO.

Dividend stocks are always a delight for me and even in this environment there is a couple of dividend paying stocks in the current portfolio. You see, it's not that I have actively neglected dividend paying stocks from my research, but dividend stocks themselves have become less attractive that I have looked for other themes that may produce better capital appreciation than taking the risk of holding the good old dividend paying blue chips where their margins are coming under pressure.

So I hope that answers the question about less dividend paying stocks currently in this portfolio but as and when stars align for the right dividend paying candidates to be included into this portfolio I will happily share my research such as with today's dividend stock bought for this portfolio, more about that later...

From what I see, there are seismic shifts happening and I am doing independent research that probably no one else is doing, not even the big research houses with huge teams of resources/analysts. I hope I can say that without being arrogant, because they are peddling the same old dinosaurs onto their clients and recommending to load up on the same old banks and yesterday's market darlings in most cases. In fact as most of you know I am as humble as pie and readily accept when I get my research wrong 

A recent example where I have not done the deep diving into stock research was when I bought CSR Limited (CSR) for this portfolio. I said CSR was selling sugar products at the supermarket as well as construction materials. When @Dona Ferentes and fellow members pointed out that there was no sugar business in CSR, I had to eat humble pie and accept that I made a mistake and promptly thanked you guys for pointing it out. Thankfully CSR was put into this portfolio at a opportune time when the building/housing boom 2.0 was going gangbusters. Hopefully some of you got to see the fastest residential real estate rise in our lifetime if you lived in the inner suburbs of a capital city, doubling or close to doubling from the start of the COVID (when the property market was in a slump) to now, depending on which suburb. So the good thing is even if I/you weren't fortunate enough to experience the direct wealth effect of owning property in the right pockets of the cities, we got to see a good share price appreciation along with chunky dividends from CSR thanks to it's building materials business riding on the back of this property boom.

Now to a little bit about declining dividend yields or unsustainable dividend payers which could be dividend traps waiting for unsuspecting investors and traders to sleep walk into. On the face of it, everything looks super rosy, in fact the share market is booming at all time highs:



So from the outside it's a shiny new car.  Fast as well, so could be a Lambo or Ferrari 🏎️

Although nothing too concerning to stop me from buying stocks, there is a slightly different story happening in the engine room where I spend most of the time. That's to do with the dividends. Basically except for a few stocks that are bucking the trend and increasing their dividends, most companies are having declining dividends. I am not talking about the inverse relationship of increasing share prices that is causing a decrease in dividend yields. I am saying the dividends themselves are being cut, which makes it difficult for me to find those great yielding opportunities with increasing dividends like I used to.

Now to today's dividend paying small cap that was purchased. It doesn't need any introductions, it's been well covered in this portfolio multiple times in the past. It's grown via acquisitions of smaller Law firms since we looked at it last time and it has the same story of bringing justice to wrongdoings with it's slogan "Right Wrong":



The name of the company has changed to Shine* Justice* Ltd (SHJ) to reflect what they do I suppose. The business itself is staying quite resilient to the current environment and the numbers show healthy growth with lower overheads:




As a result this is one of the companies that is able to increase it's dividends even in the current environment. Also it's from a healthy balance sheet, so in a sustainable way:




Being in the small end of the market, there is probably less coverage of this stock in the media and there is somewhat wide bid-ask spread, so I had to put my purchase order near the bottom of that range and wait for a long time to get filled. Just my 2c to be mindful of that and be patient if buying shares of this company. Every 2c saved could add up over time 😅

Open Portfolio:


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## aus_trader

So looking at the stock dumping on the half year results announcement from our current portfolio stock Freelancer Ltd (FLN). Was there something concerning ?  Should we be selling out and join in with the selling crowd ?

I actually saw the stock was down 15% during the day and easily could have chickened out and sold with the crowd. But I am slowly starting to put more faith in my research and move away from the herd mentality and stop what I used to do in my younger days and even at the start of this portfolio and that is to panic buy and panic sell.

I think when we come across stocks with the potential for decade long growth and when we find them early enough it's better to stick with it's longer term progress by at least holding a very small stake. I have many times come across great businesses in my analysis but have sold out due to declining price action or a short term hiccup in it's revenues losing the opportunity to stay on the business or to ever get back on at a later date.

So how can I still operate this rules based trading portfolio and still be able to have some shares in a company like FLN without being chopped up like a rodent in a minefield mousetrap field being whipsawed in and out of the portfolio over and over until all trading capital is gone and I have to close down this portfolio for good or till I keep working in the grave to build up some capital to speculate ?




Thankfully I had started a longer term portfolio Medium/Longer Term Stock Portfolio, where I can operate like the legendary share market legends like Peter Lynch and Warren Buffet. These guys are not perfect and they have made mistakes in their careers picking the wrong stocks but they have a longer term horizon to let the stocks with potential to realise it over time. There will be short term market gyrations and bumps along the road but they are not phased by that as they can see the inner workings of the company's progress.

Generally I am a sucker for picking up stocks in the earliest stages of it's lifespan but the great mentor Peter Lynch for example has made so many 10+ baggers picking up well known brands like Dell computer company, now called Dell Technologies Inc and L'eggs which sold woman's pantyhose back in the day and having being taken over still exist as a brand with multiple products making profits for the parent company:



He noticed and picked up Dell Computers when they were starting to appear in homes and businesses so by then it was a well known brand and his wife gave him the idea of looking into L'eggs when she talked about how easy and convenient it was to pick up a pair of woman's pantyhose at the supermarket with the weekly groceries or at the checkout at a convenience store without having to ever talk to a sales assistant back in the day when the company and it's sales were taking off...



