# Australian Dollar ….  (a no-brainer trade set up?)



## MARKETWAVES (29 May 2005)

Australian Dollar ….  (a  no-brainer trade set up ? )
   Last  week  ….W hile  the  whole world  of  traders  out  there  are  watching  the  stock-market  and  wondering  Which  Way  is  Up …

 Just  look  at what  the  Australian dollar  has been  up  to  …  It  basically has  been  quietly  forming   a  base ,,,  while  m ost  eyes  are  on  Stocks  ,,,,  I’ve  seen   this  movie  before  and  and  I  didn’t like it last  time  around … This  one  looks  like  its  going  to  sneak  up  on  a lot  of  people ….

 These  chart   formations  are a base  on  Daily  charts ,,  I   didn’t  even  look  at  the  longer  term weekly charts  ,,  in order  to  see  what’s  really  going  on  yet  /….  Because  this  one  is  in  some  kind  of  channel  and  it has  not  1  but  2  overhead gaps …. This  is  an  instance  where  the  futures  traders  who ‘s  eye  is  well  trained  and  have  lost enough  money  in   the  markets,  such  as  myself ,  can  really  sit  back  and  see the  importance of  these overhead gaps  … 

Clearly, you  can  clearly  see  that  if  you  trade  FOREX ,

  These  gaps are  not  apparent  to  the  intraday  traders  out  there ….  They are  blind  to  this  fact …..


  Talk  about  risk  to  reward ,   look  at  the 2nd  chart  posted  here…  this  market the  Australian Dollar ,  has   multiple  support ….
  And  its happened  quite  a  few  times ….  The  way   I  am  thinking  about  this  one  is ,,,  What  is  the  probability of  this  going  back  up  to  the .7800  area ? Well  ,  I  really  don’t  care  to  calculate  it,,,  because  placing  a  stop  just  under .7500  looks  like  it  could  hold  up   moving  forward …  


  Next ,  week  any  pull  back  in  the  Us  Dollar should  cause a  rally  here  ( futures  contracts ) ….  Lets  watch  and  see ,,,,



   Any  comments ? ………….



TRADE AT YOUR OWN RISK… The purpose of these charts is to point out significant highs and lows based on Fibonacci Retracement lines and Elliot Waves which are highly subjective . This information is for educational purposes and should not be considered trading recommendations . All trading decisions are your own sole responsibility …


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## MARKETWAVES (29 May 2005)

*Re: Australian Dollar ….  (a  no-brainer trade set up ? )*

Australian Dollar ….  pg-2


TRADE AT YOUR OWN RISK… The purpose of these charts is to point out significant highs and lows based on Fibonacci Retracement lines and Elliot Waves which are highly subjective . This information is for educational purposes and should not be considered trading recommendations . All trading decisions are your own sole responsibility …


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## Smurf1976 (29 May 2005)

*Re: Australian Dollar ….  (a  no-brainer trade set up ? )*

As a short term trade you could well be right. But look at a long term chart and the AUD is right at the top of the range and looks to have formed a double top over a rather long period. Look at a long term chart of the USD Index and it has bounced off the 80 level which marks the historic low point from which it has always bounced.

In other words, I think the AUD is headed sharply LOWER long term (months, years) but you could well be right about a short term rally.

My observations about the long term are based on both fundamentals and to a lesser extent the charts.


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## DTM (29 May 2005)

*Re: Australian Dollar ….  (a  no-brainer trade set up ? )*

Looking at the AUD and USD on daily charts, I'd be more inclined to say that the USD is going to shoot up short term, say next few weeks.  

It looks like the USD is finding support around $1.31 AUD mark and pressure is building for it to go up.    

Nice charts again Market.


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## MARKETWAVES (17 June 2005)

*Re: Australian Dollar ….  (a  no-brainer trade set up ? )*

* Australian  Dollar    an  update ...*



What  a  formation  we  have  developing  here ...  

Have'nt  seen  one  like  this  in some  time  .....  These  are  great  times ..

  The  posture is extremely bullish .....

     What  we  have  here  appears  to  be an Ascending  Triangle  which  is  a classic  chart formation ..


  THIS  IS A  TYPICAL  SET  UP   , that  I am  trying  to  illustrate  the  importance  of  *Buying  before  a  Break-out * .....  

Any pull  back  in  the  Us  Dollar  which  is  over bought  right  now  should  cause  this one to go  North ...

  WHAT  IS  ALSO  UNIQUE  IS  the  time  analysis on  this  chart  formation  starting  from  a  significant  high ,,,  This  why  I  am  always  urging  people  to  read  about  Fibonacci ......


