# The best T/A indicators



## benn (28 November 2008)

Hi there,
i have been introduced recently to the coppock indicator and looks good. Its data is in excel format and i am going to use it from now on.

For someone like me who does no T/A at all and bases long term buys on "its a good company, its a bank etc" the qu is:

1. is the coppock any good?
2. any other indicators out there. i dont want to have to work too hard at it or be inundated with indicators else i wont use them. so i thought id start with analysing the coppock and one or two others. ive heard the macd is good too.

i have no charting program at home and dont want one either. dont have a huge amount of time to devote to it

cheers
ben


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## >Apocalypto< (28 November 2008)

benn said:


> Hi there,
> i have been introduced recently to the coppock indicator and looks good. Its data is in excel format and i am going to use it from now on.
> 
> For someone like me who does no T/A at all and bases long term buys on "its a good company, its a bank etc" the qu is:
> ...




Hi,

All I use is a MACD (Histogram) and three Moving averages. 
Nice and Simple 

cheers


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## MichaelD (28 November 2008)

benn said:


> 1. is the coppock any good?



No



benn said:


> 2. any other indicators out there.




Shhh - this one's a BIG secret 'cause almost nobody knows about it. This is one of the VERY FEW INDICATORS that are any good.

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Here it is.

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Are you ready for it?

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Can you handle it?

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Can you handle the truth?

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'tis here

CLOSE


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## benn (29 November 2008)

i dont understand your joke


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## MichaelD (29 November 2008)

It's not a joke. I've just given you the BEST indicator there is for trading.


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## Naked shorts (29 November 2008)

one indicator is use is stochastics, It can also be useful for determining divergence aswell.

Dont spend too much time analyzing how it works, as with all indicators, just because they are indicating something, doesnt mean it will happen.

I've never heard of coppock though.


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## Sean K (29 November 2008)

benn said:


> i dont understand your joke



Michael doesn't use any indicators. He throws a dart and then uses a stop loss.

Or something like that. 

We aren't privy to his success story, or his detailed trading history. 

Just the results he posts up, for everyone to be envious about. 


Personally, I have found one particular TA set up very good value.

Watch for a stock generally trending up which spikes, then forms a pennant/triangle, or flag. I try to get in before the break, and have a stop in place. I've found there is a high probability of a break up, and it can be significant. Works in the opposite direction as well, if they let you short. 

Or, just follow Michael's trades.

Actually, where are they?


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## MRC & Co (29 November 2008)

Michael uses a very simple mechanical system, not too different to the turtles from what I have seen.  

Low initial risk, quick pyramiding, catching trends (entry on a specific requirement) and exit based on a larger period ATR to give room to move.  That's all I remember, may be different in this environment.

Indicators are useless retail tools IMHO.  Every single one of them.  Though one may wish to use an MA of some type to determine trend.  Then again, this can simply be done with HH, HL on various timeframes (inclusive of distance between each pivot high and if they intersect for trend strength, which is all I take note of).  

Other than that, for trading equities longer-term, VSA is probably the best thing to learn to time entry/exit.  Though takes a lot more time and effort to learn than a simple indicator.  

But as Benn says, he doesn't want to learn or devote much time to this, so you probably shouldn't be doing it yourself.  But be careful who you allow to do it for you..........

Good luck.

Kennas, that spike up and forming of a large pennant (particularly if messy) is a more reliable pattern to break the other way if I remember correctly from Radge.

Seems pretty 50/50 to me from watching intraday timeframes, but I do like the traditional high tight flag.  Reasonably reliable.


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## Sean K (29 November 2008)

MRC & Co said:


> Kennas, that spike up and forming of a large pennant (particularly if messy) is a more reliable pattern to break the other way if I remember correctly from Radge.
> 
> Seems pretty 50/50 to me from watching intraday timeframes, but I do like the traditional high tight flag.  Reasonably reliable.




um, not sure what that means?


