# PDI - Predictive Discovery



## System (16 December 2010)

Predictive Discovery Limited (PDI) is a gold and uranium exploration company with projects in Burkina Faso (West Africa) and Australia. 

http://www.predictivediscovery.com


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## springhill (6 July 2012)

PDI is one to be looked at for the pedigree of its directors alone.

Shares on Issue 125 Million
Cash Position $ 2 million
Enterprise Value $10 million
Debt Nil
Top 20 Shareholders (%) 46%

PROJECTS

*Bonsiega Project*
 Dave Prospect, Laterite Hill Grid :
• 10m at 18g/t Au from 74m including 2m at 74g/t Au (highest grade to date on Bonsiega Project)
• 10m at 2.5g/t Au from 88m
•Æ’28m at 1.6g/t Au from 30m
•Æ’24m at 1.1g/t Au from 0m
•Æ’12m at 1.5g/t Au from 56m
• 26m at 5.0g/t Au from 26m including 2m at 31g/t Au
• 38m at 1.3g/t Au from surface including 4m at 5.6g/t Au
• 24m at 1.9g/t Au from 4m
• 8m at 3.3 g/t Au from 46m
• 22m at 1.0g/t Au from 44m
• 12m at 1.7g/t Au from 16m
• 8m at 2.0g/t Au from 72m


 Laterite Hill Prospect, Laterite Hill Grid:
• 26m at 1.2g/t Au from 71m including 14m at 1.8g/t Au
• 22m at 1.4g/t Au from 48m
• 52m at 2.1g/t Au from 36m including 20m at 4.8g/t Au and 2m at 24g/t Au
 Tamboana Prospect :
• 5m at 5.1g/t Au from 36m including 1m at 22g/t Au
 Koundi Zone (new discovery):
• 4m at 5.7g/t Au from 76m (stopped in mineralisation)
 Prospect 71 (new discovery):
• 32m at 1.7g/t Au from 26m including 24m at 2.1g/t Au
 Prospect 71 west (new discovery):
• 18m at 1.0g/t Au from 54m including 6m at 2.3g/t Au (stopped in low grade mineralisation)
• 4m at 7.1g/t Au from 20m


*Bangaba Project (PDI earning 95%) - Solna
*The Solna Prospect covers a 600 metre long zone of active artisanal workings where gold is being extracted from quartz veins that occur within sheared sections of a host granodiorite adjacent to a contact with metasedimentary rocks
Better gold intercepts included:
• 5.6m at 16g/t Au from 205.4m including 1m at 81g/t Au
• 2m at 11.5g/t Au including 1m at 17g/t Au
• 3m at 5.1g/t Au including 1m at 12g/t Au
• 2m at 7.3g/t Au including 1m at 13.7g/t Au

*Bangaba Project (PDI earning 95%) **- Tambiri*
The Company’s diamond drilling program was planned to test an area where previous diamond drilling by High River Gold had obtained four high grade intercepts – 16m at 10.6g/t Au, 2m at 56g/t Au, 5m at 16.4g/t Au and 2m at 9.9g/t Au. The drilling was also designed to obtain oriented drill core through the mineralisation.
Better intercepts included:
• 8.7m at 7.3g/t Au from 58m including 1m at 51g/t Au
• 9.3m at 4.9g/t Au from 62.7m including 2.3m at 17g/t Au
• 28.4m at 1.7g/t Au from 39.0m including 1m at 17.3g/t Au and 1m at 15.9g/t Au
• 13.3m at 3.6g/t Au from61m including 1.2 m at 22g/t Au

*Cape Clear Joint Venture*
PDI entered into a modest joint venture agreement during the Quarter on an Exploration Licence (EL4691 – Cape Clear) near its Skipton EL. The agreement was signed with Leviathan Resources Pty Ltd, a subsidiary of AuRico Gold Inc. Under the terms of this agreement, PDI may obtain a 100% interest in the EL by expenditure of $500,000. The vendor will receive a 1.5% royalty if a decision to mine is made. The minimum expenditure before withdrawal is $70,000.
The target is a large Stawell type gold mineralised system, as at Skipton. The area is of interest because it contains:
• Widespread alluvial and primary gold workings
• Evidence of Cambrian basalt domes (similar to those at Stawell), concealed below cover
• It is at the intersection between two very major structures
• Very little modern exploration has been carried out in the areas which PDI is targeting.



*Cote D’Ivoire*
Predictive Discovery Limited announces that it has signed an agreement for the acquisition of a
gold exploration permit in Cote D’Ivoire, known as Komboro (subject to grant). Under the terms of the
agreement, PDI may earn up to a 90% interest in the permit.
While Predictive Discovery is taking this initial step into Cote D’Ivoire, its primary focus remains on the
Bonsiega and Bangaba Projects in eastern Burkina Faso, where ongoing drilling programs continue to
make promising new gold discoveries.

The project is located in the north of Cote D’Ivoire with an area of 169 km². It covers part of a greenstone belt containing active artisanal workings and extensive gold geochemical anomalies. The project holder has reported a series of high grade values ranging up to 52g/t Au from reconnaissance soil and bedrock sampling, however, as far as PDI is aware, the area has not been drill tested.

What do we think gold bugs? In my LLP thread.


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## burglar (6 July 2012)

springhill said:


> ...
> What do we think gold bugs? In my LLP thread.




It's already there!


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## springhill (12 July 2012)

*Further high grade drill results from Bangaba*


New Bangaba RC drill results include:
*o Solna:*
 2m at 20.4g/t Au from 70m including 1m at 40g/t Au
 4m at 8.0g/t Au from 194m including 1m at 29g/t Au
 5m at 5.7g/t Au from 39m including 1m at 12g/t Au
 2m at 10g/t Au from 134m including 1m at 19g/t Au
 2m at 10g/t Au from 51m
 Analysis of 1m samples from 2m composites upgrades the SOLRC011 intersection from 6m at 12g/t Au from 40m to 6m at 20g/t Au including 1m at 111g/t Au
*o Tambiri:*
 20m at 2.3g/t Au from 48m including 1m at 15g/t Au
 20m at 2.2g/t Au from 138m including 4m at 7.0g/t Au
 12m at 1.7g/t Au from 88m
 12m at 1.4g/t Au from 96m
 12m at 1.4g/t Au from 108m
□ Both holes with 20m intercepts at Tambiri (listed above) extend mineralisation north and south with mineralisation still open in both directions and at depth.
□ Considerable scope for further discoveries along the 8km of mostly untested power auger gold bedrock geochemical anomalies along strike from Solna and Tambiri.


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## springhill (6 August 2012)

*PDI Acquires 100% of ElDore Joint Venture, Burkina Faso*

Predictive Discovery announce that it has signed an agreement with Stratos Resources, enabling PDI to move to 100% ownership of the four Burkina Faso permits that constitute the ElDore Joint Venture. These permits cover 621km² and include the Laterite Hill Gold Field, a 20km long zone of gold mineralisation, in which PDI has obtained excellent drill results over eight separate zones of gold mineralisation with a cumulative strike length of at least 8km to date.

