# BBOZ - BetaShares Australian Equities Strong Bear Hedge Fund



## PZ99 (23 March 2020)

BBOZ is an etf that bets against the Australian share market with a ratio of 2:1 to 2.75:1

EG: For every 1% decline you get a 2%+ increase.... and vice versa (beware)

https://www.betashares.com.au/fund/australian-equities-strong-bear-fund/

One suspects some decent activity (positive or negative) for the remainder of 2020


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## qldfrog (23 March 2020)

This is part of my safety package:
Average buy around $11..along the years..
was at $20 when i started
I had severe paper losses, no income but now selling some parcel every week to counter balance other losses
Overall a success and playing its role, i even bought some more at the last asx exuberance last week
Highly recommended


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## qldfrog (23 March 2020)

Sold parcel 19.4ish this morning
Balancing losses elsewhere

In the USA, there are some etf leveraging at 3 times Russel index, etc
Some of these are an easy way to add security to your portfolio if you can not or are not confident enough to buy shorts
PS i am not paid for the promo
BBOZ boss, contact me, i can even accept bitcoins


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## mikmac (23 March 2020)

qldfrog said:


> Sold parcel 19.4ish this morning
> Balancing losses elsewhere
> 
> In the USA, there are some etf leveraging at 3 times Russel index, etc
> ...




Careful with those leveraged ETFs/ETNs... got badly burnt last week when UWT (Crude Oil) didn't track the index and my stop loss failed to trigger


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## qldfrog (23 March 2020)

mikmac said:


> Careful with those leveraged ETFs/ETNs... got badly burnt last week when UWT (Crude Oil) didn't track the index and my stop loss failed to trigger



Point taken,
Bboz is ok but not to play with SL etc
Buy sell as an insurance coupon


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## InsvestoBoy (23 March 2020)

qldfrog said:


> Some of these are an easy way to add security to your portfolio if you can not or are not confident enough to buy shorts




You are literally buying shorts when you buy BBOZ.


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## cutz (23 March 2020)

Too late for that, the horse has already bolted !


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## qldfrog (23 March 2020)

InsvestoBoy said:


> You are literally buying shorts when you buy BBOZ.



yes but very easy to do it , no warrant, no short platform, they probably take their cut, it is also leveraged
Anyway, a simple way for non pro like me to get a bit of safety net


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## InsvestoBoy (23 March 2020)

qldfrog said:


> yes but very easy to do it , no warrant, no short platform, they probably take their cut, it is also leveraged
> Anyway, a simple way for non pro like me to get a bit of safety net




I don't like it as a hedge.

If you have $100,000 exposure to the ASX, you need to stump up $50,000 to hedge. You have to pay brokerage and then CGT if your hedge works.

Why not just sell $50,000 of your ASX exposure?


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## finicky (25 January 2021)

I was veering towards taking the plunge and buying into this today. Feeling jaded with the ASX recently. Been more interested in getting a new eating plan and supplement regimen set. Mission - increase years of 'health span' via time restricted eating, diet and supplements. To this end I blew $700 bucks on cutting edge mitochondrial energy boosters and other stuff from a U.K outlet: https://donotage.org/products/
Search: David Sinclair + NMN  or Rhonda Patrick on Youtube

There's not really any chart reason that I can see to buy BBOZ or my other hedging target, BBUS, except the price has got so low - lower than before the Wuhan crash. Can you believe the complacency? Of course the price will bound out of the gate the day a crisis hits.

I have crudely extracted two more 'indicators' out of the frontal lobe ping pong going on in the (2021) Bull Market thread. They being the volatility charts of VXX for the S&P and XVI for the ASX200. They might help me time a decision to buy BBOZ, BBUS - but probably not. I'll probably just buy on impulse one day. I was hoping to have something that would be bearable to sell to fund the hedges, like a monster day from KCN or MBK, but no dice so far.


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## peter2 (25 January 2021)

Don't let your frustration make do do something stupid (like buy BBOZ without a plan). Examine why you've feeling frustrated. Reduce that cause. You've read that sometimes having no position is the right one. Patience (grasshopper).   [I hope you're taking resveratrol with the NMN. ]

BBOZ is a poor long term hold as the value melts away (compounds away). We'll know when the market starts to tank big time and being a day or two late won't matter. We'll be scrambling to exit all our longs before thinking about buying an inverse index ETF.


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## finicky (25 January 2021)

@peter2 - Yes, resveratrol with olive oil - as well as TMG and berberine.
Time restricted eating: have been doing 2 pm - 10 pm eating window or shorter, going to try to switch to a morning eating period instead, 10 am - 4 pm, starting tomorrow


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## finicky (25 January 2021)

Re: a buy time decision for BBOZ, BBUS, I have two examples of people I follow who have already done their buying and advised their subscribers to do so: Vern Gowdie (a long time bear whose views I like) and Tony Locantro who has made his clients so much on specs that he's trying to tether them to reality with these etf hedges. So I figure I'm getting in at a better time than these two formidable figures - not all that rational.
Once the price moves sharply I will have hesitation because as a bottom scaper I begrudge not buying at the low and tend to wait, so playing a bit off my own psychology there.