 If  you  really  appreciate  thes  3  charts ,,  bear in  mind  that  I  could  not  see  this  without  a good  understanding  of  Fibobnacci Retracements   levels   ....

*Read all  about Fibonacci  ,,,,  Research  Fibonacci Retracements,,,,,,*


TRADE AT YOUR OWN RISK… The purpose of these charts is to point out significant highs and lows based on Fibonacci Retracement lines and Elliott Waves which are highly subjective . This information is for educational purposes and should not be considered trading recommendations . All trading decisions are your own sole responsibility …


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## tech/a (17 June 2005)

*Re: Australian Dollar ….  (a  no-brainer trade set up ? )*

Timing is everything with retracement trades.
Currently the gap to stop (Base of the last lowest low) is far to wide in my veiw.
A buy at or within a few ticks if support would have been a great time to buy.

Are you suggesting buying NOW?
If so what is your stop point if wrong---Fibonacci is often far less than an exact science!!---
If not where would and when would you buy?

*Can you save your charts as Gif's as they take for ever to load.*


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## RichKid (17 June 2005)

*Re: Australian Dollar ….  (a  no-brainer trade set up ? )*

If that last chart shows a small HS pattern and it is valid then we'll be looking at a return to the uptrend line you've drawn (NL of larger H&S pattern), a bounce up off that line would be a far safer trade imo but then we may miss out just waiting for it if there is a breakout from around where it is now. USD appears to have a bit more steam in it so maybe the Aussie will fall more short term.


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## MARKETWAVES (17 June 2005)

*Re: Australian Dollar ….  (a  no-brainer trade set up ? )*

*FIBONACCI  IS  NOT  AN  EXACT  SCIENCE  I  AGREE   .......  *   but  no  other  type of  anlaysis  out  there is either  ....  if  the  stop  gets  taken out  ...  this  is   where Risk  to  Reward  comes in ,,,,


Please  don't  confuse Risk  to  Reward  with  Money  Management....  They  are  two  diffrent  things  , respectfully .



 A  small  stop  on a set up  like this  is  OK  ,,  if  it  gets taken  out ... IT  IS  CONROLLED   RISK .


   EXAMPLE ............

  1F YOU  TAKE  10  TRADES  THAT  ARE  SAY  4-1  RETURN OR  HIGHER AND  YOU  ARE   WRONG  HALF THE TIME  ... YOU  WILL  STILL   BE  AHEAD ....


  What I have  learned  over  the  last 2  and a halph Yrs  of  observing the  markets  ... is  that the *Pros* concentrate  on  Risk  to  Reward .....   The   *Amature *  is  concerned   about  being  right  all  the  time . 


  This  is  what  seperates  the  Winning  Attitude  from  the  Losing  Attitude ...


  I am  by  no  means  calling any one  names  here,

So Please  don't   take  offense ,,,  I am  just  attempting  to  communicate a point ..


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## RichKid (17 June 2005)

*Re: Australian Dollar ….  (a  no-brainer trade set up ? )*



			
				MARKETWAVES said:
			
		

> *FIBONACCI  IS  NOT  AN  EXACT  SCIENCE  I  AGREE   .......  *   but  no  other  type of  anlysis  out  there is either  ....  if  the  stop  gets  taken out  ...  this  is   where Risk  to  Reward  comes in ,,,,
> 
> 
> Please  don't  confuse Risk  to  Reward  with  Money  Management....  They  are  two  diffrent  things  , respectfully .
> ...




MW,
I agree wholeheartedly, you have made an excellent point, not that it hasn't been repeated before here but it's worth stating it again and again. So even if this is a stuff up (or a success) the question I suppose is what is your downside risk (ie the stop) and your upside target (ie the estimated profit) and the obvious one, where would or did you buy? That'll put the RRR into hard numbers.


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## tech/a (17 June 2005)

*Re: Australian Dollar ….  (a  no-brainer trade set up ? )*

MW.

Completely agree.Re analysis.

*Please also understand that you are not alone here with your understanding of Fib or Money Management or Risk Control.*

As Rich says-----hypothetical case senarios have no relevence to actual trading unless we can see the implementation (In Realtime)---this is the acid test to any trading technique.10-20 trades in realtime will give an idea of actual R/R.So rather than just showing analysis can you show implementation,so that its progress can be monitored---win lose or draw!!?


You've still not answered my questions.
Your explaination of technique is excellent--your explaination of examples of trade implementation are so far non existant.

