# RIN - Rinker Group



## Julia (16 November 2005)

Is anyone holding Rinker?  I've been considering buying this for a while now but the fundamental signals are constantly contradictory.

Is the currency issue one of the offputting factors?

Julia


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## noirua (3 February 2006)

http://www.aireview.com/index.php?act=view&catid=8&id=3467&setSub=1


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## michael_selway (3 February 2006)

Julia said:
			
		

> Is anyone holding Rinker?  I've been considering buying this for a while now but the fundamental signals are constantly contradictory.
> 
> Is the currency issue one of the offputting factors?
> 
> Julia




Good question, imo its slowing down for sure

forecasts downgraded, only 10-15% growth in EPS per share from now on, still ok, but not specular as the past trend suggests


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## Odysseus (7 February 2006)

I hold Rinker (RIN), Julia,  and see very little evidence of its supposed going down. The key thing to grasp is that 80% of its earnings come from the US, which represents a vast and diversified market, and the second most important thing is that the company targets its business extraordinarily well, with both a sharp focus and adaptability. It is an excellent stock indeed. Certainly worth holding, I feel, until TRUE weakness emerges, but that may take a very long time! More likely it will be a good long-term buy even now. But of course this is just one individual's view.


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## michael_selway (7 February 2006)

Odysseus said:
			
		

> I hold Rinker (RIN), Julia,  and see very little evidence of its supposed going down. The key thing to grasp is that 80% of its earnings come from the US, which represents a vast and diversified market, and the second most important thing is that the company targets its business extraordinarily well, with both a sharp focus and adaptability. It is an excellent stock indeed. Certainly worth holding, I feel, until TRUE weakness emerges, but that may take a very long time! More likely it will be a good long-term buy even now. But of course this is just one individual's view.





True, its a Hodl rather than a buy imo

its has doen really well in the past, doubling, tripling etc

but now its more like 10-15% growth per year etc


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## Julia (7 February 2006)

Odysseus and Michael Selway,

Yes, thank you both for comments.

I bought a couple of weeks ago on a very temporary downturn and am happy to be holding.  I view it as a core stock in a long term investment portfolio.
....and then there are the pessimists and doomsayers who say it has done just too well, has to come down.  We'll see.

Julia


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## noirua (27 February 2006)

Rinker managed to penetrate the A$18 target on Monday for the first time. The buy-back is still continuing for the present and US interest has been sustained. Looking to the ADR's this afternoon !


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## ducati916 (28 February 2006)

*Julia* 

I posted this on the 09-02-2006 on reef

http://lightning.he.net/cgi-bin/suid/~reefcap/ultimatebb.cgi?ubb=get_topic;f=2;t=000284



Rinker Group Limited (Rinker) is a manufacturer and supplier of heavy building materials in the United States and Australia. In the United States, Rinker's subsidiary Rinker Materials is producer of heavy-building materials with its principal operations in Florida and Arizona, and additional operations in 29 other states. Products include aggregate, cement, concrete, concrete block, asphalt and concrete pipe. Rinker Materials also has a gypsum wallboard distribution business in Florida. In Australia, Rinker's subsidiary Readymix is a producer of aggregate, concrete, concrete pipe and other concrete products. Readymix also holds joint venture interests in cement and asphalt operations. In China, Readymix operates four concrete plants in the Northern cities of Tianjin and Qingdao. During the fiscal year ended March 31, 2005 (fiscal 2005), Rinker Materials divested its non-core Prestress and Polypipe polyethylene pipe businesses.


Current Price ADR $62.15
Intrinsic Value $21.27 - $28.71

Generally speaking this is actually a very solid business, conservatively capitalized.

The only areas of concern really reside in three areas, the first being that it is currently overvalued.

The second being that Cost of goods & SG&A have run out of control, increasing 29% & 38% respectively, against only an 11% increase in Revenues. This has been masked to a degree by a 31% increase in Net Profits.

This is where the smoke and mirrors have been utilized. To increase Net Profits, in the face of falling Revenues, with escalating Costs, something has been pulled over investors eyes.

It is within re-investment of PP&E, Capital Expeditures, (and Depreciation remains unchanged) There has been a massive 50%+ reduction within Capital Expenditures.

This has served to;
1...hide escalating costs
2...provide the illusion of increasing profits
3...starve the business of capital expenditures

None of this will come to light anytime soon, this is a slow burn type of bomb, but unless this trend is reversed, there could be problems down the road, as further decreasing revenues in the US that are not picked up in Aus & China, combined with increased CapEx, & poorly controlled costs will impact earnings badly.

If I was holding a long position, I'd be selling.
If I was contemplating a Short position, well I just don't do shorts, but if I wanted to go long in the future, then I'd box the trade.


jog on
d998


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## It's Snake Pliskin (28 February 2006)

Technically it looks alright if one were to follow trends. MACD is picking up and volume of late is supporting the price. I`m using a 50 day ma as a guide and the money flow is positive.


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## michael_selway (28 February 2006)

ducati916 said:
			
		

> *Julia*
> 
> I posted this on the 09-02-2006 on reef
> 
> ...




yeah its seems even though SP is rising, P/E is also rising, currently its 18+!

Forecasts are not super great to justify the high P/E, although its not very overvalued atm. Another similar stock is LEI which has highish P/E but lowish growth prospects

Earnings and Dividends Forecast (cents per share) 
2005 2006 2007 2008 
EPS 62.8 99.6 122.8 136.6 
DPS 21.0 35.0 40.2 44.6 

In terms of surprises, hm Hurricane Katrina isnt in the states that RIN operates?

"Currently 80% of revenue and earnings are derived from the US. The core earning driver for RIN comes from the Florida with the other key states being Arizona and Nevada"

thx

MS


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## ducati916 (28 February 2006)

*Michael Selway* 

You metioned LEI, again from Reef;



> I suspect the broker's god bless 'em, are probably looking at a couple of points, one, the valuation at a P/E of 25+ is pretty high for a cyclical business, (building).
> 
> The "new business" segment of their financial reports;
> 
> ...




http://lightning.he.net/cgi-bin/suid/~reefcap/ultimatebb.cgi?ubb=get_topic;f=8;t=000434

jog on
d998


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## noirua (3 March 2006)

Buys Florida based concrete block producer:

http://www.rinker.com.au/News/Rinker_acquisition_Mar211_06.pdf


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## noirua (10 March 2006)

Trading in RIN has been a two way struggle between the bulls and the bears since the half yearly report. Hopefully, the rise today to $17.86 heralds the next upwards leg.


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## noirua (16 March 2006)

Looks as if we are on the next upward leg as RIN touched a new all-time high at A$18.85. Closed in NY at US$68.20 ( ADR's x 5 ), sentiment index increased to 81.


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## michael_selway (16 March 2006)

noirua said:
			
		

> Looks as if we are on the next upward leg as RIN touched a new all-time high at A$18.85. Closed in NY at US$68.20 ( ADR's x 5 ), sentiment index increased to 81.




its doing well yes, but PE is 19+ now, use to be like 15-16!

thing is they havent increased forecasts for 2007 and 2008 by much at all, so 2008 forward PE is 14, which is expensive imo, considering forecats for 2009-10 will probably be less than 10%

yield is also very low compared to others in same sector

Earnings and Dividends Forecast (cents per share) 
2005 2006 2007 2008 
EPS 62.8 99.6 123.5 136.6 
DPS 21.0 35.0 40.2 44.6 

EPS(c) PE Growth 
Year Ending 30-03-06 99.6 18.4 58.7% 
Year Ending 30-03-07 123.5 14.8 24.0% 

Not much "good news" out also, is it all hype u think?

thx

MS


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## noirua (24 March 2006)

Hi MS: Is Rinker an Aussie Stock or an American stock? Well of course it is an ASX share. But should it not be treated on a PE equivalent to those in the States these days. If so, the PE Ratio for 2006 should be around 20 to 24.
Sentiment Index in the States stands at 75 today.


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## StockyBailx (24 March 2006)

Hi *Julie* ,

    Long time no sea! A really good question, I will give you a educated guess to try and help block the confusion from above. *RIN* Rinker as you may well notice does very well for its self, and fudermentals suggest it will remain on a high for a very long time. only a crissis will tumble rinker. Ive had a sticky beck and notice rinker has a very strong turnover, of over $700,000,000.00. Assets of over $5 billion dollars  a minumal debt of around $300,000,000.00. What impresses me the most is that *RIN*  Rinker has a inventory turnover of 1497.44% Absolutly better long term value than most/all ASX stocks today.
As you should well know Rinker is a heavy building material group, I think originated in Australia and now based in the US with holdings of australian companies such as CSR, ReadyMix, and I think Wesfarmers group such as mita 10. So there for in my apinun *RIN*  stands out amounst the crowd as a excellent LONG TERM investment if you have the time and money!
Best get in there now while the goings are good. I only wish I invested in rinker this time last year, when it was only around $10. Think about it up $10 dollers from last year. Up $15 this this year and so on, I would think so!
Have a look at it, if you have got it *RIN* /Rinker is telling you were to put it. Rinker fundermendals are very powerful, and always runs well on extended volume. A excellent investment! Never say goodbye to rinker every man and his dog needs rinker for there biulding supply and concrete. Rinker is at the forfont of the biusness and at no better time to buy before its to late!

There you go Jewls, your *MONEY*  your *TIME* . I understand *DOW, WOW, ZFX*  are also good value at this time, for much the same reason as above, givin there differance in sectors.

Good Luck and at Gods Speed.

*STOCK'ie'BAILZ*

Invest Wisely and not Quickly__Spot the differance!


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## noirua (31 March 2006)

Rinker Group have hit A$20.00 for the first time today. US brokers are estimating a price of about A$22.60 to bring the stock into line with their US equivalents.


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## noirua (31 March 2006)

Rinker Group closed on Wednesday on the NYSE at US$69.99 ( ADR's x 5 ) and the sentiment index surprisingly dropped to 68, falling from Bullish to marginally into the optimistic range.


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## noirua (4 April 2006)

Rinker have closed today at A$20, spot on. Interesting to see if they can reach the analysts A$22.50 valuation to bring them into line with similar USA stocks. USA sentiment index has moved to 77, closed in NY at US$71.03 ( ADR's x 5 ), 12 month chart looks excellent.


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## michael_selway (4 April 2006)

noirua said:
			
		

> Rinker have closed today at A$20, spot on. Interesting to see if they can reach the analysts A$22.50 valuation to bring them into line with similar USA stocks. USA sentiment index has moved to 77, closed in NY at US$71.03 ( ADR's x 5 ), 12 month chart looks excellent.




its very peaky at 22.50, dont think it can double from here on in

thx

MS


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## noirua (6 April 2006)

A new all-time closing high in NY at US$73.18 ( ADR's x 5 ) and the sentiment index reaching 80.
The feeling is that Rinker are likely to move on up from here, target US$80.00.


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## noirua (6 April 2006)

noirua said:
			
		

> A new all-time closing high in NY at US$73.18 ( ADR's x 5 ) and the sentiment index reaching 80.
> The feeling is that Rinker are likely to move on up from here, target US$80.00.




Rinker have raised Annual profit expectations - see ASX.


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## michael_selway (6 April 2006)

noirua said:
			
		

> Rinker have raised Annual profit expectations - see ASX.




http://www.asx.com.au//asxpdf/20060406/pdf/3w6mf3y4jdfd8.pdf

but are those below consensus forecasts?

Earnings and Dividends Forecast (cents per share) 
2005 2006 2007 2008 
EPS 62.8 100.3 127.6 141.8 
DPS 21.0 35.0 43.6 49.7

EPS(c) PE Growth 
Year Ending 30-03-06 100.3 20.1 59.8% 
Year Ending 30-03-07 127.6 15.8 27.2% 

thx

MS


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## noirua (6 April 2006)

michael_selway said:
			
		

> http://www.asx.com.au//asxpdf/20060406/pdf/3w6mf3y4jdfd8.pdf
> 
> but are those below consensus forecasts?
> 
> ...





Reuters state that this is 13% to 21% over estimates. Whether this means that the A$22.50 target is raised to between A$25.50 and A$27.80, I really don't know. We must wait and see.


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## Julia (6 April 2006)

SP up $1.22 to $21.40 this afternoon.

Julia


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## noirua (7 April 2006)

Rinker finished on the NYSE at US$79, up US$5.82. The US sentiment index rose to 83.


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## michael_selway (7 April 2006)

noirua said:
			
		

> Rinker finished on the NYSE at US$79, up US$5.82. The US sentiment index rose to 83.




does US follow AUS, or AUS follow US?

thx

MS


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## noirua (8 April 2006)

michael_selway said:
			
		

> does US follow AUS, or AUS follow US?
> 
> thx
> 
> MS




Today the US market followed Aus, falling from the previous close of US$79 to US$76.80 about 3 hours before the close.


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## michael_selway (16 April 2006)

noirua said:
			
		

> Today the US market followed Aus, falling from the previous close of US$79 to US$76.80 about 3 hours before the close.




Ok yep thanks, thats what i thought

Btw updated consensus forecasts on Comsec

*Earnings and Dividends Forecast (cents per share) 
2005 2006 2007 2008 
EPS 62.8 106.0 132.8 149.9 
DPS 21.0 34.6 40.5 45.6 

EPS(c) PE Growth 
Year Ending 30-03-06 106.0 19.7 68.9% 
Year Ending 30-03-07 132.8 15.7 25.3%

CONTRIBUTING ANALYSTS  
ABN AMRO, CREDIT SUISSE - AUSTRALIA, UBS, E.L. & C. BAILLIEU STOCKBROKING LTD., MERRILL LYNCH (INTERNATIONAL RESEARCH), MACQUARIE RESEARCH EQUITIES, GOLDMAN SACHS JB WERE, J.P. MORGAN, CITIGROUP, DEUTSCHE BANK SECURITIES * 

was before

Earnings and Dividends Forecast (cents per share) 
2005 2006 2007 2008 
EPS 62.8 100.3 127.6 141.8 
DPS 21.0 35.0 43.6 49.7

*Note they are forecasting 25.3% growth next FY, but CEO is forecasting 13-21% only. However exchange rates also affect their earnings:*



> Rinker expects to deliver another year of strong growth in revenue and profit in YEM07. EPS is expected to be in the range of 86 to 92 US cents, up 13% to 21% over Rinker’s EPS estimates for the fiscal year just ended, excluding one off gains.
> 
> These expectations assume the construction activity levels cited above and that mining activity is not significantly curtailed due to future developments in the Florida Lake Belt litigation (most recently discussed by Rinker in its 23 March 2006 advice to the market), the outcome/s of which Rinker is
> unable to predict.




http://www.asx.com.au//asxpdf/20060406/pdf/3w6mf3y4jdfd8.pdf


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## noirua (18 April 2006)

michael_selway said:
			
		

> Ok yep thanks, thats what i thought
> 
> Btw updated consensus forecasts on Comsec
> 
> ...





Certainly looks to have a strong outlook and the way looks paved for RIN' to go on higher from here. $22 should be an easy target.


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## noirua (21 April 2006)

Rinker closed on the NYSE unchanged at US$79.10 ( all-time closing high was US$79.80 ), and the sentiment index reached 79 ( 81 earlier in the week ).

Closed on the ASX at A$21.55.


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## noirua (22 April 2006)

Rinker closed the week on the NYSE at an all-time closing high of US$80.00. The sentiment index moved up to 82 and the signal stockscore to 98.


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## michael_selway (22 April 2006)

noirua said:
			
		

> Rinker closed the week on the NYSE at an all-time closing high of US$80.00 and the sentiment index moved up to 82.




wow nice   

Date: 19/4/2006 
Author: Henry Byrne 
Source: The Australian Financial Review --- Page: 17 

Shares in US-based, Australian-listed construction materials group, Rinker, hit a record $A21.94 on 6 April 2006. Since then they have eased back, closing at $A21.19 on 18 April. Investor confidence in Rinker is not surprising given that the company issued five profit upgrades over the 12 months to 31 March. It expects to report earnings of about $A740 million for the fiscal year and anticipates that growth will continue through 2007. On the downside, Rinker may have to fight a legal battle over rock mining permits in South Florida. Some brokers are suggesting the stock might be too expensive


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## noirua (24 April 2006)

michael_selway said:
			
		

> wow nice
> 
> Date: 19/4/2006
> Author: Henry Byrne
> ...




Those who review Rinker Group appear to me to be a long way behind on events. The USA stock market is moving ahead and like many I think it will continue in this bull phase for many years to come - my target for the DOW 40 is 12,500 for 2006, 14,000 for 2007 and 16,000 for 2008. 

There are the ifs and buts concerning the price and demand for new housing. Should the market stay on track with a bouyant NYSE, then Rinker Group with its growth prospects remain cheap.


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## noirua (25 April 2006)

Rinker trade at US$79.69 ( equates to A$21.56 a share, Aus v greenback dollar spot ), 5 hours before the opening on the ASX, after closing Friday at US$80.00 and opening this morning on the NYSE at US$80.22. 
The sentiment index stands at 81 and the signal stockscore is down to 73. The candle reading is bearish today and the 5 day support level is at US$76.30.


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## noirua (26 April 2006)

Looks promising now as Rinker reach A$22, a push on in the States could see the A$22.50 target by ML passed at the gallop.


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## Jay-684 (26 April 2006)

sold today @ 22.01 for 55% profit so happy

seen a few articles lately (and comments here and elsewhere) thinking RIN is a little over priced.

In the Money section of the SMH today there is an article on them too.


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## noirua (27 April 2006)

Jay-684 said:
			
		

> sold today @ 22.01 for 55% profit so happy
> 
> seen a few articles lately (and comments here and elsewhere) thinking RIN is a little over priced.
> 
> In the Money section of the SMH today there is an article on them too.




A good price A$22.01. My sleepless nights will continue as I hold on and cross my fingers.

Closed in New York at a new all-time high of US$82.50, sentiment index is up to 83 and the signal score a heady 98 today. My sell target is in the range  A$26.00 - A$29.00.


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## noirua (28 April 2006)

http://www.forbes.com/finance/mktguideapps/compinfo/CompanyTearsheet.jhtml?tkr=rin

Closed on the NYSE at US$81.41, sentiment index at 82 and signal score down to 75.


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## noirua (4 May 2006)

Rinker Group are being dragged down on the ASX despite efforts to move up on the NYSE: Finished at US$80.80 ( ADR, 5 shares ) with the sentiment index at 81 and the stock score at 81, that equates to A$20.96 a share, at spot A$1.2965 to the greenback.
Trading today on the ASX at around A$20.54.


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## Julia (4 May 2006)

noirua said:
			
		

> Rinker Group are being dragged down on the ASX despite efforts to move up on the NYSE: Finished at US$80.80 ( ADR, 5 shares ) with the sentiment index at 81 and the stock score at 81, that equates to A$20.96 a share, at spot A$1.2965 to the greenback.
> Trading today on the ASX at around A$20.54.




Don't see any reason why they won't bounce back when the overall market sentiment changes.  Almost my whole portfolio is a sea of red today after being all in the black a couple of days ago.

Julia


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## noirua (5 May 2006)

Julia said:
			
		

> Don't see any reason why they won't bounce back when the overall market sentiment changes.  Almost my whole portfolio is a sea of red today after being all in the black a couple of days ago.
> 
> Julia




Hi Julia, pleased to see you have confidence in RIN, as the fall, against the back drop of bullish forecasts in the US has been a bit of a worry. The Aussie market has been bearish with the less traded NYSE struggling to stay at high levels. 
Opened on the NYSE at US$77.90 and now struggling back at US$78.66.


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## noirua (9 May 2006)

Rinker Group are recovering well from the Aussie sell-off and have now reached A$21.20.

Closed on the NYSE at US$80.95 ( intra-day high was US$83.30 ) and the sentiment index standing at 79.


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## Julia (9 May 2006)

Macquarie have a Buy on them with a target price of $24.50

Julia


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## noirua (10 May 2006)

Julia said:
			
		

> Macquarie have a Buy on them with a target price of $24.50
> 
> Julia




Rinker have moved to A$21.50 and the ASX is looking more likely to drive the price on.


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## noirua (11 May 2006)

Rinker Group, closed at an all-time high, in the States, of US$83.43. The sentiment index reached 83 with a signalscore of 98.


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## RodC (11 May 2006)

Results are out.

Revenues up 18.5% on previous period.
Net profit up 50.1% on previous period.

Final dividend 24c
Special dividend 40c

record date is 9th June.

Also proposing a 50c capital return (needs ATO and shareholder approval).

Rod.


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## michael_selway (11 May 2006)

RodC said:
			
		

> Results are out.
> 
> Revenues up 18.5% on previous period.
> Net profit up 50.1% on previous period.
> ...




Yeah I noticed, however it dropped a bit today, not sure why

The only thing that still worries me is contrast between the CEO 2007 forecast growth of 13-21% and the current Consensus forecast 27%

Earnings and Dividends Forecast (cents per share) 
2005 2006 2007 2008 
EPS 62.8 105.4 134.6 145.2 
DPS 21.0 35.0 40.0 47.0 

EPS(c) PE Growth 
Year Ending 30-03-06 105.4 20.3 67.9% 
Year Ending 30-03-07 134.6 15.9 27.7%

The thing is, they are paying a special dividend and capital return, so this means they are not looking to expand by aquisitions this year?

thx

MS


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## michael_selway (11 May 2006)

http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=10001065&sid=akYj5HiyfKmk&refer=movers_by_index

Rinker, Australia's biggest building materials maker, slid 33 cents, or 1.5 percent, to A$21.07. The company said fourth-quarter profit rose 49 percent on booming demand in the U.S. The company plans to return $614 million to shareholders. Rinker repeated last month's forecast of earnings per share growth of as much as 21 percent to 92 cents for the year ahead. 

``There may have been an expectation that Rinker was going to further revise up earnings, which they didn't do,'' said Rob Patterson, who manages the equivalent of about $2.6 billion at Argo Investments in Adelaide, including Rinker shares. 

All five Australian stocks that were added to Morgan Stanley Capital International's global indexes today, including Zinifex Ltd., gained on speculation their inclusion will lure some of the more than $3 trillion in funds benchmarked to the MSCI measures. The changes will take effect at the close of trading May 31. 

WorleyParsons, Paladin 

Zinifex, the world's second-biggest zinc producer, rose 57 cents, or 4.5 percent, to A$13.34. Zinifex has surged 342 percent the past year as zinc prices have climbed to a record. 

WorleyParsons Ltd., an engineering company that services the oil and metals industries, rose 11 cents, or 0.6 percent, to A$19.51. It has climbed 172 percent the past 12 months as mining services companies benefit amid a global resources boom. 

Goodman Fielder Ltd., Australia's largest baker, gained 4 cents, or 1.8 percent, to A$2.24. The stock has gained 9.8 percent since listing on December 19. In March the company said it's ``on track'' to meet its full-year profit forecast after boosting earnings from bread and groceries. 

Paladin Resources Ltd., a uranium explorer, jumped 28 cents, or 5.7 percent, to A$5.18. The shares have surged 389 percent the past year on speculation it will benefit from the government's decision to allow uranium sales to China. 

ABC Learning Centres Ltd., Australia's largest child-care provider, added 19 cents, or 2.5 percent, to A$7.88. It's gained 49 percent the past year as the company has spent about A$730 million on seven acquisitions in Australia and the U.S. the past two years.


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## michael_selway (15 May 2006)

http://www.smh.com.au/news/business...rowth-is-harder/2006/05/14/1147545210807.html

Rinker's no stinker but buying growth is harder
Email Print Normal font Large font By Malcolm Maiden
May 15, 2006
Page 1 of 2 | Single page 
BOND STREET

Advertisement
AdvertisementIT TOOK investors a while to work out the strategy behind CSR's spin-off of Rinker early in 2003, but those who did have been very handsomely rewarded.

Since Rinker made its debut, its shares have risen by 330 per cent, comfortably outdistancing a 171 per cent rise in the Materials index, which houses comparable companies such as Boral but also resources stars such as BHP Billiton and Rio Tinto.

Rinker has thrashed the ASX 200 index, which has risen by 83 per cent over the same period.

The performance reflects the fact that Rinker CEO David Clarke has pretty much done what he said he would do when the group became independent: continue to expand in the US, but only in markets that offer above-average growth and deliver results that encourage a revaluation of Rinker's shares to bring them into line with US competitors.

Last week, however, Clarke discovered just how wary investors are becoming.

He produced another superb result, paid shareholders gobs of cash, and then saw his shares fall by 2 per cent to $20.94, almost 6 per cent below their high of $22.22, set late last month.

US dollars are the best way to measure Rinker's progress because 79 per cent of its revenue and 85 per cent of its profits come from America.

In US dollars, revenue in the latest year was up 19 per cent, earnings before interest and tax were up 48 per cent and net profit was up 50 per cent.

The group generated $US679 million of uncommitted cash, 63 per cent more than the year before. Since the spin-off in 2003, revenue has risen by 72 per cent, to $US5.1 billion, EBIT has gone up 191 per cent to $US1.15 billion, and net profit has risen by 244 per cent to $US740 million.

Rinker produces materials that are used by road builders and housing and commercial construction companies: cement, concrete and concrete building blocks, pipes and other pre-fabricated construction items, road aggregate and asphalt.

It has built or is building major market share in American states including Florida, Arizona, Nevada and Texas that have faster growing populations, faster than average economic growth, and consequently robust demand for construction materials.

Expansion has been incremental, but persistent: within CSR between 1998 and 2003 and in its own right since then, Rinker has made 47 acquisitions worth $US1.9 billion.

The perceived weak spot in last week's profit result was that Clarke noted that the US housing market was softening slightly (although still growing), and the asking prices for businesses in the areas Rinker wants to expand in were too high.

While Rinker waits for deals at the right price it is returning spare cash to shareholders, beginning with a $US341 million ($455 million), 50c a share capital return, and a special 40c a share dividend that soaks up $US273 million.

The negative sharemarket reaction partly reflects the fact that there is general nervousness about how far share prices have run in 2006: that concern will be a force in the market again today, when Wall Street's Friday sell-off feeds into local prices and pushes them lower.

It also reflects concern that the revaluation of the group to bring it into line with US peers in the basic materials industry has largely run its course just as the group signals that its options for continued expansion by acquisition are being limited by "unrealistic" price tags.

Rinker was a steal three years ago, just after the spin-off. Its shares were selling for less than $5 each, less than 10 times expected earnings in 2003-04. At the same time, shares in three US competitors, Vulcan, Martin Marietta and Florida Rock, were changing hands for between 12 times and 14 times expected earnings.

Valuations have expanded across the board in the bull market in ensuing years but Rinker has also narrowed the valuation gap, as planned. Its shares are now priced at 16.9 times expected earnings in 2006-07, compared with 18.6 times for Vulcan, 18.5 times for Martin Marietta and 19.3 times for Florida Rock.

Companies can also be valued by comparing their enterprise value (ie, market value plus debt) to their cash flow (or earnings before interest, tax, depreciation and amortisation): on that measure, Rinker has come from being not much more than half the value of the three US groups in 2003 to a similar value, with an enterprise value-to-EBITDA multiple of almost 10 times, up from 4.8 times in 2003.

The re-rating has been achieved despite a slower internationalisation of Rinker's ownership than expected. The group was only 17 per cent foreign- owned when it spun out of CSR, including US ownership of only 5 per cent.

The target was foreign ownership of 50 per cent but non- Australians still only own 40 per cent of the group. US shareholders own about 25 per cent of issued capital, down from a peak of about 30 per cent.

The sum of all these parts is that the days when Rinker shares were a screaming buy are gone but there still appears to be room for gains.

Rinker is a great success story in a market Australian companies have had trouble cracking in the past, and US and European investor interest should rise over time, as the group executes its strategy of targeting high growth markets in a disciplined way.

Rinker should continue to be rated at least as highly as the companies it competes with in the US. And it has beaten them in the past five years for revenue and profit growth and on both sides of the Atlantic in the year to March with its return on equity of 27.6 per cent.

While Rinker waits for deals at the right price it is returning spare cash to shareholders, beginning with a $US341 million ($455 million), 50c a share capital return, and a special 40c a share dividend that soaks up $US273 million.

The negative sharemarket reaction partly reflects the fact that there is general nervousness about how far share prices have run in 2006: that concern will be a force in the market again today, when Wall Street's Friday sell-off feeds into local prices and pushes them lower.

It also reflects concern that the revaluation of the group to bring it into line with US peers in the basic materials industry has largely run its course just as the group signals that its options for continued expansion by acquisition are being limited by "unrealistic" price tags.

