# Define Doom and Gloom posters



## explod (5 January 2008)

On many financial forums, particularly the Gold thread, the tag of doom and gloom is increasingly attached to posters who put up arguments that are bearish to the popular enthusiasms, status quo or the so called Wall Street spin.

It is well established that to be successful one needs a positive outlook and to assert that in all that is said and done.   In one word at management school we were taught to be "objective"

In the world today we seem to have reached a point of financial tension and with it of course fear as the downside.  Financial uncertainty flies in the face of everything we have learnt about positives arising out of positives.

I have always followed the optimist mode, I was born that way but my take of the last few years has been to question those norms.   If disaster is to come then I want to know everything about it all so that by being prepared I can find a path of continued success.   So for example, I am optimistic about the opportunities in gold, oil, alternative energies et. al.

For over 7 years now, I have learned to question financial advisers, government and bank industry reports and the popular press because I have found them to be wanting.   IFollowing that  line I would be described as a doomsayer.

Does the term "Doom and Gloom"  put you off ? 

Could it be that being optimistic is the total solution to all things?

Is it bad carma just to speak of the subject?


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## wavepicker (5 January 2008)

Hello explod,

you do what is best for your own interests and don't worry if others classify you as a doomsdayer. Look after you own economy first, if you don't take control of your own fiannces then nobody else will.



explod said:


> For over 7 years now, I have learned to question financial advisers, government and bank industry reports and the popular press because I have found them to be wanting.   IFollowing that  line I would be described as a doomsayer.




Absolutely not, the problem is that most economists get it wrong because they regurgitate and project the last 12 months worth of data into the next 12 momths. Nine out of ten are usually wrong on a regular basis and I always felt that by trying to understand charts, time cycles, and sentiment that better is possible.

I am no different to you explod, the only place I differ is that I beleive Oil and Gold will soon turn bearish(within a few months) of the stock markets turning bearish. The only safe place will be cash. However Gold and precious metals will be the first to recover following a bearish period

Just my 2c worth

Cheers


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## explod (5 January 2008)

wavepicker said:


> Hello explod,
> 
> you do what is best for your own interests and don't worry if others classify you as a doomsdayer. Look after you own economy first, if you don't take control of your own fiannces then nobody else will.
> 
> ...




Not the object of the thread, but curious as to your combined take on gold and oil.   Oil yes, as and if things go very bad oil will drop.   But cash holding for other than a short time could be suicide the way money is increasingly only backed by debt.   Have you had a good look at the long term charts of the US dollar and the gold price, they mirror each other in the opposing directions. (last five years)  And in all the other recent times 1880, 1930 and 1980 the exact same things has happened and gold was always the good stalwart.   

I'll call this 0ne and a half cents


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## ithatheekret (5 January 2008)

I've done my share of 101 courses and half the time I don't know where they pull the rabbits from , so I can only presume they read different data to me , either that or their Kelloggs specials and got their degrees out of the box .

I read a couple of nice books one by a bloke called Greenspan , he went on to head up some US dept. somewhere , then changed tact for some reason and started blowing it out his a%#@ .

Then came a solid view of public service ...... I slowly started to understand the jargon , which in itself , was a miracle . But the back speak and blowflies are policy allegience . He had clearly stated I'm on their side , they're paying my bills , I could relate to that .
The trick is to keep repeating the same storyline over and over until you , either convince them , or completely confuse them . 

It's a matter of linguistics and the plot is in the syntax . Mathematical realism is not a part of his structure and after reading his book and watching this man in motion , I ask " will the real Mr. Greenspan please stand up " .

The ones that can't manage their linguistics on the matter , are the ones that usually resort to slanging abuse or belittling and labelling , this is a form of allegience . But , to whom .

If I wanted to hear bleeps , I can venture into any paddock north of my place for that . Those who can't decide what is happening in front of their noses and rely on the paper , t.v., or some other pay per view , goodluck .

