# Lithium



## greggles

Lithium has had a great run in recent years due to increasing demand from primarily electric car and battery manufacturers. However, just recently I have noticed various reports suggesting that lithium supply is going to outstrip demand in the coming years due to the increased production largely coming from Chile and Australia. Yesterday, Morgan Stanley forecast that lithium prices would fall by 45% by 2021 as a result of increasing global supply. Another article at oilprice.com is similarly suggesting that the current lithium price is approaching bubble territory.

Of course, there is no shortage of articles suggesting the exact opposite, that while lithium supply will undoubtedly grow so will demand. A number of countries, including China and India, are planning to phase out sales of gasoline and diesel cars entirely, although most of the timelines I have seen suggest that this is 15 to 25 years away. Some smaller European countries such as Norway hope to implement bans as early as 2025.

Then there is the battery market which has grown strongly due to the proliferation of smart phones and other portable electronic devices, not to mention the huge growth of solar power where the bulk of battery sales are yet to come due to the current price of products like the Tesla Powerwall not representing a good return on investment for most of those home owners with solar panels installed on their roofs. 

So, what is the future of lithium? Apparently it is abundant and relatively cheap to mine. I guess the big question is, can demand keep up with supply?


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## Wysiwyg

I have been listening to the people on the ground and in the boardrooms that are moving toward production and expansion with forward sales years ahead. Be interesting to see where the MS analysts did their crystal ball prophesying regarding future supply/demand imbalances. Nevertheless they have their unquestioning followers and there is a chance they could jag the imbalance correctly. If not I doubt anyone will remember the report and it won't make any difference except to the MS followers that exited. Anyone can forecast anything without a track record of accuracy these days.


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## Wysiwyg

Article on Li. battery improvements ahead.
https://www.wsj.com/articles/the-ba...aiting-for-is-only-a-few-years-out-1521374401


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## Wysiwyg

LIT, the Global X Lithium & Battery Tech ETF, has triple timed the support level of 33usd. A break lower is the next question to be answered and potentially bad for already under pressure Lithium stocks.


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## Wysiwyg

> Research commissioned by AMEC found the $165 billion global lithium value chain would grow to at least $2 trillion by 2025.



*Lithium giant SQM backs rush to build on-shore refineries *(click to read)


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## greggles

*This is the only chart lithium price bears need see*

Perhaps that lithium supply surplus won't be here as quickly as some analysts predict.


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## HelloU

yep, a lot of talk re vehicles and houses for demand, but the more I use the 18v power tools that can do a hard days work the more I look forward to 36v, or 48v, or 72v (or whatever) mowers, vacuums, chainsaws, outboards etc getting mainstream.  Imagine a 5 minute job taking 5 minutes instead of the first 10 minutes taken up with getting the engine started or finding an extension lead.


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## Wysiwyg

greggles said:


> *This is the only chart lithium price bears need see*
> 
> Perhaps that lithium supply surplus won't be here as quickly as some analysts predict.



Are they rain clouds I see in the distance.  W.A. hard rock devotee.


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## greggles

I found this document elsewhere and thought some here might find it useful.

It's a list of ASX-listed lithium stocks and their 30 day, 3 month and 12 month share price performance. List was generated today.


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## Buy&Forget

Yes a nice looking entry point at these subdued levels. Galaxy (GXY) is taking my interest at present..debt free, cashed up & diversified with 3 major projects globally..already producing free-cash-flow here in W.A. Great comment also by HelloU with regards to future 36/48/72 v devices to be powered by lithium rather than I.C.E...extension cords etc..I'd love to see that with an outboard/boat propeller


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## Buy&Forget

Must add that I do own some GXY stock and i'm now buying this current dip to increase my holding for long-term hold. I'm looking for other lithium stocks on-the-cheap for diversification


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## Trav.

Another article on the Lithium supply issue

'_Lithium stocks have taken a beating because investors don’t understand the lithium supply chain an analyst told a Melbourne mining conference on Tuesday.'
_
https://stockhead.com.au/resources/...tors-misunderstand-one-key-point-analyst/amp/


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## trading_rookie

Buy&Forget said:


> Must add that I do own some GXY stock and i'm now buying this current dip to increase my holding for long-term hold. I'm looking for other lithium stocks on-the-cheap for diversification



Good call on GXY up 5.3%
ORE up 6%, ASN up 13, KDR up 9%, and 4CE up 20%

I've been watching this commodity for sometime now and the damning analyst report has definately had an effect on price.  
I wonder if the article on investors not understanding the supply chain has had a reverse effect.


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## kid hustlr

ORE, KDR, GXY all starting to look interesting again.

They are a long way of their highs however is it possible these will go on another run?


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## rsjones

greggles said:


> Lithium has had a great run in recent years due to increasing demand from primarily electric car and battery manufacturers. However, just recently I have noticed various reports suggesting that lithium supply is going to outstrip demand in the coming years due to the increased production largely coming from Chile and Australia. Yesterday, Morgan Stanley forecast that lithium prices would fall by 45% by 2021 as a result of increasing global supply. Another article at oilprice.com is similarly suggesting that the current lithium price is approaching bubble territory.
> 
> Of course, there is no shortage of articles suggesting the exact opposite, that while lithium supply will undoubtedly grow so will demand. A number of countries, including China and India, are planning to phase out sales of gasoline and diesel cars entirely, although most of the timelines I have seen suggest that this is 15 to 25 years away. Some smaller European countries such as Norway hope to implement bans as early as 2025.
> 
> Then there is the battery market which has grown strongly due to the proliferation of smart phones and other portable electronic devices, not to mention the huge growth of solar power where the bulk of battery sales are yet to come due to the current price of products like the Tesla Powerwall not representing a good return on investment for most of those home owners with solar panels installed on their roofs.
> 
> So, what is the future of lithium? Apparently it is abundant and relatively cheap to mine. I guess the big question is, can demand keep up with supply?



Any one here with experience in buying/selling lithium stocks can you guys recommend which lithium stock is good to buy and flip it in a short time


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## rsjones

kid hustlr said:


> ORE, KDR, GXY all starting to look interesting again.
> 
> They are a long way of their highs however is it possible these will go on another run?



which of these 3 stocks is better to buy/sell


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## rsjones

rsjones said:


> which of these 3 stocks is better to buy/sell



how high do you think KDR will likely go from current levels


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## Ann

Business News
January 21, 2019 / 5:28 AM / Updated 2 hours ago
*Berkshire's lithium venture may supply U.S. automakers, including Tesla: FT*

_(Reuters) - Warren Buffett’s Berkshire Hathaway Inc has signed an agreement to allow extraction of lithium from its geothermal wells in California, a project that could offer U.S. carmakers and battery producers a secure supply of the metal, the Financial Times reported on Sunday. 

The venture has been in talks to supply Tesla Inc with lithium, a component for batteries to power electric cars, the newspaper reported, citing people familiar with the company. 

Berkshire Hathaway’s geothermal wells could produce up to 90,000 tonnes of lithium a year worth $1.5 billion at current prices, the report said, citing a fundraising document._        More......

https://www.reuters.com/article/us-...gn=Feed:+reuters/businessNews+(Business+News)


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## Ann

This is a chart for the price of Lithium. It appears Lithium has had a massive jump in price, no wonder Buffet has hopped into it.
Site with price for Lithium.

I will try to find a list of all of the Lithium companies we have in Australia in the next day or two. Although I think they have been listed on previous posts here, not sure.


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## HelloU

https://www.metalbulletin.com/lithium-prices-update
......hydroxide is the go to product, but carbonate pricing more widely used.


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## barney

HelloU said:


> ......*hydroxide is the go to product*, but carbonate pricing more widely used.




LPD up 40% today backs that's up too H/U


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## Ann

*Lithium Market Cheers as Top Supplier Sees Demand Driving Higher*

_The world’s largest producer of lithium calmed investor fears of oversupply and slower Chinese demand for the mineral used to power electric vehicles, sending shares surging across the industry.

Albemarle Corp.’s fourth-quarter earnings topped analysts’ estimates, and it expects global lithium demand to grow 21 percent annually, with the market remaining tight for years as manufacturing of electric cars and large-scale batteries soars. The company’s stock rose the most in almost three years on Thursday.

More...._


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## Ann

HelloU said:


> https://www.metalbulletin.com/lithium-prices-update
> ......hydroxide is the go to product, but carbonate pricing more widely used.




So basically anything that looks like a hockey stick chart is bullsh!t? I can work with that! 

Now I understand why my favourite economic data site quotes Lithium prices by using an ETF. This tracks the performance of the lithium industry. The biggest lithium producers are: Australia, Chile, Argentina, China and Zimbabwe.

As the price of companies tend to reflect the price of the underlying commodity it is as good a gauge as we can probably get for the Price of Lithium.
This is the most recent chart, it is showing a good rise happening off a recent bottom in Lithium stocks. Longer term it is just a pause in the price which has been rising for some time. It appears to be nearly double the price it was in 2016. Not surprising with the leaps which have been made with EVs. 

I read a couple of weeks back that other than Tesla who want to harvest the Lithium from old batteries other EV makers are looking to re-purpose the batteries for home use. Make money twice over, good business! This will mean they are going to keep the supply demand high, as I see it.


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## Ann

*Lithium stocks on the ASX: The Ultimate Guide*


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## Ann

*German Home Battery Demand Pushes Storage Above 5 Billion Euros*

_Homeowners tapping cheaper batteries for rooftop solar installations helped Germany’s power storage market break through the 5 billion euro ($5.6 billion) mark for the first time last year.

The market, which includes utility-scale batteries and home units, is growing by 10 percent a year, driven by a sharp decline in technology prices, Germany’s BVES storage federation said Tuesday. Falling module and battery prices are encouraging consumers to cut their power bill by generating their own electricity. More..._


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## Miner

Ann said:


> *German Home Battery Demand Pushes Storage Above 5 Billion Euros*
> 
> _Homeowners tapping cheaper batteries for rooftop solar installations helped Germany’s power storage market break through the 5 billion euro ($5.6 billion) mark for the first time last year.
> 
> The market, which includes utility-scale batteries and home units, is growing by 10 percent a year, driven by a sharp decline in technology prices, Germany’s BVES storage federation said Tuesday. Falling module and battery prices are encouraging consumers to cut their power bill by generating their own electricity. More..._



@Ann You might have seen the thread started by @greggles picking up bottom and he took EUR there. I also noticed there is no individual thread on EUR but your stand alone thread on Lithium sums up all of them.
On EUR I noticed, the major investor is Anthony (Tony) sage who made few bucks for some on Cape Lambert. He has bought fair bit of skin on EUR.
https://www.asx.com.au/asxpdf/20190124/pdf/4421sk82flft56.pdf
But Tony also started FEL which is probably starving for cash and depleting blood.
Once I saw his name as a director with EUR, thinking a lot. How come he spends millions in one and let the other company starving for cash. Where is his consistency?
Nonetheless, today EUR has gone up magnificently.
Sorry for my verbosity.


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## Ann

Got to the 120 level and dropped back.


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## barney

Ann said:


> Got to the 120 level and dropped back.




Chart looks like it is in a "regular" reversal stage for my money …

ie. Spike low/strong move up against the downtrend (complete) …. followed by retracement/ranging before the second leg higher (current) ….

Needs to find a higher low (yet to be established), then look for a second leg higher (projection) 

If it manages to drop below the recent lows, especially if it meanders there with no apparent trading direction, the above scenario should be reset/re-assessed and disregarded, perhaps with the appropriate amount of short term panic, lol

ps (discl) I hold some Lithium stock "LPD" in anticipation of the "L" resurgence over the next few months but I like to trade "tea-leaves" so any of my musings should be taken with a grain of Sodium Chloride


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## Ann

barney said:


> Chart looks like it is in a "regular" reversal stage for my money …
> 
> ie. Spike low/strong move up against the downtrend (complete) …. followed by retracement/ranging before the second leg higher (current) ….
> 
> Needs to find a higher low (yet to be established), then look for a second leg higher (projection)
> 
> If it manages to drop below the recent lows, especially if it meanders there with no apparent trading direction, the above scenario should be reset/re-assessed and disregarded, perhaps with the appropriate amount of short term panic, lol
> 
> ps (discl) I hold some Lithium stock "LPD" in anticipation of the "L" resurgence over the next few months but I like to trade "tea-leaves" so any of my musings should be taken with a grain of Sodium Chloride




I was holding PLL for a few weeks then it went 10% up from purchase, I looked at Lithium price and flicked it. It was just hanging there doing nothing mostly. As Peter says, you can always buy it back.

Looking at my own chart for Lithium (EFT) on a 6 month short term basis it has two touches on rising support and two touches on falling resistance it is too hard to call. It has just bounced off the rising support. If it falls back from the falling overhead I think it may struggle to stay above the rising support and may fall to test a double bottom. If it does that I reckon it might be quite bullish.  In fact, I think I am more bullish than bearish. But heck, with this one I could be very wrong, I am just not getting any 'feeling' from it.


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## barney

Ann said:


> *I think I am more bullish than bearish*. But heck, with this one I could be very wrong, I am just not getting any 'feeling' from it.




I'm seeing it similar …. forming a base to rise from will take a while, but the current pattern looks "correct" if there is such a thing


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## peter2

While I agree that the demand for lithium is increasing, I don't see how the price can rise too much with the numbers of lithium producers coming on line. There was a big advantage for the first movers, ASX stocks GXY, ORE, PLS, KDR but this was back in 2015 - 2017. 

The prices of all the major Li producers have been falling for the past year. I can't see that there'll be another boom for lithium.


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## Ann

It touched the upper falling resistance line and looks to be headed down again. Big question, will it find support again on the rising line? I find charting totally fascinating.


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## Ann

This may add a dampener to the price of Lithium.

*Lithium Giant Predicts Higher Sales as Expansion Plans Pay Off*

_Two months after disappointing the market with its annual results, the world’s second-largest lithium miner said an expansion is faring better than expected and sales probably will beat its forecasts for this year.

Santiago-based Soc. Quimica y Minera de Chile SA will exceed its sales target of just under 50,000 tons of lithium as output ramps up at its operations in the Atacama salt flat, according to the company’s commercial vice president of lithium and iodine Felipe Smith.


"We are ready to offer more product to the market," Smith said in an interview in Santiago on Thursday. "We have a better than expected position in production and inventories after we reached more stable production following the expansion."

 SQM, whose operation sits on top of the world’s largest lithium reserve, almost doubled its production capacity in 2018 to 70,000 tons per year to respond to booming demand for the mineral essential to power the rechargeable batteries used in electric vehicles. More..._


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## Ann

Time to look at the Lithium chart again, since we last looked, the price fell straight through the symmetrical triangle, tried to fight back and failed. Fell through the $26.25 support, got back for a couple of sessions and then failed that. It didn't get down to the $24 level before it curved back up again. Now the big question, will it be able to push back and stay above the resistance of $26.25? Gosh it is exciting!


