# MCR - Mincor Resources



## tech/a

Making good higher highs and higher lows.
Buying for a longer term hold.


----------



## markrmau

*Re: MCR.*

Thanks for the pointers - nickel is supposed to have a good run next year (but your steel comments in the china is a possible negative against this).

I was considering starting a "Techtrader entry/exit" discussion thread --- or is there already one on reefcap?

I took 1/2 profits on wpl yesterday, mainly because I wasn't happy having such a large position on it, and needed something to do with the $$.


----------



## tech/a

*Re: MCR.*

Bought half of what I want at .81c.

Will buy the rest when stock either finds a low from retracing or makes a new high.

As for T/T Reefcap has the portfolio that we have traded from the beginning.
we dont discuss or note every single trade found by nightly scans.
This is only done if a stock is sold and then replaced.

There is a lot to be learnt from disecting a mechanical methodology and Im happy for T/T to be used for this purpose.If you or others wish to run a portfolio or go into the idiosyncrocies of trading a mechanical method then Im happy to take part and post any test results in relation to the method being discussed(Techtrader).

Ill make this point again.It was designed to see if everyday People could design and trade a long term method profitably.Its not presented as "THE" method to trade just "A" method,from which people can learn---Perhaps answering the question----"Why Trade Mechanically?"

Its not for everyone but like most here I also started out as a short term trader.Funnily it answered a lot of questions re short term trading during the many hrs of testing!

Must say that Im a little loath to start any lengthy discussion since the last pile of posts suggesting that they were/are self serving.


----------



## markrmau

*Re: MCR.*

Unfortunately I bought at open, but this doesn't matter - I think this stock will run well. 

Someone put down $100k on the close bid too.

Not interested in all the c ra p that has been going back and forth - I am interested in this system because I am wasting too much time watching the too and frow of the bids. 

I or someone else can start a thread when an entry or exit comes up and if noone responds, thats ok, but hopefully will get discussion.

This is a test: there is a soccer team named ****nal ... who liked to play on the grassy knoll. Lorraine Crap is a famous australian swimmer.


----------



## markrmau

*Re: MCR.*

Thoughts on MCR anyone?

An Elliot waver might be inclined to say it is just finishing its ABC. A support / resistance fellow might hope that 75c will act as support. A fundamentalist might think that since nickel is going in the right direction we should hang on to this.

http://www.kitcometals.com/charts/nickel_historical_large.html

It's about at my stop loss, and I think I will ditch it if it breaks 75c.


----------



## RichKid

*Re: MCR.*

The drop in volume is what's worrying. Seems to be some consensus around the mid 70's. A drop below 75c would see it having to break resistance again. The last four bars suggest a change in sentiment, polarity is negative. I did notice some previous spikes (false breakouts) before this recent breakout. I don't expect it to go back to 60c again but it could go close. Too early to call that yet. I get the impression that more positive anncts re drilling will see this recover, but when that'll come and whether it's been built into the sp are different questions.


----------



## DTM

*Re: MCR.*

Looks like its been retracing to the .76 support level and consolidating.  I think its only going to go back up although  I don't think it will shoot back up (hopefully I'm wrong) but maybe an orderly rise.


----------



## markrmau

*Re: MCR.*

todays figures are good for mining expoters so i will hold


----------



## RichKid

*Re: MCR.*

Plenty of buyers at 75 and 76 but they will be taken out unless some new news comes through imo. Still bullish, not surprising to see it fall back a bit. March is a big month for MCR with the village work and cashflow improving.


----------



## Kipp

*Re: MCR.*

Not much interest in this thread in ages...
I think it looks like a winner, sitting on a P/E of 6.5 and very good track record over the past 5 years.  Managed a ha;f year profit of 10 mill despite unfavourable nickel market.  Now that Ni is on the rise again, what are the prospects for MCR?

My big concern is that even last year when Ni was above $8/lb the share price was only trading about 85c, therefore maybe there's not too much to get excited about- cause today it closed at 77.5c.

Anyone out there watching this one?  Any thoughts would be appreciated


----------



## porkpie324

I have been a long time supporter of mcr, have traded mcr many times still holding quite a few, read todays announcement it means mcr is diversifying so the market could possibly rerate. porkpie


----------



## emma

I bought late December @ .68 and have endured the ups and downs but finally am happy to see the current upwards movement - notes from last weekend (looking at the weekly chart) registered a rejection of the week's lows indicating that the coming week could see perhaps see higher prices - so far so good.  Having said that - would someone with greater technical skills like to analyze the  current situation?

No, I don't want advice - I'd just like to see how other people go about it.


----------



## Kipp

porkpie324 said:
			
		

> I have been a long time supporter of mcr, have traded mcr many times still holding quite a few, read todays announcement it means mcr is diversifying so the market could possibly rerate. porkpie




Yes, but only prospecting.... could be a while before they start Gold production, but I agree tis good news.
Had a pretty good day today... moving up towards the 12month highs reached last year... which I'd discovered MCR a week ago.

One downside is it looks to me like they only have Nickel reserves for the next 5-6 years ago at the current rate of production (13000 pa).

But in any event, I still think I get onboard MCR very soon, it is a promising sign that they pulled off an awesome result for Dec half year when things were tough (for Nickel), a very good sign imo.


----------



## michael_selway

Kipp said:
			
		

> Yes, but only prospecting.... could be a while before they start Gold production, but I agree tis good news.
> Had a pretty good day today... moving up towards the 12month highs reached last year... which I'd discovered MCR a week ago.
> 
> One downside is it looks to me like they only have Nickel reserves for the next 5-6 years ago at the current rate of production (13000 pa).
> 
> But in any event, I still think I get onboard MCR very soon, it is a promising sign that they pulled off an awesome result for Dec half year when things were tough (for Nickel), a very good sign imo.




For some reason it has such low PE(forward), and also pays dividends?

Earnings and Dividends Forecast (cents per share) 
2005 2006 2007 2008 
EPS 10.4 12.2 19.8 9.6 
DPS 3.0 4.5 4.5 4.5

EPS(c) PE Growth 
Year Ending 30-06-06 12.2 6.4 16.8% 
Year Ending 30-06-07 19.8 3.9 62.3%


----------



## Kipp

Think the forward P/E could be bad 'cause of MCRs current resources/ore rserves- check out page 20 on http://www.mincor.com.au/images/mincor---oosoh.pdf  (sorry tried to attach the graph, but think the file was too largre).
Anyway, the bottom line is that MCR's total Ni Reserves are only 47,000 tonnes as at June 30, 2005 (compared to 53,000 tonnes Ni Jun 04).  So, producing 13,000 tones a year only leave them with 4 years more production!!!  Course, I know nothing about their curent exlporation stakes (plus they are now looking at gold).

Anyhow, just my thoughts.  Plus SP has hit a fair bit of resistence at 83c... volume is tapering off... not so good.


----------



## michael_selway

Kipp said:
			
		

> Think the forward P/E could be bad 'cause of MCRs current resources/ore rserves- check out page 20 on http://www.mincor.com.au/images/mincor---oosoh.pdf  (sorry tried to attach the graph, but think the file was too largre).
> Anyway, the bottom line is that MCR's total Ni Reserves are only 47,000 tonnes as at June 30, 2005 (compared to 53,000 tonnes Ni Jun 04).  So, producing 13,000 tones a year only leave them with 4 years more production!!!  Course, I know nothing about their curent exlporation stakes (plus they are now looking at gold).
> 
> Anyhow, just my thoughts.  Plus SP has hit a fair bit of resistence at 83c... volume is tapering off... not so good.




Hi Kipp

yeah that forecast 2008 EPS of 0.09 is a huge drop from 2007, probably for the reason u have stated. Also maybe nickel prices will cool off by then?

thx

MS


----------



## Kipp

Not much action for MCR (well, sp has been trickling downward for the past week) despite Ni prices kicking on to $8.20... has me baffled


----------



## Kipp

Kipp said:
			
		

> Not much action for MCR (well, sp has been trickling downward for the past week) despite Ni prices kicking on to $8.20... has me baffled




Finally some action for MCR (al the Ni stocks had a pretty good run today)

Quote Holst report (pub 5/4/06) "Our base case valuation of Mincor has *increased to $0.81 per share * (previously $0.73/share) due to
higher nickel price assumptions (current spot LME price: US$7.05/lb) and expected resource to
reserve additions (at this stage still constrained by relatively short mine lives). *Every 10% change in
our nickel price assumptions changes our valuation of Mincor by 5cps."*• 

Ni spot price up to $8.70/lb (23% increase since time of report) therefore MCR price target= 81+ (2.3x 5c)= 92.5c at current Nickel prices.


----------



## michael_selway

Kipp said:
			
		

> Finally some action for MCR (al the Ni stocks had a pretty good run today)
> 
> Quote Holst report (pub 5/4/06) "Our base case valuation of Mincor has *increased to $0.81 per share * (previously $0.73/share) due to
> higher nickel price assumptions (current spot LME price: US$7.05/lb) and expected resource to
> reserve additions (at this stage still constrained by relatively short mine lives). *Every 10% change in
> our nickel price assumptions changes our valuation of Mincor by 5cps."*•
> 
> Ni spot price up to $8.70/lb (23% increase since time of report) therefore MCR price target= 81+ (2.3x 5c)= 92.5c at current Nickel prices.




The thing is, is the current Nickel Spot Price sustainable? thats where the danger lies


----------



## Kipp

michael_selway said:
			
		

> The thing is, is the current Nickel Spot Price sustainable? thats where the danger lies



Yep, but if we all knew the futures for Gold, Nickel, and Zinc for the next 6-12months it wouldn't make investing that much of a challenge, would it? 
but at least Nickel is a component of stainless steel for which the Chinese appetitte knows no end.  Plus batteries ni-cd and NMH, but I don;t really know which of these is the primary driver for Ni price and it's use (hell, batteries prob comprise 0.2% of all Ni used for all I know).

And this is something else which has just occured to me... are MCR (and all comps for that matter) obligated to put ALL brokers reports on their website?  Or do they just pick and chose the more favourable brokers reports?  [ignoring the SELL recommendations?]


----------



## MalteseBull

going to crack $1 tommorow

bought more


----------



## porkpie324

yes mcr up today on large vol, last resistance at this level is back in late 2003 early 2004 when mcr made a double top at just over a $1.00, i'm holding quite a few mcr been accumulating for a while, so next few days will be interesting. porkpie


----------



## Chief Wigam

Anyone have any technical price projections?


----------



## porkpie324

mincor again at a d/top of $1.00,then broke thru on above average vol, looks like mcr is being rerated, my patient accumalation paid off. As for a technical top who knows we're in blue sky territory now. porkpie


----------



## michael_selway

porkpie324 said:
			
		

> mincor again at a d/top of $1.00,then broke thru on above average vol, looks like mcr is being rerated, my patient accumalation paid off. As for a technical top who knows we're in blue sky territory now. porkpie




Can it be sustained thats the thing, and also mine life, only 4 yrs left?

Earnings and Dividends Forecast (cents per share) 
2005 2006 2007 2008 
EPS 10.4 10.4 23.1 10.8 
DPS 3.0 4.5 4.5 4.5 

thx

MS


----------



## porkpie324

i think mcr has more than 4yrs mine life up its sleeve, also some good reports this week with a record june production also mcr's relationship with view res. anyway i'm watching mcr carefully at the mo, for possible profit taking (quite large now), then buy in again on any weakness. porkpie


----------



## stiger

Mincor is going along very nicely indeed;IMHO.


----------



## stiger

Took some profit today, the remainder is pure cream.


----------



## porkpie324

me too took some profit today, i have also been trading mcr using cfd's, it seems a lot easier to gauge the market using cfd's for quick trades usually hold from a few hrs to upto 4 days, porkpie


----------



## Kipp

michael_selway said:
			
		

> Can it be sustained thats the thing, and also mine life, only 4 yrs left?
> 
> Earnings and Dividends Forecast (cents per share)
> 2005 2006 2007 2008
> EPS 10.4 10.4 23.1 10.8
> DPS 3.0 4.5 4.5 4.5
> 
> thx
> 
> MS



MS I think commsec 2006 estimate is VERRRYYY conservative.
The half year to Dec EPS was 5c and Nickel has a great run since then, not to mention the sale of Teyhan Copper's residual holding for a few $$$$...

Sold my last little pack of MCR about a month ago in a mad panic when the market was at the worst of it's trough (correction).  Think I regret it? :whip


----------



## johnmwu3

Nickle is shining for the rest of year.( maybe 2-4 years）
MCR may be the next KZL or ZFX in base metals.
Any op. ?


----------



## porkpie324

Lets hope so, i'm a long term fan&holder of mcr, have also been trading mcr using CFD,s , although no open pos at the mo,porkpie


----------



## johnmwu3

Rising nickel output helps Australia's Mincor beat rising costs  

Singapore (Platts)--28Aug2006
Strong nickel prices and a solid year of production helped Australia's
Mincor fight off rising costs and deliver record net earnings for the
financial year ended June 30, the Sydney-listed miner said Tuesday.
     All four of its Kambalda nickel mines in Western Australia were running
at full capacity by the end of the reporting year, helping Mincor post full
production of 13,500 mt of nickel-in-concentrate--up from 10,000 mt a year
before. 
     Strong nickel prices boosted the yield from the nickel sold, and Mincor
as a result reported a 44% increase in sales revenue to A$174.6 million ($120
million), up from A$121.2 million a year earlier. 
     Its EBITDA (earnings before interest, tax, depreciation and amortization)
hit a record A$70.6 million, up from A$46.7 million a year earlier--a result
that was also thanks in part to selling off optional interests in certain
projects and writing off some properties in Tanzania. Before those special
items, EBITDA was up 35% to A$63 million.

     TO BRING ONE PROJECT IN HOUSE TO FIGHT OFF RISING COSTS
     Mincor said it was keeping a close eye on its rising costs, though, and
would bring at least one project fully in house to govern costs better.
"Mincor remains vigilant on costs, and to this end we have made the decision
to move our Redross Nickel Mine to owner mining," said Mincor managing
director David Moore. "Our mining contractor Barminco has done a fantastic job
there but we feel that the specific requirements of the mine are now more
suited to an owner operation."
     Mincor has committed A$8 million to the transition to owner-mining at
Redross, which will take place on 1 October 2006. 
     Moore said Mincor would make a decision "in the very near term" on
whether or not to go ahead with its South Miitel mine project, near the
Kambalda complex.


----------



## michael_selway

johnmwu3 said:
			
		

> Nickle is shining for the rest of year.( maybe 2-4 years）
> MCR may be the next KZL or ZFX in base metals.
> Any op. ?




I disagree, i think this year 2006 will be the peak of Nickel, then probably downhill from then on

*MCR - Earnings and Dividends Forecast (cents per share) 
2005 2006 2007 2008 
EPS 10.4 12.3 22.7 12.1 
DPS 3.0 4.5 4.5 4.5 

MRE - Earnings and Dividends Forecast (cents per share) 
2005 2006 2007 2008 
EPS 12.8 36.5 33.2 20.8 
DPS 10.0 11.0 10.8 7.0 

IGO - Earnings and Dividends Forecast (cents per share) 
2005 2006 2007 2008 
EPS 19.8 28.2 38.0 32.0 
DPS 8.0 7.0 10.0 10.0 

SMY - Earnings and Dividends Forecast (cents per share) 
2005 2006 2007 2008 
EPS 7.3 4.4 18.7 28.7 
DPS -- 0.0 0.0 0.0 

JBM - Earnings and Dividends Forecast (cents per share) 
2006 2007 2008 2009 
EPS 80.1 56.4 59.9 67.7 
DPS 40.0 34.0 26.5 16.5 * 

thx

MS


----------



## BAM

I came in late on this one, have only bought in the last few weeks.
Happy to be an owner.
I think the key to MCR's success is the effective management of costs, the focus on sustainablitiy through the procurement of new reserves and the debt free status that we/they enjoy.
The market will catch up eventually. I only wish I bought in this time last year.
Nickel prices will fall throughout the end of this year and into next year, however, demand will out-weigh supply again in 2009 pushing the prices up.


----------



## Halba

BAM be careful of analysts forecasts....these    analysts said nickel surplus last year...now its in deficit (official figures) so be wary of anyone telling you it will crash....put simply market dynamics have changed...technically nickel shares are strong too.....suggesting nickel is allright for a year or two at least  

MCR are lowly capped @ $230M mkt cap. They are diversifying and from that low mkt cap they can grow easily.


----------



## ekman

Bouth this recently at the peak. Cna someone tell me whether to sell and reduce losses.


----------



## ekman

MINCOR (MCR) open to takeover offers. ...interestig reading on bloomberg site http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?...refer=australia


----------



## porkpie324

i could'nt seem to find this story on the bloomberg site, any chance of some breif details. porkpie


----------



## ekman

porkpie324 said:
			
		

> i could'nt seem to find this story on the bloomberg site, any chance of some breif details. porkpie



Mincor's Reeve Says Nickel Miner Is Open to Takeover Offers 

By Catherine Yang and Tan Hwee Ann

Oct. 11 (Bloomberg) -- Mincor Resources NL, Australia's fourth-largest nickel producer by mine output, said it's open to takeover offers as mining companies worldwide search for more resources to meet surging Chinese demand. 

The company hasn't been approached and is focused on exploration to increase resources, Jim Reeve, chief operating officer of Mincor, said in an interview in Sydney. 

``Everything is for sale at the right price that gives our shareholders the maximum return,'' said Reeve. An offer ``would have to be a fair way north of the existing share price because we believe we're undervalued and there is a lot more potential in our mines,'' he said. 

Prices of nickel, used in batteries and to rust proof steel, have more than doubled this year, reaching the highest in at least 19 years this month as demand exceed supply. Inventories have slumped 89 percent this year amid soaring demand from Chinese steelmakers. 

Shares of Mincor have more than doubled this year, compared with a 10 percent rise in the benchmark S&P/ASX Index. Mincor closed at A$1.40 Oct. 10. 

To contact the reporter on this story: Tan Hwee Ann in Melbourne at hatan@bloomberg.net


----------



## porkpie324

thanks ekman for the detail, i have reduce my physical holding late last week, but bought using CFDs mon tue &wed looking to close today, porkpie
PS, IGO had a great run yesterday & up today, more porkpie


----------



## Seneca60BC

Hi

I bought MCR on friday for 1.52.  Ceteris Paribus, viz Nickel Price, I think this company is valued at 2.10-2.20.

Regards


----------



## ekman

porkpie324 said:
			
		

> thanks ekman for the detail, i have reduce my physical holding late last week, but bought using CFDs mon tue &wed looking to close today, porkpie
> PS, IGO had a great run yesterday & up today, more porkpie



Porkpie, are you still in MCR. do you think it still has legs


----------



## porkpie324

ekman said:
			
		

> Porkpie, are you still in MCR. do you think it still has legs



I sold about 60% of MCR also closed all my CFD positions, looks as if I closed to quick but I still made good money> as for the future I think MCR has a long future and will be buying back in on any weakness. Just for the record I closed out MRE, SMY, AGM, IGO, CBH & western areas, all are good prospects and will do the same as MCR. PORKPIE


----------



## Seneca60BC

FOr the record - I'm still in - but im getting ready for a very bumby ride


----------



## porkpie324

looks like some profit taking has come in today, yes there could be bumps coming in. porkpie


----------



## porkpie324

forgot to mention MCR gave the dreaded 'gravestone doji' on 17th.porkpie


----------



## alankew

What exactly is a gravestone doji?


----------



## porkpie324

The 'gravestone doji' or the 'inverted hammer' are in candlestick functions extremely bearish signals. Now I'm not a great techy but i'm sure all the followers of candlestick trading would have taken note.porkpie


----------



## Seneca60BC

porkie

Is that a sell signal - what you mentioned?


----------



## porkpie324

Thats what I said, in candlestick functions the 'gravestone doji or the inverted hammer' are extemely bearish and quite often signals a change in direction. As I said I'm not a great techy but after such a strong sp rise it could be worth watching. I have reduced my MCR holding which I did before the 'doji' formed.porkpie


----------



## Seneca60BC

porkpie

Do you still have 40% vested in MCR?


----------



## michael_selway

porkpie324 said:
			
		

> Thats what I said, in candlestick functions the 'gravestone doji or the inverted hammer' are extemely bearish and quite often signals a change in direction. As I said I'm not a great techy but after such a strong sp rise it could be worth watching. I have reduced my MCR holding which I did before the 'doji' formed.porkpie




yep once LME "ins' or on warrants start increasing again, Nickel Price will fall 

thx

MS


----------



## porkpie324

Do you still have 40% vested in MCR?
Yes close to that, regarding the candlestick 'doji' I mentioned, MCR appears to have broken through the highest point so looks like the sp is still heading up. But i'm watching them carefully at the mo, i'm just trading CFDs with MCR at this period, only leaving them open for a few hours to a max of 2 daysporkpie


----------



## porkpie324

Looks like some hefty profit taking going on with heavy vol this morning, still after such a big increase in sp about .50c in a couple of weeks it had to happen, MCR could be forming support about $1.80, I bought a few this morning some at 1.80 and 1.825. porkpie


----------



## Seneca60BC

Hi Porkpie

I think this is due to the heavy sell down on Nickel last night.

with respect,
Shelton.


----------



## porkpie324

Shelton, I thought that but JBM MRE IGO have risen today, ??? porkpie


----------



## Seneca60BC

yes your correct - just learnt that - mmm madness of the market or your possible right - support at 1.80


----------



## porkpie324

Could'nt resist it bought a few more late yesterday using CFDs, and yes I'm leaving them open over the weekend. porkpie


----------



## djones

MCR are rocketing down, down another 6 points this morning after 20mins of trading!


----------



## porkpie324

Yes have noted more weakness this morning, but with nickel increasing on Friday I have just bought some more at 1.765 CFDs again, thats 4 lots Ive bought now. porkpie


----------



## porkpie324

Someone is buying up MCR this morning, there was over 100k at 1.80 but were quickly taken, now 70k at 1.82 next res. I think MCR was a little oversold. porkpie


----------



## porkpie324

Looks a little overstretched so closed this mornings CFD trade, as Arfur Daly would say a nice little earner tis morning. porkpie


----------



## djones

Strong quarterly production of 3,612 tonnes nickel in 
concentrate 
• Record quarterly operating surplus of $38 million 
• Current cash and receivables net of creditors and 
accruals stand at $69 million; Mincor has no debt 
• Development decision taken on South Miitel – a major 
new expansion of the Miitel Nickel Mine 
• Successful transition to owner-mining at Redross 
• Ore Reserve statement underlines outstanding record of 
reserve replacement, while mineral resources stand at 
an all-time high 
• Record profits, cashflows and dividends announced for 
financial year 2005/6 
• Continued exploration success at Carnilya Hill and 
elsewhere – Mincor raises exploration budget from $8 
million to $12 million for the current financial year.


----------



## porkpie324

Yes a good quartily report, have just read it, looks as if some more support coming through too this afternoon, bought back again at 1.81. porkpie


----------



## Seneca60BC

djones said:
			
		

> MCR are rocketing down, down another 6 points this morning after 20mins of trading!




so?


----------



## ekman

porkpie324 said:
			
		

> Yes a good quartily report, have just read it, looks as if some more support coming through too this afternoon, bought back again at 1.81. porkpie



like a fool i sold my MCR at 2.03 on Friday last only to see it jump another 30 cents in 2 days


----------



## porkpie324

What a day for MCR opened up in the high 2.30's got sold off then back  up to the high 2.20's,  and I went fishing, just got back, missed all the action. Your not alone Ekman I did the same closed all my CFD positions Friday.porkpie


----------



## Seneca60BC

i may be the fool here - still holding em.


----------



## michael_selway

Seneca60BC said:
			
		

> i may be the fool here - still holding em.




yeah its strange, as nickel prices have fallen

thx

MS


----------



## chops_a_must

michael_selway said:
			
		

> yeah its strange, as nickel prices have fallen
> 
> thx
> 
> MS




Maybe not. I think they are looking at producing other metals.

Still, slightly overpriced at the moment?


----------



## Seneca60BC

still quite a bit to run yet hehe hehe and exploration upside.


----------



## 36590

Are there any thoughts of where this stock is headed after the last couple of days. I have been watching MCR and CBH dive a fair way. I wouldn't mind a Nickel share as I already have TZN. Any thoughts or is the consensus to go with zinc?


----------



## Seneca60BC

As the old saying goes, what wise men do in the beginning, fools do at the end.

Volitility happens-move on.


----------



## porkpie324

MCR sure has been sold off, glad that I closed last week. I opened one CFD pos yesterday looking to add today.porkpie


----------



## Fab

36590 said:
			
		

> Are there any thoughts of where this stock is headed after the last couple of days. I have been watching MCR and CBH dive a fair way. I wouldn't mind a Nickel share as I already have TZN. Any thoughts or is the consensus to go with zinc?



ZFX is getting cheap and AUZ as a cheap nickel stock is going back up


----------



## porkpie324

Just read this article on Kitco, seems reasonable after all did the same myselfe.porkpie

"Shares in Kambalda nickel miner Mincor Resources were pummelled yesterday, falling more than 9 per cent on the back of what is believed to be profit taking by institutional investors. 

Mincor, which last week touched a record $2.35 as nickel prices soared, yesterday came crashing back to earth to close 18.5 ¢ down at $1.81 after more than 4.6 million shares changed hands. 

The fall was significantly greater than the declines suffered by its local nickel rivals as nickel prices eased, with Independence Group sliding 2 ¢ to $4.59, Jubilee Mines shedding 40 ¢ to $12.35, Minara Resources slipping 20 ¢ to $5.14 and Consolidated Minerals closing 4 ¢ down at $2. 

It is believed that Mincor’s decline was largely due to institutional selling, most likely by big investor MIR Investment seeking to lock in profits from recent gains. 

MIR has been a regular trader of Mincor shares in recent months. 

In September, it boosted its stake to 8.19 per cent after picking up nearly three million shares at an average price of $1.22. A month earlier it offloaded over 2.6 million shares at an average price of $1.14 after buying 2.25 million shares at an average of 98 ¢ in July. 

Mincor company secretary Brian Lynn said the company was not aware of any reason for yesterday’s big plunge, with operations at Kambalda performing to expectations. 

Mincor generated a record quarterly operating surplus of $38 million in the September quarter and is debt free."


----------



## chops_a_must

There was a release from a director a week or so ago saying that they were well valued, or words to that effect, when the SP was about 2.25. But to me, this looks like good value as well.


----------



## Freeballinginawetsuit

I'm liking the volume and spread on MCR Today, constantly soaking up the sellers, and there's been some decent ones , silly buggers!.

IMHO, MCR's not far of blowing its lid .


----------



## chops_a_must

Freeballinginawetsuit said:
			
		

> I'm liking the volume and spread on MCR Today, constantly soaking up the sellers, and there's been some decent ones , silly buggers!.
> 
> IMHO, MCR's not far of blowing its lid .



Yes, great news today!

Stoopid instos.


----------



## Freeballinginawetsuit

Still under selling pressure though, everytime its cleared and looks half a chance for momentum to grab a hold, up comes the shark bar .


----------



## michael_selway

Freeballinginawetsuit said:
			
		

> Still under selling pressure though, everytime its cleared and looks half a chance for momentum to grab a hold, up comes the shark bar .




Its done well though.

thx

MS


----------



## porkpie324

Dead right there doin' well, have just taken another healthy profit from last weeks sell off, still holding some. porkpie


----------



## chops_a_must

I put this in another thread, but is more relevant here:

"RE: Cobalt Capacity 

We make money from Cobalt as a by-product recovered from our nickel mining operations. As such we do get the benefit of any price increases in Cobalt. The total value of by-product copper and cobalt together is about 3% of our revenue.

Many thanks for your support of and interest in our Company.

Best regards

David Moore

Managing Director

Mincor Resources NL"

An extra 1-2% of revenue purely due to Cobalt this year?

And another very significant nickle discovery announced, yet selling pressure, strange.


----------



## ekman

anyone knows why this is in trading halt


----------



## Freeballinginawetsuit

Nope but hope its good news, Ive been picking their bum today .


----------



## chops_a_must

ekman said:
			
		

> anyone knows why this is in trading halt



Might be to do with their new operations.


----------



## Freeballinginawetsuit

chops_a_must said:
			
		

> Might be to do with their new operations.





MCR's exploration has been coming up trumps in recent weeks. With their mine life potentially extended at Mariners and a BFS immenint at Carnilya Hill, maybe that was all a potential bidder needed for a T/O. 

Could be wishful thinking, certainly not out of the question though. MCR are the fourth biggest Ni producer in Australia (mine output), fair value, cashed up and lowly hedged.


----------



## chops_a_must

Freeballinginawetsuit said:
			
		

> MCR's exploration has been coming up trumps in recent weeks. With their mine life potentially extended at Mariners and a BFS immenint at Carnilya Hill, maybe that was all a potential bidder needed for a T/O.
> 
> Could be wishful thinking, certainly not out of the question though. MCR are the fourth biggest Ni producer in Australia (mine output), fair value, cashed up and lowly hedged.



Well, nickel still looks stronger than zinc for the next few years. Or maybe they have found a large amount of zinc? Either reason would be enough for a T/O.

But look at the amount of !'s in the last two weeks. All positive. I can't see it being bad news as one of the directors said the share was at a very good price at about 2.20.

Yeah, I just can't see it being bad news. Shall be interesting, I hold at an everage of 1.95. Will be nice if it has a big breakout.


----------



## Lert

I picked up MCR for 75 cents in Sept 05. Up nearly 200%.. another 20% would top it off


----------



## ekman

Lert said:
			
		

> I picked up MCR for 75 cents in Sept 05. Up nearly 200%.. another 20% would top it off



u r getting greedy !!


----------



## Lert

Thats a very astute observation Ekman, and you are quite correct.. but I need a few MCR's to make up for the failures like CSM.


----------



## Lert

The 'West Australian' this morning reported speculation regarding capital raising..  Anyones guess I suppose..


----------



## chops_a_must

Lert said:
			
		

> The 'West Australian' this morning reported speculation regarding capital raising..  Anyones guess I suppose..



Why would they need to? Totally debt free, big profits. Don't quite understand.


----------



## JBMMMMMMMMMM

MCR has treated me well over the year paid 66.5c sold at 2.04 thought I'd made a massive mistake when it drove up to 2.30 the next day ,still turned out pretty good buying back in at 178.5 on the  recent dip should fly Once the ann. is out that is if its good news which I'm 99% sure it will be


----------



## chops_a_must

Yeah, it all looks pretty darn good to me. The management seem to have a bit of a midas touch.


----------



## Freeballinginawetsuit

Their a bunch of ugly buggers though lol, nice announcement today! & good to see a minnow growing and be part of it


----------



## djones

Mincor is moving back towards its previous resistance at 2.30. Still being capped by a large seller as shown by the large volume but small price changes. As soon as the large seller has finished offloading his shares it should be blue skies for MCR.

With record nickel prices, $100million in the bank and recent resource finds, the record quarterly result due out on the 29/01 should launch this stock to $2.50 then onto $3 by the end of March.


----------



## MiningGuru

djones said:
			
		

> Mincor is moving back towards its previous resistance at 2.30. Still being capped by a large seller as shown by the large volume but small price changes. As soon as the large seller has finished offloading his shares it should be blue skies for MCR.
> 
> With record nickel prices, $100million in the bank and recent resource finds, the record quarterly result due out on the 29/01 should launch this stock to $2.50 then onto $3 by the end of March.




The chart to me looks very strong. It looks to me as soon as the $2.30 resitance line is broken, it push ahead into Blue Sky very quickly. I see this as a potentail breakout.


----------



## porkpie324

I'm not sure about that blue sky just yet MiningGuru, there seems to be an abundance of sellors, I closed all my positions on Friday. MCR like a lot of other miners seems to come under late afternoon selling pressure, (like today), so still a lot of nervous people. I do think that long term your right though, I will certainly be buying again on weakness I'll wait for the stochastic to turn down to an oversold position. porkpie


----------



## reece55

Porkpie
Not sure that there were an abundant amount of sellers here - close was right at the top today on nice volume. In fact, IMO I see a lot of buyers here. MCR has recovered nicely from the dip in early Jan and is tantalizingly close to breaking that important 2.30 barrier. Will it happen tomorrow - we will just have to wait and see but I think this one is setting itself up for it's next move. Nickel is the one metal I believe that still has more in it and MCR is a good way to get exposure to it. Plus, have a look at Nickel's price per pound chart - broken out nicely of late. + Factor in the positive exchange rate movement in Aus - US for the Company. Not much to complain about here! Best of luck to all holders! 

Cheers


----------



## theasxgorilla

The 1yr Nickel spot chart tells a tale...the breakout is clearly apparent.


----------



## theasxgorilla

reece55 said:
			
		

> Plus, have a look at Nickel's price per pound chart - broken out nicely of late. + Factor in the positive exchange rate movement in Aus - US for the Company. Not much to complain about here! Best of luck to all holders!




