# AUD



## money tree

AUD daily trendline resistance @ 8041

hit that today & bounced off.

trendline support is 7750 on daily.

Im shorter than a dwarf with no legs


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## BSD

*Re: AUD is a short*

If Aussie interest rates go-up next RBA meeting you may have a new ass to match your new legs!

What currency are you short against ?

USD, EUR, JPY?

Purely on a chart or do you have some actual reasoning?


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## money tree

*Re: AUD is a short*

Well since AUDUSD is the only pair currently priced around 8041, it should be self explanatory.   

As I said, the chart is the reason. 

Im sure the long term target is 82 or so, but you would have to be brave to say AUD will never see sub 80 again.....


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## BSD

*Re: AUD is a short*

I should add I have no view!

Currency prediction (particularly in the short term) is voodoo in my view and impossible to predict.


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## money tree

*Re: AUD is a short*

impossible eh?

well, do a bit of research. I have a 100% success rate on my forex calls posted here. voodoo indeed


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## BSD

*Re: AUD is a short*



			
				money tree said:
			
		

> impossible eh?
> 
> well, do a bit of research. I have a 100% success rate on my forex calls posted here. voodoo indeed




You shouldnt be posting on here then pal; you should be on a 120ft yacht in the Bahamas trading *my * money.  

Why don't you work for a hedge fund with your amazing abilities?

2% and 20% baby- think of the cashflow stemming from a hot hand of 100% correct calls on the AUDUSD.

Send me your trading history of accurately 'picking the currency' - do it for another 50 calls and I will send you millions of dollars to manage on behalf of my clients and myself.

A PM will be fine. 

Thanks


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## surfingman

*Re: AUD is a short*



			
				BSD said:
			
		

> You shouldnt be posting on here then pal; you should be on a 120ft yacht in the Bahamas trading *my * money.
> 
> Why don't you work for a hedge fund with your amazing abilities?
> 
> 2% and 20% baby- think of the cashflow stemming from a hot hand of 100% correct calls on the AUDUSD
> 
> Send me your trading history of accurately 'picking the currency' - do it for another 50 calls and I will send you millions of dollars to manage on behalf of my clients and myself
> 
> A PM will be fine.
> 
> Thanks


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## CanOz

*Re: AUD is a short*



			
				BSD said:
			
		

> I should add I have no view!
> 
> Currency prediction (particularly in the short term) is voodoo in my view and impossible to predict.




C'mon BSD, what are your experiences with this and why do you say that?

Cheers,


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## Dr Doom

*Re: AUD is a short*



			
				money tree said:
			
		

> AUD daily trendline resistance @ 8041
> 
> hit that today & bounced off.
> 
> trendline support is 7750 on daily.
> 
> Im shorter than a dwarf with no legs




MT, what's your shorting range? It's currently 8015, so what price would you not go short ie missed opportunity? Do you have a close out figure?


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## Naif

*Re: AUD is a short*

i do agree with you money tree..
audusd is bearish ( correction ) for the short term..
i think it`s time now for USD to show some strength against all currencies...
i think Bernanke got some important words for USD ..

lets see what will happen..

cheers


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## BSD

*Re: AUD is a short*



			
				CanOz said:
			
		

> C'mon BSD, what are your experiences with this and why do you say that?
> 
> Cheers,




Predicting the earnings of BHP requires a 'guess' of about 25 inputs - a BHP analyst has a reasonable chance of being right on an earnings forecast

Predicting the sentiment guiding the PE applicable to BHP is pure guestimation - being an equity trader (guesser) is therefore hard. 


Predicting the forces applicable to a currency requires a 'guess' of about 1000 real variables (many countries, many relationships) and then an equally impossible 'guess' of sentiment. 

Punting the AUD for a number of years I quickly worked out that equities and bonds were far easier than currencies - let alone horses and football. 

Most currency analysts will tell you they are essentially BS merchants that offer clients 'stories' and not 'predictions'. 

Name three well-known currency analysts....

Warren Buffett and about a million goldbugs/USD doomsayers have shot their cocks-off over the last five years despite excellent fundamental reasoning

Anyone who claims anywhere near 100% accuracy from calls on currency can happily send me their numbers by PM and I will gladly contact them regarding an equity injection

I can give you 'my story' on the AUDUSD in the next month but it is probably as relevant as my cabby's or my ironing lady's view on the AUDUSD

My current view is that relative interest rates are the greatest driver of currencies - despite relative risks (previously represented by CADs, trade deficits, equity flows, GDP etc) - hence my view that if the RBA raise rates the AUD will rocket, but who can call that accurately in the short term?


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## CanOz

*Re: AUD is a short*



			
				BSD said:
			
		

> Predicting the earnings of BHP requires a 'guess' of about 25 inputs - a BHP analyst has a reasonable chance of being right on an earnings forecast
> 
> Predicting the sentiment guiding the PE applicable to BHP is pure guestimation - being an equity trader (guesser) is therefore hard.
> 
> 
> Predicting the forces applicable to a currency requires a 'guess' of about 1000 real variables (many countries, many relationships) and then an equally impossible 'guess' of sentiment.
> 
> Punting the AUD for a number of years I quickly worked out that equities and bonds were far easier than currencies - let alone horses and football.
> 
> Most currency analysts will tell you they are essentially BS merchants that offer clients 'stories' and not 'predictions'.
> 
> Name three well-known currency analysts....
> 
> Warren Buffett and about a million goldbugs/USD doomsayers have shot their cocks-off over the last five years despite excellent fundamental reasoning
> 
> Anyone who claims anywhere near 100% accuracy from calls on currency can happily send me their numbers by PM and I will gladly contact them regarding an equity injection
> 
> I can give you 'my story' on the AUDUSD in the next month but it is probably as relevant as my cabby's or my ironing lady's view on the AUDUSD
> 
> My current view is that relative interest rates are the greatest driver of currencies - despite relative risks (previously represented by CADs, trade deficits, equity flows, GDP etc) - hence my view that if the RBA raise rates the AUD will rocket, but who can call that accurately in the short term?




Ever watch a tick chart? Uncanny how it bounces off those trend lines!

Cheers,


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## BSD

*Re: AUD is a short*



			
				CanOz said:
			
		

> Ever watch a tick chart? Uncanny how it bounces off those trend lines!
> 
> Cheers,




Yeah - sack the thousands of analysts, traders and central bankers.

Replace them with chartists focussed on 'tick charts'.

Send me the results and I will invest.


You guys aren't Robinson Crusoe here.


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## Naif

*Re: AUD is a short*



			
				BSD said:
			
		

> Yeah - sack the thousands of analysts, traders and central bankers.
> 
> Replace them with chartists focussed on 'tick charts'.
> 
> Send me the results and I will invest.
> 
> 
> You guys aren't Robinson Crusoe here.




BSD we are here to share analysis and i hope you will share us ur insights..  

I agree with you that intrest rates playing important rules these days and all the reports say that the FED going to leave the intrest rate constant but they say that Bernanke will mention about the real estates and that would mean to traders that the fed soon will decrease the intrest rate, but from my experince during the last years i found that they always (greenspan)try to mention some positiove words to save the american dollar when its getting weaker.   In the last two weeks dollar were gettin weaker and it hitted 8041 AUDUSD and 1.3338 EURUSD and that tells me that commercials and large speculators want to close their long positions and short for a correction for at least 250 pips for eurusd and maybe 100 - 150 for AUDUSD..


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## wayneL

*Re: AUD is a short*

AUD hitting new highs after the FOMC announcement. Wait till the RBA raises.

Parity by next year anyone?


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## wayneL

*Re: AUD is a short*

Just touched 80.8

Can we get a big number move (1c) like the good old days?


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## money tree

*Re: AUD is a short*

well its now broken out on the daily, alas I was wrong.

we may be in a new era


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## wayneL

*Re: AUD is a short*



			
				money tree said:
			
		

> well its now broken out on the daily, alas I was wrong.
> 
> we may be in a new era




I think it's more to do with the USD being FUBAR.

AUD is not looking as flash against EUR GBP et al


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## money tree

*Re: AUD is a short*

eur gbp nzd et al are irrelevant.

relationship between AUD & USD in question.

the chart has spoken.

it matters not whether AUD is strong or USD is weak as the cause. 

AUDUSD just became untradeable. it may take months for a new pattern to emerge.

trading off daily trendlines is a high probability trade, but not foolproof.


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## wayneL

*Re: AUD is a short*

USDX FWIW (It told a different story)


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## nizar

*Re: AUD is a short*



			
				wayneL said:
			
		

> AUD hitting new highs after the FOMC announcement. Wait till the RBA raises.
> 
> Parity by next year anyone?




Wayne,

Dont u think maybe a rate rise by RBA is abit factored in?
Custom House (the people we deal with) think so.


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## CanOz

*Re: AUD is a short*



			
				money tree said:
			
		

> AUD daily trendline resistance @ 8041
> 
> hit that today & bounced off.
> 
> trendline support is 7750 on daily.
> 
> Im shorter than a dwarf with no legs




Curious how this played out for you MT, not looking to criticise but genuinly interested. Have had the chart up on screen all day.

Cheers,


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## money tree

*Re: AUD is a short*

still short, position wasnt too large but still a tad painful. 

chart looks toppy now but what do I know   

I didnt bother setting a stop since aud was heading down when I went to bed. But had I done it anyway, the slippage may have killed me since it was such a quick move. 

I dont mind holding for a while.

RBA unlikely to raise (though a rise is priced in) because:

- inflation is low
- stronger dollar hurts exporters more
- trade deficit doesnt need help to grow
- election year


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## Smurf1976

*Re: AUD is a short*



			
				nizar said:
			
		

> Wayne,
> 
> Dont u think maybe a rate rise by RBA is abit factored in?
> Custom House (the people we deal with) think so.



I'm not Wayne but I note that the markets do seem to be pricing in a 25 basis point rise by the RBA soon and have moved in that direction quite a bit in the past few days.


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## wayneL

*Re: AUD is a short*



			
				nizar said:
			
		

> Wayne,
> 
> Dont u think maybe a rate rise by RBA is abit factored in?
> Custom House (the people we deal with) think so.



Well, a hold by FOMC was factored in... didn't stop a reaction on announcement.


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## ducati916

*Re: AUD is a short*



			
				money tree said:
			
		

> eur gbp nzd et al are irrelevant.
> 
> relationship between AUD & USD in question.
> 
> the chart has spoken.
> 
> it matters not whether AUD is strong or USD is weak as the cause.




What nonsense. All currencies are *relative* based on their fundamentals, thus an arbitrage will be set up if the relationships are violated through any of the currencies moving from relative parity.

Actually I agree with old BSD here, currencies are a very dangerous game for retail traders, the variables are just too many to realistically keep track of.
I guess you won't be seeing his money.

jog on
d998


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## >Apocalypto<

*Re: AUD is a short*



			
				money tree said:
			
		

> impossible eh?
> 
> well, do a bit of research. I have a 100% success rate on my forex calls posted here. voodoo indeed




100% wake up man you're dreaming   

so the other 99 you dont post huh ha ha ha

r u worth 1 billion dollars yet?


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## >Apocalypto<

*Re: AUD is a short*



			
				ducati916 said:
			
		

> What nonsense. All currencies are *relative* based on their fundamentals, thus an arbitrage will be set up if the relationships are violated through any of the currencies moving from relative parity.
> 
> Actually I agree with old BSD here, currencies are a very dangerous game for retail traders, the variables are just too many to realistically keep track of.
> I guess you won't be seeing his money.
> 
> jog on
> d998




Very much agree that is why I don't touch FOREX too many unseen fundamentals can change the chart quicker than you can log in!


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## wayneL

*Re: AUD is a short*

I don't know whether this is the right thread for this, but as FOMC does affect currencies...:



> http://globaleconomicanalysis.blogspot.com/2007/03/near-panic-at-fed.html
> 
> Mish's FOMC Announcement Translation
> 
> We are unanimously scared half to death by the implosion in housing, defaults and foreclosures. Our biggest fear is a recession. A jobs slowdown would worsen that situation dramatically.
> 
> We are also somewhat concerned by rising food prices but those prices are soaring primarily because of Bush administration policy handouts to farmers and the ethanol industry. Economic policy can not really cure problems caused by poor administrative decisions. It would be a mistake to try.
> 
> Because of blatantly bad policy decisions by us, notably Greenspan's praise of subprime lenders, promotion of ARMs at the exact worst time for the consumer, support of toxic loans, and most importantly our previous decision to slash interest rates to 1%, we created the current property bubble. We now admit we did that on purpose. We just never expected the bubble to get this out of hand. We created the housing bubble on purpose to bail out banks that were at risk due to poor loans made to the dotcom industry. Now to bail out the housing industry we feel compelled move to a more neutral stance.
> 
> With consumer debt levels where they are, we are going to do everything in our power to keep asset prices high. If we could, we would even reinflate the housing bubble. But that gig is up unfortunately and with it any real hope for jobs expansion.
> 
> Now is not the time for a recession. We are in this fix because there is never a time for a recession. We hope to forestall recessions forever because if we can't all hell will break loose on the downside.


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## wayneL

*Re: AUD is a short*


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## Kauri

*Re: AUD is a short*



			
				wayneL said:
			
		

> I don't know whether this is the right thread for this, but as FOMC does affect currencies...:




   Love the way that it is not what is said during the address but the interpretation of words and phrases used, the tone, and what is hidden but implied betwen the lines..     I dread the day that Bernanke inadvertantely breaks wind mid-speech, the resultant crash would make 29 look totally insignificant..


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## wayneL

*Re: AUD is a short*


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## wayneL

*Re: AUD is a short*



			
				Kauri said:
			
		

> Love the way that it is not what is said during the address but the interpretation of words and phrases used, the tone, and what is hidden but implied betwen the lines..     I dread the day that Bernanke inadvertantely breaks wind mid-speech, the resultant crash would make 29 look totally insignificant..



Thanks Kauri! I can now no longer get the image of that man farting out of my mind LOL


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## wayneL

*Re: AUD is a short*

Barry Ritholtz offers up a more truthful version of the FOMC statement.



> Of course, they can't say what they really think. The Fed knows how important confidence is, and they do not want to do anything to discourage consumer sentiment or spook the psychology of the markets.
> 
> If they were unconcerned with those issues, the statement might look more like this:
> 
> "The Federal Open Market Committee decided today to keep its target for the federal funds rate at 5-1/4 percent.
> 
> Recent indicators have been much worse than what we were hoping for:  Housing is a bigger mess than we anticipated; Business Capex is heading south, as are durable goods.  Retail sales have been punk for 3 months running, (and what' with those excuses from the retailers? Too hot! Too cold! Lunar eclipse!) Don't even ask about the Automakers. We expect the economy is likely to continue to soften until it slips to about a 1.5% GDP.
> 
> Even worse, recent readings on inflation have been elevated. We were hoping that inflation pressures would moderate as the economy stabilized, but no such luck.
> 
> In these circumstances, the Committee's predominant policy concern is that we have painted ourselves into a corner, and we are running out of options. On the one hand, Inflation remains an ongoing concern, as medical costs, food, and energy remain problematic. On the other hand, it is apparent that growth is cooling rapidly. Housing has  flipped from a net positive for consumers and job seekers to a net negative.
> 
> All told, we are running out of options until one or the other of these gets much much worse. Future policy adjustments, therefore, will depend on the evolution of the outlook for both inflation and economic growth, as implied by incoming information. As noted above, if GDP slips below 1.5%, we will be shifting our bias towards easing. Appreciably worse that 1.5%, and we will have to act on rates to prevent a recession -- inflation be damned.
> 
> On a final note, the FOMC has taken up a collection, and as a retirement present, we are sending former Chairman Alan Greenspan to a lovely spa on Fiji Island for the foreseeable future. Since there are no satellite feeds, internet connections or any off island communications at all, the CHairman can thank us when he returns -- preferably, around December 2008.​
> Don't hold your breath waiting for that dose of reality . . .


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## money tree

*Re: AUD is a short*

How amusing.

Those who either failed as a forex trader or who lack the balls to even try it are preaching about how silly the rest of us are. 

Its very easy to shut your mouth when someone is making good calls then stand up and shout "haha idiot" when they make a bad call. Easier still to lack the courage to post your own calls.

Forex trading wipes the floor with equities. I've posted why many times. ignorance is bliss I guess.


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## It's Snake Pliskin

*Re: AUD is a short*



			
				money tree said:
			
		

> How amusing.
> 
> Those who either failed as a forex trader or who lack the balls to even try it are preaching about how silly the rest of us are.
> 
> Its very easy to shut your mouth when someone is making good calls then stand up and shout "haha idiot" when they make a bad call. Easier still to lack the courage to post your own calls.
> 
> Forex trading wipes the floor with equities. I've posted why many times. ignorance is bliss I guess.




I agree,
I am sick of CFD providers not allowing shorts or GSL's on certain stocks. Forex is different.


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## ducati916

*Re: AUD is a short*



			
				money tree said:
			
		

> How amusing.
> 
> Those who either failed as a forex trader or who lack the balls to even try it are preaching about how silly the rest of us are.
> 
> Its very easy to shut your mouth when someone is making good calls then stand up and shout "haha idiot" when they make a bad call. Easier still to lack the courage to post your own calls.
> 
> Forex trading wipes the floor with equities. I've posted why many times. ignorance is bliss I guess.




Nonsense.
It is simply being pointed out that you simply don't understand the relationships and technicalities of the market you trade.

Others do not trade it because they understand the inherent difficulties of the Fx market.

jog on
d998


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## It's Snake Pliskin

*Re: AUD is a short*



			
				ducati916 said:
			
		

> Others do not trade it because they understand the inherent difficulties of the Fx market.
> 
> jog on
> d998




Duc,

Would you care to list the inherent difficulties for me please?  

Snake


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## money tree

*Re: AUD is a short*



			
				ducati916 said:
			
		

> Nonsense.
> It is simply being pointed out that you simply don't understand the relationships and technicalities of the market you trade.
> 
> Others do not trade it because they understand the inherent difficulties of the Fx market.
> 
> jog on
> d998




This is an arrogant and condescending assumption.

I scored a "high distinction" in my Securities Institute Economics exam. So Im well aware of what drives these markets, which is why I have been able to make so many great calls. Im not sure what qualifies a "doorman" as an expert, perhaps you could enlighten us?

If you dont understand forex then leave it for those who do. This forum is to teach people about forex, and we dont need clowns whining "ooh its too hard" 

Do us all a favour and research my past posts on forex eh?

success is the best revenge


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## money tree

*Re: AUD is a short*

double top on 30 min chart, 8090 

any INTELLIGENT thoughts?


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## >Apocalypto<

*Re: AUD is a short*



			
				money tree said:
			
		

> double top on 30 min chart, 8090
> 
> any INTELLIGENT thoughts?




Money tree

Well done on the HD

I have no idea about Forex but all I can say is whatever way your trading is working then great keep it up and dont bother arguing cuz why argure if your living the fruits of your labour!

But only thing really made me laugh was when you posted I am 100% right on all my direction posts! Then couple posts down you said o I made a mistake lol that kind of screws your credibility!

Making such wild calls as Forex wipes the floor with shares is a good one how can you say that right now I think this bull market would have made alot of share traders a lot my more in the last four years then FOREX. But most likely I bet I am wrong cuz it all comes down to the trader!

I know for a fact some very smart traders have made a killing off the ASX in the last 4 years, I am talking retirement stuff! Lots of zeros.

Happy trading Brother


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## ducati916

*Re: AUD is a short*



			
				money tree said:
			
		

> This is an arrogant and condescending assumption.
> 
> I scored a "high distinction" in my Securities Institute Economics exam. So Im well aware of what drives these markets, which is why I have been able to make so many great calls. Im not sure what qualifies a "doorman" as an expert, perhaps you could enlighten us?
> 
> If you dont understand forex then leave it for those who do. This forum is to teach people about forex, and we dont need clowns whining "ooh its too hard"
> 
> Do us all a favour and research my past posts on forex eh?
> 
> success is the best revenge




Obviously you haven't got a clue my friend, the evidence resides within your own post viz.



> eur gbp nzd et al are irrelevant.
> relationship between AUD & USD in question.




As previously detailed, due to arbitrage, other currencies on a relative basis are very important. That you are either unaware, or perversely ignorant simply highlights how little you understand.

Based on the above, I think I can probably pass on researching any further nonsense from you.

jog on
d998


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## It's Snake Pliskin

*Re: AUD is a short*



			
				It's Snake Pliskin said:
			
		

> Duc,
> 
> Would you care to list the inherent difficulties for me please?
> 
> Snake




Duc,
When you are done cutting Money tree up maybe you could answer the question.


----------



## money tree

*Re: AUD is a short*

Its ok snake, he is a little busy opening doors for people. 

Wasnt there an old cliche about taking advice from busboys/doormen/shoeshine boys?


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## It's Snake Pliskin

*Re: AUD is a short*



			
				money tree said:
			
		

> Its ok snake, he is a little busy opening doors for people.
> 
> Wasnt there an old cliche about taking advice from busboys/doormen/shoeshine boys?




Moneytree,
I was interested to see what the clown had to say. Clearly he is a clown. Etablished on his own behalf. Sorting the real from the bogus.
Happy trading


----------



## >Apocalypto<

*Re: AUD is a short*



			
				money tree said:
			
		

> Its ok snake, he is a little busy opening doors for people.
> 
> Wasnt there an old cliche about taking advice from busboys/doormen/shoeshine boys?




ha ha ha 

Yeh there is and it's do the opposite!

But I think this getting way to harsh!


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## money tree

*Re: AUD is a short*



ducati916 said:


> As previously detailed, due to arbitrage, other currencies on a relative basis are very important. That you are either unaware, or perversely ignorant simply highlights how little you understand.




Golly gosh, all technical analysts are perversely ignorant? We CHOOSE to ignore the NOISE of the market. Ignorance is bliss  

You CANNOT as a trader, reasonably be expected to absorb and analyse ALL data past, present & future while also abiding by the laws of technical analysis. Regardless of whether its equities or FX or commodities et al. Either you have a mechanical system or a discretionary one. I use mechanical rules for entries & exits, however I sometimes predict where the market will move based on my knowledge of economics. 

*PRICE ACTION IS GOD*

It appears it is YOU who is perversely ignorant. 



Frank D said:


> People need to simplify their trading analysis and just look at the price action, it will make much more sense than trying to think too much.....
> 
> https://www.aussiestockforums.com/forums/showthread.php?p=137068#post137068
> 
> Regards,
> Frank Dilernia




Crikey, Frank said something that I can understand without a decryption device


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## wayneL

*Re: AUD is a short*

AUD just blew through 81c on stinking US housing numbers.


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## CanOz

*Re: AUD is a short*



wayneL said:


> AUD just blew through 81c on stinking US housing numbers.




Just sitting on the high now, waiting......


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## money tree

*Re: AUD is a short*

guppy on cnbc this morn said 82 top or at worst 82.5

will reload there


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## doctorj

*Re: AUD is a short*

I guess it depends on your time from.  Kahuna1 is someone who's commentary I've come to like.  Whilst I don't agree with all of it, he makes a lot of good points in this post.



			
				kahuna1 said:
			
		

> this market .... 2 weeks ago we were all having kittens and the daily moves looked like a child playing with a crayon ..... and from the depths or depression, oh no its the end of the world we go to the other extreme.
> 
> Obviously the lows and supports are not even a question and yep they held. Now its the top and the 5950 level took them a few times to get through but here we are going for the all time high. Just amazing.
> 
> Little surprised about this till I looked and my pet BHP with the buyback going off and super funds scrambling to buy the stock they sold into the buyback certainly a large factor. Telstra back near its high as though it didn't have one political party announce they would fund fibre to the node Internet out of the future fund and it was good for it ?
> 
> No chance we are going to raise rates ? Even when the RBA tells up we are leaning that way ? .... and even more amusing is my long held belief the Ozzie over the next couple of years goes up up up and breaks the 1990 is highs of 90 cents and there isn't a thing we can do. So lets raise rates today and drop them in 9 months and 87 cent ozzie ?
> 
> Not to be a downer, certainly it was clear we were going to break the 5925-50 resistance on the third attempt on the ASX 200. Next level is the all time high 6,052 ish but personally sceptical of the quality of this rally .... yes I love BHP longer term and some of the other exporters but remain concerned about the currency as the balancing factor in the equation. So with the Ozzie at 81 cents not seen since 1996 ... and the high then 82 cents
> or the high in 1990 when we had " the recession we had to have" from Mr keating and it hit 84 cents .... it remains a concern to me at least on the exporting side longer term.
> 
> The big cash-flows of the export expansion boom are yet to hit and not till 2008 do we see the larger ones come on line and from then its a steady flow which will hit our current account. After hitting a negative 50 billion per annum and it all added to our foreign debt as we balance our external accounts I suspect in 2010-11 us to have a balanced account and from there it to turn into the black and us pay off our debt.
> 
> Of course this depends on two things and one view in some ways contradicts the other.
> 
> Commodity prices remain firm as time goes on, China and its expansion is the large factor in this accounting for 66% of the estimated expansion in demand for iron ore out to 2011.
> This expansion in demand globally means it will need the Iron ore export market to grow by 60% by then as a percentage of what Australia exports right now its 100% growth.
> Every other commodity is tied into this in one shape or another and clearly China with 10.7% growth right now and much higher internal numbers like retail sales up 18% ect ect ... I have very few qualms about it keeping going and even if it moderates as already expected to 8% growth the picture will remain 100% unchanged. I am frankly not even sure they can slow it to 8% so the projected demand numbers worked on that assumption are in fact if anything too low.
> 
> Iron ore is the key along with China. Certainly some metals may and I mean may come off as supply comes on line but with the demands on the export market which is only less than 50% of the global supply in most cases .... its needing to keep up with a growth rate of 15% per annum which certainly looks set for the next 4 years if not the next 10 years.
> 
> Having looked at various estimates from economists over the weekend, we have at one end the totally bizarre ones from Abare which is the government forecaster who has been the worst caller ever, and its still going for the prize. ABARE basically estimates across the board a 30% fall in commodity prices out to 2011-12. Just amazing and idiotic on the main.
> Most market economists all sitting one way as well but the 15-20% range for the same time period seems to be the call. Me I do see some falls with ones which have flown on very tight supply and as some more supply comes on line yes they will come back but overall I am not even sure they are even going to come off. At worst as a basket I suspect only slightly.
> 
> Thing for me its just like China. The bears are talking and have already factored Chinese growth slowing to 8% by 2008 , and even using these numbers the global steel production is estimated to go up a whopping 21% by 2011. Thats the planet as a whole !! Lets just say they are correct about China and it does slow somewhat .... the outlook for steel is based already on these numbers. I remain less than convinced it even happens but its an aside.
> 
> A 21% growth in production and conversely the growth in various other demand for metals is supposed to remain at half those rates according to various papers I read. Uniformly they agree on iron ore and steel .... just ask yourself what its used for and what will it be used for ? With 100 million new Chinese cars on the road ... I always thought they each had 40lbs of copper wiring in them, new construction wont they need copper wiring ? To make the steels I thought the ingredients were Iron ore, coking coal, zinc, Nickel and various other speciality metals like molly. So when I see say iron ore demand going up by 21% and copper projected demand going up by 6% or Nickel by 10% it just makes me wonder. wonder what the new cars will run on because certainly the oil demand numbers don't seem to reflect it.
> 
> Basically the basket is all tied together. Whilst copper not used in steel manufacture or oil, its the end products that will be using it.
> 
> Everyone agrees Iron ore demand will go this way, and remain firm yet when I look at projections for demand even in products used directly in steel manufacture like coking coal or nickel they seem shall we say interesting. Coking coal with new PCI ... pulverized coal injection methods into the blast furnace will require less of the product than before but still the overall numbers do not add up at all. One cannot make steel without coking coal, its impossible frankly.
> 
> So with all this in mind I cant see the prices going backwards too far. That's in USD.
> 
> Went though our own cash-flows and projects coming on line with this before ..... a few posts ago. For Australia a lot depends on the LNG projects post 2011 coming on line how black our surplus looks out there. When does Browse from WPL or Sunrise WPL or Scarbourough Exxon/BHP or Gorgon Chevron/Exxon/Shell finally become producers ?
> The shameful record of the operators all foreign controlled mind you is absurd.
> Gorgon the largest development projects with enough oil equivalent was discovered in 1981 and was planned to come on line in 2003 ... that was the scheduled date in 1999. So 8years later Chevron is now talking 2017 .... 14 years later yet only 9 years has passed.
> In the last 4 years the price on LNG has tripled ... and a new record just set at US$11- MBTU was set weeks ago.
> 
> Anyhow .... they will happen either way .... eventually and are all very long term projects with an average of 25 years of reserves on them.



Continued in next post...


----------



## doctorj

*Re: AUD is a short*

...continued from previous



			
				kahuna1 said:
			
		

> The one thing and release valve I have felt for a long time has been the currency. Right now I read the paper and all they talk about is interest rates and that's why the ozzie was here. Two weeks ago at 78 cents not a single person interviewed was of the view it went up and all talking it being at or near the peak. Still the same.
> 
> I disagree and will spell it out .... and have been for some time on this thread. Our current account deficit which has been running at minus 50 billion per annum will correct by 2011 as long as commodity prices remain roughly where we are. The expansion projects already nearly completed and coming on line at a furious pace in 2008 and beyond will take care of this. Even last week BHP announced another expansion in its iron ore capacity, its well aware of the demand outlook and its a race to keep up with things. Whilst ignored and yawned at by most a 25 million ton capacity increase is around 1.7% addition to our total export side for the nation. That's including everything ..... in one stroke up goes the export side 1.7% and it already looks bloody rosy unless you are from ABARE and predict oil will be US$48 in 2012 or Zinc and Nickle will halve in price and virtually every other commodity will be a blanket 30% lower in 4 years.
> 
> Just ask yourself if demand goes up by 60% on the export side which by the way global commodity prices are set off, would you call a 30% fall in prices ? Remeber whilst gloabl steel production is only going up 21% the export side to supply it needs to expand at 3 times the rate. Personally its the most idiotic thing I have ever seen in my life. I am NOT suggesting we see massive further advances from levels right now, we I suspect have seen the bulk of the rises already with prices here and now .... but I cannot see what ABARE is calling and doubt even the market economists calls of 15-20%. Honestly think its like jumping in front of a freight train going 160 km an hour and going stop !!
> 
> Now here is the contradiction, unlike virtually all forecasters I see something else happening with the currency as we go forward. Being a naughty old FX boy from the 1980's and having an economics's degree I am well aware of the dogma taught in universities about forecasting future prices. In the case of FX whilst I spent 12 hours in the office and then doing it part time I was forced to parrot this view if I wanted to pass. It if anything was worse with the masters course this was drummed in parrot like even harder. The forward rate is where everyone expects the currency to be in the future. Its why one virtually without exception will never see an analyst calling higher prices because he bases his view off one thing which has nothing to do with the other.
> 
> In the case of any commodity its usually a 3 year average or for my mates at ABARE with their US$50- 2010 oil call its a 5 or 7 year average. Since oil futures are US$67- for 2010 delivery hence we see the idiotic call being 34% below where the actual forward market is trading. It may go there but calling copper at 84 cents verses a spot of US$3- right now and even a forward well above this ... you get the idea.
> 
> Some economist not like this but the lazy ones are and rarely will one ever see the price estimation being higher than the current price rather than lower. Its just not done.
> Apologies to the very few decent forecasting economist's ... but there are few around.
> 
> With the currency same thing. Always and I mean always its lower than the current spot price when taken as a group with the exception of the really lazy ones who use 5 year or 7 year averages like ABARE. The reason is a very simple one. Australia having a net foreign debt for 35 odd years has needed to attract foreign capital to the country and as such has needed to have an interest rate higher than the US to attract it. As such our rates being higher than the US... the interest rate differential has always with a few short lived exceptions ... has meant one could buy AUD at a discount forward against the US.
> As such economists either traditional or lazy ones where we sit now will always call the exchange rate looking forward lower. Right now the interest rate differential is 2% so our rates are 2% higher than the USD and as such we can buy Ozzie at a 2% discount looking forward for each and every year. Just roughly if the spot rate is 80 cents the one year exchange rate would be 160 points lower at 7840 the two year at 7680 and so on.
> 
> This obviously has zero to do with anything. I am sure some will talk about cash and carry or some such stuff but it only becomes really attractive at higher differentials and sometimes as we saw the differential at 5% or MORE since float even that didn't stop the slide.
> 
> So here we are with a seemingly low differential on historic standards since float. Its certainly been lower but the average I suspect is somewhat higher.
> 
> My view on the currency based on commodity exports and projects coming on line has exports by volume out to 2011 growing by 31%. Not much can topple this. As such demands to attract capital which are at a rate of 50 billion per annum will fall to near zero by then. On a pure cash-flow basis the costs incurred in AUD and income mainly in USD also a factor. Not one hope in hell the ozzie goes down UNLESS China stops and commodity prices moderate by 30% in the next 4 years. Do you really see this happening ? ABARE does ....
> 
> My own view of the world is the currency keeps going up and whilst I totally disagree with the prices in USD falling for commodities and especially with India basically charging a royalty on iron ore exports to protect domestic reserves this now appears even less likely as time goes on.
> 
> As such all the cash-flows are heading one way, and whilst the current short term focus is on an interest rate rise, the RBA is going to have problems from the opposite direction I suspect within 12 months. How the hell to stop the currency going up ? Commodity prices if they don't fall which I don't think is a very big call given Chinese demand for steel will account for 66% of the projected rises is worked out already on the Chinese economy at 8% in 2008 and 7% 2009 .... with the Olympics I am not even sure of this.
> 
> For me 90 cents is the first stop. I suspect late 2008 we are there.
> I suspect the release valve as per normal will be the currency and a $1- exchange rate post 2010 is not out of the question and even a 1970's sort of $1.10.
> 
> So right now every economist I am sure when asked calls for lower commodity prices, a lower ozzie and higher interest rates for Australia.
> 
> Me thinking this out ... short term agree on rates but as the currency goes higher we will in effect be just like China but in reverse. China exporting very cheap products for the last 10 years and likely the next 10 has in effect being exporting deflation. Us as a large importer of finished goods with a rising currency will be importing deflation.
> 
> So the next few months the focus will be on rates going up, but in the meantime the fact is with the currency 5% higher than a few months ago price pressures are heading the other direction at 100 miles an hour. As time goes on .... just like China's thirst for Iron ore and everything associated directly and indirectly with it .... up will creep the ozzie.
> 
> Having worked the time-lines the big year is not 2007 but 2008 with a lot of the larger commodity exports coming fully on line then.
> 
> Its a one way street I feel.
> 
> As such another big call is that the interest rate differential we have been forced to pay over US rates will disappear by 2010 as the RBA is forced into a war against the currency rises eroding export income and the deflationary effect of every single import becoming even cheaper. Your car price will fall 15% if the ozzie is at 90 cents, our exporters will cry blue murder. Certainly the pegging of commodity producers at low P/E's because the view USD prices will moderate will turn out correct but for all the wrong reasons. USD commodity prices remain here but the AUD going up deadens the impact. Suppose the analysts 15% fall in AUD prices are correct but for totally the wrong reasons.
> 
> Anyhow ..... a few big calls
> 
> AUD at 90 cents late 2008
> 
> AUD possibly $1- and beyond 2011
> 
> AUD interest rates lowered below USD rates and the 30 plus year interest rate differential disappears by 2010.
> 
> We import deflation and ultra low overall inflation for the foreseeable future.
> 
> Not sure what to do with all this ... importers making massive profits as the currency creeps up and they do not pass it on ... or slowly. Large exporters already pegged at low P/E's on the view commodity prices fall so no real change there they have already been priced all be for the wrong reasons ......
> 
> Enuf rambling from me ...
> 
> good luck .... just a very long held view of things ... AUD higher ... AUD rates eventually very very much lower .... and stronger for longer on the commodity side.
> 
> Not sure what that does to asset prices but its not another boom despite lower rates.


----------



## wayneL

*Re: AUD is a short*



doctorj said:


> ...continued from previous



A lot of good points there Doc.

I would not be surprised if we see parity, at least briefly, sometime in 2008.
fwiw


----------



## CanOz

*Re: AUD is a short*

Having a go at basic analysis on these waves....Can someone comment please?


----------



## doctorj

*Re: AUD is a short*



wayneL said:


> A lot of good points there Doc.
> 
> I would not be surprised if we see parity, at least briefly, sometime in 2008.
> fwiw



Without doubt an excellent post - most of which I'm still fully absorbing.

The question is, aside from forex, how is this tradeable? Go long aussie retailers (DJS, HVN, WES) and be weary of exporters?


----------



## >Apocalypto<

*Re: AUD is a short*



money tree said:


> guppy on cnbc this morn said 82 top or at worst 82.5
> 
> will reload there




Don't listen to guppy Money tree.

Listen to what you can see on the chart!

Mate I will tell u Tom Schoulen from YTE mag made a call with E wave that Brent crude would go to 80$ a while ago I was all excited but I did not enter cuz chart said no and guess what it went to under 60!

I never trust no one but myself!


----------



## theasxgorilla

*Re: AUD is a short*



doctorj said:


> The question is, aside from forex, how is this tradeable? Go long aussie retailers (DJS, HVN, WES) and be weary of exporters?




If the Aussie market weathers this little storm and goes on to make new highs, and starts to again outperform other markets I'd expect inflows of foreign investment.  Any funds invested in an appreciating sharemarket will be supercharged through AUD appreciation.  Contrast this with the US, for example, where your asset price gains are erroded by a falling USD.


----------



## nizar

*Re: AUD is a short*

AUD/USD making new highs by the hour


----------



## nizar

*Re: AUD is a short*



nizar said:


> AUD/USD making new highs by the hour




17 year highs


----------



## >Apocalypto<

*Re: AUD is a short*



nizar said:


> 17 year highs





O its great!

Opened a long this morning.   Also my first ever FX trade.


----------



## CanOz

*Re: AUD is a short*



Trade_It said:


> O its great!
> 
> Opened a long this morning.   Also my first ever FX trade.




Well done TI! Was that a two pip spread? Where did you open?

Cheers,


----------



## >Apocalypto<

*Re: AUD is a short*



CanOz said:


> Well done TI! Was that a two pip spread? Where did you open?
> 
> Cheers,





Hey CanOz,

Hope you had a nice Chinese easter and hope the Chinese easter bunny did not bring you any green duck egg's!  

I got in at 8220 after I saw it break though the resistance, not the earliest entry but still, things still looking good as long as it stays on its trend.

Yeh it was on the 2 pip spread.

we will see what happens!


----------



## >Apocalypto<

*Re: AUD is a short*

Added again to my position things looking peachy!


----------



## CanOz

*Re: AUD is a short*



Trade_It said:


> Added again to my position things looking peachy!




Can you throw up another chart with your entry's TI?

Cheers,


----------



## nizar

*Re: AUD is a short*

LOL do currencies have breathers or pullbacks??!
Thoroughly enjoying this 

Well done T.I


----------



## >Apocalypto<

*Re: AUD is a short*

Nizar,

For sure buddy,
In fx you can see consolidation and small retracments. 

I am following the trend and also second entry off the flag rectangle continuation that formed. looking to keep adding along the way!

Will stay with this till it breaks trend and with the real possibility of another rate hike it could keep going for a while.

I am also short on the EUR/AUD.

CanOz

Attached with buy arrows.


----------



## >Apocalypto<

*Re: AUD is a short*

Dollar looked like a short before but it has bounced of its trend again.

Opened another long

One question, if the eur/aud goes up will the aud/usd go down or am i seeing things?


----------



## >Apocalypto<

*Re: AUD is a short*

*Moneytree were are you AUD is a short!*   (not trying to be smart!)

Have shorted the AUD today broke trend and is dropping nicely.

See my latest sell signal, that's my entry.


----------



## nizar

*Re: AUD is a short*

Very nice ascending triangle appearing on the hourly chart im looking at.

http://www.forexdirectory.net/aud.html


----------



## >Apocalypto<

*Re: AUD is a short*



Trade_It said:


> *Moneytree were are you AUD is a short!*   (not trying to be smart!)
> 
> Have shorted the AUD today broke trend and is dropping nicely.
> 
> See my latest sell signal, that's my entry.




Nizar 

I agree it does, watching it as well

I took profit on the short and am now also looking to go long again.

Did not update with post and charts.


----------



## Kauri

*Re: AUD is a short*

Going by my E/W outlook of the Weekly skippy my trades in the _shorter timeframes are now on the short side........_


----------



## Kauri

*Re: AUD is a short*



Kauri said:


> Going by my E/W outlook of the Weekly skippy my trades in the _shorter timeframes are now on the short side........_




  The daily short on the skippy is working so far, I guess the NFP tonight will determine where it goes now, have stop set at breakeven for the expected volatility.


----------



## lesm

*Re: AUD is a short*

It will be interesting to see how the AUD fairs tonight, certainly still looking like a short play at the moment.


----------



## markrmau

*Re: AUD is a short*

Just out of interest for long term fundamentals - 

is the AUD a good massive short against the YEN?

With Australia not making a surplus in the last 5 years (with the minerals boom no less!!!!), and the winding back of the carry trade imminent on the YEN, surely shorting the AUD vs YEN is the best deal on the planet.

Anyone else????


----------



## bvbfan

*Re: AUD is a short*

Depends on your time frame, I think shorting around 100 might be a good area.
But paying 5.75% on the position isn't too attractive.


----------



## Edwood

*Re: AUD is a short*

possible resistance coming overhead - this is monthly mind....


----------



## Edwood

*Re: AUD is a short*

and updated from a harmonical view - close to painting a bearish pattern


----------



## Uncle Festivus

*Re: AUD is a short*

Any takers......again?
Or parity & beyond?


----------



## >Apocalypto<

*Re: AUD is a short*



Uncle Festivus said:


> Any takers......again?
> Or parity & beyond?




UF,

I am watching the aussie like a hawk, screwed up a long entry the other day, now just waiting for a minor retrace or consolidation to renter.


----------



## wayneL

*Re: AUD is a short*



Uncle Festivus said:


> Any takers......again?
> Or parity & beyond?





wayneL said:


> Parity by next year anyone?



I'm stick to my parity view... 'cept it might be this year.


----------



## Uncle Festivus

*Re: AUD is a short*

I've gone a spec short @8869 on the chance that there could be a short covering rally in the $USD from the oversold position below 81 & the near universal 'dollar is doomed' wall of worry. Commodities retreating at the moment, & gold down 2%.


LONDON, July 25 (Reuters) - Copper prices fell more than 1 percent on Wednesday as labour dispute concerns eased, while lead and nickel slipped as the dollar strengthened. London Metal Exchange copper <MCU3> for three-months delivery was at $7,860/7,875 a tonne at 0937 GMT, down from Tuesday's close of $7,965. 


Copper touched a 10-week high of $8,212 on Monday, buoyed by a weaker U.S. dollar making metals cheaper for holders of other currencies, but prices were hit as the currency bounced back. "The stronger dollar is having a knock-on effect on the base slide we are seeing," an LME trader said.


----------



## >Apocalypto<

*Re: AUD is a short*



Uncle Festivus said:


> I've gone a spec short @8869 on the chance that there could be a short covering rally in the $USD from the oversold position below 81 & the near universal 'dollar is doomed' wall of worry. Commodities retreating at the moment, & gold down 2%.
> 
> 
> LONDON, July 25 (Reuters) - Copper prices fell more than 1 percent on Wednesday as labour dispute concerns eased, while lead and nickel slipped as the dollar strengthened. London Metal Exchange copper <MCU3> for three-months delivery was at $7,860/7,875 a tonne at 0937 GMT, down from Tuesday's close of $7,965.
> 
> 
> Copper touched a 10-week high of $8,212 on Monday, buoyed by a weaker U.S. dollar making metals cheaper for holders of other currencies, but prices were hit as the currency bounced back. "The stronger dollar is having a knock-on effect on the base slide we are seeing," an LME trader said.




Nice to see your in the FX game UF,

Nice idea will watch with interest.


----------



## Uncle Festivus

*Re: AUD is a short*



Trade_It said:


> Nice to see your in the FX game UF,
> 
> Nice idea will watch with interest.




Hi TI,
Finally jagged one for a change. It was a by product of some research on gold. Looks like a purely technical setup from oversold and short covering. I give it maybe another month to sort itself out then might re-test 80 again? Any projections along the timeline for this?
UF


----------



## Kauri

*Re: AUD is a short*

UF,
  The counts are a tad dubious but this is the way I am trading the Skippy at the moment... not sure about the time projections...
    Cheers
............Kauri


----------



## >Apocalypto<

*Re: AUD is a short*

Hi Kauri,

Welcome back,

After that sharp drop on the AUD either index related or not, I am back in the market on the long side, with 3 minis currently.

Bought as I saw it bounce on the support line plus it hit 50% fib point and found some buying.

Also holding a short on the euro/gbp.  

Holding till it stops me out on 2, or breaks trend on the third.

UF 

Have you taken a long on it? I am not sure on time lines but I will be staying in and adding until the trend is over. I have a target of 88 cents but its still in the early stages. (dont quote me on the 88)

I will move my post back to the aussie here we go again thread after this.


----------



## stormbringer

*Re: AUD is a short*

I'm long, bought in at .85412, was looking good up until the last couple of hrs. I'm gonna sit tight and see what happens. Got my stops at .85800, which will have me slightly in the red. Overall though, 70% of my fx are in positive territory, and I've done ok with some of the major indices. Was a good day to long on most positions.


----------



## >Apocalypto<

*Re: AUD is a short*



Trade_It said:


> Hi Kauri,
> 
> Welcome back,
> 
> After that sharp drop on the AUD either index related or not, I am back in the market on the long side, with 3 minis currently.
> 
> Bought as I saw it bounce on the support line plus it hit 50% fib point and found some buying.
> 
> Also holding a short on the euro/gbp.
> 
> Holding till it stops me out on 2, or breaks trend on the third.
> 
> UF
> 
> Have you taken a long on it? I am not sure on time lines but I will be staying in and adding until the trend is over. I have a target of 88 cents but its still in the early stages. (dont quote me on the 88)
> 
> I will move my post back to the aussie here we go again thread after this.




Well I was cleaned out of two of my contracts last night. They were looking good as I went to bed.

O well thats the game! see what this next falls shows on the support side.


----------



## Kauri

*Re: AUD is a short*

Hi Trade_it,
                 I'm still on the short side, on the 60 and 240 min charts am looking for the 5th wave of the corrective *a* , not far off methinks, then may be time for a bullish *b* ???
   Cheers
...........Kauri


----------



## Kauri

*Re: AUD is a short*

Have closed out my shorts and will watch and see if a *W2 or B* develops from here... seeing as the minor *w5* has reached its minimum target area.


----------



## Kauri

*Re: AUD is a short*

If the minor *Wc* brings in  the intermediate *W2 orB* there may be a short into the *W3 or C*,


----------



## Kauri

*Re: AUD is a short*

Just might be heading up to complete the minor *Wc*..*W2 orB* before moving down again.... if it does I'll be looking for a quick short on the following *W3orC* 
 Cheers
..........Kauri


----------



## Kauri

*Re: AUD is a short*

Sooner or later my *Wc*...*W2orB*.... will come in, maybe the RBA will push it up there for me, will then be looking for a short down to the *W3orC *which should also be the *W4*... starting to confuse myself now 
  Cheers
........Kauri


----------



## Kauri

*Re: AUD is a short*

Well we got our *Wc*...*W2orB *on the skippy ... and am now short... has been a busy afternoon with the EURJPY also a short on a similar setup..  .. had the cable as a short setup also but wasn't 100% on that one so passed it up.  ... 
  Cheers
..Kauri


----------



## >Apocalypto<

*Re: AUD is a short*



Kauri said:


> Well we got our *Wc*...*W2orB *on the skippy ... and am now short... has been a busy afternoon with the EURJPY also a short on a similar setup..  .. had the cable as a short setup also but wasn't 100% on that one so passed it up.  ...
> Cheers
> ..Kauri




Hi Kauri,

well well well.............

I opened a long on the AUD Wednesday night at 85.90 and it was all rosy till I looked at it at 5pm yesterday moved my stop up, thank god as I thought it looked like dropping back into the range, well it did not drop ito the range it did its best to smash thought it! was stoped with a minor profit. but jeez I was chased out of there faster then a mouse at a cat convention!


----------



## Kauri

*Re: AUD is a short*



Trade_It said:


> Hi Kauri,
> 
> well well well.............
> 
> I opened a long on the AUD Wednesday night at 85.90 and it was all rosy till I looked at it at 5pm yesterday moved my stop up, thank god as I thought it looked like dropping back into the range, well it did not drop ito the range it did its best to smash thought it! was stoped with a minor profit. but jeez I was chased out of there faster then a mouse at a cat convention!




  Hi TI,
        I'm looking, at the moment, for a decline down to around the 82c. level.....  if a bit of a pause eventuates around the current levels for both the Skippy and the EURJPY I will be looking to pyramid my shorts...
    Cheers
..........Kauri


----------



## >Apocalypto<

*Re: AUD is a short*



Kauri said:


> Hi TI,
> I'm looking, at the moment, for a decline down to around the 82c. level.....  if a bit of a pause eventuates around the current levels for both the Skippy and the EURJPY I will be looking to pyramid my shorts...
> Cheers
> ..........Kauri




Kauri,

As I saw this morning the trend and minor support was broken, with a very good possibility of further downside, I have taken a short on the AUD/USD entry @ 84.99.

Here's to the red side!


----------



## >Apocalypto<

*Re: AUD is a short*



Trade_It said:


> Kauri,
> 
> As I saw this morning the trend and minor support was broken, with a very good possibility of further downside, I have taken a short on the AUD/USD entry @ 84.99.
> 
> Here's to the red side!




Closed my short friday night.

made two more short term short plays on the AUD saw the minor intraday rally looking for support or more down side.

Good Trading


----------



## TradingAffinity

*Re: AUD is a short*

Hi,...I have a limit buy in on AUD at 8378/8380, with stop at 8369...I thought we might have got down there in Friday night (8/10/07) Trading


----------



## >Apocalypto<

*Re: AUD is a short*



TradingAffinity said:


> Hi,...I have a limit buy in on AUD at 8378/8380, with stop at 8369...I thought we might have got down there in Friday night (8/10/07) Trading




Hi TA,

The AUD and other FX crosses can really do the opposite. Its still plunging on the intraday but finding support with a minor rally. Your limit may get hit but fx loves to drop down in plunges and then it can retrace 50% and find support in no time at all. 

You still might get filled.


----------



## TradingAffinity

*Re: AUD is a short*

Yeah ...I was filled & we got a bounce which didnt held long ....but tight stop made damage minimal...8180 area looking like next best bet atm....but this thing is shapping up bigger than I  first imagined.
Thanks for reply


----------



## >Apocalypto<

*Re: AUD is a short*



TradingAffinity said:


> Yeah ...I was filled & we got a bounce which didnt held long ....but tight stop made damage minimal...8180 area looking like next best bet atm....but this thing is shapping up bigger than I  first imagined.
> Thanks for reply




no probs

Inflation rose in US so no rate cuts coming that is a bullish driver for the US$

can u believe it i was short last night on gut feel then i closed at loss to teach myself a lesson for trading with out due cause! did it drop!

