# QAN - Qantas Airways



## GreatPig (20 August 2004)

Darn.... Qantas is not playing the game ;D.

I was hoping for it to go back to the top of the channel, but instead it's decided to drop out and is currently sitting at $3.18.

Okay, so there's a head and shoulders there - perhaps I should take more notice of what I'm reading :.

Cheers,
GP


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## stefan (20 August 2004)

*Re: Qantas not exactly flying*

While announcing record profits, the cautious outlook they released certainly gave the whole thing a negative touch. If you read their statement you feel like those "oil country" airlines will destroy anybody else.

Happy trading

Stefan


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## GreatPig (20 August 2004)

*Re: Qantas not exactly flying*

Well it recovered right back to the support line, but there was a big dip there for a while.

I think I'll wait and see what tomorrow brings now before deciding whether or not to dump it.

Cheers,
GP


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## stefan (20 August 2004)

*Re: Qantas not exactly flying*

Where did you buy it?
I for one would dump it at the next small increase. Not a time to hold airlines when fuel is costing a fortune.

Happy trading

Stefan


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## GreatPig (20 August 2004)

*Re: Qantas not exactly flying*



			
				stefan said:
			
		

> Where did you buy it?



At $3.35 last week.

I'll see tomorrow morning if it starts going up again or diving.

Cheers,
GP


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## stefan (21 August 2004)

*Re: Qantas not exactly flying*

Quickly went above 3.3 this mornig. Did you get rid of them or did you decide to hold on?




> SYDNEY, Aug 20 AAP - Qantas Airways Ltd today raised the fuel surcharge on its domestic and international tickets by $4 and $7, respectively, because of the high price of oil which overnight topped $US48 per barrel.
> The domestic fuel surcharge will rise to $10 from the $6 per sector charge introduced in May.
> The surcharge on international sectors will rise to $22 from $15.




That may help the price a bit...

Happy trading

Stefan


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## GreatPig (21 August 2004)

*Re: Qantas not exactly flying*

Stefan,

Nah, I got rid of them. Overall signs weren't looking too healthy.

So now of course they'll skyrocket ;D.

GP


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## stefan (21 August 2004)

*Re: Qantas not exactly flying*

Hm, maybe you should tell me before you dump a stock so that I can get a few and profit from the rise  ;D

Anyway, good choice to dump them.

Happy trading

Stefan


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## TraderPro (11 June 2006)

This thread hasn't been updated for a while so here's an update about the Qantas stock price movement.

Basically the stock price peaked at $4.29 then in March began a long term downtrend.


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## GreatPig (22 July 2006)

Currently back around $3 and potentially forming a double bottom (too early to say for sure yet though).






$3 or there-abouts is also a longer-term support level that's only been broken 2 or 3 times since 1999.






As I'm learning about options and warrants, I decided to buy a few $3 Nov6 call warrants for $0.12 each (QANWOL). I think I'm the first person to trade this particular warrant - not sure if that's a bad sign or not.  Anyway, I've only bought 30,000 warrants for a total cost of $3600 plus brokerage, so I'm not overly worried about potential losses. The two bottoms are at around $2.90, so that's my stop level.

I don't know much about the fundamentals of Qantas, other than that their costs must be increasing due to rising fuel prices, but I'm interested to see what happens.

Cheers,
GP


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## Fab (17 August 2006)

Qantas up in strong volume after announcing 26.60% drop in profit. Why ?? I was expecting it to go down ?


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## dutchie (17 August 2006)

G'day GreatPig

The two greatest problems for Qantas are rising oil prices and fear of travel. Both would currently be high risk I would think. Price has been down to $2.5.

QAN's LT share price sure is erratic.

Your tight SL is prudent. Good luck with them.

Cheers

Dutchie


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## GreatPig (17 August 2006)

Unfortunately I sold that warrant a while ago. If this breakout looks like it might be starting another uptrend though, I'll look at possibly buying back in.

Not buying anything today now though while the index is hovering under the 5000 mark in case we end up back at 4900 tomorrow 

Cheers,
GP


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## GreatPig (17 August 2006)

Yes, shoulda kept that warrant...

GP


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## Fab (17 August 2006)

Now how do you translate this red and green sticks on your graph. What are buying and selling signs ?


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## GreatPig (17 August 2006)

The colours have nothing to do with buy or sell signals. Green just indicates a day that closed higher than the open while red is the opposite. Standard candlestick charting (although not necessarily those particular colours).

Cheers,
GP


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## 168 (21 October 2006)

Nothing to do with the charts but what do you guys and gals think of the 340 Australian IT jobs offshore ?

Should we be happy that stock may give a better dividend or should we worry that our next generation will be disadvantaged permanently i.e. future IT jobs will be lost to our children?

Your thoughts are soughted.


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## rosie (21 October 2006)

I think it sucks...Banks are guility of the same process.


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## rosie (21 October 2006)

Qan monthly.


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## Dr Doom (21 October 2006)

My guess is that this week will make or break QAN, judging by the 3 retracements to the 3.90 area and back to resistance at 4.20. Some rounding of the top also. Not sure the fundamentals are stacking up though, apart form the oil price coming off a bit. Anyhow, somebody must like it over the last couple of months to explain for the steep rise. Time to take profits or short?.


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## Kauri (22 November 2006)

Did I just hear on the radio that QAN has recieved a T/O offer from the big Mac???


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## scsl (22 November 2006)

Kauri said:
			
		

> Did I just hear on the radio that QAN has recieved a T/O offer from the big Mac???



QAN have been 'approached' by MacBank and Texas Pacific Group, but no further details have been given. 

A senior institutional trader said Tuesday there was speculation Macquarie was preparing a A$5.50 a share cash offer for Qantas, which would value the airline at A$10.9 billion.


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## chansw (22 November 2006)

http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601087&sid=aEZCSR29_6Oc&refer=home

*Qantas Approached by Macquarie Bank, Texas Pacific (Update2) * 

By Vesna Poljak

Nov. 22 (Bloomberg) -- Qantas Airways Ltd., Australia's biggest airline, received a takeover approach from Macquarie Bank Ltd. and Texas Pacific Group, sparking a 16 percent gain in its shares. 

``The approach is confidential and incomplete,'' Sydney-based Qantas said in a statement today. The biggest gain in the share price in 5 1/2 years lifted the airline's market value to A$10 billion ($7.7 billion). 

An offer for Qantas would follow other bids by Macquarie Bank for high-profile assets, including the London Stock Exchange and the Indiana Toll Road. Funds the bank manages own assets include Sydney airport. 

``For Macquarie there's obviously a cross-interest in that they also manage airports, including Sydney,'' said Ian Thomas, a senior consultant at the Centre for Asia-Pacific Aviation in Sydney. ``For Qantas, it may provide them with a way of accessing more foreign capital.'' 

An offer would have to be structured to overcome government- imposed limits on Qantas, restricting any single investor to a 25 percent stake, and capping combined foreign investment at 49 percent. 

Matthew Russell, a spokesman for Sydney-based Macquarie Bank, the nation's biggest securities firm, didn't immediately return a call seeking comment. 

Qantas Chief Executive Officer Geoff Dixon has forecast the airline's profit will increase this year, even as his fuel bill rises to a record, as he cuts jobs and adds new customers with discount carrier Jetstar. 

The airline's fuel bill will rise to A$3.9 billion in 2007 from A$2.8 billion last year. Qantas in August reported 2006 profit fell 30 percent to A$479.5 million in the year ended June 30, with labor and fuel making up about 50 percent of expenses. 

Qantas shares rose 75 cents to A$5.10 at 11:03 a.m. in Sydney. Before today, Qantas stock had risen 7.8 percent this year, lagging behind the benchmark S&P/ASX 200 Index's 14 percent gain. 

Qantas is the third-biggest airline in the Asia-Pacific region by sales, trailing Japan Airlines Corp. and All Nippon Airways Co. according to Bloomberg data.


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## chansw (22 November 2006)

How can the takeover happen? At least, it won't be a 100% takeover. Any one has any view on it?

*Australia will keep flying roo: Vaile*
November 22, 2006 01:43pm
http://www.news.com.au/business/story/0,23636,20801989-462,00.html

DEPUTY Prime Minister Mark Vaile has said he is confident Qantas will remain in Australian hands.

A consortium led by Macquarie Bank and US private equity firm Texas Pacific Group has made an approach for a takeover bid, sending shares in Australia's biggest airline soaring to record levels. 

Qantas and Macquarie have both declined to comment. 

Mr Vaile, who is also Transport and Regional Services Minister, said today it was up to shareholders and the board to decide on the bid. 

"On the commercial side, it is for the board of Qantas and the shareholders of Qantas as to what they do,'' Mr Vaile said in Brisbane. 

Since the privatisation of the airline, the Government had maintained its individual shareholding cap at 25 per cent and foreign ownership cap at 49 per cent, he said. 

"There is no view to changing any of those caps,'' Mr Vaile said. 

"At the same time, obviously, shareholders have individual rights and if they can capitalise on interest in a well-run company, well that's up to the shareholders and up to the marketplace.'' 

Mr Vaile said the Government would continue to play its role as government regulator of the airline industry on behalf of the people of Australia. 

He said a proposal from offshore investors to buy Coles Myer also had not materialised and like the retailer, Qantas was also expected to remain in Australian hands. 

"I think there will always be a significant level of Australian ownership,'' Mr Vaile said. 

"Obviously, with the foreign ownership cap, there will always be a majority Australian ownership of Qantas. 

"But I can confidentially predict you will never see the (flying kangaroo) moved off the tail of Qantas aircraft.''


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## swingstar (22 November 2006)

Up 15%. I knew I should have bought calls the other day on the rumour.


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## chansw (23 November 2006)

*Bid challenges Aussie ownership*
By Terry McCrann
November 23, 2006 12:00am
http://www.news.com.au/business/story/0,23636,20805633-521,00.html

THE $11 billion move by Macquarie Bank and Texas Pacific on Qantas is an extraordinary cocktail of straightforward "plain vanilla" private equity profit-seeking and a much more complicated play.

That's to say, it has the same essential ingredients of the two media private equity deals and the one proposed for and rejected by Coles. 

The business is taken out of the public marketplace; it is loaded up with debt; the cashflow over the next three to five years is all directed at paying off the debt while it is also, hopefully, made much more profitable; then it is sold or refloated at a big profit. 

So, you buy Qantas today at $11billion and sell it back in five years at $20 billion. 

Qantas though is both different from and very special to Nine and Seven and Coles. That makes the deal much more complicated. 

It operates under much more strict ownership rules, which are a key component of its actual operating business. They are also critical to any value-creating mergers or acquisitions. 

The requirement that Qantas remains 51 per cent Australian-owned - which has driven the bidding structure - is not based solely on national jingoism or emotionalism. 

But because 51 per cent Australian ownership is the basis for its global operations. That gets it access to routes and landing slots; and in turn structures its competitive environment. 

So Texas Pacific could not just take a 50-50 partner as KKR did with Kerry Stokes at Seven and CVC Pacific with James Packer at PBL. Far less go for a much cleaner 100 per cent as the KKR-led consortium want to do with Coles. 

This combines with the absence of an obvious core Packer/Stokes - has to be Aussie - partner anyway. Instead, there is Macquarie. 

Enter the two government-mandated restrictions. That no one shareholder can own more than 25 per cent and total foreign ownership can't go above that 49 per cent which would deprive Qantas of all its international operating rights. 

So we have a very unusual combination. Macquarie will take the maximum 25 per cent, "other" Aussie investors will take 25 per cent, and the Texas Pacific group will take a total 49 per cent with 1 per cent for staff. 

It mightn't seem different from the other partnerships, but it definitely is.


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## Bazmate (5 October 2007)

What's going on with Qantas these days??

It used to be my favorite little blue chip with good incomes pushing the price up one week and SARS, oil price or terrorism pushing it down the next...

It's almost boring now, I held through the takeover turmoil and sold a few months ago at a tidy profit but at the same price as today, expecting it to drop like it usually does.... 

Perhaps QAN's drop has been offset by the share buybacks, which are increasing debt at a time when debt providers could be heading for troubled times...

Guess I'll hang on the sideline for a bit longer.


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## vishalt (5 October 2007)

Baz take a look at some other airliner shares, in Australia and the world. 

They suck because the industry is one of the most fiercely competetive ones so there's no monopoly to invest in (like BHP, Apple, Mobil) etc, Qantas shareholders were just lucky that APA came to kick the share price up the ass.. infact I reckon thats the only reason they did it because airliners shares are just awful. 

If I were you I'd just go with just buying Boeing's shares as air traffic/travel volume is increasing and Boeing is winning so many contracts especially with dreamliner coming soon.


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## Awesomandy (6 October 2007)

vishalt said:


> If I were you I'd just go with just buying Boeing's shares as air traffic/travel volume is increasing and Boeing is winning so many contracts especially with dreamliner coming soon.




I would think that this has already factored into Boeing's sp. They are definitely winning a lot of contracts though, mainly due to Airbus's refusal/inability to design a completely new plan in this class - the A350 reuses the A330's fuselage. So, until Airbus comes up with something new, they just can't compete.


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## vishalt (6 October 2007)

I don't believe its been factored in Boeing's share price. 

Once the Dreamliner comes out and everyone sees how awesome it is, everyone will want to buy more. EADS (owner of Airbus) has also been hit with corporate scandals so that gives reasons for people interested in buying shares of airline manufacturers a reason to change. 

Boeing also makes defense aircraft and with a good economy, a war and other countries beefing up security Boeing has a lot on its plate and even more to come.


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## Pager (9 January 2008)

QAN came close to a disaster last week in Thailand! Thankfully all was OK, funny though I never heard anything about this in Australia.

http://bangkokpost.com/topstories/topstories.php?id=124968


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## niknah (9 January 2008)

Apparently, it's not the only time, just that this time it's happened while the plane was flying...

http://www.smh.com.au/articles/2008/01/09/1199554708603.html?page=2

This also co-incides with an engineers' union overtime ban which was to start today but will start on Friday.


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## JPC (21 February 2008)

*Finally some good news...*

Qantas Airways Ltd., Australia's biggest airline, gained 2.3 percent to A$4.45 after first-half profit doubled to a record as it cut fuel costs and economic growth boosted passenger traffic. ..


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## somesortoftrader (4 March 2008)

Does anyone have a comment on the share buy-back happening at QAN. 
I would have thought that the SP should be increasing as the company owns more of itself?


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## Birdster (4 March 2008)

somesortoftrader said:


> Does anyone have a comment on the share buy-back happening at QAN.
> I would have thought that the SP should be increasing as the company owns more of itself?




I would hazard a guess that rising fuel costs and the high AUD are having an effect to the price. The market is in down swing o/all atm. Also, has recently gone xd. Could be all of these, none of these and maybe some others. Only a spectator atm anyway.


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## Bazmate (16 June 2008)

Methinks it might be time to revisit Qantas..

It has to be the best of the airlines with respect to high fuel cost due to hedging and lets face it, the business community are still travelling.

Incidently, I think there shouldn't be much of a slow down in private travel either since in many cases it still cost as much to drive from A to B than it does to fly.

$3.30 share price, P/E of 6 odd and 7% dividend yield look pretty good to me.

Risks with industrial action.... what's new!
Risks of a new CEO next year.. could be a factor

any other thoughts?


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## malachii (16 June 2008)

If you want to buy into an airline then IMHO Qantas would be the one to buy into....

HOWEVER.......

I would question the sanity of anyone who actually voluntarily buys into an airline (including Qantas)!!  There are so many challenges/issues/problems in aviation even when things are good.  When they turn bad (as they are currently starting too) ...Oh boy... Problems like unions and new CEOs are minor.  If these were the only challenges facing Qantas I'd be saying go for it - BUT they're not by a long shot.  So I don't have to repeat myself and bore people again have a look in the Virgin thread - this might give you some idea of my BIASED opinions.

malachii


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## golfmos123 (17 June 2008)

Aside from the outlined risks in buying into aviation stocks, there is one very good reason to buy into QAN at the moment...... and that is if you think the price of oil is about to drop.  Every time oil falls, QAN (and other stocks highly influenced by it) will rise.  I have traded QAN a couple of times in the last month or so buying when I think the oil price is going to retreat.


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## mfsperth (3 November 2008)

*Qantas*

Just as well Qantas shareholders rejected the KKR private equity (usually funded from debt) offer for Qantas.

Search the web for Business Week 15. 5. 06 and Kohlberg Kravis Roberts.
KKR is now offering public shares through Amsterdam.

Quote from Business Week: "And by listing in Amsterdam, KKR stays insulated from SarbOx and other U.S. rules. In this novel deal, it'll use what one observer calls "dumber money" -- from public investors -- to finance deals from which private partners could reap windfalls, without divulging too many things they want kept private."


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## Aussiejeff (19 December 2008)

golfmos123 said:


> Aside from the outlined risks in buying into aviation stocks, there is one very good reason to buy into QAN at the moment...... and that is if you think the price of oil is about to drop.  *Every time oil falls, QAN (and other stocks highly influenced by it) will rise*.  I have traded QAN a couple of times in the last month or so buying when I think the oil price is going to retreat.




Sadly, that theory seems to have failed.

In mid-September QAN SP was around $3.50. It is now under $2.50. What happened to the POO since then? Crashed through the floor! Yet QAN also fell 30%. If only SP vs POO correlations were that simple, eh? 

I hope QAN shareholders have adopted the correct seating position in preparation for todays SP crash landing following the failure of the BA merger.

aj
(non-holder)


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## Aussiejeff (19 December 2008)

Aussiejeff said:


> Sadly, that theory seems to have failed.
> 
> In mid-September QAN SP was around $3.50. It is now under $2.50. What happened to the POO since then? Crashed through the floor! Yet QAN also fell 30%. If only SP vs POO correlations were that simple, eh?
> 
> ...




*M-M-m-m-m*! Tasty! (just finished polishing off my hat, since I was forced to eat it when I checked the SP!) 

Obviously, all QAN shareholders HATED the merger plan. 

Cheers,

aj


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## cuttlefish (19 December 2008)

Got to say I'm pretty surprised by that as well, after reading about the merger being canned last night I assumed it would gap down on the open as well. (didn't follow it today though).


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## investorpaul (18 May 2009)

Any current opinions on this stock?

I have it on my watch list to short once it closes below $1.90 (hopefully any day now).

Besides my interpretation of the chart, the basis for the trade is a cross over of the 12/26 MACD and also RSI crossing below 50.


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## StockDigger (11 June 2011)

*QAN - Qantas*

Look like Qantas will be the next Ansett. Share price slumped to lowest point. Closed at $1.890. 
Oil prices predicted to increase this near future. The CEO keep down talking and trashing the brand. Union disputes keep going on. A380 delayed. Operating cost increase. 
VBA and Delta just being approved. WOW

I guess this week going to be a hell sell out on QAN.  Should have sold with a low profit. QAN down trend continuing.


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## nulla nulla (11 June 2011)

Please secure your dining trays, return your seat to the upright position; fasten your seat belt; assume the crash position and kiss your **** goodbye. Loosing altitude and no prospects of zooming back into clear blue skies in the immediate future.

Oil prices are over u.s$100.00 per barrell; Virgin has spread it's .... wings and is expanding with links to Singapore Airlines, Air New Zealand and Delta; The aud$ has risen above parity with the u.s$ and international tourism is in the doldrums. Boing is having problems delivering 777's and Airbus has issues with the rolls royce engines in the 360. And no dividends.

I suppose everyone is shorting qan atm?


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## boofhead (11 June 2011)

Qantas is trying to make some plays to get more of the fly in-fly out mining pie. It needs to gets some success there - get a slice of the boom.

I'm sure Qantas is keeping a close eye in Tiger Airways and its woes. Losing money, safety rumours which appear to be under consideration to be investigated the CASA or whatever they are.

Yeah, I hold and not happy.


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## StockDigger (12 June 2011)

IMO, QAN has so much potential upside but the negative market sentiment that bring down the SP. Especially with the CEO that used very aggressive method in restructuring by talking down the firm to create a sense of urgency to change.
I hope Alan Joyce know what he is doing. I just hope that Qan will not be the next Ansett. Perhaps, it will be the greatest restructuring ever conducted or an utter  failure.

Anyway, I am holding based on commsec recommendation of Buy and my denial stage of the SP Let see the performance of the SP this week especially with the news of Qantas cancelling flights due to volcanic ash clouds.


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## Boggo (12 June 2011)

boofhead said:


> I'm sure Qantas is keeping a close eye in Tiger Airways and its woes. Losing money, safety rumours which appear to be under consideration to be investigated the CASA or whatever they are.




I am not sure what woes you are referring to with Tiger, the basket (case) where Qantas are placing all their eggs is Jetstar and that is the bit that is concerning the whole industry including the current senate inquiry into aviation safety.




StockDigger said:


> IMO, QAN has so much potential upside...
> 
> Anyway, I am holding based on commsec recommendation of Buy and my denial stage of the SP




If the share price has so much upside then why has it closed on Friday below the price that it listed at in 1995.

I will leave that recommendation you speak of for someone else to comment on 

Commsec may have missed this significant item Virgin and Singapore tie up
They may also have missed that AMP sold the last of their interests in QAN on the 4th.


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## So_Cynical (12 June 2011)

StockDigger said:


> Anyway, I am holding based on commsec recommendation of Buy and my denial stage of the SP






Boggo said:


> I will leave that recommendation you speak of for someone else to comment on




I would of said something but good taste prevailed.


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## Knobby22 (12 June 2011)

That Virgin/Singapore Airlines tie up will be a pretty nasty alternative for Qantas.

They seem to always have another headwind to contend with. 

Good company but nasty industry. I think you can buy it but you have to be fleet of foot and a bit lucky.


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## nulla nulla (12 June 2011)

A board shake up may be a good idea. Definitely a change of management. The irishman seems to have lost control and direction. 

The pilots and the unions need to step back an look at reality also. Now is not the time to be engaging in industrial action and agitating for fatter pay packets. I suspect we may see qan test the gfc lows before there is any turn arround.


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## Boggo (12 June 2011)

nulla nulla said:


> The pilots and the unions need to step back an look at reality also. Now is not the time to be engaging in industrial action and agitating for fatter pay packets.




You are falling for what the management are feeding the media nulla.

Qantas as most know it is rapidly becoming a holding company for many subsidiaries, Jetstar being the largest.

What the media are producing and "investors" are reading are a long way from the reality of what is actually happening.
The only time Qantas will be resurrected is when its subsidiaries (Jetstar, Jetstar Asia, Jetstar Pacific, Jetconnect NZ etc) are flying all the routes, then the whole shebang will probably be renamed Qantas.

Some interesting reading Jetstar Senate extract PDF
and the day to day reality that is being uncovered Jetstar asian cheap crews

What all of this also highlights is that most so called "investors" have no idea of what is reality, they only believe what they are told.
The most basic line chart combined with a quick scan through the mandatory reports of who is buying and selling tells more about the reality of a company direction than all the spin and "expert" recommendations.


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## StockDigger (12 June 2011)

THAI-BASED CREW
$437 per month base salary or $5220 a year, plus allowances
SINGAPORE-BASED CREW
$20,000 a year
AUSTRALIAN CREW
$43,000 to $50,000 a year

Read more: http://www.news.com.au/travel/news/...es/story-e6frfq80-1226073646361#ixzz1P3jnGHRj

Looking at the world comparison, Australian crews are obviously over paid and In fact they are asking MORE! AND MORE!. What Qantas should have done is "a transfer of wealth from Australian crew to their lower wages colleagues" i.e. lowering their wages and in turn increase thai crew salary, therefore valuing the distributive justice along the way. 

However, reality is difficult. Greed is good. And of course, those Australian crews will not want that to happen. With AUD over parity, off shoring seems to be appealing.. With all the shenanigan going on with the unions, well it just put more pressures and reasons for the CEO to go on with the off shoring plans. IMO, the government has been acting too protective on the workers. With the carbon tax going on, the operational cost of the firm will just increase while the workers keep getting compensation. Perhaps, the only way for Qantas to survive this uncertain market and increasing competition is to take this Flying kangaroo to new ecosystems that will help them to breed and avoid extinction.


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## Boggo (12 June 2011)

Insert reality here...

*(click to expand)                      
*Note - unfit for investors


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## StockDigger (12 June 2011)

Well, chart and SP can't really tell everything. SP is just valuation of speculation. I know that Qantas is in down trend and in brink of something something. And I regret buying the shares.  and probably going to lose it all in this QAN. possibly going to retest the support on 1.89 on Tuesday opening. 

A downtrend chart just can't simply justify the current condition of Qantas.


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## jimmyizgod (12 June 2011)

You cant seriously tell me that because you compared australian qantas employee pay to thai qantas employee pay you have come to the conclusion that australians are overpaid because they earn more than their thai counterparts. 
Are you under the impression that the cost of living is the same in thailand as it is in australia?


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## nulla nulla (12 June 2011)

Qantas is losing money. Traffic and passenger numbers are down; fares are down due to competition; the accc blocked a link between qan and air nz but allowed Virgin to link with Delta, Air NZ and Singapore; and the unions want a pay rise and the pilots want a pay rise. The Irishman is handling it badly. Qantas is also beset with problems bringing the new boings and air buses on line which would help it reduce cost and oil prises are up..

The bulldust about cabin staff costs, Australian staff v's third world employees, is a smokescreen distracting everyone from their real problems. While I am a labour and union supporter, the airline unions and pilots need a dose of reality. Now is not the time to agitate for pay rises. 

In a two speed economy (mining & non-mining) qan is in the sector where income is falling while costs are rising. To survive, they need to contain cost and boost numbers of passengers. Losing business class passengers to the competition will hurt them all the more.

imo qan is sick and getting sicker and the board, management and staff need to work together to get through this period. Otherwise they are likely to fade into obscurity in the same manner ansett did.


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## Wysiwyg (12 June 2011)

One of the first to succumb to peak oil I wonder. Certainly heavily reliant upon fossil fuel and although the news focus is on carbon emissions, peak oil may be the real 'adjustment'.


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## Boggo (12 June 2011)

And the smartest man of the lot was Sir Richard Branson.
He watched the Dixon etc debacle unfold, knew there was competition for Dixon's job between Borghetti and Joyce and that the wee laddie was the likely candidate.

If that came to pass as expected he would make Borghetti an offer of an airline on a platter, do as you see fit with it, a very smart move.
Now Borghetti runs Virgin and has an intimate knowledge of the inverted pyramid management structure in Qantas and he is in the process of taking them apart.