I'll talk more about these investing legends and how we can apply some of their thinking to today's markets as we continue to look for opportunities in these portfolios over time.

So the plan is: if today's selloff in FLN turns into something bigger I will sell the stock out of this portfolio and realise a trading loss. However I will move the shares over to the longer term portfolio or keep a minimum holding for that portfolio. So in that case, the dog Freelancer Ltd (FLN) and it's flees Escrow.com and Freightlancer will all be moved over and kept without pressure to sell out in the short term until the company continues in it's current growth trajectory over the years or starts falling apart in which case I may lose faith and cut the loss.

Everyone is different and there are great traders out there who can trade in and out of a stock even if there are losses in the short term without losing hope or to get back in promptly if the price starts surging higher. Even though I keep watchlists, notes etc, I find it difficult to keep track once I am out of a stock and if the price starts surging on a stock that I want to be in I usually wait for a better entry and miss out altogether.

Let's look at today's numbers that was announced. The company made record revenues in all fronts and that is what attracted to me to this company in the first place. The company earns it's revenues in US$ however and as can be seen from the results, the AUD/USD currency headwinds dragged the results down, which is usually a short term effect as currencies move around...



Escrow.com is a major contributing factor to the overall growth this company is experiencing:




It's got the hallmarks of an early stage disruptor like finding a PayPal, Ebay (owns gumtree) or AirBnB before they go mainstream in the media and all the funds, ETF's and mom and pop's want to buy into them for their blue chip income/retirement portfolio someday.

Just for comparison these two businesses combined has a market cap of about 1/60th the size of one of the biggest stories of asx Afterpay Ltd (APT) that is yet to make a profit. Talk to anyone in the investing/speculating circles and they'll be talking about it. I reckon each of the two *main* businesses in FLN is a leader in their own areas and Escrow.com is just leaping ahead, which is something to think about... And unlike Afterpay that's going for small margins on their small purchase retail customers, Escrow.com gets paid for big transactions involving when a jumbo jet or private jet is sold from one owner to another or that luxury car or the Rolex watch is sold from one owner to another. How about making a commission on every car sold on eBay USA ? Food for thoughts...


----------



## qldfrog

My own uninformed view : trading or investing, you have to decide...
Mixing both will not work imho.
If trading,cut your losses, if investing,why even worry at a hipcup.


----------



## aus_trader

qldfrog said:


> My own uninformed view : trading or investing, you have to decide...
> Mixing both will not work imho.
> If trading,cut your losses, if investing,why even worry at a hipcup.



Great post @qldfrog and as always I value the opinion and guidance of other members.

So let me further explain what I was rambling on about with a chart of Freelancer Ltd (FLN) as an example in terms of being chopped up:




However, if I had done the research and have the conviction to hold through the volatility I would be happy to. But it would have to be in an appropriate portfolio where I am intentionally holding a stock through the various draw-downs and not changing a trading portfolio to bottom draw investing portfolio when things turn sour.

So looking at this trading portfolio, all will be sold in a share price declining situation including this one. Is there any stocks that I would hold with a long term view in this current trading portfolio and possibly be bought for the longer term portfolio?

Yes, only FLN would be held either as the current holding or partially sold minimum holding in the long term portfolio. And I love dividend paying stocks but we are talking local stocks with limited room to grow and dividends can be cut, so they'll only be traded.

This is a global business with two market leading positions in their respective categories each of which could become an Afterpay sized company. There's two of them, so we can even ignore any market cap contribution by the smaller businesses like freightlancer and newly acquired loadshift, which they are already integrating into the freight business:


----------



## Miner

aus_trader said:


