# Tipping Competition for Full CY 2019



## Joe Blow (4 December 2018)

Welcome to the Full CY 2019 Stock Tipping Competition everyone! 

Just a reminder that no changes of entries are allowed during the year, so please choose carefully and with a 12 month time frame in mind. All stocks selected must be $0.10 or more at the time of entry.

The rules for the 2019 full year stock tipping competition are as follows:

Each entrant must select four ASX listed stocks.
No stocks that are trading at less than $0.10 on the day of entry may be entered.
A stock must have traded at least $100,000 in value in the five trading days prior to entry to be eligible.
If a stock is taken over it can be replaced. The exit price shall be taken to be the takeover price. The new stock must be nominated before the date the taken over stock ceases trading and the entry price of the new stock shall be taken to be the closing price on the day the taken over stock ceases trading.

The competition will run from Wednesday, 2 January 2019 to Tuesday, 31 December 2019.
Entry prices will be the price at the close of trading on Monday, 31 December 2018.
Entries close at midnight on Monday, 31 December 2018.
The cash prizes will be the same as in 2018:

1st Place: $1000
2nd Place: $500
3rd Place: $350

When entering, please be sure to post your top pick for 2019, the stock that you believe will gain the most in 2019 and the reasons why in the relevant stock thread.

Entries are now open. Please enter at your convenience by posting your entries in this thread. Thanks and good luck!


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## peter2 (5 December 2018)

2019 is going to be a difficult year to predict for the ASX market. The world and Aust economies are growing slowly and steadily. This should be enough to make us confident that 2019 will end higher than 2018. However as usual, politics will interfere. The uncertainty of the effect of Trump's Trade War with China continues to rattle the US markets. China's economic growth is slowing and this will reduce Aust commodity exports and keep prices low. The Federal election in 2019 also has the ability to modify investor sentiment. Add in the chance of a US and Aust recession and it's certainly going to be a difficult year to predict. 

I'll be looking for small companies that have the potential to grow in spite of what's happening in the world and ASX markets. 

*MMJ*: MMJ Group Holdings ( Invests in companies involved with cannabis production)
If the world economy goes to "pot" MMJ should be OK. My top stock for 2019.

*ACF*: Acrow Formwork. (construction services, scaffolding)

*PET*: Phoslock Environmental Technology (remediation of waterways)

*PNR*: Pantoro Ltd.  (gold miner)


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## mcgrath111 (5 December 2018)

Here goes, the story of Bull meets bear.
I had similar picks for 2018, and don't see much growth for 2019 either.
Perhaps the housing bubble can finally crumble and take the banks down a notch.

BBUS
BBOZ
BEAR
USD

The three b's:


If I could short individual stocks in the comp I would go:
MQG
CBA
CCL
APT


Best of luck to all!


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## Joe Blow (10 December 2018)

Good evening folks.

Just letting everyone know that a sponsor has come on board the Full CY 2019 competition and has contributed $1,500 to the prize pool. As a result, first place is now $1000, second place is $500 and third place is $350!

The sponsor involved has requested that they not be identified just yet. All will be revealed in the first couple of months of 2019.

So with that kind of prize money up for grabs, you'd be crazy not to throw your hat into the ring! Don't forget to get your entries in before the deadline of midnight on 31 December.


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## jbocker (11 December 2018)

Looking forward to this Joe. Just to be clear, we pick 4 stocks and the top tipster is the one with the greatest improvement % for ONE of their stocks (and not the combined cumulative of the four). And you CAN win with one of the stocks that was not your top pick.


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## Joe Blow (11 December 2018)

jbocker said:


> Looking forward to this Joe. Just to be clear, we pick 4 stocks and the top tipster is the one with the greatest improvement % for ONE of their stocks (and not the combined cumulative of the four). And you CAN win with one of the stocks that was not your top pick.




Hi j, apologies for any confusion. The 2019 competition is essentially the same as the 2018 competition except that each entrant will choose four stocks instead of five. The only other change is that each entrant must nominate their top pick for the year (i.e. the stock that will perform the best out of the four they select) and post the reasons for this in the thread for that stock before midnight on 31 December.

As with 2018, the winner will be the entrant whose stocks (all of them on average) perform the best in percentage terms over the entire calendar year.


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## willy1111 (11 December 2018)

JIN - Jumbo Interactive - Top Stock
PWH - Power Holdings
BBN - Baby Bunting
FLN - Freelancer


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## myrtie100 (11 December 2018)

NEA
APT
BVS
CUV


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## Garpal Gumnut (11 December 2018)

Joe Blow said:


> Good evening folks.
> 
> Just letting everyone know that a sponsor has come on board the Full CY 2019 competition and has contributed $1,000 to the prize pool. As a result, first place is now $700, second place is $400 and third place is $250!
> 
> ...




Pure unadulterated cruelty Joe. 

4. To Pick
1. The best 

We shall squirm.

gg


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## Joe Blow (11 December 2018)

Ladies and gentlemen I have some remarkable news. The sponsor who added $1,000 to the prize pool yesterday has added another $500 today. This takes first place in the Full CY 2019 Stock Tipping Competition to a massive $1,000, second place to $500 and third place to $350. 

I have edited the two posts above to reflect the new prize pool. Get those entries in folks, and spread the word about the huge prizes up for grabs. Let's make the 2019 competition an epic one!


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## peter2 (11 December 2018)

@systematic   Time to start the number crunching.




@explod  Will this be the year for gold?


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## T0BY (12 December 2018)

OSL (top pick for 2019)
BID
AB1
KRL


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## mcgrath111 (12 December 2018)

mcgrath111 said:


> Here goes, the story of Bull meets bear.
> I had similar picks for 2018, and don't see much growth for 2019 either.
> Perhaps the housing bubble can finally crumble and take the banks down a notch.
> 
> ...




Edit, top pick is BBUS

All hail the bears!


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## tech/a (12 December 2018)

*Hmm I'm going to have to think about this more than 
I have in the past.

*


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## myrtie100 (12 December 2018)

Oh yeah my top pick is NEA
https://www.aussiestockforums.com/threads/nea-nearmap-limited.25780/page-12


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## sasch (12 December 2018)

1. SLR
2. CLH
3. MAH
4. TLS


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## myrtie100 (12 December 2018)

Hi @Joe Blow 
I've just realized that Doray Minerals is merging with SilverLake in March.
Can I change my pick please?
If it's ok, I would like *CUV* Clinuvel Pharma instead.
Thanks


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## Joe Blow (12 December 2018)

myrtie100 said:


> Hi @Joe Blow
> I've just realized that Doray Minerals is merging with SilverLake in March.
> Can I change my pick please?
> If it's ok, I would like *CUV* Clinuvel Pharma instead.
> Thanks




Hi myrtie, I have updated DRM to CUV as per your request.


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## peter2 (12 December 2018)

Changing selections before Dec 31st is OK with me as I'll go through this thread carefully after Dec 31st when compiling the 2019 list. This assumes I'm still coordinating this comp. With the HUGE prize money on offer Joe may like to get some independent auditors to manage the comp. 

I hear the auditors of RCR might be available.


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## Logique (13 December 2018)

I'll review the gold stocks and get back to you!
Thanks in advance to Peter if you're going to manage again


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## Sdajii (13 December 2018)

Hi Joe, I'll have a go this year, I was in hospital ill at the end of last year and missed out for 2018.

Given that there are four options for each person, may we choose companies already taken by other members?

Also, is our nomination for the best performer of our four choices related to the outcome of the competition or just for fun along the way?


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## kid hustlr (13 December 2018)

Going to try something different this year and play a 'theme'

SM1
A2M
BAL
CLV

thanks and GL all


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## peter2 (13 December 2018)

@Sdajii  You may select companies that others have chosen. The idea behind the top selection is to increase comments in the stock specific threads in a similar manner to the monthly comp. The performance of the top selection is equally weighted with the other selections. Good luck.


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## peter2 (13 December 2018)

For your information. Past glories.

2015  
So Cynical +61%  (CLV, RIC, VED, ALX, MXI)
ROE  +57%  (RFG, SUL, ORL, SIQ, VED)
chipmunk3d +46% (AJX, NEU, IPH, OSH, VOC)

2016


2017



Note: Joe has included a minimum price of 0.10 (at time of entry) this year.


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## Sdajii (14 December 2018)

Thanks, Peter. Much appreciated


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## Darc Knight (14 December 2018)

Kudos to you Peter2 for your work on this.
I'm going to make this my first (amatuer) attempt at picking some - rather total luck. You in @SirRumpole ?


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## SirRumpole (14 December 2018)

Darc Knight said:


> Kudos to you Peter2 for your work on this.
> I'm going to make this my first (amatuer) attempt at picking some - rather total luck. You in @SirRumpole ?




Might as well throw a dart at the ASX list and see where it lands.

AMP can't really fall any further so I may go with that for now.


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## tech/a (14 December 2018)

Rumps
You need 4
Is that AMP x 4


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## SirRumpole (14 December 2018)

tech/a said:


> Rumps
> You need 4
> Is that AMP x 4




Still thinking.


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## PZ99 (14 December 2018)

SirRumpole said:


> Still thinking.



The telco's might be tempting after what happened yesterday


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## explod (14 December 2018)

Still favouring gold but breaking it down a little with:

BAT
LTR
NST, and
MOY.            Thanks for your good work Peter.


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## T0BY (14 December 2018)

T0BY said:


> OSL (top pick for 2019)
> BID
> AB1
> KRL



Alright, after consideration it has become apparent I need to amend my picks..
KRL is no longer listed on the ASX, so that obviously won't do.
AB1 is currently trading at 10c and could be less than 10c on the 2nd of Jan quite possibly.
OSL liquidity is an issue and may or may not trade $100k worth of volume in the 5 days prior to Jan 2nd.

In light of this, I would like to amend my choices to the following..

BID -BidEnergy (top pick for 2019)
GAS -State Gas
SAR -Saracen
GSS - Genetic Signatures

Thanks and I wish everyone luck


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## Logique (15 December 2018)

PLS - Pilbara Min - top pick. Tipping PLS again this year, for my sins I still buy the lithium story, and I think it can take another step up in 2019
EVN - Evolution Min
RMS - Ramelius Res
SAR - Saracen Min
Thanks Joe and Peter, and sponsors.


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## bigdog (18 December 2018)

Suggestion to get more ASF members

Is it worth advising Hotcopper members about the prize money to be won for 
*Tipping Competition for Full CY 2019*

"The sponsor who added $1,000 to the prize pool yesterday has added another $500 today. This takes first place in the Full CY 2019 Stock Tipping Competition to a massive $1,000, second place to $500 and third place to $350."


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## Darc Knight (18 December 2018)

Maybe all the ASF members who post there (or elsewhere) should advertise this Comp in their signatures on HC etc.


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## Joe Blow (18 December 2018)

bigdog said:


> Is it worth advising Hotcopper members about the prize money to be won for
> *Tipping Competition for Full CY 2019*
> 
> "The sponsor who added $1,000 to the prize pool yesterday has added another $500 today. This takes first place in the Full CY 2019 Stock Tipping Competition to a massive $1,000, second place to $500 and third place to $350."




Yes, please feel free to do this.



Darc Knight said:


> Maybe all the ASF members who post there (or elsewhere) should advertise this Comp in their signatures on HC etc.




This is a great idea. If you post on other forums please feel free to let them know about the prizes to be won in the 2019 Full CY Stock Tipping Competition. There are 13 days left before the end of the year so there is still plenty of time to enter.


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## Tumbarumba (18 December 2018)

My tips;
XRO  growing customer base (I use it) and huge financial ambitions. My top pick.
TCL  Cash rich, certain dividends
NEU  Likely takeover target, pharma.
CVN  Recent oil discoveries, 

thanks


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## bigdog (19 December 2018)

Joe can your please post the rules for Tipping Competition for Full CY 2019
https://www.aussiestockforums.com/threads/tipping-competition-for-full-cy-2019.34408/

I can no longer access page 3 for the first posts for this comp!

I can only view pages 1 and 2 and can not view posts #1 to #7 on page 3


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## Joe Blow (19 December 2018)

bigdog said:


> Joe can your please post the rules for Tipping Competition for Full CY 2019
> https://www.aussiestockforums.com/threads/tipping-competition-for-full-cy-2019.34408/
> 
> I can no longer access page 3 for the first posts for this comp!
> ...




Hi bigdog, here are the competition rules:

The rules for the 2019 full year stock tipping competition are as follows:

Each entrant must select four ASX listed stocks.
No stocks that are trading at less than $0.10 on the day of entry may be entered.
A stock must have traded at least $100,000 in value in the five trading days prior to entry to be eligible.
If a stock is taken over it can be replaced. The exit price shall be taken to be the takeover price. The new stock must be nominated before the date the taken over stock ceases trading and the entry price of the new stock shall be taken to be the closing price on the day the taken over stock ceases trading.

The competition will run from Wednesday, 2 January 2019 to Tuesday, 31 December 2019.
Entry prices will be the price at the close of trading on Friday, 28 December 2018.
Entries close at midnight on Monday, 31 December 2018.


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## bigdog (19 December 2018)

Joe added ASF* Tipping Competition for Full CY 2019* 
post to Hotcopper now

Be interested to see outcome

https://hotcopper.com.au/threads/au...on-for-full-cy-2019.4583065/?post_id=36903223


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## noirua (24 December 2018)

Jupiter Mines JMS - Top pick
Sheffield Resources SFX
Silver Lake Resources SLR
Ramelius Resources RMS

Thanks Joe


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## bigdog (24 December 2018)

WOR - WORLEYPARSONS LTD - Top Pick
A2M - THE A2 MILK COMPANY
BAL - BELLAMY'S AUSTRALIA 
APT - AFTERPAY TOUCH

Thanks Joe


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## sptrawler (24 December 2018)

AWC
S32
IFL
MCR

Thanks Joe


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## Wysiwyg (25 December 2018)

PLS
SYR 
NAB
EMV - Top Pick

thank you to Joe and the sponsor anonymous.


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## tech/a (26 December 2018)

BLG
DNA
GAS
TER

2019 a great year!


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## leyy (26 December 2018)

APT
APX
FOD
WTC - Top Pick


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## jjbinks (26 December 2018)

FLN - top pick
SAR
TRS
SBM

Thanks Joe


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## Sdajii (26 December 2018)

SEA - Top pick
TER
SXY
GAS


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## aus_trader (27 December 2018)

I am going to stick to stocks that I have already done some research on and somewhat familiar with. Had a couple of speculative penny stocks in mind that has the potential to explode but competition rules do not allow stocks trading below 10c so I will keep them out from the 4 picks below.

