# America a Failed State and a Rogue State to the rest of the World



## kahuna1 (2 May 2020)

USA just passed Italy at CV19 infection rates !!!

Trumps new press secretary …. declared Trump never has told a lie and always tells the truth. She proclaimed she will not lie in her first press conference. Sorry if you needed laxative, well we now have it via the 31 year old propagandist.

I note USA has 36,000 new cases 1st May 2020 and 66,000 deaths. I also note their models which were touted to the press are all broken and one has total deaths adjusted up 5 times to now 72,433- seems to have all death stopping in USA as ordered by the resident idiots.



https://covid19.healthdata.org/united-states-of-america



USA and Gilead drug that supposedly helps CV19 the peer reviewed scientific paper on its trial, shows NO change to anything other than adverse reactions. This was released on the 29th April the day after it was claimed it was of some use.



We await the actual USA trial and removing 10% of patients from the trial with extreme reactions of which 8 at least died, makes the actual mortality rate 16% verse 11% … WORSE … not better WORSE. 

Australia and its numbers remain encouraging. As does NZ. USA with a broken system and seriously infected presenting latter and often beyond much hope other than let the virus run its course already has a sobbingly awful mortality rate.

Some states, Florida has taken to deliberate not reporting CV19 as cause of death. If they die as often is the case via heart attack as the lungs stop functioning via CV19, stress on the heart cases a heart attack, cause of death ? Even if your postie for CV19, medical examiners put heart attack as cause of death !!

USA, has not a hope. For their medical system and society with 11 million illegals who unless nearly dead will not get tested for fear of being deported is one issue. Second is 80 million on Medicaid which is an awful cover leaves them also unlikely to be tested because they will get smacked with a massive bankrupting bill on the side. Medicare not much better for 60 million. Then those insured, with deductibles of $3,000- needed to be paid first by the patient and then $1,500 co payments and this is the type of cover for say 100 million out of 130 million, the visit to the doctor or emergency room is last resort.

Basically a perfect breeding ground for a virus. If your poorer more than likely you live in a big household. If your poor you have little savings and need to work. I will have a sandwich please with virus on the side !!

I think it would be fair to say the *USA is a “Failed State” right now* in terms of its role as a government for the overall people. Its failed. Open and exposed. CV19 for now is just exposing the medial side of things. Society will not be the same for the USA post CV19. The indifference of the fate of the majority and seeing food banks swamped by people of all colours, astounding.

Last point and this also is clear is that USA not only is failed state, *USA is a “Rouge State” for the rest of the world*. USA policy under Trump not much different than Obama and Bush and Clinton. USA first. Open economic terrorism has abounded for many years. Actions of USA based and controlled credit rating agencies are absurd. USA state sponsored tax theft is assumed will continue post CV19 when all nations are faced with 50% more debt to GDP ? USA has been the worlds policeman post WW2 but increasingly more a brutal monster with some actions.



In 2019, USA was ranked number one in terms of being prepared for a pandemic. Ranked in the very upper end of medical systems when recently in 2020 many ER people were wearing garbage bags as protective gear. People who should have been in hospital for weeks were and still are arriving dead or near dead in ambulances with blood oxygen levels in the 60's.

USA openly and actively is not only slashing funding to say the UN or WHO, its trying to destroy them. World Bank and IMF are adjunct USA policy arms and their statistics are a joke when what one nation calls one statistic is vastly different to another. Without fail, they favour the USA for these institutions.

I am sure, USA will as always attempt to assert its authority. Its actions post 2016 with threatening virtually every nation with actions, will, of course continue but with, I suspect, virtually zero tolerance as time goes on for tax theft via the likes of Microsoft and Amazon, FB and Google.

Only time will of course tell. Not an environment easy to navigate.

Retail sector for those with virus issue till a vaccine a USA restaurant already likely struggling paying a waitress $3.40 an hour plus tips ? To get infected with say 33% of the customers ? Amusing and once habits change, as they have been forced to, the longer it goes on, the longer it takes to even think about going back.

*My model still optimistic with 1.7 million reported as seriously infected in the USA by June 30th 2020 and 128,000 REPOTED deaths*.

Of course, its now a race for who can be more dishonest, China or USA with its reporting.

With now 19 states after a mere 3 weeks break and infections at 4 times any EU nation right now being currently, CURRENTLY reported, lets go back to work.

As such science meets stupidity yet again ….

Likely double the numbers even reported by end of 2020 for USA and 3.4 million seriously infected, *likely 250,000 deaths end of 2020* and well … who shall we blame ?

It is science. It is maths. Things ultra far right deny and do so with revisionist propaganda to try and cover the graves.

Right now, USA has more infections per capita than even Italy !!

https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/#countries

It is testing at per capita similar levels to Italy finally, but has tested merely 66% as many overall !!

Its likely its current infection rate is close to Spain and worlds worst.

Italy locked down on the 3rd March and Maybe relaxes a bit by 8 weeks. USA well it only locked down for 20 states April 3rd and opened back up for 19 on the 26th to 29th April. Active unidentified cases are 4 times MORE and clearly so being identified each day in the USA. Outcome does not take a rocket scientist or anyone with an IQ over 50 to work out.

CV19 is a virus. It is immune to political bull. It thrives upon stupidity.

Calling USA a failed state, is mild. Whilst CV19 would have hit the severity already of USA actions to date have it at DOUBLE where it should have been. Since that will double by June 30th 2020 and quadruple by end of 2020, what does one call this regime ?

Actions of USA pre CV19 to the rest of the world pre CV19, were rogue and designed with contempt for all non USA people not in the top 1%. These ranged from de-funding aid programs to trying to destroy the UN and EU at any and all opportunities to tearing up mutual non proliferation treaties for missiles and weapons to any other thing that suited the USA. USA was standing alone pre CV19 on many issues and post CV19, even late 2020 I fear the worst. I hope for more, but fear what a sociopath will do.

Declaring 10 out of 10 for his efforts on CV19 when 400 were dead and still doing it with 66,000 dead is absurd and disturbing.

I note today magically Trump who defeated the virus at 15 cases, was stuck on 60,000 deaths magically went to 100,000 verses Mondays estimate of 60,000.

At least most despot genocidal maniacs did not appear on TV to display their contempt and absolute contempt for human life.

Welcome to 2020 !!

A "Failed State" that clearly does not care about the welfare of its people is being nice.
Comparing it to a genocidal maniac state would be far more accurate. Its not as though they are not aware how the virus spreads and what need to be done to protect the people. Back to WORK now for $3.40 an hour as a waitress plus tips with 33% of the seating ... then again 16 States dont even have that !! 

Take care

Mark K.


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## Knobby22 (2 May 2020)

I know it was accidental but a rouge state is apt. 
Rouge:a cosmetic cream or powder for colouring the cheeks and lips. 

It is sad but we are seeing from the USA is the political class putting lipstick on a pig. 

I  still predict 2 million deaths whether they count them or not.


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## basilio (2 May 2020)

Its a challenging statement but IMV  makes awful sense. In particular the destructiveness of the US to other countries under the Trump administration is scary.  
Another example here.
 
 Water 
* 'It feels like nobody cares': the Americans living without running water amid Covid-19 *
As the pandemic leaves millions without work, taps are turned off even as the CDC calls for frequent hand-washing

...A third of American households – about 120 million people – still risk having their water disconnected and racking up exorbitant fees, despite calls from a coalition of lawmakers and advocates to suspend all utility shutoffs until the country drags itself out of this unprecedented crisis. And while more than 600 localities and 13 states have mandated moratoriums on disconnecting residents since early March, some of these will soon expire as states reopen for business.

https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2020/may/01/water-shutoffs-us-coronavirus-utilities-economy


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## Sdajii (2 May 2020)

You call the USA a failed state.

The USA is by far, far above and beyond any other, the country which most people in the world would choose to move to if they had the choice.

How many people want to move to live under the tyrany of the CCP???

Sure, it has a lot of problems, but if the country with the world's largest economy, largest military, and the most people wishing they could live there is a failed state, I'm not sure if anywhere in the world counts as a success. Your hatred of it does not make it a failure.


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## SirRumpole (2 May 2020)

I'm sure there are parts of the US that are nice to live in. Most of middle America is just like middle Australia I'd say, and life goes on regardless of who is in government.

But there seem to be a lot more areas (compared to Australia and considering a larger population) that are poor, crime ridden and downtrodden which is a fairly stark contrast to the wealth and privilege of the better areas. 

So I wouldn't consider the US "failed", just that it needs "a bit of work" to drag a few of the poorer areas out of the gutter.

We don't really appreciate how good we have it in Australia. NZ, Canada, Germany, Sweden would be other candidates for a good place to live, but pick the right area of the USA and you could be quite happy.


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## Sdajii (2 May 2020)

SirRumpole said:


> I'm sure there are parts of the US that are nice to live in. Most of middle America is just like middle Australia I'd say, and life goes on regardless of who is in government.
> 
> But there seem to be a lot more areas (compared to Australia and considering a larger population) that are poor, crime ridden and downtrodden which is a fairly stark contrast to the wealth and privilege of the better areas.
> 
> ...




I think even that is putting it harshly. All you need to do in the USA to have a good life is not make the choice to be a gutter rat. There's a reason countless uneducated people with no money desperately want to go there; they know that all you need to make a decent life there is an able body and a strong work ethic. You find the weakest work ethics among people who come from very comfortable (successful) countries.


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## Dona Ferentes (2 May 2020)

A land of extremes. Yes. But  then, there are 350million people, and a vigorous economy

But stereotyping and running cliches is pointless. People get on with lives.

This BBC report is informative, the 3'28" clip at the end especially so. 

*Coronavirus: New York becomes Ground Zero again*

https://www.bbc.com/news/world-us-canada-52495746


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## againsthegrain (2 May 2020)

id still rather live in/under USA than anywhere near china or its influence


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## kahuna1 (2 May 2020)

Gilead and its magic Drug ....  Remdesivir ...

I have never seen  a drug in a clinical trial with 60% adverse effects.

NEVER.

New England Journal of medicine. Initial trail ... where it should have stopped.

A total of 32 patients (60%) reported adverse events .... A total of 12 patients (23%) had serious adverse events.

https://www.nejm.org/doi/full/10.1056/NEJMoa2007016

So if in 20 years one has never seen such a dangerous useless drug advance why did this one ?

I know the answer, but rather than use cliches or opinion, would you care to ask why ?
It does go to the heart of what the USA is right now. A failed corrupt state.

Winner gets  a free course ... of bleach, which is less harmful.

PS, as a long term resident of the USA ... I have and had no desire to live there longer than was required. Some may aspire to live there from poor nations, but not many developed ones wish to live there. Most of the thousands of Australians I knew there working in the USA returned back home, whilst enjoying their time there, glad to be back to Australia.


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## rederob (2 May 2020)

againsthegrain said:


> id still rather live in/under USA than anywhere near china or its influence



But don't you live in Australia?


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## kahuna1 (2 May 2020)

rederob said:


> But don't you live in Australia?




Yes, but I lived and worked in the USA for many years. Did stints also in UK and other places over the years as well. UK a mere 2 year jaunt. USA much much longer.


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## kahuna1 (2 May 2020)

Gilead and its magic Drug .... Remdesivir ..

I will add this drug developed for Ebola totally failed and amazingly even with Ebola patients it was cited for adverse side effects and actually had a higher morality rate than the control case.

So why would a drug with question marks advance for CV19 beyond phase 1 ? especially when that trial was a total fail ? How is this possible ? Why is it possible ?


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## Joe90 (2 May 2020)

Everyone knows everything is bigger and better in the US .

An article from The Atlantic along similar lines...
*We Are Living in a Failed State*
The coronavirus didn’t break America. It revealed what was already broken.
https://www.theatlantic.com/magazine/archive/2020/06/underlying-conditions/610261/


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## wayneL (2 May 2020)

Failed state? LMAO!

It of course has deep problems, and may yet fail at some point in the future, but I think there are a fair few nations in that queue before the US gets there.


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## Sdajii (2 May 2020)

Joe90 said:


> Everyone knows everything is bigger and better in the US .
> 
> An article from The Atlantic along similar lines...
> *We Are Living in a Failed State*
> ...




You need a rather peculiar outlook to think America is broken. Sure, it has problems, but fundamentally broken enough to label it as a broken country? Don't believe the anti American media. It's not the world's most popular country because of propaganda or media bias. It's far, far from perfect, but there are plenty of valid reasons it's the country most in demand as a place to call home.


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## kahuna1 (2 May 2020)

Sigh ....

Pick your favorite of the 100 ... days ...

https://www.motherjones.com/politics/2020/04/trump-coronavirus-timeline/

These are direct quotes. Not opinion, views but factual accounts.


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## Sdajii (2 May 2020)

kahuna1 said:


> Sigh ....
> 
> Pick your favorite of the 100 ... days ...
> 
> ...




If you wanted to make something with just 10% as much bias but on the other side of neutral, you'd make Trump look like the biggest genius that ever there was.

But of course that would be 10% as stupid as the nonsense you just posted.

What's the point in spreading ultra-biased, grossly dishonest propaganda? If you believe such nonsense it's no wonder you have such a pessimistic, bleak, negative outlook as demonstrated here.

To give yourself an idea of how ridiculous bias looks, take a look at the right-biased media, consider that it's no more biased than the garbage you are currently following, and stop to think about that. Through the lenses you see the world through it will look far more insane than it actually is (don't get me wrong, it's still insane), and that's how insane your garbage looks to people on the other side. Somewhere in the middle is reality, which few people seem to be interested in these days.

Don't be a part of the polarisation problem, on either side.


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## noirua (2 May 2020)

A friend of mine was on staff at the White House. She worked as part of a cleaning and maintenance crew for roughly 20 years. She worked primarily after hours so she was able to get a glimpse of the private lives of several presidents.

She was hired by President Clinton’s administration, but only saw him in passing because she was pretty low on the totem pole. She said he seemed friendly and cordial, but she never interacted with him.

She served under President George W. Bush, and praised him. Apparently, he was always quite friendly and engaged frequently with the staff. He had frequently shaken her hand or patted her on the shoulder as he passed.

By the time President Obama came into office she had moved into a senior role in her department. She met President and Mrs. Obama frequently, and they both were extremely dedicated to knowing their staff. President Obama was even more approachable than Mrs. Obama, as she reported. She said he generally took the time to get to know everyone that he could.

She also said that President Obama was very intense. He seemed far more focused on the work than either of the previous presidents. As such, sometimes she felt like he didn’t realize she was in the room because some activity had his overwhelming focus. For example, he would be reading in the evenings and not seem to notice that a staff member entered the room. She said he was “always studying”.

She also served briefly under President Trump. She said that the White House changed radically. She is black, and felt that the entire senior staff disregarded virtually everyone that worked in the White House under President Obama. Many longtime employees looked for jobs elsewhere. She took a retirement package at the end of 2017. She told me that almost none of the people of color who left were replaced with others of color. She said she literally did not know of one person hired by the new Chief of Staff that was black, and only a handful were non-white.

She never could get into specifics because she was forced to sign a nondisclosure agreement for President Trump. There had always been policies geared toward keeping the private lives of the Presidents private, but never a “sign this or you’re fired” type of atmosphere.

Jason Tweed, BA Communications & Public Relations, Edinboro University of Pennsylvania (1990)


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## finicky (2 May 2020)

Intellectual bloviation, it's all in your lefty head.


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## Joe90 (2 May 2020)

Sdajii said:


> You need a rather peculiar outlook to think America is broken. Sure, it has problems, but fundamentally broken enough to label it as a broken country? Don't believe the anti American media. It's not the world's most popular country because of propaganda or media bias. It's far, far from perfect, but there are plenty of valid reasons it's the country most in demand as a place to call home.




There's nothing biased about my media sources. After I've read the Guardian and the Atlantic, I read ZeroHedge to maintain my balanced outlook on life.


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## bluekelah (2 May 2020)

kahuna1 said:


> Gilead and its magic Drug .... Remdesivir ..
> 
> I will add this drug developed for Ebola totally failed and amazingly even with Ebola patients it was cited for adverse side effects and actually had a higher morality rate than the control case.
> 
> So why would a drug with question marks advance for CV19 beyond phase 1 ? especially when that trial was a total fail ? How is this possible ? Why is it possible ?



first trials started in China, anything is possible there


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## Sdajii (3 May 2020)

noirua said:


> A friend of mine was on staff at the White House. She worked as part of a cleaning and maintenance crew for roughly 20 years. She worked primarily after hours so she was able to get a glimpse of the private lives of several presidents.
> 
> She was hired by President Clinton’s administration, but only saw him in passing because she was pretty low on the totem pole. She said he seemed friendly and cordial, but she never interacted with him.
> 
> ...




I'll take fictional stories with political motives for $200, thanks.


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## kahuna1 (3 May 2020)

bluekelah said:


> first trials started in China, anything is possible there




NO .... Gilead and its Magic bleach drug trials ... for CV19 were NOT initially in China
61 patients
22 were in the United States, 22 in Europe or Canada, and 9 in Japan

I did provide the link ....

The FAILED clinical phase 1 trial ... that had 60% with adverse reactions.

New England Journal Of Medicine article 

https://www.nejm.org/doi/full/10.1056/NEJMoa2007016


As to China or other different people ... suggesting because they are Black or Brown or Yellow or Chinese that their work is not acceptable is racist, patronizing and condescending. USA has a massive issue with American exceptionalism and utter belief they are the best in the world. I try not to be that way. Inventions often come from the most unexpected places and regions. 

Suggest you try it next time your overseas if that's your thing, rougher the neighborhood the better and then tell them they are inferior based upon color ?

Clinical stage one Human trail was ... not in China ... 

Stage 2 was partially ,,, and dismissed because it did not suit the narrative. A failed drug is not what Mr Trump needed to make the market rally and get the peasants back to work. The stage 2 became stage 2/3 trial and with over 1,000 participants and China yes did run part of it ... the Magic drug FAILED there.

Pathetically failed and they reported massive drug reactions and NO effect ... no positive effect.
World Health was involved and so too many other world famous doctors then ... a few Gilead stooge scientists who were on their payroll ... or had been for many years. In fact the one who did not declare any interest .... conflicting interest ... had been involved with Gilead as a paid consultant and advisor for well over 20 years. 

Usually in science one declares interests, this, well, seems to have slipped his mind. Strange everything  about USA response to the CV19 is along these lines. Paid for consultants, pad for Gilead speakers ... paid for conferences by Gilead and they all are on the board supervising CV19. There are quite a few so will take a few goes to cover just some of the rubbish .... they are selling ...

Bleach ... but you scratch my back and I will let the patent on the drug you have that expires in  2021 that you sell for 100 times the outside USA ... be extended and make you 15 billion in sales instead of 150 million. 

Sadly ... failed states and kleptocracy ruled by an oligarchy work this way.

USA pathetically is run this way in 2020 and has been for some time.

But race aside, I dont care if your your any race or gender ....  just be competent and tell the truth. 
I am not suggesting the Communist Chinese are doing so, nor is the USA. A pox on both of them !!

Not fans of either regime.


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## kahuna1 (3 May 2020)

Oooh the video version ....

100 days of the Worlds leader !!



Hilarious ...

Sad ... and with 67,000 USA deaths as of 2nd May 2020 likely to hit 128,000 by end of June 2020 ... congratulations. Bravo !!

Strange when 100,000 died in Yemen in 2019 via USA policy it got virtually no media, I wonder if we shall hear anything about this CV19 in the next 6 weeks ?

A life is a life after all.

The model they use ... is still predicting ... right now 
*72,433 COVID-19 deaths
projected by August 4, 2020

https://covid19.healthdata.org/united-states-of-america
*
Sadly the toll is 67,087 right now and running around reported deaths 2,000 a day so, its going to stop in 3 days ?_* 
*_
Failed state is hardly covering what the USA is doing. *

*


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## wayneL (3 May 2020)

If you look at what's going on in the world, our primitive economy, and our dependency on a certain pariah country, I think Australia is probably very much closer to becoming a failed state than America.


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## rederob (3 May 2020)

Sdajii said:


> Don't believe the anti American media. It's not the world's most popular country because of propaganda or media bias. It's far, far from perfect, but there are plenty of valid reasons it's the country most in demand as a place to call home.



Simply untrue!
You appear to be guilty of believing American propaganda!


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## Garpal Gumnut (3 May 2020)

Well @kahuna1 you have certainly aroused the meek and emboldened the brave. It is a timely and worthy thread in these times. It interests me as I predicted a win for Trump in 2016 and I fear he may get in again this year.

The USA is certainly broken, and is as rogue as the average empire but nowhere near so as many others presently in the world. 

This a popcorn thread so I'll go in to detail as the arguments unfold. suffice it to say that American Democrat liberal leaders are divorced from the blue collar and worker base and Trump and the rabid media control the topics which will decide the election and have the means to manipulate the truth and the message.

gg


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## wayneL (3 May 2020)

Okay here's an interesting thought experiment. 

What makes a successful state? ie *not a failed state?


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## sptrawler (3 May 2020)

wayneL said:


> If you look at what's going on in the world, our primitive economy, and our dependency on a certain pariah country, I think Australia is probably very much closer to becoming a failed state than America.



I did post up a thread a long time ago, "why not sell W.A to China", as I said in reality they will probably end up owning it for a fraction of its worth.
Signing on to the Lima agreement in the 1970's, really has left us exposed to being bought out by an overseas Country, we have offshored all our manufacturing in the name of helping 3rd World Countries.
But in doing so, we have left ourselves very exposed, to becoming a 3rd World Country IMO.

_The *Lima Declaration* is a UN-led initiative that seeks to “flatten” the world's production to redistribute wealth to give all nations a “fair share”. It is an international trade *agreement* similar to G.A.T.T, (General *Agreement* on Trade and Tariffs_.
https://www.afr.com/policy/the-stealthy-betrayal-of-australian-society-19991027-k90xo
https://www.ironbarkresources.com/articles/phillips20050300.htm

https://www.australianconservativecoalition.com/the-lima-declaration

https://www.unido.org/sites/default/files/2012-10/Lima Declaration and Plan of Action on Industrial Development and Co-operation_26.3.1975_0.PDF

I'm not saying it is right or wrong, but it seems that maintaining our lifestyle and welfare State, is going to become harder and harder IMO.
Especially when the media and miners, have so much influence over the plebs.


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## kahuna1 (3 May 2020)

Sigh ...

USA daily numbers ....


Trump has apologized for it all !!




Not his thing ...

My favorite from the first 100 days was him scoring himself 10/10 with a mere 4,000 cases and last week ... as Deaths hit 58,000 and Vietnam War levels along with cases hit over 1.1 million he congratulated how well he has done. Is a million more than 4,000 ? Is it 250 times more ? Would you congratulate yourself unless you were insane or barely human ?

Is he even human ?

I must get me some of that syphilis or delusion or is it cocaine ?

Still the  model they use and propaganda by estimates all deaths stop at 73,000 in the USA basically Wednesday next week has not been updated..


Expect reported deaths to drop for USA for tomorrow as its Sunday and well ... Pence in charge of the task force is chanting at his local church being an evangelical christian along with Dr Birch and Surgeon General with the lisp ...

I wonder what time on Wednesday all deaths stop in the USA ? Maybe they all drink bleach or try Gilead Drug Remdesivir which causes massive side effects ? Cant get upset other than the waste of life, since I actually cared about say Yemen or innocents hit via drone strikes ... not sure I should be more upset .. USA has shifted its target domestically to the poor and mainly non whites  there ?

I suppose I am equally disgusted in these monsters recent disdain for humans who are running the USA.


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## aus_trader (3 May 2020)

It comes as no surprise for me. Trump only looks after his billionaire buddies and himself.

Even all the trillions pumped out is going towards the wealthy to protect and keep their assets propped up, and very little if at all going to the people really in need.

Thank God for all the charitable organisations to keep the people fed during this crisis...


We are lucky to be here down under.


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## sptrawler (4 May 2020)

Interesting article on World manufacturing.

https://www.brookings.edu/research/...card-how-the-us-compares-to-18-other-nations/


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## Bill M (4 May 2020)

aus_trader said:


> It comes as no surprise for me. Trump only looks after his billionaire buddies and himself.



In all my life and all the Presidents I have seen come and go Trump has got to be the worst I have ever seen, ever. He has handled this COVID-19 situation so badly with everything he has done and said. This is a very short video made only 2 days ago, on the the right it shows the death rate, it is showing over 66,000 have died of this virus in the USA already.


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## joeno (4 May 2020)

Interesting watch. A different view of current world affairs, perspectives slightly different than the heavy pro-US/pro-war propaganda that is force fed to all of us on a daily basis. The US "perpetual war" strategy.


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## lusk (4 May 2020)

Bill M said:


> In all my life and all the Presidents I have seen come and go Trump has got to be the worst I have ever seen, ever. He has handled this COVID-19 situation so badly with everything he has done and said. This is a very short video made only 2 days ago, on the the right it shows the death rate, it is showing over 66,000 have died of this virus in the USA already.





It wouldn't have mattered who has president there was no way they were going to be able to lock the place down for any extended time without them waving their guns and constitutional rights around. 

Problem is you always here from the news the worst about the US. l don't think its over for the them, within 2 months of the first case they had a trial vaccine going, they will work it out.


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## kahuna1 (4 May 2020)

Most nations locked down for 50-60 days ....

USA locked down for 23 in 19 states !!

As for vaccine .... Gilead's Drug does not work, this however is not stopping it being touted like the malaria one as a cure. I will be back with FAR more on this sham.

USA stepped up testing somewhat and got 12% of the cases positive.
So test 200,000 a day they found 24,000 NEW cases.

EU nations going back are and have been testing with 1% .... of the tests coming back positive.

Australia which is about to relax, has been getting less than 1 in a 1000 positives .... we tested 15,000 plus on average a day for the last week and got under 15 cases a day.

EU is 10 times better prepared than USA to relax and we, Australia are hoping for the impossible to maybe eradicate it. Unlikely due to transmission .... but still we can hope. Will make a vast difference to what emerges post lock-down.

Question would be ? A simple one or two .... a vaccine is hoped for, it is not guaranteed and how it works, how long it works for and well ... where it comes from is the other question. Gileads drug skipped all protocols clearly kills more people .... yet they are approving it. Control group abandoned and the quoted supposed experts ... are PAID Gilead consultants !!

ON testing and when your ready, if USA is getting 10 times more positives than EU nations and has locked down for half the time, do you think it will turn out well ?

How badly would be the question.

Or course the USA does not care since it hits mainly non white and poor stupid white people and the ones running the USA are elderly racist white males. Not something I admire. I note George W Junior Bush has emerged with a comment and the man who well ... managed to invade and kill millions looking for WMDS and Katrina went so well with New Orleans abandoned for 15 days post the storm.

Trump already beat that with Puerto Rico and the two cyclones with 3,000 dead and 2 million without electricity even 90 days latter.

I wonder if they were not Lilly white ? 

Yes go back to work peasants .... ignore that the numbers are 10 times worse than anywhere else going back to work and your lock-down was half as long !! 

Failed state ? Or Genocidal maniac ?


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## tech/a (4 May 2020)

lusk said:


> It wouldn't have mattered who has president there was no way they were going to be able to lock the place down for any extended time without them waving their guns and constitutional rights around.
> 
> Problem is you always here from the news the worst about the US. l don't think its over for the them, within 2 months of the first case they had a trial vaccine going, they will work it out.




This is true.

*But would you rather a leader who leads than one who follows?* (Public pressure--popularity--self serving).


----------



## joeno (4 May 2020)

tech/a said:


> This is true.
> 
> *But would you rather a leader who leads than one who follows?* (Public pressure--popularity--self serving).




That is entirely the point of a good leader. They should listen and follow the needs of the people and act kindly & honourably. Save lives rather than take lives. See the other side rather than their own side. A concept that doesn't seem to exist in modern American (and western?) culture.

Lying, making unsubstantiated accusations, proselytising, warmongering, intimidation tactics, threatening nuclear war and leading the world into chaos is indeed leadership. A real evil selfish type of leadership that Trump & the American regime now epitomises.

America basically gets a get-out-jail free card for all their crimes in the last 150 years because they are powerful and in large control the flow of world news.


----------



## basilio (4 May 2020)

IMV there is whiff of the Ottoman Empire  late 19th Century  around the US. A seemingly very powerful force that steadily lost its influence . After WW1 it was toast


----------



## tech/a (4 May 2020)

joeno said:


> But it is not good leadership.




Dictatorship?


----------



## basilio (4 May 2020)

The conversation around the US as a failed state is about how it will come out of the current COVID 19 crisis.
It seems clear that there is no effective plan to continue mass testing and social distancing to control the spread of the virus. We already know the health system is incapable of treating millions of uninsured people who will fall sick.  So the questions  are :

"What will happen if/when the virus takes hold in prisons,  the military, industries like  abattoirs  manufacturing hospitality ?
"How long will the rest of the world continue to prop up the US dollar as the level of indebtedness spirals up ?"
"How will the US cope with the next normal series of natural disasters while dealing with the virus ? Think hurricanes and floods ?"

We'll see won't we ?


----------



## Dona Ferentes (4 May 2020)

I see Trump more along the lines of what happened with the late Roman Empire. (Decline and Fall, and all that). Specifically, and here's a name to revel in,* Maximinus Thrax* (or _Gaius Iulius Verus Maximinus Augustus_), hailing from some eastern tribe, and first emperor not from the senatorial or equestrian classes (in other words, of low birth). A barbarian, and local tough guy, elevating himself through the legions to a position of military power and bringing along lackeys without any political experience, a supporting faction, distinguished ancestors, or hereditary claims.

While Trump's ascent hasn't been via the military, the methods of rewarding supporters and hating the establishment (elites/ nobility) have marked parallels. As has the putting out of spot fires (China/ Germania) only to have others break out elsewhere. And, worse, Thrax's time is seen as the beginning of the _Crisis of the Third Century, _when a polarised and feuding Empire, whose institutions had been weakened by usurpers and factional lightweights, shuddered and nearly collapsed.


----------



## kahuna1 (4 May 2020)

WAR ?

To distract ? Despite the virus being of natural origin .... lets go to war ? Lets NOT join the USA.

It is time and overdue that Australia stood on its own two feet. Not suggesting we chum up to China or the USA .... just

Trump speaking seems intent on laying blame and deflecting to both produce fear and racial hatred whilst covering up his actions.

Likely as some have pointed out it will work and Trump 2020 .... after what even prior to CV19 was an idiotic and alarming ride, another 4 years ?

USA seems to think they now after 24 days in lock down they have some immunity.
Given the near record numbers of recorded cases and total infections worse than even Italy its quite the opposite. No herd immunity is possible unless they increase numbers say 10 fold and 1 million dead.

Even then whether CV19 and catching it gives you immunity remains a very real doubt. Is it for life the immunity, or for 3 months ? Is it like the flu ? Just 10 times as deadly and next years strain is as bad as last years horror ?

Gas-lighting and projection are the tools of the seriously mentally disturbed.

I note as per usual Sunday USA numbers on deaths, HALVE .... every week they halve ... then magically rebound in latter days.







USA hit a second record high for new cases during the last 7 days ...

Lets blame China .... go to war with them ...




PS back to work slaves ... we have cut off your unemployment benifits.

Australia thankfully in a very different universe than Trumps delusional world. About 40% of USA will and does accept his word as gospel !!

Today's reported deaths ... USA half 3 days ago ... just like last week !!

Florida and Texas reporting of deaths reaching ... along with Georgia ... absurdities that are 25% of states with far better healthcare systems in the USA. 

Sigh .... Its Zimbabwe baby !!  Same methods and same propaganda.

I note Trump was on the State Media Propaganda network, AKA Fox News, for this town hall and held ... at the Lincoln Memorial ... rah rah rah USA USA USA ...


----------



## tech/a (4 May 2020)

You'll never get accurate figures for the US.
Too many agendas.

Millions wont chose to be tested
Millions cant afford to hospitalize.
1000s will die but be recorded as unknown or some other cause.

Adelaide is a back water--pretty glad to be here!


----------



## jbocker (4 May 2020)

tech/a said:


> Adelaide is a back water--pretty glad to be here!



...and further along is us in the west. Happy being here too. 
In fact I am pretty proud of the nations efforts, it is what we were known for, looking out for each other.
It appears to be paying off big time, but lots more work to do, to get back on our feet.


----------



## Knobby22 (4 May 2020)

If everyone downloads the app we can get the pubs and restaurants back open.
That is how the South Koreans reopened their economy.


----------



## Humid (4 May 2020)

Knobby22 said:


> If everyone downloads the app we can get the pubs and restaurants back open.
> That is how the South Koreans reopened their economy.




You talked me into it

Just finished uploading my info and a black SUV cruised past..... suspicious


----------



## Humid (4 May 2020)

The pubs bit won me over


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## sptrawler (4 May 2020)

The only thing stopping me from downloading the app is, I'm loving the lack of traffic on the roads, it's bloody great.


----------



## tech/a (4 May 2020)

Just download the app people.


----------



## InsvestoBoy (4 May 2020)

tech/a said:


> Adelaide is a back water--pretty glad to be here!




Northern TAS even more backwater, didn't save them.


----------



## wayneL (4 May 2020)

Such good Proles.


----------



## tech/a (4 May 2020)

InsvestoBoy said:


> Northern TAS even more backwater, didn't save them.




It was in a known area (Hospital) so could be controlled.
TAS is one of the best states.

NSW VIC and QLD need to be annexed off!


Its Community Transfer which sends it out of control.
The USA has 1000s wandering around 
Sweden --well that's another story.

I love the mantra the curve is flattening.
Yeh from a peak of (Say) 1500 deaths a day to 1000 a day 
Today, tomorrow, the next day and so it goes.
Yet more states are un protected and miraculously no more 
deaths no increase.


----------



## basilio (4 May 2020)

Why the US may look like a failed state in six months time.
 
*Donald Trump's four-step plan to reopen the US economy – and why it will be lethal *
Robert Reich
The president and his allies are hiding the facts and pretending ‘freedom’ conquers all. As a result, more Americans will die
https://www.theguardian.com/comment...d-trump-reopen-us-economy-lethal-robert-reich


----------



## joeno (4 May 2020)

basilio said:


> IMV there is whiff of the Ottoman Empire  late 19th Century  around the US. A seemingly very powerful force that steadily lost its influence . After WW1 it was toast
> 
> View attachment 103192




Luckily Ottomans didn't have a huge nuke arsenal.



Dona Ferentes said:


> I see Trump more along the lines of what happened with the late Roman Empire. (Decline and Fall, and all that). Specifically, and here's a name to revel in,* Maximinus Thrax* (or _Gaius Iulius Verus Maximinus Augustus_), hailing from some eastern tribe, and first emperor not from the senatorial or equestrian classes (in other words, of low birth). A barbarian, and local tough guy, elevating himself through the legions to a position of military power and bringing along lackeys without any political experience, a supporting faction, distinguished ancestors, or hereditary claims




Trump isn't a tough guy nor someone of low birth. He's a spoiled rich megalomaniac. An utter failure hiding behind corrupt warmongering advisors. He likes to play golf during his spare time and grab women by the p****. The #1 Roman emperor analogy would no doubt be Caligula.

But honestly no Roman emperor or dynasty was worse. Cause the difference is those certain corrupt Roman dynasties couldn't get away with it. They justly fell. But somehow we're stuck with the indignation America will have its way once again.


----------



## Rsthree (4 May 2020)

joeno said:


> Luckily Ottomans didn't have a huge nuke arsenal.
> 
> 
> 
> ...




The book I read on Trump, I believe it was called 'Trump Revealed' essentially painted him as a Petty criminal, scammer and bully. Very interesting read, a shocker in fact.


----------



## Country Lad (4 May 2020)




----------



## Joe90 (4 May 2020)

basilio said:


> Why the US may look like a failed state in six months time.
> 
> *Donald Trump's four-step plan to reopen the US economy – and why it will be lethal *
> Robert Reich
> ...




Who's next??? You must select a media outlet from the right hand side of this image to maintain a balanced/unbiased outlook for the thread . Mmm ZeroHedge is missing...


----------



## wayneL (4 May 2020)

And yet, he is rich beyond any of our dreams and President of the most powerful nation on Earth.

Hmmmm


----------



## kahuna1 (4 May 2020)

*The Daily Caller*
*Background*
_The Daily Caller_ is an online media outlet founded by conservative TV commentator and journalist Tucker Carlson and Neil Patel, former chief policy advisor to Vice President Cheny. Launched on January 11, 2010, _The Daily Caller_ positioned itself as a conservative alternative to _The Huffington Post_. [1], [2]

Gee why would I quote Tucker Carlson ? Ever ?


----------



## kahuna1 (4 May 2020)

The coronavirus pandemic has, by far, done more damage to our economy than the 9/11 attacks. Al-Qaeda, Hezbollah, ISIS, and others still dream of bringing our economy to a standstill. They will try to exacerbate the damage done by the coronavirus by striking us at home or abroad.

The terrorist networks see a historic opportunity in the coronavirus pandemic. A major attack, for example, against our electric grids could bring our tottering economy to its knees.

Our intelligence community has never been good at warning us of massive terror attacks. Even before it failed to warn us of the 9/11 attacks, the CIA has been ineffective in predicting and enabling the interdiction of significant events. It was as surprised when the Berlin Wall fell in 1989 as it was when the wall was built almost overnight in August 1961.

The president should demand that the intelligence community go on full alert against such an attack and bring to bear whatever resources may be needed. We have been lucky, since the 9/11 attacks, that it has been able to detect and enable us to interdict many such attacks. At this time of crisis, we need more than luck to see us through.

https://spectator.org/national-security-in-the-time-of-pandemic/

&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&

Are your eyes burning ?

That was from 23rd March ... and Now 6 weeks latter Trump is sounding if anything nuttier than the insane rubbish this person spewed.

Virtually no factual content or even close is why I tend not to read .... rubbish. Commies under the bed ? Terrorists under every rock !!

That's why people dont quote stuff out of the right of your chart. Pure idiotic BS.


----------



## kahuna1 (4 May 2020)

Please watch Americas number one News show ...




Its illuminating ....
It is all a hoax ? The virus. A political plot ?

Not edited ... no spin on it ... actual footage.

Would you buy drugs from people backing this ? Or bonds ? Or airplanes .... well when they stop them crashing ?

Every con man needs idiots to con. Every cult needs cult members. 
*
USA is a failed state and sadly clearly displayed.

*I might add Warren Buffets media empire is right of even this ... if you try and tax the rich. So too Gates and Bezos Washington post ... Bloomberg just spent 1 billion USD to stop tax hikes and decent healthcare ... so Warren did not win ... then when Sanders took over ... so he didn't win.


----------



## basilio (4 May 2020)

*Response to reopening the US.  *
Let's try a thought experiment.

The  death toll for COVID 19 is currently 2-2,500 per day. Current  cumulative total(acknowledged) is 68k+.  The infection rate is not falling - just going up and down at around 30,000 new infections a day. And lets remember these are are generally the ones that reach the hospitals. The serious illnesses.

The administration is wanting to relax the distancing regulations, allow/encourage business to start in earnest, encourage  far more social interaction. And this is with 30,000 new infections a day already occurring.

So lets  suggest the ongoing death rate stays at 2000 people a day. 60,000 a month. *Another 300,000 dead  by October.  *And that doesn't factor in hundreds of thousands more  who survive but are left seriously ill. (1)


Who will these new victims be ?
Will they include Senators, Congressmen and various State politicians ?
Will they undermine the military ?
Will there be 20/30/50,000 deaths amongst the fervent evangelicals who are strongest in supporting Trump and coming to their weekly prayer sessions ?
Will the tens of thousands of Trump supporters who come to his rallies spread the virus ?
How many people will die in  meatworks ? Will there simply be a revolving door of employees who fall sick and die and are replaced by new ones who also run that risk ?
Will the prisons and ICE compounds become centres of infection and kill thousands of inmates as well as infecting the staff ?
What will be the effect on critical infrastructure ?  At what stage will these create a compounding problem ?
How will the financial markets both in the US an across the world view this type of unfolding trainwreck ? (2)

Given the fact that infections are still on the rise in many states how will relaxing social distancing magically result in maintaining or reducing the infection level ?
*And finally. *The premise of this thought experiment is  anticipating deaths at* less t*han the current daily average. What are the outcomes if death rates rise to 3 or 4,000 a day as infections, deaths and pressures on medical facilities intensify ?

What  impact would 100,000 deaths a month have on the country ?

1)  https://www.sciencemag.org/news/2020/04/survivors-severe-covid-19-beating-virus-just-beginning

2) https://www.barrons.com/articles/th...are-worst-during-the-virus-crisis-51584742383

https://www.statnews.com/2020/04/30/coronavirus-death-projections-compare-causes-of-death/


----------



## Garpal Gumnut (4 May 2020)

basilio said:


> *Response to reopening the US.  *
> The infection rate is not falling - just going up and down at around 30,000 new infections a day. And lets remember these are are generally the ones that reach the hospitals. The serious illnesses.
> 
> The administration is wanting to relax the distancing regulations, allow/encourage business to start in earnest, encourage  far more social interaction. And this is with 30,000 new infections a day already occurring.
> ...




I'd agree @basilio . Trump does not understand the concept of exponential.

He is in charge and he is not very bright. Good at open houses and selling real estate. 

Lousy at everything else. 

gg


----------



## Joe90 (4 May 2020)

kahuna1 said:


> Please watch Americas number one News show ...
> 
> Its illuminating ....
> It is all a hoax ? The virus. A political plot ?




Ahhh, a balance has been restored. I feel better already.