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## Dona Ferentes (26 January 2021)

a Blue Mtns based commentator, in his weekly newsletter, came out with this on Saturday, after running through the usual off the scale charts (that I haven't managed to copy) (FARBAST index, M2 YoY Index, Small Trader Call Buys as % of NYSE volume, TLSA):
_"This is what is smack bang in front of us.
Why fight it? Why not sit back and enjoy it?
Why not join the call option buying crowd?
It goes without saying that there is overwhelming evidence that we are witnessing a speculative frenzy.
You also know that virtually every U.S equity valuation metric is flashing red and is now priced for absolute perfection...plus, plus.
Naturally we have to mention Tesla."_

"...let me try and sum up.


> I think we are on the verge of a very sharp drop in equity markets and we need to start carefully considering various strategies to protect portfolios.
> We know that the asset bubbles on Wall Street have been fuelled by historic monetary and fiscal stimulus.
> We know that the disconnect between Main Street and Wall Street is now as wide as it has ever been.
> We know that income inequality is as wide as it has ever been.
> ...



*"what I’ve been doing:*
_"I bought March puts on SMH (VanEck Vectors Semiconductor ETF).
I am short NDX futures.
I’m still long March VIX futures.
I’m short Tesla and want to increase this position.
On the other side, so to speak, I’m still long ANZ, Nikkei 225 Index, Rolls Royce, GDX, SIL, AGG, EVN and initiated a small position in SYR."_


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## mcgrath111 (26 January 2021)

finicky said:


> Re: a buy time decision for BBOZ, BBUS, I have two examples of people I follow who have already done their buying and advised their subscribers to do so: Vern Gowdie (a long time bear whose views I like) and Tony Locantro who has made his clients so much on specs that he's trying to tether them to reality with these etf hedges. So I figure I'm getting in at a better time than these two formidable figures - not all that rational.
> Once the price moves sharply I will have hesitation because as a bottom scaper I begrudge not buying at the low and tend to wait, so playing a bit off my own psychology there.



I think the quote that applies best here is "The market can remain irrational longer than you can remain solvent" - Valuations may have gone out the window (....Afterpay).
What makes me uneasy is when I see every man and his dog buying shares / talking about shares, I think oh boy here we come. 
I've used bboz and bbuz before, yet only for intraday trades. (When market is real volatile) - I couldn't trust my judgement as to predicting the market longer term though- if you manage to time it though, I'd love a told you so reply haha


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## finicky (26 January 2021)

@mcgrath111 I'm pretty sure I can nail it to within days of the low 🏆 🃏


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## Dona Ferentes (26 January 2021)

Before or after?


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## Smurf1976 (27 January 2021)

Dona Ferentes said:


> It goes without saying that there is overwhelming evidence that we are witnessing a speculative frenzy.



Whilst I agree with that, there's also the issue that such things can go on far longer than anyone expects so I'll be waiting for evidence that the end has actually been reached.

It does bring back memories of 1999-2000 and 2007-08 though and to be more specific, now feels rather like very early in the year 2000 to me yes. Different in detail but many similarities.

That said, I recall a real estate agent talking about the housing bubble and that a decline was likely. That was in 2003..... 

This ETF does offer a convenient means of shorting the index but considering it's leveraged, getting the timing right is rather important.


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## Gunnerguy (1 May 2021)

I have selected BBOZ for the May Monthly share trade competition.
A leveraged Bear Fund in the current environment doesn't seem too unsuitable.
April 30th ASX declined and NDQ in the US did also.
'Sell in May', and over high valuations in the 'media'.
A reasonable punt I think.

Gunnerguy.


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## pozindustrial (1 May 2021)

Speaking from experience it takes nerves of steel to invest in bboz because of the losses that quickly mount if the market goes up. There have been many opportunities to make a great return, but our market has been hard to predict, going sharply down and then up, so you make a killing then lose more than that in the same day.
I am about even, but I am not as willing to risk it as I was. I am trying to figure out what a trigger is, but sometimes we go down and the US goes up and vice versa so I can't say that if the US overnight goes up that we will the next day like I was hoping. However in major crashes there seems to be plenty of time to get in and reap rewards, but you need cash at the time. I have cashed out because it is too volatile for me at present, so I will sit and wait. Luck will play its part I am sure, both good and bad.


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## Gunnerguy (1 May 2021)

pozindustrial said:


> Speaking from experience it takes nerves of steel to invest in bboz because of the losses that quickly mount if the market goes up. There have been many opportunities to make a great return, but our market has been hard to predict, going sharply down and then up, so you make a killing then lose more than that in the same day.
> I am about even, but I am not as willing to risk it as I was. I am trying to figure out what a trigger is, but sometimes we go down and the US goes up and vice versa so I can't say that if the US overnight goes up that we will the next day like I was hoping. However in major crashes there seems to be plenty of time to get in and reap rewards, but you need cash at the time. I have cashed out because it is too volatile for me at present, so I will sit and wait. Luck will play its part I am sure, both good and bad.