Doesn't a strong AUD/USD exchange rate disadvantage MCR?  If AUD strengthens then their relative AUD profit shrinks.


----------



## reece55

HAHAHA....... ignore me..........   

You are on the mark here asxgorilla - I obviously haven't taken my pills this morning!!!

Thanks for posting the Nickel chart - can someone pm me on how to display charts?

Cheers


----------



## theasxgorilla

What I do like here is that Nickel has broken out inspite of USD strength.  As Nickel is priced in USD (like most metals) a strengthening of the USD usually sees commidities fall to keep their prices relative in USD terms, just as we've seen in the last couple of months.


----------



## chops_a_must

porkpie324 said:
			
		

> I'm not sure about that blue sky just yet MiningGuru, there seems to be an abundance of sellors, I closed all my positions on Friday. MCR like a lot of other miners seems to come under late afternoon selling pressure, (like today), so still a lot of nervous people. I do think that long term your right though, I will certainly be buying again on weakness I'll wait for the stochastic to turn down to an oversold position. porkpie



What the hell are you talking about? MCR went up another 4c in the last 30 mins of trade today that I wasn't watching, and closed on the high. And for the last week and a half, it hasn't gone below its opening price and done very similar things as it did today. (It would be a day traders dream being on this stock lately.) These are pretty strong signs to me. Along with the gradual increase in volume towards resistance, while still strongly climbing. It's almost a classic textbook pre-breakout situation. And now that SMY has broken out, everyone will be all over the nicklers.

Anyway, I'm popping my cherry with a faux analysis on this thread. Be kind.   






Momentum has been building, and very similar to the momentum before its last breakout. If we can get a continuation of the positive trend on the MACD, it may well breakout again. Anyway, hope that chart helps.


----------



## chops_a_must

And a gap up on the opening this morning. Even though my information seems a bit scratchy, it looks good. Watch out!


----------



## reece55

Nice solid breakout this morning.... at 2.47 as we speak, up 8% today.......

Good time to be long in this one....... All the best to holders, with Nickel rising the way it is this stock is primed to soar..... I see 2.50 as the next step to overcome, hopefully it will break today...

Cheers


----------



## porkpie324

Dear Choppy, you don't have to listen to me, infact just as well you did'nt I was only posting as I have been reading the quotes, yes in hindsight I should have held another couple of days, but I chose to close my cfd positions last Friday for some very healthy prophets, also did the same with SMY but I'm holding IGO( I think these will go a bit higher yet). I am well aware of the technicals and will now wait for a pullback. BTW I still hold some physical shares. porkpie


----------



## chops_a_must

porkpie324 said:
			
		

> Dear Choppy, you don't have to listen to me, infact just as well you did'nt I was only posting as I have been reading the quotes, yes in hindsight I should have held another couple of days, but I chose to close my cfd positions last Friday for some very healthy prophets, also did the same with SMY but I'm holding IGO( I think these will go a bit higher yet). I am well aware of the technicals and will now wait for a pullback. BTW I still hold some physical shares. porkpie



I just don't understand why you would be closing positions on any in nickel right now. Ah well, as long as it met your targets, that's all that matters.


----------



## wintermute

I was looking at this on the weekend... I had previously looked at getting in back in August, but chose MRE instead... looks like I should have chosen both!! 

Anyone know roughly what price nickel concentrate gets?? I'm assuming quite a lot lower than nickel metal... based on their 1st quarter report it would seem to be a bit less than $20,000 AU / tonne, though that includes their hedging..... Wanted to try and do a profit forecast, but a bit hard without knowing what they are receiving (for the non hedged production), including cobalt and copper credits... 

Tony.


----------



## MiningGuru

reece55 said:
			
		

> N
> Good time to be long in this one....... All the best to holders, with Nickel rising the way it is this stock is primed to soar..... I see 2.50 as the next step to overcome, hopefully it will break today...
> 
> Cheers




2.50 has now broken. Lets see where it will end up!


----------



## wintermute

OK found my answer  

from the chairmans address to shareholders...

_Mincor receives 65% of the metal value from our processing
arrangements with BHP Billiton, who provide an essential service in
concentrating and smelting our ore._

Time to do some calculations  

Tony.


----------



## Freeballinginawetsuit

porkpie324 said:
			
		

> Dear Choppy, you don't have to listen to me, infact just as well you did'nt I was only posting as I have been reading the quotes, yes in hindsight I should have held another couple of days, but I chose to close my cfd positions last Friday for some very healthy prophets, also did the same with SMY but I'm holding IGO( I think these will go a bit higher yet). I am well aware of the technicals and will now wait for a pullback. BTW I still hold some physical shares. porkpie





Yep you should have waited a bit longer Porky with MCR and SMY, IGO are still lagging and have slipped under the markets radar ATM


----------



## chops_a_must

wintermute said:
			
		

> Anyone know roughly what price nickel concentrate gets?? I'm assuming quite a lot lower than nickel metal... based on their 1st quarter report it would seem to be a bit less than $20,000 AU / tonne, though that includes their hedging..... Wanted to try and do a profit forecast, but a bit hard without knowing what they are receiving (for the non hedged production), including cobalt and copper credits...
> Tony.



I looked at a similar thing a while back that I posted earlier:

"RE: Cobalt Capacity 

We make money from Cobalt as a by-product recovered from our nickel mining operations. As such we do get the benefit of any price increases in Cobalt. The total value of by-product copper and cobalt together is about 3% of our revenue."

Hope that helps also.


----------



## chops_a_must

Gapped up another 15c on the open. Any guesses where this is likely to stop?


----------



## theasxgorilla

chops_a_must said:
			
		

> Gapped up another 15c on the open. Any guesses where this is likely to stop?




The ferocity of the buying is starting to suggest takeover to me.


----------



## wintermute

not looking like my bid in at 2.31 is going to be filled.... thought I'd try the "all gaps must be filled" approach... takeover is possible I guess.... could also be that people are waking up to what sort of profits they are making with current nickel prices... I don't know why it is that whenever I've decided yes I want to buy this, it shoots up just before I get the chance... grumble grumble... then again the market in general has been very up lately, could be due for a few bad days at which point my order may get filled... one can hope  

Tony.


----------



## chops_a_must

wintermute said:
			
		

> not looking like my bid in at 2.31 is going to be filled....



Lol!

Looking at the chart, if it does fall, 2.50 might be a better bet. Did you end up getting a profit forecast by any chance?


> theasxgorilla
> The ferocity of the buying is starting to suggest takeover to me.



Well, they do have agreements with BHP, and BHP would probably do anything at the moment to lift their flagging SP. Haven't seen them talk about putting themselves in a takeover position, but anything is possible I guess.


----------



## wintermute

I came up with a rough figure which made me decide I wanted to buy... I should do a proper one as now I can't remember what that figure was.. I have a scrap of paper with some figures on it, but not sure whats what LOL... I think I came up with somewhat higher (only a few cents) than the EPS the analysts are forecasting.... One variable I don't know yet is the mine life!! if it is short then that could be a reason for the low p/e ratio...

I'll do it again, and this time I'll record all the details properly! but I won't necessarily release the info till I have my parcel 

Tony.


----------



## chops_a_must

wintermute said:
			
		

> One variable I don't know yet is the mine life!! if it is short then that could be a reason for the low p/e ratio...



The last I remember reading it was 2013. But they have since found a big nickel reserve in one of their mine extensions. So, I have no idea. But they do have a big exploration programme, as well as a tungsten/ uranium project. What's the easiest way to find mine life stats?


----------



## chops_a_must

One piece in the puzzle perhaps?

http://imagesignal.comsec.com.au/asxdata/20070124/pdf/00687076.pdf


----------



## chops_a_must

Some very unusual price action. Anyway, it briefly filled the gap above 2.50, after being in the 2.40s, and now back into the 2.60s. Now back into the 2.50s. Massive volumes being done for this stock anyway.


----------



## wintermute

I just looked at the 5 year monthly chart, and RSI is showing it is way overbought.... weekly is edging its way towards overbought too... when MRE did this it had a massive pullback... thinking about taking my 2.31 bid out now, as we may even see it pull back to $2.00.... The latest nickel prices have gone up very very quickly, could see a pull back on those, and if that happens panic might set in... still might be a chance to get some at a bargain price 

Tony.


----------



## chops_a_must

wintermute said:
			
		

> I just looked at the 5 year monthly chart, and RSI is showing it is way overbought.... weekly is edging its way towards overbought too... when MRE did this it had a massive pullback... thinking about taking my 2.31 bid out now, as we may even see it pull back to $2.00.... The latest nickel prices have gone up very very quickly, could see a pull back on those, and if that happens panic might set in... still might be a chance to get some.



My analysis is the same. Already sold out of MRE today, and it looks like MCR has run out of steam as well. We've probably seen a top in the nickel price, so time to take profits I think.


----------



## j4mesa

chops, it seems that your analysis slipped out a bit......
still running ...see how it goes today..........
think might be going $3  ??? 
:


----------



## wintermute

yeah certainly thinking I should have bought when I had the chance, but just looked at the chart and monthly RSI is just about at 90, daily has just popped over 80 and weekly is just about to poke it's head above 80.... I think a pullback is imminent, but how big it will be is another question... maybe back to $2.30 to fill that gap??? I can dream 

Tony.


----------



## chops_a_must

j4mesa said:
			
		

> chops, it seems that your analysis slipped out a bit......
> still running ...see how it goes today..........
> think might be going $3  ???
> :



I bought back in after the indicators then reversed... strongly. Momentum is still looking good. Not sure if the RSI is a good indicator at the moment as there is panic buying for nickel, and the other nicklers are still climbing whilst above 80.


----------



## MiningGuru

Will this share break through the $3 barrier today?

It has touched on it, but will it close above?

I think that if it does it will shoot quickly up to the $3.20s

The chart indicators are still very strong on this share. Nickel is still very strong.


----------



## Seneca60BC

Seneca60BC said:
			
		

> i may be the fool here - still holding em.




LOL i stand corrected


----------



## Freeballinginawetsuit

Well I'm out for the moment, all the best for those still holding, MCR is a good Company.


----------



## porkpie324

MCR is the stand out nickel miner today, its up 11c as I type with plenty on the buy side.


----------



## Kauri

You would almost think that there is something more than the nickel price driving this one..


----------



## porkpie324

Perhaps there sellng SMY & IGO and buying MCR, BTW I've just opened a pos with IGO, after I took prophets on Tues/Weds there's been a sell off in IGO. porkpie


----------



## Freeballinginawetsuit

Yep its crazy stuff, MCR's cap is up to over 600mil ish, finger burning stuff in the short term IMO. 
KZL's cap is 1 bill at today's prices yet no one wants a bar of them.... ah its all about whats in flavour I presume.


----------



## porkpie324

MCR now up 14c all during the last hour, the other n miners yet to follow, must be something going on, I wonder if Chicken is buying! porkpie


----------



## Seneca60BC

Really, this is crazy - who could be buying?  an institution?


----------



## Seneca60BC

porkpie324 said:
			
		

> Perhaps there sellng SMY & IGO and buying MCR, BTW I've just opened a pos with IGO, after I took prophets on Tues/Weds there's been a sell off in IGO. porkpie




What did the prophets say? LOL


----------



## wintermute

well I'm certainly not buying now!! the monthly chart is looking like it is on the last stage of going parabolic to me!

Tony.


----------



## porkpie324

All three indicators on your chart look good to me, I'm looking to open positions. porkpie


----------



## wintermute

short term I assume porkpie!!! yeah it might be about to shoot up, but how long before it crashes back down?? The RSI is grossly overbought, that is my main concern, as is the shape of the uptrend!  I'm expecting a good 1/2 yearly report which is why I was originally going to buy in, but it's looking very scary to me now! 

Tony.


----------



## chops_a_must

Why do I get the feeling this is going to be both my best and worst trade for 2007? Lol!


----------



## porkpie324

When trading resource stocks a sharp correction is always on the cards ie KZL (makes my eyes water at the mention). At the moment apart from some physical shares I'm out of MCR, I bought back into IGO & SMY using CFD's on Friday, MCR's trading late Friday was a suprise to me, but I read a report yesterday comparing IGO,MCR&SMY which does to a certain extent explain fridays MCR move, I was also expecting a larger nickel LME correction on the outcome of the dispute at Sudbury on the labour settlement, another reason why I closed most of my positions on Weds & Thurs.
 BTW if anyone is interested in reading the mentioned report I found it on the Mincor website(mincor.com.au) under investor relations. porkpie


----------



## chops_a_must

porkpie324 said:
			
		

> When trading resource stocks a sharp correction is always on the cards ie KZL (makes my eyes water at the mention). At the moment apart from some physical shares I'm out of MCR, I bought back into IGO & SMY using CFD's on Friday, MCR's trading late Friday was a suprise to me, but I read a report yesterday comparing IGO,MCR&SMY which does to a certain extent explain fridays MCR move, I was also expecting a larger nickel LME correction on the outcome of the dispute at Sudbury on the labour settlement, another reason why I closed most of my positions on Weds & Thurs.
> BTW if anyone is interested in reading the mentioned report I found it on the Mincor website(mincor.com.au) under investor relations. porkpie



I think it explains the recent run, but not Friday's action. Most of the reports I've seen about MCR put them at a value between 2.35 and 2.60, so I'm thinking we'll see them at about 2.50 before long.


----------



## chops_a_must

MCR getting absolutely pounded at the moment. Down nearly 5%.


----------



## ktrianta

Down only 7 cents today. Bit of profit taking. Not surprising given the run it has had. Still plenty of upside one would think.


----------



## Seneca60BC

nice half year result - better than I expected - $37 million profit.

What you think ?  - Good result ?


----------



## porkpie324

Yes a good result, although the substantial increase in profit is mainly due to the increase in the price of nickel, not a too bigger increase in produced concentrate. MCR is working on this though with increased exploration, I'm sure MCRs output will be more un the future and I remain a long term fan of Mincor, porkpie


----------



## Lert

MCR were 5% down at one stage this morning but buyers have moved back in..  I thought the results were pretty good and the dividend is nice too..


----------



## wintermute

So as not to polute the XAO thread Chops have a look at the date I said MCR looked grossly overbought.  3rd Feb. have a look at the daily chart below. 


Now this is the only time I remember mentioning something being overbought on RSI and look what happened... It pulled back I got it VERY wrong didn't I??? have a look at the weekly chart and you will see it touched 80 as well and dropped off. The monthly is still in well overbought territory. 

So if anyone listened to what I said and waited a few days they would have bought in  at perhaps up to an 20% discount.... 

Tony.


----------



## chops_a_must

wintermute said:


> Now this is the only time I remember mentioning something being overbought on RSI and look what happened... It pulled back I got it VERY wrong didn't I??? have a look at the weekly chart and you will see it touched 80 as well and dropped off. The monthly is still in well overbought territory.
> 
> So if anyone listened to what I said and waited a few days they would have bought in  at perhaps up to an 20% discount....
> 
> Tony.



Yes, you did.



			
				wintermute said:
			
		

> I just looked at the 5 year monthly chart, and RSI is showing it is way overbought.... weekly is edging its way towards overbought too... when MRE did this it had a massive pullback... thinking about taking my 2.31 bid out now, as we may even see it pull back to $2.00.... The latest nickel prices have gone up very very quickly, could see a pull back on those, and if that happens panic might set in... still might be a chance to get some at a bargain price



You said this at $2.50, and again at $3. If they had listened to you, they would have lost by now. After your prediction of $2, the lowest they have gone is ~ $2.50. I doubt they would have got in at all, thinking it was going lower. And by the way, far from being overbought currently, it looks like breaking from above $3.20. When there is panic buying (as there is with nickel) using a retroactively correct indicator like a monthly RSI is about a month too late and useless.


----------



## wintermute

Hmmm I didn't go back to the previous posts (as I didn't remember back that far). the first one was at $2.75 approx if you look at the chart not $2.50... then it went up and I said maybe I should have bought, but decided it was looking way over bought at around $3.10 and it pulled back to below the initial point where I said a pull-back was probable, ie back to around the $2.50 point.

The only thing I said which was dubious was that it might go back to $2.00 which in hindsight was way off.  That was not based on using RSI, I don't even remember why I decided on that figure, I was probably remembering my experience with CSM, $2.25 would have been more reasonable but still way off in hindsight. 

So if my using RSI to predict a pull-back was VERY wrong I'd like to know why  Anyone who would not buy on the dip after the pull-back, would likely have sold at a loss if they bought at $3.00 and then had it pull back to $2.60. so I don't see your point... 

It seems you are bitter about my posts on MCR and saying I thought it would pull back which it subsequently did. I can't understand why.  If using RSI is a month too late, how come I picked it a week before the event??  If it makes you feel any better, I didn't get my order filled as I had it at $2.31... everyone is responsible for their own decisions in life, I made a mistake on my buy target, I did not make a mistake on whether the pullback was imminent.

You will note that later on I said I didn't know how far it would pull back, but MAYBE the gap at $2.31 would be filled, I then said one can dream, indicating I didn't think it was likely it would drop that far!

Believe what you want chops, but for someone who posted along the same lines I was at the time you seem to have done somewhat of a 180. If my posts backed up what you were thinking at the time and you made a wrong decision because I posted something along the same lines, and you thought it verified your line of thinking I am sorry, but no matter where you go you will find people who agree with and those that oppose your thinking, just because someone else is thinking the same way doesn't make them right, just as someone else thinking differently doesn't make them wrong. 

I note that you sold all of your MRE around the time I made the first post on MCR, something I also did not that long after (12th Feb to be precise). Do I regret it?? NO, because I made 155% profit on it, and at the time it was what I thought I should do.  Do you regret selling your MRE?? did your comment affect whether I sold mine or not?? possibly, but did I once think that it was anyone other than me that made the decision? NO. 

Anyway I only posted because the tone of your initial post on the XAO thread seemed pretty hostile, and I wasn't sure why...... It would appear you feel that my posts on MCR have affected your (or someone else's) decisions on what to do with MCR, in a negative way. If that is the case then I apologise as that is the last thing I want when writing posts. I think I need to put the sig on that I have on another forum! will do so now  

Cheers

Tony.


----------



## chops_a_must

wintermute said:


> Hmmm I didn't go back to the previous posts (as I didn't remember back that far). the first one was at $2.75 approx if you look at the chart not $2.50...
> 
> So if my using RSI to predict a pull-back was VERY wrong I'd like to know why  Anyone who would not buy on the dip after the pull-back, would likely have sold at a loss if they bought at $3.00 and then had it pull back to $2.60. so I don't see your point...
> 
> It seems you are bitter about my posts on MCR and saying I thought it would pull back which it subsequently did. I can't understand why.  If using RSI is a month too late, how come I picked it a week before the event??
> 
> Anyway I only posted because the tone of your initial post on the XAO thread seemed pretty hostile, and I wasn't sure why...... It would appear you feel that my posts on MCR have affected your (or someone else's) decisions on what to do with MCR, in a negative way. If that is the case then I apologise as that is the last thing I want when writing posts. I think I need to put the sig on that I have on another forum! will do so now
> 
> Cheers
> 
> Tony.



Uh uh. At the time you posted MCR dipped to just below 2.50 intraday. They would have lost because they most likely would have had to buy in higher than what they sold. Anyone can pick a dip. I can say a stock looks overbought, and retrospectively say, "oh there it was". I can say that about almost every stock out there. And I doubt you truly picked it anyway as your order never got filled. That's a pretty clear indication to me.

I'm not annoyed, because every trade I have made on MCR and MRE has met my targets (at a substantial profit). I just think it is irresponsible to predict dips on a strongly uptrending stock. Especially with the RSI as it becomes useless when fundamentals change either positively or negatively. And that is the same reason for the negative response in the XAO thread. 

People downramping strong stocks for their own benefit is effectively the same as ramping in my eyes.


----------



## wintermute

yes I'm a shameless downramper! I predicted a pullback when it was around $3.10 it dropped it took five days to work it's way down to its lowest point at around $2.55, it finished that day at around $2.70, the next day it opened lower probably around the $2.60 mark, over the next few days it made its way back to close again a bit over $3.00... I'm sure this was all because of my evil downramping!!! 

I think you should re-read the posts without rose tinted glasses on, and you will see that there is no ill-intent, and I at no time said that MCR was a bad buy. I said I did want to buy, that I was expecting a good 1/4 report, but that I thought there would be better buying opportunities, and I would not BUY at the $3.00 mark... I at no point said anyone should sell!!!  I said a pullback, a pullback is an opportunity to buy at a better price, not a signal to sell, nmentioning that I think a pullback is imminent is hardly irresponsible.... 

As I said I stuffed up on the $2.00 call, and I should not have mentioned a price without good evidence to support why I mentioned that price, in retrospect it was probably the pullbacks on MRE that I was thinking of, as it was observations on the behavoiur of MRE (being another nickeler) that prompted me to view MCR in the same way.  Subsequently when it took off in price as I said before, I implied it was unlikely that my bid at $2.31 would get filled... 

Think of me what you like, I'm sure others can make up their own minds. 

and just for the record, the monthly RSI is still over 80, watch the weekly, and when it once again reaches 80, then have a look and see if there is another pullback.  What the price will be at that time and what it will fall to, I don't know, and I'm certainly not saying wait till that happens to buy, just saying watch it, and see if it was pure co-incidence as you seem to imply if you check the charts, the monthly had been over for a while, the weekly and daily both touched 80 at around that day. Not everything is smoke and mirrors, and your assessment of me couldn't be further from the truth.  

Tony.


----------



## Sean K

Guys, I don't think there's been any deliberate downramping here, or anyone has been particularly hostile on the scale of things. Using indicators to predict advances and retractments is OK, but setting price targets is more complex obviously. Not sure how you can do with the RSI alone Tony, which you have admitted to some degree. I suppose the only other tools you could use to support this would be EW, Fib, Gann and support lines. In regard to getting expectations wrong, golly, who ever gets everything right? If we did, I would be on my boat right now somewhere in the Caribbean. You two would be most welcome!


----------



## wintermute

Thanks Kennas  Yes you are completely right the RSI cannot be used to predict the magnitude of a pull back, only that a pullback is lilkely, and any Tea leaf reading (ie analysing charts) is subjective and never 100% accurate either  (and at times can be monumentally wrong).

Another method such a support/resistance lines or channels, fib points etc (I haven't looked at Gann or Elliot Wave) needs to be used to work out a likely buy point, I chose to use the unfilled gap which failed  since then I have found out about trend channels, and will likely use them in future.

Once again I apologise if *anyone* got put off by the $2.00 figure I posted early on... as I said I'm not sure where it came from, if MCR had have been a speccie (something I had been analysing a lot) and not a producer, it may have been reasonable, but it wasn't reasonable, and I'm not sure what planet I was on when I posted it! 

Tony.


----------



## Sean K

Tony, you seem to use RSI quite a bit. What do you combine it with to give more validity to your assessment? I don't use it really, but perhaps I should be considering it??

My look at the RSI when combined with other indicators is telling me that this is pretty bullish at the moment and it will most probably break through the short term resistance in this ascending triangle. Looks like a pretty good set up actually for a significant break up. A break down though ascending support line and then around $2.75 and it's looking untidy.


----------



## wintermute

Hi Kennas, I tried to do a graph to illustrate, but having trouble with Incredible charts, doesn't seem to want to let me plot vertical lines... 

I generally just look for patterns, a run, and possibly some candles like a doji or shooting star, volume dropping off is also another sign.. I've learnt the hard way that you need to look back and make sure that there have been previous events too, as RSI in isolation at a particular point in time is useless if there are no previous events to compare it to. Every stock is different, some are predictable some are not, if you can work out a pattern for a stock then it gives you an edge for that stock. Also it is very rare for somenthing to be 100% predictable down to a day or two.. You won't be able to necessarily pick the top, and picking the bottom is something that has eluded me so far (and this is not something I think RSI can help with), generally I pick a figure I think is a possible low, and then put in a bid slightly higher than that. 

Also I'm coming to appreciate that you can fine tune it by looking at monthly weekly and daily to try and narrow it down,  I found that whilst monthly can be looking overbought on RSI, unless weekly is too, and probably daily then chances are it won't pull back till all are looking overbought, unless there is some external event  that triggers it.  A look at the last 10 years says that monthly on MCR the RSI is not particularly reliable, interestingly I have a big discrepancy between IC and big charts on where the RSI currently is for MCR with IC showing it down at about 71 and big charts showing it at about 90!!! something to be wary about... I need to investigate this a bit further. 

I've previously used RSI mainly for picking pull-backs in up trending stocks to work out an entry point.  Though it could also be used to work out when to sell if you are so inclined to take some profits. I did this successfully with CMO offloading part of my parcel at 3.2c  to be effectively free carried on the remainder. 

Looks like you might be right about MCR getting set for another run. My T/a skills are pretty crude, though I am learning  I'll do a bit more analysis of my own.  I still wonder about that gap down at 2.30, but since it didn't hit it on the 28th feb, I'm thinking it would have to be something pretty major to see MCR drop back to there now!  Just noticed one thing though... two spinning tops sitting on the upper bollinger band, this *could* signal a reversal back to the lower band, the break through 3.25 might be a while yet (of course a spinning top just represents indecision, so it could also mean a break up)....  I actually think that with the volatility lately due to uncertainty in the market, that charting is quite a bit less reliable than usual... I will sit back and observe for now 

Tony.


----------



## chops_a_must

kennas said:


> My look at the RSI when combined with other indicators is telling me that this is pretty bullish at the moment and it will most probably break through the short term resistance in this ascending triangle. Looks like a pretty good set up actually for a significant break up.



Definitely.

MCR is set for a re-rating as they have announced many new projects without movement in the SP. You can have a squiz at the VRE thread to get an indication on potential values.

Wintermute, the reason why the monthly RSI on MCR is so unreliable is because it is lagging new factors by a significant margin. It is effectively indicating past price action without taking into account new fundamental factors. And this is the same with any spec come production companies, especially as they continue to ramp up production etc. It is unfair to base current price action on previous price action when the current influences on the SP are totally different. When that is the case, the daily and weekly RSI is a better indicator and the monthly should be discarded.


----------



## wintermute

Thanks Chops  Still learning, so the input is appreciated!! 

Tony.


----------



## Sean K

chops_a_must said:


> Wintermute, the reason why the monthly RSI on MCR is so unreliable is because it is lagging new factors by a significant margin. It is effectively indicating past price action without taking into account new fundamental factors. And this is the same with any spec come production companies, especially as they continue to ramp up production etc. It is unfair to base current price action on previous price action when the current influences on the SP are totally different. When that is the case, the daily and weekly RSI is a better indicator and the monthly should be discarded.



Chops I agree but disagree to some extrent as well. Price action has all available information factored into it, including expectations of future production, commodity price appreciation, and market sentiment to name a few. While it is a lagging indicator, as most indicators are, future production expectations are in there. Somewhere.  As you say though daily, weekly, monthly indicators will look different across the board, and daily would factor in more immediate changes in information, while monthly will be a smoother indicator appropriate for measuring longer term trends.


----------



## chops_a_must

kennas said:


> Chops I agree but disagree to some extrent as well. Price action has all available information factored into it, including expectations of future production, commodity price appreciation, and market sentiment to name a few. While it is a lagging indicator, as most indicators are, future production expectations are in there. Somewhere.  As you say though daily, weekly, monthly indicators will look different across the board, and daily would factor in more immediate changes in information, while monthly will be a smoother indicator appropriate for measuring longer term trends.




I also agree and disagree to some extent as well. Mainly, price action having all available information factored into it. As they say, fundamentals lag the market. How often do you see good news abound a stock, for it to do nothing, only to break out a week later? MRE is a classic example of a stock not being rated fully until very late in the piece. MCR have also made announcements relating to new projects over the last 2 weeks, and it may have taken some time for the market to begin factoring that in.


----------



## Seneca60BC

Hey
Both you guys are professional in what you do - and congrats to both of you on your fantastic profits on MCR!!

Cheers
Shelton.


----------



## Peakey

Wow, great day for MCR and the MCR thread is a ghost town.....  oh I get it, you're all at the pub!!!! 

Who would've thought that the price of MCR would be above the price of SMY at this point? At one stage there a few months ago I was thinking of dividing my funds between MCR/SMY, but in the end decided to stick it into MCR.

Chart looks good, I'd interested to know what the EW guys make of it???

Good annoucement today as well didn't hurt either.

Cheers
Peakey


----------



## ktrianta

Yesterday was good, but 2day is even better. Touched $5.10 and hit the billiion dollar mkt cap club for a little while.

Not a chartist, but seems as though it has broken out of its upward trend channel. From my limited understanding of technical analysis, this would seem to be a very bullish break with more big gains to come.


----------



## Col Lector

Major positive ann for MCR (&JV 30% partner VRE) with approval/commencement of Carnilya Project. First production expected Jan 2008...

An extract...

"Based on the most recent nickel price forecasts by Royal Bank of Canada, the Project is forecast to
generate more than $200 million net cash before tax, with an internal rate of return (IRR) estimated at
more than 600%. The feasibility study estimates suggest that the project breaks even on a full capital
cost basis at a flat life-of-mine nickel price of A$14,300 per tonne."


----------



## porkpie324

Yes, it sure has been reasuring that whilst I have been tripping around Europe& the Carribean for the past 3 months that MCR have just about paid for the whole trip, glad I did'nt flick them before I left, porkpie


----------



## Peakey

While the price of nickel has been in a downward trend recently and with other nickel stocks following suit (MRE IGO AGM), MCR has held up very well.

The chart on MCR is starting to show a few positive signs.

Potential triangle breakout today, on increasing volume. All time high is $5.10. Also a nice white candle and closing on the high of the day, sets up nicely for tomorrow. (Having said that, I've probably just given it the 'kiss of death' now)  

Cheers
Peakey


----------



## porkpie324

The lure of all that cash in MCR was to much for me I sold my last 10k on 22nd June for $4.60.Your analysis Peaky is probably correct with MCR holding up well, so I will now be using CFDs for future trading in MCR and be buying on any weakness. porkpie


----------



## namkey

I've held Mincor since I bought them at 68c but I sold out on Monday. Looked like it was gonna take a breather so I moved on. Of course, since I sold out, it's gone up 5.6%. Still believe this one has plenty in it, though the falling Nickel price is putting a negative spin on it.

Seeing as the majority of valuation still use a very low Nickel price though, I wouldn't be surprised at all to see this one continue to perform strongly, especially with the management they have. Continueing to use their profits to reinvest heavily in new projects.


----------



## wrxsti

*Excellent news for View via Mincor quarterly*

Mincor's quarterly now out reveals excellent news for View Resources. I would expect View's quarterly to be released Thursday or Friday this week now, and am expecting a very good report - both financially, in Gold production volume output, and forward projections from Bronzewing (VRE - 100%). Coupled with this glowing report on the Nickel front at Carnilya Hill and Zone 29 via J/V partner Mincor (MCR - 70%), the road ahead looks solid, strong and highly profitable, with a high likelihood of further upside and increased resource upgrades via the latest strikes from ongoing and further exploration. 
Big overseas money now firmly invested in View with the Singapore consortium firmly entrenched as the No. 1 Ticketholder/Shareholder on the Top 20 register. Easy to see why when you fully analyse this stock as all the boxes have been ticked now, and it will be full speed ahead from here on in. 
The relevant excerpts referring to View Resources via the Mincor Quarterly are as follows:

• Carnilya Hill nickel project given go-ahead with
production to commence January 2008

Carnilya Hill (Mincor 70%)
During the quarter, the Company and its joint venture partner
took the decision to proceed with the development of a new
mining operation at Carnilya Hill. The new operation will be
based on an initial ore reserve of 483,500 tonnes @ 2.9%
nickel for 14,000 tonnes of contained nickel metal.
Life-of-mine capital costs are estimated at $28 million.
Production is expected to commence in January 2008 and
ramp up to a rate of approximately 15,000 tonnes of ore per
month, or approximately 5,000 tonnes of nickel per annum
(Mincor’s equity share 3,500 tonnes nickel).
By the end of June Mincor had, after a competitive tender
process, awarded the mining contract to RUC Mining
Contractors Pty Ltd. Surface site works commenced during
June, and as at the date of this report Mincor and RUC had
mobilised to site and underground rehabilitation of the
existing decline was well advanced.

