# What is your exit strategy?



## R0n1n (25 May 2007)

Just trying to find out what other people use as exit strategy ? I am still trying to get mine ironed out.. 
Do you use an indicator ? or a trailing stop loss. What persentage do u use ?


----------



## Sean K (25 May 2007)

*Re: what is ur exit strategy ?*



R0n1n said:


> Just trying to find out what other people use as exit strategy ? I am still trying to get mine ironed out..
> Do you use an indicator ? or a trailing stop loss. What persentage do u use ?



I started with a 20% gain but found I missed out on lots of potential gains when stocks just kept on going. I'm now totally discretionary. It depends on the stock and the market. I rarely sell all now after strong gains. Usually I'll sell a third or a half and then see how the stock goes after that. If it keeps going I might even top up again. I rarely enter 100% either. If I see an entry I might get in with just a third of what I would be aiming for with a total committment. If the trade is going OK then I'll add to the position. If it tanks, I sell and minimise loss. The problem with trading like this as a beginner is that you get attached to stocks and without strict rules you will hold stocks for longer than you should, expecting them to bounce back, or not lock in profits by becomming gready. The most important rule though with 'trading' is to not lose money. If a trade goes wrong, get out and save your cash for another day. In summary, I have a 'plan' for each stock I buy and write it down. Then amend as the situation develops. There is just too much to post into a single reply so I'll leave it there for now. I must say, not having a solid plan (like me) can lead to failure. The saying 'Plan your trade, and trade your plan', is a truism. This is not 'investing' of course, which is a whole other story.


----------



## R0n1n (25 May 2007)

*Re: what is ur exit strategy ?*

Kennas, thanx a lot for your reply. The problem is for Stop Loss I have 2% set as a hard rule, which means if a stock that I am trading takes a 2 % hit I am out, no questions. BUT, if a stock a going up I donno when it is finished its run and when its time to take profits and exit. Sometimes I exited early and others times I lost out cos I stuck too long with it.


----------



## Sean K (25 May 2007)

*Re: what is ur exit strategy ?*



R0n1n said:


> Kennas, thanx a lot for your reply. The problem is for Stop Loss I have 2% set as a hard rule, which means if a stock that I am trading takes a 2 % hit I am out, no questions. BUT, if a stock a going up I donno when it is finished its run and when its time to take profits and exit. Sometimes I exited early and others times I lost out cos I stuck too long with it.



2% seems a bit tight for a stop loss. 5-10% would be more the norm for a blue chip, and wider for a spec. You should probably adjust your stop as the sp goes up, to create a 'trailing stop'. Personally, I use support lines as a trailing stop. If a stock comes back down to support and it's breached, I exit and wait for another opportunity. This works OK with stocks conforming to support and resistance lines in a trending market, like the last 3 years, but during turbulance, this is much less reliable.


----------



## tech/a (26 May 2007)

*Re: what is ur exit strategy ?*



R0n1n said:


> Kennas, thanx a lot for your reply. The problem is for Stop Loss I have 2% set as a hard rule, which means if a stock that I am trading takes a 2 % hit I am out, no questions. BUT, if a stock a going up I donno when it is finished its run and when its time to take profits and exit. Sometimes I exited early and others times I lost out cos I stuck too long with it.




I think you maybe confusing Position size risk with Stop loss.
You can still only risk 2% of your trading capital and have a 20% stop on price.
Google *Fixed fractional position sizing.*


----------



## nizar (26 May 2007)

*Re: what is ur exit strategy ?*



tech/a said:


> I think you maybe confusing Position size risk with Stop loss.
> You can still only risk 2% of your trading capital and have a 20% stop on price.
> Google *Fixed fractional position sizing.*




I'll save him the time, does this sound familiar tech  

Fixed Fractional position sizing

Lets say for the example you have a capital base of $10,000
and you wish to trade a $1 stock with the lot.
You dont wish to risk more than 5% of your capital on the trade.
So maximum risk is $500.