The AFR use to be a bible , now its only good for Pierpont , the only class and style it has left . CNBC , if you watch that and don't get a better laugh than you would from English comedy , your'e in a bad way . I wouldn't miss a minute of the US shows , they crack me up .

I've never heard so many ways to go baaaa baaaa baaaa . Now is the time to buy or you'll miss out they were quoting . Any bets we see new people on the screen due to a batch of holidays , spruiking is hard work .


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## wavepicker (5 January 2008)

explod said:


> Have you had a good look at the long term charts of the US dollar and the gold price, they mirror each other in the opposing directions. (last five years)  And in all the other recent times 1880, 1930 and 1980 the exact same things has happened and gold was always the good stalwart.
> 
> I'll call this 0ne and a half cents




That's right explod they _tend_ to mirror themselves in opposing directions. It seems you are becoming the like the bankers and economists and projecting past trends into the future. What we need to know are the  probabilities of posible scenarios of what might happen. Just because a trend has been in place for the last 5 years is not guarrantee it will continue. 

Not sure about 1880, but in 1930 POG was fixed. Silver which usually precedes POG was not and it too tanked alongside everything else, but was the first to recover after.
As for 1980, the USD Index had already bottomed(did so in 1978/9) and was already trending up in 1980. (see chart)

I stand by the Gold analysis I made a few days ago that it's currently toward the end of it's fifth wave. The preceding wave (contracting triangle wave 4) is my clue to this just as it was in May 2006.


Cheers


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## Uncle Festivus (5 January 2008)

Doom & gloom? Well it's a bit gloomy for sure, the doom part is yet to enforce itself with any clarity - yet.

Rather, posters who get 'boxed' into a category maybe trying to look at things in perspective & balance, indifferent to bobble headed money shuffler yes men's 'professional' opinions, and weighing up and acting apon the data as presented. 

We all like to be re-assured in our financial judgements, so we look to others for confirmation of our actions, part of the herd perhaps, but if the leaders of the herd are telling us one thing and reality is something the opposite then we should ask WHY. They are most surely looking out for number 1, which doesn't happen to be YOU or I.

Do the hard work, do the research, find out WHY, and don't rely on anyone else except yourself.


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## dhukka (5 January 2008)

ithatheekret said:


> I've done my share of 101 courses and half the time I don't know where they pull the rabbits from , so I can only presume they read different data to me , either that or their Kelloggs specials and got their degrees out of the box .
> 
> I read a couple of nice books one by a bloke called Greenspan , he went on to head up some US dept. somewhere , then changed tact for some reason and started blowing it out his a%#@ .
> 
> ...





Great post,

Agreed on the CNBC muppets. You know things are bad when Larry Kudlow looks like he's about to have an embolism while he repeats the mantra of "goldilocks is alive and well, invest in America the greatest country in the world blah blah blah. change the record Larry.


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## explod (5 January 2008)

wavepicker said:


> That's right explod they _tend_ to mirror themselves in opposing directions. It seems you are becoming the like the bankers and economists and projecting past trends into the future. What we need to know are the  probabilities of posible scenarios of what might happen. Just because a trend has been in place for the last 5 years is not guarrantee it will continue.
> 
> Not sure about 1880, but in 1930 POG was fixed. Silver which usually precedes POG was not and it too tanked alongside everything else, but was the first to recover after.
> As for 1980, the USD Index had already bottomed(did so in 1978/9) and was already trending up in 1980. (see chart)
> ...




Take your point, I see the waves as fish hooks,  the first good one 05 to 06, the next a short one to the peak of 06 and the current one from that peak is just turning up and in exponential proportion (which seems to be the trend/volatility factor)should not play out till it hits about US$11500.   Looks clearer on the 10 year chart.

The trend line of the chart is getting towards 40 degrees but for a time prior to the 1980 peak it was at 60 degrees before the top blowoff.   I think we have a long way to go yet on this.  And as you know we could talk all day of the fundamentals.