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## Ann

I wonder if this article is suggesting not to expect the Lithium price to be doing too much for a while?

*Lithium Giant Sees Stable Prices Following a ‘Crazy Peak’*

_Lithium prices aren’t going go back to the historic highs of recent years but won’t plummet to pre-boom levels either, according to the world’s third-largest producer of the mineral key to electric-vehicle batteries.

Prices have now stabilized after miners globally boosted production capacity to match soaring demand from automakers, Tianqi Lithium Corp. Chief Executive Officer Vivian Wu said on Monday. Orders for the soft, white mineral produced mainly in Chile and Australia remain solid, she said. More..._


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## Ann

Not a great week for Lithium it got rebuffed by the $26.25 resistance line...


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## fedexpress

If you look at the regulation changes to car manufacturing in the EU, China, you will find that everyone is moving towards electric cars or at least will be long term. Lithiums stocks have taken a beating but I think it is the right play long term.


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## sptrawler

fedexpress said:


> If you look at the regulation changes to car manufacturing in the EU, China, you will find that everyone is moving towards electric cars or at least will be long term. Lithiums stocks have taken a beating but I think it is the right play long term.



From what I have read there has been a bit of an oversupply, in both Lithium and Cobalt, it appears miners have got ahead of the demand curve. Just my understanding.
DYOR,


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## Jack Aubrey

Many commentators are calling an end to the 2 year Lithium DT based on a bit of an uptick in LIT EFT and stock prices since September.  I can't quite see it myself. News is certainly encouraging for battery makers but there has been an almost simultaneous removal of subsidies by both China and the EU which may delay a genuine rebound.

Here's my chart of the LIT EFT compared to US lithium major Albermale (ALB).  My LIT channel may be wrong and some proper chartists are showing the latest uptick as a genuine breakout and reversal of the DT.



Here's the latest pricing data I could find - which doesn't exactly encourage bullish sentiment IMO.



I don't hold any Lithium-related stocks ATM, but have several on my watchlist.


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## sptrawler

Mineral Resources putting a lithium mine on care and maintenance, obviously getting in early to protect the asset.

https://www.reuters.com/article/us-...a-output-on-weak-lithium-market-idUSKBN1XA2TV


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## Jack Aubrey

The LIT DT breakout seems to be holding.   Still trading a smidgen short of the previous high of USD26.80 in July.




Prices of Lithium chemicals for October were slightly down on September (according to Benchmark Minerals Intelligence). Concerns about civil unrest in Chile is a possible driver of stock prices.

Also from Benchmark, some data on Lithium battery production forecasts:

Of the *102* lithium ion battery megafactories in the pipeline up to 2028:

China: 74
USA: 5
EU: 13
Japan: 6
Korea: 2
Thailand 1
Australia 1
India: 0

I think there are currently 3 or 4 megafactories in actual production.


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## sptrawler

Jack Aubrey said:


> Of the *102* lithium ion battery megafactories in the pipeline up to 2028:
> 
> China: 74
> USA: 5
> EU: 13
> Japan: 6
> Korea: 2
> Thailand 1
> Australia 1
> India: 0
> 
> I think there are currently 3 or 4 megafactories in actual production.




People wonder what Trump is worried about with China. 
Three quarters of world battery manufacturing, to be built in China, lucky we are going to build one ourselves, the World market for EV's will be at China's mercy.
Hopefully a trade agreement is sorted.


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## Value Collector

sptrawler said:


> People wonder what Trump is worried about with China.
> Three quarters of world battery manufacturing, to be built in China, lucky we are going to build one ourselves, the World market for EV's will be at China's mercy.
> Hopefully a trade agreement is sorted.




three quarters of the worlds EV’s will probably be sold in China to (for a while at least).

At the end of the day, if they aren’t selling to us on competitive terms, other supply centers will spring up.

a battery is just a fuel tank, so China controlling the supply of fuel tanks isn’t as bad as the Arabs controlling the supply of the actual fuel.

with ev’s we control the fuel here in Australia, if we lost supply of new fuel tanks for 6 months it wouldn’t be a big deal like it would if we lost supply of the fuel itself.


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## qldfrog

Value Collector said:


> three quarters of the worlds EV’s will probably be sold in China to (for a while at least).
> 
> At the end of the day, if they aren’t selling to us on competitive terms, other supply centers will spring up.
> 
> a battery is just a fuel tank, so China controlling the supply of fuel tanks isn’t as bad as the Arabs controlling the supply of the actual fuel.
> 
> with ev’s we control the fuel here in Australia, if we lost supply of new fuel tanks for 6 months it wouldn’t be a big deal like it would if we lost supply of the fuel itself.



Or using a similar analogy, better be Venezuela full of oil than the US manufacturing cars?
A serious issue, or just a factual way to show who is the next superpower


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## Jack Aubrey

Another dull fortnight for Lithium.  Despite lots of news - a coup in Bolivia, continuing civil unrest in Chile, an uptick in demand and lots of EV announcements (including Tesla's origami truck) - Lithium prices have continued to decline (Benchmark Minerals Month-on-Month prices are below) and the LIT ETF is barely staying clear of its two-year downtrend.




Experts (such as Rodney Hooper in this video) remain bullish for 2020 (and more so for 2021) but expect "disruption" to be the main feature of the markets, particular at the producer end.  I think that means strategic partnerships through the battery metals supply chain, and probably some takeovers.  

For those with an interest, that supply chain looks like this:



Interestingly, Australia produces 46% of the Raw Material and currently has something like 0.00% of the rest of the industry.


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## rederob

Jack Aubrey said:


> Experts (such as Rodney Hooper in this video) remain bullish for 2020 (and more so for 2021) but expect "disruption" to be the main feature of the markets, particular at the producer end.  I think that means strategic partnerships through the battery metals supply chain, and probably some takeovers.



It's hard to see 2020 improving markedly, although I too believe that BEVs will see lithium do well heading in to the mid 20s as demand really ramps up and most vehicle producers will have multiple BEV offerings.
I have never been tempted to get into lithium producers because its potential supply was always so mach greater than demand.  That is definitely likely to change.
The reports I have been reading lately have been from here.
At a producer level, Orocobre's analysis was less than optimistic near term, and like everyone else is hoping the BEV market gives them the boost they have hoped for.
As a complete aside I got my "junior swimming certificate" at a pool which is now the site of Talison Lithium's Greenbushes project.


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## sptrawler

Jack Aubrey said:


> Another dull fortnight for Lithium.  Despite lots of news - a coup in Bolivia, continuing civil unrest in Chile, an uptick in demand and lots of EV announcements (including Tesla's origami truck) - Lithium prices have continued to decline (Benchmark Minerals Month-on-Month prices are below) and the LIT ETF is barely staying clear of its two-year downtrend.
> 
> View attachment 98727
> 
> 
> Experts (such as Rodney Hooper in this video) remain bullish for 2020 (and more so for 2021) but expect "disruption" to be the main feature of the markets, particular at the producer end.  I think that means strategic partnerships through the battery metals supply chain, and probably some takeovers.
> 
> For those with an interest, that supply chain looks like this:
> 
> View attachment 98728
> 
> Interestingly, Australia produces 46% of the Raw Material and currently has something like 0.00% of the rest of the industry.




Another lithium producer on the ropes, from oversupply situation.

https://www.mining.com/nemaska-lithium-goes-bankrup-first-victim-of-market-glut/


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## Jack Aubrey

sptrawler said:


> Another lithium producer on the ropes, from oversupply situation.
> 
> https://www.mining.com/nemaska-lithium-goes-bankrup-first-victim-of-market-glut/



If that demand-supply chart is accurate, predictions of a lithium revival in 2020/21 may be optimistic.


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## peter2

Thanks, useful info. I won't include any Li stocks in my 2020 CY selections (INR you're out).


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## sptrawler

Jack Aubrey said:


> If that demand-supply chart is accurate, predictions of a lithium revival in 2020/21 may be optimistic.
> View attachment 99252



The problem is batteries aren't that big and last 7-8 years, and machinery these days can extract a lot of material, so with it being a new market it will take quite a while before the demand outstrips supply.
Even China's buying of BEV has slowed considerably, so lithium demand for E.V's is slow, however on the medical front it is used to treat manic depression. 
So there is always hope, with climate change stressing everyone.


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## Padowan

sptrawler said:


> The problem is batteries aren't that big and last 7-8 years, and machinery these days can extract a lot of material, so with it being a new market it will take quite a while before the demand outstrips supply.
> Even China's buying of BEV has slowed considerably, so lithium demand for E.V's is slow, however on the medical front it is used to treat manic depression.
> So there is always hope, with climate change stressing everyone.



There are 500 years worth of Lithium reserves defined in the world today according to the US Geological survey, and as Elon Musk said Lithium is like the salt on a salad in a Lithium ion battery, it should be called a nickel and graphite battery. 
The major problem for the graphite hopefuls is that synthetic graphite is now preferred by battery manufacturers for consistency purposes.
The rapid lithium supply response from Australia through rebadging of existing tin and tantalum operations created a wave of low margin spodumene producers that have saturated the market and subsequently been hung out to dry by Chinese off takers who control all the conversion plants, whilst the lithium market dynamic is bad news for buy and hold investors there will be plenty of volatility for traders to observe in 2020.
From a commodity standpoint I’m pegging my hopes on nickel and copper resource players in 2020


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## qldfrog

Padowan said:


> There are 500 years worth of Lithium reserves defined in the world today according to the US Geological survey, and as Elon Musk said Lithium is like the salt on a salad in a Lithium ion battery, it should be called a nickel and graphite battery.
> The major problem for the graphite hopefuls is that synthetic graphite is now preferred by battery manufacturers for consistency purposes.
> The rapid lithium supply response from Australia through rebadging of existing tin and tantalum operations created a wave of low margin spodumene producers that have saturated the market and subsequently been hung out to dry by Chinese off takers who control all the conversion plants, whilst the lithium market dynamic is bad news for buy and hold investors there will be plenty of volatility for traders to observe in 2020.
> From a commodity standpoint I’m pegging my hopes on nickel and copper resource players in 2020



This, magnet free motors, new battery technology,  we might see trendy lithium and rare earths join the long list of black tulip style bubbles


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## peter2

At the beginning of 2020, lithium is hot. Having missed out in the initial rally I was waiting for a pull-back for a trade opportunity. It's not going to happen now. 

Chart of US Lithium ETF. This should further boost the ASX lithium producers.


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## Dona Ferentes

with Tesla shares at highs, https://www.aussiestockforums.com/threads/tsla-tesla-motors-inc-nasdaq.29331/ am trying to work out if it is a chicken/ egg relationship with Lithium (.... or a Pearl Harbour moment for renewables)

However, it all seems rather suddden







> a change in sentiment has seen lithium miners share prices soar in 2020 – even though we are only 9 trading days into the year. The Galaxy Resources Limited (ASX: GXY) share price is up 24%, the Orocobre Limited (ASX: ORE) share price is up 34% and the Pilbara Minerals Ltd (ASX: PLS) share price is up 19%. Could the sector be coming back to life or is just another short-term bounce for lithium?



but there are a few factors that may crimp the rise:







> The lithium spot price has yet to make a positive turn despite increasingly bullish news from the electric vehicle market. Lithium carbonate and lithium hydroxide continued to falter towards the end of 2019. Asian seaborne battery-grade hydroxide prices fell by 50 cents in December to less than $10 per kg (compared to $15 per kg in December 2018), while lithium carbonate prices held steady.





> European and US prices fell on competitive offers and slowing market activity. Domestic Chinese prices were unmoved with limited transitions as markets are winding down ahead of the Lunar New Year on January 25. Without improving spot prices, lithium fundamentals will not materially improve and miners will continue to be reluctant to ramp up production


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## peter2

Update on the lithium ETF (LIT). 
Hit by the virus selloff Mar 2020 but has bounced back quite quickly. There has been a minor BO-NH at 26.00 on 18th May 2020 (circled in the chart).




Why bother looking at this chart?  
Well, have a look at the charts of the main ASX Li producers (GXY, ORE, PLS).
GXY - still bumbling along sideways. 
PLS - has already started to rally but has accelerated since 19th May.
ORE - Bounced strongly starting at 19th May and has continued higher.


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## Dona Ferentes

general market sentiment? !


> The European Union has issued a plan to cut its dependence on Chinese supplies of rare earths, lithium batteries and solar cell components, as it tries to build a green energy economy that is not largely made in Beijing. Brussels will bring industry, governments and NGOs into a "*European Raw Materials Alliance*", which will refashion the continent's supply chains for up to 30 critical products, including those used to make wind turbines, fuel cells, solar panels, magnets, drones and batteries for electric vehicles. Lithium appears on the *EU critical list *for the first time...