> So looking at the stock dumping on the half year results announcement from our current portfolio stock Freelancer Ltd (FLN). Was there something concerning ?  Should we be selling out and join in with the selling crowd ?
> 
> I actually saw the stock was down 15% during the day and easily could have chickened out and sold with the crowd. But I am slowly starting to put more faith in my research and move away from the herd mentality and stop what I used to do in my younger days and even at the start of this portfolio and that is to panic buy and panic sell.
> 
> I think when we come across stocks with the potential for decade long growth and when we find them early enough it's better to stick with it's longer term progress by at least holding a very small stake. I have many times come across great businesses in my analysis but have sold out due to declining price action or a short term hiccup in it's revenues losing the opportunity to stay on the business or to ever get back on at a later date.
> 
> So how can I still operate this rules based trading portfolio and still be able to have some shares in a company like FLN without being chopped up like a rodent in a minefield mousetrap field being whipsawed in and out of the portfolio over and over until all trading capital is gone and I have to close down this portfolio for good or till I keep working in the grave to build up some capital to speculate ?
> 
> View attachment 128032
> 
> 
> Thankfully I had started a longer term portfolio Medium/Longer Term Stock Portfolio, where I can operate like the legendary share market legends like Peter Lynch and Warren Buffet. These guys are not perfect and they have made mistakes in their careers picking the wrong stocks but they have a longer term horizon to let the stocks with potential to realise it over time. There will be short term market gyrations and bumps along the road but they are not phased by that as they can see the inner workings of the company's progress.
> 
> Generally I am a sucker for picking up stocks in the earliest stages of it's lifespan but the great mentor Peter Lynch for example has made so many 10+ baggers picking up well known brands like Dell computer company, now called Dell Technologies Inc and L'eggs which sold woman's pantyhose back in the day and having being taken over still exist as a brand with multiple products making profits for the parent company:
> View attachment 128034
> 
> 
> He noticed and picked up Dell Computers when they were starting to appear in homes and businesses so by then it was a well known brand and his wife gave him the idea of looking into L'eggs when she talked about how easy and convenient it was to pick up a pair of woman's pantyhose at the supermarket with the weekly groceries or at the checkout at a convenience store without having to ever talk to a sales assistant back in the day when the company and it's sales were taking off...
> View attachment 128035
> 
> 
> I'll talk more about these investing legends and how we can apply some of their thinking to today's markets as we continue to look for opportunities in these portfolios over time.
> 
> So the plan is: if today's selloff in FLN turns into something bigger I will sell the stock out of this portfolio and realise a trading loss. However I will move the shares over to the longer term portfolio or keep a minimum holding for that portfolio. So in that case, the dog Freelancer Ltd (FLN) and it's flees Escrow.com and Freightlancer will all be moved over and kept without pressure to sell out in the short term until the company continues in it's current growth trajectory over the years or starts falling apart in which case I may lose faith and cut the loss.
> 
> Everyone is different and there are great traders out there who can trade in and out of a stock even if there are losses in the short term without losing hope or to get back in promptly if the price starts surging higher. Even though I keep watchlists, notes etc, I find it difficult to keep track once I am out of a stock and if the price starts surging on a stock that I want to be in I usually wait for a better entry and miss out altogether.
> 
> Let's look at today's numbers that was announced. The company made record revenues in all fronts and that is what attracted to me to this company in the first place. The company earns it's revenues in US$ however and as can be seen from the results, the AUD/USD currency headwinds dragged the results down, which is usually a short term effect as currencies move around...
> 
> View attachment 128036
> 
> Escrow.com is a major contributing factor to the overall growth this company is experiencing:
> 
> View attachment 128037
> 
> 
> It's got the hallmarks of an early stage disruptor like finding a PayPal, Ebay (owns gumtree) or AirBnB before they go mainstream in the media and all the funds, ETF's and mom and pop's want to buy into them for their blue chip income/retirement portfolio someday.
> 
> Just for comparison these two businesses combined has a market cap of about 1/60th the size of one of the biggest stories of asx Afterpay Ltd (APT) that is yet to make a profit. Talk to anyone in the investing/speculating circles and they'll be talking about it. I reckon each of the two *main* businesses in FLN is a leader in their own areas and Escrow.com is just leaping ahead, which is something to think about... And unlike Afterpay that's going for small margins on their small purchase retail customers, Escrow.com gets paid for big transactions involving when a jumbo jet or private jet is sold from one owner to another or that luxury car or the Rolex watch is sold from one owner to another. How about making a commission on every car sold on eBay USA ? Food for thoughts...
> 
> View attachment 128040



Excellent calm narrative.


----------



## qldfrog

aus_trader said:


> Great post @qldfrog and as always I value the opinion and guidance of other members.
> 
> So let me further explain what I was rambling on about with a chart of Freelancer Ltd (FLN) as an example in terms of being chopped up:
> 
> View attachment 128042
> 
> 
> However, if I had done the research and have the conviction to hold through the volatility I would be happy to. But it would have to be in an appropriate portfolio where I am intentionally holding a stock through the various draw-downs and not changing a trading portfolio to bottom draw investing portfolio when things turn sour.
> 
> So looking at this trading portfolio, all will be sold in a share price declining situation including this one. Is there any stocks that I would hold with a long term view in this current trading portfolio and possibly be bought for the longer term portfolio?
> 
> Yes, only FLN would be held either as the current holding or partially sold minimum holding in the long term portfolio. And I love dividend paying stocks but we are talking local stocks with limited room to grow and dividends can be cut, so they'll only be traded.
> 
> This is a global business with two market leading positions in their respective categories each of which could become an Afterpay sized company. There's two of them, so we can even ignore any market cap contribution by the smaller businesses like freightlancer and newly acquired loadshift, which they are already integrating into the freight business:
> 
> View attachment 128044
> 
> 
> View attachment 128045



fully agree, no issue on the business analysis,  but as part of the "Speculative portfolio" imho, it is an immediate sell ..or internal transfer to "aus_trader's WB trainroad" portfolio


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## qldfrog

qldfrog said:


> fully agree, no issue on the business analysis,  but as part of the "Speculative portfolio" imho, it is an immediate sell ..or internal transfer to "aus_trader's WB trainroad" portfolio



I would also add that in a more stable market with economy churning around, we could me more tolerant with these


----------



## qldfrog

qldfrog said:


> I would also add that in a more stable market with economy churning around, we could me more tolerant with these



anyway, I am badly placed to give any sort of recommendation considering my system performance this month


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## Sean K

qldfrog said:


> My own uninformed view : trading or investing, you have to decide...
> Mixing both will not work imho.
> If trading,cut your losses, if investing,why even worry at a hipcup.




I've done both for a very long time. It can work for some. Done better short term trading though.


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## aus_trader

kennas said:


> I've done both for a very long time. It can work for some. Done better short term trading though.



Yes it's good to do both if time and resources allow it.

So just to re-iterate this spec portfolio is a short to medium term trading portfolio and if the share price has a good run happy to hold for longer. However it cannot tolerate hiccups in the business and short term weakness in the share price. So that's one of the weaknesses of this portfolio because occasionally we come across stocks that are worthy of holding with a bit longer term horizon.

Great investing legends call them long term compounders and some examples include Warren Buffet's Coca Cola Company and Peter Lynch's stocks we talked about and many other well known multi-baggers like Ford Motors and General Electric that he invested in during his legendary performance as the portfolio manager of Magellan fund and later in his own private portfolios...