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## MRC & Co (29 November 2008)

kennas said:


> Watch for a stock generally trending up which spikes, then forms a pennant/triangle, or flag. I try to get in before the break, and have a stop in place. I've found there is a high probability of a break up, and it can be significant. Works in the opposite direction as well, if they let you short.




lol, this part.

A stock in an uptrend for example, which spikes up and forms a pennant (not a small tight triangle but a large messy one), is more likely to break down according to Radge (from memory).


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## MRC & Co (29 November 2008)

MRC & Co said:


> Indicators are useless retail tools IMHO.  Every single one of them.




Sorry, don't want to hiijack the thread with this comment.  It is just my observation on intraday futures.  

Though, I do use an RSI divergence on EOD equities for double tops/bottoms.

I think Wayne mentioned some differences on this thread:  https://www.aussiestockforums.com/forums/showthread.php?t=4720

So don't really want to get into that debate, enough is done on the thread and it covers anything and everything I could think of and way way more, some really good stuff for anyone who is interested in indicators (and a whole lot of other good insight).


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## BentRod (30 November 2008)

> Watch for a stock generally trending up which spikes, then forms a pennant/triangle, or flag. I try to get in before the break, and have a stop in place. I've found there is a high probability of a break up, and it can be significant. Works in the opposite direction as well, if they let you short.




This is exactly what I have learned to do regarding ascending triangles and symmetrical triangles.

A long example would be wait for the third bounce on the bottom border and enter the trade with reverse stops. 

You can try an enter on the second bounce but it is harder to pick as you never know where it will be.

The trades that don't get reversed usually are gems because every man and his dog is buying the breakout of the upper border.  
Good for a pyramid on the breakout too,  I've had some huge R-multiple trades with this setup.

Regarding Indicators, I don't use them except for the odd check for divergence on the Dailies.


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## BentRod (30 November 2008)

> I think Wayne mentioned some differences on this thread: https://www.aussiestockforums.com/for...ead.php?t=4720




Thanks for the link MRC, never noticed Soul Trader on these forums?

His forum is good too, loved that video on the CQG tape he did the other day(saw your post

Geez be nice to afford those luxuries


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## mazzatelli1000 (30 November 2008)

MRC & Co said:


> Other than that, for trading equities longer-term, VSA is probably the best thing to learn to time entry/exit.  Though takes a lot more time and effort to learn than a simple indicator.




VSA is more technical analysis than an indicator and I agree with MRC that learning this gives some great insights into how the market moves.

Learn to read price action as everyone else here tells you and make sure it is suited to your timeframe. Each timeframe looks for different things.

Enjoy


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## wayneL (30 November 2008)

Naked shorts said:


> o
> 
> I've never heard of coppock though.




http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Coppock_curve FWIW(SFA)


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## MRC & Co (30 November 2008)

BentRod said:


> Thanks for the link MRC, never noticed Soul Trader on these forums?
> 
> His forum is good too, loved that video on the CQG tape he did the other day(saw your post
> 
> Geez be nice to afford those luxuries




Yeh souldtrader was prob just here drumming up support for his own forum.

He uses MP, I'd much rather just use trendlines and basic support/resistance from various timeframes.

Don't need CQG Bent, you can get the same info from the basic lvl 2 orderbook (this is provided in IB).


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## kam75 (30 November 2008)

The best are:

1. Price
2. OBV (On-Balance Volume)
3. Volume

regards


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## BBand (30 November 2008)

Hi JOE,
I made a lengthy reply to this post - took me quite some time to type it out1/2 - 1 hr
When I tried to preview it - I had to log in again
Logged in again and as expected reply no where to be seen
What a waste of time
Bye


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## Pairs Trader (30 November 2008)

Indicators are useless, they look good on historical charts but trading the hard right edge your way behind the ball with indicators, you only need price action, support, resistence, trend, volatility and how a stock reacts to news to gauge good entry points, also fade big moves on light volume, you will never meet a millionaire trader who uses indicators its just the reality.


