# TXN - Texon Petroleum



## surfingman (20 April 2007)

I have been looking at a prospectus wondering if anyone has subscribed?

Oil and Gas Exploration (Drilling 3rd quarter 2007)
$1.32 million cash as at 31 December 2006.

50 cent per share
4 shares = 1 free option

http://www.texonpetroleum.com.au/info/TEXPE5950Prospectus.pdf

On the surface it looks good, a total of 90 million shares on offer at the end of offer, already has 50 million.

Their is a seismic data specialist in the dealing offering first pick of data for Texon, through another company Wandoo until June 2012. Primarily in the Texas gulf region.

15 initial wells to be drilled begin 3rd quarter 2007, all close to existing pipelines.

Directors look to have good backgrounds.

David Mason
(Chief Executive Officer and President)
Mr David Mason is President and Chief Executive Officer
of Texon and its US Subsidiaries.
Mr Mason founded Wandoo in July 2005. Before
his involvement with Wandoo and Texon, Mr Mason
worked for 24 years in the oil and gas industry with
three multinational companies namely, BHP Petroleum
(1982–1986), Petrofina (1987–1996) and Woodside Energy
(1996–2005). During this time, he gained experience in
petroleum ventures in Australia, South East Asia, North
Africa and the USA.

Dr John Armstrong
(Chairman)
Dr Armstrong has had a 35 year career in the upstream oil
and gas industry including 9 years with UNOCAL in South
East Asia and over 20 years in senior management roles
at Santos.

Bernard Rowley
(Director)
Bernard Rowley was Chief Executive Officer of Suncorp
for 10 years. Prior to that appointment he was General
Manager for the insurance operations and had previously
served in various actuarial and information
technology roles.

Any thoughts on this one? I know Oil and Gas IPO, not expecting a U movement on SP.


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## MangaNOID (30 January 2008)

*TXN Texon petroleum*

I found a txn thread through searching but i couldnt see it in the q-z forums so i'll start this one.

this seems to be a relatively new company with not much exposure. it's had alot of good news recently but hasnt seemed to recover from the other weeks plummet. they just announced another well for gas that came on line adding to their previous wells. seems like wherever they drill they get gas! its currently at an all time low without any real fundamental reason to be. perhaps a bargain? not much action buying and selling though.

anyone else hold this with any thoughts?


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## TheIceMan (30 January 2008)

I've held this for a few months without much joy. I just happened to buy at the high when I thought it was about to do great things. But, it took a serious hit on 10th Dec with the Bondi announcement of a duster. It fell from high 60's to low 50's and has been on a slide ever since. Positive news such as today's announcement are virtually ignored by the market. Still think it has great potential but it may take some time to see results.


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## TheIceMan (1 February 2008)

Surely today's announcement will give the SP some foward momentum. Can anyone tell me how the flow rate stands up ?

Texon Petroleum (?Texon?) advises that a production test of the 5.8 metre (19ft) gas bearing
formation referred to in the Company?s release of 24 January 2008 has flowed gas at a
gross rate of 765 mcfgpd.
Surface production facilities are in place and it is now planned to construct a pipeline to
connect the well for production for gas sales from this zone. This is expected to occur within
the next four weeks.


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## MangaNOID (1 February 2008)

Not sure how it rates compared to other company production rates but from a quick calculation they now have around 2500mcfgpd in sales?

Slight lift in sp today but seems slow out of the starters box for this one. They only have about 90million shares on issue so maybe every is holding them tight. Just no one seems to want to purchase them atm.

Will be interesting to see the next quarterly report which will actually contain sales of gas amounts in dollars.


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## TheIceMan (4 February 2008)

Are we seeing the beginning of a turnaround for this stock? On daily charts, the MACD has crossed the signal line and it is above the 14-day EMA. Volume is still light but there are more buyers than sellers. Early days yes, but things are looking better.


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## TheIceMan (15 February 2008)

YAMBA #1 – PRODUCTION TEST RESULT
ONSHORE GULF COAST, SOUTH TEXAS, USA
Texon Petroleum (“Texon”) advises that a production test of the upper zone of the gas
bearing formation referred to in the Company’s release of 7 February 2008 has a thickness
of 4.3m (14ft) and has flowed gas at a gross rate of 507 mcfgpd. Further studies concluded
that the lower 2ft zone did not warrant testing.
Surface production facilities are in place and it is now planned to construct a pipeline to
connect the well for production for gas sales from this zone. This is expected to occur within
the next four weeks.


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## 56gsa (18 February 2008)

things are looking better on this iceman - 5 out of 6 wells being connected to pipes...  if it can find the 40c support - find a bit more volume - push through 46c, then could be heading for the 52-58c range.  OK fews 'ifs' there -positive news and gas flow needs to continue...


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## TheIceMan (19 February 2008)

Am still hopeful on this but it may take some time (if you've got it). Looking weaker the last few days. But agree, needs to find some support in the 40's before touching the recent high of 47c.


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## TheIceMan (26 February 2008)

Just in case anyone was wondering what TEXON was up to. 

AVOCA #1
ONSHORE GULF COAST, SOUTH TEXAS, USA
Texon Petroleum Ltd (“Texon”) advises that the drilling of Avoca #1, the fourth well of its
2008 shallow program, commenced on 25 February 2008. It has a planned total depth of
2,073m (6,800ft) with an estimated gross gas resource potential of 0.5-0.6bcf.
Avoca #1 targets a deeper formation than the previous three recent Texon discoveries.
Initial flow rates from wells nearby to Avoca have been between 0.85 and 1.5mmcfgpd.
Texon will have a 96.67% working interest (72.50% net revenue interest) if the well is
successful.
After Avoca is drilled, Texon’s 2008 shallow drilling program will recommence in 4 to 6
weeks. At that time, the next two wells (fifth and sixth in the 2008 program) will likely be
Duranbah, which has a 3 - 4bcf target and Tallebudgera which has a target of 0.3 - 0.4bcf.
The Company plans to drill two or three shallow wells a quarter for the remainder of 2008.


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## TheIceMan (25 March 2008)

I seem to be Robinson Crusoe on this thread. But another positive announcement from this company which I believe is going places. Still tightly held but should hit 50c again soon, IMHO.

AVOCA #1 – PRODUCTION TEST RESULT
ONSHORE GULF COAST, SOUTH TEXAS, USA
Texon Petroleum (“Texon”) advises that a production test of the lower of the two (2) gas
bearing formations referred to in the Company’s release of 13 March 2008, and which has a
thickness of 8m (25ft), has flowed gas at a gross rate of 1.49 million cubic feet of gas per
day and 30 bopd, the highest test flow rate so far achieved by a well in Texon’s shallow
drilling program.
Surface production facilities are in place and it is now planned to construct a pipeline to
connect the well for production for gas sales from this zone. This is expected to occur within
the next few months.
Texon has a 96.67% Working Interest (WI), (72.5% Nett Revenue Interest (NRI)) in the well.


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## 56gsa (27 March 2008)

txn continues to have success with its drilling - the close above 50c today was impressive and now looks to be forming an uptrend...  about to start drilling the deeper wells which if successful will continue that trend...


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## TheIceMan (1 April 2008)

could not agree more. I thought it would spend a bit more time consolidating in high 40's but today's close of 59c is pretty damn good. can't wait for my patience to be rewarded. keep the good results coming.


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## 56gsa (9 April 2008)

recent rise just failed to test record highs at 0.75 - on no particular news so likely some are punting on the fact TXN will replicate the shallow well success with the deep well drilling...  consolidation around the 0.58-0.62 mark would be nice to see, and then have another go at cracking 0.75 and beyond


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## Coff&Dream (24 June 2009)

Does anyone think this stock is ever going to go anywhere. There seems to be good announcements but never seems to be any support for the news??


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## Kim Jong Ill (28 June 2009)

I've bought a small parcel of late for around 24 cents. It looks to have good upside from here. Next months balance sheet willl tell a good tale. 
Anyone around here still on board?


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## GumbyLearner (28 June 2009)

Kim Jong Ill said:


> I've bought a small parcel of late for around 24 cents. It looks to have good upside from here. Next months balance sheet willl tell a good tale.
> Anyone around here still on board?




Interesting nick and interesting first post. Do you look anything like this?

Tell me more about Texon. Why I should choose to place my hard-earned with them? Thoughts?


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## seasprite (29 June 2009)

Kim Jong Ill said:


> I've bought a small parcel of late for around 24 cents. It looks to have good upside from here. Next months balance sheet willl tell a good tale.
> Anyone around here still on board?




I posted in potential breakouts about this one , maybe today's news of a 60% increase in reserves will send this off. see http://www.asx.com.au/asxpdf/20090629/pdf/31j960vckydxyx.pdf


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## seasprite (24 July 2009)

For Texon Petroleum quarterly report refer to http://www.asx.com.au/asxpdf/20090724/pdf/31jpzxmy5jkzds.pdf


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## seasprite (24 July 2009)

Texon Petroleum expands Eagle Ford Leighton holdings refer to http://www.asx.com.au/asxpdf/20090724/pdf/31jpyy3pxk1dqv.pdf


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## seasprite (2 September 2009)

3rd Leighton well a success 8m Oil & Gas column , see http://www.asx.com.au/asxpdf/20090902/pdf/31khfnjyxq0fjv.pdf


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## seasprite (11 September 2009)

Tyler Ranch 2 Flows oil & gas
Tyler Ranch 3 will reach it's target depth in 6 to 8 days but what's most interesting is the next well Tyler ranch 4 will target the Eagle Ford shale . refer to latest http://www.asx.com.au/asxpdf/20090911/pdf/31knwfzx17g0bb.pdf


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## seasprite (18 September 2009)

good oil and gas shows at 4th well Tyler Ranch no 3 refer to http://www.asx.com.au/asxpdf/20090918/pdf/31ksmstslgtq2h.pdf


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## seasprite (1 October 2009)

tyler ranch 3 flows oil and gas  http://www.asx.com.au/asxpdf/20091001/pdf/31l2jtgnfys17s.pdf


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## Miner (1 October 2009)

seasprite said:


> tyler ranch 3 flows oil and gas  http://www.asx.com.au/asxpdf/20091001/pdf/31l2jtgnfys17s.pdf




Hmm ! 13% jump on this announcement and big volume too.
Good luck to TXN holders \
Code  	Last  	% Chg  	Bid  	Offer  	Open  	High  	Low  	Vol
TXN 	0.260 	13.04% 	0.250 	0.260 	0.250 	0.260 	0.240 	1,072,069


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## seasprite (12 October 2009)

5th Leighton well spud 10 Oct and will target Eagle Ford shale see http://www.asx.com.au/asxpdf/20091012/pdf/31l8glvf5m3pq0.pdf


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## seasprite (20 October 2009)

And again, oil & gas in Olmos then on to Eagle Ford Shale , for those who are interested http://www.asx.com.au/asx/statistics/displayAnnouncement.do?display=pdf&idsId=01000195


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## Miner (20 October 2009)

seasprite said:


> And again, oil & gas in Olmos then on to Eagle Ford Shale , for those who are interested http://www.asx.com.au/asx/statistics/displayAnnouncement.do?display=pdf&idsId=01000195




Looks like eagle Ford shale is the prime resource for TXN and many others includng ADI. Probably the later has more potential. Not knowing much on O&G Eagle Ford Shale is similar to Bowen for Coal


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## seasprite (27 October 2009)

still unclear as to what the Eagle Ford holds , drilling was cut short due to difficulties.
http://www.asx.com.au/asx/statistics/displayAnnouncement.do?display=pdf&idsId=01003138


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## Miner (27 October 2009)

seasprite said:


> still unclear as to what the Eagle Ford holds , drilling was cut short due to difficulties.
> http://www.asx.com.au/asx/statistics/displayAnnouncement.do?display=pdf&idsId=01003138




Could there be any correlation with such difficulties attributed to the region and hence ADI also declining ?


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## Bubba Oil (28 October 2009)

Miner said:


> Could there be any correlation with such difficulties attributed to the region and hence ADI also declining ?




Miner,

I would not be discouraged by the 10/27/09 press release except for the fact they were unable to reach the targeted Edwards Limestone.  With regard to the Eagle Ford they are going to do some science (electric log interpretation, petrophysical and geochemical evaluations) to see what they have.  Texon will probably drill another well targeting the Eagle Ford and can always re-enter this wellbore and take it horizontal after the Olmos is depleted.


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## seasprite (28 October 2009)

Miner said:


> Could there be any correlation with such difficulties attributed to the region and hence ADI also declining ?




target depth of the Eagle Ford was 10600 ft prior to drilling , if this still remains the case , TXN would have drilled 419 ft through the target. 

TXN remains minimum risk in my book considering the overlying Olmos will be a producer and the Eagle Ford is an added bonus pending results to come.


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## seasprite (30 October 2009)

TXN September quarterly report refer http://www.asx.com.au/asx/statistics/displayAnnouncement.do?display=pdf&idsId=01005425


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## Coff&Dream (9 November 2009)

Should we be expecting a ann concerning the eagle ford shale this week? I have my fingers crossed for good news.


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## seasprite (17 November 2009)

Coff&Dream said:


> Should we be expecting a ann concerning the eagle ford shale this week? I have my fingers crossed for good news.




TXN have increased their acreage in the region refer http://www.asx.com.au/asx/statistics/displayAnnouncement.do?display=pdf&idsId=01011530 , however there is still no news on the Eagle Ford.


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## seasprite (21 November 2009)

Coff&Dream said:


> Should we be expecting a ann concerning the eagle ford shale this week? I have my fingers crossed for good news.




I am under the impression we are onto something good here when TXN have to reduce choke diameter on a well and call it a test. Anyway this is my last stock post on this forum cause i am sick of posting to myself as I have mentioned in Pm's to other members . Besides that I am positive though that this is a stock to pick after wave 4. Apologies if i don't make sense , been tasting my first home brew and it taste good.


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## Miner (22 November 2009)

seasprite said:


> I am under the impression we are onto something good here when TXN have to reduce choke diameter on a well and call it a test. Anyway this is my last stock post on this forum cause i am sick of posting to myself as I have mentioned in Pm's to other members . Besides that I am positive though that this is a stock to pick after wave 4. Apologies if i don't make sense , been tasting my first home brew and it taste good.




Dear Seaspirite

I do recognise your frustration.
I believe there are few side liners like me who probably read your and other value based postings but unable to comment with insufficient knowledge on oil field.
But there will be other sideliners who are not willing to share their two cents in this forum too .

My only request is please do not stop posting. The fact that others are not contributed also mean they are accepting your opinion. So in a way your hard way is giving dividend to them. That is the other side of the coin story of an open forum. 

I wish others should join to encourage you to continue

Regards


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## Coff&Dream (22 November 2009)

Hi all,

as Miner has stated, I also have a limited understanding of TXN. I have been very interested to see the acquisition of more acerage when eagle shale results where expected. I intepret this in two ways either the results of the eagel shale are suspected to be good and encouraged management to acquire more land. Or an act of divergence to leverage against below expected results. (I called TXN on friday and was told to expect a release concerning the eagle ford results next week sometime.) Is it safe in assuming good results represent a signifigant upside for the share price?

Please correct  me if I am wrong, but I am lead to believe that the seismic data can be attributed to the high succes rate of drilling which concurrently stands at about 80%? Hopefully a good week ahead look forward to other's thoughts.


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## knackers007 (25 November 2009)

Coff&Dream, you were right on the first count.

Let's all hope today's announcements puts even a slight re-rating on the stock.


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## Miner (9 March 2010)

TXN thread is less visited now since Seaspirite stopped participating in ASF

I saw the announcement of 40% increased production by TXN. In oil and not in gas. But the market response on such a massive announcement lacked lustre. From 378 boepd to 535 boepd. That is a lot IMO. 

The ASX announcement was without the typical red exclaimation mark as well. 

Is that me only excited not understanding the impact of this announcement ?

TXN followers - any comments please ?


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## rcm617 (18 March 2010)

Looks like the announcement of drilling at the mosman rockingham project has done the trick and set this alight. A potential 42mmboe potential and at this stage 100% owned.


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## bazollie (13 September 2010)

I have got set into TXN for a couple of reasons. They have producing oilfields and cash in the bank, and they have a quite large lease area in the Gas and Liquids Eagleford Shale (EFS) deposit. 

If you go to TXN's website, they have a Strachan Report on the company which summarises it quite well. I was lucky enough to get in at the $0.39 cent mark and at the time the 2P reserves TXN had were worth about $0.36 alone, so any success in their EFS drilling is all for free!! 

TXN are about to drill their first EFS well ( starting in about 5-7 days time) , and this well location is very close to a well that was successful by others next door. 

Most of you readers would be aware of ADI, EKA and AUT. These companies are in the EFS business as well. 

If TXN have success with their first EFS well, expect a re-rating of this stock!

Disclaimer I hold TXN. 

Regards
Bazollie


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## Agentm (14 September 2010)

totally agree bazza

have to say i always liked the sweet sugar of success in the EFS

happily joining you on this one and i agree on the re rating

best of luck to all..


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## Agentm (15 September 2010)

this is the well plan

tyler ranch EFS 1h


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## bazollie (15 September 2010)

Agentm said:


> this is the well plan
> 
> tyler ranch EFS 1h






G'day AGENTM, This Aurora Corporation, do you know if they are the Operator that recently completed the Swift well, that is located right next door to Texon's Sweet Acreage?
I remember reading somewhere ( can't recall where ) that TXN were keen to engage the services of this operator. 

I also note that TXN's EFS has a very continous zone depth of 43m from the top end of their lease to where thet are about to drill.

Hope all goes well for this next drill,

Regards
Bazollie


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## Agentm (15 September 2010)

bazollie said:


> G'day AGENTM, This Aurora Corporation, do you know if they are the Operator that recently completed the Swift well, that is located right next door to Texon's Sweet Acreage?
> I remember reading somewhere ( can't recall where ) that TXN were keen to engage the services of this operator.
> 
> I also note that TXN's EFS has a very continous zone depth of 43m from the top end of their lease to where thet are about to drill.
> ...





hey bazza

cant confirm anything on the drillers on these wells atm..  

swift have a producing well that sits a few feet south of where tyler ranch will end.. terry swift was saying a few weeks back that they have choked the wells back big time and are extremely happy with the results and will also chase the sands play which showed up with strong indicators during the drill.
they used a 12 stage frac and got a very handy flow rate in their well that sits back to back south of the texon tyler ranch efs 1h well

things will be different in a few weeks when the news of the drilling progress gets out, pretty nice prices atm imho


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## Agentm (15 September 2010)

just a birds eye view of how close that heavily choked back well that swift have put on production is to the texon well.

they have put in 2 permits near by.. one was approved last week

this transcript from last month contains lots of very interesting perspectives on the play by terry swift and others..


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## Synergy (15 September 2010)

Highest close in over 2 years today and the run looks like it might have some legs.

Almost into blue sky territory. Looking forward to tomorrow with this one.


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## Agentm (17 September 2010)

Synergy said:


> Highest close in over 2 years today and the run looks like it might have some legs.
> 
> Almost into blue sky territory. Looking forward to tomorrow with this one.




from the presentation a few months back

Eagle Ford – Significance to TXN

• Successful well could double/triple TXN revenue
• Reserves increase
• Set scene for multi‐well EFS programme
• TXN EFS upside is 37 mmboe (1) (possibly 31 mmbbl oil)



blue sky is obvious.. this from strachan

Texon’s sale of a 20% interest in 1,280 acres of its Olmos oilfield at the Leighton permit for US$6.7 million values its retained 59% WI in this Olmos project at A$23 million or 12 cps. *The sale works out at ~A$30,000 per acre for the Olmos terrain alone and leaves Texon’s equity in the underlying Eagle Ford Shale formation unchanged at 79%*. *Recently, AWE cleaned up Adelphi’s EFS permits for an effective A$26,200 per acre. Texon holds 4,504 acres of EFS, which on this metric, should be worth $118 million or 61 cents per share fully diluted for all options.* StockAnalysis retains a buy recommendation for Texon, which clearly has an overall risked value for its Olmos and Eagle Ford Shale oil, plus other gas prospects, *of at least $1.20 per share*.



http://www.texonpetroleum.com.au/docs/investor/research2010/tplsar100721.pdf


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## adobee (17 September 2010)

Why do holders prefer TXN over AUT ?
From what I can see AUT has the much larger land holding ?
Is there any reason txn would be preferrable ?
cheers ..


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## Agentm (17 September 2010)

adobee said:


> Why do holders prefer TXN over AUT ?
> From what I can see AUT has the much larger land holding ?
> Is there any reason txn would be preferrable ?
> cheers ..




lets ask this..

which holders here are stating they are preferring txn over aut?  can you refer to the post on this thread where someone is comparing the two?

your post has no quote from anyone?????

its real nice to see that your noticing size of land holdings adobee, as the larger the land holding the more you have to dilute to cap raise.. well spotted..

re txn being preferable??  

asking for advice on this forum is pretty much frowned upon, i think if your struggling to understand what txn is about, then they have a website with a lot of information and also you can call the directors themselves and get filled in on the company that way. 

but FYI, the two are on completely different rock. in 3 different counties. it cant be compared.. txn are producing from 13 wells atm.. 

this one is yet to achieve any value from the EFS.. 

i suggest looking at this presentation for further info on the TXN ops..  hope it helps


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## bazollie (17 September 2010)

adobee said:


> Why do holders prefer TXN over AUT ?
> From what I can see AUT has the much larger land holding ?
> Is there any reason txn would be preferrable ?
> cheers ..




G'day Adobee , from what I can see , TXN have a very clean ownership of their leases, with no confusing complicated take off agreements etc.

Also , they have producing oil and gas fields with an income I believe of about $800k per month. They have no debt and $24M in the bank. 
They will be able to fund from existing and forward income all of their proposed exploration wells without having to rattle the tins and dilute our holdings like other EFS Companies had to over the last 6 months. 

The area they will be drilling in EFS is right next door to an EFS well that Swift have producing, thereby considerable de-risking what and where and when they drill their wells. 

AgentM had a link to a Swift Interview in a previous post and the information in this is excellent. Swift are helping us all by improving the way and methods of successful drilling and fraccing in the EFS area. 

All IMHO and DYOR.
I was a long term holder of ADI and I see that TXN are in the right place at the right time and have sat back and watched the EFS drilling and fraccing methods and now it's their turn to have a crack!

Regards
Bazollie


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## Agentm (17 September 2010)

bazza

the swift well imho make a compelling case in regards to the viability of the efs in the TXN acreages, their well that terry swift discussed in detail last month has generated enough interest for them to have 2 permits put in either side of the current well.

i view the liklihood of success in this TXN EFS well at an extremely high probability of success.

the acreages have so much potential with multiple targets.

i understand enough about the EFS to see how it can generate plenty of value to a company, and in the case of TXN, i look forward to that aspect coming into play.. my read on txn is that it offers a great high risk reward return for the EFS that has yet to be realised.. 

good luck to all holders


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## yma (17 September 2010)

bazollie said:


> I have got set into TXN for a couple of reasons. They have producing oilfields and cash in the bank, and they have a quite large lease area in the Gas and Liquids Eagleford Shale (EFS) deposit.
> 
> If you go to TXN's website, they have a Strachan Report on the company which summarises it quite well. I was lucky enough to get in at the $0.39 cent mark and at the time the 2P reserves TXN had were worth about $0.36 alone, so any success in their EFS drilling is all for free!!
> 
> TXN are about to drill their first EFS well ( starting in about 5-7 days time) , and this well location is very close to a well that was successful by others next door.



Hi bazollie

just wondering how long it usually take from the start of the drilling to the result release?


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## bazollie (20 September 2010)

yma said:


> Hi bazollie
> 
> just wondering how long it usually take from the start of the drilling to the result release?





G'day Yma , I would expect that the well will be started this week sometime. In one of their announcements to the ASX they are stating that the well should take about 30 days to drill. I remember reading somewhere that the Frac Crew has been contracted and I believe will be on site around the first week of November. 

The drilling crew after completion of the first well have another well for another operator and then they will return to TXN's lease to drill the 2nd Eagleford Well. 

As to the any results to be released , I would expect some news before the end of October. 

Fingers crossed on the result, but the area has certainly been de-risked due to Technological Advancements and also Operators getting smarter on how they approach the drilling and fraccing. There are wells getting completed in record times now and multi stage fraccing is achieving better and beter results as well. 

Good luck to holders, 

Regards
Bazollie


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## Kremmen (21 September 2010)

Agentm said:


> which holders here are stating they are preferring txn over aut?  can you refer to the post on this thread where someone is comparing the two?




Investments are a choice. It stands to reason that those who buy into TXN prefer it to other stocks, otherwise they would buy those other stocks instead.

Nobody has compared the two, but they should. I think it would be great if there was a thread specifically for that kind of analysis because the whole point is, after all, to invest for the best return. Having decided that oil exploration/production is a good investment, even narrowing it down to Eagleford still leaves quite a number of choices.


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## Agentm (23 September 2010)

the drilling commences

txn will potentially be an eagleford producer pretty soon, and the potential value for the reserves for them is yet to be accounted for in the sp, my experience in investing in these small caps says that in all cases once a well is drilling the sp usually increases on speculation, and then post the drilling and once the wells results are disclosed a great deal of the upside value from the play starts to impact further on the sp..

looking forward to the EFS value to impact on txn myself..

good luck to all holders


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## bazollie (29 September 2010)

Not sure why this thread is so quiet? 
Have a look at the AUT and EKA thread and the posts and huge interest! These 2 companies are in the Eagleford Shale Gas Business with drilling and success. Their respective SP's have appreciated very well over the last month or so. 

A lot of these EFS acreages have now been de-risked through Technological Improvements and Best Practise Innovations that have seen wells drilled faster and achieve greater fraccing results. 

TXN are almost a week into their first EFS Well and hardly a murmur from anyone about this. There is about a 3 week wait until we hear if the well has intersected the 40 odd metre gas zone that is prominent in areas right next door them. The fraccing crew should start in November so we should hear results by end of November. 

TXN's back of the envelope valuation (compared to AUT based on AUT's share price, acreages held and number of shares on issue) would be up around the $1 mark. It seems that TXN doesn't have the following that other EFS companies do , so scratching my head here?

Regards
Bazollie


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## UBIQUITOUS (29 September 2010)

bazollie said:


> Not sure why this thread is so quiet?
> Have a look at the AUT and EKA thread and the posts and huge interest! These 2 companies are in the Eagleford Shale Gas Business with drilling and success. Their respective SP's have appreciated very well over the last month or so.
> 
> A lot of these EFS acreages have now been de-risked through Technological Improvements and Best Practise Innovations that have seen wells drilled faster and achieve greater fraccing results.
> ...




US onshore production is hot at the moment but it's all amount where the money is at the time ie which cab is moving. 

TXN have a market cap of about $100m and are looking of 900boepd of oil and gas by the end of Q1 2011. We all know AUT have gone, but lets look at a US onshore spec/producer that is moving - SEA. They have a market cap this morning of about $90m but have just forecast 900bopd (no gas included) by Dec 2010. Then there is SSN after them.

Once stocks like this become relatively more overvalued than TXN, then the money will begin to look for a relatively undervalued play, and that will be TXN. TXN remain on my watchlist with a view to enter later on in the year once fraccing is complete


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## Agentm (29 September 2010)

hey bazza

i am still buying atm.. so i dont mind it being too quiet

imho the sp will rise up to a decent level in the near future, speculation on the eagleford aspect of the play, and the future prospect of the eagleford becoming part of the valuation of TXN can mean some nice days ahead

good luck to all holders


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## condog (29 September 2010)

Agent once again your what i refer to as an early entrant. It carries risk and reward. You learned this on ADI. 
 You where years to early on ADI and abandoned AUt at the exact wrong time. Your knowledge of the eaglefor is amazing, but so far your timing of investment in the eagleford has been questionable. I believe you got about 20c per share out of AUT and yet its actually grown from 25c to $1.48 int he time ve been in it. 

In reference to AUT vs TXN, its simple AUT now are at a premium for a good reason, they have proven reserves, proven acerage, proven operator and multiple wells flowing to sales and about to be cash flow positive from those wells. Sure its growth curve will slow, temporarily, but as you well know in 2011, they have three rigs and a FT frac crew which should technically see almost 1.5 times the 2010 growth, all other factors being equal. 50 wells planned for 2011.

In contrast TXN is in the early stages. Presumably, but not certain its acerage is good, its operator skills ????? but heats the risk v reward trade off. IT is higher risk then AUt, but its also higher reward if it turns out to be great.

I have cast the net over all shale player and so far only SEA and AUT have enticed me to part with my cash.


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## Agentm (30 September 2010)

bazollie said:


> Not sure why this thread is so quiet?
> Have a look at the AUT and EKA thread and the posts and huge interest! These 2 companies are in the Eagleford Shale Gas Business with drilling and success. Their respective SP's have appreciated very well over the last month or so.
> 
> A lot of these EFS acreages have now been de-risked through Technological Improvements and Best Practise Innovations that have seen wells drilled faster and achieve greater fraccing results.
> ...




agree on what you say bazza

i think the thread may get a little more action in the coming weeks bazza

the well is about one week in atm,  real early days right now. and the swift well south of the tyler ranch 1h had some great reports on it from swift, it was heavily choked back and they managed to get a nice flow rate out of it. which certainly indicates the region may not be underchaged..

early money seems to be flowing towards txn atm.. and txn imho will need to be seriously re rated if any of the efs value commences to impact on the share.

early days still..


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## UBIQUITOUS (30 September 2010)

Agentm said:


> agree on what you say bazza
> 
> i think the thread may get a little more action in the coming weeks bazza
> 
> ...




Well something is up. There's not much on the sell side at all. I think some AUT money maybe flowing this way.


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## Agentm (30 September 2010)

UBIQUITOUS said:


> Well something is up. There's not much on the sell side at all. I think some AUT money maybe flowing this way.




doubt it

the share has been out there for a long time..  

it certainly got my cash over the last few weeks..  but its just a case of a share that has to achieve some of its value in a new play EFS as the exploration well is drilled..

they have a small lateral already producing and swift has a fully completed and successful commercial well only a few hundred feet south of the first well for texon.

its being pushed hard by a brokers who have it as their no1 stock pick atm.. so its likely to re rate as the EFS well results come in and the acreages it holds becomes part of its valuation..

this company has many successful wells producing atm, and is turning a profit.. totally in the black atm..

will expect some upside on this one shortly imho

good luck to all holders


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## Agentm (30 September 2010)

speeding ticket for txn

this from the directors today in the reply

The Lennox well referred to in the Company’s release of 13 September 2010 has reached its target depth and electric logs will now be run. These logs will determine whether the well contains commercially producible oil or gas.


The initiation of drilling of the Company’s first Eagle Ford well was announced on 23 September 2010. This well is currently at a depth of 7,500 feet and has not yet reached its objective which will be at a vertical depth of about 10,500 feet. It is possible that the well will reach the Eagle Ford target in the next 7-10 days


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## Agentm (5 October 2010)

as posted by another poster on another forum.. this chart demonstrates (apparently)  there is still some further upside to come







my personal view is that any success in the EFS shale well that is drilling atm will give the share some significant upside as the EFS valuation comes into play


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## kash (7 October 2010)

Agent
EFS shale well should be hitting depth in next couple of days. How long to get results?? Looking forward to this, should create some interest.


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## Agentm (9 October 2010)

the well would be drilling the horizontal atm..

the speculation money will start to impact on the txn share in the next few weeks.. there are signs of a lot of early starters getting in atm.. i would expect a flurry of buying as txn announces the successful completion of the well..

someone posted a little of the recent patterson report on another site

_Scott Simpson an analyst @ Patersons Securities released a 12 page piece of research on TXN.

Using NPV methodology he's given a value of $0.98/share but includes a comment about their unrisked value >$3.

Nice to see a broker other than RBS supporting it! here's the first page unedited:

Investment Highlights

We are initiating coverage on TXN with a BUY recommendation and a price target of $0.98/sh. TXN is underpinned by proven production and reserves from the Olmos reservoir at its Leighton project area, with substantial upside to be realised from appraisal of 4,516 net acres of Eagle Ford shale (EFS) and further appraisal of Olmos reservoir across its Mosman/Rockingham project area. TXN is currently drilling its first EFS appraisal well, located in the oily window of the shale some 200m from Swift energy??s recent well - which flowed with an IP of 775bopd and 1.1mmscf/d (958boepd).

Underpinned by a proven and productive Olmos reservoir at Leighton. TXN has completed 7 wells on its Leighton area with an average IP of 423boepd and net 2P reserves of 2mmboe. The Olmos reservoir is located above the EFS at ~9,000ft and is produced via vertical wells at a cost of ~US$1m per well. There are some 35 possible well locations in its acreage at 40-acre spacing. One Olmos well has been drilled in the Mosman/Rockingham area, achieving a lower IP of 110boepd. Hence further appraisal is required to de-risk the reservoir and 51 possible well locations.

First Eagle Ford well to test substantial upside. Drilling of the Tyler Ranch EFS #1H is currently underway (82% WI) with a second well planned for Mosman/Rockingham in late 2010 (100% WI). TXN stands to benefit substantially from the successful appraisal of the EFS across its net 4,516 acres. We currently value its EFS assets at $0.49/sh on a risked full-field development basis, with unrisked value of +$2/sh. Subsequent drilling will provide key information on IP rates and production performance and de-risk the asset.


Successful appraisal of acreage to realise substantial upside. Subject to successful appraisal of the Olmos and Eagle Ford shale across TXN??s entire acreage, our analysis highlights total unrisked value of +$3/sh. The company is well funded to pursue an active drilling program commencing in late 2010 with its second EFS well and another in Q2 2011, 6 Olmos wells plus the drilling of 3 x additional prospects outside this core area over 2011. _


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## Synergy (10 October 2010)

I expect to see some significant movement early this week with 60c forming new support. Time will tell...


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## kash (11 October 2010)

This hopeful stir that action.
 FIRST EAGLE FORD HORIZONTAL WELL 
                                             GOOD OIL AND GAS SHOWS 

Texon Petroleum Ltd (“Texon”) advises that the Tyler Ranch EFS #1H well has drilled into the Eagle 
Ford Shale at the depth of 3,252m (10,670ft) and has encountered good oil and gas shows. 

The well will now drill 1,372m (4,500ft) laterally within the Eagle Ford at which time production casing 
will be run. Drilling and casing the well are anticipated to take 12-14 days. 

Hydraulic fracture stimulation and testing of the well are scheduled for early November.


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## Agentm (11 October 2010)

kash said:


> This hopeful stir that action.
> FIRST EAGLE FORD HORIZONTAL WELL
> GOOD OIL AND GAS SHOWS
> 
> ...





i think your right on that front..

the news is very welcome


there are 2 ways you can report a well,  one can be cut and dry, no trimmings, and another is to let the market know with a few words that your liking what your seeing..   and imho these guys are liking what they're seeing in the EFS


Texon Petroleum Ltd (“Texon”) advises that the Tyler Ranch EFS #1H well has drilled into the Eagle Ford Shale at the depth of 3,252m (10,670ft) and has encountered good oil and gas shows. 


good luck to all holders


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## Kremmen (11 October 2010)

Agentm said:


> Texon Petroleum Ltd (“Texon”) advises that the Tyler Ranch EFS #1H well has drilled into the Eagle Ford Shale at the depth of 3,252m (10,670ft) and has encountered good oil and gas shows.




Sounds good. Having read about the increasing lack of crews and rigs in the area, I wonder if you know if Texon own/operate their own drilling equipment in Eagle Ford?


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## Agentm (11 October 2010)

Kremmen said:


> Sounds good. Having read about the increasing lack of crews and rigs in the area, I wonder if you know if Texon own/operate their own drilling equipment in Eagle Ford?






on another site the information given was that nabors will be drilling the EFS well and then halliburton will be doing the frac.

the frac is announced as early Nov.. 

TXN have it in mind to commence a second well in this quarter, imho it would commence post the frac of the tyler ranch 1H well


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## bazollie (11 October 2010)

Agentm said:


> on another site the information given was that nabors will be drilling the EFS well and then halliburton will be doing the frac.
> 
> the frac is announced as early Nov..
> 
> TXN have it in mind to commence a second well in this quarter, imho it would commence post the frac of the tyler ranch 1H well




I read in a previous announcement from TXN that after this well is drilled, the drilling crew have 1 well to drill for another operator. After this well is completed, they will be back to drill the second well, & I am assuming that it will be in late November / early December. 
Either way , with luck we should hopefully see 2 wells drilled and fracced by year end, and with more and more expertise gathering of the fraccing and completions we are hoping for some positive results in a timely manner. 

Good luck to all holders, holding TXN for some results and more!

Regards
Bazollie


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## Agentm (15 October 2010)

15 October 2010

*SECOND EAGLE FORD HORIZONTAL WELL COMMENCING LATE OCTOBER*

Texon advises that it has contracted a rig for its second Eagle Ford horizontal well, Mosman-Rockingham EFS #1H (MR EFS #1H), which will be drilled on its Mosman/Rockingham leases.

The well is expected to begin drilling by the end of October and take 30 days to drill. The Eagle Ford is 140’ thick with good oil and gas shows in nearby vertical wells such as Texon’s Mosman/Rockingham #1 drilled in March 2010 (see Texon’s announcement of 6 April 2010).

MR EFS #1H is located in the northern part of the Mosman/Rockingham leases, some 4.2 km south of a Swift Eagle Ford well which flowed at an initial rate of 860 boepd (gas converted at 12/1) and 8.8 km north of another Swift Eagle Ford well which flowed at an initial rate of 1,200 boepd (gas converted at 12/1) – refer to attached map.

The Mosman/Rockingham leases cover 3,273 acres and Texon has an overall 96.6% Working Interest (72.4% NRI) in this area. Texon’s holding in the MR EFS #1H is 100% Working Interest (75% NRI).

Several other Eagle Ford wells are planned by other operators (Swift, XTO, Enduring) in the vicinity of Texon’s Leighton / Mosman / Rockingham leases and these are also shown on the map.

Please refer to Texon’s website for announcements by the Company: www.texonpetroleum.com.au
Oil and gas futures prices (Source: NYMEX November 2010 contracts)
Oil: US$82.73/bbl
Gas: US$3.65/mmbtu (approx. US$4.80/mcf for all Texon gas – including US$5.80/mcf for Leighton Olmos gas)


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## Mofra (19 October 2010)

60c ST support broken on TXN, will be interesting to watch how the market unfolds from here. May not be too much action until the end of November until progress is reported on the second EF well.


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## Agentm (25 October 2010)

25 October 2010

FIRST EAGLE FORD WELL
TESTING – MID NOVEMBER

Texon advises that it has finished drilling its first Eagle Ford well (TR EFS #1H). *Strong oil and gas shows were observed throughout drilling 4,500ft horizontally within the Eagle Ford reservoir.* Production casing has been run in preparation for the fracture stimulation which has been contracted and is expected to begin in the second week of November. After this work has been completed, the well will be production tested with results anticipated in the second half of November.

Texon has a 82% Working Interest


all systems go really

a nice completion without complications. 4500 feet of well ready for testing
and with strong gas and oil shows as well

as good as it gets i think


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## bazollie (25 October 2010)

Very interesting 4 weeks coming up for TXN. Horizontal completed with strong shows along the way. Frac coming up soon as well. This well is situated in a very prospective area and if the results are favourable will give TXN a very good idea of when, how many and where the next round of wells will be commenced. 

All good times ahead IMHO
Regards
Bazollie


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## Mofra (26 October 2010)

Nabucca gas flow ann this morning - is 442 mcfgpb a little low?

At US$4.80 mcf for Texon gas, that's US$2,121.60 or US$689.52 per day for Texon's share. I now hold a small parcel of TXN but this sounds disappointing.


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## Agentm (26 October 2010)

the real story on the txn share is its drive upwards as it achieves new value for the EFS, something it has yet to achieve to any degree

drilling for oil is about turning a discovery into a profit. and managing that with minimal share dilution.

where txn is particularly lucky is that it has these producing wells, giving it positive cashflow,  now it can look at the efs seriously, drill two wells and with that the share should in all liklihood achieve some of that efs value

my view is that the roadshow txn took last week in boston and NY, will attract some US based interest also, so lets see if the good news continues

imho money for txn will start to flow in the coming few weeks ahead,,,

you may see some sp re-ratings in the near term

good luck to all holders


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## bazollie (27 October 2010)

Agentm said:


> the real story on the txn share is its drive upwards as it achieves new value for the EFS, something it has yet to achieve to any degree
> 
> drilling for oil is about turning a discovery into a profit. and managing that with minimal share dilution.
> 
> ...




Totally agree AgentM , come late November/Early December we should see some of the value of EFS in the S.P. The well just completed was not in the EFS so results will understandably be much lower than a horizontal frac result similar to what we've seen right next door. 

What I really like about TXN is that they have cash flow from producing oil and gas wells, so in theory won't have to go back and rattle the tin with existing holders. The other thing I like about TXN is the simple ownership structure/ farm in that they have across their leases. No major complicated partnerships. 

Really looking forward to the next 4 weeks to see if we have what the neighbours have proven right next door!

Regards
Bazollie


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## Agentm (27 October 2010)

hey bazza

 "The well just completed was not in the EFS so results will understandably be much lower than a horizontal frac result similar to what we've seen right next door."


i gather you mean the flow report on the well from yesterday



"NAMBUCCA FLOWS GAS
Texon advises that the recently drilled Nambucca well has tested gas at the gross rate of 442 mcfgpd from the Yegua reservoir through a 10/64” choke at 750 psi.
The well will be connected to the same gas sales pipeline as the recent Lennox discovery in the next 2-3 weeks."




the eagleford shale well just completed by Texon and fraccing in a few weeks is the 4500 foot long Tyler Ranch 1h

the second EFS well is labelled by Texon as follows in a recent announcement

Mosman-Rockingham EFS #1H (MR EFS #1H).  and imho should be drilling right about now, i expect announcements on that any time now

but interestingly the well is not called that on the RRC..

its a 6000 foot lateral (if they want to complete it to that length, and if its practical to) which is far longer than the first well of 4500 feet

the well is called Teal Ranch EFS 1H







in the past months there has been a huge flood of permits into the EFS in mcmullen county by many operators..

imho TXN are on the money here..

i am backing them in and increasing my position week by week..


