# Will Trump's tariffs lead to a global trade war?



## greggles (5 March 2018)

There is talk that Donald Trump's introduction of tariffs last week on steel and aluminium imports to the U.S. could spark a full-blown global trade war that may have dire economic consequences, including a slow drift into recession.

It seems as though Trump is willing to sacrifice relationships with overseas nations at every turn in order to improve his popularity at home. It seems likely that the introduction of these tariffs, which appear to be a knee-jerk response to Trump's declining popularity at home, will result in tit-for-tat retaliatory tariffs that could possibly lead to lower growth and higher inflation.

Trump is well known for his unpredictability and his obsession with "winning", so it seems likely that he will just retaliate further if Europe, China and other nations introduce tariffs on certain US exports. With Canada and Mexico affected by the new tariffs, NAFTA negotiations could be derailed. It seems as though Trump may have opened a rather large can of worms that has a number of unintended consequences.

Could the negative flow-on effects from Trump's tariffs be the trigger that finally pops the U.S. stock market bubble?


----------



## pixel (5 March 2018)

It seems likely that he doesn't give a damn about the consequences.
It also seems likely that Australia will remain one of very few "Allies" - maybe the only one even - to take it all lying down. 
Whoever is content with friends like him won't need enemies...


----------



## tech/a (5 March 2018)

Whoa --- hang on---

I buy a lot of steel.

Prices have been increasing very quickly in the past months.
The introduction of a tariff as I see it means that the US demand
which would be huge---will decrease. So steel suppliers will need
markets elsewhere so in my view lack of demand sees prices drop.

In everywhere BUT the US.
So if US companies cant keep up with demand then tariffs will
go to the Govt. Prices will rise and there will be an effect on their
economy. He will be looking at a balance which you have to!

More employed/more taxes/some tariffs
V
Less demand less employed less taxes.
Which number cruncher will be right?

I doubt you'll see other nations "retaliate" with tariffs on US goods.
It would be counter productive.


----------



## notting (5 March 2018)

Haven't you noticed the Chinese have been at war with us for over 50 years.
It's not just a trade war, that is just the start.
China won't leverage it up until they know they have overwhelming force.  Much smarter than Hitler.
Have you forgotten that Blue Scope steel had to be rescued by our government for security reasons?
Did you not see Australia's - OneSteel collapse?

*One reason - China.*

Trump is on the money on this one.  China targets this area and tried to monopolize rare earths as they are the main ingredience for weapons!

China is the most ruthless psychopathic threat the world has ever seen...... far worse and far smarter than Hitler ever was


----------



## SuperGlue (5 March 2018)

The last American 'trade war' didn't work out so great

"Gillespie: America's last trade war exacerbated the Great Depression in the 1930s, when unemployment rose to 25%. Claiming it was protecting American jobs, Congress passed the Smoot-Hawley Act in 1930......."

"The result: US imports fell 40% in the two years after Smoot-Hawley. Banks shuttered. Unemployment shot up. "

Let's hope it doesn't go the way of 1930s.
A friend's mum (with tears in her eyes) was telling me how her parents and the kids had  to collect grass seed to make bread during the depression times in Oz.
https://edition.cnn.com/2018/03/02/politics/donald-trump-steel-tariffs-q-and-a/index.html


----------



## notting (5 March 2018)

SuperGlue said:


> The last American 'trade war' didn't work out so great
> "Gillespie: America's last trade war exacerbated the Great Depression in the 1930s, when unemployment rose to 25%. Claiming it was protecting American jobs, Congress passed the Smoot-Hawley Act in 1930.....




This is the kind or wording that is so typical of the blindness and dare I say arrogance of the western media, commentators and people in general regarding Asia/China. *This is NOT 'America's' fricken trade war*. It's an alternative response to the more than 50 years of surrender to China's 50 years of all our war and assault on Western economies.

In terms of a strategy however, I think they may be better off welcoming the dumping, let the government pay for and store the excesses  not allowing them to flood the markets and then when China exhausts itself on it's bad sales you have all the goods and an industry in tact.


----------



## SuperGlue (5 March 2018)

notting said:


> In terms of a strategy however, I think they may be better off welcoming the dumping, let the government pay for and store the excesses not allowing them to flood the markets and then when China exhausts itself on it's bad sales you have all the goods and an industry in tact.




The above strategy will definitely fast track US to the ultimate bankruptcy as it is they owe trillions of dollars if not already bankrupt. 
Be good for Oz though, supplying China with iron ore, etc.


----------



## Smurf1976 (5 March 2018)

I’m not sure how but the management of Bell Bay Aluminium (Tasmania) seem to think they’re actually going to gain from it all.

How they gain I haven’t worked out but that’s what they’ve been saying in the mainstream media.

The company produces approximately 190,000 tonnes of aluminium each year and sells that largely in the form of alloys, at least one of which is a patented product whilst the rest are generic aluminium + x alloys.


----------



## notting (5 March 2018)

SuperGlue said:


> The above strategy will definitely fast track US to the ultimate bankruptcy as it is they owe trillions of dollars if not already bankrupt.
> Be good for Oz though, supplying China with iron ore, etc.



Possibly so as China has all but bankrupted them!
What the US should do is cancel all the treasuries China baught and get the rest of the world to do the same and say that's for the theft of intellectual property and then send them a bill for 5 trillion $ for hack attacks, illegal island building, funding North Korea, Iran, Selling Nuclear bomb technology to enable Pakistan to become a nuke state, giving arms and money to Robert Magabe to terrorise and kill his own people in exchange for access to resources and to pay for the Invasions and destruction of neighboring countries  maybe another 10 trillion in damages.etc etc. you could go on forever.......


----------



## SuperGlue (5 March 2018)

notting said:


> Possibly so as China has all but bankrupted them!
> What the US should do is cancel all the treasuries China baught and get the rest of the world to do the same and say that's for the theft of intellectual property and then send them a bill for 5 trillion $ for hack attacks, illegal island building, funding North Korea, Iran, Selling Nuclear bomb technology to enable Pakistan to become a nuke state, giving arms and money to Robert Magabe to terrorise and kill his own people in exchange for access to resources and to pay for the Invasions and destruction of neighboring countries maybe another 10 trillion in damages.etc etc. you could go on forever.......




Easier said then done.

When the Smoot-Hawley Act in 1930 was passed, China was in the dark ages, there were no doors on thunder boxes. 
I doubt dumping chop sticks in the US was the reason for the Act.

China "open up" in the early 1980's, sure China has done lots of dumping.
"In 2016, the Obama administration imposed duties on some Chinese steel imports by more than 500 percent, causing Chinese imports to the U.S. to drop by almost two-thirds." China made complain to the WTO."
https://www.cnbc.com/2018/03/02/if-trump-thinks-hes-taking-steel-tariff-war-to-china-hes-wrong.html

Now, China isn't even in the top 10 steel exporters to the United States.

Trump has reached an informal deal with Boeing to provide two Air Force One planes for U$3.9 billion.
I think the price just went up by 10 to 25%.  Over U$4 billion, don't look good President Trump.
You're fired.


----------



## notting (6 March 2018)

SuperGlue said:


> Now, China isn't even in the top 10 steel exporters to the United States.




That's a bs number.  China circumvents it by dumping in other countries like Mexico who then export to the US, on top if this kind of stuff -


----------



## greggles (6 March 2018)

The U.S. market appears to be shrugging off the tariffs. Dow Jones up 336 points last night.


----------



## SuperGlue (6 March 2018)

"The United States accounted for the largest share of Mexico’s imports by source country at 35 percent (1.9 mmt), followed by Japan at 25 percent (1.4 mmt), South Korea at 12 percent (0.67 mmt), China at 4 percent (0.24 mmt), and Canada at 4 percent (0.23 mmt)."

"Imports from China fell the most, down 25 percent in YTD 2017......."




And Trump wants to negotiate a better deal for US at NAFTA.
Must have gotten his info. for thin air like everyone else. 

Have a read notting only 8 pages, report by US Dept.of Commerce (International Trade Administration)

https://www.trade.gov/steel/countries/pdfs/2017/q2/imports-mexico.pdf


----------



## Smurf1976 (6 March 2018)

As a broad comment I had personally reached the conclusion that we'd see serious moves away from unrestricted free trade at a time when I knew nothing about Trump other than that he was on some TV program and there's a hotel bearing his name in Las Vegas.