When I started in ETF’s 10 years ago I had the standard suite of International ETF’s with varying percentages based on my perceived growth prospects of different countries. I dipped in to leverage growth and bear funds and it was a real eye opener and quick educator. Very difficult as you say and played havoc with ones emotions and sleep. Having not looked at bear funds for a long time I thought with the current market they may be worth a look again. As you say they move quickly and one can never predict the market, however for the monthly stock game it might be an idea. Also would force me to keep a closer look at the overall index and if I ‘feel lucky’ and the market is falling / volatile I may take a punt with a few shekels.
Gunnerguy


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## Smurf1976 (2 May 2021)

pozindustrial said:


> it takes nerves of steel to invest in bboz because of the losses that quickly mount if the market goes up.



Never forget that BBOZ is leveraged by its very nature and will amplify % moves in the underlying market.

Your position sizing needs to take this into account since a $1000 position in BBOZ is really a roughly $2400 position in terms of how it will move (approximate figure there not precise). 

If you wanted to trade it without leverage then you could reverse engineer that. Eg you want a $10,000 position so buy $4000 worth of BBOZ and that's roughly correct. If your $4000 becomes $5000 then view that as a 10% gain in $10,000 not a 25% gain on $4000 and vice versa if it falls.

Note that I'm not recommending that you should buy BBOZ, just drawing attention to its internal leverage.


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## qldfrog (2 May 2021)

Smurf1976 said:


> Never forget that BBOZ is leveraged by its very nature and will amplify % moves in the underlying market.
> 
> Your position sizing needs to take this into account since a $1000 position in BBOZ is really a roughly $2400 position in terms of how it will move (approximate figure there not precise).
> 
> ...



BEAR is similar wo leverage from memory.
And remember there is a slow erosion on bboz so a flat market will make you loose a bit, but not as bad as GEAR...well feels like so when i use it..did not investigate if it is fees, use of options etc.


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## pozindustrial (2 May 2021)

I have already made good money with bboz and lost those gains again so I know it works as pointed out above. The sting of losing gains still remains so I am trying to look at market patterns to indicate when to invest in it again. If you look at a typical bust it goes on for months so during those times it would be hard not to make great profits, but you need cash. I think the safest way is to buy bboz after the first day of a big drop (and pray that it continues). I will continue to try to identify patterns that tell me when to buy.

I am convinced there will be a big crash, but nobody can predict the timing. I have taken a punt and turned all investments into cash so I am ready. My situation is that I want to give my new SMSF a big boost so I can retire more comfortably in a few years. I aspire to be the person who sold out at the top and bought in at the bottom. Using leveraged investments I can profit from a downturn too which in the past could be done with bonds. Having been a bystander over many crashes I have seen that the person who pulled their money out at the top was always seen as a God (The Big Short movie is an example). After a crash the regrets are everywhere - "if only I had.... not been as greedy, listened to all the signs that were flashing in my face, got out of the fire and cooled down, taken notice of ..., put more into cash and invested as the market crashed rather than panicked to get out etc."

I view being in the market at present as dangerous. Hey, most people become more conservative in older age so don't be too harsh on me.


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## ducati916 (2 May 2021)

Some basic facts.

1. We have 3 asset bubbles concurrently: (a) stocks, (b) Bonds, (c) Real Estate.
2. The most important of those 3 bubbles is (b) Bonds. The other 2 bubbles key off of rates.
3. The Central Banks are (again) responsible for inflating (a) and (b) and (c) is an indirect consequence of (b).

4. Picking the TOP of the market is far, far harder than getting the bottom. The bottom, among other variables, usually occurs quite quickly after a 500 basis point easing from the Fed.

5. Why is it harder to pick the top?

Now we shift into very subjective musings.

1. At the bottom, short sellers are far quicker to cover their shorts and take profits. This provides initial buying pressure added to Central Bank support, this often brings in the Value chaps and a bottom of sorts is established. This happened in 2003, 2009, but not so much in 2020. 2020 was much more akin to 1987.

2. Because of the short seller phenom., Bear rallies are common. The inexperienced, BTD, thinking that a bottom has been reached, when all it is is largely short covering. This BTD mentality takes a while to be beaten out of people. Which makes the topping process very difficult to time. You will often be stopped out of your positions. If you are 'cash', then you have to guard against BTD, thinking it is the bottom.

3. In the GFC, blogoland was highlighting the issues from 2006, many from 2005. The final straw took until 2008 to break the market. That topping process took between 2 and 3 years. In 2000, pundits had been calling a bubble etc. since 1998. 1999 was a massive up year. So 2 years to get to that top. Many stocks outside of NASDAQ stocks, SPY held on into 2001. That was a really tricky topping process.

4. Currently there is no consensus on what the actual issue is: (i) Deflation or (ii) Inflation. Issue (i) will cause a faster topping process than (ii). So if (ii) this process could easily take another 18 mths+ before a really serious break comes, which could morph from (ii) back into (i) as the Fed. will likely move to YCC. first, triggering a type (i) break.

5. (a) Where are you going to watch for trouble, (b) what will it look like, (c) how fast will it be?

6. The problem with issues is that they are hidden until they can't be hidden any longer. So take sub-prime mortgages: everyone and their granny knew they were utter sh**e. They knew the dates of the resets. They were blowing up but being concealed. The market moved higher until really Bear Stearns blew up and LEH was the bridge too far. Not because it blew up...but because it was allowed to blow up. Had the Fed moved fast(er), the market may not have blown up to the same degree.

7. Now this time is I agree different, In 2009, the Fed. was doing $80B/month QE at the height of the crisis. Currently we are doing $120B/month. 

