# IPL - Incitec Pivot



## 36590

This stock has had a great run in the past year. I can't find any other threads for it.  

Does anyone hold? An unnamed broker has a target of about $45 for it!


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## 36590

You would have to almost put Incitec Pivot in the race for the second stock to reach $100. I wish I took my own advice and bought it.


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## hypnotic

they are definitely having a great run. Wise-owl have put a 12 month target of $100 on this stock. I didn't take on the advise to buy in at $66.  

Chart is looking pretty good. Running very strong even after the Ex-Div

Good luck to those that bought in

Hypnotic


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## vishalt

I think this stock is next on the hit list to go, I'd love to see this tumble down to $40 with 1000 shorts. Weak volumes and consolidation look encouraging for a short imo, if it breaks i'm in!


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## ithatheekret

One of the holdings I thought I may as well use it for my test chart to keep my word to Wayne . 
The company as it stands now , is a merging of two of the main players in the game and IMHO stands as one of the best Blue Chip stocks available .

If not the main player in the distribution and  manufacturing of fertilizers in Australia , with massive scope for expansion and organic growth , tapping into every agricultural industry in Australia .


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## michael_selway

ithatheekret said:


> One of the holdings I thought I may as well use it for my test chart to keep my word to Wayne .
> The company as it stands now , is a merging of two of the main players in the game and IMHO stands as one of the best Blue Chip stocks available .
> 
> If not the main player in the distribution and  manufacturing of fertilizers in Australia , with massive scope for expansion and organic growth , tapping into every agricultural industry in Australia .




Hm this company is worth only about $50 based on current numbers

But is it riskless? Its a business I cant understand atm i.e agricuture etc

*Earnings and Dividends Forecast (cents per share) 
2007 2008 2009 2010 
EPS 401.6 556.1 516.9 507.9 
DPS 300.0 364.0 362.0 346.5 *

thx

MS


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## ithatheekret

Please note I just placed it up to try the chart posting ..... this was not an entre to be served as an investment opinion . 

Not meaning to be rude by this statement people ...... , but do your own research and know why your entering a stock .


I understand your views Micheal , but it's the forward view and not the constant I have bought into against the massive weight of a drought .

My focus is our neighbors in Asia , Indonesia for example , has gone and turned net importer on us and will need to swing the fields into action post haste .

IPL will be there , along with every other exporter Australia can muster into the ring . Agricultural commodity prices over the next decade being the dangling carrot .


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## ithatheekret

Nice rise on the price today , $115 and change . The stock has consistently outperformed the S&P ASX 200 throughout the year , can't complain about that ..........

Booking some $98's and $101's today .


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## ba229

I bought at $25 and sold $30 not so long ago.

There was talk back then that IPL would boom if we got rain because all the farmers would be planting and fertilising.


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## ithatheekret

Shows just how the market works , you were selling $30 we were buying from $28 , just moved some higher plays off the board . Still got a swag of $87 too .


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## ithatheekret

It seems to be getting more interest lately . 

Not that you hear it mentioned in the t.v. network splutterings .


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## ithatheekret

Still outperforming the market , but I thought I'd put the 5yr chart up for comments as there don't seem to be many holders here .

This is how I see five years of fun and wealth creation . New ATH today again .


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## ithatheekret

Update whilst the market is seeing red , thought we'd see how she's holding up on this sailing voyage in choppy waters . The 126 high has fallen back just under 1% to 124.65 at present .


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## ithatheekret

Let's see what happened throughout the latest Cash is King day with the stock ...... comments are welcome ....... I don't bite


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## explod

ithatheekret said:


> Let's see what happened throughout the latest Cash is King day with the stock ...... comments are welcome ....... I don't bite




No worries Isasecret, it will just keep going up the steps.   The drop today is within Fridays T/R and the drop in volume says they just want to keep em, and so would I.  It crossed my mind some eight months ago but one cannot watch or be in everything.


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## hacheln_mice

I've noted on my blog a few days ago that two potential points of resistance will be 126 and 150 (if 126 is breached).

The reason I came up with 126 is shown on the chart below.  Anyway, I don't see any danger to the intermediate term uptrend unless the mid December lows are taken out.


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## chops_a_must

hacheln_mice said:


> I've noted on my blog a few days ago that two potential points of resistance will be 126 and 150 (if 126 is breached).
> 
> The reason I came up with 126 is shown on the chart below.  Anyway, I don't see any danger to the intermediate term uptrend unless the mid December lows are taken out.




Yep, so long as this stays above 110, it's still worth a punt IMO. If it wants to fill that gap just below, it's wait and see time. The problem with stocks like this is, they just don't dip! So buggered if I know how you could get a decent entry on it.


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## treefrog

hacheln_mice said:


> I've noted on my blog a few days ago that two potential points of resistance will be 126 and 150 (if 126 is breached).
> 
> The reason I came up with 126 is shown on the chart below.  Anyway, I don't see any danger to the intermediate term uptrend unless the mid December lows are taken out.




amazing run

has pretty well ignored the first and second fib resistance levels from when its had a little retrace (seldom) and charges straight through to maximum
extension
these have been the 710/720 level ; then 870/880; and now on to the max again - this time target is 150
as this is its third consecutive run it may retrace where it is - 120 which I have as the second fib level for this run

cheerz


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## ithatheekret

Taken a pounding in the last couple of days . 

I have some level areas notched in , which I thought would be good to put up for retracement discussions etc.etc.

81/84

87-9/91

98/111

114-5/116-8

119/120-123

I don't have enough data for the any higher levels .


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## treefrog

SP now (at time of 1430hrs) is 115 which is strong S/R point and 50% retrace of last run from 18 dec to 8 jan when trend broke

expect consolidation here for mine but......., frogs don't always pick the right time to cross the highway


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## ithatheekret

This is stock is studio blue .

But it shows the power of liquidity , the investment arms of banks , have got the pillars CEO's scraping poop off their shoes again ........ all over the country , nasty having an index leveraged to poop scrapers .

If 114 was bottom that would be rather comfortable , but if we see a decline after what I thought was short covering in the US , we may have to add  109/110 right smack in the middle of one of the ranges .


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## ithatheekret

Ca5(PO4)3F

Find out what that is and you'll know why I like this stock .


I hope I'm allowed to post this , but I think this stock is going to go blue sky mining around the $170/$180 area in the reasonably near future , ten (10) months would be enough to gauge the prospects ( 200days) .


In fact it could be one of the better 2008 stocks .

Are we allowed to say Monsanto here ?  

I think that's a wonderful stock too .............


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## grace

ithatheekret said:


> Ca5(PO4)3F
> 
> Find out what that is and you'll know why I like this stock .
> 
> 
> I hope I'm allowed to post this , but I think this stock is going to go blue sky mining around the $170/$180 area in the reasonably near future , ten (10) months would be enough to gauge the prospects ( 200days) .
> 
> 
> In fact it could be one of the better 2008 stocks .
> 
> Are we allowed to say Monsanto here ?
> 
> I think that's a wonderful stock too .............





It is calcium fluorapatite I think.  Is it used with rare earths to make lasers?    
This company seems to have a healthy share of the fertilizer market.  Makes plenty of money selling it (more than the farmers do by fertilizing their crops).  We are just horrified at the prices we have be pay for fertilizer!  Should just own part of this company instead!


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## michael_selway

ithatheekret said:


> Ca5(PO4)3F
> 
> Find out what that is and you'll know why I like this stock .
> 
> 
> I hope I'm allowed to post this , but I think this stock is going to go blue sky mining around the $170/$180 area in the reasonably near future , ten (10) months would be enough to gauge the prospects ( 200days) .
> 
> 
> In fact it could be one of the better 2008 stocks .
> 
> Are we allowed to say Monsanto here ?
> 
> I think that's a wonderful stock too .............




*Ca5(PO4)3F*...hmno idea, please tell us!

*Earnings and Dividends Forecast (cents per share) 
2007 2008 2009 2010 
EPS 401.6 627.7 628.7 604.5 
DPS 300.0 471.0 456.8 431.0 *

thx

MS


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## ithatheekret

Yep that's the one Grace . I know what you mean , bag of super an acre , plus seed , + + + + + , then pray for rain .

That's just superphosphate .


Ca5(PO4)3F is phosphate rock , but it contains varying levels of fluoride too .

They crunch it all up chuck in some sulphuric acid get a reaction which lets off a gas that's full of fluoride , which they then purify through water by dissolving it and then concentrating it . It gives them fluorsilicic acid .

The Geelong plant ( where they make it ) is undergoing a storage expansion and productivity increasing measures through automation , so the company can increase volumes etc.etc.etc.


Now that's all I'm chucking in , off ya's go and research . research , research .

After the research think ASIA ..............


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## grace

ithatheekret said:


> Yep that's the one Grace . I know what you mean , bag of super an acre , plus seed , + + + + + , then pray for rain .
> 
> That's just superphosphate .
> 
> 
> Ca5(PO4)3F is phosphate rock , but it contains varying levels of fluoride too .
> 
> They crunch it all up chuck in some sulphuric acid get a reaction which lets off a gas that's full of fluoride , which they then purify through water by dissolving it and then concentrating it . It gives them fluorsilicic acid .
> 
> The Geelong plant ( where they make it ) is undergoing a storage expansion and productivity increasing measures through automation , so the company can increase volumes etc.etc.etc.
> 
> 
> Well, I'm going to brush aside the most common use which is flouridation of drinking water (but then now that us Qlders will finally have that, demand will increase....   Perhaps it could be something else........
> 
> 
> Fluorsilicic acid can be used instead of (and is often preferred to) Fluorspar which is used primarily as a flux in steelmaking to reduce slag, lower melting point and remove impurities.  Also used in turning Alumina to aluminium metal.


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## grace

Hey, "its a secret", how did I do?  Did I get the answer right....and if so, are they currently selling for this reason, how much, very profitable??????????


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## ithatheekret

It's profitable , even more profitable , when considering the limited licences to produce are in the extreme minority . Only one of these has to close and the market price gets rattled , Asian demand will rise in all of the areas you mentioned come on line , theres' also an application for pure gypsum that can use the product , but I believe that is in a raw form , for a type of plastering .

Amorphous Silica , with very high purity levels (95-98%) can be made though an ammoniation process of the chemical , this synthetic product is used in the production of semi-conductor chips etc. as it has excellent insulation properties .

So you see it not just farmers that will want the companies products in Asia .

There's more too in other areas , but hmmm,  I'll wait until CNBC cotton on .
You just got 2 months research for free .  :


PS.. You did okay Grace , cheers


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## ithatheekret

I thought I'd better put a chart up showing the movements in the last 10 days , 10 days of madness throughout the markets.


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## ithatheekret

It's breached below $110 .00 , so far to  $109.80 seen a little support , what there is out there .............


I have bids lined up down at $87 + through to $98 , just in case it gets back there .


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## ithatheekret

ithatheekret said:


> Taken a pounding in the last couple of days .
> 
> I have some level areas notched in , which I thought would be good to put up for retracement discussions etc.etc.
> 
> 81/84
> 
> 87-9/91
> 
> 98/111
> 
> 114-5/116-8
> 
> 119/120-123
> 
> I don't have enough data for the any higher levels .





*81/84   87-89/91 98/111 114-5/116-118    119/120-123*

I think we've found the levels so far , my orders are still in , but I think I've blown it , I didn't pick up any when it hit $100 even .


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## ithatheekret

Just pulled up the equities a/cs , shocked . Been so busy , with bloomin' forex I forgot coalers shot up again too .


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## treefrog

given the royal tour of wifey's elderly uncle's sheep properties in the mallee districts quite recently and enquired how often they fertilised the crop areas these days - 'oh not these days laddie, fert is too dear, we leave the paddocks sit fer a year or two after a crop'
I proffered that the fertiliser was too dear because incitec pivot was charging too much and making too much money - their share price was now about $120."is it really?" he responded "i've got a few of those"
suggested that he could sell the shares and afford fertiliser but he insisted he only had a few 'they used to give us a few when we bought a few bags of their fertiliser - they don't do that anymore'
so how many would you have i enquired - after a long pause, "about 3100 I think, I like to keep things to that 31 number"
so I suggested that 3100 IPL was significant but he reackoned not - was the only share he held that did not total 31000 units, so I agreed then it was just a few and asked why the number 31? just like it laddie he replied, 10 companies with 31000 shares in each - always used to buy a few shares with some of my wool cheque, but can't afford them now - too dear. used to get them for less than a pound each you know" as we walked to the edge of a dam very low in water a pulled a woolly from the mud. 
what are the main ones you hold then I asked
"hmmm, woolies, broken hill co, boral - they split that one in half you know - can't recall the others atm but no banks - don't like banks"
had to wonder why we weren't inspecting the acerage in a hummer or helicopter rather than an EK ute
you should sell those incitec when they get to $150 shortly I advised - would be a good price. "$150, really, that high? but no, I never sell my shares - wouldn't know how to.".


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## chops_a_must

treefrog said:


> given the royal tour of wifey's elderly uncle's sheep properties in the mallee districts quite recently and enquired how often they fertilised the crop areas these days - 'oh not these days laddie, fert is too dear, we leave the paddocks sit fer a year or two after a crop'
> I proffered that the fertiliser was too dear because incitec pivot was charging too much and making too much money - their share price was now about $120."is it really?" he responded "i've got a few of those"
> suggested that he could sell the shares and afford fertiliser but he insisted he only had a few 'they used to give us a few when we bought a few bags of their fertiliser - they don't do that anymore'
> so how many would you have i enquired - after a long pause, "about 3100 I think, I like to keep things to that 31 number"
> so I suggested that 3100 IPL was significant but he reackoned not - was the only share he held that did not total 31000 units, so I agreed then it was just a few and asked why the number 31? just like it laddie he replied, 10 companies with 31000 shares in each - always used to buy a few shares with some of my wool cheque, but can't afford them now - too dear. used to get them for less than a pound each you know" as we walked to the edge of a dam very low in water a pulled a woolly from the mud.
> what are the main ones you hold then I asked
> "hmmm, woolies, broken hill co, boral - they split that one in half you know - can't recall the others atm but no banks - don't like banks"
> had to wonder why we weren't inspecting the acerage in a hummer or helicopter rather than an EK ute
> you should sell those incitec when they get to $150 shortly I advised - would be a good price. "$150, really, that high? but no, I never sell my shares - wouldn't know how to.".




Bahahaha. Classic.

Looks like IPL is now breaking out of another channel. A really beautiful chart, with a hell of a lot of interest on any dips. Could be just blowing off but doesn't look overpriced compared to some other growth stocks I follow, decent EPS and DPS to boot.


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## MRC & Co

treefrog said:


> given the royal tour of wifey's elderly uncle's sheep properties in the mallee districts quite recently and enquired how often they fertilised the crop areas these days - 'oh not these days laddie, fert is too dear, we leave the paddocks sit fer a year or two after a crop'
> I proffered that the fertiliser was too dear because incitec pivot was charging too much and making too much money - their share price was now about $120."is it really?" he responded "i've got a few of those"
> suggested that he could sell the shares and afford fertiliser but he insisted he only had a few 'they used to give us a few when we bought a few bags of their fertiliser - they don't do that anymore'
> so how many would you have i enquired - after a long pause, "about 3100 I think, I like to keep things to that 31 number"
> so I suggested that 3100 IPL was significant but he reackoned not - was the only share he held that did not total 31000 units, so I agreed then it was just a few and asked why the number 31? just like it laddie he replied, 10 companies with 31000 shares in each - always used to buy a few shares with some of my wool cheque, but can't afford them now - too dear. used to get them for less than a pound each you know" as we walked to the edge of a dam very low in water a pulled a woolly from the mud.
> what are the main ones you hold then I asked
> "hmmm, woolies, broken hill co, boral - they split that one in half you know - can't recall the others atm but no banks - don't like banks"
> had to wonder why we weren't inspecting the acerage in a hummer or helicopter rather than an EK ute
> you should sell those incitec when they get to $150 shortly I advised - would be a good price. "$150, really, that high? but no, I never sell my shares - wouldn't know how to.".




This reminds me of a quote I heard by one of the leading stockbrokers in the US, relating this metaphor to investing in stocks, it goes something like:

If you put 1000 men in barrels and push them off Niagra falls, some of them are going to survive.  If you then take those survivers, put them in barrels and push them back over Niagra falls, some of those are going to survive again.  These men will then write books about how to survive while being pushed over Niagra falls in a barrel!

This bloke should start writing books!  Out of the banks (good market timing ), buy good companies and hold (value investing ).  Unbeleivable how much he would be worth and he doesnt even know it! ha ha ha, good story treefrog!


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## MRC & Co

What do you guys make of the huge spike in volume on Friday with ultimately, barely any price movement?  

Looked to be on a role at first, then some huge sellers came in!


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## ithatheekret

I think this stock is a beauty . 50% rise from the dip to $100 in around 3 months . 

Certainly stood out in the crowd today .


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## michael_selway

ithatheekret said:


> I think this stock is a beauty . 50% rise from the dip to $100 in around 3 months .
> 
> Certainly stood out in the crowd today .




It might be expensive to buy now u think?

*Earnings and Dividends Forecast (cents per share) 
2007 2008 2009 2010 
EPS 401.6 824.6 833.5 830.3 
DPS 300.0 577.0 590.0 608.2 *



> Date: 7/2/2008
> Author: Tracy Lee
> Source: The Australian Financial Review --- Page: 8
> Australian-listed agricultural fertiliser group Incitec Pivot has enjoyed stronggrowth in recent years. The stock is now trading above $A100, and the mostbullish analysts expect it to rise to around $A148. Much of Incitec Pivot'ssuccess has stemmed from its decision to focus on manufacturing rather than thedistribution of fertilisers. Manufacturing now accounts for more than 80 percent of Incitec's earnings, while the acquisition of Southern CrossFertilisers has allowed it to capitalise on the surging price of ammoniumphosphate. Meanwhile, an efficiency program known as Tardis has significantlyexceeded Incitec's expectations in terms of cost savings




thx

MS


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## MRC & Co

michael_selway said:


> It might be expensive to buy now u think?
> 
> *Earnings and Dividends Forecast (cents per share)
> 2007 2008 2009 2010
> EPS 401.6 824.6 833.5 830.3
> DPS 300.0 577.0 590.0 608.2 *
> 
> 
> 
> thx
> 
> MS




Yes, I think it could be expensive, but there is still definately room left for this one yet if those forecasts are reached!


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## ithatheekret

I can't disagree Micheal , I've moved most of my position off , only left with 150 . 

This is where I ask myself a few questions .

Does it represent good value in the current market ?

Are the institutions coming onboard ?

Is the sentiment of the share under scrutiny ?

Is there room for further growth ?

Are earnings expected to continue to be robust ?

What is the global outlook for this stock ?

And ... what does the chart say ?


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## ithatheekret

There's $170 on the board for a cost push trade .

.......... and just to make my day ABB rolls into $9 as well .


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## redwynne

I have liked this share for a long time. How many shares can boast an increase from approx $45 to $170 in 12 months?

I watched IPL for a while before I bought and probably lost $20 per share in the process because I thought it wouldnt last long. But also, who would ever think of paying $100 for a share? I was trying to justify to myself that it was worth it. Eventually I did buy, and now seeing them get to $170 Im wondering when will the bubble burst? How does one know when to sell? Should I hang on? I would rather hang on for 12 months to minimise the capital gains but will it hold out until Dece 2008 or will the bubble burst way before that?

Any advice here would be appreciated  I am so new to shares and the way they operate. The terminology used is sometimes beyond my understanding. Call me a noob! I am by no means an expert. I picked IPL purely because of its upward trend. Draw a line of best fit and its pointing upwards.

Also, Im curious, how does one find out the most expensive stock on the ASX? Is there a way to find out? 

Thanks heaps!


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## prawn_86

Redwynne,

Pirce is not really important, it is market cap that is comparable among companies.

MC = SP * # of shares on issue.

I suggest you check out the Beginners Lounge for more info on this.

Does anyone know IPLs MC? About $7bill I thought, but I could be totally wrong.


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## ithatheekret

Did you have a plan with the trade ?

My plan was interrupted by another stock being sold down heavily and my preference not to take up margin . 

Like you it has cost me twenty dollars on this trade for a larger portion of the holding , but fortunately the other plan work just as well . 

Now if only CBA could manage to get down to todays NAB price .........

For the rest you need Razz , I mean Nick Radge 

He has a nicer way of putting things than I .


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## ithatheekret

prawn_86 said:


> Does anyone know IPLs MC? About $7bill I thought, but I could be totally wrong.




I had it around 7.46B at one stage , we can toss those numbers out now , I think it's increased a tad .

ANZ got out too early and AXA jumped in .

Stellar ride for share holders , the company has certainly grown though .


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## redwynne

No I dont have a plan with my trade. Im just plodding along watching it grow! I did want to make enough money to wipe off a small debt 

According to SMH, approx 8billion shares is the market cap, there are 50mil already issued and the share price isnt >$170 any more! Its back down to $160something.

Thanks for the feedback


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## vishalt

This stock is ridiculous, congrats to anyone who had this, oh my god @ $173, it JUST DOES NOT STOP. 

One day incitec, 

one day, 

when you flunk a profit report

i'll be waiting

TO SHORT YOU!


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## michael_selway

vishalt said:


> This stock is ridiculous, congrats to anyone who had this, oh my god @ $173, it JUST DOES NOT STOP.
> 
> One day incitec,
> 
> one day,
> 
> when you flunk a profit report
> 
> i'll be waiting
> 
> TO SHORT YOU!




Hm it could be overvalued you know!

*Earnings and Dividends Forecast (cents per share) 
2007 2008 2009 2010 
EPS 401.6 824.6 833.5 830.3 
DPS 300.0 577.0 590.0 608.2 

EPS(c) PE Growth 
Year Ending 30-09-08 824.6 19.4 105.3% 
Year Ending 30-09-09 833.5 19.2 1.1% *



> Date: 7/2/2008
> Author: Tracy Lee
> Source: The Australian Financial Review --- Page: 8
> Australian-listed agricultural fertiliser group Incitec Pivot has enjoyed stronggrowth in recent years. The stock is now trading above $A100, and the mostbullish analysts expect it to rise to around $A148. Much of Incitec Pivot'ssuccess has stemmed from its decision to focus on manufacturing rather than thedistribution of fertilisers. Manufacturing now accounts for more than 80 percent of Incitec's earnings, while the acquisition of Southern CrossFertilisers has allowed it to capitalise on the surging price of ammoniumphosphate. Meanwhile, an efficiency program known as Tardis has significantlyexceeded Incitec's expectations in terms of cost savings




http://news.smh.com.au/incitec-lifts-earnings-guidance/20080306-1xgf.html


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## ithatheekret

Well what can I say , oh sorry Tracey my analysis was better than yours , it came out well before hers , which was well under my target . Funny how she managed to bring it up well late into the rally . Is that where she and ANZ had notched in and exited ?

