# One Good Trade



## CanOz (11 July 2012)

After 9 months of trading on SIM, cycling through indicators and methods, attending webinars, endless hours watching the markets....I'm running out of time. My wife gave me 12 months and I've almost used that up (August 25th). The pressure is on.

I've made progress, I'm down to a simple method in determining the markets structure and I use the DOM for entry at those predetermined levels. I still have some big issues to over come. They are, but probably not limited to:

1.) *Over-trading* - As TH says I'm working for the broker'
2.) *Taking the wrong trades*
3.) *Failure to plan the trades*
4.) *Exiting too early or too late*, not following the plan

So to help me overcome this I've decided to finish up my SIM trading at the end of the month on ASF, a public forum. That gives me a couple of weeks to perfect my *One Good Trade* (book by Mike Bellefiore) before going Live on August 1st and finally end my misery and either *rap or get off the *rapper.

From tomorrow i will attempt to take one trade per day for each market i follow, K200, HSI, Dax and Crude.

*Here are the rules:*
1.) No more than one trade per market, 
2.) If no planned trade setups apparent, don't trade.
3.) Max loss per trade is about 360 EUR on average but its specific to each market.
4.) Max daily loss is 500 EUR
5.) I must take a trade at a predetermined level anticipated in my my plan.
6.) I must use the trade management in auto to go to breakeven. I can move my final contracts target order only.

By doing this on ASF i feel i can make the trade a good one, put my best effort into it by being publicly accountable and learn to exercise discipline.

Tomorrow i will structure the markets and post the plan for the morning sessions, and the trades that i will anticipate. I will try and post the Market structure before the markets open but time is tight in the morning so they may get posted after the open. To start here is the K200, and the HSI.

I'm open to criticism, but please keep it constructive...this is already difficult enough to do!

Cheers,


CanOz


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## sammy84 (12 July 2012)

Best of luck. Will be following with interest.


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## springhill (12 July 2012)

Good luck mate, not my area of interest but wishing you the best all the same. Will watch with interest.


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## tech/a (12 July 2012)

Can

It's-all well and good having a "plan" but do you know it's
Longterm profitable.
IE fully back tested and then --- here forward test it.
If all your doing is forward testing in R/T your going
To be bitterly disappointed I think.


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## kid hustlr (12 July 2012)

GL Can.

Can you quickly explain the indicators on the charts?


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## KurwaJegoMac (12 July 2012)

Good luck Can.

Can I ask why the desire to limit yourself to only one trade per instrument per day? 

I would have thought the number of trades you take would be limited by your maximum daily loss or whenever you're in the money and the market goes quiet.


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## CanOz (12 July 2012)

This is a fully descretionary trading method, to my knowledge it cannot be backtested. Volume profile is just used to identify strong support or resistance, anticipate directional bias, and the type of day it will be. The stop, and trade management is already programmed into the ATM on Ninja. By watching the order flow at these levels I'll try and align myself with one that wins the auction!

One trade makes me focus, apply patience and discipline in order to cut down on trades and improve the quality. 

Cheers,



CanOz


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## 5oclock (12 July 2012)

Gday CAN and goodluck."One Good Trade", did you take much away with you from Bellas book CAN, I am about half way through it and cannot put it down.


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## tech/a (12 July 2012)

Can

In all seriousness I have read the things your doing wrong in your opinion
Your rules
Your what you intend to do
I cant see anything that inspires confidence.

Just have a re read
I'm sure you'll see what I mean


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## CanOz (12 July 2012)

tech/a said:


> Can
> 
> In all seriousness I have read the things your doing wrong in your opinion
> Your rules
> ...




Thanks Tech, appreciate your effort. This isn't a trading system that I've outlined. Its a method to train me to only trade my plan, and not keep trying to enter and exit the market all day long. I've mentioned that the method is discretionary, entering trades at key levels.

CanOz


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## tech/a (12 July 2012)

Not having a go just *devils advocate*.



> 1.) Over-trading - As TH says I'm working for the broker'




Ties with 2) If your over trading your seeing setups that arent good setups or your method doesnt have a contingency for low --er win rates.



> 2.) Taking the wrong trades




If you took the trade then it was "right at the time" if not there is something seriously wrong with your entry technique and see 1)



> 3.) Failure to plan the trades




The biggest problem and in my view the crux of all problems. You dont know what to do when your in a trade. How to minimise loss and how to maximise gain--that is ALL there is!



> 4.) Exiting too early or too late, not following the plan




Hard to follow the plan when there isnt one??

*I reckon your Guessing!--*
You dont know what "The Rules" should be!
Seriously thats what it seems to me.


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## CanOz (12 July 2012)

Done for day, two losses in a row on the K200 and the HSI. Got caught trying to fade an opening drive like no other I've seen in the last few months! 400 point nearly...WTF?


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## skc (12 July 2012)

CanOz said:


> After 9 months of trading on SIM, cycling through indicators and methods, attending webinars, endless hours watching the markets....I'm running out of time. My wife gave me 12 months and I've almost used that up (August 25th). The pressure is on.




Can, I think doing a journal on here is the exact right thing to do. I've done it several times and it is very surprising how disclosing the rationale and management of your trades to a bunch of strangers on the internet can make you honest (unless you are a pathological lier). 

I found that if I am too embarassed to share a certain entry, chances are I am trying to bend the rules and make my observations fit my expectations. The same with exits. Note obviosuly this doesn't solve the problem of the method being actually no good (not saying that's your problem), but I think it will significantly assist in the 4 issues you've identified above.

As to your wife's deadline... what's the alternative anyway? Start with real money and risk losing? Or let the last 12 months go to waste (assuming she's unfamiliar with the concepts of stop loss and sunk cost)? Clearly an extention shall be granted.

Good luck.


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## skc (12 July 2012)

CanOz said:


> Done for day, two losses in a row on the K200 and the HSI. Got caught trying to fade an opening drive like no other I've seen in the last few months! 400 point nearly...WTF?




If the markets are correlated (which K200 and HSI appears to be) and you are taking the same trade with the same plan etc... is that really 2 trades or is it just one trade. In another word, should only one trade be taken, or each trade be half the size/risk?


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## CanOz (12 July 2012)

skc said:


> If the markets are correlated (which K200 and HSI appears to be) and you are taking the same trade with the same plan etc... is that really 2 trades or is it just one trade. In another word, should only one trade be taken, or each trade be half the size/risk?




I treated them as separate trades because they were taken at different times. I can't enter a trade in both markets at the same time. After i took the K200 trade i waited for what i thought was a fade play on the HSI and took that, got pounded out.

Good question though SKC. 

CanOz


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## Gringotts Bank (12 July 2012)

CanOz said:


> Done for day, two losses in a row on the K200 and the HSI. Got caught trying to fade an opening drive like no other I've seen in the last few months! 400 point nearly...WTF?




Get back on the horse mate.  Actually it's a wild beast.


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## Trembling Hand (12 July 2012)

CanOz said:


> After i took the K200 trade i waited for what i thought was a fade play on the HSI and took that, got pounded out.




Keep at. Only thing that seperates the scared and lost from the ones that eventually succeed is lessons taken *AND *implemented 

and not blowing up.

Here some inspiration, points not dollars!!