----------



## aus_trader

qldfrog said:


> fully agree, no issue on the business analysis,  but as part of the "Speculative portfolio" imho, it is an immediate sell ..or internal transfer to "aus_trader's WB trainroad" portfolio



Done, very sad to have a stock leave the portfolio so quickly for a loss, but as I mentioned yesterday I was looking to exit if I saw more selling pressure today for FLN.

Closed Positions:



Immediately bought a smaller minimal holding for the Medium/Longer Term Stock Portfolio which can be left alone to withstand draw downs of 50% or more on the share price without losing any sleep as long as the business is doing well and continuing to grow on a longer term basis.


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## aus_trader

We have a quiet achiever in this portfolio, it's a quiet achiever because the share price hasn't moved a penny while making good progress in the background. Lithium Australia NL (*LIT*)'s subsidiary is licensing Alkaline battery recycling process which is in addition to it's development of Li-Ion battery recycling that we have an interest in as a future company maker.

All is good as Alkaline batteries are plentiful in society and if the technology is developed and commercialised, it could become a nice revenue stream in the future. Multiple streams of revenue would certainly be better than one in it's distant future.


----------



## qldfrog

aus_trader said:


> We have a quiet achiever in this portfolio, it's a quiet achiever because the share price hasn't moved a penny while making good progress in the background. Lithium Australia NL (*LIT*)'s subsidiary is licensing Alkaline battery recycling process which is in addition to it's development of Li-Ion battery recycling that we have an interest in as a future company maker.
> 
> All is good as Alkaline batteries are plentiful in society and if the technology is developed and commercialised, it could become a nice revenue stream in the future. Multiple streams of revenue would certainly be better than one in it's distant future.
> 
> View attachment 128532



I added LIT a while back to the Frog investment portfolio with so far good outcomes indeed👍


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## aus_trader

qldfrog said:


> I added LIT a while back to the Frog investment portfolio with so far good outcomes indeed👍



Preferably this is a long term performer with great things to come  🤞 

Certainly trying to protect the technologies it's developing, more Patents filed today...


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## aus_trader

Further news out on LIT showing they have no problem getting funding for Research and Development of their technologies.

Also junior African Gold miner has been drilling day and night to prove up their reserves, now hitting 1million Oz


----------



## aus_trader

Interesting article with use of hydrogen in homes, which can be seen as a positive development to renewable energy stock PRL...











						Village becomes first in UK to burn HYDROGEN in boilers and hobs
					

Some 650 homes in Winlaton, near Gateshead, have been using hydrogen to power their boilers, cookers, hobs and fires.The trial is being run by Northern Gas Networks (NGN)




					www.dailymail.co.uk


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## aus_trader

Further development with PRL as per announcement:


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## aus_trader

I was keen to check out the ALK drill results after it came out of the trading halt. Initially was up but the market kept pushing the price down and I sold once I saw the prices was breaking to the downside. ALK was one of the Gold stocks on the asx that was bucking the trend while most were going down recently, but today I decided to let it go despite the slight bounce in Gold price.

Might be more developments to the Alkane story in terms of defining the Boda deposit, so will keep watch...

I am also keen to collaborate efforts to find ways to get better ROI on Gold stocks. Whether it's investing through the cycles (Gold spot price cycles or the company growth cycle) or to trade Gold stocks via some mechanical or systematic means are all possibilities. I am not the only one who struggles with Gold stocks, one of my mentors on this site (I consider anyone who has taught me invaluable lessons as my mentors) has also said he has struggled to conquer Gold stocks. 

The other Gold stock has confirmed it's going ahead with the spin out of it's Li asset and will give us priority via preference shares to the new Li company to be listed on the asx and be called Leo Lithium Ltd...




In other news, LIT was covered via a newsfeed recently:




LIT's recent battery stock spin out Charger Metals NL (CHR) has done really well since listing nearly quadrupling in price. We should be happy as we have an interest in those Charger Metals Li projects as well as an interest in another Li stock Galan Lithium Ltd (GLN) that has gone gangbusters lately:




So rather than having a sense of FOMO, we should...




Closed:


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## aus_trader

One of the negatives that has come out of the Covid and resulting restrictions and lockdowns is the increase in digital crime or cybersecurity threats...




Individuals, companies and even governments have been targeted. It's not just financial threats that are at play, there is also online scams, identity theft, fraud, access of sensitive information and stealing of Intellectual Property (IP).

So I've been deep diving through the asx labyrinth looking for companies that are combatting this threat, hopefully benefitting from the digital fight against the criminals. After all in this portfolio, we are looking for companies doing the freedom fight with the intention of making money not operating as a Not-For-Profit (NFP) firm. Came across a few but the one that is added to the portfolio is also the hardest to pronounce. I get my tongue twisted saying the name of the company, so you guys and girls can work out how to pronounce the latest addition to the spec portfolio: Archtis Ltd (AR9).

It was mainly in the business of cloud computing based secure storage but it's recent merger that just completed that got me interested in this stock. AR9 has merged with cybersecurity and sensitive information protection company "Neucleus Cyber" that will complement their product/service offering and add value to their customers.

Quarterly numbers are really good for the company:




Also being a small cap firm, it's producing quarter-on-quarter growth, which is nice to see:




Recurring revenue is from some of the long term customers like the Australian Defense:




Nucleus Cyber is contributing to the needs of companies to defend against the new cyber threats, below is an example of a biotech company that would do anything to protect their highly valuable IP and trade secrets:




Open Portfolio:


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## aus_trader

This reporting season has been a bit scary. Maybe some of the hidden financial stresses from the Covid affected companies are coming out this season, I also wrote in another thread...



aus_trader said:


> There's been a few landmines during this report season with big gap downs and huge falls in some stocks once the reporting was published on the market. Too many -ve surprises to mention as the reporting has been running for a while




We can't predict these nasty surprises in advance, so if we are spared from from being kicked in the nuts this reporting season, we really have to count our lucky stars... 🔱

Other than a flash crash on A2B, that's recovering back now, I think we've been spared in this portfolio.