You like the stock and think that a 5c stop would be best.
So $500/. 05c = 10000 so you CAN buy 10000 with a 5c stop no problem.

Lets say you think its going to fly so you only have a 2c stop.
so $500/.02c = 25000 so you could maintain the same $500 risk and invest in $25000 of shares had you the capital.

OK lets say you wish to use a wider stop can you still buy 10000 shares?
So $500/.20 = 2500 obviously no you cant you must buy 2500 ONLY to maintain the same 5% risk with a 20c stop.

So same maths applies to any position you take.

$15300 capital, 5% risk how many shares can I buy of a stock trading at $1.92c with an 18c stop?

$ at risk = 15300 x .05% = $765.
765/.18c = 4250 shares 4250 x $1.92 = $8160 so you can ONLY buy 4250 shares at an 18 cent risk to maintain the same 5% risk to capital.

Ill go further and talk about Reward to Risk or the R/R ratio.
If you buy and then sell the $1.92 stock for a 54 cent profit you have returned on that trade a 3:1 R/R ratio.
This is calculated by 54c (the profit)/18c (The risk) = 3 so 3 times the risk has been returned.
So if you win 2 out of 3 trades with this sort of R/R ratio then your doing well.


----------



## tech/a (26 May 2007)

Nizar.

You'll have a Doctorate in Position sizing if you keep that up.
Youve touched on more important information with regard to R/R.
As people can see the greater the R/R the less often you need to have a winning trade.
The smaller the R/R the more often you need a winning trade.
Longer term methodologies tend to have larger R/R ratios than shorter time frame.

Most fnd this boring until they come to realise (normally through losses or frustration of getting knowhere.) that profitable trading cannot be CONSISTENTLY found without correct application of those principles you have explained.

Nice work.


----------



## R0n1n (26 May 2007)

*Re: what is ur exit strategy ?*

thanx a lot Nizar. Its very helpful. Clears a lot of points. 

I'll explain my earlier question with an example. I had bought ZFX at 16.75 (green line on chart) and took an exit on 17.61 (red line on chart) . ZFX ofcourse went on to make it to 17.90 before finally turning around. 

Was there any indicator that would have told me to hang on to the ride ?


----------



## Chorlton (26 May 2007)

*Re: what is ur exit strategy ?*



R0n1n said:


> Kennas, thanx a lot for your reply. The problem is for Stop Loss I have 2% set as a hard rule, which means if a stock that I am trading takes a 2 % hit I am out, no questions. BUT, if a stock a going up I donno when it is finished its run and when its time to take profits and exit. Sometimes I exited early and others times I lost out cos I stuck too long with it.




The use of a fixed ratio for a stop-loss (in your case 2%) may not be the most effective method IMO. 

My view is that a Stop should be placed at a "logical" place on the chart (such as below recent support for example) rather than just based on a fixed percentage of the cost of the underlying share.

Once the stop has been placed, you can then calculate your Exit level & followed by your R:R, and then finally decide whether or not to enter the trade. 

Totally agree with others comments about Position Sizing. This should definately be based on a percentage of your overall capital.

Kind Regards,

Chorlton


----------



## motorway (26 May 2007)

*Re: what is ur exit strategy ?*



R0n1n said:


> thanx a lot Nizar. Its very helpful. Clears a lot of points.
> 
> I'll explain my earlier question with an example. I had bought ZFX at 16.75 (green line on chart) and took an exit on 17.61 (red line on chart) . ZFX ofcourse went on to make it to 17.90 before finally turning around.
> 
> Was there any indicator that would have told me to hang on to the ride ?




You want to profit from the trend
The trend is a series of higher highs and HIGHER LOWS

A good entry here was off the higher low above $16.50
That low by it shallowness demonstrated little overhead supply..

The next low where you exited was still a higher Low
It was still in an uptrend.. Notice the vol subsided...
However this low was a deeper and sharper
But still held above the halfway point of the rally

Still an uptrend ? Why sell ?

Next rally the last is the is the key...