*AMI* - One of the lowest cost (cost of extracting gold from mining) Gold miners on ASX.
*Z1P* - My pick for outperforming in the online financial transactions space.
         Possibly the underdog to the 2.7B giant APT in this space.
*BPT* - Speculative pick for oil price recovery.
*FOD* - (Top Pick) - Food/Beverage manufacturer and retailer making deals and expanding into China.

Disclosure: Currently hold shares in AMI and FOD as shown in the Speculative Stock Portfolio. Also have held Z1P and BPT until the recent downturn.


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## jbocker (27 December 2018)

BPT Top Pick
SPL
NHF
RBL


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## PZ99 (27 December 2018)

Playing it safe(er) next year.

So 3 banks and the good oil

NAB Top pick
ANZ
WBC
OOO

With thanks to our sponsor and happy new year all


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## Trav. (27 December 2018)

PNV (Top Pick)
GNE
D2O
TNE


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## $20shoes (28 December 2018)

Thanks Joe.
I'll have some SLR (Top Pick)
BBUS
PNV
CWY


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## luutzu (28 December 2018)

MRM - Top pick
MDR
MND
STO

Thanks Joe.

and thanks explod for the correction.


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## ah13 (28 December 2018)

Thanks Joe
NWH (Top pick)
LGD
UNV
MAH


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## Joe Blow (28 December 2018)

Joe Blow said:


> When entering, please be sure to post your top pick for 2019, the stock that you believe will gain the most in 2019 and the reasons why in the relevant stock thread.




Folks, please don't forget to post the reasons why you selected your top pick in the thread on that stock. I will be checking early in the new year that all entrants have done this and would hate for anyone to miss out.


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## kid hustlr (28 December 2018)

kid hustlr said:


> Going to try something different this year and play a 'theme'
> 
> SM1 (top pick)
> A2M
> ...



Ty!


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## ah13 (28 December 2018)

Hi Joe

Just noticed the requirement that the chosen stocks must have traded at least $100 000 in value in the 5 prior trading days. Is this a cumulative $100 000 or an average of $100000/day? Just noticed that one of the ones I've chosen would not meet either -I assume it's too late to change my entry?
Thanks


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## Joe Blow (28 December 2018)

ah13 said:


> Hi Joe
> 
> Just noticed the requirement that the chosen stocks must have traded at least $100 000 in value in the 5 prior trading days. Is this a cumulative $100 000 or an average of $100000/day? Just noticed that one of the ones I've chosen would not meet either -I assume it's too late to change my entry?
> Thanks




It's a cumulative $100,000, so if a stock trades $20,000 in value on each of the five days prior to entry then it qualifies.

If any competition entrant determines that they have entered a stock that is ineligible to be entered then they can change it at any time before the deadline and I will will edit their original post to reflect that change. Just post the change in this thread.


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## ah13 (28 December 2018)

In that case I'd like to please replace LYL with UNV.
Many thanks Joe.


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## tech/a (28 December 2018)

If DNA doesnt reach 10C then PEX

Top pick was DNA

But if not TER


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## Joe Blow (28 December 2018)

ah13 said:


> In that case I'd like to please replace LYL with UNV.
> Many thanks Joe.




Entry replaced.


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## aus_trader (28 December 2018)

Trav. said:


> PNV (Top Pick)
> GNE
> D2O
> TNE



Good set of stocks Trav, either at All-Time-Highs or about to break out into that territory


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## TLS (28 December 2018)

NAB - top pick
WBC
ANZ
CBA

Obvious theme and risks involved but will watching them with interest anyway


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## Trav. (28 December 2018)

aus_trader said:


> Good set of stocks Trav, either at All-Time-Highs or about to break out into that territory



Thanks @aus_trader . Still working on my overall TP but this comp is good as you can't hide from your poor selections. It will be interesting to watch everyone's tips during the year.

Good luck mate!


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## fiftyeight (28 December 2018)

PLS
XRO
AMI
CSS

Cheers


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## verce (28 December 2018)

PO3
A2M
APT
AKP


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## qldfrog (28 December 2018)

first:
NST
then OGC,
EVN,
RSG
a golden selection


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## Iggy_Pop (28 December 2018)

DNK top pick
BKY
IPD
RVA

Hopefully they stay above 10 cents
Iggy


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## Parse (29 December 2018)

TNG top pick
ANZ
SEA
GAS

Thanks Joe.


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## Darc Knight (29 December 2018)

Joe Blow said:


> The rules for the 2019 full year stock tipping competition are as follows:
> 
> Entry prices will be the price at the close of trading on Friday, 28 December 2018.
> Entries close at midnight on Monday, 31 December 2018.




Forgive my boldness or naivety but doesn't the fact that the entry prices are taken as of 28 December and entries close midnight 31 December allow an extra shorter day of trading on the 31 for "shrewd" folk to pick stocks that gained on the 31st with an entry price on the 28th?

ASX trading days:
https://www.asx.com.au/about/asx-trading-calendar-2018.htm


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## Joe Blow (29 December 2018)

Darc Knight said:


> Forgive my boldness or naivety but doesn't the fact that the entry prices are taken as of 28 December and entries close midnight 31 December allow an extra shorter day of trading on the 31 for "shrewd" folk to pick stocks that gained on the 31st with an entry price on the 28th?
> 
> ASX trading days:
> https://www.asx.com.au/about/asx-trading-calendar-2018.htm




You are correct. My brain musn't have been firing on all cylinders the day I started this thread. I have now edited the first post. Entry prices are now determined at the close of trading on Monday 31 December 2018.


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## greggles (29 December 2018)

OK, I'm going to take a punt on the following stocks:

1. SFG - Seafarms Group (top pick)
2. IRC - Intermin Resources
3. 4DS - 4DS Memory
4. SLR - Silver Lake Resources

Thanks to @peter2 for his efforts in keeping the full year competition going!


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## So_Cynical (30 December 2018)

I have gone a little/very conservative this year as all my picks actually have large
cash flows, im hoping for a good cumulative performance from these over
sold somewhat financial stocks.

TOP PICK - PPS

PPS - Praemium (Fintech platform, big growth, big exposure to super)
OVH - Onevue (will pay a divi soon, big exposure to super)
IRI - Integrated Research (big fintech international software company)
PPT - Perpetual (Because the world is not going to end ~ PE:10.49)


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## rcm617 (30 December 2018)

MWY - top pick
FID
KSL
AOG


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## Wyatt (30 December 2018)

BGL - Explorer with recent high grade gold hits in WA (Top Pick)
WSA - Great assets looking for rebound in Ni price
ORE - Well funded Li2Co3 producer looking for rebound in sector
PNV - Innovative company in healthcare sector

Thanks Joe


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## Knobby22 (30 December 2018)

I am going to study everyone's picks during my break.

Mine are:
APT  Afterpay, Australia's best tech stock
DGR  Clever company with major shareholding of various miners, still cheap.
MSB Mesoblast,  riskier biotech as there may be raisings or phase 3 failures but seems like a breakthrough company.
SPL Starpharma,  cheap at present, a company with a great future.


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## systematic (30 December 2018)

peter2 said:


> @systematic   Time to start the number crunching.
> 
> View attachment 90717
> 
> ...





Mate, after 2018 I’m outsourcing the dart throwing


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## Knobby22 (30 December 2018)

(I agree with PNV, A2M and BFG that others have picked)


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## Wyatt (30 December 2018)

systematic said:


> Mate, after 2018 I’m outsourcing the dart throwing
> 
> View attachment 91017






This chimp
	

		
			
		

		
	



	

		
			
		

		
	
 looks very smart and happy


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## Cam019 (31 December 2018)

Put me down for:

D20 - Top pick
EVN
PO3
TER

Thanks!


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## Darc Knight (31 December 2018)

SSM - Service Stream - Top pick
ARB - ARB Corporation Limited
IMF - IMF Bentham Limited
AX1 - Accent Group Ltd

Pls and thank you Joe and Peter2


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## Roller_1 (31 December 2018)

RSG
SLC
SHV
INR

Literally plucked random stocks with zero analysis, will almost be a shame if i win =]


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## barney (31 December 2018)

Joe Blow said:


> When entering, please be sure to post your top pick for 2019, the stock that you believe will gain the most in 2019 *and the reasons why in the relevant stock thread*.




Firstly, well done to the currently anonymous Sponsor …. I have an inkling of who I think it may be, but whoever it turns out to be, well done
​Quick suggestion Joe ….. Given the input from the Sponsor and the possible benefit to all us Members. 

Can I suggest that Players should be required to post a reason for *ALL* of their selections in their relevant threads .... *AND* …

Be required to post a minimum of *one update per Stock per month* in the relevant thread for the duration of the Competition …. This is a very small amount of effort to ask for but in itself could create a worthwhile amount of additional postings/traffic. 

I can guarantee you that any and all Members who have signed up for the Comp will be more than happy to do the above …… so much so that *I insist* that you make us do it!!


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## barney (31 December 2018)

Hey @Joe Blow   Following on from the above Demand!

Being the Xmas period, I assume many others like myself may not have had as much time to spend on Forum visits ….. So much so that I had almost missed this thread (my own fault of course but nonetheless true)

Anyway, I wonder whether there may be a lot of other Members who are unaware of the comp closing tonight …. 

Perhaps a bulk email post to all Members with a 1 day extension on the Entry just to ensure the majority have a chance to get involved? (I don't recall getting one but may have missed it) …… 

Assuming my above suggestion/demand is taken up, the more entries, the more posts/traffic generated ….. This is the objective after all, and better for the new Sponsor

Cheers …. and Happy New Year to all.


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## barney (31 December 2018)

After all the above babble … my selections in the Comp are:-

*PNR* …. My top pick  (ps I see you are hopeful for it as well @peter2 … hope we are both right!)

*TRY …*

*SLR …*

*GOR …
*
As can be seen, I am not much into diversification … All young "Goldies" …. all or nothing


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## trillionaire#1 (31 December 2018)

GLN ( Top Pick)
GOR
AQZ
ISD

Happy new year to all ,and good luck in the comp


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## SirRumpole (31 December 2018)

Very boring but I'll go for some staples as I think it's going to be a rocky year.

AMP, CBA, WES, WOW.


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## mikeroxoz (31 December 2018)

SPL top pick
PPT
REA
OGC


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## aus_trader (31 December 2018)

barney said:


> Be required to post a minimum of *one update per Stock per month* in the relevant thread for the duration of the Competition …. This is a very small amount of effort to ask for but in itself could create a worthwhile amount of additional postings/traffic.



barney, I like your posts on the various parts of the forum. But the above quoted suggestion may be a bit over the top and can create too much work.


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## barney (31 December 2018)

aus_trader said:


> barney, I like your posts on the various parts of the forum. But the above quoted suggestion may be a bit over the top and can create *too much work*.




Hi Aus … and Happy New Year …… 

My initial reaction was "surely you jest" as I thought you may be geeing me up

By "update" … I just meant a post on the chosen Stocks to basically "bump" the Thread, particularly if at hadn't been posted on for a while.  

For example, a post might say as little as ….. "Not much price movement but fundamentals remain positive"  ……. and that would be it! …… definitely not looking to make it hard for anyone.

Hope that makes more sense. Cheers.


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## Joules MM1 (31 December 2018)

1 DEG 
2 RSG
3 TTT
4 GMA


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## aus_trader (31 December 2018)

barney said:


> Hi Aus … and Happy New Year ……
> 
> My initial reaction was "surely you jest" as I thought you may be geeing me up
> 
> ...



All good mate, happy new year to you too.


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## aus_trader (31 December 2018)

Joules MM1 said:


> 1 DEG
> 2 RSG
> 3 TTT
> 4 GMA




Just noticed TTT had a good run on the 1/2 day of trading today. Could it continue to 2019 ?


----------



## debtfree (31 December 2018)

A quick look through some charts and picked 4 stocks that no one else loves.
1-EXU (Top Pick)
2-CAJ
3-HE8
4-UNV
Thanks Joe, Peter and also the sponsor to make this happen.


----------



## debtfree (31 December 2018)

I don't believe it, EXU is a takeover so selections are:
1-HE8
2-CAJ
3-BIS
4-UNV


----------



## Joe Blow (31 December 2018)

barney said:


> Hey @Joe Blow   Following on from the above Demand!
> 
> Being the Xmas period, I assume many others like myself may not have had as much time to spend on Forum visits ….. So much so that I had almost missed this thread (my own fault of course but nonetheless true)
> 
> ...




Hi Barney, I haven't been able to get an email out today but I'm going to extend the deadline for competition entries until midnight tomorrow night to allow for any stragglers who would like to get a last minute entry in. I'll be extending the deadline not just for the full calendar year competition but also the regular monthly one. Hopefully we'll get some more entrants through the door tomorrow, but I can already safely report that the 2019 competition is going to be our biggest yet by a very large margin.

Keep those entries coming ladies and gentlemen.


----------



## Darc Knight (31 December 2018)

Darc Knight said:


> SSM - Service Stream - Top pick
> ARB - ARB Corporation Limited
> IMF - IMF Bentham Limited
> AX1 - Accent Group Ltd
> ...




@galumay Just so you guys realise, the reason I tipped these four was that they lie just outside the ASX 200 or ASX 300. I'm looking at what sort of price movement happens once they get snapped up by the big Index Funds.
Just a thought.


----------



## tinhat (31 December 2018)

Congratulations Jo on raking in the big bucks in prize money. I must say though that I am disappointed with this rule:

A stock must have traded at least $100,000 in value in the five trading days prior to entry to be eligible.
It rules out the wildly speculative punt I wanted to take on biotech Kazia Therapeutics (KZA) which in the past week has only traded around $23,000 in value.

I see you have extended the deadline another 24 hours. I'll be back once I've found my hat.


----------



## Joe Blow (31 December 2018)

tinhat said:


> I must say though that I am disappointed with this rule:
> 
> A stock must have traded at least $100,000 in value in the five trading days prior to entry to be eligible.



The monthly competition is a case of throwing a dart at a dartboard. It's a lot of fun, but it's just a guessing game. The yearly competition is more of a real stock picking game with a twelve month time frame. That particular rule was originally intended to exclude a lot of microcap wildcards to try and make it more of a strategy game than a game of darts. It's hard to know whether it has any kind of material effect, so perhaps it's something we can reconsider for the 2020 competition?


