# ERA - Energy Resources of Australia



## RichKid (17 October 2005)

Three of the bigger holders of ERA are about to sell out. Possibility of ERA joining the ASX200 as a result. Good article in The Australian: http://www.theaustralian.news.com.au/common/story_page/0,5744,16877247%5E16941,00.html


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## Mellow77 (31 October 2006)

I wonder why nobody comments on this one. 47% rise in less than a month is pretty good, is it not? I wish all my horses perform like it   
Probably going to sell half of my holdings tmrw or this week.
What do you reckon?

Thanx to all.


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## nizar (31 October 2006)

Mellow77 said:
			
		

> I wonder why nobody comments on this one. 47% rise in less than a month is pretty good, is it not? I wish all my horses perform like it
> Probably going to sell half of my holdings tmrw or this week.
> What do you reckon?
> 
> Thanx to all.




i reckon this is a dog

they are selling their uranium at us$16.50/lb as per long-term contracts.

i called the company early this week, they said that no uranium will be sold under the re-negotiated contract prices (at spot) for at least 2 years. So us$16.50/lb it stays at least for a while.

as for jabiluka, they are still waiting for permission from the traditional people before going ahead with development.

poor mine life as well.


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## sleeper88 (1 November 2006)

will jabiluka ever get started?


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## Mellow77 (1 November 2006)

hmmmmmmmmm I see. Actually I knew about the low contract prices, but I also read that some should be renegotiated by the end of this year & with actual mining & stock piles it could help the price up. That's why I bought it. Unfortunately I did not save the link/article.

Strange deals they have. But the bottom line is that the price went up.

I learnt from this forum & others that profit taking is never bad, so going to sell the half. I can not be so greedy, yah?

Thanx for the info


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## laurie (22 November 2006)

Yehaaaaa $19.400 +$1.550 go you good thing    

cheers laurie


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## Sean K (22 November 2006)

laurie said:
			
		

> Yehaaaaa $19.400 +$1.550 go you good thing
> 
> cheers laurie



Your shout Laurie.  :alcohol:  With this a AGS you must be doing quite fine!


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## Sean K (23 November 2006)

I don't think I have seen a more bullish report than this from a broker:

*JP Morgan* rates the stock as Upgrade to Overweight from Neutral - Watch and remain in awe... it''s not an everyday event that a stockbroker decides to catch up with reality, resulting in an price target increase from $11.11 to $32!

JP Morgan has reviewed the uranium market dynamics and outlook and has now placed an average price forecast of US$90/lb for 2007 in its models.

Regarding the revised target, the analysts suggest the stock might well trade higher at some stage as ERA is "the only large uranium producer [in Australia] with long established sales relationships and exploration upside, [and therefore] we believe a premium to NPV is easily justifiable". Voila!

*Target price is $32.00.* Current Price is $17.85 Difference:$14.15 - (brackets indicate current price is over target). If ERA meets the JP Morgan target it will return approximately 79%. 

The company''s fiscal year ends in December. JP Morgan forecasts a full year FY06 dividend of 17.00 cents and EPS of 224.00 cents . At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 0.95%. At the last closing share price the stock''s estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 7.97.


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## nizar (23 November 2006)

kennas said:
			
		

> I don't think I have seen a more bullish report than this from a broker:
> 
> *JP Morgan* rates the stock as Upgrade to Overweight from Neutral - Watch and remain in awe... it''s not an everyday event that a stockbroker decides to catch up with reality, resulting in an price target increase from $11.11 to $32!
> 
> ...




wow, impressive.
too bad they sell their uranium at us$16.50/lb and will do so for the next 2 years   

but its going up, probably worth it to jump on, technical breakout all time highs blue skies now.


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## Gurgler (13 February 2007)

I'm surprised there is so little comment on this stock - last post mid-Nov.

Now today this posting on FN Arena:

*Consolidation Revalues ERA, Paladin
FN Arena News - February 13 2007 

By Greg Peel

Canada's SXR Uranium One has entered into an agreement to buy all the shares of co-Canadian (but with production in Kazakhstan) UrAsia to form the world's second largest uranium producer by market capitalisation.

UBS analysts have crunched the numbers implicit from the bid, and arrived at a valuation of uranium resource of US$31.61/lb.

Australian listed exploration companies tend to trade at only US$16/lb, the analysts note, up from US$9/lb last year. But more important is the valuation implications for Australia's two uranium pure-plays (which are actually producing uranium), Energy Resources Australia (ERA) and Paladin Resources (PDN).

Applying the resource valuation implies a share price valuation for Paladin of $16.86. Equivalently, ERA would be valued at $44.04. Add Jabiluka, and ERA would be worth $100.*


Anyone else holding this stock?


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## laurie (13 February 2007)

Just watch this go past BHP sp! and ERA are still selling at approx $18/lb under existing contracts and Jabiluka is still there once the traditional owners decide what they are going to do and all of this in the N.T.    could see $30 within a month and any more bad news from Cigar Lake will just suit ERA with new contracts

cheers laurie


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## subi1 (13 February 2007)

It is interesting how some people are carrying on about the contracts but from what I can understand they are one of only 4 miners allowed to mine uranium in Australia at this stage. The explorers might not even start to produce by the time the contracts are renegoiated or in fact they may never produce.

Hopefully by time the contracts are negotiated(or before) they will have increased there reserves from Ranger as well.

Time will tell all.


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## michael_selway (13 February 2007)

subi1 said:
			
		

> It is interesting how some people are carrying on about the contracts but from what I can understand they are one of only 4 miners allowed to mine uranium in Australia at this stage. The explorers might not even start to produce by the time the contracts are renegoiated or in fact they may never produce.
> 
> Hopefully by time the contracts are negotiated(or before) they will have increased there reserves from Ranger as well.
> 
> Time will tell all.




Hi do you know what the mine life for ERA is?

*Earnings and Dividends Forecast (cents per share) 
2006 2007 2008 2009 
EPS 22.9 55.3 95.2 149.0 
DPS 17.0 35.0 77.8 110.9 * 


thx

MS


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## mmmmining (14 February 2007)

michael_selway said:
			
		

> Hi do you know what the mine life for ERA is?
> 
> MS




Michael, it depends, mostly on the uranium price, production rate, and lady lucky. Higher grade, they can use more lower grade, and going depth, more pay for the elders,.... 

For your modeling, you might try Limited Perpetual.


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## Go Nuke (14 February 2007)

Would Paladin be the next closest Uranium grp to ERA?

PDN just isn't stopping like ERA.

Hope they both come down to earth a bit...then i might buy
Otherwise...I hope Ive not missed the boat on these 2

 :microwave


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## Bush Trader (14 February 2007)

Has anyone considered the RIO factor when analysing this stock? Remember they hold the majority of the cards, which means the stock is a Koala Bear of sorts.


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## Go Nuke (14 February 2007)

Looking at the past history of PDN...Im guessing the share price should fall to around the $9.40 mark.

Now I know virtually NOTHING about shares..so this is like a little test for me
Its all based on asending triangles and resistance lines etc.

Anyone agree with me? Or am I completely crazy?


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## x2rider (14 February 2007)

Go nuke

 Might be a bit harsh at $ 9.40 for PDn. The gap yesterday had to be filled so that would come to $9.90 . With the underlying trend line I sort of get a price of about $9.60 .  $10.00 today was a great day after the large gain the day before . There was some real  " buy at all cost  " yesterday as people thought that they would miss out . I expect the price to hang around withinn a couple of % for the next few days . I suppose the next big news will be the cigar lake fiasco 
 Cheers martin 

 Might move this to PDN thanks mods


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## laurie (15 February 2007)

subi1 said:
			
		

> It is interesting how some people are carrying on about the contracts but from what I can understand they are one of only 4 miners allowed to mine uranium in Australia at this stage. The explorers might not even start to produce by the time the contracts are renegoiated or in fact they may never produce.
> 
> Hopefully by time the contracts are negotiated(or before) they will have increased there reserves from Ranger as well.
> 
> Time will tell all.




Sorry I'm confused   the reason people carry on about contracts is because thats the bottom line that earns $$$$ and which we get dividends from and the way prices are moving up the next contracts may well be for $100+ even though the price now is $80 but I bet you ERA will sell at spot prices its one thing to lock in falling prices but the way its moving up it would be foolish to lock any price target unless you have a crystal ball  

cheers laurie


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## subi1 (15 February 2007)

The point I was making is that ERA are actually a producer and are getting income. As good as some of the explorers look they may not be in production for a long time. By then hopefully ERA will be on all new contracts at much higher prices. Also they are actively drilling to try to increase their reserves.

Cheers
Gary


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## Go Nuke (15 February 2007)

x2rider said:
			
		

> Go nuke
> 
> Might be a bit harsh at $ 9.40 for PDn. The gap yesterday had to be filled so that would come to $9.90 . With the underlying trend line I sort of get a price of about $9.60 .  $10.00 today was a great day after the large gain the day before . There was some real  " buy at all cost  " yesterday as people thought that they would miss out . I expect the price to hang around withinn a couple of % for the next few days . I suppose the next big news will be the cigar lake fiasco
> Cheers martin
> ...





Thanks x2rider for your feedback
I always seem to fall for that "Im going to miss out bit" and have paid for it in recent times.
Questions is...an an inexperienced share goer...AM i going to miss out if I let say ERA continue on its merry way?
Been burnt so now Im waiting for it to fall a bit...but typical for me..both PDN and ERA will probably continue to climb  

Thx again mate


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## laurie (15 February 2007)

Yes point taken Gary but anything over locked in contracts will be at spot prices the problem is finding out what is the contracted tonnage if the total produced is approx 6000T p.a. IMHO it could be approx 1000-1500T   

cheers laurie


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## Gurgler (8 March 2007)

From FN Arena today:

ERA Declares Force Majeure
FN Arena News - March 08 2007 

By Greg Peel

*"While the uranium price has been heading north apace for the last two years, it was flooding at Cameco's Cigar Lake project in Canada that has forced the price to leap to the recent level of US$85/lb. Cigar Lake was expected to supply 10-12% of the world's uranium by 2010.

 Energy Resources Australia's (ERA) Ranger mine in the Northern Territory supplies 10% of the world's uranium now. A week ago the NT was hit by Cyclone George. Heavy rain prompted a shutdown to mining operations.

 Territory cyclones are hardly rare occurrences, and ERA suffered shutdowns last year under the same circumstances. Back then the company was able to meet its sale commitments through uranium loans and stock drawdowns. This time it's different.

 This time the spot price is much higher, as the uranium market is extremely tight. Due to the long term contract nature of uranium sales, ERA is only averaging around US$22/lb for its ore. Were it forced to buy in uranium to make good on its contracts, ERA would be forced to pay at least US$85/lb and probably more.

 Thus the company has declared force majeure, relieving it of such an obligation. Analysts all agree this is a sensible move.