The unions are being portrayed as the big cost issue to QF, nothing could be further from the truth, they are being set up to be the fall guys when the fertiliser hits the mistral.
Their 70's and 80's approach of just turning up with an aeroplane and having everyone flock onboard are gone but that culture and mentality still exists in the minds of those who make the decisions.

The best aircraft in the world at the moment and for a number of years now is the Boeing 777, guess which major airline does not have one ?

Virgin are hitting them on the international market, the domestic market and are about to start hitting them on the regional market against QantasLink with their new tie up with Skywest

Another nail ?


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## StockDigger (15 June 2011)

With abundant of $3 billions cash in reserve. Anyone thinking of reinstating dividend this coming financial year? What about share buy back?


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## skc (15 June 2011)

StockDigger said:


> With abundant of $3 billions cash in reserve. Anyone thinking of reinstating dividend this coming financial year? What about share buy back?




That $3B is not a reserve. It's mostly money from "revenue received in advance" (~$2.9B on the balance sheet). 

QAN however still has a frequent flyer programme that is probably worth more than the airline itself atm.


----------



## Smurf1976 (16 June 2011)

nulla nulla said:


> imo qan is sick and getting sicker and the board, management and staff need to work together to get through this period. Otherwise they are likely to fade into obscurity in the same manner ansett did.



With the volcanic ash situation it did cross my mind for the first time that Qantas might actually end up broke.

Virgin seemed to have no problem absorbing the additional fuel cost of flying at lower altitudes in order to run as many scheduled flights as they could reasonably manage under difficult circumstances. Qantas on the other hand seems to have taken the cheap option and is viewing it as "move objects from A to B at the lowest possible cost, time is not critical". 

That's not a good attitude from Qantas, and it leads me (and everyone else I've heard comment on it) to regard Virgin as the superior airline in terms of reliability, service etc. That leaves no reason to fly Qantas, at least not unless they are significantly cheaper than Virgin. The trouble is, being a discount carrier doesn't really work for Qantas' business model...


----------



## StockDigger (16 June 2011)

New board member has been appointed "Ms Corinne Namblard" Phd in political science. Are they bringing her in for the union negotiation? Hope this union dispute will come to end by this end of June.


----------



## Boggo (16 June 2011)

This was earlier this month... Rats found on aircraft

Apparently another nest found today in the forward galley.


----------



## Boggo (16 June 2011)

Have a look at this tangled web, 3 degrees of seperation ?

(click to expand)


----------



## StockDigger (17 June 2011)

Sunny sky today after 2 weeks gloomy and rains. I have a good feeling on QAN today. finger crossed. Why don't we keep this thread alive? Stock tipping? 

$2.50 by December.


----------



## tinhat (17 June 2011)

I'm just wondering if anyone that posts in this thread actually owns any QAN? And if so, why?

I'm a pretty average investor in terms of extracting return out of the market. That said, I wouldn't touch QAN with a rat's ****.

Airlines are like vineyards, they take a lot of capital investment deployed into a highly contestable, competitive market.


----------



## skc (17 June 2011)

tinhat said:


> I'm just wondering if anyone that posts in this thread actually owns any QAN? And if so, why?
> 
> I'm a pretty average investor in terms of extracting return out of the market. That said, I wouldn't touch QAN with a rat's ****.
> 
> Airlines are like vineyards, they take a lot of capital investment deployed into a highly contestable, competitive market.




Many share analysis text books use an airline as examples of a bad industry to buy-and-hold. And it's quite hard to disagree on that. Fuel costs, discretionary spending, interest rates, exchange rates, labour union issues, technical issues, terrorism, swine flu, earthquakes, SARS, weather, vocanic ash... it's hard to think of another industry that is as easily shakened as airlines.

Having said that QAN is a decent trading stock imo. I am long QAN at the moment as part of a pairs trade.


----------



## franklin235 (17 June 2011)

Smurf1976 said:


> With the volcanic ash situation it did cross my mind for the first time that Qantas might actually end up broke.
> 
> Virgin seemed to have no problem absorbing the additional fuel cost of flying at lower altitudes in order to run as many scheduled flights as they could reasonably manage under difficult circumstances. Qantas on the other hand seems to have taken the cheap option and is viewing it as "move objects from A to B at the lowest possible cost, time is not critical".
> 
> That's not a good attitude from Qantas, and it leads me (and everyone else I've heard comment on it) to regard Virgin as the superior airline in terms of reliability, service etc. That leaves no reason to fly Qantas, at least not unless they are significantly cheaper than Virgin. The trouble is, being a discount carrier doesn't really work for Qantas' business model...




I heard Virgin was the only airline besides the internationals and the regionals to carry on flying here to Adelaide. They don't seem to be doing all that badly despite the cancellations, no. Qantas, meanwhile, looks to be a totally different story...

_"Rival airlines have slammed the decision by Qantas to cancel flights and labelled the tactic a PR stunt aimed at boosting the beleaguered company's public image.

Virgin, Emirates, Cathay Pacific and Singapore Airlines are privately fuming at the Qantas decision.

Qantas was the only major airline to continue to ground flights.

"At the moment there are no particles in any airspace where we're flying and our pilots are even reporting in and telling us their space is clear," one airline told The Daily Telegraph._


----------



## Smurf1976 (17 June 2011)

franklin235 said:


> I heard Virgin was the only airline besides the internationals and the regionals to carry on flying here to Adelaide. They don't seem to be doing all that badly despite the cancellations, no. Qantas, meanwhile, looks to be a totally different story...



Domestic flights are critical infrastructure in Australia in much the same way as roads, rail, electricity, gas etc are critical infrastructure. With Qantas (including Jetstar) having something like a 70% market share, their decision to shut down has had a massive impact on the wider community.

Imagine if 70% of the electricity, gas etc were turned off for no good reason. There would be widespread community outrage and government would almost certainly step in and order that production be resumed.

Qantas has exposed its own dominance as a fundamental weakness in my opinion. I can't be the only person who has suddenly realised that we have a huge exposure to the actions of a company. As a politician would say, that situation is clearly not in the national interest and something needs to be done about it.

I wouldn't have thought that getting government and the general public off side was a smart move for a company such as Qantas when you think about the longer term implications it could well have.


----------



## StockDigger (17 June 2011)

I am on QAN for long. There is upside fundamental just market negative sentiment that pull it down.

buysellsignals.com just upgrade their short-term trading for QAN from 2 to "3 out of 5".  They still maintain the long term "5 out of 5"

Here is the fundamental analysis quoted from their report:
BULLISH SIGNALS:
Price/Sales of 0.3 versus sector average of 1.1 and market average of 1.7.
The Price to Book of 0.8 lower than average of 7.3 for the Transportation sector and 2.8 for the Total Australian Market.
BEARISH SIGNALS:
The earnings yield of 2.72% below 10-year bond yield of 5.08%.


Technical analysis:
BULLISH SIGNALS:
The Relative Strength Index (RSI) of 14.9 has breached the oversold line of 30; the stock is also oversold according to the Williams % R indicator of -95.2.


And information I got, don't know if it is accurate=>

"Balanced Equity Management Ltd bought a net 22,656,088 Qantas Airways Ltd shares between March 1 and June 15, 2011, increasing from 161,110,780 shares (7.11%) to 183,766,868 shares (8.11%)." Is it accumulating time?


----------



## Boggo (17 June 2011)

StockDigger said:


> Sunny sky today after 2 weeks gloomy and rains. I have a good feeling on QAN today. finger crossed. Why don't we keep this thread alive? Stock tipping?
> $2.50 by December.




It hasn't changed from the direction it has been going since 2007.
Waiting for you to qualify the $2.50 by December statement.



tinhat said:


> I'm just wondering if anyone that posts in this thread actually owns any QAN? And if so, why?




There may be a few who hold, usually Mum and Dad type investors, their stock selection is usually limited to the likes of Telstra, Qantas, Woolies and a few banks.
You will recognise them by terminology such as 'bought a small parcel, added to my holding, long term this has great potential, I am an investor, in for the long term upside and bottom drawer' etc comments.

That sort of covers who and why I think.

(click to see reality)


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## Boggo (17 June 2011)

StockDigger said:


> "Balanced Equity Management Ltd bought a net 22,656,088 Qantas Airways Ltd shares between March 1 and June 15, 2011, increasing from 161,110,780 shares (7.11%) to 183,766,868 shares (8.11%)." Is it accumulating time?




Averaging down on the ones they bought in Jan and Feb, be interesting to see what their current average cost price is.

They probably bought what AMP were selling, AMP are now out.

May be interesting to see who gets it right.


----------



## StockDigger (22 June 2011)

QAN on trading halt!.


----------



## Boggo (22 June 2011)

StockDigger said:


> QAN on trading halt!.




Jetstar to Europe ?


----------



## matty77 (22 June 2011)

Boggo said:


> Jetstar to Europe ?




Major loss to be confirmed. I wouldnt be holding.


----------



## skc (22 June 2011)

matty77 said:


> Major loss to be confirmed. I wouldnt be holding.




Everyone was expecting the worst and it actually wasn't nearly as bad. The P/L impact is cushioned by the Rolls Royces engine settlement.

Allowed me a nice exit at $1.87 ish. Who knows which way the volcanic ash will blow tomorrow...


----------



## matty77 (22 June 2011)

Expect to expect the opposite of what the media expects is going to happen and then you should get it right.


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## StockDigger (22 June 2011)

investsmart.com.au put QAN on buy (21 Jun 2011) recommendation with 8 brokers surveyed. Should we go short or long this time? 

http://www.investsmart.com.au/shares/asx/Qantas-Airways-QAN.asp

Commsec changed their recommendation to Hold


----------



## Columbia330 (22 June 2011)

It is difficult to invest in a Company that has been fined multiple times for freight cartel fraud, never purchased B-777 aircraft to replace the majority of it's aged 747 fleet. Continues to have only two destinations in Europe, 1 in mainland China. Loses huge amounts of money with Jetstar Pacific in Vietnam and Jetstar Asia (small accounting profit last financial year). Jetstar International cannot be profitable as much of it's income is derived from Japan and the load factor is poor. The management is only interested in the Low Cost Carrier model which has difficulty making a profit when fuel costs are high. Virgin Australia has worked this out and are chasing high yield business class passengers.  Besides the $95 million from Rolls Royce, how much of the remaining profit comes from Boeing for the late delivery of the B-787 or from Airbus for the late delivery of A-380's? Rob Fyfe from Air New Zealand would be a far better CEO. He doesn't call his Pilots Kamikaze's, he actually engages his employees and leads by example. Qantas is being run by consultants with a destructive industrial agenda. Not a company I would invest in, especially the way it has been mismanaged!


----------



## Boggo (1 July 2011)

Boggo said:


> Jetstar to Europe ?




Brace position kiddies !

qantas-to-outsource-tokyo-osaka-flights-to-jetstar-japan


----------



## StockDigger (2 July 2011)

B787 News after a long delay.  When will Qantas received theirs?

http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2011-...ts-in-japan-signal-jet-delay-almost-over.html


----------



## Boggo (19 July 2011)

Worth a visit perhaps, at least for the other side of the story as opposed to the Qantas media dept.
http://qantaspilots.com.au/


----------



## franklin235 (17 August 2011)

Looks like we're heading to Asia now.


----------



## young-gun (29 October 2011)

*QAN - qantas*

Qantas fleet grounded indefinitely. Mr Joyce has some seriously big ba**s to make a move like this. It could very well break the airline. On the other hand it may be a very smart move, and the only way to rectify the ongoing turmoil caused by the strikes.

http://www.heraldsun.com.au/news/mo...passengers-today/story-fn7x8me2-1226180030416


Fingers crossed the unions come to the table before 8pm monday. Thoughts?


----------



## beersheba (29 October 2011)

After the AGM two of the unions reaffirmed they will continue and even escalate their industrial action well into next year.
I think the unions have been making out they are only "lightly cooking" Qantas, for public relations reasons, hence the 1 hr work stoppages.

But the real damage to Qantas is not the cancelled flights for that day, but the drop in advanced bookings, something like 25 to 30 % now for some regions. 
Lets face it, if you want to go on that dream holiday, you will be thinking twice about flying with Qantas if there is a threat of union action. 

So while the damage to their reputation will be big and its a big gamble, i think Qantas management had to do something. Thats why Alan Joyce gets paid big $. 

It will be interesting to watch their share price on Monday. Maybe the market has factored something like this into the price already, but i still think its not going to be pretty.


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## Whiskers (29 October 2011)

beersheba said:


> But the real damage to Qantas is not the canceled flights for that day, but the drop in advanced bookings, something like 25 to 30 % now for some regions.




That's true. Joyce is obviously frustrated with the forecast revenue based on consumer surveys, BUT...



> So while the damage to their reputation will be big and its a big gamble, i
> think Qantas management had to do something. *Thats why Alan Joyce gets paid big
> $.*




Joyce got paid big bonus bucks because certain performance targets were met. What exactly is in his salary performance bonus requirements for this year and next?

Big bucks does not necessairly equal best interests of the compant, better performance for the company, better returns for the shareholders or service for customers. Sometimes it's only an inducement for someone to take on a risky strategy, often fraught with illegality, to meet a certain end.


----------



## snsdmonkey (29 October 2011)

So what do we think QAN will open at on Monday? 0.97 is my guess :


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## Chasero (30 October 2011)

snsdmonkey said:


> So what do we think QAN will open at on Monday? 0.97 is my guess :




$1.30? LOL

The AGM held was the funniest thing I've seen all year! 

"Please note, Mr Joyce is NOT wearing a bullet proof vest"


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## drsmith (30 October 2011)

My guess is a trading halt.


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## lucifuge (30 October 2011)

They'll probably rename the carrier in an effort to mask it's history. Probably a name like Ansett

...oh,.. wait!


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## prawn_86 (30 October 2011)

OK so before this grounding they were saying the diputes were costing them $15m a week. What i am wondering is how much the pay raises everyone is asking for would cost them per week??

If the cost of the raises was less than $15m pw surely it makes sense to agree?

Now with the grounding it just shows that Aussie travellers are pretty screwed longer term with no airline able to be trusted, and no airline ombudsman in place travellers are completely at the airlines mercy.


----------



## UBIQUITOUS (30 October 2011)

prawn_86 said:


> OK so before this grounding they were saying the diputes were costing them $15m a week. What i am wondering is how much the pay raises everyone is asking for would cost them per week??
> 
> If the cost of the raises was less than $15m pw surely it makes sense to agree?





Pay rises would be for life which is not the case of the cost to Qantas for the grounding.
I hope Qantas stick to their guns in the face of these union thugs. Having said that, Joyce is having a laugh with that bonus.


----------



## Billyb (30 October 2011)

UBIQUITOUS said:


> Pay rises would be for life which is not the case of the cost to Qantas for the grounding.
> I hope Qantas stick to their guns in the face of these union thugs. Having said that, Joyce is having a laugh with that bonus.




Joyce has no choice, if he gives in to their demands the long germ outlook for the company is not looking good. Big changes are needed and the unions dont get that if they dont stop being morons then all of them wont have any job.


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## dutchie (30 October 2011)

Billyb said:


> Big changes are needed and the unions dont get that if they dont stop being morons then all of them wont have any job.




No worries the government has plenty of money to make sure they are compensated.

I say we bail them out.

Think of the carbon gas savings.


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## fwpike (30 October 2011)

Pay is not the sticking point. The Unions want to stop having their jobs outsourced to cheap overseas labour. Their choice is to go down fighting or to pick up a redundancy package one day soon. I would have liked to have seen Alan Joyce anounce this the day before the AGM!


----------



## hoggy (30 October 2011)

I'm considering investing substantially in Qantas this week. It's risky but if they resolve the industrial disputes this week and expand into Asia over the coming years it might be the perfect time to jump in. What are the chances that Qantas will return to $2+ in the coming months?


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## prawn_86 (30 October 2011)

UBIQUITOUS said:


> Pay rises would be for life which is not the case of the cost to Qantas for the grounding.
> I hope Qantas stick to their guns in the face of these union thugs. Having said that, Joyce is having a laugh with that bonus.




The cost of reputational and brand damage caused by this is for life, or at least 20+ years. They have done it once, whats to stop them doing it whenever someone wants a pay rise? Unfortunately there is an airline oligolopoly in Aus, but international travellers will be sure to think carefully 

We are flying internationally with Qantas next yr and are thinking of changing carriers


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## Billyb (30 October 2011)

prawn_86 said:


> The cost of reputational and brand damage caused by this is for life, or at least 20+ years. They have done it once, whats to stop them doing it whenever someone wants a pay rise? Unfortunately there is an airline oligolopoly in Aus, but international travellers will be sure to think carefully
> 
> We are flying internationally with Qantas next yr and are thinking of changing carriers




People forget things pretty quickly. Once the smoke settles down it'll be fine


----------



## prawn_86 (30 October 2011)

Billyb said:


> People forget things pretty quickly. Once the smoke settles down it'll be fine




Dont bet on it, especially for international tourists with more options than our domestic routes. 'Brand' is a valuable (if undefinable) asset for a business and somehting like this will always be in the back of people mind, or even sub-conscious when booking for years to come


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## nulla nulla (30 October 2011)

hoggy said:


> I'm considering investing substantially in Qantas this week. It's risky but if they resolve the industrial disputes this week and expand into Asia over the coming years it might be the perfect time to jump in. What are the chances that Qantas will return to $2+ in the coming months?




When the dust clears the damage to the Qantas brand, by Joyce, will live on in everyones memory for a long time to come. The people that have had to make alternative flight arrangements with alternative carriers will probably be extremely greatful to the alternative carriers and most of them will never fly Qantas again.

It will also impact on Jetstar, which is after all a division of Qantas. If I was looking to make a long term investment in an Australian based Airline now I would look a lot closer at Virgin.


----------



## joea (30 October 2011)

You are focusing on the small issues.
With a new government or the next government, we need economic growth.
If there is not a rate drop on Tuesday, we need to turf every one of the RBA officials out on the sidewalk.
Abbott has said that he will not bring back work choices.

Gillard has just proved she cannot run the country.
Labor was advised with 3 hrs. notice with what was happening with Qantas.
They did not respond. Fair work Australia needs savlon cream and bandages.

Gillard has been caught out big time by throwing it at Abbott.

If fair work Australia sides with the unions, then international Qantas is finished.
joea


----------



## Calliope (30 October 2011)

joea said:


> If fair work Australia sides with the unions, then international Qantas is finished.
> joea




Exactly.


----------



## pilots (30 October 2011)

Why cant the Qantas workers work for the same rate of pay as the Virgin workers do??????????????, they are surving ok. If they are not happy with the job they are doing why not quit, and work in a job that they like. Good on Qantas, BRING IT ON, its time to get rid of the Unions if we want our air line to succeed.


----------



## snsdmonkey (30 October 2011)

pilots said:


> Why cant the Qantas workers work for the same rate of pay as the Virgin workers do??????????????, they are surving ok. If they are not happy with the job they are doing why not quit, and work in a job that they like. Good on Qantas, BRING IT ON, its time to get rid of the Unions if we want our air line to succeed.




Quite agree actually. I don't think they deserve a pay rise at all, unsustainable and just plain selfish considering they're the highest paid already in Australia and these economic conditions. Then again Mr Joyce just topped that by getting a pay rise so he's just lost his case right there. Messed up situation for sure.


----------



## tinhat (31 October 2011)

nulla nulla said:


> If I was looking to make a long term investment in an Australian based Airline ...




That would be a certain sign of insanity.


----------



## sails (31 October 2011)

prawn_86 said:


> Dont bet on it, especially for international tourists with more options than our domestic routes. 'Brand' is a valuable (if undefinable) asset for a business and somehting like this will always be in the back of people mind, or even sub-conscious when booking for years to come





Qantas brand was already being trashed due to industrial action.  As shareholders would you prefer for continued  strike action for another year?  It seems there was no end in sight and I understand that the Qantas brand was already suffering.

At least, this is hopefully the last inconvenience for passengers with industrial action.  If I were a share holder, I would think Joyce has done the right thing to bring this to a head and get the passengers travelling without the constant threat of delayed and cancelled flights due to union strikes which have already been upsetting passengers.

Without Joyce's action, I think the Qantas brand would eventually be entirely trashed by the very people who work for them.


----------



## McLovin (31 October 2011)

If a few once-a-year flyers are inconvenienced on a weekend that's no biggy, they usually can be lured back with cheap flights. Look at Tiger, suspended because of safety and their load factor only fell 9 points. Qantas did it on a Saturday afternoon so that business travellers, the guys who actually keep Qantas flying, would suffer the least inconvenience.


----------



## Chasero (31 October 2011)

All the bad press and QAN up 6% today. Wow, didnt see that one coming.


----------



## snsdmonkey (31 October 2011)

Chasero said:


> All the bad press and QAN up 6% today. Wow, didnt see that one coming.




Yeh GG to all the shorters out there?


----------



## notting (31 October 2011)

snsdmonkey said:


> Yeh GG to all the shorters out there?



It was a great move by Joyce I reckon. Union rubbish in an impossible industry.  He earns his pay this guy. Long QAN short VBA.


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## snsdmonkey (31 October 2011)

notting said:


> It was a great move by Joyce I reckon. Union rubbish in an impossible industry.  He earns his pay this guy. Long QAN short VBA.




Yepp same here. The only reason he was getting slagged off was because the media tried to highlight Joyce's pay rise. Union pressure for unsustainable wage demands, it's like they deliberately don't want to have jobs in the future!


----------



## sails (31 October 2011)

snsdmonkey said:


> Yepp same here. The only reason he was getting slagged off was because the media tried to highlight Joyce's pay rise. Union pressure for unsustainable wage demands, it's like they deliberately don't want to have jobs in the future!




Yeah, it's no wonder the workers want job security...


----------



## RandR (10 November 2011)

For the last couple of weeks Ive been working at the airport on the gold coast (doing some renovation type work)

One thing has really struck out to me in the last few days, the plane turnaround time for Jetstar, in comparison to Virgin and Air Asia and Tiger is outstandingly slow. In most cases if Virgin or Air Asia are taking 30 mins or 1 hour to turn around a plane, Jetsar are taking 1 hour or 2. Considering there operating within the same business plan (ie:low cost carrier, making low margins on higher volumes of passengers) it sticks out to me as being a very considerable disadvantage to have your planes sitting on the ground longer then competing airlines.

The A330's for Jetsar seem to be the worst offenders, the 2 they have flying out of the Gold Coast seem to spend about 1/2 the day on the tarmac going nowhere.


----------



## oldblue (11 December 2011)

Anyone contemplating investing in QAN might want to first read this article by Stephen Batholomeusz.

"Politicians and union leaders searching for a context in which to place the damaging confrontation with Qantas could do a lot worse than looking at the latest International Air Transport Association forecasts for the airline industry and some of the comments of its chief executive, Tony Tyler, in particular. 

At the moment IATA, which tends to be consistently over-optimistic, is keeping to its forecast of a $US6.9 billion profit for the industry in 2011 and has only modestly revised down its 2012 forecast, from $US4.9 billion of profit to $US3.5 billion. At that level the industry would be generating a profit margin of only 0.6 per cent.


Should the eurozone crisis deepen, a banking crisis develop and Europe fall into recession, however, IATA would expect all regions to fall into losses and the industry overall to lose about $US8.3 billion. As it stands, that looks the more likely scenario than the more benign outcome in the eurozone that underpins the central forecast. 

The Qantas group, of course, is profitable. Even after absorbing around $100 million of losses as a result of the disputes with three of its unions that led to the grounding of its fleet, it still expects to generate underlying earnings before tax of between $140 million and $190 million in the December half. 

That profit, however, is based on the strength of its domestic franchise, its frequent flyer business, its Jetstar brand and its other non-aviation operations. Its international operations, it has said, are losing $200 million a year. 

If IATA’s view of what 2012 might look like in the event that the eurozone authorities can’t finesse a positive and stabilising outcome imminently, the outlook for Qantas’ international business – in which it has $5 billion of capital tied up – would look even less palatable. 

Even on IATA’s more sanguine outlook for 2012, the industry would have lost more than $US26 billion over the past decade despite generating revenue of $US5.5 trillion. It is a terrible industry, not helped by the interventions of government or the lack of comprehension of its inherent vulnerability by unions. 

‘’You might say that the normal state of aviation is crisis and once in a while we have a few consecutive months of benign conditions – the danger of which is that everyone from suppliers to unions to governments think that airlines are fat cash cows ready for milking in one way or another,’’ Tyler said. 

It is the denial of the reality of the international aviation industry and its impact on Qantas’ business that underpins union attempts to freeze those operations in a 1960s status quo and the government’s inability to comprehend why Alan Joyce took that very difficult and financially painful decision to ground the fleet. 

If IATA’s fears about the eurozone were borne out, the Asia-Pacific region, generally the most profitable in the globe, would, with the rest of the world, lose money – more than $US1 billion – rather than the $US2.1 billion profit IATA’s central forecast anticipates. 

For Qantas, flying point-to-point long haul routes against Asian and Middle Eastern hub carriers with far more modern and efficient products, even the less threatening outcome isn’t going to materially reduce the tide of red ink flowing through its international business. A European meltdown would be very unpleasant. 

International aviation isn’t, and never has been, a good business. Over the past 40 years, according to Tyler, the industry has actually made money – but generated an abysmal profit margin of only 0.3 per cent. 

In the past decade the emergence of new carriers out of the Middle East and Asia has meant that despite relatively strong growth in passenger numbers, yields have been squashed by the torrent of new capacity pouring into the industry. 

Qantas’ international operations need to be radically restructured, their cost base lowered and its configuration re-shaped. Joyce’s strategy of launching a new premium carrier within Asia alongside the rapidly-growing Jetstar business – one of the reasons for the union hostility – might be risky but the status quo isn’t an option. 

Even if Qantas could wear the losses, while there is no prospect of generating a return from those operations it isn’t possible for the Qantas board to justify the massive investment required to completely overhaul and upgrade the international product to make it more competitive. That’s why the timetable for the fleet renewal program has been continually pushed out into the future. 

Whether or not IATA’s more pessimistic outlook for 2012 is confirmed, the actions taken by Joyce and his board this year to try to do something about the uneconomic structure of their international business are validated by the continuing sub-economic state of the international industry. "


----------



## skc (5 June 2012)

Had a short on QAN which I closed YESTERDAY 

If I had a spare $2.5B lying around, I would buy QAN, spin out the international arm and move most of the debt into it (but retain the Qantas name to fool the fools), sell the freq flyer program to recoup most of my outlay, and keep Jetstar and Domestic for free.

Failing the international spin out, I will just threaten to cease operation... the government will freak out and may be even take it over...

*Checking bank account - nope, don't have spare $2.5B.


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## prawn_86 (5 June 2012)

skc said:


> *Checking bank account - nope, don't have spare $2.5B.