The thrust ( The headway ) that rally makes is a lot less than the previous ones
The thrust has shortened and there is less Volume..

That last low was deeper and sharper . This last rally has less thrust and lower volume.... Maybe time to tighten stops ? or take profits ?

after the the top.. There is volume and the price moves past the halfway point of that last rally.... change of behavior is confirmed

Indicators can not know where in time the rally tops and reaction lows will occur ahead of time... 

So the Key is to have a 100% clear definition of trend

A series of higher highs and higher lows..
healthy trend ... wider stops looking out for change of behavior

The thrust of rallies and relative strength of the reactions
and where the volume shows the participation.

When behavior changes..... Tighten stops or take ( some ) profits

You bollinger bands did not give a sell signal at your sell point
But the high did when it did not close above the bands after the previous rally 
had.....= shortening of thrust.... demand supply relationship changing..

A trendline would have kept you in as well..
trendlines do know where the reaction lows are because 
that is where you draw them.

motorway


----------



## svensk (26 May 2007)

I base my exits on medium term macd crosses/macd-h divergence. I realise many would not use or agree with this method, but it works for me and is easy to implement.

That, and an initial stop/breakeven stop in the beginning.


----------



## happytrader (26 May 2007)

*Re: what is ur exit strategy ?*



R0n1n said:


> thanx a lot Nizar. Its very helpful. Clears a lot of points.
> 
> I'll explain my earlier question with an example. I had bought ZFX at 16.75 (green line on chart) and took an exit on 17.61 (red line on chart) . ZFX ofcourse went on to make it to 17.90 before finally turning around.
> 
> Was there any indicator that would have told me to hang on to the ride ?




Hi ROn1n

Thats not a bad ROI for the time you were in the trade. I guess you need to ask yourself whether you are a trader or an investor. As a trader you need to be flexible and mobile in mind and action so that you can remain detached, and concentrate on trading excellence. You could sell only a portion of your holding or just keep jumping in and out of trades. Keep moving forward and you are less likely to keeping looking behind you.

Cheers
Happytrader


----------



## R0n1n (26 May 2007)

WOW ! losts of great info here to digest. 

I guess its time for me to find a mentor. Anybody here with lots of experience and some spare time to show me the right way please.. it would be extremely appreciated...

thanx heaps...


----------



## CanOz (26 May 2007)

R0n1n said:


> WOW ! losts of great info here to digest.
> 
> I guess its time for me to find a mentor. Anybody here with lots of experience and some spare time to show me the right way please.. it would be extremely appreciated...
> 
> thanx heaps...




I'm into Nick Radge's course, "Building a Profitable Trading Plan Using Technical Analysis", and just starting the exit strategies. 

If i had things to do all over again , i would do this course, no questions asked before making a single trade.

Already started developing ideas and testing systems and into a profitable one, but already i can see the importance of the exit in the overall success.

Check out Nick's site:

www.reefcap.com

You also get a few months of personal email coaching, so there's your mentor, and not many on this forum can compare to his experience.

Good luck.

Cheers,


----------



## It's Snake Pliskin (27 May 2007)

*Re: what is ur exit strategy ?*



R0n1n said:


> thanx a lot Nizar. Its very helpful. Clears a lot of points.
> 
> I'll explain my earlier question with an example. I had bought ZFX at 16.75 (green line on chart) and took an exit on 17.61 (red line on chart) . ZFX ofcourse went on to make it to 17.90 before finally turning around.
> 
> Was there any indicator that would have told me to hang on to the ride ?




You may notice the subseqent price remained around the $17.60 level after peaking. You can't get it all all of the time.


----------



## motorway (27 May 2007)

*Re: what is ur exit strategy ?*



R0n1n said:


> thanx a lot Nizar. Its very helpful. Clears a lot of points.
> 
> I'll explain my earlier question with an example. I had bought ZFX at 16.75 (green line on chart) and took an exit on 17.61 (red line on chart) . ZFX ofcourse went on to make it to 17.90 before finally turning around.
> 
> Was there any indicator that would have told me to hang on to the ride ?