 The company has indicated that although it should have the mine back up and running within the week, the total effect will be a production level down 20-30% on the March quarter last year. Analysts have responded by reducing earnings forecasts accordingly, but no one has reduced target prices. The simple fact is that production might be reduced, but the only way for the uranium price to respond is another shift upwards.

 ERA's contract customers will now be forced to go into the market, and uranium is extremely hard to find. The last auction trade a week ago – for 100kt at US$85/lb – was overbid by a significant volume at that price level.

 This is good news for the likes of Paladin Resources (PDN), whose Langer Heinrich mine in Namibia has just commenced production. It's been a rollercoaster ride for the Paladin share price, as investors initially took profits above $10, and then started selling in earnest in this latest correction. The hardest hit stocks were those that had risen most dramatically, and Paladin found itself back in the sevens.

 Closing yesterday at $8.85, one presumes another jump is on the cards. The ERA share price has suffered a similar ride, but will likely not be overly damaged by the production loss, given the force majeure and the likelihood of a higher uranium price. ERA closed yesterday at $24.60.

 The FNArena database shows ERA on a 2/2/0 B/H/S ratio with an average target of $27.50 (take out Deutsche Bank and its $29.90). Paladin is showing 1/2/0 and $10.51."*



May explain lower opening today; hope the impact is not too sustained. Increased demand will be good for all producers, long term.


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## mickqld (15 March 2007)

GSJBW website today has a short term marketperform, long term sell recommendation on ERA. Their forecast share price was between $13.54 to $18.24. They seem to be saying that uranium spot price has seen uranium companies become overpriced and expect them to fall back if the uranium price does not rise much above $110/lb.


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## michael_selway (15 March 2007)

mickqld said:
			
		

> GSJBW website today has a short term marketperform, long term sell recommendation on ERA. Their forecast share price was between $13.54 to $18.24. They seem to be saying that uranium spot price has seen uranium companies become overpriced and expect them to fall back if the uranium price does not rise much above $110/lb.




*Earnings and Dividends Forecast (cents per share) 
2006 2007 2008 2009 
EPS 22.9 56.2 105.0 170.3 
DPS 17.0 36.9 70.0 114.0 * 

*EPS(c) PE Growth 
Year Ending 30-12-07 56.2 40.9 145.8% 
Year Ending 30-12-08 105.0 21.9 86.8% * 

thx

MS


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## laurie (27 March 2007)

This is a sleeping giant slowly waking up and we still have Jabiluka   heading for +$30 easy JMHO

cheers laurie


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## Gurgler (4 April 2007)

What's the feeling: at what level will this become a buying opportunity again?

It's one of the few current producers - despite the cyclone. Surely this can be seen as a short term hiccup.

(holding)


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## Kauri (4 April 2007)

Posted this elsewhere, was in todays West Australian paper. 



> The uranium price, already at $US95 ($117) a pound, could be set for further gains this week after Energy Resources of Australia said production from its Ranger mine in the Northern Territory would be flat this year and 25 per cent to 35 per cent lower next year. ERA, which is controlled by Rio


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## Gurgler (26 May 2007)

Gurgler said:


> What's the feeling: at what level will this become a buying opportunity again?
> 
> (holding)




Well, we bit the bullet and took saw Thursday as a buying opportunity. Whether we are on the money or misjudging the tech aspects will be seen over the upcoming months. Opinions, anyone?


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## Sean K (28 May 2007)

Couple of things happening here.

Uptrend broken of course.
Tenuos H&S formed earlier, with target $20. 
Hit support at $22 and bounced. Maybe a dead cat.

Anyone taking a punt that the Mirrar people will cave in to $$$ and give Jabiluka the go ahead? My money would be on $$$ ruling the day in the end. If they make that call, ERA should be very very well supported.  



> DARWIN, Australia (Dow Jones)--Rio Tinto Ltd. (RTP) said Monday a flare-up with traditional landowners over the Jabiluka uranium deposit in Australia's Northern Territory was a misunderstanding and not a major issue.
> 
> Shares in Rio Tinto subsidiary Energy Resources of Australia Ltd. (ERA.AU) slumped last week after the traditional owners of the land, the Mirarr people, said they were distressed by comments from Rio energy chief executive Preston Chiaro that the Mirarrs could soon approve development at Jabiluka, and restated their opposition to the mine.
> 
> ...


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## Gurgler (28 May 2007)

kennas said:


> Anyone taking a punt that the Mirrar people will cave in to $$$ and give Jabiluka the go ahead? My money would be on $$$ ruling the day in the end. If they make that call, ERA should be very very well supported.




This is exactly how I see it. Too much at stake for the two parties not to sort out some solution, probably lubricated with cash incentives.

Thanks for the analysis, Kennas.


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## Sean K (29 May 2007)

Gurgler said:


> This is exactly how I see it. Too much at stake for the two parties not to sort out some solution, probably lubricated with cash incentives.
> 
> Thanks for the analysis, Kennas.



This could be worth a few c to ERA today. There's obviously something in it for the NLC. :

The Age:

*Jabiluka may still be goer: land council*
Lindsay Murdoch, Darwin
May 29, 2007

THE Northern Land Council plans to broker a meeting between Rio Tinto and indigenous owners of Jabiluka, reviving hopes of reopening the $50 billion uranium deposit in the Kakadu National Park.

Norman Fry, chief executive of the council, which represents Aboriginal groups in northern Australia, has declined to pre-empt the outcome of the meeting even though the Mirarr traditional owners said last week their approval for a mine was "not forthcoming".

Asked about the possibility of the Mirarr reversing their opposition, Mr Fry said: "We will be sitting down with Rio Tinto and the Mirarr in the not too distant future and that particular issue will be fleshed out."

Mr Fry made the comments last Friday on the sidelines of a full council meeting of the NLC at a bush site at Gulkula near Nhulunbuy in Arnhem Land, but they have not been made public until now.

Mirarr elders last week reacted angrily to comments made in London by Rio's chief executive, Preston Chiaro, that there was good reason to believe Mirarr senior elder Yvonne Margarula would soon say yes to the development of the mine.

The Mirarrs Gundjeihmi Aboriginal Corporation later issued a statement scathing of Rio's comments, which caused the share price of its subsidiary Energy Resources of Australia to fall 5 per cent.

Gundjeihmi late last week withdrew from training and cultural development projects with ERA, which also operates the Ranger uranium mine on Mirarr land in Kakadu, 20 kilometres south of the abandoned Jabiluka site.

The pro-nuclear NLC appears certain to try to influence Ms Margarula and other Mirarr to agree to develop Jabiluka, the world's largest known untapped uranium deposit.

*The Mirarr could negotiate a multimillion-dollar royalty stream from the mine.*


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## Sean K (13 June 2007)

kennas said:


> Couple of things happening here.
> 
> Uptrend broken of course.
> Tenuos H&S formed earlier, with target $20.
> ...



H&S pattern finalised at $22 ish today after releasing reduced earnigs guidance. $20 is also horizontal support and I see this as a potential consolidation area. I think that Jabiluka will be a goer after ERA agree to enough compensation which will result in ERA starting a new operation unheadged to a $200 ish uranium price perhaps. Long term the spot is obviously going to come back and even if it gets back to the lowest forecast that I have seen ($35) that will still make Jabiluka economical. (I think ) 

Anyone taking a punt here?

I'm going to wait to see it break back up through $22 I think before committing.


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## 56gsa (14 June 2007)

nice call kennas - have been waiting for this to retrace and although hesitant to buy too much before july i think era could be an exception given the U price outlook and seems they are resolving issues with mirarr... will be watching closely


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## Gurgler (17 June 2007)

Gurgler said:


> Well, we bit the bullet and took saw Thursday as a buying opportunity. Whether we are on the money or misjudging the tech aspects will be seen over the upcoming months.




Gulp - seems we may have misjudged the bottom (just a little!). Now sitting on $18.65 - but all the money's spent . Bummer!

I still have faith in the future though and agree with the sentiments expressed above.


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## Sean K (17 June 2007)

Gurgler said:


> Gulp - seems we may have misjudged the bottom (just a little!). Now sitting on $18.65 - but all the money's spent . Bummer!
> 
> I still have faith in the future though and agree with the sentiments expressed above.



Reading the Melbourne Sunday Sun today in the 1 page finance section  they have 3 brokers (experts ) give their Buy, Hold and Sell recommendations. One of them had ERA as a Sell, and one had it as a Buy. 

It goes against a few general TA guidelines for ERA to have broken down through $20.00, so it's a little disturbing. There looked to be clear support at that level, coinciding with the 200d ma, so a break through that is significant. More support around $18.00 so it _should _pause there. But golly, what a fall from grace in a uranium bull market. Looking back, that break down through $24.00 in mid May, through upward support trend line, was the clincher. 

This might be just part of the rotation around the commodities atm, and I think there's been lots of money transferred from U to O&G and the BIG miners. I think the really big money has gone into BHP, RIO and WPL over the past week. 

I'm looking at this as a solid turn around story _eventually_. Maybe. Watching for the break up.


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## mickqld (17 June 2007)

kennas said:


> Reading the Melbourne Sunday Sun today in the 1 page finance section  they have 3 brokers (experts ) give their Buy, Hold and Sell recommendations. One of them had ERA as a Sell, and one had it as a Buy.
> 
> It goes against a few general TA guidelines for ERA to have broken down through $20.00, so it's a little disturbing. There looked to be clear support at that level, coinciding with the 200d ma, so a break through that is significant. More support around $18.00 so it _should _pause there. But golly, what a fall from grace in a uranium bull market. Looking back, that break down through $24.00 in mid May, through upward support trend line, was the clincher.
> 
> ...




Did you see the photos of Ranger on Inside Business this morning on the ABC. Blimey that is the biggest swimming pool in the world. Its going to be a long time before that start pulling more ore from this baby. Agree that this one will be a very solid turn around but I'd be waiting a few months yet before they even look like extracting again from this pool. I hope their stockpiles are going to last long enough otherwise there is more downside here yet.


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## Lachlan6 (13 July 2007)

Waiting for a CFD long trade in (ERA) at the moment. Probably has hit its intermediate bottom and is looking to go higher from here. Nice little double bottom shaping up with very nice divergence in OBV and MACD. Will not enter until $22.00 is broken due to the cluster of resistance here (100 day EMA, horizontal resistance, down sloping resistance) for a possible first target of $25.18. This is calculated as the 38% level above the breakout coinciding with the range from June last year to March highs this year.


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## 56gsa (17 July 2007)

Bounced off your $22 resistance Lachlan so more waiting I think - Qtrly report out today - good production figures of 1490kt of U against 4800 ktpa forecast, although still problems with the pit and force majure on sales until 2008 - despite these problems ABN still have a price target of $26 and forecast EPS in FY09 of 117cents.  The potential is because of the investment now in Ranger on exploration etc which previously had fallen away - also Jabiluka upside still a possibility


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## Gurgler (17 July 2007)

Quarterly report out today indicates a drop in mining - only down 10% on last quarter) and production (and milling) is up 48%.

Not too bad despite the flooding of sections of the open pit.