Point being this has been coming for a long time and it if it wasn't Trump then it would happen sooner or later anyway.

Biggest problem I see with the "level playing field" is that it's not level. Certain countries achieve their "efficiency" only through artificially cheap inputs whilst the globalists fight tooth and nail to prevent others doing something similar. It's a very tilted playing field and it's not in the direction of Australia that's for sure.


----------



## SuperGlue (6 March 2018)

Trump:   Those tariffs could be removed for Canada and Mexico if they signed a "new and fair" agreement.

Mexico:  But, but.....Mr. Trump , we buy 39% of our steel from you, the largest share of Mexico’s imports of steel. (Side note: Canada supplies 7.9%)

Trump: No buts or ifs.....I want a "new and fair" agreement.

Mexico: Confused & rolled eyes.  Okay, Mr. Trump for a "new and fair" agreement between US and Canada, we have increase your share to 50% US and 50% Canada. Are you happy Mr. Trump?

Trump:


----------



## SuperGlue (10 March 2018)

"Donald Trump tweets he will not impose tariffs on 'the great nation of Australia'"

There's a catch.

"Working very quickly on a security agreement so we don’t have to impose steel or aluminum tariffs on our ally, the great nation of Australia!"
.....and Australia exports steel & aluminium worth about $545 million to US

"Australia buys about 60 per cent of its "warfighting assets" from the US, shares intelligence as part of the Five Eyes alliance, and allows thousands of US Marines to rotate through Darwin each year."
Australian Defence Force spends over $10 billion on US arms in four years

Malcolm Turnbull should be aggressive & demand a "new & fair" (just like Trump demands on NAFTA) security agreement  like a 25% discount on all "warfighting assets" from the US or else ......

http://www.abc.net.au/news/2018-03-...mp-working-tariff-exemption-agreement/9534984
http://www.abc.net.au/news/2018-03-02/how-us-steel-aluminium-tariffs-could-affect-australia/9503602
http://www.abc.net.au/news/2017-12-28/us-weapons-spend-tops-billion-dollar/9287170


----------



## greggles (10 March 2018)

Well, I suppose it's unsurprising that Trump is now making concessions by exempting certain nations from the tariffs. Now the political reality is setting in for him and in order to have constructive relationships with other trading partners, certain exemptions were always going to be necessary. The problem for Trump now is going to be who to offer exemptions to. So far it is Canada, Mexico and Australia. I can't imagine the EU is going to be happy to be left off the list and Europe has far more economic power than Canada, Mexico and Australia combined.

This move always appeared to me to be a cynical attempt by Trump to appeal to blue collar, disenfranchised workers in the steel and aluminium industries in the USA. As a tactic, it seemed a little transparent, especially given his declining popularity.

It will be interesting to see what happens from here.


----------



## luutzu (10 March 2018)

greggles said:


> Well, I suppose it's unsurprising that Trump is now making concessions by exempting certain nations from the tariffs. Now the political reality is setting in for him and in order to have constructive relationships with other trading partners, certain exemptions were always going to be necessary. The problem for Trump now is going to be who to offer exemptions to. So far it is Canada, Mexico and Australia. I can't imagine the EU is going to be happy to be left off the list and Europe has far more economic power than Canada, Mexico and Australia combined.
> 
> This move always appeared to me to be a cynical attempt by Trump to appeal to blue collar, disenfranchised workers in the steel and aluminium industries in the USA. As a tactic, it seemed a little transparent, especially given his declining popularity.
> 
> It will be interesting to see what happens from here.




Read on Reuter that this move actually hurt those steel workers he's saying it tries to help. 

Apparently a lot of the steel that's imported are not being offered by US steel makers. So it will just mean those who buy will either have to accept a higher price or wait until US steel makers, or makers from exempted countries, fire up their investment to produce what's needed.

Further, there's only some 140K steel workers compare to some 6.5M who work for US companies that uses the imported steel. Higher price on costs will most likely lead job cuts.


----------



## SuperGlue (10 March 2018)

greggles said:


> This move always appeared to me to be a cynical attempt by Trump to appeal to blue collar, disenfranchised workers in the steel and aluminium industries in the USA. As a tactic, it seemed a little transparent, especially given his declining popularity.






luutzu said:


> Read on Reuter that this move actually hurt those steel workers he's saying it tries to help.




Trump is actually preparing for the mid-term election, someone who doesn't care what's good for US. 
Historical studies for trade wars are very negative.
Just google "Obama Tire tariff" and "Bush steel tariff"

There's always a hidden agenda.

Building voters support with the blue collar workers in the steel & aluminium industries. 
Mid-term election is in early November 2018 only a few months away and he has intention of being president for life.

Is the prediction below falling into place?
Time will tell.

"Baba Vanga ‘Obama last US president’ prediction: What does it mean?"

http://www.news.com.au/world/north-...n/news-story/a108e14db6091679687f94a60e28311c


----------



## BlownAccount (11 March 2018)

greggles said:


> There is talk that Donald Trump's introduction of tariffs last week on steel and aluminium imports to the U.S. could spark a full-blown global trade war that may have dire economic consequences, including a slow drift into recession.
> 
> It seems as though Trump is willing to sacrifice relationships with overseas nations at every turn in order to improve his popularity at home. It seems likely that the introduction of these tariffs, which appear to be a knee-jerk response to Trump's declining popularity at home, will result in tit-for-tat retaliatory tariffs that could possibly lead to lower growth and higher inflation.
> 
> ...



Im almost certain that he ran for president on these policies. I dont see how they could be seen to knee jerk reactions. These policies make sense for the American economy moving forward. They have a very large trade imbalance with the likes of China who aartifically sets its currency. He is simply taking it to the commie bastards, more power to him i say. 
Cheers


----------



## greggles (11 March 2018)

BlownAccount said:


> Im almost certain that he ran for president on these policies. I dont see how they could be seen to knee jerk reactions. These policies make sense for the American economy moving forward. They have a very large trade imbalance with the likes of China who aartifically sets its currency. He is simply taking it to the commie bastards, more power to him i say.
> Cheers



While I can't recall if the steel and aluminium industries were specifically mentioned by Trump during his campaigning (you could be right), my remark that the tariffs were a knee jerk reaction concerned the timing of the introduction of the tariffs. More specifically, it seemed to co-coincide with media reports of Trump's declining popularity with his support base. However, my assessment was purely anecdotal and I didn't check with any official approval/disapproval statistics.

Interestingly, now that Canada, Mexico and Australia have been exempted from the tariffs, Japan and the EU are also presenting their cases for exemption: https://www.reuters.com/article/us-...r-exemptions-from-trump-tariffs-idUSKCN1GM0PZ

How much is Trump willing to bend on this issue I wonder?


----------



## luutzu (11 March 2018)

BlownAccount said:


> Im almost certain that he ran for president on these policies. I dont see how they could be seen to knee jerk reactions. These policies make sense for the American economy moving forward. They have a very large trade imbalance with the likes of China who aartifically sets its currency. He is simply taking it to the commie bastards, more power to him i say.
> Cheers




Can you explain how it make sense for America? 

If it's about creating jobs, steelworks jobs, a Reuters report... and I'm assuming they're not biased but could be wrong... report showed that there's only some 140K workers in US steel mills. That compare to some 6.5M workers employed by those to import and use the imported steel.

So if the costs to currently imported steel goes up, those who now manufacture using those steel will either have to increase their sales price by at least the equivalent rise, or let their workers go, or move all manufacturing offshore to save on the new tariffs. 

Then there's the exemptions. Mexico, Canada, Australia and anyone else who know a guy who know a guy who lend the Trump and Krushner money can get it...

That's like locking the doors but opening a few windows.


