# BBP - Babcock and Brown Power



## Hephaestus (23 August 2007)

BBP seems to be well oversold atm.  For a company taking out some of Alinta's goodies, with prospects of higher energy prices etc, what feedback do we have on Babcock & Brown Power.

Their price plummeted since they announced zero profit for the year, but this does not seem to have any impact on next years earnings capacity.

Stupid me bought at $3.45 and sold at $2.52 as I had to preserve some non-market cash.  Good recovery since but marred by yesterday's poor effort.

Comment as you please.


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## roland (3 October 2007)

Slow and steady wins the race, power consumption set to increase 10% pa, Tassie now in the picture. Good dividend yield. Bought on the dip and gone up a cent or 2 nearly every day.

Cheers
Roland


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## dj_420 (3 October 2007)

BBP actually look like they could have reversed the downtrend on the charts. Has been in a solid downtrend since June, false breakdown in correction to enter back into downtrend. 

This last week of trade saw the MACD cross and the SMA cross about a week trade before that. Trade range had been tightening and formed a descending pennant which broke down before breaking up (wierd). 

Anyway I would like the volume to be a bit larger but it still IMO has crossed the downtrend on both the downtrend line, SMA and MACD all crossing within the last week. Perhaps a change in sentiment, BBP has after all been sold down well off its highs.

Stock has strong support at 2.83 by the chart. I would put short term downside risk at 2.80 odd. 

The upside potential BBP needs to break 3.00 then move up through 3.30 where it trended inside 3.30 - 3.50 for a period.


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## dj_420 (4 October 2007)

BBP already up over 5% in early trade on large volume. Technically it looked like a trend reversal, a lot of large positions seem to be been bought up


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## DionM (17 December 2007)

Down sharply the last few days, only news seems to have been the completion of the AlintaAGL acquisition - but I can't understand why that would trigger two down days?


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## roland (17 December 2007)

I don't have a clue either. I've run out of dollars following it down 

One could guess at the implications of "dirty" power with their coal fired power plants, and the "green" movemment?


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## dj_420 (17 December 2007)

Yeah I got a 10% plus swing out of these guys and took an exit around 3.20.

Chart wise is not looking good.


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## DionM (17 December 2007)

I wonder if people misread the Change of Substantial Holdings notice from BNB, where they specifically state they haven't sold any holdings, but it's just been diluted due to the AlintaAGL acquisition and issue of shares?  It's mentioned on the first/cover page in bold, but if you just read the notice it would seem like BNB have sold up bigtime 

roland - could be some negative news about their coal fired stations, but they also have gas fired stations, which are considered cleaner?  Flow on from the Kyoto sign-up maybe?  Hard to say.  Also hard to mask out the general downward sentiment of the market, even BBW is down as well.

Perhaps another thought is BBP might try and play for the Alinta assets that SPN failed to acquire, and the market doesn't like that idea?


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## roland (18 December 2007)

Nice news release - about time I had something to smile about, and a 0.13 dividend. .....what else is new? - good news and the SP still falls


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## DionM (18 December 2007)

roland said:


> Nice news release - about time I had something to smile about, and a 0.13 dividend. .....what else is new? - good news and the SP still falls




Yes a little bit of good news I guess.  Goes part of the way to easing the sour taste in my mouth with losses, but hey.

Quite a lot of restating of their financial position in the cover letter, I wonder if they think the market has doubts about their ability to access debt, hence the SP slide.   Similarly, they also clarified the environmental impacts of their plants as well - again maybe they think the market is a bit spooked.

I already have a substantial portion of my investment with BBP, else I'd be thinking about topping up at these levels.


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## Tristo (9 January 2008)

First post 

So i've been watching BBP for awhile, and recently, phew - the trend is down man!

What's happening with BBP?  People cashing out, stockmarket jitters causing sell offs? I'm tempted to put a buy in under $2.35 but i'm just not sure when the sliding will stop.


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## DionM (9 January 2008)

No idea what's driven it.  Can't be financial related - they have stated their position is good.  They do have a number of "nasty coal-fired" stations, but also a lot of gas stations (and there are plenty of CSM explorers to find gas for them!).

With electricity demand soaring and these guys owning so many base load or profitable peaking stations, I can't see much of a downsde to their business.  Base load is a nice revenue stream if you own a cheap generator - you always run as the station is part of the "always needed" energy, and peaking stations are a nice stream of money when the electricity price spikes.

As for other energy sources - Nuclear has a ~20yr lead time for first substantial units, solar and wind are not reliable enough to be "base load" class (and you would need anywhere from 500-1000 wind generators to replace 1 big coal fired station anyway) ... 

The CEO is a very very cluey guy, with a background in electricity markets, so I'm sure he knows his stuff when it comes to buying and running stations profitably.  

So none of that explains the price ...


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## prana (9 January 2008)

Not sure if this helps, I did speak to a few traders about BBP and similarly, BBI's. They all have one thing to say, 'high debt' (substantiated or not, you decide). I've been a holder of BBP since they floated, and will continue to. Their revenue although high, did not translate to positive NPAT last financial year, and so did shock buyers on the downside after  reporting. Afterwards, the subprime and credit tightening and then AGL Energy's slump put this down to discounted levels  has been dumped into a technical downtrend since - the biggest concern is still fear and very high gearing that concerns traders.

To add to the complexity, interest rates are on the up, so the yield suddenly doesnt seem as lushes as before however, I suspect when rates fall again, this entire high yield sector will again be in focus. 

Like I said, I'm a holder and like it, so I'll continue to be one personally - don't shoot the messenger.


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## Tristo (9 January 2008)

Thanks for your comments - just fyi I'm an Electrical Engineer (studying, but working full time) in the power distribution side of things (important note, i've got absolutely nothing to do with BBP as i'm in NSW).

DionM, you summed things up nicely. I'm familiar with it all... and further to your infor, NSW is being sold off, BBP are a potential buyer.  Energy demands are only increasing. Wind as you say, offers little guaranteed power. Clean coal etc are distant realities.  I'm looking to buy, but i'll be watching their downward spiral.

prana, interesting about the debt side of things. thanks.

(Again a note: BBP have nothing to do with me and I've got no insider info to offer.)


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## DionM (9 January 2008)

Tristo said:


> Thanks for your comments - just fyi I'm an Electrical Engineer (studying, but working full time) in the power distribution side of things (important note, i've got absolutely nothing to do with BBP as i'm in NSW).




While we're disclosing things, I'm also a elect. eng, working in Qld for a transmission company.  But I'm quite removed from anything to do with the generators, except watch how many MW they pump out (and how many MVAr they suck back ... but that's another story!).

Prana - interesting about debt.  I must admit to not looking into it as much as I probably should.  I also hold BBI, too.


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## prana (10 January 2008)

lol funny that, I'm also elec eng some 10 years ago, in power and high voltage. No wonder we are attracted to both BBI & BBP. :


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## roland (17 January 2008)

Personally I think BBP is an absolute bargain at this price. I have been following down since $3.00. My lowest entry is $2.21, so you can tell that after todays rise I am pretty happy right now.

Here is a exert from tonights Commsec's Research Insight - just incase you don' have it already:

BBP2: BUY / OUT PERFORM Valuation: $3.69

The credit squeeze-led correction has had a disproportionate impact on the Utilities and
Toll Road sectors given these sectors have many highly geared (and financially
engineered) structures.
No utility or toll road out performed the ASX200 accumulation index in 2007. In these
market conditions, the focus on these companies can be expected but the reaction
appears to have been exaggerated given:
  most of the companies have very little exposure to rising debt costs due to their
financing structures and hedging profiles, and
  utilities with regulated assets are typically able to pass through these higher financing
costs (at least for the most part).
The recent pull back has created opportunities in the sectors with many stocks trading
significantly below their valuations including: BBP, BBI, SPN, TCL and MIG.
ORG and SKI are expected to continue to perform in times of volatility. ORG has sound
growth options whereas SKI could be considered relatively light on for financially
engineering (albeit with a near term refinance scheduled).
Among the major issues to impact the Utilities and Toll Road sectors, along with the
stocks to watch are the following:
  Credit market turbulence. The stocks to watch in this respect are: BBP, SPN and SKI
with near term refinances scheduled.
  NSW privatisation. The stocks to watch in this respect are: ORG, AGL and BBP.
  Emissions trading, MRET and the Garnaut report. The stocks to watch in this respect
are: ORG, AGL, and BBP on emissions trading and MRET developments. HDF and
APA on gas transportation arrangements. SKI and SPN on interval meter roll out.
  Wholesale energy prices, customer churn and impact on retail margins. The stocks to
watch in this respect are: ORG, AGK, and BBP – 1H08 results and also trends in
churn prices during CY08.
  Regulatory trends and the move to new national regulators. The stocks to watch in
this respect are: ENV, SPN, DUE - ESC Final Decision (end of Feb 08). APA, ENV,
SPN, SKI, DUE – AER WACC Review (later part of CY08). AGL, ORG – Removal of
retail price caps. DUE, ENV – Structural change in regulated utilities. SKI, SPN –
Interval metering developments.
  And finally in the context of Toll Roads, the Eastlink opening and potential
acquisitions.
Consumer staples


You will notice that BBP is mentioned many times. Commsec, Aegis and the Aegis Consensus are all very strong on BBP. Additionally they are in the top 10 dividend yielders.

So, I'm there "until death do us part" - well sort of.

Just my opinion - no advice to be taken from this post.


Oh, I am into BBW as well - all for similar reasons ... and Zinifex because I am stupid


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## DionM (18 January 2008)

roland said:


> So, I'm there "until death do us part" - well sort of.
> 
> Just my opinion - no advice to be taken from this post.
> 
> ...