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## professor_frink (30 November 2008)

I love these types of threads

A question is asked about an indicator and everyone jumps in talking about how useless they are because they lag. Quite often, they then will turn around and draw pretty lines on a chart to try and help confirm what they see in the basic price chart, and wait for price to confirm the line on the screen as valid before entering. This introduces an element of lag into the "superior" indicator they are using!

If you wait for price to bounce off a support area before entering then there is lag.
If you wait for price to bounce off a moving average before entering, then there is lag.

Yet one is supposedly completely superior to the other and only one of them has lag according to the xspurts in this thread.

RUBBISH!





			
				pairs trader said:
			
		

> you will never meet a millionaire trader who uses indicators its just the reality.




Linda Bradford Raschke(I think I've spelt that correctly)

Might be time to rethink using absolute terms like never


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## BBand (30 November 2008)

Hi Prof
Completely agree !!!!!!!!!!

I've used indicators "successfully" for years.

I think we put too much emphasis on our entry and exit strategies as our reason for trading successfully.

Whether its TA, and any of its numerous forms or FA, no matter how good we think our analysis is or which method is "superior" - its still a probabilties game - and how we manage the trade determines how much we win or lose - NOT our entry or exit

This is of course speaking from a discretionary point of view where we have the option to trade in our own best interest with what the market offers.

My biggest step forward as a trader was when I realised that I did not have to wait until my stop was hit before exiting, once my analysis is proved wrong  - if I stay in the trade  - I'm gambling

When I enter a trade I start looking for an exit until price action proves my analysis correct

Quite simple really


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## amory (30 November 2008)

benn said:


> Hi there,
> i have been introduced recently to the coppock indicator and looks good. Its data is in excel format and i am going to use it from now on.
> 
> For someone like me who does no T/A at all and bases long term buys on "its a good company, its a bank etc" the qu is:
> ...




to return to the original question: 1. Coppock ... a good trend-change indicator.  some traders rely on it quite successfully.
2. breakthru of a short-term thru a longer-term EOD line ... eg. 3-day average thru 10-day or any other combination is alright.
Macd is alright.  combine it with rising volume to be on the safe side.

Now for the charting program.  you don't need it, but won't you still need to look at the chart of the stock to see whether what you are looking for is actually happening?

there are any number of sites - forums too, such as TopStocks - where they show you the chart as soon as you call up a stock.  what's more, you can specify your own preferences, which averages you would like to see etc.

but the one question no one is raising:  without a program of some kind, how do you expect to know which stocks are conforming to your requirements & when?  this is the one that's really puzzling me.


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## It's Snake Pliskin (30 November 2008)

MRC & Co said:


> Kennas, that spike up and forming of a large pennant (particularly if messy) is a more reliable pattern to break the other way if I remember correctly from Radge.
> 
> Seems pretty 50/50 to me from watching intraday timeframes, but I do like the traditional high tight flag.  Reasonably reliable.




Patterns can be understood with the use of an indicator. Price action alone is guessing on a grand scale. It is not about right or wrong but knowing what is happening.

If Michael suggests indicators are useless then he has a lot to learn. However, trading simply by taking a signal from an indicator only is mental gullibility of the foolish. 

By choosing an indicator one has to ask themselves what is the indicator telling them, what is its construction, and what is its role in being profitable?


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## MRC & Co (30 November 2008)

professor_frink said:


> Linda Bradford Raschke(I think I've spelt that correctly)




Out of interest professor, which indicators does Rschke use?


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## professor_frink (30 November 2008)

MRC & Co said:


> Out of interest professor, which indicators does Rschke use?




you're testing my memory out a bit here, but I think she had one setup called the holy grail that involved an ema and the adx.

There has been mention of an oscillator as well, but can't for the life of me remember what is was.

edit: here you go - 

http://www.lbrgroup.com/images///raschke_pt2_0304.pdf


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## MRC & Co (30 November 2008)

The holy grail setup, ha ha ha ha, I thought it was a joke until I skim read the link!

