# XAO---Im about to change into my SHORTS



## tech/a (29 March 2005)

There are a number of indicators telling us that this is an important high thats just been completed.
Im seriously considering my long term positions and am beginning to like Waynes shorting methodologies in the year to come.More will unfold soon.

This is just one such interesting "coincidence."!!??


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## RichKid (29 March 2005)

*Re: XAO---Im about to change into my SHORTS.*

I'm looking to short it too (xjo for me), started checking it out after the fall through the lower trend support (my trendline was in between your last two trend lines Tech) last week. Just did some 'drawing' this morning. Didn't notice the high/low measure you observed- very interesting count. If it doesn't bounce up temporarily to form a shoulder and closes below 4075 tomorrow I'm short all the way to around 3450. Eitherway not looking good for the next few months.

A retracement tool would be ideal for this situation using Fibonacci levels etc, not that I'm any good at it but it would be a good guide for trading the short side, if it falls.


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## doctorj (29 March 2005)

*Re: XAO---Im about to change into my SHORTS.*

A close below the line and I'm off to hire a bear costume.


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## RichKid (29 March 2005)

*Re: XAO---Im about to change into my SHORTS.*

Funny how each of us draw the trend lines and support levels differently- that's what makes a market- different views, although we are more or less in agreement here.

Next question- how are each of you hoping to trade this? Or is it just an exercise to get an idea of general market direction? 

Some methods: short the actual big blue chips that are in the index (either directly or via derivatives), use index warrants, futures.

Maybe we should also start a thread on midcap and bluechip stocks to short? Anyone game??


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## doctorj (29 March 2005)

*Re: XAO---Im about to change into my SHORTS.*

I've not had much luck trying to start discussion threads, but I'm game.

My experience in shorting is very limited, so it may prove to be a learning exercise for me.  

When we start to talk about the prospect of shorting, CFDs strike me as an inviting means of easily going short.  I'd be interested in your comments.


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## RichKid (29 March 2005)

*Re: XAO---Im about to change into my SHORTS.*



			
				doctorj said:
			
		

> I've not had much luck trying to start discussion threads, but I'm game.
> 
> My experience in shorting is very limited, so it may prove to be a learning exercise for me.
> 
> When we start to talk about the prospect of shorting, CFDs strike me as an inviting means of easily going short.  I'd be interested in your comments.




Doc,
Haven't gone into CFD's yet, need to get my standard trading going well first. You can just use Comsec for shorting these days (via put options, warrants)- derivatives give you flexibility and you don't need a CFD platform for that but it is versatile once you know how to use them properly (which I don't, but CFD's are on my 'need to learn about' list, just not a big priority atm). There was a fairly good thread on CFD's somewhere here on ASF, from about six months ago. It's very risky for the uninitiated. The good news for us is if this falls there'll be time to get in on the action as there's a long way to go before strong support.

(Here's the CFD thread:
https://www.aussiestockforums.com/forums/showthread.php?t=769&highlight=contracts+difference )


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## doctorj (29 March 2005)

*Re: XAO---Im about to change into my SHORTS.*

I'll have to set commsec up for derivatives.  

I agree that CFDs will require a lot of research before trading.  There are several fantastic threads on CFDs at Reefcap.

As a small aside, today marks the third big down day for XAO in a row.  Perhaps a 3 day bounce is one the cards - though the article in the AFR today about the growing possibility of one or two 50pb rises by the fed is worrisome.


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## RichKid (29 March 2005)

*Re: XAO---Im about to change into my SHORTS.*



			
				doctorj said:
			
		

> I'll have to set commsec up for derivatives.




Doc,
You'll need to do some paperwork for that, might take a few days or more so keep it in mind. I don't use comsec for options, mainly warrants or if there are co issued options I trade those.

I started the shorting thread in the ASX stock chat forum: https://www.aussiestockforums.com/forums/showthread.php?p=9377#post9377


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## DTM (30 March 2005)

*Re: XAO---Im about to change into my SHORTS.*

I've changed into my shorts already.  Looking at blue chip stocks because am hoping that they will fall faster.

Surf's up, time to catch those waves.  



 :bowser: 


Happy trading.


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## markrmau (30 March 2005)

*Re: XAO---Im about to change into my SHORTS.*

I think you may have just missed the boat to short XJO, and people are thinking of unwinding these postions. OTOH, bhp seems to have been heavily sold off.


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## markrmau (30 March 2005)

*Re: XAO---Im about to change into my SHORTS.*



			
				markrmau said:
			
		

> OTOH, bhp seems to have been heavily sold off.



, but wouldn't puts be pretty expensive by now? Difficult to make money here?


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## tech/a (30 March 2005)

*Re: XAO---Im about to change into my SHORTS.*

There is one form of analysis that is predictive and I have found pretty accurate particularly if the analysis is by an experienced exponent.

Nick Radge of Reefcap and Maquarie Bank has spent many years plying his skills in this form of analysis.

ELLIOT WAVE.
He is pretty spot on and through the industry has contact with other ace exponents of the analysis.

I asked him his veiw on the wave count for the ORDS.
This was his reply.

*The best interpretation at the moment is that we're in the wave 5. My data only goes back to 1952, but someone I know has it back to 1900 also says its wave-5. This is best interpreted using a semi log chart

If this is a wave-5 then we could expect a multi year decline back to 2600 - 2800, else 2200 - 2400 is also possible. If this is wave-(1) then usually the wave-(2) tends to retrace 50% - 61.8%. They're calling the S&P back to 440 - its currently trading at 1177...*

Pretty ominous!
Most are calling this "The " top only one I know is predicting a further higher high as a possibility.His cycle analysis is another I respect as well, you maybe interested in reading his analysis.

http://www.reefcap.com/ubb/Forum1/HTML/001509.html

Ive always been one for letting the price action govern my trading.
Ill be watching any up move very carefully and if a lower high is made and a further lower low then is created I will be selling out of ALL long positions.
This could happen in April.

As the correction is likely to be sustained then Ill be looking at short positions.

Just my veiws under advice from people whos analysis I respect.


tech


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## el_ninj0 (30 March 2005)

*Re: XAO---Im about to change into my SHORTS.*

Ive been waiting for this to happen for sometime now tech/a, and I have to say I agree with Mr Waves predictions aswell. I dont believe it will go back as far as he sugests, however i do think it will fall back to atleast 3500. But because of the strong demand from china at this stage for both energy and resources, and the declinging supply of oil/ergy, I dont think we will see a large fall in these areas.


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## DTM (1 April 2005)

*Re: XAO---Im about to change into my SHORTS.*

I've just added SUN on my list of stocks to go down.  So far the list for puts are SUN, BIL, CCL, NWS.


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## money tree (1 April 2005)

*Re: XAO---Im about to change into my SHORTS.*

market is now 80 points off its low

be careful shorts


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## DTM (6 April 2005)

*Re: XAO---Im about to change into my SHORTS.*

Anyone getting that sinking feeling?