Joe90
www.takethepiss.com.au


----------



## joeno (5 May 2020)

Rsthree said:


> The book I read on Trump, I believe it was called 'Trump Revealed' essentially painted him as a Petty criminal, scammer and bully. Very interesting read, a shocker in fact.




I remember applying for a job during uni back around 2006. I thought it was a sales job until the "recruiter" showed me a video of Trump talking about how great it is to work there. The company? ACN (a MLM company aka a pyramid scheme company). The job? For me to pay them $$$ for the privilege to recruit others.

Link:
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/ACN_Inc.

But anyways to be fair to Trump he's just an average American idiot. I don't think he's evil. A lot of his actions are pushed by a much more sinister agenda which includes the CIA, establishment US politics, American media, and corporate interests. He's just the narcissistic mouthpiece.


----------



## aus_trader (5 May 2020)

Looking at the stock markets, it seems that the US has recovered the most and the rest of the world are lagging behind in the recovery or languishing near the bottoms.

But I fear that the US might be the Achilles Heel in the Global market recovery thanks to mismanagement of the situation, although they are leading with their FED backed stock market bounce at the moment...


----------



## qldfrog (5 May 2020)

aus_trader said:


> Looking at the stock markets, it seems that the US has recovered the most and the rest of the world are lagging behind in the recovery or languishing near the bottoms.
> 
> But I fear that the US might be the Achilles Heel in the Global market recovery thanks to mismanagement of the situation, although they are leading with their FED backed stock market bounce at the moment...



Not talking about the emotional humane side of things but lockdown a la Europe or Australian way is an economic disaster, looking at figures only..
This is what the market should do, the less action the less wreckage.
.That would economically and financially make sense.
I think the US market is a half baked lockdown result and so should be less affected.
No one i know did a Business as usual response, would have been nice to compare economically.
So as much it is against my feelings, i do not think the US market will crash much more.
I have a very different view on the ASX as we have been and will be hit by a hurricane due to our economy.but realisation will come slowly especially if US market is up
Technically, my indicators are slowing but still up and my systems are reentering the market this week


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## kahuna1 (5 May 2020)

Overnight ...

Stock market rallied off lows.
USA DOUBLED the estimate of deaths.

Whist not using my computer model ..... June 2020 estimate now equals my own at 128 k .

It is absurd for the obvious flaw ... NO new and ongoing cases ... no second wave latter 2020. Some immunity has been bestowed for stupidity ?

One moment its this .... 72,433- estimate



The next the estimate is 134,475- not quite double but close ...



I have my doubts ... the model is rubbish ... because infections do NOT stop until a vaccine is found.

My doubts are due to the fact that say Connecticut with the highest GDP per capita in the USA for a state and a great healthcare system ...  similar cases to other States which are poor, dirt poor for say Georgia and people with CV19 turning up in dire distress verses rich Connecticut and as such little one can do for those almost dead prior to being able to afford going to the hospital. One knows already Texas and Florida are cooking their numbers .... on deaths ... so too Georgia.

Look at the cases, the numbers of infected ... and well ... if one believes one does better without medical help early on in any instance your an idiot.

3rd Column over ... Deaths Texas at 908 .... verses Connecticut at 2,506 . Really ? Georgia same thing lets reports HALF or 40% of them !!





This is what failed states do ...
Failed in the sense of taking care of the MANY ...

Narrative is go back to work or starve. Georgia and I might add all states have shocking new infection numbers despite the BS about deaths. Everything is open in Georgia .... Florida refused 95% of all unemployment applications and as such if you were poor, either you work ... . or you starve. Are they kidding ? No ... sadly not. Back to work at Trump Resort Mara Lago ... please a burger with CV19 and a coke for that imbecile !!

Sigh ... its going to be slow and painful to watch as the USA kills 100,000 people, because it can, sadly even more than that.


----------



## kahuna1 (5 May 2020)

Americas policy is far worse than Sweden ...

Just to show how Trump ... Gates ... Buffet ... Bezos and the rest really care !!






USA without contact tracing ... actually rising infections ... BACK to WORK peasants. 

NOW


----------



## bluekelah (5 May 2020)

basilio said:


> *Response to reopening the US.  *
> Let's try a thought experiment.
> 
> The  death toll for COVID 19 is currently 2-2,500 per day. Current  cumulative total(acknowledged) is 68k+.  The infection rate is not falling - just going up and down at around 30,000 new infections a day. And lets remember these are are generally the ones that reach the hospitals. The serious illnesses.
> ...




350m population, 1% fatality means about 3.5m dead (best case scenario for now without lockdown and adequate hospital facilities.


----------



## aus_trader (5 May 2020)

qldfrog said:


> Not talking about the emotional humane side of things but lockdown a la Europe or Australian way is an economic disaster, looking at figures only..
> This is what the market should do, the less action the less wreckage.
> .That would economically and financially make sense.
> I think the US market is a half baked lockdown result and so should be less affected.
> ...



You could be right as well, I just don't know. If everything is done to prop up the stock market in terms of FED actions and the leadership actions well it is working, at least for the time being. We can look at the US markets in disbelief, but human toll is not a factor that drives stock markets. It's the amount of money printing by the FED that can be used to buy the market either directly or indirectly via investment banks.

Anyway it is what it is, so I won't argue. As a well respected ASF member said either in this thread or another thread: it might take the loss of a high profile figure or their immediate family in the billionaire club for the funds and efforts to be directed to where it's actually needed in the real economy at ground level.

Good to hear that you are also re-entering stocks. I have also only just started buying ASX stocks, very cautiously and selectively. I have added another stock today that may be less affected economically in these times because they are an essential service provider. Will update my 'spec portfolio' in the evening with this purchase. For members interested, ASF thread for that portfolio is Speculative Stock Portfolio.


----------



## qldfrog (5 May 2020)

bluekelah said:


> 350m population, 1% fatality means about 3.5m dead (best case scenario for now without lockdown and adequate hospital facilities.



From a heartless economist view, the million death will be mostly aged or even retired, poorer ;these deaths will trigger assets rotation and money flow.
Wealth transfer toward younger and more money spending generations
It is actually a GDP godsent...
So the us market could get a boost


----------



## qldfrog (5 May 2020)

bluekelah said:


> 350m population, 1% fatality means about 3.5m dead (best case scenario for now without lockdown and adequate hospital facilities.



From a heartless economist view, the million death will be mostly aged or even retired, poorer ;these deaths will trigger assets rotation and money flow.
Wealth transfer toward younger and more money spending generations
It is actually a GDP godsent...
So the US market could get a boost with genuine reasons especially if China conflicts generate more domestic industry boost
But we as asx have no such luck


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## Humid (5 May 2020)

It gets more heartless


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## aus_trader (5 May 2020)

I don't think we should have such a grim view of our own country.

We Aussies are the 2nd best on Earth after New Zealand taking the 1st prize in managing the situation as best as possible with least numbers of deaths and only a moderate period of shut downs. Hopefully... back to normal soon for us. Great for NZ already for beating the disease and slowly but surely re-opening the country.

There is no reason that we could start up some manufacturing base if we were forced to do so. We used to be a great manufacturing nation you know. Now we only mine minerals and build homes. Still better than nothing I suppose.

I am doing my part. Buying Aussie made whenever possible and making bite sized purchases of selective Aussie companies.


----------



## Garpal Gumnut (5 May 2020)

qldfrog said:


> From a heartless economist view, the million death will be mostly aged or even retired, poorer ;these deaths will trigger assets rotation and money flow.
> Wealth transfer toward younger and more money spending generations
> It is actually a GDP godsent...
> So the us market could get a boost



I believe the fallout in social capital which is already at a low ebb in the USA will negate any boost to the market or to GDP. 

Covid-19 will affect the unwell, poor and minorities more than the very rich and capable. 

Short term there will be a boost to their economy, if, and it's a big if, the US Coronavirus curve flattens next month. 

Lots of nutters with lots of guns do not for a good life make. No matter how much money one has. 

gg


----------



## qldfrog (5 May 2020)

aus_trader said:


> I don't think we should have such a grim view of our own country.
> 
> We Aussies are the 2nd best on Earth after New Zealand taking the 1st prize in managing the situation as best as possible with least numbers of deaths and only a moderate period of shut downs. Hopefully... back to normal soon for us. Great for NZ already for beating the disease and slowly but surely re-opening the country.
> 
> ...



We can not and the ASX can notsustain  the current economy if the only activity left is mining coal and iron for China with decreasing needs
economy was not great with tourists and o/s students, now we just have mining and agriculture


----------



## aus_trader (6 May 2020)

qldfrog said:


> We can not and the ASX can notsustain  the current economy if the only activity left is mining coal and iron for China with decreasing needs
> economy was not great with tourists and o/s students, now we just have mining and agriculture



There is a real slow down I agree and it won't be firing on all cylinders any time soon...

qldfrog, perhaps this is a wake up call to our nation we can't just export bulk commodities and expect to be globally competitive. Perhaps this is time to be innovative like in the past when we invented the Hills hoist, Victa lawn mower, Black Box Flight recorder and the Bionic Ear.

Locally, here is some talk of cutting back restrictions and allowing a slow recovery. If we can just get to no new cases (which we almost got to) as NZ has then a lot of local industries can start up. Today Qantas chief Alan Joyce was optimistic towards starting up local interstate travel as soon as we achieve that. The prices are mouth watering too when he mentioned $19 flights b/w Melb-Syd and $29 flights b/w other states. Then if the country is safe for local travellers there will be international travel with our neighbour NZ. Other nations may have to prove themselves before international travel could resume as normal, so that could be a fair way off.


----------



## noirua (6 May 2020)

*Status Report of U.S. Government Gold Reserve*
*March 31, 2020*
https://www.fiscal.treasury.gov/reports-statements/gold-report/current.html

The United States has
261,498,926.241 fine troy ounces

Total - U.S. Government Gold Reserve
The value is approximately $11,041,059,957.90 book value

At US$1,700 per ounce the true book value is US$445,481,742,000


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## noirua (6 May 2020)

*Gold Reserves* in *Australia* averaged 78.80 Tonnes from 2000 until 2019, reaching an all time high of 79.85 Tonnes in the first quarter of 2009 and a record low of 68.70 Tonnes in the third quarter of 2018.
https://tradingeconomics.com/australia/gold-reserves


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## noirua (6 May 2020)

*Gold Reserves* in *China* averaged 1006.78 Tonnes from 2000 until 2019, reaching an all time high of 1948.31 Tonnes in the fourth quarter of 2019 and a record low of 395.01 Tonnes in the second quarter of 2000.
https://tradingeconomics.com/china/gold-reserves


----------



## noirua (6 May 2020)




----------



## noirua (6 May 2020)

World List of Gold Reserves:
https://tradingeconomics.com/country-list/gold-reserves


----------



## qldfrog (6 May 2020)

I


noirua said:


> World List of Gold Reserves:
> https://tradingeconomics.com/country-list/gold-reserves



Interesting @noirua , does th US figure include the gold own overseas but stored in the US like when the german gold that Germany tried unsuccessfully from memory to bring home.likewise the domestic gold.
But it indeed keep things in perspective.
The US remains the key wealth and global superpower but it is indeed in the situation France and the UK were at the early 1900's.a waning superpower.
investment wise, i still look at NYSE indicators and do not even bother looking at the Chinese or HK ones to trade.
it says it all as does the hysteria around Trump we do not see replicated against the Chinese leader.just my opinion..


----------



## qldfrog (6 May 2020)

aus_trader said:


> qldfrog, perhaps this is a wake up call to our nation we can't just export bulk commodities and expect to be globally competitive. Perhaps this is time to be innovative like in the past when we invented the Hills hoist, Victa lawn mower, Black Box Flight recorder and the Bionic Ear.



I do hope too.
Let's Australia public and attitude surprise me but i can not forget the response from both the public and all political parties to Turnbull entrepreneurial vision.
crossing fingers...


----------



## wayneL (6 May 2020)

Here is a link detailing the ranking of countries by economic complexity.

https://www.visualcapitalist.com/countries-ranked-by-their-economic-complexity/

We are languishing down in 93rd place.


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## kahuna1 (6 May 2020)

445 billion in Gold ....
30 trillion debt by end of 2020 /...

30,000 billion in debt verses 445 billion gold is .... still 29,550 billion NET in  debt.

29.45 trillion  NET debt ... bravo !! Broke and stupid USA.


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## rederob (6 May 2020)

kahuna1 said:


> 445 billion in Gold ....
> 30 trillion debt by end of 2020 /...
> 
> 30,000 billion in debt verses 445 billion gold is .... still 29,550 billion NET in  debt.
> ...



I got that covered Kahuna.
We go back to the gold standard and trade gold at about $50000 per ounce.
Works for me!


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## kahuna1 (6 May 2020)

My favorites from overnight ....

Market rallied of course .
Virus has mutated again and articles in Lancet have the grim news.

USA reported deaths magically Doubled from Sunday where VP Pence who must vet them ... was in Church chanting about the Rapture. yes he is one of them ... knocking at your door soon. Cough cough ...

Encouraging economic news ....

*UK car sales fell 97% *

Yes 97%

April's figure marked a 97% plunge in sales from the same month last year.
https://www.bbc.com/news/business-52508010

Lets rally USA markets. A bet is .... Las Vegas ... basically a petrie dish called a Casino .. will visitor numbers fall 75% or 95%  ? Now that its opening again. Lets rally those stocks some more !!


Trump went on a Twitter rage over an ad his chief liars husband made against him. Oh at 12.46 am till about 4 am ...

Back with some other absurdities soon. Australia and our besties NZ are in a very good place. *NZ has beaten us again in the race to Zero !!* Download the FCKING app .... grow up if your worried about being tracked because Google has your location down to less than 1 meter ... at all times, most apps on your phone need the GPS turned on !! Most that dont ... ask for it anyhow. We all know how Google cares and doesn't pay tax in Australia and books sales via Singapore ... whoops did someone lead the charge and make them pay 472 million in fines last year in Australia to the tax office ? USA companies do NOT need to pay tax to peasant nations. Microsoft is my next task .... FB as well ...

At least with NZ winning so far ... we BOTH, as nations, will live this one down.

Virus mutating is well .... normal but the USA version of it came for Europe and its best feature is that it spreads far more easily. Far out !!


----------



## Bill M (6 May 2020)

How does the richest nation in the world end up doing things like this? I am so glad I don't live there.

---
*Dozens of bodies discovered in U-Haul trucks outside Brooklyn funeral home
*
*Police find stacks of bodies in unrefrigerated trucks; ‘You don’t respect the dead that way,’ says neighbor.*

Police found dozens of bodies being stored in unrefrigerated trucks outside a Brooklyn funeral home and lying on the facility’s floor Wednesday, law enforcement sources told The Post.

Between 40 to 60 bodies were discovered either stacked up in U-Haul box trucks outside Andrew Cleckley Funeral Services in Flatlands or on the building’s floor, after neighbors reported a foul odor around the property, sources said.

https://www.marketwatch.com/story/d...funeral-home-2020-04-29?mod=mw_more_headlines
---


----------



## kahuna1 (6 May 2020)

USA Stupidity 5th May 2020

Firstly I make no apology for being upset and ashamed at the USA response and its repercussions to its people of all races and creeds.

Trump had a town hall media blitz Sunday with Fox news. Usual non factual rubbish emerged. He did compare his treatment via the press to Abraham Lincoln as to how unfair he was being treated. Lincoln was shot in the back of the head with the bullet lodging behind his eye prior to 3 hours of excruciating pain before he died.



Continued .... in 

PDF below ... about 4 min read with charts and stuff if  your interested.


----------



## kahuna1 (6 May 2020)

Double Sundays fiction.
https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/us/







Something pretty !!


----------



## Sdajii (6 May 2020)

kahuna1 said:


> 445 billion in Gold ....
> 30 trillion debt by end of 2020 /...
> 
> 30,000 billion in debt verses 445 billion gold is .... still 29,550 billion NET in  debt.
> ...




If push comes to shove, keep in mind that the debt is in American dollars, which the USA can print at a cost of zero, and pay off their debt in full. It's a trick they could only pull off once, but they could do it. Obviously they're not likely to just do it all at once, and it seems they can indefinitely kick that can down the road with that trick up their sleeve, so effectively, who is broke and who is stupid?


----------



## wayneL (6 May 2020)

Sdajii said:


> If push comes to shove, keep in mind that the debt is in American dollars, which the USA can print at a cost of zero, and pay off their debt in full. It's a trick they could only pull off once, but they could do it. Obviously they're not likely to just do it all at once, and it seems they can indefinitely kick that can down the road with that trick up their sleeve, so effectively, who is broke and who is stupid?



BOOM.

While I may be alarmed at the actions and completely disagree with them they are not stupid.

Anyone who thinks they are stupid is a feckin imbecile. They are acting in their own interests, not ours.

This should not be surprising, protect thyself accordingly.


----------



## Humid (6 May 2020)

Sdajii said:


> If push comes to shove, keep in mind that the debt is in American dollars, which the USA can print at a cost of zero, and pay off their debt in full. It's a trick they could only pull off once, but they could do it. Obviously they're not likely to just do it all at once, and it seems they can indefinitely kick that can down the road with that trick up their sleeve, so effectively, who is broke and who is stupid?




Venezuela


----------



## wayneL (6 May 2020)

Humid said:


> Venezuela



You're seriously comparing Venezuela to the USA?


----------



## Humid (6 May 2020)

No you are


----------



## kahuna1 (6 May 2020)

Sdajii said:


> USA can print at a cost of zero, and pay off their debt in full.




Sigh ... if you dont understand economics or currencies ... maybe dont comment. USA is not printing money, if it did so, its currency would implode. It is yes expanding the money supply, by issuing bonds and then buying them back, but, to create money out of thin air would cause a currency collapse, not a crash a collapse.

Eventually one day ... the bonds its bought will either be sold and the trade reversed, or they will mature .... or they will default and that's more likely ,.... given the leaders.

MMT or modern monetary theory is ... well ... a game of shells which works, till it really really doesn't. Usually no one buys their bonds .... or is willing to lend at any interest rate followed by a currency collapse.

Argentina ... most South American nations .... German collapse post 1920 and currency went from 4/1 USD to 10 billion to 1 USD.


----------



## kahuna1 (6 May 2020)

I note USA declares its thinking about .... *disbanding the Covid19 task forc*e ...

https://www.reuters.com/article/us-...wn-as-focus-shifts-to-reopening-idUSKBN22H2YG

In the past month ... USA has added 900,000 new cases ... and over 60,000 new deaths.

The rate is NOT going down.

Only one nation has done worse ....

Amusingly

UK which has not even got a Brexit deal with the EU ...

Now *UK  announces ... a Trade Deal with the USA*.

This will take years .... literally years.

https://www.reuters.com/article/us-...as-virus-ravages-global-economy-idUSKBN22H0E0

UK for the record is 55 million so .... its about 1/6th the size of the USA.
Its only just started really testing and its numbers compared to the USA are just as bad.

It is however winning with ... deaths and 20,000 deaths time 6 is DOUBLE the USA.
Thats 120,000 at the converted ratio !!

Market was faltering ... and the first announcement didn't really do it ... but the second .... wow ... almost worked.

This far right ... policy of stuff the peasants is working for the UK and USA.

UK likely catches up to Italy within 10 days and heads for Spanish type numbers.

Two imbeciles trying to distract and gaslight ... good luck. Still laughing over 97% fall in UK car sales overnight. Trump sniffing like ... mad and well Boris has now his 18th child we know of. 

Brilliant !!


----------



## aus_trader (6 May 2020)

wayneL said:


> Here is a link detailing the ranking of countries by economic complexity.
> 
> https://www.visualcapitalist.com/countries-ranked-by-their-economic-complexity/
> 
> We are languishing down in 93rd place.




Great perspective wayneL, when looking at who we are next to...


----------



## aus_trader (6 May 2020)

noirua said:


>



That's because Nixon confiscated all the Gold from the US citizens.

China's Gold is with the citizens and the total would be quite substantial compared to what is shown as known Govt reserves. Same with India.

As a side note, it saddens me that we are not on the list since we are one of the biggest Gold producers in the world. We are selling everything including the kitchen sink !


----------



## Sdajii (6 May 2020)

wayneL said:


> You're seriously comparing Venezuela to the USA?




In saying "Venezuela" I think he was responding to the question "Who is broke and stupid?"


----------



## kahuna1 (6 May 2020)

*“The one thing that the pandemic has taught us is that I was right.”* In a New York Post interview, Trump said he thinks Americans are “starting to feel good now.” (Vox)

I think he is the greatest leader since Pol Pot


----------



## Sdajii (6 May 2020)

kahuna1 said:


> Sigh ... if you dont understand economics or currencies ... maybe dont comment. USA is not printing money, if it did so, its currency would implode. It is yes expanding the money supply, by issuing bonds and then buying them back, but, to create money out of thin air would cause a currency collapse, not a crash a collapse.
> 
> Eventually one day ... the bonds its bought will either be sold and the trade reversed, or they will mature .... or they will default and that's more likely ,.... given the leaders.
> 
> ...




Tomayto tomahto. They're constantly increasing the supply of American dollars.

Obviously if they were to suddenly create a huge extra supply of American dollars it would radically devalue the American dollar, but they could use any number of strategies to mitigate this. Obviously they're extraordinarily unlikely to ever suddenly do this, but just conceptually, they could say American citizens can convert their wealth (in whatever way they come up with) into new American buckeroo pound rupee credits, and foreigners left holding American dollars (or American debt) are now holding pretty much nothing. The new American buckeroo pound rupee credits are backed by a gold standard.

Again, obviously nothing so extreme is at all likely to happen, but a milder and drawn out version can be applied. The comical thing is that the USA's debt is in American dollars, which is not backed by a gold standard, and the value is controlled by the entity with the debt. It's the same as you lending me Sdaji dollars which I can use to buy and do things, and I control the value of the Sdaji dollar. If you're stupid enough to keep giving me Sdaji dollars and I'm spending decades spending them and buying myself assets and enjoying myself, and I'm also buying up a pile of powerful, scary weapons and stuff which you find intimidating enough to ensure you don't want to stop playing this game and lending me more Sdaji dollars, and you just keep doing this... who is the stupid one?

Consider who is actually paying for the American military, the world's largest.

Tell me again who is stupid.


----------



## kahuna1 (6 May 2020)

Sdajii said:


> Tell me again who is stupid.




That would be rude.


----------



## satanoperca (6 May 2020)

Sdajii said:


> Tomayto tomahto. They're constantly increasing the supply of American dollars.
> 
> Obviously if they were to suddenly create a huge extra supply of American dollars it would radically devalue the American dollar, but they could use any number of strategies to mitigate this. Obviously they're extraordinarily unlikely to ever suddenly do this, but just conceptually, they could say American citizens can convert their wealth (in whatever way they come up with) into new American buckeroo pound rupee credits, and foreigners left holding American dollars (or American debt) are now holding pretty much nothing. The new American buckeroo pound rupee credits are backed by a gold standard.
> 
> ...




I have plenty of satan $ to share around if your interested in a trade.


----------



## joeno (6 May 2020)

kahuna1 said:


> Americas policy is far worse than Sweden ...
> 
> Just to show how Trump ... Gates ... Buffet ... Bezos and the rest really care !!




Sweden doing worse than their other scandi cousins also correlates to the amount of politicizing they have been doing.

I disagree Gates and Buffet can be compared to the likes of Trump. They donate their money to charities fighting corona and raising awareness. Gates especially raised a lot of awareness about the impact of deadly viruses and tried to bring people together to fight it together with the help of science and logic.

Trump is just a liar and idiot. He's a living joke out of a dystopian comedy movie.


----------



## joeno (6 May 2020)

> Interesting @noirua , does th US figure include the gold own overseas but stored in the US like when the german gold that Germany tried unsuccessfully from memory to bring home.likewise the domestic gold.
> But it indeed keep things in perspective.
> The US remains the key wealth and global superpower but it is indeed in the situation France and the UK were at the early 1900's.a waning superpower.
> investment wise, i still look at NYSE indicators and do not even bother looking at the Chinese or HK ones to trade.
> it says it all as does the hysteria around Trump we do not see replicated against the Chinese leader.just my opinion..




The Chinese government is an oligarchy. It is not a great system. Their actions in the South China Seas have been controversial. They have also imprisoned some Uyghurs who were involved in terrorist attacks.

But the meme level repetitive anti-China agenda is perplexing. People act like the US government is monumentally more civil and benign. In what way? They started a huge war not that long time ago justified by an incredible lie there they found WMDs. And Bush's centrist America was far more peaceful than Trump's ultra-right is.

Not to mention countless regime change operations to meddle and screw with the political stability in other countries:
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/United_States_involvement_in_regime_change


----------



## kahuna1 (7 May 2020)

joeno said:


> I disagree Gates and Buffet can be compared to the likes of Trump.




Fair enough .... neither has paid tax ... avoids it ...
charity ... favorite is planned parenthood and its links and founder Sanger is illuminating. 

Its window dressing .... Gates since becoming a charity has doubled his net worth.
When faced with say a tax the rich ... or just them paying tax at say 35% like someone on 100k ... something they had claimed to back, BOTH ... went troppo on Warren then Sanders ... along with their papers.

Buffett and there ilk ... play gods whilst the masses crumble ... he gave to one very rich hospital in NY whilst well most crumbled ... Bloomberg gave massive amounts to curry political favor and his old university ... 1 billion to get elected as Zombie President ... 

It is of course theirs to give as they like. FMG guy Andrew Forrest ... does his best .... BUT pays tax ... massively so ... Gina Rhinehart is the backer of Australia's climate denial group ... for person ends and her coal mines. 

What they do with their money if they pay tax ... similar to the rest of us is their business, in the case of the USA ones ... well they pay at 10% if that ... verses most on 35%. Bezos ... has not paid tax ... ever to anyone.

Something wrong with this ... quite obviously very wrong with the worlds richest man never having paid tax or the company ever paid a dividend. 

USA sponsors ... protects ... and encourages ... global tax theft from other nations. 

Australia still is loosing upwards of 30 billion a year via these mainly USA based cretins.

Very good articles on  this ... here ... 
https://www.michaelwest.com.au/top-40-tax-dodgers-2019/

Meanwhile ... virus keeps on ticking. 
Stay safe and hoping for a few zero days .... followed by 14 then 28 days of them.
NZ sadly got a single case .... we had a blip ...

USA just ... well ... sent everyone back to work with the new Virus strain that spreads more easily and appears likely ... you can get it again  and again.


----------



## Garpal Gumnut (7 May 2020)

joeno said:


> Sweden doing worse than their other scandi cousins also correlates to the amount of politicizing they have been doing.
> 
> I disagree Gates and Buffet can be compared to the likes of Trump. They donate their money to charities fighting corona and raising awareness. Gates especially raised a lot of awareness about the impact of deadly viruses and tried to bring people together to fight it together with the help of science and logic.
> 
> Trump is just a liar and idiot. He's a living joke out of a dystopian comedy movie.



I would agree. 

Trump is a joke. 

Gates, Buffett, Twiggy and Gina are just doing what I would do if I were in their situation. Minimising their tax as the government don't spend it too wisely to paraphrase Kerry Packer.

Being a person of means gives me an advantage over many others. 

I can post in ASF and influence an extraordinary class of people, literate, numerate, wise, humorous and fecund.  Even the one-eyed such as @kahuna1 

gg


----------



## kahuna1 (7 May 2020)

*The Chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff: “We don’t know” where the coronavirus began, but “the weight of evidence is that it was natural and not man-made”* and “that it was probably not intentional[ly]” released from a Chinese lab. Secretary of State Mike Pompeo, however, insisted that “there is significant evidence that this came from the laboratory,” but conceded that “We don’t have certainty […] We’re all trying to figure out the right answer.” Dr. Anthony Fauci, the U.S. intelligence community, and the “Five Eyes” international intelligence alliance have all said that the coronavirus “was not manmade or genetically modified,” suggesting that it “evolved in nature,” and likely originated in a Chinese wet market as a result of “natural human and animal interaction.” (The Hill / Politico / CNN)

*Dr. Anthony Fauci, contradicting both Trump and Secretary of State Mike Pompeo, said the best scientific evidence shows that the coronavirus did not originate in a Chinese laboratory*. “If you look at the evolution of the virus in bats and what’s out there now,” Fauci said, the scientific evidence “is very, very strongly leaning toward this could not have been artificially or deliberately manipulated.” Fauci added that he doesn’t subscribe to the theory that someone found the virus in the wild, brought it into a lab, and then allowed it to escape and spread to the rest of the world, saying “Everything about the stepwise evolution over time strongly indicates that [this virus] evolved in nature and then jumped species.” (National Geographic)


Job interviews for new judges below !!




I like the guy with the  tattoo ... new chief justice ? He seems  sane ... compared to Trump.


----------



## bux2000 (7 May 2020)

I am not ultra tech so forgive for my bumbling but what I find interesting is

https://www.epainassist.com/infections/which-countries-have-malaria

Compared to

https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/

but I am probably wrong


----------



## rederob (7 May 2020)

bux2000 said:


> I am not ultra tech so forgive for my bumbling but what I find interesting is
> 
> https://www.epainassist.com/infections/which-countries-have-malaria
> 
> ...



You mean interesting in what way?


----------



## Spets (7 May 2020)

Interesting news from NYC funeral directors:

"Michael Lanza, funeral director at Colonial Funeral Home:

To be honest with you, all of the death certificates, they’re writing COVID on all the death certificates whether they had a positive test, whether they didn’t. "

https://www.dailywire.com/news/watc...directors-skeptical-about-coronavirus-numbers


----------



## tech/a (7 May 2020)

Oldest trick in the book.

If you dont want to have truthful figures muddy the waters with 
misinformation.

There are agendas everywhere.
Meanwhile the equivalent of the deaths
in the twin tours occurs each and every day.


----------



## rederob (7 May 2020)

tech/a said:


> Meanwhile the equivalent of the deaths in the twin *tours *occurs each and every day.



Tour de France, and Giro d'Italia?
I blame those drivers on the wrong side of the road .


----------



## ducati916 (7 May 2020)

kahuna1 said:


> Sigh ... if you dont understand economics or currencies ... maybe dont comment. USA is not printing money, if it did so, its currency would implode. It is yes expanding the money supply, by issuing bonds and then buying them back, but, to create money out of thin air would cause a currency collapse, not a crash a collapse.
> 
> Eventually one day ... the bonds its bought will either be sold and the trade reversed, or they will mature .... or they will default and that's more likely ,.... given the leaders.
> 
> ...




Actually sdajii is correct. 




Defined as:

_The currency component of M1, sometimes called "money stock currency," is defined as currency in circulation outside the U.S. Treasury and Federal Reserve Banks. Data on total currency in circulation are obtained weekly from balance sheets of the Federal Reserve Banks and from the U.S. Treasury. Weekly currency in circulation data are published each week on the Federal Reserve Board's H.4.1 statistical release "Factors Affecting Reserve Balances of Depository Institutions and Condition Statement of Federal Reserve Banks." Vault cash is reported on the FR 2900 and subtracted from total currency in circulation. For institutions that do not file the FR 2900, vault cash is estimated using data reported on the Call Reports._

The H.4.1 data:




Clearly seen is the increase in (hand-held) currency.

The 'reason' that the US dollar doesn't blow up in a hyper-inflationary scenario is that it is currently the 'Reserve Currency' and thereby serves the same purpose as gold did prior to Bretton Woods in 1947 and Nixon in August 1971. Of course, that could change...

jog on
duc


----------



## kahuna1 (7 May 2020)

ducati916 said:


> Actually sdajii is correct.




Also sadly broke ...

I better trade in my multiple masters degrees and 38 years in finance ....

Sigh. More pain.

Fed buys bonds .... fed buys bonds with paper it issues .... its effect is to drive down bond prices and influence the longer end of the yield curve.

So Fed buys IBM bond and gives a piece of paper equal value for that ... bond. Same thing .... one is a debit ... one is a credit ...yes it looks as though the money supply has expanded ... so too has debits and credits all over the place depending on what your looking at .... but the SUM total is ZERO .... one goes up .... one goes down ... US fed holding of bonds goes UP .... US fed issue of notes or promises to pay others goes up .... one is an asset on the feds books and the other a liability. 

Fed in the USA is a private company ....  it however is supported by treasury.

Any central bank can only control the cash rate or the exchange rate. USA does not have a fixed rate of exchange.

Cash rate as in overnight cash rate.
It sets a target and then act to make this occur.

This MMT and QE1.2.3.4.5. ... buying securities to support the long term financing of the nation and banks and now basically any corporate is ... a shell game.

The Fed by doing this ...  essentially takes on the risk. Of course .... in a rising yield curve environment this works. Or if the yield of the bonds it buys, sometimes 30 year ones ... remains below the rate they purchased.

Not so many years ago ... post GFC the Fed on paper was broke. Of course the USA goverment and treasury will support them. Post GFC they added 3.5 trillion in assets to their balance sheet, they purchased the bonds .... and then gave a piece of paper to whom they purchased it from. NOT PRINTING MONEY .... one purchase ... ONE SALE .... net zero. What it did do, and was designed to do was to make the asset price go UP and the YIELD down .... it worked,

Now they are doing it again without ever having gotten rid of the 3.5 trillion and expect to add 4.5 trillion the leveraged up rescue package and then on top of that the USA rescue package and revenue falling in a heap ... tax ... need to borrow 3 trillion in the next 3 months and likely USA expects this pile of poo to hold together when its likely to be say 6 trillion govt side plus 4.5 trillion via bailing out Wall Street. Basically an increase of 10 trillion in borrowings or well ... 50% more. Not quite ... as corporate s not able to borrow normally ... need the support of the govt backing them. Even if they dont have a viable business as is the case with most oil companies below $60- oil ....

I dont know how this ends, but .... likely in tears with the USA fed ... run yet again by an investment banker ... has no limit to the stuff they will pull to support Wall Street. It may be the USA fed balance sheet trying to keep the long end down goes from 3.5 trillion to 8 trillion .... not a good thing.

Not a good look. Not something the rest of the world will be amused about as time goes on.

But NO ... it is not printing money ... one debit and one credit ... of equal size make ZERO.

SO nope ....  this is how it works ... sorry to pop your bubble.


----------



## InsvestoBoy (7 May 2020)

kahuna1 said:


> But NO ... it is not printing money ... one debit and one credit ... of equal size make ZERO.
> 
> SO nope ....  this is how it works ... sorry to pop your bubble.




Anyone can go and listen to last weeks MacroVoices interview with Dr Lacy Hunt (one of the worlds most successful bond investors and storied economists) to understand this.

Or people can continue to just play along with the Central Bank perception management game, they want you to think they are printing, because they are completely and utterly neutered in their ability to operate in the modern financial world where "money" is actually bank balance sheet capacity to generate offshore funding in Eurodollars.

Dr Hunt describes it very aptly as a duration swap. The Fed takes a long duration asset onto its balance sheet and places a very short duration asset (bank reserve) onto the balance sheet of a commercial bank.

Anyone can go and read Jeffrey Sniders blog on the Alhambra Partners website, or listen to his many podcast interviews on MacroVoices, to understand that not only is it a duration swap, but it is a duration swap where the commercial bank gets an essentially inert and useless asset that they can't even really loan against, because the Fed and other CBs have no idea how the modern financial system operates.


----------



## kahuna1 (7 May 2020)

InsvestoBoy said:


> Fed and other CBs have no idea how the modern financial system operates




I would of course totally agree with what you have said.
The CB ... requires banks to hold assets and bonds, it is ... well ... more complex when they go buy rubbish with low rating and swap it for a note that the CB accepts as capital on their requirements of reserves.

Not only a duration swap ... buy a 30 year bond and give say a 3 week note or 6 month one ... the CB is taking on the DURATION risk ... the CREDIT risk and in effect skewing the whole yield curve and time value of money. USA Treasury issues bonds to finance its long term debt .... Central bank walks along and buys it off a bank ... negating any issuing effect or cover other than basically the USA having no real long term funding.

Strange world ... as I said ... it works ... till it does not.
As to currency ... supporting it. The US fed has no ammo and no assets and virtually no tools to control this side of the equation. Normal one is to raise rates to stop capital outflow and in effect pay for it.

This ponzi scheme has held together ... barely post GFC ... but given the global demand for more money and debt and deficits, the game is going to get interesting as time winds on. Lending to the USA federal govt with likely 30 trill in debt and I dont count social security as an asset as its underfunded 30 trillion. So USA fed debt 30 trillion GDP shrinks a bit to say 20 ... that's 150% debt to GDP but at best and adding another 3.5 trill it still holds of GFC junk and say a NET 3 trill more CV19 .... 36.5 trill debt verses 20 trill GDP is well 182.5% debt to GDP and against this it has, well income federally of 3 trillion on a GDP of 20 trillion so 15% income verses 182.5% Debt and its going to try and spend 2 trillion more than is coming in every year.

Amusing ... but a failed state does this stuff.

What occurs ... bonds collapse ... or currency ... is unknown. China once held 1.3 trill and was told it could only have USA treasuries ... about 10 years ago. Its GDP has doubled, trade imbalance tripled with the USA and its holdings of USA junk ? Whoops treasuries is a mere 1 trillion.

Makes my head hurt thinking about this and predicting what the hell they try and pull ... post CV19 and 2020 is, well ... a one way street. Other nations actually collect tax .... give a stuff about their population and well ... bond investors are not stupid over time.

We shall see of course.


----------



## tech/a (7 May 2020)

Interesting Run down Kahuna and Insev

What is the best and worst case guess guys as to a likely outcome.
As the GFC's CV19 etc come along every x years its likely
that we will see 2 or 3 in the next 30 years
there has to be a time where saturation occurs.

Can the Debt be written off?
Partially if not all.
Can there be a reset--re value


----------



## InsvestoBoy (7 May 2020)

tech/a said:


> Interesting Run down Kahuna and Insev
> 
> What is the best and worst case guess guys as to a likely outcome.
> As the GFC's CV19 etc come along every x years its likely
> ...




Short/medium term I do believe the likely outcome is that dollar shortage "spasms", like 2008, 2011, 2014-16 and 2019 keep occurring, and outside of US tech stocks, most markets are priced accordingly.

I do believe in the long term there will be an eventual reset where the accumulated debt which is impossible to repay in real terms, will be repaid in nominal terms with inflated currency. I don't think this event can be timed which is why I keep a hefty chunk of my net worth in physical gold.

But I *think* we are a long way off of that yet, because:
1. There is no real alternative today to the system as it is.
2. There is no recognition by those with the power to change the system that the system is broken or even requires changing.

Thus the existing system will continue to limp along, progressively losing limbs as it steps on dollar landmines until both of those things change.


----------



## jbocker (7 May 2020)

tech/a said:


> Can there be a reset--re value



Gee Tech
if GFC and the Virus weren't RESET buttons, then I don't f'know what is! I am starting to conjure very frightening thoughts!


----------



## rederob (7 May 2020)

jbocker said:


> Gee Tech
> if GFC and the Virus weren't RESET buttons, then I don't f'know what is! I am starting to conjure very frightening thoughts!



It's a house of cards.
The USA aces it by being holding world's "reserve" currency.
To me the issue is how long can they retain this mantle, as they have accelerated losing it by not doing what China did in locking down their nation to COVID-19 as soon as practicable.  Many years ago I thought the Euro was in with a chance, but too many nations within it are effectively bankrupt.
Anyhow, while the USA retains its reserve status, other nations will keep propping it up by buying their increasingly worthless bonds.


----------



## Garpal Gumnut (7 May 2020)

gg


----------



## Dona Ferentes (7 May 2020)

rederob said:


> It's a house of cards.
> 
> .. *other nations* will keep propping it up by buying their increasingly worthless bonds.



oh no, that's not the case. By late March, it was on for young and old. They're buying their own!!



> The *Fed* pledged to buy as much government-backed debt as needed to bolster the markets for housing and Treasury *bonds*. It announced that it would buy corporate *bonds*, including the riskiest investment-grade debt, for the first time in its history


----------



## kahuna1 (7 May 2020)

tech/a said:


> What is the best and worst case guess guys as to a likely outcome.




Honestly .... to give any prediction there is a lot more needed to be known about CV19.

Top of my list is vaccine. If its even possible ?
How long does immunity last ?
How long till vaccine ?

USA abdicated the world ... in WW1 and only joined late.
In WW2 ... same thing and not till Pearl Harbor.

This ... CV19.
USA just told the world to get stuffed.
In this ... untried drugs being pushed, scientifically insane policies being pushed.

Rest of the world and USA is a mere 5% of it ... banded together for a joint vaccine .
Raised 8.2 billion USD.

*USA did not even turn up.*
This policy of isolation ... belief they are the only inventors and if they did get a vaccine, well ... it would be USA first and the rest of the world last.

There are troubling signs the virus is able to be ... caught again and again. Any vaccine is tough but the paramount question is ... like say Measles ... once you get it your immune for life. Its unlikely this vaccine if even possible will be the same.

The whole outlook ... could be no vaccine .... or one that works ok for say 12 months, one that maybe only for say 50% immunity and worse for older people say at 25%.

IF this is the case, and it seems likely it will be latter rather than sooner and possibly not the vaccine we expect, well then its down to maybe anti viral agents if you get sick ? Or prophylactics to protect against getting infected and these take even longer.

USA not only did not participate in a global effort for a vaccine for 7.5 billion people, ITS TYING to destroy the effort. Actively trying to destroy it for USA companies gains. De-funding the WHO ... which is WORLD ... and USA was a part of the world ...  what a joke. Its a disgrace and USA should be ashamed. It is NOT.

Its contribution to the 8.2 Billion USD for a vaccine research and testing was ? ZERO ... USA contributed ZERO ....  meanwhile trying to destroy the WHO. 

A Rouge State does not even come close to what I am thinking. 

