# GCL - Gloucester Coal



## excalibur (8 May 2005)

The Deutsche Bank has ceased to be a substantial shareholder of GCL as of April 29. Is their any coment about that?  
The security seemed to behave very positive about it.


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## MARKETWAVES (10 May 2005)

*Re: Gloucester Coal LTD : Latest News*

HERE'S  WHY.....

  COAL  STATISTICS ..............


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## GreatPig (10 May 2005)

*Re: Gloucester Coal LTD : Latest News*

Marketwaves,

Could you please try posting your attachments as GIF files rather than JPG files.

I think  you'll find the image quality will be better and the file size much smaller.

Cheers,
GP


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## excalibur (11 May 2005)

*Re: Gloucester Coal LTD : Latest News*

Thanks very much for the info marketwaves.
 
Great chat forum!


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## excalibur (14 May 2005)

*Re: Gloucester Coal LTD : Latest News*



			
				excalibur said:
			
		

> Thanks very much for the info marketwaves.
> 
> Great chat forum!




I am a bit puzzeled although about the commentary.
Even if the chinese are looking for cleaner energy doesn`t mean that they don`t need any coal anymore. Those generators especially steel factories which can only run with coal to arrive at  certain temperatures is the black coal very vital. Gloucester has as well very big customers in Japan with the steel mills.
I do think that there is a bit of uncertainity with china as a vital customer, but would not yet take it off the list.
Does anyone know if the australians have any plans about liquifing coal?
(if necessary)  
Be pleased to hear of opinions


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## excalibur (14 May 2005)

*Re: Gloucester Coal LTD : Latest News*

Export recovery to continue in 05: DFAT
May 13, 2005 - 6:47PM


Australia's export recovery is expected to continue in 2005, although the ongoing drought could restrict growth in the rural sector.

A new government report released on Friday on Australia's trading patterns for 2004 said exports this year should benefit from improved global economic conditions and strong demand and prices for commodities such as coal.

"There have been encouraging signs of continued growth in Australia's exports in 2005," the Department of Foreign Affairs and Trade (DFAT) report said.

"However, rainfall deficiencies persist in some parts of inland eastern Australia and may affect rural exports over the period."

The report found Australia's exports lifted eight per cent to $152.5 billion in 2004 on the back of a rise in volumes and prices, mainly in the resources sector.

However, our appetite for imports, especially cars, also increased eight per cent to $178.2 billion, aided by the stronger Australian dollar.

Opposition trade spokesman Simon Crean said the DFAT report confirmed Australia was facing a trade crisis.
AdvertisementAdvertisement

"Notwithstanding record commodity prices, the highest terms of trade since the 1950s and brisk global growth, the value of Australia's exports rose only eight per cent in 2004, just keeping pace with the eight per cent growth in imports, thereby increasing the trade deficit," he said.

Treasurer Peter Costello forecast in the budget this week that imports were again expected to rise eight per cent in 2005/06, while exports were tipped to rise just seven per cent.

DFAT said Japan remained Australia's largest trading partner in 2004 ahead of the United States and China.

Japan was most hungry for Australian coal, beef and iron ore while the US wanted beef, alcohol and crude petroleum and China splashed out on iron ore, wool and petrol.

The same three countries provided most of Australia's imported goods and services.

Australians favoured US-made products the most with aircraft, measuring instruments and medicines at the top of the shopping list.

Chinese-made computers, toys and telecommunications equipment were next, followed by cars, engineering equipment and motor vehicle parts from Japan.

Overall, Australia's biggest export was coal (up 23 per cent to $13.4 billion) thanks to a rise in world prices amid growing demand from Japan, Korea and India.

The easing of the drought in some parts of Australia also helped boost exports of beef (up 28 per cent) and wheat (up 74 per cent).

A growing taste for Australian wines, especially in Britain and the United States, helped lift alcohol exports 13 per cent.

On the imports side, foreign-made cars topped the list (up four per cent) followed by crude petroleum (up 21 per cent) and computers (up 14 per cent).

Meanwhile, Trade Minister Mark Vaile said a new agriculture team was being set up by Austrade in the US to help Australian companies take advantage of the new free trade agreement between the two countries.

"Never has there been a better time for farmers, agricultural suppliers and service providers to capitalise on the enormous opportunities on offer in the US," Mr Vaile said.

 © 2005 AAP
Brought to you by aap 


http://smh.com.au/articles/2005/05/13/1115843365159.html


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## excalibur (18 May 2005)

*Re: Gloucester Coal LTD : Latest News*

CIM Resources is all of a sudden up 8.5 % !
Typical...coal is traded with dollars.

A nice day to all


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## Aussiejeff (20 May 2005)

*Re: Gloucester Coal LTD : Latest News*

Most of the coal companies have jumped well over the last couple of trading days. I wonder if talk from the Feds about taking control of the ports nationwide and reducing coal-ship bottlenecks is helping sentiment here?

Cheers,

AJ

PS: I do not hold coal stocks ATM - but my beady eye is upon them  ;o)


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## excalibur (20 May 2005)

*Re: Gloucester Coal LTD : Latest News*

I may be confusing your observation, but I do think that a such speculation from the Fed would be a negative factor for the stocks.
If you have your foot on the neck of a balloon, the air won`t escape.
The balloon is the stock and the air is trade.
But that they do discuss about it in the first place, could signal a sky-rocketing of the resources and of course of price.
Time will tell...
If the stocks got a nudge, it was primarily because of positive sentiments comin from Asia and of course the US dollar that`s gaining altitude.(slowly but surely).

Cheers
EX


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## excalibur (25 May 2005)

*Re: Gloucester Coal LTD : Latest News*

Coal mine to grow
Wednesday, 25 May 2005

Gloucester Coal has announced plans to extend the life of its mining operations in the Gloucester basin.

Activities initiated by the board are expected to double existing mineable reserves and extend the life of the company's mining operations towards 2020.

The expansion plans were flagged in a Gloucester coal strategy development announcement in February of this year and confirmed at the annual general meeting in Sydney last week.

Gloucester Coal chairman Andy Hogendijk said in his report to the meeting that for a number of years the company has had limited mineable reserves.

He told shareholders that Gloucester coal has exploration licenses over the Gloucester Basin, which has insitu resources in excess of 140 million tonnes.

"Your Directors are committed to proving these resources into mineable reserves and thereby extending the life of the operation.

"A definitive exploration program has been approved and our annoucement today will show that this work is giving us positive results," he said.

Mr Hogendijk reported to the meeting that resources and mineable reserves at Duralie have been increased significantly.

"Mineable reserves have increased by 50 percent from 13million tonnes up to 21million tonnes with the inclusion of two new open cut areas. This increase is significant in that it extends the life of the operation beyond 2017," he said.

Mr Hogendijk said resources in the potential underground area have now been staged at 115million tonnes.

The Chairman also reported on a positive financial year for the company.

He said the price increases achieved for Gloucester coking coal for the Japanese fiscal year had resulted in a strengthening of the company's financial outlook.

As a result an unfranked dividend of 10 cents per payable share was declared, payable following the release of the 30 June results.

Gloucester Coal's manager of operations Dan Buckley said Gloucester Coal had spoken to a number of landholders in the area to the north east of Duralie open cut mine to advise them of the planned expansion.

He said the company wanted to ensure those possibly impacted by the expansion plans were aware of what was planned by Gloucester Coal.

Mr Buckley said a full Environmental Impact Statement would need to be undertaken and a process of community consultation would also commence to discuss the proposed mine expansion.

He said if the mining is to occur he said it would be best if the company owned the land and as a result approaches had been made to landholders.

Among the landholders approached were Jo and Mark Giudice who moved to their 25 acres on Johnson Creek Road in January this year.

Mrs Giudice said she was caught completely by surprise by Gloucester Coal's plans.

"We've been in shock, in tears...feeling angry but we've got together with the neighbours who don't want to sell and we're going to fight," she said.

Mrs Giudice said the neighbours affected by the announcement will stick together and look after their own interests.

