# What is a realistic average daily return for a day trader?



## Jamesdee (25 May 2009)

Hi everyone,

What is a realistic average daily return for a day trader?

After reading many articles on the interent i can not find an answer. Of course there are the fairy tail ones about people making $1,000,000+ a year and also the tragic the ones about people going broke. not to mention the scams.

I really have no idea of what is realistic. However, I do understand that having realistic goals in your trading paln is very importaint.

So... 

Is a 5% return (each day you trade) on your total portfolio realistic? if so is it modist? or if not how unrealistic is it? - what is a realistic?

also...

I have read that on average day traders (who trading for a living and are successful) have about a 60% success rate (60% of their trades are proftable) is this true? if not what is their real success rate?


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## jono1887 (25 May 2009)

Jamesdee said:


> Hi everyone,
> 
> What is a realistic average daily return for a day trader?
> 
> ...




Its incredibly hard to determine, day traders can make 1000%s in a highly volatile market as it was back in March-April... It depends on so many factors like how the market is moving, how skilled the trader is ect ect.

I think being able to consistently earn 5% a day is not impossible but I doubt many day traders achieve this consistently...


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## Trembling Hand (25 May 2009)

Jamesdee said:


> I really have no idea of what is realistic.




Then it doesn't matter. If you have no idea of what the markets offer then, in my not so humble opinion, you are years away from actually taking anything out of the market consistently.

But as a hint it mostly depends on capital.


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## skyQuake (25 May 2009)

https://www.aussiestockforums.com/forums/showpost.php?p=428730&postcount=27

But take it in context


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## awg (25 May 2009)

Jamesdee said:


> Hi everyone,
> 
> What is a realistic average daily return for a day trader?





-0.002739726027397260273972602739726 % per day x (100/3)


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## freddy2 (25 May 2009)

5% is way too high. Assuming 250 trading days per year that is 12.5 times your money in just 1 year using simple interest (1983 times using compound interest). Perhaps 0.1% is a more realistic figure - so if your bankroll is $100,000 you would make $100 per day before tax. Better to get a job at McDonalds.


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## Jamesdee (25 May 2009)

Trembling Hand said:


> Then it doesn't matter. If you have no idea of what the markets offer then, in my not so humble opinion, you are years away from actually taking anything out of the market consistently.
> 
> But as a hint it mostly depends on capital.




Ok maybe i exaggerated a bit there - I will admit i am still learning (this is why i asked the question). I guess my view of what is and is not possible is distorted by the fairy tail stories and the tragic ones. I am aware that it depends on things like the amount of risk you are willing to take, the amount of capital you have and market conditions. I am aware that there is a variety of factors. 

To an extent i will agree with you, i probably am a few years off trading (im only a 2nd year finance/economics student) i understand the basics and have a rough idea of what the market can offer. However, by not answering my question, giving me any new educational relevant information and not even giving me a ball park figure your not really helping me get to the point of "actually taking anything out of the market consistently" are you.


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## Jamesdee (25 May 2009)

freddy2 said:


> 5% is way too high. Assuming 250 trading days per year that is 12.5 times your money in just 1 year using simple interest (1983 times using compound interest). Perhaps 0.1% is a more realistic figure - so if your bankroll is $100,000 you would make $100 per day before tax. Better to get a job at McDonalds.




thanks freddy2

I worked there when i was a teenager - never again


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## simoncar (25 May 2009)

However, by not answering my question, giving me any new educational relevant information and not even giving me a ball park figure your not really helping me get to the point of "actually taking anything out of the market consistently" are you.  



How many runs can a cricketer make in an innings?????  Depends on the pitch conditions, the standard of the bowlers, the standard of the fielders, how much luck you have, how much have you practiced, have you got the basic skills, is your bat any good, are you in the right frame of mind, do you know the rules properly.


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## Aussiest (25 May 2009)

Jamesdee said:


> Hi everyone,
> 
> What is a realistic average daily return for a day trader?
> 
> ...




As TH said, it does depend largely on capital, but there are other factors at play:

Market volatility - how volatile the market is that day (eg, you can exploit the ups and downs)

As you rightly pointed out, how much risk you are willing to take

Your experience in the market and whether you can identify candidates for your trading

There are some days the market trades in a very narrow range. Those days are not good for day trading!