----------



## Triple B (1 January 2019)

#1   DRO
       DOW
       BHP
       SAR


----------



## basilio (1 January 2019)

Here's hoping...
1   PGC
TLG
CGC
D20


----------



## barney (1 January 2019)

tinhat said:


> *Congratulations Jo on raking in the big bucks in prize money*.




Agree … and a big Thumbs Up to the "Sponsor" who obviously wants to help kick things along




tinhat said:


> *I see you have extended the deadline another 24 hours.*




Yeah Good move @Joe Blow 
​


----------



## Iggy_Pop (1 January 2019)

Might have to review one of my tips as I overlooked the $100k requirement. I did not find any easy way to get turnover over 5 days so not 100% sure, but not sure I made the $100k turnover in 5 days with RVA. Please replace RVA with RNO if it does not meet the $100k. If any others do not make the cut please use VHT. 

Original pick
DNK top pick
BKY
IPD
RVA

*Revised picks if RVA not acceptable*
DNK top pick
BKY
IPD
RNO

Backup if any are unacceptable VHT

Iggy


----------



## Darc Knight (1 January 2019)

We sabotaging I mean checking our competition for consolidations @Ann ? 

Who we doing first?


----------



## Ann (1 January 2019)

Darc Knight said:


> We sabotaging I mean checking our competition for consolidations @Ann ?
> 
> Who we doing first?



Anyone whose name you don't see on the forum a lot....let's try not to upset our friends until a bit later. I haven't checked but I think I did a great job sabotaging my own pick for December!


----------



## Darc Knight (1 January 2019)

Ann said:


> Anyone whose name you don't see on the forum a lot....let's try not to upset our friends until a bit later. I haven't checked but I think I did a great job sabotaging my own pick for December!




RIGHT!!! Infrequent Posters be warned!!!


----------



## tinhat (1 January 2019)

CZI *
BSL
HUB
HZN

* top pick. See my comments here.


----------



## explod (1 January 2019)

explod said:


> Still favouring gold but breaking it down a little with:
> 
> BAT
> LTR
> ...



Sorry Joe but have just noted the new rule on value traded so have to discard BAT and LTR.

My entry now is:-
NST
MOY
RMS, and
SBM


----------



## systematic (1 January 2019)

Thank you; @Joe Blow , @peter2  and sponsor!

*PET* PHOSLOCK ENV TEC 
*MMJ* MMJ GROUP HLDS 
*PDN* PALADIN ENERGY 
*CAA* CAPRAL


----------



## peter2 (1 January 2019)

That's interesting @systematic . 
My garage Atari computer and your IBM Summit supercomputer have come up with two identical selections. I wonder what else I'll see when I compile the competition worksheet.


----------



## Parse (2 January 2019)

Ann said:


> Anyone whose name you don't see on the forum a lot....let's try not to upset our friends until a bit later. I haven't checked but I think I did a great job sabotaging my own pick for December!




We already know SEA have one of your consolidation warnings


----------



## systematic (2 January 2019)

peter2 said:


> That's interesting @systematic .
> My garage Atari computer and your IBM Summit supercomputer have come up with two identical selections. I wonder what else I'll see when I compile the competition worksheet.




Ha!  I hadn't seen that!  I have peace of mind about those two now


----------



## Smurf1976 (2 January 2019)

As a general question for those who entered, will you be backing your choice by investing your own real money into the shares you've chosen?

Or you see it purely as a more academic type of exercise and are invested in other things?

For the record I see a few mentions of A2M and SAR both of which I hold.


----------



## Sdajii (3 January 2019)

Smurf1976 said:


> As a general question for those who entered, will you be backing your choice by investing your own real money into the shares you've chosen?
> 
> Or you see it purely as a more academic type of exercise and are invested in other things?
> 
> For the record I see a few mentions of A2M and SAR both of which I hold.




I'm currently in one of them and may jump into one or two of the others through the year.


----------



## PZ99 (3 January 2019)

Smurf1976 said:


> As a general question for those who entered, will you be backing your choice by investing your own real money into the shares you've chosen?
> 
> Or you see it purely as a more academic type of exercise and are invested in other things?
> 
> For the record I see a few mentions of A2M and SAR both of which I hold.



I'm holding NAB and OOO from my picks. 

The rest are pennies that are traded for beer money


----------



## tech/a (3 January 2019)

Smurf1976 said:


> As a general question for those who entered, will you be backing your choice by investing your own real money into the shares you've chosen?
> 
> Or you see it purely as a more academic type of exercise and are invested in other things?
> 
> For the record I see a few mentions of A2M and SAR both of which I hold.




From time to time I  may hold some
But as a short term trade.
Picks are held regardless!


----------



## tinhat (3 January 2019)

I'm holding CZI, HZN and BSL.


----------



## systematic (3 January 2019)

Smurf1976 said:


> As a general question for those who entered, will you be backing your choice by investing your own real money into the shares you've chosen?
> 
> Or you see it purely as a more academic type of exercise and are invested in other things?
> 
> For the record I see a few mentions of A2M and SAR both of which I hold.




None this year.  I think one year in one of the early comps I had my actual 5.  I tend to mix it up as far as selection method goes, and have fun with it (e.g. 2018 I had my version of 'deep value' if memory serves).  2019 was a very quick and dirty look at the market to get in the comp at the last minute - as I haven't done my 'real' end of year sifting, yet.  Looking at it now, two of my four tips for 2019 would be different, had I had a bit extra time.


----------



## jbocker (4 January 2019)

Smurf1976 said:


> As a general question for those who entered, will you be backing your choice by investing your own real money into the shares you've chosen?
> 
> Or you see it purely as a more academic type of exercise and are invested in other things?
> 
> For the record I see a few mentions of A2M and SAR both of which I hold.



I hold 3 of the 4 that I have selected, and have an order in on one, thinking it will probably drop before going up (wrong so far).
So if you are asking if I put my money where my mouth is, then the answer is, Yes right next to my foot!


----------



## barney (4 January 2019)

jbocker said:


> So if you are asking if I put my money where my mouth is, then the answer is, Yes *right next to my foot!*




Lol … very funny …… and a situation I and many others no doubt often replicate


----------



## peter2 (4 January 2019)

We have *49* entries in the 2019 CY Comp. 

Although this is 36% more than last year I'm disappointed we didn't get more. 

Popular selections for 2019:
*5*:  APT, SLR
*4*: GAS, SAR
*3*: A2M, ANZ, D20, EVN, NAB, PLS, PNV, RMS, RSG, SPL, TER

We respect your privacy and will not subject your selections to any psychological or psychiatric analysis. 

*Please check that you're included (I did omit a few last year) and that your selections are correct. *
*

*


----------



## systematic (4 January 2019)

Anyone got money magazine last November issue? Think that one had Martin Roth top 5 for 2019. I forgot to pick it up. 

Couldn’t find skaffold in 2018 or 2019


----------



## systematic (4 January 2019)

@peter2

Lincoln indicators this year conveniently picks 4 ‘star growth’ stocks for our guest list:

ALU Altium
APX Appen
IEL IDP Education
SAR Saracen Minerals

Source


----------



## Sdajii (5 January 2019)

Thanks for doing this, Peter! Most people would be pleased with a 36% increase on the previous year with most things! I think that's pretty good!

Is there some sort of leaderboard like the monthly competitions, or do we just wait around in the dark until January next year? (sorry if it's right in my face and I'm blind!)


----------



## peter2 (5 January 2019)

There'll be updates showing everybody's progress at the end of each month. 
The top 10 equity curves and even the top 10 stocks may be shown as well.


----------



## Smurf1976 (5 January 2019)

peter2 said:


> Although this is 36% more than last year I'm disappointed we didn't get more.



I'll be in next year.

I was going to enter, then read the rules on 31 December and noted that it was 4 stocks not one so didn't enter, then read the bit about time being extended after the new deadline had just passed.

Having already stuffed it up so comprehensively I decided to quit whilst I'm behind. 

Next year I'll give it a go.


----------



## barney (5 January 2019)

peter2 said:


> We have *49* entries in the 2019 CY Comp.
> 
> Although this is 36% more than last year *I'm disappointed we didn't get more*.







Smurf1976 said:


> *I'll be in next year.*
> 
> Having already stuffed it up so comprehensively I decided to quit whilst I'm behind.
> 
> *Next year I'll give it a go*.




Ok … Further below I have another of my random suggestions … Bear in mind I'm only trying to help

The value that the yearly stock picking comp could add to @Joe Blow and the ASF site in traffic and postings etc *should not be underestimated …. The more entries the better full stop!! *

To close the Comp entries down at this point given the advertising opportunity our new Sponsor has given us seems counter productive …  (Yeah I know we all have rules to follow, but there are alternatives here)

Lets use @Smurf1976 as an example  (sorry Smurf) ….. Long standing Member who posts some brilliant stuff  across the site … who miscalculated a bit with his entry   heck, I almost missed putting mine in because I was too busy writing about how good the new Sponsor was!! lol …. therefore I want Smurf involved simply because it helps ASF.

Any way, my suggestion off the top of my head is this ……

1) Entries are due by 31st Dec as specified … however …
2) *Late entries *are accepted (say *4 weeks* from the initial closing date) with a *slight penalty depending on how late.*
3) Entry up to 1 week (7 days) late incur a *5%* total port folio penalty at the end of the comp.
4) Up to 2 weeks late incur a *10%* penalty
5) up to 3 weeks late incur an *15%* penalty 
6) Up to 4 weeks late a *20*% total port folio penalty.
7) Any Stock chosen late which has dropped is registered for the Comp at the 31st December SP
8) Any Stock chosen late which has risen is registered at the closing price SP on the day of entry. 

Obviously the above etc could possibly be fine tuned to work better with more input from others.

Also, apologies @peter2 if this makes everything more difficult to compute.

Another positive to the above is that new members who have just joined could still get involved in the Comp.

Thoughts Joe/Peter/others??​


----------



## Darc Knight (5 January 2019)

barney said:


> Ok … Further below I have another of my random suggestions … Bear in mind I'm only trying to help
> 
> The value that the yearly stock picking comp could add to @Joe Blow and the ASF site in traffic and postings etc *should not be underestimated …. The more entries the better full stop!! *
> 
> ...




I'm willing to give my entries to any late comers   A bigger dogs breakfast you haven't seen


----------



## barney (5 January 2019)

Darc Knight said:


> I'm willing to give my entries to any late comers   A bigger dogs breakfast you haven't seen




LOL …..  … Long time between now and 2020 DK


----------



## Sdajii (6 January 2019)

barney said:


> Ok … Further below I have another of my random suggestions … Bear in mind I'm only trying to help
> 
> The value that the yearly stock picking comp could add to @Joe Blow and the ASF site in traffic and postings etc *should not be underestimated …. The more entries the better full stop!! *
> 
> ...




This is just getting too complicated and sort of spits on the integrity of it. Changing rules after something has begun is very poor form. Shall we also have an entry at the end of June with a 50% penalty?

The first time the full year competition happened I missed out because as with many people it was a busy and chaotic time of year for me and it was started very late in the year, I missed out last year because I spent December 2017 incapacitated or in hospital and that was just unfortunate for me. This year I joined in. I definitely think it's worth putting more promotion into it earlier in the year rather than leaving it until that crazy time of the year when many people are too busy and distracted to notice, only to calm down after the silly season and see it just after they've missed out.


----------



## Logique (6 January 2019)

Has to be the same rules for everyone I guess. But I'd have no problem if the organizers chose to look the other way in Smurf's case, if he changes his mind and decides to enter.


----------



## explod (6 January 2019)

Perhaps run with the financial year when it can be sorted


----------



## So_Cynical (6 January 2019)

Im ok with Smurf as a one off, nice even 50 entrants then as well.


----------



## jbocker (6 January 2019)

Hate seeing people missing out, in particular in Smurfs case, a great contributor.
Maybe a LAST CALL. Enter tips you get the greater price: current price or 31 Dec 2018 price if prices have dropped. 
*BUT* *only with Peter2 and Joe (and sponsors?) blessing*. To whom I pass on my sincere thanks for running this competition and apologies for the inconvenience offered in supporting this suggestion.


----------



## Darc Knight (6 January 2019)

Last thing we want is a sad Smurf


----------



## SirRumpole (6 January 2019)

I'd like our protagonists in the "Education of an Investor" thread to have a go. 

Lay in on the line for the future instead of analysing the past.


----------



## systematic (6 January 2019)

December price for late entrant or current price if the stock has since gone up. 

I think I’ve suggested before...as long as you had the resources (ie those willing to manage it)...there’s no reason you can’t run overlapping annual comps. Start one in July. Or you could do quarterly. Or if that much interest , monthly.


----------



## barney (6 January 2019)

Sdajii said:


> This is just getting too complicated and sort of spits on the integrity of it. Changing rules after something has begun is very poor form. Shall we also have an entry at the end of June with a 50% penalty?
> 
> The first time the full year competition happened I missed out because as with many people it was a busy and chaotic time of year for me and it was started very late in the year, I missed out last year because I spent December 2017 incapacitated or in hospital and that was just unfortunate for me. This year I joined in. I definitely think it's worth putting more promotion into it earlier in the year rather than leaving it until that crazy time of the year when many people are too busy and distracted to notice, only to calm down after the silly season and see it just after they've missed out.




Yeah I understand your points Sdajii …… I missed out last year as well and agree the time of year can make it easy to miss with so much going on.  Last year I had no problem missing because I just "missed it" ….. 

My motivation for having a late entry clause this year is simply because Joe is looking for angles to get ASF back up to speed, and the Competition with what is pretty good prize money potentially gives him some advertising clout to utilise. 

I just think, being a *FREE* yearly Comp (if it were a paid entry Comp, that would be totally different), that any change to the Entry rules which benefits ASF in general should be considered. If a slight modification in rules brings in more participants I see that as a win to all of us in the long run. Cheers.

​


----------



## Sdajii (7 January 2019)

barney said:


> Yeah I understand your points Sdajii …… I missed out last year as well and agree the time of year can make it easy to miss with so much going on.  Last year I had no problem missing because I just "missed it" …..
> 
> My motivation for having a late entry clause this year is simply because Joe is looking for angles to get ASF back up to speed, and the Competition with what is pretty good prize money potentially gives him some advertising clout to utilise.
> 
> ...




