# Now is not the time to panic



## dennisll (14 June 2006)

For long traders, times like these will test your systems.  A time to find out if it works, or to chuck it out and start working on a new one.

For long term investors, times like these allow cheaper buys.  Better yields too.

For newbies, times like these provide valuable lessons.  Expensive, but valuable.

For short traders, times like these you can buy the rest of us a beer...


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## Bobby (14 June 2006)

dennisll said:
			
		

> For long traders, times like these will test your systems.  A time to find out if it works, or to chuck it out and start working on a new one.
> 
> For long term investors, times like these allow cheaper buys.  Better yields too.
> 
> ...




Yep dennis this market sure does sort out whos who    regarding the bucks $ lost or won.

Clever people like Wayne will clean up shorting.

Bob.


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## scsl (14 June 2006)

that's fair enough

...and what about those who aren't investing or trading in these situations?


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## dennisll (14 June 2006)

if they're smart, they'd be looking at this as a gate slowly creaking open.

if they're not, they'd be spooked and have further justification for avoiding the market completely.

what do you think?


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## scsl (14 June 2006)

yeah, i'd imagine those who aren't involved would be absolutely spooked by what's going on at the moment... you don't have to go further than daily news on tv or newspapers to get a sense that it's all doom and gloom with stocks in australia and around the globe. 

i wouldn't blame them at all... i remember nearly forgetting about the stockmarket altogether when i first got interested. to see the market drop 1.5-2% and blue chips losing 5-6% or more in a day wasn't a pretty sight. 

but as many analysts are saying, this is just a "healthy correction" and a great opportunity to keep a closer eye on shares that have fallen wayyy too much and enter, having done your research and learnt about these stocks.

scsl


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## Bobby (14 June 2006)

scsl said:
			
		

> that's fair enough
> 
> ...and what about those who aren't investing or trading in these situations?




Well a deep question like yours will need a bit of thought   

Best leave it with the big brains.

Bob.


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## wayneL (14 June 2006)

Sorry

Couldn't resist


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## Mumbank (14 June 2006)

As the late great KP used to say
"Sell when everyone's buying and BUY when everyone's selling".  Its just trying to decide WHAT to buy when SOOOO much stock is down.  There is a lot of value out there if you are game to try and pick when it has bottomed.


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## pacer (14 June 2006)

Always remember "The trend is your friend", sure you can buy now and hope it's the bottom, but I think that untill there's a definite slow up trend and less volitility, then the bargains could get even better.


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## chris1983 (14 June 2006)

man this sucks bad.  For some reason all I can do is look at my stocks and smile.  Its like what the heck is going on.  I think I got over the stress and depression of seeing my stocks drop when this started 2 weeks ago.  Ah well im just going to stick them away in the drawer.  People selling out will be sorry because the market will always come back bigger and stronger and then I'll have the last laugh.  Arrow Energy are 52.5!!  whats happening! FAR almost back to what I paid for them.  haha and all the rest of them..red red red red red


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## visual (14 June 2006)

I`m with you there,
in fact yesterday I said to my husband ,just think of this as having a house with bad tenants,


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## lesm (14 June 2006)

wayneL

Looks like you may need to start searching for more cartoons.

It will be interesting to see what happens when the US CPI figures come out and then the PPI figures.

Wonder how many traders have recently turned into overnight investors in the current market. It would be interesting to work out how much panic selling is going on by amateur/newbie traders, as well as the number of margin calls impacting on the current market.

Why panic, a correction was inevitable, just a matter of by how much and when. Macro economic conditions were providing early indicators all was not well.

On average 10% downturn is normally considered a correction and 20% a bearmarket.

No wonder the 'bears' are sharpening their claws in anticipation, time will tell. 

Especially, with all the new meat in the market that have only experienced 'bullmarket' conditions.

Enjoy, it's all part of the learning experience, be patient and look for opportunities in the current conditons.

Cheers.