Just my


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## Cartman (25 May 2009)

freddy2 said:


> - so if your bankroll is $100,000 you would make $100 per day before tax. *Better to get a job at McDonalds*.




Probably right for most Fred ---- but u cant compound hamburgers can ya


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## The_Bman (25 May 2009)

I play in the ASX share market game. It's great for testing new plans and strategies and gauge performance against other people.

The leader is on $86,660.97 or 1.1% per day on the $50K initial capital.

The top 100 players are on .6% or better.

I'm in the 29th percentile at 3840 of 13377 players. This is equivalent to .2% per day on the $50K initial capital.


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## skyQuake (25 May 2009)

You might be able to make 2% today, but lose 3% tomorrow, then make 1% the day after, and lose 15% next when stuff hits the fan. Point is if you are daytrading equities, its probably better to have a monthly goal (depending on your timeframe) rather than a daily expectancy.


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## Trembling Hand (25 May 2009)

freddy2 said:


> 5% is way too high. Assuming 250 trading days per year that is 12.5 times your money in just 1 year using simple interest (1983 times using compound interest). Perhaps 0.1% is a more realistic figure - so if your bankroll is $100,000 you would make $100 per day before tax. Better to get a job at McDonalds.




Freddy you haven't a clue. As usual you chime in and claim that traders make nothing. but of course you will not comment past this completely uniform post to give any reasoning behind you claim.


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## Aussiest (25 May 2009)

The_Bman said:


> I play in the ASX share market game. It's great for testing new plans and strategies and gauge performance against other people.
> 
> The leader is on $86,660.97 or 1.1% per day on the $50K initial capital.
> 
> ...




So, you may be able to reasonably assume that you could expect a return of around 0.5% of capital, if you were lucky?!

Good point SkyQuake..


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## Jamesdee (25 May 2009)

The_Bman said:


> I play in the ASX share market game. It's great for testing new plans and strategies and gauge performance against other people.
> 
> The leader is on $86,660.97 or 1.1% per day on the $50K initial capital.
> 
> ...




thanks Bman - this is the kind of info i was looking for (i probably should have been specific) an individuals average figure or example of what can realistically be achieved.


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## MichaelD (25 May 2009)

I'd suggest that the distribution curve of profits amongst day traders is not a normal distribution, with the vast majority of "day traders" making around -5% per day, and the profitable 0.01% taking the money from the -5%ers.

Also, to take the suggestion of returns from the ASX game as in the slightest bit relevant to real day trading clearly would put you in the -5%.

The best risk manager is the winner in this game.


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## beamstas (25 May 2009)

If you started with $10,000 and made 5% a day, after 1 year (252 trading days) you'd have $2,186,267,836. Of course, that is unrealistic, because you wouldn't be compounding that much money.


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## The_Bman (25 May 2009)

You're welcome, the real point here is there is no right answer. The Game has a limited number of stocks to trade and you can only hold long positions. Other instruments like CFDs or chasing penny stocks can return >100% a day if your risk appetite allows you.

IMO, if you want to measure yourself, set some goals, e.g. Achieve a  % return > 12 month term deposit. E.g.16% pa.

Measure yourself and adjust your trading plan and rules accordingly.


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## Kryzz (25 May 2009)

beamstas said:


> after 1 year (252 trading days)




Stupid quesiton here, is the no. of trading days just 365 minus all weekends and public holidays? 

Shaun.


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## beamstas (25 May 2009)

Kryzz said:


> Stupid quesiton here, is the no. of trading days just 365 minus all weekends and public holidays?
> 
> Shaun.




Yep..
It can change year to year
But generally around 252


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## jono1887 (25 May 2009)

beamstas said:


> Yep..
> It can change year to year
> But generally around 252




365/7 x 5 = 255 - at least 9 public hols = 246ish +/- 2


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## Mr J (26 May 2009)

How long is a piece of string? As others have mentioned, what could be considered a realistic daily average will vary greatly from trader to trader. There is no standard answer.