She said they moved to Gloucester from Sydney for the lifestyle and peace and quiet and had spent some time looking for their land.

She said the valley has not only beautiful views but an abundence of wildlife.

"To have someone say we're going to dig it up, it's a travesty," she said.

Mrs Giudice said at this stage they would wait to find out more from Gloucester Coal and what was proposed and they would wait and see what happened.

"We don't really know what to do," she said.


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## excalibur (24 June 2005)

*Re: Gloucester Coal LTD : Latest News*

Gloucester Coal to move to full ownership of its Stratford Operations through the purchase of Itochu Corporation's' 10% interest in the Stratford Joint Venture.

We have a breakout!

https://www.aussiestockforums.com/forums/attachment.php?attachmentid=&stc=1
Gloucester.png


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## excalibur (4 August 2005)

*Re: Gloucester Coal LTD : Latest News*

(GCL) GLOUCESTER COAL LTD -4.0c to $3.26; this morning reported that 465,000 tonnes of saleable coal were produced in the quarter ended 30 June 2005. The group advised that the production results reflected an 8.5% increase in effective operating throughput for its Stratford Preparation Plant. Gloucester also reported significant margin improvement from new coking coal contract prices, which were 119% higher than the last annual contracts.

27/07/05 By: egoli Resources


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## excalibur (25 January 2006)

Just would like to ask again if anyone is intersted in this stock
I have been long for 2 years now. Does anyone want to join the club.
Just for information. Gloucester has begun a large scale buy-back of shares.
Any comments.


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## excalibur (6 March 2006)

*New Unknown Coal Discoveries!!!!*

For official announcement please  check GCL.AX

or
 following link:

http://www.aspecthuntley.com.au/doc...uY2UueWFob28uY29tL2FjYS9kZWxheWVkP3M9R0NMLkFY


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## noirua (22 September 2006)

Starting to have a look at Gloucester Coal, one of the best in the junior sector. Coking Coal as well as thermal when the likes of Felix Resources extend only from thermal to semi-soft coking.

Difficult to find any flaws in the running of GCL so it must only be in future expansion plans.
A buy-back showed they have plenty of cash - or have they? Net debt was reduced to 11%.

They have now introduced a dividend re-investment plan to fund expansion. Very similar to that of CSR some years ago. Seems a change round from a buy-back situation.

We know how well the Gloucester basin is going with the extended life, due to the Clareval coking coal seam find at East Duralie, and the extension of  Stafford Resources right out to 2036.

So expansion has its financial risks at the rate GCL are planning and it should go well providing coal prices hold up.


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## noirua (18 October 2006)

GCL trade today at $3.59 which shows a sideways movement for most of this year. The buy-back has now ended and a dividend reinvestment plan comes into play. So, having bought the shares back and cancelled them, more are now being created to be sold at a 2.5% discount to shareholders via their dividend - seems a bit strange, but there you goes.

Hopefully the companies management now know what they are doing, needs a carefull check though.


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## arlee123 (2 November 2006)

hey guys

just wanna ask something....since the government announced today about the  Cleaner Energy...ie...burning of cleaner coal....what will this mean for GCL ?

positive or negative ???

Would GCL able to provide such product ?


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## noirua (7 November 2006)

GCL are now bubbling after the NSW find at Clareval, close to $4.00 again and may press on strongly.


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## noirua (17 November 2006)

At $4.18 Gloucester Coal have now broken firmly through the $4.00 barrier again and should test their all-time high shortly. Looks to have quite a lot of momentum and enthusiasm like Felix Resources of late.


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## noirua (5 April 2007)

After promising a great deal Gloucester Coal's share price has stayed below $4.00. The trading halt, noted as price sensitive, may lead to us getting the true value from GCL. A good company that should be worth more than todays price, imho.


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## noirua (10 April 2007)

From all we read in the press a bid will becoming sometime this week. Looking for about 25% more at around $4.70.


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## Julia (10 April 2007)

Yes, $4.75 is the announcement this morning.
Considering they last traded at $3.81 I'm more than happy to accept.


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## michael_selway (10 April 2007)

noirua said:


> From all we read in the press a bid will becoming sometime this week. Looking for about 25% more at around $4.70.




Unbelievable!

I have been looking at all these coal stocks recently, and all are takeover targets!

thx

MS


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## noirua (10 April 2007)

michael_selway said:


> Unbelievable!
> 
> I have been looking at all these coal stocks recently, and all are takeover targets!
> 
> ...




Spot on MS. Due to complications FLX may be the last though.


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## michael_selway (10 April 2007)

noirua said:


> Spot on MS. Due to complications FLX may be the last though.




Thats true 

MCC, CEY, GCL, RSP, FLX, CNA any others? (EXL was )

thx

MS


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## noirua (10 April 2007)

michael_selway said:


> Thats true
> 
> MCC, CEY, GCL, RSP, FLX, CNA any others? (EXL was )
> 
> ...




A list of coal miners:  http://www.ame.com.au/companies/co/companies.htm

Suddenly realised that this link is well out of date.

A better link:  http://www.australiancoal.com.au/members.htm


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## noirua (11 April 2007)

It looks well and truly like a done deal as Xstrata bid $4.75 a share for Gloucester Coal:  http://www.theaustralian.news.com.au/story/0,20867,21537228-643,00.html


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## noirua (12 April 2007)

noirua said:


> It looks well and truly like a done deal as Xstrata bid $4.75 a share for Gloucester Coal:  http://www.theaustralian.news.com.au/story/0,20867,21537228-643,00.html




Still above the offer price, so maybe there is something more to go for.


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## noirua (16 May 2007)

Xstrata previously bid $4.75 a share for Gloucester Coal and the stock has traded a little above this price. The odds are quite good that an alternative offer could be made or the bid raised by Xstrata.


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## noirua (1 July 2007)

The GCL share price has moved on strongly to pass $5.00 as AMCI join Noble Group and Xstrata in a bidding war:  http://www.smh.com.au/news/business...gloucester-coal/2007/06/29/1182624170236.html


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## noirua (14 August 2007)

Seeing the price of Gloucester Coal fall back to $4.29 after going above $5 not that long ago, it looks as if this one may be cheap in the light of improvements in coal prices. GCL has the attraction of also having reserves of hard coking coal.  Xstrata are at present bidding for Gloucester despite blocking moves by other parties. A gamble, maybe, but looking good, IMHO, which ever way it goes.


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## noirua (15 October 2007)

Gloucester Coal have struggled back to $5.00 as Noble Group increase their holding to 14.83%. The stock remains interesting and should move on further if Noble continues to build their stake.


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## michael_selway (15 October 2007)

noirua said:


> Gloucester Coal have struggled back to $5.00 as Noble Group increase their holding to 14.83%. The stock remains interesting and should move on further if Noble continues to build their stake.




it still has good forward numbers

*Earnings and Dividends Forecast (cents per share) 
2007 2008 2009 2010 
EPS 22.8 24.0 49.2 67.4 
DPS 14.0 14.0 25.0 36.0 *

thx

MS


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## noirua (30 October 2007)

Marching onwards now that the great beast of Xstrata has been shaken off and sent back to Swiss pastures.  $5.35 is encouraging and in this bullish coal sector and Noble Group still on the prowl, the signposts point forever North.


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## Absolutely (30 October 2007)

Yes and this is despite serious capacity constraints at Newcastle port.

However these guys are bullish on the future of coal and are upgrading their facilities to stack more coal in the hope they will be able to get it out of Newcastle at some stage.

Onwards and Upwards.


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## michael_selway (30 October 2007)

Absolutely said:


> Yes and this is despite serious capacity constraints at Newcastle port.
> 
> However these guys are bullish on the future of coal and are upgrading their facilities to stack more coal in the hope they will be able to get it out of Newcastle at some stage.
> 
> Onwards and Upwards.




