# Time to invest



## blinkau (22 April 2006)

Hi Guys im fairly new to the share market.  I have been playing the asx game last year and playing it now (up to nearly 62k).

I have been watching a few stock recently which I invested in on the game and have performed well such as ZFX, OXR, WPL, OSH. OXR seems to have been the key one to jump recently from just $2.20 to nearly $3.40 Wednesday/Thursday, also ZFX seems to have performed well. 

I have had a read over the forums and opened an investment account and thinking of purchasing some of the above shares. Do you think say investing in OXR and OSH for a 6 month period would yield a decent return. Im weary as to invest in OXR since the large jump that it may come down and even out.  

Resources seem to be all the go at the moment and it doesnt look like they are going to run out of steam anytime soon. Im only going to invest a small amount to start off 2-3k, do you guys think im heading down the right track?


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## nizar (22 April 2006)

blinkau said:
			
		

> Hi Guys im fairly new to the share market.  I have been playing the asx game last year and playing it now (up to nearly 62k).
> 
> I have been watching a few stock recently which I invested in on the game and have performed well such as ZFX, OXR, WPL, OSH. OXR seems to have been the key one to jump recently from just $2.20 to nearly $3.40 Wednesday/Thursday, also ZFX seems to have performed well.
> 
> ...




Never think that because a share price has gone up a certain % that it cannot go up anymore

As long as earnings keep increasing, theres no reason why the share price cannot keep on going up

Look at OXR's earnings... copper low cost (86c), zinc low cost (20c) and they are unhedged so exposed to any increase in commodity spot prices.. this year 60ktonne copper and 170koz of gold from sepon, golden grove 12ktonne copper, 140ktonne zinc, 40-45koz of gold...

And then in 2008 Prominent Hill comes online, a mini-Olympic Dam they call it, and doubling of copper output at sepon by 2009...

Plus they are spending alot of $$$$ on exploration, so u have that upside, and higher commodity prices can increase their resource...

They are known as copper/gold producer but look how much ZINC they produced, 40,000tonnes in 1st quarter from GG, and thats where the money is being made..

Poised for long-term growth, at the end of this year $3 will seem cheap...   

Just my thoughts - not advice

As for OSH, dont know much about this stock, i prefer WPL as exposure to oil price, but i dont hold either


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## blinkau (22 April 2006)

Thanks for your input   

I plan to put 1k down on a oxr Monday followed by anohter 2-3 k in another 20 days. Im just wondering if their price will level out this comming week or if we will see them above $3.50. I plan to hold them as a 6-12 month investment. 

What sort of forecast would you see them at in 12 months time? Im hoping for around the $7-8 mark would be nice.


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## michael_selway (22 April 2006)

blinkau said:
			
		

> Thanks for your input
> 
> I plan to put 1k down on a oxr Monday followed by anohter 2-3 k in another 20 days. Im just wondering if their price will level out this comming week or if we will see them above $3.50. I plan to hold them as a 6-12 month investment.
> 
> What sort of forecast would you see them at in 12 months time? Im hoping for around the $7-8 mark would be nice.




its possible 6-12 months, however after that might be a bit different

OXR - Earnings and Dividends Forecast (cents per share) 
2005 2006 2007 2008 
EPS 5.6 22.0 15.1 14.2 
DPS -- 2.0 2.0 3. 

 21 April, 2006 
 EPS(c) PE Growth 
Year Ending 30-12-06 22.0 14.8 294.3% 
Year Ending 30-12-07 15.1 21.5 -31.4% 

In regards to OSH, hm it depends on where you think Oil Prices will go, thats they key

thx

MS


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## blinkau (24 April 2006)

I just bought some OXR today paid $3.49 a share for 280 of them.

Saw they close at $3.42 so im down about $43 already   

Hopefully they will increase?