This is an important strategic development for PDI in consolidating and simplifying the ownership of some of the key tenements in the Company’s extensive project portfolio.
SAT currently holds 27.9% of Birrimian Pty Ltd (“BPL”) the underlying owner of the four Joint Venture permits. PDI currently owns 72.1% of BPL. Subject to approval by an Extraordinary General Meeting of SAT shareholders, PDI will purchase SAT’s entire shareholding in BPL for the consideration of 13 million PDI shares. At the same time, SAT will make a cash payment to PDI of $140,000 in partial repayment of outstanding cash calls from the Joint Venture. Also, as part of this transaction, SAT and its Directors are contributing $160,000 to the shortfall in PDI’s recent entitlement issue which closed on 20th July 2012.

Other provisions of the agreement include:
□ SAT will be subject to a voluntary escrow agreement in relation to its PDI shares for 12 months after settlement.
□ SAT will have no further contribution obligations towards the ElDore Joint Venture and PDI will forgive all remaining outstanding Joint Venture payments owed by Stratos to PDI.
□ SAT and individuals or investment funds associated with that Company may contribute further to the PDI entitlement issue shortfall prior to the SAT Extraordinary General Meeting. If so, any contribution up to $140,000 will then be discounted from the $140,000 cash payment to PDI and the number of PDI shares issued under the agreement will be reduced by the value of that contribution, assuming an 8 cent PDI share price.


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## springhill (11 April 2013)

PDI are pulling impressive grades out of Bongou. It was one I used to keep a close eye on as having potential, but that all went by the wayside when work got busy. It did close up over 22% today and reached an intra day increase of 44%+

Drill results released today listed in announcement below.

*Outstanding High Grade Gold Drill Results from Bongou*
Highlights: 
● Results from the recent five hole RC drilling program at the Bongou Prospect, Burkina Faso in March, 2013 included: 
o BNGRC010: 48m at 4.3g/t Au from 34m incl. 16m at 9.7g/t Au, and 
o BNGRC010: 11m at 1.4g/t Au from 91m
o BNGRC014: 23m at 6.9g/t Au from 111m incl. 16m at 8.9g/t Au, and 
o BNGRC014 : 7m at 3.9g/t Au from 141m
True widths are estimated at 85-95% of the above down-hole intervals. 

● This program augments previous drill results including: 
o BNGR001: 54m at 2.1g/t Au from 36m incl. 20m at 4.8g/t Au 
o BNGR004: 10m at 7.4g/t Au from 47m. 
o BNGR003: 102m at 1.1 g/t Au from 4m incl. 14m at 3.0g/t Au 
o BNGR004: 70m at 1.2g/t Au from 62m incl. 18m at 1.8g/t Au

● The high grade zone is open to depth and may also plunge to the east. 
● Lower grade gold mineralisation up to 20m in true width is found
consistently close to and south of the high grade gold zone. 
● Gold mineralisation consists of an intensely silicified, quartz veined and pyritic microgranite. Recognition of the Bongou gold mineralisation style has opened up a large new area for exploration within the Bonsiega Gold Project permit group.
● Additional potential is indicated by: 
o Intermittent granite outcrops through areas of extensive thin cover extending over at least 3km of strike around Bongou with two priority target areas identified nearby to the west and East. 
o Two new target areas identified 4km and 10km north east of Bongou both on the 43km of Bongou fault strike within PDI’s exploration permits. 
● Ongoing exploration program includes additional drilling, ground geophysics and geochemical drilling of nearby targets and preliminary metallurgical test work of gold mineralised RC samples.

Now, I am far from being a gold bug and different gold in differing mineralisation types are harder and more costly to extract than others.
Is this the case here or has the market not paid attention to the drill results?

The number of shares on issue is a borderline case where I say there are too many on issue to suit my system, yet the market cap is a paltry $10m. Around $2m of that is cash, if that cash figure was around the $5m mark I would be finding it hard to resist a short term speculative holding.
As I have been burnt by that back in the day, I have learnt to stick to my criteria. Doesn't mean this won't be a kicker, of course. It almost certainly guarantees it will!

Anyone who can shed light on the mineralisation type and the vagaries of extraction would be much appreciated.


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## frugal.rock (15 April 2020)

Wow.
This has been in my watchlist for a while.
Expected a gap up on open...
didn't  expect 200% on open, and definitely didn't expect a high over 800% up.
Wow.

Could a, should a... didn't.
From whoa, to Go!
Watched from the sidelines, all chicken like...

Anyone holding or held/ out today?
Awesome stuff if you do.

F.Rock


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## Sean K (15 March 2021)

This thing is producing some decent intersections and grades. Any idea what happened in April last year?


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## greggles (15 March 2021)

kennas said:


> Any idea what happened in April last year?




The timing of the share price spike in April 2020 seems to be as a result of the announcement released on 15 April concerning the discovery of a gold deposit at the Kaninko Gold Project in Guinea.

Since then the share price action hasn't been terribly exciting. It's been pretty flat for the last six months.


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## Sean K (15 March 2021)

greggles said:


> The timing of the share price spike in April 2020 seems to be as a result of the announcement released on 15 April concerning the discovery of a gold deposit at the Kaninko Gold Project in Guinea.
> 
> Since then the share price action hasn't been terribly exciting. It's been pretty flat for the last six months.



So, Kaninko is now the Banakan Project above.

Are they ramping it a bit claiming potential for a 'multi-million-ounce' resource?

The intersections are OK but doesn't scream multi million to me yet. 

And they need to change their name, it's pretty lame. 

*Next Steps*

"Following receipt of results from the ongoing RC and DD drilling program, infill drilling will be carried out to support the Maiden Resource Estimate planned for mid-2021. Metallurgical test work is scheduled to begin in April 2021.

In addition to the ongoing RC and Diamond drilling, power auger drilling has been in progress since October last year. The focus of the power auger is to search for gold mineralisation in the areas around Bankan West, Bankan Creek and NE Bankan. Once results from the recently completed aeromagnetic survey are assessed, auger programs will be extended further to the north and south in the search for new satellite gold discoveries."


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## barney (15 March 2021)

kennas said:


> And they need to change their name, it's pretty lame.




Yeah tend to agree. Sounds more like a Bio-Tech Company  

Pretty handy Grades in the Announcement with a mixture of wide and nuggety strikes.

+ $65 million Market Cap  with around $13 million in the kitty at last December. Well placed for a Minnow (DNH)


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## greggles (15 March 2021)

I no longer really look at mining companies who have flagship or major projects based in African countries. Aside from all the corruption, there is the constant risk of armed rebellions, civil wars, tribal conflicts and sudden changes in government that can threaten the viability of major projects.

I have seen too many African based mining projects go under in the past due to social and political instability in African countries. These days I only look at companies with major projects in politically stable countries.


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## Sean K (15 March 2021)

greggles said:


> I no longer really look at mining companies who have flagship or major projects based in African countries. Aside from all the corruption, there is the constant risk of armed rebellions, civil wars, tribal conflicts and sudden changes in government that can threaten the viability of major projects.
> 
> I have seen too many African based mining projects go under in the past due to social and political instability in African countries. These days I only look at companies with major projects in politically stable countries.