Carnilya Hill (Mincor 70%)
Exploration drilling continued in the quarter with the
completion of two diamond drill-holes and a wedge for 2,112 metres.
CMD026 intersected 3.11 metres @ 3.66% nickel, from
698.74 metres down-hole. This includes 0.36 metres @
17.55% nickel from 698.74 metres down-hole, followed by
1.47 metres of weakly mineralised ultramafic rock and then
1.28 metres @ 1.64% nickel from 700.57 metres. All
intersections are close to true width.
The result indicates a major extension to the mineralised
channel structure at Carnilya Hill, with the new intersection
located 280 metres down-plunge of the last substantial
intersection (2.79 metres @ 8.61% nickel in CMD028W1) in
the mineralised channel. Recently completed down-hole
electro-magnetics (DHEM) indicate the presence of a strong
in-hole/off-hole EM anomaly centred below the new
intersection and extending both up-plunge and down-plunge
to the east and west.
A follow-up hole, CMD026W1, is a downward wedge off the
parent hole CMD026 and intersected 0.31 metres @ 6.05%
nickel from 706.82 metres in matrix and stringer sulphides
mineralisation.
Interpretation of the open intersections down-dip of
CMD028W1 and CMD021 indicates the possibility that the
host ultramafic extends beyond the previously interpreted
limits and if so, could link with CMD026 down-plunge.
CMD034 tested this theory and was drilled 115 metres
down-dip of CMD010W1.
While CMD034 did not intersect significant mineralisation, a
DHEM survey identified a moderate to strong off-hole
anomaly up-dip off the target position. The dimensions of
the anomaly extend from the known mineralisation in
CMD010W1 to a point 50 metres above CMD034. The
anomaly is considered an excellent target to extend the
current limit of the resource and will be tested in the future.
The grades intersected in CMD026, and CMD026W1 coupled
with the newly defined DHEM anomalies highlight the very
strong potential for the Carnilya Hill mineralisation to continue
down-plunge to the west.

Zone 29 East (Mincor 70%)
Zone 29 East is part of the Carnilya Hill Joint Venture and lies
adjacent to the Zone 29 ore body that was previously mined
by View Resources Ltd. The current resource at Zone 29 is
61,100 tonnes @ 3% nickel and is based on 28 reverse
circulation and one diamond drill-hole intersections.
A decision was made to conduct a diamond drilling program
to confirm the current Zone 29 resource as well as attempt to
extend the current mineralised trend. Four diamond drillholes
and a pre-collar (CMD029-CMD033) were drilled at
Zone 29 East for a total of 786.7 metres.
CMD030 and CMD031 were drilled within the Zone 29 East
resource and both returned modest intersections. CMD029
and CMD032 were drilled outside the resource, with only
CMD029 returning some encouragement. The drilling has
indicated the plunge the mineralisation may be steeper to the
east and remains open. This steepened trend will be tested
with the diamond tail of the CMD033 pre-collar.
The Zone 29 East resource will be updated with the latest
drill-hole intersections.
TABLE 4: Assay Results for Zone 29 East Drilling
HOLE ID INTERSECTION
From To Interval Ni%
CMD029 112 112.63 0.63 1.34
CMD030 141.8 143.28 1.48 2.08
CMD031 169.82 170.21 0.39 1.09
CMD032 222.8 222.85 0.05 NSA

Cash and Debt
As at 30 June 2007, Mincor had cash and receivables of
$237.98 million and creditors and accruals of $109.85
million, giving a net working capital position of $128.13
million.
During the quarter the Company made an initial payment of
$11.75 million to the shareholders of Goldfields Mine
Management Pty Ltd (GMM) as part of the $68.5 million
acquisition of that company. On 2 July Mincor made a
further payment of $50.75 million to the shareholders of
GMM. After taking account of that payment, Mincor’s net
working capital position on 2 July was $77.38 million. A
further $6 million (the balance of the $68.5 million purchase
price) remains payable subject to the meeting of certain
conditions pertaining to tenement licences.
During the quarter the Company terminated its $10 million
Revolving Facility with CBA.

wrxsti


----------



## porkpie324

Just as I took great profits on MCR, the present weakness was to much for me I started accumalating the shares last week and this week, the anouncement did not dissapoint either I think there's great potential here. They have fallen further today though, so may need some strong short term nerve's.porkpie


----------



## Buffettology

Cant beleive no talk a bout this one lately.

It hit a dramatic low on the day the news was released the Director of exploration died.  Since then, it has shot up (30% or so?).  Huge gains could have been made on this one lately.


----------



## reece55

Buffett
The one thing I found exceptionally good about MCR was their hedge book disclosed in the financials - I don't know who did it, but they hedged their Nickel production in 08 - 09 at absolutely record prices. I have been meaning to do a mock DCF calculation on the group to come up with a theoretically NPV, but whoever consulted to them on their forward contracts needs a good tap on the back, because unlike the Gold companies, these guys timed it perfectly. With the price of Nickel now half what it was, MCR could do the opposite of NCM by closing out their Nickel forwards and relying on spot for a profit!!!!!!!!!!!

Cheers


----------



## michael_selway

reece55 said:


> Buffett
> The one thing I found exceptionally good about MCR was their hedge book disclosed in the financials - I don't know who did it, but they hedged their Nickel production in 08 - 09 at absolutely record prices. I have been meaning to do a mock DCF calculation on the group to come up with a theoretically NPV, but whoever consulted to them on their forward contracts needs a good tap on the back, because unlike the Gold companies, these guys timed it perfectly. With the price of Nickel now half what it was, MCR could do the opposite of NCM by closing out their Nickel forwards and relying on spot for a profit!!!!!!!!!!!
> 
> Cheers




Hi do you know why in 2010 theres such a big drop forecast EPS than in 2009?

*Earnings and Dividends Forecast (cents per share) 
2007 2008 2009 2010 
EPS 51.3 68.3 77.1 31.9 
DPS 12.0 17.8 18.5 15.0 

EPS(c) PE Growth 
Year Ending 30-06-08 68.3 5.3 33.1% 
Year Ending 30-06-09 77.1 4.7 12.9% *

Thanks

MS


----------



## gfresh

Acquiring futher assets.. 



Australian nickel producer Mincor Resources NL (ASX: MCR) has further expanded its strategic growth footprint in the Kambalda Nickel District of Western Australia after reaching agreement with BHP Billiton Limited, its off-take partner, to acquire a major package of highly prospective nickel sulphide exploration tenements in the District. The agreement covers the “Bluebush Line”, which contains numerous high-grade nickel occurrences extending over a strike length of more than 40km. 

These include drill intersections of up to 7.15 metres @ 6.14% nickel in the advanced stage Stockwell Prospect.

The Bluebush Line is believed to be the only remaining surface exposure of the basal contact in the Kambalda Nickel District not yet controlled by long-term holders. The basal contact is the stratigraphic position that hosts all known Kambalda nickel deposits.

The Bluebush Line contains numerous known nickel occurrences, including those at Cameron, Lawry, Grimsby and Stockwell. 

WMC Resources Ltd completed 34,000 metres of drilling at Stockwell/Grimsby in the late 1990s, outlining a substantial zone of nickel sulphide mineralisation.

No exploration has been conducted anywhere on the Bluebush Line since 2001, leaving the area wide open to the recent advances in geological thinking, geophysical techniques and deep drilling capabilities that have proved so successful for Mincor since it first entered the District nearly 7
years ago.

“We are thrilled at the opportunity to acquire this outstanding package of ground,” said Mincor’s Managing Director, David Moore. “These may be the last of the tenements in the Kambalda Nickel District with genuine near-surface prospectivity.

“We intend to commence an aggressive exploration program as soon as possible, with our focus initially on the Stockwell/Grimsby area, where we believe there is clear potential for the early delineation of a substantial nickel resource,” he continued.

“However, we will also aggressively pursue the entire 40 kilometre strike length of the basal contact along the Bluebush Line – surely one of the best exploration positions in the entire Kambalda District. Outside of three prospect areas, there is not a single drill-hole extending to more than 200 metres in depth.

“This acquisition is further evidence of Mincor’s ability to continue to grow its successful Kambalda nickel business. Opportunities of this quality are rare at any time, and especially so in the current bull market for resource assets,” Mr Moore said.

Under the agreement, Mincor will sub-lease the Bluebush tenements (with rights to explore for and mine nickel) from BHP Billiton until the formal termination of the Nickel Refinery Act, after which it will acquire the tenements outright.

The sub-lease and acquisition terms are confidential but are not considered material to Mincor. The deal includes an off-take agreement for the nickel produced from the tenements. The gold rights to the tenements are held by Gold Fields Limited.

The sub-lease is subject to Ministerial approval and the normal administrative procedures of the relevant Acts. The sale agreement is subject to the termination of the Nickel Refinery (Western Mining Corporation Limited) Agreement Act 1968, Ministerial approval, and normal third party consents under a variety of subsidiary agreements.


----------



## ROE

This a reasonable resource stock that get a big of a hammer lately so today is my day to jump in.

It also helps knowing the director just paid 20% premium from my purchase price.


----------



## imajica

MINCOR DELIVERS $31.3M INTERIM NET PROFIT,
MAINTAINS STRONG INTERIM DIVIDEND


• Record half-yearly production of 8,196 tonnes nickel in concentrate.
• Net Profit after Tax of $31.3 million for the half year.
• Strong growth in underlying earnings over previous corresponding period.
• Steady interim dividend of 6 cents per share fully franked.
• Cash balance of $110.8M at 31 December 2007 and no debt.
• New mines under development and aggressive exploration underway


Australian nickel producer Mincor Resources NL (ASX: MCR) has delivered another strong half yearly
earnings result, today announcing a $31.3 million net profit after tax for the six months to 31 December
2007 (after writing off $6.3 million in exploration expenditures) and a strong increase in underlying
earnings over the previous corresponding period.
The profit result for the current period was impacted by the extreme volatility in the nickel price between
July and September 2007. The final nickel prices for April to June of 2007 were established during July
to September, and the recognition in the current period of these provisional pricing adjustments reduced
the headline profit number from an excellent $39.7 million (Dec 2006: $37.2 million). The net profit
translated into earnings per share of 15.6 cents (Dec 2006: 19.0 cents).
The robust performance – which was underpinned by record nickel-in-concentrate production of 8,196
tonnes (Dec 2006: 6,888 tonnes) and continued strong operating margins – enabled Mincor to declare
a steady interim dividend of 6 cents per share (fully franked). This will bring the total dividends paid out
by Mincor to its shareholders since 2003 to $56.9 million. The record date for the dividend is 29
February 2008, and the payment date is 31 March 2008.
Operational earnings (revenues minus cash costs excluding provisional pricing adjustments) for the
period under review were $91.9 million (Dec 2006: $76.3 million) and Earnings before Interest, Tax,
Depreciation and Amortisation (EBITDA) were $71.1 million (Dec 2006: $67.84 million). The
recognition of the provisional pricing adjustments referred to above reduced the latter figure from a very
strong $83.1 million.
Cashflows from operations remained exceptionally strong at $70.60 million. After major investments in
acquisitions ($50.3 million), new production capacity ($25.5 million) and exploration ($5.4 million), as
well as paying $37 million in income tax, Mincor’s cash balance at 31 December 2007 was $110.8
million (Dec 2006: $87.4 million).
Mincor’s nickel production for the half year generated increased gross revenues of $164.9 million (Dec
2006: $147.0 million). Average cash costs were A$6.26 per pound of payable nickel, representing a
5% improvement over the A$6.59 per pound incurred during financial year 2006/7.
The average received nickel price was A$14.05/lb (Dec 2006: A$14.26), enabling Mincor to generate an
excellent cash margin of A$7.79 per pound payable nickel (Dec 2006: A$8.11 per pound).
“Mincor continues its outstanding record of delivery,” commented Managing Director, David Moore.
“This will continue through 2008 as we bring two new mines into production and complete our
feasibility work on the exciting Durkin Deeps project, while pursuing our aggressive exploration
programmes in the Kambalda Nickel District and elsewhere.”
MEDIA RELEASE
Tuesday, 19 February 2008


----------



## MRC & Co

Good company, good management, good profits, good technicals!  Looks like this company just experienced a breakout, should be a good run for those on board!  All the best!


----------



## chops_a_must

Read this bizarre article tonight. Not sure what screen this person was looking at  :

Nickel miner Mincor Resources NL has announced a $31.3 million net profit after tax for the six months to December 2007, 16 per cent down on its $37.1 million profit for last year's corresponding period.

The company's shares closed down 27 cents, or 8.7 per cent, to $3.36 each today.

Might look at getting in, near support, stable earnings... look to see if can get to that resistance near the top somewhere...


----------



## explod

chops_a_must said:


> Read this bizarre article tonight. Not sure what screen this person was looking at  :
> 
> Nickel miner Mincor Resources NL has announced a $31.3 million net profit after tax for the six months to December 2007, 16 per cent down on its $37.1 million profit for last year's corresponding period.
> 
> The company's shares closed down 27 cents, or 8.7 per cent, to $3.36 each today.
> 
> Might look at getting in, near support, stable earnings... look to see if can get to that resistance near the top somewhere...




Not sure if you made a typo Chops,  I see it the other way.........................................
,, cheers


----------



## chops_a_must

explod said:


> Not sure if you made a typo Chops,  I see it the other way.........................................
> ,, cheers




That's what I'm saying, it was quoted from an article. It was up 8.7%, not down...

http://www.wabusinessnews.com.au/en-story/1/60823/Mincor-shares-slide-after-16-interim-profit-loss


----------



## imajica

How can someone be that clueless and print an article that is completely wrong! IMO Mincor is ticking all the right boxes at the moment. great interim profit result - good solid dividend  - aggressive exploration planned - new mines opening - fundamentally you can't fault it at the moment


----------



## imajica

Mincor up nearly 4 % this morning and has rebounded nicely - seems that negative sentiment has dissolved and fundamentals are truly in play now


----------



## nioka

imajica said:


> Mincor up nearly 4 % this morning and has rebounded nicely - seems that negative sentiment has dissolved and fundamentals are truly in play now



 Mincor is only going through pre and ex dividend trading. There are those that held on for the dividend and those that sold pre dividend and rebought ex dividend at a bigger gap than the dividend. I've bought twice in the last week, the first with the dividend and the second ex dividend. I replaced half my redundant AGM with MCR. I chose MCR as my nickel investment based on a fundamental comparison with ZFX (presuming it is nickel after getting AGM) and SMY.


----------



## porkpie324

And don't forget IGO this junior nickel stock has outperformed all the others during this period. As for MCR I have certainly been adding during this period also, porkpie


----------



## MRC & Co

nioka said:


> Mincor is only going through pre and ex dividend trading.




Sure is.

I bought just before ExDiv and still holding.  Got the Div and expect a good run from this one now!  

Let this baby roll!


----------



## imajica

http://www.brr.com.au/event/41510

lengthy presentation at a conference on Boardrooom radio

very promising indeed, highly informative on MCR's current production profile and their exponential growth plans + their expansion into other base metals and even tenements with Uranium up to 1100 ppm


----------



## MRC & Co

Man, WTF happened to the volume of this one on Friday?  

Nickel price up.  MACD and RSI right near that mid-range and very bullish!  

Now gone ex-div, great recent results, this one could really be set for a big move over the coming weeks!


----------



## imajica

the rising price of nickel fares well for Mincor as most of their production is unhedged - with two new mines opening soon MCR will shine this year


----------



## MRC & Co

I agree imajica, though Im still waiting for this one to take off.  Its holding relatively steady, which is good considering the market is falling.

However, my copper and gold stocks are ALL green even throughout this downturn.  MCR is being held back at the moment, with a bit of a market upturn, we could see this one take off!  But first we need that positive sentiment (which appears gone once more at least at this very moment).


----------



## doogie_goes_off

Well here goes, my first attempt at nailing a macro-cycle on a nickel producer. I am considering using $3.60 as a trigger over the next 6 trading days to confirm my predicted third cyclical growth band and buy in for a $5 three month target, wish me luck!

See TA for my reasoning, fundametally I like this company too.

DYOR, I am not a real chartist, just a bloke with a good imagination.


----------



## eddyeagle

MCR up 3.64% on a day where the All Ords were down 163 (3%). This is a good sign and the stock is in a nice little uptrend at the moment. 

The open briefing released recently was very positive. 

Good profits, solid dividends, a diversified mine portfolio, good management. 

It surprises me that this stock doesnt receive more attention from fund managers and analysts...

I'm hoping for a return to the $5 glory days in the not too distant future!


----------



## imajica

Australian nickel producer Mincor Resources NL (ASX: MCR) has added further momentum to the
Feasibility Study on its 100%-owned Durkin Deeps Nickel Project in Kambalda after today announcing
a 42% increase in the Mineral Resource for the project to 18,800 tonnes of contained nickel metal.
Mincor said the substantial increase had been achieved from the first round of resource confirmation
drilling undertaken since the acquisition of the Project in July 2007, with two-thirds of the upgraded
resource now in the Indicated category.
Durkin Deeps is one of a number of key assets acquired by Mincor as part of its purchase of GMM Pty
Ltd last year, creating a substantial new production and exploration centre for the Company. The nearby
Otter Juan Mine is in production and is already making a strong contribution to the Company’s cash
flow and earnings, while the McMahon Project is being developed as a new $23 million mining
operation.
The new Durkin Deeps resource estimate of 18,800 tonnes of contained nickel metal compares with the
original resource of 13,200 tonnes announced when the GMM acquisition was completed. The new
resource estimate is based on 66 drill-hole intersections, including 6 confirmation intersections
completed by Mincor over the past few months.


----------



## MRC & Co

I was stopped out of this one around $3.10, still love the company and will look to move back in on some strength in XMJ.

Banks are having a bit of a little rally lately, which they were ultimately due for.


----------



## eddyeagle

Down to $2.61 today. All resource stocks getting hammered. Etrade has a P/E for this stock of 6.55. This is one stock that I will be topping up in the near future along with BHP and a few others that look great value.


----------



## ROE

too much love for the resource stock, it's their turn to get the hammer 
with US slow I don't know how China can continue to pay top dollar for resource commodity. Resource commodity price will need to drop much further than where they are today


----------



## imajica

Australian nickel producer Mincor Resources NL (ASX: MCR) has reaped almost immediate benefits
from its recent acquisition of the Bluebush Line tenement package in the Kambalda Nickel District,
today announcing that it had estimated a Mineral Resource containing 20,800 tonnes of nickel metal at
the Stockwell prospect.Mincor announced the acquisition of the highly prospective ground package – which contains numerous
high-grade nickel occurrences over a strike length of more than 40km – in November last year.
The resource estimation is based on 51 drill holes completed by WMC Resources Ltd in the late 1990’s.
Data verification and quality control has been completed over the past two months, with the quality and
density of the drilling allowing for the estimation of JORC-standard Indicated and Inferred Resources.


----------



## doogie_goes_off

Well I had no reason to buy in from a market interest point of view, but it looks like a bargain now. Some long term analysis is now required using a conservative nickel price.


----------



## imajica

with a poor lead from the DOW, Mincor has bucked the trend and has seen some strong buying this morning. market news sinking in I guess!

it was only a week ago or so when this was wallowing at around $2.60
just touched $3.09


----------



## MRC & Co

Yeh, it seems to have found some good support around the 2.60s area.  

Appears for now, the commodity shake-out is over, perhaps a launch up from a higher base now, but volatility is still a worry.

I am within an inch of taking a bite of this one, added KZL back to my portfolio yesterday at its low for the day, following the postive divergence of the XMJ.  Will probably buy this one at close.


----------



## nioka

MCR is a stock that is slipping under the radar. The latest company report makes interesting reading. They quote.

 On track for 20 years at 20K tonnes nickel production.

 Market cap under $600M and with $110m cash at bank.

 On track for record production FY 08 with further production growth FY09.

 They quote; 
                 RBC Capital target price $3.70
                 Patersons target price   $3.85
                 Argonaut target price    $3.60

Looking at their figures I can not see why Zinifex chose AGM ahead of MCR. No matter which way I look at it I find MCR the best investment. Zinifex did me a favor by making me sell AGM and investing in MCR and I have my first dividend cheque in the bank as proof. The only worry I have is that MCR must be an attractive takeover target at the moment.


----------



## oldblue

Ssshh.....
I'm a holder in MCR and have been quietly adding whenever the radar fogs over.
I wonder though if the arrangement that MCR has with BHP as its offtake partner may be a reason why the price isn't higher? Perhaps it makes MCR less attrative as a takeover prospect, knowing that production is committed to BHP at market prices.


----------



## MRC & Co

I personally, bought this one the other day at 2.77 I beleive, with stops around 2.60 where strong support is seen.  

Doing ok off it for now.  

But I agree, should be doing better than currently is, but that's no problem for now.


----------



## eddyeagle

Just read the latest presentation and it sounds very good indeed. Exciting times ahead. I think MCR has very competent management. 

I think the recent underperformance is simply due to nervy investors switching from small caps to larger, less volatile companies... 

When the markets smooth out later in the year, I would hope MCR would start to approach the analyst's targets of around $4.


----------



## MRC & Co

eddyeagle said:


> I think the recent underperformance is simply due to nervy investors switching from small caps to larger, less volatile companies...
> 
> When the markets smooth out later in the year, I would hope MCR would start to approach the analyst's targets of around $4.




Has there been a shift?  

Last 12 trading days, these are the % moves of major OZ indices:  

XAO:  3.0  
XSO:  3.3  (small caps)
XMJ:  12.4 (materials)
XFJ:  -4.7  (financials)

Small caps are faring well alongside larger XAO listed companies.  Considering MCR is also a materials company, it should be outperforming perhaps........?

Will the market smooth out later in the year?  Cannot tell.

Analyst price target of $4?  I would take that with a grain of salt.

Agree on one thing though, MCR is a good company and I still hold.  Nice +9% in a week 

Good luck!


----------



## Squawkbox

Might it be IMC Resources, the backer of troubled View Resources (VRE), that has its eye on Mincor!?


----------



## jonojpsg

ANyone seen the quarterly yet?  Numbers look great - production on track for annual target (4800 tonnes of Ni in quarter).  Great cash flow, with current NET cash position of $97m 

With so much potential going forward (their target is 20000 tonnes of Ni per year for the next 20 years) and possibly even greater targets than that given their tenements positions!!

Must be looking at some solid SP improvements in the near future


----------



## MRC & Co

Yeh, I got out of this one earlier.  Disappointing, made a decent profit, but should have let it run further, too tight with my stops in such a volatile environment.

Good luck to all those aboard!


----------



## doogie_goes_off

I am still waiting for $3.60 trigger buy price, may see it tommorow as people digest the news, could this finally be the breakout I am looking for?? I will be watching closely.


----------



## eddyeagle

Another very solid report!
I'm just wondering if anything thinks MCR would be a possible takeover target for the OXR/ZFX entity? They are looking at getting into Nickel...


----------



## MRC & Co

doogie_goes_off said:


> I am still waiting for $3.60 trigger buy price, may see it tommorow as people digest the news, could this finally be the breakout I am looking for?? I will be watching closely.




Why $3.60?

Looks like the breakout is closer than that to me, $3.50?

RSI has formed a bullish divergence, only thing I am worried about is decreasing volume on the up-trend.

All will tell on how much effort is expended to breakout.  If the volume picks up and on a wide range, closing through resistance (this is where I would buy in, at close, setting initial stop a little below new support), we could see a nice little run.  Fundamentals look good also.  Keep your trigger finger loaded!  This is of course, assuming it actually eventuates.


----------



## oldblue

eddyeagle said:


> Another very solid report!
> I'm just wondering if anything thinks MCR would be a possible takeover target for the OXR/ZFX entity? They are looking at getting into Nickel...




I've always thought that MCR's offtake contract with BHP might lessen its attraction as a T/O target. I suppose it depends on a " predator's " attitude to nickel. They might be quite comfortable just to mine the stuff, pass it on to BHP and accept the contract price if they saw the future price as being sufficiently attractive.
Any thoughts on this?


----------



## MRC & Co

MRC & Co said:


> Why $3.60?
> 
> Looks like the breakout is closer than that to me, $3.50?
> 
> RSI has formed a bullish divergence, only thing I am worried about is decreasing volume on the up-trend.
> 
> All will tell on how much effort is expended to breakout.  If the volume picks up and on a wide range, closing through resistance (this is where I would buy in, at close, setting initial stop a little below new support), we could see a nice little run.  Fundamentals look good also.  Keep your trigger finger loaded!  This is of course, assuming it actually eventuates.




Looks like it could be ready to take a breather before it has a crack at resistance.  Im sure there will be a few profit taking at this point too, the same ones who have ridden this recent trend upwards.


----------



## MRC & Co

MRC & Co said:


> Looks like it could be ready to take a breather before it has a crack at resistance.  Im sure there will be a few profit taking at this point too, the same ones who have ridden this recent trend upwards.




Not sure if I am just talking to myself here.

But these long legged Doji (almost a shooting star) after a solid trend have been fantastic reversal trades lately.  An ominous sign for MCR.  Tried to push through resistance, but not much effort and the outcome was very weak.

I would expect to see a fall and potentially sharply next week.  Only thing that could save it is a big couple nights in Wall St and some solid Nickel price appreciation.  

I do not hold.


----------



## nioka

MRC & Co said:


> Not sure if I am just talking to myself here.
> 
> But these long legged Doji (almost a shooting star) after a solid trend have been fantastic reversal trades lately.  An ominous sign for MCR.  Tried to push through resistance, but not much effort and the outcome was very weak.
> 
> I would expect to see a fall and potentially sharply next week.  Only thing that could save it is a big couple nights in Wall St and some solid Nickel price appreciation.
> 
> I do not hold.



 I hold a few of these and I'm happy with the way they are going. Forget the charts, look at the fundamentals. This is an investors stock and not a traders one. They keep increasing their reserves and their production. They have good a cash position and a good history for paying franked dividends. The only problem is that they are a possible takeover target. I wish I had more like them.


----------



## MRC & Co

Over the last year or so the MCR SP has fluctuated and ended up not doing much whatsoever, so not much gain there for investors. 

Trading MCR has been one of my best stocks for the year, up there with EQN.  

I agree, it is an investors stock, but it is most definately a traders one also.


----------



## treefrog

nioka said:


> I hold a few of these and I'm happy with the way they are going. Forget the charts, look at the fundamentals. This is an investors stock and not a traders one. They keep increasing their reserves and their production. They have good a cash position and a good history for paying franked dividends. The only problem is that they are a possible takeover target. I wish I had more like them.




Gun Investor (mar07): "just bought MCR for $3 - great investment!"
Interested party (jun07): "how goes MCR?"
GI: "great now $4.50"
IP: "you sell and collect?"
GI: "nar mate, its an investment"
IP (aug07): "hows the MCR investment?"
GI: "$3, but not worried, great investment"
IP: (nov07): "hows the great investment in MCR?"
GI: "really great, now $4.50"
IP: "you sell and collect?"
GI: "nar mate, its an great investment, you really should get some"
IP: (feb 08): "hows the MCR investment?"
GI: "$3, but not worried, great investment"
IP: "there seems to be a pattern there"
GI: "never look at patterns mate, just the fundamentals. A great investment, you should get some."


----------



## nioka

treefrog said:


> Gun Investor (mar07): "just bought MCR for $3 - great investment!"
> Interested party (jun07): "how goes MCR?"
> GI: "great now $4.50"
> IP: "you sell and collect?"
> GI: "nar mate, its an investment"
> IP (aug07): "hows the MCR investment?"
> GI: "$3, but not worried, great investment"
> IP: (nov07): "hows the great investment in MCR?"
> GI: "really great, now $4.50"
> IP: "you sell and collect?"
> GI: "nar mate, its an great investment, you really should get some"
> IP: (feb 08): "hows the MCR investment?"
> GI: "$3, but not worried, great investment"
> IP: "there seems to be a pattern there"
> GI: "never look at patterns mate, just the fundamentals. A great investment, you should get some."



 If I could trade with hindsight I would never be an investor but only a trader. I class myself as an investor who sometimes trades. I usually trade when the fundamentals change and if you check the change in the fundamentals for MCR in the past I may have traded them over that period. I never suggest an investor should never sell. If a stock gets priced higher than the fundamentals suggest then sell and buy again after the correction. eg. In my opinion it would be a good time to sell Westfarmers and look to buy again as they fall while trying to absorb Coles, unless of course coal may offset Coles.


----------



## doogie_goes_off

Well what do you know, it's cracked 3.60 and it's on a bit of a run, I'm in for good. Good luck to all holders.


----------



## doogie_goes_off

To quote myself (see previous analysis) - "I am considering using $3.60 as a trigger over the next 6 trading days to confirm my predicted third cyclical growth band and buy in for a $5 three month target, wish me luck!"

I was a bit optimistic with the 6 days thing, but still looking for $5 target (see original graph).


----------



## Col Lector

URM this week spiked some 200% on news of high grade phosphate "grab-samples" from its Georgina tenements where it was initially targetting Pb-Zn. 
Much of the focus of the sharebuying orgy was URM's Qld prospects in the vicinity of Legend's publicised deposits.Product from here would be transported via Qld.
BUT 
Mention was also made of the high prospectivity of URM's NT tenements (eg,Boat Hill, Box Hole, Desert Syncline)on the SW margin of the Georgina Basin.
This area is close to Alice Springs and access to the Adelaide to Darwin Railway for despatch. 
MCR holds 9000km² immediately west of Boat Hill...& encircling Box Hole where they are also chasing Pb-Zn MVT deposits. 
MCR's land dwarfs Urm's NT holdings and significantly (!how?)coincides with middle Cambrian geology identified as phosphate-prospective.
From the NT Govt's Minerals & Energy Web page...


> Mineralisation
> The Georgina Basin is prospective for a number of mineral commodities. Known Pb-Zn prospects and occurrences are widespread and throughout the succession from Neoproterozoic siliciclastic rocks to Lower Ordovician carbonate and mixed carbonate-siliciclastic rocks. There is a wide range of mineralisation styles. At the Box Hole Mine, galena and barite occur along 6.5 km of strike in the Late Cambrian Arrinthrunga Formation. About 15 t of ore, averaging 65-70% Pb and 60 g/t Ag, has been handpicked. Mineralisation is stratabound epigenetic replacement and vug-fill in a stromatolitic dolostone, possibly localised by proximity to a feeder fault. Similar surface galena and minor pyrite occur at the Trackrider Prospect. Host rocks are vuggy, siliceous and manganiferous dolostone of the Arrinthrunga Formation, just below the contact with the overlying Tomahawk Formation. Mineralisation at both Box Hole and Trackrider is similar to Mississippi Valley-type (MVT) orebodies. Visible Zn-Pb mineralisation (up to 1.2% Zn) occurs in association with hydrocarbons in and just below a shale cap at the contact of the Arthur Creek Formation and Thorntonia Limestone in Baldwin 1 and may have affinities to Century-type, stratiform, shale-hosted base metal mineralisation. A fault breccia at the Boat Hill Prospect contains two intervals with percent levels of Zn. NTGS drilling also intersected percent levels of Zn and visible galena in Thorntonia Limestone in this area, which considerably extends the area of known mineralisation. Previously undocumented visible galena has also been recognised in the Neoproterozoic Elyuah Formation at the Mount Skinner Prospect in ALCOOTA. This core contains 2.44 m assayed at 0.3 m intervals, all of which is >2000 ppm Pb.
> 
> Economic phosphate deposits in Middle Cambrian Georgina Basin rocks are being mined at Duchess in Queensland. In the Northern Territory several deposits of collophane mudstone and pelletal phosphorite have been identified in sedimentary intervals on the Alexandria-Wonarah Basement High (see Regional phosphate prospectivity assessment project). These deposits average about 16% P2O5 and could aggregate to similar tonnages to those being exploited at Duchess. Rio Tinto has recently delineated 72 Mt of phosphate ore at the Wonarah deposit on the Alexandria-Wonarah Basement High. Smaller deposits are known at Alexandria, Alroy and Buchanan Creek.


----------



## doogie_goes_off

Will hopefully find support at ~$3 but with the nickel price sliding I'd be more inclined to think they may re-think their lower grade prospects and mothball them short term. Grades like >1.5% nickel still present strong targets though. Keep using stainless steel!


----------



## Max_ob

*mcr in pre-nr*

announcement is out. . . more nickel discovered or potential?

sp has been getting trashed. . . .hope this helps settle this stock. . . .otherwise going from one bad pick to another


----------



## hoppielimp

Unfortunately its only potential at this stage, but it does show the potential for further extensions.  With any luck though the downward pressure on nickel prices will close or put off many pig nickel producers aswell as put all these new laterite mines under a big questionmark.

There was mention in the news that usd 25000 pmt was the range in which pig nickel does not become economical and who knows about laterite mines...all i know is that it is much more expensive thatn sulphide mines.


----------



## So_Cynical

Well after reading through all this, theres no way im buying at over $2.70.

Looks like ill just wait it out.:mexico:

MCR is paying about the same div of that other nickel producer IGO for 
about half the "per share" cost...or am i missing something?


----------



## oldblue

So_Cynical said:


> Well after reading through all this, theres no way im buying at over $2.70.
> 
> Looks like ill just wait it out.:mexico:
> 
> MCR is paying about the same div of that other nickel producer IGO for
> about half the "per share" cost...or am i missing something?




That seems about right.
"The Age" has IGO on a yield of 1.5% from a div of 12cps, SP $6-58: MCR a yield of 3.8% from 12cps div and SP $3-14.
I hold MCR but don't follow IGO so can't comment on their respective merits.