I've got the 2 if you can kick in the 0.5 

Bad luck on the short


----------



## Gringotts Bank (5 June 2012)

skc said:


> Had a short on QAN which I closed YESTERDAY
> 
> If I had a spare $2.5B lying around, I would buy QAN, spin out the international arm and move most of the debt into it (but retain the Qantas name to fool the fools), sell the freq flyer program to recoup most of my outlay, and keep Jetstar and Domestic for free.
> 
> ...




You've got quite the business brain sk.  What did you do as a job before trading>?


----------



## Huskar (5 June 2012)

The problem with airlines is that they have such large fixed and ongoing costs and such competition that it is very hard to make money at all.

There is some statistic often trotted out that since Orville and Wilbur Wright invented the flying machine in 1903 all airline companies taken as a whole have lost money. That is pretty incredible wealth destruction for a technology that the modern world could not do without.

Qantas is actually the one airline company that has been consistently profitable for a significant period of time - purely because of competition restrictions in Australia.


----------



## McLovin (5 June 2012)

Who flies Qantas internationally? that's what I'd like to know! The service is OK but it's soooo overpriced. I have a flight to Europe at the end of the month, booked on Asiana $3500 one way in business (with a free hotel in Seoul for the night), Qantas was $7k. China Southern is about to start competing on the Kangaroo route and are asking the government in Guangdong to allow visa free transiting through Guangzhou, as currently happens in Shanghai.

I can see how they make money on the FF program, it must be the only program in that charges you to join and the earn/burn rate is disgraceful (they don't actually charge you to join if you live outside Australia). 

Without the domestic ops Qantas would have been finished some time ago. The reality is that Qantas will either have to offshore their entire (with the exception of pilots) international ops or the government will need to subsidise them. I don't think it would actually be possible to split the international business out, government intervention aside, it would fail quickly. I can't imagine debt holders agreeing to carrying having their debt secured by a loss making operation.


----------



## skc (5 June 2012)

McLovin said:


> Who flies Qantas internationally?




Considering the quality of their air hostess... those wives who don't want their husbands flying virgin.



McLovin said:


> Without the domestic ops Qantas would have been finished some time ago. The reality is that Qantas will either have to offshore their entire (with the exception of pilots) international ops or the government will need to subsidise them. I don't think it would actually be possible to split the international business out, government intervention aside, it would fail quickly. I can't imagine debt holders agreeing to carrying having their debt secured by a loss making operation.




No, but you can sell to the public much the same way that Jen Hawko sold Myer to a bunch of fools. And you can sort of blackmail the govn't into subsidies.



Gringotts Bank said:


> You've got quite the business brain sk.  What did you do as a job before trading>?




I can tell you but I going have to kill you after that. Actually I was just rehashing what the private equity guys had in mind back in 2007.



prawn_86 said:


> I've got the 2 if you can kick in the 0.5




Deal. Let me just sell soome of my facebook shares first...


----------



## Joules MM1 (5 June 2012)

and another one 

Qantas Warns Earnings Could Plunge Up to 91% 

http://online.wsj.com/article/SB100...575226026.html?mod=rss_whats_news_us_business

maybe they should go this way: http://news.nationalgeographic.com/...lse-test-flight-switzerland_54163_600x450.jpg

or this:
http://www.nytimes.com/2012/06/05/b...et-age.html?smid=tw-nytimesbusiness&seid=auto

better still, get into space, this ones a beaut:
http://www.cbsnews.com/video/watch/?id=7410538n&tag=contentBody;storyMediaBox


----------



## McLovin (5 June 2012)

skc said:


> No, but you can sell to the public much the same way that Jen Hawko sold Myer to a bunch of fools. And you can sort of blackmail the govn't into subsidies.




I was just thinking they'd split rather than sell the international ops. So, existing shareholders will hold shares in two companies, domestic and international. Sort of what I'd love CTX to do.


----------



## CanOz (6 June 2012)

QAN down again today...they must be looking attractive to a suitor soon?

CanOz


----------



## prawn_86 (6 June 2012)

CanOz said:


> QAN down again today...they must be looking attractive to a suitor soon?
> 
> CanOz




I think a lot of PE firms looking at them would probably be put off by all the bs 'national carrier' protectionist laws in place.


----------



## oldblue (6 June 2012)

prawn_86 said:


> I think a lot of PE firms looking at them would probably be put off by all the bs 'national carrier' protectionist laws in place.




I agree with that. There must be a lot more attractive targets for PE than trying to make a silk purse out of that particular sow's ear. May have worked a few years ago but too many 'challenges' these days, methinks.


----------



## McLovin (6 June 2012)

prawn_86 said:


> I think a lot of PE firms looking at them would probably be put off by all the bs 'national carrier' protectionist laws in place.




I agree. Although it's not only the Qantas Sale Act that prevents it. Most bi-lateral "freedoms of the air" require the carrier to be locally owned. Otherwise you have effective cabotage.

I just don't see anyone who a) has the money and b) the desire to get involved in such a heavily regulated, CAPEX intensive business which seems to be constantly at war with someone. This might have made sense in 2006 when everyone was punch drunk on cheap debt and the sky was the limit but not any more.


----------



## Boggo (6 June 2012)

Copied this from an aviation site (pprune.org) where there are many and varied opinions.
This commentary is a summary of the reality of the overall plan that the industry is aware of and that VBA are basing their remodeling on.
 The blaming of unions and everyone else within firing range is what the media love and is all that the public have to go on.

"No lads its not stupidity nor incompetence, it is simply following the Dixon plan of turning QF into JQ. 
A new national carrier, born of the old one, run at half the price, employing Asian workers who have to be prepared to work for peanuts, all engineering done OS in Bucketstan, by poorly trained, to our standards, engineers. 
The tech crew will stay Australian (the question is are they prepared to fly half serviced buckets of bolts) but of course there are always foreign pilots ready to be employed. Profits will rise, the shareholders will be happy, the CEO will get another bonus, until the inevitable, the first aircraft shaped smoking hole in the ground. Of course it will be the fault of the pilots who are probably deceased, or the hapless engineer who signed it out, but it will never be the fault of the management. 
From the day the birth of JQ it was always the plan, and it is slowly coming to fruition, the wringing of the hands, the wiping of the brow by Joyce is worthy of a Oscar, the unions know it, the staff know it, but the public don't. Qantas will be no more than a brand name loved by the nation but will have as much relevance as Ansett and TAA do today. 
Welcome to the bone yard QF to lie with your ex patriots, irrelevant, forgotten, destroyed by a bunch of carpetbaggers, men without soul, the greed of the shareholder, a fine airline with a proud record lies in the dust for no other reason than greed."


----------



## Garpal Gumnut (6 June 2012)

Thanks Boggo,

QF really is cactus. I will convert my ff points in to those dreadful toasters or coffee machines for Christmas presents to those I dislike. It may actually go **** up.

What is the alternative though, grinning adolescent bransoned monkeys on VA.

gg


----------



## Boggo (6 June 2012)

Garpal Gumnut said:


> What is the alternative though, grinning adolescent bransoned monkeys on VA.
> 
> gg




May as well get used to it GG, its about as good as it will be.

From where I am sitting here in the almost full Cathay lounge in HKG aviation seems to be alive and well.
Families with kids travelling business class between Zurich and HKG makes you wonder why there is a race to the bottom in Aust to get people off the firefly coaches and on to Airbusse's, I would have thought that numbers of dollars would be a priority over numbers of cheap fare passengers.


----------



## Smurf1976 (6 June 2012)

Garpal Gumnut said:


> What is the alternative though, grinning adolescent bransoned monkeys on VA.



They're not perfect (nobody is) but VA has obviously put a lot of effort into creating a more professional image in recent times. Not perfect, but they are clearly heading in the right direction (better) versus QF (worse).


----------



## McLovin (6 June 2012)

Boggo said:
			
		

> From where I am sitting here in the almost full Cathay lounge in HKG aviation seems to be alive and well.




That lounge is f**ked. It's so overcrowded these days. I was travelling through in December and the Wing/Pier and the Cabin were all standing room only. When you're plonking down $8-10k for a ticket you'd expect somewhere to sit. I ended up in the empty Qantas Club.

When it starts to get overcrowded they should enforce the no economy and no OneWorld pax rule.


----------



## Garpal Gumnut (6 June 2012)

Boggo said:


> May as well get used to it GG, its about as good as it will be.
> 
> From where I am sitting here in the almost full Cathay lounge in HKG aviation seems to be alive and well.
> Families with kids travelling business class between Zurich and HKG makes you wonder why there is a race to the bottom in Aust to get people off the firefly coaches and on to Airbusse's, I would have thought that numbers of dollars would be a priority over numbers of cheap fare passengers.




Agree.

gg



Smurf1976 said:


> They're not perfect (nobody is) but VA has obviously put a lot of effort into creating a more professional image in recent times. Not perfect, but they are clearly heading in the right direction (better) versus QF (worse).




Not that I ever want to be in a critical situation, but I'd trust QF staff before the programmed monkeys.

gg


----------



## Boggo (6 June 2012)

McLovin said:


> That lounge is f**ked. It's so overcrowded these days. I was travelling through in December and the Wing/Pier and the Cabin were all standing room only. When you're plonking down $8-10k for a ticket you'd expect somewhere to sit. I ended up in the empty Qantas Club.




Depends on which one of the three you are in, upstairs in the one that is between gates 1 and 2 is always the best.


----------



## Garpal Gumnut (6 June 2012)

McLovin said:


> That lounge is f**ked. It's so overcrowded these days. I was travelling through in December and the Wing/Pier and the Cabin were all standing room only. When you're plonking down $8-10k for a ticket you'd expect somewhere to sit. I ended up in the empty Qantas Club.
> 
> When it starts to get overcrowded they should enforce the no economy and no OneWorld pax rule.




Agree mate, I prefer couth tired smelly people any day of the week, on any continent. You should have complained. Last time that happened to me I scored 1A.

gg


----------



## CanOz (7 June 2012)

Qantas is expensive to run. What do you expect when you pay so many so much! Yet the rest of Asia enjoys a great safety record too, while paying fair rates to their staff....go figure....whose greedy?

CanOz


----------



## oldblue (7 June 2012)

CanOz hits the nail on the head, IMO. It's a bit like the 'buying on the internet' dilemma. We all like the cheaper prices but can't have them without impacting on local businesses and employment. Inevitably, we put our own interests first, buying at the best price on the net and flying with the best price from wherever.


----------



## jank (7 June 2012)

Chickens coming home to roost?

Australia is just too expensive an envirnoment at the moment.


----------



## skc (8 June 2012)

QAN breaking the buck... just imagine the media coming up with all sorts of headlines like "Low flying object" and "QAN crashes to the ground".

People are running scared about the prospect of a cap raising?


----------



## notting (8 June 2012)

skc said:


> QAN breaking the buck... just imagine the media coming up with all sorts of headlines like "Low flying object" and "QAN crashes to the ground".
> 
> People are running scared about the prospect of a cap raising?




Perfect *no crash* record destroyed!
Gonna have to buy it, when it looks like it's sitting on the ocean bed however.
The entire front end of the craft has fallen off and the back end engines are stiill powering what's left of the terrified passangers toward the heavens.
Of course, the unions are calling it a slide of hand.  If only they were on it!


----------



## McLovin (8 June 2012)

skc said:


> QAN breaking the buck... just imagine the media coming up with all sorts of headlines like "Low flying object" and "QAN crashes to the ground".
> 
> People are running scared about the prospect of a cap raising?




You're the king of the pun, skc!

How about...

Investors' ears pop as Qantas plunges.

Qantas shareholders reach for the oxygen mask.

There must be something on the radar coming up. Cap raising, another strike.


----------



## Gundini (8 June 2012)

I flew with Qantas for many years as an overpaid Trolley Dolly. I am not suprised at the companies slow death. Unions have killed this airline, along with lots of middle management and terrible mis-management. I had a truck load of shares that I sold after I left for around $5.50 as blind Freddy could see the writting on the wall. 

I never thought I would see the day that I would buy into an airline business, let alone QF. But @ .98c I pulled the trigger. Still not quite sure why, maybe nostalgia value, very sad really. Will be keeping a close stop.


----------



## matty77 (8 June 2012)

Why is it assumed that because the airline is paying less to service its planes therefore it has to be inferior service? Maybe Qantas doesn't want to pay the ridiculous wages in Australia that some so called engineers get paid. Since when did Australia become so good at being engineers compared to anywhere else?

It really is a pathetic attempt to protect peoples jobs who are probably overpaid and under skilled. Oh the joy of unions.

You know Qantas is like Mitsubishi in Adelaide in a way, everyone thinking they "have" to survive, which is a load of crap, *if they cant compete in the international market then they have no place in being there. If they have to move work off shore to compete then so be it.*

What is the point in having an airline that cant afford to fly but has the best serviced planes in the world, when you have another airline paying half the costs and no service issues?

I believe it has always been a plan from the start to convert it to Jetstar... anyone taken a look at Singapore Airport lately... or is it Jetstar Airport.. I think you get the point.

By the way, I fly both Qantas, Jetstar and Virgin for work and prefer Virgin by a mile, such better customer service than either of the others, its a pity they dont have more flights on at convenient times.

I will be happy to see the ass end of Qantas, who were ripping us off for years before Virgin came in and actually injected some competition into the market. At least now everyone can afford to fly, not just the rich.

Goodbye you sad airline.


----------



## skc (8 June 2012)

McLovin said:


> How about...
> 
> Investors' ears pop as Qantas plunges.
> 
> ...




Your lines gave me more ideas.

  Low altitude makes Qantas investors sick.

  The crashing Kangaroo.

  What's that skippy? Qantas shares have fallen down the well?

  Alan Joyce: "I don't want to call Australia home (of my cost base)."


----------



## nulla nulla (8 June 2012)

Institutional investors have been very quiet. Some are probably selling, someone is buying. At some point it will stabilise. It wouldn't surprise me to see pressure brought to bear for Joyce to go.


----------



## CanOz (23 August 2012)

Qantas has cancelled an order for something like 30 Boeing 787 Dreamliners...

CanOz


----------



## matty77 (23 August 2012)

Dead Duck Flying.


----------



## Julia (23 August 2012)

CanOz said:


> Qantas has cancelled an order for something like 30 Boeing 787 Dreamliners...
> 
> CanOz



Alan Joyce was interviewed on "The World Today".  He's trying hard to be upbeat.  Re the above cancellation, that was 30 out of a previous 100, if I recall properly what he said.


----------



## McLovin (6 September 2012)

Qantas has really shot itself in the foot with this deal, if the details are correct. They have pretty much admitted defeat to Emirates. I'm not sure what the benefit is to Qantas. Emirates have such a huge network that the real risk is that if everyone gets put onto Qantas flights to Dubair and then has to transfer at Dubai on to an Emirates flight for onward travel to Europe, over the long run Qantas will just get cut out of the game. Luckily for Qantas, Emirates has as a sucky a frequent flyer program as Qantas does so it's unlikely they will lose too many FF's, yet.

Am I the only one who thinks Qantas got the raw end of the stick in replacing Dixon with Joyce, instead of Borghetti?

http://www.afr.com/p/business/companies/qantas_lands_alliance_with_emirates_wsKp6UXOYitOkUSZcjqKRL#


----------



## matty77 (7 September 2012)

I would agree I don't think it is as "sweet" as it has been perceived.

And the little umpur-lumpar Joyce smiling the whole time makes my stomach turn 

Tell me exactly how Q will make more money from this?


----------



## oldblue (7 September 2012)

Thank goodness you didn't write "oompa loompa". Charlie from the Chocolate Factory would not have been amused!

But seriously, isn't QAN at the point where desperate times demand desperate measures? I suppose the other alternative would have been to try to work its way back into being a quality airline with quality service, but that opportunity has probably already passed.


----------



## McLovin (7 September 2012)

matty77 said:


> Tell me exactly how Q will make more money from this?




I could take a stab at it.

Currently, the only way to get to Europe on QF is through Heathrow (or Frankfurt but not really). This is a major PITA, anyone who travels through Europe will tell you you don't want to transit LHR. Not only are the queues horrendous to transit but you are almost always doubling back on your route. Emirates (EK) will provide QF with a staging post relatively close to Europe to drop passengers right into where they want to go. EK has a crazy big network in Europe (they even fly to places like Birmingham!). 

There will be 98 flights Oz-Dubai/week. Emirates will operate 84 of them. If I book on QF flight number and end up on EK metal and I don't mind the service, why will I bother going back to QF? Unless they are pooling revenue (which they may be) ala the current JSA with BA on the Kangaroo Route, QF is cut out and doesn't get my business anymore. Emirates is also significantly cheaper than QF, no idea what that will mean for QF. I imagine the ACCC will be looking closely at that.


----------



## Gringotts Bank (7 September 2012)

Branson should take over.  

Joyce has been a disaster.


----------



## skc (7 September 2012)

McLovin said:


> There will be 98 flights Oz-Dubai/week. Emirates will operate 84 of them. If I book on QF flight number and *end up on EK metal and I don't mind the service, why will I bother going back to QF? Emirates is also significantly cheaper than QF, *no idea what that will mean for QF. I imagine the ACCC will be looking closely at that.




I think you nailed it there. I'd fly EK any day over QF. Better food, newer aircrafts, better service AND better looking hostess.

Now... can someone explain to me why VAH is taking a hammering despite rising 8% on the day of its result AND with Etihad buying?


----------



## Bintang (15 October 2012)

skc said:


> I think you nailed it there. I'd fly EK any day over QF. Better food, newer aircrafts, better service AND better looking hostess.




I don't know about EK but within SE Asia I regularly choose SQ or Garuda over Qantas. I used to thumb my nose at Garuda but they have lifted their game and must now be serious competition for Qantas. For example, just this weekend I tried to make an online booking for 5 business class return tickets with Qantas (from Jakarta) but this morning I have cancelled and booked with Garuda instead. Here is the reason why:

The Qantas reservations were initally accepted but later I received an email telling me that my credit card had not been charged because I first needed to go to a Qantas office in Jakarta and show my credit card. The total fare of USD17,564 would first be converted to Indonesian rupiah at 'the airline's exchange rate' (i.e rip-off rate) before getting charged to my Australian visa card, which would incur further exchange rate losses on conversion back to Australian dollars. Apart from this I was not over-joyed about having to spend 2 hours in Jakarta traffic getting from my place of work to the Qantas office and back within their inconvenient opening hours of 8:30am to 5:00pm Monday to Friday.

So instead I visited to the Garuda website this morning and quickly discovered that I could get 5 business class return tickets for just USD9,558. The Garuda online booking system accepted my Qantas Visa card for payment immediately and within minutes the electronic tickets were issued and in my email inbox.

Congratulations Qantas. You have just lost the sale of 5 business class tickets because of your complicated and inconvenient payment system for online bookings. Even if your fares were lower (which they are not) I would not tolerate the inconvenience you impose and would choose another airline.

If I owned Qantas shares I would be weeping. Fortunately I don't so I am able to laugh about this whole affair instead.


----------



## Bintang (17 October 2012)

Now I've just cancelled 5 domestic flight reservations with Qantas as well. Just discovered that Virgin has business class for 50% less than Qantas, their flight schedules are more convenient and their on-line booking system is easier to use. I don't think there is any hope left for this dinosaur.  It's on its way down the gurgler.


----------



## Bill M (17 October 2012)

Bintang said:


> I don't think there is any hope left for this dinosaur.  It's on its way down the gurgler.




Not so fast, there is still hope. Did you know they are teaming up with Emirates next year? Code sharing, frequent flyer points etc.? (do your own research of course). 

I think this might save them. I don't own any stock in QAN but I fly heaps and Emirates have got a good business happening, far better than QAN and seems as though QAN will get the better benefit through their partnership, cheers.


----------



## Klogg (17 October 2012)

Bill M said:


> Not so fast, there is still hope.




Given their return on equity, I'd argue you're better off holding cash in a term deposit...


----------



## Bintang (18 October 2012)

Bill M said:


> Not so fast, there is still hope. Did you know they are teaming up with Emirates next year? Code sharing, frequent flyer points etc.? (do your own research of course).
> 
> I think this might save them. I don't own any stock in QAN but I fly heaps and Emirates have got a good business happening, far better than QAN and seems as though QAN will get the better benefit through their partnership, cheers.




If you are right that might help them with their international business but what about domestic? They've had domestic business class to themselves since Ansett disappeared but now  it looks like Virgin might give them some stiff competition.
I never considered using Virgin myself until this week when I got 'customer is always wrong' attitude from someone in Qantas reservations. Then I discovered the price difference. I have yet to take the flights and sample the service so may I should keep some judgement in reserve but Virgin would have to do a lot wrong to make me return to the flying kangasaurus.


----------



## Boggo (18 October 2012)

Bintang said:


> I never considered using Virgin myself until this week when I got 'customer is always wrong' attitude from someone in Qantas reservations. Then I discovered the price difference. I have yet to take the flights and sample the service so may I should keep some judgement in reserve but Virgin would have to do a lot wrong to make me return to the flying kangasaurus.




This is an example of the QF domestic approach, they don't even directly employ flighties anymore...
http://www.mam.net.au/default.asp
I will be surprised if you are dissapointed with Virgin Bintang, below is my activity this FY and I head for Sydney with them tomorrow.


----------



## McLovin (18 October 2012)

QAN is introducing a yearly account keeping fee for Bronze (ie lowest level) frequent flyers...It's arguably the worst FF program in the world. I'm glad I switched to American Airlines years ago. Better earn/burn and no fuel fines on awards.


----------



## Bill M (18 October 2012)

McLovin said:


> QAN is introducing a yearly account keeping fee for Bronze (ie lowest level) frequent flyers...It's arguably the worst FF program in the world. I'm glad I switched to American Airlines years ago. Better earn/burn and no fuel fines on awards.




Fair dinkum, they are a bunch of tight wads. I will be blowing my points on a free bee next year and then I will also look for someone else. Yeah, I'm a Bronze member and if they start charging fees then it's just not worth me being a FF member anymore.


----------



## McLovin (19 October 2012)

Bill M said:


> Fair dinkum, they are a bunch of tight wads. I will be blowing my points on a free bee next year and then I will also look for someone else. Yeah, I'm a Bronze member and if they start charging fees then it's just not worth me being a FF member anymore.




If you earn most of your miles from flying instead of spending then check out AA.

Here's the two points tables for comparison...

http://www.qantas.com.au/fflyer/dyn/program/usingPoints/pointsTables#jump3

http://www.aa.com/i18n/disclaimers/aadvantageAllPartnerChart.jsp

With AAdvantage, I can fly Sydney-London in business class for fewer points that it would cost using QF FF in economy. That would be flying on any oneworld airline, ie either QF/BA/Cathay/JAL. As you move up cabins it gets even better. First class on AAdvantage costs 160k points return Syd-Lon but with QF FF it would cost 384k. It's a no brainer really. Taxes and fuel fines are paid by AA but with QF FF you have to pay them. Also AA allows you to purchase 45,000 miles/year (usually they have bonuses when you buy the miles too). This can really work out well as it can mean the difference between economy and business on a longhaul flight

Sorry, I relise this is pretty OT.


----------



## barnso (8 November 2012)

"200 Qantas line maintenance jobs cut in Sydney; 250 contractors at Avalon in Victoria; About 50 jobs elsewhere, including Richmond; 100 new jobs created in Brisbane"

Ouch. I wonder how this will affect the share prices in the near future?


----------



## tigerboi (11 November 2012)

Klogg said:


> Given their return on equity, I'd argue you're better off holding cash in a term deposit...




100% correct  QAN is rubbish & the share price will continue to go down...

perfect example of how to lose money buy QAN...bank pays a better return...


----------



## CanOz (11 January 2013)

> Python clings to Qantas wing on two-hour flight




There must be a joke here somewhere....GG?

Poor little fella...

CanOz


----------



## Buckfont (11 January 2013)

Musta been in one hell of a flap.


----------



## CanOz (11 January 2013)

Buckfont said:


> Musta been in one hell of a flap.




LOL...on a wing and prayer...


----------



## Buckfont (11 January 2013)

Unfortuneately I hear it didn`t get out by the skin of it`s teeth


----------



## oldblue (12 January 2013)

So much for the customary pre-flight visual inspection!

:luigi:


----------



## burglar (12 January 2013)

oldblue said:


> So much for the customary pre-flight visual inspection! ...




 " ... no way the reptile could have accessed the cabin."

Wot, a cabin full of humans?!


----------



## notting (18 January 2013)

Dreamliner - how much crap is being made of this.
Holla for a Marshal!


----------



## McLovin (5 July 2013)

Looks like they're losing a fair bit of market share....It'll be interesting to see how this pans out over the next 12-18 months. My theory on why they're doing so poorly on the Oz-Singapore route is that a lot of regional headquarters are there and a) biz pax heading to Singapore have a woeful Qantas timetable to deal with b) for biz pax on their way to London, they're more likely to have biz stopovers in Singapore than in Dubai. In which case Singapore Airlines (or even BA) is better.

2012 numbers...






2013 numbers...





(my highlighting)


----------



## niknah (5 July 2013)

Qantas has always been going down.

Jetstar is where the growth is here.

That's where the airline business has been going, towards cheaper flights.
Jetstar asia has increased it's Singapore passengers a lot.




McLovin said:


> Looks like they're losing a fair bit of market share....It'll be interesting to see how this pans out over the next 12-18 months. My theory on why they're doing so poorly on the Oz-Singapore route is that a lot of regional headquarters are there and a) biz pax heading to Singapore have a woeful Qantas timetable to deal with b) for biz pax on their way to London, they're more likely to have biz stopovers in Singapore than in Dubai. In which case Singapore Airlines (or even BA) is better.
> 
> 2012 numbers...
> 
> ...


----------



## McLovin (5 July 2013)

niknah said:


> Qantas has always been going down.
> 
> Jetstar is where the growth is here.
> 
> ...




Per the tables I posted, Jetstar has been reducing capacity into Singapore, not increasing it.


----------



## niknah (5 July 2013)

There's a separate entry for "Jetstar Asia"



McLovin said:


> Per the tables I posted, Jetstar has been reducing capacity into Singapore, not increasing it.


----------



## McLovin (5 July 2013)

niknah said:


> There's a separate entry for "Jetstar Asia"




Fair point.

Personally, I think Qantas is shooting themselves in the foot with the Jetstarisation of Qantas routes.


----------



## McLovin (29 August 2013)

Interesting bit of accounting "liberalism" here...



> To more appropriately align the Qantas Group’s revenue re
> cognition and liability measurement estimates with ticket terms
> and conditions and historic experienc
> e, revenue increased by $134 million fo
> ...




