# Free Webinar -- Dr. Howard Bandy -- Quantitative Technical Analysis



## howardbandy (5 August 2014)

Greetings --

I will be presenting a free webinar with material taken from my newest book -- Quantitative Technical Analysis. 
You are all invited.  Here is a link to the invitation:
http://hosted.verticalresponse.com/1061225/ec25631a42/521181691/1c52283158/

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Free Webinar -- Dr. Howard Bandy -- Quantitative Technical Analysis You are invited to a free webinar. Dr. Howard Bandy will be discussing his newest book.

The book is in preparation.  If everything goes well, publication is expected to be about October, 2014.

There is considerable new material in the book, particularly in three areas.

One is risk.  I show how to quantify personal tolerance for risk -- even plot it on a chart.  Then use risk tolerance to normalize trading system performance, determining the maximum safe position size, which I call safe-f, that will hold drawdown to within your risk tolerance. 

Two is objective function.  Following from risk normalization, a near-universal objective function, which I call CAR25, can be read from the distribution of trading results.

Three is position sizing.  Nothing about trading system is stationary.  Performance changes as the data changes and the model is unable to adjust completely.  In particular, position size is not stationary.  Management of trading is based on recent performance, which is the only indication of system health available.  A trading management technique I call dynamic position sizing adjusts position size trade-by-trade to maximize account growth while holding risk of drawdown within your personal tolerance.  When the system is beginning to fail, dynamic position sizing will reduce your the position size indicated for the next trade to zero, taking your system offline before bankrupting your trading account.

The book has its own website:
http://www.quantitativetechnicalanalysis.com/

There is a draft of the first chapter on the /book page.

Comments and suggestions are welcome.

Publication schedule updates will be posted on the book's page. 

Best regards,
Howard


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## ThingyMajiggy (5 August 2014)

howardbandy said:


> Greetings --
> 
> I will be presenting a free webinar with material taken from my newest book -- Quantitative Technical Analysis.
> You are all invited.  Here is a link to the invitation:
> ...




Interesting, will take a look for sure  Always been interested in Quant stuff


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## Wysiwyg (5 August 2014)

howardbandy said:


> Greetings --
> 
> I will be presenting a free webinar with material taken from my newest book -- Quantitative Technical Analysis.
> You are all invited.  Here is a link to the invitation:
> http://hosted.verticalresponse.com/1061225/ec25631a42/521181691/1c52283158/



Howard is that Thursday 0200 am Queensland time?


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## howardbandy (6 August 2014)

Hi Wysiwyg --

2:00 AM, Thursday.  Yes, I believe so.  The timing is great for the US and Europe, poor for Australia.

But, register anyway.  You will receive a link to a recording of the webinar you can listen to at your leisure.  

Those of you who are interested in quantitative techniques will like this webinar.  It discusses several key issues in trading system development and management.  Several (safe-f, CAR25, and dynamic position sizing) are based on my original research and are being presented to a large audience for the first time:
1.  Quantifying person risk tolerance.
2.  Quantifying risk in any trading system.
3.  Determining the maximum safe position size for the system, called safe-f.  It is almost always well less than using all available funds.
4.  Description of a near-universal objective function, called CAR25.
5.  Discussion of what is stationary and what is not.  Nothing about a trading system is stationary.
6.  Position size is not stationary.  The correct position size varies trade-by-trade.  Calculation of position size must not be a component of the model -- it must be done as a separate procedure.  I describe a procedure, called dynamic position sizing, for calculating it trade-by-trade.  Dynamic position sizing gives a metric for comparing systems and for determining whether a system should be taken offline.

Forty-plus years of research and experience in a one hour webinar.  What could be easier?

See you all there.

Best regards,
Howard


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## skc (6 August 2014)

Thanks for the invitation Dr. B! Look forward to listening to your webinar. 

(Probably the recording  )


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## Wysiwyg (6 August 2014)

Thank you Howard. I'll surely catch your webinar. Being 14 hours in advance of Eastern Time zone; I will post you the daily SPI200 results.


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## howardbandy (7 August 2014)

Wysiwyg said:


> Thank you Howard. I'll surely catch your webinar. Being 14 hours in advance of Eastern Time zone; I will post you the daily SPI200 results.




A time machine.  I can read tomorrow's newspaper today.


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## Wysiwyg (14 August 2014)

I registered with MTA 15 mins. before start to catch this webinar and e-mail reply says 



> You will receive login details for this event a few hours prior to the start time, on the day of the event!




This will be too late and I should have registered days ago apparently but hopefully I will get the recorded version.


EDIT : Checked e-mail again and link is there. All good.


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## howardbandy (14 August 2014)

Thanks to those of you who attended the presentation live -- 2 AM Melbourne and Sydney?

The presentation was recorded.  As soon as I receive a copy of the recording, I will post a link to it here.

Best regards,
Howard


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## qldfrog (14 August 2014)

Thanks Howard,
missed the 2Am presentation(Brisbane) but looking forward to the recording


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## howardbandy (14 August 2014)

Greetings all --

The webinar was sponsored by, and recorded by, the Market Technician's Association.  They have granted unrestricted access to the recording.  Here is a link to it:


http://media.mta.org/videos/2014/educational-web-series/howard-bandy/howard-bandy.html 



Best regards,
Howard


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## obiwanchernobyl (6 July 2017)

Hi Howard

Do you know if there is a formula, or other efficient way, for calculating safe-f other than by trial and error? 