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## tech/a (5 January 2008)

*Waves*



> The only safe place will be cash.




And inflation will take care of that.

Would not taking to the *Short*--Dark side be seriously considered!
after all a stone falls quicker and further than it rises/bounces.


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## wavepicker (5 January 2008)

tech/a said:


> *Waves*
> 
> 
> 
> ...





For traders ABSOLUTELY, and that will be our goal and challenge this year!!


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## ithatheekret (5 January 2008)

When we were little we learnt how to walk all by ourselves , as we developed we started thinking for ourselves . Some clearly still do , some have become *lazy* and expect it to be as easy as the investment ads say .

Lack of initiative , gullibilities , not cross referencing , I could go on , but why be negative on what I already know is wrong ..............

You must contribute to your own wealth creation and preservation yourself period or some pimple faced youngster will fat finger your money away or blow it on a disproportionate instrument , in a market or vehicle you know nothing about .
I may hate driving and be driven about at times , but my skills are always in the backseat , so to speak , right with me and the driver .

What makes anyone think that someone who is preserving their wealth will willingly help you do the same ? 

There has to be a catch or cost somewhere .

When I go down to town , I see a lot of people I know , but if I owe that person money the first thing I think , is I owe that one . If they owe me , the first thing I think is they owe me . Understand this , I'm not thinking of their wealth dispensation , I'm thinking about mine .

When it comes to opinions well , I like the start of some of my youngest sons games by EA .

*CHALLENGE EVERYTHING*

When you find a group of individuals who think like you , share the thoughts ,  build on the concepts and debate the answers , this is called collective intelligence and it works . 

Those that believe and follow the spin to me are a collective unconscious , who have inherited a costly trait . These are the ones that will hear , believe in the long run and believe it . 

Believe me , if you do , you'll just end up making someone elses Porsche payment .

Your stocks don't love you , why love them back ?

The brokers love you !


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## sam76 (5 January 2008)

ithatheekret said:


> Your stocks don't love you , why love them back ?




Very wise words that need to be revisited from time to time.


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## Uncle Festivus (5 January 2008)

wavepicker said:


> The only safe place will be cash. However Gold and precious metals will be the first to recover following a bearish period






tech/a said:


> And inflation will take care of that.




Getting a bit off topic, maybe should start a thread, but in a real doom scenario maybe real physical cash will be rare, assuming some sort of Northern Rock repeat globally. The skill will then be knowing when to withdraw real cash from the bank, after we cash in all those gold shares .


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## ghost108 (5 January 2008)

Doom and gloom has never been taboo, save for those who continue to deny the possibility that it exists.  I don't know how long market commentators have been spouting "the US should still avoid a recession."  I think a reality check keeps us honest and its not a crime to be opportunistic in such circumstances.

I totally agree with your optimism; we've all heard "look on the bright side of life."  It is this attitude which help people succeed through the tough times.  When the dust settles from each of these seemingly vicious recurring scenarios, these people are the ones left standing.  What we want to celebrate is optimism which has free thought underpinning it, not blind optimism.

Great opportunists are not put off by Doom and Gloom, they're licking their lips.

*ithatheekret* (how do you pronounce that ?) rightly sums it up "CHALLENGE EVERYTHING".


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## ithatheekret (5 January 2008)

ghost108 said:


> Doom and gloom has never been taboo, save for those who continue to deny the possibility that it exists.  I don't know how long market commentators have been spouting "the US should still avoid a recession."  I think a reality check keeps us honest and its not a crime to be opportunistic in such circumstances.
> 
> I totally agree with your optimism; we've all heard "look on the bright side of life."  It is this attitude which help people succeed through the tough times.  When the dust settles from each of these seemingly vicious recurring scenarios, these people are the ones left standing.  What we want to celebrate is optimism which has free thought underpinning it, not blind optimism.
> 
> ...





Hi Ghost , the username came about when I asked my youngest daughter and friends what username and pass I should use . One promptly replied , " I can't tell you that , ith a theekret and you can't tell anyone .