I personally think the market has turned on the aud and it will make some more falls. I am waiting a on a consolidation to get long or short, on the lines watching and waiting for now!


----------



## Kauri

*Re: AUD is a short*

On the Weekly I have it as _nearly_ in the *W4* zone, on the daily it has just broken through the *WA*=*WC* area, and on the shorter term it looks like it is in the 3rd wave of *WC,* also to keep the E/W pattern valid it needs to hold above the *W1* at around 80c, so on balance I think she has a little ways to go yet before _possibly_ bottoming and turning. 
  Cheers
...Kauri


----------



## waz

*Re: AUD is a short*

It just fell below 0.7950 

which is weird coz i dont see much happening on the futures market

down 50c in about 5mins

any ideas? news?


----------



## waz

*Re: AUD is a short*

Am I the only one watching our dollar drop?

Its been gradually dropping since last thursday in an almost straight line.
Then this morning it drops from 0.8170 to  0.8000 in the space of an hour.
recovers a cent then again a 1 cent drop, then another 1.5 cent drop.
(these are just quick visual observations)

It has now dropped about 12% since its high a few weeks back.
which i think is too much to soon.

Is there such a thing as an unwinding of an unwinding carry trade??

The Au has now fallen to its lowest point since march. would i be right in saying that anyone who has been carry trading the Au since late march to now not made any money at all?

The Japanese would have been better off leaving their money in their own bank accounts.


----------



## waz

*Re: AUD is a short*

Further to this, the au/JPY has dropped about 17% since the end of July.

Now may be a good time to buy into listed Japanese property.


----------



## wayneL

*Re: AUD is a short*

Far canal!!!!

I normally watch Pound, Euro &Yen. Just looked at the Aussie!

OMG!

My parity argument just went pfffffffff!


----------



## reece55

*Re: AUD is a short*



wayneL said:


> Far canal!!!!
> 
> I normally watch Pound, Euro &Yen. Just looked at the Aussie!
> 
> OMG!
> 
> My parity argument just went pfffffffff!




OMG............ Hence why FX can be a tricky game to master......

Down to 79 cents, I think you are right in saying that the that parity equation is out the window........... We haven't been this low for about a half a year...... 

Commodities all down by 5%, high yield currencies being sold off - I wonder if it's the hedge funds (DUH!!!!)....

So funny, because on the way up, I know you Wayne and many others were talking about these very problems. Incredible how it comes to roost so quickly.

Cheers
Reece


----------



## wayneL

*Re: AUD is a short*



reece55 said:


> OMG............ Hence why FX can be a tricky game to master......
> 
> Down to 79 cents, I think you are right in saying that the that parity equation is out the window........... We haven't been this low for about a half a year......
> 
> Commodities all down by 5%, high yield currencies being sold off - I wonder if it's the hedge funds (DUH!!!!)....
> 
> *So funny, because on the way up, I know you Wayne and many others were talking about these very problems. Incredible how it comes to roost so quickly.*
> 
> Cheers
> Reece



It's still unsettling to watch how fast things are unfolding, and it could get a lot worse very quickly.

I hope not, because it's very hard to manage ridiculous volatility.

Scary!  and infuriating that "they" did not see this coming


----------



## bvbfan

*Re: AUD is a short*

Feb 89 AUD went from 88c to 75c over the space of the year after dropping from 88c to 80c in Feb

It will overshoot but the interest differentials will widen between AUD and USD, expect it will be back to 81c later this year if not higher.


----------



## professor_frink

*Re: AUD is a short*



Kauri said:


> On the Weekly I have it as _nearly_ in the *W4* zone, on the daily it has just broken through the *WA*=*WC* area, and on the shorter term it looks like it is in the 3rd wave of *WC,* also to keep the E/W pattern valid it needs to hold above the *W1* at around 80c, so on balance I think she has a little ways to go yet before _possibly_ bottoming and turning.
> Cheers
> ...Kauri




Hi kauri,

I'm assuming that yesterday's action has invalidated your count on the aussie. Being pretty uneducated on EW, but with a bit of an interest in it, I'd be interested to hear how you manage it now. Is it back to the drawing board with a new count taking in the latest price action, or are you going to just leave it alone for awhile and look elsewhere for a trade?

Cheers


----------



## >Apocalypto<

*Re: AUD is a short*

I got to say yesterday afternoon to night was some of the best intrady trading i have ever had on the AUD.

the EURO/AUD was moving up so fast that the 10$ spread would be chewed up on entry was crazy. in and out in and out on a two 2min buying in of the minor dips.

caught a few chunks as the AUD/USD as it went to -360 was a hell of a night. 

never experienced such a fast market, I had trouble getting out as the price kept changing!

Glad I got a chance to experience that, was a true rush!


----------



## Kauri

*Re: AUD is a short*



professor_frink said:


> Hi kauri,
> 
> I'm assuming that yesterday's action has invalidated your count on the aussie. Being pretty uneducated on EW, but with a bit of an interest in it, I'd be interested to hear how you manage it now. Is it back to the drawing board with a new count taking in the latest price action, or are you going to just leave it alone for awhile and look elsewhere for a trade?
> 
> Cheers




  Hi Prof
           The count I was following has been invalidated by strict E/W interpretation... although on FX I usually allow a W4 to overlap a W1 so long as it doesn't go too far in or close deep in the W1... this may be touch and go..  .. Have actually just closed out my shorts on the skippy as I am half expecting a bit of a rally from here.... although on the 60Min chart the punters look as nervous as a cat in a room full of rocking chairs at the moment.
 Cheers
......Kauri


----------



## professor_frink

*Re: AUD is a short*



Kauri said:


> Hi Prof
> The count I was following has been invalidated by strict E/W interpretation... although on FX I usually allow a W4 to overlap a W1 so long as it doesn't go too far in or close deep in the W1... this may be touch and go..  .. Have actually just closed out my shorts on the skippy as I am half expecting a bit of a rally from here.... although on the 60Min chart the punters look as nervous as a cat in a room full of rocking chairs at the moment.
> Cheers
> ......Kauri




Cheers Kauri, wouldn't be surprised to see a bit of a rally here too- looks way overdone and unsustainable in the short term, but given the current volatility in markets around the globe, it could run pretty hard either way and I wouldn't be surprised.


----------



## waz

*Re: AUD is a short*

Reserve Bank active in foreign exchange market last night
Source: SYDNEY, Aug 17 AAP 
Published: August 17 2007, 12:08AM 

Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) governor Glenn Stevens says the central bank was active in the foreign exchange market last night amid volatile movements in the Australian dollar.

"During the overnight session we did a bit of dealing," Mr Stevens told a House of Representatives committee hearing in the Gold Coast.

"We don't typically signal about interventions for various reasons," he said. 

"The general point is that on occasion, where market conditions are disorderly, we are prepared to intervene from time to time."

He said it was routine for central banks around the world to share information.

"It's quite a routine things to exchange info on what's happening," he said.

He said that while central banks would be sharing information with "more intensity at the moment than normal", there was not abnormal activity.

"There's isn't any kind of coordinated activity that I'm aware of that's going on at the moment between central banks," he said.

The Australian dollar opened lower today after sinking to a new five-month low overnight.

The domestic currency opened at at 79.08 US cents, below the 80 cent mark for the first time since March 20.

Overnight, it sank from a high of 80.45 US cents to a low of 78.20, the Australian dollar's worst level since March 14 when it fell to 78.03.


----------



## >Apocalypto<

*Re: AUD is a short*

Short on a couple again on the AUD/USD,

after seeing it fail to hold its eary gains.

76-75 target........ any takers?


----------



## professor_frink

*Re: AUD is a short*



Trade_It said:


> Short on a couple again on the AUD/USD,
> 
> after seeing it fail to hold its eary gains.
> 
> 76-75 target........ any takers?




bold move. Given how quickly and how far it's fallen, a countertrend move from here could be pretty severe.


----------



## professor_frink

*Re: AUD is a short*



Trade_It said:


> Short on a couple again on the AUD/USD,
> 
> after seeing it fail to hold its eary gains.
> 
> 76-75 target........ any takers?




you got that one pretty well right TI- it got down into the 76 area. Nice work. You still holding through the madness, or have you cut and run?


----------



## reece55

*Re: AUD is a short*

Just went long on AUD-USD - quick fifty pips, easiest money I ever made......

All the best guys, volatility is so high at the moment, gotta take profits when it's there - I only took 1 lot!!!! Still not bad for 15 minutes worth of fun.

Cheers


----------



## professor_frink

*Re: AUD is a short*



reece55 said:


> Just went long on AUD-USD - quick fifty pips, easiest money I ever made......
> 
> All the best guys, volatility is so high at the moment, gotta take profits when it's there - I only took 1 lot!!!! Still not bad for 15 minutes worth of fun.
> 
> Cheers




I'm thinking there might be a bit more in this one- that sell off recently looked way overdone to me. I'm looking for it to test 80.


----------



## reece55

*Re: AUD is a short*



professor_frink said:


> I'm thinking there might be a bit more in this one- that sell off recently looked way overdone to me. I'm looking for it to test 80.




I agree with you prof, but I just don't have the never tonight, want to go to sleep shortly, so that was enough for me.......

All the best if you go in long, I would think that the 80 cent level at least should be tested....

Cheers


----------



## professor_frink

*Re: AUD is a short*



reece55 said:


> I agree with you prof, but I just don't have the never tonight, want to go to sleep shortly, so that was enough for me.......
> 
> All the best if you go in long, I would think that the 80 cent level at least should be tested....
> 
> Cheers




already long- missed the initial spike unfortunately, but have found what looks like a half decent entry off the 5 minute chart, and will look to let it go for as long as I can stay awake!!!


----------



## >Apocalypto<

*Re: AUD is a short*



professor_frink said:


> you got that one pretty well right TI- it got down into the 76 area. Nice work. You still holding through the madness, or have you cut and run?




cheers mate,

closed my short around 5.30pm

went long on the EUR/USD and short on the USD/CAD, long AUD/USD. i was in 1 hour before the rate cut, that sure helped! 

have taken profits now.

watching the AUD.....

also the USD/CAD is looking good a new uptrend may be in the works, the rate cut simply retraced it so far, I will be watching to see how far the US$ gets knocked down.

good trading to you and your long. I think you should be quite safe over night with it.

watch the yen on monday!


----------



## reece55

*Re: AUD is a short*



Trade_It said:


> cheers mate,
> 
> closed my short around 5.30pm
> 
> went long on the EUR/USD and short on the USD/CAD, long AUD/USD. i was in 1 hour before the rate cut, that sure helped!
> 
> have taken profits now.
> 
> watching the AUD.....
> 
> also the USD/CAD is looking good a new uptrend may be in the works, the rate cut simply retraced it so far, I will be watching to see how far the US$ gets knocked down.




Superb trading Joe, good on you - exploiting the volatility to your advantage is the way to go. And boy, on the FX market at the moment, it's a field of gold (provided you get it right).

Cheers mate


----------



## >Apocalypto<

*Re: AUD is a short*



reece55 said:


> Superb trading Joe, good on you - exploiting the volatility to your advantage is the way to go. And boy, on the FX market at the moment, it's a field of gold (provided you get it right).
> 
> Cheers mate




Hi Reece how have u been?

don't worry I screwed a couple up today as well but the loses where only minor.

I also posted a recognition to u in MBL, u sure called it! Well done.

I was looking to hold abit longer on those trades but the rate cut really spiced things up tonight, that was a real shock.

I still think that will only slow things down, not fix anything.

The US$ looks good to me ATM I am watching the USD/CAD could be a nice one there if this weakness only proves to be a retracment.

take it easy Reece,

good trading to you........


----------



## reece55

*Re: AUD is a short*



Trade_It said:


> Hi Reece how have u been?
> 
> don't worry I screwed a couple up today as well but the loses where only minor.
> 
> I also posted a recognition to u in MBL, u sure called it! Well done.
> 
> I was looking to hold abit longer on those trades but the rate cut really spiced things up tonight, that was a real shock.
> 
> I still think that will only slow things down, not fix anything.
> 
> The US$ looks good to me ATM I am watching the USD/CAD could be a nice one there if this weakness only proves to be a retracment.
> 
> take it easy Reece,
> 
> good trading to you........




Hey mate, I've been run off my feet with work at the moment, the reporting season is always busy for me, so took a break from trading - quite a good decision considering the moves in international markets.....

Yeah, I did reply in the MBL thread - it ain't over yet in my humble opinion....

I'm with you - the discount window is a temporary thing, there has been a fundamental swing in economics at the moment - I am generally looking for a strong USD against most currencies, but the looney looks prime, especially considering the fact most people were counting on parity....

All the best mate, I reckon it might be time for bed.....


----------



## Kauri

*Re: AUD is a short*

Was waiting for a *W2* to find a good point to take a long trade... but it looks like it has run without me...   
 Cheers
..........Kauri


----------



## wiseguy

*Re: AUD is a short*

^^ thats a nice head and shoulders pattern forming. hopefully it'll come back to retest the 0.8000 area.


----------



## tayser

*Re: AUD is a short*

^ EURAUD has another very nice H & S forming too.


----------



## Kauri

*Re: AUD is a short*

Time for a couple of hours sleep and then up to see if we make it with a W2 this time...
 Cheers
.....Kauri


----------



## >Apocalypto<

*Re: AUD is a short*

Hi Kauri,

Great charts and good on u for the posting.


I am back short on the AUD from about 1 hour ago,

See it making a test of the lows to maybe breaking them.

But this is maybe another range pattern in creating.

Good trading


----------



## Kauri

*Re: AUD is a short*

Still have a medium term bearish outlook... on dailys... but on the 60Min am half expecting a small bullish correction first..  
 Cheers
...Kauri


----------



## Kauri

*Re: AUD is a short*

Well we got the small correction, a lot quicker than I expected..  now to see if a tradable swing presents..  
 Cheers
...Kauri


----------



## Kauri

*Re: AUD is a short*



Kauri said:


> Well we got the small correction, a lot quicker than I expected.. now to see if a tradable swing presents..
> Cheers
> ...Kauri




  Is moving along well...  so far
 Cheers
...Kauri


----------



## Kauri

*Re: AUD is a short*

Is in the typical area for a minor W3... will be interesting to see if it goes on in a 5 wave or an ABC...
 Cheers
...Kauri


----------



## Kauri

*Re: AUD is a short*

For anyone interested in Harmonics the Skippy is,.. according to my count  .., setting up for a butterfly...   Have finally worked out how to project them in DT... now for the Gartley...
 Cheers
.....Kauri


----------



## tayser

*Re: AUD is a short*

Anyone still short on the AUD???


----------



## jovan

*Re: AUD is a short*

No, but I think now is time to short it.


----------



## >Apocalypto<

*Re: AUD is a short*



jovan said:


> No, but I think now is time to short it.




why would u short it and on what time frame?


----------



## Kauri

*Re: AUD is a short*

Keeping on eye on the Skippy, if for no other reason than the 89 horizontal area has proved quite strong recently..   
 Cheers
..........Kauri


----------



## Kauri

*Re: AUD is a short*

The name of this thread is a bit misleading... any chance of someone changing it to just AUD??  
  Have got a very tight stop on the skippy, notwithstanding the figures due out soon, if my count is correct and a W5 completes I would expect an intermediate W2 to head for the S/R line around .89.. now must leave it to its own devices and trust to my stops and take the wife for a cataract op... irate:
 Cheers
.........Kauri


----------



## Barndat

*Re: AUD is a short*

Hello Kauri, If the CPI is higher than .9% it should go up though it respects double tops I have noticed. By the look of the current rally the good news maybe priced in so we could see a drop to around 8875 i.e. 50% retracement then push higher. The Daily looks very bullish to me...


----------



## Kauri

*Re: AUD is a short*

Latest info that has popped up on my screen... now off to the docs with wife for cataract..    


> Firm Underlying CPI Points To Rate Hike In November Sydney, October 24.  Australia's inflation data came in mixed with headline CPI rising just 0.7%, below the median market forecast for a 0.9% rise and IFR's 1.0% forecast, helped by lower petrol prices.  However, the RBA's underlying measures were on the high side, with the weighted median rising 1.0% and trimmed mean rising 0.9%, both ahead of the market median forecasts for a 0.8% gain; IFR had expected a 0.9% rise for both.  With both measures at the top of the 2-3% target zone for CPI, and rising by more than 3.5% annualised (4.0% for weighted median), the data points to a rate hike when the RBA next meets in November.  Inflationary pressures are firming--the 1.0% rise in the weighted median was the fastest increase in 16 years, while the trimmed mean has now spent six months at an annualised 3.6%, up from 3.2% a year ago.  With the labour market continuing to tighten, food prices set to rise sharply in the current quarter, as foreshadowed by the strong gains in this sector shown at the producer price level, and domestic price pressures remaining generally strong, the RBA would lose credibility if it fails to act.  The economy has clearly shrugged off the last rate hike in August, and more needs to be done to prevent it growing faster than potential and raising inflationary expectations in the longer term.




  Cheers
.............Kauri


----------



## Kauri

*Re: AUD is a short*

May be heading initially, in the short term, towards a W2 around the 89 mark?? 
 Cheers
..........Kauri


----------



## Kauri

Have added to my long skippy.. 5th wave?
 Cheers
..........Kauri


----------



## Kauri

Apart from the rate speculation there are a few other factors supporting the Skippy...
 Cheers
..........Kauri



> Sydney, October 29:
> The AUD/USD is back above 0.9200 and has made yet another 23-year high at
> 0.9216. traders say that the reports of Xstrata"s 3.1 BLN AUD bid for Australian
> miner Jubilee is helping sentiment and there is a wide mix of buyers supporting
> the AUD/USD. Australian exporters and investment banks were good buyers below
> 0.9200 and Japanese names have also been noted. There is talk in Tokyo that
> retail demand for investment trusts might be fairly large this week and Japanese
> retail margin traders are getting more active selling JPY and buying currencies
> such as the AUD. The AUD/USD trades 0.9210/15.


----------



## Kauri

Have taken off the short term component overnight on expectations of a minor W4..(the minor W1 and W4 are not too convincing though).. will watch and see if another opportunity pops up for a final?? run into a minor W5..
 Cheers
.........Kauri


----------



## Kauri

Has touched on where I expect a W4 to reach... will wait and see what the U.S does with it tonight before I commit to a trade either way..
 Cheers
..........Kauri


----------



## Kauri

and have taken off the LT portion of the trade..(also on the Euro).. has reached what I consider to be the min W5.. and am not overly confident that the 25bp cut wasn't already to a large extent factored in already...
Cheers
...........Kauri


----------



## Kauri

Have closed out an overnight opportunistic short.. not sure of the direction from here pre-NFP... a 2orB during the day would set us up nicely for another short tonight?? maybe??   Now to grab some sleep before the Red Bull divebombers start roaring overhead again practising for the weekend on the Swan..     

 Cheers
...........Kauri


----------



## Kauri

Have taken another opportunistic short... will be keeping it very tight...

 Cheers
..........Kauri


----------



## Kauri

Kauri said:


> Have taken another opportunistic short... will be keeping it very tight...
> 
> Cheers
> ..........Kauri




 Made enough to slip down the road and buy a cleanskin red..  
 It would be nice if we turned around the 9225-9325 mark.. 50% ret of the last down leg and also a=c....  
 Cheers
..........Kauri


----------



## Kauri

Have gone short looking for the W3orC...  following the Dow down??
 Cheers
.........Kauri


----------



## Kauri

More D&G??    Sure has some bounce in it tonight...
 Cheers
...........Kauri



> Nov. 2. The market has been caught long and wrong on the spike higher in carry trades and the carry trades continue to crumble, dragging AUD/USD lower. AUD/USD has triggered stops under 0.9180 and under 0.9150 and now trades at 0.9145 as AUD/JPY collapses. Next support for AUD/USD remains at 0.9120.
> AUD/JPY which hit highs around 106.40 this morning has dropped to 104.75, taking out more stops on the move lower. *Rumors of another large write down from an investment bank is helping fuel stock and carry trade losses.*


----------



## happytrader

Although this post may be a little off topic, I though it might be of interest to some now that the AUD is at all time highs. Have just found out that goods of less than  AUD$1000 are import duty and tax free.

Now I can order that drum set from the US

Cheers
Happytrader


----------



## TradingAffinity

*Re: AUD(ATH)*

The RBA monthly records show an ATH high of 1.4875 ATH for the AUD pair in 1973....another source gives 1.4950 ATH, also in 1973.


----------



## reece55

Kauri said:


> Have gone short looking for the W3orC...  following the Dow down??
> Cheers
> .........Kauri




Hi Kauri
Same count here with me, it always amazes me how spooky/powerful charting is when you combine both EW and Fibo - I still have my learning skates on, but what I'm calling A is 38.2 of tough to peak of 5 wave move on the 4 hour chart and the snapback from A is about 50% of W4 to W5......... The symmetry is interesting.

Wonder if the almost certain .25% interest rate decision will have any impact on the pair, it's tomorrow isn't it.....

Cheers and good to have an active Forex buddy here on Aussie Stock Forums!
Reece


----------



## Kauri

Hi Reece
            I'm still on my learner skates too, I find that sometimes the ice is pretty thin underfoot..    ..
            I tend to think the raise from the RBA is well and truly priced in already, but who knows with the markets??? still trying to get my head around the markets gyrations after the U.S NFP on friday.    ..
 Cheers
..........Kauri


----------



## Kauri

There seems to be a bit of a horizontal S/R line at 9180ish.. will be looking for a possible short on a swing low if she breaks through that..
 Cheers
..........Kauri


----------



## Kauri

Taken a bite on the minor abc count..on break lower below the b... still expect 9180ish area to put up a bit of a fight..
Cheers
..........Kauri


----------



## reece55

Kauri said:


> Taken a bite on the minor abc count..on break lower below the b... still expect 9180ish area to put up a bit of a fight..
> Cheers
> ..........Kauri




I'm in with you Kauri, lets see how we go.....

So far, USD is up across the board...... Had a joy of time shorting the EUR/JPY for about 50 pips in 30 mins!!!

Cheers


----------



## Kauri

Hi Reece,
               Some spirited defence of 9150 options going on I think... if we manage to break through there.. 
  Cheers
..........Kauri


----------



## reece55

Kauri said:


> Hi Reece,
> Some spirited defence of 9150 options going on I think... if we manage to break through there..
> Cheers
> ..........Kauri




Yep, so far fairly heavy resistance down near that level....

I have to go to sleep tonight, so my stop is in place at about 92.30 - lets hope the US session yields some profits!!!

All the best Kauri...

Cheers
Reece


----------



## Kauri

Not a lot either way today..  
 Cheers
...........Kauri



> November 6 The AUD/USD opened in Sydney around 0.9207 and has traded
> a 0.9204/36 range so far. Conditions have been very thin and skittish today with
> *most of Australia more interested in betting on the Melbourne Cup than watching
> boring Asian FX markets.*  The pair has had a bid tone for most of the day ahead
> of tomorrow"s interest rate decision and hit the highs of the day over lunch
> when an Asian sovereign name paid a few small offers around the place. The pair
> however came off hard to 20 offered before bids reappeared. *With tomorrows rate
> decision a forgone conclusion may traders were suggesting tomorrows decision
> might prove to be the classic buy the rumour sell the fact situation.* Others
> there is little interest to sell AUD other than on equity woes with many model
> funds rushing to sell JPY crosses (and in particular AUD/JPY) when stocks drop
> quickly. Most of Asia today concentrated on the Hang Seng after y"days 5% drop
> but despite being volatile, the index was last up 0.3% giving dealers few fresh
> leads. Plenty of newspaper reports today on investment banks and their subprime
> woes but none had any currency impact.


----------



## waz

A huge amount of activity in the last 24 hours but no new post.

After hitting 94c, it dropped to 93.10 with a small bounce, then fell 1.3c in a few hours. In a few mins it managed to fall about 0.6c. Down to 91.90

Then again rapidly went back up to almost 93 and is now 92.6.

Huge swings in a very short timeframe, with really no new news.

Its looking like it will trade within the band of 92 to 93 for the next few hours.


----------



## Kauri

waz said:


> Huge swings in a very short timeframe, with really no new news.
> 
> .



waz,
A little more to add to the big story out of China yesterday coupled with the rush to risk aversion which struck yesterday...



> November 8 The AUD/USD opened at 0.9275 in Sydney and has traded a
> 0.9190/0.9300 range so far. Volatility was back with a vengeance today; the
> first move was hard down in the twilight zone between NY close and Asia open.
> With stocks down 2.5% across the board on Wall Street, a sharp move lower in
> USD/JPY was tripped on the break of 112.60. It was stop loss city below 50 and
> the pair touched 112.02 before recovering. AUD/JPY fell from around 105.60 to
> 103.10 in a heartbeat. AUD/USD touched 0.9290 before doing a quick u-turn. Once
> Tokyo opened, Japanese importers came searching for offers in USD/JPY and the
> AUD/USD and AUD/JPY quickly regained their poise. Needless to say what happened
> here today happened in thin market conditions and one should not over read the
> situation. The weak US dollar theme remains the overriding consideration and
> whilst the AUD was buffeted, it would be a brave call to say we have seen the
> end of AUD strength this year. Y"days RBA statement got plenty of coverage with
> some analysts saying the hawkish comments point to a Dec rate hike. Others
> disagree saying RBA needed to be hawkish as hike came during a federal election.


----------



## Kauri

Interesting to see if it takes out the triangle??
Cheers
..........Kauri


----------



## Kauri

Kauri said:


> Interesting to see if it takes out the triangle??
> Cheers
> ..........Kauri




Skipping along nicely...the possible 1.62% W3?? may hold her for a while...
Cheers
..........Kauri


----------



## tayser

some sensational moves on the Yen cross last night (and a very nice one only an hour ago!) - all up you could have scalped well over 100pips quite easily.


----------



## Kauri

Have brought my stop in close... wouldn't be surprised at a little rally around here... the yen has strong support at 110 and may possibly direct where we go short term from here... if stop is taken will be looking for another leg down.. soon-eventually 
Cheers
.........Kauri


----------



## ithatheekret

Patiently waiting to see if 90/89.90 is tested again ....... waiting to pounce if achieved ...... but it may put up a struggle trying to get there .

Already riding a short EUR against the JPY , waiting to see if 161.8 holds support or sets off another freefall .


----------



## ithatheekret

Scratch that ..... I'm in @ 90.184


----------



## ithatheekret

90.212 scalp , retest coming up


----------



## ithatheekret

oooh ..... 160.80s for a second scalp with the eur/jpy .

action there too .


----------



## ithatheekret

Took a reversal postion on that trade and could well , reverse it again .

It just shows the distinct difference in time frames for forex traders , who whilst looking ahead are really working on 15+ min. time frames , see the trend hitch a ride , but ..... if you really want volatility , there are spurts of it daily in most crosses . Up , Down , it all works .


----------



## Kauri

Have got out of the habit of playing in the counter-trends... looks like 9050-9100 *may possibly* be on the cards though???
Cheers
........Kauri


----------



## reece55

Kauri said:


> Have got out of the habit of playing in the counter-trends... looks like 9050-9100 *may possibly* be on the cards though???
> Cheers
> ........Kauri




Your game Kauri, the selling across the higher yielding currencies has been an interesting trend since Friday's dramatic moves....

The AUD continues to be under significant selling pressure due to the buying in yen.... I'm going to sit on the sidelines at present with this pair...... Best of luck with the trade... However, there is normally a bounce after such a dramatic move....

Cheers


----------



## Kauri

reece55 said:


> Your game Kauri, the selling across the higher yielding currencies has been an interesting trend since Friday's dramatic moves....
> 
> The AUD continues to be under significant selling pressure due to the buying in yen.... I'm going to sit on the sidelines at present with this pair...... Best of luck with the trade... However, there is normally a bounce after such a dramatic move....
> 
> Cheers



Not as game as that Reece..    ..  I'm over playing in the counter-trends... just biding my time waiting for this *bounce?? *to play itself out before re-establishing my shorts... still of the opinion we are looking for something around 8750-8550.. maybe...   
Cheers
.........Kauri


----------



## reece55

Kauri said:


> Not as game as that Reece..    ..  I'm over playing in the counter-trends... just biding my time waiting for this *bounce?? *to play itself out before re-establishing my shorts... still of the opinion we are looking for something around 8750-8550.. maybe...
> Cheers
> .........Kauri




Sorry Kauri, misread your previous statement... You can get burnt trying to play those counters.........

Yep, I think a short is the way to go here, and I'm aiming for at least the 87 level, but the darn bounce just isn't forthcoming at the moment.... perhaps 90 and bit is all we will get??? Don't wanna jump the gun here.....

Cheers


----------



## Kauri

Short both the Skippy and Yen... tight stops..
Cheers
..........Kauri


----------



## Kauri

Kauri said:


> Short both the Skippy and Yen... tight stops..
> Cheers
> ..........Kauri



 Taken on a flag type set-up... W4??
Cheers
.........Kauri


----------



## Kauri

Strong defence around the 88 mark... might be an option barrier lurking??? can't wait around any longer to see so alarums set and off to the scratcher...
Cheers
.........Kauri


----------



## Kauri

Closed out.. alarums off...will watch for a successfull assault on 88 for another entry...  :sleeping:  
Cheers
........Kauri


----------



## Kauri

Woke up this morning to find myself holding another short... seems the late US sell-off, on-going carry trade unwind, and lower commodity prices might have done the damage??
Cheers
........Kauri


----------



## Kauri

Kauri said:


> Woke up this morning to find myself holding another short... seems the late US sell-off, on-going carry trade unwind, and lower commodity prices might have done the damage??
> Cheers
> ........Kauri




Have closed out the short for a small gain... put it in the scalp basket I guess, although so far as scalps go this one had precious few hairs on it...
... 
   everyone in the financial media seems to now think the skippy is doomed... so I wouldn't be surprised to see her bounce and or consolidate a tad..   Amazing how these financial commentators only a short week ago had.. 
the skippy at parity
the ASX at 7000+
gold to $1000
oil $100+
and now have without turning a hair lined up on the opposite side of the fence..     What a difference a day makes..
Cheers
........Kauri


----------



## Kauri

Testing what I see as the W4.. if it moves decisively into it it may indicate that we are into a W2orB...
Cheers
........Kauri


----------



## Kauri

Once I map out the minor moves they invariably fall apart, but for what it is worth.. ???
  And yes, a day does make a lot of difference, but there is not much worse than getting caught short...
Cheers
.........Kauri


----------



## Kauri

Have gone long looking initially for the possible a=c.... also the overall correction may just be complete at 8750ish.. a bit shallower than anticipated but signs of a bullish market if it has??? will be watching the effect of bullish asian markets on her today for more clues...
Cheers
........Kauri


----------



## Kauri

Have closed out for a small gain... off to the dentist to get a crown done (wife reckons a Tiara would suit me better   ) .. will reassess when I return...
Cheers
.........Kauri


----------



## ithatheekret

Even the oil options didn't abate the fall , and they wobbled last night  , but it was a doozy of a drop . I wasn't game to ride it down , due to the round up of options last night . Euro has been good fun though .


----------



## Kauri

Right on cue Skippy has spotted a Roo shooter in the bushes... will wait for a swing to confirm before taking aim... ( I have a medium term upward bias) so this may just be a sucker move... maybe...I think....
Cheers
.........Kauri


----------



## soso

Daily EW.


----------



## Kauri

looking for 8970,Wa, to fall, until then it is still in the c wave... 
Cheers
.............Kauri


----------



## Kauri

set stop a couple of points south of B/E, in case the US goes back into last hour rally mode, alternative count (hindsite one) on 4Hourly.... now back to the scratcher for a couple of hours kip...
Cheers
........Kauri


----------



## Kauri

Still in two (or more) minds over where she is headed at the moment... if she breaks 8987 I'm in the long camp, otherwise I'm staying in my shorts. Nikkei not giving much direction at the moment...
Cheers
.........Kauri


----------



## Kauri

Think it is a touch clearer... just wiped off half of the labels and stood back,,  gone short at the moment, but cautiously waiting to see the big ticket anns tonight and which way they push us.
Cheers
.........Kauri


----------



## Kauri

Has got through, just, the W1=W3... now looking for the 1.62% at around 88.... gold and the metals complex overnight are on my side, as well as the Dow...
Cheers
.........Kauri


----------



## ithatheekret

I was looking at Skippies chart going back to the Reserves intervention in August . Since then , it has fallen through the crack in the floorboards and with the current chart setup over the last few days , it looks as though it has a little further to fall . I see a slight head and shoulder set up which could see us testing 87.30 ,

With the otherside of the carry trade currencies like the Swissie and the Yen , both showed weakness . 

The Yen which has set off alarms looks ready to test 110.05 . Although there are support levels at 110.30/35 , which seem to be a rescue . I used the 50 point pivot directed at 109.85 - 110.85 , noting that the oscillators were falling .

The Swissie looks as if it is recovering from being oversold and is at the coal face  , trying to pick its way through 112. with resistance around 112.8 . 
The support level at 111.80/90 looks to be etched in marble , but I can see another in the high 109's ........ let's hope it isn't tested , again oscillators were falling .


----------



## Kauri

added to short... not sure why...
Cheers
.........Kauri


----------



## Kauri

Kauri said:


> added to short... not sure why...
> Cheers
> .........Kauri




 And all closed out as stop hit... no gain on that move..
Cheers
..........Kauri


----------



## Kauri

Am running with a short from the top of the 4Hr channel... tight stop..
Cheers
..........Kauri


----------



## Kauri

Seems strange, the weak $US, improving commodity prices, rising interest rates, and the skippy is struggling to stay afloat... just may be some truth behind the Aussie bank rumours after all????  :bricks1:
Cheers
...........Kauri


----------



## Kauri

The horizontalS/R around 8850 is giving a bit of a fight currently.. a solid break through 8830 odd would be positive (or negative, depending where you sit).
Cheers
.........Kauri


----------



## Kauri

Got through the 8830's with a rush, now to see if she can hold on to it until the US start playing tonight.
Cheers
.........Kauri


----------



## tayser

dowwwwnnn she goes.







GMMA luvs it.


----------



## Kauri

At an interesting stage in several timeframes....
Cheers
..........Kauri


----------



## tayser

the yen is shizzling its pants atm.


----------



## reece55

tayser said:


> the yen is shizzling its pants atm.




LMAO....... shizzling......

Yep, it's gaining momentum like there is no tomorrow......

102 is the key number for the USD:JPY, will we see another intervention????

Interesting times....

Cheers


----------



## waz

AUD/USD has now fallen 3c in the space of 12 hours or so going from 0.8955 to 0.8655.

Massive drop considering the DOW is only expected to drop by about 100 pts in the next session.

So far the really only bad news to come out of America is oil prices. which usually pushes up the Au. Freddie Mac is old news

Just in the last 15 mins the Au has gone up 65 pips. Looks like we have a big enough bounce to say we have hit the bottom for the next dew hours.


----------



## chops_a_must

Kauri said:


> At an interesting stage in several timeframes....
> Cheers
> ..........Kauri



Don't have access to AUD/USD charts, but just by going on what I have heard from Cocoa Kohler on the news, I have a break down figure of 84c for some reason in my head.

Any other targets?


----------



## tayser

here ya are chops:






(sorry (again) for breaking everyone's non-widescreens )


----------



## buggalug

Just learning to trade Forex, so be nice, but I've gone long, I believe we had an expanding diagonal to complete C, at just broke through the 38.2% retracement, but have a pretty tight stop:


----------



## Kauri

chops_a_must said:


> Don't have access to AUD/USD charts, but just by going on what I have heard from Cocoa Kohler on the news, I have a break down figure of 84c for some reason in my head.
> 
> Any other targets?



 Chops,
           I have been looking for the low 85's for a couple of weeks now... since this correction started... that would put it at close to the 50% ret point... low 84's would give a=c, with the b being a 50% ret of a, if the count is right of course.. 
Cheers
.........Kauri


----------



## chops_a_must

Kauri said:


> Chops,
> I have been looking for the low 85's for a couple of weeks now... since this correction started... that would put it at close to the 50% ret point... low 84's would give a=c, with the b being a 50% ret of a, if the count is right of course..
> Cheers
> .........Kauri




Just looking at the charts there, the low 85's look more likely than the 84's. I thought it had gone slightly higher on the rebound, retesting 92 again.

But thanks for that.


----------



## Kauri

and maybe a W4 triangle to go on with...
Cheers
..........Kauri


----------



## Kauri

Triangle not withstanding, I have actually closed out my shorts, for various reasons, but as the Japanese market usually?? comes in initially on the other side of the overnight trend, will be watching for another dab a little later on... I think..
Cheers
.......Kauri


----------



## Kauri

Have been playing in the channel, taking a christmas gift of 50 odd points up and down... may take one more (hopefully ) before the Euro Zone comes on... maybe they will try to give it a large move with the low liquidity.. and maybe not.. remember the Euro this time last year, will be watching it closely this year.   
Cheers
.........Kauri


----------



## >Apocalypto<

Kauri said:


> Have been playing in the channel, taking a christmas gift of 50 odd points up and down... may take one more (hopefully ) before the Euro Zone comes on... maybe they will try to give it a large move with the low liquidity.. and maybe not.. remember the Euro this time last year, will be watching it closely this year.
> Cheers
> .........Kauri





Why what happened last year Kauri?


----------



## Kauri

Trade_It said:


> Why what happened last year Kauri?



 The $US was caned by "smart operators"?? using the typically low liquidity in the markets from thanksgiving Weds on... ended up taking 5 figures...   
Cheers
..........Kauri


----------



## ithatheekret

Poor ol' Skippy keeps on chipping away at the rock , could be a long innings , what with carry and ores all over the place . But she seems to slowly be climbing out of the spinnifex ...........

the AUD/JPY must have ol' man Emu driving today and I think he's been drinking that rocket fuel again 

went long awhile back now ........ even got to make a few coffees .

long the EUR/JPY cross too , just started to throw a wobbly .............


----------



## Kauri

Kauri said:


> Have been playing in the channel, taking a christmas gift of 50 odd points up and down... *may take one more (hopefully ) before the Euro Zone comes on... maybe they will try to give it a large move with the low liquidity*.. and maybe not.. remember the Euro this time last year, will be watching it closely this year.
> Cheers
> .........Kauri




Seems a bit early... but not to worry.. was hoping for another swing through the channel... will just have to stay long... for now anyway..   
Cheers
.........Kauri


----------



## ithatheekret

I've had a good think about the chart today .

The spiral off the highs has pulled up , looks like a side ways motion , much like the Euro was in last week bit of chipping .

A little bottom fishing in the troughs could yeild a nice pick up , but the factors needed to empower the play are after entry , the cross needs to push past 87.15 area , could stall around there too . If it goes on, aim for 87.5's for a test area . If it bangs about 87.5 look for tight ranges , before it can attempt 87.9's . If it hits the 87.9s look for 88.55ish for a break into the 88.7,s and 9's , before getting toward the 90.17 point .

That's what my line points to . 90.17(8/9)


----------



## Kauri

Taken a small short... a lot of stop hunting going on today... on all major pairs... 
Cheers
.........kauri


----------



## ithatheekret

Made the high 87's resistance may push it back down to low 087.5's or 4's yet and bang about in a tight range , unless some thoughtful bank comes along and gets helpful . A lot of positioning going on , couple of footprints in the sand ........... I expect a few 10-15 pips band ranges for awhile until Europe finishes breakfast  , I just picked up the drop area 45's and 48's long added them to an 87.3 pozzi and I know there's some minor resistance around 87.5's , just have to see if it can push through it again . The resistance @87.777 is what I want to see hammered at , 87.5 resistance is harsh though .........


----------



## ithatheekret

Should of looked at the chart first oops ........ okay we're at 87.5/4 area now  , this is where I expect a bit of the old Atari tennis .


----------



## Kauri

At 50%ret of last small up-leg so have stop at B/E... playing it safe as with the low volume it doesn't take much to push her around.. 
Cheers
.........Kauri


----------



## ithatheekret

Low volume is like pulling teeth .........

Had an urge to do something daring at 8738 .

I know slap me silly and call me stupid .


----------



## ithatheekret

yes I did @ 8704 big time


----------



## Kauri

Brought the stop down to lock in 1.5 R/R odd as she plumbs the possible lower channel... 

ithatheekret.. are you long or short??.. your original post sounded longish??
Cheers
.........Kauri


----------



## Kauri

Stop taken at best part of 2R/R... will wait and see what the Europeans have in mind for us tonight...   
Cheers
.........Kauri


----------



## Kauri

I wonder..... :aliena:  
Cheers
.........Kauri


----------



## Kauri

Why wonder... when you can ask the question...
:grenade: 
Cheers
..........Kauri


----------



## ithatheekret

Yes long Kauri , reduced a few of those positions , couldn't resist the profit .

Got one pozzi left will hold it .


----------



## Kauri

ithatheekret said:


> Yes long Kauri , reduced a few of those positions , couldn't resist the profit .
> 
> Got one pozzi left will hold it .




Wide stops...happy days..

Cheers
........Kauri


----------



## Kauri

Seems a bit contrarian, but I am leaning towards another bout of risk aversion.... will be watching to see how the Japanese see things after thier break...
Cheers
.........Kauri


----------



## ithatheekret

I think the focus on the Yen is where our thought train should take us .

Where running on technicals and events at present . Fundamentally the Yen will not be backed by a rate rise anywhere soon , the Japanese economy sucks and the policies / actions of the administrations are a bit shy on the growth theories , so my leaning is towards a strength period and a weakness period . I see the Yen going back towards 110 first , say in a month or so and possibly lower . The current action being more of an event than a trend , $100 oil is a huge threat to the Japanese and I don't see that retreating too much lately , even if it get's back into the $80's , I feel it would only be a slower kill off for their economy .

Mind you we've tested 107's , so a retest has to be on the cards , especially with all the strength calls in the market and at present that's only 50 pips away .


----------



## ithatheekret

Back into .885 push , could retreat a little again , see if it can hold the .855 , 50 area for the next leg , expect some US profit taking too .

If she can get into 886/7's and hold her ground on a 855/50 retreat we could see in 89 tonight .


----------



## Kauri

Kauri said:


> Seems a bit contrarian, but I am leaning towards another bout of risk aversion.... will be watching to see how the Japanese see things after thier break...
> Cheers
> .........Kauri




 Heading for the lower edge of the 4Hourly channel... if she gets there that will just about complete the 50% ret of the last major upleg...
Cheers
..........Kauri


----------



## Kauri

Interesting to see how strong the old support will turn out to be...
Cheers
.........Kauri


----------



## ithatheekret

Yep my trailer got hit , thank heavens I'd set it too .


----------



## Kauri

Stepped out for a while to get my hair cut and come back to find it is not only the hair that got cut..  :afro:    Stop set just above the 50% ret of 3orC got taken... sitting on the sidelines now watching...
 Apparently ADIA getting set for 7.5Bln of Citi has convinced everyone the markets, and risk, is OK again... for today at least...  
Cheers
.........Kauri


----------



## Barndat

Ha ha sorry but I can't stop laughing at your haircut joke Kauri, ha ha.
I have been following your enlightening posts with much interest. 
Cheers
Peter


----------



## ithatheekret

Hey , Kauri . I use a Oanda practice platform to make eachways on , set indi's and usually do opp. in a/c's , one 4 pos and one 4 schwinging  , but it works for me especially on hangover mornings


----------



## Kauri

ithatheekret said:


> Hey , Kauri . I use a Oanda practice platform to make eachways on , set indi's and usually do opp. in a/c's , one 4 pos and one 4 schwinging  , but it works for me especially on hangover mornings




 Instead of using a stop I could use a buy stop to cover my shorts *and* open a long position simultaneously but as the way I enter trades has a fair amount of discretion built in I prefer to enter a reverse trade manually, whilst on the other hand being quite comfortable with auto GSL's... as it turned out I wouldn't have gone long the Skippy on the last surge anyways.. (except in a delayed hindsight trade of course    ).
 I'll let her settle now and see if another trade opportunity pops up, or not... as my old father used to say.. " don't go down the mine son, there's plenty of coal in the yard.." 
Cheers
.........Kauri


----------



## ithatheekret

I just noted the USD/JPY is changing mood , I think it's just thrown a hammer ?

I wonder if that signals an about face it tested the waters of 107 , could be an AUD + ( touch wood )


----------



## Kauri

If anyone follows flags.......
   Mind you my alter ego just reminded me that they often play the last post as the colours are lowered....  :bounce:
Cheers
.........Kauri


----------



## Kauri

Have been watching a triangle form on the 1Hourly, but, as with the previous flag, I can't really identify a strong trend to place it in, so I'll just be watching... and waiting... I think..
Cheers
........Kauri


----------



## ithatheekret

The stop hunters are in action on a few crosses AUD and the JPY .

Nasty little creatures they are trying to break away from fundamentals


----------



## Kauri

Looking for a short trade...   
Cheers
..........Kauri


----------



## Kauri

Kauri said:


> Looking for a short trade...
> Cheers
> ..........Kauri




and stop down to B/E..
Cheers 
.........Kauri


----------



## Kauri

Kauri said:


> and stop down to B/E..
> Cheers
> .........Kauri




 Survived the first push, just... 
Cheers
........Kauri


----------



## Kauri

Kauri said:


> Survived the first push, just...
> Cheers
> ........Kauri




 Moved stop down to 50% ret of last down-leg... seems to be finding a bit of support at the round 88 which is also the .62 of the last intermediate up-leg.... or something like that... I think.. 
Cheers
..........Kauri


----------



## Kauri

Moved stop up as I think we may rally for a oiece??
Cheers
..........Kauri


----------



## ithatheekret

I think Skippies trying to get some schwiing ............


----------



## ithatheekret

If the retreat through 88.10 fails be wary , could see some Yen hit our indexes today too .


----------



## Kauri

A tad early yet but am considering a short... if the planets all line up... later???
Cheers
..........Kauri


----------



## Kauri

Kauri said:


> A tad early yet but am considering a short... if the planets all line up... later???
> Cheers
> ..........Kauri



Taken a small short... will add to if/when a swing appears...  
Cheers
..........Kauri


----------



## Kauri

Kauri said:


> Taken a small short... will add to if/when a swing appears...
> Cheers
> ..........Kauri




 And no swing...yet   to add to original position!!! 
Cheers
........Kauri


----------



## Kauri

and that trade now closed out.. 
Cheers
..........Kauri


----------



## AndrewM123

Do you think the large unexpected trade deficit send the aussie south


----------



## Kauri

AndrewM123 said:


> Do you think the large unexpected trade deficit send the aussie south



 Didn't help, but I think the Yen trade has a bigger influence at the moment???
 Cheers
..........kauri


----------



## Kauri

Flagging a bit of interest??? maybe..
Cheers
...........Kauri


----------



## Kauri

I have a couple of possible counts(at least) running here but the one I am trading is currently looking for another fall soon.. as am I.   .
Cheers
..........Kauri


----------



## Kauri

Kauri said:


> I have a couple of possible counts(at least) running here but the one I am trading is currently looking for another fall soon.. as am I.  .
> Cheers
> ..........Kauri




Tumbling...
Cheers
..........Kauri


----------



## soso

My view on Daily.


----------



## Kauri

Not too sure on this... but the way I am trading her currently..
Cheers
.........Kauri


----------



## ithatheekret

Missed my spot by miles, might see it in , won't hold my breathe though 
(86.40) currently doing a Mexican wave well above that ........


----------



## Kauri

Looking interesting for a W5??   
Cheers
..........Kauri


----------



## Barndat

I might well be looking interesting for a W5 but it had better get on with it as it will surely rise next Wednesday the day of the USA interest rate drop don't u think....???


----------



## Kauri

Barndat said:


> I might well be looking interesting for a W5 but it had better get on with it as it will surely rise next Wednesday the day of the USA interest rate drop don't u think....???




Yes,but NFP's Friday first... 
Cheers
........Kauri

PS... I seem to remember an option barrier lurking around the 87 mark...


----------



## ithatheekret

Approaching 8750 but hesitantly , so much so if it fails to break past the area I'm selling it down for a spurt .


----------



## ithatheekret

last rush of pips have moved it just past the 87.5 pivot , make or break either way will pay off for the watchers . currently touching 87.6 expecting a nudge back from top hitters .....


----------



## ithatheekret

Just been going over the trade deficit figures , not pretty , exports down 3%  not that it's anything unusual , but capacity sux .

........ this will be a challenge for Kev to conquer .

The drought stuck it too grains etc. but ports have once again stuck it to mining ...........

If they don't figure out quickly that infrastructure is an economic highway  , I reckon Skippy will need ice skates soon , with this months data though  , I would assume she'll get sent off to the sin bin by traders .


----------



## Kauri

Waiting to see if all the planets line up... NFP is the key everyone's awaiting.. I think..
Cheers
..........Kauri


----------



## Kauri

Is it atriangle, is it a flag, is it fasyer than a speeding bullet???
Cheers
..........Kauri
Ps.. gramatically, the red is having an affect..


----------



## >Apocalypto<

tonight was a cracker! 15 pips on a usd chf trade earlier,

took 60 pips out in 3-4 min between the eur & aud vs usd closed them out and bed time.   

hope you caught some action Kauri & ithatheekret !


----------



## ithatheekret

Trade_It said:


> tonight was a cracker! 15 pips on a usd chf trade earlier,
> 
> took 60 pips out in 3-4 min between the eur & aud vs usd closed them out and bed time.
> 
> hope you caught some action Kauri & ithatheekret !




Still flying along here cobber


----------



## Kauri

ithatheekret said:


> Still flying along here cobber



Still flying the flag..  :aus: 
Cheers
.........Kauri


----------



## ithatheekret

She certainly climbed that wall , but that glass door charge she took through 8825 gave her the wobbles , doing a Mexican wave again , I'm short .

Don't pay heed to that though I'm swing'n the cat around on the ride 8823's twice now , haven't chased both ways though .

Seems like the crowds are back or part of them ........ bit thin lately .


----------



## ithatheekret

AUD/JPY scored off a 98.11 pick up late in the play too .

Is it me or has activity picked up ?


----------



## Kauri

Nice fast little clip to start the week... methinks the carry trades may come under pressure this week going by my take on the Dow and possible news coming out....
Cheers
..........Kauri



> December 10: UBS may announce a write-down of 8-10 BLN CHF related to the US credit market crisis accompanied by a fresh profit warning tomorrow, Sunday newspaper SonntagsZeitung reported. According to the report the UBS board is meeting this weekend to discuss the issue. The meeting comes two days ahead of UBS investor"s day in London on Tuesday. At the end of October, the bank had announced a third-quarter pretax loss of 726 MLN CHF, citing a 4.2 BLN CHF loss in investment banking due to substantial losses and write-downs in trading positions related to the US subprime mortgage market.