----------



## nioka

So_Cynical said:


> Well after reading through all this, theres no way im buying at over $2.70.
> 
> Looks like ill just wait it out.:mexico:
> 
> MCR is paying about the same div of that other nickel producer IGO for
> about half the "per share" cost...or am i missing something?




 Both IGO and MCR have similar market caps. IGO has about $200m cash and MCR have about $110m cash. Their value on that basis is similar. 

 BUT. IGO are producing only 9000t of nickel per year with a 9 year life whereas MCR are producing 17,000t of nickel, building up to 20,000t per year for 20 years.

Therefore MCR have the likelyhood of increasing dividends and maintaining them for many years. It is my opinion that MCR are the best buy in nickel that there is at the moment. DYOR & MYOD.


----------



## 56gsa

interesting noika - will look into this more

weekly chart suggests support at $2.70 with current trend caught between a downtrend and upward channel - be watching this to see how it resolves...


----------



## eddyeagle

Took this from the 'Money Morning' email - it's about time Nickel lifted!



***Exploding Gas at Varanus Pushes Nickel Price up 7% 

Where’s the money headed today? 

Nickel. Strap in. 

The explosion at Apache Energy’s Varanus gas plant is jarring the global nickel supply. Australia digs a lot of nickel. Western Australia digs almost all of it. And last year Australia’s hand in global nickel production was 183,000 tonnes. That’s 13% of the world’s nickel. 

The thing about nickel smelting, though, is that in WA it runs almost entirely on natural gas. 

Minara Resources (ASX:MRE) was the first to fall. The nickel miner says it’ll lose 4,000 tonnes of production from its Murrin Murrin deposit this year. It depends entirely on Varanus for energy. 

No-one knows yet how much the explosion will affect Australia’s overall nickel game. But it’s really not helping companies like Minara. 

Commodity traders everywhere took note, sending nickel up 7% yesterday. In short, there could easily be a nickel shortage this year. 

But the metal sells for half the price it sold for a year ago. It’s a tick under US$10 per pound. Two weeks back, nickel didn’t have a friend in the world. Now it’s getting more attention than a woman at a Star Trek convention. Supply and demand is a wonderful thing. 

We have a feeling there are a few more companies keeping secrets out there. 

Expect more production guidance from West Australian companies. Particular of the nickel-digging variety.


----------



## eddyeagle

MCR has really tanked in the last few weeks. 

Anyone got any thoughts?

Worth topping up?

What about the price of Nickle? It has also been smashed recently. Anyone got any predictions?


----------



## madbull

The drop in nickel price has really smashed a lot of the Nickel mining companies.  I too would like to hear peoples thoughts about MCR...


----------



## derty

Mincor are probably the most solid of the nickel producers in the southern Yilgarn. They have good reserves, they are aggressive in finding near-mine Ni tonnes, they have some good brownfields exploration plays going and their cash cost of production is around A$14,000/Ni tonne which gives them a bit of headroom at the current prices.

But at the end of the day they are a slave to the nickel price. 

I will also add something that was brought up in a conversation I was involved in. I have not been able to verify this from online sources, so please take with a grain of salt:

The economics of producing Nickel Pig Iron (NPI) to date has placed a floor under the nickel price of around US$22,000Ni tonne as the producers we only paid for the value of the contained nickel. (i.e. at less than $22k the NPI producers fall over and the Ni supply reduces and prices rise) I was told that now the NPI are being paid for the contained iron and cobalt in their product that will allow them to continue producing at a much lower cost. The figure bandied about was US$8500. If so the Ni price can potentially fall further than it has, though there would already be marginal miners at current prices so the reduction in supply would come from mines closing and a floor in prices would be at a higher level than $8500.

From looking into this, most of the articles are saying that the NPI producers would forced to close which is contrary to what I have heard. If anyone has supporting or contradicting information it would be good to know if there is any validity to the NPI producers being paid for Fe and Co credits.


----------



## Whiskers

derty said:


> From looking into this, most of the articles are saying that the NPI producers would forced to close which is contrary to what I have heard. If anyone has supporting or contradicting information it would be good to know if there is any validity to the NPI producers being paid for Fe and Co credits.




Wayne Ryder from EYE seems to be saying that he's counting on added value from contained cobalt in his latest report... although I don't know how they intend to process it yet. Last time I spoke to him (a few months ago) he wasn't too phased by the fall in Ni prices. He's now looking at getting into prodoction pretty quickly with a JV with POS. 



> We are comfortable in employing a cut off grade of 0.5% Nickel after considering the presence in the
> ore of very valuable Cobalt, currently selling at approx 4.5 times the price of Nickel, and which is
> readily recoverable in the processing of ore for Nickel.


----------



## tech/a

While i like rescourses for the long term future I really think that until the US gets sorted out and *real growth and demand returns* Rescources will continue to disappoint.


----------



## doogie_goes_off

Near to mine intercepts announced today should keep production figures on the increase for the coming financial year. I guess that there is still potential for triple figure profit if nickel creeps back above $20k/t but I guess it's a waiting game and one that many will not have the patience for.


----------



## doogie_goes_off

Fundamental base case for MCR at current nickel price.

Cost to produce 1 lb nickel $6.50, sale of 1lb nickel $7.87 (spot price Kitco base metals). This is a margin of $1.37/lb or 17.4% margin on sales.

Lets take a base case of 15,000 t Nickel (likely to be more next year)

15,000 x $17,445/t x 17.4% = 45.5 million earnings

EPS = 45.5/197 = 23c/share minimum at current spot price

Looks undervalued, there must be some real negative sentiment around nickel keeping this one down.


----------



## jonojpsg

doogie_goes_off said:


> Fundamental base case for MCR at current nickel price.
> 
> Cost to produce 1 lb nickel $6.50, sale of 1lb nickel $7.87 (spot price Kitco base metals). This is a margin of $1.37/lb or 17.4% margin on sales.
> 
> Lets take a base case of 15,000 t Nickel (likely to be more next year)
> 
> 15,000 x $17,445/t x 17.4% = 45.5 million earnings
> 
> EPS = 45.5/197 = 23c/share minimum at current spot price
> 
> Looks undervalued, there must be some real negative sentiment around nickel keeping this one down.




Hey Doogie, 
I would say the negative sentiment keeping MCR down is that if Ni goes below $14000/t then MCR will have to look at closing their lower grade operations!!

Don't know if that's likely?


----------



## boid

in addition to doogie info...it is worth remembering....
'Mincor maintains a healthy hedge book, and has approximately 15% of its production to March
2010 hedged at an average price of A$34,420 per tonne.'
this is taken from a feb 2008 mincor media release.


----------



## treefrog

tech/a said:


> While i like rescourses for the long term future I really think that until the US gets sorted out and *real growth and demand returns* Rescources will continue to disappoint.




it's all that pesky chartist fella's fault - (tech-a or something) said it would go down more and it has.

frogs were buying at 65 and selling at 75 a few years back - looking good for a bit of deja vu


----------



## eddyeagle

Nickel has bounced approx 20% in the last few weeks and MCR has bounced from a low of $1.51 to close at $2.00 today which is encouraging... IMO the small cap resources have been way oversold and look great value at current levels...


----------



## eddyeagle

Anyone got any thoughts on Mincor?

Share price has been smashed down below $1.50. 
This stock was trading above $5 late last year!
They recently announced a profit of 64 Mil and the dividend for 07/08 was 12 cents, which if maintained gives a yield of 8.3% on current prices!

Nickel price has fallen to around 18500 but apart from that - this company has everything going for it IMO!

Interested to hear people's thoughts!


----------



## Out Too Soon

eddyeagle said:


> Anyone got any thoughts on Mincor?
> 
> Share price has been smashed down below $1.50.
> This stock was trading above $5 late last year!
> They recently announced a profit of 64 Mil and the dividend for 07/08 was 12 cents, which if maintained gives a yield of 8.3% on current prices!
> 
> Nickel price has fallen to around 18500 but apart from that - this company has everything going for it IMO!
> 
> Interested to hear people's thoughts!




Same disease as OZL & others at the moment, doesn't matter how good it is, it's got the grizzly bears.


----------



## eddyeagle

Out Too Soon said:


> Same disease as OZL & others at the moment, doesn't matter how good it is, it's got the grizzly bears.




Agree with that!

So what are medium - long term investors doing? Are people topping up at these levels? Averaging in?


----------



## nioka

eddyeagle said:


> Agree with that!
> 
> So what are medium - long term investors doing? Are people topping up at these levels? Averaging in?




Buying a few more and averaging down. Waiting for a dividend. Keeping an eye on the fundamentals. You only lose money when you sell, the SP value changes daily in dollars and cents but the true value of the company changes very little. I'm happy to hold but in saying that I am trading back and forth between OZL and MCR as their relative SP value changes.


----------



## oldblue

I reckon MCR is a particularly well run company, mining high grade deposits. The problem is that it is a nickel outfit and the PoN has been in a downtrend for the last 12 months. While this has shown a few tentative signs of turning up in the last month or so, nickel stocks are fairly high and have increased recently.
So I'll wait to see more evidence, both SP-wise and in the PoN before buying more.

Disc: Small holding.


----------



## eddyeagle

Think I will continue to top up. In a couple of years I will either be laughing all the way to the bank or bankrupt! 

From todays AIR midday review:

Mincor (MCR) said it has increased resources by 14% to a record of 167,300 tons as of FY end. Production target is 19,500-20,000 tons for FY09 and MCR said it’s focused on margin improvement and reduction in cash costs amidst falling nickel prices. MCR down 1%.


----------



## oldblue

I'm sorely tempted to buy a few more - at $1-18 !
Profitable company, even at today's Ni prices, historical  P/E less than 4 !
Need to keep repeating to myself to wait for the trend to change. When it does I'll be buying.


----------



## deadset

Thanks for the heads up, I had some small money on it when it went down so its been perplexing how both MCR and OZL have lost a lot lately.  I'll keep my eye on it for now, might be a jump soon, I'll have to see how the dust settles after this week.


----------



## doogie_goes_off

Everyone's waiting for the trend to change, but it's falling knives for me at $1.29 and $1.19. Crossed fingers we are near bottom.


----------



## doogie_goes_off

Nickel price rallies >5% overnight and MCR shares fall ??? WTF ???  This is one investor who is sick of the market driving in the US wheel ruts.


----------



## fodder-oz

looks good today at least closed at 1.295. Hopefully this reflects movement in price of nickel.

Btw: When is/was the dividend paid out last for this one?


----------



## Lert

The current dividend is payable next Friday 26th, 6cps which gives on todays share price a p.a. yield of a little over 9%.  I think 6cps was paid as an interim divi about 6 months ago and we get another 6cps in 6 months time, assuming I understand everything correctly..


----------



## fodder-oz

Ok thanks for the divend information. To qualify for the upcoming 6 cents dividend do you know when you had to have purchased the shares by?


----------



## Lert

Yeah fodder, the record date was the 1st September and the ex div date was 26th August. You needed to have owned them on or before the first of this month.

Cheers


----------



## Sunburnt Land

Mincor: massive sulphide intersection at Carnilya Hill
11:31, Monday, 6 October 2008

        Sydney - Monday - October 6: (RWE Australian Business News) - 
Mincor Resources NL (ASX:MCR) has confirmed the potential for 
significant additions to current reserves at its recently commissioned 
Carnilya Hill Nickel Mine after announcing a high-grade intersection of 
4.63m at 12.75pc nickel (true width 2.66m) - the highest grade drill 
intersection yet achieved at the mine.
        Mincor said today that the intersection lay just outside the 
current mineral resource boundary, pointing to additional potential in 
the keel zone of the ore system at Carnilya Hill.
        The drillhole, CUD0038, was the first in a new round of 
underground infill diamond drilling required for mine planning purposes 
as the new operation - which is part of Mincor's Northern Division of 
Kambalda mines - continues its production ramp-up.
        The ramp-up "commenced in earnest" during the September quarter, 
with thick, high-grade nickel mineralisation now being driven along the 
14 Level of the main 'B' ore zone. Production for the September quarter 
is provisionally estimated at 9860 tonnes at 3.6pc nickel.

        *****

        Drillhole CUD0038 intersected the basal contact just outside the 
lower boundary of the mineral resource. The resulting intersection 
consists entirely of high-grade massive sulphides.
        Managing director Mr David Moore said the result demonstrated 
the previously untested potential of the lower boundary of the ore 
system, which in places coincided with the keel of the Carnilya Hill 
Syncline.
        This structural setting is capable of producing high-grade and 
structurally thickened nickel mineralisation, with the latest result 
opening up a new area for detailed drill testing.
        Nearby holes, drilled as part of the same operational program, 
but not yet assayed, have also intersected massive sulphides, though 
none as thick as CUD0038.
        "This is an outstanding result," Mr Moore said.
        "We always felt that there could be significant structural 
enrichment in the keel zone but it was difficult to drill from surface.
        "This is the first real indication of the tremendous grade and 
metal upside that we believe exists at Carnilya Hill."
        ENDS

Some welcome news from this nickel miner. Share price closed at $1.03 today, down 8 cents. Annual dividend is 12 cents, yielding 11.65% at today's closing price. Interesting to note that this company has no debt, as opposed to fellow nickel miner Minara (MRE). I'm confident the current dividend payout ratio can be maintained into the future. In my opinion, clearly a better investment than Minara (MRE). Comments anyone?


----------



## fodder-oz

its definently a terrible market atm. With a good annoucement today what does the stock do. Go down 8%..

I think this stock is of such great value atm.. In my opinion this should only go up in the future. Question is will the bears take hold in the short term.


----------



## oldblue

I hold MCR and agree it's a better investment than MRE. The problem is that no-one wants to know about Ni at present so announcements like today's don't cut much ice.
I'm not sure holding the current dividend ratio ( as opposed to "rate" ) will count for much if Ni prices don't improve. Otherwise, profit levels look threatened, the payout raio may be maintained but the dividend rate will drop.

PS Welcome to the forum!


----------



## madbull

I am a noob investor, unluckily starting my trading during this harsh market.. 

MCR is one of my speculative stocks which I believe has great potential and its hurting to see that good news is coming out from MCR yet the price keeps going down.  

I will continue to hold and support this "what i believe" to be a great company


----------



## Sunburnt Land

Forecast profit for 09 is similar to last year's A$63m. Some reports even suggest this could be a touch higher, but with the freefall of the Ni price of late, I doubt this would be the case. 

The strong balance sheet should be able to support a 12 cent dividend per share this year (even if there were to be a downturn in profit).

(P.S. Cheers for the welcome!)


----------



## doogie_goes_off

Yes, painful but true, the price has declined and there is no fundamental downside, but Ni is the only area of production so if Ni goes down, so does the share price...if the market is being logical.


----------



## oldblue

madbull said:


> I am a noob investor, unluckily starting my trading during this harsh market..
> 
> MCR is one of my speculative stocks which I believe has great potential and its hurting to see that good news is coming out from MCR yet the price keeps going down.
> 
> I will continue to hold and support this "what i believe" to be a great company




Nothing to do with merits or otherwise of MCR but as an " oldbull ", one of the hardest lessons to learn and remember over the last 40 odd years has been to never " fall in love " with a stock.


----------



## eddyeagle

Have been invested in MCR since 2003 when i first bought around the 40 cent mark. Since then see it fly to 5 bucks and now back to 1 dollar! Never thought i'd see it back at these levels. 

It certainly is tough times at the moment. No one wants anything to do with Nickel or any resource stocks at the moment.


----------



## fodder-oz

Another good annoucement today.. When will people wake up and see this stock is so undervalued atm?


MINCOR DISCOVERS MAJOR EXTENSION TO
MIITEL NICKEL ORE SYSTEM
Burnett Shoot Intersected in Step-out Hole 600 metres Beyond Previous Drilling
Australian nickel producer Mincor Resources NL (ASX: MCR) has achieved a milestone in its aggressive Kambalda
nickel exploration strategy, today announcing the discovery of a major extension to the ore system of the highly
productive Miitel Nickel Mine – its original Kambalda nickel operation.
Mincor said today (Wednesday) that a step-out hole located nearly 600 metres beyond previous drilling had
intersected strong, wide nickel mineralisation in a channel structure interpreted to be the strike continuation of the
Burnett Shoot at North Miitel. Drill hole MDD170W1, one of a series of surface holes drilled to test for an extension
to the Burnett Shoot, intersected the following:
MDD170W1: 8.72 metres @ 2.74% nickel (true width 5.58 metres) from 751 metres down-hole, including:
5.30 metres @ 3.42% nickel (true width 3.39 metres)
Significantly, the intersection comprises a well-developed “Kambalda Profile” with a narrow zone of high-tenor
massive sulphides grading 13.15% nickel lying directly on the basal contact, overlain by matrix and then
disseminated sulphides. The presence of massive sulphides, albeit only 30cm in down-hole width, is an important
indicator of the strength of the ore system.
“This is a tremendously significant result,” said Mincor’s Managing Director, David Moore. “While we must not get
ahead of ourselves, it potentially extends the entire Miitel ore system by as much as 25%. Miitel is already the fifth
biggest ore system discovered in Kambalda to date, and if infill drilling back towards the mine confirms this
discovery, then the implications for resource and reserve extensions are profound.”
Mr Moore said that the characteristics of Miitel, including its flat plunge, vertical dip, and classic ore profile, were all
favourable for high-production, low-cost mining. “Importantly, all of these characteristics appear to be present in
the latest drilling, which further reinforces the significance of this discovery for the Company,” he said.
“Our exploration strategy is underpinned by the potential of Kambalda’s ore systems to extend well beyond their
current limits,” Mr Moore continued. “This success at Miitel reinforces the enormous upside at all of the 12 ore
systems we own in the Kambalda Nickel District.”
Drill hole MDD170W1 was one of a series of surface holes designed to discover the northward extension of the
Burnett Shoot at North Miitel. Three holes and a wedge were required to achieve the discovery, although strong
indications were present in the third hole – the parent to MDD170W1 – which intersected 0.7 metres @ 2.82%
nickel (true width 0.35 metres), some 60 metres down-dip of the intersection in MDD170W1.
A down-hole electromagnetic survey has been completed indicating strong anomalism to both the north and south.
A further wedge hole off MDD170 is currently underway, targeting an intersection point approximately 40 metres
up-dip of the intersection in MDD170W1.
The Burnett Shoot was first discovered by underground drilling at the very end of the North Miitel ore body, when it
became apparent that the basal contact that hosts the Miitel ore system had been faulted into the hanging wall.
Underground drilling beyond the fault zone subsequently achieved three ore grade intersections extending to
approximately 200 metres beyond current underground development.
However due to drilling difficulties caused by the fault zone, Mincor decided to discontinue underground drilling
from that location and instead extend a drill drive through the fault zone to a new location, from where the Burnett
Shoot can be effectively drilled out from underground. That drill drive is currently in progress.
MEDIA RELEASE
Wednesday, 8 October 2008
Page 2
In parallel with this Mincor commenced drilling on a major step-out section from surface some 800 metres beyond
the fault zone, with the aim of discovering a significant strike extension to the Burnett Shoot. The intersection in
MDD170W1 reported above is the result of that work.


----------



## Sunburnt Land

Had this sort of news been released during "the good old times", you would have seen an instant 25+% increase in share price. How times change! 

Against the flow MCR did finish in the green today (only just). Have a look at MRE and you'll see how MCR would have finished at the close without this news.


----------



## eddyeagle

Money morning had an article on Nickel saying it could drop to 11,000 which is a previous high from 1995!!! All the technical inicators are negative!


----------



## fodder-oz

Well MCR is up again 10% for a rise for the 3rd day straight. Nearly back to buy price for me.

Good to see this is holding well, lets hope it gets back up to where it belongs.


----------



## Sunburnt Land

I believe the Ni price went up from $US10,000/t to $US11,500/t last night, a 15% increase, yet a decrease in MCR's share price today??? The market has a lot of repricing to do when we see confidence return. 

Short term pain for long term gain.


----------



## fodder-oz

Good day so far for MCR up 17%.  Quarterly report looked quite good as well.


Strong Quarterly production of 4,955 tonnes nickelin-
ore, or 4,358 tonnes nickel-in-concentrate
• Cash costs down 11% over previous quarter to
A$5.79 per pound payable nickel (US$3.59 at an
exchange rate of 0.62)
• Operational Review completed – details below
• Outstanding exploration success at Burnett Shoot –
potential for massive resource extensions to Miitel
• Potential new ore system discovered at Bluebush –
1.27 metres @ 7.75% nickel (true width) intersected
at Cameron Prospect
• High-grade massive sulphides intersected outside
Reserves at Carnilya Hill
• Group Mineral Resources lifted by 14% to all-time
record, Ore Reserves all-but replaced
• Robust $64 million Profit delivered for FY2007/08,
dividends maintained at 12 cents per share
• Quarter-end cash and receivables total $111.48
million; net working capital after creditors and
accruals totals $76.02 million

MINCOR LIFTS YEAR-END MINERAL RESOURCES BY 14% TO NEW RECORD OF
167,300 TONNES OF NICKEL – ALL-BUT REPLACES ORE RESERVES –
CONTINUES OUTSTANDING RECORD OF RESOURCE AND RESERVE GROWTH


----------



## Sunburnt Land

A very good day indeed so far. Currently trading at $0.81, up 17%.  I thought the quarterly report was superb. We should see MCR continue its upward march to around the $1.00 mark over the next few weeks. Could even be a takover target at these prices.


----------



## Sunburnt Land

Definitely something brewing on the horizon for this one. Up 24.5c today to 94c, a 35% increase for the day! Due for a speeding ticket from the ASX any moment now IMO.


----------



## fodder-oz

Finally some sensible price starting to come back for this great little company. With no debt and a good discovery the market is starting to catch up with this one. 

When Nickel prices start going up this will be one to double in price I reckon.


----------



## oldblue

Sunburnt Land said:


> Definitely something brewing on the horizon for this one. Up 24.5c today to 94c, a 35% increase for the day! Due for a speeding ticket from the ASX any moment now IMO.




I doubt that there's anything happening in a corporate sense but rather that MCR got badly oversold on Ni price weakness. PAN also up strongly today but I see a risk of over enthusiasm if the PoN doesn't hold up.

Disc: Holding both MCR and PAN at prices a bit north of current.


----------



## doogie_goes_off

When the nickel price jumped 15% the other day, I thought here we go - a recovery worth getting on. I looked at the strategic review figures MCR put out. I could make approximately $60M EBITA out of their figures, I was watching and then the nickel price plummeted again, losing almost the same amount it gained. This no longer made MCR cheap and I bailed on the idea. looks like the Ni price is down marginally again this evening, I'd say we could see some tome in the 65-85c range, I don't see a trend reversal without an increasing nickel price. The upshot is that I won't be back on the bandwagon for a while yet, new discoveries and increased resources included.


----------



## doogie_goes_off

Just a little information to add to my analysis on recent appreciation in MCR SP:

*Nickel, Copper Fall on Inventories; Tin Rises After Mining Cuts *

By Claudia Carpenter

Nov. 3 (Bloomberg) -- Nickel and copper declined on the London Metal Exchange as stockpiles expanded and demand growth from China, the world's biggest user, slowed. Tin rose. 

Global copper demand will fall 0.2 percent next year, down from an earlier forecast of a 1 percent advance, because of slower economic growth in China, Credit Suisse Group analyst Jeremy Gray wrote in a report today. Copper stockpiles in warehouses monitored by the LME are at their highest since March 2004 and nickel inventories the most since May 1999. 

``Until we either see some further large cuts in production or more importantly some signs of improvement on the demand side, it's too early to get bullish'' about nickel, said Adam Rowley, an analyst at Macquarie Group Ltd. in London. 

Nickel for delivery in three months fell $150, or 1.2 percent, to $11,950 a metric ton as of 4:55 p.m. in London. The metal used to make stainless steel declined 24 percent last month.


----------



## kirtdog

I think this is a great company to buy into, the question is when is the best time to buy in??? Are nickel demands going to be stronger or weaker, i'm sure the apparent 0.2% decline will change.. hmm so unpredictable.. And why did it go from $5 to $1?? Seems like it was purely from panic to me...?


----------



## oldblue

kirtdog said:


> I think this is a great company to buy into, the question is when is the best time to buy in??? Are nickel demands going to be stronger or weaker, i'm sure the apparent 0.2% decline will change.. hmm so unpredictable.. And why did it go from $5 to $1?? Seems like it was purely from panic to me...?




The drop in the SP is a result of the drop in the PoN, an assessment of MCR's profitability at given price levels and the general decline in equities, particularly miners.
MCR is essentially a one-metal company, apart from small quantities of Cu and Co mined as a by-product, so its SP can be expected to track the PoN very closely.
Arguably, the SP decline has been overdone although personally I would want to wait to see some evidence of an upturn. On the other hand, believers in buying straw hats in winter might already be stocking up for the " summer sales".


----------



## kirtdog

Shanghai. November 3. INTERFAX-CHINA - More than 95 percent of China's nickel pig iron producers have halted production as demand from downstream stainless steel mills has dried up, industry insiders told Interfax on Nov. 3.

 yuk where is the good news?


----------



## derty

kirtdog said:


> Shanghai. November 3. INTERFAX-CHINA - More than 95 percent of China's nickel pig iron producers have halted production as demand from downstream stainless steel mills has dried up, industry insiders told Interfax on Nov. 3.
> 
> yuk where is the good news?



I'd say that is good news: "More than 95 percent of China's nickel pig iron producers have halted production"


----------



## kirtdog

yeah.. i guess.. i'm just worried i guess hopefully things get better.. time will tell..................


----------



## kirtdog

IMO this stock is very undervalued, I think the 'recession' has undervalued MCR and believe it will bounce back to around $2... Almost debt free company and nickel will always be in high demand, just not from china, now is the time..


----------



## Sunburnt Land

MCR is in a super strong position relative to its peers (e.g. MRE, WSA, MRE, IGO, MRE) but unfortunately the share price only reflects what someone is prepared to pay for it.

Gee $2.00 a share would be nice. Wishful thinking though in the short-term I say. Maybe in 12-24 months we'll see it bounce back somewhat. With the tens of millions of cash they have in the bank, I hope they maintain a decent dividend.

I jumped in a while back at $1.05 and then again at $0.75. Gee I wish I had some spare cash to pick up another parcel. Today's close at $0.51 is an unbelievable price for shares in such a high quality company.


----------



## oldblue

I agree that it's a quality company but it's a one-metal operation and will struggle to make money while the price of Ni remains depressed.
I hold a few but won't be adding until the PoN and the SP take a turn for the better.


----------



## kirtdog

feels like its gonna keep dropping til it hits zero i bought in around 55c starting to think maybe i should cut my losses...


----------



## inenigma

I guess it all depends on who you listen to.....  One website states that Stainless production has dropped for 2008 ("http://www.metalworker.com.au/Article/Global-drop-in-stainless-steel-production/234402.aspx").  Another site forecasts demand for stainless to increase for 2008 ("http://www.pdfdownload.org/pdf2html/pdf2html.php?url=http%3A%2F%2Fwww.worldstainless.org%2FNR%2Frdonlyres%2F9B25D843-CD1D-45AB-AA3F-C7AFE8A38631%2F4259%2FDemandIndexAllStainlessProducts.pdf&images=yes").  Yet other sites are forecasting an increase in production for 2008 and a decrease in demand.......  

So, if production drops and demand increases......
But, if production increase and demand falls out ......


Who do you listen to ???


----------



## laurie

inenigma said:


> Who do you listen to ???




At the end of the day its your money and if you feel uncomfortable holding MCR sell..... but I understand where you are coming from damn if you do and damn if you don't

cheers laurie


----------



## doogie_goes_off

To quote myself: "I'd say we could see some time in the 65-85c range", 

Well its ~55c now and if I were a betting man I'd suggest a break below this support as the nickel price is tanking, glad I sold at $1 ish.


----------



## Sunburnt Land

Not the one metal company as many believe. Beautifully positioned to take advantage of the WA government's decision to lift the ban on uranium mining. I'm looking forward to a positive announcement on MCR's Gacoyne Tungsten-Uranium project. The huge 750+ square km tenement provides massive upside to reported findings. Visible uranium mineralisation occurring in both outcrop and drill holes. Companies like BMN have taken off recently, uranium is attracting huge interest of late.


----------



## fodder-oz

Well at least MCR still has it's cash reserves. Hopefully Nickel prices will go up next year some time. Not sure what the market will do with this news, but seeing the numbers of trades recently I hope not much affect.

Whats peoples opinions on this news?


http://www.theaustralian.news.com.au/business/story/0,28124,24779504-36418,00.html

NICKEL miner Mincor Resources will shut its main nickel mine, Miitel, from Christmas because of poor prices.

The Perth-based miner also said it won’t achieve a first half accounting profit after depreciation and amortisation during the current financial year ending June 30. 

In an investor briefing, Mincor reaffirmed production guidance for the current financial year at 16,000 to 19,000 tonnes of nickel, down from an earlier target of 19,500 tonnes to 20,500 tonnes


----------



## fodder-oz

any thoughts on this annoucement? I guess this will happen with alot of the smaller miners with metal prices at lows below cost.


----------



## eddyeagle

I had a look at the investor briefing yesterday and thought it was outstanding. It reaffirms to me that this is a quality growth company with excellent management. Their cost cutting program looks very sensible and I believe MCR will be in a great position to outperform when the demand for resources does pick up. 

I liked their insight into the nickel business, mentioning that it is a highly volatile business and that while the good times are very good, the bad times must be managed and that they are well placed to do this in the present environment. 

One slide of particular interest:


Value attributed by the market
to Mincor’s business, being 4
cents per share, or A$8 million.
This business has:
• an 8-year track record of
production and profits;
• 2007/8 EBITDA of $140 million;
• Current cashflows of $2-5
million per month (before
capital and exploration);
• 160,000 tonnes of nickel in
Resource;
• property, plant and equipment;
• active mining and exploration
operations

I think I will be topping up around the 50 cent mark in the near future and holding for the long term.


----------



## derty

fodder-oz said:


> NICKEL miner Mincor Resources will shut its main nickel mine, Miitel, from Christmas because of poor prices.




MCR say that they are temporarily suspending mining and preparing a new mining plan. I suspect that the new mining plan will be to shed the existing workforce and mining contracts and then employ a new workforce and negotiate or tender a new mining contract at significantly reduced prices. 

Labour prices and contracts are still at boom prices. There are a lot of people in the mining industry that are inexperienced or just plain crap and are getting paid top dollar due to the labour shortage and the ability to play desperate employers off against each other. The power has shifted back to the employer.


----------



## oldblue

derty said:


> MCR say that they are temporarily suspending mining and preparing a new mining plan. I suspect that the new mining plan will be to shed the existing workforce and mining contracts and then employ a new workforce and negotiate or tender a new mining contract at significantly reduced prices.
> 
> Labour prices and contracts are still at boom prices. There are a lot of people in the mining industry that are inexperienced or just plain crap and are getting paid top dollar due to the labour shortage and the ability to play desperate employers off against each other. The power has shifted back to the employer.




Hi derty.

Is  the Miitel mine currently worked by the company or by a contractor?
If the former, I would have thought that the cost of redundancies would rule out firing and re-hiring. If the latter, I wonder what the penalties are for breaking the contract?


----------



## derty

oldblue said:


> Is  the Miitel mine currently worked by the company or by a contractor?
> If the former, I would have thought that the cost of redundancies would rule out firing and re-hiring. If the latter, I wonder what the penalties are for breaking the contract?



Barminco had the mining contract at Miitel and as far as I have learned there is no compensation to be paid for ending the contract.

The standard for redundancies appears to be 2 weeks for every year of service and I don't imagine most of the mine staff (that are not contractors) would have significant tenure with Mincor. So at the end of the day redundancies would be a small amount when compared to the ongoing mining costs.


----------



## bas

The hedging they took out proved to be very good management decision now. This is giving them an "artificially" lower cost of production, need to find out how much hedging they have in place- ie when they will fill all the contracts.

Price may well go lower, but good opportunity to get set in a well managed company for the next cycle in nickel prices.


----------



## fodder-oz

Well just back from holidays and see that MCR has been doing great including today up over 20% so far.

 Any reason why stock is up so much from last year in the 50 and 60c range to over 90c now?  Finally back in the black now on this great company.


----------



## fodder-oz

Ahh further research I see Nickel price has gone up. Well thats good news for now lets hope it can last and go up more.


----------



## eddyeagle

Maybe I am a gullible sucker, but once again I am very impressed with the latest report from Mincor. 