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## Hatchy (29 October 2010)

6000ft lateral - surely if they actually go that length then it will be one of the longest in the EFS? 

I can't remember ADI's ever being that long, but the tech is getting better and better.  

Hopefully the shale is stable enough in that area for them to complete the full length, sure would be a good producer if it shows good oil and gas across a full 6000ft! 

Hi AgentM,
What can you comment on the skill of the people hired to drill these TXN wells? Are they as skilled as the people that were doing the Hilcorp wells?

Cheers


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## gerkin02 (29 October 2010)

Petrohawk are drilling or have completed an intended 8000ft lateral in Mcmullen county.

All the best.


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## Agentm (29 October 2010)

nabors drilled the first

not sure on who the driller is on the second well

from my understandings, the completions are to be done by halliburton, whom have so far the best experience in the efs

i think the decision to drill 6000 feet or shorter will be made once they have the first well fracced. the plan is for 6000 feet max if they want to go to that length


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## Guardian (29 October 2010)

Am i reading right that in Sep quarterly statement that MR Olmos #1 is only producing 9bopd.

GUARDIAN


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## Sdajii (29 October 2010)

Guardian said:


> Am i reading right that in Sep quarterly statement that MR Olmos #1 is only producing 9bopd.
> 
> GUARDIAN




I saw that too, at the end of page four. Seems.... odd.

TXN TXN TXN um... I hold TXN.


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## happytown (11 November 2010)

fraccing of tyler-ranch 1h should begin this weekend or thereabouts, with results expected sometime before end of month

drilling of mosman-rockingham 1h should also commence this weekend or thereabouts

the approx timeframes for both of the above come form their recent 1 nov ann

interesting couple of weeks ahead for txn


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## Agentm (12 November 2010)

happytown said:


> fraccing of tyler-ranch 1h should begin this weekend or thereabouts, with results expected sometime before end of month
> 
> drilling of mosman-rockingham 1h should also commence this weekend or thereabouts
> 
> ...




its all about to happen for txn, and my last minute orders were only partially hit and are just sitting there, best i can hope for is a market shake down and perhaps get a few hits..

EFS value will start to creep in during the nov-dec  months as news flow comes through

frac design is pretty interesting, and i have a lot of expectations for the possibility of the initial EFS well achieving flow.. infact i have little doubt at all really..

market is yet to factor success in, but its only a time thing and and of course success in the frac

best of luck to all holders, txn will soon be doubling their current production rates in a heart beat imho


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## Mofra (12 November 2010)

Cheers for the update Agent, I've taken a position in TXN primarily for the Eagle Ford exposure, noting Olmos had (at my last count) 24 proved & probable locations for wells with a couple more to be drilled out of cashflows in 2011.

Not expecting big spurts on this TBH, just a slow grower over time as flows increase.


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## Agentm (12 November 2010)

Mofra said:


> Cheers for the update Agent, I've taken a position in TXN primarily for the Eagle Ford exposure, noting Olmos had (at my last count) 24 proved & probable locations for wells with a couple more to be drilled out of cashflows in 2011.
> 
> Not expecting big spurts on this TBH, just a slow grower over time as flows increase.




i know a few guys out there in mcmullen working on various EFS and Almos wells..

the reports i hear are very encouraging, and in particular the region Texon is in east of Tilden.. i think they mentioned a new rig they saw up there could be the next texon well.. 


swift gave a huge rap for the EFS and almos sands in their webcast  a few days back

having a lot of trouble seeing the well fail, with a swift well doing close to 1000 bopd ip next to the texon well thats about to frac and with production from a vertical well into the EFS atm...


things look great for the next few weeks.. lets see if sellers like selling at these prices for a long time to come or not..

best of luck.. its all about to start imho


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## Mofra (12 November 2010)

Agentm said:


> having a lot of trouble seeing the well fail, with a swift well doing close to 1000 bopd ip next to the texon well thats about to frac and with production from a vertical well into the EFS atm...



That is definately positive news, production at lower than that would be very good news after a few lower than expected showings (inlcuding the last gas ann).


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## happytown (15 November 2010)

happytown said:


> fraccing of tyler-ranch 1h should begin this weekend or thereabouts, with results expected sometime before end of month
> 
> drilling of mosman-rockingham 1h should also commence this weekend or thereabouts
> 
> ...




txn ann'd earlier this morning

mosman-rockingham 1h commenced drilling 12/11/10, expected to reach td by mid-dec

tyler-ranch 1h fraccing delayed for a week or two, with results now expected approx mid-dec


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## Ramblin Round (16 November 2010)

Hey gang. Just got in on Texon. I am hearing good things form eveyone in this area. The frac announcments hopefully will welcome some handsome engagements for Texon. What is demonstrated from what I have read here is that those acreages are prime Eagle Ford country. Enjoy the ride.


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## Mofra (16 November 2010)

Ramblin Round said:


> Hey gang. Just got in on Texon. I am hearing good things form eveyone in this area. The frac announcments hopefully will welcome some handsome engagements for Texon. What is demonstrated from what I have read here is that those acreages are prime Eagle Ford country. Enjoy the ride.



Cheers Ramblin, and good luck. I like the announcements that indicate we whoudl be receiving further drilling results before the end of the year - Eagle Ford exposure (in conjunction with a bit of other digging around) was the major reason I took a position.


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## Agentm (16 November 2010)

hey ramblin

i like the EFS aspect of this share myself, they have a lot of producing wells going for them right now, and a few efs wells will continue to make a nice return for texon, they have a real high % on these acreages, and very little dilution. 

i really think texon have planned the frac design well, and i am extremely interested in the result of this well coming up in the next few weeks.


good luck to all investors


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## Agentm (21 November 2010)

anyone seen this type of detailed TA on a share..

i would appreciate some comment from holders, and particularly those whom follow TA approaches to trading

this was placed on youtube a few hours ago by haspete.

with the next news stop being the frac of the well, i wonder how the comments from haspete will translate in the future,,


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## Hatchy (22 November 2010)

I'm not sure that his TA will stand up to the Fundamentals that will be the fraccing of the well and drilling of the next well. He may well be correct in the share finding resistance back to 52c though before the fundamentals take over. 

I have and always will be a TA skeptic when it comes to fundamentally based shares like explorers. 

Hatchy


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## Agentm (26 November 2010)

the fundamental frac and the fundamental drilling of the 2nd EFS well imho are all going to plan

the prices being seen atm are pretty amazing considering txn will in a very short period of time be practically doubling its oil and gas production

despite being heavily loaded into this share, i am beginning to look at taking another swipe at the share at these prices.. the temptation is becoming too much..

looking forward to the announcements in the near term as txn updates on the progress of the frac and the progress on the drill of the second well.


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## Agentm (29 November 2010)

seeing as i went to all the effort to put this together on another site, i thought i would post it here as well

there is a lot of good indicators that the EFS will flow for texon.. 

looking forward to the results in the next few weeks


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## kash (29 November 2010)

Thanks agent for the post. I feel the delays have cause a drift down in price. I have increased my holding to get in before the fracc results hopefully coming in next few weeks. With this happening interest should flow back into txn


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## Agentm (6 December 2010)

texon announced a frac of its first eagleford shale well last week

ASX Release

3 December 2010

FIRST EAGLE FORD WELL -

TESTING PROGRAMME BEGINS

Fracture stimulation and testing of Texon’s first Eagle Ford lateral well (TR EFS #1H) commenced on Thursday 2 December, 2010 (Houston time). The Eagle Ford reservoir has become a premium resource play evidenced by the 657 Eagle Ford drilling permits that have been granted in the first 9 months of 2010, compared with 94 for the whole of 2009. (Source: Railroad Commission Of Texas, Developing Unconventional Gas Conference, 2010).
The overall programme of fracture stimulation of the well and recovery of the frac fluid is expected to take about two weeks and at the end of which the well will be production tested.


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## Trader Paul (11 December 2010)

Hi folks,

TXN ..... looking for a positive time cycle to close the week,
just ahead of anticipated testing results, from their current well.

have a great weekend

  paul



=====


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## Agentm (13 December 2010)

hey paul

the 2 weeks are coming to a close, so the timing is pretty much spot on. its 11 days in and it was expected to take no more than 14 days

the well frac operation should be in it final moments, so i expect the production testing to be fairly soon.

good luck to all holders


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## Miner (16 December 2010)

Trader Paul said:


> Hi folks,
> 
> TXN ..... looking for a positive time cycle to close the week,
> just ahead of anticipated testing results, from their current well.
> ...






Agentm said:


> hey paul
> 
> the 2 weeks are coming to a close, so the timing is pretty much spot on. its 11 days in and it was expected to take no more than 14 days
> 
> ...




Good morning

Today is 16th dec surpassing the 14 day waiting. should we expect an announcement by friday close of business 

I am keenly following the stars on the sky and gas from the sea


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## Miner (16 December 2010)

Miner said:


> Good morning
> 
> Today is 16th dec surpassing the 14 day waiting. should we expect an announcement by friday close of business
> 
> I am keenly following the stars on the sky and gas from the sea




Hmm

It looks like stars are shining and gas has started flowing today.
TXN is already 5.4% up.

Let us hope the gas flow is continued and there is no cloud on the sky on Friday night tomorrow and thereafter for seeing the shiny stars


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## Miner (16 December 2010)

Am I getting too excited ? 

The report published in ASX is interesting but not unusual if we see in companies like BHP and likes to have similar policy.

What makes me excited  the time of announcement of this report just before an announcemnt scheduled to be made. The TXN has now gone up by more than 7 % but the volume remains average. 
Is the management guessing something having leaked in the market ? 

Should I speculate 2+2 =5 and something being hatched which making the board to publish such information on ASX ?

Time will only tell us.


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## Agentm (16 December 2010)

would be nice to get an update on the well they are drilling and progress on the frac at tyler ranch 1H

The Company has a 82% Working Interest (61.6% Net Revenue Interest) in the TR EFS #1H well

long ago i was in adi which held about 10% NRI.. so 6 wells for ADI back then is equivalent to 1 Texon well into the EFS

the second EFS  has texon with a 100% Working Interest (75% Net Revenue Interest). its called the MR EFS #1H  but on the RRC website you can track it by looking for the Teal Ranch EFS 1H

its going to be any day now imho before the results will surface fro the texon holders. will be real nice to have them prior to christmas

good luck to all holders and that includes the astrological trader paul!!


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## Miner (16 December 2010)

Agentm said:


> would be nice to get an update on the well they are drilling and progress on the frac at tyler ranch 1H
> 
> The Company has a 82% Working Interest (61.6% Net Revenue Interest) in the TR EFS #1H well
> 
> ...




Agentm

Thanks for your very thoughtful analysis as always

There are three solid elements in this thread:
1. TXN itself with great future
2. Your ADI success story and excellent technical analysis
3. Trader Paul's starry analysis over vodka considering good pre Christmas sale is going on 


I am waiting on side line to get the low hanging fruit as Christmas bonus


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## Agentm (17 December 2010)

swift energy last month disclosed on a press release spending

November 10, 2010: PRESS RELEASE. Swift Energy announced a preliminary 2011 capital budget of $430 million to $450 million to cover an accelerated drilling program with a production growth goal of 25% to 30% and a reserves growth goal of 15% to 20%. Approximately 75% to 80% of the capital budget will be spent in our South Texas core area, much of it on drilling oil and condensate development wells on acreage proved up in 2010 in the Eagle Ford shale and Olmos sands. The remainder will be directed towards oil production in our Southeast Louisiana core area and high-rate Austin Chalk oil and natural gas development wells in our Central Louisiana/East Texas core area. This program will be partially funded by proceeds from a public offering of 3 million shares of the companys common stock also announced on November 10.




the swift presentation released a few days ago is very comprehensive

worth a review and it covers the activities in mcmullen county

demonstrates swift is serious about the almos sands as well as the eagleford shale in mcmullen county

which is right next door to texons acreages

texon acreages is on the 5th slide


----------



## philly (19 December 2010)

We are now well overdue in relation to news from both the EFS wells. There have not been any ASX announcements since 3/12/10. At that time we were told that fraccing of the TR EFS well would be completed within 14 days. If there had been a problem then I would have expected an announcement. Hopefully we will get good news this week and there will be a run on the SP leading to the Christmas break  I am a holder.


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## Miner (19 December 2010)

philly said:


> We are now well overdue in relation to news from both the EFS wells. There have not been any ASX announcements since 3/12/10. At that time we were told that fraccing of the TR EFS well would be completed within 14 days. If there had been a problem then I would have expected an announcement. Hopefully we will get good news this week and there will be a run on the SP leading to the Christmas break  I am a holder.




Philly
I would say patience is a virtue and no news is good news.
Considering most of the people are bit tipsy during the weekends, Fridays attending lunches, dinners prior to Christmas.
So I will not call names to TXN directors  for delaying one or two days so long they are not unfolding unreasonable coverups for the delays

DYOR and me too is a holder


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## Miner (20 December 2010)

for a moment I thought to have seen a posting from Agentm about this TXN  announcement,
But could not find Agentm's posting - may be under editing
Any way announcement as it came in ASX.
Good work Agentm and Trader Paul for bringing out the prediction of Christmas gift.
Starrs have signed and gas (fluid I meant) flown 



Thanks folks 


http://asx.com.au/asx/statistics/announcements.do?by=asxCode&asxCode=TXN&timeframe=D&period=W

Could not attach the document due to new system is slightly unknown to me to allow attachments - Joe - please look into this and if you can post some brief guidelines on the changes for computer illiterates like me in the Mark III thread as well


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## Agentm (20 December 2010)

stunning success in the first well imho




FIRST EAGLE FORD WELL

1,200 BOPD


Texon advises that its first Eagle Ford well, Tyler Ranch EFS #1H, has flowed 1,267 boepd(1) representing 1,202 bpd of light sweet crude oil and 782 mcfpd of gas with a flowing tubing pressure of 2610 psi through a 16/64” choke. Some of the frac fluid is also still being recovered.

The gas has a high heating value of approximately 1,250 mmbtu per thousand cubic feet(2) so at a Henry Hub gas price of US$4.00/mmbtu, the Company would receive US$6.40/mcf.

Texon’s working interest in the well is 82%. Texon’s beneficial interest (NRI) in the production is 61.6% or some 780 boepd of the above production.

The Company’s share of oil and gas being produced from the well is now part of Texon’s revenue stream.

Texon has a 92% working interest in approximately 5,000 gross acres in the Leighton, Mosman, Rockingham and Sutton leases (“LMRS”) which surround or are nearby to Texon’s first Eagle Ford well. The Eagle Ford reservoir is expected to be present throughout these leases.

Texon’s nett Eagle Ford acreage holding is 4,550 acres which could represent a resource potential of some 30-34 mmboe as to the Company’s working interest or 23–26 mmboe as to Texon’s net revenue interest in these leases.

Texon already has 8 producing Olmos wells on its LMRS leases as well as existing oil and gas production facilities. The facilities include oil and gas separation equipment, oil tanks, measurement systems and connections to gas pipelines.

These facilities have enabled the immediate tie-in to sales of the oil and gas being produced from the first Eagle Ford well.

David Mason said “this is a very good outcome for the Company and the result significantly enhances the value of Texon’s overall Eagle Ford, Olmos and facilities holdings in its 5,000 acres of Leighton, Mosman, Rokingham and Sutton leases”.


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## Agentm (20 December 2010)

from another thread  - http://www.hotcopper.com.au/post_threadview.asp?fid=1&tid=1338726&msgno=6104127#6104127

Just sent from RBS analyst Chris Brown: with the subject "TXN - Above "expectations", closer to "hopes""

Texon Petroleum (TXN)
Market Cap: A$716m
Share price: A$0.62
Price target: A$0.70 (to be revised upwards to Fair Value)
Up/(down) to target: 69%
Fair value: A$1.05
Subject: Eagle Ford Shale production test



Key points:
* Point 1 - Texon has a working interest of 82% and a Net Revenue Interest of 61.6% in the first horizontal well to test of the Eagle Ford Shale - Tyler Ranch EFS #H1 - in the Leighton leases.
* Point 2 - Production testing reported a flow rate of 1,267boepd - made up of 1,202bbls of sweet light crude oil per day and 782mcfpd of gas. the gas has a high calorific value of 1,250mmbtu, worth US$6.40/mcf at a US$4.00 Henry Hub gas price.
* Point 3 - This is at the top end of expectations, with fraccing fluid still being recovered.
* Point 4 - This test confirms that the EFS is liquids rich in the Leighton leases.
Investment view - The test of the second EFS well will take place in February. A positive result would be taken to confirm that the 4,924 acres in which TXN has an interest are in the liquids rich window, and add to our valuation and target price.


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## philly (20 December 2010)

Well I am very happy with this announcement  Worth the wait!

I'll try to put the TXN result in some sort of context I note that AUT also announced some production results from their EFS leases today as follows:
LUNA - 931 boepd, KOWALIK - 735 boepd & URRUTIA - 954 boepd 

The TR EFS well flowed at just over 1200 boepd so it is a killer at this stage.
Lets hope that the results from the MR EFS well in the new year are as good.

Merry Christmas and a Happy New Year to all holders .


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## Agentm (20 December 2010)

totally agree philly

i think no one understands how good that first well of texon really is

good value in the share right now imho


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## J&M (20 December 2010)

Good Stock Agentm 

Thanks for all the updates up around 12% on my holding 

Merry christmas to all holders 

onwards and upwards with this one 

Cheers
James


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## Agentm (20 December 2010)

J&M said:


> Good Stock Agentm
> 
> Thanks for all the updates up around 12% on my holding
> 
> ...




i saw a research note from patersons which puts TXN at $1.05

that note will no doubt hit the new texon website in the coming days, but its out in the hands of their client base for the time being

some heavy buying today..

imho the upside of texon is far better than anything seen today, i see our astrological guru ducked out today on a quick run. and i have no doubt he has many followers

good on him and his astrology was spot on

holding and accumulating.. 

with the major shareholder running the show.. i am keeping my cash with dave mason

he is proving, week in week out that they are delivering and they have the right plans in place

best of luck to all holders


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## Ramblin Round (21 December 2010)

Wow we have just witnessed a VERY nice jump today for Texon today.


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## Agentm (21 December 2010)

Ramblin Round said:


> Wow we have just witnessed a VERY nice jump today for Texon today.




i read somewhere that The Tyler Ranch #1H is the company’s first Eagle Ford shale well, drilled in the Leighton project area in which the company has a WI of 82% across 1,651 gross acres. The well exceeded expectations, given Swift Energy’s San Miguel #1H which is located immediately to the south and flowed at an IP of 775bopd and 1.1mmscf/d and confirms the project area is located in a productive area of the volatile gas/oil window of the shale. The IP confirmed that the fraccing was well executed which should have positive implications for longer term production performance.


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## pixel (21 December 2010)

second well shows similar characteristics as the first 

http://www.asx.com.au/asx/statistics/displayAnnouncement.do?display=pdf&idsId=01134956

? why then do they start fraccing only in March ??


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## Agentm (21 December 2010)

pixel said:


> second well shows similar characteristics as the first
> 
> http://www.asx.com.au/asx/statistics/displayAnnouncement.do?display=pdf&idsId=01134956
> 
> ? why then do they start fraccing only in March ??




90 days is pretty good atm..

some drillers are drilling a cluster of wells then fraccing on mass

real hard to get proppants, crews and equipment..

i am told in the coming months the problems of delays will be sorted out.. its a wrok in progress for all operators

90 days delays is brilliant really.. 

3 olmos sands wells get drilled in january 2011 all self funded..


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## Mofra (21 December 2010)

Definately turned the corner - both wells at ~1,200 BOPD is an outstanding result and unlike some of the other shale-fraccing plays in the US TXN holds majority working interest in their wells. Considering switching some of my SEA holding into TXN, volume permitting.


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## J&M (21 December 2010)

I sold a few of AUT to get into this at .565 glad I did
needed to wait a while before it took off 
but happy about this stock now up 20%


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## philly (21 December 2010)

Today's announcement  that the Teal EFS 1H well has reached TD and recorded strong oil and gas shows is just the filip to keep the SP moving upwards towards Christmas. Its a pity that fraccing will not occur until March 2011 but as Agentm notes there is so much activity occuring in the EFS that a 90 day wait is common. At least we know that both wells are in a sweet spot for oil and gas. IMHO their is no stopping TXN ATM.


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## Agentm (21 December 2010)

philly the second well appears to be presenting the identical characteristics the first well had..

texons maiden EFS horizontal turns out to be one of the best in the county

huge days ahead imho


ASX Release
21 December 2010

SECOND EAGLE FORD WELL

GOOD OIL AND GAS SHOWS

Texon advises that it has finished drilling and casing its second Eagle Ford well (Teal EFS #1H). Strong oil and gas shows were observed throughout the 4,500ft of horizontal drilling within the Eagle Ford reservoir similar to the oil and gas shows in the first Eagle Ford well that has just been tested. Production casing has been run in preparation for the fracture stimulation which has been contracted and is expected to begin in March. After this work has been completed, the well will be production tested.
Log analysis indicates that the reservoir characteristics (porosity, permeability and oil and gas content) in the Eagle Ford in this second well (Teal EFS #1H) are similar to the reservoir properties of the Eagle Ford in recently tested Tyler Ranch EFS #1H located 5 km to the Northeast and which flowed 1,200 bopd.

There are now three wells which have flowed substantial quantities of oil from the Eagle Ford in and around Texon’s Leighton, Mosman, Rockingham and Sutton leases (“LMRS”). These wells are shown on the map i.e. Texon’s first Eagle Ford well which flowed 1,200 bopd and two Swift wells which flowed respectively 1,134 bopd and 775 bopd. These results indicate that the Eagle Ford in Texon’s LMRS leases is in a liquids rich area.

Texon has a 100% Working Interest (75% net revenue interest) in the Teal EFS #1H well.

Texon has an overall 92% Working Interest in approximately 5,000 gross acres in the LMRS leases which surround or are nearby to Texon’s first Eagle Ford well. The Eagle Ford reservoir is expected to be present throughout these leases.

Texon’s nett Eagle Ford acreage holding is 4,550 acres which could represent a resource potential of some 30-34 mmboe as to the Company’s working interest or 23–26 mmboe as to Texon’s net revenue interest in these leases. Texon Petroleum Ltd


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## Good Vibes (24 December 2010)

ASX Release 
22 December 2010

http://www.texonpetroleum.com.au/Documents/Investor/Announce2010/tplasx101222.pdf


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## estseon (26 December 2010)

Agentm said:


> philly the second well appears to be presenting the identical characteristics the first well had..
> 
> texons maiden EFS horizontal turns out to be one of the best in the county
> 
> ...






Good Vibes said:


> ASX Release
> 22 December 2010
> 
> http://www.texonpetroleum.com.au/Documents/Investor/Announce2010/tplasx101222.pdf




Thanks, Vibes.

That would seem to provide an explanation of the delayed fraccing and testing of Teal.


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## Agentm (30 December 2010)

estseon said:


> Thanks, Vibes.
> 
> That would seem to provide an explanation of the delayed fraccing and testing of Teal.




Very quiet thread, my view on txn remains,, strong chance of re rating in the short term..


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## philly (30 December 2010)

Agentm said:


> Very quiet thread, my view on txn remains,, strong chance of re rating in the short term..




Hi Agentm, with fraccing not due until March I think that this thread will remain quiet and the SP will stay around current levels ie 67-68 cents. It is entitled to get a re rating prior to fraccing as the flow rates of over 1200 boe potentially from 2 wells are well above that achieved by others in the zone. I still don't think that the market has acknowledged this fact and I was hoping for a bit more of a run on the SP. Having seen what others have achieved in the Sugarloaf I am confident that TXN holders will all do well. I am a holder.


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## Ramblin Round (31 December 2010)

I too feel strongly about Texon from what I see happening here in Texas.


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## estseon (31 December 2010)

philly said:


> Hi Agentm, with fraccing not due until March I think that this thread will remain quiet and the SP will stay around current levels ie 67-68 cents. It is entitled to get a re rating prior to fraccing as the flow rates of over 1200 boe potentially from 2 wells are well above that achieved by others in the zone. I still don't think that the market has acknowledged this fact and I was hoping for a bit more of a run on the SP. Having seen what others have achieved in the Sugarloaf I am confident that TXN holders will all do well. I am a holder.




"The Olmos - profitable but forgotten by the market" said a broker some time. Have they not some drilling planned in Q1?

The EFS is becoming big news - TXN could get swept along with the tide. I'd be surprised if the price flat-lines for the next 2-3 months.


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## philly (31 December 2010)

estseon said:


> "The Olmos - profitable but forgotten by the market" said a broker some time. Have they not some drilling planned in Q1?
> 
> The EFS is becoming big news - TXN could get swept along with the tide. I'd be surprised if the price flat-lines for the next 2-3 months.




Ah estseon, the Olmos. From TXN's website
The Leighton field was discovered in August 2008 with the drilling of the Peeler #1 well. Since then the company has drilled 6 more wells in the field with 100% success. The initial production rates of these wells varied between 300 and 500boepd. There remain up to 28 additional drill sites in the area. *One to two wells a quarter are planned following the drilling of three wells in Q1, 2011.* The Olmos reservoir is some 520m above the Eagle Ford shale on the same lease.

Guess I got caught up in the EFS frenzy It looks like 2011 will be a very busy year for TXN.  They have planned 9 wells to be drilled in the Olmos field + 2 wells to be fracced in the EF + many other prospects in both zones. Hopefully they will maintain their success rate and the SP will surge ahead. I am a holder


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## Agentm (31 December 2010)

Happy new year from KL

I believe a few new wells are commencing this month, which proves up plenty more olmos reserves.. 

I gather the landowners will be swimming in cash.. The efs first paycheck will be bomb IMHO..

Have a fantastic 2011 texon. And to all texon investors, a prosporous 2011 to all..

Cheers


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## estseon (1 January 2011)

Agentm said:


> Happy new year from KL
> 
> I believe a few new wells are commencing this month, which proves up plenty more olmos reserves..
> 
> ...



 Happy New Year to one and all from this time zone. 

Special wishes to those inundated in Queensland.

Fingers crossed for Texas - it seems to have tornadoes one side and blizzards on the other. Locally, we've had the coldest December since records began. There's some really unusual weather going around.


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## Agentm (2 January 2011)

My view on oil is it will now rise to $130 in the coming 6 months. I am considering adding when I am able to..

With madden reserves due in the short term, a second efs well to flow, and many more olmos sands wells.. IMHO some cheap prices are there for txn right now.

Unusual weather for sure but.... Unusually low sp is always nice when adding.

make hay whilst the sun shines IMHO


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## Agentm (9 January 2011)

just you and me left in txn now estseon..

real quiet in the trade there.. great prices still.. this will be a quiet little winner in 2011 for me..


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## tech/a (9 January 2011)

Agentm said:


> just you and me left in txn now estseon..
> 
> real quiet in the trade there.. great prices still.. this will be a quiet little winner in 2011 for me..




Like this from a tech view


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## philly (9 January 2011)

Agentm said:


> just you and me left in txn now estseon..
> 
> real quiet in the trade there.. great prices still.. this will be a quiet little winner in 2011 for me..




Oh Agentm, don't forget me, I hold as well 
I agree that 2011 will be a big year.
As estseon reminded me recently the "forgotten" Olmos are providing a steady income stream. TXN has already planned 9 wells to be drilled in the Olmos field and the 2 EFS wells are to be fracced in March. There is also potential for more wells as there many other prospects in both zones. Hopefully the SP will surge ahead.


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## Agentm (9 January 2011)

tech/a said:


> Like this from a tech view





most are seeing a near term $1 rating from any of the research notes i have viewed



philly said:


> Oh Agentm, don't forget me, I hold as well
> I agree that 2011 will be a big year.
> As estseon reminded me recently the "forgotten" Olmos are providing a steady income stream. TXN has already planned 9 wells to be drilled in the Olmos field and the 2 EFS wells are to be fracced in March. There is also potential for more wells as there many other prospects in both zones. Hopefully the SP will surge ahead.




hey philly, olmos is producing at very healthy rates, and january should see more olmos wells, they are quick verticals, they cost about $1mill and give great returns with oil and gas, the more they put in the greater the reserves attributed to TXN is.

on the eagleford shale wells comment,, the first EFS well is fracced and connected to sales, the tyler ranch 1h.. so immediate and very healthy income right away.. 

*Texon has a 82% Working Interest (61.6% net revenue interest) in the Tyler Ranch EFS #1H well.*

61% NRI on 1267 bopd ip.. is exceptional!!!

"Texon advises that its first Eagle Ford well, Tyler Ranch EFS #1H, has flowed 1,267 boepd(1) representing 1,202 bpd of light sweet crude oil and 782 mcfpd of gas with a flowing tubing pressure of 2610 psi through a 16/64” choke. Some of the frac fluid is also still being recovered.
*The gas has a high heating value of approximately 1,250 mmbtu per thousand cubic feet*(2) so at a Henry Hub gas price of US$4.00/mmbtu, *the Company would receive US$6.40/mcf*.
*Texon’s working interest in the well is 82%. Texon’s beneficial interest (NRI) in the production is 61.6% or some 780 boepd of the above production*."

the second well, the teal ranch 1h, which is called something else by texon, is drilled and ready to frac in the coming 60 days.. march is slotted in.

texon can be considered an olmos sands and EFS oil producer right now..

under the radar for sure, but the upside of short term $1 and much much more to come..

quietly quietly...

cheers


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## adobee (9 January 2011)

Im holding too .. (probably at the highest entry price of anyone as well !) but I dont think it will matter soon ... (Continuing to buy TXN EKA & SEA with any spare cash I get)..


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## Agentm (10 January 2011)

adobee said:


> Im holding too .. (probably at the highest entry price of anyone as well !) but I dont think it will matter soon ... (Continuing to buy TXN EKA & SEA with any spare cash I get)..




great buying prices for all atm, but on thin volumes..


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## Mofra (17 January 2011)

Hooley Dooley - 19,651 BOE, majority liquids 



> ASX RELEASE
> 17 January 2011
> FIRST EAGLE FORD WELL
> 30 DAY RESULT
> ...


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## philly (17 January 2011)

TXN advises that the 30 day production rates for its first EFS well Tyler Ranch was 19,651 boe this equates to an average of 655 boe per day

IMO that compares favourably with other EFS producers and represents a good little earner.

Also I believe that TXN is planning to drill 3 more Olmos wells this month.
IMHO this is all good news for TXN and for us holders


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## condog (17 January 2011)

philly said:


> TXN advises that the 30 day production rates for its first EFS well Tyler Ranch was 19,651 boe this equates to an average of 655 boe per day
> 
> IMO that compares favourably with other EFS producers and represents a good little earner.
> 
> ...




Hi philly i dont fully agree. I dont believe it is comparable. 

Aut had the following. 
Kennedy ip 1132 30 day 661 unrestricted
Rancho Grande 1170 30 day 1060 highly restricted
Easely ip     780 30 day 407 un restricted
Turnbull 1    893 30 day 720 restricted
Turnbull 2   526 30 day 378 restricted
Turnbull 3    629 30 day 901 restricted
May 1        634 30 day 567 restricted

On the other hand TXN had ip of 1200+ and 30 day average of 655.  meaning its actual flows in the last few days are probably below 400boepd.  

So whilst this is still economical and better then AZZ, i think some punters will definitely be hoping for much lower declines on thier other wells and thier 60 day declines. 

Right now its still definitely economic.


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## philly (17 January 2011)

condog said:


> Hi philly i dont fully agree. I dont believe it is comparable.
> 
> Aut had the following.
> Kennedy ip 1132 30 day 661 unrestricted
> ...




Hi Condog, you are a hard task master, lol. I accept what you say about AUT having better figures but its figures are way up there. I would think that any EFS producer would love to have AUT's figures. But I suppose that if I am going to compare producers then I have to look to and include the best. Whilst I would love TXN to be another AUT that may be unlikely but you never know. This is only the first EFS well for TXN and it has plenty of acreages and plenty more wells to drill. I am a happy holder


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## nioka (17 January 2011)

philly said:


> Hi Condog, you are a hard task master, lol. I accept what you say about AUT having better figures but its figures are way up there. I would think that any EFS producer would love to have AUT's figures. But I suppose that if I am going to compare producers then I have to look to and include the best. Whilst I would love TXN to be another AUT that may be unlikely but you never know. This is only the first EFS well for TXN and it has plenty of acreages and plenty more wells to drill. I am a happy holder



Then there is the ownership.  It is better to have 80% of 400  than 10% of 3000. Then take into consideration the relative market cap.??? I'm happy to hold a fair number of TXN. I don't expect TXN to be another AUT but I can see the possibility that it could give the individual shareholders a better return for a dollar spent at todays prices.


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## condog (18 January 2011)

philly said:


> Hi Condog, you are a hard task master, lol. I accept what you say about AUT having better figures but its figures are way up there. I would think that any EFS producer would love to have AUT's figures. But I suppose that if I am going to compare producers then I have to look to and include the best. Whilst I would love TXN to be another AUT that may be unlikely but you never know. This is only the first EFS well for TXN and it has plenty of acreages and plenty more wells to drill. I am a happy holder




What im eluding to is they had a fanstic ip of 1200+. They are running this thing on a restricted choke. Yet its decline is comparable to AUT's Kennedy which was on unrestricted and has had serious declines. 

With the average of 655 for the first 30 days and having started at 1200+ , its last 5-10 days of the 30 day period must be a hell of a lot lower then 655. And whilst 300-400 is still economic its a very dissapointing decline given its on a restricted choke.

However, just like AUT, one well is not totally indicative of its acerage. Watch the second one with interest and by then you should have your 60 day flows on this one.


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## Agentm (18 January 2011)

nioka said:


> Then there is the ownership.  It is better to have 80% of 400  than 10% of 3000. Then take into consideration the relative market cap.??? I'm happy to hold a fair number of TXN. I don't expect TXN to be another AUT but I can see the possibility that it could give the individual shareholders a better return for a dollar spent at todays prices.




nice little efs well to start with for txn

agree with you on all counts nioka, the 80% of efs and operator means primarily you in the drivers seat. 

swift have just in the last week released a lot of data on their mcmullen olmos efs region. the AWP

swift are saying on the olmos sands wells (horizontal completions) 3-5 bcfe  on their vertical wells program they are talking 0.4 bcfe

on their efs positions they are talking these numbers

975 locations assuming 80 acre well spacing

4 - 7 Bcfe resource potential per gas

250 - 375 Mboe resource potential per liquids rich well

$6 - $7 MM cost per well in development mode

very enticing economics there for them


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## condog (18 January 2011)

nioka said:


> I don't expect TXN to be another AUT but I can see the possibility that it could give the individual shareholders a better return for a dollar spent at todays prices.




Maybe its a possibility, but im not sure i agree with you yet. If TXN proves up a few more wells and can lower its declines, then perhaps. But until they do that TXn already looks expensive to me for reasons already outlined, so i wouldnt envisage it getting that sorrt of gowth on the back of yesterdays decline release. 

Id be looking for growth in mid to late march on the back of hopefully better 60 day declines and new well results for thier EFS #2 well. 

Hopefully those Olmos verticals will provide great economices and they imo have the potential to put a real rocket under this thing. But we will have to wait see on that.


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## Agentm (18 January 2011)

texon is in a very active EFS region and shares the mcmullen county with some big names, i am posting a map just to fill the texon shareholders in on the chesapeake commitment to the mcmullen county, and it gives you a guide as to how the region is being viewed by the EFS operators

best of luck to all holders


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## AngusSmart (18 January 2011)

Agentm said:


> texon is in a very active EFS region and shares the mcmullen county with some big names, i am posting a map just to fill the texon shareholders in on the chesapeake commitment to the mcmullen county, and it gives you a guide as to how the region is being viewed by the EFS operators
> 
> best of luck to all holders





Hey, Any chance you know the flow rates on these Chesapeake wells? or atleast the names of them? wouldnt mind finding out about other flows, and  if known the Swift wells too..? or if you cant be bothered just tell me what to look for if they publish their results?


Very keen for another move with a bit of cash i got spare.. going to spread it over the Three and see who performs better..


----------



## Agentm (19 January 2011)

AngusSmart said:


> Hey, Any chance you know the flow rates on these Chesapeake wells? or atleast the names of them? wouldnt mind finding out about other flows, and  if known the Swift wells too..? or if you cant be bothered just tell me what to look for if they publish their results?
> 
> 
> Very keen for another move with a bit of cash i got spare.. going to spread it over the Three and see who performs better..




MARTIN-MASON RANCH UNIT "A" is flowing.. 
                gas                     oil
Jul 2010 	5,161 		3,194 		  	  	  	 
Aug 2010 	19,338 	 	10,947 		  	  	  	 
Sep 2010 	24,587 	 	13,301 	  	  	  	 
Oct 2010 	14,613 	 	6,879 		  	  	  	 
Total 	63,699 	 	34,321

chesapeake have only recently been adding permits for mcmullen and a good friend of mine was working on the martin mason well. they have a very comprehensive drilling program coming through.


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## Agentm (19 January 2011)

ASX Release
19 January 2011

PRODUCTION

Texon advises that the gross production from its 12 producing wells has recently averaged 1,200 boepd (818 bopd and 4,591 mcfgpd).

*Texon’s beneficial interest (NRI) from this production is about 600 boepd (437 bopd and 1,962 mcfgpd) including the recently announced Eagle Ford result. Eighty five percent (85%) of Texon gas is from the Eagle Ford and Olmos reservoirs.
Gas has been converted to barrels of oil equivalent (boe) on the basis of 12mcf of gas to 1boe. As a result, Texon gas has a sales value of some US$80-90/boe in line with the current value of a barrel of oil.*

Additional Production

*Additional production is expected from four (4) new wells in the next two months.*

*Three Olmos Wells*

The first of three (3) Leighton Olmos production wells began drilling on 17 January, 2011. Each well will take about 15 days to drill, run casing, and suspend ready for fracture stimulation and production testing. It is expected that these wells will be tested and in production in March.
*Texon has an average 70% WI (52.5% NRI) in these wells.*


*Second Eagle Ford*

The fracture stimulation and production testing of the Company’s second Eagle Ford well (Teal EFS #1H) is also scheduled to take place in March this year, and the well will immediately be placed in production.
*Texon has 100% WI (75% NRI) in this well.*

Please refer to Texon’s website for announcements by the Company: www.texonpetroleum.com.au
Oil and gas futures prices (Source: NYMEX February 2011 contracts)
Oil: US$91.02/bbl
Gas: US$4.50/mmbtu (approx. US$7.2/mcf for all Texon gas - including US$7.60/mcf for Eagle Ford and Olmos gas)
-Ends-


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## condog (19 January 2011)

Disclosure: Patersons Securities was Joint Lead Manager to the $14m Placement
completed in June 2010. It was paid a fee for this service.

The Initial Production (IP) rate of 1,202bopd and 0.782mmscf/d compared
favorable to results in the region, with Swifts wells flowing at 1,134bopd
and 775bopd.
?h The well is being produced on a restricted basis through a 16/64" choke,
which makes comparison with our modeled unrestricted type-curve
difficult. The announced production rate is encouraging and inline with our
expectations however it will be important to monitor the ongoing
performance of the well. By way of comparison, AUT has achieved an
overall 30-day average of 940boepd (on a 12:1 basis), however its more
recent restricted wells Luna #1H and May #1H achieved 30-day averages
of 888boepd and 722boepd, respectively. We would expect the results at
AUT's acreage to be higher given the high productivity of this area of the
shale.

Impact
?h Production to date from the well equates to revenue of ~US$1.8m at
US$90/bbl (the average over the period) and US$7.60/mscf (allowing for
calorific uplift), of which TXN has a 61.6% NRI.
?h Application of restricted flow rates is commonplace with major operators
reporting early positive signs for higher EUR's.
?h TXN stands to benefit from the successful appraisal of a total of 4,516 net
acres of Eagle Ford across its 2 focus areas. We currently risk the
Leighton/Sutton and Mosman/Rockingham projects at 30% and 20%
respectively, suggesting ~4 times upside from the successful appraisal of
its Eagle Ford shale and full de-risking with time.
?h We maintain our BUY recommendation with a price target of
$1.05/sh. TXN is underpinned by reserves and production from its
Leighton Olmos project area, with a further 7 development wells planned
for 2011. TXN has a busy drilling schedule across its Olmos acreage with 7
wells planned, 3 additional exploration prospects and one additional Eagle
Ford shale. Looking ahead, key catalysts will include the completion of the
fracc and production results from MR#1 and the results of Olmos
development wells plus further exploration drilling. The market appears to
be heavily risking the acreage which has been significantly de-risked
following the recent well results.

Disclosure: Patersons Securities was Joint Lead Manager to the $14m Placement
completed in June 2010. It was paid a fee for this service.


