# Technical Analysis from "Iced Earth" Point of View



## iced earth (6 March 2010)

Hi , Everybody

*In this topic I want to share my Technical ideas. I would be thankful if you participate and criticize my analyses.*

I've had the same topic in another forum  since 2007.

Best Regards
Mohsen


----------



## weird (7 March 2010)

What return are u expecting from the trade ? 10 % ? Yeah. 

Where is the stop u are placing ?

Ok ... Your BHP trade has now been deleted. Signing off.


----------



## iced earth (7 March 2010)

BHP - AX - 5 MARCH 2010

We can see two upward channel . The white one is longer with sharper slope, the other is in shorter time and with slighter slope.we are at the lower line of the white channel which could be a support line.
===================================================


from 20 days EMA, Momentum and MACD we would see inter signals.

===================================================

TAIO and PARABOLIC SAR show upward trend as well

===================================================

the long term look :


----------



## iced earth (7 March 2010)

weird said:


> What return are u expecting from the trade ? 10 % ? Yeah.
> 
> Where is the stop u are placing ?
> 
> Ok ... Your BHP trade has now been deleted. Signing off.




thsnks for your comment,

Do you think 10 % is low??? actually I am thinking of 50-51  as the target( upper line of white channel, it must be more than 15%. Important thing is the trend is completely upward and we are at the support line and in accordance with the trend...

I would place an SL at 38.6.

 BHP has also strong balance sheet & Income which leave little room for any RISK. the global recovery also would  apply demands for Iron ore, base metals...


----------



## iced earth (12 March 2010)

_*GOLD DAILY - 12 MARCH 2010*_

Possible upward Head & Shoulders in Gold-Daily. First the Right Shoulder should be formed, then the neckline be broken, if these scenarios happen Gold can get 1225 ( as December 2009)


----------



## brty (12 March 2010)

Iced Earth,

You have a theory that trend channels work and observation that BHP is in one. Have you back tested your theory that this will be a money maker?? By this I mean looking/finding hundreds of times stocks are in a channel, finding out what happens after they leave the bottom channel, after you have identified it as a channel. 

In other words does this type of trading result in consistent profits?? Have you tested a different approach with a lower stop loss, say something like putting the position on when the stock reached the $40 level of the larger channel, rather than waiting a few weeks after the event, and having your stop at the $38.60 level??

brty


----------



## iced earth (12 March 2010)

brty said:


> Iced Earth,
> 
> You have a theory that trend channels work and observation that BHP is in one. Have you back tested your theory that this will be a money maker?? By this I mean looking/finding hundreds of times stocks are in a channel, finding out what happens after they leave the bottom channel, after you have identified it as a channel.
> 
> ...




_*Dear brty*_ 

    I've had benefit from channel patterns many times, of course it is not the only pattern and Technical analysis which I am using but channels are my favorites. no doubt that stop loss should be used in the channels ( and all other technical tools) to prevent a disastrous results. But if we are not careful about where we should put our SL , if it is too close, it might be touched and then price starts to rise up again. I have learnt from experience ( Stock market and Forex) that we sholudnt put SL too tight or we would be sorry later on.

_*Regards
Mohsen

*_


----------



## akkopower (13 March 2010)

iced earth said:


> thsnks for your comment,
> 
> Do you think 10 % is low??? actually I am thinking of 50-51  as the target( upper line of white channel, it must be more than 15%. Important thing is the trend is completely upward and we are at the support line and in accordance with the trend...
> 
> ...




hey ice,
just a few of my thoughts.

it seems the stock has risk, dropped almost 12% over 14 trading days or so recently, any sniffles from china/world could do it again and again and..........

19% gain to $51, 8.7% loss to $38.6, getting 2.2:1ish

does look like a good bet if u bought, set sell triggers and sit back for a while. could even be better with a higher stop loss @ 40.4. 

50 being an all time high seems to be a bold sell trigger, might give a lot of resistance could consider selling a bit lower.

The trade could take a while: the last time the stock rose 19% to get here was 8 months ago.

Could be a bit of resistance at $43.5-44.5, which it looks like we just hit. 
My bet will be to buy at 44.6 ish and sell at 47.5ish with a stop loss around 42.5ish (or where the next/ a future turning point is, or maybe even a trailing stop), getting something like, 1.38:1. nowhere near as good as your 2.2:1. mine should be a quick 1 week to 1 month trade.


----------



## Sir Osisofliver (15 March 2010)

Hi Iced,

How much do you know about divergence patterns?

When you are charting channels, it's always good to look at whether there is a bullish or bearish divergence in the stock you are examining.

http://www.aboutcurrency.com/university/fxchartpatterns/bullish_bearish_divergence_pattern.shtml

This is a small piece on divergence from a currency site, but the same principle applies to equity.

Attached is a chart of BHP showing potential divergence.

This doesn't mean that BHP will fall back to $20 overnight, but is indicative to me that the potential for negative news (IE murmurs regarding growth from China), will result in sharp downwards movements.

Cheers

Sir O


----------



## iced earth (20 March 2010)

Sir Osisofliver said:


> Hi Iced,
> 
> How much do you know about divergence patterns?
> 
> ...




Dear Sir Osisofliver

   Thanks for your comment. I know all about divergence between Price and Indicators ( such as RSI , CCI, MOMENTUM,MACD,...)both Normal and Hidden.

And as far as I know in MACD histogram you cant say  you have divergence if the histogram has some lows under zero line ( as your example)...


----------



## iced earth (20 March 2010)

GOLD- 19 MARCH 2010
========================

Possible bearish Head & Shoulders: if the neckline breaks completely the target would be around 1050 (fig1)

Today Gold has touched the neck line ( after India’s Central Bank Unexpectedly Raises Interest Rates ) but it is bot broken yet. ( fig2)


----------



## iced earth (20 March 2010)

Sir Osisofliver said:


> Hi Iced,
> 
> How much do you know about divergence patterns?
> 
> ...




and more importantly your uptrend line should be passed from tops not lows ( as my example at the attachment)

Mohsen


----------



## iced earth (7 April 2010)

AUD/USD Is on edge of breaking a very important long term resistance line. If it continues we should see significant jump in AUD/USD


----------



## tech/a (7 April 2010)

Rising interest rates wont hurt either.


----------



## iced earth (15 April 2010)

oil-WTI, 14 April 2010 :
move in 2  channels and working the white support line
if the blue channel breaks, target around $102
in this case the red channel would be broken as well with target around $120 !!!


----------



## iced earth (20 April 2010)

GOLD - 20 APRIL 2010:

After breaking the neckline,Gold has returned and touched the neck line ( pull back) and now ready to rose again. the Target of this Bullish pattern would be considered around $1230


----------



## tech/a (20 April 2010)

This is one of the most amusing threads I have seen.

The pattern found and evidently identified as a head and shoulders pattern both Bullish AND bearish morphs on a weekly basis it seems.

The poster has no idea how to trade it.

I'm also interested in his response to Sir O
After asking for opinion and getting it it seems he is expert in all forms of analysis and requires no help.

Happy to oblige.


----------



## iced earth (20 April 2010)

I welcome all  opinions and help. 

I also in buy position for Gold. I dont claim that I know everything but I am eager to learn more but I know definitely all patterns and their usages.  

what I answer about definition of Divergence is base on many prominent book ( such as J.Murphy...)

It is not that odd we observe both bearish and bullish H&S in one chart. but the bearish has failed after Gold passed up the neckline once passed down.