I'll just highlight a few financial results without any editing from my part, just to know that things are going along nicely. Instead of my own commentary which could be biased, I'll let the slides and any charts do the talking...

EPY:




SHJ:







Chart gapped up after reporting and broke out before bulling back...





Our latest addition AR9:


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## aus_trader

This stock needs no introductions, we've been in and out of it just months earlier.

Based on the preliminary annual report, MLX rehabilitation seems complete. It's turned around from a big loss last year to a good profit this year...




We've had to endure a small loss from MLX earlier in the year when the trade didn't work out. But the reasons for buying is further supported by the company returning to profitability.

MLX has shed the heavy baggage it was carrying having sold the non core, loss making projects from it's portfolio. Back to it's profitable Tin mining operation in an environment where Tin price is doing really well...




I also mentioned that I was looking at buying the breakout in the MLX thread ( MLX - Metals X ), so was purchased just as it was doing so.

Open Portfolio:


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## aus_trader

Sometimes I visit some of the individual stock threads to get some inspiration to research stocks. Even then the best of the stock ideas don't get handed on a silver platter, it takes hard work and research to separate the wheat from the chaff.

So I'd like to acknowledge @frugal.rock for initially coming across today's portfolio addition. He is quite active in the small end of the market from what I've come across and usually I pass on a lot of those microcaps. But I read some comments on the HT8 thread recently and it looked like a company worth investigating further...

This profitable little small cap is a rare find in the online marketplace.  It is the Number 1 marketplace seller on Amazon Australia. Going by the user reviews, Harris Technology Group Ltd (HT8) is doing a great job of selling technology products to it's customers.




As most of you know, Amazon is in it's infancy in Australia and there is huge market expansion still ahead of us, below is a little history...




So as Amazon expands across the country, imagine the growth HT8 could experience over the coming years as it grows alongside Amazon and what if it expands while keeping number 1 status... 

BTW, HT8 is not limited to selling on the Amazon platform, it has it's sales channels spread across the main online marketplaces.




Financial summary shows the outstanding growth it's experiencing.




Although I came across this stock a few days ago as mentioned, it took me a while to look at the company in detail and I also wanted to see a little more convincing strength in the price action of it's shares. Today's move in share price with high volume was a good signal for me to purchase some shares for this portfolio.

Open Portfolio:


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## aus_trader

Tell you what, it hasn't been easy to batten down the hatches and keep the portfolio intact the last couple of weeks. Too many down days than up days and unfortunately two stocks have exited the portfolio: LIT and EPY.

Also it's not easy to find any themes to trade in the current environment. I have come across a couple which I would have considered purchasing in a more bullish overall market environment, but in the current environment will wait and see...

Closed:


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## peter2

As a person who enjoys reading the company news and trying to understand the potential for the business, surely you'd have a list of companies with great potential but perhaps the price is a little too high at the time you noticed them. A dip in the market like we're experiencing now should be a great time to start positions in some of these companies. 

btw. I'm loving the ratio of green to red in your P&L column.


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## aus_trader

peter2 said:


> As a person who enjoys reading the company news and trying to understand the potential for the business, surely you'd have a list of companies with great potential but perhaps the price is a little too high at the time you noticed them. A dip in the market like we're experiencing now should be a great time to start positions in some of these companies.
> 
> btw. I'm loving the ratio of green to red in your P&L column.



Yes there's a few that I have been watching and waiting for a better entry price on, so they might become more attractive. Also some of the stocks that has been sold may get re-purchased after reviewing their status: if it's just as good in terms of operations but prices are slashed, then why not I suppose.

Thanks Peter, long hours of stock research has paid off with some profits banked.


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## aus_trader

AR9 was sold at 29c, therefore exits this portfolio.

Also saw FFX doing a capital raising. Not sure if I'll participate, will have a read of the offer documents once I receive them and see...


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## aus_trader

Sold BOQ as well at $8.76.


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## aus_trader

It's been a crazy period with work towards the end of the year, didn't get any time to do some posting in ASF which I missed.

Hope to reduce work or to delegate or re-structure as current work hours are not sustainable...🧟‍♂️

Wish everyone a Happy 2022 !


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## aus_trader

I've had a tough period with work and other priorities in life since the start of the year, therefore was unable to attend to this portfolio.

Amongst the market decline happening now, the speculative portfolio is closed with the losses crystalised.

May look to trade again in favourable conditions again in the future...


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## aus_trader

Hope everyone is well.

Despite losses, better to take the funds out and keep for better times to trade I think...


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## aus_trader

Being really honest with the ASF community members, I am disappointed with being slow to liquidate the speculative portfolio in June. Gave back good gains in stocks like MLX and very bitter with myself for letting the losses get bigger on HT8 for example.

The market sell-off that occurred during the last couple of months, and being out of active trading for a short while has given me some time to think things through, before venturing back into stocks. I think the market will be more challenging as I don't believe we'll be blessed with a straight up Covid recovery type bull market anytime soon...

There may be up trending periods which would be nice to participate in, but whether they will be the beginnings of bull runs or bear market rallies will be hard to determine. So the point I am making is, I may have to be a bit more active in taking profits sooner when a stock has had a decent run. At least should lock in partial profits.