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## Good Vibes (24 January 2011)

The on-line broker I use (Macquarie Edge) still have a "Strong Buy" recommendation on TXN so I'll be sitting on them for a bit longer...but


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## Agentm (25 January 2011)

hey good vibes

very quiet thread on txn, but they are drilling 3 olmos sands wells atm, the first well commenced a good week ago

the second efs well is due for a frac in about 45 days or so at a minimum..

swift gave a very comprehensive and positive wrap for their AWP acreages which texon share in mcmullen

 South Texas
AWP Olmos - Multiple year horizontal development potential

Eagle Ford (McMullen, LaSalle, Webb Counties) -Multiple year horizontal development potential

its a great position for efs acreages that texon has and i agree with your broker, and will buy as much as i can when i am permitted






250 - 375 mboe resource potential per liquids rich well


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## Agentm (25 January 2011)

just a little to the west and south west chesapeake has a huge stake in the efs in mcmullen

these maps sow their various permits in place for single dual triple and quadruple laterals

been hearing a lot about the new drilling ideas lately

starting to see some on the permits


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## condog (26 January 2011)

Augusta said a few days ago

"So today I think TXN is at a point of developing the EFS acreage similar to where AZZ and AUT were 1 year ago. Yet today I see more similarity between TXN and AZZ. Same county. Same big WI. Same initial big IP. Same 'in-house' approach (no big operator). And same disappointing first report of a decline."

and MIR agreed 100%

Two folks with great knowledge of eFS from way back. 

Be wise to balance those opinions against a lot of TXN propaganda based on chesapeak. 

My concern is aZZ tought us all the danger of expecting well results to resemble thier neighbours. AZZ are surrounded by good results, yet thier results smashed the company and its sp. 

The other thing is so far TXN has more in common with AZZ then Chesapeak. Its first decline is very similar to AZZ. 

Its a speculation and if they work out ok, great money will be made, if not it runs the danger of the sp tanking. 

I, MIR and AUgusta are not saying its not going to be a winner. We are just expressing the fact its way too early to tell and might get hammered if things turn sour with 60day results and well 2.

As esteon said recently "no one judged AUT on Kennedy alone, as kennedy wasnt exactly the most impressive result" and hes dead set right.

But be cautioned about basing beliefs on chesapeaks results.


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## philly (26 January 2011)

condog said:


> Augusta said a few days ago
> 
> "So today I think TXN is at a point of developing the EFS acreage similar to where AZZ and AUT were 1 year ago. Yet today I see more similarity between TXN and AZZ. Same county. Same big WI. Same initial big IP. Same 'in-house' approach (no big operator). And same disappointing first report of a decline."
> 
> ...




hey Condog, r u looking for a cheap entry point 
I agree with you and others that ATM it is far too early to know what is to come.
TXN have only drilled 2 EFS wells and only one is flowing with the other to be fracced in March. At this point whatever view a holder has is based more on speculation than fact. Its the time ffor all holders to be patient.


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## condog (26 January 2011)

No im definitely not looking for a cheap entry point. I just dont want to see people get burned by a share thats being pumped so hard, before its showing signs that make it an investment rather then a speculation. 

Will i buy, well certainly not yet , and possibly not, i am able to sell some my other company at any time now as my cGT dates are passing. But no i would likely enter another or stay in the one im in. 

PErhaps if they sure up some really good declines and flows i might get interested, but believe me you will know long before i buy that i think the situation is changing.

I say it as i see it , and am prepared to bag the shares i own if i see fit. Anyone whose on multiple forums would know ive given my favourite a right flogging in the last few weeks over CR prices and ambiguous release info.

I just believe in honesty and transparency, And my comments are my honest assesment of the situation. 
When AUT had one well , kennedy it was around and under 30c which was mcap of 60M, with twice the acerage of TXN. It genuinely concerns me that some are gunna get burned, as this is 4x as expensive on a net acre pricing, so early, especially given the similarities so far with AZZ, which Augusta summed up so well. Same county, same big WI, same initial declines. 

I look at the comments on this stock and i compare them to the comments on AZZ and lets just say the story is unfolding with a lot of similarly, but being the song being sung about this stock is with extreme praise imo.

Id rather have some of my comments not liked by holders then see people potentially lose money or only hear one side of the argument. 

We must rememeber discussion is healthy, as uncomfortable as it is and sometimes repetitive, if people are cross examined and thier comments discussed from both sides surely everyones understanding of the stock will be far deeper then if we all simply agree and rave on like blind penguines heading for the cliffs together. 

While this thread has an abundance of information its depth of discussion into the reality of the situation, particularly since the declines where publiswhed has virtually been totally ignored imo by those who have significant knowledge on the topic. Enough to have voiced at least concern.

As stated previously im not saying this is a winner or loser, but we have virtually no information on the actual TXN play . Secondly the information we do have which was the impressive IP followed by the concerning decline is of concern. Its only the first well so it certainly doesnt spell success or disaster. And thats my point, we absolutely dont know, yet its four times the price of AUT at the same stage in its development. 

It probably deserves to be dearer then AUT was, but surely not 4x the price. ??? only you can make that decision, but its worth knowing and discussing. Another share was 3 times the price of AUT at a similar stage in development at just under 90c, things turned bad for it in McMullen and its now 37c, known as AZZ.   I wouldnt like to see that repeated, and im not inferring it will be. But the reality is right now it s a dead set 50/50 which way it will go, and that at least needs to remain in peoples minds and discussion.


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## Ramblin Round (27 January 2011)

Condog,

As a novice investor and landowner in the EFS region I'll share a recent observation. If it says EAGLE FORD SHALE PLAY or even sounds like it may be near an EAGLE FORD SHALE PLAY then it usually turns to gold. I can literally write down the names of companies off of service trucks going down the highway and watch the stocks jump before news is let out of contractual deals in this region.

Now, the downside is that everyone including Wall Street has tunnel vision on EAGLE FORD SHALE. Look folks......... the Olmos sands, Pearsall, Wilcox, Austin Chalk, Edwards trend, etc. is all and still a part of the EFS region. Don't fall into the close-mindedness that EFS is the only money maker when this play is still broadening its footprint in Texas.

Do your DD on this one and dig a bit deeper if you will.

Texon is more cautious than most, and part of that has probably led them to miss out on some opportunites in this area. But truth be known it's better to be cautious than to just try to buy up Texas. I see a careful thought process with shareholders' best interests in mind with this company. I see a precise methodology of target areas and contracts with good rigs and frac crews. That folks is not cheap and it's one of the things I have said before that led me to invest. I believe that Texon are not playing around here like many smaller companies in the past that could not make it in Texas.

I'm just a little fish. I'm sure others have much more to share/lose than I so don't accuse me of being a pump and dump. I hold enough of Texon to feel the sting of failure, but would also like to see the success of another stable stock choice. Guess I'm still learning.


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## Agentm (27 January 2011)

permits for efs wells around texon acreages just for the last 90 days

likes of chesapeake, xto (exxon) eog, murphy, talisman, tidal, commstock, swift, cabot, petrohawk...

all of course making grave mistakes in investing in the efs  ..  lol


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## condog (27 January 2011)

Nowsee Rambln thats what im after some quality discussion and posts rather then all this mind numbing ramping using chesapeak and other neighbours. Its so god damn boring and sucks in poor newbies like blind moths to spotlights. 

Weve been there dont that with AZZ and lots of people got burnt. 

Good post Ramblin and long time no see. Have you managed to get one of them to lease your place yet.

Id suggest you read a few more of my posts, im looking at this one with an open mind, it seems some others might not be. 

What do you think Ramblin about the fact of its similarities to AZZ with its IP and declines and proximity.

Also what do you think about its pricing, the fact its similar to where AZZ was, 4 times the price AUT and ADI where when Kennedy was drilled.  Doesnt that concern you, when looked at relative to the decline news we just recieved. Or do you think the Olmos will save them should their EFS horizontals not work out to be economic.


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## Ramblin Round (28 January 2011)

Olmos has definitely begun to peak the interest of many operators and investors alike. I attended a seminar and listened to a speech from a retired geologist in which had been a behind the scenes reviewer for over two decades.

His final comment at the end of the presentation was that the EFS is _*nothing*_  compared to what play is about to be had in Texas when the technology becomes available to get to it and extract correctly. My research leads me to speculate that that play is going to be either the Olmos or Pearsall.

What I also see is some experimentation with different chokes still being employed. I mean, at this point in the game you'd think somebody would have just nailed the method already but that does not seem to be the case. Not speed issues but quality production issues are the norm now. 

One of the largest problems is the monkey-see/monkey do thought process between Petrohawk and Pioneer's frac methods. COP too. As others have stated they are all doing the same thing over and over again, and most of the largest failures are technical directives with a few exceptions of the gas being just too damned pressurized to control safely (Pickett 1H for example). Failed perforations, wrong level perforations, multi-stage frac failures and mixed results and IP rates. And they're still playing with coiled tubing that can't get past 6500ft !!  It's seems at frac time it's a 10 million dollar hit or miss with every well and with all the technology it shouldn't be. 3-D subterranian DOES NOT LIE !! Look at some of the AZZ or AUT presentation slides to see what I mean. Sure they can drill it and get in it, but then what ? That's the problem around here. The definition of insanity is doing the same thing over and over expecting different results. 

On a positive note, I also see an economically manageable well with the multistage laterals employed in this play. Frac a few levels, come back a decade later and frac a few more. The decline of the inital IP's will be offset because there is truth in numbers. It shouldn't just drop off the cliff like the Haynseville did with the new chokes they are experimenting with. Oh and I'm sure there's also a number of tricks being employed in the reporting of IP rates too. Don't believe everything you read until you talk to people in the doghouse. Most everybody's puffing down here when it comes to initial IP's. It's a Texas thing. 

I wasn't onboard for AZZ and really can't comment fairly because of that. But I kept up with AUT. I wish I would have had enough $$$ to play all three back when Adelphi got bought, but I got in cheap with ADI and ran with it. I don't think they [ADI] were deserving of what happened to them at all but hey, that's life.

After I sold out of ADI I spread the wealth to HK, Halliburton and most recently to Texon after researching their contracts, drillers and their position for growth. I think they will bring new ideas and a precise targeting method that others will look at and wonder why they hadn't thought of that. (insert forhead slap here) They play their cards close but many things are happening in the background with Texon. I view all of these things as positive ones and I think the recent speculation on the stock price is easily attainable and even a bit underpriced. If they would just HURRY UP already. It's the most ultra-conservative approach to oil and gas I have ever seen in Texas.

This all of course is in my honest opinion. I'm no expert; just a novice investor. And yes we're happily leased.


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## condog (28 January 2011)

Some interesting declines out this morning for AUT, that will allow you to compare the declines for TXN

Franke we dont have an IP, but its intitial flow was reported at 760 on a restricted choke and its 30 day flow is now at at 683

Turnbull 4 had an ip or early flow of 1260 on a restricted choke with 30 day flows at 1244. 

Use that as a reference point or benchmark of best practice. So far.


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## Agentm (30 January 2011)

hey ramblin

olmos is interesting, i was reading the swift research recently, they like it best in the awp field as its shows its best consistency and can be drilled with horizontals in certain parts. verticals are proving very effective

the pearsall is also a play of the future,  i know of quite a few wells which i am keeping tabs on, but primarily its been gas thus far. but there is no doubting the play at all imho. a good friend of mine just worked on a few completions out carizzo way..


the giant exxon mobil have a presence in mcmullen just south of the texon acreages, they are flowing their first efs lateral.. its a nice well for them


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## philly (31 January 2011)

2 ASX announcements today:

1. The 45 day production rates for the 1st EFS well is 671 boepd [cf 30 day rate of 655boepd] and 

2. The 8th Leighton Olmos well has reached TD and will be fracced in March and brought into production thereafter. The rig is now being moved to the Peller #2 well site

SP slightly higher on news
I am a holder


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## adobee (31 January 2011)

whats the thoughts on the middle east Egyption drama.. articles I have read seem to have this as a result of todays loss on the asx.. will this actually be good for oil & gas players if it pushes the price much higher ???


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## Kremmen (31 January 2011)

condog said:


> When AUT had one well , kennedy it was around and under 30c which was mcap of 60M, with twice the acerage of TXN.




That might be a disingenuous comparison. AUT had a 10% interest in the early wells. TXN has 82% WI and 61.6% NRI. Even at the current flow rate, it took about 6 wells for AUT to have similar income. TXN's one well has about 40% of AUT's current NRI production share. Seems to me that that puts TXN in a much better position than AUT a year ago.

I hold both AUT and TXN.


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## condog (31 January 2011)

No one wants to profit from anyones suffering. But realistically any tension or unrest in the oil producing middle east will cause oil prices to rise. A democratic govt in Egypt might not be as nice to the US, as its appointed dictator has been. 

Nice news out for TXN today. The change in ratio from 12:1 to 6:1 makes it harder to compare apples, and in some respect makes the result look better then it was. But the result was better then most expected.

60 days will be interesting as it will come out in 6:1 or 12:1 and be directly comparable. Good news on the olmos front. Will be intersting to see how it flows.


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## Ramblin Round (1 February 2011)

I agree Kremmon, with the WI for the TXN wells it about equates or at least makes up for the loss of the IP's. Although it would be nice to see stability at or above the 800 boepd range and not in the 600's so early out of the chute. But I'm sure we can all remember the days one would even hope to hit 600 and stay there in the shallow plays of days gone by.


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## Agentm (1 February 2011)

adobee said:


> whats the thoughts on the middle east Egyption drama.. articles I have read seem to have this as a result of todays loss on the asx.. will this actually be good for oil & gas players if it pushes the price much higher ???




adobee

it has the 100% focus of the USA

egypt is the second only to isreal in terms of us aid and military support

the canal is critical.. its so imperrative that the impact on the oil prices is a consequence if the usa cannot get another puppet government in place pronto

currently the egyptians themselves are maintaining law and order and protecting their own homes themselves,, i expect they would want reform, whether any is given in return for them to hand the streets back is the question.

its a wait and see


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## Ramblin Round (1 February 2011)

Egypt's unrest will certainly drive market prices up, not that they weren't destined to do that seasonally anyhow.



> the canal is critical.. its so imperrative that the impact on the oil prices is a consequence if the usa cannot get another puppet government in place pronto




 Agent you are right. ANYthing that threatens the canal has a cause and effect result on our market.


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## Mofra (1 February 2011)

Forgive my ignorance, but the access to the Canal's impact on the price of oil would be more sentiment based wouldn't it? I was under the understanding that modern supertankers which carry the bulk of the world's oil trade by volume are too big to fit through the canal.

If the Egyptian crisis spreads (and dictator or not, Mubarak was one of the US's most staunch ally in the Arab world) then we could see supply contraints hit the market and drive prices higher - although it's hard to see anything happening in Iraq where largely US interests control supply, and the House of Saud which is very US friendly.


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## Agentm (1 February 2011)

Mofra said:


> Forgive my ignorance, but the access to the Canal's impact on the price of oil would be more sentiment based wouldn't it? I was under the understanding that modern supertankers which carry the bulk of the world's oil trade by volume are too big to fit through the canal.
> 
> If the Egyptian crisis spreads (and dictator or not, Mubarak was one of the US's most staunch ally in the Arab world) then we could see supply contraints hit the market and drive prices higher - although it's hard to see anything happening in Iraq where largely US interests control supply, and the House of Saud which is very US friendly.





just dropped my wife home, and square in front of my place i had this lunatic bashing the crap out of a chick in the back seat of this twin cab.. tearing her hair out and smacking the crap out of her face.. so i stopped in front of his ute and got into this guys comfort zone,, real close.. little weed got real scared jumped into his ute

little dog took off with the half unconscious chick out cold on the back seat.. man its a weird planet.. reminds me of how you think good people turn on you in a heart beat.. seen a lot of that of late

chased him for a while and left the rest for the cops to sort out ,,,,


mofra... 

Oil hits $US101 a barrel as Egypt rages
February 1, 2011 - 9:06AM

Oil prices smashed through $US100 a barrel overnight for the first time since the 2008 economic crisis, as traders worried that unrest in Egypt could disrupt oil flows through the Suez Canal.

Oil prices surged to $US101 a barrel for London's main Brent North Sea crude contract, as protesters gathered for a seventh straight day amid threats of a general strike.

Egypt is not a major oil producer, but is home to the vitally important Suez Canal, which carries about 2.4 million barrels of oil a day - roughly equivalent to the daily output of Iraq or Brazil.
Advertisement: Story continues below

Egyptian authorities insist the canal is still working at full capacity, but unrest has caused major shipping giants such as AP Moller-Maersk to halt operations in the country.

The threat of delays have prompted some normally reticent oil industry honchos to sound the alarm.

OPEC secretary-general Abdalla Salem El-Badri warned "there could be a real shortage" of crude oil passing through Suez.

While stressing that the market was still well supplied, El-Badri said "if we see a real shortage, we will need to act."

The Organisation of Petroleum Exporting Countries pumps about 40 per cent of the world's oil, with the bulk coming from member Saudi Arabia.





imho its a real important seaway..


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## Mofra (1 February 2011)

Agentm said:


> chased him for a while and left the rest for the cops to sort out ,,,,



Good on you for stepping in agent



Agentm said:


> Egypt is not a major oil producer, but is home to the vitally important Suez Canal, which carries about *2.4 million barrels of oil a day *- roughly equivalent to the daily output of Iraq or Brazil.



I stand corrected, cheers for the article, much appreciated.


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## Agentm (1 February 2011)

yeah, i was thinkin how no one does that.. most people let thugs run all over them, or let them do their thing and dont care..   i decided to make it as uncomfortable as it can be. being 110 kg and 6 foot 5 helps..  but he just wound the windows down and abused me as he sped past.. i was gesturing him to come on back please.. happy to take it to him.. 

i had my sister whom is recovering from severe brain injuries in the car next to me and i was dropping my wife home after a morning coffee with both..

i spent about  2 minutes trying to keep close to this car, but he took off at speeds i couldnt risk. then about 10 minutes more realising i had lost him right there.. but rego was noted and passd on..

whats amazing is that despite the whole episode, man beatin up a women, her basically completely punch drunk in the back.. probably not conscious to any degree.. and the cops take the info and never call back.. although i saw several cars just cruising with lights on speeding thru traffic probably lookin for the car..

still lamenting he got into the car so fast and i couldnt get the keys as planned


but on topic..

i see in twittersphere they are trying top organise things but the government had stopped the rail system as well.. so its a case of shutting down more and more systems. mobile networks and transport..

they have a fight on their hands still.. the streets  belong to the people, the government will i guess stifle them and starve them into submission ..

looks pretty nasty imho..


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## Agentm (3 February 2011)

anadarko has put out its 4th quarter and full year review

anadarko has some very very impressive results to the west of the texon acreages. some of the more wells i have studied are staggering to say the least

these are comments noted thus far

Anadarko's Eagle Ford production, which is about 75% oil, gave a clear indication of the potential in North American shale regions, according to analysts at Tudor, Pickering Holt & Co. It's also one of the first signs that output from unconventional resources onshore the U.S. could have a significant impact in North America oil supply in years to come.

Anadarko Chief Executive Jim Hackett said the production growth the company has seen in areas such as the Eagle Ford is "phenomenal" and that current high oil prices are making drilling there highly profitable. Anadarko has identified more than 2,000 well sites and it plans to ramp up to 10 rigs by the end of the first quarter of from two rigs at the beginning of 2010, Hackett said. Anadarko has dramatically improved production from the Eagle Ford in part because its drilling operations have become significantly more efficient, he said.

*The head of Anadarko said the company is progressing talks to enter into a joint venture agreement with an undisclosed partner in the Eagle Ford. The deal is expected to be similar to the $1.4 billion agreement the company completed in the first quarter of last year in the Marcellus Shale in Pennsylvania, Hackett sai*d.


************
now when hackett says improvements and dramatic... i have to agree.. what they have done over there is off the dial!!

***********


Anadarko's record production of 235 million BOE was primarily driven by an 11-percent increase in sales volumes from the Rocky Mountain region, growth in the company's liquids-rich plays and accelerated activity in the Marcellus shale. With existing infrastructure and service agreements in place, Anadarko has established itself as the largest producer in the Eagleford Shale with current gross production of approximately 27,000 BOE per day. The midstream expansion in the Marcellus Shale during the fourth quarter of 2010 enabled the company to nearly double its gross daily sales volumes from the end of the third quarter to approximately 330 million cubic feet per day (MMcf/d) at the end of the year, while being carried on its capital costs through the joint-venture agreement announced earlier in the year.

"The success of Anadarko's worldwide exploration program, coupled with the results of our evaluation and development activity in the U.S. onshore, has continued to add differentiating value for shareholders," continued Hackett. "Our offshore exploration drilling program achieved a success rate of approximately 60 percent, while also continuing to safely advance existing deepwater discoveries toward potential future development, with a 100-percent success rate on a total of nine appraisal wells in 2010. In addition to these industry-leading results, the further evaluation and development of our Marcellus and Eagleford shale programs -- where we amassed large fairway acreage positions at attractive costs in the early stages of exploration -- enabled us to establish a net risked resource potential of 1.5 billion BOE in these two major growth areas."


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## majorca (3 February 2011)

TXN looks quite promising on open on my screen there don't appear to be too many sellers anymore?


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## Good Vibes (3 February 2011)

majorca said:


> TXN looks quite promising on open on my screen there don't appear to be too many sellers anymore?




At today's close Buyers outnumbered Sellers by approx 3:1...But my last trades information reads "No trades today" (3/2/11). Is this correct?


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## skivvy (3 February 2011)

no incorrect, 380k shares approx traded today with a daily range from 75 c to 78 c.  closed at 78c with buyers twice the sellers on my platform.


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## Good Vibes (3 February 2011)

skivvy said:


> no incorrect.




Thanks! This is what's listed at close:

 * Buyers   *638,994 (0.77c) 
* Sellers *248,226 (0.78c)


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## condog (4 February 2011)

Another very basic way to value it is peer comparison. 3p reserves currently at 82mmboe. AUT Mcap approx $1.2B. = approx $14per boe in ground. 

TXN = 2.25mmboe  with mcap 137M   =  approx $60 per boe 

EKA = 5mmboe with 90M mcap = $18 per boe in ground

Clearly these numbers are a little rubbery, as moost these reserves will be rapidly expanding as the company drills more wells and derisk, thier acerage.


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## Agentm (4 February 2011)

Valuation and target price – increasing both (again)

Should the test of Teal EFS #1H prove successful, Texon's WI in the EFS in Leighton-
Mosman-Rockingham-Sutton has potential for 30-34mmboe of resource. At US$5.00/bbl, and risked to 75% this equates to approximately A$0.70/TXN share. For the Olmos reservoir, there are 24 further Proven and Probable undeveloped locations to be drilled with certified 2P reserves attributable to Texon’s WI totalling 2.9mmboe at Leighton. Our valuation from production is A$0.32/TXN share. The Olmos reservoir in Mosman-Rockingham, other leased targets and the Seitel agreement offers further upside potential.

Valuation and risks

Our risked valuation of TXN shares has risen to A$1.16/share (from A$1.05/share) with the successful production test of the first horizontal EFS well. *There is material upside to this valuation should the second EFS well prove to be liquids-rich, and should exploration success in the Olmos reservoir match Texon’s recent experience*. Success in the high-upside gas plays such as Maroubra would also be expected to have a positive effect on share price. Texon is adequately funded for its next phase of drilling. The risks relate to exploration success, prospect size, and the oil and gas prices in the US, as well as the AUD/USD exchange rate.


the teal ranch efs 1h should be fracced in march 2011.. approx 30+ days

something well and truly not being discussed but mentioned in the quarterly:  


Should the fracture stimulation of the Teal EFS #1H prove successful this combined with the successful Tyler Ranch EFS#1H should result in some 15 proved and probable well locations. *The reserves attributable to these locations will be assessed by independent reserve engineers in the coming weeks*.


----------



## jancha (4 February 2011)

Huntley's Recommendation has key measures for these companies as follow

         Value  Risk  Growth  Income   
AUT      4      4       3         5
SEA      3      3       2         5
TXN     N/R    3       1         5
EKA      1      3       1         5
SSN     3      3        3         5

With one analyst having both EKA & TXN as a strong buy.
EKA on that looks the best value and growth along with TXN.


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## Ramblin Round (5 February 2011)

Texon just jumped 10c here today !! Perhaps the good news from ASX trades is just now catching up, or bigger things are in the works. After reading the Appendix 3B from their website one could speculate they are planning big things soon.

DYOR and this is IMHO but I think Texon will prove to be another successful choice for me.  :


----------



## zzaaxxss3401 (5 February 2011)

jancha said:


> Huntley's Recommendation has key measures ...
> EKA on that looks the best value and growth along with TXN.



What is the key? Considering they are all rated 5 for income, one can assume it means 5/5 stars.

If EKA is rated 1 for "Value" doesn't this mean, it's poor?

Please clarify.


----------



## jancha (5 February 2011)

zzaaxxss3401 said:


> What is the key? Considering they are all rated 5 for income, one can assume it means 5/5 stars.
> 
> If EKA is rated 1 for "Value" doesn't this mean, it's poor?
> 
> Please clarify.




No the opposite. One rated being the highest value for the sp. 5 being lowest 3 being average. For example Huntley's key measures on BHP have a Value of 4 (which is below average) Risk at a 2 (which also below average) Growth of 3 (average) and income of 4 (below average)
So in that case BHP is less riskier than the likes of TXN & EKA but EKA & TXN  growth potential & value are at a higher level. Another words scope for more improvement but riskier!!! Ideally four ones would be nice.


----------



## Agentm (10 February 2011)

texon just recently listed a business plan for 2011

imho if your in the share its a great read

i know there is a roadshow in texas right now, may see some growing interest in the share being generated as the visitors report back.

starting to see some activity yesterday, imho the climb to $1.16 is on the way.. the research notes recently did not account for the olmos wells about to frac next month nor the next efs well also due for production in march.

it appears the value is being understood more broadly.

best of luck to all investors


----------



## Ramblin Round (10 February 2011)

The business plan was def. an enjoyable read. It is very good to hear that plans are moving forward in Texas.


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## Agentm (10 February 2011)

Ramblin Round said:


> The business plan was def. an enjoyable read. It is very good to hear that plans are moving forward in Texas.




i'll second that 

the petrohawk presentation was interesting to say the least

dramatic turnarounds in the wells sees them keepin all rigs on the hawkville field in lasalle and mcmullen

and by dramatic i mean staggering

they have the frac nailed in the hawkville field bigtime


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## Mofra (10 February 2011)

I actually foudn the production graphics quiet interesting - Q2 2011 has their ave boepd eclipsing SEA by some margin, with a market cap about 50% of SEA. 

Now I know SEA have an extremely clever management team and are looking at a daily production of 2,000 boepd by end of Dec 11, but with the potential reserve upgrades is this disparity justified?


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## Agentm (10 February 2011)

i can post that slide up if you like...








the conocophillips attention to the EFS is now public knowledge, after years of hounding everyone (including me) to keep it all quiet, the project gets mentioned in slides and actually gets a slide dedicated to it

texon bookends the COP sugarkane acreages


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## Agentm (13 February 2011)

those whom know me also know i like to do a lot of research..  the efs is where i like to invest

regionally there is a lot of activity

operators in the sugarkane, hawkvillle and north on trend in 
the oil zones, these wells are all eagleford wetgas and oil

names like exxon, pioneer, petrohawk, murphy, talisman, swift,
EOG, comstock, chesapeake... TEXON


----------



## philly (13 February 2011)

Hi Agent M 
in terms of ASX listed companies involved in the EFS are there any apart from the following - TXN, AUT, EKA, and AWE [thru acquisition of ADI]?


----------



## Agentm (13 February 2011)

a few spring to mind that i keep tabs on


bcc mentions interest in the play.. 
gbp have holdings in the efs
akk, is in dimmitt, they have an open hole austin chalks well flowing but imho you have to look at the efs there also for this share, i think the very short lateral has flowed about 10,000 bo so far to dec


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## starman45 (14 February 2011)

Excellent weekly close above the maximum of 2007.
Now momentum slowed, but we are in uptrend.
Daily Chart.


----------



## Agentm (14 February 2011)

14 February 2011

4 WELLS

MARCH 2011 TESTING

Eagle Ford

Texon advises that the fracture stimulation and testing of its second Eagle Ford well are scheduled to begin in the first week of March. The fracture stimulation work will take about two weeks after which the well will be production tested. A gas pipeline is being laid to the well so production will be able to begin immediately.
Texon has a 100% WI (75% NRI) in this well.

Olmos

Upon completion of the above project, the contractor will fracture stimulate the three (3) Olmos production wells referred to in the Company’s release of 19th January this year. Each well will take one (1) day for the frac work. The wells will be placed in production when the fracture stimulation and testing are completed.
Texon has an average 70% WI (52.5% NRI) in these 3 wells.

*Production

During the second quarter of this year, it is expected that the above four (4) wells, if successful will contribute a combined average of 600 boepd to the Company’s production.*


----------



## Agentm (15 February 2011)

ASX Release

15 February 2011

FIRST EAGLE FORD WELL
60 DAY PRODUCTION RESULT

Texon advises that its first Eagle Ford Well, Tyler Ranch EFS #1H, has produced 31,099 bo + 40,987 mcfg over 60 days on a restricted choke. This represents an average daily oil equivalent rate (without taking into account the high calorific value of the gas) of 632 boepd (518 bopd + 683 mcfgpd) converting gas on the basis that 6 mcf of gas equals 1 barrel of oil equivalent.

With a Henry Hub gas price of US$4/mmbtu, the Company receives approximately US$6.80/mcf due to the high heating value of the Eagle Ford gas and the presence of natural gas liquids providing a valuable uplift in revenue in addition to the oil revenue.
The second period of 30 days averaged 548 boepd (443 bopd + 631 mcfgpd).

During the last 15 days of the 60 day test time, there were several days when the minimum temperature was below freezing. This may have affected production on those days. Also, there were 5 days where the gas pipeline inlet compressor shut down resulting in reduced oil production (av. 230 bopd on those days).

With warmer weather and the compressor now functioning properly, the rate is back up to some 650 boepd (550 bopd + 601 mcfgpd).

Texon has a working interest in the well of 82% and a beneficial interest (NRI) of 61.6%.


----------



## estseon (15 February 2011)

60 day figures out.

They had problems with temperatures and a compressor.

They report that the flow now is averaging 550 bbls + 601mcfg = 650 boe per day

1st 30 days were 594 bbls + 735 mcfg = 716 boe per day (I've used the 6,000 cfg = 1 bbl conversion)


----------



## bennywizard (15 February 2011)

Today's announcement looks very good to me, and yet no price movement so far.
Any thoughts?


----------



## condog (15 February 2011)

Those 60 day figures are fine imo, im gunna be buying in. Thats plenty economic now to take a risk on  and to me  reduces the risk sufficiently to begin buying in on the $135M mcap. Although the 2nd EFS Horizontal well in late march will be the true derisking imo.

Id imagine that result will probably lead to a broker upgrade in the next few days.

With a 600 boepd target for end of Q1 now looking easily achievable, im valueing it at around $1.40 at end of Q1. If they attain 900boepd in q2 as they are targeting my valuation will rise to approx 1.65 or so. 

Right now i think $0.95 to $1.10 would be fair value on todays news. 

Time will tell.


----------



## condog (15 February 2011)

My TXN numbers for pourousal / discussion. Please cross check, may contain errors.


----------



## condog (15 February 2011)

Crrection the 600 boepd was NRI corrected. So here is my corrected numbers




If right now it already has over 600boepd and its likely to keep it for a while based on current production then youd have to say its priced attractively in light of the new results, which imo add in the value of the eFS horizontals as economic. Up until today my opinion was dont count the Horizontals till they prove to be economic.


----------



## Assasin (15 February 2011)

Gee your timing is good Condog, SP down today on the back of good news.


----------



## Sharejon (15 February 2011)

Do hilcorp use compressors in their wells?

I've never really investigated technical specifics about the wells, I just analyse declines/production/reserves.

Cheers.


----------



## Agentm (15 February 2011)

sometimes there are some amazingly funny things being posted by people..

you gotta laugh

reminds me of a chick at the grammys doing it tough and gettin all toungue tied.. anyways enjoy the remix.. its almost as comic as the comedy seen lately


----------



## condog (15 February 2011)

Assasin said:


> Gee your timing is good Condog, SP down today on the back of good news.




Yes a nice oxymoron  / juxtaposition blah blah whatever, anyway yeh it was nice to buy in the mid 70's after probably thier best news yet. To see the 60 day flows with minimal decline after those very concerning 30 day declines, im surprised it didnt really kick up. Got hold of some decent parcels too with no real dificulty. 

I honestly think on the back of those 30 day numbers this thing was a real worry. But right now the 60 day numbers have basically eliminated that concern.   Definitely worth a punt on these numbers. 

Anyway the market does stupid things, im sure sooner or later they will realise. until then we wait.


----------



## Agentm (15 February 2011)

Sharejon said:


> Do hilcorp use compressors in their wells?
> 
> I've never really investigated technical specifics about the wells, I just analyse declines/production/reserves.
> 
> Cheers.




the compressors takes the gas from the well up to the right pressure for the gas pipeline

it would be something hilcorp uses in all its operations involving gas pipelines

cheers


----------



## Agentm (15 February 2011)

rbs valuation makes sense

Valuation and target price – increasing both (again)

Should the test of Teal EFS #1H prove successful, Texon's WI in the EFS in Leighton-
Mosman-Rockingham-Sutton has potential for 30-34mmboe of resource. At US$5.00/bbl, and risked to 75% this equates to approximately A$0.70/TXN share. For the Olmos reservoir, there are 24 further Proven and Probable undeveloped locations to be drilled with certified 2P reserves attributable to Texon’s WI totalling 2.9mmboe at Leighton. Our valuation from production is A$0.32/TXN share. The Olmos reservoir in Mosman-Rockingham, other leased targets and the Seitel agreement offers further upside potential.

The second horizontal well in the Mosman-Rockingham leases in the vicinity of the MR #1 well which tested the EFS – Teal EFS #1H – recorded logs comparable with those from TR EFS #1H.

A fracture stimulation rig and crew have been contracted for March 2011 for this well.
In terms of valuation, EFS acreage can be valued from below US$10,000 per acre to over US$40,000 per acre, depending on its prospectivity – largely the level of liquids – and the stage of development. With Texon holding a nett 4,500 acres, this would range from A$0.25/TXN share to A$1.00/TXN share for the EFS reservoir.

Our NPV calculation determines a value close to A$10 per boe. Risking this to 50% generates a value close to A$0.90/TXN share. Successful production testing of Teal EFS #1H would be expected to see this valuation rise.

The Olmos reservoir – the underlying cash flow

Production models indicate each US$1m well into the Olmos reservoir will access average reserves of about 150,000 barrels of oil equivalent (boe), generating free cash flow of about US$6m per well 


Valuation and risks

Our risked valuation of TXN shares has risen to A$1.16/share (from A$1.05/share) with the successful production test of the first horizontal EFS well. There is material upside to this valuation should the second EFS well prove to be liquids-rich, and should exploration success in the Olmos reservoir match Texon’s recent experience. Success in the high-upside gas plays such as Maroubra would also be expected to have a positive effect on share price. Texon is adequately funded for its next phase of drilling. The risks relate to exploration success, prospect size, and the oil and gas prices in the US, as well as the AUD/USD exchange rate.


----------



## condog (15 February 2011)

Agentm said:


> sometimes there are some amazingly funny things being posted by people..
> 
> you gotta laugh
> 
> ...




Time to grow up agent. get over it dude.


----------



## Sharejon (15 February 2011)

Agentm said:


> sometimes there are some amazingly funny things being posted by people..
> 
> you gotta laugh





It works both ways hey agent, I was quietly amused at your silence after the 30 day averages.

These figures are such a massive improvement over the 30 day averages, good to see.

I don't hold but have kept an eye on TXN's progress and might buy in in the near future if I sell some other shares to free up funds. This has always been my sentiment with TXN though, if they came up with the 60 day goods for this well.


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## Agentm (15 February 2011)

Sharejon said:


> It works both ways hey agent, I was quietly amused at your silence after the 30 day averages.
> 
> These figures are such a massive improvement over the 30 day averages, good to see.
> 
> I don't hold but have kept an eye on TXN's progress and might buy in in the near future if I sell some other shares to free up funds. This has always been my sentiment with TXN though, if they came up with the 60 day goods for this well.




silenced?? what are you talking about, i post every few days, sometimes every day?

loved the figures myself, ip was pretty good..

the figures were in line with the region, and at 45 days the announcement from texon demonstrated great success

imho what texon are doing in the efs is pretty impressive,

cheers


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## starman45 (15 February 2011)

The sellers are trying to breakout of support 0.75 ish.
A weekly close below this area could give many chanches to sellers.
Daily chart.


----------



## bennywizard (16 February 2011)

Thanks Condog for your reply to my message....Its amusing to me at how when good announcements are released the market doesn't necessarily react the way you would expect...or there is often a delayed reaction.
I had already topped up yesterday after the announcement that seemed really good, they then dropped so I topped up some more (thanks to my AUT Margin loan)


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## Sharejon (16 February 2011)

Agent,

I know that, and your input is very constructive, for that I thank you. 

There was no offence intended but I didn't recall reading a post around that timeline that actually voiced your opinion about the 30 day rates.

Thanks for the compressor reply, I thought there would be a possibility that Hilcorp uses the natural pressure from the ground to induce the oil flow. A company I used to own that is drilling in the Amadeus Basin used this approach I believe, I could be wrong though.

This was a wildcat well though, and obviously TXN's drilling is in an established shale, so it is completely different story really. Additionally this speccie company I'm talking about didn't actually frac their well.

In terms of the price movement, if I held I wouldn't be concerned really. When the 45 day results were released it didn't really do anything that day, although in the next few days TXN went on a bit of a run. Sometimes news digestion by the market is delayed, and some increased buying from others will cause some people who are sitting on the sidelines (liking the 60 day announcement) to buy in.


----------



## Sharejon (16 February 2011)

I kind of worded what I said about the compressor wrong.

I meant something along the lines of "I wasn't sure whether Hilcorp used the natural pressure from the ground (like the Amadeus basin company i  used to own) or used compressors."

anyway cheers.


----------



## Agentm (16 February 2011)

sharejon

30 day flow rates are in line with the san miguel

45 day rates were all good, and showing a slower decline than san miguel

60 day flow rates, even with the production losses and the compressor issue still had a slower decline than san miguel you could add a few 1000 bo for those days of losses

i know san miguel has a 18/64 choke and they ran 100 MESH 15000# OTTAWA SAND 40/70 PROPPANT 103,938# 8667 BBLS H2O  more or less throughout the frac

there is no liner info i can find on that well

my view on the efs is very much in line with many out there, i see it as a genuine oil play, with some very very attractive economics.

rbs give a great valuation for txn, and clearly the upside from the wells next month, the second efs well, the 3 olmos sands wells, will impact on the way people value the share,  i recall when adi used to announce things to the market the sp would tank..

i look forward to their research notes next month and i am certain they would be finding it hard to post a negative report.

texon is a pretty exciting proposition as it is an operator, AZZ has previously acted as the first aussie operator in the efs and been a mixed bag for investors, i feel texon is very forthright and relaying accurate data that is easy to analyse. they have a focus on many plays in the AWP acreages, and its likely to become a great investment for me in the future..

my view on the operations of dave mason and john armstrong are that they will succeed and imho progress just as their business plan implies

all good for 2011 imho


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## Sharejon (16 February 2011)

Agent,

I do agree with what you've said, however

the San Miguel flowed at 775 bop/d and 1100 mcfpd, resulting in 867 boep/d using a 12:1 ratio, whilst Tyler Ranch flowed at 1202 bop/d and 782 mcfp/d, resulting in 1267 boep/d using a 12:1 ratio.  (TXN used 12:1 back in their first announcement).

Tyler Ranch (on a restricted choke) initially flowed at a rate almost 50% higher than the San Miguel. Whilst it is great that Tyler Ranch had such great initial flows, the fact that it's 30 day average was in line with San Miguel is a disappointment.

Obviously fantastic declines shouldn't have been expected from TXN's first eagleford well, but the 30 day results (considering the IP) were disappointing.

As for the 60 day results, they were fantastic (considering the 30 day average).

All i'm trying to say is that the 30 day averages were disappointing considering the IP. Happy to leave it in the past though, as these 60 day figures shine the well in a much greater light.

Cheers.


----------



## donteatme (18 February 2011)

http://www.oilbarrel.com/nc/news/di...ks-to-drive-up-q2-production-numbers/860.html

Sounding good


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## starman45 (18 February 2011)

Good is the reaction of the price on support 0.75ish.
Daily chart.


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## Magic Man (18 February 2011)

I own this stock but to me its looking like a dog. Opened at 77.5 to 80 then just as quick back to 75. The market isnt engaging this one yet.


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## Assasin (18 February 2011)

Magic Man said:


> I own this stock but to me its looking like a dog. Opened at 77.5 to 80 then just as quick back to 75. The market isnt engaging this one yet.




Whoe! Magic, what are you saying? Never knock your stock with talk like that. 
If thats what you really think then question your own decission to buy in the first place.
Unless your just searching for a reaction?

I wish I had more money to buy more.


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## bennywizard (18 February 2011)

Magic, did you read this? http://www.oilbarrel.com/nc/news/dis...mbers/860.html

It was already posted here but worth reading if you haven't already...Most oil stocks were down today and for the whole week largely IMO as oil prices have been lower all week, but TXN has just released a great 60 day flow result and they have a number of new wells to report on in the very near future so I'm happy and topped up yesterday and again today. 
If you are buying as a day trader that's one thing, I'm not a chartest or a day trader but if you are buying because of the fundamentals then don't be so worried about the day to day ups and downs, watch for the important announcements and make your decisions accordingly.


----------



## starman45 (20 February 2011)

This week: pressure from the sellers.
But we need more strength because the stock is in uptrend.

Daily chart.