_at the end , I am glad that this tread is amused some if not useful._


----------



## iced earth (28 April 2010)

GOLD-27 April 2010

Bullish Head&Shoulders with goal around $ 1230


----------



## iced earth (7 May 2010)

*GOLD-7 May 2010*

_as predicted on 27 April_ , Bullish Head&Shoulders with goal around $ 1230 is completing


----------



## iced earth (12 May 2010)

GOLD-13 MAY 2010 
as predicted before, gold hits the target of HEAD & SHOULDERS (around $12300)


----------



## tech/a (12 May 2010)

Well done
Great when it comes together.

Enjoy your analysis at least it has content.


----------



## iced earth (15 May 2010)

_*wti oil - 15 May 2010:*_

The support line of the blue channel has been broken definitely , the target could be around $ 60 . The red channel is also on the verge of break, this could have a target even lower than the blue one.


----------



## Sir Osisofliver (19 May 2010)

iced earth said:


> thsnks for your comment,
> 
> Do you think 10 % is low??? actually I am thinking of 50-51  as the target( upper line of white channel, it must be more than 15%. Important thing is the trend is completely upward and we are at the support line and in accordance with the trend...
> 
> ...






Sir Osisofliver said:


> Hi Iced,
> 
> How much do you know about divergence patterns?
> *snip*
> ...






iced earth said:


> Dear Sir Osisofliver
> 
> Thanks for your comment. I know all about divergence between Price and Indicators ( such as RSI , CCI, MOMENTUM,MACD,...)both Normal and Hidden.
> 
> And as far as I know in MACD histogram you cant say  you have divergence if the histogram has some lows under zero line ( as your example)...






iced earth said:


> and more importantly your uptrend line should be passed from tops not lows ( as my example at the attachment)
> 
> Mohsen




So how's that BHP divergence working for you?

Cheers

Sir O


----------



## iced earth (20 May 2010)

Dear Sir Osisofliver

Because BHP has fallen doesn't mean your concept of Divergence is right. 

First of all as I said before, for a negative divergence ( normal one not hidden one) you should define your price uptrend line from highs not lows, as I attached as pic 1 for HISTOGRAM MACD and CCI in weekly view , and for HISTOGRAM MACD as you brought here, when you have some negative amounts ( some lows lower than Zero line, as yours) it is not valid and it should not have any lows between highs.

and second it was not divergence that made BHP falls, but breaking the support line of the channel was the main reason ( technically rather than fundamentally which the reason is  Global Economy Recovery doubt) for this downtrend movement of BHP.- attached pic 2

Cheers , Mohsen


----------



## iced earth (21 May 2010)

_*AUD/USD - 20 May 2010*_

will the support line ( The Green One) prevent AUD/USD from further falling???(PIC 1) 

we have also important fibo 38.2 % as a support level for AUS/USD (around 0.81)   , if this cant hold this pair, the next level will be fibo 50 % around 0.77  ( PIC 2)If


----------



## iced earth (21 May 2010)

_*EUR/USD 20 May 2010:*_

the Pair is moving within a downtrend channel(pic 1) 

in weekly view, the pair has passed the long term  support line, we should be careful about this current uptrend as only a possible pull back. (pic 2)


----------



## Sir Osisofliver (21 May 2010)

iced earth said:


> Dear Sir Osisofliver
> 
> Because BHP has fallen doesn't mean your concept of Divergence is right.
> 
> ...




So what happened to your BHP trade? Did you stop out? Did you place a short when it broke your channel?

Enquiring minds want to know.

Cheers

Sir O


----------



## lusk (21 May 2010)

Sir Osisofliver said:


> So how's that BHP divergence working for you?
> 
> Cheers
> 
> Sir O




There was a divergence in the MACD all the way up, would you sell because of this divergence or the trendline being broken?


----------



## Sir Osisofliver (21 May 2010)

lusk said:


> There was a divergence in the MACD all the way up, would you sell because of this divergence or the trendline being broken?




What me personally?

My cost base is too low. I paid $8.50 for BHP back in mid '03 and then averaged up in Late November 2008 at $26.10 With my CG in the postion there is no point in selling my long term holding. 

Instead I shorted the position in January when it was $43.98 - exited on the trailing stop loss at $41.55 and shorted it again at $43 .60 at the beginning of April. 

My analysis leads me to suspect that the fall has not yet finished and my position is still open as the recent countertrend rally did not engage my stop loss. I would not be surprised to see a range between $30 and $29 for the bottoming of this corrective movement in BHP, where-upon I will most likely close out my short position and possibly purchase more BHP for the long-term Hold position.

Cheers

Sir O


----------



## tech/a (21 May 2010)

SO
What do you use for shorting?
Or who?
Why not the index or SPI.


----------



## Sir Osisofliver (21 May 2010)

tech/a said:


> SO
> What do you use for shorting?




CFD's 







> Or who?




MF Global


> Why not the index or SPI.




Short answer = 'coz

Long answer = has to to with periodicity and amplitude of certain sectors when considered against indicie products I can get access to.

But this isn't my thread Tech it's Iced Earths so if you want to know more PM me or start a new thread so we don't derail.

Cheers

Sir O


----------



## iced earth (21 May 2010)

Sir Osisofliver said:


> So what happened to your BHP trade? Did you stop out? Did you place a short when it broke your channel?
> 
> Enquiring minds want to know.
> 
> ...




_*Dear Sir O,*_

   I did not buy BHP, I could not although  I wanted to. I live out of Australia and in My country it is not easy to trade International shares. Also I bought similar mining stock in my country and I sold it when the channel had broken . 

I will move to Australia soon and I want to get familiar with Aussie stock market. and Forums are one of the efficient way for this. so I can exchange our knowledge and experience with other folks like you. 
I am one of the manager of a prominent forum (http://www.farabourse.net/showthread.php?t=888&page=3) in my country and I have been active in stock market and forex more than 3 years . 

by the way I see that you are long term trader, you must apply "Value Investing" for your trade as "W.Buffet"

Cheers
Mohsen


----------



## Wysiwyg (21 May 2010)

Greetings. I am amazed at the number of members who were on that forum today and also that it is in Persian language. An Iranian financial forum Iced Earth? I thought there were restrictions on internet usage in Iran but I wouldn't know for sure.


----------



## Sean K (21 May 2010)

iced earth said:


> _*I am one of the manager of a prominent forum (http://www.*****house.net/showthread.php?t=888&page=3) in my country and I have been active in stock market and forex more than 3 years .
> Cheers
> Mohsen*_



_*
Amazing how this happens.*_


----------



## Wysiwyg (21 May 2010)

iced earth said:


> you should define your price uptrend line from highs not lows
> Cheers , Mohsen



My very first book on trading says this about trend lines ...

"When market action is bullish (rising) the trend line is drawn across across the low points."

"A trend line in a falling market is drawn across peaks of the rallies."

That is word for word but at the end of the day it is whatever tickles ones fancy I suppose.


----------



## iced earth (22 May 2010)

Wysiwyg said:


> Greetings. I am amazed at the number of members who were on that forum today and also that it is in Persian language. An Iranian financial forum Iced Earth? I thought there were restrictions on internet usage in Iran but I wouldn't know for sure.




Dear Wysiwyg

   Yes , as I said that forum is the most prominent forum in Iran related to financial market. There are some censorship ( unfortunately) in Iranian internet access but Internet is very popular among people. 

most young traders share their ideas and trades with others in Forums. If you could log in you would see lots of useful advanced fundamental and technical analysis there.

Best Regards
Mohsen


----------



## iced earth (22 May 2010)

Wysiwyg said:


> My very first book on trading says this about trend lines ...
> 
> "When market action is bullish (rising) the trend line is drawn across across the low points."
> 
> ...