I will say that 60%+ winrate is actually quite easy. It's not the winrate that matters, but the average profit per trade, and the amount of exposure. One could easily manufacture an 80% winrate, but that certainly doesn't mean it's profitable, as the occassional losses may outweigh the many wins. Profitable winrates vary as greatly as daily averages. Some may only need a 40% winrate, others may need 70%.



Trembling Hand]Then it doesn't matter. If you have no idea of what the markets offer then said:


> 365/7 x 5 = 255 - at least 9 public hols = 246ish +/- 2




And throw in plenty of untradable days.


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## Trembling Hand (26 May 2009)

Mr J said:


> I'd suggest it doesn't matter anyway. I don't see how the results of others are relevant. It won't change our own performance, so all it really serves is to satisfy curiosity.




But it does show how completely new to the game the original poster is. I mean how long does it take to figure out this question 

You only have to do a couple of days trading and if you cannot see the opportunity in a realistic way then you are truly lost.

So unless this guy is about 2 days into the trading adventure his arithmetic is about as good as most people business skills on this site. :


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## alwaysLearning (30 May 2009)

*Lahde Quits Hedge Funds, Thanks `Idiots' for Success*

http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601087&sid=aLmRPHKZLYmY&refer=home

This is an amusing article but this guy's hedge fund earned itself 870% in one year.


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## nulla nulla (30 May 2009)

jono1887 said:


> Its incredibly hard to determine, day traders can make 1000%s in a highly volatile market as it was back in March-April... It depends on so many factors like how the market is moving, how skilled the trader is ect ect.
> 
> I think being able to consistently earn 5% a day is not impossible but I doubt many day traders achieve this consistently...




jeez if you can make 5% guaranteed a day for me, I'll give you my dough to work with and you should have doubled my capital for me within a month.


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## beamstas (30 May 2009)

nulla nulla said:


> jeez if you can make 5% guaranteed a day for me, I'll give you my dough to work with and you should have doubled my capital for me within a month.




5% a day
You'll double your capital in 14 days, Triple it in 23 and quadruple it in 28

After 250 days you'll have 198,300 times your initial capital 

5% a day realistic for anyone? No.

Larry Williams made 1000% in a year.


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## skc (30 May 2009)

One way to put it in perspective is to look at the market overall. The average market return for the last 10 years was ~12% (before the downturn), so that is the total pot for all market participants. 12% annual return is less than 0.05% per day (no compunding). 

Before anyone jump the gun and says you can profit with short sell or extract more than 12% from the market by buying multiple up legs etc, I am simply referring to the fact that the overall market is a zero sum game, and your short sell profit is someone else's loss.

So this truely is nothing more than a "how long is a piece of string" question. There is no answer like "the average lawyer 5 years out should make 100K". 

But of course, like all weight loss treatment ads, individual results will vary. 

So to me there is only the answer that "The average market participant can make 0.05% per day. How much you make depnds on how good you are".

Any other number being thrown around are pointless.


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## beamstas (30 May 2009)

skc said:


> I am simply referring to the fact that the overall market is a zero sum game, and your short sell profit is someone else's loss.




I'd really like to discuss this, especially with someone who thinks the market is infact zero sum.

Lets simplify zero sum

Company A has 2 shares and they are priced at $1.00 each.
Person X and person Y both hold 1 share

Company A posts a massive profit and people are willing to buy for $30.00 each

Person X likes Company A and decides to hold
Person Y decides to sell for $30.00 to person Z

Person Y realises a profit of $29.00

Who lost $29.00?

The obvious candidate is person Z. But he can now sell for $30.00 and realise no loss at all.

Im not saying im right
I just can't comprehend how it can be zero sum


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## cutz (30 May 2009)

I think you may need to keep following the money to come to an obvious conclusion, at some stage someone is going to take a hit.


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## Trembling Hand (30 May 2009)

beamstas said:


> Im not saying im right
> I just can't comprehend how it can be zero sum




That's because you haven't finished the equation.

Its a zero sum game after initial listing, divs, brokerage & capital raising.

Its just a big game of pass the parcel. Investors = traders


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## nomore4s (30 May 2009)

I think the OP is going about this the wrong way.