Well my target as stated was between $170 - $180 , it got half way in between those and I called toss it . Won't it back up until it hits the ground , the I'll be back .

By the way , it's not bragging if you can do it .

I''l pinch Nicks saying again , *" Plan the trade , trade the plan "*

Anyone that can't do that , needs to PM Nick Radge and beg his assistance .

He can do it and has done for the last ten years I've known of him , I've watched him cop flak before , goes with his territory .

But those who can't must be willing to commit the time , if not go buy Aussie Bonds .


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## MRC & Co

ithatheekret said:


> Well my target as stated was between $170 - $180 , it got half way in between those and I called toss it . Won't it back up until it hits the ground , the I'll be back .
> 
> By the way , it's not bragging if you can do it .
> 
> I''l pinch Nicks saying again , *" Plan the trade , trade the plan "*




Just out of interest itha, how did you come up with a target between $170-180?

Was it based on some kind of technical trend, or was it your fundamental "fair value"?  

When you say "plan the trade, trade the plan" I gather you mean selling once it becomes close to your predicted price range?  But how you are determining this predicted price range is what interests me?  I could understand if it was fundamental, but isnt position trading far easier if using technicals?  I mean, if this one turned against you and set a new downward trend, would you still hold tight trying to trade the plan?  

Cheers


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## ithatheekret

It was two months research , wanted to know whether to buy more or sell .

I do the math , go walkabout at times . My projections are differnt to those of the companies also , they're looking or have put forward 135% , my lower end is 118% and I wondered if they put out a discounted forecast . I know fundamentals lag , but they are a basis , it just depends on how much you can stretch them to get them close enough to realtime inputs and outlays .

( did I say that right Nick ? )  

I also watch trucks of go by daily , and a lot of new Ag equipment has rolled pass too , not to mention watertanks, someones making a quid selling tanks .

Counted out prospective numbers based on the rise and quite possibly another yet for fertilizers . Some would call it a quasi analysis , and my numbers are based on the lowest projections .

If just one of the plants like the one in Geelong go down somewhere in the world , prices will spike higher again .

But like I said it was time to toss it , ( means out the window ) , haven't seen it hit the ground yet  . Market cap means nothing to me at present , good time for a raising though  . It was the projected target , moved some off prior , looking for an entry now .

I discussed entry levels earlier but no-one really popped in to consider them .

I was thinking ahead always knew the softies would go up , that's what your suppose to do . If people can't think ahead see Razz .

There's others like NUF Chops mentioned them to me the other week , they've just got a good acq which will see good organic growth , company has a raising to public investors soon I think ???? Around the $15 region ??

ABB , GNC , DXL should do okay in this climate , entries may depend on whether the asx200 stays above todays close or goes and pushes through 5200 and below . A lot of cash raising going on , frantic even  

But they all have buying levels . Why don't we find some more and make money that's what we're here for ............

If your on the right track just ignore the noise and BS .


----------



## austek

MRC & Co said:


> Just out of interest itha, how did you come up with a target between $170-180?
> 
> Was it based on some kind of technical trend, or was it your fundamental "fair value"?
> 
> When you say "plan the trade, trade the plan" I gather you mean selling once it becomes close to your predicted price range?  But how you are determining this predicted price range is what interests me?  I could understand if it was fundamental, but isnt position trading far easier if using technicals?  I mean, if this one turned against you and set a new downward trend, would you still hold tight trying to trade the plan?
> 
> Cheers




A simple measured move gives $170 usually conservative, then I apply Robert Miners "Alternative Price Projection" comes with latest Metastock, and this gives a target of $175.   My own touch is to draw a rectangle between the 2 and get out in the middle of the rectangular box in this case $172.

Unfortunately my plan suggests take half profit, was out $173.40 but missed half the jump.

I have a  Trading Journal designed by Jason from the Chartist forum which incorporates EW targets and this gives $180, but I don't use it.

As itha indicates their will be more opportunities. Fertilizer suplly is down,
Qslnd floods ruined the Phosphate hill plant, Mt Isa has shut down & China's own plant has had several disruptions recently.
Wheat production is expected to double next year and India & China cannot get enough of the stuff, so demand should continue.

Last years trend of 233% likely to diminish somewhat due to the US slow down, but catching the rallies will make it interesting.


----------



## ithatheekret

There's a lot more you can apply with Metastock , as long as your scripting doesn't crash the programme ( managed that a few times ) , but ...... if you can develope a scripting ( and have a large enough processor ) , you would be amazed what you can get the program to do . 

It took two months to get all my basics together on IPL , the rest was feed .

I actually have another set up showing from 183. through to 197. , based on historicals and projected forward earnings , market volume and median price ranges . The previous one I brought up were the first tranch in the feed . If the string is correct it get 's pretty close .

I've got an indicator of my own shows a developement area above 163. at present . But won't go into that Red will jump me 

I'd say you tweak your string up Austek ???? V10 here cos' of new windows upgrades . ( if anyones thinkiing about it  , go platinum highly recommend it , can even use for NAB ,,, that's saying something ) 

I use a few fundamental feeds , Paritech are good ( god send )  , but I cross reference with others and add my own data as well . Depending on the version , you can do quite a lot in considerably less time . I have the ASX data package , consider it a must , it's $200 a year or around that I think , after GST . Can't remember for sure sorry , don't handle the accounts and bills .

Just fed a script which I think was from another version into my old set up and it crashed , lots of dejavu this week , been there done that .... often .


----------



## MRC & Co

Ok cheers, so basically its a price projection derived from FA.

Use a few different fundamental feeds, damn!  

I will check out some of those other tickers.  

Thx.


----------



## austek

MrC
Not FA for me, I did give an FA story to bolster confidence in IPL but all my trading actions and targets are based on the chart ie., price & volume. 

ITHA
I have vers 10.1 and after 10 years of crashes and indicator malfunctions I switched from Paritech to Premium Data with no regrets.  No crashes and I even get a chart of the dow jones for the same price as Paritech

I'm the wrong generation to be worried about MS formulas, I struggle to cope with the basics of a computer, let alone formulas, although I have had a few designed for me, which I rarely use.

It's just a game of learn at your own pace.


----------



## redwynne

Ouch less than $130 now . I havent seen IPL drop so dramatically in all the time I have been watching this stock. Thats like down ummm $20 and the day isnt over yet!! Thats like $30-$40 in less than a week.

Well like the minority (I suspect) here I dont actually know much about stocks. I just watch them. Though I do get the feeling that a lot of things that happen on the stock exchange are planned, are as a result of takeovers, etc. eg http://news.smh.com.au/incitec-lifts-earnings-guidance/20080306-1xgf.html and either an insider or an avid stock watcher may pick things up.

Hopefully it will claw its way back up to a really nice number for me to keep smiling :

Anyways Im in it for the long haul, not for a quick buck. Its still my favourite stock even now. Now boys, unless there is something I should know... 

Should call myself StockNoob!

EDIT: more news http://business.smh.com.au/33bn-bid-for-dyno/20080311-1ylg.html
fertiliser and explosive combo, sounds interesting!!


----------



## BBand

As they say - once everybody is talking about a particular stock, much of the buying has already been done i.e. and there are not so many prospective buyers left - if you are in , maybe its time to consider getting out (if your stop has not already been hit)??

Having said that - to-days reaction looks a bit over done !!

Who knows

Good luck


----------



## MRC & Co

BBand said:


> As they say - once everybody is talking about a particular stock, much of the buying has already been done i.e. and there are not so many prospective buyers left - if you are in , maybe its time to consider getting out (if your stop has not already been hit)??
> 
> Having said that - to-days reaction looks a bit over done !!
> 
> Who knows
> 
> Good luck




Famous last words!  

I imagine many stops would have been hit yesterday as it broke out of its trading range.  

No doubt some thinking it may have found horizontal support just below close and hoping for a bounce.

Once that did not happen at open today, I think most would have seen their stops triggered.  At least those who had stops placed.

Big question is now, will it fill that gap?  Or does the high volume and wide open-close see a further capitulation?


----------



## ithatheekret

I think the completion move into DXL has opened up a new mystery door for analysts to peer through .

More bang for your buck now .

Will this move bring out the predators though ?

The $2B move sheds a whole new light on the company now and puts it in direct competition with other market darlings . Opening up new ground for the company to tread .


----------



## Sean K

It was only a few months ago when there was a bunch of stocks racing toward the $100 mark. RIO and IPL made it while MQG and COH have nosedived. 

Now, incredibly, IPL is racing toward $200. What an amazing run up from 3 years ago when it was chugging along around $10. Would have like to have been an initial investor back then. 

I suppose the question is, can it keep going? Just how high can it's poo products run up before the equation topples over?


----------



## Miner

kennas said:


> It was only a few months ago when there was a bunch of stocks racing toward the $100 mark. RIO and IPL made it while MQG and COH have nosedived.
> 
> Now, incredibly, IPL is racing toward $200. What an amazing run up from 3 years ago when it was chugging along around $10. Would have like to have been an initial investor back then.
> 
> I suppose the question is, can it keep going? Just how high can it's poo products run up before the equation topples over?




It is an incredible success story. With a high shortage of soft commodity food grains across the world, curbing of export by agriculture based countries many good analysts including Eureka Report have cited IPL as a buy even with a high price.

I am no chartist but sharing what I have been reading on IPL.


----------



## redwynne

Woohoo Patience *IS *a virtue!! Happy to see it still climbing up. Glad I stuck it out. Was worried for a while there. But yeah it does beg the question, will it keep its upward climb? And if so, for how long? I have no stop on it as I am trying to keep it for at least 12 months, thats til December then. Prefer the tax man not to get more than his fair share of the profits. So here's hoping it will still be high in a few months time. In the past twelve months it started off at $40something and is now $170something.

Ahh I still love this share!  Whats there not to love about it!!:


----------



## michael_selway

redwynne said:


> Woohoo Patience *IS *a virtue!! Happy to see it still climbing up. Glad I stuck it out. Was worried for a while there. But yeah it does beg the question, will it keep its upward climb? And if so, for how long? I have no stop on it as I am trying to keep it for at least 12 months, thats til December then. Prefer the tax man not to get more than his fair share of the profits. So here's hoping it will still be high in a few months time. In the past twelve months it started off at $40something and is now $170something.
> 
> Ahh I still love this share!  Whats there not to love about it!!:




Hi do you reckon IPL has peaked?

*Earnings and Dividends Forecast (cents per share) 
2007 2008 2009 2010 
EPS 401.6 990.8 1,110.5 1,016.9 
DPS 300.0 715.0 773.0 665.0 *

thx

MS


----------



## redwynne

michael_selway said:


> Hi do you reckon IPL has peaked?
> 
> *Earnings and Dividends Forecast (cents per share)
> 2007 2008 2009 2010
> EPS 401.6 990.8 1,110.5 1,016.9
> DPS 300.0 715.0 773.0 665.0 *
> 
> thx
> 
> MS




TBH I have no clue. I know nothing about shares, how they work, why they go up and why they go down etc. I just look at the trend and this has had a fairly upward trend for a while whilst others have had sporadic movements. I tried to learn a little bit about them but Im not sure if I understand it all.

Im just glad IPL has moved back up to its previous peak, but then again, it has already dropped to about $170 today so maybe it has reached its peak. I would be happy if in December 2008 it would be at its peak again because the money I have made will be worth the wait.

I dont believe I could get a similar return on a fixed term deposit at a bank... could I?

NoobInvester


----------



## YOUNG_TRADER

kennas said:


> It was only a few months ago when there was a bunch of stocks racing toward the $100 mark. RIO and IPL made it while MQG and COH have nosedived.
> 
> Now, incredibly, IPL is racing toward $200. What an amazing run up from 3 years ago when it was chugging along around $10. Would have like to have been an initial investor back then.
> 
> I suppose the question is, can it keep going? Just how high can it's poo products run up before the equation topples over?




Yeah amazing to see how the most expensive stock on the ASX is an Agri stock, not Oil, not Iron Ore but Agri, it makes sense really,

I mean although we think the world can't survive without Oil ie it is the life blood of civilization, the truth is food, water and fresh air are the life blood of civilization, so it makes sense that the most valuable commodity should really be food

It seems so obvious now, so ridiculously obvious that the Chindia boom would flow into food and Agri products but thats hindsight I guess


----------



## redwynne

YOUNG_TRADER said:


> Yeah amazing to see how the most expensive stock on the ASX is an Agri stock, not Oil, not Iron Ore but Agri, it makes sense really,
> 
> I mean although we think the world can't survive without Oil ie it is the life blood of civilization, the truth is food, water and fresh air are the life blood of civilization, so it makes sense that the most valuable commodity should really be food




Bottom line is we CAN live w/o oil, the cavemen (and cavewomen) did many many many years ago. But we cannot live w/o food and water under any circumstances.

How does one know that IPL stock is the most expensive on the ASX? Is there a way to find out?


----------



## michael_selway

YOUNG_TRADER said:


> Yeah amazing to see how the most expensive stock on the ASX is an Agri stock, not Oil, not Iron Ore but Agri, it makes sense really,
> 
> I mean although we think the world can't survive without Oil ie it is the life blood of civilization, the truth is food, water and fresh air are the life blood of civilization, so it makes sense that the most valuable commodity should really be food
> 
> It seems so obvious now, so ridiculously obvious that the Chindia boom would flow into food and Agri products but thats hindsight I guess




But IPL isnt a food company in itself compared to AWB, GNC, ABB?

thx

MS

*Earnings and Dividends Forecast (cents per share) 
2007 2008 2009 2010 
EPS 401.6 1,002.3 1,110.5 1,100.2 
DPS 300.0 753.0 784.6 693.0 *



> Business Description
> Incitec Pivot Limited (IPL) is Australias largest supplier of fertilizers. IPL is involved in the manufacture, distribution and sale of fertilisers with manufacturing facilities in Qld, Vic and NSW and distribution networks nationally.
> 
> Company Strategy
> IPL supplies more than 50% of Australias agricultural plant nutrient needs, underpinning its position as a low-cost supplier. It supplies to farmers via retail channels (independent and corporate dealers and agents) and direct to farmer. After exploiting merger synergies from the 2003 merger between Incitec Fertilizers and Pivot in response to increased competition in the fertiliser market, IPL commenced a restructure process in June 2005. This reduced annual costs by $25m by reducing management and administration costs and optimising asset utilisation, while also strengthening customer service. Growth is also targeted through broadening the product and services offering (liquid fertilisers, finance), geographic expansion (domestic and regional) and by participating in agribusiness consolidation. Orica sold its 70% of IPL in May 2006. IPL bought Southern Cross Fertilisers from BHP in August 2006. It acquired 13% of Dyno Nobel in August 2007. Incitec Pivot reported statutory NPAT of $57.15m for the half-year ended 31 March 2007. The result includes individually material items totalling $7.6m after tax. Revenues from ordinary activities were $543.6m, up 37% from last year. Diluted EPS was 113 cents compared to 17 cents last year. Net operating cash flow was $(53.2m) compared to $(66.9m) last year. The interim dividend was fully franked at 69 cents, compared with 22 cents last year.


----------



## Lukeyz

Narsty very fast $3 drop just before 11 am today, and overall a $5 drop since just after the open.

Anyone have any clues why such a sharp fall??

Cheers


----------



## ithatheekret

Lukeyz said:


> Narsty very fast $3 drop just before 11 am today, and overall a $5 drop since just after the open.
> 
> Anyone have any clues why such a sharp fall??
> 
> Cheers




I think it's just the way the stock trades , can do the opposite too , open sharply up and drift back . 

I would just try to stay in sync with it at this stage , be alert to the volumes going through and the  technicals at this stage .

Tapping on $200's door means we're playing poker with the big boys now .

I must admit that when I see a share I'm holding achieve a price that has me explete HFS ...... I tend to lighten the load a little and lock some profit away .

DXL was the latest to attain that , but then again I've done it with OSH before twice ........ and the price kept going , I just don't have the time to look back and wince , it breaks the concentration .


----------



## redwynne

Today I received an ofer from Australian Share Purchasing Corp (ASPC) to buy my shares at $100 each even tho they stated that the market value of each share at the time was $188.36. 

Pray tell why would I want to sell my shares at that price... at half price? Are they crazy or am I missing something here? 

Can anyone shed some light regarding this? Would anyone in their right mind sell their shares at half price? What are the benefits in that?


----------



## Julia

redwynne said:


> Today I received an ofer from Australian Share Purchasing Corp (ASPC) to buy my shares at $100 each even tho they stated that the market value of each share at the time was $188.36.
> 
> Pray tell why would I want to sell my shares at that price... at half price? Are they crazy or am I missing something here?
> 
> Can anyone shed some light regarding this? Would anyone in their right mind sell their shares at half price? What are the benefits in that?



Tear it up/ignore it.   Believe it or not, there are some people who actually do respond positively to this practice.  Perhaps they have inherited the shares, don't usually follow the market, and have no idea of the current price.
Maybe they find owning shares which they don't understand a burden and like the idea of some cash in exchange.  Whatever.   If they didn't get some positive response from these frequent mailouts involving countless companies, they wouldn't continue doing it.

If you look at Announcements for IPL you will see a notice from them mentioning this mail out.


----------



## redwynne

Julia said:


> If you look at Announcements for IPL you will see a notice from them mentioning this mail out.




I did read the announcement but I have never encountered a company trying to buy shares at nearly half price. I find that really odd and didnt realise it may be a fairly common practice.

Its a bit like the bogus bank email spam... try hard enough, some people will fall for it and one can make a quick buck or more.

Surely this practice shouldnt be allowed!

PS I cant believe that a share register is a public document that one can buy to obtain details of shareholders. Now that I find a joke. Whatever happened to the Privacy Act?? If I want people to spam me in this fashion then I will make my home number unsilent and list it in the white pages for starters.


----------



## rx1

With IPL's acquisition of DXL, it would create a CGT event. Does anyone know in this particular situation, what the cost base of IPL for CGT calculations for DXL holders?

They've got a class ruling out CR 2008/38, doesn't really spell out what the cost base of IPL is.

Any help to get a better idea of the calculations would be greatly appreciated.

Thanks


----------



## bowser

redwynne said:


> Today I received an ofer from Australian Share Purchasing Corp (ASPC) to buy my shares at $100 each even tho they stated that the market value of each share at the time was $188.36.
> 
> Pray tell why would I want to sell my shares at that price... at half price? Are they crazy or am I missing something here?
> 
> Can anyone shed some light regarding this? Would anyone in their right mind sell their shares at half price? What are the benefits in that?





David Tweed - he's made a fortune from people being ignorant about the value of their shareholdings...

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/David_Tweed


----------



## ithatheekret

rx1 said:


> With IPL's acquisition of DXL, it would create a CGT event. Does anyone know in this particular situation, what the cost base of IPL for CGT calculations for DXL holders?
> 
> They've got a class ruling out CR 2008/38, doesn't really spell out what the cost base of IPL is.
> 
> Any help to get a better idea of the calculations would be greatly appreciated.
> 
> Thanks




The explanation of the ATO class ruling in regards to the acquisition .

http://law.ato.gov.au/atolaw/view.htm?docid=CLR/CR200838/NAT/ATO/00001


----------



## Dezza

Any tax people out there to put that in English? 

Is this a good thing tax-wise for those who bought DXL on float at $2.37 back in April 2006 and rolled over to the full share offer?


----------



## Julia

redwynne said:


> PS I cant believe that a share register is a public document that one can buy to obtain details of shareholders




Isn't it to your advantage to be able to know the major shareholders in a company and who is buying or selling?


----------



## michael_selway

ithatheekret said:


> I think it's just the way the stock trades , can do the opposite too , open sharply up and drift back .
> 
> I would just try to stay in sync with it at this stage , be alert to the volumes going through and the  technicals at this stage .
> 
> Tapping on $200's door means we're playing poker with the big boys now .
> 
> I must admit that when I see a share I'm holding achieve a price that has me explete HFS ...... I tend to lighten the load a little and lock some profit away .
> 
> DXL was the latest to attain that , but then again I've done it with OSH before twice ........ and the price kept going , I just don't have the time to look back and wince , it breaks the concentration .




Hm its all time high is $200.00

It will be intersting to see what the price of this one will be in hte not too distant future

*Earnings and Dividends Forecast (cents per share) 
2007 2008 2009 2010 
EPS 401.6 1,148.5 1,370.6 1,347.0 
DPS 300.0 702.0 822.0 807.9 *

thx

MS



> Date: 6/6/2008
> Author: Peter Wells
> Source: The Australian Financial Review --- Page: 31
> Australian stocks with exposure to the agribusiness sector have performedstrongly in 2008. This is exemplified by the stellar performance of IncitecPivot, which peaked at around $A196 in early June 2008. In contrast, thefertiliser group's stock was trading at around $A60 in mid-2007.Agribusiness stocks have benefited from the boom in the price of softcommodities, and analysts say that structural changes in the agriculturalindustry will make the sector increasingly attractive to investors


----------



## Gekko

Monsanto quarterly profits just out. Cost up, but compensated by higher revenues.

Upped guidance for full year which by memory has 1 quarter to go for Monsanto.


----------



## ithatheekret

Topped up today , well sort of , I missed the 172.60 area , but managed to fill at an average of 173.11 .

I've got a 207 in my rig Micheal , but I think they are going to do something soon , nothing known , just a gut feeling mate .


----------



## Muschu

I'm a relative newbie and don't hold IPL but have been watching it.  I have read contrasting articles about the company - One suggesting it almost has a licence to print money and the other that it has a higher than average degree of risk attached.
Last week the SP dropped significantly only to make a bit of a re-bound on Friday.
Clearly the company has has exceptional gains these past 2 years. I wonder if it is at some sort of cross-roads now or is it just responding to the market volatility as many [most?] other shares are?
Is there a combined FA / TA view out there as to where IPL is heading over the coming months?  Or is this just too crystal-ball like?
Regards
Rick


----------



## Lukeyz

Wow, I really didn't see this $25 bashing coming 2 days ago. They might have a bit of a Tax bill coming, but surely it's not big enough to justify these falls in the sp. Or is it commodity price related.. Anyone feel the need to correct me??