Also I will try and keep the commentary rather brief as I have less time these days to write those mini-thesis stock research that I used to post. I may briefly outline the reasons for entering a stock or jot down some bullet points. Also will just post the entry price at the time of purchase and just the % gain or % loss when the trade is closed to save time.

Therefore without any further waffle, I purchased American Rare Earths Ltd (ARR) shares at 27c to re-start the spec portfolio based on below reasons:

1. Aussie Rare Earths heavyweight Lynas Rare Earths Ltd (LYC) has broken the short term down-trend:



Hence assuming juniors like ARR will follow...

2. Continuation of China-America tensions. Given ARR assets reside in the American region, it could get re-rated as there is a push towards local sourcing of RE's...



3. Successful exploration continues...




Open Positions:


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## aus_trader

Took partial profits on ARR as the price surged over 20% today. 




It was pure luck that I got to sell near the top of the day's range, as I was busy during the day to look at the market and only had a brief chance to have a peek near the closing minutes. Caption of my trading account to show that I am not cherry picking favourable prices:




Took a short term trade on Costa Group Holdings Ltd (CGC) . Won't go into the fundamentals as I have done company analysis in the past, see post https://www.aussiestockforums.com/threads/speculative-stock-portfolio.33280/post-1074116

From a long term technical standpoint, price has found support around the same levels reached in March 2020 and bounced:




From a shorter term view, there is an Inverse Head & Shoulders pattern on the chart, which is considered bullish by technical analysts and traders that use chart patterns in their analysis:




Open Portfolio:



Closed Positions:


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## aus_trader

Bought Vital Metals Limited (VML) on Friday for this portfolio.

Was hoping to write a couple of lines over the weekend, but got too busy. Will do a quick update later on about VML...


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## aus_trader

After buying American Rare Earths Ltd (ARR) for this portfolio recently, I was on the lookout for another Rare Earth (RE) junior to add. There is several asx listed RE juniors around with presence in the local region, but I was researching for juniors with exposure to the neighbourhood in the Americas as in the case with ARR...

Vital Metals Limited (VML) has it's operations in Canada, so in the American neighbourhood. VML also has an excellent management team amongst the asx listed junior mining companies, who has managed to get the RE mining operation going in a very short time and now becoming the first RE producer in Canada...




Becoming a producer should put VML in the limelight in the US region as China-US tensions escalate due to Taiwan situation. US president Joe Biden is encouraging local production of critical minerals:




Open Portfolio:



Booked profits on short term trade in CGC. There could be further upside, but happy with the stock meeting the short term objective for the below reasons:

Price has exceeded the target height from peak of the head to neckline. Text book example of Target Price Projection for inverse Head and Shoulders pattern shown below:



Recent price gap filled/closed:




Caption from my trading account that shows trade exit:



Closed Positions:


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## aus_trader

Just pointing out a decimal place error on the VML share price, it was bought at 4.6c not at 46c ! Will correct the table, as I typed it in the early hours in the morning after midnight😴.


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## aus_trader

When you dig deep into certain sectors of the market, this year has been brutal ! One of the worst hit sectors is the FinTech, some stocks have had massive declines, as much as 80% in some cases. 🤕

A few have rallied hard in the recent few trading days. Looks more convincing with the bounce than a dead cat. 
Maybe the cat managed to climb on a pogo stick while falling...



So I decided to buy some shares of Tyro Payments Ltd (TYR) for this portfolio. I think Tyro is one of the more established players in this sector. Below is a quick summary of what they do...



I have even come across some small business that use the Tyro POS (Point of Sale) terminals, that look like these:




So I know it's a legit business, not a dot com internet hype. As Peter Lynch would say:




Being a down day on the asx, there was a sea of red across the watchlists. So it felt uncomfortable to purchase shares in anything. But I managed to pull the trigger on TYR...




Open Portfolio:


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## UMike

Owned a Restaurant.
Loved Tyro as it charged the Customer the Bank Fee and not the business. I saved $12k a year. Also kept the surplus Cash in their Banking System.
More and More businesses are using their system. Customer service is not to bad....

Stunned they have sunk this low. Would Love to buy more but have enough if they go up. Won't go broke if they fail.


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## aus_trader

@UMike, Great insight into TYR  as someone who actually used their services   

I think the payment provider may actually be preferred by the smaller businesses and start ups that wish to avoid paying the 1 - 2% fees charged by other payment suppliers.

I don't know how this trade will go, as the market is very volatile. But I may consider putting a long term position in TYR in the _Medium_/Longer _Term_ Stock _Portfolio_, an amount that I am willing to hold through any downturns and not worry.


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## aus_trader

Since the capital raising gap down, prices have gone down every single day for ARR. I thought it will consolidate around the capital raise price and slowly recover and fill the gap. Since it kept falling, I lost patience and got out of the ARR stock by selling the remaining position:




Have been monitoring the Uranium space for a while now, and decided to by some shares in Deep Yellow Limited (DYL). I have extensively covered the DYL story in the past and provided information as to why it's my 'go to' stock for U3O8 speculation on asx, headed by former Paladin Energy Ltd (PDN) CEO John Borshoff.




Open Portfolio:



Closed Positions:


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## aus_trader

Have taken quick profits on DYL by selling half the position. Will update portfolio table later when I get time...


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## aus_trader

Sold half of the shares in TYR:




Also congratulations to @UMike for being the runner up with the August Stock Tipping Competition tipping TYR: https://www.aussiestockforums.com/threads/august-2022-stock-competition-entries.37168/post-1190801

Hope the remaining shares for TYR sticks on, in this portfolio for some time... 🤞

As previously mentioned, TYR business model does not entirely rely on cheap credit, as it provides payment solutions for business especially small business with Point-Of-Sale (POS) terminals for taking credit/debit card payments. When we had the near-zero interest rates for the last few years, I was quite happy to frequently add Buy-Now-Pay-Later (BNPL) stocks to this portfolio as they thrived in a cheap credit environment.