Dear Wysiwyg :

     Your are absolutely right about uptrend , uptrend will be define with cross the low points.  but what i said was about negative divergence : when price has higher top compare to the previous top but indicators ( such as RSI,CCI,MOMENTUM,MACD,...) has the top lower than its previous one, ( it can not have the new top higher than previous one and it shows that price can not prevail uptrend and should have some correction) 

I have attached some example of negative Divergence ( the 3d and 4th pics are  picked from famous book :" Technical analysis of the financial market: by John Murphy")

Hope it helps


----------



## Sir Osisofliver (24 May 2010)

iced earth said:


> _*Dear Sir O,*_
> 
> by the way I see that you are long term trader, you must apply "Value Investing" for your trade as "W.Buffet"
> 
> ...




It's a part of what I do. I've recognised that the market is a cyclical beast for a while now and that there are periods of time where the effective holding cost for a long-term "blue-chip" assets is nil. Setting up a portfolio that doesn't take up too much of my time that chugs away and doesn't add to my grey hairs is relatively easy.  I also maintain an amount of capital that I use for a short-term trading strategy under a systematic basis. I usually devote my spare time (if I'm lucky enough to have spare time) in testing strategies and attempting to improve my system.


Cheers

Sir O


----------



## iced earth (25 May 2010)

_*oil- WTI : 25 MAY 2010*_

   As been mentioned before, the short time rise in oil was only a pull back after breaking the channel. the goal would be around 60$


----------



## iced earth (25 May 2010)

_*EUR/USD : 25 MAY 2010:*_

As predicted before( https://www.aussiestockforums.com/forums/showpost.php?p=556153&postcount=27) , the pair is moving in a bearish channel, also in weekly view , we have a pull back after breaking the valid long term resistance line.


----------



## iced earth (5 June 2010)

EUR/USD: 2 June 2010:

   The pair could not break up the upper line of the bearish channel (many times touched it, make it more valid) - now we can see a bearish triangle has formed within this channel. The goal of this tri could be at the lower line of the channel (pic 1)

in weekly view the long term resistance line is been break down ( after one short pull back as I posted above) - now we can see the most important resistance is the low of Aug 2005 around 1.16    (pic 2) - this target is the same as the bearish triangle and channel target as mentioned above.


----------



## iced earth (21 June 2010)

_*GOLD 21 JUNE 2010:*_

   Gold is braking the green resistance line, so we could see a considerable rise in this precious metal price...


----------



## iced earth (12 August 2010)

*Oil WTI - 12 Aug 2010:*

      The upward channel in 4Hr been broken, the target would be around 74 $


----------



## iced earth (24 August 2010)

*Oil WTI - 24 Aug 2010:*

Another upward channel in Daily Graph been broken again, the target would be around 66 $

on 12 Aug 2010 while Oil was trading 78$ , it was predicted that oil will slip to 74 $ ( https://www.aussiestockforums.com/forums/showpost.php?p=573835&postcount=44)


----------



## ginar (24 August 2010)

iced earth said:


> *Oil WTI - 24 Aug 2010:*
> 
> Another upward channel in Daily Graph been broken again, the target would be around 66 $
> 
> on 12 Aug 2010 while Oil was trading 78$ , it was predicted that oil will slip to 74 $ ( https://www.aussiestockforums.com/forums/showpost.php?p=573835&postcount=44)




Love your elegant simple charts and analysis , we have similar methodology

........... cheers


----------



## iced earth (24 August 2010)

ginar said:


> Love your elegant simple charts and analysis , we have similar methodology
> 
> ........... cheers




Thanks a lot ginar,
  after years of analyses and trading I came to this conclusion that the most practical method in technical analysis is the most obvious and simplest ones. we might confuse ourselves with complicated charts and indicators but at the end simple pattern will work better. fortunately in stock market and specially in FX market we can wait to observe and catch those simple working pattern and trade on them...if we become able to combine this with Money Management we can enjoy nice results... I am happy we have similar methodology...

Cheers
Mohsen


----------



## iced earth (17 September 2010)

_*GOLD- WEEKLY CHART:18 SEPT 2010:*_

Bullish H&S with the target around  1331 $. Also uptrend channel with higher target...


----------



## tech/a (17 September 2010)

Having a look at some past charts in particular the EURUSD youve had a bad run


----------



## iced earth (17 September 2010)

tech/a said:


> Having a look at some past charts in particular the EURUSD youe had a bad run




Technical analysis cant and wont be  100% certain, just give you  higher probability, that's way Stop Loss should be put as insurance in all situation. lets say if 70% of T.A targets will happen and you have a logical money management , you will be a winner at the end, that is my strategy...


----------



## tech/a (17 September 2010)

iced earth said:


> Technical analysis cant and wont be  100% certain, just give you  higher probability, that's way Stop Loss should be put as insurance in all situation. lets say if 70% of T.A targets will happen and you have a logical money management , you will be a winner at the end, that is my strategy...




Agree

But I do note that your "style" is purely Technical Trend/Channel and Support and resistance based---nothing wrong here but wonder if the introduction of Price range and reading of volume might not help find more reliable points of entry and exit---thats my strategy.


----------



## iced earth (29 September 2010)

_*AUD/USD: 29 SEPT 2010:*_

       DAILY VIEW: the pair is moving in an uptrend channel and is near the upper (resistance) line of this channel . (pic 1)

WEEKLY VIEW: The long term resistance line is been passed, this is very important for this pair and we could be witnessed stronger AUD against USD in long term. (pic 2)


----------



## weird (29 September 2010)

You are visually finding trend lines based on hindsight data, there are so many other trend lines that could have been drawn moving forward on past data that would look nothing like your current trend line.

One of the reasons why this method will never become a mechanical method, because computers will find what actually is, not what you hope it will detect with 'future' major trend lines.

Look at individual swings bars, before the ones you have conveniently highlighted.


----------



## iced earth (29 September 2010)

Thanks Weird for your comment, But these support resistance lines are upon past of course but the past that happened not what I wish them to be...

no doubt that long term resistance line is been passed up , this is a very strong indication in technical , if we believe in technical of course...


----------



## weird (29 September 2010)

No worries, but no doubt, my current post will be deleted, and I will be banned, as I have detected yet again an underlying thing on this forum. Bye, and good luck.


----------



## iced earth (22 October 2010)

HVN : 21.10.10 (weekly chart) 

The share could not pass the resistance line (white) and recently  broke down the support line (Purple) and now testing Fibo 50% . if this can not hold it we should expect the next support level at around 2.96$ (Fibo 61.8 %) Momentum also is near important 0 level and passing down this level could cause more downtrend (Fig 1)


from another point of view share price is testing another  support line (yellow). this line can be Neck Line for tilted Head & Shoulders pattern. If the line passed down the target could b around 1.8$ which is the lowest  price of HVN in FEB 2009.  (Fig 2)


----------



## iced earth (24 October 2010)

*CALTEX (CTX) -22.10.10 :*

The price is testing the white line which acts as a resistance line, this line is also part of a symmetrical triangle. 
if this line broken up successfully we would anticipate further upward movement and target cloud be up to red line (more than 20 $)


----------



## tminus (24 October 2010)

iced earth said:


> *CALTEX (CTX) -22.10.10 :*
> this line is also part of a symmetrical triangle.
> if this line broken up successfully we would anticipate further upward movement




Aren't symmetrical triangles continuation patterns, so shouldn't CTX continue a down trend?