Hi yep, coal is still the best energy generator out there today

*Earnings and Dividends Forecast (cents per share) 
2007 2008 2009 2010 
EPS 22.8 21.1 49.7 65.2 
DPS 14.0 12.0 25.0 35.0 *

thx

MS


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## noirua (6 November 2007)

After all the activity over Gloucester coal, I have come to the conclusion that, maybe, just maybe, we are nearing full value. I have now halved my remaining holding but hope they continue on upwards.


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## michael_selway (6 November 2007)

noirua said:


> After all the activity over Gloucester coal, I have come to the conclusion that, maybe, just maybe, we are nearing full value. I have now halved my remaining holding but hope they continue on upwards.




Hi is your "full value" of GCL currently?

thx

MS

*Earnings and Dividends Forecast (cents per share) 
2007 2008 2009 2010 
EPS 22.8 22.1 49.7 65.2 
DPS 14.0 12.0 25.0 35.0 *


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## noirua (22 November 2007)

michael_selway said:


> Hi is your "full value" of GCL currently?thxMS
> *Earnings and Dividends Forecast (cents per share)
> 2007 2008 2009 2010
> EPS 22.8 22.1 49.7 65.2
> DPS 14.0 12.0 25.0 35.0 *




Hi m_s et al, Thought it best to let you know that I'm out of GCL now, and I know Noble Group may bid, but $5.47 looks a fair price.  Good luck, hope it goes on up for you.


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## michael_selway (24 November 2007)

noirua said:


> Hi m_s et al, Thought it best to let you know that I'm out of GCL now, and I know Noble Group may bid, but $5.47 looks a fair price.  Good luck, hope it goes on up for you.




Oh ok, i think $6 is a fair bid, what do you think?

*Earnings and Dividends Forecast (cents per share) 
2007 2008 2009 2010 
EPS 22.8 20.6 49.7 65.2 
DPS 14.0 12.0 25.0 35.0 *

thx

MS


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## noirua (26 January 2008)

michael_selway said:


> Oh ok, i think $6 is a fair bid, what do you think?
> 
> *Earnings and Dividends Forecast (cents per share)
> 2007 2008 2009 2010
> ...




Hi M_S et al, $6 now looks cheap, and I would not be surprised if this one strode on to $7 next week - only my guess by the way and on the back of spiralling coal prices on Friday.  I bought a small amount of stock early on Friday, far too late really. Possibly the best pure coal stock left this side of the Great Divide, IMHO.


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## michael_selway (28 January 2008)

noirua said:


> Hi M_S et al, $6 now looks cheap, and I would not be surprised if this one strode on to $7 next week - only my guess by the way and on the back of spiralling coal prices on Friday.  I bought a small amount of stock early on Friday, far too late really. Possibly the best pure coal stock left this side of the Great Divide, IMHO.




yes one of the cheapest coal stocks out there with ok yield!

*Earnings and Dividends Forecast (cents per share) 
2007 2008 2009 2010 
EPS 22.8 22.0 64.4 99.3 
DPS 14.0 11.3 30.8 44.5 *

thx

MS


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## noirua (8 February 2008)

michael_selway said:


> yes one of the cheapest coal stocks out there with ok yield!
> 
> *Earnings and Dividends Forecast (cents per share)
> 2007 2008 2009 2010
> ...





Taking a while to achieve the $7.00 mark but should get there, hopefully.  Noble Group remains the big factor here and further interest is needed. SIA Funds hold 5.65% now.

Quarterly Report:  http://www.asx.com.au/asxpdf/20080129/pdf/3174cgg5nvgz91.pdf
Look ontrack for 1.8 million tonnes of sales despite shipping problems out of Newcastle.


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## noirua (18 February 2008)

noirua said:


> Taking a while to achieve the $7.00 mark but should get there, hopefully.  Noble Group remains the big factor here and further interest is needed. SIA Funds hold 5.65% now.
> 
> Quarterly Report:  http://www.asx.com.au/asxpdf/20080129/pdf/3174cgg5nvgz91.pdf
> Look ontrack for 1.8 million tonnes of sales despite shipping problems out of Newcastle.



Now through $7.00 and closed at $7.32, up 11 cents. Coal sales set for 2.8mtpa in 2009/10. Coking coal sales well up in last quarter and company playing catchup in second half on thermal coal sales out of Newcastle.


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## noirua (19 February 2008)

Glocester Coal and Felix Resources are tipped in this video broadcast by CNBC on 7th Feb 2008:  http://www.cnbc.com/id/15840232?video=641607231&play=1


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## michael_selway (19 February 2008)

noirua said:


> Glocester Coal and Felix Resources are tipped in this video broadcast by CNBC on 7th Feb 2008:  http://www.cnbc.com/id/15840232?video=641607231&play=1




Thanks Noirua, and it said FLX has a little more risk because of debt, maybe thatrs why FLX fell a bit today!

thx

MS

*Earnings and Dividends Forecast (cents per share) 
2007 2008 2009 2010 
EPS 22.8 20.7 111.4 120.7 
DPS 14.0 10.0 26.0 54.0 *


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## noirua (20 February 2008)

michael_selway said:


> Thanks Noirua, and it said FLX has a little more risk because of debt, maybe thats why FLX fell a bit today!
> thx MB*Earnings and Dividends Forecast (cents per share)
> 2007 2008 2009 2010
> EPS 22.8 20.7 111.4 120.7
> DPS 14.0 10.0 26.0 54.0 *



Hi m_s, Felix have had heavier development costs on Minerva and Ashton U/G, and Moolarben to come. Aiming for up to 13 mtpa against GCL's 2.8 mtpa. 

Gloucester Coal bounced over the $8.00 barrier today and stand at $8.13 +57 cents after $8.39. Good production of hard coking coal, with prices spiralling, seems to have done the trick here today.


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## noirua (21 February 2008)

Half Yearly Results presentation:  http://www.asx.com.au/asxpdf/20080221/pdf/317kkk3dnnqwks.pdf
Half Yearly Report and Accounts:  http://www.asx.com.au/asxpdf/20080221/pdf/317kk9w1tw1z09.pdf


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## noirua (25 February 2008)

With spot market coking coal at around US$200 per tonne against GCL's coking coal price in 2007 set at US$73 per tonne, profits are set to rocket from April 2008.
Cost for producing coking coal are quite high, A$54 per tonne, and demurrage out of Newcastle was A$3.20 per tonne in the first half. Coking coal sales were at 363kt in the first half, up 21%.
Thermal coal prices have been set at US$100 per tonne from April 2008 and coking coal prices are also expected to be set much higher.


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## MRC & Co (2 March 2008)

noirua said:


> Possibly the best pure coal stock left this side of the Great Divide, IMHO.




I agree.

Only lately have started analysing the coal stocks (may have missed the run.....?).  At least in the short-term.

But I agree with this statement, best coal stock I could find on the ASX!

Any thoughts where this one may be moving in the short and long term?  

Short-term, Im not a fan, doesnt look the best technically.  Fundamentally looks like a solid company from my quick analysis and could be a real gem longer term.


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## noirua (7 March 2008)

Presentation to the Sydney Mining Club by Mr Rob Lord, CEO, on Boardroom Radio:  http://www.brr.com.au/event/43181

Company website:  http://www.gloucestercoal.com.au


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## michael_selway (7 March 2008)

MRC & Co said:


> I agree.
> 
> Only lately have started analysing the coal stocks (may have missed the run.....?).  At least in the short-term.
> 
> ...




Hm may have missed the run?

Hm GCL went up when most things went down big today!

*Earnings and Dividends Forecast (cents per share) 
2007 2008 2009 2010 
EPS 22.8 24.3 104.0 128.9 
DPS 14.0 12.0 36.5 52.0 *

thx

MS


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## MRC & Co (7 March 2008)

michael_selway said:


> Hm may have missed the run?
> 
> Hm GCL went up when most things went down big today!
> 
> ...




Yeh, dont matter, I got in 

Think there is still legs left to run in this one yet!  At least I hope so!


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## MRC & Co (10 March 2008)

OUCH!

WTF happened to this one today?  