At the end of the day I don't care what happens, I won't lose sleep over it either way, but spitting on the rules kills the integrity and cheapens the whole thing. I'd lose respect for the site if it was run that way. Others may see it differently, that wouldn't surprise me, this forum is indeed moving in the direction of 'let's all be happy and lovey and fluffy together and not worry about facts, figures, evidence and oh, yeah, this used to be a forum about stocks, economics and analysis and stuff, huh, how strange that is', but if that's what everyone wants that's fine. If it becomes a lefty safe place where everyone gets a prize for turning up I'm sure somewhere else will be happy to host more of a facts and figures style forum. I do like the history of this forum and would sort of like it to be what is was, but it will be what it becomes and accordingly I'll go to/stay wherever suits me.


----------



## Smurf1976 (7 January 2019)

Some interesting comments and I appreciate the thoughts of everyone. 

I do have a view that "rules are rules" however and would not wish to have any form of unfair advantage, however minor, over another participant in the competition given that an actual prize of financial value is on offer.

Please don't anyone take that negatively or as a lack of appreciation for the comments received. As some are aware through my comments on other threads, life has seen more than enough drama in recent times, so the positive thoughts are appreciated. I won't elaborate there beyond saying that the drama doesn't relate in any way to the energy industry.

If there's a rule then there's a rule however and it's my fault for assuming it was pick one stock and not reading the actual rules until the 31st and then not having enough time. That's my fault not anyone else's. I should have done it sooner.

It would be different if it was playing sport in the backyard with a few kids and we can rig the game so everyone gets a decent go hitting the ball. That's not a good idea when it's adults and there's real money involved however and I do think the rules as stated should be followed. In any contest, integrity is crucial.

I'll give it some further thought, and may post the stocks I would have entered, but I don't think I should be eligible to win for that reason. Rules are rules.


----------



## SirRumpole (7 January 2019)

Smurf1976 said:


> Some interesting comments and I appreciate the thoughts of everyone.
> 
> I do have a view that "rules are rules" however and would not wish to have any form of unfair advantage, however minor, over another participant in the competition given that an actual prize of financial value is on offer.
> 
> ...




Can we accept that Christmas / New Year is a busy and traumatic time (for various reasons) for everyone and that a lot of people may have overlooked this competition for various reasons and maybe the deadline should be pushed back untill Jan 31 to allow people to get back into stock market gear ?

If that is done, then maybe those who have already entered should be allowed to reconsider.


I got my entry in, but then I don't have a life.


----------



## Joe Blow (7 January 2019)

I'm interested in finding out how many people there are who wanted to enter the competition but failed to do so before the deadline. If you are one of those people could you please like this post so I can establish how much of an issue this actually is. I am aware of Smurf, but not aware of anyone else at this stage.

Alternatively you can contact me via PM and let me know.


----------



## barney (7 January 2019)

Sdajii said:


> *I do like the history of this forum and would sort of like it to be what is was*.




On that we agree ….. and that is all my suggestion in "refining the rules" was trying to achieve …. More players, more input, more conversation, more chance of the site returning to the days of progressive banter .... One step at a time.  

I see the Comp and the prize money as an advertising tool to entice new members and more input from old members, and advertising should be used to its best advantage. As soon as the Comp is closed for entries, *the advertising benefit is gone*.

Regarding *"spitting on the rules"* ….. Every Major Sporting body in the World are constantly refining their rule of play to try and make their games more appealing ….. more punters, more advertising dollars. Rules are rules I agree, but rules can always be refined and improved. 

"Spitting" infers someone is going to either get an unfair advantage or disadvantage by a rule change …. that is not the case with my suggestion!


----------



## barney (7 January 2019)

Joe Blow said:


> I'm interested in finding out how many people there are who wanted to enter the competition but failed to do so before the deadline. If you are one of those people could you please like this post so I can establish how much of an issue this actually is. I am aware of Smurf, but not aware of anyone else at this stage.
> 
> Alternatively you can contact me via PM and let me know.




Hi Joe … Unfortunately a lot of us Punters in cyber space need to be spoon fed …. I don't know how many members are on your register but I know its multiples of how many have entered the Comp.

Maybe an email should be sent to all members asking your above question:-

1) Did they know there was a yearly competition with substantial prize money on offer?
2) If they had the chance to get a late entry in would they be keen to do so?


----------



## Joe Blow (7 January 2019)

barney said:


> Hi Joe … Unfortunately a lot of us Punters in cyber space need to be spoon fed …. I don't know how many members are on your register but I know its multiples of how many have entered the Comp.
> 
> Maybe an email should be sent to all members asking your above question:-
> 
> ...




Hi Barney, I appreciate both points of view on this issue. There may be people who genuinely wanted to enter but due to the holidays during December failed to get their entry in. Then there are those who entered and feel it is unfair that the deadline be extended as there was a four week window of opportunity from the date the competition thread was started until the deadline which gave people plenty of time to throw their hat into the ring, especially given that this has been an annual event for a number of years now. Both points of view are valid and I understand them both.

At this stage I'm just trying to figure out if this is actually an issue and I'm not yet convinced that it is. Most people are back on deck by today and it is pretty difficult to miss this thread. It's been pretty difficult to miss it for the last month. If there is an issue it will become clear in the next day or so and I will assess the situation once I know more. Given the strong views on both sides of this issue I feel that's the best course of action.


----------



## barney (7 January 2019)

Joe Blow said:


> At this stage I'm just trying to figure out if this is actually an issue and I'm not yet convinced that it is.




All good Joe.  I don't think there is really a problem as such.  

It was just a random thought the other day which I thought might give you a bit more mileage out of those Sponsorship dollars  The fact that it is being discussed is probably doing that anyway Cheers.


----------



## Sdajii (7 January 2019)

barney said:


> On that we agree ….. and that is all my suggestion in "refining the rules" was trying to achieve …. More players, more input, more conversation, more chance of the site returning to the days of progressive banter .... One step at a time.
> 
> I see the Comp and the prize money as an advertising tool to entice new members and more input from old members, and advertising should be used to its best advantage. As soon as the Comp is closed for entries, *the advertising benefit is gone*.
> 
> ...




By all means refine the rules. Maybe the full year should start on February 1 or it should be financial year or whatever other rule everyone likes. I'm certainly not saying the rules should forever remain unchanged. Next year when the competition is announced perhaps a late entry with penalty option could be included (although that would probably be pretty lame). Looking at your sports example, they don't change the rules half way through a game, they change them for the next season, typically, or if within a season, they announce the change before the change and it's introduced into future games, not 'Oh, he missed the kick, let's give him another go'. That would piss off more fans than it would please and it would encourage the fan base to move in a 'we don't take this seriously and everyone gets a trophy for turning up' type base.

I for one would lose respect for the forum, less likely to take part next year and less inclined to check this forum now if it was moving in that direction.


----------



## Darc Knight (7 January 2019)

You're an ideas Man @barney , it's a great thing to have


----------



## barney (7 January 2019)

Sdajii said:


> By all means refine the rules. Maybe the full year should start on February 1 or it should be financial year or whatever other rule everyone likes. I'm certainly not saying the rules should forever remain unchanged.
> 
> I for one would lose respect for the forum, less likely to take part next year and less inclined to check this forum now if it was moving in that direction.




I totally understand your point of view Sdajii ….. and at this point in time, its probably the correct one. 

My post 147 above pretty much sums up the motive behind the original suggestion. I stand behind my motives, but accept that those same motives may not translate into a useful decision as well as they were intended. 

The only thing I'd still suggest is ….. If next year Joe is able to rustle up another substantial sponsorship amount ……. The advertising aspect of that should be exploited to its fullest potential ….. To the point of having the Competition advertised (Banner?) on the ASF login page and up and running at least 2 months before the Comp starts

Cheers all … back to my hole in the ground


----------



## PZ99 (7 January 2019)

My 2c > last year we started the comp on Sunday Jan 7th. Maybe start it on Jan 13th this year?


----------



## tinhat (8 January 2019)

Someone kindly pointed out to me that my choice of CZI doesn't satisfy the following rule


> No stocks that are trading at less than $0.10 on the day of entry may be entered.



Given that I have not made a valid entry I'm happy to withdraw from the competition. It is interesting that two stocks which I actually hold didn't qualify as stock pics (CZI, KZA).


----------



## So_Cynical (8 January 2019)

tinhat said:


> Someone kindly pointed out to me that my choice of CZI doesn't satisfy the following rule
> 
> Given that I have not made a valid entry I'm happy to withdraw from the competition. It is interesting that two stocks which I actually hold didn't qualify as stock pics (CZI, KZA).




CZI also doesn't met the 100K traded rule, i had to drop 3 stocks i wanted due to this.


----------



## tinhat (8 January 2019)

So_Cynical said:


> CZI also doesn't met the 100K traded rule, i had to drop 3 stocks i wanted due to this.




Yeah, I was pretty sure I checked my stocks against the rules. I probably got confused along the way.


----------



## Joe Blow (8 January 2019)

tinhat said:


> Someone kindly pointed out to me that my choice of CZI doesn't satisfy the following rule
> 
> Given that I have not made a valid entry I'm happy to withdraw from the competition. It is interesting that two stocks which I actually hold didn't qualify as stock pics (CZI, KZA).




tinhat, are you able to come up with a replacement stock for CZI?


----------



## luutzu (8 January 2019)

Joe Blow said:


> tinhat, are you able to come up with a replacement stock for CZI?




Hi Joe,

Peter2 kindly remind me my MDR was below the $0.1 to qualify.

Can I replace it with SIG?

So that's 

MRM
SIG
MND
STO

thanks Joe.

And thanks Peter2 and Explod for the correction


----------



## Joe Blow (8 January 2019)

luutzu said:


> Peter2 kindly remind me my MDR was below the $0.1 to qualify.
> 
> Can I replace it with SIG?




Yes you can. Consider it replaced.


----------



## Sdajii (8 January 2019)

Can I change some of my choices too since other people are changing theirs, and/or should I just deliberately choose stocks which don't qualify next year so that I can then use the excuse to choose stocks at a later and more strategic date?

Totally agree that advertising with a banner for a couple of months before the start may be a good idea, it may be worth starting at a later date, and either ask people to be careful to stick to the rules or maybe more appropriately, tell them that the rules don't really get stuck to anyway so don't take them seriously.


----------



## Joe Blow (8 January 2019)

Sdajii said:


> Can I change some of my choices too since other people are changing theirs, and/or should I just deliberately choose stocks which don't qualify next year so that I can then use the excuse to choose stocks at a later and more strategic date?




I think these were honest mistakes that are only coming to light after @peter2 has gone through and checked all the entries. We're still only eight days (and five trading days) into 2019, any price fluctuation that occurs now will have no material impact on the final result. 



Sdajii said:


> Totally agree that advertising with a banner for a couple of months before the start may be a good idea, it may be worth starting at a later date, and either ask people to be careful to stick to the rules or maybe more appropriately, tell them that the rules don't really get stuck to anyway so don't take them seriously.




I think it's fair to say that I've made a few unfortunate errors in the organisation of the competition so I'm prepared to cop most of the blame here. Like most people, I had numerous family commitments over Christmas and I should have been paying closer attention to the entry process (i.e. checking every entry as they came in). Needless to say I've learned a lot and won't make the same mistakes next year.


----------



## Sdajii (8 January 2019)

If you're not going to stick to the rules anyway, and no one is accountable for checking their own entries (I probably shouldn't have bothered checking my choices fulfilled the requirements; waiting for someone else is easier and if they're slack you even get a reward for your own laziness around here!  Stupid me for bothering) you might as well let Smurf join. Smurf didn't join because he didn't have time to do it properly, as opposed to the people who just didn't care about doing it properly. Letting people who made invalid entries change now makes less sense than letting Smurf (or anyone else) in. If you're going to make changes now, the most sensible thing to do (other than just sticking to the rules as set which is the only right thing to do) is to let everyone rechoose at this point and anyone who wants to can enter until a final cutoff point.


----------



## Joe Blow (8 January 2019)

For those changing because they selected stocks that didn't qualify I think the entry price on the changed stocks should be the closing price on the day they were changed. That way the first five trading days of the year will have no impact whatsoever.

I have no problem if Smurf joins the competition on the same basis.


----------



## Darc Knight (8 January 2019)

Gotta give Sdajii credit, he's a character!


----------



## Tumbarumba (8 January 2019)

Sdajii may have lost the battle, but his passion if not his viewpoint has won my admiration!


----------



## Joe Blow (8 January 2019)

For me this isn't a battle, just a problem that needed to be solved. I hope that adjusted entry prices for those who have had to replace one of their stocks is a reasonable solution to that problem.


----------



## barney (8 January 2019)

Darc Knight said:


> Gotta give Sdajii credit, he's a character!




Agree DK .... Even though @Sdajii was giving me a bit of stick …  different points of view are the life blood of a working Forum and a small amount of friction is perfectly healthy as long as there is mutual respect shown by those throwing the punches …..


----------



## Darc Knight (8 January 2019)

barney said:


> Agree DK .... Even though @Sdajii was giving me a bit of stick …  different points of view are the life blood of a working Forum and a small amount of friction is perfectly healthy as long as there is mutual respect shown by those throwing the punches …..




^This should go in @Skate 's thread. Words of wisdom indeed


----------



## barney (8 January 2019)

Joe Blow said:


> For me this isn't a battle, just a problem that needed to be solved. I hope that adjusted entry prices for those who have had to replace one of their stocks is a reasonable solution to that problem.




Interestingly enough Joe …… part of my original suggestion regarding late entries … apart from including a "penalty" option, ….. also had the suggestion that:-

A Stock chosen as a late entry should be instated at the Price of either 31st December (*if the SP is now higher*), or, *at its current SP* (if it is now *higher than it was at 31st Dec*)

That way the punters who are late are not gaining any "unfair" advantage over those who got their entries in early. More to follow 
PS Problems with my browser at present … if this post goes crazy forgive me


----------



## barney (8 January 2019)

Darc Knight said:


> ^This should go in @Skate 's thread. Words of wisdom indeed




Thanks DK ….. you are far too kind


----------



## Joe Blow (8 January 2019)

barney said:


> Interestingly enough Joe …… part of my original suggestion regarding late entries … apart from including a "penalty" option, ….. also had the suggestion that:-
> 
> A Stock chosen as a late entry should be instated at the Price of either 31st December (*if the SP is now higher*), or, *at its current SP* (if it is now *higher than it was at 31st Dec*)
> 
> ...