----------



## estseon (21 February 2011)

Posted by 'benamara" on ADFVN 98590 on EME thread today

http://www.financialsense.com/contributors/bill-powers/wti-versus-brent?q=node/4067

Last paragraph

"Despite the all of the evidence that today’s natural gas prices are unsustainable in relation to oil or coal, many of today’s biggest gas traders are still betting big that the recent jump in prices to $4.75 per mcf on the NYMEX was just a fluke.   No natural gas futures contract on the NYMEX trades over $5.00 until January 2012.   While shorting natural gas has been a very profitable strategy over the past two years, and a very popular one as well, *I believe the fundamentals of natural gas will soon get the long awaited rally in natural gas started.  When shorts start covering we will see a spectacular rally in natural gas.*  There are many great ways to participate in the bull market for natural gas such as the several gas-weighted equities in my newsletter Model Portfolio as well as several commodity ETFs."


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## condog (21 February 2011)

Announcnt out re Gas shows in the Wilcox

Nothing to sneeze at with a potential 39mmboe gas and 0.45 mmboe oil.


> Texon advises that it has had encouragement from a log analysis by NuTech of the Wilcox Formation in one of its recent wells. The NuTech analysis indicates pay in the interval where oil and gas shows were observed during drilling.
> The Company has requested NuTech to analyse the Wilcox in all of its nearby wells to establish the extent of this potential Wilcox pay. This work is expected to be finalised in the coming weeks.
> Wells nearby have produced oil from the Wilcox.
> When the NuTech data are available, the Company will assess whether the forward work programme should include wells to test the productivity of the Wilcox.




Still obviously production testing needed, but in any case it adds value to the balnce sheet and potential reserves.


----------



## Agentm (21 February 2011)

condog said:


> Announcnt out re Gas shows in the Wilcox
> 
> Nothing to sneeze at with a potential 39mmboe gas and 0.45 mmboe oil.
> 
> ...






Potential 6mmbbl OIP

Possibly drill, frac, test one vertical well Q2/11

its all been planned for next quarter.


----------



## condog (21 February 2011)

Agentm said:


> Potential 6mmbbl OIP
> 
> Possibly drill, frac, test one vertical well Q2/11
> 
> its all been planned for next quarter.




Yeh i read that , but saw this, so which one is correct.


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## Agentm (21 February 2011)

on slide 55 and 56 they give a bit of insight..

its very much a play thats producing within 3000 or so feet of the latest efs well the teal ranch efs 1h..


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## estseon (21 February 2011)

OGG

It's not 100% clear to me either but if you look at slide 11 of the business plan, you will see that the prospects are split between "A" and "B" projects. The slides following dealing with the "A" projects (19 - 35), the EFS and Olmos LMRS leases, have an "A" heading. LMRS Wilcox can be seen on slide 34. 6mmboe in place and 15% recovery anticipated (Supplementary slide 8) and 50% WI.

You will see that the "B" projects have a aggregate reserve estimate of 39 mmboe. The "B" projects are identified on slide 36 and there is information about them on the slides following. It would seem that the "B" projects are Wilcox sand reservoirs but don't hold me to it.

Hope that this helps.


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## condog (22 February 2011)

Cheers esteon. It appears to me they hope to prove a  probable 6mmboe and a hopefull/wishful target of 39mmboe for the prospect. ?? very ambiguous. 

Oil future prices up 5-6% overnight on concerns in Lybia and Iran. A tribal leader in the oil producing region has vowed to halt oil exports if the violence continues in Lybia.


----------



## Agentm (22 February 2011)

estseon

6000 - 7400 is the wilcox

the slide is 100% correct, and the 15% recovery of the OIP is 0.9 mmbbl

we have to wait for a little while for txn to settle in..my view is that in a week or 2 things will be extremely positive for texon and i can this one flying to new highs

happily adding as i can


----------



## philly (22 February 2011)

TXN in a trading halt this morning pending an announcement regarding a capital raising


----------



## Magic Man (22 February 2011)

is this a good or a bad thing at this point in time for TXn and holders?


----------



## Mofra (22 February 2011)

Magic Man said:


> is this a good or a bad thing at this point in time for TXn and holders?



ST presure on the SP, normally dips down to the issue price - I've had great success with Cap Raisings in the past though (SEA the most recent example, missed the boat on LYC which would have been profitable). 
If it provides working capital that takes a junior player from starting production to cashflow positive it can be lucrative in the MT/LT. Perhaps this is related to Wilcox announcement and TXN are looking at accelerating the drilling program here?

Purpose of capital is usually spelled out in the offer document.


----------



## Kremmen (22 February 2011)

This makes sense of the SP drifting downwards on good news. I wonder who knew of the cap raising, as that seems the more likely reason to me.


----------



## geelongfan (22 February 2011)

could someone clear up some points for me.

1. why do companies do trading halts anyway for capital raises? what is the benefit of the halt? why not just let the trading continue anyway?

2. why does txn need a capital raise? is it to secure more acreage?

3. why would a capital raise decrease txn share price? is it due to more potential debts accrued by the company?

4. i'm guessing it's a good time to buy shares in a company you like the direction of after a capital raise since its share price reaches a low point? why do so many investors sell after a capital raise and jump ship?

5. how does a capital raise work? does txn get a loan from another company? or do they go to the asx and order a bunch more shares to be traded (therefore lowering the value of the share price).

6. how does one buy the discounted shares? is it an 'invite-only' type thing. what determines the price?


agentm or someone could clear this up for me crazy fast... thanks..


----------



## KurwaJegoMac (22 February 2011)

geelongfan said:


> could someone clear up some points for me.
> 
> 1. why do companies do trading halts anyway for capital raises? what is the benefit of the halt? why not just let the trading continue anyway?




As a capital raising is considered market sensitive information, alt needs to be initiated close to the date of the announcement (as this is when the information could potentially be made public prematurely).

Alternatively, the halt can come at the same time as the raising is announced in order to give investors enough time to review the offer and make an informed choice about participating.



geelongfan said:


> 2. why does txn need a capital raise? is it to secure more acreage?




Don't know the reason for this - but they will detail it in the capital raising announcement.



geelongfan said:


> 3. why would a capital raise decrease txn share price? is it due to more potential debts accrued by the company?




Yes that is one of the potential reasons - the second and more common reason is that the share price will be impacted by the amount of new shares that will be issued as part of the raising. Essentially the shares are being diluted and are thus perceived to be worth less.



geelongfan said:


> 4. i'm guessing it's a good time to buy shares in a company you like the direction of after a capital raise since its share price reaches a low point? why do so many investors sell after a capital raise and jump ship?




Can't comment on the first question - financial advice. As to your second question, some investors sell right after a capital raise because usually the new shares are issued at a discount to the current stock price. The investor is therefore 'in the money' straight away and sells to bank this profit. This is a tactic employed by short term traders generally.



geelongfan said:


> 5. how does a capital raise work? does txn get a loan from another company? or do they go to the asx and order a bunch more shares to be traded (therefore lowering the value of the share price).




Basically they can seek funds from a private institution, institutional clients, sophisticated investors or the public. They either take a loan out at a bank for example, or issue new shares at a discounted premium to institutions and sometimes the public. You buy these new shares straight from the company, so they therefore get the funds (less any fees for setting up and managing the raising)



geelongfan said:


> 6. how does one buy the discounted shares? is it an 'invite-only' type thing. what determines the price?




Sometimes it can be an invite only where the public cannot participate. Sometimes it's issued to existing shareholders only. Other times it can be completely open to anybody who wants to participate (whether they are existing holders or not).

The company will determine the price together with advice from a consulting firm. Generally they pick a price below the current market price to act as an incentive for people to purchase the new shares.


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## Agentm (22 February 2011)

geelongfan said:


> could someone clear up some points for me.
> 
> 1. why do companies do trading halts anyway for capital raises? what is the benefit of the halt? why not just let the trading continue anyway?
> 
> ...




in a rough sort of way.. this is a quick response probably full of holes and errors 

1. why do companies do trading halts anyway for capital raises? what is the benefit of the halt? why not just let the trading continue anyway?

its against the practices to trade at a advantage or disadvantage, so a company puts in a trading halt, the company has allowed time for in this case a CR to happen, then it can trade again with all knowing whats on the table

2. why does txn need a capital raise? is it to secure more acreage?

not been disclosed, but imho its part of it, and to fund further wells or a more rigorous well program in unison with more acreages

3. why would a capital raise decrease txn share price? is it due to more potential debts accrued by the company?

it may decrease the sp, particularly as in most cases, the CR is at a discounted price, but.... many cases the addition of assets or the value of the project announced in the next announcement can often cause the share to maintain its value and i have seen many times where a CR has not meant a considerable dint in the sp at all..


4. i'm guessing it's a good time to buy shares in a company you like the direction of after a capital raise since its share price reaches a low point? why do so many investors sell after a capital raise and jump ship?

who knows if its a good or bad time, its really where you sit in a risk reward envelope imho.. some would profit take and move on, some would hold,, and many would also think about adding.. usually a cap raising comes with an addition of some form of pay off, and in the case of oil.. it can come quick.. so often its a case of first in best dressed.

5. how does a capital raise work? does txn get a loan from another company? or do they go to the asx and order a bunch more shares to be traded (therefore lowering the value of the share price).

texon adds shares to their register, and in this case, through a broker, allocates a price for those share, in this one its .65 and it will be taken up in a heart beat.
the broker charges a small fee for their services, and organises the CR as the company requires it, so if its only to sophisticated investors, they have a roll of many on their books that will fill a small cap raising in a few hours. if its larger it may also involve giving shareholders an opportunity to add, and in this case i believe it will happen also. so they send out forms to all shareholders and get it put away. 
under a certain % any company can raise capital and not need a vote by all shareholders, i think this one will be under the requirement for a extraordinary general meeting.

6. how does one buy the discounted shares? is it an 'invite-only' type thing. what determines the price?

rbs is running this one, they will sell a % to their regular clients, and for the rest of the capital it will be offered an allotment by notice to all shareholders


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## Magic Man (22 February 2011)

Great answers there, what price do we expect the CR. 0.60 - 0.65 cents?


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## Agentm (22 February 2011)

Magic Man said:


> Great answers there, what price do we expect the CR. 0.60 - 0.65 cents?




.65 is the  price ..

texon has got a lot of places to expand, either through rights with seitel or with expansions into the efs.

we can only pray the sp itself tanks to .65...


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## Magic Man (22 February 2011)

Too buy more??


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## Miner (22 February 2011)

It looks like joe has relaxed the 100 character restriction.
I also noticed in the last few threads there were suggestion on the future price of TXN after the trading halt will be.
Sorry for my ignorance if earlier restriction not to predict price policy has also been relaxed.

It is time to  call Johny Howard back to have comfortable and relaxing mood

disclaimer : Holding TXN and watching the behaviour of market in next few days.


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## Agentm (23 February 2011)

Magic Man said:


> Too buy more??




indeed..  but i have a strong feeling that announcements may on the horizon that may interfere with my hopes



Miner said:


> It looks like joe has relaxed the 100 character restriction.
> I also noticed in the last few threads there were suggestion on the future price of TXN after the trading halt will be.
> Sorry for my ignorance if earlier restriction not to predict price policy has also been relaxed.
> 
> ...




miner as .65 is the price of the CR, which is confirmed by those whom have had the offer given, then a hope we have is that the sp will tank in that direction and we can buy more on market on top of what is offered by rbs

price predictions of the way the sp may go is merely a hope i have, its a possibility, and so the possibility a whole swag of news stops and added value item can be announced which would possibly prevent such a dream of a sp drop to occur, and we are only able to get the discounted stock that is offered by rbs solely.

my view on the matter is that texon has not been idle for one moment, and its momentum into other plays like the wilcox, pearsall and other plays in other counties are being vastly underestimated

fingers crossed the sp tanks... it offers opportunity for those whom see the value..
all imho and dyor

wilcox map for mcmullen county for those whom want to figure out how lucrative it can get


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## Agentm (23 February 2011)

i am pretty impressed with petohawk and with anadarko in the efs well development. recently i have been monitoring some amazing flow rates from both operators in both mcmullen and dimmitt county..

i know conoco were working hard with halliburton in expanding the cobra frac into the efs wells but these reports from petrohawk are great news for the efs operators imho

petrohawk have used the hiway frac system on their more recent wells in hawkville

go here for the slide presentation

Company Employs Breakthrough Schlumberger Frac Technology Successfully in the Eagle Ford Shale

Petrohawk implemented Schlumberger's MP7 (HiWAY) flow-channel fracturing technique since October 2010 on a select number of wells as a trial to determine the impact of this novel methodology on horizontal multistage production in the Eagle Ford Shale. The initial tests were located in various areas of Hawkville Field. The HiWAY fracturing technique combines fit-for-purpose fracture modeling, fracturing fluids and high-frequency proppant pulsations. The HiWAY method effectively creates flow channels within the fracture network and increases the overall stimulated reservoir volume and permeability.

Initial production results from this limited set of wells reflect average production increases of approximately 37% in the areas with gas and natural gas liquids and an average of approximately 32% in the high condensate yield areas. Additionally, EUR increases from the limited trial, based on internal estimates, ranged from 25% to 90% higher as compared to offsetting wells completed with conventional fracturing techniques. Petrohawk has converted 100% of frac services provided by Schlumberger in the Eagle Ford to HiWAY. Currently, Petrohawk is utilizing all available capacity of this technology.

Any changes to expectations for the Company's Eagle Ford Shale productivity and EURs as a result of the use of HiWAY will be made after additional data is gathered. The Company has released additional data on its results using HiWAY on its website, www.petrohawk.com.


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## Kremmen (23 February 2011)

They now have an extra 1140 acres in Eagle Ford, at 95% WI, taking them to 5640 net acres in Eagle Ford.


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## condog (23 February 2011)

Texon advises that Peeler #2 (“P#2”) has reached its total depth of 2,774 metres (9,100 feet). This is the ninth well in the Leighton oil and gas field – all of which have been successful.
The Olmos in P#2 has similar reservoir characteristics to the Olmos in the previous eight (8) Leighton wells.
Oil and gas shows were also encountered in shallower Wilcox reservoirs. These shows will be evaluated using high resolution log analyses techniques, combined with side wall cores and pressure data to assess their importance to the Company.
It is now planned to run production casing in the well after which the Olmos will be fracture stimulated in March and then the well will be connected for oil and gas production.
The rig will now move to Tyler Ranch #8, the third well in the current three well back to back Olmos production drilling program of Leighton.
Texon has a 50% working interest (37.5% net revenue interest) in Peeler #2.


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## Agentm (23 February 2011)

ASX Release

23 February 2011

EAGLE FORD

ADDITIONAL 1,140 ACRES

Texon advises that it has secured lease agreements to purchase 1,140 acres near its Leighton / Mosman / Rockingham / Sutton (“LMRS”) leases and which are prospective for oil and gas in the Eagle Ford.

*One of the leases is contiguous with the Company’s LMRS leases where the Company has recently drilled two horizontal Eagle Ford wells.* The first of these has been on production for 60 days (please refer to the Company’s announcement dated 15 February 2011). The second Eagle Ford well has been drilled and is due to be fracced and tested in March this year.

The other leases are located about 5km to the south east of the LMRS and there are producing Eagle Ford wells nearby.

Texon will have a 95% Working Interest in the new leases.

*The addition of these leases takes the Company’s Working Interest Eagle Ford lease holding to 5,640 acres, representing a potential of some 29 mmboe to the Company’s current Working Interests.*




2nd announcement

ASX Release

23 February 2011

NINTH LEIGHTON OLMOS WELL - SUCCESSFUL WILCOX OIL SHOWS

Texon advises that Peeler #2 (“P#2”) has reached its total depth of 2,774 metres (9,100 feet). This is the ninth well in the Leighton oil and gas field – all of which have been successful.

The Olmos in P#2 has similar reservoir characteristics to the Olmos in the previous eight (8) Leighton wells.

Oil and gas shows were also encountered in shallower Wilcox reservoirs. These shows will be evaluated using high resolution log analyses techniques, combined with side wall cores and pressure data to assess their importance to the Company.

It is now planned to run production casing in the well after which the Olmos will be fracture stimulated in March and then the well will be connected for oil and gas production.

The rig will now move to Tyler Ranch #8, the third well in the current three well back to back Olmos production drilling program of Leighton.

Texon has a 50% working interest (37.5% net revenue interest) in Peeler #2.
Please refer to Texon’s website for announcements by the Company: www.texonpetroleum.com.au

Oil and gas futures prices (Source: NYMEX March 2011 contracts)
Oil: US$94.06/bbl
Gas: US$3.86/mmbtu (approx. US$5.80/mcf for all Texon gas - including US$6.60/mcf for Olmos and Eagle Ford gas which currently make up 65% of Texon’s gas production)


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## condog (23 February 2011)

Chris Brown from RBS has just released a new TXN research paper

risked valuation $1.26
target price $1.16

Builds on the business plan - and gives the focuses as
1) new leases
2) third EFS (mosman-rockingham) + due to swift drilling one adjacent to the Leighton-Sutton field, under the terms of the lease TXN will be obliged to drill a forth EFS there.
3) Olmos development 
4) Wilcox evaluation

FY11 forecasts
Rev $23.5m
NPAT $6.4m
EPS $0.031

FY12 forecasts
Rev $51.5m
NPAT $19.1m
EPS $0.085

Valuation and risks
Our risked valuation of TXN shares has lifted to A$1.26 with a stronger long term oil price,
although offset ion part by a stronger A$/US$ exchange rate. We have also increased the
valuation of the exploration acreage to allow for the drilling in 2011 of the two high-upside gas
wells, and the two vertical Wilcox wells. Our target price is discounted by 10% to A$1.16/share ?
our previous valuation. Upside to this valuation would come with further development, and
exploration success at other prospects.
Commercial production from the second Eagle Ford Shale well within Texon?s leases would add
substantial value and reduce the discount currently applied to the valuation. Success in the highupside
gas plays such as Coolangatta would also be expected to have a positive effect on share
price. With over A$20m in cash and no debt, Texon is adequately funded for its next phase of
drilling, expected to demonstrate the commerciality of the EFS and quadruple production from the
Olmos reservoir. The risks relate to exploration success, prospect size, and the oil and gas prices
in the US, as well as the AUD/USD exchange rate.


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## AngusSmart (23 February 2011)

Question regarding the C/r are us Investors going to get a bite? or is it to the big fish only?

i bought in just on a week ago, and am keen to get more, i need another AUT...


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## Agentm (23 February 2011)

ASX Release

23 February 2011

CAPITAL RAISING ACTIVE WORK PROGRAMME

Capital Raising

Texon Petroleum Ltd announces that it has successfully completed a placement of 24,166,681 million shares to sophisticated and institutional investors at an issue price of $0.65 per share to raise approximately $15.7 million. The placement, was very strongly supported by existing shareholders, institutional and sophisticated investors. RBS Morgans was the Lead Manager to the placement with the support of Patersons Securities Limited.

The new shares will be issued in accordance with the 15% Listing Rule 7.1 which does not require shareholder approval. The price represents a discount of 12% to the last closing price of the Company’s shares traded prior to the Company requesting a trading halt.

The Company also plans to offer eligible shareholders the opportunity to subscribe for additional shares under a Share Purchase Plan (“SPP”) in the near future at the same price as the placement. The Record Date for shareholders to participate in the SPP will be 5:00pm AEST on 22 February 2011. The SPP offer will be posted to shareholders on or about 7 March 2011.

Work Programme

The funds will primarily be used to drill, frac and test a fourth Eagle Ford well. The Company’s third Eagle Ford well will be funded from existing cash and cashflow. These wells are scheduled for drilling in May and June, and fraccing and testing in August. The raising will also fund the acquisition of 1,140 acres of Eagle Ford prospective leases near the Company’s Leighton/Mosman/Rockingham/Sutton (“LMRS”) leases (see separate release dated 23 February 2011) as well as 3D seismic over these new leases.

The funds will be used to frac and test one and possibly two existing vertical wells on the LMRS where the Eagle Ford is present.

Also, it is planned to drill and test the Wilcox oil shows referred to in the Company’s release of 21 February 2011 in two vertical wells, one in the Leighton area and one on 

Mosman.

The Company has embarked on an Expanded Mapping Project to more comprehensively investigate the 180 3D seismic surveys for prospects for drilling in 2012

In addition to the above projects the Company plans, from existing cash and cashflow during 2011, to:

Frac and test its second Eagle Ford well in March;

Prepare and adopt a plan to monetize and develop its Eagle Ford lease holdings;

Drill seven (7) Leighton Olmos development wells;

Conduct 3D seismic over its Mosman-Rockingham leases to enable more thorough 
mapping of the Eagle Ford, Olmos, Wilcox and Pearsall targets;

Drill the Coolangatta and Scarborough prospects in Q2 and Q3 respectively. These projects have a combined upside potential of 34 mmboe as to the Company’s Working Interest.


The coming months will be an important time for Texon when successful project outcomes could see an increase in the value of the Company.


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## philly (23 February 2011)

AngusSmart said:


> Question regarding the C/r are us Investors going to get a bite? or is it to the big fish only?
> 
> i bought in just on a week ago, and am keen to get more, i need another AUT...




hey AngusSmart, 
yes we will. Late release to the ASX today :-
The Company also plans to offer eligible shareholders the opportunity to subscribe for additional shares under a Share Purchase Plan (“SPP”) in the near future *at the same price as the placement.* The Record Date for shareholders to participate in the SPP will be 5:00pm AEST on 22 February 2011. The SPP offer will be posted to shareholders on or about 7 March 2011.

65cents a share will be peanuts by the end of this year


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## AngusSmart (23 February 2011)

philly said:


> hey AngusSmart,
> yes we will. Late release to the ASX today :-
> The Company also plans to offer eligible shareholders the opportunity to subscribe for additional shares under a Share Purchase Plan (“SPP”) in the near future *at the same price as the placement.* The Record Date for shareholders to participate in the SPP will be 5:00pm AEST on 22 February 2011. The SPP offer will be posted to shareholders on or about 7 March 2011.
> 
> 65cents a share will be peanuts by the end of this year




Think... and one shall receive. good news!!


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## bbker (23 February 2011)

I've missed out on all counts - CR and coming SPP  


I wonder how the share price will look tomorrow, up to 7 March 2011 and in between.

Anyone care to speculate?



philly said:


> hey AngusSmart,
> yes we will. Late release to the ASX today :-
> The Company also plans to offer eligible shareholders the opportunity to subscribe for additional shares under a Share Purchase Plan (“SPP”) in the near future *at the same price as the placement.* The Record Date for shareholders to participate in the SPP will be 5:00pm AEST on 22 February 2011. The SPP offer will be posted to shareholders on or about 7 March 2011.
> 
> 65cents a share will be peanuts by the end of this year


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## condog (23 February 2011)

bbker said:


> I've missed out on all counts - CR and coming SPP
> 
> 
> I wonder how the share price will look tomorrow, up to 7 March 2011 and in between.
> ...




Generally after a CR, selling will increase and the sp will move towards the CR price, till the supply side returns to normal. The 1140 acre is a bonus as it immediately adds to reserves of around 20%. Thus it may help the sp to have a minimal post CR hangover.


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## philly (23 February 2011)

bbker said:


> I've missed out on all counts - CR and coming SPP
> 
> 
> I wonder how the share price will look tomorrow, up to 7 March 2011 and in between.
> ...




hey bbker,
trying to pick the bottom of a SP is a difficult no its an impossible task.

As Condog says
Generally after a CR, selling will increase and the sp will move towards the CR price, till the supply side returns to normal. The 1140 acre is a bonus as it immediately adds to reserves of around 20%. Thus it may help the sp to have a minimal post CR hangover

Sometimes it pays just to be in it and enjoy the ride. There are 2 questions you need to ask yourself
do you like TXN and the way it is conducting its business? 
Do you think the current SP has some upside? 
If your answer is yes to both then buy it
by the end of the year whatever price you paid for it will look cheap
All IMHO & DYOR


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## zzaaxxss3401 (23 February 2011)

philly said:


> Sometimes it pays just to be in it and enjoy the ride... All IMHO & DYOR



Good advice philly. I dipped in on Monday for a couple of thousand shares. I'm hoping I'll just scrape under the record date. Fingers crossed. I'll definitely be buying up big, if I made it. :


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## donteatme (23 February 2011)

Also bought in last week, can't wait to get in at some 65c Texon goodness


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## Miner (24 February 2011)

i am sure the following news was posted earlier as it is dated 17 Feb
But I saw it today so posting taking the benefit of doubt

February 17, 2011

Texon Petroleum Has Four Wells To Test In Coming Weeks To Drive Up Q2 Production Numbers





These are busy times for ASX-quoted Texon Petroleum, which is seeking to prove the commercial potential of its 5,000 acre lease position within the* emerging Eagle Ford Shale in Texas. It cannot have escaped the attention of regular readers that the Eagle Ford is *one of the hottest plays in the US, because of the oily sweet spots that ensure premium revenue streams for operators at a time when natural gas prices remain depressed – ironically, because of the natural gas supply surge as shale drilling took off around the previously gas-short country.
*Texon Petroleum may be an oil junior but it is punching above its weight as a new producer in this shale hot spot, where acreage has been trading at increasingly high premiums as companies, including Statoil, CNOOC and Shell*, seek to build exposure to this oily sweet spots in this promising play.  Texon has one well producing from the Eagle Ford, the Tyler Ranch EFS-1H well, which came online in December with an initial production rate of 1,267 boepd (1,202 bpd of light sweet crude and...


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## zzaaxxss3401 (24 February 2011)

donteatme said:


> Also bought in last week, can't wait to get in at some 65c Texon goodness



Hmmm.... I thought I would be included. Unfortunately, after speaking with CommSec and ComputerShare the "record" date is actually the "settlement" date at CommSec. I was able to determine this based on my AUT shares which were purchased on a Thursday, but settled on the following Tuesday. ComputerShare have the Tuesday as the "record" date. ComputerShare have no record of my TXN purchase (still) from Monday.

Why does a company bother going into a trading halt for 2-3 days if it isn't for the last day's trades to settle (and be recorded on the share registry)? TXN went into a trading halt on Tuesday (10AM), and their record date is the same day at 5PM.

I entered into a contract (offer / accept) on the Monday as a buyer and paid a premium of around 10c per share to the SPP. The seller however, has managed to sell them before the SPP is announced AND is able to buy back more at a 10c discount.

I might as well dump the shares (along with everyone else over the 3 days prior to the trading halt - which could be up to 1.4 million shares) at opening today and try to buy them back somewhere in between the last share price and the SPP price. Doh!


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## condog (24 February 2011)

Watch it, if it drops to 66c 67c its probably a good buy, as the 65c SPP will get scaled back dramatically anyway.


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## Agentm (24 February 2011)

condog said:


> Watch it, if it drops to 66c 67c its probably a good buy, as the 65c SPP will get scaled back dramatically anyway.




we can only hope.. its not falling as rapid as i would have liked..

ready to buy under .70 today but there is a way to go yet if it gets there..

seems to have turned a little..


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## subi1 (24 February 2011)

zzaaxxss3401 said:


> Hmmm.... I thought I would be included. Unfortunately, after speaking with CommSec and ComputerShare the "record" date is actually the "settlement" date at CommSec. I was able to determine this based on my AUT shares which were purchased on a Thursday, but settled on the following Tuesday. ComputerShare have the Tuesday as the "record" date. ComputerShare have no record of my TXN purchase (still) from Monday.
> 
> Why does a company bother going into a trading halt for 2-3 days if it isn't for the last day's trades to settle (and be recorded on the share registry)? TXN went into a trading halt on Tuesday (10AM), and their record date is the same day at 5PM.
> 
> ...




I can't understand it. You would think they would give holders before the Trading halt the right to participate.


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## condog (24 February 2011)

subi1 said:


> I can't understand it. You would think they would give holders before the Trading halt the right to participate.




Thems the brakes, thats pretty normal. Stops those who get wind of it before the THalt participating, which is fair for holders.


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## donteatme (24 February 2011)

I bought in on 16 Feb, should be good?

I'm not too worried about the scale back, I just wanna get as much as I can


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## geelongfan (24 February 2011)

donteatme said:


> I bought in on 16 Feb, should be good?
> 
> I'm not too worried about the scale back, I just wanna get as much as I can




i think the quota has been filled? i.e. no offers to us smaller investors in txn will be generated @ the 0.65 CR SP


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## skyQuake (24 February 2011)

subi1 said:


> I can't understand it. You would think they would give holders before the Trading halt the right to participate.




Does seem quite unusual - its giving people who have already sold pre-cr rights to the SPP.


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## subi1 (24 February 2011)

condog said:


> Thems the brakes, thats pretty normal. Stops those who get wind of it before the THalt participating, which is fair for holders.




It would be good to have some consistency in the markets. The bigger guys get enough breaks allready.


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## Magic Man (24 February 2011)

Condog have you taken a long term position on this stock or short term? or will announcements alter your desicion making?


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## albaby (25 February 2011)

geelongfan,ordinary(eligible)shareholders will receive an offer on the spp @0.65,offer to be posted on or about the 7mar.


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## adobee (25 February 2011)

pretty sure I heard Texon advertising on 873am Money Show (afternoons from about 530 -830), I only caught the end of the advert but I am sure it said something like get your piece of Eagleford / Texas shale oil ... Texon Petroleum ..  

Suprised that they have decided this type of advertising is necessary .. bit like CCC.. not sure whether it is really that helpful..


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## Agentm (25 February 2011)

i have been following the anadarko chesapeake and petrohawk efs wells closely for a few months now, mainly because i cant believe what i am seeing, but in the recent cheaspeake presentation that i could no post up, they elaborated with some 20 slides on how they view the rock matrix in the efs in our region

anyway, i am posting up some interesting well results that until now have been common in the past 6 months in dimmit county, where wells simply dont decline, and in many cases they increase month on month

in mcmullen county, close by to texons acreages, petrohawk have a well called lowe 2h, this one is demonstrating exactly what has been happening in dimmit county.. this steady flow of 10,000+ bopm...  but month in month out.. either going up or down 1000 bopm

just demonstrating that in the region, the major operators are really getting a handle on the efs in terms of choke settings and flowing these wells steady..







this came from swift overnight also.. 

The test rates in the table above were all consistently measured after the Company implemented a specific reservoir management initiative that includes producing all of its horizontal wells in this core area at restricted choke settings. Initial choke settings are as low as 12/64? and are gradually increased to a setting of up to 20/64? and produced at this level for an extended period of time. This technique has resulted in higher initial pressure measurements and shallower initial production declines.

Completion efficiencies realized by a contracted fracture stimulation crew have reduced the Company's current backlog of uncompleted wells to 3 operated and one non-operated. While drilling activity is accelerated to build a sufficient inventory to maintain full utilization of this crew, the crew and equipment have been returned to the service provider (as contractually allowed) for a period of approximately one month. This will assist Swift Energy in balancing its drilling and completion activity for the rest of the year while at the same time providing a slight financial benefit to the Company.

The Company is currently drilling three operated horizontal wells in McMullen County, with two wells targeting the Eagle Ford shale and one well targeting the Olmos tight sand.


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## condog (25 February 2011)

This is massive news. 



> SUBJECT:  Aurora Oil & Gas Limited – New Frac Technology Upside
> IMPACT: Positive – Could improve EUR’s per well by at least 25%.
> SUMMARY:  Petrohawk Energy announced early success with a new frac technique within the Eagle Ford play.  Schlumberger has developed a new stimulation technique called “HiWay” Flow-Channel Hydraulic Fracturing that fundamentally changes the way proppant fractures generate conductivity, allowing bigger flow channels and subsequently higher EUR’s per well in theory.
> DETAILS:
> ...




Cheers pramond for this.

A 25% lift in EUR's just on the back of a new frac method is massive. It effectively now values TXN at $1, AUT at over $4, and SEA at around $1.30 if they utilise it. 

Particularly relevant for AUT and TXN. Possibly for HOG, SEA and EKA.


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## estseon (25 February 2011)

condog,

agreed.

I'm mentally locked into AUT until I see the NSAI report but I could be topping up here after that. I really could not care a stuff about 9c discount. I've said pretty much the same about the last 3 raisings by AUT. Added value per share in issue is more important - getting the discount is just added glory. I bought AUT at 42c and I bought it after ADI at 86c. I bought TXN at 54c and I'd buy it at much higher post release of the AUT NSAI report. Who cares about a 9c discount? With the additional acreage and funding to production from 4 EFS laterals, as well as all the other projects programmed, that 9c discount will be a dim memory in 6 months time.

Investors holding firmly at this level and having cash available must consider why they are not buying. To my mind the only legitimate obstruction is excessive exposure to one stock, but that depends upon personal portfolios.


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## condog (26 February 2011)

estseon said:


> condog,
> 
> agreed.
> 
> ...




I honestly think most the SPP recipients will be bitterly disappointed anyway as theres no doubt its going to be popular, massively oversubscribed and scaled back. Small players might find it ok, but anyone going big on these companies will find it a petty little issue hardly worth the time filling out the forms imo.


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## condog (26 February 2011)

adobee said:


> pretty sure I heard Texon advertising on 873am Money Show (afternoons from about 530 -830), I only caught the end of the advert but I am sure it said something like get your piece of Eagleford / Texas shale oil ... Texon Petroleum ..
> 
> Suprised that they have decided this type of advertising is necessary .. bit like CCC.. not sure whether it is really that helpful..




Im all for companies marketing themselves to investors, but honestly that would be a complete waste of money. 

Traveling to the conferences, interacting with brokers, getting the broers interested enough to write reports of thier own backs etc. TXN only needs to ring AUT and copy thier promotion , they have done an incredible job of bringing in lots of big investors and hoards of medium sized ones.


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## geelongfan (26 February 2011)

here is a recent report by RBS for those interested (released 23 feb 11)


http://www.texonpetroleum.com.au/Documents/Investor/Research2011/tplsar110223.pdf

they have a target price of 1.26 over 12 months..


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## condog (27 February 2011)

Magic Man said:


> Condog have you taken a long term position on this stock or short term? or will announcements alter your desicion making?




I only buy in once i bel;ieve we will see good multiples. So hence im in long, because of the CGT implications.  However if things turn be, out i a flash, If they get lots better with no significant price reflection, then i will go in more.

RBS have a $1.16 valuation / target, which imo needs upgrading 25% to reflect the pulsated frac boost to EUR's. If it falls now imo its a buy. Target approx $1.39, with plenty of room now for regular upgrades to that figure.


----------



## condog (27 February 2011)

I suggest all holder email
texon.info@texonpetroleum.com.au

and ask firmly that the SPP be delivered in full. 

Express the need for capital going forward and it is far fairer to accept all SPP capital rather then scale us back and then do another institutional CR in 3 or 6 months. 


Tell them to take full advantage of the SPP and use it to accellerate or make acquisitions, if its over subscribed, rather then scale back. 

If your going to do so, do so before monday morning.


----------



## Agentm (27 February 2011)

geelongfan said:


> here is a recent report by RBS for those interested (released 23 feb 11)
> 
> 
> http://www.texonpetroleum.com.au/Documents/Investor/Research2011/tplsar110223.pdf
> ...




nice post geelongfan.. pity about the saints last nite


there is plenty of upside in all the ops txn are engaged in, so expect many additional research notes upgrading the upside month by month.. texon are assessing the efs with a second well about to frac in the coming week, and olmos is into full expansion, all self funded, and the wilcox is interesting little oil play with some pretty startling wells within 3000 feet of the second efs well about to frac..  the olmos wells are confirming some strong wilcox charge in the drilling, so success in that field will be worth keeping an eye on

coolangatta is very much a great target for txn, they have leased it and are ready to drill.. nice upside there

plenty of efs to come in the months ahead

from rbs

Valuation and risks

Our risked valuation of TXN shares has lifted to A$1.26 with a stronger long term oil price, although offset ion part by a stronger A$/US$ exchange rate. We have also increased the valuation of the exploration acreage to allow for the drilling in 2011 of the two high-upside gas wells, and the two vertical Wilcox wells. Our target price is discounted by 10% to A$1.16/share – our previous valuation. *Upside to this valuation would come with further development, and exploration success at other prospects.*

*Commercial production from the second Eagle Ford Shale well within Texon’s leases would add substantial value and reduce the discount currently applied to the valuation.* Success in the high upside gas plays such as Coolangatta would also be expected to have a positive effect on share price. With over A$20m in cash and no debt, Texon is adequately funded for its next phase of drilling, expected to demonstrate the commerciality of the EFS and quadruple production from the Olmos reservoir. The risks relate to exploration success, prospect size, and the oil and gas prices in the US, as well as the AUD/USD exchange rate.


----------



## philly (27 February 2011)

condog said:


> I suggest all holder email
> texon.info@texonpetroleum.com.au
> 
> and ask firmly that the SPP be delivered in full.
> ...




Hi Condog,
email sent.
Come on all ASF TXN holders join in  we may be able to change their mind.
Good luck to all holders


----------



## philly (27 February 2011)

philly said:


> Hi Condog,
> email sent.
> Come on all ASF TXN holders join in  we may be able to change their mind.
> Good luck to all holders




As I said I sent the email and put a return receipt just to ensure it arrived at its destination.
I just received confirmation that my email has been read by Dave Mason.

Come on all ASF TXN holders join in  we may be able to change their mind.
Good luck to all holders


----------



## condog (27 February 2011)

I ent mine yesterday, so im sure it must have been read by now. 

Important to note we are not criticizing, in fact quiet the opposite, we are asking befor the prospectus is sent so they still have a chance to make it a decent sized or open ended SPP size, to keep all  holders happy.


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## zzaaxxss3401 (27 February 2011)

philly said:


> I just received confirmation that my email has been read by Dave Mason.



Or opened and immediately filed in the circular filing cabinet (bin).

I emailed them as well - even though I believe I may have missed out on the SPP cut-off date / time.


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## bennywizard (28 February 2011)

Email to texon.info@texonpetroleum.com.au sent, hope it helps. It would certainly be awesome if we could participate as fully as possible. I hate it when your money is tied up waiting to see how much they will return to you, mean while you could have purchased other stocks, so hope they make it clear how much we can get up front.
Good luck to all holders


----------



## condog (28 February 2011)

Reply from Texon


> Thank you for your email and appreciate your thoughts. We will bear them in mind when the time comes.


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## AngusSmart (28 February 2011)

If you notice in the report today the spp is pending..

could this mean maybe us small timers will get a bite?


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## philly (28 February 2011)

zzaaxxss3401 said:


> Or opened and immediately filed in the circular filing cabinet (bin).
> 
> I emailed them as well - even though I believe I may have missed out on the SPP cut-off date / time.






condog said:


> Reply from Texon



Hey Condog,
I also got the same response. At least it has been read. Its up to them what they do now


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## bennywizard (1 March 2011)

I got the same response, it a very fast as well sent sunday evening and received a response the monday morning, lets hope we all get a good bite of the cherry


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## condog (2 March 2011)

I beleive the SPP prospectus was to be issued 7th march.??


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## ColB (2 March 2011)

Looks like we're finally away.  Seller/s at .75c appears to have dissappeared.  Onward and upward


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## bbker (2 March 2011)

I thought I paid too much for a couple of cents under that because .75 isn't worth .75 after dilution.

So I thought a retrace under .70 would've been expected but we'll see what happens


----------



## geelongfan (2 March 2011)

bbker said:


> I thought I paid too much for a couple of cents under that because .75 isn't worth .75 after dilution.
> 
> So I thought a retrace under .70 would've been expected but we'll see what happens




shares get diluted.. capital gets an increase.. it kind of cancels each other out
txn also has a lot of news coming out too.. so that really helped nullify the effects of the CR


----------



## Assasin (2 March 2011)

geelongfan said:


> shares get diluted.. capital gets an increase.. it kind of cancels each other out
> txn also has a lot of news coming out too.. so that really helped nullify the effects of the CR




Still plenty of time for a retrace, from past AUT experience, the 2 weeks after a CR are always a bit messy as profit takers take their 5-10% earn from the CR.
Could be wrong with this one as management seemed to have timed it well.
I still think there may be a chance for another buy-up at around 70c in coming weeks.
Happy to be wrong.


----------



## breaker (2 March 2011)

Good volume today and yesterday..am in.. first day in the green


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## geelongfan (2 March 2011)

Assasin said:


> Still plenty of time for a retrace, from past AUT experience, the 2 weeks after a CR are always a bit messy as profit takers take their 5-10% earn from the CR.
> Could be wrong with this one as management seemed to have timed it well.
> I still think there may be a chance for another buy-up at around 70c in coming weeks.
> Happy to be wrong.




good point about the CR people taking their profit.. but i do not think we will see this stock dip back to 70c for a while.. the market depth today was extremely promising, with buyers outnumbering sellers like 4 to 1. i think the people who dipped in for the CR realize there is quite a bit of steam left in this stock.... time will tell


----------



## Agentm (3 March 2011)

geelongfan

dave told me the instos were falling over each other trying to get in, they got very very little of what they wanted.. imho 10%..  as he said, they will have to buy on market to get in now.. and i think thats what will happen.. those whom understand the upside of texon at this point will be eager to get as much as they can before the onslaught of news and reserves upgrades

texon is not a company that is pushing itself out there btw, its focus is primarily on the operations, its an efs / olmos sands operator, with brilliant success, and imho there will a wilcox story that could be a stunner coming thru,, stay tuned!!!

back to the local picture..






Murphy has put in a permit right next to the swift san
miguel 2h.  i have posted a map up of the location

looks like murphy is equally concerned about drainage to the
reservoir and is matching swift

its all happening with many of the wells very close to texons
acreages all about to be fracced and put on production


----------



## Agentm (3 March 2011)

slight increase in volume.. 2+ mill shares

put the sp up a touch as well as a bonus

starting to run as the teal ranch efs 1h is scheduled for a frac followed by a whole bunch of oil producing olmos sands wells

news will be coming non stop for a good many months imho 

imho, buckle up.. its starting to smell like a run up to me


----------



## Magic Man (3 March 2011)

I agree Agent.. nice day today, awaiting a chance to get my hands on some 0.65 cent stock!