----------



## grace

Lukeyz said:


> Wow, I really didn't see this $25 bashing coming 2 days ago. They might have a bit of a Tax bill coming, but surely it's not big enough to justify these falls in the sp. Or is it commodity price related.. Anyone feel the need to correct me??




I see a couple of brokers giving the sell order on it.  Also, some people find it easier to lock in a profit than a loss.  I'm guilty of it too sometimes!


----------



## r0ma

Also curious whats going on with this one? last week it reached $190 and hit as low as $159 this morning, from what I can see ING & anz have sold off?


----------



## Lukeyz

Thanks for the input Grace. You provide great information in all your posts. I'm still surprised that the broker downgrades caused such a heavy fall. Is it not considered too bad? Just so quick too...


----------



## Julia

I don't think it's just broker downgrades.  Possibly more that the excellent growing season is now over, the weather patterns 'going forward' (always wanted to say that) are not looking good, and thus the medium term outlook for the fertiliser business is less rosy than 12 months or so ago.

Also, I'd guess a lot of people - with the uncertain outlook for the markets for the next year or more - are locking in their profits.  I sold IPL yesterday, certainly giving back some profit, but not as much as if I were still holding today.


----------



## legs

anyone care to suggest why this is taking a dive? I dont hold but Father does as most farmers do. Would like to give him an explanation as to why.


----------



## grace

From what I hear over the Eastern side of the country of the west (and please WA people correct me if I'm wrong), quite a considerable number of farmers did not get their Winter crop planted (no planting rain) and now it is too late.  As WA farmers are big users of fertilizer, I'd say a bit of impact on sales there.  Just a guess from a farming perspective.


----------



## chops_a_must

grace said:


> From what I hear over the Eastern side of the country of the west (and please WA people correct me if I'm wrong), quite a considerable number of farmers did not get their Winter crop planted (no planting rain) and now it is too late.  As WA farmers are big users of fertilizer, I'd say a bit of impact on sales there.  Just a guess from a farming perspective.



Can't see why that would be the case.

We've had the best rains in years. So yeah..............................................................

Would be more to do with the grain prices tanking.


----------



## grace

chops_a_must said:


> Can't see why that would be the case.
> 
> We've had the best rains in years. So yeah..............................................................




It was on our rural news ABC Radio. Perhaps they were exaggerating.  Perhaps I didn't listen to the story correctly.  You would know though living over there.  Someone I know will know exactly where (my hubby, the farmer).  Shall report back.  I know somewhere missed planting their Winter Crop.


----------



## Caliente

Wow - incitec pivot has taken an absolute hammering today. It's now on my watchlist for high quality stocks taking a battering. Only problem is the P/E ratio is still high - which still leaves considerable downside risk, even for such a defensive stock. 

People gotta eat...

If this drops to 130's I'll definitely snag a parcel.


----------



## michael_selway

Caliente said:


> Wow - incitec pivot has taken an absolute hammering today. It's now on my watchlist for high quality stocks taking a battering. Only problem is the P/E ratio is still high - which still leaves considerable downside risk, even for such a defensive stock.
> 
> People gotta eat...
> 
> If this drops to 130's I'll definitely snag a parcel.




Hi deinfitely on a buy list now

*Earnings and Dividends Forecast (cents per share) 
2007 2008 2009 2010 
EPS 401.6 997.1 1,378.0 1,422.0 
DPS 300.0 624.3 846.7 832.3 *



> Date: 16/7/2008
> Author: Tracy Lee
> Source: The Australian Financial Review --- Page: 50
> Australian fertiliser company, Incitec Pivot, will incur a smaller loss thanexpected from a plant shutdown. In June 2008, it estimated that the cost ofrepairs and lost production at an ammonium phosphate plant would cut net profitby $A58 million. On 15 July, Incitec said that repairs were completed ahead ofschedule and normal operations had resumed, so that the loss would only be about$A49 million. This caused the revision of earnings estimates by some analysts.Incitec's share price rose by $A1.78 to $A179.78




thx

MS


----------



## grace

grace said:


> It was on our rural news ABC Radio. Perhaps they were exaggerating.  Perhaps I didn't listen to the story correctly.  You would know though living over there.  Someone I know will know exactly where (my hubby, the farmer).  Shall report back.  I know somewhere missed planting their Winter Crop.




It was Northern rain belt in WA that missed out on planting rain, so no fertilizer went in there.  That was on ABC radio Southern Qld.  Does that sound right Chops?

Perhaps though, I think the street talk got this one down today.  Seems that the AFR had them having to raise capital per the gossip column.



> Company declines to comment on AFR Street Talk column citing speculation that Incitec may decide today to raise capital and whether or not to go ahead with Moranbah plant.




If it's a rumour, I didn't start it.....


----------



## r0ma

The Low hit $123 today, Any indication of whats gonig on with this one? it has lost 30% in a matter of 2 months.


----------



## Andy_aus

Oil prices have fallen leading many to believe that the commodities boom is over amongst other things.

Fertiliser stocks on US xchange have also been hammered.


----------



## 3 veiws of a secret

Andy_aus said:


> Fertiliser stocks on US xchange have also been hammered.




I think your spot on with your thread.....OR should I say I agree with you!
Also I was watching IPL @ $123 dollars the other day,but it sure did recover quickly. I'm looking for another opportunity at that sort of level......I just wonder if NUF is on a similar trading decline as IPL????? hmmmmmmmmmm


----------



## michael_selway

3 veiws of a secret said:


> I think your spot on with your thread.....OR should I say I agree with you!
> Also I was watching IPL @ $123 dollars the other day,but it sure did recover quickly. I'm looking for another opportunity at that sort of level......I just wonder if NUF is on a similar trading decline as IPL????? hmmmmmmmmmm




Hm it looks good when price drops so low

*Earnings and Dividends Forecast (cents per share) 
2007 2008 2009 2010 
EPS 401.6 1,057.8 1,444.8 1,475.7 
DPS 300.0 633.6 827.0 837.0 *



> Date: 29/8/2008
> Author: Sophie Morris
> Source: The Australian Financial Review --- Page: 24
> Liberal Party senator Bill Heffernan has criticised the Australian Competition& Consumer Commission. It had stated that global economic pressures are thereason for the doubling of Australian fertilizer prices since 2007. A Senateselect committee will look closely at the role of Incitec Pivot in theAustralian market, as it supplies 70% of the country's fertilizer









Thx

MS


----------



## redwynne

Does anyone have any thoughts or opinions on the possible share split? How does one know if it is in the interests of the shareholders or not?

Noob Shareholder


----------



## PhoenixXx

Last week i noticed that the code was changed to IPLDA instead of IPL. And absolutely no joy here post-split


----------



## rthakkar

With the increasing number of job losses, more and more people will be sitting at home. This will increase the consumption of food through out the world. 
I.e. There will be increase in demand for food and faster production ( growing population and growing number of bums )
These factors are in favor of Incitec Pivot being the world's top supplier of fertilizer


----------



## prawn_86

rthakkar said:


> With the increasing number of job losses, more and more people will be sitting at home. This will increase the consumption of food through out the world.
> I.e. There will be increase in demand for food and faster production ( growing population and growing number of bums )
> These factors are in favor of Incitec Pivot being the world's top supplier of fertilizer




While i can see what your saying, i think it would take a long time for any sort of 'flow' for somethings as far removed as that.

And whats to say that people eat more when they are unemployed?

Drawing a long bow imo...


----------



## chops_a_must

I think a lot of you guys are missing the point.

The issue seems to be the short term funding.

I said at the time, IPL was being a charity for DXL, and it looks like I was right.

Horrible decision. Absolutely horrible. Overpaid for a crap asset that has loaded them up with debt.


----------



## gav

I've had my eye on this one for a little while now.  Down from heights of $200, its now worth $106.40 (before the split) or $5.32 (after the split).

After seeing it got down to $5.32 at one stage today, at 3.30pm I put in a buy order for $5.32 before I went to the gym.  Did not expect it to be filled, but I thought I'd give it a go.  Came back from the gym, not only did it finish right on the low of $5.32, but my buy order also got filled   I almost put in an order for FMG to bring my average down further, but I think I need a bit of diversity.

My parents have made alot off this company, hopefully some of their luck rubs off on me!


----------



## Julia

rthakkar said:


> With the increasing number of job losses, more and more people will be sitting at home. This will increase the consumption of food through out the world.
> I.e. There will be increase in demand for food and faster production ( growing population and growing number of bums )
> These factors are in favor of Incitec Pivot being the world's top supplier of fertilizer



You might like to offer some facts in support of your contention that people eat more if they are unemployed.   I hope you weren't depending on this as a reason to buy.

There's a fair few steps in the chain of production from the use of fertiliser to the plate of the consumer.



gav said:


> I've had my eye on this one for a little while now.  Down from heights of $200, its now worth $106.40 (before the split) or $5.32 (after the split).
> 
> After seeing it got down to $5.32 at one stage today, at 3.30pm I put in a buy order for $5.32 before I went to the gym.  Did not expect it to be filled, but I thought I'd give it a go.  Came back from the gym, not only did it finish right on the low of $5.32, but my buy order also got filled   I almost put in an order for FMG to bring my average down further, but I think I need a bit of diversity.
> 
> My parents have made alot off this company, hopefully some of their luck rubs off on me!



Gav, can you say why you feel this stock is likely to revisit its previous highs, other than hoping it will do as well for you as it has for your parents?

Have you considered, e.g. the effect continued drought will have?


----------



## gav

Julia, I grew up on a dairy farm and know the affects of drought.  I believe IPL has been over-sold, and will bounce back somewhat.  If it bounces back relatively fast, I will sell for a quick profit.  If not, I am prepared to hold.


----------



## michael_selway

gav said:


> I've had my eye on this one for a little while now.  Down from heights of $200, its now worth $106.40 (before the split) or $5.32 (after the split).
> 
> After seeing it got down to $5.32 at one stage today, at 3.30pm I put in a buy order for $5.32 before I went to the gym.  Did not expect it to be filled, but I thought I'd give it a go.  Came back from the gym, not only did it finish right on the low of $5.32, but my buy order also got filled   I almost put in an order for FMG to bring my average down further, but I think I need a bit of diversity.
> 
> My parents have made alot off this company, hopefully some of their luck rubs off on me!




Hi doesn anyone own IPl and also have ETRADE but before the split

If so, does it appears that IPLDA has NOTbeen updated for you still as at today?

thx

MS


----------



## THE BUZZ

Hey guys, breaking my cherry finally and posting, hav'nt been following Ipl 's travels since split commenced, any reasons for the sharp declines apart from overall market negativity?
not holding much but considering picking up some more if price falls further after the drop in the states this morning. [which i'm assuming is already fact]
dow down 3.00%, cheers.


----------



## rthakkar

Julia said:


> You might like to offer some facts in support of your contention that people eat more if they are unemployed.   I hope you weren't depending on this as a reason to buy.
> 
> There's a fair few steps in the chain of production from the use of fertiliser to the plate of the consumer.




Intake of veggies will increase in order to save cash (meat is generally expensive). this works in favor of Incitec

Share prices will reflect this once we have been in slow growth economy for more than a year now, the trend will eventually start emerging the profit numbers will speak for themselves.


----------



## Julia

THE BUZZ said:


> Hey guys, breaking my cherry finally and posting, hav'nt been following Ipl 's travels since split commenced, any reasons for the sharp declines apart from overall market negativity?
> not holding much but considering picking up some more if price falls further after the drop in the states this morning. [which i'm assuming is already fact]
> dow down 3.00%, cheers.



I sold mine at about $180 (equiv. to about $9 with the split)a few months ago after reading more than one analyst report about global growing seasons being over for the time being, and the ammonium nitrate price having peaked for this cycle.

Also had some concerns about the Dyno Nobel acquisition which didn't appear to bring the benefits anticipated.

Gav, a long term hold would seem to make good sense.  Good luck.


----------



## chops_a_must

rthakkar said:


> Intake of veggies will increase in order to save cash (meat is generally expensive). this works in favor of Incitec
> 
> Share prices will reflect this once we have been in slow growth economy for more than a year now, the trend will eventually start emerging the profit numbers will speak for themselves.




Apart from a big input in meat being grain feed?

I got stopped out luckily some time ago, and sold off the free carry.

They were stupid to go after DXL.

I think we'll see this about 3.50, but timing is more important as they now have to find some way to finance their DXL projects in this market. 

Is probably 12 months away from being looked at for me...


----------



## Rastan

man - i am copping an absolute shellacking on this stock - it was recommended to me about 3 months ago at 163 - now its almost half that....


----------



## robert toms

I do not hold..but have watched this one for a long while.
Do you know of any adverse events or reports that have resulted in drop in share price?
Maybe just lack in market confidence ?
Perhaps just profit taking ? 

Any ideas ?


----------



## robert toms

I have just scanned thru one of their presentations,they seem to place a lot of faith in the continued demand from China and India.
Perhaps there is a fear that this demand is slowing ,or not as assured as was the case only weeks ago ?


----------



## tcoates

I am a holder of IPL shares also. Not sure on the fundamentals. 

Putting that aside for the moment...

I can see that it has gone as low ($3.91) as the monthly pivot point (support) today (at $3.88) and presently back above $4. 

Will be interesting to see where it ends the day.

Someone with more knowledge than I can explain the application of these (probably wrong word but "longer term") pivot points.

Tim


----------



## gav

I dont think it has much to do with the fundamentals, more so the market sentiment as a whole.  This one shot up to $200 very quickly, and its falling just as fast.  I bought Monday at close and Im down 20% already.  Maybe I should start a thread called "Gavs picks", that way you guys can short whatever I buy, you'll make a fortune


----------



## Julia

Maybe price of ammonium nitrate has something to do with the falling SP?
I think the fundamentals of IPL may be more complicated than first appear, given different weather conditions and growing seasons around the world.

Or, as Gav says, it might be just a reflection of the overall market.


----------



## chops_a_must

gav said:


> I dont think it has much to do with the fundamentals




Rubbish.

If you read my posts above, and a quick check through their recent announcements it appears that they are having problems with their short term debt.

That is the real issue. They can't fund what they wanted to do with DXL, which has rooted this company.


----------



## tcoates

Or....



> Incitec Pivot (IPL) struggling today – down 9% to 423c – on the back of shares in US rival Mosaic falling 41% overnight after warning the price of phosphate was coming off after spiking in previous quarters. Macquarie Equities maintain their Outperform recommendation on the stock and their 944c target price – 123% above the current share price.




(source http://www.abnnewswire.net/press/en/57682/Midday_Market_Roundup_03102008.html)

more (related) info here

http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601081&sid=aMUHCaNwsBTU&refer=australia

Other latest info from

http://www.financeasia.com/article.aspx?CIaNID=85902



> A A$1.68 billion three-year revolver for *Incitec Pivot* and its subsidiaries Incitec Pivot Finance Australia, Incitec Pivot US Holdings and Incitec Pivot Finance LLC has been sealed via mandated arrangers and bookrunners Commonwealth Bank of Australia, National Bank of Australia, Royal Bank of Scotland and Westpac.
> 
> Final allocations saw the bookrunners contributing A$250 million apiece. Coming in as participants were Credit Suisse and UBS, lending A$150 million each, while Citi provided A$130 million. Bank of Tokyo-Mitsubishi UFJ and Rabobank took A$75 million apiece and ANZ and HSBC gave A$50 million each.
> 
> Proceeds are to refinance existing debt and for general corporate purposes.




Tim


----------



## robert toms

I just watched  nightly Business News from US on SBS and they highlighted fertilizer shares.They had all taken a decent fall last night,on slowing demand for their products.


----------



## Miner

robert toms said:


> I just watched  nightly Business News from US on SBS and they highlighted fertilizer shares.They had all taken a decent fall last night,on slowing demand for their products.




Thanks
Marcus in Marcus today has heavily recommended IPL even after it fell and lower fertiliser demand

Tuesday will be a watchful one following what happens at US Senate tonight and banks are going to meet on Tuesday in Australia too

Regards


----------



## gav

gav said:


> Julia, I grew up on a dairy farm and know the affects of drought.  I believe IPL has been over-sold, and will bounce back somewhat.  If it bounces back relatively fast, I will sell for a quick profit.  If not, I am prepared to hold.




Well I was prepared to hold, but after just one week im a bees d**k away from hitting my stop loss.  I set it at 20% because I thought I needed to have a bit of room considering the volatility of the market lately.  Cant believe its only taken a week   I havent used a stop loss before, and on average (on other buys) I'm down 45%.  If I'd used stop losses on my other buys I would have sold out of everything and would be down significantly less.  Although knowing my luck it'll bounce as soon as I sell.  What to do.... 

Also, Commsec still havent taken the money out of my account (i bought last Monday on close).  I thought it was T+3


----------



## gav

Well I got out.  Stopped at 4.25.  If you fail to plan then you plan to fail.  Ive learnt my lesson from not using stops.  And as much as I did not want to, I sold.


----------



## tcoates

Gav,

Well at least you did what you had to do?!?

...not sure whether you had purchased it as a trade or as an long(er) term investment. 

and I can still see it going back down to 3.88 (monthly pivot) before possibly turning around. Does not mean it will turn around. Could even go 3.48 (eek).

for me... I had only dipped my toes into the shallow waters. the stock will reside in the bottom drawer.

Tim


----------



## gav

Tim, I when I bought it had dropped significantly in a short time, and I was hoping for a bounce and maybe a quick 10% profit.  In the past it had dropped to $120 (before the split) and bounced back pretty quickly.  I was prepared to hold medium-long term if the SP didnt move much, but with a 20% loss in just one week I had to cut my losses.  I have made the mistake of not using a stop loss in the past and am down nearly 50% in one of my others.

May not have been the greatest plan, but at least I had the discipline to stick to it.  This market is not kind to newbies!


----------



## cruise61

This will be an interesting week for IPL ,see if they bounce back>

They seem to be a strong company with with massive increase in there atp 

Forecast is strong which paves the way for good buy in time.

Lets see:0)

Roll on Tuesday let the ride continue


----------



## Sean K

cruise61 said:


> This will be an interesting week for IPL ,see if they bounce back>
> 
> They seem to be a strong company with with massive increase in there atp
> 
> Forecast is strong which paves the way for good buy in time.
> 
> Lets see:0)
> 
> Roll on Tuesday let the ride continue



Why are they a strong company cruise?

What forecast are you talking about cruise? As in profit, or distribution to shareholders? 

Good buy in time? Can you please read the code of conduct for the site, we can not give buy or sell recommendations here. 

Cheers,
kennas


----------



## cruise61

Wonder what perpetual are up too ?
Anyone shed some light 

Bit of a rise to today whats to come?


----------



## DionM

cruise61 said:


> Wonder what perpetual are up too ?
> Anyone shed some light
> 
> Bit of a rise to today whats to come?




Could be redemptions from members.  People panicking, cashing in.  PPT forced to sell?

I see AXA also took a bigger position recently.

I am sitting on the sidelines, waiting and watching.  The dividend announcement will give some good indication, I think, as to the health of IPL.  It is looking quite sick at present being so far off it's highs, thought the high $3 range / low $4 seems to be a good area of support.


----------



## cruise61

DionM said:


> Could be redemptions from members.  People panicking, cashing in.  PPT forced to sell?
> 
> I see AXA also took a bigger position recently.
> 
> I am sitting on the sidelines, waiting and watching.  The dividend announcement will give some good indication, I think, as to the health of IPL.  It is looking quite sick at present being so far off it's highs, thought the high $3 range / low $4 seems to be a good area of support.




Nice rise today 11.24%

Maybe because div release is close ?? Or just in line with market recovery?
Either way on the up and thats where we like it 

If rise continues may be a good time to increase portfolio

Hard to see them not having a good year again


----------



## Julia

cruise61 said:


> Hard to see them not having a good year again



Why do you say this?  i.e. can you list the reasons you believe the company will do well, and presumably the SP rise.


----------



## cruise61

Julia said:


> Why do you say this?  i.e. can you list the reasons you believe the company will do well, and presumably the SP rise.




SP rise is only part of the big picture.

Ammonium nitrate  has more than trippled in price in the last 12 months.

Demand for ammonium nitrate exceeds availabilty.

Since IPL aquired Dyna Nobel they have approved the 935mil building of the plant at Moranabah to keep up with forcast demands for ammonium nitrate which will be funded internally.

They have strengthened themselves financially with there 1.6 billion 3 yr bank facility.

Lets face fact they have 65% of the market 

One of there main products ammonium nitrate/phospate has trippled in price

There NPAT for 08 was 33.4% greater than 07 and increasing.

I could go on but thats enuff for me ,i will let you do some research :0)

Hope you did well today and watch out for big brother hes watching us all  expecially on the net


----------



## Julia

cruise61 said:


> SP rise is only part of the big picture.



I imagine the purpose of your buying shares is to make money.



> I could go on but thats enuff for me ,i will let you do some research



I've taken my profit from this and sold when it started falling several months ago.   My post was just an attempt to get you to back up your vague comment.


----------



## cruise61

Julia said:


> I imagine the purpose of your buying shares is to make money.
> 
> 
> I've taken my profit from this and sold when it started falling several months ago.   My post was just an attempt to get you to back up your vague comment.




 Yes i know thats cool ,im glad you did well with IPL 

Will be interesting to see div next month and forcast

Ahh  make money thats the part im missing at the moment  but i doubt im alone at the moment

cheers


----------



## DowJones

I remember when this stock astonishing broke the $200 per share barrier and  I believe that was this year. With the share split (which should have added liquidity to the stock) it would be $10.00 - but the share proce has dropped to $3.xx. 

Besides the GFC, is there any fundamental change to the stock? 
I believe RP and fertilizer hasnt change that much and company is doing a roaring trade. 

What are some of your opinions on this stock going forward?


----------



## Lukeyz

Just wondering what % of IPL production gets exported? Just trying to work out if Low AUD is good or bad for IPL.

Cheers Luke


----------



## Reealjrd

gav said:


> Tim, I when I bought it had dropped significantly in a short time, and I was hoping for a bounce and maybe a quick 10% profit.  In the past it had dropped to $120 (before the split) and bounced back pretty quickly.  I was prepared to hold medium-long term if the SP didnt move much, but with a 20% loss in just one week I had to cut my losses.  I have made the mistake of not using a stop loss in the past and am down nearly 50% in one of my others.
> 
> May not have been the greatest plan, but at least I had the discipline to stick to it.  This market is not kind to newbies!





Hello gav,

Stop loss a very important tool to lock your profits and cut off your losses. Always use your stop loss while trading.