It's a good idea. I think systematic also suggested something similar. I was open to the idea of doing something for those who didn't get their entries in by the deadline but nobody contacted or notified me when I asked them to a little earlier in the thread. I was contacted privately by a couple of people, one who was very much against the idea of extending the deadline (not Sdajii) and one who was ambivalent but supportive.

However, I think the adjusted entry prices for those who entered stocks that didn't qualify is a good compromise. I certainly didn't anticipate this much drama over the competition.


----------



## barney (8 January 2019)

Joe Blow said:


> However, I think the adjusted entry prices for those who entered stocks that didn't qualify is a good compromise. *I certainly didn't anticipate this much drama over the competition*.




LOL … that's what happens when money becomes involved Joe 

My apologies if I've inadvertently caused some of that drama

On the flip side … the Thread has been busy


----------



## Sdajii (9 January 2019)

Tumbarumba said:


> Sdajii may have lost the battle, but his passion if not his viewpoint has won my admiration!




I don't see it as a battle. I gave my 2c, it wasn't taken, I think the forum is the loser. It doesn't really matter to me (unless in the extraordinarily unlikely event that I get beaten by someone who got an unfair advantage, and I otherwise would have won, which I didn't even consider until just now when you said I'd 'lost'. It's hardly gone unnoticed or unspoken about that this forum is moving in a direction most people don't seem to want, and I think there are many obvious reasons for it, this isn't a particularly big or important one, but it's part of the overall attitude of the forum which has been guiding it to where it is and on the heading it's on.


----------



## Logique (9 January 2019)

Joe Blow said:


> .. I certainly didn't anticipate this much drama over the competition.



Could be a turbulent year in the tipping comp, with a stewards inquiry before it's even started


----------



## Parse (9 January 2019)

Still a good point was made for next year. If the competition entry is started earlier, like a couple of months or more then it is quite possible someone could put in an entry say late November, then we get a large market fluctuation or something happens to a particular stock that was picked - suspension or a long trading halt or something, then all of a sudden that pick doesn't qualify by the rules - lack of trading in the last week or whatever.

So if the competition starts earlier then some sort of rule should be added on allowing a change if the criteria isn't met by a particular stock on Dec 31st.


----------



## PZ99 (9 January 2019)

This tipping comp is turning into an enterprise bargaining agreement with a log of claims.

The Australian Govt will shut down as a result of this


----------



## Darc Knight (9 January 2019)

Some companies pay a fortune for this kinda promotion. Don King is an amatuer compared to Sdajii 

It's like one of those Boxing weigh ins, where the two Boxers push, shove and trash talk to promote the fight


----------



## barney (9 January 2019)

Darc Knight said:


> Some companies pay a fortune for this kinda promotion. Don King is an amatuer compared to Sdajii
> 
> It's like one of those Boxing weigh ins, where the two Boxers push, shove and trash talk to promote the fight






It appears to be a cunning plan


----------



## tinhat (9 January 2019)

Joe Blow said:


> tinhat, are you able to come up with a replacement stock for CZI?




Hi Jo, my replacement for CZI is CGL, Citadel Group Ltd.

31 Dec close: $7.27
8 Jan (yesterday) close: $7.38
today open: $7.42

Please use whatever price you deem appropriate. As stated earlier, I am happy to have my entry withdrawn. You decide.


----------



## tech/a (10 January 2019)

Pete
I presume you canned my DNA pick as it didn't trade at 10c
and substituted PEX


----------



## So_Cynical (14 January 2019)

January 14 and i have 4 stocks in the green and im up about 14%  
let Smurf in with Barneys rules....the big prize money has been a hoot.


----------



## peter2 (31 January 2019)

End of January and the 2019 CY comp is off and running.

Don't rush me, I have to wait for the closing auction to settle and then another 20 min to account for the price delay. It'll take me approx an hour to enter the data and format it nicely for you all to see.

I know a few of you are on the edge of your seats waiting with anticipation. It would be better to use the time wisely.


----------



## barney (31 January 2019)

peter2 said:


> *It'll take me approx an hour to enter the data* and format it nicely for you all to see.




Your precision and attention to detail is much appreciated by all and sundry I expect Pete. Thanks for your input/extra work.


----------



## peter2 (31 January 2019)

peter2 said:


> It'll take me approx an hour to enter the data and format it nicely for you all to see.




VALE @pixel. It would have taken him 10 minutes.


----------



## peter2 (31 January 2019)

First chance for me to say this. The average stock selector at ASF is better than the market. 

In Jan19 the market index rose *+4.0%*, the average performance of the 50 competitors was *+7.1%*. 

Yeah us and yes we got lucky.    Drum roll please .....


----------



## explod (31 January 2019)

Buuroooooom baaaarooom bangity bang and a pop, 

yeeeehaaaaaaarr Peter2


----------



## peter2 (31 January 2019)

CY 2019  Progress at the end of January.    XAO index +4.0% 

_Leader_: *Iggy_Pop* *+67%*  (BKY, RVA)

_2nd_: *myrtie100* *+26%*  (NEA)

_3rd_: *bigdog* *+22%* 

_Honorable mentions (>10%/mth_):
*leyy, tinhat, Wyatt, Sdajii, aus_trader, explod, Logique, TOBY, Parse, kid_hustlr, barney*

_Competitors with 5/5 positive_: 
*Iggy_Pop, myrtie100, bigdog, tinhat, Wyatt, Logique, TOBY, kid_hustlr, ah13, sasch, *

_Competitors beating the index:_ 32 (*64%*)


----------



## peter2 (31 January 2019)

Congrats to @Iggy_Pop for the inspired selection of BKY. 
Hope the development of the U308 mine (Spain) proceeds well for them and you. 

Special congrats to @myrtie100 for a good batch of selections after an inglorious 2018. 

@bigdog is near the lead again this year. 

Gold stocks gained +12% this month. Can it @explod and @Logique keep buying it? 

@Sdajii , SEA (33%) I know you wanted to hold SEA x 4, but rules are rules. 
(btw @Parse  also selected it)


----------



## myrtie100 (31 January 2019)

Woo hoo!!!
Yes @peter2   I really should do better this year - the only way is up 
Thanks for doing such a great job recording this comp.


----------



## Sdajii (1 February 2019)

peter2 said:


> @Sdajii , SEA (33%) I know you wanted to hold SEA x 4, but rules are rules.
> (btw @Parse  also selected it)




Hahaha!!! I probably would have, but it still would have only put me in second place at this stage! Very interesting to see the January results, thank you for taking the time to do this, and for the brilliant commentary


----------



## Knobby22 (1 February 2019)

there's many a slip twixt cup and lip


----------



## barney (1 February 2019)

Knobby22 said:


> there's many a slip twixt cup and lip




Indeed!!


----------



## basilio (2 February 2019)

*Ok Excellent.. Just brilliant,  I can see I am clearly leading the ASF field.*

(just not at the current right end.. )


----------



## barney (2 February 2019)

basilio said:


> *Ok Excellent.. Just brilliant,  I can see I am clearly leading the ASF field.*
> 
> (just not at the current right end.. )




Lol …


----------



## peter2 (4 February 2019)

Top 10 stock selected in 2019 CY Comp (Jan19)


----------



## peter2 (28 February 2019)

New leader in the yearly comp, but *they'll* have to wait a bit longer for the results to be formatted.

edit: PC


----------



## peter2 (28 February 2019)

CY 2019 Progress at the end of February. XAO index +10% 

_Leader:_ *myrtie100* *+52%*

_2nd:_ *Iggy_Pop* *+51.9%*

_3rd:_ *Lincoln Indicators* *+45%*

_Honorable mentions (>15%/mth):_
*Lincoln Indicators +27%, myrtie100, trillionaire#1 +26%, rcm617 +22%, Wyatt +17%, 
noira, luutzu +15%*

_Competitors with 5/5 positive: _
*myrtie100, Iggy_Pop, Lincoln Ind, bigdog, Wyatt, barney, rcm617, kid_hustlr, luutzu, 
ah13, sptrawler, PZ99, sasch, TLS, *

_Competitors beating the index:_ *27* (54%)


----------



## barney (28 February 2019)

Thanks @peter2  for the update

Have to say …. well done to @bigdog with the 31% ….Most of us have picked minnows but Bigdog has picked some heavy hitters which is harder to get % increases on ….. happy with my minnows howeverlol.


----------



## myrtie100 (28 February 2019)

I'm glad you didn't lose this spreadsheet Peter 
And BTW what's wrong with using the word "she'll"?


----------



## peter2 (28 February 2019)

I did lose the spreadsheet and spent two hours last night re-creating it from the pic in last months post. 

However today, I did recover my personal spreadsheets including the ASF40Pos xls. 

I put ASF before everything else.


----------



## barney (28 February 2019)

peter2 said:


> I did lose the spreadsheet and spent two hours last night re-creating it from the pic in last months post.
> 
> However today, I did recover my personal spreadsheets including the ASF40Pos xls.
> 
> *I put ASF before everything else*.




Lol …… Joseph (still formal) of course knows this …… I suspect even he may suggest you "get a life" if you believe this is correct

Thanks for your input Pete


----------



## Miner (1 March 2019)

Admin of this thread!
If I am allowed late entry then my tips (in alphabatical order) for 2019 are :
*CVN, FAR*, HZR, MAH, *MLX, NML*, NUH, TLX, WAF, *TLX*.
If only 5 are to be considered then the highlighted ones.


----------



## leyy (1 March 2019)

hi peter2,

thanks for taking the time to update and maintain this comp.

I notice that lincoln indicators and I both have APX as a stock at two different prices $12.4 and $12.83

Are you able to check which one is correct?

Thanks
leyy


----------



## peter2 (2 March 2019)

@leyy Thanks for noticing that.  I've modified both Dec 31st prices of APX to 12.83. 
I also see that the closing price of APX is a little different as well. This happens because I'm so keen to process the results that I don't wait for the final closing prices and late post market adjustments do change some prices. 

Hasn't APX been on a tear (along with ALU, WTC, APT all of which you shrewdly selected). These tech companies are on fire. Why did you throw in FOD?  FOD has 10 months to turnaround.


----------



## Sdajii (3 March 2019)

Thanks again for taking the time to provide the update! Well done to everyone beating the index and especially those ranking highest, including the ones who overtook me in February 

Sorry to be a pain, but would you be able to spell my name correctly?


----------



## $20shoes (3 March 2019)

Yep great work, Peter. 
BBUS is really hurting me...outside of my typical trading rules I surprised myself that I can still take my emotions at the time and project them forward for a doomsday scenario. Must check that! 
Maybe Christmas rallies are like Melbourne summers now - January to March.


----------



## peter2 (3 March 2019)

@$20shoes  BBUS could be partial offset or partial hedge. It hurts you in bull markets but will help you in bear markets.

@Sdajii  Thank you for the correction.


----------



## leyy (4 March 2019)

peter2 said:


> @leyy Thanks for noticing that.  I've modified both Dec 31st prices of APX to 12.83.
> I also see that the closing price of APX is a little different as well. This happens because I'm so keen to process the results that I don't wait for the final closing prices and late post market adjustments do change some prices.
> 
> Hasn't APX been on a tear (along with ALU, WTC, APT all of which you shrewdly selected). These tech companies are on fire. Why did you throw in FOD?  FOD has 10 months to turnaround.




FOD was my speculative stock, hasn't been a great performer 

I thought it had good prospects with the China expansion.


----------



## Knobby22 (29 March 2019)

Did well this month, three good ones, one dud (come on Star Pharma).
Keen to see.


----------



## peter2 (29 March 2019)

CY 2019 Progress at the end of March. XAO index, steady at *+9.7%* 

_Leader:_ *myrtie100* *+60%*

_2nd:_ *bigdog* *+44%*

_3rd:_ *Iggy_Pop* *+43*

_Honorable mentions (>10%/mth):_
*noira* +20%, *Logique* +17%, *kid_hustlr* +15%, *bigdog, leyy* +13%, *Cam019* +11%

_Competitors with 5/5 positive: (12)_
*myrtie100, bigdog, Iggy_Pop, kid_hustlr, Trav, Wyatt, rcm617, Sdajii, sptrawler, ah13, tinhat, PZ99 *

_Competitors beating the index:_ 29/50 (*58%*)


----------



## peter2 (29 March 2019)

Top 10 stocks:


----------



## Logique (31 March 2019)

Thanks Peter, appreciate your hard work on this


----------



## peter2 (29 April 2019)

Almost the end of another month. 
The only question we want to know is, Did @verce select TNY in his CY2019 selections?


----------



## verce (29 April 2019)

I wish I had. 

If it's not too late - can I submit TNY for CY2019 Joe?

Also, if you can backdate it, that would be even more greatly appreciated! 

Cheers,


----------



## peter2 (30 April 2019)

APRIL 19 has been a good month for a lot of competitors. There's been a lot of shuffling in the deck behind last months leader. "Big blue" is sorting and reformatting as I type.


----------



## peter2 (30 April 2019)

CY 2019 Progress at the end of April. XAO index +2.7% to *+12.4%* 

_Leader_: *myrtie100* *+81%*

_2nd:_ *bigdog* *+59%*

_3rd:_ *aus_trader* *+54%*

_Honorable mentions (>15%/mth)_: 
*aus_trader* +27% (Z1P), *willy1111* +25%(JIN), *myrtie100* +21%(NEA,APT), *knobby22* +19%(APT), *verce* +15%(APT),

_Competitors with 5/5 positive:_ (11)
*myrtie100, bigdog, Iggy_Pop, kid_hustlr, Wyatt, 
rcm617, PZ99, knobby22, jbocker, Parse, TLS,*

_Competitors beating the index:_ 26/50 (52%)
_# Competitors positive:_ 39/50 (78%)


----------



## peter2 (30 April 2019)

Top stocks in CY2019 comp so far. . .


----------



## Knobby22 (30 April 2019)

Zip is going better than I thought it would,  real winner.
Nearmap has stunned me, I thought it already was fully priced. Well done myrtle.


----------



## aus_trader (30 April 2019)

Knobby22 said:


> Zip is going better than I thought it would,  real winner.
> Nearmap has stunned me, I thought it already was fully priced. Well done myrtle.



I am glad to be in the top position for now, not sure which stock may overtake it as there is plenty of time to go.

I was pretty happy tipping Zip Co Ltd (*Z1P*) as the underdog of the online BNPL (Buy Now Pay Later) companies led by Afterpay Touch Group Ltd (*APT*). Since then Z1P has done better than my expectations to hit the 1bn market cap at current prices, so I think it's underdog days are over and it's become a large cap stock. It could go higher if it continues to grab market share in the online payment processing space...