Thanks in advance
Calen


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## howardbandy (7 July 2017)

obiwanchernobyl said:


> Hi Howard
> 
> Do you know if there is a formula, or other efficient way, for calculating safe-f other than by trial and error?
> 
> ...



Hi Calen --

There is no trial and error.  Beginning with the personal risk tolerance of the trader and the set of trades that are the best estimate of future performance, there is a unique value for safe-f and CAR25.  

There is a "root finding" operation involving in determining the value of safe-f.  The relationship can be approximated with a simple ratio to get close in one step.  Assume the trader's personal risk tolerance is $100,000, 2 years, 5% chance of 20% drawdown that I use consistently in the articles and videos.  

Given a set of trades, estimate risk of a 20% drawdown when trades are taken at fixed size, so only the percentage change is used -- no other position sizing.  That is, beginning-estimate-of-safe-f is 1.00.

Begin with the calculation of the risk of a 20% drawdown at f=1.00.  Say it is 35%.  First-estimate-of-safe-f will be close to 20% / 35%.  Safe-f will be near 0.57.

The relationship is not quite linear, but 0.57 might be close enough.  As each trade is completed, safe-f changes, going up as trades are good and going down as trades are poor.

Best,  Howard


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## Trav. (5 June 2020)

howardbandy said:


> Greetings all --
> 
> The webinar was sponsored by, and recorded by, the Market Technician's Association.  They have granted unrestricted access to the recording.  Here is a link to it:
> http://media.mta.org/videos/2014/educational-web-series/howard-bandy/howard-bandy.html




I just watched this presentation and I found it worth while, there is definitely some gold hidden away on this forum.


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## qldfrog (6 June 2020)

Howard is an expert in his field and i am just beginning to comprehend the issues 
he really deserves our highest respects as not only are his material prime content but Howard has always shared them in this forum without reserve.
A thank you from the heart
PS i am not very good at expressing gratitude


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## tech/a (6 June 2020)

qldfrog said:


> Howard is an expert in his field and i am just beginning to comprehend the issues
> he really deserves our highest respects as not only are his material prime content but Howard has always shared them in this forum without reserve.
> A thank you from the heart
> PS i am not very good at expressing gratitude




well deserved QF 

Unfortunately Howard gave up posting here 
He was made less than welcome by muppets who 
Had very little comprehension of his work.

ASF have lost countless experts over the years with narrow minded 
Often veiled attacks. He just gave up.

Pity —— the forum has lost a onetime opportunity to be filled with
People not seen in any one common place.


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## qldfrog (6 June 2020)

Thanks Tech/a
Was not aware of the details but not surprise by how narrow minded some are, ended up using ignore.
Many people have an opinion, do not actually build one so facts do not matter and as they have the truth, nothing else matter

You can see this in divisive issues like global warming, politics, lately the metoo and black death by police, but sadly as well it seems in even technical fields like TA.

Sad world ruled by ignorants and brain deads.
repeating is not knowledge


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## tech/a (6 June 2020)

The ignore feature is excellent.
used it a few times. Now with only one
long term resident! Cuts out noise.

Im sure Im on a few!


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## frugal.rock (6 June 2020)

If you are on ignore Duck, the ignorance is rife.
When you post, I listen. 
Don't think I have found anything you have posted, that I disagreed with.

Probably didn't like some, but your calling for an explanation of opinions has made me stop and think, on more than one occasion.
Hopefully Dr Bandy may return?


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## qldfrog (6 June 2020)

tech/a said:


> The ignore feature is excellent.
> used it a few times. Now with only one
> long term resident! Cuts out noise.
> 
> Im sure Im on a few!



I actually often disagree with mr Tech/a but i i val his experience and knowledge and if in disagreement, i always challenge myself to either stick to my view, or change if i am found faulty.
Great to not always agree but have proper polite challenge.


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## Joe90 (6 June 2020)

It annoyed me intensely when those bogan dyckheads drove Dr Howard away, I've trawled that particular thread 3-4 times for the content. He was such a valuable contributor. Oh for more wisdom and insight from minwa, Trembling Hands, CanOZ and the like. At least we still have peter2, Captain Black and tech/a, all still here.


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## Antiwarclan (1 July 2020)

Trav. said:


> I just watched this presentation and I found it worth while, there is definitely some gold hidden away on this forum.



 oh man, the link is not working. I came to the party too late i suppose. Also, when i click the link to quantitativeanalysis.com and it brings me to some chinese website!


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## Trav. (1 July 2020)

Antiwarclan said:


> oh man, the link is not working. I came to the party too late i suppose. Also, when i click the link to quantitativeanalysis.com and it brings me to some chinese website!




@Antiwarclan same here mate.

I am not sure why they have taken it down, but check out Bandy's website and he has a number of videos that are worth watching ( probably the same info info anyway)

http://blueowlpress.com/videos/


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## Antiwarclan (1 July 2020)

Trav. said:


> @Antiwarclan same here mate.
> 
> I am not sure why they have taken it down, but check out Bandy's website and he has a number of videos that are worth watching ( probably the same info info anyway)
> 
> http://blueowlpress.com/videos/




Thanks heaps @trav! I will check out the website.


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