I agree with this sentiment. There's tons of risk but I think a lot of that is factored into their SPs.


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## Sean K (15 April 2021)

NE Banakan looks like it's turning into something. Still quite wide intersections and good grades at depth. Broken up since 14 Mar post.


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## Sean K (31 May 2021)

This may be a new discovery. Hotcockers may have got hold of this today, looks overcooked.


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## Sean K (1 July 2021)

They keep finding more gold here. Outstanding grades for West Africa.

Was absolutely caned in June for no apparent reason. Maybe the drill results on the 17th were't as good as expected. 

MRE due in Q3 so coming out of 'discovery' phase.


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## Sean K (15 July 2021)

Interesting. Into a TH for exploration results. Must be good.

_The Company has received material exploration results and requests a trading halt of its securities to allow it time to analyse and report the data to the market._


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## Sean K (19 July 2021)

Wow, 50m at nearly 12g/t is exceptional.


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## greggles (19 July 2021)

The mineralisation is at depth but those grades and widths are worth going after. The market agrees. PDI has opened strongly this morning, up 47.37% to 14c.


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## Sean K (4 August 2021)

The re-rating from those 19 Jul results has held up. LRT's 4th highest holding average entry at about 3c should be good for their fund this quarter.






MRE set for late Sep. No idea what it could be. Hard to pluck dimensions with the different loads and depths. These are the last holes to be included in the MRE but they're still expanding the resource in many directions, especially down. 






I still think it's a dumb name for a resource company. 'Predictive Discovery'? It's not a guessing game.


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## Sean K (24 August 2021)

This consolidated quite a bit after the excitement about the 19 Jul hits. I thought it might have even gone back and filled the gap around 12c, but maybe this ann will give it a boost. Or not, looks pretty standard and in line with previous hits. Initial MRE by late Sep. Not sure what tonnage and grade the professionals have put on this as far as expectations go.


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## bk1 (24 August 2021)

Up almost 16% as we speak @kennas next step MRE ?


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## Sean K (24 August 2021)

bk1 said:


> Up almost 16% as we speak @kennas next step MRE ?



Yeah, they've finished all the drilling for an initial MRE. Not sure how much of the Creek will be included, but that continues to expand. 

Very hard to work out a tonnage but the grade will be somewhere between 1-1.5 g/t I guess. 

Tonnage for both NE Bankan and the Creek is pure guestimate due to the dip and gaps in the mineralised bits.

Looks like it's come off a bit sp wise.


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## finicky (24 August 2021)




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## Sean K (2 September 2021)

This report by Sprott was completed prior to the last two significant announcements post 19 Jul that will add to the MRE due by end of Sep. They don't include the Creek in their prediction as well which will be added to the MRE (I think). So, the Sprott guestimate of 1.8Moz @ 1.35g/t may be outdated now. There's got to be at least another 200Koz with the recent drill results and the Creek, so I'm tipping 2Moz Au. Not sure why I didn't buy this under 10c.


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## Sean K (6 September 2021)

Holy cow, WTF happened this morning?? No ann on anything. I almost bought this last week too... eeeek. Maybe now's the time to get in, but 20% off for no reason smells. Maybe someone with fat fingers on the sell.


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## frugal.rock (6 September 2021)

kennas said:


> but 20% off for no reason smells.



It's the original festering canker which in my mind, swayed a few opinions about small caps trading potential. 🤫
No names will be mentioned...

It's had the suck in pump, now it's filling the gap ?
I believe the experts say 90% of gaps get filled, so no surprise really.


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## Sean K (6 September 2021)

frugal.rock said:


> It's had the suck in pump, now it's filling the gap ?
> I believe the experts say 90% of gaps get filled, so no surprise really.




More than just filled. It's gapped the gap. Maybe someone had a debt collector at the door this morning.


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## bk1 (6 September 2021)

Thats almost 19 million shares volume by lunchtime, and i still cant see a reason for it..


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## bk1 (6 September 2021)

Maybe i do...
Attempted coup in Guinea over the weekend by a disgruntled Army officer.
Africa = basket case,
where's my risk premium? 😓


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## Sean K (6 September 2021)

bk1 said:


> Maybe i do...
> Attempted coup in Guinea over the weekend by a disgruntled Army officer.
> Africa = basket case,
> where's my risk premium? 😓




Of course! I read about that very early this am and was thinking - hmmm - who are the West African explorers? I wonder if this is a longer term issue for PDI or it's just a standard Coup and then they keep drilling.


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## Sean K (6 September 2021)

Googling the news to see what's going on in Guinea and I think Wikipedia have the best background and current situation outlined.









						2021 Guinean coup d'état - Wikipedia
					






					en.wikipedia.org
				




Really hard to tell what this spells out for PDI short term as I assume all work will pause. The new leaders will have to spell out what their new policies are and how foreign miners will be effected. Royalties, or even ownership of leases, etc. One of the issues has been the waste of cash coming in from miners to the people so it spells trouble. Geesh.


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## bk1 (6 September 2021)

Along with Australia, it is the largest exporter of Bauxite (constituent mineral in aluminium) to China. Aluminium price on the LME has been rising for some time and has spiked after this episode.
Rusal, RIO and AngloGoldAshanti are all big players in Guinea with a lot invested.
I'm sitting tight and holding.


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## Sean K (6 September 2021)

bk1 said:


> Along with Australia, it is the largest exporter of Bauxite (constituent mineral in aluminium) to China. Aluminium price on the LME has been rising for some time and has spiked after this episode.
> Rusal, RIO and AngloGoldAshanti are all big players in Guinea with a lot invested.
> I'm sitting tight and holding.




I would be if I owned it. I wonder if the new military leaders, or whatever puppet they put in, will do their sums and realise it's better to take the golden goose eggs, rather than eat the goose. I'm sure those big players will be outlining the benefits to them. Lots of eggs to shift into that Swiss bank.


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## Beaches (6 September 2021)

bk1 said:


> Along with Australia, it is the largest exporter of Bauxite (constituent mineral in aluminium) to China. Aluminium price on the LME has been rising for some time and has spiked after this episode.
> Rusal, RIO and AngloGoldAshanti are all big players in Guinea with a lot invested.
> I'm sitting tight and holding.





Im also holding for the short term till the smoke clears


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## Sean K (8 September 2021)

Looks like some semi-bargain hunters came in to prop this up. Maybe good timing down there at 10c. Mixed reports in the media about what the current situation is. Maybe this is just the West African equivalent of Scomo knifing Trumbull?


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## Sean K (14 September 2021)

PDI punters seem to be thinking this coup may not effect them longer term, back up to 13c early today. I did note a couple of other companies suspended trade on the ASX but not sure where that's at. 

Been googling what's going on and it's hard to find comment on the ultimate effect on mining. I reckon China will be pulling every string it can as they're pumping a lot of $$ into Africa. 

Got his quote from a france24.com article. 

*Aluminium shock*
_
Guinea is one of the poorest countries in the world, despite its abundant reserves of minerals including iron ore, gold and diamonds.