----------



## luutzu (11 March 2018)

greggles said:


> While I can't recall if the steel and aluminium industries were specifically mentioned by Trump during his campaigning (you could be right), my remark that the tariffs were a knee jerk reaction concerned the timing of the introduction of the tariffs. More specifically, it seemed to co-coincide with media reports of Trump's declining popularity with his support base. However, my assessment was purely anecdotal and I didn't check with any official approval/disapproval statistics.
> 
> Interestingly, now that Canada, Mexico and Australia have been exempted from the tariffs, Japan and the EU are also presenting their cases for exemption: https://www.reuters.com/article/us-...r-exemptions-from-trump-tariffs-idUSKCN1GM0PZ
> 
> How much is Trump willing to bend on this issue I wonder?




He's going to bend over after the mid-term election they're having in the US. 

Apparently he's doing this to help some Republican douche who talk God, family value, love and anti-abortion but got caught telling his pregnant on-the-sides to get an abortion. 

That and it might help his friend Carl Icahn shorting a few stocks in the right industry just before the tweet.

The corruption and lies are so blatant it's incredible.


----------



## BlownAccount (11 March 2018)

He is simply supporting local business. At the moment there is a large transfer of


notting said:


> Haven't you noticed the Chinese have been at war with us for over 50 years.
> It's not just a trade war, that is just the start.
> China won't leverage it up until they know they have overwhelming force.  Much smarter than Hitler.
> Have you forgotten that Blue Scope steel had to be rescued by our government for security reasons?
> ...





notting said:


> Haven't you noticed the Chinese have been at war with us for over 50 years.
> It's not just a trade war, that is just the start.
> China won't leverage it up until they know they have overwhelming force.  Much smarter than Hitler.
> Have you forgotten that Blue Scope steel had to be rescued by our government for security reasons?
> ...




I agree whole heartedly...cheers


----------



## BlownAccount (11 March 2018)

How does one edit ones post?


----------



## greggles (2 April 2018)

*China hits back with tariffs on US imports worth $3bn*

http://www.bbc.com/news/world-asia-43614400

Well, this was inevitable. China isn't a country that will just sit back when its interests are being threatened. It will strike back as it has done here. Will Trump now raise the ante?


----------



## pixel (2 April 2018)

BlownAccount said:


> How does one edit ones post?



After posting, you have limited time - 10 minutes, from memory - to make corrections.
For the duration, you will see the "Edit" option underneath your post. Once that tag disappears, you can no longer edit.


----------



## greggles (4 April 2018)

Looks like it is China that is upping the ante: China fires back, announcing tariffs on US planes, cars and soybeans

Wall Street isn't going to like this at all. Looks like we're in for a big down move tonight. Batten down the hatches!


----------



## greggles (4 April 2018)

Trump starts Tweeting:


----------



## CanOz (4 April 2018)

I reckon you’re big down move already happened mate.....


----------



## greggles (4 April 2018)

CanOz said:


> I reckon you’re big down move already happened mate.....



I meant after the market opens in New York in about 45 minutes from now.


----------



## CanOz (5 April 2018)

greggles said:


> I meant after the market opens in New York in about 45 minutes from now.




You do realise th futures trade 24/5?


----------



## greggles (5 April 2018)

CanOz said:


> View attachment 86811
> 
> 
> You do realise th futures trade 24/5?



Yeah, but I don't trade futures. I really only pay attention to pre-market action when there appears there's going to be a big move in either direction.

Nice recovery after the initial fall. The volatility in 2018 makes for some good intraday rollercoaster rides.


----------



## Kerway (5 April 2018)

luutzu said:


> report showed that there's only some 140K workers in US steel mills




Which is probably why Trump wants tariffs imposed. There were surely many more employed in the industry before China manipulated their exchange rate to such an extent that many US steel mills close down.

There is also the US Iron ore mining industry to consider, which lost its local customer base with the importation of steel from China.

I am with Trump on this one.


----------



## CanOz (5 April 2018)

China bought US debt, 100s of billions of it...then the US accuses them of currency manipulation. Japan does the same. One can absolutely argue that quantitative easing was manipulating the greenback for a decade....don’t get me started on currency wars....


----------



## luutzu (5 April 2018)

Kerway said:


> Which is probably why Trump wants tariffs imposed. There were surely many more employed in the industry before China manipulated their exchange rate to such an extent that many US steel mills close down.
> 
> There is also the US Iron ore mining industry to consider, which lost its local customer base with the importation of steel from China.
> 
> I am with Trump on this one.




American industrialists were the ones shipping those, and many other, jobs and industries offshore.

China was/is one of the biggest destination because of its cheap labour force and zero environmental regulation. Not to mention no pesky Unions demanding safe working environment and all that. 

So it's a bit much to blame the Chinese for "cheating" and manipulating this and that. 

If exchange rate is the reason for mills closure, you'd think the thing to do is manipulate US exchange rate back. Yes, it can be done, even in "floating" currency. 

Anyway, I read somewhere that China didn't export that much steel to the US to be affected by these tariffs. That and their planned One Road, One Belt master plan will definitely eat up all the steel they can manufacturer for a couple of decades.


----------



## greggles (6 April 2018)

Trump ups the ante and threatens $US100bn more China tariffs.

https://www.smh.com.au/world/north-...100bn-more-china-tariffs-20180406-p4z82o.html

Where is this all going to end? Both sides are trying to look stronger than the other. It seems to be a battle of egos rather than anything else.


----------



## tech/a (6 April 2018)

It will end when Money becomes the dominant factor.

If its going to Cost one side more than the other
OR
Increase the capital for one side more than the other

Will be the determining factor.
Its just another day in the Business of *NEGOTIATION

Each have their vested interests*


----------



## Gringotts Bank (6 April 2018)

greggles said:


> Trump ups the ante and threatens $US100bn more China tariffs.
> 
> https://www.smh.com.au/world/north-...100bn-more-china-tariffs-20180406-p4z82o.html
> 
> Where is this all going to end? Both sides are trying to look stronger than the other. It seems to be a battle of egos rather than anything else.




Battle for domainace.  Both countries want to be number one in the world, and neither will back down.  NK is sucking up to them both in a pathetic display.  Russia is the wild card, capable of upsetting everything.


----------



## greggles (17 April 2018)

*China slaps 179% charge on US sorghum imports*

http://money.cnn.com/2018/04/17/news/economy/china-us-sorghum-antidumping/index.html

It's not over yet. China ups the ante again. I don't think this is a war Trump can win. By targeting agricultural products the Chinese realise that they will have an economic impact on Trump's rural support base. Clever tactic.

Trump hasn't tweeted in almost 24 hours. Is something wrong?


----------



## greggles (16 June 2018)

U.S. markets down overnight on news that Trump is going ahead with his 25% tariffs on $50 billion worth of Chinese goods. The Chinese have said that they will respond in kind. The Trade War is back on.

http://money.cnn.com/2018/06/15/news/economy/china-us-trade-war/index.html?iid=EL

I knew that Trump wouldn't back down from a fight that he had picked. His ego will not permit him to look weak. As we head into the end of the financial year, this could have dire consequences for world markets.  I still think that we will finish the financial year at 2018 lows as growth forecasts are slashed.


----------



## luutzu (16 June 2018)

greggles said:


> U.S. markets down overnight on news that Trump is going ahead with his 25% tariffs on $50 billion worth of Chinese goods. The Chinese have said that they will respond in kind. The Trade War is back on.
> 
> http://money.cnn.com/2018/06/15/news/economy/china-us-trade-war/index.html?iid=EL
> 
> I knew that Trump wouldn't back down from a fight that he had picked. His ego will not permit him to look weak. As we head into the end of the financial year, this could have dire consequences for world markets.  I still think that we will finish the financial year at 2018 lows as growth forecasts are slashed.




Hard to understand any of this really. 

Sanctions on rogue states and bad generals is one thing, trade wars and tariff hikes on friends and enemies alike... Who's going to benefit from it really. Who's going to keep buying, or selling, to your country? And how many people and small operations could afford the hike (unless you stretch that budget further and subsidise them, which will just put the burden on the already stretched plebs).

I mean, assuming the US can be completely self-sufficient, it's going to take longer than Trump's two terms to kick long dead industries back to life to support the raw material and ingredients to produce any thing competitive. 

Then once they managed to produced it, the other countries will either still have their tariffs up, or hike it further to keep protecting their industry. 