Its a start at least


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## michael_selway (24 April 2006)

blinkau said:
			
		

> I just bought some OXR today paid $3.49 a share for 280 of them.
> 
> Saw they close at $3.42 so im down about $43 already
> 
> ...




hm so little bought, brokerage % must be quite a bit

thx

MS


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## crackaton (24 April 2006)

blinkau said:
			
		

> I just bought some OXR today paid $3.49 a share for 280 of them.
> 
> Saw they close at $3.42 so im down about $43 already
> 
> ...




No offence but you would have been better off buying some physical gold or silver with that paltry amount


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## brerwallabi (24 April 2006)

It seems of late that there are quite a few "punters" who don't know too much about the market and have a bit of cash and are looking for a quick double my money. Of late there seems to be a rush of new members to this and some other forums all asking for a share that will be guaranted to go up and looking for advice. I believe right now there will be quite a few losers out there who really have no knowledge of how the market works and will be investing/trading blind with no plan whatsoever. I suppose it all looks so easy reading stories of successful trades on the stock forums and then taking the plunge and immediately making a winning trade. I just get this feeling however and there will always be a few lucky ones, that a lot of people are going to get seriously burnt shortly. I know what I am prepared to risk and my trades always now have an exit strategy but very few people jumping in now have no idea of when they should exit - winning or losing.
Just my thoughts.


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## mime (24 April 2006)

Nice picks for the comp. Sad you didn't have any real money in them. I'm not sure how long the commodities run is going to last. I like the look of AWB though


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## Julia (24 April 2006)

brerwallabi said:
			
		

> It seems of late that there are quite a few "punters" who don't know too much about the market and have a bit of cash and are looking for a quick double my money. Of late there seems to be a rush of new members to this and some other forums all asking for a share that will be guaranted to go up and looking for advice. I believe right now there will be quite a few losers out there who really have no knowledge of how the market works and will be investing/trading blind with no plan whatsoever. I suppose it all looks so easy reading stories of successful trades on the stock forums and then taking the plunge and immediately making a winning trade. I just get this feeling however and there will always be a few lucky ones, that a lot of people are going to get seriously burnt shortly. I know what I am prepared to risk and my trades always now have an exit strategy but very few people jumping in now have no idea of when they should exit - winning or losing.
> Just my thoughts.




I do agree, Brerwallabi.  I know I'm fairly conservative, but I've been quite astonished at the recklessness which has typified some of the posts you are referring to.



Julia


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## Fab (24 April 2006)

I tend to agree as well and would probably fall into that category to a certain extend nevertheless I believe except people who are really expert in the mining industry ( or resources sector) who are the real specialist we all are punters to different extend then and work with a lot of asumptions. This is also typical behavior of a bullish market . Fortunately at the moment I don' t think the market is yet over priced.


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## michael_selway (24 April 2006)

mime said:
			
		

> Nice picks for the comp. Sad you didn't have any real money in them. I'm not sure how long the commodities run is going to last. I like the look of AWB though




AWB, u mean its going to recover or has recovered from its troubles?

thx

MS


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## nizar (24 April 2006)

blinkau said:
			
		

> I just bought some OXR today paid $3.49 a share for 280 of them.
> 
> Saw they close at $3.42 so im down about $43 already
> 
> ...




the stockmarket is for LONG-TERM investment

and oxiana is a share that will give good capital gains over the LONG-TERM

if ur looking for ways to make money in a few hours, the stockmarket is not for you, maybe u should try the casino


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## blinkau (25 April 2006)

I did purchase the shares for the long term. I have no plans of a 'quick fix' overnight double of money.

I have no plans of trying to double my money losing it then been burnt and quitting the stock market. Yes oxr have raised a fair bit but I would like to keep the share for a considerable amount of time. 

I figured for the amount of money I can go out and blow it on having a great time or I can invest it and hopefully learn something of value about the market. 

I can understand though from my post how it appeard I was in it just to make a couple of $$. 

Im sure ill learn lots from it and hopefully in the long term see some growth. Nothing wrong with giving something a try you have to start somewhere.