I and Im sure others are interested in where youd take a trade (Respective of analysis) where youd set the stop and when youd call the trade (Not in hindsite--but in realtime).
There is no point in saying your right now after the fact as we cant put a retrospective trade on!!

So 

*Are you suggesting buying NOW?
If so what is your stop point if wrong---Fibonacci is often far less than an exact science!!---
If not where would and when would you buy?*


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## Battman64 (17 June 2005)

*Re: Australian Dollar ….  (a  no-brainer trade set up ? )*

Risk Reward Ratio (RRR) &
Percentage successs rate of trading plan.
These two require great consideration.
In my opinion.


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## RichKid (18 June 2005)

*Re: Australian Dollar ….  (a  no-brainer trade set up ? )*

Here are charts from www.futuresource.com. It has intraday and longterm charts for most futures contracts (maybe all but I don't know em all). Thanks to MW for alerting me to the AUD action today. Over to you now...

(These charts are hourly and 15min as of the time of this post)


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## tech/a (18 June 2005)

*Re: Australian Dollar ….  (a  no-brainer trade set up ? )*

*Risk Reward Ratio (RRR) &
Percentage successs rate of trading plan.
These two require great consideration.*

*Neither have any practical relevance without 2 critical "Knowns" *

To hypothisise an acceptable R/R  and rate of success without KNOWING these 2 critical elements---render a well placed stop and a 4+ return to risk on a 70% rate of success---little more than a gamble.


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## RichKid (18 June 2005)

*Re: Australian Dollar ….  (a  no-brainer trade set up ? )*



			
				tech/a said:
			
		

> *Risk Reward Ratio (RRR) &
> Percentage successs rate of trading plan.
> These two require great consideration.*
> 
> ...




If this thread becomes a discussion on money mgmt generally we may have to start a new thread. If not would be good to relate it directly to the market being traded. MW/Tech either of you can suggest entry, exit, stop, position size figures etc for a possible trade if you like. That appears to be the contentious issue here in relation to this specific market. Heck, even inexperienced RichKid may make a suggestion re entry, stop, exit etc for this trade but general mm issues are separate. Maybe one of Tech's old money mgmt threads may be a better place to debate the issue. Just trying to keep this on topic.


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## MARKETWAVES (19 June 2005)

*Re: Australian Dollar ….  (a  no-brainer trade set up ? )*

This  is  an  update .... 


Tech A  please  ,  obseve   ....   

........to  this  post  earlier    last   month...



*  This  is  also  being  posted  to  show that   there  is  no  hind sight  analysis  ivolved .  *  



   1st  chart .......  (is   Before )  (  the  set  up )


    2nd  chart  ............  ( is  whats  happened  since  it  was  posted )
                                       ( an  update  )


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## MARKETWAVES (19 June 2005)

*Re: Australian Dollar ….  (a  no-brainer trade set up ? )*

TECH  A  ...  THIS  IS 3  OF  MY  RECENT  POSTS  ....

 * NONE  OF  THEM  WERE  PLACED  AFTER  THE  FACT , *    


*They  were all  forward  looking ... *   I  understand  the  importance  of what  you  are  saying  ,  but  please  *STOP  *  putting me  in  that  boat  of  people that  are  all  hind  sight ....


      I am  being  asked  here  to  give  exact  buy  sell  hold  and  stop  signals  for  trade  set-ups  yet  ..  I  don’t  see  any  one  else  doing  it  ...  All I  am  seeing  is  disclaimers  on  posts  all  over  the  place ,,
    I  wonder  why ? ,,,,,,

  No  one  wants  to  be  responsible  for  causing  someone  else  the  pain  of  a  loss...  it   seems  ......


  Recently  I  have  joined   this  forum  last  month  to  be  exact  ,  and I have  searched  through  your  posts  and  the  posts  of  Rich  Kid , looking  at  your posts  as  you  do  mine ,  but  where  are  the  entries  and  stops?  ,,  how  do  you  manage?  ,,  These  are  the same questions  being  asked  of  me ...


THIS  IS  THE  EXACTLY  REASON  TECH - A  WHY  I  ASKED   you  last  month  if  I  can  send  you  trades ,,  and  we  can  keep  them  in  a  spread  sheet  *for  all  to  see  ..*...  Do you  remember  that  ?  Well  , you  bowed  out  gracefully out  of  that  one .  You  didn’t  want me  to  send  the  trades  so that  there would  be  no  question  in  your  mind  about  *This HINDSIGHT  BUSINESS  .....* *


It  just  doesn’t  seem  right ........... *  


  Bottom  line  , I   will  do  some  posts  with  entry  signals  and  objectives ,    but  please let’s  see  some  of  yours .,  and   I am  also  keeping  a  keen  eye  on  Rich  Kids  posts  also,   of  whom  I  believe  should  do some  posts   explaining  his  buy  and  stop  areas  on  a  chart  also  ....