----------



## Miner

DowJones said:


> I remember when this stock astonishing broke the $200 per share barrier and  I believe that was this year. With the share split (which should have added liquidity to the stock) it would be $10.00 - but the share proce has dropped to $3.xx.
> 
> Besides the GFC, is there any fundamental change to the stock?
> I believe RP and fertilizer hasnt change that much and company is doing a roaring trade.
> 
> What are some of your opinions on this stock going forward?




Just for your information IPL got splitted into smaller segments so the $200 actually did not come down to $3.


----------



## gav

Reealjrd said:


> Hello gav,
> 
> Stop loss a very important tool to lock your profits and cut off your losses. Always use your stop loss while trading.




Reealjrd,

Yes you are right, and I'd be sitting on an even bigger loss right now if I didnt use a stop loss...


----------



## Rastan

trading halt - tue 11/11 - no real details given....

---------------------------------------------------------------------------


----------



## tcoates

google

    "incitec pivot"

and go to news and you will have possible reasons.

(The info is out there, just need to find it. Whether it is correct is a different matter.)

Tim


----------



## sammy84

They have gone into a trading halt as it is preparing a capital raising. It doesn't feel like that ago when they announced that capital raising wouldn't be necessary.....


----------



## ndpjai

Hi all

My first post.

What do u think with record profit, record dividend and the 5 for13 offer with DAP prices just falling from the sky?

Pls post ur thoughts.

Jai


----------



## KFC soup

the offer price is at $2.50 that is substantially lower than the currenty market price. 
does anyone think it'll fall to around 2.50-2.60 level?

but at least now they have enough money to pay dividents

though i understand how the explosive market might be down a little, but how is the fertiliser business not carrying things through?

i do remember on tv, ceo says after dyno deal, they still had $500mil+ finance to tap into if they are looking for another aquisition. can that only be used for acquisitions or did the financial crisis to cause a withdrawal?


----------



## zorrro13

I bought 1500 shares just before they stopped trading. Does this mean I will receive a refund of 13/5 or $2.50/share? 

How many shares can I buy at $2.50?  I calculate 577. 

I'm a TOTALL newbie at this


----------



## Sean K

zorrro13 said:


> I bought 1500 shares just before they stopped trading. Does this mean I will receive a refund of 13/5 or $2.50/share?
> 
> How many shares can I buy at $2.50?  I calculate 577.
> 
> I'm a TOTALL newbie at this



Call the company zorro. They'll be helpful I reckon. 

Link Market Services will handle the enquiry:

1300 303 780


----------



## ndpjai

zorrro13 said:


> I bought 1500 shares just before they stopped trading. Does this mean I will receive a refund of 13/5 or $2.50/share?
> 
> How many shares can I buy at $2.50?  I calculate 577.
> 
> I'm a TOTALL newbie at this




Hi

I think U wont get the 5 for 13 shares, Record Date for the Entitlement Offer will be 7.00pm on 14 November 2008, so u should have bought this before trading halt.

But u'll get dividends for the share u bought, i think 19.5 cents per share.

Cheers
Jai


----------



## KFC soup

zorrro13 said:


> I bought 1500 shares just before they stopped trading. Does this mean I will receive a refund of 13/5 or $2.50/share?
> 
> How many shares can I buy at $2.50?  I calculate 577.
> 
> I'm a TOTALL newbie at this




no refund
if u have kept the shares untill 15th nov then u be able to buy 576 maybe 577 shares at $2.50 each
very bad luck mate


----------



## TheAbyss

Given the instos got in at $2.50 IPl is looking ok for a short term trade at $2.50-$2.52 today imo.

Pretty decent floor of buyers (approximately half of the available buyers volume bidding at $2.50) so if there is an opportunity it is around about now for a while at least anyway.


----------



## benn

hello. could someone please help. 

What is the sale price of the dyno nobel shares in the takeover? And what is the cost base of of new incitec shares after the takeover?

i cant find it anywhere

cheers, ben


----------



## tcoates

Does this help...

http://www.incitecpivot.com.au/zone_files/PDF_Media_Release/asx_announcement_130308.pdf

Also note there was a 20 for 1 split recently.

Tim


----------



## benn

thanks Tim. I had already found that but still found it confusing. 

i think i have another link to ATO response which is what i need/what others will need. thanks again

http://www.incitecpivot.com.au/zone_files/PDF_Media_Release/asx_announcement_130308.pdf


----------



## KFC soup

if i remember it correctly, they bought dyno nobel at 2.30 a share a while back. but that doesn't really help you if i don't know the the number of shares sorry


----------



## Sean K

I have IPL at a pe of about 4.9 ish yielding about 10% ish.

My bank is giving me about 5%.

Is IPL earnings going to be effected that much?

Quite a few companies now with pe's around this level. 

Market is factoring in a 60% ish decrease in profits aroundabouts. 

If that does not happen, there's even some short term value appearing, maybe.


----------



## gohawks

Hi Guys,

Very new to the stock market but have been lurking in the forums and enjoying the informative discussions all round.

I have been watching IPL closely and really like them as a buy at the current pricing. The yield is around 11% but I am curious to find out how stable people think there future dividend payouts will be?

Thanks!


----------



## Sean K

gohawks said:


> Hi Guys,
> 
> Very new to the stock market but have been lurking in the forums and enjoying the informative discussions all round.
> 
> I have been watching IPL closely and really like them as a buy at the current pricing. The yield is around 11% but I am curious to find out how stable people think there future dividend payouts will be?
> 
> Thanks!



Well, as I said above the market is factoring in reduced earnings, profit and potential return. Need to do some research on their products and determine how effected they will be. Fertiliser and explosives....Half tied to resources so in a resource downturn yes. Will fertilizer be in less demend? CII a company invested in mining phosphate on Christmas Island with sales in Indonesia and Malaysia has recently advised that they have closed up shop due to the customers cancelling orders. Just one example, but how far that goes and the demand and prices of fertiliser go is up for argument. Check the chart of RWD and MAK for how raw poo products have gone. Ouch. Still, LONG term, I'm looking at this and waiting for a new trend other than into the abyss.


----------



## gohawks

kennas said:


> Well, as I said above the market is factoring in reduced earnings, profit and potential return. Need to do some research on their products and determine how effected they will be. Fertiliser and explosives....Half tied to resources so in a resource downturn yes. Will fertilizer be in less demend? CII a company invested in mining phosphate on Christmas Island with sales in Indonesia and Malaysia has recently advised that they have closed up shop due to the customers cancelling orders. Just one example, but how far that goes and the demand and prices of fertiliser go is up for argument. Check the chart of RWD and MAK for how raw poo products have gone. Ouch. Still, LONG term, I'm looking at this and waiting for a new trend other than into the abyss.




Cheers appreciate the reply. I guess my feeling is people will always need fertiliser (we need to eat right?) but obviously because of the economic downturn and subsequent slowdown in mining explosive sales will and probably have already dropped.

Any ideas how to find what percentage of the business is made up of explosive sales and what percentage of fertiliser sales?


----------



## skc

kennas said:


> Well, as I said above the market is factoring in reduced earnings, profit and potential return. Need to do some research on their products and determine how effected they will be. Fertiliser and explosives....Half tied to resources so in a resource downturn yes. Will fertilizer be in less demend? CII a company invested in mining phosphate on Christmas Island with sales in Indonesia and Malaysia has recently advised that they have closed up shop due to the customers cancelling orders. Just one example, but how far that goes and the demand and prices of fertiliser go is up for argument. Check the chart of RWD and MAK for how raw poo products have gone. Ouch. Still, LONG term, I'm looking at this and waiting for a new trend other than into the abyss.




Just some random thoughts: whilst the demand for fertiliser and explosives are probably independent, their supply are dependent (made of the same stuff...). So a fall in demand on explosives could lead to increased supply of fertilisers and drive down the price.


----------



## Sean K

gohawks said:


> Cheers appreciate the reply. I guess my feeling is people will always need fertiliser (we need to eat right?) but obviously because of the economic downturn and subsequent slowdown in mining explosive sales will and probably have already dropped.
> 
> Any ideas how to find what percentage of the business is made up of explosive sales and what percentage of fertiliser sales?



If I had some time I'd do it myself, but you will find it in their reports. Probably in their last major presentation after their annual report. That'll be burried in their web site some where.

http://www.incitecpivot.com.au/index.cfm


----------



## outback

The price of Nitrogen has halved in the last few months from major historical highs. 

Whilst the price of DAP fertilizer has basically tripled in the last twelve months.

Farmers are saying the DAP is way too dear, so most fertilizer companies a stuck with a pretty large supply of expensive fertilizer.

Farmers won't buy dear fertilizer, suppliers won't drop price until they can sell inventory and import cheaper raw materials.

Downturn in mining will see a major reduction in the need for explosives.


I add all this up to mean IPL, which was pretty overpriced just before the split, will undergo a major revaluation.

At 11% yield on a PE of around 5, it has lotsa room to move.

I'm vewy vewy tempted to go Loooong.


----------



## Sean K

outback said:


> At 11% yield on a PE of around 5, it has lotsa room to move.
> 
> I'm vewy vewy tempted to go Loooong.



Yes, seems to have room to move. A few companies with current pe's about 5. Pick the ones that will come out of this on top and you may do ok long term, but maybe not worst implosion Wayne's 24 horseman case.


----------



## Bluebeard

IPL has continued to fall in price now trading around the $2.30-2.35 range yesterday and today, I have a small stake, *would people be looking to acquire this stock at these levels or would people wait?*

I also have another question, wouldnt it have been a better fit for IPL to look at say Nufarm rather than the Dyno acquisition they made, do people think that the Dyno acquisition was a good acquisition longer term?


----------



## TheAbyss

Immediate issue for IPL is the lost revenue due to Rio pulling their horns in. Nothing else to say for 100 chars


----------



## Sean K

This is similar to a few other charts, where a bottom looks to have appeared.

Or, just a pause for the next capitulation...eeeeek

One to watch for a break up I reckon.


----------



## Julia

Good Grief!   I haven't been watching this since I sold 1.7.08 at $178
(equiv to about $9 after the split).

Has there been a fall in fertiliser prices?  Any other reason for such a sharp fall?


----------



## tcoates

With the split there was 1 for every 5 shares (I think) which moved the price to around $4.50 from $6(ish). Followed by another drop and capital raising at $2.50(ish). 

Fertiliser prices not helping much.

Also dropped due to association (industry group only) with US stocks whose share price was also dropping.

See also -

http://finance.google.com/finance?client=ob&q=ASX:IPL

Tim


----------



## basilio

Does anyway have any thoughts of the effect of IPL's involvement with CNX's trial of syngas production? As I understand it if the CNX trial is successful there is the opportunity for a $1bil plus ammonia plant as a feedstock for IPL's fertilizer/munitions business.

Would this result in  better cost efficiencies and more reliable production?


----------



## nulla nulla

Hhhhmmmm....if the world reverts to a global war to stimulate the economy and reverse the recession/depression, shares in a munitions manufacturer could be the way to go.......


----------



## Julia

tcoates said:


> With the split there was 1 for every 5 shares (I think) which moved the price to around $4.50 from $6(ish). Followed by another drop and capital raising at $2.50(ish).
> 
> Fertiliser prices not helping much.
> 
> Also dropped due to association (industry group only) with US stocks whose share price was also dropping.
> 
> See also -
> 
> http://finance.google.com/finance?client=ob&q=ASX:IPL
> 
> Tim



Tim, the split was 20 for 1. 
Following is a quote from the news release:



September 5, 2008 - 4:36PM
Advertisement

Shareholders of explosives and fertiliser maker Incitec Pivot have overwhelmingly approved a share split of 20 for one.

The share split will apply to shares held as at 1900 AEST on September 23.

The total number of fully paid shares in Incitec will increase to about 1,217,230,560 from 60,861,528.

"It (the share split) is intended to benefit shareholders by lowering the nominal value of shares, so that the affordability of the shares to retail investors will be increased and facilitate the introduction of a dividend reinvestment plan for Incitec Pivot shareholders," chairman John Watson told a general meeting of shareholders.


----------



## tcoates

You are correct that it was a 20 for 1 split. But I also got an additional 50 shares out of it?!? (I had dipped my toes in before the split)

Unrelated, when they went to the market for additional capital, the shares were offered at a substantial discount to the current price at that time.

Tim


----------



## JTLP

From 60 million shares to over 1 billon? 

I hope everyone held onto their shares and didn't sell...that's a hell of a lot of liquidityyyyyyyyyyyyyyyy

Do not hold IPL...was looking to but didn't like the cap raising or t/o over Dyno


----------



## Julia

JTLP said:


> I hope everyone held onto their shares and didn't sell...that's a hell of a lot of liquidityyyyyyyyyyyyyyyy




Why would you hope people held onto their shares?   I'm very glad I sold mine, given that they're now little more than a quarter of the value at which I sold.

Tim, what was the deal that meant you got the extra 50 shares?


----------



## tcoates

> Tim, what was the deal that meant you got the extra 50 shares?




I could bore you with the history. BUT WONT.

I doubled checked my chess statements, and there was/is no extra 50 shares.

Apologies for any confusion. 

Tim

PS. Will double check emails next time for accuracy of information.  (really stupid now)


----------



## JTLP

Julia said:


> Why would you hope people held onto their shares?   I'm very glad I sold mine, given that they're now little more than a quarter of the value at which I sold.
> 
> Tim, what was the deal that meant you got the extra 50 shares?





Ahh sorry Julia...I meant post split! Not like held them from $200 all the way down...that's just silly


----------



## numbercruncher

Julia said:


> Good Grief!   I haven't been watching this since I sold 1.7.08 at $178
> (equiv to about $9 after the split).
> 
> Has there been a fall in fertiliser prices?  Any other reason for such a sharp fall?





Recently Urea was selling overseas for like 300 us bucks a tonne but around 1200 aud retail here - crazy, has to fall here .....


----------



## Go Nuke

Im thinking of increasing my small holding in IPL, but as Kennas said....is this a base forming for a breakout or just another breakdown! 

I personaly doubt it will turn into a breakdown.
Though I threw away the capital raising paper work...what a laugh I found that. If I had the cash I knew I could easily have picked up IPL for less than $2.50.

In my very limited experience with the share market, Ive yet to see a company trade ABOVE the rights issue price after its happened.

Reasons for that vary like current economic climate etc...but the results are the same.
AWC is the latest one off the top of my head for a good example (other than IPL)


I like IPL because of its exposure to both fertilizer (food,farming etc) and now has exposure to the mining industry through DN. So when the mining industry picks up so should IPL, and when fertilizer picks up...so will IPL.

Gee i figure if the stock can get to $200 during the worst drought in history, then I'm sure they can survive the future.

ps (I'm taking a long term view of this stock...investor type long term, not trader  )


----------



## Sean K

Go Nuke said:


> Im thinking of increasing my small holding in IPL, but as Kennas said....is this a base forming for a breakout or just another breakdown!



Could also meander sideways for some time, as many predict the market will do, but LOOOONG term looks good to me. Just a matter of time I reckon.


----------



## outback

I gone long. Yield alone will keep me satisfied for awhile.           Gratuitous post lengthening in progress.


----------



## Julia

JTLP said:


> Ahh sorry Julia...I meant post split! Not like held them from $200 all the way down...that's just silly



JTLP, I must be silly and just missing your point.  I don't get what you mean at all.   Obviously they didn't fall from $200 down to $2.50.
Just to use my own experience as an example my sell price (pre-split)
was approx equivalent to about $9 (post split).  Given that the SP at the time I made that post was somewhere between $2 and $2.50, why would you be grateful that you'd held onto them?

Why wouldn't you take your profit and exit instead of holding on into that fall?


----------



## JTLP

Julia forgive me...it's probably only in my mind that it makes sense 

I'm talking post split and if everyone just decided to drop there shares with a billion on issue that is a lot floating around. 

This is probably making no sense and i'm probably looking quite the fool so let's roll on! 

On a serious note...do IPL intend to hold that divvie? 11.3% at the end of day trading fully franked...seems rather generous?


----------



## naddis01

numbercruncher said:


> Recently Urea was selling overseas for like 300 us bucks a tonne but around 1200 aud retail here - crazy, has to fall here .....



I beleive that the price of urea has ~ halved recently after farmer groups were considering importing their own fertiliser for the up coming winter season. Funny what a little competition can do.


----------



## michael_selway

naddis01 said:


> I beleive that the price of urea has ~ halved recently after farmer groups were considering importing their own fertiliser for the up coming winter season. Funny what a little competition can do.




yeah not bad at all







*Earnings and Dividends Forecast (cents per share) 
2008 2009 2010 2011 
EPS 55.5 49.1 53.0 53.7 
DPS 26.8 29.0 33.0 31.5 *



> Date: 22/12/2008
> Author: Sid Maher
> Source: The Australian --- Page: 4
> Direct Farm Inputs partner, Leighton Huxtable, is expected to appear before aSenate committee in early 2009 to discuss falling fertiliser prices and deaththreats he received after announcing plans to undercut major rivals. Sharp pricefalls in the wake of Direct Farm's entry into the Australian market haveraised new allegations of monopoly behaviour
> 
> Date: 15/12/2008
> Author: David Ciampa
> Source: The Australian Financial Review --- Page: 22
> Incitec Pivot, Keycorp, National Australia Bank and the ANZ Bank are among thelisted companies that will hold annual meetings in the week beginning 15December 2008. Meanwhile, Macquarie Group and Fisher & Paykel Appliancesshareholders will receive interim dividends





thx

MS


----------



## Myron

It's gone thru the 2.6 mark...and is now trading around 2.66..
Any ideas on this guys?  

P.S I am very new to the market..


----------



## Julia

Myron, have you read through the thread?   That should make clear what ideas various people have about the stock.


----------



## Go Nuke

I heard on the business channel today that it was becasue one of U.S.A's largest seed producers (something like that) doubled its profit and said farmers will still buy even with a slow down.


----------



## Dezza

Investors didn't like their 2009 update very much. Lots of stops being triggered today. Disappointing to say the least.


----------



## Sean K

Dezza said:


> Investors didn't like their 2009 update very much. Lots of stops being triggered today. Disappointing to say the least.



Pretty average news, but not completely unexpected.

Looks overdone initially and a knife catching opportunity perhaps.


----------



## Dezza

VWAP still hovering around $1.85 at present with approx 27m shares traded..

You going to catch the knife Kennas?


----------



## legs

Surely a great buying opportunity..as long as their readjusted forecast is within cooee of what will happen..


----------



## Sean K

Dezza said:


> VWAP still hovering around $1.85 at present with approx 27m shares traded..
> 
> You going to catch the knife Kennas?



Not yet. I might have on the open but I wasn't watching unfortunately. Will be interesting to see how it goes through the day and EOD. From my anecdotal experience a big knee jerk sell off day will be followed by a bit of a dead cat. No data to back that up, just a perception. Perhaps this can be a test case?


----------



## Dezza

Alrights, I couldn't resist and popped a few bucks on it just for fun. Let's see how it goes over the next 3 days.


----------



## gfresh

Ouch.. my hands are bloody  Catching knives a bad idea. 

Valuation seems way under value though, even given circa $400M NPAT is somewhere near 30cps.

So much for those that bought in the placement. No reward for them, just a shafting. Surely 1 month ago the board were aware of the likely development for 2009 ? Shifty..


----------



## Sean K

I've bloodied my hands at $1.705 for some fun too.

Love blood!

:samurai:

Gee I must be bored.

This is the time when the cat actually is dead, and I'm eating it's whiskers for the next month...


----------



## Bolivia

In at 1.74

Margin calls galore going on atm. Interesting to see where this goes over the next few days.

You're right, this will be an interesting test case. I just had to be a part of it!

GL


----------



## gohawks

Also couldn't resist a small bite.

In at 1.68, will be fun to see what comes of IPL in the next few days.


----------



## Sean K

gohawks said:


> Also couldn't resist a small bite.
> 
> In at 1.68, will be fun to see what comes of IPL in the next few days.



OK, at least we'll all be bleading together for a bit. 

Don't forget to sell when you've made your profit, or when the pussy is road kill! 

Conserve capital in this world.

Exits rule!


----------



## skc

Not too many bouncy cats recently. Boral and Leighton are good examples. On the positive note, Sims (SGM) was a cat with still some lives left. 20% fall on profit warning followed by 10% bounce.

Good luck.


----------



## bigdog

ASX ANN today
03/02/2009  	 09:00   	   	2009 Update
http://www.asx.com.au/asx/statistics/showAnnouncementPDF.do?idsID=00924256

2009 Update Incitec Pivot Limited (ASX: IPL) today announced that, while the business performance for quarter 1 2009 (October – December 2008) had been in line with expectations, the outlook had deteriorated materially in January 2009. This is a result of the significant slowing of the global economy, with the US economy now in recession and, importantly, Asian economies have followed rather than being decoupled.  

“January 2009 has seen a slower than expected pick up in international demand for fertiliser. Consequently, while we believe fundamentals remain strong and markets will eventually improve when demand returns, recent developments indicate that this may not occur until the second half of calendar year 2009, after the Australian winter crop planting window.  This view is consistent with the news flow from major international industry participants released in January” said Managing Director & Chief Executive Officer, Julian Segal.  

In the Dyno Nobel explosives business, the North American business has slowed, with coal production cutbacks in the Powder River Basin and accelerating softness in the quarrying and construction sector. In Australia, 2009 demand is now expected to be on par with 2008 and the actions taken by mining companies, in response to the global economic situation, have directly impacted forecast ammonium nitrate (AN) demand growth in the medium term.  

The forecast lag in Queensland AN demand growth pushes the demand and supply balance out 12 months to 2014 rather than 2013. Consequently IPL has reviewed the implications for the off-take loading of the planned 330kt Moranbah AN facility. 

2009 Profitability based on current spot prices Consistent with the developments in January, IPL’s 2009 earnings are likely to be adversely impacted. Assuming current market conditions prevail, and taking into account the difficulty in forecasting expected full year earnings in the current economic environment, 2009 full year net profit after tax (NPAT) before individually material items is likely to be circa A$450M. Individually material items, primarily relating to the Velocity efficiency program, are likely to be an after tax cost of A$50M. 

Key assumptions underpinning the forecast are average Di-Ammonium Phosphate (DAP) pricing of US$410/t and Urea pricing of US$300/t and A$/US$ exchange rate of 70 cents.  Based on the revised forecast, the profit sensitivities are: 
• +/-US$10 DAP price = +/- A$12.9M EBIT 
• +/-US$10 Urea price = +/- A$6.1M EBIT 
• +/-1 cent A$/US$ = +/- A$15.9M EBIT   

Pricing and market conditions may vary from these assumptions.  They should therefore be used with care.


