# The transition to Futures trading



## pavilion103

The purpose of this thread is to discuss how a trader would transition from stock trading to futures trading. 

Questions such as: what background knowledge is needed, how trading futures differs from trading stocks in terms of strategy, price movement, risk etc.., and any other relevant points of discussion. 

I myself am not ready to trade futures. I have purchased the book "Futures Made Simple" by Kel Butcher on the advice of someone and am looking at the FTSE (mainly 3 minute) chart here and there on the odd night. For me, at present, this is merely an interesting aside from my current stock trading education, however I would be interested in trading the FTSE or DAX in the future (pardon the pun) in the evenings after work. 

Any input would be greatly appreciated. Thanks.


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## captain black

Great thread idea Pav. Bit busy with the Dax to post too much atm but from reading your previous posts I think you've done a lot of work with VSA? You'll find it works particularly well with futures. The feedback is instant and things like blow off tops, consolidation, absorption volume etc. stand out like my labrador's lipstick when you know what to look for.

Get a feed into your charting package and watch what happens on the high volume bars....and the low volume bars


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## boofis

If you haven't already, have a read into how they are priced. Look at contract specifications; tick size, $ value of tick, and your chosen markets open/close, and times economic figures/news generally come out that have an impact on your market.


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## cbc1

Hi Pav,

I also started futures trading a month ago,

Best of luck with it m8.


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## chops_a_must

The first strategy would be to look at mean reversion type trades.

Unless you have a big account, and can hold overnight, the money is in the opposite side of moves.

Which differs from basic stock trading.

And practice, test, practice, practice and more practice.


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## pavilion103

A couple of questions. 

1) Can it be used as a hedge. For example if I'm holding some long positions in stocks and the market isn't trending upwards (current market conditions). Would people then consider taking a short (however many contracts) in say the FTSE? 

2) Does the current volatility afford greater opportunities? e.g. if there are regular days where the FTSE is going down 60 points it could be beneficial taking a position at the start of the day to capitalise on this? It seems mathematically logical if you have a stop of say:
- 10 points - could afford approx 6 losing attempts to one winner
- 15 points - 4 losing attempts to one winner
- 20 points - 3 losing attempts to one winner. 

I know this depends greatly on the entry timing and the tighter the stop the greater the chance of being stopped. It just seems to me that with good entry (with a reasonably tight stop) you could be right enough times to make it work. 

Am I missing something? because I have zero idea about this to be honest....


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## RADO

pavilion103 said:


> A couple of questions.
> 
> 1) Can it be used as a hedge. For example if I'm holding some long positions in stocks and the market isn't trending upwards (current market conditions). Would people then consider taking a short (however many contracts) in say the FTSE?
> 
> 2) Does the current volatility afford greater opportunities? e.g. if there are regular days where the FTSE is going down 60 points it could be beneficial taking a position at the start of the day to capitalise on this? It seems mathematically logical if you have a stop of say:
> - 10 points - could afford approx 6 losing attempts to one winner
> - 15 points - 4 losing attempts to one winner
> - 20 points - 3 losing attempts to one winner.
> 
> I know this depends greatly on the entry timing and the tighter the stop the greater the chance of being stopped. It just seems to me that with good entry (with a reasonably tight stop) you could be right enough times to make it work.
> 
> Am I missing something? because I have zero idea about this to be honest....





1. Yes you can use it as a hedge. But most people that hedge are invertors not traders, assuming your a long term holder after dividends.
2. Yes if you know what direction the market is going to go straight after the open. I've tried this before, as soon as the market opens and I have a feeling things are going south I would quickly place a limit sell order and before you know it i've made 20 points or more. But sometimes your order would quickly get filled and the market will start moving against you. I've been burnt many times trying this technique and wouldnt recommend it.

But dont just limit yoursef to the FTSE and DAX theres many others. Trading futures isnt to much different to stocks, the best thing is being able to go short  one of the main differences is that the symbol changes after each contract expires. For eg. the march SPI futures contract symbol was "aps h3-sfe" which recently expired, its now
aps m3-sfe.


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## chops_a_must

pavilion103 said:


> A couple of questions.
> 
> 
> 2) Does the current volatility afford greater opportunities? e.g. if there are regular days where the FTSE is going down 60 points it could be beneficial taking a position at the start of the day to capitalise on this? It seems mathematically logical if you have a stop of say:
> - 10 points - could afford approx 6 losing attempts to one winner
> - 15 points - 4 losing attempts to one winner
> - 20 points - 3 losing attempts to one winner.
> 
> I know this depends greatly on the entry timing and the tighter the stop the greater the chance of being stopped. It just seems to me that with good entry (with a reasonably tight stop) you could be right enough times to make it work.
> 
> Am I missing something? because I have zero idea about this to be honest....




How do you know the market will go 60 points in your favour?

You have to remember that the majority of moves happen at the open of trading. So the sentiment etc is baked into that open. There is more money on the other side - fading opens etc. unless you are going to hold overnight.

Have a look at some charts, how they behave. And do some testing on moves after open. You'll need to find some stats to work with.


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## cbc1

pavilion103 said:


> you could be right enough times to make it work.




4 Sure pav.  If you jump in the water you will get wet at some point:bath:


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## pavilion103

The reason I ask such questions is because I know trading future requires considerable skill and I know the people that have been there before have probably had similar questions. It's obviously not easy!

I've thought of saving a screen shot of the 3 minute chart on FTSE etc to my files each day and then reviewing the behavior to get an understanding of it.


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## captain black

pavilion103 said:


> I've thought of saving a screen shot of the 3 minute chart on FTSE etc to my files each day and then reviewing the behavior to get an understanding of it.




You'll gain a much better understanding and shorten the learning curve by watching it in real time. It's easy to look at a chart in hindsight and pick the swings or breakouts or fades but knowing when to pull the trigger in real time as a setup evolves is the key.

By all means look through charts for patterns etc. but you can't beat real time observation. IB has an excellent sim account. I use Zeroline trader for placing orders which has a sim account as well.


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## pavilion103

captain black said:


> You'll gain a much better understanding and shorten the learning curve by watching it in real time. It's easy to look at a chart in hindsight and pick the swings or breakouts or fades but knowing when to pull the trigger in real time as a setup evolves is the key.
> 
> By all means look through charts for patterns etc. but you can't beat real time observation. IB has an excellent sim account. I use Zeroline trader for placing orders which has a sim account as well.




Yeh I've got IB. I was on there a bit last night on the sim account. I guess it's just a matter of apportioning my time. I have so much to learn with stocks still that I don't want to delve too deeply into this yet when stocks is my main focus. 

I'll continue to have a bit of a look at the live action. It's like a whole new world to me.

The other thing I could do is print off those charts  and put a piece of paper over the right side and look at bar by bar. But then my thinking is screwed by knowing where the chart finishes the day!


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## captain black

pavilion103 said:


> The other thing I could do is print off those charts  and put a piece of paper over the right side and look at bar by bar. But then my thinking is screwed by knowing where the chart finishes the day!




Do you have Amibroker? It has a bar replay tool that allows you to play back a certain time period bar by bar. I found it quite useful when I first started looking at futures.

http://www.amibroker.com/guide/w_barreplay.html

 I think there's mention of other software that can replay market depth as well, vague memories of CanOz mentioning it in another thread?


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## pavilion103

Yeh I do have Amibroker. I've done that with stocks before. My data package doesn't have futures I don't think, I only get it through the IB one. I'll take at my premium data package.


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## boofis

NT has market replay so you can record and run back through.


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## captain black

pavilion103 said:


> Yeh I do have Amibroker. I've done that with stocks before. My data package doesn't have futures I don't think, I only get it through the IB one. I'll take at my premium data package.




Amibroker has an Interactive Brokers data plugin so you can feed IB data straight into it.


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## pavilion103

captain black said:


> Amibroker has an Interactive Brokers data plugin so you can feed IB data straight into it.




Ok I've gotta do that! Thanks mate. I'm not up to speed with this sort of stuff!


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## CanOz

If you want to just " look at charts", then IB with Amibroker is better than IB alone in that it's a little more friendly than the Java based TWS.

However, if I were a young whipper snapper looking to learn then why start with charts? Why wouldn't you open up the IB book trader and watch the DAX or EuroStoxx on the tape and the depth? What is on the chart has already printed, to learn the market properly you need to learn how the auction works from the inside.



CanOz


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## pavilion103

CanOz said:


> If you want to just " look at charts, then IB with Amibroker is better than IB alone in that it's a little more friendly than the Java based TWS.
> 
> However, if I were a young whipper snapper looking to learn then why start with charts? Why wouldn't you open up the IB book trader and watch the DAX or EuroStoxx on the tape and the depth? What is on the chart has already printed, to learn the market properly you need to learn how the auction works from the inside.
> 
> 
> 
> CanOz




Makes sense. I know there are no shortcuts. I'll have to put aside some screen time on some nights.


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## Trembling Hand

Why are you convinced that you should be using a 3 min chart? 

Why just the FTSE?

Never try and take a trade as a hedge..................... EVER!


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## captain black

pavilion103 said:


> Ok I've gotta do that! Thanks mate. I'm not up to speed with this sort of stuff!




Here's the tutorial on setting up IB with Amibroker.

http://www.amibroker.com/guide/h_ib.html

The symbols can be difficult to get right at times. Make sure you get the spaces or the dashes in the right place and they should work.


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## Trembling Hand

If learning is what you really want to do. Here would be my steps to learning futs if I was to do it again. 

Spend some time learning basic NT (5 -10 hours)

Spend some money getting data from IB for SPI, Kospi, STW, Nikkei, ES, YM, CL, GC, DAX, FTSE and a few FX crosses. ($150 per month)

Set up NT each day to record depth and every tick for playback. (daily connect setup 5 min per day)

When you have some spare time each week spend it on the sim PLAYING on everyone of the above markets. Doing anything, putting on size, scalping, hanging on for a few hours, being in the market ALL the time etc etc(5 hours per week)

Then after a few months when you have had a good look at all markets and see how they are when they get wild and when they are boring as bat Sh!+ pick a few where you have some interest. 

Then pick a few patterns that you think repeat in those markets and print them out and put them in a folder in sections, breakouts, wild starts, ranging, fake breaks, low range days, large range trending days etc...... What you want to do now is every day add to the folder whenever you see the same pattern in your markets.

With those two or three Markets and your growing collection of repeating patterns on the weekend and 1 or 2 day through the week put aside a few 2 hour blocks. Now here is the bit that will save you years and worthless side trips down the discipline road. Turn on NTs playback function. Set it to 10x speed and hit with all you have. Trade it seriously with 2 lots and don't kid yourself. Keep stats (which NT is good at) and really work on them. Win rate, R:R hold time etc. You will do 20 hours of intense trading and training in two hours. After a few months you will literately have years of examples played out in your head.


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## waza1960

If







> learning is what you really want to do. Here would be my steps to learning futs if I was to do it again.



+1

 Why would you use Amibroker to study/trade futures? Like racing a Cadillac at Nurumbring against F1 cars

  Consider using one of the US brokers for testing/sim. I use AMP futures with NT or MC they have CQG data which
  is top notch +if you have a live account with a few hundred dollars in it data and exchange fees are free.
   They also have data for SFE.


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## pavilion103

Trembling Hand said:


> Why are you convinced that you should be using a 3 min chart?
> 
> Why just the FTSE?
> 
> Never try and take a trade as a hedge..................... EVER!




I am not at all convinced on the 3 min chart TH. I have no idea which one to use to be honest. I'm assuming I'll probably be using at least two timeframes. I need to investigate this further.

Just using the FTSE as an example here. The truth is that I have no idea what's out there. I need to explore.


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## pavilion103

captain black said:


> Here's the tutorial on setting up IB with Amibroker.
> 
> http://www.amibroker.com/guide/h_ib.html
> 
> The symbols can be difficult to get right at times. Make sure you get the spaces or the dashes in the right place and they should work.




Thanks. Much appreciated!


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## pavilion103

Trembling Hand said:


> If learning is what you really want to do. Here would be my steps to learning futs if I was to do it again.
> 
> Spend some time learning basic NT (5 -10 hours)
> 
> Spend some money getting data from IB for SPI, Kospi, STW, Nikkei, ES, YM, CL, GC, DAX, FTSE and a few FX crosses. ($150 per month)
> 
> Set up NT each day to record depth and every tick for playback. (daily connect setup 5 min per day)
> 
> When you have some spare time each week spend it on the sim PLAYING on everyone of the above markets. Doing anything, putting on size, scalping, hanging on for a few hours, being in the market ALL the time etc etc(5 hours per week)
> 
> Then after a few months when you have had a good look at all markets and see how they are when they get wild and when they are boring as bat Sh!+ pick a few where you have some interest.
> 
> Then pick a few patterns that you think repeat in those markets and print them out and put them in a folder in sections, breakouts, wild starts, ranging, fake breaks, low range days, large range trending days etc...... What you want to do now is every day add to the folder whenever you see the same pattern in your markets.
> 
> With those two or three Markets and your growing collection of repeating patterns on the weekend and 1 or 2 day through the week put aside a few 2 hour blocks. Now here is the bit that will save you years and worthless side trips down the discipline road. Turn on NTs playback function. Set it to 10x speed and hit with all you have. Trade it seriously with 2 lots and don't kid yourself. Keep stats (which NT is good at) and really work on them. Win rate, R:R hold time etc. You will do 20 hours of intense trading and training in two hours. After a few months you will literately have years of examples played out in your head.




Thanks for your help. You're a good man TH. This is EXACTLY the type of thing I was looking for.

At the risk of sounding like a complete donk, what is NT?


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## Trembling Hand

pavilion103 said:


> At the risk of sounding like a complete donk, what is NT?




http://www.ninjatrader.com/


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## baby_swallow

Also, be very aware of high impact economic news of the day.
Here's the website that I watch before entering a trade.

http://www.forexfactory.com/calendar.php

For shorter timeframe, high impact news will give you either a windfall or a big dent 
in your account. Better not to have positions before the news, unless you have a crystal ball. 
In the old days, before Bernanke's QE, the ES can move 10pts and back again in a matter of seconds.


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## waza1960

> Better not to have positions before the news, unless you have a crystal ball.



 Actually I find the hours before the news are actually quite good to trade just don't hold any positions over the news period


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## Trembling Hand

baby_swallow said:


> Also, be very aware of high impact economic news of the day.






waza1960 said:


> Actually I find the hours before the news are actually quite good to trade just don't hold any positions over the news period




Man up dudes. Got an idea -- trade it!!


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## peter2

Trembling Hand said:


> If learning is what you really want to do. Here would be my steps to learning futs if I was to do it again. . . .




A seriously good post TH.


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## CanOz

Agree, we should make it 'sticky'


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## tech/a

peter2 said:


> A seriously good post TH.




Agree +1 for those that want to trade like that.
I don't think its necessary. You can but --- you don't have to
Well that's been my experience.

*T/H*

You don't suggest longer time frame?
A position trade for an hr to a month?
Does everything have to be done in micro seconds?



> Set at 10x playback speed.


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## Trembling Hand

tech/a said:


> Agree +1 for those that want to trade like that.
> I don't think its necessary. You can but --- you don't have to
> Well that's been my experience.
> 
> *T/H*
> 
> You don't suggest longer time frame?
> A position trade for an hr to a month?
> Does everything have to be done in micro seconds?




I said try everything. 

By the way your experience has been 20 years of trading. I'm answering to someone who would like to see some progress within this decade!


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## Trembling Hand

tech/a said:


> Does everything have to be done in micro seconds?




Because some are a little slow I'll add to this. 

My recommendation about doing it at x10 speed has nothing to do with becoming the worlds best scalper. My suggestion is try *everything *- find a pattern & market that makes sense - then trade it over and over.

If you want to be a discretionary trader all you need to get going is a few patterns to trade. Doing it at a faster pace is like looking at 100s of static after the fact charts but it enables you to do 100s of real live runs in a short time, check the stats and then adjust your "system" similar to forward testing after a parameter change. You super charge your trading skills, you test the pattern and learn.

Or

You could be bored silly looking at the live screen for the next 3 years trying to forward test your ideas.


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## tech/a

> You could be bored silly looking at the live screen for the next 3 years trying to forward test your ideas.




Why weren't you around 20 yrs ago!


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## waza1960

> Why weren't you around 20 yrs ago!




  The tools weren't either lol


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## tech/a

waza1960 said:


> The tools weren't either lol




Yeh plenty of " tools " around then.


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## pavilion103

Well I decided to put up the FTSE tonight while watching the footy (what a game ). I won't get in a habit of posting these charts but interesting to see that this one afforded some opportunities breaking from consolidation patterns (with declining volume). I got in at (on the simulator) the highlighted green area which for me was the break of the channel at around 10:40. This was a consolidation right at the high volume area from the start of the trading day.

This is the FTSE and 3 min chart (no real reason why I chose this index and timeframe). Hopefully with a lot of screen time I will be able to identify the common behaviours on this and other futures indexes. 

That's around $400 ($600AU) in around an hour and a half (for 1 contract). I'm glad I'm not the type of person that just jumps in because with a nice win like this pretty much first up, I could have blown a lot in subsequent trades thinking that I could just go on and do this every night.


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## baby_swallow

baby_swallow said:


> Better not to have positions before the news, unless you have a crystal ball.




Ooops!..my mistake!... I should say:

"Better not to have positions before the news, unless your name is TH"


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## DJG

I'm also definitely interested in this thread. Keep it going and don't hold back on the graphs, as the visual example is always the best (this includes you tech/a and everyone else that can provide pattern examples etc).

I have one question also, for yourself or others - Who provides a decent simulated/demo trading account for futures?


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## pavilion103

DJG said:


> I'm also definitely interested in this thread. Keep it going and don't hold back on the graphs, as the visual example is always the best (this includes you tech/a and everyone else that can provide pattern examples etc).
> 
> I have one question also, for yourself or others - Who provides a decent simulated/demo trading account for futures?




I use Interactive Brokers (the above chart). It comes with a simulation account as well as the real one with separate logins. I'm going to play around with futures on this one.


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## DJG

pavilion103 said:


> I use Interactive Brokers (the above chart). It comes with a simulation account as well as the real one with separate logins. I'm going to play around with futures on this one.




Thanks mate,

I tried opening an account with them, but I didn't have the required minimum deposit at the time. - Do you only get access to a demo account if you already have a real one?


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## waza1960

> I tried opening an account with them, but I didn't have the required minimum deposit at the time. - Do you only get access to a demo account if you already have a real one?




see post #23


> Consider using one of the US brokers for testing/sim. I use AMP futures with NT or MC they have CQG data which is top notch +if you have a live account with a few hundred dollars in it data and exchange fees are free.
> They also have data for SFE.



   + its real tick data


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## pavilion103

DJG said:


> Thanks mate,
> 
> I tried opening an account with them, but I didn't have the required minimum deposit at the time. - Do you only get access to a demo account if you already have a real one?




Yeh I'm pretty sure you have to have a real one to get the demo. The minimum to open an account is 10,000 but I think the minimum you can leave in is around 2,000 iirc. Can't remember exactly.


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## DJG

pavilion103 said:


> Yeh I'm pretty sure you have to have a real one to get the demo. The minimum to open an account is 10,000 but I think the minimum you can leave in is around 2,000 iirc. Can't remember exactly.




Luckily for me it's $3000 because I'm under 25. - Have to start saving


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## pavilion103

Below is the chart so far tonight. A 3 min chart again with some little consolidation patterns on declining volume, similar to the last chart I posted. 

I have a question to pose to the people in here:

Is anyone interested in picking out a particular futures index e.g. the FTSE, or maybe a couple of ones which behave fairly similar and discussing in more detail the things to look for, similar patterns/behavior that repeat etc....I know everyone trades differently, but it would be interesting.

We could either continue it in this thread of I could start another one. I'm not sure if this will gain a big enough following to warrant progressing with but if there is I am keen to get it happening!!!


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## pavilion103

Just adding to that. I could post charts a couple of times a week (or more frequently if people are keen) and we can discuss them together. I'm open to ideas.


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## chops_a_must

I find the European markets pretty strange.

You need to keep an eye on the US futures, to look for moves into open.


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## Lone Wolf

Hi Pav,

I previously compared IB's volume data against a screenshot Tech put up (esignal I think) and I found that they were slightly different. I'll see if I can post a link to the thread:
https://www.aussiestockforums.com/forums/showthread.php?t=23310&p=653223&viewfull=1#post653223

SkyQuake was the only one to respond but he believed IB data to be incorrect. I have no idea if the problem still exists or how much of a problem it is. But if you're using volume analysis it might be an idea to have someone with a reliable feed compare against one of your charts for you. You don't want to be looking for patterns in false data.

Nice thread by the way. I'd certainly like to see more. But what you need is input from people who know what they're talking about when it comes to discretionary trading. That counts me out. :


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## DJG

pavilion103 said:


> Just adding to that. I could post charts a couple of times a week (or more frequently if people are keen) and we can discuss them together. I'm open to ideas.




the more charts, the better. Especially if they've got commentary and feedback.


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## CanOz

chops_a_must said:


> I find the European markets pretty strange.
> 
> You need to keep an eye on the US futures, to look for moves into open.




That's the type of patterns I'm interested in, does the DAX or FESX retest an area if the ES test the ETH low/high?

Does the DAX break out of its initial balance that often, if so how far does it typically move?

The EU indices are fine to trade but they're a different personality depending on the time of day.

CanOz


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## CanOz

As far as chart patterns go, sometimes they work and sometimes they don't. More often than not they don't work on index futures, IMO. If you get into a choppy area you'll get cut to bits.

If you can recognize support or resistance in the book first, you can get in on a pattern before it breaks, giving you a little edge on the typical pattern traders.

CanOz


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## CanOz

Yesterdays Eurostoxx session had a nice trend. I guess there would have been a couple of opportunities for pattern traders depending on what each one sees. The session prior was a little more difficult, choppier. 

The open, as well as the opening range (initial balance) had opportunities if you can determine where the most pressure is...

CanOz


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## CanOz

Here is the same market (5 sessions), this time with a Volume Weighted Average Price channel, and the prior day OHLC levels marked.

Does anyone see any trading opportunities on it?

CanOz


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## CanOz

Here is the same chart without the VWAP channel. The reason i picked the FESX is because it is one of the most liquid contracts in existence, fills aren't a problem, its 10 EUR per tick/Contract, and it has a reasonable range.

CanOz


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## CanOz

Here's today's chart with a couple of levels to watch...


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## chops_a_must

CanOz said:


> As far as chart patterns go, sometimes they work and sometimes they don't. More often than not they don't work on index futures, IMO. If you get into a choppy area you'll get cut to bits.




Agree.

Not sure if you have it, but there was a classic this morning on the spi 3 minute.

Looked for all money like a runaway gap, a pennant formed. It broke up, and was slammed back through the gap.



CanOz said:


> Here is the same market (5 sessions), this time with a Volume Weighted Average Price channel, and the prior day OHLC levels marked.
> 
> Does anyone see any trading opportunities on it?
> 
> CanOz




Plenty of gap fills, and trends to the opposite of the open.


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## CanOz

Not really much for patterns on the FESX last night, but there was a rejection of this level. Tough to play and i didn't see it until this morning. 2565 will be interesting today. IF we can bounce there we could test 2597.

Cheers,


CanOz


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## CanOz

chops_a_must said:


> Agree.
> 
> Not sure if you have it, but there was a classic this morning on the spi 3 minute.
> 
> Looked for all money like a runaway gap, a pennant formed. It broke up, and was slammed back through the gap.




This?


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## chops_a_must

CanOz said:


> This?




That's the one!


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## pavilion103

My book arrived just now. I'm like a little kid in a candy store when I get books in the mail! 

Btw thanks for the input into this thread. I'll have a more in depth look soon. Great work. 

Minor knee operation yesterday = plenty of reading time!!!


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## CanOz

pavilion103 said:


> My book arrived just now. I'm like a little kid in a candy store when I get books in the mail!
> 
> View attachment 51619




$15.37 on Kindle!

I reckon you could have got at least as much from a few on here that actually know a thing or two about the futures markets though. But if you like reading its a great way to pass the time, and Larry Williams wouldn't steer you wrong that often.

CanOz


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## pavilion103

I'll take what I can get at the moment in terms of education. May be handy as someone completely new to futures!

Someone I respect recommended that book so I'll take their word for it!


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## CanOz

Not liking that level so far today, tested the pre-cash high...


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## CanOz

Here's a 'pattern' that i don't see this obvious very often, nor do they present themselves as well as this for a trade either. 

This ice berg was huge, price came up and tried to go thru several times and it just sat there soaking up the buyers...lol

Unfortunately i was stuck on sim, thru my VPN until i can sort out my connection...

They don't get much easier than this.

CanOz


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## pavilion103

That last one is interesting....


I've read 200 pages of the Futures book. A lot of it is basics I am already well aware of but the background and basic mechanics of futures contracts is interesting. Although I won't be trading everything under the sun, the sections that talk about the various futures contracts available was beneficial. It's just good to be aware of what is out there, the market hours, the minimum price movements etc. I left the Indexes bit at the end for the minute because I want to go over that in the detail it deserves. 


Just returning to the FTSE out of interest, I was watching this 5 min chart (in conjunction with the three minute chart) yesterday evening. I drew in the lines for the triangle very early on and then identified the break to the upside as most likely false. Then it was a nice little run down. Some preliminary support in the first pattern before a base formed after the high volume near the bottom pattern.


----------



## pavilion103

I'll do a bit of research on the Euro Stoxx 50, as I hadn't come across it prior to this thread. 

This is a stimulating aside for me, breaking up the study of stocks, although probably just an aside at the moment. Enjoying this thread


----------



## CanOz

The latest version of my Jigsaw DOM has a handy highlight feature for larger than average size in the depth (for us older folks)....will see how it goes on the DAX today, some great spoofs in that market at times...Trying to do a video lately too.

CanOz


----------



## pavilion103

Just a quick update of tonight's FTSE on the simulator.

I took a short at around 6,259 (the shaded red area on the chart), so this is up close to 60 points @ $15 = $900 profit.
Initial stop was 9 points away from entry = 9 x $15 = $135 risk. 

I'm wishing I had put a few of the trades through on the real account this week, but I'm not one to jump the gun!

Things I'm noticing so far:
1) These consolidations patterns have worked this week
2) They also coincide with low volume testing at high volume areas. 

I am continually on the look out for price behaviour which repeats itself. It will take months and countless charts to really begin to understand this.


----------



## CanOz

There has been a few trend days lately, volitility is has really picked up, that's when the little consolidation patterns will likely perform better. 



CanOz


----------



## pavilion103

CanOz said:


> There has been a few trend days lately, volitility is has really picked up, that's when the little consolidation patterns will likely perform better.
> 
> 
> 
> CanOz




That's what I figured. I'll continue to monitor in various market conditions. With these trends it's handy to get a good entry like this one. Almost 7R profit, which would allow a few losses in between.

Do these index futures often trend in one direction like this frequently? Or is it just the current market conditions? Is it usually more range bound?

I just had a look through that book again too.
It talked about:
S&P 500
S&P 500 E-mini
EuroStoxx 50
FTSE 100
NEKKEI
SPI 200

At least gives me a basic overview of some of the main ones. What was just names before and terminology is starting to make some sense.


----------



## CanOz

pavilion103 said:


> That's what I figured. I'll continue to monitor in various market conditions. With these trends it's handy to get a good entry like this one. Almost 7R profit, which would allow a few losses in between.
> 
> Do these index futures often trend in one direction like this frequently? Or is it just the current market conditions? Is it usually more range bound?
> 
> I just had a look through that book again too.
> It talked about:
> S&P 500
> S&P 500 E-mini
> EuroStoxx 50
> FTSE 100
> NEKKEI
> SPI 200
> 
> At least gives me a basic overview of some of the main ones. What was just names before and terminology is starting to make some sense.




Typically in a bull market the days are tight ranges stacked on top of each other to form a trend up. 

As we break out of a bracket, range or consolidation as we have, volatility picks up as longs liquidate/shorts cover etc., etc...this gives you big swings to work with. A mean reversion traders worst nightmare is trying to fade a big trend like today...luckily you can learn to pick up some signs and try to either get on a trend like that or not try and pick the bottom.

I suspect one thing that separates the Pros like TH and the learners like moi, is the ability to spot a trend day before you get caught trying to fade the whole thing....



CanOz


----------



## fiftyeight

Loving this thread.

Very new to trading all together (first post), but I am learning a lot or rather learning how much I need to learn.

Cheers


----------



## pavilion103

fiftyeight said:


> Loving this thread.
> 
> Very new to trading all together (first post), but I am learning a lot or rather learning how much I need to learn.
> 
> Cheers




Welcome to the forum mate


----------



## Lone Wolf

CanOz said:


> A mean reversion traders worst nightmare is trying to fade a big trend like today...luckily you can learn to pick up some signs and try to either get on a trend like that or not try and pick the bottom.
> 
> I suspect one thing that separates the Pros like TH and the learners like moi, is the ability to spot a trend day before you get caught trying to fade the whole thing....




I wanted to ask about that. How important is it to be able to predict in advance what sort of day it is likely to be (trending, ranging etc.)? How accurately can someone anticipate this?  

Many system traders stick to one system that only works in one market type and build in a safety net to control losses when conditions aren't ideal. But does a good discretionary trader adjust their methods to match the expected market?

Finding good repeating patterns to trade is a starting point. Knowing under what conditions those patterns work is another point. Being able to anticipate when the conditions will be right for the patterns you want to trade is probably where I would struggle the most.


----------



## CanOz

Lone Wolf, Personally i don't think anyone can really predict whether or not the day will be a trend day or not, but i think there are quite a few that can tell when it looks likely that the session is developing into a trend day or not. Some likely do this by simply looking for the market to challenge and overcome the previous days highs/low etc., how effectively is the market accomplishing this, volume, pace of the tape, how aggressively are they sweeping the depth?

Quite often on the DAX and CL i've noticed that spoofing occurs when the day is a little range bound or balanced. A player, whether a local or a large trader, is posting size in the depth in an attempt to move the limit orders one way or another. On the DAX and CL these orders are usually 100 or better. On the FESX its seems to be above 2500. Sometime they'll spoof (spook) the market higher, pull the 100 lot, then unload a bunch into the bids. sometimes the big size are stops and market seems to get moved toward them, if they break the market can move several points as the stops are hit. I don't see as much of this stuff carry on when its a big trend day, although the stop runs are common.

News has such a great effect on intra-day trends, perhaps the main driver of participants other than the locals. Usually the other participants (commercial hedgers, funds) are the bigger size too, right...?

One of main frustrations with trading intra-day systematically was the inability of an algorithm to recognize the entry of the big boys, the guys that start or end trends. 

Obviously the successful Prop traders can do this quite effectively by concentrating on the order flow, the auction.

One thing i have noticed though, time and time again, is that new intra-day trends start and finish on key levels. For example, last night the ES (S&P500 mini) tested the Globex session low, it bounced a little, and then a large iceberg sat there absorbing all the selling, once the sellers dried up the offers pulled and the market started its grind up off the lows. From what i've heard this morning (i haven't opened NT yet), the market tested the low one more time later in the session, and then closed well off the lows to reclaim back much of the initial losses.

These are the types of patterns that repeat, because someone is finding the advertisement of price at that level too much to resist.

CanOz


----------



## pavilion103

How important is the market depth in this type of intraday trading? 
Is it absolutely vital and necessary?



I don't refer to it for my stock trading (where I hold between days and a few weeks).


----------



## tech/a

PAV

I don't use it at all.
Guys like TH won't leave home without it.
Many don't believe you can trade futures 
Without it-----

There are plenty of other tools to use and timeframe
Has a bearing on depth.

My view anyway


----------



## CanOz

pavilion103 said:


> How important is the market depth in this type of intraday trading?
> Is it absolutely vital and necessary?
> 
> 
> 
> I don't refer to it for my stock trading (where I hold between days and a few weeks).




Well, there's a couple of ways to think about it...

Think about the chart as "already happened", where as what is happening in the depth and on the prints is now, it IS the auction, LIVE.

If your trading style, or edge depends on what is happening now, then the depth is absolutely necessary. If you edge doesn't require the depth then you don't need it.

To me, the evidence that the "pros", that is the Prop Traders...are using the depth is overwhelming. So perhaps its worthwhile to try and see why they are using it before dismissing it altogether. If, after you start to watch it, you still find nothing useful from it...after months of watching it, then dismiss it.

Why i believe the Prop training teaches you to scalp first, is so you learn to use the depth and see the actual auction take place. Then if you can apply some market structure tools, you may be able to get into some trades with higher R:R than scalps.

Only my "learner" opinion....based on my past 18 months of learning intra-day.

CanOz


----------



## CanOz

Just a quick post in between proofing and baking!

How can a repeating pattern on one market help you on another?

The ES (S&P 500 mini) will frequently test the high or low that was realized during the extended trading or Globex session. This itself is a pattern that many traders use. I saw some figures on it some time ago but it was more than 40% of the time that it was tested within x time from the open of regular trading hours.

Anyway, on Friday it was tested. I've often noticed that when the ES did its test, there would be a low/high in the European markets. I used to watch the DAX allot, when i picked this up. For those that don't know, the US leads Europe (generally) once the Cash opens in NY. So when the ES tested its Globex low again for the second time after the open, the FESX also tested an important level, 2500. You can see on the FESX chart that it was almost as if the buyers were waiting for a chance to swing into action here....

Now i did not know this before i looked at the FESX chart today as i was watching the ES/CL only on Friday night, but i knew that if the ES tested the O/N low there would be something interesting on the FESX, there almost always is.

Another example of a repeating '_pattern_' that offers a trading opportunity.


Here's is the video or the replay. Keep in mind the T&S is not accurate, i think the replay engine is too slow to keep up. The prints on the DOM should be accurate. You can see some absorption at 2501 but mainly just the selling drying up...The bid depth thickens up as well. Anything over 2000 is highlighted.

[video=youtube_share;-JDHFuOlEM0]http://youtu.be/-JDHFuOlEM0[/video]

Cheers,


CanOz


----------



## CanOz

Here is an opportunity around the 2550-2555 area for a reversal....

Will try and record it...

CanOz


----------



## DJG

Is it possible (does anyone) trade futures with pure price action? such as pin bars, engulfing's etc? Or would this need to be done on a larger timeframe unless you're quick?

If so, does anybody combine it with DOMs?


----------



## CanOz

DJG said:


> Is it possible (does anyone) trade futures with pure price action? such as pin bars, engulfing's etc? Or would this need to be done on a larger timeframe unless you're quick?
> 
> If so, does anybody combine it with DOMs?





Yup. Al Brooks 

http://www.brookspriceaction.com/


----------



## DJG

CanOz said:


> Yup. Al Brooks
> 
> http://www.brookspriceaction.com/




Awesome

cheers mate


----------



## pavilion103

Tech recommended Al Brooks to me so I bought his 3 books on trends, ranges and reversals (I think). Heavy reading!!! About 100 pages into the trends book.

I'm going to start following be eurostoxx more closely so that I can give some of my thoughts on the thread. I'll also continue to post FTSE ones when I get the chance too. I won't get to every night.


----------



## CanOz

Webinar by Al Brooks




CanOz


----------



## CanOz

Same upper trade location as yesterday, we could see a test of 2533 before a move higher.

If so, we'll look for initiative buyers there.

Seems allot of short covering around today so far...

CanOz


----------



## chops_a_must

Could be the first stage in a move higher IMO.

A narrowing of ranges, volatility decrease...

By that I mean we're moving out of that in some indices.


----------



## CanOz

chops_a_must said:


> Could be the first stage in a move higher IMO.
> 
> A narrowing of ranges, volatility decrease...
> 
> By that I mean we're moving out of that in some indices.




Volume on these latest moves higher has been a bit light...


----------



## CanOz

We had a nice little lean on the Bid at the FESX prior close, so i leaned with them and traded back to the prior session POC for a 6 point scalp. The same time the DAX filled its gap, good long opportunity with 2553 as our target.

CanOz


----------



## CanOz

Well, pretty much according to script today. If we retest that LOD and fail, we could see a test lower again...

We'll see...btw i missed the test at 2551, sound asleep

CanOz


----------



## CanOz

CanOz said:


> Well, pretty much according to script today. If we retest that LOD and fail, we could see a test lower again...
> 
> CanOz




We tested the LOD and eventually failed, tested the break, then test the Prior LOD a couple of times. These levels have provided some great opportunities lately, mostly during the US session. 

CanOz


----------



## pavilion103

I've had a bit of a look over this thread but haven't posted in 2 weeks. 

Here is a nice setup I got tonight on FTSE. 
Entry - 6264
Stop - 6258.5

This occurred at a very high volume area and the setup was in the form of a micro consolidation triangle. 

Stop trailed to breakeven and then to 6271. Currently close to 5R open profit with 1 contract ($300AU). 

We'll see how it plays out.


----------



## pavilion103

Here is the progress. 

FTSE now at 6300. The trade is at 8R profit. 
Stop is fairly tight now at 6292. Locked in just over 6R profit or $525AU

The other shapes on the chart are just some of my thoughts as it unfolds nothing concrete that I'm going by.

I've got this loaded up while I watch to some VSA webinars on my other screen.


----------



## pavilion103

I won't be doing this all the time but as a one off this is interesting. I'll post another one up. 

It's now at around 6312 which is 48 points up from the start or around $720AU. It's now almost 11R profit. 

Another break, this time from a triangle with declining volume. I'm continuing to trail the stop. 

I won't be on here all night, probably some light reading and then I'll call it quits.


----------



## CanOz

You sure can pick the trend days can't you!


----------



## pavilion103

Well I'm going to close out here. 6323

Up 59 points.

Profit = 13.1R which is $885AU for one contract in this case. 


I'm not sure what I'm trying to illustrate here  just wanted to track this one tonight from early on and do a live update to show the thought process of someone new to futures trying to ride the trend.

I hope people found it interesting. I don't anticipate posting like this too often. 

I'll be interested to see if it keeps moving up or not. It's already up 1.6%!!! I would have stayed in and trailed the stops, but it's time for bed!


----------



## pavilion103

CanOz said:


> You sure can pick the trend days can't you!




A great run tonight. It just kept going!


----------



## pavilion103

Well it finished up about 120 or so points = 2%, so there would have been a bit more profit to be had. Interesting day to pick. Good to get some screen time.


----------



## CanOz

**

All day today I've been testing a new data feed from IQFeed, trying to resolve my connectivity issues once and for all. 

I was showing my wife a few ins and outs of the DOM while GC was in pit open and i noticed that the bids and offers were really screwed up, so i switched off the IQFeed and waited for my broker feed to kick in....it wouldn't take over so i manually asked it to disconnect....then NT Told me i still had an open position...ON MY LIVE ACCOUNT....I'm thinking "WHAT FARKING LIVE POSITION?????????"

The GC pit opens and GC shoots up 7 points...

I switch over to account view, by this time I've gone white as a sheet and my wife is asking me..."Whats Wrong?"

I said..."I've got a live trade open here somehow"

I look at the P/L...Its June Gold:1zhelp:....then i look again...Its positive....several thousand dollars positive

Moral of the story, always start in simulation mode if you are testing connectivity.

CanOz


----------



## chops_a_must

Well done on your random entry system.


----------



## pavilion103

I hadn't even logged on to my futures since my last posts. I'd put it to the back of my mind. 

My interested was re-sparked when I caught up with Tech. I couldn't pass up the opportunity to ask him a bunch of questions about it. These related more to macro conditions and taking a position trade in one of the major futures indexes. 

Putting position trades aside for the minute, the volatility wide ranging days in the FTSE (as well as the SPI) have been very noticeable. I'm thinking that maybe these could present some good intraday opportunities also. With the FTSE running 2% on some days, there may be the opportunity to get a good run. 

I'm just thinking out loud at the moment....

One vital part of the strategy that I've been working on with Tech on our portfolio (and is important in relation to futures) is getting the trade to breakeven. I'm going to really focus on this quick movement of stops to breakeven and see if I can get some good runs, while reducing the risk where possible. 

I'm not 100% sure how many trades I'll take if any but this idea interests me. 

I took a position trade yesterday, a short and have my stop at breakeven. I may be stopped out here but that's ok. I feel very comfortable knowing that I won't lose on this trade. 

Risk management is my number one focus here.

As I said, just thinking aloud at the moment but thinking with the current volatility it could present some good opportunities. I'll post if I decide to do anything......


----------



## pavilion103

This is the one that I got in yesterday (short). This is only today's chart. 

I have come so close to being stopped out multiple times!!! (see the green line at 6644)

Entry 6644
Initial stop 6680 (about $580 risk)

Current stop moved to BE - 6644 late yesterday

Currently 6618.5


----------



## CanOz

Interesting Pav, how did you go through the GDP announcement?


----------



## pavilion103

I didn't add another position but....

Below is a trade setup. This is the type of thing I'm looking for intraday (see circled in purple)

Pivot point reversal on ultra high volume right near a persisting resistance area. 
Entry 6622 (below reversal bar)
Stop 6627 (above reversal bar)

Very low risk of only 5 points - $80 risk. 

I'd be looking to move stop to BE asap


----------



## pavilion103

CanOz said:


> Interesting Pav, how did you go through the GDP announcement?




I was just glad that there was a fall after that!

On three separate up-moves, the FTSE got within 7 points of my stop!

I guess the good thing about moving the stop to breakeven is that I can be without stress no matter what happens. I can walk away from it and check it later if I want. If I make some money good, if I'm stopped out well no loss.


----------



## pavilion103

This one has broken lower nicely. 

Now the stop would be at least at breakeven. I would probably even move it down a little bit more to the orange line. 

So far so good. But most importantly risk eliminated quickly.


----------



## pavilion103

One more before I go to bed. 

Looking in the context of my position trade yesterday:

Price is now at a solid support level. Volume has increased. Will it find some support here?

You would think that a break downward through this level would be significant.


----------



## pavilion103

I couldn't not post this. Similar to the previous pivot point reversal but at significant support. 

I didn't post this in real time, but a good setup nonetheless. 

Once again my position trade in danger of being taken out!


----------



## CanOz

Your FTSE has put in a nice little bullish wedge Pav, be interesting to see if it plays out or its a pattern fail.

CanOz


----------



## pavilion103

CanOz said:


> Your FTSE has put in a nice little bullish wedge Pav, be interesting to see if it plays out or its a pattern fail.
> 
> CanOz




I'm looking to see if it pushes towards the highs. Not sure how much life it has left but if its looking toppy I'll aim for another low risk short position trade. 
Not too bullish atm


----------



## pavilion103

Well as I've stated in this thread and others threads, as the market started to look toppy, my main focus was to profit from the FTSE futures in a down market. 

