# Has the U.S. market bottomed??



## sandybeachs (8 May 2009)

firstly i'm not an analyst nor am i an economist.

i'm just your average investor.

i do keep an eye on the market data that's released each day.

i wouldn't say things are peachy the U.S market it still has along way too go before you could say the worst is behind us.

But i have seen some positive improvement in certain areas over the past month or so.

i'm not sure how many people here follow the website below each day. it gives you all the market releases regarding important data about each sectors ie: unemployment etc etc. it's very comprehensive.

if you have some time over the weekend it's worth going back say a month or so and look at certain key areas, from then until now.

unless something rears it's ugly head in the short term for example & hits the market for another 6 and causes a downward spiral, i would say "finally i think there's some chance that we'll continue a slow moving upward trend".

see link below worth reading some of the important market data facts. as i said above go back a month or so and read some of the releases and then read how they look at present.

http://mam.econoday.com/byweek.asp?day=4&month=5&year=2009&cust=mam


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## Aussiest (8 May 2009)

*Re: Has the U.S market bottomed.??*

Thanks for this. There is another site from a thread here. I'll post link later. I think it has Australian data too.

I think the US market has bottomed, but that doesn't mean we won't get a return to the lows or another dip. Overall, not sure where the market will head short - med term, i don't think anybody is . I would have to see more consistent data, over a longer period of time in order to be satisfied we are on the way to a 'recovery'. Eg, not just retail sales data released after a stimulus package. And, apparently the employment data was skewed due to work hrs being cut down.


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## sandybeachs (8 May 2009)

*Re: Has the U.S market bottomed.??*



Aussiest said:


> Thanks for this. There is another site from a thread here. I'll post link later. I think it has Australian data too.
> 
> I think the US market has bottomed, but that doesn't mean we won't get a return to the lows or another dip. Overall, not sure where the market will head short - med term, i don't think anybody is . I would have to see more consistent data, over a longer period of time in order to be satisfied we are on the way to a 'recovery'. Eg, not just retail sales data released after a stimulus package. And, apparently the employment data was skewed due to work hrs being cut down.




i'd like to see the Australian link..

see below, important release tomorrow regarding "Employment Situation"

http://mam.econoday.com/byshoweventfull.asp?fid=437989&cust=mam&year=2009#top


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## Aussiest (8 May 2009)

Have a look at this thread for general news sites.

This is the link that i liked the best.


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## Temjin (8 May 2009)

*Re: Has the U.S market bottomed.??*



Aussiest said:


> I think the US market has bottomed, but that doesn't mean we won't get a return to the lows or another dip.




Heh, you mean you don't know if the US market has bottomed or not. Cos that sentence of your did not really make sense.  

And no, I don't think both the global economy AND the stock markets have bottomed. 

Be very wary of official economic statistics. They will never tell you the full story. If they were accurate, why so many mainstream economists have failed to predict the crisis? And why still so many of them (including the guys at the Fed) have repeatedly underestimate the downturn?


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## sandybeachs (8 May 2009)

*Re: Has the U.S market bottomed.??*



Temjin said:


> Heh, you mean you don't know if the US market has bottomed or not. Cos that sentence of your did not really make sense.
> 
> And no, I don't think both the global economy AND the stock markets have bottomed.
> 
> Be very wary of official economic statistics. They will never tell you the full story. If they were accurate, why so many mainstream economists have failed to predict the crisis? And why still so many of them (including the guys at the Fed) have repeatedly underestimate the downturn?




*hi temjin*

*generally the markets are a forward looking beast, seems as though the market is saying "6 months or so from now the economy will be turning around"*

*do you agree with that sentiment..????*


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## Uncle Festivus (8 May 2009)

sandybeachs said:


> *hi temjin*
> 
> *generally the markets are a forward looking beast, seems as though the market is saying "6 months or so from now the economy will be turning around"*
> 
> *do you agree with that sentiment..????*




Funny that, they said the same thing this time last year.

Public debt to GDP = 80%.
Home owners negative equity.
Consumers are saving.
10 & 30yr bond rates going up.

Self explanatory?


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## moXJO (8 May 2009)

Would rampant inflation be the thing to stop us from revisiting the lows?


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## alphaman (8 May 2009)

moXJO said:


> Would rampant inflation be the thing to stop us from revisiting the lows?



That's always a possibility. Some people genuinely believe rampant Zimbabwe-like inflation that makes everyone a billionaire is good. So if enough voters think this way, governments will certainly oblige.


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## Aussiest (8 May 2009)

*Re: Has the U.S market bottomed.??*



Temjin said:


> Heh, you mean you don't know if the US market has bottomed or not. Cos that sentence of your did not really make sense.




Sorry, i meant i think it has bottomed, but i still think it will dip down from it's current levels now. Not necessarily straight away, but eventually. It will have to correct won't it? 

I don't know if we will reach the same bottom. The news would have to be pretty bad. The human psyche is amazing. I think we've factored in a recession into the current prices and suffered all the psychological torment we will suffer in a while, but that doesn't mean we won't suffer it again. It's just a matter of 'what' will make us that apprehesive . It's hard to imagine. Then again, the dip and recession were hard to imagine.


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## Uncle Festivus (8 May 2009)

If you look at the data unemployment is still going up, just at a reduced rate, so technically it hasn't bottomed. Unemployment nearly 9%. The markets are still pricing in a recovery in 6 months time ie running on hope? The NFP will be revised up as usual? 

Hourly earnings down as well - less ammo for indebted consumers.

So a lot of data is now out there, not sure what will drive it _much_ higher from here without getting overbought, relative to the fundamentals which have yet to be proven to be improving?