----------



## bennywizard (4 March 2011)

I agree 100%, TXN is ticking all the boxes, I too hope to pick up some at 65c
Has anyone got an offer yet or know when its coming?


----------



## breaker (4 March 2011)

65c I hope you won,t see that in awhile


----------



## zzaaxxss3401 (4 March 2011)

bennywizard said:


> I agree 100%, TXN is ticking all the boxes, I too hope to pick up some at 65c
> Has anyone got an offer yet or know when its coming?



"...The Company also plans to offer eligible shareholders the opportunity to subscribe for additional shares under a Share Purchase Plan (“SPP”) in the near future at the same price as the placement. The Record Date for shareholders to participate in the SPP will be 5:00pm AEST on 22 February 2011. The SPP offer will be posted to shareholders on or about 7 March 2011..." - http://www.texonpetroleum.com.au/Documents/Investor/Announce2011/tplasx110223c.pdf


----------



## donteatme (4 March 2011)

I have done the calculations and worst case scenario, if every eligible shareholder takes up the full $15,000 worth of shares (highly unlikely) and we all get scaled back to 15% of the registry, then we'd get roughly 48% of what we want.

If not, it would require shareholder approval to get more.

DYOR, I might be wrong.


----------



## condog (4 March 2011)

looks like last chances to top up at these prices?


----------



## boff (4 March 2011)

condog said:


> looks like last chances to top up at these prices?




Unless you're eligible for the SPP


----------



## geelongfan (4 March 2011)

boff said:


> Unless you're eligible for the SPP




what does that mean exactly? if i purchased shares 3-4 weeks ago is there a limit to how many i can buy from the SPP? is it based off the amount you purchased in the first place?


----------



## breaker (4 March 2011)

Please excuse my ignorance, but does that mean normal shareholders ie you and me will be entitled to SSP at 65c


----------



## estseon (4 March 2011)

geelongfan said:


> what does that mean exactly? if i purchased shares 3-4 weeks ago is there a limit to how many i can buy from the SPP? is it based off the amount you purchased in the first place?




I've not seen the terms of the issue: has anyone else?


----------



## boff (4 March 2011)

geelongfan said:


> what does that mean exactly? if i purchased shares 3-4 weeks ago is there a limit to how many i can buy from the SPP? is it based off the amount you purchased in the first place?




From reading the Texon announcement (http://www.texonpetroleum.com.au/Doc...asx110223c.pdf), to be eligible you just needed to have been on the register at the record date, which you would have been. I see no reason why the number of shares you can apply for would be restricted based on your current shareholdings. *donteatme* reckons the most one could get is about $7,500.


----------



## nioka (4 March 2011)

The terms of the SPP are not available yet. Sometimes these issues are made on a proportional basis to your holding othe times it can be for different amounts up to $15,000 worth for each shareholder. At times if the amount required is oversubscribed then each application could be scaled back. Its wait and see.


----------



## donteatme (4 March 2011)

boff said:


> From reading the Texon announcement (http://www.texonpetroleum.com.au/Doc...asx110223c.pdf), to be eligible you just needed to have been on the register at the record date, which you would have been. I see no reason why the number of shares you can apply for would be restricted based on your current shareholdings. *donteatme* reckons the most one could get is about $7,500.




No, I would see that as the worst scenario, if everyone that is eligible subscribes for the full $15,000. Not everyone will have $15,000 floating around, so I think we would get at least 48% of what we apply for if it gets scaled back.


----------



## breaker (4 March 2011)

The announcement does mention 15k


----------



## donteatme (4 March 2011)

In my calculation I used 26m shares that they were gonna give out, looks like it's only gonna be ~24m.  So the worst case scenario will be a bit worse that I have given it.


----------



## shanti (4 March 2011)

breaker said:


> The announcement does mention 15k




15K even if scaled back would be great. That's how AUT did it's last SPP.
On the other hand EKA's offer was 1 new share for every 6s registered which disadvantages smaller holders with lesser means.
I hope TXN will go like AUT.


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## AngusSmart (4 March 2011)

Nice after missing the 15k on Aut.. i am going to apply for maximum on this one..


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## Kremmen (4 March 2011)

shanti said:


> On the other hand EKA's offer was 1 new share for every 6s registered which disadvantages smaller holders with lesser means.




I don't see how giving everyone the same percentage gain is anything but fair. The $15k maximum disadvantages those who've contributed most to the company so far. It is also subject to scale-back, which is an annoying inconvenience and cost to everyone.

In the case of this TXN SPP, they have underwritten up to just under $10.5M, which is equivalent to 700 shareholders taking up their full entitlement. Above 700 of us, we don't know exactly what will happen.


----------



## Agentm (5 March 2011)

i have to agree kemmen, the smaller holders have an advantage for sure

my preference would be for a % attributed to the shares you hold

means nothing to me in the wash, i will pin my ears back and get what i can


----------



## geelongfan (5 March 2011)

Agentm said:


> i have to agree kemmen, the smaller holders have an advantage for sure
> 
> my preference would be for a % attributed to the shares you hold
> 
> means nothing to me in the wash, i will pin my ears back and get what i can




as a smaller holder i'm hoping its not a % of what you hold.
everyone getting 15k sounds good to me


----------



## condog (6 March 2011)

Hence why i said, buy what you can in the post CR slump, because the spp will be restricted or scaled back anyway....

SPP are great for beginners, but pathetic for private punters with a sizeable holding.


----------



## jetblack (8 March 2011)

IMO TXN has not really moved that much to the oil price , I've been patiently watching the progress of TXN since their first EFS well, and when I finally had some cash I moved into TXN, from an outside view entry in this stock under 80c was to me a more than fair and reasonable price. Considering where the price of oil is now and what wells TXN will be drilling in the short term.


As far as the chart was concerned the dip down in the RSI  gave me a little more comfort in buying, either way the 65c CR is a bonus , not that I will be able to participate in it , but if it drops back that low *gough* well it would be a crime to let some one else have them.


----------



## Agentm (8 March 2011)

jetblack said:


> IMO TXN has not really moved that much to the oil price , I've been patiently watching the progress of TXN since their first EFS well, and when I finally had some cash I moved into TXN, from an outside view entry in this stock under 80c was to me a more than fair and reasonable price. Considering where the price of oil is now and what wells TXN will be drilling in the short term.
> 
> 
> As far as the chart was concerned the dip down in the RSI  gave me a little more comfort in buying, either way the 65c CR is a bonus , not that I will be able to participate in it , but if it drops back that low *gough* well it would be a crime to let some one else have them.




 the spike in oil will help txn in terms of their projected turnover, john and dave have projected some 600 boepd this quarter, and for the next quarter in 3 weeks they expect an average of 900 boepd.. $2.8 mill return per month.. 

i like the way they are expanding, they want more efs acreages, they have projects all over the place.. and monetising their successes

10 year returns olmos and efs only for texon

Eagle Ford Revenue  $1,050 million
Olmos Revenue         $350   million


Total Revenue          $1,400  million

Possible Capital and Operating Costs  $750  million
Possible Cash Flow (1)                     $650  million


this is @ Oil Price US$100/bbl  Gas Price US$7.6/mcf


anyway, its a share pretty much under the radar really. most of the shareholders are accumulating.. the bot is driving the sp down and on our side for once, making it a brilliant time to accumulate.. as i feel the likelihood of flow success in the teal ranch 1h well that will be fraccing right about now will change the value of the sp bigtime, as will further success on the olmos wells.

i believe reserve valuations come thru after a few  weeks also.

great times right now with the sp right in the right zone to accumulate imho


all imho and dyor


----------



## jetblack (8 March 2011)

Thanks agent for the information, and the rise in oil price will no doubt help TXN. What I was referring to was that TXN have been rising from their operations and ongoing business projects which is creating a solid foundation, in the EFS and Olmos. 

I prefer to see TXN rise through this progress other than pure speculation on oil price, because if it calms down in the Mid-East there will be tears when/if the oil price settles under the $100 mark for certain other oilers.


----------



## Agentm (8 March 2011)

agree jetblack

i was just pointing out what texon revenue is looking like atm.

the 10 year figures came from their own presentation

texon has so much in the pipeline, and is unable to capitalise on all the projects it gets. i saw a project called sunshine being offered for sale by texon at the conference.

there is much opportunity and texon is driving towards expansion into the efs and other plays.

they are employing more and more staff and will be a completely different outfit in 6 months and in 12 months

i think the share is very much off the radar, and with no one is looking beyond the short term on this one.. which leaves massive value in share still to arrive..

all imho and dyor


----------



## McCoy Pauley (8 March 2011)

Texon was talked up on Market Day last night by a bloke from RBS Morgans (can't recall which analyst mentioned Texon) in the context of how to benefit from the increasing oil pirce due to the fact that Texon is likely to raise its reserves in the near future.


----------



## yanman (8 March 2011)

Has anyone received their SRR offer in the mail yet?

I bought into TXN on the 17th so with 3 days settlement that'll put me right on the cut-off date :|


----------



## exgeo (8 March 2011)

TXN - TEXON PETROLEUM LIMITED 
RBS Australia rates TXN as Buy (1) - Target $1.13 (was $1.00). The company has the opportunity to increase its leases in the Eagle Ford Shale block and is essentially obligated to drill a further well to offset another well adjacent to its lease boundary. The broker has adjusted earnings on the news. Looking forward the broker sees the group's drilling program as very low risk, while offering the scope for good cash flows from further successes. Upgraded oil prices mean an increase in price target, Buy rating is retained.

Target price is $1.13 Current Price is $0.78 Difference: $0.35 If TXN meets the RBS Australia target it will return approximately 45% (excluding dividends, fees and charges)


----------



## Agentm (8 March 2011)

hey exgeo

i like the report

imho rbs has more and more opportunity to increase its upside as things progress this month, and into next month

very happy to see those targets go by, and i am not holding for that equation as i am looking further ahead than that

good luck to all holders


----------



## RaymondJ (8 March 2011)

Im waiting to get in and just sold out of SEA today. The only thing Ive got to add is there is no shortage of oil in the world even if Libiya is not producing at all. There is still a glut of oil at the Cushing plant and the U.S. politicians are talking about releasing some of their Strategic oil reserves into the market to bring down the oil price, Im not saying that would affect this stock significantly but it will spook investors. Im saying this so you can keep an eye on the U.S situation with their strategic reserves, they have released Strategic oil reserves before just on anticipation of a shortage back before the first gulf war. Itll be good for me but be carefull people ya dont know what the U.S will do to protect its crawling economy and the U.S is still the biggest user of Energy in the world.
Anyway keep a weather eye on them

Cheers


----------



## exgeo (8 March 2011)

RaymondJ said:


> The only thing Ive got to add is there is no shortage of oil in the world even if Libiya is not producing at all. There is still a glut of oil at the Cushing plant and the U.S. politicians are talking about releasing some of their Strategic oil reserves into the market to bring down the oil price



No shortage of oil in the world? You need to read a bit more - start with "Twilight in the desert" by Matt Simmons. Also have a look for those wikileaks cables regarding the Saudis alleged "spare capacity, or rather the lack thereof, especially light sweet (which Saudi production is not a good sustitute for, being heavy sour)


----------



## RaymondJ (9 March 2011)

exgeo said:


> No shortage of oil in the world? You need to read a bit more - start with "Twilight in the desert" by Matt Simmons. Also have a look for those wikileaks cables regarding the Saudis alleged "spare capacity, or rather the lack thereof, especially light sweet (which Saudi production is not a good sustitute for, being heavy sour)



Well regardless of what theory you aspire to, there is no shortage in the U.S and there is an oversupply in the U.S at the moment as stated by the U.S Energy commission or whatever they are called and some U.S politicians have called for the strategic reserves to be released to the market, this information I got from reading various interviews and articles from places like the Wall St Journal, Reuters, the news hour and the like.
I was merely trying to warn people about the way the U.S will use their strategic reserves, they have done in the past and will do it again to protect their economy, release oil that is. Meybee I should have said the reserves are finite but at the moment the world is well supplied the oil price is going up purely from scare talk, and it will probably come down again soon. If the oil price stays too high for too long it will supress global growth and the global demand will come down. Anyway this is just the info Ive gathered Im ok with it if you dont choose to believe it. Meybee the market will have a better day today the U.S was up 120 points or thereabouts.

this is a headling from an  article from reuters mainly about the U.S states

Analysis: Oil spike threatens deficit-laden states(U.S.)

ok bye


----------



## AlexG1 (9 March 2011)

Agentm said:


> the bot is driving the sp down and on our side for once




Hi Agent - I'm very new to this and still building knowledge - what's the 'bot' you are referring to here?  Some automated trading system?

Thanks,
          Alex.


----------



## Agentm (9 March 2011)

bots have been covered in many threads

this link may help

i noted this last night

HOUSTON---Swift Energy Company (NYSE:SFY) announced today that it has entered into        a long term agreement for natural gas gathering, processing and        transportation services in South Texas with Southcross Energy GP LLC and        its affiliates. This agreement will involve the construction of a new        pipeline to the Company’s AWP operating area in McMullen County, TX.        Swift Energy will have up to 90 million cubic feet of gas per day of        firm capacity for those services. The Company currently expects the new        pipeline to be in service mid-2011.     
            Swift Energy has also executed a long term sales contract with        Southcross Marketing Ltd for the natural gas liquids extracted during        the processing of the gas and a portion of the residue gas that is        indexed to market.


----------



## jetblack (10 March 2011)

I would put a chart out there, but I am having problems with my computer. I f there are any chart peoples, there is a good cause there for a developing cup and handle formation.

I have about $1.05 , with the handle if it had to fall to about 75c,  would sort of tie in with developing announcements.


----------



## AngusSmart (10 March 2011)

Spp forms are in!

it it going to be first in best dressed? or do they go thru everything and average back on the scaling down when maximum is reached?


----------



## bennywizard (10 March 2011)

AngusSmart said:


> Spp forms are in!
> 
> it it going to be first in best dressed? or do they go thru everything and average back on the scaling down when maximum is reached?




Its not first in best dressed and its completely up to TXN as to how they might scale it back, if in deed it is scaled back.


----------



## geelongfan (10 March 2011)

i'm going to wait a couple of weeks to see what the market does before i jump in on the spp.

but i must say that txn has held relatively well compared to a number of other o&g stocks over the past week or so.. a sign of its value imho


----------



## Miner (10 March 2011)

Folks
The SPP offer was reported to have been despatched on 7 March.
I live in Perth and still have not seen it in my letter box
I was a holder on 22nd Feb to be eligible for the SPP.
Can any one please throw some light how long normally it takes to reach at letter box and if you have got it SPP offer I mean before I write to the company ?


----------



## shanti (10 March 2011)

I received paperwork today (in Melbourne). Don't know about Perth


----------



## condog (10 March 2011)

exgeo said:


> No shortage of oil in the world? You need to read a bit more - start with "Twilight in the desert" by Matt Simmons. Also have a look for those wikileaks cables regarding the Saudis alleged "spare capacity, or rather the lack thereof, especially light sweet (which Saudi production is not a good sustitute for, being heavy sour)




Great response.

The issue as i understand it is irrespective of whether your a peak oil subscriber or not, there is no shortage of oil in the world. We have over 100 years supply easy. The issue is the supply demand imbalance. We have hardly any spare capacity. They are drilling as fast as they can in as many places as possible and they are almost unable to keep up with demand. All it takes is little situations like a fire in Lybia or some other key supplier and bang. Demand outstrips supply and the price rockets as punters fret over missing out on supply.

Weve exhausted all the huge oil fileds that where in easy to drill, easy to transport, easy to operate locations close to markets. 

We are no having to go further, into politically unstable areas, unsafe areas, deep and further and thats the issue. As the world economy ramps back up we are having trouble increasing supply, with the increase in demand. 

Even a revolutionary breakthrough would take decades to test, plan, tool up, manufacture, and implement. As such for now we are going to see oil shocks imo every time there is a supply interuption. or potential one. Hurricane season will send shutters through world markets on an annual basis, as they threaten the gulf and southern states of the US annually. 

This is just the begginning so enjoy the ride. Its a great time to be hedging petrol costs by owning some oil stocks, imo.

Oh yeh and when the IEA, the worlds biggest denyer of peak oil suddenly does a complete u-turn and says peak oil has already occurred , its time to at least consider it in your planning. 
http://news.google.com.au/news/search?aq=f&pz=1&cf=all&ned=au&hl=en&q=iea+peak+oil

Havent got my paper work yet.


----------



## Magic Man (10 March 2011)

Condog in your opinion which stock has more upside. TXN or SEA?


----------



## Sdajii (10 March 2011)

Miner said:


> Folks
> The SPP offer was reported to have been despatched on 7 March.
> I live in Perth and still have not seen it in my letter box
> I was a holder on 22nd Feb to be eligible for the SPP.
> Can any one please throw some light how long normally it takes to reach at letter box and if you have got it SPP offer I mean before I write to the company ?




Arrived today in Kinglake (just outside Melbourne metro postal area).


----------



## Miner (10 March 2011)

shanti said:


> I received paperwork today (in Melbourne). Don't know about Perth






Sdajii said:


> Arrived today in Kinglake (just outside Melbourne metro postal area).




Thanks Folks for the update
Yes, I reached home now and found the SPP offer in the letter box. 
I did not realise from Brisy to Perth mail takes 4 days. 
Nevertheless, I am happy to apply for SPP and to get some cash sold out previous holding as soon as it became XR

Regards


----------



## Agentm (11 March 2011)

geelongfan said:


> i'm going to wait a couple of weeks to see what the market does before i jump in on the spp.
> 
> but i must say that txn has held relatively well compared to a number of other o&g stocks over the past week or so.. a sign of its value imho




this txn share wont play ball in terms of crash and burn like the entire sector is doing..

i mean a couple of lousy cents is all its mustered so far..

the possibility of a massive pull back on txn is right now not in the making.. but i am waiting patiently none the less..


----------



## Agentm (11 March 2011)

ASX Release

11 March 2011

TENTH LEIGHTON OLMOS WELL - SUCCESSFUL

Texon advises that Tyler Ranch #8 has reached its total depth of 2,774 metres (9,100 feet). This is the tenth well in the Leighton oil and gas field – all of which have been successful.

The Olmos in Tyler Ranch #8 has similar reservoir characteristics to the Olmos in the previous nine (9) Leighton wells.

It is now planned to run production casing in the well after which the Olmos will be fracture stimulated in March and then the well will be connected for oil and gas production.

This was the third well in the current three well back to back Olmos production drilling program of Leighton and the drilling rig will now be released.

Texon has an 80% working interest (60% net revenue interest) in Tyler Ranch #8.


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## jetblack (11 March 2011)

Agentm said:


> this txn share wont play ball in terms of crash and burn like the entire sector is doing..




Agree, Agentm , I placed an order this morning at 74.5 and thank you, anyway further to my previous post, I managed to put together a ruff chart of the cup and handle formation I was speaking about.  
Couple this with todays announcements I think we will be hitting the $1+ mark shortly.

thats my take, happy to hear from others.


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## geelongfan (11 March 2011)

re : the extraordinary general meeting about the ratification issue of new shares notice that came out today.

does that mean that the SPP may not go ahead after all?


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## Agentm (11 March 2011)

geelongfan

all is fine, it will go ahead

next announcement


11 March 2011

4 WELLS

MARCH 2011 TESTING

Eagle Ford

Texon advises that the fracture testing of its second Eagle Ford well (Teal EFS #1H) has been slightly delayed and is now scheduled to begin next week.

Texon has a 100% WI (75% NRI) in this well.


Olmos

Upon completion of the above project, the contractor will fracture stimulate the three (3) Olmos production wells referred to in the Company’s release of 19th January this year. These wells have now been drilled and the Olmos oil reservoir has been encountered as predicted in each well.

The frac work will take approx one (1) day per well. The wells will be placed in production when the fracture stimulation and testing are completed.

Texon has an average 70% WI (52.5% NRI) in these 3 wells.
Production


During the second quarter of this year, it is expected that the above four (4) wells, if successful will contribute a combined average of 600 boepd to the Company’s production.



impressive announcement imho

cheers


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## condog (11 March 2011)

Good news yeh

lets wait see what the flows are, but if they are good this thing should rocket. As they showed the 60 day declines to be ok, after those dismal 30 day declines last time. 

As far as SEA v TXN. They are entirely different. SEA has exposure to many many many wells but most are small %, so imo it caries less risk and les growth. TXN imo has more potential upside and more potential risk. 

Thats about as good as i can put it, to say anything more definative would be guessing.


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## bbker (13 March 2011)

I think what condog means by "less growth" is less rapidity in growth or slower growth, and the inverse of that - "more potential" meaning faster growth... at least just for the near future being this year, judging by their current state of affairs.

But both TXN and SEA have the potential for the same amount of growth (relative to market cap size of course) even though they're going about things very differently.

I hold both.


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## jetblack (14 March 2011)

Looks like a case of suck it and see, can never be too sure with the markets.

so far to-days price leaves me with a broken handle to my cup, chart. 

Can't blame people for selling.


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## nioka (14 March 2011)

Bound to be some selling in the next few days. The SPP offer is in the mail and there are bound to be some who will sell now to fund the SPP at a cheaper price. The SPP will probably be over subscribed and possibly scaled back so caution is required.


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## Agentm (14 March 2011)

texon has yet to put a production liner into the tyler ranch well.. its declines on the 5 1/2 inch casing is well in line with what you would expect.

introducing a production casing at 90 days in is something i was expecting to happen.

the flow rates on the well will be lower imho, and i can well expect the usual suspects to doom and gloom the heck out of them myself.

whats evident to me is that the volume of drilling in the county is increasing, with multiple completions all around the perimeter of the texon acreages

i am very upbeat on how texon is dealing with the multiple targets it has on the 6000 mcmullen acreages, there is also the coolangatta drill to commence as well as two efs wells in a row in about 50+ days... 

texon is looking for many new targets, its beginning to wind itself up as they employ more and more in texas to bring it all on line..

*Goal

‐40 High Quality Projects for Texon

Five 20mmboe type projects for 2012 drilling


*looking forward to the months and the next few years ahead

fingers crossed the sp tanks some more,, i am happy to accumulate.. imho the market cap right now at $149 million for what it has in the tank is pretty good value.. well at least to me.. as imho many dont see the big picture ..

good luck to the sellers


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## condog (14 March 2011)

In the grand scheme of things weve had a market pullback of around 5-7% and the japan situation, while horrible, isnt likely to cause massive problems globally unless they have a large scale radiation leak that drifts over China or Tokyo. 

If anything now Japan is likely to have stronger economic activity in H2 2011 once the repair and reconstruction phase starts. They will need more Australian resources, more oil, more steel then normal to reconstruct and repair. 

One only has to look at the fundamental intrinsic values of Australian companies to see we are over sold. All 4 banks are under value ranging from 13.3% for WBC to 23.7% for NAB. JBH is 37% under value, BHP 29% under value, woolworths 25%. 

Im seeing good buying opportunities on a number of my stocks and am happily buying while others are selling. Im seeing the correction imo as having bottomed or close to bottomed and i like the value on offer with savings of 10-20% in the small cap oilers.


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## jetblack (15 March 2011)

Agentm , looks like you've seen your 0.68c,


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## Agentm (15 March 2011)

jetblack said:


> Agentm , looks like you've seen your 0.68c,




you aint seen nothing yet

the rout is on in earnest.. so its a case of whom ever fills their sell orders the fastest

its a race to the bottom

right now is not the time to buy, wait until the bottom, then start picking at what ever you want


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## Assasin (15 March 2011)

For all those who missed the CR, nows your chance. Like other small cap oilers, for various reasons, sp normally retraces back to near CR price.
Was only a matter of time.


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## Magic Man (15 March 2011)

I dont think thats the only reason Assassin, i think the fact the market is down 100 points and theres alot of uncertainty about a Nuclear Meltdown is the main reason the stock is down...


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## Assasin (15 March 2011)

Magic Man said:


> I dont think thats the only reason Assassin, i think the fact the market is down 100 points and theres alot of uncertainty about a Nuclear Meltdown is the main reason the stock is down...




Yeah agreed Magic,
                unfortunately this is now likely to go below CR price and wipe out any advantage. Just rotten luck I guess.
Anyway, time to spare a thought for those in Japan and have a holiday from this.
Good luck.


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## condog (16 March 2011)

Assasin said:


> Yeah agreed Magic,
> unfortunately this is now likely to go below CR price and wipe out any advantage. Just rotten luck I guess.
> Anyway, time to spare a thought for those in Japan and have a holiday from this.
> Good luck.




We were due for a pullback after a good run for the broader market. Imo these prices are caused by short term traders and those using stop losses, to me its spells opportunity. 

IMO its your typical market over reaction and imo we should see a strong bounce.

Risk aversion will be replaced by risk tolerance. In a few days those reactors will have totally cooled and the drama will be over. There will still be jitters about Japan, but nothing like the current concerns. No body likes to profit from others suffering, but we have a portfolio to manage and the reality is these have been way oversold. 

Look for the bounce and a quick 20% gain i say. As people realise they jumped like lemmings and shouldnt have sold.


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## Mofra (16 March 2011)

Whilst TXN trades above 65c there is no material change to the fundamentals underpinning the recent strong run IMO - intend to take my full allotment in the SPP.
My experience of the post-SPP period in other stocks has been very positive.


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## Ramblin Round (17 March 2011)

The timing looks right for me to load back up again. Looks like stateside traders seem to be taking advantage of the cash offer so it finally dropped. I'm not the least bit worried about the rebound. This company will succeed.


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## geelongfan (18 March 2011)

i have a question.. if i sold my TXN holdings after i got an offer for the SPP.. can i buy back in on the SPP even if i have no TXN shares now? or did i still need to have the original holding to be eligible for the SPP?

i saw a good opportunity so i had to sell off but I also want to get back in eventually haha


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## Agentm (18 March 2011)

the answer is yes you can buy into the SSP even if you sell all your txn shares

the minimum requirement is to have owned the shares, after that your able to buy or sell as you wish without restriction.

"The offer is made to shareholders who were registered on the share register at 5PM (AEST) on 22 February 2011"


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## estseon (21 March 2011)

geelongfan said:


> i have a question.. if i sold my TXN holdings after i got an offer for the SPP.. can i buy back in on the SPP even if i have no TXN shares now? or did i still need to have the original holding to be eligible for the SPP?
> 
> i saw a good opportunity so i had to sell off but I also want to get back in eventually haha




Note that the offer is only open to Australian and NZ residents if you're relying upon it.

The negative to putting your money in the offer is that you may be scaled back. You might get them cheaper but make less money on the sum that you can invest if the market for the share turns positive before 6 April.


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## estseon (23 March 2011)

Announcement out.

Fracture stimulation and testing of Texon’s second Eagle Ford horizontal well (Teal EFS #1H) commenced on Tuesday 22 March 2011 (Houston time).

The overall programme of fracture stimulation of the well and recovery of the frac fluid is expected to take about two weeks and at the end of which the well will be production tested.

The Company is well positioned to benefit from a successful test now having 6,387 acres (5,914 nett acres) in the Eagle Ford shale trend in the vicinity of this well and the Company’s first Eagle Ford well which has now been producing for 3 months.
The Company’s new 5,900 nett acre Eagle Ford acreage holding represents a 30% increase from the previous holding of 4,500 nett Eagle Ford acres.


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## Agentm (25 March 2011)

hey estseon

*total acreages now stand at 6387..

the new total of the newly acquired acreages is now 1463 *

i liked the announcement myself, the new acreage block a few miles east of the tyler ranch well has had attracted zero comment by anyone, but it impressed me as a shareholder
texon continues to expand into the near region and is picking up acreages all the time

teal ranch 1h is nicely into a frac right now which will bring fresh news shortly.


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## Agentm (28 March 2011)

a few slides from a recent eog presentation

the positive news on the efs keeps on coming... imho texon may be able to price in its new efs well thats now fraccing and the many olmos sands wells about to frac..

eog see 40% return from wells in first 5 years


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## condog (29 March 2011)

reserves report out - looks good - gotogo.


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## Agentm (29 March 2011)

the 2010 reserves report excludes all current wells being fracced

worth a look imho


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## estseon (29 March 2011)

The comment on EFS is reasonably good but more could have been said about Olmos. Looking at the presentation 28 Feb 2011.....

NPV10 at 31/12/10
EFS (16 wells) $118m: total for acreage 70 wells = 70/16 x $118m = $516m
Olmos (1.665mboe) $33.8m: total  about 7mmboe = 7/1.664 x $33.8m = $142m

This equates to about $3.25/share although full exploitation might require further capital dependent on the rate of drilling after the current programme.

Nothing included for Wilcox or Pearsall

Re EFS - same valuer as AUT. AUT broker CMG securities suggested potential for 10 fold increase counting reduced spacing, increased EURs per well + Austin Chalk overlying. It is not clear whether the chalk overlying the EFS is of comparable thickness for TXN's acreage.

Nevertheless, applying the same assumptions re potential drilling density and EURs per well might give 3 to 5 x $516m in due course.


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## Agentm (30 March 2011)

*Re: TXN - Texon Petroleum RBS lifts price target to $1.64*

from riche

Extract from Chris Brown's (RBS analyst) report:

Low-risk, high-value gas exploration

TXN will hold a 100% WI in drilling two gas prospects during 2011, with unrisked upside
values above A$2.00ps (Scarborough), and A$0.25ps (Coolangatta), and will evaluate the Wilcox horizon in the L-M-R-S leases. With over A$35m in net cash and profitable
production, TXN has the capacity to fund its accelerated EFS drilling and land acquisition
program, increased Olmos exploration, its high-value gas exploration and Wilcox evaluation.

Our valuation has lifted to A1.64ps (from $1.26) based on upgraded oil prices and equates to our revised target price. This is on the basis of 215m shares on issue post placement and SPP.


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## Mofra (30 March 2011)

*Re: TXN - Texon Petroleum RBS lifts price target to $1.64*



Agentm said:


> Our valuation has lifted to A1.64ps (from $1.26) based on upgraded oil prices and equates to our revised target price. This is on the basis of 215m shares on issue post placement and SPP.



Makes that 65c placement even more attractive. 
Am I reading the report correctly, or have the new acreages been excluded from the 'possible' NRI figure? If so, adds to the attraction.


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## McCoy Pauley (30 March 2011)

Share price has popped up this morning.  Kicking myself I passed on buying when TXN was around 70c last week.


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## Agentm (30 March 2011)

moffra

the share has so much to offer

besides the amazing EFS.. that play is a blockbuster.

the olmos sands keeps on producing amazing returns

then the wilcox has something to offer, there is a cluster of wells some 3000 foot from tyler ranch that have produced over 1 million BO...  no one talks about the wilcox on the mcmullen acreages besides me, but keep it in the back of your mind imho...

there is coolangatta. a real handy wilcox play, i will post up some regional data in the next month or so, maybe some pictures from texas also when i visit in a few weeks from now..

scarborough... $2 to the share... huge upside on that play.. again. i will also post some regional data in the near term..

texon plans to get things rolling, and take on more and more in terms of plays and prospects.

this is a standout operator.. if your *not* into investing into a oil company as  a farm in partner with no control, *and if you are into oil and gas exploration* with a dynamic proven oil small cap oil company,, texon should be a serious consideration in your portfolio imho...

anyone read the dec 2010 report out today.. catch a look at the P&L??

worth a look imho

good luck to all holders


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## Agentm (30 March 2011)

ASX Release

30 March 2011

SECOND EAGLE FORD WELL TEST PROGRESSING ACCORDING TO PLAN

Texon advises that the frac and test work on its second Eagle Ford horizontal well (Teal EFS #1H) announced on 23 March 2011 is progressing well.

The fracture stimulation part of the project has been completed and the well will start to be flow tested this coming weekend. 

The well will take a few days to recover frac fluid so that test results should be available late next week.


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## philly (30 March 2011)

All good news coming out of TXN yesterday [reserves upgrade] and today [fraccing of 2nd EFS well & Financial report] augurs well for the SPP that closes next week. Strong feeling the SPP will be oversubscribed and that allocations will be scaled back. Happy to get any at 65 cents given positive market reaction to news today. IMHO plenty more upside left in this one. Good luck to all holders.


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## bennywizard (30 March 2011)

Hats off to TXN management for their timing of this CR. The reserves upgrade and financial statement being about a week before the due date of the CR was perfect timing.


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## Agentm (31 March 2011)

i have discussed the wilcox play in the mcmullen acreages before, and its not on many peoples radar i understand..

but regardless, i think its a worthy play for texon to follow up on if its spiking on their well logs

i am posting up a bunch of wells real real close to the mcmullen acreages

the oil and gas here represent *Wilcox totals are 1120400 BO & 995 MMCF*

you do the maths on what you think thats worth .. lol


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## Agentm (5 April 2011)

this is one of the best EFS presentations i have struck for a long time.. exceptional and very relevant to texon in terms of EFS and pearsall

enjoy


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## bennywizard (5 April 2011)

thanks Agent, looking forward to good times with TXN, hope we get our full allocations in this CR


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## Agentm (5 April 2011)

hey benny

best way to get texon to think that way is to put it all up,, and to tempt them

i know thats what i am doing

i tend to think your on the right thoughts there....


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## Assasin (5 April 2011)

Last thing we want is refund cheques as I can't see the sp retracing back to anything like .70 now. 
We did have our chance though 2 weeks ago.
Just have to wait and see. Still grateful for any we get at a discount.


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## estseon (5 April 2011)

More normal trading should resume once the SPP is settled and that's about to happen. AUT's price has stalled awaiting news. The qtly report (assuming that they will continue to report quarterly) should be out within the next 3 weeks and that might give AUT investors an opportunity of releasing cash and re-investing elsewhere. Many investors will have crossed the CGT 12 month line. EKA might absorb some money but there might be some for TXN. A number of investors here have stakes in AUT as well as TXN. This could be the eye of the storm.


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## geelongfan (5 April 2011)

personally.. i believe txn under $1 represents a great buying opportunity.. the news will be flowing freely over the coming months and i think it is only a matter of time until the market catches on to the low risk/high reward portfolio that texon has at its disposal.. the SPP has a few people trying to be tricky.. but once that is done and dusted.. i think even 90 cents will look very cheap by the end of may. simply too much happening in the EFS.. not to mention the fantastic management of the company


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## Ramblin Round (6 April 2011)

I absolutely agree. With what Texon has been adn appears to be doing, they are doing it very well. Good job to the management of Texon. My only quirk (as I have stated before) is that they should be promoting themselves more in Texas.


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## Agentm (7 April 2011)

ASX Release
7 April 2011

*
TWO NEW LEIGHTON OLMOS WELLS COMBINED FLOW 550 BOEPD*

Texon advises that two of its recently drilled 3 Olmos wells on its Leighton Project, (Peeler #2 and Tyler Ranch #8) have begun to flow oil and gas at the gross combined rate of 550 boepd from the Olmos reservoir (comprising 435 bopd and 689 mcf of gas per day).

The Company has an average 65% Working Interest (48.75% net revenue interest) in the wells.

The wells will be connected to oil tanks and the gas pipeline in the next 2 weeks.

The third recently drilled Olmos well (Tyler Ranch #7) has been fracced and is in the process of being tested.

The Company’s drilling success rate remains at 100% in the Leighton Olmos reservoir, including the 2 wells referred to above. There are now 9 Olmos producing wells in the field as well as 25 undrilled Olmos production well locations.


WOW 

that olmos formation keeps on paying back nicely!!


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## condog (7 April 2011)

We should see RBS update on the back of this, although they may wait for the other result as well. Hopefully should be another good result and upgrade.


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## Miner (7 April 2011)

Agentm said:


> ASX Release
> 7 April 2011
> 
> *
> ...






condog said:


> We should see RBS update on the back of this, although they may wait for the other result as well. Hopefully should be another good result and upgrade.





Good morning Agent and Condog

You two are awesome.
I saw the report in ASX and about to upload it at ASF to discover job has already been done 

Good work folks as always and  helping all of us to learn and make money through your collaborative research.

TXN SP is going to reflect it in the market and thank God I utilised my SPP in full extent

Cheers


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## Agentm (7 April 2011)

i have been putting up data about a regional wilcox play very close to the mcmullen acreages

this from texon today confirms my previous posts accuracy

imho dont underestimate the wilcox in mcmullen.. 

ASX Release
7 April 2011

*WILCOX OIL SHOWS

TWO WELLS PLANNED*

On a number of occasions Texon has advised shareholders and potential investors about oil shows observed in Wilcox sands in several of its Leighton, Mosman, Rockingham, Sutton (“LMRS”) area wells. Analysis of electric logs and side wall cores suggests that a significant footage of Wilcox pay could be present in some parts of the Company’s LMRS leases.

The Wilcox sands have produced oil and gas from wells nearby to Leighton – the closest being in the Sofia field located 4km SW of Leighton and 2km north of Mosman Rockingham. *Sofia has produced 1.5 million boe (1.3 mmbbls of oil and 1.2 bcf of gas) from two reservoirs.*

The Upper Wilcox in Sofia was produced from 13 wells on 10 acre spacing with most wells being perforated over a 5-10’ interval. Average production from the upper zone was 106,000 boe per well – 87% oil. Initial production rates were up to 150 boepd. The best well produced 314,000 bbls of oil from 6 feet of perforations in a 17’ thick reservoir. The lower reservoir was produced from three of the above wells adding an average 17,000 boe of production to each of these three wells.

The Wilcox is 5,000 – 6,500 feet deep in the LMRS leases and the gross cost of a completed and connected well is estimated to be US$600-700,000.

The Company plans to investigate the productivity of the Wilcox through two wells to be drilled in the next several months – the first probably in May / June. Texon will have Working Interests of 100 and 50% respectively in these wells.

The Wilcox sands lie above the Olmos reservoir which is already producing from 10 wells drilled on the Leighton leases.

A successful outcome from these projects would indicate that Texon’s LMRS leases could hold an important Wilcox oil resource - in addition to the already producing Eagle Ford and Olmos reservoirs on these leases.


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## condog (7 April 2011)

Agent whats the latest on the LMRS-W abc xyz well costs per well.


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## condog (7 April 2011)

Got the costs of the co today

If the well is 6,000ft, it will be about US$0.6-0.7M (i.e. a Wilcox well);
If it is an Olmos well, it will be about US$1.1-1.5M;
If it is an EFS well, it will be about US$9M.

To get 550boepd off 2 of those is some pretty good economics, 25 more , i say bring em on asap. Be interesting to watch the declines though.

EFS testing this week and over week end, expect results next week id say.

Topped up nicely


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## Agentm (7 April 2011)

some production figures for texon,, 

pretty nice numbers imho


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## condog (7 April 2011)

Agent i think this slide may need updating significantly.

The way i see it is there is currently EFS #1 TR   632  or there abouts
The two LMRS wells published today at 550boepd combined
The previous LMRS wells combined - whats your numbers on these combined
And then next week Teal EFS#1 lets say 500+

In any case by end of next week its possible imo to be 1700+boepd which well and would significantly exceed both TXN and RBS estimates. 

Thoughts anyone. Wait and see, but certainly starting to stack some results up nicely, combine those with current premium pricing and we might se this little baby rocketing next week on Teal results.

Those LMRS-W results will be interesting as the repayment times will be low if they can sustain reasonable flows with low maintainance. Just got to watch our declines carefully, although the 60 day Tylers certainly improved over its 30day decline.


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## Agentm (7 April 2011)

its an average over 3 months

so how it will pan out, with projected declines is an average for the quarter

it may be a tad conservative as you suggest, but they look at a projected 54 mill turnover on the next quarters production.

man.. i am looking forward to visiting texas in a few weeks.  business and pleasure i guess. will be brilliant to catch up with some very fine folk that i owe a lot to.. people that have become great friends of mine throughout.. form sugarloaf 1 to now..


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## rcm617 (7 April 2011)

Condog, 
Have to remember that the values you're quoting are gross , wheras the values in the graphs are net to TXN.


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## condog (9 April 2011)

rcm617 said:


> Condog,
> Have to remember that the values you're quoting are gross , wheras the values in the graphs are net to TXN.




True, in any case they seem to me to be about to be, significantly outperforming TXN projections. Im thinking the Teal #1 EFS result will be published mid to end of this week and if thats anything like Tyler, then we can expect a significant jump in sp imo. 

We will also hear an announcment on the SPP, which is rumoured to be considering a special meeting to take all the SPP subscription, (apparently as per usual way over subscribed) that would allow fast tracking of either a 3rd EFS well, or fast track several LMRS-W wells. The two wilcox scheduled for May Jun could be brought forward at a minimum. 

Interesting week ahead.  I think TXN has a few good weeks ahead of it in terms of sp. If SSP is fully accepted and plans accellerated, plus Teal a decent result, i wouldnt at all be surprised to see us bumping of 1.20 - 1.40 in the near future. Obviously some selling post SPP and post CR may make that temporarily volatile. Which in itself will provide some opportunities for the traders.


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## condog (9 April 2011)

EGM this week, but not sure about the rules for modifying a motion so close to the EGM. ie rules about mandatory notification time lines. 

Hopefully it will go to the vote and full SPP subscription will be granted.


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## Agentm (12 April 2011)

ASX Release

12 April 2011

*FEBRUARY PLACEMENT AND SHARE PURCHASE PLAN RAISE $39.4M*


Texon Petroleum Ltd advises that the Share Purchase Plan (SPP) which was announced on 4 March and closed on 6 April has raised $23.7m. Shareholders applied for 36.5m shares at an issue price of 65 cents which was discounted by 14.7% to the average of the closing prices of Texon’s shares over the last five trading days before the announcement made on 23 February 2011. The offer was underwritten by RBS Morgans up to $10.5m.