Rinker was a steal three years ago, just after the spin-off. Its shares were selling for less than $5 each, less than 10 times expected earnings in 2003-04. At the same time, shares in three US competitors, Vulcan, Martin Marietta and Florida Rock, were changing hands for between 12 times and 14 times expected earnings.

Valuations have expanded across the board in the bull market in ensuing years but Rinker has also narrowed the valuation gap, as planned. Its shares are now priced at 16.9 times expected earnings in 2006-07, compared with 18.6 times for Vulcan, 18.5 times for Martin Marietta and 19.3 times for Florida Rock.

Companies can also be valued by comparing their enterprise value (ie, market value plus debt) to their cash flow (or earnings before interest, tax, depreciation and amortisation): on that measure, Rinker has come from being not much more than half the value of the three US groups in 2003 to a similar value, with an enterprise value-to-EBITDA multiple of almost 10 times, up from 4.8 times in 2003.

The re-rating has been achieved despite a slower internationalisation of Rinker's ownership than expected. The group was only 17 per cent foreign- owned when it spun out of CSR, including US ownership of only 5 per cent.

The target was foreign ownership of 50 per cent but non- Australians still only own 40 per cent of the group. US shareholders own about 25 per cent of issued capital, down from a peak of about 30 per cent.

The sum of all these parts is that the days when Rinker shares were a screaming buy are gone but there still appears to be room for gains.

Rinker is a great success story in a market Australian companies have had trouble cracking in the past, and US and European investor interest should rise over time, as the group executes its strategy of targeting high growth markets in a disciplined way.

Rinker should continue to be rated at least as highly as the companies it competes with in the US. And it has beaten them in the past five years for revenue and profit growth and on both sides of the Atlantic in the year to March with its return on equity of 27.6 per cent.


----------



## noirua (15 May 2006)

Hi M_S, Excellent posts: only hope for RIN escaping further falls is a pick-up of news in the States.


----------



## noirua (16 May 2006)

Rinker's major areas in the States:Florida, Arizona, Nevada and Texas.

http://www.msnbc.msn.com/id/12800144/

http://www.msnbc.msn.com/id/12269915/from/RL3/

http://www.bizjournals.com/specials/pages/4.html
http://www.bizjournals.com/specials/pages/5.html
http://www.bizjournals.com/specials/pages/6.html
http://www.bizjournals.com/specials/pages/7.html


----------



## noirua (18 May 2006)

Rinker have not done badly despite the sea of red on the LSE and NYSE. Down just 0.4% at US$77.63 with a declining sentiment of 75.


----------



## noirua (22 May 2006)

Rinker are holding up with the strengthening US Dollar today. Should recover slightly to the A$20 level.


----------



## noirua (25 May 2006)

Rinker have declined further in the States to US$69.31, sentiment down to 65 and signal stock score at a lowly 57. The next major support level was at about US$70.00.


----------



## michael_selway (25 May 2006)

noirua said:
			
		

> Rinker have declined further in the States to US$69.31, sentiment down to 65 and signal stock score at a lowly 57. The next major support level was at about US$70.00.




Earnings and Dividends Forecast (cents per share) 
2006 2007 2008 2009 
EPS 106.7 133.8 137.9 149.4 
DPS 104.3 45.6 48.1 50.8 

Was before

Earnings and Dividends Forecast (cents per share) 
2005 2006 2007 2008 
EPS 62.8 105.4 134.6 145.2 
DPS 21.0 35.0 40.0 47.0 

thx

MS


----------



## noirua (6 June 2006)

Rinker Group are still standing close to the decisive chart position of US$70.00.  Down to US$68.39 in early afternoon trading on the NYSE with the sentiment index further down at 51 and the signal stock score at 30.

A further decisive mark is on 23rd July when the stock goes X the capital return to be paid on 7th August.


----------



## coyotte (6 June 2006)

What's going to support RIN after Friday ??

would say its parachute is those waiting for "record day"
then the chute will probably implode come Mon/Tues

good CFD stock to Short !


----------



## michael_selway (6 June 2006)

coyotte said:
			
		

> What's going to support RIN after Friday ??
> 
> would say its parachute is those waiting for "record day"
> then the chute will probably implode come Mon/Tues
> ...




Latest forecast, approaching fair value (fwd PE 10). Not so expensive anymore   

Earnings and Dividends Forecast (cents per share) 
2006 2007 2008 2009 
EPS 106.7 132.5 142.3 149.4 
DPS 78.0 45.6 48.4 51.3 

thx

MS


----------



## Dr Doom (7 June 2006)

RIN will be downgraded severely within the next 12 months, due entirely to the housing hard landing unfolding in the US. All the signals are there, you only have to take notice. 
Reasons - 
- housing companies in the US start issuing downgrades
- interest rates are rising, 
- negative consumer savings
- massive consumer debt already
Peak for RIN was $22.22

Time will tell


----------



## coyotte (7 June 2006)

would not RIN have to close above 17.60 come friday after decucting the two divs & taking in its present support level  ?

presently sitting on 17.00 , its old highs from Oct/05 & Jan/06

US market usually UP on Fri night & DN on Mon night
P/H in Oz Mon --- Open on a Down US market Tues


----------



## noirua (8 June 2006)

coyotte said:
			
		

> would not RIN have to close above 17.60 come friday after decucting the two divs & taking in its present support level  ?
> 
> presently sitting on 17.00 , its old highs from Oct/05 & Jan/06
> 
> ...




Company share quotes on the ASX deduct the dividend 4 days before the book date on 5th June 06 ( A$24 cents, 60% franked ) . The special dividend will be deducted 4 days before on 19th July 06 ( A$40 cents, unfranked ). The capital Return will be deducted on the record date on 25th July 06 ( A$50 cents ) - approved by the tax office today in an ASX announcement.


----------



## noirua (8 June 2006)

noirua said:
			
		

> Company share quotes on the ASX deduct the dividend 4 days before the book date on 5th June 06 ( A$24 cents, 60% franked ) . The special dividend will be deducted 4 days before on 19th July 06 ( A$40 cents, unfranked ). The capital Return will be deducted on the record date on 25th July 06 ( A$50 cents ) - approved by the tax office today in an ASX announcement.




Apologies, the 40 cents, unfranked dividend, was also deducted on 5th June ( book date 9th June ) and is payable on 4th July 06, along with the 24 cents final dividend. 

The capital return - if approved at the AGM on 18th July 06 - will be paid on 17th August 06.


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## noirua (9 June 2006)

Rinker trade at US$59.99 and testing the vital US$60.00 level. Sentiment index is at an all-time low of 43 and the signal stock score at a fragile 36. 

Only help likely to come is the strength in the US Dollar, providing the Aussie market does not continue to lead the market down.


----------



## coyotte (9 June 2006)

noirua said:
			
		

> Company share quotes on the ASX deduct the dividend 4 days before the book date on 5th June 06 ( A$24 cents, 60% franked ) . The special dividend will be deducted 4 days before on 19th July 06 ( A$40 cents, unfranked ). The capital Return will be deducted on the record date on 25th July 06 ( A$50 cents ) - approved by the tax office today in an ASX announcement.



 My mistake noirua
have been gettig this wrong for the last decade
but why is exdiv not the day after record day ?


----------



## michael_selway (9 June 2006)

noirua said:
			
		

> Rinker trade at US$59.99 and testing the vital US$60.00 level. Sentiment index is at an all-time low of 43 and the signal stock score at a fragile 36.
> 
> Only help likely to come is the strength in the US Dollar, providing the Aussie market does not continue to lead the market down.




where do u get the "sentiment index from"?

thx

MS


----------



## noirua (9 June 2006)

michael_selway said:
			
		

> where do u get the "sentiment index from"?
> 
> thx
> 
> MS




Hi M_S, the sentiment stockscore is obtainable free via the following link:
http://www.stockscores.com/quickreport.asp?ticker=RIN


----------



## noirua (14 June 2006)

Rinker Group seem to have fallen to a level that thinks lower metals and oil prices are bad for the USA. Bad they may be for the producers, tough luck, but for Rinker the prospects rise, once the dust and debris has settled.


----------



## noirua (22 June 2006)

Rinker have risen to $17.41 on better news and forecasts for new property sales in the USA.


----------



## michael_selway (25 June 2006)

noirua said:
			
		

> Rinker have risen to $17.41 on better news and forecasts for new property sales in the USA.










*Earnings and Dividends Forecast (cents per share) 
2006 2007 2008 2009 
EPS 106.7 132.5 142.5 149.4 
DPS 78.0 45.6 48.7 51.6* 

yep first week of recovery since its fall

thx

MS


----------



## noirua (26 June 2006)

michael_selway said:
			
		

> *Earnings and Dividends Forecast (cents per share)
> 2006 2007 2008 2009
> EPS 106.7 132.5 142.5 149.4
> DPS 78.0 45.6 48.7 51.6*
> ...




Still holding at the A$17.00 level and further strength in the USA currency this week should help.


----------



## scsl (28 June 2006)

today's low was 16.07, high of 16.57, closed at 16.20.

with a majority of RIN's earnings deriving from the US, i expect further volatility for the rest of the week thanks to the fed's rate decision. also, today's negative AUS housing data differs from the recent positive US data...

RIN has breached $16.00 twice in this correction, with the low of 15.70 on June 14.

any guesses as to what lows RIN could go to this week and next?


----------



## scsl (29 June 2006)

UBS has downgraded RIN from buy to neutral, with the price target cut from $25 to $17.55. according to the following article, 7 out of 9 brokers rate the stock as a buy, with UBS and Citigroup rating RIN as neutral and hold respestively.

http://www.fnarena.com/index2.cfm?type=dsp_newsitem&n=1918F48C-17A4-1130-F5EE880C5325292F


----------



## Julia (29 June 2006)

scsl said:
			
		

> UBS has downgraded RIN from buy to neutral, with the price target cut from $25 to $17.55. according to the following article, 7 out of 9 brokers rate the stock as a buy, with UBS and Citigroup rating RIN as neutral and hold respestively.
> 
> http://www.fnarena.com/index2.cfm?type=dsp_newsitem&n=1918F48C-17A4-1130-F5EE880C5325292F




The FNArena article also seemed to suggest other brokers might soon start falling into line with the above two and downgrade to a Hold.

Julia


----------



## michael_selway (29 June 2006)

Julia said:
			
		

> The FNArena article also seemed to suggest other brokers might soon start falling into line with the above two and downgrade to a Hold.
> 
> Julia




The First Axe Falls On Darling Rinker
FN Arena News - June 28 2006
By Greg Peel 

Earnings revisions are the most important driver of [Rinker] RIN's share price, in our view. Those earnings revisions are a function of changes in the supply demand balance in RIN's key products, readymix concrete, crushed stone and cement in Florida (Fl). At the moment demand exceeds supply providing RIN with strong product pricing power leading to ongoing positive earnings revisions, increasing returns on capital and an ever improving balance sheet." – UBS, 13th April 2006. "Profit revisions are typically far more powerful than multiples in explaining share price movements in building materials stocks. The reason is that most valuations are related to expected earnings growth, and building materials stocks have low earnings visibility. For instance consensus estimates of RIN earnings two years out show an average error of over 30% for the three years since RIN has been listed." – UBS, 28th June 2006. And with that, the axe fell. Rinker (RIN) has been a market darling for some time now. Prior to today, 8 out of 9 brokers in the FN Arena database rated the stock a Buy. SB Citigroup was the only dissenter, rating Rinker a Hold despite its last report (April 7) being a very positive one. On that day, Citi lifted its target to the level the stock was actually trading at – hence the Hold. As can be discerned from the statement above, UBS has now pulled its rating for Rinker in from Buy to Neutral. The analysts have also sliced the price target from $25.00 to $17.55. Rinker closed yesterday at $16.80. On April 13, UBS upgraded Rinker from Neutral to Buy, lifting the price target from $18.50 to $25.00. Rinker had closed the day before at $20.95. One week before, the exasperated analysts noted "Following recent upgrades from US peers, RIN has moved to upgrade guidance for YEM'06E [US fiscal year to March 2006 estimation] one last time". Rinker had upgraded five times in the year, and it had a track record of exceeding guidance. Could this company do no wrong? Around the same time, the warning bells had been sounding for the US residential housing market. As Sydney and London had experienced earlier, the US housing market had taken off previously but had begun to decidedly cool. Economists were very worried. The US current account deficit being the way it was, any collapse in housing could cascade with devastating consequences. However, when it came to Rinker, brokers were not concerned. FN Arena's Broker Call carries the following entries as an example: "The analysts acknowledge volumes are slowing in the US housing market but they add any weakness should be more than offset by non-residential and infrastructure activity plus some material price increases." Credit Suisse, June 9. "The stock has been hammered on fears of a US housing slowdown, and the broker suggests the market is right to be cautious. However, the broker feels valuation parameters are compelling, and that RIN is cheap compared to Australian and US peers." Macquarie, June 8. Economists globally are concerned about a slowdown in the US economy. Forget inflation, they say, as a slowing economy will put a lid on inflation soon anyway. Of more concern is a predicted slowing in US consumption levels, and part of this is due to a fall in housing prices. It won't be a crash, but it will make a difference, they chant. UBS reports that US demand for concrete as of March 2006 was running at an annualised rate of 12.5 mt - an increase of 40% over the past three years. The compound growth since 1995 has been about 7% so UBS suggests it's unsurprising that profits have also been strong. However, UBS also believes demand cannot be expected to grow at 10% or even at a 7% pace in the medium term. Population growth is around 2.4%, the analysts note, and adding in 1% for bigger buildings, more roads and so on, that is more concrete consumption per person, only gets us to 3.5% growth. Compound growth from 1995 through to 2002 was only 4.6%. In other words, something had to give. At what point did the UBS analysts actually wake up to these figures? Rinker's concrete division has grown since 2004 at a level that has provided returns on equity exceeding 30%. Says UBS: "A return to more normal returns was, in our opinion, always on the cards. What's different is that we now expect that return more quickly than previously, and that's because the fall in the leading indicators of housing, at least nationally, is more dramatic than we had anticipated". That's a big difference. Big enough to take a target from $18.50 to $25.00 and back to $17.55 in the space of two months. Recent data from McGraw Hill, reports UBS, shows an anticipated 23% decline in 2006-07 for Florida housing, leading to an 18% decline in total construction. UBS claims such data is hard to come by. UBS also notes that a look back into Rinker's history suggests margins are presently well above historical levels (about $30 for every $100 of concrete sold). "Arguably this simply reflects nothing more than the cement shortage that has existed for the last couple of years", says UBS, "As the supply-and-demand balance returns to ‘normal', the risk is that so do margins". This all seems like a very sudden revelation. The risk for Rinker investors now is that UBS' downgrade is a trickle that sets off a flood. Rinker has fallen some 20% from its highs, along with the rest of the market in the current correction. The average target in the FN Arena database is still $22.59, some 34% above yesterday's close, and that's after we take UBS' drop from $25.00 to $18.50 into consideration! Either Rinker now becomes the greatest Buy of all time, or the brokers will begin to fall like nine-pins. Hold is always a much safer place to be when you hate to admit defeat.

RIN - Earnings and Dividends Forecast (cents per share) 
2006 2007 2008 2009 
EPS 106.7 132.5 142.5 149.6 
DPS 78.0 45.6 48.9 52.3 

EPS(c) PE Growth 
Year Ending 30-03-07 132.5 12.2 24.2% 
Year Ending 30-03-08 142.5 11.4 7.5% 

thx

MS


----------



## noirua (30 June 2006)

michael_selway said:
			
		

> The First Axe Falls On Darling Rinker
> FN Arena News - June 28 2006
> By Greg Peel
> 
> ...




An emormous post that was well worth reading and the "HOLD" comment at the end sums me up. RIN are now flirting with the lower level support around US$60 with a close today at US$60.35 on the NYSE. Some may be holding on for the A$50 cent capital return payout.


----------



## noirua (30 June 2006)

A lively start sent Rinker Group up 40 cents before falling away a bit as the NYSE bulls return.


----------



## Julia (30 June 2006)

I wouldn't get too carried away with today's rise just yet.  Further broker downgrade from a Buy to a Hold and FN Arena have repeated their suggestion that more brokers will follow suit.

Julia


----------



## noirua (30 June 2006)

Julia said:
			
		

> I wouldn't get too carried away with today's rise just yet.  Further broker downgrade from a Buy to a Hold and FN Arena have repeated their suggestion that more brokers will follow suit.
> 
> Julia




The situation does look a bit ragged as news varies from day to day on the housing front in the US. The Federal Reserve will probably continue to raise rates before they suddenly realise they have over done it again. Hopefully the Aussie versus Greenback struggle will favour the US currency.


----------



## JAK (30 June 2006)

Hi all,
Great forum with very useful information I wish I had come across it earlier.
Anyhow, I am hoping someone may be able to share their thoughts on whether Rinker will be able to make up the recent downward spiral, to levels at least over $21- over the next few mths.

With a long term view of at least 12mths+ and low risk shares,  I bought 500 RIN shares through ETrade in early May 06, at an avg price of A$21-, I hesitated but the Recommendation Consensus in ETrade (about 8 very credible brokers) suggested Moderate to very Strong Buy, except 1 that said Hold.

Having read the FN Arena post, I wonder what these analysts were doing at the time, actually having researched myself since then, the indicators are as clear as mud, what to do and when.

Between my 500 QBE and 500 RIN I've come close to $4,000 in losses....

Any thoughts or reassurances in laymans terms would be most appreciated.

Many thanks,  JAK


----------



## imaginator (6 July 2006)

RIN is a stock that follows the US market. I bought just 100 units of it at $21, couldn't stand it and had to let it go at $16.15.


----------



## michael_selway (6 July 2006)

imaginator said:
			
		

> RIN is a stock that follows the US market. I bought just 100 units of it at $21, couldn't stand it and had to let it go at $16.15.





Date: 4/7/2006 
Author: Henry Byrne 
Source: The Australian Financial Review --- Page: 19 

Shares in Australian-listed construction materials group, Rinker, have lost 25 per cent of their value over the last two months. On 26 April 2006 the shares peaked at $A22.22, but they closed at $A16.59 on 3 July. The majority of Rinker's earnings come from its US business, where the housing market has weakened. This has had a direct effect on its share price as well as shares in rivals, James Hardie Industries and Florida Rock. Some analysts have welcomed the selldown on the basis that Rinker was over-valued. For the most part, investors are positive about the company's prospects, expecting it to soon announce at least one acquisition 

thx

MS


----------



## Julia (7 July 2006)

JAK said:
			
		

> Hi all,
> Great forum with very useful information I wish I had come across it earlier.
> Anyhow, I am hoping someone may be able to share their thoughts on whether Rinker will be able to make up the recent downward spiral, to levels at least over $21- over the next few mths.
> 
> ...



Hello JAK

I also hold both QBE and RIN.  I'd also categorise myself as the same sort of investor as you.

I have no concerns about continuing to hold both these stocks at present.

They are both very well managed companies.

Julia


----------



## JAK (7 July 2006)

Thanks guys, much appreciated, my thought process has been to hold....since I did go into it long term....

All the best to all,  JAK


----------



## GreatPig (10 July 2006)

Julia said:
			
		

> I also hold both QBE and RIN.



So do I, but I'm watching them both closely.

They're both getting close to my sell level.

Cheers,
GP


----------



## michael_selway (11 July 2006)

GreatPig said:
			
		

> So do I, but I'm watching them both closely.
> 
> They're both getting close to my sell level.
> 
> ...




Its funny cause this was one of the stocks that was breaking out and peopel were buying at 20+, but i said it was overvalued (forecast growth was slowing alot % wise, less tan 10% pa) etc, now its back to fair value. 

Bascially the run up made people think it was going to repeat its past performance, of 60% growth last year on previous.

Earnings and Dividends Forecast (cents per share) 
2006 2007 2008 2009 
EPS 106.7 132.5 141.9 149.4 
DPS 78.0 45.6 48.4 51.6 

EPS(c) PE Growth 
Year Ending 30-03-07 132.5 12.2 24.2% 
Year Ending 30-03-08 141.9 11.4 7.1% 







CSR is another that rings a bell, actually many that "Noirua" likes conincidently, not too sure why    

thx

MS


----------



## JAK (11 July 2006)

GreatPig said:
			
		

> So do I, but I'm watching them both closely.
> 
> They're both getting close to my sell level.
> 
> ...




GP, what do you mean close to your sell level, are you saying sell and cut your losses, or sell and buy to break even later ? 
I am assuming you have bought high .....

An amateur investor trying to understand,  thanks,  JAK


----------



## GreatPig (11 July 2006)

Jak,

This is purely a personal thing.

I bought recently at $16.88 on the hope that RIN was turning back up, and have put a sell level at about $16.60 to $16.65, if it closes below that price.

I've chosen that sell level as it's just below the two recent lows in June, and also matches a support level back in January. To me, a close below that would indicate a higher probability of further drops rather than a turn back up.

But as I say, just my opinion and how I've decided to trade this particular stock on this occasion.

And the price is getting very close to that level right now.

Cheers,
GP


----------



## noirua (11 July 2006)

CSR is another that rings a bell, actually many that "Noirua" likes conincidently, not too sure why    

thx

MS[/QUOTE]

CSR are well down on their high, although todays confirmation of a 5% buy-back of shares should help the stock price come back. 
RIN have proved fairly disastrous of late and may have to wait for the Fed to reverse the present upward trend in interest rates. Still hopefull they will surprise once again when their first quarterly is revealed.


----------



## scsl (12 July 2006)

http://www.fnarena.com/index2.cfm?type=dsp_newsitem&n=6057B9B3-17A4-1130-F56645E84E912E57

this FNArena article talks of emerging value in RIN stock, after being heavily sold off in the recent correction.

important upcoming dates:

jul  18: release of 1st quarter trading update
jul  19: ex-div for $0.50 return of capital
aug 11: profit announcement??

please check all info.


----------



## noirua (13 July 2006)

scsl said:
			
		

> http://www.fnarena.com/index2.cfm?type=dsp_newsitem&n=6057B9B3-17A4-1130-F56645E84E912E57
> 
> this FNArena article talks of emerging value in RIN stock, after being heavily sold off in the recent correction.
> 
> ...




Yes, I quite like this post, having held on and getting the " told you so " feeling. FNArena, god bless 'em, are doing their best, but the downward trend looks quite strong. The run-up from March 2003 at $5.00 has been a consistant and solid one, the present fall has knocked this trend for six and the chart looks for a new trend.


----------



## BlackTie (13 July 2006)

Looks like RIN just break out from a descending triangle....  target price $14.15..


----------



## scsl (13 July 2006)

GreatPig said:
			
		

> Jak,
> 
> This is purely a personal thing.
> 
> ...



GP, did you sell your RIN stock today? 

...assuming the current price of $15.30, RIN has fallen about 5.3% in 4 trading days! are there any others who think that RIN has further to fall?

i bought at 15.66, 15.75, 16.81 (during the correction) and am starting to get worried.   i know that in the long run RIN should perform very well but am just concerned about the next few days...


----------



## GreatPig (13 July 2006)

Yes, I did.

(there was a typo in my previous message though - the stop was around $15.60, not $16.60).

Cheers,
GP


----------



## noirua (14 July 2006)

Rinker continue under pressure in the U.S. as markets slide on inflation fears as oil approaches US$77 per barrel. At US$57.01 at the close RIN have hit a new bearish signal with a sentiment score of 32.


----------



## noirua (14 July 2006)

Trading update for the Year ending 30th June 06 will be out next Tuesday 18th July 06.


----------



## BlackTie (14 July 2006)

Today the trading volumn is high... a clear breakout from a descending triangle...  anyone expecting there will be good news on Tues announcement?


----------



## scsl (15 July 2006)

according to Intersuisse, *RIN is wayyyyy too cheap*!

http://www.fnarena.com/index2.cfm?type=dsp_newsitem&n=662F6E69-17A4-1130-F5520FC4A23C61E1

RIN fell 9.1% this week, with everyone selling because of fears that lower-than-expected earnings and slowing growth  in the US will mean the same for RIN. RIN may turn out to be massively oversold once this correction is over...


----------



## michael_selway (15 July 2006)

scsl said:
			
		

> according to Intersuisse, *RIN is wayyyyy too cheap*!
> 
> http://www.fnarena.com/index2.cfm?type=dsp_newsitem&n=662F6E69-17A4-1130-F5520FC4A23C61E1
> 
> RIN fell 9.1% this week, with everyone selling because of fears that lower-than-expected earnings and slowing growth  in the US will mean the same for RIN. RIN may turn out to be massively oversold once this correction is over...




Do you hodl RIN?

thx

MS


----------



## scsl (16 July 2006)

michael_selway said:
			
		

> Do you hodl RIN?
> 
> thx
> 
> MS



yes, i bought at 15.66, 15.75, 16.81 when the stock was on the way down... im also looking to buy more this week.

i think that RIN might come out with good news this tuesday when it releases its quarterly update. something along the lines of "despite continued weakness in the US housing sector, we continue to believe that we can deliver shareholder value by increasing sales/profit and market share".

this extract is from Huntleys' Your Money Weekly:



> ...RIN has not yet experienced a cyclical contraction however *the balance sheet is in excellent shape to withstand and perhaps benefit.*



(Huntleys' believe it is a good buying opportunity up to $17.60! RIN last traded at a 16.6% discount to this.)

in the past, RIN management have delivered regular profit upgrades regardless of the strength in the US housing sector. who knows, this may continue to happen (although with a little less frequency)...


----------



## michael_selway (16 July 2006)

scsl said:
			
		

> yes, i bought at 15.66, 15.75, 16.81 when the stock was on the way down... im also looking to buy more this week.
> 
> (Huntleys' believe it is a good buying opportunity up to $17.60! RIN last traded at a 16.6% discount to this.)
> 
> in the past, RIN management have delivered regular profit upgrades regardless of the strength in the US housing sector. who knows, this may continue to happen (although with a little less frequency)...




thats true, but do u know what, im predicting the first ever profit downgrade by RIN for the next half year results, i know its against the trend in the past, but thats how i see it unless it does M&A, then things may change

Earnings and Dividends Forecast (cents per share) 
2006 2007 2008 2009 
EPS 106.7 127.2 139.0 149.5 
DPS 78.0 46.3 48.1 49.5 

EPS(c) PE Growth 
Year Ending 30-03-07 127.2 11.5 19.3% 
Year Ending 30-03-08 139.0 10.6 9.3% 

thx

MS


----------



## pacer (17 July 2006)

I was tempted to go long CFD's  just before this latest round of gravity on the SP, real glad I diddn't !!!!!!!!!!  Used number 1 rule...the trend is your friend, still waiting for the turn around.
Anyone know if the 50c payout applies to CFD's aswell?, cause that'd make it worth while buying this week.


----------



## michael_selway (17 July 2006)

pacer said:
			
		

> I was tempted to go long CFD's  just before this latest round of gravity on the SP, real glad I diddn't !!!!!!!!!!  Used number 1 rule...the trend is your friend, still waiting for the turn around.
> Anyone know if the 50c payout applies to CFD's aswell?, cause that'd make it worth while buying this week.




http://www.smh.com.au/news/Business...-million-shares/2006/07/17/1152988464870.html

Sharebuyback again

it means they arent looking to grow, and ist on market

thx

MS


----------



## Fab (17 July 2006)

Maybe a stupid question but what is the obvious benefit of a share buyback ???


----------



## Realist (17 July 2006)

Fab said:
			
		

> Maybe a stupid question but what is the obvious benefit of a share buyback ???




I am cynical about share buy backs.

One of the obvious benefits of a buyback is the directors of a company can issue themselves and their mates a massive amount of share options, when they do that though they dillute the EPS - because more shares in the market equals lower earnings per share of course.

So they buy them back later - the buy back increases EPS cause there are less shares in the market and therefore it increases the share price.

Who wins?  The directors.

The shareholders are happy, but they forget that there should not have been so many shares out there to buy back, so in reality they don't win. It only seems that way.

I am not saying Rinker do this, have not even looked at their figures, but some companies do though. And first did so decades ago.

Rinker should be buying properties not Rinker shares in my mind.


----------



## Julia (17 July 2006)

Realist

Can you expand on your statement:

"Rinker should be buying properties......"

Thanks

Julia


----------



## Realist (17 July 2006)

Julia said:
			
		

> Realist
> 
> Can you expand on your statement:
> 
> ...