----------



## Sean K

skc said:


> Not too many bouncy cats recently. Boral and Leighton are good examples.



I'm not sure if they were knives or baloons rapidly falling to ground....

This could go anywhere really. It's past couple of major drops have had some recovery and then further failure. The volume today looks like total capitulation to me. 73m shares exchanged...eeeek!

My money's on black, which means ... um, I'm not sure. Go heads!!!

LOL


----------



## kirtdog

ouch what the hell happened  that is so **** i defo bought in at the wrong time.........................


----------



## Bluebeard

I bought a decent sized parcel at $1.71 today. Hopefully it all comes good over time. I waited a long time to be able to get a decent sum of IPL at these types of levels. Good luck to all of us who took the plunge today.


----------



## Sean K

For those that have bought expecting a dead cat today or a gap up bouncing cat on the open tomorrow, it's time to make decisions. Risk holding overnight fearing an implosion overseas or more bad news here, compared to the theory that this was an overraction that will bounce.

Place your bets!



For those that see the industry recovering in 2-190 years, good luck too. 



The close may tell a little story for short termers..


----------



## gfresh

I expect a higher price tomorrow .. Massive volume of 99M today, and price fell another ~11.8% from open price, but it came back to close at $1.78 = 3.9% down on open price ($1.85). Tail indicates support. 

That's either a lot of churn... or more likely must have been many buyers, taking shares from holders who finally threw in the towel. Price would not have closed near open price without heavy buying.  

My thinking anyhow, I am often wrong on these things!


----------



## Bluebeard

I purchased IPL for the long term. People need to eat, farm animals need to be fed, and IPL fertilizer business goes to that end, also this stock was trading at $10 post 20/1 split from what I understand. Anyway everyone should do there own research, Im no expert, hoping that in time, Ill have a look at the price and it would have risen to decent levels price wise.


----------



## rcm617

Bought in today in what looks to me like an overreaction. Most of the negative news about fertilizer prices was already known to the market. Prices have been stabilising the last few weeks and farmers would have run down most of their stocks and have to start buying again so can only go up from here, especially with a lot of the overseas companies cutting back on production. The dollar is already well below the 70c mentioned so at todays price would add $100m to the profit and I think more likely to go down than up with our interest rates dropping. Still one of the lowest cost fertilizer producers on a world scale.


----------



## gohawks

kennas said:


> For those that have bought expecting a dead cat today or a gap up bouncing cat on the open tomorrow, it's time to make decisions. Risk holding overnight fearing an implosion overseas or more bad news here, compared to the theory that this was an overraction that will bounce.
> 
> Place your bets!
> 
> 
> 
> For those that see the industry recovering in 2-190 years, good luck too.
> 
> 
> 
> The close may tell a little story for short termers..





I'm in for the 190 years + scenario! :

No idea how it will play out for me but we will see i guess.

Good luck to all, a pretty nice close for us in the end.


----------



## Sean K

In two minds on the close. Was OK, but would have liked it up another 5% ish to be really bullish on the open tomorrow. The volume looks like absolute total capitulation. The immediate must sellers have gone. Not to say there may be more out there but geeeesh!! I'm taking a pluck now but I think punters will assume a knee jerk and a gap up in the am. Too late for anyone to get in perhaps, or out! eeeeek! 

Not sure how much the US will effect it on the open.


----------



## dirty_harry

Looks oversold to me, I feel sorry for the people being forced out at these prices. I'm holding.

- I'm looking for a large run up in commodities sometimes within 2 years, led by energy and agriculture. This will be very positive for fertiliser and explosives prices. In the meantime, if they can still make 400-500mill profit, i.e. PE less than 10, then it's fine to wait. 

- The market for many things is in shock, but depletion of nitrogen in soils of arable land is one of the long term problems the world is facing. India are huge buyers later on for example.

- Low fertliser prices are due to the current extremely depressed grain prices. But grain stocks are low. Farmers will reduce production, and there will be huge food shortages at some point causing catastrophe is some countries.

- In the long term, food and energy will make up a much larger percentage of people's budget than in the past.


----------



## Go Nuke

Yeah Im sorry guys..I should have told you I was throwing $5K into this last week...then you all would have known to go short!

Oh well. This is for my retirement in about 2050.


----------



## Dowdy

I like this company and the fundamentals aren't impared but since it reached a low of 1.63 today, i'll buy when it reaches that price


----------



## Dezza

I'm shining up my steel balls and hoping for a positive start to tomorrow's price. If not, as long as it doesn't gap down again and by-pass my stop-loss position then I guess it'll be alright. 

*keeps buffing and shining* 

Good luck to those who held overnight as well!


----------



## gav

Dezza said:


> I'm shining up my steel balls and hoping for a positive start to tomorrow's price. If not, as long as it doesn't gap down again and by-pass my stop-loss position then I guess it'll be alright.
> 
> *keeps buffing and shining*
> 
> Good luck to those who held overnight as well!




LOL!  Wouldn't you be better off going to the casino and putting it all on black?

Best of luck for tomorrow, hope it works out for you


----------



## Family_Guy

Yep, i jumped on at 1.68 after a mate called me to tell me about it. We'd been trading it in the 2.30-2.70 range and as it came down towards 2.60 yesterday, i almost jumped on........i didn't, so, thats 1 to me and 3 to the markets for Feb so far.


----------



## paulchow2k

Family_Guy said:


> Yep, i jumped on at 1.68 after a mate called me to tell me about it. We'd been trading it in the 2.30-2.70 range and as it came down towards 2.60 yesterday, i almost jumped on........i didn't, so, thats 1 to me and 3 to the markets for Feb so far.




yes. Holding over night! Gaped up at settlement so I'm thinking this will open a bit higher tomorrow morning. We shall see.

Paul


----------



## Ardyne

Ive learnt my lesson b4 and am steering well clear


youre all nuts......good luck....

GO IPL GO


----------



## joeyjoejoe

im not feeling it guys, although since im not invested one way or the other i hope im wrong for everybodys sake..

i predict some spinifex blowing through the market depth 2mrow. after todays heavy trading.. i think if its green it will be between 1.78 and 1.85

or if its red. it could get to 1.70

i think, like FMG, it will linger at the 1.80-2 range for the next 1 or 2 months.

okay so it fell 30% so what are we looking to make profit on it?? 10% .. 15% at best...

i could probably think of some better shares to gamble on to try and get 15% quickly.. cause really thats what it is.. a gamble

im not saying there is anything wrong with that. good luck to all.

ill be watching the pre open closely 2mrow.. to be honest i missed this one this morning.. i mainly spend my time looking at stocks on the move (rising) than search for falling stocks.

as gfresh pointed out the share price fell 3.9% from the open price.. announcement factored in. so all things being equal with the announcement factored in, id expect it to either fall or rise by up to 5%

i mean if you secured any amounts between the 1.63 and say 1.70 id say good luck to u ...and your more than likely be able to cash it in for a profit when you see fit


----------



## Sean K

Well that little experiment hasn't quite gone to plan. Where was the gap up? 

Oh well, might finish up, or down, but I'm outa here for now....

Chau chau!

:bekloppt:


----------



## Dezza

Following right behind you Kennas. Worth a try but at least it didn't open 30% down again. Back to the drawing board for some more fun.


----------



## gfresh

Same.. looking bare, so sold at open. Small loss of 2.77% for me.. may revisit later. :bekloppt: Have to stick to the trade plan - if trade doesn't proceed as expected, get out.


----------



## Bluebeard

didnt this company still make a profit circa $450 million according to the announcement yesterday. looking at the announcement it seems they were also extremely conservative with estimates (although thats just my opinion) I will hold for the medium term.


----------



## nunthewiser

For what its worth , i have entered this today as a bounce trade ONLY , Normal stop loss rules apply


----------



## Sean K

Bluebeard said:


> didnt this company still make a profit circa $450 million according to the announcement yesterday.



Yes, but 27% off target or something. Hence the 30% ish drop. 

I haven't tried to catch it again for a short bouncer, but on the radar for long term picks after final final capitulation....


----------



## Taltan

Stock looks way to cheap so I had a closer look. Does anyone know if they've managed to renegotiate the bridging facility for the cash they borrowed to buy Dyno (Its due May 09)? If they have I would expect that cat to appear next time Wall st rises


----------



## nunthewiser

chug chug chug............the lil engine that could maybe leaving the station ?.or is this it ?..only in for the bounce so chug away me lil hearties

so many questions............


----------



## nunthewiser

Closed IPL trade .........may it run like the wind for holders .... good luck with it if still holding

cheers


----------



## Bluebeard

Incitec Pivot is trading at around the 1.91 mark at the moment, theres more buying than selling volumes, Im still holding.


----------



## gohawks

nunthewiser said:


> Closed IPL trade .........may it run like the wind for holders .... good luck with it if still holding
> 
> cheers




Probably not a bad time to get out. I'm still holding but I'm in for the long haul on this one anyway!


----------



## dirty_harry

I'm holding too. Fertiliser prices are linked to the oil price. I believe in peak oil so it's only a matter of time. IPL has access to cheap gas long term.
It's interesting watching some of the old '60s US movies where there are oil wells as far as you can see. Now they're dry.


----------



## Go Nuke

I hold still after buying at $1.80.
The buy ratio is alot higher than the sell side and I would expect a 3 day rally.

Assuming the DOW doesn't tank tonight.


----------



## Sean K

Go Nuke said:


> I hold still after buying at $1.80.
> The buy ratio is alot higher than the sell side and I would expect a 3 day rally.
> 
> Assuming the DOW doesn't tank tonight.



Nice work GN.

I played it safe which Harry tells me was a wrong move. Should have given the cat a little more CPR to see how it'd go. 

20% bounce since the oversell.


----------



## dirty_harry

kennas said:


> Nice work GN.
> 
> I played it safe which Harry tells me was a wrong move. Should have given the cat a little more CPR to see how it'd go.
> 
> 20% bounce since the oversell.




Hey Kennas,
nothing wrong with playing it safe mate - wish I could have taken that advice last year !! But I do think the bottom is now in for commodities. More confident of that each day now.


----------



## Go Nuke

kennas said:


> Nice work GN.
> 
> I played it safe which Harry tells me was a wrong move. Should have given the cat a little more CPR to see how it'd go.
> 
> 20% bounce since the oversell.




Thx Kennas

Bout time I had a win. Thats my second sucessful "deadcat bounce" with CNP being the first.
Lucky I didnt try that with BNB lol

I sold out today at $2.05. That was my target to just take around 10%.
Besides I dont think it will go a 4 day of green.
I expect it to touch about $2.25 and then sell off.
Thought the buy/sell ratio is looking pretty healthy for a rise.

Perhaps I got out too early, but I had to sell for the money atm and a gain is a gain.

I still think IPL is a great stock just wish I had bought those shares from a  couple of weeks back on Thursday not at $2.50

Oh well


----------



## gfresh

Perpetual was busy buying them at $1.70 - $1.80 it seems on behalf of various super funds, managed funds, etc. Explains the volume that day.

Their 5.03% holding should help put a bit of a base on things for a while.


----------



## Bluebeard

Im sort of commiting to being a long term holder of IPL now. I waited years to get these prices and whilst I had taken some light chunks before hand, I got the parcel I wanted at what I consider  to be a good price going forward. Good luck to all who hold and to those trading. On a dividend yield basis if this company can pay say 30 cents a year then thats a fantastic yield, for those who purchased since the big drop in price.


----------



## Bluebeard

Anyone still holding this stock, its been trading between $1.95 and $2.20, yesterday it closed under $2 if it loses another 10c then maybe it becomes an opportunity to Add.

Is anyone holding this stock after it plunged a while back? 

Id be interested in what peoples views are of IPL and especially at these prices.

Disc. I am a holder of IPL shares.


----------



## babka

Hello Bluebird, yes I do believe in IPL and in its good future. I bought my bulk of shares months ago, when they were hovering around $4.00. Bought a few on Fri and will maybe buy more if price goes lower. I did some fundamental research on IPL (I am not in TA) and I am reasonably happy. Nowadays one can't really do a proper FA, everything is in shambles (PE, PEG, ROI,etc.)


----------



## Bluebeard

What are peoples thoughts on IPL the price is just over the $2 mark, Ive continued to add to my IPL position. Hoping it comes off ... otherwise Im knackered.


----------



## michael_selway

Bluebeard said:


> What are peoples thoughts on IPL the price is just over the $2 mark, Ive continued to add to my IPL position. Hoping it comes off ... otherwise Im knackered.




Hm yeah good to keep an eye on

*Earnings and Dividends Forecast (cents per share) 
2008 2009 2010 2011 
EPS 55.5 29.4 30.9 30.5 
DPS 26.8 16.3 17.5 20.4 *







thx

MS



> Date: 31/3/2009
> Author: Carrie LaFrenz
> Source: The Australian Financial Review --- Page: 19
> Australian fertiliser company, Incitec Pivot, expects its profit to fall, but ithas gained sufficient bank loans. It has forecast a net profit before one-offitems of about $A450 million for the year to 30 September 2009, 32 per centlower than the previous year. It has arranged a loan averaging $A390 million toOctober 2010 with its banking syndicate
> 
> Date: 17/3/2009
> Author: Carrie LaFrenz
> Source: The Australian Financial Review --- Page: 20
> Consolidation of the global fertiliser industry could make Australian-listed Incitec Pivot a takeover target. The outlook for the sector is strong and Incitec's attractiveness is enhanced by the weaker Australian currency and its operations in emerging markets. Three North American companies are examining possible mergers.


----------



## Julia

babka said:


> Hello Bluebird, yes I do believe in IPL and in its good future. I bought my bulk of shares months ago, when they were hovering around $4.00. Bought a few on Fri and will maybe buy more if price goes lower. I did some fundamental research on IPL (I am not in TA) and I am reasonably happy. Nowadays one can't really do a proper FA, everything is in shambles (PE, PEG, ROI,etc.)



You will buy more if the price goes lower?   And more if it goes lower still?
When will you stop buying a falling stock?  When it's down to zero?




Bluebeard said:


> What are peoples thoughts on IPL the price is just over the $2 mark, Ive continued to add to my IPL position. Hoping it comes off ... otherwise Im knackered.



There was good money made from IPL in the last couple of years when it went from about $2 to about $9 (post split prices), but it has been in a downtrend ever since.   I wouldn't touch it unless it showed a clear return to an uptrend.  

Just a suggestion:  consider investing about $30 in Stan Weinstein's "How to profit in Bull and Bear Markets".


----------



## newcrazy

I hold some IPL in my portfolio. It seems that it did not follow the recent market rally. But recovery is not far away I think


----------



## Bluebeard

Julia said:


> You will buy more if the price goes lower?   And more if it goes lower still?
> When will you stop buying a falling stock?  When it's down to zero?
> 
> 
> 
> There was good money made from IPL in the last couple of years when it went from about $2 to about $9 (post split prices), but it has been in a downtrend ever since.   I wouldn't touch it unless it showed a clear return to an uptrend.
> 
> Just a suggestion:  consider investing about $30 in Stan Weinstein's "How to profit in Bull and Bear Markets".




Im making a profit at the current price, a substantial part of my holding in IPL was taken when it tanked a while back. I just decided to take another dip at it at just over $2 ... I'm happy with my holding now and Im a medium to long term holder of IPL stock now.


----------



## Julia

newcrazy said:


> I hold some IPL in my portfolio. It seems that it did not follow the recent market rally. But recovery is not far away I think



Newcrazy, can you explain why you think that a recovery is 'not far away'?
And maybe define 'not far away'.


----------



## Bluebeard

Julia said:


> Newcrazy, can you explain why you think that a recovery is 'not far away'?
> And maybe define 'not far away'.




Yeah, I was also interested about the "not far away" comment.It would be good if we could get an explanation. On another thing IPL now @ $2.12 at time of posting.


----------



## craigj

as a newby to the market this stock seems to bounce up and down 10c each day for a good trading opportunity

looking to get back in again after buying at 1.705 and selling at 2.13 in Feb.

and fertilisers are not a discretionary spend


----------



## Bluebeard

And winter is coming up fast, isnt this about the time when farmers need to buying fertilisers for there crops?


----------



## michael_selway

Julia said:


> Newcrazy, can you explain why you think that a recovery is 'not far away'?
> And maybe define 'not far away'.




Hi Julia, you appear quite bearish on IPL even at current prices, why is that?

*Earnings and Dividends Forecast (cents per share) 
2008 2009 2010 2011 
EPS 55.5 29.5 30.9 30.9 
DPS 26.8 16.3 17.3 17.0 *



> Date: 31/3/2009
> Author: Carrie LaFrenz
> Source: The Australian Financial Review --- Page: 19
> Australian fertiliser company, Incitec Pivot, expects its profit to fall, but ithas gained sufficient bank loans. It has forecast a net profit before one-offitems of about $A450 million for the year to 30 September 2009, 32 per centlower than the previous year. It has arranged a loan averaging $A390 million toOctober 2010 with its banking syndicate
> 
> Date: 17/3/2009
> Author: Carrie LaFrenz
> Source: The Australian Financial Review --- Page: 20
> Consolidation of the global fertiliser industry could make Australian-listed Incitec Pivot a takeover target. The outlook for the sector is strong and Incitec's attractiveness is enhanced by the weaker Australian currency and its operations in emerging markets. Three North American companies are examining possible mergers.











thx

MS


----------



## Bluebeard

Does anyone know when IPL will be reporting their results, I think it has to be in the next few weeks or inside the next month or so. It will be interesting to see what the result is, it will also be interesting to see if there has been any backlash from farmer anger after last years record profit, primarily from very high fertiliser prices, which after reading articles published some farmers blame IPL. Hopefully that has been overhyped and the results will show the circa $450 million everyone is expecting after the last updates.


----------



## Sean K

Julia said:


> Newcrazy, can you explain why you think that a recovery is 'not far away'?
> And maybe define 'not far away'.



No answer oddly enough.



I'd imagine recovery for this occurs along with the gen commod market, so anywhere between now and 6 years as a rough guestimate. 

People saying 'the world has to eat' might want to look at the charts of other agri stocks to see if that holds up in a general market decline. 

Could well be one of the first to recover of course, although there may be other products that lead a recovery.


----------



## enigmatic

This one has been on my long term play list for a while now trigger condition hasnt been meet so still waiting right now the 250MVA is way to high for my liking would like to see some movement in the northly direction before i jump on board been considering it for trading but haven't dived in yet..

Food is Important I must admit but we already over consume..


----------



## Bluebeard

The markets not doing much today but IPL when I saw it a little while back was up about 8 cents. Going very well. Hopefully it can keep the gains throughout the day.


----------



## Bluebeard

The price has tanked about 6% after they announced that CEO Julian Segal will leave the company and join caltex. Its not a good announcement at all, whats peoples views on this now, and how does it impact IPL going forward?


----------



## Sean K

Bluebeard said:


> The price has tanked about 6% after they announced that CEO Julian Segal will leave the company and join caltex. Its not a good announcement at all, whats peoples views on this now, and how does it impact IPL going forward?



Probably an overeaction.

Caltex? I thought he was going to Sydney for 'family reasons'??

Wonder which gas station he's going to be working at?


----------



## snowking

It was a quick fall from its highs at $2.40 a few days ago.
it seems to be a massive overreaction though imo. Depending on who they announce as the new CEO we might see those prices recovered at some stage in the near future.


----------



## Hedders

Uncertainty of any kind is a killer for companies in times like these. IPL need to fill the void at the helm quickly now the news it out (I wonder how long they've known about Segal's departure). You'd like to think the price will rebound soon enough, especially if the half-year financials remain on track (due in 2 weeks or so?)


----------



## Bluebeard

Incitec Pivot is up about 10c at the moment and is in reach of the $2.30 now. Interesting to note the Orica results as well, Orica's result has pleased the market, hopefully IPL's explosives business has produced some decent revenues and profits- even in the downturn, if so, then IPL may get a lift when it reports, otherwise things could turn downwards.


----------



## adventra05

Not sure if anyone else noticed however after market buys the past few nights of up to and over $1 mill on consequtive nights, convinced me to buy in and hopefully they know the info mon 11th will be well recieved..


----------



## Bluebeard

I noticed that IPL had good auction periods on both Thursday and Friday, it seemed to get good gains during those 10 minute periods, I didnt see volumes however.

I was weighing up my position yesterday whether I should sell out and wait for announcements on Monday, I didnt sell out and Im still in because I got a decent buffer from the prices I paid for my IPLs. Wall Street went ok this morning for us, so a good IPL report may do very good things for the share price.


----------



## Nero64

> Not sure if anyone else noticed however after market buys the past few nights of up to and over $1 mill on consequtive nights, convinced me to buy in and hopefully they know the info mon 11th will be well recieved..





Hi Adventra, 

I noticed this:

4:15:44 PM	2.338	950600	$2,222,502.8	XTOS
2:08:43 PM	2.422	492041	$1,191,723.3	XTOS
2:08:43 PM	2.422	492041	$1,191,723.3	XTOS


Just a couple of things to note. I assume the there was a buyer and seller at the 2.422 price (Note it did not trade at this price on Friday) which accounts for the two entries. 

The entry after the bell at 2.338, how do you know it is not a sell at 2.338?


----------



## adventra05

Good point they could have been sells, although I noticed big ones (similar amounts of 800k several at 2,3,and 500k) from tues onwards at market prices ... as it is a reconstructed stock (RE) all orders are purged daily. Maybe those big ones shown 30min after the auction didn't execute then, given the price, be it sell or buy was above the traded price? they had a different code to those in the auction too... 

Several large ones did go through tues, wed, thurs during the auction thou, which as mentioned means buyers and sellers, I'm hoping for profit takers exiting and those seeking them entering with knowledge?


----------



## Julia

adventra05 said:


> , I'm hoping for profit takers exiting and those seeking them entering with knowledge?



Can you explain what you mean by "those seeking them entering with knowledge"?
It's rather an unusual phrase.


----------



## adventra05

Those entering last week for serious amounts knowing/or willing to stake their money on Monday info having positive effect on sp... many ships leak hopefully thats why some or most of them entered?


----------



## Sean K

adventra05 said:


> Those entering last week for serious amounts knowing/or willing to stake their money on Monday info having positive effect on sp... many ships leak hopefully thats why some or most of them entered?



And a translation of this one? 



Maybe it's some sort of code, like the illuminati or something. You have to read it backwards and upside down to get the true meaning.