Directors were pleased with the support received from shareholders which represented a take-up by 74% of the Company’s shareholders. In view of the opportunities available to the Company, the Directors resolved to accept all shareholder applications raising significantly more than the underwritten amount.
The Company has now raised $39.4m (before costs) including the placement of 24.2 million shares to sophisticated and institutional investors in February at 65 cents per share. These funds will allow the Company to fund its 2011 work program as outlined in the SPP offer document. The principal projects for the rest of 2011 are:

•The third and fourth Eagle Ford wells;

• Four (4) more Leighton Olmos production wells;

• Two (2) Wilcox oil wells;

• A well to test the Scarborough gas / liquids prospect;

• A well to test the Coolangatta gas / liquids prospect;

• A project to strengthen the Company’s mapping capability to substantially increase the output of prospects.


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## condog (12 April 2011)

*In view of the opportunities available to the Company, the Directors resolved to accept all shareholder applications raising significantly more than the underwritten amount.*

Got our full allocations, which is sure to be very popular.  Finally some mangement that actually appreciate thier private retail shareholders. What a breath of fresh air.


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## albaby (12 April 2011)

condog,forgive me if this is a stupid question but the ann seems to be saying that they are accepting all the applications which roughly equates to 23000 shares,am I missing something?Thanks al.


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## Magic Man (12 April 2011)

condog said:


> *In view of the opportunities available to the Company, the Directors resolved to accept all shareholder applications raising significantly more than the underwritten amount.*
> 
> Got our full allocations, which is sure to be very popular.  Finally some mangement that actually appreciate thier private retail shareholders. What a breath of fresh air.




TXN has dropped this morning on this news. People trying to sell there stock. It it got back to 80 cents i might have another dabble... Its gonna be a good 3 months.


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## KurwaJegoMac (12 April 2011)

albaby said:


> condog,forgive me if this is a stupid question but the ann seems to be saying that they are accepting all the applications which roughly equates to 23000 shares,am I missing something?Thanks al.




That's correct. The board has accepted all applications so you will receive the 23,000 shares (Provided you took up the full offer of $15,000 - you will obviously get less shares if you didn't pay as much)


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## albaby (12 April 2011)

thanks KJW.I"ll get 20000 as I only had $13k to spare,by gee your quick on that edit button condog,many thanks to you and agent for sharing your knowledge and research.al


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## Agentm (12 April 2011)

albaby said:


> thanks KJW.I"ll get 20000 as I only had $13k to spare,by gee your quick on that edit button condog,many thanks to you and agent for sharing your knowledge and research.al





i know a few whom are adding a lot today in anticipation..

albaby

happy to post my research.. will be out there next week in texas and intend to look over all the texon efs oil fields..

i know there will be an update on the agm from those whom attended today also

plenty of news to come


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## boff (12 April 2011)

Sorry for asking what feels like a dumb question, but how do I shift the shares I just got through the SPP into my CMC trading account?


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## KurwaJegoMac (12 April 2011)

boff said:


> Sorry for asking what feels like a dumb question, but how do I shift the shares I just got through the SPP into my CMC trading account?




The shares haven't been allotted yet yet so you cannot shift them into your account (as you don't own them yet). All that's happened today is that the board has approved all applicants requesting to participate in the SPP.

On Wednesday 13th April the shares are allotted to each applicant (meaning that's the day you will receive the shares). It should come automatically through to the broker under which you made your original TXN purchase. Either that you can use the statement you will receive showing your holdings - give these details to your broker and they'll make the necessary updates.


----------



## philly (12 April 2011)

condog said:


> I suggest all holder email
> texon.info@texonpetroleum.com.au
> 
> and ask firmly that the SPP be delivered in full.
> ...






philly said:


> Hi Condog,
> email sent.
> Come on all ASF TXN holders join in  we may be able to change their mind.
> Good luck to all holders






condog said:


> *In view of the opportunities available to the Company, the Directors resolved to accept all shareholder applications raising significantly more than the underwritten amount.*
> 
> Got our full allocations, which is sure to be very popular.  Finally some mangement that actually appreciate thier private retail shareholders. What a breath of fresh air.




All credit to you on this one Condog. I took your advice and sent an email.  I had nothing to lose and was happy just to get some at 0.65. Now I got all I wanted. I am very very happy Well done management. Condog you are a LEGEND !!


----------



## Agentm (12 April 2011)

from riche  whom posted this on another forum

I went to the egm, listened to John Armstrong's presentation and had  quite a good conversation with John, Des Olling (corporate secretary)  and Chris Brown (RBS analyst).

The primary questions were:
1) what are the intentions for the extra cash?
2) Are any more capital raisings forseeable?  &
2) why haven't the results of the second EFS been released yet?

The  first - was answered largely by the presentation that was announced to  the ASX this morning. John went through that in detail - and while it  was interesting he didn't add much that wasn't actually in the  announcement. Oh .. except that Scarborough is not currently built into  any of the production budgets for later this year. ie if they hit what  they think they're going to = nothing but upside.

The second -  John answered (and I paraphrase) - Its not forseeable for normal  business but if a land owner with 1/3/5000 acres of nearby  Wilcox/Olmos/EFS leases came to them then they'd have to consider it to  buy the leases.

And thirdly - the one everyone wants to know ....  where is the IPR from the Teal EFS? John answered that "a compressor  needs to be re-attached but that the well is currently flowing" and that  Dave thinks that results will be issued before the end of the week. He  added that the results appear comparable to the first one with a similar  setup.

I didn't get the chance to push on the comment about the  compressor and ask for more details but he sounded very relaxed about  it.

I wondered if they're going to line up those results with the  release of the new shares which from memory hit the market on the 14th.


----------



## condog (12 April 2011)

I did not attend but i also asked about IPR for teal. I asked early last week and was told they would be expecting to publish a result this week. My guess is they will want it to clean up a bit, and with the compressor delay, it imo will eb later in the week, if not bumped to early next week. 

I think theyd be keen to get the IPR out if its good prior to the 14th, to help stop any unloading by profit takers. IPR's arent able to be brought forward, but you could bet, if its available they will want it out prior to or on the 14th.

I find it commical that people are unloading today, when if we get a good IP figure in the next few days to week this thing imo would need to jump well over the dollar mark, up to 1.25 or 130's imo if its a good flow. 

Brokers will almost certainly upgrade from the 1.64 RBS figure if its good as well.


----------



## geelongfan (12 April 2011)

what are your guys opinions on goldman sachs statement that essentially it's time to lock-in profits from oil stocks as the market is set to reverse? i'm assuming that this is the reason the majority of oil stocks are down quite significantly today.. anyway, i'm seeing this as a buying opportunity

http://www.reuters.com/article/2011...ldman-recommendation-co-idUSTRE73A7ZL20110411


with companies like txn i think most of their predictions have been with oil @ 100 usd/barrel (haven't got time to go through past reports right now).. so it shouldn't really affect us anyway.. coupled with the fact that the company has largely been flying under the radar i still believe it's trading at a discount as to what it should be either way..


----------



## geelongfan (12 April 2011)

ugh i meant far less than usd 100/barrel


----------



## condog (12 April 2011)

Agentm said:


> And thirdly - the one everyone wants to know ....  where is the IPR from the Teal EFS? John answered that "a compressor  needs to be re-attached but that the well is currently flowing" and that  Dave thinks that results will be issued before the end of the week. He  added that the results appear comparable to the first one with a similar  setup.




This is not a smart move. Jon should not have disclosed that. Riche should not be publicising it. And it should not be being republished. Its as clear a breach of disclosure regs as i have ever seen. I just hope like hell that ASIC and ASX dont get hold of this info.


----------



## Agentm (12 April 2011)

rule of thumb with goldman sachs.. what ever they recommend.. do the opposite..

lol

if obama releases the SPR, then it will be a drop in the WTI oil price

keep in mind the cushing glut is keeping WTI a lot lower than the $125 for brent

no one knows what the trigger price is for the SPR to be released by obama..

can obama fight the oil prices down for ever? not sure.. but it appears the sooner the middle east calms down the better it will be for brent and crude for obama's sake

all imho and dyor


----------



## Sdajii (12 April 2011)

Agentm said:


> rule of thumb with goldman sachs.. what ever they recommend.. do the opposite..
> 
> lol




I read it and thought exactly the same thing. If Goldman Sachs is saying it's good to lock in profit it's probably because they're wanting to buy, and while they may not be honest and certainly not altruistic, they do know what they're talking about.


----------



## estseon (12 April 2011)

Sdajii said:


> I read it and thought exactly the same thing. If Goldman Sachs is saying it's good to lock in profit it's probably because they're wanting to buy, and while they may not be honest and certainly not altruistic, they do know what they're talking about.




My first thought was that they might be selling short.

re the compressor - they need that to bump up the gas pressure to sales line pressure. Happily, much of our production ends up in barrels. Though wellhead pressure is high, volume shrinks hugely when vapour condenses into liquid. A barrel contains about 5.6 cu ft of liquid and has the energy equivalence of 6,000 cfg. You can get a feel for the volume shrinkage from that. Hence the pressure drop.


----------



## condog (12 April 2011)

estseon said:


> My first thought was that they might be selling short.
> 
> re the compressor - they need that to bump up the gas pressure to sales line pressure. Happily, much of our production ends up in barrels. Though wellhead pressure is high, volume shrinks hugely when vapour condenses into liquid. A barrel contains about 5.6 cu ft of liquid and has the energy equivalence of 6,000 cfg. You can get a feel for the volume shrinkage from that. Hence the pressure drop.




Cheers esteon for your great explanation. Shouldnt take long to get that compressor online and flow to sales. Hopefully in next 48 hrs.


----------



## Miner (12 April 2011)

Agentm said:


> rule of thumb with goldman sachs.. what ever they recommend.. do the opposite..
> 
> lol
> 
> ...




First of all I am happy to get full $15K to be alloted in TXN
Secondly thanks to you and Condog for lovely postings
Thirdly, fully agree - Do the opposite what Goldman Sachs. They were ridiculous when GFC came. Their credibility is questionable. I will not nor never rely on GS recommendations to buy or sell


----------



## Ramblin Round (13 April 2011)

IMHO and do your own research, I have yet to meet a person from Goldman Sachs who has personally waited at a stoplight behind a frac fleet somebody just paid an extra 3-4 million cash for to be there faster. They know how to count beans and trade stocks but chances are they can't even pronounce Eagle Ford correctly. This play is huge and unless you see it with your own eyes, I find it hard to explain myself. It's a friggin boom down here.

ANYthing to do with this play makes money. Good luck to all holders.

BTW, don't say "EAGLE FORD" like two formal words like a yankee investor.........in Texas it's the "Eagleferd" play with the phonetic emphasis on the word _Eagle_ while using phonetical _ferd _on the downbreath.  

_*"Eagleferd shale"*_.............it should just roll off your tongue.


----------



## condog (13 April 2011)

I emailed Texon yesterday afternoon about 3pm, indicating i thought they where in breach of asx disclosure, with what they told Riche at the EGM in regards to equivelent flows.. They responded with an announcment thismorning which is a good thing. Clarrifies the situation for all equally asap. thumbs up to managment willing to listen and respond to situations.


*ASX Release
13 April 2011
SECOND EAGLE FORD WELL TEST PROCEEDING*The test of Texon’s second Eagle Ford well is proceeding satisfactorily with the well flowing oil and gas and water (probably frac fluid). *The oil and gas rates are in line with Texon’s first Eagle Ford well at this stage of the test.*We expect to be able to announce an initial production rate in the next couple of days.
Please refer to Texon’s website for announcements by the Company: www.texonpetroleum.com.au


----------



## frankblack (13 April 2011)

condog said:


> This is not a smart move. Jon should not have disclosed that. Riche should not be publicising it. And it should not be being republished. Its as clear a breach of disclosure regs as i have ever seen. I just hope like hell that ASIC and ASX dont get hold of this info.




Spot on again condog. Hope todays announcement can right the wrongs. Might have been some panic at TXN last night?

Good luck to all who hold.


----------



## condog (13 April 2011)

Theres the post SPP / CR selling appearing, but i would think this mornings confirmation of good flows will excite some sideline candidates to be topping up and or jumping or board.

Im expecting a new high of at least 1.20 and up around 1.30 on the back of these results. When the first well was confirmed imo it raised the bar from 60 odd cents to 90 odd cents. I think the second well to a lot of people will be more of a confidence booster, as in terms of earnings and quality of operator and acerage it somewhat derisks imo.

Id also expect RBS to be upgrading on the back of the IP's when they come in and the new plan thats fully funded.


----------



## Agentm (13 April 2011)

petrohawks latest hawkville results in the mcmullen lasalle counties is worth looking at

the hiway frac that they are using are demonstrating some nice improvements


----------



## Agentm (13 April 2011)

just received a email request from riche to post this up

to clarify... comments made are from riche and not mine


*******
[FONT=&quot]1. [/FONT][FONT=&quot]This is not a smart move. Jon should not have disclosed that. Riche should not be publicising it. And it should not be being republished. Its as clear a breach of disclosure regs as i have ever seen. I just hope like hell that ASIC and ASX dont get hold of this info. [/FONT]

Condog – just to clarify. One of the RBS employees asked the question about the Teal EFS in the middle of Johns presentation and he answered it openly to all that were present. (ie it was not a private comment/conversation). 

As for publishing it ... I’ll take that on the chin. It was highly relevant and I know a lot of people are interested in the results. I’d do it again rather than have the instos sit on it. Say thanks and we’ll call it even

Riche


----------



## condog (13 April 2011)

Agentm said:


> just received a email request from riche to post this up
> 
> to clarify... comments made are from riche and not mine
> 
> ...




Riche no hard feelings, but as i said, Jon should not have said it. Riches post indicated he had spoken and asked the question privately. Its been corrected by mgmnt and i think the haste of mgmts correction indicates they knew they had breached the disclosure regs. The fact this mornings announcment is earmarked as price sensitive also indicates that information should definitely not have been given out in anything other then a published asx release.


----------



## geelongfan (13 April 2011)

condog said:


> Riche no hard feelings, but as i said, Jon should not have said it. Riches post indicated he had spoken and asked the question privately. Its been corrected by mgmnt and i think the haste of mgmts correction indicates they knew they had breached the disclosure regs. The fact this mornings announcment is earmarked as price sensitive also indicates that information should definitely not have been given out in anything other then a published asx release.




i agree with condog.. although txn's management solved the issue this morning, sometimes being too honest (as john was by answering the question) can come back to haunt you.. the bottom line is you can't release price sensitive information (or any new information) to individuals before the market has been informed. we all know what that can lead to.. 

john should have released the announcement before the EGM.. and then he could have discussed it at will.. i'm sure he will keep that in mind next time


----------



## geelongfan (13 April 2011)

also. so i understand. does it make a difference if john made that comment privately (i.e. someone came up and asked) vs. he made the comment to the entire group listening to the presentation.. in my mind both would be in the wrong as an announcement would be required first??


----------



## Magic Man (13 April 2011)

When will we see the alloted shares we paid for in the SPP in our portfolios?

Thanks


----------



## nioka (13 April 2011)

Magic Man said:


> When will we see the alloted shares we paid for in the SPP in our portfolios?
> 
> Thanks




They should be there now. Mine are. Some brokers are lax. Ring yours and complain.


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## condog (13 April 2011)

Magic Man said:


> When will we see the alloted shares we paid for in the SPP in our portfolios?
> 
> Thanks




Im with Commsec

I assume they will be there tommorrow. 

Not that it matters much.


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## Miner (13 April 2011)

condog said:


> Im with Commsec
> 
> I assume they will be there tommorrow.
> 
> Not that it matters much.




I am with Commsec too and have not seen the allotment on my portfolio.

But I am not going to sell them until they reach $1.20 whenever that happens so I am not worried not to see them in my portfolio


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## Ramblin Round (14 April 2011)

I'm not sure that the comment should be deemed out of place since it was made in a public forum, but I'll agree to the sensitivity of the market to such things. And I'll also agree to the weight of a presentation and what CEO comments can do to investors. I hope everyone learns from this.

Example......I was investing with another small cap company a couple of years ago. Eagerly awaiting the CEO to speak of what I had speculated would be a successful presentation based on my analysis of the slides, the CEO totall flubbed it with his speech. He kept commenting on "thanks to dumb luck" on hitting some high flowing wells in Gonzales County. Then again "thanks to dumb luck once more" and so on and so forth. I _think_ he was trying to humble himself but in doing so he was killing the confidence of his investors, not to mention totally insulting his team of geologists and employees who busted their asses to get them those locations. I literally watched his stocks go down during the presentation.

Neither here nor there in this situation, I'm just sharing some of the thoughts of an investor. That's good that Texon made the move to clarify today.


----------



## AngusSmart (14 April 2011)

So efffin pissssed.

banks made a stuff up and only given me 1500.. and not 15000 worth.. i double checked the paperwork and it surely did say 15,000 when i handed the bpay papers to her..

since not coming from my bank account i wasnt able to watch it to see how much was deducted..

FML..


----------



## condog (14 April 2011)

Im with comsec

full allotment is showing in account this morning as 23076 shares

Angus , i sent you an email, serve a claim on the bank and go to the bank ombudsman if they dont come good. Rest assured if you stuffed up and cost them $5000, theyde be persuing you. 

Either buy on market and serve a claim or serve a claim for the lost profit. In either case put in a complaint today.


----------



## geelongfan (14 April 2011)

AngusSmart said:


> So efffin pissssed.
> 
> banks made a stuff up and only given me 1500.. and not 15000 worth.. i double checked the paperwork and it surely did say 15,000 when i handed the bpay papers to her..
> 
> ...





also, i thought you could only buy from 2k to 15k in 1k increments? so i'm not even sure how you get 1500 worth.. if the bank stuffed up take them to task as condog mentioned


----------



## AngusSmart (14 April 2011)

geelongfan said:


> also, i thought you could only buy from 2k to 15k in 1k increments? so i'm not even sure how you get 1500 worth.. if the bank stuffed up take them to task as condog mentioned






My thoughts exactly.. but then since they decided to take the spp in full perhaps the 1500 was accepted..

on the case at the moment  hopefully things turn out the way they should of..


----------



## albaby (14 April 2011)

Magic Man said:


> TXN has dropped this morning on this news. People trying to sell there stock. It it got back to 80 cents i might have another dabble... Its gonna be a good 3 months.




magic,when I read that I thought you were joking,I have a lot to learn,looks to have bottomed at 80.5.Did you top up?


----------



## PinguPingu (14 April 2011)

I was looking to buy in at the low 70's near the end of march, only to just miss the boat and watch it shoot sky high to 96  , but I'm happy I waited for some SPP sell off and market wobblies to have bought in today at 81c


----------



## Magic Man (14 April 2011)

albaby said:


> magic,when I read that I thought you were joking,I have a lot to learn,looks to have bottomed at 80.5.Did you top up?




No reaper man. i was watching the stock earlier but had a sleep this afternoon and missed the low. However imnot worried. I have stock at 77cents and also at 65 due to the SPP. I see the buying is back up and the selling is dropping off slightly. i have toped up on stocks before with not much success to date. If i can get in around 83 0r 84 tomorrow i might settle for that. Nice work on getting in today!


----------



## shanti (14 April 2011)

There was a segment on french news on SBS today referred to as Eldorado in Pensylvania, US. Farmers were extatic with huge shale gas discoveries on their land.  Extasy turned into horror when hydraulic fraccing caused major contamination. Cows died in the paddocks and water supplies got poisoned. One farmer demonstrated the situation by striking a lighter to running tap water in his kitchen which cought on fire. The blooming tap water was aflame.  (Imagine if there was a fire and they try to extinguish it with that water supply). The reporter filmed those cow corpses lying around in the paddocks.
I didn't catch the name of Company or the Operator. As AUT, SEA, EKA and TXN holder I'm very grateful for their skilfull Operators.
__________________________________________________________________________

Favourite quote    My religion is very simple, my religion is kindness.
                                               The Dalai Lama


----------



## frankblack (14 April 2011)

Yes shanti,

There is a whole movie about it. 
I believe it is called Gasland.
They were probably shots from the film.

Cheers


----------



## zzaaxxss3401 (14 April 2011)

shanti said:


> There was a segment on french news on SBS today referred to as Eldorado in Pensylvania, US. Farmers were extatic with huge shale gas discoveries on their land.  Extasy turned into horror when hydraulic fraccing caused major contamination.



Have you watched "Gas Land"?


----------



## estseon (14 April 2011)

Our formations are thousands of feet lower than the aquifers.

See what TRRC say about an "incident" recently investigated (using science, not journalistic sensation)

http://www.rrc.state.tx.us/pressreleases/2011/032211.php


----------



## shanti (14 April 2011)

zzaaxxss3401 said:


> Have you watched "Gas Land"?




No, never heard of it, in fact all I've known is success from the Co's I hold. Lucky to be on the winners. Is it on DVD?


----------



## Ramblin Round (14 April 2011)

shanti be careful not to get caught up in the hype of pursuasive media. We are seeing some of that around here locally and it will probably get worse. esteon is correct......several thousands of feet lower and people doing that don't understand drilling. The RRC are doing their job to oversee everything. I am a rancher and landowner myself and I have little to no concerns on this topic. Oil companies are very sensitive to these issues for landowners. Don't believe everthing you read/see because those landowners either 1. just have sour grapes or 2. don't understand economics.


----------



## rockrolla (14 April 2011)

Evening

My first post with a new handle, bought in on txn from the vv recommendation in December, and again on the SPP .  .  said to self "bet it tanks as the SPP goes live" but it held a good ground (IE, didnt go back to 65) and we still have the second well ann to come.

tomorrow is a good day


----------



## ColB (15 April 2011)

rockrolla said:


> Evening
> 
> My first post with a new handle, bought in on txn from the vv recommendation in December, and again on the SPP .  .  said to self "bet it tanks as the SPP goes live" but it held a good ground (IE, didnt go back to 65) and we still have the *second well ann to come.*
> 
> tomorrow is a good day




*SECOND EAGLE FORD WELL - 1,105 BOPD*  ASX Release 15 April 2011

Texon advises that its second Eagle Ford well, Teal Ranch EFS #1H, has flowed 1,228 boepd (1) representing 1,105 bpd of light sweet crude oil and 736 mcfpd of gas with a flowing tubing pressure of 2086 psi through a 18/64” choke. Some of the frac fluid is also still being recovered.

Texon’s working interest in the well is 100%. Texon’s beneficial interest (NRI) in the production is 75% or some 921 boepd of the above production.

Texon has installed oil and gas production facilities at the Teal well location. The facilities include oil and gas separation equipment, oil tanks, measurement systems and connections to gas pipelines. As a result, the Teal well has already been connected to these facilities so that oil and gas being produced is now part of Texon’s revenue stream..."

Source: http://imagesignal.comsec.com.au/asxdata/20110415/pdf/01171513.pdf


----------



## Ramblin Round (15 April 2011)

This is an immense success for Texon in my opinion. To me it demonstrates that Texon is set to prosper. Many small caps won't/can't even get connected on the pipelines even after they are set to produce. (I know of some that still have to truck *all* their own oil to sales). Texon not only produces, but are increasing their revenue stream and have the professional relationships in place in Texas that will allow them to continue their growth. 

I proudly hold Texon, and will continue to acquire. Good job to all involved !!  :aus:


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## condog (15 April 2011)

IPR flows 1200 beopd + , this is fantastic news as it pretty much derisks the project with revenue from two successful wells now.


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## AngusSmart (15 April 2011)

shanti said:


> No, never heard of it, in fact all I've known is success from the Co's I hold. Lucky to be on the winners. Is it on DVD?




http://extratorrent.com/torrent_download/2260329/GasLand.2010.HDTV.XviD-SYS.torrent

if your familiar with torrents.

you need a program like Utorrent to download this.

I swear i better get this $13500 more shares this bank is owing me!! 1200bopd! it will drop like the first but still impressive.


----------



## poverty (15 April 2011)

In today at 88cents.  Let it flow.


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## condog (15 April 2011)

Guys i wouldnt panic, imo , it will rise now as sellers dry up at each level. I could be totally wrong, but i  anticipate a good surge towards 1.20+ or 1.30 plus and some consolidation. The fact they now have a second well producing at commercial rates is going to attract re-valuations and buyers. 

ITs now worth the risk. Compare performance now to the target in the preso Agent posted. They are imo now approx 6-12 months ahead of thier boe projections, once these other wells come in in coming months.

As many of you know Agent and i dont always see eye to eye, but credit where its due, his confidence in TXN is beginning imo to seem justified. They are looking much like the next AUT. I wouldnt sell AUT to buy TXN, but i shore would sell many others to buy TXN on the back of todays news.

I will be waiting for the 90 day flows on Tyler and 30 days on Teal, i thonk that will be the buying trigger for many.


----------



## suhm (15 April 2011)

I'm new to these EFS plays but it seemed like the IP was lower with a larger choke size for their second well, I've been having a lot of seller's regret recently offloading positions though.


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## Agentm (15 April 2011)

suhm said:


> I'm new to these EFS plays but it seemed like the IP was lower with a larger choke size for their second well, I've been having a lot of seller's regret recently offloading positions though.




suhm

the well is offloading on what ever choke they like, they can change it daily if they wish

the well casing they have in the well will most likely be a 5 1/2 inch

later it will have a production liner put in, maybe at 60 - 90 days in

the well is doing fine.. brilliant imho


----------



## Miner (15 April 2011)

condog said:


> Guys i wouldnt panic, imo , it will rise now as sellers dry up at each level. I could be totally wrong, but i  anticipate a good surge towards 1.20+ or 1.30 plus and some consolidation. The fact they now have a second well producing at commercial rates is going to attract re-valuations and buyers.
> 
> ITs now worth the risk. Compare performance now to the target in the preso Agent posted. They are imo now approx 6-12 months ahead of thier boe projections, once these other wells come in in coming months.
> 
> ...




Hi Condog (and Agentm)

thanks again to you et. al (and me ) for not being in rush to sell TXN after it gets allotted.

I am writing to complement Condog for saying that you and Agentm did not see eye to eye. I have been following both of your postings along with some others in different threads.
I think both of you have always been convincing with figures, data and facts. So I have never felt that you were not seeing eye to eye. I felt rivalry between Saint and Brisbane are always healthy for spectators - so you two fall in that category. I am taking lot of interest in O & G area - at least trying to understand the definitions and putting my hard earned money on TXN (like i did in AUT and EKA) .


Disclaimer : Do hold TXN, none of you paid me to do this commendation  and do not support either of the two footy teams I mentioned


----------



## Assasin (16 April 2011)

Are you telling me Agent is a Saints supporter?- thats it.


----------



## poverty (18 April 2011)

Announcement out - all is fine and on schedule.  Price goes down.


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## rcm617 (18 April 2011)

Decided to take profits this morning. 
If you take off the flow of the second eagle ford well and the two latest Olmos wells from the reported daily production only leaves 338 boe per day from the first EFS well plus the remaining Olmos wells.
I realise the two Olmos wells will have declined in the two weeks since update, but still leaves me worried about the amount of decline in the first EFS well.


----------



## Assasin (18 April 2011)

rcm617 said:


> Decided to take profits this morning.
> If you take off the flow of the second eagle ford well and the two latest Olmos wells from the reported daily production only leaves 338 boe per day from the first EFS well plus the remaining Olmos wells.
> I realise the two Olmos wells will have declined in the two weeks since update, but still leaves me worried about the amount of decline in the first EFS well.




Thats a very interesting move and reasoning. Would you mind telling us what your shifting your money into? Understand if you don't.
Cheers.


----------



## geelongfan (18 April 2011)

rcm617 said:


> Decided to take profits this morning.
> If you take off the flow of the second eagle ford well and the two latest Olmos wells from the reported daily production only leaves 338 boe per day from the first EFS well plus the remaining Olmos wells.
> I realise the two Olmos wells will have declined in the two weeks since update, but still leaves me worried about the amount of decline in the first EFS well.




interesting.. what sort of decline were you expecting for the first EFS well? if it's initially 1200 boepd, what declines would be good and bad to the time we are at now?


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## rcm617 (18 April 2011)

Just my decision for my own portfolio, I've been in this for over a year and trebled my money.  Always to easy to fall in love with your stock, I think it still has plenty of potential, including all its other fields, but I'm seriously overweight in oil stock. 
When you look at AUT's early wells they were still producing an average of 500boe per day at the four month stage even when you convert the gas at 12 to 1 to more evenly align pricing.
The thing that worried me was that they included the third Olmos well in the 2116 boe, so as I said, must be serious declines either in the Olmos wells put online 14 days ago or in the first EFS well or very little production from the third Olmos well.
I'm no expert so happy to have others shoot me down in flames.


----------



## Wombus (18 April 2011)

rcm617 said:


> Just my decision for my own portfolio, I've been in this for over a year and trebled my money.  Always to easy to fall in love with your stock, I think it still has plenty of potential, including all its other fields, but I'm seriously overweight in oil stock.
> When you look at AUT's early wells they were still producing an average of 500boe per day at the four month stage even when you convert the gas at 12 to 1 to more evenly align pricing.
> The thing that worried me was that they included the third Olmos well in the 2116 boe, so as I said, must be serious declines either in the Olmos wells put online 14 days ago or in the first EFS well or very little production from the third Olmos well.
> I'm no expert so happy to have others shoot me down in flames.




I'm no expert either, but seeing the current production announcement is about 250 boepd (and 200 bopd) better than the projected Q2 production figures from TXN presentations I'd say that the declines are nothing to worry about, if anything they are better than projected. Happy to keep holding while management meet or exceed their projections


----------



## Agentm (18 April 2011)

Miner said:


> Hi Condog (and Agentm)
> 
> thanks again to you et. al (and me ) for not being in rush to sell TXN after it gets allotted.
> 
> ...




miner

dont give a rats clakker

leaving for texas day after tomorrow and couldnt be happier with my oil investments

your contribution to flaming is pretty obvious.. you just go down in my estimation..

condog bringing up old memories.. means he cant move on,, his big deal not mine

means sweet nothing to me.. i invest as b4


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## Magic Man (20 April 2011)

The performance of this stock today has been pretty disapointing


----------



## condog (20 April 2011)

Agent it was meant as a positive.

And i think Miners post was too.


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## jancha (21 April 2011)

Some large cross trades at over 1mill each @ 80c.
Wonder if Agentm has something to do them now that he's over in good ol Texas or is he only over there getting oiled up for a sun tanning?


----------



## estseon (23 April 2011)

The directors have a stack of expiring options with almost 8m in profit at current prices. Most will have to be sold unless they have substantial cash resources.


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## Agentm (25 April 2011)

currently in karnes county.. the place is effectively jammed with rigs and the region is stretched to the max with every resource at its capacity

no one can say that the there will be any chance of the current pipelines and processing plants will ever be able to meet the demands these wells are delivering

all around me right now are hilcorp  and cop rigs, and its obvious that there is a distinct lack of experience in the drill crews out here.. i know of one rig where the drillers had less than 6 hours experience on a rig..

you walk down the street and you hear people talk about how impossible it is to get any experienced welders or fitters or anyone really.

i have been to a lot of drill sites where the efs is producing pretty poorly, it makes you wonder what the cause is..

have to say i am impressed with conoco, they do things very well..  its not so obvious to me how these acres can be held by the larger land grab players, even cop.. and the smaller players are far more successful in holding out acres on production.

should be finished here by tomorrow and off to other counties. think i may pass by mcmullen as soon as i have some time spare

you hear of rumous of other plays out here in texas which may be pretty exciting. so more research to be done by me i think


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## Miner (26 April 2011)

Agentm said:


> currently in karnes county.. the place is effectively jammed with rigs and the region is stretched to the max with every resource at its capacity
> 
> no one can say that the there will be any chance of the current pipelines and processing plants will ever be able to meet the demands these wells are delivering
> 
> ...





I thought this is a thread for TXN and not for a poster's travel diary. Could not see any reference to TXN  

I am confused


----------



## Agentm (26 April 2011)

just put a tou violation on the post miner..

apologies for mentioning the efs and karnes county.. lol

if the moderators like, it can be removed.. that will clear up your confusion for you.

but for your information, karnes county, live oak and dewitt as well as mcmullen and lasalle and beyond to the mexico border is a long belt of efs activity

a bit to the east of here is the colorado county target of texon called coolangatta.. and to the south west is duval county where the massive scarborough wilcox target sits. i have researched the coolangatta target somewhat in the last month, and if anyone does the same they will see what i have seen close by that conoco and i believe exxon have on production.

i will be travelling pretty much exclusively in those counties in the coming days.. 

miner, as you know the first time texon became aware of the wilcox wells close by to the mcmullen acreages was from my posts here on this forum.  but i do believe they are aware of the active wilcox targets in colorado, and i think the play is rated about 70% in my estimation

the scarborough wilcox target is worth $2 to the share, and it one i have a huge interest in.. also the 2 wilcox wells in the mcmullen acreages. if they can get those wells to come on, and the wilcox is good, texon will be a $2 share in no time

there are plenty of considerations you need to take on board if your taking an exclusive stake in the efs only.. there are plenty of restrictions and issues that are being talked about all the time here.. its not as easy as one thinks to convert a greenfield play up into a fully held out and play within the timeframe that the leases are being signed atm..

i am real happy texon is exploring other plays and regions out of the hot zone as well as being active in securing acreages in mcmullen efs to expand into with ease

lots to consider if your an efs investor.. plenty of ways you can screw a jvp partner or choke back production or indeed just not produce at all with no pipeline availability or oil delivery at capacity.. not a rosy picture  for a lot out here imho.. some may be seeing their acreages go to into other folks hands,, there is no iron fisted guarantee here at all!!!  and disbelieve me at your peril....

i really like texons approach, dave mason has it well planned.. outstanding really. being an operator will deliver maximum rate of return and impose no restrictions or create no issues with capital raisings that other farm in are having

when your on the ground here, you can see what it really is, how it works, and how bad one way of exposing yourself vs  how amazingly good it is to be an operator in the efs at this stage of its development with all the bottlenecks currently in place..

if some of the things i am hearing happen, and if these other plays i hear about commence,, then i see huge issues and am real real happy to be in with texon..

cheers...


----------



## nioka (26 April 2011)

Miner said:


> I thought this is a thread for TXN and not for a poster's travel diary. Could not see any reference to TXN
> 
> I am confused




I, for one, am not confused. I see it relating to TXN and also to EKA and AUT. I'm happy for it on be on the TXN threads. I'm interested in knowing what is happening there. Keep up the posts Agent. Wish i was there.


----------



## geelongfan (26 April 2011)

fantastic posts agent as always. very informative. have a great trip and try not to pick up too many american chicks with that aussie stock knowledge


----------



## Agentm (26 April 2011)

nioka said:


> I, for one, am not confused. I see it relating to TXN and also to EKA and AUT. I'm happy for it on be on the TXN threads. I'm interested in knowing what is happening there. Keep up the posts Agent. Wish i was there.




nice to hear a positive response.. the efs is a huge play but it has to be carefully developed. and there is no doubt in my mind after seeing how its going right here, that texon as a operator is an advantage, a dynamic that will be a huge, and i mean a HUGE advantage to them.





geelongfan said:


> fantastic posts agent as always. very informative. have a great trip and try not to pick up too many american chicks with that aussie stock knowledge




the local bars here, are like nothin you would ever see in aus.. and they are real eye openers.. never thought i would be drinking with the folk i have been, and they are from ever type of background you can imagine.. great people, warm and welcoming, very different to investors in this share on this forum.. but as for the chicks.. well they are as nice as anywhere, good honest and hard working girls.. great to have a talk to.. but i would not entertain anything other than buy them a drink and have a converation with them..lol


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## geelongfan (26 April 2011)

Agentm said:


> the local bars here, are like nothin you would ever see in aus.. and they are real eye openers.. never thought i would be drinking with the folk i have been, and they are from ever type of background you can imagine.. great people, warm and welcoming, very different to investors in this share on this forum.. but as for the chicks.. well they are as nice as anywhere, good honest and hard working girls.. great to have a talk to.. but i would not entertain anything other than buy them a drink and have a converation with them..lol




haha. i actually just returned to aus a few months back after spending the last three years going to university in the usa. was definitely an eye opener.. have a few friends from dallas and houston.. anyways, i'm getting a bit off topic now but have a blast mate!! you earned it for sure!


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## estseon (26 April 2011)

Hi agent

any further info on the technical difficulties of producing from the EFS would be welcome (regardless of which of the counties).

Is there any talk of drilling the overlaying chalk? You recall that COP fractured both horizons in the Marlene Olsen vertical and Kowalik was originally drilled in the chalk. Weston has been producing from the chalk for about 12 months.


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## Miner (26 April 2011)

Agentm said:


> just put a tou violation on the post miner..
> 
> apologies for mentioning the efs and karnes county.. lol
> 
> ...





thanks Agentm for very informative posting and clearing my confusion.

Yes I do understand the correlation of your previous posting and TXN factor.

Please keep the good work up for all of us (specially I being a newbie in oil and gas areas)

Thanks to other posters too clearing my confusion.


Cheers


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## Magic Man (27 April 2011)

The slide on this stock has been disappointing. Can we expect the stock to slide all the way back down to 0.65??


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## Assasin (27 April 2011)

Magic Man said:


> The slide on this stock has been disappointing. Can we expect the stock to slide all the way back down to 0.65??




Hi Magic,
           all the small-cap oilers copped a hit with a big stick today, ( AUT, SEA, EKA ).
  But in the case of TXN, maybe still a case of post cr blues. IMO nothing to worry about, if I had more money i'd buy. To me, TXN is just ticking every box.:


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## geelongfan (27 April 2011)

Magic Man said:


> The slide on this stock has been disappointing. Can we expect the stock to slide all the way back down to 0.65??




if it breaks through 75 cents then anything could happen.. panic sellers could go crazy

also, it may just be me but i've noticed that when the price of oil is high, oil stocks generally take a hit (as the market puts all their money under their bed).. but when materials are high (gold/silver/platinum) those stocks generally sky-rocket..

it seems like a cheaper oil price, would actually be beneficial to oil stocks. it's kind of like a catch-22


----------



## trader8888 (27 April 2011)

geelongfan said:


> if it breaks through 75 cents then anything could happen.. panic sellers could go crazy
> 
> also, it may just be me but i've noticed that when the price of oil is high, oil stocks generally take a hit (as the market puts all their money under their bed).. but when materials are high (gold/silver/platinum) those stocks generally sky-rocket..
> 
> it seems like a cheaper oil price, would actually be beneficial to oil stocks. it's kind of like a catch-22




Geelongfan

At the end of the day, the higher the price of oil the more profit your oil company makes. Just wait for quarterly and cashflow reports and watch the buyers stack up. 

I would'nt like to see oil go up any further than what it is now though that would take a huge toll on the american economy IMO, thier already complaining about gas getting near $4 a gallon.


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## Miner (29 April 2011)

Good morning all

This TXN thread looks like a bit quiet compared to other days.

Any way I am sharing a document published about Director unloading his shares.

John Armstrong sold 1.25 million shares at 80 cents. Very clever mode by a director when every one wants to buy.

I have to go back to drawing board and do my own research updated so that I can analyse why Joh sold such a significant chunk.

One thing I noticed in ASF  not exclusive related to TXN that the file uploading become very efficient and easier (Good work Joe)


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## nioka (29 April 2011)

Miner said:


> I have to go back to drawing board and do my own research updated so that I can analyse why Joh sold such a significant chunk.




I noted the other day that both he and his wife were able to take up the SPP. Not as many as he sold. Maybe they decided it was time to splurge a million bucks on new digs. I doubt that he is exiting TXN at this stage but even directors need money apart from their investment in one company. It would be interesting to know what he spent it on if it is for an alternative investment. Maybe he met up with Agent and headed for the casino to celebrate and had a bad trot.


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## geelongfan (29 April 2011)

the quarterly was just released.. bad day to release it.. with most o&g stocks taking a hammering

TXN now 5% down for the day at 75 cents..


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## Miner (29 April 2011)

When I posted my last one in the morning I noticed the Quarterly report was published, another director sold out 3.35 milion shares at 80 cents (David Mason) whereas chose to buy only acquired 9,228 shares at 65 cents for his children.

On the same day TXN report published directors selling shares of 3.35 million (David Mason)  and 1.25 millions (John Armstrong)  begs some innocent  questions than just encashing the opportunity to make money. 

Yes, I do agree that directors invest to make money to sell on good time. I am just questioning the time line of sale, coincidence, share drop down by 5% and publishing the quarterly report - all on 29 April.  I hope Keith Neilson (the famous publisher of directors selling / buying news letter Insider Traders) would analyse this in the Hawke Eyes . 

Probably it is time for me to sit back and not to watch TXN story for a while, notwithtanding it has lot many good stories and good projects IMO.

DYOR


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## geelongfan (29 April 2011)

i think the directors were just exercising some options.. they are not going to let a great deal of cash slip through their hands for no reason.. either way, it isn't a huge portion of their holdings and the management of the company thus far is the only thing i am not even concerned about in the slightest. this is a well led and directed company that is honest and forthright IMO. just ride this bump out and we will be smooth sailing a month from now



Miner said:


> When I posted my last one in the morning I noticed the Quarterly report was published, another director sold out 3.35 milion shares at 80 cents (David Mason) whereas chose to buy only acquired 9,228 shares at 65 cents for his children.
> 
> On the same day TXN report published directors selling shares of 3.35 million (David Mason)  and 1.25 millions (John Armstrong)  begs some innocent  questions than just encashing the opportunity to make money.
> 
> ...


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## condog (29 April 2011)

Got to say i wasnt overly impressed with the quarterly. 