----------



## iced earth (24 October 2010)

tminus said:


> Aren't symmetrical triangles continuation patterns, so shouldn't CTX continue a down trend?




thanks for your comment tminus:

That's right, Symmetrical triangles are mostly  continuation patterns, but in some cases could be a reversal pattern as well ( opposite is true for H&S) .(example in fig2)

If this symmetrical triangle becomes bearish, should pass down the lower line of the Triangle and in this case it will be very close to the apex and wont be valid anymore...

another matter which gives hope  we might have uptrend movement is that after passing up the resistance (white) line we had a temporary down movement which might be only a pull back before resuming the up trend again...(fig 1)

anyway we have to wait for price above 13 $ then buy (if we dont have it already) ...


----------



## tminus (31 October 2010)

Thanks for the information, I forgot all about the apex. Similar to what you pointed out happened with MSFT, where the symmetrical triangle became a reversal pattern. It even pulled back to line, and now is acting as support.


----------



## iced earth (5 November 2010)

HVN - 5.11.10

As it was predicted on 21.10.10 (https://www.aussiestockforums.com/forums/showpost.php?p=587249&postcount=56)  price fallen below fibo 50% and now we should wait for the next resistance level at fibo 61.8% (around $2.95) (Fig 2)


also the neckline (Tilted Head and Shoulder pattern) is break down , the target of this pattern could be around 1.8 $ ,which is the lowest price of HVN in FEB 2009. (Fig 1)


----------



## iced earth (15 November 2010)

_*AUD/USD - 15 NOV 2010:*_

As it s been mentioned on 29 sept 2010 
https://www.aussiestockforums.com/forums/showpost.php?p=583169&postcount=52

 the long term resistance line has been passed up, this is very important for this pair and we could be witnessed stronger AUD against USD in long term. now after AUD/USD became more than 1 , we can see that the  pair reaches the important 1.618 Fibo (pic 2) 

also negative divergence between MACD Histogram and Pair and touch the  upper line (resistance) of the upward channel. we could expect correction until it touches uper line (support) of this channel. If this line wont be able to (I guess it will)  hold it we might see AUD/USD near 0.91 again (pic 1)


----------



## iced earth (27 November 2010)

_*GOLD :26 Nov 2010:*_

After negative divergence between price and MACD HISTOGRAM , Gold started correction. now forming the bearish Head $ Shoulders is possible, if the neckline will be broken we might see gold around $1230


----------



## tech/a (28 November 2010)

Enjoy your analysis---someone's watching!


----------



## Mr Z (29 November 2010)

H&S needs the correct volume pattern to confirm its validity. I don't see it in GLD FWIW.


----------



## iced earth (8 January 2011)

HVN - 8.01.11

As it was predicted on 21.10.10 (https://www.aussiestockforums.com/for...9&postcount=56) price fallen below fibo 50% and unfortunately resistance level at fibo 61.8% (around $2.95) could not hold the falling . next resistance level will be fibo 78.6% around $ 2.44(which is not as Important as Fibo 50% nor 61.8 %)




in daily diagram we are still receiving the "stay out signal" after "Exit signal" around $ 3.7 (price under EMA 20 and momentum under zero line) 




also the neckline (Tilted Head and Shoulder pattern) is break down , the target of this pattern could be around 1.8 $ ,which is the lowest price of HVN in FEB 2009 .


----------



## iced earth (8 January 2011)

CALTEX (CTX) -08.01.11 :

As it was posted on 22.10.10 when price was around $12. (https://www.aussiestockforums.com/forums/showthread.php?t=18974&page=3) the price passed up the resistance line (upper line of the symmetrical triangle and upper line of the downtrend channel. now the price testing $15(%25 above $12) . the targets of triangle and upper line of the downtrend channel are above $20





but is short term we might have divergence between price , RSI and Momentum and a correction. (the gray line and EMA 20 will be the resistance levels)


----------



## iced earth (4 February 2011)

CTX- 3 Feb 2011:

as it was predicted the divergence between price and RSI and CCI caused halt in price rising and we saw the correction. in short time view there is a possibility we have a Bullish Head and Shoulders. but we must wait for forming the right shoulder and then breaking the neck line with strong volume, then the target would be around 15.40




in longer term after successful break up the triangle and channel we now have important fibo 32.8 around 14.60 , the next resistance will be fibo 50 % around 17.15 . but the final target would be the previous highest price around $28.


----------



## iced earth (5 February 2011)

*SUGAR -ICE Futures (US)  5Feb 2011:*

In long term of view we have a uptrend channel and sugar is struggling with the resistance line of the channel. If sugar breaks this channel we might have amazing target around 80 (Cent/Pound)




in weekly view after we had buy signal (20 EMA, momentum, MACD -Signal) we haven't had a sell signal.




but in short time divergence between price and RSI didn't let sugar go further. also we have an Important support line(White). today sugar showed positive reaction to this line .




Cyclone Yasi and the 50% cut in Aussie sugar outlet should be considered as Australia is the third major sugar exporter. http://www.businessweek.com/news/20...gar-area-may-lose-50-of-output-potential.html


----------



## iced earth (10 February 2011)

CTX-10.02.11

As it was predicted above, CTX could form the Left Shoulder , if the neckline will passed up successfully the target of this Head and Shoulder pattern would be around $ 15.40


----------



## iced earth (13 February 2011)

*BHP - 12.02.11:*

BHP is moving in a upward channel. in 47.20 it touches the ceiling. 




after breaking up of the red resistance line, price might move up to the middle line of the  Andrews Pitch-Fork.


----------



## iced earth (13 February 2011)

_*CBA (COMMONWEALTH BANK OF AUSTRALIA) - 12.02.11:*_

The share filled the gap (from $ 24 to $ 60) but couldn't passed up that level. we could see the possibility of forming of a Cup and Handle pattern. the target of the pattern could be around $95. 

but first the important resistance level of around $60 should be successfully passed up.


----------



## iced earth (17 February 2011)

_*CTX-17.02.11*_

As it was predicted above, CTX  forms Head and Shoulders pattern, Today the neckline breaks up with increased volume.  the target of this Head and Shoulder pattern would be around $ 15.50




in longer term view the downtrend channel is broken with target above $20 




also there is a Andrew Pitch Fork and the price after passing of the middle line will have the upper line as s resistance line.


----------



## iced earth (17 February 2011)

_*Gold-17.02.11*_

Gold is still moving on Bullish trend which started from 22.10.2008 (price $682) . the blue uptrend support line and the internal red line didn't allow gold fall below $1308


----------



## iced earth (21 February 2011)

_*CTX - 21.02.11*_

as predicted in previous posts after forming the right shoulder, the neckline passed up and the price reached 15.33 . the target of the pattern was predicted around 15.50




but the price around 15.50 has middle line of Andrew Pitchfork as a serious resistance line. maybe it can not break this line at once. but when it will, we might see price increase to the upper line of the pitch fork.


----------



## iced earth (4 March 2011)

_*BHP - 03-03-11*_

Share is moving in a upward channel. the up line is its resistance and its lower is support line.




in a longer term view , it has passed up the blue resistance line but couldn't pass up the red resistance line. now the blue one could play as a support line.


----------



## iced earth (8 March 2011)

_*Copper - 08.03.11*_

copper has fallen these two recent trading days. now copper has two resistance line in front of it.




if those mentioned resistance lines cant hold copper and the neck line of this possible head and shoulder pass down we might see copper fall around 3.8 USd/lb.




in longer point of view we have a bullish head and shoulder with the incredible target around 6.1 USd/lb.