-First you need to identify how much money you want to take out of the markets to make a living out of daytrading. 
-Then you need to work out what markets you want to trade.
-Then you need to work out the average daily range or movement of that market.
-Then you need to work out what % you need to take from that range to meet your targets and if you can consistently take that % from the market, allowing for of course good days & bad days. If the market on average moves say 25 points and you need to take 20 points a day is that realistic?

There are of course other considerations like capital base, type of trading/trading plan, hours spent trading each day etc, etc. But this should give you an idea about whether what you want to earn from the markets is realistic.

I think FrankD explains it well in his book.

I will also add this - daytrading is not easy and while most new traders seem to aspire to it (I did at least), it isn't for everyone. I've tried daytrading at various times and to be honest don't enjoy it at all even though I love trading. Maybe it's because I'm no good at daytrading, lol.


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## cutz (30 May 2009)

Exactly, there’s only a small minority of profitable day traders, those that are successful have a special talent, something that can’t be taught I assume, anyway it’s something I haven’t got.

My short term vehicle of choice are options with positions going out to about 4/5 weeks so technically that excludes me from the OP’s request.

But I tell you what, it must be nice going to bed holding nil positions but still pulling profits.


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## nomore4s (30 May 2009)

cutz said:


> Exactly, there’s only a small minority of profitable day traders, those that are successful have a special talent, something that can’t be taught I assume, anyway it’s something I haven’t got.




I actually think it can be taught. It is a skill and skills can be learnt, but it comes down to how much practice & effort one is willing to put in and the quality of that practice.


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## Timmy (30 May 2009)

"What is a realistic average daily return for a day trader?"

The average daily return for those calling themselves day traders is a negative $ figure.  Is that realistic enough for you?


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## skyQuake (30 May 2009)

Trembling Hand said:


> That's because you haven't finished the equation.
> 
> Its a zero sum game after initial listing, divs, brokerage & capital raising.
> 
> Its just a big game of pass the parcel. Investors = traders




Correct me if I'm wrong but I though futs = 0 sum, neg after brokerage.

and shares can be either? If markets are rallying its positive sum, if markets are tanking, its negative sum.


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## mazzatelli1000 (30 May 2009)

In addition to nomore4s post, maybe self assess personality via tests like Myer Briggs (i.e. the ISFP etc descriptions).

When initially deciding what vehicle I wanted to trade I found I was of the "P" Perceiving function, the implication being I liked to keep my options open.

"P"s generally make poor traders and it may be advisable not to take up trading at all, as perceivers are not decisive and tend to be flexible with stops etc. 

I found less sensitive delta trading utilising non linear derivatives much more fitted my personality.
I found I was an extremely crap daytrader
LOL


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## cutz (30 May 2009)

nomore4s said:


> I actually think it can be taught. It is a skill and skills can be learnt, but it comes down to how much practice & effort one is willing to put in and the quality of that practice.




Nah,

I reckon it's like learning an instrument, most can learn to play, only the gifted will become virtuoso.

That's cool i agree to disagree on that one. 

>>EDIT, Hi Mazza, just noticed your post, that also why I love options, a position can be manipulated on the hop rather than closing out, yet to master it but getting there. BTW nice picture.


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## Timmy (30 May 2009)

cutz said:


> I reckon it's like learning an instrument, most can learn to play, only the gifted will become virtuoso.




Being gifted is not enough, and not even necessary.
Check out this thread.
Check out this article.

Most notable researcher in this field of expertise development is K. Anders Ericsson.

TH has posted extensively on this.


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## cutz (30 May 2009)

Thanks for the info Timmy, i'll check it out later on.


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## Timmy (30 May 2009)

cutz said:


> Thanks for the info Timmy, i'll check it out later on.




It is really good stuff Cutz.


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## nomore4s (30 May 2009)

cutz said:


> Nah,
> 
> I reckon it's like learning an instrument, most can learn to play, only the gifted will become virtuoso.
> 
> That's cool i agree to disagree on that one.




But do you have to be a virtuoso to be profitable? There are plenty of musicians making a good living from music without being virtuoso's.


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## Trembling Hand (30 May 2009)

nomore4s said:


> But do you have to be a virtuoso to be profitable? There are plenty of musicians making a good living from music without being virtuoso's.




Thats a very good question.


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## cutz (30 May 2009)

nomore4s said:


> But do you have to be a virtuoso to be profitable? There are plenty of musicians making a good living from music without being virtuoso's.