----------



## ithatheekret

I like your charts Kauri , easy to view and read . onya


----------



## Kauri

Not sure of the count, but we'll go with it for now... I thunk...
Cheers
..........Kauri



> The trade minister is adamant that the new government is not looking to intervene in the FX market to cool AUD strength. Mr Crean says "let the markets decide".


----------



## ithatheekret

The last time it stalled @ the 88's where I rev. , it went down to the 866's and I've been scouring the chart and indicators all day and have got game enough to call the recent return to 866's as a double bottom . The annoying thing is that has taken an entire cent to figure it out , but I expect a bit of turbulence around the 88 area again and it's coming into view quick again .

Now is it a tight band we end up with or do we get to poke 9017 in the eye ?


----------



## Kauri

ithatheekret said:


> The last time it stalled @ the 88's where I rev. , it went down to the 866's and I've been scouring the chart and indicators all day and have got game enough to call the recent return to 866's as a double bottom . The annoying thing is that has taken an entire cent to figure it out , but I expect a bit of turbulence around the 88 area again and it's coming into view quick again .
> 
> Now is it a tight band we end up with or do we get to poke 9017 in the eye ?




 Changed my count a touch.. or two..     but am looking at the possibility of a bit of a downer.. ??

  PS.. a magnet for the Euro later??...    An estimated E300mn 1.4690 strike rolls off at today"s 10am Eastern NY option cut (15:00GMT). 
Cheers
........Kauri


----------



## ithatheekret

It looks like it's stalling again Kauri .

Skippy been at the bar or old man emu has hit the brakes before the rabbit fence ............

second try now ........ can't even get the ball down yet .

*&^%$$#@!


----------



## Kauri

ithatheekret said:


> It looks like it's stalling again Kauri .
> 
> Skippy been at the bar or old man emu has hit the brakes before the rabbit fence ............
> 
> second try now ........ can't even get the ball down yet .
> 
> *&^%$$#@!




Hi ithatheekret;
  Yes, may be too, I'm out of my longs and eying off the shorts, for better or for worse... may wait a whiles and see how she goes from here...
88 seems well defended??? haven't heard of anything, other than obvious placed stops lurking there..   
Cheers
........Kauri


----------



## ithatheekret

I have a pinger set @ 87867 . a little one just in case


----------



## ithatheekret

I might go watch the Yen crosses the roo will have me walking in front of a truck , the things I do , I don't know , now I'm all empty the only AUD I have is in the bank . Pray for the pinger ..........


----------



## Kauri

ithatheekret said:


> I might go watch the Yen crosses the roo will have me walking in front of a truck , the things I do , I don't know , now I'm all empty the only AUD I have is in the bank . Pray for the pinger ..........




I hear Hedge Funds..  :run:    are piling into the cable before the data releases...   
Cheers
...........Kauri


----------



## ithatheekret

I heard it was a japanese bank 

but I don't buy Brown :


----------



## stesens

hello everyone!

I have to trasfer quite good amount of money from GPB to AUD by late January 2008...

it's better to wait? as the AUD get weaker? or opposite?

Thanks to share your views.


----------



## AndrewM123

I am still holding longs.(AUD/USD) with a large s.l.   Looking for mid 90's...... It could go up....UNLESS it goes down..


----------



## ithatheekret

Sounds rather exotic to me    , I've never traded it .

oh that's what the seashells were for ..........


----------



## Kauri

ithatheekret said:


> Sounds rather exotic to me  , I've never traded it .
> 
> oh that's what the seashells were for ..........




 I just glanced out the window at Lucky Bay on the Swan River and either it's a plurry big exotic catfish or my aud count splashing around in the shallows..      :fish:
Cheers
.........Kauri


----------



## ithatheekret

I wish I could agree with you Andrew , but I can't see anything happening in European time , the 88 brickwall and the 111.7/8 on the Yen are pushing mega digits about . The market itself is thin and easy to push about or slow up with digital wallets .........

I was reading a forex blog complaining about them , I didn't form an opinion , but there was suggestion of crisis events was forcing option plays as last resorts . 

Last month there was a rumour of someone doing a fat fingers on a desk and causing havoc in a rather large bank , that is under repair . I didn't see anything big happening though . To me there all stops and options defences , just as long as I don't have to pay for someone elses stuff up . Like stttaaa sttaa stttaaatt state bank ..............


----------



## ithatheekret

Something outside the box ....... skippies spike is to 88 and oil spike is to 88 .

metals looks to be struggling ........

hmmm 88.41 is what my oil chart says


----------



## stesens

stesens said:


> hello everyone!
> 
> I have to trasfer quite good amount of money from GPB to AUD by late January 2008...
> 
> it's better to wait? as the AUD get weaker? or opposite?
> 
> Thanks to share your views.




anyone tha can help me?


----------



## Barndat

Hi Stesens, if Cable appreciates against the AUD, you will receive more AU$ for your Pounds. Is that the answer you were looking for...??


----------



## wayneL

stesens said:


> anyone tha can help me?



Pure punt. Tossing a coin would be as good as any opinion.


----------



## Kauri

A Downer we go???
Cheers
.........Kauri


----------



## stesens

Barndat said:


> Hi Stesens, if Cable appreciates against the AUD, you will receive more AU$ for your Pounds. Is that the answer you were looking for...??




hi!
sort of...but who is Cable?


----------



## Kauri

although the Vindicators suggested a short I am sitting back.. (cooking pizza actually   ) as my E/W count pointed to a W4 ret... may now head off to a W5 (as i immerse myself in cooking a romano +parmesan sauce base), but hey, ahhh,,, dough in the keyboard is not good!!!!!
Cheers
...........Kauri


----------



## Kauri

I would hazard a guess that the W5 is in/nearly in, but as I have just topped up my glass with a beauty home made romano-parmesan pizza base and poured a generous lashing of Glenfidich on the pizza, it may be time to retire before I am sprung....
Cheers
........... Dave A


----------



## ithatheekret

Don't feel bad about it , but the whisky on the pizza , new taste sensations .

Just so you know , last night I crashed in the den after two bottles of Yalumba Galway Shiraz , woke up with a blanket over me . 

Rather fuzzily I noted I was up on the EUR/JPY and the USD/JPY , good start for the day , even with the hangover .


----------



## ithatheekret

I had a sell order on Skippy @ 8890 missed it by a hair . That was the last heavy sell area , but ..... it looks like old man emu is at the wheel .


----------



## ithatheekret

88746 & 747 long here .


----------



## ithatheekret

nice cuppa forming on the 1 min.


----------



## ithatheekret

One good thing about hangovers , they make you numb and fearless ......


----------



## ithatheekret

I closed on the 88 overlap , haven't made mind up on next rentry point , was thinking 8860


----------



## Barndat

stesens said:


> hi!
> sort of...but who is Cable?




Cable = GBP


----------



## ithatheekret

Just went long on the 8860 stop buy


----------



## Kauri

am running a small long... with very tight stops... looking for a quick clip
Cheers
........Kauri


----------



## Kauri

Kauri said:


> am running a small long... with very tight stops... looking for a quick clip
> Cheers
> ........Kauri




stop set just below last bar low to lock in small gain... on auto-pilot now until FOMC..
Cheers
.........Kauri


----------



## Kauri

Kauri said:


> stop set just below last bar low to lock in small gain... on auto-pilot now until FOMC..
> Cheers
> .........Kauri



no rest for the wicked...under and out...
Cheers
.........Kauri

PS..some rumbling that the risk of the Fed going 50bp is being hedged more. Freddie Mac are slated to have lost a further $10-12bn in credit write offs according to their conference call.


----------



## ithatheekret

stesens said:


> hello everyone!
> 
> I have to trasfer quite good amount of money from GPB to AUD by late January 2008...
> 
> it's better to wait? as the AUD get weaker? or opposite?
> 
> Thanks to share your views.





Yesterday 1 English Pound = 2.31968 the equiv. of $1AUD being 0.43109 Pence . 

the weekend close price was 1pd.=2.31954 AUD

Todays ..... 1pd.= 2.32014 AUD

So as a guess and a guess only , you'll either get around 2.33 or 2.29 at the lower end per AUD .


----------



## Kauri

Skippy 4 hourly... in a W3 Of C... maybe.
Cheers
...........Kauri


----------



## Kauri

not trading it but maybe a touch of consolidation/retracing is due... before the main trend resumes???
Cheers
........Kauri


----------



## ithatheekret

Your chart is a perfect example of why a trailing stop is a safety bet .

I was long and short yesterday , but after waking up to see that 2 cent flop ..... after my last 8888 exit . 

Well ........  I'm glad I went to bed .......... 2 cents ........ strewth , sniff , sniff ....... bank or treasury .


----------



## Kauri

not taking any bets on her currently, ... if the stories/rumours coming out of the US get any traction then it's all aboard the euphoria express for the Dow and carries... :sheep:    and when were these sort of rumours last ignored.... 

Good night, America, how are you?
Don't you know me I'm your sub-prime run,
I'm a wreck just likeThe City of New Orleans,
I'll be gone five hundred ticks when the day is done.

Cheers
..........kauri


----------



## Kauri

It seems the Europeans are avid readers of the WSJ.. 
Cheers
..........Kauri


----------



## ithatheekret

I'll fess up Kauri , it hit 8849 and I shorted it again . To make you happy I have completely trashed the keyboard on that trade and have had to borrow the kids one ........ 

looking at it , its a precipitous trade at present and pennies may have to do.


----------



## Kauri

ithatheekret said:


> I'll fess up Kauri , it hit 8849 and I shorted it again . To make you happy I have completely trashed the keyboard on that trade and have had to borrow the kids one ........
> 
> looking at it , its a precipitous trade at present and pennies may have to do.





  me too...
 Cheers
.......Kevin R


----------



## Kauri

and stop to B/E... come hell or high rumour.... 
Cheers
........Kauri


----------



## ithatheekret

might set an 88208 reversal up in my order


----------



## ithatheekret

Managed 88254 back in again same set .


----------



## ithatheekret

looking for 88277 for close or add .


----------



## Kauri

i'm looking for the 38pc line to give an inkling of where she is headed...

the Fed is tipped to adopt a liquidity plan which 
will be fairly similar to the ECB"s model in the end.  (Is that crank up the presses and stuff everyones Chrissy stocking??) 
Cheers
.........Kauri


----------



## ithatheekret

didn't get the top again 88261 , but rev was 88231 . Not too happy , a bounce can wipe that out in a blink .

88155 whew .......


----------



## Kauri

out at even...   

Thanks Uncle Ben..  
Cheers
..........Kauri



> December 12.  The Fed is joining four other central banks to inject liquidity,
> entering into a 6-month, $24 bln swap facility with the BOC, BOE, ECB, SNB.  The
> second piece is a series of four funds auctions, the first two of which will be
> for $20 bln.  The first term auction will take place Monday and extend funds
> over 28 days.  The second auction will be December 20, extending funds over 35
> days.  The next two auctions will be on January 14 and January 28, though their
> amounts will be determined at a future date.


----------



## ithatheekret

I"m playing a small pip game on the Euro . Check the 1 min and look at the little peaks toward 147 had fun there , but along the bottom ....... I have made 200/ 500/ etc on swinging in/out and waiting , got three out of it . 

risky I know , but it was slow with little surts and someones painting a ceiling .


----------



## ithatheekret

I just finished a little chat with my account manager , it started about the complicated order format , you know cancel order if and so selections , which you need to reverse . I joking said to him tell me when the AUD puts the brakes on and he said it is due to heavy buying into US markets .


----------



## Kauri

ithatheekret said:


> I just finished a little chat with my account manager , it started about the complicated order format , you know cancel order if and so selections , which you need to reverse . I joking said to him tell me when the AUD puts the brakes on and he said it is due to heavy buying into US markets .




 Just wondering if the latest Fed moves are better overall for the USD or the AUD?? 
...or better for those inexplicably in the Know??  *A large US investment bank who appeared to have prior knowledge of the Fed development was seen buying Kiwi heavily off the lows in Asia and Europe.*
 Cheers
...........Kauri


----------



## Kauri

Taken a small long, looking at the trianglley thingy, if it breaks will look to add, if it fails will bail ASAP..
Cheers
.......Kauri


----------



## ithatheekret

Kauri said:


> Taken a small long, looking at the trianglley thingy, if it breaks will look to add, if it fails will bail ASAP..
> Cheers
> .......Kauri






Ditto ....... and Mrs. Ith has hit Adelaide Exchange Jewellers today , the darling she is , I wanted a watch she goes and get ingots .........


----------



## Kauri

what with the Nikkei trying its hand at a spot of base-jumping I've moved the stop up undercurrent bar/triangle edge.
Cheers
.........Kauri


----------



## Kauri

trying for another little clip (long) on either a W4 or....  
Cheers
.........Kauri



> The
> AUD/USD has attained a bid tone in early Asia with model funds rumoured to be
> the main buyers. There is talk in Asia of residual demand for AUD/JPY out of
> Tokyo that might flow through today and help to underpin the AUD/USD after the
> steep fall yesterday.


----------



## Kauri

Kauri said:


> trying for another little clip (long) on either a W4 or....
> Cheers
> .........Kauri



and have taken that one off the table.. will see what, if any, other opportunities pop up now
Cheers
.........Kauri


----------



## ithatheekret

Hi Kauri ,

I'll fess up again mate , last night I had a couple of longs that had the trailers hit , then the entry prices suddenly got past on the way down , I jumped on the ride in a few crosses , chickening and closing the shorts early , 48 pips in one case . 

But I've taken up the AUD/USD today @ 8748 after retreating a little lower than that for the second time . I lost track of the Euro , too tired to concentrate was the factor last night , to be honest , so it was close shop time . These 5AM mornings just to keep an eye on the Septics are wearing me down , thank heavens Chrissie is coming , but unfortunately school holidays started today 

..........have grabbed to Euro long too @ 145.98 ....... frankly though , both entries look shaky , only the size of the placings is making any difference in the movements , and I wouldn't hesitate to close them before the trailers came into view ( set at 10 ) .


----------



## ithatheekret

I might add too , conditions allowing , I feel like stacking today .


----------



## ithatheekret

You just gotta luv volatility . 2 @ 146.381 still holding opening , widened the trailer , looks more like a semi  chickened out ..

Sold 1 AUD pos @ 8778 ...... 2 left 

needed some margin back


----------



## Kauri

Looking o/s to me but my two bottom vindicators are rangebound so .... if the US likes the USD as much as the Europeans... mmm..
Cheers
..........Kauri


----------



## ithatheekret

8788 was my last exit I think , then it was a Chrissie work show ........


----------



## ithatheekret

OOH AHH , saved by a booze up it looks , thank heavens for Aussie traditions .


----------



## >Apocalypto<

Well well well what can I say.........

AUD EUR vs USD, USD vs CHF really played out well tonight....... tonight was a very nice one, all the plans went off with out hitch and over 150 pips reward off the three for stepping in.... 

won't gloat any more or i will go broke next week...... have a good weekend fellow pip hunters!

By the way, any reason for the meltdown tonight on the eur/usd & aud/usd?


----------



## Kauri

skippy unnder pressure..
 Better- than-expected US industrial production..
 metals are helping to pressure the AUD/USD too with copper prices falling over two cents a pound ..
 Gold prices remain heavy ...
  lot of short an medium longs geting taken out with fall below stromg support T/L..
 the dow...hence risk  
Cheers
.........Kauri


----------



## Kauri

stop set. bed beckons
Cheers
..........Kauri


----------



## ithatheekret

Trade_It said:


> Well well well what can I say.........
> 
> AUD EUR vs USD, USD vs CHF really played out well tonight....... tonight was a very nice one, all the plans went off with out hitch and over 150 pips reward off the three for stepping in....
> 
> won't gloat any more or i will go broke next week...... have a good weekend fellow pip hunters!
> 
> By the way, any reason for the meltdown tonight on the eur/usd & aud/usd?





Gloat TI that was a good run down the platform to catch those trains .

Good show !


----------



## AndrewM123

ithatheekret said:


> Gloat TI that was a good run down the platform to catch those trains .
> 
> Good show !







Excellent show.....
A serious smacking for me tho


----------



## Kauri

At last the weekly is showing that we are around the top of the expected W2 area... will possibly dip deeper into it though..
 on the hourly have pulled the stop up as the minor W5 may be done...
Cheers
.........Kauri


----------



## Kauri

Just may be time to start looking at both sides of the argument... for me well into the new year when the markets, and I, fire up again...
Cheers
..........Kauri



> a newspaper article which quotes a grim outlook
> for interest rates during 2008. They quote an internal Treasury forecast which
> expects inflations to remain above 3%, the top of the RBA target band,
> throughout 2008. The report says inflation could reach 4% by March making
> further rate hikes a near certainty in the New Year. The only danger to stop a
> rate hike in February or March is more liquidity concerns emanating from the CDO
> debacle where banks build in a rate rising themselves.


----------



## ithatheekret

I'm all over the board to see the new year in .

Short on skippy and the swissie usd swap .

Running both ways on cable , came up for air in Asian trade , found the snorkel by the looks too .......... buying dips , selling peaks , in and out as I am not convinced yet , lots of funds at work .

Long the EUR/ GBP and EUR/CHF  couldn't help myself ..........


............. and still long the Yen , well one pozzie and a couple of very recent add ons , boring stuff ..........  looks like it just sat on a rocket too .

Now I'm back off to scare myself chitless on cable schwings .


----------



## ithatheekret

The only entries I that didn't get attacked by the trailing stop were the short on Skippy and my schwings on Cable . Fortunately these both made up for the losses and some . The Yen ...... yeah well can't make up its mind if it wants 110 or 116 , so a long 114.5 will have to do for now ...def. not imp.
but as Abbott reckons ........ chit happens . Nice spray of dust to clean off , before next year , darn lucky I didn't graze my knees in prayer .


----------



## ithatheekret

Third spike approaching 87.95 hmmmm.... what to do 


wait for 88 to short I think .


----------



## ithatheekret

well the buy was in the 88.01's   so ....87.97 it was .


----------



## ithatheekret

Well Skippy took me for a hairy ride yesterday , I've actually managed to get out with my teeth and enough for a few boxes of brown champagne .

Shorted the Pound , which has done wonderfully since my 2.084 entry and certainly made up for the extra heartbeats pumped out thanks to Skippy .

......... closed out that poz @ 198.42 on the buy bid .


----------



## Kauri

Like the look of Skip this morning... added some more..
Cheers
..........Kauri


----------



## Kauri

The lack of the Nippon brigade has made it a bit thin, but once the Euros, Brits and Yanks come in it may pick up somewhat...
Cheers
..........Kauri



> The first
> move was down this morning in thin conditions as an investment bank was noticed
> hitting all the bids on the dealing platforms. This tripped a few weak stops
> along the way starting just below 0.8890. This selling did not last long however
> with a plethora of banks/investment banks seen buying AUD off the lows as if
> there was no tomorrow. It obviously doesn"t pay to be bearish AUD in the current
> environment with falls in such indexes as the Baltic Dry not about to faze real
> money players. Perceived resistance around 0.8920/30 was weak and the AUD surged
> past 0.8950 before running out of steam at 0.8962. The AUD has only pulled back
> modestly since and this warns that the market could be ready to go again on the
> topside when the next session gets underway. Traders weren"t saying much about
> the moves today but the big players seem intent on differentiating between anglo
> currencies with GBP and now CAD on the nose whilst AUD and NZD remain in hot
> demand. Talk of a 50bps imminent US rate cut is obviously supporting AUD.


----------



## caribean

Yeah,the Aussie was the best choice this morning....
I rushed home about 9:30 and took the JPY gap, didn't check the news at all..


----------



## Kauri

Trade closed out in the early hours.. :sleeping:  watching now to see if she pulls back into a W4 ret.. unless my count doesn't add up...again..
Cheers
.........Kauri


----------



## Kauri

a well defended barrier at 90... si I thought I would help out and throw my two bobs worth at it as well....
 incidentally... a few yards lie at 150 on the Euro also, so if they give way...   .. 
Cheers
.........Kauri


----------



## ithatheekret

I'm looking to cover around .8877ish


----------



## Kauri

ithatheekret said:


> I'm looking to cover around .8877ish




Min area for a W4... good for a bounce??? before.....   .. W4 should/could/might end up between 8890 and 8850.. the 50% and 38% rets..
Apparently a mass of Asian concerns piled onto poor Skippy and he buckled under the weight.. 
Cheers
........Kauri


----------



## ithatheekret

Cheers for that mate , noticed the metals were getting dragged around the rooms , be nice to see a recovery in the base metals before we open , better chances on a second coming by the looks ............


----------



## Kauri

ithatheekret said:


> Cheers for that mate , noticed the metals were getting dragged around the rooms , *be nice to see a recovery in the base metals before we open* , better chances on a second coming by the looks ............




Someone is swinging the lead.   
 What with the metals complex pulling its neck in and the baltic dry sinking.. not to mention gold...
Cheers
..........Kauri


----------



## Kauri

nothing I'm willing to trade right now, but none the less interesting at the moment... more US data and earnings out tonight  ... and the fact that a lot in Japan are still long currencies against the yen and looking, along with some investment banks, to offload into rallies, pulling other crosses along with them, not to mention the impulsive downward momentum, and also it being very windy in Perth today, will keep me looking for selling ops across the board.
Cheers
.......Kauri


----------



## Kauri

the wind is still blowing here in Perth... something to keep your eye on whilst she grinds back from oversold.... :aus:  
Cheers
.........Kauri


----------



## Kauri

Kauri said:


> the wind is still blowing here in Perth... something to keep your eye on whilst she grinds back from oversold.... :aus:
> Cheers
> .........Kauri



 the wind has dropped for the times being... but it may spring up again...
Cheers
.......Kauri


----------



## theasxgorilla

I noticed that the AUD is performing well as the AUD/GBP, around the .45 area.  Given that we've been down around .39 not so long ago, and UK house prices are meant to be heading south, the next couple of years might not be a bad time to emmigrate.

ASX.G


----------



## Kauri

slept through the alarum on this one... will now wait and see if a retrace swing i.e. aW1/W2 comes in..  
Cheers
.........Kauri


----------



## Kauri

gone short... belatedly..
Cheers
..........Kauri


----------



## Kauri

closed out at B/E   
Cheers
.........Kauri


----------



## >Apocalypto<

Kauri said:


> closed out at B/E
> Cheers
> .........Kauri




I saw that rally Karui,

funny thing was at the same time eur/usd aud/usd and the usd/chf all had rising green bars. strange stuff....

i am spectating for the time being.


----------



## Kauri

Trade_It said:


> I saw that rally Karui,
> 
> funny thing was at the same time eur/usd aud/usd and the usd/chf all had rising green bars. strange stuff....
> 
> i am spectating for the time being.




 On the back of the Nikkei... via the leaks of the 150Bln stimulation that Bush needs..
Cheers
..........Kauri


----------



## ithatheekret

I think we are going to see a little strength in the USD , wait for it ..... before you start tossing rocks  

because there will be , as today , a massive repatriation of US funds offshore , it's something I've been waiting for and Jan ain't over , Feb could see a return , but I think it will be in dribbles . SSDD .

add that to rhetoric from both sides of the Atlantic and volatility will give us some nice ranges .


----------



## >Apocalypto<

Kauri said:


> On the back of the Nikkei... via the leaks of the 150Bln stimulation that Bush needs..
> Cheers
> ..........Kauri




i have a little feeling in my tummy that london tonight may be anti USD, I will be watching the 1 hour eurusd and aud/usd 1 hour.

that's my opinion only, not based on anything reported.


----------



## >Apocalypto<

Trade_It said:


> i have a little feeling in my tummy that london tonight may be anti USD, I will be watching the 1 hour eurusd and aud/usd 1 hour.
> 
> that's my opinion only, not based on anything reported.




hmm looking like a short play is more the option.


----------



## ithatheekret

Skips got some bounce going , the US has flipper , dolphins submerge


----------



## Kauri

lucky to have got away with B/E today on skippy short as I traded againstthe vindicators I use to validate a trade..   At the time both were warning of a change in direction.. I ignored my own guidelines and paid up..
 Currently they indicate that a


----------



## ithatheekret

Everything was going great until CNBC blurted out the BHP mulling the upping of RIO bid . 

They were immediately turned off in disgust , $1200.00 profit went to $580 in a blink on Skippy .

The UK retail numbers smashed Cable , quickest 100 odd pips I've ever made , rate cuts , rate cuts, and rate cuts please and a nice soft landing for Cable around 192 would be nice ..............


----------



## Kauri

at a bit of a crossroad with skip.. am favouring a move up but that is purely speculation.. so am on the side-lines until she proves up one way or tother... in fact apart from an on-going short on the ASX200 and gold, my book is blank... (shares excluded of course)
Cheers
..........Kauri


----------



## ithatheekret

I'm still trying to gauge the movement mate , short Cable and the EUR/CHF and short the Euro at present , about to close that too .  Haven't touched Swissie today ..... yet  

I was short Skippy , closed it a short while ago . Might wait for an hour before I commit anything .


----------



## Kauri

Yep, the USD seems to be picking up a bit on repatriation due to the turmoil out there... and once the Japanese start following methinks the carry-trades may cop a lot more of a flogging... (add to that the china banks weighing in as well... not to mention the petro-dollars and asian sov funds pumping in big to the Wall St falling stars and therefore not wanting to see their investments sour too much so) ... carry-trades to suffer/$USD to pick up????
Cheers
...........Kauri


----------



## ithatheekret

I've just placed an entry at .8762 , it's got the closest ratio to price curve I can get , not sure on it though , the ratio now stands at .8758 , but it was a quick calc. , had to get the neighbourhoods kids fishing rods kitted up for their day down by the river . 

I've got a gut felling it may be .8764 , but that doesn't included pip commission .


----------



## ithatheekret

Looks like an Ichi cross @ 87.64 .


PS ... shorted the Euro again .


----------



## Kauri

on the move??? coily things everywhere.. 
Cheers
..........Kauri


----------



## Kauri

Kauri said:


> on the move??? coily things everywhere..
> Cheers
> ..........Kauri




a quick little scalp... sose I can duck off to the local off-license and get a bottle of plonk for tonight..
Cheers
..........Kauri


----------



## ithatheekret

The ichi recrossed at .8758 and it did a Cooper Pedy special ...... fell down a hole


----------



## Kauri

ithatheekret said:


> The ichi recrossed at .8758 and it did a Cooper Pedy special ...... fell down a hole




doesn'y make a lot of sense even to manifestly senseless me  :bloated:  but my vindicators say we are in for an up-leg of some sort.. much the same with the audjpy, so have a tight stop on that short... (triple bot on the hourly audjpy too)
Cheers
.........Kauri


----------



## >Apocalypto<

possible short setting up on the aud/usd. 4hour

still watching

also eur/usd showing a possible short set up. (4hour)


----------



## reece55

Trade_It said:


> possible short setting up on the aud/usd. 4hour
> 
> still watching
> 
> also eur/usd showing a possible short set up. (4hour)




I agree TI, definite potential for a short.....

The beauty of technical analysis, because logic would tell you that based on interest rate differentials, the AUD should go up..... But that ain't what the chart indicates...

Cheers


----------



## Kauri

reece55 said:


> I agree TI, definite potential for a short.....
> 
> The beauty of technical analysis, because logic would tell you that based on interest rate differentials, the AUD should go up..... But that ain't what the chart indicates...
> 
> Cheers




word around the traps is that most punters feel that there is only one cut left in our dollar... hence the reluctance to push it hard.. BB's cuts notwithstanding..
Cheers
.........Kauri


----------



## >Apocalypto<

Kauri said:


> word around the traps is that most punters feel that there is only one cut left in our dollar... hence the reluctance to push it hard.. BB's cuts notwithstanding..
> Cheers
> .........Kauri




that seams right to me Kauri,

aud fell off a lot faster then i was thinking it would, short still looks valid but i am waiting for my next candle to come out on 4hour chart. what is interesting euro seeing some buying now.

I am not sold on this rate cut i think its just holding up the enevadable. yeh i am a optimist!


----------



## Kauri

Trade_It said:


> that seams right to me Kauri,
> 
> what is interesting euro seeing some buying now.
> 
> quote]
> 
> rate differential.. repatriation..sov funds...turbulence.. flatulence.. so many words.. so much wine.. so few sentences...
> Cheers
> ...........Kauri


----------



## caribean

Can be very wrong of course, but i'm long since 10 min's ago...


----------



## >Apocalypto<

caribean said:


> Can be very wrong of course, but i'm long since 10 min's ago...




I am short Caribean!

my system gave me a short signal so I have taken it. I may live to regret this but hey u can only follow the rules!

I have a 30 pip stop see how it goes! i shorted usdchf last night, had no idea about the rate cut 1st profit hit at +45 second at +84 was a very nice surprise to wake up to!

I have a bad feeling about this one but i will leave it till stopped.

hope you make some on your long!

update what's happening!

usd making a run, eur/usd falling swissy up. swissy long looks ok aswell


----------



## wavepicker

Trade_It said:


> I am short Caribean!
> 
> my system gave me a short signal so I have taken it. I may live to regret this but hey u can only follow the rules!
> 
> I have a 30 pip stop see how it goes! i shorted usdchf last night, had no idea about the rate cut 1st profit hit at +45 second at +84 was a very nice surprise to wake up to!
> 
> I have a bad feeling about this one but i will leave it till stopped.
> 
> hope you make some on your long!
> 
> update what's happening!
> 
> usd making a run, eur/usd falling swissy up. swissy long looks ok aswell





I am short too TI,  Have been bearish AUD for months now!!


----------



## caribean

Sorry Tradeit, i'm the one that's probably wrong here, the trend is still very bearish, i just saw a technical set up and took it, i'll wait till the price action proves me wrong, and if that's the case then good targets will be: 8600 and
8565
cheers


----------



## wavepicker

Re my last post,

refer to the long term chart of the AUDUSD below.  The vertical red lines are increments of a key long term cycle.(19yr Metonic cycle)

The last time this cycle topped was in early 1989. This is denoted by the red number 1(occuring on the red line at that time). This cycle was due again 3 months ago and occured bang on the mark. These time points usually come within 5 bars.

Some weeks ago posted a chart long term chart of the SP500 which also showed that a big fall as due. The challenge however was timing the fall as 90% of the price movement seems to happen in the last 10% of the cycle!!

Cheers


----------



## caribean

I'm still not sure, though i had +30 points, stop to BE, and we'll see...
i've got this crazy idea of 8885..


----------



## caribean

Trend line in the way, exited +42 points will re-enter at a better price level


----------



## >Apocalypto<

caribean said:


> Sorry Tradeit, i'm the one that's probably wrong here, the trend is still very bearish, i just saw a technical set up and took it, i'll wait till the price action proves me wrong, and if that's the case then good targets will be: 8600 and
> 8565
> cheers




i was chased out of there in a real hurry! 

well done Caribean! hope you're enjoying your pips!


----------



## caribean

Thank you Tradeit, sometimes they do work out
Will be waiting to see what happens by about 19:20, it should come down a bit...
it's between two TL's


----------



## >Apocalypto<

wavepicker said:


> I am short too TI,  Have been bearish AUD for months now!!




WP are u still holding?

that was one hell of a chase out! I am watch eur/usd now for a confirm long entry


----------



## caribean

Well you would call that a bearish signal, wouldn't you?
(If the hourly candle stays like that)
IF it does, then i'm looking at 8630, 8600,8565, short targets...


----------



## >Apocalypto<

caribean said:


> Well you would call that a bearish signal, wouldn't you?
> (If the hourly candle stays like that)
> IF it does, then i'm looking at 8630, 8600,8565, short targets...




short again,

aud and eur /usd us futures and London shares looking weak. looking for some follow though.

holding out on these strong statement being said right now. hope u got out with some Caribean.


----------



## caribean

I did not re-enter long, did not like what i saw...not entering short yet either, not untill this hourly candle is complete...
EUR, 14561 is a very nice fib convergence point, wait and see how the current hourly candle completes on that support...


----------



## >Apocalypto<

caribean said:


> I did not re-enter long, did not like what i saw...not entering short yet either, not untill this hourly candle is complete...




wise move.

looks weak on aud but it's fighting hard


----------



## caribean

FDAX is dropping, YM is dropping, that supports the currency shorts


----------



## caribean

Got time for posting tonight, not trading the FDAX allows for that, i'll wait for things to settle down a bit on that front, before i trade it again...
Do you trade any index futures, Trade it?


----------



## caribean

Not decidedly bearish from what i see....taking time off to watch the tennis...


----------



## >Apocalypto<

caribean said:


> Got time for posting tonight, not trading the FDAX allows for that, i'll wait for things to settle down a bit on that front, before i trade it again...
> Do you trade any index futures, Trade it?




no not at the moment Caribean. have only traded the MM equivalents.

I am being a little to aggressive tonight IMO, I think I also need to take 5 and hit the tenis. I am coming off 4 good wins in a row. a little over confident and bulletproof feeling coming in i think. DANGER SIGNS!

HMMMMMM

stopped on both trades serves me right. just gave back 1/3 of my last 4 wins tonight. time for a break.

hope u catch some pips Caribean. wild one on the aud tonight.


----------



## caribean

8885 still my intermediate target, but, maybe not this week...


----------



## Stormin_Norman

the last 12 hours or so of trading this week saw the AUD/USD come off its strong upward trend. week ending profit taking/position closing? 

there is talk of a .5% rise in interest by the RBA and a 2nd drop in interest rates in the USA. i think if this talk persists the dollar will test .9000.


----------



## tayser

mmm, A/J would get a whole lot juicier if that RBA situation were to eventuate (who's got the balls for it? )


----------



## Kauri

60 min chart... I know which way I am looking come Monday...   
Cheers
.........Kauri


----------



## Stormin_Norman

Kauri said:


> 60 min chart... I know which way I am looking come Monday...
> Cheers
> .........Kauri




it definitely looks that way from your chart. the commodity prices came off in late trade too, which took the dollar off its upward trend.

i dont know which way im going on monday morning; but im looking for strengthening during the week.


----------



## ithatheekret

The Ichi Tenk just crossed from underneath @ 88106 , above cloud .


----------



## Kauri

I'm worried if skip keeps bashing his head on the ceiling he's going to get weak at the knees and fold..  :bonk:  
Cheers
............Kauri


----------



## ithatheekret

I worry after I've bought or sold 

Lined up on the Tenk cross waiting patiently done S.O.P. so far .8808/07/06 sees me in .......... has dipped but just not enough yet . ( - ) that far off and I'm not budging to chase , if it fails after , it fails and stops will cut it off at the pass .

Besides I move too much tonight I'll end up getting to know the carpet better .....


----------



## ithatheekret

Getting game , just bought Eurogal ..........

I own some Skippy too now not all though orders through , shall heed the sober advice and keep stop tight .


----------



## ithatheekret

Went to buy Skip again , still had euro box up , whoops .........

Oh well , got Skip too .

Just have to duck out and pray ..............


----------



## ithatheekret

Just gave away $118 , need green can now ! 


Sobering , but revenge is sweet . Dumped Eurogal for the Roo .


----------



## ithatheekret

Yep set .88238 , this better work .........


----------



## ithatheekret

Want to see if it can have a go at 8850/55 tonight , if it fails ..... if it breaches 


PS... note base metals are weak , can only be yield play in it at present , haven't caught up with POG yet .


----------



## ithatheekret

Nickel , tin , lead and precious are all looking good , copper and zinc off .

Skips in the groove .


----------



## ithatheekret

She's getting near the boundary , don't choke Skip ffs.


----------



## ithatheekret

C'mon Skip 88478 (---) so close to a pile of stop orders .


----------



## ithatheekret

Bingo


----------



## ithatheekret

Let's see ET match that hey Kauri ?


----------



## Stormin_Norman

Kauri said:


> 60 min chart... I know which way I am looking come Monday...
> Cheers
> .........Kauri




hope you didn't go that way!

i profited to the tune of $1800 yesterday/overnight after buying below .8000

from $1k to $5k in just over a week so far. surely beginner's luck? or maybe i did pay enough attention during my 7 years studying economics to make good guesses


----------



## Kauri

Stormin_Norman said:


> hope you didn't go that way!
> 
> i profited to the tune of $1800 yesterday/overnight after buying below *.8000*
> 
> *from $1k to $5k in just over a week so far*. surely beginner's luck? or maybe i did pay enough attention during my 7 years studying economics to make good guesses




Have a look at the chart again... both vindicators at lows and rolling UP.. E/W labelled a W2 low... which direction was I looking??? Did I take a trade??/.. well as I didn't post here in real time I could claim anything but as I was having trouble all day with my platform and half the night with my charting programme I missed nearly the whole days trading..  

I wouldn't have minded getting set at below .8000 in the last week.. ah well you win some and  lose some.. 
Good trading
................Kauri


----------



## Stormin_Norman

after a USD strengthening while bush talked; i sold at 8800 have re-bought at 8860.


----------



## ithatheekret

I had a set 8860+65 limit , but my excuse for this run is I went to town and tightened my stop , limit was set . Haven't even managed the energy to open the account up . Stocks are okay , so it's a good day . Brain function will have to come later , the motors flooded .


----------



## Stormin_Norman

ithatheekret said:


> I had a set 8860+65 limit , but my excuse for this run is I went to town and tightened my stop , limit was set . Haven't even managed the energy to open the account up . Stocks are okay , so it's a good day . Brain function will have to come later , the motors flooded .




i hope the dollar breaks 9000 . there has been some strong selling at that point.


----------



## ithatheekret

So do I Norm .

all the 8's up


----------



## ithatheekret

Stormin_Norman said:


> hope you didn't go that way!
> 
> i profited to the tune of $1800 yesterday/overnight after buying below .8000
> 
> from $1k to $5k in just over a week so far. surely beginner's luck? or maybe i did pay enough attention during my 7 years studying economics to make good guesses





Hey Norm is that a typo ?
The last time I studied economics , I had no facial hair and swung a banner at everything .

But unless you haven't made a typo cobber , yesterday Skippy struggled to get near .87 mate . , unless you have a time capsule you must have bought in August / Sept. 2007 .


----------



## >Apocalypto<

ithatheekret said:


> Hey Norm is that a typo ?
> The last time I studied economics , I had no facial hair and swung a banner at everything .
> 
> But unless you haven't made a typo cobber , yesterday Skippy struggled to get near .87 mate . , unless you have a time capsule you must have bought in August / Sept. 2007 .




Maybe he's a very fast runner! or can control gravity like super man!


----------



## ithatheekret

I've grabbed half a bag full from 8848 to 8860 on the run and just prior on the dip , fingers crossed it wants to take off its looked very restrained today .

Sorry that was 8838 8848 I bought twice .


----------



## ithatheekret

Like that one TI , I did , pretty green rocket .


----------



## ithatheekret

I managed 88944 and 43 out , totally missed the reverse start , walked out ,

only one thing to try now , repetition .


----------



## Stormin_Norman

ithatheekret said:


> Hey Norm is that a typo ?
> 
> But unless you haven't made a typo cobber , yesterday Skippy struggled to get near .87 mate . , unless you have a time capsule you must have bought in August / Sept. 2007 .




oops. add another 8 in there 8800. if u know anyone selling at .8000, let me know


----------



## ithatheekret

No worries cobber after a few green cans or a bottle of red , the buttons go blurry for me and I fat finger .

Ichi Tenk just crossed underneath Kinju @88868 moving through cloud now , need 88914 to get above cloud , waiting for a little retracement .


----------



## ithatheekret

oops out of cloud now 88926


----------



## ithatheekret

last peak drop was a beauty on the 1 min .

PS ... anyone else run down the platform after it ?


----------



## Stormin_Norman

ithatheekret said:


> last peak drop was a beauty on the 1 min .
> 
> PS ... anyone else run down the platform after it ?




i only trade in the direction i believe make sense to the fundamentals. so while i sold at 8896, and thought it would come off, i dont chase the market against the direction i believe its taking.


----------



## ithatheekret

I follow the herd and the money Norm , I just don't run off the cliff it all possible , accidentally tripped one off once though .


----------



## Kauri

ithatheekret said:


> I follow the herd and the money Norm , I just don't run off the cliff it all possible , accidentally tripped one off once though .




  I'm constantly at the cliff, feet always dangling over the eedge.. if you see the herd approaching let me Know.. pleese..  

My count has a possible W5 minor inc flat playing... but it may be close to the cliff edge... the butterflies flitting around the drop are interesting
Cheers
.........Kauri


----------



## ithatheekret

Well you beat me Norm I only managed 8889's my sells never registered until 8885/4s I was hitting 8887  , but that's what I got . thought it topped out at 8894's .


rev 8876's as last candle set in the jello . not much to go on in the Ichi yet except next cross from underneath , rsi almost neutral by me .

I do remember last main peak 88895 was defended .


PS... just got 889 even , might hold the one left and tighten up , i'll know in 2 secs.


----------



## ithatheekret

Where are those budgies ?


----------



## Stormin_Norman

ithatheekret said:


> I follow the herd and the money Norm , I just don't run off the cliff it all possible.




exactly.


----------



## Stormin_Norman

ithatheekret said:


> thought it topped out at 8894's .




i went and looked at the trades. it was a 8892. i must have been looking at the buy price at the time.


----------



## Kauri

Stormin_Norman said:


> i went and looked at the trades. it was a 8892. i must have been looking at the buy price at the time.




in shorts again... for better or worse..
Cheers
..........Kauri


----------



## Stormin_Norman

i went long at 8870. what fundamentals do you think will force the AUD down against the USD? do u expect risk aversion to strike?


----------



## Kauri

Stormin_Norman said:


> i went long at 8870. what fundamentals do you think will force the AUD down against the USD? do u expect risk aversion to strike?




Credit aircraft orders account for a lot for the 5.2% jump in headline durable goods but the ex-trans increase of 2.6% was far ahead of expectations. Punters will poo-poo it as a volatile series but there are too many little rippers for Uncle Ben to feel comfortable about aggressively easing Wednesday. Expect Fed funds futures and Treasury prices to take a smack on the data. Maybe...I thunk... but as a non-economist I am possibly way off the mark??? ... and the early response seems to back that up... off the mark that is..  All the set-ups came together, so I am still comfortable with my position and reasoning... at the moment.. why did you go long.. fundementally-economically??? (and I envy your ability to pick what is, for now, the bottom.  
Cheers
.........Kauri


----------



## Stormin_Norman

Kauri said:


> Credit aircraft orders account for a lot for the 5.2% jump in headline durable goods but the ex-trans increase of 2.6% was far ahead of expectations. Punters will poo-poo it as a volatile series but there are too many little rippers for Uncle Ben to feel comfortable about aggressively easing Wednesday.




they are volatile and only a leading indicator, not a fundamental dataset. like u said, isolated industry activities can have a significant effect on the figures.

i bought after the announcement of these figures and the breif reaction to them (AUD/USD falling) knowing it was pretty much useless information in the current situation.

to me the above expectation result this month only set up the index for really terrible data next month. if orders are up, and the economy is down - stocks will increase, reducing durable good demand in the future. increasing stocks is not the same as increasing 'proper' investment (which is good). stocks building is a sign of future demand problems in an economy.



Kauri said:


> Expect Fed funds futures and Treasury prices to take a smack on the data. Maybe...I thunk... but as a non-economist I am possibly way off the mark??? ... and the early response seems to back that up... off the mark that is..
> 
> All the set-ups came together, so I am still comfortable with my position and reasoning... at the moment.. why did you go long.. fundementally-economically??? (and I envy your ability to pick what is, for now, the bottom.




i went long after the data announcement on business investment, as i believed the figures were as much increased stock as increased capital goods.

the australian economy is much more broadly asian based (especially china + india) rather then directed towards the USA which it was moreso in the past. therefore i see our current economy as much stronger due to demand for our dirt from china.

soft commodities are strengthening and gold is rising. australian exports.

our companies have long term contracts for minerals with china, who are growing at 12%.

on top of that we have the very high chance of an interest rate rise next week, and a fed cut in america this week.

we have strong demand for our exports, and infrastructure investment plans by our government to help increase them.

the USA government has dumped the idea of investment in favour of consumption for the last 5+ years. while the dollar held up against massive budget deficits thanks to the willingness of overseas finance; current deficits will be harder to finance, and may well just result in more inflation in the USA.

inflation will lead to further weakening of the USD, as it loses it value more quickly then other trading partners thanks to inflation. 

inflation differential will soon replace interest rate differential as the major factor in influencing exchange rates. there may still be short term appreciations after an interest rate rise, but the inflation it is fighting will erode the currency much more then the short term boost.

asset market inflation is hidden inflation. its about to make itself known in the physical market.

australia can battle the inflation genie (through a rate rise) the USA economy is stuck in 1973. low growth, high inflation and ineffective economic policy because of it.

to get out of recession the USD must depreciate to reduce american imports and increase their exports. this will also help reduce inflation via international competitiveness.

our time may come, as a primary input supplier to china, when their export demand reduces because of current events. however most of our mineral contracts are long term and there is a lot of domestic slack in demand china could pick up for its products to reduce any effects of a reduced export demand.

am i making sense, or just rambling incomprehensible jargon?


----------



## Stormin_Norman

oh and i forgot. the defense selling of the AUD; but it keeps bouncing back. look at the shape of the candles near the top of the resistance range. theyre bearish shaped candles, but moving positively. which means to me, there is constant downward pressure from sellers, but increasing demand from buyers matching that.

eventually the sellers will stop. i hope i wake up above 8900 tomorrow morning.


----------



## Kauri

Stormin_Norman said:


> they are volatile and only a leading indicator, not a fundamental dataset. like u said, isolated industry activities can have a significant effect on the figures.
> 
> *i bought after the announcement of these figures and the breif reaction to them (AUD/USD falling)* knowing it was pretty much useless information in the current situation.
> 
> to me the above expectation result this month only set up the index for really terrible data next month. if orders are up, and the economy is down - stocks will increase, reducing durable good demand in the future. increasing stocks is not the same as increasing 'proper' investment (which is good). stocks building is a sign of future demand problems in an economy.
> 
> 
> 
> i went long after the data announcement on business investment, as i believed the figures were as much increased stock as increased capital goods.
> 
> the australian economy is much more broadly asian based (especially china + india) rather then directed towards the USA which it was moreso in the past. therefore i see our current economy as much stronger due to demand for our dirt from china.
> 
> soft commodities are strengthening and gold is rising. australian exports.
> 
> our companies have long term contracts for minerals with china, who are growing at 12%.
> 
> on top of that we have the very high chance of an interest rate rise next week, and a fed cut in america this week.
> 
> we have strong demand for our exports, and infrastructure investment plans by our government to help increase them.
> 
> the USA government has dumped the idea of investment in favour of consumption for the last 5+ years. while the dollar held up against massive budget deficits thanks to the willingness of overseas finance; current deficits will be harder to finance, and may well just result in more inflation in the USA.
> 
> inflation will lead to further weakening of the USD, as it loses it value more quickly then other trading partners thanks to inflation.
> 
> inflation differential will soon replace interest rate differential as the major factor in influencing exchange rates. there may still be short term appreciations after an interest rate rise, but the inflation it is fighting will erode the currency much more then the short term boost.
> 
> asset market inflation is hidden inflation. its about to make itself known in the physical market.
> 
> australia can battle the inflation genie (through a rate rise) the USA economy is stuck in 1973. low growth, high inflation and ineffective economic policy because of it.
> 
> to get out of recession the USD must depreciate to reduce american imports and increase their exports. this will also help reduce inflation via international competitiveness.
> 
> our time may come, as a primary input supplier to china, when their export demand reduces because of current events. however most of our mineral contracts are long term and there is a lot of domestic slack in demand china could pick up for its products to reduce any effects of a reduced export demand.
> 
> am i making sense, or just rambling incomprehensible jargon?




The value of orders placed for relatively long lasting goods. Durable Goods are expected to last more than three years. Such products often require large investments and usually reflect optimism on the part of the buyer that their expenditure will be worthwhile.

Because orders for goods have large sway over the actual production, this figure serves as an excellent forecast of U.S. output to come. Durable Goods are typically sensitive to economic changes. When consumers become skeptical about economic conditions, sales of durable goods are one of the first to be impacted since consumers can delay purchases of durable items, like cars and televisions, only spending money on necessities in times of economic hardship. Conversely, when consumer confidence is restored, orders for durable goods rebound quickly. The data is highly volatile as well, some volatility is eliminated with the Durable Goods Orders excluding Transportation figure, making it the more closely watched indicator.

The headline figure is expressed as a percentage change from previous months.

*Durable Goods Orders Excluding Transportation*

The Durable Goods Orders figure is also reported excluding transportation expenditures. Orders for items like civilian vehicles or aircrafts are fairly expensive and fluctuate idiosyncratically, distorting the Durable Goods Orders figure. Such goods are excluded to provide a better measure of durable goods orders.

*Do you realise what time the data was released???*

Puzzled
..........Kauri


----------



## Kauri

Some analysts are trying to discount the durable goods number as an aberration as they cling to their view that the Fed will cut 50 bp this week. Clingon...as Kirk said..
 and yes ,I am still short... waiting... the stop line on my charts isn't ever placed where it actually is.. a long story  
Cheers
.......Kauri


----------



## Stormin_Norman

Kauri said:


> *Do you realise what time the data was released???*




nope?? i assume it was during the USD rally at about 12 GMT. i couldnt think of any other reason why the market dropped at this point.

_"Examples of durable goods include cars, appliances, business equipment, electronic equipment, home furnishings and fixtures, houseware and accessories, photographic equipment, recreational goods, sporting goods, toys and games."_

its not only investment goods.


----------



## Stormin_Norman

Kauri said:


> Some analysts are trying to discount the durable goods number as an aberration as they cling to their view that the Fed will cut 50 bp this week. Clingon...as Kirk said..




i think a bigger factor is they just cut in an emergency meeting last week.

2 cuts in 2 weeks is silly. it takes 18 months for fiscal policy to have an effect anyway. why not do it all at once.


----------



## Kauri

Stormin_Norman said:


> oh and i forgot. the defense selling of the AUD; but it keeps bouncing back. look at the shape of the candles near the top of the resistance range. theyre bearish shaped candles, but moving positively. which means to me, there is constant downward pressure from sellers, but increasing demand from buyers matching that.
> 
> eventually the sellers will stop. i hope i wake up above 8900 tomorrow morning.




A butterfly at 8900 is fighting hard... I am told..


----------



## Stormin_Norman

Kauri said:


> A butterfly at 8900 is fighting hard... I am told..




what's that mean


----------



## Kauri

Stormin_Norman said:


> what's that mean




the purported large *butterfly option* may have been rubbed out.. but quite a few vanillas are in the firing line at 8900 as well.. apparently..
Cheers
........Kauri


----------



## Stormin_Norman

Kauri said:


> the purported large *butterfly option* may have been rubbed out.. but quite a few vanillas are in the firing line at 8900 as well.. apparently..
> \




the dollar's been smacking against the 8900 door for about 8 hours. itll open eventually.