I can say with high confidence no anti viral is much good being tested right now. The one USA claimed worked ... the malaria drug actually had a negative impact. Gilead's drug, Remdesivir does not work and I will elaborate latter with  facts, studies and well .. the insane ... totally insane USA policy of corruption.

USA gave the rich another tax cut late 2019 .... in the budget via overseas stolen tax ... in the first aid package aimed at the rich and big companies ... another tax cut ...  90 billion a year relief for the top 1% and its not caring about people dying ... its trying to do it bloody well again.

Not a conspiracy theory, its fact. Sad fact.

Hence the resilience of the USA market ....

Without these questions answered about the virus, everything and I mean everything is up in the air.

If you get it ... are you immune ? Its now very clear the antibody tests are USELESS ... because they get false positives and the receptors that claim you have it, do not create antibodies and it could be you had the normal Flu and its going yes ... positive. Different test ... anti body verses actual infected.

This, back to work .... USA ...
Magic rallies as we saw today 2% off the lows for USA and this is whilst they are asleep ?  Total BS.

If no vaccine ... or partial vaccine or partial immunity or as I suspect likely 2-3 years till a vaccine fully deployed .... well .... things are grim for USA.

Put Aust and NZ to one side. We MAY ... be lucky. Evil thing CV19 and its gestation period can vary and being spread asymptomatic ... showing no symptoms or even feeling ill .. then your body looses the battle and it becomes full blown ... 6 weeks latter ? So so hard to get to zero.

USA ... well ... they are not even bothering to test in any serious way.
Test they do .... 10% are coming back positive.
USA 10%
Italy 2%
Spain 2%
Germany 1%
Aust and NZ 0.1%

Eu nations locked down for 50 days on the main ... forget idiots in Sweden. Nice girls but, well ... stupid.

Comparing USA to Germany ... one with massive contact tracing and 10 times LESS cases ... whilst not optimal to go back to work, and they want cases under 200 a day for 80 million plus .... so some ways to go ... USA is no where near this.

Cruelty of this would be if you can get it again ... and again ... its like the common flu.
Each year, RNA virus's always mutate and a new version but 10 times as deadly as the flu.

Given the corruption of the USA healthcare system and Trump is still pushing even the Malaria drug which killed 11 people .... I hold no hopes or not high hopes that direction.

That, with hundreds of institutions globally ... universities and bio companies and vaccine makers striving to get a vaccine or an anti viral to make the thing even half as deadly with few side effect ... takes time.

USA under its rulers, Obama, Bush and Clinton and so on .... over the years ...slashed funding for public health and safety and ignored and again cut funding global efforts, trying now to destroy the World Health Organization ... the first word being the operative one, its role in the UN is ... well ... sabotage ... not fund or worse in every area from Climate issues, to war crimes to world vaccinations to emergency food aid and so on.

USA has ... well just told the other 7.2 billion ... get stuffed on CV19. Much like it did to the 330 mullion people minus say 100k who ... well matter.

Too many questions with no answers. None of them encouraging despite the market looking fine, reality is USA has sailed upon a course that ensures destruction.

ENSURES.

Infections will ebb and wain and rise and fall. Giving your people no choice but to go back to work, not allowing or even paying 25% of the unemployment claims and now 44 out of 50 states are back to work ?

USA compared to Germany is 10 times if not 50 times ... due to lack of testing and contact tracing more behind. Compared to Australia and NZ ... at 0.1% of tests positive or USA getting 100 times MORE positives and since its very infected it should minimum be testing DOUBLE of not triple ...

USA is assured, sadly assured I suspect of 1,000 deaths a day in2020 ... so my top end of 500,000 deaths so Trump can ... well .. claim victory ?

This risks, well ... total collapse of society. Will Trump try war with China ? Or confiscating their bonds ? Swine flu which killed a similar amount came from USA. Whilst China ... dealing with a new virus had no idea what it was and came totally clean or ... well more clean on the 19th January 2020 and WHO sent out on the 20th a panicked release then more and more so till the 30th Jan 2020 emergency, re-writing history or a revisionist propaganda to cover up sheer stupidity gets us no where.

It came from a bat !! No matter what we did, it would spread and some nations did a lot better and Canada which has 3 times the overseas visitors ... well its HALF the deaths and HALF the cases NOW and likely it will be a much smaller fraction of Trumps death toll.

*Minimum as I said 128k deaths June 30th 2020 for USA and 1.7 million estimate infected or reported for USA.*

They did update their models a few days after I said this.

Minimum and its seems stupid *250k deaths by end of 2020 for USA* ... I revise this as more than likely DOUBLE that ...* DOUBLE and 500k deaths by end of 2020*.

Why ? Well I am sure you have seen the idiot protestors with guns in Michigan and Trump egging them on via twitter, the Fox news along with Murdoch media diminishing the virus. We have Sky news here and the Awful Australian and some other rags ...

The virus ... loves idiots !!
Love love loves them ... to DEATH.

I have too many questions and no answers. None of them good. If anything getting worse as the idiots in states say like Georgia with rising infections and everything is open again ? Or Florida which rejected most claims for unemployment and basically people are starving ...

This, dwarfs any crisis of the past. Forget other puny terrorist threats.
Strangely the more likely your to be infected and that being poor and of color or just poor whites with awful medical cover, the more likely you are to be in the USA needing to work and work in high contact jobs.

Perfect ... your hairdresser ... living with 16 others in a house, your server on $3.40 an hour plus tips ... cough cough as she collects your food. on and on and on ...

I am being serious, not worried too much about Australia, but where is the USA in November with zero chance of a vaccine ? Who has Trump ashed out at ?

As someone mentioned on this thread, who catches it in the meantime ?

I wish it was not so, but sadly it is. Not being alarmist, but it appears, and its becoming clearer the new strain of the virus that spreads more rapidly is even harder to get a vaccine for.

Airplanes with seating for 100 with 20 passengers ?

Time will tell and patience is a virtue. I am not about to rush back into, well ... what appears to be not a good situation. Unless I get paid to take on risk and buy something with a moat for safety or in the case of shares a lot lower than here, I will take my missing the boat this time around.

Sorry no answers, just questions and ones that for me cut to the issue.
I dont care the USA is going back to work. Unless your insane, things like Cinemas will remain vacant, Las Vegas will have 20 % if that occupancy, I note Cruise liners selling tickets for August ? To where ? No other nation will let them in !! Mexico wants a wall NOW ... to keep the infected OUT.

Structurally ... its possible the foundations of the whole society are built upon a sinkhole. When will Australia let overseas visitors back in ? Migrants ? Overseas students ?

Not many in finance have even thought this out. Some exceptions of course.

Some sadly always predicting the end of the world and I find myself for the 3rd time in 21 years, not predicting the end of it, but ... extremely concerned and demanding ... DEMANDING ... if people want my money ... I demand a much greater risk premium and lower prices I pay for assets.

Some I would not touch, never do. Just too hard. Media and Airlines ...  biotech without any drugs in testing ...

For now, happy with where I am on things asset wise.


----------



## kahuna1 (7 May 2020)

UK has done if anything worse.

30,000 deaths ... so without modelling ... say 50k by June 2020 .... 100 k by end of 2020 ?

Herd immunity looks likely a myth with the new strain ... you get NO immunity or partial ... at best.

USA and UK look equally stupid. Strange the convict colony seems to be doing well.


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## rederob (7 May 2020)

Dona Ferentes said:


> oh no, that's not the case. By late March, it was on for young and old. They're buying their own!!



A large slab of US debt has been bought by overseas entities:


Hopefully the trend of recent years will see it drop from a third to a quarter, and continue lower.


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## bux2000 (7 May 2020)

↑Hi Red
I am not ultra tech so forgive for my bumbling but what I find interesting is

https://www.epainassist.com/infections/which-countries-have-malaria

Compared to

https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/

but I am probably wrong 

You mean interesting in what way?

Well in my clumsy way I was just comparing countries with high population density and poor sanitation etc were to be hit hardest with Covid........ however it appears at this stage Countries like India, Pakistan Indonesia, Nigeria etc who have been dealing with malaria for years have been fairing pretty well.  

bux


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## rederob (7 May 2020)

kahuna1 said:


> Honestly .... to give any prediction there is a lot more needed to be known about CV19.
> 
> Top of my list is vaccine. If its even possible ?
> How long does immunity last ?
> How long till vaccine ?



Assuming a vaccine is developed, producing it at necessary scale will not be easy for lots of reasons.
It will also be interesting to see how distribution is prioritised as 6-7 billion shots won't be produced overnight!


----------



## rederob (7 May 2020)

bux2000 said:


> ↑Hi Red
> Well in my clumsy way I was just comparing countries with high population density and poor sanitation etc were to be hit hardest with Covid........ however it appears at this stage Countries like India, Pakistan Indonesia, Nigeria etc who have been dealing with malaria for years have been fairing pretty well.
> bux



Currently there seems no rhyme or reason as to who gets hardest hit or why, especially with regard to death rates.
In terms of population density, you would expect Singapore and Hong Kong to have copped it hard. Instead we have New York City, which is slightly less dense. 
Then we have France next door to Germany, but Germany's death rate is a quarter that of France - go figure.
It's interesting that you picked up on the community health infrastructure that exists in third world countries.  I reckon you are on to something there.


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## basilio (7 May 2020)

rederob said:


> A large slab of US debt has been bought by overseas entities:
> 
> 
> Hopefully the trend of recent years will see it drop from a third to a quarter, and continue lower.




There is no way the US debt can be "repaid" in any conventional sense. It is now out of control and if our current economic models are employed there can only be mass destruction of the currency and economy.

The other option which sidesteps this fate is formal adoption of Modern Monetary Theory. Given the current option I think there is no choice.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Modern_Monetary_Theory


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## Garpal Gumnut (7 May 2020)

bux2000 said:


> ↑Hi Red
> I am not ultra tech so forgive for my bumbling but what I find interesting is
> 
> https://www.epainassist.com/infections/which-countries-have-malaria
> ...





rederob said:


> Currently there seems no rhyme or reason as to who gets hardest hit or why, especially with regard to death rates.
> In terms of population density, you would expect Singapore and Hong Kong to have copped it hard. Instead we have New York City, which is slightly less dense.
> Then we have France next door to Germany, but Germany's death rate is a quarter that of France - go figure.
> It's interesting that you picked up on the community health infrastructure that exists in third world countries.  I reckon you are on to something there.




Part of the reason a learned friend told me of the difference in rates of coronavirus can be put down to the following

If you cannot or don't test for it you will not find it. Many countries like USA, UK, India didn't

Italians live longer, thus more older people, a susceptible age group, died. 

Spain and Italy do not have the social reserve of Commonwealth countries, hugging, kissing etc. a sure fire way to spread it.

Not many people in poorer countries in Africa live beyond 60, if hunger don't get you HIV will.
Although it is present in poo it mostly spreads by cough via surfaces to the next one. Indians wash.

Many countries underestimate the rates because the head honcho may get lynched if they do
The USA is not a country to get sick in if you are poor or out of a job, medical insurance ceases then.
Any country that was late in social isolation lockdown got it. Australia and NZ avoided a bullet by just 2 weeks. 
gg


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## SirRumpole (7 May 2020)

In countries like India , Pakistan, Bangladesh, people just die in the streets and are buried/cremated without autopsy so you would never know if they died of covid or not.

The death rate in these countries would be seriously underestimated.


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## kahuna1 (7 May 2020)

rederob said:


> Assuming a vaccine is developed, producing it at necessary scale will not be easy for lots of reasons.
> It will also be interesting to see how distribution is prioritised as 6-7 billion shots won't be produced overnight!




USA does not care ... its abdicated its role as any leader of the world. It is a Rogue state. Its deliberately trying to sabotage any and all efforts of the rest of the world.

Strong words ... but true.

As to vaccine 3 different types of things they are trying. Some very hard to mass produce, others easier.

If we get a valid vaccine ... and this is a big if ... how is it delivered ? Easiest is via orally or patch ... injection harder and if one needs more than one shot to get immunity.

It is looking, likely ... longer and harder. That is even if there is an IF ?

Then we get the anti vaccine nutters and well ... Sweden good luck !!

I have no idea and speculation when ... is not possible other than knowing without TIME and that being stage 1,2 3 and 4 clinical trials which no matter what take time ... the end is likely at best say 8 months away. So early 2021 ? likely longer ... and sadly possibly never. 

What happens in the meantime ? Restaurant with 50% capacity ? For overseas mind you. If we manage to eradicate it .. different story for Australia. Planes idle for 12- 18 months likely longer till its deployed and manufactured and administered globally.

The contempt and sheer condescending nature of the USA leadership right now is astounding. Likely 500k deaths ? Golly. When they get a vaccine ... its USA USA first and F everyone else ?

Strange but I suspect another nation, China or Germany or Australia or Japan are not the spastics the USA seems to think we are. One would be foolish and stupid not to expect the 95% of the rest of the world NOT to be able to produce a vaccine PRIOR to the USA.

I sound anti USA, I am not, just their leadership by a few and Kleptocracy or Oligarchy coupled with extreme arrogance and contempt for all other life outside say 50,000 who matter in the USA. I scream for all the people of USA who will, sadly loose their lives in the meantime.


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## SirRumpole (7 May 2020)

kahuna1 said:


> USA does not care ... its abdicated its role as any leader of the world. It is a Rogue state. Its deliberately trying to sabotage any and all efforts of the rest of the world.




Under the current leadership that is true. I doubt if the majority of the population feel that way, they want their respectability back.


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## Garpal Gumnut (7 May 2020)

kahuna1 said:


> USA does not care ... its abdicated its role as any leader of the world. It is a Rogue state. Its deliberately trying to sabotage any and all efforts of the rest of the world.
> 
> Strong words ... but true.
> 
> ...




May I ask you @kahuna1 to say what aspects of American life and culture you find good and admirable. I'll ask the same of @finicky in a similar thread damning China.

gg


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## kahuna1 (7 May 2020)

SirRumpole said:


> Under the current leadership that is true. I doubt if the majority of the population feel that way, they want their respectability back.




Sadly this has been going on for a long time. USA was once great. It went to the moon. In the 1920's it was the center of the industrial world.

The will of the people, is ... well ... in a failed democracy irrelevant. Free press ? Your called communist or socialist for wanting universal healthcare.

With no valid free press .. one not motivated by advertising, such as the BBC or ABC as annoying as they are at times, and with lobbyists running affairs its got there over 40 years ...

Will not change overnight.

Its actions globally has as mentioned been ... self interest. As are all nations to some extent. WW1 until Lusitania was sunk, USA did not get involved. ....

CV19, is for the world as dire a threat as any war.

Lobbyists, CEO's ... billionaires and self interest runs the USA.

Strange thing, with 1.3 million infected, every single person will know someone infected in the USA when the dust settles. With 330 million, that's about 500k ... for someone to know ... someone who has been hit. Whilst they may not be a bestie or family,  by the end of 2020 if I am not mistaken 500k will be dead and say 3.5 million infected with the more serious form of the virus.

Things will change over time, upon reflection and no amount of Trump or corporate media will change it.

Yes send them back to work ... cough cough .... here is your sandwich. IDIOT. This course is already sailing for them.

Enough will be altered in habits to, well make any recovery ,... anemic and possibly a total collapse of society. You can make them work, you cant order them to risk their lives and go to the cinema or get on a plane or go to Vegas or take a cruise.

Certainly some will. Massive far right religious types who deny science and that VP Pence a very serious bible basher and believes the world was created in 7 days leading the task force was, is ... and will always be a sick joke. Surgeon General same  ... Dr Birx same .... Aids is gods will !! CDC and NIH led by similar people, political appointees who, well ... are fruitcakes.

USA is not the rest of the world thankfully. This is their fate. USA voted for it, that's what they have. Possibly even in 2020. Not sure given the Trump record. Then again for the religious right, as long as your anti abortion which Dr Birx the stupid woman with the scarves is and anti gays ... all is forgiven. Then we have the die hard always Republicans and well democrats are very similar ... will only ever vote for one party even when led by a moron.

Biden is no better. He plans no change to Bezos not paying tax, no changes to their healthcare system and already has 87 billionaires backing him and a pledge from one, Bloomberg to chip in a  billion to get him elected.

Nope ... change ... always must be fought for and is never given willingly. I dont mean armed conflict, but ... change takes effort and sadly, if pushed I suspect the CV19 vaccine at best is 18 months away so that's ... well ... 500 days or so. Till then ... maybe its a million dead. Many whilst recovered have shredded organs and lungs and emerging issues with strange side effects.

I dont expect any change 2020 elections ... whether its Trump again or Biden. If Trump were to be elected again, well ... I think maybe we should all start looking upon USA as some nutty dictator nation.

I know the EU with 400 million is looking at them that way. UK is led by a similar person and whilst he will parrot Trump, unlikely he with say 100 k dead and that's if he is lucky, on a par with USA, I am not sure the UK will put up with him and vote anyone .... anyone ... rather than Boris.

USA rules world markets and equity values and finance, for now. Its actions pre and post GFC were the opposite of virtually every nation and so too with this virus. They thankfully do not rule Australia or NZ or any other nation than the USA.

Trump actually tells his 70 million followers on twitter the world now respects the USA. Fox tells all its followers USA is now respected globally and a leader.

They actually believe it and well ... even with diabolical numbers they are congratulating themselves on not having a worlds worst result.  I doubt any nation actually is not looking with horror at the actions of them right now.

Like the death-toll ... his ratings are huge globally, but not for a good reason. When  your that mentally disturbed its not possible for you to understand others or compassion or empathy. Its all about them, ME ME ME ...  and they are the victim. Not the 74,000 dead, nor the million or more infected, its about their pain ... their needs.

USA is somewhat, ignoring Trump,  run for the few and needs of the few and bugger the rest.

Only way to deal with sociopaths and narcissists is to ignore them, ban them from the media and ... ignore their noise. One day I love you ... next I hate you ... lets get married .... I want to kill you. Trump is sadly this way.

Ban all mentions of Trump in media and he would go berserk. He is ignored already at G7 and G20 ... why not just DON'T  invite him ... G7 minus USA ....  G19 ...

Maybe a special meeting for him .... with actors like a children's table at a party. Or since he has played 249 days of golf so far, get him playing golf when the actual meetings and votes are going on ? Not that the USA is going to offer anything positive for the world. Quite the opposite. Last G7 he insisted the communique called the virus the Wuhan Virus and as such no communique was released. Same at most other global meeting of late.

CV19 was fake ... So too climate change and in Madrid, USA sent no one ... well sent Australia to sabotage it. We burnt down after that so not sure we will do it again. Then again Morrison took a lump of coal into parliament not so long ago.


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## Joe90 (7 May 2020)

You'd have to think the US is ripe for civil war/revolution if the under privileged were to suddenly become aware of the crap hand their elite are dealing them, organise themselves, and revolt.


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## ducati916 (8 May 2020)

kahuna1 said:


> 1. Also sadly broke ...
> 
> 2. I better trade in my multiple masters degrees and 38 years in finance ....
> 
> ...




1. Not a relevant argument.

2.. Arguing a logical fallacy: the 'white coat syndrome'. Irrelevant and without merit.

3. Incorrect. Fed does not buy bonds by issuing 'paper'. The Fed creates a 'reserve account'.

4. This is a more nuanced point: up until the COVID issue arose, the Fed would never deal directly with other than the prime dealers: JPM, etc. The Fed are buying everything (or as near dammit) but they still deal through the prime dealers. IBM however will get cash. This is because IBM want to pay their employees/dividends/whatever.

I note that you have avoided addressing the evidence, namely:




*The currency component of M1, sometimes called "money stock currency," is defined as currency in circulation outside the U.S. Treasury and Federal Reserve Banks. *_Data on total currency in circulation are obtained weekly from balance sheets of the Federal Reserve Banks and from the U.S. Treasury. _*Weekly currency in circulation data are published each week on the Federal Reserve Board's H.4.1 statistical release *_"Factors Affecting Reserve Balances of Depository Institutions and Condition Statement of Federal Reserve Banks." Vault cash is reported on the FR 2900 and subtracted from total currency in circulation. For institutions that do not file the FR 2900, vault cash is estimated using data reported on the Call Reports._

_

_

jog on
duc


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## ducati916 (8 May 2020)

InsvestoBoy said:


> 1. Anyone can go and listen to last weeks MacroVoices interview with Dr Lacy Hunt (one of the worlds most successful bond investors and storied economists) to understand this.
> 
> 2. Or people can continue to just play along with the Central Bank perception management game, they want you to think they are printing, because they are completely and utterly neutered in their ability to operate in the modern financial world where "money" is actually bank balance sheet capacity to generate offshore funding in Eurodollars.
> 
> ...




1. If you provide the link, I will listen.

2. Eurodollars is a separate (although related) subject to the one initially raised.

3. This corrects the inaccurate assertion made by Mr Kahuna. A bank reserve on a commercial bank's Balance Sheet however is not 'inert' (see argument in [4]). Commercial banks can most certainly issue loans against this 'asset'. This is commonly referred to as the 'money multiplier'. Whether they choose to do so, is however, quite another matter.

4. I have read some of his articles. While (in general) I do not disagree with what he has to say, he is unfortunately such a poor writer (my opinion) he becomes tedious to read.

jog on
duc


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## kahuna1 (8 May 2020)

ducati916 said:


> The Fed creates a 'reserve account'




Really ? Piece of paper ... or an account ... same thing.



ducati916 said:


> This corrects the inaccurate assertion made by Mr Kahuna.




Are you serious ?

Ignore me, as you should. Google those PHD's and professors. Boring or not. They are however experts and you ... are refuting them.

Actually stupidly disputing even a basic accounting to postulate your pet theory ?
Debit ... credit ....  piece of paper ... or accounting entry in account ? Your stupid theory seems to forget the repurchases ... which any federal reserve does and they are NOT accounting entries they are REPO's and have dates on them with maturities. But you know best ... I must have imagined the central bank doing repos ... or reverse repos as needed to adjust liquidity every day. So too ... everyone with even a basic knowledge of market operations of central banks.

No we all have keycard accounts ... even if they did ... same thing ... you walk into a bank with cash ... they put an entry into your account. Clearly you dont even understand the basics of accounting. Whether its a piece of paper or something recorded electronically, to colloquially refer to it as a piece of paper and many do actually get receipts when depositing .... and then have some person dispute it.

Far out.

You sadly are beyond help. This is not a white coat argument ... its meat and potatoes ... so anyone even those with less familiarity with it can understand. To be, told its white coat .... when I took the time to explain, well ... a logical fallicy ? Faulty reasoning ?

Possibly in your world. Everything is faulty. Even PHD's and simple accounting does not exist. Google does not exist and you cant even Google the names kindly provided because it may pop your delusional bubble ?

How this works is neither an opinion or something even a person with basic knowledge fails to understand. That even basic undeniable accounting and processes do not exist, in your universe, possibly you could explain how a deposit or bond repo or swap works in your universe ?  Please include accounting entries as I have ... debits and credits. Or bits of paper promises to pay ... such as I have. ... its what they are whether electronic or ... well even cash notes.

We are all ears ? Please dazzle us !!


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## tech/a (8 May 2020)

kahuna1 said:


> Really ? Piece of paper ... or an account ... same thing.
> 
> 
> 
> ...




I just love restrained anger in Debate

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=yTmWIXyhN8Q&feature=share

carry on


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## kahuna1 (8 May 2020)

tech/a said:


> I just love restrained anger in Debate




More disbelief would be more accurate.

Not about to go round and round on this topic, or others. When one gets to the quick of their beliefs, and I have taken the time over the years to try and understand people who refute a sceintific irrefutable fact and deny any and all scientific clinical facts, ones finds when you ask even the basics, they dispute and refute any and all of them.

Not sure what part of debits and credits ... is missing ... or what pet theory about the world this issue hinges upon for the gentleman. Its no different than cash ... deposit into bank ... you get the debit and empty wallet and credit is the increase in your account balance and yep ... maybe a receipt. Banks books ... a credit for cash held ... a debit for the liability of the customers deposit.

Same for a central bank ... buying a bond ... whether via repo of fixed time frame and ... or a credit in the deposit account they hold ... you surrender the bond at a fixed agreed value ... times-frame and duration and either get a credit in your account or a piece of paper ... a promise to pay which you then can go out and trade time and time again until it matures and then the central bank repays it with a credit to your account ... or cash ...

I  am awaiting the gents explanation for the way things work in the alternate universe with great anticipation and barely concealed humor at what will be likely a fascinating journey into his world.

Shared my own, factual not opinion. Its how it works, always has for the past 4,000 years. Debits credits, promises to pay and so on.

Many things I say are opinion, open and welcome to debate and differing views. 

Accounting ... debits and credits is ...not something that is an opinion


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## ducati916 (8 May 2020)

kahuna1 said:


> 1. Really ? Piece of paper ... or an account ... same thing.
> 
> 
> 
> ...




The question at issue is clear:




Which was in response to this:




The issue is clouded somewhat by imprecise terminology: viz. 'printing'. Printing is commonly referred to as a credit expansion, whereby 'money' is created out of thin air. However if we take the narrower meaning of 'money' to mean actual currency that you or I could use, which is M1 money, defined as:

*The currency component of M1, sometimes called "money stock currency," is defined as currency in circulation outside the U.S. Treasury and Federal Reserve Banks. *_Data on total currency in circulation are obtained weekly from balance sheets of the Federal Reserve Banks and from the U.S. Treasury. _*Weekly currency in circulation data are published each week on the Federal Reserve Board's H.4.1 statistical release *_"Factors Affecting Reserve Balances of Depository Institutions and Condition Statement of Federal Reserve Banks." Vault cash is reported on the FR 2900 and subtracted from total currency in circulation. For institutions that do not file the FR 2900, vault cash is estimated using data reported on the Call Reports._

Evidence Exhibit A




We see that 'money' as defined has jumped by (almost) $1000B (or $1T).

Evidence Exhibit B.




On a weekly basis, from 15 April 2020 to 22 April 2020 currency has increased +$5,971M.

That is the type of money the man in the street understands. If we include M2 expansion:

Evidence Exhibit C




We see an expansion of (almost) $2T, defined as:

_*M2 includes a broader set of financial assets held principally by households. *M2 consists of M1 plus: (1) savings deposits (which include money market deposit accounts, or MMDAs); (2) small-denomination time deposits (time deposits in amounts of less than $100,000); and (3) balances in retail money market mutual funds (MMMFs). Seasonally adjusted M2 is computed by summing savings deposits, small-denomination time deposits, and retail MMMFs, each seasonally adjusted separately, and adding this result to seasonally adjusted M1._

So now to your objections:

1. How was your 'piece of paper' defined? It was defined in the following manner:

_"Fed buys bonds .... fed buys bonds with paper it issues .... its effect is to drive down bond prices and influence the longer end of the yield curve."_

Incorrect. The Fed credits the account of the Primary Dealer, who is selling out of held inventory. I could be generous and say I knew what you meant, but after your boast of 28 years in finance and Masters Degree etc, why should I? Had you been somewhat more polite to Mr Sadjii, possibly I would have accepted your error.

2. I see no names of PhD's, references that can be checked, etc. Currently a vacuous argument.

3. Putting aside your rudeness: how does any of that actually address the issue at hand? It would seem to be simply verbiage without a coherent point.

4. Already addressed (see [1] above).

5. The 'White Coat' refers to your claim of 28yrs in finance, Masters Degree, etc. It is a logical fallacy because it advances no premise other than: I am an expert, therefore accept what I say without question.

6. I have on 3 occasions provided you with evidence from the Fed. itself. You have declined to comment on or refute that evidence. Rather, you would rather berate me and insult me, as if that forms a coherent argument. It does not.

7. Indeed. If you notice, the only 'opinion' appearing ad nauseum, is your opinion. I have presented you with documentary evidence from a bank in the Federal Reserve system. It is not my opinion. It is fact.

Conclusion:

Mr Sadjii is correct. The US could 'print' (create out of thin air) enough 'money' to pay off all Federal debt. I also agree that this would not be perceived as a popular undertaking by the rest of the world.

jog on
duc


----------



## kahuna1 (8 May 2020)

Thank you for a view inside your universe.

I would again suggest googling the names of professors and learning what occurs verses your, well, beliefs.

The rest, who or what I am, opinions vary. It is irrelevant and debating an accounting credit verses a receipt or security is an astounding position to assert with any conviction.

With a clearly displayed lack of even a basic understating of accounting or open market operations of any central bank, sourcing rubbish to support your understanding, is quaint and well, something I will be unable to clearly correct or convince your tightly held beliefs.

Again I urge you to Google the names as suggested and learn what your postulating about.  A very imprecise view missing ... the other side of the transactions. The Holdings of Bonds and others via the USA fed and so on. One debit .... ONE credit ... you seem to be unable to understand this simple concept. USA Fed bond holdings pre GFC went from I think under 1 trillion to over 4 trillion. This being the other side to the equation and your, well ... perception of reality .....

If you find it insulting, my not accepting your reality or version of it, so be it.
I was polite, if I was not, I am sorry you feel that way.

Thank you for sharing your opinion about this topic.

I did feel it important to correct factually what the conspiracy theory about printing money involves, apologies that this offended your opinions and beliefs.

The names ... you claim were not Dr's were provided by the earlier gent ...

*Dr Lacy Hunt* (one of the worlds most successful bond investors and storied economists) to understand this.

Also suggested was ...

Anyone can go and read *Jeffrey Sniders* blog on the Alhambra Partners website, or listen to his many podcast interviews on MacroVoices, to understand that not only is it a duration swap, but it is a duration swap where the commercial bank gets an essentially inert and useless asset that they can't even really loan against, because the Fed and other CBs have no idea how the modern financial system operates.

BE afraid ... they actually may also upset your perceptions.


----------



## rederob (8 May 2020)

ducati916 said:


> The question at issue is clear:
> 
> View attachment 103287
> 
> ...



Fiat currencies have a net value of zero.
Sovereign nations cannot go broke because they can create "money" as they see fit.
@ducati should have used money in physical circulation to make his point, rather than M1 and M2 constructs, as they just muddy these waters.
MMT only begins to unravel when foreign transactions come into play and the "value" of printed money is brought to account.
In between the above, sovereign nations can do what they like and suffer the consequences.  
For example, our government has just created, on paper, a massive accounting debt.  Nobody *lent *Australia the "money" that will be paying out on JobKeeper, JobSeeker and a myriad of other programs. 
Coalition governments like to hang their hat on being good "money managers" but finance experts know this is a spurious claim.
I don't always agree with @kahuna1's wording but he's one of the smartest posters at this site.


----------



## SirRumpole (8 May 2020)

rederob said:


> Sovereign nations cannot go broke because they can create "money" as they see fit.




So hat happened to Greece when it couldn't pay it's debts ?


----------



## rederob (8 May 2020)

SirRumpole said:


> So hat happened to Greece when it couldn't pay it's debts ?



Greece uses Euro.
Have a look at Argentina. This update is behind a paywall.


----------



## kahuna1 (8 May 2020)

Here is a simple video ...
Its on just some of it ... via not one but *two Professors*. A professor is many levels above a PHD. Lets not debate that ..  please .... life is too short. 


Repos ... reverse repos ... outright purchases of treasuries .... or not govt ones but other bonds ...

All similar and work the same way. Not printing money as such, yes changing the money supply ... supporting long bond prices, duration swaps and illegal credit swaps where the USA fed swaps top tier assets for crappy non goverment bonds and in effect drives down the cost of the loan ... via its actions and well ... their CV19 Fed response is astounding. Swapping with virtually no oversight ... goverment bonds and backing to support things such as Casino debt or oil industry debt.

In a correct credit rating world the USA should be about 10 tiers lower rated than it is at about CC ...




two Professors. Not me .... not my opinion ... which is an aside.

Hope it helps other understand why, well ... Houston we have a problem .... not about printing money, more so that the USA federal reserve now is like Drexals and the junk bond kings, let alone the Fiscal side of the USA which is now run by a game show host who has gone bankrupt 6 times.

Of course maybe this will not help clear the understanding gap.

USA just hit 77,000 deaths today and near 30,000 NEW reported cases.

So astounded and ashamed for USA that  47 States now are going back to work and some totally back open.


----------



## ducati916 (8 May 2020)

kahuna1 said:


> 1. Thank you for a view inside your universe.
> 
> 2. I would again suggest googling the names of professors and learning what occurs verses your, well, beliefs.
> 
> ...




1. Not my universe. The evidence is from the St Louis Federal Reserve Bank.

2. The evidence is provided. That is my argument. Use whatever/whomever you wish to refute it.

3. Irrelevant to the identified issue.

4. Simply more of your self-inflated opinion. How about an argument supported by some evidence?

5. I have stated my position. I have provided you with the evidence. Disprove my position with argument and evidence.

6. The evidence comes from the Fed and yes, you are a very rude chap.

7. Not my opinion. Facts from the Federal Reserve.

8. You haven't corrected anything. In fact you have gone to great pains to avoid addressing the issue at all. 

9/10/11. Yes I saw Mr Investoboy's recommendations. Again, provide any argument you wish to refute my argument and evidence. Simply suggesting that I go and dig for your argument for you, is not an argument old chap.

jog on
duc


----------



## kahuna1 (8 May 2020)

ducati916 said:


> Simply more of your self-inflated opinion.




I did provide two professors as opposed to my views or dismissed shared explanations as to how these transactions work. That theirs was identical, You dismissed them, myself and wish to well ... debate ... or refute ...

Possibly this would be more apt ?



I accept your views, opinions and universe.

Hmm log ? Of not ? 

Hold your breath and I will get back to you !!


----------



## ducati916 (8 May 2020)

kahuna1 said:


> 1. Here is a simple video ...
> Its on just some of it ... via not one but *two Professors*. A professor is many levels above a PHD. Lets not debate that ..  please .... life is too short.
> 
> 
> ...





1. Yet another 'White Coat' argument. 

2. This is supposed to be an argument? No premise, no conclusion?

3. This video was made to explain the 2008/2009 interventions. While it may have relevance to the current situation, you have not utilised it as an argument or evidence to support whatever argument you are struggling to put forward.

If you go to 1.07-1.12 of your video, you will hear:

_"Fed swaps money for assets"_

At 2.54-2.59

_"Boosting loans" _

The context is: commercial banks could (assuming they could find creditworthy customers) increase the money supply through a credit expansion.

Explain how that is not credit expansion of M1 or M2?

4. In your opinion. Relevance to current discussion? Zero.

5. Again, vacuous narrative, absent any argument or evidence that pertains to the issue.

6. Clearly it hasn't helped your argument.

jog on
duc


----------



## kahuna1 (8 May 2020)

Log ? Or not a log ?

Sadly your still  trying to decide.

The process and how these Repos or outright purchases work ... is identical to 2009 GFC actions and even normal everyday REPO  ...

Hmmm ... log ... of not ?  Watch it again ... gave the links for possible learning, or expansion of your universe and understanding.


----------



## Sdajii (8 May 2020)

kahuna1 said:


> UK has done if anything worse.
> 
> 30,000 deaths ... so without modelling ... say 50k by June 2020 .... 100 k by end of 2020 ?
> 
> ...




If it's true that herd immunity can't work because you get no effective immunity, a vaccine will never be possible anyway, so we might as well get moving and stop sitting around waiting for a vaccine which will never come. If the virus itself does not induce immunity, no vaccine ever can (which is entirely likely).

The convict colony seems to be doing well because we're digging ourselves into debt to allow people to sit around doing nothing. We're going to be paying for it later with a screwed economy and disrupted business structure which will in the long term cause more harm than the virus would have.

*Cue one of Kahuna's 73 page emotional word salad rants


----------



## kahuna1 (8 May 2020)

Sdajii said:


> If it's true that herd immunity can't work because you get no effective immunity, a vaccine will never be possible anyway, so we might as well get moving and stop sitting around waiting for a vaccine which will never come. If the virus itself does not induce immunity, no vaccine ever can (which is entirely likely).




Unknown .... its a new virus. IT is possible and until one knows, sacrificing yourself if that's your thing, your welcome. 



Sdajii said:


> *Cue one of Kahuna's 73 page emotional word salad rants




So sorry to hear you lost everything. Don't be bitter, it will not help you recover.Possibly the first quote and you need to get help ? Depressed ? 

Take care


----------



## Sdajii (8 May 2020)

kahuna1 said:


> Unknown .... its a new virus. IT is possible and until one knows, sacrificing yourself if that's your thing, your welcome.




If the virus fully infecting the respiratory system doesn't cause an immune response, a vaccine can't. This may or may not be the case, but if the virus itself doesn't cause immunity, a vaccine definitely can't. Many viruses can't have vaccines made for them, no matter what level of medical technology we have or how much money and research we put in. Where's the HIV vaccine? They've been trying to make coronavirus vaccines since decades before I went to university and studied microbiology or earned my major in genetics, but it has never been successful. If it's possible to make a vaccine for this one, it definitely means having had the virus will give immunity.



> So sorry to hear you lost everything. Don't be bitter, it will not help you recover.Possibly the first quote and you need to get help ? Depressed ?




Meow! You're quite the passive aggressive little creature, aren't you? You're hardly one to be calling anyone else bitter! It was definitely a challenge to lose everything and be trapped in a place I didn't want to be in, but that was a couple of months ago, I've picked up some work and projects I'm getting stuck into and things are rapidly turning around. When you get down to zero the only way to go is up, and that tends to be a pretty invigorating experience if you have a fundamentally positive mindset.


----------



## Garpal Gumnut (8 May 2020)

I'm lost.

What are @kahuna1 and @ducati916 arguing about.

gg


----------



## Humid (8 May 2020)

Garpal Gumnut said:


> I'm lost.
> 
> What are @kahuna1 and @ducati916 arguing abo
> 
> ...





Not sure but I've run out of popcorn


----------



## Garpal Gumnut (8 May 2020)

Humid said:


> Not sure but I've run out of popcorn



Me too @Humid 

Reminds me of a time I was going to end a relationship with a girl and took her to the movies to do so after the final scene. Her granny decided to come along and carked it halfway through and I had to break it to the girl at her gran's funeral and got criticised for it. 

Ever since then I don't do any favours in a situation such as a thread like this. 

gg


----------



## Humid (8 May 2020)

Garpal Gumnut said:


> Me too @Humid
> 
> Reminds me of a time I was going to end a relationship with a girl and took her to the movies to do so after the final scene. Her granny decided to come along and carked it halfway through and I had to break it to the girl at her gran's funeral and got criticised for it.
> 
> ...



Before text messaging?


----------



## kahuna1 (8 May 2020)

Sdajii said:


> You're hardly one to be calling anyone else bitter!




Seek help ...  it is confronting the journey you are upon.



Sdajii said:


> When you get down to zero the only way to go is up, and that tends to be a pretty invigorating experience if you have a fundamentally positive mindset.




Good to hear.

Take care


Back every 10,000 increase in USA numbers .... sadly ...

Will leave it to others to take what they will, or not ... from opinions and other things on this thread and site.


----------



## rederob (8 May 2020)

Garpal Gumnut said:


> I'm lost.
> 
> What are @kahuna1 and @ducati916 arguing about.
> 
> gg



That fiat currencies are "*paper*."
Printed "money" is paper, but _*money *_can also be "created" on balance sheets, which can be paper or digital nowadays (did you ever see anyone carry their $750k in cash to the bank so they could buy their house?).
That's why @ducati916's use of M1 and M2 are a bit of a red herring.
Iran's printed money - physical paper - just had 2 zeroes removed from it, so within a nation the government can give and take as it pleases.
The bottom line is if you want a store of "*value*" it cannot be "paper."


----------



## Garpal Gumnut (8 May 2020)

rederob said:


> That fiat currencies are "*paper*."
> Printed "money" is paper, but _*money *_can also be "created" on balance sheets, which can be paper or digital nowadays (did you ever see anyone carry their $750k in cash to the bank so they could buy their house?).
> That's why @ducati916's use of M1 and M2 are a bit of a red herring.
> Iran's printed money - physical paper - just had 2 zeroes removed from it, so within a nation the government can give and take as it pleases.
> The bottom line is if you want a store of "*value*" it cannot be "paper."



Thanks @rederob 

gg


----------



## SirRumpole (8 May 2020)

Sdajii said:


> If the virus fully infecting the respiratory system doesn't cause an immune response, a vaccine can't.




 
*

*
* Australia *
*Coronavirus Cases:*
6,913
*Deaths:*
97
*Recovered:*
6,074 

Most people recover from the virus, so isn't it obvious that there is an immune response ?


----------



## kahuna1 (8 May 2020)

SirRumpole said:


> Most people recover from the virus, so isn't it obvious that there is an immune response ?




Herpes does not kill you so I am told ... its a virus ... one that keeps on giving, and giving and flaring up ...  and the question with any new virus is if it does actually give you immunity, if so ... for how long. Shingles can be caught time and time again ... measles however seems to give life long immunity.

CV19 is new, this question already has some serious questions over even short term immunity let alone longer term. All to be answered.


----------



## kahuna1 (8 May 2020)

Well the Trump rhetoric has an answer ....

China party media outlet ...

*China needs to expand the number of its nuclear warheads to 1,000 *in a relatively short time. It needs to have at least 100 Dongfeng-41 strategic missiles. We are a peace-loving nation and have committed to never being the first to use nuclear weapons, but we need a larger nuclear arsenal to curb US strategic ambitions and impulses toward China. Maybe we have to deal with challenges with stronger determination in the near future, which requires the support of the Dongfeng and Julang missiles. 

Don't be naïve. Don't assume that nuclear warheads are useless. In fact, they are being used every day as a deterrent to shape the attitudes of US elites toward China. Some Chinese experts say we don't need more nuclear weapons, I think they are as naïve as children.

https://www.globaltimes.cn/content/1187766.shtml

Bravo ... applause ... well done Mr Trump ... I cant wait for the war to distract us.