I hadn't planned to get into Futures trading so quickly but with the opportunities on the table it was hard to resist. As per much of my VSA education, I began hounding Tech/a with emails and questions. And I credit much of my early learning in the futures to him. Whether it is him (or sometimes others on the forum), I believe in modelling as such an effective way to speed up my education. 

On the first leg down in the FTSE I was a little frustrated. I got into one trade and out at break-even. A good lesson in risk management. Maybe a little cautious however and I was stopped out of my trade by only 10 ticks, after aggressively moving my stop, which cost me about $4,500. 
In the meantime I've been watching the FTSE many evenings and taking smaller positions with some (but little) success. I've learnt ALOT. 

This is my second attempt at a short position trade on the FTSE. I woke up this morning and saw what I thought looked bearish and I took a trade at 9:30am this morning (in a thinly traded market). 

I won't go into specifics because I don't want to get in trouble but my initial risk was about 106 ticks (over $1,600), which is a lot for me considering in my ASX portfolio I risk $200 per trade. 

Fortunately things moved in my favour quickly and I'm about 60-70 ticks up. I've moved my stop up to the green area on the chart (above the high of today's bar) which is a maximum about $300 loss. So I've reduced the risk quickly. The stop might not be as technically sound as my original one but I feel much more comfortable with the level of risk. If I get stopped, I get stopped.


----------



## pavilion103

On the left is a 5 minute chart. 
On the right is the hourly chart of the past 2 weeks. (not the low on 13th June, it may not be easy going below this).


----------



## CanOz

Whilst the EU markets feel pretty short at the moment, the rally's aren't getting bought up yet...


----------



## pavilion103

We'll see how it plays out. 

For me it's about getting a decent entry and managing risk and then most of my job is done. 

I can't control what the markets do, but I'll be barracking for the short side


----------



## CanOz

Sure, you seem to want to be fairly mechanical about it and that's cool. But the edge in intra-day trading, as TH has pointed out, is your brain.

CanOz


----------



## pavilion103

I'll listen and I'll learn. 

I'm out for an 80 point profit today. 

New short setup in place. 

Very happy with today.


----------



## tech/a

pavilion103 said:


> I'll listen and I'll learn.
> 
> I'm out for an 80 point profit today.
> 
> New short setup in place.
> 
> Very happy with today.




Thought you kept the first one live---

We both were filled and I still have the first!
What a clever Dick---err Duck.


----------



## Trembling Hand

tech/a said:


> Thought you kept the first one live---
> 
> We both were filled and I still have the first!
> What a clever Dick---err Duck.




You have her on a string. Time to open the shoulders (flappers?).


----------



## pavilion103

tech/a said:


> Thought you kept the first one live---
> 
> We both were filled and I still have the first!
> What a clever Dick---err Duck.




Didn't have the balls to hit it with a second contract. I covered incase it found a little support and then put in place a new short for if it fell below.

I'm treading just a little carefully!


----------



## pavilion103

pavilion103 said:


> Didn't have the balls to hit it with a second contract. I covered incase it found a little support and then put in place a new short for if it fell below.
> 
> I'm treading just a little carefully!




Still mainly about learning for me, but happy to make a decent buck along the way!!


----------



## tech/a

pavilion103 said:


> Didn't have the balls to hit it with a second contract. I covered incase it found a little support and then put in place a new short for if it fell below.
> 
> I'm treading just a little carefully!




*Pav*

The first contract was well in the money.(Around 80 ticks)
The risk on the second was a 35 tick risk. If it was taken up with a further move with momentum.
So I set it and went to bed! no need to have concern---well I didnt think so.
Thses moves with so much power and momentum are rare!! Position trade paradise.

Anyway Ive sent you a PM with regard to how Im looking at it from here.


----------



## pavilion103

Taken this setup early this evening. Initial stop already moved to limit risk. 

First trade since my June contract debacle on Friday night. By the way thanks for the help with that guys. Much appreciated


----------



## pavilion103

Good start - 60 ticks in 30 mins. Stop at breakeven. Can relax now.


----------



## tech/a

Haha love it.

FTSE up 36----- bored so I take a sauna.
Then your post!

Perfect timing!


----------



## pavilion103

tech/a said:


> Haha love it.
> 
> FTSE up 36----- bored so I take a sauna.
> Then your post!
> 
> Perfect timing!




No way was I going to miss a move tonight. Made sure I was in front of the screen for the first opportunity. 

Might read Weis book while I've got this open.


----------



## tech/a

pavilion103 said:


> No way was I going to miss a move tonight. Made sure I was in front of the screen for the first opportunity.
> 
> Might read Weis book while I've got this open.




Damn I've missed the trade of the century.


----------



## pavilion103

tech/a said:


> Damn I've missed the trade of the century.




haha

It did feel good to get this going in the right direction immediately

I've been seething over the weekend about not holding my other one longer. Not sure how I'll play this one.

I hope the market gets belted!!!


----------



## tech/a

Well Done Pav
Most expensive Sauna I've had in a while. 

Just got on this though
Will just have a short term trade
I think you got the best of this move.

Closed 10 ticks X 2


----------



## pavilion103

I thought $20 a week at Goodlife gym was expensive!!

Because I'm out of whack with the long term chart, I'm going to have to trade this differently I think. 


I'm not sure your thoughts but I really like the idea of exiting near a low (say 4 or 5 ticks near support) and then placing a new sell stop and a new initial stop. Obviously not a longer term play. 

This way I really limit the risk of giving back profit on the upside (in the most vulnerable area near support), but am in a great position to capitalise on a new break down if I can identify it. 

Not sure about the merits of this idea, but it appeals to me.

- - - Updated - - -

One other big thing I'm noticing is the popping of the stops. 

When I'm trading a breakout, having the entry a few ticks away has been much better than 1 or 2 ticks. 

Saved me on a couple of false breaks.


----------



## DJG

Well done to both Pav & Tech. I'll be watching eagerly to see how they unfold


----------



## pavilion103

My trade setup. 

I exited near the low after the big volume bar and then got in again in that tight little consolidation before it went lower.


----------



## Lone Wolf

Sim traded this. Got home from work too late for the first break, but caught the break of the large wedge at 6026 and rode it down to 5989.

But if trading was always this easy I wouldn't be doing this on the sim. Nice work Pav.


----------



## DJG

Good trading guys, regardless of sim or real account. Especially your nice double whammy Pav.   - Appears you sold out pretty damn close to the maximum of profit at the low and didn't even give back any profits, then stuck it to them with the re-enter after the consolidation

Also noticed your above post about placing your entry stop's a few ticks extra than normal. Seems your BUY STOP paid off by having it a couple of extra ticks higher, therefore not being triggered. Textbook!


----------



## pavilion103

Closed out 6004 while I was asleep


----------



## tech/a

pavilion103 said:


> Closed out 6004 while I was asleep




I particularly like the chart analysis (That which I can see)

The importance of the un folding story on the chart and the taking advantage of it
has been rewarded.


----------



## kid hustlr

Enjoying the thread boys.

Mind if I get your thoughts on the 10 year aussie bond mkt? Only posting because I value you're opinion.






the huge volume spikes in the daily are contract rollover.

EDIT: I generally find that the bond markets don't chart 'that well' when compared to say an equity index or a big commodity due to the smaller ranges, that being said there still looks to be some good break out opportunites, the volatility has really picked up over the last several weeks


----------



## tech/a

kid hustlr said:


> Enjoying the thread boys.
> 
> Mind if I get your thoughts on the 10 year aussie bond mkt? Only posting because I value you're opinion.
> 
> View attachment 52967
> View attachment 52968
> View attachment 52969
> 
> 
> the huge volume spikes in the daily are contract rollover.
> 
> EDIT: I generally find that the bond markets don't chart 'that well' when compared to say an equity index or a big commodity due to the smaller ranges, that being said there still looks to be some good break out opportunites, the volatility has really picked up over the last several weeks





Which timeframe?


----------



## kid hustlr

tech/a said:


> Which timeframe?




probably more so the 15 min and or the 60 min as its more applicable to trading the depth, the daily was more for context


----------



## CanOz

kid hustlr said:


> Enjoying the thread boys.
> 
> Mind if I get your thoughts on the 10 year aussie bond mkt? Only posting because I value you're opinion.
> 
> 
> 
> the huge volume spikes in the daily are contract rollover.
> 
> EDIT: I generally find that the bond markets don't chart 'that well' when compared to say an equity index or a big commodity due to the smaller ranges, that being said there still looks to be some good break out opportunites, the volatility has really picked up over the last several weeks





Learn how to spread. I have it on good word that the prop boys teach the recruits how to bill spread because it's easier than directional plays....maybe some ex prop guys could teach you.

The prop guys don't trade like this, it's a retail thing.

CanOz


----------



## kid hustlr

CanOz said:


> Learn how to spread. I have it on good word that the prop boys teach the recruits how to bill spread because it's easier than directional plays....maybe some ex prop guys could teach you.
> 
> The prop guys don't trade like this, it's a retail thing.
> 
> CanOz




Yep I understand this, was just interested on the guys thoughts.

- - - Updated - - -

Interesting possible short set up on NK225 if it breaks lower.


----------



## CanOz

kid hustlr said:


> Yep I understand this, was just interested on the guys thoughts.




I also heard that recently the Bill Spreaders were really doing well in all of this "mis-priced" mess!


----------



## tech/a

In the 15 min frame there is a small rectangle which is my first starting place.
Sell and buy enough ticks above and or below not to be affected by stop covering.

The 15 min looks like a 5 wave completion with Volume over the bars in the rectangle supporting that.
The 60 min looks more like an ABC correction with volume supporting that--perhaps a little more in it to the upside but ultimately short in an overall corrective pattern in the down move.

Interested in how it pans out.


----------



## kid hustlr

thx Tech. Agreed completely on the 60 min, I want to sell it at some stage but I might need to sit on my hands.


----------



## pavilion103

Tech, will you be at the screen for the open this evening?

I might post some interesting thoughts on my trading yesterday also.

I spent too many bloody hours at the screen last night but worth it considering I spend 7.5 hours at one during the day for $300


----------



## tech/a

pavilion103 said:


> Tech, will you be at the screen for the open this evening?
> 
> I might post some interesting thoughts on my trading yesterday also.
> 
> I spent too many bloody hours at the screen last night but worth it considering I spend 7.5 hours at one during the day for $300




No Probably not!


----------



## kid hustlr

tech/Pav,

Do you find the recent volatility over the past few weeks has led to a more set ups and more profitable set ups than usual? Just looking over some charts and replaying some price action, I feel that your type of break out/pattern trading is very well suited to these conditions.

I guess ultimately my questions is, does higher volatility = higher profitability/opportunity?


----------



## kid hustlr

Example trade:

Tech/Pav I'm really enjoying this thread and I'd love to hear your thoughts on this trade.

Now I want to preface this by saying if every trade worked as well as this one I wouldn't be posting on an internet forum.

See trade below:




I used much smaller than my usual size for this one as it is not how I usually trade, I consider it an experiment. I'm just interested on hearing your guys thoughts and how/if you would have approached it in a similar way.

My thoughts were as follows:

Based on the volume and the price action yesterday (which I observed) I felt if we broke below the lower trend line then this was a sell. As I hinted at in the post above this, I feel the current climate is a good one for break out trading as markets are thinner and there seems to be more stops floating around which are obviously a big factor when looking for break outs.

Now we actually opened way below the trend line, I'm not sure if I should have just opened a sell immediately (I assume you guys do this?) Instead I looked for a retrace and then entered the sell @ 96.115. 

I set the stop @ 96.130 which truth be told is a purely arbitrary number. Effectively I just wanted to give my trade 'some room' that if it went against me slightly then I would be stopped out too early. I have no doubt I need to be more systematic/structured there.

Anyway, the trade turned around very quickly and went in my favour very nicely, in fact it was like a conspiracy how quick it went my way. 

Now I moved the initial stop to b/e once it was 2 ticks in my favour and decided to exit the trade based on what I deemed to be support from yesterday @ 96.085.

Now there were a couple of other factors in terms of watching the price action and the depth of market which made me more inclined to take this trade which I won't go into but I would love some thoughts opinions on if you think this was a decent R:R trade.


----------



## tech/a

> I guess ultimately my questions is, does higher volatility = higher profitability/opportunity?




It gives you more opportunity for larger R returns as there tends to be longer moves.
Flatter markets are harder to trade with less momentum.---I find.
But you can still make consistent gains when its flatter.
Often happens to me when I miss moves as I have on the last 2 nights.
But picked up $330 Yesterday for a few minutes and $166 Last night for similar.

Peanuts for some.

*To your trade*

Great identification of a topping pattern.
Triangle has a measured move so thats where id expect to be around when exiting.
Your entry was text book filling of gap. I personally set the "Logical" stop further outs so that stop
chasers dont get mine. If its 2 ticks ill go 4 or the otherside of a round number.
The key is moving to B/E.
You were very quick and Id probably wait a little longer.
I move to B/E when a current bar has closed in my direction--in the timeframe Im trading.

Interested in wether it completed the triangle move and if there was an exhaustion volume type signal of a pull up

My thoughts.


----------



## pavilion103

I've found that these trending days have allowed me to get in early in the day and hold my position longer without being stopped. Knowing that the spread of these bars could potentially be wider than usual gives me more confidence to hold. 

I really do need to adjust to the timeframe that I'm trading though. I want to focus more on picking up 10-30 points rather than trying to hit home runs all the time which won't happen. 

Really seeing the significance of the break even stop. Without it profitability would turn into loss.


----------



## kid hustlr

tech/a said:


> It gives you more opportunity for larger R returns as there tends to be longer moves.
> Flatter markets are harder to trade with less momentum.---I find.
> But you can still make consistent gains when its flatter.
> Often happens to me when I miss moves as I have on the last 2 nights.
> But picked up $330 Yesterday for a few minutes and $166 Last night for similar.
> 
> Peanuts for some.
> 
> *To your trade*
> 
> Great identification of a topping pattern.
> Triangle has a measured move so thats where id expect to be around when exiting.
> Your entry was text book filling of gap. I personally set the "Logical" stop further outs so that stop
> chasers dont get mine. If its 2 ticks ill go 4 or the otherside of a round number.
> The key is moving to B/E.
> You were very quick and Id probably wait a little longer.
> I move to B/E when a current bar has closed in my direction--in the timeframe Im trading.
> 
> Interested in wether it completed the triangle move and if there was an exhaustion volume type signal of a pull up
> 
> My thoughts.




Thanks tech, completely agreed about the gap fill and that was my view as well. I actually could have got in half a tick better but I didn't want to miss the trade. As an aside when I say "tick" I'm referring to 2 half ticks.

When you refer to the triangle having a measured move, are you referring to the fact that the 'range of the triangle' should set your exit target? For example if the triangle range is 8 ticks then the target is 8 ticks?

See below for the next hour or so of the market. I think I will work off 15 minute charts as I feel more comfortable with this time frame ( I can set + forget) and they also appear to create more pronounced patterns.




my plan is to continue with this form of trading on a very small basis relative to my usual size. Especially with the high volatility and thin markets at the moment there is most definitely opportunities.


----------



## tech/a

Bounced back and filled the gap in a hurry.
The 2 wide range bars at the reversal are the key.
Looks like a failed breakout.---more consolidation but it wants to go lower.
Would be interested in more of the same chart.

For FTSE I use a 9 min for patterns .
but each will have their favorite.


----------



## mr. jeff

pavilion103 said:


> I've found that these trending days have allowed me to get in early in the day and hold my position longer without being stopped. Knowing that the spread of these bars could potentially be wider than usual gives me more confidence to hold.
> 
> I really do need to adjust to the timeframe that I'm trading though. I want to focus more on picking up 10-30 points rather than trying to hit home runs all the time which won't happen.
> 
> Really seeing the significance of the break even stop. Without it profitability would turn into loss.




For 30 pts what are your stops when opening the trade - R:R ?


----------



## pavilion103

mr. jeff said:


> For 30 pts what are your stops when opening the trade - R:R ?




My main focus is low risk setups. If I can go very tight in a low risk area I will.
But usually I'm comfortable with about 10-15 points. When I start getting larger than this I feel uneasy. 

The one the other night was 17 points and that yielded a 60 point move in the next 30 mins. 

Look to then to reduce risk ASAP. Then stop to BE when I can. 

My main focus is on maintaining this discipline. If I make 90 points on day that's when my expectancy starts to look good.


----------



## pavilion103

Also I don't have selling targets as such, I look mainly at the price action and volume. But I'm learning that with futures I have to give strong weighting to those areas of support and resistance so maybe a little easier to determine the likely RR prior to the trade.


----------



## tech/a

pavilion103 said:


> My main focus is low risk setups. If I can go very tight in a low risk area I will.
> But usually I'm comfortable with about 10-15 points. When I start getting larger than this I feel uneasy.
> 
> The one the other night was 17 points and that yielded a 60 point move in the next 30 mins.
> 
> Look to then to reduce risk ASAP. Then stop to BE when I can.
> 
> My main focus is on maintaining this discipline. If I make 90 points on day that's when my expectancy starts to look good.




The point is its trading R/R not simply the initial R/R.
If you can get on momentum then you can move your stop to B/E pretty quickly.

As you saw PAV in the Trading exercise its a very powerful tool to skew results.
After all its about profit not being right!

Good to see you have adopted it in all your trading.


----------



## pavilion103

tech/a said:


> *The point is its trading R/R not simply the initial R/R.*
> If you can get on momentum then you can move your stop to B/E pretty quickly.
> 
> As you saw PAV in the Trading exercise its a very powerful tool to skew results.
> After all its about profit not being right!
> 
> Good to see you have adopted it in all your trading.





Very significant point.

- - - Updated - - -



tech/a said:


> The point is its trading R/R not simply the initial R/R.
> If you can get on momentum then you can move your stop to B/E pretty quickly.
> 
> As you saw PAV in the Trading exercise its a very powerful tool to skew results.
> After all its about profit not being right!
> 
> *Good to see you have adopted it in all your trading.*





That's because it works!!

Contrary to what some on the forum may believe (and as you know) I haven't simply followed your methodology/philsophy blindly. I've read over 30 trading books and other resources. Tested many of these things over a couple of years and then come to the conclusions that I have. It just happens that the things you have taught me happen to be VERY EFFECTIVE and you've led me down a great path. Your way of trading MAKES SENSE. It resonated with me from the beginning. 

Futures is a whole new ball game but many things like risk management remain the foundation.


----------



## kid hustlr

tech/a said:


> Bounced back and filled the gap in a hurry.
> The 2 wide range bars at the reversal are the key.
> Looks like a failed breakout.---more consolidation but it wants to go lower.
> Would be interested in more of the same chart.
> 
> For FTSE I use a 9 min for patterns .
> but each will have their favorite.




See chart now. This is at 12 oclock. Very choppy day, very thin market, any serious buyers/sellers are pushing the market 5-6 half ticks.

Interested to hear your opinion on what I wrote on the chart, if we were to consolidate here I was wondering about another short position @ 96.06. Its the top of the wide range, heavy volume bar. Given the volume which has traded below 96.06 however, both in that high range bar, as well as the action several days ago, I believe there would some buying support which would prevent any breakout? As such I'm hesitant to take this trade.




Also tech/pav, any suggested reading to get me up to speed on this. Tech I've read most of your threads/stickes, but any other books you recommend?


----------



## DJG

Here's my view on your chart Kid Hustlr - I'm no where near as experienced as Pav and Tech but here's another view if you want it.

I'll be interested to see how it plays out.


----------



## mr. jeff

tech/a said:


> The point is its trading R/R not simply the initial R/R.
> If you can get on momentum then you can move your stop to B/E pretty quickly.




Yes agreed and understood, but when you take a trade you must have some expectancy as a target
ie. right now on XAO someone might take a trade at 4700 looking for a rebound up again to 4745 
that is 45 pts  -you would not be looking for a move of 150pts unless using  trailing stop.

But what is the stop initially at which you will consider the rebound has not occurred ? I know it depends on current market action to a degree, but is it 5/10/50 pts -  here if you were chasing those 45 pts, then 15 would be about right... 1r:3r with move stop up to 4700 once price reaches 4715


----------



## tech/a

> Also tech/pav, any suggested reading to get me up to speed on this. Tech I've read most of your threads/stickes, but any other books you recommend?




Youll hear this from time to time but really my style has been developed over 20 yrs.
Its simply *Patterns Support/Resistance Chart landscape *(Where the chart is at in terms of trend)
and for right hand page stuff *Range and Volume.*

Then and very importantly its *trade and portfolio management*.
You wont profit without BOTH.

So anything you can get your hands on --- on those topics--for discretionary trading this way.
Ive highlighted them.

Finally find people that do trade this way and pay to watch them and learn---I did and *still do!*


----------



## CanOz

I don't know how you can analyze this chart if you don't know what time frame and instrument it is. Its fine to be generic and say that volume analysis works on all instruments on all time frames, but session opens and closes matter...news etc. 

Or did i miss something...is this CL?

CanOz


----------



## boofis

CanOz said:


> Or did i miss something...is this CL?
> 
> CanOz




I could be wrong but I think it's the AUS 10 year bond....is there a prize for the correct guess  *fingers crossed* 

If it is, they typically don't chart well cause the majority of people trading them aren't retail  mind you, they're better than the US 10 yr.


----------



## tech/a

mr. jeff said:


> Yes agreed and understood, but when you take a trade you must have some expectancy as a target
> ie. right now on XAO someone might take a trade at 4700 looking for a rebound up again to 4745
> that is 45 pts  -you would not be looking for a move of 150pts unless using  trailing stop.
> 
> But what is the stop initially at which you will consider the rebound has not occurred ? I know it depends on current market action to a degree, but is it 5/10/50 pts -  here if you were chasing those 45 pts, then 15 would be about right... 1r:3r with move stop up to 4700 once price reaches 4715




Jeff

I dont pre empt possible moves I simply dont know.
Last nights little banter between T/H and I about where it was going wasnt just a joke!
What I do know is my final bottom line after trades are closed.
Its not a system so I have no blue print.---well I do from my own trades and others I pay to watch!

I know its difficult to get your head around but im looking for potential Momentum.
Last nights trade I didnt get it---got bored and left.
*PAV DID!*

So the width of initial stop doesnt matter unless your so wrong it doubles back on you so quick you cant move your stop! Frankly do that a few times and you better look at how you *anticipate * momentum.

There is only 1R I care about and thats the accumulated Loss R.
Rarely do I get taken out from scratch.

I know where your coming from but Im more fliud than what your suggesting.


----------



## kid hustlr

boofis said:


> I could be wrong but I think it's the AUS 10 year bond....is there a prize for the correct guess  *fingers crossed*
> 
> If it is, they typically don't chart well cause the majority of people trading them aren't retail  mind you, they're better than the US 10 yr.




lol, yeah its Aussie 10 year bonds. I think I wrote that in one of my earlier posts.

Interesting thoughts DJG, I tend to agree.

- - - Updated - - -



CanOz said:


> I don't know how you can analyze this chart if you don't know what time frame and instrument it is. Its fine to be generic and say that volume analysis works on all instruments on all time frames, but session opens and closes matter...news etc.
> 
> Or did i miss something...is this CL?
> 
> CanOz




Completely agree with this, but that's not to say there aren't principles which are consistently effective. One thing which appeals to me and in my limited experience is looking at periods of high volume vs low volume. One of the major reasons I took that trade this morning was the heavy volume that had gone on yesterday (there was serious buying on the DOM most of the day). I felt if we broke through the lower end there was a chance I might catch some stops.


----------



## CanOz

Ahh, thanks for the explanation guys...


----------



## kid hustlr

Just to finish up the discussion, here's how the day finished. we bounced at 96.06 (which I did note as an important area) and ran all the way back up the top of the recent range.

Now to look for the next trade!

tech/a, pav, im planning on post more trades in this thread, if it bothers you let me know and I will post in a different thread.


----------



## tech/a

Look at both ends of that move!
stops spiked on both!

Nice trade.
very organised.


----------



## kid hustlr

tech/a said:


> Look at both ends of that move!
> stops spiked on both!
> 
> Nice trade.
> very organised.




Yeah it was an excellent example of opportunities. I think watching the depth would have really helped experienced trader here as well. There was a heavy seller in the contract around the 96.105 mark. They would wait, let it retrace back to them and then hit it again for a few half ticks. Once he cleared out the last 4-5 bars were completely bid up as a combination of (in my opinion) proper paper buying and stops. I almost set a buy stop order at 96.11 but I felt the risk/reward was not there.


----------



## tech/a

Got home early today for a run and managed to get on.
Just a 2 Mini's
Will be back to see how I go.
The risk is a test of this low and I get taken out at B/E 
If there isn't enough momentum in the longs.




Thought there was a FTSE thread?


----------



## CanOz

Dax is a bit bullish this arvo, filling the gap pre cash, then testing the prior POC after the open, to break higher and head for 7900 ish...suspect the FTSE must be doing similar?


----------



## mr. jeff

No the FTSE is hitting it's head on a short time resistance level
If that breaks there is a canter to be had


----------



## Trembling Hand

kid hustlr said:


> Just to finish up the discussion, here's how the day finished. we bounced at 96.06 (which I did note as an important area) and ran all the way back up the top of the recent range.
> 
> View attachment 53009




Three hits into support with divergence. 

Thats a futs Bread and butter trade. Size up and hang on.


----------



## CanOz

Suspect this is heading to 7950 ish, which is a "naked" Point of Control. Means that value there has not been re-tested...more likely to be re-visited if ifs very prominent.

This would be a nice 100 point move if it does it.

CanOz


----------



## tech/a

Back from Run just in time and closed out
happy with that.
Shower and out to Dinner.




I'm done for the night.


----------



## pavilion103

Good work.

6 point loss total for me over 2 trades. Heading out now.


----------



## pavilion103

Big triangle on FTSE. Dam I'm not home


----------



## mr. jeff

pavilion103 said:


> Big triangle on FTSE. Dam I'm not home




I bought the break of 6120
looking for 6180 possibly 6205
moving well
hope the food was worth it eating in does have an upside and friends hate it when you are checking your phone every 15 minutes...!


----------



## skyQuake

pavilion103 said:


> Big triangle on FTSE. Dam I'm not home




Lol, I check it up, saw the triangle poised to break. Then realized i was looking at 15min delayed data


----------



## CanOz

SuperTrend caught both those moves, i mean the MEAT of the move so far...Too bad it sucs in the chop hey!


----------



## pavilion103

My friends hate it when I'm on the phone checking my trades. I had someone over last week and had the laptop open in the background. That was the night I made 150 ticks so I was making any excuse to check


----------



## pavilion103

Just got home. 

Having a think about my time in futures since having started this thread. 

With EOFY upon us, I will be starting my new excel sheet for stocks and futures will be added now. 

I will be keeping very thorough stats of each night's trading (won't be trading every night).


I'm actually really glad that the market topped out as it did and got me thinking about futures. It wasn't really on my radar when I was trading the portfolio with Tech and making some good returns. This opens a whole new world of trading to me. 

It is an incredible eye opener. For someone with a small account, making a couple of thousand in a night isn't something minor. I'm super excited about the opportunities ahead in futures. I can see realistic opportunities to make large amounts of money with a lowish risk strategy. I'm not sure if I should chronicle my results on here or not. But it will be interesting to see how it progresses when compared to my first post in here, having no idea about futures at all.


----------



## CanOz

I think you and Tech are doing a great job of showing the potential that trading futures has. I think also that you doing well because you are patient and waiting for the trades to come to you, you're not sitting in front of the screen all day. 

There's some good potential there in part time trading, some nice income on the side whilst the EOD stuff is a bit tougher.

Well done Pav, I admire your patience.

CanOz


----------



## tech/a

> I'm actually really glad that the market topped out as it did and got me thinking about futures. It wasn't really on my radar when I was trading the portfolio with Tech and making some good returns. This opens a whole new world of trading to me.
> 
> It is an incredible eye opener. For someone with a small account, making a couple of thousand in a night isn't something minor. I'm super excited about the opportunities ahead in futures. I can see realistic opportunities to make large amounts of money with a lowish risk strategy. I'm not sure if I should chronicle my results on here or not. But it will be interesting to see how it progresses when compared to my first post in here, having no idea about futures at all.




Futures aren't the holy grail of trading opportunities.
They are subject to periods of flatness and very low volatility.

But you can trade many ways with far more flexibility.
You can adapt to condition and be in touch with markets on a more intimate level.
Long/Short/position/short term/very short term/robotic/systematic


----------



## kid hustlr

Trembling Hand said:


> Three hits into support with divergence.
> 
> Thats a futs Bread and butter trade. Size up and hang on.




I see the three hits into support, but you could explain the divergence?

- - - Updated - - -

Just running over the charts for possible set ups this morning. Interested to hear opinions on my thoughts in the posted chart. Once again aussie 10 years.


----------



## pavilion103

tech/a said:


> Futures aren't the holy grail of trading opportunities.
> They are subject to periods of flatness and very low volatility.
> 
> But you can trade many ways with far more flexibility.
> You can adapt to condition and be in touch with markets on a more intimate level.
> Long/Short/position/short term/very short term/robotic/systematic




Agreed. 

It won't be my main method of making money from the markets but I am confident that with more hard work and study there are big opportunities there. 


I can see how someone with no understanding of high probability setups and risk management would be eaten alive in the futures. It can be brutal.


----------



## Trembling Hand

kid hustlr said:


> I see the three hits into support, but you could explain the divergence?




Have a look at the three falls each one is getting shorter from peak to trough and each bounce back is getting back at least 50 % of the fall with the last one coming after a lot of consolidation and not getting any follow through on the fall. That is divergence - sellers running out of steam and any new ones at risk of getting pushed offside very easily.

This is how you play fades AND breakouts IMO (breakouts happen from failure at the other extreme).




Or i could just put an indicator on it,


----------



## CanOz

There is also a volume divergence there....


----------



## kid hustlr

CanOz said:


> There is also a volume divergence there....




Yeah I saw the volume divergence but TH's point is excellent and I appreciate him taking the time to post a pic. This is an excellent thread guys.


----------



## Joules MM1

CanOz said:


> the ability to spot a trend day before you get caught trying to fade the whole thing....




a prime lesson to learn....


----------



## pavilion103

Yep. No trending tonight so didn't bother.


----------



## tech/a

pavilion103 said:


> Yep. No trending tonight so didn't bother.




A bit just then!
Testing tonight's low


----------



## pavilion103

tech/a said:


> A bit just then!
> Testing tonight's low




Nice and obvious little setup. 

I got bored and turned it off before dinner


----------



## CanOz

Actually i'm feeling ok about the markets at the moment, slightly bullish....we seem to be accepting value where we are at the moment...perhaps we'll push a little higher yet after all.

These boring times still have a story to tell. Trade is paced, not rushed. Whatever is for sale, the price seems agreeable by both parties.



CanOz


----------



## pavilion103

Saw this JUST as I was turning off my phone and going to bed. Got on the wide spread bar. Stop to BE. Wasn't sure whether to take 15 ticks or let it run over night. Only trade of the night.




- - - Updated - - -

Hadn't realised on the hourly chart it's near a top. Probably would have just taken the 15 or 17 ticks. Ah well. Nothing lost.


----------



## pavilion103

And I'm out.

Silly oversight by me. 

$250 in 5 mins would have been nice!


----------



## mr. jeff

Everything is about on the point of hitting major resistance
I'm hanging to get a huge short on but just can't see the case quite yet.
XAO not there yet, probably at 4870 in the morning with a big green candle up saying blow me out!
When every market is pushing up with this action shorts just don't look likely. 
But when you don't take a trade, that is the one that goes - allegedly.
I have been sitting and waiting patiently.NEarly there.
Up markets are boring imo.


----------



## kid hustlr

pavilion103 said:


> And I'm out.
> 
> Silly oversight by me.
> 
> $250 in 5 mins would have been nice!




jeepers Pav looks like you were a little unlucky? Did you get stopped at break even? Looks like your stop was the low on the retrace?

Also sent you a PM btw.


----------



## kid hustlr

Tech/Pav:

Is this another example of _generally_ what you are looking for? This is a 15 min SPI chart.

My thoughts on the chart


----------



## tech/a

kid hustlr said:


> Tech/Pav:
> 
> Is this another example of _generally_ what you are looking for? This is a 15 min SPI chart.
> 
> My thoughts on the chart
> 
> View attachment 53046




Not enough volume overnight to do any meaningful analysis. SPI will be affected by the bourses overnight.

But the consolidation you show is pretty obvious if you take all 4 bars from open in context.
The open takes out long stops and closes on high volume halfway in range. That is a good signal for me to buy the top of that bar. If you look at a 3 or 5 min chart Ill bet you see a low risk entry.

The next bar is the thrust bar testing the high of the consolidation area.
The next bar takes it out on lowish volume without giving up a close below the impulse bars close.
The next two bars IMPORTANTLY test the high on lowish volume without closing below the close of the impulse bar. The Box you have drawn is another trade setup --long. Volume launches it from there.


----------



## Trembling Hand

tech/a said:


> Not enough volume overnight to do any meaningful analysis. SPI will be affected by the bourses overnight.




That is why Asia Futs charts should look like this when trading them.





- - - Updated - - -

By the way I would be very cautious if trading the SPI today. Its been know to do crazy thing on the last day of the fin year. Evil hedgies and their games.

Unless you like that thing of course.


----------



## baby_swallow

Trembling Hand said:


> ... Evil hedgies and their games.




They did that on ES last night.  An opening Gap trade setup was a no brainer but it didn't fill.
Gap players have their ar$e kicked (including mine ).


----------



## kid hustlr

Great analysis tech/a appreciated. Agreed the overnight high is off far lesser importance based on the low volume but if nothing else it may add another level of confirmation to a break out trade although clearly it's of little value.

Interesting how you talk about (they take out the 'long stops on open') This is the mindset I think good futures traders have - at the end of the day this is war and you are trying to take someone else's money.

- - - Updated - - -

Interesting you would buy the first bar, its a pretty solid reversal but it can get so messy/crazy in the open I don't feel it has a  great risk/reward?

- - - Updated - - -



Trembling Hand said:


> That is why Asia Futs charts should look like this when trading them.
> 
> View attachment 53050
> 
> 
> - - - Updated - - -
> 
> By the way I would be very cautious if trading the SPI today. Its been know to do crazy thing on the last day of the fin year. Evil hedgies and their games.
> 
> Unless you like that thing of course.




No way I'd trade the SPI ever to be honest, bunch of algo hicks


----------



## kid hustlr

tech/a said:


> But the consolidation you show is pretty obvious if you take all 4 bars from open in context.
> The open takes out long stops and closes on high volume halfway in range. That is a good signal for me to buy the top of that bar. *If you look at a 3 or 5 min chart Ill bet you see a low risk entry*.




In the interest of completion.

The duck has feathers.


----------



## tech/a

kid hustlr said:


> In the interest of completion.
> 
> The duck has feathers.
> 
> View attachment 53058




My buy would be the Top of the bar 2 back from your buy point.
Less risk.
Stop 3 ticks under the low. then move to B/E
The bar after your buy bar.


----------



## pavilion103

kid hustlr said:


> jeepers Pav looks like you were a little unlucky? Did you get stopped at break even? Looks like your stop was the low on the retrace?
> 
> Also sent you a PM btw.




Bloody heck!
Could have easily made my entry 68 instead of 69. Low was 68.5. 
Unlucky but that's the way it goes. These frustrations will occur.
Just happy I did everything right. Identified the opportunity with momentum. Got on it. Eliminated risk early. On another day that's 30 or 40 points.

I'll check the PM. I've been a bit slack!


----------



## kid hustlr

Boys, one more and I'll leave you alone for the weekend.

I'm very interested to get your thoughts on the below chart. its a 60 min chart on the Aussie 3 year bond futures. Now these typically don't chart well (tight ranges, lots of chop, little breakout opportunities) but I want to check if my understanding of the high volume/wide range bars is on par with how you see it. See chart below which provides my thoughts/context.


----------



## tech/a

kid hustlr said:


> Boys, one more and I'll leave you alone for the weekend.
> 
> I'm very interested to get your thoughts on the below chart. its a 60 min chart on the Aussie 3 year bond futures. Now these typically don't chart well (tight ranges, lots of chop, little breakout opportunities) but I want to check if my understanding of the high volume/wide range bars is on par with how you see it. See chart below which provides my thoughts/context.
> 
> View attachment 53060




I find Candles hard to look at prefer bar charts.
But I agree generally with your findings.
The secret is the following bar from the wide range high volume.(Very high volume really!)
If it gives back little or nothing you are pretty safe to call it an impulse move in the direction of trend and is very likely to keep running

If it doubles back more than half and closes less than half of the range of the wide range bar then its weak and not likely to be an impulse regardless of this bar (the one that doubles back) volume.
mind you higher volume is worse.


----------



## pavilion103

FTSE short - 6210

Chart to come after gym


----------



## pavilion103

Stop to breakeven. Now no risk. 

Triple top on the weekly chart. This top is obvious on the daily chart too. I'm not sure about the longer term implications. 

I'm not sure what that huge volume bar from Friday's trading indicates on the weekly chart. Will watch price around there and see if it moves through. Not sure how wide the spread will be in today's action. 

My main issue is how long to hold for. I don't see any signs of volume or reversal to indicate a change at the moment. Will watch this. 

Happy to have identified momentum and stop to break even.


----------



## CanOz

hmmmm.....interesting reversal


----------



## pavilion103

Stopped. 

I should have paid more attention to the volume with a zoomed in chart of today's action (5 min). 

Some heavier volume on the fall to 6180 - 6160

I think I need to take a shorter term approach to my exits. I let 40 points slip away. 

Shouldn't have come out of this with less than 30 points!!

I'll certainly learn from this. It's only the beginning of my journey!


----------



## tech/a

pavilion103 said:


> Stopped.
> 
> I should have paid more attention to the volume with a zoomed in chart of today's action (5 min).
> 
> Some heavier volume on the fall to 6180 - 6160
> 
> I think I need to take a shorter term approach to my exits. I let 40 points slip away.
> 
> Shouldn't have come out of this with less than 30 points!!
> 
> I'll certainly learn from this. It's only the beginning of my journey!




Don't be too hard on yourself.
Better than a loss!

Haven't even opened my chart.


----------



## mr. jeff

pavilion103 said:


> Stopped.
> 
> I should have paid more attention to the volume with a zoomed in chart of today's action (5 min).
> 
> Some heavier volume on the fall to 6180 - 6160
> 
> I think I need to take a shorter term approach to my exits. I let 40 points slip away.
> 
> Shouldn't have come out of this with less than 30 points!!
> 
> I'll certainly learn from this. It's only the beginning of my journey!




Are you going to try and take the points back short from 6280 down to 6250 ?! It could be overextended!


----------



## pavilion103

mr. jeff said:


> Are you going to try and take the points back short from 6280 down to 6250 ?! It could be overextended!




Out for dad's birthday so won't be back tonight. Had my opportunity for the night.

Will check it later.


----------



## beachlife

pavilion103 said:


> Stop to breakeven. Now no risk.
> 
> My main issue is how long to hold for. I don't see any signs of volume or reversal to indicate a change at the moment. Will watch this.
> 
> Happy to have identified momentum and stop to break even.
> 
> View attachment 53109




You're right, there is nothing on that chart at that time that suggests where it will go, but there was a nice high in that lower consolidation to put a trailing stop above that would have returned close to 1x risk.  There is also a clue that the volume during the fall didnt increase and fell away during consolidation, and it was much lower than the first couple of bars.  Nothing concrete but a few signs that the fall may not have much behind it that would warrant a trailing stop.

Seems you didnt have a target in mind either.  So no trailing stop and no target.  Maybe they should be a part of your trading plan.

Better luck with the next one.


----------



## CanOz

Here's three ideas for a stop, SAR, ATR, MA...plus the one you mentioned, a smaller time frame


----------



## pavilion103

beachlife said:


> You're right, there is nothing on that chart at that time that suggests where it will go, but there was a nice high in that lower consolidation to put a trailing stop above that would have returned close to 1x risk.  There is also a clue that the volume during the fall didnt increase and fell away during consolidation, and it was much lower than the first couple of bars.  Nothing concrete but a few signs that the fall may not have much behind it that would warrant a trailing stop.
> 
> Seems you didnt have a target in mind either.  So no trailing stop and no target.  Maybe they should be a part of your trading plan.
> 
> Better luck with the next one.




The problem with this trade is that I was looking at the daily chart and thinking it might be a position trade if it continued to fall so I wanted to give it room. I thought a low risk setup on the daily chart might be an ok play. 

But agree that there were some signs and a place to trail it. I was thinking larger time frame which didn't eventuate!


----------



## CanOz

beachlife said:


> Maybe they should be a part of your trading plan.




Is there a trading plan?


----------



## tech/a

PAV

Knew what to look for just that he didn't trust it.

Volume
Oscillators far too slow .

I don't think it's a longer term short yet.
More to this wave 4 yet.


----------



## mr. jeff

tech/a said:


> PAV
> 
> Knew what to look for just that he didn't trust it.
> 
> Volume
> Oscillators far too slow .
> 
> I don't think it's a longer term short yet.
> More to this wave 4 yet.




I don't understand wave patterns but looking at the chart I would say that it is a dangerous prospect either way at the moment with the aggressive moves in the recent time.
I have an opportunistic short at 6280 which was for 20 pts but I am concerned with this action and even though it is in the money it was a risky trade to take. 

I posed my question to Pav as a sarcastic remark then followed it up with trade - bad to trade for the sake of it.


----------



## CanOz

tech/a said:


> PAV
> 
> Knew what to look for just that he didn't trust it.
> 
> Volume
> Oscillators far too slow .
> 
> I don't think it's a longer term short yet.
> More to this wave 4 yet.




Who posted an Oscillator?


----------



## tech/a

CanOz said:


> Who posted an Oscillator?




Sorry
Trailing indicators
My error.


----------



## pavilion103

Guys, I'm no pro. 

I identified a good setup. I eliminated risk quickly and I was up 40 points in a short time. My lack of certainty and polish stopped me from taking a 30 point profit.

On other nights I've taken 60 and 100 points. Haven't had a big loss. 

Not too bad from someone who has been trading futures for maybe less than a month or so!

Take someone else with my level of experience and see how they go! This thread is simply a futures newbie on his journey, posting his progress. I wasn't expecting to be in decent profit as I am so early on.

Keep watching this thread for the next 6 months and we'll see how it goes!

Loving the opinions guys. Good to share thoughts on this. That's why I started it!