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## sinner (12 July 2012)

Why one trade per day? Unless you expect to be right >90% of the time, how is that going to work? Lose a day, no more trades for that day even though the next setup could pay back the first one plus profit? So how will you cope if every single day you go to play for the next month the first trade of the day is a loser?

To me it makes a lot more sense to simply alot your max loss (500EUR) for the day rather than concentrating on the number of trades.

IMHO, this:


> 'm running out of time. My wife gave me 12 months and I've almost used that up (August 25th). The pressure is on




says a lot. Look back over all your threads recently, and the "Developing a mechanical system from scratch" thread too. Ask yourself how sure you are that your new found DOM reading, key level watching technique is not just another thing you've hopped into without knowing what it is you're actually looking for. Because, let's be honest, if it is, then it will probably be about as successful as the other attempts at ORBs, genetic programming, etc.


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## peter2 (12 July 2012)

Can: I think you should re-read "One Good Trade" in light of what you are trying to do. 

I agree with Tech/a in that you don't have a plan rather a few general ideas. I was disappointed with the content of your plan after all the work you seem to have done. 

Bellafiore writes that you need a detailed plan with many "what if" scenarios. Firstly you need to to find a stock "in play". You've done this by selecting two correlated markets. Might be better sticking to one in the Asian session and perhaps another in the UK session (DAX?). 

Your plan to only have one trade doesn't allow you to have any "what if" scenarios. You have to allow yourself a few trades/session but limit your daily loss amount. Once this daily/session limit is hit then you stop and review. 

This morning you picked a S/R level and tried a "fade" trade which failed. What happens after a "fade" trade fails, I suspect you have a BO trade opportunity. I submit this basic scenario as a better plan of attack for you. If this is your favourite setup then master it in the markets you trade. (What generally happens to your fade play in the first hour, last hour, when price is near the high/low of the previous day, high/low of current session. etc.... ) Your tape reading skills (confirmation for execution) should help you lower your ave loss and speed up your execution (before the candles are printed for the rest of us to see and act on).

Obviously you should add a few more scenarios to your play book as you recognise them (with experience). eg. BO failure, 1st pullback. 

Bella has a large play book, with a few favourites and knows exactly what he wants to see before he sees it. A good trade is doing exactly what you planned to do. 

Yes, of course you must continue studying your markets, but without a detailed plan (one scenario) going live might be too destructive for your capital and more importantly your mental/emotional capital.


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## CanOz (12 July 2012)

*Excellent post Peter*. Very much appreciated...

The IF/Then statements are a great idea. I will review this morning disaster and see how that would have helped me interpret the market a little differently, while planning for the DAX.

CanOz


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## 5oclock (12 July 2012)

Good post PETER, you dont say much but what you do say is always worth reading.    1+


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## Gringotts Bank (12 July 2012)

Canoz, you're doing what pavillion used to do, namely, giving away your authority to anyone who has an opinion.  Even if Peter's post is brilliant, he won't be there at your next trade, nor will anyone else.  You have to trust yourself.

Had your trade made money this morning, all your "advisers" would have had to wait with baited breath.  Wait till a losing trade then BOOM "Canoz you should have done this, you should have done that".  meanwhile they never post any of their own trades.  It's a circus.


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## sinner (12 July 2012)

Gringotts Bank said:


> Canoz, you're doing what pavillion used to do, namely, giving away your authority to anyone who has an opinion.  Even if Peter's post is brilliant, he won't be there at your next trade, nor will anyone else.  You have to trust yourself.




+1

Ain't no technique that's gonna save you from that.


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## tech/a (12 July 2012)

> might be too destructive for your capital and more importantly your *WIFES* mental/emotional capital




I guess Ive always taken it for granted that people know how to structure a trading plan.
But from Cans response to Peters post---perhaps Im wrong.
Is there any past archived info on this (How to structure a profitable trading plan). or is it just splattered throughout various threads with no Format?

Mind you there would be some differing opinion Im sure!


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## Trembling Hand (12 July 2012)

Gringotts Bank said:


> Had your trade......
> 
> meanwhile they never post any of their own trades.  It's a circus.




give us some credit! 



Trembling Hand said:


> Here some inspiration, points not dollars!!
> 
> View attachment 47877


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## sinner (12 July 2012)

tech/a said:


> I guess Ive always taken it for granted that people know how to structure a trading plan.
> But from Cans response to Peters post---perhaps Im wrong.
> Is there any past archived info on this (How to structure a profitable trading plan). or is it just splattered throughout various threads with no Format?
> 
> Mind you there would be some differing opinion Im sure!




There definitely is plenty of good info on this forum about this topic. I have a bunch of it saved to my own notes.


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## skc (12 July 2012)

Gringotts Bank said:


> Had your trade made money this morning, all your "advisers" would have had to wait with baited breath.  Wait till a losing trade then BOOM "Canoz you should have done this, you should have done that".  meanwhile they never post any of their own trades.  It's a circus.




Yeah.. show some love...I had a whole thread with my own trades for the last 6 weeks.

https://www.aussiestockforums.com/forums/showthread.php?t=14508&page=42&p=717437#post717437


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## sinner (12 July 2012)

Gringotts Bank said:


> Had your trade made money this morning, all your "advisers" would have had to wait with baited breath.  Wait till a losing trade then BOOM "Canoz you should have done this, you should have done that".  meanwhile they never post any of their own trades.  It's a circus.




Circus! Wait. This actually didn't happen. CanOz lost trades and nobody told him he should have done anything. So...not a circus?


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## CanOz (12 July 2012)

Gringotts Bank said:


> Canoz, you're doing what pavillion used to do, namely, giving away your authority to anyone who has an opinion.  Even if Peter's post is brilliant, he won't be there at your next trade, nor will anyone else.  You have to trust yourself.
> 
> Had your trade made money this morning, all your "advisers" would have had to wait with baited breath.  Wait till a losing trade then BOOM "Canoz you should have done this, you should have done that".  meanwhile they never post any of their own trades.  It's a circus.




Yeah GB, but its not like i didn't expect some comments though. I need to hold myself accountable to someone(s). That's the difficult thing about a solitary sport like this...

Some take-aways from the PMs and the posts here that i will incorporate for tomorrow:

1.) Fewer contracts. But i need a runner, so I'll cut back to two.

2.) Some 'what-ifs', just so i use my imagination and try to prepare better for the unpredictable. 

3.) A few key setups (the 1-2-3, Fade at extremes. Quick 'Pops' at thin zones.)

4.) I think I'm going to back off and trade one Asian market.... Gives me more 'bullets'. I'll pick the market based on the previous nights analysis.


I'm not going to post my trading plan, there's enough personality in this thread already. It will be the same everyday. What i need to do is sharpen the standard work when my setups appear. This needs to be done intuitively, written plans are great to commit the ideas to memory but can you imagine trying to access a plan while trading the Hang Seng? That's like texting while driving...

Cheers,


CanOz


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## Gringotts Bank (12 July 2012)

skc said:


> Yeah.. show some love...I had a whole thread with my own trades for the last 6 weeks.
> 
> https://www.aussiestockforums.com/forums/showthread.php?t=14508&page=42&p=717437#post717437




I couldn't find the love icon.  This one is kind of nice though.  Bananas for everyone.
:bananasmi

We are playing the hardest game on the planet (aside from golf).  Anyone who has a real crack at it deserves respect.