(source: http://www.asx.com.au/asxpdf/20070717/pdf/313gqfqnnpd3y8.pdf)


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## Gurgler (27 July 2007)

Lachlan6 said:


> Waiting for a CFD long trade in (ERA) at the moment. Probably has hit its intermediate bottom and is looking to go higher from here. Nice little double bottom shaping up with very nice divergence in OBV and MACD.




Lachlan

Would you say this is now an inverted head and shoulders, now?

What do the other indicators tell you about future movement?


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## 56gsa (8 August 2007)

IF the present slump in ERA is due to the fall in the short-term spot price in U then it looks like a good buy imho... 3 reasons:


ERA is getting about US$20/lb for its production - a slump in the U price therefore has no real impact unless it goes below this level.  The LT price for U is still high (I think I read US$95/lb somewhere), but even if they just wrote new contracts at the level PDN did (US$60/lb) we're talking a tripling in revenues.

The force majure I don't think has forced them into buying U off the market to supply contracts (but if they did then fall in U price would be positive!)

Only 2 weeks ago they announced a profit and increases in out year production figures, they are also putting a lot more effort into exploration and trying to expand Ranger defining a new pit with possible two-year mine life.  Also investigating several options to improve processing etc.
has anyone heard anything specific re ERA in last couple of days?

does the chart suggest a triple bottom?  any t/a thoughts?


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## 56gsa (9 August 2007)

ERA looks to have found some support just above $18 this morning - any thoughts on the chart?  $18 looks critical support - not only for short term double bottom but also long term trend from Jan 2003


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## Gundini (9 August 2007)

You would think this a good entry point 56, although I am still concerned about future earnings due to the impact of flooding. Seems to be a fair bit of room for disappointment. I'm a bit on the fence with this one.

17/07/2007  9:46AM 

MELBOURNE (Dow Jones)--Uranium miner Energy Resources of Australia Ltd. (ERA.AU) Tuesday said second quarter production at its Ranger mine has risen but flooding will continue to impact operations into 2008. 

Heavy rains in February and March have seen the water level rise at the mine in the Northern Territory, disrupting production and forcing ERA to give guidance for a first half loss of between A$5 million and A$10 million. 

"Production and sales deliveries for the balance of 2007 and 2008 will continue to be affected as a result of water levels in the pit delaying access to high grade ore," ERA said Tuesday. 

The Rio Tinto Ltd. (RTP) subsidiary produced 1,490 metric tons of uranium in the second quarter, up 150% on the previous corresponding period which was also impacted by heavy rains and cyclones. 

Rio said a rise in production was due to processing of high grade ore that was mined and stockpiled prior to the wet season. 



-By Alex Wilson, Dow Jones Newswires; 61-3-9671-4313; alex.wilson@dowjones.com


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## Gurgler (15 August 2007)

Here's some good news at last. Will this egg on the ERA revival in sp?

*Green light for uranium sales to India
Posted 06.10 August 15, 2007. 


Australia has reversed its policy of selling uranium only to signatories of the Non-Proliferation Treaty. (AFP: BHP Billiton/SkyScans)
Australia has ended its ban on uranium sales to India, with senior ministers meeting late last night to reverse a policy of selling the nuclear fuel only to signatories of the Non-Proliferation Treaty.

A report in The Australian newspaper says Foreign Affairs Minister Alexander Downer convinced cabinet colleagues that a uranium deal with India was in Australia's interest.

Under the proposed deal, Australian nuclear inspectors will be allowed to check that uranium is used only for peaceful purposes and not diverted for nuclear weapons programs.

Mr Downer has ruled out exports to Pakistan, saying the country has a very poor record of proliferation

Prime Minister John Howard will contact his Indian counterpart, Manmohan Singh, to explain the conditions of the proposed export deal before officially announcing the agreement.*


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## Sean K (20 August 2007)

ERA chart is looking interesting.

Hit those H&S targets, bumping it's way down to some long term support and 200d ma. 

It will be interesting to see how it handles this. 

Gotta be one of the worst performing 'blue chips'. It's halved in 4 months! 

It's on my bottom picking potential list.

If they get the go ahead at Jabiluka, then it'll probably find a bottom then. 

Of course, if the DOW goes down to 300, then it might struggle.


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## Gurgler (30 September 2007)

Happy with the move on Friday. Is this the beginning of some sort of recovery - if it consolidates above $20?


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## juw177 (31 October 2007)

This has finally broken out and I took a long position at $21 when it showed good strength above $20. Next resistence should be between $23-24 mark that was around June.


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## Gurgler (1 November 2007)

Originally posted on PDN thread:



eMark said:


> With the misfortunes of TSX.CCO -1.73 (3.59%) *more Cigar Lake delays* & TSX.UUU -2.48 (19.48%) *slashing production forecasts*, comes fortune for TSX.PDN +0.53 (7.78%) finishing at $7.34. Nice!
> 
> Also last nights U futures for December was up another $5.30 to finish at $97.30



 Thanks, eMark.

Surely this must augur well for this other big U-producer? I look to an ongoing recovery for ERA, Technically, was that a (misshaped) cup and handle occuring over Aug-Oct?


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## Lucky_Country (4 January 2008)

No real movement in ERA for some time now seems to have got support around the $19 mark.
Am looking forward too the next quarterly report on production and spot price sales.
Anyone know when there hedging expires? Is it late 2008 like what I thought I heard some time back or does anyone know different?


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## chops_a_must (6 January 2008)

Lucky_Country said:


> No real movement in ERA for some time now seems to have got support around the $19 mark.
> Am looking forward too the next quarterly report on production and spot price sales.
> Anyone know when there hedging expires? Is it late 2008 like what I thought I heard some time back or does anyone know different?




As am I. 

I can't see any reason to be long ERA. Still firmly in an almost year long downtrend, in a market that is showing a tendency to roll over on stocks in established downtrends. Seasonal mining difficulties coming up... in what looks to be a very wet wet season. Just a few reasons to get short... plus, ERA reacts badly to any market correction...

But there is both good and bad news. The good news being that this should only get to it's lower trend line. The bad news is, that trend line will be between 10 and 11 dollars if/ when it gets there.

A couple of T/A observations. I'm assuming we are in a corrective c of some sort. A symmetrical C should _see_ this get to about 10.80. We also have quite an obvious and symmetrical H&S pattern just about complete. The breakdown target from that is in the low 12's. Another interesting thing, is that this has had almost no buying interest on dips. Volume just stays flat. Virtually no interest on up days of late either. All this points to a high probability of seeing ERA between about $12 and $11.

With the chance of a very good R:R trade on it.

Cheers.

P.S. - obviously I'm shorting it.


----------



## Lucky_Country (6 January 2008)

August correction U3O8 was trading at $60lb ERA dropped too $16.
U308 now trading at $90lb and set too rise too $105lb in the first quarter we wont be seeing $16 a share again IMO.
I think production will be on the upside with an increase in spot sales Admittedly the heat has gone out of the uranium sector and is a bit stagnant but is still a sound investment with a few brokers having a $28 target price on ERA.


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## Sean K (6 January 2008)

chops_a_must said:


> I can't see any reason to be long ERA.



Technically I haven't an opinion atm, but a cat out of the bag may be the approval of Jabiluka. Wouldn't want to be short when the locals come out and say 'dig that **** up!' My tip would be at least a 30% jump in sp.


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## Lucky_Country (6 January 2008)

Jabiluka would real set a fire under the sp as would the conclusion of ERAs hedgebook which I think will finish sometime this year.
Jabiluka has alot of bad blood over it but peace has prevailed and the local people maybe warming too the idea and the employment and training opportunites it would provide.
Looking forward too the months quarterly and half yearly results may give the sp a boost.


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## Sean K (6 January 2008)

Lucky_Country said:


> Jabiluka would real set a fire under the sp as would the conclusion of ERAs hedgebook which I think will finish sometime this year.
> Jabiluka has alot of bad blood over it but peace has prevailed and the local people maybe warming too the idea and the employment and training opportunites it would provide.
> Looking forward too the months quarterly and half yearly results may give the sp a boost.



I think once they realise what the end of Ranger will mean to their ability to sit at a table at the MGM Grand then the ink will be flowing. It's like death, first years, and taxes....


----------



## nitpra (6 January 2008)

Planning to short this only if it goes below 18.50 as this appears to be the immediate support level. Also, during the last three years, there had been an upward movement during Jan-Mar. Any comments on this ?


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## Lucky_Country (6 January 2008)

Finally found it !
ERA Annual General Meeting:Chairmans Address 19 October 2000.
" The company continues too write new long term contracts, with three new long term contracts signed in the last financial year.The company has in place for the sale of 23,000 tonnes of uranium oxide over the next 8 years"
So anytime between now and the end of this financial year these contracts are set too expire now that will give the sp a real boost.


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## treefrog (6 January 2008)

having a divvy worse than BHP has not been attractive for ERA but forecasts are looking much better so may be helping the potential upside
ERA(.8%)
     2006 2007 2008 *2009* 
EPS 22.9 22.0 52.4 *106.0* 
DPS 17.0 12.0 22.1 *89.7 *

BHP(1.5%)
      2007  2008  2009  2010 
EPS 275.0 315.0 388.4 354.8 
DPS  55.4  65.3   74.8  83.0 

Last three years this share loves performing H&S and DT patterns and then dipping about 76% fib level so current H&S that chops refers to may complete around $17 and agree LT trendline is also around $17


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## treefrog (6 January 2008)

ASX ann fri 4th "presentation - melb mining club" appears to indicate we are entering a period of world oversupply for a few years from 2008 before getting back to shortage from 2018/9

essential perusing for any holding U stocks


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## Lucky_Country (6 January 2008)

Mining projects such as Cameco will not come onstream until 2011 and supply is tight and uncertain.
ERA is selling its uranium at an average of $17 lb due too long term contracts signed years ago as I stated in one of my previous post they are due too expire this year according too the stated chairmans address.
With that in mind there sales revenue will more than triple over the coming year at todays spot market price.
Jabiluka is obviously still in there plans and could be given the go ahead at anytime.


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## nitpra (6 January 2008)

ERA has  had some legacy contracts signed in  early 2000 with very low spot price at that time, nevertheless the sp has reached $28  during March 2007. Now most  of those contracts are nearing to end soon (probably this year) and  will roll out their current portfoilio and will be replaced with new contracts reflecting current prices.


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## Lucky_Country (6 January 2008)

Exactly so just imagine what the share price will be when they announce the finish of these existing contracts not long too go now some may even have already expired.
Jabiluka would be the icing on the cake and a serious increase in dividends !


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## chops_a_must (6 January 2008)

I'm glad I've stirred up some healthy debate! 

Kennas, I can't imagine Peter Garrett and the new federal government allowing U mining in Kakadu, even if the locals sign off. You can't tell me he wont be looking to prove himself on a key-note issue after rightly being called a sell-out. Politically the ramifications would be disasterous IMO. Especially as ERA's environmental record is appalling. Same with BHP's Cannington mine FWIW. Similar problems. Paid their way out of losing export licenses in QLD etc. usual story...