The former French colony also has the world's largest reserves of bauxite, from which aluminium is made. Mining is the driver of the economy.

News of the coup sent the price of aluminium soaring to its highest level in 13 years this week, and triggered concern about the commodity supply chain among businesses.

Doumbouya has pledged continuity in the mining sector and said this week that Guinea will "uphold all its undertakings (and) mining agreements"._


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## Sean K (14 September 2021)

So, this ann today may have helped the sp, I think. Looks like a simple milling process and the ore's not refractory requiring a POX stage which I think can cost up to about a $1b in extra capex. Notes that work continues. Probably helps that they're way over in the east.


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## Sean K (16 September 2021)

Another good ann. These hits are well outside the initial MRE to be delivered in the next 2 weeks. Looks like this will end up being OP and then UG mine with those grades at depth. Would have been a good opportunity to buy in or top up in hindsight after the coup. Maybe - that's obviously still unresolved. Maybe still cheap, but it's getting close to the first peak of the Lassonde Curve theory of value. Maybe the Coup gazumped that flow and the recent excellent drilling results outside the MRE cut off date perhaps put this still in the mid explorations stage.


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## Sean K (23 September 2021)

PDI gained 50% since being smashed by the coup. Overdone perhaps? 

Looks like they'll find additional gold between NE Bankan and the Creek deposit. Hole 16 looks like it could be a new discovery. This is just AC drilling to 50m too. 

Initial MRE out in the next week. Ounces expectations have already been factored into the sp I think, but the coup has probably put an additional discount on what was already a W Africa regional discount valuation.


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## Sean K (29 September 2021)

Trading halt for the initial MRE to be released, probably before open tomorrow. Good luck to holders. I hope it's well above expectations and there's no buy the rumour sell the facts type thing. Anything at or above that Sprott guestimate above will be very good. The coup and POG languishing sort of put a damper on excitement perhaps.


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## Sean K (30 September 2021)

Well, this is quite incredible. Double what was expected. This MRE was cut off weeks ago as well with additional excellent results announced outside this estimate to add to the project. Looks like this will end up being closer to a 5m oz au + project. Coup or no coup, this is a major gold discovery.


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## bk1 (30 September 2021)

It's impressive, and to think there has to be further room to increase that resource base going off the most recent announcements and extension drilling.
Interesting that they use a mine in Mali for comparison, if the AISC for Bankan is anywhere near that then this could really be a gold mine...


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## Sean K (30 September 2021)

bk1 said:


> It's impressive, and to think there has to be further room to increase that resource base going off the most recent announcements and extension drilling.
> Interesting that they use a mine in Mali for comparison, if the AISC for Bankan is anywhere near that then this could really be a gold mine...




I looked up Fekola to see if there was a way to compare value but B2B Gold own a few projects and it's impossible to attribute value to just that one mine. So comparisons are very difficult and you'd have to go back to when Fekola was at the same stage of development to compare $$ per ounce.

I'm not sure if PDI have the expertise to take this through to production. Board and management look like geologists / explorers. Might now be on the radar of someone who can. One of the directors is the Chairman at TIE...


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## Sean K (6 October 2021)

Even though this has jumped there's probably still a coup discount attached to this. MC still just $330m with that resource and more to come. Should get to 5m oz based on extension drilling already announced plus probable discoveries in the region. Has held up well after the excitement. Not much of a trader sell off, yet. Volume coming off which is a big positive. Might end up in a bullish flag/pennant formation.


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## Sean K (8 October 2021)

Now know why they surprised the market. They included the most recent drilling into the MRE when they said they had cut it off some time before. That's a bit shifty. 

MD thinks they're going to take this to mining by themselves. Not sure if they have the internal capability to do that. 

The way he's talking is that they thing they've got much more than 3.6m oz, but heading towards 10m oz, mainly due to the grade at depth, plus regional potential.


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## bk1 (8 October 2021)

I saw this...(is this the Crux Investor video?)

My prime concern is still how to accurately apply an Africa risk value to this.
He is correct, if this was discovered in WA the share price would be materially different 
Even at say, 5 Moz after further drilling, how much sp increase can we forsee.


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## Sean K (8 October 2021)

bk1 said:


> I saw this...(is this the Crux Investor video?)
> 
> My prime concern is still how to accurately apply an Africa risk value to this.
> He is correct, if this was discovered in WA the share price would be materially different
> Even at say, 5 Moz after further drilling, how much sp increase can we forsee.



Yes, Crux. Matt is the best host of the all the you tubers doing small caps interviews. He normally gives them a pretty hard time and is not just there to promote them. 

PDI current MC is around $330m with potentially 5m oz at next MRE upgrade (first half next year) with no additional CRs to get there should see them at a much higher MC. Much depends on general market,  POG and future coups. It's a guestimate to say how much of a discount. I'd pluck 25% discount for WeAf and 25% for the coup. So, if this was in WA should be on a current MC of about $500m. With $5m oz, give them half the MC of DEG which is currently $1.5b...


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## Sean K (11 October 2021)

TH because of a media report? Done a google but can't find anything yet. I assume it's negative and about the coup and effect on operations. You wouldn't put a halt in because of the positive MRE.


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## qldfrog (11 October 2021)

missed my exit by a day..will be costly


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## Sean K (12 October 2021)

Ann out. Media report questioning legality of mining on their lease. I wonder how they even got authorisation to drill if it was not going to be legal to mine? Makes me think that they will eventually be OK. Maybe.

Their key deposits are in Buffer Zone 2 which is a 'multiple use' area. They were cleared for exploration activities in their area, but will they be granted a mining permit that will be much more disruptive? Maybe not, as they state in their ann: _'Buffer Zone 2 of the Upper Niger National Park is a protected area where the mining of mineral deposits is not permitted.'_

This throws a spanner in the works. How was this not made public by the company prior to this?


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## bk1 (12 October 2021)

After all that has recently happened in that country, how is this even a news story?
This is Africa. Rule of law is a novelty in these parts.
More to the point who or what is the media outlet behind this?


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## Sean K (12 October 2021)

bk1 said:


> More to the point who or what is the media outlet behind this?




Yes, I wondered that. Why would someone dig that deep to find this out and make it news? hmmm


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## bk1 (12 October 2021)

Down about 20% as we speak.
Guess i'm getting a crash course in West Africa mining risk premiums...


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## Sean K (12 October 2021)

bk1 said:


> Down about 20% as we speak.
> Guess i'm getting a crash course in West Africa mining risk premiums...




I think they still might be able to mine if they provide the right amount of compensation... I think this is too valuable to the local community and to the central gov.

The only people who would dig into this would be a green/conservation activist group I reckon.

I was spewin I didn't have the courage to buy after the coup when it went to 10c. This might be another time I will regret not having the courage. Might be worth taking a longer gamble. I'm about to flip a coin...


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## bk1 (12 October 2021)

I bought again after the coup, but at 11/12 c. I'm pretty sure Sprotts still had a PT of 40 cents that i saw on one of their analysis, and that was published after the coup.