You must be copying my portfolio ... I have BBP, BBW and ZFX too.  Plus BBI ...

They mention that BBP has near term financing pending, but on 18/12 BBP released a statement saying they have no requirement to refinance until FY2009, and that 2009 refininacing is limited to Alinta asset debt.

They are highly geared (68%) and 90% hedged, but then again, they are part of the BNB machine so you would think they would not have issues getting finance.  Power generation is also a bit of a cash cow, it's not something that people can do without (not like luxury cars from BMW or nice shirts from DJs).


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## roland (18 January 2008)

DionM said:


> You must be copying my portfolio ... I have BBP, BBW and ZFX too.  Plus BBI ...
> 
> They mention that BBP has near term financing pending, but on 18/12 BBP released a statement saying they have no requirement to refinance until FY2009, and that 2009 refininacing is limited to Alinta asset debt.
> 
> They are highly geared (68%) and 90% hedged, but then again, they are part of the BNB machine so you would think they would not have issues getting finance.  Power generation is also a bit of a cash cow, it's not something that people can do without (not like luxury cars from BMW or nice shirts from DJs).




Hey DionM, I have enough BBP and BBW to almost warrant a surname change to Babcock. In fact I dumped big brother BNB to grab some more of the siblings.

I sometimes feel that BBP and BBW are run more like mathematical equations rather than a pure business model - I suppose you read the latest presentation from BBW ... I couldn't make head nor tail really, something or other about different worksheets available to be able to plan investment routes .....blah, blah.

I wonder if BBP will be in contention for the privatisation of the power???? Maybe the ACCC won't like the fact that BBP has it's own gas, have their own generation equipment and want retail as well.....?

Interesting times yet to come, I don't think that BB(P,W,I) have even started their run yet


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## roland (18 January 2008)

so far BBP is holding half of yesterday's gains and BBW have gone positive. You must get to a point when the SP is stupidly low and would defy logic for it to fall any further.


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## Col Lector (18 January 2008)

roland said:


> I wonder if BBP will be in contention for the privatisation of the power???? Maybe the ACCC won't like the fact that BBP has it's own gas, have their own generation equipment and want retail as well.....?




Gidday Roland, Dion... Have you been following the Babcock organised management takeover of Sydney Gas by AJL? This involves AGK, Babcock (BBP?), SGL, AJL & possible others. I have commented on the potential scenarios on the AJL thread.
A closer look here may uncover the BBP approach to the power privatisation and how they may organise to address competition issues.
IMO something big is being put in place....AJL & SGL/AGK will likely control almost all the Coal-seam tenements between SW Sydney, and Gloucester. Positioning ahead of a move to gas-fired generation??
Babcock is likely to seek to utilise potential carbon-credits within this mix.


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## DionM (23 January 2008)

On a day where the market is mostly positive, BBP still manages to drop 

This probably explains it:
32 buyers for 204,298 units 
119 sellers for 1,095,732 units

Seems no-one wants this stock, trading down on very light volume though?

Untested waters too, never been this low.

Col Lector - No I haven't looked at the AJL aspect.


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## roland (23 January 2008)

Yes Dion, most depressing. BBP is my largest holding. Thinking I might put a bid in for $1.95 

Either that or wait until it does a turnaround - hard to know what to do.


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## DionM (23 January 2008)

Roland,

I suppose the only saving grace is in it's short time of trading (floated at 2.70ish in early 07 from what I can tell?) it's moved up quite quickly and rapidly, so maybe it will do the same again.  I actually bought in at around 2.70 (not at float though).

BBP is second only to ZFX as the biggest holding and biggest losses I have on my plate.  

I am resisting the urge to buy more, mainly because of my 'rules' about having no more than a certain percentage of my total portfolio in a single stock - I pushed that rule with ZFX and BBP and look where that's taken me ...


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## roland (23 January 2008)

I'm averaged at $2.76, but have around 37,000 of these suckers - so each cent hurts.

I think I probably will not get any more until the dividends come through and maybe do some dollar averaging.

I am not overly worried with either BBP or ZFX due to my switch to a longer term focus and dividend harvesting.

I also have a ton of BBW, which hasn't faired much better.


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## roland (23 February 2008)

Professor Garnaut's Climate Change Report could have some consequences for BBP:



> In terms of potential impact for utility stocks, BBP is most at risk followed by AGL Energy. Coal-fired generation contributes approximately 32.5% to BBP’s EBITDA.
> 
> Its gas-fired generators are likely to be indifferent or slightly better off from an ETS. While BBP’s current stock price is more affected by the impending $3.0b refinance, the approach to permit allocation is crucial to BBP and
> its future value.
> ...




The above is from Comsec's Market Bulletin last night


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## roland (25 February 2008)

Feeling a bit lonely here with BBP 

Must be the only one holding by now - but, I'm still proving to be resiliant. BBP down a heap today and it's certainly not all about coal and the possibility of the overheads on greenhouse gases since BBW was down as well.

Must still be the financing cost increases, interest rates etc.

Another thing, I haven't been able to factor the impact of the talks of power privatisations.

In any case grabbed a few more today.


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## DionM (26 February 2008)

Still here and still holding BBP, for better or worse.  

Certainly out of favour at present with the market.  Ah well, at the end of the day, as much as people might dislike coal power, a viable alternative is many many many years away.


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## roland (27 February 2008)

Well, I am happy with that result, market likes it too:

*2008 INTERIM RESULT IN LINE WITH SCHEME FORECASTS -
DIVERSIFIED PORTFOLIO WELL POSITIONED FOR GROWTH*
Babcock & Brown Power (ASX:BBP) today announced 1H2008 EBITDA1
of $154 million, in line with Alinta Scheme Booklet forecasts. A fully tax
deferred distribution of 13 cents per security is payable on 17 March 2008.

*The distribution is fully covered by operating cash flows.*

Paul Simshauser, CEO said “We are pleased with the performance of the
BBP portfolio and the excellent progress achieved with integrating the
Alinta assets.

“Overall, the portfolio is delivering in line with expectations with strong
power generation performance being offset by slightly lower that expected
results in the Alinta retail business. BBP re-affirms FY08 DPS guidance of
26.1cps reflecting the benefits of a diversified portfolio. BBP is positioned
to generate good growth for Securityholders from the portfolio of
generation assets in Australia and New Zealand and the Alinta retail
business in WA and *cashflow available for distribution in 09F is expected
to exceed 08F*.


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## roland (6 March 2008)

I wonder why BBP and BBW have such a long time period between going ex div and the payment date?

3 months quoted as XD certainly doesn't inspire any new investors looking for returns during that period.


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## DionM (8 March 2008)

Don't look at the SP now Roland 

My bottom drawer is becoming quite full ...


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## SenTineL (27 March 2008)

The market at the moment is ridiculous.

At least I made some cash with the divvies on this one....


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## roland (27 April 2008)

I'm still here and still holding, have around 40,000 of these fellows now. Every 0.10 down, I buy some more, every 0.10 up I sell. Truthfully, BBP is a really boring stock, but slowly but surely I am getting ahead, the tax deferred dividends means my holdings decrease in average cost over time.

June 25 will see more dividends coming - pity there is such a long delay between ex-div and pay day


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## SenTineL (28 April 2008)

what a stinker of a stock.

Spewing i held on for as long as i did. i can see it improving long term but by the time it goes back up i shudder to think what i'm missing out on by not putting that cash somewhere else.

maybe i will cut my losses in a month or 2......
see what happens


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## roland (28 April 2008)

It's not really doing a whole lot worse than the other BNB satellites - BBI, BBW etc - or even BNB itself for that matter. The saving grace is the large dividend yield.

I played BBW through a couple of dividend returns and with the next one in June, I will be close to having all stock parcels in profit and with a healthy future return.

If only BBP could have a couple of up sessions then we could get on with doing something with this stock. Maybe with winter coming we'll have a little more profit with increased electricity usage ...


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## reece55 (28 April 2008)

Still no update on the debt re-finance. IMO, until BBP let the market know about what the pricing is for the debt they are looking to refinance (which I might add they have been doing for 1.5 months now), the share price is going to go no where...

Cheers


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## roland (28 April 2008)

reece55 said:


> Still no update on the debt re-finance. IMO, until BBP let the market know about what the pricing is for the debt they are looking to refinance (which I might add they have been doing for 1.5 months now), the share price is going to go no where...
> 
> Cheers




I sort of agree reece, but with the return of capital arrangement with deferred dividends - even if the SP goes nowhere the cost of ownership drops, so in effect you get the same result as an increase in SP ...  and a return (if you hold) with no CGT event.


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## roland (30 April 2008)

Well, I am a lot happier this week with the performance of BBP's SP. I followed this stinker all the way down to $1.59, picking up a couple of thou every 0.10 or so. I am a little (maybe a lot) over committed, but with the rise to $1.90 today - I've been able to start pulling some profit.

The capital return makes playing the BBP game a little easier so I am pretty happy with this stock. We have another ex-div date coming around 25 June which will again reduce our capital cost - all good.

The latest presentation has obviously added to BBP's positive sentiment. I also noted that we only have 2 x coal powered sites - I thought it was more...


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## roland (7 May 2008)

Well, 2 days stuck at $1.95 give or take a cent. BBP is proving a little more difficult than the greener equivalent BBW 

I've been trading BBP with 0.10 gaps, I feel that it is now time to switch to 0.05 which is justified since the swings have slowed and profit taking through the 10 cent gaps have netted enough to follow even lower if necessary. 