_Beside the strategic challenge lies a simple supply-demand problem: in some cases, Chinese production simply won't be enough to meet soaring European appetite as the continent implements its shift to net-zero emissions by 2050. Although lithium isn't a short-term worry, for example, "in the medium-term, large investments are needed to avoid a significant market deficit beyond 2025", the EC said. The report estimates the continent will need *18 times its current demand for battery-grade lithium by 2030*, and up to 60 times as much by 2050._

_That's attracted ASX-listed players such as _European Metals Holdings (EMH), Vulcan Energy Resources (VUL), European Lithium (EUR) _and _Infinity Lithium (INF), _which have mining and processing projects on foot in countries such as Austria, the Czech Republic, Germany and Spain._

_The EC said it would identify mining and processing projects across the rare earths and other materials that could be up and running by 2025, and would be looking particularly closely at potential projects in what are now coal-mining regions._

_Recycling raw materials from used kit will form a separate part of the strategy. Neometals (NEO) is hoping to jump on this trend, last month announcing a 50-50 joint venture with German company SMS to recycle materials from used lithium-ion batteries_.
*https://www.afr.com/world/europe/eu...ndence-on-chinese-commodities-20200904-p55s9h*


----------



## Dona Ferentes

Dona Ferentes said:


> general market sentiment? !
> 
> _Beside the strategic challenge lies a simple supply-demand problem: in some cases, Chinese production simply won't be enough to meet soaring European appetite as the continent implements its shift to net-zero emissions by 2050. Although lithium isn't a short-term worry, for example, "in the medium-term, large investments are needed to avoid a significant market deficit beyond 2025", the EC said. The report estimates the continent will need *18 times its current demand for battery-grade lithium by 2030*, and up to 60 times as much by 2050._



I am finding a great disconnect between the glums and the hurray Henry's

Stuff like this, which isn't too dramatic, with Supply still exceeding demand past 2025, and a price per tonne going sideways)



and then the Joe Lowry's of the world https://www.globallithium.net/ painting a picture of shortfalls

and, tangentially, the miners of parallel commodities in the EV supply chain Ni, Mn and Co plus Graphite, mainly talking big, at least by 2025
Centaurus CTM about _*Nickel Sulphide *_for example, in today's Presentation
Talga TLG on graphite, and especially the European gigafactories (P3 of October CSIRO conference)
_*EU: Fastest Growing Battery Market*_
Germany, 2024 ... 16 GWh, later 24 GWh (northvolt VW)
Sweden, 2021 ..... 32 GWh, later 40 GWh (northvolt)
Norway, 2024 ..... 8GWh, later 32 GWh (Morrow)
Norway, 2023 .... Ramp up to 32 GWh + 2 GWh (Freyr)
Germany, 2022 ... 14 GWh, later 100 GWh (CATL)
Slovakia, 2024 .....10 GWh (inoBal)
United Kingdom, 2010 ... 2.5 GWh (envision)
Germany, 2021 ...... Ramp up to 8-12 GWh (microvasts)
United Kingdom, 2023 ... 10 GWh, later 35 (amt)
Germany, 2022 ....... 16 GWh (Farasis)
Germany, 2020 ....... 1 GWh (Leclanche)
Poland, 2018 ........... 15 GWh, later 65 GWh (LG)
Germany & France, 2022 ... 16 GWh, later 64 GWh (PSA Groupe)
Hungary, 2020 ........ 7.5 GWh, later 23.5 GWh (SK Innovation)
Germany, 2023 ....... 20 GWh, later 24 GWh (SVolt)
Hungary, 2018 ........ 3 GWh, later 15 GWh ((Samsung)
Germany, 202X ....... 4 GWh, later 8 GWh (TerraE)
Europe, 202X ........... Capacity unknown  (BYO)
Germany, 202X ....... Capacity unknown (Tesla)


----------



## fiftyeight

Dona Ferentes said:


> and then the Joe Lowry's of the world https://www.globallithium.net/ painting a picture of shortfalls




Recently found this podcast, great resource.

Who knows what level Elon is working at  BUT minimising the importance of Li as just the salt on the salad to using salt to transform the industry, I dunno seems like he knows there may be a bit of a supply issue here


----------



## greggles

greggles said:


> Yesterday, Morgan Stanley forecast that lithium prices would fall by 45% by 2021 as a result of increasing global supply. Another article at oilprice.com is similarly suggesting that the current lithium price is approaching bubble territory.




Interesting to re-visit old threads and look at old predictions. Morgan Stanley were on the money, but 45% was an underestimate. The price of lithium carbonate fell from US$148,000 a tonne to US$37,000 a tonne between February 2018 and October 2020, a period of approximately two and a half years.

However, the price of lithium carbonate has since turned up and is now around US$54,000 a tonne.

Has the lithium price now bottomed and could we see a good year for lithium in 2021?

Lots of lithium stocks are looking bullish today. Is the bottom in?


----------



## Cam019

*GLOBAL X LITHIUM & BATTERY TECH ETF [LIT]*

This chart is a thing of beauty. LIT dropped approximately 45% during the COVID sell off then proceeded to increase by around 394% over the next 9-10 months. Then, check the ascending triangle here. Specifically, look at the volume as the pattern builds. It's decreasing as the triangle builds from left to right. Perfect. Higher lows. No real supply. Could bode well for a lithium sector play on the ASX. Look for the strongest names!


----------



## qldfrog

https://finance.yahoo.com/news/gm-shakes-lithium-industry-california-120622813.html


----------



## qldfrog

qldfrog said:


> https://finance.yahoo.com/news/gm-shakes-lithium-industry-california-120622813.html



Green(er)lithium straight where it is needed, a serious competition for aussies miners.
It is in California so expects the usual socialist states drama: red green tape years of delays, etc..but on the other end, when competition is in OZ not that bad isn't it 🤣


----------



## Dona Ferentes

> _"The geothermal process involves extracting super-hot lithium-rich brine from reservoirs 8,000 feet (2.4 km) underground and using the heat to produce electricity, after which lithium is extracted from the brine._






> _"The brine is then reinjected into the earth, making the process more sustainable than open-pit mines and brine evaporation ponds, the two most-common existing methods .._. "




It all sounds so easy. And green.

It is a very salient point , though, that to produce non hydrocarbon energy requires a lot of effort. I was reading about *delithiated beta spodumene, *and that is going to be an issue worthy of another post.


----------



## Dona Ferentes

qldfrog said:


> Green(er) lithium straight where it is needed, a serious competition for aussies miners. ... but in the other end, when competition is in OZ ..



Is it a conflation to mix greener lithium with lower CO2 footprint? Is it the same thing?

_"open-pit mines and brine evaporation ponds" . _The advantage for Oz is hard rock spodumene_, _but like most extractive industries, it seems a messy business. What are the concentrations of Lithium in the rock; about 1% to 1.5% tops? Current plans for the big 3 lithium hydroxide plants in WA are for concentration at mine site to about 6%, then shipment to the plants for processing. Wesfarmers and SQM are talking of 1 million tonnes of  (benign) waste in tailings for the 50,000 tonne annual LiOH production. The others  have similar numbers

Wesfarmers chief executive of chemicals, energy and fertilisers Ian Hansen said the producers believed a material known as *delithiated beta spodumene* could be repurposed instead of dumped, and is investigating if aggregate for road and building construction is viable. But at present, WES plans are to retruck the waste from Kwinana 550km back to the minesite.

Albemarle, which is well on the way to finishing its hydroxide plant at Kemerton, had to scrap plans to dump the tailings at a tip site near the farming town of Dardanup after a backlash from local residents. Chris Ellison’s Mineral Resources, Albemarle’s junior partner in the Kemerton plant and the mothballed Wodgina lithium mine in the Pilbara, has since proposed carting the waste more than 550 kilometres out to its iron ore operations at Koolyanobbing.

Tianqi and partner IGO are due to start commissioning of their Kwinana plant and start production in late 2021. Not sure where their aluminosilicate waste will go.

The WA Environmental Protection Authority has approved plans for the tailings, but is there a better solution?

Pilbara Minerals are investigating the possibility of higher concentration of Lithium salts up to 35% through electric calcination (using Calix CLX technology) on site, such that the aluminosilicate waste remains on site (backfill?) then shipping concentrate to the processor. Of course, the PLS processor is in South Korea, so that is an upstream loss for WA.


----------



## qldfrog

Dona Ferentes said:


> Is it a conflation to mix greener lithium with lower CO2 footprint? Is it the same thing?
> 
> _"open-pit mines and brine evaporation ponds" . _The advantage for Oz is hard rock spodumene_, _but like most extractive industries, it seems a messy business. What are the concentrations of Lithium in the rock; about 1% to 1.5% tops? Current plans for the big 3 lithium hydroxide plants in WA are for concentration at mine site to about 6%, then shipment to the plants for processing. Wesfarmers and SQM are talking of 1 million tonnes of  (benign) waste in tailings for the 50,000 tonne annual LiOH production. The others  have similar numbers
> 
> Wesfarmers chief executive of chemicals, energy and fertilisers Ian Hansen said the producers believed a material known as *delithiated beta spodumene* could be repurposed instead of dumped, and is investigating if aggregate for road and building construction is viable. But at present, WES plans are to retruck the waste from Kwinana 550km back to the minesite.
> 
> Albemarle, which is well on the way to finishing its hydroxide plant at Kemerton, had to scrap plans to dump the tailings at a tip site near the farming town of Dardanup after a backlash from local residents. Chris Ellison’s Mineral Resources, Albemarle’s junior partner in the Kemerton plant and the mothballed Wodgina lithium mine in the Pilbara, has since proposed carting the waste more than 550 kilometres out to its iron ore operations at Koolyanobbing.
> 
> Tianqi and partner IGO are due to start commissioning of their Kwinana plant and start production in late 2021. Not sure where their aluminosilicate waste will go.
> 
> The WA Environmental Protection Authority has approved plans for the tailings, but is there a better solution?
> 
> Pilbara Minerals are investigating the possibility of higher concentration of Lithium salts up to 35% through electric calcination (using Calix CLX technology) on site, such that the aluminosilicate waste remains on site (backfill?) then shipping concentrate to the processor. Of course, the PLS processor is in South Korea, so that is an upstream loss for WA.



While noone among producers really care about carbon footprint, it can be used by the competition especially from these hot springs
No waste, you pump extract what you want then pump back..can not be better.
Obviously much cheaper then carting the stuff around as well.
Is already liquid, crushed,etc..where do our lithium domestic guys get the water from?
And no need to ship it over oceans to process
Basically a clear cut very big advantages..
I am sure there are issues like corrosion, concentration,etc but in my uninformed opinion, this is not going to be enough to shift the competitive advantage.
Will probably dump my long term lithium exposure here


----------



## Dona Ferentes

There were a couple of notions that stood out....
2400m deep. The hydrostatic head would be high. Got to put the waste fluid in another aquifer or you're just diluting the resource.
High temp... In fact ultra high. It's a cow to work with. Corrosion. Failure.
But the geothermal aspect has some merit and California has experience,


----------



## orr

Tesla's recently filed patent on Lithium extraction from clay might be worth 'digging into' for those with a longer term perspective...


----------



## Austwide

Could this white rock be Australia's next iron ore?
					

Australia's miners are hot property as global demand for electric vehicles soars, with the nation's bountiful lithium resources attracting particular attention.




					www.abc.net.au
				




From todays ABC News, also posted on PLS thread


----------



## greggles

Lithium set to be a star performer in 2022 as demand for electric vehicles heats up with sales set to quadruple to 14 million units in 2025, representing 16% of the global vehicle market.









						EV battery costs set to rise in 2022 as lithium price extends gains
					

Prices for battery-grade lithium carbonate in China jumped this year to a record high.




					www.mining.com


----------



## JohnDe

> "This buoyancy of the lithium price follows on from the market tightening as the electric vehicle ("EV") revolution accelerates, demand has eroded the oversupply seen in 2019 and 2020."
> 
> "This tightness in the market is expected to continue, with Credit Suisse saying that lithium demand might treble by 2025 from 2020 levels and that supply would be stretched to meet that demand, but higher prices were needed to incentivise the required supply response."
> 
> "World demand for lithium is forecast to increase from 305,000 tonnes lithium carbonate equivalent ("LCE") in 2020 to 452,000 tonnes in 2021 (48% increase YOY)."
> 
> "However global EV sales are expected to exceed 4.6 million in 2021 vs 3.2 million units in 2020, which would be a 44% increase for the year, which is comparable to the 43% increase from 2019 to 2020."
> 
> "The consequence of this dramatic change in consumer behaviour is that in 2023, demand for lithium is forecast to increase at a CAGR of 30% to 675,000 tonnes LCE from 2020 levels."
> 
> "By 2030, global battery demand is expected to increase 14-fold by 2030 with Statista estimating lithium demand of 1.8 million tonnes by 2030."







AUSTRALIA AND CHILE IN THE FRONT ROW









						Lithium Demand to Grow at Average Annual Rate of 30% in 2021-23, Bacanora Says -- Commodity Comment
					

By Jaime Llinares Taboada Bacanora Lithium PLC on Thursday said that lithium demand is expected to increase at a compound annual growth rate of 30% through...




					www.marketwatch.com


----------



## JohnDe

Some interesting information - 



> Lithium prices are rising as demand for the key ingredient in electric car batteries grows, amid a broader push to move away from oil and gas. But extraction of the metal is time consuming and potentially harmful to the environment, and plans to produce more have prompted protests.


----------



## Dona Ferentes

_As the world looks to electrify vehicles and store renewable power, one giant challenge looms: what will happen to all the old lithium batteries?_









						Lithium batteries' big unanswered question
					

As the world looks to electrify vehicles and store renewable power, one giant challenge looms: what will happen to all the old lithium batteries?




					www.bbc.com


----------



## JohnDe

I believe that the recycling of Lithium batteries will not be a problem, because we have time on our side. The majority of EV battery packs are good for 10+ years.

There are many companies like LIT Lithium Australia that are making recycling part of their long term business plan and have patented technologies.



> think of an Li battery like a bookshelf with many layers, and the lithium ions rapidly move across each shelf, cycling back each time to the top shelf – a process called intercalation. After years and years, the bookshelf naturally starts to break down and collapse. So when chemists like Meng dismantle an Li battery, that's the sort of degradation they see in the structure and materials.
> 
> "We can actually find the mechanisms, [and] either using heat or some kind of chemical treatment method, we can put the bookshelf back [together]," says Meng. "So we can let those recycled and refurbished materials go back to the assembly line to the [Li battery] factories to be made into new batteries."




And then there's the life cycle of the batteries; when no longer viable for EVs they are repurposed for electricity storage packs, like the one in SA built by Tesla, and home power storage.

Now is the time time for investors to look for the companies that will be able to take advantage of the battery future and recycling. 

Maybe we can make a list of listed companies. I've been a holder of LIT for several years, they have the technology, now they just need o implement it on a large scale.



> Lithium Australia NL (LIT, formerly Cobre Montana NL) is a developer of disruptive lithium extraction technologies. LIT has strategic alliances with a number of companies, potentially providing access to a diversified lithium mineral inventory. LIT plans for Energy-efficient recovery of lithium from mine waste to create primary battery chemicals, Conversion of those primary battery chemicals into cathode materials via VSPC Ltd and recycling of energy metals from spent LIBs and alkaline batteries, via Recycling and VSPC.


----------



## Sean K

I don't think tulips powered anything in the 1500s, but this looks nuts.


----------



## waterbottle

Nuts, but there's a fundamental shift here, coupled with a supply shock, cheap money and political will for Green energy.


----------



## Sean K

waterbottle said:


> Nuts, but there's a fundamental shift here, coupled with a supply shock, cheap money and political will for Green energy.




Yep, I get the fundamental position with lithium, but haven't we done this before? There are some lithium stocks that are, and will, produce lithium, but there's a lot who are just jumping on the bandwagon, with zero fundamentals. It's the uranium run in 2006/07 ish over again. The music stops. Play the game, but make sure you have a chair.


----------



## JohnDe

Sean K said:


> Yep, I get the fundamental position with lithium, but haven't we done this before? There are some lithium stocks that are, and will, produce lithium, but there's a lot who are just jumping on the bandwagon, with zero fundamentals. It's the uranium run in 2006/07 ish over again. The music stops. Play the game, but make sure you have a chair.