----------



## Kauri

a few stops lurking under 8860... if she can make it there.. the market is now caught long on the failed attempts to force AUD above 0.8900 today.. so far anyways...   
Cheers
........Kauri


----------



## Kauri

this one's as busy as a one armed paper-hanger... time for a nanny nap whilst she decides what to do...
Cheers
............Kauri


----------



## Stormin_Norman

still exactly the same picture it was 8 hours ago!

which way will the break occur?? the 64 thousand dollar question!


----------



## >Apocalypto<

Stormin_Norman said:


> still exactly the same picture it was 8 hours ago!
> 
> which way will the break occur?? the 64 thousand dollar question!




time will tell, be patient my dear!


----------



## ithatheekret

I went long 747 749 752 , still don't believe it's on all legs ,  bought only cos' thought t'was short squeeze .............

current 88808 /10 spinner comin up ? watching for a hammer on 1 min .

then would need to push through 88820 ............


hmmm thinking good luck if it does might just hold a few seconds more .


----------



## ithatheekret

too late the brawls started .


----------



## ithatheekret

have limit buy sets last @ 88742 ( ----------- ) pip and a bit away by the looks .

1.3-1.8 away .

probably miss it last in line , of 4 sets ........... pip spread $#&*^!


----------



## ithatheekret

so much for that idea have 4 pozzies now 1 more will fill the box , do you think they let me get it I'm sure that candle just went through 8872 .

gauging the rollover will have to wait .

an option would be a good idea now hey Kauri , I'm still numb from last night .

I'm still trying to calculate the swing on the rate cut in the futures , might need a hair of the dog ...........

25/50/25/50/75/25 .......... ah I give up , someone ring Ben .


----------



## Kauri

ithatheekret said:


> I'm still trying to calculate the swing on the rate cut in the futures , might need a hair of the dog ...........
> 
> 25/50/25/50/75/25 .......... ah I give up , someone ring Ben .




Uncle Ben reckons he's waiting for the punters to make up their minds about how much they want... 0-25-50-75.. says he's not a plurry mindreader, although ( thanks to a tip from an acolyte), he's working on it and should have it mastered in around 7 years..
Cheers
..........Kauri


----------



## ithatheekret

Onya mate .

Are you still short ?


----------



## ithatheekret

Have to dry keyboard off now 

Bit slow today , self inflicted , *acolyte / 7years*

cracked me up


----------



## Kauri

ithatheekret said:


> Onya mate .
> 
> Are you still short ?




 short... (it seemed like a good idea at the time..   )
Cheers
..........Kauri


----------



## ithatheekret

Well it was , in fact there's good schwing , limited pips , but little but often , if motor function allows you on the day . 

I could work out the short play averaging from the last noted low on the 24 Jan @8690 , the best I can get it down to is 8865/60 ish , but remember I'm numb today . Now the breach below would see 8820's or even the 8815/10 , I think it might stall around just under my boxed poz. I have 8775-8810 option to hedge , if that stuffs up it means we would be revisiting Jans low .

Does that make sense ? syntax isn't quite upto it yet ............


----------



## ithatheekret

It's 8865/68area ish

start of the stall area i mentioned , eyes on it ......


----------



## Stormin_Norman

i hit my stoploss @ a $140 loss.

ill be back on the upside.


----------



## ithatheekret

Hi Norman , I've created a hedged position , which I hope will eventually see a win , win , . To this for starters the actual position is in a loss , AUD$490+change , but the options are in profit . 88619 has been touch another shot is unofficially double bot , it hits again after that , well no such thing as triple bottoms in my book .

I'm making better money from whomever sold me the options ...........


----------



## Kauri

closed out 1/2 of short posie, leaving rest running data risk-free..   vinocators suggest a bottom of sorts soon.. maybe.. will await the jockeying pre-data and see which side to take once they settle at the first turn.. I thunk.. 
Cheers
..........Kauri


----------



## ithatheekret

are you going off retracements of the 905's or 902's ?


----------



## Kauri

ithatheekret said:


> are you going off retracements of the 905's or 902's ?





don't confuse me..   
Cheers
........Kauri


----------



## ithatheekret

sorry mate 

I just closed a win win , have 1 incy wincy long left , but is in the green lots .

Have to get hangover more often , ps thanks for data mate worked a breeze .

Implieds are all over the place ?


Cheers 

Mark


No it's gone .


----------



## ithatheekret

Didn't sell enough puts , well  I did , but should have been gamer .

I get somewhere between an implied range of 8812-8796 .

I think Skips gonna do a tennis ball down the stairs job , until it hits a wall .

Remember them Kauri ?


----------



## Kauri

ithatheekret said:


> Didn't sell enough puts , well I did , but should have been gamer .
> 
> I get somewhere between an implied range of 8812-8796 .
> 
> I think Skips gonna do a tennis ball down the stairs job , until it hits a wall .
> 
> Remember them Kauri ?




 Been busy prising a couple of treads loose in case skip does try the stairs...    vinocators rolling so I'm waiting to see if it is a rally or correction or confusion...   
Cheers
..........Kauri


----------



## Kauri

Kauri said:


> Been busy prising a couple of treads loose in case skip does try the stairs...  vinocators rolling so I'm waiting to see if it is a rally or correction or confusion...
> Cheers
> ..........Kauri




 Just gotta love thise vinocators..    not only do they often help me onto the right side of a trade, they help get me out of a turning one..  
Cheers
..........Kauri


----------



## ithatheekret

Test ...........


----------



## ithatheekret

I just can't get it to convert the MDI files yet , I 'm doing something wrong . because it allowed that test plat up .


----------



## ithatheekret

test2


----------



## Kauri

a bounce... before another stroll down stop loss lane??
Cheers
..........Kauri


----------



## Stormin_Norman

i got the rate jump to 90 this morning. then walked away not to do the dough won.

im surprised how much it fell. what are futures doing? is that's whats dragging down the dollar? if i was a big company id be looking to lock in my future contracts at the current exchange rate, given all the uncertainty at the moment.


----------



## ithatheekret

I was reading a Korman Tam piece today , had to dash off for pool duties .

This was up earlier , but it just about sums up the traders mood at the moment , with much of what's happened already built in so far .

http://www.forexnews.com/na/default.asp?f=N20080130-1900.mgn&id=1


*FOMC Slashes 50-BP *by Korman Tam



The FOMC, as largely expected, cut its benchmark-lending rate by 50-basis points to 3.0%. In the accompanying statement, the Fed reiterated lingering downside risks to growth – acknowledging that "financial markets remain under considerable stress" amid tightening credit conditions. The Fed said that recent data points toward further deterioration in the housing market and softening in labor conditions. However, the Fed highlighted the need to continue monitoring inflation in spite of expectations for it to moderate in the coming quarters. The greenback, initially stronger heading into the announcement, quickly gave back its gains – slipping to 1.9960 against the sterling and near the 1.49-level versus the euro.

On the data front, US reports painted contrasting outlooks for the economy. The January ADP payrolls blew away consensus estimates for a slight increase to 45k from 40k, instead spiking to 130k. Traders quickly rewarded the dollar following the release. Shortly after, markets were treated to a polar opposite reading on the economy, with the advanced Q4 GDP revealing anemic growth of 0.6% compared with a robust 4.9% reading from the previous quarter. The disappointing growth rate for the fourth quarter, which was its lowest since 2002, fuelled speculation that the US economy is heading into a recession – further supporting the case for additional policy easing from the FOMC in the coming months. 

Also worth noting was an announcement from Qatar, which said it was mulling over its currency policy. Qatar’s peg to the dollar has resulted in heavy inflationary pressure given the greenback’s broadbased descent in recent years.


Traders will look ahead to a barrage of economic data from the Eurozone and US in the session ahead. The Eurozone reports consist of Germany’s unemployment rate, retail sales, Eurozone economic sentiment, HICP flash and E-13 unemployment rate. Meanwhile, in the US, the data include personal income, consumption, weekly jobless claims, Q4 ECI and the Chicago PMI.


----------



## ithatheekret

Does that look like a Doji or too much body , my eyes are blurred tonight ?


----------



## Kauri

ithatheekret said:


> Does that look like a Doji or too much body , my eyes are blurred tonight ?




It looks like an unopened can of Pure Blonde to me... but I am biased.. tonight..  :bier:  

Cheering
............Kauri without legs..


----------



## ithatheekret

Should we summise there's a pile of stops just beyond that 0.90 line ?


----------



## Kauri

ithatheekret said:


> Should we summise there's a pile of stops just beyond that 0.90 line ?




The only ones I've heard of are 0.8785 and 0.9075 strikes ..  but 90 is too round a number not to have something parked there??? For some reason they don't like to advertise   
Cheers
.........Kauri


----------



## ithatheekret

Yeah , at least we show everyone what where doing .

FFT .

The Tenk will prob cross from underneath around 88987/88/89 -889890 
I like it  .

PS.. that will make the 2nd attempt to breach 090 today . 1st was a halt at the line , so either DT or go Skip , find out in a sec .


----------



## ithatheekret

that 09002 and 09005 touched 09005 was last barrier , so either a concrete wall there or a youmg pimply guard


----------



## ithatheekret

I just had three 09005 absorbed then it went 09007 , new carrot to aim for now .


----------



## Kauri

just an idle thought... must run.. off to the doctors.. 
Cheers
..........Kauri


----------



## Kauri

what sometimes looks like a flag can become a triangle..
what sometimes looks like a triangle can become a ledge..
what sometimes looks like a ledge can become a pumpkin.. 

Cheers
..........Kauri


----------



## ithatheekret

0.9051 has to passed quicker than the Ghan zipping through W.A. , currently 0.9046 , looks like they hit the handbrake in motion ...........
0.9047 hmmmm , wonder if they've put something in Skips water bucket .

Two at that would be $120 in arrears to hold  , awe okay .........

PS .... watch this fight


----------



## Kauri

ithatheekret said:


> 0.9051 has to passed quicker than the Ghan zipping through W.A. , currently 0.9046 , looks like they hit the handbrake in motion ...........
> 0.9047 hmmmm , wonder if they've put something in Skips water bucket .
> 
> Two at that would be $120 in arrears to hold , awe okay .........
> 
> PS .... watch this fight



someone determined to hold the line at 9050...  mmm.. wait until the big hitters step up to the plate and get a clean swing..   
Cheers
..........Kauri


----------



## ithatheekret

Must be the Kiwis getting back at us for that underarm incident again .
Might have jumped that hurdle too quickly , groiner ............

I am expecting the stop to be attacked . But you've got to give me G for game .


----------



## Kauri

the likely hood that the rates are up 25bps tomorrow, possible positive flow over M+A  (chinalco), halving of foriegn investment tax est. to be worth $1bln/month from July1st, TD-MI inflation guage highest for 20 years, house prices to the upside, AUDJPY lending support from Nikeis good day... and my vinocator saying "all systems are go"... so why not consolidate???   as Pittsburg Phil used to say.."off with his head and on with a pumpkin"... 
Cheers
.........Kauri


----------



## ithatheekret

Pumpkin , yeah throw in some bacon and onion , maybe a spud or two the missus says , soup time . 
Round pegs for square holes . Okay , okay I take back what I said about rogue traders ................. so get it past that 9051 and I'll even pay my tax bill .


----------



## ithatheekret

This is not going to be easy . It's either increments or excrement .


----------



## Kauri

ye olde Heineken Ashey still says up... so far..   
Cheers
..........Kauri


----------



## ithatheekret

Well let's just say I don't have a dunny roll handy , but I'm waiting patently ..... not patiently , for the ASX to close .


----------



## ithatheekret

Wooden swords at 50 paces , that's what you get for a 25bps ..........

get the sea sickness pills out .


----------



## ithatheekret

And it's Joes birthday today so fill up his PM box folks , we couldn't be having so much fun without Joe .


----------



## ithatheekret

Here was the end result , sorry hitting the sell to quick forgot to show the buys . Waiting for dip or flip .


----------



## Kauri

Haven't come across anything but wonder if something is rolling off at 50 at UK1000??
Cheers
..........Kauri


----------



## Kauri

stop at B/E... willsee what the night brings..
Cheers
..........Kauri


----------



## Kauri

With the Dow and SP500 off early, gold playing silly burgers,  the metal complex mixed but not overly impressive, and a couple of other minor things, I have brought my stop up... (also as it must be nanny nap time..  
Cheers
...........Kauri


----------



## Stormin_Norman

where's the heights of the dollar going to stop??


----------



## ithatheekret

Stormin_Norman said:


> where's the heights of the dollar going to stop??





It's lost so much weight it floats now Norm .


----------



## ithatheekret

Crashed last night very early .
This thing called sleep took over , I remember what it is now .


----------



## Stormin_Norman

big day today!


----------



## Kauri

well the olde Heineken Ashey says buy again so I've thrown in a little pyramid here..
Cheers
.........Kauri


----------



## Kauri

now thats timing..not..   
  and just received a PM saying she was going to drop seconds after i added..   
 Cheers
..........Kauri


----------



## ithatheekret

Like your really worried hey mate ...........

It will wobble and push all day until 2.30 scream session , but I don't have a mortgage , might go get one though , seen a few good buys locally .

I'm looking at it just about to come through the Kumo , Tenk crossed from underneath at 9075


----------



## Kauri

ithatheekret said:


> Like your really worried hey mate ...........
> 
> It will wobble and push all day until 2.30 scream session , but I don't have a mortgage , might go get one though , seen a few good buys locally .
> 
> I'm looking at it just about to come through the Kumo , Tenk crossed from underneath at 9075




Yep, the Japanese importer/exporter trade first thing often/sometimes pushes her around counter-trend... I thunk..  unless it is YOU    again.. 
Cheers
...........Kauri


----------



## ithatheekret

I'm buying that dip we spoke about , whoops mean bought , if I didn't go get my coffee I could have had the end of the main dip , we'll just have to wait to see if we can get one again. Be wary of an ASX sell off , it could make Skip run for the bar until closing .............

there's one good thing I heard today ............Hilary is losing her voice .


----------



## Kauri

ithatheekret said:


> I'm buying that dip we spoke about , whoops mean bought , if I didn't go get my coffee I could have had the end of the main dip , we'll just have to wait to see if we can get one again. Be wary of an ASX sell off , it could make Skip run for the bar until closing .............
> 
> there's one good thing I heard today ............*Hilary is losing her voice* .




  It's those premature victory cigars... as Billy advised.. inhale but dont swallow... 
Cheers ....
............Kauri


----------



## ithatheekret

2nd Tenk crossing from un/neath 9077 and jusy above cloud .

Wait for the banks to rise a bit , that should be a good sign , oil up again , the &^%$$^%## things .

Her Maj rising towards my sell limits .


----------



## ithatheekret

Kauri said:


> It's those premature victory cigars... as Billy advised.. inhale but dont swallow...
> Cheers ....
> ............Kauri




Who was the advice to ? ......... Duh of course Monica .


----------



## Kauri

ithatheekret said:


> 2nd Tenk crossing from un/neath 9077 and jusy above cloud .
> 
> Wait for the banks to rise a bit , that should be a good sign , oil up again , the &^%$$^%## things .
> 
> Her Maj rising towards my sell limits .



skippy.... sent a PM...blame the"*talking heads*"...   
Laughing
...........Kauri


----------



## ithatheekret

ASIC up and the Fed Communications Act !

One channel needs to meet the gunners daughter !


----------



## Kauri

ithatheekret said:


> ASIC up and the Fed Communications Act !
> 
> One channel needs to meet the gunners daughter !




Just some battling editor trying to pay off his credit card.... timing is impeccable.. most illiquid time of the day... aahhh such is life...  
Cheers
..........Kauri


----------



## wayneL

Is this thread in code? 

Anyhoooooz, when do get told interest rates are rising?


----------



## ithatheekret

We cut , well I do , it down to quick typing due to trading , it moves so quickly espec. AM , here , Japanese trading always gives it the wobbles pre market and through the market day mate . 

PM me if you can't get the code mate , will be happy to fill you in , just easier , fortunately Kauri remembers my jargon from aways back .

From waht I can see Skip is trying to be pushed early into 9065 retest , end of last biiiig dip this AM . Might get there , but we could also see a higher low for the day above that area .

Your up late Wayne ....tsk tsk tsk , money does that huh


----------



## wayneL

ithatheekret said:


> Your up late Wayne ....tsk tsk tsk , money does that huh



A bad habit from trading the US from Oz I'm afraid.


----------



## Kauri

wayneL said:


> Is this thread in code?
> 
> Anyhoooooz, when do get told interest rates are rising?




  not an Enigma...   sorry bout that..   



> The AUD/USD dipped to 0.9067 after it was "misreported" by one of the newswires that the RBA left rates unchanged, but quickly recovered to 0.9080 when the mistake was realized.




Aus Retail Sales at 00:30 GMT that will be followed by the RBA announcement at 03:30 GMT
cheers
...........Kauri


----------



## ithatheekret

9050 res now support ? 

possible higher low .


----------



## Kauri

December Retail Sales Rose 0.5% (Plus 0.6% Med)
Building Approvals Minus 16% (Minus 4% Median)


----------



## Stormin_Norman

Kauri said:


> December Retail Sales Rose 0.5% (Plus 0.6% Med)
> Building Approvals Minus 16% (Minus 4% Median)




bad figures. certainly lowers the future expectations of interest rate rises dramatically.

i think after this rate rise, a weakening of the AUD will occur, unless commodity prices go well and prop it up.


----------



## ithatheekret

I told ya I'd hit it mate , this better play out very busy on Her Maj. trying to set a box up .


----------



## Kauri

Stormin_Norman said:


> bad figures. certainly lowers the future expectations of interest rate rises dramatically.
> 
> i think after this rate rise, a weakening of the AUD will occur, unless commodity prices go well and prop it up.




retail sales much as expected... housing..depends how you look at it, and it is not usually a big market mover... time to reload..  
Despite the slump in December, building approvals still rose 1.1% over the quarter compared to the previous quarter, and managed a 2.0% gain over the year as a whole, the first rise in four years and the largest in five. While much of the drop was due to a reversal of multi-unit dwellings (they rose 30.6% in November but slid back 25.9% in December), private-sector house approvals tumbled by a surprisingly large 11.6%, their biggest fall in seven years to their lowest level since April 2001. The construction sector remains weak but with supply running well behind demand, and rents surging, the medium-term outlook remains solid and the falls in December are likely to be gradually reversed in coming months.
Cheers
........Kauri


----------



## Stormin_Norman

you make good points.

i guess it will depend on how things calm down after the recent spook in world markets.

it will be interesting to read the RBA's statement that accompanies their rate decision.


----------



## ithatheekret

I think the 25 was written in aways back , this is yeild and the supposed carry trade demise , like a chance to make money will ever stop it .
As I said before , I'm on the Japanese housewives side , you go girls , I'm still typing them in


----------



## Kauri

ithatheekret said:


> I think the 25 was written in aways back , this is yeild and the supposed carry trade demise , like a chance to make money will ever stop it .
> As I said before , I'm on the Japanese housewives side , you go girls , I'm still typing them in




 I'm with you Maj san... just not in such a big way.. the vinocators are getting ready to roll   ... Japanese housewives.   now there is a story there but not here methinks.. 
Cheers
.........Kauri


----------



## ithatheekret

It will dip but look for sponges


----------



## ithatheekret

Her Maj . looks like she wants to go for a flight through a cloud for a bit of fun.

Could be some schwing .bftt


----------



## Kauri

ithatheekret said:


> It will dip but look for sponges




Sponges I am OK with... just don't tell me I need Kleenex!!   
Cheers
..........Kauri


----------



## ithatheekret

my limits exits were taken out in a blink @ 9080 

back in for schwing , they haven't even got to the mic yet .

I wonder which bank just had to settle ............


----------



## Kauri

ithatheekret said:


> my limits exits were taken out in a blink @ 9080
> 
> back in for schwing , they haven't even got to the mic yet .
> 
> I wonder which bank just had to settle ............





I was taken out for worse than B/E...  .. reset just above the lows though..   ..as the only thing I can see that isn't really hawkerish is that  he said that global growth was likely to fall below trend, which is subtley changed to his opinion in London in mid January when he said that global growth would return to trend from above trend in previous years.
Cheers
..........Kauri


----------



## ithatheekret

Well we're number two and the Kiwis are one up on us , except it's a rate :


----------



## ithatheekret

I don't know what made me do it , must of been that gold suicide plunge , but I bought Skip again , just exited some smaller ones , but it looks protected and that p'd me off .


----------



## Kauri

this Heineken Ashey thingamibob I am playing around with gave a signal to get long a littles whiles back.. am still getting to the bottom of it.. running on my backup comp.. if nought else it has convinced me I am NOT colourblind after all..   
  5Min chart
Cheers
..........Kauri

PS.
    Your Maj... will send you the thing via email later when all goes quiet and you might like to look at it on a comp in the backroom when the markets are quiet.. (between 0600 and 0605..)


----------



## ithatheekret

I think Maj is having mood swing , or that was a big brickwall it just hit 1.9702

hhhhh.... opptions


----------



## ithatheekret

tested support . getting interesting again .

ready for the brawls


----------



## Kauri

Posted earlier chart in the gold thread..     long hot humid night...
Cheers
..........Kauri


----------



## Kauri

and not worrying about a typical W3 it seems..
Cheers
.......Kauri


----------



## Kauri

a perfect storm could form where China"s efforts to slow their booming economy start to bite while US and EZ growth slows significantly. This would push commodity prices lower and negatively impact the Australian economy around the time recent rate hikes and fiscal tightening takes hold.
    if global growth concerns continue to intensify, currencies with central banks that promote growth will be rewarded and yield advantage will take a back seat. I thunk...

  PS is anyone else having trouble with the speed of ASF today???.. since around midnight I have had a lot of trouble loading pages etc?? would post this in a new thread but whenever I try it times out
Cheers
..........Kauri


----------



## Stormin_Norman

fundamentally we were just at our strongest point i think (in relative economy terms). 

the USA in recession was quickly priced into the AUD/USD. now that it has been priced in, the belief that the USA might have been spared a larger recession because of timely government and fed intervention has seen the USD get stronger on all its crossrates.

with the world slowdown likely to effect china on a lag, and therefore our economy on an even further lag - many believe our economic slow down will now more closely mirror china's then the USA's. and with predictions of a chinese slow down occuring over the next 18 months, the medium term outlook for the aussie economy follows that of china.

i think as the USA recovers from recession and we teeter on the edge of one because of china the AUD/USD will become bearish this year. i wouldnt be surprised to see it down to 75/77.


----------



## ithatheekret

Kauri said:


> PS is anyone else having trouble with the speed of ASF today???.. since around midnight I have had a lot of trouble loading pages etc?? would post this in a new thread but whenever I try it times out
> Cheers
> ..........Kauri




last night everything ground down to a halt , platforms saying no connection , strong ping but !!!
Must have been every Yank and European selling last night , wore a nasty loss on POG $1880.00 ouch , thankfully I never got to see it , made it back on Cable , but fund managers rushing to find cash certainly upset that apple cart . 

I suppose they think they're cashed up now . My AUD exits were hit , so busy on Her Maj , I never noticed the plunge until you told me , missed a good drop there . North crashed or something , I was there , but it wasn't .


----------



## Kauri

The AUD/USD has held up well this morning despite some steady and at times heavy selling from US model funds. Traders say that local funds and corporates have been absorbing the selling and have been joined in by Asian and Japanese names as well. Traders say that newspaper reports saying that Australian coal and iron ore miners are about to benefit from a massive price increases with China and Japan are helping to encourage some of the local buying. The reports say that the miners are very close to settling on a price that is nearly double the current price. The Australian newspaper says that if the increases are achieved, Australia"s export revenue from coal and iron ore is set to jump from 42 BLN AUD to more than 70 BLN AUD next year.


----------



## Kauri

wonder if the 5th is in... will watch this larger ??_triangle_?? to see whether to cut and ... 
Cheers
...........Kauri


----------



## Kauri

closed out short and taken a little long... looking to go back to around 90?? maybe.. 
Cheers
.........Kauri


----------



## Kauri

Kauri said:


> closed out short and taken a little long... looking to go back to around 90?? maybe..
> Cheers
> .........Kauri




 Taken the long trade off... gone over to the corner and written "*I will follow my rules*" 100 times on the whiteboard!!  :bart:   Forex is hard enough as it is without me impulsively second-guessing my own system..  will look for a possible re-entry on the short side.. if it presents... (lost the spread and a couple of pips on that trade, plus the cost of rejoining to the short side.. a relatively cheep reminder)        
Cheers
..........Kauri


----------



## Kauri

shorts put back on... not so cold now..
Cheers
.........Kauri


----------



## Kauri

Kauri said:


> shorts put back on... not so cold now..
> Cheers
> .........Kauri





Looks like she ran/bulldozed a few stops sub 50..   
Cheers
.........Kauri


----------



## ithatheekret

I'll put my hand up , got tyre tracks all over my stop just tightened it up too and it got crunched . Only thing I saw was the number plate and the muffler .


----------



## Kauri

ithatheekret said:


> I'll put my hand up , got tyre tracks all over my stop just tightened it up too and it got crunched . Only thing I saw was the number plate and the muffler .




 Yep, I was kinda worried... looked like a runaway tractor heading downhill..  :car:   ...  maj is looking good.. apparently pulled up a pip or two shy of a pack of waiting customers..
Cheers
..........Kauri


----------



## ithatheekret

Let's get em all before they do  Eurogal just scared the poop out of me , thank heavens for eject buttons .


----------



## Kauri

ithatheekret said:


> Let's get em all before they do  Eurogal just scared the poop out of me , thank heavens for eject buttons .




A host of factors are cited behind recent chop but the underlying story is one of banking crisis and potential recession*s* (_note plural_)spreading outward from the US.      I'm surprised...  but am a tad wary after last nights almost Dow rout that they will be queing up for a bit of relief over there.. and the swaps may be swayed into going along for the ride??? or not..   
Cheers'
...........Kauri


----------



## ithatheekret

Kauri said:


> A host of factors are cited behind recent chop but the underlying story is one of banking crisis and potential recession*s* (_note plural_)spreading outward from the US.      Cheers'
> ...........Kauri




There's not enough S's on that "R" word , someone was talking about the "D" word with me today , an ancient old chap we adore , his view is not much change from what he can see , except for no strike breakers with clubs .

Did you get to roll on the GBP/JPY ? , boy it was a beauty .

O yasa mia si ( forgive the spelling )


----------



## Kauri

ithatheekret said:


> There's not enough S's on that "R" word , someone was talking about the "D" word with me today , an ancient old chap we adore , his view is not much change from what he can see , except for no strike breakers with clubs .
> 
> Did you get to roll on the GBP/JPY ? , boy it was a beauty .
> 
> O yasa mia si ( forgive the spelling )





I'm only on the Aus pairs currently.. skip/yen... skip/US... and waiting for skip/euro to wake up to itself and start dropping...  
long suspected the US was already in recession, the weak EZ 
data last night might just be the start of a much bigger move where the US dollar appreciates against everything except the Japanese Yen. Should mean the AUD will fall accordingly but it should hold up well against 
the crosses due to its strong fundamentals. EUR/AUD looks a motza for a 
return to its Nov 07 lows... just wish nit would get on wid it

and.... *WestLB Negotiating Additional Risk Protection Of EUR3Bln*

Cheers
........Kauri


----------



## Kauri

looks like the 193.472 SMA is supporting her..   
Cheers
..........Kauri


----------



## Stormin_Norman

what are u on about?? i often have no idea


----------



## ithatheekret

Yeah she's tryin' real hard onya another look out below ..........


----------



## wayneL

Kauri said:


> looks like the 193.472 SMA is supporting her..
> Cheers
> ..........Kauri



Ah! So you're into Cacciatore numbers as well.


----------



## Kauri

wayneL said:


> Ah! So you're into Cacciatore numbers as well.




Ah, at last, someone else who is into cacciatore... tell me, what the plurry kell are you meant to do with them when you catch one??
Cheers....
Gordon Brown

PS...
         A 0.9000 option strike rolls off at today"s 10am Eastern NY cut (15:00GMT).


----------



## Kauri

have built a little pyramid..


----------



## wayneL

Kauri said:


> Ah, at last, someone else who is into cacciatore... tell me, what the plurry kell are you meant to do with them when you catch one??
> Cheers....
> Gordon Brown
> 
> PS...
> A 0.9000 option strike rolls off at today"s 10am Eastern NY cut (15:00GMT).




I don't know, but I have heard that Heineken Ashy goes well with Cacciatore, so long as there is plenty of the Heineken.


----------



## ithatheekret

chi e' cacciatore ? 

pollo non brasato ? eh

o lo ( um ) stargazer  ?

Nordo arrestato , AVA arrestato , tutto sta arrestandosi e sono malata di esso !

.......... e questo e' il senso migliore protestare e nessuno conosce che cosa sto dicendo .


......... e tutta questa gente continua a transmettermi i messaggi per consiglio, io non sono un guru .

Doppia parte inferiore sull'Euro a 1.4606 ?

Se lo continua soltanto sto parlando le lingue straniere .


----------



## Kauri

ithatheekret said:


> chi e' cacciatore ?
> 
> pollo non brasato ? eh
> 
> o lo ( um ) stargazer ?
> 
> Nordo arrestato , AVA arrestato , tutto sta arrestandosi e sono malata di esso !
> 
> .......... e questo e' il senso migliore protestare e nessuno conosce che cosa sto dicendo .
> 
> 
> ......... e tutta questa gente continua a transmettermi i messaggi per consiglio, io non sono un guru .
> 
> Doppia parte inferiore sull'Euro a 1.4606 ?
> 
> Se lo continua soltanto sto parlando le lingue straniere .




na te pahi tau whenua tau pili mai
tau ta tau whenua...


----------



## ithatheekret

soldi rapidi reali ( real quick ) buon roba ( good stuff )


----------



## ithatheekret

I had a couple of crashes on two sites at the same time different CPUs p'd me off . Methinks both are same Co. 

I hope their European clients see that !


----------



## Kauri

and thats me out of skip... will watch for a possible rally before kooking to re-enter the fray...
Cheers
...........Kauri


----------



## ithatheekret

Every big bet it crashes ?


----------



## Kauri

Kauri said:


> and thats me out of skip... will watch for a possible rally before kooking to re-enter the fray...
> Cheers
> ...........Kauri




 and might not be long to wait.. kooks like the US are after a bit of releif after all, and naive Skippy is going along for the fun of it..
Cheers
........Kauri


----------



## BentRod

Getting chopped up left right and centre tonight.

Bloody forex, why the hell did I get started with this:


----------



## ithatheekret

Swing trade is okay , but for every move up I'm seeing a lot of take off , don't know if it's the arbitrage play on equities yet , or whether someones flushed the septic tanks out .............. one thing for sure they are attacking stops tonight . Everything is taking steps and plunges , so my guess is hedge funds are at work tonight , the ones that can still open their doors that is .
I'm waiting for 1.4624 to be tested on the Euro and 0.8964 on Skip . My guess is that it will be either increments or excrement again . If they don't smash through those areas it could be increments . But I'm sure they will try to take out any obstacle ...............
Should know with Skip in a few seconds .

Go the Pies


----------



## ithatheekret

Just heard my favourite voice over .... " Limit order executed " Skips bounced that means .


----------



## Kauri

even though it is raining in Perth I have got shorts on...
Cheers
...........Kauri


----------



## ithatheekret

Ah ......... it was you !  

I sell , you short huh ?  well done , lovely long coat tails on those candles going into the 893's   ,............ 20's bounce ?


----------



## ithatheekret

In the 20's haven't touched it yet ....... honest injun .


----------



## Kauri

ithatheekret said:


> In the 20's haven't touched it yet ....... honest injun .




Cisco shares are down 7% in after-hours trading after their earnings forecast for the next quarter is below analyst"s expectations..  affecting the US futures.. affecting skip???
Cheers
...........Kauri


----------



## Kauri

ithatheekret said:


> Ah ......... it was you !
> 
> I sell , you short huh ?  well done , lovely long coat tails on those candles going into the 893's ,............ 20's bounce ?




I was/am looking for her to go for the handle..   buuuutt...
Cheers
.........Kauri


----------



## ithatheekret

Kauri said:


> Cisco shares are down 7% in after-hours trading after their earnings forecast for the next quarter is below analyst"s expectations..  affecting the US futures.. affecting skip???
> Cheers
> ...........Kauri




Asia shut Tokyo open more like it  they've got all the money . I'd prefer they came here to spend it ..............

Got two wicked candles on the 1 min for WBC today $25 down to $24 and back , rolling back down the hill slowly now . Is $24 a soft spot ?


----------



## Kauri

and closed out... waiting for to see what pops up now..
Cheers
.........Kauri


----------



## Kauri

in again.. feel like a handle me.. 
Cheers
..........Kauri


----------



## ithatheekret

Brawl yeehaaa  now they'll show their colours . I'm not hitting that again I'll take the beer money today , little bits at a time , the sponge team out at 8917's ? Getting velly hinteresting , nearly got some good schwing but you have to pile it on , more dangerous than matches ............


----------



## ithatheekret

You'll like this mate , what can you see ......... I see a weak fight so far steam rollers can flatten tractors .

Little bounces , then out come the footy boots to kick tennis balls down stairs ............. they'll have to make the most of today .


----------



## ithatheekret

That's the third touch at 8908 now .


----------



## Kauri

ithatheekret said:


> You'll like this mate , what can you see ......... I see a weak fight so far steam rollers can flatten tractors .
> 
> Little bounces , then out come the footy boots to kick tennis balls down stairs ............. they'll have to make the most of today .




 apparently there is a little kamikaze bloke on an Iseki trying to corral skip, but if she can jump the Muppet proof fence at 90 she could be away ...

Cheers
.........Kauri


----------



## ithatheekret

That's good to know , but if he stands in front of this movement he's either loaded or crazy ........... take ya pick . The saying more money than sense has fit before . 8904 is the best handbrakey I've seen today , let's hope its a diesel and he's left it in gear .........

PS...  got a read out that says 8882 in the count , might keep plotting this just in case .


----------



## Kauri

internet dropouts for the past hour...     have ended up losing a tad on the last trade when it had been in profit but no chart and therefore no exit signal..  
 minor 4 on the way??
   ah well... onwards and upwards..
Cheers
...........Kauri

PS 3rd attempt at posting.. plurry dropouts


----------



## Kauri

short again... looking for a 5th.. and trying to avoid the man on the Iseki...  
Cheers
...........Kauri


----------



## Kauri

and it looks like someone is determined to keep her above 30...  
Cheers
..........Kauri


----------



## ithatheekret

Kauri said:


> internet dropouts for the past hour...     have ended up losing a tad on the last trade when it had been in profit but no chart and therefore no exit signal..
> minor 4 on the way??
> ah well... onwards and upwards..
> Cheers
> ...........Kauri
> 
> PS 3rd attempt at posting.. plurry dropouts




Same here ,this Telstra wireless system is halfway between stuffed and stupid, I could get faster speeds with a pidgeon and better reliability from one too . Technicals huh , for the chit they dribble I'd put up with , well let's just say pidgeon poo at least has a use .

I won't mention half the day sitting in a vets surgery in the city , so ropeable they could lock me up ........ absolutely livid .

The good news is that one of my main providers ( CFD) realised a glitch and has refunded me some money to the account , I didn't have to ask for it either . Better put them on the Chrissie card list .

I did managed something today and I wasn't even at the controls pulled off 40pips on Skip , did something stupid though , left home without setting a stop or a trailer ........ oops , set the limit which by the blessed grace completed .

I was thinking about it all the way home , cursing myself , could only think about an injured dog all day , completely lost the plot .

It's a very good example of what not to do though . 

If distracted don't touch !


----------



## ithatheekret

Just noted we're back at the starters line , hey hey hey , OMG groundhog day.


----------



## Kauri

ithatheekret said:


> Just noted we're back at the starters line , hey hey hey , OMG groundhog day.




 Hey I hope chitz alot is OK.. give him a hug.. and kiss.. from me..   
 Telstra tell me that as today was the first rain in Perth for 50 days odd it has caused problems with phones/internet.. lawd help us come winter. 

 apparently a few of our neighbours CBs are parked just above the 89.. if we can roll through there are a few stops lurking just below... I thunk..
 Cheers
...........Kauri


----------



## ithatheekret

Could be very right mate . still have an 8882 count in the numbers , but that area if achieved would mean the last support area would come into play too .

That was around 884's down to 3's if I remember rightly ( fundies )

Got to breach the 89 wall first . Whoops speaking of which .........


----------



## ithatheekret

Kauri said:


> Hey I hope chitz alot is OK.. give him a hug.. and kiss.. from me..
> Telstra tell me that as today was the first rain in Perth for 50 days odd it has caused problems with phones/internet.. lawd help us come winter.
> 
> apparently a few of our neighbours CBs are parked just above the 89.. if we can roll through there are a few stops lurking just below... I thunk..
> Cheers
> ...........Kauri




I hope he is too , strange the cats are steering clear of me tonight , they must sense it huh .

Our poor neighbours will have to loosen that leash I think , but they've had all day to get set .


----------



## Kauri

thats me out for the times being... will see if she regroups for another crack...
Cheers
...........Kauri


----------



## Stormin_Norman

yeah. ill ban myself for a while now too, so not to undo my good work today.

btw, sorry for the silly question: but what is that candle like subgraph you are using?


----------



## Kauri

took another bite... stops under here are velly crose..
Cheers
........Kauri


----------



## ithatheekret

Strewth it made it , yikes .........if the next Tenk cross happens in the middle of Hong Kong harbour or on the edge of the cloud , this could get interesting .
Can't put the chart up yet , waiting for other unit to complete a task .


----------



## Kauri

ithatheekret said:


> Strewth it made it , yikes .........if the next Tenk cross happens in the middle of Hong Kong harbour or on the edge of the cloud , this could get interesting .
> Can't put the chart up yet , waiting for other unit to complete a task .



 under nand out... has met the 38% ret, and as unlikely as it may seem, may kook for a WB now...or not..... long bow I know but I'm on strong bow.. 
Cheers
...........Kauri


----------



## ithatheekret

I was just doing some math , the retracement to 8904 was just under 25% , well 24 +++ %

Does anyone have the USD index read out handy ?


----------



## ithatheekret

Looks ominous to me ......... gotta get back into 89 for a retest , just to convince us it's seriass


----------



## Kauri

ithatheekret said:


> Looks ominous to me ......... gotta get back into 89 for a retest , just to convince us it's seriass




I'm getting some faint and early warnings... may just be taking a breather though... like me at the moment..  :cup:


----------



## Kauri

Kauri said:


> I'm getting some faint and early warnings... may just be taking a breather though... like me at the moment.. :cup:




in fact...     might be a quick one though


----------



## Kauri

Kauri said:


> in fact...  might be a quick one though




8950's would be a good place to start... bit of diversion to play out as well maybe??
Cheers
.........Kauri


----------



## Kauri

taken a small clip... will look for poss abc here???
Cheers
...........Kauri


----------



## ithatheekret

I hope there's an E, F and G too , ducked out to get a coffee and all the fun started without me . Going into fog now ........... closing has to be quick here . Waiting for the bounce .


----------



## ithatheekret

There's the vet paid for .


----------



## ithatheekret

there's the bounce .


----------



## Kauri

ithatheekret said:


> there's the bounce .




yep..and sweet it is..   :aliena:


----------



## ithatheekret

Yep , she's off making like Neil Armstrong . 896 is a tough area though , not sure whether to give it a good hit and try for a boundary sure looks like a line in the sand @8954


----------



## ithatheekret

........... too late my trailer just took it out (2 pips) , not resetting yet .

Will wait to see if a spinning top takes their fancy .


----------



## ithatheekret

Out of the Kumo , Tenk ( blueline ) will cross from underneath soon , but there's a good two way fight here .


----------



## Kauri

ithatheekret said:


> Out of the Kumo , Tenk ( blueline ) will cross from underneath soon , but there's a good two way fight here .




I'm getting a signal to buy and another to sell...  so will let it play out some... and nanny says it's time for a nanny nap..  :remybussi


----------



## ithatheekret

Good brawl between high rollers , best let em slog it out , and then pick up the scraps .


----------



## Kauri

Getiing set for a fall... ditto the audjpy???  have gone short both..   
  and now back to bed....  :sleeping:
Cheers
..........Kauri


----------



## Kauri

and in with a pyramiddie...
Cheers
..........Kauri

Rumors are emerging of upward revisions to non-manfacturing ISM ..but are being squashed just as quickly.  caused a spike in the Dow.. allowing another entry in the skip.... Also, US bond yields have hit new highs with the ten-yr bond yields at 3.788%, up from 3.57%


----------



## Kauri

have popped on another pyramiddie... with all stops left wide enough to hopefully keep clear of any US last half hour.."*who us, recession, no way*" rally.
Cheers
..........Kauri


----------



## Kauri

and one more pyramiddie... one for the road...    so long as it is not a copper road..!!
Cheers
..........Kauri


----------



## Kauri

fairly messy coily thing...running out of time as well... but you wouldn't hear me complaining if it comes off..  

Cheers
.........Kauri


----------



## Kauri

that trades closed... average *cost* of 10 pips/contract..    fairly quiet day so far but something else will set up soon.. maybe.. 
Cheers
..........Kauri


----------



## ithatheekret

Don't ya hate liners , nothing worse than having to pay market price


----------



## ithatheekret

Here we go somone swab Skippy come on 8975+ where's the sponge funds ...
a nice screw punt through the uprights would be the go .


----------



## ithatheekret

Skip started to look interesting , waiting for a decent dip before or an active push , slow as today swaps are moving gingerly . Don't know if the herd has given up on the Yen yet , prefer moving with Yen/Dow action . Bit of dejavu for Skip must be a watering hole at 8915 area , but I'd swear its inching a smidgence lower on each tap of the area . Someones wish zone ??? I'd prefer to see that 8985 top rolled over , would probably see a flurry of covering


----------



## ithatheekret

I did this thingly bob . well a 5 bob .


----------



## ithatheekret

About to cross , time for a plot count methinks .


----------



## ithatheekret

Now for first test area .


----------



## ithatheekret

Hola ............


----------



## ithatheekret

Have scalps on my teepee


----------



## ithatheekret

swab please ..........

Japanese bus. dist. closed for holiday . the thinking about it zone


----------



## ithatheekret

couple more scalps , Mon Tues and Wed are bread and butter days .


----------



## ithatheekret

another walk through .


----------



## ithatheekret

Come on Kauri I know I'm not the only one hitting boundaries here , whack up mate . Took another punt , lunch up , nice to see the Tenk cross from underneath and above cloud , could get a slipstream , unless someone chops its tail off ................


----------



## ithatheekret

CAD approaching parity again .


----------



## Kauri

ithatheekret said:


> Come on Kauri I know I'm not the only one hitting boundaries here , whack up mate . Took another punt , lunch up , nice to see the Tenk cross from underneath and above cloud , could get a slipstream , unless someone chops its tail off ................




  am getting ready to pluck a couple of tailfeathers... if it falls a touch more... then reset on a rebound... I thunk..    90 (roughly  )is my bottom limit.. audjpy much the same position... and... xxx
Cheers
.........Kauri


----------



## ithatheekret

Ahso , still on tops and bottoms , dahski . I'm doin the buy the dips thingo 

If little steps prove wrong ............. ah chits happens . Equilibrium looks only partly matched ..... I bought to match kijun line and taking commission into account . 9010 fight will decide


----------



## ithatheekret

I did mate guess where ?


----------



## ithatheekret

I killed three and hit a couple of eights , one set left ...... more step ( 4 price )


----------



## ithatheekret

I'd join you on the A/J mate but struggling to multi task today , must be the water


----------



## ithatheekret

Someones got a hammer , treated it like a nail asking for it .


----------



## ithatheekret

Pushed it through the Kumo for a fight .


----------



## ithatheekret

that's the play so far . Her Maj havin a cuppa I think .


----------



## ithatheekret

I think I've trashed this keyboard ......... c'mon Skip , scalps galore .


----------



## ithatheekret

Long day earned my beer ration .


----------



## ithatheekret

Hola ...........


----------



## ithatheekret

Go for the try now , hope the legs don't give out  very tight stop should see the signs soon 4 price or whatever .


----------



## ithatheekret

Just like the stock market floor today , buy buy buy sell sell sell . Hold on to the dregs and make sure it bounces again . 9046 to beat .


----------



## ithatheekret

The dregs .


----------



## ithatheekret

Good run so far , moved some off , but the target can be seen , yesterdays high to rollover now , NY will be the key or weight . Looking for a nice green hanging man .


----------



## ithatheekret

I nibbled earlier , slow as today , like pulling teeth . Watching Mexican waves is boring , set autopilot and buy ifs stop . ifs is 9041 , ya never know .......

Equities were actually entertaining today .


----------



## ithatheekret

Closed out bar one , actually looking for re-entry .  A 9041 if stop saw the dice rolled so I filled up for Gorundhog day ........... I think that 9080 area is a bloomin sandbar . So I bought the Yen 

Nope bar none .


----------



## ithatheekret

Sandbar , there's a sub out there ..........


----------



## Kauri

Some nasty *rumours* of a bank in the "antipodes". maybe facing up to a writedown...  whatever.. true or not it has moved the skip, and that is all that counts, for mine.... it's tripped the 9020 and sub 90 stops..
Cheers
..........Kauri


----------



## ithatheekret

Yep with a bit more to go to test that 8965 maybe 8955  area , I reckon mate . Looks semi convincing so far @ 8965ish


----------



## ithatheekret

had a go at it , didn't quite make my limit entry , chipping up ...... ?


----------



## Kauri

ithatheekret said:


> had a go at it , didn't quite make my limit entry , chipping up ...... ?




Quite a few on offer at 8890... apparently..


----------



## ithatheekret

Kauri said:


> Quite a few on offer at 8890... apparently..




Oh , well they can't have the ones I'm getting , probably Watanabe clan members , shops put the prices up  inflation .

I'd like to see 8065 tested again though .


----------



## Kauri

ithatheekret said:


> Oh , well they can't have the ones I'm getting , probably Watanabe clan members , shops put the prices up  inflation .
> 
> I'd like to see 8065 tested again though .




  ooops   *8990* i meant..


----------



## ithatheekret

thought so , T'was razzin' ya mate .......

can't imagine Mrs. Watanabe being that worried by inflation , more of a mystery to her , been around deflation that long .


----------



## Kauri

ithatheekret said:


> thought so , T'was razzin' ya mate .......
> 
> can't imagine Mrs. Watanabe being that worried by inflation , more of a mystery to her , been around deflation that long .




  Mrs Watanabe is a dab hand at inflation..    ...
  confirmed 0.9000 option expiry for today"s 15:00GMT NY cut.   Think I've got that one right..


----------



## Kauri

not a dab hand at this...
 not a strong rally... and old Heinekin ashy points to another possible drop... and speaking of drops..   
Cheers
.........Kauri


----------



## ithatheekret

Don't say that mate , I've just cut sick on Skip .


----------



## Kauri

ithatheekret said:


> Don't say that mate , I've just cut sick on Skip .





sorry mate, but when Heinekin ashy speaks...  :


----------



## ithatheekret

and look where it landed ..... bit more and an 8965 buy goes bing need 8962 .


----------



## ithatheekret

&^%$$#**( market buying sux

PS... always looking for a bright side .......... 8965 test held so far .


----------



## ithatheekret

I probaby bought your cover Kauri . Stuff em I'll leave that limit sitting there , been elevator rides all week .


----------



## ithatheekret

Little but more and it will be close to your favourite territory Kauri . Fast money , and we don't mean CNBCD&E either ............

note the 4 price blinks , bit like eachways at pres . might have to get a lump of willow out


----------



## ithatheekret

CAD just under parity again , the kissing cousins are both being played around .


----------



## ithatheekret

I think it's gonna cross underneath near a semi db @9983 expected lower , but I think that's the loonies twice grounded for the run , watch out for Skip now . Metal prices ........ ?


----------



## Kauri

something has to give... or take... soon..
  might be time to fire up a rumour or three...  :  
Cheers
...........Kauri


----------



## ithatheekret

Skip had a hop about as far as the bar , will wait for tinnie then strike , CAD ...... couldn't help meself .


----------



## ithatheekret

:::: 

That looks like three to moi , abandon ship .


----------



## ithatheekret

Skip about to cross underneath ..... paddle that ship


----------



## ithatheekret

CAD yeehaaa exit stage left , time for Skip to bottom out !


----------



## ithatheekret

Skips doing the weird and wonderfuls , res. shows up around 9040-9050 , wouldn't be surprised to see it eventually fold , todays employment data adding to the yield flavour and has sabres rattling for another rate hike .

Will play it out and see where she goes come NY session , looks semi supported at present , favouring a good wind maybe .


----------



## ithatheekret

Looks like a fight starting @ 9025/6 9023 to beat from a reversal only a chip shot up from the last intra day low 9027 to hold the fort ????  Had to have a go at it , might get the swab test ready just in case . stop set like a guillotine .

PS... chart might help duh .


----------



## ithatheekret

Swab please . Immediate res at 9040 , microscope please . Darn good for 10 pip swings .


----------



## ithatheekret

Skips up off her backside .


----------



## ithatheekret

Did we get em Kauri ? Putting up a fight they are ........


----------



## Kauri

ithatheekret said:


> Did we get em Kauri ? Putting up a fight they are ........




pop went the weasels.. or gnomes..


----------



## Kauri

strong selling is tipped ahead of 0.9090 which is *rumoured* to be a large option barrier *purportedly *held by an Asian central bank.


----------



## ithatheekret

I took the 60 , not fighting banks until banks help fight back . Not game to short in case they become a magnet ............


PS.. sold her maj though .


----------



## ithatheekret

This was the first steamroller , bouncing about 9062 , squish goes an Asian Bank ???? POG would be edging up surely ........


----------



## ithatheekret

Sledge hammer came out ..........


----------



## ithatheekret

Cheers for that range info Kauri , managed another set up on it and kept all the previous profit , worked well , thanks .

Set up below :


----------



## Kauri

ithatheekret said:


> Cheers for that range info Kauri , managed another set up on it and kept all the previous profit , worked well , thanks .
> 
> Set up below :




 Serve it up to them..   
  A 0.9050 option strike rolls off at today"s 10am Eastern NY cut (15:00GMT), alongside 0.8980, 0.8920, 0.8850 and 0.8800 strikes. Exotic option exposure is tipped at 0.9090. Apparently selling from an Asian Central Bank helped to cap AUD/USD at a one-week peak of 0.9086 on Tuesday.


----------



## Stormin_Norman

is this information available readily, or are you posting inside 'goss'?


----------



## Kauri

Stormin_Norman said:


> is this information available readily, or are you posting inside 'goss'?




 Sorry, ignore that post, was meant to be a PM... cleanskins are deadly.. sometimes..
Cheers
...........Kauri


----------



## ithatheekret

update waiting for the sticky spots ......


----------



## Stormin_Norman

Kauri said:


> Sorry, ignore that post, was meant to be a PM... cleanskins are deadly.. sometimes..
> Cheers
> ...........Kauri




oh please dont stop posting gossip!


----------



## ithatheekret

Gossip , either Mrs. Watanabe got my trailer to engage or it was Mr Fu ....