Triggered my stop already, though I wouldnt be surprised to see this one rally into the close and perhaps have a bit of a bounce tomorow after such a huge fall!


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## Nick Radge (10 March 2008)

All coal stocks just got clobbered. Was long MCC myself and my stop got hit too. CEY also well down.


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## MRC & Co (10 March 2008)

Nick Radge said:


> All coal stocks just got clobbered. Was long MCC myself and my stop got hit too. CEY also well down.




Yeh, they sure did!

Was looking to get on MCC also, lucky I didnt!

You think this is just a whipsaw or capitulation of the current bulls to possible smart money?  Hard to tell ATM.

BTW, great website over at thechartist!  I just started looking over it, definately enlightening me a about a few things I never knew about TA.  

Cheers and good luck Nick!


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## michael_selway (10 March 2008)

Nick Radge said:


> All coal stocks just got clobbered. Was long MCC myself and my stop got hit too. CEY also well down.




Hi Nick MCC clobbered? yeah but it went to an all time high on Friday close to $13?

You have to look into coal stocks in perspective 

thx

MS

*GCL - Earnings and Dividends Forecast (cents per share) 
2007 2008 2009 2010 
EPS 22.8 27.8 110.6 138.0 
DPS 14.0 13.0 42.0 63.5 *


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## noirua (20 March 2008)

$8.00 a share looks a reasonable price to evacuate from GCL.  Future production will reach 2.5mtpa but this is a bit on the lowside when compared with FLX's 13 to 15mtpa. Sure they have some coking coal but Felix has a lot of PCI and semi-soft coking and their new mine is much lower cost.
Gloucester will still do very well but time to go I'm afraid.  Hope it goes on up for you - good luck.


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## noirua (1 May 2008)

A change of track here as I dive back into Gloucester Coal on the back of the semi-hard coking coal find.
http://www.asx.com.au/asxpdf/20080501/pdf/318x1pbv6gr9gp.pdf


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## michael_selway (1 May 2008)

noirua said:


> A change of track here as I dive back into Gloucester Coal on the back of the semi-hard coking coal find.
> http://www.asx.com.au/asxpdf/20080501/pdf/318x1pbv6gr9gp.pdf




Hi so you mean you are back in GCL?

*Earnings and Dividends Forecast (cents per share) 
2007 2008 2009 2010 
EPS 22.8 35.6 154.5 159.9 
DPS 14.0 16.5 70.0 73.0 *



> Date: 29/4/2008
> Author: Jamie Freed
> Source: The Sydney Morning Herald --- Page: 23
> New South Wales miner Gloucester Coal is considering partnerships in order tohelp it secure a higher price for its thermal coal. Gloucester MD, Rob Lord,said it will investigate whether there are partnership opportunities to blendits lower-quality thermal coal to extract a higher value from the resource. Thecompany is believed to have had preliminary talks with potential blendingpartners including Noble Group and American Metals & Coal International, itstwo largest shareholders. Ongoing infrastructure restraints meantGloucester's production in the March 2008 quarter declined 19% to 439,000tonnes compared with the previous corresponding period




thx

MS


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## noirua (2 May 2008)

michael_selway said:


> Hi so you mean you are back in GCL?
> thx MS



Hi m_s, Yes!  I have a certain way of putting it, a form of poetic code that makes you wonder if I did or not.


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## Muschu (23 May 2008)

It appears that GCL has recieved some good publicity lately - mentioned in Samrt Investor, and was there a positive report from UBS?  Hadn't come across this stock until yesterday.  Look promising?


----------



## michael_selway (23 May 2008)

noirua said:


> Hi m_s, Yes!  I have a certain way of putting it, a form of poetic code that makes you wonder if I did or not.




Hm good thing you did, it has gone crazy today alone!

*Earnings and Dividends Forecast (cents per share) 
2007 2008 2009 2010 
EPS 22.8 28.3 153.7 153.6 
DPS 14.0 15.0 68.0 75.0 *

thx

MS


----------



## michael_selway (23 May 2008)

Muschu said:


> It appears that GCL has recieved some good publicity lately - mentioned in Samrt Investor, and was there a positive report from UBS?  Hadn't come across this stock until yesterday.  Look promising?




Yep looks very positive

Gloucester Coal Shares Surge on UBS Recommendation (Update1) 

By Jesse Riseborough



> May 22 (Bloomberg) -- Gloucester Coal Ltd. rose to its highest in more than 11 years in Sydney trading after UBS AG said it's the ``best value'' coal stock in Australia as takeovers increase.
> 
> Gloucester has the most ``upside potential'' based on valuations used in ArcelorMittal's A$631 million ($608 million) purchase this week of a 14.9 percent stake in rival producer Macarthur Coal Ltd., UBS analysts led by Sydney-based Glyn Lawcock said in a report. The bank said Felix Resources Ltd. is its other ``key pick'' in the sector.
> 
> ...


----------



## noirua (28 June 2008)

Still looking good are Gloucester coal and that's despite the tumble in the last week. 
Like Felix Resources, there are major holders who can sit and make it very tough for any mining major to bid high enough - so, there's not that much chance of it happening at these heady prices that rely on the coal boom continuing.
I'm staying with them at present as they appear worth the gamble on coal prices staying high for the next 15 years, that's my opinion though, you may think otherwise.


----------



## noirua (1 July 2008)

Noble group have raised their stake in Gloucester Coal by 2% to approximately 21.7%.  GCL remain weaker with the sector in the recent sell-off.


----------



## noirua (6 July 2008)

After recent declines and taking into account that Gloucester Coal is Merril Lynch's most favoured coal stock, in Australia. I've decided that increasing my holding was a reasonable bet. The semi-hard coking coal available at Gloucester is excellent for a relativaly small miner.


----------



## michael_selway (6 July 2008)

noirua said:


> After recent declines and taking into account that Gloucester Coal is Merril Lynch's most favoured coal stock, in Australia. I've decided that increasing my holding was a reasonable bet. The semi-hard coking coal available at Gloucester is excellent for a relativaly small miner.




Nice, did you pick up any other coalies last week?

*Earnings and Dividends Forecast (cents per share) 
2007 2008 2009 2010 
EPS 22.8 31.7 156.2 279.4 
DPS 14.0 16.4 77.0 75.2 *







thx

MS


----------



## noirua (7 July 2008)

michael_selway said:


> Nice, did you pick up any other coalies last week?
> thx MS




This is the only coal stock I picked up last week, or added - some stocks look a bit uncertain. I'm staying with my usual five and praying for deliverance to the promised land of King Coal.


----------



## noirua (29 July 2008)

Added a few more shares on the back of the promising situation at Felix resources. The fall back in the share price may well have been overdone.


----------



## noirua (6 August 2008)

noirua said:


> Added a few more shares on the back of the promising situation at Felix resources. The fall back in the share price may well have been overdone.



The price still continues to fall but I remain very confident in GCL. Added even more stock as the semi-hard coking coal agreement at US$300 per tonne should see profits rocket for 2009.
The bid situation has gone quiet and talk of a Gloucester Coal and Felix Resources tie up is all but dead in the water, and Xstrata who left the bid scene with their nose chewed off, are unlikely to show further interest.