Agree, there will be plenty of cowboys talking up their lithium mining. However, I believe that there will be more opportunity in lithium than there was previously in uranium. 

Uranium sales had limited markets, and a few scares is/was enough to slow development of the nuclear industry which in urn reduced projected demand. Whereas lithium will be required for all the batteries that the vehicle manufacturers will require to keep their factories open reproducing vehicles, as their self imposed and government use-by dates on ICE vehicles comes ever closer.

Choosing the right stocks will require some homework, and I bet you a dollar that there will be a lot of lazy investors caught by cowboys.


----------



## waterbottle

Sean K said:


> Yep, I get the fundamental position with lithium, but haven't we done this before? There are some lithium stocks that are, and will, produce lithium, but there's a lot who are just jumping on the bandwagon, with zero fundamentals. It's the uranium run in 2006/07 ish over again. The music stops. Play the game, but make sure you have a chair.



True, it does remind me when crypto became a new thing and several companies were changing their names to include "block chain" or "crypto", resulting in massive gains on the markets. 
The same would be true for any bull run, but that doesn't negate the real potential that exists.


----------



## Logique2

JohnDe said:


> I believe that the *recycling of Lithium batteries* will not be a problem, because we have time on our side. The majority of EV battery packs are good for 10+ years.
> 
> There are many* companies *like LIT Lithium Australia that are making *recycling part of their long term business plan *and have patented technologies.
> 
> And then there's the life cycle of the batteries; when no longer viable for EVs they are repurposed for electricity storage packs, like the one in SA built by Tesla, and home power storage.
> 
> Now is the time time for investors to look for the companies that will be able to take advantage of the battery future and recycling.
> 
> Maybe we can make a list of listed companies. I've been a holder of LIT for several years, they have the technology, now they just need o implement it on a large scale.



Also I've got Neometals NMT:ASX in the 2022 ASF Tipping.


----------



## JohnDe

_"The United States has a lithium supply problem. Nearly every major automaker has announced a transition to electric vehicles, Tesla delivered almost one million cars in 2021, and electric vehicle companies like Rivian and Lucid are rolling new models off the line.

In order to power all of these EVs, we will need batteries, lots of them. Electric vehicle growth will be responsible for more than 90% of demand for lithium by 2030, according to Benchmark Mineral Intelligence. But lithium is also in our phones, computers, ceramics, lubricants, pharmaceuticals, and is essential for solar and wind energy storage. This vital mineral in rechargeable batteries has earned the name “white gold” and the rush is on.

But today, the U.S. is far behind, with only 1% of global lithium being mined and processed in the U.S....."_


----------



## Springs

As the white gold roars (Lithium) so do a few today as everybody scrambling for supplies I’m watching closely MRR , AS2 , BNR just to many green on the screen . Australia in a good position to keep up with new discoveries more research need always dyor &DD Springs


----------



## JohnDe

Springs said:


> As the white gold roars (Lithium) so do a few today as everybody scrambling for supplies I’m watching closely MRR , AS2 , BNR just to many green on the screen . Australia in a good position to keep up with new discoveries more research need always dyor &DD Springs




Those three aren't big into lithium, more like a 'look I have some' than anything else.  Price rise is more likely their size in Gold, copper and Nickel.

But yes, there is signs of a huge lithium-rush and everyone wants in on it.

Be careful.


----------



## bk1

One of the Directors of MRR, George Karageorge, was one of the original geologists on PLS.
They are looking in the right area with people who know what prospective pegmatites look like.


----------



## bk1

A lot of buying of BNR just before the trading halt today, up 30% on the day.
Hold


----------



## Sean K

Lithium still running. When's the supply demand and shortfall going to be matched with increased output and/or new mines?


----------



## Sean K

Is this going to correct at some stage? Surely it must. Will put pressure on Li stocks when it eventually does. Just a matter of time. I guess???


----------



## JohnDe

Some explanation here -


----------



## Sean K

JohnDe said:


> Some explanation here -





So, from the panel:

Supply shortfall to remain.
Takes a long time to bring new projects on.
Uptake of EVs faster than expected.
EVs are actually good, ICE vehicle makers didn't think they were any good.
ICE vehicle makers late to the party and trying to catch up.
Covid and supply issues raising prices.
Labour force missing due to lockouts and Covid.
Improved battery technology.
Ni and Co expensive, Li was cheaper, more price increases to come.
Not sure if new supply will match demand.
May constrain new cars coming on.
No current replacement for Li for battery tech, but others may be coming.
Cost of Li in a battery not the major cost.
Current prices not long term contracts but indicates supply demand situation.
Toyota spending $70b on EVs by end of 2020s. Double of earlier target of 12 mths ago.
Saudis pivoting and looking for supply.
Ford doubled sale target for EV pickups - F150.
Paradigm shift in US auto market and late to the party.
Investment will speed things up but Li deposits not easy to bring into production.
Many different types of deposit makes chemical process difficult. Every project different.
More funding coming in compared to last run on Li. Traditional banks weren't financing. Now more interested.
Demand much greater than possible supply.
More Teslas's coming on.
General battery storage use to significantly increase.


----------



## JohnDe

Sean K said:


> So, from the panel:
> 
> Supply shortfall to remain.
> Takes a long time to bring new projects on.
> Uptake of EVs faster than expected.
> EVs are actually good, ICE vehicle makers didn't think they were any good.
> ICE vehicle makers late to the party and trying to catch up.
> Covid and supply issues raising prices.
> Labour force missing due to lockouts and Covid.
> Improved battery technology.
> Ni and Co expensive, Li was cheaper, more price increases to come.
> Not sure if new supply will match demand.
> May constrain new cars coming on.
> No current replacement for Li for battery tech, but others may be coming.
> Cost of Li in a battery not the major cost.
> Current prices not long term contracts but indicates supply demand situation.
> Toyota spending $70b on EVs by end of 2020s. Double of earlier target of 12 mths ago.
> Saudis pivoting and looking for supply.
> Ford doubled sale target for EV pickups - F150.
> Paradigm shift in US auto market and late to the party.
> Investment will speed things up but Li deposits not easy to bring into production.
> Many different types of deposit makes chemical process difficult. Every project different.
> More funding coming in compared to last run on Li. Traditional banks weren't financing. Now more interested.
> Demand much greater than possible supply.
> More Teslas's coming on.
> General battery storage use to significantly increase.




Yes.

As long as consumers still want to change over to EV’s and car manufacturers race to catch up to Tesla, Lithium demand will be high.


----------



## Kas85

JohnDe said:


> Yes.
> 
> As long as consumers still want to change over to EV’s and car manufacturers race to catch up to Tesla, Lithium demand will be high.



Anybody know why lithium stocks have fallen so much lately? For example Allkem, Liontown, AZL? I started investing in lithium and they literally plummeted into double digit negative immediately!


----------



## JohnDe

Kas85 said:


> Anybody know why lithium stocks have fallen so much lately? For example Allkem, Liontown, AZL? I started investing in lithium and they literally plummeted into double digit negative immediately!




I don’t know much about those miners. Did a quick search of LTR and the chart looks ok, the news is better. Maybe you invested at the wrong price point.









						ASX adds 1.1pc: Liontown, Vicinity, CSL soar
					

Australian shares climb; China’s January factory inflation falls to slowest pace since July; Treasury Wine, Vicinity Centres, Pro Medicus leap; Netwealth, EML Payments dive; Liontown and Tesla sign lithium supply agreement. Follow the latest here.




					www.afr.com


----------



## Sean K

Kas85 said:


> Anybody know why lithium stocks have fallen so much lately? For example Allkem, Liontown, AZL? I started investing in lithium and they literally plummeted into double digit negative immediately!




A natural correction I would say. A lot of people have made a lot of money the past year on these and may have just thought it was time to take some money off the table. Stocks may have overshot their intrinsic or perceived value or there's worry that the price of lithium was turning into a bubble. The chart posted above does look very tulip-like. The major difference is there's some fundamentals behind the use of lithium compared to a flower. So, in my opinion, a healthy correction. Might see more downside as more profits are taken. A worst case scenario is the price of lithium takes a dive for a few weeks which will see punters run for the door, but a complete breakdown is very unlikely due to the dot points mentioned above. But, I'm not a lithium expert in the slightest. Learning myself.


----------



## peter2

Big news overnight concerning the huge lithium miner Albemarle Corp (*ALB*-us).  Stock price tumbles -20% after huge increase in capital costs was announced in their recent qrtly report. Production met guidance, sales beat guidance but capital expenditure went through the roof. 

All is not perfect for lithium producers even with the booming lithium prices. 

btw: The lithium ETF (*LIT*.us) holds 12.2% *ALB* and is it's largest holding. This price shock knocked *LIT* down a peg as well.


----------



## waterbottle

peter2 said:


> Big news overnight concerning the huge lithium miner Albemarle Corp (*ALB*-us).  Stock price tumbles -20% after huge increase in capital costs was announced in their recent qrtly report. Production met guidance, sales beat guidance but capital expenditure went through the roof.
> 
> All is not perfect for lithium producers even with the booming lithium prices.
> 
> btw: The lithium ETF (*LIT*.us) holds 12.2% *ALB* and is it's largest holding. This price shock knocked *LIT* down a peg as well.




Yes, I saw that and it looks like ALB lead falls in other lithium miners.
I haven't had time to look until the specifics but clearly this is an industry with lots of potential and risk.

Two major types of lithium mines exist - those that mine from ore (spodumene) and those extracting from brine. 
The latter is almost exclusively in Chile (at this stage) which has had issues with water restrictions and the risk of mines being nationalised. (I believe ALB is in this camp but also owns a stake in a spodumene mine too).


----------



## bk1

waterbottle said:


> but also owns a stake in a spodumene mine too



That would be the largest highest grade hard rock lithium mine in the world, Greenbushes.
49% JV.


----------



## Sean K




----------



## peter2

Don't take your eye's off the lithium prize. There were lots of high volume bullish bars in the lithium sector on Friday (18/3/22).
*AZL, ESS, GLN, CXO, GL1, LTR, NMT, PLS, VUL (*bleah*), AGY, AVZ, EUR, INR, LEL, LKE, LPI, NVX, MNS *etc* . . . *

That's a lot of money going back into this sector.


----------



## Sean K

Anyone else see a tulip here?


----------



## JohnDe

Mr Biden said he would also invoke the Defence Production Act – a Korean War-era national security mobilisation law – to boost domestic output of minerals used in batteries for electric vehicles and other clean-energy technology


----------



## waterbottle

JohnDe said:


> Mr Biden said he would also invoke the Defence Production Act – a Korean War-era national security mobilisation law – to boost domestic output of minerals used in batteries for electric vehicles and other clean-energy technology



Here's to hoping Canadian suppliers will get a benefit....


----------



## CityIndex

waterbottle said:


> Here's to hoping Canadian suppliers will get a benefit....



It should also be interesting to see how lithium stocks on the ASX react over the mid/long term.

After their strong performance this week, can the news help them sustain a rally, or will gains be capped due to a potential decrease in US dependency on importing minerals for battery tech?


----------



## greggles

Mexico setting the stage for the nationalisation of the country's lithium reserves.









						Mexico’s lower house backs lithium nationalization plans
					

The proposed law, now in the hands of the Senate, bans all private participation in the exploration and mining of the battery metal.




					www.mining.com


----------



## Dona Ferentes

_One person who has been warning of a lithium shortage for a while is Joe Lowry, a somewhat cantankerous expert who regularly draws mining bigwigs and analysts to his podcast. Known in mining circles as “Mr Lithium”, the North Carolina resident has been in the business for decades._

_Since striking out on his own in 2012, Mr Lowry has been a consultant to mining companies and an investor. He owns shares of companies including Tesla and Lithium Americas._

Here’s a summary of a recent conversation with Lowry on the EV battery supply chain:

*Q: You wrote a paper at the end of 2019 saying demand for lithium would outstrip supply. It looks like lithium prices have started to reflect that. What do you see?*

A: In the next two years, even though there will be significant growth in supply, it will be less than demand, so the gap will just continue to grow.

It’s simple maths. It’s like, the bus in front of me is going 50 miles per hour, I’m going 45 mph, but I’m saying I’m gonna catch it in 2025.

I believe there will be a day in the future when lithium is in oversupply, but it won’t be in this decade.

*Q: Why will it take so long?*

A: You can build a battery factory in two years, but it takes up to a decade to bring on a lithium project.

It’s not a commodity; it’s a specialty chemical. Lithium is often compared with iron ore or other major commodities, and it behaves nothing like that. The auto industry is just finally figuring that out. Lithium qualification for an auto company can take over a year.

*Q: Why?*

A: It has to go through cycle testing. If you’re going to put something into a car that could ignite if the chemistry is wrong, you kind of want to know.

*Q: Is the auto industry prepared for that long lead time?*

A: I take everybody’s gigawatt-hour projections and take them back to the lithium required to do it, and most of them are so far over what the lithium industry can supply. I don’t believe demand is going to be destroyed. Ultimately, I believe it’s just deferred.

The additional production this year will be less than 150,000 tons. So then, it’s who gets the material? Whose EV models don’t get made?

In a 2050 scenario, there’s time for everything to happen that needs to happen. But in 2030, it just isn’t going to happen. Just look at the mess we’re in from a lithium supply standpoint with less than 10% EV penetration.

_Lowry’s predictions chime with other assessments. BloombergNEF forecasts prices of lithium carbonate and hydroxide – the main lithium chemicals used in battery production – will be higher still by 2030 as a result of projected supply deficits._

_Metal supply scarcity poses a more immediate challenge to car makers. Battery prices are expected to rise slightly this year, ending a long run of declines. That will delay the point at which EVs achieve price parity with combustion engine cars, potentially by as much as two years, to 2026, according to BNEF._

Washington Post


----------



## Dona Ferentes

_Shares in lithium miners in Australia and the US have fallen steeply._

_Pilbara Minerals -17.46 per cent to $2.4_
_Sayona Mining -11.36 per cent to 19.5¢_
_Liontown Resources -20.5% to $1.125_
_Core Lithium -17.2% to $1.15_
_The falls come after US investment bank Goldman Sachs warned of a “sharp correction” in the price of lithium, with the metal averaging under $US54,000 a ton this year, down from a spot price of over $US60,000. It will fall further to an average of just over $US16,000 in 2023, the Wall Street bank said.

Goldman Sachs said the price of three key battery metals – cobalt, lithium and nickel – will drop over the next two years after investors wanting exposure to the green-energy transition piled in too quickly...._


----------



## Dona Ferentes

greggles said:


> Mexico setting the stage for the nationalisation of the country's lithium reserves.
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> Mexico’s lower house backs lithium nationalization plans
> 
> 
> The proposed law, now in the hands of the Senate, bans all private participation in the exploration and mining of the battery metal.
> 
> 
> 
> 
> www.mining.com



but depends on the politics and who is in power, especiaally in Latin America.