Cheers for the link, I will give it a good read.  

I know she is big into the market internals.


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## amory (30 November 2008)

Raschke, eh?  she's good, no doubt about it.  but is the average trader going to set up all these computers & monitors?  Benn isn't, he wants to keep it simple.  

well, the news is all good Benn!  the very first item in her bag of tricks ... I looked up the Professors link ... refers to both the 3/10 EOD lines & the MacD.  

_<< 1. 3-10 oscillator. The 3-10 oscillator
is “something I’ve been using since
1981,” Raschke says. “It’s the difference
between a three-day simple
moving average and a 10-day simple
moving average. Plus, there’s a second
line which is a 16-period simple
moving average of the 3-10 line. >>_

what did I tell you?  the 3 breaks thru the 10 & that's a signal!  Linda presents it in a slightly different way but the idea is the same.  if you want to look up the rest of it I'm afraid you will get confused & discouraged.

but you did mention Coppock.  so there you go:  the 3/10 & the coppock, as good a pair of indicators as any.  mind you, they will only rarely give a signal at the same time.  very few indicators do.  the MacD is more likely to go with the 3/10, both being short-term signals.

still would like to know how you expect to identify the stocks where the signals match up.


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## BBand (30 November 2008)

Traders successfully using indicators use them because they understand their construction, they are after all just a filter.

They work well when they are applied properly i.e. indicators designed for trending markets (e.g. m.a.'s) provide many whipsaws when used in range bound markets
Similarly indicators designed for range bound markets (e.g. stochastics osc.) becomes saturated in a strongly trending market.
There are exceptions of course e.g. Bollinger Bands which have very good predictive capabilities as well as buy and sell signals across both trending and ranging markets. MACD is another.
Like any method, the more experience that you have using it, your interpretation/ use becomes that much better

Indicators work well with basic chart analysis support/resistance, candlestick patterns etc

Like most (every?) type of signal, its best to have confluence with signals generated by another method, before taking a signal, the bar following the signal bar should show signs of follow through at least at the open.

However, if you are not comfortable using indicators - DON'T USE THEM!
Whatever trading methodology you use - it MUST fit your personality/psychy


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## MichaelD (30 November 2008)

It's Snake Pliskin said:


> If Michael suggests indicators are useless then he has a lot to learn.




Erm - I don't ever recall saying anything of the sort. (See next point).



BBand said:


> Traders successfully using indicators use them because they understand their construction




I use indicators to trade, but apart from my long term trend following system (wherein the edge is in the money management), they are used in unconventional ways. Those that trade solely using indicators conventionally to provide an edge are doomed.


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## BBand (30 November 2008)

"They are used in unconventional ways"
Yes , yes, yes Michael this is how I use a couple of them - I've made them my own and I have total faith in them.

However, this comes from a lot of time put in experimenting and observing. Newbies have to start somewhere though. 

People buy systems that have a proven track record of profitability - yet for some reason they cannot generate a profit using them - why is this?

It does not fit their psychy!

A pure waste of money.
The best methodology is one which you design for yourself .

I don't know if good traders are borne that way, or if its something that they have to develop
I'm a reasonable trader, but I could be lots better, and its taken me years to get to the stage where I am. 

Becoming a good trader takes years of hard work, its not as simple as some people would have you believe
Professionals love newbies, the more the better

However putting in the hard yards is recommended, take your time, trade small, very small, until you get established. The results are well worth the effort.


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## amory (30 November 2008)

amidst all this philosophical input, it would be nice if one could hear from Benn again.  after all, he's the one started it all.  more specifically I should very much welcome a reply to my question & which was:

... still would like to know how you expect to identify the stocks where the signals match up.


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## MichaelD (1 December 2008)

amory said:


> ... still would like to know how you expect to identify the stocks where the signals match up.




I think he wants them handed to him on a plate.


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## Naked shorts (1 December 2008)

MichaelD said:


> I think he wants them handed to him on a plate.