Market was in a bad mood, guess we will see the true reaction next week. I certainly found the AUT quarterly to be monumnetally more impressive. Lets hope some updates this quarter will sure up more confidence in TXN.


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## nioka (30 April 2011)

condog said:


> . I certainly found the AUT quarterly to be monumnetally more impressive.




The difference between the two is that AUT has those reported results already priced into its SP and some. TXN still has to get its current results priced into theirs. I see much more romm for improvement in TXN than in AUT.


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## poverty (30 April 2011)

nioka said:


> The difference between the two is that AUT has those reported results already priced into its SP and some. TXN still has to get its current results priced into theirs. I see much more romm for improvement in TXN than in AUT.




I'd like to see some improvement in both, while the dow goes up every day this Aussie market is just depressing.


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## condog (30 April 2011)

nioka said:


> The difference between the two is that AUT has those reported results already priced into its SP and some. TXN still has to get its current results priced into theirs. I see much more romm for improvement in TXN than in AUT.




 know what your saying and yes "if" TXN can produce the goods, TXN's upside is better, no doubts about it. 

But AUT is imo more certain, and looking at the dominos stacking up for sucees, they are all about to fall in perfect place for a massive re-rating imo. 

Certainty vs Risk Reward. I offloaded a heap of TXN yesterday to buy more AUT. Ive still got some TXN and HOG, but right now i see AUT getting ready for serious value adding by the companies results. results speak much louder then words, and the results are about to flood in.


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## estseon (30 April 2011)

Miner said:


> When I posted my last one in the morning I noticed the Quarterly report was published, another director sold out 3.35 milion shares at 80 cents (David Mason) whereas chose to buy only acquired 9,228 shares at 65 cents for his children.
> 
> On the same day TXN report published directors selling shares of 3.35 million (David Mason)  and 1.25 millions (John Armstrong)  begs some innocent  questions than just encashing the opportunity to make money.
> 
> ...




Miner - Do read the Company's statutory reports.

As at 31 March 2011, there were 4.7m options at 50c and 3m at 75c due to expire next Sunday. The directors have been spacing the exercise and sale - they would need A$4.6m to exercise and hold and perhaps they don't have A$4.6m in cash accounts.


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## estseon (30 April 2011)

condog said:


> know what your saying and yes "if" TXN can produce the goods, TXN's upside is better, no doubts about it.
> 
> But AUT is imo more certain, and looking at the dominos stacking up for sucees, they are all about to fall in perfect place for a massive re-rating imo.
> 
> Certainty vs Risk Reward. I offloaded a heap of TXN yesterday to buy more AUT. Ive still got some TXN and HOG, but right now i see AUT getting ready for serious value adding by the companies results. results speak much louder then words, and the results are about to flood in.




I agree that both are undervalued and I agree that AUT's development programme is far more advanced and de-risked. But TXN will be more responsive to news. I'm holding both positions. It's worth keeping in mind the EFS net acreage positions of the two companies (verses their respective market capitalisations) and also the fact that TXN is looking at the other formations.

TXN has about 1/7th the mkt cap, 1/3rd the net acreage but 1/2 the shares in issue. Both are cashed up for current drilling programmes.


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## Agentm (1 May 2011)

i look at  how people trade a share

over the  last few months the daily amount of shares shorted on AUT has been increasing, lately its about 30 to 40% of daily trades being a short. so the feeling i get is that those whom short, and they tend to be well researched,, see a huge advantage in trading aut for that reason

lol.. now its evident the txn thread has become an aut thread, with both companies being opposite in terms of risk reward and how they are traded and how that impacts a share.

we know txn is an operator and has total control of operations in term of timing and development and will be expanding into many new plays and fields, its run by what i call real oilmen, guys whom have had a lifetime of oil experience in texas. and whom are looking at shallow oil, low cost verticls, high return for investment plays which are well sourced thru  3d's at sietel.  real real clever stuff going on with texon.

they are moving office, employing more staff, gettin real busy.. i like it a lot!! 

we know aut is totally a EFS farm in, no plans of becoming an opeator and is totally locked into the planning of hilcorp. and its restrictions are of course pieline availability and oil disposal restrictions, and ability to hold out acreages. spent a lot of time in meetings yesterday discussig those issues for karnes live oak and dewitt counties. after being there physically i know where the problems are and have seen with my own eyes where it is at.

when you think of how a play suddenly becomes "the play" like the barnet shale, then all of a sudden other plays become hot!! i am researching a few very new plays, not announced by anyone and not discussed anywhere.. imho things can change in heart beat in texas and often do, rigs can go elsewhere, technology changes everything.. and i have seen it happen to the barnett and imho its unwise to believe that it cant happen or wont happen right now in texas to many of the hot plays..  to think unconventional is ok, but also think of improvements in conventional and be wise.. if those that take care of your investment are not talking about what the upside and DOWN sides are, then think of them yourself and make sure they are out of the frame. imho you should always stand by your own research.  

i dont own a single share long on AUT in my portfolio, but i am following the short situation and can see that as a nice way to go myself.. but thats based on my own research..

about 12 - 13 mill txn traded since the ssp and i have been accumulating

the overhang is thinning down somewhat. i expect it to continue for a while longer

if your trading out, all the best and thanks for the prices.. those new to the share and accumulating like many here,, lets just see how soon $2 arrives.  imho once the efs value comes into play and the wilcox happens, txn will be a different profile than today

best of luck to the sellers and buyers


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## condog (1 May 2011)

Having experts like Hilcorp doing the operations is an advantage, you said so your self multiple times when you bought into AUT  in 2010. 

They have done an excellent job and so far they have been brilliant in the recruiting of frac crews etc. The same cant be said of TXN. Look at the delay they faced waiting for thier crew. They where not an in house crew, or they wouldnt have had to wait. 

On the flip side have a look at the Hilcorp recriutment and HR team that have als sorts of staff incentives and bonuses to award and retain excellence. Their in the game for keeps and they arent doing so with fools. 

TXN hopefully will come good, and i agree with esteon on the value proposition that "may" be on offer. I just found it hard to justfy holding such a huge parcel when i was dissapointed with the quarterly, yet i nearly fell of my seat when i read the AUT quarterly with 35 wells flowing to sales by end of may. PResently theres only 25 odd. Theyre going to 5 rigs and two and a half full time frac crews.

I still hold some TXN, about a 5th of what i had, its still a decent parcel, i just assessed in the current "cold" market i wanted less risk and will wait till TXN gets some more oomph behind it. Watching with lots of interest and ready to pounce if needed. fingers crossed.


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## condog (2 May 2011)

Agent its comments like these below by you one of the reasons i dont by the constant banter against AUT for having hilcorp as its operator. Wasnt that long ago you, esteon, nioka, rambling and saf where toasting the brilliance of hilcorp and the fantastic result of getting them as operator. To me id love them to be operator of TXN. Thered be no drill delays.

Post by agentm 4711 on page 236 of ADI thread 


> looking forward to hilcorp doing its thing. i look at who they employ, who they have hired in the recent months and my research is telling me they are financing and employing and hiring along a frame work that indicates expansion,,, waiting to see the indications of that research becoming publicly announced
> 
> good luck to all holders in the coming weeks.. hilcorp express imho left the station some time ago some 400% ago.. lol... and is gaining momentum




Post by agentm 4686 on page 235 of ADI thread 


> left the station week or so ago.. but its also apparent it is gaining momentum..




Then this


Agentm said:


> saf delivers more
> 
> 
> agentm,
> Also a more comprehensive note from Mooodys which confirms the very solid nature of Hilcorp ´s debt. Seems to be a very well run company with a Houston billionaire at the helm.






Agentm said:


> the advent of a brilliant partner such as hilcorp whom are totally capable of dealing with a project this size, and with the slck water frac treatments imho *i think aut with its acreages are surely going to be temptation for many??*ops atm in the adi ami







Agentm said:


> all aboard for the sugarkane hilcorp express






Agentm said:


> i guess the clever will take something from the excellent research on hilcorp saf posted.. if you dont get it then perhaps just sit back and look out for some pretty big announcements in the near term as the show cranks up..






Agentm said:


> imho the result is exceptional. and hilcorp imho will go full steam ahead.. look out karnes county!!


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## condog (3 May 2011)

Agebt i just cant get my head around the way you completely do uturns on things you say. As clearly outlined above when you wher in AUT and ADI, you proffessed hilcorp as the best with the above and many many many more posts sayign how lucky we where to have hilcorp as operator.

Now today hilcorp has done nothing wrong and infact proven to be the excellent operator you where saying before we even knew. They havent put a foot wrong.

and then contrast that with this posted above, you say today

by Agent yesterday. 




> hey slick
> 
> 37% shorted on aut yesterday..maybe some texans are listening to me..
> 
> ...




I just dont get why you change so blatently your opinioons to reflect your stock choices. Its not a very good thing to be doing if you want people to believe what you say.

Are we to think that everything you told us last year was garbage. Or are we to believe everything your telling us today contradicts everything you told us 8 months ago. Yet for no  apparent reason.

Agent I agree with your earlier words and i think the evidence speaks louder then the rumours. In your words 







> Originally Posted by Agentm
> *the advent of a brilliant partner such as hilcorp whom are totally capable of dealing with a project this size, and with the slck water frac treatments imho i think aut with its acreages are surely going to be temptation for many*??


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## jancha (3 May 2011)

Condog i hear what your saying in regards to Agentm's turn around & completely agree. However, i also recall you yourself backing Agentm when i made i comment on Agentm being bias toward ADI management & their decisions.
Much the same is happening now the only difference is your feeling it.
I also recall Agentm back then on how he thought that EKA was the better safer company with their ability to manage & control their smaller acerages than AUT. Look where they are now.
Be interested to hear what you think about EKA?
 We all have our favourites & thats why turnaround with Agentm.


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## condog (3 May 2011)

jancha said:


> Condog i hear what your saying in regards to Agentm's turn around & completely agree. However, i also recall you yourself backing Agentm when i made i comment on Agentm being bias toward ADI management & their decisions.
> Much the same is happening now the only difference is your feeling it.
> I also recall Agentm back then on how he thought that EKA was the better safer company with their ability to manage & control their smaller acerages than AUT. Look where they are now.
> Be interested to hear what you think about EKA?
> We all have our favourites & thats why turnaround with Agentm.




Right now they are probably all good value, given the irrational beast of the market lately. 

Yes we do have our favourites, but when you speak with supposed conviction like agent does you get egg all over your face when you then speak with conviction in a completely contradictory and opposite manner.


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## Ramblin Round (4 May 2011)

One thing that is evident is that this play is still moving at a lightning fast speed. The frac designs, land leasing approach, lease spacing and lease shapes are all ever changing. Technology is getting better and more plays are getting white hot as we speak.

It is almost unfair to compare what one company did 8 months ago to what the same company's relationships are doing now. If I knew then what I do now I'd have drilled my own Wilcox/Eagle Ford well already. It's such a volatile environment down here still, and will be for years. 

I can't really comment on Hilcorp except that they are a huge company, have been historically successful offshore, and are private. I think anyone associated with them should be glad they are due to Hilcorp's financial power. Since the Deepwater Horizon explosion the BP offshore politics has fed the onshore shale plays even furthur. I'll even stretch to say that recent speculative futures trading because of the Haynseville/EFS play has contributed to why we are paying $4.00/gallon today. Wall Street has all but just begun to wrap its yankee brain around oil and gas investments in the EFS IMHO. There are stupid amounts of money being made _and yet to be made _here.


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## Miner (4 May 2011)

Today in general oil shares have taken a slow dive with some exception.

However with such a strong potential for TXN I fail to understand why it is continuously trying to reach the SPP price 68 cents 

does the slide in price is justifying the sales by the directors ?


Until 1.36 PM from ASX on 4 May 2011

TXN  0.695  -0.010  0.695  0.700  *0.690  *0.720  0.690  562,621 
03 May 2011 0.705 [B]-4.08%[/B]  0.740 0.700 546,369 
02 May 2011 0.735 *-2.65% * 0.760 0.720 587,534 
29 Apr 2011 0.755 [B]-4.43% [/B] 0.795 0.745 1,514,080 
28 Apr 2011 0.790 0.64%  0.805 0.785 495,490 
27 Apr 2011 0.785 *-4.27%*  0.835 0.785 589,767 


DYOR


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## Sharejon (4 May 2011)

TXN is sliding down with the market. Over the last week my shares have been going down 3-4% a day on alot of occasions.

The SPP price was 65 cents by the way, not 68. I'm keen to buy a few more so I wouldn't mind these prices holding for a few more days.

What I really like about TXN is the quick monetization which the company will experience through the large working interest EFS wells.

Obviously the downside to that is the large capital expenditure, but TXN is very well funded at the moment and the upside to the highest working interest is much greater than the downside!


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## geelongfan (5 May 2011)

txn sp is looking healthier today.
can someone explain to me the point of a bot? i notice that it picks up 1 share here and there all the time.. why do they do that?


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## poverty (5 May 2011)

geelongfan said:


> txn sp is looking healthier today.
> can someone explain to me the point of a bot? i notice that it picks up 1 share here and there all the time.. why do they do that?




I like to think of them as can collectors.


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## Miner (9 May 2011)

http://www.abc.net.au/news/stories/2011/05/09/3211836.htm
the linked news is probably true for all petrol based shares.

Those in coal seam will be also affected.

However it is strange the quietness in TXN thread for a while.

Gone are the days the high acrage, high eagle stories were obvious in this thread.

What is happening really in TXN ?

Share price slightly rose to rise about 80 cents.

Let us see how low petrol price affecting TXN and other oil shares

Cheers


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## estseon (10 May 2011)

Miner,

The blistering performance of the A$ must have some affect on prices for a commodity priced in USD anyway.

With annual global consumption running at about 3.1bn bbls, and rising, there is only one direction for the oil price in reality. The companies like TXN operating in the shales benefit from very low exploration risk, low costs of getting the product to processing plant and distribution centres and relatively low drilling costs but that is far from the norm. Exploration offshore, in the Arctic, off the Falklands etc is hugely expensive and that requires a high oil price to make it commercially viable. If the oil price collapses, it will be short lived because, as we saw a couple of years ago, capital budgets are slashed. That would change the view of supply/demand balance going out 3 - 5 years and the futures might well respond.

In the UK, if you strip out the duties, a litre of petrol is cheaper than a litre of branded bottled water. There is plenty of room for upward price adjustment.

Perhaps ABC news should suggest to car owners that they can hedge their tank filling costs by investing in TXN...every increase in the oil price would then bring a smile to their faces.


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## Ramblin Round (10 May 2011)

Esty

That's my strategy. When I fill up the truck I wish gas was 8 dollars a gallon instead of 4. lol.......... Just tell people life's about perspective. It all depends on which side of the pipeline you're on.


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## Miner (11 May 2011)

estseon said:


> Miner,
> 
> The blistering performance of the A$ must have some affect on prices for a commodity priced in USD anyway.
> 
> Perhaps ABC news should suggest to car owners that *they can hedge their tank filling costs by investing in TXN.*..every increase in the oil price would then bring a smile to their faces.




thanks Esteon for your very thought provoking thoughts on TXN, oil price and hedging suggestion.


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## Agentm (13 May 2011)

condog

i think the issues in karnes are really on the ability for the region to cope with the massive progress all operators have there.. the sugarkane is a very lucrative play, conoco and tcei put forward 1300 acre spacing to secure leases, but its a real battle for the operators to hold acreages by production there.  many are losing acreages and topleasing is always happening. there are many many operators in the county now, and a massive shortage of everything needed to make it all happen.. 

my views on the karnes dewitt region is that its unable to deal with the capacity in terms of pipelines and we see a lot of operators choking back the wells just to hold the acreages

my discussions with a few major holders in aut just recently has brought some confidence that hilcorp may perform a miracle and hold the acreages that aut have a % WI in.. but i am sceptical

the efs play is really a nightmare for some operators due to the leasing on such small time constraints, i was on one ranch and conoco had just paid $1 mill for not drilling on time, they had 5 well to drill on the ranch and only one completed, and the delays for rig availability even for conoco is costly, these are not small operators, conoco nad amny of the larger players are suffering severe problems and bottlenecks..

i dont think anyone, including myself, could have anticipated how hard it would be, and in the same context how amazing it is to be in the efs.

be cautious in the sugarkane i think. its a tough place to hold acreages and very high leasing prices are the penalty should you fail to hold by production.  i have no doubt hilcorp is aware of it, but sometimes things are going to be out of your control on the oil fields..

this play is a monster..

looking around there are demands for cres to go to other plays, and although the landrigs have the offshore guys on them to fill i nthe missing gap of experience horizontal drillers, the other plays, shale plays, are demanding crews away from the sugarkane.. and offshore drilling will see a huge vacuum in terms of experienced crews.

its an interesting play, with lots of plots and twists,.. things change day to day week to week.

there are factors to look out for, pipelines are in many cases years away still to deal with capacity. 

cheers


http://www.einnews.com/247pr/212393


----------



## condog (13 May 2011)

Agent you need to listen to who and what counts. 

AUT have stated several times in recent announcments that they are on and ahead of targets to retain leases. So much so that they are going to be playing with reduced well spacing. They have 4 full time drill rigs, 2 full time frac crews, they have secured a part time 5th rig and 3rd frac crew. 

That speaks volumes more then rumours. I appreciate youve been on the ground talking to people in the know. But the evidence forthcoming and the results rolling in tell a far different story to the rumours and inuendo. 

It is infact operators like TXN that are having trouble with delays, not AUT.

So far Hilcrop and AUT have had minimal delays and they have done a brilliant job with strategic preparations for both well construction and flows to sales.


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## Agentm (13 May 2011)

condog

i dont need to do anything you say i need to do, the forum is about discussion not ordering people to do things. 

there are not many small to mid cap oilers doing full field development, its a very expensive model to run. i can see that in many years time there will be payback for aut, but the staggering costs to run a project to completion is something many have considered in their risk profile.

i think the texon small cap have an interest in the shale play, and it is to maximise shareholder returns on a prospect, and i feel when your an operator like texon is they have the ability to hold out acreages and maximise return and control the costs all along.. i really like the texon model and have invested accordingly. i see far fewer reasons to dilute in texon as opposed to the massive dilutions that you see in the farm in scenario, the majority of the sugarkane farminees were not looking to go full field but hoping to not dilute and get maximum return to shareholders through proving up the play.. if your appetite is to invest for full field as a farm in partner then so be it.. hilcorp is an exceptional operator, i have met a few of their associated oil field personnel. but i think ultimately hilcorp is a company looking after its interests first and foremost. i expect that to be paramount in all their decisions on which part of the oil field to exploit for near term and long term exploration and development. and which wells will be experimental wells and which wells wont be. its a big project to bring on stream, needs very clever people to stay with you and run the operations.. things change day to day and things change week to week in texas..  all things have dramatic effects on how projects move and how resources are utilised in the oil industry.

hope that helps a little

texon is expanding as an operator, its looking for low cost high gain shallow oil targets, wilcox is on the menu it seems, in the mcmullen acreages and in the collangatta and scarborough targets



just keeping an eye on the region a little

apart from those staggering wilcox wells real close by to the
texon acreages in mcmullen, its noteworthy also that
enerquest has a quiet little austin chalk vertical experiment
going on quietly near by for the past 3 years or so

interesting little well imho


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## condog (13 May 2011)

Straight from AUT latest presentation


> *Early mover advantage *of highly contiguous
> acreage is excellent for development
>  Well locations are being drilled in order of
> lease expiry – leases currently expire
> ...




I tend to trust Jon Stewart and company presentationsover rumour.

*2 years ahead of lease expireys. *What drugs are the people on you are talking to that think AUT will not meet lease expireies. I want some of it. If we could bottle it we could probably make Julia gillard look like a good Prime Minister, and Tony Abbot a good alternative. LOL


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## Miner (14 May 2011)

Extract from Commsec ; 18 buyers and 61 sellers. About five times more units available for sale.

The way TXN has been moving, I am waiting for the price to go down to SPP price 65 cents for another buying opportunity.  

Thankfully for the first time I could smell the fish with TXN and sold out at average 82 cents.

I still believe TXN  is a good scrip with fundamentals right excepting the current price is not right (for me). DYOR



Share Quote as at 6:51 PM Sydney Time, Saturday, 14 May 2011 
  TEXON PETROLEUM LTD FPO    

Code Bid Offer Last Change* % Change* Open High Low Volume Trades Value News 
TXN 0.695 0.720 0.700 -0.005 -.71 0.705 0.710 *0.690* 286,828 69 200,091   

      Buy | Sell | Add to Watchlist | Research | Chart | Course of Sales  

*18 buyers for 336,770 units  61 sellers for 1,532,909 units  *


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## estseon (15 May 2011)

Miner said:


> thanks Esteon for your very thought provoking thoughts on TXN, oil price and hedging suggestion.




It was in response to yours and the news item that you flagged.

As to the likely price performance and the relevance of the weighting of buy and sell orders, we will have to wait and see as the operations news is progressively released. As the potential is quite substantial, 5c saved on the purchase price should make little difference. If I did not believe in the potential, I'd not purchase it at 65c or 55c for that matter.

Still, everyone to his own view.

As regards the general point on farm-ins, without knowing the contractual terms of the farm-in agreement, which might be specific about the strategy for field development, it is reckless to make any presumptions about how free the operator is to act.

TXN may be happy and able to proceed (pretty much) alone (except in the case of the Pearall), but it is substantially bigger than was AUT at the time of the farm-out to Hilcorp. AUT was less than half the size and had twice the acreage holding with leases getting ever closer to expiry.


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## Agentm (20 May 2011)

from rbs

courtesy riche

Double Blessed ST Buy

The Daily Edge

Texon Petroleum Limited (TXN)

After  posting a record high of $0.97 and strongly overbought momentum  readings in mid April 2011 a pull back to unwind the overbought  conditions took place. The price retraced to its static and dynamic  support of $0.65, which is likely to hold once again. The RSI indicator  completed a double bottom pattern, suggesting that a short-term rally is  likely to unfold. A small bullish divergence between the price and the  stochastic indicator has formed throughout May 2011, pointing to a  short-term rise. On Thursday the price broke above the down trend line  from the April 2011 high, showing that the down swing is losing momentum  and is likely to reverse. Given the proximity to support and bullish  prognosis from momentum indicators, we recommend buying around current  price levels. The first potential upside price target is towards $0.90,  however higher price levels are achievable over time.


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## condog (25 May 2011)

Concerning declines out on EFS#2
it had IP of 1105 and 30 day average of 551boepd

When you consider the first 10 days or so would have been up round the 1000 mark, the last few days of the moneht must be round 300boep possibly up to 400 max imo. 
This again is a concern. Hopefully just like Tyler the 60days will be better.


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## bbker (25 May 2011)

condog said:


> Concerning declines out on EFS#2
> it had IP of 1105 and 30 day average of 551boepd
> 
> When you consider the first 10 days or so would have been up round the 1000 mark, the last few days of the moneht must be round 300boep possibly up to 400 max imo.
> This again is a concern. Hopefully just like Tyler the 60days will be better.




Offhand, what were Tyler's 30 day and 60 day figures? Since it's in the same area, we could estimate a similar outcome after 60 days to Teal. 

That's also assuming there was no day of interruption.


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## condog (25 May 2011)

bbker said:


> Offhand, what were Tyler's 30 day and 60 day figures? Since it's in the same area, we could estimate a similar outcome after 60 days to Teal.
> 
> That's also assuming there was no day of interruption.




IP 1200 boepd

30 day 655 boepd

60 day  632 boepd

Im sure there where interuptions, but the maths averages dont lie. Lets hope 60 days are in excess of 500boepd.


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## Ramblin Round (25 May 2011)

One thing I do like about Texon as an operator is that they appear to consistently report true and honest averages. Not a hyped up 48 hour "take this number and run with it" average like others have been known to do in this play.

If that were my well I'd dance a jig @ 500-1000 bopd with today's prices. They drilled it, fracced it and brought it in successfully. You know how many people I've seen who can't even do that ? lol........


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## Miner (25 May 2011)

I think market (or some of the operators) already knew about one month delay of rig arrival and discounted the price.

Hopefully TXN will have some higher Mach Number to lift the sinking plane upwards from June.

The silver line is today's news has hardly impacted the SP much and it closed at 69 cents. If it was a surprise then the SP would have gone much lower and volume would have been significant too . Who knows .

Good luck holders and I will reenter when get more confidence on the movement.


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## Miner (2 June 2011)

It has been more than a week and this thread has been very quiet.
Looking at today's market TXN is holding good and hope that will be better as market recovers.
However I am still hopiing for an entry point below the issue price of rights.


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## Magic Man (2 June 2011)

Miner said:


> It has been more than a week and this thread has been very quiet.
> Looking at today's market TXN is holding good and hope that will be better as market recovers.
> However I am still hopiing for an entry point below the issue price of rights.




No news, AUT flying and a share price, even though holding up well but still disappointing does that i think.


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## nioka (2 June 2011)

Miner said:


> It has been more than a week and this thread has been very quiet.
> Looking at today's market TXN is holding good and hope that will be better as market recovers.
> However I am still hopiing for an entry point below the issue price of rights.




Don't hold your breath. I doubt we will see the SPP price again without some very bad news especially seeing the jump in values with the take over action in the area that is reflected in the AUT and EKA values. I've been happy to buy more at 70c, a point that I considered near enough to the bottom.


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## Sdajii (2 June 2011)

If it goes up on a day like today I'm thinking it's unlikely to go below the issue price. We've had a bit of time since the shares were given out, and there have been some uncertain times between then and now. It looks like most of the people who wanted to take quick profit, or those who were going to be spooked into selling, etc etc have already sold. I wouldn't be surprised if we don't go back below 70c. We topped 90c not long ago, I think that's a more likely target than 65c.

Not that I know anything of course, it's just Sdaji's rambling mumbles which could be entirely wrong.


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## bbker (13 June 2011)

Getting back to the production numbers, do you guys think these large declines are most due to the shale areas in EFS wells 1 and 2 being more oily or "oilier" when compared to wet gas/condensate areas? And therefore this appears to be the natural trend.

Or is it mostly because of the way Texon is dealing with these wells?

Or both, say 50/50. Or neither, due to what's down there -- or what isn't there!

The *Credit Swiss* report on Aurora's website has me wanting to favour the idea of the very former. 

Look at: "Shale gas and oil production profiles have THREE distinct characteristics." on p26 -- "Early decline rates can be as high as 80% in the first year (and are typically higher in oil wells than gas-condensate wells).".

http://www.auroraoag.com.au/IRM/Company/ShowPage.aspx/PDFs/1593-24849450/CreditSuisseAnalystReport


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## nioka (13 June 2011)

bbker said:


> Getting back to the production numbers, do you guys think these large declines are most due to the shale areas in EFS wells 1 and 2 being more oily or "oilier" when compared to wet gas/condensate areas? And therefore this appears to be the natural trend.
> 
> Or is it mostly because of the way Texon is dealing with these wells?
> 
> ...




Do we know yet what these declines are. It is early days and the results so far may be influenced by a series of events that will not be on going. Events such as experimenting with choke sizes for optimum levels of production, variations caused by initial early flows cleaning out drilling fluid etc. Lets wait and get the results and rely on the operators to get the best results possible. Speculating could lead one to have a glass half empty instead of a glass half full.


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## bbker (13 June 2011)

nioka said:


> Do we know yet what these declines are.



EFS1: 1267 boepd -> 655 -> 632 (60days)
EFS2: 1228 boepd -> 551 (30 days)



> It is early days and the results so far may be influenced by a series of events that will not be on going. Events such as experimenting with choke sizes for optimum levels of production, variations caused by initial early flows cleaning out drilling fluid etc. Lets wait and get the results and rely on the operators to get the best results possible. Speculating could lead one to have a glass half empty instead of a glass half full.



Not sure what you're implying by speculation but are you suggesting that the flows can be increased late in a well's age?

I'm sure they're trying to get the best results but I actually trust you guys more, even when you disagree with each other, like agentm and condog.


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## nioka (14 June 2011)

bbker said:


> Not sure what you're implying by speculation but are you suggesting that the flows can be increased late in a well's age?
> 
> I'm sure they're trying to get the best results but I actually trust you guys more, even when you disagree with each other, like agentm and condog.




The rates available so far have not been assessed over a long enough period to determine the long term probability.

I'm suggesting that any rates of decline are speculation at this stage and that as the wells age there is most likely to be improved technology that will assist to keep that decline rate in check.


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## bbker (14 June 2011)

nioka said:


> The rates available so far have not been assessed over a long enough period to determine the long term probability.



60 days is the accepted benchmark period.



> I'm suggesting that any rates of decline are speculation at this stage and that as the wells age there is most likely to be improved technology that will assist to keep that decline rate in check.



It's all there in the averages. I don't think the flow rate can be increased without affecting the well's integrity, ultimate decline and EUR. 

And yes, I know it's still early days for the other 2 EFS wells and the vertical ones.


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## Miner (14 June 2011)

nioka said:


> *Don't hold your breath*. I doubt we will see the SPP price again without some very bad news especially seeing the jump in values with the take over action in the area that is reflected in the AUT and EKA values. *I've been happy to buy more at 70c*, a point that I considered near enough to the bottom.




Hi Nioka
I held my breath for ten days and here u go mate: TXN has commenced trading at 65.5 cents and lowest for today so far was 64.5 cents (Rights were issued at 68 cents). I am sure you have had plenty of opportunity to buy at 70 cents and I will do the same at 64 cents

Code Last % Chg Bid Offer Open High Low Vol 
TXN 0.650  -4.41%  0.650  0.655  0.680  0.680  0.645  527,966


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## Sdajii (14 June 2011)

Looks like I got this one wrong! I doubt it would have happened without the market going so poorly lately, but it did happen. Oops! -1 point to Sdaji.

Still holding, but wish I hadn't bothered with that whole SPP thing when I did  Hopefully it'll bounce back from here.


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## Magic Man (14 June 2011)

Guys i have been disapointed with this stocks performance,, Isnt there an annoucemnet due out?? i ahvent seen anything.. I can see this going back to 55 cents if not lower due to mrkt sentiment, poor buying depth, no volume, and no GOOD news.. Thoughts


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## bbker (14 June 2011)

Magic Man said:


> Guys i have been disapointed with this stocks performance,, Isnt there an annoucemnet due out?? i ahvent seen anything.. I can see this going back to 55 cents if not lower due to mrkt sentiment, poor buying depth, no volume, and no GOOD news.. Thoughts




Lack of news and delays + shaky market = people easily scared. 

People also get scared by others getting scared who they see sell. Also treating it like a stock with buying/selling based on news time frame.

My perception 

Otherwise read some technical analysis books.


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## nioka (14 June 2011)

Miner said:


> Hi Nioka
> I held my breath for ten days and here u go mate: TXN has commenced trading at 65.5 cents and lowest for today so far was 64.5 cents (Rights were issued at 68 cents). I am sure you have had plenty of opportunity to buy at 70 cents and I will do the same at 64 cents
> 
> Code Last % Chg Bid Offer Open High Low Vol
> TXN 0.650  -4.41%  0.650  0.655  0.680  0.680  0.645  527,966




You win some, you lose some.   Holding your breath has proved successful and I believe you made a great buy. "Sell in May and go away" has proven to be the way to go once again. I'd like to buy more at these prices but have committed some serious money towards a new start up company that will keep me out of the market for a period.


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## bbker (15 June 2011)

3rd EFS well is being drilled. Started 12 June; announced today.

It's said in one of the broker reports that the cost of each EFS well is $8-9 million. But if TXN's working interest is 82% does this reduce what the TXN contributes to the cost? If anyone could point out where this is indicated...


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## estseon (18 June 2011)

bbker said:


> 3rd EFS well is being drilled. Started 12 June; announced today.
> 
> It's said in one of the broker reports that the cost of each EFS well is $8-9 million. But if TXN's working interest is 82% does this reduce what the TXN contributes to the cost? If anyone could point out where this is indicated...




Thinking about it, earning 82% of the revenues (before royalty) for paying 100% of the costs would be a pretty rubbish deal by any account..............Does it need confirmation?


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## nioka (18 June 2011)

estseon said:


> Thinking about it, earning 82% of the revenues (before royalty) for paying 100% of the costs would be a pretty rubbish deal by any account..............Does it need confirmation?




I guess that was part of the price paid for getting the lease etc. A normal business deal in this game as far as i can work out.


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## bbker (18 June 2011)

estseon said:


> Thinking about it, earning 82% of the revenues (before royalty) for paying 100% of the costs would be a pretty rubbish deal by any account..............Does it need confirmation?




It might be the best deal ever but if the well doesn't come up to scratch, 18% or around $1.5m could add up.


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## boff (18 June 2011)

bbker said:


> 3rd EFS well is being drilled. Started 12 June; announced today.




And they followed that up with an announcement r.e. Olmos number 11 being drilled.

Which is great news because I'd just read this downer of a report
http://www.bloomberg.com/news
and I thought that perhaps the drop in SP wasn't just general market malaise but was drought related as well. Seeing as Texon is proceeding as planned with their drilling program I'm more confident that's not the case.


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## bbker (18 June 2011)

boff said:


> And they followed that up with an announcement r.e. Olmos number 11 being drilled.
> 
> Which is great news because I'd just read this downer of a report
> http://www.bloomberg.com/news
> and I thought that perhaps the drop in SP wasn't just general market malaise but was drought related as well. Seeing as Texon is proceeding as planned with their drilling program I'm more confident that's not the case.




Could be the case. It doesn't seem to be affecting Aurora's share price which is in the same geography but then a big projection seems to be priced into its premium.

Looking at weather forecasts for McMullen there's only a 20-30% chance of showers in the next few days.

http://forecast.weather.gov/MapClick.php?zoneid=TXZ230


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## Hatchy (19 June 2011)

nioka said:


> I guess that was part of the price paid for getting the lease etc. A normal business deal in this game as far as i can work out.




anyone know or can work out who owns the land that is getting some or all of the 18% profit not going to txn?


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## Hatchy (20 June 2011)

Another drop today. Sub 60c from a high over 90c only a few months ago. 

Ouch. This tiny eagle ford player is really starting to hurt.


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## jancha (20 June 2011)

Hatchy said:


> Another drop today. Sub 60c from a high over 90c only a few months ago.
> 
> Ouch. This tiny eagle ford player is really starting to hurt.




No different than EKA in % dropping from 44c down to 26c. Why should TXN be any different? Most of all these small players have dropped across the board. TXN just took a bit longer getting there.


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## bbker (23 June 2011)

*PROGRESS REPORT
Production
Second quarter 2011 production is expected to average 730 boepd nett to Texon’s NRI beneficial interest, up by 20% compared with the first quarter 2011 production rate but slightly down on the second quarter forecast of 770 boepd in the Company’s May AGM Report. In recent days, the Company’s nett production has been 790 boepd (65% oil).*

This looks difficult to gross up well performance as for the 2 EFS wells, one is 61.6% NRI and the other 75% NRI without the other wells.

Say 70% NRI as a rough estimate,
730 boepd nett divide 70% NRI ~ 1000 boepd gross for the quarter forecast.

But the grossed up value could be higher as some wells have smaller NRI. The smaller the NRI, the higher the gross well total will be.


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## rcm617 (23 June 2011)

Bit of a disappointing progress report I thought, with another downgrade of production for the quarter, after estimates going from 920 boepd in April to 770 in May and down to 730 now. 
Wonder why they didnt include the 60 day production report from the second EFS well, they had the IP on the 15th April. Have been waiting for this before considering buying back in.


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## bbker (23 June 2011)

*Second quarter 2011 production is expected to average 730 boepd nett to Texon’s NRI beneficial interest

In recent days, the Company’s nett production has been 790 boepd (65% oil)*

Going from the above, since the nett production is higher now (790 boepd) than the expected average (730 boepd) for the quarter (which is nearly over), that would mean there were interruptions and this is why there is no 60 day production update from the 2nd EFS well, yet.

But it's hard to say what the delay offset was from the latest well in getting the average from 770 to 730.


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## nioka (23 June 2011)

bbker said:


> *Second quarter 2011 production is expected to average 730 boepd nett to Texon’s NRI beneficial interest
> 
> In recent days, the Company’s nett production has been 790 boepd (65% oil)*
> 
> ...




There is a decline in flow from all wells and probably accounts for these figures, the decline in this case is quite good. This will soon be offset by new production coming on line soon. There may also have been interruptions or an alteration to the chokes. if they intentionally restricted flow it would be to extend the productive life of the well and maximise overall production.


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## bbker (24 June 2011)

nioka said:


> There is a decline in flow from all wells and probably accounts for these figures, the decline in this case is quite good. This will soon be offset by new production coming on line soon. There may also have been interruptions or an alteration to the chokes. if they intentionally restricted flow it would be to extend the productive life of the well and maximise overall production.




It doesn't say that there were alterations to the chokes. In each EFS IP announcement a choke size was indicated but nothing was stated after that for the times at 30 and 60 days.

In the 1st EFS well, the initial decline was sharp but then the bell curve really flattened out between 30 and 60 days so who knows?


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## bbker (2 July 2011)

Just re-read the AGM pres 26/5/11 on Scarborough on p46 and realised I dismissed or overlooked the 28mmboe/170 bcf the first time thinking possible 10 million cfgpd IP was a typo. 

That would be 10,000/6 = 1667 boepd if they can pull it off so this still has Usain Bolt legs and will get more interest in the lead up... not forgetting the other projects.

Well the reddened areas on the contoured images look pretty. Maybe the EFS could take a back seat.


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## boff (14 July 2011)

What a disappointing day. I didn't think the announcement was too bad, certainly good to see that the gas uplift technology is working. A near 10% drop for the day, capped off with a million share trade on close. I hope that the next couple of wells come on line soon......


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## bbker (14 July 2011)

boff said:


> What a disappointing day. I didn't think the announcement was too bad, certainly good to see that the gas uplift technology is working. A near 10% drop for the day, capped off with a million share trade on close. I hope that the next couple of wells come on line soon......




Yep the share price wasn't looking pretty short term as anticipated from the last few announcements leading into this one. But this announcement had some upside with the production tubing installed on EFS well 2 improving flow from 270 to 459 boepd over 9 days and the interruption was taken into consideration for the 60 day average. Frac wasn't perfect either.

So short term, maybe some overreaction will happen SP-wise but longer term it's ok also since EFS well 1 was good over the 6 month period.


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## albaby (15 July 2011)

Anyone have thoughts on bhp's takeover of Petrohawk[NYSE:HK]which also has leases in the Eagleford area?At its current price TXN  might be a cheap target.


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## bbker (15 July 2011)

It looks like it's happening with the volume that went through today.


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## Miner (16 July 2011)

To be a devil's advocate I think the increased volume was opportune buying when TXN dropped the price,
The fact is TXN production has dived down at 70 percent of forecast value has devalued the share price 
Market is nervous world wide and TXN is no exception
However on Monday probably ASX will take a positive lead from Friday DJ rise.
I personally still would like to see more opportunties from TXN before reentering. But I could be wrong so DYOR


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## albaby (21 July 2011)

["Texon Petroleum Limited (ASX:TXN) advises that Peeler #3 ("P#3") has reached its total vertical depth of 2,774 metres (9,100 feet). This is the eleventh well in the Leighton oil and gas field - all of which are successful oil and gas producers.

P#3 is the northern most well drilled to date in the Leighton field. The targeted Olmos sand in P#3 has reservoir characteristics similar to the other Olmos production wells. This positive result confirms that the Leighton Olmos reservoir extends across the northern part of the field and that it contains good quality reservoir further de-risking the 24 undrilled Olmos well locations in the field.

Production casing has been installed in the well in preparation for fracture stimulation in August. The well will then be connected for oil and gas production."]This news today should at least put a floor under the 
sp.Would this tempt you Miner or will you wait for flow rates?disc I hold.Cheers Al.


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## Mofra (22 July 2011)

> Texon’s third Eagle Ford well has reached its total depth of 15,767 feet after successfully drilling 4,500’ of horizontal well in the Eagle Ford reservoir.
> 
> Oil and gas shows recorded throughout the 4,500’ are in line with the oil and gas shows in the Company’s nearby first Eagle Ford well (see map for well locations). The first well had an initial test rate of 1,267 boepd in December last year and has been in production since that time.
> 
> The third Eagle Ford well has been cased and suspended for fraccing, testing and production. This work is scheduled for mid August with first oil and gas production forecast for early September.




Quite a bit happening with TXN in the coming 2 months. Considered topping up but prefer to keep some capital spare currently.


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## alexc2005 (12 August 2011)

Good time to top up?

This share has really copped it recently. I bought in at 70c and initially things were going well.

Recent drop to 35c and current price at 47c makes me wonder whether this is a dog of a share or the market is just scared.

See what happens with announcements in the next couple of months i guess.


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## boff (12 August 2011)

alexc2005 said:


> Good time to top up?
> 
> This share has really copped it recently. .




Dude! Europe and the US are involved in a debt crisis. Remember the last time that happened? Only this time round it's not the banks that are broke.

I believe there will be excellent buying opportunities over next few weeks. It's very hard, and pretty much a mugs game to try and pick the bottom of any stock. More so when you're dealing with what is essentially a small cap 'speccy' that can move in large increments off the back of relatively small changes in sentiment (e.g. up 10% today and no news) and very large increments when resource upgrades are announced.

I also believe that the fundamentals for TXN haven't changed aver the last 6 weeks or so, and indeed have gotten better (check out their recent announcements).

I didn't top up at 35c (isn't hindsight a wonderful thing!) but will if the SP drops to the low 40's again which could well happen if the market takes another dump (France downgrade anyone?).

My


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## PinguPingu (24 August 2011)

boff said:


> I didn't top up at 35c (isn't hindsight a wonderful thing!) but will if the SP drops to the low 40's again which could well happen if the market takes another dump (France downgrade anyone?).