----------



## hangseng

Kauri said:


> Serve it up to them..
> A 0.9050 option strike rolls off at today"s 10am Eastern NY cut (15:00GMT), alongside 0.8980, 0.8920, 0.8850 and 0.8800 strikes. Exotic option exposure is tipped at 0.9090. Apparently selling from an Asian Central Bank helped to cap AUD/USD at a one-week peak of 0.9086 on Tuesday.




And down it goes from 9099 and looking crook. Touched 9055 but will it hold?


----------



## ithatheekret

I'll have a go in a sec . busy on CAD .


----------



## hangseng

ithatheekret said:


> I'll have a go in a sec . busy on CAD .




9046 and going down

if it breaks 9040 off to 9025 then I buy


----------



## ithatheekret

I tried here .......


----------



## hangseng

You are seriously good at this. well done!


----------



## ithatheekret

Got to get past 9060 before we have a party . Or it's Saki , maybe a bottle of Suntory Vodka


----------



## hangseng

ithatheekret said:


> Got to get past 9060 before we have a party . Or it's Saki , maybe a bottle of Suntory Vodka





ithatheekret senai san, it be saki 

I feel though it may be touching 9040 soon, 9025 is a dream


----------



## ithatheekret

don't say that I just bought again , like the retests , cements a foundation area in .


----------



## ithatheekret

You do know anyone of you can do this .

Ask Joe if he's got any Louise Bedford books and Darryl Guppy , I got mine , great starting point . Then one day I watched this set of candles being crossed by another set of lines , big spike happened , thought oooooh , learnt sumfin .....
Then found about a journo called Goichi Hosada , and the system I had watched , thought he was pretty chit hot . 

Know the floors and ceilings and find the shelves . Remember the shelves they could be weeks old . Kauri says them all the time , I just don't think people notice or are in other vehicles .

Find the books , have a bath and get reading .


----------



## hangseng

ithatheekret said:


> don't say that I just bought again , like the retests , cements a foundation area in .




9040 has survived 3 times, the foundation has been set.


----------



## ithatheekret

befores and afters .


----------



## ithatheekret

why fight res. just run up then stop .


----------



## ithatheekret

This is where Kauri generally comes in , what's the vindi say ??? I bet big difference of opinions


----------



## ithatheekret

Skips in a brawl again , I think she's sober ..........


----------



## ithatheekret

big time NY yeeehaaa .


----------



## ithatheekret

I consulted the stars , they said aliens from uranus would attempt kidnap .


----------



## ithatheekret

they land anywhere near here they'll be sushi . gotta give it a go , ya never know we could break through , need to tighten up the screws though , don't want the trailer bumped off .


----------



## ithatheekret

I tried this ... risky


----------



## ithatheekret

That got this close ( ---) to my stop then .


----------



## ithatheekret

Thirty years ....... see the trophy cabinet , we want another one or what ?


----------



## hangseng

ithatheekret said:


> Thirty years ....... see the trophy cabinet , we want another one or what ?




Seemingly a good chance of going quite a bit higher. Well picked Friday night, you did well.


----------



## BentRod

Gday ithatheekret ,

                    Can you give a quick rundown on your methodology?

Looks like you scale into positions.
Do you scale out also?
How do you determine your exit?

What is your entry? Is it discretionary or purely systematic?

Hope you don't mind me asking.(Just tell me to get stuffed otherwise)

Keep those posts coming mate, I Enjoy following yours and also Kauri's.

Cheers

Bent


----------



## ithatheekret

I don't actually like scale trading , not what I'd call a perfect strategy . I have scaled when I have missed bottoming and caught first bounce , but only if the price rehits my missed entry position . Scaling is fraught with mistakes IMHO and is like using a spanner to knock in a nail .

If the price starts moving with a bit of poke , I'll start banging away at the buy or sell button , once my target area is reached , they start getting folded straight away . Some entries may only be a couple of hundred dollars , sometimes less up , but they go anyway , $200 is $200 , add a few together and you soon have a grand . I never wait for what could be with a swag or positions , I take what I can get straight away , I will leave a dreg position usually one started at the beginning of a run , just in case moves continues to moves , it then has the trailer tighten up normally . Stops are kept tight and if I see something moving in a way that I believe my stop will get hit , why wait............. other times if I feel the way is safe and my stop is moved on but not hit . I will buy again and take the helm off auto .

None of it can happen though unless I have all the right signals I need and I'm armed with knowledge of supports etc., economic news and sideshow gossip , which is second to economic data for myself , floors ceiling and the like , should be in the ammo crate already , standard issue .

But the most important rule for me is : Don't leave the helm unless you really have to ......... really have to .


----------



## ithatheekret

Example , note 9088 now gone as target hit , but below I have a dreg position well in the money ( there were two ...were ) . I went to grab some 9108s had a 9106 order that was missed , went for a coffee and missed it entirely , tough luck , now I wait and strum fingers until I see a good set up again. The trade must come to me or get within swinging distance to have a go at it , you start chasing any price that comes along and you'll get eaten by savvy Asian traders in our daytime hours . NY trade will devour anything set up wrong . You have to at least have an idea where the swap is heading or where it can fall to .

I learnt the most in the school of knocks , best advice I can give is , never stuff up twice the same way .


----------



## ithatheekret

Here is the latest try : already got a coffee .........


----------



## ithatheekret

This play is a mixture of fundamentals and event trading , a little technicals for a splash of colour . Took a second shot to start constructing a play , we need it to play out yet , had a feww add ons but they have been exited 250's and 300's , bread and butter stuff , these trades can be 60 seconds to say 10 minutes . To lazy to attempt schwings in trends at present , far too much typing to multi task open positions as well . One dreg still in play will get closed prior to instrument rollover .

The main gist of the play being the incoming US rate cut and the next RBA hike in March , that's what I see being built into the swap at present . There are other supporting data flows out there , but the banks have held her back I would say today with the pillars weighing on the Index . ANz and CBA got hit hard , CBA dropped on divvy then it did it again doubling up on the previous move . I was really tempted to hit banks today , but will wait for EOD traders to have a looksie first , they could send them down again tomorrow , dependent on the next bout of US sessions .


----------



## ithatheekret

Test of faith area .


----------



## ithatheekret

I'll put these up in this thread , haven't rehit CAD yet busy doing something else at present not trading related ....... 

Will be back after , just got to get something sorted .

2nd time round on the Yen and lost count on Skip today , be happy if it were more than scalps . Off GBP at present , hauled those anchors in Kauri , just for a moment or two until I can get back at the controls .


----------



## Kauri

have taken a long on skip... possible barrier at 9150 to overcome???
Cheers
..........Kauri


----------



## Stormin_Norman

after yesterday's early rise, i was waiting for the drop before getting in yesterday afternoon.

Just when I was getting worried it was going to go further down it turned. Hopefully the RBA statement is as inflationary biased as expected. That should push the dollar even higher.


----------



## Stormin_Norman

ithatheekret said:


> I'll put these up in this thread




i saw the same thing. there seemed like a lot of bullish energy in the AUD/USD as the USD come off its strengthening.

the AUD/USD certainly smashed through the 9135 barrier.


----------



## Kauri

RBA Minutes: Considered a Rise Of 50 BPS In February  ...
Cheers
...........Kauri


----------



## Kauri

talk of a barrier at 92.. might be a bit of a blue... but can't see her pulling her punches..
Cheers
..........Kauri

PS...RBA Minutes revealed that the RBA considered moving 50 BPS and considered a *"significant further rise in rates could be necessary". *


----------



## Stormin_Norman

i was in at 9113 and have put my stop loss at 9175. hopefully the aud/usd kicks on.


----------



## Stormin_Norman

Kauri said:


> talk of a barrier at 92.. might be a bit of a blue... but can't see her pulling her punches..




hitting it for the first time. lets see what happens.


----------



## Kauri

Stormin_Norman said:


> hitting it for the first time. lets see what happens.




 Has been well defended for a couple of hours.. think our Northern cousins may pop it though..
 Have added a pyramiddie   
Cheers
..........Kauri


----------



## ithatheekret

Just touched 92 then .


----------



## BentRod

Thanks for the replies ithatheekret.

Good luck with the trades Chaps.


----------



## Kauri

taken out on a spike down as Europe came in...   will watch to see which way they want to take it tonight.. I'm still looking for 93 to start..
Cheers
.........Kauri


----------



## Stormin_Norman

i sold out just under 92. i was afraid of a fall on the AUD/USD, as the AUD/JPY went south. 

im still bullish on the AUD/USD though. just waiting to re-enter at the right time. if it keeps in this channel ill look to buy at about 9185; bar that about 9210 if there looks like being a breakout.


----------



## MARKETWAVES

*Aud/UsD*
*E*lliott  *W*aves  Formations at  work ..........
	

	
	
		
		

		
			




  Here  is  a Mid-Term Wave-Count ( 4hr Bars )

------------------------------------------------  
 Price  appears  to be exhausting  itself 
and may moving  toward  s  an  End of  Wave 5 
-------------------------------------------------------
These charts are  an illustration  of what  may  be occuring
*------------------------------------------------------------------  
This  is  only a  Probability ..........  *Not  Cast  in Stone !
-----------------------------------------------------------------
  If You disagree , That's  Ok 

*Just Post your  charts and state your case ..........*
 TIME will then tell all !....


----------



## ithatheekret

Been in the zone , totally enthralled marvi scalp areas in Cable only got the last peak left now . Bl@@dy Motza fun . I'd lay bets it goes for it again . 

Hoping Kauri let's me know when the Yen peaks so I can buy it .....

Skip , I still got a 9084/85 hit in there , was thinking it could get back to 95/94 for a dbl dip ..... next below from that my upper entry zone which are suppose to be dregs . 9190 could be a .........


----------



## Kauri

ithatheekret said:


> Been in the zone , totally enthralled marvi scalp areas in Cable only got the last peak left now . Bl@@dy Motza fun . I'd lay bets it goes for it again .
> 
> Hoping Kauri let's me know when the Yen peaks so I can buy it .....
> 
> Skip , I still got a 9084/85 hit in there , was thinking it could get back to 95/94 for a dbl dip ..... next below from that my upper entry zone which are suppose to be dregs . 9190 could be a .........




Can't help with the yen.. but this might shine a light on skip..

_a 0.9200 option expiry for today"s 10am Eastern NY cut (15:00GMT). _
Cheers
..........Kauri


----------



## ithatheekret

Taking hits at it , sold the wrong parcel spewing


----------



## ithatheekret

minus a few now .......... Her Maj popping her head near the cloud , might fly in and give her a haircut in a min .................


----------



## ithatheekret

Keep getting booted again , well ....... losing signals , be thinking of another backup unit methinks ( def not telstra )
Closed a load off waiting for dip again . ( still )


----------



## ithatheekret

Skips done well tonight , so much so that I'm notching in 9180/90 area as my intra support . Hanging on to what I have as dregs for now . I want to see if we can get past 9330-93310 area , if it does I'll probably buy again , have it pencilled in as a technical area to breach . Of course I just wouldn't be able to help myself on a decent dip though , I think the gold heathens and the RBA minutes stuffed most of those wishes up . Thinking of 50bps , take their wine away please ...................

Speaking of technical areas the first big one that need to be knocked off for a run at bluesky mining is the 9650 area , this goes back a few , but have seen it mentioned a few times in some old WMC reports I have .


----------



## Stormin_Norman

Kauri said:


> Can't help with the yen.. but this might shine a light on skip..
> 
> _a 0.9200 option expiry for today"s 10am Eastern NY cut (15:00GMT). _
> Cheers
> ..........Kauri




cheers for that heads up kauri. proved to be right on the money there.


----------



## Kauri

gone short skip... a bit of a hold-up around 50, may be something coming due around there???
Cheers
..........Kauri


----------



## ithatheekret

I grabbed some at 9140 earlier ........ that spot your chart points to was my earlier buy in hey mate .


9149 did hold that long , Asian push back with an Aussie accent .

Now London and NY take the reigns . Are you up for a hit ? I just swung again deja vu spot for me 9155 , want to see if the last intra support is an obstacle before the 92 option strikes etc .

Hit it a few times though , got carried away without heed of curry trade .


----------



## Kauri

ithatheekret said:


> I grabbed some at 9140 earlier ........ that spot your chart points to was my earlier buy in hey mate .
> 
> 
> 9149 did hold that long , Asian push back with an Aussie accent .
> 
> Now London and NY take the reigns . Are you up for a hit ? I just swung again deja vu spot for me 9155 , want to see if the last intra support is an obstacle before the 92 option strikes etc .
> 
> Hit it a few times though , got carried away without heed of curry trade .




long from the bottom of the cloud... 92 may be a magnet.. was a tad wary before then due to possible exotic 9150..
  onwardsandupwards..
Cheers
........kauri


----------



## ithatheekret

I got stopped to bits.

Having another go at the 9134 again cost me 37 entry , not giving in that easily . got to give some back sometimes I suppose , but not to be making a habit of it .


----------



## Kauri

ithatheekret said:


> I got stopped to bits.
> 
> Having another go at the 9134 again cost me 37 entry , not giving in that easily . got to give some back sometimes I suppose , but not to be making a habit of it .




here too...running with euro.. thanks to the german banks..   
Cheers
..........Kauri


----------



## Stormin_Norman

i went long at 9142. fingers crossed for a bounce at this seeming resistance.


----------



## ithatheekret

CADs thrown a fit , woohoo . Looks like a push at a new high , smells like Funds .


----------



## Kauri

everything is telling me to lop off skippys tail and make malu wipu stew...
Cheers
..........Steve


----------



## ithatheekret

I had to follow those signals , bought the Yen again too , this ought to be good , don't like when we go opposite directions . Saw the US CPI up a flick , can't say it wasn't expected . Discounted the US housing data too , it was up for once , well sort of .........

Good to see oil dip below $100 , should take a photo . Nat Gas yeehaaa moved past $9 .


----------



## Stormin_Norman

commodities are up overnight, but not the AUD. what's the caper?


----------



## Kauri

Stormin_Norman said:


> commodities are up overnight, but not the AUD. what's the caper?





The fall on Wall Street only partly explains the AUD weakness with the main reason being market positioning. The market got very long the AUD against the GBP and EUR after the RBA Quarterly due to expectations that the RBA would hike at least once and probably twice, while the BOE would be forced to ease and the ECB would stay on hold. The rise and rise in commodity prices also gave support to the argument that you "had to be long the AUD". The hotter than expected French inflation data and much, much better than expected UK Retail Sales data has resulted in hawkish shifts in ECB and BOE expectations and sparked unwinding of the long AUD/GBP and AUD/EUR positions. Also the overnight news out of US works both ways... a lower USdollar is good but the fear of recession growing and its affect/effect via commodes on the skip works tother way... hence a lot of chop..  I thunk...

  I'll be looking.. at this early stage.. to buy back in around the 9160-50 area//if all other things line up..
Cheers
...........Kauri
Cheers
............Kauri


----------



## ithatheekret

Skips trying real hard to get past ANZ ...... I mean 92 cents


----------



## Kauri

ithatheekret said:


> Skips trying real hard to get past ANZ ...... I mean 92 cents




A US divestment bank has been in on the act from 9220's lately as well.. I think it is only a matter of time...
Cheers
..........Kauri


----------



## ithatheekret

They arrived late and will have to get on the end of the line


----------



## Kauri

0.9100, 0.9200, 0.9220 and 0.9225 strikes roll off at today"s 10am Eastern NY cut (15:00GMT).


----------



## >Apocalypto<

I don't know fellas,

there seems to be forces at work to keep it to 82.00 huge upside tails. every time it goes to break it just finds that wall of selling! it drove me nuts from yesterday to this morning, then I got out of my long not saying this cuz i sold. I am watching with interest.

on other thoughts it will proberly break up, based off my swissy call the other day!


----------



## >Apocalypto<

some thing is up euro going gang busters, aud following suite swissy feeling some weakness.

i am long on the eur/chf


----------



## ithatheekret

I got set on a 9202 and a 9203 by booboo . Don't know what happened but I  crashed big time . Must of done something , the CPU restarted 

Went to check if something had shorted around the house . Takes a liitle time to get set up again , def not fast enough . chat bricks , didn't have a stop set , nada , had an entry below it at 9195 , thought I'd be an expensive owner , but nope , we're happy .


----------



## Kauri

ithatheekret said:


> I got set on a 9202 and a 9203 by booboo . Don't know what happened but I crashed big time . Must of done something , the CPU restarted
> 
> Went to check if something had shorted around the house . Takes a liitle time to get set up again , def not fast enough . chat bricks , didn't have a stop set , nada , had an entry below it at 9195 , thought I'd be an expensive owner , but nope , we're happy .




you know you're hot when even crashes earn for you..     going to be quite a tussle to keep the lid on around 9220 until 1500GMT...  wonder who runs out of powder first..
Crash on
............Kauri


----------



## ithatheekret

Yeah but she's leaning on the bar at present ( 9234 touched 35 ) , must be just under a pile of stop buys by now ............  wait for it .......


----------



## Kauri

fighting the recent top???
Cheers
..........Kauri


----------



## ithatheekret

I had a set limits exit on one entry @ 9245 one @ 9248 , have others above 9250 , with two @ 92.80 and another @ 93.00 the last two are dregs held over from the last two days , well in the money . 

Have enough space except for the 9202 and 9203 entries , those I have to keep an eye on , each are 5 unit pozzies . Up 1.5K , got to contain myself , have this habit , a grands a grand thing , get a few and you've got ...... a house deposit , hey Kauri ( she knocked it back mate ) .


PS .... my trading says if it ain't over a grand and well past last support area don't roll it play it out to the best and walk away holding only lower dregs .

I noticed not many scalpers here hold the lowest dreg on upticks . These end up as positions , with the lowest risk .

I tend to hold winners from a night that exceed $2K and are above the lowest support previously set , with many in and outs , some closed ina batch that may see some closed at break even , some at $50 up , $100 , $150 , $200 etc etc and so on . Those little but oftens are the running costs and skimming cream of the trades .

I've been interested in if any others plan trades like this .


----------



## Kauri

ithatheekret said:


> I had a set limits exit on one entry @ 9245 one @ 9248 , have others above 9250 , with two @ 92.80 and another @ 93.00 the last two are dregs held over from the last two days , well in the money .
> 
> Have enough space except for the 9202 and 9203 entries , those I have to keep an eye on , each are 5 unit pozzies . Up 1.5K , got to contain myself , have this habit , a grands a grand thing , get a few and you've got ...... a house deposit , *hey Kauri ( she knocked it back mate ) *.




the best ones do on the first date....  :  
or so I am told...
Cheers
..........Kauri


----------



## ithatheekret

:

Skips on the dip , hope she makes it back near 9227 got a buy lim. in there , probably get as far as 9233 just to peeve me off .


----------



## Kauri

trying a bit of cloud walking again... hope she doesn't fall through...
Cheers
..........Kauri


----------



## ithatheekret

Just below that is what I have as intra support .... hourly supp ? bit below the last peak ( 9230), been a very bullish trend .
Have price above cloud in most periods , but watching now on 5min cloud approach ..... Hong Kong harbour ........

Is it telling us anything though ? ( the rise )

I'm looking at the Eurogal dip ..........


----------



## ithatheekret

OOOh Eurogal hop skipped and juuuumped , will she run away ?


----------



## Kauri

ithatheekret said:


> OOOh Eurogal hop skipped and juuuumped , will she run away ?




the aforementioned US names at it again... not getting much of a pull from the purported stops???  costly exercise??


----------



## ithatheekret

Skips getting uppitty now . 9245 coming up or 922's dip ? tenk in fog with price , but to be crossing underneath ........ ooooow , yep for another punt , tight reigns .... if 1 min cross gets it out of cloud .


----------



## Kauri

Kauri said:


> trying a bit of cloud walking again... hope she doesn't fall through...
> Cheers
> ..........Kauri





time to lift... got to get over the next cloud puff...


----------



## ithatheekret

Costly for somone I got 1.4856 - 58 (8x5  ) Got 3 x5 left :


You know me mate anyones money is okay with me .......... especially septics


----------



## Kauri

another cloud walker... hope it's not a cat that fell off...  
Cheers
..........Kauri


----------



## ithatheekret

if that tenk crosses from underneath ......... hmmmm I get either 9187 in cloud drop or 9215/7 above cloud move again ....... eh got a 9195 playing the trailer will snap old man emus legs if it drops


----------



## ithatheekret

Nice dip on the way ??

Heavy selling into 924's area , lots of bulldozers pushing back by the looks too .

Be interesting to see if the last dip to 9235 holds the fort . Have a 9220 limit in , not confident I'll see it yet . Don't fancy chasing the rain down the tracks just yet either . Could end up seeing a tight trading band , think I've got time to get a few coffees in today ...........


----------



## Kauri

popped a stop or 3 at 50... hope it holds..
Cheers
.........Kauri


----------



## Stormin_Norman

the AUD has been very good to me this week.

It's sitting at 9350 atm. I just closed half of my position to see if we have a breakout or a drop down from the 9350 level again.


----------



## Stormin_Norman

my other half a position got sold as the price came back down to 9350 from above.

ill wait for the bottom of this cycle and buy back in i think.


----------



## Stormin_Norman

wahoo what a run! go skippy. will we see 94 before too long? we're approachng the level the market pulled back hard from a couple of months ago.


----------



## Temjin

AUD will soon be at its record close high against the USD since 1983. 

Could be a long term breakout.

I'm glad I'm hedged against the fall of USD with my USD dominated investments. hehe


----------



## >Apocalypto<

anyone thinking counter trend on the AUD?

any short takers??


----------



## Kauri

Stormin_Norman said:


> wahoo what a run! go skippy. will we see 94 before too long? we're approachng the level the market pulled back hard from a couple of months ago.






>Apocalypto< said:


> anyone thinking counter trend on the AUD?
> 
> any short takers??




Big option barrier at 94 has been under seige for a couple of hours now.... am sure our Noram friends will have their eye on it...
Cheers
..........Kauri


----------



## Kauri

Kauri said:


> Big option barrier at 94 has been under seige for a couple of hours now.... am sure our Noram friends will have their eye on it...
> Cheers
> ..........Kauri




a bunch of stops above 35 which if tripped should take us up to near 50 where a lot of sellers are camped... I thunk..
Cheers
.........Kauri


----------



## Kauri

Kauri said:


> a bunch of stops above 35 which if tripped should take us up to near 50 where a lot of sellers are camped... I thunk..
> Cheers
> .........Kauri




 through the stops at 35 and raced to the 50's and the sellers camped there have capped it... for the time being... next after those sellers, if they fall, are option barriers purportedly around 9475 and 9500... possibly..
Cheers
..........Kauri


----------



## Stormin_Norman

Kauri said:


> a bunch of stops above 35 which if tripped should take us up to near 50 where a lot of sellers are camped... I thunk..
> Cheers
> .........Kauri




thanks for that heads up. saved me from that drop. im ready to re-enter once the market starts pushing up again.

just got back in at 9412. thanks for the 35 odd pip gain Kauri!


----------



## Kauri

unloaded and am waiting now to see where we head from here... skip has been way overbought by any measure for quite a whiles now.. only skip doesn't seem to realise that.... must be a correction due soon?? the correction we have to have  ... we have reached wave equality... which may or may not be relevant...  
Cheers
..........Kauri


----------



## Kauri

apparently "_they_" are not buying at this level at the moment.. most of the punters in the market are momentum type funds and the odd littly...  "_they_" are apparently waiting around the mid 93's .. so any downturn could be sharp and unsweet... so "_they_" say... there again...  ah well.. set the alarums and wait...  (I need to make a bit tonight so as I can afford to buy some cheese to go with my wine!!!)   
Cheers
..........Kauri


----------



## Kauri

Kauri said:


> apparently "_they_" are not buying at this level at the moment.. most of the punters in the market are momentum type funds and the odd littly... "_they_" are apparently waiting around the mid 93's .. so any downturn could be sharp and unsweet... so "_they_" say... there again... ah well.. set the alarums and wait... (I need to make a bit tonight so as I can afford to buy some cheese to go with my wine!!!)
> Cheers
> ..........Kauri



 homing in on the mid 93's... the teachers here in the west are on strike and apparently there is one around 50 which will draw some fire... no doubt a picket line will be set up at the gates... 
Cheers
..........Kauri


----------



## Stormin_Norman

i stopped out @ -10 pips on my last trade.

this one at 9375 looks much better.


----------



## Kauri

whenever I look at skip I keep seeing Toulouse Lautrec....  frightening really....   
  with AIG's news... Dell... the UK hedge being clipped... Paulson saying 3 small banks have failed and more may follow.... all looks like risk aversion to me... I'll wait and see how the cousins over the creek react tonight... 
 the fall of US 2Yr treasuries doing a 27 odd point fall in 24Hrs doesn't show much positive sentiment towards the good ole US of A either....

However...    ...  a big barrier at 95 may yet lure skip into the top paddock... the fence just held last night... barely....


then again the doctors may be able to spin it out of the rough and surprise me by taking me behind my legs a-la Gatting...

Wondering
.............Kauri


----------



## ithatheekret

I think we are headed for 96 cents and more than likely 98 cents by June .

I've been buying dips all the way up and playing some positions out , keeping the dregs as I go , got a bit worried as a couple of trades were over the phone and I couldn't get the thing to work properly . I know what one of the G's in 3G stand for now , the other two are a mystery ............


----------



## Kauri

skip is at a fork in the path.. on my hourlys... which way to bound???  
Slainte
...........Kauri

PS 
0.9300, 0.9350, 0.9450 and 0.9500 option strikes raise their heads at 1500


----------



## Kauri

Plurry Nora... I hate these decision points... where are all the sign posts?>??
Slainte
............Kauri


----------



## Kauri

just hd a call from a tired sonding brokery person telling me that skip was a red hot buy,, red. OK... ..hot.OK.....  but a buy???
Impressed
............Kauri


----------



## ithatheekret

I haven't made up my mind whether 9330/93310 ish was a hidden pivot around the beginning of the last run up , got stuck doing other things .

But ......... I'd say that 9320 was def a pivot area .

She's got to test her lows , we've had a confirmation of a reversal ( no chit sherlock huh  ) .

Don't know at present , action says it's should test 9275 or attempt to , closing under that pivot does show weakness , yet again she was well overbought . Stops and the exits etc. would have diluted that . 

I've got line ups in old supports , best I can come up with at present for a max rev. is 9185 , don't think it will , but won't discount it either .

Looking across the main swaps , Her Maj is now looking ovb , nice rally up on reserve currency strategies , the Yen is the same , but ....... will we see 100 breached , big worry for some loans , hope B&B are hedged etc.
The Swissie , well yodalayeooh

If the majors start coming off a bit , we should see Skip go back and test again , 95 is to be breached yet , There's an old high that needs to get revisited , goes back to 1984 ( 9648 ) , that's the focus/fear zone at present .

The next confirmation would need to break above the pivot , if 933 area was hidden pivot , well I'd like to have it breach that into 9345 , need all the specs that would have been in the mellee back before that comes about , unless they've been able to enter the run down , mines closed out already on breach of the pivot area .

Monday will let me know where the cabbies heading .




PS ... noting top of band channel last weeks run through was 9605ish from the low calculated off , at present going off the Jan low 22/23rd area was 9265ish ........hmmm 9255 / 45 's maybe  ....


----------



## ithatheekret

92.75's was the touch so far , a large bid (9.8M units) has been chasing the price , missed a few spots it did ........... so it moved up a few times , so someones keen , my piddly 15 are a mere speck .


----------



## Kauri

I get the 9253 as an important fib point... also have noted that the skip usually goes countertrend on Mon Asian openinings after a goodly move on Fridays... possibly importers/exporters getting set??
 Also I hear that the Aussie CAD is going to be a bit of a shocker... shipping hold-ups?? 
Cheers
..........Kauri


----------



## ithatheekret

Bottlenecks everywhere on the ports mate . Coalers would be banging on Canberra doors ........ missing out on prime time must hurt , but everyone has to get on the end of the line . Export Australia Inc just has to join the queue .

You want first to market sales anywhere , it had better be able to fly . 

Just been going over some figure on Japanese Corps , they're in much better shape than the US . Chit shock and shudder


----------



## ithatheekret

Be interesting now , bids on the pivot . 9320


----------



## Kauri

Apparently US investors are going for antipodean bonds in a big way due to the real rate of return.. on 10tyr treasuries it is 0.93% whilst the down unders show 3.93% and 3.68%.. and they have the same credit rating as treasuries!!!


Links... St Andrews.... 
..and wsj..
Cheers
..........Kauri


----------



## Kauri

skip at an interesting stage re-patterns... after GDP came in much as expected..
Cheers
.........Kauri


----------



## Kauri

with the Fed showing some imagination and attacking the credit malaise from a different angle it leaves them more room to fight inflation, and the punters are winding back the likelihood of rate cuts. In Aus the expectation of further rises is also being ratcheted off... (see Weds Australian and Age).. 
 Once the euphoria of Uncle Bens latest money dump wears off and the the big US banks start rolling out their stellar results soon, risk allergies will once again be endemic...  and skip may find itself squarely in the roo shooters spotties...
 In short,, I'm short the skip...  hopefully for the long haul... currently.. also that yellow metal..   

  Cheers
...........Kauri


----------



## explod

Kauri said:


> with the Fed showing some imagination and attacking the credit malaise from a different angle it leaves them more room to fight inflation, and the punters are winding back the likelihood of rate cuts. In Aus the expectation of further rises is also being ratcheted off... (see Weds Australian and Age)..
> Once the euphoria of Uncle Bens latest money dump wears off and the the big US banks start rolling out their stellar results soon, risk allergies will once again be endemic...  and skip may find itself squarely in the roo shooters spotties...
> In short,, I'm short the skip...  hopefully for the long haul... currently.. also that yellow metal..
> 
> Cheers
> ...........Kauri




Yes looks like a good blast.    


Those hollow points make such a mess too.


----------



## Kauri

explod said:


> Yes looks like a good blast.
> 
> 
> Those hollow points make such a mess too.




I'm looking for a good malu wipu stew... I find solids better.. less bruising..  
Cheers
..........Kauri

PS...
  coily may not play out but I like that it has also crossed under and tested my random number generated white line.. and bounced back... so far...


----------



## Uncle Festivus

Just thinking we might be close to a testing point, breaching the previous high or capitulation?


----------



## Dazza_UAE

Hi all first post -Aussie Expat - Newcomer to Forex. I also have a US dollar loan for a Mortgage, so I have a vested interest in the AUD/USD pair. I am thinking seriously about re fixing the Loan into $A. With all the recent volatility of the AUD/USD and fairly rapid retreat from 0.94 ish in March. I would be interested on anyones (sensible) thoughts on the AUD/USD pair for april to July and possible long range forecast for the rest of 2008? I have looked at various links such as; st George bank - "Dollar out look", Bloomberg TV etc... but have found there are conflicting views and even revisions from time to time. I realise that there is no magic formula per se and that there are many variables and other external influences on a Country's Currency strength. There seems to be lots of information out there but sorting the "wheat from the chaff" appears to be the most difficult part.

http://www.stgeorge.com.au/treasury/eco_reports/dollar_outlook.asp?orc=institution

http://www.dailyfx.com/?keyword=currency forecasts&ad=1015&CMP=SFS-70160000000CrV7AAK

http://www.neatideas.com/ausd.htm

Any advice greatfully accepted.


----------



## ithatheekret

I had a go at Skip on the 9265 bounce and picked her up at 92706 and just again then at 92742ish . Thought I'd see if she's got the pepper to have another run . 94 area still needs 9475 kicked over , if she doesen't behave , I'd reverse and sell a fail . I would expect the 92850 and just above to be a bit of hard tack , but she's moving .

Now if I can keep my eyes open long enough , it could be a long night if resistance ends up support .


----------



## Kauri

ithatheekret said:


> I had a go at Skip on the 9265 bounce and picked her up at 92706 and just again then at 92742ish . Thought I'd see if she's got the pepper to have another run . 94 area still needs 9475 kicked over , if she doesen't behave , I'd reverse and sell a fail . I would expect the 92850 and just above to be a bit of hard tack , but she's moving .
> 
> Now if I can keep my eyes open long enough , it could be a long night if resistance ends up support .





Two sugars??...   


G'day mate..
..............Stauri


----------



## ithatheekret

Tapped back into the zone a few times , just had an alert bleep me a min ago . Will she turn supportive ...... ?

Bit of schwing hey mate ....... 

Might roll the dice too .


----------



## Kauri

May be a small coily forming on the 5 min... butt it coincides with recent highs and also a few stops above 75 are being defended... still it may be a runner...
Cheers
..........Kauri


----------



## Kauri

Kauri said:


> May be a small coily forming on the 5 min... butt it coincides with recent highs and also a few stops above 75 are being defended... still it may be a runner...
> Cheers
> ..........Kauri



 popped the stops around 75... now to see if it was just a stop run or she goes on with it

Cheers
...........Kauri


----------



## Kauri

Kauri said:


> popped the stops around 75... now to see if it was just a stop run or she goes on with it
> 
> Cheers
> ...........Kauri




there are stops possibly just above 9300.. with the usual defence running down just below... interesting to see if she makes a run for them..
Cheers
.........Kauri


----------



## Kauri

Kauri said:


> there are stops possibly just above 9300.. with the usual defence running down just below... interesting to see if she makes a run for them..
> Cheers
> .........Kauri




too early to draw in a possible lower trend/coily line yet, but is worth watching... maybe..
Cheers
..........Kauri


----------



## Kauri

Kauri said:


> too early to draw in a possible lower trend/coily line yet, but is worth watching... maybe..
> Cheers
> ..........Kauri



 What originally may have been the start of a flag then looked more like a triangle and now has the look of a right angled parallelogram...  these things change their appearance more quickly and more often than Micheal Jackson!!

Cheers
...........Kauri


----------



## CFD

Did you trade this Kauri?


----------



## ithatheekret

A cup formation ..... in the making from April 11 ?

If so , it would be nice to see a handle that stays above the 200MA pop out for the run up later .


----------



## explod

Kauri said:


> What originally may have been the start of a flag then looked more like a triangle and now has the look of a right angled parallelogram...  these things change their appearance more quickly and more often than Micheal Jackson!!
> 
> Cheers
> ...........Kauri




Just broken above 93 which off that last candle is very bullish in my view.   The bad news flowing would say the cane is likely to come down on the US$ and drive your trend Kauri.


----------



## Kauri

CFD said:


> Did you trade this Kauri?



 The triangle ... yes... 
the ledge was too messy for me... have just been stopped out for around 2R... I only generally post, in real time where possible, the setups that I am trading..no challenge in hindsight trades.   

Hi ithatheekret,
                    2 sugars??   
Cheers
...........Kauri


----------



## Kauri

explod said:


> Just broken above 93 which off that last candle is very bullish in my view. The bad news flowing would say the cane is likely to come down on the US$ and drive your trend Kauri.





expect excuses to sell the US dollar to emerge in the next few days when earnings from major financial institutions are revealed with a note from Goldmans yesterday predicting they will be "*awful*". The USD got some rest yesterday from better than expected US Retail sales data, but the _data was in USD terms unadjusted for inflation and once the effects of inflation are taken out, *consumers bought less than the previous month*_.

 Maybe once the short EUR/JPY and AUD/JPY positions are covered, the JPY will start to broadly strengthen again due to the fair amount 
of event risk this week. Which also doesn't bode well for the $US generally...  I thunk.. 
Cheers
..........Kauri


----------



## barney

Kauri said:


> What originally may have been the start of a flag then looked more like a triangle and now has the look of a right angled parallelogram...  these things change their appearance more quickly and more often than Micheal Jackson!!
> 
> Cheers
> ...........Kauri





You are a funny man K ........................................................................................  I thunk


----------



## ithatheekret

Kauri said:


> Hi ithatheekret,
> 2 sugars??
> Cheers
> ...........Kauri




Hi cob , 

need more than two mate , school holidays meets growly season this week


----------



## Kauri

another rectangular parallelogram on the 5 min???  a bit of a ring fence been put up around some expiries at 45..

Cheers
..........Kauri


----------



## Kauri

Kauri said:


> another rectangular parallelogram on the 5 min??? a bit of a ring fence been put up around some expiries at 45..
> 
> Cheers
> ..........Kauri




  and thar she blows..  

Cheers
..........Kauri


----------



## Kauri

Kauri said:


> and thar she blows..
> 
> Cheers
> ..........Kauri





Tempted to move stop to B/E but our Noram cousins are in in a couple of mins so will leave them a little room... probably not enough..   

Cheers
..........Kauri


----------



## Kauri

Kauri said:


> Tempted to move stop to B/E but our Noram cousins are in in a couple of mins so will leave them a little room... probably not enough..
> 
> Cheers
> ..........Kauri





Seems like we didn't leave enough room.. down 1/2R.. time to look for the next candidate..  
(Stops are *always* the *difficult* part of *my* trades!!)  
Cheers
...........Kauri


----------



## Kauri

Might be one to watch... would seem to be be pretty well overbought at present, so a move either way is possible... pattern is potentially shaping up.. your call..

Cheers
..........Kauri


----------



## Kauri

Kauri said:


> Might be one to watch... would seem to be be pretty well overbought at present, so a move either way is possible... pattern is potentially shaping up.. your call..
> 
> Cheers
> ..........Kauri



 a few buyers assembling at 65'ish with an oppie defence at the 50 mark if it gets there...  
Cheers
...........Kauri


----------



## Kauri

Kauri said:


> a few buyers assembling at 65'ish with an oppie defence at the 50 mark if it gets there...
> Cheers
> ...........Kauri



 65 seems to be holding... maybe a tentative coily on the 5min charts will sort it out.. one way or tother..
 Cheers
.............Kauri


----------



## Kauri

She did enough to close out my longs but not enough to reach where I was looking to possibly reset..yet    Is shuffling around in a right angled parallelagram on the 5min.. but I don't set much faith in it..
  Usual semi-phallacious rumours doing the rounds about earnings due out...  mm.. a bad report will drop the dollar and benifet Skip... butt... if the S+P drops also then risk-aversion comes back and hurts Skip...

and incidentally a US investment bank is flogging Skip fromm near 9400  

 and the nearest live strikes for NY cut are 9350 and 9400.. whith a relative biggie at 9425...

  Such is Life
...................Kauri


----------



## Kauri

Kauri said:


> She did enough to close out my longs but not enough to reach where I was looking to possibly reset..yet
> Such is Life
> ...................Kauri




 Woke up this am to see that she had hit my reset point and that I am now back in long again...on the hourly.. running a very tight stop on this one... set at B/E already..   

Cheers
..........Kauri


----------



## ithatheekret

I keep getting a possible pullback region in some calcs at 93668ish and 93718 , but haven't seen any thing close yet .


----------



## ithatheekret

no one picked out that booboo , must have been a day ending with " Y "


93668ish and 93718 / 


92668ish and 92718  ahem ......


----------



## Whiskers

ithatheekret said:


> no one picked out that booboo , must have been a day ending with " Y "
> 
> 
> 93668ish and 93718 /
> 
> 
> 92668ish and 92718  ahem ......




Nope. I saw "a possible pullback" followed by a number starting with 9. 

The rest didn't register for me, cos I'm seeing 8's again sometime shortly.


----------



## Akuma99

Some thoughts on the AUDUSD this (not so fine) Monday morning ... hope you all had a great weekend, I am never going to Westfields on a rainy Saturday again ... and I thought the FX Markets were crazy!


----------



## ithatheekret

*I trade naked, does that mean I should always be looking for shorts?
*

A naked trader hey . The puts and calls work fine . Price action is wonderful .


----------



## Akuma99

ithatheekret said:


> A naked trader hey . The puts and calls work fine . Price action is wonderful .




... not to mention liberating and somewhat cool during winter ...


----------



## treefrog

well third attempt to pass the black night on duty at the 95c gate on the way to the holy grail of parity
this run doesn't look too convincing but whichever result, it should have a few legs


----------



## Trembling Hand

Is that a tickle of new highs I see.


----------



## reece55

Trembling Hand said:


> Is that a tickle of new highs I see.




Inflation at 4% probably is helping here me thinks......

And here we go again, AUD breaks out on a new high.... Parity anyone???

Cheers


----------



## treefrog

reece55 said:


> Inflation at 4% probably is helping here me thinks......
> 
> And here we go again, AUD breaks out on a new high.... Parity anyone???
> 
> Cheers




didn't take long to overcome the black knight - looked silly in those shorts he had on anyway


----------



## ithatheekret

I was thinking around June for 98 cents , parity may have to wait until we seen the US crisis is bottoming III . the rate they're going it will have more runs than Bruce Willis and his Die Hard movies ..... 

What about the latest media hype on a rate cut , more road kills for the media roobar . Kev ought to come down off his cloud and attend to the wafflers and spinners , they're just as bad as inside traders , but they have a capability to spin it to thousands of eager ears .


----------



## Kauri

Gold has dropped to as low as $893, helping weigh on AUD/USD. Also eyed are the fall in the USD index to April lows and the fall in CHF to March lows v. the USD. If these dates are compared to AUD levels at the time, then current AUD/USD should be lower, at least at *0.9280 and at risk of a move as low as 0.9100.  or not... I thunk..*

Cheers
...........Kauri


----------



## wavepicker

This EW ending diagonal has resulted in a great 150pip trade today. The great thing here is that this will be a multi week/month abrupt move down the  base of wave 2 of the ED on the weekly chart which approx 77c. At least for this first move down in the bear market.

For now out of the market as my Cyclical trading tool says we have reached an extreme on the 1 Hr chart and a small upward rally should result(At least to the nominal blue line anyway). A good place to reposition for a short. Mind you the longer term Cycle analysis chart is pointing to more downside in the weeks ahead.

Good Trading to All!!


----------



## rederob

wavepicker said:


> This EW ending diagonal has resulted in a great 150pip trade today. The great thing here is that this will be a multi week/month abrupt move down the  base of wave 2 of the ED on the weekly chart which approx 77c. At least for this first move down in the bear market.



I can't see a 20% fall in the AUD as a prospect in the near or medium term.
There are always pullbacks after new cycle highs are hit, and one is now in train for tha AUD.
Were there to be an interest rate cut by our Reserve, then a steeper decline may be an outcome.  However, there ismore chance of a rise in our rates than a fall, putting our dollar on a much stronger footing.
Couple this with massive commodity price earnings and it is, frankly, hard to see AUD\USD parity being further than a year away.


----------



## wavepicker

rederob said:


> I can't see a 20% fall in the AUD as a prospect in the near or medium term.
> There are always pullbacks after new cycle highs are hit, and one is now in train for tha AUD.
> Were there to be an interest rate cut by our Reserve, then a steeper decline may be an outcome.  However, there ismore chance of a rise in our rates than a fall, putting our dollar on a much stronger footing.
> Couple this with massive commodity price earnings and it is, frankly, hard to see AUD\USD parity being further than a year away.





Points taken R.

But interest rate differentials will have little impact in this instance IMO. The rise in the AUD has been more due to the collapse in the USD over the years than anything else. If that situation were to change for a few years which I think it will, starting between now and mid year the whole AUD parity equation changes.

That is the beauty of T/A sometimes. You can see the market churning from the patterns traced out in the charts if you know what you are looking for, and take advantage of the situation. Rather than waiting for the fundementals to catch up.

As I have said many time before, it's the collective social mood of the crowd that sets the trends in the market. Not always the fundementals.

For now the trend is down, and I will exploit that trend as much as possible until the patterns in the charts dictate otherwise.

Cheers


----------



## MRC & Co

wavepicker said:


> But interest rate differentials will have little impact in this instance IMO. The rise in the AUD has been more due to the collapse in the USD over the years than anything else.




Or both?

Perhaps higher expected  relative inflationary pressures in the US adding to the case.....



Collective social moods sure set the trends, however these moods are sure altered by the fundamentals.  

Like you say though, you can exploit the move through the charts, however, when is the trend prooven otherwise?  This in itself can become extremelly vague.  Sure, a wave breaking the rules or ("guidelines") or a pivot being penetrated can help, but in the end, it is a lot more random than most aknowledge.

No idea why people keep having stabs at F/A V T/A, both have their merits and if your making $$, you should not feel the need (not having a go at this thread, just a recurring arguement I have noticed throughout the forums lately).


----------



## >Apocalypto<

rederob said:


> I can't see a 20% fall in the AUD as a prospect in the near or medium term.
> There are always pullbacks after new cycle highs are hit, and one is now in train for tha AUD.
> Were there to be an interest rate cut by our Reserve, then a steeper decline may be an outcome.  However, there ismore chance of a rise in our rates than a fall, putting our dollar on a much stronger footing.
> Couple this with massive commodity price earnings and it is, frankly, hard to see AUD\USD parity being further than a year away.




Rederob

nice points no argument for your reasons.

What I do want to say is, currency trading requires one thing a very open mind to anything! I have seen and do see currencies make highs and lows that would never be thought possible. I am never so black and white in FX trading! you can get very burned or miss out on great opportunities!

here's a example for u, last year 11 July if I said to you based on our rising rates and super strong commodity prices that in three - four weeks time we would make a low of .7645 from our high of .8873 I am sure you would say the same thing but hey we did! see chart.

It's great to have thoughts but mate the market don't care for that and it will and can do anything! have a plan but keep a open mind, as you never know what's around the corner.

Good trading


----------



## >Apocalypto<

wavepicker said:


> Points taken R.
> 
> But interest rate differentials will have little impact in this instance IMO. The rise in the AUD has been more due to the collapse in the USD over the years than anything else. If that situation were to change for a few years which I think it will, starting between now and mid year the whole AUD parity equation changes.
> 
> That is the beauty of T/A sometimes. You can see the market churning from the patterns traced out in the charts if you know what you are looking for, and take advantage of the situation. Rather than waiting for the fundementals to catch up.
> 
> As I have said many time before, it's the collective social mood of the crowd that sets the trends in the market. Not always the fundementals.
> 
> For now the trend is down, and I will exploit that trend as much as possible until the patterns in the charts dictate otherwise.
> 
> Cheers




Great points WP,

what has been the main reason for the high prices in our dollar and commodities. I agree with you the weaker USD. the aud has not done all that great against the euro.

the rates have sure helped with a carry trade on the aud, higher here lower in the states.

If you take a look at the usd chart and the AUD/USD chart from 2001 to now u will see a mirror image! 

like yourself I just make my trades off what the chart tells me. I really don't care about what is happening, I just trade.


----------



## >Apocalypto<

MRC & Co said:


> Or both?
> 
> Perhaps higher expected  relative inflationary pressures in the US adding to the case.....
> 
> 
> 
> Collective social moods sure set the trends, however these moods are sure altered by the fundamentals.
> 
> Like you say though, you can exploit the move through the charts, however, when is the trend prooven otherwise?  This in itself can become extremelly vague.  Sure, a wave breaking the rules or ("guidelines") or a pivot being penetrated can help, but in the end, it is a lot more random than most aknowledge.
> 
> No idea why people keep having stabs at F/A V T/A, both have their merits and if your making $$, you should not feel the need (not having a go at this thread, just a recurring arguement I have noticed throughout the forums lately).




MRC,

this is a forum, we are here to talk and express what we do in our own ways.  by this we can all see new ideas and learn. there is no right way to trade a market there is only your way. we all have one aim to be profitable. if u use FA or TA it does not matter, though constructive arguments with new points of view coming in we can maybe see something that we were blind to before that point or chart was posted. as a forex trader i check all the news reports coming out every day. I have to i need to be aware or what is around the corner. I am not a FA trader and never will be but I have respect for it. I have had many arguments with members in ASF mainly due to my own smart lip. but from this I have learnt a lot and been exposed to many different ideas from fellow members. I think it's a good thing. 

I don't think WP is attacking any one he is just expressing his unique point of view.


----------



## wavepicker

MRC & Co said:


> Or both?
> 
> Perhaps higher expected  relative inflationary pressures in the US adding to the case.....
> 
> 
> 
> Collective social moods sure set the trends, however these moods are sure altered by the fundamentals.
> 
> Like you say though, you can exploit the move through the charts, however, when is the trend prooven otherwise?  This in itself can become extremelly vague.  Sure, a wave breaking the rules or ("guidelines") or a pivot being penetrated can help, but in the end, it is a lot more random than most aknowledge.
> 
> No idea why people keep having stabs at F/A V T/A, both have their merits and if your making $$, you should not feel the need (not having a go at this thread, just a recurring arguement I have noticed throughout the forums lately).




Yes they can be altered by the fundementals, but sometimes not in a fundementally logical manner.
For example, the fundementals could be pointing to an expected market movement but the exact opposite happens.  How do you explain these situations?
It is the  PERCEPTION of the fundementals that is important not just the fundementals alone. Peoples perception is not all the same, in the same way peoples perception of charts are not the same. i.e subjective.

In so far as how one trades or exploits a trend, that is up to them to work out a methodology to do so. There are no guarantees in any trade , that is why it is important to employ what Douglas calls a  "Probablistic Mindest"

You are right about the F/A and T/A debate. Both methods have merits and flaws, but generally one should use what works for them. 

Yes it is a never ending debate I agree but it is also a healthy debate, and has been happening since the start of markets!!

All The Best
Wavepicker


----------



## dovetree

I don't think the AUD rise can be just attributed to the USD collapse. If you talk to most professional traders overseas they still see the AUD as a way of taking advantage of gold. As gold is up so is AUD. If gold pauses ( as it seems to be in a conjestive phase now) so does the AUD. Interest rates in Autralia are a a minor part of the AUD to most Large overseas traders.

We are still seen as a big gold pit.


----------



## wavepicker

Added another 60 pips with a long in todays session on top of last fridays 175. Market rallied back to the nominal level as expected (see link below).

https://www.aussiestockforums.com/forums/showpost.php?p=286709&postcount=854


Now looking to position short again as soon as receive a sell signal, looking for a continuation of the downtrend as daily EW pattern very bearish.

Cheers


----------



## wavepicker

As per last post using of 1 hr bars Cycle went short at 93.85 which was the 0.382 retrace of the entire impulse down from the peak and the area of the previous wave 4 of one less degree. Have added another 50 pips so far on that trade on top of the 235 pips since last Thursday. 

Given the AUDUSD looks like it may have completed an ED(Ending Diagonal) on the dailies, we should be now starting wave 3 down which will be the acceleration phase. This is backed up by the Cycle on the 4Hr chart which shows the first major extreme point away from the nominal is approx 91.5. All higher timeframe cycles are pointed hard down(refer to daily chart whereby daily extreme point is approx 85c)


----------



## Kauri

*RUMOURS*...  a boat builder expected to lay off 200 workers and Campbell"s closing a factory in Sydney.
  Not rumours...  fundies and reserve (Asian) managers on a roo shooting expidition...   and the audjpy weighing in as well..

  Cheers
............Kauri


----------



## Frank D

AUD forming drops in the forward timeframes which suggests there is going to be a drop in the current timeframe... (Monthly timeframes)

First confirming tool is the break of the Weekly 50% level....