The snawsberries take like snawsberries


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## sails (1 December 2008)

amory said:


> ... still would like to know how you expect to identify the stocks where the signals match up.




LOL guys 

Amory - most use software to search for stocks meeting their signal criteria.  There are many available, but Incredible Charts is one that's free and has scanning capabilities and probably a good place to start...


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## amory (1 December 2008)

you are absolutely right Sails & we all use one system or another to help us in our search.  but one still would have liked to know how Benn intends to go about it, seeing that "...i have no charting program at home and don't want one either" ... as he puts it.  so its not much use suggesting Incredible Charts etc is it?


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## sails (1 December 2008)

amory said:


> you are absolutely right Sails & we all use one system or another to help us in our search.  but one still would have liked to know how Benn intends to go about it, seeing that "...i have no charting program at home and don't want one either" ... as he puts it.  so its not much use suggesting Incredible Charts etc is it?




Yes, sorry - didn't read the whole thread


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## amory (1 December 2008)

just for fun I'll show a Metastock formula for Coppock.  like all good indicators, there are two important signals to watch out for: 1) any change of direction & 2) break thru zero.

it will be noticed that I have de-activated the last couple of lines by means of brackets { } but that's just a matter of personal taste. 

(ROC(CLOSE,9,percent )*8 + 
ROC(CLOSE,5,percent)*8 + 
ROC(Ref(CLOSE,-1),9,percent)*7 + ROC(Ref(CLOSE,-1),5,percent)*7 + ROC(Ref(CLOSE,-2),9,percent)*6 + ROC(Ref(CLOSE,-2),5,percent)*6 + ROC(Ref(CLOSE,-3),9,percent)*5 + ROC(Ref(CLOSE,-3),5,percent)*5 + ROC(Ref(CLOSE,-4),9,percent)*4 + ROC(Ref(CLOSE,-4),5,percent)*4 + ROC(Ref(CLOSE,-5),9,percent)*3 + ROC(Ref(CLOSE,-5),5,percent)*3 + ROC(Ref(CLOSE,-6),9,percent)*2 + ROC(Ref(CLOSE,-6),5,percent)*2 + ROC(Ref(CLOSE,-7),9,percent) + ROC(Ref(CLOSE,-7),5,percent))/3 
{+ROC(Ref(CLOSE,-8),14,percent)*2 + ROC(Ref(CLOSE,-8),11,percent)*2 + ROC(Ref(CLOSE,-9),14,percent) + ROC(Ref(CLOSE,-9),11,percent)/2)}

it's a reasonably complicated formula, but on chart it comes up clearly at a glance.  what more can anyone ask?


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## amory (1 December 2008)

still on Coppock... well, that formula is actually not a MS formula, its only written in MS language - can't remember where I came across it.

but Coppock is mentioned in Incredible Charts, with the following specifications: 

_<< To calculate the Coppock Indicator:

Calculate 14 month Rate of Change (Price) for the index. Use monthly closing price.

Calculate 11 month Rate of Change (Price) for the index. Use monthly closing price.

Add the results of 1 and 2.

Calculate a 10 month weighted moving average of the result. 
There are a number of variations in calculation. For a more timely signal, try substituting the daily equivalent in place of monthly figures: 294 day ROC, 231 day ROC and 210 day weighted moving averages. >>_

... and I seem to remember they describe it as slow but reliable.  which would make it ideal for the long-term investor/trader.


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## MS+Tradesim (1 December 2008)

Pairs Trader said:


> you will never meet a millionaire trader who uses indicators its just the reality.




Since I know for a fact that this is not true, I have to assume that you are simply speaking from your experience - but as someone already pointed out, absolute language creates traps as only one exception need be found to invalidate the claim.

I would say indicators as popularly used have limited value. For example, I've lost track of the number of times people on this forum have said things like "The RSI(14) is way oversold. Expect a reversal." But this indicator can spend significant amounts of time in overbought/oversold territory -  and the overbought/oversold areas are largely arbitrary. Who decides what makes an instrument overbought/oversold? How many people have actually extensively back tested an indicator on its own to determine validity from its supposed signals? If you are going to use indicators, it is important to find those (and values) which work for the instrument/market you are trading and know why they work and when they are likely to fail.