A mere limited exchange from ... well two regimes neither of which I like .... and well nuclear winter. Bravo again Mr Trump and your idiot team.


----------



## joeno (8 May 2020)

When you have the US threatening to create a nuclear winter - one would think Nuclear Arms defence is essential for guaranteeing a country's own autonomy.

https://www.ft.com/content/bf3599e4-57f3-11ea-abe5-8e03987b7b20

One can only suggest to the American leaders (assuming they are not all 100% corrupt and/or purposefully evil) to simply go on wikipedia and read about the rest of the world. Read about history and the lessons from history. Just read and learn.


----------



## macca (8 May 2020)

SirRumpole said:


> *
> 
> *
> * Australia *
> ...




the body does cure itself in most cases (fortunately) but tests are showing that quite a high percentage of those that have recovered do not have many antibodies in their system.

This increases the possibility of them catching it again, it also means that a vaccine (if we ever find one) may not work very well.

Some Virus' are quite difficult to whack because they change so often eg: the annual flu shot is not a real success because flu mutates so often.

A couple of years ago the success rate was 10%, no better than a placebo really. It seems to average about a 36-40% success rate for a virus that we a know a lot about.

Of course, the common cold is a virus and we still haven't whacked that one which is why I do my thing with Vit D, 15 years since I have had a cold/flu now.


----------



## ducati916 (9 May 2020)

rederob said:


> 1. Fiat currencies have a net value of zero.
> 
> 2. Sovereign nations cannot go broke because they can create "money" as they see fit.
> 
> ...




1. If by that you mean an intrinsic value of zero (which I think you do) I would agree. They (fiat currencies) only have value because of the coercive force used in giving them value (government/etc).

2. Slightly inaccurate: Sovereign nations that do not incur debts in other than their own currency. That has been the issue where Sovereign nations have borrowed in US dollars or whatever and cannot obtain/earn that foreign currency to pay outstanding debts. 

3. Incorrect. Read the underlined/highlighted section:

*The currency component of M1, sometimes called "money stock currency," is defined as currency in circulation outside the U.S. Treasury and Federal Reserve Banks. *_Data on total currency in circulation are obtained weekly from balance sheets of the Federal Reserve Banks and from the U.S. Treasury. _*Weekly currency in circulation data are published each week on the Federal Reserve Board's H.4.1 statistical release *_"Factors Affecting Reserve Balances of Depository Institutions and Condition Statement of Federal Reserve Banks." Vault cash is reported on the FR 2900 and subtracted from total currency in circulation. For institutions that do not file the FR 2900, vault cash is estimated using data reported on the Call Reports._

_

_
_

_

M1 details the actual 'cash in pocket' measure.

4. A discussion of MMT is beyond the scope on this thread.

5./6. See above.

7. Opinion.

jog on
duc


----------



## kahuna1 (9 May 2020)

ducati916 said:


> A discussion of MMT is beyond the scope on this thread.




You just keep postulating your pet theory which is wrong.

Any and all sources politely pointing this out are ignored, even professors, PHD's and market experts.

You apparently are the worlds expert. 

Please start a thread on MMT. Discuss your quaint, incorrect and absurd theories to your hearts content.


----------



## rederob (9 May 2020)

ducati916 said:


> 2. Slightly inaccurate: Sovereign nations that do not incur debts in other than their own currency. That has been the issue where Sovereign nations have borrowed in US dollars or whatever and cannot obtain/earn that foreign currency to pay outstanding debts.



I addressed this at #4.
Sovereign nations may have an obligation to pay a foreign debt, but they can simply default and carry on as usual, with the debt as an overhang.


ducati916 said:


> 3. Incorrect. Read the underlined/highlighted section:



You can repeat your mistake as often as you wish, but here's the truth and it's also line-itemed in the table you posted.



	

		
			
		

		
	
 Bottom line is that *paper in physical circulation* disagrees with M1 by a massive margin.  The remaining M1 components are not physical currency but, instead, "accounts."

Keeping the modern banking system afloat is a very complex matter.  However, it is impossible to avoid the fact that *paper money ultimately has no value*. I won't argue further with you on this so will instead make a very simple point that most readers will understand.  Some years back had you holidayed in the USA your physical Australian dollar could buy you USD$1.10 yet that very same dollar today (ie the unchanged physical component or "money") gets you about USD$0.64 cents.  The only thing that changed in the intervening period was a set of complex accounting arrangements within a global financial system that debased the money in your hands.  And if that does not convince you that our paper money has no value, see how you go with only Australian physical currency - aka* paper money* - on your holiday to Uzbekistan.


----------



## ducati916 (9 May 2020)

rederob said:


> 1. I addressed this at #4.
> 
> 2. Sovereign nations may have an obligation to pay a foreign debt, but they can simply default and carry on as usual, with the debt as an overhang.
> 
> ...




1. In part. Just inaccurately at your original [2]: because an insolvency or default is not really just a carry on as normal.

2. See above.

3. Two points:

(a) Your chart only goes to 2018. It is 2yrs out of date; and
(b) Read the text.

*The currency component of M1, sometimes called "money stock currency," is defined as currency in circulation outside the U.S. Treasury and Federal Reserve Banks. *_Data on total currency in circulation are obtained weekly from balance sheets of the Federal Reserve Banks and from the U.S. Treasury. _*Weekly currency in circulation data are published each week on the Federal Reserve Board's H.4.1 statistical release *_"Factors Affecting Reserve Balances of Depository Institutions and Condition Statement of Federal Reserve Banks." Vault cash is reported on the FR 2900 and subtracted from total currency in circulation. For institutions that do not file the FR 2900, vault cash is estimated using data reported on the Call Reports._

(i) The 'currency component' in 'circulation' is cash in your pocket; and
(ii) See FRB H.4.1




In 1 week: April 15 to April 22 currency in you pocket increased by $5,971M or essentially $6 Billion dollars.

4. Re. 'accounts'. Accounts are 'money'. Accounts are an expansion of the money supply. Due to the slightly more abstract nature of the original argument, vis-a-vis 'printing', it seemed easier to just provide documentary evidence of 'cash in the pocket'.

5. You are confusing 'no value' with loss of purchasing power over time due to inflation of fiat currencies.

jog on
duc


----------



## rederob (9 May 2020)

ducati916 said:


> 1. In part. Just inaccurately at your original [2]: because an insolvency or default is not really just a carry on as normal.
> 
> 2. See above.
> 
> ...



Russia, Pakistan and Argentina are examples of nations carrying on as normal after defaulting on their debts.  Many more have in recent decades.
Yes, their financial systems are impaired to the extent that there is an overhang, but the average person on the street is generally oblivious

Your repeated point about physical money in circulation is patently false.  Yes the chart is 2 years old because it's the latest available from the Federal Reserve.  Nevertheless, it is crystal clear from the charted information - yours and mine - that M1 is about twice as much as printed paper in circulation.  My chart even describes the value of the circulated note, so it is not an "accounting" item, unlike a number of those referenced under M1. 

Finally, I realise printed money has *purchasing power*, as that's its whole purpose.  That purchasing power has 2 components: internal and external.  Externally, it's reliant on a global financial system that can make it worthless overnight.  *If it had intrinsic value, that would not be possible.
*
In the gold thread I provided some charts that clearly showed several of your points were not soundly based, and time and time again you came back with responses that ignored what was presented.  You are doing the same here and it's not a good look.


----------



## kahuna1 (9 May 2020)

A *failed state* is a political body that has disintegrated to a point where basic conditions and responsibilities of a sovereign government no longer function properly (see also fragile *state* and *state* collapse).


And

*Rougue State* a nation or state regarded as breaking international law and posing a threat to the security of other nations.

Sadly we now have the USA claiming openly CV19 is actually not as bad as it is with near 80,000 deaths, emergency workers wearing garbage bags as PPE .... workers not paid unemployment and now sent back to work. Some states such as Florida processed a mere 5% of claims the first month and a mere 25% by the latest set of numbers.

Questionable reporting of deaths by several states ... Georgia Florida and Texas as one might expect.

On and on it goes.

Fake cures ..... ones that dont work ... other political favorites give massive funding such as the one that has never made a drug or vaccine got 473 million.

USA actively stoking global tensions ... war almost .... de funding and actively acting to destroy global bodies which 200 member nations support and one, USA is trying to destroy, deliberately.

Bailout in the USA went so far 87% to the big business side and already a tax cut for property developers buried in the bills and the Federal goverment insisting on another ... before any aid to the peasants will be allowed.

Strange world and one the experts at Fox News and Sky News I am sure will sort out. USA unemployment numbers shocking and ... well. ... missing over half because they either did not qualify for help or ... if you noticed the participation rate slumped and removed another 5% of people via its massive fall. 

I am sure ... this state of affairs will continue with, things not good one the ground and getting worse as time goes on despite the back to work and it being ignored in favor of narratives that suit political agendas.


----------



## rederob (9 May 2020)

rederob said:


> Your repeated point about physical money in circulation is patently false. Yes the chart is 2 years old because it's the latest available from the Federal Reserve. Nevertheless, it is crystal clear from the charted information - yours and mine - that M1 is about twice as much as printed paper in circulation. My chart even describes the value of the circulated note, so it is not an "accounting" item, unlike a number of those referenced under M1.



This might help regarding the "component" nature of M1:


----------



## ducati916 (9 May 2020)

rederob said:


> 1. Russia, Pakistan and Argentina are examples of nations carrying on as normal after defaulting on their debts.  Many more have in recent decades.
> Yes, their financial systems are impaired to the extent that there is an overhang, but the average person on the street is generally oblivious
> 
> 2. Your repeated point about physical money in circulation is patently false.  Yes the chart is 2 years old because it's the latest available from the Federal Reserve.  Nevertheless, it is crystal clear from the charted information - yours and mine - that M1 is about twice as much as printed paper in circulation.  My chart even describes the value of the circulated note, so it is not an "accounting" item, unlike a number of those referenced under M1.
> ...




1. At the point leading up to default and a period (immediately) after default, life would have been far from normal. Simply look at Venezuela as a current example.

2. Which is why I qualified it with Table H.4.1.

3. Which was exactly my point.

4. Well go back to the Gold thread and try again. 

In any case, you have missed entirely the issue that was being argued:




Mr Kahuna's position was that the US 'was not printing money'. Clearly the US are. The entire M1 question was to demonstrate that there is a 'cash in your pocket' expansion underway at a phenomenal rate, never mind the more esoteric credit expansion in the financial system.

The US is printing hand over fist. It's currency is far from exploding currently (unless you mean higher).




There seems to be confusion between:

(a) Monetary policy expansion; and
(b) Fiscal policy expansion.




jog on
duc


----------



## rederob (9 May 2020)

ducati916 said:


> 1. At the point leading up to default and a period (immediately) after default, life would have been far from normal.



For most  Venezualans there was no real difference before and after.  Their national debt crisis was a long time coming.


ducati916 said:


> In any case, you have missed entirely the issue that was being argued:



On the contrary.
The USA *cannot *just print paper money from thin air and assume it retains the purchasing power to cover foreign debt.  If that were true, every government would do it and none would have to worry about debt!
@kahuna1 did not write it as I would but his sense is retained.


----------



## jbocker (9 May 2020)

macca said:


> the body does cure itself in most cases (fortunately) but tests are showing that quite a high percentage of those that have recovered do not have many antibodies in their system.
> 
> This increases the possibility of them catching it again, it also means that a vaccine (if we ever find one) may not work very well.
> 
> ...




I wonder why the young have been so unaffected by Covid-19.
With the older it seems that the best solution lies in the prevention (as is most often the case). If we learnt anything from all this, to combat colds and flu's, it is to keep washing our hands, stay home if you are crook (and STOP the snide and belittling of those who do), manage and isolate (as best we can) those who are sick. AND we no longer say "_its just a cold_".
If we can manage out Covid-19 with these practices then imagine what we could do with the old common cold and flu.


----------



## ducati916 (9 May 2020)

rederob said:


> 1. For most  Venezualans there was no real difference before and after.  Their national debt crisis was a long time coming.
> 
> 
> 
> ...




1. Would you wish to live in Venezuela? I know I wouldn't, simply because life there is miserable. It is miserable because their currency has/is collapsing. 

2. Well we are not talking about foreign debt. We are talking about US dollar denominated debt.

3.  All governments that can...do.

4. Mr Kahuna: clearly believes that 'money cannot be created out of thin air'.




He is incorrect.

jog on
duc


----------



## rederob (9 May 2020)

ducati916 said:


> 1. Would you wish to live in Venezuela? I know I wouldn't, simply because life there is miserable. It is miserable because their currency has/is collapsing.
> 
> 2. Well we are not talking about foreign debt. We are talking about US dollar denominated debt.
> 
> ...



I don't indulge in strawman argument so won't be responding further to your points.


----------



## wayneL (9 May 2020)

Venezuela is a straw man argument?

Hilarious!


----------



## rederob (9 May 2020)

wayneL said:


> Venezuela is a straw man argument?
> 
> Hilarious!



The reason I ignore most of your posts is because you do not understand what an argument comprises.  
Of all the people on this site that I have read posts from over almost 15 years, yours more regularly attack the person than the topic.  
Despite this, you have kept casting the shoe on the other foot, and have never yet shown evidence for your assertions.
As Joe is at pains to point out, there is an ignore button that works a treat.


----------



## wayneL (9 May 2020)

rederob said:


> The reason I ignore most of your posts is because you do not understand what an argument comprises.
> Of all the people on this site that I have read posts from over almost 15 years, yours more regularly attack the person than the topic.
> Despite this, you have kept casting the shoe on the other foot, and have never yet shown evidence for your assertions.
> As Joe is at pains to point out, there is an ignore button that works a treat.



I have commented on your argument, not your person Robbie.

I played the ball, not the man, therefore not ad hominem.

IOW, I argue your argument for a logical fallacy is a logical fallacy.

On the other hand, there are dozens of examples of you playing the man, including the quoted post.


----------



## SirRumpole (9 May 2020)

jbocker said:


> If we can manage out Covid-19 with these practices then imagine what we could do with the old common cold and flu.




Tell the employers not to sack the workers who take a week off with a cold.


----------



## jbocker (9 May 2020)

SirRumpole said:


> Tell the employers not to sack the workers who take a week off with a cold.



EXACTLY. It has to be managed far better to protect the workers AND the bosses. Cold gets a mandatory 3 days off. Doctors certificate to be picked up day 1, allow work from home after two days rest (if that is possible. If you are caught out scamming - sacked. The message is Stay at home, We don't want sick at work and NOT in the public space also. Scammers can cop it sweet, give the job to someone else. Fine the boss who doesn't send the sick home.


----------



## Humid (9 May 2020)

Isolation must increase hallucinations

Employers are to busy figuring out how to underpay their employees let alone paying sickies


----------



## Bill M (9 May 2020)

jbocker said:


> EXACTLY. It has to be managed far better to protect the workers AND the bosses. Cold gets a mandatory 3 days off. Doctors certificate to be picked up day 1, allow work from home after two days rest (if that is possible. If you are caught out scamming - sacked. The message is Stay at home, We don't want sick at work and NOT in the public space also. Scammers can cop it sweet, give the job to someone else. Fine the boss who doesn't send the sick home.






Humid said:


> Isolation must increase hallucinations
> 
> Employers are to busy figuring out how to underpay their employees let alone paying sickies




It is unfortunate but true. In all my working life the bosses were always trying to rip off the workers and break the law. I had to stand up to them a few times and in the end they backed off. So sad it's still going on today. I thought things might have improved but it seems to be getting worse.


----------



## kahuna1 (9 May 2020)

America .... only 51% of workers earning wages in the lowest quarter ($13.80 or less)Get ANY sick leave . Among the lowest-earning tenth – those whose wages are $10.80 an hour or less – just 31% have paid sick leave.

https://www.pewresearch.org/fact-ta...-workers-have-paid-sick-leave-and-which-dont/

According to the latest data available from the Bureau of Labor Statistics, 69% of low-wage workers, those in the 10th lowest percentile of median wage earners in the US civilian workforce, do not receive paid sick leave benefits.

“Their earnings are low so they can’t afford to take unpaid leave and when they are sick they have to keep working and expose other people in the process,” said Harry Holzer, a professor of public policy at Georgetown University.


 I would also point out  ...

most workers in the USA when they start only get one week paid leave .... no sick leave and for lower paid jobs like say Walmart after 7 years .... they give you your second week ... you get sick, your using a vacation day. Just great for CV19 !!

You get a cold ...and your vacation is cut short or disappears for the year.

Same for McDonalds and a very long list of American employers.

A sickie ... is not possible with ... no paid sick days.
Time to get back to work slaves for ... awful pay and worse benifits.

The American dream !!

Work or starve ? Work and get sick and die ? OR get sick and then smashed with a hospital bill for 35k ?

Time to choose ... .jeopardy music is playing .... all for $11.22 an hour for Walmart. Minus tax and Social security so ... $9- in your hand. Whoops, my hand,  it just fell off .... music stopped.


----------



## hja (9 May 2020)

Big deal. You can find worse conditions in many places around the world.
Take America's best bud China...
In China, the average worker earns around 10x less than the average American and also have to slog on when sick. I've personally witnessed many of the different types of factories there and their treatment of their peons. The show is supposed to be informative and candid but it's nothing special when you see a sleep deprived slave fall asleep at the silk yarning machine, for example. Can you blame them if they've been in the factory for more than 12 hours a day, every day of the week?

The real hustle comes when they shuffle you away into the bosses' offices to convince you why you need to buy their silk outfits or other trinkets depending on the factory.

I'd rather be a worker in a Walmart or McDonalds anyday... not that the Beijing Maccas are much different to those in other places.

(In before CCP... I mean redflag rob.)


----------



## kahuna1 (9 May 2020)

I prefer neither regime .... CCP or USA.

USA however ... is civilized supposedly. Great ..... as in the G in MAGA.

Not sure say an Amazon worker who for healthcare pays the first $3,000- as a deductible and then co pays so half the next 1,500 and then $40- a week for that cover which is shared with the employer compares to Chinese medical costs, nor rent ... likely more than the Chinese worker is paid. 

Paying $6,500 Medical when your on under 28k after tax .... is leaving you in  the USA needing food stamps ... oh ... they just cut them as well ... rents an insane price ... leaves well ... so glad they have no holidays since they cant afford them. 

Neither are well, pleasant conditions.

Did you know you get 90 seconds to go to the toilet for a number 2 at Amazon ? .... one worker complained because he got a hernia trying to push it out so quickly. During CV19 any protestors were just sacked. No discussion, just sacked.

Meat workers in the USA ... well they have it even worse.

Comparing conditions to Australia or NZ or EU ... verses USA leaves a lot to be desired.
As to China, well ... there in lies one reason why manufacturing was outsourced. Lower wages.

One hand China raised average living conditions, doubled life expectancy and whilst a regime that I fancy less than USA, I would prefer NOT to work or live in either nation as a Macca's worker or factory worker.

We for cheaper labor got cheaper goods, companies made more profits and well, USA just decided to imitate 3rd world conditions or ones that were around 200 years ago.

Post CV19 these supply chains may change a bit, but not holding my breath for the simple reason that in may ways the relationship has been symbiotic and beneficial to both nations, all be it USA did not bother improving the conditions of the many or raising wages and benifits correctly, it just went to the few. Chain verses where it was 40 years ago is amazing. But it comes at a cost of course.

Nothing is perfect. Far from it. This however is obscene where we are now. USA has abandoned any role for its people in CV19 and abandoned the rest of the world fighting it ... it stands alone. Fine  ... well bloody pay tax here ... is my biggest gripe and ... well stop being so pious about your moral stance when by end of 2020 you have likely 250,000 CV19 dead instead of 20% of that.

Its only 200,000 more Americans than should have died. About 2 years of the deaths in Yemen or 3 years of Drone attacks .... or 2 years of the fighting in Syria and Libya.

Not sure one can have the high ground when your up to your neck in innocent bodies on the main.


----------



## Sdajii (9 May 2020)

SirRumpole said:


> *
> 
> *
> * Australia *
> ...




Everyone is talking about a lasting immune response including immunological memory. Recoveries are not relevant to this.


----------



## Sdajii (9 May 2020)

kahuna1 said:


> Seek help ...  it is confronting the journey you are upon.




You know nothing about me. Your arrogance, smug attitude, passive aggression and rudeness are disgusting. You frequently display paranoia, insanity and emotional instability and multiple times I've seen you recommend others to get help which they clearly don't need. Telling someone else to get help they don't need is just another display of your passive aggression, and likely psychological projection.


----------



## Dona Ferentes (9 May 2020)

Humid said:


> Before text messaging?



pigeons


----------



## kahuna1 (9 May 2020)

Sdajii said:


> You know nothing about me. Your arrogance, smug attitude, passive aggression and rudeness are disgusting. You frequently display paranoia, insanity and emotional instability and multiple times I've seen you recommend others to get help which they clearly don't need. Telling someone else to get help they don't need is just another display of your passive aggression, and likely psychological projection




Peace.
xxx


----------



## kahuna1 (9 May 2020)

Sdajii said:


> This pandemic hit me at the absolute worst possible time and has resulted in me being in exactly that position. I don't even have $5k to my name, I don't own a bed, I don't even have a full wardrobe of clothes, I lost everything from my toothpaste and washing powder to my computer, books... everything.




As I said peace.
If this upsets you, I am sorry. I expressed sympathy, and well ... 

Good luck on your journey


----------



## macca (9 May 2020)

jbocker said:


> I wonder why the young have been so unaffected by Covid-19.
> With the older it seems that the best solution lies in the prevention (as is most often the case). If we learnt anything from all this, to combat colds and flu's, it is to keep washing our hands, stay home if you are crook (and STOP the snide and belittling of those who do), manage and isolate (as best we can) those who are sick. AND we no longer say "_its just a cold_".
> If we can manage out Covid-19 with these practices then imagine what we could do with the old common cold and flu.




_We are in the wrong thread for this but briefly, the old spend a lot of time indoors, the Young are far more active and usually outdoors in the sunshine doing it

USA research is showing fit, active people with no chronic conditions quite often do not even know they have had the virus_


----------



## Sdajii (9 May 2020)

kahuna1 said:


> As I said peace.
> If this upsets you, I am sorry. I expressed sympathy, and well ...
> 
> Good luck on your journey




It was blatant passive aggression, not sympathy. That was plain for all those who aren't just scrolling past your posts as most do. If you think you're fooling people on that one, you're fooling yourself.


----------



## grimsby (10 May 2020)

Sdajii said:


> It was blatant passive aggression, not sympathy. That was plain for all those who aren't just scrolling past your posts as most do. If you think you're fooling people on that one, you're fooling yourself.




Take a seat Sdajii, there are many who are really interested in reading what Mark contributes to this site.

Regarding contributions, I bring nothing to this site, I come near to listen to people like Mark who have helped me to see things differently. But, what are you contributing besides some hurt feelings?


----------



## kahuna1 (10 May 2020)

Sadly we are there ...

Another milestone. Its Saturday there so not quite mothers day.




80,000 Americans reported dead ...



 I say reported ..

As likely your aware some states are just not reporting deaths. Georgia leads the pack with almost identical infections and a very poor medical system compared to Connecticut ... woeful ... its  reporting at HALF the rate ... and 2 ? Seriously ? All week I have watched this and well their numbers, Texas and Florida who admits its NOT recording CV19 deaths instead if their heart explodes via CV19 putting stress on it, its  a heart attack.

CV19 was always sadly going to kill people. Governments and what their role is for the common good is to take care of many, not the few, or to give massive tax cuts to property developers during a pandemic as the USA did.

Canada not a great response, sadly, but ... its 10% the size of USA and its numbers if adjusted by a factor of 10 are HALF the USA. So, for me, a benchmark being fair ...




You will note USA is adding cases at DOUBLE the rate of Canada even now.
USA has tested per capita half the rate of the next two nations .... and likely exceeds Spain's grim toll on a per capita basis. Ignore Canada testing levels as they half half the rate of infection of USA yet ... have tested the same per capita.

Yet its back to work. Slaves. Infected or not !! Far out ....

*USA in April ...2020 *

Stocks rose the most in 33 years.

USA had 58,000 'Reported" CV19 deaths in April and the same as the Vietnam war.

Reported the largest rise in unemployment ever, for a month.

Saw the largest ever fall in the participation rate ever .. a trick USA use to mask the actual unemployment rate .. if it was the same as last month headline unemployment would have been 5% higher .. lower the participation rate ... means you dont have to raise the reported unemployment rate.

Rejected or had not processed over 10 million unemployment claims

Reported 14.7% unemployed but with rejected and unable to claim added back in the rate was 27.3% 'worse than the depression !!

Stocks rose 1.9% on the day  when this joyful news was released.

President Trump claimed it was expected and not his fault, yes the number was so cooked to 14.7% and fully expected ..... derr ... the department that produces it is run by another stupid billionaire

During April Trump congratulated himself 147 times on how good a job he was doing with CV19 including an appearance by a Zombie called Jarrod at 60,000 deaths who did the same. Sadly they are now 80,000

Trump claimed he was being treated unfairly by the press on a daily basis and then attacked especially female reported of color and abused them time and again.

Of course, I am aware people without a critical thought in their head accept all of the preaching of Trump. Some are my friends and its impossible and futile to change their perception. I personally dont try, its futile. Some believe like VP Mike Pence the world was created in 7 days. So too the lispy Surgeon General and Dr Birx and many others on the CV19 task force.

On any metric, USA has performed awfully.

The Virus is now a political tool. No we will not report deaths, claim we are testing when, well they are not. Expecting factual economic numbers to be reported, when ... its a game ?

I have been following economic numbers for a long time now, 1982 ...  as a trainee dealer ... and well these Virus numbers are not economic, rather factual accounts of those who lost their lives.

My own estimates of end of June 2020 and End of Dec 2020 are under threat. Even with rubber numbers fro  some states.Reason being the new infections are NOT falling and alarming. So the 128k total likely in trouble. The 250 k by end of 2020 .... due to gross stupidity is an I wish number.

Please expect for USA mothers day .... as they are behind Australia in well , every way .... their Sunday numbers are always very low but for mothers day USA totals will be even lower suspect.

Sigh ... I wish it was not so. To watch a failed state in action. Rogue state to the rest of the world worries me as Trump has all his soldiers and generals at Camp David this weekend so does that mean a war to distract us ? Or just more hot air ? I wonder if the lispy Surgeoun General who holds the rank of Vice Admiral despite appearing never to have served will be there ?  

Happy mothers day to all !!


----------



## Smurf1976 (10 May 2020)

jbocker said:


> Cold gets a mandatory 3 days off. Doctors certificate to be picked up day 1



Trouble is, if the doctors certificate needs to be on the first day off then that brings in the scenario that someone feels crook on Tuesday, calls their doctor and takes the first available appointment on Friday. Meanwhile they're still at work.

I think the whole approach to workplaces and illness needs to be overhauled really. If someone's genuinely sick then they're sick and if it's contagious shouldn't be at work. If someone's abusing it well then management's hands should be less tied in getting rid of them so long as there's clear evidence. In saying that I acknowledge that there's a portion of individuals on both sides who will abuse anything they have a chance to abuse so no easy answer.


----------



## kahuna1 (10 May 2020)

H mmm ...

To put into perspective USA propaganda ...

this is apt.

NZ is ranked 35th ... Australia 4th ... NZ ...  behind Brazil number 22 ... Indonesia number 30 ...

UK ... well as much a joke as USA ...
Suspect USA should be ranked below 150 th place near Chad or Zambia.




This data came from this report ...
https://www.ghsindex.org/

Johns Hopkins Center for Health Security (JHU)

A Bloomberg funded pro USA forever place much like the other pet things his ilk support. His favorite charity is of course his old University ,,,,  Buffet is abortions for non whites ... Same for Gates.

This Rogue State contempt for all others, pollutes World Bank ... IMF and OECD reports along with credit rating agencies and sadly most other global organizations the USA has not either stopped being a member such as Climate issues or War crimes or Food Aid or United Nations and so on.

Thought this was a decent example of, well, the contempt and disdain white American billionaires and rulers have for any and all.

Trump just congratulated himself on his CV19 efforts 47 times on twitter in a 72 hour period.


----------



## kahuna1 (10 May 2020)

On the above ...

Bloomberg and his, well .... efforts one eyed ...
I dig deeper and no surprise Buffet with Gates Foundation ... and none other than the World Bank the USA controlled and as bad as the IMF ... where USA controls all who are elected via having 16% of the vote and any and all need 85% voting to get senior appointments and with the World Bank the president of the USA must agree to its president. I believe Trumps wife Ivanka almost got the job.

I note Gates has been promoting himself ... more than usual during this pandemic.. and billionaire class of late. Sadly, the best PR money can buy. 

Anyhow some members .... of this, well ... index are

https://www.ghsindex.org/about/


*GHS Index Co-Leaders*

*Jennifer B. Nuzzo, DrPH, SM*, _Associate Professor, Johns Hopkins Bloomberg School of Public Health; Senior Scholar, Johns Hopkins Center for Health Security_

*David Blazes, *_Senior Program Officer, Surveillance and Epidemiology, Global Health Program, _Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation
*Mukesh Chawla, *_Adviser, Health, Nutrition and Population, _World Bank_; Chair, _UNAIDS and World Bank Global Economics Reference Group on HIV-AIDS
*Scott F. Dowell, *_Deputy Director, _Vaccine Development and Surveillance, Global Health Program, Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation


----------



## wayneL (10 May 2020)

I'm just glad that I am more focused on my own affairs than some other foreign country which just happens to be our greatest ally.


----------



## kahuna1 (10 May 2020)

wayneL said:


> some other foreign country which just happens to be our greatest ally.




New Zealand is our greatest and closest ally, by far. Followed by PNG I suspect, a debt we cant repay.

Sorry I didn't mention PNG.

Can we vote for Jacinta next election instead of Mr Potato head ?


----------



## Humid (10 May 2020)

wayneL said:


> I'm just glad that I am more focused on my own affairs than some other foreign country which just happens to be our greatest ally.



 Read the thread title it explains a lot


----------



## rederob (10 May 2020)

kahuna1 said:


> H mmm ...
> 
> To put into perspective USA propaganda ...
> 
> ...



I went through the index metrics.
How the USA came out as number 1 beats me.
Actually, it's a total fabrication, as the USA comes out ahead of Australia on "*health*" by ten percentage points - really!!!
Whoever was paid to score the USA must be laughing all the way to the bank.
Nice find @kahuna1.


----------



## wayneL (10 May 2020)

kahuna1 said:


> New Zealand is our greatest and closest ally, by far. Followed by PNG I suspect, a debt we cant repay.
> 
> Sorry I didn't mention PNG.
> 
> Can we vote for Jacinta next election instead of Mr Potato head ?



Jacinta? Just, no.

NZ are our bros for sure, but despite, like us, punching well above their weight, probably not much use against any real foes. Just a numbers thing


----------



## kahuna1 (11 May 2020)

wayneL said:


> probably not much use against any real foes




No our mates Kiwis never heard of ... Gallipoli ... Somme ... Tobruk ... just to name a few.

No defeating Hitlers for the first time on land ... was not against a real foe ... Rommel ... according to you. Not sure if they were there at Kokoda  ... when the Japanese were defeated first time on land ... but I am sure many Kiwi's were fighting under our flag since we are joined at the hip.

ANZAC stands for some words ... hint the NZ in it.

No we should bow down before the USA .... both of our nations.


----------



## rederob (11 May 2020)

The USA are masters of double standards.
They also want a myriad of international investigations at their whim but, for example, see how well they go at war crimes when they are in the crosshairs.
Now let's look at their abysmal performance in supporting international treaties  - either not signed, not ratified, or signed but later withdrawn:

1930 - Forced Labour Convention, not ratified
1948 - Freedom of Association and Protection of the Right to Organise Convention, not signed
1949 - Right to Organise and Collective Bargaining Convention, 1949, not signed
1950 - Convention for the Suppression of the Traffic in Persons and of the Exploitation of the Prostitution of Others, not signed
1951 - Convention relating to the Status of Refugees, party to only the 1967 protocol
1951 - Equal Remuneration Convention, not ratified
1954 - Convention relating to the Status of Stateless Persons, not signed
1958 - Discrimination (Employment and Occupation) Convention, not ratified
1960 - Convention against Discrimination in Education, not ratified
1961 - Convention on the Reduction of Statelessness, not signed
1962 - Convention on Consent to Marriage, Minimum Age for Marriage and Registration of Marriages, signed but not ratified
1964 - Employment Policy Convention, 1964, not ratified
1966 - International Covenant on Economic, Social and Cultural Rights, signed but not ratified
1966 - First Optional Protocol to the International Covenant on Civil and Political Rights, not signed
1969 - Convention on the Non-Applicability of Statutory Limitations to War Crimes and Crimes Against Humanity, not ratified
1969 - Vienna Convention on the Law of Treaties, signed but not ratified
1972 - Anti-Ballistic Missile Treaty, signed but withdrew in 2002
1973 - International Labor Organization Minimum Age Convention, 1973, not ratified
1977 - American Convention on Human Rights, signed but not ratified
1977 - Protocol I (an amendment protocol to the Geneva Conventions), not ratified
1977 - Protocol II (an amendment protocol to the Geneva Conventions), not ratified
1979 - Convention on the Elimination of All Forms of Discrimination against Women, signed but not ratified
1979 - Moon Treaty
1981 - Occupational Safety and Health Convention, 1981, not ratified
1989 - Second Optional Protocol to the International Covenant on Civil and Political Rights, not signed
1989 - Convention on the Rights of the Child, signed but not ratified
1989 - Basel Convention, signed but not ratified
1990 - United Nations Convention on the Protection of the Rights of All Migrant Workers and Members of Their Families, not signed
1991 - United Nations Convention on the Law of the Sea, not signed
1992 - Convention on Biological Diversity, signed but not ratified
1994 - Convention on the Safety of United Nations and Associated Personnel, signed but not ratified
1996 - Comprehensive Test Ban Treaty, signed but not ratified
1997 - Kyoto Protocol, signed with no intention to ratify
1997 - Ottawa Treaty (Mine Ban Treaty), unsigned
1998 - Rome Statute of the International Criminal Court, unsigned [2]
1999 - Optional Protocol to the Convention on the Elimination of All Forms of Discrimination against Women, not signed
1999 - Criminal Law Convention on Corruption, signed but not ratified
1999 - Civil Law Convention on Corruption, not signed
2002 - Optional Protocol to the Convention against Torture, not signed
2006 - International Convention for the Protection of All Persons from Enforced Disappearance, not signed
2007 - Convention on the Rights of Persons with Disabilities, signed but not ratified
2008 - Convention on Cluster Munitions, not signed
2011 - Anti-Counterfeiting Trade Agreement, signed but not ratified
2013 - Arms Trade Treaty, signed but not ratified
2016 - Trans-Pacific Partnership, signed but not ratified
2017 - Paris Agreement, signed but not ratified


----------



## wayneL (11 May 2020)

kahuna1 said:


> No our mates Kiwis never heard of ... Gallipoli ... Somme ... Tobruk ... just to name a few.
> 
> No defeating Hitlers for the first time on land ... was not against a real foe ... Rommel ... according to you. Not sure if they were there at Kokoda  ... when the Japanese were defeated first time on land ... but I am sure many Kiwi's were fighting under our flag since we are joined at the hip.
> 
> ...



Like I said, bro... Kiwis have always punched above their weight, like Aussies.

But we're lightweights.


----------



## Sdajii (11 May 2020)

grimsby said:


> Take a seat Sdajii, there are many who are really interested in reading what Mark contributes to this site.
> 
> Regarding contributions, I bring nothing to this site, I come near to listen to people like Mark who have helped me to see things differently. But, what are you contributing besides some hurt feelings?




If he wasn't expressing obvious passive aggression I wouldn't be calling it out. Telling someone to seek psychiatric help is an obvious case of passive aggression, just as it would be if I indirectly accused you of having a disorder you didn't have. It's peculiar to say you enjoy reading his posts when his posts involve such things. Presumably his passive aggression is not what you are interested in reading, so it would make sense that you would agree that he should not post such things and stick to whatever it is of his that you do take interest in.


----------



## rederob (11 May 2020)

Sdajii said:


> If he wasn't expressing obvious passive aggression I wouldn't be calling it out. Telling someone to seek psychiatric help is an obvious case of passive aggression, just as it would be if I indirectly accused you of having a disorder you didn't have. It's peculiar to say you enjoy reading his posts when his posts involve such things. Presumably his passive aggression is not what you are interested in reading, so it would make sense that you would agree that he should not post such things and stick to whatever it is of his that you do take interest in.



You seem to be suffering a form of compulsive victim disorder.
Would you like to try, at least, to add something to the topic at hand?
How about about the USA now fudging their COV19 figures?


----------



## moXJO (12 May 2020)

US is both the worst and the best place depending on where you go. Can get shocking racism, or meet some of the friendliest people on earth. Endless homeless and super cheap houses.

The guys that specialize there in their fields are second to none. If I need to go learn from the best it's generally US or Japan. A lot are extremely passionate about becoming the best at what they do. All of them seem to have an interesting story.

I enjoyed the US. Saw some amazing things. They ain't going anywhere soon. And you better hope they don't. 

This thread seems like another whinge session about Trump. He's as good as gone in November imo. So cut the b.s. Never seen so many lies. Personally I'm sick of putting a counterpoint to some of these idiotic stories.


----------



## kahuna1 (12 May 2020)

Perspective is  a wonderful thing.

Noted, about comments.
Opinion is one thing, facts another.

Whilst I annoy people with strongly held beliefs, I could still be debating the gent about printing money and his quaint view on the topic when I already provided sufficient factual evidence on the topic. Putting it clearer, below is the USA fed cash issued and whilst its DOUBLE 2000 levels so too is the GDP in dollar terms. So of course ... there is more cash on issue than 2000 .... derr ... the GDP was 9 trillion verses 22 trillion. Cash on issue is just  over this .... close to 3 times verses 2.5 times ....




https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/CURRCIR

I am sure ... I could have gone round and round and round and round with the gent and his opinion.
Possibly still will occur. He still seems to think I am of the opinion were the USA just to print money the currency would not crash ... when I said the opposite.

There is of course MORE USA cash on issue than is accounted for the GDP rising from 9 trillion  to 22 trillion in dollar terms ... so if you wished to postulate ones theory,  still ...  one could. The over and  above increase is, well ... again easily taken care of.

What occurred post 2000 ? Well the USA took upon itself to invade 7 or so nations and their currency became mere confetti and USD and dollars took over as the main and preferred medium of exchange accounting for about 300 billion or so more USD in currency to be in circulation in those regions such as Iraq, Afghanistan, Libya and Syria.

Either way, 300 billion verses a 22 trillion economy excess dollars issued is, well ...  under 1.5% over 20 years so,to me, immaterial. I am not going to debate it ... as that would be silly.

Other things pointed out about me, and whatever .... seriously ? Really ? Truly ?

Okey dokey.

I note that this thread and its contents are NOT designed to annoy, or piss off people. Far right and people of strong opinions seem to have wet themselves and we have 2 other threads, one racists based and another just taking the mickey on the site already.


Expected. I looked at Trumps twitter feed for the first time in months yesterday and he was, well, even more foaming with white crusty bits at the side of his mouth. Reminds me of many on the internet in 2020. He quoted time and time again, the "Daily Caller" as gospel. A network that is owned and set up by Tucker Carlson of Fox news that is ultra far right and low, if not totally devoid of factual content.

To some, this is their world. Gospel.

*This virus has become totally political*.
In 5 minutes of Sky news the Australian version of Fox being on the other night, the CV19 is just like the flu. Hope the ugly woman is not hit by this flu.

As I am pains to point out, the virus, is a virus .... it has no political agenda other than to replicate.

Debating over the sun and its fate every day, whether it would rise and deny it is going to, is about as stupid.

Clearly some USA states, are NOT reporting deaths correctly. States with the lowest insurance cover like say Georgia reporting abetter outcomes than ones with the best medical systems and Health insurance cover.

Really ? An aside.

Remdesivir the magic drug, I found the results of the trial ... not the two failed ones but the one that now allows it for emergency use and astounding 70% adverse reactions and 30% plus extreme reactions which, well is ... killing you and 10% removed from the study ... the study itself NO control group, not blind tested, people running it had extreme conflicts of interest and the list goes on and on.

There are other drugs being tested that show far more promise, but with the board being Gilead run and an astounding number of people who are employees ... or consultants ... or get paid to speak no wonder this bleach is being tried.

The political agenda is to get USA back to work.

Of course that also is the end goal of this exercise. When its safe.
USA death numbers Sundays always halve and magically so. I note on Trumps twitter he re tweeted WHO guidance that you want under 10% of those tested coming back positive ? Then it was safe.

Boy ... oh boy.

USA right now has say 25% who actually believe its a mere flu and nothing to be worried about. In some ways I do see this, however, they are a danger to everyone and everything.

Refusing to distance, they become plague carriers and well this coupled with the political agenda verses a bloody virus ?

Good luck. I will be building a mansion made of sand below the high water tide mark and see how it fares when the tide come in.

Back with some perspective and its ... not about Trump.
Its not anti American as such, love the yanks ... just not the 1% types.

If I annoy you, upset you ... please ignore me, because with a healthy self respect, I will and do bite back when boundaries are abused. 

Just hit the ignore button. Annoyance will be gone.


----------



## kahuna1 (12 May 2020)

Hi,

I keep pointing out the obvious regarding remdesivir, Gileads Magic Drug ... which a secret report was released that claimed it worked to SOME extent, as Trump declared it was safe to go back to work.