----------



## tech/a

pavilion103 said:


> Guys, I'm no pro.
> 
> I identified a good setup. I eliminated risk quickly and I was up 40 points in a short time. My lack of certainty and polish stopped me from taking a 30 point profit.
> 
> On other nights I've taken 60 and 100 points. Haven't had a big loss.
> 
> Not too bad from someone who has been trading futures for maybe less than a month or so!
> 
> Take someone else with my level of experience and see how they go! This thread is simply a futures newbie on his journey, posting his progress. I wasn't expecting to be in decent profit as I am so early on.
> 
> Keep watching this thread for the next 6 months and we'll see how it goes!
> 
> Loving the opinions guys. Good to share thoughts on this. That's why I started it!




No you were looking longer term.
Don't worry about the woulda coulda shoulda.

How's your R/R look?
Pretty good I'd suggest.


----------



## beachlife

pavilion103 said:


> The problem with this trade is that I was looking at the daily chart and thinking it might be a position trade if it continued to fall so I wanted to give it room. I thought a low risk setup on the daily chart might be an ok play.
> 
> But agree that there were some signs and a place to trail it. I was thinking larger time frame which didn't eventuate!




Oh I get it, you are just looking to 5 min to time a better entry for longer term play?

If so then it might be better to get direction, place stop and position size from daily chart, then just time the entry from 5 min chart.

So perhaps your stop was too tight and your move to BE too soon if you have a longer term view of down.


----------



## tech/a

beachlife said:


> Oh I get it, you are just looking to 5 min to time a better entry for longer term play?
> 
> If so then it might be better to get direction, place stop and position size from daily chart, then just time the entry from 5 min chart.
> 
> So perhaps your stop was too tight and your move to BE too soon if you have a longer term view of down.




You could be right on every single assumption.

But the point is he is still in the game
Lost a little brokerage.
Isn't lamenting a loss.
Can re view and re set.


----------



## kid hustlr

Nice set up Pav and good trade if you ask me. I like the confirmation of the 60m chart combined with the 5 min. Could you go into a little more detail as to why you took the trade? I assume the reversal bar on slightly higher volume @ 5.30pm (Sydney time) had something to do with it but I'd love a detailed response. 

The main reason I ask is that most of your patterns tend to be continuation patterns where this is a reversal so I'm interested in your point of view.

Easy in hindsight for those to question why you didn't take the trade out earlier but if that consolidation breaks lower you look like a genius. It's a fine line!


----------



## pavilion103

I hope to get back to you in this and also your PM this evening. I've been at the screen for about 1 hour total in the last few trading evenings. Tonight in putting aside some time.


----------



## CanOz

kid hustlr said:


> Easy in hindsight for those to question why you didn't take the trade out earlier but if that consolidation breaks lower you look like a genius. It's a fine line!




Ummmm No, most of us were just trying to give Pav some ideas for stops or asking what the plan was?

I think its best if i just leave this thread to the OP and his mentor.

Ciao!

CanOz


----------



## kid hustlr

CanOz said:


> Ummmm No, most of us were just trying to give Pav some ideas for stops or asking what the plan was?
> 
> I think its best if i just leave this thread to the OP and his mentor.
> 
> Ciao!
> 
> CanOz




I wasn't having a go. I meant no offence. Was more just a fleeting comment.

---

Tech/Pav. I saw this on the open of the NK this morning. It reminded me of the example we were talking about on the SPI last week.

I don't trade the NK I just happened to see this unfolding. My thoughts on the chart. Is this a set up you would take?


----------



## Trembling Hand

kid hustlr that bar you have marked in your chart is absolutely not big volume.


----------



## kid hustlr

Trembling Hand said:


> kid hustlr that bar you have marked in your chart is absolutely not big volume.




v good point. I just glanced at it relative to todays volume. Looking back I can see its pretty standard.


----------



## pavilion103

CanOz said:


> Ummmm No, most of us were just trying to give Pav some ideas for stops or asking what the plan was?
> 
> I think its best if i just leave this thread to the OP and his mentor.
> 
> Ciao!
> 
> CanOz




Can, don't be silly. You're input is great. I enjoy reading your posts as well as the thoughts of others in here.

I hope you didn't think I was having a go at you or trying to shut you down!

I was simply stating before that I'm new to this and that there will be things that I overlook at times, and that people shouldn't hold me to a high standard in the early days.

I would consider myself one of the most open and teachable people on this forum and enjoy hearing the various opinions on here, from which I can then draw my own conclusions.

Feel free to share, knowing that its appreciated!


----------



## CanOz

Well here is today TPO chart for the FTSE....UK PMI out at 830 AM GMT as well...this could move the market out of the bracket area.


----------



## pavilion103

First setup of the night. 

Bought 6232. Stop 6224. 
Stopped moved to break-even within 2 bars on 5 min chart. 
Below is 10 min chart. 

Looking for potential target near 6260




- - - Updated - - -

Obviously a reversal. White line marked in goes back a little bit. Low risk area imo.


----------



## CanOz

waiting for another crack at the low....


----------



## pavilion103

Taken out at BE


----------



## pavilion103

2nd entry for the evening. Breakdown of range to the short side. 
Stop 1.5 points from BE. 
Good momentum in my favour. 





Just moved to BE.

- - - Updated - - -

Close to resistance/support area. Interesting to see how this reacts now. 

Down to 6218. My stop to 6230.

- - - Updated - - -

Sold out on heavy volume and possible reversal. 

16 point profit. 

Can always set another entry. 




- - - Updated - - -

Good result. Happy to take that.

Was really just looking for that move down to resistance and then see how it behaved there.


----------



## kid hustlr

Nice trades.

The second one is interesting, we are right at that consolidation zone from last night, it could easily break lower in a sharp fashion but I like the way you've constructed the trade(s). Take the 16 tick profit now then if she breaks again look to re-enter. Below 6210 it might be bombs away.

Edit:

Pav, thoughts on a buy stop @ 6231?


----------



## pavilion103

Funny you ask...

I just took a very very short one @ 6231


Looked a good setup to me. Took another 6.5 points and closed out. 






I only had a small target near that 6240 resistance area, but looking at the different timeframes 3 min and 5 min, looked like some supply on that widespread bar which closed in the middle, so just took my 6.5 points.  No point risking more for another 3-4.


That does me for tonight. Off to do something else......

21.5 points tonight (3 trades)


----------



## kid hustlr

pavilion103 said:


> Funny you ask...
> 
> I just took a very very short one @ 6231
> 
> 
> Looked a good setup to me. Took another 6.5 points and closed out.
> 
> View attachment 53141
> 
> 
> 
> I only had a small target near that 6240 resistance area, but looking at the different timeframes 3 min and 5 min, looked like some supply on that widespread bar which closed in the middle, so just took my 6.5 points.  No point risking more for another 3-4.
> 
> 
> That does me for tonight. Off to do something else......
> 
> 21.5 points tonight (3 trades)




Good night.

I was stopped at break even on the sim. In hindsight I think taking the ticks on offer was the better play that time given the previous consolidation area @ 6240 or so as you pointed out.

- - - Updated - - -

Tech/a et.al:

When you get a chance, as well as getting your thoughts on the Nikkei set up at the open from this morning, I'm interested as to whether you see the following chart the same way I do. I took a very small break out trade opportunity this afternoon in the aussie 10 year bonds and ended up scratching it because I had no confidence in the trade. The charts attached shows my thoughts. Is this how you view it?


----------



## CanOz

If thats the rejection of the lower bracket area then we should expect the top of the bracket to be tested....

Price needs to return and be accepted at 6239.5 ish first of course

CanOz


----------



## pavilion103

Couldn't help myself. Entered some shorts for tomorrow. Checked the FTSE and it just happened to be right at strong support. Check this out on the 15 min chart. 

Ripper entry. 6221, stop 6216. Stopped moved up within 1 bar. 

Might watch for a bit before bed. Almost time for sleep!!


Everything has gone right tonight for some small wins. 




- - - Updated - - -

Stuff it. I can't be bothered looking at the screen anymore. 

Out at 6229. 8 points on that one. 

Resistance at 6240 anyway so no likely big move worth staying up for. 

Finished 29 points up this evening. A good night for a small fish like me


----------



## kid hustlr

Found a corker on the open of the Dax.




Edit:

got the numbers wrong on the chart, its more like 14 ticks risk initially and 18 ticks or so locked up.


----------



## pavilion103

Good work. 

I likely won't be on tonight. 

I'll check it later and see how it's panned out.


----------



## mr. jeff

kid hustlr said:


> Found a corker on the open of the Dax.
> 
> View attachment 53152
> 
> 
> Edit:
> 
> got the numbers wrong on the chart, its more like 14 ticks risk initially and 18 ticks or so locked up.




Wow I hope you held into that wide sell down that was a very big move
= dollars for the week


----------



## kid hustlr

mr. jeff said:


> Wow I hope you held into that wide sell down that was a very big move
> = dollars for the week




I didn't get the final move. I should have re-entered again though it was an excellent set up.

My trade as marked, still need to work on the trailing stop and how it should be managed.


----------



## CanOz

Thats a nice Dax trade, straight from the open virtually.


----------



## tech/a

kid hustlr said:


> I didn't get the final move. I should have re-entered again though it was an excellent set up.
> 
> My trade as marked, still need to work on the trailing stop and how it should be managed.
> View attachment 53154





Great trade
Nothing wrong here.
other than you could have recognized the pattern for a continuation pattern
Volume decreasing as it rose.
I generally swap to a longer time frame if it runs and try and take out the noise of shorter time frames.

If you check out say a 9 min chart you'll see the exhaustion volume coming in at the most recent low. (Clearer)
That would have been my warning to set a stop.

Dont know that you'd have got a lot more in the reality of it.


----------



## kid hustlr

CanOz said:


> Thats a nice Dax trade, straight from the open virtually.




tx Can, was pretty much a carbon copy of what tech/a was talking about in a chart I posted on the SPI last week. only instead of buying we were selling!!!

As an aside, very crazy night, lots of volatility.


----------



## kid hustlr

tx Tech. In hindsight when I look back I'm kicking myself for trailing the stop so close, as you said its a pretty good continuation pattern and I could have just trailed the stop a little more relaxed than I did.

Mind you hindsight is 20/20 and if I could see into the future I'd have put money on the swannies last year.


----------



## CanOz

kid hustlr said:


> tx Can, was pretty much a carbon copy of what tech/a was talking about in a chart I posted on the SPI last week. only instead of buying we were selling!!!
> 
> As an aside, very crazy night, lots of volatility.




Yes, i'm very short a couple of stocks in the US so looking for a gap down to sell into...

On your trade i put an ATR stop on it and didn't do much better than you did...

CanOz


----------



## mr. jeff

CanOz said:


> Yes, i'm very short a couple of stocks in the US so looking for a gap down to sell into...
> 
> On your trade i put an ATR stop on it and didn't do much better than you did...
> 
> CanOz




There's a significant similarity in a few markets showing a solid resistance level, with a descending triangle. Could pop shortly... Whether it is Euro fear that helps it down or a stop-hunt higher I am not sure.


----------



## CanOz

mr. jeff said:


> There's a significant similarity in a few markets showing a solid resistance level, with a descending triangle. Could pop shortly... Whether it is Euro fear that helps it down or a stop-hunt higher I am not sure.




Yeah i noticed that, got the one on the ES outlined...sometimes those patterns are so well defined...my guess is for a messy break out ...lower


----------



## pavilion103

Big consolidation. Triangle.

Very tight range has formed.

Got home just in time. This will be interesting...


----------



## pavilion103

mr. jeff said:


> There's a significant similarity in a few markets showing a solid resistance level, with a descending triangle. Could pop shortly... Whether it is Euro fear that helps it down or a stop-hunt higher I am not sure.




Yes noticed this too. See above. Entry set.


----------



## CanOz

Looks like the ADP number thru the cat amongst the pigeons there on that little triangle thingy....trust those pesky news releases to screw up a good pattern....


----------



## pavilion103

Lost 9 points. Only trade for the night.

No opportunity to move the stop further.

That's disappointing  was looking forward to a nice juicy move!


----------



## CanOz

pavilion103 said:


> Lost 9 points. Only trade for the night.
> 
> No opportunity to move the stop further.
> 
> That's disappointing  was looking forward to a nice juicy move!




Too close to the econo news to trade really...


----------



## pavilion103

It's not looking like pushing up here.


----------



## mr. jeff

pavilion103 said:


> Lost 9 points. Only trade for the night.
> 
> No opportunity to move the stop further.
> 
> That's disappointing  was looking forward to a nice juicy move!




Hope I didn't sway your thinking I am sitting on a loss with a stop at 6226 just holding to let it play out.
Juicy moves are certainly great when they come along.


----------



## pavilion103

mr. jeff said:


> Hope I didn't sway your thinking I am sitting on a loss with a stop at 6226 just holding to let it play out.
> Juicy moves are certainly great when they come along.




Nah all good.

I saw it there standing out at me too.

Definitely wanted to take it!


----------



## kid hustlr

Thinking about opening a sell @ 6162 on the FTSE if it gets there if anyone is still awake.

EDIT:

maybe not, dont think there R:R is there and whilst the pattern formation is ok theres not really much volume confirmation.

bed time i think.


----------



## pavilion103

Triangle with bearish characteristics near the resistance level. 





- - - Updated - - -

An upthrust on big volume, no demand and most closing near lows.


----------



## kid hustlr

hahaha Pav we really do think a like. I'll let you take this one!


----------



## CanOz

More news out at 1000 EST as well....

I'm thinking we're going to re-test the bottom of the bracket area that we broke from...

Lets see...

CanOz


----------



## pavilion103

CanOz said:


> More news out at 1000 EST as well....
> 
> I'm thinking we're going to re-test the bottom of the bracket area that we broke from...
> 
> Lets see...
> 
> CanOz




Where do you get the upcoming news announcements from?

Might be handy for me to know!!


----------



## pavilion103

kid hustlr said:


> hahaha Pav we really do think a like. I'll let you take this one!




You picked the same setup? Looks toppy!!


----------



## kid hustlr

pavilion103 said:


> You picked the same setup? Looks toppy!!




Yeah see my post 3-4 posts above. I didn't like it based on the big consolidation area just below, didnt like the R:R. Looks like you're in though so GET DOWN!


----------



## CanOz

pavilion103 said:


> Where do you get the upcoming news announcements from?
> 
> Might be handy for me to know!!




I get mine from TradeTheNews.com but there are free sources around, pick a forex site, they all have them, and run Bloomberg radio on in the background...

This is setting up like a retest of the pattern breakout, on all the markets, ES, DAX, FTSE... so watch for a test...

CanOz


----------



## pavilion103

kid hustlr said:


> Yeah see my post 3-4 posts above. I didn't like it based on the big consolidation area just below, didnt like the R:R. Looks like you're in though so GET DOWN!




Good points. R:R not great! 

Maybe a bit of a marginal trade!


----------



## payday

Hi guys,
My first post here so go easy on me. I am a full time futures trader. Have been for 3 months now. So that gives me a lot of experience - ie take everything I say with a grain of salt. I have traded futures solely for the past 6 years or so. I started out trading Australian shares, then progressed up to CFD's, then discovered that I had a knack of big leverage and handling the many "kick you in the gonads" moments that the market gives you. It's funny but I can't really recall my first futures trade, but I knew that the things that I had learned from trading equities and watching chart patterns would be more highly magnified here in the futures market. The losses would be more, the volatility would be more, reversals would happen faster etc. But after 6 years of which 5 have been highly profitable and 1 year slightly unprofitable (2 FY's ago), I think I made the right move. For me, leverage has been kind to me. It certainly has magnified my losses but more so my profits. I am not a day trader. I tried my hand at watching the tick charts and trading gold and crude oil but found the concentration tough as missing just 1 or 2 trades a day would make all the difference in making that a profitable or nonprofitable day. I trade patterns and my main charts are the daily to look out for flags, pennants, inside days, wedges, triangles etc and divergences on the MACD. I also use MA's to look out for areas of support and resistance. I then "zoom in " on the 30 minute charts to look for entry levels and stop levels. I always set stops limit orders when I place my trade and I am often not even there when the trades are executed. Sounds reckless doesn't it? That's what works for me though. Takes the emotions out of it and allows me to focus on other objective trades. I am also greedy. I always want more. I do set a target limit order of where I think the trade will eventually end up, but I am not stupid enough to believe my own analysis so I always trail my stop down to lock in profits. I often give up a lot of profit in the pursuit of my fantastical, statistically minimal, optimistic target. That probably is the only remaining part of my trading that I haven't got down pat yet - what profit target am I content with? That is my next challenge. 
I love this game. That's why I quit my normal day job to do this. It pays more for a start, but I also enjoy it a lot more. And the only person I have to answer to is myself (and my wife if it all falls apart!) 
I have learnt these lessons over the years 
1) the market doesn't know who you are - or care for that matter
2) don't take it personally when you lose
3) the market is always there - if you miss a trade or get stopped out don't worry. Take the next one. Or the next one. You get the drift.
Patience has been my virtue. Practice has been the hallmark to my success. And I still practice. I still replay market data and look at trades that I missed and how to spot them earlier etc. I just love the boring, analytical, chart watching. Friends often ask me about how I trade, and I tell them in all honesty that I make money by watching squiggly lines on my computer screen. That's it. You just got to know what they are trying to tell you.


----------



## kid hustlr

pavilion103 said:


> Good points. R:R not great!
> 
> Maybe a bit of a marginal trade!




How did this one go for you? Looks like it might have gone ok?

As an aside, HUGE reversal bar just after midnight Sydney time, would have provided a great entry spot.

- - - Updated - - -

good to see you are going well payday. feel free to post some set ups so we can analyse together.


----------



## pavilion103

kid hustlr said:


> How did this one go for you? Looks like it might have gone ok?
> 
> As an aside, HUGE reversal bar just after midnight Sydney time, would have provided a great entry spot.
> 
> - - - Updated - - -
> 
> good to see you are going well payday. feel free to post some set ups so we can analyse together.




Did ok. Closed it before the break down because I wanted to go to bed and didn't want to just hold. Big reversal followed.

I like what the poster above said about the market and opportunities always being there, rather than worrying about missing out etc.

Might be back on tonight. Usually I am on Thursdays.


----------



## kid hustlr

I wont be on tonight unfortunately.

Tech, I don't trade the SPI yet I observed this set up this morning. Do you have a general rule for how many bars are required to warrant a 'consolidation pattern'?

See example in the chart below:


----------



## pavilion103

My question is how does reading volume on the open differ to reading volume during the day? as the first bar is always huge and then seems to decline. Is this distorted in terms of analyzing declining volume? Or is it still valid?


----------



## CanOz

Could be an inside day today boys, US holiday.

Global events could change that too...

Here's my take on the _possibilities_ for your market of choice...

CanOz


----------



## kid hustlr

yeah very good point Can, I need to be more aware of things like that.


----------



## CanOz

In addition to news, higher time frame analysis, no one has discussed trading multiple contracts. While this requires a larger account there are advantages to scaling multiples contracts...

There are three basic ways to do this:

1.) all in all out
2.) scale in scale out
3.) all in scale out

I prefer all in , scale out and here is why...

Here is a flag pattern, with a nice rejection candle, i go long, it takes 2 contracts off at 5 ticks...reverses and takes out my 5 tick stop loss....net 0, cost is brokerage

The advantage is that trading 4 contracts i can have another one ready for a take profit at 10 ticks, and then a runner. 

The disadvantage is if you don't get it right that often the full stops can hurt your average win to loss ratio.

Pretty sure most successful futures traders are trading multiples, but you need to know your market so that you can "usually" get those first 2 contracts off, MOST of the time.

CanOz


----------



## Trembling Hand

pavilion103 said:


> My question is how does reading volume on the open differ to reading volume during the day? as the first bar is always huge and then seems to decline. Is this distorted in terms of analyzing declining volume? Or is it still valid?




I often see people commenting on high volume bars in intraday futs contracts and just shake my head. The open is always high vol compared to the rest of the day. So if its always high vol what is unusual about it that needs special attention? IMO NOTHING! I mean thats the point of comment on high vole - its meant to be unusual. Its only needs attention if its  particularly high compared to *other opening bars*.

Same around contract roll. That U profile on daily futs contracts should be ignored. Its not real.


----------



## tech/a

Trembling Hand said:


> I often see people commenting on high volume bars in intraday futs contracts and just shake my head. The open is always high vol compared to the rest of the day. So if its always high vol what is unusual about it that needs special attention? IMO NOTHING! I mean thats the point of comment on high vole - its meant to be unusual. Its only needs attention if its  particularly high compared to *other opening bars*.
> 
> Same around contract roll. That U profile on daily futs contracts should be ignored. Its not real.




All sorts of covering and position jostling same at close.

Personally I look at what happens after volume of any sort (above average) but particularly around support/resistance or as you say where it is extraordinary.
While opening volume and range is generally faded it can and does supply good indication of a directional move. ( I see you highlighted this)
The first hr or so is the best for me on the FTSE but not always free to trade it.


----------



## skyQuake

As a follow up to Canoz's post, how do most ppl here trade futs? I had thought pyramiding = ideal since liquidity is generally there.


----------



## CanOz

There are two interest rate decisions today, UK and EU...

CanOz


----------



## pavilion103

CanOz said:


> There are two interest rate decisions today, UK and EU...
> 
> CanOz




Is there a time that they are usually due out? Or could it be any time. 

I really do need to get on top of this!


----------



## CanOz

pavilion103 said:


> Is there a time that they are usually due out? Or could it be any time.
> 
> I really do need to get on top of this!




http://www.dailyfx.com/calendar

Todays news...


----------



## pavilion103

Topping pattern on 5 min?


----------



## pavilion103

No good. Maybe waiting for the re-test of the highs would have been wise.


----------



## CanOz

pavilion103 said:


> No good. Maybe waiting for the re-test of the highs would have been wise.




the FTSE's been allot stronger than the DAX....


----------



## CanOz

CanOz said:


> the FTSE's been allot stronger than the DAX....




wow, Draghi's been jawboning the markets through the roof...

Hope no one was trying to fade that crap!

CanOz


----------



## pavilion103

Annoyed that I turned it off about an hour before the big breakout. Would no doubt have set a buy stop on that.

I have been much more successful buying a breakout of a right consolidation in the direction of the trend rather than the reversals. They have yielded some results but I need to be 100% focused on limiting the damage and staying in the game for big trending days!!


----------



## CanOz

pavilion103 said:


> Annoyed that I turned it off about an hour before the big breakout. Would no doubt have set a buy stop on that.
> 
> I have been much more successful buying a breakout of a right consolidation in the direction of the trend rather than the reversals. They have yielded some results but I need to be 100% focused on limiting the damage and staying in the game for big trending days!!




This is all news related and i don't know too many cowboys that trade this ... A thin market and a talkative central banker...what a combo


----------



## payday

CanOz said:


> A thin market and a talkative central banker...what a combo



Timed to perfection don't you think?


----------



## CanOz

payday said:


> Timed to perfection don't you think?




Lol...what are you saying payday?


----------



## mr. jeff

CanOz said:


> This is all news related and i don't know too many cowboys that trade this ... A thin market and a talkative central banker...what a combo




Making for a horrible choppy market I agree. I have stepped aside and am awaiting higher probability set-ups. 

Set the QE policy to "Ludicrous" and strap in.


----------



## pavilion103

All a big learning experience for me. This is why I started the thread because so much I'm unaware of. 

Interesting getting thoughts on the current market in previous posts.


----------



## CanOz

pavilion103 said:


> All a big learning experience for me. This is why I started the thread because so much I'm unaware of.
> 
> Interesting getting thoughts on the current market in previous posts.




Check your news Pav, tonight is the big one, *NFP*opcorn:

Unfortunately, or fortunately i should say I'll be here...sipping red wine and swapping stories with strangers.

Will be checking here for updates so please feel free to post lots of charts!

CanOz


----------



## kid hustlr

CanOz said:


> free to post lots of charts!
> 
> CanOz




I wont trade the FTSE tonight but here are some thoughts on my plans this afternoon. As always, thoughts are appreciated, otherwise I wouldn't post them!


----------



## CanOz

Guys, remember...there is no US lead as its the 4th of July hangover...also, we're entering into summer doldrums. Good time to get away from the market for a while and recharge. Don't burn yourselves out trading thin summer markets that chop around all day...

Been there, done that to death.

oh, by the way...."never short a dull market"

CanOz


----------



## mr. jeff

Just so I am prepared - if :

NFP is bad  = GOOD for markets due to more printing
NFP good   = GOOD for markets due to stronger market


----------



## kid hustlr

mr. jeff said:


> Just so I am prepared - if :
> 
> NFP is bad  = GOOD for markets due to more printing
> NFP good   = GOOD for markets due to stronger market




Not sure anyone knows what's going at this stage.

Just as a follow up to my post a few hours ago, im not sure I'll get either set up. I have the sell stop in place ready to sell it if we break but I don't think I'll buy if it bounces out. Doesn't look to have any buying momentum at all and the RSI made a lower low suggest there's no real divergences (which I agree with after looking at the chart). Most likely we will just grind around here until NFP. Should have gone to the pub!


----------



## pavilion103

CanOz said:


> http://www.dailyfx.com/calendar
> 
> Todays news...




Is the time of the announcement the local time (I.e the country that is announcing it?)

I saw the NFP is 12:30 in US. What time is that tonight?


----------



## pavilion103

Is this around 2am?


----------



## kid hustlr

NFP is 10.30pm our time.

theres a setting on the website which lets you set it to your time zone


----------



## boofis

pavilion103 said:


> Is this around 2am?




http://www.forexfactory.com/ and then just set your local time


----------



## skc

mr. jeff said:


> Just so I am prepared - if :
> 
> NFP is bad  = GOOD for markets due to more printing
> NFP good   = GOOD for markets due to stronger market




NFP is bad = BAD for markets as economy is crap.

NFP is good = BAD for markets as tapering will start sooner.

There's probabl a sweet spot there that's somewhat strong NFP, but not too strong. But really the market pretty much makes up its mind as it pleases.


----------



## pavilion103

What happens when there is big news like this?

Does everyone stalk the market and set buy/sell stops and hope they get taken on a big move? Or do people stay well clear?

If there was a tight range setup prior then it would be worth it wouldn't it? Say a 15 point risk for potentially many points? (I know I've made some assumptions here)

Am I missing something?


----------



## pavilion103

Do people on here listen live to the announcements? 
If so what site is good for it?


----------



## tech/a

pavilion103 said:


> Do people on here listen live to the announcements?
> If so what site is good for it?




Most will be factored into price before the announcement.
Shock moves only really occur if the news is at right angles to expectation.


----------



## boofis

pavilion103 said:


> What happens when there is big news like this?
> 
> Does everyone stalk the market and set buy/sell stops and hope they get taken on a big move? Or do people stay well clear?
> 
> If there was a tight range setup prior then it would be worth it wouldn't it? Say a 15 point risk for potentially many points? (I know I've made some assumptions here)
> 
> Am I missing something?




Generally, the market thins hugely, on instruments where there is usually 1000 on each bid/ask you might see 100 and in some cases only a handful of contracts. And usually big moves follow.


----------



## skc

pavilion103 said:


> What happens when there is big news like this?
> 
> Does everyone stalk the market and set buy/sell stops and hope they get taken on a big move? Or do people stay well clear?
> 
> If there was a tight range setup prior then it would be worth it wouldn't it? Say a 15 point risk for potentially many points? (I know I've made some assumptions here)
> 
> Am I missing something?




I'd suggest watching a big announcement first before trading it. What you might / will find is that...

1. Tight range before the announcement.
2. Order book thins out and the spread widens significantly before the announcement.
3. Potential false move each way minutes/seconds before the announcement to trigger buy/sell stops like what you are thinking of doing, and whip it back the other way just as quickly. You'd lose 15pts before you blink.
4. Initial reaction is often wrong.
5. Initial reaction, even if right, would retrace to offer lower risk entry a few bars later.
6. Your latency might increase substantially around the announcement.

So.. watch, learn, do. In that order.



pavilion103 said:


> Do people on here listen live to the announcements?
> If so what site is good for it?




Your best bet for free stuff might actually be twitter.

But if you want to trade the wild action immediately after the announcement - you need to watch the ladder rather than read the news.


----------



## kid hustlr

I'd sit it out Pav to be honest. I know for a fact the treasuries get HUGELY thin and I assume most equity markets are the same. If you're experienced thers definitely plays to be made but it can get super wild.

As an aside, your idea about setting stops above and below isn't the worst idea but its still palying with fire as crazy things can happen (whip up then whip back or sometimes guys go stop hunting just before the news). It varies from market to market but until you know the FTSE reacts post big data I'd sit on your hands.


----------



## skc

tech/a said:


> Most will be factored into price before the announcement.
> Shock moves only really occur if the news is at right angles to expectation.




The exact data cannot always be factored into the price. Often, the price will factor in the probability of certain announcement (e.g. 33% chance of a rate cut), and when the announcement comes out it moves to the actual data + whatever towards the next forward looking point.

So (relatively) large moves don't always need news to be completely out of expectation.


----------



## Trembling Hand

tech/a said:


> Most will be factored into price before the announcement.
> Shock moves only really occur if the news is at right angles to expectation.




Gee i don't know about that. Pretty much everyone of the traders you try and track with VSA game the news setups all week long.

I wouldn't take news ann lightly.


----------



## tech/a

Trembling Hand said:


> Gee i don't know about that. Pretty much everyone of the traders you try and track with VSA game the news setups all week long.
> 
> I wouldn't take news ann lightly.




Yeh I'd agree.
But my own personal findings are that most of the VSA hype around news is fading that news.
Both good and bad.
I don't need to explain trading methods of news to you.
I'm not saying ignore news but I am saying unless it's un expected it's probably factored in price.
If the news is ho hum then over reaction in price will often see any over enthusiasm long or short corrected.

So for me it's not news in isolation but the perception before and after.
You'll see that in price.
Just another chapter in the book.


----------



## kid hustlr

Thin trade + pre NFP gitters equals big ranges in the US treasuries. this is the 10 year. found the break out and then it ripped all the way back up in the blink of an eye.


----------



## pavilion103

Well that was an interesting experience


----------



## kid hustlr

Another week, another opportunity. No any huge data out tonight that I can see.

Tech, any chance you can help me with my queries in the picture below?


----------



## pavilion103

Nothing exciting me at the moment. I'm on the sidelines. I can't ascertain a clear trend.


----------



## tech/a

kid hustlr said:


> Another week, another opportunity. No any huge data out tonight that I can see.
> 
> Tech, any chance you can help me with my queries in the picture below?
> 
> View attachment 53223




A few notes.





Did it keep going?

- - - Updated - - -



pavilion103 said:


> Nothing exciting me at the moment. I'm on the sidelines. I can't ascertain a clear trend.




9 min.




Made up its mind to the down side
in 6394 short Stop 6399


----------



## tech/a

At B/E
not a lot happening.

out 6382
few bucks for a few minutes.


----------



## pavilion103

Haha almost identical trade Tech. 

Left chart = 3 min (see declining volume on rise)
Right chart = 5 min (see no demand bar. Loud and clear).

Now at 6375. Still holding. Stop at 6384.


----------



## skyQuake

Question for you gents and anyone trading the eurozone tonight:

Do you specifically focus on the FTSE or look at DAX, ES as well?

If answer to the above is yes, would you be trading both markets or just one? Eg looking for longs on the DAX because it is stronger, and looking for shorts on the FTSE because its weaker.


----------



## pavilion103

Got out 6379. Time to read a bit and then bed.


----------



## tech/a

skyQuake said:


> Question for you gents and anyone trading the eurozone tonight:
> 
> Do you specifically focus on the FTSE or look at DAX, ES as well?
> 
> If answer to the above is yes, would you be trading both markets or just one? Eg looking for longs on the DAX because it is stronger, and looking for shorts on the FTSE because its weaker.




Me only FTSE
I ave the DAX open but don't trade it.
See plenty of setups!

I like the FTSE it seems to conform to technical signals
Nicely and lumbers along like an Elephant on Valium.
My sorta speed!


----------



## pavilion103

Just FTSE for me too. I don't want to confuse myself with too much yet.


----------



## kid hustlr

Tech the trend did keep pushing up overnight.

Appreciate your thoughts, this 'no supply bar' thing is really starting to make sense to me.

Nice trading on the FTSE gentleman. I may have a dabble tonight I dare say.


----------



## tech/a

> Nice trading on the FTSE gentleman.




Sport!
Hardly a profession!



> this 'no supply bar' thing is really starting to make sense to me




Its not something you see in VSA teachings and certainly not an alert.
But it is an observation I pointed out to PAV a long time ago which acts as a very good indicator far more often than not.
It needs to be read in context to the trend in which it appears.
Youll often find it buried in consolidation patterns and the smaller the pattern the better the signal Long or Short in my view---and findings.
Acts as a very good signal bar and often has a confirmed stop level (IE another close by bar has the same low OR high.).
I just use the range of that bar as the signal bar---in the direction I expect price to move.


----------



## kid hustlr

A couple of great Britain specific data points out tonight, just something to consider when thinking about a position on the FTSE boys.


----------



## kid hustlr

Tempted to set a buy stop above the first 5 min bar but I'm concerned about the previous highs from Friday night., not sure how these are past areas of support/resistance influence the R:R.

Edit:

Might regret skipping this one!


----------



## kid hustlr

Man this is brutal to watch. Definitely let an opportunity slip here. Picture below shows where I would have entered, the 60 min chart shows the resistance just above which worried me.

Live and learn!


----------



## pavilion103

Holy crap. 

I DID take the trade. 

Panicked as the next bar started to reverse and got out around BE. 

Cannot believe I let my emotions take control. Usually I'm fairly good with that side of things.


----------



## pavilion103

Same bar that worried me too.


----------



## kid hustlr

Misery loves company Pav!

Next trade, next trade!


----------



## tech/a

Are we short now?
My stop is now B/E at 6476

On the 3 min chart you'll see the really low volume bar at 18.36
Went short a tick below the low of the previous bar when that was taken out.


----------



## skyQuake

tech/a said:


> Are we short now?
> My stop is now B/E at 6476
> 
> On the 3 min chart you'll see the really low volume bar at 18.36
> Went short a tick below the low of the previous bar when that was taken out.




You think the short has any legs? Imo everyone got stopped out already on the 18:50 shakeout bar


----------



## pavilion103

tech/a said:


> Are we short now?
> My stop is now B/E at 6476
> 
> On the 3 min chart you'll see the really low volume bar at 18.36
> Went short a tick below the low of the previous bar when that was taken out.




Yes I'm also in. Saw that bar and the following one on the 3 min chart.

I've got the 3,5 and 10 min open.

Obviously your teaching is getting through!!!


----------



## tech/a

pavilion103 said:


> Yes I'm also in. Saw that bar and the following one on the 3 min chart.
> 
> I've got the 3,5 and 10 min open.
> 
> Obviously your teaching is getting through!!!




Have another in the Q
at 6467 if it gets there.

- - - Updated - - -



skyQuake said:


> You think the short has any legs? Imo everyone got stopped out already on the 18:50 shakeout bar




Well its pretty lack luster!
At B/E its no real issue.
Note High Volume bar at 6.48 on the 3
Thats resisting at 6474


----------



## kid hustlr

tech/a said:


> Are we short now?
> My stop is now B/E at 6476
> 
> On the 3 min chart you'll see the really low volume bar at 18.36
> Went short a tick below the low of the previous bar when that was taken out.




Looks like this one is in the money, nice trade. I haven't really seen anything I feel comfortable trading, its a pretty slow grind at the moment.

Updated, wait a minute, here we go!


----------



## tech/a

Thought Id do something useful.


----------



## kid hustlr

tech/a said:


> Note High Volume bar at 6.48 on the 3
> Thats resisting at 6474




Tech,

This bar here you are talking about, obviously the high volume gives it significance, but am I correct in saying we only know its resisting based on the bar following it? Given that the following bar falls away pretty quickly its obvious that supply is great than demand.

*IF* the next bar had been a strong upthrust am I correct in saying that demand was swamping supply and that small range bar would act as support?


----------



## tech/a

Volume resistance is one of mine.
Its not a VSA alert.


----------



## tech/a

Perhaps this 9 min chart will show it better.
Its narrower on the 3 min If you have a look you'll see what i mean

I'm off to watch TV with both contracts with a stop at 6475
and a buy stop at 6445


----------



## pavilion103

I'm out


----------



## tech/a

pavilion103 said:


> I'm out




No Kahuna's!


----------



## kid hustlr

tech/a said:


> Volume resistance is one of mine.
> Its not a VSA alert.
> 
> 
> View attachment 53244




Appreciate your help tech.

One last one when you get a chance, the bar you have labelled "no demand" I understand what you are referring to (the low volume) yet how do we know this is a 'lack of demand' Up to that point the market has just been moving along in a trading range pattern. Is it the big reversal bar following which gives you the confidence to enter a short?

edit: the first 'no demand bar' @ 18.36


----------



## pavilion103

tech/a said:


> No Kahuna's!




Dammit.


----------



## tech/a

kid hustlr said:


> Appreciate your help tech.
> 
> One last one when you get a chance, the bar you have labelled "no demand" I understand what you are referring to (the low volume) yet how do we know this is a 'lack of demand' Up to that point the market has just been moving along in a trading range pattern. Is it the big reversal bar following which gives you the confidence to enter a short?
> 
> edit: the first 'no demand bar' @ 18.36




Yes thats right.
We don't know that it's no demand until proven.
We can anticipate that it is and that's what I did as price certainly wasn't making higher highs!
Every thrust was being met with selling resistance.
My short was placed low enough to indicate price was going lower.

As it turned out it wasn't decisive.


----------



## tech/a

tech/a said:


> Perhaps this 9 min chart will show it better.
> Its narrower on the 3 min If you have a look you'll see what i mean
> 
> I'm off to watch TV with both contracts with a stop at 6475
> and a buy stop at 6445
> 
> 
> View attachment 53245




Off to bed
Nice when all goes to plan.


----------



## pavilion103

Good work.

Impressive again.

My stop placement purely a lack of experience. Can't get it all right but this time I let an opportunity slip (particularly holding 2 contracts).

The ongoing experience is worth plenty!


----------



## statmech71

pavilion103 said:


> Yes I'm also in. Saw that bar and the following one on the 3 min chart.
> 
> I've got the 3,5 and 10 min open.
> 
> Obviously your teaching is getting through!!!




Pav/Tech,

firstly congratulations on this thread - it's really informative and I've found it eye opening. Could any of you please elaborate on how you use the different time frames in real time to help read the market? I'm surprised you use time frames that are so close together - in my little reading people often refer to multiple time frames separated by a facor of four or five (e.g. hourly & daily, daily & weekly, etc.).

Thanks,

Paul


----------



## CanOz

statmech71 said:


> Pav/Tech,
> 
> firstly congratulations on this thread - it's really informative and I've found it eye opening. Could any of you please elaborate on how you use the different time frames in real time to help read the market? I'm surprised you use time frames that are so close together - in my little reading people often refer to multiple time frames separated by a facor of four or five (e.g. hourly & daily, daily & weekly, etc.).
> 
> Thanks,
> 
> Paul




Hmm me too, i use an hourly for recent trend, with a channel, then a 5 minute with a 1 Range chart to look inside the 5 min bars and pin point the entries if i need to.

Whatever is comfortable and is proven to work i guess.

CanOz


----------



## pavilion103

I look at other timeframes too.

I start with the daily one usually and then check out the hour, 30 mins, 15 mins etc.

I don't stress about them all too much but I want an overall picture of what is going on and critical levels to look for on larger timeframes.

Then I'll open up 10,5,3 and have them up and see if there is any confirmation between the three.

I'm not too strict on how I do this but I just like to see both the larger and smaller picture. I don't want to overlook anything obvious.


----------



## tech/a

9 min for Patterns/Range and Volume general strength.
3 min for Timing and pin point where the volume and range came in 
various bars. Good for minimising support and resistance bands,spotting stop hunts.
Entry and exit finesse if your watching screen.

I think you need enough bars to paint the story.
If you can see it clearly in a 60 min then that maybe all you need.
I also flip around other frames.


----------



## statmech71

Thanks guys!


----------



## pavilion103

Also a big thanks to everyone contributing to this thread. This is very much the type of thread I was looking for when I embarked on futures trading.

What better way for people to learn than follow a thread like this. Some successful and proven traders as well as someone like myself and others who are starting out and posting raw charts and live updates as they happen, rather than after the facts. 

I'm hoping to add more charts and in depth analysis as I go. I haven't gone into a whole lot of detail other than posting live charts.

If we can get a bunch of people following the FTSE in particular and posting live thoughts in here it will give is plenty to observe and to think about!!!


----------



## kid hustlr

Seconded everything Pav is saying. This thread is great and all posters in here have been very helpful. I find posting charts with little blurbs/thoughts is the best way to go, I know it takes a little longer than typing 'long here at xyz' but its well worth it.

Not sure we want too many people trading the FTSE though Pav, it might start costing us slippage!


----------



## kid hustlr

A little bit of possible overhead resistance today but nothing which scares the daylights out of me.


----------



## Trembling Hand

Rather wild day in Asia today. Would think that will carry into the Euro session. Lots of biz being done on all sorts of conflicting data...... I've a headache!


----------



## CanOz

lol @ the FTSE....short covering at the open anyone?


----------



## pavilion103

Interested to see how price reacts at this possible resistance. 

Will be waiting to see if there is resistance followed by a test. 

I want to be open minded though as to which way this will move.


----------



## kid hustlr

pavilion103 said:


> Interested to see how price reacts at this possible resistance.
> 
> Will be waiting to see if there is resistance followed by a test.
> 
> I want to be open minded though as to which way this will move.
> 
> View attachment 53265




Yep, I thought the 3 min was going to produce an almighty buy set up but its looks like its turned around for the time being.


----------



## pavilion103

Big upthrust on 5 min


----------



## kid hustlr

I was THIS close to getting short @ 6470 based on the small low volume inside bar @ 5.42. Just wasn't sure if there was enough confirming factors to take it on. Might have my second regret in 2 days!


----------



## pavilion103

kid hustlr said:


> I was THIS close to getting short @ 6470 based on the small low volume inside bar @ 5.42. Just wasn't sure if there was enough confirming factors to take it on. Might have my second regret in 2 days!




On the 3 min?


----------



## kid hustlr

pavilion103 said:


> On the 3 min?




Yep.

I think I would have been taken out at break even as I would have movedit B/E after that initial downthrust.


----------



## pavilion103

Btw your inbox is full


----------



## pavilion103

Not sure if this was a bad trade. Low volume rise in what looked like little demand. Was I too tasty. 

I don't think I had an opportunity to move to BE? or reduce my loss from the initial stop

7.3 point loss.