2nd confirming tool is a 'test' and reject'  pattern tomorrow.... UP day (test) followed by a higher open and push down (reject)

3rd confirming tool is a break of the MAY 50% level.....

http://forexspread.blogspot.com/


----------



## Frank D

As per Previous post....

Expectation that AUD would come up into the Weekly 50% level as a 'Test', and hopefully a continuation down the next day :- reject pattern

S partial exit around 43 pips @ run stops above highs and hold with hopefully a continuation down on Friday... Nothing to lose now...


----------



## Naif

hi again... i missed this forum so much....
ok the audusd rised to 9650 level... is it the right time to short now??
in the weekly chart, i see that its trying to break up the trend line of the uptrend channel.. and that would happen if the pair close this week above this line but there is pressure and the is also divergence in the RSI...

if the pair close below the line , then i think the next journey is to 9505


hope to see what you think..


cheers


----------



## acmdude

Hi can I get a short term, long term and start of june forcast , maybe with some economic juice not just charts for the aud/usd , what going to drive it to 1:1 or whats going to challenge it in the coming weeks,    thank u much    cheers


----------



## Frank D

AUD has hit May's highs, and Weekly highs and reversed back down into the 3-day lows...

A Weaker pattern will be a rejection from Friday's 5-day 50% level and continuation down on Friday...

However next Week's 50% level then  becomes a trend guide on the direction...

Even though Price in MAY has stalled, these levels will shift higher in June, but there still remains alot of resistance around these highs regardless.

Basically everything needs to unwind in a step formation, because the overall trends are still UP:- first step  just like April's highs is a reversal down into the 5-day 50% level, and then a continuation down from the next day...

Personally I don't care where the AUD goes or direction, i'm only interested in trading 'points' in the market that will often reverse (spiral-points)....

Partial exit around 41 pips and run stops above/below the entry with the target 95 pips... if i'm wrong, I know right away as price will continue into the next Spiral point...


----------



## Whiskers

acmdude said:


> Hi can I get a short term, long term and start of june forcast , maybe with some economic juice not just charts for the aud/usd , what going to drive it to 1:1 or whats going to challenge it in the coming weeks,    thank u much    cheers




Hi acmdude

I don't think most of these guys care too much what the med to longer direction is, they just trade the swings. 

But wavepicker noted some negative divergance back in April and it still persists in todays chart. 

I have been in the camp that the AUD will come back... or more precisely the USD will regain some lost strength. I'm tipping mid 80's for awhile.

I think it's mainly high oil inflation concerns that's holding oil up there so when oil goes off the boil the USD will probably rise and the AUD may come back pretty quick.


----------



## CFD

Whiskers said:


> ~~
> I don't think most of these guys care too much what the med to longer direction is, they just trade the swings.




I think there is a lot to be said for only trading the swings in the direction of the trend.

Then if the trade goes against you, there is a chance the trend will get you out of trouble. But if the trade goes against you when you have traded against the trend, your in deep s... .


----------



## Dazza_UAE

Thanks acmdude. Glad to see someone else trying to figure out the long term trend and/or when the TOP of the AUD/USD will be.


----------



## MARKETWAVES

*Aud/Usd*

 Here  is  a look  at  what  may  be  occurring .......

-------------------------------------------------------------
* Only a Probability*, ..................Not Cast in Stone !

--------------------------------------------------------------


----------



## Naif

Naif said:


> hi again... i missed this forum so much....
> ok the audusd rised to 9650 level... is it the right time to short now??
> in the weekly chart, i see that its trying to break up the trend line of the uptrend channel.. and that would happen if the pair close this week above this line but there is pressure and the is also divergence in the RSI...
> 
> if the pair close below the line , then i think the next journey is to 9505
> 
> 
> hope to see what you think..
> 
> 
> cheers




UPDATE
AUDUSD now 0.9595
the pair fell this level after failing to break the upper trend line in the weekly chart, now we see the triangular in the daily and 4h charts, and any break will take the pair to 0.9558 , and if the hour bar close below this support then we will have a stronger support 0.9541 which is the high of 23rd of April 2008.. 

the target still 0.9508 level...

cheers


----------



## >Apocalypto<

Naif said:


> UPDATE
> AUDUSD now 0.9595
> the pair fell this level after failing to break the upper trend line in the weekly chart, now we see the triangular in the daily and 4h charts, and any break will take the pair to 0.9558 , and if the hour bar close below this support then we will have a stronger support 0.9541 which is the high of 23rd of April 2008..
> 
> the target still 0.9508 level...
> 
> cheers




Hey Naif good to see you posting again man! How has trading been going?


----------



## Naif

>Apocalypto< said:


> Hey Naif good to see you posting again man! How has trading been going?




hello Apocalypto,
yea it was quite good but in November i made huge mistake which is that i did not take care of the money management and i lost a lot.  But i learnt that i have always to manage money even if i have a long experince in forex...

cheers man


----------



## Naif

Naif said:


> UPDATE
> AUDUSD now 0.9595
> the pair fell this level after failing to break the upper trend line in the weekly chart, now we see the triangular in the daily and 4h charts, and any break will take the pair to 0.9558 , and if the hour bar close below this support then we will have a stronger support 0.9541 which is the high of 23rd of April 2008..
> 
> the target still 0.9508 level...
> 
> cheers




the low till now is 0.9513 and we need a close below 0.9541 to see the audusd next week breakin the 0.9500 level..


cheers


----------



## Naif

Naif said:


> the low till now is 0.9513 and we need a close below 0.9541 to see the audusd next week breakin the 0.9500 level..
> 
> 
> cheers




hello again

this week the audusd started the week above 0.9541 and now it seems that 0.9541 is taken and 0.9558 is the first resistance..
todays low is 0.9515.. anyone who went short should move the stop loss to be above the down trendline for the decesending channel in the daily chart.
personally i moved my sl to 0.9620.
the first target remains 0.9508 and horly bar should close below 0.9518 which is the 61.8 fibo in the hourly chart.  the second target 0.9480 

cheers


----------



## Naif

Naif said:


> hello again
> 
> this week the audusd started the week above 0.9541 and now it seems that 0.9541 is taken and 0.9558 is the first resistance..
> todays low is 0.9515.. anyone who went short should move the stop loss to be above the down trendline for the decesending channel in the daily chart.
> personally i moved my sl to 0.9620.
> the first target remains 0.9508 and horly bar should close below 0.9518 which is the 61.8 fibo in the hourly chart.  the second target 0.9480
> 
> cheers





audusd just hit my 1st target , i cashed half of my positions, and moved the sl for the other half to 0.9570

second target remains 0.9480

good luck


----------



## ithatheekret

ithatheekret said:


> I was thinking around June for 98 cents , parity may have to wait until we seen the US crisis is bottoming III . the rate they're going it will have more runs than Bruce Willis and his Die Hard movies .....
> 
> What about the latest media hype on a rate cut , more road kills for the media roobar . Kev ought to come down off his cloud and attend to the wafflers and spinners , they're just as bad as inside traders , but they have a capability to spin it to thousands of eager ears .




15 days late and we have the new US Crisis bottoming III out soon .

To think ...... we've only got as far as the ugly news .

   ............. be nice to go back to just the bad news .

Best stock up on inflight puke bags ! 

That's if the flight hasn't been cancelled .

p...p...p..parity here we come , unfortunately inflation is well in the lead and we have not even made the last turn yet .


----------



## Whiskers

ithatheekret said:


> p...p...p..parity here we come , unfortunately inflation is well in the lead and we have not even made the last turn yet .




Do ya get air sick ithatheekret? She's gonna loose a fair bit of altitude for awhile now... me thinks. 



Whiskers said:


> I think it's mainly high oil inflation concerns that's holding oil up there so when oil goes off the boil the USD will probably rise and the AUD may come back pretty quick.




So far so good! 

What EW count to you guys have here?

I make the recent high the end of a primary wave *3* or *C*... I'm not sure which. I don't know the cycle count. Either way the AUD is in for a decent fall isn't it, say back to the low 80's? 

I think I saw somewhere the low in 2001 being called cycle *V*.


----------



## Garpal Gumnut

Whiskers said:


> Do ya get air sick ithatheekret? She's gonna loose a fair bit of altitude for awhile now... me thinks.
> 
> 
> 
> So far so good!
> 
> What EW count to you guys have here?
> 
> I make the recent high the end of a primary wave *3* or *C*... I'm not sure which. I don't know the cycle count. Either way the AUD is in for a decent fall isn't it, say back to the low 80's?
> 
> I think I saw somewhere the low in 2001 being called cycle *V*.




I'd agree, I've been playing an Oanda simulation account and its in a downtrend alright.

gg


----------



## Wysiwyg

Whiskers said:


> Do ya get air sick ithatheekret? She's gonna loose a fair bit of altitude for awhile now... me thinks.




Hi whiskers, there will be likely RBA interest rate cuts as consumerism slows and from your experience (or anyones) what effect will lowering interest rates have on the Aussie dollar.Further decline is what you are saying and it has already come off alot.

Oh and lose is spelled lose.


----------



## Whiskers

Wysiwyg said:


> Oh and lose is spelled lose.




Hum... I'll have to get a spell checker on this site. 

You're not an english teacher, are you? 



> Hi whiskers, there will be likely RBA interest rate cuts as consumerism slows and from your experience (or anyones) what effect will lowering interest rates have on the Aussie dollar.Further decline is what you are saying and it has already come off alot.




The Aus banks seem to be snubbing their nose at normal protocol with interest rates because they have departed from traditional practice into more leveraged and risky funding sources, but if they continue I would expect some sort of intervention and regulatory change by our gov too. 

In the months ahead I think the AUD can only go down, partly from the prospect of lower RBA rates but mainly due to some flow back to the USD as the worst of their problems at the national level are over and the cost of oil rapidly declines, I think at least below $100 probably to $80... some suggest possibly lower. 

Some segments of the US economy eg residential property and some banks are still not good, but low oil will allow everyone to get on with some normality and as the cost of doing business (from lower oil) improves and confidence returns, employment will pick up and many of the other doomsday scenerios will fade away.

While the US economy has some serious fundamental problems, such as their debt and balance of trade, I think it's not near crunch time for those issues yet, because I think what most people forget is the US has a strong history of ingenuity as has been demonstrated with their intervention and new regulations with the recent crisis. To quote an old saying, it ain't over til it's over.

The bottom line in the short to medium term is some flow of the cash that fled the US to find it's way back home, strengthening the USD and lowering the AUD. The Fall of the AUD will be disproportionately larger than the rise in the USD due to our falling interest rates. However, in about say six months or so as the Aus resource sector gets going again I would expect some flow back to Aus and support the AUD probably around 80 cents.


----------



## Wysiwyg

Whiskers said:


> You're not an english teacher, are you?
> 
> Nuh
> 
> The bottom line in the short to medium term is some flow of the cash that fled the US to find it's way back home, strengthening the USD and lowering the AUD. The Fall of the AUD will be disproportionately larger than the rise in the USD due to our falling interest rates. However, in about say six months or so as the Aus resource sector gets going again I would expect some flow back to Aus and support the AUD probably around 80 cents.




Thanks for your posts, i find them interesting to read.The Reserve Bank Board Meeting is on Tuesday next week so it will be very interesting to see if the worsening economic climate will bring in a hold or reduction.


----------



## Wysiwyg

ithatheekret said:


> 15 days late and we have the new US Crisis bottoming III out soon .
> 
> To think ...... we've only got as far as the ugly news .
> 
> ............. be nice to go back to just the bad news .
> 
> Best stock up on inflight puke bags !
> 
> That's if the flight hasn't been cancelled .
> 
> p...p...p..parity here we come , unfortunately inflation is well in the lead and we have not even made the last turn yet .




Nice style  . There has been a pretty sharp drop off from the .98`s and surely some sort of support will come in soon.I haven`t much experience with what fundamentals make the currencies move.It seems this recent plummet (AUD/USD) seems to be an overreaction to probable interest rate lowering  in the coming months.Maybe a sell on the rumour and buy on the news scenario.


----------



## numbercruncher

Quiet thread all things considered !!


----------



## korrupt_1

noticed this huge spike on the AUS/USD pair...

Anyone else get similar? Strange thing though,... i didnt get stopped?


----------



## Wysiwyg

korrupt_1 said:


> noticed this huge spike on the AUS/USD pair...
> 
> Anyone else get similar? Strange thing though,... i didnt get stopped?





Just logged on and saw that.*What the hell happens there*?? Who buys up that high with an immediate loss ensuing??????

I`ll be damned if they are purely to trigger stop losses.


----------



## korrupt_1

Wysiwyg said:


> Just logged on and saw that.*What the hell happens there*?? Who buys up that high with an immediate loss ensuing??????
> 
> I`ll be damned if they are purely to trigger stop losses.




another fat finger???

who knows... just glad i didnt get stopped


----------



## caribean

it could only have been an IT Finance fat finger....lol


----------



## lasty

charts are only as good as the datafeed.


----------



## Kauri

Closed out my short yesterday... finally..  am now watching to possibly rejoin if this proves up to be an ABC corection... may possibly be in a minor W4 triangle looking for aW5 of an intermediate W1.. ??? maybe...
Cheers
............Kauri

P.S... 30 min chart


----------



## Whiskers

Kauri said:


> Closed out my short yesterday... finally..     am now watching to possibly rejoin if this proves up to be an ABC corection... may possibly be in a minor W4 triangle looking for aW5 of an intermediate W1.. ???  maybe...
> Cheers
> ............Kauri




Bludy good to see ya back kauri.

It ain't quite been the same without ya corny/witty commentry.


----------



## Kauri

didn't quite play out the way I saw it, but still managed to get set, am running a tighter stop than normal, I wouldn't be surprised to see some more short covering afore the weekend, and with the Japanese hols she can be very whippy... possibly..
Cheers
...........Kauri


----------



## professor_frink

Kauri said:


> didn't quite play out the way I saw it, but still managed to get set, am running a tighter stop than normal, I wouldn't be surprised to see some more short covering afore the weekend, and with the Japanese hols she can be very whippy... possibly..
> Cheers
> ...........Kauri




Isn't it a Euro hol today Kauri, not a Jap one??


----------



## Kauri

professor_frink said:


> Isn't it a Euro hol today Kauri, not a Jap one??







> The Festival of the Dead is celebrated from the 13th of August through the 15th in West Japan. Sections of East Japan celebrate it at the end of July. Many companies are closed during this time, although again, as in the case of Golden Week, there are companies which are breaking with tradition.




   If Gold keeps dropping it may bring on more margin/ capitulation sales of carry crosses???? I thunk..   
Cheers
......Kauri


----------



## professor_frink

Kauri said:


> If Gold keeps dropping it may bring on more margin/ capitulation sales of carry crosses???? I thunk..
> Cheers
> ......Kauri




ok I wasn't aware of that one. Looks like there are a couple of unofficial type hols today. Still a good excuse not to work for me


----------



## Kauri

professor_frink said:


> ok I wasn't aware of that one. Looks like there are a couple of unofficial type hols today. Still a good excuse not to work for me




   Almost "*The Festival of the Dead*" for me, got skittled on my scooter at Risely roudabout!!!...  plurry 4WD schoolkid wagons***..
 Have three shorts running on Skip.. may stay at home and watch them methinks..
Cheers
..........Kauri


----------



## CanOz

Hey Kauri how ya doing!!? Glad to hear you're ok.

Skippy is really taking a hiding, Chuck Butler over on the PFennig thinks it might stage a comeback if gold holds the line or rebounds. 

I was worries about it over on Reef a while ago and i should have shorted it to hedge my US PSetups, but alas i have no balls, so no hedge.

Arrrgghgh!

CanOz


----------



## Kauri

Hi Cannie,
              Good to hear from you again.. I've been missing in action for a whiles now...
              I hear an Aussie bank is buying off the 86 level... may be to do with the CSL business???
             The downlegs still look impulsive to me, with the relief rallies not so convincing.. so I'll stay shorter than Tolouse Lautrec until....   well, untill I go long.. I guess...  methinks there are still a lot of stale longs looking for a move up into the 88's to bail, if they don't get it then another sell off looms... mayhaps..
 Cheers
............Kauri


----------



## CanOz

Kauri said:


> Hi Cannie,
> Good to hear from you again.. I've been missing in action for a whiles now...
> I hear an Aussie bank is buying off the 86 level... may be to do with the CSL business???
> The downlegs still look impulsive to me, with the relief rallies not so convincing.. so I'll stay shorter than Tolouse Lautrec until....   well, untill I go long.. I guess...  methinks there are still a lot of stale longs looking for a move up into the 88's to bail, if they don't get it then another sell off looms... mayhaps..
> Cheers
> ............Kauri




Chuck also mentioned that Japenese holders may be looking to unload into any strength.

bugger!

Good to hear from you Kauri!

Cheers,

CanOz


----------



## Kauri

Interesting times for skip... am standing back and watching to see which way she hops...
Cheers
.............Kauri


----------



## Kauri

Overdue Correction... or consolidation/breather to the dominant trend??? time will tell..
Cheers
...........Kauri


----------



## Kauri

Latest fall down to Asian CB's selling to get US$ back after recent local protectionist intervention... as opposed to a dg e te ne 
err s 
uri


----------



## Underpants Gnome

Kauri said:


> Latest fall down to Asian CB's selling to get US$ back after recent local protectionist intervention... as opposed to a dg e te ne
> err s
> uri




Lol, something wrong with your keyboard mate? Or 1 too many beers?


----------



## Kauri

Underpants Gnome said:


> Lol, something wrong with your keyboard mate? Or 1 too many beers?




Phase 1... ferment
..Phase 2... decant
....Phase 3...oops..too much sugar
......Phase 4... where am I
Slainte
...........KiwiKauri


----------



## Kauri

aaHHH.. robots.. when the market is moving... are a beautifull ting to behold... to see her doing her ting after a quick run down to off license.. mmm... if only I twas 10 years younger..
Slainte
.............Kauri


----------



## Kauri

Looking for a possible entry around 8750, if she bounces from there, for a run up to low/mid 90... to give this corrective bounce a bit of bite...   

 Cheers
..........Kauri


----------



## Kauri

Kauri said:


> Looking for a possible entry around 8750, if she bounces from there, for a run up to low/mid 90... to give this corrective bounce a bit of bite...
> 
> Cheers
> ..........Kauri




  in at 8754... for better or worse... if the Cable stops running out she may stabilise..   
Cheers
........Kauri


----------



## Kauri

Skip is interesting.. but for me my kaleidescope is going to take some to reset... so observer only..
ps.. the only pattern that quaffified by my setup was the fluttery thing..

Cheers
..........Kauri


----------



## Whiskers

Kauri said:


> Skip is interesting.. but for me my kaleidescope is going to take some to reset... so observer only..
> ps.. the only pattern that quaffified by my setup was the fluttery thing..
> 
> Cheers
> ..........Kauri




She a bit touchy, kauri.

I'm still paper trading while I decide whether I want to do this regularly, but she's about .8674 now. I'm thinking anytime now would be a good longer term, (few days) short to maybe just below .84 if .80 doesn't prove a psychological block.


----------



## Kauri

Whiskers said:


> She a bit touchy, kauri.
> 
> I'm still paper trading while I decide whether I want to do this regularly, but she's about .8674 now. I'm thinking anytime now would be a good longer term, (few days) short to maybe just below .84 if .80 doesn't prove a psychological block.




Hi Whiskers..
                The US data out tonight might be the catalyst.. especially if it is better than expected..   
  I have a potential H+S, potential sym tri., and potential desc. tri...   
  All up a good fall through 8650 would get me interested... but currently my short term indis. say down and my longer term ones say up, so I will probably be watching...

Cheers
..............Kauri


----------



## Whiskers

Kauri said:


> ... but currently my short term indis. say down and my longer term ones say up, so I will probably be watching...
> 
> Cheers
> ..............Kauri




How long is a 'long term' for a currency trader... an hour... day? 

I'm gelling a lot of FA with my EW, but I like this count on the daily for .84'ish in a few days.

What's this too long for you or not sure of the count?



> short to maybe just below .84 if .80 doesn't prove a psychological block.




Obviously should have been .80.


----------



## Kauri

Whiskers said:


> How long is a 'long term' for a currency trader... an hour... day?
> 
> I'm gelling a lot of FA with my EW, but I like this count on the daily for .84'ish in a few days.
> 
> What's this too long for you or not sure of the count?
> 
> 
> 
> Obviously should have been .80.




  Long term... trend long term... trade term.. whatever is profitable.. I have put a couple of short cables away looking for 175.. but most trades stay with the current trend as long as I can ride it... and my balance is not always the best...  

  The beauty of EW is everyone sees it in a different light... no-one is right and no-one is wrong... the trend is King... EW helps me *try* to identify it.. with velly velly mixed results..   

Cheers
...........Kauri


----------



## Whiskers

Did ya get yer short in kauri?

Is anyone else going short here?


----------



## Kauri

Whiskers said:


> Did ya get yer short in kauri?
> 
> Is anyone else going short here?




Hi Whiskers
 might look to add to short agin soon... 
Cheers
..........Kauri


----------



## Kauri

Kauri said:


> Hi Whiskers
> might look to add to short agin soon...
> Cheers
> ..........Kauri




almost seems a defacto for gold... 
Cheers
..........Kauri


----------



## Whiskers

Just noticed... past my target for leg iii... .8376

Not sure if it'll make the full extension to .8181. 

Just might thought when the US comes on line and they start wanting USD's since Gustav has had little adverse effect and oil is on the decline again.


----------



## jonojpsg

Aaaaarrrggghhhhh!!!!  Does anyone else get that feeling when you know that something is going down but you just fail completely to take advantage of it????!!!!

EVERYONE knew the RBA was going to cut rates today, including me, which made the bleeding obvious trade a short on AUD against basically anything else.

Looking at the charts, EUR, USD, JPY, have all made huge gains since 2.30 and could have been a juicy and "almost" riskless trade.

WHY didn't I do it?  Can anyone appease my sense of frustration at this, or maybe share it for a little "oh well at least whiskers, kauri, et al missed it as well"?

And if you want to rub it in and tell me how much you all made, feel free too.  It might help me to at least feel like my analysis of the situation is a realistic one


----------



## Trembling Hand

Who cares?? One trade gone, many more to come. If you are trading often you will spend 80% of the time looking at charts that "coulda been"

Study the pattern, burn it to memory and move on to the next setup.


----------



## Whiskers

jonojpsg said:


> WHY didn't I do it?  Can anyone appease my sense of frustration at this, or maybe share it for a little "oh well at least whiskers, kauri, et al missed it as well"?
> 
> And if you want to rub it in and tell me how much you all made, feel free too.  It might help me to at least feel like my analysis of the situation is a realistic one




LOL 

Just paper trading this atm, but I'm making sure my work counts for something. I've been 'botom picking' some grossly unwanted shares that will benifit immensily from the unfolding currency, oil, and gold situation. 

Aiming for quite a few 2 or 300%, maybe better, gains in a few months. 

But kauri should have made a bit if he held on.


----------



## Kauri

Whiskers said:


> LOL
> 
> Just paper trading this atm, but I'm making sure my work counts for something. I've been 'botom picking' some grossly unwanted shares that will benifit immensily from the unfolding currency, oil, and gold situation.
> 
> Aiming for quite a few 2 or 300%, maybe better, gains in a few months.
> 
> But kauri should have made a bit if he held on.




pretty hard finding a spot to lob a stop... so am going with the 38 Fib...

Cheers
...........Kauri


----------



## BentRod

Another nice trade mate. 

WD.


----------



## Kauri

jonojpsg said:


> Aaaaarrrggghhhhh!!!! Does anyone else get that feeling when you know that something is going down but you just fail completely to take advantage of it????!!!!
> 
> EVERYONE knew the RBA was going to cut rates today, including me, which made the bleeding obvious trade a short on AUD against basically anything else.
> 
> Looking at the charts, EUR, USD, JPY, have all made huge gains since 2.30 and could have been a juicy and "almost" riskless trade.
> 
> WHY didn't I do it? Can anyone appease my sense of frustration at this, or maybe share it for a little "oh well at least whiskers, kauri, et al missed it as well"?
> 
> And if you want to rub it in and tell me how much you all made, feel free too. It might help me to at least feel like my analysis of the situation is a realistic one



 not sure the cut has much to do with the drop... it was pretty much priced in already and the statement was fairly balanced...
  JPY cross sales.. in particular the AUDJPY...might have dragged her down.. along with commodes???  only guessing on my part though..
incidentally ...ANZ may have a samurai coming up... for what it is worth

Cheers
............Kauri


----------



## korrupt_1

Can someone explain to how to trade the news effectively?

I just don't get it...

It was smooth sailing up to the annoucment of the RBA rate decision.

Anticipated a 25bp cut... therefore the "logical" thing that should happen is for it to go down... but then WHY did it go up some 50pips before doing what it should do after it was confirmed a 25bp cut?

Makes no sense to me...

I've seen this many times on trading forex news... it just does the opposite of what it's expected to do.... why????

I am one frustrated trader... I had a short on AUS/USD with a 40pip SL... which was thought to be safe... i got stopped out... and now im just plain angry


----------



## Trembling Hand

korrupt_1 said:


> I am one frustrated trader... I had a short on AUS/USD with a 40pip SL... which was thought to be safe... i got stopped out... and now im just plain angry




Can you explain why you didn't re-enter the trade on the break of the lows??

Thats what I would be angry at. Not the market moves but you not taking the signals.


----------



## korrupt_1

I did go back in around 8460 when i saw the heavy down trend... but my confidence was shattered... and risked much less than the orignal trade and closed it off at 8410 when it looked like it was going to bounce off the 8400 level...

Should have went back in when it broke down even more... *sigh*.... 

like sand slipping through the fingers.... 

Im just confused with trading FX news...  So... what's the reason for it to rally on the announcement of the rate cut?

Something sinister????


----------



## Trembling Hand

korrupt_1 said:


> Something sinister????




You bet it is. Korrupt its a zero sum game. You have to take money off someone. The easiest people to take money off are the ones that place the obvious trades because they spew them out at just the wrong time because they have crap entries, poor R:R and therefor no confidence.

Then even if they do get it right they have smaller wins than their loses. So one side will always lose while others will always win. 

What side are you lining up on??

Here is a hint from Nick Radge,



> If you are like most people and believe that most important aspect of successful trading is being correct, unfortunately, it's your own ego you're caressing. You can be be a highly profitable trader and lose more often than not - indeed, some of the world's top traders lose more often than not.


----------



## korrupt_1

Trembling Hand said:


> What side are you lining up on??




Thanks TH... I thought the winning side WAS the short side on the AUD today... I guess it still is... but I had an RR of 2:1...  entry was 8482, targeting 8400 with SL at 8532. (80:40)...  Initial SL was set at 8520, but I increased it by another 20pips to make sure i'd not be stopped out be shenanigans 

Out of curiosity, if one was to trade the news, where would an appropriate entry be? Use today's AUD as an example if you can.

I've read that FX news traders do not trade on the instant the news is released (that's what I did today)... but usually 15mins to 1 hr after the news is out....

Still have plenty to learn about FX... thought it would be similar to Indices... but there's a bit more to it than first thought...


----------



## Kauri

korrupt_1 said:


> Thanks TH... I thought the winning side WAS the short side on the AUD today... I guess it still is... but I had an RR of 2:1... entry was 8482, targeting 8400 with SL at 8532. (80:40)... Initial SL was set at 8520, but I increased it by another 20pips to make sure i'd not be stopped out be shenanigans
> 
> Out of curiosity, if one was to trade the news, where would an appropriate entry be? Use today's AUD as an example if you can.
> 
> I've read that FX news traders do not trade on the instant the news is released (that's what I did today)... but usually 15mins to 1 hr after the news is out....
> 
> Still have plenty to learn about FX... thought it would be similar to Indices... but there's a bit more to it than first thought...




 forget trying to trade the news.. trade the trend... *the chart is daily skip*... as impulsive a down trend as you are going to see... pick your timeframe.. find an entry point... whether it is EW..PPS...piggybacking hot tips.. or even astrology... and ride it for all it is worth... don't make it complicated when it doesn't need to be..   

Cheers
..........Kauri


----------



## Trembling Hand

korrupt_1 said:


> Still have plenty to learn about FX... thought it would be similar to Indices... but there's a bit more to it than first thought...




What do ya' mean. The SPI had the exact same pattern... up a bit then down. 



korrupt_1 said:


> Out of curiosity, if one was to trade the news, where would an appropriate entry be? Use today's AUD as an example if you can.




Whatever you have adequately tested and shown to be a tradable pattern in the past. Which is why you are now confused.

If I was being more kind I would say something like this. (which by the way is almost the same as the trades I put on the SPI at the same time.)


----------



## theasxgorilla

I gotta move some money back to Aust, looks like I'll be getting a good rate 

AUD/SEK cross rate pushing levels not seen since beginning of 2007.


----------



## Kauri

the news... or summitt else..
the clean break and close below 0.8500 to begin the new month has sent some of the major macro funds into full reversal mode on AUD/USD, with reports of a UK clearer and German bank having dumped A1.6bln while AUD/USD was still above 0.8400. With gold down $16/oz and oil imploding, the commodity-led AUD bull market is being forced further into reversal. Some diehard bulls had been holding out hope while the pair was above 0.8500, which was a 61.8% Fibo on the weeklies, but it now looks as though the carnage will not subside *until the Aug 2007 nadir at 0.7677 is retested*. 
    The 25bp rate cut by the RBA overnight was expected, while their statement left the door open to more cuts without sounding too dovish. 

cheers
...........Kauri


----------



## BentRod

Every chart I'm looking at tonight is at or near long term critical levels.

AUD WEEKLY


----------



## Kauri

just an idle thought... whilst doodling on the chart..  

Cheers
............Kauri


----------



## Kauri

Kauri said:


> just an idle thought... whilst doodling on the chart..
> 
> Cheers
> ............Kauri





investment banks aggressively selling into a market that isn"t interested in buying above 0.8300.. the market is ignoring reports suggesting that the RBA isn"t going to be aggressive easing rates and instead focusing on the weakening global growth picture that will send commodities lower and thus undermine the appeal of the AUD.
the GDP out later might make or break...
Cheers
............Kauri


----------



## Kauri

almost following the script...

Cheers
..........Kauri


----------



## Whiskers

Kauri said:


> just an idle thought... whilst doodling on the chart..
> 
> Cheers
> ............Kauri




What... the sun going down (below the horizon) on skippy? :


----------



## Kauri

Whiskers said:


> What... the sun going down (below the horizon) on skippy? :




 hope it's not coming up now...
  looking idly for another pattern to form..

Cheers
............Kauri


----------



## Kauri

Kauri said:


> hope it's not coming up now...
> looking idly for another pattern to form..
> 
> Cheers
> ............Kauri




fairly wide range... butt may be ledging???
Cheers
............Kauri


----------



## Kauri

Press reports speculating that NAB and ANZ may announce fresh write- downs of A$1bn a piece didn't stop some bargain hunting in Australian equities, and although the market closed down 1.55%, custodians noted *decent demand for Australian stocks* from their accounts. Similar "bottom fishing" was noted by one of the global European banks that cited *strong demand for A$* in early morning trading yesterday, and through the day. 

I'm on the sidelines for the times being.. waiting for direction..
 always remembering the money can flow out as easily in... a la huas drawers..

 Cheers
............Kauri


----------



## Kauri

TF is way beyond my normal... butt is interesting ... I tink..
Cheers
..........Kauri


----------



## Kauri

I'm not convinced.. the employment index component of the "services ISM" was down - and with poor initial claims data this morning (up 15k) that was lost in the ECB shuffle, it bodes poorly for  non-farm payrolls data, particularly as the ADP report foreshadowed -33k.... waiting... patiently... good whisky takes time to mature... like me   ..

Cheers
..........Kauri


----------



## Kauri

> TF is way beyond my normal... butt is interesting ... I tink..
> Cheers
> ..........Kauri




Liffes hard... then you.. uumm.. (c'mon IVC)..
I guess she broke... I dislike that word.. broke.., for some raison..

Cheers
............kauri


----------



## caribean

I was anticipating a long myself, on EUR and AUD....but we know what happened


----------



## BentRod

Where are Budgie man, your missing all the action


----------



## BentRod

All the other pairs going nuts too.


----------



## Kauri

BentRod said:


> Where are Budgie man, your missing all the action




just letting the robot trade for me while I take an unearned spell.... unsurprisingly it does a better job of it than me..   
Cheers
...........Kauri


----------



## BentRod

Skip sitting bang on that weekly trendline support.

Make or break time.


----------



## Kauri

missed that one... but probably won't be much direction until the US data..

Cheers
............Kauri


----------



## BentRod

Kauri,
        Regarding Fridays, do you take many trades?

The price seems to whipsaw more than all the other days and towards the end pretty much does nothing. 
Given your wisdom in the FX markets, what is your approach?

Cheers.

PS...A serious answer bigboy


----------



## noirua

This sudden turn in the fortunes of the Aussie, makes it look, as if many people are going to be severely burned. It could be "jump out of the window" time, as in 1929-32.  Any Banks that have gone big-time on this, the wrong way, may well be bust now. Au$1.232 to the US$1, at present.


----------



## caribean

noirua said:


> This sudden turn in the fortunes of the Aussie, makes it look, as if many people are going to be severely burned. It could be "jump out of the window" time, as in 1929-32.  Any Banks that have gone big-time on this, the wrong way, may well be bust now. Au$1.232 to the US$1, at present.



Any person or corporation that has sat on their hands watching their fortunes disappear in this manner deserves to loose everything, but somehow i don't think too many serious investors, or traders are sitting on such a huge loss.
80 cents should have been anticipated (eventually) as the most likely target (if not beyond), but you might ask why did it not make it to much expected parity level?....well that says it all, doesn't it?


----------



## noirua

caribean said:


> Any person or corporation that has sat on their hands watching their fortunes disappear in this manner deserves to loose everything, but somehow i don't think too many serious investors, or traders are sitting on such a huge loss.
> 80 cents should have been anticipated (eventually) as the most likely target (if not beyond), but you might ask why did it not make it to much expected parity level?....well that says it all, doesn't it?
> 
> View attachment 23782



Excellent chart that seem to show the Aussie at a support level of around 80 cents.  However, there is another at 70 cents if it fails to hold.


----------



## JTLP

Am overseas atm...can somebody please fill me in on why the AUD is getting absolutely smashed (esp against the USD).

Have we had rate cuts or anything? Gah I thought going around the world at this stage was fantastic...80cents against the USD


----------



## caribean

JTLP said:


> Am overseas atm...can somebody please fill me in on why the AUD is getting absolutely smashed (esp against the USD).
> 
> Have we had rate cuts or anything? Gah I thought going around the world at this stage was fantastic...80cents against the USD




We didn't know you were overseas, now that we do know we'll push it up...umm, how high do you want it to go? just name your price:


----------



## BentRod

A perfect summary of events Caribean


----------



## JTLP

caribean said:


> We didn't know you were overseas, now that we do know we'll push it up...umm, how high do you want it to go? just name your price:




Sorry Bahamas I was looking for a real answer as I don't have time to look at markets and news etc...so was basically hoping somebody could summarise for me.

Too much to ask? xoxo


----------



## BentRod

JT
   There are a million answers to your question depending on who you ask.

The market does whatever it wants.


----------



## Kauri

There is talk in the US that there is a surprisingly large number of funds and investors still holding short USD/long commodity/long EUR/long carry trade positions and the price action seen yesterday indicates that could be the case.
 Also, this is the SIXTH time in the past 14 months that the US has come out over the weekend with a major initiative in an attempt to save thier market/economy, and interestingly the following rallies have been getting shorter in duration each time... so what does that potentially mean for Fred and Fannies rally??? I'm not holding my breath...

 Cheers
..........Kauri


----------



## korrupt_1

Daily charts of A/U are showing bullish divergence on Stochs and RSI.

MACD hasn't quite given the signal yet though... but everything looks heavily oversold...


----------



## caribean

JTLP said:


> Sorry Bahamas I was looking for a real answer as I don't have time to look at markets and news etc...so was basically hoping somebody could summarise for me.
> 
> Too much to ask? xoxo



Sorry i've got a "b" missing, just a bit of fun, don't take it seriously.
As for the aswer, i've got no idea, it's certainly oversold, but that doesn't mean anything.


----------



## korrupt_1

JTLP said:


> Am overseas atm...can somebody please fill me in on why the AUD is getting absolutely smashed (esp against the USD).
> 
> Have we had rate cuts or anything? Gah I thought going around the world at this stage was fantastic...80cents against the USD




Hi JTLP

Like the othes above mention... heaps of reasons to no reason at all... but here are some of the more recent events that have happened

- RBA rate cuts - 25bp
- Speculation of further rate cuts
- Just in today, weaker Home Loans and Retail Sales
- Last week, building approvals dropped, trade balance in deficit again, less construction work done,...
- Stronger USD, lower oil prices,...


----------



## Kauri

BentRod said:


> Kauri,
> Regarding Fridays, do you take many trades?
> 
> The price seems to whipsaw more than all the other days and towards the end pretty much does nothing.
> Given your wisdom in the FX markets, what is your approach?
> 
> Cheers.
> 
> PS...A serious answer bigboy




  Solly to take so long to answer..  been as busy as a one armed paper-hanger...
   Fridays are the days... *usually*... when the US of A comes out with market moving data... so pre/post ann moves can be unpredictable.. and painfull.
   last fliday I wasn't in the mix as.. as posted in various threads... I interpreted the shorter(30 min) TF as a5th wave E?W wise... Nick the Chartist also noted in his excellent service... (  not ramping Mods.. just stating facts ).. that on the dailies he was looking at the end of a 5th...  and also the plunge in prices ( I posted somewheres) looked like capitulation from Ms Watanabe to me...  and a few other thoughts... so I stood on the sidelines... but usually I don't even know what day it is, let alone what I am trading, so Fridays are the same to me as any other day..
  My wisdom in the markets is deceptive... the brilliant trends we have had can make even me look more knowledgable than I am... I run at 35-45% hit rate.. a coin toss beats me... money management,, dats where it's at..

Cheers
...........Kauri


----------



## BentRod

Thanks BM, much appreciated. 



> I run at 35-45%




Heh...your running alot better than me big boy :



> the brilliant trends we have had can make even me look more knowledgable




I agree. 
Wow,  these are amazing moves.
I'm only a novice but looking at the charts, I can't see any moves like this since 92  -->  Soros+cable etc.


----------



## BentRod

> surprisingly large number of funds and investors still holding short USD/long.....




They are hard to get rid of!

I don't get it, will they continue to wear the pain?

At what point will they be wrong


----------



## caribean

Looking at the COT report, it's true commercials are net long, but overall about even (for the EUR), AUD commercials net short, take a look for yourselves


----------



## Kauri

nott the best pattern doing the rounds... butt if Lemmings report is viewed by the market as ... welll.. carrie trade hades... who nose??

Cheers
...........Kauri


----------



## BentRod

> Looking at the COT report, it's true commercials are net long, but overall about even (for the EUR), AUD commercials net short, take a look for yourselves




Have you got a link for the COT?

cheers


----------



## Kauri

Australian employment data to be released at 01:30 GMT and *if* it comes in worse than the plus 5K expected, it is likely to result in an "overreaction" and put the AUD under pressure.

Cheers
...........Kauri


----------



## Investor123

BentRod said:


> Have you got a link for the COT?
> 
> cheers




I often update the COT information in my website. Just click on my signature.
*
Futures Traders Trim Bets on Australian Dollar Gain Vs Dollar *

Futures traders decreased their bets that the Australian dollar will gain against the U.S. dollar, figures from the Washington-based Commodity Futures Trading Commission show.

The difference in the number of wagers by hedge funds and other large speculators on an advance in the Australian dollar compared with those on a drop -- so-called net longs -- was 1,377 on Aug. 26, compared with net longs of 5,950 a week earlier.

In the current environment, Europe, UK, Australia, New Zealand may cut interest rate, while US is the only one who is done with its cut. So base on interest rate differentiate, USD should appreciate against EUR, GBP, AUD, NZD.

In my view, any rally on EURUSD, GBPUSD, AUDUSD, NZDUSD is a selling opportunity.


----------



## caribean

http://www.cftc.gov/dea/options/deacmesof.htm


----------



## BentRod

Cheers big ears.


----------



## Wysiwyg

Investor123 said:


> In my view, any rally on EURUSD, GBPUSD, AUDUSD, NZDUSD is a selling opportunity.




I get the feeling that with such a sharp correction off 98c a strong rally will be had soon.My chart suggests a pivot point support at 79c but for me I think around 75c is more likely.This 30 year chart shows how sharp the correction has been comparatively.Will check the general consensus in the coming few days/weeks.


----------



## Whiskers

Wysiwyg said:


> I get the feeling that with such a sharp correction off 98c a strong rally will be had soon.My chart suggests a pivot point support at 79c but for me I think around 75c is more likely.This 30 year chart shows how sharp the correction has been comparatively.Will check the general consensus in the coming few days/weeks.




Just off the top of my head I had 75'ish in the not to distant future too by EW . 

I'm thinking the sooner it gets to there the sooner our stocks will pick up.


----------



## mr_fred

Investor123 said:


> I
> In the current environment, Europe, UK, Australia, New Zealand may cut interest rate, while US is the only one who is done with its cut. So base on interest rate differentiate, USD should appreciate against EUR, GBP, AUD, NZD.
> 
> In my view, any rally on EURUSD, GBPUSD, AUDUSD, NZDUSD is a selling opportunity.




Has your opinion changed with articles like this one appearing?

http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601109&sid=aYFs3B5DZ36Y&refer=home

With that rally on the AUD$ last night, and 79/80cents support holding a sustained rally could be on the cards to 88cents.


----------



## Whiskers

mr_fred said:


> Has your opinion changed with articles like this one appearing?
> 
> http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601109&sid=aYFs3B5DZ36Y&refer=home
> 
> With that rally on the AUD$ last night, and 79/80cents support holding a sustained rally could be on the cards to 88cents.




What, another rate cut!

Bit hard to imagine. If they did it would surely completely ruin their credibility and throw the markets into turmoil.

I also go along with those who subscribe to the notion that a lot of cash that previously headed for commodities etc for protection is now moving around mainly out of commodities and into USD.

I still think the USD has more to gain and the AUD further to fall... still thinking that 75'ish level before any significant correction/reversal.


----------



## noirua

All I can say about the AUD is, "carry on tanking please". AU$1.40 to the US$1 is what I'm looking for. The sooner the better.


----------



## Wysiwyg

Whiskers said:


> Just off the top of my head I had 75'ish in the not to distant future too by EW .
> 
> I'm thinking the sooner it gets to there the sooner our stocks will pick up.




Well I have gone long with the rest at the moment so any lower `ishes` will have to wait.In a bit late but that is only through hindsight.


----------



## BentRod

Skip seems rather weak Today given the strength of other pairs and Gold??


----------



## Kauri

Will the Japanese go for the deleveraging game... or will the rumours  et al... win out???

Cheers
............Kauri


----------



## Kauri

Have added to shorts.. a tad early for the break... butt I am feeling adventurous...

Cheers
...........Kauri


----------



## Kauri

The AUD is being broadly punished by a sharp rise in investor risk aversion, as fears over the state of the US and global financial sector are reaching extreme levels. *Funds and banks are unwinding risk at a furious pace with some doing it voluntarily while others are forced to do so*. The *VIX index has soared to 31.70* from 25.66 on Friday. 
     Support for the AUD/USD is found at Friday"s 0.8007 low and a break below 0.8000 will put major support around 0.7900 back into focus. Hourly resistance has formed around 0.8090 and a break above that level is needed to relieve the downward pressure. 
     The RBA Minutes from the September meeting will be released today. The RBA Statement after the meeting and the appearance before Parliament by RBA Governor Stevens indicated that the RBA is not set to aggressively ease rates, but is still likely to ease again before the end of the year. There should be no surprises from the Minutes, but even if there were, the FX market is clearly focused on external events in determining the fate of the AUD/USD.

Cheers
...........Kauri


----------



## Kauri

and for the bright fella who just sent me an email suggesting I was calling easy imaginary trades after the fall...  however I would expect everyone to post their trade tickets alongside their ubiquitious ""' glad I went short "xyz" last week..     or not...

Cheers
............Kauri


----------



## BentRod

> and for the bright fella who just sent me an email suggesting I was calling easy imaginary trades after the fall...




What the?

Your one of the only ones that posts real time trades on this forum?


----------



## caribean

Kauri said:


> and for the bright fella who just sent me an email suggesting I was calling easy imaginary trades after the fall...  however I would expect everyone to post their trade tickets alongside their ubiquitious ""' glad I went short "xyz" last week..     or not...
> 
> Cheers
> ............Kauri




Seriously Kauri??


----------



## Kauri

Flat out in a new business that was run down (no.. not a bottle shop)... so ducking in and out... but patterns... you gotta lovem... anyone else trade them??

Cheers
........Kauri


----------



## Wysiwyg

Nice pick up on the shorts there.I can`t use patterns on the gaming tables, they`re all 50/50 to me so I don`t focus on them.Darts are same odds.Plus i`m still a novice or worse at times.


----------



## Kauri

U.S funds were big sellers of AUD/USD and AUD/JPY overnight. AUD/USD dipped to a 0.7865 tripping stops below 0.7900 and the cross tested 82.15 lows. Into London and downside pressures return after some brief consolidation. 0.7855 and 81.45 are now the lows respectively. The market more or less ignored a less dovish than expected RBA statement as the focus remains on the U.S banking sector woes. The fall in the Aussie has been contributed to an unwinding of long trades as opposed to fresh shorts being established. Another drop in crude oil prices to $91.85/barrel aided the Aussie decline.      
there is a 0.7875 expiry due to roll today at the N.Y cut could help stem further weakness into the North American open

Cheers
.............Kauri


----------



## Kauri

The price swings in the AUD/USD over the past six hours have been breath-taking to say the least. The AUD/USD plummeted to 0.7800 when Wall Street went deep into the red and the risk-aversion theme sent the AUD/JPY to 81.60 from the 84.00 level. The AUD/USD then staged a vicious recovery when the mood turned decidedly USD-negative and *investors sold USD and bought gold and oil as safe-have hedges,* much as they did during the first half of 2008. The AUD was also getting from support from the recovery of the Dow from over 300 down to "just" 150 down. Wall Street collapsed again in the last hour of trading and the risk-aversion theme took the AUD/USD down to 0.7915 into the close and the selling continued to 0.784o in very early Asia. 
     The AUD/USD has recovered to 0.7900 in early Asia and traders say that market liquidity is wafer thin. The US credit markets are barely operating and investor fear is at extreme levels. The market is now torn between selling the AUD due to the *extremely high risk-aversion and buying the AUD/USD due to the likelihood of a broad USD sell off/gold, oil rise due to expectations that the Fed will print money like there is no tomorrow.* ....Expect the volatility to continue, maybe.  

Cheers
..........Kauri


----------



## noirua

Rate was 0.7909 to the US$1 a few minutes ago.


----------



## Kauri

as stated elsewhere, my trade book is empty currently, butt, is the skip starting to enjoy risks again??
Cheers
..........Kauri


----------



## Kauri

Kauri said:


> as stated elsewhere, my trade book is empty currently, butt, is the skip starting to enjoy risks again??
> Cheers
> ..........Kauri




well what do you know...  

and "Foreign central banks are going to rethink about whether they will reinvest in the US. They already got burned with MBS and now buying the Treasury debt that is backing MBS, no thank you."
      The US dollar gained in Asia on Friday when reports started to surface late Thursday that such a plan was about to be unveiled. Analysts say that the knee-jerk reaction to buy US dollars was due to the market being short as a hedge against the deepening crisis in the US financial sector. Once the market started to contemplate the inflationary costs of the plan, the US dollar sold off (USD/JPY the exception) and the US dollar index lost close to 2% from the highs seen in Asia earlier on Friday

Cheers
.............Kauri


----------



## Trembling Hand

Skippy is not having a good morning. Must be all the nasty evil foreign hedge funds taking their money back home after their manipulation game has been closed down over the weekend.

Be gone evil shorters :sword:


----------



## Kauri

looks interesting butt nott for me... personally expect a bit of toing and froing until the proposed bailouts affects become clearer...

CXheers
.........Kauri


----------



## refined silver

Kauri said:


> looks interesting butt nott for me... personally expect a bit of toing and froing until the proposed bailouts affects become clearer...
> 
> CXheers
> .........Kauri




The bailout is $700b. Thats bigger than the entire health, defence and education budget of the US. So you can see what it'll do to the USD.

The problem is though the OTC derivs mkt unwind thats happening is over one quadrillion dollars. That's 1300 times bigger than the bailout. Thats like trying to stop a locomotive heading down a very steep embankment with a couple of logs. You can only get out the way as fast as possible.

Now how that relates to what the AUD does in the next 24hrs not sure. Sorry


----------



## Kauri

Haven't seen a better time for patterns in FX... one of the ones I have used to add to posies in the Skip.. (another good flag in the USDJPY last night too)... Investor *risk aversion has morphed into investor terror* after the US Congress failed to pass the Treasury bail out package and heightened the possibility of systemic collapse. The factors that influence the AUD have all turned decidedly AUD-bearish. The VIX index rose to levels not seen since 2002, the Dow had its biggest one-day points fall in history and the CRB index had it biggest one day fall in history. The investor fright is bound to lead to massive repatriation flows by US and Japanese investors and heightening fears over the global growth picture is goi8ng to deter fresh buyers in the AUD as stale longs capitulate. 

Cheers
............Kauri

secong grab is the Yen..


----------



## Kauri

The AUD/USD is under heavy pressure this morning and some analysts feel that there is the potential of a much deeper fall. Investor fear is on the rise and given the moves in the credit and equity markets, the FX fear indicators such as the AUD/JPY and NZD/JPY are holding up reasonably well. The AUD/JPY is still above the mid-September lows despite the heavy fall yesterday. Analysts feel that *if investor fear and uncertainty isn"t alleviated by a circuit-breaker very soon we could see some of the carry-trade strategies suffer a similar capitulation event that US equities experienced*. Asian equity markets are expected to suffer huge falls today and should keep up the pressure on the AUD/JPY with all eyes on Japanese investors as they head into month and quarter- end.

Cheers
............Kauri


----------



## Kauri

The AUD/USD was slugged lower during the Lon/US sessions due to a broadly higher USD, a big fall in commodity prices and *talk of forced selling of JPY- funded carry trades by hedge funds facing huge redemptions*. The AUD does not fare well when global growth concerns are in focus and that is most definitely the case at present. Wall Street saw commodity and transport stocks hit particularly hard, which reflects investor fears that both the US and global economy is heading for a cold winter. The data out of the US lately is only enhancing that view and even the normally uber-hawkish Trichet hinted after the ECB meeting that growth concerns have taken over from inflation concerns, as the main ECB focus. 
 My AUD crosses (short) are  :band  


Cheers
...........Kauri


----------



## noirua

US$1 = AU$1.29414, inverse 0.77271. The Aussie is racing backwards at high speed. Commodity exporters must be relieved.