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## BBand (1 December 2008)

*COPPOCK INDICATOR*
This is an indicator used by Colin Nicholson, in his book "The Aggressive Investor" page 72.

He mentions that "readers are invited to download an Excel spreadsheet from the _Data Files _page of www.bwts.com.au that shows each step of the calculation, including the weighted moving average, and has over 100years of historical data for several market indexes"

He mentions that the Coppock was designed to buy early in a bull market with the professionals.

Don't know much about this indicator, but remembered that I had seen something on this in Colins book.

Anyway, a visit to his web site may help


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## benn (2 December 2008)

MichaelD said:


> I think he wants them handed to him on a plate.




haha. nah of course i dont want them handed on a plate. this has been good reading. i was trying to say that when i had someone go through an excel sheet of the coppock indicator i was amazed at its accuracy and that i intend to use it from now on. 

I realise i need some technical indicators for share purchases as this past year i have been throwing good money after bad as the stocks continue down. 
"I really should wait till the t/a indicators turn up before buying more stock", i thought to myself as the light bulb turned on.

So just wanted to see if there were any other tried and tested indicators that are basic but get the job done for a time poor long term investor who's a newbie in his low 20's. Made 150k from margin loans back in the boom period then lost most of it not knowing when to get out. 

Which brings me to my other concern. The coppock apparently was designed for long term investors and signals the time to buy at the end of a bear market.  What sort of signals/indicators are out there for when to EXIT? ie. liquidate your entire portfolio as something bad might be out there. My thoughts after this year is get out of every stock when there are the first signs of a US recession after a bull run.


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## It's Snake Pliskin (2 December 2008)

benn said:


> haha. nah of course i dont want them handed on a plate. this has been good reading. i was trying to say that when i had someone go through an excel sheet of the coppock indicator i was amazed at its accuracy and that *i intend to use it from now on*.
> 
> I realise i need some technical indicators for share purchases as this past year i have been throwing good money after bad as the stocks continue down.
> *"I really should wait till the t/a indicators turn up before buying more stock"*, i thought to myself as the light bulb turned on.
> ...




Re: red points:
1. Do you know how it is constructed and what it is used for? And is that use correct or just what the default majority say?
2. Why? 
3. Try many hours of understanding the markets first. Not only watching or reading charts regardless of time frame, but also researching a lot.


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## Naked shorts (3 December 2008)

benn said:


> Which brings me to my other concern. The coppock apparently was designed for long term investors and signals the time to buy at the end of a bear market.  What sort of signals/indicators are out there for when to EXIT? ie. liquidate your entire portfolio as something bad might be out there. My thoughts after this year is get out of every stock when there are the first signs of a US recession after a bull run.




You should already have an exit point before you enter your trade.
Ever heard the cliche, "plan your trade, trade your plan".

Once you get better and better, you can start cutting off loosing trades because you will know through experience that you will keep losing if you stay in.


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## kam75 (3 December 2008)

Pairs Trader said:


> Indicators are useless, they look good on historical charts but trading the hard right edge your way behind the ball with indicators, you only need price action, support, resistence, trend, volatility and how a stock reacts to news to gauge good entry points, also fade big moves on light volume, you will never meet a millionaire trader who uses indicators its just the reality.




On Balance Volume when combined with the action of price can at times be a very effective, leading indicator.  For example, if price is going sideways in a congestion zone but OBV is rising, you know that the next move is likeky to be a breakout to the upside.
regards


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## Naked shorts (3 December 2008)

lol I just thought up a new indicator. I wrote up a formula for it and gave it a name....i have since found out it already has a name. VSA


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## MRC & Co (3 December 2008)

lol, you can't apply a formula to VSA and it's not an indicator as such.