All I am saying is I am wary of share buy backs. I do not know what they should be doing with their money having spent no time studying Rinker, anything but share buy backs IMHO.

Actually looking at the outstanding shares, I probably take it back - it does not seem that directors are issuing options to themselves all over the place.

Sorry it was just a rant, RIN seem to have no issue with ever increasing outstanding shares.  Many other companies do though.


----------



## Realist (17 July 2006)

Looking at RIN's fundamentals quickly it looks a good buy, and directors do not seem to be issuing themselves large options.

I take it all back, I'd buy RIN by the looks of it probably.

(I'm still suspicious of buy backs though)


----------



## noirua (18 July 2006)

Excellent! Provided Rinker can buy-back shares at around these levels. They probably decided that the best investment, in the sector, is infact Rinker Group and they probably think they are about to buy $1 for just 75 cents - or is it they're afraid of the stock continuing its fall to $12?


----------



## scsl (18 July 2006)

pacer said:
			
		

> I was tempted to go long CFD's  just before this latest round of gravity on the SP, real glad I diddn't !!!!!!!!!!  Used number 1 rule...the trend is your friend, still waiting for the turn around.
> Anyone know if the 50c payout applies to CFD's aswell?, cause that'd make it worth while buying this week.



yes, provided you buy the CFDs before 19 july (ex-div date), your CFD provider will credit your account on the evening of the 19th - that's what my IG stockbroker told me so i'm assuming it goes for all CFD providers.


----------



## michael_selway (18 July 2006)

scsl said:
			
		

> yes, provided you buy the CFDs before 19 july (ex-div date), your CFD provider will credit your account on the evening of the 19th - that's what my IG stockbroker told me so i'm assuming it goes for all CFD providers.




http://www.smh.com.au/news/Business/Rinkers-net-profit-up-14/2006/07/18/1153166347820.html



> Rinker's net profit up 14%
> Email Print Normal font Large font July 18, 2006 - 8:14AM
> 
> Advertisement
> ...




*As previously indicated, earnings per ordinary share are expected to be 13% to 21% up over the result for the year ended March 2006 – excluding one-off gains from last year’s divestments and the financing impact of the special dividend and proposed capital return (estimated at two US cents per share). EPS is therefore forecast to range from 84 to 90 US cents. (Note: This excludes the impact of the buyback just announced).*

Earnings and Dividends Forecast (cents per share) 
2006 2007 2008 2009 
EPS 106.7 127.2 139.0 149.1 
DPS 78.0 46.3 48.1 49.5 

EPS(c) PE Growth 
Year Ending 30-03-07 127.2 11.6 19.3% 
Year Ending 30-03-08 139.0 10.6 9.3% 

thx

MS


----------



## noirua (18 July 2006)

Rinker on a stock watch list: http://www.smh.com.au/news/Business/Stocks-to-watch-14/2006/07/18/1153166348671.html


----------



## noirua (19 July 2006)

Good grief, I seem to have stayed on the Rinker lift that is heading for the 14$ floor. Only pleasures are the 90 cents divi's and 50 cents capital return, the latter arrives next month.
Closed in the US at US$53.68 with the sentiment score at a disastrous 26.

The buy-back does not restart until mid-August and this level looks even more disastrous on the chart. Open water ahead or is it white water rapids.


----------



## 3 veiws of a secret (19 July 2006)

Well I've got on the Rinker bandwagon @ $13.73......was today a normal days trading? :headshake


----------



## noirua (19 July 2006)

3 veiws of a secret said:
			
		

> Well I've got on the Rinker bandwagon @ $13.73......was today a normal days trading? :headshake





NO! It wasn't a normal trading day as Rinker went XC the 50 cent capital return, payable on 17th August. The XC remains against the stock during the trading day the company went XC and should be removed at the start of trading on Thursday.


----------



## noirua (20 July 2006)

Rinker started trading on the NYSE at US$52.29 and rose to US$55.35 before falling away in the last hour to US$54.83, up US$1.15. Trading amounted to 113,100 ADR's.


----------



## 3 veiws of a secret (20 July 2006)

noirua said:
			
		

> Rinker started trading on the NYSE at US$52.29 and rose to US$55.35 before falling away in the last hour to US$54.83, up US$1.15. Trading amounted to 113,100 ADR's.




Noirua...............
Any personal thoughts where it might end today?


----------



## michael_selway (20 July 2006)

3 veiws of a secret said:
			
		

> Noirua...............
> Any personal thoughts where it might end today?




RIN RINKER GROUP LIMITED    Overnight Price: $13.56 
*ABN Amro rates the stock as Downgrade to Hold from Buy - Target $15.58 (was $25.00). * A revised view on the US housing market has flowed through into cuts to earnings estimates for the company, the broker''s net profit forecasts falling in FY07 by 10.2% to US$797.1m, in FY08 by 19.4% to US$945.9m and in FY09 by 21.8% to US$947.6m. 
The changes to forecasts represent a combination of rising costs and falling volumes, the broker now expecting the key states of Florida, Arizona and Nevada to decline faster than the national average in coming years. 

As a result the broker has downgraded its rating on the stock. 

Target price is $15.58 Current Price is $13.56 Difference:$2.02 - (brackets indicate current price is over target). If RIN meets the ABN Amro target it will return approximately 15% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss). 

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

RIN RINKER GROUP LIMITED    Overnight Price: $14.25 
Credit Suisse rates the stock as Upgrade to Outperform - The result was in line with the broker’s expectations, but earnings guidance came in below consensus so the analysts flag possible market downgrades. 
Due to potential headwinds, the broker has lowered its target on the stock by 50c to $18.50, but raised its recommendation to Outperform, likely as a result of the recent share price fall. 


Target price is $18.50 Current Price is $14.25 Difference:$4.25 - (brackets indicate current price is over target). If RIN meets the Credit Suisse target it will return approximately 30% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss). 


--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Deutsche Bank rates the stock as Buy - The broker has reduced the price target from $24.04 to $17.93 in response to a drop in US peer multiples from 18.2x to 13.2x. However, the broker remians confident in RIN, noting firstly that it is trading at a significant discount to European peers, and that concrete prices in the US tend to rise during a housing downturn. 
The broker notes reaffirmation of guidance at 18-23% growth does not take into account likely CPI price rises in FY07. 


Target price is $17.93 Current Price is $14.25 Difference:$3.68 - (brackets indicate current price is over target). If RIN meets the Deutsche Bank target it will return approximately 26% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss). 


--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

JP Morgan rates the stock as Overweight - The broker notes the quarterly result was slightly above its forecast but slightly below market consensus, which the reaffirmed earnings guidance shows were too high. 
Following announcement of a 5% share buyback the broker has lifted its EPS estimates in FY07 by 0.8% to US87.8c and in FY08 by 1.8% to US96.7c. 

In the broker''s view the current share price factors in the potential downside earnings risk. 


Target price is $21.03 Current Price is $14.25 Difference:$6.78 - (brackets indicate current price is over target). If RIN meets the JP Morgan target it will return approximately 48% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss). 


--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Added
Macquarie rates the stock as Outperform - Broker keeps the faith in the company''s strong fundamentals, but also believes new acquisitions are needed to get rid of the current monkey on Rinker''s back. 
Rinker is able to debt finance an acquisition up to US$2bn, Macquarie believes. 


Target price is $21.50 Current Price is $14.25 Difference:$7.25 - (brackets indicate current price is over target). If RIN meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately 51% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss). 


--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Merrill Lynch rates the stock as Buy - The analysts see the result as strong and view the stock as attractively priced at current levels. 
However, they have reduced their target on the stock by 6% to $18.00, due to lower earnings and multiple expectations. 


Target price is $18.00 Current Price is $14.25 Difference:$3.75 - (brackets indicate current price is over target). If RIN meets the Merrill Lynch target it will return approximately 26% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss). 


--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

SB Citigroup rates the stock as Upgrade to Buy from Hold, Medium Risk - Target $17.35 (was $21.05). The broker notes quarterly profit of US$206m was about 10% below expectations, with margin growth in aggregates also somewhat disappointing in its view. 
To factor in a market that appears less bullish than previously expected the broker has trimmed its earnings estimates, with EPS in FY07 down 3.9% to US92.6c, in FY08 down 7.3% to US96.5c and in FY09 down 9.9% to US98.7c. 

It suggests at current levels there is now limited downside especially given an upcoming share buyback and a strong balance sheet, so the broker has upgraded its rating. 

Valuation is $17.35. 


Target price is $17.35 Current Price is $14.25 Difference:$3.10 - (brackets indicate current price is over target). If RIN meets the SB Citigroup target it will return approximately 22% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss). 


--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

UBS rates the stock as Neutral 2 - While the analysts see the quarter as excellent, they are of the view that US housing concerns will continue to dominate and that margin pressures are likely to rise. 

Target price is $17.55 Current Price is $14.25 Difference:$3.30 - (brackets indicate current price is over target). If RIN meets the UBS target it will return approximately 23% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------



> US gloom for Rinker
> 
> Back
> Date: 20/7/2006
> ...




thx

MS


----------



## 3 veiws of a secret (21 July 2006)

Mr Selway !
Many thanks indeed for info supplied ....... Seems like their's action on this stock ie upward and onward, now that it has reached it's lows. Shall trade RIN closely today.
Adios


----------



## noirua (21 July 2006)

michael_selway said:
			
		

> RIN RINKER GROUP LIMITED    Overnight Price: $13.56
> *ABN Amro rates the stock as Downgrade to Hold from Buy - Target $15.58 (was $25.00). * A revised view on the US housing market has flowed through into cuts to earnings estimates for the company, the broker''s net profit forecasts falling in FY07 by 10.2% to US$797.1m, in FY08 by 19.4% to US$945.9m and in FY09 by 21.8% to US$947.6m.
> The changes to forecasts represent a combination of rising costs and falling volumes, the broker now expecting the key states of Florida, Arizona and Nevada to decline faster than the national average in coming years.
> 
> ...




Rinker do seem to suffer from a " trailing analysts syndrome " and they may well change their minds a short distance down the line. After the Fed's remarks on new property building and demand, in the States, there isn't really all that much to go for and RIN may well trade sideways until Bernanke speaks again on the subject.


----------



## 3 veiws of a secret (21 July 2006)

3 veiws of a secret said:
			
		

> ....... Seems like their's action on this stock ie upward and onward, now that it has reached it's lows. Shall trade RIN closely today.
> Adios




....errrr "Loose lips, sink ships"  I think I stuffed this one up for today.Emotional greed got the upper handle here .Still don't think its a monkey on my shoulders at these prices ! :twak:


----------



## Fab (21 July 2006)

I understand that RIN went XC (not too sure what that means) in the last few days. I understand that might be some kind of special payment back to shareholder. Can anyone let me know if new dividend or special shareholder return are due to happen soon and if yes when should they be credited ?

Cheers


----------



## 3 veiws of a secret (21 July 2006)

Fab said:
			
		

> I understand that RIN went XC (not too sure what that means) in the last few days. I understand that might be some kind of special payment back to shareholder. Can anyone let me know if new dividend or special shareholder return are due to happen soon and if yes when should they be credited ?
> 
> Cheers



Type Cents per share =Final 64.00   
Franked %= 22 
 Ex Dividend Date  =05 Jun, 06 

Dividend Pay Date =04 Jul, 06 

c:


----------



## Julia (21 July 2006)

Fab said:
			
		

> I understand that RIN went XC (not too sure what that means) in the last few days. I understand that might be some kind of special payment back to shareholder. Can anyone let me know if new dividend or special shareholder return are due to happen soon and if yes when should they be credited ?
> 
> Cheers




Fab

This refers to a capital return to shareholders of 50 cents per share.
From memory I think around 25 July.

Julia


----------



## Fab (22 July 2006)

Thanks Julia ,

I have currently 700 RIN shares does that mean I can expect $350 to be paid to me on the 25/07 as part of this capital return ?
I also understand they are planning a share buy back soon, can anyone explain me the benefit of a share buy back as my understanding is most of the time this is done at a price below market price ?

Thanks for your help


----------



## Nick Radge (22 July 2006)

Might still have some weakness yet.


----------



## scsl (22 July 2006)

Fab said:
			
		

> Thanks Julia ,
> 
> I have currently 700 RIN shares does that mean I can expect $350 to be paid to me on the 25/07 as part of this capital return ?
> I also understand they are planning a share buy back soon, can anyone explain me the benefit of a share buy back as my understanding is most of the time this is done at a price below market price ?
> ...



Fab, 25 july is the record date for the capital return. it will be paid to you on the 17 august. 

http://www.rinker.com.au/InvestorRelations/EventCalendar/



rinker opted on this capital return for several reasons:



> 19. Rinker's stated purpose in making the return of capital is to achieve the following commercial objectives:
> 
> · to move interest cover and gearing ratios towards target levels, substantially reducing Rinker's current under-gearing;
> 
> ...



this was taken from the ATO ruling of the capital return.
http://law.ato.gov.au/atolaw/print.htm?DocID=CLR/CR200649/NAT/ATO/00001

cheers,
scsl


----------



## Fab (22 July 2006)

Scsl,

Thanks very much for your feedback this is exactly what I was after. Even though RIN has been going down heavily recently I am very pleased at all the money they have been paying out in the last couple of months. Including the payment due on the 17/08/06 I will have received $830 for 700 shares . Not bad at all for shares that were purchased 10 years ago at $4.50


----------



## scsl (22 July 2006)

Fab said:
			
		

> Scsl,
> 
> Thanks very much for your feedback this is exactly what I was after. Even though RIN has been going down heavily recently I am very pleased at all the money they have been paying out in the last couple of months. Including the payment due on the 17/08/06 I will have received $830 for 700 shares . Not bad at all for shares that were purchased 10 years ago at $4.50



what do you mean 10 years ago? from memory, RIN started trading in 2003. did you somehow get your RIN shares from holding CSR shares, which you may have bought 10 years ago? ...just curious thats all


----------



## Fab (23 July 2006)

I had CSR shares that got split few years ago into CSR and RIN. So far the return on them has been very good. Not sure if it will continue so.


----------



## noirua (24 July 2006)

RIN continue down and may test the $13 level shortly - the Board of Directors must be a little worried, and the rapid decline, in share price,  appears to have caught them on the hop.


----------



## 3 veiws of a secret (24 July 2006)

noirua said:
			
		

> RIN continue down and may test the $13 level shortly - the Board of Directors must be a little worried, and the rapid decline, in share price,  appears to have caught them on the hop.




I think I'm not the only person caught in this 3 legged race to climb on board, looks like this one is going lower, then 13 bucks. When it reached 13.50 with abt 120K shares on offer I gulped,when snapped up in seconds!


----------



## dubiousinfo (24 July 2006)

While the share price looks like it will go lower, it's worth remembering that only residential building has slowed. Non-residential building has not slowed & it's unlikely that profits for this financial year will drop anywhere near as much as the sp


----------



## noirua (25 July 2006)

Rinker have moved up with the sector, in the States, and providing Uncle Sam continues to head North, we will not have the dead cat bounce theory thrown in our faces.


----------



## 3 veiws of a secret (25 July 2006)

noirua said:
			
		

> Rinker ...... providing Uncle Sam continues to head North, we will not have the dead cat bounce theory thrown in our faces.




I do agree with you (Noirua)......I just felt peeved I read the lows incorrectly and entered a few days too early ,but at least I'm on the magic bus,RIN & GTP,have been speculative buys for me ,but more so with GTP.Both cheap as chips ,just wish I had more bars of gold to auction.
Geeeeee RIN $13.09 yesterday,tell me its either a bargain or a give away!


----------



## michael_selway (1 August 2006)

3 veiws of a secret said:
			
		

> I do agree with you (Noirua)......I just felt peeved I read the lows incorrectly and entered a few days too early ,but at least I'm on the magic bus,RIN & GTP,have been speculative buys for me ,but more so with GTP.Both cheap as chips ,just wish I had more bars of gold to auction.
> Geeeeee RIN $13.09 yesterday,tell me its either a bargain or a give away!




they lowered forecasts again and i still dont knwo why dividend is so low compared to EPS % wise, hidden capex costs maybe?

Earnings and Dividends Forecast (cents per share) 
2006 2007 2008 2009 
EPS 106.7 123.4 132.4 138.6 
DPS 78.0 45.0 46.5 50.4 

thx

MS


----------



## Realist (1 August 2006)

RIN is now fairly valued based on the last 4 years earnings.

And with growth of about 16% p.a. up to now it would be cheap if you did not look foward.

The chart may be a little misleading as it has recently paid a 64 cent dividend, so you astrologers may be reading it a bit incorrectly.

They look after investors with an excellent dividend policy of paying back 35% to shareholders, and they're implementing a buy-back which looks legit and fair and in the shareholders interest. 

I'd say they are a good longterm buy now at under $13.  Infact I may get me some today at $12.95. Although I will wait and hope for further drops!


----------



## michael_selway (1 August 2006)

Realist said:
			
		

> RIN is now fairly valued based on the last 4 years earnings.
> 
> And with growth of about 16% p.a. up to now it would be cheap if you did not look foward.
> 
> ...





You have to look at the derivative, ie 16% pa is current velocity only

but if you look at the forecasts, its slowing down

Earnings and Dividends Forecast (cents per share) 
2006 2007 2008 2009 
EPS 106.7 123.4 132.4 138.6 
DPS 78.0 45.0 46.5 50.4 

138.6/132.4 = 1.0468 = 4.7% growth

thx

MS


----------



## Realist (1 August 2006)

michael_selway said:
			
		

> You have to look at the derivative, ie 16% pa is current velocity only
> 
> but if you look at the forecasts, its slowing down
> 
> ...






Forecasts are just that, forecasts = predictions.  Not facts!

Any analyst who thinks he can predict what will happen exactly to RIN between 2008 and 2009 is dreaming!

Some Dow and Nasdaq companies are now refusing to release future earnings 'predictions' becuase of this very problem, analysts and investors take them, too seriously.   It is like a football expert predicting who will win the NRL next year - they may be experts, in the know, and smart (unlikely) but they can not predict what will happen in the future. No-one can.  My guess and your guess of 2009 earnings will eb as good as anyones. Cause it is undetermined and purely speculative what will happen in the future.

However these predictions and the profit downgrade have been factored into the price already.

RIN at $12.95 is a prudent buy and hold investment I would think based on known results.


----------



## ducati916 (1 August 2006)

From page one, the fundamentals told the story a long time ago.





			
				ducati916 said:
			
		

> *Julia*
> 
> I posted this on the 09-02-2006 on reef
> 
> ...


----------



## michael_selway (1 August 2006)

ducati916 said:
			
		

> From page one, the fundamentals told the story a long time ago.




Quote from another forum



			
				typehigh said:
			
		

> went to a training seminar on the asx,put on by the suppliers of the charting package I have.
> The guy running it ,who claims to be a good analyst(his claim)looked at the chicken entrails on rin,claiming he new nothing other than the charts,reckons rin could be in some kind of trouble not generally known.
> On the other hand he claimed MBL had been heavily bought by other Maquarie funds,thus driving the share price higher,with other fund managers following their lead to maintain their weighting.
> He sees mbl staying around $60.00-$62.00,maybe a bit less because the fund buying has stopped and so the shares have dropped.
> ...




thx

MS


----------



## noirua (1 August 2006)

ADR US$50.65 is the price that Rinker start trading on the NYSE in 90 minutes - equates to A$13.21 per share at 0.7664. The buy-back of 45 million shares starts 18th August on the ASX.


----------



## Fab (2 August 2006)

WHat will be the benefit of participating in the buy back ?


----------



## 3 veiws of a secret (2 August 2006)

Fab said:
			
		

> WHat will be the benefit of participating in the buy back ?




Are you refering to Rinker the Company or Rinker the shareholder?


----------



## noirua (3 August 2006)

Rinker trade at ADR $48.69 - the sentiment index stands at an all-time low of 20 - and has fallen decisively below the US$50 level. 

A report on Bloomberg placed Rinker as a buy, purely due to the opinion that the stock is now oversold and prospects are better than some, of the many analysts predict.

 I'm tempted to buy a few more but do not like the Middle East situation.


----------



## 3 veiws of a secret (3 August 2006)

noirua said:
			
		

> I'm tempted to buy a few more but do not like the Middle East situation.




You make it sound like your not going to trade because of the conflicts in the Levante ,but why not? Also Rinker gains a large of mount of income from North America,and a dribble from OZ. Happy trading !!! yesterday was bad day in my books!


----------



## noirua (3 August 2006)

3 veiws of a secret said:
			
		

> You make it sound like your not going to trade because of the conflicts in the Levante ,but why not? Also Rinker gains a large of mount of income from North America,and a dribble from OZ. Happy trading !!! yesterday was bad day in my books!




I changed my mind and added a few more Rinker shares first thing today. The outlook in the last quarterly report makes them look good, imho.


----------



## 3 veiws of a secret (3 August 2006)

noirua said:
			
		

> I changed my mind and added a few more Rinker shares first thing today. The outlook in the last quarterly report makes them look good, imho.




You've done well ,at least you've confirmed my paranoia is only temporary.My graph re: RIN's decline looks like Mt Doom,I just hope the revolt from shareholders has decipated.Looking forward to overnight prices in NY.


----------



## michael_selway (3 August 2006)

3 veiws of a secret said:
			
		

> You've done well ,at least you've confirmed my paranoia is only temporary.My graph re: RIN's decline looks like Mt Doom,I just hope the revolt from shareholders has decipated.Looking forward to overnight prices in NY.




Do you think it will drop more in the ST?

thx

MS


----------



## swingstar (3 August 2006)

I'm short RIN. Technically there is no bottom in sight, so I don't see any reason for it to reverse. And I'm very bearish on the US housing market.


----------



## noirua (3 August 2006)

swingstar said:
			
		

> I'm short RIN. Technically there is no bottom in sight, so I don't see any reason for it to reverse. And I'm very bearish on the US housing market.




Interest rates rose to 4.75% in the UK as growth has bounded in the last 3 months. Rises in Gas and electricity prices have fuelled inflation.
Yes, I'm bearish on the US housing market in some areas, not as bearish as yourself, but Rinker appear to be selling into stronger areas. 
If the share price was $20 they'd be expensive, at under $13 it may prove to be a different matter.


----------



## swingstar (4 August 2006)

noirua said:
			
		

> Interest rates rose to 4.75% in the UK as growth has bounded in the last 3 months. Rises in Gas and electricity prices have fuelled inflation.



That can't be good for RIN? 



> Yes, I'm bearish on the US housing market in some areas, not as bearish as yourself, but Rinker appear to be selling into stronger areas.
> If the share price was $20 they'd be expensive, at under $13 it may prove to be a different matter.



I don't use FA at all, but I am interested in current economics, and there are many reasons for my thoughts on the US housing market. Of course it's just opinion. 

Technically though, there has been a lot of volume recently which has made it a bit choppy, but it's still downtrending and even more interestingly has been trending against the recent XJO rallies. Since I am bearish on the whole market, I don't see any reason for RIN to go against it if it can't go with the tide now. 

If I'm wrong, my stop gets hit and I'm out - no big deal. But I don't see any reason for a bottom, both technically (although Nick's EW analysis is interesting) and fundamentally (at least as far as their revenue from housing goes). 

Just my


----------



## 3 veiws of a secret (4 August 2006)

michael_selway said:
			
		

> Do you think it will drop more in the ST?
> 
> thx
> 
> MS




Unfortunatetly the market follows it's on rules,but *I hope * it's stabilsed ,sure 50 cents (in OZ) this way or that ,but who am I to predict accurate thoughts for others.


----------



## dubiousinfo (4 August 2006)

Nicks comments need to be considered in relation to short term price.

However, in respect of revenue & earnings in the medium term it also needs to be considered that the products produced by RIN are used considerably more extensively in non residential construction than in residential construction.

While residential construction has slowed, non residential construction starts to Jun 06 have increased in both Aus & US. Also keep in mind that non residential projects span 1 to 2 years once commenced.

In respect of Ducati's comments on the reduction of spending on PPE, This is a valid point, but I think more information is required to prove the case. The products manufacted by RIN require large capital outlays to establish & upgrade, however there are extensive periods between upgrades which only require maintenance and do not require the same capital outlay. I am not aware of how the reduction was achieved & would like to hear if anyone has details.

I dont hold RIN just my


----------



## scsl (10 August 2006)

did anyone notice RIN today? while the market fell 1.20%, RIN held up pretty well and ended down 5 cents (0.4%).

i was almost certain RIN would fall over 2% (as it has been accustomed to lately). the pause in US rates will help RIN but the slowing growth in the US (which was partly why the Fed left it unchanged) won't.


----------



## noirua (11 August 2006)

RIN continues its little bout of strength on the NYSE today - ADR's$49.49, up 54 cents.


----------



## Sean K (14 August 2006)

Talk of a French construction company eyeing off RIN has added a floor to it's sp by the look of it. Bargain hunting time perhaps??

Macquarie Funds Management senior adviser Sean Conlan noted a week or so ago, 

"Rinker has in the past been an acquirer, but at these levels Lafarge may be a likely bidder for Rinker," Mr Conlan said. "The Rinker share price has been sold off over 30 per cent in the last few weeks, but it has been way overdone and bargain hunters are coming into the market in anticipation of a possible takeover."

(I don't hold)


----------



## Fab (14 August 2006)

WOW. Lafarge is a great French group with a lot of cash and expertise in this sector sounds like this got the potential of putting a rocket under the sp of RIN if this rumour is true


----------



## pacer (14 August 2006)

Tradding rule#27..........buy on rumor, sell on fact....keep the rumour mill going.......give us a site to go to.


----------



## noirua (14 August 2006)

Rinker Group are certainly looking like a good gamble on these Lafarge rumours. I've finished my buying and look forward to a reasonable get out opportunity shortly.


----------



## Realist (15 August 2006)

I took the plunge, put my money where my mouth is and bought 200 RIN shares at $12.89 today.

:


----------



## michael_selway (15 August 2006)

Realist said:
			
		

> I took the plunge, put my money where my mouth is and bought 200 RIN shares at $12.89 today.
> 
> :




hehe you didnt buy much

but imo this one will be hard to see which direction it will go

thx

MS


----------



## Fab (16 August 2006)

A bit worrying that it is going done on a day like today. I am holding nevertheless, it sounds oversold to me 


----------



## Realist (16 August 2006)

michael_selway said:
			
		

> hehe you didnt buy much
> 
> but imo this one will be hard to see which direction it will go
> 
> ...





Yeah, I know, just a few to add to my collection.

Down to $12.87 today.

I'm down a whole $4.     

This is a buy and hold of course, it may go down slightly more, but I'm guessing around $13 is a good buy.


----------



## NettAssets (16 August 2006)

Don't know if this is relevantfrom FA









*More Competition For Rinker* 
Rinker competitor CRH is building new cement capacity in Florida. UBS has taken the opportunity to chop its Rinker target price - again. 
John


----------



## Freeballinginawetsuit (16 August 2006)

I admit RIN have a currently low SP, no doubt lots of punters thought it was low weeks earlier as well and they have been burnt. I think RIN will have a fairly hard landing due to their exposure in the US building market and an equally hard recovery to a decent SP. Long term returns on a purchase in RIN shares even at oversold current share prices are minimal. I would recommend sticking away from RIN with a bargepole. If you are considering RIN due to a low SP why wouldnt you chose to buy DOW stocks instead?.


----------



## Realist (17 August 2006)

$13.04 today, general market news out of US in general is quite good. Nasdaq up nicely past 2 days, Dow up a bit.

Hopefully I got into RIN near the bottom, I always thought about $13 was a fair price for what is a good company, with the shareholders interest at heart - buy backs, good dividends, no dillution from options etc. its a nice buy and hold I think.


----------



## Sean K (17 August 2006)

I hope that takeover rumour hangs around for you too Realist. Or better still, happens!


----------



## Realist (17 August 2006)

Freeballinginawetsuit said:
			
		

> If you are considering RIN due to a low SP why wouldnt you chose to buy DOW stocks instead?.




RIN makes profits, does not dillute their shares with large options grants etc, they pay 35% of profits back to shareholders via dividends, they've made huge profits past 5 years, they're implementing a buyback, infact the shares outstanding each year decreases, and the price is now quite low. They are a possible takeover target.

DOW has announced they are making a loss and there are more and more shares outstanding each year - dilluted profits.

Big difference IMHO.

If profits go down that is one thing, a loss is another though.


----------



## shinobi346 (17 August 2006)

NettAssets said:
			
		

> Don't know if this is relevantfrom FA
> 
> 
> 
> ...