----------



## Kauri

noirua said:


> US$1 = AU$1.29414, inverse 0.77271. The Aussie is racing backwards at high speed. Commodity exporters must be relieved.





  I guess so... so long as thier export markets are still there in strength ???

Cheers
..........Kauri


----------



## jaithomson

I would have thought our (AUS) dollar would rise, as the US is crumbling around itself... any thoughts..?


----------



## Nyden

jaithomson said:


> I would have thought our (AUS) dollar would rise, as the US is crumbling around itself... any thoughts..?




Commodities are collapsing, and it's all Australia has 
Not to mention the fact that our interest rates are almost guaranteed to fall next week, as well as the hefty rises in the USD lately.


----------



## CanOz

Nyden said:


> Commodities are collapsing, and it's all Australia has
> Not to mention the fact that our interest rates are almost guaranteed to fall next week, as well as the hefty rises in the USD lately.




Definatly commodity related. If we see a pull back in the dollar we may get a bounce in commodities and the AUD. Honestly i can't fathom whats holding the buck up right now....whatever it is it must be under some pressure.

CanOz


----------



## mayk

CanOz said:


> D Honestly i can't fathom whats holding the buck up right now....whatever it is it must be under some pressure.
> 
> CanOz




I thought it was obvious, the crunch in US dollar, simple supply and demand. The supply has dropped considerably and demand is still there, hence the price rise. Of course add myriads of other factors in too (interest rates, commodities, recession etc.etc.)

700B is not a lot of money in a global context. Almost more than that is wiped off because of the collapse of some financial giants. 

CBA in their infinite wisdom, in may (when AUD was hovering around .95) said that AUD will be around 75c near Christmas, how accurate. I thought they were crazy at that time...


----------



## Kauri

bit late in posting... buttt.. where my mornings short stands..

Cheers
............Kauri


----------



## noirua

The Aussie$ seems to be dropping every five minutes now:  AU$1.3167 ( inverse 0.7594) to US$1.


----------



## Kauri

Kauri said:


> bit late in posting... buttt.. where my mornings short stands..
> 
> Cheers
> ............Kauri




  and moving along sedately..

Cheers
...........Kauri


----------



## Kauri

Kauri said:


> and moving along sedately..
> 
> Cheers
> ...........Kauri




 and still sedately plunging..

Cheers
.............Kauri


----------



## Kauri

Kauri said:


> and still sedately plunging..
> 
> Cheers
> .............Kauri




 On the S+P the chances for full blown panic, a meltdown of around 10%+ are in the cards this week (or next) - but I'll be ready to buy into what will be the seeds for a Q4 recovery rally - though in the more intermediate term into 2009 there are further lows to come. A near-term bottom will be made by *globally coordinated interest rate cuts* -- with the ECB the most important factor, as  they *may* slash rates by 100+ bps. and on that note I'm out and off to the scratcher...

Cheers
............Kauri


----------



## mayk

Kauri, why is AUD getting killed. In plain English please...


----------



## skyQuake

Holy crap that was quick!


----------



## kitehigh

Wow,, what a sell off of the AUD, its under 71 cents to the US and also way down on the GBP.  Congrats on your shorts Kauri, you must be very happy.
I'm stoked as well as I get paid in GBP.

Does anyone have a guess as to why the big sell down on the AUD?


----------



## chops_a_must

kitehigh said:


> Wow,, what a sell off of the AUD, its under 71 cents to the US and also way down on the GBP.  Congrats on your shorts Kauri, you must be very happy.
> I'm stoked as well as I get paid in GBP.
> 
> Does anyone have a guess as to why the big sell down on the AUD?




My immediate thought is "who is in trouble?"...


----------



## Kauri

mayk said:


> Kauri, why is AUD getting killed. In plain English please...




dow/S+P are melting... carry and commodity currencies, in fact most currencies, are following as money moves to safety.... the world realises that because some leaders say there is no recession/depression ( when did a depression get relabelled a recession?? I guess the spinners reckon it doesn't sound as desperate) doesn't necessarily mean it is true...  I thunk.
   The big 4 FX trading banks globally report that asset managers had been predominantly selling AUD last week, with corporates, being the *big buyers*, followed by private clients and *hedge funds*, all in good amounts. Over the Asian and European session it was real money accounts dumping Oz, and the specs getting squeezed out after reinstituting some carry trades on expectations that the bail out package would help confidence.

Cheers
..........Kauri


----------



## Kauri

skyQuake said:


> Holy crap that was quick!




  now you sound like an *ex*-girlfriend of mine...   ..

Cheers
..........Kauri


----------



## Kauri

There is _no doubt now that the decoupling theory is far off in the distance_ with money poring back into the US assets and US treasuries. It is becoming quite clear that the regulatory bodies and government"s *will need to be addressing these developments once again with a major coordinated effort* to stabilize the markets. (co-ordinated cuts?? )..

Cheers  ...and goodnight
............Kauri


----------



## noirua

The AUD closed in London at AU$2.4385 to UK£1 and AU$1.4011 to US$1. Probably the biggest reversal by the Aus ever, but the euro faired even worse.

Surprising how the worm turns. I put 25% of my portfolio in US bonds at AU$1.18 and felt sick as the Aussie rose to AU$1.05 to US$1.  What now?


----------



## refined silver

Kauri said:


> and still sedately plunging..
> 
> Cheers
> .............Kauri




Thats an amazing currency chart. 

I believe the day will come when we'll see the USD swoon like that too.

Lots of charts showing things people didn't thing were possible.


----------



## theasxgorilla

Ladies and gentlemen, Australia is now _on sale_.

BTW, what the hell just happened???


----------



## theasxgorilla

noirua said:


> The AUD closed in London at AU$2.4385 to UK£1 and AU$1.4011 to US$1. Probably the biggest reversal by the Aus ever,* but the euro faired even worse.*




Not against the AUD!


----------



## caribean

Gold is up!, anyone subscribes to the idea that, when US stock market falls out of the sky, US dollar strengthens?


----------



## BentRod

theasxgorilla said:


> Not against the AUD!




Can you believe the range on EUR/AUD Today??

1667 pips.

Amazing times.


----------



## korrupt_1

just don't get it... rate cut means AUD gets devalued right?

so why did it rally on aud/usd?

is it the expectation that the usd will cut it's rate as well??


----------



## caribean

korrupt_1 said:


> just don't get it... rate cut means AUD gets devalued right?
> 
> so why did it rally on aud/usd?
> 
> is it the expectation that the usd will cut it's rate as well??




have you heard of :"buy the rumor, sell the fact"


----------



## Kauri

caribean said:


> have you heard of :"buy the rumor, sell the fact"





 exactly.... and here is a perfect example playing out on the markets at the momento...     or maybe "buy the mystery, sell the history"...

story of the morning appears to be the speculated "cap in hand" scenario between the clearing banks in the UK. The *mere suggestion*  in the press that the banks had asked for funding assistance, presumably beyond the current BOE measures, knocked confidence all over again. 
    Sterling was slammed from levels around 1.7575 to 1.7318 vs the Dollar and looks only to have been saved by the news of external help (from Russia)for Iceland.

Cheers
..........Kauri


----------



## caribean

Gold up again, Aussie down, they parted company...for now


----------



## M34N

Is this the biggest fall in one day history? AUD down 9.7% right now to 0.6437US!

Is anyone else watching this unravel? It was .67 only a couple hours ago!


----------



## chops_a_must

M34N said:


> Is this the biggest fall in one day history? AUD down 9.7% right now to 0.6437US!
> 
> Is anyone else watching this unravel? It was .67 only a couple hours ago!



Something is really wrong here...


----------



## Trembling Hand

Yeah  I'm watching it. Not trading it. Less & less has surprised me this year but come on!!! This is nutzzzzzzzz.


----------



## Trembling Hand

chops_a_must said:


> Something is really wrong here...




Yeah like someone at the reserve bank let it slip that one of the big four is insolvent. Bloody hell have we changed our name to the Australian republic of Zimbabwae


----------



## Nyden

M34N said:


> Is this the biggest fall in one day history? AUD down 9.7% right now to 0.6437US!
> 
> Is anyone else watching this unravel? It was .67 only a couple hours ago!




I certainly am. Very disheartening, tomorrow was to be the day I was to purchase some USD as well ... sigh  I've been finding myself rather held-back from it -  simply because of this little belief inside that surely the AUD has reached the bottom. My stubbornness has cost me a bundle of profit, should have bought at .83!

Could be much worse though; imagine the poor guys in the market! Losing 10% on the value of their stock, and another 10% on currency value wiped.

Isn't it obvious chops? Australia is stuffed. We could be in one of the worst positions in the world, not the best.

On a side note; surely the lower AUD has to influence the RBA? They surely cannot drop rates; goodness, going down the route the US has done, and allowing inflation to take over is just plain old nuts. Raise em' to 10% I say


----------



## chops_a_must

Trembling Hand said:


> Yeah like someone at the reserve bank let it slip that one of the big four is insolvent. Bloody hell have we changed our name to the Australian republic of Zimbabwae



Yep.

Or we've had a large default from someone...BNB???

But surely we would have word of it?

Thanks to those over stressed mortgage payers, we are all now a hell of a lot comparatively poorer.

All I can say is I'm glad I'll be earning some coin in USD over the next week or two. Can't say I thought I would be saying that.


----------



## Kauri

I blame in parts Toyota.....

  and of course decreasing risk appetite re: global equity market weakness has helped to fuel the safe-haven yen"s big gains,  The Nikkei closed down 9.4% today, its biggest percentage drop since October 1987. 

Cheers
..........Kauri


----------



## mayk

Here goes my plan to spend my holidays in USA. Now I think I might cancel it altogether...


----------



## Nyden

mayk said:


> Here goes my plan to spend my holidays in USA. Now I think I might cancel it altogether...




That's another thing - I keep hearing that the low AUD will help tourism. Very few will be flying around for holidays during this mess. What nonsense.


----------



## M34N

Well it's at .6607US now or -7%, so clawed back a fair bit from those lows only an hour ago, but for how long I wonder.

This panic selling will surely lead to eventual capitulation, it feels very close now!


----------



## kengaikl

Why are people selling AUD for USD? USD is a garbage currency, they are printing billions to bail out their banks. This is a joke.


----------



## Kauri

*Concerted Rate Cuts, BOE, Fed, BOC, SNB, Sweden. ECB*


----------



## alphaman

AUD has been falling spectacularly, at one stage I saw 65c against USD.

I don't trade currencies, so can anyone tell me what's going on?

I realise we've got rate cuts, expectations of falling commodity prices, and maybe US funds are liquidating, but a fall of such speed against the sickest currency seems to indicate something else?


----------



## Indie

I bought a very healthy amount at .83 and sold 60% of my position at .72 exactly two weeks later. Happy to take the profit and happy I still have some in play. I guess the .60-.70 range is the traditional USD/AUD relationship since floating the dollar so I guess in hindsight it's not such a big surprise to see things back there. But the sheer pace of the fall is unbelievable. So much for the commodities super cycle and China's ascendency. USA still drives the world economy.....for now.


----------



## Kauri

Indie said:


> I bought a very healthy amount at .83 and sold 60% of my position at .72 exactly two weeks later. .





  Well done... I tink???   
Cheers
...........Kauri


----------



## doctorj

You've got to wonder when this will all end. Rumour has it a 50bp cut is on the way here, along with a £50b part nationalisation of a swag of banks.

I finally got something right last week - I transferred a bunch of AUD over here.  But what is the RBA doing?  Are things that bad in Aus that the cut was warranted? Isn't the RBA primarily charged with price stability as against growth?


----------



## theasxgorilla

doctorj said:


> You've got to wonder when this will all end. Rumour has it a 50bp cut is on the way here, along with a £50b part nationalisation of a swag of banks.
> 
> I finally got something right last week - I transferred a bunch of AUD over here.  But what is the RBA doing?  Are things that bad in Aus that the cut was warranted? Isn't the RBA primarily charged with price stability as against growth?




I don't think the RBA is as stupid as everyone thinks, I think this market response is a drastic over reaction (albeit one which puts money in my pocket...), and I think that the Australian economy is far, far, far better positioned to absorb the impact of this crisis than all the scaremongerers are trying to have everyone believe.

On record, I'm buying AUD at this level...ie. sending money from EUR/SEK to AUD.

AUD at 96 cents to the USD and mortgage rates at 10%....hello people!  That's a lot of contractionary financial policy that can be unwound.

The rest of the world might be thinking the same thing a lot of posters here are thinking: that the RBA move is signalling big trouble in little Australia.  Wait until the smoke settles.  In the meantime sit back and watch the fireworks.

BTW, historically (last 30 years) the AUD has spent *very little* time below .55 eurocents.

With Europe and the US proping up their finance sectors and Australia with 4 of the 18 AA rated banks in the world...and our exports suddenly becoming a sh1teload cheaper to buy on world markets...remind me again why Europe or US is a better place to have your money???


----------



## CanOz

Thanks G'rilla. I've been trying to tell my self the same thing all day while I've watched the Aussie get hammered. 

Cheers,


CanOz


----------



## Indie

alphaman said:


> AUD has been falling spectacularly, at one stage I saw 65c against USD.
> 
> I don't trade currencies, so can anyone tell me what's going on?
> 
> I realise we've got rate cuts, expectations of falling commodity prices, and maybe US funds are liquidating, but a fall of such speed against the sickest currency seems to indicate something else?




A 50pt rate cut was always on the cards but the 100pt really drove the dollar down. All the rhetoric points to a further 200pts or so over the next 12-18 months so I think this was a catalyst. Couple this with the demand for USD during the biggest credit squeeze since the great depression and you have the perfect storm for all currencies vs USD. Deflationary scenarios create greater demand for dollars. 

The fallacy that the USD would continue to get diluted by the printing press failed to take into account some major factors:

1) All other central banks in the west are printing en mass too.

2) Credit would be destroyed faster than dollars could be printed by the Fed

3) Even if the Fed printed a dollar for even one being destroyed in credit markets, it can't force banks to loan money and more importantly it can't force consumers to borrow anyway.

That's my take on it anyway. We'll need to wait until after deflation to see the USD get truly destroyed. Hyper-inflation is coming, but not yet.

I considered buying USD a pretty straight forward play and went it hard with little hesitation, and I don't normally trade currencies. 

True geniuses like Kauri went straight for yen which will probably out-perform all other currencies in near to mid term. Masterminds went into gold went we were near parity with the USD.


----------



## alphaman

Indie I don't get point 3. How does that cause AUD to fall against all other currencies?


----------



## noirua

alphaman said:


> AUD has been falling spectacularly, at one stage I saw 65c against USD.
> 
> I don't trade currencies, so can anyone tell me what's going on?
> 
> I realise we've got rate cuts, expectations of falling commodity prices, and maybe US funds are liquidating, but a fall of such speed against the sickest currency seems to indicate something else?



Watching some business TV programmes it appears that the US$ is now one of the safe havens. The Aussie is unfortunate, they say, as the plunge in commodity prices caused a "get me out run on the AUD" and the worse it got the greater the selling.  At some point they will see the advantages of the weak AU$ and dive back in again.


----------



## CanOz

Until risk is served up for dinner again, the AUD will take a pummeling....although its hard to see it falling much more to me.

Look at the Yen, 99.08 to the USD, fell like a rock. No appetite for risk at the moment. US Treasuries though......flight to "safety".

Cheers,


CanOz


----------



## CanOz

Nice little consolidation pattern on the AUD this morning. Anyone setup for it? Kauri? I need a Java upgrade so i'll be on the sidelines until i get home tonight.

Cheers,

CanOz


----------



## Warren Buffet II

The fall in the AUD just shows how bad the aussie economy is and how worried investors are about it.

1) High inflation (4% and going up) 
2) Economy based on commodities (commodities falling like a rock, even today I read that Chinese customers are starting to delay iron ore shipments because of oversupply)
3) The most expensive housing market in the world, with most of the housing ready **** old stuff and costing thousands.
4) People high debt.

So what is good about the AUD? I know, it had a higher interest rate that the rest of the world, that's it.

WBII


----------



## Indie

alphaman said:


> Indie I don't get point 3. How does that cause AUD to fall against all other currencies?




Just making a point that Australia was printing dollars and creating credit just as fast as the US and so were most of the European economies. The idea that the US was debasing it's currency faster than everyone else was not entirely true. 

Our dollar was being held up by two primary factors: a commodities bubble and an interest rate differential (AU vs US) that was quite wide by recent historical standards. This created a high demand for the currency. What we are seeing now is a return back to the AUD's average against USD since we floated the dollar (i.e .60 - .70 range). Once the Chinese domino falls next year I would expect to see new lows in commodity prices (USD) and this would be negative for AUD. We could easily see sub .60 with more interest rate cuts. But really, who can say? A lot of water under the bridge between now and then.

Interesting to note that if you price the ASX in USD it has collapsed in the range of 65%+ this year, I think ( I was never that good at math). But no worries, Kevin Rudd and Wayne Swann said we are doing better than most other markets in the world.


----------



## replicator

There's strong support at 0.6622 last night. Is Chinese government buying AUD?


----------



## theasxgorilla

noirua said:


> Watching some business TV programmes it appears that the US$ is now one of the safe havens. The Aussie is unfortunate, they say, as the plunge in commodity prices caused a "get me out run on the AUD" and the worse it got the greater the selling.  *At some point they will see the advantages of the weak AU$ and dive back in again.*




Hopefully not too soon...I like it at these levels


----------



## Kauri

another lesser spotted prawn pattern... tight stop and will trail aggressively initially..

Cheers
..........Kauri


----------



## Kauri

Kauri said:


> another lesser spotted prawn pattern... tight stop and will trail aggressively initially..
> 
> Cheers
> ..........Kauri




 and stop to just below entry... will give her room to skip from here... I tink.

Cheers
..........Kauri


----------



## Kauri

Kauri said:


> and stop to just below entry... will give her room to skip from here... I tink.
> 
> Cheers
> ..........Kauri




  short... and sweet...
  now to see if a mangrove jack pattern appears..

Cheers
...........Kauri


----------



## white_goodman

Kauri said:


> short... and sweet...
> now to see if a mangrove jack pattern appears..
> 
> Cheers
> ...........Kauri




whats a mangrove jack pattern?


----------



## Aargh!

white_goodman said:


> whats a mangrove jack pattern?




Dark brown to copper colour, distinguished with scales and teeth


----------



## flipztacy

Hi All

Just wanted to know your thoughts on where AUD dollar will end up overnight over the JPY???  

Cheers


----------



## caribean

Fib play (Gartley) completed at around 7110.


----------



## maffu

My probably simplistic and misguided view of the currency situation is the appreciation of the $US is simply due to the fact it is perceived to be "safe" such as the reputation of gold.

I was always taught in Economics that expectations are more important than facts. I believe this may be the case. People are flocking to the safe haven US currency.

Im pretty upset as I have saved up for a 2 month overseas holiday to south east asia. I did my budget when the currency was at 94c, and being taught good conservative accounting theories at uni, i budgeted for the dollar in case it dropped to the 75-85 range. I didnt expect in a few weeks for it to drop under 65c...

I have non refundable Jetstar flights, but im seriously thinking about not going now...


----------



## theasxgorilla

maffu said:


> I have non refundable Jetstar flights, but im seriously thinking about not going now...




I don't know your financial situation but I'd go anyway.  With currencies you'll always win some and lose some.  Case in point, my folks were here 2 months ago, I told them to send me some AUDs and I'd give them 5.75 SEK (Swedish crowns).  Better than they could possibly get, even through a decent Forex agent.  I have extended family arriving today and they're going to be blessed with an exchange rate of 4.75 SEK...plus the gouge rates applied by the credit card companies.


----------



## kengaikl

With the currency in free fall and our banks borrowing heavyily from overseas to fund lending. Will we become the next Iceland?


----------



## Aussiejeff

If the $AUBananaBuck stays hovering at these sorts of levels ($USD 0.630 or lower) a month from now, an awful lot of importers and retailers of imported goods who are already doing it tough are going to be either going out of business or seriously dumping staff.

The reason for this is that the flow on effect takes a few weeks to kick in - most importers/retailers are probably holding mostly stock bought in from a week to a few weeks or a month ago when the $AUBananaBuck was waaay higher. 

However, once that stock has dwindled or sold out over the coming weeks they HAVE NO CHOICE but to restock with goods that are going to be maybe 10, 20 or 30% more expensive. With 1,000's of importers and retailers staying afloat on very thin trading margins in ultra-competitive markets, the downside of the currency slide is really going to hit home hard - not only to these businesses but to consumers as well.

Xmas time is looming to appear like it might not be so Merry this year....


aj


----------



## Wysiwyg

It seems like a taboo issue but how near is the AUD/USD to bottoming out?

The chart back to 1988 has NO drop that we have just had over the last 2 1/2 months.It is insane to think there will not be a bounce back in the near future.2001-2002 had bottoms of around 50c but surely that will not happen in one fell swoop!

There is two possibilities in my opinion and that is a reversal sharp and fast (miss the boat buddy  ) to match the decline or a controlled level out and rise again.

There are plenty of opportunities.Timing, skill (lol) and a bit of luck should do it.


----------



## white_goodman

Wysiwyg said:


> It seems like a taboo issue but how near is the AUD/USD to bottoming out?
> 
> The chart back to 1988 has NO drop that we have just had over the last 2 1/2 months.It is insane to think there will not be a bounce back in the near future.2001-2002 had bottoms of around 50c but surely that will not happen in one fell swoop!
> 
> There is two possibilities in my opinion and that is a reversal sharp and fast (miss the boat buddy  ) to match the decline or a controlled level out and rise again.
> 
> There are plenty of opportunities.Timing, skill (lol) and a bit of luck should do it.




im 100% certain that the Aussie Dollar has a 50% chance of going up in the morning...

heres the daily chart...

AUD/USD

im my analysis i think we may see some testing of the current level followed by a sharp move upwards... dont listen to me tho im novice


----------



## theasxgorilla

I would not be short AUD on open.  After Rudds announcement...UNLIMTED guarantee on bank deposits for 3 years, plus the still existent deposit interest differential expect massive demand for AUDs at these levels.

AUD is most undervalued currency in the G10 block right now, SEK is most overvalued.  Can tell you which I'm sending money right now!


----------



## Wysiwyg

white_goodman said:


> im 100% certain that the Aussie Dollar has a 50% chance of going up in the morning...




Well done! Gapped up like a real bull terror.


----------



## Warren Buffet II

The AU$ will keep dropping and dropping, who is buying this junk?

Even the third world country currencies are beating the AU$ at the moment.

WBII


----------



## white_goodman

Warren Buffet II said:


> The AU$ will keep dropping and dropping, who is buying this junk?
> 
> Even the third world country currencies are beating the AU$ at the moment.
> 
> WBII




im buying it.... of course after i sell it first


----------



## Kauri

Warren Buffet II said:


> The AU$ will keep dropping and dropping, *who is buying this junk*?
> 
> Even the third world country currencies are beating the AU$ at the moment.
> 
> WBII




 today... Singers were in the mix... rejigging their reserves... not all traders are punters..

Cheers
..........Kauri


----------



## tomtwopips

Man the AUDUSD pair has had some wild swings in the last few weeks. I watched it fall 300 pips last week in less than 1 hour as europe woke for the afternoon session. I managed to jump on a few swings - has anyone else really done well from these swings or using any tactics to detect them?


----------



## Kauri

The *FT* is reporting that Chinese government conglomerate Citic is lumbered with huge losses on FX option positions that include writing AUD/USD put options at 0.8700. The FT article states that as a result of the option contracts they are committed to buying 9.05 BLN AUD/USD at that level each month until October 2010.    

Cheers
.........Kauri


----------



## Boggo

tomtwopips said:


> Man the AUDUSD pair has had some wild swings in the last few weeks. I watched it fall 300 pips last week in less than 1 hour as europe woke for the afternoon session. I managed to jump on a few swings - has anyone else really done well from these swings or using any tactics to detect them?




I am getting the signals but they are getting stopped out at the moment.
Below is the current state approaching midday ( I am on the sidelines)


----------



## arco

*Re: AUD.USD*

Nice shorting opportunity taken on the Kumo break and test.

GTA - arco

Edit..............First order closed *+60*


----------



## Boggo

And it finally dragged itself over the line...
.


----------



## arco

*Second order closed at TP

+100*


----------



## arco

Day trading Ichimoku on the 15m chart

Nice easy trade -  *+40 *quick pips 

The chart explains logic at rejection off the Kumo.

GTA - arco


----------



## Frank D

*AUD/USD 5-day pattern and Spiral filter (41 ranges)*

_"At this stage the best  trades (short) are still going to occur either around the 3-day filter highs or the 5-day 50% level rejection pattern.

There will be up days, but for the next couple of weeks it's much the same"_ Previous Weekly Report.

~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~

After Tuesday's reversal down from the 3-day filter highs, and into 
 the 5-day 50% levels, price continued lower and into Tuesday's lows.

Today is another classic text book pattern breakout:- *Breakout of Tuesday's  lows will often come back and test the 5-day 50% level and then continue down into the next day's lows.* *Dilernia principle*:- breakout of timeframe will extend into next dynamic timeframe

Then it's a matter of waiting for spiral pattern 'tops', or levels to short 
and hold, or re-enter shorts as it completes the down target.

*Note:* If it had completed the down move into .6610 
(Wednesday's lows) and then bounced upwards I wouldn't be shorting AUD 
as I have, I would let Wednesday trade out and trade again tomorrow.

Just lucky it has consolidated providing extra trades before it continues 
down into 6610:- random support.


----------



## noirua

The Aussie$ has reached an interesting stage now and is likely to be affected by interest rate moves both here and in other countries, or what people perceive will happen to them.

The British Pound tanked over 4% against the US$ on Wednesday and the AUD rose 2% against sterling. AU$1.496 to the US$1 & AU$2.424 to the UK£1.


----------



## M34N

AUDUSD 0.6256 down 7.7% right now... where will it end??

Cannot believe this flight to the $US is real!


----------



## rthakkar

AUDUSD at 0.6180!! Tonight will be the D-day that will go in history. 

Confirmation from UK, the GDP contracted by 0.5% much more than 0.2% estimates! World is heading for a bigger than expected recession

Yen surging!


----------



## tasmart

M34N said:


> Cannot believe this flight to the $US is real!




An interesting viewpoint of currencies that believes the AUD will do very well out of all this!

http://www.financialsense.com/Market/daily/tuesday.htm

Other stories on this site paint some very dark pictures of the developing problems in the US. This week there are good articles on derivatives and also on the decreasing consumer spending figures.


----------



## theasxgorilla

M34N said:


> AUDUSD 0.6256 down 7.7% right now... where will it end??
> 
> Cannot believe this flight to the $US is real!




No, which is why I'm buying AUDs.


----------



## rthakkar

theasxgorilla said:


> No, which is why I'm buying AUDs.





What makes you think you are right?


----------



## theasxgorilla

rthakkar said:


> What makes you think you are right?




I'm buying AUD with SEK, at levels which make it look like Australian assets have been discounted by about 15% in during the past three months.  Why?  Please explain?  I haven't heard a single convincing arguement.  Knee-jerk reaction to various things, yes, but this? The ex-pats will be back.


----------



## noirua

Quite a sharp reversal for the Aussie to AU$1.614 to the US$1, and AU$2.487 to the weak British Pound.  
The AU$ is one of the weakest currencies in the world, down an extraordinary amount, in fact a collapse.

US$ looks to be the currency to hold at the moment. This could suddenly change, but this knife is falling very fast and could take your fingers off.


----------



## IFocus

theasxgorilla said:


> I'm buying AUD with SEK, at levels which make it look like Australian assets have been discounted by about 15% in during the past three months.  Why?  Please explain?  I haven't heard a single convincing arguement.  Knee-jerk reaction to various things, yes, but this? The ex-pats will be back.





ASX all the USD cross's are getting smashed AUD down to .61

Kauri / Bent you guys out there......


----------



## baja

wow, I saw it drop to $0.6044 not long ago.

So when this sharp correction occurs (previously posted article) with the EUR gaining significant strength, will the AUD also regain its strength against the USD? Or are we completely tied to our down trodden commodities?

I don't trade any currencies, just a regular punter who likes to buy 'cheap' gear from the US.


----------



## theasxgorilla

noirua said:


> The AU$ is one of the weakest currencies in the world, down an extraordinary amount, in fact a collapse.




Yes, as I've mentiond elsewhere, Dankse (Bank) Research had the AUD as the most undervalued G10 currency, and the Swedish crown as the most overvalued.  The former doesn't help you if you're living OS bringing AUD to where ever you are so you can live.  But the latter helps me as I earn in SEK, but plan to holiday in Aust (sooner rather that later now it would seem!).


----------



## M34N

theasxgorilla said:


> I'm buying AUD with SEK, at levels which make it look like Australian assets have been discounted by about 15% in during the past three months.  Why?  Please explain?  I haven't heard a single convincing arguement.  Knee-jerk reaction to various things, yes, but this? The ex-pats will be back.




What sort of time frame are you thinking? The way things are at the moment, what is to stop it from going lower?

Saying that, surely the .60 level will hold, unless we get capitulation tonight... then I would understand buying after that.


----------



## skyQuake

Could be Citic Pacific Bailing out of the AUD...

http://www.ft.com/cms/s/0/1328cafe-9f95-11dd-a3fa-000077b07658.html


----------



## theasxgorilla

M34N said:


> What sort of time frame are you thinking? The way things are at the moment, what is to stop it from going lower?
> 
> Saying that, surely the .60 level will hold, unless we get capitulation tonight... then I would understand buying after that.




I invest/trade Australian assets with Australian dollars.  I just added to my AUD capital base for a 15% discount on 3 months ago, and a 7% discount on the last month.  The timeframe is instant (well, 2-3 business days).

I'm not trading this, I'm more-so being opportunistic and to an extent dollar-cost-averaging.  IMO, when it comes to international transfers the enemy of the good is the best.  If you see a rapid move in your favour, do the xfer.

The next 3-5 years I think Australia will fair better than many places, so long as Kev and his crew don't keep making sledgehammer adjustments to economic policy.


----------



## CanOz

theasxgorilla said:


> I invest/trade Australian assets with Australian dollars.  I just added to my AUD capital base for a 15% discount on 3 months ago, and a 7% discount on the last month.  The timeframe is instant (well, 2-3 business days).
> 
> I'm not trading this, I'm more-so being opportunistic and to an extent dollar-cost-averaging.  IMO, when it comes to international transfers the enemy of the good is the best.  If you see a rapid move in your favour, do the xfer.
> 
> The next 3-5 years I think Australia will fair better than many places, so long as Kev and his crew don't keep making sledgehammer adjustments to economic policy.




I agree here, i'll be trying to move some RMB out to AUD on Monday if these levels persist. It will pay for my holiday!

Cheers,


CanOz


----------



## theasxgorilla

skyQuake said:


> Could be Citic Pacific Bailing out of the AUD...
> 
> http://www.ft.com/cms/s/0/1328cafe-9f95-11dd-a3fa-000077b07658.html




Yeah, Citi Pacific may have had a good hand, and they've still been forced to fold due to the Electronic Herd going all-in on a pair of 3s!  What can you do??? it's the _herd_!


----------



## Gundini

Sounds like a very smart play!


----------



## noirua

This situation is beginning to become a bit of a mess. Australia seems to have been bundled in with all the dodgy Asian countries. Many of which will have to let their Banks collapse.

There was a nervous reaction when Argentina seized all the countries private pension fund assets.

Belarus, Ukraine, Hungary, Iceland and Pakistan have applied for $20 billion of loans from the IMF.  Iceland have agreed terms on their $2 billion loan.

The Yen gained 19% last week against the Aussie and the NZ.

The Aussie Government really do need to take a firm and certain hand here.  Otherwise, the AUD will hit AU$2 to the US$1. Bank uncertainties do not help as few believe what any of them say.


----------



## Senaka

AUD could test .5900 area or even lower next week.


----------



## Aussiejeff

That late buying support must have been the RBA intervention. Seems they are getting the jitters that AUD will drop below 60c with unwinding of the Yen carry trades.

http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601087&sid=aKuCBtGS2vHA&refer=home

Anyone know exactly how much the RBA is chucking at the $AUBananaBuck? Is there a link to that up to date info?


----------



## Aussiejeff

Woah!

Big jump in AUD underway right now. Could be result of Bank of Korea slashing rate by 75 basis points?


----------



## Kauri

Aussiejeff said:


> Woah!
> 
> Big jump in AUD underway right now. Could be result of Bank of Korea slashing rate by 75 basis points?




G7 *maybe* will be issuing a joint statement.... *possibly* addressing the FX volatility, in particular the yen... intervention *may* be on the way, to help/try to help, stabilise the markets.... so shorts are unloading in case... *I thunk*

Cheers
.............Kauri

P.S.  
news filteringout that the BOJ (or BOJ proxies) were supporting 
USD/JPY below 92. USD/JPY jumped on the talk and took the Aussie in tow. 
Also stories that the RBA had confirmed that they had bought 
AUD on Friday night around 0.6130 with the official word that it was to "add 
liquidity in an illiquid market"


----------



## Aussiejeff

Crikey. The RBA is dipping into the till again - buying up $BananBuck$ this afternoon to try and support the Lil' Aussie Bleeder.

None of the news items I have read indicates any $ cost figures. Has anyone got a link that shows exactly how much of ordinary Australian's hard-earned taxes has been splurged by the RBA during it's two buying sprees in the last few days?


aj


----------



## michael_selway

Aussiejeff said:


> Crikey. The RBA is dipping into the till again - buying up $BananBuck$ this afternoon to try and support the Lil' Aussie Bleeder.
> 
> None of the news items I have read indicates any $ cost figures. Has anyone got a link that shows exactly how much of ordinary Australian's hard-earned taxes has been splurged by the RBA during it's two buying sprees in the last few days?
> 
> 
> aj




Hm could be interesting days ahead







thx

MS


----------



## Aussiejeff

Ooops. Looks like the RBA's weak hand has been called....

$AUBananaBuck$ being pummelled by Crazy Yen again. Back down she goes to 60.7c.

Will the RBA try to up the ante AGAIN, tonight?

How many more chips do the RBA have in this Poker Game To End All Poker Games?

Stay tuned.....


----------



## kitehigh

The RBA tried this last time our dollar tanked, all it did was give support for around 24 hrs max before the selling resumed in earnest.  What a cop out by the RBA to try to justify their interference in the market by say they were introducing Liquidity into an Illiquid market.  Here is a quote from the RBA own website.

*"In terms of global turnover, the AUD/USD is the fourth most traded currency pair and the Australian dollar is the sixth most traded currency. The Australian foreign exchange market is the seventh largest in the world."

http://www.rba.gov.au/PublicationsAndResearch/Bulletin/bu_jan08/aus_fx_derivatives_mrkts.html*

They must think we are all dumbed down sheeple, who are incapable of thinking for ourselves....bahhhhhhhhhh


----------



## noirua

Good grief! It's 0.607 USD (AU$1.645 reverse) to the AUD.  Up until recently this move would indicate a banana republic.  
However, exchange movements tend to go much farther than they should as speculators, of the George Soros ilk, move in to take profits.
Once commodities rebound, a small rebound maybe, there should be a sudden recovery.
I'm moving out of my US Dollar Bonds/Treasuries this week and leaving any further exchange rate gains for the next guy.


----------



## caribean

It still looks ready to plunge again with a descending triangle on the hourly with good targets below at 5850 & 5730, but, usually those triangles provide a low risk long opportunity on the smaller TF's (1 min ,5 min), which is a bit harder to do in currency futures atm due to larger spreads from a "thin" market.
At round 6135 we had a support become resistance, and we may see the same happen around the 6035 area...


----------



## Aussiejeff

noirua said:


> Good grief! It's 0.607 USD (AU$1.645 reverse) to the AUD.  Up until recently this move would indicate a banana republic.
> However, exchange movements tend to go much farther than they should as speculators, of the George Soros ilk, move in to take profits.
> Once commodities rebound, a small rebound maybe, there should be a sudden recovery.
> I'm moving out of my US Dollar Bonds/Treasuries this week and leaving any further exchange rate gains for the next guy.




At .603 USD now.

The three month exchange charts are pretty grim viewing. Lucky for us the drop in the AUD vs Chinese Yuan (-35%) is "relatively" a lot less than against the USD (-37%) or JPY (-44%)!!


----------



## bluelabel

Had a discussion yesterday and it came up that if interest rates drop further that the dollar will hit about $0.45USD.  

What are everyone’s thoughts on this?

I can’t see a reason for it happening, with Australian interest rates still higher than a lot of others, we are still a relatively good place to invest, and our economy is relatively stable.  History also shows that just because interest rates are low doesn’t mean that the dollar has to drop.  Is this the case now?

:bier:

 blue


----------



## Aussiejeff

slipppping ....

Now .6011 USD

Will it break .60 today or will RBA play a Joker?


----------



## arco

.
Due to the daily separation of Tenken/Kijun (Blue/Red) its possible for a north move occur in the near future IMO. - Big range, but within 0-200 pips.

This north move can be traded once a reversal signal is received on the lower timeframes.

rgds - arco


----------



## Indie

bluelabel said:


> Had a discussion yesterday and it came up that if interest rates drop further that the dollar will hit about $0.45USD.
> 
> What are everyone’s thoughts on this?
> 
> I can’t see a reason for it happening, with Australian interest rates still higher than a lot of others, we are still a relatively good place to invest, and our economy is relatively stable.  History also shows that just because interest rates are low doesn’t mean that the dollar has to drop.  Is this the case now?
> 
> :bier:
> 
> blue





Interest rate differential is a key driver.

There's lots of carry trade to unwind and I suspect this is the main driver for USD and Yen strength in the current climate. 

AUD - USD will continue to suffer as carries unwind. Falling interest rates will drive the currency lower in this climate. Sub 50 is on the cards at some point in the next 6 months but at the rate things are moving it could be sooner rather than later.


----------



## Aussiejeff

RBA still playing roulette & poker with the AUD.

I still can't find ANY info on HOW MUCH they are spending to prop the li'l bugger up. Nada on their website - unless it is buried somewhere hard to find?

How can the Australian public have any clue (or confidence) about what is going on unless they tell us the actual monetary figures? Is it $AU2 Billion? $AU4 Billion? Who knows?

How much of the Public Monies kitty is left?

*sigh*

End rant.


aj


----------



## Indie

Crazy aj. Official reports where saying they were only "providing liquidity because there were no buyers present in the market". WTF? Using taxpayer dollars. This type of action usually ends in traders testing and breaking a central banks' resolve.


----------



## Aussiejeff

Indie said:


> Crazy aj. Official reports where saying they were only "providing liquidity because there were no buyers present in the market". WTF? Using taxpayer dollars. This type of action usually ends in traders testing and breaking a central banks' resolve.




As far as I am aware, the RBA is NOT a private company and should therefore be FULLY and OPENLY accountable to the public for its actions when it comes to jiggling the public purse. Why can't they make a media announcement after each day they buy up $AUD - ie: something along the lines of "Today the RBA took the decision to make a Forex purchase of $AUDxxx,xxx,xxx,xxx which leaves X amount of $AUD in Cash Reserves for future purchases".

As it stands, while wearing the Official Cloak Of Secrecy it must be great to be one of their Forex "refresh monkeys", plonked in front of his 'puter and hitting the "BUY" button everytime the lil' bleeder hits USD.603! How thrilling it must feel to feed $AUDmillion tokens into the slot each time without having ANY accountability problem. 

*sigh*

end rant part deux


----------



## kitehigh

Indie said:


> Crazy aj. Official reports where saying they were only "providing liquidity because there were no buyers present in the market". WTF? Using taxpayer dollars. This type of action usually ends in traders testing and breaking a central banks' resolve.




What Bull dust is the official statement, I already showed a link from the RBA own website showing that the AUD is the sixth most traded currency in the world.  This is just one of those statements they throw out that sounds legit to the average punter on the street.  Meanwhile they are engaging in market manipulation with a unlimited checkbook.  Didn't work before, and not going to work now.  Unless of course they are prepared to create more money out of thin air and drive inflation even higher thus stealing from everyone who has money saved!!


----------



## arco

arco said:


> .
> Due to the daily separation of Tenken/Kijun (Blue/Red) *its possible for a north move occur in the near future* IMO. - Big range, but within 0-200 pips.
> 
> This north move can be traded once a reversal signal is received on the lower time-frames.
> 
> rgds - arco




1 HR time frame Ichimoku signal was given at .6207 for circa 590 pips max so far

GTA - arco


----------



## Lachlan6

The AUD is looking good for a short to medium term move higher. It looks to be tracing out a reversal head and shoulders pattern. I would expect a small retracement to form the right shoulder before the currency attempts to break through the neckline. The typical pattern target is shown and any move through the $0.80 region will also invalidate the impulsive count to the downside and place the currency in a neutral position. Waiting for either a breakout through the neckline or a retracement into the right shoulder to make an entry. I would certainly not expect a new trend higher but a larger corrective wave (B) to form which should take the form of three larger waves.


----------



## Reealjrd

Thanks for the news on AUD. Seeing the graph the AUD position will be down for some time. But before it closes trades can see some buying pressure.

Happy Trading


----------



## CanOz

Another view of the reverse H&S pattern that could be forming on the AUD....in the beautiful Ichimoku chart on Amibroker and Pattern Explorer....a real work of art!

cheers,

CanOz


----------



## Aussiejeff

Lil' Au$$ie Bleeder back DOWN to $US 65.1c ... and slipping...

Will the RBA "intervene" again?

How deep are their pockets now?


----------



## noirua

Aussiejeff said:


> Lil' Au$$ie Bleeder back DOWN to $US 65.1c ... and slipping...
> 
> Will the RBA "intervene" again?
> 
> How deep are their pockets now?




The mood is so bad now for mining economies the target looks like $US55c to $US60c. Foreigners seem to be reducing anything risky in Aus.  If the RBA intervenes then they are fools, the speculators are on this one.


----------



## jeflin

US dollar continue to strengthens and commodities are down. The next 3-6 months will be crucial for the commodities market and the AUD.


----------



## CanOz

On alert for a trade here on the AUDUSD, short. Waiting for a close under the signal bar, a Tenkan Sen/Kijun Sen cross. If it triggers an entry i'll post the whole trade.

Cheers,


CanOz
Incidently there is a similar trade setup pending on the AUDJPY, lots of correlation with the two pairs, obviously.


----------



## CanOz

Well with alot of patient waiting we finally got our close below the signal bar and got stopped in to the AUD a short late last night. Still in the trade and managing it with only the stop loss now. Keeping it pretty tight since the S&P has bottomed again. Will use the Ichimoku KS line as my stop for now, Blue.

Cheers,


CanOz


----------



## Aussiejeff

CanOz said:


> Well with alot of patient waiting we finally got our close below the signal bar and got stopped in to the AUD a short late last night. Still in the trade and managing it with only the stop loss now. Keeping it pretty tight since the S&P has bottomed again. Will use the Ichimoku KS line as my stop for now, Blue.
> 
> Cheers,
> 
> 
> CanOz




Well, I predict the RBA will crank up the ol' funny-money press again and bailout big-time today in response. They have set a precedent in recent days - a precedent that they now have to live up to - and by Jove, they will!

"Ahhhh! The smell of fresh BananaBucks in the morning!" :bananasmi

aj


----------



## noirua

US$0.638 to A$1 and looking weak. Comments on interest rate cuts and oil tanking have set the trend.


----------



## IFocus

CanOz said:


> Well with alot of patient waiting we finally got our close below the signal bar and got stopped in to the AUD a short late last night. Still in the trade and managing it with only the stop loss now. Keeping it pretty tight since the S&P has bottomed again. Will use the Ichimoku KS line as my stop for now, Blue.
> 
> Cheers,
> 
> 
> CanOz




Nice work Can


----------



## CanOz

Just a follow up on this mornings trade, stopped out just after i got to work for a few pips. Interesting that the two pairs are so correlated, yet the JPY pair faired much better, was that the intervention?

Cheers,


CanOz


----------



## BentRod

Extremely tight range on AUD/USD so far today.

Looks like the average might get filled during the USA session.


----------



## Whiskers

Looks like a little break up off an inverted H&S on the 15 min... if true, should see abt .648


----------



## Whiskers

Whiskers said:


> Looks like a little break up off an inverted H&S on the 15 min... if true, should see abt .648




.6493... that's a good boy. 

Who caught it?


----------



## Wysiwyg

Whiskers said:


> .6493... that's a good boy.
> 
> Who caught it?




Nuff time to hit 70c again before 2nd Dec. RBA meeting you see Whisk.

This site has a forecast of 50 basis point cut.

http://www.global-view.com/forex-trading-tools/rates/auratesa.html


----------



## CanOz

Got stopped out everything on the retest tonight. S&P 500 into a nice rally atm.

Could this be the new bottom?

CanOz


----------



## Aussiejeff

Rocket up over 66c now. No doubt about it - the RBA must have been on the fiddle again. They have got the taste for a bit of a gamble now - hooked on the BananaBuck$ jig.  :bananasmi  :bananasmi


----------



## CanOz

Aussiejeff said:


> Rocket up over 66c now. No doubt about it - the RBA must have been on the fiddle again. They have got the taste for a bit of a gamble now - hooked on the BananaBuck$ jig.  :bananasmi  :bananasmi




More like a hunger for risk has just returned.

CanOz


----------



## Aussiejeff

CanOz said:


> More like a hunger for risk has just returned.
> 
> CanOz




Then literally you are also implying that the RBA (who is hungrily buying up BananaBuck$) is taking more risk with our hard earned?


----------



## Pairs Trader

trend reversals usually happen in periods of high volatility, the AUD has been whipping between 60-70c lately, I would say low 60's are a good entry, 1st target 70c, 2nd 75c and finally 80c, alongside a equity/commodity rally over the next 6 months.


----------



## CanOz

Great post Pairs. With that note, i'll post my first EOD FX trade. I'm going to have a go at the H&S Pattern here. You can see my entry with the little triangle, my initial stop loss with the red line, and my target with the green line.

Lets see if i can hang on that long!

Cheers,


CanOz


----------



## CanOz

Aussiejeff said:


> Then literally you are also implying that the RBA (who is hungrily buying up BananaBuck$) is taking more risk with our hard earned?




Actually no, i was thinking about the carry trade.

But whatever!

Cheers,

CanOz


----------



## Aussiejeff

Is this the future for the Lil' Ozzie BananaBuck? Will the Unca$amDog go the same way once the printing presses hit Warp Factor 10, Dr Sulu? 

http://www.boncherry.com/blog/2008/10/26/global-crisis-this-is-the-real-crisis/

Funny to see the effect of GuvMint intervention in the infaltionary process. Useless!


----------



## arco

.
I went in long off the H1 Kumo which gave a max potential overnight of *+76* pips. However my stop at *+20* got hit this morning.

The action is under thee Kumo on all TFs which could lead to further bearish moves unless the Kumo can be broken south.

Good weekend all -arco


----------



## Indie

Pairs Trader said:


> trend reversals usually happen in periods of high volatility, the AUD has been whipping between 60-70c lately, I would say low 60's are a good entry, 1st target 70c, 2nd 75c and finally 80c, alongside a equity/commodity rally over the next 6 months.




She's going to have to rally through a whole heap of terrible news over the next six months. Commodities will get smashed as the China domino falls.


----------



## CanOz

arco said:


> .
> I went in long off the H1 Kumo which gave a max potential overnight of *+76* pips. However my stop at *+20* got hit this morning.
> 
> The action is under thee Kumo on all TFs which could lead to further bearish moves unless the Kumo can be broken south.
> 
> Good weekend all -arco




Yeah, i didn't take the Ichimoku signal last night as the strength in the S&P's move wasn't too convincing so i was waiting for another bar for confirmation. I felt relieved at that. I took a small profit on my long term postion at 4:45 in the morning as i won't hold over the weekend. I was pleasantly surprised to see that the market dropped even more after i went back to bed, allowing for a better (read larger) position on Monday morning! Great stuff.

Cheers,


CanOz


----------



## CanOz

Indie said:


> She's going to have to rally through a whole heap of terrible news over the next six months. Commodities will get smashed as the China domino falls.




IMO most of the demand destruction is already priced into Commodities and most should actually rally if the USD slips off its recent perch. The rally may not be long lived though.

Cheers,


CanOz


----------



## >Apocalypto<

AUD WEEKLY..........

well it's in a clear bear market in both technicals and fundamentals. IMO

in fib regards the 61 is out but and closed below. PA still moving around it, so in the medium term who here supports the idea of a minor rally? 70-75?

do markets have major technical rallies? 

just throwing up so ideas to ponder.........

cheers


----------



## Aussiejeff

Oh dear....

60.9c

I'm sure I just heard the Lil' Ozzie Bleeder wailing and sobbing as it ran down the street ...

[size=+2]"RBA, RBA!!! _Wherefore art thou, RBA!!!_"[/size]

Poor lil' sod.


----------



## mayk

At 60 the RBA manipulation or PPT will kick in, like last time? 
Or will it be different this time?


----------



## CanOz

Everything depends on the S&P really. If we don't get a rally in the US and risk aversion continues to this degree, 55 cents is a real possibility.

Look out below.

CanOz


----------



## Temjin

*Big Sign* There goes my trip back to Hong Kong. It's almost 40% less cash to spend! And inflation in HK is rampaging too with prices of everything are up and stayed the same despite lower input costs since the commodities correction. Going to have to put off my netbook purchase until AUD is back up again.


----------



## Aussiejeff

Temjin said:


> *Big Sign* There goes my trip back to Hong Kong. It's almost 40% less cash to spend! And inflation in HK is rampaging too with prices of everything are up and stayed the same despite lower input costs since the commodities correction. Going to have to put off my netbook purchase until AUD is back up again.




Book your ticket(s).

The Mighty RBA has spent up big this morning already in a show of Great Aussie Fortitude And Resilience (sic) *coff*. 

It appears with Big Bro RBA's first aid, the Lil' Ozzie Bleeder has stopped bawling now and is sitting on the kerb, snuffling, covered in band-aids (at least untill those nasty bully-boys from the other side of the World start bashing it again!  )   

Have a nice flight....



aj


----------



## noirua

Temjin said:


> *Big Sign* There goes my trip back to Hong Kong. It's almost 40% less cash to spend! And inflation in HK is rampaging too with prices of everything are up and stayed the same despite lower input costs since the commodities correction. Going to have to put off my netbook purchase until AUD is back up again.



Why not spend your money in Aus instead of giving most of it to Hong Kong.


----------



## Indie

CanOz said:


> Everything depends on the S&P really. If we don't get a rally in the US and risk aversion continues to this degree, 55 cents is a real possibility.
> 
> Look out below.
> 
> CanOz




Have to agree with you on that CanOZ. Continued weakness in US equities will see more downward pressure on the AUD as carries continue to unwind. We would already be at 55 if it wasn't for RBA intervention. They spent over $3b in October alone according to The Age today. I'm still short. I can't see the S&P staying above 500 for too much longer.