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## Sean K (19 October 2021)

PDI smashed after the revelation they currently can't mine their deposit, but a lot of punters are backing them in to get the authority at some stage. Now significantly discounted due to that risk, on top of the coup, and on top of being in WeAf. If they get something positive back from the new government (whenever that is) on future development then the value (guess how much - 80%?) can get added to their price.

Very good drill results out extending the Creek. I think they'll have to redo the pit shell to include these hits and if it's getting too deep it'll turn into an UG effort. Going to add substantially to the next MRE if they keep going like this.

Too valuable to the locals and the country for this not to turn into a mine at some stage, imo. Might just cost them some extra large Aldi bags.


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## bk1 (19 October 2021)

And now global investment manager Van Eck decides to become a substantial holder.
Proof of ownership confirmed?


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## Sean K (19 October 2021)

bk1 said:


> And now global investment manager Van Eck decides to become a substantial holder.
> Proof of ownership confirmed?




I think any of the institutions with a lot of skin in this are just banking on mining being approved. In a couple of years time I think most will look back at these big hits (coup, national park) and rue the missed opportunity. Current mc $250m for 3.6m OzAu but will easily go over 5m from surface. TIE have 3.35m Oz and will be digging up over 200k oz pa. I think PDI will be aiming for at least 250k oz pa for 10+ years. Will be one of the biggest producers in WeAf. Just gotta hand out those Aldi bags.


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## Sean K (21 October 2021)

And, here's the news article. 

Not much we don't know here except we now know how incompetent the government of Guinea is. The Environment Minister claiming that he didn't know about the exploration licence granted by the Mining Ministry. Morons.

And, as expected, it was a greenie group / newspaper that dug this up. All good to them to try and protect the chimps though. We must ensure these animals survive. 

But, does this stop a mine going ahead when billions are at stake? History seems to show that with enough compensation even 'sacred' land can be mined with the right royalty stream. 

As an interesting aside, PDI just recently announced a director had resigned and there's been a shuffle of management. Related? The director who resigned is the Chair of TIE, Mr Francis Harper. Francis also financed WAF and was also Chair for a time. He seems to be a WeAF expert. Was it he who was in charge of overseeing the exploration/mining licence? The reason for his resignation was to spend more time on TIE, but perhaps he was asked to resign and fell on his sword? Curious timing, at least.


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## Sean K (28 October 2021)

Such a shame these guys are digging near a monkey park. If it wasn't for those primates, this would be worth triple, or more. Who knows. If in Australia it would be shaping up to be DEG like. 

They almost need to stop exploration and go to BFS on what they've got and then negotiate the transfer of Aldi bags to whoever is running the shop at the time to get a mining licence. Until there's some clarity on that, they're a question mark. How will they even get financing to build a mill when the government says you can't mine it? Alternatively, they're going to keep drilling in the hope that in time, and Aldi bags, the gov will be just like all other governments when they see $$.


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## bk1 (28 October 2021)

They keep finding decent grades of gold (in my opinion) but to no avail.
The grades that WAF intend buying from B2GGold are underwhelming but a different species of primate are just rolling up to buy into it.


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## Sean K (28 October 2021)

bk1 said:


> They keep finding decent grades of gold (in my opinion) but to no avail.
> The grades that WAF intend buying from B2GGold are underwhelming but a different species of primate are just rolling up to buy into it.




It all comes down to betting on the gov agreeing to an exception to the rule, ostensibly based on an environmental risk assessment saying that a mine in that particular area will not affect the chimps, plus anything else on an endangered list in the park. I imagine green groups who have an interest in the area, and chimps, will run a pretty tough campaign against a mine. Who knows who could get on board to say it's too much. The UN, Dave Attenborough, Prince Charles? My bet is on mitigation and $$ will win, but it's not a long term bet I'm willing to make while there's other opportunities in countries with less coups, and less chimps.


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## finicky (28 October 2021)

bk1 said:


> The grades that WAF intend buying from B2GGold are underwhelming



The acquisition that WAF made is I think about 45 kms from Sanbrado and an operating mill. That changes the value of the asset


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## Sean K (29 October 2021)

Quarterly report out. And Annual.

All looks fantastic. 🙂

Zero mention that they're drilling in a monkey park.  🤔


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## Sean K (3 November 2021)

More significant results, extending the mineralisation at depth, and the grades are excellent over very good widths. When you look at the cartoons they have a significant amount of gold under the pit shell that's not in the MRE. The next upgrade will already be significant and it's just getting deeper. Will obviously become an UG operation into the future.

Interesting note at the bottom of the first page that the MD and CEO are in Guinea having tea with the government / coup leaders, presumedly to sort out if they can mine, and/or how much that's going to cost them.

This is almost too good not to be in, but I'm scared of monkeys.


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## Sean K (3 November 2021)

I've tossed a coin on the monkey situation and heads came up, so I'm taking a high risk initial punt on this mob. I think it's going to cost them an arm and a leg to get a mining permit, but it's just too valuable.

I had to re-read the last Sprott report regarding the monkeys to get at least a half warm and fuzzy to push the button.


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## greggles (18 November 2021)

PDI share price hitting new highs today, mostly on the back of a bullish gold price. Getting through 25c was a big deal for PDI. I suspect we'll see 30c fairly quickly now, as long as gold remains bullish.


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## Sean K (18 November 2021)

greggles said:


> PDI share price hitting new highs today, mostly on the back of a bullish gold price. Getting through 25c was a big deal for PDI. I suspect we'll see 30c fairly quickly now, as long as gold remains bullish.




Would be nice if it held above 26c. The head honchos were in Guinea a couple of weeks ago speaking to the Dept of Mines and Environment to try and deconflict / manage a way forward for potential development. I imagine a few Aldi bags were pushed under various tables. The market is probably expecting some sort of announcement as to how those talks progressed. Could be a big moment for PDI holders if there's a definitive answer / path forward to mining. Or, not.


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## Sean K (22 November 2021)

No update on the monkey situation yet but some more very good drill results out extending the main deposit further at depth. Every 50m deeper adds about 150K ounces, or thereabouts, according to the MD I recall from a briefing at some stage. So, it's approaching 4Moz au now. Can they dig it up....


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## Sean K (9 December 2021)

Ann out. Mineralisation continues well below the initial MRE into what will be UG mining area.

No mention of the monkey discussions in-country that were going on a month or so ago. That's disappointing and poor comms from the MD since they made a tizz about it.


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## Sean K (12 December 2021)

New research note from Sprott out after the recent deep drilling results, confirming potential for 5m oz au and UG mining.

No mention of the monkeys.


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## Sean K (30 December 2021)

This could go either way next year, depending on a decision with the monkey park. If they get some sort of guarantee from whoever is in charge that a mining concession may be granted then that risk reduction could see them significantly re-rated - happy with the Sprott target. I think gold will break out at some stage in 2022 as well which will have Sprott raising their current forecast much higher. However, the risk is that the greenie activists, who dug up the story about the conservation area in the first place, gain support for a mining ban. That would be disastrous for the SP, the future of the project, and for the entire company.


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## Sean K (5 January 2022)

I think there's some bots out there that have a 'sell at 27c' algo in them.