8. The 'issue' will become live if/when Powell talks 'Taper'. I doubt that will happen until later this year, possibly even 2022.

9. Until then, for an inflationary bust, we need commodities to go far higher. They are still to cheap to trigger a bust in stocks on an inflationary basis. Or, DXY tanks massively, down into the 70's.

10. The point is: all of this will take some time. Not weeks, months if not longer. In the meantime, stocks will continue to inflate. I agree it is a horribly dangerous market currently.

11. Psychologically, you will be fighting FOMO. That is a tough fight, especially when you are waiting for a bust to get back in. Really, really hard. We will have any number of garden variety pullbacks or corrections, say 3% to 5%, possibly out to 8%. These will be BTD opportunities. The difficulty will be to give up that upside. Then, when it really is the TOP, the first wave down will bring out the conditioning to BTD. That bounce, creates the issue. The next leg down, traps many.

What might you try.

12. BBOZ is not the correct way to play this. What you need are long dated (LEAPS) PUTS. They give you the downside profit, but automatically cap your losses to the premium paid. It will allow you to sit and wait without incurring open ended losses in something like BBOZ. There is however no upside.

13. Even better, go market neutral. You limit your upside to less than being outright long. You also benefit in a crash. This is my current stance. I am 100% market neutral. I'll grab (reduced) upside, but cannot be hurt in a crash.

So this post is way longer than I intended.


jog on
duc


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## pozindustrial (2 May 2021)

ducati916 said:


> Some basic facts.
> 
> 1. We have 3 asset bubbles concurrently: (a) stocks, (b) Bonds, (c) Real Estate.
> 2. The most important of those 3 bubbles is (b) Bonds. The other 2 bubbles key off of rates.
> ...



Such wonderful knowledge shared, thanks. I wish I understood half of what was said, but I will now have to find out about PUTS.


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## basilio (2 May 2021)

*Investing or gambling ?*

It seems to me that the conversation around a number of topics on ASF is closer to pure gambling plays. There is little if any inherent value in the investments themselves.  The process is attempting to identify stories/plays that can attract sufficient interest from punters to get onboard  and be agile enough to sell before the tide goes out.

The risk is that a widespread collapse of these schemes can undermine the structures that support the real economy. Simply speaking will our banking system survive if it's exposure to a wide range of shonky deals undermines it's viability ?


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## Gunnerguy (2 May 2021)

ducati916 said:


> Some basic facts.
> 
> 1. We have 3 asset bubbles concurrently: (a) stocks, (b) Bonds, (c) Real Estate.
> 2. The most important of those 3 bubbles is (b) Bonds. The other 2 bubbles key off of rates.
> ...



Nice post.
I agree with your comments about picking a top, taking a long time to really be the top, and your idea about Puts.
Some of my stop/losses were triggered on Friday resulting in some sales. I was 12% cash and now 25% cash.
I've been looking at options the last couple of weeks (see my other posts) just simple stuff, selling covered calls to get some income on held shares, and buying some Index calls/puts.
The old BTD has been rammed through for years. Its always tempting and nice when it works out.
I think in the current market what is required is flexibility, controlled emotions, having cash to use when you think, but ultimately holding a long term view, even longer than when the taper comes.
I remember the last taper tantrum, can't remember when it was 4,5,6 years ago ? There was a lot of volatility and emotions going up and down.
Geared GGUS has a nice graph, not surprising, and BBOZ could look similar if the market turns.
I'm still staying long, tightening my stops on those stocks that have done really well, and keeping some powder dry.
Still like the idea of options tho.

As always I have to remember that I am investing (75%) but also doing some speculation (25%) or maybe gambling.
Some would say 'Core' and 'Satellite'.

Gunnerguy


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## Smurf1976 (2 May 2021)

ducati916 said:


> 4. Picking the TOP of the market is far, far harder than getting the bottom. The bottom, among other variables, usually occurs quite quickly after a 500 basis point easing from the Fed.
> 
> 5. Why is it harder to pick the top?
> 
> Now we shift into very subjective musings.



Same applies to a lot of non-financial market things too, even in nature.

Eg the top of the rain cycle gives way to drought in a very gradual manner. Rain tapers off, the ground starts to dry out, it's months after the peak before anyone's talking about a drought.

At the other end however, well it's factually correct that the end of a dry period isn't always but often is followed by a flood the occurrence of which is extremely obvious and immediately changes the situation drastically.

Bottoms are an event, tops are a process. That occurs not just in markets but also many completely unrelated things.

As a passenger, it's much easier to know that the plane has landed (bottom) than to know that you've reached the highest altitude you'll reach on that flight (top).


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## over9k (3 May 2021)

Addressing the elephant in the room here: 

What makes you confident there's going to be a slump @pozindustrial ?


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## pozindustrial (3 May 2021)

over9k said:


> Addressing the elephant in the room here:
> 
> What makes you confident there's going to be a slump @pozindustrial ?




I am not trying to convince anyone, just searching whatifs, this is just my personal view. It could take two years, or two weeks. Here are some videos.
 