One reason for the huge drop in Rin's SP has been the negative outlook on the US market. So the willingness of the competition to invest more into the industry must mean they are looking positively at the US market in the near future.


----------



## Realist (18 August 2006)

Up to $13.62 today.

That is quite a move in 2 days.

Looks like it's onwards and upwards from here....


----------



## noirua (19 August 2006)

Rinker have closed the week at ADR US$51.23 with the sentiment index recovering to 40.


----------



## Freeballinginawetsuit (19 August 2006)

Realist said:
			
		

> RIN makes profits, does not dillute their shares with large options grants etc, they pay 35% of profits back to shareholders via dividends, they've made huge profits past 5 years, they're implementing a buyback, infact the shares outstanding each year decreases, and the price is now quite low. They are a possible takeover target.
> 
> DOW has announced they are making a loss and there are more and more shares outstanding each year - dilluted profits.
> 
> ...




RIN exposure/business interests are much different to DOW. 
Downer made a mistake/underquoted on the Iluka construction job in SA.Every business makes mistakes, DOW SP got punished instantly & probably overdone. If this was taken out of DOW bottom line they actually made a profit for the year. DOW are an engineering company with heavy concerns/ties in the industrial/materials sector. Not a bad industry to be in in the present climate.
RIN are exposed primarily to the housing market and mainly in the US. How could you posably prefer RIN business exposure over DOW.

DOW has risen 10% since its SP hammering a few days back, quick rebound. DOW might chart a good rebound from here in.

RIN chart since May looks scary, it has no proven support level(maybe $13 ish but $16 also seemed a support level). If the US Building market lands hard and sideways for years, so will RIN SP.

I agree RIN is a well managed sound company. I am just staing it may take ages to get a return off their SP, certainly for holders above $17. Better buys than RIN on the market.RIN may be a good long position


----------



## tour (23 August 2006)

RIN is now buying back shares   . their max target is to get back 45,000,000. any1 got an opinion on what sp to let go. to be i belief 13.87(current) is still too cheap. my target would be around $15


----------



## Realist (23 August 2006)

Freeballinginawetsuit said:
			
		

> RIN exposure/business interests are much different to DOW.
> Downer made a mistake/underquoted on the Iluka construction job in SA.Every business makes mistakes, DOW SP got punished instantly & probably overdone. If this was taken out of DOW bottom line they actually made a profit for the year. DOW are an engineering company with heavy concerns/ties in the industrial/materials sector. Not a bad industry to be in in the present climate.
> RIN are exposed primarily to the housing market and mainly in the US. How could you posably prefer RIN business exposure over DOW.
> 
> ...





Charts, schmarts, farts,  support levels, and charts are for astrologers. RIN was cheap at $12.89 when I bought it, that was obvious.  Perpetual Australia's biggest super investor agreed and spent $130,000,000 on buying RIN, there are dividends to come, a buyback happening, and it is a potential takeover target.

Dow, schmow, it made a loss, I'm not interested in it at all.


----------



## ducati916 (23 August 2006)

*Realist* 



> RIN was cheap at $12.89




Opinion?
Or, have you calculated the intrinsic value per share?

If you have calculated the value, what is that calculated value?


jog on
d998


----------



## ducati916 (23 August 2006)

*Realist* 



> Dow, schmow, it made a loss, I'm not interested in it at all.




Interesting.
Actually, it wrote down Receivables.
With it's drop in price, due to the market's lack of understanding, DOW, may in point of fact represent an undervaluation.

I presume you are off calculating some intrinsic values for RIN

jog on
d998


----------



## michael_selway (23 August 2006)

Realist said:
			
		

> Charts, schmarts, farts,  support levels, and charts are for astrologers. RIN was cheap at $12.89 when I bought it, that was obvious.  Perpetual Australia's biggest super investor agreed and spent $130,000,000 on buying RIN, there are dividends to come, a buyback happening, and it is a potential takeover target.
> 
> Dow, schmow, it made a loss, I'm not interested in it at all.




DOW might have been ok to buy as well, as the loss was only due to a "one off" thing

thx

MS


----------



## Realist (23 August 2006)

ducati916 said:
			
		

> *Realist*
> 
> 
> 
> ...





Yep the Market Cap should be approximately 16,321M.


----------



## Realist (23 August 2006)

ducati916 said:
			
		

> *Realist*
> 
> 
> 
> ...




I don't invest in companies that make losses.

I don't care why they made losses, everyone has different excuses, I am not interested in hearing them.


----------



## NettAssets (23 August 2006)

Realist said:
			
		

> I don't invest in companies that make losses.




Would you trade it Realist.?
Thanks
John


----------



## ducati916 (23 August 2006)

*Realist* 

So $17.69~ per share for RIN
I'll break it down myself and see if I agree with you. I'll use your purchase price of $12.89. As previously posted viz. RIN, I think this is a good company, it was simply overpriced, whether it is undervalued at $12.89 remains to be seen.



> don't invest in companies that make losses.
> 
> I don't care why they made losses, everyone has different excuses, I am not interested in hearing them.




A rather closed mind approach to investing.
GAAP losses, need not be real losses, any more than GAAP profits, need be real profits.

Your analysis seems somewhat in the box, especially for one who advocates the principals of value investing.

jog on
d998


----------



## Realist (23 August 2006)

NettAssets said:
			
		

> Would you trade it Realist.?
> Thanks
> John





Nah.


The point of trading is to jump on a rocket just as it takes off, and jump off it after a short but quick ride, just before it crashes back down to earth.

Dow may slowly rise, it aint gonna skyrocket. Or crash further.  It is investment worthy, but not worthy enough for me!


----------



## Realist (23 August 2006)

ducati916 said:
			
		

> *Realist*
> A rather closed mind approach to investing.
> GAAP losses, need not be real losses, any more than GAAP profits, need be real profits.




It sure is closed.   As investments I eliminate all companies that make losses.

A loss is a loss, I don't care what happened or what the excuse is, I'll move onto another stock that makes a profit instead. There's plenty of fish in the sea.


----------



## ducati916 (23 August 2006)

*Realist* 



> It sure is closed. As investments I eliminate all companies that make losses.
> 
> A loss is a loss, I don't care what happened or what the excuse is, I'll move onto another stock that makes a profit instead. There's plenty of fish in the sea.




It is this rather unfortunate lack of attention to detail that rather gives the value investor a poor reputation.

In essence, your investment philosophies application could find you investing in fraudulent companies, while avoiding legitimate investments due to the inability to differentiate between reality and GAAP. You are aptly named.

jog on
d998


----------



## Realist (23 August 2006)

$14.00 now!!


----------



## Realist (23 August 2006)

ducati916 said:
			
		

> *Realist*  It is this rather unfortunate lack of attention to detail that rather gives the value investor a poor reputation.




Well I may have a poor reputation, but Buffett and Graham don't.   : 



> In essence, your investment philosophies application could find you investing in fraudulent companies, while avoiding legitimate investments due to the inability to differentiate between reality and GAAP. You are aptly named.




Well if Westfield, Fosters, and Rinker have been falsely reporting I agree I'll be stung. along with thousands or millions of others.

What do you suggest I do about that?     

I diversify widely so if one of them blows up overnight, I'll lose 5 to 7% of my investements - claim that back against other profits, I'll lose say 3% - woop-de-do!!

What do you do to protect yourself against fraud?


----------



## ducati916 (23 August 2006)

*Realist*

As a self proclaimed investor, the fluctuations of the short term market price should not influence unduly your position. What should concern you is that your purchase price has afforded you enough of a margin of safety in which to realize a profit, and protect your principal.

As such, posting $14 is an irrelevancy in the context of safety of principal & profit potential.

I will post an analysis over the next day or so, and compare my calculation of intrinsic value, to yours.

jog on
d998


----------



## ducati916 (23 August 2006)

Realist said:
			
		

> Well I may have a poor reputation, but Buffett and Graham don't.   :
> Well if Westfield, Fosters, and Rinker have been falsely reporting I agree I'll be stung. along with thousands or millions of others.
> 
> What do you suggest I do about that?
> ...




But unfortunately you do not have Graham or Buffett providing an analysis for you. You are providing your own analysis, and you have closed your mind to the differences in reported results under GAAP.

Therefore, unless you are willing to fill the gaps in your knowledge, you may well get caught.

I protect myself through ever improving my analytical skills.
Diversification

Your cavalier attitude to losses, suggests that you do not really follow Grahams teachings, save from lip service, nor Buffett, as to quote Buffett;

Rule #1
Never lose money
Rule #2
Refer to Rule #1

jog on
d998


----------



## Realist (23 August 2006)

ducati916 said:
			
		

> *Realist* As such, posting $14 is an irrelevancy in the context of safety of principal & profit potential.





Haahaaa, I mostly agree, but it does indicate I did buy near the bottom which is the hardest thing to do.

Ben Graham never had internet message boards to post on...  Maybe he would have followed prices and chatted about them more if he had?

$14.00, up 9% in one week.   I'm happy!!  


  :band


----------



## Realist (23 August 2006)

ducati916 said:
			
		

> Your cavalier attitude to losses, suggests that you do not really follow Grahams teachings, save from lip service, nor Buffett, as to quote Buffett;
> 
> Rule #1
> Never lose money
> ...




what examples do you have of me being cavalier to losses exactly?

Graham did make losses you know, and he did not dwell on them, he looked forward as I do.


----------



## ducati916 (23 August 2006)

*Realist* 



> I diversify widely so if one of them blows up overnight, I'll lose 5 to 7% of my investements - claim that back against other profits, I'll lose say 3% - woop-de-do!!




This type of nonsense is a fairly typical example.



> Graham did make losses you know,




Did he really?
What were they?

jog on
d998


----------



## Realist (23 August 2006)

ducati916 said:
			
		

> *Realist*
> 
> This type of nonsense is a fairly typical example.




Haha, how can you possibly avoid losses completely?

You can't you diversify to protect yourself. And you sleep easy.

You are showing your ignorance now.




> Did he really?
> What were they?




ahhh yes, big enough for him to be nearly bankrupt in 1931.



Have you ever made a loss Ducati?


----------



## ducati916 (23 August 2006)

*Realist* 



> ahhh yes, big enough for him to be nearly bankrupt in 1931.




Incorrect.
Graham as one of two principal partners in the Graham/Newman Partnership nearly went bankrupt because their compensation was linked to generating profits. During the Depression, they did not get back above their high tide mark until 1936, however, that is different from sustaining security losses.



> Haha, how can you possibly avoid losses completely?
> You can't you diversify to protect yourself. And you sleep easy.
> You are showing your ignorance now.




As a point of fact, you can avoid losses.
Diversification & quality analysis can provide a 100% track record.
As can specific strategies.



> Have you ever made a loss Ducati?




As a technical trader, I made 1000's of losses.
As an investor, I haven't lost money [not a penny] in 2.5yrs

I will have drawdown on positions, but, I still have currently anyway, a 100% record.

jog on
d998


----------



## Realist (23 August 2006)

ducati916 said:
			
		

> Incorrect.
> Graham as one of two principal partners in the Graham/Newman Partnership nearly went bankrupt because their compensation was linked to generating profits. During the Depression, they did not get back above their high tide mark until 1936, however, that is different from sustaining security losses.




Whatever, he made losses.  And I don't blame him. 

Graham states losses are to be expected, and you need to minimise them, maybe sell the company and offset a gain, the rebuy over 31 days later, you get the tax loss and still own the company at a good price.



			
				ducati916 said:
			
		

> As a point of fact, you can avoid losses.
> Diversification & quality analysis can provide a 100% track record.
> As can specific strategies.




Bollocks. you can never be 100% certain you will avoid losses.   The sun may not rise tomorrow, nothing is certain.  I agree you can get damn close to 100% though, as Buffett has done.   Buffett is smarter than you and I though.




			
				ducati916 said:
			
		

> As a technical trader, I made 1000's of losses.




Yeah I'm no good at trading either.    

It's fun though.



			
				ducati916 said:
			
		

> As an investor, I haven't lost money [not a penny] in 2.5yrs




Wow, not lost any money in a roaring bullmarket. You must be a genius.   

I've made big losses years ago, and I'm damn proud of them, they gave me a severe wake-up call. And proved to me I am as dumb as anyone else, and I better be carefull.

I've done well 'investing' recently, but I could have done better I've made mistakes, and I'm fully aware times will change and I wont do so well.


----------



## ducati916 (23 August 2006)

*Realist* 



> Whatever, he made losses. And I don't blame him.




You see inattention to detail.
Very sloppy.



> Graham states losses are to be expected, and you need to minimise them, maybe sell the company and offset a gain, the rebuy over 31 days later, you get the tax loss and still own the company at a good price.




He never said anything of the sort.
Complete nonsense and fabrication.



> Bollocks. you can never be 100% certain you will avoid losses. The sun may not rise tomorrow, nothing is certain. I agree you can get damn close to 100% though, as Buffett has done. Buffett is smarter than you and I though.




Incorrect.
Convertible Arbitrage.
100% risk free, guaranteed profit.



> Yeah I'm no good at trading either.




Again, inattention to detail.
I did not state I was a bad trader, I said I had 1000's of losses.
But I had more winners.
In fact I have live trades posted, that show an 87% return over 9mths



> Wow, not lost any money in a roaring bullmarket. You must be a genius.




Again, no attention to detail.
I do not trade ASX
I trade US
The US has not been in a bullmarket, it has been rangebound.



> I've made big losses years ago, and I'm damn proud of them, they gave me a severe wake-up call. And proved to me I am as dumb as anyone else, and I better be carefull.




Obviously not.
Your mind is still closed.

jog on
d998


----------



## Realist (23 August 2006)

pedantic, pedantic, pedantic.    

If you seriously think losses are completely unavoidable I pity you.


----------



## ducati916 (23 August 2006)

*Realist* 

I see that you have exhausted your limited knowledge base.
This comes as no great suprise, based on previously posted material.
That you are unaware of Convertible Arbitrage simply highlights further the parsimonious research that you have undertaken.

As it happens, I have no great issue with your lack of knowledge.
What I do have issue with however is your constant reference to Benjamin Graham.

Quite honestly I should require you to avoid damaging his name and reputation further with your ill-informed, ill-conceived, and scurillous misrepresentation of his work.

As I am the chef, supper now needs to be addressed.
Therefore, hopefully, you shall desist from further inaccurate representation of Graham & Buffett.

I shall provide an analysis of RIN.
I would be interested in reading your analysis if you feel that you can provide one.

jog on
d998


----------



## Realist (23 August 2006)

ducati916 said:
			
		

> *Realist*
> 
> I see that you have exhausted your limited knowledge base.
> This comes as no great suprise, based on previously posted material.
> ...




Oh dear, oh dear!!      

Have you even read Security Analysis and the Intelligent Investor?   

Graham speculated on hundreds of minor securities that had a NTA greater than its Market Cap.

He made losses on some of them!!!       
Being pedantic does not make you sound more intelligent, quite the contrary actually.


----------



## Joe Blow (23 August 2006)

Gentlemen lets stick to discussing RIN in this thread. If you would like to discuss Buffett, Graham, value investing and other related topics in more depth, please start a new thread in the appropriate forum.

Thank you.


----------



## ducati916 (23 August 2006)

*Realist* 



> Oh dear, oh dear!!
> Have you even read Security Analysis and the Intelligent Investor?
> Graham speculated on hundreds of minor securities that had a NTA greater than its Market Cap.
> He made losses on some of them!!!
> Being pedantic does not make you sound more intelligent, quite the contrary actually.




Really?
Give me the names of the securities.
Quote to me the page#
The Edition
The Year of any [Security Analysis/Intelligent Investor]

Where;
Losses are identified,
Speculation is admitted to.

Fact;
There are none.
That includes all the appendixes of all editions, all years.

But of course I am more than willing to investigate any factual references.
Just save your opinion, as it is an empty vessel.

jog on
d998


----------



## noirua (26 August 2006)

Rinker shares have slumped badly, the 50 cents extra dividend and 50 cent cash return played a very small part in that.

The rumours of a bid from Lafarge ( http://www.aggregateresearch.com/finance/article.asp?id=9234 ) are likely to stay around for sometime and help the stock, together with the upbeat first quarterly report ( http://www.stockhouse.com/news/news.asp?newsid=3806871&tick=RIN )


----------



## GreatPig (26 August 2006)

Technically RIN may be forming a cup and handle.

If the price pushes back up through $14, I'll be looking to get back in.

Cheers,
GP


----------



## noirua (29 August 2006)

GreatPig said:
			
		

> Technically RIN may be forming a cup and handle.
> 
> If the price pushes back up through $14, I'll be looking to get back in.
> 
> ...




Very interesting, more interesting will be the shape of the handle. Will watch with interest. Seems to have a nice bottom, no sharp v's, - well, only a little one - and is taking quite sometime to form.


----------



## noirua (30 August 2006)

More seriously, Rinker Group have moved up from a USA low of USADR$48.9 ( on 2nd Aug 2006 ) to USADR$52.34 - target on the chart is at US$60. In Aus., the next fence is at A$14, lets take them one at a time.

The buy-back will help Rinker and - buy back in Aus that is - gives a firmer look to the stock that should be worth in the range A$16 - A$18, a range that should hold in due course. 

Those interested in making a below market price bid should withdraw with grace. Unacceptable faces of capitalism as they are.


----------



## noirua (31 August 2006)

Rinker Event: Port Lauderdale or West Palm Beach, it's all go on the 19th September 2006 http://www.cfasouthflorida.org/events.php


----------



## noirua (5 September 2006)

Rinker are now back over $14 at $14.17 this morning. The US economy is still looking good, on the spending front, and the property downturn may be short lived.


----------



## michael_selway (5 September 2006)

noirua said:
			
		

> Rinker are now back over $14 at $14.17 this morning. The US economy is still looking good, on the spending front, and the property downturn may be short lived.




Well DOW is doing ok atm also, and forward terminal PE of 10 is about $14

Earnings and Dividends Forecast (cents per share) 
2006 2007 2008 2009 
EPS 106.6 122.0 129.8 138.4 
DPS 78.0 42.8 45.4 48.2 

thx

MS


----------



## noirua (8 September 2006)

Rinker Group have stepped up the buy-back of RIN stock as the price slides quickly to $13.20.


----------



## swingstar (8 September 2006)

noirua said:
			
		

> Rinker Group have stepped up the buy-back of RIN stock as the price slides quickly to $13.20.




Shouldn't the price go up?


----------



## michael_selway (9 September 2006)

swingstar said:
			
		

> Shouldn't the price go up?




theres a limit to how much and at what price they can buy back per day?

thx

MS


----------



## 3 veiws of a secret (9 September 2006)

Re :yr last post that's correct Michael Selway -damn right!,this share is near the centrifuge,after reaching $14.29 the other day. Volatile indeed,shades of Silex in it's early days.


----------



## noirua (11 September 2006)

Down to $12.99 this morning, after the Friday buy-back of 1,089,592 shares at prices between $13.20 and $13.50. 
It appears that there must be some significant unloading of stock going on and RIN must be aware of a big seller, as they mop up stock for cancellation.


----------



## Realist (11 September 2006)

There was quite bad news on the housing front in the US late last week, DVB or something like that reporting problems. Saw it on CNBC.

RIN is slightly less than I bought it for now.    

Still it is a longterm hold, pays good dividends and a buy back at low prices suits shareholders I suppose. So no problem.

The whole ASX is taking a beating today, dunno why.


----------



## noirua (11 September 2006)

Realist said:
			
		

> There was quite bad news on the housing front in the US late last week, DVB or something like that reporting problems. Saw it on CNBC.
> 
> RIN is slightly less than I bought it for now.
> 
> ...




I notice oil prices heading for US$60, gold about to go under US$600,... So, maybe, we're about to see a reversal to the US and worldwide inflationary pressure.
RIN are at a days low of $12.83, tempted to buy a few more.


----------



## michael_selway (11 September 2006)

Realist said:
			
		

> There was quite bad news on the housing front in the US late last week, DVB or something like that reporting problems. Saw it on CNBC.
> 
> RIN is slightly less than I bought it for now.
> 
> ...




RIN's dividend is relatively low imo, esp if its not "growing" much

Earnings and Dividends Forecast (cents per share) 
2006 2007 2008 2009 
EPS 106.6 122.0 129.1 137.6 
DPS 78.0 42.8 44.8 48.0 

thx

MS


----------



## swingstar (12 September 2006)

If Nick's EW analysis proves true, then looks like RIN has started wave C down.


----------



## noirua (13 September 2006)

$12.77, up 46 cents. Buy-back appears to have stopped.


----------



## jwatkins (13 September 2006)

Interested to see so many here contemplating buying RIN. I paper traded a short at $13.30 a month ago... scary share to hold during an American recession, not to mention Ducati's analysis.


----------



## YELNATS (13 September 2006)

jwatkins said:
			
		

> Interested to see so many here contemplating buying RIN. I paper traded a short at $13.30 a month ago... scary share to hold during an American recession, not to mention Ducati's analysis.




Any price under $13 for RIN is a good price. Regards YN.


----------



## Fab (14 September 2006)

Housing market not looking good in the US so I will be keep away from RIN for a while. i recently sold at $13.70


----------



## michael_selway (14 September 2006)

Fab said:
			
		

> Housing market not looking good in the US so I will be keep away from RIN for a while. i recently sold at $13.70




hehe nice, at a gain or as a loss may I ask?   

thx

MS


----------



## Jay-684 (14 September 2006)

thought of buying RIN or ZFX on wed morning, went with ZFX due to Zinc recovering and the soft outlook on US housing....

of course RIN has risen over 7% since then!

they have done me well anyway, luckily sold out at $22 (bought for $13) so not too bad


----------



## noirua (19 September 2006)

Rinker are having trouble holding above $13, this despite buying back 630,000 shares on Monday. 

RIN may buy-back 45 million shares over a 12 month period, which represents 5% of shares in issue before the cancellation last week.


----------



## Freeballinginawetsuit (20 September 2006)

Jay-684 said:
			
		

> thought of buying RIN or ZFX on wed morning, went with ZFX due to Zinc recovering and the soft outlook on US housing....
> 
> of course RIN has risen over 7% since then!
> 
> they have done me well anyway, luckily sold out at $22 (bought for $13) so not too bad





Smart move JAY-684, ZFX over RIN anyday, your 10% up already since last week. If you want a quick buck and to avoid October (possibly black) get out of ZFX before they go ex divy.


----------



## michael_selway (20 September 2006)

Freeballinginawetsuit said:
			
		

> Smart move JAY-684, ZFX over RIN anyday, your 10% up already since last week. If you want a quick buck and to avoid October (possibly black) get out of ZFX before they go ex divy.




Things is ZFX, after the coming 70c fully franked dividend, there will be an even bigger divi coming in 6 & 12 months after that! Pretty certain I would say as well

*ZFX - Earnings and Dividends Forecast (cents per share) 
2006 2007 2008 2009 
EPS 219.9 283.0 194.8 117.4 
DPS 80.0 140.0 88.3 53.2 * 

One thing I dont understand about RIN, is that they have such low dividend, yet they dont make any aquisitions etc? maybe hidden furture costs?

*RIN - Earnings and Dividends Forecast (cents per share) 
2006 2007 2008 2009 
EPS 106.6 121.2 129.1 138.4 
DPS 78.0 42.8 45.0 48.5 * 


thx

MS


----------



## noirua (20 September 2006)

Rinker are looking decidedly weak this morning and need that regular buy-back of shares to prevent a nose dive. This buy-back may end before Xmas at this present rate and RIN need to do something fast or confidence will collapse with the shares.


----------



## Realist (20 September 2006)

Haha, don't worry about the share price, worry about the company.

I agree RIN share price is weak, because of housing data out of the US.   

Buybacks at a low share price are great for us though, it improves the EPS - which is hugely important.


----------



## Freeballinginawetsuit (20 September 2006)

Realist said:
			
		

> Haha, don't worry about the share price, worry about the company.
> 
> I agree RIN share price is weak, because of housing data out of the US.
> 
> Buybacks at a low share price are great for us though, it improves the EPS - which is hugely important.




How's RIN going Realist, seems like it might be heading to a new support level in the low $12 range with not much on the upside. 

DOW is doing a lot better mate with some upside to come!.


----------



## Freeballinginawetsuit (20 September 2006)

michael_selway said:
			
		

> Things is ZFX, after the coming 70c fully franked dividend, there will be an even bigger divi coming in 6 & 12 months after that! Pretty certain I would say as well
> 
> *ZFX - Earnings and Dividends Forecast (cents per share)
> 2006 2007 2008 2009
> ...





Agree MS, I'M not getting out of my long holding in ZFX in a hurry. 
Just stating that their SP will soften up a bit when they go ex divy. This is whats giving their current SP support at the moment in the current market.


----------



## Sultan of Swing (20 September 2006)

michael_selway said:
			
		

> One thing I dont understand about RIN, is that they have such low dividend, yet they dont make any aquisitions etc? maybe hidden furture costs?




Is not a buy back the same as an aquisition? The only differnce is they're buying RIN as they're not seeing any better valued opportunities out there at this time.

I'm here to learn so tell me if I've missed something please.

Cheers
SOS


----------



## Halba (20 September 2006)

if rin get anywhere near $1.15 eps the shares will rally, provided high single digit earnings growth for 2007/8



thats quite significant earnings, esp for a stock dropping every day  

bear in mind, the market is pricing RIN for negative earnings growth, i.e. earnings declines from say $1.15 to $1.05 or something like that


----------



## Realist (20 September 2006)

Freeballinginawetsuit said:
			
		

> How's RIN going Realist, seems like it might be heading to a new support level in the low $12 range with not much on the upside.
> 
> DOW is doing a lot better mate with some upside to come!.




Haha, pure speculation based on your lack of fundamental knowledge.   

"Support at 12 with not much upside" -  based on no facts whatsoever, pure personal opinion.


RIN is a long term hold, judging it on a week's trading or a months trading is a waste of time, I'll hold for a long time and collect the dividends, the buyback makes the EPS better, it suits me for the buyback to be when the SP is low. I'm happy where I bought it.


DOW made a loss last year - I wouldn't touch it!

RIN made a $1B profit.


----------



## Fab (20 September 2006)

RIN is a good company but SPP correction was overdue. Why hold at this level when you could have sold at around $20 and probably will be able to buy back at $12


----------



## Freeballinginawetsuit (20 September 2006)

Realist said:
			
		

> Haha, pure speculation based on your lack of fundamental knowledge.
> 
> "Support at 12 with not much upside" -  based on no facts whatsoever, pure personal opinion.
> 
> ...




You must be struggling with your hold strategy in the current market Realist.

No ones saying don't go with the fundamentals just have an exit/entry strategy. You seem to be letting lots of oppurtunities pass by simply not trading the MARKET!.


----------



## Realist (20 September 2006)

Freeballinginawetsuit said:
			
		

> You must be struggling with your hold strategy in the current market Realist.
> 
> No ones saying don't go with the fundamentals just have an exit/entry strategy. You seem to be letting lots of oppurtunities pass by simply not trading the MARKET!.




Rubbish...

I've collected a hell of alot of dividends this month... 

MRE is up 50% from where I bought it 4 months ago.

Amcor is soaring for some reason today as well...    

I've lost on BHP and RIO and others these past few months though.  But overall I am well ahead.


----------



## Freeballinginawetsuit (20 September 2006)

Realist said:
			
		

> Rubbish...
> 
> I've collected a hell of alot of dividends this month...
> 
> ...





Personally I got out of MRE a few weeks back and bought back in on Monday.

You still held hey?, oh well you are an Investor.


----------



## noirua (21 September 2006)

Rinker have purchased 7,950,000 shares for cancellation in the first month of the 12 month buy-back period and have only 37,050,000 shares left to buy.   The Live Audio Presentation is next Tuesday, 26th September.


----------



## Realist (21 September 2006)

Freeballinginawetsuit said:
			
		

> Personally I got out of MRE a few weeks back and bought back in on Monday.
> 
> You still held hey?, oh well you are an Investor.





So you missed the dividends, owe tax, and paid alot of brokerage!!       

I do wonder about you..   

What else have you bought or sold recently?


----------



## Freeballinginawetsuit (21 September 2006)

Realist said:
			
		

> So you missed the dividends, owe tax, and paid alot of brokerage!!
> 
> I do wonder about you..
> 
> What else have you bought or sold recently?





Gee Realist, I make more in a week than you make in a year, your whole portfolio is probably pocket change for me.