An attitude of assuming the locals will just "roll over", I think ignores the history that those people have with the mining companies. They feel they have been totally shafted, and I dare say would make anything as difficult as possible (which is what has happened). I'm not sure the closure of Ranger will have the impact you say as the Mirrar people have never been happy with the employment rights anyway, as far as I'm aware. And they appear more interested in environmental/ rehab employment and training, which they aren't getting, so I can't see them doing any favours any time soon.

IJH, why will ERA go to $28? If it will, why has it put in a lower high? Why will U go to a certain price? Did someone say it would? I take forecasts with a grain of salt. Supply/ demand is out of the window, ability to pay is king, and is reducing world wide.

You don't think higher U prices are factored into the SP? Not with a P/E of about 80? Hmmm.... I guess the point is, being long on a downtrend is pretty risky. What happens if it does look as though it will get near my targets? What will you do? If this moves against me, I'm out, no biggie. The chart reminds me of ZFX, and the comments are quite similar. Impossible etc etc.

Fib level right on that potential C move. Hmmmm...

Cheers.


----------



## nitpra (6 January 2008)

ERA has ceased mining at its Ranger mine in N’territory due to Cyclone Helen as reported on 5/1/08. However there are huge stockpiles at the mine so the operation would not fall behind in production.


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## Lucky_Country (6 January 2008)

Chops I agree with some of your commentry my reason for liking ERA that it already is a producer and producing U308 for 3rd parties that cant meet their contractual agreements.
ERA is also expanding Ranger resources and increasing mine life.
ERA is due too end its hedging contracts this year by my understanding wich will triple its revenue income as its currently selly U308 at $16.90 too be exact.
Jabiluka is by far no done deal but is a great orebody worth billions and hopefully they can work something out with the traditional owners that benefits both parties in its development.
So basically ERA is a producer, selling cheaply but not for much longer increasing resources and forecast of slightly higher spot pricesand have a gem in Jabiluka.


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## Lucky_Country (15 January 2008)

Positive quarterly from ERA average sales price us$25.06 up from us$18.34 hopefully this is because of the long term contracts are slowly expiring.
Production up because of high grade ore being mined and further pit extensions planned .
Well finish of contracts and restart of Jabiluka they could really put a rocket under the sp.


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## Lucky_Country (20 January 2008)

ERA in todays West Australian Times 2 brokers covering the company.
One with a buy the other a hold seems too be back on everyones radar after a bit of a soft spell.
Increased production contacts seem too be disolving and getting higher prices Uranium prices firming and increasing.
Has done extemley well during this correction and set up well for the next rally.


----------



## Kelpie (27 March 2008)

Any thoughts on the current direction of the ERA SP? Seems to have broken from its uptrend..........................


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## peteai (27 March 2008)

ERA seems a very safe investment IMO.

2007 revenue $350 profit after tax around $70 mil

which means when it gets $25 it makes a small profit it only makes $5 of the sell price as profit - now looking forward when its selling at $75

costs should to the same now $1 billion in revenues and small costs.
Whos to say it may get more than $75

Add in Jabiliku at some stage (even if it is 10 years from now) and there is lots of upside.

Its only a shame we don't know when the old contracts roll-over ?
Anyone can shed light on this.

ERA says it can not divulge this for commercial reasons.
I don't quite get that & think the  market should know this for the transparency benefit is important - and I don't see ERA getting lower prices for future sales if this info is revealed

Cheers,
Peteai


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## reece55 (27 March 2008)

peteai said:


> ERA seems a very safe investment IMO.
> 
> 2007 revenue $350 profit after tax around $70 mil
> 
> ...




Not sure about whether ERA is necessarily a safe investment (although I guess that depends on what you consider to be safe)..... This stock has been extremely volatile and is unlikely to be taken over due to Rio's ownership, therefore doesn't attract a possible takeover premium.

Without knowing their long term contracts in place, it's a bit difficult to gauge. However, just doing a quick valuation method (sustainable cash flow with 75% increase year one, 55% y2, 40% y3, 15% y4 and 12% in perpetuity, 12.5% discount rate, capex at 1.2 * D&A), fair value comes up at about $18 a share, so I would say it is between appropriately priced to a bit expensive....

Not exactly a yield stock either, so for me on a risk reward basis it doesn't seem that attractive.....

T/A wise, long term (5 year chart) shows a healthy uptrend in place, although it looks like it is in a consolidation phase ATM. Short term, looks like heading lower after a break through 20.50 support, with next support at 17.50 - 18.

Cheers


----------



## Kelpie (27 March 2008)

Many thanks peteai and reece for sharing your information withe a newbie like myself...................................


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## peteai (28 March 2008)

reece55 said:


> Not sure about whether ERA is necessarily a safe investment (although I guess that depends on what you consider to be safe)..... This stock has been extremely volatile and is unlikely to be taken over due to Rio's ownership, therefore doesn't attract a possible takeover premium.
> 
> Without knowing their long term contracts in place, it's a bit difficult to gauge. However, just doing a quick valuation method (sustainable cash flow with 75% increase year one, 55% y2, 40% y3, 15% y4 and 12% in perpetuity, 12.5% discount rate, capex at 1.2 * D&A), fair value comes up at about $18 a share, so I would say it is between appropriately priced to a bit expensive....
> 
> ...




Thanks for the analysis Reece it's made me think I should brush up on a some Excel.

However I think it understates the upside in ERAs profit growth. Once ERA gets $75 per pound, ERAs profit should be $700mil or more. That is a *1000%* increase in profit. Some are saying that the old contracts will largely end in the next couple of years but who knows. If you could adjust the spread sheet to take as variables
A: the years the legacy contracts run and
B: the end prices

It would be a interesting model for ERAs value.

Also Kelpie you may consider yourself a newbie, but I welcome your opinion - let me know if I'm talking rubbish

Cheers,
Peteai


----------



## reece55 (29 March 2008)

peteai said:


> Thanks for the analysis Reece it's made me think I should brush up on a some Excel.
> 
> However I think it understates the upside in ERAs profit growth. Once ERA gets $75 per pound, ERAs profit should be $700mil or more. That is a *1000%* increase in profit. Some are saying that the old contracts will largely end in the next couple of years but who knows. If you could adjust the spread sheet to take as variables
> A: the years the legacy contracts run and
> ...




Hi Petai
Yes, I agree it was on the conservative side of the equation....

But there are a couple of reason's why I don't think that the NPAT of 700 mil will be seen any time soon:

1. The royalties they pay would be tied to the revenue received - don't know what basis of the royalty is, but it's pretty clear it moves with the revenue.

2. Long term U price - it's had quite a rise in the last couple of years. I understand the economics concerned, but what would happen if the price of U would fall?

As previously said, as they don't disclose the long term contracts, it's impossible to model it predictably. If you wanted to, you could model the flows on the U price, it wouldn't be that difficult. However, I think what I previously attached is a conservative view of what the outcome could be.

Cheers

You could be more scientific, but I think what I supplied gives you the "back of the envelope" calculation.


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## peteai (31 March 2008)

reece55 said:


> Hi Petai
> Yes, I agree it was on the conservative side of the equation....
> 
> But there are a couple of reason's why I don't think that the NPAT of 700 mil will be seen any time soon:
> ...




Hi Reece55,


Yes NPAT of $700Miil may not happen but it is quite possible.
I'm just regarding this as a safe stock because there seems to me a lot more upside than down side.

e.g If the U price drops to $50 by the time ERAs old contracts end it still ends up with a profit of about $400mil (they pay about 5% royalty I believe)
Thats a major increase tin profit - While many othe U companies would have  major drops in profit Also if the credit crisis continues it will probably cause a lot of problems for ERA competitors (financing mines etc) while the nuclear power stations would still be running. Add to that the possibilty of Jabiluka, that the secondary U supply reduces while China plans to build 60GW of nuclear capacity by 2020 etc

IMO there is much more upside that down side. Sure if many things go wrong for ERA the value would reduce. These are just my views & I welcome debate.

Cheers,
PETEAI


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## peteai (22 April 2008)

*ERA - Valuation*

I have been considering how ERAs long term contracts  should be treated in valuing the company. The sales made last year are what affects the last profit reported. But the contracts being made today (largely around the U long term price ?_- and these contracts are more than projections they are effectively guaranteed cash flows.  This info would be extremely useful in valuing the company -  the problem ,of course, is that these contracts are kept secret.

ERA says they are kept secret for commercial reasons.
I'm not sure how much ERA loses by making this info public but it strikes me as being totally against the princiiple of transparency.

Does anyone have opinions on this ?

Cheers
Peteai


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## reece55 (22 April 2008)

*Re: ERA - Valuation*



peteai said:


> I have been considering how ERAs long term contracts  should be treated in valuing the company. The sales made last year are what affects the last profit reported. But the contracts being made today (largely around the U long term price ?_- and these contracts are more than projections they are effectively guaranteed cash flows.  This info would be extremely useful in valuing the company -  the problem ,of course, is that these contracts are kept secret.
> 
> ERA says they are kept secret for commercial reasons.
> I'm not sure how much ERA loses by making this info public but it strikes me as being totally against the princiiple of transparency.
> ...




It's a bit tricky, because in my view a series of long term contracts are almost exactly the same thing as forward selling without upfront cost. Derivatives like forwards obviously are mandated for disclosure in accordance with the financial instruments standard. But they seem to be able to get away with absolutely no disclosure on the matter. Not even a bloody footnote! PWC are signing off, so I'm sure a big 4 firm would ensure it is compliant, they signed an unqualified report.

Is it transparent - no way. But accounts don't have to be transparent, they just have to obey accounting standards and present a true and fair view......

Cheers


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## treefrog (22 April 2008)

getting squeezed into a decission which way soon
they may well be in a "commercial in confidence" situation with running contracts but cannot see how this prevents them providing indications as to quantity and end dates so that analyst have a little more info to analyse/project - annoying to say the least


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## treefrog (22 April 2008)

comsec
......2007 2008 2009 2010 
EPS 41.7 57.0 93.5 172.1 
DPS 20.0 28.6 70.3 112.7 

and westpac
.................Curr 2008 2009 
EPS (c) ......41.7 57.0 93.5 
PE Ratio (x) 47.3 34.6 21.1 
DPS (c) ......20.0 28.6 70.3 
Div Yield (%) 1.0 1.5 3.6 

so what are they working from??


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## reece55 (22 April 2008)

treefrog said:


> comsec
> ......2007 2008 2009 2010
> EPS 41.7 57.0 93.5 172.1
> DPS 20.0 28.6 70.3 112.7
> ...




Puddle lanes pond......

Muddle puddle - does anyone remember that silly show on ABC?

It would just be an educated stab in the dark I would have thought Treefrog, much like the valuation I have already put up....

Cheers


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## peteai (23 April 2008)

*Re: ERA - transparency * Insider Trading*

I also see a bigger issue related to lack of transparency.  There would be certain group of people in ERA who know a lot more about these contracts than the market.  Should they be allowed to trade with this information advantage ?  There is nothing to stop them so they probably are! 