From my previous posts: 

"The signs of a bust I see are:
Things are way off balance. P/E ratios are off the scale, there is 'fashionable' investing and talk of easy money on the streets, the markets have continued to rise at an accelerated pace during bad economic times, fortunes have been publicized with tech stocks that lack fundamentals, historically busts follow booms (like night follows day) and this boom has gone on way too long. Even though there are whackos talking doom and gloom all over the internet competing with their opposite numbers spruiking fortune, there are some very respectable people issuing warnings with good fundamental reasons and I believe them. In my opinion it is all coming together and the longer it goes on or the higher the market rises the bigger the fall will be. That is simply the law of nature or balance. To me a bust is correctly predicted, but nobody can predict the timing accurately. I regard the present as 'High Fire Danger' times, that is my gut feeling."

"I am convinced there will be a big crash, but nobody can predict the timing. I have taken a punt and turned all investments into cash so I am ready. My situation is that I want to give my new SMSF a big boost so I can retire more comfortably in a few years. I aspire to be the person who sold out at the top and bought in at the bottom. Using leveraged investments I can profit from a downturn too which in the (high interest rate) past could be done with bonds. Having been a bystander over many crashes I have seen that the person who pulled their money out at the top was always seen as a God (The Big Short movie is an example). After a crash the regrets are everywhere - "if only I had.... not been as greedy, listened to all the signs that were flashing in my face, got out of the fire and cooled down, taken notice of ..., put more into cash and invested as the market crashed rather than panicked to get out etc."

I view being in the market at present as dangerous. Hey, most people become more conservative in older age so don't be too harsh on me."


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## qldfrog (3 May 2021)

pozindustrial said:


> I am not trying to convince anyone, just searching whatifs, this is just my personal view. It could take two years, or two weeks. Here are some videos.
> 
> 
> 
> ...




I do not believe anyone reasonable would rubbish your view: 
The issue is : how do you counter balance exposure
Market have been overinflated for a while and be8ng pessimistic, i run up the safer holltop quite quickly, but my investment experience is that bull can have amazing resilience in front of even facts.look how long it took even for the covid crash to start.you will find posts of mine here from end December.there was 2 months of obvious in your face potentially earth catastrophic events before the bulls went to sleep, and only to recover very quickly
So what are the options
-Go 100% cash
But anyone who shop, pay council rates or insurance premiums knows it will not go far that way as real life inflation is really biting right now around 3 to 4% while you can not get 1% interest before tax...
-bonds..well i put a part of my assets in a bond balanced old style safe mix...outch. 
-gold and pm..yep but gold is not immune to crash, when **** happens, everything goes down sharply
-Options and bear ETFs
They both suffer from aging decrease

So ideally you want to capture gain if any and also be protected.
I believe MrDuc @ducati916  gave some good informed advices.
I got into more bboz a couple of weeks ago but will probably reduce exposure this week if we still go nowhere.
You can not keep bboz long term, but definitively a good idea on a bear fall

One area missing is currency exposure/btc
USD tends to go up during crash, still... but that's getting challenged..as for btc..and crypto currencies..well who knows


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## pozindustrial (3 May 2021)

qldfrog said:


> I do not believe anyone reasonable would rubbish your view:
> The issue is : how do you counter balance exposure
> Market have been overinflated for a while and be8ng pessimistic, i run up the safer holltop quite quickly, but my investment experience is that bull can have amazing resilience in front of even facts.look how long it took even for the covid crash to start.you will find posts of mine here from end December.there was 2 months of obvious in your face potentially earth catastrophic events before the bulls went to sleep, and only to recover very quickly
> So what are the options
> ...



Agree, Duc's post was great. I think keeping a large proportion in cash is the only way to go if you know what to do with it when things go South. Warren Buffet as everyone knows has $130B in cash and he is not financially stupid. For me, I choose 100% cash because I realise I am not experienced enough in the markets to keep investing with safety, I will try to make some extra through BBOZ when a crash happens and then take advantage of some etfs if they drop like FOOD, FUEL, GEAR and SGP which all recovered quickly after March 2020 and are in areas that might offer solid growth in the future. I personally believe I can do better by waiting with all my money than risking a large part of it to make more hay while the sun shines. Holding BBOZ is not an option for me, just another gamble which I tried and luckily broke even on before getting out. I feel guilty about doing nothing with my money on a forum that is dedicated to investing it, but discussions have been interesting.


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## qldfrog (3 May 2021)

pozindustrial said:


> Agree, Duc's post was great. I think keeping a large proportion in cash is the only way to go if you know what to do with it when things go South. Warren Buffet as everyone knows has $130B in cash and he is not financially stupid. For me, I choose 100% cash because I realise I am not experienced enough in the markets to keep investing with safety, I will try to make some extra through BBOZ when a crash happens and then take advantage of some etfs if they drop like FOOD, FUEL, GEAR and SGP which all recovered quickly after March 2020 and are in areas that might offer solid growth in the future. I personally believe I can do better by waiting with all my money than risking a large part of it to make more hay while the sun shines. Holding BBOZ is not an option for me, just another gamble which I tried and luckily broke even on before getting out. I feel guilty about doing nothing with my money on a forum that is dedicated to investing it, but discussions have been interesting.



What about cash as usd or euro or swiss franc/yen?