						As rivals turn screws on mining, Argentina puts out welcome mat
					

Government turns to capital-control loopholes and tax breaks, eyeing export boost as neighbours look to raise mine taxes.




					www.batimes.com.ar


----------



## peter2

Today's selloff is unlikely to be due to the GS report. I'll accept that there will be more supply going into the market in a years time and prices will drift lower as more lithium is produced.

Today's selloff is pure panic selling. Possibly a hedge or commodity fund blowing up?  I'll be closely watching the US Li producer *ALB* tonight.


----------



## bk1

It wasn't just GS. Credit Suisse called a similar top on Lithium and have a Neutral call now on PLS and AKE.
Report came out on Tuesday.


----------



## Cam019

All the institutions got their buy orders filled at amazing prices. They needed sellside liquidity to buy into!

 Now to take the sector to the moon!


----------



## Boggo

Eye on Lithium: Canaccord mining analyst disagrees with Goldman Sachs - 'lithium supply always disappoints' - Stockhead
					

Lithium prices have gone parabolic since the bull market kicked off in January 2021, but a bearish Goldman Sach research report has brought it all to a halt… for now.




					stockhead.com.au


----------



## Garpal Gumnut

I was doing some intensive meditation today and missed all the movement on Lithium, the XAO and matters financial. 

I wonder what is the next boom sector? 

Or is it still Lithium?



> From wonder into wonder existence opens.   Lao Tzu




gg


----------



## waterbottle

Hard to say what drove this move. Ganfeng and other Chinese battery makers own significant portions of these miners (including some overseas). Some are attributing this to a Chinese car manufacturer acquiring 6 lithium mines in Africa.
There is some truth to the Goldman Sachs report - higher prices will obviously encourage more miners to enter the industry and therefore reduce the price, although I doubt we'd have enough miners entering in the next 1-2 years to make a substantial impact particularly when there is now a worldwide target for EVs to outsell ICEs by 2030...
The other consideration is that this downward move may be part of a market-wide retreat. 10 year bond yields now approach 3% again. Speculative growth stocks likely to continue to suffer in this climate, particularly when they have no other means for returning value to investors by way of dividends.


----------



## waterbottle

Not sure who to believe now, Toyota or Goldman Sachs?!









						Supply snags threaten EV revolution, top Toyota scientist says
					

Surging battery prices and shortages of metals and materials are likely to last for some time, Toyota’s chief scientist warned.




					www.mining.com


----------



## sptrawler

waterbottle said:


> Not sure who to believe now, Toyota or Goldman Sachs?!
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> Supply snags threaten EV revolution, top Toyota scientist says
> 
> 
> Surging battery prices and shortages of metals and materials are likely to last for some time, Toyota’s chief scientist warned.
> 
> 
> 
> 
> www.mining.com



My guess is, unless they come up with a completely new higher energy density battery than the lithium based ones, the demand will be huge there are a hell of a lot of cars to be replaced and add to that home and grid storage.
Best of luck expecting a glut of resources in the near future and by the time the glut arrives if it ever does, the old batteries will be dying and the population and demand will have increased, sounds like a Sydney house price scenario to me, where there obviously is never enough of the product to satisfy demand.
What the car manufacturers are worried about IMO is, how to build E.V's cheap enough that people will buy them, even if it is regulated vehicle manufacturers work on high turnover, not high margins.
From the manufacturers perspective, it really doesn't matter if the Govt's regulate ICE cars out, if the plebs can't afford to buy the E.V, the manufacturer can't sell either.


----------



## waterbottle

sptrawler said:


> My guess is, unless they come up with a completely new higher energy density battery than the lithium based ones, the demand will be huge there are a hell of a lot of cars to be replaced and add to that home and grid storage.
> Best of luck expecting a glut of resources in the near future and by the time the glut arrives if it ever does, the old batteries will be dying and the population and demand will have increased, sounds like a Sydney house price scenario to me, where there obviously is never enough of the product to satisfy demand.
> What the car manufacturers are worried about IMO is, how to build E.V's cheap enough that people will buy them, even if it is regulated vehicle manufacturers work on high turnover, not high margins.
> From the manufacturers perspective, it really doesn't matter if the Govt's regulate ICE cars out, if the plebs can't afford to buy the E.V, the manufacturer can't sell either.




Agreed, I was being facetious 
I'm still a believer in Lithium remaining in high demand for many years to came, mostly because the *demand* side of the equation has not yet been quantified and is essentially unlimited at this stage (see: green transition) whilst the *supply* is finite and difficult to obtain given it's a refined product as opposed to its counter-part commodities.
Having said that, lithium miners are leaves in the wind, susceptible to market forces. Either batten down the hatches or get ready to pick up some scraps as speculative stocks don't look like they'll be able to weather the QT storm.


----------



## sptrawler

waterbottle said:


> Agreed, I was being facetious
> I'm still a believer in Lithium remaining in high demand for many years to came, mostly because the *demand* side of the equation has not yet been quantified and is essentially unlimited at this stage (see: green transition) whilst the *supply* is finite and difficult to obtain given it's a refined product as opposed to its counter-part commodities.
> Having said that, lithium miners are leaves in the wind, susceptible to market forces. Either batten down the hatches or get ready to pick up some scraps as speculative stocks don't look like they'll be able to weather the QT storm.



I am only interested in lithium stocks that can value add, pure miners IMO are not my bag.


----------



## waterbottle

sptrawler said:


> I am only interested in lithium stocks that can value add, pure miners IMO are not my bag.



I'd be interested to hear which miners would qualify as 'value'


----------



## Telamelo

waterbottle said:


> I'd be interested to hear which miners would qualify as 'value'



One that comes to mind is TUL (not as yet a miner) with potential lithium exposure/scope (numerous assay results pending as we speak from MIN joint venture)


----------



## sptrawler

waterbottle said:


> I'd be interested to hear which miners would qualify as 'value'



The only lithium stocks I have is IGO and WES.


----------



## Sean K

sptrawler said:


> The only lithium stocks I have is IGO and WES.




The only other long term play I see adding to this value proposition is AKE. I see most of the Li explorers like the uranium plays in the mid 2000s. You might make some money (maybe lots) in the short term, but you need to be in production to be a longer term value play, IMO.


----------



## Boggo

Goldman Sachs got it wrong ?


----------



## JohnDe

Boggo said:


> Goldman Sachs got it wrong ?




Maybe that was intentional 

_"Lithium stocks suffered an astonishing selldown after major investment bank Goldman Sachs called the top of the battery metals boom in a note last week."_​
The problem with lithium shares is that there is lithium everywhere.


----------



## Dona Ferentes

JohnDe said:


> The problem with lithium shares is that there is lithium everywhere.



With Exploration... absolutely true. In WA, you could stick your finger into the ground almost anywhere and find a dyke.


----------



## Boggo

JohnDe said:


> Maybe that was intentional
> 
> ​




Seems to be the consensus.


----------



## Stockbailx

There's got to be only one way Lithium is heading as a commodity and that's north. A lot of prospects for lithium as demand grows. Hear on the news constructing new mines here in Australia...Check out Report from Fat prophets;



			https://www.fatprophets.com.au/wp-content/uploads/2022/06/Lithium-report.pdf?utm_medium=email&utm_campaign=EOFY%2022%20-%20lithium%20report&utm_content=EOFY%2022%20-%20lithium%20report+CID_7c1a1c5f2c009a91ec1a8548d7f8fba4&utm_source=Campaign%20Monitor&utm_term=VIEW%20REPORT
		


*Lithium; short-term noise long-term poise*
The debate on global warming has now just about passed, with the verdict that the use
of carbon based energy sources to generate the worlds’ current and future energy needs
is causing harm. As a result, the emergence of winners and losers in the energy complex
is slowly starting to take shape, which will see the more traditional energy sources
moving away from centre stage and be replaced by new age energy sources. Right
throughout this period and beyond one thing is certain, the world will still need to
generate energy.
One commodity in lithium, has stepped into the energy complex mix in a major way
over the past six years. This early step up by lithium has been driven by the auto
industry, as it now moves away from carbon powerplants to carbonless powerplants for
mainstream production lines. The following pie charts shows the forecast impact of this
swing on the demand for lithium out to 2030:




The demands on lithium from E-transportation, primarily, reached 306,000 tonnes in
2020, with the electric vehicle (EV) sector making up just 44%, of the demand for

lithium. As Members can see from the above charts, E-transportation in just nine years is
forecast to expand to 86% of lithium demand and push traditional markets back to just
10%. In lithium tonnage terms, the forecast for 2030 stands at 2.4 million tonnes, and
equates to a compound annual growth rate of 23.6%. Under this growth scenario, by
2030 there will have to be some 39 Allkem size producers spitting out lithium.


----------



## JohnDe

Stockybailz said:


> There's got to be only one way Lithium is heading as a commodity and that's north. A lot of prospects for lithium as demand grows. Hear on the news constructing new mines here in Australia...Check out Report from Fat prophets;
> 
> 
> 
> https://www.fatprophets.com.au/wp-content/uploads/2022/06/Lithium-report.pdf?utm_medium=email&utm_campaign=EOFY%2022%20-%20lithium%20report&utm_content=EOFY%2022%20-%20lithium%20report+CID_7c1a1c5f2c009a91ec1a8548d7f8fba4&utm_source=Campaign%20Monitor&utm_term=VIEW%20REPORT
> 
> 
> 
> *Lithium; short-term noise long-term poise*
> The debate on global warming has now just about passed, with the verdict that the use
> of carbon based energy sources to generate the worlds’ current and future energy needs
> is causing harm. As a result, the emergence of winners and losers in the energy complex
> is slowly starting to take shape, which will see the more traditional energy sources
> moving away from centre stage and be replaced by new age energy sources. Right
> throughout this period and beyond one thing is certain, the world will still need to
> generate energy.
> One commodity in lithium, has stepped into the energy complex mix in a major way
> over the past six years. This early step up by lithium has been driven by the auto
> industry, as it now moves away from carbon powerplants to carbonless powerplants for
> mainstream production lines. The following pie charts shows the forecast impact of this
> swing on the demand for lithium out to 2030:
> 
> 
> View attachment 142663
> 
> The demands on lithium from E-transportation, primarily, reached 306,000 tonnes in
> 2020, with the electric vehicle (EV) sector making up just 44%, of the demand for
> 
> lithium. As Members can see from the above charts, E-transportation in just nine years is
> forecast to expand to 86% of lithium demand and push traditional markets back to just
> 10%. In lithium tonnage terms, the forecast for 2030 stands at 2.4 million tonnes, and
> equates to a compound annual growth rate of 23.6%. Under this growth scenario, by
> 2030 there will have to be some 39 Allkem size producers spitting out lithium.




So a few more years and we should see much higher prices for Lithium, which should translate to increase SP of quality miners.

Though that will depend on how many new miners get involved and how fast they all start producing. Betting on Lithium prices going up is a 50/50 chance. There is no shortage of the mineral, only the production.
​_"Beijing called for an increase in output from lithium smelters and miners to relieve the rally that saw prices reach record-highs of 497,500 yuan/tonne in March."_​


> Lithium carbonate prices in China were at 472,500 yuan/tonne in early June, rising from the three-month lows of 457,700 that held through May amid a rebound in demand projections as strict Covid lockdowns in Shanghai were relaxed. As cases were seen lower in major Chinese cities, investors ramped up bets that electric vehicle manufacturers will return to increased capacity after lockdowns halted auto production during April, as lower demand during the period saw new energy passenger vehicles plummet 40% when compared to March. Despite the blip during the start of Q2, carbonate prices remain nearly 70% higher year-to-date on the back of a global effort to reduce carbon emissions, while gasoline prices are at all-time highs. To match the soaring trend in the industry, Beijing called for an increase in output from lithium smelters and miners to relieve the rally that saw prices reach record-highs of 497,500 in March.
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> Lithium - 2022 Data - 2017-2021 Historical - 2023 Forecast - Price - Quote - Chart
> 
> 
> Lithium carbonate price in China rose to a record-high 500,500 yuan/tonne in September, soaring 80% year-to-date as surging demand coincided with lower supply. Data from the the Shanghai Metals Markets pointed to a 108% surge in carbonate imports in China, as the rebound in economic activity...
> 
> 
> 
> 
> tradingeconomics.com


----------



## JohnDe

I've been expecting a drop, but not by half 

_The price of lithium is expected to almost halve in the next year__, as more mines ramp up production across the world. The metal is the core component of EV batteries and experts say the price drop should mean cheaper electric cars._​


----------



## peter2

Today's news of the 8% investment in Vulcan Energy (*VUL*) by European carmaker, Stellantis has fired up interest in lithium once more. It'll be interesting to see if this demand continues. Have we seen the bottom for lithium stocks?


----------



## waterbottle

peter2 said:


> Today's news of the 8% investment in Vulcan Energy (*VUL*) by European carmaker, Stellantis has fired up interest in lithium once more. It'll be interesting to see if this demand continues. Have we seen the bottom for lithium stocks?



Possible, but I'm betting there's still a bit to go as they get held back by the rest of the market. 
A couple of developments:
1. Musk highlighting the fact that EV manufacturers may need to become miners to overcome the high cost of lithium. Will likely spur investment from automakers, as has occurred in the rare earth space with MOUs.
2. Piedemont Lithium now looking for overseas lithium mines after its failure in the US. Likely part of a trend where we see consolidation in the sector as miners fail and are absorbed by others
3. US gov driving multinational commitments to EV targets and CO2 reductions.


----------



## Stockbailx

_share prices may fall, but lithium is rocksteady…the opportunity in price disconnects…lithium should be on your radar…_

It was another rough day of trading for commodities on Thursday. But of all the sectors hit, lithium stocks once again bore the brunt of the sell-off.
The overall outlook doesn’t align with this dim view. The long-term demand for lithium and many other battery metals simply isn’t going away.
In fact, the outlook for combustion engine vehicles is what investors should really be worried about.
How that will pan out, and what it means for automakers, though, is unknown. After all, electric cars are easily the biggest disruption the automotive industry has had to face in a long time.
Because at the end of the day, opinions on demand aside, price is always going to be the leading indicator. And when it comes to lithium, that price isn’t budging...


----------



## Dona Ferentes

.... "in a move that will boost interest in lithium from Australia and other regions, California will impose a flat tax on production of the key battery metal from the huge untapped Salton Sea.