It's an entire array of analysis on it's own.  

Benn, if you wait until most indicators 'turn up', you will probably be buying the lower high.


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## Naked shorts (3 December 2008)

MRC & Co said:


> lol, you can't apply a formula to VSA and it's not an indicator as such.
> 
> It's an entire array of analysis on it's own.




Well thats good, I can go back and name my own indicator:


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## MRC & Co (3 December 2008)

Naked shorts said:


> Well thats good, I can go back and name my own indicator:




You sure can.  Release it to the retail market, show some examples of when it has worked and convince them it's the grail.  Sure to get some excited and some who actually make some money off it, who will then go and spread it to the rest of the worthy followers, ready to be enlightened!  

Disclaimer:  Indicators, like anything in trading, have their moments they work and their moments they don't.  Determining when they work or not or finding a way to profit out of it (positive expectancy blah blah), is the riddle.


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## Naked shorts (3 December 2008)

MRC & Co said:


> You sure can.  Release it to the retail market, show some examples of when it has worked and convince them it's the grail.  Sure to get some excited and some who actually make some money off it, who will then go and spread it to the rest of the worthy followers, ready to be enlightened!
> 
> Disclaimer:  Indicators, like anything in trading, have their moments they work and their moments they don't.  Determining when they work or not or finding a way to profit out of it (positive expectancy blah blah), is the riddle.




Im working on my seminar and book right now:


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## MRC & Co (3 December 2008)

Naked shorts said:


> Im working on my seminar and book right now:




ha ha, good work!  You will probably make more than us traders!  

On another note, one reason I like pure price action, as opposed to traditional TA or indicators, is you can simply view past charts in your timeframe and look for reliable patterns.  You will then know what you are looking for in the trade and see what has been reliable lately.  The markets and their price action are always changing, have to keep up with recent patterns IMO.

One example lately, look for the SPI to fall, form a bearish flag, then rally hard (simply a bull trap or squeeze), taking out all weak shorts, before it will then go on and continue it's merry way down.

I like to call it my BS flag fall off cliff indicator.  

Sometimes you see it with a rounding top too, but they are more simple legit rounding tops these days.

Oh, can't recall seeing these in a book either.  Maybe if I read some more books...............?


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## Naked shorts (4 December 2008)

MRC & Co said:


> I like to call it my BS flag fall off cliff indicator.




lol hahaha, how many times did it catch you out before you caught on? (I can sense pain/anger/omfgwtf in that name)


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## MRC & Co (4 December 2008)

Naked shorts said:


> lol hahaha, how many times did it catch you out before you caught on? (I can sense pain/anger/omfgwtf in that name)




Don't think it caught me out much at all.  It's pretty quick to notice, you just look for any kind of BS move and fade it.


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## MichaelD (4 December 2008)

benn said:


> "I really should wait till the t/a indicators turn up before buying more stock", i thought to myself as the light bulb turned on.
> 
> What sort of signals/indicators are out there for when to EXIT?




Hmmm - we have almost come full circle, have we not? What is it that more-or-less all technical indicators are derived from?

Exits are very good indeed to think about - there is much to read here at ASF on exits.

Here's some basic trading rules that are universally applicable. Figure how to trade in a way compatible with these rules and you will do much better;

1. Price going up = Buy, Price going down = Sell.
2. Let your winners run and cut your losers short.

There you go - the holy grails of trading, almost totally ignored by most traders to their peril.


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## MRC & Co (4 December 2008)

MichaelD said:


> 1. Price going up = Buy, Price going down = Sell.
> 2. Let your winners run and cut your losers short.
> 
> There you go - the holy grails of trading, almost totally ignored by most traders to their peril.




Yep, but I would add, know the difference on when to let your winners run and when to tighten up stops to lock in profits.

This can be done by fragmenting your lots (taking some off the table as your trade goes into profit) and/or using simple trend structure.  Trend structure can be viewed over on thechartist.com.au in the free materials section.