We are talking day trading here i assume ?,

Technically a day trader will open and close all positions by the end of the trading day. Yes indeed, a special gift is required to be profitable IMO.

But then again it’s not my zone so who am I to say.


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## Trembling Hand (30 May 2009)

cutz said:


> Technically a day trader will open and close all positions by the end of the trading day. Yes indeed, a special gift is required to be profitable IMO.




Such as what? A special kind of magic to see where the market is going?

What are these "special gifts" you speak of and where can I buy them


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## nomore4s (30 May 2009)

cutz said:


> We are talking day trading here i assume ?,
> 
> Technically a day trader will open and close all positions by the end of the trading day. Yes indeed, a special gift is required to be profitable IMO.
> 
> But then again it’s not my zone so who am I to say.




lol, yes we are talking about daytrading.

I'm interested in why you think it requires a special gift to be profitable and isn't just a skill set that needs to be learnt?


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## cutz (30 May 2009)

Dunno TH, you tell me.

EDIT>> Sorry didn't mean gift, how about a special talent.


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## mazzatelli1000 (30 May 2009)

Maybe when cutz refers to "special gifts" maybe it should be interpreted as finding your niche and capitalising on the strength?


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## Trembling Hand (30 May 2009)

cutz said:


> Dunno TH, you tell me.
> 
> EDIT>> Sorry didn't mean gift, how about a special talent.




define for us what talent is?


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## Grinder (30 May 2009)

mazzatelli1000 said:


> Maybe when cutz refers to "special gifts" maybe it should be interpreted as finding your niche and capitalising on the strength?




Exactly! Truely understanding your personality is a good start. Maximizing your strengths, being honest & accepting of your weaknesses, combined with passion & dedication can do wonders. No need for special talents or extra high IQ imo.


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## Cartman (30 May 2009)

cutz said:


> that also why I love options, *a position can be manipulated on the hop rather than closing out*,




interesting point Cutz ----- you *can* also jockey for position  *day trading* -----  (position sizing = v. important) 



nomore4s said:


> There are plenty of musicians making a good living from music without being virtuoso's.




yep --- a lot of virtuoso musos probably eat baked beans for dinner every second night whereas Joe bloggs doing AC-DC covers at the local pub has gigs lined up for a year -------- different long term potentials though


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## cutz (30 May 2009)

OK Gotcha Guys,

So anyone can be a successful day trader through having proper training, dedication, practice, correct money management techniques, equipment ect.ect. That certain knack, special talent or whatever is not required, what the hell was I thinking.

Thanks for enlightening me.


Think i'll stick with what i know.


EDIT>> For TH who asked me to define talent,>>an attractive member of the opposite sex.


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## nunthewiser (30 May 2009)

nomore4s said:


> But do you have to be a virtuoso to be profitable? There are plenty of musicians making a good living from music without being virtuoso's.




 yeah well take Duran Duran for an example


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## cutz (30 May 2009)

nomore4s said:


> But do you have to be a virtuoso to be profitable? There are plenty of musicians making a good living from music without being virtuoso's.




Guys,

I was using the musician as a metaphor, i.e. the pinnacle for a learner musician is to become a virtuoso of that instrument, not to be able to pull a massive wage, and not everyone can achieve that. The pinnacle of a learner day trader is to be pulling his/her required wage without holding overnight positions, well that’s what I assume.

Yeah we all know that anyone can mimic a great riff but how many musos can cook one up, there’s still only one AC/DC but plenty of wannabees.

Even i’ve got an electric guitar don’t ask me to write something,  I can play you a tune though.


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## craigj (1 June 2009)

i dont day trade but if i see a stock with a large number of buyers to sellers at the pre open i may buy and set a sell price 4-6% higher once ive bought and if the price rises that % during the day then i have pulled around $300 from the market

a few of these trades a month will help your average out


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## skc (1 June 2009)

beamstas said:


> I'd really like to discuss this, especially with someone who thinks the market is infact zero sum.
> 
> Lets simplify zero sum
> 
> ...