*I'm  sure  the  whole  forum  would  appreciate  this don’t  you  think ?*


*Below  are  my    3  posts   that  were  posted  around  the  25th  of  last  month,  and  how  they  are  doing    these  days  …*   

_________________________________________________________________


     GOLD    CAN  THIS  HOLD ?......  

https://www.aussiestockforums.com/forums/showthread.php?t=1357


_________________________________________________________________

   GOT  GAS 

https://www.aussiestockforums.com/forums/showthread.php?t=1391


_________________________________________________________________


   AUSTRALIAN  DOLLAR ...  DAILY  VIEWS

https://www.aussiestockforums.com/forums/showthread.php?t=1414


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## tech/a (19 June 2005)

*Re: Australian Dollar ….  (a  no-brainer trade set up ? )*

Waves.

All three are questions and hypothesis.
Not one says at the date of posting a clear trade suggestion.
Gas says you expect bottoming so as an example at that time is it a short trade to support OR a wait and see for a long if the support holds.

I want to see how you USE your analysis not just the theory behind it!

As for my posts on trades---I have a technical analysis thread on current trades just re started as Im now in Aust for a while the analysis is similar yet very different to yours---a good thing.
When Reefcap goes back on line you can follow 3 yrs of them there with a running portfolio.

*THIS IS THE EXACTLY REASON TECH - A WHY I ASKED you last month if I can send you trades ,, and we can keep them in a spread sheet for all to see ..... Do you remember that ? Well , you bowed out gracefully out of that one . You didn’t want me to send the trades so that there would be no question in your mind about This HINDSIGHT BUSINESS ..... * 

Waves dont know what this is about(Not wanting you to send trades--please do!) I've been Overseas for 3 weeks happy for you to do this infact be very glad if you do.Would be fantastic to follow.

Thanks Waves.


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## MARKETWAVES (19 June 2005)

*Re: Australian Dollar ….  (a  no-brainer trade set up ? )*

v  #7       30th-May-2005, 11:15 PM  
 tech/a  
Senior Member   Join Date: Oct 2004
Location: Adelaide.
Posts: 963  

 Re: My trading style ( MARKET WAVES ) 

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

 Tech  a  
here's a copy  of your  post  where you  said  flat  out  No  to a spreadsheet

  You  gracefully  bowed  out ......  of  this 

Go  back  and  read this post  in  its  entirety
  you  will  see what  i  am  refering   to .....

https://www.aussiestockforums.com/forums/showthread.php?t=1432

Dont know that we need a spread sheet---just a chart showing the entry and your thoughts for the future of the trade---a chart if stopped and a chart when you exit.That way we can follow and comment.

As of Friday Im O/S for a fortnight so my comments and input will be zilch over that time but lookforward to haveing a look on my return.

tech/a 
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## DTM (19 June 2005)

*Re: Australian Dollar ….  (a  no-brainer trade set up ? )*

After dropping, the AUD looks stronger.  It has broken out of its channel and could be on its way up again.  Fundamentals look good too with the higher commodities prices and fall in Trade deficit so it could be on its way up.  Conversely, oil and gold is up which is never a good thing for the USD.

It looks like it will retest the former resistance line and I think it looks like it will stay up.


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## tech/a (19 June 2005)

*Re: Australian Dollar ….  (a  no-brainer trade set up ? )*

Waves.

Whats the big deal?

I said I didnt think it was necessary.If you posted the trades as they would be traded as you saw it.
This hasnt been done.Just ideas from your analysis of what COULD occur.

If you wish to call trades so that we can see the analysis in action that would be great.
If you wish to run a spreadsheet on all trades then that would be helpful and easier to follow I guess,so fantastic.

As it is I cant tell wether your taking a trade or waiting for a setup to pan out---in which case Id like to see when you would take a trade---out of interest for your charting.

Is it that hard or am I being un reasonable?


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## RichKid (19 June 2005)

*Re: Australian Dollar ….  (a  no-brainer trade set up ? )*



			
				tech/a said:
			
		

> Waves.
> 
> As it is I cant tell wether your taking a trade or waiting for a setup to pan out---in which case Id like to see when you would take a trade---out of interest for your charting.
> 
> Is it that hard or am I being un reasonable?