XJO down 20 points with 20 minutes to go.


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## markrmau (6 April 2005)

*Re: XAO---Im about to change into my SHORTS.*

You beat me to it LOL.

Paradoxically, the market doesn't like the rates not going up today - thinking perhaps there is a lack of confidence in forward direction of economy.


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## RichKid (6 April 2005)

*Re: XAO---Im about to change into my SHORTS.*

Testing minor support levels atm, a big drop in the last half of today. XJO bounced off 4100, if trend continues it'll fall through it tomorrow but a new day is hard to predict as there is so much volatility at the start of the day and that could change the trend. Volumes aren't flash. Could this be the lower top or just a start before another lower top?


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## wayneL (6 April 2005)

*Re: XAO---Im about to change into my SHORTS.*



			
				markrmau said:
			
		

> You beat me to it LOL.
> 
> Paradoxically, the market doesn't like the rates not going up today - thinking perhaps there is a lack of confidence in forward direction of economy.




Bugger!

Gutless bastids shoulda jacked rates! 

Currency traders have reacted negatively... though only mildly so. Could see a weakening AUD.


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## money tree (6 April 2005)

*Re: XAO---Im about to change into my SHORTS.*

eur bond auction shows big demand for high yields
result - nzd rallies


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## DTM (15 April 2005)

*Re: XAO---Im about to change into my SHORTS.*



			
				DTM said:
			
		

> Anyone getting that sinking feeling?
> 
> XJO down 20 points with 20 minutes to go.




Looks like its official shorting season.  Hope you catch that wave.


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## DTM (15 April 2005)

*Re: XAO---Im about to change into my SHORTS.*

XJO looks ugly for the last hour of trading.  Looks like it will drop some more and will carry on through to monday.


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## GreatPig (16 April 2005)

*Re: XAO---Im about to change into my SHORTS.*

Getting back to some basic technical analysis, what we see in the XAO (and many of the other indices as well) is a classic head and shoulders reversal. Target downside by my measurements is around 3900.

Cheers,
GP


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## RichKid (16 April 2005)

*Re: XAO---Im about to change into my SHORTS.*



			
				GreatPig said:
			
		

> Getting back to some basic technical analysis, what we see in the XAO (and many of the other indices as well) is a classic head and shoulders reversal. Target downside by my measurements is around 3900.
> 
> Cheers,
> GP




Nice work GP, I wonder if it'll pullback to retest the neckline? If it fails on that attempt it'll be the surest signal to short imo. I also drew another more horizontal neckline lower than yours but we're splitting hairs here, it clearly has broken support.


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## GreatPig (17 April 2005)

*Re: XAO---Im about to change into my SHORTS.*

Next major support seems to be at 3900 as well, followed perhaps by about 3840 and then around 3690. After that, nothing major until around 3500.

If it does take a while to get down to 3900 it could be interesting. It might then meet the longer-term trend line at around that value, in which case would it then turn back up and follow the shallower up-trend again or slice through it like the proverbial hot knife through butter and keep on falling?

My XAO data only goes back to late 2001, so I can't see where an even longer-term trend line might be.

Cheers,
GP


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## DTM (21 April 2005)

*Re: XAO---Im about to change into my SHORTS.*

Today could be one of those scary days.  XJO down 30 points in first ten minutes.


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## el_ninj0 (21 April 2005)

*Re: XAO---Im about to change into my SHORTS.*



			
				DTM said:
			
		

> Today could be one of those scary days.  XJO down 30 points in first ten minutes.




We are seeing a slight come back at the moment though, I think it could close this afternoon between 10-20 in the red.


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## tech/a (5 May 2005)

*Re: XAO---Im about to change into my SHORTS.*

Well today it found its bottom.

The key reversal indicates some bullish trading for a while.Which will be welcomed by any who are still long.


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## el_ninj0 (5 May 2005)

*Re: XAO---Im about to change into my SHORTS.*



			
				tech/a said:
			
		

> Well today it found its bottom.
> 
> The key reversal indicates some bullish trading for a while.Which will be welcomed by any who are still long.




Could I ask what makes you think its the bottom? Mabey in the form of a chart please?, 

Danke.


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## Smurf1976 (5 May 2005)

*Re: XAO---Im about to change into my SHORTS.*



			
				tech/a said:
			
		

> Well today it found its bottom.
> 
> The key reversal indicates some bullish trading for a while.Which will be welcomed by any who are still long.



We seem to disagree on some other things but I think you're pretty spot on here tech/a.  

Next question is how long and how far the rally... I'm thinking it might be substantial (back near the high) but that's from a non-T/A assessment.


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## WaySolid (5 May 2005)

*Re: XAO---Im about to change into my SHORTS.*



			
				Smurf1976 said:
			
		

> We seem to disagree on some other things but I think you're pretty spot on here tech/a.
> 
> Next question is how long and how far the rally... I'm thinking it might be substantial (back near the high) but that's from a non-T/A assessment.



My thoughts exactly Smurf. In fact I would go further than you and state that I see a lot more heat in the ASX (5000!), with the proviso that the American economy can prevent a meltdown long enough. I'm very bullish with my thoughts (and dollars) on the ASX.

Every man and his dog is negative on equities at the moment and yet the 'correction' is so far less than 10%.

Just like the recent property boom was unprecedented in it's length I can see a similar experience with a bull market in equities as baby boomer and super money continues to seeks higher yield over the next 5 years. Also there is the Chinese consumption beast to feed.

So I'm not one of the people hiding gold ingots under their mattress... At least not quite yet anyhow.

Just my own thoughts


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## TjamesX (6 May 2005)

*Re: XAO---Im about to change into my SHORTS.*

The US market seems to be holding up, and I think for Aus it could be the right time for the right companies who have taken a fall in the recent correction.

Correct me if i'm wrong - Aus market is still trading at a lower PE overall than US.

I think I will put in some orders for BHP tonight - im pretty sure it will gap up on opening. I will probably hold at least until their next report showing all their profits from contracts already written.

Do your own research - but I would be staying away from any cyclical/consumer discretionary stocks, the amount of profit downgrades has surprised me, surely there will be more to come. However there may be some value in ones that have already taken the beating.....

TJ


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## markrmau (6 May 2005)

*Re: XAO---Im about to change into my SHORTS.*



			
				TjamesX said:
			
		

> The US market seems to be holding up,




Unless something calamitous happens, like GM bonds being downgraded to junk status...

http://www.marketwatch.com/news/sto...546-4050-ABD5-2AEC0A628B1D}&siteid=mktw&dist=

(though as stated in article, they were already treated as junk status anyway)

Wouldn't it be nice if Thurdays decoupling of AUS from the US market continued.

Edit: and Ford to junk status !
http://www.nytimes.com/2005/05/05/business/05WIRE-JUNK.html?