* Was there any indicator that would have told me to hang on to the ride ?[/ *

That is a interesting question that leads on to all sorts of other questions
I made the point that indicators do not know where the rally and reaction tops will be...  Charts of price  Vs time display trends that  speed up and slow down..

reviewing some articles on
moved base TA vs Time based TA recently

The problem of periodicity keeps being mentioned ..


eg can  a moving average be a foolproof indicator to inform us to "hang on to the ride "

( can any ? )





> Moving Averages
> 
> Moving averages are the simplest smoothers.  Before widespread use of PCs, one could easily keep up the data smoothing with a hand calculator, as the only data necessary for the calculation were the price being added and the price being dropped.  That exercise warned users to “Beware the dog that bites twice”, which is to say that the moving average was tremendously affected by not only the new day, but the day being dropped.  That “dog bite” problem can be significant in shorter term moving averages.  Most traders who have always used computers are unaware of dog bite problem.
> 
> ...





known periodicty !
major problem in a nutshell

The mkt sets up rhythms only to deliver sucker punches..

Could You pay competitive sport using a moving average of your opponent ?
The superior player .. changes the speed and rhythm He breaks the rhythm.
It is the inferior player that gets trapped in rhythm..

anyone for tennis ?

You have to react to what is happening, when and how it is happening.
In real time  ( which maybe is different to the periodicity of the tic tock of the clock )

...Indicators can be improved ...But they still can not know where the rally tops and reaction lows will occur in time

The changes on your chart that matter
march to their own time ..

The question of moved base TA vs Time Based
leads on from this problem of trends changing speed

An old methodology that is still very new at the same time
and an example of moved base TA

is Point and Figure ....

motorway


----------



## motorway (27 May 2007)

> A trendline would have kept you in as well..
> trendlines do know where the reaction lows are because
> that is where you draw them.





Trend lines are very useful. Very powerful.


motorway


----------



## R0n1n (27 May 2007)

*Motorway:* Thanx for pointing out Trendlines and busting the bubble about MA. 

_can a moving average be a foolproof indicator to inform us to "hang on to the ride "

( can any ? )_

True. I guess trading is like a chess game, lots of strategies and games plans that you can use, but in the end it boils down to what Happytrader says: being agile and the capacity to anticipate the other side's moves.

*It's Snake Pliskin:* thats true. 

*CanOz:* I do have Nick's Book. The money I am trading with was actually meant to be my trading course/books/software money. But I read on this forum that you do not need 10K worth courses and elite software to trade, rather trade with that amount and you learn a lot. I find this very true, although the leassons are harsh sometimes  

*svensk:* can you please give more details about your medium term MACD signals.

*Nizar:* thanx again on your excellent intro to Fixed Fractional position Sizing, definitely implementing it. I know this is not the first time u have typed it out and probably not the last, but its very appreciated.

*Tech/a:* I was reading some of ur old posts and u have mentioned that u would be happy to test someones trading system, can I take u up on that sometime ? I am working on mine.. and hopefully will have it sorted sooner. If you think its ok then I will make it as a trading course and sell it at expensive hotels at 10k a pop LOL . Actually I'll post it here once it oked so other noobes like me can benifit.


I have actually copied and saved a lot of stuff that has been said here into my notes.


----------



## tech/a (27 May 2007)

Supply me with the metastock code and I'm happy to run it.


----------



## tech/a (27 May 2007)

Just on the trade itself.
It would be handy for you or anyone to have an idea where your were/are in a trade so that you could get an idea what price action was likely to occur.

ZFX is currently in a Minor wave 4 corrective wave in a larger Wave 5 according to Elliot Wave.Provided wave C (The current wave ) doesnt trade lower than the top of the closest wave 1 then the analysis will remain valid.

The likely extension to wave 5 is the first Turquoise and Pink Line and the second the Larger one.Thought it would be interesting to watch.
We are looking for the Blue elipse--the shadow of the ellipse and price to all coincide.