Only around 7 weeks before ex dividend and want to be stocked up enough to get a good capital return.

I'd like to get BBP into the same position as I have traded BBW, after short term trading and capital returns I have a good sized amount for continued returns, and after another 12 months I would have recouped all costs of the share holdings - so "free shares" so to speak.

The latest Investor Report for BBP looks as solid as usual, debt and financing is under control ... so I am still not sure what is holding BBP back. Maybe someone smarter than me can comment.


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## SenTineL (7 May 2008)

yeah its frustrating

hopefully the upward momentum will continue in the next weeks..........

its been climbing slowly


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## roland (12 May 2008)

Good little run this afternoon with BBP - managed to offload 1 x parcel at $2.02, now only have 31,210 units 

Next target is sell at $2.12 or buy back at $1.95. The switch to $0.05 spreads rather than $0.10 spreads has me quite excited. It will be interesting to see what the budget effects will be, must keep in mind the return of capital on June 25.

BBP has now become a little more interesting in comparison to BBW since the percentage swings are much greater. In fact BBW has been stuck in a range for around 2 weeks now.

BBI is still there and analyst sentiment says to buy, but at $1.14 - $1.1.6 for a month with a lower dividend yield than BBP/BBW seems to scream - not yet.

Actually hoping for a lower day tomorrow, nothing is as sweet as getting back the shares you sold at a profit for less


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## roland (13 May 2008)

Great day today for BBP - up $0.11 or 5.56% with a volume of $12 Mil - that's huge for BBP 

I am going to have to think hard about my next sell target since the ex div date is slowly getting closer


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## SenTineL (13 May 2008)

yeah it was good roland.

about time we hadan upward move on this one its been a dissapointing buy for me.....................


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## roland (13 May 2008)

SenTineL said:


> yeah it was good roland.
> 
> about time we hadan upward move on this one its been a dissapointing buy for me.....................




maybe you should see BBP in a different light. With the capital return, your investment will, over time, end up having cost you less. I don't think that you could expect a huge SP gain on a stock that returns such a large dividend.

The secret to this stock (IMO) is to hold for a couple of dividend returns and let the tax defference work for you. Don't worry too much about the SP, just think about the % return.

Aegis still have a 12 month target of $3.56, so if you can hang in there, the 10% return now, will be the equivalent of a 20% return on your capital in a year or so.

Have faith SenTineL - nothing is going to stop the demand for electricity


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## roland (21 May 2008)

Well, all BBP holders - all 3 of us 

What a shocker of a day ..... down $0.135 or 6.72%, the hit on financials today decided to give BBP just that little added whack 

Just as well I was selling last week as the SP improved, had to buy all the silly buggers back again - that wasn't the plan 

Back to holding 39,210 - way too many! In contrast, BBW did so much better (or less worse?)


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## SenTineL (21 May 2008)

Way too many I agree, my holding is only small and I should have never allowed it to go below 10% loss.

I've been holding on but my patience is running out, I will look at putting in new stop loss ASAP on this sucker and if it goes there I'm going to cut my losses which I hate to do. I don't get into this position often so I'm spewing a bit.

New disciplines will take effect


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## roland (21 May 2008)

SenTineL said:


> Way too many I agree, my holding is only small and I should have never allowed it to go below 10% loss.
> 
> I've been holding on but my patience is running out, I will look at putting in new stop loss ASAP on this sucker and if it goes there I'm going to cut my losses which I hate to do. I don't get into this position often so I'm spewing a bit.
> 
> New disciplines will take effect




Hey SenTineL, maybe you should consider holding for the div, it's really worth waiting for - hasn't been announced, but should be around the 25th June.


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## SenTineL (21 May 2008)

yeah thanks roland, i was looking at doing something soon but also remembered the divies so will hold until after June, maybe July so maybe good timing.


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## prana (22 May 2008)

I'm holding through. Everyone uses power, even in a recession. Not concerned for the long term, not a trader.


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## X888 (22 May 2008)

prana said:


> I'm holding through. Everyone uses power, even in a recession. Not concerned for the long term, not a trader.




Me neither Im slowly accumulating at these low prices.

This is the most shorted stock on the ASX once it starts going up it will fly as people will be covering their shorts.


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## roland (22 May 2008)

BBP zapped again!

I nervously grabbed some more at $1.765

and now .... we have some news coming - please be gentle


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## roland (22 May 2008)

Boring stuff again...

*BBP DEBT REFINANCING UPDATE*
Babcock & Brown Power (ASX:BBP) today confirms that it is on track to
finalise the debt refinancing. In addition to the $3.1 billion of corporate debt
facilities, BBP’s current capital commitments are approximately $3.4 billion
which includes additional capital expenditure associated with a number of
assets including Tamar, the Newman expansion and the purchase of
minority interests in Braemar and Uranquinty.

In this context, BBP is considering its overall capital structure and
appropriate gearing level. There are a number of options available to fund
the additional capital commitments including debt, asset sales, asset joint
ventures or various forms of equity. BBP intends to reach a decision on
the optimal capital structure around the time of the close of the core
refinancing with funding expected to occur in early June 2008.
Mr Paul Simshauser, CEO said " As stated previously we have been very
pleased with the strong support we have received from a wide range of
banks which in the current difficult credit environment is a strong
endorsement of the quality of the BBP assets.

“We are all looking forward to the time when the focus will move away
from our financing requirements to the strong industry dynamics in which
BBP’s assets operate and the related long term growth prospects for BBP
securityholders.”


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## roland (22 May 2008)

Just after that announcement I sent them a rudish email, saying how badly worded it was. Obviously I wasn't the only one to notice.

This came out just on close:

22 May 2008
*CLARIFICATION RE BBP DEBT REFINANCING UPDATE*
Babcock & Brown Power (ASX:BBP) wishes to clarify an earlier statement
made to ASX today on the BBP debt refinancing. BBP advises that the
current total capital commitments are approximately $3.4 billion only; this
amount includes corporate debt facilities of $3.1 billion. The close of the
core corporate debt is due to close in early June 2008 as announced
earlier today. BBP reiterates that it is considering a range of options to
fund the additional capital requirements.


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## reece55 (22 May 2008)

roland said:


> BBP zapped again!
> 
> I nervously grabbed some more at $1.765
> 
> and now .... we have some news coming - please be gentle




Another fairly bad move down again!!!!!

As I said previously, until they refinance the market is going to be jittery. I'm still sidelines until such time as the clarification comes through

They would have been better to have said nothing than the rubbish they put in front of us today!! Oh well, new low reached of 1.39....

Cheers


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## roland (22 May 2008)

I'm still fuming about this:



> *In addition to the $3.1 billion of corporate debt*
> facilities, BBP’s current capital commitments are approximately $3.4 billion
> which includes additional capital expenditure associated with a number of
> assets




Can you believe that this announcement quotes their debt at $6.5 billion! Easy enough to clarify the announcement, after the market closes, in the meantime I lose $17,000

What a bunch of unprofessional morons


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## SenTineL (22 May 2008)

interesting time ahead tomorrow.

this stock has done the opposite of my original Alinta Gas Shares.

rubish


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## Overreaction? (22 May 2008)

Geez BBP sold off way to much today in my opinion over potential capital raising - reuters is reporting that Babcock parent are going to fund the shortfall so it shouldn't be a problem. At the end of the day it is an annuity like a bond  >20% sell off is an overreaction


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## roland (23 May 2008)

Excert from Comsec's Research Insight 22/5/2008

*Analysis*
2010 electricity futures prices now reflect a carbon premium. Prices for 4Q 2010 futures for the most liquid SFE markets (Victoria and NSW) are showing an implicit carbon price of around $10 - $15/ MWh (~$17-$25/CO2e) despite the uncertainty surrounding the design of the ETS, emission targets, permit allocation rules etc. 

Of the ASX-listed utilities, Babcock & Brown Power (BBP) generation portfolio has the most to lose, particularly the Playford power station in SA if the Government decides not to allocate free permits to coal-fired power stations.

*BBP(2): BUY/OUT PERFORM Valuation: $3.47*

(2) 2 Members of the Commonwealth Group have received fees within the previous 2 years from Transfield Services Limited, Wesfarmers Limited, *Babcock & Brown Power *and Mariner Financial Limited


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## roland (23 May 2008)

May 23rd - The Australian

*Babcock shares battered on fears of $300m shortfall in capital*

Adele Ferguson | May 23, 2008 
BABCOCK & Brown and its satellite Babcock & Brown Power were slaughtered on the market yesterday on fears that the power offshoot is facing a $300 million capital shortfall and will be forced to go to the market with a deeply discounted rights issue to fund capital commitments due in the next month.

Babcock & Brown Power dived 20 per cent, to $1.49, and Babcock & Brown fell almost 8 per cent, to $13.28, on speculation from debt markets that banks had cut the loan sought by BBP from $3.1 billion to $2.7 billion and the remaining $400 million would be funded by Babcock & Brown. 

Both companies were unavailable for comment, heightening concerns about the lack of transparency, accountability and opacity of the financial accounts. 

In a statement released yesterday, BBP said it expected to secure funding for a debt refinancing package by early next month. It has been trying to secure a deal since last year. 

It said it was trying to finalise a $3.1 billion debt refinancing package but it had capital commitments of $3.4 billion, suggesting a $300 million shortfall. 

These capital commitments are believed to be due within the next month, which would make 

it difficult to sell assets in time to pay the bills. Possible assets BBP could sell include the Alinta retail business, which is worth about $1 billion. 