----------



## noirua (3 September 2008)

Looking good are Gloucester Coal in this Australian Coal Summit report:  http://www.asx.com.au/asxpdf/20080903/pdf/31c38rryxqprrf.pdf
http://www.gloucestercoal.com.au


----------



## michael_selway (3 September 2008)

noirua said:


> Looking good are Gloucester Coal in this Australian Coal Summit report:  http://www.asx.com.au/asxpdf/20080903/pdf/31c38rryxqprrf.pdf
> http://www.gloucestercoal.com.au




Hi Noirua, thanks

*Earnings and Dividends Forecast (cents per share) 
2008 2009 2010 2011 
EPS 28.7 166.3 256.0 273.6 
DPS 21.0 76.1 110.9 128.1 *



> Date: 28/8/2008
> Author: Sarah-Jane Tasker
> Source: The Australian --- Page: 22
> Australian-listed mining group Gloucester Coal has recorded a 2007-08 net profitof $A23.4m that was up 30%. The main factor was the price rise of more than 270%the company had gained from Japanese coking coal buyers. Experts however notethat the long-term forecast for output from Gloucester's mine assets isuncertain, while infrastructure bottlenecks at the Newcastle coal shipping portare also retarding export growth. CEO Rob Lord says production is to be boostedby 800,000 tonnes to four million annually
> ...




thx

MS


----------



## noirua (3 September 2008)

Hi m_s, The chart does tell a story as to the amount of aggregate being mixed into the ROM coal mined.  Xstrata have now closed their open-cut mine at Ulan and now have a longwall operation only. So the chart forward to 2009 will reduce the operation at Ulan by about 40%, unless they solve their dispute with Felix Resources.

GCL are looking good for 2009 and profits forward into 2010 should bounce to around EBITDA $250 million on 4mtpa. 2009 has a mixed development cost factor but should still reach $130 million.
GCL are good payers of dividends which should reach 50 cents in 2009 and $1 in 2010.


----------



## michael_selway (14 September 2008)

noirua said:


> Hi m_s, The chart does tell a story as to the amount of aggregate being mixed into the ROM coal mined.  Xstrata have now closed their open-cut mine at Ulan and now have a longwall operation only. So the chart forward to 2009 will reduce the operation at Ulan by about 40%, unless they solve their dispute with Felix Resources.
> 
> GCL are looking good for 2009 and profits forward into 2010 should bounce to around EBITDA $250 million on 4mtpa. 2009 has a mixed development cost factor but should still reach $130 million.
> GCL are good payers of dividends which should reach 50 cents in 2009 and $1 in 2010.




Yep still looks good

*Earnings and Dividends Forecast (cents per share) 
2008 2009 2010 2011 
EPS 28.7 180.1 250.7 284.3 
DPS 21.0 76.0 140.5 123.0 *











thx

MS


----------



## noirua (7 October 2008)

Decided that I just had to buy a small amount of extra stock as soon as they went under $5.00. May be a gamble, but could not forgive myself if I failed to buy at this price.
Prospects are downgraded now in the light of financial events in America and Europe, but not this much, surely.


----------



## countryboy (8 October 2008)

closed at $4.49 today  forecast earnings of 76 and $1 plus for 2010 make this compelling research.
resisted several urges to dip my toe in the water and glad i have done so.Im only looking at stocks now that forecast returns above 20% !!!


----------



## noirua (9 October 2008)

countryboy said:


> closed at $4.49 today  forecast earnings of 76 and $1 plus for 2010 make this compelling research.
> resisted several urges to dip my toe in the water and glad i have done so.Im only looking at stocks now that forecast returns above 20% !!!



OK, yes, I bought more too soon, and resisted buying more yesterday. Will probably buy some more this morning or maybe not. The markets can be very confusing and it's is certainly difficult to buy more when the knife is falling.

No doubt buyers are going to ask for delays in coking coal deliveries, early price cuts, or even new contracts. That's what is happening with iron ore shipments.
These are binding agreements but bankrupt companies won't be paying for anything.

Aussie Dollar weakness leaves lots of leeway to drop prices


----------



## countryboy (9 October 2008)

gee whiz $3.90 Im going yo have to buy a small amount and see if it drops lower.This market is presenting some wonderful opportunities for those who can hold their nerve. There is no logic for this other than people want their money out of shares.


----------



## michael_selway (9 October 2008)

countryboy said:


> gee whiz $3.90 Im going yo have to buy a small amount and see if it drops lower.This market is presenting some wonderful opportunities for those who can hold their nerve. There is no logic for this other than people want their money out of shares.




Hi yep its gone crazy all right 

*Earnings and Dividends Forecast (cents per share) 
2008 2009 2010 2011 
EPS 28.7 180.1 250.7 288.6 
DPS 21.0 76.0 146.1 123.0 *

thx

MS


----------



## countryboy (10 October 2008)

lesson learnt .....again Im keeping my money in my pockets !!!now down to $3.60 ish and on a 10% loss already.


----------



## noirua (10 October 2008)

countryboy said:


> lesson learnt .....again Im keeping my money in my pockets !!!now down to $3.60 ish and on a 10% loss already.



Gloucester Coal have just announced an on market buyback of 7.5% of the companies shares or $28 million. This may be a trend for profitable coal companies.
I'm certain, in my mind (IMHO), the recovery will come soon in this sector.  For this reason, and despite very heavy losses, I've bought more stock. Probably my last buy of GCL, and will sit back and wait now.


----------



## subi1 (10 October 2008)

noirua said:


> Gloucester Coal have just announced an on market buyback of 7.5% of the companies shares or $28 million. This may be a trend for profitable coal companies.
> I'm certain, in my mind (IMHO), the recovery will come soon in this sector.  For this reason, and despite very heavy losses, I've bought more stock. Probably my last buy of GCL, and will sit back and wait now.




The buyback sounds like a good idea to me.

Hopefully they will start real soon. I hope companies like ozl will do the same.


----------



## Dickwhit (13 October 2008)

In this market I am one of the crazy ones & have bought in last Thursday & Friday. Can some-one tell me where I can locate world coking coal current prices? Also, how do I get hold of a brokers report on this company?


----------



## babka (13 October 2008)

You may find it on Gloucestor Coal web site, sometimes they print brokers report. I am thinking of buying a few shares, seems to me that is a well run company.


----------



## subi1 (13 October 2008)

Dickwhit said:


> In this market I am one of the crazy ones & have bought in last Thursday & Friday. Can some-one tell me where I can locate world coking coal current prices? Also, how do I get hold of a brokers report on this company?




I think you will find they have annual contract prices the similar to iron ore.

They received a record price from the Japanese steel mills they sell to and this lasts until April. The concern at the moment would be if the mills didn't need as much, but the contracts may cover this?

The Australian dollar should really be increasing profits at the moment.

If you check their ASX announcements the contract prices and other info should be in there(although I am not certain on this)

Please do your own research.


----------



## Dickwhit (14 October 2008)

I want to keep in touch on price trends & can monitor thermal coal on Global coal's web site. Also, no doubt there is Foreign Exchange contracts involved thus reducing currency changes.


----------



## noirua (14 October 2008)

Thermal coal is tanking out of Newcastle, spot price that is, about US$111 per tonne against the US$125 per tonne set on 1st April 2008.

Biggest concern is about semi-hard coking coal which was set at US$300 per tonne, and used in the steel industry.  Quality PCI and semi-soft coking, also used in some steel making and sells at lower prices, may soften the harder coke prices. 
This is probably why GCL has taken a hammering. Probably well overdone, but there yah goes.


----------



## derty (20 October 2008)

For a share buyback do you think the company will be either:

looking to buy as many shares as it can? i.e. pick them up at as low a price as possible, or
wait for times when the sell side is thin in order to advance the share price for the least possible outlay?


----------



## noirua (7 November 2008)

Gloucester Coal fell only 1 cent on Friday as the company confirmed its share buyback is in progress with a purchase of 100,000 shares on Thursday.
WBC and BTT, despite being only investment funds, have moved to substantial shareholder status.


----------



## noirua (10 November 2008)

Gloucester Coal trade at $4.60 on a 4.5% yield, a PE of 16.2 and an earnings yield of 6.2% for 2008. The company has low cost mines at Duralie, Bowens Rd N and Rosevil.

Profits are set to jump considerably to their Y/E June 30th 2009. Like all companies in the sector there is uncertainty on prices beyond that date, but the weak Aussie will be helping.

Restrictions at the Newcastle Port caused GCL to switch to shipping more coking coal with a subsequent reduction in thermal sales, in the first quarter 2009. Coking coal sales were up 5% and thermal down 22%.

After the first quarter, YE 2009, stocks rose by 47 million tonnes.
An on market share buyback is underway for 7.5%of the companies quoted stock.