The trade itself when taken was in a corrective phase and one which would be seen by this poster as very low probability (At the time).Not a trade I personally would have taken---much better around.


----------



## nizar (27 May 2007)

tech/a said:


> The trade itself when taken was in a corrective phase and one which would be seen by this poster as very low probability (At the time).Not a trade I personally would have taken---much better around.




Tend to agree.
ZFX has been sideways for the last several months.

R0n1n, maybe entries is another thing to look at as well?


----------



## Edwood (27 May 2007)

Evening all - some interesting stuff on this thread!  thought I'd add my 2pence worth 

Looking at the 12 month view agree with the earlier posts - sloppy choppy for a while now & looking 4-ish after the rise so there's potential for a wave 5 higher (assuming the overall market holds up of course!)  if you 'have' to trade when its sideways like this Ronin in my view you could do worse than switch on bollinger bands & trade the range.  have a look, there were some good opportunities there

Strong negative divergence b/w price & MACD was a good early warning sign of pending reversal - confirmed with the break of trend line

I added the weak +ve divergence just to show it working again - but it was very weak.  higher low in the MACD also warned of a long set up tho

Personally am not convinced with using MACD cross-over on its own, they lag

re: entries - price breakout above or below the MA is the one you always want to get

Think as Tech says wave 4's aren't much fun - better to look around for something else if you can

All the best!

Ed


----------



## motorway (27 May 2007)

My view would be;

It's in a trading range..

Active ranges build trends

At the arrow I have first definitive signs 
That there has been  accumulation happening.

I have good volume ( relative ) off the bottom 
of the range with clear evidence of demand overcoming supply

A sign of strength which must be confirmed by a Last point of supply

The last bar has a close nearer the high and some volume
It clearly ran into demand
possibly setting up that  higher point of support.

Too much price spread and too much vol
To buy now  ( For Me and My time frame ).

Looking for a move up with more strength
and the next retest 
if it has narrower spread
and lower volume showing supply drying up

could ( COULD ) have the stock on the springboard

( Think of a diver bouncing up and down.. There is a springboard under Him
That even if We can not see it . We can see the springy support it gives  )

Between the arrow and the ? .. The rally top shows a lack of demand willing to reach higher... 

Ranges form because demand overcomes supply at the bottom
and supply overcomes demand at the top

The SOS suggests the buying on balance is better then the selling..

Everything is pending UNTIL CONFIRMED..
If the price falls to the lower support line on good volume
Then the SOS is unconfirmed

If price moves up from near this halfway point
Strength is being further confirmed.
The SOS by the relative strength in the subsequent reaction( where We are )


motorway


----------



## motorway (27 May 2007)

Between the arrow and the ?


----------



## motorway (28 May 2007)

> Strong negative divergence b/w price & MACD was a good early warning sign of pending reversal




Correct Me if I am wrong

But the divergence was being created 
by the actual price action..

What I called 

A shortening of the thrust of the rallies
and the relative strength of the reactions
That is what is showing up in a second order derivative of the price action.
The MACD

Is anything more responsive than the price action itself?

The MACD has to be lagging.
But also non optimal
It has a fixed look back of, with your settings

 12 16 9

They will only be perfectly optimal
with a certain bar spacing of top to top and bottom to bottom.

The MACD gets around to telling Us that this rally has made less headway than the last.. But after it has happened and with less accuracy imo
than actually measuring the distance and spacing of the price action itself.

All indicators only tell you what
price, volume and time
have already told you with exact precision...
because the price action is not lagging or non-optimized..

It just is


cheers
motorway

ps... The same tools that get Us  into the trade are the same tools that determine the (potential) exit from the trade..


----------



## wayneL (28 May 2007)

motorway said:


> Correct Me if I am wrong
> 
> But the divergence was being created
> by the actual price action..
> ...



Exactly,

I have found by de-constructing the indicators (and MACD is a dead easy oner to do), one can "see" indicator divergences in the raw price action as you have stated.