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## pozindustrial (3 May 2021)

Too sophisticated for me and I need the cash to be readily available. The other thing is that AUD could outperform USD because our debt to gdp ratio is far better. Also, my safety is knowing I have gotten out at a high point and I have it all.


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## Smurf1976 (3 May 2021)

pozindustrial said:


> I am not trying to convince anyone, just searching whatifs, this is just my personal view. It could take two years, or two weeks.



As someone who recalls the events of 1999-00 rather well, there's an awful lot of warning signs around at the moment indeed it's eerily similar with the same sector, tech, and much the same sort of mainstream interest and incredibly high valuations.

I won't claim to know when it'll peak but caution is warranted at this point in my view.

For the record, my trading account is presently 27% cash, 73% stocks. That was below 1% cash on 17 April and has gone up from there. That's not a recommendation, just disclosing my position. I do not hold BBOZ but have traded small amounts in the past.


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## over9k (3 May 2021)

Smurf1976 said:


> As someone who recalls the events of 1999-00 rather well, there's an awful lot of warning signs around at the moment indeed it's eerily similar with the same sector, tech, and much the same sort of mainstream interest and incredibly high valuations.
> 
> I won't claim to know when it'll peak but caution is warranted at this point in my view.
> 
> For the record, my trading account is presently 27% cash, 73% stocks. That was below 1% cash on 17 April and has gone up from there. That's not a recommendation, just disclosing my position. I do not hold BBOZ but have traded small amounts in the past.



Mmm they were saying this 6 months ago though. 

There were very clear bubble signs (endless pumps & dumps) back then vs some very strong long term tailwinds this time. Not to mention the fact that so much of it is concentrated just in the fangs alone. 

They you have the very simple reality of extremely low interest rates which are stated to be extremely low for a long time keeping P/E's on the moon.


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## pozindustrial (3 May 2021)

Bill Gates recently sold 100% and 50% of some big stock names and bought 1. What is the sentiment around this?


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## over9k (3 May 2021)

You'd have to ask him that. Buffet sees a "red hot" economy for example: https://www.bloomberg.com/news/arti...ees-a-red-hot-economy-with-creeping-inflation 

Gates does a lot of things - I wouldn't go shadowing his moves.


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## pozindustrial (3 May 2021)

I think Blind Freddie could see the economy is Red Hot. That is the problem, the signal, the warning. Doesn't mean it will crash next week or in a month or even a year, but it will crash. These bubbles always crash. Having been in business since the late 1970's I have seen this happen quite a few times.


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## basilio (3 May 2021)

pozindustrial said:


> Bill Gates recently sold 100% and 50% of some big stock names and bought 1. What is the sentiment around this?




No surprises here. Bill is singing the Gamblers song.


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## bsnews (3 May 2021)

pozindustrial said:


> I think Blind Freddie could see the economy is Red Hot. That is the problem, the signal, the warning. Doesn't mean it will crash next week or in a month or even a year, but it will crash. These bubbles always crash. Having been in business since the late 1970's I have seen this happen quite a few times.



The real problem with well people is that through our own bias we find the information we want to hear or read to validate our position.
At the end of the day the market does not have any opinions.


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## over9k (3 May 2021)

Ok so there's something to think about right there - what makes you say it's a bubble?


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## Smurf1976 (3 May 2021)

over9k said:


> Mmm they were saying this 6 months ago though.



It's a bit like the kitten playing with the balloon.

When is anyone's guess but at some point there's a big bang and a startled kitten wondering what on earth happened.


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## Gunnerguy (3 May 2021)

over9k said:


> Ok so there's something to think about right there - what makes you say it's a bubble?



With respect to all contributors,  these ‘discussions’ come down to two points, and to be a bit of a ‘mediator they are ......

1. P/E’s are way above the median for previous ‘years’ and Civid is not cured yet. A crash is coming, and 

2. Interest rates are basically zero and stimulus by many Governments are huge, the market will continue to go up.

I don’t think  this has occurred in the past history (PE’s & low interest rates)  so it’s up to the investor to decide which suites their ‘argument’.

This may be simplistic, but I do feel these are the two sides to the coin.

He/she who chooses one over the other, with no historical evidence, as there is none, is a better man than me.

My take is, if you are satisfied with what you have (achieved), a bird in the had is better than 2 in the bush. If you are not and want/need more, then accept the risk.

There is no correct answer, yet, but by Christmas we will see.

Stay safe all.

Gunnerguy.


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## over9k (4 May 2021)

I've gone to pretty painstaking lengths in the virus thread to explain why any inflation we're likely to see is going to be short term and powell is also on record as stating the same thing. Combine that with forward guidance being that they're going to keep rates LOW/err on the side of overheating and then the significant amount of soft power/america first economic policy that is coming from washington (Biden's been three times as hawkish on china three times as quickly as anyone was expecting) as well as the simple reality of the economics of demographics and I see major tailwinds from both a P/E and a raw economic growth perspective and so do plenty of others. 













I'm genuinely trying to have a discussion here when I say that I don't see how these are bubble conditions. Like what's happened with semiconductors or electric vehicles over the past year, there are major, major long term tailwinds behind the market(s) at the moment. 

We aren't talking widespread mortgage fraud, ninja loans, pumps & dumps etc etc like what set the .com bubble or GFC off. These conditions are VERY different.