----------



## noirua (24 November 2008)

noirua said:


> Gloucester Coal trade at $4.60 on a 4.5% yield, a PE of 16.2 and an earnings yield of 6.2% for 2008. The company has low cost mines at Duralie, Bowens Rd N and Rosevil.
> 
> Profits are set to jump considerably to their Y/E June 30th 2009. Like all companies in the sector there is uncertainty on prices beyond that date, but the weak Aussie will be helping.
> 
> ...



How times change on the coal market these days, and the present $3.00 price on a yield of 7% and PE10.4 isn't cheap for the sector at all.   However, it could be the sector that's very cheap overall?

Buyback seems to be continuing at a very gradual rate and shares may be worth a punt on possible underscore estimates on the coking coal price.


----------



## noirua (25 November 2008)

The view of analysts on Gloucester Coal Ltd.,
http://markets.ft.com/tearsheets/analysis.asp?s=AU:GCL


----------



## noirua (19 December 2008)

Gloucester coal has said they are not going to reduce coal production and will continue with the present share buyback plan.
How long though before the walls of coal pile too high?


----------



## oldblue (19 December 2008)

Small vote of confidence in the company.
Disclosure that a  director has bought 15,000 shares.


----------



## Mindsphere (20 December 2008)

> Gloucester Coal Ltd expects first half year net profit after tax to be a record and in the range A$41-44 million; although the result is subject to the timing of ship sailings, one of which is due to depart Newcastle late December.




Considering last year's first half profits were ~$10 million, surely this bodes well for the up-till-now collapsing share price? Any guesses for Monday's price range?


----------



## noirua (20 December 2008)

Mindsphere said:


> Considering last year's first half profits were ~$10 million, surely this bodes well for the up-till-now collapsing share price? Any guesses for Monday's price range?



That's just what it is, a guess. The price of GCL is very cheap but that means nothing in these markets as the stock price itself can bring a company to its knees.
Coking coal is set to plummit in price and it can't be used as thermal, only semi-soft coke and PCI coal can. 
Markets seem to think these medium sized coalers should be on a yield of 7% with a dividend certain to be maintained or increased. Any severe wobble in coal sales and GCL may dip further.
Meanwhile all eyes are on this buyback, because if it stops the company is worried about future profitability.


----------



## noirua (31 December 2008)

Gloucester Coal have been cheered by announcements of a 500,000 tonne, locked in, above average price for thermal coal for 2009/10. Further agreements are also in place.


----------



## gfresh (29 January 2009)

GCL Quarterly out today, and fairly impressive for this smaller coal miner: 

* 1mt thermal coal contracts locked in for 2009/10 

* 21% increase in sales for December quarter the year before

* Thermal replacing reduced demand for coking. 

* 6 month NPAT to 31st December = upper end of guidance $44m (record)

* Debt free and $25m cash backing. 

Looking pretty good to deliver close somewhere near a 8-10% fully franked yield. Obvious downside in next 6-12 months in terms of profit, however seems to have been thrown out with the bathwater.


----------



## michael_selway (29 January 2009)

gfresh said:


> GCL Quarterly out today, and fairly impressive for this smaller coal miner:
> 
> * 1mt thermal coal contracts locked in for 2009/10
> 
> ...




Yep its amazing how they can easily switch to producing more thermal coal and less coking coal 

*Earnings and Dividends Forecast (cents per share) 
2008 2009 2010 2011 
EPS 28.7 111.3 101.0 103.9 
DPS 21.0 40.0 51.0 57.0 *









> Date: 6/1/2009
> Author: Luke Forrestal
> Source: The Australian Financial Review --- Page: 13
> Gloucester Coal is not concerned by a fall in the price of thermal coal. Priceindices declined sharply in late 2008. However, Gloucester MD Rob Lord believesthat the price will remain strong over the next year and that the company willbe helped by strong volumes


----------



## noirua (2 February 2009)

Looking at the second quarterly for Gloucester Coal they forecast $41 - $44 million net profit in the first half, and that is reasonable but not upbeat.

Disappointing is the thermal coal reality check with 1 million tonnes of thermal coal sales set at just over US$70 per tonne to the end of YE June 09.. Not so much profit there with a 56% fall in coking coal sales at a previous US$300 per tonne.

Cash in hand is just $25 million after buying back some shares. None bought lately though.

$134 million is hedged at 85 cents to the US$.
643,365 shares were bought and cancelled as part of the buyback.

Shares probably not bad value after the big drop but bad publicity for the sector may not yet have calmed nerves.


----------



## vincent191 (2 February 2009)

This stock has been very disappointing, maybe they should have used the money to pay a dividend instead of doing a share buyback?

In my opinion, the share buyback did nothing for the share price.


----------



## oldblue (2 February 2009)

vincent191 said:


> This stock has been very disappointing, maybe they should have used the money to pay a dividend instead of doing a share buyback?
> 
> In my opinion, the share buyback did nothing for the share price.




That's the problem with "silent evidence".
We'll never know what the SP would have done without the buyback!


----------



## dirty_harry (2 February 2009)

Hi guys,
GCL (and some others like MCC) look incredibly cheap to me, could someone please tell me if my logic is wrong.
- pe ratio in the 3's and paid off all debt, so no risk of dilution through capital rasing.
- can survive on selling only thermal coal while the industrial crisis is on.
- Australian companies like GCL are low cost producers so will be left standing if prices really collapse. The US producers are higher cost and will be losing money if prices come down much further.
- Beautiful hedge against a collapsing AUD.
- Fastest growing fuel in the world. Coal is politically incorrect but the greenies will still want their hot showers, not to mention China and India.
- You are buying more than a ton of coal in the ground for each dollar you invest right now.
- when the steel mills start up again one day the upside is massive.
- Unless someone can invent a fusion reactor, all fossil fuels including gas, oil and coal are very valuable medium to long term.
- Seems like this is a good example of something going down because it is gone down.


----------



## vincent191 (2 February 2009)

Harry, I hope you are right, I am still holding on to my GCL even though I am behind the 8 ball by a proverbial mile. I have long losted my "averaging down" ability on this stock.

Firstly I have run out of cash and secondly it has already broken my rule not to have more than 10% of any one stock in my portfolio.

All I can say is, fear is dominating the market and common sense and logic no longer rules.

I agree with some commentators who hold the view that the glass is half full instead of being half empty. The current depressed market is holding some wonderful buying opportunities.

I just wish the bull will hurry up and get here soon. Everytime I see the market plunge, I get weaker at the knees. At least I am the master of my own destiny and did not borrow to invest, unlike some poor punters with Storm.


----------



## dirty_harry (2 February 2009)

Vincent,
    hang in there mate. I look at it as a 5 year investment from this point.
I bought some more today, and also holding a lot of MCC. The Chinese, Koreans and Indians paid $20/share for stakes in MCC for a reason - they know there are problems with supply longer term. They haven't sold any. Apparently Soros bought a lot of Peabody at much higher prices in September, and Buffet also bought a lot of COP (gas, etc) at that time. Since then they have lost over half if they sold now. 
    My opinion is that the west will print money this year like never before, and once there is inflation again commodities will skyrocket, especially energy. Although abundant, there is not as much coal in the world as people think. US is past peak production, and Australia has high quality.
   Coal is Australia's largest export by a huge margin. If there is depression and a large drop in demand, then the AUD could crash offsetting the effect for the companies, but ruining cash horders in real terms.


----------



## oldblue (2 February 2009)

Hi d-h.

For what it's worth, I think your logic's pretty right.
I wouldn't try to estimate P/E's and other numbers - current high profitability looks to be only temporary - but GCL should be a survivor and will prosper in better times.

I'm holding tight.