Now, if my reading of the accounts is correct, this amount was included in the "underlying NPAT" calculation, even though it is very much a one off boost. If it's true then the underlying result (which isn't worth the paper it's written on, IMO) was worse than last year's.

ETA: As an anecdote, I took a Qantas flight from Singapore to Sydney a few weeks ago and the plane was nearly empty, which wasn't surprising given the awful timing of the flight for business traffic. Apparently loads are way down to many ports in Asia since the Emirates deal.


----------



## ROE (29 August 2013)

McLovin said:


> Fair point.
> 
> Personally, I think Qantas is shooting themselves in the foot with the Jetstarisation of Qantas routes.




Dont think they have a choice, all airline around the world, the only profitable one are the low cost one


----------



## Country Lad (29 August 2013)

I assume the $106 million carbon tax would not apply to their competitors and wouldn't help the bottom line.

Cheers
Country Lad


----------



## McLovin (5 December 2013)

Down 17% today. Another disappointing set of numbers. There must be a way to trade Qantas with some sort of options spread because it is so volatile around the time it reports.

I'm starting to wonder what the end game is for Qantas. Repealing the Sale Act seems out of the question, and with the new PM apparently being a fan of protectionism and corporate welfare, it's starting to look like the government may partly re-nationalise Qantas.


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## Boggo (5 December 2013)

McLovin said:


> ...
> 
> I'm starting to wonder what the end game is for Qantas. Repealing the Sale Act seems out of the question, and with the new PM apparently being a fan of protectionism and corporate welfare, it's starting to look like the government may partly re-nationalise Qantas.




Wasn't it Qantas who objected to the government helping Ansett, funny how the wheel turns eh 

This will solve their problems...
http://www.qantas.com.au/travel/airlines/uniforms/global/en


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## skc (5 December 2013)

McLovin said:


> Down 17% today. Another disappointing set of numbers. There must be a way to trade Qantas with some sort of options spread because it is so volatile around the time it reports.
> 
> I'm starting to wonder what the end game is for Qantas. Repealing the Sale Act seems out of the question, and with the new PM apparently being a fan of protectionism and corporate welfare, it's starting to look like the government may partly re-nationalise Qantas.




Good old Charlie was spruiking QAN just a few months ago.

Very good shorting on the open. Filled at 109, covered at 100. That's precision trading! (Position too small as always )...


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## McLovin (5 December 2013)

skc said:


> Good old Charlie was spruiking QAN just a few months ago.




Charlie "buy on weakness" Aitken?

My favourite quote of his from back in 2008...



> The whole sub-prime issue is over-stated and losses/defaults will be nowhere near where the armageddonists believe.






			
				skc said:
			
		

> Very good shorting on the open. Filled at 109, covered at 100. That's precision trading! (Position too small as always )...




Nice work. It must throw up a few trading opportunities.


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## skc (5 December 2013)

McLovin said:


> Charlie "buy on weakness" Aitken?




There it is...



> The stars are aligning for Qantas, with bottom up fleet efficiency initiatives combining with an improving domestic economy. Charlie Aitken says Qantas is a “strong buy” under $1.50 – his target is $3.00.




http://www.switzersuperreport.com.au/author/charlie-aitken/


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## McLovin (5 December 2013)

skc said:


> There it is...
> 
> 
> 
> http://www.switzersuperreport.com.au/author/charlie-aitken/




Just ridiculous. QAN floated at $2 almost 20 years ago and is at half that value today. He makes it sound like all they need to do is clean the toilets a bit faster and get the plane back in the air and all the problems will go away.


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## MrBurns (5 December 2013)

Charlie Aitken,,,,ahh yes I recall losing money following his tips a while ago.

How on earth does he keep his job ?


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## McLovin (5 December 2013)

MrBurns said:


> Charlie Aitken,,,,ahh yes I recall losing money following his tips a while ago.
> 
> How on earth does he keep his job ?




Well he is a broker, so telling you to buy something with the intention of holding it for 10 years isn't how he's paid.

Aside from that, doesn't his family own a substantial part of Bell Potter?


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## MrBurns (5 December 2013)

McLovin said:


> Well he is a broker, so telling you to buy something with the intention of holding it for 10 years isn't how he's paid.
> Aside from that, doesn't his family own a substantial part of Bell Potter?




This sort of advice should be regulated more, I wonder how much money the "expertise" of Aitkin has cost people.

Friend of a mate of mine was a broker, he eventually got out because......he could no longer stand lying to his clients, true story.


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## McLovin (5 December 2013)

MrBurns said:


> This sort of advice should be regulated more, I wonder how much money the "expertise" of Aitkin has cost people.




I think it should be unregulated for two reasons:

a) How does one prove the advice was bad? It is afterall just an opinion. Even if it turns out to be wrong it doesn't mean it was bad advice. At the very most, an AFSL should tell you that this person isn't going to act in a criminal way with your money, nothing more.

b) If it's not regulated people will be a bit more cautious in who they take advice from.

But that's for another thread.


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## MrBurns (5 December 2013)

McLovin said:


> I think it should be unregulated for two reasons:
> 
> a) How does one prove the advice was bad? It is afterall just an opinion. Even if it turns out to be wrong it doesn't mean it was bad advice.
> 
> ...




The advice is given in such a way as to sound quite credible and there's never a disclaimer given,,,,


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## skc (5 December 2013)

McLovin said:


> I'm starting to wonder what the end game is for Qantas. Repealing the Sale Act seems out of the question, and with the new PM apparently being a fan of protectionism and corporate welfare, it's starting to look like the government may partly re-nationalise Qantas.




May be the government can play private equity. Take QAN national, supply with cheap funding, reduce salaries at the top, sell off assets then re-float it 5 years down the road.

Is there an implicit acknowledgement that QAN will be propped up in the event of bankruptcy? VAH picked up the slack of Ansett, who's going to pick up the scraps of QAN if the worst happen?

Another thing I found interesting... QAN is one of the more prolific users of management consultants. Boston Consulting Group was the one that helped setting up the Jetstar brand to squeeze Virgin into the "middle". But QAN has started using Bain & Co since 2011... who also advised Ansett before its demise. One would hope the lessons have been learnt.


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## McLovin (5 December 2013)

skc said:


> May be the government can play private equity. Take QAN national, supply with cheap funding, reduce salaries at the top, sell off assets then re-float it 5 years down the road.
> 
> Is there an implicit acknowledgement that QAN will be propped up in the event of bankruptcy? VAH picked up the slack of Ansett, who's going to pick up the scraps of QAN if the worst happen?




If they shut down QFi then the domestic business and J* as a regional discount airline is probably going to do OK. I actually think the domestic business isn't that bad. If Qantas concedes market share to Virgin then the two can act like a cosy little duopoly. The Middle East carriers are going to keep smashing Qantas. Emirates just ordered another 50 A380, which takes them to 41 in service and 99 on order (Qantas 12 with 8 on order). The funny thing is without the Emirates orders the A380 would have been a failure in terms of orders. Emirates also will have 115 ultra long haul 777, with an option for another 50. They're going to have so much capacity they could just swamp Qantas. I wonder how long until Emirates asks for permission to fly to LA via Sydney/Melbourne.

I was speaking to someone who works for Qantas and he reckons management is lining up the business to eventually shut down international ops and force it to be the government's problem. That certainly seems to be how Joyce is positioning the company, outsourcing most flights to Emirates and continually lamenting the large losses QFi runs at. Given the historic importance of Qantas to many Australians, they (management) are probably doing the right thing in making it a government issue.


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## Boggo (5 December 2013)

At last count I think there are 43 airlines worldwide operating possibly the best aircraft in the world, the Boeing 777, how many have QF got; answer is none.
Instead they operate the oldest 767's in the world and they expect to be able to compete !
I can see why AJ is using the old 'cost of fuel' trump card again, it is probably true in their case.
On the subject of cases, I wonder if they still get the pallet of Grange Hermitage for upper management at Xmas


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## McLovin (5 December 2013)

Boggo said:


> At last count I think there are 43 airlines worldwide operating possibly the best aircraft in the world, the Boeing 777, how many have QF got; answer is none.
> Instead they operate the oldest 767's in the world and they expect to be able to compete !
> I can see why AJ is using the old 'cost of fuel' trump card again, it is probably true in their case.
> On the subject of cases, I wonder if they still get the pallet of Grange Hermitage for upper management at Xmas 




To be fair, they only use 767 on domestic routes and they were supposed to be replaced but the 787s are running late. You'd struggle to put a 777 on domestic routes.


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## banco (5 December 2013)

skc said:


> May be the government can play private equity. Take QAN national, supply with cheap funding, reduce salaries at the top, sell off assets then re-float it 5 years down the road.




That would be the worst of all worlds.  They wouldn't be in a good position to take on the unions and if they re-float it in five years and don't change the foreign ownership restrictions they'd be back at square one within a few years.


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## Boggo (5 December 2013)

McLovin said:


> To be fair, they only use 767 on domestic routes and they were supposed to be replaced but the 787s are running late. You'd struggle to put a 777 on domestic routes.




The only run where the 767 is of any value is domestic where they are trying to go head to head with VB's A330's.
The triple is at best on long haul so yes you would struggle if you decided to put it on domestic, it should be on the routes where they have their 747's.
Take Cathay and Emirates as a couple of examples where the triple replaced the B747.


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## Garpal Gumnut (5 December 2013)

McLovin said:


> Just ridiculous. QAN floated at $2 almost 20 years ago and is at half that value today. He makes it sound like all they need to do is clean the toilets a bit faster and get the plane back in the air and all the problems will go away.




I must admit to being blindsided by all this kerfuffle about Qantas being near broke.

Thankfully I have never owned shares in QAN, a brief foray in to VAH left me lucky to exit at breakeven. Investing in airlines is for the birds.

I must also admit, since some disgraceful lousy service on Virgin, to being wedded to Qantas as a passenger, spending many frequent pleasant afternoons of late throwing back double G and T's, and those dreadful near nut crunchie things, in the Qantas Lounge, prior to entering the exit row.

I do like the soup.

In an effort to support our national carrier, I will now not eat those dreadful near nut crunchie things.

Sacrifices need to be made, belts tightened and so on and so forth.

I do not however see QAN as a buy, as I know their customer base is such as I, venal, greedy and fickle.

gg


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## McLovin (6 December 2013)

Boggo]The only run where the 767 is of any value is domestic where they are trying to go head to head with VB's A330's.[/QUOTE]

Qantas runs a330s domestically. Like I said said:


> Take Cathay and Emirates as a couple of examples where the triple replaced the B747.




Ahhh...I have a Cathay flight next week all the way to Heathrow. I'd never go back to Qantas business once I tried Cathay/Singapore. Even British is better than Qantas. 

The upper deck on the 747 still wins, IMO. Quiet as hell and feels like a "cabin".

I think I do much flying


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## Smurf1976 (6 December 2013)

What a pathetic joke this mob have become.

Just before 10am this morning I received a text message saying that my flight (Jetstar) supposed to leave at 3:10pm this afternoon is delayed until 6:25pm due to delays with an inbound aircraft.

The web link provided to retrieve booking details doesn't work. And they are still selling seats on this flight, supposedly leaving at 3:10pm, two hours later for $349.

I'll be flying Virgin from now on. Another customer lost not due to the delay as such, but due to the sheer amount of stuffing around and outright dishonesty.


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## CanOz (6 December 2013)

Downgraded to junk...


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## piggybank (18 January 2014)




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## Valued (18 January 2014)

I think some people are going to get trapped here trying to pick the recent price action as a market bottom. It's been in a line since 24 December. Prices are either forming a line of support or bobbing up against an area of resistance. I would say this is an area of resistance. At any rate, there is a huge supply zone above the current price where people who held are now going to come back into break even. Those who bought on the lows, sub $1, are going to eventually notice this as an area of resistance and sell into it. This will end up trapping some people.

This is one of the cases where people should go look at the balance sheet and see just how much this company is in bad shape. QAN is returning less than a term deposit in equity year on year. People would do well to factor in interest rates. If a company is getting 3% in returns per year and paying no dividends, it makes no economical sense for anyone to hold it when they can put their money in a term deposit and get 4% without any risk. There is no chance of QAN coming across a miracle like a gold explorer can find gold. It is what it is. Any changes will be slow and will take a long time. 

Anyone who says this stock cannot get any lower is wrong.


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## piggybank (18 January 2014)

Valued said:


> I think some people are going to get trapped here trying to pick the recent price action as a market bottom. It's been in a line since 24 December. Prices are either forming a line of support or bobbing up against an area of resistance. I would say this is an area of resistance. At any rate, there is a huge supply zone above the current price where people who held are now going to come back into break even. Those who bought on the lows, sub $1, are going to eventually notice this as an area of resistance and sell into it. This will end up trapping some people.
> 
> This is one of the cases where people should go look at the balance sheet and see just how much this company is in bad shape. QAN is returning less than a term deposit in equity year on year. People would do well to factor in interest rates. If a company is getting 3% in returns per year and paying no dividends, it makes no economical sense for anyone to hold it when they can put their money in a term deposit and get 4% without any risk. There is no chance of QAN coming across a miracle like a gold explorer can find gold. It is what it is. Any changes will be slow and will take a long time.
> 
> Anyone who says this stock cannot get any lower is wrong.




Hi Valued,

Thank you for sharing your view(s) with us. I read the other day that they have been voted the safest airline (in the World) by AirlineRatings.com with Air New Zealand coming in second (who's share price is presently hitting 6 year highs on the ASX:AIZ). If the viability depended on how safe the airline was, then Qantas wouldn't be far off the top - which has a fatality free record in the jet era (since 1951). To read more about this can be seen by clicking on this link:- http://www.airlineratings.com/news/201/qantas-the-safest-airline If that doesn't work then copy & paste the address into an empty address box.

Do you think if Alan Joyce was to leave the company (either by being pushed or his own choice), would it have a positive (or negative effect) on the share price?

Cheers
PB


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## Valued (18 January 2014)

piggybank said:


> Hi Valued,
> 
> 
> Do you think if Alan Joyce was to leave the company (either by being pushed or his own choice), would it have a positive (or negative effect) on the share price?
> ...





It would depend if the stock was in professional accumulation or distribution as to whether it would go up or down. A large operator could take advantage of the news to how they like.

I don't think you can value a company based on how many people they kill or don't kill either lol. Do people pick QAN because they think there is less chance of them dying or do they pick the airline with the lowest price?


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## galumay (18 January 2014)

I have always liked Buffet's thoughts on airlines,

“If a capitalist had been present at Kitty Hawk back in the early 1900s, he should have shot Orville Wright. He would have saved his progeny money. 

But seriously, the airline business has been extraordinary. It has eaten up capital over the past century like almost no other business because people seem to keep coming back to it and putting fresh money in. 

You’ve got huge fixed costs, you’ve got strong labor unions and you’ve got commodity pricing. That is not a great recipe for success. 

I have an 800 (free call) number now that I call if I get the urge to buy an airline stock. I call at two in the morning and I say: ‘My name is Warren and I’m an aeroholic.’ And then they talk me down.”


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## piggybank (19 January 2014)

Valued said:


> Do people pick QAN because they think there is less chance of them dying or do they pick the airline with the lowest price?




Actually I bet a few people (who have a phobia of flying) go with Qantas believe it or not. I remember shortly after 9/11, that a married couple decided to catch a train (because of a fear that there maybe another hijacking) to go to their son's wedding. Unfortunately though the train they were travelling on to their sons house got derailed resulting in several deaths including this couple. In matter of fact it is safer flying on an airplane than any other mode of transport.

http://www.bbc.com/travel/blog/20120127-travelwise-what-is-the-safest-mode-of-travel 

http://www.businessinsider.com.au/f...ds-of-dying-as-a-pedal-cyclist-at-1-in-4982-1

http://www.policymic.com/articles/53293/7-reasons-flying-is-still-the-safest-way-to-travel


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## Valued (19 January 2014)

piggybank said:


> Actually I bet a few people (who have a phobia of flying) go with Qantas believe it or not. I remember shortly after 9/11, that a married couple decided to catch a train (because of a fear that there maybe another hijacking) to go to their son's wedding. Unfortunately though the train they were travelling on to their sons house got derailed resulting in several deaths including this couple. In matter of fact it is safer flying on an airplane than any other mode of transport.
> 
> http://www.bbc.com/travel/blog/20120127-travelwise-what-is-the-safest-mode-of-travel
> 
> ...




I am saying this while meaning no offense at all to you. A large percentage of people think the way you think, including some successful traders. For example, Gann said a lot of stupid stuff to be perfectly honest. The guy was a lunatic lol. What you just said though is the reason people lose money. What they do is they take an idea, such as QAN being the safest airline, and find reasons for it to manifest in their views. What you have done is pointed out how a few people may have a fear of flying. This has not even reached the stage of confirmation bias since you have not met these people. However, given the small percentage of them in terms of overall customer base, the effect is negligible. Further, if you did know of some, it would likely amount to confirmation bias. Moreover, if people were scared of flying, they would likely aim to avoid flying and not become frequent customers of a particular airline.

What you have said about the train derailing is a strawman fallacy. Planes may be safer than trains or they may not be. I am not sure. I am not an engineer. The fact that a train has once derailed is not evidence for that fact. However, if what you say is true, it's irrelevant. A train derailing is not going to make QAN a better company than it is now. It's not going to make us buy shares in this company.

Trying to fit the evidence to one's view point is a mistake most people make. They cannot admit to themselves that they are wrong. The reason is that logic isn't taught in many schools. It is taught in some schools through electives, but it's relatively rare. I am fortunate enough to know a lecturer of logic and philosophy. Most people do not learn things like confirmation bias, logical fallacies and how deductive and inductive logic works. Learning propositional logic is not hard and it doesn't take much work, just most people do not know it exists. It's what holds many back from success in their day to day lives. They lack the logic to defend themselves against attacks by those that would have their opinion influences e.g. advertisers, the media, politicians who intentionally mislead etc.


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## galumay (19 January 2014)

Valued said:


> ...The reason is that logic isn't taught in many schools. ...




Agree totally, I found the study of behavioural psychology one of the most important tools to improving my investment (and everything else) decision making. 

A great starting point is Munger's lecture, "The Psychology of Human Misjudgment"


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## Smurf1976 (19 January 2014)

I suspect that Qantas pulling out of Tasmania will in hindsight be seen as the beginning of the end in many ways. Whilst Hobart and Launceston are small markets compared to Sydney or Melbourne, I do see it as significant that the supposed "national" airline no longer flies to every Australian state.

"Qantas" services to Tas are now either by "QantasLink" or in most cases Jetstar, there no longer being actual Qantas mainline services. And Jetstar is, of course, notoriously unreliable.

It's a small decision in terms of their overall operations, but I do see it as symbolic of Qantas' broader problems. By any reasonable definition, Australia's "national" airline is now Virgin, not Qantas, since Virgin is the only airline that actually flies under its' own name to every state plus the NT and ACT.

So far as safety is concerned, I don't dispute Qantas' track record but I do have concerns. I've never worked for an airline, but I've spent plenty of time working with assets where significant maintenance is required to keep them going. That's either work "on the tools" or with planning the work of others. And it has always been the same story. When times are good a lot of maintenance gets done. When times are tough, maintenance is always the first thing to be cut at least in terms of budgets. At best, it gets done more cheaply or less often. At worst, it doesn't get done at all.

I'm aware that aviation is a highly regulated industry in terms of safety, but I find it hard to believe that an airline struggling financially would be maintaining things as well as one that's profitable. Maybe they do, but I seriously doubt it. All that gives me a nasty "it's only a matter of time" feeling so far as safety is concerned. 

From an investment perspective, I'm keeping well away from this one. It looks as though, slowly but surely, it's falling apart.


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## matty77 (19 January 2014)

Joyce is there to run it into the ground so then Jetstar can "take over" what Qantas left behind (including the 30 year baggage that QAN carries) no pun intended.

QAN was dead 5 years ago but nobody has noticed yet.


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## Garpal Gumnut (19 January 2014)

An interesting article from Grace Collier in the Weekend Australian.

http://www.theaustralian.com.au/opinion/columnists/workplace-apartheid-clips-wings/story-fnkdypbm-1226804170465

It indicates that the company is hog-tied by an ageing workforce with a sense of entitlement, on unsustainable wages.

Anyone putting their hard earned in to QAN after reading it, needs their head examined. 

Nobody can save this union bedevilled company with a dual pay structure depending on deals struck in the sixties, on seniority.

Best it go to the dogs, and be resurrected as a new company.

gg


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## galumay (19 January 2014)

Garpal Gumnut said:


> Nobody can save this union bedevilled company with a dual pay structure depending on deals struck in the sixties, on seniority.
> 
> Best it go to the dogs, and be resurrected as a new company.
> 
> gg




Typical Murdoch rubbish IMO, wages arent the problem with this or any other airline. The problems are mainly structural and common to all all airlines. Labour costs are actually are fairly small % of the business costs.


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## tinhat (19 January 2014)

I haven't read through this thread for some time and I haven't read the recent flurry of posts. I just wish to remind readers that - in terms of market economics - there are no profits in airlines. International air travel is a fully contestable market. There is no profit in the long run. 

I looked into REX a while ago because it had a decent dividend yield and seemed to be making reasonable returns in servicing regional domestic routes. Turns out it was on the back of government subsidies and perhaps the mining boom. I did not buy as their business did not seem compelling and I know that airlines do not make money.

There are two industries I studied whilst an undergraduate with a microeconomics minor at UNSW some 25+ years ago. Airlines and electricity distribution. I can tell you - and all power to the academics that taught me against the fancy-pancy intellectualism of the time (remember that John Hewson was Professor of Economics at UNSW at that time) - that what I was taught about those two industries and what was the academic observation of them turned out to be 100% correct.

The airline industry is highly contestable and there are no super-normal profits.


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## coolcup (19 January 2014)

tinhat said:


> I haven't read through this thread for some time and I haven't read the recent flurry of posts. I just wish to remind readers that - in terms of market economics - there are no profits in airlines. International air travel is a fully contestable market. There is no profit in the long run.
> 
> I looked into REX a while ago because it had a decent dividend yield and seemed to be making reasonable returns in servicing regional domestic routes. Turns out it was on the back of government subsidies and perhaps the mining boom. I did not buy as their business did not seem compelling and I know that airlines do not make money.
> 
> ...




Can you share the observation on electricity distribution?


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## DJG (20 January 2014)

The majority of Australian's would prefer to save 500 dollars and fly an inferior air line safety wise than fly the safest in the world. Look at the flurry of budget airlines. 

Statically speaking there may be a higher chance of having a train crash or similar than a plane crash yet the change of survival from a plane crash is probably almost 0 in most cases. So therefore I view it has having no merit in general, let alone investing. 

I'm also interested in the electricity distribution write up being an undergrad myself. 

I'll be watching this thread with interest on what not to invest in.


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## piggybank (20 January 2014)

DJG said:


> The majority of Australian's would prefer to save 500 dollars and fly an inferior air line safety wise than fly the safest in the world. Look at the flurry of budget airlines.




Well given that the majority of most people (here in Australia) don't purchase brand new cars made in Australia, it is not surprising that the car industry here is going to the wall. So if they don't want to help keep their fellow country folk in work, why should they care about Qantas flying into oblivion?:1zhelp:

In an earlier post I did on this thread pertaining "to a *few people* who prefer to fly with Qantas because of its safety record" has been taken out of context. After all how many people buy a *car* because of its safety rating?

Regards
PB


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## coolcup (20 January 2014)

> After all how many people buy a *car* because of its safety rating?




It is actually one of the first things I look at. If it is not safe, then I won't feel right putting my family in it.


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## DJG (20 January 2014)

piggybank said:


> Well given that the majority of most people (here in Australia) don't purchase brand new cars made in Australia, it is not surprising that the car industry here is going to the wall. So if they don't want to help keep their fellow country folk in work, why should they care about Qantas flying into oblivion?:1zhelp:



 

Exactly, and it's usually the same people who are doing that are the first to complain that we're being bought out by foreigners not realising the contradictoriness of it all. 



> In an earlier post I did on this thread pertaining "to a *few people* who prefer to fly with Qantas because of its safety record" has been taken out of context. After all how many people buy a *car* because of its safety rating?
> 
> Regards
> PB




I know of a few parents that will only allow their kids to buy their first car with decent safety ratings. I don't know what extent adults go to in order to make sure they only buy safe cars.


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## tinhat (20 January 2014)

coolcup said:


> Can you share the observation on electricity distribution?




Warning - Off Topic. As I recall, it was basically that a price regulated natural monopoly such as an electricity supplier has little incentive to minimise its costs, especially where the regulator sets price on a cost basis (cost plus margin) especially when management's remuneration is also based or justified by the turnover of the business. Management is more likely to feather their own nests, be more amenable to union demands and generally inflate their cost base. 

This is also the case of pricing based on a return on investment model as is the case in NSW. The blatant "gold plating" of the electricity distribution infrastructure in NSW in recent years is a classic response to a poorly framed regulatory regime. Electricity distributors have been pouring money into inefficient infrastructure spending, relatively risk free (given that electricity demand is relatively inelastic and distribution is a natural monopoly), knowing that the regulator has to set a price that will guarantee a minimum rate of return on that investment.


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## Boggo (20 January 2014)

tinhat said:


> Warning - Off Topic. As I recall, it was basically that a price regulated natural monopoly such as an electricity supplier has little incentive to minimise its costs, especially where the regulator sets price on a cost basis (cost plus margin) especially when management's remuneration is also based or justified by the turnover of the business. Management is more likely to feather their own nests, be more amenable to union demands and generally inflate their cost base.
> 
> This is also the case of pricing based on a return on investment model as is the case in NSW. The blatant "gold plating" of the electricity distribution infrastructure in NSW in recent years is a classic response to a poorly framed regulatory regime. Electricity distributors have been pouring money into inefficient infrastructure spending, relatively risk free (given that electricity demand is relatively inelastic and distribution is a natural monopoly), knowing that the regulator has to set a price that will guarantee a minimum rate of return on that investment.




Apologies - continuing off topic momentarily.
I remember being told by someone in the know that *the cost of water in SA would be the cost of running the "business" + $1million per day* when asked what the cost of supplying water was.

SA Water has a glamorous multistory admin building right in the centre of the CBD and that has all floors illuminated 24/7, they should be out in an industrial area same as private businesses can only afford to be.

Guess how much profit SA Water made last year, yep, $362 million.
http://www.adelaidenow.com.au/news/...-keep-increasing/story-fni6uo1m-1226770870802

Part of the problem that Qantas has is the Govt inverted pyramid management structure approach which they are reluctant to change. Has anyone seen the current massive expansion of their offices on Bourke Rd, Mascot, it's as if they were a thriving profitable business.