----------



## pavilion103

Is this one you'd consider Tech? a tight inside bar on much lower volume than the tight high volume bar before? with some bearishness in the background? Or not one you'd go near? This is 3 min chart.


----------



## tech/a

Answer here!
Its going to test the low--already has.
Remember BOTH highs and lows will be tested its what happens towards and at those tests that will determine the future of the move.
You need to wait for entries and exits nearer these important tests.
Range and volume gives you clues.
Get to B/E as soon as possible and you can be wrong as often as you like!
Your R/R will be still in tact.


----------



## pavilion103

Dammit. Didn't take it.


----------



## tech/a

pavilion103 said:


> Not sure if this was a bad trade. Low volume rise in what looked like little demand. Was I too tasty.
> 
> I don't think I had an opportunity to move to BE? or reduce my loss from the initial stop
> 
> 7.3 point loss.
> 
> View attachment 53270




The thing here is that you recognized that the move was weak.
BUT it needed exhaustion and the next test provided just that.

Range and volume was/is the indicator.
Low risk setup and quick move to B/E the rest is now playing out!


----------



## pavilion103

With the one that I lost 7 points on...

Is the key that I should have waited for it to retest the low first?

Would it be silly for me to have moved the stop one point above the high of the widespread downbar that shot back up? that would have reduced my risk to 2 points. 
Or was that too hasty?


----------



## Lone Wolf

pavilion103 said:


> Is this one you'd consider Tech? a tight inside bar on much lower volume than the tight high volume bar before? with some bearishness in the background? Or not one you'd go near? This is 3 min chart.
> 
> View attachment 53271




I tried that one. Tried to get short on sim at 6472. Unfortunately I fumbled with my trade entry and it took off without me. Maybe had another chance at 6461 after a brief low volume pullback, but I'm worried about chasing it now that I missed it.

Maybe I should drop the "don't chase it attitude" and adopt a "If I were already short, would I consider adding another here?" attitude.


----------



## skyQuake

Oh boy its looking just like this morning's HSI chart


----------



## pavilion103

6436. This feels like a kick in the guts. Bitterly disappointed. 

As Tech says if I'm getting stops to BE and then getting taken out it's no big deal. Plenty more opportunities come and I won't go broke. 

But this one is frustrating!!!!  Such a good RR and setup. 

Won't let it throw me off though or be hasty.

- - - Updated - - -

These are the types of notes that I'm keeping


----------



## tech/a

Closed and reversed.




Hmm this consolidation and testing is looking like a wave 5 continuation to the low side.
So out at B/E


----------



## kid hustlr

pavilion103 said:


> Btw your inbox is full




Should be ok now.

I'm done trading for the night boys, something has come up and to be honest some time away from a computer screen is probably a good thing. will read the thread in the morning, good luck.


----------



## pavilion103

Yep my thoughts too. Looking for a short setup form this consolidation. 

First trade would have been in 6471, out 6441 - 30 points. 

Let's see what happens in this consolidation...

- - - Updated - - -

Now looks to be moving up a bit. No test of the consolidation highs. Will wait for another setup.


----------



## tech/a

pavilion103 said:


> Yep my thoughts too. Looking for a short setup form this consolidation.
> 
> First trade would have been in 6471, out 6441 - 30 points.
> 
> Let's see what happens in this consolidation...
> 
> - - - Updated - - -
> 
> Now looks to be moving up a bit. No test of the consolidation highs. Will wait for another setup.




Off to dinner.
leave you with this.


----------



## pavilion103

Interesting inside bar


----------



## pavilion103

Some personal notes that I wrote down in my "Futures Master File"

- See BE trades as exceptional, disciplined trades - not as frustrating trades)

- Move to BE ASAP. I can be wrong an infinite number of times and will never muck up my R:R. 

- Highs and lows will both be tested. Wait for BOTH to be tested. Don't be hasty. 

- Many many opportunities will come each week. Be patient. Just don't lose much.


----------



## pavilion103

Not the best R:R with support below. But I was stalking this move. Low risk area. Topping behaviour.


----------



## pavilion103

This might benefit some


----------



## tech/a

Nice.
Hope your still short it looks really weak.
I'm not trading finished for the night.


----------



## kid hustlr

I really like the look of that last trade Pav, As you note the bearish behaviour in the background (volume resistance as the duckman would say) is a huge plus and your can set your stops nice and tight given the tight consolidation pattern.

As an aside, Usually I would set my stop one tick above the reversal bar as well (like you did) but in this case I think I'd be tempted to have it a couple of ticks higher. Maybe 6450 as it's one tick above the higher volume reversal bar from a little earlier. Pretty nit picky though.

See picture.




I swear this game is easy. Look for areas of high volume, study the patterns and the reaction of this area and set your trades accordingly.


----------



## pavilion103

That area of high volume on the low was the exit. 

I looked for another trade as it consolidated but not forthcoming. It looked weak with a lot of little up trusts and bearish behavior but it didn't eventuate. 

Appears easy. But to really "get" this it requires a lot of pieces to come together. Look at how many mistakes already I've made in this thread. Can't get them all right but I guess the loss limitation is what keeps us in the game.

Not sure about easy. But definitely simple.


----------



## kid hustlr

pavilion103 said:


> That area of high volume on the low was the exit.
> 
> I looked for another trade as it consolidated but not forthcoming. It looked weak with a lot of little up trusts and bearish behavior but it didn't eventuate.
> 
> Appears easy. But to really "get" this it requires a lot of pieces to come together. Look at how many mistakes already I've made in this thread. Can't get them all right but I guess the loss limitation is what keeps us in the game.
> 
> Not sure about easy. But definitely simple.




yeah that 'easy' bit was me talking to myself trying to convince myself I can do this. Great trade, one for the goodies!


----------



## pavilion103

kid hustlr said:


> yeah that 'easy' bit was me talking to myself trying to convince myself I can do this. Great trade, one for the goodies!




So what exactly is your background and experience with this. I know you've been on the sim. Are you recording your stats?

Have you trades equities? 
How much time have you spent on education? How long have you been looking into trading for?

Sorry if you've answered some of these previously. Short memory.


----------



## kid hustlr

pavilion103 said:


> So what exactly is your background and experience with this. I know you've been on the sim. Are you recording your stats?
> 
> Have you trades equities?
> How much time have you spent on education? How long have you been looking into trading for?
> 
> Sorry if you've answered some of these previously. Short memory.




I'll PM you so as to not clogg up the thread.

Tech, if you get a chance could you take a look at this? 10 year bonds - 15 minute chart


----------



## Trembling Hand

kid hustlr said:


> Tech, if you get a chance could you take a look at this? 10 year bonds - 15 minute chart




11:30 fireworks.


----------



## kid hustlr

Trembling Hand said:


> 11:30 fireworks.




yeah ta mate I didn't take it for exactly that reason, just interested as to whether its an ok set up.

not sure if the HSI moves over aussie data but good luck!


----------



## kid hustlr

kid hustlr said:


> I'll PM you so as to not clogg up the thread.
> 
> Tech, if you get a chance could you take a look at this? 10 year bonds - 15 minute chart
> 
> 
> 
> View attachment 53292




I took this trade long @ 96.255 stop set at the top of the highish volume wide range bar @ 96.235

Still interested in your thoughts tech.

As an aside, the intuition of buying this thing after it has already some 15.5 points in the last 24 hours is mind boggling haha


----------



## tech/a

kid hustlr said:


> I took this trade long @ 96.255 stop set at the top of the highish volume wide range bar @ 96.235
> 
> Still interested in your thoughts tech.
> 
> As an aside, the intuition of buying this thing after it has already some 15.5 points in the last 24 hours is mind boggling haha




Ok I dont have this chart.

The bar you have highlighted with really low volume.
In this context is NO DEMAND.

Youve had a huge gap and a corrective consolidation and that is a pause.
Inside the corrective consolidation is this No Demand Bar.

If it was me Id have set a short order off the low with a view of a partial gap fill.

Thats about all I can tell at this point.

So what happened?


----------



## kid hustlr

tech/a said:


> Ok I dont have this chart.
> 
> The bar you have highlighted with really low volume.
> In this context is NO DEMAND.
> 
> Youve had a huge gap and a corrective consolidation and that is a pause.
> Inside the corrective consolidation is this No Demand Bar.
> 
> If it was me Id have set a short order off the low with a view of a partial gap fill.
> 
> Thats about all I can tell at this point.
> 
> So what happened?




Thanks tech, i'll write up the follow up now. I think I'm still I confused by the low volume bar, could you go into a little more detail? (I'm a little slow perhaps). Isn't this a pretty standard break out where it booms up, pulls back slightly, is unable to fill the gap (bullish) then begins to head back up towards the highs and (hopefully) break again?

Perhaps my understanding of the low volume bar is still off. I understand we need confirmation from the next bar but we are trying to build a context as to where the pressure is. It's that context which I'm struggling with.


----------



## tech/a

kid hustlr said:


> Thanks tech, i'll write up the follow up now. I think I'm still I confused by the low volume bar, could you go into a little more detail? (I'm a little slow perhaps). Isn't this a pretty standard break out where it booms up, pulls back slightly, is unable to fill the gap (bullish) then begins to head back up towards the highs and (hopefully) break again?
> 
> Perhaps my understanding of the low volume bar is still off. I understand we need confirmation from the next bar but are trying to build a context as to where the pressure is. It's that context which I'm struggling with.




I feel your confusion. $1000s are made on it!!---Kidding.---sort of.

Pretty easy.
All bars should be read IN CONTEXT to what the Price action is trying to do.

In THIS CASE.

Huge effort to alter direction (Bullish)
Then a consolidation and some reversals (Bearish to Neutral.)

The LAST 2 BARS are certainly telling us that there is no effort to push this higher.
If there was youd see demand in volume.
A reversal bar with volume would indicate Supply.


----------



## kid hustlr

tech/a said:


> I feel your confusion. $1000s are made on it!!---Kidding.---sort of.
> 
> Pretty easy.
> All bars should be read IN CONTEXT to what the Price action is trying to do.
> 
> In THIS CASE.
> 
> Huge effort to alter direction (Bullish)
> Then a consolidation and some reversals (Bearish to Neutral.)
> 
> The LAST 2 BARS are certainly telling us that there is no effort to push this higher.
> If there was youd see demand in volume.
> A reversal bar with volume would indicate Supply.




thx mate. I think I just need to work on the context, that reversal off the highs was quite strong and I think I need to recognise that better. As you say its the last 4-5 bars which are important.


----------



## Trembling Hand

tech/a said:


> Huge effort to alter direction (Bullish)
> Then a consolidation and some reversals (Bearish to Neutral.)
> 
> The LAST 2 BARS are certainly telling us that there is no effort to push this higher.
> If there was youd see demand in volume.
> A reversal bar with volume would indicate Supply.




I just don't know about that Tech. I can just about guarantee that bar and the ones around it will 80-90 % of the time be very very low volume and very low range. The reason being is that the trading floors that provide all the liquidity (over 50% in just 1 floor) are deserted....... completely. So if you are going to be taking that as a significant bar its going to trigger just about every day.

The profile of that market is nothing like a EOD stock or even equity index futs.


----------



## kid hustlr

Appreciate the input TH. Completely agree with how this market is different to a stock or index future, they just don't trade the same. I think I touched on it a while back when I said that these markets just 'don't chart well' and I think that's what I was getting at. When this contract trades at night I read the 'low volume bars' with a grain of salt. As you said the other day though its all relative to the time of day you are trading.

Tech,

As I posted above I ended up taking that trade. I was comfortable taking this in the more 'classic breakout trade' It went well and I took a small profit. It didn't pop initially like I was hoping it would, it kind of staggered for 5-10 mins then it popped nicely, I was able to move to b/e pretty quickly with all things being equal. Exited the trade based on an area I deemed to be resistance as well as a number of things I saw in the DOM. 





it has since turned around a fraction but it wouldn't surprise me if it pushed to the upside again.


----------



## tech/a

Ok I take on board your comments T/H.

Would have been stopped on this one.

Certainly agree that charts should be read during normal trading and not night sessions.
Also agree different markets are different animals.
But still believe with experience a story can be followed.
Strength did return and youd have been filled and stopped.

The thing about that trade is that right (you have great R/R)
wrong you know quickly and minimum loss.

Next!


----------



## pavilion103

FTSE to fill this gap at all?


----------



## kid hustlr

pavilion103 said:


> FTSE to fill this gap at all?





None of the markets I look at during the day (granted mainly bonds and the SPI) filled their gaps today for what its worth (probably nothing)

As an aside do you have a massive spike on your ftse chart around 130pm today? on my chart it looks like it got swept 50 points.

I've got a sneaky suspicion you are short here


----------



## boofis

kid hustlr said:


> None of the markets I look at during the day (granted mainly bonds and the SPI) filled their gaps today for what its worth (probably nothing)




Edit: how do you define gap?


----------



## pavilion103

My trade 

We'll see how it goes.


----------



## Trembling Hand

tech/a said:


> Also agree different markets are different animals.




Yeah very few would be trading that short term out right directional. If any?? Mostly its banks and prop doing a spread trade of some sort. They put on a trade around opens/closes and work them over days - thus the very low activity areas. IMO they provide little insight.....


----------



## kid hustlr

boofis said:


> Edit: how do you define gap?




In this case I was referring to the contract opening well above the last close and never getting down to that close point. There's probably several definitions :dunno:



Trembling Hand said:


> Yeah very few would be trading that short term out right directional.* If any*?? Mostly its banks and prop doing a spread trade of some sort. They put on a trade around opens/closes and work them over days - thus the very low activity areas. IMO they provide little insight.....




Can confirm there's a decent amount of guys who do trade short term directionally. Everything you said is 100% correct though and the directional trading is always with respect to the yield curve + spreads etc etc


----------



## boofis

kid hustlr said:


> In this case I was referring to the contract opening well above the last close and never getting down to that close point. There's probably several definitions :dunno:




Did the open come within yesterdays high? I've been far more interested in gap fills between yest. high and todays open (if it opened higher).


----------



## tech/a

pavilion103 said:


> My trade
> 
> We'll see how it goes.
> 
> View attachment 53300




Testing initial high now.


----------



## barney

Shorting a professional gap open looks fraught with danger for mine

PS. I'd be looking for a push to 6550 into/after the US open  ..... Could be totally wrong of course


----------



## pavilion103

Out @ 2 point loss. 

It did look bearish as it tested that level a few times, but didn't move easily to the downside either. 

I'm out for the night now.


----------



## pavilion103

And now it's coming off. 30 points down.

Arrghh


----------



## tech/a

pavilion103 said:


> And now it's coming off. 30 points down.
> 
> Arrghh




ERR you were out for the night.
Shouldn't be an issue!


----------



## pavilion103

tech/a said:


> ERR you were out for the night.
> Shouldn't be an issue!




Yeh I need to switch off. Phone going off in a min.

Happy with my efforts tonight.


----------



## tech/a

How predictable is the FTSE?


----------



## cynic

tech/a said:


> How predictable is the FTSE?




Would you kindly stop your FTSEing swearing!

The next thing I know, you'll be enquiring about the predicatability of the FTSEing DAX!

Does that answer your FTSEing question?


----------



## tech/a

cynic said:


> Would you kindly stop your FTSEing swearing!
> 
> The next thing I know, you'll be enquiring about the predicatability of the FTSEing DAX!
> 
> Does that answer your FTSEing question?




Was a statement not a question!
For FTSEsake!


----------



## kid hustlr

Burst out of the gates on open, haven't seen a set up I feel appealing on the FTSE yet.


----------



## pavilion103

kid hustlr said:


> Burst out of the gates on open, haven't seen a set up I feel appealing on the FTSE yet.




I'm short. Stop at BE.

I'm not good yet at reading the opening 30 mins or so. I need more bars to spot setups. I'll learn though. 

Can't lose now so good position to be in.


----------



## kid hustlr

Small winner closed.

As always im interested in thoughts.

all on sim fwiw.




- - - Updated - - -



pavilion103 said:


> I'm short. Stop at BE.
> 
> I'm not good yet at reading the opening 30 mins or so. I need more bars to spot setups. I'll learn though.
> 
> Can't lose now so good position to be in.




Just saw this now. good man. I assume a trade similar to mine?


----------



## pavilion103

Yeh very similar setup


----------



## kid hustlr

Looking good!


----------



## pavilion103

Now I'm out. I'll take that.


----------



## pavilion103

I'd identified around the 6520 as my target so I won't push my luck. Happy to turn it off now and do something else. 

Maybe another setup forming here but not for me tonight


----------



## kid hustlr

Managed to botch this trade up and I lost money even though I exited before it hit my stop. Note to self when I enter a trade of this nature, it is exactly that, a trade of this nature. We are using charts to identify entry's and exits NOT other factors.

lesson learned.


----------



## kid hustlr

pavilion103 said:


> I'm not good yet at reading the opening 30 mins or so. I need more bars to spot setups. I'll learn though.





I think I might adhere to this rule. I think the open provides super opportunity but its also probably higher variance/higher swings trading. As an example that opening bar on the 3min I have used before as a reason to get short (and I know tech has spoken about this as well). I would have been creamed in this case. Obviously only one example but I think mentally I'd rather observe the open, identify possible support/resistance areas, then look for the break outs / continutation / reversals etc.


----------



## tech/a

Today's a no brainer
short since 6556
I'm marking up a couple of charts as its tanking.







*READ THE BOOK!*


----------



## kid hustlr

Wouldn't you get stopped on the VERY next bar?

or is this a classic 'keep the stops wide' off the open bar.

EDIT: I'll post chart example in a sec


----------



## tech/a

*READ THE BOOK*




Stop at B/E
Now set and forget for a while.


----------



## kid hustlr

See picture,

I think I would have been stopped out on the next bar?


----------



## tech/a

kid hustlr said:


> Wouldn't you get stopped on the VERY next bar?
> 
> or is this a classic 'keep the stops wide' off the open bar.
> 
> EDIT: I'll post chart example in a sec





?????????




Sorry Im not talking about or showing your trade.
Just mine---sorry for the confusion.

Its *STILL* crapping!


----------



## kid hustlr

No worries tech, I'm just trying to learn off you!

maybe I should structure it in this way.

Do you ever simply set the sell stop a tick below the reversal bar?


----------



## tech/a

kid hustlr said:


> No worries tech, I'm just trying to learn off you!
> 
> maybe I should structure it in this way.
> 
> Do you ever simply set the sell stop a tick below the reversal bar?




Terminology.
Sell stop do you mean a short position 1 tick below the reversal bar?
Or do you mean a buy for my short as a stop?


----------



## kid hustlr

tech/a said:


> Terminology.
> Sell stop do you mean a short position 1 tick below the reversal bar?
> Or do you mean a buy for my short as a stop?




I mean do you ever enter a short position by setting a sell stop one tick below the reversal bar. In this case it would have been 6550 on the 3min chart.


----------



## skyQuake

Tech, what are your reasons for using the 3min? That no demand bar won't show up on the 5min; not that its a bad thing but seems a bit odd.


----------



## tech/a

*Love it.*

Back from tea and stopped at B/E!
If I was watching Id have seen that failed test of the low.
NEXT!

*KID*

I used to but have found better entry techniques with less risk and better R/R.

*SKY*

I find 3 min for the FTSE gives me enough volume to be significant and enough range to also be significant.
It is just enough time to cut out a fair deal of the noise.


----------



## pavilion103

Surprised you don't maybe use a limit buy at a support level when you leave it to go have dinner?

I know it limits the profit potential, but it locks in some at a level of support likely to encounter resistance. 

What are you thoughts?



I was a little disappointed. I was going to take a similar trade to yours, but by the time I logged on I had just missed it. It looked good. Glad I can at least identify some of this stuff.


----------



## tech/a

pavilion103 said:


> Surprised you don't maybe use a limit buy at a support level when you leave it to go have dinner?
> 
> I know it limits the profit potential, but it locks in some at a level of support likely to encounter resistance.
> 
> What are you thoughts?
> 
> 
> 
> I was a little disappointed. I was going to take a similar trade to yours, but by the time I logged on I had just missed it. It looked good. Glad I can at least identify some of this stuff.




Yes I was slack.

Didn't READ THE BOOK
Or at least place a book mark!


----------



## pavilion103

I think I'm going to use the of the limit buy order near support (for short trades) at times because there are times I'd love to 'set and forget' once at break even. Not all the time of course. But when it stops me from going to dinner etc, its just silly. 

It usually seems like there is about 2 or 3 real good opportunities a night most nights that I've been watching. It obviously varies though. 

Most of my focus on our momentum portfolio for the minute though


----------



## Caveroute

Last night just about all the b/e stops on the obvious trades were ran, very quickly.

So, the question becomes, 
 - when do I move to  b/e AND 
 - where do I put my targets AND 
 - do I want to scalp or swing ?

A standard strategy is after n ticks move stops to b/e and sell half [the scalp portion] , set a target for the swing portion but dynamically monitor how events unfold and press the eject button if necessary.


----------



## boofis

I'm curious Pav; how do your views regarding the divine and supernatural work with the market?


----------



## Gringotts Bank

boofis said:


> I'm curious Pav; how do your views regarding the divine and supernatural work with the market?




Me too.


----------



## pavilion103

2 really good trades identified last night (one in real time, the other after the fact in the morning)

Both testing if resistance. Both with an obvious no supply bar. Both giving 25-30 points profit.

I won't always put it to break-even immediately if it doesn't make sense. For me, I like identifying really tight setups too of 5-8 points. Sometimes based on other resistance levels I might move it within 2 or 3 points really quickly. Most times breakeven though.

If I have a some BE and 2 point losses they are easily offset by the 20,30 or 40 point gains.  

I don't like stuffing around with it too much. I'd rather identify a potential target, watch price and volume at that level and adjust stops/exit the position based on a change of behavior.


----------



## pavilion103

boofis said:


> I'm curious Pav; how do your views regarding the divine and supernatural work with the market?




Happy to discuss in a relevant thread or private message to anyone interested but I won't derail this particular thread. This is not the place guys.


----------



## Lone Wolf

Would be short from 6541... except I tried entering via a different method to normal and IB popped up asking me if I wanted to do a "virtual FX position" or a "real FX balance".

So by the time I worked out what that means it was too late. Now look at it run. Some people are born to lose. 

UPDATE:
Seriously? Look at the size of the down bar. Good thing I'm still on sim or this would be really painful to watch.


----------



## pavilion103

Big down bar! I'm off for the rest of the week though. Good luck fellas


----------



## pavilion103

As an observation the sept contract seems to be at a critical level. Upthrust. Low volume move with tight bars in a tight range. I wonder if it will break to the downside with a wide bar this evening or in the following days. Could be a great opportunity?


----------



## cynic

tech/a said:


> *READ THE BOOK!*




Personally I'd rather watch the movie! 

Although at times it can turn out to be a real heartstarter of a horror flick!

There's nothing quite so unsettling as watching the screen, only to see Count DAX of TradersMania, unexpectedly spring back to life and tear Profitable Van Gosling's shorts off with a single ferocious bite!


----------



## kid hustlr

Tech, just in case you aren't busy enough with the other thread, if you get a chance I'd love to hear your thoughts on the set up from this morning. notes and question in the chart.

both 60 minute and 15 minute charts attached.






P.S what beer does a duck drink?


----------



## barney

kid hustlr said:


> P.S* what beer does a duck drink*?




That's a no bwainer ....... :


----------



## Trembling Hand

kid hustlr said:


> Tech, just in case you aren't busy enough with the other thread, if you get a chance I'd love to hear your thoughts on the set up from this morning. notes and question in the chart.




Why wait till its ran so far for an entry? thats really poor trading in my book. If you have an idea trade it. you have the opportunity to have a stop of only a few ticks and if it moves up to the break point you will have the stop at BE while everyone else is trying to get in or cover shorts. If you wait till it breaks you will have a huge stop and will of left half the move to someone else waiting for some comfort in the so called confirmation. Where what you get with waiting is now a crappy trade.




All just IMO.


----------



## tech/a

Trembling Hand said:


> Why wait till its ran so far for an entry? thats really poor trading in my book. If you have an idea trade it. you have the opportunity to have a stop of only a few ticks and if it moves up to the break point you will have the stop at BE while everyone else is trying to get in or cover shorts. If you wait till it breaks you will have a huge stop and will of left half the move to someone else waiting for some comfort in the so called confirmation. Where what you get with waiting is now a crappy trade.
> 
> View attachment 53417
> 
> 
> All just IMO.




Thanks saved me sometime.
Agree.

This Duck doesnt drink.
Daisy however likes a wine.


----------



## kid hustlr

ta boys

As a summary, I took the trade at the top, it went my way quickly and I was quick to move to b/e, next bar it reversed and I was stopped @ b/e.

I feel like I've missed an opportunity today.

Still learning.


----------



## tech/a

kid hustlr said:


> ta boys
> 
> As a summary, I took the trade at the top, it went my way quickly and I was quick to move to b/e, next bar it reversed and I was stopped @ b/e.
> 
> I feel like I've missed an opportunity today.
> 
> Still learning.




Be carefull of obvious tops and bottoms and even pivots.
Very very often breakout traders will be trapped as traders scramble to close out positions with obvious stops at these levels.

I like to see tests to take positions with minimum risk from covering.
Every high will get tested as will every low. Long and short term so youll get plenty of opportunities.
Tight stops --to B/E as quick as you can ---enjoy!


----------



## kid hustlr

tech/a said:


> Be carefull of obvious tops and bottoms and even pivots.
> Very very often breakout traders will be trapped as traders scramble to close out positions with obvious stops at these levels.
> 
> I like to see tests to take positions with minimum risk from covering.
> Every high will get tested as will every low. Long and short term so youll get plenty of opportunities.
> Tight stops --to B/E as quick as you can ---enjoy!





Isn't part of the benefits of a break out trade the fact that we are going against the stops? For example in this case we identify there may be some stops above that level  (96.320) so as shorts are forced to stop out we are buying into them, ie trading with momentum?

Wise words about 'looking for tests' though, it definitely provides much better R:R and I feel its the smart trade, ie one step ahead of the game instead of being the standard 'retail trade'. 

I guess this once again comes back to the small inside bar you always talk about, it gives such better R:R.


----------



## Trembling Hand

kid hustlr said:


> Isn't part of the benefits of a break out trade the fact that we are going against the stops? For example in this case we identify there may be some stops above that level  (96.320) so as shorts are forced to stop out we are buying into them, ie trading with momentum?
> 
> Wise words about 'looking for tests' though, it definitely provides much better R:R and I feel its the smart trade, ie one step ahead of the game instead of being the standard 'retail trade'.
> 
> I guess this once again comes back to the small inside bar you always talk about, it gives such better R:R.




I think you will find you have a very low win rate buying breaks and moving the stop to BE on the first move up. Futs just don't move like that. It would be 1 in 20 breaks that jump and keep on going. Then due to their mean revision bias you are also going to get very poor R:R.

This break trade how many previous times can you see it in the chart?


----------



## kid hustlr

Trembling Hand said:


> I think you will find you have a very low win rate buying breaks and moving the stop to BE on the first move up. Futs just don't move like that. It would be 1 in 20 breaks that jump and keep on going. Then due to their mean revision bias you are also going to get very poor R:R.
> 
> This break trade how many previous times can you see it in the chart?




Yeah I mean you are reading my mind on a lot of this stuff. Like I was thinking yesterday in the market(s) I trade I might get what I perceive to be a good breakout trade opportunity once a week, perhaps twice. It definitely can't be the staple of how I make money.

Also completely agree that futs are mean reverting. bond markets probably more so. Whilst I'm ok with getting stopped out of a few trades because I move to B/E I once again feel as if you read my mind and I need to let them ride slightly more.

I mean when I take a step back and look at the chart today as well as what I viewed in the DOM it was like 'ok there's a clear buyer here and he pushes us up off the open we then break slightly higher above the resistance and some stops were definitely triggered, it was quite sharp at one stage. Then just like that it reverses and its as if someone with size has said 'gotcha' on what was an obvious break out point and he comes back and drives it back the other way.

There is still upside pressure and we have since pushed back up again but at the end of the day I just need to be smarter. Either enter the trade earlier in the hope we break up, or wait for a 'test' and observe price action to see if we are going to bust up again. Both give much better R:R.

EDIT:

As an aside, I feel as a general rule _the more times an area is tested and the higher the volume, the more chance of a strong, sustained break out_


----------



## Trembling Hand

kid hustlr said:


> we then break slightly higher above the resistance and some stops were definitely triggered, it was quite sharp at one stage. Then just like that it reverses and its as if someone with size has said 'gotcha' on what was an obvious break out point and he comes back and drives it back the other way.




the 'gotcha' trade is my bread and butter.... in fact it also adds some jam to my meal.... 

Extremely low stop size, all the volume you can ask for and its over in an instant.


----------



## kid hustlr

Trembling Hand said:


> the 'gotcha' trade is my bread and butter.... in fact it also adds some jam to my meal....
> 
> Extremely low stop size, all the volume you can ask for and its over in an instant.




Always wondered who was on the other side of those trades.

Once again I feel this was a good spot for a 'gotcha' trade because whilst this level has been tested once or twice, it wasn't really on big volume. Like it got rejected once pretty quickly a few days back then they tested it on no volume overnight. Not really a HUGE breakout opportunity if that makes any sense.

I'd imagine if you felt there was some serious size floating around then you would be less inclined to go for the 'gotcha' ?


----------



## Trembling Hand

kid hustlr said:


> I'd imagine if you felt there was some serious size floating around then you would be less inclined to go for the 'gotcha' ?




Incorrect. The more the merrier. 




EDIT: Its lack of volume on both ends is where the danger of it just running away.


----------



## pavilion103

I'm out of action boys. All my money is tied up in my equity trades now.

I'm only a humble peasant.

Will keep my eye on this a little but won't trade sim or anything like that. 

As Arnie said "I'll be back"


----------



## kid hustlr

So much more scalability in futures!!


----------



## pavilion103

I think I need about 7,000 spare to take a contract. I can't remember.


----------



## Trembling Hand

pavilion103 said:


> I think I need about 7,000 spare to take a contract. I can't remember.


----------



## pavilion103

Trembling Hand said:


> <img src="https://www.aussiestockforums.com/forums/attachment.php?attachmentid=53421"/>




Thanks TH!


----------



## boofis

Trembling Hand said:


> I think you will find you have a very low win rate buying breaks and moving the stop to BE on the first move up. Futs just don't move like that. It would be 1 in 20 breaks that jump and keep on going. Then due to their mean revision bias you are also going to get very poor R:R.
> 
> This break trade how many previous times can you see it in the chart?









Have definitely found moving stop to B/E will just get one stopped out on every trade unless you have the absolute best entry possible! *See above attachment for a prime example from what TH posted in the HSI K200 thread. Over a 40 tick range of entries possible all would've been stopped out had the stop been moved to break even on the first push.
Also, for what it's worth given my noob status, I've been toying with if A then B type scenarios just to give me something basic to work with regarding the stop, so if the trade has gone my way change stop to b/e after X time (15 mins on HSI) as it will generally have made a new short term high/low after that time so much slimmer chance of needless stop out.


----------



## tech/a

boofis said:


> Have definitely found moving stop to B/E will just get one stopped out on every trade unless you have the absolute best entry possible! *See above attachment for a prime example from what TH posted in the HSI K200 thread. Over a 40 tick range of entries possible all would've been stopped out had the stop been moved to break even on the first push.
> Also, for what it's worth given my noob status, I've been toying with if A then B type scenarios just to give me something basic to work with regarding the stop, so if the trade has gone my way change stop to b/e after X time (15 mins on HSI) as it will generally have made a new short term high/low after that time so much slimmer chance of needless stop out.




So you'd have been stopped for no loss twice and had a great winning trade on the third attempt.

The problem is? 

Its not about being right it's about being profitable.----


----------



## Trembling Hand

tech/a said:


> So you'd have been stopped for no loss twice and had a great winning trade on the third attempt.
> 
> The problem is?
> 
> Its not about being right it's about being profitable.----




Thats example is not what I was talking about. I was saying that breakouts done by entering on the first ticks to new highs then moving to BE at the end of your entry bar is an utter crap way to trade a breakout. My bet is you will be stopped out of a reasonable trade (only reasonable cuz I don't think thats the way to go anyway) just about every time because they mostly roll back a bit then go again. Your move to BE takes you out of the trade just as its about to move back in your favour.

Then what?

EDIT:
Here is the perfect example playing out now on the FTSE - a run 50 points higher. Set a buy order a few ticks above last high. Then move your stop to BE once it moves your way. Every trade taken out on the next few bars!


----------



## tech/a

Trembling Hand said:


> Thats example is not what I was talking about. I was saying that breakouts done by entering on the first ticks to new highs then moving to BE at the end of your entry bar is an utter crap way to trade a breakout. My bet is you will be stopped out of a reasonable trade (only reasonable cuz I don't think thats the way to go anyway) just about every time because they mostly roll back a bit then go again. Your move to BE takes you out of the trade just as its about to move back in your favour.
> 
> Then what?
> 
> EDIT:
> Here is the perfect example playing out now a a FTSE run 50 points higher. Great up move. Set a buy order a few ticks above last high. Then move your stop to BE once it moves your way. Every trade taken out on the next few bars!
> 
> View attachment 53422




The trade above HSI is not a good trade.
The testin of the high coupled with volume indications
And range and close of bars shows that a long trade
Just isn't the right trade.
I thought he was talking about a short trade----

He's just on the wrong side of the trade.
Poor analysis.

FTSE has been doing the exact same move for the last 5 sessions.
Open up then short!


----------



## Trembling Hand

tech/a said:


> The trade above HSI is not a good trade.
> The testin of the high coupled with volume indications
> And range and close of bars shows that a long trade
> Just isn't the right trade.
> I thought he was talking about a short trade----
> 
> He's just on the wrong side of the trade.
> Poor analysis.




Ha! They were *my* trades and they were short.


----------



## Twiddle

Trembling Hand said:


> Thats example is not what I was talking about. I was saying that breakouts done by entering on the first ticks to new highs then moving to BE at the end of your entry bar is an utter crap way to trade a breakout. My bet is you will be stopped out of a reasonable trade (only reasonable cuz I don't think thats the way to go anyway) just about every time because they mostly roll back a bit then go again. Your move to BE takes you out of the trade just as its about to move back in your favour.
> 
> Then what?




This is what I have found, trading the DAX. I only trade the opening and look to capture the first real move in a direction. Moving stop to BE may prevent losses, but it more importantly prevents a lot of times when you would have captured the move, due to it coming back quickly before heading more on its way.

If you are trading with a 3:1 RR, but a win percentage of under 50%, losing even 1 trade to a BE stop, that otherwise would have gone on, will cause more havoc than having a trade be wrong and stopped out for a loss.


----------



## kid hustlr

Tech,

Mind if I pick your brain one more time before you can enjoy the weekend??

See example below. I'm only really concentrating on the last 4 bars (as marked), just wondering if I'm understanding the context as I should be. Notes on chart.


----------



## Trembling Hand

kid hustlr said:


> I'm only really concentrating on the last 4 bars (as marked),




Actually scratch that last comment. I don't know what I'm talking about.......


----------



## kid hustlr

Trembling Hand said:


> WHY? You are in the middle of a congestion zone.




Apologies mate I'm lost, do you mean congestion zone as in yesterday we were trading higher or congestion zone as in we are effectively in the middle of the range of the last 4 bars?


----------



## kid hustlr

Trembling Hand said:


> Actually scratch that last comment. I don't know what I'm talking about.......




Yep all good.


----------



## kid hustlr

Long FTSE 6590.5

Don't love it but lets see.

Stop 6577


----------



## kid hustlr

Stopped. Lol that was fast.

Mental note to myself that:

taking a trade on the first bar of the day is living and dying by the sword.

Secondly, I think I'm better off letting it play out over a longer time frame. For example, look to see if the 9 min chart prints a reversal bar or a bar I like then try to get better entry using a 3 min chart.

Going gung ho off the first 3 min chart off the day might be a little aggressive.


----------



## Trembling Hand

kid hustlr said:


> Going gung ho off the first 3 min chart off the day might be a little aggressive.




Especially buying the cash high open only a few min after the start.... couldn't imagine what your setup was there?


----------



## kid hustlr

Trembling Hand said:


> Especially buying the cash high open only a few min after the start.... couldn't imagine what your setup was there?


----------



## Trembling Hand

LOL I think I should leave this thread alone.....


----------



## kid hustlr

Trembling Hand said:


> LOL I think I should leave this thread alone.....




plz don't.

recognise it was a bad entry, that being said took a very similar trade on the Dax several weeks back and it was quite successful.

Interesting to see how we react as we approach the lows here.


----------



## Trembling Hand

kid hustlr said:


> recognise it was a bad entry, that being said took a very similar trade on the Dax several weeks back and it was quite successful.




Just luck. Have a look at the market we have............ Its nothing.

You can back test that trade with the greatest of ease. Here is the result.......





chop suey.


----------



## kid hustlr

Agree,

probably need to think about things a little more rather than just thinking 'OMG reversal bar!'

I feel like that is ordinary chop suey fwiw


----------



## kid hustlr

Might of missed a chance to get long on the 3min. It came down and tried to test the lows but couldn't get there, bounced out pretty quick, Need to recognise the opportunity to buy that test a little quicker I think.


----------



## Trembling Hand

kid hustlr said:


> bounced out pretty quick, Need to recognise the opportunity to buy that test a little quicker I think.




Not if you had a 1 min chart.




Enter at the either of the reversal bars on the retest. Pick your flavour stop.


----------



## kid hustlr

Yeah nailed it TH. clear as day on your chart.


----------



## kid hustlr

Tech, interested to get your thoughts on the chart marked below.

In your opinion is this a good enough signal to enter short?


----------



## Lone Wolf

kid hustlr said:


> Tech, interested to get your thoughts on the chart marked below.
> 
> In your opinion is this a good enough signal to enter short?
> 
> View attachment 53507




How about the low vol bar two bars earlier (retest of the high)? An earlier high vol bar which closed near its lows. Then a retest of that high on very low volume. I'd be more interested in a break of that low vol retest bar as I could set a stop above the recent high of the day. 

But I've had a few beers tonight in celebration of a mates birthday. So maybe don't mind me. :


----------



## pavilion103

Well, a few of my stocks take out today. I may be back in the futures game!!


----------



## Trembling Hand

pavilion103 said:


> Well, a few of my stocks take out today. I may be back in the futures game!!




Welcome back to the real game.


----------



## pavilion103

Trembling Hand said:


> Welcome back to the real game.




Haha thanks


----------



## pavilion103

Kid, easy to be a hindsight genius isn't it?


I think my biggest weakness is assuming which way the market is going to go (or which way I want it to go). 

We identified the high volume and possible support, yet did not wait for a retest of this low, in a low risk area. 


My motto needs to be "always wait for that retest!!!!!"


----------



## Lone Wolf

pavilion103 said:


> We identified the high volume and possible support, yet did not wait for a retest of this low, in a low risk area.




I saw the retest of the low you're referring to, but just sat there thinking about it. I shorted the marked bar. The up move seemed to be running out of steam at resistance. Got stopped out at break even. May have been too tight on the stop. But since I lose often, I like to lose small.


----------



## kid hustlr

Pav when I looked at the chart this morning I was gutted. It was SUCH an obvious trade and I was so keen to get in that I embarrassed myself and didn't wait for the test.

1. I remember tech saying perhaps only 2 weeks ago that you need to wait for the test. You put a chart up with a little duck face and everything.

2. Not only that, but the EXACT same thing happened the night before, and TH even pointed out the entry after the test of the low.

Still didn't stop me from jumping in head first and embarrassing myself.

Good example of a trade though, the last two nights were very similar as I said but last night we even got the small inside bar and everything.

Printing them off now.


----------



## pavilion103

I guess this is the learning stage where we have to try and keep these things front of mind. For the experienced traders this is all second nature.

I've written in a file where I keep notes on how I want to trade futures.

1. Look for those high vol areas.
2. WAIT FOR RETEST!!!!!!!!!


----------



## pavilion103

It cost me 8 points. In a trade that was not in a low risk area. Inexcusable.

I lost 2 points on another trade later but was ok with that one. I reduced risk quickly and have myself a chance at a move.


----------



## kid hustlr

I'll be on again tonight giving it a go.


----------



## Trembling Hand

pavilion103 said:


> I guess this is the learning stage where we have to try and keep these things front of mind. For the experienced traders this is all second nature.
> 
> I've written in a file where I keep notes on how I want to trade futures.
> 
> 1. Look for those high vol areas.
> 2. WAIT FOR RETEST!!!!!!!!!






kid hustlr said:


> Pav when I looked at the chart this morning I was gutted. It was SUCH an obvious trade and I was so keen to get in that I embarrassed myself and didn't wait for the test.
> 
> 1. I remember tech saying perhaps only 2 weeks ago that you need to wait for the test. You put a chart up with a little duck face and everything.
> 
> 2. Not only that, but the EXACT same thing happened the night before, and TH even pointed out the entry after the test of the low.
> 
> Still didn't stop me from jumping in head first and embarrassing myself.
> Printing them off now.




Kid the problem is you need to internalise the patterns. With intraday you only have minutes. The confusion of your mind when learning to trade is just overwhelmed with info and possibilities. 

Some how you have to learn how to give yourselves a mental slap in the face to concentrate on the unfolding pattern and have the patience to seize the low risk entry to the pattern. Not the need to get in at any cost to the first R in the R:R ratio.

Some run away from you but if thats the case then so what all that means is that it wasn't one of your setups........... next!


----------



## tech/a

Trembling Hand said:


> Kid the problem is you need to internalise the patterns. With intraday you only have minutes. The confusion of your mind when learning to trade is just overwhelmed with info and possibilities.
> 
> Some how you have to learn how to give yourselves a mental slap in the face to concentrate on the unfolding pattern and have the patience to seize the low risk entry to the pattern. Not the need to get in at any cost to the first R in the R:R ratio.
> 
> Some run away from you but if thats the case then so what all that means is that it wasn't one of your setups........... next!




Execution ---- right there---.

Theory is fine
but without execution---


Patience will serve you well---trades mid range are particularly difficult and trades
without a catalysts are doomed for failure! (Range and or volume) biggest error
is getting on the wrong side! I used to do it all the time!

My experience has been to anticipate momentum in your/my unfolding pattern.
Put a stop below it and then move to B/E as it retests and confirms your momentum.
Its not un common for me to have 1 to 4 setups where I'm stopped but only one
even short trade can bring me to profit very quickly.