The company lost $29 a share by selling their shares at $1 in the initial listing...



cutz said:


> OK Gotcha Guys,
> 
> So anyone can be a successful day trader through having proper training, dedication, practice, correct money management techniques, equipment ect.ect. That certain knack, special talent or whatever is not required, what the hell was I thinking.




The only thing missing here is the right personality/temperment like many people have mentioned. Hard to be really succcessful at something if you don't enjoy (or at least not hate it).


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## awg (1 June 2009)

Trembling Hand said:


> define for us what talent is?




 A marked innate ability, as for artistic accomplishment. 

 Natural endowment or ability of a superior quality.

I would add that an individual would require the capacity to form neural pathways that facilitate the task they are doing.

Examples are abundant in sport, music, work etc

No amount of determination and relentless practice would mean you can bat like Don Bradman.

Jimi Hendrix guitar work was almost super natural for his time

Even though they practiced to the point of obsession..they had TALENT

Do you really think that any person can become a very successful trader, given sufficient training?

I think the majority? of people lack the required capabilities, even though to define exactly what they are for traders, you would be better able to say.

So I am not sure whether your question is rhetorical, but IMHO the combination of various innate characteristics within a person would surely mean that they may be far superior as a trader to another, all other factors being equal


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## Trembling Hand (1 June 2009)

awg said:


> A marked innate ability, as for artistic accomplishment.
> 
> Natural endowment or ability of a superior quality.
> 
> ...




awg with all due respect your post is full of populist unproven mystical nonsense!!

Study after study has proven the diff between the "talented experts" at the top of their field is 10,000 to 20,000 hours or more of deliberative practise.

There has been countless studies disproving the "naturally gifted" achiever. Outside of basic requirements, like being the right height for basketballer or a reasonable level of intelligence for a medico you will find that the equation of (opportunity) + (Hours of deliberative practise) = how far they get along the Amature - Expert line.

Here's a little extract from some of the 100s of articles and books I've read looking into this,



> When experts exhibit their superior performance in public their behavior looks so effortless and natural that we are tempted to attribute it to special talents.  Although a certain amount of knowledge and training seems necessary, the role of acquired skill for the highest levels of achievement has traditionally been minimized.  However, when scientists began measuring the experts' supposedly superior powers of speed, memory and intelligence with psychometric tests, no general superiority was found --the demonstrated superiority was domain specific.  For example, the superiority of the chess experts' memory was constrained to regular chess positions and did not generalize to other types of materials (Djakow, Petrowski & Rudik, 1927).  Not even IQ could distinguish the best among chessplayers (Doll & Mayr, 1987) nor the most successful and creative among artists and scientists (Taylor, 1975). In a recent review, Ericsson and Lehmann (1996) found that (1) measures of general basic capacities do not predict success in a domain, (2) the superior performance of experts is often very domain specific and transfer outside their narrow area of expertise is surprisingly limited and (3) systematic differences between experts and less proficient individuals nearly always reflect attributes acquired by the experts during their lengthy training.





> By imposing scientific standards for verifiable facts on exceptional performance it is possible to exclude the large body of retrospective accounts and studies documenting amazing past achievements that have fueled beliefs in the magical abilities and talents attributed to exceptional individuals.



http://www.amazon.com/Road-Excellence-Acquisition-Performance-Sciences/dp/0805822321


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## awg (2 June 2009)

Hi TH, 

thanks for the informative reply.

I acknowledge your interest, study and expertise in this area

which is why I posed the question.

I could have inserted that I consider determination to be a characteristic of talent

We will have to respectfully disagree about Don Bradman

I totally agree with the "domain specific" qoutes 

I think that was largely what I meant, if that is not too confusing


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## Trembling Hand (2 June 2009)

awg said:


> I could have inserted that I consider determination to be a characteristic of talent
> 
> We will have to respectfully disagree about Don Bradman




Well thats one thing the studies have yet to get to or prove/disprove. It has been shown that opportunity and advantage because of social biases have an effect on success. like height or good looking people. etc but no one has been able to come up with a theory about why such people can spend so long in deliberative practise.


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## awg (2 June 2009)

Trembling Hand said:


> Well thats one thing the studies have yet to get to or prove/disprove. It has been shown that opportunity and advantage because of social biases have an effect on success. like height or good looking people. etc but no one has been able to come up with a theory about why such people can spend so long in deliberative practise.