----------



## dirty_harry (2 February 2009)

Thanks Blue,
my calculations and assumptions for the PE are:
current spot price for thermal US80, assume US120 for coking.
Conservatively assume 2 mill tons/yr at average of US90 =  AUD135 at .67fx rate.
Production cost/ton is AUD75 from their presentations.
Therefore profit approx = 135-75 x 2mill tons. = 120 mill.
Subtract 25% to be conservative = 90 mill.
Market cap is approx 270mill, 270/90 = PE of 3.
They will blow some of this on exploration but so what.
Imagine if coal prices go back up later on (maybe 2 years more or less), they increase production, and in a commodities bull market people will pay 12-15 time earnings instead of 3. 
Am I missing something?


----------



## michael_selway (2 February 2009)

dirty_harry said:


> Thanks Blue,
> my calculations and assumptions for the PE are:
> current spot price for thermal US80, assume US120 for coking.
> Conservatively assume 2 mill tons/yr at average of US90 =  AUD135 at .67fx rate.
> ...




Yeah these are great companies. However what you should have done is sold at the near highs (like i did) and then you could buy back in later like now when its low etc. Did you ever consider that?

Thanks

MS


*Earnings and Dividends Forecast (cents per share) 
2008 2009 2010 2011 
EPS 28.7 101.4 101.0 103.9 
DPS 21.0 40.0 51.0 57.0* 







*Date: 2/2/2009 
Author: Ayesha de Kretser 
Source: The Australian Financial Review --- Page: 16 
In February 2009, China will begin serious dealing on coal supplies and prices.This will be closely watched by Australian coal sellers. Coking and thermal coaldemand in China is unclear, but Fortescue Metals Group negotiated a price of$A96.63 per tonne for iron ore in late January 2009 *


----------



## dirty_harry (2 February 2009)

Yes, wish I sold everything June to buy back in now that's for sure.
Congrats if you did.

I think living OS in a low or no tax situation somewhere would be a huge advantage because it's usually fear of CGT that stops people from selling when prices look a bit rich.


----------



## noirua (3 February 2009)

GCL report of exploration to increase reserves:  http://www.asx.com.au/asxpdf/20090202/pdf/31fvmrwh6h19rx.pdf

BT Investment Management (Assoc of Westpac) has increased its holding in GCL from 5.01% to 6.05%.


----------



## vincent191 (20 February 2009)

At last something has happened. They have announced a merger with Whitehaven based on 2.45 WHC share for 1 GCL.

Since WHC is trading at $1.50 does this mean that GCL is worth $3.68??

Anyway no matter what, I think this is a good move to merge the two and reduce any cost duplications. Anything that can reduce my losses is a good thing.


----------



## noirua (20 February 2009)

vincent191 said:


> At last something has happened. They have announced a merger with Whitehaven based on 2.45 WHC share for 1 GCL.
> 
> Since WHC is trading at $1.50 does this mean that GCL is worth $3.68??
> 
> Anyway no matter what, I think this is a good move to merge the two and reduce any cost duplications. Anything that can reduce my losses is a good thing.



Both companies are on similar EYs and PEs and it is only the dividend of Whitehaven that is so much lower than Gloucester's.
I can see the stocks going higher when they reopen on confidence factors.


----------



## woltage (20 February 2009)

vincent191 said:


> At last something has happened. They have announced a merger with Whitehaven based on 2.45 WHC share for 1 GCL.
> 
> Since WHC is trading at $1.50 does this mean that GCL is worth $3.68??
> 
> Anyway no matter what, I think this is a good move to merge the two and reduce any cost duplications. Anything that can reduce my losses is a good thing.




Here's my guestimate at GCL's new worth

Shares GCL = 82 mil
Shares WHC = 391 mil
New GCL shares = 391/2.45 = 160
Dilution = (1 - (82/82+160))*100 = 76%

MC Combined = 900 mil
New worth = 900 * (1-0.76) = 306 mil
Increase = (306-268)/268 = 14%

So GCL should go up 14%

I could be wrong


----------



## michael_selway (20 February 2009)

woltage said:


> Here's my guestimate at GCL's new worth
> 
> Shares GCL = 82 mil
> Shares WHC = 391 mil
> ...




Hehe what about WHC price going down 











Thanks

MS


----------



## gfresh (20 February 2009)

Really just means there will be a lot of arbing going on to approach that 2.45 ratio  Looks like WHC is taking the brunt of it at the moment - the exact prices of both should just vary in tandem once it gets there.

UBS has done a nice job keeping GCL flat for the last few weeks. I had a suspicion somebody was trying to keep the price down (or was it up?), with the current volatility, for a stock to stay in that range for that long seemed a little odd. 

I think it's a good thing long-term, but current negative global mood means it will probably not much of a huge re-rating in stock prices short term.


----------



## UMike (27 February 2009)

Out at $4.95.

Thanks Noble group for the take over offer and the quick increase in the SP.

I Really liked GCL and will look for a re-entry if it moves a fair bit lower.


----------



## noirua (12 March 2009)

Barclays have increased their holding, via 3 funds, to 8.28% of Gloucester Coal which looks like a positioning move. Despite the stock moving lower early on today they look a good gamble if Noble Group raise their offer in the coming months.


----------



## noirua (3 April 2009)

noirua said:


> Barclays have increased their holding, via 3 funds, to 8.28% of Gloucester Coal which looks like a positioning move. Despite the stock moving lower early on today they look a good gamble if Noble Group raise their offer in the coming months.



Barclays Group holding is now up to 11.45% in GCL. This looks to be a bit of a gamble stock now on the outcome of the bid situation. 
If Noble Group is genuinely interested then they need to raise their bid substantially.


----------



## noirua (15 April 2009)

Gloucester Coal seem to have missed out on the recent run up in coal companies stock prices. Or was it that they leaped on the takeover bid that may now be holding them back a bit.  Speculative now on a possible counter bid in this now tightly held stock.


----------



## michael_selway (16 April 2009)

noirua said:


> Gloucester Coal seem to have missed out on the recent run up in coal companies stock prices. Or was it that they leaped on the takeover bid that may now be holding them back a bit.  Speculative now on a possible counter bid in this now tightly held stock.




Yeah could be interesting

*Earnings and Dividends Forecast (cents per share) 
2008 2009 2010 2011 
EPS 28.7 91.0 71.5 84.5 
DPS 21.0 28.5 25.5 62.5 *



> Date: 26/3/2009
> Author: Bryan Frith
> Source: The Australian --- Page: 18
> The Australian Takeovers Panel has made public the reasons for its rejection of the proposed merger of coal groups Gloucester and Whitehaven. The watchdog had ruled that the deal must be put to a stockholders' vote, due to the change of control involved, and it is now clear that the Panel thinks the agreement between the two was designed to thwart the takeover ambitions of major Gloucester investor Noble Group. The next step in the process may not occur until April 2009.










thx

MS


----------



## noirua (16 May 2009)

Noble Group have raised their bid again to $7.00 and this is looking close to a likely clinching offer for the company.  They may have to add a bit more to get close to the 90% holding they'll need.  Could still be worth waiting for another dollar.


----------



## sqwark7600 (16 May 2009)

noirua said:


> Noble Group have raised their bid again to $7.00 and this is looking close to a likely clinching offer for the company.  They may have to add a bit more to get close to the 90% holding they'll need.  Could still be worth waiting for another dollar.



IMO you do good work.
I think this is the deal price. Anyone like to have a stab at the probable price movement for Monday? 
My  is a $6.81 O, $6.93 H, $6.68 L and $6.79 C, 618K V. 

:sheep:

My opinion; your call. Life is your decisions in action.


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## noirua (18 May 2009)

Gloucester's independent directors have recommended the $7.00 a share bid by Noble Group:  http://www.thebull.com.au/articles_detail.php?id=3068


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## noirua (18 May 2009)

noirua said:


> Gloucester's independent directors have recommended the $7.00 a share bid by Noble Group:  http://www.thebull.com.au/articles_detail.php?id=3068



The announcement by GCL says that the merger with Whitehaven will not go ahead, however, Gloucester have raised their stake in WHC to 39.6% from 26%.


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## noirua (20 May 2009)

Osendo Pty ( subsidiary of Noble Group) have raised their stake in Gloucester Coal to 23.57%.  No news of any reduction or otherwise in the recent raised interest in Whitehaven by Gloucester.