But if it needs the money quickly, BBP would be forced to go to shareholders and make a rights issue at a deep discount to the share price. 

According to a note written by Goldman Sachs JBWere yesterday, in terms of an equity raising at less than $1.50, the yield on the new securities would be more than 17 per cent using the current 2008 dividend per share of 26.1c. 

"This is not sustainable. As such, BBP either needs to sell assets or stop paying distributions," Goldman said. 

The additional capital expenditure required by BBP is associated with assets including the Tamar Valley gas-fired plant, the Newman expansion and buying minority interests in Braemar and Uranquinty. 

The news sent the market into a frenzy because the company did not hold an investor conference to explain what it all meant for Babcock & Brown or Babcock & Brown Power. Its chief executive Paul Simshauser was also unavailable for comment. 

In a statement, the company said there were a number of options available to fund the additional capital commitments, including debt, asset sales, asset joint ventures or various forms of equity. 

More than $2 billion of the debt refinancing stems from its acquisition of Alinta's power generation and power generation and retail energy assets. 

The bankers are believed to include ANZ, Suncorp, Commonwealth, BNP Paribas and NAB. 

In a note to clients yesterday, Goldman Sachs JBWere said: "This is disappointing and a surprise." 

Any party wanting to bid for BBP would have to resolve the management agreements with Babcock & Brown. The management fee is 1 per cent of market capitalisation or $11 million. 

One fund manager said the fact that Babcock & Brown has bailed them out to the tune of $400 million, yet they still need money, went to the heart of the problems with infrastructure funds. 

"They have lost a lot of credibility the way they handled this today," he said.


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## SenTineL (23 May 2008)

Down another 20% today, should have listened to my own advice.

I hate turning a paper loss into a real one, but this is another lesson, should have minimalised my losses much much earlier. 

Actually reading Nick Radges book now and it's such an obvious thing after it's pointed out - you don't have to always be right, accept the wrongs and minimilise losses. I'm in too deep now but that's what happens....


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## prana (23 May 2008)

I was on the call today. 

The reporter from SMH caned the CEO basically asking him to step down, right on Phil's tail. This blowout of additional $275M was well uncalled for - yeah not very good string of events. Still, management was not entirely clear on whether to cut distributions or sell assets either way, but says their finding their way. it does sound like their biased towards selling of AlintaAGL assets. Given August as the financial raising target....


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## the barry (23 May 2008)

SenTineL said:


> Down another 20% today, should have listened to my own advice.
> 
> I hate turning a paper loss into a real one, but this is another lesson, should have minimalised my losses much much earlier.
> 
> Actually reading Nick Radges book now and it's such an obvious thing after it's pointed out - you don't have to always be right, accept the wrongs and minimilise losses. I'm in too deep now but that's what happens....




Yeah mate, but what happens if it drops another 20 percent come monday. Never in to deep to cut your losses. No point throwing good money after bad. I only have a small holding so am not to fussed to see where it pans out, but things look funky at best.


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## vishalt (23 May 2008)

I suppose "wow" at the way this was handled by BBP. 

I feel sorry for the unit holders. How much gearing does BBP have exactly? I know SP Ausnet has 58%, and thats gone up from 56% last year lol and I don't like that much gearing.


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## Miner (25 May 2008)

With expected yield pattern should BBP offer an opportunity to buy ? Almost 59% drop down in three days. With DJ fall on Friday probably market will whip shares like BBP all the more on Monday ?  Any comments from people who have done good research on BBP please  :

Reproduced some of the research reports from Bell Potter Security on 23 May 08. Should we rely on their BUY reiteration or the higher risk equity proposition ? They have maintained the BUY recommendation based on what ? Ego or not to admit its fault of a poor understanding the trend from BBP ?

Any way with the copy right rests on Bell Potter Security the extract of their research is as follows :
*D efensive assets, higher-risk equity* *Price target *$1.35 (previously $1.46); Buy rating; higher-risk exposure[/U]We have completed a major review of BBI following 18 months of acquisition
activity. Despite a diversified portfolio of defensive and largely predictable assets,complex structuring and a significant debt portfolio mean that we now regard BBI  (that is, as an ‘equity’) as a higher-risk exposure

*Positive catalysts offset by risks; de-merger now may make sense**BBI is currently trading on an FY10E FCF yield of 8.7%*

*Valuation: $1.57 (spot DCF); price target $1.35 (12-month DCF less 20%)*


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## SenTineL (26 May 2008)

I'd say it's a good buy at the moment.

But for me I'm out of there. Clawed back 10% today - sold at the high for the day. I was looking at offloading some of my holdings so got rid of the underachievers, this was one of them. 

How are you going Roland, still trading this one?


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## roland (26 May 2008)

SenTineL said:


> I'd say it's a good buy at the moment.
> 
> But for me I'm out of there. Clawed back 10% today - sold at the high for the day. I was looking at offloading some of my holdings so got rid of the underachievers, this was one of them.
> 
> How are you going Roland, still trading this one?




Hey SenTineL - hope you didn't suffer too much on this one. As for me, I dumped a stack at $1.49 and $1.25, bought them back at $1.13 and sold today at $1.22 (missed the high).

That's softened the blow a little, still in too deep to take a mega hit. I'll be trading my way out. If they hold the dividend, I'll be OK


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## roland (30 May 2008)

From Yesterday's Comsec Research

*Babcock and Brown Power: It’s going to be tough*
Last traded: $1.27 Sector: Utilities Market cap: $922m
*REDUCE / UNDER PERFORM Valuation: $1.96*
Summary of previous report dated 26/05/08

What’s new?
Babcock & Brown Power (BBP) has found itself in a vulnerable position due to a combination of a high priced acquisition (Alinta), challenging credit markets, and commitments made to fund and build power stations.

BBP must negotiate and execute on a number of initiatives in sequential order to shore up its financial position by August:

Refinancing worth $2.7b (closure expected within next few weeks).
  Corporate debt facility worth $0.36b (closure expected August 2008
  Project finance facility for Tamar Valley (completion expected August).
  A shortfall of $275m must be funded by August 2008.

*Sale of Ecogen assets preferable*
While BBP hasn’t completely ruled out an equity raising to fund the $275m, the sale of assets looks more likely and ultimately is preferable.
BBP can easily secure the shortfall by selling one of the two Ecogen power stations with the added benefit that net operating cash flows will not be materially affected.

It is quite possible that BBP will successfully secure the necessary funds (BNB said it will act as “banker of last resort” for the $0.36b if necessary).
But when the board/management use phrases like the “ground is moving underneath us”, and given the number of initiatives that need to be executed over short period of time, there are clearly significant risks.

So while BBP looks extremely cheap at these prices, we remain cautious and retain the REDUCE / UNDER PERFORM recommendation.

Our valuation of $1.96 per security assumes a capital raising of $300m at $1.20 per security and includes a 100bps premium to the WACC to reflect the uncertainty associated with BBP’s capital structure.


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## SenTineL (12 June 2008)

holy smokes! down 32% at the moment.

am i glad i got the hell out of there when i did, it's getting smashed after today's announcement
good call by   the barry, it went much worse than 20%


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## Smurf1976 (12 June 2008)

roland said:


> BBP must negotiate and execute on a number of initiatives in sequential order to shore up its financial position by August:
> 
> Refinancing worth $2.7b (closure expected within next few weeks).
> Corporate debt facility worth $0.36b (closure expected August 2008
> ...



I'm not sure what's meant by "completion expected August". There's NO chance that the plant will be up and running by then - sometime around March 2009 seems more likely. I assume you mean the financing is completed by then?

Well OK, there are 3 existing gas turbines there (open cycle) plus another open cycle one being built (running by December if they're lucky). But the main baseload combined cycle unit isn't due until March 2009.

Capacity of the existing units - 105MW in total (35MW each) when Hydro Tas ran them, BBP thinks they'll get them up to 120MW (probably realistic). 

In recent times though they've only run one unit at half capacity (ie 20MW) and even then they've missed most of the profitable spot price opportunites for that little bit of production. 

The new open cycle unit - about 60MW.

The new combined cycle unit - 203MW nominal.

They have a long term contract for baseload output from the combined cycle plant. The open cycle units are for trading in the spot market and covering their position when the combined cycle unit is out for maintenance. 

Fuel for the combined cycle unit - gas only. They have a 15 year contract but I can't remember who it is with.

Fuel for the open cycle units - gas with diesel backup.


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## roland (12 June 2008)

Well .... what a nightmare for me this has been. I was trying to hold onto these to at least recoup something from the dividends.

What an absolutely stupid move that was. I dumped my 44,000 units today at .... yes, you guessed it - the all time low for the day. A 63% loss on a holding of 44,000 units adds up to an embarrassing loss.

So thank you BBP, I am close to being ruined.


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## SenTineL (13 June 2008)

you have my sympathies roland

What a horrible miss-management by BBP
dunno what else to say.........


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## Miner (15 June 2008)

At the close of session BBP shares were at 71 cents after lowered to 54 cents 

Code  Last  % Chg  Bid  Offer  Open  High  Low  Vol  
BBP 0.710 -21.11% 0.705 0.720 0.750 0.780 0.540 44,092,568 

After close of business on 12 June Bell Potter recommended BBP as BUY. the closing price of BBP was 86 to 90 cents
If you would have bought BBP share listening to BBP recommendation then your loss would have been 20%.

When ASIC will discipline such incompetent brokers and their recommendations


Bell Potter recommended BBP with 12m price target A$1.24/US$1.18
Prior recommendation was :A$1.95/US$1.86
Price A$0.90/US$0.86 as on 12 June 08


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## DionM (15 June 2008)

I'm still hanging in with BBP.