I think this is the issue here, we seem to be at cross purposes. This is not to hassle you MW, just to get an idea of how you apply your work in real life, as TechA says we're not sure if you took the trade and if so where and how etc. The numbers will tell it.

Well I've posted very specific info on entry/exits/stops in some trades, but not all. That is because, as I freely admit, I'm a newbie and I'm still learning, so I don't have a solid theory to promote. Also I don't trade that often and I don't have time to post at every step. One trade where I was very specific is the Destra thread: https://www.aussiestockforums.com/forums/showthread.php?t=578&highlight=destra  Also some others but I don't think there was as much detail. My most recent trade is my PRK trade https://www.aussiestockforums.com/forums/showthread.php?t=1364&page=3, I'll post my entry (actual figures from before I placed my order). Hope that gives an idea of what is expected. TechA has also traded a few recently with clear stops, entry signals etc stated, see here: https://www.aussiestockforums.com/forums/showthread.php?t=1385&page=1&pp=10.

So maybe we can now get back to this promising pattern in the Aussie dollar...maybe you'd like to provide links to some of your earlier threads techA if you'd like to illustrate some points on risk and mm which you think have not been covered by MW and we can debate it in that thread??

Also, these technical debates can get heated but remember the object is to analyse each others methods and views rather than to just disagree so let's keep the debate robust rather than rowdy. So far so good.


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## Smurf1976 (19 June 2005)

*Re: Australian Dollar ….  (a  no-brainer trade set up ? )*

A daily chart of AUD/USD looks rather symmetrical to me. Mid point 2nd of March with the recent low on 1st June corresponding with the one on 10th December 2004. 

I have no idea how valid this thinking is but if you look at the chart since late last year then I think you'll see what I mean.

If we keep following the same path then two possible scenarios seem to exist. One is that the top for this move is .7945 based on reaching the same price. If you look at it from a time perspective then we are at or near the top. Either way down hard after the top.

Can anyone tell me if this has any validity or not.


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## Smurf1976 (19 June 2005)

*Re: Australian Dollar ….  (a  no-brainer trade set up ? )*

Measured against the USD, the AUD and NZD move broadly inline with each other. 

Also it's worth noting that both have been on the receiving end of the same borrow USD at 1% interest / buy AUD/NZD at much higher interest carry trade. With rising US interest rates that should be coming to an end which removes a significant support for the AUD/NZD in my opinion.

If you look at the NZD chart this recent move up looks far less impressive.


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## RichKid (19 June 2005)

*Re: Australian Dollar ….  (a  no-brainer trade set up ? )*



			
				MARKETWAVES said:
			
		

> What I have  learned  over  the  last 2  and a halph Yrs  of  observing the  markets  ... is  that the *Pros* concentrate  on  Risk  to  Reward .....   The   *Amature *  is  concerned   about  being  right  all  the  time .
> 
> This  is  what  seperates  the  Winning  Attitude  from  the  Losing  Attitude ...




MW,
I like that point, has been mentioned before but I sometimes find that I just feel hamstrung wanting all trades to be perfect winners, so the more you mention it the better. Tech has been sharing similar statements in other threads and hopefully we'll get more people like you folks raising these important points.


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## RichKid (20 June 2005)

*Re: Australian Dollar ….  (a  no-brainer trade set up ? )*

Okay back to the charting. This is an hourly chart of the AUD/USD as of a few minutes ago. Stochastic suggests it is slowing down and preparing for the next surge up. Or am I reading it wrong? MW, any views? Still some way to climb to test resistance.


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## Smurf1976 (23 June 2005)

*Re: Australian Dollar ….  (a  no-brainer trade set up ? )*

Does anyone have any updated views now that the AUD/USD seems to have run into some resistance?

My own thinking from a more fundamental / sentiment perspective is up in the short term, down in the medium/long term. I am presently out of this market though.


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## excalibur (25 June 2005)

*Re: Australian Dollar ….  (a  no-brainer trade set up ? )*



			
				Smurf1976 said:
			
		

> Does anyone have any updated views now that the AUD/USD seems to have run into some resistance?
> 
> My own thinking from a more fundamental / sentiment perspective is up in the short term, down in the medium/long term. I am presently out of this market though.