You know what the indicator will show without even having to look at it, making the indicator redundant. (as it aways is anyway)

They have a use in scanning in my trading (and adding colour to the chart ) but that's it... the odd time as a crutch.


----------



## It's Snake Pliskin (28 May 2007)

wayneL said:


> Exactly,
> 
> I have found by de-constructing the indicators (and MACD is a dead easy oner to do), one can "see" indicator divergences in the raw price action as you have stated.
> 
> ...




With some degree of hindsight advantage, I see indicators as nothing but propping up software selling capitalists that make money of the unsuspecting. 
this is not to say some indicators are useless, RSI, MACD stocchie do prove useful at times.


----------



## Edwood (28 May 2007)

motorway said:


> Correct Me if I am wrong
> 
> But the divergence was being created
> by the actual price action..
> ...





sure thing re: price action & indicators M.Way, I find MACD an easy way to see the trend breaking down - works fine for my approach and no need to change it.  agree you can't beat the raw price - & with simple indicators like a simple MA + MACD would have given the best move in the last 12 months within a 6-8 week period

Given the sensitivity of your P&F chart I'm not sure why you've asked about exit strategies - it looks as tho you are in this as a long-term play?  but exiting on a break of the trend line could be one way to get out.  however with that triple top breakout looming....

all the best

Ed


----------



## tech/a (28 May 2007)

Edwood.

Motorway isnt looking for answers just suggesting a few.


----------



## Edwood (28 May 2007)

yes you're right Tech!!  my apologies Motorway!    Ronin asked about the exits, not you - am obviously spending too much time in front of the screen 

I'll get back to me indices & leave you guys to it

Ed

PS - off topic - how come your Updata P&F doesn't print O's Motorway?


----------



## rowes (28 May 2007)

Hi,

I get out when the reason for being in the trade is no longer aparent rather than a %. I am into candlestick anlasis though.


----------



## motorway (28 May 2007)

The P&F of this program is at the top rank

The first chart is a 1 box reversal chart
I want to highlight the flow of demand and supply
and it's topography

like a river flowing through a mountain range
called demand and supply

looking for ceilings and floors
esp looking at congestion

up and down in this case are red herrings
It is shape and flow to be focused on

so better to use just x  and note,
the proper scaling and in your terminology X and O s in the same column
keeps horizontal areas tight and defined 

P&F reduced to just a break out method
looses a lot..

The box size is to filter out all swings 
except those of smart money..filter out noise

So with this chart it is not stand alone
integrate with the bar chart ( or smaller box sixe P&f )
( though note the trend line on the chart gave a high priced exit point
with the cross of the trend line ( P&F dose not scale through time , but through volatility )..

The fluctuations directly are caused by differences of opinion
and not moving across just because another day has passed..

will draw log box sizes, relative strength charts
scan for trend line breaks ,, will chart any other line as a P&f
eg OBV...Will do P&F market breath charts, bullish %

Just Xs is the same reason why just blue bars on the bar chart
red and green are not stop and go

It is waves of action.. flow


I could draw that chart with X and O

here is the three box reversal
of the same box size with X and O

Bar charts & P&F charts
confirm and qualify each other

P&F because there is NO time is an efficient way to scan whole mkts

motorway


----------



## R0n1n (28 May 2007)

Thanx to you guys I havent got off Qantas yet and enjoying the flight


----------



## Edwood (28 May 2007)

motorway said:


> The P&F of this program is at the top rank
> 
> The first chart is a 1 box reversal chart
> I want to highlight the flow of demand and supply
> ...




yeah I like Updata's P&F capability Motorway but now trade intra-day mostly and didn't want to pay Updata for their live feed service plus am not UK anymore and wanted support in local hours so dropped their product.

well done Ronin with sticking with Qantas.  would be interested to hear when you exit & why after the various commetns!

cheers

Ed


----------



## motorway (28 May 2007)

There is supposed to be an optimized esignal
version coming out end of June

That should give you any mkt and any time frame...