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## Kipp (25 April 2006)

blinkau said:
			
		

> I just bought some OXR today paid $3.49 a share for 280 of them.
> 
> Saw they close at $3.42 so im down about $43 already
> 
> ...




Relax... your share won't move up every day... and if you only have ~$1000 invested in OXR, there is only so much damage it can inflict.  And if in 6-12 months times you lose out, well some scientists reckon we learn more through our mistakes than through our sucesses.


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## NettAssets (26 April 2006)

Pulled a mongrel myself last week

Have been holding some WES 36.50 june calls for a while and the price has been waffling so decided to sell may 38.50 calls against them for 16 cents for a little income. Guess I got caught in a volatility play as in the next two days the sold calls went to 51 cents on a small change in the share price. 
May calls OTM increased 300% june ones almost ATM only increased 200%. What a way to decrease the potential !
Guess I'll get the hang of this eventually.
Regards
John


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## Mikepaus (26 April 2006)

It certainly is a worry the amount of people getting into the sharemarket "game".  Investing in the sharemarket is not a game, and yes good money can be made in the various markets.  However, the extremely positive growth of the Australian sharemarket appears to make a lot of people believe that anyone can make money and you can if you aproach it like any business venture, certainly not a game.

All that I can suggest to the newbies in the market is:

1. Read some good books by respected Market Traders (or do a course)
2. Be prepared on any one trade to not "loose" any more than a small percentage of your capital (2% is a sound figure).
3. If you dont have a trading plan at least put in place a risk mitigation strategy for getting out, if it goes against you take your loss and exit the trade, if you don't do this you really are gambling. (It is much easier to buy a share than to sell and take a small loss, but small losses turn into bigger ones and you can be quickly depleted of capital).

One final tip I can give you, If a share has gone up in price it is your money not as I have heard a number of people Quote, "well it doesn't matter that it went down I had some fun and it didn't cost me much" - move your stops up, take some profit, don't just gamble on maybe it will go back up again if I hold it long enough.

I certainly am not an expert so this advise is should be treated as such

MikeP


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## blinkau (26 April 2006)

Thanks for everyones advice I have now realised there is much more about this I need to know before going any further. I plan to hold back now keep what I have (1k oxr) and learn more before I approach the market again.

It feels bad being the 'newbie' as I know from other forums what its like to have a new member approach with all the wrong ideas. 

Thanks for everyones input its greatly appreciated. I will continue to read the forums and post but will hold off for another 3-6 months until I have a solid strategy in place with more knowledge. It will be great getting to know you all and I'll apologise in advance for any future silly questions.. im sure there will be a few


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## crackaton (26 April 2006)

blinkau said:
			
		

> Thanks for everyones advice I have now realised there is much more about this I need to know before going any further. I plan to hold back now keep what I have (1k oxr) and learn more before I approach the market again.
> 
> It feels bad being the 'newbie' as I know from other forums what its like to have a new member approach with all the wrong ideas.
> 
> Thanks for everyones input its greatly appreciated. I will continue to read the forums and post but will hold off for another 3-6 months until I have a solid strategy in place with more knowledge. It will be great getting to know you all and I'll apologise in advance for any future silly questions.. im sure there will be a few



I suggest saving your money,earning more and spending less for the next 6 months. Get a credit card but don't use.


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## RichKid (26 April 2006)

crackaton said:
			
		

> I suggest saving your money,earning more and spending less for the next 6 months....




I agree, save as much as you can and learn to cut your expenses, will help when you start investing too, protecting your capital is what it's about. Enjoy learning and feel free to ask questions after doing a search of the ASF.
You can start with a book like Richest Man in Babylon by Classon.
Good luck!


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## clowboy (26 April 2006)

Another good starting book is rich dad poor dad.
it is a must


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## serp (30 April 2006)

Can't say i got much out of rich dad poor dad, a lot of it seemed common sense and all his big money makers were off cheap real estate deals he made 30 years ago when doing that stuff was a lot easier!


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