According to RSI and ROC she is going in for a dive.

https://www.aussiestockforums.com/forums/attachment.php?attachmentid=&stc=1
AUD2.GIF


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## MARKETWAVES (3 July 2005)

*Re: Australian Dollar ….  (a  no-brainer trade set up ? )*

Here's  an  update  ...  3  chart updated  the  Australian Dollar  appears  to  be  selling  off  into this  major  support  area  ..  (  futures  contracts ) ., longer  term  ...

  looking  for  some  kind  ogf  weeknes  in  the   us  dollar going  forward to  lend possible  support . can   the  us  dollar dollar  rally  get  stronger and push  the  australian  Dollar  below  this  long  term  support  line ? .. Well ,  lets  wait  for  thnae   next  feds  meetingv  and see  what  the   they  do  ...


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## RichKid (4 July 2005)

*Re: Australian Dollar ….  (a  no-brainer trade set up ? )*



			
				MARKETWAVES said:
			
		

> Here's  an  update  ...  3  chart updated  the  Australian Dollar  appears  to  be  selling  off  into this  major  support  area  ..  (  futures  contracts ) ., longer  term  ...
> 
> looking  for  some  kind  ogf  weeknes  in  the   us  dollar going  forward to  lend possible  support . can   the  us  dollar dollar  rally  get  stronger and push  the  australian  Dollar  below  this  long  term  support  line ? .. Well ,  lets  wait  for  thnae   next  feds  meetingv  and see  what  the   they  do  ...




MW, thanks for the great charts again, I've been watching this one closely of late. I may actually trade it if I see a trigger, just stalking atm. Some measured move analysis might provide some interesting downside targets to watch in combination with the support levels.

Is anyone here thinking of entering or are you in a position already? I'll post my trades here if I enter, anyone else like to do the same? No obligation, just good to discuss it imo- win or lose it doesn't matter. Nice to see clear trend lines, another good thing about forex.


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## RichKid (12 July 2005)

*Re: Australian Dollar ….  (a  no-brainer trade set up ? )*

Looks like it bounced off support again, if it doesn't climb higher on the hourly chart it may pullback a bit first, watching the stochastic closely. How are others viewing this?


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## MARKETWAVES (17 July 2005)

*Re: Australian Dollar ….  (a  no-brainer trade set up ? )*

Here's  the  update  for  the  end  of  this  week ,,,

     FORWARD  LOOKING ...........


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## MARKETWAVES (17 July 2005)

*Re: Australian Dollar ….  (a  no-brainer trade set up ? )*

MARKET  WAVES  ...
  ON  THE  *AUSSIE  DOLLAR*


  THE  AUSTRALIAN  DOLLAR LONGER  TERM  LOOKS LIKE   A MASSIVE   ASCENDING  TRIANGLE  HAS  FORMED  ... ( WEEKLY  CHARTS )

  What  makes  this  one  stand  out  is  that  there  appears  to  be  an  upside-down head  and  shoulder  pattern    inside  of  this  massive  ascensding triangle  formation.... we will  need  a  close  below  .7200  to  negate  this  formation  ,,,  Basically, I  don't  believe  that  the  Australian Dollar  has  a  bearish  posture  ..

  WHEN  LOOKING  AT THE  DAILY  CHARTS   ( futures contracts )... there  apppears to  be  a  flag-pole forming. Only  time  will  tell  if  this  holds  up ..

*…………….Please*, don't give me credit for pointing out these lines ... I have learned them form studying the work of 
Fibonacci Retracements and Elliott Waves ..... These lines work well only when they are tied to certain Elliott Wave
 structures and certain Fibonacci Retracement levels ..... outside of this they become less reliable...... *a whole lot less reliable .*
 This  is exactly  the reason why  you  could never back test a particular stock or commodity for these lines without these 2
 basic theories of understanding.  *NOT  ALL  CHART PATTERNS   ARE  TRADEABLE .*
(This depends on your trading strategy or trading style )

 * ALWAYS REMEMBER ….      *  


*What makes a market place is all of our diffrences of opinions .
------- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -*
It is far more difficult to *Exit a trade * than to *Enter a trade *  .... I am sure that you have heard that said before ,,,

THIS IS WHY ,

*When making trade it just as important to have an idea where you want to exit as it is to place a stop to protect yourself from a move against you  .* 
( THIS IS A PEARL OF WISDOM ) 


*THERE IS NO HOLY GRAIL ///// I KNOW THAT YOU KNOW THIS ....*


THATS WHY I TRADE ELLIOTT WAVES  , because its giving you a probability of where to look for a turn in a given market .....
The smaller the risk in relation to the price objective , the better chance of success in long haul .... (This is  called Risk to Reward )

It’s just the way that is ...