I liked it and adopted it .


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## explod (5 January 2008)

tech/a said:


> *Waves*
> 
> 
> 
> ...




Good point, the dark side is gloom and doom also.   Sorry I missed Wavepickers main point above (was being called by the best half to go up the street)  because I tend only to look at longer term trends and realise that very short term changes to trends is a very different ballgame.

Perhaps the Doom and Gloom thingo is related to misunderstanding sometimes.  (being distracted by a trade or to help take the washing to the line)

And of course charts fall away very much faster, recent Centro.   But major news drives those things. which is why I have a biased ear to fundamentals, which in my current focus, tell me gold is well supported and generally in a  confirmed uptrend.

Cheers explod


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## So_Cynical (5 January 2008)

We all have 1 thing in common...we are investors and as investors we
need to take a position, many factors can lead to that position and 
after u have put your money down comes the self reassurance that u 
have done the right thing.

If u went long your optimistic and enthusiastic.
If u went short your a doom and gloomer.


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## bvbfan (5 January 2008)

ithatheekret said:


> CNBC , if you watch that and don't get a better laugh than you would from English comedy , your'e in a bad way . I wouldn't miss a minute of the US shows , they crack me up .




Can't disagree with the US CNBC crowd. Krudlow will have to be the gauge for bears to exit.

Europeans are actually pretty good and Rick Santelli


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## chops_a_must (5 January 2008)

bvbfan said:


> Europeans are actually pretty good and Rick Santelli




Rick Santelli rocks.

What was his call last night? "One of my last trades was in 1980 to buy gold at these levels. So, after 28 years, gold remains unchanged!"

It's interesting to see him just become even more cynical as he's been proven correct. Some of the idiots on there, should apologise to him. Or at least buy him a beer. I would if I saw him!


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## dhukka (5 January 2008)

chops_a_must said:


> Rick Santelli rocks.
> 
> What was his call last night? "One of my last trades was in 1980 to buy gold at these levels. So, after 28 years, gold remains unchanged!"
> 
> It's interesting to see him just become even more cynical as he's been proven correct. Some of the idiots on there, should apologise to him. Or at least buy him a beer. I would if I saw him!




Love Rick Santelli, keeps the bastards honest. I find it amusing how the first question out of the rest of the muppets mouth when negative data comes out is; "Yes but what are the positives in this release?" Dennis Neal is an absolute clown out of his depth, Krudlow (like that one chops) is the perfect example of the frightened permabull in denial who can only make his points by bullying and talking over the top of others. 

I imagine 100 years ago types like Krudlow would be wearing sheets and pointy white hats galloing across the country with burning crosses.


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## chops_a_must (5 January 2008)

dhukka said:


> Love Rick Santelli, keeps the bastards honest. I find it amusing how the first question out of the rest of the muppets mouth when negative data comes out is; "Yes but what are the positives in this release?" Dennis Neal is an absolute clown out of his depth, Krudlow (like that one chops) is the perfect example of the frightened permabull in denial who can only make his points by bullying and talking over the top of others.
> 
> I imagine 100 years ago types like Krudlow would be wearing sheets and pointy white hats galloing across the country with burning crosses.




Like it? I've adopted it into my signature. 

Kudlow and these sort of guys... well... their arguments are totally illogical, and make absolutely no sense. Even to a non-economist type like me, I can see they make no sense. The secret to a good argument is for it to be explainable to someone not versed in such things, which it has failed to do.

His words, actions (and perhaps forehead sweat) to me would indicate he has bought at the top, and hasn't got the balls to move. Looks like he is about to cry half the time these days. Lol! He's lost any krudability he ever had I think. Couldn't have happened to a nicer bloke.


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## wayneL (6 January 2008)

tech/a said:


> And inflation will take care of that.



Unless there is deflation, but admittedly that looks like a fairly remote possibility atm.