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## sinner (12 July 2012)

CanOz said:


> but can you imagine trying to access a plan while trading the Hang Seng? That's like texting while driving...




Practice makes perfect (internalisation)!


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## CanOz (12 July 2012)

This is a 1-2-3 or A-B-C setup that you see very frequently. I want to use this setup as a continuation or potential reversal. I must also incorporate with a level.

CanOz


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## Boggo (12 July 2012)

CanOz said:


> This is a 1-2-3 or A-B-C setup that you see very frequently. I want to use this setup as a continuation or potential reversal. I must also incorporate with a level.
> 
> CanOz



In isolation that pattern can be risky, the pattern lead up to there is the clue, ie, where does it fit in.
As you say continuation of an existing pattern or a reversal at the end of the current pattern.

I reckon that it is probably not a bad thing to get a few failed trades to start, the only sure way to test your ability to survive when it goes wrong, and it will more often than right.

This is worth getting hold of for some bedtime reading.
(It won't teach you how to trade but it will get you thinking about *how* you do trade)
http://itunes.apple.com/us/book/universal-principles-successful/id406013588?mt=11


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## CanOz (12 July 2012)

Setup No2, VPOC Shifts.

I never knew that these had a name but apparently there called VPOC shifts. I only know that they seemed to be pressure points after a consolidation and when they 'popped', everyone runs for the exits.

The market gapped down and had an aggressive opening drive to lows. In stead of trying to fade a low where no clear support is, wait until the market comes back into the volume area, actually called the value area. This is usually a grid, a slow tedious auction. Once over the point of control or where the most average volume had traded, watch the order flow ladder for a shift in the cumulative delta, the real time open interest. Once this shifts positive, get ready to pull the trigger and hang on....

This happened very frequently on the DAX. Until i had the volume profile tool i could not adequately visualize this  setup.

Once the short covering is finished, in this case the GAP fill, the market will attempt to find value again and the market delta shifts, and the price drops to the value area again. Oddly enough this actually happened again on a smaller scale. It does this quite frequently if an opening drive has been quite aggressive. The thin areas where there were few contracts traded make for quick passage.

CanOz

Edit: I cut off the words 'THIN' near the rectangle. It should say Thin Area.


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## waza1960 (12 July 2012)

Good luck Can,
      One thing worries me re psychology 
            To have a dead line and expectations of success from those close to you (realisitic or otherwise)
      will be hard to deal with while Discretionary trading


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## CanOz (12 July 2012)

waza1960 said:


> Good luck Can,
> One thing worries me re psychology
> To have a dead line and expectations of success from those close to you (realisitic or otherwise)
> will be hard to deal with while Discretionary trading




Yup, no argument there Waza. I'm feeling the pressure LOL! I would have put that pressure on myself nonetheless, i know you understand that. I wish i could code these things you know, but the most obscure seems to work better...!

Cheers,


CanOz


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## Ves (12 July 2012)

CanOz said:


> Yup, no argument there Waza. I'm feeling the pressure LOL! I would have put that pressure on myself nonetheless, i know you understand that. I wish i could code these things you know, but the most obscure seems to work better...!
> 
> Cheers,
> 
> ...



I'll stick to long-term investing mate, it requires me to be patient in a way I am more capable of rather than demanding results within short-time frames to stay afloat!  I do admire the guys that can trade successfully though, it takes as much discipline, skill and experience. Best of luck, I'll be reading your adventures closely, if only to learn from the psychology aspect.


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## Julia (12 July 2012)

Ves said:


> I'll stick to long-term investing mate, it requires me to be patient in a way I am more capable of rather than demanding results within short-time frames to stay afloat!  I do admire the guys that can trade successfully though, it takes as much discipline, skill and experience. Best of luck, I'll be reading your adventures closely, if only to learn from the psychology aspect.



Great example of respecting an approach different from your own.  So much more useful than picking out the points of disagreement.  Goodonya Ves.

Best of luck Canoz.  I'm quite surprised to discover you are actually not a seasoned trader.


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## skc (12 July 2012)

Julia said:


> Great example of respecting an approach different from your own.  So much more useful than picking out the points of disagreement.  Goodonya Ves.
> 
> Best of luck Canoz.  *I'm quite surprised to discover you are actually not a seasoned trader.*



*
*

+1... or did he change markets / instruments / timeframe?


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## CanOz (12 July 2012)

skc said:


> [/B]
> 
> +1... or did he change markets / instruments / timeframe?




I trade equities EOD and have done so for 7 years. Intraday futures are reasonably new to me.

Cheers,


CanOz


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## CanOz (12 July 2012)

Perhaps i should stick with equities...this is a 20% flipper trade. I'm supposed to exit tonight at market. Its up over 10% in pre-market and up nearly a buck since yesterday...

CanOz


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## sinner (12 July 2012)

CanOz said:


> Perhaps i should stick with equities...this is a 20% flipper trade. I'm supposed to exit tonight at market. Its up over 10% in pre-market and up nearly a buck since yesterday...
> 
> CanOz




I thought the exit was a 20% trailing stop? Is an index filter kicking in or something?


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## Joules MM1 (12 July 2012)

CanOz said:


> Perhaps i should stick with equities...this is a 20% flipper trade. I'm supposed to exit tonight at market. Its up over 10% in pre-market and up nearly a buck since yesterday...
> 
> CanOz




top trade !


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## CanOz (12 July 2012)

sinner said:


> Is an index filter kicking in or something?




Yup...MA on the SPX.

CanOz


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## sinner (13 July 2012)

CanOz said:


> Yup...MA on the SPX.
> 
> CanOz




Right, makes more sense, Don't usually see a trend following system exit longs on highs :


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## CanOz (13 July 2012)

sinner said:


> Right, makes more sense, Don't usually see a trend following system exit longs on highs :




I just hope we don't 'flip' around that MA for weeks... Not looking like a problem...

For the Asian Markets today:
Today's plan involves waiting as the developing points of control take shape. I need to use my volume ladder more effectively as well. That would have kept me out of yesterdays downdraft, and shows the absorption much better than just using the DOM. I'll also use the Cumulative Delta to for divergence before i ever attempt to pick a low again too.

CanOz


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## skc (13 July 2012)

CanOz said:


> I trade equities EOD and have done so for 7 years. Intraday futures are reasonably new to me.
> 
> Cheers,
> 
> ...




Why not stick to something you know and (presumably) have a successful history? Or did you not do equities EOD full time before?

IMHO futures is the best instrument but it is also the most difficult. Equities is much easier.


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## Trembling Hand (13 July 2012)

CanOz said:


> ...... before i ever attempt to pick a low again too.
> 
> CanOz




Bounces from sweeps down have a certain pattern. Yesterdays never really setup correctly from that sweep to bounce. And in any case there is always a higher low to get on rather than getting what you think/hope will be the low tick.

My problem yesterday was I was in way before the sweep!! I literately dumped my whole position a fraction of a second after the hit. I actually thought I had fat fingered it and hit out with a 1000 lot.


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## CanOz (13 July 2012)

skc said:


> Why not stick to something you know and (presumably) have a successful history? Or did you not do equities EOD full time before?
> 
> IMHO futures is the best instrument but it is also the most difficult. Equities is much easier.