The dividends in MRE were bugger all! and I bought back in 40 cents lower than what I sold at.

 My shares are traded in a company trust fund and the brokerage on my transactions is peanuts.

Indeed it is you that is the worry Realist, you are probably the same age as me, but you are a know it all!. I'm a self made millionaire and your a renter, who works for someone else and probably only has 300k in shares.

Wake up to reality, you have a long way to go, you do show a bit of spirit though!

I'm ahead on all trades in the last two weeks. I am behind on my PDN buy of yesterday though.


----------



## Fab (21 September 2006)

Freeballinginawetsuit ,

If I can give my fifty cents on your comments, I would say they don' t really help and having a trust does not mean you have special skills in trading shares, I don't know if your comments or true or not either. Anyway, what is of interest to us is valuable comments on specific shares which will help all of us make money whereas you are a millionaire or not does not really matter much.


----------



## Freeballinginawetsuit (21 September 2006)

Fab said:
			
		

> Freeballinginawetsuit ,
> 
> If I can give my fifty cents on your comments, I would say they don' t really help and having a trust does not mean you have special skills in trading shares, I don't know if your comments or true or not either. Anyway, what is of interest to us is valuable comments on specific shares which will help all of us make money whereas you are a millionaire or not does not really matter much.






True, Realist is just getting my goat a bit. Stuck in his ways and never open to opinion!. Typical young smart ****.


----------



## Realist (21 September 2006)

Freeballinginawetsuit said:
			
		

> The dividends in MRE were bugger all! and I bought back in 40 cents lower than what I sold at.




The lowest MRE has been this month is $3.38. And I doubt you hit that exact mark!

The Dividends were 12.5 cents

And the current price is $3.52

Do your maths. Add in brokerage and tax.

Whatever way you look at it you were wrong, you've lost quite a bit of money.



> I'm a self made millionaire and your a renter, who works for someone else and probably only has 300k in shares.




Depends on how you look at things, others may see you as a pool cleaner from a hick town.


----------



## Realist (21 September 2006)

Freeballinginawetsuit said:
			
		

> The dividends in MRE were bugger all! and I bought back in 40 cents lower than what I sold at.




So you sold MRE at exactly $3.80 the all time high it had been in the past 10 years, and it was this price for a matter of minutes.

Then you bought back at $3.40 where it hit the monthly low once.

Your timing is amazing. You hit every high and low exactly and tell us about them a few days later.    

I see you bought Dow in the 2 minutes it hit $5.18 in the past 12 months as well.

And you are a self made multi-millionaire...

what other stories do you have?

I'll give you one,l I managed to buy AUM for 20 cents and sold it for $10.


----------



## barney (21 September 2006)

C'mon now guys   I'm not trying to take sides here but..........My 2 bobs worth (probably only worth 2 cents but thats the "lot" of a newbie  )..............Anyone who puts as much " money where their mouth is" as F/B deserves respect...........As far as missing 4-5% dividends on a stock, I dont see a problem if he "turns" the stock over a few times a year and makes 20-30% (maybe more)..........gotta be happy with that.....hope I can get to the stage where I pay "too much" brokerage!  .........I'd be as happy as a pig in .........(you know where!)


----------



## Realist (21 September 2006)

barney said:
			
		

> C'mon now guys   I'm not trying to take sides here but..........My 2 bobs worth (probably only worth 2 cents but thats the "lot" of a newbie  )..............Anyone who puts as much " money where their mouth is" as F/B deserves respect...........As far as missing 4-5% dividends on a stock, I dont see a problem if he "turns" the stock over a few times a year and makes 20-30% (maybe more)..........gotta be happy with that.....hope I can get to the stage where I pay "too much" brokerage!  .........I'd be as happy as a pig in .........(you know where!)





Fair enough.

I apologise..   

If we all traded the same or thought the same the sharemarket would not work, and this bored would be rather boring...


----------



## Freeballinginawetsuit (21 September 2006)

Realist said:
			
		

> So you sold MRE at exactly $3.80 the all time high it had been in the past 10 years, and it was this price for a matter of minutes.
> 
> Then you bought back at $3.40 where it hit the monthly low once.
> 
> ...





Actually I sold in parcels over 3.70 and bought in at $3.28 to $3.32, a bit to slow to get it when it hit $3.22 you wally. MRE is weak on the boards so you can't do to much at once!.

 MRE touched $3.22, you are wrong again.

I did buy AUM at $2.30 and sell it 'all over the 6 dollar range', two days later, a stressful few minutes. lol

Realist just face it mate, your one of those minnows in the ocean! .


----------



## pacer (21 September 2006)

What the hell has this all got to do with RIN......post on RIN......or keep most posts with a degree of separation...you all should know better! stop the spam!


Oh, bought 3000 MBL the other day....happy!...I am!.....


----------



## noirua (22 September 2006)

A little bit of help from Dr Marc Faber on the US property market: http://www.ameinfo.com/96271.html

By golly we need it, even if it's only mildly bullish, the best we've had of late and from the great forecaster.


----------



## barney (23 September 2006)

pacer said:
			
		

> What the hell has this all got to do with RIN......post on RIN......or keep most posts with a degree of separation...you all should know better! stop the spam!
> 
> 
> Oh, bought 3000 MBL the other day....happy!...I am!.....




Funny P-man,

Hey, I reckon if you can afford to buy 3000 MBL, you should be able to loan me a measly $50,000 ...........(Interst free of course  )...........RIN looks to be still drifting south atm...........hows that P; back on topic!


----------



## Realist (23 September 2006)

RIN was down 1.6% on the NYSE overnight.

So will be in for a bad Monday as well.

Still it has pretty much hit its bottom, and yes you can quote me on that.  Its just a waiting game now....


----------



## noirua (23 September 2006)

I'm starting to feel happier about Rinker despite the big fall. Note post 3 on the "Business Radio and Video" thread.


----------



## 3 veiws of a secret (23 September 2006)

noirua said:
			
		

> I'm starting to feel happier about Rinker despite the big fall. Note post 3 on the "Business Radio and Video" thread.




'Noirua ' your on your own with RIN you seem convinced this share has more value then the shekel.....tell me I'm not a rogue trader when it comes to RIN ,but I need positive posts  & announcements ,if I'm to buy more into RIN .


----------



## noirua (25 September 2006)

3 veiws of a secret said:
			
		

> 'Noirua ' your on your own with RIN you seem convinced this share has more value then the shekel.....tell me I'm not a rogue trader when it comes to RIN ,but I need positive posts  & announcements ,if I'm to buy more into RIN .




Yes 3v.o.a.s, it's a bit like grabbing hold of a passing log in the river, not clutching at straws as yet, as we wait for the companies presentation, due this week.

RIN seem in an increasing hurry to buy-back the 45 million shares and should complete by December 06, rather than July 07.  Bought back, 2,310,000 shares last week - 36,550,000 to go.

The obvious worry is what forecast Rinker will give if the housing market falls in accordance with the worse forecasts. I don't think the fall will be all that much and I go along with Guru, Dr Marc Faber, see the link No 250 above.


----------



## noirua (27 September 2006)

Onwards and upwards. Well that might happen again after a 40 cent rise to $13.15 this morning. The presentations to be made this week by Rinker should help regain some confidence in the short term.


----------



## Halba (27 September 2006)

Yes good management

They have established the theme that "we're not just housing" but are expanding into non housing sectors which are very very strong right now in the US (i.e. boom conditions)

I'm wayy down on paper on this one. I hope to recover my money if the boom conditions in infrastructure in the US continue...RIN will go back to $17 if thats the case as its a strong cash-flow company


----------



## Realist (28 September 2006)

$13.68 now.

Was $12.60 this week.  Up 8.5%


----------



## GreatPig (28 September 2006)

Realist said:
			
		

> Up 8.5%



Compared to the 13%-odd fall earlier this month 

If you bought then around $14, you'll soon have your money back at this rate...

GP


----------



## Julia (28 September 2006)

RIN is a good example of how the SP is not dependent on the quality of the company and is why I don't get too carried away with enthusiasm when someone talks about buying a company on which they have done all the research and concluded it is "undervalued" and therefore must make them money.

All it takes is some negative housing data to come out of the US and the SP plummets, then some more positive data is released, and woop de doo, the SP takes off again.

The company hasn't done anything differently in the meantime, except possibly to point out that their business is not entirely dependent on US housing.

Julia


----------



## Realist (28 September 2006)

Julia said:
			
		

> RIN is a good example of how the SP is not dependent on the quality of the company and is why I don't get too carried away with enthusiasm when someone talks about buying a company on which they have done all the research and concluded it is "undervalued" and therefore must make them money.
> 
> All it takes is some negative housing data to come out of the US and the SP plummets, then some more positive data is released, and woop de doo, the SP takes off again.
> 
> ...




Hi Julia, I think you are confusing intrinsic value with market sentiment..

They are two completely different entities.

The intrinsic value of RIN is a debatable topic, but many agree the fair value of its shares is above $13. Hence why I bought and why many many others bought around or just under $13.

You are confusing the intrinsic value or fundamental value with market sentiment.  Of course RIN will go up and down slightly on daily news. Every share does. And no-one can predict it or plan for it.

The fact is unless some terrible fundamental problem occurs RIN wont drop much further below $13 because it is slightly undervalued at the moment. 

And it will over the longterm all going as expected go up. 

But day to day it'll fluctuate according to market sentiment which no-one can predict.

Over the shortterm market sentiment wins, over the longterm value always wins.


----------



## michael_selway (28 September 2006)

Realist said:
			
		

> Hi Julia, I think you are confusing intrinsic value with market sentiment..
> 
> They are two completely different entities.
> 
> ...




Yeah Foward Terminal PE of 10 = $13.40 about, fair value

Earnings and Dividends Forecast (cents per share) 
2006 2007 2008 2009 
EPS 106.6 120.1 125.2 134.7 
DPS 78.0 41.8 43.0 45.9 

EPS(c) PE Growth 
Year Ending 30-03-07 120.1 10.9 12.6% 
Year Ending 30-03-08 125.2 10.5 4.2% 

thx

MS


----------



## Julia (28 September 2006)

Realist said:
			
		

> Hi Julia, I think you are confusing intrinsic value with market sentiment..
> 
> They are two completely different entities.
> 
> ...




No Realist, I'm not confusing intrinsic value with market sentiment at all.
I'm simply pointing out that whatever the intrinsic value might be, the SP is much more affected by market sentiment.  I can't believe you would argue with that?

And I don't agree that over the longterm value always wins.  Perhaps over more than 10 years.  

The other part to the point I was trying to make is the very value of your own approach of buy and hold, as compared to traders jumping out as the stock falls off its highs, and then back in again a few weeks later as we are seeing at present.  You have oh so often espoused the virtues of hanging in there and riding out the ups and downs, compared with the brokerage and tax issues involved in a short term approach.

OK, is that clearer?

Julia


----------



## Realist (29 September 2006)

Yeah thanks, I agree.

Although market sentiment only causes minor swings in major stocks. If for instance Fosters made a loss next year it's price would plummet based on fundamentals. Market sentiment will never cause FGL to plummet if the fundamentals are sound.


----------



## Realist (29 September 2006)

Realist said:
			
		

> $13.68 now.
> 
> Was $12.60 this week.  Up 8.5%




And it was up 5% overnight in the US, should storm up today!


----------



## Julia (29 September 2006)

Extract from FNArena today:

JP Morgan suggests that eventually the value of Rinker will be properly recognised by the market "or even perhaps one of RIN's US/European peers". Credit Suisse also stated this morning "We believe the once predator could become prey to either long cement companies (Lafarge, Cemex, Holcim) or private equity."


Rinker is a strong company that is potentially undervalued by the market at present. And we know what now happens to Australian companies in such a situation. Is Rinker the next target?


Not only is the takeover speculation interesting, but these comments probably put better what I was trying to say earlier.

Julia


----------



## Realist (29 September 2006)

Did you ever buy RIN Julia?


----------



## Julia (30 September 2006)

Realist said:
			
		

> Did you ever buy RIN Julia?



Realist, Yes I bought in January so was a happy investor for a while!

Julia


----------



## noirua (4 October 2006)

Rinker are hovering around the $14 level, probably helped by recent presentations in the States.

RIN Directors may increasingly feel the need for the company to reduce its Aussie holdings and move head office to the USA. That would probably, in their eyes, see the company have the opportunity to move out of ADR's into the main NYSE sector.


----------



## swingstar (4 October 2006)

Adjusted count for RIN. It's a long A, but it's valid, if Nick's 5 is indeed a 5.

(red lines just indicate wave iv's span, where a wave C usually finishes, so may see a turning point soon)

Edit: My wave v doesn't subdivide into five waves, so we may still be in that.


----------



## Realist (4 October 2006)

Are you saying it is going back down to 12 Swingstar?    

If you are then I disagree....   :


----------



## swingstar (4 October 2006)

Probably below $12 if my count is correct. 

I wouldn't short it until there was a decent breach through recent lows. 

Depends how the waves unfold. Of course there are probably alternative counts, but I'm not that focused on RIN ATM.


----------



## Realist (4 October 2006)

You'll be proven wrong...


----------



## swingstar (4 October 2006)

That EW count will be proven wrong, and I'll just have to adjust as new waves unfold.


----------



## michael_selway (4 October 2006)

Realist said:
			
		

> You'll be proven wrong...




Earnings and Dividends Forecast (cents per share) 
2006 2007 2008 2009 
EPS 106.6 118.6 123.3 128.1 
DPS 78.0 41.9 43.0 46.0 

EPS(c) PE Growth 
Year Ending 30-03-07 118.6 11.9 11.2% 
Year Ending 30-03-08 123.3 11.4 4.0% 

how much do u think they are worth atm realist?

thx

MS


----------



## Realist (4 October 2006)

$15.


----------



## noirua (5 October 2006)

The RIN buy-back continues confidently on - Rinker shares appear to be the best investment around for the Board of RIN - with 500,000 shares purchased yesterday between $13.94 - $14.01.

So it's Rinker themselves that help the struggle to stay above $14.

Unleaded petrol in the states is now down by 25% from the US$3.04 per US gallon. The Dow 30 index shows a general confidence that interest rates and inflation are looking towards a downward trend that should benefit good old Rinker Group.


----------



## 3 veiws of a secret (5 October 2006)

Well Noirua,made a fist full of dollars today ,hopefully back in at the mid 13 bucks zone.See you soon with my  Rin tin tin shares...................


----------



## noirua (6 October 2006)

Rinker trade on the NYSE at ADR$52.64 against a 52 week low of ADR$46.40.  The sentiment stockscore is at 49, middle of the neutral range.


----------



## noirua (7 October 2006)

Let's not forget, first off, the disaster that Rinker Group shares have proven to be. 

There is something in an article I read about a companies investment in Taiwan. Having lost 65% of their money they decided to stick it out on a sensible forward basis. Since the disastrous fall, they have recovered half of their losses that equate to a gain of 20% compound per annum.

Hopefully this is what we are seeing here in Rinker Group's shares having closed at $14.34 on Friday - low was $12.11.


----------



## noirua (11 October 2006)

RIN are up to US$54.22 +72 cents and the US Stockscore, well up at 60.

The US chart is still asking for a rise to US$60 before we can be sure that this recovery is sound.


----------



## Realist (11 October 2006)

$14.72 now, not bad!    

What will the dividends in November be?


----------



## noirua (11 October 2006)

Realist said:
			
		

> $14.72 now, not bad!
> 
> What will the dividends in November be?




Report on Bloomberg says that Hardie and Rinker are chasing their US peers that have risen sharply of late.  Market is expected to recover further, in Rinker's sector, due to the slump in the oil price that will help with costs.

" Theage.com " has reported that a sharp rise in Hardie and Rinker may continue due to the Hurricane Katrina reconstruction. 

In my view, both Hardie and Rinker are likely to push on strongly from here.


----------



## 3 veiws of a secret (11 October 2006)

noirua said:
			
		

> Report on Bloomberg says that Hardie and Rinker are chasing their US peers that have risen sharply of late.  Market is expected to recover further, in Rinker's sector, due to the slump in the oil price that will help with costs.
> 
> " Theage.com " has reported that a sharp rise in Hardie and Rinker may continue due to the Hurricane Katrina reconstruction.
> 
> In my view, both Hardie and Rinker are likely to push on strongly from here.




Noirua !!! you might be grinning tonight!, perhaps I sold out too quickly ......happy sailing. :bowser:


----------



## tour (11 October 2006)

did any1 rec a letter from david tweed? wat an a$$ offering $8.5 for a rinker share. i hope asic should do something abt this as some1 probably the elderly gonna get seriouly riped off from this.


----------



## 3 veiws of a secret (11 October 2006)

tour said:
			
		

> did any1 rec a letter from david tweed? wat an a$$ offering $8.5 for a rinker share. i hope asic should do something abt this as some1 probably the elderly gonna get seriouly riped off from this.




Haaa silly old bastard never thought to save on the postage -I sold! Now I wonder if I authorised him to purchase empty treasure trove would it cost him money????? errrrrrrrr silly bugger very amatuerish.Who cares ?


----------



## noirua (11 October 2006)

David Tweed is an " unnaceptable face of capitalism ".


----------



## 3 veiws of a secret (12 October 2006)

noirua said:
			
		

> David Tweed is an " unnaceptable face of capitalism ".




Whatever -its obvious he preys on the uninformed....great way of making a return for pitance...David Tweed would be better extending his business into the Indian ,Seychelles & Iraqi stock markets also.............I mean how do you get an interveiw with this guy for a job do you need a CV? 
Flippin'(schpelling) idiot!  :fu:


----------



## noirua (12 October 2006)

3 veiws of a secret said:
			
		

> Whatever -its obvious he preys on the uninformed....great way of making a return for pitance...David Tweed would be better extending his business into the Indian ,Seychelles & Iraqi stock markets also.............I mean how do you get an interveiw with this guy for a job do you need a CV?
> Flippin'(schpelling) idiot!  :fu:




The type of person who is likely to be caught out is; a person who inherits shares and has little interest; an elderly person who thinks they are capable of making a decision but have basically lost the capability; and a person who believes that NO " human being " in the financial sector could be this devious and basically so nasty and horrible.

The ASX allows this to continue, as does the Federal Government of Australia. It is their job to police these matters, perhaps they just don't care.


----------



## shinobi346 (12 October 2006)

:fu: @ David Tweed. He can take that letter and shove it where the sun don't shine.


----------



## 3 veiws of a secret (12 October 2006)

shinobi346 said:
			
		

> :fu: @ David Tweed. He can take that letter and shove it where the sun don't shine.




"Shinobi346"  I'll offer you $ 7.50 for your RIN shares does that mean I'm cunning? As to see how dark it is where the sun dont shine Grrrrrrrrr.....
Actually did you see the tel# on the envelope~interesting have a look. Also I was going to return the the form agreeing to it, unfortunately you have to buy a stamp-DAMN! Definitely the Arthur Daley from Mile End.


----------



## Sultan of Swing (12 October 2006)

3 veiws of a secret said:
			
		

> Also I was going to return the form agreeing to it, unfortunately you have to buy a stamp-DAMN!




My understanding of the way Australia Post operate is, if you send a letter without a stamp and there's no sender's name and address on it, they bill the receiver for the stamp and fine them a dollar. At least, that's what happened to when someone sent me an unstamped letter. I had to go into the post office and pay.

So, when I received letters from David Tweed offering to buy my RIN shares a few weeks back and last year, AMP, I wrote David some lovely little notes, unsigned, of course, and sent them to him. In them I politely explained to him his pedigree and courteously told him how I felt about his offer.   They don't take long to write as it doesn't take a lot of effort to think of the words that I feel describe him and his operation.  : 

Hopefully plenty of others will do the same and he'll get a postage bill for his trouble.


----------



## pacer (12 October 2006)

I asked david if I could go short on that offer.....I would have made a killing...... speaking of that....why don't you come round for a beer some time Dave.....Tosser!


----------



## YELNATS (12 October 2006)

Sultan of Swing said:
			
		

> My understanding of the way Australia Post operate is, if you send a letter without a stamp and there's no sender's name and address on it, they bill the receiver for the stamp and fine them a dollar. At least, that's what happened to when someone sent me an unstamped letter. I had to go into the post office and pay..




Actually the fine is $1.05, and has been for a long time. It is only imposed based on a limited statistical sampling of mail, though it should be increased for the David Twits of this world. Regards YN.


----------



## Julia (12 October 2006)

I received one of these a couple of days ago with a reply paid envelope.
To be fair the first page was the offer for the shares, then there was another page which quoted in large type the current value of the shares and directly alongside a quote for their offer.  It was absolutely clear and so he is in no way misrepresenting what he is offering.  His offer was approximately 30% below the current market price.

I just wrote on the second page "don't be ridiculous" and placed it in the reply paid envelope.  Makes me happy for him to pay the postage.

But I don't think we can accuse him of doing anything dishonest if my experience is what he typically does.  i.e. your house may be reasonably be valued on the open market at $500,000.  I'm not doing anything wrong by coming along and offering you $300,000 for it.  

Julia


----------



## Sultan of Swing (13 October 2006)

Julia said:
			
		

> But I don't think we can accuse him of doing anything dishonest if my experience is what he typically does.




The way he now quotes the value and his offer on the front page is no the way he used to do it. He only does it this way because ASIC have clamped down on him and threated him with jail time. 

Before that he just made the offer with no reference to their true value. This is when he made his millions by preying on the uninformed, uneducated and unsuspecting.

In the BRW 2005 Young Rich List edition, there was an article on him. It had 7 ways he plays the system.

One of them is this. 



> He uses the court system. In the first half of 2003, Tweed issued 500 summons to small investors who were refusing to relinquish their shares after they realised they had been duped. He generally succeeds.


----------



## noirua (13 October 2006)

This is David Tweed or David Tschemits " Laid Bare ". Would Austria take him back?

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/David_Tweed


----------



## JAK (13 October 2006)

Hi all,

I was hoping somebody could advise me, where I can get analyst share price targets....not that I trust them after they screwed me with RIN......but still better then nothing.....

Anyways,  everywhere I look it entices you and then you have to join and pay ..... 

Much appreciated,  JAK


----------



## noirua (13 October 2006)

Donald Trump Junior spoke on Fox TV and did not see the property market in slump. He appeared quite upbeat and confident when he spoke about Hawaii, NY and Florida.


----------



## Realist (13 October 2006)

JAK said:
			
		

> Hi all,
> 
> I was hoping somebody could advise me, where I can get analyst share price targets....not that I trust them after they screwed me with RIN......but still better then nothing.....
> 
> ...




The Fin Review gives about 5 analyst reports a day.  They mentioned RIN recently and gave an estmate of about $16.


----------



## bowser (13 October 2006)

noirua said:
			
		

> Donald Trump Junior spoke on Fox TV and did not see the property market in slump. He appeared quite upbeat and confident when he spoke about Hawaii, NY and Florida.




Dont belive everything you hear. It's in Trump's best interests to talk the market up. They have half-completed projects in all the cities mentioned. 'The Don' went bust in the 90's during the slow down. Who's to say it can't happen again?


----------



## Realist (13 October 2006)

I rate Donald Trump's opinions particularly lowly, and I question whether he has much money at all. I suspect he could possibly even be in debt, and a property crash and high interest rate hike could be the end of him.

He is all show!  

He doesn;t sell water, and do tv shows for nothing, hink he needs the money.


----------



## swingstar (13 October 2006)

Realist, I agree. I saw him plugging some network marketing campaign a while back (ACN). 

I'm not sure if it was in the 90s, but at one stage in his life he was a few billion in debt.


----------



## bowser (13 October 2006)

Couldn't agree more  Realist. Hell, he can't even afford to visit Ashley and Martin. 

Yah Yah


----------



## noirua (14 October 2006)

I absolutely refuse to be trumped in this matter:  http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Donald_trump


----------



## swingstar (14 October 2006)

> By 1994, Trump had eliminated a large portion of his $900 million personal debt and reduced significantly his nearly $3.5 billion in business debt... In 1999, Donald's father Fred Trump, a multi-billion dollar real estate mogul, died. Fred Trump, the same man who cosigned Donald's first business loans, also happened to be the man who enabled Donald to escape from the massive financial morass he had created over the decades. Creditors who got stuck with the past losses were not as fortunate. Whereas Donald walked away from his empire unscathed, others were forced to take catastrophic writeoffs and losses even up to 2004, when Trump refused to continue to back his casino. Although Trump boasted he would build a bigger empire than his father, in the end, his father built an empire so large it could even accommodate Donald's most lavish personal losses.




Maybe a new chapter for his How To Get Rich book:

Have a billionaire father to cosign massive loans?

Still, a good effort to come back from all that debt, although it looks like his lenders weren't as fortunate.


----------



## noirua (15 October 2006)

swingstar said:
			
		

> Maybe a new chapter for his How To Get Rich book:
> 
> Have a billionaire father to cosign massive loans?
> 
> Still, a good effort to come back from all that debt, although it looks like his lenders weren't as fortunate.





Ah yes, dear old Dad Fred came to the rescue of prodigal son, Donald:  http://genealogy.about/od/famous_family_trees/p/trump.htm

This song probably fits as well:  http://www.imagesaustralia.com/thewildrover.htm


Apart from all that, the US appear to be set to lower rates shortly and RIN should be the better for it. The buy-back should continue into the new year, adding benefit.


----------



## Sultan of Swing (15 October 2006)

noirua said:
			
		

> Ah yes, dear old Dad Fred came to the rescue of prodigal son, Donald:  http://genealogy.about/od/famous_family_trees/p/trump.htm




I couldn't get this link to work on MIE or Firefox. 

Could you post it again please?

Cheers


----------



## noirua (17 October 2006)

Sultan of Swing said:
			
		

> I couldn't get this link to work on MIE or Firefox.
> 
> Could you post it again please?
> 
> Cheers




Ahhh yes, just a "com" between success and failure, or, just a Fred Christ Trump perhaps:  http://genealogy.about.com/od/famous_family_trees/p/trump.htm


----------



## michael_selway (27 October 2006)

Realist said:
			
		

> $14.72 now, not bad!
> 
> What will the dividends in November be?




not much 

Earnings and Dividends Forecast (cents per share) 
2006 2007 2008 2009 
EPS 106.6 118.6 123.3 129.1 
DPS 78.0 41.8 43.0 46.0 

btw do u still hodl this?

thx

MS


----------



## Devil_Star (27 October 2006)

Anyone knows what happened to Rinker's SP for the last few mins before market close? What leads to the huge bounce? Thanks!


----------



## Realist (27 October 2006)

Yeah I still hold.

Why did Rinker drop a little then rocket up $1.20 or nearly 10% today.

Something is going on, and someone knows something...


----------



## Realist (27 October 2006)

Devil_Star said:
			
		

> Anyone knows what happened to Rinker's SP for the last few mins before market close? What leads to the huge bounce? Thanks!




Yeah what a surprise - dunno but something went on in the last minute, and it seems huge!!


----------



## Devil_Star (27 October 2006)

I think the early drop is due to the further slump of USA's housing market. New low for new homes sale in US. Then I just bought 800 CFDs this morning coz I believe RIN is a potential takeover target. Could that be a takeover rumor again?


----------



## Realist (27 October 2006)

Yeah I am guessing takeover time. That rise was large and quick, just before the close someone bought alot and paid alot!!


----------



## Devil_Star (27 October 2006)

If that is true, RIN may fly again into sky next monday, by the time people have time to realise what happens. Hope that's what's happening. I just started buying and accumulating RIN's shares and CFDs last week.


----------



## x2rider (27 October 2006)

hi folks
 An article in the Wall street journal speculating on the takeover by Cemex SA. But has been discounted by Rinker 
 Where there is smoke there is usually fire 
Cheers Martin


----------



## scsl (27 October 2006)

Devil_Star said:
			
		

> If that is true, RIN may fly again into sky next monday, by the time people have time to realise what happens. Hope that's what's happening.



I say RIN will open at $21 on Monday!!  :jump: 

hehehe


----------



## Realist (27 October 2006)

Well you'd think it'll rocket on Monday morning if todays last minute splurge is anything to go by, be interesting to see what it does on the Dow Jones tonight!


----------



## Ken (27 October 2006)

realist congrats,

you must be punching the air!


----------



## Realist (27 October 2006)

Ken said:
			
		

> realist congrats,
> 
> you must be punching the air!




Not really, but with a close of around $20 on Monday I may be...   

I never bought that many either..