Think of a Head and Shoulder pattern ... you learned of them long ago .... they always have a target based on the head and the neckline area ... This is not my design ... It was around long before all of us and will be around for some time after we are all  gone.//

Please try to understand the price target in a head and shoulder set -up ... as an example , Because there are other patterns like symetrrical triangles and falling wedges and ascending triangles that also have price targets tied to them .... Traders have been measuring these price patterns for a long time ....

*Surely ... * they don't all make it to their *targets or so called objectives *  , and I totaly agree with you , that they don't ..

But , it is the best premise there is to work on.....This is  always explained and drawn out on charts ////



*TRADE AT YOUR OWN RISK*… The purpose of these charts is to point out significant highs and lows based on Fibonacci Retracement lines and Elliott Waves which are highly subjective . This information is for educational purposes and should not be considered trading recommendations . All trading decisions are your own sole responsibility …


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## DTM (17 July 2005)

*Re: Australian Dollar ….  (a  no-brainer trade set up ? )*

I'm bullish on the Aussie dollar although I can see it dropping in the next few days to a major support line before it heads back up.  Long term wise it looks to go up.

Does anyone know the fundamentals for this?  

Does it mean that interest rates are going to continue up?  If yes, based on which assumptions?

Thanks in advance.

Daniel


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## RichKid (17 July 2005)

*Re: Australian Dollar ….  (a  no-brainer trade set up ? )*



			
				DTM said:
			
		

> Does anyone know the fundamentals for this?
> Does it mean that interest rates are going to continue up?  If yes, based on which assumptions?
> Thanks in advance.
> Daniel




Good question Daniel, but if anyone is to reply could you please start a new thread on the Aussie dollar fundamentals so that this thread can stay clean for only TA please? It's easier to follow that way.

You can start the new thread in the International Markets forum. Just thought it'd be easier to track things. Also do a quick search to see if there is an existing thread on Aussie dollar AUD fundamentals first. Thanks!


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## MARKETWAVES (18 July 2005)

*Re: Australian Dollar ….  (a  no-brainer trade set up ? )*

Autralian  dollar  …  *THE  AUSTRALIAN  DOLLAR  * 



  What  a  trade setup  we  have here  standing before  us  ……
  I  have  decided  to  take  this  down  to  the  cellular level  in  an  attempt  further  visually show  what  I  believe  is  going  on  …
  When  I  say  cellular  level I  mean ,,,  any  chart  formation  under  a  daily chart …..

  I  have  said  repeatedly that   trading  is  about  buying  support  *not  break  outs …*
By the  time  a  market  breaks  out , * its  too  late  * …  In  fact , in  my  trading  vocabulary  the  word  break –out  is  an  obsene  word ,,, It's  the  same  as  a  so  called  cuss  word  as  we  call  it  over  here in  the  States .


  There  s  is  a lot  of  importance  on  *Fibonacci  Retracements * to  study  and  more  importantly  learn  to  watch  for  them  …  

  Take  a  close  look  below ,,,, 
 I  offer  these  *5  intraday  charts*   to  you  *DTM * …. To give you   more  visual  proof  of  the  posture  of  the  Australian Dollar ….  

*The  main  concern  here  is  the  50  %  level ……  and  the  618%  level   ….* Any  seasoned  technitian  knows  that  these  are  classic  pull-back  levels  ,,,,,

 Now  these  lines  may  not  hold  up  in  then  coming days,,,,,  it  may  break  through  these  support  lines …..
.........  That’s not  the  concern  here   …..

*Risk  to  Reward  is  the  main  concern    * ….  Not  money  mangement  ….

. Money  mangerment  is   different  than  Risk  to  Reward …  learn  to  separate  these  two  and  you will  become  a  more  confident  trader ……  

  Always  remember ,   that  *THE  PROS*….    are  concerned  with measuring  the *Risk vs the  Reward  .*............      

*............................THE  AMATEURE    * *is concerned ABOUT BEING RIGHT  all the time ...*


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## MARKETWAVES (18 July 2005)

*Re: Australian Dollar ….  (a  no-brainer trade set up ? )*

HERE  ARE  3  LONG  TERM  VIEWS  TO  CONSIDER ......


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## DTM (18 July 2005)

*Re: Australian Dollar ….  (a  no-brainer trade set up ? )*

Thanks again MW.  Nice charts again.  It gives the Aussie dollar picture more clarity, as I can see it more clearly with the short time frames.

Thanks again for the tip.  I finally got it.