That mentality could and did survive in aviation years ago but since the advent of EasyJet and RyanAir in Europe and Southwest in the States all aviation companies have to be run competitively, a concept that is still foreign to QF.


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## Smurf1976 (20 January 2014)

tinhat said:


> The blatant "gold plating" of the electricity distribution infrastructure in NSW in recent years is a classic response to a poorly framed regulatory regime. Electricity distributors have been pouring money into inefficient infrastructure spending, relatively risk free (given that electricity demand is relatively inelastic and distribution is a natural monopoly), knowing that the regulator has to set a price that will guarantee a minimum rate of return on that investment.




It's off the topic of Qantas (maybe we should have a generic "how to spot a viable / dud industry thread"? but with electricity distribution it's essentially the same everywhere.

There's one distributor who is also the monopoly retailer for small customers (households etc) in that area and they basically structured their pricing to intentionally drive peak demand as high as possible in order to justify further network investment, fully aware that they'd get a guaranteed rate of return on that investment. In short, with their "time of use" customers they set the rates such that prices went down during the peak demand periods and up at off-peak times, thus encouraging consumers to shift load into the peaks. And for non-time of use (conventional electricity metering) customers they introduced daily fees for off-peak tariffs and set the off-peak rates not far below the standard rate, thus removing the incentive to use off-peak. Consumption on the off-peak rate subsequently dropped 60% over a few years with virtually all of that load transferred onto 24 hour supply rates. They also structured their network pricing similarly with regard to off-peak, thus preventing any other retailer from offering sensible rates.

Needless to say, this all resulted in a lot of investment upgrading the network to cope with the surge in peak demand. They managed to spend a fortune and also roughly doubled their staff numbers too.

And as if that wasn't enough, for some strange reason they became a bit upset that the generator (operator of power stations) needed to charge a price that covered the cost of supplying this increasingly peaky load and was charging the retailer roughly double what they charge direct connect (not via a retailer) baseload customers (which is basically large factories running 24/7/365). And so they went looking for a new generating company and found someone willing to build a brand new plant to supply them. And so they signed up, at a price even higher than what they were paying previously.

What happened? Well the generating company almost went bust due to external factors relating to the GFC. And so the retailer ended up owning the power station. And yep, it practically sent them broke too once they realised that their production costs were higher than the market price for power.

So where's it at now? Well the generating company that used to supply this retailer has aquired their power station and is now operating it more sensibly with respect to the cost of supply from other sources leading to a 5% drop in household power bills - not huge but it's a start. Government is in the process of ending the retail monopoly. And the transmission company, a separate entity to either the generator or the retailer, is taking over the distribution network. Oh, and they've sacked hundreds of workers too.

The generation side of the industry is highly competitive and cost focused, it pretty much always has been to be honest even back in the old days. Even if the generator has a monopoly (eg Tasmania), there's nothing to prevent a southerly flow of power across Bass Strait and/or someone else building power stations if the generator gets greedy. That plus having 50% of your sales to industries which could easily relocate offshore drives home the cost message pretty sharply. Bulk power was worth around $40 / MWh 25 years ago and if you exclude the carbon tax then it's actually worth a bit less than that today - in real terms the price has massively declined. Networks, on the other hand, are virtually a license to print money. You have a guaranteed rate of return that is itself rather profitable, and can invest basically as much as you like all with a guaranteed return. 

So far as Qantas is concerned, they need to face reality that their business is akin to that of the power generators, not the distributors. They're in a competitive market that's actually quite similar to electricity generation with it's high fixed costs, varying demand levels and fluctuating fuel costs - similar in a lot of ways. Either they produce a premium product and sell that into the limited market which exists for it, or they compete in the commodity market. That's exactly what the power generators are doing, maximising production of anything sold at a premium (high demand days, green power, large scale renewable generation certificates) and selling the rest as a bulk commodity. Qantas is in a very similar business whether they realise it or not.


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## Smurf1976 (20 January 2014)

Boggo said:


> SA Water has a glamorous multistory admin building right in the centre of the CBD and that has all floors illuminated 24/7, they should be out in an industrial area same as private businesses can only afford to be.
> 
> Guess how much profit SA Water made last year, yep, $362 million.



What happened to the other $3 million in potential profit? Better not tell them or they'll put the prices up.....

Whilst I don't live in Adelaide, I've noticed that building whilst there on holidays and it certainly does stand out. It's not your run of the mill generic office building at least externally. Not that I mind fancy architecture, but I'd expect that it's a fairly expensive location, being right in the CBD, for a company that doesn't really need to be located there. Maybe that's where the $3 million goes?


----------



## Boggo (20 January 2014)

Smurf1976 said:


> What happened to the other $3 million in potential profit? Better not tell them or they'll put the prices up.....



There are a few successful establishments in the vicinity where long lunches are the norm, same establishments seem to have high temperatures all year round too but the female staff seem to be able to keep cool  



Smurf1976 said:


> Whilst I don't live in Adelaide, I've noticed that building whilst there on holidays and it certainly does stand out. It's not your run of the mill generic office building at least externally. Not that I mind fancy architecture, but I'd expect that it's a fairly expensive location, being right in the CBD, for a company that doesn't really need to be located there. Maybe that's where the $3 million goes?




Their spokesperson has no problems complaining in the media about the cost of running the business - I wonder why they have such overheads


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## matty77 (20 January 2014)

Comparing buying a new car and checking its safety ratings and flying on an airline and checking its safety is really clutching at straws. With the cheap flights now days safety is not the first priority of a passenger, you can fly a low cost airline and still get good safety. If QAN honestly  believe their safety record is even a selling point then they must be kidding themselves (and I know they dont think that anyway)

What killed QAN? 

When QAN was profitable they were charging 10 x as much for flights so could afford not to be efficient and provide above and beyond services. Fact is they just haven't changed quick enough with the times, low cost airlines are now the go. Honestly though QAN dont need to change, they never could change anyway even if they wanted to as the Unions all kick up a fuss etc. So the only option out was to form a new airline (insert Jetstar here) and then run QAN into the ground over the next 10 years.. I would expect Jetstar to get some great infrastructure once QAN finally dies without the Union and staff baggage that QAN has created over its lifetime.

Why do you think Holden is closing down? Nothing to do with people not buying their cars, its supply and demand which is dictated by PRICE. Holden are paying the AVERAGE guy on the factory floor OVER $100K PER YEAR. Seriously do you think any manufacturing company can survive with those sorts of wages? Lets not forget all the other perks these guys get that work there as well. Basically the Unions have increased cost of production so much now not even the government can cover the short fall.

Will you pay $110,000 for your new next Holden or just go buy a Toyota or Mazda that is just as good for half the price? I want to be loyal to Australian brands, but I aint that loyal to make stupid purchases.

Same thing happened to Mitsubishi in Adelaide..

QAN is a dead horse, competition from low cost airlines and the unions made sure of that.


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## Garpal Gumnut (20 January 2014)

matty77 said:


> Comparing buying a new car and checking its safety ratings and flying on an airline and checking its safety is really clutching at straws. With the cheap flights now days safety is not the first priority of a passenger, you can fly a low cost airline and still get good safety. If QAN honestly  believe their safety record is even a selling point then they must be kidding themselves (and I know they dont think that anyway)
> 
> What killed QAN?
> 
> ...




+1

Makes sense.

gg


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## Bill M (20 January 2014)

matty77 said:


> What killed QAN?
> 
> When QAN was profitable they were charging 10 x as much for flights so could afford not to be efficient and provide above and beyond services. Fact is they just haven't changed quick enough with the times, low cost airlines are now the go. Honestly though QAN dont need to change, they never could change anyway even if they wanted to as the Unions all kick up a fuss etc. So the only option out was to form a new airline (insert Jetstar here) and then run QAN into the ground over the next 10 years.. I would expect Jetstar to get some great infrastructure once QAN finally dies without the Union and staff baggage that QAN has created over its lifetime.




Hi matty I agree with you mate. I have been flying O/S since the late 70's and I can vouch that in my opinion QF services have degraded over the years. Over the last few years I started flying BA and Emirates and both of those Airlines are better than QAN, Emirates being the standout. 

Things have changed a bit lately as far as price is concerned, these days QAN can offer better prices than others but I prefer to choose QAN last. My reason for that is their lousy service and menus on board in economy. Also since the start of Flight code sharing with Emirates they have changed their own QF flight schedules and they really don't suit me. The only positive about the airline in my opinion is the Frequent Flyer Program which is pretty good. My way of preference now is booking with Emirates and picking up half the points with QFF.

It is unfortunate, at the end of the day it comes down to basics, service, schedules, meals on board. QAN doesn't cut it for me anymore, nor would I buy their shares as an investment.


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## matty77 (21 January 2014)

you or anyone else would be crazy to buy shares in QAN.

And they are (or have?) sold the Frequent Flyer portion of the business?


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## Boggo (21 January 2014)

matty77 said:


> ...
> 
> And they are (or have?) sold the Frequent Flyer portion of the business?




I have the new QF frequent flyer card where you can also load it up with money in any currency if travelling OS.

Have heard a horror story where someone did that, went OS but because of the points gained on that flight over their status was changed and the card that they held couldn't be used and consequently their money wasn't accessible.
Another well thought out plan if true !


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## Bill M (21 January 2014)

They haven't done it yet but they are thinking about flogging off the QFF program as well as a partial sale of Jetstar.

---
QANTAS will keep a controlling stake in its Frequent Flyer program if the cash-strapped airline spins off the lucrative division, industry experts believe.

Another analysts, who asked not to be named, said selling a minority stake in the program was an "obvious" place to find money.

Other options to raise cash for Qantas include a partial sale of Jetstar, the sale of airport terminal assets or even the bulk sale of frequent flyer points.

http://www.heraldsun.com.au/business/qantas-frequent-flyer-selloff-the-cards/story-fni0dcne-1226802713785
---


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## Smurf1976 (21 January 2014)

Bill M said:


> They haven't done it yet but they are thinking about flogging off the QFF program as well as a partial sale of Jetstar.




If Jetstar is supposedly the future of Qantas, on the basis that Qantas mainline operations aren't competitive due to structural issues that are difficult if not impossible to overcome, then selling Jetstar sounds like an act of outright desperation to raise cash.

If a business sells something that doesn't "fit" with their overall operations then I can understand that. Eg if Qantas owned a chain of restaurants then that's a very different business and I could see the logic in selling it in order to concentrate time, effort and financial resources on running the main activity which is the airline. Likewise if they owned a railway company, pubs, retail stores or anything else that isn't relating to aviation I could see why they might want to sell it.

But selling Jetstar? Either they've decided that Jetstar was a mistake and want to be rid of it or they're getting desperate. My bet is on the latter.

I can't help but notice that Virgin are taking essentially the opposite approach to Qantas. Eg they've upgraded their services both in terms of professionalism and adding Business Class seats to their planes in order to attract higher paying customers. Meanwhile Qantas service is getting worse it would seem. Virgin bought into Tiger meanwhile Qantas are apparently considering selling Jetstar. The two are taking the opposite approach. 

Given that Virgin as a group, not just the Australian airline but their overall operations in all sorts of things both aviation and other, have been pretty successful I'd expect that they have a long term strategy and also a lot of patience. Slowly but surely, they're putting it into place as opportunities arise.

I don't invest in airlines, one of my criteria for buying stocks on fundamentals is that the underlying industry is profitable (and airlines are notoriously good at losing money) but if I was going to buy either Qantas or Virgin then it would definitely be the latter since at least they seem to have some sort of plan for where the business is going which doesn't depend on asking government or anyone else for a handout.


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## Garpal Gumnut (21 January 2014)

I have cashed out all my QAN Frequent Flyer points for Shopping Vouchers.

If QAN go belly up, it will be quick and brutal.

Very brutal.

gg


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## matty77 (21 January 2014)

Selling the only 2 parts of the business that is making a profit sounds like the government selling utilities...

But seriously they must be desperate to want to sell any of Jetstar, unless to a competitor that then gives QAN a stronger position in the market somehow... (highly unlikely)


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## DJG (21 January 2014)

As mentioned in one of the previous posts regarding how much Qantas pads up Jetstar's financials through paying for legal fee's and everything else. How well could Jetstar honestly go anyway if Qantas was to spin them off and they were by themselves?

Would they just end up following the same fate as Qantas, only slower. There Jetstar Asia hasn't exactly been a hit.


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## McLovin (27 February 2014)

What a shocker. 5,000 jobs gone. Routes axed including Perth-Singapore (which is pretty ridiculous for a so called national carrier). 50 aircraft to be sold or deferred delivery. The board and Joyce need to be sacked.


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## Knobby22 (27 February 2014)

McLovin said:


> What a shocker. 5,000 jobs gone. Routes axed including Perth-Singapore (which is pretty ridiculous for a so called national carrier). 50 aircraft to be sold or deferred delivery. The board and Joyce need to be sacked.




True. They have made some very average decisions, especially the deal with that gulf country airline.


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## McLovin (27 February 2014)

Knobby22 said:


> True. They have made some very average decisions, especially the deal with that gulf country airline.




I've got an international flight on Qantas in a couple of weeks. I'm wondering what the chances of strikes are.


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## craggles123 (27 February 2014)

Garpal Gumnut said:


> I have cashed out all my QAN Frequent Flyer points for Shopping Vouchers.
> 
> If QAN go belly up, it will be quick and brutal.
> 
> ...




I've considered doing this as well, I've got about 200,000 points sititng their though, would have preffered using it to take the family somewhere but that wont be happeing anytime soon and who knows whats going to happen to qantas...


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## Knobby22 (27 February 2014)

McLovin said:


> I've got an international flight on Qantas in a couple of weeks. I'm wondering what the chances of strikes are.




I have a feeling this is where the deal with the government comes in. They want to set the precedent of a wage freeze but the unions may decide to push against this.
Good luck!


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## skc (27 February 2014)

McLovin said:


> What a shocker. 5,000 jobs gone. Routes axed including Perth-Singapore (which is pretty ridiculous for a so called national carrier). 50 aircraft to be sold or deferred delivery. The board and Joyce need to be sacked.




No. 

The performance of the airline is _unacceptable and unsustainable_. The performance of the Board and Mr Joyce have been awesome. Sack everyone except the Board. That way it will reduce losses to ~$10m a year - a significant turnaround. It will also continue to invest in new air hostess attires to show their committment to better customer service.


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## Wysiwyg (27 February 2014)

McLovin said:


> What a shocker. 5,000 jobs gone. Routes axed including Perth-Singapore (which is pretty ridiculous for a so called national carrier). 50 aircraft to be sold or deferred delivery. The board and *Joyce need to** be sacked*.



Yes. 
The managerial plan for an efficient and profitable company has failed yet it's the employees that have to take that responsibility. Why are staff employed when not absolutely required? Joyce is a failure and should go now.


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## McLovin (27 February 2014)

skc said:


> No.
> 
> The performance of the airline is _unacceptable and unsustainable_. The performance of the Board and Mr Joyce have been awesome. Sack everyone except the Board. That way it will reduce losses to ~$10m a year - a significant turnaround. It will also continue to invest in new air hostess attires to show their committment to better customer service.




Oh the new uniforms make a huge difference!

I was speaking to someone who works at Qantas, basically the problems go back to Dixon. He decided that Qantas should buy those A380's, which internally are considered to have been a very poor decision. They are too heavy and when they're carrying a full load of passengers (a) have to fly slowly to reduce fuel burn (b) have to carry significantly reduced amounts of cargo. It's so bad, Qantas was actually considering bringing in its own cargo aircraft to plug the hole. (c) It's meant Qantas is running a crappy schedule for business (ie money makers) travellers. Take Sydney-Hong Kong, Cathay is going to be flying 5x daily on an A330 (which is a smaller aircraft) whereas Qantas has one flight/day on the A380. If you want timetable flexibility, you go with Cathay. The same is happening on flights to Singapore.

Dixon also didn't like Borghetti personally, but loved Joyce. Whereas almost everyone in QAN believed that Borghetti was far better suited to the job, Dixon picked Joyce. He's really killed staff morale. Running a profitable airline is exceedingly difficult, but Joyce really seems to have screwed the pooch.

I'm sure Borghetti is giggling like a school girl over at Virgin!


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## Boggo (27 February 2014)

McLovin said:


> Oh the new uniforms make a huge difference!




And the newly renovated management building on Bourke Rd looks spectacular too and should make an enormous difference


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## drsmith (27 February 2014)

Interesting tid bit on this evening's ABC PM current affairs show,  



> BRENDAN TREMBATH: The airline will defer delivery of eight Airbus A380-800s, the distinctive wide bodied double-deckers.
> 
> FRANK ROBERTS: We call them the dugong. When they're in the landing configuration they look like a dugong grazing on the bottom of the ocean.
> 
> ...




http://www.abc.net.au/pm/content/2014/s3953793.htm

For context, I also post a link that outlines Nathan Safe's role.

http://www.aipa.org.au/

My bolds.


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## McLovin (28 February 2014)

Borghetti getting stuck into them...



> Mr Borghetti says he opposes the government providing a debt guarantee to Qantas.
> 
> “We have earned our right to exist,” he said.
> 
> ...




Get rid of the Sale Act but it's completely unreasonable to give a debt guarantee to a private company merely because management are incompetant and/or the competition is doing a better job.


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## skc (28 February 2014)

McLovin said:


> Borghetti getting stuck into them...




Definitely a good drama to watch...



McLovin said:


> Get rid of the Sale Act but it's completely unreasonable to give a debt guarantee to a private company merely because management are incompetant and/or the competition is doing a better job.




Well I think you don't ditch the Sale Act (which essentially means the government thinks QAN is strategically important) then there's some case of offering a debt guarantee. 

Although what's the implication of a debt guarantee?

Interest costs will likely drop but they only paid $96m in the half year so that alone is not going to move the dial.

But if there's a debt guarantee which basically means unlimited access to the debt market, you would just replace as much equity with debt as you can and turbocharge the ROE... 

But QAN's return on equity has been pretty poor (and probably lower than the cost of debt over the long run) and the shareholders don't really "demand" much return, may be it'd be worse off


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## McLovin (3 March 2014)

skc said:


> Although what's the implication of a debt guarantee?




I think it's because once you break the seal then the hop to government equity support becomes a lot shorter. Realistically, there is no way the government will let Qantas fail. Even with all the tough talk on ending entitlements etc, it would be far too unpopular to let what many consider to be an icon of Australia to fall into a heap. Having said that, a debt guarantee also comes with an implied vote of confidence in managment and the board because they're pretty much being given a blank cheque courtesy of John Q Taxpayer. I doubt the government wants to send such a message.


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## matty77 (5 March 2014)

oh haven't they gone under yet?
"
but seriously I feel sorry for anyone that holds, and anyone that purchased this "solid Australian owned company"


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## Boggo (5 March 2014)

From an article in the media in 2001 when Ansett was about to go belly up...

_Crucially for Virgin Blue and Qantas, the Federal Government ruled out any sort of financial rescue or support package to keep Ansett flying.

In a rare coincidence of interest, both surviving carriers lobbied hard in Canberra to point out that this would be ruinous for the public purse, not to mention theirs.

There could be no fair competition if Ansett was kept alive with the necessary massive transfusion of taxpayer funds._


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## nulla nulla (6 March 2014)

Wysiwyg said:


> .... Joyce is a failure and should go now.




Agreed and so should the Chairman of the Board.



McLovin said:


> ........I'm sure Borghetti is giggling like a school girl over at Virgin!




Proving the incompetence of the Qantas Board and their choice of replacement for Dixon, Mr Borghetti has demonstrated how to build and run an airline providing a stark comparison to Mr Joyce's demonstration of how to destroy a successful airline while blaming everyone else.



Boggo said:


> And the newly renovated management building on Bourke Rd looks spectacular too and should make an enormous difference




They'll probably have to sell it soon, to cover Joyce's severance package.


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## Smurf1976 (6 March 2014)

McLovin said:


> Realistically, there is no way the government will let Qantas fail. Even with all the tough talk on ending entitlements etc, it would be far too unpopular to let what many consider to be an icon of Australia to fall into a heap.



I can't see it being allowed go fail completely for those reasons, but I can certainly see it withering away over a period of time. That is, a slow but sure loss of international market share (already pretty much happened) and then a gradual loss of domestic market share as well.

Whilst it's only a minor part of the market, I do see Qantas' pulling out of Tasmania as a significant event. The Australian "national" airline no longer flies under its' own name to every Australian state. I suspect that in due course this will come to be seen as a turning point amongst many others. 

Slowly but surely, they could well end up being nothing more than a transport service between mainland capital cities and that's it. Even amongst those routes, I do wonder how profitable Adelaide and Canberra are when compared to the Brisbane - Sydney - Melbourne routes? 

If Qantas keeps going the way it is, then slowly but surely I expect we'll see them flying to fewer destinations both international and domestic. At some point, they could well end up small enough that an outright collapse would cease to be a major national issue as such. With a domestic market share somewhere around 60% for Qantas mainline they are "too big to fail" but that changes if market share drops to 50, 40, 30, 20% over the coming years and Virgin ends up as the largest operator.


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## piggybank (16 March 2014)

An interesting take on recent events...

A Senate inquiry has been told a decision by Qantas to slash thousands of jobs is illogical and appears to have been financially and politically motivated.

http://www.sbs.com.au/news/article/..._content=643477&utm_campaign=Saturday&modapt=


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## ALOKNATH (20 March 2014)

Hi, Everyone sounds very bearish on this stock. 

But here are some of the positives -
- 2 billion of cost reduction coming out 
- reducing Capex and dropping unprofitable routes
- the new codeshare agreement with Bangkok airways
- Starting of new regional routes
- alliance with Emirate Airways
- last but not least 36% reduction in Joyce pay cut

Will this improve the next quarter results ?

Just wanted to know the future potential of this stock for next 3-6 months.
Is there going to be any upside on this stock?


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## Bill M (28 March 2014)

They are making changes to how you earn points in the air. It affects me as I only fly discount economy or economy so I end up earning much less points than before on the same leg of travel. They say it is a fairer program, I say it is the greater majority who fly economy who will earn less points and will have to wait much longer for that classic award fare. Getting the points use to sway me to fly Qantas previously, with these cuts I am better off flying with others now.

Full story at this link: http://www.qantas.com.au/fflyer/dyn/program/fairer-flying

And calculator here: https://www.qantas.com.au/fflyer/do/dyns/initialPointsEarned


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## McLovin (28 March 2014)

Bill M said:


> They are making changes to how you earn points in the air. It affects me as I only fly discount economy or economy so I end up earning much less points than before on the same leg of travel. They say it is a fairer program, I say it is the greater majority who fly economy who will earn less points and will have to wait much longer for that classic award fare. Getting the points use to sway me to fly Qantas previously, with these cuts I am better off flying with others now.
> 
> Full story at this link: http://www.qantas.com.au/fflyer/dyn/program/fairer-flying
> 
> And calculator here: https://www.qantas.com.au/fflyer/do/dyns/initialPointsEarned




I mentioned this upthread, but I switched to American Airlines AAdvantage years ago. Much, much better.


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## tinhat (28 March 2014)

This current management have done a good job at eroding the brand value.

For what it's worth, regarding mention of the newly renovated Bourke St office, I understand this building is leased from Cromwell Property Group (CMW) (which I hold in the SMSF). Qantas claim they are saving money due to the energy efficiency of the refurbishment.


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## DJG (28 March 2014)

tinhat said:


> For what it's worth, regarding mention of the newly renovated Bourke St office, I understand this building is leased from Cromwell Property Group (CMW) (which I hold in the SMSF). Qantas claim they are saving money due to the energy efficiency of the refurbishment.




And what are Cromwell claiming the advantage is for them? 
Love to know how long it is until this 'energy claim' is paid back. The company won't be around in 10 years at this rate in order to save energy.


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## tinhat (28 March 2014)

DJG said:


> And what are Cromwell claiming the advantage is for them?
> Love to know how long it is until this 'energy claim' is paid back. The company won't be around in 10 years at this rate in order to save energy.




For what it's worth, here is the spiel from Cromwell's marketing:



> Qantas Headquarters
> SECTOR Office
> LAND AREA 27,160 sqm
> LETTABLE AREA 46,546 sqm
> ...



http://www.cromwell.com.au/_uploads/documents/CMW_Corporate_Profile_Dec_2013.pdf


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## McLovin (2 June 2014)

Ken Cowley had an interesting view on Joyce in the Weekend AFR...



> “It’s important that Qantas remains successful and properly funded and again that’s people,” Cowley says. “Alan Joyce is a strange man. I’ve had one of his top people come to see me. It was scary. He’s worried where Qantas is going or not going.
> 
> “It’ll be interesting to see where Alan Joyce finishes up. I think he’s a misfit.”




And this corker about Lachlan Murdoch...


> “I like Lachlan,” Cowley says. “He’s a nice man but he’s not a great businessman. He’s not a big and good decision-maker in my opinion.”




I think he might be off the Christmas card list. I notice he's already denying he made those comments.


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## tom82 (16 June 2014)

What are peoples thoughts of QAN technically?
Double bottom, trading above 30EMA weekly.


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## McLovin (17 July 2014)

If I were a betting man, I'd say the reason for this policy change is that Qantas discovered that it's own Qantas Club members were switching to Emirates in economy and booking Emirates flight numbers. Which a few of us said earlier was bound to happen.



> Qantas Club members will no longer be able to use Qantas international business lounges when travelling in economy on an Emirates flight number as of October 1st, the airline revealed today.
> 
> The new rules will also keep Qantas Club members out of Emirates' airport lounges at Dubai unless their ticket carries a QF flight number.
> 
> While the move doesn't affect status-tiered members of the Qantas Frequent Flyer scheme, it will impact the many thousands of Australian business travellers who pay upwards of $400 a year to use the Qantas Club lounges in Australia and partner lounges overseas.




http://www.ausbt.com.au/qantas-tightens-lounge-access-rules-for-emirates-flights


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## wayneL (28 August 2014)

A headline loss of 2.8 billion
.. Some writedowns involved, but sheesh.

What is the future for Qantas?


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## skc (28 August 2014)

wayneL said:


> A headline loss of 2.8 billion
> .. Some writedowns involved, but sheesh.
> 
> What is the future for Qantas?




It's OK. H1 EBIT positive according to Joyce. Share up 8.3%.


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## McLovin (28 August 2014)

skc said:


> It's OK *for the next six months*. H1 EBIT positive according to Joyce. Share up 8.3%.




I fixed it for you.