----------



## Twiddle

tech/a said:


> Execution ---- right there---.
> 
> Theory is fine
> but without execution---
> 
> 
> Patience will serve you well---trades mid range are particularly difficult and trades
> without a catalysts are doomed for failure! (Range and or volume) biggest error
> is getting on the wrong side! I used to do it all the time!
> 
> My experience has been to anticipate momentum in your/my unfolding pattern.
> Put a stop below it and then move to B/E as it retests and confirms your momentum.
> Its not un common for me to have 1 to 4 setups where I'm stopped but only one
> even short trade can bring me to profit very quickly.




Hi Tech/a,

How often does it not give you a chance to get to to BE, and hit your stop?


----------



## tech/a

Twiddle said:


> Hi Tech/a,
> 
> How often does it not give you a chance to get to to BE, and hit your stop?




If you have a look at the the FTSE trades I've posted 5 in real-time here.
None got hit.
I haven't posted all trades here but Id say these days Initial stop hit 1:10
A stop before B/E 1:5
As stop at B/E again on average 1:3

But of course ill have a great run of catching momentum and have zero.
Over the years and particularly over this year I seem to have sync'd with
momentum ID and I get stopped less.
The reason for getting to B/E as quick as I can was for that reason.
I wasn't good at getting my ID of momentum V my Trade Bias!
I was  (it seemed) always on the wrong side!.


----------



## Twiddle

tech/a said:


> If you have a look at the the FTSE trades I've posted 5 in real-time here.
> None got hit.
> I haven't posted all trades here but Id say these days Initial stop hit 1:10
> A stop before B/E 1:5
> As stop at B/E again on average 1:3
> 
> But of course ill have a great run of catching momentum and have zero.
> Over the years and particularly over this year I seem to have sync'd with
> momentum ID and I get stopped less.
> The reason for getting to B/E as quick as I can was for that reason.
> I wasn't good at getting my ID of momentum V my Trade Bias!
> I was  (it seemed) always on the wrong side!.





Very interesting. Thanks for sharing.

The DAX can provide some very nice opportunities for momentum trading, (as I am sure you are aware) as breakouts at the opening, or massive pushes through stops and violent reversals. I am still in the process of figuring out how best to deal with these though.


----------



## tech/a

Twiddle said:


> Very interesting. Thanks for sharing.
> 
> The DAX can provide some very nice opportunities for momentum trading, (as I am sure you are aware) as breakouts at the opening, or massive pushes through stops and violent reversals. I am still in the process of figuring out how best to deal with these though.




I have found and I watch the DAX as I'm trading the FTSE on a tiled window.
That Support and resistance
Volume and range 
Speed of movement
and chart landscape (history)
 are the best leading indicators.


----------



## pavilion103

Tech you've mentioned multiple times about the potential for making money in the first 15-30 minutes of the FTSE. 

What type of setups do you look for. I feel uncomfortably often when looking at the first 15-30 minutes because there aren't many bars for the day. I don't know what to look for.


----------



## Lone Wolf

A bad trade that let me off easy. 

Since we are nearer to the top of the weekly range I preferred the short trade. A large triangle/flag was forming, a very low volume bar appeared indicating a lack of pressure.

Shorted it at 6989 on the 9:06 bar, out at break even.

Sounds like a nice explanation, but I'm not sure there was actually a decent setup in there. And if I'm not sure, why trade it? I just wanted to find something to trade.


----------



## Caveroute

Take a look at  - http://ninetrans.blogspot.com.au/p/stages-of-mastering-price-action.html

It might be of interest.


----------



## Caveroute

Re the first hour - take a look at  - http://ninetrans.blogspot.com.au/p/stages-of-mastering-price-action.html

It might be of interest.


----------



## tech/a

Caveroute said:


> Re the first hour - take a look at  - http://ninetrans.blogspot.com.au/p/stages-of-mastering-price-action.html
> 
> It might be of interest.




Thanks for the link.
Not suprising that others find similar
Price action.


----------



## kid hustlr

Lone Wolf said:


> A bad trade that let me off easy.
> 
> Since we are nearer to the top of the weekly range I preferred the short trade. A large triangle/flag was forming, a very low volume bar appeared indicating a lack of pressure.
> 
> Shorted it at 6989 on the 9:06 bar, out at break even.
> 
> Sounds like a nice explanation, but I'm not sure there was actually a decent setup in there. And if I'm not sure, why trade it? I just wanted to find something to trade.
> 
> View attachment 53536




Was watching this. I too wanted to short it and that really low volume bar was almost my trigger, yet I just didn't think there was enough confirmation to do so. I was looking for a re-test of the highs and some exhaustion volume a little higher before looking to get short.

Interestingly enough we kind of had that test just after 7 oclock. rubbish volume and no demand suggests to me it might be going lower. I almost took a short below the 7.18 bar.  this would have provided an entry with a nice tight stop. Didn't take the trade though as it's not one of the few specific set ups im looking for.


----------



## Lone Wolf

kid hustlr said:


> Was watching this. I too wanted to short it and that really low volume bar was almost my trigger, yet I just didn't think there was enough confirmation to do so. I was looking for a re-test of the highs and some exhaustion volume a little higher before looking to get short.
> 
> Interestingly enough we kind of had that test just after 7 oclock. rubbish volume and no demand suggests to me it might be going lower. I almost took a short below the 7.18 bar.  this would have provided an entry with a nice tight stop. Didn't take the trade though as it's not one of the few specific set ups im looking for.




I agree with your assessment of my ealier trade.

I haven't been too keen since. I started getting wary that it might just be meandering sideways. I want a market that moves. I won't do anything until I see some life return to it.


----------



## Lone Wolf

kid hustlr said:


> Didn't take the trade though as it's not one of the few specific set ups im looking for.




Forgot to mention... Good job sticking to your guns. Successful people have suggested that you pick some select setups and master them, note other possibilities but don't get distracted by the noise.


----------



## kid hustlr

Lone Wolf said:


> Forgot to mention... Good job sticking to your guns. Successful people have suggested that you pick some select setups and master them, note other possibilities but don't get distracted by the noise.




Cheers mate,

In time I have no doubt this will be added to the play book but for now I just want to (try) keep it simple.


----------



## tech/a

Well this is where I am tonight.* FTSE*






	

		
			
		

		
	
.

We are off---stop now at B/E at the Triangle entry 6596


----------



## tech/a

Has a way to go yet as it may still resist.
but at least I'm on and at B/E.


----------



## skyQuake

tech/a said:


> Has a way to go yet as it may still resist.
> but at least I'm on and at B/E.




First test of the highs. Check.


----------



## Lone Wolf

tech/a said:


> Well this is where I am tonight.* FTSE*




Thanks Tech, always good to see your point of view.


----------



## kid hustlr

tested that high 3 times now intra day and turned around each time. Interesting to see how it unfolds.

nice trade tech, break even no harm done!


----------



## pavilion103

Caveroute said:


> Re the first hour - take a look at  - http://ninetrans.blogspot.com.au/p/stages-of-mastering-price-action.html
> 
> It might be of interest.




Thanks mate


----------



## tech/a

Smacking into constant resistance.
Spending a lot of time up at these levels.
A matter of time.


----------



## pavilion103

tech/a said:


> Smacking into constant resistance.
> Spending a lot of time up at these levels.
> A matter of time.




What do you look for in terms of a setup for potential break of this resistance?

Do you buy as a normal breakout of a smaller intraday pattern? Or do you buy on a dip and hold in the hope of a break? What's the plan?


----------



## Twiddle

Anyone catch the breakout to the upside at the opening?

Textbook entry from my perspective, and would have taken 0 heat. Pity I wasn't home and trading.


----------



## kid hustlr

'Holds breath in hope'


----------



## boofis

kid hustlr said:


> 'Holds breath in hope'
> 
> View attachment 53552




what platform are you using Kid? Only reason I ask is that's a ****in ugly looking chart haha


----------



## kid hustlr

boofis said:


> what platform are you using Kid? Only reason I ask is that's a ****in ugly looking chart haha




lol CQG.

come on Skype some time

- - - Updated - - -



kid hustlr said:


> 'Holds breath in hope'
> 
> View attachment 53552




Stop to B/E now, think there is a good chance this low gets tested again and I get taken out at B/E (I remember tech tacking a similar trade a few weeks back and it got tested)

- - - Updated - - -

Stopped


----------



## Lone Wolf

kid hustlr said:


> 'Holds breath in hope'




Pav seems to be a big fan of waiting for the retest. You're still willing to give the first reversal a crack?

It looked better on a 1min chart, I'd have probably taken it if I didn't go out to get food. Coulda, shoulda....


----------



## kid hustlr

Lone Wolf said:


> Pav seems to be a big fan of waiting for the retest. You're still willing to give the first reversal a crack?
> 
> It looked better on a 1min chart, I'd have probably taken it if I didn't go out to get food. Coulda, shoulda....




I think each trade is different, to me that was a pretty good set up and one I'd take again, but there are other times when I've taken a trade and definitely shouldn't have


----------



## pavilion103

Break of the low volume channel on the 3 min presented a good opportunity.


----------



## kid hustlr

FTSE was shaping up as a pretty big sell but I just couldn't find an entry. Jumped off a cliff now.


----------



## Trembling Hand

kid hustlr said:


> FTSE was shaping up as a pretty big sell but I just couldn't find an entry. Jumped off a cliff now.




Maybe blow off volume on the 1 or 3 min chart. Thats probably it.


----------



## pavilion103

Good trade tonight. 

The last 2-3 weeks on 30 min chart looked bearish. 
Low risk entry on break of channel which re-tested the day's highs on low volume. 
Exited as I trailed my stop tighter. Big reversal bar on 5 min chart.


----------



## pavilion103

A good night to trade the FTSE I reckon. Price action looked quite obvious. After that initial fall, a bit of a bounce and then topping over presented a number of low risk entries. 

I'm starting to like the really obvious reversals on huge volume too. They seem to be a high percentage play.


----------



## kid hustlr

Tech/Pav

would love your views on the chart below.

this is once again a similar pattern that I have posted before where I booms up, then retraces a little.

I'm just a little confused as to whether this provides a long entry opportunity or not.

chart below with my thoughts. Do you think this chart has upside break out potential?


----------



## pavilion103

I don't know much about this market and I don't have any of the background info. 

Doesn't look like a long to me. 

Retracement is rather deep. That circled bar looks like a no demand do me (not sure Tech's views). It's pushed up on no volume and then come back down. 
Then it falls on heavy volume the following bar. Could possibly be some support here. 

Not one I'd take. I'd prefer a narrower, shallower channel and I don't like the last two bars.


----------



## pavilion103

Another today

6542 short, stop 6547

Currently 6525 with stop 6532


----------



## CanOz

pavilion103 said:


> Another today
> 
> 6542 short, stop 6547
> 
> Currently 6525 with stop 6532




The DAX reversed almost to the tick off the open from Friday.


----------



## tech/a

*Long*


----------



## pavilion103

Trade closed.


----------



## pavilion103

Nice one Tech. 

Low risk setup. Can't ask much more. 

I considered exiting on the lows, but just ended up trailing the stop tight. Maybe too much of a short bias.


----------



## tech/a

No I think you played it OK.

Ive set my B/E
Sell stop 6548 Up
to watch some of the box with the cheez.
Have a huge 2 on this one!


----------



## CanOz

Wow Tech, thats almost like a fade....


----------



## skyQuake

Only a 40pt range so far... Gotta be one more move lower right


----------



## CanOz

skyQuake said:


> Only a 40pt range so far... Gotta be one more move lower right




Do our participants know the average daily range on the FTSE?


----------



## CanOz

Should be an interesting day on the DAX, been in a bracket for the last 3 or 4 sessions....Maybe we'll stay that way until NFP


----------



## tech/a

I'm looking for Short on FTSE tonight.

But I could be biased!


----------



## pavilion103

Not sure if I'll get the chance tonight but it looks like its mushrooming over a bit.

I've got a question for you guys. Is it only daylight savings that the FTSE opening time (Aussie time) changes?

5pm Sydney time now
6pm Sydney time then?


----------



## tech/a

Haven't looked at it in detail but their start and finish times are very close to ours
IE they finish when we start.

http://www.timeanddate.com/worldclock/clockchange.html?n=136&year=2013


----------



## kid hustlr

Yeah I think that's correct pav


----------



## kid hustlr

CanOz said:


> Do our participants know the average daily range on the FTSE?




I should know this. Will research in time.



CanOz said:


> Should be an interesting day on the DAX, been in a bracket for the last 3 or 4 sessions....Maybe we'll stay that way until NFP




German U/E tonight (in an hour actually) so that might shake things up a bit. Also got the FOMC release @ 4am tomorrow morning then NFP Friday so theres plenty of things to cause a shakeout!



tech/a said:


> I'm looking for Short on FTSE tonight.
> 
> But I could be biased!




Keeping a close eye around that 6495 area if we get there on the down side. Upside I'm interested to see how we react around 6535 level.

Will this german U/E shake up the FTSE?  I'm guessing it may.


----------



## skyQuake

pavilion103 said:


> Not sure if I'll get the chance tonight but it looks like its mushrooming over a bit.
> 
> I've got a question for you guys. Is it only daylight savings that the FTSE opening time (Aussie time) changes?
> 
> 5pm Sydney time now
> 6pm Sydney time then?




Aus first on the 6th Oct - 6pm Open
then UK on the 27th Oct - 7pm open
then US on the 3rd Nov - US Econ data now comes out 12:30am and US mkt opens at 1:30am


----------



## Trembling Hand

tech/a said:


> I'm looking for Short on FTSE tonight.
> 
> But I could be biased!




that was your moment.


----------



## CanOz

Wow, a little whippy on the open


----------



## pavilion103

skyQuake said:


> Aus first on the 6th Oct - 6pm Open
> then UK on the 27th Oct - 7pm open
> then US on the 3rd Nov - US Econ data now comes out 12:30am and US mkt opens at 1:30am




Thanks guys. Prefer those later hours.Will be good.


----------



## kid hustlr

kid hustlr said:


> Upside I'm interested to see how we react around 6535 level.




Got my answer

:hammer:


----------



## CanOz

Can we really expect a big move ahead of the US GDP numbers?


----------



## kid hustlr

Long 6114.5, stop to b/e


----------



## kid hustlr

kid hustlr said:


> Long 6114.5, stop to b/e




Embarrassed myself here and was way too quick to take profits. truth be told I liked my entry but after that I had no real feel/idea what I was doing in the trade!


----------



## pavilion103

A BE stop would have left us in that last one kid


----------



## kid hustlr

pavilion103 said:


> A BE stop would have left us in that last one kid




This is brutal now!


----------



## pavilion103

We are learning. Better our mistakes reaping a just over BE trade than costing big losses.

We can both see it was stupid. The more mistakes we make the less we repeat them.

Should have been up 40 points. Finished up 3 points. As we've seen there are good opportunities every night. This is one of thousands we will see! Gotta put it into perspective. But yeh, that extra $700 would have been nice


----------



## pavilion103

We can already see that we are going to make many many thousands of dollars on the FTSE.


----------



## tech/a

Just got home
Wow you've both been 
Having fun. Havent even
Opened up yet ---- myself.


----------



## pavilion103

tech/a said:


> Just got home
> Wow you've both been
> Having fun. Havent even
> Opened up yet ---- myself.




Silly silly trailing stop. Both had 6515 at BE within a bar and moved the stop up needlessly. 

Costly but learning these things. Had so little to gain by moving my stop 3 points up and it cost me 40!!!


----------



## CanOz

pavilion103 said:


> We can already see that we are going to make many many thousands of dollars on the FTSE.




oh nooo


----------



## pavilion103

CanOz said:


> oh nooo




Not happy with that?


----------



## Caveroute

CanOz said:


> oh nooo




what could possibly go wrong ?


----------



## tech/a

pavilion103 said:


> Silly silly trailing stop. Both had 6515 at BE within a bar and moved the stop up needlessly.
> 
> Costly but learning these things. Had so little to gain by moving my stop 3 points up and it cost me 40!!!




Your trying to hop on momentum
If there is momentum and you get prematurely stopped you should be able to spot plenty of opportunities to jump on again
I haven't finished tea but I'll bet when I open a 3 min chart they will stick out like kahunas


----------



## CanOz

i just cringe a bit when i see a statement like that...sort of makes me feel like shorting it

Quiet confidence Pav...don't let you confidence cloud your judgement. Think in ticks and points...

- - - Updated - - -



tech/a said:


> Your trying to hop on momentum
> If there is momentum and you get prematurely stopped you should be able to spot plenty of opportunities to jump on again
> I haven't finished tea but I'll bet when I open a 3 min chart they will stick out like kahunas




We could pose here for a while...


----------



## pavilion103

I really don't care if you guys give me crap for my comments. 

If I was some young punk with $5,000 having looked at shares for the first time today I'd agree with you. 

Anyone who traded a sim for TWO YEARS before committing one cent to the market cannot possibly be accused of getting ahead of himself!


----------



## pavilion103

I do agree with quiet confidence though. 

But sometimes it feels a bit like a football press conference. You hear all the cliches but every now and then you just want to hear some passion and that the coach wants the team to play finals and win!


----------



## tech/a

pavilion103 said:


> I do agree with quiet confidence though.
> 
> But sometimes it feels a bit like a football press conference. You hear all the cliches but every now and then you just want to hear some passion and that the coach wants the team to play finals and win!




Think your too hard on yourself.
There are always opportunities!
Anyway here are my musings in
hindsite.


----------



## pavilion103

Would have likely re-entered there but went to the gym for an hour!

I entered originally right near the lows. With a tight stop. Would have been good. But yes plenty of opportunities. Wish I was home for the re-entry.


----------



## tech/a

Somethings going to pop I've got a few each side of this (3 ticks each side)

Long 6568
or
Short 6555


----------



## tech/a

Now at B/E
Up to 72

2 done at 80 on the test.
Off to TV
24 ticks 
Ok by me.
$404 in 20 min.

Night all


----------



## kid hustlr

lolol dont know why but kahunas made me laugh.

Pav you have every right to be confident in my opinion! Hard to fail with a duck in your corner!

Duckman I think it was 22 ticks? great trade. Really great exit pretty much caught the high on the test.

Like shelling peas.

Quick mental note to myself that an exit is just a reverse entry. sounds stupid but theres no point exiting because we are in the money or out of it, effectively in this case Tech saw that the highs were tested on weaker volume and were therefore failing, on another day he could probably find a place to go short. As i said, a reverse entry!


----------



## pavilion103

Got out as it pushed back up to the upthrust on low volume. 9 point profit. 

Bought 5668 also. Sold 5677


Now I'm short 5670 stop 5680 (original)

- - - Updated - - -

Big volume has come in here. Not sure what that means. Is it going to collapse?

Stop 6574


----------



## pavilion103

Out. 2 point loss on that last one


----------



## kid hustlr

Had another look at the recent highs overnight, then crunched it back on huge volume into the close, probably some month end stuff in there.

Watching this closely around the 6615 level if it gets up there again.


----------



## Boggo

kid hustlr said:


> Watching this closely around the 6615 level if it gets up there again.




I tend to use these patterns on Forex but just had a look at this on the 30 min chart.
Perhaps caution around the 6627 level if it does pass 6615.

Now back to my Forex


----------



## pavilion103

Short 6599 stop BE

Big bearish triangle near a solid resistance.

I hope it goes tonight!


----------



## pavilion103

Was about to go to bed but now in another one. After that huge shake-out bar price has consolidated. I'm in near the lows. Let's see if it goes anywhere. Has tested this low multiple times now on some very low volume.


----------



## havaiana

The technicals aren't going to mean too much when it hits 10.30pm though


----------



## CanOz

havaiana said:


> The technicals aren't going to mean too much when it hits 10.30pm though




yup, its all about the jobs now...



> (US) Preview: Initial Jobless Claims expected at 08:30 ET (12:30 GMT) - Source TradeTheNews.com




wow, the FTSE has had some swings tonight.....


----------



## pavilion103

And I'm out for 15 points profit. 

I was about to go to bed before. Checked the chart on my phone. Had to get in on that. Now time for bed.


----------



## pavilion103

hmmm.. big move over night. 

My original thoughts on that last trade were hurry up and put it on before bed. Let it move a little and then stop to BE and let it run over night. Then either a possible decent move or BE. That shakeout in the background looked ominous. 

That decision was worth 60 odd points. Not too worried about the potential lost profit but I'm starting to learn that trailing too tight and even taking profits too early can hurt. Kid and I missed out on 40 points earlier in the week too because of being a little hasty. 

I thought it through, just didn't take the option this time. Not fussed. This is very exciting. I'm seeing what's there. 

I won't be on tonight though. I need a break. I've spent a lot of time focusing on this the last week. Happy to take the winnings, re-charge over the weekend and come back on Monday!


----------



## pavilion103

With the momentum up on this daily bar, is this the type of opportunity where someone would try and look for a bit of a dip near open tonight, consolidation near the low, and then potentially ride another big move up?


----------



## CanOz

pavilion103 said:


> With the momentum up on this daily bar, is this the type of opportunity where someone would try and look for a bit of a dip near open tonight, consolidation near the low, and then potentially ride another big move up?





Roll the dice and take your chances, it's NFP night!corn:


----------



## kid hustlr

Nice trading Pav,

don't think you can be too harsh on yourself for not letting it ride overnight, there's a lot of big data points out over this week and whilst in this case it would have gone in your favour, who knows what could have happened in very thin trading out of hours.

Nice trade last night after I went to bed, I assume you found some form of entry on one of the reversal bars after the huge range/volume bar at 9 oclock?





Edit, interesting thoughts about looking for a possible retracement to get long. We should have just left a buy order in the system @ 6620 or so hehe


----------



## pavilion103

Yeh I got an entry in that low area.

It was not long after I told you I was off to bed lol. Couldn't help myself.

It looked very low risk and offered good potential. Unfortunately I was just too tired to stick around.


----------



## pavilion103

But those big moves are the ones that really boost profitability. With patience and diligence we will get on a few. Maybe even add along the way.


----------



## pavilion103

pavilion103 said:


> With the momentum up on this daily bar, is this the type of opportunity where someone would try and look for a bit of a dip near open tonight, consolidation near the low, and then potentially ride another big move up?




Couldn't help but check the open for a set and forget trade.

Is the above occurring?


----------



## tech/a

pavilion103 said:


> Couldn't help but check the open for a set and forget trade.
> 
> Is the above occurring?




Hang on I'll have a look just got home


----------



## CanOz

Here you go....


----------



## tech/a

I'm short 6638
Stop 6644

Expecting yesterdays low to be tested.
I'm out to tea in a while so if I'm still in play my buy exit is at 6574


----------



## pavilion103

tech/a said:


> Im short 6638
> Stop 6644




Hmmm


----------



## tech/a

pavilion103 said:


> Hmmm




Attached




But could be right!


----------



## CanOz

tech/a said:


> I'm short 6638
> Stop 6644
> 
> Expecting yesterdays low to be tested.
> I'm out to tea in a while so if I'm still in play my buy exit is at 6574




thinking a test of the POC at 6600


----------



## pavilion103

I ended up getting on the short. 

I was thinking long but got a low risk short. Was prepared to go either way with the break.


----------



## tech/a

Still leaving my initial stop where it is.
6 ticks
Will move to B/E if still in play before I go out at 6.15

Got me.

Don't want to play going out to drown my misery!


----------



## CanOz

Looks like it hit 44 to the tick...then reversed...

You gotta stop publishing your trades Tech, someone is running your stops


----------



## tech/a

CanOz said:


> Looks like it hit 44 to the tick...then reversed...
> 
> You gotta stop publishing your trades Tech, someone is running your stops




Yup
Some one bought that just to peeve me.
Its a conspiracy!

Cant read the FTSE
But shorted the DAX--8425

And Im not saying where my stop is!


----------



## CanOz

tech/a said:


> Yup
> Some one bought that just to peeve me.
> Its a conspiracy!




lol...it wasn't me....TH!!


----------



## tech/a

Back from tea a little late Closed 8416


----------



## CanOz

tech/a said:


> Back from tea a little late Closed 8416




You trading the DAX or the FTSE?


----------



## tech/a

tech/a said:


> Yup
> Some one bought that just to peeve me.
> Its a conspiracy!
> 
> Cant read the FTSE
> But shorted the DAX--8425
> 
> And Im not saying where my stop is!




That was a DAX trade.

Looking back at the FTSE
The trade was right and the exit was 1.5 ticks
too far away had I left it and not been stopped.

But that's trading.


----------



## pavilion103

A great week on the FTSE for me.

Some great trades and some near misses which is always going to happen. Last night I was close twice and ended up with a 3 point loss overall (2 attempts), earlier in the week stuffing around and missing out on that 40 point profit, not holding Thursday night and missing 60 points.

These things are coulda woulda and shoulda and happen to everyone. But with a bit more polish I can take away some of the silly errors at least, although these were not all silly errors by any means.

I think it's a lot about opportunity. If you can get in and reduce risk to BE enough times you have a strong upside of 30-50 points. Do it enough times and you'll capture enough of these big moves to really boost profitability.


Very happy with the week and I guess with a bit more luck could have had another 100 points. These near misses will always be there but then so will the weeks when everything goes right.


----------



## CanOz

pavilion103 said:


> A great week on the FTSE for me.
> 
> Some great trades and some near misses which is always going to happen. Last night I was close twice and ended up with a 3 point loss overall (2 attempts), earlier in the week stuffing around and missing out on that 40 point profit, not holding Thursday night and missing 60 points.
> 
> These things are coulda woulda and shoulda and happen to everyone. But with a bit more polish I can take away some of the silly errors at least, although these were not all silly errors by any means.
> 
> I think it's a lot about opportunity. If you can get in and reduce risk to BE enough times you have a strong upside of 30-50 points. Do it enough times and you'll capture enough of these big moves to really boost profitability.
> 
> 
> Very happy with the week and I guess with a bit more luck could have had another 100 points. These near misses will always be there but then so will the weeks when everything goes right.




Considering your limited experience, limited time frame to play, using 1 contract only...i think you are doing extremely well Pav, really. Most people that would trade futures would struggle allot more than what you have. I've seen many traders lose their account after a couple of weeks on Big Mike's, so Kudos. 

I hope you post your stats after 50-100 trades so we can see results, in points.


----------



## pavilion103

CanOz said:


> Considering your limited experience, limited time frame to play, using 1 contract only...i think you are doing extremely well Pav, really. Most people that would trade futures would struggle allot more than what you have. I've seen many traders lose their account after a couple of weeks on Big Mike's, so Kudos.
> 
> I hope you post your stats after 50-100 trades so we can see results, in points.




Thanks for the kind words CanOz. There are many things that I suck at but this just seems to suit my personality so well. Even as a kid when playing cricket video games I couldn't just play. I had to record all the stats, all the averages, promote players, relegate players. The same with watching F1, I can have the time sheets up and get excited about tenths of a second. I love statistics, details and probabilities. In school I was very maths focused. 
It has probably prepared me better than most. 

I'm passionate about trading but I don't get too excited as I'm in each trade. I just think in terms of points and statistics rather than thinking "wow I've just made $800 in the last hour. It's simply a mental game to me.

My stat keeping hasn't been as precise as every trade. I keep a total of points profit or loss for each entire night.

It would be an interesting exercise in how it impacts my psychology by posting up stats. Something I'd definitely consider doing though. I'll have a think about it.


----------



## CanOz

Yeah, that's another weak point regarding IB, reporting sucks. NinjaTrader has a pretty good reporting system. Lots of stats and ou can export it and manipulate it however you like.


----------



## skyQuake

CanOz said:


> Yeah, that's another weak point regarding IB, reporting sucks. NinjaTrader has a pretty good reporting system. Lots of stats and ou can export it and manipulate it however you like.




I absolutely detest the fact that if u hold a position through Midnight, all hell breaks loose and P/L figures in TWS get stuffed for that contract get stuffed for the nxt 24hrs.


----------



## CanOz

skyQuake said:


> I absolutely detest the fact that if u hold a position through Midnight, all hell breaks loose and P/L figures in TWS get stuffed for that contract get stuffed for the nxt 24hrs.




Yeah, WTF is with that? I can recall swing trading stocks in 2008-09 and i was happily in profit on a bunch of shorts one night, then i got up for a bathroom trip and though "i wonder what the P/L is up to" and did a WTF when i saw all my profits had disappeared even though the market had not done anything similar...it took me a good ten minutes to literally wake up and figure it out that my P/L had reset...

I think TWS was either designed by IT guys for IT guys that think they know what trading is, or designed by investors types...beats me


----------



## pavilion103

How different is the DAX to the FTSE in terms of its price action?

Will it take much adjusting.

I'm thinking it would be handy to learn that too so that I have more opportunity.


----------



## skyQuake

I reckon you should look at crude as well, it starts to move when the FTSE quiets down.


----------



## cynic

pavilion103 said:


> How different is the DAX to the FTSE in terms of its price action?
> 
> Will it take much adjusting.
> 
> I'm thinking it would be handy to learn that too so that I have more opportunity.




Well, that depends what you mean by adjustment.

My annual rate of toilet paper consumption increased fourfold after the DAX tore me a few new ones!


----------



## pavilion103

I'm certainly open to suggestions.

I'm anticipating putting Monday, Tuesday and Thursday nights aside for trading futures. Pretty much all night locked aside with the screen open and I can work on other trading related things in the meantime. 

But I'd be interested to hear thoughts on what other markets are good during these hours.

So far I've got Crude and DAX to look into. I don't need to even trade multiple ones but worth me looking into. No harm.


----------



## pavilion103

cynic said:


> Well, that depends what you mean by adjustment.
> 
> My annual rate of toilet paper consumption increased fourfold after the DAX tore me a few new ones!




Haha

Are you tearing IT a new one now?


----------



## cynic

pavilion103 said:


> Haha
> 
> Are you tearing IT a new one now?




Let's just say that there's work in progress! 

The DAX and I have a love hate relationship - we love hating each other!


----------



## kid hustlr

Nice work Pav,

I'll be back at it again this week.

Think the Dax + CL are interesting beasts but lets walk before we can run!

Didn't trade Friday night but found a nice little on in the bonds in the afternoon.


----------



## pavilion103

What are people's thoughts tonight?


----------



## skyQuake

pavilion103 said:


> What are people's thoughts tonight?




Like the fact its still above 6612. Up and at them!


----------



## pavilion103

skyQuake said:


> Like the fact its still above 6612. Up and at them!




Agree. A bit of a triangle forming now too


----------



## pavilion103

Down sloping channel to 6615 support maybe


----------



## Caveroute

long 6620
stop at b/e now
target far side of channel, ~6645


----------



## pavilion103

Caveroute said:


> long 6620
> stop at b/e now
> target far side of channel, ~6645




Good trade. Almost took 6319. 
Took a very tight one at the bottom of the channel before 6325 stop 6323. Moved 10 points but came back.


----------



## pavilion103

8.4 points down over 3 trades and I'm done for the night. 

Good luck!


----------



## CanOz

Bit choppy on the indices tonight...


----------



## Caveroute

stopped at 6628.


----------



## pavilion103

Yeh. Range too wide. No good setups


----------



## tech/a

Short 6615.5 No demand

Ill post up a chart
Stop 6622


----------



## Caveroute

long 6613, c'trend scalp

I think I may have walked into  a trap.


----------



## Caveroute

scratched


----------



## tech/a

This is crappy stop 6619


----------



## tech/a

5 contracts in 3 mins!

I'm off to watch TV if I get stopped--(Highly likely)
its better than watching this!

Buy stop 6582




*God its moved!*
Stop to B/E


----------



## CanOz

lol...thin drop that one!


----------



## tech/a

DAX went as well on Rubbish

Is there something coming out?

Ill take 6600.


----------



## CanOz

tech/a said:


> DAX went as well on Rubbish
> 
> Is there something coming out?
> 
> Ill take 6600.





Numbers already out, everything went at the same time, except for Crude, its was a little late...


----------



## tech/a

CanOz said:


> Numbers already out, everything went at the same time, except for Crude, its was a little late...




OK thanks
Only had 2 of your cars on that trade.
Still happy to call it a night.


----------



## CanOz

tech/a said:


> OK thanks
> Only had 2 of your cars on that trade.
> Still happy to call it a night.




_Nite nite_

:goodnight


----------



## pavilion103

Big upthrust on 3 min


----------



## CanOz

pavilion103 said:


> Big upthrust on 3 min




News....Everyone is excited about Italy's GDP.


----------



## tech/a

Hmm I'm short
2 again




If those three lows on the 3 min are taken I'm short another 2
Like now--6566
Trailing at 73 all.


----------



## tech/a

Moved stop to 66 and just got taken out!

Catch you all (can Oz) tomorrow.


----------



## CanOz

tech/a said:


> Moved stop to 66 and just got taken out!
> 
> Catch you all (can Oz) tomorrow.




Nite nite


----------



## pavilion103

I'm holding it.

One of my costly mistakes so far has been tightening my stops too quickly. I miss out on 20 points for the sake of saving 4. 

I was patient with this one tonight but when I saw the upthrust I waited for a good setup.

I feel like there is so much being learnt every day.


----------



## pavilion103

Out 6561


----------



## tech/a

pavilion103 said:


> Out 6561




You were quiet
Well done


----------



## kid hustlr

Nice work boys.

Set up @ 6577 was a corker.


----------



## pavilion103

kid hustlr said:


> Nice work boys.
> 
> Set up @ 6577 was a corker.




The upthrust on big volume near the top really stood out. About 15 points in the move.

I wasn't awake for the big move down when it retested the 6580 high.

I'm trying to work out what hours to watch the screen. Don't want to miss a good move but hate being glued to the screen. 

Tech, when you are short and have a trailing stop and also place a buy at a support target, do you use an OCO type order which cancels the trailing stop if your buy-target it activated? 
I'm not sure how to set this up


----------



## pavilion103

Also does it cost money to set alerts? I'm assuming it does if they are SMS alerts. 

I'm thinking its a good idea because my of my trades are near support and resistance levels. I can have my laptop open, but when I'm away from it set alerts when price is, say 10 or 20 points away from major support/resistance so I can log back on and look for potential setups.


----------



## CanOz

pavilion103 said:


> Also does it cost money to set alerts? I'm assuming it does if they are SMS alerts.
> 
> I'm thinking its a good idea because my of my trades are near support and resistance levels. I can have my laptop open, but when I'm away from it set alerts when price is, say 10 or 20 points away from major support/resistance so I can log back on and look for potential setups.




Pretty limited with a platform like TWS Pav.


----------



## captain black

pavilion103 said:


> Also does it cost money to set alerts? I'm assuming it does if they are SMS alerts.
> 
> I'm thinking its a good idea because my of my trades are near support and resistance levels. I can have my laptop open, but when I'm away from it set alerts when price is, say 10 or 20 points away from major support/resistance so I can log back on and look for potential setups.




Pav, see my reply here:

https://www.aussiestockforums.com/f...=10838&page=52&p=787721&viewfull=1#post787721


----------



## tech/a

pavilion103 said:


> The upthrust on big volume near the top really stood out. About 15 points in the move.
> 
> I wasn't awake for the big move down when it retested the 6580 high.
> 
> I'm trying to work out what hours to watch the screen. Don't want to miss a good move but hate being glued to the screen.
> 
> Tech, when you are short and have a trailing stop and also place a buy at a support target, do you use an OCO type order which cancels the trailing stop if your buy-target it activated?
> I'm not sure how to set this up




I'm pretty sure the trailing stop is activated only if you have an open position.
If my target is filled and it went back to the stop price its cancelled and as such not activated.
I've not done one cancels the other.

I have left trades over night.
I'm awake at 5.30 so can have a look at A/H trading and close positions before the market closes.
I've Also left a trade with a target and stop.


----------



## pavilion103

What are people's thoughts after today's XAO action.

I know the FTSE doesn't follow this obviously but was there something behind the move? I haven't been on all day. I've been valuing a petrol station!

What do we expect tonight?


----------



## CanOz

pavilion103 said:


> What are people's thoughts after today's XAO action.
> 
> I know the FTSE doesn't follow this obviously but was there something behind the move? I haven't been on all day. I've been valuing a petrol station!
> 
> What do we expect tonight?




The VIX has bounced, the Nikkei was down 4%, the Kospi and the HSI were down...The DAX and FTSE have gapped down...Looks a bit messy...Maybe a gap fill and resumption of the sell off until the US opens. Don't think we're quite ready for a short covering rally yet.


----------



## Caveroute

2nd entry short 6536.5
stop 6540


----------



## Caveroute

out at b/e


----------



## Caveroute

2nd entry short @6539 - also a bull trap

stop 6542

- - - Updated - - -

gone, a tad aggressive , too much overlap.


----------



## kid hustlr

Can't see anything I like just yet, watching it closely though


----------



## CanOz

> 04:30EDT/08:30GMT UK Jul Lloyds Employment Confidence - Source TradeTheNews.com




Carney is speaking today too



> 05:30EDT/09:30GMT UK BOE Gov Carney speaks at Publication of Inflation Report - Source TradeTheNews.com


----------



## tech/a

kid hustlr said:


> Can't see anything I like just yet, watching it closely though




Your not alone


----------



## Boggo

Just sat on my hands and watched this develop, 4.5 R/R 

(click to expand)


----------



## pavilion103

What do you think of one like this Tech? 

It's near previous resistance There was an upthrust followed by the circled no demand bar. Then it pushed up a little. 

Is this usually enough to try a short on. Or would you wait for another little push up (test) of the high and then short?

A bit more difficult for me to conclude when it didn't top on huge volume. 

More for future reference.


----------



## kid hustlr

That woke them up


----------



## Caveroute

short at 6540.5

stop at b/e

Take a look at the 75 Tick chart and compare with the 1 , 3 or 5 min chart. 

Can you see anything different ?

Out at 6520.5

Bugger .....


----------



## CanOz

hope y'all had your stops tight on that one


----------



## kid hustlr

Wow was not expecting that last push down.

Nice trade Cave, should have held on!!


----------



## Boggo

That was a fun little play, the equivalent of a whole night of Forex in 45 mins 

(click to expand)


----------



## Caveroute

Here is the 75 tick chart


----------



## kid hustlr

3rd or 4th its tested that low around the 6490 in the last week or so. Looks like its holding for now im contemplating a long


----------



## Caveroute

Kid, 

with hindsight that last push has the two largest bear bars in the entire move, ergo its a sell climax.

It's also a wedge bottom, so you should get two legs up from there. 

Looks like it's panning put that way.


----------



## kid hustlr

Caveroute said:


> Kid,
> 
> with hindsight that last push has the two largest bear bars in the entire move, ergo its a sell climax.
> 
> It's also a wedge bottom, so you should get two legs up from there.
> 
> Looks like it's panning put that way.




I posted some huge reply but then the page expired which is super annoying.

I took a long @ 6512.5 entry was the 8.18 bar, I felt like it tested the lows and rejected pretty quickly.

Initial stop was a little wide for my liking so if this was real cash I'm not sure I would have taken it, interesting to observe what happens now.

EDIT: initial stop was 6495.5 now stop at b/e


----------



## tech/a

Wow
Out for tea and boom!

Oh PAV 
Go short!


----------



## kid hustlr

Stopped.


----------



## Caveroute

Yes, interesting. 

It was a double bottom from way back.

A wedge bottom from tonight.

A Sell Climax which equals exhaustion -  end of trend

You have a trend line break and two higher lows

The only thing missing was a higher higher high and a real re-test of the 6490 level.

So, looking pretty good all in all, nothing is perfect. 

Looks like its coming back to test your entry !!


----------



## Caveroute

I know you guys probably aren't into this , yawn. 

But if you look at that chart I posted earlier, and start with those 3 turquoise lines in the middle and look right, do a little experimentation and you will see it's full of regular text book measured move patterns containing each of the pivot points.   

Which of course provides potential profit targets. 

I;ll shut up now.


----------



## CanOz

Caveroute said:


> I know you guys probably aren't into this , yawn.
> 
> But if you look at that chart I posted earlier, and start with those 3 turquoise lines in the middle and look right, do a little experimentation and you will see it's full of regular text book measured move patterns containing each of the pivot points.
> 
> Which of course provides potential profit targets.
> 
> I;ll shut up now.




Nice to see a tick chart Caveroute

Actually, nice to Ninja represented too...heaps of issues with the historical data server tonight...Z is not affected.


----------



## Caveroute

Caveroute said:


> I know you guys probably aren't into this , yawn.
> 
> But if you look at that chart I posted earlier, and start with those 3 turquoise lines in the middle and look right, do a little experimentation and you will see it's full of regular text book measured move patterns containing each of the pivot points.
> 
> Which of course provides potential profit targets.
> 
> I;ll shut up now.







Maybe it's just a coincidence, again.


----------



## CanOz

Hey, i'm hearing ya...price is always in a channel, i use 60m charts and channels, look for confluence. 

Al Brooks stuff...basic price action


----------



## pavilion103

Just got home. Dam that big spike at the top and dam the fact I had to head out just before I could re-enter.

This has been a week of frustration so far. Need to keep being patient and wait for the next one now tomorrow hopefully!


----------



## kid hustlr

Bit of a triangle top there before the rush down, Pav if you are trading I'm guessing you might have got a piece of that. Hope so.  Volume didn't really diminish as the pattern formed so I let it go by, wish I had sold it now!


----------



## Trembling Hand

kid hustlr said:


> Bit of a triangle top there before the rush down, Pav if you are trading I'm guessing you might have got a piece of that. Hope so.  Volume didn't really diminish as the pattern formed so I let it go by, wish I had sold it now!




Just another perspective. I rarely give a toss about volume. I personally have never seen a bar complete and considering the action and market position gone "gee that was a surprise" or gee that was a signal I missed.

I actually think it is just another lagging indicator.


----------



## CanOz

zzz, expecting some chop here...might have a snooze


----------



## kid hustlr

Trembling Hand said:


> Just another perspective. I rarely give a toss about volume. I personally have never seen a bar complete and considering the action and market position gone "gee that was a surprise" or gee that was a signal I missed.
> 
> I actually think it is just another lagging indicator.




Yeah fair point T/H.

A few of the set ups Pav and I have been looking at I Feel work better on lower volume (or more accurately decreasing volume). I remember you saying a while back that the best break out trades are the ones where it cuts through a price and there is just nothing above/below it to hold it in. It can just run on absolutely nothing.


----------



## tech/a

I actually think it can be a leading indicator.
But I also think few can read it correctly.

Most of the time it's telling the exact opposite 
to what people think is being indicated.


----------



## kid hustlr

CanOz said:


> zzz, expecting some chop here...might have a snooze




Yeah its pretty slow.

I'm long here @ 6487.5, I got hit and it immediately went against me but has recovered ok now. initial stop 6479.5

stop to b/e most likely get stopped I reckon


----------



## Caveroute

Trembling Hand said:


> Just another perspective. I rarely give a toss about volume. I personally have never seen a bar complete and considering the action and market position gone "gee that was a surprise" or gee that was a signal I missed.
> 
> I actually think it is just another lagging indicator.