Cheers,


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## zed327 (12 May 2008)

Jabiluka will not stay idle for much longer.


http://www.mineweb.com/mineweb/view/mineweb/en/page43?oid=52339&sn=Detail

AUSTRALIAN URANIUM 

Sleeping uranium giant Jabiluka now clearly in ERA’s thinking

A presentation to the United States market by the Rio Tinto-controlled Energy Resources of Australia (ERA) showed that one of the world’s sleeping uranium giants, the Jabiluka project, is now firmly in the company’s development plans.

Author: Ross Louthean 
Posted: Tuesday , 06 May 2008 

PERTH - 

Jabiluka in the Northern Territory, originally discovered by Pancontinental Mining, has been politically sterilised from development for more than three decades but the political door is now open with the NT and South Australia now amenable to development of new uranium mines.

Energy Resources of Australia Ltd (ASX: ERA) has one political hurdle and that is an undertaking given about three years ago by a Rio Tinto executive along the lines that Jabiluka's development would need the sanction of the traditional landholders in that sector of the Alligator Rivers region. That has seen anti uranium groups undertaking heavy lobbying of the genuine and the questionable land titleholders for Jabiluka, which has reserves of 11.8 million tonnes grading 0.5% U308 for 59,000t of contained U308 (at an 0.2% cut-off grade), and resources of 15.18 Mt @ 0.5% U308 for 76,403t (0.2% cut-off). Old reports indicate Jabiluka also has a gold zone containing up to 1 million ounces.

At ERA's Ranger mine, which has operated for 28 years and been the world's second largest uranium operation, the Ranger 3 deposit has remaining reserves of 32.11 Mt @ 0.15% for 49,671t (at an 0.08% cut-off grade for in situ ore and 0.06% for stockpiled ore) and resources of 42.39 Mt @ 0.12% for 50,567t U308 (including low grade stockpiled ore not processed).

In the US presentation ERA's chief executive Chris Salisbury said Ranger 3, which processes ore at 2.4 Mt per annum, is due to cease mining in 2012 though the processing life will go through to 2020.

After a declaration of force majeure in 2007 the company expects normal production this year. Despite this 2007 produced record profit of $A76 M ($US71.89 M) from $A362 M ($US342.4 M) revenue with the production of 5,412t U308.

Salisbury said ERA sells uranium under long term contracts and the average realised price lifted in 2007 to $US25.06/lb compared with 2006's $US18.36 and 2005's $US16/lb. The contracts, generally of 3-5 years duration, have a mixture of pricing mechanisms including being "fixed price/base escalated", linked to market indicators and negotiated prices.

He said about half of the metal at Ranger 3 is in existing stockpiles and the remainder is in situ in the current final pit shell design.

"The future processing of the material is subject to a detailed study to be concluded mid year," he said.

With the Pit 3 extension work which extended mine life to 2012 an additional 4,857t (10.7 M lbs) of uranium was added to reserves.

There was also a "significant exploration pipeline" with targets including Ranger 18 and trial seismic surveying was underway for drill targeting purposes.

ERA is 68.4% owned by Rio Tinto.


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## michael_selway (13 May 2008)

zed327 said:


> In the US presentation ERA's chief executive Chris Salisbury said Ranger 3, which processes ore at 2.4 Mt per annum, is due to cease mining in 2012 though the processing life will go through to 2020.
> 
> ERA is 68.4% owned by Rio Tinto.




Hm so the expected mine life isnt that long 2020

*Earnings and Dividends Forecast (cents per share) 
2007 2008 2009 2010 
EPS 41.7 57.0 106.6 194.8 
DPS 20.0 29.0 79.0 119.6* 

thx

MS


----------



## Aurum (14 July 2008)

Whilst most of this thread seems to be fundamental in nature, has anyone noticed the year long Ascending Triangle in the chart?

Aurum.
I don't currently hold and have no association with the linked site.


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## peteai (15 July 2008)

Aurum said:


> Whilst most of this thread seems to be fundamental in nature, has anyone noticed the year long
> 
> Aurum.
> I don't currently hold and have no association with the linked site.





Hi Aurum,

I am not a chartist but I have noticed a clear trend line in the lows & highs 

I have believe ERA was a good investment for about a year now - A lot of upside and very little down side -There will be significant profit increases probably for several years - given that the long term price of U is much higher than the average U price that todays profits are based on - and contracts being made now will affect profits upto 7 years from now (meaning they will finish then). 

Very few companies have a floor of rising profits for several years - The rest is upside meaning that if the price of U just stays as it is - If ERA has any exploration success, if Jabilika moves forward Then ERA has more blue sky.

Most companys face the real prospect of their profits disappearing e.g Qantas if fuel prices go up, retailers if we have a recession - banks if the cost of finance goes up

But ERA has a resource that won't disappear and a growing customer base that must buy (it very expensive to have reactors idle)

I admit I sound very pro-ERA but I have made criticisms e.g I wish there was more transparency with their contracts. - I am an investor however I only say it as I see it and welcome any opinions

Cheers,
Peteai


----------



## michael_selway (15 July 2008)

peteai said:


> Hi Aurum,
> 
> I am not a chartist but I have noticed a clear trend line in the lows & highs
> 
> ...




Hi Peteai, but does it have a short mine life?

*Earnings and Dividends Forecast (cents per share) 
2007 2008 2009 2010 
EPS 41.7 53.1 125.2 182.6 
DPS 20.0 29.0 67.8 108.0 *

thx

MS


----------



## peteai (17 July 2008)

michael_selway said:


> Hi Peteai, but does it have a short mine life?
> 
> *Earnings and Dividends Forecast (cents per share)
> 2007 2008 2009 2010
> ...




Hi Michael,

What I consider the base case is it finds no more U. To estimate the life of the mine I checked out their reserves & resources at Ranger. 110mill pound of U reserves & about 120mil pound resources. If you just include the reserve and assume $US 50 profit per pound that equates to $US 5.5 billion  With ERA mkt capitalisation now at $4.5 bill.  Of course this is very rough, does not allow for much of a discount rate

But as I mentioned previously I think there is much more room on the upside - more resources (they is almost assured & add the possibility of Jabiluka - strong when you consider the global warming imperative is only going to get stronger)

Cheers,
Peteai


----------



## peteai (23 July 2008)

Aurum said:


> Whilst most of this thread seems to be fundamental in nature, has anyone noticed the year long Ascending Triangle in the chart?
> 
> Aurum.
> I don't currently hold and have no association with the linked site.




Hi Aurum,

I checked the chart again and it is staying within the ascending_triangle you mention - however there is less & less room between the highs & lows - so  the annual report will come out just on cue for the lines to join and force a break from this pattern

Hey now I'm a chartist

Cheers,
PETEAI


----------



## deadset (18 September 2008)

This stock has been smashed beyond the market and prices recently.
I can't recall seeing any negatory news.  Anyone heard anything lately ?


----------



## treefrog (13 October 2008)

deadset said:


> This stock has been smashed beyond the market and prices recently.
> I can't recall seeing any negatory news.  Anyone heard anything lately ?




nope - apart from some sort of review to start this week


> Date: 13/10/2008
> Author: David Ciampa
> Source: The Australian Financial Review --- Page: 26
> During the week commencing 13 October 2007, *Energy Resources of Australia willannounce its 2008 third quarter operations review*. Also during the week, the TenNetwork will report its annual results and Brickworks Investment Company willstage its annual meeting. RiverCity Motorway, which recently reported a $A37.6mprofit, will hold its AGM on 15 October




interesting though - I was trying to buy back in apr/may at $18 support level but insto buying didn't let it drop - duh, that makes the instos smarter than me then, who is still biding their time
now below $10 on intraday trade when the general market is having a little uptwitch


----------



## Sean K (13 October 2008)

treefrog said:


> now below $10 on intraday trade when the general market is having a little uptwitch



Crikey!! More than halved in 3 months. Disaster short term for the buy and hopers...eeeek!

POU smashed down to $53 may be the answer, but aren't they hedged to the hilt with their forward contracts selling at about $20 a pound or something stupid. 

What's the long term POU forecast anyone? Isn't it around the $90 mark? Maybe Cigar Lake has been miraculously drained? 

Once they are inevitabley allowed to dig up Jabiluka I anticipate a significant re-rating. 

Hmmmmm.


----------



## treefrog (13 October 2008)

kennas said:


> Crikey!! More than halved in 3 months. Disaster short term for the buy and hopers...eeeek!
> 
> POU smashed down to $53 may be the answer, but aren't they hedged to the hilt with their forward contracts selling at about $20 a pound or something stupid.
> 
> ...




my understanding is that yes, they have had LT contracts for < $20 and ERA has been playing difficult with expiry date details of these but generally (a few months back) concensus was that a significant number of low price contracts expires this half of the year and more in first half of next
suspect the market was expecting these to be re-written at $80-90 but now sees this as highly unlikely - helluva dip though


----------



## peteai (13 October 2008)

treefrog said:


> my understanding is that yes, they have had LT contracts for < $20 and ERA has been playing difficult with expiry date details of these but generally (a few months back) concensus was that a significant number of low price contracts expires this half of the year and more in first half of next
> suspect the market was expecting these to be re-written at $80-90 but now sees this as highly unlikely - helluva dip though




I thought they would have rolling contracts through the years i.e some made in 04,05,06,07.  But if it is as you say - their time has been extraordinarily bad

PETEAI


----------



## chops_a_must (13 October 2008)

chops_a_must said:


> As am I.
> 
> I can't see any reason to be long ERA. Still firmly in an almost year long downtrend, in a market that is showing a tendency to roll over on stocks in established downtrends. Seasonal mining difficulties coming up... in what looks to be a very wet wet season. Just a few reasons to get short... plus, ERA reacts badly to any market correction...
> 
> ...




Lolza...

I really should have stayed short. 

Looks completely ****ed now. Where to from here?........


----------



## Sean K (4 January 2009)

Miraculous recovery. Another stock that would have paid a handsome return with some courage to buy the capitulation hitting lower support. Or, you could have lost your pants. In retrospect, what a miss. 

Media seem to be jumping back on the U bandwagon recently with a few reports of POU bottomed and recovering. ERA and PDN specifically mentioned as ok Aussie U plays.

http://www.news.com.au/business/story/0,27753,24867933-462,00.html


----------



## michael_selway (4 January 2009)

kennas said:


> Miraculous recovery. Another stock that would have paid a handsome return with some courage to buy the capitulation hitting lower support. Or, you could have lost your pants. In retrospect, what a miss.
> 
> Media seem to be jumping back on the U bandwagon recently with a few reports of POU bottomed and recovering. ERA and PDN specifically mentioned as ok Aussie U plays.
> 
> http://www.news.com.au/business/story/0,27753,24867933-462,00.html




HI









*ERA - Earnings and Dividends Forecast (cents per share) 
2007 2008 2009 2010 
EPS 41.7 53.2 127.7 187.8 
DPS 20.0 21.0 88.0 72.1 *

*PDN - Earnings and Dividends Forecast (cents per share) 
2008 2009 2010 2011 
EPS -6.2 6.4 20.5 32.7 
DPS 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0* 



> Scrip in Perth-based Black Range soared 40 per cent yesterday after it announced that Canadian mining giant Uranium One would help finance the development of its Taylor Ranch project in the US.






thx

MS


----------



## Aurum (24 February 2009)

Is Rio's announcement today clicky good news for ERA? As ERA is 60% owned by RIO it would make sense for them to use ERA for this exploration. 