I've held NEA in the past, but also totally missed this massive run since the start of the year


----------



## myrtie100 (30 April 2019)

Woohoo!
And I'm very happy to be holding both NEA and APT in my mechanical system since December


----------



## kid hustlr (30 April 2019)

Thanks for your efforts Peter. Tough comp this year so far some incredible results out there!


----------



## peter2 (29 May 2019)

Almost the end of May. The best stocks keep going up. The terms overbought and overvalued are meaningless to the best performers. Half a dozen members are sitting near 50% of profits after only five months. The top 3 may change again this month, but there's one person sitting on high, digging a large moat around her castle.


----------



## PZ99 (30 May 2019)

I'll take a hit as the banks pay their divvies


----------



## peter2 (31 May 2019)

CY 2019 Progress at the end of May.    XAO index +1.4% to *+13.7%* 

_Leader:_ *myrtie100* *+91%*

_2nd:_ *leyy* *+52%*

_3rd:_ *aus_trader* *+46%*

_Honorable mentions (>15%/mth):_ 
*Logique* +22% (RMS), *systematic* +20%(PET), *peter2* +18%(PET),

_Competitors with 5/5 positive:_ (10)
*myrtie100, Lincoln Ind, willy1111, bigdog, Trav, Logique, rcm617, jbocker, PZ99, TLS*

_# Competitors positive:_ 40/50 (80%)
_Competitors beating the index:_ 24/50 (48%)


----------



## peter2 (31 May 2019)

The last three days of May knocked a lot of froth from our portfolios. As the froth settled, the places remain the same. Unbelievable, two days ago the placings were different. Our leader, *Myrtie100* has a sizable gap on the field. Nicely done. Is it unbeatable? Much too early to say as there's a few back in the pack leaping up many places. 

_Observation:_  Gold prices have been all over the place this year (trendless) and it shows in the performances of the ASX gold stocks. If you look at the comp pic I've placed a golden sheen in the background of the members that selected a golden portfolio (*noira, Logique, barney, explod, qldfrog*). These gold batches are all over the place *noira* is +40% while *qldfrog* is -3%. Not all gold producers are equal it seems.


----------



## peter2 (28 June 2019)

Well, did the late EOFY selling in APT and others affect the placing in the yearly comp?
Has the rising price of gold boosted the value of the gold bugs?
[SLR +57% in June]

I'll collate the results later this evening.


----------



## peter2 (28 June 2019)

CY 2019 Progress at the end of June: XAO index +3.6% to +17.3% 

_Leader:_ @*myrtie100* *+93%*

_2nd:_ @*$20shoes* *+73%*

_3rd:_ @*leyy  +59%*

_Honorable mentions (>15%):_
*$20shoes* +44% (SLR, PNV), *sasch* +22%(SLR), *barney* +19%(SLR), *greggles* +18%(SLR),
*Trav.* +16%(PNV), 

_Competitors with 5/5 positive:_ (8)
*myrtie100, Lincoln Ind, bigdog, jbocker, kid_hustlr, rcm617, PZ99, TLS, *

_Competitors positive:_ 38/50 (76%)

_Competitors beating the index:_ 24/50 (48%)


----------



## peter2 (11 July 2019)

Would the leaders please move to the side of the road so that a couple of PETs can overtake.


----------



## myrtie100 (11 July 2019)

Oh, that can't last


----------



## peter2 (29 July 2019)

Wow, only two trading days left in July and it's *really* close at the top. 

The top three are within 1% of each other now and there's plenty about 10% away.


----------



## barney (29 July 2019)

peter2 said:


> Wow, only two trading days left in July and it's *really* close at the top.
> 
> The top three are within 1% of each other now and there's plenty about 10% away.





I just don't understand why I'm not winning …. The comp is obviously rigged

Oh …. hang on ….. I picked the wrong Stocks …

Can't possibly be my fault … who can I blame (mumble mumble … crap/suitable expletive etc


----------



## peter2 (31 July 2019)

Wow, there's been some huge moves this month. The cutoff for honorable mentions is +20% this month. Considered making it +50% but that would be showing off.  

The PET lovers have moved up considerably. Gold bugs did well. 

The field is bunching up behind the leaders.


----------



## peter2 (31 July 2019)

*CY 2019 Progress at the end of July*: XAO index +3.5 to +20.8% 

_Leader_: @myrtie100 *+88%*

_2nd:_ @systematic *+85%*

_3rd:_ @noirua  +*79%*

_Honorable mentions (>20%)_:
*systematic* +59% (PET), *Peter2* +50% (PET), *noirua* +35%(RMS), *Triple B* +27% (DRO), 
*kid_hustlr* +23%( all 4), *explod* +22%(RMS), *Logique* +21%(RMS), *trillionaire#1* +21%(GOR), *bigdog* +20(all 4), 

_Competitors with 5/5 positive:_ (14)
*myrtie100, Lincoln Ind, noirua, bigdog, willy111, kid_hustlr, jbocker, rcm617, DarcKnight, Triple B, Tumbarumba, luutzu, PZ99, TLS, *

_Competitors positive:_ 41/50 (*82%*)
*Either we're good or it's a bull market. *

_Competitors beating the index:_ 28/50 (*56%*)   *nah, we're good


*
@noirua  Apologies for misspelling your handle.


----------



## tech/a (31 July 2019)

Not one of mine in profit
That’s hard to do!


----------



## myrtie100 (31 July 2019)

Gosh it is getting tight at the top!
Three of us in the 80s.
Poor old Lincoln has been left off...


----------



## jbocker (31 July 2019)

tech/a said:


> Not one of mine in profit
> That’s hard to do!



Not that hard to do.
I simply just put money on them and wahlaaa they show up as (I mean on my) unprofitable sheet.


----------



## peter2 (31 July 2019)

At close yesterday there were three within 1% at the top. EOM selling saw two of them fall away leaving the "cream" on top. 

"Lincoln Indicators" has done a good job this year selecting four great growth stocks. 
Of course you know why LI is not on the leader board. Guests are ineligible for the prize money. 




_Most number of top10 selections:_ *two
myrtie100 (1st), noirua (4th), $20shoes (5th)*, *leyy (7th)*, *barney (9th)*


----------



## myrtie100 (31 July 2019)

Oh duh!  I just had another Homer moment..
I thought Lincoln was a person


----------



## barney (1 August 2019)

myrtie100 said:


> Oh duh!  I just had another Homer moment..
> I thought Lincoln was a person




Leading the comp you can do or think anything you like

ps. I also thought … who is this Lincoln dude


----------



## Logique (2 August 2019)

Can we have a recount for gold highlight entrants Peter  

Gold stocks surging today!


----------



## peter2 (7 August 2019)

Interesting, seems the froth at the top is settling.


----------



## myrtie100 (7 August 2019)

Oh, I actually need a 'dislike' button


----------



## peter2 (7 August 2019)

It's going to be interesting to see if the demand for the ASX tech stocks returns. 

Please overlook the incorrect "new" ranking as the numbers are changing very quickly. This is great as it means most of us still have a chance at the prize money.


----------



## kid hustlr (7 August 2019)

Lol what a great thread - incredible what can happen to these high growth high performing stocks when people want out.

Ty Peter


----------



## barney (7 August 2019)

peter2 said:


> This is great as it means* most of us still have a chance* at the prize money.




Are you open to bribery Pete … I need the cash


----------



## peter2 (28 August 2019)

I'm aware that there will be a few members anxious to see the August update to our yearly comp. Unfortunately this months update won't be posted as quickly as usual (1hr after the close). I'll be away from the "office" at the EOM. I hope to post it over the week-end or as quickly as I can.


----------



## peter2 (31 August 2019)

After a very volatile August we have a new leader, but the ex- leader is not far away (2nd). 
The pack is bunching up with the top seven within 10%. 
Gold is trying to catch up to the tech sector. 
The PET lovers are looking for another burst before the EOY.
---------
*CY 2019 Progress at the end of July*: XAO index -2.7% to *+17.3%* 

_Leader:_ @$20shoes *+81%*

_2nd:_ @myrtie100 *+78%*

_3rd:_ @leyy *+78%*

_Honorable mentions_ (>15%):
*Wyatt *+20% (PNV),* Trav *+17% (PNV),* willy111 *+16% (JIN),* debtfree *+15% (HE8)

_Competitors with 5/5 positive:_ (10)
*myrtie100, Lincoln Ind, barney, bigdog, Tumbarumba, kid_hustlr, Triple B, luutzu, PZ99, TLS, *

_Competitors positive:_ 39/50 (*78%*)

_Competitors beating the index:_ 28/50 (*56%*)


----------



## $20shoes (31 August 2019)

Thanks for the update Pete.  Humbled to lead the pack too. PNV has been the bulk of my gain. It goes to show if you catch an outlier it can really skew your results in a very positive way. 
I've traded pnv a couple of times this year and managed to make some decent coin.


----------



## Triple B (20 September 2019)

poor old duck getting smashed!! No Stop losses will hurt ya


----------



## tech/a (20 September 2019)

It takes a real talent to have 4 clear losers !
No one else has managed it.

8 have 4 winning trades 
So that’s a great deal easier obviously.


----------



## barney (21 September 2019)

tech/a said:


> It takes a real talent to have 4 clear losers !
> No one else has managed it.




Luxury!!    (sorry, just reminded me of Monty Python)


https://www.bing.com/videos/search?...EFB2C61E68A6EC8171D5EFB2C61E68A6EC8&FORM=VIRE


----------



## peter2 (30 September 2019)

It's the end of Sept 19 and there's been big changes at the top of the board. 
None of last month's top 3 are in the current top 3. 

Those who selected BAL (Bellamy's) have jumped back into contention. 

I'm transferring the EOM processing to my new computer.


----------



## peter2 (30 September 2019)

Congratulations to our new leaders. 
The rest of the pack are on your heels and there's only three months to go. 
-------------------------

*CY 2019 Progress at the end of September*: XAO index +1.5  to *+19.1%*

_Leader:_ @Wyatt *+86%*

_2nd:_ @willy1111 *+83%*

_3rd:_ @aus_trader *+80%*

_Honorable mentions (>15%):_
*kid_hustlr +29% (BAL, CLV), aus_trader +27% (Z1P), bigdog +27% (BAL), Knobby22 +25% (MSB), Wysiwyg +15% (EMV)*

_Competitors with 5/5 positive:_ (11)
*myrtie100, bigdog, kid_hustlr, Lincoln Ind, barney, Tumbarumba, DarcKnight, Triple B, luutzu, PZ99, TLS*

_Competitors positive:_ 40/50 (80%)

_Competitors beating the index:_ 25/50 (50%)


----------



## kid hustlr (30 September 2019)

Ty as always Pete.

These buy now pay later stocks are killing this comp!!


----------



## myrtie100 (9 October 2019)

I think one of my picks went up 60% today


----------



## aus_trader (9 October 2019)

myrtie100 said:


> I think one of my picks went up 60% today



I think you are right myrtie100, the biggest gainer on the ASX today. Well done picking this pharma/biotech play.


----------



## peter2 (10 October 2019)

@myrtie100 , looks like the cat got the cream. I'm waiting for the huge EOY boost for my PET.



Don't mention the 1st BB that I missed while away.


----------



## peter2 (10 October 2019)

The top 5 from the end of Sept are currently (10/10/19). . . 


	

		
			
		

		
	
  swapping places.


----------



## peter2 (18 October 2019)

Market darlings are being sold off. The sky is falling (it's October).  
CUV down, APT down and now PET down. _Arrgh, my precious._


----------



## peter2 (30 October 2019)

Well, my chances this year are gone. My little smokey (MMJ) has literally gone up in smoke as the new year's irrational exuberance around cannabis stocks dissipates.


----------



## aus_trader (31 October 2019)

I am still hopeful... despite the sell off in my top performing stock Z1P !

A rally in Oil (for BPT) or Gold (c'mon AMI you've been going against the Gold trend !) should get me near the finish line.

What's this... FOD is rising again. I've pretty much given up on it


----------



## peter2 (31 October 2019)

_Congratulations to our leaders. It's very tight at the top. 
If it's this close at the EOY I'll include dividends paid. 

With only two months left the comp is all about preservation of portfolio value. More people went down than up last month. 
Unluckiest participants systematic (-29%), peter2 (-26%) who both hold PET, MMJ. _
-------------------------

*CY 2019 Progress at the end of October*: 
XAO index down a little to end at *+18.6%*

_Leader:_ @$20shoes *+90%*

_2nd:_ @Wyatt *+89%*

_3rd:_ @willy1111 *+80%*

_Honorable mentions (>10%):_
*Wysiwyg* +15%(EMV), *$20shoes* +13%(SLR, PNV), *noira* +10% (SLR), *sasch* +10%(SLR),

_Competitors with 5/5 positive: (10)_
*myrtie100, bigdog, Lincoln Indicators, kid_hustlr, Tumbarumba, Triple B, DarcKnight, luutzu, PZ99, TLS, *

_Competitors positive:_ 41/50 (*82%*)           _Competitors beating the index:_ 27/50 (*54%*)


----------



## kid hustlr (31 October 2019)

I tell you what I'm in this I reckon.

My 'road to victory':

- The mkt keeps hammering the buy now pay laters
- Jin & PNV fall

The leaders must be getting twitchy!!!


----------



## myrtie100 (31 October 2019)

Yes @kid hustlr I agree, except APT  and SLR needs to fall off a cliff!
And CUV, well really - what the???


----------



## Logique (1 November 2019)

Good work by you again Peter2. 

Strong tipping group, wow. So many that are comfortably beating the index!

Stewards inquiry, tech/a


----------



## systematic (1 November 2019)

peter2 said:


> _Unluckiest participants systematic (-29%), peter2 (-26%) who both hold PET, MMJ. _




lol, can they rally at the last turn into the straight?


----------



## So_Cynical (1 November 2019)

Logique said:


> Good work by you again Peter2.
> 
> Strong tipping group, wow. So many that are comfortably beating the index!
> 
> Stewards inquiry, tech/a




Rougfully half of us beating the index, i wonder if taken as a bunch and averaged how are we doing collectively? way out in front i would guess.


----------



## Knobby22 (1 November 2019)

I'm annoyed about Polynovo.
I owned them in December but wasn't as confident then. I also almost picked MPV.
Should coulda woulda. Still reckon MSB will take off soon but it won't be enough.
SPL Starpharma needs to come good in a big way which I can't see happening.