I initially got in at 2.72.  

Topped up at 90c Thursday.  



Another stock for the bottom drawer.  Getting pretty crowded in there though ... it joins ZFX, CNP, MAP, SUN, IAG to name just a few ... 

Roland - sorry to hear it mate ... terrible.


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## s3081402 (15 June 2008)

Miner said:


> At the close of session BBP shares were at 71 cents after lowered to 54 cents
> 
> Code  Last  % Chg  Bid  Offer  Open  High  Low  Vol
> BBP 0.710 -21.11% 0.705 0.720 0.750 0.780 0.540 44,092,568
> ...




I know how you feel. But at the end of the day you don't decide to buy a stock based on broker report. The choice is yours to make.


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## $$Punt$$ (15 June 2008)

s3081402 said:


> I know how you feel. But at the end of the day you don't decide to buy a stock based on broker report. The choice is yours to make.





Dow Jones went up 1.3% on friday. Let's hope price will rally on monday as bargain hunters swoop in on BBP. I don't think it will drop much further and sooner than later, the SP will have to move up as it had been heading south continously for a while now. Get it when its cheap. Its a gamble.


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## roland (15 June 2008)

$$Punt$$ said:


> Dow Jones went up 1.3% on friday. Let's hope price will rally on monday as bargain hunters swoop in on BBP. I don't think it will drop much further and sooner than later, the SP will have to move up as it had been heading south continously for a while now. Get it when its cheap. Its a gamble.




Yep, a gamble would be a good term for any further "investment" in BBP. Anymore bad news and it will get smashed again.

What if BNB are not able to refinance the outstanding shortfall - smashed
What if the repairs to the gas pipeline gets delayed - smashed
What if there are problems with the other power stations - smashed
What if, the most likely downgrade, on the dividend yield is more than expected - smashed


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## Miner (15 June 2008)

roland said:


> Yep, a gamble would be a good term for any further "investment" in BBP. Anymore bad news and it will get smashed again.
> 
> What if BNB are not able to refinance the outstanding shortfall - smashed
> What if the repairs to the gas pipeline gets delayed - smashed
> ...




Hi Roland et al

Interesting thread of what if scenario

I am adding to your list 


What if auditors find out BBP put a real shoddy accounting practice by revaluating its assets and then leveraging it (Enron saga) 
What if there is an opportune buyer and makes a takeover deal without or part of the liability
of BBP ?

Cheers


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## roland (16 June 2008)

> 16 June 2008
> BBP SUCCESSFULLY REACHES FINANCIAL CLOSE ON $2.7
> BILLION REFINANCING
> Babcock & Brown Power (ASX:BBP) is pleased to announce that it today
> ...




Well, what an absolute pathetic announcement, what has Simshauser said here that is not already known? 

Where is the update on the gas explosion, and the numbers on impact to earnings?

What about the outstanding $360M Paul?

No one is going to buy an asset that doesn't produce income, so we will have to sell something that has potential to improve our non existant bottom line, which will put BBP deeper in the poo - all bad in my books.

Oh!, mother BNB will pull us through - if they are still around in a couple of months.

Well, if BNB gain more of BBP through outstanding debt, then BBP share holders could get maybe 10 cents in the dollar when BNB have to start selling off assets ??????


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## Overreaction? (16 June 2008)

Yea I aggree it does look cheaper now then before. Glad they finally announced they have the funding from the banks in their hot hands and B&B parent has given them another ~$A197m to fund any shortfall.

I wonder why they announced it after market. No one can get into it before the open tomorrow.

Thoughts?


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## Overreaction? (16 June 2008)

Facts of the announcement today:

1) Reached final financial close and settlement of $2.7 billion debt refinancing facility. 

2) BBP and UBS, the adviser on the asset sale programme, have received a number of indicative bids, the total value of which, is greater than the amounts outstanding on the BBPH corporate facility.

3) Babcock & Brown (ASX:BNB) has advanced $190 million on market based terms to BBP to provide short term funding towards BBP’s previously announced funding requirements as disclosed to ASX on 23 May 2008.

The gas explosion was not material to earnings according to BBP and if the banks will still lend them $2.7bn I would tend to aggree with them.


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## roland (19 June 2008)

ha, ha - I wonder why BBP left it to market close before announcing "No Distribution"

Worse than I thought - I knew it would be less than expected - but none!



> *BBP DECIDES TO NOT MAKE A 2H08 DISTRIBUTION AS PART OF A
> CAPITAL MANAGEMENT PLAN TO STRENGTHEN BALANCE SHEET*
> Babcock & Brown Power (ASX:BBP) has decided that it would be prudent
> to not make a distribution for the six month period ending 30 June 2008
> ...


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## stock_dexter (19 June 2008)

Although it's unfortunate that they announced zero distributions for the period, as a relative value verus the stock itself I'd rather maintain the share's capital value (and going concern status!) than get a few bucks now. Hopefully the market sees this as a prudent step in navigating some pretty treacherous waters.

I disclose holdings in BBP


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## DionM (19 June 2008)

Not impressed, to say the least.  If their cashflow is "as normal" why the cut to distributions.

Into the very full bottom drawer BBP goes.


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## stock_dexter (19 June 2008)

Retain cash to reduce debt...I thought it was pretty simple.

I think the market reacted more to the hint that Apache is going to impact earnings moving forward more than the "immaterial" amount they originally advised.


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## roland (19 June 2008)

stock_dexter said:


> Retain cash to reduce debt...I thought it was pretty simple.
> 
> I think the market reacted more to the hint that Apache is going to impact earnings moving forward more than the "immaterial" amount they originally advised.




Yes, it was pretty simple and the only move they could have taken.

I disagree that the distribution was "immaterial", near on 10% tax deferred couldn't be called immaterial. In fact, up until I gave up, it was the only thing keeping me with BBP.

So far I have 2 out of 4 predictions correct, only 2 to go:



> Yep, a gamble would be a good term for any further "investment" in BBP. Anymore bad news and it will get smashed again.
> 
> What if BNB are not able to refinance the outstanding shortfall - smashed
> What if the repairs to the gas pipeline gets delayed - smashed
> ...





Please excuse me for being bitter, but this one cost me over $60,000. I do, however, wish any one still holding the best of luck


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## DionM (20 June 2008)

stock_dexter said:


> Retain cash to reduce debt...I thought it was pretty simple.
> 
> I think the market reacted more to the hint that Apache is going to impact earnings moving forward more than the "immaterial" amount they originally advised.




Was it a hint about that, or was it their way of making up a shortfall in funds by not giving a distribution?  They haven't really said.

Still, I have learnt a very valuable less lately - dividends are never guaranteed (yes, I know, there never was a guarantee, but you know what I mean).

I used to have respect for the CEO.  Maybe he should have stayed as  power station energy trader (which he was good at) than trying to run a big company ...


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## stock_dexter (4 July 2008)

Today's announcement...

BBP SELLS URANQUINTY POWER STATION FOR $700 MILLION
* BBP has sold its 100% interest in the Uranquinty Power Station to Origin for an on-completion value of $700 million
* The gross sale proceeds represent a price of $1,094/kW – materially above the expected total project cost
* The net proceeds from the sale of $159 million will be deployed to pay down a portion of BBPHi debt

Good start


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## closeys (7 August 2008)

*BBP*

Wots going on with BBP ?
Will they get out of this hole ? 
Im a newie to this forum so any help you can give would be much appreciated


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## bryaneasy (8 August 2008)

I guess we just don't know - I honestly beleive this stock will come good, however it will come good a slow pace - it just has to survive this rough ride at the moment.  It is anyone's gamble, one which I have taken on .


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## roland (18 August 2008)

BBP smashed again - not like it wasn't on the cards. Also noted that their assets are not getting full book value on asset dumping. Sort of like a rock and a hard place.

How low can it go - dead cat bounce?


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## DionM (18 August 2008)

For better or worse I just bought more at 30c.  

Stupid or not ... I don't know.

Ironically I just doubled my holding ...

I still have faith in this type of asset ... I do believe much of the downward spiral is due to BNBs woes and media coverage.  

Ah well, I'll just work more overtime to service the loan ...


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## bryaneasy (18 August 2008)

Yeah to make things worse i had like 11,000 shares in this stock (which is ok it the most I would like to be exposed in any one stock), and then on Friday last week I found out that Westpac had put through an order for an additional 20,000 shares (I was previewing live market rates and clicked back on my browswer thats all I ever did)!! rediculous as I never clicked submit order button for this transaction and now their broking devision is giving me the complete run-around, but yeah I don't know what to do there.  

Really down about this one - if it ends up me being liable, which is probably what will happen knowing these companies, what are the options for this stock, I did read up something about this share privatising possibly, in that event what happens to the stocks you own??

Kind Regards,
-Bryan


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## Smurf1976 (18 August 2008)

roland said:


> BBP smashed again - not like it wasn't on the cards. Also noted that their assets are not getting full book value on asset dumping.



Tamar power station (Tasmania).

Hydro (100% state govt owned) sold the site with old generating plant for $30 million and BBP then spent $220 million building new generating plant there which is not completed (it can't run at all at present). It will cost about $140 million to complete.

Now it's being bought back for $100 million. That's the new plant ($220 million spent so far) plus the old machines bought back as well. A rather nice deal from the buyer's perspective.


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## DionM (19 August 2008)

DionM said:


> For better or worse I just bought more at 30c.
> 
> Stupid or not ... I don't know.




Yep, it was stupid.  I knew it.  Falling knives ... when the hell will I ever learn!