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## Sean K (10 January 2022)

Sean K said:


> This could go either way next year, depending on a decision with the monkey park.




This is huge. It seems they're going to be allowed to continue development and build a mine by the looks. Game changer.

Dumping a few Aldi bags at the MESD has done the trick.


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## bk1 (10 January 2022)

" Provision of supplies to UNNP staff
 Ongoing provision of supplies as above"

All's well in the world, for some. It's a gold mine alright...


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## Sean K (11 January 2022)

Seems like the belief that the monkey park was not going to be an issue is factored in to the current SP. I thought this was still a significant country risk and any confirmation or positive news from the government that they can keep working towards a mine would cause a huge change in sentiment. But, nope...

Sprott didn't even raise their valuation by reducing risk.


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## Sean K (12 January 2022)

Sean K said:


> I think there's some bots out there that have a 'sell at 27c' algo in them.
> 
> View attachment 135265




Threatening the bots at 27c again. I thought the monkey news would have been enough to have that level wiped. One day perhaps. As long as the diagonal line is respected the odds are it breaks one day. Maybe...


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## Sean K (12 January 2022)

I thought she was going to get there today, hitting 28c at one stage, but nope, even with POG having a good 24hrs. I'm cautiously optimistic this triangle breaks up in the short term, unless POG crashes. 

Fundamentally though, longer term, we're looking at over 4m ounces for the next MRE, just what's behind the 4 is a question. Most of the additional ounces are coming at depth at the moment. Perhaps if one of the nearby deposits can firm up into something substantial, who knows. 

If you do a simple $ per ounce for a MC and range it between $150-200, you get a pretty decent MC projection, well above todays price. 

Maybe there's still a significant monkey and coup discount.


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## Sean K (13 January 2022)

Further assays into the deeps at NE Bankan. It's not closing off at depth any time soon by the look. Not sure how much deeper they keep going before putting out another MRE. It's estimated by Sprott that they're adding 5koz/vm with this drilling.


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## Sean K (13 January 2022)

There's bigger players holding this where it is, IMO. They're running out of time to accumulate. That's my basic theory on institutional buying. 

Otherwise, it broke through 28c, which I contributed to, and has tested support and held, which is positive. It's not broken through yet though.


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## TechnoCap (13 January 2022)

Sean K said:


> There's bigger players holding this where it is, IMO. They're running out of time to accumulate. That's my basic theory on institutional buying.
> 
> Otherwise, it broke through 28c, which I contributed to, and has tested support and held, which is positive. It's not broken through yet though.
> 
> View attachment 135712



it will be like Makybe Diva soon breaking through at the 200m mark to win her third Melbourne Cup

I hope...


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## Sean K (13 January 2022)

TechnoCap said:


> it will be like Makybe Diva soon breaking through at the 200m mark to win her third Melbourne Cup
> 
> I hope...




Let's hope so. These things (based on basic TA) don't always go to plan due to extraneous forces. Like a sudden plunge in gold overnight when the big banks are trading support and resistance lines - gold approaching 1830 is a sell, or another coup. But, all else being equal, this is a nice set up, touch wood. If you're short term trading this then a break down through the support is short term trouble.


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## TechnoCap (13 January 2022)

Sean K said:


> Let's hope so. These things (based on basic TA) don't always go to plan due to extraneous forces. Like a sudden plunge in gold overnight when the big banks are trading support and resistance lines - gold approaching 1830 is a sell, or another coup. But, all else being equal, this is a nice set up, touch wood. If you're short term trading this then a break down through the support is short term trouble.



hands and heels at 0.26c


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## Sean K (14 January 2022)

Well, she ended the week indecisively, pausing at the 27.5 mark. I had the resistance at 27, but it's obviously 27 +/- a pip. We may be in the hands of US Friday gold trading Gods. Or, whoever is stopping it go through 27 ish cents decides they've got enough. I'm not sure if that's conspiracy theory stuff or real.


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## Sean K (16 January 2022)

Sprott update on the last deep drilling results. They're estimating another 850K oz to the first MRE, to date. But there will certainly be more with the additional discoveries listed previously, and it's not closing off at depth in the main deposit. So, 4.5m ounces is a certainty in the next MRE upgrade. Put $150-200 and ounce on that for a potential valuation this year. Current MC $350m which rates them at $100 an ounce on current MRE. The discount has to be the country risk and monkeys. While still risky, that's the game we are playing.

A break clear through the ceiling of 27c -ish on this ascending triangle has a 38c -ish target.


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## Sean K (17 January 2022)

Once again, failed at 27 ish. The long wicks on the last week's candles look like trouble to me, but it's still respecting that short term upward support line. Just. I actually hope it goes back to the diagonal support line now as a longer term opportunity to add. Clearly breaking 27c with volume and maybe testing it will be a great short term opportunity.


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## peter2 (17 January 2022)

You know what _they_ say, "a watched pot never boils". OR Monkeys can always find a plentiful supply of bananas. 
And you haven't even mentioned that *HCH* is sneaking higher.


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## Sean K (17 January 2022)

peter2 said:


> You know what _they_ say, "a watched pot never boils". OR Monkeys can always find a plentiful supply of bananas.
> And you haven't even mentioned that *HCH* is sneaking higher.




I watch all my pots. But, the reason for watching this so closely at the moment is the TA set up. I'm posting regular charts on it now as an example of what could happen in a short/medium term time frame, which means it will probably break down through support now.

I think I've mentioned HCH is possibly bouncing, and posted up the levels of S&R, IMO, but I have less faith in that. I'm not married to it.


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## Sean K (20 January 2022)

There was a lot of red on my screens yesterday and PDI went with the trend. Just keeping in the triangle and on some support. With POG breaking through 1830 that _should_ support this keeping in the upper corner of the triangle and probability of breaking up. But, it's hard to say if any technical damage is being done by continuing to fail at 27 ish cents. It's getting frustrating.


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## Porper (20 January 2022)

There is bearish divergence on the daily and weekly charts too. Provides a short-term headwind.


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## Sean K (28 January 2022)

Quarterly out and the summary sounds pretty good. I wonder if Sprott and the likes are underestimating the next MRE upgrade like we all did with the initial MRE. I have a feeling they are being conservative with the additional 800k oz already defined under Bankan. The grades and widths are extraordinary at depth. And, I don't think they're counting on 800 W and SW Bankan.


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## Sean K (2 February 2022)

Exploration drilling to just 50m or so is hitting some very good intercepts, especially some of the grades from very shallow. 800W looks like it'll turn into a deposit to be mined and add significant ounces to the global resource. Hitting over 100g/m gold from surface is outstanding. If these deposits are similar to NE Bankan with grades increasing at depth down to 500m plus, then it could be anything.


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## Sean K (7 March 2022)

PDI curiously gone down over the past month while POG has gone radically north. Hmmm


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## Sean K (11 April 2022)

Over a month later and PDI still hugging 20c or a MC of about $270m with 3.65m ounces so far and bound to grow to the 4m ounce mark easily. $73 an ounce is almost like stealing candy from a baby here. Unless democracy suddenly breaks out in West Africa of course. Then this will never turn into a mine.