NIH ... the body overseeing the study ... the trial run by Gilead ... patients selected by Gilead ... the  comments on Lancet via an employee of Gilead .... the doctor backing this doctor up, one that over the years has been an employee or paid consultant going back to 1999 and Tamiflu ... forgot to mention this when he was involved in the Chinese trial ... with 66% plus adverse effects and NO shown positive outcomes.

Anyhow the board ... Government one approving the drug even for emergency use ...

We have 8 with declared interests and PAID Gilead employees

https://www.covid19treatmentguidelines.nih.gov/panel-financial-disclosure/

Then NOT declared .... two co heads of the board ... is that another 9 ?

https://defyccc.com/covid-19-panel-gilead-ties/

Now the phase one trial ... it failed ... but still they went to stage 2 ... and the Chinese Trial got no positive results already shared that link.

This NEW data of one could call it that ...

Run by Gilead.
NO control group ....
No Placebo group ...
No blind test ... that being the people KNEW what they were getting.
Cherry picked patients.
Picked by Gilead employees ...

On and on one could go.

This political agenda of go back to work to save the economy ...  and bugger the human or peasants ... cost.

I have no idea, if this works, but .... the criteria and testing ... if one could call it that is absurd.

Of course contained in the emergency release of the Drug for use, if one reads the fine print, its horrific.

this was the Chinese trial ...  showing not much use.


Being fair ....

_The lack of a control arm in the study could make interpreting the results more challenging. _
https://www.thelancet.com/journals/lancet/article/PIIS0140-6736(20)31022-9/fulltext

Being honest, I dont think any nation would even think to allow this crap to be even used in emergency use.

A polite ... view on these magic results

https://theconversation.com/is-remd...coronavirus-dont-get-your-hopes-up-yet-137592

The Chinese trial ...
*a randomised, double-blind, placebo-controlled* ...

The USA one, well ... open label ... and every other protocol abandoned for this narrative about its safe to go back to work.


A decent article about this ... Magic cure ...

*all you had to do was read the trial’s exclusion criteria: patients were not even admitted into the trial if they were on a ventilator ...*
https://blogs.sciencemag.org/pipeline/archives/2020/04/17/whats-happening-with-remdesivir

As for Money Gilead spent on lobbying ? It went nuts of late !! A new record

https://www.npr.org/sections/health...ose-as-interest-in-covid-19-treatment-climbed

Nothing like USA in 2020.

Calling the USA arm of this drug study Scientific or critical ... is akin to using one of Trumps two new cures .... bleach or strong light which alters DNA and well . causes cancer !!

Sadly I was unable to find the article that methodically went through the faults of this USA study ... from no end date or group that just got altered as time went on ... to open label test, so the doctors even knew who got what ... to no control group ... to extreme and absurd conflicts of interest ...  having a Gilead doctor select YOU for the trial ...

Meaningless at best, dangerous as a given ...

One simply cannot get any idea of if or how effective it is via the methodology used. It was merely experimenting on humans and well .. so many had extreme adverse events ... that being death ... and 20% were removed I now read from the results and claims this, bleach substance works or improves anything, are scientifically impossible to say, due to lax, if not absurd methodology. The again it costs $100- to make and well selling price is meant to be $4,500 USD per course.

You think I kid ?

https://www.fiercepharma.com/market...-worth-4-460-per-course-says-pricing-watchdog


Seems fair when it costs $100- per course to make .... only 45 times markup when funding for development has been mainly GOVERNMENT paid for ... it was an Ebola drug.

Costs $100 per course to make around $9- a vial .... Bangladesh ... is selling it for ?

The company plans to price the drug, which is given via intravenous infusion, at between 5,000 and 6,000 takas per vial ($59-$71/per vial), Beximco’s Chief Operating

https://www.reuters.com/article/us-...ng-covid-19-drug-remdesivir-coo-idUSKBN22H1DD

10% the USA price .... hilarious ... 

Not sure the global patent is still valid as it was used, and failed for Ebola in 2003. This .... bleach substance. 

Back to work slaves.


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## moXJO (12 May 2020)

US has been a crumbling empire for decades.
Once manufacturing is gone and you have such a huge population, it's hard to fill the void. Tech and robotics is also the great disruptor.
Amazon, Google, Facebook some of the most evil companies on the planet.

Every president has so far sucked. Obama was one of the worst in history. The reason US fell so far behind was because of his leadership. China basically sprung out of its box. Putin gained a huge foothold. And all levels of public service were weaponized. He was also a blood thirsty bastard, same as the others.

Trump may be a clown but he got it right on direction.
Stop the US bleeding money in bad trade deals.
Stop endless immigration.
Attempt at least to bring back manufacturing.
Call out the obvious problem countries.
Back off from the idiotic UN.
And the list goes on.
He is also doing a lot I don't like, but it's mostly outweighed by what's needed.
If he didn't come along the western  world would be in serious trouble as those looking to take advantage would have free reign.
And that's democrat or republican presidents. The only other one that may have been a disruptive force to the terrible line up is Sanders.
And I say that reluctantly as I'm not a fan of his politics.

Not to sure what's going on with you leftist lately. You are jumping on propaganda being pushed by multiple countries. Fact checking seems to have gone out the window. All in an attempt to take down a clown in Washington?
Accusing someone of lies, while pushing lies yourself doesn't make you any better.


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## moXJO (12 May 2020)

> Calling the USA arm of this drug study Scientific or critical ... is akin to using one of Trumps two new cures .... bleach or strong light which alters DNA and well . causes cancer !!




Are you saying the uv treatment causes cancer?

That's not exactly true.


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## kahuna1 (12 May 2020)

moXJO said:


> Are you saying the uv treatment causes cancer?
> 
> That's not exactly true.




UV light breaks the DNA bonds and is a leading cause of cancer. Then again, for some, science is not valid. Not about to debate Trumps light idea with a straight face.

Perspective ....

USA has lost total control over CV19 ...
Colorado which has a mid range for USA CV19 ... issue. Democrat governor ... about 5,000 cases every 10 days ... about 22% of Australia so ....  22,000 MORE cases every 10 days to compare to Australia ... or 3 times as many as we have in total ... that's every 10 days, that they identify. 

This restaurant as are many in the USA ... opening up ... social distancing out the window ... this one in a GOP dominant area ... lots of guns on show at a restaurant ?

Happy mothers day idiots !!



If you have a minority, even say 20% who dont care, dont believe in science and being encouraged from the top, to ignore it ... go back to work and accept the cost. Sadly, these morons more likely get infected, infect others, go visit grandma at the nursing home, infect her, infect all those around her and on and one this goes. Go to work, infect others and well ... stupidity should never be under estimated. 

Astounding is where USA is right now.

Trump just broke a new record. In 60 minutes he did 52 tweets, a mixture of bile, hate, conspiracy theories and racial slurs.

Bravo !!


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## moXJO (12 May 2020)

kahuna1 said:


> UV light breaks the DNA bonds and is a leading cause of cancer. Then again, for some, science is not valid. Not about to debate Trumps light idea with a straight face.
> 
> Perspective ....
> 
> ...




UVB phototherapy was shown to be safe. There were a few studies showing it was safe and the risk minimal. At least for psoriasis.


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## moXJO (12 May 2020)

Sweden is doing the same thing. Probably without the idiotic "rah rah" but still. Herd immunity. 
Realistically are we really going to get a vaccine for coronavirus?


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## moXJO (12 May 2020)

Kahuna, you are one of if not the most informative members here.
Which is another reason to be thankful to trump. You post more. 

There's some gems in some of your posts. Always gets me thinking.


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## Knobby22 (12 May 2020)

moXJO said:


> Sweden is doing the same thing. Probably without the idiotic "rah rah" but still. Herd immunity.
> Realistically are we really going to get a vaccine for coronavirus?




The USA is obviously now going for herd immunity, if that is possible.

I agree, a vaccine may not work, they desperately need a treatment though, which may come soon.

It will be difficult otherwise. Probably 1 in 150 dying.

The post following shows the depth of the problem and as you are aware so far only about 1/6th of the population in New York has caught it. Also you don't often get counted in the stats if you are poor, in nursing homes or an illegal citizen.
https://www.thestreet.com/mishtalk/economics/over-1-out-of-every-1000-people-in-ny-and-nj-die-from-covid-19

Also if you look at Florida the Governor has rigged the system so you are not in the stats if you die in a hospital but your heart fails, it is marked as a heart attack. If you want a hint of the total additional deaths you should look at the overall death statistics and note the rise above the normal death rate.


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## kahuna1 (12 May 2020)

Direct *DNA* damage can occur when *DNA* directly absorbs a UVB photon, or for numerous other reasons. UVB *light* causes thymine base pairs next to each other in genetic sequences to bond together into pyrimidine dimers, a disruption in the strand, which reproductive enzymes cannot copy. ... thymine dimers.

https://www.nature.com/scitable/blog/scibytes/how_ultraviolet_light_reacts_in/

Or this ..
https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0891584917300382

or this ...
https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC3010660/

Enuf ...

To be seriously unaware of skin cancer ? In 2020 .... remove the skin, and its protection and do your blood directly ?

Yep Trump is my new hero !!

Ultraviolet (UV) light kills cells by damaging their DNA.
https://www.scientificamerican.com/article/how-does-ultraviolet-ligh/

I think there may be 1,000 plus studies ... sceintific peer reviewed ones that show the effect not only on skin, but blood ... its even worse.

Far out.


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## aus_trader (12 May 2020)

ducati916 said:


> 1. Would you wish to live in Venezuela? I know I wouldn't, simply because life there is miserable. It is miserable because their currency has/is collapsing.



No I wouldn't. And I agree that it affects the everyday life when the country's currency is being devalued so much. These pictures don't need any further explanation:







I left the best for the last, especially for all the local toilet paper hoarders. Bring a truck load, if you were in Venezuela before hoarding stacks of toilet rolls


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## moXJO (12 May 2020)

kahuna1 said:


> Direct *DNA* damage can occur when *DNA* directly absorbs a UVB photon, or for numerous other reasons. UVB *light* causes thymine base pairs next to each other in genetic sequences to bond together into pyrimidine dimers, a disruption in the strand, which reproductive enzymes cannot copy. ... thymine dimers.
> 
> https://www.nature.com/scitable/blog/scibytes/how_ultraviolet_light_reacts_in/
> 
> ...



I'm  aware of skin cancer. I wasn't aware that the doctor was using literally shining the sun on you during treatment. 
There are safe levels you can use.

Are you sure you should be calling trump stupid after the above post.


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## kahuna1 (12 May 2020)

Bzzz ..... bzzz....

I hear a buzzing noise.

Venezuela ... as one who knows anything about oil .... not a pleasant place under the regime.
That USA now is the worlds largest oil producer, but at a cost, $60- a barrel for that shale oil and tar sands ... how does one keep the price of oil supported ?

Well ... lets invade Libya or get the NATO to do it ... nope that didn't work.

Lets tear up the Iran nuclear deal that was being supervised and all 30 plus nations thought it was OK but USA did not ... so take out another oil supplier.

Didn't work well enough, still too much supply.

Lets put embargo's on Venezuela at the behest of the Koch family. Lets also seize ... their money assets and well ... all else.

Iran and Venezuela if one includes non tradition oil such as tar sands for the latter are the two largest oil reserve nations on the planet.

Why are the Koch family involved ? Well they did have an asset there that they lost, via the regime making life hard, and Koch industries has a large refinery that is one of the very few that can process a heavy sour type of oil that it produces.

I am sure that buzzing noise missed all that ... background regarding their currency.
Like many nations, USD is the currency that evolves in these times. There was NO humanitarian crisis prior to the USA embargo's and basically strangling the nation by cutting off its main export.

I would lastly add, Bay of Pigs where the USA and CIA turned a blind eye to an stupid invasion of Cuba, well if you follow the news some idiot USA backed mercenary group got caught trying to topple the government there and one of the Ex Special Forces soldiers claimed he was doing so with Trumps approval and knowledge.

Unknown as to that.

USA is however enforcing a naval blockade around Venezuela right now so the chance of a boat full of soldiers getting close to shore is well ... zero.

Not going to bother with reading that buzzing noises latest theory as to why ... their currency is in the toilet.Of course it is.

 Opinions vary .... the embargo is real as are the USA actions ... USA froze their assets then is in the process of stealing them bit by bit and the nation, well ... is left ... destroyed.

USA has basically done this to most South American nations time and time again. Iran Contra deal ... was a classic and selling weapons to awful monsters actually got one of them jailed for war crimes, the USA well ... its role ... is another story. USA just stopped being a member of the international community and ignoring any and all actions by the body that prosecuted Nazi people and for 70 years since then.

USA is above war crimes and Trump actually pardoned several ones, who acted that badly the USA itself had jailed them.

Bzzzz.... my ignore button kind of works.


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## satanoperca (12 May 2020)

@kahuna1 if you would partake in a constructive exercise using your knowledge and wisdom, it would be beneficial to me and I am sure other contributors to this forum.

Given you have shown/present facts that are far from positive, I ask you this.

If the USA is doomed and China cannot be trusted, what are we humans to do with this planet earth, so all inhabitants can have the most rewarding lives?

If you had a magic wand, what would you change?

How would you create or initiate a fair currency/trading of goods?


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## kahuna1 (12 May 2020)

The USA is not doomed.

It merely needs to change to more represent the needs of the many, not the few.

China and USA and even Australia are not perfect. We here support the USA in Yemen and many other places that, well we should have said NO thanks.

Nothing is perfect, no goverment perfect. USA however has, strayed so far that its absurd not to call it a regime. A pandemic and the bailout goes to the top end ? Now the others are doing it tough and Trump says he wants a capital gains tax cut for the rich before he bails them out ? Only people with assets benefit as did the 90 billion tax cut for real estate assets in the first 2.2 trillion bailout.

Pandemic issues, with unlimited funds to support stocks ... of course the USA stocks look ok, for now.

Going back to work when USA testing is producing 5 times more positives than Germany or 100 times our own ?

Not a place that has any interests in the people.
I would prefer cretins like Gates to be paying tax at 35% not zero, much like Bezos and Buffet similar low 10% sort of levels.

Trade, China and so on. China is no saint. USA is not one either.

Both and all nations should and do act for their own interests. In the case of the USA its life expectancy has lost close to 10 years verses EU nations in 40 years, China has doubled its life expectancy.

Trade ... well ... it suited to basically outsource call centers , manufacturing and virtually everything they could. Good for business, profits and we ... adapt as well as we can.

Supply lines and ... some are very worrying right now. Pharmaceuticals China is a massive producer and if it were to say NO ... golly ... there would be some serious disruption.

Trade, is symbiotic as are societies and cities, Mutual defense and services and so on. USA has by recent actions shown in trade it is utterly unreliable and as such China responded with all computers and software must be Chinese made by 2024. Not many seem to be aware of this.

Reliance ... too much on any one source as an exporter or import ... is ... well in this environment not wise. So far under Trump he has threatened over 100 nations including Australia with actions. Tariffs embargoes and so on. That's 100 out of 200 nations.

China, well ... not a fan either. Since it just did a dirty on Australian Barley and then followed with meat, I would love the ability to tell both the USA and China to get nicked.

We cant. We rely to some extent on USA defense but I believe we should diversify that and leave the USA and its USA first policy to itself and form closer ties with others. EU and UK spring to mind.

China just sent via their party Newspaper today a clear reason why and its about Australia parroting the USA and anti China stuff along with, our actions whilst a pandemic is going on in the South China Sea which has Australian Navy ships with the USA, which annoys them.

Chinese actions and threats and USA threats of the past equally annoy me !!

China and our reliance upon them as an export destination and Chinese tourist and students are, like it or not a massive factor in our economy. No easy answer with this one. A fine line between following a madman ... as in Emperor Trump and not being influenced or dictated to by China.

We have our own interests and should tell both of them to bugger off !!

My motivation for this thread, was virus inspired.
It brings me great sadness that this virus has become a political tool.

Right now a green light is flashing for USA to go back to work. I suspect most if not all can see there is a massive disparity with where the USA is right now and how they have acted.

Of course opinions vary, but USA actions to date have been appalling. The  level of " Gaslighting" is extreme. Gaslighting where one deliberately messes with your perceptions until you have no idea what is up, or is down. All for a goal that, well ... is your own. USA is giving a total green light and all is safe, when, other nations are even at 10% of the positive rate of infections urging extreme caution.

Sadly, even the numbers, the media and all ... is mixed up in the mess and humans, mainly black and brown ones in the USA hit hardest of all.

There you go, I have no solution other than a request for all it matters that Australia grow a set of balls.

We further need to examine our relationship to BOTH China and USA and then act with Australian interests  paramount. Some shifting of production back to Australia and a little better warehousing of stuff. We however have done very well during this crisis.

I do fear, Trump ... and 2020. I did so prior to the virus and his racists tropes are becoming more erratic.

Sadly, possibly ... it will become an aside. China is clearly signalling its had enough if you read the Chinese party paper, their mouthpiece. One cannot deal with someone like Trump, nor I might add can we accept Chinese actions towards Australia. They no longer are threats.China has taken action, I suggest NO tit for tat, but, a very clear long term distancing from them .... over time. Until we dont rely so much on their trade or tourists.

Firm and extreme action is the only answer which may involve, painful changes short term for the longer term good. Something the USA ... does not even begin to comprehend the needs of the many.

It is not acceptable what China just did. It is also equally not acceptable what USA is doing in many nations right now and we are, well ... not giving a bugger. That they are about to execute 250,000 of their people, our allies ... needlessly is sadly evident.

All so Mr Trump can get the stock market higher ? That 250,000 number is a minimum end of 2020 number for USA and its likely higher. If it acted quicker, which it did not, if it tested .... or locked down for longer ... avoidable on the main.

No answers, just resigned disgust and a lot of sadness.
Our bestie NZ will act for its own interests, each nation will ... but when it does it. USA, using corpses ... of its own people and in vast numbers I draw the line of not saying your a monster.

USA is sadly a genocidal monster which is clear to most of the World right now.


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## satanoperca (12 May 2020)

@kahuna1 you are fired for not providing a simple, constructive response to the question.

No more reality TV for you.


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## kahuna1 (12 May 2020)

satanoperca said:


> If you had a magic wand, what would you change?




Done ....

Cant answer a complex answer in 3 words. As always I used more.
I have no wand ... and cannot change a thing.

I accept this. Please put me on ignore if I annoy you.

As I said ... DONE  and whilst not a wand, it works.


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## ducati916 (13 May 2020)

kahuna1 said:


> 1. Whilst I annoy people with strongly held beliefs, I could still be debating the gent about printing money and his quaint view on the topic when I already provided sufficient factual evidence on the topic.
> 
> 2. Putting it clearer, below is the USA fed cash issued and whilst its DOUBLE 2000 levels so too is the GDP in dollar terms. So of course ... there is more cash on issue than 2000 .... derr ... the GDP was 9 trillion verses 22 trillion. Cash on issue is just  over this .... close to 3 times verses 2.5 times ....
> 
> ...




So I was informed by a third party that this argument had been reignited. 

The thing is Mr Kahuna didn't 'reply' to one of my posts. Mr Kahuna didn't link my name in his post. Mr Kahuna didn't PM me and say, hey Mr Duc, I'm responding with further argument.

No. What Mr Kahuna did was wait a few days while the initial argument died and then tried to sneak in the argument. Well it would have worked because I don't generally follow this thread, but unfortunately for Mr Kahuna, someone alerted me to the thread.

So:


1. You have provided zero factual evidence. You have provided screeds of opinion unsubstantiated by any facts. If you disagree, return to your past postings and screenshot your factual evidence. I will then ensure that I respond to it. Please don't bother with the video. I watched it and responded to it with two time references, which went without any response from yourself. By all means respond to my two time references.

2. You make reference to cash in circulation post 2000 is almost x2. You also state that GDP is higher. What is actually your argument? In those sentences, there is actually no proposition at all. How can anybody respond to an argument when there is no argument expressed?

The argument that I think you are trying to put forward is this: (a) if the economy grows as measured by GDP, then you would expect cash in circulation to also grow. There are 2 answers to this proposition:

(a) GDP = C + G + I + NX. Where 'C' = consumption, 'G' = government spending. 'G' is the important one as far as this discussion goes: G is 'Fiscal Policy'. If tax revenues are below government spending (Fiscal Policy) then government needs to make up the shortfall through (i) debt. That debt can be monetised by the Federal Reserve. That accounts for the increase in cash in circulation. Which simply reinforces my argument and negates yours.

(b) This moves into economic theory and for the purposes of this thread is unnecessary.

3. Incorrect. I made your opinion very clear:




When a currency 'implodes' it collapses in upon itself. It becomes worthless. This meaning is reinforced one sentence later when you state"

_"...but to create money out of thin air would cause a currency collapse..."_

So now I think that you hid this post so that you could simply lie and misquote me. Tsk, tsk.

It is clear that the money supply can be expanded materially without any (or few) serious consequences to government. Which is why your position is incorrect.

4. See point [2] above.

5. What relevance does this have to the argument being put forward? Probably little to none. However I will wait to see if this is expanded upon.

6. I don't make personal comments. If I did, find it and you will have an apology.

7. Just ensure going forward that I am aware of your continuing participation by one of the available means made available. I have no issues whatsoever with regard to how you choose to respond.

jog on
duc


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## kahuna1 (13 May 2020)

Morning ... buzzing seems louder ...

My screen is broken and it seems stocks actually went down. Fauci it seems has been let off the leash.

Possibly for today I could have  a discussion with a wall .... foaming at the mouth in the corners and bleating about how they are right on something. Maybe Trump or his new press secretary who promised not to lie and then did so 12 seconds latter.

If a person does not understand when GDP of a nation rises from 9 trillion to 22 trillion, and the cash it has on issue rises accordingly ...  as one would expect, then comes back claiming to not understand, its besides the point even going further. Are you kidding ? Clearly cash on issue has NOT risen ... beyond growth in underlying GPD .... the opposite to what you postulate and your kooky theory is just that. Silly !!

Seems also I must remember to send flowers, or PM's .... or whatever ... it seems I have forgotten and it was only mothers day recently. I am not your friend, nor wish to be. I will never meet you and clearly your the type, one  that I find, painful at best. Were you  a lawyer ? A desire and demand to always be right ?   Clearly not a trader as is my background and an investor ...  such tightly held opinions make terrible traders and not much better investors.

Sigh. Have no interest in going round and round and round and round. Provided links, two professors and well ...  since your strongly held opinions are the opposite of three experts I provided, two of whom are professors, and your view is that no evidence was provided ??

Whatever .... 

Please start a thread on MMT and your pet theory.
I am sure I will contribute. 

Must run ... have to listen to what the man with the Orange Hair and white crusts at the corners of his mouth has said today. He seems to be making more sense today !!


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## Humid (13 May 2020)

aus_trader said:


> No I wouldn't. And I agree that it affects the everyday life when the country's currency is being devalued so much. These pictures don't need any further explanation:
> 
> View attachment 103405
> 
> ...



Trouble is the rich can use all 3 for sanitary needs


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## kahuna1 (13 May 2020)

*Three members of the White House coronavirus task force will self-quarantine after possibly being exposed to the coronavirus*_._

*Pence’s press secretary tested positive for coronavirus*


*Pence will not self-quarantine after his press secretary tested positive because he “has tested negative every single day.”*

Does gross stupidity make you immune ?

*The White House encouraged staffers to come into the office, including the aides who travel with Trump and Pence*_._

*The White House directed most officials – but not Trump – to wear masks at all times inside the building except when sitting at their desks*_._

Sadly many African Americans are being shot or arrested for wearing said masks.

*The Trump administration cut funding for coronavirus researcher, jeopardizing possible COVID-19 vaccine*_.
_
This was after a news blitz on Fox News which is running the USA right now.

*Trump spent Mother’s Day sending 126 tweets, retweets, and quote-tweets about the Russia investigations by the FBI and the House Intelligence Committee*_. *Falling just 16 short of the single-day posting record he set during his impeachment trial in January *_

As previously mentioned a record 52 tweets in 60 minutes all whining about anything other than pertinent facts. Only 79 million devoted twitter followers.

*The Trump administration is moving to expand immigration restrictions, believing that the public is willing to accept new limits on immigration during the pandemic*_._

Trump went into a rant about Chinese to a female reporter born in China and then stormed out of a press gathering whilst unable to answer the question. This was his response, ban all non white immigrants.  I am sure this will help cure the pandemic.

*The director of the federal agency responsible for developing a coronavirus vaccine was removed after pressing for rigorous vetting of chloroquine and hydroxychloroquine to treat the coronavirus*_,_

What he said about another cures or vaccines being touted by Trump is worse. A vaccine being developed by a company that never had a drug licensed let alone a vaccine. Another supposed cure that had a trial that was so pathetic it was a joke. No vetting for bleach type substances for the USA … your fired.

*Senate Republicans are preparing for a swift confirmation process if a vacancy on the Supreme Court opens up before the November election.*

Senate leader actually has put up a 37 year old family friend for al lifetime appointment to the courts. Trump and his cult have permanently altered USA justice system with ultra far right anti gay, anti abortion, drip down economic judges ensure Trump and his legacy will last decades.



I understand the following gent is their pick for the supreme court if an opening come up. He does use legal terminology so so … well.







This is just a taste of SOME of the things going on over the last 2 days prior to yesterday.

In any normal pre Trump era, most would make headlines for weeks if not months.

This is the USA new normal.

Overnight obviously this bubble is being pricked despite the extreme gas-lighting about the virus and its safe to go back to work and all will be well.

What occurred on the 12th May 2020, USA time … overnight needs its own post.

Obviously its NOT Sunday so reported deaths are double that fictional break in the week …. at this stage 1,500 plus and 20,000 plus new cases.

Sigh … need to highlight how … well pathetic this failed state response is and mind boggling overnight events. NO not Dr Fauci who is self quarantining whilst VP Pence goes to work. He already sidelined, I suspect has given up being politically correct because he knows, as awful as USA reported total deaths at over 80k likely 100 k or more, will TRIPLE at best by end of 2020. 

That's 250k at best by year end and possibly 500k given the Trump regime message. Dr Fauci I have been critical of due to his clear understanding of the threat since early January 2020, seems possibly to have gone, bugger it. I am 79 and I have had enough dealing with imbeciles ?  If he gets fired, he gets fired. I think potentially not hitting 250k deaths given the Trump message is now passed. Fauci seems to also clearly think this.  

Humans do matter. In the end. A failed state is one that's failed for its people and overnight, some astounding and even more alarming things occurred.


----------



## ducati916 (13 May 2020)

kahuna1 said:


> 1. Morning ... buzzing seems louder ...
> 1(a).Possibly for today I could have  a discussion with a wall .... foaming at the mouth in the corners and bleating about how they are right on something. Maybe Trump or his new press secretary who promised not to lie and then did so 12 seconds latter.
> 
> 2. If a person does not understand when GDP of a nation rises from 9 trillion to 22 trillion, and the cash it has on issue rises accordingly ...  as one would expect, then comes back claiming to not understand, its besides the point even going further. Are you kidding ? Clearly cash on issue has NOT risen ... beyond growth in underlying GPD .... the opposite to what you postulate and your kooky theory is just that. Silly !!
> ...








1/1(a).  That I assume is the 'bite back'?




2. This is an explanation of why the money in circulation increased. Simply, the government as a Fiscal Policy determined that they wanted (or needed) to incur deficit spending. This is clearly Keynesian economic theory. Hence, the money supply (in circulation) expanded. Which is exactly what was stated above.

3. Simply that it can be inferred that you wanted the last word. To get the last word, you needed to wait until you thought that I had lost interest in the thread...which I had, before adding a post re-addressing the topic. That rather gives credence to an assumption of cowardice.

4. Who said anything about being friends. What does that have to do with the issues? I'll tell you for free. Nothing. It is simply another attempt to avoid the issues. You are scared of the issues. You have boxed yourself into a corner and are now looking for any escape hatch.

5. Another reference to your 'White Coat' argument. You claim to be a 'Market Professional' with a Masters Degree in Finance. So let us examine this claim:

(a) You seem incapable of forming a simple declarative sentence. This makes we question the validity of your claim of successfully completing a Masters Degree.

(b) Your unprofessional demeanour on this thread, again raises doubts (in my mind) that you actually a professional in any profession, never mind (as you claim) a senior position within a finance firm.

(c) You complete inability to actually argue cogently the issues. Your entire effort seems to directed at ridicule the poster, or belittle them in some manner, believing that by doing so, somehow you demonstrate your authority or intelligence on the subject.

(d) You actively avoid the issues. If you were actually what you claim to be, you would engage in the issues with arguments based in facts etc. Your complete inability to do so, simply is evidence that you are lying, a fantasist.

6. I provided two examples (indicated by a time reference) in your video, where my argument was supported. Of course you never actually addressed those issues at all. Rather, as currently, you want to try and imply that I ignored your video and that this video was evidence that totally supported your position. Further, this video was only tangentially relevant to the question in issue.








7. You cannot hold a coherent position for more than what, a few seconds? 

jog on
duc


----------



## kahuna1 (13 May 2020)

I presented it, your view, opinion of course differs from all presented. Going ahh hah ... two professors are wrong ... really ?

At that point, your debate or views, became very clear. Illogical and fanatical in nature.

Move along ... or whatever ...  please start your thread. Or continue with circular disagreements about MMT. Some believe the world was created in 7 days. Some believe as you do in MMT and Drip down economics. Some believe Climate science is all fake.

I prefer not to debate facts or science beyond what I already have done.
No amount of facts, experts or anything will alter your clearly displayed concrete views on the topic or I suspect many others.

Is it a log ... or an alligator or lets debate its a crocodile ?


----------



## kahuna1 (13 May 2020)

_*12th May 2020 USA ...* 


*"Seventy-two individuals who tested positive for Covid-19 in Wisconsin recently attended a “large-gathering” before their diagnosis, according to a report. The information comes to light after last month hundreds of people in Wisconsin attended a mass protest at the governor's stay-at-home order."* _

_*The Supreme Court is taking up the case of Donald Trump's financial records this week, and the White House is going to argue that the President has "absolute immunity" from subpoenas and other investigations while serving in office. If they are successful with their arguments, it will mean that the President, regardless of who is sitting in this office, will be above the law. If they lose, Trump has to turn over his financial records.* Ring of Fire's Farron Cousins explains the potential ramifications from this case. _

Comment …. Same powers as a dictator and he, the President is above the law. This is before the Supreme court of the USA. A dictatorship it is ? He can shoot someone, anyone, and no investigation and NO potential ramifications. USA dictatorship is supreme in the USA and globally ? Likely at least a few Trump Supreme court appointments will vote to actually allow this radical change to the rule of law. Astoundingly one might add. Absolute immunity …. no law is valid for the President of the USA under Trump and the future.


*Dr. Anthony Fauci warned the Senate Health, Education, Labor and Pensions Committee that reopening the country too soon “could turn the clock back” and lead to “suffering and death that could be avoided.”*_ ” Dr. Fauci added that the death toll is “almost certainly” higher than official counts He added: “There’s no guarantee that the vaccine is actually going to be effective.” _



*Rand Paul to Dr. Fauci: “I don’t think you’re the end-all” on coronavirus and “I don’t think you’re the one person who gets to make a decision.”*_ Dr. Fauci replied: “I have never made myself out to be the end-all, or the only voice in this. I’m a scientist, a physician and a public health official. I give advice according to the best scientific evidence. … I don’t give advice about economic things. I don’t give advice about anything other than public health.” (Reuters / Axios) _


Comment … Rand Paul is or was a doctor of Ophthalmology. Ophthalmology is a branch of medicine and surgery which deals with the diagnosis and treatment of eye disorders. Dr Fauci is a doctor who has all his life specialised in contagious diseases. One of them is the expert.


As I presumed, Dr Fauci has had enough of political spin and BS. Clearly so.

*Yesterday: Trump declared that “we have prevailed” over the coronavirus as U.S. deaths from the disease exceeded 80,000.*

Some USA states if one looks are going back to work despite increasing cases and case numbers DOUBLE and even triple those of Spain the most infected large nation.

*An unreleased coronavirus task force report shows coronavirus infection rates are spiking to new highs in several cities and smaller communities across the country, contradicting Trump’s recent claims*

*Mike Pence will be “maintaining distance for the immediate future” from Trump after consulting with the White House medical unit. It is not clear exactly how long Pence plans to stay away from Trump. *

Trump was heard to breathe a sigh of relief and break from the VP, just kidding or likely not !!

*Trump promotes conspiracy theory accusing MSNBC’s Joe Scarborough of murder*.

Lets distract you with another idiotic distraction.

*Speaker Nancy Pelosi and House Democrats unveiled a new $3 trillion coronavirus rescue bill that would direct money to state and local governments, health systems, and other initiatives.*


This bill has NO chance of passing. Even if it did, Trump would veto it. Unbelievable but he demands a capital tax gains cut as a part of any further stimulus. Pelosi a corporate democrat, identical to Republicans in the USA and its Kleptocracy is actually proposing a bail out of lobby groups as well in her bill. This beggars belief.

So far the 15% of GDP stimulus which is already 3 trillion, of this the USA sent 86% of this to the top 10% and crumbs for the lower 90%.

This much needed support for the lower 90% of USA is unlikely to pass as already the top 10% have their handouts and massive tax cuts.

If you cant hear cracks appearing in the USA as the events just keep coming I suspect you never will.


If this goes to the usual play book of the USA a few things will occur.

1\Dr Fauci will not appear again with the president of the USA at any press gathering, or if he does, he will NOT be allowed to speak,

2\ Some magic cure will be touted yet again and a magic rally will ensue.

3\ The numbers and virus with no political agenda other than devouring stupid people, will continue to wreak havoc. Actually going back to normal with more infections for some states than Italy ? Brilliant !!

4\ USA will likely give yet another tax cut to the rich and the desperation and starving masses will get some relief, whilst, absurdly … fiscal viability beyond Covid19 already is on shaky ground for the USA.

That the USA equity market rallied back to pre Covid19 levels and 2,950 on the S+P 500 is amusing. That interest rates are zero and likely there for some time and tax cuts already handed to the 1% make it optional this concept of tax for Mr Gates and Buffett and Bloomberg was that driving force.

Dr Fauci said it all. A vaccine is not assured. The list of things that may permanently be altered in this new world potentially are massive. The journey, whilst we wish it was over, has some time to go even at an at best rate. A vaccine and immunity for life that works 90% of the time is NOT guaranteed and clearly far from it via scientific data being collected. What we don't know is massive verses this revisionist propaganda spewing form the USA and in some part the UK as well.

Australia, NZ and some other nations have done well. Others despite best efforts like say Singapore and their immigrant workers in cramped quarters have done not so well. Germany even is struggling with a great response and contact tracing but the infections are still continuing at an alarming rate. They have stated they want the number down to under 200 a day, but stubbornly its staying around 4-5 times that level.

If one said American actions are alarming, and likely to dictate the world equity and investment markets as always, would be understating the impact the USA has on the world economy. As they used to say “USA sneezes and the world financial markets catches a cold”.

USA has not a cold, not the flu, its has something 10 times worse. The denial and political posturing whilst a pandemic is going on is astounding. Tax cuts for the rich, lets put 40 new judges with no qualifications into lifetime positions. Lets conduct provocative actions against Iran and China and Russia with the naval exercise in the Barents seas whilst everyone is distracted.

The leadership of the USA is not distracted. Despite an ability to mitigate the effects, lets not act quickly, then send people back to work after all wishes are granted via tax cuts and unlimited funding for the CEO's.

I have no idea where this ends. Is immunity granted via getting sick ? If so for how long ? A vaccine ? Will it mutate again ? When USA decides its all well, will it demand its tourists entry to other nations ?

I wrote the above early on today. Of course, one of those magic rallies ensued when the USA was and is asleep and its 2 am NY time, over the last 4 hours up 1.5% off the lows. 

I think Kim Ill Jung the North Korean leader is alive and well as can be seen in the following …. video.







I am not sure I have ever seen so much ass kissing, ever. Kim Il Jung seems to be sporting a new hairstyle.

Back when USA hits 100 k which well should be sadly not too long away.



Stay Safe.


----------



## ducati916 (13 May 2020)

kahuna1 said:


> 1. I presented it, your view, opinion of course differs from all presented. Going ahh hah ... two professors are wrong ... really ?
> 
> 2. At that point, your debate or views, became very clear. Illogical and fanatical in nature.
> 
> ...





1. Did I say that 2 professors were wrong. No. Incorrect. I said that at 2 reference points (time provided) that the 2 professors supported my argument. Maybe you could actually address that issue. I won't hold my breath.

2. Actually constructing a grammatically correct sentence would be a good starting point. Perhaps then you could actually identify which arguments/views are 'illogical' or 'fanatical'. 

3. You seem to think I support MMT. Wherever did you get that idea. I have never expressed that. Oh, that's right, you just make stuff up as you go along: you seem to be a compulsive liar.

4. Well if you could present even a single fact that disputes (not even proves) that the issue that you have been called out on that would be a great start. 

Here is the issue:




You remember...the US is not printing money, because, you know, its currency would implode and cause a collapse of the currency.

jog on
duc


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## kahuna1 (13 May 2020)

Bzzz ....

When a discussion has a starting point, its easy at times to distinguish what is opinion and what is not.

1\ Facts, and in this case accounting or what the transactions involve. Debits credits, assuming of duration and risk and/or credit risk. Not something that normally is disputed ever.

2\ Next comes inferences and evidenced by past events that have occurred time and again, identically. Scientific proof of concept. Same experiment conducted 1,000 times and expecting a different    outcome ?

3\ Then we have opinions or guesses.

4\ Conspiracy theories and with this group bizarre ideas that are actually believed almost like a religion.

Ben Bernanke and Janet Yellen two past heads of the Federal Reserve were believers in MMT. Not just a political convenience but an absurdity was believed by them both.

When having any discussion about a topic I find it helpful and non time wasting to establish 1 and 2 from the above list. When a person challenges and actually denies science or accounting in favor of number 3 or god forbid number 4, I tend to first check 1 and 2  and then basically rather than waste time sit them in the corner with a Chinese puzzle whilst they rant.

Janet Yellen and Ben Bernanke do believe in their theories. As does the gent with his ideas about how it works. Yellen and Bernanke both postulated that bubbles are not possible to see, not possible to pop and as such never took the time to do so, Hence the GFC. Yellen amusing after San Francisco house prices had doubled said she saw no inflation.

This was a core belief of hers as I suspect your theories are. She was along with Bernanke devoted followers of an economic cult that, well ... had a response that was to lower all interest rates always and it was impossible to see a bubble, let alone to prick that bubble and let the steam out.

For 200 other nations on earth this view, was absurd. For example the RBA and having sat next to one board member for some time, this view and that of the RBA is quite different. MMT and Drip down economics and its proponents are viewed as delusional. If you ever meet say Phillip Lowe or any past RBA head, run your pet theory by them.

Yes it is possible say to deflate a bubble in many ways, both fiscal and via monetary policy of the central bank. That even basic accounting in MMT people and drip down economists escapes them is funny and I am sure I can not change their strongly held religious beliefs.

Not going over what a bond buying program is again, as its, futile. Pricking say a bubble in residential housing can be done several ways without imploding the economy or its surrounds. Fiscally one could make tax on capital gains on investment properties double the current rate or impose a massive land tax. On banks and their lending, the central bank or APRA in our case can alter the reserve requirements a bank needs to hold down to the specific type of loan. Owner occupied loans, investment and even to interest only loans. Doubling the reserve requirement on the latter two usually does the trick to prick the bubble.

Whilst somewhat off topic, I am not seriously going to debate Janet Yellen with any hope of her changing her views or opinions or conspiracy theories about how things work.

Nor am I going to debate or waste time when someone without even basic understanding of facts, accounting or scientific clinical past events. It would be akin to stopping and  listening to some person clearly disturbed in the street and taking notes on their views.

That would be, strangely stupid and whilst I did so recently on one thread, after say 20 pages of 150 plus pages where science and theory were abandoned, I am not about to do it again. Once you have established in someones universe, facts, accounting, scientific past events did and do not suit their opinions or conspiracy theories, its time to tune out.

Stomping your foot, badgering and well trying to convince me the world is flat in your world will not work.

Nor would I expect Bernanke or Yellen to accept that MMT or Drip down economics does not work and for the latter, its never worked. Not once, Not ever.

Conflating bond buybacks via MMT with actual outright printing of money shows, well, how little you understand. They are two very different things. Clearly so. 

That possibly I did not spell this out, thinking surely one was aware of this, you seem to have totally missed possibly due to lack of even basic understanding of the topic. 

Such is life.


----------



## Country Lad (13 May 2020)

I think some of you are being a bit tough on the USA, after all, the Commander In Chief has it all under control.
**


----------



## ducati916 (14 May 2020)

kahuna1 said:


> Bzzz ....
> 
> When a discussion has a starting point, its easy at times to distinguish what is opinion and what is not.
> 
> ...




1- 4.  So what are the facts under discussion?




The facts under discussion are whether:

(a) Is the US 'printing money'; and
(b) If it did (or was) would it's currency implode; and
(c) That creating 'money' out of thin air would cause a currency collapse.

The sub-issue is Mr Sadjii's response. But we cannot even get to that until we solve the primary issue(s). I am advocating Mr Sadjii's position by default, in that I agreed that he was correct in his position. Of course the evidence that supports the sub-issue is contained within the primary issue(s). So in resolving the primary issue(s) we actually move to proving the sub-issue.

Those are the issues (above). Evidence posted by Mr Rederob and endorsed by yourself, by re-posting Mr Rederob's chart via Federal Reserve, prove that you are incorrect in your assertions (a) - (c).