I have it linked to a metastock database atm

motorway


----------



## R0n1n (28 May 2007)

Edwood said:


> well done Ronin with sticking with Qantas.  would be interested to hear when you exit & why after the various commetns!
> 
> cheers
> 
> Ed




I ain't exiting yet.. although watching closely as RSI is 88.


----------



## Kauri (28 May 2007)

*Re: what is ur exit strategy ?*



R0n1n said:


> I'll explain my earlier question with an example. I had bought ZFX at 16.75 (green line on chart) and took an exit on 17.61 (red line on chart) . ZFX ofcourse went on to make it to 17.90 before finally turning around.
> 
> Was there any indicator that would have told me to hang on to the ride ?




       ronin
              I took a trade (actually 2 trades) in ZFX at the same time/price as your example, in, I thought, _*an impulsive opposed to corrective phase???*_.. the first trade was a short term trade to catch 2R+ in a short time, closed that out i think 4 days later at the same level as you for 2R..
              The other trade was taken at the same time with a longer time frame in mind.. i.e to get on a 5 wave impulse at W1..and *if* it panned out then to pyramid in *if *the opportunity presents on W3 and agian on W5... the details and rasoning I think I posted real time on the ZFX thread. Bear in mind my trading is a work in progress, and I tend to make as many, if not more, mistakes than the next bloke.

             Tech,
                    With your AGet setup, if the price does drop down to the blue elipse in what you have labelled as a W4 correction wouldn't that invalidate the count with W4<W1 ??


----------



## tech/a (28 May 2007)

Kauri.

The Blue Ellipse,the grey ellipse and price will all come together.
But *yes* if that did occur it would invalidate the count and the count would be re labelled by GET.


----------



## tech/a (6 June 2007)

From the Entry thread.

MTN.
There is a 2 bar weakness shown in the current MTN move.
Trailing stop would be at $5.94 the low of the last 2 bars.
Notice the attempt to sustain higher prices which fail (shown in the range of the bar and close near the low) and the sad lack of Volume to support buying.


----------



## nizar (6 June 2007)

tech/a said:


> From the Entry thread.
> 
> MTN.
> There is a 2 bar weakness shown in the current MTN move.
> ...




Tech.
Do you use end of day stops or intraday?


----------



## theasxgorilla (6 June 2007)

motorway said:


> Trend lines are very useful. Very powerful.
> 
> 
> motorway




I also use trendlines, accompanied by lower highs, lower lows, and in the case of a trailing stop I use what Van Tharp calls a "maximum adverse excursion".  In otherwords a retracement.  I base that amount on historic retracement specific to that share.

Motorway has a bit of the science on why trendlines are effective (powerful)...I just know they work.


----------



## R0n1n (6 June 2007)

theasxgorilla said:


> I also use trendlines, accompanied by lower highs, lower lows, and in the case of a trailing stop I use what Van Tharp calls a "maximum adverse excursion".  In otherwords a retracement.  I base that amount on historic retracement specific to that share.
> 
> Motorway has a bit of the science on why trendlines are effective (powerful)...I just know they work.




true. I was on PBL, and on the 1st it broke the trendline I had drawn, so I jumped out... I am happy I did.


----------



## tech/a (6 June 2007)

nizar.
The stop is set from a bar or a bar within a pattern.
Exit is intraday if triggered.


----------



## tech/a (6 June 2007)

Although stopped out today MTN closed strongly today.
Could still be more in this.
Buy back for wave 3 of this final wave 5 if confirmed $6.26


----------



## theasxgorilla (6 June 2007)

R0n1n said:


> true. I was on PBL, and on the 1st it broke the trendline I had drawn, so I jumped out... I am happy I did.




I also tend to use a zoom-out, zoom-in, zoom-out again, then zoom-in approach.

1. find shares to enter using weekly charts
2. zoom-in and enter using a daily chart
3. zoom-out again once trend is underway and monitor position using weekly chart)
4. zoom-in again when the trend shows signs of slowing and adjust trailing stops/exit on a daily.