I think what may be intended is that the off market buyers were those in the know of positive information regarding the company, and they are interpreted to be the smart money. Since it was happening last week, there mus be an ann coming regarding this positive information.


I wonder if it could just be a couple of institutions swapping shares?


----------



## Bluebeard

Isnt today meant to be the day where IPL reports there figures? I just looked at the ASX site and there are no announcements for IPL at this stage.


----------



## prana

picked some at 2.27 this morning for the breakout ! Run rabbit run. Broken out of support at 2.44 march 17th. Sustainable?


----------



## johannlo

In the v short term (ie today) look at current selling positions

Price Quantity   Number 
254 109,896   25 
255 195,603   30 
256 109,669   25 
257 152,904   23 
258 349,158   24 
259 215,758   24 
260 443,472   30 


That's a lot of sell orders, resistance would appear to be in the high 2.5s


----------



## Nero64

Good luck to those that got the bounce today - High of $2.58

I read its financial report and did not see any good news in there. 2.5 Billion in debt, operating cash flow negative. It will be hard to service that debt in a diminishing operating environment, but things are looking up in China so this could be very favourable for IPL. They gave a profit forecast which I think was well received. The market i think had factored in the result and showed a bit of relief. 

I watched the pre-open market closely and saw it go down to $2.26 or so then open higher. Then i saw strength as the overall market went down. Then it hovered between 2.42 and 2.38. I lost patience and sold  then it started rocketing. 

If it stays above the $2.50 then things could be positive.


----------



## clayton4115

well looking at the performance of it today it looks like a buy on my analysis to $2.90, could be some good things to come for IPL.


----------



## glenn_r

Just heard on our local radio that their closing down the Geelong fertiliser plant at the end of June, 30 odd employees will be paid their full redundancy payments etc so they say, no idea if it has an effect on the SP.


----------



## Sean K

clayton4115 said:


> well looking at the performance of it today it looks like a buy on my analysis to $2.90, could be some good things to come for IPL.



And, some great analysis there Clay, thanks for sharing. 

This is a buy and holders nightmare. Especially if you thought it was a buy in Jul 08. 

However, does that look bottomish to you? $2.00 has been well respected, and it's testing significant resistance at $2.50, possibly pushing through. If she holds above there it would be pretty positive, imo.


----------



## Julia

I'd like to see more of an uptrend before going here.
Happened to hear"The Country Hour" on the radio recently and the outlook is poor for fertiliser prices.
Then there is a new player coming apparently.  Don't know how much effect, if any, this will have on IPL.
http://www.canegrowers.com.au/fertiliser.aspx


----------



## Sean K

Julia said:


> I'd like to see more of an uptrend before going here.
> Happened to hear"The Country Hour" on the radio recently and the outlook is poor for fertiliser prices.
> Then there is a new player coming apparently.  Don't know how much effect, if any, this will have on IPL.
> http://www.canegrowers.com.au/fertiliser.aspx



I read a recent article that went bullish of fertiliser for next year. I'll try and find it post. 

On the uptrend, the $3.00 mark looks important to me for longer term direction.


----------



## shag

yes ravensdown from nz has come in due to the other punters not doing much, so they say.
from what i read, they will treat the phosphate in nz and ship it here.
they basically have the nz market cornered from what i understand.
its a sizable market too, as with so much rain, relatively poor soils, u need to turf a lot of fertiliser around the place.
they are a cooperative, buy stock, get cheaper fertiliser and profit too i guess.


----------



## kirtdog

Any1 beside me think this might be breaking out, resistance at 2.5 in the last 3 months and has pushed to 2.77 now and hopefully keeps going.. Can't say im a pro chart reader but thats what I make of it, the 3 dollar mark would be pretty sweet..

PS dont know how do put up charts and cant be bothered figuring it out at the moment....


----------



## Sean K

kirtdog said:


> Any1 beside me think this might be breaking out, resistance at 2.5 in the last 3 months and has pushed to 2.77 now and hopefully keeps going.. Can't say im a pro chart reader but thats what I make of it, the 3 dollar mark would be pretty sweet..
> 
> PS dont know how do put up charts and cant be bothered figuring it out at the moment....



It did break up through the $2.50 mark and attacked $3.00 resistance and naturally fell back. Lots of resistance there. Lets hope the $2.50 resistance, now support, holds. LONG term this might be a nice buy and hoper, if you think farmers will start fertilising again, and miners restart, um, mining.


----------



## babka

IPL has been kicked out of Norway. Norway prefers phosphates from Morocco. There are other companies on the list that are not welcome there.


----------



## Miner

*Deutsche Bank rates IPL as Sell 22/06/2009 11:21AM*
IPL -- Incitec Pivot Limited
The broker has downgraded forecast earnings for Incitec by 4-14% in FY09-10 to reflect lower fertiliser and explosives demand, lower DAP prices, and a stronger A$. This puts the broker well below guidance.

The broker also notes IPL is trading at a 30% premium to its North American peers and believes the expected Dyno synergies to be overestimated.

All means Sell retained, although the target rises from $1.80 to $1.90.

Target price is $1.90 Current Price is $2.44 Difference$0.54) - (brackets indicate current price is over target). If IPL meets the Deutsche Bank target it will return approximately - 22% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

The company's fiscal year ends in September.

Deutsche Bank forecasts a full year FY09 dividend of 4.00 cents and EPS of 20.00 cents . At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 1.64%.

At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 12.20.

Market Sentiment: 0.2


----------



## Taltan

Stock has now fallen approx 17% in one week. Ok market lost 3% today but what going on. Is it just broker nonsense (the p/e look a respectable 7.46) or is it something more? I accept the broker recomendations but the information they present does not seem to be new.


----------



## Nero64

> Stock has now fallen approx 17% in one week. Ok market lost 3% today but what going on. Is it just broker nonsense (the p/e look a respectable 7.46) or is it something more? I accept the broker recomendations but the information they present does not seem to be new.




Nufarm fell after a proft downgrade. IPL fell with it. 

IPL carries a lot of debt and short term things don't look rosy. 

Nufarm is better value and has a  better balance sheet IMO. However both will benefit when demand picks up and the global economy stabilises. 

If things don't pick up in the next 1-2 years look out for another share issue from IPL to add to its existing 1.6 Billiion shares outstanding.


----------



## Ferret

China announced yesterday it will help some of its export industries by removing export tariffs on their products from 1 July.  

Fertilizer is one product to have the export tariff removed.  Fertilizer prices will drop and this will hurt IPL.


----------



## Taltan

Thanks Nero. IPL looks like one of those your going to have to hold a long time if your going to jump in.


----------



## zebop

Noted in an article recently by the International Fertilizer Industry Association (December 2008), that consumer demand may become more basic with an increase in grain diet. 

In addition the article suggests that the “main variable in 2009 will be the potential for an upswing in fertilizer demand” this will stretch the limits of available supply. My opinion based on the article is that over the medium term the price for fertilizer will increase on the economic recovery and subsequently some upward swing in IPL share price? 

See http://www.google.com.au/search?hl=en&q=fertilizer+price+forecast+2009+2010&meta=


----------



## zebop

For your information I found this today: (IPL AU) gained 1.7 percent to A$2.38, after Australia’s largest fertilizer maker was raised to “overweight” from “equal weight” at Morgan Stanley. 

http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601081&sid=aLYlQ.whyWz4


----------



## enigmatic

What happened to this one Friday Jumped up 10% on no news.. Is there anything coming out soon or is this just normal movement for IPL..


----------



## Sean K

enigmatic said:


> What happened to this one Friday Jumped up 10% on no news.. Is there anything coming out soon or is this just normal movement for IPL..



Chinese have approached Nufarm about a takeover. Same industries. Many would see IPLs depressed price and think it could be oversold. However, world fertiliser prices have been decimated and there seems to be a glut of product. Will be some time before the supply demand ratio goes bck in their favour. Farmers who have put off fertilising must do it next year however or crops will be decimated. So, maybe 2010 is a turn around.


----------



## THE BUZZ

IPL seeing some steady gains towards $3.00, any news of late? Could it be following AUD up or are fertilizer prices moving?

Any thoughts?

Roll on.


----------



## Sean K

THE BUZZ said:


> IPL seeing some steady gains towards $3.00, any news of late? Could it be following AUD up or are fertilizer prices moving?
> 
> Any thoughts?
> 
> Roll on.



Poo products seemed to have stabilised from the odd bits that I've read, but I think this initally moved due to the NUF thing, and some investors looking to oversold growth stocks. Breaking $2.80ish looked important, but $3.00 is also. I can't be confident of a new uptrend till that goes. Looks pretty positive though.


----------



## snowking

it has to break 3.00 for me. it reached a tad over 2.80 just over a month ago and then during the next 4 weeks dived back down under 2.20 before starting the current uptrend.


----------



## zebop

Ok this looks better today noticing that IPL is at $3.03. If this has broken a new resistance at $3 bucks, then whats next, anyone know? Lets hope she don't go back down again


----------



## Sean K

Potentially a significant longer term breakout. Has only just gone through $3.00, but looks pretty strong. Market overcooked and looks like it needs a significant rest which could halt the advance. Risk is back in the market and longer term growth stocks have taken some interest, like IPL. Can't see those rediculous prices for poo products reappearing anytime soon, but longer term, could be a nice pick.


----------



## Sean K

kennas said:


> Potentially a significant longer term breakout. Has only just gone through $3.00, but looks pretty strong. Market overcooked and looks like it needs a significant rest which could halt the advance. Risk is back in the market and longer term growth stocks have taken some interest, like IPL. Can't see those rediculous prices for poo products reappearing anytime soon, but longer term, could be a nice pick.



Broke through, tested support, and continued on. Looks pretty positive long term, but the mystical correction could appear at the drop of a hat.


----------



## THE BUZZ

great to see IPL breaking through $ 3.00 + 
Punted in February this year when dived sub $ 2.00, on average now
gettin' square hope to see support , but do agree possibly/probably some doom and gloom to come overall in the market, thanks Kennas.


----------



## Maxamillion

*IPL down - Why?*

Hi Guys,

I,m new to the forum. I was wondering if anyone knew what is driving IPL price down at the moment. I have a significant stake in this stock and its a bit worrying to see it down at $ 2.82 today. There have been no anouncements for a while.

Max


----------



## Sean K

*Re: IPL down - Why?*



Maxamillion said:


> Hi Guys,
> 
> I,m new to the forum. I was wondering if anyone knew what is driving IPL price down at the moment. I have a significant stake in this stock and its a bit worrying to see it down at $ 2.82 today. There have been no anouncements for a while.
> 
> Max



Max, You really should know that since you have so much in this one particular stock. World fertiliser prices have been decimated during the economic crisis. Plus, they were in a bubble on top of the bubble at the peak of the boom, so coming back to reality really. Future prices are clouded at the moment. The fertiliser bulls say the world can't go another year without adding significantly to fertiliser usage as crop yields will be significantly effected. I say, if you can't buy the ****, then that's the way it is! Low crop yields and we start eating less crops. Simple.


----------



## Maxamillion

Thanks for your reply Kennas,

Yes pricing is off but this stock was $ 3.50 last month at its recent peak, low fertiliser prices or not. Recently there has been large selling. Possible 2.80 will be the floor? I'm just not sure why the large selling all of a sudden.

Max


----------



## skc

Maxamillion said:


> Thanks for your reply Kennas,
> 
> Yes pricing is off but this stock was $ 3.50 last month at its recent peak, low fertiliser prices or not. Recently there has been large selling. Possible 2.80 will be the floor? I'm just not sure why the large selling all of a sudden.
> 
> Max




You should seriously rethink your entry strategy if it was based solely on price last month vs price today, and you know nothing about the company.


----------



## Maxamillion

Thats a bit harsh SKC. I was asking about a stock not my investment strategy. 

But thankyou for your willingness to contribute and thus I will indulge you.

My average entry price was $ 2.95
The company has incredibly low debt after completing capital raisings.
The share is Known for good dividend return baring the last one.
Fertilizer is a good business with continual demand.
The dividends are 100% franked.

These were my main criteria. 

Anyway people got spooked recently or maybe they are shorting?

mAX


----------



## skc

Maxamillion said:


> Thats a bit harsh SKC. I was asking about a stock not my investment strategy.
> 
> But thankyou for your willingness to contribute and thus I will indulge you.
> 
> My average entry price was $ 2.95
> The company has incredibly low debt after completing capital raisings.
> The share is Known for good dividend return baring the last one.
> Fertilizer is a good business with continual demand.
> The dividends are 100% franked.
> 
> These were my main criteria.
> 
> Anyway people got spooked recently or maybe they are shorting?
> 
> mAX




I did say "if" your entry criteria was solely based on price than you should rethink. Clearly you have proved otherwise so my apology that you think I was too harsh...

As a further gesture of goodwill... I have attached my read on the IPL chart. 

The chart points to a potential turnaround in the near timeframe... clear 3 wave retracement having just reached 50% of the last leg of advance.

Good luck with your trade / investment


----------



## Maxamillion

skc said:


> The chart points to a potential turnaround in the near timeframe... clear 3 wave retracement having just reached 50% of the last leg of advance.




Cheers mate,

Now if you where to explain the above statement to me a little I would really learn something today!

If you would be so kind?

Max


----------



## michaeldenna

*Re: IPL down - Why?*



kennas said:


> Max, You really should know that since you have so much in this one particular stock. World fertiliser prices have been decimated during the economic crisis. Plus, they were in a bubble on top of the bubble at the peak of the boom, so coming back to reality really. Future prices are clouded at the moment. The fertiliser bulls say the world can't go another year without adding significantly to fertiliser usage as crop yields will be significantly effected. I say, if you can't buy the ****, then that's the way it is! Low crop yields and we start eating less crops. Simple.




IPL has been funny lately. not exactly sure why. 

max - i also hold a bit of IPL also (used to own dyno nobel a few years back also). from what i can gather, *there is a parliamentary enquiry into fertiliser pricing which has cause a lot of instos to get a bit scared*.

IPL is your traditional cyclical stock. when times are good, farmers will do anything to get the best out of there crop. hence they buy fertilisers, pesticides, etc.when times are bad, farmers either go to low grade fertiliser, manuere or nothing. 

i wouldn't mind some more insight into this as well if anyone can help


----------



## skc

Maxamillion said:


> Cheers mate,
> 
> Now if you where to explain the above statement to me a little I would really learn something today!
> 
> If you would be so kind?
> 
> Max




Based on the wave theory school in technical analysis, prices move up and down in waves. For example, the Elliot Wave theory says that an up leg would advance in 5 waves, with Wave 1, 3 and 5 being in the primary direction (i.e. up) and 2 and 4 being retracements (i.e. down). And that the wave 2 retracement tragets 50% to 62% of the previous up leg. Also, a retracement leg often display a 3-wave characteristics within that leg. There are many more rules and guidelines but I am no expert in this stuff.

Some believe it is BS, tealeaf reading or self fulfilling, while other sees it as gospel. I personally think it has value depending on how it is applied.

Do a search on Elliot wave thoery on this forum for passionate debates. I personally find this thread more interesting and practical.
https://www.aussiestockforums.com/forums/showthread.php?t=15688


----------



## craigj

is ipl truly a cyclical stock or a commodities play on the price of fertiliser ?
i was trading this stock when it was under $2 earlier in the year and i dont think the fundamentals of fert prices or the high cost of the explosives business they purchased have changed


----------



## thierry

Does anyone know any reasons why the stock has jumped 6% or 17c today? 

Does interest rates have anything to do with it? 

Any technical charting reasons to indicate it has bottomed out?


----------



## Maxamillion

All I can say is people must have realised it was way over sold. 

We never got an answer to why it was being sold off so I suppose we will never get an answer to why its now being bought!

Max


----------



## skc

thierry said:


> Does anyone know any reasons why the stock has jumped 6% or 17c today?
> 
> Does interest rates have anything to do with it?
> 
> Any technical charting reasons to indicate it has bottomed out?




From a charting point of view the stock looked poised for a rebound. See https://www.aussiestockforums.com/forums/showthread.php?p=496487#post496487


----------



## thierry

Thanks guys, 
SKC, If I read correctly there were two entry points? Parabolic sar is 2.97 or more aggressive entry at 2.88. Based on the ew wave tech analysis what would be the exit point if I bought in now? It has touched 2.88 now. 

Looks like an interesting thread, I'll read it more often.


----------



## LEONCE

rain rain rain the cockies are happy...reason for the surge  is possible positive dividend to be announced soon.


----------



## Garpal Gumnut

thierry said:


> Does anyone know any reasons why the stock has jumped 6% or 17c today?
> 
> Does interest rates have anything to do with it?
> 
> Any technical charting reasons to indicate it has bottomed out?




Its still in a down trend on the daily chart, a weekly is enclosed which shows $2 as being long term support/resistance.

A fibonnaci retracement from the highs at $9 last year to the lows just below $2 this year, showed good resistance at the 23.6% retracement just recently.

It could go either way technically, but as I said its in a down trend on the daily still. The trend is usually your friend. Also the volume is pretty ordinary if something is happening.

gg


----------



## thierry

3.01 is a barrier it failed to break through today.. so prob heading back down again? any thoughts on this? The range of the day is also quite large(10c).


----------



## thierry

big jump today.. and crashed straight through the 3.01 barrier.. the AGM seems to be the catalyst.. I can't seem to find any other info on the web


----------



## acfnais

Price and moving averages has closed above its Short term moving average. Short term moving average is currently above mid-term; AND above long term moving averages. From the relationship between price and moving averages; we can see that: This stock is BULLISH in short-term; and NEUTRAL in mid-long term.


----------



## McCoy Pauley

I don't pay that much attention to broker recommendations as the cynic in me suggests that brokers have their hidden agendas they're trying to push with those recommendations but I noticed that Macq Private Wealth has put out a "buy" recommendation on IPL whereas Wilson HTM has put out a "sell" recommendation on IPL.


----------



## enigmatic

> I don't pay that much attention to broker recommendations as the cynic in me suggests that brokers have their hidden agendas they're trying to push with those recommendations but I noticed that Macq Private Wealth has put out a "buy" recommendation on IPL whereas Wilson HTM has put out a "sell" recommendation on IPL.




So Macq Private wealth are trying to sell IPL and Wilson HTM are trying to Buy IPL is that what we are suppose to read from the broker recommendations


----------



## Craigomatic

Has been a good start to the year for the SP and the buy side is looking very health today, anyone tracking this and have an explanation for the recent momentum?

I Hold IPL.


----------



## thierry

there appears to be bullish sentiment on the future prices of fertilizer.. also with mining is picking up, then DAP prices will also pick up.. 

besides that i don't know any other reasons.. 

Some brokers have put price targets of high 3s on IPL. 

I also hold IPL.


----------



## thierry

why is this stock getting canned in the last few days? It has underperformed the market significantly!


----------



## skc

thierry said:


> why is this stock getting canned in the last few days? It has underperformed the market significantly!




The same reason that it has outperformed the market significantly in the weeks before that.

It's call beta!


----------



## skyQuake

Apparently Macquarie triggered a stop on this stock and some punter sold 5mil stock yesterday (maybe end of that line?) Prob why its held up so well today.


----------



## Go Nuke

Buyers either came in today and supported the share price ....OR short covering....

Any thoughts on that?

Not quite sold off enough and could go to $3.20 guess wait for Mondays confirmation candle of either 

Or it could rally to $3.50 maybe then continue on its downtrend. 7 day MA crossing down through the 21 day is not so good.


----------



## SuperGlue

It's raining, its falling.

The farmers are dancing in the rain.

IPL looks like breaking.....................................


----------



## kirtdog

why has it dropped so much lately? It's getting hammered.


----------



## asxiq

now that IPL closed down for 5 straight down days , 

here are the look at past instances of IPL being down for 5 consecutive days and the next day change

05-10-2011	-> 10.37
26-09-2011 -> 8.03
23-09-2011	-> -8.00
08-08-2011	-> 2.40
11-03-2011	-> 0.71
21-02-2011	-> 0.00
01-07-2010	-> 0.39
25-05-2010	-> 4.04
19-04-2010	-> 1.27
04-02-2009	-> 4.68
22-01-2008	-> 5.89

Average change of 2.71 % with one being a massive loss of about 8 % , 8 out 0f 10 times the next day it closed up 

disclaimer : no positions at the time of writing 

	2.71


----------



## Bazmate

Righto, finished the day at the high of 3.34....... Interesting watch for Monday morning methinks..

Sorry folks, I don't post very often but this one caught my eye tonight. 

I don't actually have any but the missus has held a small chunk of IPL for many years.

Baz


----------



## Garpal Gumnut

Bazmate said:


> Righto, finished the day at the high of 3.34....... Interesting watch for Monday morning methinks..
> 
> Sorry folks, I don't post very often but this one caught my eye tonight.
> 
> I don't actually have any but the missus has held a small chunk of IPL for many years.
> 
> Baz




Good pick Baz.

Your missus may be on the money.

I read nothing negative in the financial press about IPL.

gg


----------



## Bazmate

Well, that was a disappointment amongst many others...

GG, I'm not sure I've read anything positive either


----------



## pixel

Bazmate said:


> Well, that was a disappointment amongst many others...
> 
> GG, I'm not sure I've read anything positive either




When IPL broke the resistance trendline the second time, I had started buying; was expecting a move to $2.75 and beyond; even looked forward to the (likely) November dividend.
It will require great patience, by the looks of it. Not sure I have enough of that; my 2-day volatility stop has risen to $2.68...


----------



## Country Lad

May as well throw this one in to create some confusion.

Cheers
Country Lad


----------



## skc

The DAP price chart/trend may help one trades IPL.

http://www.mongabay.com/commodities/prices/chart-dap.php

IPL has for some time been a potential profit downgrade candidate in my books, and the chart really threatened to break below $2.65. An investor update presentation 2 weeks ago provided no bad news so the price action has moved away from that support, although not too convincingly. They need at least a high low to really be clear of that danger zone.

IPL due to report around early Nov so the downgrade window hasn't closed yet imo.


----------



## peter2

Nice correlation (DAP:IPL) *skc*. I'll be noting that on my IPL chart as a confirmation filter. 

Has the move to prop-trading provided a better source of quality FA info?


----------



## skc

peter2 said:


> Nice correlation (DAP:IPL) *skc*. I'll be noting that on my IPL chart as a confirmation filter.
> 
> Has the move to prop-trading provided a better source of quality FA info?




I do get better access to analyst reports etc, but that's not really a real edge as many people (retail or insto) have access to the same stuff.