This is proven with the facts:

(a) The US is printing money. This (above) is a chart of money in your pocket money; and
(b) The US currency (to date) has not imploded; and
(c) The US currency has not yet collapsed.

Therefore all of your assertions are incorrect. Are you ready to move forward?

I actually need go no further. However, out of politeness, I feel obligated to at least try and address your numerous other points.

5. Certainly I can agree that they both embraced aspects of Chartalism.

6. Still need to work harder on your sentence construction, but I do understand your point. Why don't you follow your own advice?

7. So many issues in one paragraph:

(a) Bernanke/Yellen believe their theories (Chartalism); and
(b) I believe my theory; and
(c) Both B/Y postulate that bubbles cannot be seen/popped or managed, hence created GFC; and
(d) Yellen was amusing: post doubling of house prices in SF and she saw no inflation.

(a) You actually have no idea what B/Y actually believe. You can comment on what they did, adduce evidence to support your viewpoint and make a case. You could potentially infer a 'belief' based on probability, but you do not know factually (unless you know them personally and have discussed this topic with them) what they believe.

(b) See above.

(c) I'm willing to accept that. However, you provide nothing but your opinion as evidence. Why should I accept it, especially from someone like you, a nobody on the internet?

(d) The use of the word 'amusing' turns the statement into nothing but personal opinion. As such, it is from you, a true statement, but one that I can accept or discount.

8. See [7a].

9. Simply self-pontificating opinion. See [7a].

10. I'm sure there is an argument in there somewhere. However until you can structure it in a coherent manner, it simply cannot be addressed.

11. You are discussing ways to burst a financial bubble. You provide 6 different possible approaches. What you have done is:

(a) identify an issue (financial bubble); and
(b) identified 6 ways in which (according to you) that financial bubble would be burst through implementation of 1 or more of these solutions.

That is the intended consequence.
What of the unintended consequences? Are there any? Do you know what they are? How could you manage them? Etc, etc.

12. Probably a wise decision.

13. I'm guessing that could be myself. I am however open to the idea it could be Bernanke or Yellen, you seem to move in exalted circles (at least in your own imagination).

14. Someone else I take it, disagrees with you. I'm shocked.

15. Remove the mirror.

16. Prove it.

17. Actually old chap, it is you who is confused, once again, the issues:




The evidence:




The only person discussing MMT/FOMO, is you.

I infer you are raising the red herring because you know that you are simply wrong. Instead of just accepting the error and moving on, you have such a monstrous idea of your own self-importance, you simply can't. The result is that you are now trapped in a nightmare of your own making.

Which is interesting given the nature of this forum. I remind you of this statement:




You claim to be a 'trader/investor'. Traders/Investors (the successful ones) know when to fold a position and move on. Therefore the inference is that you are either:

(a) Unsuccessful and just a 'wannabe'; or
(b) You are not actually a Trader/Investor for a large firm, viz. Investment professional at all, but simply someone just interested in the financial markets, trading their own account.

18. The problem for you is this: I actually understand the topic better than you do.

jog on
duc


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## kahuna1 (14 May 2020)

Bzzz ....


----------



## kahuna1 (14 May 2020)

ducati916 said:


> You are not actually a Trader/Investor for a large firm, viz. Investment professional at all, but simply someone just interested in the financial markets, trading their own account




Tee hee .... yep .... you got me. Strangely some actually know my name .... might disagree with your latest conspiracy theory.  Then again, who cares what a conspiracy theorist thinks ?

A few years ago two economists won the Nobel prize. One Schiller ... believed you could see bubbles, the other winning at the same time ... Fama ... for the total opposite theory about Chicago style economics that markets always represented the correct prices at all times.

Both actually had a go at each other, whilst accepting the prize at how silly the others ideas were.

Obviously, I am a value investor. Whilst Schillers index for housing can and is easily perverted, Fama and his Chicago style theories ones shared by Bernanke and Yellen are insane.

Stating that I dont know what I am talking about, or well ... I am wrong, which, honestly does not matter ...  when two winners of the Nobel Prize win for totally different and opposing ideas, cannot even agree.

Your insistence, your correct, your theory is correct .... is pathetic.

Seriously ... you know more than I do about the topic ? IT is a theory, one is proven by fact and the other is just horse poo. That your still beating the drum about QE actions are printing money out of thin air is at best something even Fox news would not run. Central bank buys bond ... an asset .... pays for it with a promise to pay a liability ... whether its a credit in an account or a note ... or promise to pay ... the net end result is ZERO.

The bond matures ... the trade is reversed.
The bond is sold ... the trade is reversed.
Both will occur over time.

In the interim, that one asset is now in the central banks hands ... and a credit which is a liability on the other side.

That's a QE bond action.

MMT going full hog .... is printing actual cash, which the USA has NOT done above the growth of the GDP in dollar terms, would and does eventually impact the value of the currency.  Government can just keep printing money to pay off its debts. The currency, if they did this, would .... crash.

Again.... you dispute this and well ... congratulations you have found me out.

I am a nobody, from nowhere ... who actually admits he knows nothing. The last is certainly true. Certainly a legend in my own mind and glad to be so.

Please some more, so I can take notes... and be inspired by your wisdom.


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## ducati916 (14 May 2020)

kahuna1 said:


> 1. Tee hee .... yep .... you got me. Strangely some actually know my name .... might disagree with your latest conspiracy theory.  Then again, who cares what a conspiracy theorist thinks ?
> 
> 2. A few years ago two economists won the Nobel prize. One Schiller ... believed you could see bubbles, the other winning at the same time ... Fama ... for the total opposite theory about Chicago style economics that markets always represented the correct prices at all times.
> 
> ...




1. You start with another misrepresentation:




Here is what was actually said:




Understand the difference?

I'm sure you do. The reason I'm sure is that by removing the context, you alter the meaning of what was said. You need to alter the meaning of what was said because you cannot actually use the existing evidence to support your misrepresentation.

2. And this relates to the issues how? Not at all. Why pollute the thread unless there is actually a premise hiding in there somewhere.

3. If you say so. Far from obvious to me.

4. And this addresses the issue(s) in question how? Again, not at all.

5. So your argument seems to be this: if 2 Nobel Prize winners cannot agree, then this somehow proves that my assertions against you are...?

An example would help. But then of course, that example would probably be accompanied with some form of evidence (from myself), which again changes in a material way your attempt at providing an evidential basis for your assertion. This seems to have resulted to date in a number of misrepresentations and lies being highlighted.

6. I have not actually expressed a 'theory' at all. What I have done is provided you with evidence, which you yourself cited: this was originally posted by Mr Rederob.




Accepting that currency in circulation has increased. That old chap, is not a 'theory': that is a fact.

7. I have never mentioned QE on this thread. Another lie. See how it works: you lie, I identify the lie.

8. Asked and answered:




GDP can grow because of money (credit) expansion. That is not of course the only reason that can cause GDP to grow. But it is a relevant reason given the issue(s) being argued, which are:




9. A sentence without any coherency.

10. (a) You are an internet nobody. Correct. 
(b) You do not claim to know nothing. Incorrect, another lie.
(c) Is again incoherent: a contradiction.

One thing that I have noticed is this uncanny similarity to Mr Trump, whom you discuss ad nauseum. You demonstrate no embarrassment in your lies. You simply carry on telling further lies. Ironic.

jog on
duc


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## kahuna1 (14 May 2020)

I bow before your wisdom ...

Please ... the buzzing noise ... stop !!
Also turn off your web camera its very distracting whilst I take notes on your theories.




Bzzz bzzz bzzz


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## kahuna1 (14 May 2020)

Last try ..

That you lack even the understanding of what and why the M1 has risen, and deny you ever mentioned QE is an astounding admission of your total lack of understanding of the issue.

QE .... where the central bank ... buys bonds and then issues credits in accounts, notes or whatever ...

One is an increase in ASSETS held by the central bank, they being securities and bonds, IN the case of the USA its holding post GFC went from under 1 trillion to now  4 trillion.

It has risen by 3 trillion. Its assets ... 




Opposing this ... YES its novated all risks ,... taken them onto the goverment side, that being both Duration risk and also actual Credit risk or Counter-party Risk as a lot of these NEW securities are NOT goverment treasuries or even close, they are Mortgage backed securities from the GFC with 20 plus year terms still left.

Simply put, one would expect there to be an equal and corresponding CREDIT on the other side. Not printing money, not devaluing the currency ... it is NET zero. 

This is in your pet M1 ... an expansion of M1 ... your evidence such as it is.




You will note ... ONE has risen 3 trillion and accordingly so too has the other.
One being an asset .... one being actually a liability or what the FED owes for its bond purchases via its promises to pay and credits to accounts institutions hold at the FED.

NET NET ... zero.

QE is a convoluted part of the Chicago MMT and drip down economics theories. 

The Fed has removed as such 3 trillion in long dated debt form the overall market and replaced it with zero dated promises to pay. Not cash on issue. I already provided the CASH on issue FRED chart which you even disagreed with that.

If in say 2000, the USA economy was 9 trillion in 2000 dollars. Each year GDP growth and small inflation now has the GDP as 22 trillion. Of course the money in circulation issued by any central bank will and should rise as the GPD and Inflation makes the nominal amount of dollars need to be higher over time. If say in 1925 when the USA economy was around 100 billion, and now its  22.5 Trillion so its 225 times larger one would expect currency issued to be 225 times MORE than in 1925 or somewhere in that region.

Conflating and confusing ... what M! is and why its risen 3 trillion in 10 years without understanding the USA federal reserve now holds 3 trillion MORE in assets ... bonds ... one side ... liabilities ... the money or promises to pay totally cancelling out the NET ... making it zero ... I would have thought an easy concept to understand.

One is a debit ... one is a credit. One is a liability .... one is an asset. Focusing on just one side, the M1 without looking at the other side or sides ... in this case ...  if I look at USA Fed total liabilities ... 




So inside the FED .... the liability is the above and the asset is holdings of bonds.

The M1 is the impact on the outside ... of the QE action. IT is all about QE ... not anything else at this stage.

I am hoping and in fact praying this explains the transaction and gives some greater understanding of WHY the M1 has expanded ....  and its irrelevant overall ... other than supporting the credit markets and is not actually printing money to inflate their way out of it.


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## ducati916 (14 May 2020)

kahuna1 said:


> 1. Last try ..
> 
> 2. That you lack even the understanding of what and why the M1 has risen, and deny you ever mentioned QE is an astounding admission of your total lack of understanding of the issue.
> 
> ...




1. Let us hope so.

2. I have never mentioned QE, far less advanced it as a theory of anything on this thread. That, as we shall see, is the foundation of your confusion.

3. I understand what QE is. Here is your error: QE is Monetary Policy. Mr Sadjii and therefore myself are not discussing Monetary Policy. We are discussing Fiscal Policy. Fiscal policy is also executed through the Federal Reserve. Which is why this explanation was posted and why you are so confused and wrong:








Government deficit spending is Fiscal Policy. Here is the Wikipedia link: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Fiscal_policy_of_the_United_States

I have highlighted the relevant passage for you:




4 -17. Now if you had been respectful and actually read what was provided to you, viz. that what was actually being discussed was Fiscal Policy and not Monetary Policy at all, just think how much more intelligent you would have appeared instead of demonstrating your complete lack of attention to detail.

jog on
duc


----------



## kahuna1 (14 May 2020)

I did try ....




ding ding ding ding ....

please at least turn down the sound,.


----------



## kahuna1 (14 May 2020)

Moving on ....


*Trump and the coronavirus task force is pushing the CDC to change its methodology for how they count coronavirus deaths, which could lead to far fewer deaths being counted than originally reported*. The Trump administration specifically wants the agency to change how it works with states to count coronavirus-related deaths. Dr. Deborah Birx has reportedly urged CDC officials to exclude from coronavirus death-count reporting for individuals who either did not have confirmed lab results and are presumed positive or who had the virus and may not have died as a direct result of COVID-19. Trump has suggested that coronavirus deaths could have been incorrectly tallied or inflated by current methodology. Dr. Anthony Fauci, however, said the U.S. death toll count is likely higher than is reflected in government data. Meanwhile, researchers have developed a new method to compare and merge coronavirus models into a single “ensemble” projection. The result? 110,000 dead Americans by June 6. Total U.S. deaths currently stand at ~84,000. (Daily Beast / NPR / Washington Post)


Dr Fauci is out ... and religious far right Dr Birx is in !! Hmmm .... whom do you prefer ?

Possibly they can find another few islands to bury the bodies as they did in NY ?


----------



## kahuna1 (14 May 2020)

Gosh ....

Worse .... far worse ...

all in one day.

*Trump’s “Lightning Fast” COVID-19 Test May Be Seriously Flawed, New Study Shows*
According to their findings, at least one-third, and as many as 48 percent, of tests used in the ID NOW test present a false negative result, compared to other tests where nasal swabs are used. In other words, close to half of the results from the Abbott Laboratories test may not be trustworthy.

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/arti...vid-cases-unreviewed-study-says?sref=jFvCme3g

Golly ... get a test, it says your safe  ... and it has a 50% fail rate ?

You must be joking ? This Nation is a circus. Lets hide bodies and create tests designed not to work.

Virus meanwhile is so happy and excited that the White House itself is using this test !!


----------



## joeno (15 May 2020)

kahuna1 said:


> Moving on ....
> 
> 
> *Trump and the coronavirus task force is pushing the CDC to change its methodology for how they count coronavirus deaths, which could lead to far fewer deaths being counted than originally reported*. The Trump administration specifically wants the agency to change how it works with states to count coronavirus-related deaths. Dr. Deborah Birx has reportedly urged CDC officials to exclude from coronavirus death-count reporting for individuals who either did not have confirmed lab results and are presumed positive or who had the virus and may not have died as a direct result of COVID-19. Trump has suggested that coronavirus deaths could have been incorrectly tallied or inflated by current methodology. Dr. Anthony Fauci, however, said the U.S. death toll count is likely higher than is reflected in government data. Meanwhile, researchers have developed a new method to compare and merge coronavirus models into a single “ensemble” projection. The result? 110,000 dead Americans by June 6. Total U.S. deaths currently stand at ~84,000. (Daily Beast / NPR / Washington Post)
> ...




The 4th Reich can't be having commie/athiest scientists

Hyperbole aside, it's another day another Trump tirade. The world needs to sanction him and America until they get a better system in general on every level from political to corporate. A lot of people are tired of their bully tactics and warmongering. I don't agree with China but trying start WW3 because the virus "originated" from there is beyond ridiculous. Can the world nuke America for the swine flu? Can we bomb em for AIDS? How about for the GFC.


----------



## kahuna1 (15 May 2020)

ducati916 said:


> Now if you had been respectful and actually read what was provided to you, viz. that what was actually being discussed was Fiscal Policy and not Monetary Policy at all, just think how much more intelligent you would have appeared instead of demonstrating your complete lack of attention to detail.




That being creating money, printing it out of thin air ? I did read as you say what was provide to me, in fact read it a few times.

Fiscal policy is run by elected officials.

Monetary policy is run by independent central banks. Ours the RBA the USA Fed Reserve.

The central bank does NOT dictate or run fiscal policy, nor does it implement it. It has NO control over goverment deficits or taxes or spending. NONE. It also has little control over the issue of debt via the goverment to fund its activities. It can make recommendations to the goverment and what maturities to issue, but for say Australia its a different body that runs the issuance.

Fiscal policy cannot ... and does not set nor ever has set recently how much money is printed. This is the role of the Monetary policy side. In this case of the USA the Federal reserve. It does not take orders from USA Treasury about issuing notes. Printing cash or what levels to do so is NOT a fiscal policy. Whilst the USA Treasury engraving department prints notes, it takes instruction from the Federal reserve NOT the president or any elected official.

Monetary policy is run by the central bank. Most have similar mandates, IGNORING at times totally the wishes of the goverment of the day. In the case of the Federal Reserve its actually not even owned by the goverment, its owned by its member banks. Its member banks appoint heads of the various branches and then, recommends board members to the President who then are approved by the Senate. Removing say a Fed Chair as Trump recently mumbled about is virtually impossible prior to their term expiring. Trump, was upset, the Fed was raising rates when he wanted them falling. This was PRE Covid19.

Central banks wear a few hats and some roles are often shared between other independent bodies.
Main role is to maintain LOW inflation.
Secondary main common role is full employment implying decent GDP growth.
Other is financial market liquidity and stability along with supervision
Another is currency stability.
Supervision of banks and their adequate provisions for capital and so on.

Different nations often share this with other similar totally Independent from the government bodies. APRA is Australia and so on.

That these TWO vastly different things, Fiscal policy and Monetary policy are not understood is clear.

Being not rude, but in utter disbelief, I counted 30 or more urban myths and insane theories you postulated. 30 !! You and Sandiji.

M1 ... which you keep pointing to. USA abandoned M3 I think some time ago, but yes its expanded.

Every day it expands and contracts. Waving I told you so that they are printing more cash due to your chart whilst ignoring the Economy went from 9 trillion to 22.5 trillion so of course, cash on issue, INCREASED  .... to facilitate commerce cash issued went up accordingly.

Having now wasted a few hours reading your beliefs, and trying .... trying to understand ... your theories, but failing because they are contrary to not my opinion but, total and complete lack of understanding or economics even at a basic level.

I do think where your being led astray with M1 and your theory is or error I can now see.

You showed a Wikipedia definition of what is in M1 ... which was, incorrect in so far as its incomplete.

Yes cash notes and coin ... but ... also  inside M1 there are demand deposits.

USA Federal reserve is a bank. It requires others to firstly have capital reserves there which it is required to pay an interest rate upon. Secondly over and above those are excess amounts that also require interest to be paid upon. These are DEMAND deposits.

Able to be demanded with NO notice at all. They are part of the M1 as are cheque accounts which one may have with a bank, they can be demanded with NO notice.

Since Trump declared an emergency mid March 2020, USA Federal reserve has barely issued any new cash. NONE  ....

The M1 has however risen by over 1,000 billion. The printing of cash did not occur.

The actual QE amount of new bonds the Federal reserve purchased was much more than 1,000 billion.

M1 .... whilst it has Demand deposits and those accounts that pay interest via the FED .... the rate and mechanisms going on are complex. Being polite, that, our level of understanding is clearly vastly different, I will simply somewhat. The Federal reserve every day has a cash target. It conducts open market operations to increase or decrease liquidity of cash to get the CASH rate being traded for overnight cash to its target. That's 0.25% right now.

IT does so, via either adding liquidity or draining it.  It will enter repurchase agreements where it buys bonds or Tnotes ... issued by the Treasury, not the Fed ... and credits their account. Or it will do reverse repos .... they are a SWAP .... they may be overnight, or for a few days r a week and recently pollution the issue was extreme illiquidity in this market and the Fed had to do term repos for much longer periods.

All these effect M1. Not for long and for good reason. Cash rate is 0.25% ... the rate paid for reserves and excess in your Fed account is 0.1% ....

If as you postulate and insist that M1 going up or down has anything at all to do with Fiscal policy or clear absolute evidence of printing money is incorrect.

A bank will not keep excess funds it needs above reserves paying 0.1% when the overnight cash rate is 0.25% .... it would have an opportunity cost of 0.15% which on billions is massive. Some with these accounts and non banks but requiring demand deposits they will need accept this penalty and in extreme times often the banks themselves USA this top of the line, central bank as preferred despite the cost as they are unsure of the credit risk or counterparty banks even massive ones. At times one sees the two largest banks NOT lending to to each other excess reserves of cash and the central bank one side being used a ultra safe depositor ... rarely ... but other side lender of last resort and using things like the discount window.

QE and bond buying, same thing, DURATION s just different.
Instead of an overnight liquidity swap ... I give you my bonds a security and the next day I give them back when you return cash plus 0.25% interest. .... QE or outright bond buying ... 1 month 1 year one decade ... same thing. No different. That the Fed is buying NOT USA goverment issued Treasuries or notes, but lower grade ones, but Premium A+ ... credit rated, is another  topic.

The goverment does not order the Fed to do it, it does it by itself. Monetary policy.

The Central bank cannot order the goverment to raise or lower taxes, and in the case of the USA fed, it rarely even comments on the absurd dent the USA has and insane Fiscal policies. Running a massive 5% to GDP deficit pre 2020 when stock markets are at all time highs, INSANE. Doing the same running a stimulus via over spending when employment is at all time lows, again insane.

Conversely .... the goverment cannot .... order the central bank to issue currency in the form of notes, nor what level of interest rates is correct.  That is monetary policy.

Of course one wants things rowing in the same direction. both momentary and fiscal policy set to either stimulate or contract activity. Sadly, its often not the case, and Fiscally the USA was all taps open in 2019 whilst ignoring the debt, deficit and all other things. Fiscally they halved the tax paid by cooperates since 2000 as a percentage of GDP and 33% of the 1980 level.

USA ... is run for the few.

I am hoping, but not seriously expecting this to help a better understanding of Fiscal and monetary policy.

If you were to suggest every day as the central bank is adjusting liquidity via buying or selling bonds or shorter term notes, its actually printing cash, and wheeling it around,or then burning it, when draining the liquidity,  the actual process of what M1 and M2 and roles of Fiscal and Monetary policy may become clearer.

Have fun


----------



## rederob (15 May 2020)

joeno said:


> Can the world nuke America for the swine flu? Can we bomb em for AIDS? How about for the GFC.



What about for *Fox News*?


----------



## investtrader (15 May 2020)

This (orange dotard aka trumplethinskin) shall pass.....


----------



## kahuna1 (15 May 2020)

investtrader said:


> This (orange dotard aka trumplethinskin) shall pass.....




Sadly toilet paper supplies are insufficient to aid with this event due to the "Fake Flu"


----------



## kahuna1 (15 May 2020)

Its just keeps getting more evident.

Humans matter for naught. 

*150,000 Americans Sacrificed for the Stock Market': Kushner Reportedly Advised Less Covid-19 Testing to Calm Wall Street*

https://www.commondreams.org/news/2...rket-kushner-reportedly-advised-less-covid-19

SAME STORY different outlet ...

https://truthout.org/articles/trump...ared-kushner-said-it-would-spook-wall-street/

Gee this is even the best of the 14th May 2020. 

Back with a tantrum ... I was expecting one ... possibly two ...


----------



## kahuna1 (15 May 2020)

This tantrum was expected .... still actually amusing ....

Dr Trumps first tantrum ... 

*Trump criticized Dr. Anthony Fauci’s warning about the risks of reopening schools and businesses too soon as “not an acceptable answer,”* accusing the nation’s top infectious disease expert of “wanting to play all sides of the equation.” Trump, however, told reporters he was “surprised by his answer,” adding: “To me it’s not an acceptable answer, especially when it comes to schools.” Past public disagreements between Trump and officials have been followed by an eventual dismissal or resignation. See: Tillerson, Rex; Sessions, Jeff; Bolton, John; Kelly, John. (New York Times / Washington Post / CNN / ABC News / NPR / NBC News)

Second, just as amusing ....

*Trump, Azar attack ousted vaccine doctor as "disgruntled employee*
*Trump: "*To me, he is nothing more than a really disgruntled, unhappy person. ... I don't know, I never met him, I don't want to meet him, but I watched him, and he looks like an angry, disgruntled employee who, frankly, according to some people, didn't do a very good job."


https://www.axios.com/trump-azar-rick-bright-testimony-603ec8db-e57d-41c8-b84c-9f9813b30619.html

Classic ... I thought a vaccine was important ? 

The Whislteblower ... and a third Tantrum erupted .... on Trump twiiter show ...

*Whistleblower Rick Bright Details Failure to Act on Mask Shortages*
Dr. Rick Bright on the moment he realized the US was headed toward a crisis: “We’re in deep ****. The world is. We need to act,” 

https://www.motherjones.com/coronav...ght-details-failure-to-act-on-mask-shortages/

Being fair ...

Democrats in USA are identical on the main to Republicans.

Nancy Pelosi had a new bill for 3 trillion. About 15% of USA GDP ...
She is a democrat ... 3rd Richest in the house.
A corporate democrat, kleptocrat identical to Trump in many ways ... 

In Nancy Pelosi bill .... Lobbyists get bailed out ... loan sharks .. and the humans ? Well forget them.
Possibly she can get some funds for more Botox and plastic surgery  for herself ? 

*Debt Collectors Get a Bailout in Democrats’ New Pandemic Relief Bill*

https://www.motherjones.com/politic...ailout-in-democrats-new-pandemic-relief-bill/

I await the next Tantrum ... meanwhile food-bank lines are, astounding and half those who applied for unemployment have been rejected or not processed as of 14th May 2020.


----------



## ducati916 (15 May 2020)

kahuna1 said:


> 2. Fiscal policy is run by elected officials.
> 
> 3. Monetary policy is run by independent central banks. Ours the RBA the USA Fed Reserve.
> 
> ...




I have divided your post into at least 2, possibly 3 answers simply as you seem unable to be concise.

2. Correct.

3. Correct.

4. Correct.

5. Incorrect. If the government runs a program of deficit spending (spending in excess of tax revenue) then the government must either (a) borrow the money (transfer lending) or (b) create new money via monetising debt, which is facilitated via the Central Bank (Fed.).

6. Monetary Policy and Fiscal Policy, as already identified, are separate.

7. Your sentence lacks precision. If the government runs a deficit spending program and monetises debt to do so, money in circulation increases.

8. As stated, monetisation of debt is facilitated through the Central bank.

9. Monetary policy is. Correct. We are not however discussing 'Monetary Policy'. We are discussing Fiscal Policy. 

10. Correct.

11. Correct.

12. Correct.

13. Sentence lacks coherence. Try again.

jog on
duc


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## kahuna1 (15 May 2020)

And my tanty expectation



ducati916 said:


> Sentence lacks coherence. Try again.









ducati916 said:


> Incorrect. If the government runs a program of deficit spending (spending in excess of tax revenue) then the government must either (a) borrow the money (transfer lending) or (b) create new money via monetising debt, which is facilitated via the Central Bank (Fed.).




Hmmm thats why they are CALLED Treasury Bonds ... facilitated ... okey dokey, Mr Lawyer.  Yep in this case, not in Australia Fed runs the bond sales .... on behalf of Treasury. Not in Australia. 



ducati916 said:


> money in circulation increases.




You have been talking about cash .... one does NOT equate to the other. M1 ... is Cash or equivalents. What you have been yammering about ... printing cash. 

I have tried .... and failed ...



ducati916 said:


> you seem unable to be concise




Nice red dress. The ringing has been replaced by shrill screaming, sadly.

Again I ask please turn off your webcam when posting.


----------



## ducati916 (15 May 2020)

kahuna1 said:


> M1 ... which you keep pointing to. USA abandoned M3 I think some time ago, but yes its expanded.
> 
> 1. Every day it expands and contracts. Waving I told you so that they are printing more cash due to your chart whilst ignoring the Economy went from 9 trillion to 22.5 trillion so of course, cash on issue, INCREASED  .... to facilitate commerce cash issued went up accordingly.
> 
> ...




1. The economy, measured in goods and services produced, increases from $9T to $22.5T (your figures). There is no requirement for the 'money supply' to increase. A finite supply of money can accomodate any increase in production through the adjustment of prices.

2. More personal insults. Are you so insecure that you cannot communicate without personal insults?

3. Ok, wait for it.......

4. Incorrect. Here is the definition that I used:




Which comes from here: https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/CURRENCY

jog on
duc


----------



## ducati916 (15 May 2020)

kahuna1 said:


> 1. Yes cash notes and coin ... but ... also  inside M1 there are demand deposits.
> 
> 2. USA Federal reserve is a bank. It requires others to firstly have capital reserves there which it is required to pay an interest rate upon. Secondly over and above those are excess amounts that also require interest to be paid upon. These are DEMAND deposits.




1. Correct. But once again your lack of attention to detail demonstrates your error. We are (and were) discussing the 'currency' component of M1. Remember this chart that Mr Rederob posted on your behalf?




See at the top left...'Currency in Circulation'.

2. Agreed.

jog on
duc


----------



## kahuna1 (15 May 2020)

Ralph Please turn it off ...






M1 includes funds that are readily accessible for spending. M1 consists of: (1) currency outside the U.S. Treasury, Federal Reserve Banks, and the vaults of depository institutions; (2) traveler's checks of nonbank issuers;* (3) demand deposits; and (4) other checkable deposits (OCDs), which consist primarily of negotiable order of withdrawal (NOW) accounts at depository institutions and credit union share draft accounts. * Seasonally adjusted M1 is calculated by summing currency, traveler's checks, demand deposits, and OCDs, each seasonally adjusted separately.
https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/M1

Cash did not Move .... last month ... issued. ..
Your link ... no currency was printed.

Omitting Demand *(3) demand deposits; and (4) other checkable deposits (OCDs), which consist primarily of negotiable order of withdrawal (NOW) accounts* from your universe ....

to make your pet theory correct ?

*Ralph I am so sad !!*

THis is the currency ... you allude to ... since late March the chart ...
Currency in circulation includes paper currency and coin held both by the public and in the vaults of depository institutions. The total includes Treasury estimates of coins outstanding and Treasury paper currency outstanding. This definition of currency in circulation differs from the currency component of the money stock, a measure of currency used in some other Federal Reserve reports (for example, the H.6 release), which excludes currency held in vaults of depository institutions.

https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/WCURCIR#0



Virtually NO change  .... NONE ..
Then we have M1 ..

which is not just cash but the things your pretending are not included ...

(2) traveler's checks of nonbank issuers;* (3) demand deposits; and (4) other checkable deposits (OCDs), which consist primarily of negotiable order of withdrawal (NOW) accounts at depository institutions and credit union share draft accounts.

But also includes cash ... and coin ...

It has risen 1,000 billion.
*




So your theory ... they are printing cash ...
Cash on issue .... SAME ... rise in M1 minus change in Cash is 1,000 billion.

They are not printing cash. Where did this 1 trillion come from last moth if they were not printing cash as you seem to believe ? Clearly they were not.

As I requested maybe another thread for this, which did not occur I have been quite polite.

When told monetary policy is fiscal policy, or issuing debt securities is something else, Monetization which is issuing cash,  my responses have been restrained.

USA Treasury of course has an account with the USA Federal reserve. Its initial needs are met through sale of debt securities whether they be bonds or shorter notes. Unlike a bank, It does not require reserves always be there. Without looking, if it should run slightly the red via not issuing enough securities I believe its charged the Discount rate which is above the cash rate.

So when an economy size in dollar terms rises by 250% ....  the amount of cash the central bank is not needed to be adjusted accordingly ? CASH ... Cash on issue. Not M1  broadly ... nor M2.

Golly ...so in 1920 there was enough cash on issue with an economy a mere 100 billion verses 22.5 trillion 100 years latter ? Really ? My my ... 

And according to you ... there is no adjustment needed ? 

Thanks Ralph


----------



## kahuna1 (15 May 2020)

My comment

7. Printing cash or what levels to do so is NOT a fiscal policy.

This is the topic at hand. ... Printing cash.

Your response is

_5. Incorrect. If the government runs a program of deficit spending (spending in excess of tax revenue) then the government must either (a) borrow the money (transfer lending) or (b) create new money via monetising debt, which is facilitated via the Central Bank (Fed.)._


It issues debt securities *NOT cash*. Not coin. Not notes. Not currency.

Me ...
7. Printing cash or what levels to do so is NOT a fiscal policy.

your response ...
7. Your sentence lacks precision. If the government runs a deficit spending program and monetises debt to do so, money in circulation increases.

Monetisises is converting to cash. USA treasury issuing a debt security a bond, is not printing cash.

This is the NUB of what I believe your theory is.

We are as you said talking about a fiscal policy of printing cash or something like that.
I can go and get your exact quote ... it beggars belief, to be blunt.

Currency issued into the economy and at what level are decided solely by the independent Federal Reserve which has Nothing to do with Fiscal policy,

Wilbur Ross head of Treasury right now I believe cannot order the Fed to issue cash. Print money. Issue more coin. I believe it would require several changes to the actual constitution and about 10 different acts.

The notes, currency, yes if issued ... I would call a monetization as its increasing cash.
This obviously does not and is not occurring at any alarming rate outside the growth of the overall economy.

If the economy in the last 100 years has gone from 100 billion in size to 22.5 trillion, the currency on issue is that the economy is 225 times the size it was, one would expect the Cash as in currency and coin to be at least 225 times MORE than 1920 or say 2.5 times the 2000 level.

You wave the chart that shows an expected increase in currency issued over time as proof, again and again.

USA Bonds and Treasury bonds or shorter securities are NOT cash, they are debt instruments.

They are issued by the USA Treasury on behalf of the USA goverment Fiscal side activities.

Cash ... currency and coin ... for the last 100 years has been issued by the USA Federal Reserve. A private and independent company in the case of the USA. Of course, its implied its fully backed by the USA goverment. That is another debate about other issues which, I neither have the inclination or desire to enter.

One is issued by the Fed ... the other via the USA Treasury.
One is cash ... currency ... the other is a debt security.

Quite different and distinct.

Every time this distinction is pointed out, you allude to Fiscal policy. Fiscal policy ... has not much to do with printing cash. Nor does the Federal reserve on the main with fiscal policy decision other than basically collecting the rubbish via assisting Treasury sell its debt securities.

To  omit things to suit your view as highlighted. I am not sure if its baiting or trolling ? Or merely strongly held religious type beliefs akin to conspiracy theories. An aside, but when presented with such things, dogmas and gibberish theories, I initially was polite. I am still being polite given the responses. 

It is what it is. On every note issued ... right at the top ... FEDERAL RESERVE NOTE ... along with the seal on the left and whilst signed by the Treasury department and their seal, not issuance is solely under Federal Reserve since 1913.

Enough ... Please dont come back. Start a new thread as was suggested some time ago.


----------



## ducati916 (16 May 2020)

kahuna1 said:


> 1. Yes cash notes and coin ... but ... also  inside M1 there are demand deposits.
> 
> 2. USA Federal reserve is a bank. It requires others to firstly have capital reserves there which it is required to pay an interest rate upon. Secondly over and above those are excess amounts that also require interest to be paid upon. These are DEMAND deposits.
> 
> ...




1. Correct.

2. Correct.

3. Correct

4. Incorrect. However I notice that you have made a number of additional posts, so I shall defer the evidence till then.

5. Incorrect. However I notice that you have made a number of additional posts, so I shall defer the evidence till then.

6. Haven't checked.

7. Agreed.

8. Agreed.

9. For the moment I would accept this. Unimportant to the discussion.

10. Incorrect. However I notice that you have made a number of additional posts, so I shall defer the evidence till then.

11. Beyond the scope of discussion. Irrelevant.

13. Monetary Policy. Irrelevant to discussion.

14. Correct.

15. Correct as to premise. Your opinion irrelevant.

16. Government, when running a fiscal deficit, issues debt, which the Fed. monetises. This is expanding the currency component of M1. Do government employees get paid with Treasury Securities? No.

17. Opinion. Irrelevant.

18. Opinion. Irrelevant.

19. Opinion. Irrelevant.

20. Non-sensical. Irrelevant.

jog on
duc


----------



## ducati916 (16 May 2020)

kahuna1 said:


> And my tanty expectation
> 
> 
> 
> ...





Nothing on this post actually requires an answer or response.

ASF is a community of likeminded people (for the most-part) interested in the financial markets. The community will be a mixture from all walks of life.

Here we have a chap, who claims to be involved professionally in the finance industry, which means that he and/or his firm, will have clients.

Would you send drivel like this to your clients?

jog on
duc


----------



## ducati916 (16 May 2020)

kahuna1 said:


> 1. M1 includes funds that are readily accessible for spending. M1 consists of: (1) currency outside the U.S. Treasury, Federal Reserve Banks, and the vaults of depository institutions; (2) traveler's checks of nonbank issuers;* (3) demand deposits; and (4) other checkable deposits (OCDs), which consist primarily of negotiable order of withdrawal (NOW) accounts at depository institutions and credit union share draft accounts. * Seasonally adjusted M1 is calculated by summing currency, traveler's checks, demand deposits, and OCDs, each seasonally adjusted separately.
> https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/M1
> 
> 2. Cash did not Move .... last month ... issued. ..
> ...




1 - 6. The definition in [1] is correct. [3] & [4] relate to [2]. 

_"Cash did not Move .... last month ... issued. ..
Your link ... no currency was printed."
_
A number of points:

(a) This is incorrect, as is demonstrated by the chart that you posted within this post; and
(b) Even if you were correct, that is not the issue.

So to (a)




This details the weekly average of currency in circulation: starting 6 April 2020 we have $1,880B. Ending 11 May 2020 we have $1,925B +/- for an increase of +/- $45B in currency.

Therefore your assertion in (a) is incorrect.
As for (b): as usual, you ignore the actual issues and through misrepresentation (lies) try to alter the issues. Clearly this is just to try and dig yourself out of the hole that you have dug.

7. Incoherent.

8. That cash has increased by $45B +/-, rather suggests that they are expanding the money supply old chap.

9. Irrelevant.

10. They haven't been restrained. They have been either incorrect, irrelevant, unprofessional and childish.

11. Irrelevant.

12 - 14.  I thought you claimed to have a Masters Degree in Finance and to have an expert grasp of Economics? More lies? Clearly, as that was economic theory.

jog on
duc


----------



## ducati916 (16 May 2020)

As you have altered the format somewhat, I'll adjust how I respond.

My comment
(i)  Printing cash or what levels to do so is NOT a fiscal policy.
(ii) This is the topic at hand. ... Printing cash.
Your response is
_5. Incorrect. _*If the government runs a program of deficit spending (spending in excess of tax revenue) then the government must either *_(a) borrow the money (transfer lending) or (b) create new money via monetising debt, which is facilitated via the Central Bank (Fed.).
_
(i) As you see from my quote above: Fiscal Policy consists of the bold and underlined, in purple. 

(ii) The issue is not 'printing cash': the issue is:





Next.

It issues debt securities *NOT cash*. Not coin. Not notes. Not currency.

*If the government runs a program of deficit spending (spending in excess of tax revenue) then the government must either *_(a) borrow the money (transfer lending) or *(b) create new money via monetising debt, which is facilitated via the Central Bank (Fed.).*_

Which is stated: see underlined etc in green.




Me ...
7. Printing cash or what levels to do so is NOT a fiscal policy.
your response ...
7. Your sentence lacks precision. If the government runs a deficit spending program and monetises debt to do so, money in circulation increases.

Correct.

Monetisises is converting to cash. 

Correct.


USA treasury issuing a debt security a bond, is not printing cash.

Correct.

Your issue is that the two statements (above) are both true statements, but they cannot be the basis of a syllogism.



This is the NUB of what I believe your theory is.
We are as you said talking about a fiscal policy of printing cash or something like that.
I can go and get your exact quote ... it beggars belief, to be blunt.

Clearly, if that is your best effort of a summary of my position, from a self-proclaimed Finance Masters graduate and senior Finance professional, you can see why I remain dubious about your honesty.


Currency issued into the economy and at what level are decided solely by the independent Federal Reserve which has Nothing to do with Fiscal policy,

Incorrect.

Wilbur Ross head of Treasury right now I believe cannot order the Fed to issue cash. Print money. Issue more coin. I believe it would require several changes to the actual constitution and about 10 different acts.

Irrelevant. 

The notes, currency, yes if issued ... I would call a monetization as its increasing cash.
This obviously does not and is not occurring at any alarming rate outside the growth of the overall economy.

Refer to your chart in previous post.

If the economy in the last 100 years has gone from 100 billion in size to 22.5 trillion, the currency on issue is that the economy is 225 times the size it was, one would expect the Cash as in currency and coin to be at least 225 times MORE than 1920 or say 2.5 times the 2000 level.

Why?

You wave the chart that shows an expected increase in currency issued over time as proof, again and again.

Not 'expected', actual increase.

USA Bonds and Treasury bonds or shorter securities are NOT cash, they are debt instruments.

Correct.

They are issued by the USA Treasury on behalf of the USA goverment Fiscal side activities.

Correct.

Cash ... currency and coin ... for the last 100 years has been issued by the USA Federal Reserve. A private and independent company in the case of the USA. Of course, its implied its fully backed by the USA goverment. That is another debate about other issues which, I neither have the inclination or desire to enter.
One is issued by the Fed ... the other via the USA Treasury.
One is cash ... currency ... the other is a debt security.
Quite different and distinct.

All irrelevant to the issue in question.

Every time this distinction is pointed out, you allude to Fiscal policy. Fiscal policy ... has not much to do with printing cash. Nor does the Federal reserve on the main with fiscal policy decision other than basically collecting the rubbish via assisting Treasury sell its debt securities.

Incorrect. See above.

To  omit things to suit your view as highlighted. I am not sure if its baiting or trolling ? Or merely strongly held religious type beliefs akin to conspiracy theories. An aside, but when presented with such things, dogmas and gibberish theories, I initially was polite. I am still being polite given the responses.

Your responses have been: either incorrect, irrelevant, unprofessional and childish. The first 2 are not in issue as anyone can be guilty of that. The latter 2 are however an issue.




It is what it is. On every note issued ... right at the top ... FEDERAL RESERVE NOTE ... along with the seal on the left and whilst signed by the Treasury department and their seal, not issuance is solely under Federal Reserve since 1913.

Correct. 

Enough ... Please dont come back. Start a new thread as was suggested some time ago.

jog on
duc


----------



## kahuna1 (16 May 2020)

ducati916 said:


> Your responses have been: either incorrect, irrelevant, unprofessional and childish. The first 2 are not in issue as anyone can be guilty of that. The latter 2 are however an issue.




Hi Bert,

Thanks for your opinion.

Three questions, since I am fascinated.

*I take it you are or were a lawyer or with similar training ?*

Obviously still not a full time one, but via your responses ....