I still trade Equities SKC, but I'm trading systematically. This gives me the time to learn to trade the Futs. I appreciate that advice to stick with what you know, its great for some people. I like to learn new things and this is one challenge that i just can't let go of...i hate giving up...

I have got capital reserved for equities, as well as a futures account. Two accounts on IB, separate capital. The equity system has over 80% of our capital.

CanOz


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## CanOz (13 July 2012)

Trembling Hand said:


> Bounces from sweeps down have a certain pattern. Yesterdays never really setup correctly from that sweep to bounce. And in any case there is always a higher low to get on rather than getting what you think/hope will be the low tick.
> 
> My problem yesterday was I was in way before the sweep!! I literately dumped my whole position a fraction of a second after the hit. I actually thought I had fat fingered it and hit out with a 1000 lot.




Yup, thats the ticket for me...add another rule...Kospi just put in a nice higher low actually, but whats the sense trading that 3 minutes before the HSI opens???

CanOz


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## Trembling Hand (13 July 2012)

CanOz said:


> but whats the sense trading that 3 minutes before the HSI opens???
> 
> CanOz




I _always _load up for the open, you mean others don't do that? :shoot:


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## CanOz (13 July 2012)

Trembling Hand said:


> I _always _load up for the open, you mean others don't do that? :shoot:




LOL!, that's why you're a prop trader and I'm just fish flapping on the shore!!

Got some nice value areas forming now...

CanOz


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## skc (13 July 2012)

CanOz said:


> I still trade Equities SKC, but I'm trading systematically. This gives me the time to learn to trade the Futs. I appreciate that advice to stick with what you know, its great for some people. I like to learn new things and this is one challenge that i just can't let go of...i hate giving up...
> 
> I have got capital reserved for equities, as well as a futures account. Two accounts on IB, separate capital. The equity system has over 80% of our capital.
> 
> CanOz




All good. I just got the wrong impression that you are giving up something that's working while framing yourself a deadline to make something new work straight away. The pressure to trade profitably is best handled when you don't need to trade profitably (to put food on the table etc).


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## CanOz (13 July 2012)

skc said:


> All good. I just got the wrong impression that you are giving up something that's working while framing yourself a deadline to make something new work straight away. The pressure to trade profitably is best handled when you don't need to trade profitably (to put food on the table etc).




Oh for sure, yeah great point. We're having no problem putting food on the table...especially with that new Tesco on the other side of the lake.

We have no mortgage, no car loan. Our total monthly expenses are about 5000 rmb per month on average and we've have a ton of savings...very lucky. Well actually it was allot of hard bloody work for 7 years...

CanOz


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## sinner (13 July 2012)

CanOz said:


> Our total monthly expenses are about 5000 rmb per month on average




Damn I pay that in rent.


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## prawn_86 (13 July 2012)

sinner said:


> Damn I pay that in rent.




I pay double that (10k RMB) in rent per month  Aus is so expensive in comparative terms to most countries


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## skc (13 July 2012)

CanOz said:


> Oh for sure, yeah great point. We're having no problem putting food on the table...especially with that new Tesco on the other side of the lake.
> 
> We have no mortgage, no car loan. Our total monthly expenses are about 5000 rmb per month on average and we've have a ton of savings...very lucky. Well actually it was allot of hard bloody work for 7 years...
> 
> CanOz




I pay that in brokerage most weeks... and you have a bloody Lake...


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## Gringotts Bank (13 July 2012)

Let's all move to China.  We can create our own little ghetto and just speak English amongst ourselves!


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## CanOz (13 July 2012)

Gringotts Bank said:


> Let's all move to China.  We can create our own little ghetto and just speak English amongst ourselves!




Thats pretty much what we do!


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## Gringotts Bank (13 July 2012)

CanOz said:


> Thats pretty much what we do!




Doesn't that annoy the locals?   When in Rome... yes?


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## prawn_86 (13 July 2012)

Gringotts Bank said:


> Let's all move to China.




I'd prefer South America personally...


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## Gringotts Bank (13 July 2012)

prawn_86 said:


> I'd prefer South America personally...




Not Juarez though.  yikes.


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## CanOz (13 July 2012)

Gringotts Bank said:


> Doesn't that annoy the locals?   When in Rome... yes?




Well we don't actually have our own communities...but i think generally we fair poorly on the language side...

CanOz


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## Gringotts Bank (13 July 2012)

CanOz said:


> Well we don't actually have our own communities...but i think generally we fair poorly on the language side...
> 
> CanOz




New nic for you.  cana-aussie-uk-china


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## CanOz (13 July 2012)

Gringotts Bank said:


> New nic for you.  cana-aussie-uk-china




Hopefully GB, we'll be back in Australia just in time for the property low...

CanOz


----------



## Trembling Hand (13 July 2012)

CanOz said:


> Yup, thats the ticket for me...add another rule...Kospi just put in a nice higher low actually,




You take this trade? Been running all day!


----------



## CanOz (13 July 2012)

Trembling Hand said:


> You take this trade? Been running all day!





Nope, just standing here like a f****** deer in the headlights...Cumulative Bd/Ash rising all day....duhhhh!



I really hate markets that just churn up or down...:bad:

Get that bloody DAX Fueled up and running...

CanOz


----------



## CanOz (15 July 2012)

Having not taken trades on Friday i spent the day studying Market Profile and trying to understand how to best incorpoarte this organisation of data into a trading plan.

This weekend i spent some time analysing how price reacts in and out of the value areas and how that is best traded. I now have some trading setups that i can look for after the market determines its initial value area. Market replay is very handy for replaying the weeks price action. So i now have several little setups to test in my playbook.

The first two charts are of the HSI and what we may expect for the coming session. You can see on the chart that there has been a fairly large range in play. The range is where buyers and sellers agreed on value, for the most part. There was a test of higher prices and that was rejected. 

I'm off to Shangers on Monday for the day so i won't be able to post charts, curious to see what happens.

Cheers,


CanOz


----------



## Trembling Hand (16 July 2012)

CanOz said:


> This weekend i spent some time analysing how price reacts in and out of the value areas and how that is best traded.




You're making the same mistake everyone who wants to trade makes. You think Technical Analysis works and therefore are looking to incorporate the best tools. Mostly its a waste of time.

TA is a tool to hang your bias on. Work on increasing your implicit knowledge. Then use TA to frame your trades based on how you think it will play out the next 15- 60 min, day etc.



> From wiki,
> *Tacit knowledge* (as opposed to formal or explicit knowledge) is the kind of knowledge that is difficult to transfer to another person by means of writing it down or verbalising it. For example, stating to someone that London is in the United Kingdom is a piece of explicit knowledge that can be written down, transmitted, and understood by a recipient. However, the ability to speak a language, use algebra,[1] or design and use complex equipment requires all sorts of knowledge that is not always known explicitly, even by expert practitioners, and which is difficult to explicitly transfer to users.
> While tacit knowledge appears to be simple, it has far reaching consequences and is not widely understood.


----------



## Joules MM1 (16 July 2012)

Trembling Hand said:


> You're making the same mistake everyone who wants to trade makes. You think Technical Analysis works and therefore are looking to incorporate the best tools. Mostly its a waste of time.
> 
> TA is a tool to hang your bias on. Work on increasing your implicit knowledge. Then use TA to frame your trades based on how you think it will play out the next 15- 60 min, day etc.




you mean.....there's still no secret weapon...... ?