----------



## ROE

How low can it go I been pulling many $2.50 naked put for a while with Great Success 
One will expire tomorrow worthless unless it drop > 20c at close of tomorrow 

did another one yesterday
Notification that we have SOLD for you 100 contracts in INCITEC PIVOT DE13P 250


----------



## pixel

ROE said:


> How low can it go I been pulling many $2.50 naked put for a while with Great Success
> One will expire tomorrow worthless unless it drop > 20c at close of tomorrow
> 
> did another one yesterday
> Notification that we have SOLD for you 100 contracts in INCITEC PIVOT DE13P 250




Smart assessment, ROE
If you really want some, you'll have to increase your Put strike. Given the recent Higher Lows, I'd consider it unlikely that $2.50 will be revisited any time soon. If, as I expect, this week's candle closes above the falling trendline, I consider it more likely to rise above $2.80 and beyond.




I hold and intend to add some more. A dividend should also be due in November.


----------



## ROE

I had it both way at a moment
I bought some at 2.60 sometimes a go collect dividend while write covered call
I wrote covered call on 2.90 Dec 13
I wrote naked put 2.50 Dec 13 

Will work out what to do next come Dec 13 -


----------



## skc

pixel said:


> If, as I expect, this week's candle closes above the falling trendline, I consider it more likely to rise above $2.80 and beyond.




Nice call.



skc said:


> IPL due to report around early Nov so the downgrade window hasn't closed yet imo.




The results were inline and were pretty clean. There were no nasty downgrades for next year although the dividend is much reduced. Cash flow was pretty healthy considering the reduction in NPAT. Stock up 9% one point. It marks a good week for the chemical sector with ORI going up ~20% in 2 days on a result that beat (low) expectation.



ROE said:


> I had it both way at a moment
> I bought some at 2.60 sometimes a go collect dividend while write covered call
> I wrote covered call on 2.90 Dec 13
> I wrote naked put 2.50 Dec 13
> 
> Will work out what to do next come Dec 13 -




Looks like you might get called?


----------



## piggybank

Updated P&F chart.....


----------



## pixel

When Fib 161.8 proved holding resistance, I sold most of mine at 2.85, expecting to be able to get them back a little lower and still collect the dividend: 5.8c plus 1.8c franking credit for those that I hold them long enough.


----------



## ROE

skc said:


> Nice call.
> 
> 
> 
> The results were inline and were pretty clean. There were no nasty downgrades for next year although the dividend is much reduced. Cash flow was pretty healthy considering the reduction in NPAT. Stock up 9% one point. It marks a good week for the chemical sector with ORI going up ~20% in 2 days on a result that beat (low) expectation.
> 
> 
> 
> Looks like you might get called?




Happy to let the call go - I can write naked put for 2.80 when the time come


----------



## piggybank

Well that has really stuffed up my downward channel...


----------



## Ves

Pretty chart.   I like the look of it, starting to look nasty.   A company with lots of short-term headwinds and operation problems....   but still fairly profitable.    I'll have to run the ruler of IPL pretty closely to see how interested I'd be in its long term prospects if there's a big capitulation event.

It may be an interesting way to play the argicultural trend and a long term reversion on the AUD.


----------



## Valued

High accounting goodwill and low RoE - I would expect a goodwill impairment at some point. Maybe when someone figures out that they are better off investing anywhere else. Investors beware imo. Techies... carry on with whatever it is you do with your fancy charts

If I wanted to invest in this company, I think I would assume an impairment will take place and try to take an educated guess about what kind of level it will be and then value it on the basis that the impairment will occur. I would just make the assumption that the economic goodwill is lower than the accounting goodwill. I can't say for sure this is correct but since the worst thing that can happen is you undervalue the company then you can't make any real mistakes.

What is everyone elses opinion on high accounting goodwill and low RoE? I just don't see how this can be sustainable since no one in the right mind would buy a business only to get a 7% return on their money.


----------



## So_Cynical

My first post in the IPL thread, i have to say i often find myself drawn to ranging stocks...i suppose its the perception of predictability of price movement :dunno: anyway i have posted about IPL in my super thread.



So_Cynical said:


> (28th-October-2013) doubled my IPL position @ $2.69




I simply had no cash to buy another parcel at the bottom, near perfect little V bottom that it was...very frustrating constantly being fully invested, my 2 parcels in blue looking good with today's 37 week high, first time trading above $3 since May 2013.
~


----------



## Triathlete

Is anyone following IPL at the moment and care to share their view.?

Stock shows a Forecast EPS Growth of 9% Sept 2016 growing to EPS 35% Sept 2017
and a consensus price forecast of $4.40.

Technicals also supporting the stock at the moment.

I would think that if the forecasts are met then a move towards $5 then $7 is possible.

Current price $3.88


----------



## ukulele

Not sure what happened on Friday? Huge drop. Technically looks very bad now.


----------



## rcm617

ukulele said:


> Not sure what happened on Friday? Huge drop. Technically looks very bad now.




Urea and DAP spot pricing has been steadily heading downhill over the last 6 months, now down 30% and 18% respectively.
Probably some analyst downgrades starting to come in after the holiday break.


----------



## skc

rcm617 said:


> Urea and DAP spot pricing has been steadily heading downhill over the last 6 months, now down 30% and 18% respectively.
> Probably some analyst downgrades starting to come in after the holiday break.




Just wondering if you have a link that's good for urea and DAP spot prices (current and historical).

The only new news I could find yesterday was that Goldmans released a piece on IPL that talked about the downside risks... but the recommendation actually didn't change.

A potential trade on Monday with the speeding ticket response and a positive lead.

cheers


----------



## peter2

Link for commodity prices incl DAP and urea. It was you, skc that put me onto one at mongabay but it has since changed to indexmundi.com/commodities.


----------



## rcm617

skc said:


> Just wondering if you have a link that's good for urea and DAP spot prices (current and historical).
> 
> The only new news I could find yesterday was that Goldmans released a piece on IPL that talked about the downside risks... but the recommendation actually didn't change.
> 
> A potential trade on Monday with the speeding ticket response and a positive lead
> cheers




No, got those figures off a chart on another forum site. Have had a look at a few different charts including indexmundi and barcharts and they all seem to give slightly different numbers, but all showing a downtrend.
This is a quote from farm futures weekly fertilizer review but it is more about retail pricing.
http://farmfutures.com/story-weekly-fertilizer-review-0-30765
"Chaos on world financial markets has the eroded purchasing of many countries whose currencies have been battered. That’s exacerbated weakness in fertilizer markets caused by low crop prices, sending retail and wholesale costs down again this week.
Urea prices are suffering from oversupply and lack of demand, which sent swaps at the Gulf down 10% last week. That took that wholesale benchmark below $200, with forwards through summer below that level two. Retail costs continue to follow wholesale values lower, with our average slipping around $5 last wee4k to $356, almost $100 cheaper than the cost at planting time in 2015.Fair value based on the whole sale market is about $10 cheaper and fundamentals show little risk of rising values into spring. Demand from Brazil is sharply lower – the real is trading at historic lows –and India is buying from multiple sources, not just China, including Iran, which is likely to put even more supply on the world market now that sanctions are lifted.
Phosphates are also slumping sharply. DAP at the Gulf is $100 below its harvest costs. Retail costs lag that amount some – they’re off $75 – with potential for another $25 to $50 reduction into spring. Our average for DAP is at $470, down $7 this week, matching the decline on the wholesale market. Current fair value is around $453, with swaps for spring $15 to $20 lower than that. Fundaments indicate prices could be lower still if international demand doesn’t recover."


----------



## skc

peter2 said:


> Link for commodity prices incl DAP and urea. It was you, skc that put me onto one at mongabay but it has since changed to indexmundi.com/commodities.




Haha. I clicked on my own link and it didn't seem to take me anywhere meaningful. I didn't look closely enough to note that there was a name change.



rcm617 said:


> No, got those figures off a chart on another forum site. Have had a look at a few different charts including indexmundi and barcharts and they all seem to give slightly different numbers, but all showing a downtrend.
> This is a quote from farm futures weekly fertilizer review but it is more about retail pricing.
> http://farmfutures.com/story-weekly-fertilizer-review-0-30765
> "Chaos on world financial markets has the eroded purchasing of many countries whose currencies have been battered. That’s exacerbated weakness in fertilizer markets caused by low crop prices, sending retail and wholesale costs down again this week.
> Urea prices are suffering from oversupply and lack of demand, which sent swaps at the Gulf down 10% last week. That took that wholesale benchmark below $200, with forwards through summer below that level two. Retail costs continue to follow wholesale values lower, with our average slipping around $5 last wee4k to $356, almost $100 cheaper than the cost at planting time in 2015.Fair value based on the whole sale market is about $10 cheaper and fundamentals show little risk of rising values into spring. Demand from Brazil is sharply lower – the real is trading at historic lows –and India is buying from multiple sources, not just China, including Iran, which is likely to put even more supply on the world market now that sanctions are lifted.
> Phosphates are also slumping sharply. DAP at the Gulf is $100 below its harvest costs. Retail costs lag that amount some – they’re off $75 – with potential for another $25 to $50 reduction into spring. Our average for DAP is at $470, down $7 this week, matching the decline on the wholesale market. Current fair value is around $453, with swaps for spring $15 to $20 lower than that. Fundaments indicate prices could be lower still if international demand doesn’t recover."




Thanks for the info.


----------



## skc

IPL recently reported what appears to be a "beat" figure and the market responded by bidding it up ~20% since the news.

However, this is the analysis from Morgan Stanley...



> IPL's 1H16 result is messy, significantly impacted by the decision to impair Gibson Island and raise the prospect it could be loss making from September 2018. That said, underlying EBIT appears to have comfortably beaten our forecast. Digging deeper however it appears this beat was entirely driven by* a A$32m favourable movement in product in stock eliminations* - without this EBIT would have missed our underlying forecast by ~9% (or in line if we adjust for train derailment costs). If we are correct in our interpretation that this elimination benefit will reverse in 2H16 and given the headwinds IPL has highlighted for the period (including the need for a further A$35m of restructuring costs) we expect consensus FY16e estimates may still need to fall ~10%.




I am trying to get my head around this "product in stock eliminations".

Anyone have a view on this and care to explain it in simpler terms? 

Thanks


----------



## Ves

skc said:


> I am trying to get my head around this "product in stock eliminations".
> 
> Anyone have a view on this and care to explain it in simpler terms?
> 
> Thanks




I'm not an expert by any means.   

IPL owns many subsidiaries across a few different geographical territorities.  Some of these segments would manufacture fertiliser and sell them in-house to the other busineses held within the group.

The accounting standards (some one can correct me if I am wrong) require a business to report stock transfers between subsidiaries as if they were done at arms-length price.

If you look at the graph in the presentation during the period the price of fertiliser changed a fair bit from beginning to end (just over 20%).

So I'd say they transferred stock to a subsidiary when the price was much higher and realised a profit in the 1H accounts.  

When the subsidiary actually sells the stock on market in the next half the price will be lower (based on the end of period market price) and this profit would unwind because the COGs is inflated.  

IPL releases their profit figures in their presentation both Ex and Pre internal price movements (they call them IMIs, can't remember what it stands for).


----------



## McLovin

skc said:


> IPL recently reported what appears to be a "beat" figure and the market responded by bidding it up ~20% since the news.
> 
> However, this is the analysis from Morgan Stanley...
> 
> 
> 
> I am trying to get my head around this "product in stock eliminations".
> 
> Anyone have a view on this and care to explain it in simpler terms?
> 
> Thanks




I'll take a stab at it, although I don't really understand what the broker is trying to say, because my understanding of eliminations is that they are pretty hard to game.

When you have a consolidated group any transactions between group entities need to be eliminated when preparing the group accounts. If they didn't do this then a company could create revenue and profit by selling from one subsidiary to another.

Looking at the IPL accounts, and they are pretty vague and messy, there is this...





My take on that is that during the period IPF sells DAP fertiliser to SCI which results in eliminations to remove the effect of internal profit and the uplift in the value of inventory in the group. Because of the fall in the price of DAP fertiliser, this year the amount of the elimination is less (IPF is making less margin selling to SCI). 

Maybe Ves knows a bit more. Business combinations was the one subject at uni I cam very close to failing. The fail rate for the subject was over 50%.


----------



## McLovin

Ves said:


> I'm not an expert by any means.
> 
> IPL owns many subsidiaries across a few different geographical territorities.  Some of these segments would manufacture fertiliser and sell them in-house to the other busineses held within the group.
> 
> The accounting standards (some one can correct me if I am wrong) require a business to report stock transfers between subsidiaries as if they were done at arms-length price.
> 
> If you look at the graph in the presentation during the period the price of fertiliser changed a fair bit from beginning to end (just over 20%).
> 
> So I'd say they transferred stock to a subsidiary when the price was much higher and realised a profit in the 1H accounts.
> 
> When the subsidiary actually sells the stock on market in the next half the price will be lower (based on the end of period market price) and this profit would unwind because the COGs is inflated.
> 
> IPL releases their profit figures in their presentation both Ex and Pre internal price movements (they call them IMIs, can't remember what it stands for).




Doesn't the unrealised gain in inventory, and the profit to the subsidiary selling the product to the other subsidiary need to be accounted for during the period of the transfer between the two subsidiaries? My understanding is that there can't be any gain in the consolidated accounts that attributable to intra-group transactions.

As an example: If  A and B are a subsidiary of G, and A buys a lounge from an external supplier for $500 then sells it to B for $700 and they have it in their warehouse at balance date, then at consolidation there's a profit of $200 that needs to be eliminated and the value of inventory needs to be adjusted down by $200 to reflect the cost of inventory to G (what A paid for the lounge).


----------



## Ves

McLovin said:


> Doesn't the unrealised gain in inventory, and the profit to the subsidiary selling the product to the other subsidiary need to be accounted for during the period of the transfer between the two subsidiaries? My understanding is that there can't be any gain in the consolidated accounts that attributable to intra-group transactions.



Now I'm actually confused as to why they need to report the pre-IMI figures at all?


----------



## McLovin

Ves said:


> Now I'm actually confused as to why they need to report the pre-IMI figures at all?




The IMI's are the one offs right? I'm confused why the eliminations are so prominent in the accounts. Usually you have to dig pretty deep into the segment reporting to find them. There's clearly something I'm not getting about the accounts. I think you might be on the right track about the market value of DAP affecting the value of inventory, and maybe the unrealised gain or loss which would explain why elimination numbers are useful.

You're the accountant, I was hoping you'd know the answer!


----------



## Ves

McLovin said:


> The IMI's are the one offs right? I'm confused why the eliminations are so prominent in the accounts. Usually you have to dig pretty deep into the segment reporting to find them. There's clearly something I'm not getting about the accounts.
> 
> You're the accountant, I was hoping you'd know the answer!



LOL,  sometimes I wish I was a corporate / financial accountant.  Then I see stuff like this and get a headache.

Probably best to ignore my first post.

They don't look like they are counted in the Accounts  (but are shown on the segment reports).

But they're mentioned all over the presentations.  It's like they are saying...   well,  if we actually sold these bags of fertiliser to an external party when we made them, instead of holding them in another subsidiary whilst the price dropped, then would have made X.

But they didn't,  because there aren't any buyers in that season.

It sounds like nonsense to me.  There's no cashflow effect,   no actual reality. It's just stock shuffling via internal transfers.   

Most companies don't even mention it,  as you rightly commented.  We're either missing something, or they're making their disclosures unnecessarily complicated.


----------



## McLovin

Ves said:


> But they're mentioned all over the presentations.  It's like they are saying...   well,  if we actually sold these bags of fertiliser to an external party when we made them, instead of holding them in another subsidiary whilst the price dropped, then would have made X.




This might be on the right track, mate. I definitely think having a market price is why the eliminations have come into play. A really simple example of my thinking would be say IPF has fertiliser inventory with a cost price of $100. It then sells it to SCI for $140 which is the market price of fertiliser. If the price of fertiliser is >=$140 at balance date then the inventory is valued by SCI at cost, in this case resulting in an elimination of $40 to inventory. If the market price of fertiliser falls, like it has this half, to say $110, then the value of the inventory on SCI's books is $110, and the elimination required is only $10. So the lower elimination number boosts EBIT in the current period but there will be an economic cost (obviously) once the fertiliser is sold at the lower market price. And IPF will charge SCI < $100 next time so the system should move back into balance. I guess when prices are rising the opposite happens.

Sorry if that sounds muddled I'm really thinking aloud hoping it makes sense to myself.


----------



## Ves

McLovin said:


> This might be on the right track, mate. I definitely think having a market price is why the eliminations have come into play. A really simple example of my thinking would be say IPF has fertiliser inventory with a cost price of $100. It then sells it to SCI for $140 which is the market price of fertiliser. If the price of fertiliser is >=$140 at balance date then the inventory is valued by SCI at cost, in this case resulting in an elimination of $40 to inventory. If the market price of fertiliser falls, like it has this half, to say $110, then the value of the inventory on SCI's books is $110, and the elimination required is only $10. So the lower elimination number boosts EBIT in the current period but there will be an economic cost (obviously) once the fertiliser is sold at the lower market price. And IPF will charge SCI < $100 next time so the system should move back into balance. I guess when prices are rising the opposite happens.
> 
> Sorry if that sounds muddled I'm really thinking aloud hoping it makes sense to myself.




Yep that does make a lot of sense if you put it that way.

For an investor you really just need to look at it as if the inter-entity stuff doesn't exist.

I will note though,  because of the volatile nature of market movements of things like fertiliser, you need to be careful when looking at cash flow.   Cash flow would look amazing in years when they made fertiliser at the start of the year and it increased rapidly before they sold it  and the reverse is if it went down after they made it cash flow might look pretty poor.

These companies are pretty hard to value because they are linked to a market commodity price. 

Food for thought,  does this make them a price taker? If so, their only real competitive advantage would come from economies of scale or captive customers (No idea how this could apply) I would imagine.


----------



## skc

McLovin said:


> I'll take a stab at it






Ves said:


> But they're mentioned all over the presentations.  It's like they are saying...   well,  if we actually sold these bags of fertiliser to an external party when we made them, instead of holding them in another subsidiary whilst the price dropped, then would have made X.
> 
> But they didn't,  because there aren't any buyers in that season.
> 
> It sounds like nonsense to me.  There's no cashflow effect,   no actual reality. It's just stock shuffling via internal transfers.




Thanks guys for giving this a crack. I think I am a little bit less unclear. Still unclear.. but less so. 



McLovin said:


> This might be on the right track, mate. I definitely think having a market price is why the eliminations have come into play. A really simple example of my thinking would be say IPF has fertiliser inventory with a cost price of $100. It then sells it to SCI for $140 which is the market price of fertiliser. If the price of fertiliser is >=$140 at balance date then the inventory is valued by SCI at cost, in this case resulting in an elimination of $40 to inventory. If the market price of fertiliser falls, like it has this half, to say $110, then the value of the inventory on SCI's books is $110, and the elimination required is only $10. So the lower elimination number boosts EBIT in the current period but there will be an economic cost (obviously) once the fertiliser is sold at the lower market price. And IPF will charge SCI < $100 next time so the system should move back into balance. I guess when prices are rising the opposite happens.
> 
> Sorry if that sounds muddled I'm really thinking aloud hoping it makes sense to myself.



Sort of make sense. I can understand if elimination was a lower negative number...but still not sure why they presented the elimination as a net positive. 

I guess the H2 number will bring home to roost whether this $32m will be reversed or not. We will get to see if these analysts covering IPL were the 50% who passed the business combination exam! Something to keep in mind as it could create a "shock" result if no one actually fully understood it. 

Thanks again.


----------



## McLovin

skc said:


> I think I am a little bit less unclear. Still unclear.. but less so.




Welcome to the club.

Let me think about the rest, and get back to you.


----------



## McLovin

Guess what I found?!...

...A transcript of the earnings call.



> Corporate costs are pretty flat, down a fraction, again proving that the cost-outs that we've delivered so far are sustainable. The elimination at the Group level is AUD32 million lower compared with the first half last year, and that relates to remaining phosphate product sold by the SCI division to the IPF division. And obviously then it gets eliminated until IPF then on-sells that product into the external market. So we had about 100,000 tonnes of product at March 31 this year which was approximately the same amount of tonnes that we had on hand at the same time last year.
> 
> The difference is of course is that this year that stock was valued at a lower amount because of the DAP price. So what will occur is that in the second half you'll get less of a profit release as that stock is on-sold into the external market.
> 
> So I want to make sure that there is no confusion about this and for absolute clarity, the elimination of profit in stock relates to stock that will be sold in the second half and it actually has had no impact on the first half result at a Group level because it's eliminated. So what it reflects is the fact that as that stock is going to be sold through into the market in the second half, we will realise a lower profit because of lower DAP prices.




Ha! I was on the money, despite confusing myself in the process. The revaluation affects this period and will be unwound in subsequent periods. Showing the elimination has the benefit of providing a look through to what sort of profit is already sitting in inventory waiting to be realised. For most companies we don't see this because there aren't big intra-group sales.

I'm not sure why JP Morgan are saying they had to dig deeper to find this. It seems like management was pretty upfront.


----------



## galumay

Great discussion guys, once again you all taught me a little more about reading financial reports!


----------



## Ves

McLovin said:


> Guess what I found?!...
> 
> ...A transcript of the earnings call.




Hah!  Thanks for that,  definitely a good point about the earnings visibility from the current inventory values.


----------



## skc

McLovin said:


> Guess what I found?!...
> 
> ...A transcript of the earnings call.
> 
> Ha! I was on the money, despite confusing myself in the process. The revaluation affects this period and will be unwound in subsequent periods. Showing the elimination has the benefit of providing a look through to what sort of profit is already sitting in inventory waiting to be realised. For most companies we don't see this because there aren't big intra-group sales.
> 
> I'm not sure why JP Morgan are saying they had to dig deeper to find this. It seems like management was pretty upfront.




Thanks. I got it I think. It actually suggests that the H1 numbers are quite solid.

It seems that the JPM analyst was confused between the actual elimination number (which was -$2m) vs the positive $32m elimination number shown on the EBIT waterfall.


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## craft

skc said:


> Thanks. I got it I think. It actually suggests that the H1 numbers are quite solid.
> 
> It seems that the JPM analyst was confused between the actual elimination number (which was -$2m) vs the positive $32m elimination number shown on the EBIT waterfall.




mmmmmm  Maybe Not.