----------



## michael_selway (27 October 2006)

Realist said:
			
		

> Well you'd think it'll rocket on Monday morning if todays last minute splurge is anything to go by, be interesting to see what it does on the Dow Jones tonight!




actually it should fall on Monday.

because RIN dismissed the Wall Street Journal Article? or maybe not?   

http://www.smh.com.au/news/Business...n-takeover-talk/2006/10/27/1161749307870.html



> Rinker shares jump on takeover talk
> October 27, 2006 - 6:29PM
> 
> Shares in building materials firm Rinker Group Ltd have jumped nearly six per cent on the back of takeover speculation.
> ...





thx

MS


----------



## Devil_Star (27 October 2006)

Great, that's what I have been awaiting for weeks. It's great timing for the big sharks (like Cemex) to take over competitors (like RIN) when the market condition is bad enough. Otherwise, it will take quite a while for RIN's SP to recover when the big picture still looks gray. Haha, go Rinker go!


----------



## Joe Blow (27 October 2006)

scsl said:
			
		

> I say RIN will open at $21 on Monday!!  :jump:
> 
> hehehe






			
				Realist said:
			
		

> Not really, but with a close of around $20 on Monday I may be...




Now I know you guys are just being a little optimistic (with the possibility of a little tongue in cheek   ) but lets try and ease up on this sort of speculation, which could be construed by some as a ramp.

Of course if RIN does close at over $20 on Monday I will owe you both an apology.


----------



## 3 veiws of a secret (27 October 2006)

I've just been watching the Austin Powers dvd and he reckons its 1 billion dollars !!!!!!! 

Furthermore lets focus on this snippet in Michael Selways cut/paste article  ...."might be considering an offer for the group."....... &   "We wish to advise that we are not aware of any basis for that article."

I reckon Minimi was out with stockbrokers lunchtime, perhaps slightly too many campari's.

Ironically I was watching this share today and doing my maths when it was static at $13.37.......when watching the news I see $14.70 closed. Remarkable!


----------



## Realist (27 October 2006)

3 veiws of a secret said:
			
		

> I've just been watching the Austin Powers dvd and he reckons its 1 billion dollars !!!!!!!




I hope it wasn't "The spy who shagged me", as that is on Channel 9 in 1.5 hours.    

We'll know how RIN will go on Monday in about 3 hours...


----------



## bvbfan (27 October 2006)

Here's an article I came across about the offer at $13
US adrs code is RIN if anyone wants to follow


----------



## YELNATS (27 October 2006)

x2rider said:
			
		

> hi folks
> An article in the Wall street journal speculating on the takeover by Cemex SA. But has been discounted by Rinker
> Where there is smoke there is usually fire
> Cheers Martin



Or blue cod.


----------



## YELNATS (27 October 2006)

YELNATS said:
			
		

> Or blue cod.



 Seriously I hold RIN too and likewise hope for a nice Monday surprise!


----------



## Realist (27 October 2006)

Yep that values Rinker at about $18.70.

WoooHoooo!!!


$13 billion international concrete deal

Deal would give Mexican firm Cemex a big presence in U.S. market and create one of the world's largest building materials companies.
October 27 2006: 8:22 AM EDT


PHILADELPHIA (Reuters) -- Mexico's Cemex SAB de CV said Friday it would offer to buy Australia's Rinker Group Ltd. for $12.8 billion, or $13 per share, in a move to create one of the world's largest building materials companies.

*Cemex (Charts) said the offer represents a premium of 27 percent over Rinker's closing stock price on the Australian Stock Exchange on Friday.*


----------



## BSD (27 October 2006)

http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601087&sid=a63q2TGDVdDs&refer=home

Official now

Rumour comes across Dj Wire at 4pm - best clients get called

Punters paying up on the close today are going to be happy!


A$17.50 offer arrives late night

New shorts about to get flogged - down 3.5% today pre rumour...


----------



## YELNATS (27 October 2006)

Realist said:
			
		

> Yep that values Rinker at about $18.70.
> 
> WoooHoooo!!!
> 
> ...




WoooHoooo Indeed!!!

But US$13 translates at about A$17.10 at E/R of 0.76 which is less than a 27% premium over final price of $14.70. Seems to be a discrepancy.

regards YN.


----------



## scsl (27 October 2006)

DJ News is saying that the bid is hostile. Will this make things different?

Also, at first glance, I think RIN will end up being taken over at more than A$18.70 or whatever the current offer is. 

(I'm not attempting to ramp here. I currently don't hold RIN but am looking to buy and wait for a possible higher offer.)


----------



## Realist (27 October 2006)

Well it is up over 30% in pre-market trading so far...

Pre-Market: 69.50  16.10 (30.15%)


----------



## michael_selway (27 October 2006)

Realist said:
			
		

> Yep that values Rinker at about $18.70.
> 
> WoooHoooo!!!
> 
> ...




wow good news i guess, yeah depends on what exchange rate used

thx

MS


----------



## scsl (27 October 2006)

News just out...



> The Rinker spokeswoman said the company had received a call from Cemex earlier Friday evening about the bid.
> She also said Rinker hasn't altered its fiscal 2007 earnings guidance, which chief executive David Clarke told a New York industry conference late last month was for a gain of 13% to 21% in earnings per share before one-time gains and the impact of a capital return and special dividend. Clarke said Rinker expects EPS of 84 U.S. cents to 90 U.S. cents.
> Cemex is offering A$17.00 a share in cash for Rinker, with the target stock ending the week at A$14.70, up 83 cents.
> While Rinker shares were lower for most of the session amid investor concern about the outlook for local building material stocks with significant U.S. exposure, the shares soared in the last few minutes after the Wall Street Journal newspaper said Cemex was planning a bid for Rinker.
> ...


----------



## Realist (27 October 2006)

They may find they need to pay more...



> Cemex to Offer About $11.7B for Rinker
> Friday October 27, 8:18 am ET
> Mexico's Cemex to Offer About $11.7 Billion in Cash for Australia's Rinker
> 
> ...


----------



## michael_selway (27 October 2006)

Realist said:
			
		

> They may find they need to pay more...




oh my, US $71.50!

thx

MS


----------



## tour (28 October 2006)

woa just when i though i was gonna sell  yep this baby will be at least $18 bux by monday, hope we get to keep the dividends too.
lol david tweed wouldve made a bucket load if gullible investors sold. 
hopefully there be a counterbid. this is a hold hold hold!


----------



## Realist (28 October 2006)

Closed at $71.10.

So it's obviously gonna be around AUD $19 to $20 on Monday!!


----------



## noirua (28 October 2006)

Cemex has bid US$12.8 billion for Rinker Group...:  http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601087&sid=a2pr.kU183k8&refer=home


----------



## michael_selway (28 October 2006)

Realist said:
			
		

> Closed at $71.10.
> 
> So it's obviously gonna be around AUD $19 to $20 on Monday!!




do you reckon it willopen below that liekmaybe 17 and then slowly creep up to 19?

thx

MS


----------



## Realist (28 October 2006)

michael_selway said:
			
		

> do you reckon it willopen below that liekmaybe 17 and then slowly creep up to 19?
> 
> thx
> 
> MS





No, I wouldn't think so. The US stock exchange tells us exactly what people will pay for RIN as they traded it all day Friday,  I'll do the maths myself to work out the exact AUD$ price. We all know an exact price and it will open and stay at that price - give or take some small fluctuations.

It may infact open at $20 and go to $19, I doubt it'd open and climb though.

We'll wait and see anyway, I've been wrong before.


----------



## Sean K (28 October 2006)

This was a great pick up, well done Realist. When were we talking about takeover rumours and thought we picked the bottom? That was a few months ago wasn't it?


----------



## GreatPig (28 October 2006)

I don't hold any, but this should at least be good for my 12 month stock pick 

GP


----------



## Realist (28 October 2006)

kennas said:
			
		

> This was a great pick up, well done Realist. When were we talking about takeover rumours and thought we picked the bottom? That was a few months ago wasn't it?




Yep, it was a Buffet special, a large successful company with huge US exposure that makes great profits that dipped quite significantly on bad news. Get it cheap and hold.  I've got dividends and the takeover is a huge bonus.


----------



## Realist (28 October 2006)

> Originally Posted by ducati916
> 
> I posted this on the 09-02-2006 on reef
> 
> ...




Ridiculous...


----------



## noirua (28 October 2006)

noirua said:
			
		

> Cemex has bid US$12.8 billion for Rinker Group...:  http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601087&sid=a2pr.kU183k8&refer=home





The bid equates to just A$17 ( $13 ), providing the above article proves to be correct in all details. If the market expects no counterbid then Rinker may well trade in the range A$16.30 - A$16.60 - we do not know the complete bid package yet.

If the market thinks Lafarge or another outfit may counterbid, either a genuine bid or a spoiling exercise, then RIN will open above A$17.

I should have sold this stock at around A$21 when the opportunity was there, it now looks that i'll get somewhere between A$17 and A$19. For me this is a bit of a bail out.


----------



## Julia (29 October 2006)

noirua said:
			
		

> The bid equates to just A$17 ( $13 ), providing the above article proves to be correct in all details. If the market expects no counterbid then Rinker may well trade in the range A$16.30 - A$16.60 - we do not know the complete bid package yet.
> 
> If the market thinks Lafarge or another outfit may counterbid, either a genuine bid or a spoiling exercise, then RIN will open above A$17.
> 
> I should have sold this stock at around A$21 when the opportunity was there, it now looks that i'll get somewhere between A$17 and A$19. For me this is a bit of a bail out.




That's pretty much my attitude also, Noirua.  It peaked at $22.
All this excitement about the rising price is fine, but let's not forget that if it all comes to nothing the price will plummet very fast indeed.  

Apart from Realist, is anyone else a dedicated long term holder, or are we all out when the profit appears to have peaked?

Julia


----------



## Sultan of Swing (29 October 2006)

Julia said:
			
		

> Apart from Realist, is anyone else a dedicated long term holder, or are we all out when the profit appears to have peaked?




I bought a few at a little over $13 a few weeks back just after they dipped to the low $12 range. I bought them for a long term hold at the time.

I'm not quite sure what to do with this news. I'm greedy and want as much as I can get for them and will probably sell if the price is right, whatever that may be!!?!?!   

Tomorrow will be an interesting day. I'm excited!!  : That is, as excited as I get over a stock.


----------



## Ferret (29 October 2006)

I bought some in my super fund two months ago for just over $13.  At that price it was cheap on fundamentals looked like a good buy and hold for a super fund.

Obviously, I'm happy to take a good profit but I also believe in the long term prospects for the company and am sorry I might not get to share these.

Also, I think it's a shame another good, successful Australian company is going to end up in foreign hands.

Ferret


----------



## michael_selway (30 October 2006)

Realist said:
			
		

> No, I wouldn't think so. The US stock exchange tells us exactly what people will pay for RIN as they traded it all day Friday,  I'll do the maths myself to work out the exact AUD$ price. We all know an exact price and it will open and stay at that price - give or take some small fluctuations.
> 
> It may infact open at $20 and go to $19, I doubt it'd open and climb though.
> 
> We'll wait and see anyway, I've been wrong before.




yeah thats true, however thebelow they are saying $17 but they also say likely to be rejected the bid

http://www.smh.com.au/news/business/rinker-set-up-to-be-sold/2006/10/29/1162056866598.html



> NOBODY who owns shares in Rinker should be surprised that the company has received a takeover offer. The question for them is whether Cemex has a lay-down slam with its $17 a share, $16.8 billion bid.
> 
> In my opinion, the answer is no. In the rather prosaic world of concrete and gravel, Rinker has league-table leading statistics. Rinker's board can use them to argue that Cemex has lobbed an opportunistic bid.
> 
> ...




thx

MS


----------



## Sweet Synergy (30 October 2006)

Got this off Etrade this morning ... thought it might be of interest.  I don't hold any RIN .... but good luck to those that do!   

As the Australian market opens this morning there will be a lot of attention on Rinker, the quarrying and ready mix concrete spin off out of CSR. Over the weekend Mexico's Cemex, the world's No. 3 cement maker, bid $16.8 billion or $17.10 per share for Rinker to create one of the world's biggest building materials companies with huge U.S. operations. Cemex operates in 50 countries, while Rinker has 80% of its business in the United States, mostly in Florida and Arizona, and the rest in Australia and China. Rinker's share price closed up 4% on Friday at $14.70 on speculation of a bid and the price is likely to go above the $17.10 bid price when trading opens this morning. The Rinker board has already rejected the offer and I'm sure the hedge funds will be punting on a higher bid, either from Cemex or someone else. If Cemex wins it would become the largest ready-mix concrete maker and the largest aggregates firm in the world, but it would remain behind France's Lafarge and Swiss-based Holcim Ltd. in cement. It would also be the biggest-ever takeover by a Mexican company -- more than twice the size of Cemex's 2005 acquisition of Britain's RMC for $5.8 billion. Cemex plans to finance the deal with 100 percent new debt. Medina said Cemex's debt pile would hit $19.5 billion in the deal, although it is likely to cut its current net debt level of $7.14 billion before the transaction is completed. Cemex's share price slumped 5% on Friday as analysts worried about the size of the acquisition and the additional debt for Cemex. Cemex Chairman Lorenzo Zambrano vowed to return Cemex's finances to its so-called "cruising speed" of 2.7 times net debt to earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation and amortization, within two years even if it means selling assets. Rinker is focused on the fast-growing states of Florida and Arizona and its business in Australia, where it is the market leader. The combined company would have revenue of $23.2 billion, Cemex said. A Mexican broking analyst Carlos Hermosillo, who is with the Vector brokerage in Mexico City, "The operation makes a lot of sense because Rinker is more profitable than Cemex. And I think they are being conservative about cost savings." Cemex expects to see about $130 million in pretax annual cost savings by the third year following the acquisition. Asked why Cemex only saw so few savings from Rinker, Lorenzo Zambrano said: "It is a well run company." A Rinker spokeswoman in Sydney said the company had not been expecting a takeover offer. "It was clearly an unsolicited bid. It's too early to make any comment at this stage about our response," said Rinker spokeswoman Debra Stirling. 

Charlie Aitken, the head of trading at institutional broker Southern Cross Equities, and one of the key writers at Eureka Report, said he will be shocked if Cemex wins Rinker with its current bid. "This is one where the fund managers will fight it out, they will be looking for something closer to A$20 before they even consider selling," Aitken said, noting Rinker had been at the offer price in early June. The Dow Jones Newswire is running a story that the company is going to reject the offer as opportunistic


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## Julia (30 October 2006)

11.11 am  price is dropping fast  Has there been some news?

Julia


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## JAK (30 October 2006)

Hi all,  some urgent advice would be appreciated ......

Last night through etrade a put a limit to sell my RIN shares - Good Until Cancelled

What indicators should I be looking at to see if it will sell, and at what point should I consider reducing $ price limit if it looks unrealistic ?

I only have etrade no other software

Thanks


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## noirua (30 October 2006)

I've sold my shares in Rinker Group this morning. Hope it goes well for those who have stayed with it, who knows, you could get $20.


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## niknah (30 October 2006)

Judging by the volume in previous months, many people may have got in at around $14-$13, alot of them maybe willing to sell.

I'm holding, the bid will fail and there may not be another bid but they'll probably get to this price again later on when US housing recovers.


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## TheRage (30 October 2006)

I sold this morning also. I hope the Cemex bid falls through and the share prices dives so I can jump back into rinker. I really like the fundamentals on this company.


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## Realist (30 October 2006)

18.43 now. 

I'll hold, just 3 more weeks and we get dividends as well.

No point in selling yet, the offer gives a floor to the price, we may get $21 plus dividends - who knows?


----------



## Julia (30 October 2006)

I can understand those of you who have sold this morning.  I was tempted to do the same, but decided it was a bit premature in view of no official statement from the RIN board yet.  Of course, if they outright reject it and leave no room for increased offer, then I'll be sorry and will revert to a long term hold.  Article from the SMH today.

http://www.smh.com.au/articles/2006/10/29/1162056866586.html

Julia


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## noirua (30 October 2006)

Julia said:
			
		

> I can understand those of you who have sold this morning.  I was tempted to do the same, but decided it was a bit premature in view of no official statement from the RIN board yet.  Of course, if they outright reject it and leave no room for increased offer, then I'll be sorry and will revert to a long term hold.  Article from the SMH today.
> 
> http://www.smh.com.au/articles/2006/10/29/1162056866586.html
> 
> Julia




Hi Julia, I sold at $18.65 - 67 and I can't see more than $20 tops on this one and maybe only $19. These matters can be dragged out for a long while and I find it very laborious.  All the best


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## YELNATS (30 October 2006)

noirua said:
			
		

> Hi Julia, I sold at $18.65 - 67 and I can't see more than $20 tops on this one and maybe only $19. These matters can be dragged out for a long while and I find it very laborious.  All the best




Hi, I also just sold out at $18.55 for the same reasons. Only held for 10 weeks. Can't sneeze at 43% gain in that short a period. "Bird in the hand ....." , you know.
Regards YN.


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## Devil_Star (30 October 2006)

I sold all RIN CFDs which I bought last friday. Don't want to risk too much daily interest. I also sold 1/3 of my RIN shares bought 2 weeks ago, and still hold 2/3, expecting another bid to come.


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## 168 (30 October 2006)

Ferret said:
			
		

> I bought some in my super fund two months ago for just over $13.  At that price it was cheap on fundamentals looked like a good buy and hold for a super fund.



Shame on myself. I didn't buy more RIN. The buying did cross my mind but my indicators did not show a buy sign yet and I was busy checking on other stocks first. Never mind (consolation to me-self).


----------



## michael_selway (30 October 2006)

Realist said:
			
		

> Yep, it was a Buffet special, a large successful company with huge US exposure that makes great profits that dipped quite significantly on bad news. Get it cheap and hold.  I've got dividends and the takeover is a huge bonus.




yes correct, has to be a good price as well

e.g. if u bought RIN at 20+....

thx

MS


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## Julia (30 October 2006)

Another article on the takeover.

http://www.smh.com.au/articles/2006/10/30/1162056894363.html

Julia


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## Julia (31 October 2006)

SP down this morning.  I got cold feet and sold on the open at 18.48.

Will anyone who has sold be considering buying back in temporarily or long term if the ante is upped, as seems to be indicated may well happen from the following.

http://www.aireview.com.au/index.php?act=view&catid=8&id=4609&setSub=1

Julia


----------



## TheRage (31 October 2006)

I ran some numbers this morning and I am wondering how Cemex is going to pay for Rinker. Below is there balance sheet and profit/loss statement with FY05 being the first column, Fy04 the second and Fy03 the third. The company is already 8 billion in long term debt and even if they buy rinker at $18 a share that equates to 18 * 900,000,000 shares that equals 16.2 billion Australian or about 0.8 *16.2 = 12.96 billion US. This is going to be one very heavily leverage company with yearly income equivalent to 2 billion dollars. The interest alone on 20 billion @ 5% is 1 billion. While Rinker will bring 1 billion in cash flow also the company will be covering it loan but not much else. I know I would be a little concerned owning cemex especially if there are any more interest rate hikes in America. 


Assets 
Current Assets 
 Cash And Cash Equivalents 593,991   144,928   291,811   
 Short Term Investments -   197,143   -   
 Net Receivables 2,436,321   759,409   831,410   
 Inventory 1,084,845   632,098   630,712   
 Other Current Assets -   216,617   75,174   

Total Current Assets 4,115,157   1,950,195   1,829,107   
Long Term Investments 1,539,894   1,840,599   264,957   
Property Plant and Equipment 15,773,079   9,553,884   9,610,219   
Goodwill 4,882,965   3,878,780   3,871,707   
Intangible Assets 116,994   178,404   242,610   
Accumulated Amortization -   165,245   -   
Other Assets 37,293   278,402   (112,810) 
Deferred Long Term Asset Charges 924,327   355,508   162,492   

Total Assets 27,389,709   17,870,527   15,868,282   

Liabilities 
Current Liabilities 
 Accounts Payable 2,140,860   1,046,108   1,502,582   
 Short/Current Long Term Debt 1,310,928   1,042,942   1,330,958   
 Other Current Liabilities 611,196   321,521   -   

Total Current Liabilities 4,062,984   2,410,571   2,833,540   
Long Term Debt 8,360,886   5,214,288   4,543,565   
Other Liabilities 1,375,656   378,875   831,169   
Deferred Long Term Liability Charges 2,698,953   1,150,699   1,323,108   
Minority Interest 532,797   406,915   -   
Negative Goodwill -   -   -   

Total Liabilities 17,031,276   9,561,347   9,531,383   

Stockholders' Equity  
Misc Stocks Options Warrants -   -   -   
Redeemable Preferred Stock -   -   -   
Preferred Stock -   -   -   
Common Stock 353,307   330,661   311,422   
Retained Earnings 3,425,841   4,333,246   3,216,474   
Treasury Stock -   -   -   
Capital Surplus 4,383,369   3,708,180   3,227,140   
Other Stockholder Equity 2,195,916   (62,907) (418,137) 

*Profit/ loss Statement*
Total Revenue 15,131,937   8,143,316   7,175,018   
Cost of Revenue 9,156,780   4,582,943   4,136,173   

Gross Profit 5,975,157   3,560,372   3,038,845   

 Operating Expenses 
 Research Development -   -   -   
 Selling General and Administrative 3,519,120   1,710,068   1,581,472   
 Non Recurring -   -   -   
 Others (1,674) (80,954) (177,772) 

 Total Operating Expenses -   -   -   


Operating Income or Loss 2,457,711   1,931,259   1,635,145   

 Income from Continuing Operations 
 Total Other Income/Expenses Net (83,700) (186,361) (727,288) 
 Earnings Before Interest And Taxes 2,439,483   1,744,898   897,959   
 Interest Expense -   -   4,072   
 Income Before Tax 2,439,483   1,744,898   893,887   
 Income Tax Expense 350,052   148,983   95,248   
 Minority Interest (53,568) (23,744) (48,221) 

 Net Income From Continuing Ops 2,056,695   1,611,496   794,273   

 Non-recurring Events 
 Discontinued Operations -   -   -   
 Extraordinary Items -   -   -   
 Effect Of Accounting Changes -   -   (57,086) 
 Other Items -   -   -   


Net Income 2,056,695   1,611,496   737,187   
Preferred Stock And Other Adjustments -   -   -   

Net Income Applicable To Common Shares $2,056,695   $1,611,496   $737,187   


Total Stockholder Equity 10,358,433   8,309,180   6,336,899   

Net Tangible Assets $5,358,474   $4,251,995   $2,222,582


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## scsl (1 November 2006)

Good read from Bloomberg... pretty much says that Cemex are going to get nowhere with their current bid. 

http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601081&sid=a9UkdMOTkBnw&refer=australia


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## JAK (1 November 2006)

Just an observation .... up to Sep/Oct the analysts price targets, valuation etc.... for RIN was *average* about $15 no more than $16, with a bleak  future over the next year or so.... similar was quoted in this forum.
Suddenly... they hear of a $17 takeover, the same analysts start screaming no..no...no... its worth at least  $20+.... even though they themselves were saying the other day its not worth more than $16 -$17….

Why the change ??? …. is this a reflection of pure opportunistic greed personally motivated by self gains & commissions,(incl. Perpetual who bought 10.6% precisely, just before the takeover bid !!!) ... I cant help but feel that analysts are no better than car salesmen......and the true value of the company is lost in this rubble of crap

I use ETrade ..... in May 06 their Recommendation (11 analysts) was over 80% Strong/Mod Buy at $20-21, a few weeks later when RIN dived 30% to $12- 13, there Recommendation was ....wait !!!! .... over 80% Strong/Mod Buy  ….. good advise !!!!!! …I would recommend them to my mother .... sure !!!


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## scsl (2 November 2006)

JAK said:
			
		

> Just an observation .... up to Sep/Oct the analysts price targets, valuation etc.... for RIN was *average* about $15 no more than $16, with a bleak  future over the next year or so.... similar was quoted in this forum.
> Suddenly... they hear of a $17 takeover, the same analysts start screaming no..no...no... its worth at least  $20+.... even though they themselves were saying the other day its not worth more than $16 -$17….
> 
> Why the change ??? …. is this a reflection of pure opportunistic greed personally motivated by self gains & commissions,(incl. Perpetual who bought 10.6% precisely, just before the takeover bid !!!) ... I cant help but feel that analysts are no better than car salesmen......and the true value of the company is lost in this rubble of crap
> ...



I also noticed this when Coles Myer was approached by KKR. Could it be that the investment banks that these analysts work for also hold the stock and are wanting to 'squeeze' more out of the sp? Or like you said about commissions... these banks make a lot of money from 'clipping' trades, especially their institutional trading desks. Sure, there's all this talk about there being Chinese walls present, but who believes this works 100% of the time?

About RIN, from the articles that I've read, I really don't think RIN is going to be easily taken over. Also, Cemex _have_ the capacity to pay well over $20 per share and they're going to have to by the sounds of it.


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## Julia (2 November 2006)

Suggestion here that Cemex has the capacity to pay well over $17 for RIN.

http://www.smh.com.au/articles/2006/11/02/1162339946089.html

I see it's down 18c today but that could be simply reflection of the overall market.

Julia


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## scsl (4 November 2006)

*Cemex could up Rinker bid based on funding-report*
Wed Nov 1, 2006 



> NEW YORK, Nov 1 (Reuters) - Mexican cement maker Cemex could raise its bid for Australia's Rinker Group Ltd. by almost 14 percent, based on financing it has arranged for the deal, a research report said on Wednesday.
> 
> In a bidder's statement filed on Tuesday with the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission, Cemex said it would need $11.64 billion to complete its all-cash offer for the building materials company.
> 
> ...


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## pacer (4 November 2006)

You actualy have to care now...the *short *and the *long* of it are gone!


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## scsl (5 November 2006)

pacer said:
			
		

> You actualy have to care now...the *short *and the *long* of it are gone!



pacer, what do mean?


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## pacer (5 November 2006)

Sorry...I mean, I have (as Maxwell Smart used to say) "missed it by that much"....and by "care" I mean that it was a golden opportunity I missed....now I have to get over it and move on to the next good play...ie never look back/ponder on these misses for too long...always look forward for the next one or the game isn't being played properly, and it'll drive me nuts!

That's the best I can do ATM.....all the clues were there.


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## scsl (6 November 2006)

pacer said:
			
		

> Sorry...I mean, I have (as Maxwell Smart used to say) "missed it by that much"....and by "care" I mean that it was a golden opportunity I missed....now I have to get over it and move on to the next good play...ie never look back/ponder on these misses for too long...always look forward for the next one or the game isn't being played properly, and it'll drive me nuts!
> 
> That's the best I can do ATM.....all the clues were there.



I wouldn't necessarily say that it's game over for RIN just yet. True, the golden opportunity may have been missed by many here, but seeing as a higher bid is widely anticipated, there's possibly more left in the RIN sp.


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## imaginator (7 November 2006)

hey this stock was basic buffetology.
Good company, but hit down by bad market.
Does anyone know any stocks like this lurking around?


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## TheRage (7 November 2006)

There arn't too many undervalued stocks popping up at the moment. I hold Reb, ARP and Fun and with the except of Fun are fairly to full valued at the moment. I also owned Rin and CDO this year based on bad news. There are some stocks out there at the moment where bad news is hitting the Sp fairly well but I am not sure whether it is an example of a cyclic downturn or actually a case of bad business. A good example of this is AWB. Anyway I would also be interested to see if anyone knew of any undervalued stocks at the moment.


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## scsl (9 November 2006)

imaginator said:
			
		

> hey this stock was basic buffetology.
> Good company, but hit down by bad market.
> Does anyone know any stocks like this lurking around?



Perhaps you could have a look at MIG, ABS...

Also, I'm going to say BHP as well! Fantastic company that is still considerably cheap and about 12% down on its high before the correction.

Tomorrow should be interesting for RIN... it releases its interim results.


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## arlee123 (9 November 2006)

imaginator said:
			
		

> hey this stock was basic buffetology.
> Good company, but hit down by bad market.
> Does anyone know any stocks like this lurking around?




Had a look at CSR...looks pretty good to me..good potential...but...just had a profit downgrade...so yeah....anyone have any opinions ?