California’s Democrat Party government and Governor, Gavin Newsom justify the tax as a way of paying for environmental remediation projects in the area east of Los Angeles.

Opponents say the government is trying to tax a gold goose before it has been born.

Governor Gavin Newsom approved the tax as part of a must-pass state budget on Thursday. The state’s legislature had signed off on the new tax during deliberations on Wednesday night.

The tax is structured as a flat-rate per tonne impost and will go into effect in January, 2023. It will be reviewed every year, and state officials have agreed to study potentially switching to a percentage-based tax.

California’s tax is aimed at plans to mine the huge lithium reserves in the Salton Sea region, east of Los Angles, an area heavily damaged in the past century by years of heavy pesticide use by farmers.

Funds generated from the tax are earmarked in part to cleanup of the area but as yet no mining projects are happening. There are a number of gepothermal power plants operating in the area.

The Salton Sea brine deposits are easier to process using a geothermal brine process more environmentally friendly than open-pit mines (as in Australia) and brine evaporation ponds (used in Chile and Argentina).

Two of the three lithium companies working around the Salton Sea have warned the tax will scare off investors and customers.

Both said they may leave the state for lithium-rich brine deposits in Utah or Arkansas.

The privately-held Controlled Thermal Resources Ltd said the tax would force it to miss deadlines to deliver lithium to General Motors Co by 2024 and Stellantis NV by 2025.

EnergySource Minerals LLC, also privately held, said it halted discussions with potential financiers and an automaker.


> “_Supporting a tax that ensures lithium imports from China are less expensive for auto manufacturers to secure will devastate this promising Californian industry before it has begun,_” said Rod Colwell, Controlled Thermal’s CEO said in a statement.




Energy Source, which owns one of the 11 geothermal plants around the Salton Sea, plans to produce lithium by April of 2024.

Berkshire Hathaway, which owns the other 10 geothermal plants under the subsidiary Cal Energy, plans to produce lithium on a mass scale by 2027.

The Salton Sea alone has the estimated potential to provide 40% of the lithium used by the world, which would make it the largest source in the world.









						EU Keen to Drive ICE Vehicles off the Road – ShareCafe
					

EU countries this week okayed proposed laws to combat climate change including one requiring new cars to emit zero CO2 from 2035, making it impossible to sell internal-combustion engine cars from that date.




					www.sharecafe.com.au


----------



## basilio

Excellent analysis of Chiles role in the supply of Copper and Lithium both of which are in high demand for electrifying cars and industry.









						Mineral rush: How Chile's mega mines are critical to our electric future
					

Mineral rush: How Chile's mega mines are critical to our electric future




					news.sky.com


----------



## rcw1

basilio said:


> Excellent analysis of Chiles role in the supply of Copper and Lithium both of which are in high demand for electrifying cars and industry.
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> Mineral rush: How Chile's mega mines are critical to our electric future
> 
> 
> Mineral rush: How Chile's mega mines are critical to our electric future
> 
> 
> 
> 
> news.sky.com



Good evening basilio
The author (s) summed it up with six words,  _"Saudi Arabia of the 21st century."_

Kind regards
rcw1


----------



## greggles

Rio Tinto on the hunt for lithium assets. No doubt they will be running the ruler over most of the ASX-listed small and medium cap lithium miners and explorers. 









						‘Looking at opportunities everywhere’: Rio Tinto on the hunt for more lithium assets
					

Rio Tinto is hunting for opportunities to grow its exposure to the electric-battery material lithium and is weighing an earlier start-up of a mine in Argentina.




					www.smh.com.au


----------



## Dona Ferentes

and more pile-ons from Tesla; speaking at the Clean Energy Summit in Sydney, Robyn Denholm believes Australia’s greatest opportunity this century is to be a global leader in the battery supply chain, building on its resources of lithium and other minerals.



> “I _can’t think of a technology that is more important than lithium-ion batteries right now,_” she said._ “The world cannot build battery cells fast enough. It may be the rate-limiting actor for tackling climate change.”_



Ms Denholm said Tesla _expected to need more than 3 terawatt/hours of batteries for its worldwide electric cars and battery storage fleet by 2030, which is triple the total industry output of 1 TWh today._

..


----------



## JohnDe

Lithium stocks up. PLL currently at 4.88%



> Lithium stocks are among the biggest movers on the Australian sharemarket and in the materials sector.
> 
> Lake Resources in the S&P/ASX 200's top performer, up 10.5 per cent to $0.89, while Allkem roars 4 per cent to $11.72.
> 
> Core Lithium is up 2.6 per cent to $1.19 and Pilbara Minerals edges 1.6 per cent higher as it also announces that Dale Henderson will join the company as its new CEO, following the departure of Ken Brinsden at the end of July
> 
> The lithium companies are all outperforming the broader materials sector, which is up by 0.8 per cent.
> 
> 
> 
> https://www.theaustralian.com.au/business/trading-day/asx-200-to-open-higher-amid-rba-rates-housing-focus/live-coverage/ea1f7ef1af344ad2499e46a2db57e871


----------



## rcw1

Good morning,
rcw1 holding AKE at the moment.

Kind regards
rcw1

Published New Corp today (30/08/22):

UBS reiterates its overweight recommendation for lithium miners as it boosts its lithium price forecasts after an in-depth bottom-up analysis of lithium supply.

After reviewing over 100 projects representing about 80 per cent of supply by 2025, the Swiss investment bank boosts its long term lithium prices by 10 to 38 per cent and also lifts its short-term prices by 20 to 70 per cent for 2023-26.

"We have revised spodumene prices up from US$800 to US$1,100 a tonnet, battery grade lithium carbonate up from US$13,000 to US$15,000 tonne and battery grade hydroxide prices up from US$14,500 to US$16,000 a tonne," say UBS analysts including Levi Spry.

They expect lithium demand to grow 8 times by 2030 and see supplies "struggling to keep up", with new supply seen as is higher cost and more technically demanding.

"We see supply growth coming from both brownfield expansions and new greenfield
projects but at higher cost and risk, underpinning our higher long term prices," the analysts say.

They retain a preference for producers over developers for their lower risk profile and leverage to current very high prices.

They prefer the miners that are currently producing – AKE, IGO, MIN, ALB, Ganfeng – versus the developers which are not exposed to current prices.


----------



## explod

PLS the best producer atm and a local so no sovereign risk.

But agree overall with the report.


----------



## Sean K

RIO is shopping around for more lithium.


----------



## greggles

Lithium price hitting new highs. Rapidly increasing demand expected to create supply deficits and high prices into the foreseeable future.

But simply having lithium assets won't be enough. Too many companies are dipping their toes in by acquiring tenements but are not developing mines fast enough. The race is on to get the lithium out of the ground and into the market.









						Lithium demand is poised to create a supercycle of supply deficits and lasting high prices
					

The past two years has seen lithium prices rise about ten times from US$7,000/t to US$70,000/t both for lithium hydroxide and carbonate. Meanwhile, the lithium spodumene price has enjoyed a similar 10 fold increase from US$500/t to US$5,000/t. This has been caused by EV sales booming, resulting...




					investorintel.com


----------



## waterbottle

greggles said:


> Lithium price hitting new highs. Rapidly increasing demand expected to create supply deficits and high prices into the foreseeable future.
> 
> But simply having lithium assets won't be enough. Too many companies are dipping their toes in by acquiring tenements but are not developing mines fast enough. The race is on to get the lithium out of the ground and into the market.
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> Lithium demand is poised to create a supercycle of supply deficits and lasting high prices
> 
> 
> The past two years has seen lithium prices rise about ten times from US$7,000/t to US$70,000/t both for lithium hydroxide and carbonate. Meanwhile, the lithium spodumene price has enjoyed a similar 10 fold increase from US$500/t to US$5,000/t. This has been caused by EV sales booming, resulting...
> 
> 
> 
> 
> investorintel.com
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> View attachment 148149



The other issue is that many lithium processors and battery makers are in China, which carries a political risk


----------



## waterbottle

Core lithium down almost 10% on open at they fail to complete the offtake agreement with Tesla! 
CXO cites that Chinese processors remain n alternative option.... 

This looks shaky. China is not in great shape atm so not too sure how reliable those processors will be in the future. 
Not sure why Tesla pulled out...


----------



## JohnDe

PLL looking ok

*Piedmont Lithium Selected for US$141.7 Million Grant*


----------



## Sean K

Anyone else concerned about the trajectory of this chart?

Holding a couple of lithium plays that have done quite well, but I've seen charts like this before. It normally ends up tulip-like.


----------



## rcw1

Good afternoon
What goes up, comes down.  It is inevitable.  Supply v Demand. When? ha ha ha  ha ha ha
Crystal ball broke.

Kind regards
rcw1


----------



## waterbottle

Sean K said:


> Anyone else concerned about the trajectory of this chart?
> 
> Holding a couple of lithium plays that have done quite well, but I've seen charts like this before. It normally ends up tulip-like.
> 
> View attachment 148922



Depends, how much of this driven by China's appetite? How's iron ore faring?


----------



## rcw1

Good afternoon
Bell Potter lifting near-term lithium pricing outlook:









						Allkem Ltd (AKE): Lithium price upgrades | Bell Potter
					





					bellpotter.com.au
				





Traded LTR yesterday Edit ... silly me Friday..
Holding CXO hopefully not for much longer.

Kind regards
rcw1


----------



## Sean K

waterbottle said:


> Depends, how much of this driven by China's appetite? How's iron ore faring?




There's a supply/demand thing happening, but I'm not sure if this rise is solely based on that. I don't understand the market as well as I'd like, but parabolic charts worry me. BHP has stated they're not interested in getting into the sector and Goldman called it toppy about 6 months ago so my radar is up. As an example of what could happen in a turnaround, look at Tin and MLX. On the other hand, RIO seems bullish on picking up lithium, so it's a he said she said thing at the moment. Having traded through the uranium craze in the noughties I'm wary.


----------



## rcw1

Good afternoon,
The Australian government in March 2022 forecast global demand for lithium could rise:

to 636,000 tonnes of lithium carbonate equivalent (LCE) in 2022, from 526,000 tonnes in 2021;
that demand was expected to more than double to 1.5 million tonnes by 2027 as global EV adoption continues to rise;
estimated global lithium output to increase slightly above demand to 650,000 tonnes LCE in 2022 and that there would be 'tight market conditions. ' 
It is assumed that increase in lithium output, may not be able to catch up with demand from battery producers.

Lithium prices fell between 2018 to 2020 due to oversupply as miners, such as Pilbara Minerals and Altura Mining, increased production.
The difference between then and now, for mine, lithium prices started to climb early 2021 in line with EV growth and perhaps the global economy rebounding from the effects of the Covid-19 pandemic.

The Australian Government has published its Resources and Energy September 2022 Quarterly Report (Dept. of Industry, Science and Resources, Office of the Chief Economist):



			https://www.industry.gov.au/publications/resources-and-energy-quarterly
		


This is the one point of truth for the federal government and the report contains a wealth of information concerning commodities and economic outlook.

With respect to Lithium, it is anticipated to become a $10 billion-plus export industry within a year, moreover:


Metals central to the global energy transition (copper, nickel, lithium) are set to earn $33 billion in 2022–23, double what they earned in 2020–21;
Spodumene prices are forecast to rise from an average US$598 a tonne in 2021 to US$2,730 a tonne in 2022, and US$3,280 a tonne in 2023 before moderating to US$2,490 in 2024. We expect lithium hydroxide prices to lift from US$17,370 a tonne in 2021 to US$38,575 a tonne in 2022 and US$51,510 in 2023, and moderate to US$37,650 by 2024;
Australia’s lithium production is forecast to grow from 247,000 tonnes of lithium carbonate equivalent (LCE) in 2020–21 to 387,000 tonnes in 2022–23 and 469,000 tonnes of LCE in 2023–24; and
Australia’s lithium export earnings are forecast to increase by more than ten-fold in just two years from $1.1 billion in 2020–21 to $13.8 billion in 2022–23, and ease to $12.9 billion by 2023–24.
For mine, unless there are startling technological advances which hampers demand, potential new variants of the pandemic and problematic supply chains triggered by high levels of inflation, rcw1 believes Lithium will heading in the right direction for some time.

Further reference








						Lithium Price Forecast | Is Lithium a Good Investment?
					

Tight supply and solid EV demand may keep lithium price forecast bullish despite the recent price fall…




					capital.com
				






Kind regards
rcw1


----------



## Sdajii

Sean K said:


> There's a supply/demand thing happening, but I'm not sure if this rise is solely based on that. I don't understand the market as well as I'd like, but parabolic charts worry me. BHP has stated they're not interested in getting into the sector and Goldman called it toppy about 6 months ago so my radar is up. As an example of what could happen in a turnaround, look at Tin and MLX. On the other hand, RIO seems bullish on picking up lithium, so it's a he said she said thing at the moment. Having traded through the uranium craze in the noughties I'm wary.




You have to take the predictions and analyses of the big guys with a generous quantity of salt. Especially if you're still even remotely considering taking the likes of GS at face value rather than seeing that they're deliberately pushing the narrative they want you to believe for their own benefit, not at all just openly sharing their honest thoughts to help you (heh heh heh, it feels ridiculous even typing that).

Very clearly, GS did not believe what they were saying, but they knew what their absurd words would do to the market, and they were correct.

You really need to be able to do some of your own thinking and analysis. Simply following what others want you to think will serve them but not you.

In the short term, they can play fun games and push the price in whatever direction they want it to go, but in the big picture and longer term, prices will more or less follow the realities of supply and demand. For that reason I'm very bullish on lithium prices over the next few years. Evil as they are, I thank Goldman Sachs for providing me with the opportunity to buy up lithium stocks at bargain prices along with their cronies. I'm already on a multibagger and looking forward to further gains on my lithium investments.

Just remember that almost everyone, especially the big players, say what they want you to think, not what they think. The only person you can trust to be honest with you is you (and for most people even that is very dubious), and perhaps people you know personally. Every bit of analysis or data you get online needs to be backed up by understanding of your own or it's worthless, often worth less than zero, other than being used as a guide for what others are likely to think in the very short term (eg GS puts out an absurd bearish narrative, so you know over the next few days the market will probably become bearish and then probably recover quickly when they wake up to the scam - that one was incredibly predictable, thanks again, GS, I made a quick and very easy few grand off that one).


----------



## frugal.rock

Sdajii said:


> You really need to be able to do some of your own thinking and analysis. Simply following what others want you to think will serve them but not you.