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## wayneL (28 August 2014)

skc said:


> It's OK. H1 EBIT positive according to Joyce. Share up 8.3%.




Hmm haven't seen the numbers yet, but the analyst on Pravda was incandescent.


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## skc (28 August 2014)

McLovin said:


> I fixed it for you.




You just don't get it, do you. Would you look at those uniforms?!!

http://www.afr.com/p/lifestyle/afrmagazine/qantas_under_the_radar_designer_EzsReU3C62XOvWp6l2jQvM

Are you telling me that an airline with an awesome designer uniform would be in trouble?!!





To be honest... I have never seen any airhostess who look remotely like Miranda Kerr. So a bit of false advertising there.

P.S. Writedown is just one-off (i.e. once a year) and they are non-cash (ignoring the fact that real cash was spent to acquire those assets).


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## qldfrog (28 August 2014)

with uniform like that, I am back in the 80's with Space 1999/star treks uniforms coming straight to mind
So Qantas is the future


----------



## IFocus (28 August 2014)

Got to be the story of the millennia if Joyce and the board keep their jobs.


----------



## Julia (28 August 2014)

IFocus said:


> Got to be the story of the millennia if Joyce and the board keep their jobs.




You are so unkind, IF.  Didn't you hear the nice Mr Joyce explain that it's nothing at all to do with his competence, and all to do with external factors?
What a crock!


----------



## Smurf1976 (29 August 2014)

IFocus said:


> Got to be the story of the millennia if Joyce and the board keep their jobs.




Whilst it further fuels the public perception that CEO's and board members are drastically overpaid leeches on society. 

An epic failure, rewarded with an annual salary more than the average worker's lifetime earnings. Hmm.....


----------



## tech/a (29 August 2014)

Smurf1976 said:


> Whilst it further fuels the public perception that CEO's and board members are drastically overpaid leeches on society.
> 
> An epic failure, rewarded with an annual salary more than the average worker's lifetime earnings. Hmm.....




Smurf
Your response is typical
He is cleaning up a mess which has taken 10 yrs to create.
He's the henchman 
Un popular but the ONLY ONE capable of making and implementing
The decisions required to survive and re grow.

Earning his money in my view.

All those in his position are perceived similarly.
It's human nature and why few can command his remuneration.


----------



## McLovin (29 August 2014)

tech/a said:


> Smurf
> Your response is typical
> He is cleaning up a mess which has taken 10 yrs to create.






You're joking right?

He's been CEO since 2008.

Everything he has, more or less, been a negative for the company. The cherry on top is that ridiculous agreement with Emirates which has seen their traffic into/out of Australia grow by 18% while Qantas' traffic has grown by 2%.


----------



## prawn_86 (29 August 2014)

Yeh I am yet to see him take responsibility for anything. True leaders will accept at least part of the blame for a disastrous performance

Even in his latest interview he said that things are headed in the right direction, so long as anything beyond his control doesn't affect it. Talk about a verbal get out clause.


----------



## tech/a (29 August 2014)

prawn_86 said:


> Yeh I am yet to see him take responsibility for anything. True leaders will accept at least part of the blame for a disastrous performance
> 
> Even in his latest interview he said that things are headed in the right direction, so long as anything beyond his control doesn't affect it. Talk about a verbal get out clause.




Ok In the year 2009 price plummeted and that could be attributed to past management.
Then price has ranged approx. $1.50 to $3.00 ish.
Various softer decisions culminating in the decisions that HAD to be taken.
A lot of this is Write down of fleet value.

How can you control anything that is beyond your control??
Its not a get out clause its a fact of life.

So At $1.36 your not buying?

Ill go on record and say I would with a stop at $.99c
But would add at $1.42 and $1.52 and $1.92 at which time Id be chasing my stop to B/E (once$1.52 is reached)


----------



## McLovin (29 August 2014)

tech/a said:


> Ok In the year 2009 price plummeted and that could be attributed to past management.
> Then price has ranged approx. $1.50 to $3.00 ish.
> Various softer decisions culminating in the decisions that HAD to be taken.
> A lot of this is Write down of fleet value.




The decision to put endless streams of cash into the sinkhole that is Jetstar Asia. The decision to continue to pursue four engine wide bodies when all your competitors are switching to twin engine aircraft (granted some of this was beyond Qantas' control). The decision to run a costly and futile price and market share war against Virgin that ultimately has failed, and created an oversupply in the process. The decision to not invest in fleet upgrades that have meant Qantas runs an out of date product. The decision to ground the airline and leave thousands of passengers stranded and destroy what little brand loyalty you have left.

These are all decisions taken by the current management. Joyce came from Jetstar (and Ryan Air before that) and runs Qantas like it's a budget airline. The only thing not budget is Joyce's pay packet, which disgustingly is bigger than the pay packets of the CEO's of Singapore, Cathay and Air NZ combined. They have wasted their time on stupid soft things like new uniforms and those awful wine dispensing machines. Why does an airline that is making a loss at the operating level need to employ one of the most expensive models in the world to launch their new uniforms. It just smacks of a management that is completely out of touch living in the 1990's.


----------



## prawn_86 (29 August 2014)

tech/a said:


> How can you control anything that is beyond your control??
> Its not a get out clause its a fact of life.




He has not defined what is in his control as far as i am aware. At what point does he, the CEO and ultimate responsibility holder for the airline, take ownership of decisions and the losses that Qantas has incurred? If everything is beyond his control why are they paying him so much?

Can he honestly say that everything (or even most things) he has done has delivered share holder value and set the company up for the future? If not, then why is he getting paid so much?

Im not talking about buying at current levels, i would never buy an airline personally, but im just talking about bang for management dollar.


----------



## tech/a (29 August 2014)

What is out of ones control is limitless.

So buying?


----------



## prawn_86 (29 August 2014)

tech/a said:


> What is out of ones control is limitless.
> 
> So buying?




Im not discussing buying QAN, i am discussing Joyces management style.

If too much is out of his control, and what he can control isnt adding value, why is he employed?


----------



## barney (29 August 2014)

Posted this on Darkhorse's thread ...... puts the buying in perspective.  

The cumulative Short sales in a few days time might tell an interesting story.


----------



## tech/a (29 August 2014)

prawn_86 said:


> Im not discussing buying QAN, i am discussing Joyces management style.
> 
> If too much is out of his control, and what he can control isnt adding value, why is he employed?




To define those things in his control which can if implemented will over time add value to his company and in turn shareholders. Make the decisions necessary to implement those things he can control and cop the fall out.
Be the patsy. No one likes a CEO in hard times---buck stops at the top.

So now I'm talking about buying QAN
The decisions have been made and now being implemented.
Joyce is still at the helm.
Qantas is still flying.
Share price is rising---and if it keeps rising Id say he's pretty safe--regardless of how out of touch anyone believes he is.

If price falls then so will he---regardless of what he/you/I think.

Barney there will be buying to cover short positions as you point out.
Covering may well be only on recent shorts---a week will show if selling has dried up
provided of course factors beyond our control affect the market!


----------



## McLovin (29 August 2014)

prawn_86 said:


> Im not discussing buying QAN, i am discussing Joyces management style.
> 
> If too much is out of his control, and *what he can control isnt adding value, why is he employed?*




Ed Zachery.

Borghetti was all smiles this morning.


----------



## Julia (29 August 2014)

McLovin said:


> Borghetti was all smiles this morning.



Extract from "The World Today" interview with Mr Borghetti:


> PETER RYAN: But given what Qantas has been going through and the $2.8 billion loss announced yesterday, do you feel in any way that you dodged a bullet by missing out on the CEO job?
> 
> JOHN BORGHETTI: (Laughs) I'd love to answer that but I won't. Look, I think that Qantas is a great company. I mean it is.
> 
> It's a strong competitor, it has a great brand, you know, and all the rest of it and it has very good staff there. I'm very happy with my job. Having said that, I really do think that I've got the best aviation job in the country. I mean who wouldn't want my job?


----------



## Smurf1976 (29 August 2014)

tech/a said:


> Smurf
> Your response is typical
> He is cleaning up a mess which has taken 10 yrs to create.
> He's the henchman
> ...



As a general principle, you pay for something when it has been delivered or at least partly produced. You don't hand over all the money up front then hope that you'll eventually see something in return.

Joyce is being paid more than the CEO's of several other airlines combined and, whilst he may well be able to turn QAN around at some point, thus far he has not done so. There is cause to pay him a deposit certainly, but practical completion has not been achieved yet and there seems no reason to believe it to be imminent.

I have no problem with the concept of a CEO being paid a fortune if they actually do deliver what is promised. But thus far at least, Joyce hasn't actually delivered. Pay him well if/when he does, not before.


----------



## tech/a (2 September 2014)

tech/a said:


> Ok In the year 2009 price plummeted and that could be attributed to past management.
> Then price has ranged approx. $1.50 to $3.00 ish.
> Various softer decisions culminating in the decisions that HAD to be taken.
> A lot of this is Write down of fleet value.
> ...






AND---here we are.


----------



## nulla nulla (2 September 2014)

There is a cynical joke about running a successful small business. 

Q. How do you run a successful small business?
A. Start with a successful large business.

Joyce, who has previously had success with small businesses like Airlingus and Jetstar is now in the process of reducing Qantas from a successful large business to a struggling small business. In my opinion both he and the chairman of the board should both go.


----------



## tech/a (2 September 2014)

So let me get this right.

This thread is about canning the CEO 
Not about trading QAN

Time to leave.


----------



## burglar (2 September 2014)

tech/a said:


> So let me get this right.
> 
> This thread is about canning the CEO
> Not about trading QAN
> ...




Trading QAN requires a chart and 10,000 hours of education.

Investing in QAN requires a whole another thing. 
(probably without the assistance of a chart)!!


----------



## Smurf1976 (2 September 2014)

tech/a said:


> So let me get this right.
> 
> This thread is about canning the CEO
> Not about trading QAN




In the context of a longer term investment in QAN, the performance of the company is highly relevant. And so far as the performance of any company is concerned, the CEO is at least a factor in that especially when you have a high profile CEO making at times controversial decisions and the company is struggling.

Ask a hundred random people to name a CEO of an Australian company and I'm pretty sure that Joyce / Qantas would be right up there as the names mentioned. In contrast, few would have a clue who the CEO of CBA or BHP is or what they've done recently. That this thread has tended to focus on QAN management is a reflection of that reality.


----------



## piggybank (1 December 2014)

Since the last post on this thread (2nd September) QAN as been gaining altitude to a level of $2.01 (today) an increase of 33%. It did go even higher during the day ($2.135) but hit some turbulence and fell back safely.


----------



## piggybank (1 December 2014)

piggybank said:


> Since the last post on this thread (2nd September) QAN as been gaining altitude to a level of $2.01 (today) an increase of 33%. It did go even higher during the day ($2.135) but hit some turbulence and fell back safely.




Actually I just noticed that Air New Zealand has done even better recently - having closed today 40% higher which started in mid October.

And people say you can't make money in the share market by just buying airline stocks


----------



## piggybank (2 December 2014)

Anyone want to buy a piece of engineering equipment? Given that the manufacturing sector is contracting by the day, some of this stuff will be hard to purchase in the future. You will need to hurry as it closes later this afternoon at 16.45. 

http://www.graysonline.com/sale/501...25&mid=176885&em=davidclilly1958@yahoo.com.au


----------



## Julia (2 December 2014)

piggybank said:


> Actually I just noticed that Air New Zealand has done even better recently - having closed today 40% higher which started in mid October.
> 
> And people say you can't make money in the share market by just buying airline stocks




The airlines will be benefiting from the falling oil price.


----------



## piggybank (2 December 2014)

Julia said:


> The airlines will be benefiting from the falling oil price.




And when the price goes up presume one goes short?


----------



## piggybank (2 December 2014)

piggybank said:


> Actually I just noticed that Air New Zealand has done even better recently - having closed today 40% higher which started in mid October.




Today it was announced that Air New Zealand has been named the Airline of the Year 2015 in the Airline Excellence Awards for the second year running. In the awards determined by AirlineRatings.com, Air New Zealand was chosen for its in-flight innovations, financial performance, operational safety and staff motivation.

“Quite simply Air New Zealand is an airline of first choice. And given the airline’s location and the country’s size, its performance is even more remarkable” said AirlineRatings.com editor Geoffrey Thomas.

If you want to read the remainder of the article, then you can do so by clicking on the link below:-

https://au.totaltravel.yahoo.com/in...r-new-zealand-named-2015-airline-of-the-year/


----------



## piggybank (8 December 2014)

Market Update released today - here it is:- 

http://www.stocknessmonster.com/news-item?S=QAN&E=ASX&N=833571

The stock closed up just over 13% - $2.39


----------



## johnpendles (8 December 2014)

its great that the oil price has tanked, but doesn't Qantas still face the same problems it did before? The oil price is lower for everyone. Qantas still faces significant competitive pressures.


----------



## skc (8 December 2014)

johnpendles said:


> its great that the oil price has tanked, but doesn't Qantas still face the same problems it did before? The oil price is lower for everyone. Qantas still faces significant competitive pressures.




Oil price is lower but it wasn't that big a deal. According to the annoucement it's only $30m or so. The turnaround in profit was $550m.

The biggest problem faced by QAN was the capacity war started by QAN, now ended by QAN.


----------



## tech/a (9 December 2014)

tech/a said:


> Ok In the year 2009 price plummeted and that could be attributed to past management.
> Then price has ranged approx. $1.50 to $3.00 ish.
> Various softer decisions culminating in the decisions that HAD to be taken.
> A lot of this is Write down of fleet value.
> ...




So three adds and a stop at B/E.
seems an OK trade to me?
Don't see anyone else who thinks this was a bargain---and I'm a techi
Id have thought you'd have been all over this (Fundies) Massive write downs--probably wont pay tax for years!


----------



## skc (9 December 2014)

tech/a said:


> So At $1.36 your not buying?
> 
> Ill go on record and say I would with a stop at $.99c
> But would add at $1.42 and $1.52 and $1.92 at which time Id be chasing my stop to B/E (once$1.52 is reached)






tech/a said:


> So three adds and a stop at B/E.
> seems an OK trade to me?
> Don't see anyone else who thinks this was a bargain---and I'm a techi
> Id have thought you'd have been all over this (Fundies) Massive write downs--probably wont pay tax for years!




Your post dated 29 Aug, before market open. Open price that day was $1.405. So according to your plan, here's how it worked out.

29 Aug - buy on open @ $1.405, stop @ 99c. Assume 2% risk => 482 shares for a $100k account.
29 Aug - add @ $1.42. Stop unknown. Assume same size => 482 shares
2 Sept - add @ $1.52. Stop moved to breakeven @ $1.405. Assume 2% risk with stop at $1.405. => 1739 shares.
29 Sept - stop hit @ $1.405.

So in total, the trade bought 482 @ $1.405 + 482 @ $1.42 + 1739 @ $1.52. Total 2703 shares @ $1.482

Trade P&L = -$207 less commission.

Feel free to adjust the volumes and you can arrive at different loss amounts.


----------



## tech/a (9 December 2014)

First trade is moved to B/E 
Each trade is traded as an individual trade.
Ist trade only taken out at B/E
Other 2 trades still open.


----------



## skc (9 December 2014)

tech/a said:


> First trade is moved to B/E
> Each trade is traded as an individual trade.
> Ist trade only taken out at B/E
> Other 2 trades still open.




Lol. Sure if you say so.



tech/a said:


> Ill go on record and say I would with a stop at $.99c
> But would add at $1.42 and $1.52 and $1.92 at which time Id be chasing my stop to B/E (once$1.52 is reached)




And even if you take the 2 other trades as separate trades... where were their stops?


----------



## tech/a (9 December 2014)

skc said:


> Lol. Sure if you say so.
> 
> 
> 
> And even if you take the 2 other trades as separate trades... where were their stops?




This will alter as the trades progress but here is where it would be right now.


----------



## skc (9 December 2014)

tech/a said:


> This will alter as the trades progress but here is where it would be right now.
> 
> View attachment 60656




What do you mean by stop 2 and stop 3? I am interested to know your _initial _stops for the 2nd and 3rd entry. Do you mean stop 2 is the _initial _stop for entry #2 and stop 3 the _initial _stop for entry #3?


----------



## tech/a (11 December 2014)

Yes 
Each trade is triggered by different signals so are all treated as individual trades.

Exit isn't generally staggered.
All are exited at the one time if left open.

If you think about it
Often a technical entry won't be perfect ( as a lot of other types of entry)
New trades after an initial failed trade are ---- or should be normal ---- after
Placing a chart back on your watch list 

I close trades and open others minutes apart when trading the DAX 
Some in the complete opposite direction to the last trade.


----------



## skc (11 December 2014)

Re-posting how you said you'd trade.



skc said:


> Your post dated 29 Aug, before market open. Open price that day was $1.405. So according to your plan, here's how it worked out.
> 
> 29 Aug - buy on open @ $1.405, stop @ 99c. Assume 2% risk => 482 shares for a $100k account.
> 29 Aug - add @ $1.42. Stop unknown. Assume same size => 482 shares
> ...




The 2nd and 3rd entry were taken well before the B/E stop was hit. According to you, all 3 entries should have been exited at the same time.



tech/a said:


> Exit isn't generally staggered.
> All are exited at the one time if left open.






tech/a said:


> If you think about it
> Often a technical entry won't be perfect ( as a lot of other types of entry)
> New trades after an initial failed trade are ---- or should be normal ---- after
> Placing a chart back on your watch list




Yes. If you take the 2nd and 3rd entries AFTER the inital B/E stop. But the sequence of events suggested that all 3 entries were exited at the same time.



tech/a said:


> This will alter as the trades progress but here is where it would be right now.
> 
> View attachment 60656




Again... entry 3 was made on 2 Sept... you marked the chart suggesting that Stop 3 (the initial stop for the 3rd entry) was placed under the low on 14 Oct. Clearly this was marked as hindsight. It would be a reasonable place for a stop if the 3rd entry was made on the breakout on 28 Oct. But the entry was made a good 8 weeks before that.

I guess what I am trying to say is... your 3 entries got taken out at your inital breakeven stop, according to your original post and the price chart. So you can't really use hindsight to boast how well the trade went.


----------



## tech/a (11 December 2014)

I'll post the chart up showing each individual trade as they came up.
I know you'd love to have some ammo with regard to break even stops
But sorry. It works.
I'll knock it up after tea.


----------



## tech/a (11 December 2014)

As promised


----------



## skc (11 December 2014)

tech/a said:


> So At $1.36 your not buying?
> 
> Ill go on record and say I would with a stop at $.99c
> But would add at $1.42 and *$1.52* and $1.92 at which time Id be chasing my stop to B/E (once$1.52 is reached)






tech/a said:


> As promised
> 
> View attachment 60679




Nope. Your 3rd entry was 2 sept at $1.52. You couldn't possibly have put a stop at where you indicated as stop 3 because that low wasn't established until 28 Oct.

$1.92 would be your 4th entry. I did not include it as you may or may not have taken it with the first 3 entries taken out.

And seriously... you are saying you took an entry @ $1.92 with a stop at $1.25. What's that, a 35% (67c) wide stop? Come on... so what's your target? At 4:1 reward to risk, you are looking for $4.60?!

Just admit it, based on what you've posted 29 Aug, the trade did not work out. These things happen all the time and it's not a slant against B/E stops or your trading ability. It's just wrong to come back and quote that and call it a winning trade - when clearly it was not.

I won't derail the QAN thread any further by discussing this trade. There's enough there for people to decide for themselves.


----------



## tech/a (11 December 2014)

It's the. 1.42 trade the 1.52 trade and the 1.92. Trade
I'll re do the charts including the very first trade
Then each trade on each chart each separately 
So there can be absolutely no confusion
Like you I'm not letting go of this because your
Sole goal is to discredit anything I write up.
After this one perhaps you'll like to discredit the WOW analysis
And then the trade in the continuation breakout thread.
QAN has one b/e trade and nothing more 
I have not included the first trade.
So I'll do as I say and post each trade on single charts

Ah I see
Your saying the 1.40 trade ( which is one you say i took when i used the terminology ---ill go on record----my first tradecwas $1.42 thats why the labelling doesnt make sense but----)and the 1.42 trade were stopped out.
Yep your right.I'll agree but thats not what I meant ---- a trade 2 c apart really makes sense!
The $1.52 and the $1.92 are still open with the trailing stop in place.

Happy to post the charts.



But sleep first I'll do it in the morning.


----------



## skc (11 December 2014)

tech/a said:


> It's the. 1.42 trade the 1.52 trade and the 1.92. Trade
> I'll re do the charts including the very first trade
> Then each trade on each chart each separately
> So there can be absolutely no confusion
> ...




I am not trying to discredit you. You are doing that yourself.



tech/a said:


> Ah I see
> Your saying the 1.40 trade ( which is one you say i took when i used the terminology ---ill go on record----my first tradecwas $1.42 thats why the labelling doesnt make sense but----)and the 1.42 trade were stopped out.
> Yep your right.I'll agree but thats not what I meant ---- a trade 2 c apart really makes sense!
> The $1.52 and the $1.92 are still open with the trailing stop in place.




Right... so your "on record" is actually not a record... and the word 'add' doesn't mean you already have a position. Who's doing the discrediting?



tech/a said:


> So At $1.36 your not buying?
> 
> Ill go on record and say I would with a stop at $.99c
> 
> But would *add *at $1.42 and $1.52 and $1.92 at which time Id be chasing my stop to B/E (once$1.52 is reached)


----------



## Ves (11 December 2014)

When you say you "_would_" do something (while the market is closed) and not you "did" or "have" (at the time),  and proceed to use unclear wording that could be taken in a number of different ways, then disappear for three and a half months and don't provide any further confirmation of entries #2, #3, #4 in real time,  only to return when the trade is a massive winner and claim it as real (whilst having a go at other investing methods),   and additionally, you as a poster have a history of demanding credibility,  transparency and are highly critical of other's methods,  are you really surprised that someone is calling you out on  this bull****?

In a word: Seriously.


----------



## tech/a (11 December 2014)

I was always going to buy the breakout at $1.42 BUT TO MAKE YOU HAPPY Ill show your First one.

Here are the trades.
2 X B/E and 2 Open
The 2 open trades have never been stopped.








What the hell are you guys going on about
At no time have I said it was a trade I have taken---I trade the DAX.
I placed up what *I WOULD DO!*

Whats wrong with that???
And this is how it *WOULD HAVE* Played out!

*Yeh SERIOUSLY*


----------



## tech/a (12 December 2014)

Ves said:


> When you say you "_would_" do something (while the market is closed) and not you "did" or "have" (at the time),  and proceed to use unclear wording that could be taken in a number of different ways, then disappear for three and a half months and don't provide any further confirmation of entries #2, #3, #4 in real time,  only to return when the trade is a massive winner and claim it as real (whilst having a go at other investing methods),   and additionally, you as a poster have a history of demanding credibility,  transparency and are highly critical of other's methods,  are you really surprised that someone is calling you out on  this bull****?
> 
> In a word: Seriously.




*Happy you two?*

I was and am putting up an example.
Something totally different to 90% of what people do---on this site.
It worked out.
Most do.
Some don't.

At least I put something up.


----------



## Ves (12 December 2014)

tech/a said:


> *Happy you two?*



I'm always happy... to play along.  I've got nothing against the work you do,  but if you are going to enforce strict "credibility" standards upon others in multiple threads,   then I think it's only fair that others do the same to you.

If you'd much prefer that others did not do this to you,  then I can only suggest starting a blog and disabling the comments section.

Carry on.


----------



## tech/a (12 December 2014)

Ves said:


> I'm always happy... to play along.  I've got nothing against the work you do,  but if you are going to enforce strict "credibility" standards upon others in multiple threads,   then I think it's only fair that others do the same to you.
> 
> If you'd much prefer that others did not do this to you,  then I can only suggest starting a blog and disabling the comments section.
> 
> Carry on.




I expect no less and more than happy to comply.
Should be more of it---too much theory and not enough practical application to stuff posted up.


----------



## PinguPingu (9 January 2015)

Hey tech, can you explain the past few days price action? 

There's been another big break out on high volume and now pullbacks on lower volume but on days where the ASX has been up higher. Is this more supply being absorbed or just no more demand to go higher?


----------



## Atari rose (9 January 2015)

I enjoy robust debate, this is what makes forums readable. Keep up the good work both parties.


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## tech/a (9 January 2015)

PinguPingu said:


> Hey tech, can you explain the past few days price action?
> 
> There's been another big break out on high volume and now pullbacks on lower volume but on days where the ASX has been up higher. Is this more supply being absorbed or just no more demand to go higher?




Sorry just saw your post.

Chart below.

*Click to Expand*





*To explain a little further*.
While supply is drying up there isn't a demand to force new highs.
Whats happening is holders are simply holding not searching for lower
prices to sell out.

The thrusts up are buyers who are happy to search higher to get a fill
then hold.
So thrust then pause thrust then pause is common in an up move.

There is no evidence of sellers looking specifically to off load---lack of volume and in particular range down.(Searching for a buyer) but plenty of buyers searching for a seller.(Up thrusts with supply coming in to meet demand).


----------



## PZ99 (6 November 2015)

*bump*

Any idea what's happened to this stock? It shows up as unknown security on the table and google hasn't got it listed for the last few days.

I know Joyce has sold heaps of shares to pay his tax bill can't find any other info.


----------



## Boggo (6 November 2015)

PZ99 said:


> *bump*
> 
> Any idea what's happened to this stock? It shows up as unknown security on the table and google hasn't got it listed for the last few days.
> 
> I know Joyce has sold heaps of shares to pay his tax bill can't find any other info.




Capital return and consolidation, now trading as QANDA


----------



## PZ99 (6 November 2015)

Thanks for that


----------



## tinhat (6 November 2015)

Boggo said:


> Capital return and consolidation, now trading as QANDA




I'll take that as a comment.


----------



## McLovin (6 November 2015)

tinhat said:


> I'll take that as a comment.




Zing!


----------



## notting (6 November 2015)

Boggo said:


> Capital return and consolidation, now trading as QANDA




Apparently the staff turned into a pack of half witted gibbering monkeys as soon as the ticker changed to qanda and are extremely frustrating to watch.


----------



## luvbhatnagar (10 November 2015)

With the name changes (and consequent code change back to QAN) wonder how many punters have clicked on to the fact that their number of units have decreased by 7% (ie 93% of original holdings) while the share price has been on a steady slide down ....