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## dhukka (6 January 2008)

IMO deflation is a big possibility in 2008, but before we get there we have to go through the obligatory stagflation, which is just the transition period from a normal inflationary environment to deflation. Financial asset prices are already deflating, commodities I believe (admittedly without much evidence) are on their last legs. That is to say that the long run bullmarket in commodities is still in tact but a global growth slowdown will depress prices in the short term.


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## wayneL (6 January 2008)

dhukka said:


> IMO deflation is a big possibility in 2008,



Maybe northern hemisphere CB's think so too, hence the competition to see who can cut rates the fastest.


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## GreatPig (6 January 2008)

So if asset prices are likely to fall, commodities are looking like falling, and cash may be eroded by inflation (unless there's deflation...) - and maybe lower interest rates reducing income from cash(?) ...

what then is the best _passive_ thing to be in to try and maintain (or preferably increase) real-term net worth during this period?

Okay, maybe one can make a fortune from the judicious trading of various instruments, or running some other good business, but for someone just wanting to put their money somewhere relatively safe to weather the potential storm?

Cheers,
GP


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## numbercruncher (6 January 2008)

All I hope is that our RBA sticks to the game plan of achieving low and stable inflation over the medium term, ie/ Keeps raising rates in the current high Inflation enviroment ....


Read a good piece of advice from an American trader the other day who had been burnt several times over the same theme, " Never Bet against the Fed " - He was saying what they should do and what they actually do do , can be two different things.

I beleive the US has a bit of a track record of Inflating away its debts/obligations.


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## explod (27 January 2008)

numbercruncher said:


> All I hope is that our RBA sticks to the game plan of achieving low and stable inflation over the medium term, ie/ Keeps raising rates in the current high Inflation enviroment ....
> 
> 
> Read a good piece of advice from an American trader the other day who had been burnt several times over the same theme, " Never Bet against the Fed " - He was saying what they should do and what they actually do do , can be two different things.
> ...




Yes this coming week will be interesting.  The Fed drop of .75 basis points has put them between a rock and a hard place by all accounts.  The market (Wall St) seems to expect/damands a further cut but to do so leaves little room for later in the year.  In market terms we still have a long way to the US Presidential contest.    So we should expect the PPT and Spin Doctors to come up with something big this next few weeks  or the big sink will start.

Maybe ?????

Any further weaknes in the US$ will see gold go to very high levels but feel sure the US do not want the sheeple to catch on to that too much just yet either.

Interesting times indeed  ?????


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## Smurf1976 (27 January 2008)

In my experience it comes down to background information and in depth study versus a shallow glance at the present situation.

It's no secret that I've long predicted a run up in oil prices, for example. Doom and gloom according to many. But in reality I just knew something that most hadn't then realised - supply capacity hasn't been increasing to match demand for a couple of decades now and it was inevitable that sooner or later the crunch would come. That plus the geological factors which limit the ability to increase supply.

Centro would be another classic example. It's not a company I know much about. But anyone who had done enough research would presumably have been aware that the company faced serious risks. Doom and gloom maybe, I prefer to call it knowledge.

The worst thing you can do in most situations in life is to deny the truth. If it's losing money, rusting away, leaking, overheating, wearing out, diseased or some other problem is lurking that's not immediately obvious then the sooner you know the better.

It's a lot better to sell your stocks in a company that's going broke before the market wakes up to the fact. Just as it's a lot better to fix the car's brakes before they fail. And it's a lot cheaper and far less hassle to fix the lights before a city building burns to the ground in a spectacular inferno.

But you're not likely to sell the stocks, fix the brakes or the lights if you don't realise there's a problem. Stocks go down at times during a bull market. Squealing brakes aren't always about to fail. A faulty light doesn't normally warrant calling the fire brigade. But sometimes they do and if there's a significant risk that you wouldn't normally expect then you're better off knowing about it before something crashes or burns.

Doom and gloom? I'd say it's more a case of looking at reality and ignoring the "feel good" nonsense that surrounds us all every day. If the news is good then that's great. If not then the sooner reality is faced, the better the likely outcome.