----------



## iced earth (12 March 2011)

_*Copper - 11.03.11*_

copper has broken the neck line of the bearish Head and Shoulders. target is around 3.8 us$/lb 




in this picture we see two resistance lines couldn't hold copper cant hold copper 





in longer point of view we have a bullish head and shoulder with the incredible target around 6.1 USd/lb. ( around 3.8 it might touch the resistance line and start a new bullish wave .


----------



## iced earth (12 March 2011)

*SUGAR -ICE Futures (US) 11 March 2011:*

As it was mentioned above, divergence between sugar and RSI caused fall in sugar price. it is also has broken the resistance line .




In long term of view we have a uptrend channel and sugar could not  break this channel .


----------



## iced earth (30 March 2011)

Copper - 30.03.11

copper has formed left and right shoulders , if  the neck line passed down , the target is around 4.130 us$/lb


----------



## Mr Z (31 March 2011)

You are neglecting volume, it is THE critical element in an H&S topping pattern. It is also out of context.


----------



## iced earth (31 March 2011)

Mr Z said:


> You are neglecting volume, it is THE critical element in an H&S topping pattern. It is also out of context.




Thanks for comment Mr Z. 

I consider the volume, but in bearish patterns volume has much less important than bullish patterns...


----------



## iced earth (31 March 2011)

copper is forming pullback to the neck line , the target might be around 4.130


----------



## Mr Z (1 April 2011)

iced earth said:


> Thanks for comment Mr Z.
> 
> I consider the volume, but in bearish patterns volume has much less important than bullish patterns...




In a head and shoulders it is the defining feature, without the correct volume pattern it is not an H&S. The price shape is quite common, the supporting volume pattern is not so common.


----------



## iced earth (1 April 2011)

Mr Z said:


> In a head and shoulders it is the defining feature, without the correct volume pattern it is not an H&S. The price shape is quite common, the supporting volume pattern is not so common.




somehow I agree, specially in bullish patterns, in bearish patterns it has less importance, (Gravity effect). 

John Murphy: page 108...



----------------------------------------
I believe nothing in technical is 100% sure, even the h&s with not much volume, still is H&S but with a little chance to complete rather than H&S with high volume... 

Thanks for comment again


----------



## Mr Z (1 April 2011)

You have not picked a market top, as I said the context is wrong. Volume is critical to H&S, Mr Murphy is in err. The H&S shape is very common in bull markets and typically represents no more than a continuation of the up trend. H&S at its heart is a simple test of and break of support, for it to be a powerful pattern you need the confirmation in the volume pattern which gives you the insight to how the bulk of traders are feeling about the likelihood of the support level holding. Take away the volume and you have as simple support test and or break.... that can be any shape at all.


----------



## tech/a (2 April 2011)

Mr Z said:


> You have not picked a market top, as I said the context is wrong. Volume is critical to H&S, Mr Murphy is in err. The H&S shape is very common in bull markets and typically represents no more than a continuation of the up trend. H&S at its heart is a simple test of and break of support, for it to be a powerful pattern you need the confirmation in the volume pattern which gives you the insight to how the bulk of traders are feeling about the likelihood of the support level holding. Take away the volume and you have as simple support test and or break.... that can be any shape at all.




Seems Martin Pring is also in err.
He also believes volume on the down swing *breakout* of a H&S pattern is not critical.
*HOWEVER*
The breakout of a bottom reversal should "Ideally" show a sharp *DECLINE* in volume *INTO* the shoulder and a sharp *INCREASE* to break out.
PG 110 Martin Pring on Price Patterns.


As Ice says still an H&S and nothing---even ideal patterns aren't guaranteed to play out as expected.
It is a setup not to be ignored though!


----------



## Mr Z (2 April 2011)

It is more the total volume pattern than specifically the volume on the downswing. The context is also important, the original chart I responded to has the H&S after an interim top. 

Price makes any number of patterns bouncing along support, to assign an H&S shaped pattern any significance over and above the others without the supporting volume pattern is to reduce the patterns usefulness. Correctly formed H&S's are not that common and are a powerful pattern, why muddy the water with what you wish to see? We are simply looking at price testing support.

Kinda surprised Edwards and Magee have not been quoted, they even have it as a continuation pattern... which is more in the context of the chart posted and commented on. Personally I think they where desperate for something to write about at that point, not a pattern I would really be trusting, but to each their own.

But what the heck, I have seen every hack Internet T/A and his dog calling H&Ss in gold and silver this year so why not, yeah its a potential H&S.... I prefer trading the 'horny camel' formation myself.



CYA.


----------



## captain black (2 April 2011)

Mr Z said:


> .. I prefer trading the 'horny camel' formation myself.




Lol! 

Please don't post a chart of that pattern....


----------



## tech/a (2 April 2011)

> I prefer trading the 'horny camel' formation myself.




Yes agree I find the single hump far more reliable---the twin hump is overrated in my view.


----------



## iced earth (8 April 2011)

*thanks Mr.Z and tech/a for sharing their views...*



========================================
Oil (WTI)   07.04.11

Oil is passing up the important 61.8% Fibo and next resistance will be 78.6% Fibo (around 123$) 




in monthly chart, after we had the buy signal we haven't had sell signal




Oil is also testing upper line of the upward channel , if it passes up successfully the target will be around 140$


----------



## iced earth (6 May 2011)

_*AUD/USD :05.05.11*_

we had divergence between 4hr price and RSI and MCDI Histogram. also pair has broken the support line. 




in daily chart, we also have divergence between price and MACD .




but the most important reason for preventing pair for increasing above 1.10 was the upper (resistance) line of Andrew pitchfork in monthly chart.




the first support level is around 1.05 (fibo %38.2)


----------



## iced earth (18 June 2011)

*CTX - 17-06-2011*

CTX is located in a very important situation, it has the green (upper line of the channel) and red support lines. the target for channel and shown head$shoulders have the same target and the recent drop would be considered a pullback for H&S in weekly chart.




also the shown Andrew pitch fork shows the support line for the price. 




in Linear chart we have the Head and shoulders with target around $11.00 (which we are near to this target) at this target price would touch  the valid and important support line (which has formed the lower line of the channel)




around 11.00$ (or even the current price) we have strong supports , if these supports cant hold the price , more severe short should be anticipated .


----------



## iced earth (5 August 2011)

*Oil-WTI : 4 August 2011*

Oil-WTI is in a very sensitive situation, if the lower line of the channel (support line) and psychological price level at $90 cannot hold the short and channel break down , the target of the short would be around $70.


----------



## iced earth (5 August 2011)

iced earth said:


> HVN : 21.10.10 (weekly chart)
> 
> The share could not pass the resistance line (white) and recently  broke down the support line (Purple) and now testing Fibo 50% . if this can not hold it we should expect the next support level at around 2.96$ (Fibo 61.8 %) Momentum also is near important 0 level and passing down this level could cause more downtrend (Fig 1)
> 
> ...




It was 10 month ago(price that day was $3.39) when in my TA I predicted the target of around $1.8 for Harvey Norman. Today it was trading $1.89


----------



## iced earth (9 August 2011)

BHP-08 August 2011:

BHP could not passed up the $50.00 (which was the previous peak and resistance level) .now the upward channel has been broken down and the target is around $32.00. But from the Fibo levels, the first support line will be around $35.00 (Fibo 50%) and then around $32.00 (Fibo 32.8%) which is the target of the channel too




From the 20 days EMA , momentum and MACD the sell signal has been sent. Until buy signal not being seen, we cannot be sure about continuous bullish trend.