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## Sean K (26 April 2022)

Pretty boring old quarterly except for the note that they're going to get some extra drills in the ground. Looks like they've confirmed that they'll plan for an underground operation in the main deposit in a PFS. Next MRE including those holes at depth will be quite significant I imagine.

I don't think the pit can be made any deeper but it can certainly go out to the north with the hits identified on the cartoon below. Will change the overall ounces in the optimised shell.

I think this will be significantly re-rated once they get a concession to mine the edges of the monkey park.

Just going to keep topping up on any opportunity under $300m MC. Obviously still risky due to the monkeys and that's why Mr Market doesn't like it.


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## Ann (26 April 2022)

Sean K said:


> PDI curiously gone down over the past month while POG has gone radically north. Hmmm



CHN went north even as the POG was falling the last time around. Perhaps this is another of those contrarian stocks. I really like the look of the chart. For some reason, I have not got this on watch for gold, now I have!

We had a big fall today but I see PDI is sitting nicely on the horizontal support/resistance. This is just the chart shape that really catches my attention. If this can lift back above the 200dmas, I may well be tempted. Although I am waiting to buy into gold, maybe a mistake, wouldn't have been my first!


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## Sean K (26 April 2022)

Ann said:


> CHN went north even as the POG was falling the last time around. Perhaps this is another of those contrarian stocks. I really like the look of the chart. For some reason, I have not got this on watch for gold, now I have!
> 
> We had a big fall today but I see PDI is sitting nicely on the horizontal support/resistance. This is just the chart shape that really catches my attention. If this can lift back above the 200dmas, I may well be tempted. Although I am waiting to buy into gold, maybe a mistake, wouldn't have been my first!
> 
> View attachment 140880




Just about everything tanked the last 2 trading sessions. Commodities crunched. When you look at the Lithium, Zinc, Tin, etc, prices you can see it's going 1500s tulip-like. But, I think there's more fundamentals surrounding the metals as opposed to flowers, and it's going to be buying time for longer term investors. Short term traders should have been stopped out.


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## Sean K (27 April 2022)

Definitely going UG mining here. Planning to drill down to about a k by the looks of the cartoon below. If the grades and widths continue to those levels it's going to be huge. Sprott's pluck on how many ounces they are adding is 5K per vertical meter. I think they are now 200m below the MRE which equals an additional million ounces and it's still open. If they keep going to the 1km depth mark at this rate that will be an additional 3Moz +/- taking the resource to 6.5Moz Au. 

Let's hope the ESG studies, along with the mandatory Aldi bags, give them a mining licence.


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## Sean K (29 April 2022)

Sprott update. I'll be happy with 40c, thanks.


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## Sean K (3 May 2022)

Buying this with an MC under $300m is gold if you believe in the gold story and they get a mining permit.

Next MRE not till Sep so if NE Bankan keeps going at depth and they continue adding ounces elsewhere it should be considerably re-rated by then. Still has the coup and monkey risk of course, but if you look past that...

Should be more consistent drilling results out as they've sacked their last contractor and brought on a new team.

From the 27 Apr ann:


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## Sean K (20 May 2022)

I'm not sure if Mr Market understands what the extension and infill drilling at Bankan is going to provide at the next MRE in Q3. The initial MRE certainly surprised to the upside due to the grade and continuity of mineralisation at depth in NE Bankan and those results have just kept coming outside the MRE. Next result will start with a 4 in front of it and could be on the way to a 5. Will almost certainly be the second biggest mine in Guinea after Siguiri. Sprott are plucking somewhere between 5-6Moz. That will certainly put them on the map. 

Looks like a smart appointment in the Country Manager role. Should have some insiders in the government who will readily accept some additional Aldi bags for a mining license.


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## Sean K (26 May 2022)

Mining the market. Didn't see this coming until next quarter. 

In The Fin.


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## Sean K (15 June 2022)

Sprott are saying that this is growing at about 5K ounces per vertical meter below the initial MRE. So, on this 113 hole that goes 370m below that's about 1.85Moz Au on top of the 3.65Moz = 5.5Moz.

However, it's still not closed off at depth, so might be a few more hundred meters of mineralisation. Just a matter of grades to know if it goes underground mining. Looks like it should.


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## Sean K (18 July 2022)

PDI holding up at the placement price which is good considering POG downward momentum. MRE upgrade can't be too far away. MC still around the $300m mark with a potential 5-6Moz deposit which has good met and pretty consistent mineralisation. Still has the national park issue to resolve at some stage, but this is Africa. I still don't think the market understands what this MRE upgrade is going to deliver.


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## Sean K (22 July 2022)

Nothing new in the quarterly that I can see. 

Resource upgrade due 'early August', and looking forward to that. Most who follow it will be counting on 5K oz extra per vertical meter over the initial MRE and I think all the drilling is probably been done that will be included in the upgrade. Although they do indicate planned DD holes 200m below the last deepest hole, so will see.


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## Sean K (29 July 2022)

Update from Sprott. Those rough comparisons to other similar project valuations at the bottom make this look pretty cheap. $350m v $3.7-4.7b... That would make this a 10 bagger from here, less dilution from capex.


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## Sean K (1 August 2022)

MRE update out and it doesn't include all the drilling I thought would be included, unfortunately. 

It's not really clear but I think this only goes about 50m deeper under the initial MRE which is way short of the 370m I had in the calculation of total ounces. I was going off the companies (and Sprotts) pluck of 5K per VM as well, and I'm not even sure that is the case here. So, disappointing they haven't somehow incorporated the last few drill results. Maybe next time. 

Also, no upgrade from any of the inferred to indicated which is odd. I thought they'd done quite a bit of infill in the top half of the deposit. 

I don't think this is going to be very good as my Aug tipping comp pick. Needed a 6 in front of it I think, which was the expectation.


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## Sean K (3 August 2022)

Sprott update on the MRE.

Still projecting 6Moz once the deeper holes are filled in, but I think it will be more once they concentrate on some of the regional hits that indicate there's more to be found. 

The $1 a share once into production is supposed to include future dilution, but they're just guessing what that might be I think.


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## Sean K (25 August 2022)

Some great infill results here with a couple extending the resource under the previous MRE as you'd expect. Looks like it will continue down to the lowest hole with some consistency which should lead to the 6m ounce deposit forecast. Maybe it'll just keep going after that.


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## Sean K (10 October 2022)

Sprott seemed to have lowered their target to 40c, but say ‘unc‘. I must have missed the previous change.


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## Sean K (10 October 2022)

Sean K said:


> Sprott seemed to have lowered their target to 40c, but say ‘unc‘. I must have missed the previous change.
> 
> View attachment 147859




Found the reduction in price target. Sprott have adjusted down their POG assumptions which has affected all their prices.