And in the meantime, they will just sell it to the likes of China, at a lost or breakeven just to keep their plebs from all going on welfare. 

Read on Reuters that Canadians are now more weary of US-made products, as in they're trying to avoid buying it unless it's absolutely necessary.


----------



## BlownAccount (17 June 2018)

Does anyone have insight into weather or not China unfairly manipulates its currency? I believe they in part utilise an secret basket of currencies and keep tight reins on the capital flow of their currency. They do this and yet want to play on the world stage. Trumps tarrifs are a responsible implementation of sound monetary policy.


----------



## sptrawler (17 June 2018)

It is sure fire way, of getting the inflation ball rolling, and kick starting the economy. 
Price hikes, wages rises and profit growth, here we here we go here we go, the capitalist ball slowly gathers speed post gfc stagnation.


----------



## Smurf1976 (17 June 2018)

BlownAccount said:


> Does anyone have insight into weather or not China unfairly manipulates its currency?



It's not really a secret that China for a very long time pegged its currency directly to the US Dollar.

So yes, manipulated most certainly but they're not trying to keep that secret.


----------



## BlownAccount (18 June 2018)

Hi Smurf, yes although they do indeed have a secret sauce so to speak on the formula used. The other issue is whether or not they act reasonably with regards to their control over currency flow out of the country. I don't know the answer to this although i get the impression they have much tighter controls than the rest of their trading partners. Perhaps they have a good reason for this yet they are commies after all so go Trump and the rest. 
Cheers


----------



## luutzu (18 June 2018)

BlownAccount said:


> Hi Smurf, yes although they do indeed have a secret sauce so to speak on the formula used. The other issue is whether or not they act reasonably with regards to their control over currency flow out of the country. I don't know the answer to this although i get the impression they have much tighter controls than the rest of their trading partners. Perhaps they have a good reason for this yet they are commies after all so go Trump and the rest.
> Cheers




China is being very smart with their capital-flight control. Seems they only allow investment in overseas  assets that can demonstrably benefit China and curb capital outflow for no other reason than some comrades and tycoons hedging their bets offshore.

Any intelligent politician should be copying that model. Else the country will suffer like Europe post WWII; Russia, Japan and most of the world after Nixon floated the USD.

Former Greek Finance Minister, Varafoukis [?] wrote on the US's plan under Nixon/Kissinger, one continued by all his successors, of luring capital away from other countries to fill US treasury.

Guess who benefits when property and financial assets boom? Guess who cries all the way home after the show's over?

I don't know enough detail on this, but seems that China's opening up to Westerners under Deng Xiaoping wasn't just the comrades worrying about another revolution from its starving peasants. But also emulating a game the US pulled on the world in luring its capital in to help develop its economy.


----------



## greggles (19 June 2018)

Trump ups the ante again by threatening another $200 billion in tariffs on Chinese goods if China follows through on its promise to retaliate against the US tariffs announced last week. This is starting to sound like schoolyard stuff.

http://money.cnn.com/2018/06/18/news/economy/trump-china-tariffs-retaliation/index.html

The Dow is set to plummet hundreds of points tonight after the US-China trade war intensifies.


----------



## greggles (11 July 2018)

greggles said:


> Trump ups the ante again by threatening another $200 billion in tariffs on Chinese goods if China follows through on its promise to retaliate against the US tariffs announced last week.




Trump follows through on his promise and prepares another round of tariffs on Chinese goods worth $200 billion.

https://www.cnn.com/2018/07/10/politics/ustr-new-china-tariffs-trump/index.html

China is willing to endure far more economic pain than the US. If this next round of tariffs are introduced then China will no doubt retaliate once again. This tit-for-tat tariff war will inevitably lead to higher inflation and lower growth. Expect a down move on the US market tonight.


----------



## Kerway (14 July 2018)

greggles said:


> This tit-for-tat tariff war




I don't think it's so much a war as a one sided massacre. Trump knows that China sell far more to the US than vice-versa.

The US stands to benefit from not only receiving massive amounts of import duty but also through the protection of local industry. Obviously, those who are against him will emphasise the negative effect on some US companies like Harley Davidson.


----------



## greggles (15 July 2018)

Kerway said:


> I don't think it's so much a war as a one sided massacre. Trump knows that China sell far more to the US than vice-versa.
> 
> The US stands to benefit from not only receiving massive amounts of import duty but also through the protection of local industry. Obviously, those who are against him will emphasise the negative effect on some US companies like Harley Davidson.




Good points but you forget that the Chinese leaders are not subject to the same electoral forces as leaders in Western democracies. Term limits for the Chinese President and Vice President were abolished in March 2018. Xi Jinping will be in power for a long time.

Trump was elected primarily by working class blue collar voters. China has already started targeting industries that affect them such as farming and manufacturing by putting tariffs on US exports such as soybeans. There will be more to come. Trump has more to lose in an electoral sense even if the US has more economic weight to throw around. Those blue collar voters will switch political allegiances quickly if their lives get any worse or if they feel Trump isn't acting in their best interests.


----------



## RIP1 (19 July 2018)

BlownAccount said:


> Im almost certain that he ran for president on these policies. I dont see how they could be seen to knee jerk reactions. These policies make sense for the American economy moving forward. They have a very large trade imbalance with the likes of China who aartifically sets its currency. He is simply taking it to the commie bastards, more power to him i say.
> Cheers



I agree with your view but see the likely result of China appeasing him will be diverting orders for Australian Wine and Ag to the USA.


----------



## greggles (3 August 2018)

And on it goes...

*China plans tariffs on $60 billion of US products*

https://money.cnn.com/2018/08/03/news/economy/china-us-tariffs-retaliation/index.html



> *China has announced plans to put tariffs of up to 25% on US products worth $60 billion.*
> 
> The Chinese government said Friday that it would impose duties of 25%, 20%, 10% and 5% on the products if the Trump administration follows through on threats to tax $200 billion of Chinese goods.




Gold is up.


----------



## sptrawler (29 August 2018)

China can put on what tarrifs it likes, the trade imbalance is still there, and the perception that Chinese gear is crap is still there.
China import $160 billion of U.S gear, the U.S imports $630 billion of Chinese gear, it is simple maths.
China needs to start and play the game, or they will have to dump gear World wide. 
Which will be good for us shoppers in Aus.


----------



## greggles (18 September 2018)

Trump ups the ante again:


> The United States will impose a 10% tariff later this month on $200 billion worth of Chinese goods, increasing to 25% at the end of the year, the Trump administration announced Monday.
> 
> The additional tariffs are on top of penalties enacted earlier this year on $50 billion worth of Chinese goods. Taken together, it means roughly half of the products that China sells to the United States each year will be hit by American tariffs.




https://www.cnn.com/2018/09/17/politics/us-china-tariff-trade-war/index.html

We can expect a Chinese retaliatory response shortly in spite of Trump warning the Chinese against it.


> Trump also threatened to inflict more economic pain in the form of additional tariffs if Beijing takes any retaliatory action.


----------



## IFocus (18 September 2018)

What's your take on all this Greggles do you think this will eventually blow back into the Oz economy?


----------



## greggles (18 September 2018)

IFocus said:


> What's your take on all this Greggles do you think this will eventually blow back into the Oz economy?



I reckon it's inevitable that it will. I think it will continue to put downward pressure on the AUD. I must admit to being surprised that it hasn't had much of an impact on the gold price yet, but perhaps it's still early days? Still a lot of posturing and back and forth going on. It could get much worse if the Chinese push back hard as I suspect they will. Maybe then we'll see gold heading north a little.


----------



## greggles (19 September 2018)

greggles said:


> It could get much worse if the Chinese push back hard as I suspect they will. Maybe then we'll see gold heading north a little.




Chinese not pushing back hard after all and world markets shaking off trade war fears. AUD up in the last 24 hours too.


> "China are out of bullets. The fight is done and dusted. Now it's just a question of how the Chinese can save face and say 'alright we're going to change, going to open up wider access not only to the US but to the EU and Japan', said Christopher Peel, chief investment officer at Tavistock Wealth in London.
> 
> "Their economy is export-led, they can't afford for it to go out of control."



Interesting.