Also from this picture we could see the bullish Head & Shoulders with the target again around $32.00


----------



## iced earth (9 August 2011)

iced earth said:


> *Oil-WTI : 4 August 2011*
> 
> Oil-WTI is in a very sensitive situation, if the lower line of the channel (support line) and psychological price level at $90 cannot hold the short and channel break down , the target of the short would be around $70.
> 
> View attachment 43837




9 August , 12:46 pm WTI CRUDE FUTURE = $76.670 (Not too far from $70.00)


----------



## iced earth (9 August 2011)

*Gold : 9 August 2009*

The shorter channel has been passed up successfully with the target around $1900 which is coincidence with the upper line of the longer channel




in monthly chart, we see a continues upward pattern which form kind of a bullish channel, the most important resistance of this channel is the upper line which gold could reach it around $1900-$2000


----------



## iced earth (11 August 2011)

HVN(Harvy Norman) 11 August 2011:
========================================

After head &Shoulder pattern (which was predicted 21.10.10 in this topic when share was trading 3.39) Share price reached $1.8.




Now we can see positive divergence between price and CCI 




More importantly we can see a very strong support line around $1.8 and it could be a considerable buy at this level ( putting the stop loss below this support line)


----------



## iced earth (12 August 2011)

AYN (ALCYONE RES LTD) 11 August 2011:
===================================
we could see the positive hidden divergence between the price and CCI which might cause the price rising. 




but if  it breaks down the lower line of the channel (support line), the target would be around $0.04.


----------



## iced earth (13 August 2011)

Silver & AYN - 12 August 2011
================================
Silver might have Head& Shoulder pattern, but first should have the right shoulder completed and then break up the neckline with a considerable volume, but if it happens , Silver should be again around $50.00.




if it won’t happen and silver goes down the red line is a valid support line to hold it back.




the compare of the Silver price with AYN is interesting. Ayn shows a very strong correlation to Silver price and also has the same pattern , so to follow the AYN we should follow Silver price movement.(Yellow colour is Silver,Purple is AYN)




============================================================
Silver is and interesting commodity, it has both characteristics of Investment and Industrial usage, (Unlike Gold which is almost all Investment purposes) so sometimes it has not the same pattern as gold...


----------



## iced earth (16 August 2011)

TLS(TELSTRA):15 AUGUST 2011
================================
In Telstra we are in a very important situation, we see at this price , TLS has two resistance line:

1- is a shorter term channel, which has target around3.60 (if the upper line of the channels passed up successfully)




2- there is another longer term channel which has the target around $4.00




and at this price at long term view, TLS would reaches the top of the long term bearish channel


----------



## iced earth (20 August 2011)

*Silver - 19 August 2011*
================================
Silver is braking the neck line of the  Head& Shoulders pattern, if monday silver closes high with a good volume, target could be  around $50.00 .


----------



## isplicer (21 August 2011)

Hey everyone! After reading, reading, reading, watching and learning for the past few weeks, as a beginner, I'm both excited (and rather anxious) to present my first try at technical analysis (NEN):

http://i53.tinypic.com/1iobuv.jpg

Please do let me know what you think! What could I have included, what I've needlessly added in, if my analysis is rubbish, etc =). 

Thank you!

EDIT: Have I missed an obvious head and shoulders reversal pattern, with the head forming on the fifth of July? Could that apply here?


----------



## tech/a (21 August 2011)

Your basically forming a chart commentary.
You need your analysis to come to a conclusion.
While past history creates a map the map must have a destination.


----------



## isplicer (21 August 2011)

tech/a said:


> Your basically forming a chart commentary.
> You need your analysis to come to a conclusion.
> While past history creates a map the map must have a destination.




Thanks for your input, much appreciated . I'll definitely keep that in mind.

Actually, the line that I drew at the edge of the chart with a question mark next to it is what I expect the stock to do (breakout from the wedge). Do you think this is a valid conclusion given my earlier commentary?

Another likely scenario is that a head and shoulders pattern is forming, which is exactly opposite to what I concluded... confused 

Thanks again for taking the time to help me out =)


----------



## Chalea (21 August 2011)

isplicer said:


> EDIT: Have I missed an obvious head and shoulders reversal pattern, with the head forming on the fifth of July? Could that apply here?
> Another likely scenario is that a head and shoulders pattern is forming, which is exactly opposite to what I concluded... confused




Hi isplicer,

Check the weekly if the daily confuses 

SP needs to close below 31c to call it a double top, (target approx 15c).

For now, the uptrend's over & longer term indicators have signalled & now confirmed a change in momentum direction, (confirming the trendline break).

Click


----------



## tech/a (21 August 2011)

Briefly
Double bottom strong support.
This is in a corrective pattern so limited up side and limited downside
So I think you've got it pretty right.
In the short term I'd be looking to see the bottom tested.


----------



## isplicer (21 August 2011)

Chalea said:


> Hi isplicer,
> 
> Check the weekly if the daily confuses
> 
> ...




Thanks a lot for your contribution Chelea. A few quick clarifications if I may. I'm not quite sure what you meant by "SP needs to close below 31c to call it a double top, ". Where/when did this sub-31c close need to occur?

Regarding the above, I had a read of this rather comprehensive guide on what they entail and how to identify them: http://stockcharts.com/school/doku....t_analysis:chart_patterns:double_top_reversal

After reading that, I doubt that the two highs we saw in early May and early July can be part of the 'double top' pattern - the two tops are not very similar (they are a good 9% apart). Also, the decline from the second peak wasn't on expanding volume like the above guide requires.. and of course, the neckline of this possible double top was indeed tested after the 'second peak' (early Aug) but the support held and there was a substantial rebound. I don't think we have a double top reversal on our hands...? What do you think? Is my reasoning here correct? 

Also, regarding your comment about the bearish divergence between price and RSI, could you please clarify? You've said that if the RSI gets lower as new highs are formed, then it's a bearish signal. My (rather elemental) understanding of RSI is that it indicates how overbought or oversold a security is. It thus seems logical to conclude that if new highs correspond to LOWER RSI's, then it means that even though new highs are being formed, the lower RSI's are saying that the stock isn't being overbought, despite the new highs (doesn't that make it bullish?) If the RSI was getting HIGHER as the price got higher, that would seem bearish to me as the new highs are corresponding to the RSI displaying an overbought signal (that is, the new highs are a result of being overbought, suggesting a reversal) I'm really sorry for the jumble, I hope what I just wrote is intelligible =).

Thanks a lot guys!


----------



## isplicer (21 August 2011)

tech/a said:


> In the short term I'd be looking to see the bottom tested.




Tech/a, is that because we might possibly have a bearish head/shoulders reversal pattern on our hands? It's obviously not a double top, and it can't be a double bottom as there was an UPTREND before the two troughs (a double bottom reverses a DOWNTREND). Perhaps it can indeed be a H/S pattern? 

https://lh5.googleusercontent.com/-.../AAAAAAAABY4/4--RYOz557Y/s1600/Untitled-1.jpg

It fits in with the information given here shockingly well: 
http://stockcharts.com/school/doku...._analysis:chart_patterns:head_and_shoulders_t

If it's true, we have a target of 15c.


----------



## tech/a (21 August 2011)

I think it only fair on "iced earth" 
To take discussion of anything un related to his thread elsewhere!


----------



## isplicer (21 August 2011)

tech/a said:


> I think it only fair on "iced earth"
> To take discussion of anything un related to his thread elsewhere!




Of course, how silly of me. I'll start a new thread in the beginners lounge shortly and move my posts there.

Thanks!


----------



## isplicer (21 August 2011)

tech/a said:


> I think it only fair on "iced earth"
> To take discussion of anything un related to his thread elsewhere!