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## mullokintyre (31 October 2022)

PDI hit a 52 week low.
There is a huge disparity between buyers and sellers by a factor of 10, so methinks this will have to fall further.
Will wait until the dust settles.
Mick


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## Sean K (1 November 2022)

mullokintyre said:


> PDI hit a 52 week low.
> There is a huge disparity between buyers and sellers by a factor of 10, so methinks this will have to fall further.
> Will wait until the dust settles.
> Mick




Looks untidy short term. MC down to about $250m now with what's going to be 6m OzAu. Upside to come from any nearby discovery and they've had a few pretty good regional hits to follow up. The only doubts I have about this becoming a mine remain the excise from the national park. Maybe that's still scaring punters. I'm using weakness to top up on a couple of these African explorers. eg, ORR MC down around $150m with a very good resource looks oversold now.


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## mullokintyre (1 November 2022)

Which ORR are you more interested in ORR.ASX  (Orebody) or ORR.LSE (oriole resources)?
Oriole is big in Africa but according to what I read, its  MC is closer to 5 mill Aud.
Orebody the Oz one has mines in Tanzannia, which is  really East Africa.
Mick


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## Sean K (1 November 2022)

mullokintyre said:


> Which ORR are you more interested in ORR.ASX  (Orebody) or ORR.LSE (oriole resources)?
> Oriole is big in Africa but according to what I read, its  MC is closer to 5 mill Aud.
> Orebody the Oz one has mines in Tanzannia, which is  really East Africa.
> Mick




OreCorp, Tanzania. Has been smashed the past six months, like a number of gold juniors/explorers including PDI. Explorers mostly out of favour due to the global financial situation combined with USD strength.


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## Sean K (10 November 2022)

Some good infill drilling results here with the contractor recommending that the widths go out a bit which indicates it's a pretty consistent deposit. 38m@7g/t is amazing. Not sure how much this is discounted because of the national park issue. Maybe 0.2xNAV ish.


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## Sean K (12 November 2022)

Sprott update on the above announcement. No change really, but reduces risk a little due to the consistency. 

A significant catalyst for me would be an excise in the national park for mining and follow up drilling on some of the close regional drill results. As Sprott indicate, the focus seems to be on reducing risk on what they've already got as opposed to blue sky regional success. 

Probable 5m ounces with an EV of $250m.... DEG 10m ounces with $2b MC.


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## Sean K (14 November 2022)

This has been pretty volatile due to coups, gold cracking and monkey parks but it's been pretty consistent in going down for the past year. Bought seven parcels on the way down, but miraculously only down 5%. Could have been much worse without averaging in during the market stress. Fingers crossed this channel is broken to the upside. I thought buying under 18c was pretty safe with the placement done around there, but have seen that strategy fail before too. I'm banking on the park excise. I think that news will change the market perception on this considerably. Or, monkeys win and I'm in the toilet.


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## finicky (14 November 2022)

BtL did a video on PDI on Sunday   🗿


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## Sean K (14 November 2022)

finicky said:


> BtL did a video on PDI on Sunday   🗿




Maybe he could post it up here?


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## Sean K (17 November 2022)

Tapping on the downward resistance line of the chanel. I have zero confidence it'll break through at the moment. Maybe at the mercy of the general market and POG. If it gets through, 24c looks like a challenge.


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## Sean K (5 December 2022)

Sprott update on their last ann that I didn't post up because it was boring. 

No change on PT, and seem to be more banking on exploration success for more significant upside. They really need to follow up some of those significant hits close to NEB.

Major catalyst for this IMO will be some sort of positive news about an excise from the NP. Would remove a massive chunk of risk. 

Just breaking up out of that sort off chanel identified previously.


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## bk1 (5 December 2022)

Sean K said:


> Just breaking up out of that sort off chanel identified previously.




The scent of gold, @Sean K   ??


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## Sean K (5 December 2022)

bk1 said:


> The scent of gold, @Sean K   ??




Yes, and this has done similar to most gold stocks I suppose since the Oct/Nov bottom. 🤞 it was a bottom.


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## Sean K (1 January 2023)

My riskiest holding due to the perceived geopolitical risk of the monkey park but I think investors overestimate what coups and monkeys do to West African drill plays. This will be a mine and one of the biggest in WAf. If it was in WA it'd be around half of DEGs MC which is $2b. So, should triple from current MC of $300m. It's certainly better than TIE's deposit and they had a $900m MC at one point. Probably a TO target for an experienced WAf developer/miner like a PRU.


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## rcw1 (1 January 2023)

Sean K said:


> My riskiest holding due to the perceived geopolitical risk of the monkey park but I think investors overestimate what coups and monkeys do to West African drill plays. This will be a mine and one of the biggest in WAf. If it was in WA it'd be around half of DEGs MC which is $2b. So, should triple from current MC of $300m. It's certainly better than TIE's deposit and they had a $900m MC at one point. Probably a TO target for an experienced WAf developer/miner like a PRU



Good afternoon,

Burkina Faso:
In 2014 political unrest led by the people resulted in the dissolution of the government in October, of that year.   The establishment of a transitional administration later that year finally being succeeded by a democratically elected government, maybe 2016. 

A military coup in January 2022 deposed the president, suspended the constitution, and dissolved the National Assembly and the government.  


Kind regards
rcw1




​


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## Sean K (1 January 2023)

rcw1 said:


> Good afternoon,
> 
> Burkina Faso:
> In 2014 political unrest led by the people resulted in the dissolution of the government in October, of that year.   The establishment of a transitional administration later that year finally being succeeded by a democratically elected government, maybe 2016.
> ...




Lucky PDI is in Guinea then. 

But, same sort of coup though. One thing everyone needs to understands with WAf coups is that they are a power and money play. The coup leaders are not benevolent dictators, they just want to line their own pockets. They do not know how to mine gold on scale, so they will take their cut and eventually run to Switzerland.


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## rcw1 (1 January 2023)

Sean K said:


> Lucky PDI is in Guinea then.
> 
> *But, same sort of coup though. *One thing everyone needs to understands with WAf coups is that they are a power and money play. The coup leaders are not benevolent dictators, they just want to line their own pockets. They do not know how to mine gold on scale, so they will take their cut and eventually run to Switzerland.



Guinea:
Political turmoil ... last coup on record was in 2021. Today, not sure, but thinking still an interim government backed by the military.


Kind regards
rcw1


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## Sean K (1 January 2023)

rcw1 said:


> Guinea:
> Political turmoil ... last coup on record was in 2021. Today, not sure, but thinking still an interim government backed by the military.
> 
> 
> ...




Yep. The whole of WAf has been under military rule of some kind or another for the past 2000 years. It's now probably the safest jurisdiction for mining companies to go from exploration to production within years, not decades. It's far easier to grease the wheels. Just need some decent security.


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## rcw1 (1 January 2023)

Sean K said:


> Yep. The whole of WAf has been under military rule of some kind or another for the past 2000 years. It's now probably the safest jurisdiction for mining companies to go from exploration to production within years, not decades. It's far easier to grease the wheels. Just need some decent security.



Maybe, the trouble with 'greasing the wheels' is, where does one draw the line in the sand.  Might well be good, until the wrong person gets to do the moving and shaking, then will need more than decent security.

Kind regards
rcw1


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## Sean K (3 January 2023)

Interesting this character popped up of the registry recently. That's a whopping holding for an individual. Looks like he needs a secretary too. Don't see a handwritten note like that very often.


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