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## kevo (14 June 2006)

The lowest that OXR got was about 2.46 or so. I'd consider that a triple bottom. I don't think that stock can go any lower. I would expect that Gold has bottomed here.  I'd be looking at OXR,MMN,PDN,BDG. Looks like a bottom for those guys. As for the general market, it looks like a bear more than a correction. The commodity super cycle looks intact to me..

www.kontentkonsult.com

Kevo


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## pacer (14 June 2006)

Well suprise me..RIO up 0.7%...But I think It's all short traders changing position and cashing in, till lunchtime then another fall I recon....here's hoping anyway ....gone short 1000 RIO again


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## dennisll (14 June 2006)

Interesting quote from Robert Kiyosaki:

"Now is the time to turn pro. Now is not the time to be an amateur. It's the amateurs who jump in when the market is hot. It's the professional who comes in when it's cooling down."

Of course he was talking about the cooling US housing market.  However, I think the same would apply to our stock market.

http://finance.yahoo.com/columnist/article/richricher/5766


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## dj_420 (14 June 2006)

what time does the dow jones open EST??


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## crackaton (14 June 2006)

kevo said:
			
		

> The lowest that OXR got was about 2.46 or so. I'd consider that a triple bottom. I don't think that stock can go any lower. I would expect that Gold has bottomed here.  I'd be looking at OXR,MMN,PDN,BDG. Looks like a bottom for those guys. As for the general market, it looks like a bear more than a correction. The commodity super cycle looks intact to me..
> 
> www.kontentkonsult.com
> 
> Kevo



Hope you're right bro.


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## serp (14 June 2006)

cathers_420 said:
			
		

> what time does the dow jones open EST??




11:30pm


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## Sean K (14 June 2006)

I've only lost $75K over the past 4 weeks. Happy days. I have tried not to panic all the way down as I am very confident this correction is just that. Stocks are going back to where they were just 6 months ago. That is not a long time. Once things have settled and the dumb money is shaken out, things will steady and climb again. I have definately learnt a lesson though. 'Letting the profits run' without having a stop plan in place has cost me on paper dearly. But still well up from the last correction.


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## suhm (14 June 2006)

so pacer how's your short rio position going today


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## swingstar (14 June 2006)

I closed off all my short positions earlier today as soon as they hit my trailing stops. Haven't had a long position for weeks. 

I'm staying out of the market and just observing for now. I'm not going to force a trade, but there's a few decent stocks I'm looking at, but just waiting for confirmation of my analysis. 

Who wants a beer?


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## Realist (14 June 2006)

http://finance.yahoo.com/columnist/article/richricher/5766

Good article Dennis - I totally agree with it.


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## pacer (14 June 2006)

Well Ok I got on a bit early but my mate the bear emailed me and said ..."Don't panic I'll be back after I have a Quick snooze...see you after the arvo siesta ...haha...hehe.........  suckers....Ive've got a bigger stomach than you think....I may start to hibernate a bit after the fed but be weary bears are verry unpredictable creatures   .......   Yawn  ....... Close to beddy byes but not just yet.

Never turn your back on a bear and especially a bull...Ilearn the hard way ...but still up enough for a 3 week trip to wherever.....

Enjoy it while it lasts......


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## IGO4IT (14 June 2006)

I'm 75% cash at the moment & for the last 2 weeks.

2 points I don't see anyone thinking about:

Time frame of the possible reversal : if correction is over then how long before fear comes out of market (lets not forget those who've been pissing their pants for last 3 weeks & waiting a reversal to sell & break even or will little loss).

Support for the market: Who/what is supporting the market now (that wasn't there yesterday or day before or even last week) & will make sure bears are back buying safely with no concers like before?

I'm holding my cash & willing to pay more later on but I have to get answers from market (thru actions NOT words) before I put my money back in.

For those that think inflation fears is what put us here....CPI figures out tonight in US....good luck for all of us 



cheers,


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## Kipp (14 June 2006)

Mumbank said:
			
		

> As the late great KP used to say
> "Sell when everyone's buying and BUY when everyone's selling".




What I don't like about such a philospohy is that ultimately Share Price is governed by sentiment, rather than results.  We've all had our favourite shares run sideways even when they SHOULD be taking off.  So until the market consolidates (I mean... for months, not just a few weeks) resource stocks can still tumble while the mums and dads jump ship.  As a newbie I say... "Better to miss out on a profit than to realise a loss"


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