Yes, I agree, especially for futures

However if your a VSA/Tradeguider enthusiast I guess your locked in, not that I know anything about it!


----------



## Trembling Hand

kid hustlr said:


> Yeah fair point T/H.
> 
> A few of the set ups Pav and I have been looking at I Feel work better on lower volume (or more accurately decreasing volume). I remember you saying a while back that the best break out trades are the ones where it cuts through a price and there is just nothing above/below it to hold it in. It can just run on absolutely nothing.




Yeah but is that "decreasing volume" actually decreasing price advancement? (lack of activity =  lack of range = stuck/stopped).

Do you need the bar/s to complete to know its a good set up. And does it increase win rate? Because it almost certainty increases your stop size.


----------



## Trembling Hand

tech/a said:


> I actually think it can be a leading indicator.
> But I also think few can read it correctly.
> 
> Most of the time it's telling the exact opposite
> to what people think is being indicated.




How can it be a leading indicator when it has to happen before it can be read? You are waiting for it to happen first. You cannot place a trade based on its information before it happens because there is no information, therefore its lagging.


----------



## CanOz

How could there be any leading indicator in the futures or FX markets? Wouldn't the quants have that figured out already and be arbing away any edge out of existence before a mere mortal could exploit it?

The only leading indicator we have is between our ears for this game.


----------



## kid hustlr

Trembling Hand said:


> Yeah but is that "decreasing volume" actually decreasing price advancement? (lack of activity =  lack of range = stuck/stopped).
> 
> Do you need the bar/s to complete to know its a good set up. And does it increase win rate? Because it almost certainty increases your stop size.




I feel like you're making the point that 'I should be able to see this in the depth well before it gets printed on a piece of paper.'

Hard to argue with that statement and I have no doubt it would decrease the stop size.

The bars do help paint the recent context though.


----------



## Trembling Hand

CanOz said:


> How could there be any leading indicator in the futures or FX markets? Wouldn't the quant have that figured out already and be arming away any edge out of existence before a mere mortal could exploit it?
> 
> The only leading indicator we have is between our ears for this game.




I know 1 that's 100% accurate. 

And another one that's _pretty _accurate. 

Any guesses what they are kiddies?


----------



## Caveroute

Slightly off topic, but you might find this of interest. 

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=9Cm0ZLiuGiY&feature=em-subs_digest


----------



## Trembling Hand

kid hustlr said:


> I feel like you're making the point that 'I should be able to see this in the depth well before it gets printed on a piece of paper.'
> 
> Hard to argue with that statement and I have no doubt it would decrease the stop size.
> 
> The bars do help paint the recent context though.




Nah I'm not trying to smash you over the head, just give another view/perspective. For me the conflict with others approaches comes from me not giving a lot of weight to TA as a short term trading method. Especially entries.


----------



## CanOz

Trembling Hand said:


> I know 1 that's 100% accurate.
> 
> And another one that's _pretty _accurate.
> 
> Any guesses what they are kiddies?




No idea, please...the suspense is killing me now


----------



## kid hustlr

Trembling Hand said:


> Nah I'm not trying to smash you over the head, just give another view/perspective. For me the conflict with others approaches comes from me not giving a lot of weight to TA as a short term trading method. Especially entries.




TH how could you ever come across as trying to smash someone over the head?:axt:

In all seriousness the way I've traded the curve this week I probably do need a good smash over the head. This time next week I'm gonna be on the street or even worse, broking.

I have no doubt I'm giving up some expectancy by 'trading the charts' and not learning to read the ladder. That being said we are still looking for the same things, those good at reading the tape might just be seeing it a little quicker than I am.

All in good time though I can learn these things, best I understand the basics first.


----------



## tech/a

Trembling Hand said:


> How can it be a leading indicator when it has to happen before it can be read? You are waiting for it to happen first. You cannot place a trade based on its information before it happens because there is no information, therefore its lagging.




I'll show you in a minute just mark up some charts


----------



## CanOz

Hmmm, bit of spike, short covering? Don't see any news?


----------



## Caveroute

short 6499, top of range

stop 6500


----------



## CanOz

Caveroute said:


> short 6499, top of range
> 
> stop 6500




yesterdays VPOC on the FTSE is 6506, this might get tested. Thinking more push for the DAX too


----------



## barney

Trembling Hand said:


> I know 1 that's 100% accurate.
> 
> And another one that's _pretty _accurate.
> 
> *Any guesses what they are kiddies?*





Lol ....  I'd like to hope you haven't wasted your time "educating" some of us wannabe's (that would be me) around here TH 

I'm hesitant to even comment cause I believe I am close to "comprehending" order flow based on what you have said over the years, but  ....... (Range/Percentage that a move has moved relative to Time/time frame/ time of day etc etc would be a good place to start looking .....)


----------



## Caveroute

CanOz said:


> yesterdays VPOC on the FTSE is 6506, this might get tested. Thinking more push for the DAX too




Maybe, I'm a KISS man myself.

That's keep it simple .... btw.


----------



## tech/a

> How can it be a leading indicator when it has to happen before it can be read? You are waiting for it to happen first. You cannot place a trade based on its information before it happens because there is no information, therefore its lagging



.

*CLICK TO EXPAND*

As promised.


----------



## pavilion103

Range tightening.

Near possible resistance.

Worth a bet either way?


----------



## tech/a

pavilion103 said:


> Range tightening.
> 
> Near possible resistance.
> 
> Worth a bet either way?




I'm looking at it this way




That extreme volume Bullish opening bar showed a lot of volume to the long side.
Either short covering or new positions.
If there is little resistance at the triangle and old resistance we will know the answer
There has been a testing of the high without a great deal of refusal---so far.
Thats why I think this is building to the up side

Have to exhaust supply at the top of these levels before moving on.
These longish Tails at the top are telling.


----------



## pavilion103

Good perspective. Glad I posted the question.

Are you going to take this one? A widths stop around 6492-5?


----------



## tech/a

pavilion103 said:


> Good perspective. Glad I posted the question.
> 
> Are you going to take this one? A widths stop around 6492-5?




Yeh I have a buy in 
If it takes out the close resistance Ill move to B/E
Initial stop 6493 ish but will make up my mind when/if filled.

Moved buy stop to 05 I want some proof!


----------



## tech/a

Stop 94


----------



## CanOz

How do you like my new divergence indicator?


----------



## tech/a

Can looks nice.

Talking to PAV while trading.
Stopped at B/E then short 502

Stop at 506
Buy stop at 484

Off to bed


----------



## Caveroute

CanOz said:


> How do you like my new divergence indicator?




Looks great Canoz.

But how do you make sense of all of that in real time or is at an EOD tool ?


----------



## CanOz

Caveroute said:


> Looks great Canoz.
> 
> But how do you make sense of all of that in real time or is at an EOD tool ?




Actually its the TF (Russel), on top of the CL contract. It does lead the market from time to time. I just put it up as a matter of interest.

The rest is straight forward Cav, volume on a 5 minute chart, volume balance (what hit the bid vs lifted the offer, then a time and sales beside the DOM.

In fact, there are no indicators on my charts, other than one MA.


----------



## Boggo

That was worth staying up for


----------



## tech/a

Caveroute said:


> Yes, I agree, especially for futures
> 
> However if your a VSA/Tradeguider enthusiast I guess your locked in, not that I know anything about it!




An interesting comment.
Could you expand on exactly what it is 
That a proponent of VSA is locked into?


----------



## Caveroute

tech/a said:


> An interesting comment.
> Could you expand on exactly what it is
> That a proponent of VSA is locked into?




VSA == Volume Spread Analysis - right ?

So, I'm guessing volume plays an integral role in the methodology.


----------



## Trembling Hand

Err? 




That is no different to this,



> So as a leading indicator when I see extreme RSI values I see where it is in the context of landscape and ask what effect is that extreme value going to have




It's lagging. You have to wait for it to show up then you have to think how you are going to interoperate it.


----------



## kid hustlr

'Pork bellies! I have a hunch something exciting is going to happen.'

EDIT: In all seriousness you're 100% right. It's just the ability/experience to notice these things as they are playing out. The style we are working on starts with the basics


----------



## Caveroute

Don't want to be picky but volume, like price, is not an indicator, therefore it cannot lag or lead.

I think were talking volume and price action here.

The issue I think is can volume 'action' add any insights into what price will do next.

If you have something that your comfortable with, and it works for you, then fine.

It's all shades of grey anyway.


----------



## tech/a

Caveroute said:


> VSA == Volume Spread Analysis - right ?
> 
> So, I'm guessing volume plays an integral role in the methodology.




Yes but how am I locked in to anything?


----------



## Caveroute

tech/a said:


> Yes but how am I locked in to anything?




Using volume as part of the analysis, you cannot disregard it - that's all. 

As I said earlier, if it works for you great - I've got no problems with it.


----------



## tech/a

Trembling Hand said:


> Err?
> 
> View attachment 53747
> 
> 
> That is no different to this,
> 
> 
> 
> It's lagging. You have to wait for it to show up then you have to think how you are going to interoperate it.
> 
> View attachment 53748




T/H

I've marked all the bars for discussion.
Sure at strong resistance or Support you would make a decision for direction.
The Volume and Range of bars indicate where I anticipate price to go.
Experience with price action will determine how I play the trade going forward.

I think its leading as it comes before price moves in the direction of the effort or in response to the exhaustion of Supply or demand. Future price action can and is attributed to specific spurts of Volume and or range and or lack of.

Happy to agree to disagree.
Or disagree to disagree.


----------



## havaiana

Trembling Hand said:


> I know 1 that's 100% accurate.
> 
> And another one that's _pretty _accurate.
> 
> Any guesses what they are kiddies?




I can't for the life of me work out what this is and I have such a sore head now. I'm going to have a shot at it in the hope you will come back and answer

time?
and maybe for the second one some sort of measurement of current volatility or range or something along those lines??


----------



## Trembling Hand

havaiana said:


> I can't for the life of me work out what this is and I have such a sore head now. I'm going to have a shot at it in the hope you will come back and answer
> 
> time?
> and maybe for the second one current volatility or something along those lines?




Sorry bit tardy on replying. But yes Barney had it. You can predict time 100%. The other that is very reliable is Range. Add the two together, as I do on some setups, and I find that in the markets I follow there are lots of trades to be taken based on an entry at one extreme after its run for a secret Freemasons pre-determined time.  I don't wait for a pause or a slowing in volume - quite the opposite, I will standing in front of any move. The "fade when it seems like the worst time to do it" trade. Then the exit will be close to a set time after the turn.... if there is one.

Frank's work is based on similar ideas.


----------



## tech/a

Trembling Hand said:


> Sorry bit tardy on replying. But yes Barney had it. You can predict time 100%. The other that is very reliable is Range. Add the two together, as I do on some setups, and I find that in the markets I follow there are lots of trades to be taken based on an entry at one extreme after its run for a secret Freemasons pre-determined time.  I don't wait for a pause or a slowing in volume - quite the opposite, I will standing in front of any move. The "fade when it seems like the worst time to do it" trade. Then the exit will be close to a set time after the turn.... if there is one.
> 
> Frank's work is based on similar ideas.




Yep makes complete sense.
Average range is X 1.5 x in the first 30 min good chance your going to fade---As a loose example.


----------



## havaiana

Trembling Hand said:


> But yes Barney had it




 If only I caught up with all the posts instead of checking ahead for your answer and trying to work it out myself, Barney would have saved me the sore head


----------



## CanOz

I used to have a system that traded on the DAX, open range breakout or ORB (also called Initial Balance). 60 minutes has been the most common time frame from memory on allot of markets....

I have studies on initial balance duration for a few markets, can post if anyone is interested.

For example here is the range considering different IB durations on the SPI.

So can anyone list the trade ideas that some from these stats?


----------



## havaiana

CanOz said:


> I used to have a system that traded on the DAX, open range breakout or ORB (also called Initial Balance). 60 minutes has been the most common time frame from memory on allot of markets....
> 
> I have studies on initial balance duration for a few markets, can post if anyone is interested.
> 
> For example here is the range considering different IB durations on the SPI.
> 
> So can anyone list the trade ideas that some from these stats?





Interesting, have you have tried to filter by range, so something like;
just the days after an inside day or
or only if the previous day was the smallest daily range in x days

Basically something that will create a sort of systematic triangle?

Editied.


----------



## CanOz

havaiana said:


> Interesting, have you have tried to filter by range, so something like;
> just the days after an inside day or
> or only if the previous day was the smallest daily range in x days
> 
> Basically something that will create a sort of systematic triangle?
> 
> Editied.




I only tried that with the DAX, i tried inside days and GAP days. GAP days led to a higher probability that the Initial Balance would be broken.

On CL for example, figures from another forum, roughly 65% of the time the high or the low will break. 35% of the time both the high and the low of the 60m Initial Balance Range will break.

I can in theory, have this information for any market i have data for. So if you would find this useful i could arrange it to have it posted by Monday, if my eLancer 's not too busy


----------



## pavilion103

At a crucial level 6523.

Interesting to see which way this goes.

Got home at an interesting time!


----------



## pavilion103

Long 6538


----------



## Caveroute

pavilion103 said:


> At a crucial level 6523.
> 
> Interesting to see which way this goes.
> 
> Got home at an interesting time!




Me too, just back.

Looks like if you had picked the trend that began ~8pm, you were away. 

So simple, the clues were all there, and yet so hard !

Easier to see on the 75 tick chart imho ....


----------



## pavilion103

I don't mind waiting for the major resistance levels. Then if it consolidates possible hit it with another contract. 

Looking to see how it behaves around 6575 if it gets there.

I'm not usually on this late. What time does the FTSE close? Or liquidity dry up?


----------



## cynic

pavilion103 said:


> I don't mind waiting for the major resistance levels. Then if it consolidates possible hit it with another contract.
> 
> Looking to see how it behaves around 6575 if it gets there.
> 
> I'm not usually on this late. What time does the FTSE close? Or liquidity dry up?




Varies depending on daylight savings time in UK and Australia. Currently, a little after 1AM AEST is when things start to wind up with my favourite "bucket shop" provider.


----------



## kid hustlr

pavilion103 said:


> Long 6538




How'd this end up Pav? brutal downthrust in the last 20 mins of trading so hopefully you took your profit and were catching z's by then!

Nice '3 rips to a low' on declining volume at the start of last night which eventually marked the low. Each retracement was pretty big as well. Need to be aware of these things (not that I was trading last night)

 6.36 inside bar might have produced a nice entry? All good in hindsight.


----------



## pavilion103

Didn't quite go as I'd hoped. That trade only produced 8 points profit. One of the deep retracements to 6545 took me out. Gotta be careful of this. Starting to get a better feel for how they take out stops. 

Was looking for about 35 points on this move. Didn't quite work out but happy with the trade.

I'm not disappointed I didn't get in earlier in the day. Didn't see anything that I liked (wasn't able to read it), so best to step aside. 

A good feeling getting the stop to BE and sitting back with 30-40 point upside potential and worst case scenario a BE.


----------



## cbc

Thanks for those stats canoz.

Am currently in the process of working out how long to 'hold em' for.


----------



## pavilion103

Interested to see if this pushed back up to 6580 for a short.


----------



## tech/a

Long




3 min FTSE

To B/E


----------



## tech/a

DAX long 8265 if Taken

---taken!

Stop 52




To B/E--65


----------



## CanOz

Nice trade Tech, bit of short covering there...


----------



## tech/a

CanOz said:


> Nice trade Tech, bit of short covering there...



Just exited Both

71 DAX 
32.5 FTSE

1 DAX 
2 FTSE

That will do me tonight.


----------



## CanOz

tech/a said:


> Just exited Both
> 
> 71 DAX
> 32.5 FTSE
> 
> 1 DAX
> 2 FTSE
> 
> That will do me tonight.




yeah, would do most for a week...


----------



## pavilion103

Hmmm why the exit?

I'm in at 6525 stop to BE.

Thought this declining triangle looks ok.


----------



## tech/a

pavilion103 said:


> Hmmm why the exit?
> 
> I'm in at 6525 stop to BE.
> 
> Thought this declining triangle looks ok.




Close resistance and cant do 50 things at once--like up dating the portfolio!!!
plus the Missus is giving me grief---on the computer when I should be giving her quality time!!

Gotta go!


----------



## CanOz

tech/a said:


> plus the Missus is giving me grief---on the computer when I should be giving her quality time!!
> 
> Gotta go!




lol, don't ya hate that!


----------



## DJG

tech/a said:


> That will do me tonight.




I suppose its a good thing you can walk away so easily, without being addicted so to speak.



tech/a said:


> plus the Missus is giving me grief




Contributing factor


----------



## tech/a

DJG said:


> I suppose its a good thing you can walk away so easily, without being addicted so to speak.
> 
> 
> 
> Contributing factor




Trust me if she can spend it I have un limited computer time!


----------



## Caveroute

i'm short at 6532.5.

2nd entry off the trend line.


----------



## pavilion103

I've reversed short. 

Wow what's that volume???


----------



## pavilion103

I'm out. Choppy night. Finishes 6 points down!


----------



## Caveroute

Caveroute said:


> i'm short at 6532.5.
> 
> 2nd entry off the trend line.




Stopped, 6529


----------



## CanOz

Short the DAX 4 from 8313...

half off at 10, stop to BE


----------



## CanOz

Stop moved to 12


----------



## pavilion103

Triangle forming on FTSE. Clearer on 10 min chart. 

What are people's thoughts? 

Does this look like a continuation pattern down? The top has been touched a few times!


----------



## CanOz

Stopped out, sell stop for 8308

- - - Updated - - -



pavilion103 said:


> Triangle forming on FTSE. Clearer on 10 min chart.
> 
> What are people's thoughts?
> 
> Does this look like a continuation pattern down? The top has been touched a few times!




makes sense, might be choppy between the top and 6530..


----------



## Caveroute

pavilion103 said:


> Triangle forming on FTSE. Clearer on 10 min chart.
> 
> What are people's thoughts?
> 
> Does this look like a continuation pattern down? The top has been touched a few times!




Nah, Its' going north, once its past 6536 and retested the b/o. 

Time will tell.


----------



## CanOz

Caveroute said:


> Nah, Its' going north, once its past 6636 and retested the b/o.
> 
> Time will tell.




agree if it test above 6540, its very thin above that


----------



## Caveroute

CanOz said:


> agree if it test above 6540, its very thin above that




Can, what's the blue arrow, divergence ?


----------



## CanOz

Caveroute said:


> Can, what's the blue arrow, divergence ?




Just pointing at that big hole on the volume histogram where there was hardly any prints, the market must have rushed right through it. These areas can cause allot of short covering at times.


----------



## pavilion103

What about a setup each way?

40 long

21 short


----------



## Caveroute

pavilion103 said:


> What about a setup each way?
> 
> 40 long
> 
> 21 short




I'd suggest a beer, it could go sideways for a while !

- - - Updated - - -



CanOz said:


> Just pointing at that big hole on the volume histogram where there was hardly any prints, the market must have rushed right through it. These areas can cause allot of short covering at times.





But its a one minute chart and one bar spans the low volume area ?


----------



## pavilion103

I don't drink but I'll go grab my wheatgrass juice!


----------



## pavilion103

There it goes...

6540 entry


----------



## Caveroute

pavilion103 said:


> There it goes...
> 
> 6540 entry




Inertia rules - didn't get past Can's thin area.


----------



## pavilion103

Caveroute said:


> Inertia rules - didn't get past Can's thin area.




BE trade.

Man, I'm spending too much time at the screen. Might allocate myself a couple of hours a night.


----------



## CanOz

The market filled that area right in, so an area that had previously rejected value there, has now been accepted as value.


----------



## tech/a

pavilion103 said:


> BE trade.
> 
> Man, I'm spending too much time at the screen. Might allocate myself a couple of hours a night.




Pav
Consistent small grabs 
Gives you a life 
Gives you confidence
Gives you control.
If I think there is a potential strong move then Ill get to B/E and just leave it
with either a target or open trade to go long term.---then go to bed and forget about it.
If you set stops ---no issues.

If your stopped no issue.
if you carry it then you've indeed done well.

Its just a matter of setting up your business so it *WORKS FOR YOU!*


----------



## Trembling Hand

tech/a said:


> If you set stops ---no issues.
> 
> If your stopped no issue.




Just a little bit on this. Stops on futures are not 100% reliable, depends on the exchange but they are not always true "at Market" orders. It is extremely unlikely event but I've seen about 5 times in my trading via IB where something has happened and they didn't execute.

Just something to have in the back of your mind for position sizing and longer term trading. If you are not running close to the edge then its just one of those thing that happens. But it can happen.


----------



## pavilion103

tech/a said:


> Pav
> Consistent small grabs
> Gives you a life
> Gives you confidence
> Gives you control.
> If I think there is a potential strong move then Ill get to B/E and just leave it
> with either a target or open trade to go long term.---then go to bed and forget about it.
> If you set stops ---no issues.
> 
> If your stopped no issue.
> if you carry it then you've indeed done well.
> 
> Its just a matter of setting up your business so it WORKS FOR YOU!




Yes. Agree completely.

It is actually taking away my free time and I'm going to bed tired and waking up tired from too much time looking at the screen.

I'm trying to do too much too quickly. I need to slow down, take a few good opportunities, build confidence and enjoy my nights!


----------



## pavilion103

What do people think of current market conditions?

Is this a particularly difficult time when things are choppy and there is no clear daily trend?

Are trending conditions, like earlier in the year, ideal for these markets? 

Or doesn't it matter too much?

I'm finding individual trades ok. But confused with discerning overall market conditions and thus more difficult to have a long or short bias.


----------



## CanOz

pavilion103 said:


> What do people think of current market conditions?
> 
> Is this a particularly difficult time when things are choppy and there is no clear daily trend?
> 
> Are trending conditions, like earlier in the year, ideal for these markets?
> 
> Or doesn't it matter too much?
> 
> I'm finding individual trades ok. But confused with discerning overall market conditions and thus more difficult to have a long or short bias.






> also, we're entering into summer doldrums. Good time to get away from the market for a while and recharge. Don't burn yourselves out trading thin summer markets that chop around all day...




I mentioned this before, maybe people just don't read what i write because I'm not a Prop trader or Tech / A...but its summer time, the heart of August. Volumes have dropped off substantially on most exchanges. This is normal and why most people take this time off completely and don't trade. I suspect Asia is a little more normal...


----------



## kid hustlr

CanOz said:


> I mentioned this before, maybe people just don't read what i write because I'm not a Prop trader or Tech / A...but its summer time, the heart of August. Volumes have dropped off substantially on most exchanges. This is normal and why most people take this time off completely and don't trade. I suspect Asia is a little more normal...




I remember you writing this fwiw.

Doesn't mean there aren't opportunities though, maybe they just show their heads in different ways.


----------



## CanOz

kid hustlr said:


> I remember you writing this fwiw.
> 
> Doesn't mean there aren't opportunities though, maybe they just show their heads in different ways.




For sure, just hate to see you guys get chopped up like i used to before i knew what a thin market was. Some aren't looking at the book either, so you wouldn't know how thin it is at times.


----------



## pavilion103

I agree. 

Think I might pull it back a little but still get involved a bit.

When does this period usually end?


----------



## CanOz

pavilion103 said:


> I agree.
> 
> Think I might pull it back a little but still get involved a bit.
> 
> When does this period usually end?




Usually after labor day weekend, which is the first Monday in September in the US.


----------



## tech/a

Trembling Hand said:


> Just a little bit on this. Stops on futures are not 100% reliable, depends on the exchange but they are not always true "at Market" orders. It is extremely unlikely event but I've seen about 5 times in my trading via IB where something has happened and they didn't execute.
> 
> Just something to have in the back of your mind for position sizing and longer term trading. If you are not running close to the edge then its just one of those thing that happens. But it can happen.




Yes you are absolutely correct it has happened to me twice.
Each time I was watching the screen. When it runs really fast 
it can jump over the top of you. Particularly if your trading a contract or two.

*PAV*

Can makes good points

Re market conditions. Chop should give you more opportunities as trades conform to S&R more often and telegraphed by volume--well I see it.
Just shorten up the time frame.
Check on your timing -- entry.
These are times when entry can mean tight stops will work or if you get the timing wrong you'll get Whipped!


----------



## Caveroute

tech/a said:


> Yes you are absolutely correct it has happened to me twice.
> Each time I was watching the screen. When it runs really fast
> it can jump over the top of you. Particularly if your trading a contract or two.
> 
> *PAV*
> 
> Can makes good points
> 
> Re market conditions. Chop should give you more opportunities as trades conform to S&R more often and telegraphed by volume--well I see it.
> Just shorten up the time frame.
> Check on your timing -- entry.
> These are times when entry can mean tight stops will work or if you get the timing wrong you'll get Whipped!




With regards to the stops - 

Are we talking stop or stop limit orders here ?

Stop orders should always execute, stop limit orders not necessarily - scary.


----------



## tech/a

Caveroute said:


> With regards to the stops -
> 
> Are we talking stop or stop limit orders here ?
> 
> Stop orders should *always* execute, stop limit orders not necessarily - scary.





Well they don't!


----------



## Trembling Hand

Caveroute said:


> With regards to the stops -
> 
> Are we talking stop or stop limit orders here ?
> 
> *Stop orders should always execute*, stop limit orders not necessarily - scary.




Nah thats not true. Lots of reason why they don't. Especially if you are using IB.


----------



## skyQuake

Trembling Hand said:


> Nah thats not true. Lots of reason why they don't. Especially if you are using IB.




Lots?


----------



## tech/a

skyQuake said:


> Lots?




For me twice in a few thousand trades.
each time it was when there was a huge spike DOWN where price fell 50-100 ticks in the FTSE in a few minutes.
Rare in itself let alone hoping over my stop.

HSI must be more often I would have thought!


----------



## Trembling Hand

skyQuake said:


> Lots?




Lots of reasons. Especially if you are trading a market that doesn't have native stop orders at the exchange, which i think is about half of them anyway. So you are relying on the brokers stimulated stops software/hardware. Works great till that 1 time in 1000 when it doesn't.

The other problem is that even some exchanges have @ market orders but also have rules about allowing orders past a certain % from last tick. When you have a sweep the order can be trigged but the broker has set it as a Limit stop and it just doesn't hit the market fast enough.

Remember when that power cable got taken out in the centre of Sydney? It also took out most of the brokers server connections. THE ASX doesn't have native stops so all the stops were on the disconnected servers. Half the market could still trade and half couldn't for a bout 3 hours I think. Was very messy when it came back online.  

Etc


----------



## skyQuake

ic,

Might as well add my own experiences:

If you're trading on TWS for Mobile, the default for stop orders do NOT fill outside RTH. Caught me pants down on crude once!


----------



## CanOz

skyQuake said:


> ic,
> 
> Might as well add my own experiences:
> 
> If you're trading on TWS for Mobile, the default for stop orders do NOT fill outside RTH. Caught me pants down on crude once!




Yeah that's right, i found that out the hard way one time too, you need to check the little box to allow orders to be executed outside RTH.


----------



## kid hustlr

CPI @ 6.30pm and German ZEW @ 7pm tonight


----------



## pavilion103

Interesting triangle here near significant resistance!


----------



## tech/a

Short 6577


----------



## CanOz

tech/a said:


> Short 6577




Short the DAX at 23.5 but regretting it...its not what i had planned


----------



## pavilion103

tech/a said:


> Short 6577




Same as me. Have you moved the stop?


----------



## Caveroute

long 6572.5

non technical , emotional stop now b/e


----------



## CanOz

Out and standing aside, this is trading in value.


----------



## tech/a

pavilion103 said:


> Same as me. Have you moved the stop?




No
Was going to short the DAX as well but haven't yet.

There could be another test of these current highs.
Stop at 81
Will look for another short if taken.

- - - Updated - - -



CanOz said:


> Out and standing aside, this is trading in value.




Yeh right thing Can patience.

Done!

Common and get me!

Im at 84


----------



## pavilion103

Same as me. Had stop 81 too.


----------



## tech/a

Done stop 91
Had 2 on the last trade 
1 now


----------



## Caveroute

Caveroute said:


> long 6572.5
> 
> non technical , emotional stop now b/e





Stoped 6579.

Missed my profit target of 6586.5 by one tick.

What's that expression - don't be a d**K for a tick ?


----------



## Caveroute

long 6580, a little dodgy


stop 6577


----------



## tech/a

Caveroute said:


> Stoped 6579.
> 
> Missed my profit target of 6586.5 by one tick.
> 
> What's that expression - don't be a d**K for a tick ?




All been there and continue to visit!


----------



## Caveroute

Scratch, 6579


----------



## tech/a

Did you see that sweep.
Then plummet!

To B/E and up to TV.
See you in an hr or so.

So tempted on the DAX!


----------



## CanOz

tech/a said:


> Did you see that sweep.
> Then plummet!
> 
> To B/E and up to TV.
> See you in an hr or so.




No, was over on the Crude workspace....but i see the trail...oh sorry, you were taking about the FTSE. I think that might have been in reaction to Irelands household debt...it came out at :49

Watching for 96.5 on the DAX


----------



## tech/a

Out 70
Tomorrow another day.


----------



## pavilion103

That down move on the FTSE reached the support area just below 6540. It seems a high percentage play is to get the stop to BE and then let it run, put a buy order around the 6540. 

I can see how a lot of people get shaken out and don't get the benefit of such a move. 

I see this happening again and again, getting out for 10 or so points profit only to see it take out stops and then go lower to the support level. 

Seems especially true in an instance like last night when it had fallen from very well establish resistance around 6590 or so.

I think I'll try a bit more of this set and forget. Get it to BE and let it make me 30-40 points or get taken out at BE. 

Then it rallied up from that support level but I was in bed by then.


----------



## CanOz

pavilion103 said:


> That down move on the FTSE reached the support area just below 6540. It seems a high percentage play is to get the stop to BE and then let it run, put a buy order around the 6540.
> 
> I can see how a lot of people get shaken out and don't get the benefit of such a move.
> 
> I see this happening again and again, getting out for 10 or so points profit only to see it take out stops and then go lower to the support level.
> 
> Seems especially true in an instance like last night when it had fallen from very well establish resistance around 6590 or so.
> 
> I think I'll try a bit more of this set and forget. Get it to BE and let it make me 30-40 points or get taken out at BE.
> 
> Then it rallied up from that support level but I was in bed by then.




It's called a "runner"


----------



## pavilion103

CanOz said:


> It's called a "runner"




Yeh....


----------



## CanOz

pavilion103 said:


> Yeh....




Capture the smaller moves with the first couple of contracts and the meat of the move with the runner. You could set the platform to flatten at a certain time, near the close. All in, scale out. You must have a pretty good cushion now, enough margin to trade a few more contracts?


----------



## pavilion103

Interesting.

I've got enough margin. Just not 100% sure of my capabilities yet to be trading too heavy.

Plenty to think about in terms of these sorts of strategies.


----------



## CanOz

pavilion103 said:


> Interesting.
> 
> I've got enough margin. Just not 100% sure of my capabilities yet to be trading too heavy.
> 
> Plenty to think about in terms of these sorts of strategies.




Tech, you trade multiples sometimes, do you scale out and leave the runner?


----------



## Trembling Hand

CanOz said:


> Tech, you trade multiples sometimes, do you scale out and leave the runner?




Better to have a few contracts and move your stop to 10 point in profit and let them all run.

You trade 3 contracts and cut 2 short and let only 1 go all the way you will end up catching runners that hardly lift your expectancy.

Man up and just hang on!


----------



## tech/a

CanOz said:


> Tech, you trade multiples sometimes, do you scale out and leave the runner?




I'm more like T/H in regard to holding on.

So no.

If I'm going to let a trade loose then once I'm at B/E or get enough to trail a stop in some profit then let it go.
I've made most on those I've let go for days.
Frankly if you can find a longer term top or bottom and you have a few on it you'll do really well.

So what I should be doing is -----
Place at the appropriate time a set and forget type longer term trade in the direction of the expected long term move.
Then trade separately the short term setups.
Even these you can trade form longer term intra day to minutes.


----------



## Caveroute

Back to grim reality. 

Managed to get some of that spike on the open - good start.

now short at 6597.5, stop at b/e


----------



## Caveroute

Caveroute said:


> Back to grim reality.
> 
> Managed to get some of that spike on the open - good start.
> 
> now short at 6597.5, stop at b/e




Out at 6584.


----------



## pavilion103

A little consolidation here


----------



## Caveroute

short 6574

- - - Updated - - -



Caveroute said:


> short 6574




out, caught in slips, 6574


----------



## pavilion103

Caveroute said:


> short 6574
> 
> - - - Updated - - -
> 
> out, caught in slips, 6574




Yeh I took that one too. Got out 71 as it struggled. Had a new short at 66 but cancelled now.
I won't be on for the rest of the night. Good luck!


----------



## Caveroute

pavilion103 said:


> Yeh I took that one too. Got out 71 as it struggled. Had a new short at 66 but cancelled now.
> I won't be on for the rest of the night. Good luck!




ok txs, none of those pesky stop jumps yet .....................


----------



## tech/a

Short 96 FTSE


----------



## tech/a

Stopped 02
That was a dumb trade!


----------



## tech/a

Short again 02






Stop at B/E
Doesn't feel right tonight.


----------



## Caveroute

tech/a said:


> Short again 02
> 
> 
> View attachment 53828
> 
> 
> Stop at B/E
> Doesn't feel right tonight.




Should feel aright now. 

I reckon you were about 30mins to early, the second entry was much better. 

I was in two minds,so did nothing.


----------



## kid hustlr

Had to stay awake til midnight.


----------



## kid hustlr

Took the long @ 6547. felt like it had a go at the lows on weak volume then we got the high volume up bar. Used the inside bar next up as my entry.

Initial stop was 6540. New stop 6543, got to go to dinner so gonna let it ride for the next hour or so!


----------



## Caveroute

long 6552.5, stop 6546.5


----------



## Caveroute

Caveroute said:


> long 6552.5, stop 6546.5




phew, to much overlap for a stop entry but looking good now.

stop at b/e - what a wimp.

and gone .......................... while I write.

Forget the first line.


----------



## tech/a

DAX
Short 06






Another set at 18 if it happens
One at 97 if that happens


----------



## CanOz

tech/a said:


> DAX
> Short 06




mmm, me too. Caught the stop run to the high side and then flipped it when it came back on me...


----------



## tech/a

CanOz said:


> mmm, me too. Caught the stop run to the high side and then flipped it when it came back on me...




Nice

A quick flip on volume from stop running is often 
a great trade.
Nice tight stops too!
16 ticks is too wide in my view (for me!)
Looking to move it real soon.


----------



## CanOz

tech/a said:


> Nice
> 
> A quick flip on volume from stop running is often
> a great trade.
> Nice tight stops too!
> 16 ticks is too wide in my view (for me!)
> Looking to move it real soon.




Stopped out at BE with the last 2, got 2 off only.


----------



## tech/a

Closed both at 00
nothing to indicate momentum either way.


----------



## CanOz

Really slow day, it is a holiday over there today so i wasn't expecting much. Will watch CL for a while, likely worse.


----------



## tech/a

FTSE dropping like a stone
Took 2 X 5 ticks out.
Not game to hold it as I missed
it by miles
Long on the high volume at 21
stop 17 x 2


Done not pulling up.
Wrong sided again.


----------



## CanOz

tech/a said:


> FTSE dropping like a stone
> Took 2 X 5 ticks out.
> Not game to hold it as I missed
> it by miles
> Long on the high volume at 21
> stop 17 x 2
> 
> 
> Done not pulling up.
> Wrong sided again.




The dax is lagging it all, CL is dropping too......spoke too soon, the DAX jusr broke as well.


----------



## tech/a

CanOz said:


> The dax is lagging it all, CL is dropping too......spoke too soon, the DAX jusr broke as well.





long FTSE 06

At B/E
Getting something to eat now!!
Can pull myself away with some sort of 
---confidence.

Wow.
Well done 
"C"


----------



## Caveroute

tech/a said:


> FTSE dropping like a stone
> Took 2 X 5 ticks out.
> Not game to hold it as I missed
> it by miles
> Long on the high volume at 21
> stop 17 x 2
> 
> 
> Done not pulling up.
> Wrong sided again.




Yes, I missed it too, almost. 

Jumped on at 6520 for the ride down.

Target 6500, measure move.


----------



## Caveroute

Caveroute said:


> Yes, I missed it too, almost.
> 
> Jumped on at 6520 for the ride down.
> 
> Target 6500, measure move.




K'ching.


----------



## tech/a

Long again 01

Dax is at old Resistance acting as support
Z is at old support but another level down at 475


----------



## Caveroute

tech/a said:


> Long again 01




Tech, could you share your logic for going long at 01 ?

Txs


----------



## Caveroute

short 6506.


----------



## pavilion103

I finally got the time to post one of my trades up (the chart).

A good one tonight. 




Looking for a long at this low OR going off to do something else lol. Not sure yet. Had to work late so I'm tired. Actually took the last trade while I was at work and the only one in the office!


----------



## Caveroute

Caveroute said:


> short 6506.




scratched at b/e


----------



## tech/a

Just closed 2 at 08
Chart in a minute while I set up the next possible play.

Here is the reasoning for the last trade.




Closed it as I placed a sell just below the resistance at 085/09
Getting hit by large volume at these levels.

I'm sitting looking now to see if it hits through it
Buy stop at 10
Would rather have the ticks banked than hoping.
Like extracting teeth!

*Nice trade PAV*
Good earn for a few minutes work eh!


----------



## Caveroute

pavilion103 said:


> I finally got the time to post one of my trades up (the chart).
> 
> A good one tonight.
> 
> View attachment 53853
> 
> 
> Looking for a long at this low OR going off to do something else lol. Not sure yet. Had to work late so I'm tired. Actually took the last trade while I was at work and the only one in the office!




Yes, good one,  that was the trade - had I been watching ...............


----------



## Caveroute

ok Tech, txs, must be a VSA thing.


----------



## kid hustlr

mannn the 6540 entry is soooo good/obvious!!!!

cant believe i was at dinner!


----------



## CanOz

The FTSE is taking it pretty hard, the DAX is still lagging a bit...


----------



## tech/a

Yes I think the DJIA will roll over some more tonight.

Hard night playing the wrong side!!!
Still came out OK for playing with knives!

Night all.


----------



## kid hustlr

Yep agreed tech.

bond markets getting clobbered as well.

Yet another missed opportunity this evening!


----------



## pavilion103

No more for me. I didn't take another trade. I also had a buy at 6510 which got scratched!

Good night and good luck fellas.


----------



## fiftyeight

Due to lack of time I am still getting through the basics of trading as suggested before I start looking for setups so struggle with some of the threads like this one and the pav and tech exercise. 

But ill have a crack anyway haha

Is the idea of the trade you posted up tonight that there was support (your bottom white line) and lower highs (your top white line). Therefore if it broke through the support it could fall quite far?

So did you have a sell set just below support and if it triggered it triggered or were you watching and put in a sell in as it fell?

Please excuse my poor terminology

Cheers


----------



## CanOz

fiftyeight said:


> So did you have a sell set just below support and if it triggered it triggered or were you watching and put in a sell in as it fell?




Good question 58, i was wondering the same thing too...


----------



## pavilion103

fiftyeight said:


> Due to lack of time I am still getting through the basics of trading as suggested before I start looking for setups so struggle with some of the threads like this one and the pav and tech exercise.
> 
> But ill have a crack anyway haha
> 
> *Is the idea of the trade you posted up tonight that there was support (your bottom white line) and lower highs (your top white line). Therefore if it broke through the support it could fall quite far?
> 
> So did you have a sell set just below support and if it triggered it triggered or were you watching and put in a sell in as it fell?*
> 
> Please excuse my poor terminology
> 
> Cheers




The beauty of this one is I started to see it as week because I was planning a long It began to look weaker and weaker as it moved down. As you said, lower highs and then after the pattern was a well formed triangle I was confident enough to put a sell-stop order at 6538 and let it be triggered. Was able to move the stop quickly too. 

Always great when they move in your favour right away!


----------



## fiftyeight

Cheers for that. Maybe they are starting to make sense.


----------



## Caveroute

fiftyeight said:


> Due to lack of time I am still getting through the basics of trading as suggested before I start looking for setups so struggle with some of the threads like this one and the pav and tech exercise.
> 
> But ill have a crack anyway haha
> 
> Is the idea of the trade you posted up tonight that there was support (your bottom white line) and lower highs (your top white line). Therefore if it broke through the support it could fall quite far?
> 
> So did you have a sell set just below support and if it triggered it triggered or were you watching and put in a sell in as it fell?
> 
> Please excuse my poor terminology
> 
> Cheers




You will get different logic from different people, its comforting to know that most of the time the conclusions are similar.

I use a tick chart and "price action" logic, for me volume is immaterial - this marks me as the black sheep on this thread.

Nobody knew how far it would go, it was just "probably" going to down.
For me - in no particular order the logic would be:

The trend is down.
Selling pressure has been building
We have consecutive lower lows and lower highs
A wedge bottom has failed
The breakout [from the flag] bar  is strong, and the pullback is weak.
There is a low 2 at the 20 bar ema around 18:30
There are several bull traps leading upto the b/o - these are reason to enter by themselves.
There are bull traps after the breakout, even if you missed it.

So,  I'm no expert but in the words of Al Brooks, the case for the bears is strong and the case for the bulls, well I can't see one - but this can change quickly.

The 6500 area was also a measured move and at obvious resistance, makes it a clear target.

This probably makes no sense, but that's what I was thinking - some of it is with the benefit of hindsight of course.


----------



## Boggo

Two nice sell setups and approaching final target area (maybe) ?

(click to expand)


----------



## pavilion103

A couple more breaks of triangles to the downside. Big profit potential. Still happy with my 30 points. I am 100% happy with my exit too. Probably 2 more re-entries I may have done once my long setups failed.

I was looking at the FTSE this morning thinking it looked weak. Near resistance, nudging up on low volume and what looked like a no demand yesterday. I wonder if this momentum will push it down now.

I can certainly see what a great chance it is to cash in on days like this. When the setups are more obvious and the move in your favour immediately.

As a minimum a couple of good/obvious 30 point setups on the table there.


----------



## pavilion103

Boggo said:


> Two nice sell setups and approaching final target area (maybe) ?
> 
> (click to expand)




Interesting. Thanks.