I was too chicken... But my plan's similar to yours there. If I have any capital.. 

Some nice gains today on Well news.


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## Agentm (25 August 2011)

*new reserves for texon*

nice figures out today

the 3rd and 4th efs well will impact on the next reserves upgrade in about 120 days or so..

i anticipate ip's and flow rates on the 3rd efs well very soon, and also the very interesting wilcox well to spud

near by, and some 3000 feet from the wilcox well, there are wells that have flowed some 1 million barrels of oil thus far

i have the view the readings in the teal ranch efs 1h when they tested the wilcox were exceptional. if you read the reports from earlier this year you may see what i mean.

close by, they did one of the first slumberger hiway frac experiments with petrohawk (soon to be BHP) and slumberger.  that well is in almost identical geology as the texon efs wells.  its got some merits and worthy of consideration imho....


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## Agentm (29 August 2011)

After completing this well in the next few days, the rig will move to drill Texon’s first Wilcox oil test which is expected to spud in about a week.

illuka has 38 feet of pay..  

well moves to teal pad and drills away in the coming week

flow rates wont be far off for the 3rd EFS well

plenty of news flowing right now


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## Agentm (1 September 2011)

obviously missed by txn holders here, but a very outstanding drill result was announced yesterday

Third Eagle Ford Well 1,488 bopd

Texon announces that its third Eagle Ford well (Tyler Ranch EFS #2H) has tested oil and gas at the rates of 1,488 bopd and 700 mcfgpd (combined 1,605 boepd (6)) through a 16/64” choke at a flowing tubing pressure of 3,000 psi.

The well is located just to the north of the Company’s first Eagle Ford Well (Tyler Ranch EFS #1H) - please refer to the attached map.

The test rate from the third well is more than the 1,200 bopd initial rate from Texon’s first EF well through the same sized choke. *The third well also has a higher flowing pressure which indicates the well may perform better than the first well*.

As the ownership of our first and third EF wells is the same, the third well is already connected for oil and gas production through the EFS #1 production facilities.
Texon has an 82% Working Interest (61.6% Nett Revenue Interest) in the Tyler Ranch EFS #2H well.

Texon’s CEO, David Mason said “*this is a very good result for the Company. The EFS #3 well is expected to add new Proved, Probable and Possible locations to the Company’s inventory of firm Eagle Ford well locations and highlights the quality of Texon’s Eagle Ford acreage.*”


texons sp has risen from .36 on the 9th august to a .61 close on the 31st of august

some good momentum to come and value perhaps as the well result and recent reserves upgrade sink in..

wilcox well will commence in the next few days.. watch out for that one, its very hard to see how that well would not flow given the readings in the teal ranch efs 1h..  will be watching out for a good result there with a little bit of good fortune..

good luck to all holders


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## Agentm (13 September 2011)

texon put a smaller choke size in and gets a massive spike and an increase in the production


Third Eagle Ford Well

Production Information

*On 31st August, Texon announced that its third Eagle Ford well (Tyler Ranch EFS #2H) had flowed at the rates of 1,488 bopd and 700 mcfgpd (combined 1,605 boepd (6)) at a pressure of 3,000 psi through a 16/64' choke.*

The well has been choked back, which typically results in a reduction in production, *however over the past 24 hours on a reduced 9/64' choke at and a pressure of 3,700 psi, the well has flowed at a rate of 1,786 bopd with 322 mcfgpd - an overall rate of 1,840 boepd.*


*Dave Mason (CEO) "This is a pleasing result and continues to highlight the value of our Eagle Ford Shale acreage. Our next production announcement on this well will be the flow rate for the first 30 days in a few weeks time."
*
Please refer to our earlier announcement dated 31 August and the location of the well is shown on the attached map.

Fraccing operations and testing of the Companys fourth Eagle Ford well are scheduled to begin in the last week in September.


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## AngusSmart (13 September 2011)

30 & 60 day rates will get me excited, going from previous reports from texon,

however.. things are looking alot better this time..

probably should have highlighted that the fraccing of the 4th is pushed forward too


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## Agentm (29 September 2011)

wilcox is demonstrating potential

i see wilcox activity all around the acres, with 1 mill bo from sophia, a few thousand feet from the texon leases

this from swift a few days ago


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## Agentm (30 September 2011)

this is how the wilcox looks in the region

primarily the play of the awp field was olmos sands and 
the wilcox

then the efs more recently

but the wilcox fields there have been around for a while, 
and imho  what texon and nutech are alluding to is that the
wilcox is oil saturated and very soon a production run will 
be commenced on the hoskin vertical

i am posting up another regional map, this time the 
highlighted red circled zones are the various wilcox wells
and fields

next to them are numbers, which correspond to the leases 
production (some are joined)

colour scheme on wells is explained in on the right


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## boff (30 September 2011)

Agentm,
Just wanted to thank you for your continued news flow and analysis - it's appreciated. I've sold out of a lot of stocks over the last few weeks (need dry powder), including MAD (another Texas play) but I believe that even if we have a continued slump in oil price that TXN can still move a lot higher over the next 6 months given the potential of the Wilcox.


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## Agentm (6 October 2011)

boff said:


> Agentm,
> Just wanted to thank you for your continued news flow and analysis - it's appreciated. I've sold out of a lot of stocks over the last few weeks (need dry powder), including MAD (another Texas play) but I believe that even if we have a continued slump in oil price that TXN can still move a lot higher over the next 6 months given the potential of the Wilcox.




thanks boff..

there are the usual suspects whom have no understanding of the efs, awp olmos or awp wilcox.. and blast anything i post, but i still dont see them posting any research to back up their allegations..

i research the efs, the olmos and the wilcox in the awp field, and along with texon, i see the results coming in that keep me convinced that there is oil in the wilcox, olmos and efs that is very very valuable, far more than the market is prepared to price texon today..



we are all convinced texon will be monetising the efs asset

once the 4th efs well is flowing and possibly a further well will be drilled early next year..

many holders of the share i talk to are convinced that texon would be moving on that even at this moment, and that it could be a work in progress. pure speculation, but its on their minds

i am convinced texon, and more to the point, john armstrong has made it perfectly clear that they are absolutely going to achieve the best value for the efs they can for the shareholders.   i know of no one that is objecting to it..

if you do the rough maths on the latest efs acreage moves in the past month alone, you will see the worse case scenario on the price per acre would make things very interesting for texon should things happen today and texons sp remained as it is..

this from riche on another forum

*Interesting  to see RBS grabbing hold of the chariman's comments in the AGM about  possibly realising value with what I can only assume would be a land  transaction. (I've been watching the share registry and there is no  evidence of a hostile attempt and a freindly would require more that a  30% premium to the current market price or RBS would torpedo it =  nothing left but a land sale or farm in). I've seen them refer to John's  comments in a number of recent communications.

I've been pondering about what the price would/could be:

With  4 producing horizontal wells (assuming #4 comes on line next week...)  the cost of each is say $8.5m and an EUR of 425-475,000 boe - I'd have  thought the minimum you'd accept for them is say $10.5m each? = $42m

Then the rest of the EFS acerage = 5900 - 320 (4x80acres for each of the wells above) = 5,580.
Then  given that recent transactions have been trending towards $24k/a (and  regardless of the fact that these are mostly PUD which I'd have thought  would command a higher premium) =5,580 x $24,000= $134m

total = $134m + $42m = $176m
Tax  would be interesting = usually 30% but there are a rack of tax losses  in the company that may be able to offset some of the gain. Don't have  enough info on that so I'll leave it out for this calc:

With 245m  shares thats just under $0.72 per share. And then we've still got  wilcox et al + seitel data - oh and $25m odd in the bank!

Crazy compared to the current share price. If the company does pull off a transaction the rerating will be fun.

Obviously nothing but my ponderings ... just thinking out loud.*


what riche points out is all very interesting indeed.. texon is around the .47 mark right now, so a sale of the efs on just 24k an acre means cash alone to the value of .72 per share!!!  wow

there is conjecture that given the amount of wells in place,  that texons field development of those efs acres may be able to achieve value far north of the 24k per acre riche discusses

i hear a lot from my texan friends that there are all sorts of different types of players looking at the efs, from various types of financed investment platforms and groups, to mid tiered oilers expanding their boundaries and of course we see the majors soaking up more acres, and some heavy hitters have been arriving on the efs in the past few years..

makes for some intriguing days ahead, could be weeks, could be months, who knows!!!

my view on texon is that i could never sell a single share now.. i absolutely believe that the value in the share is not being seen. with risk being so heavy a factor in the markets right now, texon is really standing out and trading as a highly speculative share still today despite its amazing recent results.

i have full confidence in the board, and i think texon will deliver upside for me..   plenty out there are selling the share down bigtime and we know the top 50 are only adding.. except 1 holder.. interesting that the top 50 are not abandoning this puppy with a meltdown out there..

so how will it pan out for the investors?  imho texon can deliver some pretty healthy value in the very near future, and i am very keen to see how it all ends..

best of luck to the holders on the share.. 

cheers


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## PinguPingu (10 October 2011)

Indeed, +1 gratitude for the extensive posts. I am still a holder after originally buying in the 70c's but still hold because I think this company is still great and is holding it's own in a volatile, negative market. The third well result looks great and I'm quite miffed at having any capital to buy back in again when this was in the 40c's.


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## alexc2005 (10 October 2011)

PinguPingu said:


> Indeed, +1 gratitude for the extensive posts. I am still a holder after originally buying in the 70c's but still hold because I think this company is still great and is holding it's own in a volatile, negative market. The third well result looks great and I'm quite miffed at having any capital to buy back in again when this was in the 40c's.




I used the crazy market sentiment to average my buy price down.

Albeit i only brought it down to about 60c, it's better than the 70c odd price i had before .

If you have faith in the company, silly sell offs are a great opportunity to average down. I'm pissed i didn't grab some AUT at 2.20, SUCH a recovery it has made!


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## Agentm (12 October 2011)

30,000 boe for 30 days

very interesting figures, when you have dilworth being the bets well so far at 23,000

dilworth was a schlumberger frac, very interesting that they achieved a 37% increase in the production from their slick water fracs in the same rock. 

texon has achieved a 50% increase from the first well and 30% more than the dilworth flowed at its peak..

the workover will arrive on the wilcox well shortly and the 4th efs well is flowing to sales now, results in a week

3000 bopde is what they could be doing in october-november...


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## mrthong (14 October 2011)

entered at .48, exit at .62 now its .68


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## PinguPingu (14 October 2011)

This is the exact situation that happened the first time I bought TXN. :flush: 


Watch it start sky-rocketing every time I want to buy in  (as is now) - but I waited till it hit 98c till it dropped to 70's, bought, but only to see it dropper further in the coming months. Tis the way.


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## Agentm (18 October 2011)

just think what 5900 times ~ $60k is

thats the upside potential cash bonanza this share can achieve short term

i am only accumulating myself.. 

nothing wrong with making a profit from your entry point,, well done imho


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## Agentm (19 October 2011)

spectacular result again for texon!!

Fourth Eagle Ford Well

1,400 bopd

Texon announces that its fourth Eagle Ford well (Hoskins EFS #1H) has flowed oil and gas at the rates of 1,408 bopd and 922 mcfgpd (combined 1,562 boepd (6)) at a pressure of 3,050 psi through a 18/64” choke. This is a similar flow rate and pressure to the Company’s #3 Eagle Ford well, but on a larger choke which is encouraging.

The Initial Production results from the Company’s four (4) Eagle Ford wells are:






The locations of the wells on Texon’s 5,900 WI acres of Eagle Ford leases are shown on the attached map.

Texon has a 92.6% average Working Interest in approximately 6,387 gross Eagle Ford acres (5,900 acres to Texon’s WI) in these lease areas.

The Company now has four (4) producing Eagle Ford wells each at a carefully selected location geographically spread across our leases to maximize reserves and information about Eagle Ford productivity.

Our Eagle Ford #1 (15 stages) and Eagle Ford #3 (17 stages) wells are on Lease Area A and the results of these wells, together with successful nearby Eagle Ford wells by other operators, confirm the presence of highly productive Eagle Ford throughout this area.


Eagle Ford wells #2 and #4 are on Area B. In the second well, three (3) of the 15 stages did not frac properly with a reduction in productivity as evidenced by the production for the first 30 days from this well.

Wells #1 and #3 with more contributing frac stages have performed better than well #2 and they provide a sound basis for planning multi-stage layouts in future Eagle Ford wells on Texon’s leases. New Eagle Ford wells with more stages in the vicinity of #2 are expected to perform more in line with the #1 and #3 results.

Area C is part way between our #3 well (1,488 bopd) and an 
Eagle Ford well which had an initial rate of 2,200 bopd.
When Eagle Ford wells are drilled in Area D to the South East of our #4 well, it is expected that they will produce in line with our #1, #3, and #4 wells.

On the basis of 80 acres per well, Texon’s leases have the potential for a further 75 Eagle Ford wells.

Texon’s CEO, Mr David Mason said “an initial production rate of 1,562 boepd from our #4 well is very good for the Company, supporting the likelihood that high productivity Eagle Ford occurs across the Company’s McMullen County leases”.

Having established four (4) successful Eagle Ford wells, which in turn are indicative that further Eagle Ford wells on Texon’s leases are likely to have productivity similar to and possibly better than the average of the above four (4) wells, the Board now plans to assess our Eagle Ford project to consider how to optimize value for the Company.


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## Kremmen (1 December 2011)

The new Chairman and CEO of TXN was Senior VP for Exploration for Petrohawk 2006-2008. Petrohawk was very successful and managed to get itself taken over recently at a significant premium by BHP.

Also, Mr Foss gets a total of 7 million options. 70c exercise, but only if the SP is over $1.05. He's not getting much salary (by CEO standards) unless he achieves that.


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## Mofra (1 December 2011)

Kremmen said:


> The new Chairman and CEO of TXN was Senior VP for Exploration for Petrohawk 2006-2008. Petrohawk was very successful and managed to get itself taken over recently at a significant premium by BHP.
> 
> Also, Mr Foss gets a total of 7 million options. 70c exercise, but only if the SP is over $1.05. He's not getting much salary (by CEO standards) unless he achieves that.



Out of interest, what's the expiry date?
I've held a few other stocks with similar targets - they tend to all hit the price target or get very close


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## PinguPingu (1 December 2011)

> Tranche I - one million unlisted options exercisable at 70 cents per option for a term of five (5) years, but only if the volume weighted average price (VWAP) of the Company's shares on the ASX is 150% of the exercise price for a period of 20 consecutive trading days (Price Target).
> If there is a change of control of the Company or if the Company disposes of more than 50% of its assets then the Tranche 1 options may be exercised without the Price Target being achieved.
> Unless already exercised, the Tranche I options will terminate if Mr Foss commits a material breach of his employment contract, the Company terminates Mr Foss' employment for serious misconduct or bankruptcy or if Mr Foss elects to terminate his employment with the Company within six months of 1 December 2011.
> 
> ...





- CEO Remuneration 30/11/2011


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## Ramblin Round (8 December 2011)

From what I see Texon has set the stage to see much growth and continued success in the Texas EFS industry. Hopefully more action items will come from the new CEO than from when Mason was in charge. I had always said that they are/were far more reserved than need be in such an agressive market here. 

Just my $0.02


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## philly (6 February 2012)

Ramblin Round said:


> From what I see Texon has set the stage to see much growth and continued success in the Texas EFS industry. Hopefully more action items will come from the new CEO than from when Mason was in charge. I had always said that they are/were far more reserved than need be in such an agressive market here.
> 
> Just my $0.02




This was posted on 8 December 2011 and no one has added anything since.
The SP hasn't moved
From the Dec 2011 Q we know that:
Eagle Ford is producing from 4 wells
there are no bidders for the Leighton/Olmos field
It seems that the new CEO IS treading water if he doesn't get a move on then his options exercisable when the SP is $1 may not be worth the paper they are printed on.
I expect more from an Eagle Ford explorer and producer


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## Ves (6 February 2012)

philly said:


> It seems that the new CEO IS treading water if he doesn't get a move on then his options exercisable when the SP is $1 may not be worth the paper they are printed on.



They have until Dec 2015 if I remember correctly.


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## philly (6 February 2012)

Ves said:


> They have until Dec 2015 if I remember correctly.




Hi Ves, yes you are correct.
Are you willing to wait that long for a Bombers flag?
Probably not.
I just want TXN to take their chances. ATM they are trading at 60c that is less than the SPP price of 65c last year.
And oh by the way GO CATS


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## poverty (7 February 2012)

philly said:


> Are you willing to wait that long for a Bombers flag?




He'll be waiting longer than that.


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## philly (19 February 2012)

Does anyone have any thoughts about TXN? Seriously, doesn't look like its going anywhere. The SP is stagnant at below the 65c when they had the SPP last year. I'm going to have a look at the other ASX listed companies with a foothold in the Eagle Ford. Must be better value out there.  I'm losing patience with TXN.


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## starman45 (19 February 2012)

TXN, bearish in the medium term, is trapped between resistance and support 0.63 0.55. The rebound from the 200 SMA, is bringing the stock to the support. Until the achievement and maintenance of resistance, the sellers are in advantage. IMHO.


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## philly (23 February 2012)

Kremmen said:


> The new Chairman and CEO of TXN was Senior VP for Exploration for Petrohawk 2006-2008. Petrohawk was very successful and managed to get itself taken over recently at a significant premium by BHP.
> 
> Also, Mr Foss gets a total of 7 million options. 70c exercise, but only if the SP is over $1.05. He's not getting much salary (by CEO standards) unless he achieves that.




As I understand the current position TXN is selling the  Leighton/Olmos field [no bidders yet] and now has put the Eagle Ford leases on the market as well.
Is there anything else to sell?
Don't know where we are heading now.
Potential takeover target?
Any thoughts?
I hold TXN


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## Kremmen (23 February 2012)

philly said:


> Don't know where we are heading now.
> Potential takeover target?



Absolutely. They are basically saying they have a good asset and the quickest, easiest way to turn that into shareholder value is a takeover. Excellent news. If they can get bought out like Petrohawk was by BHP, that would be brilliant.

I've had 2 stocks taken over in the last 6 months, LLA and FMS. Both at ~100% premiums. I'd be more than happy for TXN to do likewise.


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## boff (23 February 2012)

I am confused by today's press release.
To quote;


> Texon advises that it has appointed Albrecht & Associates, Inc. and RBS Morgans Limited to seek potential buyers for all or part of the Company’s 7,200 acre Eagle Ford oil project.




OK, so Eagle Ford is up for grabs.



> On the basis of the productivity of Tyler Ranch #2(H) and Hoskins #1(H), new wells are forecast to produce over 600,000 barrels of oil equivalent, 90% of which is oil and gas liquids.




OK, so does that mean 600,000 barrels up for grabs?



> There are 96 Eagle Ford well locations on these leases (including the 4 wells already drilled) representing a resource potential to the Company’s Working Interest of over 55 million barrels of oil equivalent.




Or does it mean 55mmb?

I'm going to discount 85% of that to give (at $100/barrel) a value of 4 cents a share for the former and 340 cents a share for the latter.

Could someone please correct me, because neither seems right to me (or if the latter, I've not discounted enough).


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## Kremmen (23 February 2012)

boff said:


> OK, so does that mean 600,000 barrels up for grabs?
> Or does it mean 55mmb?




600k/well x 92 = 55.2M

Probably need to discount it more than you did, though. Capital/drilling/tax/admin costs tend to add up to $25-40/barrel. Plus there are no guarantees that other wells will be nearly as good as the first few. (I assume TXN tried to pick the good spots for their first 4 wells.)


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## philly (25 February 2012)

So what are TXN's Eagle Ford leases worth?
They hold 7200 acres

I found this at  http://eaglefordshaleblog.com

How Much Per Acre For Eagle Ford Shale Gas Leases?

The Eagle Ford shale is the nation’s hottest oil and gas play and oil companies are paying top dollar for leases in areas where the concentrations of oil and natural gas liquids are the highest. The Eagle Ford shale is a rock formation that covers a broad, crescent shaped area that runs from the Mexican border to southeast Texas. Landowners lucky enough to own  mineral rights in  areas considered to hold natural gas and oil are being approached by landmen, or representatives of oil and gas companies with offers to lease their property. Oil companies are interested in everything from half- acre city lots to multi-thousand acre ranches and the amount of lease payments per acre are all over the place. There have been Eagle Ford shale leases made early on, in potentially marginal areas to the north and south of the main play, for as little as $50 an acre.  Some savvy landowners in areas where the production is expected to be incredible, have held out for over $6000 dollars or more per acre.  When you hear figures such as “$22,000 paid by Marathon Oil for Eagle Ford acreage”, realize these numbers are not what landowners are receiving, but are what was paid in transactions between corporations holding already leased land.


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## philly (25 February 2012)

I have gone back over recent transactions in the EFS and come up with this
The giant Chinese oil company CNOOC paid $1.1 billion for 30% of Chesapeake Energy's Eagle Ford acreage. That works out to about $12,000 per acre.

India's giant Reliance Energy bought into Pioneer's acreage. That deal worked out to over $10,000 per acre.

Canadian independent Talisman and Norwegian Major Statoil, agreed to pay $1.3 billion for 97,000 acres. That's about $10,900 per acre.

Marathon Oil paid $3.5 billion to buy Hilcorp Resources’ Eagle Ford shale holdings. They got 141,000 net acres and that’s about $22,000 per acre.

Shell oil has 106,000 acres in the Harrison Ranch in the Eagle Ford shale. It paid $10,000 per acre.

 So pretty much the average is $10,000 so TXN would be looking at $72,000,000

currently there are 242,539,848 shares on issue + 13,000,200 options on issue
[this includes the 7,000,000 options issued to the CEO and exercisable at 70 cents provided the share price reaches $1.05]

Lets say that all options are exercised the total no of shares increase to 255,530,048

so a crude calculation would be US$72,000,000  / 255,530,048 shares = $0.28 per share


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## boff (25 February 2012)

philly said:


> Does anyone have any thoughts about TXN? Seriously, doesn't look like its going anywhere. The SP is stagnant at below the 65c when they had the SPP last year. I'm going to have a look at the other ASX listed companies with a foothold in the Eagle Ford. Must be better value out there.  I'm losing patience with TXN.




MAD

I held that for a year, never moved off its range in the low 20s. Of course I sold before Xmas. And then look what happened. 

Sure, they were a different style of oiler, but still in Texas.


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## Kremmen (26 February 2012)

philly said:


> so a crude calculation would be US$72,000,000  / 255,530,048 shares = $0.28 per share



At anything around that level, nobody would exercise their options, hence the divisor in the above is inflated.

More importantly, those purchases have been huge areas. The quality of wells is highly variable and the oil-rich area of Eagle Ford is the only part that matters, given current gas prices. A good analysis of value would have to look at the specific area. (And I'm not going to do a good analysis, just pluck out a few figures that I've seen.)

Initial production rates in Eagle Ford seem to mostly be under 1000 boe/d. Anadarko has been reported as having initial average rates of 500-800 boe/d. TXN's average initial rate is 1432 boe/d. (1332, 1228, 1605, 1562) This appears to indicate that TXN's area is well above average.

Looking at initial 60-day average, TXN has 632, ? , 731 and 693 boe/d.

By comparison, let's look at AUT;
recent Longhorn (ann 23/1/2012): 502
recent Excelsior (ann 23/1/2012): 271

AUT, with 16365 net acres, has a market cap greater than 1.2B, valuing its holdings at over $73k/acre. The majority of that area (9075 net acres) is Longhorn, which has 60-day average rates around 30% lower than TXN. If we take AUT's current value and increase it by 30% to $94k/acre to make it comparable to TXN's superior results, we get a TXN value of around $2.65/share.

[This is why I've sold out of AUT and hold TXN.]


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## philly (27 February 2012)

Kremmen said:


> At anything around that level, nobody would exercise their options, hence the divisor in the above is inflated.
> 
> More importantly, those purchases have been huge areas. The quality of wells is highly variable and the oil-rich area of Eagle Ford is the only part that matters, given current gas prices. A good analysis of value would have to look at the specific area. (And I'm not going to do a good analysis, just pluck out a few figures that I've seen.)
> 
> ...




Kremmen, 
if the divisor is too high then I will use the no of shares currently on issue as the divisor hence a crude calculation would be US$72,000,000 / 242,539 848 shares = $0.30 per share 

You are correct that one needs to look at the quality of the acreage on offer.

I think that if you compare AUT with TXN then :
you have to include AUT'S interest in the Sugarkane as well as Longhorn and Excelsior,
you have to factor in that AUT has many producing wells whilst TXN has 4 producing wells and 
you have to factor in that AUT committed to drilling many new wells this year

As best I can ascertain the highest price paid so far in the EFS is $22,000 per acre by Marathon Oil when it brought out Hillcorp who had acreage and was the operator of the Sugarkane field on behalf of AUT, AWE & EKA. The Sugarkane is good quality acreage so $22,000+ per acre for TXN could be achievable.

Not sure your $93k per acre stacks up BUT would be extremley pleased to be wrong.

I hold TXN, AUT & EKA


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## Kremmen (27 February 2012)

philly said:


> Not sure your $93k per acre stacks up BUT would be extremley pleased to be wrong.



Oh, I don't think it does either. AUT's market cap in $/acre is huge compared to ... well, pretty much everyone. It could be that TXN is under-priced or that AUT is tremendously over-priced and, well, honestly I think it's more the latter.

However, the rising oil price and the Seaway pipeline reversal (see Reuters) pushing up WTI out of its recent discount to other oil prices will be good for all of them.


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## Agentm (2 March 2012)

$10k per acre is not what this oil field will sell for.. never!

my view of texons cash value per share after the sale of the olmos and efs is in excess of the $1.20 region in terms of share value

recently $25k per acre was paid, and that field had not had anything like the work done on it like texons acres have, and keep in mind texons mcmullen acres  have producing efs wells that are among the counties best producing efs wells!!



the marathon deal was not sold on a uniform price per acre, it was sold as an oilfield

texon is selling the mcmullen efs acres as an oilfield. 

the people close to that marathon deal know what the calculations were, and if you told me i could buy sugarkane in and around the turnbull wells in north west karnes county, i would have buyers lining up..

whne the marathon deal went through they priced it as  an oilfield, so very high prices were paid for the proven and PUD acres, and the other regions that at that stage were not drilled were priced at a much higher price..

i will repost a post i put on another forum to explain..





peter strachan in november said this of texon

Texon is an undervalued

_*"asset play with an assessed value of $1.20 per
share. The company now holds 6,734 valuable
Eagle Ford Shale acres. StockAnalysis
calculates that based on industry multiples, the
company’s EFS interests alone would be worth
75 cps in a trade sale"*_

$1.20 on the november 2011 total of 6,734 acres

in january 2012 texon announced an 8% increase in the efs acreages

so  $1.30 would be a fair representation of peter strachans (guess)cash  value for texon based on its revised acreages as of last month.

we  dont know what calculations he used, but i think it would be fair to  assume it was conservative and a guess based on average price per acres  seen recently.

with texons recent rise in the sp in line with WTI  rise, i think as it becomes evident that the efs will be sold, at  various points in time its likely some speculation will arrive in the  share.

there has been a substantial spike in the shares traded  daily but little movement in the sp apart from the correction to the WTI  price.. 

those close to the recent marathon deal with hilcorp  understand that the price per acre was not calculated uniformly in the  acreages, the proven and producing sugarkane region was priced at a  premium, and values 3 times anything like the average given for the  entire deal were given for the more productive acreages in the  sugarkane.

based on that, its fair to say the mcmullen acreages of texon are perhaps 60% towards the EUR's of the sugarkane, maybe higher?

so  when texons efs oil field is sold as an oil field, using the equations  they use on a sale like that,  i would doubt if peter strachans rough  guess based on what i believe is an average on last known efs sales,  will actually be close to the sale price that texon achieves in the  coming months.

its very possible in my view that the texon  smaller patch of efs, with 90% oil flowing, 3d's and a proven  undeveloped figure and some very good wells in play will achieve some  pretty high values far in excess of the current average price guess  based on a sale of 100,000's of efs acres with a substantial acreage  portion basically unproven.


all imho and dyor


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## Agentm (2 March 2012)

texon enters the ASX 300 as of today


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## Agentm (2 March 2012)

this post was posted by riche on another forum but will explain some points that are worth considering for the month of march

Been thinking...

The last update to reserves was 25/8/2011 ("Reserves - Mid Year 2011")

Texon runs a Dec year end which means that the 2011 financials will be release some time late in march.

For the last couple of years just prior to the financials TXN has updated its reserves for the AGM/Annual report.

eg 
29/3/11 Reserves - Year End 2010
30/3/11 Financial Report - 31 December 2011
&
22/3/10 Texons Proved and Probable Reserves Increase to 3.0mmboe 
31/3/10 Financial Report - 31 December 2009 

So I'd have thought it was a fair to assume that they'll do the same again this year.

The  chart on page 2 of the 25/8/2011 announcement shows the Proved &  Probable jumping from 2.2mmoe in 2009 to 3.9 in 2010 to 5 in mid 2011.

Given  the fact that TXN has had the #s 3 & 4 EFS wells come on line since  the last update in August, my guesstimate is that TXN will at least  double its Proved & Probable reserves to 10mmboe. On last years  increase the SP jumped from 71c to 92c in the 3 days that followed.  MAD's recent reserves upgrade helped something similar for their SP.

So  march is looking like it could be a bit of fun:
1) (am I too optimistic to hope for..) an olmos sale conclusion
2) the formal release of EFS sale docs (which will give an indication of possible price)
3) inclusion in the S&P 300
4) reserve upgrades
5) Dec financials

Nice set of shorter term catalysts lining up!


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## Kremmen (7 March 2012)

Agentm said:


> 1) (am I too optimistic to hope for..) an olmos sale conclusion




Point 1 achieved today. 4 to go.


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## boff (7 March 2012)

Kremmen said:


> Point 1 achieved today. 4 to go.




Point 3 also


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## philly (7 March 2012)

Points 1 & 3 achieved yet the SP goes down today.
I know the market was down today but I would have thought the sale of Olmos would have had a positive impact, An extra $US12m in the coffers is about 5 cents per share!Also fund managers would be buying given that TXN is now in the ASX 300
Any thoughts out there ??


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## Kremmen (8 March 2012)

boff said:


> Point 3 also




Depends how you look at it. The ASX rebalances are effective the 16th.



philly said:


> Also fund managers would be buying given that TXN is now in the ASX 300




It's not yet, but you might expect them to start sometime soon after the 16th.


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## rcm617 (8 March 2012)

philly said:


> Points 1 & 3 achieved yet the SP goes down today.
> I know the market was down today but I would have thought the sale of Olmos would have had a positive impact, An extra $US12m in the coffers is about 5 cents per share!Also fund managers would be buying given that TXN is now in the ASX 300
> Any thoughts out there ??




Punters might have been expecting a better price. They got $6.7 million last year for 20% of Leighton Olmos, compared to $12.4 million this time for the rest. I think from memory they still had near 50%.


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## Agentm (8 March 2012)

asx 300 on the 16th

efs sale was announced, sale price will not be disclosed as it would be negotiated

the mossman acreages are larger  olmos is present there

i think texon have a far higher ownership WI in the the unsold and larger acreages

i believe rbs made a slight adjustment to the acres left that were unsold so far. 

they see $200 mil or .85 cents to the share for the sale of the efs in cash value

plenty of upside if the efs sells, but the market disbelieves it is possible

based on my knowledge of the efs, i am accumulating as i think the sale will be achieved.

its be touted by rbs that there will be a dividend after the efs sale


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## Tukker (9 March 2012)

I would like Tech/a to have a comment on TXN chart.  Volume dropped right off with a miniscule price rise. 

Does this signal a weakness from buyers?


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## Agentm (9 March 2012)

tukker

80 - 90 % of buying and selling is through rbs

it gets down to maths now. what value are the acres..

the next reserves upgrade imho will tell a good tale as to how to value it..

any post reserves jump up in the sp will be strongly supported by rbs clients buying in. with me on board in that group

will be an interesting month in that regard


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## philly (10 March 2012)

Agentm said:


> asx 300 on the 16th
> 
> efs sale was announced, sale price will not be disclosed as it would be negotiated
> 
> ...




Hi agentm, what happens to TXN when it sell the EFS? My understanding it that it wont hold any acres any where in the world and although it will have an impressive bank balance it wont actually be an oil and gas explorer or producer. Where is it likely to go to drill its next well? Seems odd that it would leave the sweet EFS if it didn't have  another target in mind. 

So for now is the only real interest in TXN is based on the cash value of the share and / or potential dividend *after* the sale of the EFS? 
And I guess also with TXN going into the ASX 300 effective 16/3 the fund managers will have it on a buy list as well.


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## Agentm (10 March 2012)

philly said:


> Hi agentm, what happens to TXN when it sell the EFS? My understanding it that it wont hold any acres any where in the world and although it will have an impressive bank balance it wont actually be an oil and gas explorer or producer. Where is it likely to go to drill its next well? Seems odd that it would leave the sweet EFS if it didn't have  another target in mind.
> 
> So for now is the only real interest in TXN is based on the cash value of the share and / or potential dividend *after* the sale of the EFS?
> And I guess also with TXN going into the ASX 300 effective 16/3 the fund managers will have it on a buy list as well.




they hold the acreages over a huge wilcox target in duval county, but they wont drill it, its a gas target

they hold acreages in colorado county on an wilcox target, under a town, but wont drill it as its a wilcox gas target

imho they may sell it or let it slide

they hold a the southern acres in mcmullen that contain the olmos and wilcox, yet to be exploited, both oil targets

the efs is up for grabs

the pearsall shale in the mcmullen acreages throughout are not for sale

thats what they hold

post efs..  they will target are large unconventional oil play

the share will go to cash value once the efs is sold

may add more in a while,  just a quick reply

cheers


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## boff (13 March 2012)

Agentm said:


> 4) reserve upgrades




Point 4 achieved, only two more to go. And still no change in SP


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## Agentm (18 March 2012)

back to mid .60's

about 8 mill in volume has traded these last 3 days

i think the chairmans letter was very factual and informative.  texon sees their efs acres in a very positive light. it gets down to what cash value the share will achieve from the efs sale in the next few months


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## philly (26 March 2012)

Agentm said:


> back to mid .60's
> 
> about 8 mill in volume has traded these last 3 days
> 
> i think the chairmans letter was very factual and informative.  texon sees their efs acres in a very positive light. it gets down to what cash value the share will achieve from the efs sale in the next few months




Hi Agentm, I know this question might be the same as how long is a piece of string but what do you  believe is a reasonable time frame for the sale of the efs?
With the SP stagnant despite recent good news [asx 300, reserves upgrade] I might need to decide whether to stay and wait or get out now and invest elsewhere. 
Time to do some research


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## Sulfuras (26 March 2012)

Posted in another forum by agentm. Hope you don't mind the link here.

http://www.albrechtai.com/divestments/Texoz Brochure Eagle Ford.pdf

Negotiations to be concluded by May 2, 2012.


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## Agentm (26 March 2012)

philly said:


> Hi Agentm, I know this question might be the same as how long is a piece of string but what do you  believe is a reasonable time frame for the sale of the efs?
> With the SP stagnant despite recent good news [asx 300, reserves upgrade] I might need to decide whether to stay and wait or get out now and invest elsewhere.
> Time to do some research





Data Room Open .............................................................................. March 19, 2012
Data Room Closed ............................................................................. April 27, 2012
Offers Due ............................................................................................. May 2, 2012
Effective Date ....................................................................................... June 1, 2012

mid year is what texon wishes to dispose of it asset

it has another one to add over the next months, it wont reveal it right now, but as soon as it has a commanding position in the play it wants, it will be announced

i understand a dividend is being considered.

whether its efs acreages are sold by albrecht or a bidder takes it on market is yet to be played out

imho you wouldnt pay a fortune for an efs position when you can get it on market for nothing

whats real crazy is that rbs in brisbane are helping in the sale of the asset.. they know nil about selling oilfields..

i am holding for the upside i see.. early days right now..  data room closes late next month


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## philly (27 March 2012)

Agentm said:


> Data Room Open .............................................................................. March 19, 2012
> Data Room Closed ............................................................................. April 27, 2012
> Offers Due ............................................................................................. May 2, 2012
> Effective Date ....................................................................................... June 1, 2012
> ...




As always Agentm I appreciate your post. Thanks


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## Agentm (7 May 2012)

philly said:


> As always Agentm I appreciate your post. Thanks





cheers philly

data room is closed and bids would be on the offering

zero interest in the share on market, but it doesnt deter me from seeing the upside

with the drop in the sp recently, time to add..

cheers


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## Agentm (1 June 2012)

went to agm the other day

cliff foss is an incredible asset imho, presented excellently

sale of efs is to be within weeks imho

my view is that the deal is being done through the corporate room at rbs brisbane

met the guys doing it all and also pretty happy with the forward plan

plenty of upside in the share, the top 50 are accumulating, no changes for a long time

everyone i know is accumulating.. managed to get a few last week when some forgotten lowball bids came through

good luck is any asf members are still in it,  texon is going upwards in global down slide.. nice to be in this one right now


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## Miner (5 October 2012)

Market  gone up and Txn got down
I put a buy order  for 30 cents arbitrary as a could happen
Looks like the trend suggests it is heading south to happen,
Good for me to reenter but what about who bought at a much much higher price ?
Anyway need more data and back up to see if my wish list is going to be fulfilled


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## Kremmen (14 November 2012)

SEA and TXN both went into Trading Halt on yesterday. This was no coincidence, as it turns out. SEA plans to take over TXN, with TXN shareholders to receive 1 SEA share for every 2 TXN held.

[I hold both SEA and TXN.]


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## Agentm (21 November 2012)

the deal is not set, it is a merger that allows for a counter offer.

so if the EFS players want to get the EFS acres, they have ample opportunity.

i said this elsewhere

if you asked anyone in texas that they had some of the best EFS land, with permits all organised, pooled and with JVP wells organised to ensure 5000 feet laterals on all wells,  plus you get 8 producing wells, and all that for $12,000 an acre!!! 

they would basically ignore you, as that would be insane....

no one sell efs acre for those prices.  i cant even get contiguous acres in mcmullen for under $25k an acre in the oil zone..  best i had was 10,000 acres in atascosa for a bid of $10,000 and offers were being rejected.. 

i wont be voting for the merge, but will vote for the de-merge of txn/talon..

isnt talon a rat killer?


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## skc (21 November 2012)

Agentm said:


> the deal is not set, it is a merger that allows for a counter offer.
> 
> so if the EFS players want to get the EFS acres, they have ample opportunity.
> 
> ...




It's a script only deal... I guess it all depends on how much you value SEA's assets and if they are more or less undervalued than TXN's.



Agentm said:


> isnt talon a rat killer?
> 
> View attachment 49701




Love it


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## Agentm (21 November 2012)

i think the market is pricing in the $54 mill they will hand over for the wells being drilled.

that will send the sp down, and the end result will mean texon holders may be seeing SEA at .40 cents... so the eagleford will be worth less than they paid for the leases

i wont vote for it..

they need to get on with the sale...


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## Kremmen (21 November 2012)

Agentm said:


> i wont be voting for the merge, but will vote for the de-merge of txn/talon..




The big problem is: What's the better alternative? TXN has been trying to find someone to buy them out for ages, with zero success.

TXN could have had 20 ... 30 ... wells by now if they'd had the capital. But they don't. SEA can put their massive pile of cash into making TXN what it should have been.

Otherwise, how many years do we sit and wait for TXN amount to anything?


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## Agentm (21 November 2012)

kremmen

stop being logical and correct about things... lol

yes your correct in terms of cash, but it doesnt get my vote...

texon need to work harder and sell this efs, and the clock is running down.

the merge imho should never happen, if AUT allow the acres to go to SEA then i think their major holders will be leaving in droves, as who would have faith in a company that cant secure efs acres at $25k - $35 k per acre???

the SEA  merge is just fancy in my view.. if its a reality then SEA will achieve the greatest oil deal of the millennium!!!

its grand theft as it stands..


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## Miner (3 January 2013)

No ripple in the market inspite of the announcement today http://asx.com.au/asxpdf/20130103/pdf/42c8997gz5lk26.pdf and every Tom Dick and Harry making money on a bullish news, TXN director is 'extremely pleased" but no one else.

What is going wrong with TXN ?
Funny the announcement can not distilled into PDF and to be attached due to protection

Cheers
PS : i am interested to see my tip to go up - but seems no one is buying TXN story as published


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## Miner (4 January 2013)

Interesting to see at the close of session on Wednesday, TXN traded almost more than double the normal volume though price remained little changed. Some one is slowly building stake ??



Miner said:


> No ripple in the market inspite of the announcement today http://asx.com.au/asxpdf/20130103/pdf/42c8997gz5lk26.pdf and every Tom Dick and Harry making money on a bullish news, TXN director is 'extremely pleased" but no one else.
> 
> What is going wrong with TXN ?
> Funny the announcement can not distilled into PDF and to be attached due to protection
> ...


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## Kremmen (23 January 2013)

Miner said:


> Interesting to see at the close of session on Wednesday, TXN traded almost more than double the normal volume though price remained little changed. Some one is slowly building stake ??




Sometimes, the market makes little sense. A couple of good results recently have pushed up prices a little, but I reckon it's being held back by SEA now.


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## Ramblin Round (2 February 2013)

I have read the areas involving foreign investors (myself being one of them). How will this affect my pink sheet Texon holdings ? If anyone can provide color on this I would like to know others' thinking as to how they see it playing out for TEXOF shares held here stateside.


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## Kremmen (1 March 2013)

TXN has split off its subsidiary, Talon.
The rest of the company has been acquired by SEA.

It is no more. It has ceased to be.


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