----------



## greggles (24 September 2018)

Trump's Trade War is back on: https://www.cnn.com/2018/09/23/politics/trump-trade-war-china/index.html


> (CNN) - The trade fight between the United States and China intensified Monday as the two economic superpowers hit each other with their biggest round of tariffs yet.
> 
> The Trump administration imposed new 10% tariffs on $200 billion of Chinese goods just after midnight ET (noon in Beijing), spanning thousands of products, including food seasonings, baseball gloves, network routers and industrial machinery parts. China retaliated immediately with new taxes of 5% to 10% on $60 billion of US goods such as meat, chemicals, clothes and auto parts.
> 
> ...




The Aussie dollar and gold are stable right now but it will be interesting to see what happens when the U.S. market opens tonight.


----------



## sptrawler (24 September 2018)

Inflation will pick up, interest rates will pick up, wages will pick up, share prices will drop and property prices will drop, and so the cycle goes back to normal.


----------



## SirRumpole (1 October 2018)

sptrawler said:


> China can put on what tarrifs it likes, the trade imbalance is still there, and the perception that Chinese gear is crap is still there.
> China import $160 billion of U.S gear, the U.S imports $630 billion of Chinese gear, it is simple maths.
> China needs to start and play the game, or they will have to dump gear World wide.
> Which will be good for us shoppers in Aus.




So dumping crap gear on us consumers is good for us ?


----------



## sptrawler (1 October 2018)

SirRumpole said:


> So dumping crap gear on us consumers is good for us ?



We thrive on it, just go to Bunnings, Hardley Normal's, JB Hi Fi any weekend. China will save our ar$e yet again.


----------



## SirRumpole (4 October 2018)

The world is vulnerable to another global financial crash says the IMF.

http://www.abc.net.au/news/2018-10-...another-financial-meltdown-warns-imf/10337490


----------



## sptrawler (10 October 2018)

China is going to have to enter talks with the U.S IMO, the tarrifs are starting to bite.

https://www.smh.com.au/business/mar...onfrontation-with-the-us-20181009-p508kd.html


----------



## greggles (13 May 2019)

Trump is at it again. 

Dow Futures are sharply lower tonight as the Chinese retaliate against Trump's recent tariff increases by hiking tariffs on $60 billion of imports from the United States.

Predictably, gold is up. Looks like we're in for some more volatility.


----------



## Smurf1976 (14 May 2019)

greggles said:


> Trump is at it again.



What?

You mean he shorted the index a week or two ago or something.....


----------



## sptrawler (14 May 2019)

I had the opportunity to talk to a few American's, while travelling, I would casually bring up Trump in conversation and ask what their opinion of him was, saying we don't get much coverage in Aus.
They all seem to think he is erratic, but the economy is doing really well and they all seem to think he will be re elected.
So it is interesting, the press don't seem to be getting much traction, bagging him.


----------



## greggles (14 May 2019)

Smurf1976 said:


> What?
> 
> You mean he shorted the index a week or two ago or something.....




Sorry Smurf, that did sound a little odd didn't it? 

I meant that Trump is at it again, provoking a trade war with China and that his latest tariffs announced on Friday would cause volatility on global markets. And, of course, they did. The DJIA plunged 617.38 points or 2.38% overnight after China retaliated with their own.

I suspect that this tit for tat tariff war will continue to have a negative effect on global markets and we will probably see the DJIA under 25,000 in the coming days.


----------



## greggles (14 May 2019)

Here are the stocks to buy if an all-out U.S.-China trade war erupts, according to Goldman Sachs.

https://www.marketwatch.com/story/h...hina-trade-war-erupts-says-goldman-2019-05-08


----------



## basilio (30 May 2019)

Another turn on the China-US trade front.

China is looking at strategic export restrictions of rare earth elements to US. China supplies around 80% of US requirements of rare earth elements and these are critical components of the electronics, car manufacturing and defence industy...

Not a good sign for the US economy.
 
* Global markets fall as China prepares to hit back at US in trade war *

Dow Jones slumps after Beijing signals readiness to restrict exports of rare-earth elements

Financial markets around the world have sold off sharply after Beijing signalled a readiness to strike back at Washington in their escalating trade war by restricting exports of rare-earth elements.

Wall Street recorded steep losses on Wednesday as the Dow Jones slumped to the lowest level in almost four months, losing about 221 points to trade at 25,126. The S&P 500 index also fell to a two-month low, sliding by 19 points to 2,783.

Against a backdrop of mounting concern over the long-running trade dispute between the US and China, which stands to choke global growth, Beijing signalled that exports of rare-earth elements to the US could be curtailed.



*  US-China trade: what are rare-earth metals and what's the dispute?  *
Read more
Chinese media reports, including the People’s Daily, the flagship newspaper of the Communist party, raised the prospect of the crackdown, which would stand to hit American companies involved in electronics, car production and defence.

Analysts said China handles roughly 80% of US imports of rare earths and that high-tech manufacturers could see their profits crippled by the measures.
https://www.theguardian.com/busines...china-prepares-to-hit-back-at-us-in-trade-war
____________________________

On the other side of the page this could be a great opportunity to get into companies with rare earth interests.


----------



## bigdog (18 June 2019)

*Will Trump's tariffs lead to a global trade war?*
*Looking likely!!*

https://www.theage.com.au/world/asi...-as-india-raises-tariffs-20190616-p51y6d.html

*Trump trade fight escalates as India raises tariffs*
June 16, 2019 — 11.32am

*Mumbai:* India has announced it would raise tariffs on 28 categories of imports from the United States, the latest escalation in what has been a slow-motion trade fight between the two countries.

The increased tariffs, on $1.4 billion of goods, went into effect Sunday morning in India and cover almonds, walnuts, apples and finished metal items, among other products.

Unlike other trade battles that President Donald Trump has waged, such as the increasingly bitter feud with China, the conflict with India threatens far less economic pain to either country.

Tariffs on almonds, for example, will go up about 20 per cent under the new rules — but that translates into a wholesale price increase of about 3¢ per kilogram for almonds in the shell, according to industry officials. India is one of the largest markets in the world for almonds from California, which produces most of the global supply, but growers are more focused on wooing Indian shoppers from locally grown nuts like cashews than on the trade duties.

India first proposed the tariffs a year ago in response to the Trump administration's increased tariffs on imported aluminum and steel.

But the Indian government kept postponing the duties as it tried to negotiate a broader trade agreement with Washington. Those talks broke down as India headed to elections this year.

At the end of May, Trump announced he was revoking a preferential trade status for more than $5 billion in imports from India, a move that US officials had been considering for more than a year. That prompted India to finally move forward with its long-threatened tariffs.

The tit-for-tat response allows both countries to signal that they are being tough on trade before two bilateral meetings this month: first a visit by Secretary of State Mike Pompeo to New Delhi, and then a planned meeting between Trump and India's recently re-elected prime minister, Narendra Modi, at the G20 summit meeting in Japan.

Those conversations are also expected to address more substantive disputes between the countries, such as the US embargo on Iranian oil and India's planned purchase of Russian-made S-400 air defense systems.


----------



## Smurf1976 (12 August 2019)

> So many manufacturers are moving out of China at breakneck speed




https://www.theage.com.au/business/...-exodus-of-manufacturers-20190812-p52gat.html


----------



## sptrawler (12 August 2019)

Smurf1976 said:


> https://www.theage.com.au/business/...-exodus-of-manufacturers-20190812-p52gat.html



I wondered when I read that article, whether the cost of manufacturing in China was increasing, due to wages or Government charges.


----------



## SirRumpole (24 August 2019)

Trump's latest effort to destabilise the world economy.

https://www.abc.net.au/news/2019-08...panies-to-seek-alternatives-to-china/11444922


----------



## explod (24 August 2019)

It is underway now unfortunately:-

https://www.zerohedge.com/news/2019-08-23/hows-recession-coming-dave


----------



## bigdog (24 August 2019)

Latest Trump action



https://www.usnews.com/news/busines...mble-on-growing-tariffs-rift-between-us-china
By Associated Press, Wire Service Content Aug. 23, 2019, at 7:41 p.m.

WASHINGTON (AP) — President Donald Trump angrily escalated his trade fight with China on Friday, raising retaliatory tariffs and ordering American companies to consider alternatives to doing business there.