I think all I can do now is sit and wait and see if there is a buyout or a carve up of assets ...


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## jayinoz (20 August 2008)

DionM said:


> Yep, it was stupid.  I knew it.  Falling knives ... when the hell will I ever learn!
> 
> I think all I can do now is sit and wait and see if there is a buyout or a carve up of assets ...




U not the only one to be cut by the falling knife. I tried to grab the knife at 40c (Day B4) if that makes u feel any better.

If there is an immediate carve up of Assets we may get something in the 20s. Yet they will drag it on till a slow death I am sure. 

Might as well place everything I have associated to B&B in the very bottom draw. Along with Centro & some failed miners. No joy this year.


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## asx256 (21 August 2008)

there are rumors of a take over bid from org, and they are offering in range of $0.65-$0.75 for all assets.
current market cap is 116,212,620 @ $0.16.
@ 0.70 it will give BBP market cap of 500 million. 
imo this is best situation for org at the moment (considering BG's offer)

good for org shares holders but no so good for share holders who bought BBP at higher prices.


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## AjD (22 August 2008)

What get's me with this is that Analysts had a target price on this thing of about $2 as late as June. The share price sh!ts itself and all of a sudden target prices have gone through the floor. Aside from an asset sale and the fact that they had to impair some goodwill because they paid too much for the bloody thing (which everyone knew anyway) the business is unchanged.

Where is the responsibility of these guys to actually make a decent recommendation, rather than just change their opinions after the fact...   F%$king useless

Well, thats my rant for the day...


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## prana (22 August 2008)

they are guides made only from what they know at the time. It's your money, they didnt make you buy it with a gun to your head - certainly not to mine when I bought into it...  I've gotta take my own  responsibility for my own actions. I'm not happy about it but as wise men says, "don't ask the barber if you need a haircut". Many of us, myself included made huge paper losses but dats what they are, in the sentiments can transfer itself directly into fundamentals, and that is something we've observed more times than not recently.   This is a bear market ... you disappoint, you get a wallop or 10.

Live and learn, move on. It's part of the lives we live.


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## RodH (7 January 2009)

BBP has been doing ok of late, how much further do we think it'll rise? its getting back up towards august levels, up from the dark days of babcock and brown in november


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## Malindidzumu (22 March 2009)

Does anyone out there still hold units in BBP? If so I'd be interested to hear what you think the prospects for the company going forward are? Management seem to be confident not only of the survival of BBP, but the recovery and growth of the company in the future given expected higher market prices and the subsequent significant increase in revenue beyond 2010. What does everyone else think? Does anyone share the view of BBP's management?


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## n5032245 (25 March 2009)

i still hold bbp shares. from 23 cents! not happy. 

i can't find any real research on them from my brokers UBS and Citi, but Citi still are hopefull on BBW, and the likelyhood of them getting back to a position that they were in before the GFC started. could only be good news for BBP. 

having noted that. if BBP get back to 23 cents, i will be selling. way too much risk on that book!


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## DionM (25 March 2009)

n5032245 said:


> i still hold bbp shares. from 23 cents! not happy.
> 
> i can't find any real research on them from my brokers UBS and Citi, but Citi still are hopefull on BBW, and the likelyhood of them getting back to a position that they were in before the GFC started. could only be good news for BBP.
> 
> having noted that. if BBP get back to 23 cents, i will be selling. way too much risk on that book!




LOL.  I hold from $2.70ish.

You got nothing on me 

Why do I still have it?  Not worth selling for lunch money.


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## Malindidzumu (26 March 2009)

So there is some life out there for BBP, at least two other people out there who still check this thread. My cost base for the stock is 11c, so I guess I am better off than you guys with cost bases of 23c and $2.70 respectively. 

The only research you can get on BBP is the sort that costs in the form of broker reports and analyst reports. I gather that just about everyone would sell their entire BBP holding at cost base if it ever reaches such a price in the future. I have confidence that it will at least reach 11c and maybe even 23c in the near term, but $2.70 is a long-term proposition.

Brokers and analysts seem to be of the opinion that BBP will fail to get an investment grade credit rating, and will breach loan covenants which will trigger a review event which they then think will lead the banking syndicate to call in the loans leaving nothing for unitholders after all is said and done. 

Yet it remains to be seen whether BBP will be taken over and effectively rescued by a white knight in shining armour which could reduce BBP's debt and provide it with a development pipeline which it needs for future growth. At this stage it seems like most people, brokers and analysts included, think BBP will not get any attractive offers yet that seems to go against the grain of BBP's high-quality and highly sought after assets. 

I fully expect BBP to be make it through the GFC under new management following a takeover in the near future. I cannot imagine for one second that the bigger players out there are not eyeing these assets and that they won't try to outbid each other. I fully expect that they are and that they will do so for what is a once in a lifetime opportunity for them. Less certain is the behaviour of the banks re: review events and even the federal government should Arcapita or another overseas-based buyer emerge with everything going on with foreign investment in Australian companies of strategic importance right now.

Depending on how many units you own in BBP there is significant risk-reward here. If BBP do survive, recover and grow, then investments in this company bought at such cheap prices could be worth a lot of money in the future both in terms of capital gain and income from future distributions whilst $2.70 is definitely on the cards long-term if you can hold and forget about the stock in the short and medium terms. We just need someone to come and pick them up in an attractive takeover bid, but it seems like I am the only one out there who even thinks this is a possibility yet alone a likely outcome.


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## fuzzie (28 March 2009)

By the look of the latest announcements Deutsche Bank are churning shares and the price has jumped on increasing volume.


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## SUNYA2006 (29 April 2009)

I do believe BBP will reach beyond 10c in next week and have a good prospect in a long term. May 0.5 dollar will not be a dream .Let us pray together.


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## Joe Blow (29 April 2009)

SUNYA2006 said:


> I do believe BBP will reach beyond 10c in next week and have a good prospect in a long term. May 0.5 dollar will not be a dream .Let us pray together.




I pray fervently that you stop ramping and that you take on board your recent infraction for ramping, particularly the part where I reminded you that "all price targets must be accompanied by some supporting analysis."


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## ricee007 (7 May 2009)

Joe Blow said:


> I pray fervently that you stop ramping and that you take on board your recent infraction for ramping, particularly the part where I reminded you that "all price targets must be accompanied by some supporting analysis."



*Clearly his comments should have been backed up....
*
You are CERTAINLY right in that regard.

*BUT* he called for 10c, in a week...
And, it's now 8 days later and it's 11c... and it opened at 10.5c (sorry, I CBF checking to see if it closed at 10c yesterday, 1 week after he said it, but with an open of 10.5c, i can't see it closing lower than 10c yesterday)


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## SUNYA2006 (9 May 2009)

Why did administration delete my comment? Sometimes investing in share market can not depend on calculation and analysis only ,most inportant factor is your interst and strong feeling. Next monday BBP will surpass 0.12-0.125 at beginning of trade, maybe we can see its reachment in 15c next week. See the curve of BBI, usually their price gap will be 0-1.5c approximately ,but I do believe BBP has a better prospective than BBI ultimately.


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## banska bystrica (9 May 2009)

SUNYA2006 said:


> Why did administration delete my comment? Sometimes investing in share market can not depend on calculation and analysis only ,most inportant factor is your interst and strong feeling. Next monday BBP will surpass 0.12-0.125 at beginning of trade, maybe we can see its reachment in 15c next week. See the curve of BBI, usually their price gap will be 0-1.5c approximately ,but I do believe BBP has a better prospective than BBI ultimately.




I also hold BBP but I do not agree with your last comment. BBP is restricted to one asset class in one country whereas BBI is diversified across different asset classes in different geographic locations. BBI's assets are far more defensive.
I believe BBP is very undervalued but BBI has far more upside long term.


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## SUNYA2006 (9 May 2009)

banska bystrica said:


> I also hold BBP but I do not agree with your last comment. BBP is restricted to one asset class in one country whereas BBI is diversified across different asset classes in different geographic locations. BBI's assets are far more defensive.
> I believe BBP is very undervalued but BBI has far more upside long term.




Power plant usually has a stable income origination and a good improvement prospect especially in energy shortage market. If BBP solve it debt problem or is purchased by foreign investor successfully, it will resore its real value quickly. Please see historic price of BBP in comparison with BBI, you can make a real conclusion.


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## Tysonboss1 (9 May 2009)

SUNYA2006 said:


> Power plant usually has a stable income origination and a good improvement prospect especially in energy shortage market. If BBP solve it debt problem or is purchased by foreign investor successfully, it will resore its real value quickly. Please see historic price of BBP in comparison with BBI, you can make a real conclusion.




Mate,

When you rant with random future price quotes you do sound like a ramping looney,

lets talk the facts. Pros, Cons, strengths, weaknesses etc etc.


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## Struzball (13 May 2009)

Trading halt, I hope it's bad because I just sold literally 25 minutes before it went into trading halt..

Does anybody have any idea what it might be about?


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## banska bystrica (13 May 2009)

Struzball said:


> Trading halt, I hope it's bad because I just sold literally 25 minutes before it went into trading halt..
> 
> Does anybody have any idea what it might be about?




A couple of Brisbane brokers have heard that it's a takeover bid. At what price is anyone's guess. I only hold a very small parcel.  We will know more by Friday.


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## investorpaul (13 May 2009)

I have not looked at or followed BBP before seeing as it is in a trading halt for what could be a take over or some other positive announcement.

Has BBP suffered because of its debt levels and link to the B&B group? if yes how would its position compare to BBI? eg more/less debt, better/worse assets


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## prawn_86 (13 May 2009)

I have a friend who works for an insolvency firm, and BBP asked them to do a report as to what this firm would do if BBP went into liquidation. That report was completed about a month ago and he has not heard anything since. 