*Second question is another suspicion that you live in America ?*

third is ....

*Do you normally speak another language ? Just suspect via your writing style and form possibly your not American born but live there ? *

I mean no offense, just, wondering.

On the rest will plod through it.

QE or expansion of money supply, where we agree I suspect to disagree about printing money is an aside.

Of course asset buying expands the overall volume of money out there.
I already know your thoughts on this issue without asking I suspect.

We would both agree via buying the bonds, any bonds nowadays, not just treasuries its good for stocks.
Disagree about the rest more than likely.

I would also point out, the big macro picture, your missing via your beliefs. Not that I can ever prove it, because we would be talking about the future. You seem like a day trader. Picking pennies up in front of a stream roller. Obviously a technical one, but with an interest in the other side, macro and economics.

Amusing, we have not a thing in common. I do look at charts, but only after going via a top down look at things.

I have already shared whom and accurately what I am. Irrelevant in this discussion, and I am not asking you to reveal anything other than 3 hunches. In trade I will reveal, how I can prove whom I am, Not that it matters.

So my 3 questions ? Just interested.

One of yours questions  answered ... Would you send drivel like this to your clients?

I dont have clients as such. My income and wealth are not tied to servicing others.
I passed the point of even requiring that many years ago. Actually I never was that end of the business as I said. You seem to doubt that, but I never have needed to serve clients, or their needs, since I started in 1982. Again if you answer my fascination  on 3 questions, I will prove it.


----------



## Bill M (16 May 2020)

This why I hate guns and why I would never live in the USA. If every red neck in the village can have one then it is a failed state.


----------



## kahuna1 (16 May 2020)

ducati916 said:


> Currency issued into the economy and at what level are decided solely by the independent Federal Reserve which has Nothing to do with Fiscal policy,
> 
> Incorrect.




Really  ? They changed the act ? Along with 5 others that would need changing whilst I was asleep. I did quote the 1913 act. Someone else is able to issue notes and is doing so in the USA ?

I note, the two key issues where we stumble, you have gone they are irrelevant or not answered. Cash goes up and down and round and round. That 4.5% of the 1,000 billion increase in a month in M1 is via cash and the rest is something else seems to elude you.

On issue. That in 1920 the economy in the USA was 100 billion and in 2020, was 22.5 trillion, there would likely be say 10 billion of cash as such on issue. In 2020, USD is used instead of local currency on the main as the currency in 7 nations that the USA has invaded and destroyed. I believe each of them alone has 10 billion of USD in notes, in circulation. That's the whole total of the notes on issue in 1920.

Of course as the size of an economy rises, so too must the notes on issue. I did provide a long scale of notes issued and USA economy rose 250% and notes issued rose around 290%. The difference being likely invaded and destroyed economies of other nations. So i suppose yes, they printed more money, but irrelevant in the bigger picture. It moved a total of 40% NET in 20 years in the already provided Chart of notes and currency on issue. In the meantime, Afghanistan, Syria, Venezuela, even inside Iran, Yemen, Libya and Iraq. Likely I missed a few, now conduct part of in some cases most of their transactions  in USD. There are others things such as the USA drug habit which are, amusing but the missing cash that month was likely a disruption in nose candy !!

Second easy one, is banks actions and Repo or QE flows.

You say its irrelevant.

Sadly so is monetary policy was your response.

Its missing the forest through the trees. Your myopic view of things. One dimensional. There are a few deeper dimensions which, since your not even seeing the first, I did not want to confuse you further.

I did try, however, failed. I await your answers to my curiosity before we proceed.

I would humbly ask you respond. Lawyer ? Or ex ? USA ? but not born there ? Language suspicion ?

It is relevant to our discussion we have been having.


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## explod (16 May 2020)

https://goldswitzerland.com/total-catastrophe-of-the-currency-system/

The world is stuffed


----------



## kahuna1 (16 May 2020)

explod said:


> The world is stuffed




Hahhah ....

Beyond my back an forth, which I assure you will be amusing in the end.
I too find say the USA to distract us, is again taking the trade war to another level.

Banning chips to Huwaei. USA stocks went not down, but UP.
Shocking numbers, it went down, then went up.

As per normal the plunge protection team is still bloody operating. Harder than even under Trump as he equates the stock market and its performance with the economy. Cooking numbers, magic cures, all is well ... get back to work peasants !! There is no infection.

I am astounded and disgusted by this. On a macro level outside the top 20% which includes all the middle class, they are broke.

BROKE.

Pre Cv19 they held a mere 7% of the assets in the USA down form 24% in 1980. Drip down economics work !! Well work for some.

Fed Reserve did a very large survey and 65% were living paycheck to paycheck. Given that half of the 35 million sent to the unemployment lines had their claims either delayed or refused and now most states are sending them back to work their outlook is dire. Estimated 40% did not pay rent last moth and none of that forgiving or delaying, your evicted !! Or you repay it pronto !! Not when Wilbur Ross head of Commerce owned a bank and like Steve Mnuchin head of Treasury now under Trump, ex Goldman Sachs type, they both foreclosed on people for trivial amounts. One for 84 cents and seized their house.

Ignoring all else. CV19 is a virus. We know what to do to prevent its spread. USA has not and did not do this, and now is sending people back to work. 

It did however offer a massive tax cut to the rich. It has bailed out large companies. On the main its ignored the needs of the many over the few.

What the virus does from here is sadly obvious. 
What state 80% of people in the USA are in right now actually is worse than at any period since USA was formed. Worse than even the depression for a simple reason, CV19 is there as well. Similar sorts of unemployment, all resources and assets depleted and so on.

The stock market DOES actually represent the economy. Not to agree with Trump, but its business's and they sell things and without people, customers, all be it peasants, those outside the top 20%, these business's even good ones cease to function. Not totally, but, seriously so.

People without money, all reserves gone, terrified in say 40% of the case for their life and health. Not just the old, many young, many have some disease despite being 40 that puts them or a loved one at risk. For others, drinking coolant or bleach, served by Trump will run around and think they are immune. Possibly they are, others not so lucky are not.

Whilst we hope for a vaccine we dont know. We dont know if your even immune to getting it again, because its new. It appears to again have mutated and hitting some very young people. Oh its bliss !!

Any and all economies are being hit. USA just I suspect ended relationships with China and possibly with many others via Trumps recent tangents over the F35 plane. China is about to declare USA and its products as totally unreliable and actually with cause. Its already banned non Chinese hardware and software beyond 2024, yet we have the NASDAQ  on the main ignoring this ? 

really ? It is off its highs, but, well ... competing with a nation that clearly is ahead of USA and its chips via recent ones from Huwaie and Alibaba along with 3 years behind 5G on the former and makes things that cost 50% ...

Its sad and amusing to watch. Sad for the following.

Watch it ... not being reported in the USA by mainstream media the massive food lines. Not just the poor, the food banks are  being swamped by middle class people dropped on their head and abandoned by their goverment totally. A goverment who rushed and bailed out big companies, even oil companies in 16 days and now 6 weeks latter many on these food lines have either not got a cent or had their claims rejected and sent back to work.

The virus numbers for yesterday 27,000 new USA infections and now with close to 3 hours to go another likely 27,000 infections identified. Of course many times that NOT identified and back to work. NOW !!

Amazing ... sickening. Disgusting. And all on display. 



I hope you watched it. 
If already prior to that there were 30 million in trouble ... now there are 100 million in the USA without food security and in dire straights.

Lets rally !! 

Not anti USA, as I am pains to point out I like and love some yanks and lived there for many years.

This is disgusting and horrendous where USA is now in 2020. Lets send them back to work in a pandemic and ignore and downplay the virus, along with economically starve literally people back to work.

Sigh .. I await Ducs reply ... for some amusement value as to who he is verses my hunch.


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## Bill M (16 May 2020)

kahuna1 said:


> Amazing ... sickening. Disgusting. And all on display.
> 
> 
> 
> I hope you watched it.





I watched it and I am saddened by it and it shouldn't be happening in the richest country in the world. What really upsets me even more is Trump being the leader and can fix it all but he chooses not too. Will the people of the USA be dumb enough to vote this clown back in? Surely not?


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## SirRumpole (16 May 2020)

kahuna1 said:


> Hahhah ....
> 
> Beyond my back an forth, which I assure you will be amusing in the end.
> I too find say the USA to distract us, is again taking the trade war to another level.
> ...






It makes a mockery of their under 4% unemployment stats that Trump crows about, but some know that you only have to do 1 hour of work a week (or is it a month ?) to be off the unemployment stats.

Their underemployment rate must be staggering to have so many relying on handouts.


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## kahuna1 (16 May 2020)

Bill M said:


> Trump being the leader and can fix it all but he chooses not too. Will the people of the USA be dumb enough to vote this clown back in? Surely not?




With extreme regret, I think its likely. As a resident for many years and still having many friends there, its a cult. USA itself and its exceptionalism is even more so.

A bubble where the media without a BBC or ABC or any free media of much substance, the news is either one version of another. I would have thought if say we had 100 million or 30% of our population literally needing to go beg for food it would cause every and all people to take action. Not idiots with guns but the public outcry would be massive. If however its not on the news, or its not happening to you, who cares ? 

The narrative there, not just Fox news is get back to work and a positive if not delusional one. Trump yet again overnight touted the benifits of the Malaria drug which FAILED so far 5 clinical trials and was dangerous. That it does more harm than good is contained in these clinical scientific trials.

For many, in the USA, my friends, some believe every single word. Inside their bubble despite NY state being the most infected puss pot on the planet and I live there, the Governor is seen as doing a good job. He did not act early, shut down early, gather supplies and so on. But compared to Trump and his uttering s, he appears at least sane. HE is a Democrat and Governors like State premiers here can act alone. In the USA they actually have far more power than ours via various things. Amazingly most are now slashing healthcare spending and one state which has a rainy day fund Ohio I think is not spending it and instead slashing education spending along with healthcare and at the same time sending people back to work. 

To anyone outside this Bubble ... in the USA we watch with horror at USA and UK who is at least now trying and their results. As for Sweden in 21 days it will pass Italy with infection rates per million. Not Spain yet, but it will get there. 

NO negative words against the Republican party or USA will be accepted. Your a commie or leftist or Democrat. I add, they are no better than the other side, just less brazen. Trumps core support of racist white men, gun nuts, old people, religious anti gay anti abortion ... will never change.

Biden, well, is pathetic and an old 75 years he is.

I would hope for change but Trump is running a reality show.
For the vaccine he ran a shark tank event and they got 3 minutes to present and make their promises and he decided, not a doctor or virologist. Moderna for example got 484 Million USD to develop its vaccine. Its never made a drug, never made a vaccine. Its NOVEL ... and NEW approach may work, it may not, we dont even know at this stage if your immune if you get it. IT appears, being a new virus if you get it seriously you do have antibodies after 2 weeks. Since its 6 months old, we only know at this stage LIKELY your immune with full blown CV19 you are likely immune for 2 weeks which is when they were tested for the antibodies. If you dont have it seriously ... it appears NO immunity or at best very limited.

Trump today just touted a vaccine in massive numbers by January 2021. Really ? It is and was taken as gospel much like his proclaiming it would go away at 15 cases ...

I have hopes for a vaccine, but well founded fears which experts have expressed about IF .... IF one is possible. WHO World health all week has been saying this. USA out of 200 nations is NO longer supporting WHO ... all 199 others ARE. Pooling and sharing research and even development and bugger the profits !! 

This narrative, go back to work its safe in the USA is disgusting. Maybe they can play music as the Nazi's did in their disgusting acts from WW2 as the people were led into the showers. 

My best estimate, is 128k deaths by June 2020 and 250k minimum by end of 2020 in the USA. I would add 20 other people who are world class computer projection model builders have a median of 250k. Being honest and given the changes to narrative and actions of some states actually opening as cases rise, the likely number for me is closer to 500 k by end of 2020. That the USA and Trump is clearly already trying to alter the CDC reported number of deaths and lower the reported number when its by experts agreed its much higher and Dr Fauci who now has the gloves off, said its not bloody lower its higher.

Ahhh... sad.

My magic wand is broken to make it all better. I thank the stars we live here. Acted early hard and fast. Germany same thing, it was however hit earlier and harder, yet they have done  very will via testing tracing and isolation.

Sadly for Italy hit likely first and France and Spain via social norms of kissing on cheeks the spread rate was, shocking. 

I pause to think about those poor yanks, even the Trump devotees and their fate. They are human. They do matter over the stock market. Bailing out oil companies ? all and sundry ? Whilst they starve ? 

Yikes


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## kahuna1 (16 May 2020)

SirRumpole said:


> It makes a mockery of their under 4% unemployment stats that Trump crows about, but some know that you only have to do 1 hour of work a week (or is it a month ?) to be off the unemployment stats.
> 
> Their underemployment rate must be staggering to have so many relying on handouts




Yep ... despite the recent gent questioning my economics ... and background which I shared your correct.

USA participation rate is at 40 year lows end of 2019 pre CV19 ... or near that.
job quality index ... 40 year lows ....
Medical costs in reality 3 times our own.

USA last set of numbers the participation rate crashed. Not counted ... if the total workforce you count is smaller. Our did the same ... we fell 2.5% which is an impact of 3.7% on the reported unemployment rate so it was in fact ... all thing being equal .. not 6.2% here but 9.8% plus Job keeper numbers so 15% plus.

USA ... their non farm payroll numbers ... BLS ... each month and how they measure them a joke. Some states have shocking unemployment. It only lasts 12 weeks ... then NO more. No money. Florida and Texas the worst from memory and Georgia not good either. Once they stop paying you, you can still get counted but waiting for over 2 hours to get served, not to get any help or payment ... just to get counted ?

Nope.

On the Job quality index and some of Trumps mutterings about Latino employment and African American. I would point out their jobs pay 60% of white ones. Stating that say record numbers of African Americans are employed is correct. So too has the population grown !! Of course there are more employed and so too Latinos which have doubled population size since 1980.


I looked a few years ago at this issue in detail. There were at the time around 17 million jobs verses the GFC lows. Yes some were high paying ones. Growth in say Web jobs and computer stuff over and above the underlying growth of the USA economy.  Lots of manufacturing jobs lost, quite well paying and a lot of office higher paying jobs lost and replaced with, much lower paying paper shuffling ones.

So the highest sectors to gain or recover jobs post GFC ? Drum roll .....
Food and Beverage low paying jobs. A lot $3.40 an hour plus tips. Many casual, so if you have 3 of them ... you have a job. About 3 million there ... so 20% ..

Next  .... another drum roll .. Human Robot jobs. Amazon type warehousing jobs rose 3 million so another 20%. Their pay whilst $15 an hour ... 32k a year, no sick leave one weeks paid holiday ... or if your sick. 28k after tax and Social security. Minus $40 a week for your medial insurance ... so 26k in hand. Your medical insurance needs the first 3k paid by you ... how generous of Bezos then $1,500 co pay .... where you pay half. With a family, a mere visit to the doctor there $600- or an emergency room the drip and visit is $2,000. So with kids, .... your left ... with ... 22k for food, car, rent

Next ? Medical jobs, wiping old peoples bums and assisting them. Not nursing homes but aid and rehab after an op and the total of these jobs post GFC was close to 5 million in various forms. All low paying.
That took it to 70% of them. then we had UBER and gig things leaving 20% quite decent  jobs but the rest ... were not good.

Hence why so many need food stamps. Why so many have no medical insurance and rely upon Medicaid in the USA which is shocking. Worst than shocking, car crash ... yep they fix you but in 20 states NO rehab when you loose your legs, no wheelchair. do they dump them on the street ?

Anyhow ... sad ... where both parties and not to rag on Trump alone. where the USA is.

This link to job quality index. Apologies if I am a bit out of date verses the links data.

https://www.jobqualityindex.com/

I do have many issues with this index. It does NOT take into account healthcare costs and the absolute need of you have a family to have medical insurance. Low paid jobs and Amazon benifits as I covered are accurate, Amazon does pay SOME of the medical insurance but ... not all. The lowly paid person needs to pay 2k out of net wages then 3 k as the deductible prior to the insurance paying a cent then $1.500 in co pays so . .... 6.5k out of 28k after tax and I forgot ... Pharmacy stuff is partially covered but another $500.. which at USA prices is done easily. SO 21k is the NET ...

This index on job quality is helpful, but ignores, totally this NOT covered and massively increased insurance.

To buy it if self employed, same 3k deductible and then 1.5k  co payment and say $500 ... you pay for the fist drugs you need would be.... and is around $8k policy. So an 8k policy and you get to pay 5k more. Insane doesn't cover this. Then you get to play with the insurer and hidden costs, no that doctor in our hospital is not covered $800 out of pocket ... you need treatment ... your insurer suggests sugar pills instead of treatment and refuses to pay.

This is USA employment and medical in 2020 PRE CV19.

Quick take its near or at index lows.
USA healthcare spending officially now at 20% of GDP for awful cover.
In 1980 it was 6% of GDP.
It had a weighting on CPI of 6% in 1980 ,,, and a mere 7% in 2020.

Since this index did not start till long after that and without researching appears NOT to take this into any account, post 1990 the healthcare costs and what is NO longer included and covered has at least tripled. Making lower paid jobs ... even worse than this index is showing.

Paying the peasants with wooden tokens and CPI gains which, well dont cover the actual CPI at all. Same for how they measure rent in the CPI and house prices along with many other things. If your pay is increased at CPI if your lucky and its missing 1% more than the usual 1% gap ... over time ... your paid wooden tokens. 

Better run.

Was hoping my play mate Ralph would come back about his latest M1 theories and answer my suspicions as to his location and profession. It seems cruel but it will be amusing his response or if  he does. I am very curious. Ralph ? Ralllpph ? where are you ?


----------



## ducati916 (17 May 2020)

kahuna1 said:


> 1. Hi Bert,
> Thanks for your opinion.
> Three questions, since I am fascinated.
> *I take it you are or were a lawyer or with similar training ?*
> ...




1. Irrelevant to the issue(s) under discussion.

2. My position (should) be clear: a government that runs as a Fiscal Policy, deficit spending, will have to acquire increased cash holdings. This can be done through (a) borrowing (debt) or (b) issuing debt and monetising that debt.

3. Correct. However if you accept this point, it is a small step to Mr Sadjii's original premise.

4. Correct.

5. Irrelevant.

6. Irrelevant.

7. Uninterested.

8 - 10. Probably just as well.

jog on
duc


----------



## ducati916 (17 May 2020)

kahuna1 said:


> 1. Really  ? They changed the act ? Along with 5 others that would need changing whilst I was asleep. I did quote the 1913 act. Someone else is able to issue notes and is doing so in the USA ?
> 
> 2. I note, the two key issues where we stumble, you have gone they are irrelevant or not answered. Cash goes up and down and round and round. That 4.5% of the 1,000 billion increase in a month in M1 is via cash and the rest is something else seems to elude you.
> 
> ...




1. You claim to have cited the Act. Where? I saw no citation in any of your posts. Of course I accept that it is possible that due the length and incoherency of your posts I missed it. Still, highlight this citation and I will discuss.

2. The issue under discussion is 'printing (creating/expanding) the money supply'. Cash is the issue. Therefore as far as this discussion is concerned, the rest is irrelevant.

3. And your point is?

4. Incorrect. There is no necessity to increase the volume of money in an expanding economy. That is the purpose and function of prices. This is simply economics. Government expands or inflates, for a reason. 

5. Irrelevant.

6 - 7. Irrelevant.

8. How is it relevant?

jog on
duc


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## kahuna1 (17 May 2020)

Morning Bert,



ducati916 said:


> 7. Uninterested.



Yep ..  You should be.


ducati916 said:


> 1. Irrelevant to the issue(s) under discussion.



 Actually it is, amusingly.



ducati916 said:


> 3. And your point is?



Cash ? Notes issued ? You are alluding to printing of cash as in currency.



ducati916 said:


> 4. Incorrect. There is no necessity to increase the volume of money in an expanding economy. That is the purpose and function of prices. This is simply economics. Government expands or inflates, for a reason




SO in the USA in 2020 there are 500,000 ATMs alone and in your world, the 10 billion in notes and coin on issue in 1920 are not needed to be increased ever and in 2020, these 500,000 ATMS likely have 50k on average in each of them. That being 25 billion all be themselves. Not counting multiples of cash on issue inside the banks themselves in the vaults, and the 1920 total issued cash .... of 10 billion is enough in 2020 ? But 25 billion is 250% of all the cash on issue in 1920 seems to be ignored ? 



ducati916 said:


> 5. Irrelevant.



Uh huh  doesn't suit you goals ?



ducati916 said:


> 6 - 7. Irrelevant.



Yep /..... Ditto above.

I must admit, I fell for it.

Whilst discussing printing money, cash notes ...  is somewhat outside the thread, it is relevant in the USA debt size exploding.

I think I could and would talk around and around this topic, if that was something I would play. Sadly, I will not.

Who and what I am is relevant, not to my understanding, but ongoing issues that seem clear now.
Imagine if someone told the truth ? shock horror. Not to add weight to their argument but who or what they were and are ? Its relevance sadly will become clear.  As a fossil and one who, well for now accept at face value I was telling and am telling the truth. Strange concept I suspect for some.

A person who started in 1982 in finance and whilst working full time may or may have gone to Uni part time at night done shall we say 2 full pages of courses undergrad and post grad that others would love to have on their CV. In the meantime went from a lowly bank teller to the head of trading of one of the largest institutions in the nation. That was 20 years ago. Instead of going to uni full time, I started working young. This I will add is  not so relevant other than the following.

I sadly am honest. Long ago, central banks ruled the roost and at a very young age I was made a full dealer at a trading bank, aged 22. Unheard of.  RBA the Reserve bank here in our nation, celebrated and sent an auditor to sit next to me for weeks. It occurred for about a 6 month period to every person promoted to full dealer at larger institutions. Supervision of markets was quite different back then. Over the years, now decades, its changed, but along the way imagine how much the various Government bodies and supervisors actually know about your experience, academic qualifications and so on ? It would make my head hurt. Not to sell products to the public, but strangely enough the goverment like to know they dont have maniacs or snake oil salespeople running their institutions or in senior positions.

Over the years, sadly, its been required at times to take action when needed.

For me, having been blessed I look upon posting to sites over the years as a thinking board, giving back to an industry I love and also back and forth to of course learn and discuss various things. Along the way many amusing things often occur.

One site in Australia, I actually got voted as the biggest looser by what appeared to be a group of posters for not agreeing to their ramping of a stock. It was a pump and dump. The stock was being pumped internally and externally, and on chat sites. Releases to the ASX were, at best false, directors were dumping the stock which had magically risen 40 fold via an internet chat room frenzy along with other forms to pump the stock. I got barred from the site, "hot copper" after sparring with some of the people promoting the stock. Over the years I tend not to get involved, unless, something annoys me.

I just went to the authorities with my suspicions and evidence, and amusingly enough, the rumors were from one source. He had multiple logon names and nics and he was charged. Dumpers f the stock were fined and so on.

Amusing to be told one has no attention to detail as an argument. Trading and back then, one only rose for that very trait, along with making money. Its rare I take action. One had the keynote speaker at an ASX conference suddenly not appear, a man who sold snake oil systems called Larry. Another amusing one was via a company with clearly insider trading going on, stock would fall, magically secret messages appeared on chat and trading sites and then magically an official release on the Stock Exchange would appear. Turned out the majority owner, his daughter, various family members and a stock broker were ramping the stock. It was amusing the end outcome.

I rarely act.

The owner of this site Aussie Joe seems like a reasonable fellow. He already has had legal issues with some idiots and he, like others is highly supervised via authorities. ASIC may appear its asleep, but it isn't. As most Australians know the Banking Royal commission gave them a very poor grade and their tolerance for shonky practices and scams and so on in 2020 is less than zero.

I have no desire to hurt or harm Aussie Joe's site or  cause him any hassles. I would of course protect him if I could in a world where most, are not honest and many are doing things for ulterior motives.

Since you have seen fit to, well not answer my questions and that is your right, I was wondering since your clearly legally trained if you would care to comment before I proceed ?

I have some more questions I will ask and likely Joe the owner of the site will be fascinated as well.


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## ducati916 (17 May 2020)

kahuna1 said:


> 1. Cash ? Notes issued ? You are alluding to printing of cash as in currency.
> 
> 
> 
> ...




1. What is your point?

2. The point, which you either don't understand or choose to ignore is: any amount of money will suffice in an economy. There is no requirement to expand the money supply as an economy grows. Why? That is the function of the price system. This is economics. It is somewhat outside the scope of the discussion. You seem to have enough trying to focus on the issue. Which is:




3. Irrelevant.

4. Incorrect. The issue is: can the US print cash to retire their dollar denominated debt, without their currency imploding etc (as per above).

5. Irrelevant.

6. Who you are has zero relevance for me, either for or against. I am not interested. What you post (words, arguments, etc), is how this discussion moves forward to some form of conclusion, that interests me. Evidence that you provide: that interests me. So far, plenty of the former: nothing of the latter.

7 - 8. You are simply trying advance a 'White Coat' argument. I'm not interested in 'White Coat' arguments as they are simply logical fallacies. They prove nothing related to the issue(s).

9 - 14. Irrelevant.

15. Irrelevant.

16. Irrelevant.

17. Your questions have no relevance to the identified issues.

18. Irrelevant.

I note that you have not pointed me to your claimed references and citations of 1 or more Acts (sections/clauses/etc) that you claim to have provided, which would provide evidence for your original premise (see above at [2]).




I will at some point check the validity of your claim of citing the 1913 Act.

jog on
duc


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## kahuna1 (17 May 2020)

ducati916 said:


> the rest is irrelevant.




Please turn off your webcam.



Back with a response when the ringing clears.


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## kahuna1 (17 May 2020)

Found these amusing and alarming ....

*Despite public health experts repeatedly cautioning that developing an effective coronavirus vaccine will take at least a year to a year and a half, Trump claimed that the coronavirus will “go away at some point” and declared – without evidence – that a vaccine would be ready “by the end of the year, maybe before.”*Trump urged state governments to reopen their economies regardless of whether the timeline was met, suggesting that the lack of a vaccine would not prevent the U.S. from reopening. “I just want to make something clear. It’s very important: Vaccine or no vaccine, we’re back,” Trump said. “We’re starting the process.”(CNN / Politico / CNBC / NBC News / New York Times)

*Trump called coronavirus testing “frankly overrated,” despite health experts insisting that it is critical to safely reopen businesses*.(The Hill / Politico)

*Trump Administration Wants Bosses to Snitch on People Scared to Go to Work*
The Department of Labor quietly issued guidance on Monday telling states that rooting out unemployment fraud is a “top priority.”

https://www.vice.com/en_us/article/...sses-to-snitch-on-people-scared-to-go-to-work

It must just be me. The virus numbers have been getting worse for 11 states, not doing much testing in another 22 states and reported deaths just hit 90,000. 

As per normal expect reported USA numbers for Sunday to dramatically drop due to VP Mike Pence and most of the remaining CV19 task force likely door knocking without masks asking to read the bible with you whilst coughing.

Incorrect about Dr Fauci not appearing with Trump again. He did, but wearing a mask. He did not speak. Possibly Emperor had him gagged or more likely had his tongue removed for not praising Dr Trump enough.

Stay safe and we are blessed here.

Take care 

Mark


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## kahuna1 (18 May 2020)

Yipee ....

Chopper talk. A drug that does not work but makes things worse !!
Then supposedly they had a new plan ? New bleached Trump cultist press sec ... waving the plan.
One wonders why they did not follow it.

1st March they had done ... USA ... the whole of it .... 121 tests !!
10th March 8,322 tests .... f or 330 million.

NSW which is 7.54 mio people had done 10,165 tests .... on the 10th March.
https://www.health.nsw.gov.au/news/Pages/20200310_01.aspx

That is adjusted for population size a ratio of more than 20/1.

USA did not catch up till recently and its infection rate overall of course is 15  times Australia.

Yes this chopper talk is all that USA media will publish, however the reality of past actions and incompetence is only matched by what is going on NOW. Today !!

Not dwelling in  the past. They should have been sacked for that. Sending states with infection rates ABOVE Italy back to work ? Active infection rates. Its hard to pick which is more obscene the past ? Or the future ?

We as non doctors know full well what occurs with this virus and its spread.
USA strangely is having massive protest of non mask wearing people who refuse to wear it, Trump is encouraging them and he attacks at the start of the following BS ... a governor from a State of course NON Republican state who is trying to protect his people via distancing and stay at home. Thanks moron is openly encouraging protests. Openly tweeting liberate the state and protest. His cult and fanatics to not wear masks ... this moron did not and does not wear one even at a CV19 hospital.

If your even wondering the outcome in coming months ?

THIS IS A VIRUS.

He is a moron. Moron verses virus ? Death and infection rates will and are actually now rising in 10 states with absurd active infection rates 10 times our own here in OZ.

Its not going to end well. Not a doomsday prediction but one, even a fanatic should be able to miss. Then again, having had a few discussions with fanatics even recently, they ignore, or claim things are irrelevant when it does not suit them.  No amount of fact or reasoning will change a cultists view. No rational discussion with Trump cult members will work. Even requesting they distance when outside is an attack on their freedoms. Asking them to wear a mask brings a tantrum of epic proportions.

Here is the following ... Chopper Talk ... by Resident of the White House Mr Trump !

I will add the market loved this BS .... a drug that does not work .... propaganda and more ... idiotic crap. He did this pre close and any excuse to rally ....

I personally dont see how any office block can work with social distancing.
At say 40 stories and 6 lifts, and 3 minutes per ride since everyone will be pressing the button. If you have 2 people in a lift, it will take 12 hours to go up and 12 hours to go down. Fire stairs with 5,000 people on them are a not go zone.

I am not sure if office blocks or units are going to be worth much unless we get a vaccine. 

Meanwhile ... stand if you must ... place your hand over your heart ... try not to laugh at his following chopper talk !!


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## joeno (18 May 2020)

Never would i imagine there would be almost 100,000 deaths from Coronavirus in the US alone! That's with the refusal to test in some areas of the country, the constant lies and exaggeration to boot.

I guestimated 30,000 when the virus was scourging Italy as a high-end ballpark. But boy did they exceed all expectations. Whatever happened to "i banned flights coming from Chy-Na from day one. We're doing better than 99% of the world. I banned from Europe too"??

It's almost like... they've had this virus spreading in the US since late last year


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## rederob (18 May 2020)

joeno said:


> Never would i imagine there would be almost 100,000 deaths from Coronavirus in the US alone! That's with the refusal to test in some areas of the country, the constant lies and exaggeration to boot.
> 
> I guestimated 30,000 when the virus was scourging Italy as a high-end ballpark. But boy did they exceed all expectations. Whatever happened to "i banned flights coming from Chy-Na from day one. We're doing better than 99% of the world. I banned from Europe too"??
> 
> It's almost like... they've had this virus spreading in the US since late last year



I looked over the US death rate and it is actually very high, irrespective of any fudging.
Right now US deaths are on target to exceed 150K, and that's not factoring in positive cases beyond today's date.
I cannot see the US with less than 200k deaths unless something drastic happens.


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## Knobby22 (18 May 2020)

If you look at the increase in overalldeaths for the same period it is around 10,000 a day.


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## kahuna1 (19 May 2020)

kahuna1 said:


> I will add the market loved this BS .... a drug that does not work .... propaganda and more ... idiotic crap. He did this pre close and any excuse to rally ....





Sigh.

A vaccine company given 483 million USD will say whatever.
Not to be a downer, but, to to plot back to work peasants .... the magic cure again.

Moderna this company ... is very very slick. Its shark tank presentation to Trump won the money. A company that has never had a drug approved, ever nor a vaccine.

WHO ... World health is wondering IF an actual vaccine will occur and that's 199 nations efforts pooled ... and USA rallies near 4% on this crap ?

Seriously ? A vaccine and in that any vaccine takes time to test. A long time. TO see what and if it works, See if there are longer term side effects. Basically needs 9 months or more ... if not 12-18 months of close monitoring given this bloody virus.

How long antibodies actually last for this virus ... is UNKNOWN. Its new. Reliable NON USA ... research is showing some serious issues on this front. Massive in fact. Moderna ... this crap ... like the Malaria drug but, well .... rah rah rha USA USA USA ....

But NOPE .... back to work peasants.

We will conduct instead of the anti vaccine party where idiots infect each others children with measles or chicken pox, NO .,.. USA is conducting an anti vax infection party with EBOLA .... I am sure its going to go well. CZV19 is not Ebola, but it also is not the flu.

We are starved for good news.
This test on 8 people ... stage one ...  STILL in the article is talking about maybe by January 2021 for a rollout. I have my extreme doubts given the other magic cures. Supposedly stage 2 test in June and 3 in July. NO gap ... or wait for them ... lets test on humans .No gap to see if stage 2 works and is safe  prior to testing on thousands stage 3 ? One month ? 

Maybe enroll death row prisoners ? Just tell them its a vitamin shot !! 


Are they mad ?



I wish I could have some faith or belief the company in question was anything other than a sham like Trump. Of course only time will tell.

So glad the bleach treatment works and strong light.

Fascinating but, equally disturbing.

Take care


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## kahuna1 (19 May 2020)

*The ex-pharma exec leading Trump's COVID-19 vaccine program has $10 million in stock options for a company getting federal funding*
https://www.businessinsider.com.au/...10m-holding-moderna-conflict-2020-5?r=US&IR=T

Company being Moderna ... of course. ... the one with the supposed results. 

Note the word OPTIONS .... which given the stock just rose 50% in a day likely were out of the money ones worth 10 million pre 50% rise, worth god knows what now.

Really ? Is anything at all normal or honest about USA in 2020. Not a question. A joke.

Whilst I suppose testing 8 people to see if their head does not drop off when given a vaccine is positive, reality is pre clinical trials usually in animals shows if they produce antibodies. Monkeys the usual used. I have not read Moderna's pre clinical stuff but I would be surprised if they did not and had not got an antibody response in monkeys.

About 95% of things that go to trials, FAIL, and only go to human trials after there is some promise shown ... to warrant it.

I just glanced at the article ... the person leading Trumps task force, this person .... not only options in Moderna ... he is an ex director of a company called MODERNA .

The one that just announced it was having success. I am choking back the laughter at these clowns. A used car salesman Trump and his fellows. 

This clown is now saying he will offload his options. Mission accomplished.

Whilst not an anti vaccine person and awaiting a safe and well tested CV19 one, I would rather let all 330 million Americans be crash test dummies for some time prior to using this one.

It is after all only a game to Trump and his fellows. Human cost is an aside at the country club.

Next step in Trumps plan is to dumb down the numbers. Already in action as CDC is being told only to report those with CV19 and green hair to be counted in any reports.

Thankfully outside USA 199 nations are working together.


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## rederob (19 May 2020)

My Irish friend laughs when Kiwis say "_six_" and they laugh when he says it's "_a terd_."




Was he talking about the Us President, or the number of global deaths under his watch?


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## kahuna1 (20 May 2020)

This is absurd.

USA is reporting about 23,000 Convid19 new cases a day.

Canada and UK are having about 50% that rate per million population.

Germany and Italy are having about 10% that rate per million population.

Australia and New Zealand are reporting 1% of the USA rate of infections.

EU and Aus and NZ locked down for double the time.

USA is opening up with on the main less restrictions than every other nation,
with 10 times more infections being identified each day verses EU.

Yesterday USA announced some vaccine showed promise. It may or may not work, about 5% of stage one trails make it to being approved. At the same time President DR Trump announced he was taking a dangerous drug for malaria which has now being scientifically tested in 5 studies with diabolical results.

That USA recently announced another drug worked, which again has massive and extreme side effects, yet half the approval board was either in the employ of the drug company or had been. This new Vaccine, so far only a director of the company now resigned is running the USA government development program for Covid19 vaccine. No conflict of interest seen at all !!!

Are we to believe this new vaccines results are real ? The last drug, an anti viral has NOT released the full study a even month latter. What was released, was not a control group study, it was not blind tested and serious side effects were removed from results just to name a few things. It was even OPEN LABEL making it more of a joke. Oh and the trial was run under the drug companies supervision. Nothing like cherry picking who is included. A total farce !!

Is this new vaccine one with promise ? When the President of the USA is actually promoting a dangerous drug proven to be fatal ? Is it bleach or some other insane cure ?

Of course the narrative is go back to work USA, its safe. The vaccine company did say possibly by January 2021 they MAY have a vaccine.

That is at best, maybe … possibly … 5% chance given past 2000 odd clinical trials that get approved from stage 1 and the USA thinks its safe ?

We have NO idea right now how long these antibodies even last. NONE. About 4 weeks is the longest measured time so far.

Too hard to work out what is hot air and reality.

Meanwhile, USA locked down for half the time will send its workers back. Some states encourage people to report people NOT going back to their jobs.

This with 10 times more infected people being identified than Germany and Italy ?

100 times more than Australia and NZ ?

And maybe, maybe in 8 months 10 days, so 255 days, MAYBE there is a vaccine which will take months to deploy at best.

What happens in those 255 days, if not quite a bit longer, till a valid vaccine is found ?

Germany and EU nations are being ultra cautious as they open back up as is Australia and NZ. Will America get more or less infections post this date than Germany or Italy adjusted for population ?

Does American leadership even care ? Clearly via action not at all !!

Whilst its irrelevant for now if this vaccine works eventually, we likely face 8 plus more months of extreme social distancing for those outside Australia and NZ. How far does the USA go from 90,000 deaths reported in the meantime ?

I suspect in years to come this period will be studied by historians and others with complete disbelief at the reality here, now, today USA time 18th May 2020.

Whilst positive the Moderna results, that they produced antibodies in animal testing already was known. Hardly a big thing that the same occurs in human apes as opposed to tests the already did on monkeys.

Second there are 100 or so vaccines under investigation, of which 8 outside China and 4 inside are in stage one trials. OF them including Moderna around 5 show promise. Two of them are Chinese.

Stage one trials are to make sure the vaccine does not kill people or cause massive side effects. This Moderna trial was on 8 people.

OF stage one trials, only 5% make it to a vaccine or drug being approved. Possibly this number will be higher, but its unlikely. Reason being, is that in stage 2,3 trails many are found to show promise initially, but fail when tested more widely.

A vaccine that kills 1 person in 500 is not an effective vaccine. At this stage we have no idea if the antibodies supposedly shown actually protect against infection. Again a crucial question. Does it work on elderly people and if so how well ? Vaccines tend to not be as effective, ever, on elderly people.

The list of questions yet to be answered is massive. Whilst yes, getting antibodies is a positive, its virtually meaningless at this stage. As 2020 progresses its likely of the 100 vaccines under development we see likely half of them enter clinical trials. I DO remain positive about a vaccine being found over time, but, relaxing and rejoining in the meantime for a very infected nation is idiotic. Virus is holding it own party for the imbeciles.

One hand one must have hope there is a vaccine yet to be found that will work. Realistically an at best time frame is not January 2021 but mid 2021 for a meaningful deployment and vaccination of people to be making any impact.

Think about that, think about a person touting an already proven to be dangerous Malaria drug in charge of anything to do with a vaccine being developed. Are you kidding ?

If your reading this from a high infection nation where the virus is very active and widespread, social distance. Wear a bloody mask. Even entering a lift with 7 people in it when infection rates are 100 times our own is a game of Russian roulette.

That a vaccine MAY or may not be ready by January 2021 makes no difference if you get this virus prior to that date or more likely a July 1st 2021 realistic time for the vaccine being seriously deployed.

Lastly, yet again, people getting reinfected remains a thing that cannot be ignored. There are over 1,000 cases so far. One can pretend of course, however its becoming clear this question needs to be fully resolved. So too how long antibodies last after it. Again on the latter its appearing more encouraging, however people who get infected again or get sick again and again, is contradicting this. Did they get false negative tests when still actively infected ? Is it dead virus being shed, which cannot be the case for some who fall seriously ill weeks and now months after being released.

Too much delusional rubbish. Economic impacts on world economies are to be ignored in favour of a President who is promoting taking bleach ?

Denial, political BS … or being told something is irrelevant or incorrect whilst likely 200,000 more Americans die between now and the vaccine is sadly clear.

That's close to 300,000 dead Americans by end of January 2021 at best.Add to that around double that number with extreme long term damage to organs and lungs from the virus.

Will they elect someone who managed to test a total of 121 Americans by 1st March 2020 ?

On 5th March 2,188 tests for 330 million Americans is good ?

Or 8,332 tested by 10th March for 330 million people ?

Even by 15th March 2020 a mere 39,448- tests for 330 million people is and will always be pathetic.

One cannot write what one hopes for about President of the USA and touted magic cures along with self medication when the above numbers, and current actions, will likely KILL 300,000 Americans. About 250,000 MORE than would have occurred if they acted like German or NZ or Australia.

Pathetic whilst congratulating themselves every step of the way. Attacking and blaming everyone else, other nations, other parties, even officials he appointed. What does Hillary Clinton or Obama have to do with the virus ? Or a long list of others he attacks.

America has a real chance of dissolving prior to a vaccine being developed. People and its people, now worthless serfs do actually matter. They have worth. Since your not wearing a sign around your neck when infected, I would be concerned if I was one of those elites or imbeciles. No guns needed, just go to a protest march to liberate people and cough. Burger Mr President ?

Back when USA hit 125,000 deaths which is on or around June 26th 2020.



The rest, I cant watch any longer. I would wish it went away magically, like a child, reality and scientists tell a very sobering and clinically backed assured outcome for 2020. Is it time for another tantrum ? That works for many.


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## joeno (21 May 2020)

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Operation_Sea-Spray

If rumours are true then this is not the first time the US government has used biological weapons on their own people, then lied and tried to cover it up.