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## RichKid (6 May 2005)

*Re: XAO---Im about to change into my SHORTS.*

Geez, I get the impression the bulls are crashing this bear party- but will they get kicked out? Let's see how much buying the fundies really do, they must be worried about the uptrend support breaking, that'll cause a free fall. S&P weak again but has recovered this week. Might be some short term ranging above yesterdays low before another drop imo- chart suggests it'll test 3900 this month. Rising labour and materials costs aren't going to help a lot of people stay profitable, stock picking is the key for the bargain hunters, no point just buying something because it's fallen a lot.


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## Investor (6 May 2005)

*Re: XAO---Im about to change into my SHORTS.*



			
				markrmau said:
			
		

> Unless something calamitous happens, like GM bonds being downgraded to junk status...
> 
> .. and Ford to junk status !




This happened overnight. GM and Ford Bonds are now junk status.


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## markrmau (6 May 2005)

*Re: XAO---Im about to change into my SHORTS.*

I'm don't believe in all this conspiracy rubbish (like the PPT), but something smells fishy here. The day before S&P downgrades GM bonds to junk status, some billionaire offers to buy stake of GM at 10% premium to market valuation.


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## wayneL (6 May 2005)

*Re: XAO---Im about to change into my SHORTS.*

The PPT is real.

I've actually seen the US government website.

And if pressed hard enough I'll just have to finf that wegsite again.


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## wayneL (6 May 2005)

*Re: XAO---Im about to change into my SHORTS.*



			
				markrmau said:
			
		

> I'm don't believe in all this conspiracy rubbish (like the PPT),




Go to google and type in - Executive Order 12631

Cheers


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## tech/a (6 May 2005)

*Re: XAO---Im about to change into my SHORTS.*

iiii


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## clowboy (6 May 2005)

*Re: XAO---Im about to change into my SHORTS.*

Tech/A

Just to clarify for me.....

Are you saying that on a T/A basis you think the market is going to start heading north again?

Thanx


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## tech/a (6 May 2005)

*Re: XAO---Im about to change into my SHORTS.*

I thought yesterday was a low and that was confirmed today.

If there is a break of the current down trend and new highs are made
EG above around 4032 then I would say that things are no longer bearish.

However I do think there is a strong chance that the index may fall into a range as the DOW has

This could be bound around 3900 to 4250.

Of course if the low or high of 4250 is taken out then we have a resumption of bull or bear.

Fantastic another technical explaination that goes around in a circle!!


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## DTM (6 May 2005)

*Re: XAO---Im about to change into my SHORTS.*



			
				tech/a said:
			
		

> Fantastic another technical explaination that goes around in a circle!!




Better than having no explanation at all.  

It prepares people mentally for what to expect, and even if its wrong, it may make them decisive rather than sit, wait and hope.


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## tech/a (6 May 2005)

*Re: XAO---Im about to change into my SHORTS.*



			
				DTM said:
			
		

> and even if its wrong





Ive been sitting here trying to work out a scenario that could occur that would make my circular analysis wrong!


Nahh cant find one---technical anaysis at its best ---even if I do say so myself.


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## tech/a (12 May 2005)

*XAO*

Just an update cant find the original discussion on the ASX


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## WaySolid (12 May 2005)

*Re: XAO*

The overnight SPI is now at 4030 so I'm not sure what lines that is breaking if any.

I'm watching very carefully to get a better read on the mid term future of the ASX. With 'super choice' not far away and my own personal view on the cash floating around in our economy; I will not be surprised to see the ASX test the March highs before too long.

Just my 2c worth, and my 2c are where my mouth is in this case.


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## RichKid (12 May 2005)

*Re: XAO*



			
				tech/a said:
			
		

> Just an update cant find the original discussion on the ASX




Tech,
I've merged your thread with the old one as you can see, I just used the search tool and type in XAO as I had trouble finding it too- it had slipped back a bit. Hope this helps, we're in the process of tidying up some of the forums as things are begining to get a bit busy again.

As for the chart, it's slow and steady moves imo, very cautious, let's see if it can sustain this initial break.


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## DTM (13 May 2005)

*Re: XAO---Im about to change into my SHORTS.*

XAO down 26 points, XJO 30 points in first hour today.  Looks like we're heading into free fall territory again.  

I had a down direction for the markets but I would like to know the reason.


Anyone know the cause?


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## tech/a (13 May 2005)

*Re: XAO---Im about to change into my SHORTS.*

DJIA down 110.
Apathy to the budget.

Victoria and David Beckham are fighting again.
I lost my keys this morning.


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## DTM (13 May 2005)

*Re: XAO---Im about to change into my SHORTS.*



			
				tech/a said:
			
		

> DJIA down 110.
> Apathy to the budget.
> 
> Victoria and David Beckham are fighting again.
> I lost my keys this morning.




Ha ha ha ha..... LOL  Very funny!!!

It's very important to keep one's sense of humour in times like these.

Tech/A, I've been trying to find your suggestions on how to select stocks to short without any luck.  Could you post it again for those of us here who are interested in shorting stocks?

Thanks in  advance.


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## Investor (13 May 2005)

*Re: XAO---Im about to change into my SHORTS.*



			
				DTM said:
			
		

> XAO down 26 points, XJO 30 points in first hour today.  Looks like we're heading into free fall territory again.
> 
> I had a down direction for the markets but I would like to know the reason.
> 
> ...




Apart from the reasons that were stated, it is Friday, the 13th   

Also, the dog ate my homework.


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## DTM (13 May 2005)

*Re: XAO---Im about to change into my SHORTS.*

Its 1.30pm and the XJO, XAO seem to have stabilised but I get this ominous 

feeling that its going to drop again.


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## Investor (13 May 2005)

*Re: XAO---Im about to change into my SHORTS.*

Yes. It is hard to read at the moment. 

What happens this afternoon could depend on whether local fund managers place some more of that stash of cash that they are sitting on, because the selling by foreigners could have gone through the system this morning (but this is merely my conjecture).

Friday the 13th.....do not go out into the woods tonight....


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## DTM (13 May 2005)

*Re: XAO---Im about to change into my SHORTS.*

Wow.  What a ride.  The market (XJO) rebounded 20 points in the last hour or so from a low of 3991.


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## Aussiejeff (13 May 2005)

*Re: XAO---Im about to change into my SHORTS.*

Funny. The last few "up" days for the XAO were a bummer for me as I have been holding a sizeable batch of UTB, which due to bloody annoying circumstances (not entirely beyond my control) I was unable to dump at their peak in March - and which have of course been falling like the proverbial ever since!