Obviously it was only a prelim report, but it could be a possible warning sign.


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## max421 (13 May 2009)

I wish Banksa information is correct and hopefully its a take over bid.
Even at  20 cents would be cheap. If it was a takeover bid surely info would have leaked and BBP would be going north rather south before trading halt.
On the contrary Iam wont be surprised if the Banks have pulled the pin like BNB.
With BBI coming with series of bad news this week I hope BBP comes with a good one for a change.


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## banska bystrica (13 May 2009)

The wording BBP used in that announcement did not read well. I am hoping that the takeover rumour has some credence but after reading that announcement I am now expecting bad news. I hope I am wrong because bad news from BBP will impact BBI. Sentiment will be rock bottom.
I have a small holding in BBP and a much larger holding in BBI/BEPPA.


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## investorpaul (13 May 2009)

I just read BBPs request for the trading halt. 

It does not sound positive at all.

Hopefully its not too bad and/or has already been priced in to a large extent.


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## prawn_86 (13 May 2009)

banska bystrica said:


> The wording BBP used in that announcement did not read well. I am hoping that the takeover rumour has some credence but after reading that announcement I am now expecting bad news. I hope I am wrong because bad news from BBP will impact BBI. Sentiment will be rock bottom.
> I have a small holding in BBP and a much larger holding in BBI/BEPPA.






investorpaul said:


> I just read BBPs request for the trading halt.
> 
> It does not sound positive at all.
> 
> Hopefully its not too bad and/or has already been priced in to a large extent.




As i have said, i know insolvency firms were preparing reports as to what actions they would take. Of course that doesnt mean they will fold, but its probably not a good sign...


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## Tysonboss1 (13 May 2009)

banska bystrica said:


> The wording BBP used in that announcement did not read well. I am hoping that the takeover rumour has some credence but after reading that announcement I am now expecting bad news. I hope I am wrong because bad news from BBP will impact BBI. Sentiment will be rock bottom.
> I have a small holding in BBP and a much larger holding in BBI/BEPPA.




I hope it's good news too. I don't own any BBP but my father owns a few that he paid 26c and my brother in law has some at 11c.

By the wording of the annoucement it does sound like it could go either way.


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## fureien (13 May 2009)

ok i just read the announcement

its most likely bad news



> The reason for the trading halt is that BBP is currently unable to make an immediate
> announcement pending the finalisation of a number of matters that are likely to have a
> material impact on BBP, including a revised outlook for BBP’s business.




the first line about being unable to make an immediate announcement....well whats the hurry.... nobody was rushing them right? so is there a need to have a trading halt. what they probably mean is, our sp is probably gunna get an extra flogging from insiders and set the mark for major flogging when the news comes out, so we're gunna do what ALL did and put a trading halt to minimise shorting

"a number of matters", look up matters in the thesaurus, coincides with "issues" etc. highly negative

"revised outlook for bbp's business" as opposed to "improved outlook for BBP's business" if it were positive news. Directors would usually be eagre to announce or subconciously hint at good news.

this announcement is wrapped in negativity.

im preparing for the worst lol
i dont hold bbp, but this is gunna affect bbi
the only positive thing i can see from all this is that i may be able to lower my average purchase price, lol


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## investorpaul (13 May 2009)

fureien said:


> im preparing for the worst lol
> i dont hold bbp, but this is gunna affect bbi
> the only positive thing i can see from all this is that i may be able to lower my average purchase price, lol




No point throwing good money after bad if it hits the fan, we will just have to accept it unfortunately


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## fuzzie (13 May 2009)

investorpaul said:


> Has BBP suffered because of its debt levels and link to the B&B group? if yes how would its position compare to BBI? eg more/less debt, better/worse assets




I think BBP had lots of corporate loans from BNB. It could be the BNB receivers calling in their money. BBI doesn't have the same exposure owed to BNB.


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## max421 (13 May 2009)

*the reason for trading halt*

MELBOURNE, May 13 (Reuters Basis Point) - Babcock & Brown
Power Ltd (BBP.AX) (BBP) is in talks with its lenders to amend
the terms on a A$2.6 billion ($2 billion) project finance loan
to give it breathing space to sell assets, banking sources
said.

 The terms of the loan mean BBP needs to obtain a second
credit rating, from an agency such as Moody's or Standard &
Poor's, by June 3 or face a review event by its lenders, the
sources said. The loan is already rated BBB- by Fitch.

 The power investment company, whose shares are currently on
a trading halt, had no comment when contacted by Reuters Basis
Point. UBS, which is BBP's financial adviser on potential asset
sales, was not available to comment.

 "Under its current structure, and barring further asset
sales, BBP looks unlikely to get a second investment grade
rating by June," said Matthew Spence, infrastructure and
utilities analyst at Bank of America Merrill Lynch.

 One possible resolution being discussed is to include
mechanisms in the loan structure which would allow any free
cash generated from BBP's assets to be used to pay down the
principal loan, banking sources said.

 The sources cannot be identified due to the confidential
nature of the negotiations.

 Holders of the loan include ANZ, BNP Paribas, Commonwealth
Bank, Dexia Bank, National Australia Bank, Natixis, Societe
Generale, UniCredit and WestLB.

 BBP, which has seen its market value dive about 95 percent
in the past 12 months, has been looking to sell assets, or the
whole company, since October after receiving approaches.

 It said on April 28 that the sale process is continuing.

 Like its parent company Babcock & Brown (BNB.AX), BBP has
been punished by investors after the financial crisis saw
confidence its debt-funded investment model collapse .
 ($1=1.309 Australian Dollar)
 (Reporting by Sharon Klyne; Editing by James Thornhill)


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## max421 (14 May 2009)

So what to holders think will we hear bad or good news tomorrow or could the trading halt extended till monday


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## Tysonboss1 (14 May 2009)

max421 said:


> So what to holders think will we hear bad or good news tomorrow or could the trading halt extended till monday




Well if the above document is correct it doesn't seem like the annoucement will be overly bad.

Hopefully it's just some amendments to the structure of certain loans, Maybe a cash sweep facility similar to the one BBI's lenders have put in place.


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## investorpaul (15 May 2009)

What is the impact of the origin/BBP announcement?

Was it also the reason for the trading halt? or is there more to follow


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## Struzball (15 May 2009)

> Further to the announcement that BBP expects to release later today in connection with
> the conclusion of a transaction and a revised FY09 EBITDA guidance, BBP requests a
> voluntary suspension of trading. The reason for the suspension is that BBP is in the
> process of ongoing discussions with its banking syndicate in relation to ascertaining a full
> ...




I am very relieved I sold 25 minutes before the trading halt.. the news definately doesn't seem to be getting any better.


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## max421 (15 May 2009)

hope the Banks keep BBP going and dont do what they did to BNB. Lets see what material transaction are they gona announce later today. Since last year  I have been following BBP they never come up with good news. 

what happened to their east west portfolio offers. no talk about that at all just petty 100 million deal. what a joke.


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## max421 (15 May 2009)

Not bad announcement after all late in the afternoon looks like they will get the banks sort out the loans. Was expecting some power station sale though.


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## banska bystrica (15 May 2009)

Unfortunately, the business is not performing well enough to even cover interest costs. Poor management to have the power plants not working and unable to supply Sth Australia when the heatwave was on back in January. Huge question marks over the BBP management team. The revised normalised EBITDA figures don't even cover their interest costs on my numbers.
I'd say the banks will do a re-structuring here and jack up the interest rate ala BNB and basically stuff BBP securityholders.
It doesn't look good at all. If they re-list I'll be out. I fear they may never re-list. My small position looks dead in the water.


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## max421 (16 May 2009)

I think the same. Its in history books now. how to get peoples money sucked in BBP management is good in doing that. Fisrt announcing asset sales news in this quarter so investors can jump in and then revise EBITDA down. Banks called in. suspension now. I have lost money on this one it seems. lost on bnb, now bbp and the last one left now bbi. Iam just sick of Babcock name now. I hold Beppa, now Iam thinking to sell them aswell before BBI goes down aswell.


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## Smurf1976 (16 May 2009)

SUNYA2006 said:


> Power plant usually has a stable income origination and a good improvement prospect especially in energy shortage market.



That is only true assuming the _energy_ shortage is in fact an _electricity_ shortage.

On the other hand, if it's a shortage of gas, coal, oil or whatever else the power plant is using as its primary energy source (fuel) then the economic wheels fall off in a big way and it ends up a financial disaster.


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## ricee007 (17 May 2009)

max421 said:


> I think the same. Its in history books now. how to get peoples money sucked in BBP management is good in doing that. Fisrt announcing asset sales news in this quarter so investors can jump in and then revise EBITDA down. Banks called in. suspension now. I have lost money on this one it seems. lost on bnb, now bbp and the last one left now bbi. Iam just sick of Babcock name now. I hold Beppa, now Iam thinking to sell them aswell before BBI goes down aswell.



Consider what return you would get from your BEPPA if BBI went bust...

IMHO, BBI is a different kettle of fish to BBP (and BBP isn't necessarily dead!)


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## nulla nulla (17 May 2009)

Kinda ironic that it is the banks, who lent them money to buy the assets at inflated prices in the first instance, that are now trying to force the sale of those assets at huge losses to get all of their money back. 
The bank wins all arround: 
1. made money on the original financing deals; 
2. makes interest on the ongoing loan; 
3. makes more money at higher interest rates when the credit rating agencies downgrade bbp; and 
4. will make more money when they ultimately finance the party that buys the assets.