----------



## Evwardo (26 February 2016)

*Qantas*

Hello,

I have approximately $5000 worth of Qantas shares and I am contemplating selling them. Could someone please explain to me how the announced buyback may effect me? Should i sell now, wait for the buyback or hang on to them for a while longer.
Cheers


----------



## notting (18 April 2016)

Well guess that's the end of the uptrend.
Don't ya hate it when you don't even get even half a day to get set!



> cutting back planned flights on domestic routes in response to reduced demand from Australians worried about the economy and the upcoming election.




How we worry :dunno::dunno::dunno:

Yeah that's it for me.  No more interstate travel, there's an election on and I'm worried about the economy.


----------



## Porper (18 April 2016)

Some on here may recognize this chart from elsewhere.

Rising wedge also known as an Ending Diagonal triangle with bearish divergence isn't a good recipe. Target - origin of the pattern as a minimum.


----------



## skc (18 April 2016)

notting said:


> Well guess that's the end of the uptrend.
> Don't ya hate it when you don't even get even half a day to get set!
> 
> 
> ...




I wonder if the election affecting travel is actually a real observed phenomenon (or a lame excuse).

The fact that QAN decided to hide the capacity reduction information in the back of a seemingly regular and innocent monthly statistics announcement... naughty naughty :nono:

If I was only smart enough to short FLT and CVO at the open. :bad:


----------



## VSntchr (18 April 2016)

skc said:


> I wonder if the election affecting travel is actually a real observed phenomenon (or a lame excuse).



My thinking would be that any downturn in travel as a result of the election would be majority corporate. I'm not observing anyone I know delaying their holiday... 
If this was the case then no-one would ever go anywhere in Australia at the rate we have elections 


skc said:


> The fact that QAN decided to hide the capacity reduction information in the back of a seemingly regular and innocent monthly statistics announcement... naughty naughty :nono:



They hid it well enough for me to miss it!


skc said:


> If I was only smart enough to short FLT and CVO at the open. :bad:



I probably would have shorted CTD and yelled at it for not co-operating like FLT and CVO did all day!


----------



## Junior (19 April 2016)

Morgan Stanley aren't fazed.  Target price lowered from $5.40 to $5.15.



> QAN's first downgrade in 2 years ends the momentum trade:
> 
> Following Mar-16 traffic, 3Q16 RASK looks like it declined at least 4%, a sharp drop from 2% growth achieved in 1H16. 2H16 capacity guidance has been revised lower in Domestic and International. Extrapolating this forward, we lower FY16 revenue forecasts by 1.6%, resulting in a -10% PBT impact, offset mildly by fuel changes (we were previously at 'worst case' FY16 guidance). At the revenue line, positive near-term revisions appear to be over, signaling the end of the QAN momentum trade, with the stock down ~11% as a result.
> 
> ...


----------



## notting (19 April 2016)

VSntchr said:


> I probably would have shorted CTD and yelled at it for not co-operating like FLT and CVO did all day!




If only i was smart enough to do that yesterday!  
Still just hanging on to its collapsed staircase up Chanel.
I already had a little one on VAH, tiny bit of consultation.


----------



## GPO (19 May 2016)

Junior said:


> Morgan Stanley aren't fazed.  Target price lowered from $5.40 to $5.15.




What keeps surprising me is the substantial difference between the target price and current stock price ($5.15-$3.26)/$3.26=58%. There aren't many decent cap companies out there matching this, are there? All of you with much long experience in trading/investing - why is that? Why aren't people jumping on it?


----------



## Wysiwyg (19 May 2016)

GPO said:


> Why aren't people jumping on it?



I ask that question myself all the time.  The rising oil price, which equates to higher aviation fuel costs, broke the up trend. I don't believe price target guesses.


----------



## GPO (19 May 2016)

Wysiwyg said:


> I ask that question myself all the time.  The rising oil price, which equates to higher aviation fuel costs, broke the up trend. I don't believe price target guesses.




I would assume they're not just guesses and all the smart estimators would've taken the oil price outlook into account in one way or another (which seems to fluctuate around the current price for the next year or so)


----------



## Wysiwyg (19 May 2016)

GPO said:


> I would assume they're not just guesses and all the smart estimators would've taken the oil price outlook into account in one way or another (which seems to fluctuate around the current price for the next year or so)



Nuh. They simply adjust the guess price down (or up) as the present realities unfold.


----------



## Wysiwyg (19 May 2016)

Interesting relationship between the ASX Energy Sector (XEJ)and QAN. The break of XEJ trend in October 2014 really attracted buyers to QAN and from that week we can see any correlation break down completely.


----------



## rb250660 (29 June 2017)

Hasn't this taken off since breaking thru' 4.200. Nice little push today too.

I hold from 4.860 on 22/05/2017


----------



## notting (25 August 2017)

Double top, with a pop.
The entire markets are due for correction and things like JHX, CSL TLS, BSL, WHC, have already appeared to look exhausted and some have turned already.  These being some who led up the market after the GFC with extremely strong trends.
QAN is another.
Report today was mediocre despite Alan Joyce screaming at the top of his voice that it's the second biggest profit ever for QAN to drown out the less stella last few months.
He's done a magnificent job.  But again one must wonder if the buy back is truly valuable and not just another glamorous spring board for Alan to leap off!!!
My interpretation of today's action thus far was fundamental selling followed by naive buying then short covering.  
Looking for a turn!!


----------



## systematic (25 August 2017)

notting said:


> Looking for a turn!!




Hope not, I've only been in less than a month!


----------



## tech/a (25 August 2017)

systematic said:


> Hope not, I've only been in less than a month!




Think your safe


----------



## notting (25 August 2017)

Think not.
look for the turn, then press the landing gear button!!


----------



## notting (28 August 2017)

The very next day -


> *Qantas shares are taking a pounding today, off 5.2 per cent at $5.71.*
> 
> JPMorgan analysts cut the stock to underperform from neutral saying that they estimate the airline will need domestic fares to rise 10 per cent in perpetuity to justify the current share price which they said "seems optimistic to us"
> 
> "Segmentally, Qantas Domestic was a highlight," the analysts wrote. They added "the biggest disappointment for investors was likely the 36.1 per cent decline in earnings from Qantas International."


----------



## notting (19 September 2017)

Showed a fair bit of momentum strength whilst Fat Boy was tossing missile into the sea, whilst the rest of the market got a little jittery.  People in general tend to not want to fly amidst missile and war threats.
So not really a lot backing the short from a trading perspective.  I took profits when seeing that.
Fundamentally, however, despite their great hedge book against oil price rises, it's still very toppy.


----------



## rb250660 (19 September 2017)

I still hold but would say I'll get the signal soon to dump it if this sideways movement continues. I'm up about a buck a share plus the dividend; so far so good.


----------



## notting (13 December 2017)

Testing it's 200 day moving average.
Seems to be inverting on the price of oil.


----------



## Darc Knight (26 December 2018)

Bit of a buy recommendation from one of the Site sponsors Motley Fool:

_"Recent data out of Australia’s Bureau of Infrastructure, Transport and Regional Economics revealed that there have been strong airfare rises across most routes and class types in December. In fact, December 2018 posted the highest ‘cheapest available’ average airfares since all the way back in January 2010. I think the combination of this, lower oil prices, and Qantas’ fuel hedging policy, has put Australia’s flag carrier airline in a great position to deliver another bumper profit this year."_

https://www.fool.com.au/2018/12/26/where-i-would-invest-25000-in-asx-200-shares-in-january/


----------



## galumay (26 December 2018)

Its typical click bait from MF, but then I wouldn't consider investing in any of those 3 businesses. 
(I must admit I wrote for MF for a while a couple of years ago, until my conscience got the better of me!)


----------



## JTLP (26 December 2018)

galumay said:


> Its typical click bait from MF, but then I wouldn't consider investing in any of those 3 businesses.
> (I must admit I wrote for MF for a while a couple of years ago, until my conscience got the better of me!)




Did you make decent coin as a contributor?


----------



## Darc Knight (27 December 2018)

galumay said:


> Its typical click bait from MF, but then I wouldn't consider investing in any of those 3 businesses.
> (I must admit I wrote for MF for a while a couple of years ago, until my conscience got the better of me!)




Well you were wrong about WSI being a shelf company with no fundamentals. You were wrong about that PM you sent me. You were wrong in my thread about comparing gains. Let's see if you're wrong a fourth time.

QAN: $5.65 atm.


----------



## Porper (27 December 2018)

galumay said:


> Its typical click bait from MF, but then I wouldn't consider investing in any of those 3 businesses.
> (I must admit I wrote for MF for a while a couple of years ago, until my conscience got the better of me!)




You must be qualified to give General Advice then?


----------



## Orix2020 (25 November 2019)

*With Jetstar pilots voting shortly on whether to initiate industrial action anyone else see short term downside pressure on QAN share price?*


----------



## PZ99 (25 November 2019)

Nope. Not for a 24hr strike. Fly QAN instead. Easy.


----------



## bigdog (29 November 2019)

https://karryon.com.au/industry-new...s-about-to-buy-some-or-all-of-luxury-escapes/

An article in the Australian Financial Review (AFR) ‘Street talk’ column suggests that Qantas Airways is considering a bid for disruptors Luxury Escapes as part of a wider push to diversify its group’s earnings.

The story goes on to say that it is understood “Qantas has tapped investment bank Citi for help with due diligence and financing considerations and is working towards putting an offer to Luxury Escapes’ owners.”

With more than 3 million subscribers globally on its database, the move would no doubt tie in with the Qantas Group’ wider airlines and loyalty businesses to become a win-win for selling through the line travel for Qantas and Jetstar.

Many of Luxury Escapes customers would likely already be Qantas Loyalty customers with both companies already having a partnership via Qantas’ Frequent Flyer program.

The AFR story stated that at this stage it is “not known whether the owners have put a full or partial stake in the business on the block – although there are known to be a handful of parties engaged in the process.”

Other apparent parties interested in Luxury Escapes are believed to include local and international players who are keen to get a foothold into the fast-growing south-east Asian travel segment.

Some other points to throw into the mix is Qantas’ impending taking back of the Qantas Holidays brand from Helloworld.

It’s expected that Luxury Escapes’ turnover will hit around $500 million in the 2020 financial year and its earnings have been growing at 50 per cent annually.

The company now has offices in Sydney, Melbourne, Bangalore, Singapore and San Francisco.

The AFR article went on to say that they anticipate a deal to be finalised “before beach season hits top gear,” though Qantas has declined to comment at this stage.
------------------------------------------------

bought Qantas yesterday

Qantas would love for Virgin and Tiger airways to reduce number of scheduled flights for a big boost in Qantas earnings next year!!

212


----------



## sptrawler (13 February 2020)

It sounds like Allan Joyce, is taking a leaf out of Bob Hawke's book lol.

https://www.theage.com.au/business/...3-p540ns.html?js-chunk-not-found-refresh=true


----------



## Trav. (20 February 2020)

I see Qantas up 7% early today.....on news etc.

I am not sure why sentiment is so bullish so placed a short trade on this and will see how I go.


----------



## barney (20 February 2020)

Trav. said:


> I am not sure why sentiment is so bullish so placed a short trade on this and will see how I go.




Qantas announced an off market buy back today so Punters can offer their shares to the Co for Market Value minus 14% ….

The record date is not till the 11th May however …. 

Not sure what bearing that could have on the SP movement in the mean time. Lots of possible scenarios.


----------



## Trav. (20 February 2020)

Well didn't get as much as I thought but $91 bucks is better than nothing

Trade Details


----------



## frugal.rock (20 February 2020)

Have noticed that most Qantas staff seem to be of a more mature age.
Which seems to work well generally... exception is a few of the hostess's on the actual flights.
When a hostesses butt is that big that they can't walk down the aisle without knocking passengers shoulders, spilling drinks in people's hands, things have to change...

Would you like a towel Sir?
No, but do you have a contact number for lost hippo's?...


----------



## barney (20 February 2020)

Trav. said:


> Well didn't get as much as I thought but $91 bucks is better than nothing




Any profit is better than the alternative Trav so well done I say!


----------



## barney (20 February 2020)

frugal.rock said:


> No, but do you have a contact number for lost hippo's?...




Lol … You may need some educating from the great 'Ogden Nash' FR
_
"Behold the hippopotamus!  We laugh at how he looks to us,
And yet in moments dank and grim, I wonder how we look to him."
- _Ogden Nash


----------



## Dona Ferentes (20 February 2020)

and gee, some impact from da lurgi

(and just bought tix with Virgin because in the near term Jetstar doesn't seem to provide certainty with industrial action looming)


> Qantas will slash flights across Asia as the coronavirus crisis continues to damage airlines around the world. The airline said reduced travel due to the outbreak is expected to carve between $100 million and $150 million out of its earnings this year, although Qantas added that the impact will be softened by lower fuel prices, which are also being caused by the economic disruption from the virus. The airline will reduce its overall group capacity to Asia by 15 per cent until at least the end of May, with Qantas International capacity to be cut by 16 per cent, and Jetstar seats to the region be reduced by 14 per cent. Flights between Sydney and Shanghai will remain suspended and that the lucrative route to Hong Kong from Sydney will be halved from 14 flights a week to seven.





> "Cononavirus resulted in the suspension of flights to mainland China and we're now seeing some secondary impacts and weaker demand on Hong Kong, Singapore and to a lesser extent Japan," Qantas chief executive Alan Joyce said. Qantas flights from Melbourne and Brisbane will also be reduced, as will Jetstar flights to Japan and Thailand, and intra-Asia flights. Qantas and Jetstar flights between Australian and New Zealand will be reduced by around 5 per cent, while the group's domestic capacity will be reduced by 2.3 per cent in the second half of the year "to better match demand".





> *Staff asked to take leave amid flight cuts*
> 
> "We have 30,000 employees across the group," Qantas chief executive Alan Joyce said. "The way we'll manage it is to ask across the 30,000 people, for people to take annual leave, long-service leave and use their leave balances, which are quite considerable."
> 
> Mr Joyce said asking employees to take paid leave would allow the airline to manage the staffing situation for at least six months. "What's important is that we have flexibility in how we respond to coronavirus and how we maintain our strategic position more broadly," Mr Joyce said.


----------



## Clansman (21 February 2020)

frugal.rock said:


> Have noticed that most Qantas staff seem to be of a more mature age.
> Which seems to work well generally... exception is a few of the hostess's on the actual flights.
> When a hostesses butt is that big that they can't walk down the aisle without knocking passengers shoulders, spilling drinks in people's hands, things have to change...
> 
> ...




That's always been the bugbear about Qantas. The aging fleet... and we aren't talking about the planes.
If they ever sort out their business model and adopt the Emirates model it could really run,  but it is essentially a heavily unionized over pampered workforce. A bit like an old eastern bloc communist country that needs a good solid 2-3 generations of early onset diabetes across it's population en masse to address attitude change. When a person flies Qantas, you almost feel left out if you don't get barked at or don't get something spilled on you.  Travelers could well be asking for toilet paper next.


----------



## Trav. (22 February 2020)

Trav. said:


> I am not sure why sentiment is so bullish so placed a short trade on this and will see how I go.



Down 2.4% on Friday. Should have held on for another day but still learning......happy to have picked up trade signal but still need to work on execution as usual.


----------



## barney (22 February 2020)

Trav. said:


> ....happy to have picked up trade signal but still need to work on execution as usual.




Lots of positives to take from the exercise Trav .… 

Certainly a lot better than when I traded FMG Short about 10 years ago thinking it was over valued lol (The bad old days!)


----------



## sptrawler (22 February 2020)

From experience, QAN is basically the Australian big Bank of the airlines in Australia, picked them up a few years ago at 96c, also picked up Air NZ in the mid to high 20c.
Most first World Countries need an airline of last resort, the Government didn't ask Tiger air to go into China, to collect Australians from the corona virus area.


----------



## frugal.rock (23 February 2020)

The government owned Qantas for around 50 years...and didn't sell until they had knocked a lot of the competition out... went private again around 1995.
Qantas would do well to remember that.
F.Rock


----------



## rederob (4 March 2020)

International airlines will be amongst the biggest losers as COVID-19 begins to bite.
Although QAN's recent report was positive, those benefits are likely to pale into insignificance over the next month or two.  QAN's international routes need full planes to be profitable, and right now they are cutting back routes and, soon, I image the number of services on those still left.





Support is at $4.70.
I expect that to fail badly.
This is a market where irrational fear prevails so expect outcomes worse than you expected (what?).
On the flipside, if State tourism campaigns work then internal travel might benefit.
However, given the flight to toilet paper I suspect many here regard a few hours locked in a cube recycling germs is not the way to go.


----------



## rederob (6 March 2020)

rederob said:


> Support is at $4.70.
> I expect that to fail badly.



Closed at $4.66 today.
Another dollar dip will not be too hard to achieve as nobody is keen to fly at the moment.
I might just be one of the travellers happy to pick it up *AFTER *it has safely landed.


----------



## Garpal Gumnut (10 March 2020)

Some people were catching knives by buying QAN today.

The BBC is tipping Korea Air be "fighting for survival".

https://www.bbc.com/news/business-51799142

Avoid QAN is my feeling.

gg


----------



## Dona Ferentes (10 March 2020)

Garpal Gumnut said:


> Avoid QAN is my feeling.
> 
> gg



 More practically, for most people......

Yield Management is a bitch, the algo is too clever.
 - Pay far in advance => cheap but still flying? (when you want)(if at all?)
 - Delay to closer to the date. B expensive.

Workforce is in for a rough trot


----------



## Garpal Gumnut (10 March 2020)

Europe begins to isolate.

gg

From The Guardian

1h ago21:33

All air traffic to *Denmark* from areas severely hit by coronavirus, will cease later on today, the prime minister, Mette Frederiksen, has said.

“Effective from later today, all air traffic to Denmark from red areas will be suspended,” she said, referring to areas hard hit by the coronavirus such as northern Italy, Iran and South Korea.


----------



## Garpal Gumnut (14 March 2020)

From @rederob on another thread.

""QAN off my radar for the next month unless there's a miracle.- I have it down as value at $2.00 but expect it now to dip nearer to $1.50. Best thing about QAN is that next year it will offer great fares as it has the best hedgers of aviation fuel in the world, by a long margin. I expect calendar 2021 will deliver excellent returns for QAN.""


A good post@rederob.

May I ask you or other members of ASF to expand on QAN hedging of aviation fuel particularly in relation to the fall in the price of oil over the last four quarters. 

Either here or in the QAN thread. 






gg

"I refuse to join any club that would have me as a member." Quote Groucho Marx
Je suis Charlie


----------



## rederob (14 March 2020)

Garpal Gumnut said:


> From @rederob on another thread.
> 
> ""QAN off my radar for the next month unless there's a miracle.- I have it down as value at $2.00 but expect it now to dip nearer to $1.50. Best thing about QAN is that next year it will offer great fares as it has the best hedgers of aviation fuel in the world, by a long margin. I expect calendar 2021 will deliver excellent returns for QAN.""
> 
> ...



Last year QAN hedged all FY 2020 jet fuel costs, allowing them price certainty.  This will be impaired by the COVID-19 flight cancellations.
But to show the advantage of good hedges, in FY 2019 their jet fuel costs increased to $614 million or by 19 per cent, while market AUD jet fuel prices increased on average ~28 per cent compared to prior year.
I suspect that QAN will now be locking in 2021 fuel costs to the maximum extent possible.
If you google what QAN has done over other years wrt to fuel hedging there's lots of info and shows they do it well.


----------



## Garpal Gumnut (14 March 2020)

Thanks @rederob. 

QAN may be worth a look. I'll draw my lines on the charts this evening.

Joyce is Applied Maths, Technology and Science of Management trained so I'd expect him to run a fairly dispassionate numbers response to Covid-19.

This is the approach needed to ensure the survival of a company.

gg


----------



## Dona Ferentes (15 March 2020)

Am thinking of liquidating my Qantas points (inFrequent Flyer) and turning them into wine.

I know the rational / optimal action is to utilise for future flights, but
- am unlikely to fly soon
- if I do travel, some bargains may be thrown up; cheap tix with any number of airlines
- QAN likely to devalue the FF points even more, as the balance sheet gets pressured
- wine is delivered to my door


----------



## Garpal Gumnut (15 March 2020)

Dona Ferentes said:


> Am thinking of liquidating my Qantas points (inFrequent Flyer) and turning them into wine.
> 
> I know the rational / optimal action is to utilise for future flights, but
> - am unlikely to fly soon
> ...



Good thinking.

Or turn them into TWE.

gg


----------



## Garpal Gumnut (17 March 2020)

Quite a distressing article on Qantas tax liabilities, Alan Joyce and their balance sheet from Michael West News. 

https://www.michaelwest.com.au/too-big-to-fail-qantas-the-corporate-elite-and-the-coronavirus/

gg


----------



## Padowan (19 March 2020)

I’ve never had much success catching a falling knife. Before CV19 Qantas was performing well and is well run company. Given the brand and national importance I’ve heard commentary that the government would bail qantas out if required. If this were all true it would surely make QAN one of the best leverage plays to a recovery in the global travel industry ??
China seems to be past peak infection rates, with Europe 1-2 weeks away and Australia 4 weeks away from peak CV19 according to some commentators does this mean we could see some normality by year end for QAN?


----------



## rederob (20 March 2020)

I was clearly an optimist a few weeks ago.




I can't see any indication that the wheels are down, so until this flight path changes and we are sure the passengers are safely disembarked, look elsewhere.


----------



## qldfrog (20 March 2020)

Padowan said:


> I’ve never had much success catching a falling knife. Before CV19 Qantas was performing well and is well run company. Given the brand and national importance I’ve heard commentary that the government would bail qantas out if required. If this were all true it would surely make QAN one of the best leverage plays to a recovery in the global travel industry ??
> China seems to be past peak infection rates, with Europe 1-2 weeks away and Australia 4 weeks away from peak CV19 according to some commentators does this mean we could see some normality by year end for QAN?



If peak cv19 is in a month, we can open the bubbly....so wish you were anywhere right.. even 2 months,
In one month, we will be where Italy is today,and still not learning anything from their experience


----------



## Dona Ferentes (28 March 2020)

Didn't I read somewhere that QAN gets something in the order of 30% of its profit from associated activity, the lounge, the frequent flyer program, the marketing for wine, etc


Dona Ferentes said:


> Am thinking of liquidating my Qantas points (inFrequent Flyer) and turning them into wine.
> 
> I know the rational / optimal action is to utilise for future flights, but
> - am unlikely to fly soon
> ...




And lo, as the economy shuts down, at least they're trying for max profits.

The earlier dozen reds on offer two weeks ago: 30,200 points for $179 RRP

....this morning's offer: 43,930 points for a dozen reds $155 RRP

Of course the pricing behind these deals is rather suss, but am I seeing a hard working algorithm trying to earn a bob or two?


----------



## frugal.rock (28 March 2020)

Good pickup @Dona Ferentes
Most people wouldn't notice, am guessing. 
Maybe Qantas have realised that, cat's out of the bag now though!

So going from 169 points to a dollar, up to 283 points for a dollar.
Down ~%60.value.. not sure if that calc is correct...? though...

It's one way to reduce costs... at the expense of NOT rewarding people as well as before.
I wonder if it is a blanket decrease % across the board value change over all the rewards offerings goods?

F.Rock


----------



## Country Lad (28 March 2020)

Dona Ferentes said:


> Didn't I read somewhere that QAN gets something in the order of 30% of its profit from associated activity, the lounge, the frequent flyer program, the marketing for wine, etc




That's correct, last financial year when they were looking to sell it for a number of Billion $,  the Loyalty Program made up 29.6% of the overall profit.


----------



## Padowan (1 April 2020)

Padowan said:


> I’ve never had much success catching a falling knife. Before CV19 Qantas was performing well and is well run company. Given the brand and national importance I’ve heard commentary that the government would bail qantas out if required. If this were all true it would surely make QAN one of the best leverage plays to a recovery in the global travel industry ??
> China seems to be past peak infection rates, with Europe 1-2 weeks away and Australia 4 weeks away from peak CV19 according to some commentators does this mean we could see some normality by year end for QAN?



QAN has bounced hard from 19 March from 2.08 to 3.35, any recovery from here feels like a slow grind


----------



## darkfireraven (10 April 2020)

What is the effect of the QAN post-market close announcements on 9/4/20 re: NED share plan?
Just that those shares are not issued to NEDs?


----------



## qldfrog (10 April 2020)

Hum did not released the jump, how expensive is it to short now?


----------



## Dona Ferentes (21 April 2020)

on the day that Virgin Airways Holdings VAH lost an *H* and went plain ol' VA*, the reaction of QAN was  muted, to say the least. QAN has its own problems; competition isn't one of them at present
.
.

*_Voluntary Administration_


----------



## Chronos-Plutus (11 June 2020)

Dona Ferentes said:


> on the day that Virgin Airways Holdings VAH lost an *H* and went plain ol' VA*, the reaction of QAN was  muted, to say the least. QAN has its own problems; competition isn't one of them at present
> .
> .
> 
> *_Voluntary Administration_



I wonder when QAN will pay the next dividend? Surely capital growth must be hard to invest on, unless you think enough people are willing to run with the herd! But when are the international borders coming down?


----------



## dutchie (25 June 2020)

QAN -shares to be diluted.  Asking for $1.9 bn.


----------



## qldfrog (25 June 2020)

an airline is not exactly a truck company which can park for 6 months, planes need servicing, pilot accreditations etc; whether you fly passengers or not, the operational costs are still very high as are obviously the capital costs, it is no surprise airlines are basket cases at the moment, buy the dip lol


----------



## dutchie (25 June 2020)

Not looking too good. If in an ABC correction and if Wave C = Wave A then QAN is gone.
Not my cup of tea at moment.


----------



## over9k (25 June 2020)

The problem is victoria - there's already talk of a travel bubble between the other states etc. There's also the mask factories coming online in august. 

Certainly not a short position, but some good value for someone wanting to hold long.


----------



## Smurf1976 (25 June 2020)

https://www.abc.net.au/news/2020-06...covery-from-coronavirus-will-be-slow/12391042



> Joyce is expecting Australia's international border to remain closed, at least for tourists, until July next year.
> 
> Even when that border reopens, he is expecting the number of international flights in 2021-22 to be just half of what they were before the coronavirus pandemic




It seems that management isn't expecting international travel to happen, at all, over the next 12 months. Wow...... 

Assuming that's correct, I wonder how difficult it then becomes to get back up and running normally? 

I'm thinking in terms of suppliers or even airports going broke and things like that. I have no firm figures but my logic is that if no money's coming in for international travel and domestic's well below normal then even if Qantas itself survives there's probably going to be some difficulties with suppliers, pilots and other things potentially in short supply once a rebound does occur.


----------



## over9k (26 June 2020)

Things will not return to normal RE: aviation until there's a vaccine.