So, let me say that today was a VG DAY for AJ!!! Managed to sell out my accumulated $20,000 paper loss with UTB to now less than $3000. The sound of all that extra crinkly cash in the Piggy Bank sounds rather nice ATM...even if it was at break-even after fees for the shares traded - *wipes sweat from brow and retires to games room with chilled glass of Chateau Cardeborde to continue tossing darts blindfolded at genuine A.C.M.E. "Shares To Buy" Dart Board *

;o)

Happy trading,

AJ


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## Investor (13 May 2005)

*Re: XAO---Im about to change into my SHORTS.*

3,776,666 shares in ZFX were traded today at a price range of $2.83 to $2.88.

Watch for ZFX's announcement on Monday as to how many shares it bought today.

If 200,000 or less were bought by ZFX, all traders take note.......

Shorting this stock is as close to a "done deal" as you can get. However, make your own decision, as I cannot give any financial advice.


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## Smurf1976 (13 May 2005)

*Re: XAO---Im about to change into my SHORTS.*



			
				Investor said:
			
		

> 3,776,666 shares in ZFX were traded today at a price range of $2.83 to $2.88.
> 
> Watch for ZFX's announcement on Monday as to how many shares it bought today.
> 
> ...



Careful there Investor, the idea of shorting ZFX might ruffle some Chicken feathers  

Sorry Chicken but I couldn't resist... All intended in good humor  

By the way I spent much of the day lost in the bush around Bedlam Walls which gives an absolutely stunning view of Zinifex Hobart Smelter looking from across the river. Pity I couldn't find the walking track though.


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## RichKid (13 May 2005)

*Re: XAO---Im about to change into my SHORTS.*

The Banks, mate, when they go it'll be the proverbial hair that broke the camels back, very short term I also see gold and oil low so corresponding stocks will be hit imo- see my charts elsewhere on ASF. Great buying opportunities in specific sectors not too far away but I'm short for now (possibly till June). Sell in May and go away.


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## RichKid (13 May 2005)

*Re: XAO---Im about to change into my SHORTS.*



			
				DTM said:
			
		

> Wow.  What a ride.  The market (XJO) rebounded 20 points in the last hour or so from a low of 3991.




That end of day buying is probably the fundies punting on this being near the bottom, dumb money is supposed to be spread around way before the last hour, in theory. How long can this market be propped up? I'd like to see some figures for fundies cash holdings atm.


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## Smurf1976 (15 May 2005)

*Re: XAO---Im about to change into my SHORTS.*



			
				RichKid said:
			
		

> That end of day buying is probably the fundies punting on this being near the bottom, dumb money is supposed to be spread around way before the last hour, in theory. How long can this market be propped up? I'd like to see some figures for fundies cash holdings atm.



Over the short term, do you think the funds are right? Up on Monday???   Dow was down Friday night so I guess that makes it less likely but a positive sign if the ASX does go up or at least flat.


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## ob1kenobi (15 May 2005)

*Re: XAO---Im about to change into my SHORTS.*

Some interesting statistics.

Company Data  

Company Name: Australia ASX ALL ORDINARIES 

Exchange: Sydney ASX 

52-Week High: 4,255.80 on Monday, March 21, 2005 

52-Week Low: 3,346.80 on Tuesday, May 18, 2004 

Average Price: 4,083.37 (50-day)   3,911.83 (200-day) 

Looking at the chart for 1 year and then 5 year and then analysing the data, it's reasonable to assume that the XAO will hover around the 3900 mark, possibly dipping to 3700. Obviously it will have its good days but that would be my expectation at the moment, particularly given that we are in the reporting season and there are a number of external factors still at play or yet to be factored in. Either go short or be very patient.


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## DTM (16 May 2005)

*Re: XAO---Im about to change into my SHORTS.*

The XJO was down 50 points 30 minutes before todays close.

That's a huge move with enough momentum to continue on through tomorrow.

Buyers beware!!!! :goodnight


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## markrmau (18 May 2005)

*Re: XAO---Im about to change into my SHORTS.*

Well the SPI contract has made a higher low. Maybe a higher high will be forthcoming (especially once the confession season ends). We shall see.


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## tech/a (24 May 2005)

*Re: XAO---Im about to change into my SHORTS.*

Spot on Mark.
---Looking forward a bit.--


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## Aussiejeff (24 May 2005)

*Re: XAO---Im about to change into my SHORTS.*

Hehe.

Your SHORTS are starting to look a bit tatty of late, Tech/a.

Interesting few weeks ahead ... can the upside continue to 4100? 

Cheers,

AJ


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## tech/a (24 May 2005)

*Re: XAO---Im about to change into my SHORTS.*

Hey I dont mind.
The way things are going I maybe able to buy a new pair!


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## DTM (31 May 2005)

*Re: XAO---Im about to change into my SHORTS.*

Hmmm....  I think its down time again.  Look for the retracement of the last rise.

Time to go short again I think.


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## doctorj (31 May 2005)

*Re: XAO---Im about to change into my SHORTS.*

Could the market be waiting for direction from the US and Europe tonight after the public holiday yesterday?


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## DTM (31 May 2005)

*Re: XAO---Im about to change into my SHORTS.*

XJO dropped 37 points from today's high.  Thats pretty impressive.  The Dow looks weak to me too and I think it will fall tonight.  

Today's fall could continue on through tomorrow and we could be heading into freefall country again.


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## ob1kenobi (1 June 2005)

*Re: XAO---Im about to change into my SHORTS.*



			
				DTM said:
			
		

> XJO dropped 37 points from today's high. Thats pretty impressive. The Dow looks weak to me too and I think it will fall tonight.
> 
> Today's fall could continue on through tomorrow and we could be heading into freefall country again.




I wasn't surprised. I suggested on Sunday night that it was due for a fall. See 

https://www.aussiestockforums.com/forums/showthread.php?t=1418ised.

I agree, I think it is still weak, with issues like Multiplex, poor BOP figures, etc not helping. Lets see what happens.


----------



## Investor (1 June 2005)

*Re: XAO---Im about to change into my SHORTS.*

Shorts - but it's winter.  

Winter sales are on. Bargain hunting season. Just be careful what you buy. Caveat emptor.


----------



## DTM (1 June 2005)

*Re: XAO---Im about to change into my SHORTS.*

Wow.  What a wave.  XJO up 42 points.  Back to where we were yesterday???  

Seems like the Fundies are moving back into the market.


----------



## Investor (1 June 2005)

*Re: XAO---Im about to change into my SHORTS.*

Yes, a good day. Could be a tussle between fundies buying and foreigners selling in the days ahead, but I am merely guessing.


----------



## TjamesX (1 June 2005)

*Re: XAO---Im about to change into my SHORTS.*

The sentiment has definitly changed towards the XAO. How long it will last is? My crystal ball has a hunch that it will muddle around a bit for a while with a new high before 2005 is over - but those waiting for the 'real' correction may be left holding their breath for a while. The market has corrected and got rid of the excesses in many SP's.

I am still very bearish towards the Aussie economy medium term. We have seen the tip with profit downgrades in consumer related stocks.