Is this a reasonable assumption or am I way off the mark.

Aurum.


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## Sean K (24 February 2009)

Aurum said:


> Is Rio's announcement today clicky good news for ERA? As ERA is 60% owned by RIO it would make sense for them to use ERA for this exploration.
> 
> Is this a reasonable assumption or am I way off the mark.
> 
> Aurum.



They probably wouldn't use ERA as such, but perhaps poach some key exploration staff from there or from Rossing. Or, start a new unit. I don't think ERA has done any exploration outside of Ranger and Jabiluka.


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## Aurum (17 March 2009)

A very clear breakout above $20 today and up nearly 6% but on small volume. It's been threatening to breakout for a while, whilst the rest of the market was falling apart. Or maybe it is just participating in the current DCB.

Aurum.


----------



## $20shoes (21 May 2009)

This one just goes from strength to strength...
Another important break today. Could be in a Wave 5 though? ( Elliot wave illiterate)


----------



## Kryzz (27 July 2009)

Anybody got any fundamental opinions one this one? Nearing all time highs, time to reverse? Attached is the chart


----------



## DVEOUS (2 August 2009)

It will be interesting to see if ERA SP rises in the next few days, thanks to the exposure on "Inside Business" this morning.

...just like it did with Karoon Gas a few weeks ago.


----------



## GaryS (9 November 2009)

Noticed that Roger Montgomery (your money your call) gave this company an intrinsic value of $34 for this year, and a projected value of $40 for 2010. 

Anyone have an idea how he would have come up with these valuations?


----------



## condog (9 November 2009)

GaryS said:


> Noticed that Roger Montgomery (your money your call) gave this company an intrinsic value of $34 for this year, and a projected value of $40 for 2010.
> 
> Anyone have an idea how he would have come up with these valuations?




He specifically said it was from a number of analysts.....

Knowing Roger they would be reliable fundamental analysts or he would not be quoting them....

They would be based on forward projections of all figures .... there ROE graphs look good and tidy for projections, but their net profit figures took a dent in 2009.

ERA stated production 2009 figures to be in line with normal figures, so they have done projections based on the 2007ish production with 2009 prices Id say...
ERA fundamentals look very strong. The company has a history of rising ROE, no capital raising, good % retained profits , strong equity ratio, low liabilities, 0% debt to equity.

Disclaimer - I do not own this stock. But will be soon.


----------



## robusta (25 March 2010)

Is ERA the forgotten energy stock?
They have a great ROE, no debt (in fact the opposite heaps of cash) and are supplying the lowest carbon emiting baseload electricity generation in the world. In the last decade the sp increased 10 fold.
Disclaimer I own this stock


----------



## dhaines (21 May 2010)

ERA in the green. Cant believe it. Nuclear energy looks like its set to take off. thank god the stock market took notice before i lost any more money. was so close to selling today


----------



## robusta (16 March 2011)

Very suprised to be buying ERA again, I sold in May last year and thought I would not be back.

Bought in two parcels yesterday, average price $7.46


----------



## robusta (19 March 2011)

robusta said:


> Very suprised to be buying ERA again, I sold in May last year and thought I would not be back.
> 
> Bought in two parcels yesterday, average price $7.46




Could not decide if I was being really smart or really stooopid. Afraid it may have been the latter so sold on Friday for a small profit.


----------



## zac (3 April 2011)

Im surprised by this stock,
Ive done some calculations to work out the companies Intrinsic Value, and get it at under $5.
I guess its due to the low profit for the year.

Any ideas?
I just thought it would be worth more given how much it was.

I do have its value for next year tho at over $11


----------



## noirua (4 April 2011)

zac said:


> Im surprised by this stock,
> Ive done some calculations to work out the companies Intrinsic Value, and get it at under $5.
> I guess its due to the low profit for the year.
> 
> ...




It's in the uranium sector and the uranium price was heading strongly north and then Japan. The Ranger Mine was affected by weather in the East and who knows, it could happen more often than past history shows.


----------



## skc (4 April 2011)

zac said:


> Im surprised by this stock,
> Ive done some calculations to work out the companies Intrinsic Value, and get it at under $5.
> I guess its due to the low profit for the year.
> 
> ...




There is an underlying premise when it comes to valuing stocks using intrinsic value - the profit must be consistent in the past and fairly predicable for the future.

Using intrinsic value method to value any resource stocks and you will run into the trouble of predicting future commodity prices. 

And if you think you can predict commodity prices with any sort of reliability then you should simply trade that commodity, rather than the miner of such.


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## reve1ati0n (20 April 2011)

So how low will it go...i'm predicting this stock will drop to below 6 dollars but will it drop below 5 hmmm.


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## laurie (20 April 2011)

ERA uses long term contracts you need to find out what that is for e.g. if they have set the price at say $50/lb and the price increase to $80/lb tuff by the same token if the price falls below $50/lb its all smiles


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## rickyroo (3 May 2011)

reve1ati0n said:


> So how low will it go...i'm predicting this stock will drop to below 6 dollars but will it drop below 5 hmmm.




I just looked and it's at 5.04...  Steadily falling.


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## pixel (10 May 2011)

rickyroo said:


> I just looked and it's at 5.04...  Steadily falling.



 That was last week.
Seems to me we've found support and are on our way back up above $5.
I started a new position at $4.95 and intend to add to it if $5.12 is broken later this week.


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## LifeChoices (10 May 2011)

pixel said:


> That was last week.
> Seems to me we've found support and are on our way back up above $5.
> I started a new position at $4.95 and intend to add to it if $5.12 is broken later this week.
> View attachment 42843




My two bit, half baked trading system is suggesting the same thing - but support is still looking weak.


----------



## pixel (11 May 2011)

LifeChoices said:


> My two bit, half baked trading system is suggesting the same thing - but support is still looking weak.



 ... and I meant to say Thank you for mentioning ERA in that other thread.
It was your reference that made me have another look at ERA's chart. I had traded it some time last year and dropped it off my portfolio for obvious reasons.
Cheers, Pixel.


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## burglar (11 May 2011)

Why so little mention of the elephant in the room?

http://www.australianews.com.au/sto...&storyid=d20abc46-f21c-4ff7-9063-025b7f723eae


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## Mrs P (25 May 2011)

*ERA.... Have i wasted my money?*

hi, id welcome anyones view re ERA stock as i have a bit of $$$ in this stock and now wondering if ive stuffed up.
Im a newbie so please use words of one-two syllables please


----------



## KurwaJegoMac (25 May 2011)

*Re: ERA.... Have i wasted my money?*



Mrs P said:


> hi, id welcome anyones view re ERA stock as i have a bit of $$$ in this stock and now wondering if ive stuffed up.
> Im a newbie so please use words of one-two syllables please




Hello Mrs P and welcome to the forum. 

Every stock that's traded on the ASX has its' own forum thread - so questions regarding a particular stock should be directed there. In your case, the thread for ERA is found here:

https://www.aussiestockforums.com/forums/showthread.php?t=2117&highlight=ERA

Please note that we cannot provide advice specific to you as this is illegal (unless you have the appropriate qualifications, which most here do not). So we cannot tell you whether you should be invested in the stock or not.

However if you are seeking general advice/views on the performance of the stock then i'm sure the users in the ERA thread will be more than happy to oblige.


----------



## laurie (25 May 2011)

*Re: ERA.... Have i wasted my money?*



KurwaJegoMac said:


> Hello Mrs P and welcome to the forum.
> 
> Every stock that's traded on the ASX has its' own forum thread - so questions regarding a particular stock should be directed there. In your case, the thread for ERA is found here:
> 
> ...




huh! this is the ERA thread


----------



## KurwaJegoMac (25 May 2011)

*Re: ERA.... Have i wasted my money?*



laurie said:


> huh! this is the ERA thread




It is now - a moderator moved the original thread in the beginner's forum to this one


----------



## skc (25 May 2011)

*Re: ERA.... Have i wasted my money?*



Mrs P said:


> hi, id welcome anyones view re ERA stock as i have a bit of $$$ in this stock and now wondering if ive stuffed up.
> Im a newbie so please use words of one-two syllables please




Mrs P,

Here are some of my views on ERA...

Cons 
- Very negative sentiment against uranium stocks in general since Japan earthquake.
- Big problems at their mine - low grades, weather impact and potential costly clean up of big pool of radioactive water.
- They still need to satisfy their contract to deliver uranium to their customers - they have to buy in the spot market at a loss.

Pros
- Nuclear energy is going to be around and in general people tend to think there will be a supply shortage down the track.
- Not sure things can get any more negative on ERA than now.
- RIO is a major shareholder and they might do a takeover.

So what does it all mean to the future prospects of ERA? You will have to judge for yourself.


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## laurie (26 May 2011)

You have left out one important point ERA is sitting on the second largest Uranium mine in the world behind Olympic Dam, Jabiluka very high grades


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## Mrs P (26 May 2011)

thanks for the feedback..

gotta admit that the "pro's" were what i based the purchase on and before the issues in Japan caused the "cons"

Although im very new to this i still have a gut feeling based on demand, quality of output  (longer term after they have mopped up  ) that the shares will be good,
Unfortunately it doesn't help me with my short-term trading model... 
"in-and-out in 3 months"

Frustrating that pretty much everyday there seems to be a 1-3% decline in the price, especially as its my own money thats locked up.


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## zac (26 May 2011)

I looked at getting into ERA during the Japan crisis. I have ERA trading well above its value though.
I think longterm uranium will be in high demand. From what I understand, places like India and China will be relying on Uranium as energy sources.


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## ginar (26 May 2011)

zac said:


> I looked at getting into ERA during the Japan crisis. I have ERA trading well above its value though.
> I think longterm uranium will be in high demand. From what I understand, places like India and China will be relying on Uranium as energy sources.





this is the murphys law stock , that chart is scary >>>>>  stage 5 disaster . everything that could go wrong has . i dont think jabiluka is a high probability to go ahead  . earnings forecasts for full year 2011 are next to zero and id be surprised if its not negative . one analyst has em pegged for negative 29.4c . buying into this is gambling imo .