Gotta love those banks.


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## nathanblack (17 May 2009)

ricee007 said:


> Consider what return you would get from your BEPPA if BBI went bust...
> 
> IMHO, BBI is a different kettle of fish to BBP (and BBP isn't necessarily dead!)




The thing your forgetting about BEPPA is that in the case of administration, holders may indeed recieve some cash, depending on the discounted assets in a fire sale ranging from $0.00-$1.

BUT how long will holders have to wait to see that money? winding up can take years, and they will no longer be a listed entity, so selling out wont be an option.

BBP and BBI are differnt and i have faith, but for those that dont, selling may be more appropriate than waiting years for a return of equity.


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## benwex (4 June 2009)

BBP signs an agreement for 105MWh to BHP's Olympic Dam project

Key highlights of the retail contract include:
· Two year term – the contract is for two years commencing on 1 July 2009.
· 105MW average load – the average estimated load is 105MW.
· The contract is priced in line with BBP’s forward outlook – pricing is in
line with BBP’s expectations for SA in FY10 and FY11.
· Strong counterparty – Standard & Poor’s credit rating for the counterparty is
A+ with a stable outlook.
· REC pass through – the cost of RECs is passed on to the counterparty at an
agreed price under the contract.
· CPRS risk factored in – expiry of the contract currently coincides with the
proposed commencement of the CPRS scheme.

Surely this is a very positive announcement and gives me confidence that BBP will be around for the future. BHP would not enter into such an agreement where the counterparty is unable to provide such a transaction...


Adding to this Guinness Peat a local fund has been accummulating a substantial holding in recent days.

I have bought in today, anyone else??

Benwex


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## fuzzie (4 June 2009)

I sold yesterday while there are still eager buyers. I believe BBP is now in breach of a debt covenant to the banks. It looks like a big gamble to me.

The generators will still be around in a few years time, but maybe owned by somebody other than BBP.


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## Steven12 (30 June 2009)

you guys realize that even if you buy BBP shares, you are protected by BBP's equity (book value), BBP is trading currently at about 6% of their book value.


I am trying to say there is a margin  of safety here


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## Paragon1 (21 July 2009)

This may have been answered previously but I see Guinness Peat Group Plc have a large holding of BBP stock. They are apparantly known for their activism and getting involved in restructurings and turnaround situations. Anybody have an idea why they're in there? What value do they see?


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## Steven12 (27 July 2009)

This is fron GPG website:

"GPG makes selective investments, predominantly in public companies, for the purpose of enhancing and realising value by means of appropriate levels of shareholder influence and control. This could involve the restructuring of the financing or management of the companies in which GPG invests. GPG’s role may also encompass initiating and facilitating mergers within the relevant industry to achieve constructive rationalisation. In general, this active involvement is outside the scope of most institutional investors.

No equity investment is made without exhaustive research and unless it is possible to form a robust view of a stock’s medium-term prospects. GPG refrains from investing in businesses which it does not understand or those it regards as speculative. This has led it to invest almost exclusively in established companies with a long track record."




> Anybody have an idea why they're in there? What value do they see?




To answer your question, I think GPG is in the business of buying equity into very under-valued companies, and through active participation of management of the company to realize the company value.

I think the reason they bought 10% stake is that they consider BBP a very undervalue company trading at 6% of their book value. I believe the managment have conducted a through study on BBP's books before buying, and obviously they believe that company will survive this GFC and return to some form of profitability, Value investing, I think thats the term.



In terms of BBP ability to survive their current talks with the banks, I believe the outcome will be positive.


- First they have sold an onerous electricity contract and will sell more in the future, so that they can sell power at market price.
- The banks have lower the ICR temporarily, giving BBP a breather.
- Gas Tariffs in WA have increased, increasing Alinta's revenue.
- They are number of potential bidders in dark corners, although none have made  satisfactory bid for the assets so far.
-BHP contract, starting July this year will add 70m extra revenue, not much but anything helps with this overstressed company.

This does not mean the BBP is out of the woods yet, the 2.8 billion facility with bankers and 384mil they still owe to BNB liquidators is a problem, there is no guarantee, but considers the upside if BBP do survive. GPG is headed by an very seasoned investor they don't buy a company without believing the company can survive.... but then I could be wrong.


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## Steven12 (5 August 2009)

Everything depends on the outcome on negotiation with bankers:

I think the credit enviornment is loosening and banks are no longer as fearful as before on their investments. Can BBP come out unscathed after mid-sept negotiation? I really don't know, what I can reasonably guess is that their revenue should be higher starting this financial year, and progressively become higher should they survive.

To unlock BBP undervalued assets, BBP must sell the parts of their portfolio or a full takeover, to a company with better management and stronger balance sheet that can digest BBP debts. As well as a successful outcome with the banks, and a more competent management that can make sure power stations are at their highest possible capacity.

Another point I made before was that there is still equity left for shareholders even after liquidation, BBP is not like BNB, it is mostly backed by tangible assets. At present market cap of around 60 million dollars, and looking at the last balance sheet report, they had something close to 700 million equity in the books, and please correct me if I am wrong, but even after a firesale liquidation, and applying a huge discount to the fair value on the equity left, shouldn't there still be something for the shareholders? Although it would probably take years to finalize everything. This is why I think there might be some value left.  All BBP needs is to remove the debt dagger that sits on top of the company.


Last year has been really turbulent, lot of companies have withered and died, BBP has made it this far which is a feat on its own. I wish the best to any brave BBP unit holders out there.


I should disclose that I also hold 12500 BBP units at 8C each.


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## jayinoz (28 August 2009)

Steven12 said:


> This is fron GPG website:
> 
> To answer your question, I think GPG is in the business of buying equity into very under-valued companies, and through active participation of management of the company to realize the company value.
> 
> ...




A broker has stated that to me that the recent upturn will be BBP saviour. Stating that he is heavily buying at only 5% of book value. He does not expect any real upside until BBP renegiotates their debt arrrangements with the banks in Sep09. Naturally if we have another dip in the economy they may not survive. Yet he likes his odds.


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## investormichael (30 September 2009)

Its the end of September and debt negiotiation has been extended to mid october. If these negiotations fall through what will happen to BBP and share price? Will it collapse? Or if the negiotations suceeded would the share price go through the roof? please post your opinions 

Cheers Michael


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## Iggy_Pop (30 September 2009)

Limited research, but if loan negotiations break down, it is all over for the share price. But, the economy is looking good, BBP has good assets, and with some luck can get through though it will take a few years to get back to something reasonable. 

Based on what has happen to BNB, the banks have preferred to keep these companies going to sort out asset sales instead of foreclosing, though BNB has no equity value left. 

And not as bad as BBI which has some hybrid shares which have a greater face value than the market cap.

Fingers crossed and if loan is sorted out, maybe worth buying a few and putting in the bottom draw for a few years.


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## Iggy_Pop (2 October 2009)

The following is from the annual report - 

_BBP has several business critical issues that it is facing over the near term. These include the restructuring and or
settlement of financing arrangements within the Group and the management of the impact of the North West Shelf Joint
Venture (NWS) gas supply arbitration. The Directors acknowledge that there is significant uncertainty over the ability of
BBP to continue as a going concern until these issues are formally resolved. With an understanding of status of the
restructuring negotiations and BBP’s expectations on the resolution of the NWS price dispute, the Directors are of the
opinion that the accounts are correctly prepared on the basis that the Group is a going concern, If for any reason BBP
was unable to successfully resolve its current negotiations on any of the above issues within the range of BBP’s
expectations, BBP may not be able to realise its assets in the ordinary course of business._

And also

_35. Net assets per security
         30 June 2009     (1.48)       30 June 2008 (1.05)
Net tangible assets per stapled security  
Net assets per stapled security 2009  1.31  2008   1.92
BBP has negative net tangible assets per security of -$1.48 (2008: -$1.05). This is primarily attributable to the
acquisition of the Alinta retail business during the 2008 financial year. The nature, and value, of the retail business is
in its brand position as the pre-eminent gas retailer and its customer base (both existing and potential future growth).
This business inherently is different to the existing power generation business as it relies on these characteristics to
produce cash flows as compared to tangible assets such as power plants that characterise the power generation
business.
While the acquired intangibles and goodwill of the retail business in particular represent future economic value to the
Group, they are deducted for the purposes of calculating net tangible assets per security. Net assets per security at
30 June 2009 was $1.31 (2008: $1.92)._

Looks like BBP is going backwards, though debt has reduced with some asset sales and still has the impact on the coal fired power stations of any carbon reduction scheme the Government implements. 

High risk which may pay off long term.


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## Iggy_Pop (18 December 2009)

We are back! Has anyone got any views on the meeting today??

A name change and debt restructuruing.


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## Steven12 (23 December 2009)

I think it's postive and BBP will be able to continue as an ongoing concern,

They have pretty cancelled 80% of their debt to BNB parent on the 400 million loan, and it looks like banks will grant the company the reprieve it needs, and the NWS gas arbitration has come to some form of conclusion even though its a 130 million extra charge on BBP. At this point I believe there is at least enough income to service their debt.

The biggest I am worried about is how the recently failed CPRS deal, which will be introduced again next year, will impact on the book value of the company.

Any thoughts on that?


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## Joe Blow (27 May 2010)

Babcock and Brown Power (BBP) is now known as Alinta Energy Group (AEJ).

Discussion of this company now continues in the AEJ thread, which can be found here: https://www.aussiestockforums.com/forums/showthread.php?t=19608

This thread has now been closed.


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