He also blamed Jerome Powell, the man he appointed as chairman of the Federal Reserve, for the state of the domestic economy, wondering who was a "bigger enemy" of the U.S. — Powell or Chinese President Xi Jinping.

Even by the turbulent standards of the Trump presidency, his actions, all done via Twitter, were notable, sending markets sharply lower and adding to a sense of uncertainty on the eve of his trip to France for a meeting of global economic powers.

Trump's move came after Beijing announced Friday morning that it had raised taxes on U.S. products. He huddled with advisers, firing off tweets that attacked China and the Fed. And he mockingly attributed a Wall Street drop of 573 points to the withdrawal of a marginal candidate from the Democratic presidential race.


----------



## sptrawler (24 August 2019)

I certainly wonder if he is doing his chances of re election any good, even the rusted on in the U.S must be getting a bit nervous, with the tit for tat behaviour.
Shaking China's tree needed to happen IMO, but an end to the too and froing needs to be in sight before their elections next year, even trump must recognise that.


----------



## moXJO (24 August 2019)

Companies are moving from China,  which is a good thing. Obviously China is too big for a complete withdrawal of business. But manufacturing is moving on the tariffs. Better products are coming out of places like Vietnam, Sri Lanka, Phillipines, etc. And its good for their economies. 

China advanced on the back of stealing tech and hacking other countries databases. Then taking military moves in the Pacific. They needed to be curbed. Their government is an evil, greedy, power hungry regime. And while the US isn't much better: China is outright oppressive. 

Trump in this incident is doing what Obama and Bush failed to do.
I reckon Trumps gone 2020 as well.


----------



## SirRumpole (24 August 2019)

sptrawler said:


> I certainly wonder if he is doing his chances of re election any good, even the rusted on in the U.S must be getting a bit nervous, with the tit for tat behaviour.
> Shaking China's tree needed to happen IMO, but an end to the too and froing needs to be in sight before their elections next year, even trump must recognise that.




If Trump gets companies back to the USA then he will get a big boost.

If US companies move from China to Vietnam, Korea, Taiwan, India etc then it gives China a kick but there is no benefit to the US and will be neutral for Trump.


----------



## moXJO (24 August 2019)

SirRumpole said:


> If Trump gets companies back to the USA then he will get a big boost.
> 
> If US companies move from China to Vietnam, Korea, Taiwan, India etc then it gives China a kick but there is no benefit to the US and will be neutral for Trump.



Economic sense,  yes. But it will thwart Chinas plans for a while. Their demographics only go more pear shape from here (from memory?).

Looking at the polling models, Trump is gone. He had a few things going in his favor last time. I don't think he can replicate it this time if the dem base turn out.


----------



## IFocus (24 August 2019)

The economic numbers coming out of the US are still reasonably OK not to say they will continue as for the trade war I don't think anyone will blink and yes not sure if its the best way but sooner rather than later China has to start playing the game although every chance they never will ever tried bargaining with a proper Chinese businessman?


----------



## Knobby22 (24 August 2019)

IFocus said:


> The economic numbers coming out of the US are still reasonably OK not to say they will continue as for the trade war I don't think anyone will blink and yes not sure if its the best way but sooner rather than later China has to start playing the game although every chance they never will ever tried bargaining with a proper Chinese businessman?



Some of the big Republican backers will lose money. I think they may seek to replace Trump for the next election.
Also the trade war may actually be to Australia's advatage.
Trumps also now fighting with India and Japan on the trade front. Great for us!


----------



## tinhat (24 August 2019)

IFocus said:


> The economic numbers coming out of the US are still reasonably OK not to say they will continue as for the trade war I don't think anyone will blink and yes not sure if its the best way but sooner rather than later China has to start playing the game although every chance they never will ever tried bargaining with a proper Chinese businessman?




The USA will blink first. The only thing they stood to gain from starting the war was to lose.


----------



## Gringotts Bank (24 August 2019)

tinhat said:


> The USA will blink first. The only thing they stood to gain from starting the war was to lose.



If the US/Aus and allies can somehow manage to encourage south east Asian countries to develop manufaturing capacity, there's a chance we can have a mutually respectful relationship with them instead of relying completely on China.  Trying to continue business with an aggressive dictatorship is not working.


----------



## IFocus (24 August 2019)

Knobby22 said:


> Some of the big Republican backers will lose money. I think they may seek to replace Trump for the next election.
> Also the trade war may actually be to Australia's advatage.
> Trumps also now fighting with India and Japan on the trade front. Great for us!




Yes its the one sure thing in politics  with the Yanks and here to a degree any economic slow down and you're gone when the big money speaks.

Will be interesting on where it all ends up.


----------



## sptrawler (24 August 2019)

SirRumpole said:


> If Trump gets companies back to the USA then he will get a big boost.
> 
> If US companies move from China to Vietnam, Korea, Taiwan, India etc then it gives China a kick but there is no benefit to the US and will be neutral for Trump.



I think you are right on the money there Rumpy, if the multinationals just move to another cheap labor source, he has lost the momentum.
The problem is he is trying to wind back a situation American multinationals caused in the first place, by outsourcing to cheaper labour countries to increase profits.
Now he wants to reverse it, but the problem is internal, the rednecks support him, but the big money will have a knife in his back. Just my opinion.


----------



## Gringotts Bank (25 August 2019)

sptrawler said:


> ... trying to wind back a situation *American multinationals caused in the first place*




Yes they need to understand the part they played in the current mess.  China's stealing of IP and unfair trade practices were probably a backlash against that era of exploitation.  However the exploitation of cheap labour continues, including by the Chinese of their own underclasses.  Can someone explain to me why people in developing countries are paid less than here for the same work?  Is it all about cost of providing reasonable hours, safe work places and worker insurance?  Is that the difference?


----------



## basilio (25 August 2019)

Gringotts Bank said:


> Yes they need to understand the part they played in the current mess.  China's stealing of IP and unfair trade practices were probably a backlash against that era of exploitation.  However the exploitation of cheap labour continues, including by the Chinese of their own underclasses.  Can someone explain to me why people in developing countries are paid less than here for the same work?  Is it all about cost of providing reasonable hours, safe work places and worker insurance?  Is that the difference?




At its simplest if the cost of housing, food , other essentials is only 25% of what we pay then wages could equally be 25% of our ages and people would have a similar standard of living.

The clever trick of multinationals is having their products made in a low cost country but then selling them in a high value country and making a truck load of profit.

The other point you made however is also valid. Part of the deal of companies setting up factories in China and elsewhere is  being able to ignore issues like safety, working hours, and proper wages. In the end Western consumers get cheaper products, manufacturers make higher profits (think Apple, think computer companies)  - and there are far fewer  jobs left in our local economy.


----------



## basilio (25 August 2019)

Trumps nuclear option in his current trade war with China. He knows about it. Will he use it ? What will be left if it goes off ?

*Donald Trump's 'nuclear' trade option could shut down all Chinese business and investment in US*

He has one very big option — trade's nuclear option — at his fingertips.
*National emergency declaration*
The International Emergency Economic Power Act (IEEPA) is effectively a declaration of a "state of national emergency" — a drastic action far in excess of the tit-for-tat tariff skirmishes currently being fought.
It is the Trump Administration's most extreme trade weapon and could effectively block China's access to all US markets if deployed.
That means not just blocking goods and services, it would target Chinese investments and likely slam the door on China's access to US financial markets and banks.
The IEEPA was drawn up in 1977 to modernise the Trading with the Enemy Act, which dated back to World War I, and focus it on external threats to the US.
It was last invoked by President George W Bush after the 9/11 attacks to block the assets of terrorist organisations.
Earlier this year, President Trump announced he'd wheel out the IEEPA powers to hit Mexico with tariffs to head off the perceived national security threat posed by illegal immigrants continuing to head north across the border.