I cant quote the source ATM, however, I do recall reading that obssessive-compulsive tendencies are higher than average in a number of occupations, including pilots, mechanics and sportsmen  lol ...traders?

I have taught quite a few people how to play guitar.

One guy was outstanding, from the very first time he picked up a guitar.
He had never, ever played before and was in his 20's

I am unable to explain why he was so much better than anyone else, other than that he possessed a combination of innate skills that facilitated this.

The way he played after ONE lesson was just amazing.

I have never seen anyone else remotely like that

He went on to play pro which would be very rare for someone who started at that age.

re Trading, do you think a lack of intelligence would be an impediment, ( ie lowest 25 percentile), more so than than an abundance of intellect being and advantage?

BTW, I have come across many people whom would have had a measurable IQ, less than my own, but I consider their practical application of intelligence greatly superior to mine


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## jono1887 (2 June 2009)

Theres a tv show on tonight to settle this debate... they did a social experiment where 8 random people were given intensive trading training for 2 weeks then $1million to start their own hedge fund, i think the result would be quite interesting. Its on SBS,  7:30pm Tuesday.

- *Million Dollar Traders*
Eight ordinary people are given a million dollars, a fortnight of intensive training and two months to run their own hedge fund. Can they make a killing? The money is supplied by hedge fund manager Lex van Dam: he wants to see if ordinary people can beat the professionals, and he expects a return on his investment too. Yet no-one foresees the financial crisis that lies ahead. The traders were selected in spring 2008, before the US credit crisis gathered pace. Among the traders are an environmentalist, a soldier, a boxing promoter, an entrepreneur, a retired IT consultant, a vet, a student and a shopkeeper. As the novices learn the dark art of trading stocks and shares, the financial markets start to buckle. Making money takes second place to basic survival as the brutal realities of global economics take their toll on the traders. How do they cope? Will they secure themselves a bonus, or walk away with nothing?


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## Timmy (2 June 2009)

jono1887 said:


> intensive trading training for 2 weeks




2 whole weeks eh? LOL
Anyway, looks like it should be fun.


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## nomore4s (2 June 2009)

jono1887 said:


> Theres a tv show on tonight to settle this debate... they did a social experiment where 8 random people were given intensive trading training for 2 weeks then $1million to start their own hedge fund, i think the result would be quite interesting. Its on SBS,  7:30pm Tuesday.




Jono, there is already a thread on this show.

There are links in that thread for all the episodes off youtube.


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## Trembling Hand (2 June 2009)

jono1887 said:


> Theres a tv show on tonight to settle this debate... they did a social experiment where 8 random people were given intensive trading training for 2 weeks then $1million to start their own hedge fund,




You have to be frigging kidding?


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## skc (2 June 2009)

awg said:


> I have taught quite a few people how to play guitar.




Guitar hero?


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## awg (2 June 2009)

jono1887 said:


> Theres a tv show on tonight to settle this debate... they did a social experiment where 8 random people were given intensive trading training for 2 weeks then $1million to start their own hedge fund, i think the result would be quite interesting. Its on SBS,  7:30pm Tuesday.
> 
> - *Million Dollar Traders*




dont think it will sort out much

I do fully agree with TH contention that constant practice and evaluation over a period of time paramount.

in this case they have minimal training and practice..2 weeks?

As a for instance, I would contend that only very basic maths skills are required for trading...ie percentages and + & -...but you have to innately understand them

and yet, just today, I here the maths knowledge of Uni nurses is so bad, the majority are unable to correctly calculate dosages based on bodyweight

back to music...sorry cant quote the source, but very recently
two groups, one practised piano daily, the others practised only in their heads.

results...same improvement, did not surprise me, this happens to me all the time, very hard to explain, but I master the most complex pieces mainly in my head.

The brain translates the thoughts into music and instructs the fingers to the minute control required to play, (and the other way around.)

manual practice still required of course, but it can take hundreds of hours to master the most complex pieces, but sometimes huge leaps are made without any manual practice at all, the music plays in my head constantly, and allows the neural pathways to form. 

It gives me a huge buzz when this happens

skill, mindset, practice.