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## laurie (26 May 2011)

Look the main problem with ERA is water management and getting water treatment up and running not the ore or lack of it with so much water around authorities refuses to allow ERA to pump water out the main pit into the river system the huge amount of water will dilute the pit water to a safe level thats where the problem lies


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## burglar (26 May 2011)

How bad is it? That all depends which words you Google!


http://antinuclear.net/2011/05/10/e...uranium-mine-despite-floods-share-price-fall/


----------



## skc (12 October 2011)

*Re: ERA.... Have i wasted my money?*



skc said:


> Cons
> - Very negative sentiment against uranium stocks in general since Japan earthquake.
> - Big problems at their mine - low grades, weather impact and potential costly clean up of big pool of radioactive water.
> - They still need to satisfy their contract to deliver uranium to their customers - they have to buy in the spot market at a loss.
> ...




Following the footsteps of PDN and outdoing them by a long shot, ERA announced a 12-for-7 capital raising at a hair-raising $1.53...

For the record they were trading at $27 ~2 years ago, and ~$5 when I said "Not sure things can get any more negative on ERA than now". Turns out the answer is a big YES.


----------



## robusta (12 October 2011)

*Re: ERA.... Have i wasted my money?*



skc said:


> Following the footsteps of PDN and outdoing them by a long shot, ERA announced a 12-for-7 capital raising at a hair-raising $1.53...
> 
> For the record they were trading at $27 ~2 years ago, and ~$5 when I said "Not sure things can get any more negative on ERA than now". Turns out the answer is a big YES.




With the BHP Olympic Dam expansion, the supply side of the uranium equation will not get any tighter in the future.  

ERA's days as the low cost producer are gone.


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## Taltan (19 October 2011)

*Re: ERA.... Have i wasted my money?*

Does anyone know the level at which RIO are participating in the capital raising?
Are they buying all their entitlements?

I imagine the iron ore sales whilst I write this could probably fund the acquisition


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## Taltan (20 October 2011)

And now RIO overpays market prices to buy a uranium miner. Given the huge % of ERA owned by RIO would it not have been cheaper for RIO to have a smaller ERA raising?

http://www.theage.com.au/business/w...canadian-uranium-explorer-20111020-1m8oj.html


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## gogo419 (7 November 2011)

what are peoples thoughts on picking up some ERA stock in the current market? Im looking longer term over the next 2-3 years for share price appreciaiton?

Cheers JB


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## notting (15 November 2011)

ERA is sitting on the second largest Uranium mine in the world behind Olympic Dam, Jabiluka is in the Northern Territory with very high grades.

At first glance it's unbelievable that it would be down today given Australia is now going to be selling Uranium to India who intend to use Uranium to generate over 40% of their power.  Rembering India is as big as China!!

At second glance with a succesful fill of it's failed capital rasing at $1.53 as it's announcement this morning it's believable that it is 2% down on this game changing day for Ausi Uranium selling.

At third glance RIO owns 80% of ERA and took up all of it's entitlements in the rasing.

At fourth glance.  It was trading higher than $6 before Fukushima.

At fifth glance the world is entering a financial catastrophie unless Germany allows ECB to print.

At sixth glance for Germany to agree to ECB to print bonds will take too long to prevent a meltdown in the mean time.

I baught any way.

Tight stop in place.


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## Out Too Soon (5 December 2011)

Nice cheque in the mail (dividend) & now the sp is heading north. Got a long way to go to reach pre-Fukushima levels though (& a long way to go to reach post-Fukushima levels when smart-a**es like me bought ). Still, I think the India decision will help a lot


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## skc (5 December 2011)

Out Too Soon said:


> Nice cheque in the mail (dividend) & now the sp is heading north. Got a long way to go to reach pre-Fukushima levels though (& a long way to go to reach post-Fukushima levels when smart-a**es like me bought ). Still, I think the India decision will help a lot




Last dividend was paid in Aug 2010 according to WebIress.

That's a pretty slow mail.


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## Tristan576 (31 January 2012)

Any thoughts on this stock as of late?


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## ADIOZ (18 February 2012)

At the current price, $1.28, I find it to be still expensive. Looking at the previous 10 years history, ERA has not been adding value for its shareholders. In another word, all of its previous earnings has been used up for capital expenditure. Even though it has been distributing dividend, it lately asked for more huge capital to do expansion as its current mining location has been depleted.

I think it should have not distributed any dividend. That way, ERA can have the tax benefit.

At the same time, as in any resource industry, the value of ERA is linked to the price of its uranium. Uranium is in high demand, even after the Fukushima disaster and the announcement that Germany will be shutting down its nuclear plant. Uranium demand FAR outstrip the supply. So, why doesn't its price goes up? I think the answer lies in USA and its allies. They control the enrichment of Uranium. without this enrichment, the uranium from the mine, cannot be used directly for power generation. Also, another factor is that because nuclear power plant buy its enriched uranium with contract lasting for years with a standard price from standard suppliers such as ERA.

I also believe that currently, nuclear power is the future power generation as it is very efficient and can produce huge amount of power to replace fossil fuel generated power. Nuclear technology is in its infancy as there are theoretical nuclear technology in development, such as the fast breeder, that would and could replace all of the fossil fuel generated power and last hundreds of years into the future. But, fast breeder and other technology has been in research for a very long time with no successful implementation in sight.

In short, ERA is a risky holding.


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## Garpal Gumnut (18 April 2012)

ERA has taken off over the last few days, I bought when it was in the doldrums. Worth a watch. For the fundamentalists a very upbeat report 2 days ago. 

gg


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## Boggo (18 April 2012)

My modified Turtle breakout has been triggered by ERA a few times now with no result.
It does seem to be forming a base recently so maybe its the beginning of a new trend ?

(click to expand)


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## mathias679 (18 April 2012)

absolutely dominated over the last few days, up around 30%, possibly initiated by the positive report regarding ranger.


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## notting (18 April 2012)

A broker upgraded it by 100% and they announced they can go underground  to overcome the giant dam issues plaguing them.  Market seemed to like all that!!
Doesn't say much for RIO who should have snapped the rest of it up before all this happened.  Could package it up again and offload it again in a couple of years time for a fortune!


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## Garpal Gumnut (18 April 2012)

notting said:


> A broker upgraded it by 100% and they announced they can go underground  to overcome the giant dam issues plaguing them.  Market seemed to like all that!!
> Doesn't say much for RIO who should have snapped the rest of it up before all this happened.  Could package it up again and offload it again in a couple of years time for a fortune!




It says little for the brokers when they have to log on to ASF to work out a stock is going up.

gg


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## notting (18 April 2012)

Garpal Gumnut said:


> It says little for the brokers when they have to log on to ASF to work out a stock is going up.



 Whatcha smoken their GG??


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## Garpal Gumnut (18 April 2012)

notting said:


> Whatcha smoken their GG??




Thanks notting

I do not generally deal with "brokers" , "real estate agents " or "used car salespersons"

I have been set in ERA since mid March as some of my indigenous mates told me a lot of white fellas were crawling over ERA assets in suits, with ipads, samsung cell phones etc etc, the usual useless bastards they send out to sites from broker houses. I was in for av 1.275 

It is also a well known fact that the assets have dried out.

Last Friday it was obvious on the price range and volume that these silly bastards had managed to put their reports in so I topped up again at 1.30

I topped up again on Monday at 1.415.

I'm just sitting at the moment.

It is just a huge joke that brokers today pitch it as a buy.

If they cared about their clients they would have done it last week.

It is a huge buy.

gg


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## stevenxu33 (3 May 2012)

ERA up 8% today, anyone know why?


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## Out Too Soon (7 January 2013)

stevenxu33 said:


> ERA up 8% today, anyone know why?




Like many Uranium stocks ERA is greatly under-valued & waiting for Fukushima to dim in the memories & the share market in general to come out of the doldrums. I think some are just taking long term positions while the sp is still asleep. (could be a long wait) 

(PS: skc, I just noticed that mistake way back where I said I got a div chq, don't know what happened but you were right, hasn't been divs for ages I'm curiously checking my records to try & find where my mix up was, I'm guessing I got a chq from one of the other uranium stocks I hold. Must be getting senile


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## G Gekko (3 May 2013)

Just wondering how others rate ERA as of today? I've been considering buying as I too rate the business as undervalued and I think with the depressed price of Uranium it could be a good time to buy. However their balance sheet is not doing too well and they've expressed they cannot afford to expand which doesn't bode well for my confidence in _their_ confidence for the future.

They're still pretty attractive with low debt though.


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## chops_a_must (3 May 2013)

G Gekko said:


> Just wondering how others rate ERA as of today? I've been considering buying as I too rate the business as undervalued and I think with the depressed price of Uranium it could be a good time to buy. However their balance sheet is not doing too well and they've expressed they cannot afford to expand which doesn't bode well for my confidence in _their_ confidence for the future.
> 
> They're still pretty attractive with low debt though.




They are in trouble IMO.

Not a whole lot happening out there.

Maybe once the money stops flowing to the T/Os...


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## So_Cynical (3 May 2013)

G Gekko said:


> Just wondering how others rate ERA as of today? I've been considering buying as I too rate the business as undervalued and I think with the depressed price of Uranium it could be a good time to buy. However their balance sheet is not doing too well and they've expressed they cannot afford to expand which doesn't bode well for my confidence in _their_ confidence for the future.
> 
> They're still pretty attractive with low debt though.




Watching and waiting...good to see im not alone.

Its hard to figure where the bottom is with ERA, do know that they are trading at about a 33% discount to the last cap raising and yet holding pretty much all the cash they raised back then (2011) its a punt considering that they don't actually have a mine at the moment..and don't have the necessary paperwork yet for the deeps project.

And there burning cash and plan to continue to do so..MC roughly at Cash backing and yet they hold considerable assets that are worth considerably more if they actually have a fully permitted mine or 2...its a genuine punt.

I will continue to watch and wait.


----------



## G Gekko (3 May 2013)

So_Cynical said:


> Watching and waiting...good to see im not alone.
> 
> Its hard to figure where the bottom is with ERA, do know that they are trading at about a 33% discount to the last cap raising and yet holding pretty much all the cash they raised back then (2011) its a punt considering that they don't actually have a mine at the moment..and don't have the necessary paperwork yet for the deeps project.
> 
> ...




And here I was thinking they had at least one mine. Must be just a project at the moment. I definitely wouldn't want to buy in unless I see some cash flowing. A profit would be nice too. Unfortunately it doesn't meet my criteria at the moment so I won't buy but it looks like it could be an attractive corp if they could get up and running.


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## ricee007 (8 December 2013)

Wonder if the latest incident will effect price or not?

ERA is down playing it... but, anything that gives the "Traditional Owners" more ammunition has got to be a negative long term.


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## So_Cynical (8 December 2013)

ricee007 said:


> Wonder if the latest incident will effect price or not?
> 
> ERA is down playing it... but, anything that gives the "Traditional Owners" more ammunition has got to be a negative long term.




Negatives being negatives i would expect a fall in the share price on the open tomorrow.


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## ricee007 (10 December 2013)

So_Cynical said:


> Negatives being negatives i would expect a fall in the share price on the open tomorrow.



Did definitely take a hit
-16.5c on Monday, -13c so far today.

From a base of $1.30, now $1.000


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## pattypoo (13 March 2014)

ERA is starting to make a comeback - up from $1.21 to $1.65 in a matter of 20 days.