*Now China is in the IEEPA crosshairs as Mr Trump tweeted to doubters of his powers.
https://www.abc.net.au/news/2019-08...-nuclear-option-could-block-business/11445090*


----------



## bigdog (26 August 2019)

https://www.usatoday.com/story/news...k-if-u-s-hits-french-wines-tariff/2108036001/

*At G7, EU warns it will respond 'in kind' if Trump puts tariff on French wine*
Michael Collins, USA TODAY Published 1:09 p.m. ET Aug. 24, 2019

BIARRITZ, France – The president of the European Council put President Donald Trump on notice Saturday that the E.U. will stand with France and strike back if the United States slaps tariffs on French wines.

“If the U.S. imposes tariffs on France, the E.U. will respond in kind,” E.U. Council President Donald Tusk told reporters at the annual G7 gathering in southwest France.

The last thing the 28-member bloc needs and wants is a confrontation, “especially with our best ally, the United States,” Tusk said. But “we have to be ready. … and we are ready,” he said. “France can count on our loyalty, as all member states do.”

Tusk’s remarks follow Trump’s threat to place tariffs on French wines in retaliation for France’s new digital services tax, which has angered U.S. tech giants such as Google and Amazon.

The 3% levy, approved in July, would be placed on yearly revenues of companies that provide services in France and have global revenues of at least 25 million euros ($28 million) in France and 750 euros ($837 million) worldwide every year.

Trump threatened in July to slap tariffs on French wines in retaliation for the tax. He repeated the threat again Friday night as he was leaving for the G7 meetings.

Trump is expected to raise the issue with French President Emmanuel Macron during this weekend’s summit.


----------



## sptrawler (1 September 2019)

More tarrifs imposed on Sunday 1/09, it will be interesting to see how the markets respond this week.

https://www.abc.net.au/news/2019-09-01/us-china-trade-war-escalates-with-additional-tariffs/11468922

From the article:
_A new round of tariffs took effect from 2:01pm on Sunday, with Beijing's levy of five per cent on US crude marking the first time the fuel has been targeted since the world's two largest economies started their trade war more than a year ago.

The Trump administration will begin collecting 15 per cent tariffs on more than $US125 billion ($185 billion) in Chinese imports, including smart speakers, Bluetooth headphones and many types of footwear.

In retaliation, China started to impose additional tariffs on some of the US goods on a $US75 billion ($111 billion) target list_ .

It will be interesting, if this trade war, is sorted out just in time for the run up to the U.S elections. Maybe Jan/ Feb.


----------



## Garpal Gumnut (1 September 2019)

There may be a trade battle, as there always is, but not a trade war. 

Most countries such as USA and China have significant assets earning dosh outside of their own jurisdictions, so a war can be self defeating.

gg


----------



## sptrawler (24 September 2019)

Well the gloves are off now, they are calling it as it is, China is no longer a developing Country and should face the same trade obligations as the developed Countries. The Lima accord, was to help third World countries, not first World Countries.

https://www.abc.net.au/news/2019-09...lls-for-trade-overhaul-of-wto-system/11541522


----------



## qldfrog (26 September 2019)

Something unrelated to Trump is brewing between South Korea and Japan in term of trade war, and we start seeing articles about this in Australia lately
Slightly off topic but related to trade war with effects on us


----------



## SirRumpole (26 September 2019)

qldfrog said:


> Something unrelated to Trump is brewing between South Korea and Japan in term of trade war, and we start seeing articles about this in Australia lately
> Slightly off topic but related to trade war with effects on us




Seems to have it's origins in wartime forced labour by Japan.

After all these years someone has opened old wounds. Incredible.

I blame the "me too" movement.


----------



## IFocus (26 September 2019)

SirRumpole said:


> Seems to have it's origins in wartime forced labour by Japan.
> 
> After all these years someone has opened old wounds. Incredible.
> 
> I blame the "me too" movement.




The word from some one I know in Japan (Ausie) is that the South Koreans use any opportunity to have a go at the Japanese hope it doesn't get out of control there is enough dramas happening already.


----------



## sptrawler (10 October 2019)

US Commerce Secretary Wilbur Ross, explains the trade war pretty well, for those who are interested in listening.

https://www.watoday.com.au/politics...-to-back-us-in-trade-war-20191010-p52zh4.html

Maybe now the Australian media have printed it, they might read it. 

From the article:
_Mr Ross used his speech in Sydney to keep pressure on Beijing to back down in the trade war with the United States, arguing it was breaking global rules for fair trade.

He said the "rules-based order" was at the heart of the Trump administration's dealings with China.


"We are not opposed to trade with China," he said.

"In fact, we [are] hosting negotiations with them later this week in Washington.

"But we are addressing fundamental issues in our trade relationship with China, including forced technology transfers, cyber intrusions, the stealing of [intellectual property] and industrial subsidies to state-owned enterprises.

"China continues to cause massive dislocations due to overcapacity and dumping excess production into global markets.

"If we can get China to abide by the global rules of trade, every nation in the world will benefit - including China. China is, after all, a real powerhouse. It is growing rapidly. And with its success comes responsibility - it's responsibility to act as a member of the global community."_


----------



## sptrawler (10 October 2019)

The U.S is considering a currency agreement with China and possible hold on next weeks tariff increases.

https://www.reuters.com/article/us-...of-partial-trade-deal-bloomberg-idUSKBN1WP048


----------



## Knobby22 (10 October 2019)

If you read the article it also states the deal with China  includes buying large numbers of commodities 
Could be bad for our iron exporters.


----------



## qldfrog (16 October 2019)

And to add a bit of balance to the Trump bashing posts..could not find the right thread probably in my ignore list
https://www.fff.org/2019/10/09/the-cia-versus-donald-j-trump/


----------



## sptrawler (5 November 2019)

China is reviewing locations in the U.S. where President Xi Jinping would be willing to meet with Donald Trump to sign the first phase of a trade deal between the world’s two largest economies, people familiar with the plans said.

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/arti...i-as-progress-seen-on-trade?srnd=premium-asia


----------



## sptrawler (5 November 2019)

It looks as though Trumps tarrifs are getting some traction, it will be great for the World economy if a China trade deal is achieved.

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/arti...as-price-for-phase-one-deal?srnd=premium-asia


----------



## sptrawler (6 November 2019)

Obviously some aren't happy that China is coming to the table.

https://www.smh.com.au/business/the...end-trade-war-with-china-20191106-p537vp.html

You can always find a negative, if you try hard. IMO


----------



## Knobby22 (6 November 2019)

sptrawler said:


> Obviously some aren't happy that China is coming to the table.
> 
> https://www.smh.com.au/business/the...end-trade-war-with-china-20191106-p537vp.html
> 
> You can always find a negative, if you try hard. IMO



The trouble is that China is winning as per Alan Kohler on the ABC tonight and that article.
I don't think the deal will be that good for the USA.


----------



## sptrawler (6 November 2019)

Knobby22 said:


> The trouble is that China is winning as per Alan Kohler on the ABC tonight and that article.
> I don't think the deal will be that good for the USA.



Any deal is better than what was happening IMO, China has been dumping on a global scale for years and no one has had the gonads to call them on it.
What was the alternative? do nothing and have every Countries manufacturing sent to the wall, by subsidised products from China.
It isn't a win/win situation, it is more of a try and slow down the wave, sort of process.
China has enough momentum, that its industrialization wont stop, but they have to be brought under some sort of global umbrella that respects other Countries rights to fair trade and intellectual property.
What has any other leader, other than Trump done about it?


----------



## Jack Aubrey (7 November 2019)

sptrawler said:


> Any deal is better than what was happening IMO, China has been dumping on a global scale for years and no one has had the gonads to call them on it.
> What was the alternative? do nothing and have every Countries manufacturing sent to the wall, by subsidised products from China.
> It isn't a win/win situation, it is more of a try and slow down the wave, sort of process.
> China has enough momentum, that its industrialization wont stop, but they have to be brought under some sort of global umbrella that respects other Countries rights to fair trade and intellectual property.
> What has any other leader, other than Trump done about it?



I am not (yet) convinced Trump has actually *DONE* anything about the underlying problems of currency manipulation, IP theft, tariffs and dumping.  We haven't seen any agreements yet, although I am encouraged by the current delay as that could mean that there are substantive issues involved, rather than just window-dressing.