Moved the discussion to a more appropriate place: https://www.aussiestockforums.com/forums/showthread.php?t=23328&p=653634&posted=1#post653634
 Would greatly appreciate your input tech/a, chalea and others =).

Apologies to the original thread creator for the little thread hijack =). Moderators, please feel free to clean this thread up if you feel that it's necessary.

Regards,
S


----------



## iced earth (22 August 2011)

isplicer said:


> Moved the discussion to a more appropriate place: https://www.aussiestockforums.com/forums/showthread.php?t=23328&p=653634&posted=1#post653634
> Would greatly appreciate your input tech/a, chalea and others =).
> 
> Apologies to the original thread creator for the little thread hijack =). Moderators, please feel free to clean this thread up if you feel that it's necessary.
> ...




Hi Isplicer, good start, wish you luck...


----------



## iced earth (22 August 2011)

Aud/USD:22-08-2011

In daily chart we had a double top which reached the target around 0.993.now pair has the middle green dotted line as a resistance line, which was a support line before was broken down.




In weekly chart (logarithmic) , we have a Andrew Pitchfork , which the upper line acts as a resistance line and there is a red support line and if it breaks down we might see the pair get lower and the white dotted line and then middle line of pitch for are the next support lines.




Also in monthly (Linear) charts we are seeing the pair movement in a Andrew Pitchfork and the upper line is a very strong resistance level for the pair and there is a green support line which didn’t let pair fall less than 0.993 and if this support line breaks down the next support line would be middle of the pitchfork.




But if we study the monthly charts, we could see that the pair still has a bullish trend, (pair is above EMA 20 , Momentum above 0 and MACD above signal, and whenever price get in touch with EMA20 and Momentum to 0 and MACD to signal we would have support levels and if these be broken down we might have a long term downtrend.It means as long as we have stay in signal we might see longterm pattern of AUD/USD bullish.


----------



## iced earth (11 September 2011)

Technical Analysis of HVN(Harvy Norman): 11 sept 2011:

The price is moving in a channel and now has touched the upper line, if it could scape up of the upper line the target would be $2.50 if not the lower line would act as  the support line.
Also EMA20 , momentum and MACD has sent buy signal  




In this picture we have 3 resistance lines (red line is short term, blue line is middle term and green is longer term)



Tio and parabolic SAR shows uptrend in HVN


----------



## iced earth (20 September 2011)

HVN-20 SEPT 2011:

HVN could not pass up the upper (resistance) line of the channel, now it is near to the lower (support) line of the channel which could halt downtrend of HVN.


----------



## Tysonboss1 (20 September 2011)

Hi iced earth,

Is that Warren Buffett in your avatar, it seems a bit strange for someone so focused on ta to have that.


----------



## iced earth (21 September 2011)

Tysonboss1 said:


> Hi iced earth,
> 
> Is that Warren Buffett in your avatar, it seems a bit strange for someone so focused on ta to have that.




Hi Tysonboss1

yes, that's him. I like him a lot and I like and respect and use fundamental Analysis as well.
It is a pitty that Warren is not a TA believer.

If we could combine thses two each other we could get the best results (Technofunamental)

My strategy is to follow companies with good fundamental and the best entering pint would be determined by TA.
=============
By the way the lower line of the channel seems start working


----------



## Tysonboss1 (21 September 2011)

iced earth said:


> It is a pitty that Warren is not a TA believer.




Warren did spend time on TA in his early years, But completely abandoned it when he studied under Ben Graham at college

He believes that dedicating any part of his thinking to TA is just distracting him from his core work of security analysis, Warrens Hero Ben Graham also distained TA.

The opening chaptor of bens book jumps straight into ditching ta.


----------



## iced earth (22 September 2011)

Tysonboss1 said:


> Warren did spend time on TA in his early years, But completely abandoned it when he studied under Ben Graham at college
> 
> He believes that dedicating any part of his thinking to TA is just distracting him from his core work of security analysis, Warrens Hero Ben Graham also distained TA.
> 
> The opening chaptor of bens book jumps straight into ditching ta.





I know
I have read this book and another famous books of Ben Graham,they are precious...also Warren only accept Daw theory and Elliot waving


----------



## iced earth (22 September 2011)

AYN-22 Sept 2011:

Investors should be careful for this channel, with considering the Silver price around $37.00 , the lower line of channel might be broken...


----------



## iced earth (24 September 2011)

GOLD-23 SEPT 2011
================================

Gold in daily charts touched the top line of the channel and now the lower line of the channel would be consider a valid support level




in monthly charts, also we see gold touched the top line of the channel and if the mentioned daily charts (lower line) could not hold the gold , the red line and EMA 20 could be the next support level


----------



## iced earth (27 September 2011)

Gold-27 Sept 2011:

Gold as predicted touched the support line at around 1550 and bounced back.


----------



## iced earth (5 October 2011)

AUD/USD: 4-10-2011
================================
As I mentioned before the upper line of pitch fork acted as very strong resistance line and the pair couldn’t pass up over it around 1.10 and started to fall.
Also the support line (Red line) could not halt the fall and now the strong support line would be consider the middle line of the pitch fork. Also around this support we have the green line would be acted as support line too




In daily chart also we are seeing the pair is touching the middle line of the pitch fork. it seems the logarithm charts is more valid in this case




the ugly look of the pair (not ugly at all for our exporters)in monthly chart is that we are seeing the sell signal from momentum, EMA 20 and MACD/SIGNAL and as we could see the last time we had sell signal (white circle) in 2008 the pair went below 0.65 .


----------



## iced earth (6 October 2011)

BSL (BlueScope Steel Limited) : 05-10-2011
==================================
BSL broke down two major support line and as the result touched as low as $0.635




now we are seeing the + divergence between the price and CCI and RSI , also we could see price moves up the EMA 20 days which will be a buy signal. The most important resistance of this upward move would be the blow dotted line




Another positive about technical of BSL is that in monthly chart we see + divergence between the price and CCI which would move the price higher


----------



## iced earth (11 October 2011)

JBH (JB Hi Fi)- 10.10.2011
==================================
Price has been corrected as far as %61.8 fibo ratio:




More importantly JBH has touched its valid  longterm support line, 




normally this support line should hold price from falling but if not we would see more downtrend from this Australia's Largest Home Entertainment Retailer


----------



## iced earth (11 October 2011)

HVN - 10.10.2011
=========================
HVN is moving in a upward channel and now is touching the upper line of the channel which might cause a little halt in rising 




but important thing is that HVN has been passed up the resistance line (green) and the possible correction would be just a pull back to this resistance line


----------



## iced earth (21 October 2011)

MQG(MACQUARIE GROUP LTD):20-10-211
=========================================
In a weekly chart, price touches the blue dotted line which acts as resistance line(this line was the support line but when passed down , now is the resistance and the recent upward might be just a pullback) . also 20EMA and Momentum 0 could be considered as resistance level.




But in daily chart, there is a possibility of Head and Shoulders pattern, but 1st we should see the right shoulder and then the neck line should be passed up with a good volume then , then the target could be around 30.00


----------



## iced earth (29 October 2011)

TA of MQG 29/10/2011:

In this picture we can see that the green resistance line is passed up. 




If the price will manage to be closed higher Monday we would say that the neckline of the Head & Shoulders been passed up successfully and the target could be around $30.00. Also the volume is higher which is a very important when share passes up the neckline.




In a longer term the neckline is part of the resistance line (green) which should be passed up successfully for having the upward trend.