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## MARKETWAVES (19 July 2005)

*Re: Australian Dollar ….  (a  no-brainer trade set up ? )*

HAs   any one    heard  from  *DTM ?*

DTM  ARE  YOU STILL  THERE    ?.........    I  sent  you  2  messages  in  the  private box  yesterday  about  the  *AUSD  FOREX  ...* 
ALSO ,   did  you  find  out  about  your  friend ?
    Well,  let  me  know ......please 
if  you  had a  chance   to  read them  ...

  In  the  mean   while  ...........heres  the  result  from  yesterdays post ...  support  held  up  very  nicely  today  as  you  can  see  ...  prices  literally  blasted  out  of  the base  that  was   illustrated  ..  on  the  intra day  charts  above.. 


.......................................................................................................

   Look  at   what  has  happened  since  yesterday  to  the  *Australian  Dollar ……  * 
 Again , this  rally  is  standing  straight  up  …  What's  the  fundamental  underlying  cause  ? UH? …..  I  don’t  know  ? ….  
  Well , *here's  what  I  do  know …*


  Every day  there’s  a  battle  between the  Bulls  and the  Bears …( this  is  well known fact )
At  the  same  time  ….  And  more importantly

 Theres a  battle  between *Fundamentals  and  Technicals ….*..

Markets  move  on  Technicals sometimes  
   or
Markets  move  on  Fundamentals  sometimes


What  I  am  trying  to  say  is  that   some  moves  are  *Technical *  by  their  nature   and some  moves  are *Fundamental* by  their nature ..

      TAKE  YOUR  PIC ,,,,,,,, 

  …………….Please, don't give me credit for pointing out these lines ... I have learned them form studying the work of 
*Fibonacci Retracements and Elliott Waves * ..... These lines work well only when they are tied to certain Elliott Wave
 structures and certain Fibonacci Retracement levels ..... outside of this they become less reliable...... a whole lot less reliable .
 This  is exactly  the reason why  you  could never back test a particular stock or commodity for these lines without these 2
 basic theories of understanding.  * NOT  ALL  CHART PATTERNS   ARE  TRADEABLE . *  (This depends on your trading strategy or trading style )

This  is where the understanding of *Risk to Reward * comes in ....
 One must learn to separate the term *RISK TO REWARD * from the term 
*MONEY MANGEMENT  * ...though similar ,,,,, THEY ARE DIFFRENT TOPICS ONTO THEMSELVES...



*TRADE AT YOUR OWN RISK*… The purpose of these charts is to point out significant highs and lows based on Fibonacci Retracement lines and Elliott Waves which are highly subjective . This information is for educational purposes and should not be considered trading recommendations . All trading decisions are your own sole responsibility …


----------



## MARKETWAVES (19 July 2005)

*Re: Australian Dollar ….  (a  no-brainer trade set up ? )*

Has  anyone heard from DTM ...............

   DTM  PLEASE  READ  the post above ,,,,,,,  
ITS  AN  UPDATE  to  yestrdays post  to  help  clarify ,,,,  whats  going  on ...


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## DTM (19 July 2005)

*Re: Australian Dollar ….  (a  no-brainer trade set up ? )*

Hi Market, thanks again.  Nice structure to those waves.  USD coming up to major resistance.

I didn't get your messages in my private message inbox if you would like to try again.  I don't know what the problem was.


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## RichKid (19 July 2005)

*Re: Australian Dollar ….  (a  no-brainer trade set up ? )*



			
				DTM said:
			
		

> Hi Market, thanks again.  Nice structure to those waves.  USD coming up to major resistance.
> 
> I didn't get your messages in my private message inbox if you would like to try again.  I don't know what the problem was.




Hi MW,
Your pm inbox is full, please delete some old messages so I can contact you- I have been trying for two days.
Thanks!


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## MARKETWAVES (22 July 2005)

*Re: Australian Dollar ….  (a  no-brainer trade set up ? )*

DTM,.....

THE  RESULTS  ARE  IN  .....


   NICE MOVE  UP , HUH ?

  REmeber  that  private message  from  Sun  that  I  sent  to  you ? 
It  was  about the AUSD  breaking  through 7490 ....

   well  here  we  are  ,,,,,  JUST 3 DAYS  LATER


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## DTM (22 July 2005)

*Re: Australian Dollar ….  (a  no-brainer trade set up ? )*



			
				MARKETWAVES said:
			
		

> DTM,.....
> 
> THE  RESULTS  ARE  IN  .....
> 
> ...




WOW!!!  What a move.  Look at that go!!!  Nice work Market.  Nice application of Fib retracement levels on a smaller time frame.  I guess it really works well on all levels.

Market, didn't get that message, any chance you could send it again?

Thanks

Daniel


----------