"Between 1949 and 1969 open-air tests of biological agents were conducted 239 times."

"On October 11, 1950, eleven residents checked into Stanford Hospital for very rare, serious urinary tract infections. Although ten residents recovered, one patient, Edward J. Nevin, died three weeks later."


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## rederob (21 May 2020)

Here's what the USA does when government employees don't manipulate data.
As @kahuna1 has pointed out above, the USA is desperately trying to make it's numbers less alarming, and as Fauci has learned, honesty is not the best policy if your want to keep doing your job.

Meanwhile, Trump chose to heap blame on the WHO in the midst of the World Health Assembly's meeting, which had COV19 as a principle theme.  Not content with mere words, Trump is threatening to pull funding from the WHO.

It has been tragic for almost 100000 Americans that Trump has refused sound advice for so long.  However, a large slab of America's population continue to back this poor excuse for a national leader, so another 100000 dead probably will continue to be water of a duck's back.


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## rederob (22 May 2020)

Trump refuses to wear a mask, and today broke Michigan State law during a visit to an auto plant.
It's actually a clever ploy to divert attention away from his main game, which is to let businesses get away with corporate and environmental murder, while separately ensuring he and his cronies cannot be investigated.

One good bit of good news from the World Health Assembly this week was that all nations will have their response to the COV19 pandemic evaluated.  And as the USA supported this action, they will have no basis for sidestepping those conclusions which are highly likely to show how poorly the USA performed.


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## SirRumpole (29 May 2020)

The start of the breakdown of U.S. society ?

https://www.abc.net.au/news/2020-05...protests-scorch-city-police-precinct/12299136


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## wayneL (29 May 2020)

SirRumpole said:


> The start of the breakdown of U.S. society ?
> 
> https://www.abc.net.au/news/2020-05...protests-scorch-city-police-precinct/12299136



I think this is a real worry for the US, Horace. And the fear is that it could spill over into other Western countries, including us.


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## basilio (29 May 2020)

SirRumpole said:


> The start of the breakdown of U.S. society ?
> 
> https://www.abc.net.au/news/2020-05...protests-scorch-city-police-precinct/12299136




Perhaps.

But I think the real petrol on the fire that will torch the US will come from good old Aussies.
The Chaser have posted a purler of tweet that should create some creative copies from a million other people.

“Social media should not fact check posts” says child molester Mark Zuckerberg 




Facebook CEO Mark Zuckerberg has today hit out at Twitter owner Jack Dorsey following blowback from the White House on twitter’s plans to factcheck tweets. “Social media companies should not be acting as factcheckers and arbiters of the truth,” announced Zuckerberg this afternoon, “also by the way I like to spread peanut butter on the wall and lick it off while naked.”

The billionaire social media mogul, who spends his free time taking candy from children, instead suggested that social media companies should allow all speech on their platforms, and only intervene if there was a threat of imminent harm to someone’s life, like the woman he keeps chained in his basement.

“On the other hand, I just really like the taste of goat urine,” explained Zuckerberg thoughtfully, “can’t get enough.”

https://chaser.com.au/world/social-...ck-posts-says-child-molester-mark-zuckerberg/


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## basilio (29 May 2020)

https://www.theguardian.com/technol...zuckerbergs-position-on-facebook-factchecking


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## Knobby22 (29 May 2020)

SirRumpole said:


> The start of the breakdown of U.S. society ?
> 
> https://www.abc.net.au/news/2020-05...protests-scorch-city-police-precinct/12299136



The system is against them and it is meant to be for them. 
No employment protection,  expensive  healthcare, lowest lifetimes in the West, no decent action with covad 19, cops are not acting for them. The social contract is broken.

So lucky to live in a country that cares about it's citizens.

Only a matter of time before Trump or someone in the future calls in the troops and sooner or later, they will fire into the crowd,cameras will be located on every corner with face recognition and all the rich will live in gated communities.

They need a decent President.


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## qldfrog (29 May 2020)

A


Knobby22 said:


> The system is against them and it is meant to be for them.
> No employment protection,  expensive  healthcare, lowest lifetimes in the West, no decent action with covad 19, cops are not acting for them. The social contract is broken.
> 
> So lucky to live in a country that cares about it's citizens.
> ...



The president is the least of their concern, they need the end of the deep state, a renewal of all parties and a proper capitalistic system back, not the current corrupt one.
Once you can not go ahead and get rich starting from nothing,the US spirit is dead.democrats want to switch to the European model,state control of everything while the Republicans want the status quo.. big business outsourcing migration
Both are against the people...black would not be rioting in the streets just after 2 Obama presidencies..or was it 3..if a President could make a difference


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## Garpal Gumnut (29 May 2020)

qldfrog said:


> A
> 
> The president is the least of their concern, they need the end of the deep state, a renewal of all parties and a proper capitalistic system back, not the current corrupt one.
> Once you can not go ahead and get rich starting from nothing,the US spirit is dead.democrats want to switch to the European model,state control of everything while the Republicans want the status quo.. big business outsourcing migration
> Both are against the people...black would not be rioting in the streets just after 2 Obama presidencies..or was it 3..if a President could make a difference



The President is a bit like the Queen in Britain. 

The USA has a choice between a psychopath who paints his skin and hair tangerine, and a guy with Alzheimers who I wouldn't send to the corner shop for a pack of cigarettes.

So as a figurehead and a pusher of the economy they are stuffed imo.

gg


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## jbocker (30 May 2020)

It is almost like the USA is imploding.
Like its about to collapse upon itself and is going through a near end frenzy.
Needs to simmer down (fall over) and take stock of itself.
God know who will lead them out.

I better turn off the TV and listen to something a little more soothing, ..like heavy metal.


----------



## Garpal Gumnut (30 May 2020)

jbocker said:


> It is almost like the USA is imploding.
> Like its about to collapse upon itself and is going through a near end frenzy.
> Needs to simmer down (fall over) and take stock of itself.
> God know who will lead them out.
> ...



Oh for some Black Sabbath.

gg


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## Smurf1976 (30 May 2020)

jbocker said:


> I better turn off the TV and listen to something a little more soothing, ..



I've posted something suitable in the music thread....... 

https://www.aussiestockforums.com/threads/music-what-are-asf-members-listening-to.2569/page-297


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## SirRumpole (30 May 2020)

wayneL said:


> I think this is a real worry for the US, Horace. And the fear is that it could spill over into other Western countries, including us.




I think we might be too complacent for that sort of thing wayne.


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## Humid (30 May 2020)

Garpal Gumnut said:


> Oh for some Black Sabbath.
> 
> gg




I’m thinking more Rage against the machine.....language warning


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## wayneL (30 May 2020)

Jeez things are getting interesting. Riots in several cities now including DC, White House in lockdown.

I've had a feeling social order would break down, but a catalyst comes out of left field... Analogous to the US economy just looking for an excuse to go into the tank, covid supplying the cover.


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## qldfrog (30 May 2020)

wayneL said:


> Analogous to the US economy just looking for an excuse to go into the tank, covid supplying the cover.



indeed COVID the pretext, saw some footage of the reports, a lot of I suppose left wings white people in the riot, the culture of reciprocate hate between left right there is coming to its ultimate end: bloody fight
And the economies will follow .COVID a distraction, in no way a cause.The biggest scam in our history, surpassing the global warming most extreme claims.


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## ducati916 (30 May 2020)

This has been the subject of study:

https://www.nature.com/news/human-cycles-history-as-science-1.11078




jog on
duc


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## Knobby22 (30 May 2020)

Martin Luther: " A riot is the language of the unheard"

This is common to history, Les Miserables all over again.
25% unemployment, food queues, no treatment if you get the virus,

......the rich and powerful ensuring the ordinary people are left to suffer with little help but getting plenty of government support themselves.

Trump has sent in the army, a weak leader in the wrong place at the wrong time.


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## fiftyeight (30 May 2020)

I watched this doco on the Voyager probes recently, the USA really did achieve some amazing things.

https://www.imdb.com/title/tt6223974/

I am finding it increasingly hard to believe that the USA is a superpower, they look more and more like a failing superpower every day.

"Nothing can stop America when you get right down to it. Never bet against America", Buffet may be suffering some recency bias here, empires fall.

I am also finding it hard to be objective whenever Trump is involved. It boggles my mind that idiot is President. Good chance I am just stuck in my own little bubble, I make the token effort to follow a few people I disagree with on Twitter but that is definitely not representative sample of MAGA fans. BUT for the first time in a long time I get the feeling he is on the way out, or it is my bias, who knows anymore.

My simple theory goes;

I assume there were a few people fed up with the 'system' and voted for Trump as a FU vote or a 'lets see what would happen' vote. There were a few closet Trump supporters, I know some. Surrrrrrrrely he has lost a large portion of these voters.

I would also assume not many voters are looking at his presidency and thinking, wow this is going well, I didn't vote for Trump last time but I will this time. So limited new voters.

Ben Shaprio and others from that side of Twitter land have started calling Trump out.

There are A LOT more people now out of work, it is hard to see that changing even if the stock market goes to the moon.

Now he is also picking a fight with social media, that does not seem like a good idea.

On the flip side the electoral college system still exits, and Biden. How the Democrats could nominate Biden boggles the mind.

Ladbrokes has the election at roughly even money, not quite enough for me to have a punt.


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## rederob (30 May 2020)

Yet another sign that the USA has totally lost the plot.
By thinking it can continue to act alone in a globally interconnected world is madness on a presidential scale.


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## Smurf1976 (30 May 2020)

fiftyeight said:


> I assume there were a few people fed up with the 'system' and voted for Trump as a FU vote or a 'lets see what would happen' vote. There were a few closet Trump supporters, I know some.



Everyone I know personally who's said positive things about Trump has said the same.

His good point is calling out the BS that is globalisation. There's no such thing as a level playing field and it's time to stop fooling ourselves that a race to the bottom is going to benefit anyone other than those right at the top of the economic pile. 

His bad points are every aspect of the man personally. He's an extreme narcissist and compulsive liar who's not fit to be President.

But in the absence of the Democrats doing something to rein in globalisation, Trump is still plausibly the better choice despite his major flaws.


----------



## Garpal Gumnut (30 May 2020)

Smurf1976 said:


> Everyone I know personally who's said positive things about Trump has said the same.
> 
> His good point is calling out the BS that is globalisation. There's no such thing as a level playing field and it's time to stop fooling ourselves that a race to the bottom is going to benefit anyone other than those right at the top of the economic pile.
> 
> ...



Unless the coronavirus takes both Trump and Biden.

gg


----------



## qldfrog (30 May 2020)

Smurf1976 said:


> Everyone I know personally who's said positive things about Trump has said the same.
> 
> His good point is calling out the BS that is globalisation. There's no such thing as a level playing field and it's time to stop fooling ourselves that a race to the bottom is going to benefit anyone other than those right at the top of the economic pile.
> 
> ...



You are going to be crucified:
how dare you 
...I just read in the Guardian/watched on ABC/CNN, etc etc


----------



## qldfrog (30 May 2020)

Would that happen in that failed state of the US?
https://www.brisbanetimes.com.au/na...-suspended-for-two-years-20200529-p54xv8.html
Before criticizing others, we should sort our own ****;  the real question is : was our red rob involved :-(
And how much has the CCP paid these low lives who did that decision


----------



## Smurf1976 (30 May 2020)

Garpal Gumnut said:


> Unless the coronavirus takes both Trump and Biden.



No offence to anyone but I do find it ridiculous that the choice is one old man versus another old man.

Surely they could find someone younger who's got a real reason to focus on the future given they'll be part of it.


----------



## Knobby22 (30 May 2020)

Smurf1976 said:


> Everyone I know personally who's said positive things about Trump has said the same.
> 
> His good point is calling out the BS that is globalisation. There's no such thing as a level playing field and it's time to stop fooling ourselves that a race to the bottom is going to benefit anyone other than those right at the top of the economic pile.
> 
> ...



Come on Smurf, he is an incompetent. Debt rising massively, China deal not working, China aren't even buying half the stuff off the USA that they said they would. 

Not to mention his mishandling of the coronavirus and throwing petrol on the riots with his continuous dumb commentary. 

Imagine what Ronald Reagan would say if he was still around. Republicans should find someone better.


----------



## SirRumpole (30 May 2020)

Smurf1976 said:


> No offence to anyone but I do find it ridiculous that the choice is one old man versus another old man.
> 
> Surely they could find someone younger who's got a real reason to focus on the future given they'll be part of it.




Find a young person with plenty of money who knows what makes the US tick and is in touch with the masses ? A tough task. I think the US is so polarised you either get a Trump or a Sanders with little in between.

I have to disagree with you (which I rarely do), that Trump is a better bet than Biden. Trump (or at least his supporters) is tearing US society apart, they badly need some oil on the troubled waters.


----------



## Smurf1976 (30 May 2020)

Knobby22 said:


> Come on Smurf, he is an incompetent.



No argument there.

A big problem throughout the West in my view is that there seems to have been an overall peak in the 1980's and 90's, a time of incredible optimism and a generally upbeat view of the future, which reflects in everything from politics to pop culture.

Comparing 2020 with the 1980's or 90's, we've gone from politics with a serious vision of a better future and a population willing to bear some pain now in order to make tomorrow happen to a situation where the focus is no more than weeks or even just days ahead and nobody's willing to incur even the slightest burden to improve things.

Popular culture is much the same. 1980's and 90's music and movies are a far, far bigger thing today than ~35 year old stuff was back in the 80's - 90's when the focus was very much on the here and now and looking to the future not the past.

Going forward we need to sort out the issues of sustainability in terms of resources and the environment. We need to sort out the reality that there ain't no level playing field when it comes to production and trade and likely never will be. We need to fix the hollowing out of the middle class and so on. That requires vision and a willingness to incur the pain of moving forward.

Australia has a similar problem but with a time lag. Labor struggles to accept that it's time to tear down much of the Keating legacy and the Coalition likewise struggles to rip down things from the Howard era. Those were a long time ago now though and it's time to tear down and replace all that either didn't work or has lost relevance. Nothing lasts forever.

What's needed throughout the West is some vision to move forward rather than being rusted onto a set of political ideals that were relevant a generation ago but which have well and truly passed their use-by date. Stick with music and movies if you want retro, you can play Bruce Springsteen or Rick Astley all day and night if you want and it won't do any harm, but we need to be looking to the future when it comes to politics.


----------



## Humid (30 May 2020)

SirRumpole said:


> Find a young person with plenty of money who knows what makes the US tick and is in touch with the masses ? A tough task. I think the US is so polarised you either get a Trump or a Sanders with little in between.
> 
> I have to disagree with you (which I rarely do), that Trump is a better bet than Biden. Trump (or at least his supporters) is tearing US society apart, they badly need some oil on the troubled waters.




That young person voted Trump


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## Smurf1976 (30 May 2020)

SirRumpole said:


> I have to disagree with you (which I rarely do), that Trump is a better bet than Biden. Trump (or at least his supporters) is tearing US society apart, they badly need some oil on the troubled waters.



I do agree that Trump, as a man and as President, is terrible.

I say that having had some dealings personally with someone of remarkably similar character. I won't name names, though to avoid any inferences I'll clarify that they are in no way involved in the power industry, but the similarities were quite striking. That experience in mind, I see through Trump's BS indeed some of it's literally word for word the same thing I've seen from someone else. In ot

The ultimate effect of Trump is to remove competence and I mean that literally. Anyone competent has been or will be sacked, silenced or otherwise taken out of the picture. That's what bullies do.

The result inevitably will be a serious blunder and by that I mean a catastrophic one. You can't remove everyone competent and not end up with a disaster at some point. The details of it though are anyone's guess and it may only be apparent in hindsight (is it unfolding right now?).

Sticking with the music theme that jbocker started though, well I'll liken Trump to someone who can't sing, can't play any instruments, is no good at interviews and he's even worse at dancing. A failure in every way except that he's written one good song which, if someone else were to perform it, would go straight to number 1 and stay there for a very long time.

Trump's attack on the race to the bottom is his sole redeeming feature in my view. It's the good lyrics which stand out - we just need a competent singer and musicians to perform it.


----------



## SirRumpole (31 May 2020)

Smurf1976 said:


> Trump's attack on the race to the bottom is his sole redeeming feature in my view. It's the good lyrics which stand out - we just need a competent singer and musicians to perform it




I certainly agree there. Highlighting reliance on China and other low wage countries is his only redeeming feature, as the current pandemic demonstrates. I haven't heard Biden's foreign relations policy if he has one so I can't comment on what his attitude towards China might be.

Seeing Australia's politicians continually cow towing to the PRC is pretty morale sapping. Hopefully they will see the light in that if you have unreliable customers who pay high prices one minute to suck you in, but then chop you off at the knees the next then that's not as good as a consistent but possibly less high paying market (the local Australian market perhaps).

Australia's management of the PRC relationship needs to be careful, given that were are not a global superpower in either trade or military, but in the long term it means gradually easing ourselves out of their grip towards other markets who trade commercially not politically, and it also means providing for our own needs first wherever possible. 

I'm not sure we have the politicians to do this at the moment. People say Morrison is a pragmatist, I hope they are right.


----------



## Smurf1976 (31 May 2020)

SirRumpole said:


> Highlighting reliance on China and other low wage countries is his only redeeming feature, as the current pandemic demonstrates. I haven't heard Biden's foreign relations policy if he has one so I can't comment on what his attitude towards China might be.




If shop A is terribly run by an arrogant fool who yells and screams whilst overcharging me and shop B is run by a polite and intelligent person who chats pleasantly whilst serving customers then at face value anyone would choose shop B.

Where the problem arises is if shop B isn't selling what they want to buy, in which case your choice is either finding some way to substitute ice cream for washing detergent, or going to shop A and putting up with the BS.

I despise Trump's personality, the bullying and all the rest but on the other hand I can understand the appeal. He seems to be the only one selling what many want to buy.


----------



## qldfrog (31 May 2020)

Smurf1976 said:


> I despise Trump's personality, the bullying and all the rest but on the other hand I can understand the appeal. He seems to be the only one selling what many want to buy



I believe this is the issue, the opposition is mimicking the media and sadly many here, if it is Trump it is bad...well by now, they should have learnt that Trump plays by rudely saying obvious common sense first level truth or semi truth.
That can only attract people who are realists or experience these in the first place.
Yet the systematic opposition and twisted media layer on top make the counter offer as ridiculous.
Trump launches a trade war against China he is blamed..well using another bully to fight a bully seeing the results of previous administrations, is maybe the way to go.
Bring this to the current murder of that guy by a policeman, if i go and tell his local community that blacks are less likely to be killed than whites by police, a truth as per stats posted before, will they believe me? No i will be lynched.as their experience is different
So when democrats tells rightly or wrongly that globalisation or emigration is good to someone whose job has been delocalised and daughter raped by a latino gang member, how do you think it goes?
So both democrats and Republicans have to stop BS .and this is true at home otherwise we will end with national socialism and then Trump will have been the least of our worries


----------



## rederob (31 May 2020)

qldfrog said:


> Bring this to the current murder of that guy by a policeman, if i go and tell his local community that blacks are less likely to be killed than whites by police, a truth as per stats posted before, will they believe me? No i will be lynched.as their experience is different



Again, you do not understand statistics.
Even if blacks are 3 times more likely to be involved in criminal activity, they are still twice as likely to be shot by police.
The other basic statistic relates to unarmed American blacks being just as likely to be killed by police in raw data terms despite representing just one in eight of the population.
You must think that Americans don't understand these basic facts!
America is literally burning in front of our eyes because many feel strongly about this continuing injustice.
I won't bother commenting on your other points as they are as poorly founded as your ability to use data.


----------



## Knobby22 (31 May 2020)

Saw a stat today. If you are black you are 2.5 times more likely to die from coronavirus than the rest of the population.
I suspect this is due to relative poverty meaning self isolation is difficult, poor quality food and lack of access to health care.


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## qldfrog (31 May 2020)

Knobby22 said:


> Saw a stat today. If you are black you are 2.5 times more likely to die from coronavirus than the rest of the population.
> I suspect this is due to relative poverty meaning self isolation is difficult, poor quality food and lack of access to health care.



And terrain of poor health due to poverty.for anyone who has been to the US in the last 30y, it is clear that the black population has paid a heavy price to Latin America immigration
New york in the 1990 had a strong black working class in services: restaurant, cleaners etc.
It was shockingly absent from my last visit there 2y ago, all these positions filled by latinos.. Sadly it did not work as the escalator model used to...and the black community, as a whole did not lift itself up, just got pushed aside by the latest immigrant wave.
This is in NE USA, elsewhere it is ever worst


----------



## jbocker (31 May 2020)

Knobby22 said:


> Saw a stat today. If you are black you are 2.5 times more likely to die from coronavirus than the rest of the population.
> I suspect this is due to relative poverty meaning self isolation is difficult, poor quality food and lack of access to health care.



I recall seeing that early in New York stats.
In Australia I understand the Aborigines in the past have suffered VERY poorly from colds/flus particularly in our early history. There are very likely some inherent susceptibility to coronaviruses generally, similarly to the aged. Poor health support and access without doubt contributes immensely.
Thankfully McGowan in WA was very quick to protect our aboriginal communities and regions. And for good reason has made the Kimberley region the last to have internal 'border' restrictions removed.


----------



## rederob (31 May 2020)

Knobby22 said:


> Saw a stat today. If you are black you are 2.5 times more likely to die from coronavirus than the rest of the population.
> I suspect this is due to relative poverty meaning self isolation is difficult, poor quality food and lack of access to health care.



That does not square with official data - it's nowhere near that high on a whole of nation basis.
Both whites and blacks have a greater pro rata share of deaths.  Asians and Latinos have substantially lower pro rata death rates.


----------



## wayneL (4 June 2020)

Interesting stats right here, it's not making the case that the US is a failed or rogue state, just thought it was an interesting place to post this.


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## macca (4 June 2020)

wayneL said:


> Interesting stats right here, it's not making the case that the US is a failed or rogue state, just thought it was an interesting place to post this.





I am surprised China is not on there, the wealthy elite in China would blitz the average income of their subsistence farmers of which there are millions


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## wayneL (4 June 2020)

macca said:


> I am surprised China is not on there, the wealthy elite in China would blitz the average income of their subsistence farmers of which there are millions



Here's the figures I found
China median 20,942  mean 58,544
Hong Kong median 146,887 mean 489,258

What would be an interesting stat would be the mean of the top 1 or 2%... Or even 5% of the countries mentioned


----------



## Bill M (6 June 2020)

Who are these people? No ID, no one knows.

*Unidentified, Armed Federal Troops Raise Accountability Concerns *


----------



## Bill M (6 June 2020)

*Police chief to Trump: Please, keep your mouth shut if you can't be constructive*


----------



## rederob (6 June 2020)

Bill M said:


> Who are these people? No ID, no one knows.



They were unemployed last week and the government has not had time to issue them with their identification - trust me:


----------



## rederob (20 June 2020)

The idea that you can open a country to business before you have a major disease under control is not sound, but what would America know?
According to the John Hopkins website data on new COV19 infections, yesterday's number was the highest since May 7, and the present trend is again rising.
That's what you get when you put money ahead of people, and throw common sense to the wind.


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## spooly74 (20 June 2020)

Bill M said:


> Who are these people? No ID, no one knows.
> 
> *Unidentified, Armed Federal Troops Raise Accountability Concerns *





Probably an agency from the bolded list below.



> While the Democrats and the media anticipated getting the optics they so desperately craved—of Trump sending in soldiers with bayonets fixed, charging at the “peaceful protesters”—what they got instead was the sudden appearance of a bunch of *federal tactical units from the FBI, the Secret Service, the Drug Enforcement Administration, the Bureau of Alcohol, Tobacco, Firearms and Explosives, the U.S. Marshals Service, the Bureau of Prisons, and other agencies, in full gear,* many with no rifles, and certainly no bayonets.




https://www.theepochtimes.com/trump-and-barr-fooled-them-all_3386565.html#


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## rederob (21 June 2020)

John Hopkins website data on new COV19 infections has the USA back to where it was 10 weeks ago - ie. over 30000 daily infections.
The difference then was that the USA had got the message about infection rates and States were taking COV19 seriously.
Not so now.
Anyone watching Trump's Tulsa rally which concluded in the past hour will have realised that his *actual *message to supporters for months (ie. do as I do) was that wearing a face mask was not such a good idea.   Prior to the rally infectious disease modellers worked out that the likely COV19 spread number would be around 500-1000 depending on how many took reasonable precautions.  They would then add to subsequent community transmissions.  It will be interesting to see the outcome of his Tulsa rally - modelling and reality have been poles apart to date.
An aspect of modelling that is about right is that "lockdowns" are an essential strategy for beating the virus, and this is evidenced in all countries where rates have substantially declined. However, unless there is a medical marvel intervention, the USA is now on track for 250000 COV19 deaths.
It is the pinnacle of hypocrisy that any president could continue to claim "great  success" so regularly, yet be shown up by the data to be achieving the very opposite.
The longer Trump remains in power the quicker its status declines as a democracy that other nations would choose to emulate.


----------



## Bill M (23 June 2020)

OMG, so much hate in the USA.


----------



## Knobby22 (23 June 2020)

The only black Nascar racer found a noose in his shed yesterday. KKK like the lovely lady above are still around.


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## wayneL (23 June 2020)

Knobby22 said:


> The only black Nascar racer found a noose in his shed yesterday. KKK like the lovely lady above are still around.



Yep, as are the likes of Louis Farrakhan and other anti-white racists.

Let's denounce all anti whatever racists shall we?


----------



## spooly74 (23 June 2020)

Knobby22 said:


> The only black Nascar racer found a noose in his shed yesterday. KKK like the lovely lady above are still around.



This looks like Jussie Smollett v.2
where the demand for racism is outstripping supply.


----------



## satanoperca (23 June 2020)

WHERE IS KAhUNA?

Hope he/she is available to comment/post on the thread they created.


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## rederob (27 June 2020)

Trump has recently signed off on a few Executive Orders that pander to his base.
He's also trying to get rid of Obamacare through the courts, at a time when the nation has experienced 2.5 million positive COV19 cases and almost 130,000 deaths.
To show how detached from reality the USA now is, listen to Vice President Pence spin the virtues of his response to COV19:
Friday's positive cases totalled 45,300 which is some 9,000 more than the highest daily figure in either April or May.


----------



## wayneL (27 June 2020)

satanoperca said:


> WHERE IS KAhUNA?
> 
> Hope he/she is available to comment/post on the thread they created.



I don't think the site has enough bandwidth


----------



## Bill M (27 June 2020)




----------



## qldfrog (28 June 2020)

spooly74 said:


> This looks like Jussie Smollett v.2
> where the demand for racism is outstripping supply.




I think ropes are racist and should be banned.
Next week we will tackle chains,another example of chauvinism white male oppression


----------



## Knobby22 (28 June 2020)

Gotta comment. I don't think tweets cut it, pictures will help the story.

Here is a picture of Bubba Wallaces's garage. The guy is the only black racer in Nascar and if you ever see a picture of him he is probably only 1/4 black. Anyway he said something bad about the conferderate flag which got a few rednecks upset.

It's obviously a misunderstanding. Nooses are in everyone's car sheds in this area and he should be proud that someone has secretly taken the time to put one outside his ready for use. It shows he has been accepted into the fraternity.Become one of the good old boys. Bluddy left wingers. Bubba didn't whinge, he understands perfectly.


----------



## Sdajii (28 June 2020)

Knobby22 said:


> Gotta comment. I don't think tweets cut it, pictures will help the story.
> 
> Here is a picture of Bubba Wallaces's garage. The guy is the only black racer in Nascar and if you ever see a picture of him he is probably only 1/4 black. Anyway he said something bad about the conferderate flag which got a few rednecks upset.
> 
> It's obviously a misunderstanding. Nooses are in everyone's car sheds in this area and he should be proud that someone has secretly taken the time to put one outside his ready for use. It shows he has been accepted into the fraternity.Become one of the good old boys. Bluddy left wingers. Bubba didn't whinge, he understands perfectly.




You're late to the party and missed the bit about how that rope had been hanging there with the same knot since months before he was using that garage. Others had been using the garage before him and had taken pictures in their which showed it. It wasn't put there because of him, he came after it was there.

But hey, stick to the fictional narrative, it's the thing to do, right?


----------



## qldfrog (29 June 2020)

Without being as pointy as @Sdajii , i i believe it is a perfect case of let's find a way to get upset.it is a bloody rope and indeed seems to have plenty of proof has been there for ages..but let's ban rope and chain and white paint..already thinking of doing that for the white house 
It is easy to find matches with rising Nazi Germany..
The Jews then were too passive and ended slaughtered, maybe it is time to fight back as there is no limit to that type of hysteria.


----------



## Knobby22 (29 June 2020)

Sdajii said:


> You're late to the party and missed the bit about how that rope had been hanging there with the same knot since months before he was using that garage. Others had been using the garage before him and had taken pictures in their which showed it. It wasn't put there because of him, he came after it was there.
> 
> But hey, stick to the fictional narrative, it's the thing to do, right?



Ok, I will gladly admit I was wrong. Give me  some proof.


----------



## qldfrog (29 June 2020)

Knobby22 said:


> Ok, I will gladly admit I was wrong. Give me  some proof.



I think there was one in the Wayne post, and if i was interested by this nth crap raised i would look for it before making an opinion
I will gladly admit that there is so much biased crap now that i would gladly bypass actual acts of racism until there is a more balanced view..
That is the way extremism is created BTW.


----------



## Sdajii (29 June 2020)

Knobby22 said:


> Ok, I will gladly admit I was wrong. Give me  some proof.




It's all over the bleeding internet. The mainstream media of course publicised the 'OMG racism' story but when it was found to be complete nonsense they naturally didn't touch it. There was an FBI investigation, which was pretty straight forward since multiple people used the garage over a period of many months, several took pictures (not of the knot specifically, but it was there in the pictures) and it was an obvious open and shut case. Just google 'Bubba Wallaces garage knot' or anything similar and read something recent.


----------



## rederob (3 July 2020)

While political divides exist in most countries, the USA has created a fact divide that coexists within it.
This has been the case with Obama's "birther" claims and climate change:



Now it's also the case with COVID-19:


At time of writing the number of daily infections at 51.200 (John Hopkins as source) was over twice as high as the average daily number for May and June combined.  The clear trend shows an alarming rate of rising infection.  As a result, deaths in July are projected to increase throughout the month:





Fortunately the President expects this will "soon disappear."


----------



## Sdajii (3 July 2020)

rederob said:


> While political divides exist in most countries, the USA has created a fact divide that coexists within it.
> This has been the case with Obama's "birther" claims and climate change:
> 
> 
> ...




The left controls the majority of the mainstream media, the overwhelming share of entertainment media, social media, the education system, etc. Only a fool now fails to see that there is a lot of propaganda and crazy narratives mixed in with what we are force fed by these entities. Most people are very simple, they are not capable of independent thinking, even 'intelligent' people are typically more prone to going with the group than going against it even if they are capable of seeing that the group is wrong (plenty of psychological studies demonstrate this). So, with a system which is demonstrably dishonest, some people go along with it because it's the system which exists (the left) and some people reject the system, which tends to make them throw the baby out with the bath water. It's human nature, flawed as it is, to think that if someone or something is lying to you about some things (and if you can't see that the overall narrative of the left, which is the primary narrative thrown at people through school, media, entertainment, etc is littered with lies there's something wrong with you) you should reject everything they say. Your article here has cherry picked two of the two most emotive issues, climate change and the current pandemic, both of which have developed a huge amount of misinformation on all sides, with everyone thinking they are right and everyone else is imbecilic, and most people are correct about the second assertion there. 

The goal of your article seems to be to further polarise people; it starts with a vague assertion like 'contributes a great deal'. Well, depending on the context, that could be right or wrong, and there's little doubt the original question (which we have not even been shown here) was presented in a loaded way to produce the desired result of demonstration of polarisation. We're also not told how the sampling was done, just that it was based on an 11 point criteria, none of which we are given. How did they find these people? Given that this article is blatantly biased with an agenda of making Republicans look stupid, it's necessary to present this, otherwise it's no more meaningful than wandering around making one of those 'let's make our opposition looks stupid' videos which you can find no shortage of for both sides.

The issue of whether or not "the worst is now behind us" for the pandemic is also vague. How do you measure it? In human fatalities or economic damage or infringement of human freedom or overall wellbeing of people or the average death rate per day as opposed to the total death rate or the death rate per case (particularly relevant if this virus is with us indefinitely, which it probably is) or something else? You could easily concoct a set of criteria to make it true either way. This isn't really a genuine example of "fact divide". No one can say as a fact that the worst is ahead of or behind us, because it literally requires speculating about the future. If a medical miracle which cured all viruses was invented tomorrow, the worst would obviously be behind us (and the mainstream narrative is that we're locking down in wait of a vaccine, which is biologically extremely improbable, making their own assertions contradictory).

Basically this dichotomy is between people blindly believing everything they are told and unquestioningly going along with the mainstream herd, and those who see the lies and propaganda, are unable to differentiate between that and the facts, and reject the entire set of what they're being told. This article seeks to widen the divide, and it has always been the left seeking to produce and then increase this polarisation.

For the record I'm personally on the left of the political spectrum, but even so, I can see what's going on in this respect.


----------



## rederob (3 July 2020)

Sdajii said:


> The left controls the majority of the mainstream media, the overwhelming share of entertainment media, social media, the education system, etc.



Please provide your evidence.


Sdajii said:


> The goal of your article seems to be to further polarise people....



I presented polling data, and data from US government websites which are regarded as credible.


Sdajii said:


> Given that this article is blatantly biased with an agenda of making Republicans look stupid, it's necessary to present this, otherwise it's no more meaningful than wandering around making one of those 'let's make our opposition looks stupid' videos which you can find no shortage of for both sides.



Perhaps you could assimilate the evidence and draw a different conclusion from something you regard as credible.


Sdajii said:


> The issue of whether or not "the worst is now behind us" for the pandemic is also vague.



It seeks an opinion.  If you saw information that clearly showed a situation that was significantly worse than previously the case, and noted how comparable nations sat by comparison, then reaching an informed opinion on the question is not difficult.


Sdajii said:


> Basically this dichotomy is between people blindly believing everything they are told and unquestioningly going along with the mainstream herd, and those who see the lies and propaganda, are unable to differentiate between that and the facts, and reject the entire set of what they're being told.



It's about determining that despite there being information which is freely available and credible (ie. unambiguously verifiable), a large number people are able to disassociate from facts based on political stance.


----------



## basilio (3 July 2020)

rederob said:


> *It's about determining that despite there being information which is freely available and credible (ie. unambiguously verifiable), a large number people are able to disassociate from facts based on political stance*.




Well worth repeating. Crystallizes the argument.


----------



## wayneL (3 July 2020)

basilio said:


> Well worth repeating. Crystallizes the argument.



Indeed


----------



## Sdajii (3 July 2020)

rederob said:


> Please provide your evidence.




The fact that you ask for evidence for such an obvious thing shows how incredibly blinded you are. Your bias is demonstrated. You honestly are unaware that the left has the dominant control over such things? Honestly? Really?



> I presented polling data, and data from US government websites which are regarded as credible.




LOL. 'Are regarded as credible', self declared credibility in polling from the side which told us that their polls definitively indicated Trump couldn't possibly win. Even if you want to say the polls are unbiased, which they obviously aren't, the data is represented in a clearly polarising way.



> Perhaps you could assimilate the evidence and draw a different conclusion from something you regard as credible.




You're missing the point. 



> It seeks an opinion.  If you saw information that clearly showed a situation that was significantly worse than previously the case, and noted how comparable nations sat by comparison, then reaching an informed opinion on the question is not difficult.




So now even you call it an opinion, rather than a clear fact, which is the exact point I was making.



> It's about determining that despite there being information which is freely available and credible (ie. unambiguously verifiable), a large number people are able to disassociate from facts based on political stance.




That's what it's attempting to do, and obviously if you're willing to blindly believe and not keen on critical thinking you'll go along with it, but it has failed to do so. They're declaring that they've kicked a goal without even needing to move the goal posts because the goal posts weren't even placed anywhere to begin with. What are your measures of damage? I listed some possible measures before, they didn't give any, you still haven't, you've just vaguely said that since some tangible information exists, some people dissociate from it, without giving any specific examples. Even if you were to clearly define your question (which hasn't even been attempted here, it has been left vague, and any reasonable person can see that is deliberately so), such as saying "There will be more/fewer COVID-19 deaths in the future than there have been in the past", there is no factual answer, because the future is still yet to come, but in your example here, there isn't any clear way to define 'the worst'; it's deliberately vague to the point of being meaningless.

You speak like a dogmatic religious person; 'You must accept and affirm the narrative, you must be with us, or you are part of the heresy'. At least clearly definite your questions before promoting your side as righteous and the other side as imbeciles (noting that you shouldn't be looking at it as a dichotomy anyway, you should be looking at people as a spectrum, and what you are doing here encourages people to join or oppose you, which is exactly what is causing the polarisation).

Consider this; I am a qualified scientist, I am on the left side of the political spectrum, yet most people on the left would now consider me to be alt right, and people on the right tend to agree with or at least respect my political views. It's obvious who is causing the polarisation, it is those in the upper echelon putting out divisive nonsense like you have displayed here, knowing that people like you will dance to their beat.


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## rederob (3 July 2020)

Sdajii said:


> The fact that you ask for evidence for such an obvious thing shows how incredibly blinded you are. Your bias is demonstrated. You honestly are unaware that the left has the dominant control over such things? Honestly? Really?



Without evidence your comments lack merit.


Sdajii said:


> You're missing the point.



I gave you the clear opportunity to make your point.


Sdajii said:


> So now even you call it an opinion, rather than a clear fact, which is the exact point I was making.



I clearly said it was an "*informed opinion*."  Your doctor or lawyer only give their opinions, but they have reasonable foundation.


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## rederob (3 July 2020)

Sdajii said:


> That's what it's attempting to do, and obviously if you're willing to blindly believe and not keen on critical thinking you'll go along with it, but it has failed to do so.



Please elaborate.
If there are verifiable facts, what causes them to be disregarded?


Sdajii said:


> ... what you are doing here encourages people to join or oppose you, which is exactly what is causing the polarisation.



I provided information.
I have shown that despite information having a substantive basis many people choose not to accept its legitimacy.
Truth and untruth are polar opposites, so nothing is being "encouraged." 


Sdajii said:


> Consider this; I am a qualified scientist, I am on the left side of the political spectrum, yet most people on the left would now consider me to be alt right, and people on the right tend to agree with or at least respect my political views.



I have commented on your understanding of science in other threads, and whether you are of any "leaning" does not change valid scientific data.


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## SirRumpole (27 July 2020)

A mathematical model predicts possible Civil War in the US.

https://www.abc.net.au/triplej/prog...tes-disorder-now-points-to-civil-war/12365280


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## wayneL (27 July 2020)

SirRumpole said:


> A mathematical model predicts possible Civil War in the US.
> 
> https://www.abc.net.au/triplej/prog...tes-disorder-now-points-to-civil-war/12365280



A cycle analyst I follow has predicted the same thing.... Interestingly, the prediction was in 2010, that 2020-21 was a time of likely civil unrest.

And I agree, I don't think civil war is too far of a stretch.


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## IFocus (27 July 2020)

What was that book? The 4th turning.


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## basilio (27 July 2020)

SirRumpole said:


> A mathematical model predicts possible Civil War in the US.
> 
> https://www.abc.net.au/triplej/prog...tes-disorder-now-points-to-civil-war/12365280




I suggest its a bit more than a mathematical model. The analysis is astute and makes for uncomfortable reading.

One of the issues it raises is the impact  this  would have on the world economy.

I don't think the title "civil war" makes sense here. I can't see how the States would split into  two opposing groups .  However fractures across the society are deep and dangerous.

_Professor Goldstone predicts the real problems will begin after July 31, when Americans' $600 a week COVID-19 unemployment welfare expires._


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## SirRumpole (27 July 2020)

basilio said:


> I don't think the title "civil war" makes sense here. I can't see how the States would split into two opposing groups . However fractures across the society are deep and dangerous.




I don't think it's a State v State issue, more a Right / Left issue.

We've already seem the BLM demos, the masks wearing objections and general freedom of movement debates vis a vis covid, then with the US awash with guns it could be "citizens for freedom"(Right and Left wing anarchists)  vs "suppressors of democracy" (police and government institutions).

I think it has the potential to get very nasty.


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## wayneL (27 July 2020)

The divisions in the US are fairly multifaceted and not so easy to split up the sides.

I'm finding some extreme dissonance in my sympathies between the opposing forces.

On the one hand I am totally against the Marxist left, on the other hand I'm totally against the corporatism and *unjustified inequity created by the financialisation of the economy as per created by the actions of the Federal Reserve.

*This does not mean I am in favour of equity in the socialist sense, equal opportunity certainly, but not equal outcomes.

What you have is a situation not unlike what you have in Syria, a whole mishmash of goals and grievances that cannot be resolved by two sides lining up against each other and shooting it out


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## satanoperca (27 July 2020)

"I'm finding some extreme dissonance in my sympathies between the opposing forces."

WyaneL, I am very simple, can you help me out, what does this mean? KISS theory


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## wayneL (27 July 2020)

satanoperca said:


> "I'm finding some extreme dissonance in my sympathies between the opposing forces."
> 
> WyaneL, I am very simple, can you help me out, what does this mean? KISS theory



I've got some appointments and then I will try to clarify what I mean there... It's no easy matter because it's confusing, even for the participants.

If you ask people what they are fighting for or against it is very unclear, but there is certainly a sponsoring thought which is up to us to try and figure out.


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## basilio (12 September 2020)

How the US Attorney General is trying to protect The Don.


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