The last run up it was time to sell consumer discretionary and property related stocks. I think the next run up will be the time to sell banks (I don't like these longer term).

and remember none of this matters as it all hinges on what the US does - note their position in the property cycle is delayed related to Aus, people over there are still seeing their properties rise in value, hence they still feel very wealthy despit their debt.

TJ


----------



## Battman64 (1 June 2005)

*Re: XAO---Im about to change into my SHORTS.*

The fifth year of the decade is known as the "Ascension year"
We are expecting another high before the year is out.
Presently I feel that we are a little overbought.
The month of May has once again given us some great trading opportunities.


----------



## DTM (7 June 2005)

*Re: XAO---Im about to change into my SHORTS.*

I think that it could be time to go short again.  

Last couple of days has been unconvincing except for resource stocks maybe.  

Banks seemed to have peaked so Banks may trigger the next drop.

Just my thoughts...


----------



## WaySolid (7 June 2005)

*Re: XAO---Im about to change into my SHORTS.*



			
				DTM said:
			
		

> I think that it could be time to go short again.
> 
> Last couple of days has been unconvincing except for resource stocks maybe.
> 
> ...



I'm long the June SPI; 4 contracts average 4204. Longer term view is I want to catch the longer term view which I still see as very positive, bigger stops (while keeping acceptable % risk), longer holds till I can build a larger position. 

Interested in what your positions are?


----------



## Smurf1976 (7 June 2005)

*Re: XAO---Im about to change into my SHORTS.*



			
				DTM said:
			
		

> I think that it could be time to go short again.
> 
> Last couple of days has been unconvincing except for resource stocks maybe.
> 
> ...



I seem to be hearing more and more evidence of economic weakness over the past week especially.

Job ads down, Sydney house prices down, retail seems to be getting hit hard, oil's up to $54 again. The broad trend of economic weakness seems to extend beyond Australia from what I can tell. 

Quite a few T/A and money supply type analysts seem willing to call a top in the US markets.

In short, I think the ASX is headed lower but the question is from what point? Could we see a retest (fail) of the March high? Just a thought.


----------



## DTM (7 June 2005)

*Re: XAO---Im about to change into my SHORTS.*



			
				WaySolid said:
			
		

> I'm long the June SPI; 4 contracts average 4204. Longer term view is I want to catch the longer term view which I still see as very positive, bigger stops (while keeping acceptable % risk), longer holds till I can build a larger position.
> 
> Interested in what your positions are?




Put Options on MBL, CBA and ANZ.



			
				Smurf1976 said:
			
		

> I seem to be hearing more and more evidence of economic weakness over the past week especially.
> 
> Job ads down, Sydney house prices down, retail seems to be getting hit hard, oil's up to $54 again. The broad trend of economic weakness seems to extend beyond Australia from what I can tell.
> 
> ...




Music to my ears Smurf....


----------



## WaySolid (8 June 2005)

*Re: XAO---Im about to change into my SHORTS.*



			
				DTM said:
			
		

> Put Options on MBL, CBA and ANZ.
> 
> 
> 
> Music to my ears Smurf....



I tend to feed my bias as well, a danger when trading as the market doesn't appear to care what I think.

My thinking and money is that this economic news is really old news and the negativity in the US to equities in particular has hardly seemed to dent the market. Over the course of the next 5 years I can see huge upside in asset classes returning yield such as quality shares.

This is a demographic trend pushed by China and the boomers and could be of little solace if you aren't able to make money out of it.

It's also possible to be right in your view and still lose money trading though.


----------



## DTM (9 June 2005)

*Re: XAO---Im about to change into my SHORTS.*

Banks starting to look weak now.  

The US markets teetering on the brink.  Tomorrow will be interesting.


----------



## Aussiejeff (10 June 2005)

*Re: XAO---Im about to change into my SHORTS.*

DTM ...

Amazing the change in sentiment a few hours makes. US markets now positive after upbeat economic news overnight.

So today UP instead of DOWN?

;o)

Cheers,

AJ


----------



## DTM (10 June 2005)

*Re: XAO---Im about to change into my SHORTS.*



			
				Aussiejeff said:
			
		

> DTM ...
> 
> Amazing the change in sentiment a few hours makes. US markets now positive after upbeat economic news overnight.
> 
> ...




Still very bearish myself.  Greenspan's comments twice saved the US market from falling, but the upwards movmement were very weak.  I'm still expecting it to fall because the pressure has been building up to go down.  Tonight could be the start... 

And then there's oil going up which has the effect of lowering the US markets.  

Just a short matter of time I think...  

Not advice, just my views.


----------



## Aussiejeff (10 June 2005)

*Re: XAO---Im about to change into my SHORTS.*

DTM,

You thoughts are welcome anytime. It is logical that for every couple of bulls there HAS to be a bear to keep the lid on the boiling pot... otherwise we would have runaway rampant optimism all the time and where would THAT get us, eh?  hehe...

Cheers and happy trading whether you are in your SHORTS or LONG johns,

AJ


----------



## DTM (10 June 2005)

*Re: XAO---Im about to change into my SHORTS.*



			
				Aussiejeff said:
			
		

> DTM,
> 
> You thoughts are welcome anytime. It is logical that for every couple of bulls there HAS to be a bear to keep the lid on the boiling pot... otherwise we would have runaway rampant optimism all the time and where would THAT get us, eh?  hehe...
> 
> ...




Yes, am in shorts at the moment and feeling left out in the cold (actually feeling the heat).  Will change quickly to my Long Johns though if things don't change...., don't want to miss out on the party.


----------



## Smurf1976 (16 June 2005)

*Re: XAO---Im about to change into my SHORTS.*

Well here we are, back at the all time high. The XAO is just below it whilst the XJO has reached a new intraday high.

But where to next?

Bull case - we just made a new all time intraday high and all seems fine. What do you mean the market's going to do anything other than keep going up? The decline from March to early May was just a correction. There's an argument for a rising stock market based on superannuation changes etc and media reports of declining returns from real estate discouraging that investment alternative.

Bear case - The US continues to pump up interest rates, oil prices are back up despite the USD rally (so they're at record highs in some currencies), majority of the public seems to be bullish, Various indicators seem to be ready to peak (not that I'm an expert on indicators). Even on generally bearish economic forums most seem to view a major stock market downturn as unlikely (but they view all sorts of oil, real estate, currency crashes as far more likely which to me suggests outright complacency towards stocks).

What does everyone think? 

I'm out of the market as of today waiting to see what happens. Personally I don't really know and can see the logic in both views. If forced to choose I wouldn't like to but the bear case does seem a little more convincing to me over the medium term. But that says nothing about tomorrow or next week...

Thoughts? Opinions?