This dispute has done a lot of damage to world trade (although it has probably been a slight net benefit to Australia so far). I'm not against Trump's disruptive tactics but I see him as a very "transactional" and short-term thinker* more concerned with the domestic political optics that any real and lasting reform.  If he simply does a narrow US/China deal based on particular commodities (eg. allowing more US access to China's markets) he'll effectively be throwing other export countries, like us, under a bus.

The damage to the world trade system will take a long time to repair, particularly if other politicians believe that Trump has been "successful".  Every tin-pot nationalist/populist/protectionist will see opportunities to pick trade fights with "foreigners" to bolster their credentials at home.  That is always a short-term game.

* "thinker" may be the wrong word here, but you get my drift.


----------



## SirRumpole (7 November 2019)

sptrawler said:


> It looks as though Trumps tarrifs are getting some traction, it will be great for the World economy if a China trade deal is achieved.
> 
> https://www.bloomberg.com/news/arti...as-price-for-phase-one-deal?srnd=premium-asia




It will be a deal between China and the US and everyone else will pick up the dregs.


----------



## sptrawler (7 November 2019)

Jack Aubrey said:


> I am not (yet) convinced Trump has actually *DONE* anything about the underlying problems of currency manipulation, IP theft, tariffs and dumping.  We haven't seen any agreements yet, although I am encouraged by the current delay as that could mean that there are substantive issues involved, rather than just window-dressing.
> 
> This dispute has done a lot of damage to world trade (although it has probably been a slight net benefit to Australia so far). I'm not against Trump's disruptive tactics but I see him as a very "transactional" and short-term thinker* more concerned with the domestic political optics that any real and lasting reform.  If he simply does a narrow US/China deal based on particular commodities (eg. allowing more US access to China's markets) he'll effectively be throwing other export countries, like us, under a bus.
> 
> ...



I agree with your sentiment, however I am a strong believer that the Lima accord has over reached its intention in the case of China, China has the manufacturing capability and political structure to send all first World Countries manufacturing broke. 
It has increased the living standards for China, which is great, but there has to come a time where they cut back their growth to allow World industry balance to recover. That can either be done by agreement, or by increasing the value of China's currency, neither of which China wanted to do.
So in my opinion, Trump is trying to do what no other Country would be able to do and until him the U.S.A didn't have the stomach for.
It should be remembered that most of the big multi nationals are American and are making a lot of money from offshoring their manufacturing to China, they wont be happy with Trump and as can be seen by the media coverage they have a lot of leverage.
Anyway only my opinion and it's worth what it costs.


----------



## sptrawler (7 November 2019)

Correction to the previous post it should read Lima Agreement, not Lima Accord. 
Too many meetings in Lima.


----------



## sptrawler (10 November 2019)

Well it looks as though Trump has made progress.

https://www.abc.net.au/news/2019-11...street-record-highs/11684878?section=business


----------



## sptrawler (10 November 2019)

Or maybe not. 

https://www.theage.com.au/business/...tariffs-on-chinese-goods-20191109-p538z2.html
From the article:
_Trump has used tariffs on billions of dollars of Chinese goods as his primary weapon in the protracted trade war, which is aimed at forcing major changes in China's trade and industrial policies. The United States is demanding that China end the theft and forced transfer of American intellectual property and curb subsidies to state-owned enterprises, while granting US companies more access to China's markets. Trump also wants China to vastly increase its purchases of US farm products.

The "phase one" trade deal would largely address farm purchases, access to China's financial services market and improve copyright and trademark protections in China. More difficult technology transfer issues, subsidies and cybersecurity rules would be left to future negotiations.

White House trade adviser Peter Navarro, one of the Trump administration's loudest anti-China voices, lashed out at journalists on Friday in an e-mail, accusing them of being "played" by Chinese "propagandists" who were falsely stating that the two sides had agreed to cancel tariffs in phases.


Navarro complained that too many reports relied on anonymous sources and said only Trump and US Trade Representative Robert Lighthizer should be quoted on stories about the China trade negotiations_.


----------



## sptrawler (14 January 2020)

It looks as though the trade war has had the desired effect on China's manufacturing, rather than reverse engineering other people's R & D they have started doing their own.
This trade war, could have a huge impact on technological progress, if both superpowers invest in R & D, progress will be accelerated on all technology fronts. IMO
I wonder if Trump will get any credit.

https://www.theage.com.au/business/...up-chinese-entrepreneurs-20200113-p53r3s.html


----------



## sptrawler (15 January 2020)

https://www.straitstimes.com/world/...on-chinese-imports-for-now-treasury-secretary
From the article:
_The United States will maintain tariffs on Chinese goods until the completion of a second phase of a United States-China trade agreement, US Treasury Secretary Steven Mnuchin said on Tuesday (Jan 14), a day before the two sides are to sign an interim deal.

He also said that the Phase One deal will be fully enforceable, including a pledge by China to refrain from manipulating its currency.
China committed to purchase US$200 billion (S$270 billion) of additional US goods and services over the next two years under the agreement, he said, adding that US companies and farmers could reap further gains once structural reforms were tackled in a Phase Two agreement.
After the Phase 1 deal was reached last month, Washington agreed to suspend tariffs on US$160 billion (S$215 billion) in Chinese-made cellphones, laptop computers and other goods that were due to take effect on Dec 15, and to halve existing tariffs on US$120 billion of other goods to 7.5 per cent. It kept in place 25 per cent tariffs on US$250 billion of other Chinese goods_.


----------



## tinhat (15 January 2020)

If the news is correct and the phase one trade deal is largely comprised of an agrarian socialist deal (Chinese guaranteed purchases of US farm commodities) to curry favour with US primary producers then that is not going to be good for Australian farmers, especially on-top of already difficult circumstances domestically with the drought and disruptions caused by the bushfire (climate) emergency.

I wonder if there is anything in the bilateral US-Australia trade deal that deals with such circumstances.


----------



## sptrawler (15 January 2020)

One would think that Australia will entwine its trade deals with like minded Countries, the problem I see at the moment, is the rising economies are overtaking the established economies, but the rising economies are not passing on the benefits to the masses.
That is a bit general, but it seems to be able to applied, to several emerging economies.


----------



## Jack Aubrey (16 January 2020)

sptrawler said:


> One would think that Australia will entwine its trade deals with like minded Countries, the problem I see at the moment, is the rising economies are overtaking the established economies, but the rising economies are not passing on the benefits to the masses.
> That is a bit general, but it seems to be able to applied, to several emerging economies.



Not sure about recent wealth distribution in developing countries but the last couple of decades have seen enormous growth in the middle class in both China and India.  That growth has driven both property prices and the education industry in Australia.  At the same time, the middle is being hollowed out in the US, UK and Europe and current policies would have the same effect longer-term here.

I'm sitting on the fence about the "Stage 1" trade deal.  It does seem very much focused on "quid pro quo" deals on bilateral goods and services, rather than being rules based.  Reported deals about currency manipulation and technology are promising. We'll have to see what emerges with the remaining phases, but I'm not sure the benefits of this stage would outweigh the costs incurred so far.


----------



## sptrawler (16 January 2020)

Jack Aubrey said:


> Not sure about recent wealth distribution in developing countries but the last couple of decades have seen enormous growth in the middle class in both China and India.  That growth has driven both property prices and the education industry in Australia.  At the same time, the middle is being hollowed out in the US, UK and Europe and current policies would have the same effect longer-term here.



I was more referring to any form of social welfare being developed in the Countries, the middle class is definitely increasing as can be seen by the amount of Indian and Chinese tourists when travelling O/S, however I'm yet to read anything regarding any form of social welfare system being enacted in these countries.



Jack Aubrey said:


> I'm sitting on the fence about the "Stage 1" trade deal.  It does seem very much focused on "quid pro quo" deals on bilateral goods and services, rather than being rules based.  Reported deals about currency manipulation and technology are promising. We'll have to see what emerges with the remaining phases, but I'm not sure the benefits of this stage would outweigh the costs incurred so far.



I agree with you, but it has to start somewhere, some progress is a lot further than where it was 5 years ago, China has had rampant growth which is great.
But that growth has to a certain degree, been at the cost of manufacturing in other Countries, there is no point in China making everyone else poor,  who would then buy their gear?


----------