With the exception of their 1st ever net loss ( $22.7 Mil, including pricing adjustments and one-off non-cash asset impairment charges of $26.6 Mil), there are plenty of positive statements in there ie. *exceptionally* strong balance sheet, *outstanding* leverage to a recovery in global growth etc 

-	$72 Mil in the bank, no debt. 
-	Dividend of 2c – yield of almost 3% at current prices. 
-	Production flexed downwards to a robust core of three low cost mines
-	Cash costs down
-	Operations capable of a rapid and low-cost return to production when conditions improve
-	They look forward to the future with ‘great confidence’ 

“Mincor continues to offer its shareholders outstanding leverage to the nickel price, and an investment in a financially strong mining company with a long term track record of success”


----------



## babka

Hi eddy... please don't think that you are a gullible sucker. I think that your post is a good one and a true one. We just have to be patient for nickel prices to improve. Company itself is a gem - IMHO. Cheers.


----------



## oldblue

Unless we get a world where the price of nickel never improves then MCR looks like a fair bet to me at these prices. It's shown that it can manage its way through difficult conditions and is positioning for the eventual recovery.
A stock for the patient type. I hold a few.


----------



## jonojpsg

Based on thier half yearly results and report, I would have to agree.  They have backed off on the high cost operations and managed costs extremely well IMO.  To be able to continue to pay a dividend and maintain cash reserves sufficient to keep them going - AND more importantly to be producing at a cash flow positive rate hence not actually drawing on their reserves over the next year at least after which one would have thought that PON should be on the improve.

I am definitely looking at buying.


----------



## eddyeagle

MCR back over $1 which is great news...

Cop that to the Deutsche Analysts who put a sell on it at 60c with a target of 50cents!


----------



## babka

Mincor's management is TOPS. They are doing very,very good job, they are excellent and very determined. Lots of "analysts" have been, are, and will be wrong over and over again. They do what suits their pockets.


----------



## Garpal Gumnut

I'd like to post a chart of MCR , I know very little about the company or its future prospects but I am excited about the chart.

Many years ago a stock runner called Richard D. Wyckoff had a system subsequently called The Wyckoff Method which attributed success in the future of stocks to certain criteria. He talked of rivers and creeks in his analysis but I must confess this little baby looks like a Wyckoff example of a stock being sold down, with weak and strong sellers and buyers and I'll be looking at it next week.

The volumes are particularly impressive recently.

gg


----------



## happytown

nice drill results out this morning have given the sp a decent nudge today, up over 30% at one stage



> ...
> 
> outstanding highgrade nickel sulphide intersection below its Mariners Nickel Mine near Kambalda, upgrading the potential for a major new ore position at depth.
> 
> A spectacular down-hole intersection of 35 metres at 7.0% nickel with an estimated true width of 6.4 metres
> 
> ...



cheers


----------



## eddyeagle

20% rise today on the back of a great update from MCR.

I always enjoy reading their announcements - MCR management are top shelf. 

Can hopefully keep going and break the $2 mark!


----------



## jonojpsg

eddyeagle said:


> 20% rise today on the back of a great update from MCR.
> 
> I always enjoy reading their announcements - MCR management are top shelf.
> 
> Can hopefully keep going and break the $2 mark!




OUtstanding quarterly!!  Look at those numbers :

*Production 17630tonnes of Ni in ore for the year
Cash costs US$3.34/lb for the June qtr (as compared to average PON of about US$6.34)
Net free cash $18m for the qtr
Exploration 35m @7%Ni*

If this doesn't continue moving up now I don't know why??


----------



## oldblue

I agree - a great quarter!

The only reason why the SP might not continue up from here is that it has climbed  from about 50c in March - an increase of 280%!

Disc: Holding MCR


----------



## eddyeagle

Yeah it's had a great run up from 50c, but I think it was harshly oversold in 2008, down from 5 bucks to 50c! Harsh treatment for such a well-run, profitable company. Management's reaction to the drop in commodity prices was excellent and we are enjoying the rewards of holding on now! Wish I had bought some more stock at 50c!


----------



## eddyeagle

Another good day for nickel on the LME so would expect MCR to get a get another boost Friday. What a run it's had since 46cents in December! At xmas time, I had no idea it would recover so fast - wasnt expecting anything from 2009.


----------



## eddyeagle

Looks like MCR is having a bit of a correction given its strong run in the last 6months. Needed a breather and i thought it might struggle around the $3 mark, so took some profits at $2.90. 

Will be looking to top up when it resumes its upward trend.


----------



## eddyeagle

Another good quarterly report from Mincor today - Almost 100 mil working capital now and no debt. 



HIGHLIGHTS
• Mincor produced its 100,000th tonne of nickel-in-concentrate during the month of September –
an outstanding achievement delivered from a starting Ore Reserve of only 25,400 nickel tonnes
in 2001
• Mincor celebrates its 10th birthday during the month of October – having delivered total
shareholder returns of more than 6,000% over the decade since October 1999
• Steady quarterly production despite temporary operational constraints at Mariners – strong
quarterly operating surplus of $19.5 million
• Continued strong cash generation – quarter-end cash balance of $91.3 million (up from $75.8
million at 30 June), after the payment of an $8 million dividend to shareholders
• FY 2009 financial results demonstrate $28 million profit turn-around in second half – rebound
from global financial crisis leaves Mincor in strong position for its next stage of growth
• Major exploration programs underway throughout the Kambalda District, with exciting early
results from South Miitel, Bluebush and Carnilya Hill
• Maiden resource for the Mariners N10 ore body, only 4 months after the discovery hole –
Mincor’s updated resources and reserves released
• Working capital (cash and receivables minus creditors and accruals) increased to $97.6 million
(up from $93.9 million at end June 2009) after payment of a 4 cent per share fully franked final
dividend for FY 2009


----------



## oldblue

Yes, another solid quarter.

The only blemish was a fairly significant rise (23%) in cash costs but this was from a very low point in the previous quarter. Costs still well contained in historical terms.


----------



## jman2007

MCR has had a fantastic year so far, would have been a steal at its historic low point during the GFC. Probably have missed the boat well and truly now, but nickel is one commodity that is poorly represented in my porfolio, and MCR and IGO (among others) probably would have offered the best exposure to it 6 months ago. Hindsight is a wonderfull thing, yeah right. :iamwithst


----------



## fodder-oz

tell me about it, i bought some back in november last year around 60c, sold in early jan after nickel rallied a bit for for 88c. Made a bit of profut which was nice. Price went back down to 60c again but never bothered tracking the uptrend again.. 

Wish I did I would have had a 4 bagger with div as well :-(
Oh well a bit late now to get in but if market crashes again will look into getting more.


----------



## eddyeagle

Mincor seems to have taken a bit of a battering over the last few months. After hitting $2.92 it is hovering around the $1.80 mark now. I would expect there to be some support in this area, but it is in a fairly steady downtrend and I see Barclays sold out today. Where to from here?


----------



## oldblue

eddyeagle said:


> Mincor seems to have taken a bit of a battering over the last few months. After hitting $2.92 it is hovering around the $1.80 mark now. I would expect there to be some support in this area, but it is in a fairly steady downtrend and I see Barclays sold out today. Where to from here?




I'm not sure that Barclays "sold out". There was a "ceasing to be a substantial shareholder" notice yesterday but it related to Barclays selling the management company that held the shares. Similar notices were posted for other companies, OZL among them if I remember correctly.

MCR is suffering from high LME nickel stocks which is affecting all Ni miners. The SP reacts, as ever, to movements in the PoN and stock levels but MCR is a well run company, as demonstrated over the last year or so.

I'm holding.


----------



## oldblue

This article today discusses the nickel supply/stock situation.

http://www.fnarena.com/index2.cfm?type=dsp_newsitem&n=66949247-CFF4-34DF-2A28163F79DCC3B0

It's not all bad news!


----------



## ectoplasm

oldblue said:


> This article today discusses the nickel supply/stock situation.
> 
> http://www.fnarena.com/index2.cfm?type=dsp_newsitem&n=66949247-CFF4-34DF-2A28163F79DCC3B0
> 
> It's not all bad news!




Hi oldblue;

MCR seems to have hit a base early december & decided to rally with other resource stocks ~ seems to be heading towards resistance @ $2.50


Weekly chart:


----------



## eddyeagle

Still heading down. Hit a low of $1.30 today but closed on $1.40. Do you think we could find some support around this area?

MCR announced last week:

_
Accordingly, Mincor advises that its Net Profit After Tax for the half year to December 31, 2009 will increase to
approximately $14 million, based on a Profit Before Tax of approximately $19.9 million, and gross revenues of
approximately $94 million._


----------



## oldblue

I still think that's MCR a good, well run, comparatively low cost operator. And the recent profit up-date does nothing to change that.

But the outlook for the PoN doesn't inspire confidence. LME stocks are still increasing, now at over 160,000 mt, highest level for at least 15 years.

Difficult to call a low in the SP in these circumstances, IMO.


----------



## eddyeagle

Article on Mincor and Nickel here - worth a read: 

http://www.sharecafe.com.au/fnarena_news.asp?a=AV&ai=16510


----------



## oldblue

eddyeagle said:


> Article on Mincor and Nickel here - worth a read:
> 
> http://www.sharecafe.com.au/fnarena_news.asp?a=AV&ai=16510




Yes, that sums up MCR pretty well.

I've held MCR for several years now and the only point I'd disagree with strongly is in viewing them, or any other pure Ni stock, as a long term hold. As stated, Ni is probably the most volatile of the metals pricewise and shareprices react accordingly. I treat them as trading stocks these days and wish I'd come to that conclusion long ago, rather than ride the rollercoaster of the highs and lows, only to end up - like all good rollercoasters - where I started!


----------



## 56gsa

I like the micro in the macro when you look at 5 yr and 1 yr nickel prices..  like a mandelbrot set?

Not sure if theres anything you can read into this - but the uptrend in nickel may see the roller coaster of mcr head back to 2.05 ...  Up 4% to 1.77 today (not on chart)


----------



## springhill

*HIGH-GRADE NICKEL INTERSECTIONS AT MARINERS AND MIITEL*
Underground Extensional Drilling Resumes with Strong Results
• Renewed near-mine extensional drilling generates strong results at Mariners and Miitel Mines.
• At Mariners a second intersection has been returned below the high-grade Terrace zone (the driver of the
significant grade uplift in FY 2012):
o 17.98m @ 3.77% nickel (true width estimated at 6.9m)
• At Miitel a 50-metre step-out from previous high-grade intersection below the N29C:
o 22.2m @ 7.14% nickel (true width estimated at 3.5m)
• Four underground drilling rigs now operational across Mincor’s Kambalda mines.

*JUNE QUARTERLY HIGHLIGHTS*
• Solid final Quarter sees Mincor achieve its production target and substantially outperform its cost target for the 2011/12 Financial Year.
• FY 2011/12 production of 10,275 tonnes nickel-in-ore at cash costs before royalties of $5.48/lb.
• Successful cost reduction strategies allow generation of full-year operational surplus of $42.3 million, up 14% over the previous year despite sharply lower nickel prices.
• Quarterly production of 2,142 tonnes of nickel-in-ore at cash costs before royalties of A$5.45/lb.
• Exciting reconnaissance drill results near the Cassini Nickel Sulphide Prospect – 1 metre at 7.14% Nickel – camp scale potential now recognised in this area.
• Drill targets defined at high-grade Edie Creek gold prospect in Papua New Guinea – drilling to commence in August.
• Outstanding copper-gold porphyry target identified at Bolobip in Papua New Guinea – clearly delineated by 1km-diameter copper and gold anomaly.
• Mincor’s share buy-back program successfully completed – 12.4 million shares bought back and cancelled for an outlay of $9.1 million. This represents 6.2% of Mincor’s share capital and reduces shares on issue from 200.6 million to 188.2 million.
• After capital and exploration expenditures of $5.43 million, negative provisional pricing adjustments of $2.45 million and share buy-back expenditures of $4.12 million, Mincor had Quarter-end working capital (cash and receivables minus creditors and accruals) of $78.02 million (end-Mar: $81.7 million), cash at bank of $75.9 million (end-Sept: $75.2 million). The Company has no debt.


----------



## Gringotts Bank

Must be some sort of record.  15 green days in sequence.


----------



## skc

Gringotts Bank said:


> Must be some sort of record.  15 green days in sequence.




Somehow it doesn't feel right. Nickel's gone up a bit and MCR arguably was oversold....but this re-rating is pretty serious.

MBN was priced for bankruptcy which didn't come so it's 100% gain from the base was more understandable. Would be interesting to see what news eventually come off this.


----------



## notting

It seems to me to be like a re invented company.
The old image of itself ran it's course finished earlier than everyone thought it would and so got trashed to oblivion.
Then suddenly, it seemed after their glowing presentation, of what they actually are despite no longer being what they used to be they actually looked quite good.
People looking at them, a new?  
The management has always been pretty good and they have managed to pay dividends for years so with a good record, why not?


----------



## oldblue

Yes, it seems that we should have been at their Perth presentation.

Any eye/ear witnesses? Apart from the presentation slides, that is.


----------



## Gringotts Bank

Just looking at the chart, there was the mother of all double bottoms, which somehow I didn't see.  Gave a target of 95... and it just kept on.


----------



## notting

Gringotts Bank said:


> Just looking at the chart, there was the mother of all double bottoms, which somehow I didn't see.  Gave a target of 95... and it just kept on.




Well go have a look at WHC, then, if your more interested in the power of "now".


----------



## Gringotts Bank

notting said:


> Well go have a look at WHC, then, if your more interested in the power of "now".




What are saying?  All I see is lower highs and lower lows.

Please explain.


----------



## notting

Gringotts Bank said:


> What are saying?  All I see is lower highs and lower lows.
> 
> Please explain.




That's true. 
But I liked the look of what WHC did on 24 Aug and it did a similar thing today with higher volume again at around that level.  It did go a little lower than would be seen as ideal today but finished on it's high with good volume.
It's also notable that almost all the stronger volume bars between the days are on higher finishing positive days.
So it could be another double bottom.


----------



## oowl

What's the latest with this one?


----------



## notting

oowl said:


> What's the latest with this one?




It broke through a 1.01 with volume and the markets probabley looking at 1.30 as next stop?


----------



## notting

Falling wedge has been looking enticing.
However, today it became slighly less so.
Appearing more like it wants to become a wedgy.


----------



## piggybank

The chart (not shown) says that todays price action saw it hit the 61.8% Fib of the down leg from Nov 2012 - Jun 2013.

The chart shown is a daily P&F.

​


----------



## So_Cynical

Mincor to cease operations at both mines  trading at a multi year low of 14c ~ MC of 26M pretty much just what they have left in cash...it really is sad to see a good solid operator like MCR in so much trouble, paid 9 dividends in the last 5 years.

http://www.mincor.com.au/images/mincor---zootohfooy.pdf

WA is a large contributor to global Ni supply, i suppose things won't always be so bleak, perhaps a bit of an opportunity as they have cash for care and maintenance for quite a while, deep value or deep doo doo. :dunno:
~


----------



## So_Cynical

A little over a year later, they still have 22 million but the MC is up to 42m, building towards a double bottom.


----------



## pixel

So_Cynical said:


> A little over a year later, they still have 22 million but the MC is up to 42m, building towards a double bottom.



I'd like the formation of a double bottom 
If I'm getting the H&S roughly right, chances are it could actually happen. Let's set the alert.


----------



## So_Cynical

pixel said:


> I'd like the formation of a double bottom
> If I'm getting the H&S roughly right, chances are it could actually happen. Let's set the alert.




A bounce off the bottom trend line is probably just as likely.
`


----------



## pixel

Testing rising Support. Neither of my two alerts has fired yet, so I'm not doing anything with this one - except watching...


----------



## sptrawler

Still too big a stockpile of nickel, in the World, for prices to lift. Price of nickel back down to US $4.60/lb, we don't make money till around U.S $5 /lb, from my knowledge.
However, Aluminium is worth keeping an eye on. IMO


----------



## pixel

price has dropped below the rising trendline in my latest chart. Volume is below par.
I'm still not doing anything.


----------



## sptrawler

Well if S.A go ahead with the battery storage idea, and every one else in the World jumps on board, that will really help. I think these new high capacity batteries, have a nickel and cobalt component, in the manufacture.
A link to the LME levels shows the problem.

http://www.infomine.com/investment/warehouse-levels/nickel/all/

Then compare that chart, to the historical levels for aluminium.

http://www.infomine.com/investment/warehouse-levels/aluminum/all/

Now that's what we want to see, with the closing of smelters and the increase in demand, one would think a shortage is on the horizon. Just my opinion.

By the way, how do you post the chart, rather than the link, it looks so much more professional.


----------



## tech/a

pixel said:


> View attachment 70325
> 
> 
> price has dropped below the rising trendline in my latest chart. Volume is below par.
> I'm still not doing anything.




Does that look like a Reverse H/S to you P ?


----------



## pixel

tech/a said:


> Does that look like a Reverse H/S to you P ?



Not really, it hadn't, t/a
the only possible pattern resembling a H&S I could see is this:






but that's not reverse. If it were fond at the top of a rising trend, it might indicate a reversal, but here it could at best be taken to suggest a Bearish continuation.


----------



## tech/a

Yes your right.
I must have been standing on my head!!

Low side target 15c


----------



## sptrawler

Nickel above $1300/ton, Panoramic taking Savannah out of mothballs, hooray at last a light at the end of the nickel mine. lol


----------



## sptrawler

Mincor just had their first gold pour from the Widgi mine, hopefully the results are good it will give them a greater degree of flexibility, rather than being a one trick pony (with nickel).


----------



## sptrawler

sptrawler said:


> Mincor just had their first gold pour from the Widgi mine, hopefully the results are good it will give them a greater degree of flexibility, rather than being a one trick pony (with nickel).




Here is a link to the news.
https://thewest.com.au/business/min...dgiemooltha-fuels-nickel-search-ng-b88907263z


----------



## sptrawler

High grade strike, at Cassini lease, Kambalda, possible 118,000 nickel tonnes contained.

https://www.intelligentinvestor.com.au/company/mincor-resources-MCR-12128/announcements


----------



## Ann

*Mincor Resources secures nickel offtake agreement with BHP Nickel West as restart plans gain momentum*
_
As it advances restart preparations Mincor Resources (ASX: MCR) has secured an offtake term sheet with BHP’s (ASX: BHP) subsidiary BHP Billiton Nickel West Pty Ltd, which will underpin a binding agreement between the parties.


The latest agreement replaces a previous 20-year contract between Mincor and BHP Nickel West, which expired earlier this year.


Under the new deal, Mincor has the right to transport up to 600,000 tonnes per annum of nickel sulphide ore to BHP Nickel West’s Kambalda facilities in Western Australia for processing.


The contract takes effect from the date Mincor delivers its first ore and expires either on the fifth anniversary of that date or 31 December 2025 – whichever comes first. More..




_


----------



## sptrawler

I may be able to pull these out of the bottom draw again, which is a change, I'm normally putting shares in there.


----------



## sptrawler

Ann said:


> *Mincor Resources secures nickel offtake agreement with BHP Nickel West as restart plans gain momentum*
> _
> As it advances restart preparations Mincor Resources (ASX: MCR) has secured an offtake term sheet with BHP’s (ASX: BHP) subsidiary BHP Billiton Nickel West Pty Ltd, which will underpin a binding agreement between the parties.
> 
> 
> The latest agreement replaces a previous 20-year contract between Mincor and BHP Nickel West, which expired earlier this year.
> 
> 
> Under the new deal, Mincor has the right to transport up to 600,000 tonnes per annum of nickel sulphide ore to BHP Nickel West’s Kambalda facilities in Western Australia for processing.
> 
> 
> The contract takes effect from the date Mincor delivers its first ore and expires either on the fifth anniversary of that date or 31 December 2025 – whichever comes first. More..
> 
> View attachment 93098
> _



Mincor still running Ann.

https://au.finance.yahoo.com/chart/...0b3IiOjAuNDUsImNoYXJ0TmFtZSI6ImNoYXJ0In19fX0=


----------



## Ann

sptrawler said:


> Mincor still running Ann.




It has been sp, a bit of a dip yesterday, drawing a little breath perhaps?


----------



## Ann

Ann said:


> It has been sp, a bit of a dip yesterday, drawing a little breath perhaps?




OK, maybe it is drawing a really deep breath! Looking at the EquiVolume chart .48c looks like an area of selling pressure which may act as a resistance level, .42c looks like a darn good support, which may or may not be needed.


----------



## sptrawler

Ann said:


> OK, maybe it is drawing a really deep breath! Looking at the EquiVolume chart .48c looks like an area of selling pressure which may act as a resistance level, .42c looks like a darn good support, which may or may not be needed.
> 
> View attachment 93968



Just arrived at a decent internet access point, I certainly missed that top. Thanks for posting up your thoughts Ann, they are greatly appreciated, I will just hang in for the long run as I usually do. From memory my entry point was around 36c, so all is good.


----------



## sptrawler

Mincor to buy longmine decline, to add to the portfolio of Kambalda nickel assetts, only down side a capital raising. 

https://thewest.com.au/business/min...ups-shuttered-long-nickel-mine-ng-b881208386z

A good move if the nickel price recovers, otherwise they could become the biggest non producing nickel miner in the World.


----------



## sptrawler

Well the capital raising was oversubscribed, by Institutions and sophisticated investors, so hopefully a good sign.

https://thewest.com.au/business/min...ups-shuttered-long-nickel-mine-ng-b881208386z


----------



## sptrawler

The capital raising to retail shareholders, also closed early and oversubscribed, it would appear there is some confidence out there.

I do hold


----------



## tinhat

I've taken a speculative punt on some nickel stocks including MCR (others are WSA, SGQ and CZI which I have held for some time). Electric vehicle battery cathode chemistry is now up to 80% nickel and I've read that the industry is working on a 90% nickel cathode chemistry. Nickel gives the highest energy density in lithium-ion batteries (most energy stored for least weight). A lot of analysts are forecasting a nickel deficit in the next couple of years. The off-take agreement with BHP's Nickel West and their exciting prospects are alluring. BHP released an investor presentation a couple of months ago which highlighted Nickel as one of their strategic resources over the medium term due to the massive wave of demand that is coming for electric vehicle batteries.


----------



## sptrawler

tinhat said:


> I've taken a speculative punt on some nickel stocks including MCR (others are WSA, SGQ and CZI which I have held for some time). Electric vehicle battery cathode chemistry is now up to 80% nickel and I've read that the industry is working on a 90% nickel cathode chemistry. Nickel gives the highest energy density in lithium-ion batteries (most energy stored for least weight). A lot of analysts are forecasting a nickel deficit in the next couple of years. The off-take agreement with BHP's Nickel West and their exciting prospects are alluring. BHP released an investor presentation a couple of months ago which highlighted Nickel as one of their strategic resources over the medium term due to the massive wave of demand that is coming for electric vehicle batteries.



I'm with you on the nickel speculation, WSA have jumped recently, also the LME stockpile is very low by recent standards.
As you say demand should increase, mines require re opening so there will be a time lag, also Indonesia is talking about suspending nickel mining. I have been adding to WSA and MCR, hope we have called it right.


----------



## aus_trader

sptrawler said:


> I'm with you on the nickel speculation, WSA have jumped recently, also the LME stockpile is very low by recent standards.
> As you say demand should increase, mines require re opening so there will be a time lag, also Indonesia is talking about suspending nickel mining. I have been adding to WSA and MCR, hope we have called it right.



I've also seen a little rally happening in Ni stocks as you mentioned. Also have a little exposure via a Ni/Co spec play that has big future plans.

Good commodity that actually has a lot of uses. Used to be pretty much used exclusively for strengthening Iron in the steel making process but now also picking up demand for rechargeable batteries used for industrial and EV (Electric Vehicle) applications.


----------



## sptrawler

aus_trader said:


> I've also seen a little rally happening in Ni stocks as you mentioned. Also have a little exposure via a Ni/Co spec play that has big future plans.
> 
> Good commodity that actually has a lot of uses. Used to be pretty much used exclusively for strengthening Iron in the steel making process but now also picking up demand for rechargeable batteries used for industrial and EV (Electric Vehicle) applications.



Yes it is used to make stainless steel and the global down turn reduced the consumption. The big driver will be the reserves are down to 150kltons, down from about 450 at the peak from memory. Most of the mines closed when it dropped below US$5/lb, instead of giving it away, this has eaten away at the stockpiles. Also as you say batteries are just around the corner and nickel is one of the major components, lithium is a much smaller content in the battery contrary to what people think.


----------



## sptrawler




----------



## sptrawler

Nickel price is on a serious rise, as per the chart I posted, next time I will add the text first.
Price in $US/ton on the Y axis.

Also a bit of background info, as to the price surge.
https://steelguru.com/metal/nickel-hits-one-year-high-as-investors-bet-ev-adoption/544678#tag

I do hold Nickel stocks.


----------



## sptrawler

It looks as though BHP is concentrating on high quality nickel sulphate and upgrading the Kwinana refinery to produce battery grade nickel.

https://www.bhp.com/our-businesses/minerals-australia/nickel-west

 Mincor has officially signed up to binding 600ktpa supply contract today.

http://www.mincor.com.au/images/mincor---keechifeik.pdf


----------



## sptrawler

Mincor, Diggers and Dealers presentation, all sounds good for a start up date announcement later this year and a resource update later this month.
https://www.asx.com.au/asxpdf/20190807/pdf/4478w70b7hkcvf.pdf

Mincor price chart below.

https://www.marketindex.com.au/asx/mcr


----------



## myrtie100




----------



## sptrawler

I was doing so well, till it turned to $hit.


----------



## explod

sptrawler said:


> I was doing so well, till it turned to $hit.



Good reverse hammer there, and low volume so maybe a bit of a sell of a fridy,  wait and see


----------



## rnr

Hey, go easy with that whip SP, I'll get you there......trust me. (Well my take on it anyway.)


----------



## sptrawler

I'm wetting myself with anticipation rnr, if your expected rise happens, i may jump on the sell button.
I'm so sick of these ups and downs.


----------



## aus_trader

sptrawler said:


> I'm wetting myself with anticipation rnr, if your expected rise happens, i may jump on the sell button.
> I'm so sick of these ups and downs.



I have also been really frustrated with the up and down volatility of late, see the picture in the global markets of late with so much volatility...





Chopping up traders like me to mince meat !

I've actually exited bulk of my stocks on the 6th of August and now only hold a few strategic plays in my trading portfolio such as Gold plays and somewhat defensive plays.


----------



## tech/a

rnr said:


> View attachment 97018
> 
> 
> Hey, go easy with that whip SP, I'll get you there......trust me. (Well my take on it anyway.)




Anyone in this should have seriously considered an exit at the test of 
The high at B


----------



## tinhat

tech/a said:


> Anyone in this should have seriously considered an exit at the test of
> The high at B




Maybe for you but not in my opinion. I don't have the interest in spending time to make buy/sell decisions on the basis of reviewing charts daily. I'm happy with the company (management), I'm bullish on the sector. I'm seeing a firmly established up trend since mid '17. It could be back to 40c next week for all I know but it might end up range bound between 45c and 55c for some time


----------



## tech/a

Certainly possible


----------



## sptrawler

tinhat said:


> Maybe for you but not in my opinion. I don't have the interest in spending time to make buy/sell decisions on the basis of reviewing charts daily. I'm happy with the company (management), I'm bullish on the sector. I'm seeing a firmly established up trend since mid '17. It could be back to 40c next week for all I know but it might end up range bound between 45c and 55c for some time



That is the exact problem I have tinhat, Mincor now own basically all  of the Kambalda nickel mines, BHP own the mill and processing plant.
Mincor will go back into production, there is a town, mines that are ready to re start, so no money required to remove overburden.
So do you sit, or sell and rely on a price drop for a re entry, that is always the issue I have trouble with.
Im like you and tend to just stick with the fundamentals.


----------



## tinhat

sptrawler said:


> That is the exact problem I have tinhat, Mincor now own basically all  of the Kambalda nickel mines, BHP own the mill and processing plant.
> Mincor will go back into production, there is a town, mines that are ready to re start, so no money required to remove overburden.
> So do you sit, or sell and rely on a price drop for a re entry, that is always the issue I have trouble with.
> Im like you and tend to just stick with the fundamentals.





sptrawler said:


> That is the exact problem I have tinhat, Mincor now own basically all  of the Kambalda nickel mines, BHP own the mill and processing plant.
> Mincor will go back into production, there is a town, mines that are ready to re start, so no money required to remove overburden.
> So do you sit, or sell and rely on a price drop for a re entry, that is always the issue I have trouble with.
> Im like you and tend to just stick with the fundamentals.



'
Brother, tell me more about your problems.


----------



## sptrawler

Mincor up grade their resource reserves.
http://www.mincor.com.au/images/mincor---bohmoomuno.pdf

Don't think it is going to help my tipping comp standing.
I do hold.


----------



## aus_trader

Good luck sptrawler, there's a few days left in the August comp so MCR may still climb up the ladder and who knows may even win. I think you are one of the top contenders in 5th position.

Today MCR had an up day against a falling market, perhaps helped by the announcement regarding res upgrade. So in this market it's doing alright I reckon.


----------



## sptrawler

aus_trader said:


> Good luck sptrawler, there's a few days left in the August comp so MCR may still climb up the ladder and who knows may even win. I think you are one of the top contenders in 5th position.
> 
> Today MCR had an up day against a falling market, perhaps helped by the announcement regarding res upgrade. So in this market it's doing alright I reckon.



Big problem is, it isn't a penny dreadful, so it needs a big price movement to improve its percentage. 1c up on a 2c share is a big movement. 
Mincor would have probably been a better bet in the annual contest, by then they should be producing.


----------



## aus_trader

sptrawler said:


> Big problem is, it isn't a penny dreadful, so it needs a big price movement to improve its percentage. 1c up on a 2c share is a big movement.
> Mincor would have probably been a better bet in the annual contest, by then they should be producing.



I have followed Mincor over the years as well and unlike in it's early days there is no fireworks in the share price movement these days. But you never know, the 'penny dreadful' leaders could tumble giving you the top position 

On a more serious note, I've been impressed with MCR management in regards to holding onto assets (Nickel mines) during price downturns by just keeping them mothballed under care and maintenance and when the Ni price is higher, goes back into production. I think this is a smarter strategy than continuing to mine under circumstances where it costs more to produce the stuff than what it could then be sold at. That's recipe for disaster that has taken many small mining firms in the voluntary administration / bankruptcy direction.


----------



## sptrawler

aus_trader said:


> I have followed Mincor over the years as well and unlike in it's early days there is no fireworks in the share price movement these days. But you never know, the 'penny dreadful' leaders could tumble giving you the top position
> 
> On a more serious note, I've been impressed with MCR management in regards to holding onto assets (Nickel mines) during price downturns by just keeping them mothballed under care and maintenance and when the Ni price is higher, goes back into production. I think this is a smarter strategy than continuing to mine under circumstances where it costs more to produce the stuff than what it could then be sold at. That's recipe for disaster that has taken many small mining firms in the voluntary administration / bankruptcy direction.



Yes the management seem to have their head screwed on all right, my son has lived up in Kambalda for the last 15 or so years, so he is looking forward to things starting up again.
The Town is still bubbling along on the back of gold mines, but there is nothing like the activity when the nickel mill and concentrator are up and running, they employ a lot more people.


----------



## sptrawler

Great annual report for MCR, looking good for imminent re start," thunderbirds are go".
I do hold, forgive the excitement, beginning to pull away from GG in the tipping thread. Possible third place, the whip is out.  
https://www.asx.com.au/asxpdf/20190829/pdf/447zkl85y2c96g.pdf


----------



## sptrawler

Out today, now to wait for a re entry.


----------



## tinhat

sptrawler said:


> Out today, now to wait for a re entry.



I can understand going short on stocks and long cash in the current market environment but in my opinion, MCR might still just be waking up from a deep slumber.

I like to look at the Coppock Indicator on the monthly chart when I am considering a stock for a long-term hold (which is my preferred position). I hold.


----------



## sptrawler

tinhat said:


> I can understand going short on stocks and long cash in the current market environment but in my opinion, MCR might still just be waking up from a deep slumber.
> 
> I like to look at the Coppock Indicator on the monthly chart when I am considering a stock for a long-term hold (which is my preferred position). I hold.
> 
> View attachment 97136



I agree with you and hopefully get back in, just locking in a profit ATM.


----------



## aus_trader

sptrawler said:


> Out today, now to wait for a re entry.



Well done on the profit. I have traded this in the past for a profit as well.

As you and tinhat said, this may have further upside if the Ni mines are confirmed to re-start in the near future. Annual report showed a good amount of cash remaining mainly from the cap raise, so looks pretty good to start generating profits from mining.

Nice bullish up day today to sell into but might have to wait for a pull back to buy...

tinhat, how do you use or what do you look for with Cappock indicator ? I've also come across one called Cappock guide. Are they the same ?


----------



## tinhat

Hi @aus_trader

I'm only aware of the one Coppock indicator, I don't know of any variations so there are probably just different terms that refer to the same thing.