And this stat doesn't get much airplay although it probably continues to show the real damage being done to the real economy - 



> However, the Labor Department also reported Thursday that the level of ongoing claims for jobless benefits continues to tally record highs, with a gain of 56,000 to reach 6.35 million in the week ended April 25. The four-week moving average of continuing claims also hit yet another record high, rising 125,250 to 6.21 million.


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## Aussiest (8 May 2009)

Uncle Festivus said:


> So a lot of data is now out there, not sure what will drive it _much_ higher from here without getting overbought, relative to the fundamentals which have yet to be proven to be improving?




I agree with you and i wouldn't dare question your stats . Afterall, you're the guy who started the 'immenent and severe market correction' thread, so you know what you're talking about!

The point i am trying to make (albeit not successfully) is that, 'what is it about human nature'? A similarity that comes to mind is a restuarant i used to know. They had the worst service and food was average, yet people  flocked there. It's like that with the share market at the moment. We know the fundamentals aren't good, yet people are still flocking there. I guess they're trading the trend rather than the reality. Quite smart really, if you ask me, but you've got to know when to pull out


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## Uncle Festivus (9 May 2009)

Aussiest said:


> I agree with you and i wouldn't dare question your stats . Afterall, you're the guy who started the 'immenent and severe market correction' thread, so you know what you're talking about!
> 
> The point i am trying to make (albeit not successfully) is that, 'what is it about human nature'? A similarity that comes to mind is a restuarant i used to know. They had the worst service and food was average, yet people flocked there. It's like that with the share market at the moment. We know the fundamentals aren't good, yet people are still flocking there. I guess they're trading the trend rather than the reality. Quite smart really, if you ask me, but you've got to know when to pull out




Yeh, I understand completely, it's all sentiment & momentum from an oversold point. But it's also starting to show the same sentiment we saw during the last bull market ie latching onto the slighest good news and discounting bad news. So, I am looking for the top here, just not sure when that will be??


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## GumbyLearner (9 May 2009)

Uncle Festivus said:


> Yeh, I understand completely, it's all sentiment & momentum from an oversold point. But it's also starting to show the same sentiment we saw during the last bull market ie latching onto the slighest good news and discounting bad news. So, I am looking for the top here, just not sure when that will be??




I tend to agree UF.
This would have to be the most contrived manipulated rally in the history of the market.

I like this interview from PBS network
April 3, 2009 
Bill Moyers Journal

http://www.pbs.org/moyers/journal/04032009/watch.html


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## sandybeachs (9 May 2009)

hi guys

the markets aren't anywhere near perfect financial sector still has some issues, auto sector terrible and the list goes on and on. on the plus side i really can't see that there's anymore "skeletons in the closet" that may effect the market adversely like it did 6 ~ 12 months ago.

i think many are saying things are sloooowly improving if not at least sentiment is.

i'm sure 100% of the members here would like to see a robust market or even if it's a sideways/slow uptrend.


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## Nyden (9 May 2009)

sandybeachs said:


> i'm sure 100% of the members here would like to see a robust market or even if it's a sideways/slow uptrend.




Hmm, I don't know about that. I'm quite liking my (average) 3% daily gains this week : Creates more fear for folk about missing the boat, which causes them to panic buy, which leads to me making more money. It's all good.


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## sandybeachs (9 May 2009)

Nyden said:


> Hmm, I don't know about that. I'm quite liking my (average) 3% daily gains this week : Creates more fear for folk about missing the boat, which causes them to panic buy, which leads to me making more money. It's all good.




LOL..

i keep an eye on a few penny stocks which in real terms some have absolutely nothing when it comes too assets. yet they are starting to rise just on the fear aspect that they'll miss out.


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## Temjin (18 May 2009)

*Re: Has the U.S market bottomed.??*



sandybeachs said:


> *hi temjin*
> 
> *generally the markets are a forward looking beast, seems as though the market is saying "6 months or so from now the economy will be turning around"*
> 
> *do you agree with that sentiment..????*




Sorry, I knew you asked this but I haven't got to it laterly.

No, I do not agree with that sentiment, at least not exactly.

It can be said that the stock market is a leading indicator of the economy, but it only ANTICIPATES, NOT PREDICTS the economy will be turning around. Very big difference here. 

If you looked back in the 1930s during the Great Depression, there had been over FOUR rallys that produced over 40% return in less than 30 days (or roughly). There were short periods of a concentration of "green shoots" proclaiming that the depression is over (based on "less worse" economic data") and the economy will shoot back up in a V style recovery. Again and again, the public was disappointed and the stock market ended back even lower. 

So don't be so sure about this temporary stock market rally makes you think the economy will go back to its normal trend. 

This is not a typical recession that we have had over the past several decades. Most do because they don't look further back in history.


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## CanOz (18 May 2009)

*Re: Has the U.S market bottomed.??*



Temjin said:


> Sorry, I knew you asked this but I haven't got to it laterly.
> 
> No, I do not agree with that sentiment, at least not exactly.
> 
> ...




Well said Temjin, where were you yesterday to help defend the "realists" on the this forum?



Cheers,


CanOz


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## Temjin (18 May 2009)

*Re: Has the U.S market bottomed.??*



CanOz said:


> Well said Temjin, where were you yesterday to help defend the "realists" on the this forum?
> 
> Cheers,
> 
> CanOz




lol Sorry, this forum is too big for me to cover every posts. Was probably too busy playing bowling yesterday to worry about trying to smack the disillusioned people back to reality. 

P.S: I think I know which thread you are referring to now...heh 

In fact, I probably wouldn't bother trying too hard. Too many people have invested too much, both emotionally and financially, in their own beliefs to be told that they are wrong. I can never win an argument against those people on the internet anyway. It doesn't really give me any benefits except to satisfy my own self-esteem, so don't bother.


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