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## TheRage (9 November 2006)

I bought into CSR at 3.20 yesterday. Personally I think the share price may be hammered a little now that interest rates went up yesterday and considering the company announced a 4% reduction in EBITA. However in my mind the 4% reduction was partly due to the higher costs of the share repurchase which ultimately increases EPS by reducing the S in the equation. The problem I had buying into CSR was the lack of financial data available for CSR minus it's Rinker component. I tried running several forecasting models on 3 years worth of data and the share didn't really stack up. However when I included the pre-demerger data aswell the CSR looked very promising. So in effect I am buying knowing that some of the data I used probably belonged to the combination of CSR and Rinker. However this did not deter me from buying because I like the management of the company and CSR only has 600 million debt on a cashflow of 300 million. Therefore it would only take csr 2 yrs to pay back its debt. This is in no shape or form financial advice to buy CSR I am merely expressing my opinion on why I bought the stock. By the way I traditionally use fundamentals and forecasting techniques I am not really into charting. Not that there is anything wrong with charting.


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## Ferret (9 November 2006)

I thought RINs result looked quite good today and won't do any harm to their prospects of getting a better offer from Cemex or anyone else.  

Decided to pick up some more at $18.61 on the closing bell and before they go ex div.  We'll see what happens.  At least the offer puts a bit of a floor under the share price.

Ferret


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## noirua (25 November 2006)

Came back to have a look at Rinker as they slip to A$18.35 after news of further weakness in the USA property sector. The market is now doubting that any counter-bid will be anywhere near the hopefulls A$21 - A$22. The weak US Dollar and strong Aussie Dollar has also put a dampener on it as well.

How much? If another bid comes, well it will be an all stock bid or nearly all stock bid, that's my thinking anyway. That bid may then have the possibility of withering on the vine and I doubt Rinker are worth more than A$19 in their cloud covered market.


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## Lert (26 November 2006)

Well, I've held RIN for over 12months, the dividend is more or less in the bag and the future is uncertain.. I might just jump ship next week.  I was lucky with EXL with the upgraded offer and still holding CML.. the suspense is killing me.


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## noirua (29 November 2006)

Lert said:
			
		

> Well, I've held RIN for over 12months, the dividend is more or less in the bag and the future is uncertain.. I might just jump ship next week.  I was lucky with EXL with the upgraded offer and still holding CML.. the suspense is killing me.




I bought back my stock this morning at about 40 cents under my selling price. Maybe, just maybe, there's a bid coming shortly and it may well be between A$20 and A$21, imho.


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## Lert (30 November 2006)

Well, I'm still in there with RIN. Some nice buying support yesterday.


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## noirua (30 November 2006)

Rinker closed on the NYSE at US$72.50 ( ADR = 5 shares ) ( US$14.53 against Cemex bid of US$13 ) after reaching US$72.65.


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## noirua (1 December 2006)

A report by Bloomberg now further information is available on Rinker:  http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=newsarchive&sid=a2n0qjoc28o8


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## noirua (12 December 2006)

Cemex are playing the slow game after not raising previous bids; the closure date is 31st Jan 07.

Would be embarrassing for Cemex if they got acceptances for less than 5%.

No need for any new bidder to make a move yet as they can let Cemex sweat.


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## shinobi346 (12 December 2006)

I wonder how much money Rinker had to waste making that document advising s/h to reject Cemex's laughable bid.


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## scsl (13 December 2006)

shinobi346 said:
			
		

> I wonder how much money Rinker had to waste making that document advising s/h to reject Cemex's laughable bid.



It's big alright!!

Though it'll probably end up being worthwhile. Having said that, I think most Rinker shareholders wouldn't need to receive the document to make up their minds about *rejecting* the current offer.


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## noirua (13 December 2006)

shinobi346 said:
			
		

> I wonder how much money Rinker had to waste making that document advising s/h to reject Cemex's laughable bid.




Yes that's a very good point and indicates that Rinker Directors may have their eyes off the ball as they concentrate on resisting the bid. They have to also spend time talking to the companies major shareholders and to possible white knights.


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## noirua (29 December 2006)

Starting to wonder why I bought back into this stock again, though it's probably because I want to see Cemex thoroughly beaten on this one. In the past they dug their heals in and won the day with offers that were certainly not generous. 

Cemex have sent a reminder to all shareholders with an extra envelope, BUT failed to say how many have accepted the offer so far. 

No need for a rival to show their face yet, as they see Cemex struggling away to get old Fred from his Melbourne corner shop to accept their offer with his 10 Rinker shares. They can't up the offer as they would be bidding against themselves and many would have to pay capital gains on the all cash offer anyway. 

I wouldn't say that CEMEX haven't got a clue what they are doing, only that everyone else could have done better and old Fred from the Melbourne corner shop is offering help and advice for a small fee. Take his offer CEMEX as no one's taking yours.


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## noirua (2 January 2007)

Rinker Group trade a little over $18. It would be difficult for Cemex if no bidder arrives and no one accepts their offer either. They can't really bid against themselves and why should a counter-bidder come forward in this situation. 
Red faced Cemex may have to withdraw with their tails between their legs.


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## TheRage (2 January 2007)

noirua said:
			
		

> Red faced Cemex may have to withdraw with their tails between their legs.




I hope your right. It would be nice to keep this little gem Australia owned.


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## noirua (3 January 2007)

TheRage said:
			
		

> I hope your right. It would be nice to keep this little gem Australia owned.





Looks as if it's taken over a bit of the USA at the moment.  Hit $18.14 before falling back to $18.10 today. The US quote was up yesterday.


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## noirua (4 January 2007)

USA quote is up 1.2% as views become more widespread, so Bloomberg report, that the US property market has finished its slide and should firm up from here.


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## ducati916 (4 January 2007)

Housing will not unwind in this short a timeframe, plenty more pain to come;





> _AP
> Sector Snap: Home Builders
> Wednesday January 3, 12:04 pm ET
> Shares of Home Builders Fall As Lennar Warns of Fourth-Quarter Loss
> ...




jog on
d998


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## noirua (8 January 2007)

Unwind, plenty more pain to come, well, maybe not. 
The reason I purchased some more shares this morning are: The US Dollar will continue to strengthen, IMHO, and fuel and metal costs will drop for Rinker. 

The property negatives, I believe, are overdone. Sure, we have a bid situation and who knows what will happen next. One thing is sure and that is, low commodity prices will strengthen the US Currency and weaken the Aussie - good news for this Aussie ASX 20 stock with most of its assets in the States.


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## noirua (15 January 2007)

Up 11 cents at $17.94 this morning. Price at the time of the original bid was $18.70 and RIN have withered on the vine since then.

I still hold my personal view that a counter-bidder is waiting to see if Cemex fail to obtain shares on this US$13 (minus divi) offer. Cemex can't sensibly bid against themselves and may be boxed into a corner.


----------



## the barry (17 January 2007)

Interesting article stating cemex has increased its loan facility by US$1 Billion with its bankers. Anyone got any ideas as to if this stock is a good buy???

Thanx


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## noirua (17 January 2007)

At last Rinker are showing signs of a bounce back with a 40c rise to $18.36 in very lively trading, welllll, lively for RIN. 

Cemex have until the end of this Month to decide their next move. Next move?  Yes, raise the bid or withdraw, as extending it would be kind a pointless. Hopefully, no more than that, a white night is waiting to bid on a withdrawal by Cemex.

I doubt a second bid is likely to come close to the $21.50 that is hoped for by some. Probably around US$15.50 ( A$19.80 ) or/and equivalent in bidders stock.


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## noirua (22 January 2007)

Rinker buys " The Walling Sand & Gravel Co., Salem, Oregon ":

http://www.rinkergroup.com/Newsroom/News/

Rinker traded at $18.27 a few minutes ago.


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## noirua (23 January 2007)

Cemex have extended their offer for Rinker Group to 30th March 2007.

I suppose this has been done to try and force another interested party to come out of the woodwork and bid. Cemex, are thought to be embarrassed by their clumsy original bid, and raising the bid, bidding against themselves, would make them look exceedingly silly.


----------



## noirua (29 January 2007)

Rinker Materials, a subsiduary of Rinker Group, have purchased two further bolt on acquisitions; Union Concrete Co., operates plants near Knoxville Tennessee; and J.R. & Sons, in Utah.


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## Garpal Gumnut (29 January 2007)

noirua said:
			
		

> Rinker Materials, a subsiduary of Rinker Group, have purchased two further bolt on acquisitions; Union Concrete Co., operates plants near Knoxville Tennessee; and J.R. & Sons, in Utah.




Dear Noirua, Thanks for all the backgrounding you have done on RIN. Can you tell me why the price retraced from 22.22
on 26/4/06 to 12.11 on 12/9/06. Was it the poor housing starts in the US? Also if the Cemex offer is withdrawn has the price got the legs to stay above $18 in the absence of another or higher offer. I prefer to enter on trading ranges/sideways movements and RIN looks attractive on my entry criteria at present.


----------



## scsl (30 January 2007)

Garpal Gumnut said:
			
		

> Dear Noirua, Thanks for all the backgrounding you have done on RIN. Can you tell me why the price retraced from 22.22
> on 26/4/06 to 12.11 on 12/9/06. Was it the poor housing starts in the US? Also if the Cemex offer is withdrawn has the price got the legs to stay above $18 in the absence of another or higher offer. I prefer to enter on trading ranges/sideways movements and RIN looks attractive on my entry criteria at present.



The RIN sp fell together with most other stocks in the May correction, which hit stocks globally. RIN fell a lot more than most blue-chips because of fears that a slowdown in the US (where it derives 80% of income) housing sector would crimp earnings growth. 

IMO, if Cemex withdraw their offer, the sp will immediately drop, but more as a psychological thing ie. investors will sell out believing that they are not going to get another offer. In the absence of such an offer, I think it comes down to investors' opinions on the state and outlook of the housing sector. Having said that, I don't think we are going to see RIN below $15-16 anytime soon - even if no bids ever come up again.


----------



## noirua (30 January 2007)

Rinker closed at $18.70, up 42 cents, after reaching $18.85 earlier. The second quarterly results show that RIN are still managing to increase profits in a difficult climate in the US.


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## noirua (6 February 2007)

Rinker are up to $18.78, up 4 cents this morning. Upbeat broker news in the US on the last Quarterly results, augers well for an attempt at the $19 level.

Cemex must now be wondering what to do next. NYSE rules would require them to pay US$75 million compensation to Rinker Group if they pull out before March 31st.


----------



## Garpal Gumnut (6 February 2007)

noirua said:
			
		

> Rinker are up to $18.78, up 4 cents this morning. Upbeat broker news in the US on the last Quarterly results, augers well for an attempt at the $19 level.
> 
> Cemex must now be wondering what to do next. NYSE rules would require them to pay US$75 million compensation to Rinker Group if they pull out before March 31st.




Dear Noirua,
There is nothing to indicate on the charts that RIN is in anything but a sideways movement. Admittedly it has moved up in the last 15-20 days but on volume it has been a little lacking , no more than a little lacking, a lot lacking. I hope it does go through this resistance. I don't hold any but a rellie does. Personally I'd like to see it tank so that I could buy a few.

Garpal


----------



## noirua (9 February 2007)

Garpal Gumnut said:
			
		

> Dear Noirua,
> There is nothing to indicate on the charts that RIN is in anything but a sideways movement. Admittedly it has moved up in the last 15-20 days but on volume it has been a little lacking , no more than a little lacking, a lot lacking. I hope it does go through this resistance. I don't hold any but a rellie does. Personally I'd like to see it tank so that I could buy a few.
> 
> Garpal




Rinker closed at ADS$73.00 against an all-time high of ADS$83.46 and low of ADS$46.40, Thursday. The Cemex Bid is ADS$65.00 ( minus the last dividend ).


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## the barry (9 February 2007)

noirua said:
			
		

> Rinker are up to $18.78, up 4 cents this morning. Upbeat broker news in the US on the last Quarterly results, augers well for an attempt at the $19 level.
> 
> Cemex must now be wondering what to do next. NYSE rules would require them to pay US$75 million compensation to Rinker Group if they pull out before March 31st.




Why would cemex pull out?


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## noirua (9 February 2007)

the barry said:
			
		

> Why would cemex pull out?




Cemex have said, they would not raise the bid unless another party bids for Rinker Group. The major holders will not accept the bid price offered by Cemex, so the bid is almost certainly a basket case, in its present form. 

The possible counter bidders are sitting on their hands waiting for Cemex to run out of time. There is no need for them to bid with virtually everyone ignoring the offer. 

Cemex could lose face and withdraw and that would cost them US$75 million in compensation. Meanwhile, Rinker are not allowed to purchase assets above the value of US$200 million, if they do, Cemex may withdraw their bid and Rinker must compensate US shareholders.  
Cemex could raise the bid. Either way, it's embarrassing to bid against themselves.


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## Garpal Gumnut (11 February 2007)

So basically we are all saying that if you hold Rinker , continue holding, those who buy are hoping for a higher bid, and there is a chance that Cemex withdrawing their offer will cause the price to tank., and the charts are most unhelpful. Might be a case for tossing a coin for those of us who considered buying before the offer.

Garpal


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## the barry (11 February 2007)

Garpal Gumnut said:
			
		

> So basically we are all saying that if you hold Rinker , continue holding, those who buy are hoping for a higher bid, and there is a chance that Cemex withdrawing their offer will cause the price to tank., and the charts are most unhelpful. Might be a case for tossing a coin for those of us who considered buying before the offer.
> 
> Garpal




Basically nothing will happen from cemex until march when the ruling comes from the takeover panel as to wether they will be given clearance to take over rinker. Once they have been given clearance i believe we shall see a new raised offer.


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## the barry (11 February 2007)

noirua said:
			
		

> Cemex have said, they would not raise the bid unless another party bids for Rinker Group. The major holders will not accept the bid price offered by Cemex, so the bid is almost certainly a basket case, in its present form.
> 
> The possible counter bidders are sitting on their hands waiting for Cemex to run out of time. There is no need for them to bid with virtually everyone ignoring the offer.
> 
> ...




A couple of questions:

1. Why would cemex come out and say they will raise their bid? 
2. Why would it be embarrising for them to raise their bid?

Also, they are waiting till March to get clearance from the take over board till they make their next move.


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## noirua (12 February 2007)

the barry said:
			
		

> A couple of questions:
> 
> 1. Why would cemex come out and say they will raise their bid?
> 2. Why would it be embarrising for them to raise their bid?
> ...





Cemex have been told that a decision on "Antitrust clearance" can be expected by the end of March. 
Speculation is that Rinker have been in talks with Holcim Ltd., that have been denied by Mr Clarke of Rinker Group.

2) Embarrassing to bid against themselves. ( A bit like bidding $13 dollars at an auction and then surprising everyone by raising it to $15 dollars with no higher bid being made against you. )
1) Cemex have said they will not raise their bid unless there is a counterbid.


Rinker are now trading close to A$19.00 on the ASX this morning.


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## Garpal Gumnut (13 February 2007)

noirua said:
			
		

> Cemex have been told that a decision on "Antitrust clearance" can be expected by the end of March.
> Speculation is that Rinker have been in talks with Holcim Ltd., that have been denied by Mr Clarke of Rinker Group.
> 
> 2) Embarrassing to bid against themselves. ( A bit like bidding $13 dollars at an auction and then surprising everyone by raising it to $15 dollars with no higher bid being made against you. )
> ...





So again it comes down to the toss of a coin. I have 2 lucky anzac pennies so will trust them on this. I feel , I don't know why, that rin could be a $30+ stock. Who knows.

Garpal


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## noirua (13 February 2007)

It has been reported that Cemex have arranged for an increased loan from their Bankers of US$1 billion. IF they decided to use it in a bid, that would raise the offer to US$14.10 or A$18.26 ( exchange rate A$1.2944 to the US$ ). More likely, they will add an alternative cash and Cemex share packaged bid worth nearer US$15 or A$19.40.


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## noirua (14 February 2007)

Rinker are looking quite cheerful of late. The NYSE ADS's trade at US$73.34, close to a high point, since the bid was announced. Trading on the ASX at $18.90.


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## noirua (20 February 2007)

Rinker hit $20.00 at the opening and trade at $19.52, up 77 cents, in heavy trading, as rumours abound.


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## noirua (20 February 2007)

Cemex have been reported to have unloaded US$750 million in Bonds. This is in addition to the increase in the companies borrowing facility of US$1 billion. 
This could increase the US$13 per share bid to US$16 or ADS$80. Equivalent to A$20.50.


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## the barry (20 February 2007)

noirua said:
			
		

> Rinker hit $20.00 at the opening and trade at $19.52, up 77 cents, in heavy trading, as rumours abound.




vulcan have bid for one of rinkers major competitors at around 11.2 ebit.This would equate to a bid of around 21.50 for rinker at the same times ratio.I still don't think we will see anything further from cemex until they get clearance at the end of march.


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## reece55 (20 February 2007)

Whoever is acquiring the stock today has deep deep pockets........

Quite literally every time any significant volume is left on the seller side, it is getting whipped up at any cost.....

There's more left here IMO......

Cheers


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## noirua (22 February 2007)

Rinker closed at a 9 month high on the NYSE at ADS$76.19, up 9 cents. Opening on the ASX, up 10 cents at A$19.35. Will be interesting to see if the heavy trading continues today.

Barclays Global Investors have built up a holding of 5.04% in Rinker Group. Chances are increasing now of getting the maximum price out of Cemex - maybe looking for $23.00.


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## noirua (23 February 2007)

Rinker again closed at a 9 month high on the NYSE at ADS$76.64, up 45 cents. Not that far away from the Rinker Group all-time high of ADS$83.46. Could a further bid top the all-time high?


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## noirua (25 February 2007)

Further talk on the comments made last November by ABN Amro, that Rinker may seek a partnership with Hanson.  After the reported Hanson 12% profit increase and share price run-up of 25% in the last 6 months; This puts Hansons' Market Cap at US$6 billion. Rinker Market Cap stands at US$13.8 billion.


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## noirua (27 February 2007)

Sold out, as there may not be that much to go for now. Patience may eventually reward.


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## the barry (27 February 2007)

noirua said:
			
		

> Sold out, as there may not be that much to go for now. Patience may eventually reward.




Did you sell out?? How long were you in the stock for?


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## noirua (20 March 2007)

Now looking at Rinker Group again as news in the housing sector looks grim in the States and the stock price declines. RIN are probably better placed than most as supplying the housing sector is less important. Nearing the Cemex 31st March 07 decision day, on the bid, as this takeover bid drags on.


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## shinobi346 (20 March 2007)

The quarries they purchased in QLD  will complement the business well and are well poised to take advantage of the state of the Australian economy which is doing amazingly well. Maybe they will export the rock + cement overseas as well to places like China.


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## noirua (21 March 2007)

Rinker are picking up well this morning as yesterdays article, on Cemex not being interested in raising the bid, is seen as no more than a diversion.


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## noirua (27 March 2007)

Rinker held up quite well overnight on NYSE ( US$72.80 for the ADS, down 28 cents )  as investors recognise how the company has distanced itself from the house building sector.


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## noirua (29 March 2007)

This, my third venture into Rinker Group, is struggling a bit. Managed to get back to just under $18 yesterday on marginally better news on a Fed report, Bernanke and Co. 

Investors are looking for up to A$5 extra once approval of Cemex's bid is given. The downside is not limited and may be equal to the upside. Probably the ASX 20's most risky stock.


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## the barry (29 March 2007)

noirua said:


> This, my third venture into Rinker Group, is struggling a bit. Managed to get back to just under $18 yesterday on marginally better news on a Fed report, Bernanke and Co.
> 
> Investors are looking for up to A$5 extra once approval of Cemex's bid is given. The downside is not limited and may be equal to the upside. Probably the ASX 20's most risky stock.




Definatly could go either way. Was hoping to be out of this one by this stage. Am waiting for cemex to get clearance and will make a judgement call from there. The upside is huge, but so is the downside. A game of patience.


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## the barry (5 April 2007)

April 4 (Bloomberg) -- Cemex SA, the world's third-largest cement producer, received clearance from U.S. antitrust regulators for its $11.7 billion hostile offer for Australia's Rinker Group Ltd.

Let the fun and games begin.


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## the barry (5 April 2007)

Copy of the article for those interested (Noirua)  , 

Cemex Gets U.S. Backing for $11.7 Billion Rinker Bid (Update2) 

By Thomas Black and Miriam Steffens

April 4 (Bloomberg) -- Cemex SA, the world's third-largest cement producer, received clearance from U.S. antitrust regulators for its $11.7 billion hostile offer for Australia's Rinker Group Ltd. 

The Justice Department said Cemex agreed to sell 39 facilities, including eight Cemex plants, in Florida and Arizona to preserve price competition for large transportation projects in the two states. Sydney-based Rinker, a building materials maker, gets about 80 percent of its sales in the U.S. 

Cemex, based in Monterrey, Mexico, needed U.S. regulatory permission to move forward with the offer. It still must convince major shareholders of Rinker, who say the offer is too low. Cemex may increase its Oct. 27 bid of $13 per share, said such investors as Tony Trzcinka at Pax World Management Corp. in Portsmouth, New Hampshire. 

``There's definitely a feeling Cemex will have to raise the price for Rinker,'' Trzcinka, who helps manage $2.3 billion, including Cemex shares, said in a March 28 interview. ``If they have to come up 15 percent to 20 percent and it's still accretive to earnings, then we like the deal.'' 

Rinker would be the largest acquisition by Cemex, which paid $5.8 billion in cash and debt for the U.K.'s RMC Group Plc in March 2005. It marks Chief Executive Officer Lorenzo Zambrano's first attempt at a hostile bid since he began acquiring companies two decades ago. 

Annual Sales 

The purchase would boost Cemex's annual sales to almost $24 billion from $18.2 billion last year and widen its lead in the U.S. cement market. More than 60 percent of Rinker's sales of concrete, gravel, asphalt, concrete blocks and other building materials come from Florida, Arizona, Nevada and Texas. 

Under the Justice Department settlement, Cemex would sell 32 ready-mix concrete and concrete block plants in Florida and seven ready-mix concrete and gravel facilities in Arizona. 

The facilities would be sold to a single buyer in the areas designated by the department, which must approve any transactions. The U.S. District Court in Washington has to accept the settlement, the department said. 

``The department's action will ensure that these customers will continue to receive the benefits of competition,'' said Thomas O. Barnett, assistant attorney general for the antitrust unit, in a statement. 

`Opportunistic' Offer 

Cemex said in December its offer was `full and fair.'' 

Rinker management has called the bid ``far too low'' and ``opportunistic'' because it followed a six-month, 38 percent slide in its stock. On Rinker's Web site, large white letters on a scarlet background spell out ``reject,'' and invite investors to read why they shouldn't tender shares. 

Rinker Chairman John Morschel said on Nov. 29 that Grant Samuel & Associates Pty. valued the company at as much as A$23.04 a share, 36 percent more than Cemex's original offer of A$17. That offer, made in U.S. dollars, has since declined to A$16 because of a stronger Australian currency. 

Rinker investors such as Rob Patterson at Argo Investments Ltd. in Adelaide, Australia, are holding out for a higher bid. 

Fourth-Largest Investor 

``At this stage we wouldn't be accepting the offer,'' said Patterson, who helps manage $3.2 billion at Argo. He holds 3.2 million Rinker shares, the company's fourth-largest investor. 

Perpetual Investments, the biggest shareholder with a stake large enough to block the bid, has repeatedly said the bid was too low considering the value of Rinker's assets. 

Investors are confident about Rinker's future even with a U.S. housing slump that has struck particularly hard in Florida, its largest market, Argo's Patterson said in a March 28 interview. 

``Housing statistics are not favorable at the moment, but that's a short-term issue,'' he said. ``Rinker has a strong market position in the more growth-oriented states.'' 

`Attractive Premium' 

Rinker shares closed at A$18.07 yesterday in Sydney. The stock has dropped 7 percent since reaching a high of A$19.48 on Feb. 20 after U.S. housing data cast doubt on Rinker's forecast that demand will start to recover by May. 

Rinker's American depositary shares, which represent five shares, fell 9 cents, or 0.1 percent, to $73.69. Cemex shares trading in New York fell 59 cents, or 1.8 percent, to $32.65. 

U.S. new-home sales fell to the lowest level in almost seven years in February, the Commerce Department said on March 26, dimming prospects for a quick recovery. 

With a U.S. housing downturn and no rival suitor, Cemex may not need to raise its bid, said Gonzalo Fernandez, an analyst with Santander Central Hispano Investment in Mexico City. Rinker shareholders risk having shares decline to levels before the offer if Cemex withdraws, he said. 

``Cemex is offering an attractive premium,'' Fernandez said in an April 2 interview. ``For some investors, it will be compelling to take this premium now for a value that could take some time to reach.'' 

Analysts at Macquarie Bank Ltd. in Sydney said Vulcan Materials Co.'s $4.6 billion acquisition of competitor Florida Rock Industries Inc. in February was further proof Cemex's offer is too low. Birmingham, Alabama-based Vulcan valued Florida Rock, which sells products similar to Rinker, at 11.2 times earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation and amortization. Cemex's bid values Rinker at 9.2 times earnings before tax. 

``This will put huge pressure on the Cemex bid and suggests that the offer is far too low,'' the Macquarie analysts said in a Feb. 21 note to clients. 

Cemex is being advised by Citigroup Inc. Rinker has hired UBS AG. 

To contact the reporters on this story: Thomas Black in Monterrey at tblack@bloomberg.net and Miriam Steffens in Sydney at msteffens1@bloomberg.net


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## noirua (5 April 2007)

Big jump today to A$18.51 ( US$15.15 approx), up 44 cents at the opening.

Thanks for the information, the barry.


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## Ferret (10 April 2007)

Trading halt this morning.  Some action at last on the take over.

Ferret


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## the barry (10 April 2007)

Ferret said:


> Trading halt this morning.  Some action at last on the take over.
> 
> Ferret




Heres hoping mate. Have been sitting on this one a long time. Fingers crossed its either an increased offer from cemex or a private equity group stepping in.


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## noirua (10 April 2007)

Ferret said:


> Trading halt this morning.  Some action at last on the take over.
> 
> Ferret





Hopefully it's a counterbid by the consortium that was mentioned a while back in the States. 
If it was an increased bid by Cemex and the bid remained hostile, then Cemex would just have made an announcement.


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## Ferret (10 April 2007)

Bidding war would be nice! 

Ferret


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## the barry (10 April 2007)

Ferret said:


> Bidding war would be nice!
> 
> Ferret





Increase in bid to 19.41, board of rinker saying to accept the offer. Can't see a bidding war happening unfortunatly. Still, happy days.


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## noirua (10 April 2007)

Offer, as confirmed by Rinker Group:  First 2,000 shares to be paid A$19.50 guaranteed if requested in Australian Dollars.

http://www.rinker.com/downloads/news/Cemex announcement FINAL2.pdf


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## Sultan of Swing (10 April 2007)

Ok, excuse my ignorance....

If Cemex have offered $19-50 a share, why are they trading at $18-90ish?

Is that because the offer of $19-50 is only for the first 2000 shares?

The next question is, how long before they pay us the $19-50? 

Is there any posibility of the sp going over $19-50?

If it takes a while to get payment from Cemex, it may be better to jsut sell them at market now so that I'm cashed up. I'd hate to miss out on an opportunity elsewhere for the sake of a few undred dollars. 

(I have 1000 shares left, I sold 1000 a few months ago for $18-12.)


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## the barry (10 April 2007)

Sultan of Swing said:


> Ok, excuse my ignorance....
> 
> If Cemex have offered $19-50 a share, why are they trading at $18-90ish?
> 
> ...





I think rinker is trading at a discount due to the strentgh of the australian dollar and the offer being in american dollars. The first 2000 are gaureented at 19.50, but the remainder of your shares would be subjected to the raising australian dollar.


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## Sultan of Swing (10 April 2007)

the barry said:


> I think rinker is trading at a discount due to the strentgh of the australian dollar and the offer being in american dollars. The first 2000 are gaureented at 19.50, but the remainder of your shares would be subjected to the raising australian dollar.




And that's diluting the value of aussie RIN shares, right?


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## the barry (10 April 2007)

Sultan of Swing said:


> And that's diluting the value of aussie RIN shares, right?




Yep, that is correct. Every 1 cent the aussie dollar moves up knocks approximatly 1.25 percent off the bid.


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## Ferret (10 April 2007)

It is a chance for small investors to get 2000 shares around $18.90 and take $1200 profit (less about $40 brokerage) on the takeover.  You could do that with borrowed money and still make something unless the Cemex payment is way down the track.  

I need to see the revised scheme to see when payment would be made, but at 7.4% interest rate, you'd be in front if payment was made in a little less than 5 months.