----------



## CanOz (6 June 2007)

theasxgorilla said:


> I also tend to use a zoom-out, zoom-in, zoom-out again, then zoom-in approach.
> 
> 1. find shares to enter using weekly charts
> 2. zoom-in and enter using a daily chart
> ...




Great post G'rilla...i like this so much i think i'll incorporate it into my training plan right away!

Good to see you posting more frequently again too.

Cheers,


----------



## reece55 (6 June 2007)

Hey ASX Gorilla, couldn't of summed it up more eloquently than that mate.....

Pretty much exactly the way trade unless I have some other quantitative reason for establishing a trade - watch for a break out into a fresh range, enter on strength (perhaps waiting for a test of new support). Then, if the support line is broken, close out and cut losses quickly....

The one thing I note is to ensure that you set your stop just a little below the obvious support line - wiggle room. Nothing worse than being shaken out early of a position just before it takes off..........

Cheers
Reece


----------



## R0n1n (7 June 2007)

Reece, nice blog, way to go...


----------



## R0n1n (7 June 2007)

I sold all of my holding in QAN.. its broken my trend line and the last couple of days the selling pressure has been there.. and the overall volume has been declining...


----------



## lukeaye (22 September 2009)

*Exit Strategies*

Hi guys,

didnt find anything on here, so i dont think this has been done yet. Just thought it would be interesting to see what peoples exit strategies are.

I thought this might help alot of people out, as i remember i had real trouble with it. I spent years learning how to pick where a stock would go, when to enter it, and how to enter, basically everything i needed to know about how to get in to a profitable trade, along with many pie in the sky ideas about where it should go, but nobody ever told me how to get out! and in my opinion that is one of the most important parts.

To get the ball rolling i though id share one of mine. This is a conservative approach i take to exit any triangle formation i trade. Im basing this on a positive expectancy, im not talking about stop losses.

Obiovusly to understand an exit entry must also be known,

I wont give away my whole entry criteria, but i buy off support in triangles.

EXIT 1:
Assuming the stock rallies past horizontal/diagonal resistance, Half the position will be closed once the stock moves lower then the second last up days open.

Scenario 1: Stock continues to move down below old resistance, remainder of position closed.

Scenario 2: Stock finds support at at previous resistance, in more time, and at a lower ranged days, Process repeated. This time the whole position is closed.

This is a conservative exit. There are other higher risk strategies that i also use. The thing i like about this strategy though, is that i have no preconcevied notion as to what the price of the equity will go to. I find if you think xyz should go from 3.50 to 4.50 you will never be prepared to sell it at 4.00! by not putting values on my expectations i found it easier mentally to take the profit. 

Of course i based this strategy on backtesting and looking at 100's of flag formations, and shaped it to suit the way i traded and what gave the best possible result for the highest probabilty of return. I am well aware that there may be better ones though.


----------



## nomore4s (22 September 2009)

lukeaye,

I have moved your post to this thread as it also discusses a number of different exit strategies from various posters.


----------



## Chris45 (22 September 2009)

tech/a said:


> The likely extension to wave 5 is the first Turquoise and Pink Line *and the second the Larger one*. Thought it would be interesting to watch.



Don't know how many saw *Advanced GET's wave 5 target for ZFX* but the highest price reached was $21.60 on 9-Jul-07. That's amazing!


----------



## kam75 (22 September 2009)

R0n1n said:


> Just trying to find out what other people use as exit strategy ? I am still trying to get mine ironed out..
> Do you use an indicator ? or a trailing stop loss. What persentage do u use ?




1. Stoploss
2. Profit target
3. time stop


----------



## tech/a (22 September 2009)

Chris45 said:


> Don't know how many saw *Advanced GET's wave 5 target for ZFX* but the highest price reached was $21.60 on 9-Jul-07. That's amazing!




Smoke and mirrors.
I trade illusions.


----------



## prozac (28 September 2009)

Some very tech knowledge involved by some. Those who trade on tech pointers, do you really make good profits, consistently? That is a serious question btw.


----------