----------



## kitehigh

The RBA honestly thinks the average punter is a complete mug!

"Yes, we provided liquidity as on previous occassions,'' an RBA spokesman said. "We don't disclose when, nor do we disclose the level.''

"Each time, the RBA said it was not defending a key level, telling the media it was adding liquidity to the currency market."

They continue to persist with this line of providing liquidity, when everyone knows they are just blatantly trying to manipulate the market.  I hope they get crammed tonight by the traders on the otherside.


----------



## agro

when can we expect the AUD$ to go up to around 70-90cents again

i got some stuff to buy from america


----------



## >Apocalypto<

agro said:


> when can we expect the AUD$ to go up to around 70-90cents again
> 
> i got some stuff to buy from america




You're going to waiting a long time for that to happen.

70 cents could happen.

90 o boy a very long time...........

Cheers


----------



## noirua

"Aussie Dollar to hit 47 cents: bank", http://www.compareshares.com.au/show_news.php?id=S-532909


----------



## BentRod

Skip is having a nice little run into the Euro session.

Long from 65.52 and just got pinged at BE on a second one.

Be nice to trade AUDJPY instead but I can't as I still have a longer term short on


----------



## BentRod

Nice bounce off the top border on the 4hr chart.

Wonder if we will test those lows now?

That intervention in the 60's almost gaurantees a retest IMO.


----------



## Wysiwyg

Nice spotting, looks like a great set up for a decent descent and break-down through the triangle.A break soon it would seem.


----------



## Naked shorts

BentRod said:


> Be nice to trade AUDJPY instead but I can't as I still have a longer term short on




Dont you think all the carry trades are already unwound? The recession in japan doesnt worry you either?


----------



## BentRod

Naked shorts said:


> Dont you think all the carry trades are already unwound? The recession in japan doesnt worry you either?




No idea about all that fundamental crap, I just go by the charts.

I'm still waiting for a touch on the bottom of the channel on the monthly chart.







https://www.aussiestockforums.com/forums/showpost.php?p=351386&postcount=204

In hindsight I should have closed it out earlier but given the way AUDJPY has mirrored equities I thought may aswell leave it on.


----------



## Wysiwyg

At present the upper trend line of the triangle is being rubbed and may even attempt to break through it!

A breakout out of a bullish pennant formation maybe the near term scenario.


----------



## Wysiwyg

I`m a half mast fan so in my books a target of .6800 to .6820 is statistically possible in this move.

Always a risk of stepping in dog doo doo posting targets but what the heck, one can either be right or wrong.


----------



## Wysiwyg

Swinging to the 5 minute chart shows a common head & shoulders formation with the neckline broken.

Trouble is it wasn`t broken with any real conviction.The tribe presently deliberating or "building a cause".


----------



## Indie

I'm still shorting, stock market looks like it's readying for another brutal leg down, the AUD will follow it IMO.


----------



## arco

*THE Australian stockmarket has fallen after the $US14 billion ($A20.84 billion) emergency bailout for United States automakers collapsed in its Senate.*

The already jittery All Ordinaries index accelerated downwards after news the deal was scuppered by union wage issues to be down 3 per cent to 3435.

The benchmark S&P/ASX200 also fell 3 per cent.

The United Auto Workers refused to accede to Republican demands for swift wage cuts.

Senate Majority Leader Harry Reid said he was "terribly disappointed" about the demise of an emerging bipartisan deal to rescue Detroit's Big Three automakers.

He spoke shortly after Republicans left a closed-door meeting where they balked at giving the automakers federal aid unless their powerful union agreed to slash wages next year to bring them into line with those of Japanese carmakers.

Republican Sen. George V. Voinovich of Ohio, a strong bailout supporter, said the union was willing to make the cuts - but not until 2011.

Reid was working to set a swift test vote on the measure Thursday night, but it was just a formality.
The bill was virtually certain to fail to reach the 60-vote threshold it would need to clear to advance.

Reid called the bill's collapse "a loss for the country," adding "I dread looking at Wall Street tomorrow. It's not going to be a pleasant sight." 

http://www.news.com.au/couriermail/story/0,23739,24789826-953,00.html


----------



## 1080p

If US Retail sales are worse than expected overnight as well as the failed auto bailout we probably will see some flight from the AUD again.


----------



## BentRod

1080p said:


> If US Retail sales are worse than expected overnight as well as the failed auto bailout we probably will see some flight from the AUD again.




I wouldn't count on that.

Last Friday we rallied on the worst job loss figures since 1974.


----------



## Wysiwyg

There we go, a bit more conviction that time.


----------



## Naked shorts

Indie said:


> I'm still shorting, stock market looks like it's readying for another brutal leg down, the AUD will follow it IMO.




Good call, I hope you followed through with this


----------



## Indie

Naked shorts said:


> Good call, I hope you followed through with this




Yes. In and out with my new IB account. The faithful YEN rules again.


----------



## >Apocalypto<

Aussie and EUR cutting losses to the USD.....

come on Aussie battler I want to buy some usd tomorrow morning!

:band


----------



## Naked shorts

i wish the spot forex market was always open


----------



## tayser

lol would be nice eh.


----------



## Indie

I'm going in for some action against the Yen for something different.

AUD at 60.14
EURO at 122.08

Looks like a decent market rally for the next couple of days.


----------



## Indie

In and out for a small profit. Japanese govt thinking of abolishing capital gains tax on profits from foreign investments. Sound like they are trying to encourage repatriation of YEN. This is bullish.


----------



## Naked shorts

Indie said:


> In and out for a small profit. Japanese govt thinking of abolishing capital gains tax on profits from foreign investments. Sound like they are trying to encourage repatriation of YEN. This is bullish.




Yeah i was about to say it looks to be turning around, nice work on the long though


----------



## chops_a_must

Am I reading this correctly?

 Australian Dollar  	-15.78%  	01/01-10:28  	1.6363  	0.6112  	1441.70  	+196.87  	 updown  	+15.81%


----------



## Stormin_Norman

chops_a_must said:


> Am I reading this correctly?
> 
> Australian Dollar  	-15.78%  	01/01-10:28  	1.6363  	0.6112  	1441.70  	+196.87  	 updown  	+15.81%




i have it above 70.


----------



## BentRod

Above 70???

What platform?


----------



## Stormin_Norman

all of them.

70.54


----------



## wayneL

Yerp, I have > 70 too.

Futures @~70 also


----------



## BentRod

Thanks chaps, didn't think most brokers for Spot were even open yet because of all the bank holidays Today.

@wayne....which futures are open at this time?

cheers


----------



## wayneL

BentRod said:


> Thanks chaps, didn't think most brokers for Spot were even open yet because of all the bank holidays Today.
> 
> @wayne....which futures are open at this time?
> 
> cheers




That's last close Rod, but in line with fxspot


----------



## BentRod

No worries...thanks Wayne.


----------



## Stormin_Norman

skippy went for a long hop last night.


----------



## noirua

Would be interesting to know the plans for further interest rate reductions. Could see a sudden tanking of the AUD as decisions are made and probably suddenly.


----------



## Naked shorts

noirua said:


> Would be interesting to know the plans for further interest rate reductions. Could see a sudden tanking of the AUD as decisions are made and probably suddenly.




http://www.asx.com.au/sfe/targetratetracker.htm


----------



## Aussiejeff

noirua said:


> Would be interesting to know the plans for further interest rate reductions. Could see a sudden tanking of the AUD as decisions are made and probably suddenly.




AUD Dropped around 4c in the last few trading days.

$US .6775 atm

If 100BP interest cut goes ahead as expected, http://www.asx.com.au/sfe/targetratetracker.htm further downside for sure?

RBA will be back to doling out heaps to prop the lil' bugger! I see they had no bidders for their auction of Yank treasuries the other day, either.


----------



## Stormin_Norman

yeah, been doing quite well on the no brainer aussie trade.

we should see USD strength and AUD weakness continue on for the remainder of the week, we have job figures thursday which wont be crash hot, and we have 'the great saviour of america' obama coming in soon too - bound to cause a near term rally for the USD.

in this weather, keep ya shorts on i think.


----------



## Aussiejeff

Stormin_Norman said:


> yeah, been doing quite well on the no brainer aussie trade.
> 
> we should see USD strength and AUD weakness continue on for the remainder of the week, we have job figures thursday which wont be crash hot, and we have 'the great saviour of america' obama coming in soon too - bound to cause a near term rally for the USD.
> 
> *in this weather, keep ya shorts on i think.*




*PHEWWW*

It's HOT, DAMNED HOT!!


----------



## Naked shorts

Stormin_Norman said:


> keep ya shorts on i think.



That might be a bit hard for me to do...


----------



## noirua

Recent AUD weakness may be due to the dramatic fall in the mining and related sectors. Rio seems to have set a trend, "if they can do it every mining company must."
Accordingly foreigners are not certain whether equally dramatic action will be taken on interest rates or not. Is zero possible in 2009 or will there be only a gradual slide to 3% or so?
Will Rudd & Co go for a big cash giveaway or even consider, as the UK is being reported to be considering, just printing more currency?


----------



## Aussiejeff

noirua said:


> Will Rudd & Co go for a big cash giveaway or even consider, as the UK is being reported to be considering, *just printing more currency?*




Ah, yes! That old Zimbabwean trick. Should work. No deflation there....


----------



## sinner

Bah I had a beautiful short open last night at 67.085, when I went to bed it was up +39 pips! Set a small profit stop (+3 pips) and passed out. Woke up this morning to find myself stopped out during early US market action followed by market close this morning at 66.2!


----------



## Stormin_Norman

noirua said:


> Recent AUD weakness may be due to the dramatic fall in the mining and related sectors. Rio seems to have set a trend, "if they can do it every mining company must."
> Accordingly foreigners are not certain whether equally dramatic action will be taken on interest rates or not. Is zero possible in 2009 or will there be only a gradual slide to 3% or so?
> Will Rudd & Co go for a big cash giveaway or even consider, as the UK is being reported to be considering, just printing more currency?




the fall in mining and the fall in AUD was because of the same reasons. fall in commodities. the AUD moves largely with commodity prices.

its also falling because we have employment this week.

and many are expecting another interest rate cut in first week of feb to match those cuts in england and europe (US has nowhere to go - other then to pay money to people to get them to take loans).



sinner said:


> Bah I had a beautiful short open last night at 67.085, when I went to bed it was up +39 pips! Set a small profit stop (+3 pips) and passed out. Woke up this morning to find myself stopped out during early US market action followed by market close this morning at 66.2!




that happened to me monday morning! exactly the same thing! the initial 'wahoo!' is quickly replaced by cursing and desk hitting.


----------



## Lachlan6

The AUD is at an interesting juncture at the moment. Has it completed the larger correction already? Time wise it looks balanced but the currency has failed to reach the typical area for the corrective move. It has now retraced to within the typical area for the wave (B) so providing it doesn't slip too much further it may have one more go at the $0.80 - $0.85 region. I am waiting for a bullish candle to form for a buy set up. If this will not occur and it slips further then it may now fall away quickly. Still favouring the one last poke up at the $0.80 - $0.85 region before it falls over and declines again.


----------



## sinner

Stormin_Norman said:


> that happened to me monday morning! exactly the same thing! the initial 'wahoo!' is quickly replaced by cursing and desk hitting.




Bah humbug I say.

Just goes to show, if you are gonna leave the trade open intraday then you may as well keep your initial stop at a loss rather than trying to protect profit until major corrections are over or you can sit and monitor the trade.

I would normally sit and keep an eye out as I am fairly nocturnal but had a shift today at 7am!

Trying to re-enter now, doing badly


----------



## Stormin_Norman

what's going to drive the AUD back up to 80+ ?

the only thing i could see doing it is USD weakness. commodities dont look like theyre recovering just yet.


----------



## noirua

Stormin_Norman said:


> what's going to drive the AUD back up to 80+ ?
> 
> the only thing i could see doing it is USD weakness. commodities dont look like theyre recovering just yet.



I'm still going for 59c (1.69 reverse) as the trend is well set now. Speculators are on this one now and there is little hope in the first half of 2009, me thinks.


----------



## Indie

I think a very short term spike up to maybe .68 could happen in the next 24hrs, but then I the trend down continues. I see .59 before I see .80.

Equities are driving the dollar, so follow the market direction and you should do pretty well.

I've been short since the start of the year, so I'll stay short and look to add to my position once we get closer to .68.


----------



## Aussiejeff

AUD down to USD.6576 atm. No surprise with RBA informing the market today that it sold off AUS1.1 Billion over December! So now they will let it drift another few cents lower before jumping back in and buying up again, creating "demand" for the AUD again - take it up a few cents then dump it again.

Classic "pump 'n dump" strategy as favoured by crime syndicates?  If I tried that with a stock, I'd be in trouble with ASIC!

I'd better take my Cynical Pill. It's overdue....


aj


----------



## tims

Didn't think I should start a thread with a question this basic but can someone help?  
We have been planning a trip to the States for nearly a year now but with the Aussie dollar in freefall is there anyway I can lock in the Aus$/US$ at the current rate before it gets even lower (we are planning to go in July/August).
Someone told me it's possible to buy US$ from a broker that will be earning interest in a US bank account that we can access later but I don't really know how to go about this.
Anyone?

cheers

Tim


----------



## Stormin_Norman

u can make a trade now. which will effectively hedge any difference between now and your trip.

what you would make (or lose) on the trade would effectively equal what you would lose (or gain) in exchange rate changes between now and then.

ie u bet the AUD will lose value against the USD. if it does lose value youll profit on the trade.

those profits + your original AUD money = same USD as today.

and vice versa.


----------



## Cartman

Stormin_Norman said:


> u can make a trade now. which will effectively hedge any difference between now and your trip.
> 
> what you would make (or lose) on the trade would effectively equal what you would lose (or gain) in exchange rate changes between now and then.
> 
> ie u bet the AUD will lose value against the USD. if it does lose value youll profit on the trade.
> 
> those profits + your original AUD money = same USD as today.
> 
> and vice versa.





exactly Norm --- and u'll probably get a damn site better rate from a bucket shop than u'll get from yr local post office or airport !!!!


----------



## Page

For AUD I do not have any news.


----------



## Cartman

Page said:


> For AUD I do not have any news.





geez Page ---and we thought u were gona tell us the aussie had bottomed at 6550 and was all up hill from here  ---- lol 

im backing 6350 ish  but time will tell ---


----------



## Stormin_Norman

Page said:


> For AUD I do not have any news.





you win the thread.


----------



## Cartman

Stormin_Norman said:


> you win the thread.





     lol ---- was i AWOL at an important moment -----


----------



## Whiskers

Page said:


> For AUD I do not have any news.




Well, it's old news now... but on thursday I reckoned it was about to bottom  and took a little position to let run the course, which I was thinking should go to a new recent high.

Been trying to catch some of the swings with a bigger position.

Last week was my first week live trading after doing about a month on demo acc.

After hearing some 'economic' forecasts re the AUD while I was out I was keen to get home to have another look at the charts... but all's ok, it pretty much behaved as expected today.

But, I'm thinking I should move the stop up for this little lot, or alternatively dial in a take profit... but where too! What do you experts do?


----------



## Whiskers

Looking like a bit of a bottom.

Added a bit more to long at 6696, stop 6680... and going to sleep on it.


----------



## Monario

*Aussie Dollar!*

Hi All, I was wondering if anyone can tell me how the dollar is set against other currencies.

And if it is not obvious in the explanation, why the US dollar seems to have crept up so high against us again, and is continuing to move up against the Aussie.


----------



## mayk

*Re: Aussie Dollar!*



Monario said:


> Hi All, I was wondering if anyone can tell me how the dollar is set against other currencies.
> 
> And if it is not obvious in the explanation, why the US dollar seems to have crept up so high against us again, and is continuing to move up against the Aussie.




It would be better to post this question here:
https://www.aussiestockforums.com/forums/showthread.php?p=387532#post387532


----------



## Indie

Whiskers said:


> Looking like a bit of a bottom.
> 
> Added a bit more to long at 6696, stop 6680... and going to sleep on it.





Shorts are still a hold and longs for scalping imo. At least 75pb cut coming in Feb, and more to follow. Commodities bearish too. Fundamentals point down for the AUD, but if we see an Obama rally, equities could provide a short term spike up. I'm happy holding a short position.


----------



## Junior

tims said:


> Didn't think I should start a thread with a question this basic but can someone help?
> We have been planning a trip to the States for nearly a year now but with the Aussie dollar in freefall is there anyway I can lock in the Aus$/US$ at the current rate before it gets even lower (we are planning to go in July/August).
> Someone told me it's possible to buy US$ from a broker that will be earning interest in a US bank account that we can access later but I don't really know how to go about this.
> Anyone?
> 
> cheers
> 
> Tim




Another way to do this would be to pay as many expenses now as you can...i.e. accommodation, domestic flights, go to Travelex and buy some USD


----------



## noirua

Down to 64.57 (reverse A$1.548) a few minutes ago and looking weak.


----------



## BentRod

Whiskers said:


> Well, it's old news now... but on thursday I reckoned it was about to bottom  and took a little position to let run the course, which I was thinking should go to a new recent high.
> 
> Been trying to catch some of the swings with a bigger position.
> 
> Last week was my first week live trading after doing about a month on demo acc.
> 
> After hearing some 'economic' forecasts re the AUD while I was out I was keen to get home to have another look at the charts... but all's ok, it pretty much behaved as expected today.
> 
> But, I'm thinking I should move the stop up for this little lot, or alternatively dial in a take profit... but where too! What do you experts do?




What did you end up doing Whiskers?

Sounds like it was a swing trade?

Usually a trailing stop or a profit target for an exit works.


----------



## Whiskers

Ended up moving stop to a small profit and let it run... and stop out. 

I was trading the swings, but just got home from getting a damn cancer cut out of my leg when I added to it, but I was pretty tired and the anthestetic was starting to wear off so I had a couple of panidols and went to bed.

Starting to feel better now... been scalping a couple of swings this arvo.

Looks like it's close to or has just made the top of wave 2 of 5 of C... looking to go short very soon.


----------



## sinner

Whiskers said:


> Looks like it's close to or has just made the top of wave 2 of 5 of C... looking to go short very soon.




I took a similar trade based on the stochastic Whiskers, in at 0.66003, out at 0.654ish at +50pips when it hit the 100MA on the 30min chart and the stochastic bottomed. I get nervous shorting at the 0.65ish region because this is where the RBA likes to "hold the line"...

Nice trade for the night but I will chalk it up to managing losses after some other trades that went bad. Happy to hold the profit in USD as a risk free "short" if the AUD continues down it will look nicer in the morning 

Thankyou and goodnight.


----------



## Whiskers

Good one sinner.

I was in at .6609, but got stopped out exactly on my stop... Damit!

But there looks like another fairly significant abc coming up now... if I can catch it I should be right for a decent run.


----------



## Naked shorts

Whiskers said:


> I was in at .6609, but got stopped out exactly on my stop... Damit!




This same thing happened to me the other day. Price went hit, nipped my SL, then proceeded to tank


----------



## Stormin_Norman

you havent traded if you dont have a story like that.


----------



## Lachlan6

Looking at the AUDGBP, the move from Oct last year seems like one big correction and as a result the currency may look to impulse lower now. The sharp sell off from the 5th of Jan looks impulsive so I think it may be a case of watch out below. Also the wave 2 has come into the typical retracement area (50% - 61.8%) and today's sell off doesn't bode well. Slightly annoying being in London at the moment and using the Australian Peso!


----------



## kransky

when will the talk of the rba's next meeting and the rate cuts they will announce start? aud should start trending down for a while at least up till the cut day no? our rates cant stay where they are with what is going on in the global economy..


----------



## Indie

I lost some $$ trading the range in late December and really learnt my lesson the hard way. I'll just keep holding now until I see it break .60, and it surely will given the state of the markets and particularly commodities. S&P 750 should do it but that may take a while. Patience is the key. Have faith in the trend. Oil and gold need to come off a bit to get there I think.

The Yen is a monster atm, it's just demolishing everything. Also, I think Cable or Euro will get mauled to USD parity before the end of the year. That's a big call but these are historic times and we are seeing the beginnings of some momentous shifts in the world economy.


----------



## sinner

So what's the trade for tonight guys? Markets are trading in a pretty narrow range and aren't giving off any clear short term indicators, and this scares me a lot!

I'd rather do the dishes than try and play what I'm seeing today.


----------



## Whiskers

sinner said:


> So what's the trade for tonight guys? Markets are trading in a pretty narrow range and aren't giving off any clear short term indicators, and this scares me a lot!
> 
> I'd rather do the dishes than try and play what I'm seeing today.




I got 26 pips on the AUD/USD for my first of the day, out at 6425... after quite some time trying to figure it out and adjust my 'L' plate EW Count... but I'm thinking it might be at 3 on my hourly chart... due for another reversal.

Anyone got a different count?

PS: Not sure about 1 & 2... maybe should be a peak earlier... but either way it looks like 3 is up... I think.


----------



## Wysiwyg

Happy for you to be enjoying the trading Whiskers. 




---


----------



## Whiskers

Wysiwyg said:


> Happy for you to be enjoying the trading Whiskers.
> 
> 
> 
> 
> ---




Thanks Wysiwyg. 

Bludy hard work though to try to get it right.

I don't think I'd last too long at it for a regular day job though. It seems to suck up so much time trying to work it out or when I'm on the sniff with an itchy trigger finger for a good entry point.


----------



## Whiskers

Well, the reversal (AUDUSD) has ventured a bit further than I was thinking... so not sure about my EW count... maybe a diagonal triangle and short leg 5, or it's just making (2) now.

Into .67 territory and I'm thinking it's pretty close to going south again. Looking to re-enter for a decent run.


----------



## sinner

Whiskers said:


> Into .67 territory and I'm thinking it's pretty close to going south again. Looking to re-enter for a decent run.




Whiskers, hope you were on this!!! 

Not sure if I have gone crazy to long anything but gold in this climate but I diverted my remaining trading capital to go long some energy stocks I like so have just been watching from the sidelines since Australia Day.

My paper trade indicates a high probability of someone being very happy if they were short from 0.67 to now at 0.638! The NYSE hasn't even opened to drive it lower still.


----------



## Whiskers

Sure am Sinner. Didn't let it run loose this time. Kept my trailing stop a bit too close though and had to re-enter a few times.

Looking for a bit of a bottom and minoir wave 2 reversal shortly. Got my sell at 6345... then look for a buy entry again.


----------



## noirua

With a rate tumble due next week the AUD may be set to tank sharply. 59c seems reasonable in the present climate as the AUD becomes the worlds third  weakest currency. Leaving out the Zimbabwe Dollar that has now been declared defunct by their Government and poor old Iceland. Yes, only beating the dreadful Kiwi$ and UK pound.


----------



## Aussiejeff

noirua said:


> With a rate tumble due next week the AUD may be set to tank sharply. 59c seems reasonable in the present climate as the AUD becomes the worlds third  weakest currency. Leaving out the Zimbabwe Dollar that has now been declared defunct by their Government and poor old Iceland. Yes, only beating the dreadful Kiwi$ and UK pound.




So, when a country's currency is deceased, what then?


----------



## Stormin_Norman

short on the aussie is a bit of a no-brainer atm. interest rate cuts and the strength of the usd because of bond buyers will see it into the 50s next week i think.

not that its a bad thing. a lower dollar will help us and the world in the current climate. reducing the costs of commodities for manufacturing countries is an important part of the world's recovery and will help our exporters retain their markets with the shrinking world demand.


----------



## noirua

Aussiejeff said:


> So, when a country's currency is deceased, what then?



Then it's a free for all and people could pay in mixed foreign currencies.  I did stay at a border hotel that took French and Belgian Franks, and German Marks. Even paying with a mixture of all three.


----------



## Aussiejeff

noirua said:


> Then it's a free for all and people could pay in mixed foreign currencies.  I did stay at a border hotel that took French and Belgian Franks, and German Marks. Even paying with a mixture of all three.




So, what currency are Zimbabweans paid in? A mixture?


----------



## Aussiejeff

Stormin_Norman said:


> short on the aussie is a bit of a no-brainer atm. interest rate cuts and the strength of the usd because of bond buyers will see it into the 50s next week i think.
> 
> not that its a bad thing. *a lower dollar will help us and the world in the current climate*. reducing the costs of commodities for manufacturing countries is an important part of the world's recovery and will help our exporters retain their markets with the shrinking world demand.




However, there is ALWAYS a significant downside, whether the move is up OR down. What about the price of unleaded & diesel? It's already shot up when AUD was nearer 70c, let alone the 50's? I wonder what price if/when AUD hits mid 50c's? Much higher fuel prices right now or in the coming months can't possibly be a "good thing", can it?



aj


----------



## Stormin_Norman

its a by-product of our cheaper currency. imported things cost more, exported things become cheaper.

if its a choice between jobs and 20 cents of petrol price, jobs will win every day.


----------



## Underpants Gnome

Aussiejeff said:


> So, what currency are Zimbabweans paid in? A mixture?




With unemployment at 94% I'd say the overwhelming majority are not paid in any currency at all


----------



## noirua

Trading at the moment at 63.6 cents and interesting to see what happens this week. Drop of 3/4% or 1% in interest rates favoured, will they go for 1 1/4%.


----------



## Whiskers

noirua said:


> Trading at the moment at 63.6 cents and interesting to see what happens this week. Drop of 3/4% or 1% in interest rates favoured, will they go for 1 1/4%.




Yeah, going to be interesting... but I have a feeling it may not go much lower for now... on the five min chart I'm actually looking at going long any time for what I think may be a short and sharpish wave 4, since we hit 6340 this morning to make my leg 3 longer than 1.


----------



## Stormin_Norman

i look at that and see a strong downside resistance which if broken could see the AUD have quite a fall.


----------



## Whiskers

Yes, I woud agree with that norman... has actually broken below slightly... but waiting to see if it's a false break.

If I recall my EW correctly if C is steeper than A, there's a good chance of C extending. Conversely, my EW count has the C leg turning out to be much flatter than the A leg... lessening the chance of an extension... maybe.


----------



## noirua

Now down to 62.78 cents and hopefully this continuing steady drift will prove helpful.


----------



## Stormin_Norman

noirua said:


> Now down to 62.78 cents and hopefully this continuing steady drift will prove helpful.




very much so. for my positions as well as our, and the world's economy.


----------



## noirua

Stormin_Norman said:


> very much so. for my positions as well as our, and the world's economy.



Yep!  Banking on a big interest rate reduction and 59c should come up quite quickly.  Whether this would show a definite double bottom on the chart or not is a bit unclear.


----------



## noirua

The AUD is slipping very gradually with occasional misleading rallies before the downward trend continues.  Now at 0.64068 (reverse 1.5608) to the greenback.


----------



## noirua

The AUD stands firm at very low levels or is it standing on a ledge ready to drop further, suddenly? Demand for the Aussie looks set to come under pressure as coal prices move down and pricing agreements at higher levels run out on 31st March 2009.
AU$0.64662 to the US$1.


----------



## i_in

hi, I`m new here in this forum

I think if the daily bar close above 0.6520 it next target is round about 0.7170


----------



## Stormin_Norman

welcome i_in.


----------



## solomon

Is it true that trading in AUD/GBP and AUD/USD has been on very thin volumes in the last few days?

I don't follow currencies so would appreciate a better informed perspective.


----------



## Whiskers

noirua said:


> The AUD is slipping very gradually with occasional misleading rallies before the downward trend continues.  Now at 0.64068 (reverse 1.5608) to the greenback.




Hi noirua... why do you think they are misleading rallies?



i_in said:


> hi, I`m new here in this forum
> 
> I think if the daily bar close above 0.6520 it next target is round about 0.7170




Yeah, welcome i-in.

You and me both got the recent peak pretty right... just crashed to sub 65 as I type... probably wave iii of c. 

Misleading 'rally'  coming up soon noirua ... wave iv before bottoming out to launch north again.



solomon said:


> Is it true that trading in AUD/GBP and AUD/USD has been on very thin volumes in the last few days?
> 
> I don't follow currencies so would appreciate a better informed perspective.




Don't take any notice of volumes solomon, but are you worried the AUD is weak?


----------



## i_in

thanks for the welcome

0.6550 is strong resistance 
expecting zigzagging above/bellow the line 
hope so , it needs to hit 2468 first to verify my bulish scenario 
don`t know , only guessing 
the next is 6850-6860


----------



## noirua

Whiskers said:


> Hi noirua... why do you think they are misleading rallies?
> 
> 
> 
> Yeah, welcome i-in.
> 
> You and me both got the recent peak pretty right... just crashed to sub 65 as I type... probably wave iii of c.
> 
> Misleading 'rally'  coming up soon noirua ... wave iv before bottoming out to launch north again.
> 
> 
> 
> Don't take any notice of volumes solomon, but are you worried the AUD is weak?



Apologies for not replying earlier Whiskers. I think, that the AUD, roughly speaking, is just batting around casually and will move to 59c, imho.
However, you will notice from this link that Morgan Stanley is going for 53c:  http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601081&refer=australia&sid=af49bMV6u4EE


----------



## waz

This thread has been very quiet the last few days.
With the AU now above 66c, do people still think it will fall below 60c?

They way I see it, even if equity markets were to fall down another leg. Gold will go up, oil will unlikely go below $35 and commodities including agriculture will probably hold ground.


----------



## Stormin_Norman

also depends on if the reserve bank cuts rates.


----------



## BentRod

> With the AU now above 66c, do people still think it will fall below 60c?




By saying it wont you are effectively calling a bottom in the AUDUSD.

Do you really want to call a bottom


Personally I think the safer bet for is for continued downside, especially since the RBA intervened at 62.50. 

If you have a look back you will see on most occasions Central bank intervention levels (on all currencies) have been breached not long after.


----------



## Aussiejeff

BentRod said:


> By saying it wont you are effectively calling a bottom in the AUDUSD.
> 
> Do you really want to call a bottom
> 
> 
> *Personally I think the safer bet for is for continued downside*, especially since the RBA intervened at 62.50.
> 
> If you have a look back you will see on most occasions Central bank intervention levels (on all currencies) have been breached not long after.




Hmmm. Care to review that?

If the AUD continues it's relentless soaring towards USD parity, what then for Oz exporters?


----------



## AbundantIncome

Aussiejeff said:


> Hmmm. Care to review that?
> 
> If the AUD continues it's relentless soaring towards USD parity, what then for Oz exporters?




not quite sure if all this up is really sustainable !!! anybody has charts to share ?


----------



## SoBadAtTrading

A 30% rise since it's trough, i think it could run out of steam soon and trade within a band 75-78c.


----------



## Average Joe

I reckon we're going to test .84


----------



## lasty

Average Joe,

The USD is weak.
There arent many on this move and are saying its got to retrace.
Not a good sign as market not bullish yet however dont rule out whipsaws.

I suggest you take a look at the Kiwi chart.
Apparently, and I dont follow charts, there is a massive head and shoulders in the 61 zone which if breach could race to the 70 cents level.

The Oz will no doubt follow... 

Tread carefully...Its going to be fun n games time soon.


----------



## Average Joe

Thanks lasty. 
The kiwi broke above .61 today.
0.78 is apparently an important resistance level for the aussie.


----------



## AbundantIncome

lasty said:


> Average Joe,
> 
> The USD is weak.
> There arent many on this move and are saying its got to retrace.
> Not a good sign as market not bullish yet however dont rule out whipsaws.
> 
> I suggest you take a look at the Kiwi chart.
> Apparently, and I dont follow charts, there is a massive head and shoulders in the 61 zone which if breach could race to the 70 cents level.
> 
> The Oz will no doubt follow...
> 
> Tread carefully...Its going to be fun n games time soon.




market is kinda nervous it seems or it is me who is too nervous to get back into the market ?


----------



## Stormin_Norman

call me crazy, but im on a short at 80 cents.


----------



## Cartman

Stormin_Norman said:


> call me crazy, but im on a short at 80 cents.





thats a very aggressive entry Norm (reminds me of the guy who keeps looking at me in my bathroom mirror   lol ) ----  
bit different to your regular system entry yes?  u scaling into it or just punting on friday being a spikey top? --- 

good luck with it


----------



## Stormin_Norman

big rally, bad figures this week, nice round number + good risk/return.

sold at 7994
SL at 8050
target 7500 or there or there abouts.

a fundamental trade. no indicators at all.


----------



## CanOz

Stormin_Norman said:


> big rally, bad figures this week, nice round number + good risk/return.
> 
> sold at 7994
> SL at 8050
> target 7500 or there or there abouts.
> 
> a fundamental trade. no indicators at all.




Hows this working for you Norman?

CanOz


----------



## CFD

I guess he got stopped out. Could be a good trade placed a day too early.

A "a fundamental trade. no indicators at all" makes the timing a bit tricky.


----------



## AbundantIncome

is this going down from now on or what ???

has rally topped ????

share please .. great I got my stop loss in place !!! i have lost lots in the past due to holding on/being stubborn ....

the chart is confusing atm, not sure where to go in, up or down ???


----------



## white_goodman

AbundantIncome said:


> is this going down from now on or what ???
> 
> has rally topped ????
> 
> share please .. great I got my stop loss in place !!! i have lost lots in the past due to holding on/being stubborn ....
> 
> the chart is confusing atm, not sure where to go in, up or down ???




taking no position is also a position


----------



## Stormin_Norman

i got my fingers burnt for a 56 pip loss earlier.


----------



## AbundantIncome

anybody got the ride last night ??? wish I had the profit position held longer !!! was too tired went sleep earlier ...


----------



## bunyip

I look through the Forex threads on this forum and time and again I see complex analysis and speculation about what a currency is likely to do and why it's likely to do it.
Unnecessary in my opinion.....better to look at what a currency pair is doing _*right now*_, then position yourself to take advantage of it while it lasts.

Looking back to the very first post on this thread on 21/3/07, one of the guys was short even though the chart showed a raging uptrend. When his short view was proven wrong he pronounced the Aussie 'now untradable'.
In the posts that followed there was much discussion and speculation about the future direction of AUDUSD based on various fundamental views.

I couldn't care less about the fundamentals - I'm only interested in what the chart tells me.
For my money, the chart was bullish on 21/3/07 and that was about all that mattered. 
Once the chart is decisively trending, look for one or two simple entry setups and take a position in the direction of the trend.
Get out with a small loss if it goes against you, hang in there for big gains if it goes the right way. Not too difficult really. 

Regarding the current AUDUSD price action.....a PPS triangle formed on the daily chart in April. 
Anyone who got in from the breakout of the triangle at the end of April and simply rode the trend is up almost 1000 pips so far, plus any pyramiding they did along the way.


----------



## Muschu

This is not for me - too risky - but what and where is the code for trading the AUD please?


----------



## keegan

this is the best time to accumulate position/s keep on buying


----------



## CFD

There are dangers in telling peeps to accumulate long positions when the currency is trending in the opposite direction.


----------



## keegan

how low the aud/usd can go 0.7000?


----------



## Wysiwyg

keegan said:


> how low the aud/usd can go 0.7000?



Your guess is as good as anyones. :iamwithst :iagree:


----------



## OldFart

AUD/CAD going crazy right now.


----------



## OldFart

AUD/CAD

heading for the high from november of last year..amazing


----------



## damien275x

If I believe the dollar will fall again, can I purchase US dollars, then purchase Australian dollars with my US when it does? Where can I go to trade currency, thanks


----------



## Boggo

damien275x said:


> If I believe the dollar will fall again,




You got that one right damien, this is the 15 minute live chart.

(click to expand)


----------



## prawn_86

So whats members thoughts on the impact on the economy of the impending parity against the USD.

eprsonally its no good for me, if we go over parity, in theory more people will import directly and have less need for our clients (wholesalers etc) meaning they wont need to purchase as much


----------



## explod

prawn_86 said:


> So whats members thoughts on the impact on the economy of the impending parity against the USD.
> 
> eprsonally its no good for me, if we go over parity, in theory more people will import directly and have less need for our clients (wholesalers etc) meaning they wont need to purchase as much




International fences will go up which will spell very big trouble, not just financial I feel.  China thinking of it now, except they hold too many US treasuries.  Bet that they are one of the big gold buyers behind the scenes.

Aussie just hit .9905, thats 1.3% in a day.  What goes when the RBA do put rates up??


----------



## Boggo

Amazing stuff really, two chances to get on and I missed both.

(click to expand)


----------



## zzaaxxss3401

Interesting article in The Age today:
http://www.theage.com.au/business/will-the-rba-step-in-to-douse-the-dollar-20110421-1dq44.html

When the dollar was racing along between US70c and US90c in 2010 the RBA pretty much suggested that there was nothing they could do to control the price. There is simply so much money being traded in one day that it exceeds our total foreign reserves.

It's not that the RBA won't intervene - it's because they can't.

However, if the AUD keeps rising the way it is (because the US economy is so terrible) eventually things should slow down... when exports, tourism and petrol prices kill us... if they haven't already.

Farmers are already in trouble, due to the droughts, now floods, locusts and rise in petrol / diesel. With the AUD so strong, they're getting less for their exports - milk, milk products, meat even though prices are up in general. The same goes for our other exports - coal, LNG, iron ore.

Tourism is also struggling, due to the lower number of overseas visitors, floods everywhere and cyclones in North Queensland.

And finally, with the increase in petrol from around $1.20 to now $1.50 - a 25% increase in a large expense for freight companies - it's going to affect food prices and the cost of living in general.

The only way the RBA can affect the AUDUSD rate, is by dropping interest rates. If that happens though, retirees and savers suffer (lower annual income from interest bearing investments) and households are going to start piling on more debt while the rates are low.

So basically... in a few words... we're doomed and it's a disaster waiting to happen.

Just on that petrol price... that's one thing that's been bugging me:
July 2008 - AUDUSD $0.97, WTI (per barrel) $147, Petrol $1.70
April 2011 - AUDUSD $1.07, WTI (per barrel) $112, Petrol $1.50
The AUDUSD is 10% stronger. WTI is 24% cheaper. Based on these figures, petrol should be around $1.17.

But hangon, Australia imports 20% of it's petrol from Singapore, and the ACCC suggests that it uses the Singapore petrol price as it's benchmark:
July 2008 - AUDSGD $1.30, Singapore Petrol $1.80, Australia Petrol $1.70
April 2011 - AUDSGD $1.30, Singapore Petrol $2.07, Australia Petrol $1.50
The AUDSGD is the same. Singapore Petrol has increased by 15%. So based on these figures, petrol should be around $1.95.

This suggests that the ACCC won't be doing anything until our petrol prices rocket up to $2.00 overnight.


----------



## tothemax6

zzaaxxss3401 said:


> When the dollar was racing along between US70c and US90c in 2010 the RBA pretty much suggested that there was nothing they could do to control the price. There is simply so much money being traded in one day that it exceeds our total foreign reserves.
> It's not that the RBA won't intervene - it's because they can't.



Actually, yes they can. To drop the value of the AUD the RBA (which is the creator of AUDs) simply sells AUD in the forex market. The RBA can create an unlimited supply of AUDs. Indeed, the RBA web site clearly states that this is one of their policy options.


zzaaxxss3401 said:


> So basically... in a few words... we're doomed and it's a disaster waiting to happen.



Not in the slightest though - Australia will only be 'doomed' when the Chinese construction bubble bursts. A high AUD is good - Australians can afford better holidays, cheaper computers, cheaper phones, pretty much cheaper everything that we do not make ourselves. I hope the AUD goes to $1.50.


----------



## Plumber1

tothemax6 said:


> Australia will only be 'doomed' when the Chinese construction bubble bursts. A high AUD is good - Australians can afford better holidays, cheaper computers, cheaper phones, pretty much cheaper everything that we do not make ourselves. I hope the AUD goes to $1.50.




If AUD goes to $1.50, every manufacturer in Australia who exports their products will be bankrupted due to lack of sales to overseas customers. Even those who don't export will be priced out by foreign imports.   And once our manufacturing industries are gone, they will NEVER come back. 

This is what has happened to the whole Western world with all manufacturing being off-shored to China. The reason the Western world is in so much trouble is because the world trade balances are not in balance. China has $3 Trillion in surpluses and the Western world is hopelessly in debt. The Western world has floating exchange rates but China has a fixed exchange rate which is being kept artificially low. By using an artificially low exchange rate, the manufacturing industries of the Western world have been gutted and then sent offshore to China. 

Foe what it is worth, I hope the AUD goes back to its normalised, long term trend price of around 80c


----------



## zzaaxxss3401

tothemax6 said:


> Actually, yes they can. To drop the value of the AUD the RBA (which is the creator of AUDs) simply sells AUD in the forex market. The RBA can create an unlimited supply of AUDs. Indeed, the RBA web site clearly states that this is one of their policy options.



I could see at least two issues with this.
1) To affect the AUDUSD exchange rate, they (and everyone else) would need to be buying USDs. How many billions of AUDs do you think the RBA would need to buy in order to affect the exchange rate? Then we hold USDs... now what? Do you really think the US economy is going to turn around overnight and what interest rate will we be getting for holding USDs? Zero perhaps?

2) If you're suggesting printing money (since they are the creator of AUDs), this would cause inflation to sky rocket within Australia. Petrol would go through the roof, house prices would keep rising and wages would have to increase to keep up. Not good. Interest rates would need to be hiked in order to slow down the spending on cheap imports. Do you really want to head back to the 80's with 17-18% interest rates? The stock market would crash because why risk money on shares, when you can get 15% putting it in the bank. The economy collapses because companies are now worthless and they can't raise money from shareholders (if there are any).



tothemax6 said:


> A high AUD is good - Australians can afford better holidays, cheaper computers, cheaper phones, pretty much cheaper everything that we do not make ourselves. I hope the AUD goes to $1.50.



Oh dear. As I said in my first post, exporters and tourism are already struggling. Where do you think your food comes from - dairy products, cereals, vegetables, meat? Do you think the farmers across Australia are all planning holidays while the AUDUSD is strong?

Perhaps your wish of $1.50, is exactly why the Government should have a Resources Tax - to even the playing field across the whole of Australia. Why should the Mining companies continue to make a 59% profit, while the rest of the country goes out of business. http://www.theage.com.au/business/p...but-a-mining-tax-is-vital-20110422-1drg1.html

Here's a thought though... If you were the only supplier of "cheaper phones" and "cheaper computers" and cars and steel and plastics in the world (aka China), wouldn't you hike the price for Australia to increase your profits and see what people are prepared to pay? Afterall you do have the monopoly and no one else can afford to compete because inflation has pushed wages and factory costs too high here in Australia.


----------



## tothemax6

Plumber1 said:


> If AUD goes to $1.50, every manufacturer in Australia who exports their products will be bankrupted due to lack of sales to overseas customers. Even those who don't export will be priced out by foreign imports.   And once our manufacturing industries are gone, they will NEVER come back.



1) If our exporters disappeared, why would any foreign company need to buy AUDs? They wouldn't, and the AUD would plummet. This is supply and demand. I hope the demand is so high for our commodities, and so low for US goods, that AUDUSD goes to $1.50.
2) If our manufacturing industries go, they can and do return, if there is profit to be had. That's economics.


Plumber1 said:


> By using an artificially low exchange rate, the manufacturing industries of the Western world have been gutted and then sent offshore to China.



If the chinamen wish to subsidize our consumption, they can be my guest. At some point, they have to spend those reserves. If they don't, they are literally throwing hard-earned money in the bin.


Plumber1 said:


> Foe what it is worth, I hope the AUD goes back to its normalised, long term trend price of around 80c



This will only occur when the Chinese have a crash, or if the US gets its house in order. The former is not due just yet, and the latter if way off.


zzaaxxss3401 said:


> I could see at least two issues with this.
> 1) To affect the AUDUSD exchange rate, they (and everyone else) would need to be buying USDs. How many billions of AUDs do you think the RBA would need to buy in order to affect the exchange rate? Then we hold USDs... now what? Do you really think the US economy is going to turn around overnight and what interest rate will we be getting for holding USDs? Zero perhaps?



To lower the price of AUD, the RBA bids the price down by selling fresh AUDs. Only to increase the price of AUD, does the RBA need foreign reserves to sell on the market. I am not saying the RBA should do this, only that it can.


zzaaxxss3401 said:


> 2) If you're suggesting printing money (since they are the creator of AUDs), this would cause inflation to sky rocket within Australia. Petrol would go through the roof, house prices would keep rising and wages would have to increase to keep up. Not good. Interest rates would need to be hiked in order to slow down the spending on cheap imports. Do you really want to head back to the 80's with 17-18% interest rates? The stock market would crash because why risk money on shares, when you can get 15% putting it in the bank. The economy collapses because companies are now worthless and they can't raise money from shareholders (if there are any).



I'm sorry, I think you need to do some research. First, 1) is the same as 2). Currency intervention involves 'printing' new AUDs (which are sold on the forex market). Second, yes it is inflationary, but as japan has proven, it can take a very long time for the printing to show up in inflation. Third, you cannot have money printing and also 'hike' interest rates. The RBA increases interest rates by withdrawing AUDs from circulation, and decreases interest rates by increasing (printing) AUDs in circulation. 


zzaaxxss3401 said:


> Oh dear. As I said in my first post, exporters and tourism are already struggling. Where do you think your food comes from - dairy products, cereals, vegetables, meat? Do you think the farmers across Australia are all planning holidays while the AUDUSD is strong?



Whoever the cheapest seller of food is. Australia does not -need- farmers if they cannot produce food economically. 


zzaaxxss3401 said:


> Perhaps your wish of $1.50, is exactly why the Government should have a Resources Tax - to even the playing field across the whole of Australia. Why should the Mining companies continue to make a 59% profit, while the rest of the country goes out of business.



Why would the rest of the country go out of business? Those profits need to be spent somewhere. It is a good thing that our miners are so profitable. And we should have less tax, not more. 


zzaaxxss3401 said:


> Here's a thought though... If you were the only supplier of "cheaper phones" and "cheaper computers" and cars and steel and plastics in the world (aka China), wouldn't you hike the price for Australia to increase your profits and see what people are prepared to pay? Afterall you do have the monopoly and no one else can afford to compete because inflation has pushed wages and factory costs too high here in Australia.



This is an illogical statement. If they hike the prices, the computers and phones are no longer the cheapest, no? And Australia has never had much in the way of value-added industries like electronics. We are not a nation of brains, but of brawn.


----------



## boofhead

Some of China's consumption is based on contruction. For anyone that watched Dateline a month or so ago will have noticed the story of China building cities. Problem is at the moment those cities sit empty. The story featured a city designed for 6 million. The retail area had as much life as the Titanic gets now. One job has a good day when someone actually buys something.


----------



## tothemax6

boofhead said:


> Some of China's consumption is based on contruction. For anyone that watched Dateline a month or so ago will have noticed the story of China building cities. Problem is at the moment those cities sit empty. The story featured a city designed for 6 million. The retail area had as much life as the Titanic gets now. One job has a good day when someone actually buys something.



Its not going to end well, boofhead. Things will recover after China crashes, but the transition will really hurt. Every Aussie should be heavily accumulating savings.


----------



## Wysiwyg

tothemax6 said:


> Its not going to end well, boofhead. Things will recover after China crashes, but the transition will really hurt. Every Aussie should be heavily accumulating savings.



Gee bloke you should let go of the newspapers and television for awhile. For the first 25 years of my life I had no interest in finances and did not read the front pages of a newspaper and missed the nightly news. 

During wars, oil price spikes, interest rate fluctuations and government changes I cannot recall noticing at any time a change in the lifestyles of people in general.

Talking to someone before about how the GFC affected them and they did not know much about the GFC. Again not a newspaper reader or television news watcher.


----------



## tothemax6

Wysiwyg said:


> Gee bloke you should let go of the newspapers and television for awhile. For the first 25 years of my life I had no interest in finances and did not read the front pages of a newspaper and missed the nightly news.



Well that's fair enough, we all have different interests. Once upon a time I had no interest in economics whatsoever either. That was 2008. If you'd asked me back then what a government bond was, I'd have looked at you funny and said 'a what?'.

But I think there is much to be said for having a rough idea of the global economy. Whilst you or the people you know may not have been affected much by various economic calamities (the GFC made no difference to my lifestyle whatsoever also), I know people who's lives were very severely effected by the GFC. Sometimes it pays to forgo some of that 'ignorant bliss'.


----------



## basilio

Seems as if the AUD will continue to rise with the pressure of Chinas demand for our iron ore.
Is the the opportunity for  foreign exchange play ?








						China's demand for steel may boost Aussie dollar to 80 US cents, analysts predict
					

The Australian dollar is expected to keep surging as long as China's hunger for steel remains insatiable and the US struggles to control its COVID-19 outbreak, according to currency experts.




					www.abc.net.au


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## mullokintyre

basilio said:


> Seems as if the AUD will continue to rise with the pressure of Chinas demand for our iron ore.
> Is the the opportunity for  foreign exchange play ?
> 
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> China's demand for steel may boost Aussie dollar to 80 US cents, analysts predict
> 
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> The Australian dollar is expected to keep surging as long as China's hunger for steel remains insatiable and the US struggles to control its COVID-19 outbreak, according to currency experts.
> 
> 
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> 
> www.abc.net.au



How quickly sentiment can change,
AUD vs USD peg now below 73 handle.
Good for AUS exporters, not so for those importing..
This will just add a little bit more to the inflationary pressures.
AS usual, the RBA living in a dream world, not expecting inflation til 2023 or thereabouts.
Mick


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## mullokintyre

I wonder if our RBA head is talking to or even listening to the NZ equivalent.
According to ABC News
In a statement, the Reserve Bank of New Zealand said its Monetary Policy Committee would keep the "current stimulatory level of monetary settings", meaning the official cash rate remains at 0.25 per cent.


> "Today’s decision was made in the context of the Government’s imposition of Level 4 COVID restrictions on activity across New Zealand," it explained, meaning the rate is likely to rise in the near future if the outbreak can be contained.
> So long as the outbreak is contained, the first rise in the cash rate since 2014 will happen at next month's meeting, according to ANZ New Zealand's chief economist Sharon Zollner.
> 
> "COVID cases, that's the only data that matters over the next week or two," she said.
> 
> "If we do manage to get on top of this — touch wood — then they'll pick up.
> 
> "It seems pretty clear that if it hadn't been for this curveball, then our expectation that the Reserve Bank would have become considerably more hawkish was indeed correct."
> 
> Most economists predicted a rate rise due to the bank hitting its targets for employment and inflation — something Australia's central bank has consistently failed to do.



Its bad enough that they beat us in Rugby, now they are leading us in the economic handle pulling.
Mick


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## StockyGuy

How did I miss going long term long on AUD/USD when it the 50s March last year?  Even low 60s.    Hindsight is 20/20 (for 2020) and all that.


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## qldfrog

long term wise, it seems we may have to wait a while before buying like crazy on amazon and ebay, and good for gold in aud.
5c down out of 75c sonearly down 7% in less than a month and reaching/breaking?  dangerous support level of the 2020 ...


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## mullokintyre

Wonder what will happen when the RBA raises rates next week?
Will we get 25 Bp rise or  40 BP, or even the whole 50 BP?
Mick


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