----------



## DTM (16 June 2005)

*Re: XAO---Im about to change into my SHORTS.*

I sold out of most of my puts with CBA, ANZ and MBL.  I've gone bullish on the banking sector and bought calls because it looks like a natural retracement for the banks.  I've left some of my puts in place as insurance in case the market really drops but feel that we will still be heading up.  My thoughts are based on the fact that we didn't lose ground from the opening level.  I will also make an assumption (more like a guess) that the smart money (in the banks) got out today as shown by the high volume within the first 30 minutes of trading.  Now this leaves the silly money ready to jump in (like me for example) ready to drive the market up again.  

Resource stocks like BHP and RIO have broken out and will be interesting to see if they retrace.


----------



## TjamesX (16 June 2005)

*Re: XAO---Im about to change into my SHORTS.*

The shorts are definitly out in the cold at the moment.....

Looking at the chart of the XAO it almost looks like a vertical line from 3900 to todays highs. I'm sceptical because of the fact that we have moved so quickly to the highs without really taking a breather, and IMO the breather will come soon.

As my portfolio sits, I have cashed in some profits over the last week and are currently 35% cash 65% shares (after being 5-10% cash a week ago). The shares I'm holding are mainly resources (BHP) and resource related as well as a couple of LIC's, I'm happy to hold these through any market slips in the medium term. After the last breather/correction and seeing what can happen I think its prudent to lock in some profits, and if your happy with your returns - don't get too cute   

The market isn't getting silly - looking around, most companies that have been touched by profit downgrades have been suitably punished (property, consumer discretionary), these haven't recovered, there's just been a movement of capital to different stocks.

I'm still bearish towards the Aus economy in general over the medium to long term and so have shares allocated in the sectors that will hopefully be least affected. I'm looking to sell my LIC's over the next few months.

The cash I now have will be waiting for some good opportunities with any  market breathers that occur - anyone for XAO 4500 before the end of the year? 

The X factor of the US market is still the overarching factor that will drive sentiment in the AUS market and determine how far we can go before the real downturn. IMO I think this has been put to bed for a while as the US is currently experiencing a huge real estate boom, its a shot in the arm to all debt ridden consumers. Note that we have the benefit of our cycle actually leading the US with regards to house prices - consensus was that the peek for us was around end of 2003 start of 2004, and only now have are we starting to see the profdit downgrades from retail and consumer related companies as consumers tighten their belts.

I reckon pain to come in the longer term....
gain to come in the shorter term....

which really means we're all playing with knives!  

Dow 11000 before 2006??   

Cheers 
TJ


----------



## TjamesX (16 June 2005)

*Re: XAO---Im about to change into my SHORTS.*

Just to illustrate the correlation between real estate booms and economic downturns I have attached the following graph (courtesy of a link from WayneL from a different forum!)

Blue line is house price growth % pa
Red line is unemployment rate %
Yellow bars are times of recession

Have a look at the (inverse)correlation between blue and red lines


----------



## wayneL (16 June 2005)

*Re: XAO---Im about to change into my SHORTS.*

Speaking of unemployment, there is anecdotal evidence of increasing unemployment coming out of the UK. :-O


----------



## tech/a (16 June 2005)

*Re: XAO---Im about to change into my SHORTS.*



			
				TjamesX said:
			
		

> Have a look at the (inverse)correlation between blue and red lines




Makes perfect sence to me.
The Building Sector employes more than any other sector.
As realestate increases in price (Even just before they do) Building approvals soar.
So do renovations.
Unemployment becomes less of an issue infact finding people to do your work is!!
With the downturn----which in SA is negligable un employment will slowly increase.If prices flatten so will the increase in un employment.
Ill bet the government instigated incentive packages around the times of recession to kick start the building industry---like the $15K first home owners grant.


----------



## Smurf1976 (16 June 2005)

*Re: XAO---Im about to change into my SHORTS.*



			
				wayneL said:
			
		

> Speaking of unemployment, there is anecdotal evidence of increasing unemployment coming out of the UK. :-O



Something might be up in Australia too.

I had a good look at the Commonwealth Bank house price data for all of the capital cities. I looked at houses only and used the monthly data rather than the Bank's averaging. 

To the extent that there has been a slowdown it has been most pronounced in Hobart followed by Sydney. Elesewhere is either still rising or is essentially going sideways.

I'm not too sure about NSW but Tasmania's unemployment is up 0.1% in each of the past 4 months. Not huge but it's starting to look like a trend. There is still a lot of house construction going on in Hobart so I hate to think what will happen to unemployment when/if it stops.

Back to the ASX... On another forum they are "discussing" the idea that todday's surge was a sign of exhaustion and it's all down hill from here. The term "exhaustion candle" seems to have popped up. I don't usually take anything on that forum too seriously but just sometimes someone there is right.


----------



## TjamesX (16 June 2005)

*Re: XAO---Im about to change into my SHORTS.*



			
				Smurf1976 said:
			
		

> Back to the ASX... On another forum they are "discussing" the idea that todday's surge was a sign of exhaustion and it's all down hill from here. The term "exhaustion candle" seems to have popped up. I don't usually take anything on that forum too seriously but just sometimes someone there is right.




I'm assuming this is a TA term?

A pullback is probably on the cards, but I reckon a call that we have seen a top in this cycle may be a bit premature - ofcourse everyone is entitled to their own  opinion

But from where I sit, the stength of the move off 3900 has surprised everyone. That wasn't retail money moving the market......

 

TJ


----------



## Smurf1976 (17 June 2005)

*Re: XAO---Im about to change into my SHORTS.*

I have had a look at the charts of 100 of the XJO stocks. This was done in alphabetical order - I was going to do all 200 but a clear trend was emerging and it's nearly midnight...  I started at the beginning (letter A) and stopped at JST.

Method: 6 month OHLC chart. Relative to the price movement over the past 6 months, is the price now (1) at or near a new high (2) at or near previous highs or (3) considerably below the highest prices over the past 6 months. In the case of those at or near highs, I noticed a significant number closed today at or near their low for the day and this was also recorded. Note that I was simply looking at the chart to determine the recent trend and did not do any T/A looking for reversals etc. Nor did I apply strict mathematical criteria - if it's near the top of the chart then that's near a high and vice versa. 

Results (100 stocks):

47 are well below (as viewed on the 6 month chart) their highs.

27 are near but not significantly above previous highs of the past 6 months. Of these, 5 have shown a declining trend recently whilst another 8 experienced a reasonable price range today (as viewed on the chart) and closed at or very near the low for the day.

26 stocks are above previous highs for the past 6 months. However, 10 of these experienced significant price movement today (as viewed on OHLC chart) and closed at or very near their lows for the day.

Now, I am no expert at this but this rally doesn't seem overly convincing to me. Only 16% of the stocks I checked have recently made new highs for the year (but not necessarily all time highs) and didn't close near their lows for the day.