They had to back out 34.4m of profit created by eliminations pcp. This period it was only 2m. The difference of 32m falls straight to the EBIT line in this period.  The reduced profit realisation between subsidiaries and hence reduced eliminations would be as a result of current spot markets and expectations of pricing to external customers when stock is sold.  Even if prices keep falling and subsidiaries transact at breakeven the most that eliminations can fall by next period is 2m (it can go negative and subtract from reported ebit if prices go up) 

Best to consider IPL pre eliminations me thinks  (Just think of eliminations as a management revaluation of inventory on hand) – it’s much cleaner. On that basis last period was 250M EBIT this period is 199.3M EBIT.


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## McLovin

craft said:


> Best to consider IPL pre eliminations me thinks  (Just think of eliminations as a management revaluation of inventory on hand) – it’s much cleaner. On that basis last period was 250M EBIT this period is 199.3M EBIT.




Does it actually tidy up the result? If the eliminations are just part and parcel of the business then using pre or post elimination figures should all come out in the wash over a couple of periods, right? Shouldn't we just expect reported EBIT to fall in the next period when the inventory is sold.


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## craft

McLovin said:


> Does it actually tidy up the result? If the eliminations are just part and parcel of the business then using pre or post elimination figures should all come out in the wash over a couple of periods, right? Shouldn't we just expect reported EBIT to fall in the next period when the inventory is sold.




It does if you accept the attempt to revalue inventory for transfer pricing is anywhere near useful. 

Accepting it as a relevant revaluation its easy to see last period was an economic return of 250 Million and this period is a big decrease to 199.3M or -20% as opposed to the statutory EBIT which is only down 6%. If the economic story of transfer pricing revaluation is correct then the remaining 14% decrease is baked into next periods statutory result. Which is what I interpret Morgan Stanley was saying in the reference that kicked of this whole discussion.    

Yes it will all come out in the wash over a few periods - but adding back the eliminations gives the timeliest economic picture *if* the transfer pricing gives an insight into the economics of inventory valuation.


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## McLovin

craft said:


> It does if you accept the attempt to revalue inventory for transfer pricing is anywhere near useful.
> 
> Accepting it as a relevant revaluation its easy to see last period was an economic return of 250 Million and this period is a big decrease to 199.3M or -20% as opposed to the statutory EBIT which is only down 6%. If the economic story of transfer pricing revaluation is correct then the remaining 14% decrease is baked into next periods statutory result. Which is what I interpret Morgan Stanley was saying in the reference that kicked of this whole discussion.
> 
> Yes it will all come out in the wash over a few periods - but adding back the eliminations gives the timeliest economic picture *if* the transfer pricing gives an insight into the economics of inventory valuation.




I get ya.

Actually this discussion has been enlightening for me. I always recoiled at the thought of biz combos, but they're not so bad.


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## qldfrog

And you can short IPL via put option if you wish to;


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## skc

qldfrog said:


> And you can short IPL via put option if you wish to;




Or you can just short it with a broker who allows short selling. Plenty of liquidity.

However, I am no sure if this discussion has led to a conclusive trade decision or not...


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## qldfrog

skc said:


> Or you can just short it with a broker who allows short selling. Plenty of liquidity.
> 
> However, I am no sure if this discussion has led to a conclusive trade decision or not...



no consensus but I made my mind


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## greggles

After recovering nicely from $3.30 in late May, Incitec Pivot is now struggling to get through a barrier at $3.80. It has traded in a very tight range this week and something will have to give one way or the other soon.


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## mullokintyre

IPL appears to be staging a bit of a comeback. With a good amount of the ag areas having come out or about to come out of drought, the fertilzer side of the business might get a good boost.  Consistent rains in spring will be vitally important. Long range forecasts look good, with a fair bit of subsoil moisture in ground.
I hold.


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## Dona Ferentes

with a $5B market cap, IPL is, post Covid April 2020, cheaper than it had been for 10 years. One fund manager reckons it could be a takeover target:


> _Incitec Pivot is a diversified chemicals company which manufactures and distributes explosives and fertilisers. It is the largest explosives company in the United States and the largest fertiliser manufacturer and distributor in Australia. The firm’s* competitive advantage is the privileged locations of its plants and distribution assets* near its customers and its access to low-cost inputs._






> _After having undertaken significant capital expenditure in recent years on improving the manufacturing performance of its plants, Incitec Pivot is now ex-capex, generating strong cashflows, and currently benefitting from very high fertiliser prices. The company will also benefit in the years ahead from the US Government’s trillion dollar planned infrastructure spending, which will lead to strong demand from Incitec Pivot’s quarry and construction customers in the US._






> _Incitec Pivot also has a strong balance sheet and a very appealing valuation, particularly given the high multiple the fertiliser distribution business in Australia could attract from other industry players. This could make Incitec Pivot a target for an industry competitor such as Wesfarmers, which could potentially achieve significant synergies from such an acquisition, or from private equity players which could look to break the business up and sell it in parts, thereby achieving much higher multiples than where Incitec Pivot is trading today._




But revenues have been flat, Margins slipped down to high teens, and PE >20. Is it changing as in box 2 (capex down, cashflows up, fert prices high?)


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## mullokintyre

Dona Ferentes said:


> with a $5B market cap, IPL is, post Covid April 2020, cheaper than it had been for 10 years. One fund manager reckons it could be a takeover target:
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> But revenues have been flat, Margins slipped down to high teens, and PE >20. Is it changing as in box 2 (capex down, cashflows up, fert prices high?)



Yeah, everything except the price seems to be going in the wrong direction. Revenue growth is just not there, and the big issue is the fall in free cash flow. Will make the divs a little uncertain.
Might have to exit this one,  but I will at least be in profit.
Mick


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## divs4ever

i grabbed the parachute in January  2015 ( @ $3.30 ) as soon as i saw they were making agreements with CTP 

 so how are they going now ???


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## mullokintyre

Most of mine were picked up between 1.80 and 2.15, sitting at 2.67 today. 
Not great profit, but did get some divvies as well.
And beats the hell out of taking a loss.
Mick


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## divs4ever

nice work  , 

but i wanted a proper 'blue chip'  and IPL was looking like going the other way 

 yes i escaped IPL  with a modest profit and some divs  ,  there were better shares on offer in January 2015


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## sptrawler

Incitec to close Gibson Island manufacturing plant, due to high gas prices.


			https://investors.incitecpivot.com.au/static-files/4a590226-75dd-40b7-8ed5-295b45d00cc0
		

From the article:


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## Ferret

> Incitec to close Gibson Island manufacturing plant, due to high gas prices.



Really bad news for the country.

I hope this gets lots of publicity and forces government hands to introduce a gas reservation policy or other means to make local gas affordable.


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## Country Lad

It sounds to me a clever way to put pressure on the federal government to go further with the proposed quarantining of gas for domestic consumption which seems to have gone pretty well nowhere.


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## qldfrog

Especially as it is a firm which has great potential to ride the green wave and suck billions of taxpayers $.
More credible than FMG to transition to green hydrogen then green amonia and fertilizers explosives.
But if they close production here, no green fertiliser made here either, and we need this if China put the pressure one day


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## sptrawler

Ferret said:


> Really bad news for the country.
> 
> I hope this gets lots of publicity and forces government hands to introduce a gas reservation policy or other means to make local gas affordable.



It certainly doesn't bode well for the gas fired recovery, they are talking about.


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## Dona Ferentes

Country Lad said:


> It sounds to me a clever way to put pressure on the federal government to go further with the proposed quarantining of gas for domestic consumption which seems to have gone pretty well nowhere.



but there's a new game in town

_The main domestic producer of *urea *in Australia, Incitec Pivot’s Gibson Island plant in Queensland, is due to close in 2022 after it failed to source affordable gas, further increasing the country’s reliance on imports (of AdBlue)._

Global urea prices have surged to more than $1300 a tonne in recent months, up from under $500.

Australia has managed to access additional supplies of urea from Indonesia, which has increased storage supplies by a couple of weeks. The stockpile may be further topped up as talks with Saudi Arabia, the United Arab Emirates, Qatar and Japan continue,


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## mullokintyre

Dona Ferentes said:


> but there's a new game in town
> 
> _The main domestic producer of *urea *in Australia, Incitec Pivot’s Gibson Island plant in Queensland, is due to close in 2022 after it failed to source affordable gas, further increasing the country’s reliance on imports (of AdBlue)._
> 
> Global urea prices have surged to more than $1300 a tonne in recent months, up from under $500.
> 
> Australia has managed to access additional supplies of urea from Indonesia, which has increased storage supplies by a couple of weeks. The stockpile may be further topped up as talks with Saudi Arabia, the United Arab Emirates, Qatar and Japan continue,



Given the level of interference from various levels of governments, it comes as a bit of a surprise that this did not go "unfixed".
Australia, lucky we have really big feet on those critters on the coat of arms, we specialise in shooting ourselves in the foot.
Mick


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## divs4ever

sptrawler said:


> It certainly doesn't bode well for the gas fired recovery, they are talking about.



 well politicians after all emit methane  ... i thought  that was the gas propelled recovery they were speaking about .  as opposed to a new industrial productivity  boom  , which  might be a positive thing for several sectors


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## qldfrog

qldfrog said:


> Especially as it is a firm which has great potential to ride the green wave and suck billions of taxpayers $.
> More credible than FMG to transition to green hydrogen then green amonia and fertilizers explosives.
> But if they close production here, no green fertiliser made here either, and we need this if China put the pressure one day



That was in November, took less than 2 months to reach critical status


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## Dona Ferentes

reading around the traps:

Matt Dalgleish of agribusiness consultancy _Thomas Elder Market _says the long chain of events that has led to the AdBlue issues can at least in part be traced back to China’s unofficial ban on Australian coal. The circle looks something like this.

It’s been well documented that the shortages of AdBlue relate to China’s restricting exports of a product called urea, which is both the main ingredient in AdBlue and one of the world’s most common fertilisers.

China has imposed restrictions on urea because of shortages of fertilisers, which have sent prices to record levels around the world. These price hikes and shortages are caused in a large part because of surging gas and coal prices, which have not been helped by China’s decision to block Australian coal imports.

The fertilisers shortages are such that Dalgleish, who also owns a commercial pig farm, is being inundated with offers from farmers wanting to use his pigs’ poo as organic fertiliser.

Dalgleish emphasises that there are other factors in the fertiliser price spike, including Russia imposing export restrictions to keep its domestic market supplied.

Climate issues have also played a role. Drought and then disastrous floods in Canada that have destroyed infrastructure (_Potash is priced out of Vancouver; MoP comes from other side of the Rockies_). Floods in Spain. Australia’s weather has largely been kind to farmers, but recent floods have caused interruptions.

- So, shouldn't IPL be jumping for joy?


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## divs4ever

that would depend if IPL can keep up with current customer demand  ( and has extra production  capacity )

 remember IPL isn't the only fertilizer producer in Australia , the rivals might be better placed to produce more , faster 

 i hold WES , and keep watch on ORI ,  and NUF 

 DYOR

( i have held IPL in the past )


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## Dona Ferentes

The federal government and fertiliser manufacturer Incitec Pivot have struck an agreement to significantly increase the local production of urea used in the diesel exhaust fluid AdBlue.

The company will design, trial and, once tests are successful, scale up manufacturing of significant quantities of technical grade urea to supply the domestic market.

In November, Incitec Pivot announced plans to shut down its Gibson Island fertiliser plant in Brisbane by December 2022.

The new deal has brought much-needed relief for many in the industry.

"It's good news that there is an Australian option to produce urea locally," Simon Henry, chief executive of DGL Group, the parent company of Australia's largest AdBlue producer AUSblue, told the ABC.


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## divs4ever

so has the FFI  deal fallen through ?? ( for Gibson Island )


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## sptrawler

divs4ever said:


> so has the FFI  deal fallen through ?? ( for Gibson Island )



I doubt it, the requirement to get H2 and ammonia supply is still there.
The big question is, where does it get the gas from to run the plant, just another squeeze on a limited supply.
An East Coast gas terminal seems more and more likely IMO.


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## qldfrog

sptrawler said:


> I doubt it, the requirement to get H2 and ammonia supply is still there.
> The big question is, where does it get the gas from to run the plant, just another squeeze on a limited supply.
> An East Coast gas terminal seems more and more likely IMO.



Australia is so amazing, rushing to build a terminal to import expensively the gas we export cheaply.
The lucky country..but yes, ipl was closing its plant due to gas price and availability


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## divs4ever

don't  worry we do the same with petrol and diesel as well it is  not as though it is an anomaly


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## Garpal Gumnut

I don't believe IPL have got the vision nor the assets nor the financial ability to do anything meaningful in the urea/gas/hydrogen space.

The big boys will move in.

gg


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## sptrawler

Looks like IPL's Brisbane plant has a lifeline.








						Trucking crisis averted by government deal to manufacture scarce fuel additive
					

A local company has ramped up production of a key fuel additive to stop an international shortage bringing the trucking industry to a grinding halt.




					www.smh.com.au
				



Fertiliser maker Incitec Pivot struck a deal with the federal government to ramp up manufacturing of the AdBlue fluid at its Gibson Island plant in Brisbane, which is required as a fuel additive for most modern diesel vehicles to control nitrogen oxide pollution.

The federal government granted Incitec Pivot $29.4 million last year to produce AdBlue, amid fears of widespread supply chain disruption preventing the delivery of food and goods across the country.

Incitec Pivot chief executive Jeanne Johns said the company had increased the volume of AdBlue it produced by 800 per cent since early December.


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## Smurf1976

sptrawler said:


> Looks like IPL's Brisbane plant has a lifeline.



What's not stated is for how long?


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## divs4ever

Smurf1976 said:


> What's not stated is for how long?



a very important detail , that is 

 might be worth watching intently


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## Country Lad

Smurf1976 said:


> What's not stated is for how long?



It has always been the intention to close the plant at the end of 2022. The only thing that will change that is if the deal is done with Fortescue to convert it to producing industrial scale green ammonia.


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## Sean K

The Russia thing is going to potentially affect fertiliser supply in Europe and elsewhere. Worth digging into for the effect on IPL's business.


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## qldfrog

Sean K said:


> The Russia thing is going to potentially affect fertiliser supply in Europe and elsewhere. Worth digging into for the effect on IPL's business.



And not easy due to unintended consequences,as mentioned previously,i like ipl for what i believe the right reasons: fertilisers, transport of H2, Australia conversion of gas,etc..but many many factor can influence it .including weather lately, not to mention the side effects of russian sanctions.
Not sure i still hold as i had tracking SL in place.


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## rnr

Sean K said:


> The Russia thing is going to potentially affect fertiliser supply in Europe and elsewhere. Worth digging into for the effect on IPL's business.









I get the feeling that prices will move down from here.
But then that is just my take at this point in time.

Cheers, Rob


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## mdkb

divs4ever said:


> a very important detail , that is
> 
> might be worth watching intently




I've arrived here from Seeking Alpha and "Publius" posting very interesting articles there - well worth reading to follow the global situation with Urea and Fertiliser. I have bought up some UAN, but being based in Brissie inevitably now looking at IPL as a possible investment too. I don't know the background of the company and need to do some DD, but given what I have been learning recently about the global market, if a country can produce fertiliser locally they are going to want to.

One might even wonder if the Russia action is about gaining control of global food supplies to cause famine in a few years. The area they have targeted in Ukraine is farming land and major wheat exporter IIRC.


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## Country Lad

Ab blue shortages, more fertilizer shortages due to the Russian invasion, steep price increase of fertilizer, Ad blue deal with government may make Gibson Island viable beyond the short term. No doubt why IPL is moving against its previous trend. Maybe the decision to close it could be reviewed?????


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## divs4ever

Incitec Pivot Limited announces intention to separate its two leading businesses,

Incitec Pivot Limited announces intention to separate its two leading businesses,
Dyno Nobel and Incitec Pivot Fertilisers, and build the future of two companies to
drive significant shareholder value
23 May 2022
Incitec Pivot Limited (ASX: IPL) announces that it intends to implement a structural separation of its
Incitec Pivot Fertilisers and Dyno Nobel businesses to create two separately listed companies on the
Australian Securities Exchange (ASX).
The proposed separation will establish two customer-focused, technology-driven businesses set up
for success in two essential industries:
• Dyno Nobel: Global leader in technical explosives solutions, with solid margins and
advantaged industry exposures. Dyno Nobel features strong customer relationships and
partnerships and an attractive technology backed growth outlook.
• Incitec Pivot Fertilisers: Leading fertiliser and soil health company, with an extensive and
vertically integrated network supporting the East Coast market, a globally strategic food bowl.
Incitec Pivot Fertilisers is positioned to capitalise on leading a step-change in sustainable
fertiliser and precision agriculture, as well as developing partnerships for world-class fertiliser
sourcing, including the potential Perdaman arrangement1
.
Since the strategic review of the Fertilisers business in 2019, IPL has carefully considered the
options available to continue to best serve its high-quality customers and create value for
shareholders. The decision to pursue a structural separation of IPL is the result of a comprehensive
review, with robust underlying market conditions supporting each business to move forward with
appropriately strong balance sheets.
Further detail on strategy, growth, asset perimeter, capital framework and climate change initiatives
for each of the Dyno Nobel and Incitec Pivot Fertilisers businesses will be provided in the Scheme
Booklet. A further transaction update will be provided at the 2022 Investor Day.
The rationale to separate and extend IPL’s category leadership includes:
• Significant growth potential for both businesses by accelerating our core technology offering
to two different essential industries.
• Declining synergy in sharing an ammonia manufacturing core as our explosives and fertiliser
customers require specialised and differing solutions.
• To extend our leadership each business must dedicate its capacity, resources and focus to
developing technology to underpin different customer requirements.
• Megatrends driving demand and specialisation of IPL’s products are expected to intensify,
and a separation will best position our shareholders to capture significant value.
• IPL’s current balance sheet is strong and has ample capacity to position both businesses for
success.
1 IPL’s 20-year offtake agreement with Perdaman Chemicals and Fertilisers remains subject to a final investment decision by Perdaman (refer to IPL’s market
announcement on 5 May 2021).
Incitec Pivot Limited ABN 42 004 080 264
Level 8, 28 Freshwater Place, Southbank, Victoria 3006, Australia
www.incitecpivot.com.au
Following the proposed separation, both businesses are expected to benefit from:
• Providing investor choice across two attractive category leading ASX exposures, which will
potentially drive a market re-rating of each business.
• Streamlined capital allocation decisions, unencumbered by competing business priorities.
• Strong ability to respond to customer needs and driving value creation through dedicated
focus, oversight and strategies tailored to two differing centres of excellence and technology.
• Optimisation of capital and returns by matching capital structures with different business
profiles.
IPL expects these benefits to ultimately accelerate technology driven growth by unlocking significant
improvements to the customer’s experience. Enhanced yields, safety, sustainability and infield
service will drive customer retention and growth. Our businesses will continue to grow with our
customers, and our shareholders will stand to benefit from improved margins from value-add
technology, earnings resilience, reduced volatility and improved returns through the cycle.
On completion of the proposed separation, IPL expects both Dyno Nobel and Incitec Pivot Fertilisers
to have strong balance sheets to support strategic investment opportunities. Dyno Nobel is expected
to retain all bank facilities and bonds outstanding at separation and anticipates the continuation of an
investment-grade credit rating. Incitec Pivot Fertilisers is expected to target a conservative leverage
profile and a strong balance sheet from the date of separation.
Implementation and next steps
The proposed separation of Incitec Pivot Fertilisers and Dyno Nobel is expected to be implemented
via a court-approved scheme of arrangement, subject to relevant approvals2
. Under the proposal:
• IPL will become Dyno Nobel Limited3
.
• The Incitec Pivot Fertilisers business will be demerged under a standalone entity, Incitec
Pivot Fertilisers Limited, which will seek listing on ASX.
• If the separation by way of demerger is approved and implemented, IPL shareholders will
receive shares in Incitec Pivot Fertilisers Limited in proportion to their existing shareholding
in IPL, and will also retain their existing IPL shares, which will be rebranded Dyno Nobel
Limited.
Preparatory separation and cost analysis has been conducted, with the transaction now moving into
the execution phase. Based on preliminary estimates and analysis undertaken to date, one-off costs
are expected to be $80 million - $105 million and ongoing-costs are expected to be approximately
$25 million - $35 million p.a.
A separation process has been designed to minimise cost and disruption to normal operations. IPL’s
priority is to ensure minimal operational disruption and that our businesses continue to capture the
exceptional value currently being generated at this current point in the cycle.
Assessment of key leadership appointments is progressing and will be announced in due course.
IPL is targeting completion of the proposed separation of the two businesses in the first half of 2023,
subject to required approvals and consents. For further information in relation to the proposed
separation of IPL, please refer to the presentation lodged with the ASX today entitled "Building The
Future of Two Leading Companies”.
2 Demerger subject to final IPL Board approval and relevant shareholder, court, regulatory and third-party approvals. IPL change of name subject to shareholder approval.
Dates are indicative only and subject to change.
3 The change of IPL’s company name is subject to shareholder approval.
Incitec Pivot Limited ABN 42 004 080 264
Level 8, 28 Freshwater Place, Southbank, Victoria 3006, Australia
www.incitecpivot.com.au
Commentary from IPL Chairman, Brian Kruger:
“The Board sees significant value enhancement through the separation of two industry leading
businesses and brands in Dyno Nobel and Incitec Pivot Fertilisers. Our explosives and fertilisers
businesses will continue to provide attractive exposure to the essential minerals and agriculture
industries that are underpinned by important global megatrends.
“Dyno Nobel and Incitec Pivot Fertilisers will be well positioned to drive more solutions for our
customers which drives value for our shareholders. Our category leading businesses are positioned
to grow and address both the opportunities and challenges of decarbonisation of the world’s
economy.”
Commentary from IPL Managing Director and Chief Executive Officer, Jeanne Johns:
“With the increased focus on providing our explosives and fertiliser customers with technology driven
solutions, the synergy of sharing an ammonia manufacturing core has become less meaningful.
IPL’s strategy has been to build a sustainable and technology driven company focused on building
value for our customers.
Dyno Nobel has leading technologies and market positions in the most attractive mining markets in
the world. Incitec Pivot Fertilisers has an unrivalled distribution footprint in the large and attractive
agricultural sector in Australia and an exciting technology led future in soil health solutions and
biofertilisers.
We have excellent financial capacity to provide each business with a capital structure to support their
investment and growth characteristics and potential. Our businesses are critical to the delivery of
sustainability and security to two key industries and both companies will continue to focus on
delivering leading technology and services for our high-quality customers.”

courtesy of Bell Direct
========================================================================

DYOR

i do not hold this share but have in the past ( i got out of this in January 2015 )


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