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## explod (31 January 2008)

Smurf1976 said:


> In my experience it comes down to background information and in depth study versus a shallow glance at the present situation.
> 
> It's no secret that I've long predicted a run up in oil prices, for example. Doom and gloom according to many. But in reality I just knew something that most hadn't then realised - supply capacity hasn't been increasing to match demand for a couple of decades now and it was inevitable that sooner or later the crunch would come. That plus the geological factors which limit the ability to increase supply.
> 
> ...




Thanks Smurf for your well thought out explanation.

So there seems to be some consensus that the so called Doom and Gloom posters are in effect shining a guiding light.

Very many DAG posts have correctly anticipated the absolute mayhem and confusion now enveloping Wall Street.

Thanks to all contributors.  The DAG posters can continue to spread the word and flourish towards saving the ASF members.  

Perhaps a little help from Big Chief burnin Bush, cause he made us see most of the red lights in the first place.

What is likely to happen when you run a red light  ???????????????


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## nioka (31 January 2008)

explod said:


> Very many DAG posts have correctly anticipated the absolute mayhem and confusion now enveloping Wall Street.




It has been said before, can I say it again, "A BROKEN CLOCK IS RIGHT TWICE A DAY'


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## Kauri (31 January 2008)

nioka said:


> It has been said before, can I say it again, "A BROKEN CLOCK IS RIGHT TWICE A DAY'




 Unless it's an American clock in which case you may find the hour hand has fallen off..
Cheers
..........Kauri


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## wayneL (31 January 2008)

nioka said:


> It has been said before, can I say it again, "A BROKEN CLOCK IS RIGHT TWICE A DAY'



LOL. That old chestnut again?

The only thing the bears have misjudged is how long gu'mints and CBs have been able to keep all the plates spinning.' I'll certainly wear that criticism.

But the circumstances are playing out precisely as envisaged.

Cliches are... well, just cliches.


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## numbercruncher (31 January 2008)

And it seems that pesky clock has broke hands firmly stuck at that point in time that the pesky snifling jeering permabulls said would never happen, better get the Watchmaker out with his precision tools and expert eye, time is money as they say.

This time is different they hollored, an economic super cycle that would surely never end.

We have mastered capitalism they insisted, the money will never end, just buy an asset and watch it rise, well well arnt we in for a surprise.


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## nioka (31 January 2008)

numbercruncher said:


> And it seems that pesky clock has broke hands firmly stuck at that point in time that the pesky snifling jeering permabulls said would never happen, better get the Watchmaker out with his precision tools and expert eye, time is money as they say.
> 
> This time is different they hollored, an economic super cycle that would surely never end.
> 
> We have mastered capitalism they insisted, the money will never end, just buy an asset and watch it rise, well well arnt we in for a surprise.



 A permabull can survive the bear attacks. All you need is a flexable program. The bears create the confusion the old bull sorts the wheat from the chaff. Reminds me of a story about bulls.
 The old bull and the young bull were watching a mob of young heifers being moved into their paddock.
Young bull. "Let's race down and get one of those heifers."
Old bull. " Let's just wander down and get a few of those heifers."


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## explod (31 January 2008)

nioka said:


> A permabull can survive the bear attacks. All you need is a flexable program. The bears create the confusion the old bull sorts the wheat from the chaff. Reminds me of a story about bulls.
> The old bull and the young bull were watching a mob of young heifers being moved into their paddock.
> Young bull. "Let's race down and get one of those heifers."
> Old bull. " Let's just wander down and get a few of those heifers."





I heard it first 45 years ago now, and the last line then went "lets just walk down and .... the lot"

 On the other note, I like to think that some times I am bullish and at other times bearish.  All depends on what the market tells me.   But often get it wrong.

The reason for starting this thread is that some of us were being labelled DOG' ers for advacating an alternative view to the crap out of Wall Street and the popular fianacial oress in Australia.    Can't wait to hear Alan Cohler's take tonight.