----------



## Trembling Hand (16 July 2012)

Joules MM1 said:


> you mean.....there's still no secret weapon...... ?




Not so sure. Lots of books and seminars about it......


----------



## Joules MM1 (16 July 2012)

Trembling Hand said:


> Not so sure. Lots of books and seminars about it......




lulz.....the word youre looking for is "no"


----------



## tech/a (16 July 2012)

Joules MM1 said:


> you mean.....there's still no secret weapon...... ?




For God's sake keep it down.

The holy grail is that there is NO HOLY GRAIL!
Once you discover the Holy Grail it all falls into place.


----------



## burglar (16 July 2012)

tech/a said:


> For God's sake keep it down.
> 
> The holy grail is that there is NO HOLY GRAIL!
> Once you discover the Holy Grail it all falls into place.




Always talking in riddles, ... never letting on!!

Deeply mysterious!


----------



## tech/a (16 July 2012)

burglar said:


> Always talking in riddles, ... never letting on!!
> 
> Deeply mysterious!




There is no need to be Mysterious and I guess it needs to be spelt out.
I must admit that many years ago when I made this amazing discovery I
wasnt entirely sure that I was on to what the "mystics" talked about.

Ill start a new thread when I write up the stuff that needs 
to be "let on".

T/H has summed it up well----enough.
But there are specifics.
His Wiki link is pertinent.


----------



## onthesword (16 July 2012)

There is a famous old blues song called Cross Road Blues, the secret is there


----------



## Gringotts Bank (16 July 2012)

onthesword said:


> There is a famous old blues song called Cross Road Blues, the secret is there




Finding a sweet woman?  That it?


----------



## Trembling Hand (16 July 2012)

Gringotts Bank said:


> Finding a sweet woman?  That it?




Never found a problem that that wouldn't fix........... or at least make you forget about the problems :evilburn:


----------



## onthesword (16 July 2012)

Well a sweet woman is always better than a sour one , but it ain't the secret . Criptic clue in in TH's smilie


----------



## CanOz (16 July 2012)

TH, I really don't see how the structuring the market, doing some homework, trying to understand what is probable has to do with making a mistake that is typical of other TA Traders. You may be gifted enough to understand the order flow in the DOM and get in with the controlling side more often than not for larger wins than losses, but I need to understand what levels are likely to bring in sellers or buyers. Market or volume profile is a REAL method for doing this. This is my larger time frame.

Now I have not perfected any setups as of yet, but the homework is the first step in understanding where and how the auction process will decide what is a fair or unfair price. 

The volume traded at these levels has a shelf life and price reacts to that, as is evident on any chart. 

Surely you do some analysis of the larger time after hours? Or do you do the analysis on the run, as you trade?

CanOz

PS, can someone post a 5 minute chart of the HSI from today?


----------



## tech/a (16 July 2012)

CanOz said:


> The volume traded at these levels has a shelf life and price reacts to that, as is evident on any chart.
> CanOz




But price doesn't always re visit old levels.
At best you have a 50 / 50 opportunity of
Returning to a value area in the one ay or to an old one
Impulse moves are evidence of that.

Not all volume is equal.

You see it DOESN'T MATTER.


----------



## Joules MM1 (16 July 2012)

tech/a said:


> But price doesn't always re visit old levels.
> At best you have a 50 / 50 opportunity of
> Returning to a value area in the one ay or to an old one
> Impulse moves are evidence of that.
> ...




i think a good idea is for you to end your emphatic sentences with "to me"....afterall, arent you doing exactly what youre promoting? Youre saying; give up fitting round holes n square pegs and go onto creating new ones, yourself?

(this should be fun)


----------



## tech/a (16 July 2012)

Joules MM1 said:


> i think a good idea is for you to end your emphatic sentences with "to me"....afterall, arent you doing exactly what youre promoting? Youre saying; give up fitting round holes n square pegs and go onto creating new ones, yourself?
> 
> (this should be fun)




I'm sure you'll enjoy it.
I'll have tea and write it up
In a separate thread.


----------



## CanOz (16 July 2012)

tech/a said:


> But price doesn't always re visit old levels.
> At best you have a 50 / 50 opportunity of
> Returning to a value area in the one ay or to an old one
> Impulse moves are evidence of that.
> ...





Why does it not matter? If price is accepted at another level and rejects the historical level, then it could be one way to stay with a trend and look for the next area that price must be accepted or rejected. I don't see how this is allot different from what your descretionary method attempts to do. 

The higher volume the more relevant these levels become as it is evidence that more agreement on price occurred at these levels. Price tends to move quickly in areas where it is NOT accepted as fair value. These are impulse moves are caused by large orders that shift the current value of price to a newly accepted area.

CanOz


----------



## tech/a (16 July 2012)

> (this should be fun)






> Why does it not matter?





Duck over here!

https://www.aussiestockforums.com/forums/showthread.php?t=25121&p=718324#post718324


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## boofis (16 July 2012)

In regards to DOM, it seems one of its biggest draw cards is that its not necessary (maybe optional, I'm no expert) to plot out support/resistance areas from the past as that's kind of irrelevant because one can now 'see' support and resistance by how the orders flow (e.g. speed and who's hitting what, for the ES at least).

So it almost seems counter-productive to plot out previous s/r when you can see the s/r as it happens (though I do find this hard to keep up with at times). 

My 2c.


----------



## CanOz (16 July 2012)

boofis said:


> In regards to DOM, it seems one of its biggest draw cards is that its not necessary (maybe optional, I'm no expert) to plot out support/resistance areas from the past as that's kind of irrelevant because one can now 'see' support and resistance by how the orders flow (e.g. speed and who's hitting what, for the ES at least).
> 
> So it almost seems counter-productive to plot out previous s/r when you can see the s/r as it happens (though I do find this hard to keep up with at times).
> 
> My 2c.




Sure, accepted...but in looking for more than a scalp, the larger time is needed so as to anticipate the target and avoid scalping all day long. I want to know where and for how long the price will rise or fall before it is accepted as fair value again. This keeps me trading against the flow in the market and can keep my runner in the trades longer. 

I'm trying to avoid working for the broker....

CanOz


----------



## boofis (16 July 2012)

Fair point, personally I only seem to be profitable when putting a fair bit in the brokers pocket so I will bow out at that :\


----------



## waza1960 (16 July 2012)

> Duck over here!
> 
> https://www.aussiestockforums.com/for...324#post718324




  +1 to that post Tech covering most of what I was thinking of adding (saves me some time lol)
This is how I would put it.. and keeping in mind that my perspective is biased towards system trading.

  If you look at entry efficiency (with systems building )then with Market Entries it is hard to get any meaningful   results above 55% which is close to random therefore how much time and effort are you  putting in to try and 
  gain a few extra percentage points of entry efficency by using different T/A approaches when IMO that effort
  could be put into trade/money management.

   Where my view differs from Tech (assumption)is that I'm not interested in Trends at all below a Time Frame of 240mins  I use mean reversion strategies only.