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## over9k (4 May 2021)

Oh and I forgot to mention how the virus/lockdowns have laid waste to all the small mum & dad businesses and allowed corporate america to swoop in & pick up the spoils. To put it another way, there's been a demand transfer from the small now non-existent businesses to whatever remains(ed). 

So in other words, if you transfer demand to publicly listed companies, markets soar as a result. This is not rocket surgery.


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## over9k (4 May 2021)

pozindustrial said:


> Bill Gates recently sold 100% and 50% of some big stock names and bought 1. What is the sentiment around this?




Found your answer:


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## pozindustrial (4 May 2021)

over9k said:


> Found your answer:
> 
> View attachment 123735
> 
> ...



Hahahaha, that is funny! But the selloff of stocks was for the foundation, not Bill personally.


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## qldfrog (4 May 2021)

Gunnerguy said:


> With respect to all contributors,  these ‘discussions’ come down to two points, and to be a bit of a ‘mediator they are ......
> 
> 1. P/E’s are way above the median for previous ‘years’ and Civid is not cured yet. A crash is coming, and
> 
> ...



And we may not know by Christmas...


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## over9k (4 May 2021)

I think there might be at least some small connection between the two.


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## finicky (28 November 2021)

So this might seem opportunistic, being that the djia was down 900 or so points on Friday, but if I were looking at this weekly chart of BBOZ and didn't know what stock it represented, I would consider a basing interpretation: the candle bodies have been getting small, it's looking a  chance at a 'W' or 'double bottom, the momentum is rising. Volume could get interesting this next week.
But is it really worth buying? Your buying and selling would need to have been pretty sharp to have made a significant return on the Wuhan crash, March 2020. 

Weekly


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## qldfrog (29 November 2021)

finicky said:


> So this might seem opportunistic, being that the djia was down 900 or so points on Friday, but if I were looking at this weekly chart of BBOZ and didn't know what stock it represented, I would consider a basing interpretation: the candle bodies have been getting small, it's looking a  chance at a 'W' or 'double bottom, the momentum is rising. Volume could get interesting this next week.
> But is it really worth buying? Your buying and selling would need to have been pretty sharp to have made a significant return on the Wuhan crash, March 2020.
> 
> Weekly
> View attachment 133537



You do not treat these neg eft as weekly, any even medium term exposure is a killer..i know from experience.you are in and out quickly and in my opinion..weekly is not the right time frame to profit from these.
But you can make a profit from these with a system based approach,removed from own human fear and greed


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## DannyB0000 (29 November 2021)

Trouble is you don’t how deep this correction will be.  This sell off could be over by tomorrow and dip buyers step in and the market rallies again.   You need a deep enough correction like March 2020 crash to really profit from owing BBOZ or BBUS. 

Dow futures have already moving up slightly as I write this post.


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## Sean K (10 December 2021)

Looks like this has found some support (the top? - maybe too early) and I'm waiting patiently to see a higher high and low. Probably around the level where the 200dma currently sits.


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## Sean K (15 December 2021)

Is this a potential quadruple bottom @DrBourse ?


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## DrBourse (15 December 2021)

Sean K said:


> Is this a potential quadruple bottom @DrBourse ?
> 
> View attachment 134320



NOPE - it's 1 x Triple Bottom, and a Potential 2nd TB.


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## JohnDe (5 January 2022)

Woah, currently $4.00 Who's game?


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## divs4ever (5 January 2022)

not yet ( for me )

much closer to March ( say late February  , or even the first week of March )

 some big decisions  still to be made ( in Australia and Globally ) like will the Fed back off from the taper  , but several others

 good luck


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## frugal.rock (5 January 2022)

JohnDe said:


> Woah, currently $4.00 Who's game?



My game... balls of brass


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## DannyB0000 (5 January 2022)

divs4ever said:


> not yet ( for me )
> 
> much closer to March ( say late February  , or even the first week of March )
> 
> ...



Most likely what happens to the inflation story and how the Fed responds to it with rate hikes or a policy mistake.  If the rate hikes are to steep it may lead to a crash.  Market might crater up to 50%, deep enough to profit from holding BBOZ and BBUS.


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## divs4ever (5 January 2022)

well these Central Banks have been kicking the can  so well Ronaldo must be green with envy 

 MAYBE they have a few fancy shuffles left (  and MAYBE they can only jaw-bone )


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## Sean K (5 January 2022)

I was getting all ready for this to break up before Xmas...


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## frugal.rock (5 January 2022)

I can't stand the donkey BBOZ.
Just got bored today and didn't really want to buy much else and earning a quid or two is better than the banks having my cash.


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## finicky (5 January 2022)

frugal.rock said:


> ... didn't really want to buy much else and earning a quid or two is better than the banks having my cash.



KWR was better than cash today .. hint hint


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## frugal.rock (6 January 2022)

frugal.rock said:


> I can't stand the donkey BBOZ



Good donkey. Have a carrot.


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## eskys (6 January 2022)

Bravo, Fred, can't see donkey's haemorrhoid....the good old doctor applied some hirudoid


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## Sean K (21 January 2022)

The donkey is finding some life.

Breaking that resistance probably equates to breaking down through 7450 ish on the XAO.