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## pacestick (20 May 2009)

noirua said:


> The announcement by GCL says that the merger with Whitehaven will not go ahead, however, Gloucester have raised their stake in WHC to 39.6% from 26%.



which raises the question in my mind  if succesfull will noble sell off the WHC interest to a third party ,possibly felix may find it more appealing than a move on an overseas company although they would not have the majority position they have in other mines it is doubtfull if they could have pulled that off in India anyway


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## noirua (21 May 2009)

Noble Group have said their bid of $7.00 is final.  Until, of course, they make the next final bid.

Noble Group are now buying stock on market, leaving the final trade at $7.01. 

If all the non-director holders sit on their hands, then Noble will be forced to raise the offer.


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## pacestick (22 May 2009)

Credit Suisse has obtained a 5.5% shareholding in GCL  The  stake was purchased in overseas markets.


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## noirua (22 May 2009)

Noble Group now have 57.2% (46.7 million shares) and it looks as if they will eventually get the company.  So I have sold my stock which was my third venture, in buying four times since May 2008. Prices paid $11.80, $11.37, $10.80 and $3.80, and so I was bailed out with the $7.00 bid by Noble, with less of a loss - third time unlucky.


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## urgalzmine (24 May 2009)

noirua said:


> Noble Group now have 57.2% (46.7 million shares) and it looks as if they will eventually get the company.  So I have sold my stock which was my third venture, in buying four times since May 2008. Prices paid $11.80, $11.37, $10.80 and $3.80, and so I was bailed out with the $7.00 bid by Noble, with less of a loss - third time unlucky.





Dont be so quick to assume the sale is to go through apparently credit suise has 5.5% and another jap company has 5% and they may team up to block the sale. Apparently Noble need 90% to take over..


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## michael_selway (19 June 2009)

urgalzmine said:


> Dont be so quick to assume the sale is to go through apparently credit suise has 5.5% and another jap company has 5% and they may team up to block the sale. Apparently Noble need 90% to take over..




Hey does anyone know why GCL is falling? isnt Noble goign to take them over for $7 per share?

thx

MS

Earnings and Dividends Forecast (cents per share) 
2008 2009 2010 2011 
EPS 28.7 107.1 57.6 65.2 
DPS 21.0 29.5 25.0 51.5


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## sqwark7600 (21 June 2009)

michael_selway said:


> Hey does anyone know why GCL is falling? isnt Noble goign to take them over for $7 per share?
> 
> thx
> 
> ...



The Noble offer closed on 17Jun09 resulting in their owning 87% of shares;  thus they are no longer a buyer in the market. Price is now dependant on how the market views the takeover, the new board and what buyers will now pay.
rgds


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## noirua (9 July 2009)

urgalzmine said:


> Dont be so quick to assume the sale is to go through apparently credit suise has 5.5% and another jap company has 5% and they may team up to block the sale. Apparently Noble need 90% to take over..




Spot on  urgalzmine and blocked is exactly what the situation became, and I was wrong.  At least I got out at $7.01 even though it was still a loss.

The situation now could be stalemate for a very longtime indeed. I seem to remember a company in the UK, it might have been Selfridges, leaving the situation for over 30 years and finally buying up the outstanding stock. 
The story read something like this: Mrs T Wentworth refused an offer for her shares at £1 each some 32 years ago and has finally accepted £350 a share.

So GCL look a good hold if you can afford to wait.  Put them underneath the bottom drawer.


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## urgalzmine (9 July 2009)

noirua said:


> Spot on  urgalzmine and blocked is exactly what the situation became, and I was wrong.  At least I got out at $7.01 even though it was still a loss.
> 
> The situation now could be stalemate for a very longtime indeed. I seem to remember a company in the UK, it might have been Selfridges, leaving the situation for over 30 years and finally buying up the outstanding stock.
> The story read something like this: Mrs T Wentworth refused an offer for her shares at £1 each some 32 years ago and has finally accepted £350 a share.
> ...




hey Noirua,

You bought this stock on fundamentals, i would assume? Then the fundamentals are still there. 

GCL is tagetting 2.8million tonnes productiong of coking coal, they ahve reduced debt from $15.8million to $8.3 million. Eventhough their contracts with Japan has reduced by 60%. I would think they are still selling coking coal for $70 a tonne?


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## jayinoz (17 August 2009)

The fundamentals on this stock are extremely good. Particularily in the Energy materials sector.

I can not find many broker recommendations on this stock and the trade volume per day is very poor for the size of the company.

Does anyone know why after a takeover bid of $7 that this stock is 15% below this figure.

With a PE of 5.5 and yield of near 5% it is a very attractive buy. Fundamentals alone is not a reason to buy, as history has told me.

Does the Management have issues? Sales poor- lossing most of its Japanese contracts. After a little bit of a look they seem to have great fundamentals yet lack that sales ability to generate contracts.

It has been $12 in the last year and does not seem to be recovering alongside all the other coal companies, why is this so?

Cheers

Jay


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## Sulfuras (15 April 2010)

Been a while since anyone had anything to say about this stock. 

They are now trading at over $12. Noble is the majority stakeholder with over 80% of shares.

Looks like the EGM RE: the Macarthur takeover bid that was deferred until Monday the 19th will go ahead as planned and will probably result in a conversion of 0.84 Macarthur shares for ever 1 Gloucester share. This is positive news as Macarthur will be able to benefit from the PCI coal provided by Gloucester used to make steel. PCI coal is highly valued by steel makers because it burns more cleanly.

As of last week Macarthur has been the subject of a bidding war between Peadbody Energy, NHC and Xstrata on the condition that the Gloucester deal does not proceed. Xstrata has not made an official bid and is unlikely to make their move until after the EGM. Noble has recently announced to their home market in singapore that if this deal does not proceed they will offer remaining Gloucester shareholders $AU12.60 per share. However, I believe this offer is non-binding. Anyone have more info on this?

Can anyone shed some light on what will happen to the price of GCL shares if the proposal were to go ahead as planned? or if the proposal gets voted down at the meeting?


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## countryboy (15 April 2010)

not sure if this is correct but Noble did have a offer in to purchase the remaining 12 % of stock they dont have. Strange they stopped at 88% initialy as they only needed 2-3 % more to force the remaining 10 % to sell.

I bought in at $3.67 and exited at 9.20  anticpating Noble would want to wrap the remaining amount up . sure didnt expect Clouster to climb to $12 plus.
My eyes are now on other coal plays as we now have a number of predators out in the open.

position in cey and contemplating RIV and some explorers in QLD


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## Sulfuras (6 September 2010)

Anyone know when the Noble Offer of $12.60 will be finalised and when investors who accepted this offer will receive their cash? 

Did anyone take up the retail entitlement offer at $9.25? I see the shares are now trading under GCLN at about $9.15. I've yet to receive confirmation of my holding.

Any thoughts on the new recapitalised Gloucester Coal?


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## noirua (2 October 2010)

Sulfuras said:


> Anyone know when the Noble Offer of $12.60 will be finalised and when investors who accepted this offer will receive their cash?
> 
> Did anyone take up the retail entitlement offer at $9.25? I see the shares are now trading under GCLN at about $9.15. I've yet to receive confirmation of my holding.
> 
> Any thoughts on the new recapitalised Gloucester Coal?




A bit of a puzzle are Gloucester Coal in that it was almost taken over several times but isn't now afterall, or will it be. Many like the outfit longer term but speculation makes it difficult to work out how much the company is worth, going forward, depending what you think should be added to the mix.
Osendo Pty (BIDCO) hold 59.87% of GCL stock as of 1/10/10


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## noirua (5 October 2010)

noirua said:


> ...
> Osendo Pty (BIDCO) hold 59.87% of GCL stock as of 1/10/10




Osendo now have 70% of GCL but have had to extend the offer of $6.30 a share. An over-the-top bid this that the directors fell over themselves to recommend but some still want more.


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