I subscribe to the Lincoln Indicators Stock Doctor service and I have been using their PC based charting program for years. That is where I got that chart from.  That chart format is my own creation. The first indicator is the Commodity Channel (which I don't really use, I should remove it). The bottom indicator is the Coppock. This is the description of the Coppock that is provided in the Stock Doctor charting programme:

"Created by Edwin Coppock. Designed to signal when stock market "mourning" would be over following a crash in it's price.  This period was thought to be between 11 and 14 months as this is how long church leaders advised Coppock that it took for a person to get over the death of a loved one.

"WIth [sic] default parameters this indicator is intended for a monthly chart.  To adapt to a daily chart change parameters to 231 and 294 for ROC periods and 210 for the WMA periods."​
My understanding is Coppock designed the indicator based on the advice of a clergyman about how long the period of emotional grieving usually takes following the death of a loved one.

It is a slow-moving, long-lagging indicator. As such it should give some confidence that a bottom has been passed in a stock's price behaviour. My understanding is that it is intended to be used to confirm that a stock has bottomed, which is indicated by the Coppock indicator bottoming and turning up.

I am primarily a fundamental analysis (FA) investor so I am generally hoping to find and hold long term positions. I am, however, increasingly looking for increased guidance on buy and sell signals via technical analysis (TA). Now some FA will not countenance the use of TA as they consider the two to be antithetic, two sides of a coin. Whereas for me a coin is still a coin regardless of whether it is showing tails or heads. FA purists will state that in the short term the market is a voting machine but in the long run the market is a weighing machine; that in the long-run price will align with value. In retort a TA purist will argue that the market might be wrong for longer than you remain liquid (which reminds me of Keynes's quote "In the long run we are all dead", which I assume was a retort to neo-classical laissez-fairism).

I do like the idea of owning equity in (a part of) an enterprise which I believe will generate genuine economic and social benefit. I like Nickel because of the emerging electric vehicle and renewable energy storage theme. 

With that said, the reality is that I am investing my money and my family's money to make more money for our financial security. Time is opportunity-cost; money lost that could have been made elsewhere. That is the financial concept of net present value which any FA should be familiar with.

Markets exhibit behavior which cannot be explained by FA. Markets are driven by human behavior (including bots programmed by humans and motivated by their greed) and that behaviour appears to follow other patterns of behavior (dynamics) observed in the natural world.

So, why be out in the surf when there are no waves to catch when you could be checking out the girls on the beach? Why stand in the middle of a stampede or not avoid a traffic jam if you could? Why suffer the risk of opportunity-cost if you feel that you might be able to avoid some of that risk? And here lies the rub. What any investor that eschews TA is not telling you is that the reason is they don't know how to implement TA and that at best it is a zero sum game and at worst a losing strategy because it clouds judgement.

I like looking at monthly, weekly and daily charts and I apply different indicators and studies to them all. Market price movements are fractal, which is evident from the fact that people apply similar TA to study of intra-day, end of day, weekly and monthly time-frames. My investing style is to look for long-term positions, but in gauging the market I like to look at all three time scales.

Many people are familiar with the beautiful Mandelbrot Set images. For people who don't know a lot about Benoit Mandelbrot, it might be of interest to know that he came to fractal geometry from early work he did with IBM studying line noise on telephone lines. He noticed that noise patterns during data transfer occurred in a fractal manner; that is that similar patterns could be observed repeating at different time scales. He went on the pioneer the use of fractal geometry and observed that it also applied to financial markets.

That's the how and why I use the Coppock indicator on a monthly chart.


----------



## sptrawler

Hi austrader, I'm sure there is heaps of upside in MCR, but with the volatility ATM, there could quite easily be a retracement due to the trade war issues.
Longer term the push toward battery storage is only going to increase, and MCR are perfectly placed to benefit.
If there is no retracement, the price I think will dwell around this price, untill they announce the start up date.
Then I will buy back in, I may lose a bit of up side, but I avoid possible down side.
Tinhats method is much more accurate, but I find being retired I am limited with the time I spend doing research, this is due to family and holiday commitments.
It would be much easier, if my other half was interested. Lol
Just my opinion.


----------



## aus_trader

sptrawler said:


> Hi austrader, I'm sure there is heaps of upside in MCR, but with the volatility ATM, there could quite easily be a retracement due to the trade war issues.



Yes, a retracement would be what I am looking for to buy some stock, I generally don't like to chase the price higher. So let's wait and see...


----------



## aus_trader

tinhat said:


> It is a slow-moving, long-lagging indicator. As such it should give some confidence that a bottom has been passed in a stock's price behaviour. My understanding is that it is intended to be used to confirm that a stock has bottomed, which is indicated by the Coppock indicator bottoming and turning up.



Being slow and lagging is probably a good thing. If it is very responsive like RSI, Stock or even CCI which you have on your chart, then the problem is too many false signals that indicates a stock is over sold. With just a small bounce in the share price, which may indicate a bottom might be in using any of the above indicators it's easy to buy into a falling stock too early.

Coppock looks interesting for the longer timeframes. Thanks for the explanation of how it functions and a bit of background on the indicator. 

I am also mainly into FA and stock research. However I do not have any negative bias towards TA or chart reading. I actually find charts interesting and help me gauge the market's perception of the stock by looking at the chart. Therefore I use charting to try and avoid buying into falling stocks even if the fundamental case is strong. I think you have a similar approach from what you said, I especially like the bit:


tinhat said:


> So, why be out in the surf when there are no waves to catch when you could be checking out the girls on the beach?


----------



## sptrawler

sptrawler said:


> Out today, now to wait for a re entry.



Well the negative sentiment to Trump's tarrif increase over the weekend, didn't translate into a market bloodbath and I missed out on 10% price jump. Typical.


----------



## aus_trader

sptrawler said:


> Well the negative sentiment to Trump's tarrif increase over the weekend, didn't translate into a market bloodbath and I missed out on 10% price jump. Typical.



I think that's because there was a public holiday in the US and the market was closed.


----------



## sptrawler

aus_trader said:


> I think that's because there was a public holiday in the US and the market was closed.



Yes maybe tomorrow, I live in hope.


----------



## aus_trader

MCR is really having a good run supported by the news flow of late, such as the exceptional hits of Ni from the recent drilling:






Leaves my Nickel Cobalt spec play in the dust in terms of recent performance. I have CLQ in my spec portfolio for a while and it hasn't gone anywhere compared to the bigger Ni players like MCR, WSA and IGO. Hoping some of the shine on Ni may rub off onto small cap Ni spec's or I'll have to join the likes of MCR on a decent pull back...


----------



## sptrawler

Back in today at 64c, didn't go as planned, but not much damage.


----------



## aus_trader

sptrawler said:


> Back in today at 64c, didn't go as planned, but not much damage.



It's always hard to know when a stock will pull back and when it'll take off. If we knew then making money would be easy.

All we can do is to manage trades that has higher probability of going in our favour.


----------



## Boggo

aus_trader said:


> It's always hard to know when a stock will pull back and when it'll take off. If we knew then making money would be easy.
> 
> All we can do is to manage trades that has higher probability of going in our favour.




Just me thinking out loud...
Looking at the weekly that is not a pattern that I like, ie, a down bar after a significant upthrust with high volume. It is only Tuesday and the volume may pick up to last weeks level but I tend to look at these patterns as an opportunity that sellers are on to.
Today's overall sentiment may have had an influence too though.

Don't take this as any sort of prediction, just my thought process of a pattern that I avoid.


----------



## aus_trader

Boggo said:


> Just me thinking out loud...
> Looking at the weekly that is not a pattern that I like, ie, a down bar after a significant upthrust with high volume. It is only Tuesday and the volume may pick up to last weeks level but I tend to look at these patterns as an opportunity that sellers are on to.
> Today's overall sentiment may have had an influence too though.
> 
> Don't take this as any sort of prediction, just my thought process of a pattern that I avoid.



Thanks for your thoughts Boggo, I think you might be right and a bit more pull back may be in play here.


----------



## sptrawler

Boggo said:


> Just me thinking out loud...
> Looking at the weekly that is not a pattern that I like, ie, a down bar after a significant upthrust with high volume. It is only Tuesday and the volume may pick up to last weeks level but I tend to look at these patterns as an opportunity that sellers are on to.
> Today's overall sentiment may have had an influence too though.
> 
> Don't take this as any sort of prediction, just my thought process of a pattern that I avoid.



Hi Boggo, I too am not sure which way it will go in the near term, however they are to announce their start mining date in this quarter.
I haven't filled the position I hope to end up with, just bought an initial parcel at an entry price close to my exit price a bit of a one each way.
I do expect nickel to continue its march upward, as the LME stockpile is still very low and Indonesia has confirmed they will ban mining nickel next year. I looked at the chart, but as per usual I may as well be reading hieroglyphics. 
I do appreciate your input, you have a knack of reading it correctly, thanks for your thoughts.


----------



## tinhat

It might find support at 0.59 which would keep it in an uptrend.


----------



## sptrawler

Boggo said:


> Just me thinking out loud...
> Looking at the weekly that is not a pattern that I like, ie, a down bar after a significant upthrust with high volume. It is only Tuesday and the volume may pick up to last weeks level but I tend to look at these patterns as an opportunity that sellers are on to.
> Today's overall sentiment may have had an influence too though.
> 
> Don't take this as any sort of prediction, just my thought process of a pattern that I avoid.



Looks as though you were spot on Boggo, hopefully the fall continues and I will have another bite.
Where do you feel the bottom will be? Tinhat suggests 59c may hold.


----------



## Boggo

sptrawler said:


> Looks as though you were spot on Boggo, hopefully the fall continues and I will have another bite.
> Where do you feel the bottom will be? Tinhat suggests 59c may hold.




Not sure really @sptrawler, will have a look in the morning at the latest data (have to go out to dinner in a minute).
With my post I wasn't really making a prediction but as you know instead of finding stocks that may run up you are better off recognising the ones that won't or may not (MCR being one of those just at the moment imo).


----------



## rnr

Hey SP,

This is my take on a possible outcome for MCR which is much the same as my last post (#373 on August 23rd) when I suggested you go easy on the whip. Hopefully a bounce upwards from around the 57-58¢ mark. 
Looking back over the years there would seem to be reasonably good support in the 55-58¢ area.


----------



## sptrawler

Thanks guys, I am trying to get my head around charting, downloaded incredible charts, all I've got up until now is an incredible headache.


----------



## aus_trader

sptrawler said:


> Thanks guys, I am trying to get my head around charting, downloaded incredible charts, all I've got up until now is an incredible headache.



Funny that, but in the end it's worth it to input the End-Of-Day data and have the charts displayed the way you want in the charting platform of your choice.


----------



## Boggo

sptrawler said:


> Thanks guys, I am trying to get my head around charting, downloaded incredible charts, all I've got up until now is an incredible headache.




Not much to work on with MCR daily. @rnr has pretty much identified what there is in post #407 above.

@sptrawler what rnr and I are looking at is points of resistance on the way up can and often become points of support on the way down. There are many ways of interpreting what happened at those points on the way up but from a charting approach they can be of interest either as a stop level or a point of reversal/re-entry on the way down.

(click to expand)


----------



## sptrawler

Thanks Boggo, rnr and Tinhat, I am starting to use the charts and with the info on ASF it is making the learning process much easier, oh to be young again when the gray matter worked.
With regard MCR I will be holding for the longer term so it shouldn't matter too much, however I was looking at the MACD last night and I can see that my timing was terrible.
So thanks for the info and don't hesitate to tell me when I get it wrong.
Now to start on points of resistance.


----------



## tinhat

Boggo said:


> Not much to work on with MCR daily. @rnr has pretty much identified what there is in post #407 above.
> 
> @sptrawler what rnr and I are looking at is points of resistance on the way up can and often become points of support on the way down. There are many ways of interpreting what happened at those points on the way up but from a charting approach they can be of interest either as a stop level or a point of reversal/re-entry on the way down.
> 
> (click to expand)
> View attachment 97375






sptrawler said:


> Thanks Boggo, rnr and Tinhat, I am starting to use the charts and with the info on ASF it is making the learning process much easier, oh to be young again when the gray matter worked.
> With regard MCR I will be holding for the longer term so it shouldn't matter too much, however I was looking at the MACD last night and I can see that my timing was terrible.
> So thanks for the info and don't hesitate to tell me when I get it wrong.
> Now to start on points of resistance.




When it comes to TA I would defer to Boggo (EW analysis) and many others here before myself as I am not a disciplined follower of TA (yet!). 

As a TA ignoramus, may I suggest looking at price charts without looking at any other indicator, volume, or any study such as any MA, MACD, RSI etc. I like weekly charts because that suits my ability to give weight to analysis and buy/hold/sell decisions. Just looking at the price chart over time (sometimes going back over a few years) are there points where the price seems to hold then move one way or the other? Support/Resistance. At what point does resistance become support or vice-versa indicating a change in trend?

I would then suggest looking at price action in combination with volume as professed by Tech/A (The Duck) (VSA) but not necessarily worrying about his break-out trading style at first. My suggestion is to observe price and volume in terms of accumulation, distribution, up-trend, down-trend and failed break-outs, exhaustion of buyers or sellers.


----------



## aus_trader

tinhat said:


> When it comes to TA I would defer to Boggo (EW analysis) and many others here before myself as I am not a disciplined follower of TA (yet!).
> 
> As a TA ignoramus, may I suggest looking at price charts without looking at any other indicator, volume, or any study such as any MA, MACD, RSI etc. I like weekly charts because that suits my ability to give weight to analysis and buy/hold/sell decisions. Just looking at the price chart over time (sometimes going back over a few years) are there points where the price seems to hold then move one way or the other? Support/Resistance. At what point does resistance become support or vice-versa indicating a change in trend?
> 
> I would then suggest looking at price action in combination with volume as professed by Tech/A (The Duck) (VSA) but not necessarily worrying about his break-out trading style at first. My suggestion is to observe price and volume in terms of accumulation, distribution, up-trend, down-trend and failed break-outs, exhaustion of buyers or sellers.



I like your thinking tinhat. I am no technical guru either but what you have said applies to me. I like to look at price primarily then volume for additional evidence. All other indicators are derived from either price or volume, so have lesser priority/weight given to them.


----------



## aus_trader

After waiting for a long time reading all of the fellow ASF member comments, decided to buy some shares for my spec portfolio. Details of the purchase are in Speculative Stock Portfolio.


----------



## sptrawler

aus_trader said:


> After waiting for a long time reading all of the fellow ASF member comments, decided to buy some shares for my spec portfolio. Details of the purchase are in Speculative Stock Portfolio.



That's brave, you do know I hold, so that has already put the mockers on it.


----------



## Boggo

Follow on from post #410 above...

It has hit a support level on the daily chart.
For my "eyeball test" to keep me interested I like to see any reversal reach the high or low of the third most recent bar.
No proven reason or test for that view but a way of sometimes narrowing the field and in the case of MCR that would mean a run back up to 0.61 or higher.
Just my 

(click to expand)


----------



## tech/a

[QUOTE="tinhat, post: 1040101, member: 26249]

I would then suggest looking at price action in combination with volume as professed by Tech/A (The Duck) (VSA) but not necessarily worrying about his break-out trading style at first. My suggestion is to observe price and volume in terms of accumulation, distribution, up-trend, down-trend and failed break-outs, exhaustion of buyers or sellers.[/QUOTE]


Agree re VSA


----------



## rnr

Would agree with @Boggo that MCR is at the upper level of support and just above the the 57.2¢ level where wave a = (a potential) end of wave c.
Volume has continued to drop since the high of September 2nd.
Hopefully price will bounce from here and take out the recent high of 73.5¢


----------



## aus_trader

sptrawler said:


> That's brave, you do know I hold, so that has already put the mockers on it.



Yes, I waited for the price to get to those support levels suggested by the members with better charting skills than us.


----------



## Boggo

aus_trader said:


> Yes, I waited for the price to get to those support levels suggested by the members with better charting skills than us.




I'm a bit cautious at support levels @aus_trader, initially there needs to be signs of indecision and then I need to see a positive indication of a turnaround and to get that you need to be prepared to give up a few cents (the 61c level on MCR would be my "eyeball" guide - see the TLS thread where there are similarities at support).
As Radge would say "don't be a dick for a tick". Just my


----------



## Porper

Boggo said:


> I'm a bit cautious at support levels @aus_trader, initially there needs to be signs of indecision and then I need to see a positive indication of a turnaround and to get that you need to be prepared to give up a few cents (the 61c level on MCR would be my "eyeball" guide - see the TLS thread where there are similarities at support).
> As Radge would say "don't be a dick for a tick". Just my




I am out. 

I believe there is a good chance of heading back down to the breakout area on the weekly chart above. Another buying opportunity perhaps.


----------



## peter2

MCR Notes:
March 2019 - Nickel offtake agreement with BHP Nickel West for processing of Kambalda nickel ore.
May 2019 acquires Long Nickel Operation from IGO (underground mine)
-Exploration shows more nickel resources (Cassini) and others.

Definitive Feasibility Study on an integrated mine plan late Dec 2019. 
[ie not processing any nickel ore yet.]
Gold mining at WGP ceased, minimal income now

Cap raising $23Mill for exploration and drilling activities. feasibility studies, operational readiness, pre-production capital expenditure and working capital. 

Principle activity is mineral exploration with very minor ore processing (minimal income). 

I'll wait for the DFS and further progress of their nickel production. 
I'll also need to see more bullish price action in the charts.


----------



## rnr

@rnr 
Remember to review daily & weekly chart together!


----------



## Porper

rnr said:


> @rnr
> Remember to review daily & weekly chart together!




Goes without saying. 

It then comes down to your time frame and which patterns you believe are stronger.


----------



## rnr

Porper said:


> Goes without saying.
> 
> It then comes down to your time frame and which patterns you believe are stronger.




Thanks for the comments Porper and I should know better as I've been around long enough.

Probably time I sent that brain chip in for an overhaul....or maybe even exchange it for an updated version.

Cheers,
Rob


----------



## Porper

rnr said:


> Thanks for the comments Porper and I should know better as I've been around long enough.
> 
> Probably time I sent that brain chip in for an overhaul....or maybe even exchange it for an updated version.
> 
> Cheers,
> Rob




We all make mistakes still. 

I recently forgot to tighten a protective stop and got walloped following an announcement!!


----------



## sptrawler

peter2 said:


> MCR Notes:
> March 2019 - Nickel offtake agreement with BHP Nickel West for processing of Kambalda nickel ore.
> May 2019 acquires Long Nickel Operation from IGO (underground mine)
> -Exploration shows more nickel resources (Cassini) and others.
> 
> Definitive Feasibility Study on an integrated mine plan late Dec 2019.
> [ie not processing any nickel ore yet.]
> Gold mining at WGP ceased, minimal income now
> 
> Cap raising $23Mill for exploration and drilling activities. feasibility studies, operational readiness, pre-production capital expenditure and working capital.
> 
> Principle activity is mineral exploration with very minor ore processing (minimal income).
> 
> I'll wait for the DFS and further progress of their nickel production.
> I'll also need to see more bullish price action in the charts.



That could have been a very prudent post Peter, the DFS has been put back to the March quarter, while they keep looking for resources.
The cash burn continues.


----------



## Padowan

I have picked MCR for the November stock picking contest based on continuing improvement of fundamentals in the nickel market as Tsingshan continues to empty the LME warehouse to use the purchased nickel to supplement stainless steel production in 2020 because of tightness in the market, Indonesian politics creating ongoing supply uncertainty. From a company point of view I am attracted to their Cassini discovery, it appears high grade and open for extension with more drilling, they could also start generating drill results soon from their exploration at the Long nickel mine acquired from IGO earlier this year


----------



## sptrawler

The cash burn should be over, the mining should proceed and the money should flow in 2020. The infrastructure is in place, the workforce housing isn't an issue and an off take contract is signed.
The ducks should line up for Mincor in 2020 and they are starting from a low share price base.
If nickel demand holds up, so should the price and there is always the possibility of a bigger player taking over.


----------



## Padowan

MCR my top pick in the CY20 stock picking competition, in trading halt first trading day of CY20, pending some material exploration result at the Cassini project


----------



## tinhat

Padowan said:


> MCR my top pick in the CY20 stock picking competition, in trading halt first trading day of CY20, pending some material exploration result at the Cassini project



I rekon it's going to be a good year for nickel and copper and we could see some takeover action in this space too (IGO's unsolicited bid for PAN was the warm up act I reckon). I chose ARL and SGQ as more speckie nickel stocks but hold some MCR. Good luck in the tipping comp.


----------



## charlsie

I hope 2020 is their year, i've held them for a long time and just started to accumulate more last year. I purchased cleanaway (CWY) at $1.70 and will look to parlay that into MCR if the announcement is favourable. good luck in the comp Padowan


----------



## Padowan

Today’s release from MCR didn’t disappoint in my mind, a solid drill result showing clear upside at the Cassini project, although the stock traded up 8% over the day, I can’t help but feel this was subdued given trump seems to have moved from one war to another, from a trade war with China to conflict with Iran.


----------



## sptrawler

Andrew Forrest lifts his stake in Mincor to 8.5%

https://www.asx.com.au/asxpdf/20200302/pdf/44fn5mz05d15rm.pdf

I do hold


----------



## sptrawler

Andrew Forrest lifts his stake in Mincor to 13.78%

http://www.mincor.com.au/images/mincor---ogaefohzow.pdf

Further drill hits at Casini improving reserves.

http://www.mincor.com.au/images/mincor---eehaipahta.pdf

I do hold


----------



## aus_trader

I have let it go along with the rest of the stocks during the portfolio liquidation as documented in the Speculative Stock Portfolio. When the market settles down, looking to buy back some stocks to re-populate the spec portfolio and MCR will certainly be in the watchlist.


----------



## sptrawler

Mincor looks to be on the move, the mining contract has been given to Pit N Portal, Perth based hard rock underground mining company (which has recently been purchased by Emeco).
https://www.asx.com.au/asxpdf/20200528/pdf/44j5mm35fv33gn.pdf


----------



## tinhat

Capital raise. SPP. It's all good. I'm going to participate fully in the SPP.

My internal dialogue is whether, after going long gold miners, whether I should be more bullish on copper or nickel. I reckon for a good night's sleep you can't go past copper right? Nickel -- ooh, ooh, EV batteries, have you seen the goth that Elon's breading with? I'm bullish Nickel but it's going to be a bumpy ride because nicke is highly cyclical already for stainless steel and battery use is going to be rather small in comparison to use in stainless steel production.

What I like about MCR. They are near term - ramping up and recommencing mining as I type. Offtake agreement with BHP. BHP looking to expand further into Nickel production.

What I don't like about MCR. IGO are a significant holder. Are they a well managed operation? I don't research anywhere as much as I should. I traded IGO last year and scratched my arse thinking about them at the time. I can't remember why but I wan't impressed. If I recall, it was their attempt at a bit of a raid at Panoramic Resources (PAN) which WSA (which I also hold) have done a much better job of accumulating an interest in.

In any case, consolidation is happening in the nickel space. OZL buying out junior partner CZI in the remote West Musgrave project is one example.

When I bought MCR I liked it on fundamentals, I liked it on sector sentiment and I liked it on the chart. I still like it on those three fronts.

No worries!


----------



## sptrawler

tinhat said:


> Capital raise. SPP. It's all good. I'm going to participate fully in the SPP.
> 
> My internal dialogue is whether, after going long gold miners, whether I should be more bullish on copper or nickel. I reckon for a good night's sleep you can't go past copper right? Nickel -- ooh, ooh, EV batteries, have you seen the goth that Elon's breading with? I'm bullish Nickel but it's going to be a bumpy ride because nicke is highly cyclical already for stainless steel and battery use is going to be rather small in comparison to use in stainless steel production.
> 
> What I like about MCR. They are near term - ramping up and recommencing mining as I type. Offtake agreement with BHP. BHP looking to expand further into Nickel production.
> 
> What I don't like about MCR. IGO are a significant holder. Are they a well managed operation? I don't research anywhere as much as I should. I traded IGO last year and scratched my arse thinking about them at the time. I can't remember why but I wan't impressed. If I recall, it was their attempt at a bit of a raid at Panoramic Resources (PAN) which WSA (which I also hold) have done a much better job of accumulating an interest in.
> 
> In any case, consolidation is happening in the nickel space. OZL buying out junior partner CZI in the remote West Musgrave project is one example.
> 
> When I bought MCR I liked it on fundamentals, I liked it on sector sentiment and I liked it on the chart. I still like it on those three fronts.
> 
> No worries!



IGO are a class act, from what I have heard, run a tight ship all the tees crossed and the i's dotted.
I hold MCR and as you will be taking up the offer.
Don't hold pan and not interested, way too many problems at Savannah for my tastes.


----------



## sptrawler

I would expect an announcement as to the start up programme, now the capital raising is underway.


----------



## sptrawler

Latest resource update.
https://www.asx.com.au/asx/share-price-research/company/MCR


----------



## tinhat

Follow the money. Shanghai Twiggy (Ming) Forrest increases his stake in MCR to 15%. Well, when FMG send you a dividend cheque for $2B, you've got to put your money somewhere.

In other news... Chief Executive Mike Henry re-confirms that BHP is focusing on expansion in three key commodities, Nickel, Copper and Potash, including looking for early stage joint venture opportunities.


----------



## sptrawler

tinhat said:


> Follow the money. Shanghai Twiggy (Ming) Forrest increases his stake in MCR to 15%. Well, when FMG send you a dividend cheque for $2B, you've got to put your money somewhere.
> 
> In other news... Chief Executive Mike Henry re-confirms that BHP is focusing on expansion in three key commodities, Nickel, Copper and Potash, including looking for early stage joint venture opportunities.



I wonder if FMG will make  play for mincor.


----------



## sptrawler

tinhat said:


> In other news... Chief Executive Mike Henry re-confirms that BHP is focusing on expansion in three key commodities, Nickel, Copper and Potash, including looking for early stage joint venture opportunities.



The expansion at the Kwinana nickel refinery looks to be well advanced, when I drove past yesterday.


----------



## over9k

sptrawler said:


> I wonder if FMG will make  play for mincor.



Buying a significant stake in it would be an excellent way of getting the proper look under the lid that you normally wouldn't get


----------



## sptrawler

New intersect at Cassini. Starting to look very good for Mincor.
https://www.asx.com.au/asxpdf/20200909/pdf/44mg80lf0xsyx8.pdf

I do hold


----------



## sptrawler

Mincor to start mining in December quarter, line of credit in place, it looks like 'all steam ahead'.



			https://www.asx.com.au/asxpdf/20200917/pdf/44mq6tmmwkx3bh.pdf


----------



## over9k

Yet, it's down on the day?


----------



## frugal.rock

Not holding, but noticed a solid push today recovering yesterday's losses and them some.


----------



## sptrawler

It may be due to the expectation of a mining start, the box cut at Cassini is in place and the existing mines will require minimal effort for mining to re commence. I am expecting the price to ratchet up over the year.

I do hold.


----------



## rnr

A good example of Bullish Divergence if it keeps playing out with price moving in an upward path!

Well just my take on a potential pissabolity.


----------



## frugal.rock

rnr said:


> Well just my take on a potential pissabolity.



It's a pissabolity that's a VML chart...


----------



## rnr

frugal.rock said:


> It's a pissabolity that's a VML chart...



 Same jockey.....different horse.
Now you would have to agree as that really is divergence on a grand scale!


----------



## sptrawler

Mincor about to start mining going by this presentation, could be the start of something bigger IMO



			https://www.mincor.com.au/site/PDF/4d8a25f0-47f3-473d-9ee6-66beba98a7e7/Presentation
		


I do hold


----------



## peter2

"_... which has put us on a clear pathway to join the ranks of nickel producers within 18 months."  

" ... first nickel concentrate in the March 2022 quarter."

Managing Director, Davis Southam.  _22/10/20 Quarterly Activities Report


----------



## tinhat

@sptrawler and I sometimes correspond about MCR. It's a hidden gem.


----------



## sptrawler

tinhat said:


> @sptrawler and I sometimes correspond about MCR. It's a hidden gem.



I had another bite today, just hope Elon still wants nickel.


----------



## frugal.rock

sptrawler said:


> I had another bite today, just hope Elon still wants nickel.



Stop snacking @sptrawler 

I ordered a double today.
My very first Mincor purchase.
2x positions, 1 hit.

(I also added to SWF, chandelier portion #3, shhhh!  risk on... )


----------



## frugal.rock

A solid open today blasting the $1 stop point.
13 November 2020  
KAMBALDA NICKEL SULPHIDE DEVELOPMENT GATHERS MOMENTUM 

Firing the portal at Cassini marks the start of development of the first new high grade nickel  sulphide mine in Australia in years; development also underway at Northern Operations 

• First firing of the Cassini portal, heralding the start of mining at Australia’s newest nickel mine. 

• Infrastructure progressively installed at Cassini. 

• Terms agreed with BHP Nickel West for the supply of grid power to Cassini.

• First development headings fired at the Long and Otter declines, part of the Northern Operations. 

• Pit N Portal now fully mobilised at both operational centres with new mining equipment delivered.  

• Mincor’s key operational roles recruited and commenced.


----------



## sptrawler

frugal.rock said:


> A solid open today blasting the $1 stop point.
> 13 November 2020
> KAMBALDA NICKEL SULPHIDE DEVELOPMENT GATHERS MOMENTUM
> 
> Firing the portal at Cassini marks the start of development of the first new high grade nickel  sulphide mine in Australia in years; development also underway at Northern Operations
> 
> • First firing of the Cassini portal, heralding the start of mining at Australia’s newest nickel mine.
> 
> • Infrastructure progressively installed at Cassini.
> 
> • Terms agreed with BHP Nickel West for the supply of grid power to Cassini.
> 
> • First development headings fired at the Long and Otter declines, part of the Northern Operations.
> 
> • Pit N Portal now fully mobilised at both operational centres with new mining equipment delivered.
> 
> • Mincor’s key operational roles recruited and commenced.



You little beauty, here we go, yipee.


----------



## peter2

What's the rush?  There was a bit of push and shove in the buy queue this morning. I had to pay a bit more than I'd like. Hoping the excitement will die down and I'll buy a bit more at a price closer to 1.00. 

I'm still waiting for a reasonable dip in PAN. Seems nickel is in demand.


----------



## sptrawler

My guess is the BEV push is going to really heat up, U.K talking about 2030 to stop selling ICE vehicles it wont take long for that to catch on.
There is  lot of stimulus in BEV's and the upside is grid battery storage, it ticks a lot of boxes for Governments until H2 can be established.
Just my thoughts @peter2 .


----------



## over9k

Alright I'm not reading this whole thread, what set this thing off at the start of september?


----------



## frugal.rock

tinhat said:


> @sptrawler and I sometimes correspond about MCR. It's a hidden gem.



I would disagree on the "hidden" gem part.

It's very much out in the open and is no longer hidden. 

The gem is out, washed, has been in the mouth and found to be cool on the tongue, (indicating a real gem has been found).



over9k said:


> Alright I'm not reading this whole thread, what set this thing off at the start of september?



Umm perhaps nickel ? 
and lots of it in a timely fashion at the right time, shortly.


----------



## frugal.rock

peter2 said:


> What's the rush? There was a bit of push and shove in the buy queue this morning. I had to pay a bit more than I'd like.



Hoping the rush is because it's broken through the $1.00 mark. 
With a bit of luck it continues its momentum. Price and volume increasing today.
It's tested the $1 resistance mark 3 times over the last month. 
This is the 4th go, has more momentum and currently is looking like it will stick.
Just my thoughts.


----------



## Porper

Kipp said:


> Yep, but if we all knew the futures for Gold, Nickel, and Zinc for the next 6-12months it wouldn't make investing that much of a challenge, would it?
> but at least Nickel is a component of stainless steel for which the Chinese appetitte knows no end.  Plus batteries ni-cd and NMH, but I don;t really know which of these is the primary driver for Ni price and it's use (hell, batteries prob comprise 0.2% of all Ni used for all I know).
> 
> And this is something else which has just occured to me... are MCR (and all comps for that matter) obligated to put ALL brokers reports on their website?  Or do they just pick and chose the more favourable brokers reports?  [ignoring the SELL recommendations?]




Big rejection intraday. Probably needed to fill the gap...which it's now done. Good close required now.

Disclosure: I hold


----------



## sptrawler

peter2 said:


> What's the rush?  There was a bit of push and shove in the buy queue this morning. I had to pay a bit more than I'd like. Hoping the excitement will die down and I'll buy a bit more at a price closer to 1.00.
> 
> I'm still waiting for a reasonable dip in PAN. Seems nickel is in demand.



My guess is an announcement as per frugal rocks post, that mining is commencing has set it off, also Mincor has a track record of good management and delivering. A lot of the mines in their portfolio are ready to run, so it isn't as though they have to wait to actually strike ore, when they start one would think it would go.
I do hold
Got to head out for lunch.lol


----------



## over9k

Just watched a twiggy interview on bloomberg. He near as no difference said he's transitioning a lot of his business into being a renewable energy business. Considering the amount of energy necessary to produce steel, it makes sense. I'll post it if it gets uploaded to youtube. 