I am sure you guys remember the mammoth of the BNPL space Afteray (APT) ? It had an epic share price increase before being acquired by US based payments company Square Inc. Below is a summary from Google:




Other than the banks that offer their payment solutions for businesses, as far as I can see there isn't a Square/Block Inc. equivalent on the asx, other than Tyro Payments Ltd (TYR). So TYR could be somewhat unique in that regard.

Closed Positions:


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## qldfrog

aus_trader said:


> Sold half of the shares in TYR:
> 
> View attachment 146208
> 
> 
> Also congratulations to @UMike for being the runner up with the August Stock Tipping Competition tipping TYR: https://www.aussiestockforums.com/threads/august-2022-stock-competition-entries.37168/post-1190801
> 
> Hope the remaining shares for TYR sticks on, in this portfolio for some time... 🤞
> 
> As previously mentioned, TYR business model does not entirely rely on cheap credit, as it provides payment solutions for business especially small business with Point-Of-Sale (POS) terminals for taking credit/debit card payments. When we had the near-zero interest rates for the last few years, I was quite happy to frequently add Buy-Now-Pay-Later (BNPL) stocks to this portfolio as they thrived in a cheap credit environment.
> 
> I am sure you guys remember the mammoth of the BNPL space Afteray (APT) ? It had an epic share price increase before being acquired by US based payments company Square Inc. Below is a summary from Google:
> 
> View attachment 146207
> 
> 
> Other than the banks that offer their payment solutions for businesses, as far as I can see there isn't a Square/Block Inc. equivalent on the asx, other than Tyro Payments Ltd (TYR). So TYR could be somewhat unique in that regard.
> 
> Closed Positions:
> View attachment 146210



Missed my TYR entry a week ago and still regretting it. Well done !!!


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## aus_trader

qldfrog said:


> Missed my TYR entry a week ago and still regretting it. Well done !!!



I know you have a systematic trading approach. TYR is pulling back along with just about everything else in the market at the moment, so keep an eye out to see if there is another entry once the pull back is done and there is potentially another rally...

Anyway guys, as I was saying market is tumbling across the board and I can't really see trading opportunities to populate this spec portfolio. However I can look for any stocks that I am happy to buy and hold for the long term...

I have traded this big dog in the past in this portfolio selling out for the next puppy, but I am going to hold some shares in the long term so tied him up in the kennel, details in the Medium/_Longer_ _Term_ Stock Portfolio.


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## qldfrog

aus_trader said:


> I know you have a systematic trading approach. TYR is pulling back along with just about everything else in the market at the moment, so keep an eye out to see if there is another entry once the pull back is done and there is potentially another rally...
> 
> Anyway guys, as I was saying market is tumbling across the board and I can't really see trading opportunities to populate this spec portfolio. However I can look for any stocks that I am happy to buy and hold for the long term...
> 
> I have traded this big dog in the past in this portfolio selling out for the next puppy, but I am going to hold some shares in the long term so tied him up in the kennel, details in the Medium/_Longer_ _Term_ Stock Portfolio.



That attempt was discretionary 😊


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## aus_trader

As you guys know Tyro Payments Ltd (TYR) has received a Take Over bid. That will put a ceiling on the share price for the time being unless a superior bid comes along. The Private Equity firm may even nudge a few shareholders to let go of their shares but according to directors the company will stay intact and listed on the asx...



caption from article...


time will tell... Will be keeping an eye as I still have part of the position bought for this portfolio in TYR.

Silver price has declined quite a bit and showing signs of recovery in the last few days. Bought a junior Lead/Silver stock for this portfolio Boab Metals Ltd (BML)., below is a quick glance at the company:




Also, a short-term trade was made on Service Stream Limited (SSM), see below for technical reasoning...




With short-term setups, I usually don't get to do in-depth company analysis. Share price has had a massive decline since the start of Covid and unlike a lot of the other companies, share price hasn't recovered in a V shape, in fact languishing at the lows. However, this year's revenues have gone beast mode after declining last year:




Purchases:


SSM was bought on the go in another account with a mobile app, while driving in between jobs. I promise that I stopped on a service lane to execute the order, putting no fellow Aussies at risk.




Open Portfolio:


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## peter2

*TYR* has received an offer, that they've rejected. This sort of offer won't cap the price, if anything the price may go higher (as it's started to) as the market anticipates that a higher offer will have to be made.


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## aus_trader

peter2 said:


> *TYR* has received an offer, that they've rejected. This sort of offer won't cap the price, if anything the price may go higher (as it's started to) as the market anticipates that a higher offer will have to be made.



Thank you @peter2 for that insight. Will be holding tight for the remaining portion...


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## aus_trader

Tough trading environment at the moment, VML has been closed at a loss.


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## aus_trader

Another one bites the dust ! Not even precious metals are holding up in this market... 




Closed Positions:


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## aus_trader

Portfolio liquidated except for partial position in TYR that is under a takeover offer.






Closed Positions:



We shall employ a similar approach when we re-populate the portfolio once the trading conditions become favourable again.

In other words, we shall look into taking some partial profits if there is a good price appreciation on a stock. Having some profits locked-in, the remaining position can be given a lot more wiggle room in an attempt to catch a few longer-term winners.


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## aus_trader

Markets having a ripper rally over the last couple of days, both here and in the US. Could be another bear market rally but decided to deploy some cash on a couple of stocks to re-populate this portfolio.