Thinking and analysis? 
What is this terribly boring laborious and foul construct of the mind  of which you speak?
🤖


----------



## Sdajii

frugal.rock said:


> Thinking and analysis?
> What is this terribly boring laborious and foul construct of the mind  of which you speak?
> 🤖




It's an archaic practice from back when humans experienced independent thought and signs of intelligence rather than blindly and obediently ridding themselves of such things and mindlessly following what their perceived superiors told them, oblivious to the fact that their 'superiors' by no means had their best intentions in mind.

Be a good lad, observe and believe the mainstream narratives and behave accordingly. There's a good boy, we'll reward you with a nice social credit score. As long as you obey us you will be up against the wall slightly later than those who oppose us. Cowardice and obedience will serve you well in the short term, and that's all that matters, right? Tell your children to do the same, they might not even suffer severely until after you're gone; you may not even have to see it and you can die believing you weren't a pathetic person.


----------



## waterbottle

The benefit that Lithium has over other commodities is the fact that much of the demand is legislated - that is, the push for a green economy and the gradual removal of ICEs. It's also supported by a demographic change that recognises the importance of environmental conservation. 

To date, much of the demand is driven by China as a lithium processor, although that will change as Western nations seek to diversify their input sources. This is a risk inherent to the lithium trade. 
If China enters recession, Lithium processing will probably take a hit (as has iron ore) ergo fall in prices as miners flood a shrinking group of processors. 
In fact, many of the lithium processors have purchased significant stakes in lithium miners. 

The other risk is the technology shift. Lithium's value is in the production of batteries. There are other technologies out there, which although experimental, may one day usurp lithium as the green metal.


----------



## Sdajii

waterbottle said:


> The benefit that Lithium has over other commodities is the fact that much of the demand is legislated - that is, the push for a green economy and the gradual removal of ICEs. It's also supported by a demographic change that recognises the importance of environmental conservation.
> 
> To date, much of the demand is driven by China as a lithium processor, although that will change as Western nations seek to diversify their input sources. This is a risk inherent to the lithium trade.
> If China enters recession, Lithium processing will probably take a hit (as has iron ore) ergo fall in prices as miners flood a shrinking group of processors.
> In fact, many of the lithium processors have purchased significant stakes in lithium miners.
> 
> The other risk is the technology shift. Lithium's value is in the production of batteries. There are other technologies out there, which although experimental, may one day usurp lithium as the green metal.




Lithium is nowhere near as green as the narrative suggests. I'm sure we've all seen the memes involving train loads of coal labelled as electric vehicle fuel, etc. Lithium is not an energy source, it's not a replacement for oil, it's a replacement for fuel tanks. As usual these days, China controls the narrative, and the true source of the drive to change is money and power, not environmentalism. It's no coincidence that the west controlled oil, China controls lithium, and the whole system is making oil obsolete and making lithium king, removing power and money from the west and handing it to China.

But, the misleading narrative doesn't change the fact that the whole ESG, virtue-signaling, dishonest power change etc will increase the price of lithium and make those investing in it wealthy, while the west continues its death by a thousand cuts.


----------



## waterbottle

Sdajii said:


> Lithium is nowhere near as green as the narrative suggests. I'm sure we've all seen the memes involving train loads of coal labelled as electric vehicle fuel, etc. Lithium is not an energy source, it's not a replacement for oil, it's a replacement for fuel tanks. As usual these days, China controls the narrative, and the true source of the drive to change is money and power, not environmentalism. It's no coincidence that the west controlled oil, China controls lithium, and the whole system is making oil obsolete and making lithium king, removing power and money from the west and handing it to China.
> 
> But, the misleading narrative doesn't change the fact that the whole ESG, virtue-signaling, dishonest power change etc will increase the price of lithium and make those investing in it wealthy, while the west continues its death by a thousand cuts.




It doesn't matter what it truly is or isn't. The myth around lithium (whether you believe it or not) is that it is necessary for the green revolution, which virtually all Western governments have subscribed to and legislated targets for.


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## Belli

Research for something better never stops.









						Queensland-developed battery technology a potential game changer for energy industry
					

A Brisbane company could change the face of Australia's energy landscape forever with an eco-friendly, carbon neutral cell that charges 70 times faster than a lithium ion battery and can be reused thousands of times.




					www.abc.net.au


----------



## Garpal Gumnut

Belli said:


> Research for something better never stops.
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> Queensland-developed battery technology a potential game changer for energy industry
> 
> 
> A Brisbane company could change the face of Australia's energy landscape forever with an eco-friendly, carbon neutral cell that charges 70 times faster than a lithium ion battery and can be reused thousands of times.
> 
> 
> 
> 
> www.abc.net.au



I knew this would happen. 

Lithium batteries are too volatile and expensive. 

gg


----------



## waterbottle

Belli said:


> Research for something better never stops.
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> Queensland-developed battery technology a potential game changer for energy industry
> 
> 
> A Brisbane company could change the face of Australia's energy landscape forever with an eco-friendly, carbon neutral cell that charges 70 times faster than a lithium ion battery and can be reused thousands of times.
> 
> 
> 
> 
> www.abc.net.au



Agreed, but how long does it take to transform research into a successful commercial product, that is then standardised and widely adopted? Too long to worry about for lithium IMO


----------



## JohnDe

Some info here -


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## Sdajii

Garpal Gumnut said:


> I knew this would happen.
> 
> Lithium batteries are too volatile and expensive.
> 
> gg




Yeah, I knew unsubstantiated claims would be made too 

Cures for cancer, cures for AIDS, cold fusion, coastal cities being under water, hemp plastic water bottles which somehow are biodegradable within weeks or months yet can be used to store drinks, new battery technology which will make all previous types obsolete... they're all just a few years away and have been for decades. Some people wake up and learn what to believe and what not to, but most don't.


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## Sdajii

waterbottle said:


> It doesn't matter what it truly is or isn't. The myth around lithium (whether you believe it or not) is that it is necessary for the green revolution, which virtually all Western governments have subscribed to and legislated targets for.




Absolutely spot on. The narratives don't really make any sense, but when the powers that be say 2+2=5, your investments won't go well by expecting industries to do what's best for the planet rather than what the powers that be say will be good for the planet, especially if the whole system is rigged to force them to comply with the narrative. If the narratives were about facts, truth and making the world a better place, we wouldn't have a dying world ruled by blatantly evil people, and you just need to look out the window with open eyes and mind to see what the world is actually like.


----------



## JohnDe

waterbottle said:


> It doesn't matter what it truly is or isn't. The myth around lithium (whether you believe it or not) is that it is necessary for the green revolution, which virtually all Western governments have subscribed to and legislated targets for.




Too many people caught on the headlights of transition.

Technology is always moving forwards; we can try and stop it but the best we can do is slow it down.

The present technological transition has been in the pipework for over 50 years, the floodgates can't hold back the flow any longer.

Most people, like myself, don't buy an EV or solar panels for the environment. Just like people that keep updating their mobile phones and computers every year or two when there is nothing wrong with their existing model, it is because we love new technology and speed.

The only time I hear people talking about lithium and battery technology being bad for the environment is from people reluctant to follow and keep up with new technology.

People need to stop looking a few yars in front and behind, they need to start looking 20, 30, 40 years both ways. Most of the technology coming out was seen or invented decades ago, we just didn't have the means to make it economically and in large quantity.

In the 1990's, General Motors saw the change coming and prepared for it with the *EV1*. Sadly, they lost their nerve and scrapped their plan and possibly their future viability.

Tesla's original founding members also saw it, they used the EV1 motors to build their prototypes and sign on investors. With all the leaders of industry saying that Tesla would fail, instead Tesla is now the world's No.1 EV manufacturer.

I am reading about a 'green revolution', but what I see is a new technology revolution and revolution. We are witnessing the beginning of the death of old technology, and the people that still think it is new. The combustion engine has done the job it was designed for, but it is now competing against electric motors that are several times more efficient, less complex and cheaper to design and build.

Lithium is the choice because it is abundant, it is available all over the world, it is relatively easy to source and refine.


----------



## noirua

Lithium Archive - electrive.com
					

Industry service for electric mobility




					www.electrive.com


----------



## rcw1

rcw1 said:


> Good afternoon
> Bell Potter lifting near-term lithium pricing outlook:
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> Allkem Ltd (AKE): Lithium price upgrades | Bell Potter
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> bellpotter.com.au
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> Traded LTR yesterday Edit ... silly me Friday..
> Holding CXO hopefully not for much longer.
> 
> Kind regards
> rcw1



Good afternoon
CXO made its highest SP





 a 10.93% gain today, despite no price-sensitive news having been released, to rcw1 knowledge anyways (14/11/22). 
Sold 

Have a very nice day today.

Kind regards
rcw1


----------



## Boggo




----------



## Sean K

Having read all the news of the lithium stock pullback yesterday, I still don't know whether to believe the bears such as Goldman or the likes of Benchmark Minerals Intelligence who have produced two very different looking supply/demand graphs this year. I'm not sure which of these has an agenda, or who their analysts are, to be able to make a judgement either way. I'm vexed. And in that case, I thinking I'm better off just trading the charts of this sector for the time being.


----------



## frugal.rock

Sean K said:


> I still don't know whether to believe the bears such as Goldman or the likes of Benchmark Minerals Intelligence who have produced two very different looking supply/demand graphs this year.



GS are self serving.
BMI knows a bit more about the subject matter, imo. One would hope the IOSCO governance keeps them more flat-footed overall.
That doesn't mean totally ignore GS however. They are probably more concerned with "timing" the market to their benefit.


----------



## waterbottle

Lithium price hinges on China, as does iron price, until battery production moves West. 









						Commodity star lithium shows signs of cooling after 1,200% rally
					

Spot prices for lithium carbonate in China edged lower on Tuesday to register their first drop since June.




					www.mining.com


----------



## Sdajii

Sean K said:


> Having read all the news of the lithium stock pullback yesterday, I still don't know whether to believe the bears such as Goldman or the likes of Benchmark Minerals Intelligence who have produced two very different looking supply/demand graphs this year. I'm not sure which of these has an agenda, or who their analysts are, to be able to make a judgement either way. I'm vexed. And in that case, I thinking I'm better off just trading the charts of this sector for the time being.




It's quite peculiar that there are still people unsure about whether or not to believe the likes of Goldman Sachs.

It's amazing how blatantly and publicly and repeatedly lies can be told, with blatant agendas, by the same people or groups, and still be believed.

I think we need a new version of "The Boy Who Cried Wolf", and not just for children. The plot needs to change a little and it should be from the perspective of the masses, not the boy. Rather than telling people not to lie in order to avoid not being trusted in the future, we need to teach people not to believe liars.

Of course, the current governments and corporations from big pharma to GS would oppose it every step of the way.


----------



## Sean K

GS not so bearish, but still see lower prices 2024.


----------



## Sean K

Current lithium producers will still be making a motza at these prices going into early 2023, even with a drop off in prices. If there's a major correction, junior explorers might find themselves in trouble if the overall price corrects sharply as supply meets demand in the coming couple of years, if that actually occurs. Perhaps China unlocking post-Covid will open up markets again and with cash sitting on the sidelines and price of e vehicles coming down perhaps there's an even greater race to battery cars and demand remains the driver.


----------



## waterbottle

I think there's too much unpredictability to be able to forecast prices that far out, namely:

Will China head into recession? 
How many other EV manufacturers are coming online? 
What happens if there's a commodity East-West divide?


----------



## Sean K

waterbottle said:


> I think there's too much unpredictability to be able to forecast prices that far out, namely:
> 
> Will China head into recession?
> How many other EV manufacturers are coming online?
> What happens if there's a commodity East-West divide?




Agree. The big thinkers in the investment houses are making predictions based on assumptions that could be significantly disrupted by any one of a number of factors. It's all best guess work really. Probably why short term traders have an advantage by just playing the price action whereas medium-longer term investors are taking more of a punt.


----------



## waterbottle

Lithium players must be hurting today. 
I found an interesting article suggesting China will set up a single purchaser for Lithium similar to what they've done with iron ore (although still ended up paying higher prices). 









						China may extend state iron ore buying strategy to lithium
					

If successful in iron ore, the mandate of China's new centralised state buyer could be extended to lithium, copper and bauxite.




					www.mining.com
				




Short term is going to be volatile, with an increasing risk of recession it's hard to see EV purchases climbing rapidly.

All eyes on China


----------



## Sean K

waterbottle said:


> Lithium players must be hurting today.
> I found an interesting article suggesting China will set up a single purchaser for Lithium similar to what they've done with iron ore (although still ended up paying higher prices).
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> China may extend state iron ore buying strategy to lithium
> 
> 
> If successful in iron ore, the mandate of China's new centralised state buyer could be extended to lithium, copper and bauxite.
> 
> 
> 
> 
> www.mining.com
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> Short term is going to be volatile, with an increasing risk of recession it's hard to see EV purchases climbing rapidly.
> 
> All eyes on China




Yes; Covid, the China long lockdown, interest rate rises, recession, war, all conspiring to dampen demand for just about everything... Hopefully nothing to add to the list and we see a general change in fortunes some time in 2023.


----------



## Sdajii

waterbottle said:


> Lithium players must be hurting today.
> I found an interesting article suggesting China will set up a single purchaser for Lithium similar to what they've done with iron ore (although still ended up paying higher prices).
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> China may extend state iron ore buying strategy to lithium
> 
> 
> If successful in iron ore, the mandate of China's new centralised state buyer could be extended to lithium, copper and bauxite.
> 
> 
> 
> 
> www.mining.com
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> Short term is going to be volatile, with an increasing risk of recession it's hard to see EV purchases climbing rapidly.
> 
> All eyes on China




If you don't see EV purchases climbing rapidly, is that because you think people will stop buying cars entirely or because you think they'll revert to buying ICE vehicles?

EVs are still a small percentage of all new vehicle sales. Even if there is a drastic reduction in new vehicle sales (probably unlikely even in the event of a nasty recession), presumably the reduction in sales will primarily be from the ICE part of the market, not the EV side, which will continue to grow since it is still so small, and clearly everyone wants an EV.


----------



## waterbottle

Sdajii said:


> If you don't see EV purchases climbing rapidly, is that because you think people will stop buying cars entirely or because you think they'll revert to buying ICE vehicles?
> 
> EVs are still a small percentage of all new vehicle sales. Even if there is a drastic reduction in new vehicle sales (probably unlikely even in the event of a nasty recession), presumably the reduction in sales will primarily be from the ICE part of the market, not the EV side, which will continue to grow since it is still so small, and clearly everyone wants an EV.




I don't know. 

I think the equation was clearer when oil prices were at recent highs, but now oil is hitting pre-Ukraine war lows, and expected to fall further. 

Coupled with a gloomy economy, would you buy a new electric car or would you buy a second hand ICE or maybe not buy anything at all? 

I guess we should investigate what EV manufacturer sales have been like...