If you applied a mathematical or TA criteria these results might vary a bit - I was simply looking at the charts and noting the recent trends. Not all of the closings near the daily lows would indicate a reversal but the large number (18% of the total) closing near the day's lows on a day that the market reached new all time highs did catch my attention. Those with some more T/A knowledge might be able to say if this is significant or not.


----------



## tech/a (17 June 2005)

*Re: XAO---Im about to change into my SHORTS.*

Smurf.

If ever you want stats like those youve done manually here I can do them in minutes searching for criteria using metastock formulas.

Just let me know what you or anyone else here would like to find out and Ill code it up and find out for you.

Often the results are suprising.

tech


----------



## tech/a (17 June 2005)

*Re: XAO---Im about to change into my SHORTS.*

Re Exhaustive bar discussion


----------



## RichKid (17 June 2005)

*Re: XAO---Im about to change into my SHORTS.*

Well, we may have to kill this thread if this keeps up and start looking for some long johns. Ahem...anyway, I haven't seen volume for today yet but I'm guessing that's one big impulse bar, what scares me is the steepness of the rise. Let's see how the next week plays out, a double top, a pullback, a reversal or consolidation or....


----------



## markrmau (17 June 2005)

*Re: XAO---Im about to change into my SHORTS.*

No way I'd short this sucker, but from gap analysis, sometimes you have breakway/midway/exhaustion gaps.....

This is the day spi contract.


----------



## DTM (1 July 2005)

*Re: XAO---Im about to change into my SHORTS.*

Looking through the optionable stocks, it looks like we are headed for a big fall.  XJO the last few days have been struggling to get up but has'nt basically moved much and looks like it will start heading downhill next week.  Banking sector looks very weak to me and coud be headed for a big fall.  Resource stocks a bit stronger but heading for a fall too.

Thoughts anyone?


----------



## markrmau (1 July 2005)

*Re: XAO---Im about to change into my SHORTS.*

I'm not convinced that things will go down from here. 

We had a bad start to the day because of the us markets last night (they were hoping the fed were coming to the end of the rate increases), and metals got hit on the lme (same hopes, and this affects the hedge fund carry trade). 

However I think the US markets will bounce back tonight because everyone new the latest interest rate was coming, and the us economy figures coming out are looking slightly better than expected.

I remember this time last year a survey was done about where the stockmarket was headed. The retail investors thought that the bull run would continue. The analysts and pro's thought that we were at the peak of the sharemarket bull run.

The mum and dad investors were correct.


----------



## tech/a (1 July 2005)

*Re: XAO---Im about to change into my SHORTS.*



			
				markrmau said:
			
		

> The mum and dad investors were correct.




You mean us!!


----------



## markrmau (1 July 2005)

*Re: XAO---Im about to change into my SHORTS.*



			
				tech/a said:
			
		

> You mean us!!



Absolutely! As you wrote at some stage, "Forget about what SHOULD be happening, concentrate on what IS happening" (or words to that effect).

I guess the API contract is getting itself ready for a move. We just dont know the direction yet.


----------



## DTM (6 July 2005)

*Re: XAO---Im about to change into my SHORTS.*

XJO dropped 27 points today.  Taking it from today's high, it actually fell 41 points.    

Personally its too big a move to ignore and seems like a double top has just been formed.


----------



## reichstag911 (6 July 2005)

*XJO has just started next leg down...*

XJO has just started next leg down...


----------



## DTM (7 July 2005)

*Re: XAO---Im about to change into my SHORTS.*

Choppy waves out there.  Time to put on longs...


----------



## Mofra (7 July 2005)

*Re: XAO---Im about to change into my SHORTS.*



			
				DTM said:
			
		

> Choppy waves out there.  Time to put on longs...



Big call DTM - with XJO closing near lows and oil above US$60
(hoping for red - short NWS  )


----------



## DTM (8 July 2005)

*Re: XAO---Im about to change into my SHORTS.*

XJO up 8 points this morning at 11.30am although its not looking very strong.

Very choppy and looks weak across the whole board except maybe resources(RIO and BHP although still not too strong looking).  Shorts coming on soon again I imagine.


----------



## TjamesX (4 August 2005)

*Re: XAO---Im about to change into my SHORTS.*

Just an interesting article I came across in this weeks AI review - get ready for the flood of cash looking for a home over the next few months...



> LORD, HERE COMES
> THE FLOOD
> If you’re wondering what is going to drive Australian equities throughout the third quarter of this year, than wonder no more, for the answer is plain liquid cash in search for a destination. GSJB Were’s institutional trader Richard Coppleson has calculated that dividend payments in July were 17.7% higher than in July last year and that makes for a very good omen for the coming
> months. The main stocks paying dividends in July 2005 distributed $4.43bn to the market, while the same stocks last year in July 2004 paid out just $3.76bn. Thus dividends last month were 17.7% more, representing an extra $666m (biblical reference?).
> ...


----------



## DTM (4 August 2005)

*Re: XAO---Im about to change into my SHORTS.*

Also look at the strength of the Aussie dollar.  It has risen with the Australian markets and the Aussie looks to keep on marching upwards against the USD.  

Watch out for overseas hedge funds looking for a place to invest their US dollars.


----------



## markrmau (4 August 2005)

*Re: XAO---Im about to change into my SHORTS.*

Starting to look toppy isn't it.

(trading not finished on this graph yet)


----------



## Smurf1976 (5 August 2005)

*Re: XAO---Im about to change into my SHORTS.*

Regarding divergences between futures and the present value of the index, can anyone comment on how reliable an indicator this is of future market direction and what would be considered a significant gap between the two?


----------



## tech/a (30 August 2005)

*Re: S&P 500 ( Profit Taking ? )*

I'll just do the XAO that should be enough.

I expect according to my analysis the XAO to 
fall to 4330 initially with a posible fall to 4175
A fall below the major trend would have my veiw as Short term bearish
This would occur at around 4100


----------



## tech/a (30 August 2005)

*Re: XAO---Im about to change into my SHORTS.*

Just thought I'd mention that the only reason I have posted these charts is that Marketwaves wanted me to post some of my own chart analysis.

I dont really know why but all the same happy to oblige.

Ive never really done the prediction thing so I'll get just as big a laugh out of the result as anyone.


----------



## doctorj (30 August 2005)

*Re: XAO---Im about to change into my SHORTS.*

Nothing wrong with trying new things - the clustering of fib lines supports your analysis.  That said, the All Ords hasn't heeded any analysis that suggests a material downward movement lately.


----------



## markrmau (30 August 2005)

*Re: XAO---Im about to change into my SHORTS.*

Here's a tip that Wayne pointed out - use the spi day contract for your analysis.

This gets rid of the 'lag' caused by the staggered market open. Your typical XAO or XJO has the wrong open - uses todays open on stocks starting with A or B, and uses yesterdays close on all the others. 

http://www.futuresource.com/charts/charts.jsp?s=ApI&o=&a=D&z=610x300&d=LOW&b=bar&st=STO(14,3);

Great analysis though - particularly your pointing out that the recent bullish trend lines being broken.