That is equivalent to a 37.5% increase in 20 days.

I've been reading a few articles that uranium is picking up again.

Is it time to invest into the uranium market ?

http://www.marketwatch.com/story/re...stocks-higher-2014-03-11?reflink=MW_news_stmp


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## pattypoo (13 March 2014)

By the way, I do not endorse or take responsibility for material in the hyper-linked sites.


I just want to know what people on aussie stock forum think about this?


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## VSntchr (12 June 2015)

Uh oh!

From Rio today "Rio is considering a US$300m impariment relating to its shareholding in ERA".
The market certainly gave every holder collectively about a US$300m impairment after that 62.5c smackdown.

Big collapse for ERA today...but with a market cap of ~$350m I can't see much cause for a bounce? 

Some ramblings as I try to assess the situation: (apologies for any oversights)

They are able to process stockpiled ores of $146m as at Dec 31 and had cash of $293m + $12m receivables.

Looking at non-current assets they have:

Inventory $85m
Undeveloped Property $203m (who wants to buy this!?)
PPE $358m - (~$296m is plant and equipment - can this be sold for BV?)
Tax Assets $175m (worthless without profits, maybe value for a shell takeover?)
Trust fund investment $66.7m

$90m of the $146m stockpile is finished product.
We can say the CA are worth $450m. 
Then non-current assets we can say maybe $85+$100+$300+$66.7 = $552m

So a total asset value of $1bn if you think they can sell the undeveloped property for $100m and achieve close BV for Prop and Equip.

Current liabilities (without provision) knock off $111m.

Then you have to account for rehab of the land which is $40m CL and $480 NCL = $520m.
Throw in another $4m for Employee benefits and you have $524m that the company is required to pay out.

So my very very basic estimate of the equity value comes to around $367m. 
FWIW, current market price with 517.73 shares on issue implies mc of $347.

A company disclaimer worth taking note of _"The ultimate cost of rehabilitation is uncertain and can vary in response to many factors. It is reasonably possible that outcomes within the next financial year that are different from the current cost estimates could require a material adjustment (increase or decrease) to the
rehabilitation provision for the Ranger Project Area."_
One positive note was that the Dec 14 report showed a $75m reduction in the provision due to updated technology.

Another risk to the downside, is that the equity value above does not take into account any burning of cash through operations since Dec 14. FY14 burned about $64m!!! This may be a bit pessimistic to extrapolate out given the difficulties experienced in this year involving having to buy Uranium to fulfil contracts due to a shutdown of processing. They will also have reduced expenditure going forward without the feasibility study continuing. 

Note: There is also some option value on the outside chance that the land ever does make it past feasibility stage/gain traditional owner approval rights.


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## skc (12 June 2015)

VSntchr said:


> Big collapse for ERA today...but with a market cap of ~$350m I can't see much cause for a bounce?
> 
> Some ramblings as I try to assess the situation: (apologies for any oversights)
> 
> ...




I think you are way too generous with the asset value calculation. For a start, the plant and equipment won't be sold for anywhere near the book value. No one disassemble a processing plant and move it elsewhere. And uranimum processing plant probably can't be used easily in other operations (guessing only, due to contamination and that faint green glow). It can at best be sold for scrap (if that). Also, if the Ranger 3 Deep expansion ever gets going, it'd need those plant and equipment already on site. So if you give it option value, you can't realise the PPE.

By RIO's announcement, it's clear that there's a chance that ERA simply doesn't have enough asset / future cash flow to pay for all the rehabiliation works. So I think it's pretty safe to estimate the equity value to be zero.

The option value, however, probably has a pretty wild range. ERA in its heydays (~2008/09) had a market cap ~$8B and generated some $400m operating cash flow. So if everything works out and the expansion project somehow gets going in 6-8 years time, AND that uranium market actually recovers, there might be some value afterall.

BOC is an example dormant copper mine in PNG... it some how still trades at $150m equity value despite no mining operation since 1989. It was trading @ $800m back in 2010/11. So option value can be quite high, although I really don't know about the specifics behind BOC.

I can't really offer a firm number on the option value... but my guess is the share price could sink a lot more on flow alone before finding a floor. We only traded 10m shares today.


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## VSntchr (13 June 2015)

skc said:


> I think you are way too generous with the asset value calculation. For a start, the plant and equipment won't be sold for anywhere near the book value. No one disassemble a processing plant and move it elsewhere. And uranimum processing plant probably can't be used easily in other operations (guessing only, due to contamination and that faint green glow). It can at best be sold for scrap (if that). Also, if the Ranger 3 Deep expansion ever gets going, it'd need those plant and equipment already on site. So if you give it option value, you can't realise the PPE.
> 
> By RIO's announcement, it's clear that there's a chance that ERA simply doesn't have enough asset / future cash flow to pay for all the rehabiliation works. So I think it's pretty safe to estimate the equity value to be zero.
> 
> ...




Thanks SKC. I was purposely trying to be optimistic in my assessment above, kind of a devils advocate given my position. Traded it short through the day and held a small pos into the weekend. To be honest though, the entire process has been more experimental for me as the sizes are immaterial to my usual trading - my knowledge of the sector is quite limited. 

That's interesting about BOC. I haven't had much experience with stocks holding such high market value on option value alone. Agree on the uncertainly around option value for ERA. The % chance for success is low, but the payoff quite large if they ever get going again. I can't see any positive catalysts in the foreseeable future and any buyers hoping to buy this option value certainly have a loooong time to get set. Putting myself in the shoes of a long term investor, I could not justify sitting in this for 6+ years waiting. I would be selling now, getting the tax credit prior to June 30 and then keeping it on a watchlist. 

This has been in a range of $1.10-$1.40 (with a few failed breaks either way) since 2012. That's a pretty long time to consolidate...

Looks like their was a bit of covering on the close yesterday. Shortman only shows 2.2% shorts, so holders shouldn't really be holding their breath for a squeeze...the spurt on the close could have been some of the prop guys covering their intra-day plays :


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## skc (13 June 2015)

VSntchr said:


> Thanks SKC. I was purposely trying to be optimistic in my assessment above, kind of a devils advocate given my position. Traded it short through the day and held a small pos into the weekend. To be honest though, the entire process has been more experimental for me as the sizes are immaterial to my usual trading - my knowledge of the sector is quite limited.
> 
> That's interesting about BOC. I haven't had much experience with stocks holding such high market value on option value alone. Agree on the uncertainly around option value for ERA. The % chance for success is low, but the payoff quite large if they ever get going again. I can't see any positive catalysts in the foreseeable future and any buyers hoping to buy this option value certainly have a loooong time to get set. Putting myself in the shoes of a long term investor, I could not justify sitting in this for 6+ years waiting. I would be selling now, getting the tax credit prior to June 30 and then keeping it on a watchlist.
> 
> ...




Good article from AFR. May be the option value should be a lot closer to zero too.

http://www.afr.com/business/mining/rio-tinto-signs-ranger-uranium-mine-death-warrant-20150612-ghmp9j



> Rio has signalled the end for Australia's most productive uranium mine by telling ERA that it will not invest in the 35-year-old operation's proposed lifesaver, the Ranger 3 Deeps underground project.






> That pudding has been put to proof with Rio offering ERA a "conditional credit facility" should existing or future cash reserves fail to cover the required rehabilitation effort. The condition is telling. The credit will come only if ERA does no more work on R3D.
> 
> Importantly, given current low uranium prices persist, it looks like that support will be needed. ERA is presently sitting on $293 million in cash and has $63.9 million invested in the Ranger rehabilitation trust. ERA's most recent annual report puts the future rehab liability at $525 million and its potential unfunded liability at $461 million.


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## joeno (16 June 2015)

This stock just keeps dropping. Reckon it's worth a buy at 0.3 for the asset value alone?


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## skc (16 June 2015)

joeno said:


> This stock just keeps dropping. Reckon it's worth a buy at 0.3 for the asset value alone?




Describe the assets and the likely buyers of them...


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## skyQuake (16 June 2015)

skc said:


> Describe the assets and the likely buyers of them...




China National Nuclear - they can take a strategic view of it and buy the asset for close to nothing (say era at 5c) as a optionality play.

Where there's a will there's a way!:


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## skc (16 June 2015)

skyQuake said:


> China National Nuclear - they can take a strategic view of it and buy the asset for close to nothing (say era at 5c) as a optionality play.
> 
> Where there's a will there's a way!:




That will do me as a price target!

ERA short has been free money for 3 days...


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## VSntchr (22 June 2015)

Any falling knife punters have been hit with a bullet this morning with the Chairman and two other non-executive  independent directors leaving due to "a range of factors since the June 11 announcement"

http://www.asx.com.au/asxpdf/20150622/pdf/42z9wvk7tgccgh.pdf


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## joeno (22 June 2015)

VSntchr said:


> Any falling knife punters have been hit with a bullet this morning with the Chairman and two other non-executive  independent directors leaving due to "a range of factors since the June 11 announcement"
> 
> http://www.asx.com.au/asxpdf/20150622/pdf/42z9wvk7tgccgh.pdf




Oh yes ERA rebounded 3% this morning. What a bullet 

Anyways this news is neutral at best, no? Directors resigning on their own volition sounds like it signals even harsher times for the company.


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## VSntchr (22 June 2015)

joeno said:


> Oh yes ERA rebounded 3% this morning. What a bullet
> 
> Anyways this news is neutral at best, no? Directors resigning on their own volition sounds like it signals even harsher times for the company.




Volume ultra light, so lets see how it goes for the rest of the week 

Also in the announcement is a pending write-down.
Hard to see this as neutral? Who wants to become chairman of this company now? Can't imagine the worlds best are lining up to be recruited!


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## skc (22 June 2015)

VSntchr said:


> Volume ultra light, so lets see how it goes for the rest of the week
> 
> Also in the announcement is a pending write-down.
> Hard to see this as neutral? Who wants to become chairman of this company now? Can't imagine the worlds best are lining up to be recruited!




On a positive note.... less cash burn?


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## VSntchr (22 June 2015)

skc said:


> On a positive note.... less cash burn?




They are certainly sticking to their word on conserving cash


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## joeno (22 June 2015)

The writedown is estimated at $300m for Rio's 68% stake...

Reckon this value is understated? This would compute the value of the stock to around 45c


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## notting (22 June 2015)

Hard for RIO to justify not coming in and moping up the rest at it's current value of only 180mill.


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## greggles (4 February 2019)

According to their December 2018 Quarter Operations Review, ERA produced 1,999 tonnes of uranium oxide in 2018. Production in the December 2018 quarter was 613 tonnes of uranium oxide compared to 544 tonnes in the September 2018 quarter.

After a shocker of a 2018, and with the uranium price starting to look healthier, has ERA finally found bottom?


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## qldfrog (5 February 2019)

Noted the era activity
Amazed that this company is still alive...so much liabilities.i need to dig more info on the history and current status i thought they were just exploiting the tailing stocks


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