 I think it was mentioned earlier regarding Backtesting.............. Why not create some basic strategies with simple entry conditions and backtest those to get an idea of a simpler entry that occurs frequently and get some idea of the value of  profit targets and stops and then trade that setup then adding some of your discretion to the trade


----------



## CanOz (16 July 2012)

waza1960 said:


> +1 to that post Tech covering most of what I was thinking of adding (saves me some time lol)
> This is how I would put it.. and keeping in mind that my perspective is biased towards system trading.
> 
> If you look at entry efficiency (with systems building )then with Market Entries it is hard to get any meaningful   results above 55% which is close to random therefore how much time and effort are you  putting in to try and
> ...




Totally agree Waza, but I am trying to master a descretionary method using the DOM, and a tool that organizes data differently than just traditional TA. 

The markets are extremely mean reverting at the moment...your MR systems are testament to that. There are few intraday trends. That's what Mr. Trend trader is having trouble coming to grips with...I think.

CanOz


----------



## waza1960 (16 July 2012)

> Totally agree Waza, but I am trying to master a descretionary method using the DOM, and a tool that organizes data differently than just traditional TA



  And you are to be congratulated for how far you have come in your understanding of market dynamics I was just hoping you were still seeing the forest and not the trees only
 BTW I have always being interested in Market Profile/ Steidlmayer Distribution so good to see your input there.


----------



## CanOz (16 July 2012)

CanOz said:


> Having not taken trades on Friday i spent the day studying Market Profile and trying to understand how to best incorpoarte this organisation of data into a trading plan.
> 
> This weekend i spent some time analysing how price reacts in and out of the value areas and how that is best traded. I now have some trading setups that i can look for after the market determines its initial value area. Market replay is very handy for replaying the weeks price action. So i now have several little setups to test in my playbook.
> 
> ...




Nice GAP up to retest the break of a prior low and then test of the value area, wasn't quite what i expected in that it gapped 50 points higher, but a nice clean rejection of higher prices none the less. Higher Prices are being accepted, but very reluctantly. 

CanOz


----------



## Trembling Hand (17 July 2012)

CanOz said:


> TH, I really don't see how the structuring the market, doing some homework, trying to understand what is probable has to do with making a mistake that is typical of other TA Traders. You may be gifted enough to understand the order flow in the DOM and get in with the controlling side more often than not for larger wins than losses, but I need to understand what levels are likely to bring in sellers or buyers. Market or volume profile is a REAL method for doing this. This is my larger time frame.
> 
> Now I have not perfected any setups as of yet, but the homework is the first step in understanding where and how the auction process will decide what is a fair or unfair price.
> 
> ...



Nah either I was too flippant or you have missed what I was saying. Work out what type of market we are *likely *to have *then *workout how your brand of TA may fit in so as to frame trades (wrong/right & R:R). All the work is in the *IF *not the THEN. By that I mean don't get hung up on details. You know likely range from recent history. You know where we are opening. You pretty much have everything there. How we get from present to the extended range is chaotic. TA will not help you. 

For example. When trading your EOD systems my bet is you know when is a more optimal time to be playing long even without taking note of your system signals or specific TA setups. You just get a feel for what is setting up based on previous price action. Even thou most of the time you are letting your system do its thing you still recognise the feel of a market.* We know a lot more than what we know explicitly.* You know when its time to get bullish a lot more accurately than you can pick and shoehorn the specific TA pattern to future price action.

You will get far further in this game just trying to figure out if we are bullish over the next hour/day and roll with it.


----------



## nomore4s (17 July 2012)

Trembling Hand said:


> Nah either I was too flippant or you have missed what I was saying. Work out what type of market we are *likely *to have *then *workout how your brand of TA may fit in so as to frame trades (wrong/right & R:R). All the work is in the *IF *not the THEN. By that I mean don't get hung up on details. You know likely range from recent history. You know where we are opening. You pretty much have everything there. How we get from present to the extended range is chaotic. TA will not help you.
> 
> For example. When trading your EOD systems my bet is you know when is a more optimal time to be playing long even without taking note of your system signals or specific TA setups. You just get a feel for what is setting up based on previous price action. Even thou most of the time you are letting your system do its thing you still recognise the feel of a market.* We know a lot more than what we know explicitly.* You know when its time to get bullish a lot more accurately than you can pick and shoehorn the specific TA pattern to future price action.
> 
> *You will get far further in this game just trying to figure out if we are bullish over the next hour/day and roll with it.*




Great Post TH, especially the bold bit, took me a long time to work that out when day trading.

My best days have always come when I have identified those bullish or bearish hours/days and traded with it. It took me a long time to realise day trading is not about any super special set up but about identifying the daily/hourly trend/pattern and then either participating in it or standing aside because it doesn't suit me.


----------



## sinner (17 July 2012)

Trembling Hand said:


> You will get far further in this game just trying to figure out if we are bullish over the next hour/day and roll with it.




****, I swear I tried to explain this to CanOz already at the end of June.




sinner said:


> You need to break the action down, intraday trends sometimes and mean reverts on the rest. Some valid breakdowns are volatility per time (e.g. Monday 9-10AM is quite different from Thursdays 11-12PM), volatility per absolute momentum (e.g. low vals follow through, high vals mean revert), or volatility per volume (follow when auction is unbalanced zone, fade when auction is balanced zone). Of course you can combine them all but they tend to show high correlation anyway. For the record I use volatility per momentum as well as per time (love them opens), and tend to follow rather than fade intraday.
> 
> This is only an example, but if you read this
> http://trading-naked.com/library/Chap3.pdf
> ...




But of course, that's "fitting dynamism into neat boxes" lol.



sinner said:


> I trade intraday discretionary, so the 'boxes', as you call them, are guidelines, not signals. I suffered from the same problem as CanOz described until I started to quantify the intraday charts by robust metrics and use them as my map. At the very minimum you can see if today is the same as the recent past or the pattern is changing.


----------



## Joules MM1 (17 July 2012)

sinner said:


> "fitting dynamism into neat boxes"




isnt that exactly what t/a attempts to do


----------



## Joules MM1 (17 July 2012)

sinner said:


> "fitting dynamism into neat boxes"




and isnt the art of fading the faders sometimes via t/a cos i know where and when some groups of traders will come into the game to play their little boxes.......so how does that make t/a wrong....it doesnt, it merely frames a period of activity......how well a trader understands that part of the auction activity is the key not the t/a itself as t/a is just an overlay.......sometimes its a cover-up for lack of understanding and that's exactly how faders get faded


----------



## CanOz (17 July 2012)

Using some levels from the past and today, this is one of the trades i took today...Still in it for now...

CanOz


----------



## CanOz (17 July 2012)

In on another pullback, but a bit late. Now its at the HOD again, a fail could see another test lower, but its holding the sellers for now...


----------



## CanOz (17 July 2012)

Failed the high test, waited for a pause before getting short.


----------



## CanOz (17 July 2012)

Well i got into a few better quality trades today but i still caught myself over-trading again towards the end of the Asian session. 

Cheers,


CanOz


----------



## Trembling Hand (17 July 2012)

CanOz said:


> Well i got into a few better quality trades today but i still caught myself over-trading again towards the end of the Asian session.
> 
> Cheers,
> 
> ...




Not chasing ghosts in the DOM?


----------



## CanOz (17 July 2012)

Trembling Hand said:


> Not chasing ghosts in the DOM?




You are a mind reader TH...

I was fine until i missed an entry and started do just that. 

Today was the first time in a long while that i traded the HSI during the EUR opening range. IT really looks different on the DOM, how to you adjust for it? Actually it looks sort of like the DAX, makes sense i guess. 