----------



## Rockon2 (31 August 2005)

*Re: XAO---Im about to change into my SHORTS.*

Damn tough call right at the moment.. But Long pants for me   

as i write this the dow is about to open , and its down - 66 on cfd .

But my charts are saying be a bull, so.. as they say time will tell cheers.


----------



## Rockon2 (31 August 2005)

*Re: XAO---Im about to change into my SHORTS.*

Just realised im posting stuff in the wrong room.

I was referring to trading the xjo (spi) overnight for 10/ 20 point moves.

Completely diff to the comments on XAO , .. cheers guys.


----------



## RichKid (20 October 2005)

*Re: XAO---Im about to change into my SHORTS.*

How could we forget this thread!!?? It seems the last downturn/correction was years ago and here we have another big one. Maybe when everyone starts getting bearish in this thread it'll be time to go long...

Note this is for the AllOrds XAO so post XJO charts in the XJO thread as the different numbers for the index levels may confuse people.


----------



## Scratch (20 October 2005)

*Re: XAO---Im about to change into my SHORTS.*

Good evening,

does anyone have any idea as to the next support line ....  my last was approx 4363.  Being a newbie I am allowed to ask the silly question.    


Disclaimer:

Who me??   I thought you supposed to know something first??!!


----------



## TjamesX (20 October 2005)

*Re: XAO---Im about to change into my SHORTS.*

Did anyone else think todays price action for the index was very weird.

In an environment where we have tended to follow the US (the S&P moved up well over 1.5% last night), the XAO opened strongly then fell away sharply in the middle of the day to end up closing down.

I didnt see any particular local economic news to cause it  

Hedge funds? Fund managers?


----------



## mit (20 October 2005)

*Re: XAO---Im about to change into my SHORTS.*

TJamesX
It follows yesterdays over-reaction as well. Obviously, our market just wants to head south at the moment. I think that it will keep doing that until we get a rash of good profit reports and people think that there is value in the market again.

Scratch
Next support at 4260 which was the previous high. Next after that is 3895 which is the previous low. If that support breaks it means technically that we have gone beyond an intermediate correction and could be in a down trend.

MIT


----------



## doctorj (20 October 2005)

*Re: XAO---Im about to change into my SHORTS.*

I don't have any research to back this beyond empirical observation, but I've noticed a few times that the humble all ords has led the Dow on Monday - particularly on a change in direction.


----------



## michael_selway (21 October 2005)

*Re: XAO---Im about to change into my SHORTS.*



			
				mit said:
			
		

> TJamesX
> It follows yesterdays over-reaction as well. Obviously, our market just wants to head south at the moment. I think that it will keep doing that until we get a rash of good profit reports and people think that there is value in the market again.
> 
> Scratch
> ...




yeah very scary indeed, in which case one should sell some now?


----------



## professor_frink (16 May 2006)

*Re: XAO---Im about to change into my SHORTS.*

thought I'd drag this thread out and dust her off for another go considering the last couple of days we've had  
Anyone put shorts on over the last 2 trading days?


----------



## IGO4IT (16 May 2006)

*Re: XAO---Im about to change into my SHORTS.*



			
				professor_frink said:
			
		

> thought I'd drag this thread out and dust her off for another go considering the last couple of days we've had
> Anyone put shorts on over the last 2 trading days?




Proffessor,

I think if we see another red tomorrow with same magnitude & whether we like it or not we have to put on the shorts immediatly, personally I don't think bears can survive much if this current dive keeps going until end of the week.

Personally, as a resouces bear, I found it very easy before to hop on the rising wave & it was rewarding, in these taugh days, I tend to look back at my garage to look for my bear custom.

its not logical for us to keep going down like that in resources & probably the world peace & harmony attacked gold & oil prices. Just can't see any wars stopping or US hugging Iran as yet!! so I think a short term correction to the upside is possible before the end of the week.

cheers,


----------



## Sean K (10 October 2006)

*Re: XAO---Im about to change into my SHORTS.*

All Ords should find some support at 5100 after breaking up the past few days, pending WWIV....Back in to record territory shortly.


----------



## GreatPig (10 October 2006)

*Re: XAO---Im about to change into my SHORTS.*

I have to warn you though that I sold one of my two shorts today. That leaves only one short stopping the market from tanking.

If I have to sell that one too, it will be watch out 4000 and below! 

GP


----------



## GreatPig (11 October 2006)

*Re: XAO---Im about to change into my SHORTS.*

The XAO is currently at an interesting position, around 5235 as I write.

That puts it right on the orange/yellow line and marginally above the blue line below.

The lines are:

Purple: the peak of the two earlier rises in the recent channel. It appears to have found some support on this.

Blue: the neckline of the head and shoulders pattern across the April/May peak. This could offer some resistance.

Orange/Yellow: the base of the main corrections in May & Oct 2005. This could also offer some resistance.

So we're currently at the junction of two resistance lines. Will it bounce back from here, perhaps follow up below the lines, or break on through? And we're only about 100 points from the all-time high as well.

The current rise from around 4950 to 5235 has been very quick, taking around 2 weeks. Now that it's at these resistance levels, will it be time for a breather?

All just conjecture of course. Anything could and probably will happen.

Cheers,
GP


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## krisbarry (11 October 2006)

Sound like you have all the colours in the rainbow on your chart, seriously though, I reckon its a bull run till at least 6000 (Jan07)


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## Sean K (11 October 2006)

*Re: XAO---Im about to change into my SHORTS.*



			
				GreatPig said:
			
		

> All just conjecture of course. Anything could and probably will happen.
> GP




I'm with you GP!


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## Uncle Festivus (7 March 2007)

A case of deja vu. Sounds similar to the threads going on now. The bears are persistant if anything 
Stop the Clock gets the prize - correct value but wrong month


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## CanOz (7 March 2007)

Many are calling this the end of the retracement, has anyone got the link to the futures, i've lost it when i had to reinstall everything.

Cheers,


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## nizar (7 March 2007)

Stop_the_clock said:
			
		

> Sound like you have all the colours in the rainbow on your chart, seriously though, I reckon its a bull run till at least 6000 (Jan07)




Brother thats a GREAT CALL.
You should be an ANALYST.
LOL


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## Moneybags (7 March 2007)

I second that. Amazing!!

MB


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## champ2003 (11 March 2007)

No shorts needed here folks and I'm not talking about clothes either.


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## coyotte (11 March 2007)

cheers


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## coyotte (14 March 2007)

Just another approach to SHORTS:

1: First I check the ASX site for allowable SHORTS --- U will find a list with the % of the available loan used.

2: Selecting from the ones with the highest %, I then check to see if they are still near their HIGHS.

3: From that list bring in your T/A --- Gaps etc


Shorted: SUN and WOR using this approach last week --- still holding the two positions.


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