----------



## Sdajii

waterbottle said:


> I don't know.
> 
> I think the equation was clearer when oil prices were at recent highs, but now oil is hitting pre-Ukraine war lows, and expected to fall further.
> 
> Coupled with a gloomy economy, would you buy a new electric car or would you buy a second hand ICE or maybe not buy anything at all?
> 
> I guess we should investigate what EV manufacturer sales have been like...




When buying a new car (a new car buyer typically does not have the same mindset as someone buying a second hand car) people are thinking ahead further than the current petrol price.

People buying new vehicles aren't scratching around for loose change, living hand to mouth. Buying a new car is a choice to spend more money than you need to.

Currently, the percentage of total new vehicles which are EVs is still very low. Demand far exceeds supply.

We have seen an interesting situation over the last two or three years with car manufacturing slowing down due to ridiculous lockdowns etc. The price of second hand vehicles has increased due to a lack of total vehicle supply. This will inevitably push demand for new vehicles up. It's still more cost effective to buy second hand, but more people will be keen to buy new when the price difference is more narrow.

Ask almost anyone if they would prefer an EV or a petrol vehicle. We all know what the majority will say.

Keep in mind that it is the people buying new vehicles (the ones with the most money) who determine what the people who buy second hand vehicles will have to choose from a few years down the track.

I can't see how the number of new EV sales could not continue increasing rapidly for the next few years, short of all out catastrophe well beyond what most currently-living people have seen in their lifetimes (probably not as unlikely as many of us would like to think, but in that scenario you probably want to be investing in canned food, guns, ammo and survival courses).


----------



## waterbottle

Sdajii said:


> When buying a new car (a new car buyer typically does not have the same mindset as someone buying a second hand car) people are thinking ahead further than the current petrol price.
> 
> People buying new vehicles aren't scratching around for loose change, living hand to mouth. Buying a new car is a choice to spend more money than you need to.
> 
> Currently, the percentage of total new vehicles which are EVs is still very low. Demand far exceeds supply.
> 
> We have seen an interesting situation over the last two or three years with car manufacturing slowing down due to ridiculous lockdowns etc. The price of second hand vehicles has increased due to a lack of total vehicle supply. This will inevitably push demand for new vehicles up. It's still more cost effective to buy second hand, but more people will be keen to buy new when the price difference is more narrow.
> 
> Ask almost anyone if they would prefer an EV or a petrol vehicle. We all know what the majority will say.
> 
> Keep in mind that it is the people buying new vehicles (the ones with the most money) who determine what the people who buy second hand vehicles will have to choose from a few years down the track.
> 
> I can't see how the number of new EV sales could not continue increasing rapidly for the next few years, short of all out catastrophe well beyond what most currently-living people have seen in their lifetimes (probably not as unlikely as many of us would like to think, but in that scenario you probably want to be investing in canned food, guns, ammo and survival courses).




I don't think that's right - every purchase is a cost-benefit equation. A small difference in price matters when other expenses exist, namely mortgages, and I think that consumers factor this in when deciding between EVs and ICEs, particularly when he price of second hand vehicles (and fuel) is now falling. 

Having said that, I do think long-term demand will increase. Governments have legislated a baseline level of demand. There is a global trend towards electrification. There is a Western trend to renewable energies which will require a storage solution too. 
I think there is also going to be demand for mines from car companies (see Musk's comments) 

The difficulty is what happens in the short term, which I think will be dictated by consumer trends, China and the overall economy....


----------



## Sdajii

waterbottle said:


> I don't think that's right - every purchase is a cost-benefit equation. A small difference in price matters when other expenses exist, namely mortgages, and I think that consumers factor this in when deciding between EVs and ICEs, particularly when he price of second hand vehicles (and fuel) is now falling.
> 
> Having said that, I do think long-term demand will increase. Governments have legislated a baseline level of demand. There is a global trend towards electrification. There is a Western trend to renewable energies which will require a storage solution too.
> I think there is also going to be demand for mines from car companies (see Musk's comments)
> 
> The difficulty is what happens in the short term, which I think will be dictated by consumer trends, China and the overall economy....




Once electric vehicles make up a significant proportion of all new vehicle sales, sure, price discretion will be a bigger issue, but for the next few years we could see new EV sales continue to increase even if it was only the most wealthy few percent of the population buying them. Only a very small percentage of the population buys a new vehicle each year, plenty of people never buy one in their whole lives. I will most likely never buy a new car (Why pay a few thousand dollars to drive it out of the dealership when I can pay thousands of dollars less just because someone else drove it out of the dealership?). You're only buying a new car because you want to spend extra money for the privilege of having a virgin car, you're already choosing to spend more money than you need to, so why not buy what you want? And as I said, what the majority of people now want is an electric car, even if it's not quite as cost effective. We even have a poll here on this forum showing that, not that we need it. We literally know that the consumer is literally willing to pay more for the privilege of driving an electric car, even if it is about stupid virtue signaling or to kid one's self into thinking that they're helping the world.

We have ample evidence that the majority of people want an EV even if it will cost them more, most people are being lead to believe that in the long run it will be cheaper even if it won't, and currently the percentage of new vehicle sales which are EVs is low, so you would only need a very small percentage of the population to choose EVs for the number of EV sales to increase for the next few years. If half of all new vehicle sales were already EVs, sure, things might be different (but even then, any downturn in total new vehicle sales would mostly be deducted from ICE vehicles, not EV sales).

Saying long term demand will increase is pretty redundant at this point; mandates for phasing out petrol vehicles take this out of the choice of motorists anyway. Sure, the rush to renewable (unreliable) electricity sources will force the use of large scale electricity storage, which will increase demand on lithium. We're definitely setting ourselves up for a huge surge in electricity prices by phasing out our cheapest and most reliable sources and replacing them with more expensive and less reliable sources, while simultaneously increasing our demand for electricity! Private vehicles will be out of reach for an increasing percentage of the population in the not too distant future, but most people won't wake up to that reality within the next 10 years.

Looking at the trend on new EV sales, and considering the very low percentage of the total market this still represents, and that the number of people required to fuel this is very small and that there is still a much greater percentage of people with more money than they need, and the number of people who believe that buying an EV will 'save the planet' and increase their social status, and the fact that you literally need to book way ahead to buy an EV and sales are already booked way ahead with deposits already paid... it doesn't make much sense to say total EV sales are going to drop any time in the next 2-3 years and I would argue 5+ years conservatively.


----------



## rcw1

Good morning,

The Motley Fool has published an article on 26/12/22 about five ASX lithium stocks which have been recently rated as buys and tipped to climb meaningfully higher in 2023:

*AKE; CXO; LTR; MIN; and PLS*

Not holding, have traded all these stocks in 2022 particularly LTR and anticipate will continue to do so in 2023 all going well.
Kindly conduct your own due diligence.









						5 ASX lithium stocks to buy in 2023: brokers
					

Here's why leading brokers are tipping these ASX lithium stocks to outperform in 2023...




					www.fool.com.au
				









Resources and Energy Quarterly December 2022 pp146-147 has explained some key facts concerning Lithium and world demand:

Spodumene prices are estimated to rise from an average of US$598 a tonne in 2021 to US$2,700 a tonne in 2022, and US$4,010 a tonne in
2023 before moderating to US$3,130 in 2024. Lithium hydroxide prices are expected to lift from US$17,370 a tonne in 2021 to US$39,900 in2022 and US$61,200 in 2023, moderating to US$48,500 by 2024.  Australia’s lithium production is forecast to grow from 335,000 tonnes of lithium carbonate equivalent (LCE) in 2021–22 to 399,000 tonnes in 2022–23 and 470,000 tonnes of LCE in 2023–24.

In 2022–23 Australia’s export earnings are forecast to more than triple — from $4.9 billion in 2021–22 to $16.1 billion, and $17.0 billion in
2023–24.

*World demand*
Chinese electric vehicle sales remain strong.  Rising demand for electric vehicle batteries saw global lithium demand continue to grow strongly in the September quarter 2022. Despite a weakening in global economic conditions, sales and production of electric vehicles (EVs) continued their rapid growth trend. Global sales of all types of EVs increased 40% in the nine months to September 2022 compared
with the same period in 2021 — with Chinese sales up 110%, European sales up 6%, and North American sales up 27%.

Fallout from the Russian invasion of Ukraine and the resulting higher power prices and factory shutdowns saw European sales slow in July and August, before picking up in September. While US EV sales have continued to grow, the North American market remains relatively small. In China, total monthly EV sales reached over three-quarters of a million for the first time in September. Auto production and supply chains in China have recovered from the COVID-19s lockdowns that disrupted industrial output in the June quarter 2022. 

Tax incentives and government subsidies continue to support purchases of new energy vehicles, and a number of local governments — such as Shenzhen, Shandong, and Hubei — have also provided subsidies and incentives to encourage EV purchases.

Policies to promote EV uptake have also been implemented in many countries.  In the United States, the Inflation Reduction Act of 2022 (with funding of US$391 billion) contains provisions to promote the clean energy transition including significant incentives to purchase EVs.

Global passenger EV sales are expected to continue to grow strongly, albeit at a slower rate than in 2021 — when passenger EV sales more
than doubled to an estimated 6.8 million vehicles. Passenger EV sales are expected to reach over 14 million in 2023.  Major global automakers continue to accelerate plans to transition to EVs by developing new product lines and converting existing manufacturing capacity. The global market share for passenger EVs has quadrupled since 2019, with EV sales representing about 9% of the car market in 2021.  Strong underlying demand and EV manufacturers’ declarations of further increases in production, imply that EV sales could
reach almost 40% of annual vehicle sales by 2030.

World demand for lithium is estimated to increase from 592,000 tonnes of lithium carbonate equivalent (LCE) in 2021 to 745,000 tonnes in 2022.   Over the following two years, demand is forecast to rise by over 40%, reaching 1,091,000 tonnes by 2024. Despite the spread of new battery manufacturing capacity into Europe and the US, _Asia remains the major source of demand for lithium._

In September, the Chinese government announced a continuation of vehicle purchase tax exemptions for new energy vehicles through to the end of 2023. The 12 month extension is expected to cost around 100 billion yuan. Compared to a similarly priced internal combustion
engine (ICE) passenger car model, Chinese government subsidies provide a saving to customers of about 10,000 yuan.

Have a very nice day, today.

Kind regards
rcw1


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## Dona Ferentes

Good evening.
Kindly lifted from Visual Capitalist.












						Visualizing 25 Years of Lithium Production, by Country
					

Lithium production has grown exponentially over the last few decades. Which countries produce the most lithium, and how how has this mix evolved?




					www.visualcapitalist.com


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## waterbottle

EV sales dropping, Tesla puts Shanghai plant on oil. Lithium prices will probably follow downwards at this point...


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## waterbottle

Lithium getting absolutely flogged. Seemed like it was in lock-step with oil earlier in the year but now diverging.


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## bk1

Writing on the wall in November, take the hint.
SQM and LTHM both similar.


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## rcw1

Good afternoon
Nice day all round for Lithium stocks yesterday.  


Happy New Year.

Kind regards
rcw1



*LITHIUM*
Sat 31 Dec 2022 3:36 PM Sydney time

CodeBid ($)Offer ($)Last ($)Change ($)(%)Open ($)High ($)Low ($)VolumeAKE



​11.210​11.340​11.240​0.150​1.35​11.240​11.450​11.240​2,129,318​​​CXO



​1.025​1.040​1.025​0.050​5.13​1.000​1.040​0.995​19,130,836​​​INF



​0.115​0.120​0.120​0.010​9.09​0.115​0.120​0.110​899,880​​​PLS



​3.750​3.770​3.750​0.070​1.90​3.730​3.810​3.710​18,914,597​​​GL1



​1.800​1.850​1.845​0.160​9.50​1.715​1.860​1.715​678,644​​​SYA



​0.190​0.195​0.190​0.010​5.56​0.190​0.200​0.187​41,211,431​​​LKE



​0.790​0.805​0.800​0.045​5.96​0.765​0.805​0.755​7,456,641​​​


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## Sean K

rcw1 said:


> Good afternoon
> Nice day all round for Lithium stocks yesterday.
> 
> 
> Happy New Year.
> 
> Kind regards
> rcw1
> 
> 
> 
> *LITHIUM*
> Sat 31 Dec 2022 3:36 PM Sydney time
> 
> CodeBid ($)Offer ($)Last ($)Change ($)(%)Open ($)High ($)Low ($)VolumeAKE
> 
> ​11.210​11.340​11.240​0.150​1.35​11.240​11.450​11.240​2,129,318​​​CXO
> 
> ​1.025​1.040​1.025​0.050​5.13​1.000​1.040​0.995​19,130,836​​​INF
> 
> ​0.115​0.120​0.120​0.010​9.09​0.115​0.120​0.110​899,880​​​PLS
> 
> ​3.750​3.770​3.750​0.070​1.90​3.730​3.810​3.710​18,914,597​​​GL1
> 
> ​1.800​1.850​1.845​0.160​9.50​1.715​1.860​1.715​678,644​​​SYA
> 
> ​0.190​0.195​0.190​0.010​5.56​0.190​0.200​0.187​41,211,431​​​LKE
> 
> ​0.790​0.805​0.800​0.045​5.96​0.765​0.805​0.755​7,456,641​​​




Yes, but how much off highs? I have a feeling just about all would have been smashed the past month or so due to Mr Market thinking they had 1. Run too hard, 2. Recession to dampen EV demand, and 3. China uncertainty.


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## rcw1

Sean K said:


> Yes, but how much off highs? I have a feeling just about all would have been smashed the past month or so due to Mr Market thinking they had 1. Run too hard, 2. Recession to dampen EV demand, and 3. China uncertainty.



Good afternoon Sean K
rcw1 trades em, quick.  Not all at once, not that good ha ha ha ha, have tried unsuccessfully to do that though   ha ha ha ha ha
Yes, rcw1 is well aware of the commentators about Lithium.

Here's another one written two days ago... Balanced, you judge...



Have a very nice New Years Eve.

Edit Ooops must cut and past








						World’s Biggest Lithium Producer Bets On Prices Staying High Despite Supply Rush - WorldNewsEra
					

Albemarle, the world’s largest lithium producer, expects high prices for the key battery metal to persist for years even as they spark a rush to expand supply.



					worldnewsera.com
				




Kind regards
rcw1


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## Boggo

Twenty Global Lithium Stocks to Watch in 2023
					

Lithium prices are soaring and interest in lithium stocks is palpable as investors position for the electric vehicle revolution. Demand for Electric Vehicles is expected to increase over the next decade with lithium entering a structural supply deficit and providing support for lithium prices...




					ukinvestormagazine.co.uk


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