----------



## peter2 (1 November 2019)

So_Cynical said:


> Rougfully half of us beating the index, i wonder if taken as a bunch and averaged how are we doing collectively? way out in front i would guess.




Monthly averages of all fifty participants in this years CY comp vs XAO index.


----------



## peter2 (1 November 2019)

Top 10 stock selections at end of Oct 19.


----------



## barney (1 November 2019)

Logique said:


> Good work by you again Peter2. …...
> Stewards inquiry, tech/a




LOL  … out of time at the moment … but I will be back to this thread sometime soon … 

Thanks @peter2 for your input

and come on @tech/a  …. what the hell were you thinking getting involved in a "long term" tipping competition    Just because you are a legend "short termer" (technical genius) doesn't mean you can come over here and take down some of the fundy only or fundy/techno gurus on their own turf ..... 

Horses for courses as we know, and Tech, you are a 1000 metre Sprinter … stay away from the Melbourne Cup 

ps I bet you pick it this year after I've sold you out


----------



## tech/a (1 November 2019)

If you have a chat with Joe you will see how appropriate my position is!


----------



## barney (1 November 2019)

tech/a said:


> If you have a chat with Joe you will see how appropriate my position is!




Probably best to speak cryptically to protect the naughty 

Even without talking to Joe, if you return to my earlier post 84, you will see I was perhaps 'on the pulse' fairly early in the peace … and I trust all will be revealed when appropriate

I'm sure you now realise my false "irreverence" is tainted with reverent respect


----------



## peter2 (22 November 2019)

Things are moving in the CY19 comp. One week to go before the end of Nov19.
Here are the top five from Oct19. They may or not be the top five at the EOM.


----------



## myrtie100 (22 November 2019)

Oooh yes!
Go Polynovo, go.......down


----------



## frugal.rock (22 November 2019)

So, if it ends like this, $20shoes gets the prize and a name change to $38shoes, correct? 
Is it too late to enter? I only joined the foraging forum in May... tongue in cheek.
Is the 2020 comp open for entres yet?
F.Rock


----------



## peter2 (22 November 2019)

That's a timely question and a good prompt to @Joe Blow to consider when to open the entries for the CY2020 comp. 

Last year the comp opened a little too late and many of the members were on holidays and didn't get to enter before the close (Jan 1st). Also, there was little time to check that the entries complied with the modified rules and replacements notified before the start.


----------



## peter2 (29 November 2019)

The markets have closed on the last trading day of November 2019. 
Don't rush me. I've got to wait for the 20min delayed data on the ASX.com site, pour a refreshing drink and get some bickies before I start. 

You're all very lucky that my nbn transfer went so well. Otherwise the wait would have been much longer. 

It's almost time to open up the spreadsheet and get started.


----------



## peter2 (29 November 2019)

_XAO has surged (+2.6%) to new highs and closing above last month doji (bullish indicator). 

However, the ASF membership hasn't done as well this month. Our monthly group average fell. 
The rally has not included the banks and small caps, but has included prior growth stocks. 

This means that prior competition leaders have surged back into the lead. 
Congratulations to our new, former comp leader._

---------
*CY 2019 Progress at the end of November*: XAO index +2.6% to +21.7%

_Leader: _@myrtie100 *+83%*

_2nd_: @bigdog *+77%*

_3rd_: @$20shoes *+71%*

_Honorable mentions (>10%):_
*bigdog +16%, ah13 +15%, leyy +11%, myrtie100 +10%*, 

_Competitors with 5/5 positive:_ (9)
*myrtie100, bigdog, Lincoln Ind,Tumbarumba, kid_hustlr, jbocker, DarkKnight,Triple B, luutzu*

_Competitors positive:_ 38/50 (76%)

_Competitors beating the index:_ 22/50 (44% down from 56%)


----------



## Joe Blow (7 December 2019)

peter2 said:


> That's a timely question and a good prompt to @Joe Blow to consider when to open the entries for the CY2020 comp.
> 
> Last year the comp opened a little too late and many of the members were on holidays and didn't get to enter before the close (Jan 1st). Also, there was little time to check that the entries complied with the modified rules and replacements notified before the start.




I guess we should get this going in the next couple of days to give people a few weeks to enter.

If you're reading this and would like to see a FY 2020 competition then let me know by liking this post. If you have any comments about the rules (e.g. changes you'd like to see) then please comment in this thread... but please do it soon!


----------



## peter2 (9 December 2019)

Approx 14 trading days to go until the end of 2019. Hasn't this year gone quickly. 

All of Nov19 top 10 competitors have lost value so far this month. At EONov the top 10 were separated by 23%, now it's only 20%. Looks like I'm going to have to look at the dividends paid during the year. Do the high flying tech stocks of this year pay any divs yet? Could some of this years special divs and capital returns boost a few competitors results? 

_Another tease_: The top three are only separated by 5% currently.


----------



## peter2 (9 December 2019)

@noirua selections have paid an additional 7% div. Spec divs paid by JMS.

@Trav. @willy1111   (Both in the top 6) have earned another 3% each in divs.

ps: Don't ask about franking credits.


----------



## frugal.rock (10 December 2019)

peter2 said:


> ...
> ps: Don't ask about franking credits.



Not asking, but political parties have  lost elections for not including Frankie's, maybe ASF 2019 competition entrants can lose the comp!? Just sayin... 
Geez, your new mainframe super computer should be able to crunch it or doesn't it have a speedy BUS driver...
Good luck Al.
F.Rock


----------



## peter2 (10 December 2019)

Yep, those franking credits are hot stuff (politically). This is an unrefined link to my computer setup.

https://www.aussiestockforums.com/threads/tipping-competition-for-full-cy-2019.34408/#post-1005596


----------



## systematic (10 December 2019)

peter2 said:


> Yep, those franking credits are hot stuff (politically). This is an unrefined link to my computer setup.
> 
> https://www.aussiestockforums.com/threads/tipping-competition-for-full-cy-2019.34408/#post-1005596





Surely the new machine isn't on the blink already P2?


----------



## peter2 (10 December 2019)

Whoops, you caught me out with that little continuity error. I had to get the new setup after my hard drive crashed.  I'll allocate the franking credits about the same time that we get them from the tax office. In my case that's about 18 mths - 2yrs after I've earned them.


----------



## peter2 (12 December 2019)

Only 12 trading days left for 2019. 
The current volatility allows me to post daily teases, but I think not. Any one of the top 10 can win if one of their selections reports good numbers. OR any one can lose their placing if one of their selections reports poor numbers. 

SLR - up    RBL - down


----------



## peter2 (12 December 2019)

Changed my mind after seeing a few of today's price movements. 

The top 3 are within 2% of each other. Wow, after more than 11 months, it's this close. 
That's within the level that makes the amount of dividends paid throughout the year significant. 
*Top3*:  @myrtie100 , @bigdog , @$20shoes   (Order at Nov19)

One more fact that I only noticed today. BAL is paying a 0.60 div (XD 16/12/19). Holders of BAL will earn this special div. This adds an extra 2% (+8%/4)  to their overall performance. One of the top3 holds BAL. 

ps: Don't hassle me about franking creds OK. 

There's a bit of a gap outside the top three. The others will need a huge boost in one or more of their selections to get into the placings. @Trav. , @Wyatt  and @aus_trader  start praying or contact your CEO's for a good new release before EOY.

This will be the last update mentioning any names. I'm going "dark" until the EOY although I may post a few more teases if there's any sensational moves.


----------



## aus_trader (13 December 2019)

peter2 said:


> There's a bit of a gap outside the top three. The others will need a huge boost in one or more of their selections to get into the placings. @Trav. , @Wyatt and @aus_trader start praying or contact your CEO's for a good new release before EOY.




Thanks for the teasers P2, that reminds me I got to send Christmas presents to the CEO's to bribe them to release some good numbers or some hot news


----------



## Trav. (13 December 2019)

PNV goes BOOM!!!!!


----------



## Wyatt (13 December 2019)

Go you good thing PNV! Maybe some of their products can help some of those poor souls.

Only held in comp FY19, but has been a great stock for many over the past 2 years. Up 5% atm on today's moves. Can the no money P/F surge and lunge at the finishing post?
Good luck @Trav.


----------



## peter2 (13 December 2019)

A graphical pic of the state of play at the end of last week Dec 6th. 
You can see the top 3 within a few % of each other. The chasing pack of 3 about 10% below. 

That's all changed this week with the market moves. 

If you're not on this list, sorry about that. There's next year.


----------



## kid hustlr (13 December 2019)

lol what a great comp.

Myrtie should have walked away in June.

CLV crashed and burned in Dec, subsequently taking my dreams with it 

Very entertaining Pete


----------



## peter2 (13 December 2019)

@kid hustlr  You're about 20% below the leaders. Your other picks, A2M and SM1 didn't go on with it during the year.

@willy1111  You're about 19% below the leaders. You need a boost from either BBN or FLN. 

@jbocker  You were right in the mix, until the RBL dump. Sorry.


----------



## peter2 (13 December 2019)

EOW Dec 13th update:  Zooming in on the leaders, it's now a race in five! 

@Trav.  gained ground with PNV. 
@Wyatt gained ground with PNV, and WSA and ORE.  This portfolio has come alive!


----------



## myrtie100 (13 December 2019)

Darn you Polynovo!

I actually don't think today's candle is very positive 
It has closed on it's low and looks to have rebounded strongly off an area of resistance.
And there is always that gap to be filled 

Well that's my bias take on it anyway....


----------



## Trav. (13 December 2019)

myrtie100 said:


> Well that's my bias take on it anyway....




Exactly what I was thinking when I read your post


----------



## Logique (13 December 2019)

peter2 said:


> A graphical pic of the state of play at the end of last week Dec 6th.
> You can see the top 3 within a few % of each other. The chasing pack of 3 about 10% below.
> That's all changed this week with the market moves.
> If you're not on this list, sorry about that. There's next year.
> View attachment 99023



First class work Peter2, I hope you'll saddle up again for the 2020 comp.
Well tipped to the half dozen on the leader board. Looks like it's anyone's to win.
Market too strong for us Goldies - trailing behind now.


----------



## peter2 (16 December 2019)

PNV closed higher. 
NEA helps @myrtie100

Did anyone pick NVL or LIT?


----------



## peter2 (16 December 2019)

Since the competition is so close, I've included dividends because the holders have earned the div and that prices generally drop by the div amount when the shares go XD. 

I will add the amount of divs paid during 2019 to the closing price at 31st Dec. My source is the ASX.com.au dividends web page. This is pretty reliable but doesn't always include special divs or capital returns or distributions that are paid occasionally. 

Would those of you lucky enough to be in the top 10 please check that the table includes all the divs you feel you are entitled to. This table is ordered using the ASCII decimal code. Not current performance. 

@noira I've included the cap returns for JMS as I'm aware of them. 

If there's others like JMS that make a big difference (+5%) to your performance. Please let me know.


----------



## aus_trader (16 December 2019)

peter2 said:


> View attachment 99079
> 
> 
> PNV closed higher.
> ...




I recently looked at National Veterinary Care Ltd (*NVL*) to consider as a possible candidate for CY2020 compo. But after the lovely premium offered today for the merger/takeover I'll have to look at another alternative.


----------



## peter2 (16 December 2019)

@aus_trader  That's unlucky. You shouldn't have let the private equity firm look over your shoulder. 

Alas, I've some sad news for you. Unless one of your selections spikes up in the next few days I'm going to scratch you from the updates. The top 5 have left you in their dust.


----------



## aus_trader (16 December 2019)

peter2 said:


> @aus_trader  That's unlucky. You shouldn't have let the private equity firm look over your shoulder.
> 
> Alas, I've some sad news for you. Unless one of your selections spikes up in the next few days I'm going to scratch you from the updates. The top 5 have left you in their dust.




Yes, got to do my research more underground with a private VPN to keep my research being spied on.

Have to agree Pete, I am just hoping for a high premium Take Over or a Merger for one of my 4 picks similar to what happened to NVL


----------



## peter2 (17 December 2019)

*8 trading days* until the EOY. 

Monday Dec 16th: @myrtie100 takes the lead with NEA surging higher.
Tuesday Dec 17th: The market drifts lower taking all the top 5 down. 

Check in here to get your daily dose of real life drama. The top 5 are within a tight 8% range. 
Who is going to break-out and take the win? 
Who is going to break-down and out of the comp?


----------



## aus_trader (17 December 2019)

peter2 said:


> *8 trading days* until the EOY.
> 
> Monday Dec 16th: @myrtie100 takes the lead with NEA surging higher.
> Tuesday Dec 17th: The market drifts lower taking all the top 5 down.
> ...



Thanks for keeping us informed Pete , I'll be watching these guys to the finish line at the edge of my seat despite being knocked out a long way from the top5 myself. I think still in the top10, so not throwing the innings away until the last ball is bowled...


----------



## myrtie100 (17 December 2019)

Fingers-crossed, today's bar is just testing that trendline with it's below average volume.
It really needs to break through this area, controlled by the high volume & range candle on the left.

Disclaimer....again this may be my rose-coloured view


----------



## tech/a (17 December 2019)

Hi M 
Just a common consolidation pattern I think.


----------



## myrtie100 (17 December 2019)

Yes, possibly @tech/a 
But you never know...


----------



## aus_trader (17 December 2019)

myrtie100 said:


> Yes, possibly @tech/a
> But you never know...



Good luck @myrtie100 and the other contenders, all very close to each other, very exciting finish it'll be...


----------



## tech/a (18 December 2019)

tech/a said:


> Hi M
> Just a common consolidation pattern I think.




You could also turn it into quite a large Triangle pattern as well.
Which has triggered.
There is also an argument for a Loose formation of a Darvas Box.

Volume analysis also sees a Control bar acting exactly as expected
with price being controlled entirely within its body.


----------



## myrtie100 (18 December 2019)

Absolutely @tech/a , I can see all of those patterns. And I suppose a Davis Box formation is a type of consolidation.

I guess overcoming any bias you may have is the trick and even then it's never certain.

I do think that Volume Analysis can help and is definately something that I'm trying to understand more of.

Thanks for adding your thoughts to my chart


----------



## tech/a (18 December 2019)

Which of course is analysis from the Tipper who is stone motherless last
with not a single one of 4 picks in profit!!


----------



## aus_trader (18 December 2019)

tech/a said:


> Which of course is analysis from the Tipper who is stone motherless last
> with not a single one of 4 picks in profit!!