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## Kauri (31 January 2008)

explod said:


> I heard it first 45 years ago now, and the last line then went "lets just walk down and .... the lot"
> 
> On the other note, I like to think that some times I am bullish and at other times bearish. All depends on what the market tells me. But often get it wrong.
> 
> The reason for starting this thread is that some of us were being labelled DOG' ers for advacating an alternative view to the crap out of Wall Street and the popular fianacial oress in Australia. *Can't wait to hear Alan Cohler's take tonight*.




Alan... please.. no referring to "profit-takers" and "bargain-hunters".. 
... appreciated
...............Kauri


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## Uncle Festivus (31 January 2008)

nioka said:


> A permabull can survive the bear attacks. All you need is a flexable program. The bears create the confusion the old bull sorts the wheat from the chaff. Reminds me of a story about bulls.
> The old bull and the young bull were watching a mob of young heifers being moved into their paddock.
> Young bull. "Let's race down and get one of those heifers."
> Old bull. " Let's just wander down and get a few of those heifers."




....and when they got there they found not heifers but cardboard cut-outs, masterfully painted by a renowned bullsh*t artist, Olde Farmer Bernanke. Bitterly disappointed at being mislead, they slowly wandered back to the artificial insemination shed, where Top Vet Paulson was eagerly waiting with gloved arm. 

Apon closer inspection, TV Paulson was shocked to find that the old bull was firing blanks and the young bull had only recently been emasculated by a group of frightened bankers.

TV Paulson was now faced with a dilemma - he had already promised the market that there was plenty to go around, and not to worry. Then he had a brilliant idea, but it would need more than he alone could provide. He motioned Olde Farmer Bernanke to the shed, and outlined his idea. 

So off they went, each eagerly helping the other until the vial was filled and rushed it to the market. But the market had expected more. They tried to explain that they had nothing more to give, but it only served to enrage the mob even more.
To be cont.....?


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## nioka (31 January 2008)

Uncle Festivus said:


> ....and when they got there they found not heifers but cardboard cut-outs, masterfully painted by a renowned bullsh*t artist, Olde Farmer Bernanke. Bitterly disappointed at being mislead, they slowly wandered back to the artificial insemination shed, where Top Vet Paulson was eagerly waiting with gloved arm.
> 
> Apon closer inspection, TV Paulson was shocked to find that the old bull was firing blanks and the young bull had only recently been emasculated by a group of frightened bankers.
> 
> ...



Great reply. I can't wait for the continuation.


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## Temjin (31 January 2008)

So_Cynical said:


> If u went long your optimistic and enthusiastic.
> If u went short your a doom and gloomer.




Heh I thought being long in gold means I am naturally a doom and gloomer. 

But excellent thread guys. I too sometime have trouble trying to hold the .. "doom and gloom" view to myself. It is definitely hard to remain realistic while the general herd would detest you as someone who is permissitic all the time and define you as an "ineffective" person.

I get that all the time when my colleagues talk about buying properties right now and I argue that this may not be a good time to do so. Then you know the typical reactions from them. 

Regardless, there is another excellent quote on this.

"You are either a contrarian or a victim".


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## explod (28 April 2008)

On another thread today (off topic) the subject of optimism versus doom and gloom was touched on.  It occurred to me that the philosophy of Management by Objectives was one pushed by the US itself to great effect.  From it arose the idea that by being positive there is virtually no hurdle too high.   And the cliches, "have a nice day"  etc.

I wonder at how much of this push, expand and leverage idea is the cause of our demise.   My Grandparents who came through the great depression were generally cautious, would not borrow money and some very pessimistic and suspiscious, in particular of men in suits.

Us doomsayers are said to be negative and it is inferred that it will  take us down.

I have formed a view over the last year or so  that it is perhaps time to be cautious but, as you all know a mad gold bug, my bit of optimism.

Interesting times, yes?


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