----------



## Boggo (26 June 2020)

over9k said:


> Things will not return to normal RE: aviation until there's a vaccine.




It's my understanding that there may never be a vaccine to prevent Corona Virus.
At best maybe a treatment vaccine once you have contracted the virus similiar to current treatment only of both SARS and HIV once infected.


----------



## over9k (26 June 2020)

Nah they'll figure something out - it's this generation's manhattan project.


----------



## qldfrog (26 June 2020)

over9k said:


> Things will not return to normal RE: aviation until there's a vaccine.



So never unless we create a pretend vaccine..well under way it seems


----------



## qldfrog (26 June 2020)

Why a vaccine, use masks, 
Sick people dying at 1pc rate if over 80...
The world will not stop for a relatively benign virus, the real issue is when will the government accepts this, the longuer Australia wait, the more the disadvantage for qan vs competitors
Go BA or UA if you want to play the rebound..they will reopen earlier..then do you really want to play airlines shares when the western airlines are competing with Emirates or Asia?


----------



## MovingAverage (26 June 2020)

dutchie said:


> Not looking too good. If in an ABC correction and if Wave C = Wave A then QAN is gone.
> Not my cup of tea at moment.
> 
> View attachment 105210




Nice chart analysis  But no need for a chart if you have a quick look at yesterdays news--$1.9 bill capital raise, at least new 6000 redundancies and unlikely international flights until July next year. QAN have some very major challenges ahead for sure


----------



## dutchie (30 June 2020)

Are QAN and Virgin doomed? Maybe Buffett is right.
With the China virus increasing rapidly in VIC (Melbourne) and a possible second wave coming to OZ.
QAN and Virgin will only make profit from the SYD _ MEL route. That is not looking too healthy in the immediate future.


----------



## Dona Ferentes (30 June 2020)

Bumpy runway. Not cleared for take-off yet.


----------



## sptrawler (30 June 2020)

A buying opportunity will present before this virus is over IMO.
This is when a company needs a ruthless, cold and calculating CEO, check.


----------



## over9k (30 June 2020)

Pretty sure that was yesterday.


----------



## Dona Ferentes (18 July 2020)

sptrawler said:


> A buying opportunity will present before this virus is over IMO.
> This is when a company needs a ruthless, cold and calculating CEO



Qantas chief executive Alan Joyce predicted there would be no substantial return to international flying until July next year at the earliest, due to strict border control measures to stop the virus.

The domestic boss, Andrew David, whose division accounted for more than half of Qantas overall earnings last financial year, will be responsible for propping up the company even further while the crisis plays out.

As recently as late June, the domestic division had reaffirmed its aim to return to flying at 40 per cent of its pre pandemic capacity by July. He remains sure there is* pent-up demand* of which he can take advantage but admits that ambitious goal is *in tatters*.
_



			"We are seeing an increase in intrastate travel, and wherever states are removing border restrictions, we are seeing an increase in interstate travel. We had planned to get to 40 per cent of pre-COVID domestic capacity in July, but we won't get there this month. Unfortunately, that means that there will be less of our people *stood up *to come back to work."
		
Click to expand...


_- I guess if you get *stood down*, then a time will come to be *stood up* (stand up and be counted)?


----------



## greggles (5 March 2021)

Coming back to the QAN thread and I'm very surprised that it has recovered so well given the circumstances of the last 12 months.

After hitting a low of $2 around a year ago in the immediate aftermath of the initial COVID-19 pandemic, it has recovered very strongly to be trading at $5.09 today.

This surprises me because HY21 revenue was down 75.4% on HY20 revenue and a $445 million profit a year earlier was transformed into a $1.08 billion loss.







I can only assume that there is a lot of optimism that post-COVID Qantas will thrive more than any other Australian airline given the sector rationalisation that has occurred in the last 12 months.

But still, it seems very optimistic given that QAN was only trading at $7.25 before the pandemic. To be back over $5 now seems premature to me. It's going to take a long time for the leisure travel sector to recover to pre-COVID-19 levels and I think it's reasonable to expect that international travel will potentially take many years to recover.

QAN recovering from $2 to $5 given its massive losses seems to me to be symptomatic of the current overheated market we are in, and makes me even more confident that the ASX is in for some big declines in 2021.


----------



## Garpal Gumnut (1 June 2021)

I personally will miss Alan Joyce when he eventually retires as CEO of QAN.

He seems to be the only business leader in Australia who is not afraid to stand up to Unions, Vested old capital and Politicians for the good of the company.

gg


----------



## MovingAverage (6 June 2021)

Garpal Gumnut said:


> He seems to be the only business leader in Australia who is not afraid to stand up to Unions, Vested old capital and Politicians for the good of the company.
> 
> gg



Agree, but as CEO he should stop using QAN to push social issues.


----------



## qldfrog (7 June 2021)

He is the perfect image of the Reset, which is ironic as the Reset wants to destroy plane travel for the pleb and keep the 99% in their rabbit hutches.
So not a great future for QAN


----------



## Gunnerguy (7 June 2021)

MovingAverage said:


> Agree, but as CEO he should stop using QAN to push social issues.



As an aside, irrespective of ones personal feelings for the CEO, with ‘blood on the streets’ for travel companies at the moment, and that we invest for the future, would QAN not be a good investment at the moment ?
Low price, bad midterm future (3-6 months) ?
If we come out if this pandemic in the next 6-12 month, would QAN not be a good investment ?
Patient, buy in the bad time with a hope and expectation that in 12 months QAN would be higher ?
Gunnerguy


----------



## MovingAverage (7 June 2021)

Gunnerguy said:


> As an aside, irrespective of ones personal feelings for the CEO, with ‘blood on the streets’ for travel companies at the moment, and that we invest for the future, would QAN not be a good investment at the moment ?
> Low price, bad midterm future (3-6 months) ?
> If we come out if this pandemic in the next 6-12 month, would QAN not be a good investment ?
> Patient, buy in the bad time with a hope and expectation that in 12 months QAN would be higher ?
> Gunnerguy



You'll get no argument from me on that...reckon you're spot on.

I do wonder how much upside there is tho in QAN just before Covid hit they were trading at a little over $7 and they are now current trading at around $4.80 give or take. Not a huge upside, but still a good opportunity.


----------



## qldfrog (7 June 2021)

MovingAverage said:


> You'll get no argument from me on that...reckon you're spot on.
> 
> I do wonder how much upside there is tho in QAN just before Covid hit they were trading at a little over $7 and they are now current trading at around $4.80 give or take. Not a huge upside, but still a good opportunity.



In my opinion, that would be a risky bet, you can do better on silver or gold just as an aside, and looking at airlines worldwide..do you want to own the one for the country which will still be closed for business in 22...
Some airlines yes but not qan IMHO


----------



## MovingAverage (7 June 2021)

qldfrog said:


> In my opinion, that would be a risky bet, you can do better on silver or gold just as an aside, and looking at airlines worldwide..do you want to own the one for the country which will still be closed for business in 22...
> Some airlines yes but not qan IMHO



You know I'm a system trader so unless they pop up as a buy in AB I won't be buying. My track record on discretionary trades isn't good so pay no attention to my opinion on this


----------



## frugal.rock (7 June 2021)

Everyone ignoring the elephant in the room today?









						Australian intelligence believes Qantas has been infiltrated by criminal organisations and bikie gangs, according to a report
					

Qantas has around 150 employees with troubling links to criminal organisations, Australian intelligence has concluded. Reporting by Nine media has revealed that a group of “trusted insiders” within Qantas have significant links to bikie gangs, with the Comancheros and Hells Angels group, using...




					www.businessinsider.com.au


----------



## qldfrog (7 June 2021)

MovingAverage said:


> You know I'm a system trader so unless they pop up as a buy in AB I won't be buying. My track record on discretionary trades isn't good so pay no attention to my opinion on this



MA, i am the same, usually wrong ...


----------



## sptrawler (8 June 2021)

frugal.rock said:


> Everyone ignoring the elephant in the room today?
> 
> 
> 
> ...



Possible buying opportunity ahead?


----------



## qldfrog (8 June 2021)

sptrawler said:


> Possible buying opportunity ahead?



Let it fall first, no income,huge costs,rotten news


----------



## Gunnerguy (22 July 2021)

Is it time to sell some heavily OTM calls on QAN ?
Gunnerguy.


----------



## Garpal Gumnut (13 September 2021)

I'm a bit upset about the announcement from QAN over the regulator not allowing QAN to join JAL in a price fixing scheme. 

Reasons are:

1. Japan is a good place to visit, I know many Japanese who pass through Port of Townsville and they are good people, frank and honest drinkers and partygoers. 

2. I'm losing' me winnin's on QAN.

3. They charge more per ticket than anyone else so I never fly with them ( just a declaration of non-interest ) and Virgin don't have the wherewithal to organise the 15% of what was left of the non QAN-JAL portion of the Oz-Jap market pre-covid. 

gg


----------



## Garpal Gumnut (2 October 2021)

Good news from MRK.N. A tablet for the plague.

I am preparing my trip to Europe on QAN and packing the essentials.

I plan to leave on QAN for LHR and CDG in late northern winter, early northern spring.






gg


----------



## mullokintyre (22 October 2021)

QAN has announced that its all systems go after the opening up of OZ.
From The OZ


> Qantas and Jetstar have flicked the switch to full throttle on their international flight schedule with the possibility services to Bali could be back in operation by Christmas.
> Flanked by Prime Minister Scott Morrison and NSW Premier Dominic Perrottet in Sydney, Qantas CEO Alan Joyce announced all Australian-based employees would return to work by the end of the year as flying ramped up.
> 
> The massive step was in response to the November 1 reopening of NSW to overseas Australian citizens and permanent residents without the need to quarantine.
> Mr Joyce said the airline had recorded more international flight sales than domestic since the NSW announcement, and services would be brought forward in response.



Not sure how CASA will see this "switching on".
Given so many pilots have not even flown for months, and operational currency rules have not been relaxed, it is going to take more than running 24 hour  shifts on the simulators to get enough pilots to satisfy the recency rules to fly all these planes.
So many pilots will not be going back to flying after COVID, maybe the pilot shortage will rear its ugly head again.
Mick


----------



## Dona Ferentes (22 October 2021)

_baby steps .... yield / demand management to the fore, I'd suspect_

What international flights are there from Sydney?​
Los Angeles, United States from November 1
London, UK from November 1
Singapore from November 23
Delhi, India (via Darwin) from December 6 (subject to discussion with Indian authorities)
Nadi, Fiji from December 7
Vancouver, Canada from December 18
Tokyo, Japan from December 19
Honolulu, United States from December 20
Johannesburg, South Africa from January 5
Phuket, Thailand (with Jetstar) from January 12
Bangkok, Thailand from January 14
What international flights are there from Melbourne?​
Singapore (with Jetstar) from December 18
What international flights are there from Darwin?​
Delhi, India (flight originates in Sydney) from December 6 (subject to discussion with Indian authorities)
Singapore (with Jetstar) from December 16, 2021
What about Virgin Australia?​
Virgin Australia has announced it will resume flights to Nadi, Fiji from Christmas.
Flights from Sydney, Melbourne and Brisbane will resume on December 16, 17 and 18 respectively.
The airline is scheduled to resume flights to Bali and New Zealand in 2022.
Unlike Qantas and Jetstar, Virgin Australia has not made it mandatory for international travellers to be fully vaccinated.


----------



## Garpal Gumnut (22 October 2021)

mullokintyre said:


> QAN has announced that its all systems go after the opening up of OZ.
> From The OZ
> 
> Not sure how CASA will see this "switching on".
> ...







Dona Ferentes said:


> _baby steps .... yield / demand management to the fore, I'd suspect_
> 
> What international flights are there from Sydney?​
> Los Angeles, United States from November 1
> ...




It appears to me that the QAN price has little to do with the actuality of air travel today, but rather as with many stocks the promise of a more certain future. 

Pilots will stop driving omnibuses, desert bound planes will be dusted off, CASA will do as they are told by government and cash flow will return. Not today, nor by Christmas but a sometime in the near to mid term future. 

gg


----------



## Garpal Gumnut (28 November 2021)

Garpal Gumnut said:


> It appears to me that the QAN price has little to do with the actuality of air travel today, but rather as with many stocks the promise of a more certain future.
> 
> Pilots will stop driving omnibuses, desert bound planes will be dusted off, CASA will do as they are told by government and cash flow will return. Not today, nor by Christmas but a sometime in the near to mid term future.
> 
> gg



That post may not have aged well. 

We will know in 7-10 days when Covid Omicron reveals its capabilities. 

gg


----------



## Sean K (28 November 2021)

Garpal Gumnut said:


> That post may not have aged well.
> 
> We will know in 7-10 days when Covid Omicron reveals its capabilities.
> 
> gg




I smell opportunity.


----------



## Garpal Gumnut (28 November 2021)

Sean K said:


> I smell opportunity.



Well Sean, you may be correct or you may be incorrect. 

Heisenberg Rules OK.

gg


----------



## Garpal Gumnut (28 November 2021)

I'm actually a bit annoyed it happened over the Thanksgiving holiday on Thursday as all the apprentices would have been in charge with low volumes in the US.

Airlines there down 7-11%. Travel and Petri Dishes (  Cruise Ship Companies ) down 13-15%. on Friday.

Differing versions on Omicron's effects and too early to say.

gg


----------



## Sean K (28 November 2021)

Garpal Gumnut said:


> Well Sean, you may be correct or you may be incorrect.
> 
> Heisenberg Rules OK.
> 
> gg




I adjust my 'opportunity' call to Golden Opportunity, at some point in the near future. Maybe.


----------



## mullokintyre (29 November 2021)

I spoke with an ex QANTA dreamliner captain over the weekend.
He reckons that that a lot of Pilots will not go back, regardless of relaxing of border restrictions.
Many of his peers have taken early retirement, and those with instructor ratings are keeping their hands in doing part time instruction.
It seems that despite the COVID (or maybe because of it), there has been an increase in people wanting to kearn to fly, especially in the RAAUS light sport categories.
But very few , if any of these people will want flying as  career.
Two  young instructors I know working in the Academy  schools  for commercial pilots have both sought apprenticeships, one in Electrical, the other in building, because the academies basically shut down.
The REX academy at Wagga has been very quiet.
There is a large chinese owned academy near where my plane is hangared, and it has basically dried up over the past 18 months as student pilots finish their CPL and Command instrument rating, and new students have not been bought in.
So for two years , there has been very little training of the next generation of pilots.
The Qantas guy told me of two of his younger colleagues who were on long term leave without pay.
The last contact they had from Qantas was that they would be required in 2024!
If commercial flying ever gets back  to anywhere normal, there will be a severe shortage of pilots.
mick


----------



## Craton (14 December 2021)

A punt on life returning to normal.
Eventually the world will have some semblance of the pre-Covid life. Thanks to the Omicron variant the QAN SP has suffered and thus QAN is in my Full Year 2022 tipping comp.


----------



## Sean K (14 December 2021)

Craton said:


> A punt on life returning to normal.
> Eventually the world will have some semblance of the pre-Covid life. Thanks to the Omicron variant the QAN SP has suffered and thus QAN is in my Full Year 2022 tipping comp.




I'm temped to put Covid (-ve) stocks in next years comp too. Just worried about further knee jerks to the next inevitable strain that mutates 'wildly', or other such adjectives.


----------



## Garpal Gumnut (14 December 2021)

There is nothing to sharpen the mind more than a loss on a long term holding, so I'll post a chart on QAN.

It wasn't a huge loss on QAN for my SMSF, but I take losses there more personally for some reason than I do in my trading account. 

I always look again, after a loss, I seem to learn more from them than the gains. Just me. I hate losing money more than I love makin' it. 

I've drawn a chart, a 3 year with support resistance lines at dollar intervals from $7.00 down to $2.00. I don't see much value in the $3.00 one as if it goes there it will be quick and it will end up at $2.00. Equally the $7.00 won't be reached until long after the Trustee for the ggSMSF is on his next life.

So we are left with the $6.00, $5.00 and $4.00. I believe it will swing between $4 and $6 and may be worth long term trading in that range, much as we used long term trade AMP between $4 and $5 and $5 and $6 in the old days. 

The fundamentals for the virus and air travel are not good. Last time I looked at US and UK air carriers whose countries are vainly trying business as usual during the plague they were not doing well. Xi may be next after Omicron, or is it the other way around?

QAN will not pay a divi for years so the funds will not be keen to be "brave". All in all a bad scene man as we used to say. A growth stock in the biggest kerfuffle since WW2 is our Qantas. 







gg


----------



## Sean K (15 December 2021)

Garpal Gumnut said:


> The fundamentals for the virus and air travel are not good. Last time I looked at US and UK air carriers whose countries are vainly trying business as usual during the plague they were not doing well. Xi may be next after Omicron, or is it the other way around?




Xi was before Om. They skipped it because it's a province in China.....


----------



## qldfrog (15 December 2021)

Sean K said:


> Xi was before Om. They skipped it because it's a province in China.....



Actually worse, it is the name of the current president aka great leader


----------



## Sean K (15 December 2021)

qldfrog said:


> Actually worse, it is the name of the current president aka great leader




No, The WHO definitely said it was only because it was the name of a province. You don't believe the UN?


----------



## mullokintyre (15 December 2021)

Sean K said:


> No, The WHO definitely said it was only because it was the name of a province. You don't believe the UN?



So, was the province named after the Great Leader, or was the Great leader named after the province?
Mick


----------



## divs4ever (15 December 2021)

Sean K said:


> No, The WHO definitely said it was only because it was the name of a province. You don't believe the UN?




 not any more ( believe the UN , or WHO . or UNESCO or ....  )


----------



## divs4ever (15 December 2021)

Sean K said:


> I'm temped to put Covid (-ve) stocks in next years comp too. Just worried about further knee jerks to the next inevitable strain that mutates 'wildly', or other such adjectives.



 well some  have suggested you shouldn't let a good crisis go to waste 

 i bought some PFP ( @ $3 in December 2020 )  hasn't done too badly for a stock rarely mentioned in the forums


----------



## qldfrog (15 December 2021)

divs4ever said:


> well some  have suggested you shouldn't let a good crisis go to waste
> 
> i bought some PFP ( @ $3 in December 2020 )  hasn't done too badly for a stock rarely mentioned in the forums



If the narrative was true
 but the 90y olds do not even die, only the young ones..and they are too broke to spend much after suicide and jab heart failures🥴


----------



## divs4ever (15 December 2021)

will creep up on the working and administrative  staff soon 

 ( rule and regulation changes  used to drive me nuts , especially when they didn't remedy a problem )

 i remember one inane  health and safety lecture  which avoided all the potential dangers ( and four obvious ones ) and was bamboozled  on what to do in unusual circumstance  ( like employees or contractors  collapsing on the premises ... since there was NO qualified health-person on the premises ) just made it too complicated for the two certified CPR employees to apply their skills on-site as needed 

  by the time we got to the bomb threat lecture ... well i converted that to the satire it deserved to be ( we had already had an Anthrax scare  and luckily that was a hoax , because it was badly mishandled .. talc powder all through the air-con AND computer systems  and i bet to this day i bet  nobody  checked for lurking asbestos    floating around in the air-con and other dust  but that was 19 years ago  , just dust in the wind 

 fear is the key


----------



## divs4ever (16 December 2021)

Qantas says competition to intensify, will report large H1 loss









						Qantas says competition to intensify, will report large H1 loss By Reuters
					

Qantas says competition to intensify, will report large H1 loss




					www.investing.com


----------



## sptrawler (16 December 2021)

divs4ever said:


> well some  have suggested you shouldn't let a good crisis go to waste
> 
> i bought some PFP ( @ $3 in December 2020 )  hasn't done too badly for a stock rarely mentioned in the forums



I bought into IVC, same reasoning.


----------



## divs4ever (16 December 2021)

can never get the numbers to crunch attractively  ( for me ) on IVC 

unless the debt is secured by property holdings ( and i can't find the answer to that question )  the debt looks scary to me  ( the same reason i exited the inherited QAN )


----------



## divs4ever (16 December 2021)

Qantas flags $1.1b first-half loss​








						Qantas flags $1.1b first-half loss
					

SYDNEY, AAP – Qantas has forecast a first-half loss of more than $1.1 billion but says it has made inroads in reducing debt. The carrier on Thursday blamed the estimated loss in underlying earnings on months of coronavirus lockdowns and travel restrictions from the Delta outbreak. However, chief...




					thebull.com.au


----------



## Garpal Gumnut (17 December 2021)

Just some fundamental information on QAN, and you cannot get more fundamental than this. 

A young lady, a lithesome backpacker from Guernsey and I were about to travel to Brisbane.

I say, "were", as we cancelled. She said she wouldn't mind spending a day or two in quarantine with me should we be sat beside a foreigner, a Victorian or a NSWzir with Omicron, on the flight, and had to subsequently quarantine. There was no way however she would spend two weeks. 

I wonder how many QAN passengers have backpacker girlfriends from Guernsey?

And who have had flights booked and get the wobblies. 

gg


----------



## JohnDe (2 May 2022)

New planes for QANTAS



> QANTAS GROUP ANNOUNCES MAJOR AIRCRAFT ORDER TO SHAPE ITS FUTURE
> 
> Approval of Project Sunrise, with order for 12 x Airbus A350s capable of flying direct from Australia to any other city including New York and London, starting from Sydney in late 2025.
> Domestic fleet renewal from late 2023, with order for 40 x A321XLRs and A220 aircraft; 94 purchase order rights spread over at least a decade.
> ...






> Qantas is pushing the button on its much anticipated Project Sunrise flights, announcing the routes and aircraft order to make the ultra long haul services such as a non-stop Sydney to London flight a reality.
> Details will be revealed at one of the airline’s hangars in Sydney Airport on Monday where a brand new Airbus A350-1000 will touch down.
> 
> The aircraft, painted in Qantas livery made the journey from Airbus headquarters in Toulouse, France over the weekend.
> ...


----------



## Dona Ferentes (2 May 2022)

@JohnDe
Now we know where all that JobKeeper money went (most of it). Pity a few staff weren't kept on to respond when things picked up again. (what do you mean; couldn't anticipate the demand, bookings would have given a fair idea??)

Yep, the new A350-1000 flew low over the city this morning. Interesting how they can get clearance, so easily (ditto, cruise liners returning after an absence getting rent-a-crowd publicity)

N


----------



## Garpal Gumnut (6 July 2022)

Qantas will continue to wane because of systemic issues within and between it's executives, board and workforce. 

It's CEO has generously lowered his salary from the times preceding Covid of $10m plus and is now eking out a living on just about $2m per annum.

https://au.finance.yahoo.com/news/qantas-salary-alan-joyce-061223788.html

In October 2019 pre-pandemic he was reported to be earning just short of $24m per annum.

https://www.news.com.au/finance/wor...y/news-story/077637288a651612d7949e80fab32e29

No wonder Qantas workers are striking for higher wages and punters who are unwise enough not to fly Virgin and pay extra for the flight and a bun are being threatened with increased fares. 

The remuneration of Australian companies' CEO, CFO and other executive and board members are not peculiar to Qantas. 

To avoid recession there needs to be a cap on executive and board pay of all Australian companies and it needs to be under $750k. 

They are not worth what they are getting today. 

gg


----------



## frugal.rock (6 July 2022)

I found Joyce an odd choice to begin with, small man syndrome, but nicer, like a good little leprechaun...


----------



## qldfrog (6 July 2022)

frugal.rock said:


> I found Joyce an odd choice to begin with, small man syndrome, but nicer, like a good little leprechaun...



Nicer, the ultimate POS for me.nothing but revulsion anyone, he is not alone.
A company i avoid even if it cost me more..but sadly often unavoidable


----------



## CityIndex (25 August 2022)

Another huge loss for Qantas, although not too surprising given the COVID related disruptions it continued to face in FY22, as well as their recent difficulties dealing with the surge in travel demand.

The company did announce a $400m on-market buyback, and are forecasting a return to profitability next financial year.

All trading carries risk, but with the stock trading near support around $4.50, it will be interesting to see if the forward guidance encourages buyers to step-in, or breaks to the downside on disappointing earnings.


----------



## Boggo (25 August 2022)

I didn't see any mention of this potential additional $50 loss


----------



## The Triangle (29 August 2022)

Over Joyce: A brief history of one man's fight against everyone
					

Despite a consistent record of alienating all three key elements of the business he heads, Qantas boss Alan Joyce somehow has remained at the controls of the airline for the best part of a decade and a half, writes Ian Verrender.




					www.abc.net.au
				




I don't often quote the ABC...

_During his long reign, he's presided over a *cumulative loss of $2.8 billion*, hardly the kind of performance that would earn anyone the accolades of the business world

Through all this, Joyce has had the backing of government to the point where *Qantas can boast that it has received more taxpayer welfare than any other company in the nation's history*._

Maybe politicians access to the chairmans lounges is responsible for much of the handouts?


----------



## JohnDe (29 August 2022)

The Triangle said:


> Over Joyce: A brief history of one man's fight against everyone
> 
> 
> Despite a consistent record of alienating all three key elements of the business he heads, Qantas boss Alan Joyce somehow has remained at the controls of the airline for the best part of a decade and a half, writes Ian Verrender.
> ...




The ABC (Radio National) also mentioned that Qantas is one of only a few private airlines competing against state owned airlines that do not have to answer to share holders or pay dividends while updating their fleet.

List of government-owned airlines​
Reluctantly sold my holding last week, but the funds are going into an exciting (for my partner & I) project that has been a long tie coming.


----------



## frugal.rock (14 October 2022)

I said to someone on Monday this week that Qantas should have a good week.
Qantas isn't a buy for me for ethical reasons, but that's just me and my quirks.


----------



## qldfrog (16 October 2022)

frugal.rock said:


> I said to someone on Monday this week that Qantas should have a good week.
> Qantas isn't a buy for me for ethical reasons, but that's just me and my quirks.
> 
> View attachment 148034



I just wonder what the future is for a company which is a woke symbol, yet whose actual existence is in conflict with the Reset, has created a lot of bad press since covid and is now in my blacklist for any booking i do or recommend family to fly with..and i am not the only one...


----------



## JohnDe (16 October 2022)

Sold my holdings at the present high, which I purchased during the Covid slump. Qantas has been good but my investment strategy has changed.


----------



## rcw1 (7 November 2022)

Good afternoon
It has been reported today (07/11/22) that analysts at Macquarie predict faster than expected "snap-back in earnings" could see Qantas buying back up to $800m of its shares before dividends return and the airline starts paying taxes in the second half of financial year 2024.

Very interesting.

Kind regards
rcw1


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