Better luck in 2020 mate. That reminds me, I got to pick my 4 as well


----------



## tech/a (18 December 2019)

Well on the plus side I cant get any more last!


----------



## peter2 (18 December 2019)

*7 days to go* and it appears that it is a race between NEA and PNV. 
There's a bit of demand for BBN, CUV and CLV as they're off their lows.

The top 5 are now within a 6% range.


----------



## peter2 (19 December 2019)

*6 trading days to go*.  Another day of drifting prices. 
Just below the top 5 there are 7 competitors between +60% to +52%. 
A takeover offer for any one of their selections could propel them into the top places.


----------



## peter2 (20 December 2019)

*5 trading days to go*. 
The top 3 have maintained their positions during the week. The difference between 1st and 3rd is only 4%. One good or bad earnings update released before the EOY could tip the balance (eg JIN today).

I've only been updating the top 12 so I'm unaware if there's been any huge movers below the top12.


----------



## peter2 (20 December 2019)

While we're thinking about our selections for 2020, have a look at the winners in 2019.



There's no micro-cap stocks, no mineral explorers (except gold), no biotechs, no cannabis, no lithium, no graphite.


----------



## myrtie100 (20 December 2019)

I was thinking about those micro-caps.
They could definately offer huge percentage moves in either direction.
But you'd have to be really lucky to pick one that took off into the stratosphere.


----------



## tech/a (20 December 2019)

I’m hoping you win M 
You’ve been on top longer than anyone !


----------



## myrtie100 (20 December 2019)

Thanks @tech/a


----------



## kid hustlr (20 December 2019)

Pete is the list of names in that table a formula or have u just manually typed them in?


----------



## peter2 (20 December 2019)

A lot of copy and paste.


----------



## aus_trader (21 December 2019)

peter2 said:


> There's no micro-cap stocks, no mineral explorers (except gold), no biotechs, no cannabis, no lithium, no graphite.




I thought PNV was a biotech/pharma/healthcare type stock ? 

Also came to the realisation, that you need a few winning stocks in your picks, just because I have the top stock Zip Co Ltd (*Z1P*) with best % gains, it doesn't mean I am in the top 5 contenders as some of my other picks have weighed me down


----------



## peter2 (23 December 2019)

*Only 4 trading days left*.  
Prices are "slip sliding away... " especially NEA. Can @myrtie100  hang on?

The top 3 are separated by only 1%!
Unless something out of the ordinary happens, it's a three person race.


----------



## myrtie100 (23 December 2019)

Oh no, NEA has broken down out of the control area, on high volume


----------



## frugal.rock (23 December 2019)

myrtie100 said:


> Oh no, NEA has broken down out of the control area, on high volume



Interesting turn of events. The director entities transferred nearly 20 million shares on Friday to a Mrs Norgard by family court order.
Not sure why. Merry Christmas darling?


----------



## tech/a (23 December 2019)

myrtie100 said:


> Oh no, NEA has broken down out of the control area, on high volume
> 
> View attachment 99236
> 
> ...




the good news is the very high volume bars “ normally “ see price
Reverse sharply 
The bad news is that an inside day hails a continuation in its present direction 
The smaller the inside day the stronger likely hood of continuation 

go myrtie !


----------



## peter2 (24 December 2019)

*3 trading days to go*.  
Gold is making it's presence felt. The new leader @$20shoes was wise enough to include one gold stock (SLR) and it's paying off now. The best golden portfolio (@noirua ) has appeared on the leader board but there's only 3 days to go.


----------



## frugal.rock (24 December 2019)

Brilliant!
Talk about suspense. Down to the wire!
3 days to go?, well 2.667 technically...
Merry Christmas Al.
F.Rock
PS, if $20shoes wins, I still propose a salutory name change, $1000shoes or $36.40shoes or whatever %  Good luck.


----------



## aus_trader (24 December 2019)

frugal.rock said:


> Not sure why. Merry Christmas darling?



Must be a tax advantage 



peter2 said:


> Gold is making it's presence felt. The new leader @$20shoes was wise enough to include one gold stock (SLR) and it's paying off now. The best golden portfolio (@noirua ) has appeared on the leader board but there's only 3 days to go.



Well done you guys for picking Gold stocks that actually go up when Gold price rises. I picked the Gold stock (AMI) that goes the other way dragging my portfolio down with it


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## peter2 (28 December 2019)

*2 trading days to go.* 
Gold is continuing higher, dragging SLR up with it. The current leader @$20shoes is taking every advantage of it. Meanwhile @myrtie100 with no gold is putting in a mighty surge with all four of her selections going up today. If gold falls over the weekend it's going to be close. If gold rallies over the week-end then @noirua could figure in the placings. What a golden surge this late in the year.




ps: My apologies for the late update. I have been preoccupied by my PC problems.


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## $20shoes (28 December 2019)

Thanks Pete. Fun race to the finish! Good luck all and Happy New Year to the ASF crew. 
My own portfolio, particularly in the last quarter, has gone into a drawdown; this is a fun diversion.


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## $20shoes (28 December 2019)

frugal.rock said:


> Brilliant!
> Talk about suspense. Down to the wire!
> 3 days to go?, well 2.667 technically...
> Merry Christmas Al.
> ...




Im up for that


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## bigdog (28 December 2019)

A big thank you peter2 for running this competition with regular updates making the run to the finish very exiting

Thank you Peter2


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## frugal.rock (28 December 2019)

P2 maybe we can help you with your computer problems with some stochastic suggestions!?
Sometimes RAMdom suggestions outside the box can give us ideas or thought trains not previously investigated...?
F.Rock
PS, however, I am sure you have applied a thorough and systematic approach to the problem...


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## myrtie100 (28 December 2019)

Yes, @peter2 thank you.
And curse you - @$20shoes 
I'm spewing I asked to change my initial pick of Silver Lake 



myrtie100 said:


> Hi @Joe Blow
> I've just realized that Doray Minerals is merging with SilverLake in March.
> Can I change my pick please?
> If it's ok, I would like *CUV* Clinuvel Pharma instead.
> Thanks


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## peter2 (30 December 2019)

*1 trading day left*.  

Has the market got one more surprise to spring on the last day of the year?


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## bigdog (31 December 2019)

The S&P/ASX 200 index looks set to end the year with a day deep in the red. According to the latest SPI futures, the ASX 200 is poised to fall 0.9% or 61 points at the open.

Will be interesting finish with big expected falls today!!

A2Milk is up $NZ 0.10 this morning


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## jbocker (31 December 2019)

Good Luck today top tippers.
I am pretty confident that my tips wont pip you all at the post...
BUT next year with my 2020 vision.. just WATCH OUT.

Looking forward to seeing where I do finish up in 2019   which was a practice run (cough cough)


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## kid hustlr (31 December 2019)

Well this will separate the wheat from the chaff on the last day of the year


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## bigdog (31 December 2019)

My money is on $20shoes winning by a mile; congratulations


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## peter2 (31 December 2019)

<30 min to the end of the trading year and there's <3% separating 2nd to 5th. 

It'll depend on which way the ticks fall at the close.


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## peter2 (31 December 2019)

# _Late breaking news announcement_ #

PET is paying a 1.50 very special bonus div.  Yippee!   Wait, it's going XD tomorrow!  No!

Peter2 suddenly wakes up.

------------------------------
OK seriously. I'll fill in the prices for the top 10 and send Joe the results so that he can announce the winner and other prize winners. While he does that I'll fill in the prices for those of us that didn't pick the better companies.


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## $20shoes (31 December 2019)

bigdog said:


> My money is on $20shoes winning by a mile; congratulations




Not counting chickens just yet


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## systematic (31 December 2019)

At the risk of somehow forgetting to later, I just wanted to say thank you once again @peter2 for making this such an enjoyable comp to follow.  Your commentaries take work for you to produce, they're appreciated...and a lot of fun to read!  Well done @peter2  See you in the 2020 comp!


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## peter2 (31 December 2019)

This is what you've all been waiting for,  the top selected stocks of 2019. 




ps: Results have been PM'd to Joe (who may be on holidays).


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## peter2 (31 December 2019)

Well, what a year with the XAO rising +19.1% for the calendar year 2019. 

_Competitors with 5/5 positive:_  Impressive decision making.

*myrtie100, bigdog, kid_hustlr, Lincoln Indicators, Tumbarumba, DarcKnight, jbocker, Triple B, luutzu*

_Competitors beating the index (XAO):_  24/50  *48%* impressive also

_Competitors positive:_ 38/50  *76%*  Not so impressive since the index was +19% pa. 

Here's the results for the rest of us. I've not posted the first column containing the top 8.


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## peter2 (31 December 2019)

How did we go as a group of portfolio managers?  Did we beat the index?



	

		
			
		

		
	
  Just barely, once divs are included.


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## Triple B (31 December 2019)

Special Mention For Tech/a  taking out the Lanterne Rouge 
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Lanterne_rouge
57% Below the XAO index.


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## jbocker (31 December 2019)

*MASSIVE thank you Peter2, The SPONSOR *(is that still a mystery) *and Joe*. And congratulations to the winners *AND *those who bravely backed stocks that were > $10 returning above 75%. That is HUGE. How good is it when the winners are not sorted till the last day. Brilliant. Absolutely brilliant.​


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## tinhat (31 December 2019)

Thanks peter2 and Aussie Stock Forums and congratulations to the winners. One interesting take away is that with only four bulls hitched to your bullocky, one sick beast can drag you down. This competition demonstrates the virtues of spreading your risk across a basket of stocks.


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## peter2 (31 December 2019)

The suspense is killing me @Joe Blow . 
Who won? 
Who ran 2nd and 3rd after today's turmoil in the market?


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## Joe Blow (31 December 2019)

peter2 said:


> The suspense is killing me @Joe Blow .
> Who won?
> Who ran 2nd and 3rd after today's turmoil in the market?




Sorry, I got out of Brisbane at lunchtime and am up at Mount Tamborine visiting some friends for New Years Eve. Much cooler up here.

OK. Now to the results:

First Place: $20shoes
Second Place: myrtie100
Third Place: bigdog

Congratulations to all the winners! It was a great competition that went all the way down to the wire. Let's hope the 2020 competition is just as entertaining.

If the winners could send me a PM I'll get back to you tomorrow after my hangover eases off.

Many thanks to @peter2 for his efforts in maintaining the competition!


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## barney (31 December 2019)

Joe Blow said:


> Many thanks to @peter2 for his efforts in maintaining the competition!




Agree … Thumbs up Peter

This year may end up being a walk in the park compared to how the 2020 comp is shaping up


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## peter2 (31 December 2019)

Congratulations to @$20shoes. 
This year long comp was won in the last two days with the sudden rally in gold. 

Congrats to @myrtie100 who led for much of the year. 

Congrats to @bigdog who held onto 3rd place all thanks to the spec div paid by BAL. 

Tied for 4th place (can you believe it, a tie after one year): @Wyatt, @noirua


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## peter2 (31 December 2019)

The last chart showing how the gold rally kicked the winner clear when it mattered and almost caused a surprise ending with @noirua charging into contention.


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## $20shoes (31 December 2019)

Many thanks to Joe and Peter and the great community we have here. It was great to have such a tight race to the finish, and commiserations to those who ran such a close race, and indeed lead for a lot of the way.  I really need to contribute more;  we have a very worthwhile community here and with a lot more knowledge than i possess. I cut my teeth by soaking up all the posts I could from ASF contributors. The fact that we have members on here willing to share and educate others makes ASF a valuable and worthwhile enterprise.

I must admit I pre-empted the win today by buying myself a bottle of Bundaberg Solera Rum (from the Master Distillers Collection), and plan to toast away one decade tonight and welcome in another. 

I hope the New Year welcomes you all warmly. Here's to a great 2020 to all of you and your families.

Joe, enjoy your New Years - I'll message you tomorrow once Ive nursed off my hangover


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## myrtie100 (1 January 2020)

Well done Shoes, what a battle in that last week!
Thanks to Peter for keeping suspenceful track of the comp - very entertaining 
And also to Joe and the very generous sponsor.
I'm looking forward to the next one and hope to be as lucky as last time!
Good luck everyone....


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## frugal.rock (1 January 2020)

Yarrrrp,
Well done $1000Shoes!
F.Rock


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## debtfree (1 January 2020)

@Joe Blow  I know it is past midnight 31st so is it too late to put an entry in as I noticed the thread is still unlocked? I didn't know if that was intentional so get a few more in. No dramas at all if too late.


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## frugal.rock (1 January 2020)

debtfree said:


> @Joe Blow  I know it is past midnight 31st so is it too late to put an entry in as I noticed the thread is still unlocked? I didn't know if that was intentional so get a few more in. No dramas at all if too late.



Throw it in debt free.
The market's don't open until tomorrow. I would imagine 10am tomorrow is logically the fairest cut off time.
Cheers and a happy and prosperous new year to you all.
F.Rock


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## $20shoes (1 January 2020)

frugal.rock said:


> Yarrrrp,
> Well done $1000Shoes!
> F.Rock



Thanks all and happy new year


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## frugal.rock (1 January 2020)

https://www.aussiestockforums.com/threads/z1p-apt-prediction-competition.35127/

G'day Al,
Another one for the thinkers!
Entries close end of 15/1/2020
Cheers


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## leyy (1 January 2020)

Amazing job @peter2 thank you for all your hard work and efforts!

Congratulations to all winners. Thanks to ASF and Joe for having this great competition annually.


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## Tumbarumba (2 January 2020)

peter2 said:


> This is what you've all been waiting for,  the top selected stocks of 2019.
> 
> View attachment 99370
> 
> ...



My tips ignored?  XRO 90% and NEU 77%


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## barney (2 January 2020)

Tumbarumba said:


> My tips ignored?  XRO 90% and NEU 77%




Hey T. 

Everyone's 4 tips % were added then divided by 4

You had a bit over 200% … divided by 4 made about 52% final result ….. Great result but no cigars unfortunately ...

Maybe a couple of packets of Marlboro though


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## debtfree (2 January 2020)

@barney 
I think @Tumbarumba was talking about @peter2 post #345


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## peter2 (2 January 2020)

@Tumbarumba My apologies. I didn't go through the spreadsheet looking for better performances than the list I already had. The selloff on the last day of the year allowed other stocks to jump the queue.


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## peter2 (7 January 2020)

Divs are included for the top 9 only.


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## peter2 (7 January 2020)

@Logique  Gold didn't really make much of an impact until the last two weeks of 2019 and by then it was too late.


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