----------



## iced earth (30 October 2011)

TA of JBH 30-10-11
==========================

as I said before share had been touched the long-term support line around $14.00 which was at fibo 61.8% too. Also it has the horizontal support line (the green) which once was the resistance line of the share but when sp has been passed it up successfully now is acting as the support line.

But sp around $17.00 is facing the horizontal resistance level (peak in 2007-blue) and also the lower (red) line of the channel. if share would manage to pass these resistance levels we could see the sp above $20.00 (the upper red resistance line(upper line of the channel)




For more details:


----------



## iced earth (3 November 2011)

TA of MQG(MACQUARIE GROUP) - 03-11-11
===============================
Unfortunately the price could not pass up the red resistance line successfully.




Now the price has reached the support line and tomorrow we should see, if this support line would work or more fall should be anticipated


----------



## iced earth (24 November 2011)

TA of Aud/Usd - 24 Nov 2011
===================================

In 4hr charts, we could see that the pair is moving in a downward blue channel and after the pair passed down the red support line now is facing the lower line of the channel which could hold the pair from more fall but even so, the pair has the upper line of the channel as the resistance line.




In daily chart, after the pair touch the important level of 0.94 , moved up till around 1.07 which has previous pick and could not pass it up. Now the pair has the valid and important of level .94 (red line) and blue support line and if these could not hold the pair from further fall, we should see the pair at least around .9 




Also in monthly chart, we could see Andrew pitchfork, around .94 , middle line of the pitchfork acted as support line and we should see if this line could work for aus/usd this time or not


----------



## namrog (24 November 2011)

Like and appreciate your analysis there Iced Earth..

Keep it up ....


----------



## iced earth (24 November 2011)

namrog said:


> Like and appreciate your analysis there Iced Earth..
> 
> Keep it up ....




thanks namrog.
I am happy you like them


----------



## iced earth (28 November 2011)

TA of Aud/Usd - 28 Nov 2011
===================================
As it was mentioned, the pair started to increase when touched lower line of the channel (support line).
Now the pair is breaking up the downtrend channel, If it could manage to hold it up , the target would be around 1.025. But before reaching that, it will face the resistance blue line around 1.00.


----------



## iced earth (29 November 2011)

TA of JBH - 28 Nov 2011:
=================================
JBH has a strong support around $15.00 (the blue support line and previous low around 15). if this level works, the price could be anticipated to test 16.75 again.
but if price falls below 15.00 and stay there for more than 2-3 days, we could say we might are having the double top which the target would be around 14.00.




but more importantly, the price around 14-15 has a very important, valid long-term blue support line.
in this picture we could see the main white resistance line. in a normal situation JBH would move between these support resistance lines.


----------



## iced earth (30 November 2011)

TA of Aud/Usd - 30 Nov 2011
===============================
As it was predicted, after the pair breaks up the channel stated to rise but the blue resistance line didn’t let it pass.
if it could pass this reissuance line, the target of the channel around 1.025 could be reached.


----------



## iced earth (3 December 2011)

TA of Aud/Usd - 02 Dec 2011
===============================
As it was predicted, after the pair breaks up the channel stated to rise but the blue resistance line didn’t let it pass.
after few hours the pair could pass this reissuance line successfully and reached the target of the  channel . now the blue line is acting as support line for the pair.


----------



## tech/a (3 December 2011)

As always nice clean simple analysis.


----------



## motorway (3 December 2011)

Tysonboss1 said:


> Warren did spend time on TA in his early years, But completely abandoned it when he studied under Ben Graham at college
> 
> He believes that dedicating any part of his thinking to TA is just distracting him from his core work of security analysis, Warrens Hero Ben Graham also distained TA.
> 
> The opening chaptor of bens book jumps straight into ditching ta.





How does Warren then know what MR Market is up too ? Whether he is Hyper or depressive ?  If as you say he never considers share prices and how they are behaving 







> any part of his thinking to TA



 .

TA people will say or some of them that they never look at anything other then prices etc.

FA people could maybe say the same about the business aspects  . But FA people who talk about the moods of MR Market ?  Do not see how !  TA is just like a pathology test .Eg  If there is something unusual in  Mr Markets  pathology . It will show up in the blood tests. ( which are a snapshot of data considered in the terms of History and Deviations )

*If you never looked at share prices you would never know how Mr Market was feeling.
*



> It is a pitty that Warren is not a TA believer.




*He is always interested in what Mr Market  is doing . He does look at the behavior of Mkts and Prices . He does not try to predict them .. That would seem to be  a  very good defintion of the best type of TA.*

And in part it  does come down to how much you want to BUY ... The whole company or .000001 % ... IE are you the Hitchhiker or you own and drive the whole shebang .

Motorway


----------



## pixel (3 December 2011)

iced earth said:


> ...I like and respect and use fundamental Analysis as well.
> 
> If we could combine thses two each other we could get the best results (Technofun{d}amental)
> 
> My strategy is to follow companies with good fundamental and the best entering pint would be determined by TA.



 +1

The only problem I have with some aspects of F/A: It takes a lot of time, spent on individual companies, to separate what's opinion (aka "ramp") or superseded data from actual proven facts and figures.
For example, some fundamentalists quote Brokers' "Consensus" and when we look at the details, opinions vary from outperform to avoid, maybe a majority of brokers polled didn't even reply at all. 

For that reason, I prefer to get a technical analysis first, and only once that suggests I take an interest, I'll study the data, the ages of p/e or yield figures, recent reports etc.


----------



## iced earth (4 December 2011)

You are right Pixel ...

FA is really time consuming and even you could calculate and predict future EPS with very good accuracy, still there is another important unknown, P/E ...

but with studying Fundamental of a company you could have a good understanding about its strength and weakness, then you could use TA to find the best point of entry...

But another good thing about FA is that when you study and analyse it for the first time which would very time taking, for future new reports and data you should spend less less time to have a result from your FA...

anyway I love both of TA and FA ... I will try to put some of my FA in a topic which would force me to spend time one it along TA...

but I must admit FA is boring than TA and need patience and patience... and you should like accounting if you want to be a F Analyst...


----------



## iced earth (6 December 2011)

TA of HVN - 05-12-2011
====================
HVN had a good support at around $2.00 and today reached the valid (Red) resistance line and could not passed up $2.20.





 If HVN could manage to pass up this resistance line, it could reach the next important(blue) resistance line (around $2.80- depends when reach this line)


----------



## iced earth (6 December 2011)

TA of AUD/USD - 06-12-2011
========================

There is a possible flag (pennant) pattern, if formed completely, the target would be above 1.07


----------



## iced earth (13 December 2011)

TA of Gold - 13 Dec 2011
============================
In Linear chart (weekly): we see that Gold has a strong support line (Red) near $1600.00 

next valid support line is the green one which is the main upward trend line for gold




Gold around $1600.00 where has the red support line is also around important 38.2% Fibo




In logarithmic  chart (daily) : the importance of $1600.00 is more clear. Gold at around $1600.00 would touch lower line of the upward channel as very valid support line. If this support line can't hold Gold from falling, the target would be around $1300.00 which has important Fibo 50% as well.


----------



## iced earth (18 January 2012)

TA of Silver - 18 Jan 2012:
=====================
Silver had a bearish H&S and reached the target around $26




now we see a bullish H&S has formed. it has also its pullback after breaking up the neckline. the target of this pattern would be considered around $33.


----------



## iced earth (22 January 2012)

TA of Silver - 20 Jan 2012
===============================
As it was predicted in the previous post, Silver after breaking of the Neckline and pullback is going to reach the target of the Head and Shoulders around $33.00


----------