I want all three, got a long way to go

I think this show has been around before, I will be watching it


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## jono1887 (2 June 2009)

nomore4s said:


> Jono, there is already a thread on this show.
> 
> There are links in that thread for all the episodes off youtube.




oh sorry, i didnt know...


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## jono1887 (2 June 2009)

The first episode was hilarious!! that old man having breakfast during open and loosing on all his trades, and then there was the girl that cried for 1.5 hours because she was too scared to make a trade... i think it just shows that not everyone is capable of trading...


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## ThingyMajiggy (2 June 2009)

jono1887 said:


> ... i think it just shows that not everyone is capable of trading...




Personally, I wouldn't be capable of playing in a professional band in front of 50,000 people after doing 2 weeks of guitar lessons either. 

The show is entertaining!


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## jono1887 (2 June 2009)

ThingyMajiggy said:


> Personally, I wouldn't be capable of playing in a professional band in front of 50,000 people after doing 2 weeks of guitar lessons either.
> 
> The show is entertaining!




But they're starting of small with 25,000 pounds, limited to 20% per trade... its essentially the same conditions as the ASX stock market game and the majority of those players are able to profit. 

They also have the ability to short... they should've made a killing during the beginning of the crisis, but all they've been able to do is bleed money :

They could've been using pretend money with fake brokers for they knew, or even us... it all could've been a simulation and no money was risked. You would've come out with the same outcome i think. They should have an Australian version of this, with weekly eliminations and group challenges and what not... perhaps channel 10 could fund it : it would be better than big brother


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## seekandfind (11 February 2019)

Tough question to answer properly, and it always comes up in many forums. The thread usually ends up badly LOL! Rather than provide a specific metric initially, I think the OP can strive for the best results by focusing on deriving a method that consistently provides a high percentage of winners, month after month after month regardless of market condition. Yes it is possible to get to that point. Essentially a consistent average of 80% or higher winning trades month after month. The second variable to strive for is to find a market that provides for the ability ( with an enormous amount of screen time experience) to consistently keep a stop loss at 3 ticks or less ( if trading futures). The 3 tick stop acts as a disaster stop which is not usually hit, most losses will be kept at 1 or 2 ticks. Once this can be achieved on entry selection, screen time will also allow you to determine what time of the day (usually) achieves the largest range, and your profit is set to a portion of that average ATR ( obviously adjusts to market volatility). This will define your maximum profit objective which should be hit quite frequently together with smaller profits that are taken either based on price stalling or based on time expiring ( day trading only the optimal time period of the day). The largest profit objective will be 5 to 10 times the average loss ( my method and the market i trade). It is not uncommon to experience an average daily return of approximately 50% for extended periods of time. Bear in mind I used a heavily discounted futures broker, with non typical leverage available during the markets day session. In order to obtain that return, I initially risked between 5 and 10% of my account on a trading account that was sub 50,000 USD. For my situation, my broker, and my method I have found an ideal account size of 60,000 USD. I now cap my maximum contract size per trade to 20 contracts, with a maximum risk of 3% per trade ( 3 ticks ), so returns now are lower, but the 50% per day is quite possible and with a reasonable degree of consistency. The largest daily return I have obtained is close to 150% ( 48 ticks and it came in within 30 minutes of trade entry), but it was an outlier for sure.  I used a money management approach that was very similar to what Larry Williams used when he achieved his 1987 record. This is more applicable to the account in its early stages, but is incredibly powerful if you can achieve a high success rate with a very tight stop loss. decrease contract size when losing, and increase when winning by a fixed ratio. This technique will not work in most cases but will generate the fastest rate of return possible if you can achieve the objectives I have outlined. My broker provides low margin up to a maximum of 50 contracts. So this is one reason why it is not possible to continually compound the returns I have highlighted indefinitely. In addition the 30 year bond futures that I trade have trouble generating fills at the same price the method dictates when trading too large even during liquid trading hours, so I must stress that these returns are only possible with consistency on a relatively small account size. I hope I have answered your query. Realise it was a while ago, but this can still give you an idea of what is possible. In terms of an official audited record of what is possible in day trading, as far as I am aware, the best record I have seen that is public knowledge, and audited was that of Mary Schwartz. His average return over 20 years was 25% per month.


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