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## JohnDe (21 January 2022)

frugal.rock said:


> I can't stand the donkey BBOZ.
> Just got bored today and didn't really want to buy much else and earning a quid or two is better than the banks having my cash.




Nice return of about $0.34 over the past 5 days. I'm surprised that it jumped only 4.7% today after the blood bath, though trading day is not over yet.


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## Sean K (25 January 2022)

Looks like it's broken up.


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## finicky (25 January 2022)

Weekly scale is presenting a milder picture?


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## Sean K (25 January 2022)

finicky said:


> Weekly scale is presenting a milder picture?
> 
> View attachment 136487




Certainly flattens it out. My weekly below. I've bought some, hope I have to sell it soon.


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## Sean K (27 January 2022)

I am truly hoping that my purchase of this is short lived. Sort of. I'm still way on the sidelines waiting for a fire sale. Topped up on a couple of quality long term assets on this weakness, but still concerned about 2022.


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## Sean K (27 January 2022)

Sean K said:


> I am truly hoping that my purchase of this is short lived. Sort of. I'm still way on the sidelines waiting for a fire sale. Topped up on a couple of quality long term assets on this weakness, but still concerned about 2022.
> 
> View attachment 136615




YIKES! The VIX must be peaking. I really want to have to sell this, but unfortunately I might have to buy more.


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## frugal.rock (11 February 2022)

Starting to break, again.
Markets exhibiting distress signals imo.


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## Sean K (11 February 2022)

frugal.rock said:


> Starting to break, again.
> Markets exhibiting distress signals imo.
> 
> View attachment 137353



I was out when it broke back down through the support line. Didn't expect such a big bounce on the XAO 7200 mark. Thought the cat must have landed on 4 feet.


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## Ann (12 May 2022)

Smurf1976 said:


> Same applies to a lot of non-financial market things too, even in nature.
> 
> Eg the top of the rain cycle gives way to drought in a very gradual manner. Rain tapers off, the ground starts to dry out, it's months after the peak before anyone's talking about a drought.
> 
> ...





I think there are some tops that can be picked. When I see a long term falling trendline (NHC) or have calculated a swing trade outcome (SMR) or if a stock or index stalls at an all-time high and tries three times to overcome it, I see that as a three-time loser such as the All Ords at the moment. Am I always right? Certainly not! I am right often enough to give me confidence to trade using these indicators.

As our resident wiseman Smurf said_, "the top of the rain cycle gives way to drought in a very gradual manner_." I am now slowly liquidating all my holdings as I feel we are at the top and now will expect a slow unwinding of the markets until...again quoting Smurf..._"At the other end however, well it's factually correct that the end of a dry period isn't always but often is followed by a flood the occurrence of which is extremely obvious and immediately changes the situation drastically."_

I am now preparing for the flood, looking at these sorts of funds, taking into account the wisdoms and experience this thread offers.

I can read a falling chart as much as a rising one but I thought this was interesting. The S&P/ASX 200 Inverse Daily ($XIN) tracks the inverse return (whether positive or negative) of the S&P/ASX 200's daily returns by taking a short position in the index.









bsnews said:


> The real problem with well people is that through our own bias we find the information we want to hear or read to validate our position.
> At the end of the day the market does not have any opinions.



So true bsnews. This is also very true when reading a chart as well. That is why I really enjoy reading a chart where I have no interest or bias in an outcome.


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## eskys (12 May 2022)

BBOZ is a useful tool to gauge the direction of the market. Regardless of what the SPI indicates, checking BBOZ's indicative price each morning sets my plan to trade for the day.

 BBOZ premarket was up 9 cents, spi was down 31 if I remember right....  get out of what I bought yesterday and start again, I thought, and did.......not something useful for everyone ..........nitty gritty bits of trading......of course, it's early hours .. only lunch time and anything can happen in the afternoon


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## Sean K (14 June 2022)

A bit of a break up here. Maybe BBOZ finally has it's day in the sun.


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## qldfrog (1 July 2022)

BBOZ my call for this month competition, we need to see a collapse panic before the feds give up and start pumping again.This month might be the one, few stock would rise, even gold but for inverse ones..such as BBOZ.EVN after being massacred was taken so this is my second choice in the competition.
Let's see..


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## peter2 (7 September 2022)

Considered *BBOZ *for the Sept comp but then I sobered up. While I understand the attractiveness of these inverse ETFs I can't help but feel "unclean" when considering a short term position. My skin crawls thinking about it.

This could be that I'm bullish on the market most of the time. Even when bearish I'll just wait it out or short an index rather than consider a *BBOZ* trade.

_Note: I do hold a *BBUS* position but I'm more bearish on the US than the ASX. Like gardening, I'm resigned to getting dirty holding this inverse ETF. _


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## divs4ever (7 September 2022)

sometimes you need to get down in the weeds 

 but yes given the widespread unrest ( and upcoming elections in some places )

 you have to wonder when there will be more QE , or stimulus  , debt forgiveness , subsidies ( etc etc , ie more excuses to flood the market with cash )

 will they do it ,  why not ?? 
 sticking a band-aid on an amputated leg is the treatment they know best 

 i hold a few BBUS ( still deep under-water )   am more likely to wait for under 6000 ( for the XJO  and start nibbling at GEAR this time ( in the dips )


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