----------



## fiftyeight

Caveroute said:


> The trend is down.
> *Selling pressure has been building*
> We have consecutive lower lows and lower highs
> *A wedge bottom has failed*
> The breakout [from the flag] bar  is strong, and the pullback is weak.
> *There is a low 2 at the 20 bar ema around 18:30*
> There are several bull traps leading upto the b/o - these are reason to enter by themselves.
> There are bull traps after the breakout, even if you missed it.
> .




Thanks for that. I think most of it made sense but yeah the past is always 20/20

Few questions if can

So you identify pressure just through falling price ie pavs white lines?
Where is the wedge bottom?
"There is a low 2 at the 20 bar ema around 18:30" Is your clock set different? and you have the 20 bar ema on your charts? sorry the only charts I see at the moment are the ones posted and googlefinance

Cheers


----------



## Caveroute

fiftyeight said:


> Thanks for that. I think most of it made sense but yeah the past is always 20/20
> 
> Few questions if can
> 
> So you identify pressure just through falling price ie pavs white lines?
> Where is the wedge bottom?
> "There is a low 2 at the 20 bar ema around 18:30" Is your clock set different? and you have the 20 bar ema on your charts? sorry the only charts I see at the moment are the ones posted and googlefinance
> 
> Cheers




Well it depends, maybe you would like to scan this site for advice aimed at people who are starting out.


----------



## pavilion103

What do we expect tonight guys. As posted earlier the FTSE chart is looking a bit weak to me.

Are people anticipating follow through from yesterday or a testing of some of this area?

I don't get much chance to go on on Fridays but I will make an effort to check this in the first hour or two just incase there is strong momentum down.

At some point I want to trade 2 contracts. 1 to hold for days (if the trend is there) and the other to trade as I have been doing. Maybe last night would have been good for it. I'll look for another opportunity.


----------



## tech/a

A two day move down (With wider than normal range) will generally see a slowing.
Even a pause/retracement.
I think in the longer run this could be a prolonged move down.
We all missed the position trade of the month.
Thinking short term and neglecting the big picture. For me often costly!
Made many "P" plater trading errors last night.

Watch for a strong drop then a grinding back of price as in a pause.
But of course play the action as it pans out.
Trade with the trend and look to see what response price action is getting from effort or lack of.

- - - Updated - - -



Caveroute said:


> Well it depends, maybe you would like to scan this site for advice aimed at people who are starting out.




Helpful?
He's only asking a civil question.


----------



## kid hustlr

We really did miss the position trade of the month. Big reversal on the daily near resistance and a nice little upward sloping channel to boot!

Wouldn't surprise me at all if kicked lower initially. Big thrust down yesterday. a bit of a 'clean out' today and then some 'value buying' perhaps?

Don't think we'll see 6600 for a while though!


----------



## CanOz

kid hustlr said:


> and then some 'value buying' perhaps?




Don't forget short covering...


----------



## kid hustlr

CanOz said:


> Don't forget short covering...




Yep, the smart guys who took the trade of the month!


----------



## pavilion103

Well I'm not sure if it was posted in here or not (I'm confident it was) but I did identify the low volume up channel and reversal near resistance. 

That is why I was so keen to trade last night that I brought my laptop to the office. I've never done that before.

When price fell severely on the open I began to panic a little. I lost 10 points in fear before making 30 from the break of that large triangle. Finishing 20 points up for the night.

Being 10 points down, I was too afraid to go 2 contracts on the break of the triangle which looks costly now. 
As we do so many times, it was all played out in my head but not executed properly.

With a potentially great opportunity missed I'm looking for the next one to take a position trade. We'll see.


----------



## Caveroute

tech/a said:


> A two day move down (With wider than normal range) will generally see a slowing.
> Even a pause/retracement.
> I think in the longer run this could be a prolonged move down.
> We all missed the position trade of the month.
> Thinking short term and neglecting the big picture. For me often costly!
> Made many "P" plater trading errors last night.
> 
> Watch for a strong drop then a grinding back of price as in a pause.
> But of course play the action as it pans out.
> Trade with the trend and look to see what response price action is getting from effort or lack of.
> 
> - - - Updated - - -
> 
> 
> 
> Helpful?
> He's only asking a civil question.




Apologies if this didn't come across well, totally unintentional.


----------



## pavilion103

Now if this thing is going to continue to fall, it could consolidate at this small resistance and then fall. We'll see.


----------



## Caveroute

pavilion103 said:


> Now if this thing is going to continue to fall, it could consolidate at this small resistance and then fall. We'll see.




short 6468


----------



## pavilion103

Short 67.5


----------



## Caveroute

Caveroute said:


> short 6468




out at b/e


----------



## pavilion103

Yep. Out 1 point loss for me. Wait for a test here.


----------



## CanOz

You guys seem to have a short bias today?


----------



## pavilion103

I do. We'll see if its justified. I'm not 100% sure but it looks like short to me.

Channel up/test on decreasing volume here. A possible entry coming up!


----------



## pavilion103

Setup short 68 stop 75


----------



## CanOz

Man that FTSE must be thin....


----------



## tech/a

CanOz said:


> Man that FTSE must be thin....




Sorry I'll start trading in a minute


----------



## pavilion103

tech/a said:


> Sorry I'll start trading in a minute




Haha


----------



## pavilion103

Out.


Looking to see how it breaks from this large triangle


----------



## pavilion103

BE again and I'm done for tonight


----------



## tech/a

Long and going to let it go now its at B/E
just a couple.


----------



## kid hustlr

Tech I've noticed you've posted some 1 min charts lately.

Are you working off them a little more now?

Do you find it provides you with a stronger entry?


----------



## tech/a

kid hustlr said:


> Tech I've noticed you've posted some 1 min charts lately.
> 
> Are you working off them a little more now?
> 
> Do you find it provides you with a stronger entry?




In the above case I got to the screen after the spike low which was apparent 
In all timeframes.
My bias was and still is towards a correction in a longer term push lower.
So these movers aren't normally 100s of ticks so I need a timeframe with more bars for technical entries.

It gave me lower risk on the test of the low entry which I expected.

I was originally thinking much shorter timeframe but let it run once at b/e.

I'll use 3 min generally
But one minute if shorter term expected.

The key really is finding strong setup where momentum is likely to be sustained
Over x timeframe.
As I keep saying once at b/e the risk almost disappears.


----------



## kid hustlr

Yep ta mate.

Reason I ask is i too was keeping an eye on the long entry after those preceeding bars. The only real long set up I could see on the 3 min was say long around 6459 or so. It would have meant a 13 tick stop or so which was just a little out of my comfort zone. Especially when I had a similar bias to you in that the general longer term move from here was down.

The 1 min provided that nice entry with a decently tight stop and would have been perfect for last night. 

It's also another example of getting long 'before the potential break' further improving expectancy.

Will keep a closer eye on the 1 min from here.


----------



## fiftyeight

When referring to your longer term bias, what are people using? T/A with a longer time frame or F/A or other?


----------



## tech/a

fiftyeight said:


> When referring to your longer term bias, what are people using? T/A with a longer time frame or F/A or other?




For me longer term 
Macro F/A 
Trading T/A


----------



## fiftyeight

This may sound a bit smart assy but its not intended to be.

I know you "keep saying" about moving to B/E and if its not going your way get out. Does your bias help determine your entries or what set-ups you are looking for?

I have read repeatedly we cannot predict what the market will do, so how does your longer term bias affect your trading?

Or am I confusing bias with predicting.


----------



## tech/a

fiftyeight said:


> This may sound a bit smart assy but its not intended to be.
> 
> I know you "keep saying" about moving to B/E and if its not going your way get out. Does your bias help determine your entries or what set-ups you are looking for?
> 
> I have read repeatedly we cannot predict what the market will do, so how does your longer term bias affect your trading?
> 
> Or am I confusing bias with predicting.




Each trade is based upon the analysis for that trade.
The Risk Reward is also a leading consideration.
If I'm late then I wont trade that setup.

Why trade against my Bias?

There are setups which indicate momentum will go against my bias and others
that indicate that it will support that bias.

We can anticipate.

There is a fine line between anticipation and prediction.
If you have a look at Boggos Elliott Wave charts they anticipate the extent of moves
likely targets.
And provided market conditions don't change dramatically from the conditions at the time the 
analysis was performed then the anticipated levels are reached with surprising accuracy!


----------



## CanOz

One thing that has caught me from time to time was underestimating the short interest in an index or commodity and the rally that it can produce when they rush to cover...so i may have a short bias and be fighting that covering...

Nasty stuff when you're on the wrong side of it, absolutely wonderful of course when you're not...


----------



## kid hustlr

Alright boys place your bets.

Continuing with my short bias going into today but as always will just trade it as it comes.


----------



## Caveroute

long 79.5

out 76.

Not very clever ....................


----------



## tech/a

Sold long 
Now short


----------



## Caveroute

long 6467.5

Uhm, nice trading, not.

ok, that's me for the night - good luck.


----------



## kid hustlr

Caveroute said:


> long 6467.5
> 
> Uhm, nice trading, not.
> 
> ok, that's me for the night - good luck.




Plenty more opportunites!

Pav and I knicked a few ticks when it tested the low and jumped up to around 6475 or so. currently sitting back doing nothing. 

Setting up for a big drop later this evening?


----------



## Caveroute

kid hustlr said:


> Plenty more opportunites!
> 
> Pav and I knicked a few ticks when it tested the low and jumped up to around 6475 or so. currently sitting back doing nothing.
> 
> Setting up for a big drop later this evening?




House rules, 2 consecutive losses in one session and your on yer bike.


----------



## pavilion103

Break of this base short is on the cards?


----------



## Lone Wolf

pavilion103 said:


> Break of this base short is on the cards?




Here's hoping. Short 68, stop 72.

Saw a long earlier - low vol test of the major low, but I was too chicken to take it. Even in sim trading I'm still scared of losing.


----------



## tech/a

Caveroute said:


> House rules, 2 consecutive losses in one session and your on yer bike.




Why!

If your getting out for a few ticks or better still B/E
It's only a matter of getting on the right side of the trade.


----------



## Caveroute

tech/a said:


> Why!
> 
> If your getting out for a few ticks or better still B/E
> It's only a matter of getting on the right side of the trade.




Because it means I'm not reading it well, tonight- simple as that. 

There is always tomorrow, the day after or the day after that.

 There is no rush.


----------



## pavilion103

Lone Wolf said:


> Here's hoping. Short 68, stop 72.
> 
> Saw a long earlier - low vol test of the major low, but I was too chicken to take it. Even in sim trading I'm still scared of losing.




Similar one too!


----------



## Lone Wolf

pavilion103 said:


> Similar one too!




Sorry Pav, I jinxed it for you.

Any other day I'd have gone short again at 79 - Vol dried up after a big push up. But once bitten twice shy.


----------



## tech/a

Caveroute said:


> Because it means I'm not reading it well, tonight- simple as that.
> 
> There is always tomorrow, the day after or the day after that.
> 
> There is no rush.




Yes I agree with that.
If you don't feel your in sinc 
Best to walk away.
Sometimes a few hrs does the trick!

Just closed short.


----------



## tech/a

Boom there's your long!

Unfortunately I didn't reverse my trade!

Long 6479
Out 6476


----------



## pavilion103

Not sure if this is going south or not but if it does, the daily chart shows there nothing stopping this move having a very good run down.


----------



## Mistagear

Any ES traders here ?
I trade the ES a couple of nights a week, sometimes from around 8.30 Aus time for a few hours.  Am looking for trading buddies to swap ideas/stop from being bored etc.
I trade supply/demand effort/effect. Would prefer ppl trading different methodology, who has traded futures for a while. I've been ES futures since 2006 and seen quite a few come and go in that time, so not looking to have my hand held, more a person/people with a methodology they are comfortable in trading most market conditions.
PM. me if interested

Cheers, M


----------



## pavilion103

Interesting night. It just churned down slowly. Couldn't find a great shorting opportunity. 

The open will be interesting tonight. It has pushed below the lows now by about 12 points. If it heads lower it could keep going and set up a great opportunity tonight!


----------



## pavilion103

Not sure if this was stupid or not but last night I considered putting in an order when I went to bed. 

6430, stop 6500

I thought 70 points is a lot of money for me at the moment so it might be silly if I don't quite know what I'm doing. 

I was thinking of a position trade, if it took out support, which it now has. Will look for a short near the open maybe.


----------



## tech/a

pavilion103 said:


> Not sure if this was stupid or not but last night I considered putting in an order when I went to bed.
> 
> 6430, stop 6500
> 
> I thought 70 points is a lot of money for me at the moment so it might be silly if I don't quite know what I'm doing.
> 
> I was thinking of a position trade, if it took out support, which it now has. Will look for a short near the open maybe.




PAV

Don't take trades like that if a loss of that magnitude would damage
your capital base.
All the hard work you've done preserving capital could be un done in an instant!

Patience you'll get on a running position trade soon enough!


----------



## pavilion103

tech/a said:


> PAV
> 
> Don't take trades like that if a loss of that magnitude would damage
> your capital base.
> All the hard work you've done preserving capital could be un done in an instant!
> 
> Patience you'll get on a running position trade soon enough!




I agree and that is why I didn't take it. 

A loss of 70 points wouldn't give me a whole lot of emotional grief, but it would wipe out some good profits in what could be a reckless move. 

I need to put myself in the position for a big move, but maybe now isn't quite as higher percentage time as it was a few days ago. 

I'm thinking that when I think a position trade is on the cards, to maybe take 2 contracts in a normal trade and hold one if it becomes a runner. It's at these times of large profit potential that I'd want to be a little more aggressive, because the opportunity cost of missing a move is larger!

A few strategies going through my head.


----------



## peter2

Well said tech/a. A very timely reminder for this thread. 

Classic newbie mistake: Impatience.
Symptom: Considering a gamble for a big result while ignoring your primary goals to build capital, gain experience, acquire skills.

(Edit)    
Pav: You can put yourself in a position trade using a 3-5m chart if you plan for it. 
It requires a very different trade (and risk) management style than what you and others are illustrating in this thread. You are either intra-day trading during the UK session or not.


----------



## pavilion103

peter2 said:


> Well said tech/a. A very timely reminder for this thread.
> 
> Classic newbie mistake: Impatience.
> Symptom: Considering a gamble for a big result while ignoring your primary goals to build capital, gain experience, acquire skills.




I agree. 

I think at the same time that IF the chart does pose a great position trade (not saying this one is), then it does make sense to take a bit of a bigger risk if it presents great profit potential.

If we are talking like 150-200 points then forget it. It's silly. If it is 50-100 points, then possibly depending on the chart. A 500 point move would make a bigger difference than a 100 point loss. Having said that, you'd want to be very sure. Even then I'd probably be trailing my stop where appropriate.


----------



## Trembling Hand

peter2 said:


> (Edit)
> Pav: You can put yourself in a position trade using a 3-5m chart if you plan for it.
> It requires a very different trade (and risk) management style than what you and others are illustrating in this thread. You are either intra-day trading during the UK session or not.




Yep.


----------



## pavilion103

I understand what you're saying.


----------



## tech/a

I put this move at 6291 on the immediate longer term.
If we want to look at a macro approach to the index
we can have a look at it

Plenty here to ponder!

*Click to Cringe---ERR expand*


----------



## tech/a

Now I don't want to be labelled as Biased.

But You have to admit that when a number of indexes show very similar patterns
As it did in 2008!!

Something is about to happen.
I feel there is a good chance that that will be BIG.

Pav
Look seriously at those position trades!!
Remember these are monthly so you could time it better
than now for some.


----------



## pavilion103

I agree. This is why I am considering greater risk to profit from this opportunity should it arise. 

Now how to go about it is another question for me. 

All looking very weak to me


----------



## kid hustlr

Monthly XAO and FTSE are really interesting.

Tech, in your experience, would you expect the recent FTSE highs of 6861 (on the monthly) to be tested to a greater degree or do you think the price action at the start of august was effectively 'that test'.

P.S you're only labelled bias if you get it wrong.


----------



## tech/a

kid hustlr said:


> Monthly XAO and FTSE are really interesting.
> 
> Tech, in your experience, would you expect the recent FTSE highs of 6861 (on the monthly) to be tested to a greater degree or do you think the price action at the start of august was effectively 'that test'.
> 
> P.S you're only labelled bias if you get it wrong.




I cant be sure.

But what I can say and see is that right now there is no real sustained push towards the highs of any bourse.

Had an email discussion with PAV and suggested that a position trade from here may take a few goes before it gets some breathing space.
IE The high is likely to be tested---or it may well already have been tested.

So for those who don't want to place a 100 tick stop (or so) the option is to keep setting the trade and suffering the frustration of being stopped out at B/E or close while we wait for a thrust lower to give space.

Everything seems to be rolling over so I will also be looking to get set.
To do so Ill be looking at a much higher timeframe'(Daily/Weekly) and using the index itself.

Ideally getting set short this week earlier was the play! (The day the FTSE dropped 100 Ticks and we/I were playing the wrong side!)

But not too late.

*My immediate thoughts*.

The weekly FTSE looks very much like a wave 1 of a possible 5 wave correction on the weekly
This is where we should be looking at timing.
Any test of that high would in my view be an entry opportunity.
Any thrust lower also the earliest available short play chance (NOW).
Stop at the top of the possible wave 1

Bit wide but if it goes no choice and should be able get on a lower wave 3 which wont re visit the high.


----------



## pavilion103

Any implications for our momentum portfolio?

Or as long as the setups are there we take them? That's how I understand it. When things turn down the setups will simply no longer be appearing?


----------



## tech/a

pavilion103 said:


> Any implications for our momentum portfolio?
> 
> Or as long as the setups are there we take them? That's how I understand it. When things turn down the setups will simply no longer be appearing?




Yes there are.
As we have seen in the portfolio it is behaving like everything else.
No momentum to the up side.
Frustratingly being stopped out of good setups.
Starts turning over on themselves.
All early signs of lack of demand.

So I'm looking to see if there is a breakdown of 2 things.
Firstly ---continuation patterns if they dry up.
Emerging patterns are being stopped more than anything as profit or losses are taken on any sign of strength!

Then of course the index it self seeing that roll over.
As there would in my view be a trigger from Overseas
the portfolio would be turned off once this occurred.
nothing is making strong profit at the moment as we can see
with all of the methods trading on ASF at the moment.
Its a real struggle.

Who'd want to trade SHARES for a living!


----------



## Trembling Hand

tech/a said:


> nothing is making strong profit at the moment as we can see
> with all of the methods trading on ASF at the moment.
> Its a real struggle.
> 
> Who'd want to trade SHARES for a living!




I wouldn't say nothing. I would say who would want to trade momentum for a living?!

Here is the daily P&L for my month so far,




Clearly in worst to best rather than date.


----------



## tech/a

Trembling Hand said:


> I wouldn't say nothing. I would say who would want to trade momentum for a living?!
> 
> Here is the daily P&L for my month so far,
> 
> View attachment 53932
> 
> 
> Clearly in worst to best rather than date.




Yes I think the answer to



> Who'd want to trade SHARES for a living!




Is they don't!


----------



## kid hustlr

Sold 6437, initial stop 6440.5

took it at 6430 feel like a dingus now.


----------



## pavilion103

Well I'm out of action. 

Bloody IB margin BS. 

I'll have to sell a couple of Aussie Stocks, holding too much atm. 

They said they should have the margin issues sorted out in a couple of weeks.


----------



## tech/a

If your doing ok with your stocks then fine 

If not---but you'll have to wait for tomorrow!

short 26


----------



## payday

kid hustlr said:


> Sold 6437, initial stop 6440.5
> 
> took it at 6430 feel like a dingus now.




Why would you feel like a dingus? Did you follow your plan when you took the profit? Was that your target or did you break your rules (or even worse - you don't have any rules)? Just because it keeps running without you on board does not mean you have done anything wrong. Think about this - what if price reversed right at 6430 and is up 100 points from there. Would you still feel like a dingus or like a trading god? I make trades like this day in day out - small singles here and there and I turn quite a nice profit each and every day (mostly). Occasionally I might hit a six but they are few and far between. For example - just the other day I entered a AUD futures short at 0.92 and covered at 0.9180 - hit my target and I took the profits. Of course - about 5 minutes later it plunged and "if" only I held on for another hour or 2 I would have been up over 70 pips and not the 20 pips I covered at. Hell - if I still held onto it until today I would have been up over 200 pips. Doesn't bother me at all. That's just part and parcel of trading.


----------



## pavilion103

tech/a said:


> If your doing ok with your stocks then fine
> 
> If not---but you'll have to wait for tomorrow!
> 
> short 26




What was your setup?


----------



## Trembling Hand

pavilion103 said:


> Well I'm out of action.
> 
> Bloody IB margin BS.
> 
> I'll have to sell a couple of Aussie Stocks, holding too much atm.
> 
> They said they should have the margin issues sorted out in a couple of weeks.




Pav two days ago you were talking about holding over night. You know that overnight margin is considerably more? X2 on most contracts.


----------



## tech/a

Here is a perfect example of jumping over a price level.
Re the latest discussion on stops.

Jumped straight through it.
Back filled now but it DOES happen.


----------



## kid hustlr

Agreed payday. I had my reasons for exiting but perhaps im a little jumpy at times. all part and parcel.

T/H with a monthly result like that you should put up the extra margin for pav!


----------



## pavilion103

Trembling Hand said:


> Pav two days ago you were talking about holding over night. You know that overnight margin is considerably more? X2 on most contracts.




Obviously I'll either need to hold less Aussie stocks or put more money in my account.


----------



## Lone Wolf

Short at 23. I advise others to go long.


----------



## Caveroute

Lone Wolf said:


> Short at 23. I advise others to go long.
> 
> View attachment 53946




To late !

Now out at 03


----------



## skyQuake

only have access to IB atm, what figure do u guys have for the 6:15pm low?

My chart looks different:


----------



## pavilion103

What a load of crap this is. 

As obvious short as you'd like.

If this keeps going and today smashes down I will be pissed!!!


----------



## Lone Wolf

skyQuake said:


> only have access to IB atm, what figure do u guys have for the 6:15pm low?




6411.5 for me.


----------



## Lone Wolf

Out at 6395. Vol died away after that spike down. Probably doesn't mean much, but I'm happy to put some monopoly money in the bank for a change. This should clear out my previous small losses, then some.

- - - Updated - - -



skyQuake said:


> only have access to IB atm, what figure do u guys have for the 6:15pm low?
> 
> My chart looks different:




I'm on sim by the way, I thought the feeds were the same, but maybe not.


----------



## CanOz

skyQuake said:


> only have access to IB atm, what figure do u guys have for the 6:15pm low?
> 
> My chart looks different




6397....


----------



## tech/a

Dont know which low you are referring to.
This is a 1 min of the "Z" not the Index.
Showing the closest low to 6.30 I have.
Its not like either of yours??

*Click to enlarge so you can see it!*
The figures are in the top left.

Ah I see I'm same as L/W
Nice trade by the way.
Support at the low.


----------



## CanOz

My chart is the same as that...


----------



## peter2

Nice trade Lone Wolf. I suggest you document the setup and add it to your playbook. 

btw: Canoz, you'll enjoy Bella's latest book, "The Playbook". I know you liked his first one, "One Good Trade".


----------



## Caveroute

short 6398.5

scratched


----------



## CanOz

This market is too short...


----------



## tech/a

Have 2 a 26 and just added 1 at 402---short


----------



## CanOz

peter2 said:


> btw: Canoz, you'll enjoy Bella's latest book, "The Playbook". I know you liked his first one, "One Good Trade".




Yes! I saw that...got four books on the go so i need to clean up a few first


----------



## Lone Wolf

tech/a said:


> Ah I see I'm same as L/W
> Nice trade by the way.
> Support at the low.




Yes, I was just about to post a pic of my 1min, it matches yours.



peter2 said:


> Nice trade Lone Wolf. I suggest you document the setup and add it to your playbook.




Thanks, every dog has his day.  Some trades I look at and um and ah about it. This one was obvious. I was worried that it might be too obvious if you know what I mean.


----------



## tech/a

Closed 1 at 00
think this will go lower
on US open
Wont be up.
So will set stops( B/E 26) and Go to bed. Soon.
Such is the building Industry.

See you later.


----------



## peter2

Lone Wolf: Bearish sentiment, Double top at resistance that was late night US support. 
Mark it up with heaps of detail so that it gets into your trading subconscious and after a lot of repetition you will automatically take them when you see them. 
----------------

It seems that there are enough people looking at the markets in the UK session to start a "Trading the UK session" thread. 
It could start when the Dax opens and include charts setups and trades from any of the main futures markets. If someone wants to trade the Greek, Spanish, Italian indicies, go for it I say. 

eg. I've been looking at CL this evening and watching the RSI divergence build. I finally got a HL and took the break-out trade. Unfortunately it hasn't moved much and I'm about to be stopped out for a small loss (no, it's turned around again) but another pair of eyes on another market would spice the thread up a little.


----------



## kid hustlr

Lone wolf your post made me laugh. Nice trade. Looking back this was a nice tight set up.

I got the short @ 6410, initial stop was 6417.5 Thats about as big of a slam dunk as I'll get as far as I'm concerned.

I panicked after the high volume reversal so out @ 6392.

Tech when did you get short @ 26?

Admire you guys who can watch it come back 20 points against you. Don't think I've got the metal for it yet!


----------



## tech/a

kid hustlr said:


> Lone wolf your post made me laugh. Nice trade. Looking back this was a nice tight set up.
> 
> I got the short @ 6410, initial stop was 6417.5 Thats about as big of a slam dunk as I'll get as far as I'm concerned.
> 
> I panicked after the high volume reversal so out @ 6392.
> 
> Tech when did you get short @ 26?
> 
> Admire you guys who can watch it come back 20 points against you. Don't think I've got the metal for it yet!




Post#920

I'm always prepared for every pivot to be tested.
It's when they aren't I'm suprised


----------



## CanOz

> I've been looking at CL this evening and watching the RSI divergence build. I finally got a HL and took the break-out trade. Unfortunately it hasn't moved much and I'm about to be stopped out for a small loss (no, it's turned around again) but another pair of eyes on another market would spice the thread up a little.




Did you stay up and hit that perfect little three drives to a high Peter?


----------



## peter2

Canoz: My target (+2R) for CL was 105.10. Happy with that as it's near the 200 EMA (5m chart). As you know CL can really run every now and then. Like to be in when it does. 

The 3 drives pattern is not in my playbook (and I didn't even see it) but you spotted a good example. Both you and TH have mentioned it a few times and it seems like a great pattern to use as an exit or to tighten exit stops.


----------



## CanOz

How about the RTH gap fill? This chart (800 tick) is RTH only, it sort of ignores what happened overnight to an extent...I use a 5 minute for ETH...

RTH = Regular Trading Hours
ETH = Extra Trading Hours


----------



## Lone Wolf

peter2 said:


> Lone Wolf: Bearish sentiment, Double top at resistance that was late night US support.
> Mark it up with heaps of detail so that it gets into your trading subconscious and after a lot of repetition you will automatically take them when you see them.
> ----------------
> 
> It seems that there are enough people looking at the markets in the UK session to start a "Trading the UK session" thread.
> It could start when the Dax opens and include charts setups and trades from any of the main futures markets. If someone wants to trade the Greek, Spanish, Italian indicies, go for it I say.
> 
> eg. I've been looking at CL this evening and watching the RSI divergence build. I finally got a HL and took the break-out trade. Unfortunately it hasn't moved much and I'm about to be stopped out for a small loss (no, it's turned around again) but another pair of eyes on another market would spice the thread up a little.




Yes. More screen time is what I need. Screen time spent identifying repeating patterns.
_____________________

I for one would welcome anything that draws more input from experienced traders. Not sure if starting a new thread is required though. As the thread starter, Pav should say what direction he wants this thread to take.

On one hand, a new thread would save derailing Pav's thread where his main focus is on the FTSE. But you also don't want too many different threads on intraday futures trading. You'll just end up with a bunch of low content threads that die out from lack of participation.

For example there is "That gold'n crude trading thread", started in July but hasn't seen a post since July. If a thread goes quiet for too long people forget it even exists. Not everyone is able or willing to post every day. But if you can keep a thread active, then people are more likely to make a contribution.

I've looked at CL before and would like to again. It seemed to have some nice runs from what I can remember. At this stage I need to focus on learning one instrument before I get distracted by others the behave differently. But there are times when the FTSE just isn't going anywhere and it'd be nice to have a second prospect.


----------



## peter2

TH posted some great suggestions in this thread almost 5 months ago. Definitely worth a re-read (post #22).


----------



## tech/a

Stopped out to the exact tick!!

On the plus side picked up 2 ticks from my last position.
I've gotta stop revealing my stop!


----------



## kid hustlr

Wow brutal tech. Someone knew you were there haha.

-----

Could this be one for the ages in the US treasuries market?


----------



## pavilion103

tech/a said:


> Stopped out to the exact tick!!
> 
> On the plus side picked up 2 ticks from my last position.
> I've gotta stop revealing my stop!




WOW!

Before I went to bed last night I thought, first thing I'm going to check in the morning is the futures and see how that 26 stop went!

If ever I'm in at the same place as you, I'm putting my stop 1 tick higher!!!!!!


----------



## Trembling Hand

tech/a said:


> Stopped out to the exact tick!!
> 
> On the plus side picked up 2 ticks from my last position.
> I've gotta stop revealing my stop!




You can see why newbies in FX land think that their brokers stop hunt. It not the brokers its just a frustrating market.


----------



## tech/a

Trembling Hand said:


> You can see why newbies in FX land think that their brokers stop hunt. It not the brokers its just a frustrating market.




Yeh

Hero to Zero!

Fortunately I have a day job and its not trading!


----------



## tech/a

Trembling Hand said:


> If learning is what you really want to do. Here would be my steps to learning futs if I was to do it again.
> 
> Spend some time learning basic NT (5 -10 hours)
> 
> Spend some money getting data from IB for SPI, Kospi, STW, Nikkei, ES, YM, CL, GC, DAX, FTSE and a few FX crosses. ($150 per month)
> 
> Set up NT each day to record depth and every tick for playback. (daily connect setup 5 min per day)
> 
> When you have some spare time each week spend it on the sim PLAYING on everyone of the above markets. Doing anything, putting on size, scalping, hanging on for a few hours, being in the market ALL the time etc etc(5 hours per week)
> 
> Then after a few months when you have had a good look at all markets and see how they are when they get wild and when they are boring as bat Sh!+ pick a few where you have some interest.
> 
> Then pick a few patterns that you think repeat in those markets and print them out and put them in a folder in sections, breakouts, wild starts, ranging, fake breaks, low range days, large range trending days etc...... What you want to do now is every day add to the folder whenever you see the same pattern in your markets.
> 
> With those two or three Markets and your growing collection of repeating patterns on the weekend and 1 or 2 day through the week put aside a few 2 hour blocks. Now here is the bit that will save you years and worthless side trips down the discipline road. Turn on NTs playback function. Set it to 10x speed and hit with all you have. Trade it seriously with 2 lots and don't kid yourself. Keep stats (which NT is good at) and really work on them. Win rate, R:R hold time etc. You will do 20 hours of intense trading and training in two hours. After a few months you will literately have years of examples played out in your head.




Thanks Pete for bringing this to light.

I'm actually working with Kris my son on a number of trading things.
He's the quant and I trade.
From watching what I do he has an interest in Futures.
Advice I will certainly pass on. 

*T/H*

The NT software can be loaded with IB data I gather.---never used it.
Is it worth buying the software or just the free version?---over the long run?
Kris wants to be able to add C# and C++ code to programmes and wonder if this is possible with NT.
Wealth Lab (This is what Vanstone uses) is another we are looking at along with AMI.---which we both have and I don't use.


----------



## Trembling Hand

tech/a said:


> The NT software can be loaded with IB data I gather.---never used it.




Yes.


tech/a said:


> Is it worth buying the software or just the free version?---over the long run?



Nah just use the free version. Exactly the same as the paid. Only diff is once you want to use it to auto trade then buy it. You may find you have moved on to something else. But I think its a good start as far as being simple at first and depending on your ability to program and the complexity you get into it will/should be able to handle that.



tech/a said:


> Kris wants to be able to add C# and C++ code to programmes and wonder if this is possible with NT.




C# is what you use to program it. With some added NT quirks.


tech/a said:


> Wealth Lab (This is what Vanstone uses) is another we are looking at along with AMI.---which we both have and I don't use.




No idea another you should look at is Multicharts I think from what I have hear from futs system traders is its better than NT.

If its disc trading NT is absolutely the way to go and its free!!


----------



## pavilion103

Just noticed this morning at the same time as Aus open, the FTSE Sep contract gapped down 6346 now. Not sure if it means much at this time of the day.

I have freed up cash again and will be back on tonight


----------



## waza1960

> If its disc trading NT is absolutely the way to go and its free!!



  Agreed



> No idea another you should look at is Multicharts I think from what I have hear from futs system traders is its better than NT.




 Multicharts Net version is definitely the go IMO .In my experience live trading Auto Strategies in NT is fatally flawed.
        NT is alright if you want to test and code ideas but that's it


----------



## tech/a

waza1960 said:


> Agreed
> 
> 
> 
> Multicharts Net version is definitely the go IMO .In my experience live trading Auto Strategies in NT is fatally flawed.
> NT is alright if you want to test and code ideas but that's it




Thanks
Guys

What does Multicharts use as a language?

That's fee as well isn't it?


----------



## Lone Wolf

tech/a said:


> Thanks
> Guys
> 
> What does Multicharts use as a language?
> 
> That's fee as well isn't it?




There are two versions of multicharts, the standard version and the .NET version.

The .NET version is what you want, it uses C#. Standard version uses its own language.

There is a free version and a paid version. The free version is fully functional, but limited to two symbols at a time.


----------



## Caveroute

tech/a said:


> Here is a perfect example of jumping over a price level.
> Re the latest discussion on stops.
> 
> Jumped straight through it.
> Back filled now but it DOES happen.
> 
> View attachment 53945




I submitted a market order, via a work in progress ninja strategy, to short the SPI on the open this morning, the order was submitted but never got filled ?  

I always thought market orders were guaranteed to be filled, but the price was open to question. 

Here nothing, as I watched as it drop like a stone. 

I'm not sure if this is a case in point or not but I'm currently investigating.


----------



## CanOz

Caveroute said:


> I submitted a market order, via a work in progress ninja strategy, to short the SPI on the open this morning, the order was submitted but never got filled ?
> 
> I always thought market orders were guaranteed to be filled, but the price was open to question.
> 
> Here nothing, as I watched as it drop like a stone.
> 
> I'm not sure if this is a case in point or not but I'm currently investigating.




What broker and what type of order? MOO?


----------



## Caveroute

CanOz said:


> What broker and what type of order? MOO?




N7/CQG/Amp.

Its a regular market order submitted on the close of the first 3 tick bar on the open of the SPI RTH.


----------



## Trembling Hand

Caveroute said:


> N7/CQG/Amp.
> 
> Its a regular market order submitted on the close of the first 3 tick bar on the open of the SPI RTH.




What did it say in the log of NT and AMP?


----------



## Caveroute

Trembling Hand said:


> What did it say in the log of NT and AMP?




22/08/2013 9:50 AM	Order	Order='1320725846/86980!AMP!ac86980' Name='short entry SPI' New state=Working Instrument='SPI 09-13' Action=SellShort Limit price=5026 Stop price=0 Quantity=1 Type=Market Filled=0 Fill price=0 Error=NoError Native error=''
22/08/2013 9:50 AM	Order	Order='1320725846/86980!AMP!ac86980' Name='short entry SPI' New state=Working Instrument='SPI 09-13' Action=SellShort Limit price=0 Stop price=0 Quantity=1 Type=Market Filled=0 Fill price=0 Error=NoError Native error=''
22/08/2013 9:50 AM	Order	Order='1320725846/86980!AMP!ac86980' Name='short entry SPI' New state=Accepted Instrument='SPI 09-13' Action=SellShort Limit price=0 Stop price=0 Quantity=1 Type=Market Filled=0 Fill price=0 Error=NoError Native error=''

I've sent the logs and trace files of to the support guys to see what they have to say. 

I don't know where that limit price of 5026 came from in the uppermost [most recent] entry, in fact I'm not sure why SellShortLimit price even appears .............


----------



## kid hustlr

kid hustlr said:


> Could this be one for the ages in the US treasuries market?
> 
> View attachment 53956




So this has broken through. I didn't take this trade because I'm away for the next few days and realistically to trade a longer term position I'd have to have my stop much wider than I would feel comfortable doing. Could be a big opportunity for a position trade!!!

To the futures traders out there, do you find that the big breaks are more likely to happen in after hours trading or regular? Just wonder if after hours trading its more likely as there's less volume and perhaps some stops get triggered?

FINALLY

*TH*

I owe you a beer.

Didn't size up on it as it's not my usual style BUT this was a corker.





EDIT: it's actually run slightly further now, incredible turn around though


----------



## payday

kid hustlr said:


> To the futures traders out there, do you find that the big breaks are more likely to happen in after hours trading or regular? Just wonder if after hours trading its more likely as there's less volume and perhaps some stops get triggered?




Sometimes. I think it was last year if memory serves me correctly that the ES and NQ were making big moves in the US overnight timeframe ( regular trading hours for us) and was virtually flat during the US hours. The last couple of months has seen big moves during US trading hours and small movements during our time. I find you just have to be prepared either way.


----------



## pavilion103

One thing that I've noticed with the FTSE is that when it opens 5:00pm Sydney time, it often shoots up in one direction very quickly, whether it be 10, 15 or 20 points. 

Am I missing something, or would it make sense to put a very tight entry in of a few ticks/points on entry. 
1. If it goes against you, you lose nothing
2. If it hits and then goes against you, you lose a few points 
3. If it goes in your favor, you move your stop to BE within 30 seconds and either take this profit or let it run


What am I missing?


----------



## CanOz

Shorts running for cover now...Did i mention the market was too short yesterday?


----------



## CanOz

Quiet in here, is everyone trading thru this news?


----------



## kid hustlr

CanOz said:


> Quiet in here, is everyone trading thru this news?




I'm just jumping on now, need a little break from looking at the screen I think I'm going insane.


----------



## Trembling Hand

kid hustlr said:


> need a little break from looking at the screen I think I'm going insane.




Don't fight it. let the insanity come. :vader:


----------



## tech/a

Short Order in at 52


----------



## pavilion103

Big wedge/triangle


----------



## tech/a

Cancelled
Boring tonight!


----------



## cynic

tech/a said:


> Cancelled
> Boring tonight!




That's good! I like boring! 

Boring is sssoooooo much easier to trade!


----------



## Caveroute

Caveroute said:


> N7/CQG/Amp.
> 
> Its a regular market order submitted on the close of the first 3 tick bar on the open of the SPI RTH.




ok, I know you all on the edge of your seats waiting to hear on this one. 

The SFE will not accept 'Market Orders' per se, see details below on supported execution types. 

The FTSE -  had to change the TIF from Gtc to 'Day'. 

All good now. 



2.2.1 Execution Order Types
1 = Limit (LIM) – LIM is a single session order (expires after one session). During Open phase, bid prices cannot be entered above the best ask price and vice versa. Backwardation is possible during the Pre-Open/Price Discovery phase where an open price is being determined.
2 = Timed Order (TIM) – TIM is a LIM order which expires at a designated expiry time or by the Close of the contract.
3 = Fill or Kill (FOK) – FOK is a LIM order with a life of twenty seconds. Partial fill of a FOK order is possible with any remaining quantity cancelled at expiry
8 = Good Till Cancel (GTC) - GTC is a multi-session LIM order which expires with contract expiry.
10 = Market Limit Order (MLM) – MLM is a single session order that allows order entry up to the allowed Market Depth of each contract (see Appendix 3.1). MLM is not valid during the Pre-opening phase and inter-spread contracts.


----------



## Trembling Hand

Caveroute said:


> ok, I know you all on the edge of your seats waiting to hear on this one.
> 
> The SFE will not accept 'Market Orders' per se, see details below on supported execution types.




Yeah there is actually lots of exchanges that will not accept real market orders that is why sometimes you can have stops blow and not get an execution. The broker is actually sending Limit orders with a large offset.


----------



## CanOz

From TTN:



> 14:47(EU) **Note: Eurex futures have encountered a technical glitch; they are investigating the situation- UPDATE- More info: http://www.eurexchange.com/exchange-en/trading/production-newsboard/610812/ - Source TradeTheNews.com


----------



## tech/a

Order in for Short DAX 8393 if it gets there.


----------



## tech/a

tech/a said:


> Order in for Short DAX 8393 if it gets there.




Have run 3/3 tick short trades in this range
Waiting to reset again.
 and Again


----------



## tech/a

Gave back 1
Now long + 4

Having fun all by my lonesome.
Night all.---err night


----------



## cynic

tech/a said:


> Gave back 1
> Now long + 4
> 
> Having fun all by my lonesome.
> Night all.---err night




Apologies, you must have misheard me. 

I didn't actually say "It's open season on DAX!"

What I did say was "It's open season on *Ducks*!"


----------



## boofis

peter2 said:


> Well said tech/a. A very timely reminder for this thread.
> 
> Classic newbie mistake: Impatience.
> Symptom: Considering a gamble for a big result while ignoring your primary goals to build capital, gain experience, acquire skills.
> 
> (Edit)
> Pav: You can put yourself in a position trade using a 3-5m chart if you plan for it.
> It requires a very different trade (and risk) management style than what you and others are illustrating in this thread. You are either intra-day trading during the UK session or not.




Would be interested to see an example of the position style you're referring to if you get a chance.


----------



## kid hustlr

Interesting start on the FTSE!


----------



## Trembling Hand

kid hustlr said:


> Interesting start on the FTSE!




Yeah!! Have a look at the HSI


----------



## pavilion103

Short 6470


----------



## kid hustlr

pavilion103 said:


> Short 6470




tell me u still have it!


----------



## pavilion103

Out 6440.

Jesaulenko you beauty!

30 points in 10 mins!


----------



## tech/a

pavilion103 said:


> Out 6440.
> 
> Jesaulenko you beauty!
> 
> 30 points in 10 mins!




Nice!


----------



## pavilion103

I only decided to come on while I was updating my Aussie stocks, so a bonus to get a nice trade. 

With IB does anyone know when the closed trade is converted to AUD? I notice that I'm out of the trade but my account is fluctuating by a few cents at a time. 
Is it the end of the day?
End of the month?


----------



## Caveroute

pavilion103 said:


> Out 6440.
> 
> Jesaulenko you beauty!
> 
> 30 points in 10 mins!




Yes nice one.

I was short at 6475 but let myself be stopped out at b/e ............

Still, made 20pts on the open - in ~3 minutes I reckon.

Currently short at 6433.

Out for b/e.