CanOz


----------



## Trembling Hand (17 July 2012)

CanOz said:


> You are a mind reader TH...
> 
> I was fine until i missed an entry and started do just that.
> 
> ...




Yeah its very flicky around the DAX cash open. Best to not look at it :hide: or mentally pick some S/R and fade if you really need to hit it


----------



## CanOz (18 July 2012)

This is the trade that i need to learn to wait for in my view. Once the area that i want to trade in is in play then i can use a few bullets. 

Typically i use too many bullets trading in areas where i have no business, as i did this morning. I have highlighted the areas where prices were quickly dismissed before in blue and the pink indicates an area where i should not trade....It is ONLY these blue areas that i want to trade, no option. I need to drill that into my head. These areas offer the best probability that price will move quickly, compared to the pink area which will results in choppy trading. 


CanOz


----------



## CanOz (18 July 2012)

DAX homework...here are the areas where i will look for trade opps on the DAX today...

If we GAP up i'll need to stand aside as i have little history above these levels.

Cheers,


CanOz


----------



## CanOz (20 July 2012)

Here's my simple plan for the DAX today.

High levels:
6816
*6800*
6785
*6775*
6755

Low numbers:
6740
6730
*6725*
6710
6700

Above 6755 we'll look to fade a move into 6775. If we look to break then we'll let it break and look for a pullback in support. 

Below 6755, if the market tests these levels we'll look to fade the move back up into 6755. If the fade doesn't look like it will fly, then we'll let it break and look to sell a pullback.We could get a gap fill back to 6761, but we should expect a stall at 6755.

Cheers,


CanOz


----------



## CanOz (20 July 2012)

Well well, first trade went to plan....got the first two and the third was stopped out...now waiting again.


----------



## sinner (20 July 2012)

CanOz said:


> Well well, first trade went to plan....got the first two and the third was stopped out...now waiting again.




Good stuff. 

Why the Heiken Ashi out of curiosity? Just trying to get me curious? :


----------



## CanOz (20 July 2012)

sinner said:


> Good stuff.
> 
> Why the Heiken Ashi out of curiosity? Just trying to get me curious? :




Word is, its good for beginners....your supposed to take the trade on a close above the first opposite candle...but honestly i would have given 2.5 points using that...I just watched the DOM and the volume ladder to see the buyers take control...Heiken Ashi is lagging of course. The DOM was way earlier....a 'longshot'


----------



## sinner (20 July 2012)

CanOz said:


> Word is, its good for beginners....your supposed to take the trade on a close above the first opposite candle...but honestly i would have given 2.5 points using that...I just watched the DOM and the volume ladder to see the buyers take control...Heiken Ashi is lagging of course. The DOM was way earlier....a 'longshot'




HAClose is just (H+L+C)/3, if I recall correctly. HAHigh can be a variety of things depending, again if I recall correctly. 

I think the way this will be actually useful to you for fading at flat lines (because it's a trend following signal) is to drop to a lower timeframe looking for the entry trigger. Even in that case break of the previous (1 or 2) bar high/low is a better entry trigger IMHO than using HA for this type of trade. 

Otherwise as you noticed you give up the points and as TH likes to say you will always be "waiting for confirmation" so harder to enter limits expecting a good fill.


----------



## CanOz (20 July 2012)

sinner said:


> I think the way this will be actually useful to you for fading at flat lines (because it's a trend following signal) is to drop to a lower timeframe looking for the entry trigger.




My 1 minute is my lower timeframe...the lowest that i use.

The worst part is if i take it off i need to reload the chart, its totally f'kd up 

Actually it worked ok, they recommend renko, range or HA...for the entry chart. 

CanOz


----------



## sinner (21 July 2012)

CanOz said:


> My 1 minute is my lower timeframe...the lowest that i use.
> 
> The worst part is if i take it off i need to reload the chart, its totally f'kd up
> 
> ...




Range I could understand since it's a little more 'auction' oriented like simple PnF rules, but dunno about how robust renko (due to starting close price chosen) and HA (due to how robust is the 'avg' price of a 1 min bar as entry?) would be in this case.

Who is they?


----------



## cudderbean (21 July 2012)

I downloaded this off the net a few months ago. The bloke did not seem to be selling anything...well,maybe he was, but it was so low pressure it went over my head.

10 Days to Better Emini Trading

http://emini-watch.com/better-emini-trading/

I gleaned a few ideas from it anyway. One thing that he said which may fit your intended trading style is that he just trades about an hour a day quite intensely and completely distraction free, makes a few points, then quits to enjoy his non work time which is after all what it's all about.

I dont quite agree with that myself..if you're on a roll, why not stick around to pyramid up...let your profits run and cut your losses short. 

I live in Thailand most of the year, and the time zone and my lifestyle is not conducive to waking up at 5am to prepare myself for the market when I just got to bed at 3am, so I rely on OCO orders to take some of the emotion out of the loop... and allow me my beauty sleep...and crikey do I need it.  hehe

Good luck, mate.


----------



## CanOz (23 July 2012)

Got into a couple of fades at the high of the range this morning, the last one worked out in full but the first one got stopped out at even on the last two contracts. Planned and executed and for the first time EVER on Sim I've had a profitable morning....lets see if we can have a profitable week of SIM trading before i need to return to real work!



CanOz


----------



## CanOz (23 July 2012)

This was the last trade for the day. Had to wait and wait for this one. 6500 was reliable.

Cheers,


CanOz


----------



## CanOz (24 July 2012)

cudderbean said:


> I downloaded this off the net a few months ago. The bloke did not seem to be selling anything...well,maybe he was, but it was so low pressure it went over my head.
> 
> 10 Days to Better Emini Trading
> 
> ...




Thanks Bean!


----------



## CanOz (24 July 2012)

One trade on the HSI today, 1 loser. Lesson, stay in the trade. I second guessed my decision because Europe was opening...in hindsight i should have just not taken the trade around the EUR open.

CanOz


----------



## CanOz (24 July 2012)

Took me two goes to get the fade on this one...done for the day on the DAX. I'll play around on the NT sim unless i see another opportunity that's just too good to pass up.


----------



## CanOz (25 July 2012)

Really going to have to kiss this market good bye..,Got caught trading the HSI in the middle of the value area (chop) totally against my religion...

Ruined a nice sunny morning...


----------



## ThingyMajiggy (25 July 2012)

Nearly hit my daily stop trying to trade our rubbish tonight, so I go back on sim and make over $3K stacking the book in the dax with basically no drawdown. Go figure, definitely seem to get on better with fast markets. What I do differently on sim vs live I have no idea, nail everything on sim, not even doing unrealistic size or anything like that, perfectly realistic trading, yet can't get a tick when I'm live. Talk about


----------



## CanOz (25 July 2012)

ThingyMajiggy said:


> Nearly hit my daily stop trying to trade our rubbish tonight, so I go back on sim and make over $3K stacking the book in the dax with basically no drawdown. Go figure, definitely seem to get on better with fast markets. What I do differently on sim vs live I have no idea, nail everything on sim, not even doing unrealistic size or anything like that, perfectly realistic trading, yet can't get a tick when I'm live. Talk about




I did the same thing with the HSI today, racked up over 6000 HKD in less than an hour, switched to IB SIM and lost 5000HKD. Then on the DAX i was up a couple of hundred on IB SIM and then bloody NT freezes up on my while in a trade and i get taken to the f**-*in cleaners while i restart.....WTF????