Ferret


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## shangyien (10 April 2007)

Does anyone know what the capital gains tax implications are if you take the payment in US dollars and keep it offshore?  I am a non-resident Australian citizen and figure there may be some advantage waiting till the Aussie dollar drops before repatriating the funds.


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## Ferret (10 April 2007)

shangyien said:


> Does anyone know what the capital gains tax implications are if you take the payment in US dollars and keep it offshore?  I am a non-resident Australian citizen and figure there may be some advantage waiting till the Aussie dollar drops before repatriating the funds.




If you bought as a non resident you don't have to pay any CGT.  If you bought as a resident and sell as a non resident, you do.

Doesn't make any difference whether the payment is in US dollars and kept offshore or in Aussie dollars and paid in Australia.

Ferret


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## drmb (10 April 2007)

Ferret said:


> It is a chance for small investors to get 2000 shares around $18.90 and take $1200 profit (less about $40 brokerage) on the takeover.  You could do that with borrowed money and still make something unless the Cemex payment is way down the track.  I need to see the revised scheme to see when payment would be made, but at 7.4% interest rate, you'd be in front if payment was made in a little less than 5 months.
> 
> Ferret




NOT SO FAST!!!! I don't think it is that easy, the offer is only for shareholders who held prior to the announcement. Please do own research before you buy!! See attached pdf please


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## noirua (10 April 2007)

Maybe, the large discount in the Rinker share price is to allow for the delay in Cemex moving to a 90% holding as there will not be a payout until that point is reached.
Some may wish to wait and see if a counterbid is in the offing.


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## noirua (11 April 2007)

Rinker shares closed in the USA at ADR $78.55, up $3.25. This is against a bid price of ADR $79.25.

There are no rumours of a counterbid despite the fact that Cemex have only offered the Lowest Base $15.85 valuation put forward by Rinker Group.
For the optomistic the Cemex bid does leave the very slight possibility of a counterbid nearer $17.00.

All prices in US Dollars.


----------



## the barry (11 April 2007)

noirua said:


> Rinker shares closed in the USA at ADR $78.55, up $3.25. This is against a bid price of ADR $79.25.
> 
> There are no rumours of a counterbid despite the fact that Cemex have only offered the Lowest Base $15.85 valuation put forward by Rinker Group.
> For the optomistic the Cemex bid does leave the very slight possibility of a counterbid nearer $17.00.
> ...




Would be very hard to see a counter bid. The board of rinker have stated that they have explored all other possible options and have come up with nothing. They all now back the cemex offer in the "absence of a superior offer."


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## shangyien (11 April 2007)

Ferret said:


> If you bought as a non resident you don't have to pay any CGT.  If you bought as a resident and sell as a non resident, you do.
> 
> Doesn't make any difference whether the payment is in US dollars and kept offshore or in Aussie dollars and paid in Australia.
> 
> Ferret



Thanks.  That's a gift!  Are non-residents still entitled to franking credits on dividends?

In my case most of the shares were bought as a non-resident.


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## noirua (11 April 2007)

"Cemex gets a bargain"; or is it "El Cheapo";  http://www.smh.com.au/news/business/cemex-gets-a-bargain/2007/04/10/1175971101183.html


----------



## noirua (11 April 2007)

shangyien said:


> Thanks.  That's a gift!  Are non-residents still entitled to franking credits on dividends?
> 
> In my case most of the shares were bought as a non-resident.




Here are some tax links:  http://www.exfin.com/tax-advice-cgt.php http://www.exfin.com/tax-advice-rates.php http://www.exfin.com/overseas-refunds.php


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## noirua (11 April 2007)

Television Video Link to Cemex's bid for Rinker Group: http://www.abc.net.au/lateline/business/items/200704/s1893900.htm


----------



## noirua (11 April 2007)

Lots of enthusiastic reporting over the raised bid for Rinker group by the Mexican outfit, Cemex. I remain surprised that an American consortium could not top this bid. Worth about US$2.00 a share more and around AUS$23.50, IMHO.

Will Perpetual cave in and grab the money?


----------



## Sultan of Swing (11 April 2007)

noirua said:


> Will Perpetual cave in and grab the money?




I don't know about them but I did this afternoon.

I figured the bit extra I _MAY _get, I may as well get out and be cashed up for any opportunity that may present itself.

I'm a bit disappointed though, I liked Rinker. They're a good Aussie success story with a huge longterm upside IMO, and now they're going into foreign ownership.

If Perpetual _DO _hold out, I might regret selling them although if that happens, they may drop in price in the short term. 

Now the search begins to try and find something else with some upside.


----------



## noirua (12 April 2007)

Sultan of Swing said:


> I don't know about them but I did this afternoon.
> 
> I figured the bit extra I _MAY _get, I may as well get out and be cashed up for any opportunity that may present itself.
> 
> ...




Fair enough, as markets are at present you should have very little difficulty finding something. The last three years have been very easy and hopefully it will stay that way.  Good Luck


----------



## shinobi346 (12 April 2007)

Yea I don't like the idea of the Mexicans getting hold of this company and having another aussie company go into foreign ownership. I won't be selling this or Coles until I have to. 

I like my money but my pride goes first.


----------



## noirua (16 April 2007)

An article in "SMH" today, says that Perpetual may leave it until Rinker's Annual Results are out in May, before deciding on whether to accept Cemex's bid.


----------



## ozambersand (17 April 2007)

I also heard that anther reason Perpetual are stalling at the moment is that they want to lock in a fixed price in Oz dollars and not one affected by the exchange rate between the Aussie dollar and the US dollar. 

Currently, the more the Oz dollar rises, the lower the offer becomes in Australian terms. Hence locking in a price might be good if the Australian dollar increases further.


----------



## noirua (19 April 2007)

ozambersand said:


> I also heard that anther reason Perpetual are stalling at the moment is that they want to lock in a fixed price in Oz dollars and not one affected by the exchange rate between the Aussie dollar and the US dollar.
> 
> Currently, the more the Oz dollar rises, the lower the offer becomes in Australian terms. Hence locking in a price might be good if the Australian dollar increases further.





Hi, That does seem a more logical reason than my suggestion of a counterbid. Some Americans may also be asking for Aussie Dollars; Are their rights being infringed, maybe yet another hold up, maybe.


----------



## noirua (26 April 2007)

DON'T take any notice of this, it's just my ramblings and thoughts or is it hopes as well, all mixed in. 

On Friday we can expect the release of the Preliminary Annual Results for Rinker Group being rushed out by the present Board after recommending the offer by Cemex. 

Could there yet be a Consortium willing to pounce as the property situation stabilises in the United States. The US Dollar sank again against the Aussie and pushed down the worth of the Cemex bid, in Aussie Dollar terms.  Cemex are not willing to make a share offer and thus save many investors from paying capital gains tax.

Maybe, a bid involving both shares and cash is about to be made, supported by Banks. This would have to be around US$17 ( Aus$20.50 ).


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## noirua (27 April 2007)

Rinker's net profits for the year ending 31st March 2007 rose by 6%:  http://www.asx.com.au/asxpdf/20070427/pdf/3124chs0rnr76g.pdf


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## noirua (7 May 2007)

Cemex have announced that Perpetual have accepted their offer for their holding in Rinker Group.

Shareholders will now receive the Aus$0.25 final dividend and this will not be deducted from the offer which has been extended to 8th June. Cemex have also decided to accept shares offered providing they gain more than a 50% interest.

Unless something surprising happens this looks like the end game for the Aussie Rinker Group.


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## noirua (14 May 2007)

Cemex, in an ASX announcement this morning, have announced that they now hold a 15.76% interest in Rinker Group.


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## shinobi346 (15 May 2007)

It's reassuring to note there seems to be a lack of interest in Cemex's offer. 15% after all this time. I won't be selling my share willingly.


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## drmb (15 May 2007)

shinobi346 said:


> It's reassuring to note there seems to be a lack of interest in Cemex's offer. 15% after all this time. I won't be selling my share willingly.




I'm not interested in signing over anything this FY. I am not going to be persuaded by the little tickle offered for the first 2000 either. The US housing market seems to be picking up judging by the tape measure and wall paper paste articles on suppliers of renovation needs, seems to be on the up.


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## noirua (16 May 2007)

Cemex have announced that their interest in Rinker Group has increased further to 21.23%. The target is 50.1%.


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## noirua (17 May 2007)

Please don't take this as advice, it certainly is not.
Cemex may not obtain 90% of Rinker Group and a few investors with around 0.5% to 2% have indicated they may not accept the offer. 
Cemex appear to have accepted this possibility and the shares may well continue to be quoted, BUT what price will they trade at?
Always the possibility that the market quote may end at some stage, an additional problem if you want to sell.


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## noirua (17 May 2007)

Cemex have annouced that they now hold 24.19% of Rinker Group Stock. The target is 50.1%.

Some shareholders have asked Cemex to extend the offer for capital gains tax reasons.


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## noirua (18 May 2007)

Cemex gathering in of Rinker Group stock is starting to gallop towards the 50.1% mark as they indicate a rise to 27.47% this morning.


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## shangyien (18 May 2007)

I suppose the increase in Cemex holdings is because we are all afraid of the implications of becoming minority shareholders.  I'm about to cave in for this reason alone.


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## noirua (20 May 2007)

shangyien said:


> I suppose the increase in Cemex holdings is because we are all afraid of the implications of becoming minority shareholders.  I'm about to cave in for this reason alone.




Hi, It can be quite difficult to sell unquoted stock as you have to find a buyer yourself and most just sit there holding. 

I know there are quite a lot of shareholders in Claremont Petroleum, taken over by Beach Petroleum, where there is no stock quote. I suppose its possible to sit there for ever. 

There was a story about a lady who held on to her stock in a major company when everyone else sold. Even though the company held 99.9% they forgot about her. 30-odd years later when the company itself was taken over she came out a substantial winner. Stock was worth about 200 times more than the earlier bid.  "Can you wait that long"


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## Lert (20 May 2007)

Is anyone prepared to take a guess at what the AUD/USD exchange rate will be at settlement ?  The break even point (US$15.85 vs AU$19.50) is at an exchange rate of 0.813. If the exchange rate is greater than this its better to take the $19.50 (option 2), if less option 1 seems to be the way to go..


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## noirua (20 May 2007)

Lert said:


> Is anyone prepared to take a guess at what the AUD/USD exchange rate will be at settlement ?  The break even point (US$15.85 vs AU$19.50) is at an exchange rate of 0.813. If the exchange rate is greater than this its better to take the $19.50 (option 2), if less option 1 seems to be the way to go..




Hi, At the moment I have my form ready to post. Will watch the exchange rate as the greenback looks set for a recovery.


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## noirua (21 May 2007)

Cemex have moved on again to a holding of 30.21% of Rinker Group, according to todays ASX announcement.


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## noirua (25 May 2007)

Cemex continue to make strong headway towards their 50.1% target in announcing they hold 35.62% of Rinker this morning.


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## noirua (31 May 2007)

Cemex appear to be struggling to reach the 50.1% level for acceptances for their bid. That is surprising, but on the other hand this long struggle has given many shareholders a certain amount of resilience to these not quite good enough bids.

Cemex have once again extended their 8 month bid for Rinker Group to June 22nd 07.


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## noirua (31 May 2007)

Cemex have raised their holding in Rinker Group to 37.79%. A sign that acceptors are slowing in the last 5 days.


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## Garpal Gumnut (31 May 2007)

Hold on to your RIN

Cemex know that if they get up, they are getting it cheap. 

Sorry less than a hundred words well lets see , I suppose Shakespeare would have had to look at the word count on his sonnets for his benefactor the Duke of somewhere and James Joyce's stream of consciousness would not have been a stream if it didn't wend its way here and there just like rinker's bid which is low now that the housing market in the US will be protected as we get ready for another election cycle next year.

and cemex will get it cheap at this price.

Garpal


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## noirua (1 June 2007)

Garpal Gumnut said:


> Hold on to your RIN
> 
> Cemex know that if they get up, they are getting it cheap.
> 
> ...





I get the feeling that Cemex will manage to grab 50.1% of Rinker Group and it will be interesting to see if they get that much more. 

Todays announcement shows they have 39.42%.


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## noirua (4 June 2007)

Cemex continue to make very gradual inroads on their 50.1% target having achieved 41.27% of Rinker today.


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## noirua (5 June 2007)

Getting closer and closer to the 50.1% line are Cemex having raised their holding in Rinker to 43.15%.


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## noirua (6 June 2007)

Tantalisingly close, as Cemex almost reach their target holding of 50.1% in RIN., and issue an ASX notice of 47.13%.


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## noirua (7 June 2007)

49.51%, as Cemex home in on their target, Rinker Group. Looks all a formality now and 50.1% just a knats away.


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## bobbydazzler (7 June 2007)

they got it. will rinker be around for much longer??
http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601087&sid=asW0dmmz6nH0&refer=home


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## bobbydazzler (8 June 2007)

Cemex said it plans to take over the management of Rinker during the week that begins on June 18 and has requested current board members step down in favor of Cemex appointees.
-Bloomberg-


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## noirua (8 June 2007)

Looks like the end now for Aussie Rinker Group as Cemex notch up 52.65%. Final date for acceptance is 22nd June 2007.


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## Buddy (8 June 2007)

OK Guys, can you help me?  Am I missing something here?
I want to take my mates out to lunch next week and thinking of how to pay the bill.  

I had some RIN shares and have already accepted the Chemex $19.50 offer. So that's OK.  But..............

The offer now closes on 22 June.  RIN traded today to $18.77, so lets assume they open about the same next week.  I buy 4 lots (one of my trading accounts, my wife's and 2 children) of 2000 RIN, to a total of 8000.  I then accept their offer (for the 4 lots of 2000 shares) at $19.50.  That makes a profit of $5,840, less brokerage and some tax (no one goes broke for paying tax).  Plus of course the dividend, which Chemex say they will pay. That should leave me sufficient for a reasonable lunch and a few bottles of wine. Sounds like money for old rope to me, or is it too good to be true?

One problem is - how do I tender the shares to Chemex? And are they obliged to pay $19.50 (my reading of the offer says they are???). I would have about $150K out for about 3 weeks (payment in early July, I believe).

Does this make sense, or can I get screwed somewhere in all this?


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## shinobi346 (8 June 2007)

bobbydazzler said:


> Cemex said it plans to take over the management of Rinker during the week that begins on June 18 and has requested current board members step down in favor of Cemex appointees.
> -Bloomberg-




Good on them. They recommended the buyout and now they're gonna lose their jobs. I hope they are proud of it.


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## noirua (9 June 2007)

Buddy said:


> OK Guys, can you help me?  Am I missing something here?
> I want to take my mates out to lunch next week and thinking of how to pay the bill.
> 
> I had some RIN shares and have already accepted the Chemex $19.50 offer. So that's OK.  But..............
> ...





Hi buddy, Time was up for buying to get A$19.50 a while back. You will only get US$15.85 if you buy now and the exchange rate is terrible, equates to about A$18.80. 
Cemex have been reported as buying stock on any dip below the offer price.


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## noirua (12 June 2007)

Interesting to see that Cemex continue to struggle as they scramble to a holding of just 53.44% in Rinker, this morning.


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## WaySolid (12 June 2007)

So what's the deal with this arb of buying the shares on the market and accepting the $19.50 offer? What are the risks?


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## xxxx (12 June 2007)

From The Australian:
Cemex deal a chance for cash
COMMENT
Matthew Stevens
09jun07

WOULD you like to make a guaranteed $1288 in just 30 days for an investment of $37,700?

That represents an annualised return of 41 per cent and no, I am not some dangerous, cash-short property trust spruiker.

But I can tell you, that is exactly why 5372 retail investors yesterday spent $37,700 each to buy parcels of 2000 shares in takeover victim Rinker Corp.

To put that in context, that represents a trade every 4 or so seconds on a day when the retail market suddenly started behaving like hedge funds. They came, they saw, they arbitraged.

How does this work? Well, let's wind back a bit here. The Mexican construction supplies king Cemex has offered $16.6 billion for Rinker in what is the biggest all-cash, but least headline-grabbing, takeover in Australian corporate history.

One of the enduring problems with the bid was that, because Rinker's business is largely US-based, Cemex insisted it would pay only US dollars for its target.

But, after two or three goes at getting its offer right, the Mexicans came up with an alternative to protect small retail shareholders from the currency exposure implied in its offer. Cemex decided that for the first 2000 shares of any acceptances it would pay $19.50 a pop.

Which means what? From the moment the offer went unconditional on Thursday evening (given that Cemex crossed the 50 per cent acceptance hurdle), retail investors have the chance to get $19.50 for 2000 shares in Rinker.

But the Cemex offer of $US15.85 is what will be paid on the balance of any acceptances, which is about $18.80 at the current exchange rate. Which is why the on-market price of Rinker is going to remain at the $18.77 it closed at last night.

So, if on Tuesday you want to go out and buy 2000 Rinker shares at $18.77 or so, you will do so knowing that you can sell them into the offer at $19.50. Which is money for old tacos as far as I am concerned.

Oh, and yes, that is pre-capital gains tax, but remember Cemex doesn't settle for 30 days after the offer closes which is, at the moment, on June 24. And that means settlement happens in the new financial year which means any tax problems are delayed until 2008.

The other thing to remember here is that, given Cemex hits its closure dates, you have only seven days to get in and then accept because the $19.50 option ends three days before the 24 June deadline.

Which means, once you deduct say $100 for brokerage (and weren't they having a lovely time yesterday) and discount your return by say 7 per cent for the cost of money over 30 days, you end up with your guaranteed pre-tax gain of $1288.

And the best thing is, no one gets hurt. The retail investor is very happy as are institutions who want to sell the shares now at the offer price rather than wait that extra 30 days at least. Meanwhile, the brokers have the prospect of maybe 40 per cent of Rinker being chopped up and sold in tiny parcels at $100 a trade.

And Cemex, well, it will end up paying $100 million more for Rinker. But once your total bill crossed the $16 billion threshold, what's $100 million between friends?


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## noirua (13 June 2007)

I'm afraid, as I posted before, that if you buy 2,000 shares in Rinker Group you will NOT get A$19.50 as share.  Why? The time is up on that one.

See last paragraph on page 1:  http://www.rinker.com/downloads/news/Cemex announcement FINAL2.pdf


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## Mike3141 (13 June 2007)

Given the information on the Rinker website and the article in the Weekend Australian by Matthew Stevens.  I would like to know why he  suggested that small parcels of RIN bought by 24 June can sell out at A$19.50?


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## noirua (14 June 2007)

Mike3141 said:


> Given the information on the Rinker website and the article in the Weekend Australian by Matthew Stevens.  I would like to know why he  suggested that small parcels of RIN bought by 24 June can sell out at A$19.50?




Well, it seems that "fnarena" also think there is money to be made from this $19.50 offer, afterall:  http://www.fnarena.com/index2.cfm?type=dsp_newsitem&n=276C65D7-17A4-1130-F5F45E1CDB395720


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## Ferret (16 June 2007)

Wondering if anyone is planning on holding on after the bid closes.  

My feeling is that Cemex aren't going to get to the 90% level for compulsory aquisition, even though I'm sure they will extend the offer a few more times yet.  So maybe they will come in with a mop up bid at the end of the year or whenever the law allows.

My wifr has a holding that she has accepted the offer for, but I have a holding in super that was bought in August and which I don't want to sell until I've held for 12 months.  Guess I'll sit it out and see what happens.

Ferret


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## jkool (16 June 2007)

noirua said:


> I'm afraid, as I posted before, that if you buy 2,000 shares in Rinker Group you will NOT get A$19.50 as share.  Why? The time is up on that one.
> 
> See last paragraph on page 1:  http://www.rinker.com/downloads/news/Cemex announcement FINAL2.pdf




Noirua: Yes that was initial agreement but changed sometimes around 27 April as per Rinker's First Supp Target's Statement. 

Needless to say that all situation is fairly confusing as Cemex is not all that keen to pay more than necessary so won't stress the 2000 shares thing out too much. 

Look at my Cemex’s Rinker takeover: Easy pickings or a trap? article if interested but rely on your OWN findings better


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## noirua (17 June 2007)

The Cemex saga continues as Aussies hold back on accepting the offer for Capital Gains Tax reasons.
Http://www.theaustralian.news.com.au/story/0,20867,21901088-16941,00.html


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## noirua (18 June 2007)

Cemex have moved on to hold 59.93% of Rinker shares this morning. It looks as if they will finish the week close to 80%. The long game played by Cemex is nearly all over.


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## noirua (19 June 2007)

Moving on once more, at a slightly slower pace, as Cemex manage a few more points in raising their holding in Rinker Group to 62.05%.


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## Lert (22 June 2007)

I see Cemex are now up to 75% of RIN... My RIN shares have disappeared from my portfolio screen so I presume the money will be in my account soon.. Any idea when the payments will be made ??


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## noirua (3 July 2007)

...and still Cemex plough on. It's not far short of a year since the first bid was made. Up to 85.53% of Rinker Group as the long grind continues - YYYYYYaaaaaaaaaaaaaawwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwnnnnnnnnnnnnnnnnnnnn


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## noirua (4 July 2007)

Still the final throws of Rinker Group go on, and on, and on, and on...

Close to the 90% level, in the last announcement, at 86.49%.


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## noirua (6 July 2007)

Moving at a snails pace now as Cemex struggle to get over the 90% line. At times it seems as if that winning post is moving further away. Holding is now 87.84% in Rinker.


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## noirua (10 July 2007)

...and still the race continues, well, at least until 16th July, as Cemex close in on the 90% mark at 89.76% of Rinker Group.


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## suffragette (10 July 2007)

Hi everyone...
I'm wondering whether anyone who has accepted the offer has received payment yet?

cheers!


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## ozambersand (10 July 2007)

A form came from Computershare saying the off-market transfer took place, so I assume the money is now in the bank! 

Word just got posted that they are above 90% and the compulsory acquisition has begun and it seems it is happening at the same rate the latest offer was, which is good news for all those trading on the market today at $18.60! (As long as your parcel is small enough).

They give you a month after getting the notice to act on it. If you don't reply, the transaction will occur at US$15.65 per share given to you in US dollars.


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## Lert (10 July 2007)

Dont assume that just because you have the Chess statement  that the money is in your bank.. I've had the chess statement for a week or so but nothing had showed up in my account. I rang the lady at Cemex who told me that it was all set out in the scheme documentation (I think i've had three lots, which I have binned after sending in my acceptance).. seems like you get paid after a month of taking up the offer.. This made it a bit difficult when doing the end of year for my SMSF.. ie. nothing about Rinker on my June 30th broker statement and nothing in the bank 

The best bit is since the payment will be made in July, no CGT will apply


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## suffragette (11 July 2007)

i had a chess statement as well, i think i got it at least a couple of weeks ago. and rinker has dissapeared from my portfolio awhile ago. i thought we might get the payment after the 16th of july, when the takeover finishes. i cant remember the exact date that i accepted the offer. 

so it seems that no one has received payment as yet...


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## noirua (12 July 2007)

The A$19.50 a share is in my investments account and I'm told that overseas shareholders were sent cheques last Friday ( designated in US Dollars or Aussie Dollars depending on what they indicated on their form of acceptance), dated 6th July 2007 ( Where they reside in domains outside Australia, New Zealand and United States). Or transfers were made to nominees in Australia, New Zealand and United States, on 6th July 2007.


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## noirua (13 July 2007)

Rinker Group leaves the ASX next Wednesday, 18th July under rule 17.4. As Cemex mop up the final holdings and announce a 92.85% acceptance of their offer.
So leaves a relatively medium sized company, at the time it was split from CSR Limited, and Rinker Group leave having attained ASX 20 status.


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## shinobi346 (26 July 2007)

I'm still waiting for my money here from the forced sale. Anyone else? 



12345onceicaughtafishalive


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## MAPfan (26 July 2007)

You cant but a 50 cent bread roll without cash but you can walk away with $x billion icon company and no cash in sight..so how hows does the Aust stock market work?  Finding out its been screwed over by the mexicans maybe?  Still waiting for $ yet they have the company


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## RM8 (27 July 2007)

shinobi346 said:


> I'm still waiting for my money here from the forced sale. Anyone else?
> 
> 
> 
> 12345onceicaughtafishalive





Apparently they pay up 30 days after they accept your shares.

I've got at least another week or more yet which is a pain in the @=se. Could have put the doe to good use today.


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## golfmos123 (27 July 2007)

Got my second cheque today.  Both have arrived just inside the 30d mark from my acceptance of the offer.

Anyone else take advantage of the 19.50 loophole??  Could have picked up shares around the low 18s (taking your holding to only 2000 max) and then signed the form the next day to take 19.50 cash for them with no brokerage.  Didn't allow you to make a packet but hey, free money is free money!!!


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## niknah (27 July 2007)

I purchased in 2 lots(one lot I had held for a year, the 2nd I brought when I saw all those people purchasing 2k shares when it was about 80% done). Received the first cheque at the beginning of this week. The cheque was fine, it's all in the bank.
I called them up and they said the 2nd cheque was coming next Friday.

I'm so glad with all this sub-prime + USD going badly, Cemex might have gotten a better deal if they waited till now to make a bid.  I was in Florida earlier this year, even though the property market had gone bad already then, there were still lots of construction cranes on the sky line for apartments that haven't gone on the market yet.


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## shinobi346 (27 July 2007)

MAPfan said:


> You cant but a 50 cent bread roll without cash but you can walk away with $x billion icon company and no cash in sight..so how hows does the Aust stock market work?  Finding out its been screwed over by the mexicans maybe?  Still waiting for $ yet they have the company




Looking at it that way it does irritate me a little but when I think of the falling USD and how Cemex will be paying more for the 19.50 to give me, it gives me some sort of comfort.

Yes, it's good to see how badly the US is doing. 

With interest rates tipped to go up soon, the AUD is expected to go up along with it.


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## noirua (17 August 2007)

Just a thank you to Cemex for buying our Rinker stock at A$19.50 a share and allowing us to keep our dividend of 25 cents. Rinker stood at A$12.50 before Cemex made their first bid and thoughts are that they would now be about A$10.

I've invested all the money in US Bonds and not only have they risen the US Dollar has as well. So it's a final thank you to Mexico.

Daft as a brush Cemex, you paid well over the odds.


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## niknah (17 August 2007)

Thanks from me too!

I'm sure they'll get their returns in like 5-10 yrs.

I transfered some of my moneys over to the US when the currency was at 
89c but I brought stupid things like Citibank.


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## Fung (20 August 2007)

Just wondering what happens if you didn't respond to their offer? You still get the cheque from them but only $18.20 right? I've sent them back the offering letter in mid July but i still haven't received any cheques yet


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## noirua (31 August 2007)

Fung said:


> Just wondering what happens if you didn't respond to their offer? You still get the cheque from them but only $18.20 right? I've sent them back the offering letter in mid July but i still haven't received any cheques yet




Hi Fung, If you are having any problems go to Rinker's Aussie website at: http://www.rinker.com.au

There is a link to click-on there - all the best

Or go to: http://www.cemex.com


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## Ferret (31 August 2007)

I'm also waiting for the money from the compulsory acquisition.  

I held in super under national nominees (so wasn't going to get the $19.50) and I'd bought on 7/8/06 so wanted to hold out to get the 1 year CGT reduction.

Anyone received money from compulsory acquisition yet?

Ferret


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## noirua (31 August 2007)

Ferret said:


> I'm also waiting for the money from the compulsory acquisition.
> 
> I held in super under national nominees (so wasn't going to get the $19.50) and I'd bought on 7/8/06 so wanted to hold out to get the 1 year CGT reduction.
> 
> ...




Cemex made an application to the US Securities and Exchange Commission regarding compulsory purchase of outstanding Rinker Group shares on 8th August 2007.


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## Fung (6 September 2007)

Received another letter and should be able to get the money in the next few weeks.... I hope.... haha


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## Ferret (14 August 2008)

To all those who held Rinker shares, I think Cemex did us a big favour.  I hope they are choking on it!

Ferret


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## noirua (15 August 2008)

Ferret said:


> To all those who held Rinker shares, I think Cemex did us a big favour.  I hope they are choking on it! Ferret



Yep! They surely are Ferret and under a load of bricks and concrete.
Seriously though folks!  I should have sold at over $20 and they plunged to $12, and along came Cemex and I was paid dividends and dollars that came close to $20.
"May your large sombreros protect you from the sun whilst you lie held down under the bricks - noi


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