Open Portfolio:


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## aus_trader

The intention of the portfolio is to latch onto longer term trends to hitch a ride. But at the moment it's not happening, and it's been lucky that some trades exited with a profit due to bear market rallies this year.

Today exited another losing trade closing LPM position. It was moving up for a few days... then WHAK !




Closed Trades:


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## KevinBB

What lookback period do you use for your "longer term trends"? Maybe its a bit too short?

Chart of LPM, daily bars, 6 months. Source NABTrade.



KH


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## aus_trader

KevinBB said:


> What lookback period do you use for your "longer term trends"? Maybe its a bit too short?
> 
> Chart of LPM, daily bars, 6 months. Source NABTrade.
> View attachment 148214
> 
> 
> KH



This is a trading portfolio, so not trying to stay in for the the long term, if the trend reverses, as per chart above.

In a bull market environment, there is higher probability of trades working out and trends going higher. Also, the reason for very few trades being placed in this portfolio at the moment is due to not having a clear bullish market environment.


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## aus_trader

Not much to do at the moment because the cash is likely to get chopped up in the volatility if deployed in the current environment. But doing a fair bit of company research and looking at a few charts time to time.

I might go on a little rant as there is not much trading at the moment if that's ok...

We sometimes forget how lucky it is to be alive. It's only the last two to three years we lost so many lives ( both reported (Covid death tally) and unreported (pressures of life and restrictions) ).

I know of quite a few people personally who were lost due to Covid due partial involvement in the Aged care industry via work. Something that people don't talk about or get reported are those who couldn't bear it during the gloom and committed the unthinkable due to loss of business and livelihood. Aware of a few in the community via word-of-moth etc and personally know one business owner who nearly did, but was hanging by a thread and made it with lots of counselling etc. Gland to report he is rebuilding his life. Few others lost their business as well that I know of via work.

Things may get touch again with a possibly looming recession with interest rate hikes and global geopolitical problems. But I believe we will come out well on the other side, it's these tough times when having an investment community can be really helpful. If you are doing well, it's time to pay it forward... I am not talking about more charity and welfare (see image below).

While current projects are continuing, I am going to work on projects to bring those little things that can help the community here and the community in general. Hoping specially to help and transform those well below the poverty line or struggling to make ends meet, those with gambling problems or even on welfare. Unless someone ended up with a windfall, every investing and wealth-building journey starts small.

Apologies in advance for a dire warning: I believe the safety nets are going to be reduced going forward. Hint_:_ Read the budget that was released a few days back, a lot of tightening and barely any freebies thrown out like in the past.

We'll need to learn how to fish:




Stay tuned... and most importantly stay alive


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## aus_trader

Sold 1/2 of A2M since it's had a good rally of late.




In case members missed it, A2M also announced FDA approval to supply infant formula in the US recently, which was posted in the A2M thread by @bigdog :




Closed Positions:



The closed position BML has made good progress since and is getting ready to mine Ag/Pb having awarded mining contractor recently. So, our research was good I suppose, however being a trading portfolio, we got kicked out during price weakness !


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## aus_trader

I have been looking into expanding into US stocks i.e. to look for the opportunities beyond the Aussie pond of stocks into the vast ocean. The current market downturn is offering quality US companies at steep discounts. e.g. Facebook is down 67% over a year:




and Amazon is nearly half price:




Spent a lot of hours looking for an easy platform that I can use for buying and selling US shares while residing in Australia.

Decided to open a Superhero account to invest in US shares. They offer no commission US shares and $5/trade on Aussie shares. Easy transfer of AUD into the account which can be converted to USD for purchasing US stocks within the platform.

At the moment there is a promotion to get free Tesla shares with Superhero trading but requires a "Refer a friend" link...



I couldn't find one in this forum or HC, but further searching led me to find one in Quora:









						Which is the best share trading platform in Australia in terms of minimum brokerage fees and good service?
					

Answer (1 of 2): I have been looking for a good stock trading platform to invest both in the Aussie stocks as well as in the US markets, but the choices have been limited. You could either get a good asx broker, but didn’t offer US stocks such as Apple, Google, Microsoft or Tesla until now.  I ca...




					www.quora.com
				




At this stage, investing in Quality US companies with a long-term outlook. Not sure if I will have the time to trade US stocks as my workload is high at the moment. Other ASF members may have more time with taking the lead...


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## aus_trader

Closed the remainder of the TYR position as the price has remained stagnant for some time. Pleased that the price kept on climbing after the Take Over offer came along a while ago, making it a very good trade.




Closed:


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## aus_trader

Having a little time off in the next few days to enjoy the festive season and to spend time with family and friends and it will be a great time to reflect on what a year it's been.

It's been a tough year in terms of trading and there weren't any break-away stocks that went on to multi-bag. However, there were a couple of stocks that had a run for some gains such as ARR and TYR. Hopefully the remaining position in A2M continues to do well into 2023  🤞 

One aspect that I am happy about when looking back at the year is taking only the highest conviction candidates in terms of stock research and setups. Hence there were very few trades that were taken preventing overtrading, which turned out to be good thing in this turbulent year than just putting on trades on any old setup for the sake of losing money.  This has resulted in capital preservation which will be deployed in better trading environment in the future...

We often forget to treat ourselves in years of poor or negligible returns such as this year and splurge on those with good stock market returns. I decided to treat myself to a nice casket of wines for exercising discipline in trading this year... 🍷

Wishing everyone a Joyful Christmas 🎅🎄🤶


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## aus_trader

Wish everyone a Happy New Year and lots of prosperity in 2023 !


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