----------



## ThingyMajiggy (25 July 2012)

CanOz said:


> I did the same thing with the HSI today, racked up over 6000 HKD in less than an hour, switched to IB SIM and lost 5000HKD. Then on the DAX i was up a couple of hundred on IB SIM and then bloody NT freezes up on my while in a trade and i get taken to the f**-*in cleaners while i restart.....WTF????




It's ridiculous, uncanny how it works out, can literally nail it when I'm on sim, yet all I see is red when I'm live. If only I could figure out the missing link that seems to be there when I'm on sim, but not when I'm live. Fear maybe? Don't think about things too much, just be in the market all the time? Who knows.


----------



## Trembling Hand (25 July 2012)

ThingyMajiggy said:


> It's ridiculous, uncanny how it works out, can literally nail it when I'm on sim, yet all I see is red when I'm live. If only I could figure out the missing link that seems to be there when I'm on sim, but not when I'm live. Fear maybe? Don't think about things too much, just be in the market all the time? Who knows.




Only take the trades that you don't want to enter.


----------



## Joules MM1 (25 July 2012)

ThingyMajiggy said:


> It's ridiculous, uncanny how it works out, can literally nail it when I'm on sim, yet all I see is red when I'm live. If only I could figure out the missing link that seems to be there when I'm on sim, but not when I'm live. Fear maybe? Don't think about things too much, just be in the market all the time? Who knows.




one thing to try is to move your time horizon out when youre in sim mode and as soon as your set-up shows or how you profile a trade then go into the live trade, reduce size further and dont look at the money side until the end of the day or you quit the session....... just get more pos trades.....good luck, Sam


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## ThingyMajiggy (26 July 2012)

Yeah thanks guys. 

I'm trying to get some sim access for honkers to see how I get on, definitely seem to get on better with the faster markets, I can watch it now but still waiting for actual trading access, looks like fun!  fade central? Makes a new low by 4 ticks then immediately rallies about 65 ticks lol. 

All I can think about while I'm watching it is TH saying "it moves in a chaotic fashion". Not wrong!


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## CanOz (26 July 2012)

Honkers....Choppy enough for y'all this morning?

I've got to stay off the HSI until i can find the discipline to only take trades away from the value area. 

Its just noise...

CanOz


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## ThingyMajiggy (26 July 2012)

CanOz said:


> Honkers....Choppy enough for y'all this morning?
> 
> I've got to stay off the HSI until i can find the discipline to only take trades away from the value area.
> 
> ...




Do you read the flow much with honkers? Like that 100 lot before at 862, had a tiny pop when it got taken out but doesn't seem like anything tradeable from it, seems to be lots of 14-15 lots popping up all the time. Probably more bang for buck in fading?


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## CanOz (26 July 2012)

ThingyMajiggy said:


> Do you read the flow much with honkers? Like that 100 lot before at 862, had a tiny pop when it got taken out but doesn't seem like anything tradeable from it, seems to be lots of 14-15 lots popping up all the time. Probably more bang for buck in fading?




Yeah its all over the place. That's why i use a volume ladder with it and the DAX, its easier to see the absorption. 

I think TH keeps one in his mind...

The only thing i've had any measure of success with is fading on the HSI...

Its one crazy market. On a plus, its good training for the DAX.

CanOz


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## Trembling Hand (26 July 2012)

CanOz said:


> Yeah its all over the place. That's why i use a volume ladder with it and the DAX, its easier to see the absorption.




It is different to the other Asian markets because its still opened for two hours once the DAX opens. That gives it many different stages during the day. From Open into Asia lunch, Asia close and then Euro open. Mostly it will put in a quick high and low range within the first bit of chaos. Then its just going to flop around till the DAX games begin.

Can what the hell is that chart?


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## bullet21 (26 July 2012)

CanOz said:


> Yeah its all over the place. That's why i use a volume ladder with it and the DAX, its easier to see the absorption.
> 
> I think TH keeps one in his mind...
> 
> ...




Hey guys, im just about to open an IB account and start sim trading. Are you using Level II data for the DOM or does it come with the level I as well. Also how does Ninjatrader do for order entry?


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## CanOz (26 July 2012)

Trembling Hand said:


> It is different to the other Asian markets because its still opened for two hours once the DAX opens. That gives it many different stages during the day. From Open into Asia lunch, Asia close and then Euro open. Mostly it will put in a quick high and low range within the first bit of chaos. Then its just going to flop around till the DAX games begin.
> 
> Can what the hell is that chart?




Good point...unless there is any big news of course. So you're pretty much banking on a range day (up until the DAX open) absent of much volatility unless there is news?

The DAX open is normally pretty boring as well, until London opens. Some of the first hours H/L's are trade-able as well, worth noting anyway.

CanOz


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## CanOz (26 July 2012)

I got the first fade of the low, then got stopped out and missed the second and most successful...that's the one TH probably waited for .


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## Trembling Hand (26 July 2012)

CanOz said:


> I got the first fade of the low, then got stopped out and missed the second and most successful...that's the one TH probably waited for .




hardly. This is what my trading feels like today........


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## Joules MM1 (26 July 2012)

Trembling Hand said:


> hardly. This is what my trading feels like today........
> 
> 
> View attachment 48155




oh yeah......3 parts today: _balls, blender, high speed_ .......


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## CanOz (26 July 2012)

Joules MM1 said:


> oh yeah......3 parts today: _balls, blender, high speed_ .......




hmmm, choppy yeah?

If I trade between those two goal posts on my blog I'm going to do a keyboard smash with my head!!!


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## Sir Osisofliver (27 July 2012)

Hi CanOz,

I'll start by saying I'm not a Futs trader. But I think that this is a *really* good habit to get into for any trader, especially one where the method is highly discretionary.  Generally we're so busy doing the activity, we never get time to think about it, and review is a very important process. It's the same principle as a professional athlete recording an activity and watching to see where an improvement can occur.

What I do when I test a new methodology is have two in-trays. Good and Bad, Profit and Loss, call them whatever you want.  Every X number of trades (I usually use 50) I spend an hour so reviewing what happened.  By doing so I can see patterns in my own behaviour (or the system).  This may help you to determine why *you* are exiting or entering too soon and adjust your behaviour.

Good Luck and Cheers

Sir O


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## CanOz (27 July 2012)

Sir Osisofliver said:


> Hi CanOz,
> 
> I'll start by saying I'm not a Futs trader. But I think that this is a *really* good habit to get into for any trader, especially one where the method is highly discretionary.  Generally we're so busy doing the activity, we never get time to think about it, and review is a very important process. It's the same principle as a professional athlete recording an activity and watching to see where an improvement can occur.
> 
> ...




Thanks Sir O, great advice, and i review what works and what doesn't at the end of each session. If I'm on the fence with something i test it some more...long process!!

Cheers,


CanOz


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## CanOz (27 July 2012)

Well the verdict is in, its been an unprofitable week, again. Although tempted to throw in the towel completely, I'll continue to trade on SIM until the end of August. By that time i will probably be back in the workforce anyway. Maybe after another couple of years I'll give it a try again intra-day. 

For now its back to work, while continuing with the system trading.

Cheers,


CanOz


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