Link:  http://www.thechartist.com.au/papers/Jan_06.pdf


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## amory (5 December 2008)

Benn:  _"Which brings me to my other concern. The coppock apparently was designed for long term investors and signals the time to buy at the end of a bear market. What sort of signals/indicators are out there for when to EXIT? ie. liquidate your entire portfolio as something bad might be out there. My thoughts after this year is get out of every stock when there are the first signs of a US recession after a bull run."_

if you believe in your indicator(s) then the time to exit would work on the same principle .. upbreak/downbreak.

I have spent an hour backtesting the Coppock on BHP, using the formula previously posted, on daily/weekly & monthly basis.  came to the conclusion that it works best on weekly if its longterm signals you are after.  ignoring fluctuations & *only going by when it breaks up or down thru zero, *it would have got you out of BHP around $40 in early july & no re-entry since then.

but the *levelling-out & mild downturn from the top *would have got you out in the mid-forties, a month earlier!  currently, its in an upturn but nowhere near that all-important break thru zero.  

that's on the *weekly* .. on the daily, the signals are more frequent but less convincing.  one will have to do some more work on that, testing it against a few other stocks & indices.

and by the way, that's quite good advice from MRC & MichaelD!  one will have to think about that too.


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## wayneL (5 December 2008)

Are cab drivers considered T/A or F/A? :


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## barney (5 December 2008)

wayneL said:


> Are cab drivers considered T/A or F/A? :




Definitely F/A, cause most of them don't use "indicators"

Good to see you back Wayne


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## It's Snake Pliskin (10 December 2008)

amory said:


> Benn:  _"Which brings me to my other concern. The coppock apparently was designed for long term investors and signals the time to buy at the end of a bear market. What sort of signals/indicators are out there for when to EXIT? ie. liquidate your entire portfolio as something bad might be out there. My thoughts after this year is get out of every stock when there are the first signs of a US recession after a bull run."_
> 
> if you believe in your indicator(s) then the time to exit would work on the same principle .. upbreak/downbreak.
> 
> ...




Good post Amory,

With your testing of the daily time frame what issues do see limiting using the coppock? You said less convincing - what do you really mean by that?


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## It's Snake Pliskin (10 December 2008)

wayneL said:


> Are cab drivers considered T/A or F/A? :



Don't tell anyone they call talk back radio


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## amory (10 December 2008)

It's Snake Pliskin said:


> Good post Amory,
> 
> With your testing of the daily time frame what issues do see limiting using the coppock? You said less convincing - what do you really mean by that?




Thank you Snake.  Less convincing simply means (a) it doesn't always work or (b) it doesn't work well using (bi) a specific time frame or (bii) using the bend at the top or bottom, rather than the actual breakthru zero which is supposed to be the crucial point.

Coppock has been discussed on various forums & there are definitely some investors who wouldn't leave home without it.  I have recently posted a Metastock formula, if you haven't seen it I'll be happy to post it here.

"The best T/A indicators" as per the title of this thread, needs definition.  certain indicators may be foolproof watertight ... but they are not always the fastest.  others ... Macd, RSI etc ... give you really early warning, but is it always reliable?

another thing you've got to consider:  do you want to work with for instance RSI (10) or (15) or (20) ... you will get different results!  likewise if you vary the timing of the signal-line ... that's the one showing where the vital breakthru is going to be.  

just summing up then:  Coppock break-thru zero on the weekly chart is as good a medium term indicator as any ... I hope.


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## It's Snake Pliskin (11 December 2008)

amory said:


> Thank you Snake.  Less convincing simply means (a) it doesn't always work or (b) it doesn't work well using (bi) a specific time frame or (bii) using the bend at the top or bottom, rather than the actual breakthru zero which is supposed to be the crucial point.
> 
> Coppock has been discussed on various forums & there are definitely some investors who wouldn't leave home without it.  I have recently posted a Metastock formula, if you haven't seen it I'll be happy to post it here.
> 
> ...




That is a good response Amory. Thanks.


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