This might be a hell of a rumour to buy on


----------



## over9k

Alright, I've bought. See you all at the unemployment line


----------



## tinhat

frugal.rock said:


> I would disagree on the "hidden" gem part.
> 
> It's very much out in the open and is no longer hidden.
> 
> The gem is out, washed, has been in the mouth and found to be cool on the tongue, (indicating a real gem has been found).
> 
> 
> Umm perhaps nickel ?
> and lots of it in a timely fashion at the right time, shortly.




That's funny to me. I recall members being bearish back in September 2019. I recall my contrary bullish call also in September 2019. I recall there was a capital raise in the mean-time. I took up my full entitlement. Did I state here that I would? I probably did but I can't remember.

so I do laugh. This place is full of chart watchers and dingbat commentary. I don't feel any gravitas to most of the comments made here.


----------



## frugal.rock

tinhat said:


> That's funny to me.





tinhat said:


> so I do laugh. This place is full of chart watchers and dingbat commentary.



Tinhat is amused.
My court jester job here is done.

With all respect, your input is appreciated.
Now that I know a little about how you pick stocks, to know that you hold this bodes well.
Further, I will try to minimise any dingbat commentary and try to keep it cuddly and koala like.


----------



## sptrawler

I wonder if one of the bigger players will make a play for MCR, we have discussed it before but nothing eventuated, I tend to think there will be a consolidation n the nickel space.
There will be a lot required for BEV's and efficiency in size of operation will be a big factor, a lot of material has to be mined, for not a lot of nickel so it can cause a large cash burn.
Just my thoughts, I do hold and am thinking of picking up more nickel producers, the way I see it the demand will really take off soon.
VW BMW and Mercedes, all committing to BEV's in a big way, add to that Hyundai and the Chinese and it all starts to smell of a supply issue IMO.


----------



## over9k

Whatever twiggy's up to, I suspect it's a clone of what adani did. Here's your smoking gun.


----------



## sptrawler

over9k said:


> View attachment 116043
> 
> 
> Whatever twiggy's up to, I suspect it's a clone of what adani did. Here's your smoking gun.



Is twiggy buying in his holding company, or through FMG?


----------



## over9k

How do we tag the admins? It might be worth merging the two threads now?


----------



## over9k

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/arti...-said-to-near-2-5-billion-stake-sale-to-total 

BIG oil company's just bought a 20% stake in adani green. If twiggy's copying adani, this is a very good sign.


----------



## againsthegrain

I was eyeing off a re entry at 118 last week and here a nice dip lands in my lap,  managed to get some spare change at 113.5


----------



## over9k

The chart's solid:


----------



## rnr

$1.12 seems to be forming as a support level.


----------



## over9k

Nah no way. There's tons of steps in the chart. The SMA is still strongly upwards. 

If it hasn't shot up again in 2-3 weeks, I'll agree with you


----------



## tinhat

@sptrawler has got to be the most conservative investor I have met on these boards over many years. I haven't kept my eyes on the fundamentals for some time now. I'm not good at that. I like to look at management and actual performance.

If you like the outlook for nickel, you can't pass up MCR.


----------



## sptrawler

tinhat said:


> @sptrawler has got to be the most conservative investor I have met on these boards over many years. I haven't kept my eyes on the fundamentals for some time now. I'm not good at that. I like to look at management and actual performance.
> 
> If you like the outlook for nickel, you can't pass up MCR.



The price is certainly losing momentum, they haven't announced any production yet, so I would assume interest is fading. Nickel price is still slowly rising, the virus has probably stymied demand for BEV's, so demand probably is flat. As you say @tinhat  it is just a matter of personal belief in nickel demand.
Just my thoughts.
I do hold


----------



## sptrawler

Mincor fully funded to production.


			https://cdn-api.markitdigital.com/apiman-gateway/ASX/asx-research/1.0/file/2924-02357670-6A1026187?access_token=83ff96335c2d45a094df02a206a39ff4
		

Still holding.


----------



## frugal.rock

Wanted to buy at open but missed it by 3 minutes, grrr.

Strong open from announcement;
"Massive sulphides intersected at Golden Mile"

Would've thought me mates son who works there would've let his old man know so he could pass it on to me....🤫🤐😬 
joking...☠️


----------



## sptrawler

Mincor have struck high mineralisation between the Long shaft and Durkin mines, this is new ground as the mines were previously owned by separate entities and therefore hadn't been previously drilled.


			https://www.mincor.com.au/site/PDF/e9adafb5-2cfb-40b7-824b-23e21aa09b57/MassivesulphidesintersectedatGoldenMile


----------



## sptrawler

Now that is a high grade nickel strike.  It isn't very often you see that grade (6.3% and 8.5%)😍.
Now to define the reserves. 
Also BHP's nickel west has signed a contract to supply Tesla, so Mincor nickel has a home to go to.  


			https://www.mincor.com.au/site/PDF/8ebdd506-4818-4f09-8c65-a3b7e7ce409e/AssaysconfirmhighgradenickelinterceptatGoldenMile


----------



## divs4ever

any mention of cobalt ?? 

 MCR has been able to stay in profit because of the occasional pockets of cobalt  in hard times


----------



## frugal.rock

Pooh, it's getting a bit excited!
Up 13% ... 😉


----------



## divs4ever

yes i am wondering if i should exit while ( finally ) in profit  i bought these for div. income  and the cupboard has been rather bare since 2015


----------



## sptrawler

frugal.rock said:


> Pooh, it's getting a bit excited!
> Up 13% ... 😉



The thing is Cassini was a known reserve, the punt on joining Long and Durkin, was an educated gamble IMO, but those mines in the immediate vicinity Otter/Juan etc have produced 50+ years of high quality nickel, it looks as though the gamble is going to pay off. Also the ducks are aligning with the BHP Kambalda mill/concentrator being right next door and the Tesla contract signed, just nails it IMO. Direct rail access Kambalda plant, Kalgoorlie smelter, new BHP high quality nickel plant at Kwinana refinery/ port facility, it doesn't get much better than that IMO.








						BHP to supply greener Australian nickel to Tesla
					

Global miner BHP Group (BHP.AX) said on Thursday it signed a nickel supply agreement with Tesla Inc (TSLA.O) and will work with the electric carmaker on lowering carbon emissions in the battery supply chain.




					www.reuters.com
				



From the article:
_"These are logical moves for Tesla at this point of time when there's not a lot of other opportunities."

Nickel West's carbon footprint is around half the size of even the newest producers in top supplier Indonesia, which use an energy-intensive technology to extract nickel from laterite ores, he said. Its waste disposal practices are also seen to be lower risk_.

Time will tell, but I think happy days are here again for Mincor. 

Just my personal opinion and I do hold, so I may well be biased. 🤣


----------



## divs4ever

i have learned a LOT from Woolworths over the decades ( i worked there circa 1972 )

 some times  a big ( high profile ) customer is a BAD thing ( ask the folks at Gage Breweries  , for example or HIL  )

 is BHP brave enough to put a Tweeting Musk in his place when need be

 now MCR  will probably 'piggy-in-the-middle' but survive  , but too many outside pressures on BHP might distract them greatly  , it is not hard for a business of many moving parts to come off the rails ( it needs to look 10 , 20 and 50 years ahead )

 i hold both BHP and MCR ( currently  that MIGHT change )


----------



## sptrawler

divs4ever said:


> i have learned a LOT from Woolworths over the decades ( i worked there circa 1972 )
> 
> some times  a big ( high profile ) customer is a BAD thing ( ask the folks at Gage Breweries  , for example or HIL  )
> 
> is BHP brave enough to put a Tweeting Musk in his place when need be
> 
> now MCR  will probably 'piggy-in-the-middle' but survive  , but too many outside pressures on BHP might distract them greatly  , it is not hard for a business of many moving parts to come off the rails ( it needs to look 10 , 20 and 50 years ahead )
> 
> i hold both BHP and MCR ( currently  that MIGHT change )



A lot depends on your belief in the BEV revolution IMO, I personally am a petrol head always have been, always will be.
However I'm also a sparky and a realist, the upside to BEV's is simplicity in manufacture and reliability in operation, the only stumbling block is the energy density of batteries.
As far as I know the main component atm that gives greatest energy density/dollar in batteries, is high quality nickel, that may change but battery technology is a very slow moving creature and has been for most of the last century.


----------



## divs4ever

well BEV should have been in use already there are certain areas  it is clearly superior for the user , HOWEVER ICE has it's strengths as well  and i really can't see  how you can make them obsolute without descending into logistics hell 

 rail can't do enough  , air, well lets see how the batteries last at 30,000 feet  , and of course buses ( inter-city ) main roaods can't keep the centre-line in good  condition  , not a chance with power cables ( for a Trolley Bus affair )

 they will try an 'all or nothing ' approach and lose credibilty  .. how is that NBN  going is everybody missing their cable yet ( i was from day 2 )

 the BEV's won't stay simple  it is just the way car manufacturers think  other-wise beach-buggies would be  a current top-seller


----------



## sptrawler

divs4ever said:


> well BEV should have been in use already there are certain areas  it is clearly superior for the user , HOWEVER ICE has it's strengths as well  and i really can't see  how you can make them obsolute without descending into logistics hell
> 
> rail can't do enough  , air, well lets see how the batteries last at 30,000 feet  , and of course buses ( inter-city ) main roaods can't keep the centre-line in good  condition  , not a chance with power cables ( for a Trolley Bus affair )
> 
> they will try an 'all or nothing ' approach and lose credibilty  .. how is that NBN  going is everybody missing their cable yet ( i was from day 2 )
> 
> the BEV's won't stay simple  it is just the way car manufacturers think  other-wise beach-buggies would be  a current top-seller



If investment was about logics alone, it would be easy.


----------



## divs4ever

i like to use logic when i invest sometimes it guides me well  .. like buying in CLV ( up 607% ) when the market loved babyfoods and sometimes leads me astray  ( when politicians fail to deliver on infrastructure pledges  ) , because  luck walks by my side i do well with something like a 30% success rate . and when in ten years  i have only made just one successful prediction ( on a stock ) you can see how kind luck has been to me .


----------



## sptrawler

More good drilling results, from the Long/Durkin mine, the samples are showing new ore reserves less than 100m from the existing decline.


			https://cdn-api.markitdigital.com/apiman-gateway/ASX/asx-research/1.0/file/2924-02402723-6A1044126?access_token=83ff96335c2d45a094df02a206a39ff4
		

I do hold.


----------



## divs4ever

BEST INTERSECTIONS RECEIVED TO DATE AT THE ‘GOLDEN MILE’ CONFIRM EMERGING HIGH-GRADE NICKEL TREND

Thicker high-grade intervals of up to 8.1m @ 4.2% Ni (including 3.7m @ 6.0% Ni) close to underground development Mincor Resources NL (ASX: MCR, “Mincor” or “the Company”) is pleased to report two significant new highgrade massive sulphide intersections (ULG-21-028 & ULG-21-30) in the 1.1km zone between its Long and Durkin North mines (Golden Mile) near Kambalda. The new intercepts, the thickest encountered to date, are 40m to the south and 27m to the north respectively from UGL-21-022 (0.6m at 4.6% Ni) announced on 2 August 2021. Mincor was once again able to facilitate rapid turnaround of assays on the new Golden Mile intersections, with a summary of the new results as follows: • ULG-21-030 – 8.1m @ 4.2% Ni, including 3.7m @ 6.0% Ni and 1.7m @ 4.5% Ni (all on contact) • ULG-21-028 – 2.6m @ 3.7% Ni, including 0.3m @ 8.2% Ni (on contact) These latest results are the best intersections received to date from this emerging position with the combination of substantially increased thickness and high grades. This emerging area down-dip from Stockpile Two is demonstrating great promise, given its proximity to existing underground infrastructure. Mincor’s Managing Director, David Southam, said: “Having achieved a total of five high-grade intercepts so far into this emerging position in our maiden drill program at the ‘Golden Mile’, we feel confident that we have well and truly confirmed the proof of concept that this 1.1km search space is extremely prospective for significant new discoveries. “The fact that these holes are located immediately adjacent to existing underground infrastructure is also a significant plus. We are also very encouraged by the fact that these latest intercepts have substantial thickness, particularly the intercept in ULG-21-30, which bodes well as drilling to date begins to reveal a consistent trend of high-grade mineralisation extending down-dip from Stockpile Two. “The program will soon move to Stockpile Three along the Golden Mile, which will give us the opportunity to complete a number of down-hole electro-magnetic surveys for the intersections received from Stockpile Two. We expect these in turn to give us a clear vector to return with further drilling to fully evaluate this exciting emerging position.

 DYOR

 i hold MCR  at no cash risk  ( recently rescued the investment cash )


----------



## sptrawler

More strikes for Mincor, this time out at Wannaway, now to define the reserve.


			https://cdn-api.markitdigital.com/apiman-gateway/ASX/asx-research/1.0/file/2924-02411710-6A1047068?access_token=83ff96335c2d45a094df02a206a39ff4
		


I do hold


----------



## divs4ever

but what about the mining and selling part  , they have done that before , so they should be progressing that without to many snags 

 have seen companies explore themselves in administration before 

 DYOR

i notice no new hits in cobalt here  , i remember one period where cobalt pockets were a major help to their profits


----------



## sptrawler

Value Collector said:


> I am not sure they will mind, they will be asleep, watching movies or playing video games as the cars drive themselves soon.






divs4ever said:


> but what about the mining and selling part  , they have done that before , so they should be progressing that without to many snags
> 
> have seen companies explore themselves in administration before
> 
> DYOR
> 
> i notice no new hits in cobalt here  , i remember one period where cobalt pockets were a major help to their profits



They already have started mining, they are contracted to sell the ore to BHP, check back through the announcements for when first delivery begins.
From memory it is at the end of the year.
DYOR, Im on the phone, so difficult to chase the info.


----------



## divs4ever

they have had an off-take agreement with Nickel West before  ,  back when S32 was spun-off  ( i remember watching closely trying to work out what BHP was going to do with 'orphan ' Nickel West 

 ( that would have been a game-changer for MCR back then  to lose a main customer )

June 2021 quarter highlights
• Conditions precedent for the $55 million Syndicated Facility Agreement (“SFA”) met: o First draw-down not required until early October 2021; and o Mandatory hedge program completed – 4,666 nickel tonnes of forward contracts at an average price of between A$21,000/t and A$22,000/t for the period September 2022 to February 2024
• Continued strong progress with decline and development metres:
o Woodall Decline at Cassini advanced 702 metres during the quarter; and
o Northern Operations (Durkin North and Long) development totalled 933 metres during the quarter
• Massive sulphides intersected at the ‘Golden Mile’ subsequent to quarter-end with an intercept of 0.5m @ 6.3% Ni (including 0.3m @ 8.5% Ni) in the second hole of the new underground drilling program, demonstrating proof-of-concept and opening up a significant opportunity in this untested 1.1km zone
• Sulphides intersected in regional exploration at Location 1, identifying a prospective new channel and demonstrating the potential fertility of this new targeted area
• Subsequent to quarter-end, off-take partner BHP Nickel West announced a landmark nickel supply arrangement with Tesla, highlighting the importance of ‘sustainable’ nickel to the global EV industry
• LTIFR of zero (no change), with two minor incidents for the quarter resulting in a TRIFR of 9.2
• Cash at bank of $58.9 million at quarter-end Commenting on the June 2021 quarter, Mincor’s Managing Director, David Southam, said: “Mincor took major steps during the 2021 financial year towards becoming Australia’s newest nickel sulphide producer, and we are now rapidly closing-in on that objective with first nickel concentrate scheduled for late in the March 2022 quarter.
 I’m pleased to say that the Mincor Team collectively delivered on all of our commitments to shareholders during the year, with key highlights including the Board-approved Final Investment Decision in September 2020, achieving financial close of our $55m project financing facility and formally opening the Woodall decline in March and making excellent – and, importantly, safe – progress with development and construction against the backdrop of COVID-19. “We have been successful in attracting significant mining talent to the Company with a systematic build-up of professional staff, particularly over the last six months.
 Despite the competitive industry environment, we continue to have a headcount turnover of zero over the last year. “Development of both the Woodall Decline at Cassini and the Durkin Decline and Incline at Northern Operations continued to accelerate with development rates increasing. In addition, project meetings with our off-take partner, BHP Nickel West, have been very positive as they complete necessary maintenance on the Kambalda Nickel Concentrator in readiness for our ore.
 Just a few days ago, BHP Nickel West unveiled a landmark nickel supply arrangement with Tesla, showing how important ‘sustainable’ nickel is to the future growth of the EV battery industry. “After awarding the underground drilling contract to Webdrill last quarter, we’ve made a fantastic start to our drilling campaign in the ‘Golden Mile’ between Long and Durkin North. Post quarter-end we announced an outstanding massive sulphide intercept assaying 6.3% nickel in only our second drill-hole, which was quickly followed up by another massive sulphide intersection. 
These exciting results demonstrate the enormous opportunity in front of us in this large search space, which has seen no effective drilling for decades. Our regional exploration is also gaining momentum, with a potentially large and fertile channel identified at Location-1 and RC drilling at Republican Hill also returning some encouraging early-stage results, both of which will be followed up in FY22 with their own discrete program.”
2 Nickel Market During the June quarter, the nickel price increased to around US$18,400/tonne, while the AUD/USD exchange rate traded in a range between 0.74 and 0.76. The AUD nickel price finished the quarter at A$24,541/tonne, which is well above the Definitive Feasibility Study assumption of A$22,500/tonne.
  === >> LME nickel stockpiles were significantly drawn down in the quarter, falling around 28,000 nickel tonnes to approximately 232,000 nickel tonnes, which represents around one month of global demand. <<===

 as i suspected they were still processing existing stockpiles in June 

watching for the next quarterly  might be enlightening  , but beware of a Cap. Raise if the exploration results keep on looking good


----------



## sptrawler

I bought in at 30cents, when they announced taking the Kambalda mines off care and maintenance and back into production.
I have enough of them, wont be topping up, unless at a great discount.
As an aside, did my apprenticeship at the Kambalda nickel plant, in the early 1970's when it was owned by WMC. So it is certainly a mature plant.lol


----------



## divs4ever

parts of it must have been well built  , as well , then ( and sure certain parts wear out regularly )

 i was buying MCR between June 2011  to July 2015  ( before they started moth-balling stuff )

 i want to see them actually digging new ore before i decide what to do next 

 ( i still have my profits running )


----------



## sptrawler

divs4ever said:


> parts of it must have been well built  , as well , then ( and sure certain parts wear out regularly )
> 
> i was buying MCR between June 2011  to July 2015  ( before they started moth-balling stuff )
> 
> i want to see them actually digging new ore before i decide what to do next
> 
> ( i still have my profits running )



2011-2015, that was when the price of nickel fell off a cliff, which was always the case when the demand for stainless steel falls. Which also coincides with fall in consumer spending, boom and bust, that's nickel.

From my understanding, the new Cassini mine is a whole new discovery, the other mine being worked ATM is the area between Durkin and Long Shaft, which they bought off IGO. They already owned Durkin, another mine in close proximity is Otter/Juan which I think MCR own as well. All except Cassini and Long, from memory, were all WMC mines originally.

The infrastructure is in place at Long and Durkin and from drilling results, it would appear there is a significant resource reserve in between the two declines. From memory Long Shaft decline is deeper than Durkin, so they are probably driving up from Long to Durkin.

The BHP nickel processing setup at Kambalda, was very high through put, when I was there it had primary, secondary and tertiary crushers, mill and floatation separation equipment as well as rotary dryers. It also had its own power station, but now it would be grid connected.  So I guess 50 years on it has been further improved. I do know the smelter in Kalgoorlie is being upgraded and also the refinery at Kwinana.
I'm pretty sure the Kambalda processor is being fed by ore from, Mt Keith, Leinster, Norseman(IGO), Forrestonia (WSA) and Kambalda(MCR), There is a rail connection.

Add to that there is a modern town to house the workforce, the requirement for FIFO is diminished, so really as long as Mincor has a resource reserve there isn't much risk involved IMO.
Other than EV's not taking off and the demand for nickel falling again, which is anyone's guess, but I'm personally bullish.
Will I have them in 10 years time? As I said nickel is a boom and bust commodity, IMO you have to accept that when buying in.
It is hard rock mining, with low yields and high overheads, if the price of nickel falls or you recovery rate falls, your profit falls very quickly.
Just my opinion and I do hold, so I could be ramping. 🤣


----------



## divs4ever

i have the investment cash rescued  ( now )in MCR  , mentally written off in PAN , and WSA is likely to be grabbed in a takeover ( by IGO or a different predator  , FMG MIGHT see this as an excellent side door into IGO and WSA might never have been the prize sought )

 and will most likely hold the rest of MCR hoping there is a demand-driven  resources boom in the next 3 years 

 BTW MCR was playing at gold miner  on one lease as well  , MAYBE that will be a lifeline in tougher times 

 cheers


----------



## sptrawler

divs4ever said:


> i have the investment cash rescued  ( now )in MCR  , mentally written off in PAN , and WSA is likely to be grabbed in a takeover ( by IGO or a different predator  , FMG MIGHT see this as an excellent side door into IGO and WSA might never have been the prize sought )
> 
> and will most likely hold the rest of MCR hoping there is a demand-driven  resources boom in the next 3 years
> 
> BTW MCR was playing at gold miner  on one lease as well  , MAYBE that will be a lifeline in tougher times
> 
> cheers



Yes nickel is a tough gig IMO, it definitely isn't a buy and hold forever sort of material in my opinion, even this run is only as good as the BEV run.
Definitely do your own research, especially on the gold lifeline.


----------



## divs4ever

from memory  the gold was only thought to be a gap-filler for the cash-flow ( that is why is used the word 'play ' )  , while the nickel mines went into full production  ( and they would have had some useful plant and staff  already on the books  , so POSSIBLY lower capex needed at the start )

 given the unprocessed stock-piles of nickel already existing and the hedging contracts signed  they have at least some income  so far 

 am thinking the nickel with still have use while folks are creating solar farms  ,

 but will this be a golden goose   , i don't think so ( and that is why i grabbed the investment cash out  )

 profits running  , i can live with that  , but the investment cash , i might find a better place elsewhere ( in the future ) 

 NORMALLY mining cycles run out-of-sync to other market cycles and am hoping that will bump up my income when other sectors struggle


----------



## sptrawler

divs4ever said:


> from memory  the gold was only thought to be a gap-filler for the cash-flow ( that is why is used the word 'play ' )  , while the nickel mines went into full production  ( and they would have had some useful plant and staff  already on the books  , so POSSIBLY lower capex needed at the start )
> 
> given the unprocessed stock-piles of nickel already existing and the hedging contracts signed  they have at least some income  so far
> 
> am thinking the nickel with still have use while folks are creating solar farms  ,
> 
> but will this be a golden goose   , i don't think so ( and that is why i grabbed the investment cash out  )
> 
> profits running  , i can live with that  , but the investment cash , i might find a better place elsewhere ( in the future )
> 
> NORMALLY mining cycles run out-of-sync to other market cycles and am hoping that will bump up my income when other sectors struggle











						Mincor to sell Widgiemooltha gold mine
					

The miner will shutter and sell the gold project as it continues to pivot back to nickel mining at Kambalda.




					thewest.com.au
				




I hope you are wrong, I'm hoping for $3, time will tell.
But that is the investment game, for every seller there is a buyer, for every winner, there is a loser.
I've been on the loosing side, as many times as the winning side, so I'm still treading water.


----------



## divs4ever

from June 2021 quarterly

Gold Assets Gold Strategy Mincor continues to receive expressions of interest from third parties for the gold rights on the Company’s Widgiemooltha Dome tenements and is aiming to have a position finalised during the September quarter with one of those parties.

Gold Drilling Two high-priority drill targets were tested by small RC drilling program during the quarter. Both structural targets are associated with soil geochemical anomalism located to the north, and west, of the Long mine. Only one of the targets could be tested during the quarter. Results were returned for the 30 RC drill holes that did not require causeways. Significant gold was intersected in 12 of the holes, with the best result being 5m @ 2.4g/t Au. These results will be reviewed during the September quarter with the Company’s consultant, Dr Jon Hronsky. The second target will be tested once logistics are in place to access this area with a causeway.

 one might note the drill results here differ wildly from the West Australian article

 one might note that there has been no  recent official announcement that i can find  on the fate of the gold find ( i couldn't spot it in the Diggers and Dealers presentation )



 all very interesting


----------



## divs4ever

from the March 2021 quarterly 

Gold Assets Gold Strategy A significant amount of tenure within Mincor’s Northern Operations area is on freehold title (not subject to any gold royalty) and is located on the highly gold endowed Boulder-Lefroy Fault, which hosts St Ives (Goldfields) to the south and the Jubilee Operations, owned by Northern Star Resources Limited, to the north. A systematic review of the gold potential of this area was completed by Dr John Hronsky following an airborne geophysical survey. Two high-priority faults have been identified – one of which could be the continuation of the Playa Fault, which is a major structure associated with gold deposits to the south of the Kambalda Dome. Both faults are associated with gold soil geochemical anomalism to the north and west of the Long mine and have since been selected for initial RC drill testing to be completed in the June 2021 quarter. In the meantime, Mincor continues to receive expressions of interest from third parties for the gold rights on the Company’s Widgiemooltha Dome tenements.

DYOR

 let's see who throws an offer into the ring  ( it might be nobody )


----------



## frugal.rock

Announcement.

"The trading halt is requested in connection with a proposed capital raising to be conducted by the Company."

@sptrawler I wondered why the SP had a good push along last week... Tada! CR!

Perhaps MIN wants IN after dumping their entire PLS holding over the weekend...?


----------



## sptrawler

frugal.rock said:


> Announcement.
> 
> "The trading halt is requested in connection with a proposed capital raising to be conducted by the Company."
> 
> @sptrawler I wondered why the SP had a good push along last week... Tada! CR!
> 
> Perhaps MIN wants IN after dumping their entire PLS holding over the weekend...?



Spot on FG, doing a raising at $1.28.


			https://cdn-api.markitdigital.com/apiman-gateway/ASX/asx-research/1.0/file/2924-02418527-6A1049197?access_token=83ff96335c2d45a094df02a206a39ff4


----------



## sptrawler

It is starting to look like there is another resource body close to the new Cassini mine, if another mine is to start, the SPQ will come in very handy, all MCR needs now is the price of nickel to hold up.
https://cdn-api.markitdigital.com/a...access_token=83ff96335c2d45a094df02a206a39ff4

I do hold.


----------



## frugal.rock

sptrawler said:


> I do hold.



So do I as of 5 minutes ago.
I thought it was a bargain at $1.305
Oversold on market spasm in my opinion.


----------



## Miner

Looks like I have been abstaining from this thread or not receiving the postings for electronic reasons 
Any way the issue price and market prices are so close and opportunistic announcement immediately after CR gives me a feeling that opportunities are there to own it at a lesser prices than CR price. It is a speculation and no science behind it.
https://cdn-api.markitdigital.com/a...access_token=83ff96335c2d45a094df02a206a39ff4
This announcement is a bit shoddy to me with date of announcement and CR publish date/.



			https://cdn-api.markitdigital.com/apiman-gateway/ASX/asx-research/1.0/file/2924-02422603-6A1050765?access_token=83ff96335c2d45a094df02a206a39ff4


----------



## sptrawler

Ann's post from 2019, has some good info, so reposted.


Ann said:


> *Mincor Resources secures nickel offtake agreement with BHP Nickel West as restart plans gain momentum*
> 
> _As it advances restart preparations Mincor Resources (ASX: MCR) has secured an offtake term sheet with BHP’s (ASX: BHP) subsidiary BHP Billiton Nickel West Pty Ltd, which will underpin a binding agreement between the parties._
> 
> 
> _The latest agreement replaces a previous 20-year contract between Mincor and BHP Nickel West, which expired earlier this year._
> 
> 
> _Under the new deal, Mincor has the right to transport up to 600,000 tonnes per annum of nickel sulphide ore to BHP Nickel West’s Kambalda facilities in Western Australia for processing._
> 
> 
> _The contract takes effect from the date Mincor delivers its first ore and expires either on the fifth anniversary of that date or 31 December 2025 – whichever comes first. More..
> 
> View attachment 93098
> _



I do hold.


----------



## Ann

Given that PAN looks like it may suffer a fall shortly, let's look at what MCR is doing with a quick chart. Small overhead falling trendline but the biggest concern is the Twiggs Money Flow. It is really falling away, not a good look. In fact, I would be guessing that the nickel stocks may all be looking a bit limp at the moment. Dunno, haven't looked.


----------



## divs4ever

considering the narrative pushing more EVs to be manufactured in the future  , plus hints of war  on a significant scale  , i find  the weak share prices in some ( PAN and WSA to name two ) a little puzzling 

 is the 'green narrative' a ploy to talk down oil prices , and not a genuine push to reduce pollution  ( leaving us with concerns  on war plans to consider when making investing decisions )


----------



## Sean K

Ann said:


> Given that PAN looks like it may suffer a fall shortly, let's look at what MCR is doing with a quick chart. Small overhead falling trendline but the biggest concern is the Twiggs Money Flow. It is really falling away, not a good look. In fact, I would be guessing that the nickel stocks may all be looking a bit limp at the moment. Dunno, haven't looked.
> 
> View attachment 133799




Anything above $1.15 looks like a buy point on that chart. All else being equal.


----------



## Ann

Sean K said:


> Anything above $1.15 looks like a buy point on that chart. All else being equal.




I am wondering how much of nickel's recent rise has been due to the perception of high demand for batteries. It appears nickel and cobalt may not have a very large part to play with batteries going forward. How soon the new technologies can be established may have a lasting effect on those metals prices, particularly when the new materials are a tiny fraction of the cost of these current metals, just a thought.

"New Lithium Battery Design Eliminates Costly Cobalt and Nickel"



			StackPath


----------



## divs4ever

i am told  the nickel is important in high voltage wiring  ,  so maybe the battery  is not the major deployment ( also there MIGHT be a move to corrosion-resistant  steel , which might impact zinc demand )

 now in the  1960's/1970's  nickel prices rocketed on war concerns ( but does that apply today )

 also often neglected was Indonesia's move to export  pig-nickel stock  to value add  with iron and nickel   sales


----------



## Sean K

Ann said:


> I am wondering how much of nickel's recent rise has been due to the perception of high demand for batteries. It appears nickel and cobalt may not have a very large part to play with batteries going forward. How soon the new technologies can be established may have a lasting effect on those metals prices, particularly when the new materials are a tiny fraction of the cost of these current metals, just a thought.
> 
> "New Lithium Battery Design Eliminates Costly Cobalt and Nickel"
> 
> 
> 
> StackPath




Yeah, I posed that question somewhere else in regard to Tesla switching to LFP batteries. I am a bit concerned that demand for Co and Ni may be effected. There are still other reports saying there will still be a supply issue, but doesn't tackle the planned switch by Tesla directly.


----------



## divs4ever

i was looking at battery tech  , more as static energy storage ( off-grid households  ,  business-power back-ups  , etc etc )

 i see a move in EV storage  to electrolytes  in flexible sachets  that might be a pivotal direction , there was also the 'spray-on' battery tech  ( even though it appears to be more of a capacitor storage type , and one might ask  how long can that tech store the charge )

 i think the EV tech is not settled yet


----------



## Miner

divs4ever said:


> i am told  the nickel is important in high voltage wiring  ,  so maybe the battery  is not the major deployment ( also there MIGHT be a move to corrosion-resistant  steel , which might impact zinc demand )
> 
> now in the  1960's/1970's  nickel prices rocketed on war concerns ( but does that apply today )
> 
> also often neglected was Indonesia's move to export  pig-nickel stock  to value add  with iron and nickel   sales



I have seen only copper and aluminium being used for all HV


----------



## divs4ever

well i have a 'copper collection'  and i sometimes  recover  some metal that is silverish in colour  but does not seem to be copper nor aluminum but  often used in wiring ( as opposed to mechanical cables )

Jim Rogers: Next bear market will be 'the worst in my lifetime' — here are three keys to survive​








						Jim Rogers: Next bear market will be 'the worst in my lifetime' — here are three keys to survive it
					

The multimillionaire investor knows a thing or two about making money in turbulent




					financialpost.com
				




 now i am making assumptions based on appearance and  lack of corrosion ( or rust ) and hardness  , but a nickel alloy  fits in with the possibilities ( palladium, platinum , and a few others ) would be too expensive for the application 

  PS the aluminum alloys recovered are not discarded either 

 cheers


----------



## Austwide

_Zinc Bromide aka ZnBr2_​_Gelion’s breakthrough non-flow zinc-bromide battery
targets the growing stationary energy storage market.

The battery delivers a safe, cost-effective, long-life
alternative to lithium-ion and lead acid battery
technologies. It can be discharged daily to 0% and works
in temperatures of up to 50°C._

Gelion’s new battery doesn't seem to need nickel but not suitable for cars.


