# ROC/TAP Oil?



## The Barbarian Investor (19 March 2005)

I'm thinking that oil still will move upwards and am looking at ROC oil or TAP oil- any thoughts on OIL stocks?

Price movement
Emerging oil producer and explorer Roc Oil Company sold a major asset in September, causing its share price to jump from $1.65 to more than $2. While its earnings will dip in the short-term, upcoming projects will provide it with a new phase of growth.

Profile
Roc Oil is a small Australian company with oil and gas production assets in Britain. In Australia it has a 30 per cent interest in the Cliff Head field in the offshore Perth Basin. In West Africa, it has a 3.7 per cent stake in the Chinguetti and Tiof oil fields. Exploration efforts are continuing in other Australian, West African and Chinese licences. Roc listed on the ASX in 1999 and used its listing capital to acquire oil and gas production assets in eastern England and in the North Sea.

Current details
In September Roc sold its Saltfleetby gas field in Britain for $111 million and it will book a $72 million net profit on the sale. This will leave the company with $180 million in cash - equivalent to more than half of its current market capitalisation of about $340 million. Roc's goal is to establish a well-balanced, international exploration and production company with significant reserves and sustainable production. With the cash, it can now take advantage of new opportunities that may arise in a busy 18 months of exploration. It will also be able to fund its share of developing the Chinguetti and Cliff Head oil fields, which are expected to come onstream next year. Because of the sale of the Saltfleetby field, Roc's total revenue will drop from $36 million last year to $1 million this year, but it will swell to $92 million next year. The net profit for next year is expected to be about $20 million to $22 million.

Sector
Oil and gas companies continually need to explore and establish new production to diversify risk and replenish reserves. Growth can also come from acquisitions or buying existing production licences from other companies. In this regard, with the company cashed up it is a possibility that Roc could be a takeover target itself. The high oil price will drive more exploration by making the risks lower and there are a number of emerging junior oil producers. Arc Energy ($350 million market capitalisation), Australian Worldwide Exploration ($533 million), Tap Oil ($286 million) and Hardman Resources ($1.3 billion) are all capable of making additional significant discoveries.


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## mime (19 March 2005)

*Re: ROC Oil ?*

I bought TAP awhile ago and was annoyed because my other stocks where preforming when it wasn't, now it's recovered a bit so I'm happy. I don't know much about ROC oil but I think TAP will move up more. Mainly because of China pushing up the oil price.

I made a post awhile ago about oil going up because of China but no one replyed  

P.S Thanks for the tip on MML.


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## knit 1 pearl 2 (20 March 2005)

*Re: ROC Oil ?*

check out BPT for oil  too
I just sold my ROC, so they should shoot up soon :homer:doh!


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## Smurf1976 (20 March 2005)

*Re: ROC Oil ?*

Long term totally and absolutely agree about buying oil stocks.

I have my own oil production model (last updated December 2003 and due for an update later this year). I choose to own a small car. I own oil stocks. You connect the dots...

Short term though I am expecting an oil price peak around $60 - 62.50 so now might not be the best time to buy if you are buying as a long term hold (unless you are buying on the basis of exploration). That forecast is somewhat risky though given how tight the market is... One major mishap (like Saudi's maximum contact wells suddenly failing, an oilfield accident somewhere or a strike, war etc) and the price heads to the moon...

There is a lot of deepwater production especially coming online 2005 and 2006 and a bit in 2007 but the industry has basically nothing beyond that.


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