----------



## divs4ever

Austwide said:


> _Zinc Bromide aka ZnBr2_​_Gelion’s breakthrough non-flow zinc-bromide battery
> targets the growing stationary energy storage market.
> 
> The battery delivers a safe, cost-effective, long-life
> alternative to lithium-ion and lead acid battery
> technologies. It can be discharged daily to 0% and works
> in temperatures of up to 50°C._
> 
> Gelion’s new battery doesn't seem to need nickel but not suitable for cars.



 yes at a quick glance  i would wonder  how the battery would  go in a fiery vehicle crash  ,   but stationary and some sort of heat/cold protection ( far from impossible  in say computer server rooms , which have emergency power back-ups   )

 wider acceptance might need  a better temperature tolerance ( say homes  with sizzling temperatures or periods of snow )

 but could easily take some pressure off lithium demand ( which i think is a good thing )


----------



## Dona Ferentes

The stock is trading at $1.20 for a market cap of $581m ahead of a de-risking event this month – the confirmation of first ore being produced from the restart of its Durkin North and Long North mines at Kambalda.

First ore from the Northern operations, as the pair are bracketed, is set to be followed by first ore from the new Cassini deposit early in the new year.

The ore from the operations will get sent off to BHP’s Kambalda concentrator for processing, putting Mincor on track to achieve first concentrate sales in the June quarter next year on its way to becoming a 16,000 tonne-a-year nickel (in concentrates) producer.

As progress in the ramp-up of production is a risk around any project, the expected confirmation in coming days of first ore from the Northern operations will stand as a key de-risking event for the stock.

Macquarie has a $1.40 price target on the stock, saying that apart from the upside from its nickel price assumptions being below spot prices, exploration drilling success across Mincor’s Kambalda portfolio continues to provide further upside potential to its base case assumptions.

_- *Garampeiro* on Stockhead_


----------



## Miner

divs4ever said:


> well i have a 'copper collection'  and i sometimes  recover  some metal that is silverish in colour  but does not seem to be copper nor aluminum but  often used in wiring ( as opposed to mechanical cables )
> 
> Jim Rogers: Next bear market will be 'the worst in my lifetime' — here are three keys to survive​
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> Jim Rogers: Next bear market will be 'the worst in my lifetime' — here are three keys to survive it
> 
> 
> The multimillionaire investor knows a thing or two about making money in turbulent
> 
> 
> 
> 
> financialpost.com
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> now i am making assumptions based on appearance and  lack of corrosion ( or rust ) and hardness  , but a nickel alloy  fits in with the possibilities ( palladium, platinum , and a few others ) would be too expensive for the application
> 
> PS the aluminum alloys recovered are not discarded either
> 
> cheers



this is not MCR-related but more on Jim Rogers's predictions.
Jim Rogers and Gowdie
I have honestly lost faith. They have been crying wolf coming for a few years knowing the cycle one day will prove them right.
Jim Rogers, a strong Trump Supporter. There is nothing wrong to support a politician but what he uttered against Biden during the election phase, is highly disrespectful and finally, Jim was wrong. 
Personally, I have no respect for both the guys even if got a few books on my shelf written by Van Goowdie and Jim Rogers.
It is probably distinctly written on the wall that market crash is coming but once again Jim and Van have been saying for a few years without giving a time frame - just visit Youtube interviews (ironically always taken by very young female journalists (sponsored advert?)) and verbose marketing from Porter Publishing and Fat tail Media.


----------



## divs4ever

i have been waiting  ( and adding  my idea of 'safe-havens ' ) for the genuine  crash since mid 2013

 and am a believer in the Austrian School of Economics  ,  so have been disappointed for a long time  , but i can see MMT being applied badly  ( i can see how it MIGHT work , but folks are just spending money anywhere ) so haven't given up on a confidence-shattering crash  some time in the future  ( but will it happen in MY lifetime ? )

 but the weakness in the currency buying power ( the classic meaning of inflation ) is still a potentially good thing for commodities  ( unless the state institutes  slave labour  to mine the resources )

 i guess time will tell on my nickel miners ( MCR , PAN and WSA ) but the future could look much better than currently 

 a WSA take-over would probably crystallize a loss for me 


 by my estimates the mining sector ( except maybe gold ) should be in a consolidation phase  but some commodities LOOK like they are in a super-cycle 

please be very careful


----------



## sptrawler

The lithium iron polymer batteries have been coming for quite some time and no doubt will be popular in developing lower cost, lower performance cars.
That is no different than what happens at the moment, the end result will still be driven by demand, as it is in the ICE market.
Not everyone drives a $14,000 Mitsubishi Mirage, or a $45,000 MG ZSE.
Tesla is gong to make two levels of their vehicle, a standard range, standard performance one and a long range high performance one.
If it turns out that everyone is happy with 250_300klm range, nickel will again be a boom and bust commodity, however the last nickel boom around 2010 wasnt driven by EV's.
So maybe the price rise is actually driven by a demand, that doesnt only revolve around EVs?
I personally see the improvement in LiFe polymer batteries being more of a threat to flow batteries, I know someone is is currently going of grid and has decided on LiFe over flow, due to the cost difference.


----------



## divs4ever

well many households don't drive ( at least one vehicle ) more than 300 kms a week ( most weeks a year )

 a confounding factor will be 'work from home '  will that stay for some  or will the previous routines return  , if the bread-winner isn't sitting in traffic for an hour  a day  distance traveled per vehicle might drop on average 

 ( and for those long trips maybe hiring a vehicle will be cheaper  for those trips )


----------



## Sean K

sptrawler said:


> the last nickel boom around 2010 wasnt driven by EV's.
> So maybe the price rise is actually driven by a demand, that doesnt only revolve around EVs?



Any idea what that boom was about? Supply / demand I'm sure but just a cyclical thing where there had been limited exploration/discovery and new mines didn't come on to keep up? With BHP and Twiggy fighting over a Ni mine I guess there's something longer term in Ni being an important commodity. I think the US put it on a critical minerals list this year also.


----------



## sptrawler

Sean K said:


> Any idea what that boom was about? Supply / demand I'm sure but just a cyclical thing where there had been limited exploration/discovery and new mines didn't come on to keep up? With BHP and Twiggy fighting over a Ni mine I guess there's something longer term in Ni being an important commodity. I think the US put it on a critical minerals list this year also.



It is a ciclical think, the last boom was from the Chinese building all those ghost cities, there was a large increase in the call for stainless steel, there are a couple of ways of getting nickel, one is pig nickel which is what Indonesia produces, or nickel sulphate which is the major one in Aus.
With the demand for EVs increasing, most think there will be a greater demand for high purity nickel, which is the sulphate we produce.
The blade technology Lithium iron batteries are becoming popular, the only downside they have is energy density, so as happens now will probably continue if someone wants a Kingswood it will be LiFe battery if they chose the Caprice it will be Li ion battery.
With the current World stimulus and lockdown savings slushing around, the building industries will be putting more demand on stainless steel I would think , so it will be interesting to see which way the batteries go, my guess there will be demand for both chemistries.


----------



## divs4ever

FIRST DEVELOPMENT ORE INTERSECTED EARLY AT NORTHERN OPERATIONS
Historic milestone marks a key step towards nickel production with first ore encountered at
Durkin North ~36m before the target, potentially representing a new ore surface
• First nickel ore extracted from two development headings at the Northern Operations at Kambalda, to be
stockpiled prior to processing at the Kambalda Nickel Concentrator next year
• Historic day for Mincor marks another key achievement in the Company’s nickel restart plans
• High-grade development ore encountered in development heading approximately 36m before the target
zone on the 485 level at Durkin North, potentially representing a new high-grade ore surface located
outside the current mine plan
• Excellent nickel grades, with the development face estimated to average 3.8% Ni, which includes highgrade massive sulphides of up to 11.5% Ni
• Highlights the opportunity for additional nickel tonnes in these new, unmined areas at Kambalda
• First ore also intersected ahead of schedule in a second development heading in the target zone (510 level)
Mincor Resources NL (ASX: MCR, “Mincor” or the “Company”) is pleased to advise that it has achieved a major
milestone as it closes-in on the restart of nickel production in Kambalda, with development ore intersected
ahead of schedule in two development headings at the Northern Operations (Durkin North).
First development ore and potential new ore surface (485 level)
Significantly, high-grade development ore was intersected in the development heading on the 485 level at
Durkin North approximately 36 metres ahead of the modelled first ore contact, with face sampling confirming
high-grade massive sulphides (face sampling returned grades of up to 11.5% Ni).

Figure 1: Side Wall – 485 Access Drive Figure 2: Ore sample – 485 Access Drive
2
Development will continue through this newly identified zone and advance towards the targeted ore contact,
the D1 ore surface, which is scheduled to be intersected later this month.
Mincor believes that this potential new ore surface is related to the historical 1252 Embayment – a sparsely
drilled structure with known extensions through to the Otter Juan orebody, which historically hosted the
significant “52 Orebody”. Previous drilling of the 1252 structure was focussed on the flatter portions of the
embayment, and it was not drill tested over the entire projected extent.
Historic diamond drilling has been sub-parallel to where this new ore zone is now projected, meaning that this
new zone may be open to the west, east and down-plunge.
The Otter Juan mine is Kambalda’s oldest mine and by far its largest single producer, with operations dating back
to 1970.
Mincor is currently reviewing this latest information to assess the opportunity for follow-up drilling to test the
extent and continuity of this potential new ore surface.
Importantly, this high grade mineralisation is located outside the current mine plan and highlights the
opportunity to identify additional nickel in previously unmined areas at Kambalda.
Second development heading (510 level)
The operations team has also confirmed first development ore ahead of schedule in the target zone at the 510
level access at Durkin North. At the time of the publishing this announcement only small samples had been
analysed (which confirmed massive and matrix nickel sulphides) with a limited amount of ore extracted on the
first contact. Visual mapping and analysis is ongoing.
Outside of today’s announcement, extraction of development ore from Durkin North will now form part of
routine quarterly reports, with the December 2021 report due in late January 2022.
Management Comment
Mincor’s Managing Director, David Southam, said: “Mining the first development ore at our Northern Operations
is a fantastic milestone for Mincor and all of our stakeholders, and marks another key historic step in our journey
towards the resumption of nickel production in the first half of next year.
“Even more encouraging is the fact that our Kambalda operations continue to present opportunities for
potentially exciting new discoveries – as evidenced by an interpreted new high-grade ore surface in the 485 level
access within the Durkin North orebody, which has never been mined previously.
“Almost within 24 hours of that exciting development, our Operations Team has also intersected development
ore ahead of schedule at the 510 access level of Durkin North, exactly within the targeted ore zone.
“These are great early achievements for our team as we close-in on first nickel concentrate production in the
June 2022 quarter. With the nickel price currently well above the assumed price in the DFS and the outlook for
the entire nickel sector remaining extremely strong over the next few years, this is a fantastic time for us to be
resuming production in one of the world’s greatest nickel provinces.

courtesy of Bell Direct
==========================================================================================

DYOR

i hold MCR ('free-carried' )


----------



## sptrawler

My pick in the 2022 comp, on track to begin supplying BHP with nickel supply, as long as demand and price holds up, MCR should see major gains IMO.


----------



## frugal.rock

__





						MCR - Mincor Resources
					

Making good higher highs and higher lows. Buying for a longer term hold.




					www.aussiestockforums.com
				






sptrawler said:


> My pick in the 2022 comp, on track to begin supplying BHP with nickel supply, as long as demand and price holds up, MCR should see major gains IMO.



Mate, this is the fake thread.
Don't know how you missed that...💤


----------



## frugal.rock

@Joe Blow 
"Mop and bucket to isle 5, that's mop and bucket. Isle 5"...


----------



## Joe Blow

frugal.rock said:


> @Joe Blow
> "Mop and bucket to isle 5, that's mop and bucket. Isle 5"...




Ah, crap! Not again.


----------



## sptrawler

frugal.rock said:


> @Joe Blow
> "Mop and bucket to isle 5, that's mop and bucket. Isle 5"...



Come on guys, dont pick on the cripple, Im on meds and using a very small phone to input this rubbish, I mean intelligent musings.lol


----------



## divs4ever

crikey  , i can't even see my phone well enough to  login in  ( but that might be my meds too )


----------



## sptrawler

MCR on a run atm, something must be in the air.


----------



## peter2

sptrawler said:


> MCR on a run atm, something must be in the air.




Agreed. Price has exploded out of the corrective pattern (abc).


----------



## Dona Ferentes

sptrawler said:


> MCR on a run, something must be in the air.



Funny how these things get away.


----------



## sptrawler

Dona Ferentes said:


> Funny how these things get away.
> View attachment 134879



Yes it is, the good thing is, I'm strapped in the saddle. 👍

Knowing my luck, it will falter on the home straight.


----------



## divs4ever

MINCOR DELIVERS FIRST NICKEL ORE TO BHP NICKEL WEST

 Mincor Resources NL (ASX: MCR, “Mincor” or the “Company”) is pleased to advise that it has achieved another key milestone towards the resumption of nickel production from its Kambalda Nickel Operations in Western Australia, with the Company’s maiden parcel of high-grade nickel ore departing its Northern Operations for BHP Nickel West’s Kambalda Nickel Concentrator (“KNC”).
 This is the first time ore has been trucked from a Mincor mine to the KNC in over six years, and signals the start of the stockpile build ahead of the commissioning of the Concentrator in the June 2022 quarter.
Mincor is also pleased to advise that the contract for ore haulage from Mincor’s operations to the KNC has now commenced with MLG OZ Limited (“MLG”; ASX: MLG). MLG will be responsible for carting nickel ore from both of Mincor’s operations to the KNC.
The commencement of ore haulage operations comes as work towards the restart of the Kambalda Nickel Operations enters an exciting new phase, with multiple ore drives now online at the Northern Operations and development nearing the top of the orebody at Cassini, with first ore expected in the current quarter.
 First delivery of high-grade nickel ore from Mincor’s Northern Operations, destined for BHP Nickel West’s Kambalda Nickel Concentrator Mincor’s Managing Director, David Southam, said: “This is another fantastic achievement for our team as we close-in on first nickel concentrate production, which remains on track to be achieved next quarter.
 It’s a significant moment for everyone involved with Mincor to see high-grade nickel ore being hauled from one of our mines to the Kambalda Nickel Concentrator. With the current nickel price substantially above the assumed price used in our DFS, we are incredibly excited to be on the cusp of production once again in Kambalda.” - ENDS –

 DYOR

 i hold MCR ( 'free-carried ' )


----------



## sptrawler

That is good news @divs4ever , I see nickel cracked $11US, yesterday.
Looking good for MCR
IDH.


----------



## sptrawler

Half yearly report and the other good news, looks like they will crack $2 today.



			https://cdn-api.markitdigital.com/apiman-gateway/ASX/asx-research/1.0/file/2924-02492635-6A1079122?access_token=83ff96335c2d45a094df02a206a39ff4


----------



## Tyre Kicker

Anyone have an opinion on a reasonable price target with this one? Is it getting full at $2??


----------



## sptrawler

Mincor looking like it may be starting another leg up.







I do hold


----------



## Tyre Kicker

Wow,

I log in to have a little look see and up nearly 10% today!!!


----------



## frugal.rock

Tyre Kicker said:


> Anyone have an opinion on a reasonable price target with this one? Is it getting full at $2??



As a short term trader, I would be out today off the back off the nickel price gap up surge.
And then back in again tomorrow or day after or when this splurge of excitement settles.
(take some profit or compound it in again.)
No guarantee the excitement settles though, we're in some strange days here...


----------



## charlsie

Tyre Kicker said:


> Anyone have an opinion on a reasonable price target with this one? Is it getting full at $2??



apparently its not full just yet, i was very bullish for it to hit $2.00, but now it's gone past, i might start buying the dips


----------



## sptrawler

Tyre Kicker said:


> Anyone have an opinion on a reasonable price target with this one? Is it getting full at $2??



How long is a piece of string? How high will the price of nickel go? Will the demand for nickel increase, or decrease? What will Mincor's recovery costs be /lb? What is the cost to have BHP process the ore?

You answer those questions and I will tell you which way I think the price will go.


----------



## sptrawler

Despite the massive run up, in nickel price MCR tanked today, all I can see in the announcement is a presentation. There was one component that was badly presented IMO, I've posted it here and marked it with a red cross. I wonder if that spooked the herd?
It will be interesting to see what happens tomorrow, maybe I'm missing something?








Because if you look a few slides further on, in small print this is said.


----------



## divs4ever

given several other mining stocks i hold ALSO took a hit today  , i am suggesting a rising Australian Dollar  ( taking some gloss off all those juicy price rises )


----------



## Sean K

sptrawler said:


> Despite the massive run up, in nickel price MCR tanked today, all I can see in the announcement is a presentation. There was one component that was badly presented IMO, I've posted it here and marked it with a red cross. I wonder if that spooked the herd?
> It will be interesting to see what happens tomorrow, maybe I'm missing something?
> 
> 
> 
> View attachment 138779
> 
> 
> Because if you look a few slides further on, in small print this is said.
> 
> 
> View attachment 138780




I think Mr Market has decided the nickel price has run a bit hard and they are taking some profits. Same across a number of commods and stocks. Interesting phenomenon that stock prices can regularly lead the commodity they extract...


----------



## divs4ever

i would have blamed  higher fuel prices  but most  miners  hedge , those costs  are likely to be a problem a little bit further down the track


----------



## sptrawler

If the current price of US $20/lb holds up, there will be some very happy nickel producers. 


IDH


----------



## sptrawler

IDH


----------



## sptrawler

First ore out of Cassini, things should ramp up from here, hopefully the nickel price stays buoyant








IDH


----------



## divs4ever

sptrawler said:


> hopefully the nickel price stays buoyant



it should ,  if the push for EVs remains intact


----------



## sptrawler

Is this the start another run up? Or another disappointment.


----------



## sptrawler

Latest reports are out.
Cashflow


			https://cdn-api.markitdigital.com/apiman-gateway/ASX/asx-research/1.0/file/2924-02512514-6A1087671?access_token=83ff96335c2d45a094df02a206a39ff4
		


Activities


			https://cdn-api.markitdigital.com/apiman-gateway/ASX/asx-research/1.0/file/2924-02512513-6A1087670?access_token=83ff96335c2d45a094df02a206a39ff4


----------



## sptrawler

Sounds like first ore to be processed in June, so I would guess continuous recovery must have commenced and it's full steam ahead. 🥳 
The timing couldn't have been better, in regard to nickel price, nailed it.  

IDH


----------



## divs4ever

FIRST PAYMENT FOR NICKEL CONCENTRATE RECEIVED AS MINCOR DELIVERS
PRODUCTION RESTART ON TIME AND BELOW PEAK FUNDING GUIDANCE
Receipt of first cash-flow results in another milestone delivered by Mincor
• Mincor receives net proceeds of A$25.3 million from BHP Nickel West, representing 90% of the payment
for nickel concentrate calculated for ore deliveries up to 31 May 2022. Final 10% payment due in August.
• The net proceeds figure is derived from 1,003 tonnes of nickel in concentrate and includes deductions for
processing charges and freight rates consistent with the OTCPA with BHP Nickel West.
• Mincor has successfully delivered the project for an actual peak funding outlay of A$98 million, ~8% below
the previous estimate of A$107 million (see ASX announcement 7 September 2021). Peak funding
represents capital expenditure and working capital costs prior to first sales.
• This outcome represents an outstanding result for Mincor, with the successful delivery of two mining
operations developed entirely during the COVID-19 pandemic period.
• Major capital works now predominantly complete, with the new Cassini Village the final outstanding
project scheduled for completion early in the December 2022 quarter, and slightly lower than budget.
Mincor Resources NL (ASX: MCR, “Mincor” or the “Company”) is pleased to advise that it has received payment
for the Company’s first parcel of nickel ore to be processed through BHP’s Kambalda Nickel Concentrator.
The payment of A$25.3 million represents sales receipts for 90% of the imputed nickel concentrate production
up to 31 May 2022 (less processing and freight charges) with the balance to be paid in August, under the terms
of the enhanced Ore Tolling and Concentrate Purchase Agreement (OTCPA – see ASX announcement, 29 April
2022) with BHP Nickel West.
Sales for the month of May have been derived from the steady build-up of development ore stockpiles over a
number of months. Mincor continues to be laser focused on its ramp-up activities at both mining centres, with
a key operational milestone achieved last week with the first stope opened up at the Northern Operations.
Importantly, with the receipt of this first tranche of sales revenue, Mincor has delivered the restart of its
Kambalda Nickel Operations for an actual peak funding outlay of A$98 million, being ~8% below the previously
disclosed figure of A$107 million.
This is an outstanding achievement given that project development has been executed while Mincor has been
dealing with the challenges of the global COVID-19 pandemic and its flow-on impacts which have been widely
reported.
Major capital works are now predominantly complete, with the Cassini accommodation village expected to be
completed early in the December 2022 quarter. At this stage, the total cost of the Village is estimated to be
marginally lower than the A$15 million guidance (see ASX announcement 7 September 2021) with all long-lead
and major items under firm order with deposits paid.
At the same time, the Company is looking forward to delivering an Initial Mineral Resource for the newly
identified LN04a surface at the Golden Mile (Northern Operations) in July, underpinned by the first stage of
results delivered so far ahead of what is expected to be a significant ongoing drilling program for FY23.
2
Management Comment
Mincor’s Managing Director, David Southam, said: “Receipt of first nickel sales is yet another outstanding
achievement for the Company as we complete our return to the global ranks of nickel producers.
“We are also particularly pleased that we have achieved this milestone, including the development of two
underground mines, below our peak funding estimate. This is a tremendous result in one of the most challenging
operational environments in recent memory, and is testament to the dedication and efforts of our people and
our contracting and operating partners, such as BHP – all of whom have been aligned to the successful
resumption of high-quality nickel production in Western Australia.
“We are continuing to invest strongly in exploration, with the first tangible payback from our drilling success at
the Golden Mile due to be delivered in July with an initial Mineral Resource for the LN04a. The program for further
drilling and extensional work will continue in FY23 with a focus on the Golden Mile and drilling from favourable
underground positions at Cassini to target extensions of the Cassini Main orebody and the adjacent Cassini North
channel.”
Approved by:
Board of Mincor Resources NL


===========================================================================

( DYOR )

i hold MCR ( 'free-carried ' )


----------



## frugal.rock

Mop and bucket, aisle 5.
Again. 
@Sean K
🤪


----------



## sptrawler

At last some money coming in.

IDH


----------



## divs4ever

that search engine  sure doesn't like me


----------



## frugal.rock

divs4ever said:


> that search engine  sure doesn't like me



The search engine doesn't discriminate.

If the original poster or thread starter of a particular thread has "one" on ignore, "one" generally won't see that whole thread when logged in. 🌻


----------



## Austwide

@Joe Blow 
We seem to have 2 MCR threads


----------



## Joe Blow

Austwide said:


> @Joe Blow
> We seem to have 2 MCR threads




Not any more.


----------



## Joe Blow

divs4ever said:


> that search engine  sure doesn't like me




Try checking the "Search titles only" box and search for the ASX code. That should help.


----------



## sptrawler

My apologies @divs4ever I didn't see your earlier post. Maybe mine can be removed.
It looks as though Mincor are clearing $25,000/tonne from BHP, that is pretty good.
Their share price has certainly been hammered in this downturn, if I didn't have so many I would probably top up.


----------



## divs4ever

Joe Blow said:


> Try checking the "Search titles only" box and search for the ASX code. That should help.



 i do that and it doesn't seem to help  , it either works  like it should or in MCR's case gave me 5 suggestions  all ending in Resources  .

cheers


----------



## sptrawler

Mincor have received their first payment for ore delivery, IMO the mill and concentrator at Kambalda will ramp up throughput and deliveries from MCR will accelerate.
Whether that happens this month is the question, but as the start trigger for the supply contract has been activated I would think they won't be hanging around.
Also with demand taking off for E.V's, the battery suppliers, will be screaming for supply of battery grade product.
Just my musings.


----------



## sptrawler

More high nickel content strikes along the Durkin/ Long decline zone, increases reserves. Just getting better for MCR IMO.

IDH


----------



## sptrawler

Mincor to give production guidance in the September quarter, which should give some indication of cash flows.



			https://cdn-api.markitdigital.com/apiman-gateway/ASX/asx-research/1.0/file/2924-02548566-6A1102733?access_token=83ff96335c2d45a094df02a206a39ff4


----------



## sptrawler

Still waiting on the production report and with that hoping it is good news.


----------



## frugal.rock

Long term support tested at $1.50 and bounced again. 
Nickel price nearing end of approx 4 month consolidation after it's crazy manipulated ride.
Nickel weekly






Mincor


----------



## mullokintyre

Mcr crunched today after quarterly report out today.
bit puzzled, as it has taken mines out of mothballs and restrted production. made a cash loss, somperhaps thats the problem.
i bought in on this weakness. Nickel prices holding up as the LME wharehouse levels contunue to fall.
mick


----------



## Tyre Kicker

I don’t get either Mick.


----------



## charlsie

it's got me stumped too, hopefully mick, in a years time it looks like a great pick up. I've been on MCR for 20 years now and very much expecting them to head the other way in the foreseeable future


----------



## sptrawler

I only had a quick look at announcements, but the reserve update only  seemed to include the Durken/ Long body, it didn't include Casini.
Maybe the speculators misread it and thought that was the only ore MCR has?
I'm currently away from the computer, hopefully someone can find some info, but I will be topping up when I get home.


----------



## divs4ever

mullokintyre said:


> Mcr crunched today after quarterly report out today.
> bit puzzled, as it has taken mines out of mothballs and restarted production. made a cash loss, somperhaps thats the problem.
> i bought in on this weakness. Nickel prices holding up as the LME wharehouse levels contunue to fall.
> mick



 given  the now tolerated  practices in listed stocks ( where predators , not always take-over aspirants , obviously allow short-selling raids )

 you might ask if MCR needs extra finance , they could be lined up  to do a capital raise  in a stressed atmosphere  , less likely  would be BHP weakening them as a prelude to a take-over offer ( they already have an off-take deal with Nickel West ) ( such a take-over offer would make more sense on PAN , so as to grab more resource )

 MCR as mentioned has an off-take deal  so is less likely to be forced into a hedging arrangement 

  i hold MCR ( 'free-carried' ) PAN and BHP


----------



## mullokintyre

The Evil Murdoch Empire  in the form of the Australian had a bit to say about MCR this weekeknd.


> The long-term thematic for nickel is bullish – Benchmark says we need 72 new 42,500 tonne nickel mines by 2035 to meet battery demand – but the short term ain’t bad either.
> 
> While USD nickel prices have remained reasonably static, in Australian dollar terms (Mincor’s sales price exposure) the price has continued to trend upwards, appreciating about 8 per cent over the quarter.
> 
> “By quarter-end, the nickel price was trading at $US22,290/t, or A$34,282/t, well above the price assumed in Mincor’s 2020 Definitive Feasibility Study ($US15,750t/AUD$22,500/t),” the company says.
> 
> “Continuing the trend observed over the past 12 months and reflecting the growing tightness in the physical market, LME nickel stockpiles steadily decreased, falling to 52,758 tonnes by 30 September 2022, representing considerably less than one month of global demand.”
> Base metal prices fell by as much as 2.2 per cent on Thursday, with aluminium down the most.
> 
> The gold futures price also fell by $US3.60 an ounce, or 0.2 per cent, to $US1,665.60 an ounce. Spot gold was trading near $US1,661 an ounce at the US close.
> 
> Meanwhile, iron ore futures fell by US75 cents, or 0.8 per cent, to $US92.81 a tonne.
> 
> The S&P/ ASX Materials index was down ~3.3 per cent in early trade Friday, dragged lower by … well, almost everyone.




The thesis is that the market was disappointed that after a six year  halt, the starting up of mining/refining did not produce more nickel.
The immediate horizon however, suggests that the company is in a good position to benefit from tight Nickel supplies.
My purchase was close to the lows, more thru luck of timing than some skill at picking the lows.
Mick


----------



## divs4ever

mullokintyre said:


> The Evil Murdoch Empire  in the form of the Australian had a bit to say about MCR this weekeknd.
> 
> 
> The thesis is that the market was disappointed that after a six year  halt, the starting up of mining/refining did not produce more nickel.
> The immediate horizon however, suggests that the company is in a good position to benefit from tight Nickel supplies.
> My purchase was close to the lows, more thru luck of timing than some skill at picking the lows.
> Mick



given recent variations in nickel  price , would you be happy with a company that expanded recklessly ( or even aggressively  , like WSA )

 MCR has an agreement with Nickel West , surely living up to that agreement  and cautiously expanding from there , is the sensible choice

 i might also point out  unless the world population shrinks dramatically  , we will need plenty of nickel for other things apart from vehicle batteries

  i was buying MCR  between June 2011  ( @ 85 cents ) and July 2015 ( @ 42.5 cents ) ( av. buying price 57 cents ) and reduced  ( NOT exited )  in August 2021 ( @ $1.35 )

 the timing of the buying was lucky , the selling was logical opportunism  to me ( time to let the profits run free )


DIVIDEND TYPEDIVIDEND AMOUNT ($)FRANKEDEX-DIV DATEPAY DATE*Interim*0.020100.00%19/02/201520/03/2015*Final*0.020100.00%25/08/201424/09/2014*Interim*0.020100.00%18/02/201421/03/2014*Final*0.020100.00%22/08/201325/09/2013*Interim*0.020100.00%21/02/201322/03/2013

note the dates  of the most recent divs.


----------



## sptrawler

I am hoping that MCR has been oversold due to panic selling and therefore expecting a bounce, or a please explain from the umpire.
Also as the offtake agreement with nickel west has been triggered I would assume a rapid ramp up of tonnage to meet the contracted minimum amount.


----------



## divs4ever

sptrawler said:


> I am hoping that MCR has been oversold due to panic selling and therefore expecting a bounce, or a please explain from the umpire.
> Also as the offtake agreement with nickel west has been triggered I would assume a rapid ramp up of tonnage to meet the contracted minimum amount.



MCR has been careful and cautious in the past ( much to my approval )  ramp up,  quite likely  but at , i suspect , a sensible pace 

 that pace might disappoint others over some time , so maybe you can calmly accumulate ( in the dips )


----------



## divs4ever

if BHP are disappointed  with that.  they are welcome to  buy my holding  for something over $1.50 a share  , or a reasonable scrip deal 

 i hold MCR ( 'free-carried ' ) and BHP 

 they have the finances since OZL has refused to sell 

 i hold OZL ( 'free-carried' )


----------



## sptrawler

Well the production guidance in the AGM presentation looks fine, 8-10kt by the end of 2023 and up to 16kt/annum going forward. When it sells for about $US22,000/t.




__





						Loading...
					





					cdn-api.markitdigital.com


----------



## sptrawler

MCR gave an update today, they have commenced the first stope at Cassini, yet are being very coy about production.
I expect some action.


----------



## divs4ever

tended to be conservative with guidance  last time they were in full production  ,  maybe they have kept that stance


----------



## sptrawler

divs4ever said:


> tended to be conservative with guidance  last time they were in full production  ,  maybe they have kept that stance



Well it certainly seems strange from memory they enacted a contract trigger event in May, now they are extracting ore from Cassini, yet they only talk about ramping to full production second half 2023.
Hopefully a case of under promising and over delivering.


----------



## divs4ever

from memory that is what they did in the past , but haven't kept track of ( any ) management  changes 

 but i would expect costs across the whole sector to keep rising  ( so not expecting big profits for a while )


----------



## mullokintyre

MCR into a TH for Cap Raise.
12% discount to last close.
Sigh, just when it seems I might start to make some money on this one, wham, I get a cap raise.
\will put orders in for something less than cap sp just to spite them!
Mick


----------



## frugal.rock

The offer has been priced at A$1.39/sh, representing a 14.4% discount to the Company’s 5-day VWAP up to and  
including 8 December 2022, and a 5.1% discount to the Company’s 30-day VWAP up to and including 8 December  
2022.


----------



## divs4ever

MAYBE 50 cents will tempt me  

 the profits are running  ( but the cash risk resides elsewhere )


----------



## sptrawler

In for a penny, in for a pound, I hate putting in for cap raisings as the price often goes down to it, so I will sit and wait until the last minute.
One snippet of info which, if accurate, sounded promising was:








						Mincor in trading halt as $60 million capital raise is launched
					

Keep up-to-date with all the latest ASX news with Money Morning Australia.



					www.moneymorning.com.au
				



For Cassini, program commencement was initially forecast for late FY2023. However, all being well, this could push to January 2023.

That also seems to fit in with the Nov announcement about the first stope at Cassini, which I mentioned in #594 above.


----------



## sptrawler

MCR have been a favourite of mine over the last three years and the fundamentals are still the same, good resource, good location, minimal overheads and a growing market for the product. Picked them again in the yearly comp.


----------