----------



## Trembling Hand

pavilion103 said:


> With IB does anyone know when the closed trade is converted to AUD? I notice that I'm out of the trade but my account is fluctuating by a few cents at a time.
> Is it the end of the day?
> End of the month?




Never. you have to do it yourself.


----------



## pavilion103

Trembling Hand said:


> Never. you have to do it yourself.




How does that work exactly?
How do I convert it?


----------



## pavilion103

Also no one answered a previous question I had about the open.

If I have a tight stop 3-5 points and bet on the market breaking out one way, then move my stop to BE almost immediately, wouldn't this be a huge probability play?
I mean, most times it seems to shoot off in one direction for at least 15 or 20 points.

Am I missing something? Is poor fill the only risk?


----------



## Caveroute

pavilion103 said:


> Also no one answered a previous question I had about the open.
> 
> If I have a tight stop 3-5 points and bet on the market breaking out one way, then move my stop to BE almost immediately, wouldn't this be a huge probability play?
> I mean, most times it seems to shoot off in one direction for at least 15 or 20 points.
> 
> Am I missing something? Is poor fill the only risk?




This is one of my automated strategies.

Simple in concept but has a few challenge in execution. 

Like, which way do you go and how do you make sure you get in, at a price that makes statistical sense.


----------



## captain black

pavilion103 said:


> How does that work exactly?
> How do I convert it?




http://ibkb.interactivebrokers.com/node/1172


----------



## captain black

captain black said:


> http://ibkb.interactivebrokers.com/node/1172




That video goes through the process of creating a currency pair. A simpler way is to right click on your "market value" section of the account window and select "close all non-base currency balances"


----------



## pavilion103

Thanks for that. Much appreciated. 

A second long @ 6432


----------



## Caveroute

short 6449


----------



## pavilion103

hmmm

Stop on my long is 6444. 

Last trade for me.

- - - Updated - - -

Out


----------



## Caveroute

Caveroute said:


> short 6449




Booted out at 6439.


----------



## kid hustlr

FTSE tags the cash close almost to the tick then gets turned right back around.

EDIT: might have missed it by a few but the classic Can OZ fill the gap trade none the less!


----------



## tech/a

Short Z 402 saw DAX coming off was a bit late so Z was stalling --took the trade
Close 97 long 98
Closed long 03

Short 01
Out B/E


----------



## kid hustlr

is Z the FTSE?

Weird price action. looks like it wants to go down but theres not much gusto behind it.

If this tests the lows on weak volume I'll be looking for a long


----------



## tech/a

kid hustlr said:


> is Z the FTSE?
> 
> Weird price action. looks like it wants to go down but theres not much gusto behind it.
> 
> If this tests the lows on weak volume I'll be looking for a long




Yes.
DAX is AX

- - - Updated - - -

Long DAX 57
Out 56 and short
Out 58

Looked like it was going to hold support well.
Hence long.
But then kept pressing the support and breaking through
so short.
No direction so I'll quit while I'm a little in front.


----------



## kid hustlr

the duckman scalps now?

decision time here in the FTSE


----------



## tech/a

kid hustlr said:


> the duckman scalps now?
> 
> decision time here in the FTSE




No just getting what I can.
Would prefer to let it go.

Its just not showing a clear direction.
(Setting up for it (A move in a direction) if you know what I mean)

DAX just broke through and I got 48 short

out 52

Bed.


----------



## kid hustlr

Gah, missed the long opportunity on the FTSE. bit slow to pull the trigger and shes gone.

might be my bed time to.


----------



## Caveroute

short 6411.5


----------



## skyQuake

tech/a said:


> No just getting what I can.
> Would prefer to let it go.
> 
> Its just not showing a clear direction.
> (Setting up for it (A move in a direction) if you know what I mean)
> 
> DAX just broke through and I got 48 short
> 
> out 52
> 
> Bed.




DAX also cracked out of the box on the daily


----------



## CanOz

skyQuake said:


> DAX also cracked out of the box on the daily




8132 is the top of the gap back in like...July, its like a magnet.


----------



## Caveroute

Caveroute said:


> short 6411.5




Out 6403


----------



## kid hustlr

That level around 6380-6395 is starting to become an area of pretty big significance in the FTSE. Tested it 3-4 times during the cash hours and has been turned around each time. Could prove to be an opportunity if it breaks.


----------



## tech/a

You know after 2 nights of trading Noise
Id much rather wait for a decent position.

I've become very good at watching them pass by!
Personal note is to expand timeframe and adjust trading
methodology to suit.


----------



## Trembling Hand

tech/a said:


> You know after 2 nights of trading Noise
> Id much rather wait for a decent position.




Ha! You are getting sucked into the flippers vortex!!

Soon you will be doing as we all do. Flipping bid ask spreads during lunch. :


----------



## tech/a

Trembling Hand said:


> Ha! You are getting sucked into the flippers vortex!!
> 
> Soon you will be doing as we all do. Flipping bid ask spreads during lunch. :




Rather be eating lunch!


----------



## kid hustlr

tech, TH,

a penny for your thoughts.

The more I trade and the more I read your guys comments I feel I'm SLOWLY starting to get a feel for what tends to work on a consistent basis.

I find the best set ups for me are the ones where I fade the highs/lows (because of various factors/reasons) or I identify some good continuation patterns and am able to jump on board.

I get the impression (especially from you TH) and also reading the FX thread(s) that most typical 'break out' trades simply don't work often enough to be +EV. *Would you agree with this comment?* TH you obviously have the most experience with this and I feel like whenever an obvious break out trade is apparent you feel its a 'retail sucker play' and it will just get reversed pretty quickly.

Are there any occasions when obvious break out trades should be taken or do you find the best 'break out' trades come from identifying the chance they will break BEFORE they do and getting on them BEFORE HAND.


----------



## pavilion103

kid hustlr said:


> tech, TH,
> 
> a penny for your thoughts.
> 
> The more I trade and the more I read your guys comments I feel I'm SLOWLY starting to get a feel for what tends to work on a consistent basis.
> 
> I find the best set ups for me are the ones where I fade the highs/lows (because of various factors/reasons) or I identify some good continuation patterns and am able to jump on board.
> 
> I get the impression (especially from you TH) and also reading the FX thread(s) that most typical 'break out' trades simply don't work often enough to be +EV. Would you agree with this comment? TH you obviously have the most experience with this and I feel like whenever an obvious break out trade is apparent you feel its a 'retail sucker play' and it will just get reversed pretty quickly.
> 
> Are there any occasions when obvious break out trades should be taken or do you find the best 'break out' trades come from identifying the chance they will break BEFORE they do and getting on them BEFORE HAND.




I'm finding that with the breakout ones. I've narrowed it down to 3 main setups for me. I've been deceived many times with false breakouts and have wised up to this a little.

If I get time ill post a few charts explaining what I mean. 

Interested to hear TH thoughts also.

How did you go last night?


----------



## kid hustlr

pavilion103 said:


> I'm finding that with the breakout ones. I've narrowed it down to 3 main setups for me. I've been deceived many times with false breakouts and have wised up to this a little.
> 
> If I get time ill post a few charts explaining what I mean.
> 
> Interested to hear TH thoughts also.
> 
> How did you go last night?




didn't take a trade. was looking for the long and the set up was there but I was a little gun shy so passed on it. Didn't feel it was a slam dunk at the time. As tech said a lot of noise last night. nothing wrong with sitting my hands


----------



## pavilion103

kid hustlr said:


> didn't take a trade. was looking for the long and the set up was there but I was a little gun shy so passed on it. Didn't feel it was a slam dunk at the time. As tech said a lot of noise last night. nothing wrong with sitting my hands




Very good decision.


----------



## havaiana

kid hustlr said:


> ...
> 
> Are there any occasions when obvious break out trades should be taken or do you find the best 'break out' trades come from identifying the chance they will break BEFORE they do and getting on them BEFORE HAND.




I'm not Tech or TH, but I reckon determining likelyhood and the strength of a break, besides time of day and fundamental factors, is just to determine the likely positioning of the other short term traders and technical traders in the market. Some obvious ones like:

- The more times a level has been hit without being broken, the more stop orders that are building up on the other side
- If there is a false breakout on one side of a range it increases the number of stop orders on the other side of the range
- As a trend is slowing down, there are less and less people prepared to enter with it late or they are already in and then (picture a trend line becoming less and less steep) the closer the stops under the lows/highs are coming to eachother the more likelyhood of a self feeding stop cascade

Just principles of where people in the market will be entering and exiting and where it may be causing liquidity gaps or one sided orderflow in the market (or a lack thereof)

IMO a way of determining a successful breakout is simply that the further it breaks out and more time the less likelyhood of it coming back.

Edit: I actually try to make a story of what is happening by looking at the market from 4 perspectives as it's unfolding
-If I'm long where are the spots I would be exiting, and then the same for short (where are the take profits, where are the panic points)
-If I had a massive market moving buy order to work into the market how would I do it cheaply, and then the same for a sell


----------



## kid hustlr

Really good thoughts hav, printing now


----------



## peter2

Another classic newbie mistake: Thinking you know what is going to happen next.

" ... the set up was there but I was a little gun shy so passed on it. .... nothing wrong with sitting on my hands

" Very good decision." 

If you see your setup and don't take it. That is a big trading mistake. It is most definitely a bad decision and wrong. Now that you see the trade would have been a loser you convince yourself that you know what's going to happen next. You think you can spot the setups that will and wont work out. I bet you can't. 

Obviously "your" setup isn't yours or more likely you don't have the confidence to take "your" setup. If there was something about that setup that you didn't like then make it a part of the guidelines for a perfect setup. You mentioned a lot of noise. It might be that your setup works best in situations with low volatility. Find out (research) and if that's right you have learned an important confirmation filter. Add it to your setup checklist. 

You won't get any better relying on your emotional responses. Search for the facts and base your decisions on them.


----------



## pavilion103

I meant good decision not to place any trades in a choppy market last night if it didn't look like there was much there.

Better to take fewer good setups than looking to make a setup out of everything.


----------



## kid hustlr

The trade would have been a 20 tick winner fwiw.

I didn't take the trade as I had not seen this particular set up in that context before.

EDIT: I do recognise the confirmation bias or results orientated thinking you are getting at.


----------



## tech/a

pavilion103 said:


> I meant good decision not to place any trades in a choppy market last night if it didn't look like there was much there.
> 
> Better to take fewer good setups than looking to make a setup out of everything.




There are setup's in all timeframes.
Even in noise.
Point Peter is making is its not a good habit of getting into.
Seeing setups and not pulling the trigger due to fear of loss.

If a setup appears and you would normally take it but you don't.---its not good judgement its fear.

However if you've perfected your discretionary filter of setups to return 100% accuracy then ignore my babble!


----------



## Caveroute

peter2 said:


> Another classic newbie mistake: Thinking you know what is going to happen next.
> 
> " ... the set up was there but I was a little gun shy so passed on it. .... nothing wrong with sitting on my hands
> 
> " Very good decision."
> 
> If you see your setup and don't take it. That is a big trading mistake. It is most definitely a bad decision and wrong. Now that you see the trade would have been a loser you convince yourself that you know what's going to happen next. You think you can spot the setups that will and wont work out. I bet you can't.
> 
> Obviously "your" setup isn't yours or more likely you don't have the confidence to take "your" setup. If there was something about that setup that you didn't like then make it a part of the guidelines for a perfect setup. You mentioned a lot of noise. It might be that your setup works best in situations with low volatility. Find out (research) and if that's right you have learned an important confirmation filter. Add it to your setup checklist.
> 
> You won't get any better relying on your emotional responses. Search for the facts and base your decisions on them.




Yep.

The problem with cherry picking is you always pick the bad cherries.

It's a game of probabilities after all.


----------



## pavilion103

Of course. If its a setup in terms of the context of the chart that you have decided you will always take as part of your trading plan, then it's a bad idea to pick and choose when you will take it. It's predetermined that you will always take these when they appear.


----------



## tech/a

Long 50
Same DAX 81


----------



## pavilion103

Only one decent trade that wasn't stopped near BE. 

Short 6473
Out 6455


----------



## tech/a

Stopped at B/E on both


----------



## kid hustlr

FTSE finally popped that 6480 level, ran up to 6500 then got turned around pretty quickly.

Kind of just bouncing around in a range the last few days. Question is which way will it break


----------



## Trembling Hand

kid hustlr said:


> I get the impression (especially from you TH) and also reading the FX thread(s) that most typical 'break out' trades simply don't work often enough to be +EV. *Would you agree with this comment?* TH you obviously have the most experience with this and I feel like whenever an obvious break out trade is apparent you feel its a 'retail sucker play' and it will just get reversed pretty quickly.




Yes, successful break out trades are the least common set up in futures markets. I think newbies struggle with this when they come from a stock picking back ground and expect Index futures to act the same way. When you trade stocks you look for momentum setups and play the carry on from that momentum. Indexes rarely work the same way. That is because of the constituents that make up the Index. To have a true break you basically need at least 50% of the constituents to be behaving as break outs and then going on with it. Its very rare to have that setup.

You do get very big pushes in directions but my guess (I'll get to this later) is that 80% of the time you will have some reversion back to the mean after a certain time. That is because even if the strong stocks that keep going the weaker ones will start to fail and pull the index back robbing the overall index of momentum.



kid hustlr said:


> I find the best set ups for me are the ones where I fade the highs/lows (because of various factors/reasons) or I identify some good continuation patterns and am able to jump on board.




So do I. in part because you can have a stop that is very/relatively tight and more importantly you get so many more setups. A small edge repeated 20 times a day is much better than one that appears once a week.



kid hustlr said:


> Are there any occasions when obvious break out trades should be taken or do you find the best 'break out' trades come from identifying the chance they will break BEFORE they do and getting on them BEFORE HAND.




As to my 80% chance of a break failing I have some time ago tested the times when you have a large range day that starts at one end and ends at the other. There usually is only 2 or 3 per month. If that is your setup and you only win 50% of them  thats going to leave you with either not much to do all month or getting cut to bits playing a setup that hardly ever turns up.

With that said it obviously can make a huge advantage if you can recognise when to play that way. To catch a 2% move in an index or greater and hang on with some size can make the diff between long term success or failure. Especially if instead of riding it you fight it all the way and smash your account.

So with intraday this is really the essence of long term success. Learning to read what  "type" of market we have and how long that will stick. Whenever I hear good traders talk about their upcoming trades or their approach to the day I rarely hear them talking specific TA "patterns"...... they talk in themes.


----------



## 5oclock

Great post TH, thanks


----------



## kid hustlr




----------



## CanOz

More GOLD there TH...file away for a big reference thread one day....


----------



## pavilion103

Yeh, Learning a lot from TH in here.


----------



## tech/a

I'm hopeful we can get some good discussion around this topic



Trembling Hand said:


> Yes, successful break out trades are the least common set up in futures markets. I think newbies struggle with this when they come from a stock picking back ground and expect Index futures to act the same way. When you trade stocks you look for momentum setups and play the carry on from that momentum. Indexes rarely work the same way. That is because of the constituents that make up the Index. To have a true break you basically need at least 50% of the constituents to be behaving as break outs and then going on with it. Its very rare to have that setup.




Breakouts occur all the time in all timeframes. Id argue that pretty well all trades are looking for a move in the direction of the trade taken. This will involve either a break up or down or a continuation from a reversion of a break in a lesser time frame.
I would argue that a PROLONGED and SUSTAINED breakout either long or short wont occur in INDEXES unless 
something on the Macro economic front occurs in and around the bourse being traded.



> You do get very big pushes in directions but my guess (I'll get to this later) is that 80% of the time you will have some reversion back to the mean after a certain time. That is because even if the strong stocks that keep going the weaker ones will start to fail and pull the index back robbing the overall index of momentum.




Yes this does happen--really then trading away from the Daily, Weekly, Monthly range and the mean on a timeframe basis Daily, Weekly, Monthly should be part of any analysis. Similar to that which Frank is involved in.
Add that to Current support and Resistance levels in all timeframes and we have analysis which should be more likely to indicate direction.




> So do I. in part because you can have a stop that is very/relatively tight and more importantly you get so many more setups. A small edge repeated 20 times a day is much better than one that appears once a week.




Fading Breakouts works --- a given until it doesn't. Even fades fall back into losing positions if the trend is continuing and not reverting---again analysis at that point in time and in that timeframe.
Last nights FTSE traded well for 5 ticks on some fades (Other than the open) and continued often to lengthen the current trend. Personally I think fades are as subject to movement back to the mean in both range and time as breakouts.




> As to my 80% chance of a break failing I have some time ago tested the times when you have a large range day that starts at one end and ends at the other. There usually is only 2 or 3 per month. If that is your setup and you only win 50% of them  thats going to leave you with either not much to do all month or getting cut to bits playing a setup that hardly ever turns up.




There are many stats Id love to know--this being one. How long a trend stays in motion once its moves X in Ticks and/or in Time Y is another.
Literally 100s of what if's---shortly Kris and I will be able to answer these questions. 




> With that said it obviously can make a huge advantage if you can recognise when to play that way. To catch a 2% move in an index or greater and hang on with some size can make the diff between long term success or failure. Especially if instead of riding it you fight it all the way and smash your account.




There are many ways to index trade and often seemingly contrary to each other.
Positions can be held both long and short at the same time. I agree not enough is done on trade landscape by myself when it comes to plotting a strategy on the indexes. I would suggest that many are like me who see a setup in isolation and take it---without consideration or analysis of Time/Mean or Range.



> So with intraday this is really the essence of long term success. Learning to read what  "type" of market we have and how long that will stick. Whenever I hear good traders talk about their upcoming trades or their approach to the day I rarely hear them talking specific TA "patterns"...... they talk in themes.




Type--yes and then the current landscape of the index relative to where it is in time and mean will determine trading---well it should!

Lot more work here around 500 hrs. I reckon.
Looking at Multicharts and fortunately Kris is conversant in C# and C++
I look forward to this leg in my journey.

Interested to see what others have found.
If anyone has spent time investigating Todd Kreuger (Wyckoff Based)
His trade setups are strongly based around the likes of that being discussed.


----------



## boofis

tech/a said:


> There are many stats Id love to know--this being one. How long a trend stays in motion once its moves X in Ticks and/or in Time Y is another.
> Literally 100s of what if's---shortly Kris and I will be able to answer these questions.




You'd better be careful if Kris is an academic, he'll ignore all your outlier days attributing them to experimental error :


----------



## tech/a

boofis said:


> You'd better be careful if Kris is an academic, he'll ignore all your outlier days attributing them to experimental error :




I'm fortunate that Kris isn't the normal academic.
He doesn't have a set view.
Id rather have him in my toolbox.
Love his questions. 
And he's in expensive--NOW!


----------



## Trembling Hand

Tech I don't know what you are trying to say? Or are you just want to say something


----------



## barney

Trembling Hand said:


> Tech I don't know what you are trying to say? Or are you just want to say something




Tech is after your Freemasons code to time and range TH  ..... Don't trust him:

I already have it worked out  ... see below.


----------



## tech/a

Trembling Hand said:


> Tech I don't know what you are trying to say? Or are you just want to say something




I thought I was conversing --- opening conversation --- opening up points of discussion.
Stating views and ideas I though others would or could comment on.

It appears I haven't done this very well then??


----------



## peter2

I think you are both stating that there are optimum times to trade break-outs and fake-outs. Break-outs work best in strongly bullish/bearish conditions (trends) which don't happen very often. Fake-outs work best in non- strongly trending markets which happen more often than not so that there are many more fake-out opportunities than traditional break-outs. 

TH and Tech/a definitions of break-outs differ slightly in that TH refers to the classic break-out of a larger time frame or session H/L. Tech/a break-outs refer to a break of any H/L or a line on any time frame. 

The difficult task for any trader is determining what the current market condition is and which trade opportunity has the best probability of working out. The complexity increases when you look at multiple time frames. Each time frame has it own set of market conditions. A trend can occur in one time frame indicating the break-outs will work well but on another time frame the trend has stalled and fake-outs  work well.  When we are sync with the market most of our trades work well. That is until the market condition of the time frame we are trading changes. 

A quant will be able to measure and monitor the "age" of any trend. The only work of the age of trends I've read was by Victor Sperandeo (Trader Vic). Once you have these stats I assume the aim would be to trade the break-outs of a new trend and when the trend ages avoid break-outs and switch to fake-outs.

I agree that Frank Dilernia has mastered this concept as well as anyone and it's a pity that I have been unable to get to the same level of understanding.


----------



## Caveroute

tech/a said:


> I thought I was conversing --- opening conversation --- opening up points of discussion.
> Stating views and ideas I though others would or could comment on.
> 
> It appears I haven't done this very well then??




Ok, a starter fro 10 - "There are many stats Id love to know--this being one. How long a trend stays in motion once its moves X in Ticks and/or in Time Y is another."


In computing terms this is tough logic.

Programatically [sp] ,how would you define the start / end of a trend ?

I have logic that identifies pivots, at any bar number granularity you care to choose, but making sense of these from a trend perspective has defeated me - for now anyway. 

Higher highs, lower lows etc is fine, but everything is fractal and .... oh my head hurts. 





I


----------



## CanOz

Caveroute said:


> Ok, a starter fro 10 - "There are many stats Id love to know--this being one. How long a trend stays in motion once its moves X in Ticks and/or in Time Y is another."
> 
> 
> In computing terms this is tough logic.
> 
> Programatically [sp] ,how would you define the start / end of a trend ?
> 
> I have logic that identifies pivots, at any bar number granularity you care to choose, but making sense of these from a trend perspective has defeated me - for now anyway.
> 
> Higher highs, lower lows etc is fine, but everything is fractal and .... oh my head hurts.
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> I




You could just find out how big the average swings are in your instrument of choice, how large the average daily ranges are etc.., This is easy if you have the right tools, you just need a zig zag indicator in NT, then export the data in a study.


----------



## Caveroute

CanOz said:


> You could just find out how big the average swings are in your instrument of choice, how large the average daily ranges are etc.., This is easy if you have the right tools, you just need a zig zag indicator in NT, then export the data in a study.




I wish, but I think there is a bit more to it than that.

for example:

What % would you use ?

What if the key pivots lie on different % thresholds. 

Where does the trend start ?

Where does it end, we all know it's not on the break of the trend line [well depends on you terminology I guess] , but maybe on the retest of the previous extreme - but then most reversal's fail and the trend will continue ..........

What the brain can determine in seconds is not always easily definable in binary logic.


----------



## CanOz

Tech,

There are allot of questions that i have about my fav products as well, like how long is the typical open range, how large is that range usually, how far does it break when it breaks out, how large are the average swings in the contract, before the US open and after, on and on.....If one is good at excel, I'm sure your son would be able to qualify with it and some of the other statistical apps...then you can export all kinds of data from NinjaTrader into apps to sort it. You don't need to backtest years and years of data...I've already done some on the DAX, SPI etc...

This is not new, most of the prop guys have this info given to them and several well known traders openly share their information. FT71 for example has allot of info. These guys know their products very well. TH has done some stat analysis on his markets as well. You can buy this information as well, if you don't want to do it yourself.

Yet i have still been told that its all based on past data so it bears no relevance on the present...


----------



## CanOz

*Here's an example* of the minimum most intra-day traders are doing for stats on their markets....


----------



## Trembling Hand

CanOz said:


> Yet i have still been told that its all based on past data so it bears no relevance on the present...




Even worst, what the hell use is it all going to be when your stop is 10 ticks away from your entry. :


----------



## CanOz

Trembling Hand said:


> Even worst, what the hell use is it all going to be when your stop is 10 ticks away from your entry. :




Well that's it, how many even know how far their stop should be or when they're wrong and should get out if they don't use stops?


----------



## 5oclock

More nuggets, thanks TECH.


----------



## tech/a

CanOz said:


> Well that's it, how many even know how far their stop should be or when they're wrong and should get out if they don't use stops?




Just another stat to investigate.


----------



## Boggo

CAC40 playing the game tonight, support coming up at 3960 though.


----------



## pavilion103

Not saying that this WILL go down, but this consolidation provides a good opportunity for a position trade if it is to break lower. 

I think the way I may tackle it is to take 2 contract trades early this week and give one more room to run just in case it does get a nice run down. I believe that the large POTENTIAL makes it worth trying this.


----------



## kid hustlr

Tech I assume you sit roll week out given any volume analysis is effectively null and void during this time?


----------



## tech/a

kid hustlr said:


> Tech I assume you sit roll week out given any volume analysis is effectively null and void during this time?




For longer term VSA analysis with background needed then for the futures contract I would not be using the "Z"
But the FTSE Index itself provides plenty of insight.
For shorter term I can still use it. 
I think there is a continuous contract chart somewhere but I (obviously) don't use it.


----------



## kid hustlr

FWIW I'm still using the September contract (as I assume you are to) which is 'U'. It confuses me you keep referring to it as "Z" but I'm sure there's another reason for that. 

Minor technical difficulties aside,

Not sure what to expect today, Equities markets well bid on the back of the china pmi + Syria 'no bombing for now' talk and I can see the FTSE fut's up 50 or so points since sat mornings close. Probably expecting it push up a little more on the open and then settled down. labor day in the USA tonight so I can't imagine things would get too crazy.

Gotta react not predict though!


----------



## boofis

kid hustlr said:


> FWIW I'm still using the September contract (as I assume you are to) which is 'U'. It confuses me you keep referring to it as "Z" but I'm sure there's another reason for that.
> 
> Minor technical difficulties aside,
> 
> Not sure what to expect today, Equities markets well bid on the back of the china pmi + Syria 'no bombing for now' talk and I can see the FTSE fut's up 50 or so points since sat mornings close. Probably expecting it push up a little more on the open and then settled down. labor day in the USA tonight so I can't imagine things would get too crazy.
> 
> Gotta react not predict though!




Z is the FTSE contract code when using IB, so that might be why?


----------



## kid hustlr

boofis said:


> Z is the FTSE contract code when using IB, so that might be why?





ta mate that would be it id say!


----------



## tech/a

boofis said:


> Z is the FTSE contract code when using IB, so that might be why?




Its the FTSE futures code from E Signal
That's the data supplier for Trade guider and what I use.
It is also the code for IB.

Yes it is confusing with the month codes.

You can anticipate rather than predict.
And better when you get it right than reacting.
Reacting is way too slow but most of us cant help ourselves.


----------



## Boggo

Different data suppliers use different codes and most software is pre-coded for various data feeds.
In the pic below on the left are the various codes just for the FTSE.


----------



## tech/a

Boggo said:


> Different data suppliers use different codes and most software is pre-coded for various data feeds.
> In the pic below on the left are the various codes just for the FTSE.




WHats the software BOGGO ?
The screen shot


----------



## Boggo

tech/a said:


> WHats the software BOGGO ?
> The screen shot




MTPredictor. The pic is the standalone version which is pre-configured for all the data suppliers shown.
The Ninjatrader version works with any of the additional data suppliers that Ninjatrader uses.


----------



## tech/a

Thanks BOGGO

I'm set for tonight!
Short 07


----------



## Boggo

tech/a said:


> Short 07




This will be interesting 

- - - Updated - - -



Boggo said:


> This will be interesting




Don't fight the *Blue*


----------



## peter2

Current resistance level (FTSE) looks very interesting on the chart.  

US Labor Day holiday (tonight) will dampen any moves. There is always the chance that a politician somewhere will open their mouth and say something that might cause the index to move.


----------



## tech/a

Sweet spike 
added another at 20--short


----------



## Caveroute

ok, long at 13  lets see how it unfolds.


----------



## tech/a

Caveroute said:


> ok, long at 13  lets see how it unfolds.




Yes going up easily on low volume
On the short side Id like to see higher volume spikes with long selling tails.
Not looking good at the mo.
Ill hang in there---expect this high to be tested
How its tested will determine my stance.


----------



## Boggo

Caveroute said:


> ok, long at 13  lets see how it unfolds.




One possibility ???


----------



## Caveroute

Yes, 6524/6 as a first target - if it has the legs ??

A 2nd leg that is ...............


----------



## tech/a

DAX Bolted!


----------



## Caveroute

Caveroute said:


> Yes, 6524/6 as a first target - if it has the legs ??
> 
> A 2nd leg that is ...............




Out for 6419


----------



## Boggo

Target area hit...


----------



## Boggo

Next target if support gives way ??


----------



## Boggo

Close enough for tonight.


----------



## kid hustlr

tech you averaging little duck. good to see both are now in the $$$.

Shame about those big buy orders into the close or you would be sitting pretty.

Regardless this appears to be a long term play and you have set yourself up well.

Might be calling you Scrooge mcduck soon!

---- 

Have an inquiry which I'm typing up now.


----------



## kid hustlr

As I mentioned the other day I'm noticing my most comfortable trade is to fade highs/lows which appear to have failed.

I note this example from TH a few weeks back:



Trembling Hand said:


> Not if you had a 1 min chart.
> 
> View attachment 53506
> 
> 
> Enter at the either of the reversal bars on the retest. Pick your flavour stop.




See the picture below for my question. With these fade trades, do we have to wait for a set up/reversal bar or can we just enter and use a tight stop? The risk is going to be super low if we can get a fill just a couple of ticks from where our stop is.


----------



## payday

These are some of my favourite trades too. What I do is wait for the second candle to break under 50% of the entire move of the the bullish dominant candle in the first area that you have circled. This makes for a very high percentage play and with a decent sized order makes for a very profitable few minutes (hours). I tend to trade from the 30 minute charts though and not as short term as you. That second circled area is also another good place to have entered as the second candle broke down past the 50% mark of the previous candle.


----------



## tech/a

I personally trade them differently.
Don't have charts here so will give my view tonight.
My 2 contracts are still open.


----------



## kid hustlr

payday said:


> These are some of my favourite trades too. What I do is wait for the second candle to break under 50% of the entire move of the the bullish dominant candle in the first area that you have circled. This makes for a very high percentage play and with a decent sized order makes for a very profitable few minutes (hours). I tend to trade from the 30 minute charts though and not as short term as you. That second circled area is also another good place to have entered as the second candle broke down past the 50% mark of the previous candle.




Interesting ideas payday, I may experiment with this. I don't think the time frame should matter for something like this.



tech/a said:


> I personally trade them differently.
> Don't have charts here so will give my view tonight.
> My 2 contracts are still open.




tx mate, look forward to it


----------



## Trembling Hand

kid hustlr said:


> As I mentioned the other day I'm noticing my most comfortable trade is to fade highs/lows which appear to have failed.
> 
> I note this example from TH a few weeks back:
> 
> 
> 
> See the picture below for my question. With these fade trades, do we have to wait for a set up/reversal bar or can we just enter and use a tight stop? The risk is going to be super low if we can get a fill just a couple of ticks from where our stop is.




The bar numbered 2 is way too late for me to be entering a trade. I would be exiting any short on that bar and the few bars after. Considering yesterdays context with all markets so strong its a reasonable set up but by delaying all you have done is stuffed up the R:R, at best you would think that kind of play, given the market, was only ever a 1:2. I wouldn't even enter on bar 1 without feeling somewhat uneasy.


----------



## kid hustlr

Gee bullish first half hour on the Z


----------



## Caveroute

Trembling Hand said:


> The bar numbered 2 is way too late for me to be entering a trade. I would be exiting any short on that bar and the few bars after. Considering yesterdays context with all markets so strong its a reasonable set up but by delaying all you have done is stuffed up the R:R, at best you would think that kind of play, given the market, was only ever a 1:2. I wouldn't even enter on bar 1 without feeling somewhat uneasy.
> 
> View attachment 54213




My 2 cents - 

This is a classic trend reversal pattern, trendline break, lower high re-test, another double top [bonus xtra].

It didn't reverse, just went sideways into a trading range, often the case. 

I agree, a good R:R trade - even if it didn't really trigger here.

Whoops, sorry TH replied to the wrong note.


----------



## kid hustlr

LOLOLOL have the worst day ever then just as I take a long set up apparently 2 missiles go off


----------



## CanOz

Fark....



> (RU) Russia Defense Ministry has detected the launch of 2 ballistic missiles in the Mediterranean - RIA- Missiles seen headed towards the East Mediterranean - Source TradeTheNews.com


----------



## Caveroute

tech/a said:


> I personally trade them differently.
> Don't have charts here so will give my view tonight.
> My 2 contracts are still open.




From last night ?

Nice one.


----------



## kid hustlr

I cannot get over that. seriously wtf. luckily only lost 7.5 points but wtf I could not have timed that worse


----------



## CanOz

kid hustlr said:


> I cannot get over that. seriously wtf. luckily only lost 7.5 points but wtf I could not have timed that worse






> (SY) Syria gas pipeline has been blown up - Source TradeTheNews.com




There ya go....


----------



## skyQuake

Apparently Russia detected some ballistic missile launches.

Tech you sly dog you KNEW!


----------



## CanOz

> TradeTheNews.com EU Market Update: Alleged test launch of ballistic missiles in Mediterranean spooks markets - Source TradeTheNews.com




Well it certainly did give them a spook..lol


----------



## kid hustlr

Can et. al whats the best way to get updates on random political occurences/events like what happened yesterday.

Obviously you can pay for the sqwauk box and anything important gets read over the wires but is there a free online service that gives updates every 5 mins or so?


----------



## tech/a

skyQuake said:


> Apparently Russia detected some ballistic missile launches.
> 
> Tech you sly dog you KNEW!




Sorry
Been away---- Black ops.


----------



## havaiana

kid hustlr said:


> Can et. al whats the best way to get updates on random political occurences/events like what happened yesterday.
> 
> Obviously you can pay for the sqwauk box and anything important gets read over the wires but is there a free online service that gives updates every 5 mins or so?




forexlive

Covers everything that will move forex so they report on commod's, indices, bonds etc too. Updates aren't as quick as a paid service, but quick enough considering. You can also have it set for auto updates. I can't recall a time that something significant has happened to the market and they have not had an accurate answer posted within a couple of minutes. They watch the paid services and seem to be pretty well connected to the market chatter. For example i saw the everbright securities fat finger posted there before i saw it anywhere else. They also highlight speeches and stuff that will be happening that aren't on a lot of calenders.

Would also like to know of any other resources myself


----------



## havaiana

Just to add, not sure what time the market reacted, but this is the time stamp of the mediterranean missile thing you were caught up in

"September 3rd, 2013 09:00:34 GMT'

http://www.forexlive.com/blog/2013/09/03/russian-defence-ministry-detects-two-ballistic-objects-fired-toward-eastern-mediterranean/

They would have posted the heading quickly first then updated it as more info come in, not sure if the time stamp is the initial posting time, or time of last update


----------



## kid hustlr

ta bud


----------



## tech/a

tech/a said:


> I personally trade them differently.
> Don't have charts here so will give my view tonight.
> My 2 contracts are still open.




My rules.

Not saying they are the best rules just mine!




Meant to mention I only tend to use this with lower time frames Under 5 min as the move is generally short.
Any longer and its all over.


----------



## CanOz

Nice VWAP trades on the way down...


----------



## tech/a

Classic
another short at 42
Stop above---a fair way above.

You should be able to spot it!!!


----------



## kid hustlr

tech/a said:


> My rules.
> 
> Not saying they are the best rules just mine!
> 
> View attachment 54235
> 
> 
> Meant to mention I only tend to use this with lower time frames Under 5 min as the move is generally short.
> Any longer and its all over.




Appreciate the response.

Very ironic you used that example as I actually took a trade during that time! (see chart marked below).

I'm a little confused with your explanation, are you suggesting the area's marked with a '?' you would steer clear of entering a trade? 

Below is the 1m chart of the trade I entered with my thoughts as to why. Would this not have been a trade you would have entered? V. interested in your thoughts!


----------



## tech/a

Kid will answer later. But in general I would not be confident that there was a fade trade in those volumes and bars.

Woke this morning to see all positions exited at 6483
Net 30 ticks.

Not particularly good trading but when you work my hrs
right now I have to adapt.


----------



## Trembling Hand

kid hustlr said:


> Appreciate the response.
> 
> Very ironic you used that example as I actually took a trade during that time! (see chart marked below).
> 
> I'm a little confused with your explanation, are you suggesting the area's marked with a '?' you would steer clear of entering a trade?
> 
> Below is the 1m chart of the trade I entered with my thoughts as to why. Would this not have been a trade you would have entered? V. interested in your thoughts!
> 
> View attachment 54242




I would say no. Its a grind lower over a very long time. If that pattern was more compressed you would possibly look to fade dips but its taking forever to go anywhere and all the time making lower highs. This traps a lot of longs.


----------



## kid hustlr

cheers guys.


----------



## payday

My 2 cents worth - I wouldn't have looked for a fade trade in that area you circled simply because there wasn't enough of a sell off - just a lot of chopping and ranging price action. I don't use volume in my analysis so I can't comment from that perspective but for me, the action after the missile report would have caught my eye. Hindsight is 20/20 of course!


----------



## kid hustlr

FTSE just one way traffic at the moment, great if you got on at the bottom, hard to get on now!


----------



## CanOz

kid hustlr said:


> FTSE just one way traffic at the moment, great if you got on at the bottom, hard to get on now!




Same as the DAX, waiting for a PB...rate decision later...non event IMO


----------



## kid hustlr

Example of a trade I took tonight, are you guys more comfortable with this fade? My thoughts on the chart.


----------



## payday

That's textbook - well done kid


----------



## CanOz

Awesome rally of yesterdays VWAP


----------



## kid hustlr

Hey guys, one more before i call it a week. Wasn't trading this last night just studying it this morning. my thoughts on what I would have done are marked on the chart.

I'm interested to see if you guys would have taken the fade initially and secondly whether the break out trade was a strong option.

I still think the fade sets up pretty well, my only concern is that realistically we didn't actually bounce very much after the strong push down which is a pretty bearish sign. That being said I think the set up is pretty good and obviously the perfect set up can still be a loser, its just about repeating the process over and over. 

Once again perhaps I'm not recognizing the context as well as I should be - an area I'm still working on.


----------



## boofis

Kid, 

Take this as encouragement to keep going and not criticism, remember to try and shoehorn your setups into whatever the conditions are; e.g. the last time we talked yesty you were bullish, so in hindsight it ran 55 (points?) from lowish to highish in the direction of your original bias, did you place a long trade? 
Again, to clarify for everyone reading, I'm not trying to put your trade down or anything like that at all, just encouragement. 
You read the scenario right from open but didn't capitalise on your original bias (may be a myriad of reasons, I don't know) so just keep going, don't throw in the towel


----------



## havaiana

kid hustlr said:


> ...
> I'm interested to see if you guys would have taken the fade initially and secondly whether the break out trade was a strong option.




There are some patterns I've noticed with currencies, but it could just be in my head and not sure if equities do the same.

See how the market is rolling over to the downside, I kind of like for the rounded tops to stop or rounded bottoms to start before I fade, for me that roll over and break pattern 'usually' means continuation, until the rollover starts to stop, if that makes sense...

Also, I need to see what is below me if I am planning to fade (long), I don;t like to fade into levels that I consider more likely to break like I posted in my previous post, I like to fade into space, will post a couple of pictures what I mean in a few mins, I see support and resistance in reverse


----------



## CanOz

My take on the FTSE, i missed two obvious opportunities for longs on it, and the DAX from the open just due to being distracted, so instead of trying to get in I just waited...


----------



## havaiana

Note I stole these images from Domino at forexfactory rather than have to draw them myself

I see the support and resistance in the gaps between the levels, not at the levels themselves. I like to fade when there is a lot of space between the level that has just broken and the next one.
So a fade short here I like as there are no levels close above:




It also works in reverse, I like to trade into levels with little space between the levels.
So this ones looks better to me than than the one above because of the compressed levels below it that I am trading into:




edit 1, I like to see the up move starting to level out or rollover as mentioned in the previous posts than just being a straight trendline like the picture above. I like to see the trendline get less steep

2, Some fades I will take if there are no levels I am trading 'into'. This will usually be a quick and extended spike, so there will be no levels, but it has happened far enough and quick enough that a 'vacuum effect' is still in play The typical fade the stop-run kind of play


----------



## CanOz

I do that as well, prefer the bigger moves that can happen in the areas where its thinner in transactions...even better are moves out of bracket areas where there's a ton of stops...


----------



## havaiana

CanOz said:


> I do that as well, prefer the bigger moves that can happen in the areas where its thinner in transactions...even better are moves out of bracket areas where there's a ton of stops...




Exactly, just added in an edit to include that after reading you post, because sometimes the stop-run type plays will not have the levels below it to trade into that I have shown in the pics


----------



## havaiana

One more pic, more to show off my mspaint skills than anything else




If I have one of those high volume spikes I am looking to fade (short), I like to see the rounding on the top, not on the bottom. In the picture I like the setup on the right.

The one on the left is running into limit orders on the retrace
The one on the right is running into limit orders on the retest


----------



## kid hustlr

lol as absurd as the ms paint pic is it actually made the penny drop for me.


----------



## CanOz

havaiana said:


> One more pic, more to show off my mspaint skills than anything else
> 
> View attachment 54272
> 
> 
> If I have one of those high volume spikes I am looking to fade (short), I like to see the rounding on the top, not on the bottom. In the picture I like the setup on the right.
> 
> The one on the left is running into limit orders on the retrace
> The one on the right is running into limit orders on the retest




Yes, i get that...although your rendition does resemble a viagra add i saw once...Maybe i can find a practical example...


----------



## CanOz

Here's another one that i see sometimes, a strong impulsive sort of move, followed by a little consolidation then a break out to a measured sort of move, then a fail all the way back to the consolidation, sometimes lower again...

- - - Updated - - -

As i was MS Painting the HSI just did exactly that!!


----------



## Boggo

CanOz said:


> Here's another one that i see sometimes, a strong impulsive sort of move, followed by a little consolidation then a break out to a measured sort of move, then a fail all the way back to the consolidation, sometimes lower again...




This may be what you have got there CanOz, watch out for the little sucker up turn in the middle at "b".
Diagram is from here with my additions http://www.babypips.com/school/abc-correction.html


----------



## CanOz

Thanks Boggo


----------



## Caveroute

Boggo said:


> This may be what you have got there CanOz, watch out for the little sucker up turn in the middle at "b".
> Diagram is from here with my additions http://www.babypips.com/school/abc-correction.html




Hi Boggo, 

Given the benefit of hindsight, would you buy the package that all your screen shots,well except this particular one,  come from again ?

Txs.


----------



## Gringotts Bank

Boggo said:


> This may be what you have got there CanOz, watch out for the little sucker up turn in the middle at "b".
> Diagram is from here with my additions http://www.babypips.com/school/abc-correction.html




The way it's drawn there, it's a head and shoulders reversal, one of the most reliable patterns in the book.

The ABC part looks like a measured move scenario, which is less reliable.


----------



## Trembling Hand

Gringotts Bank said:


> The way it's drawn there, it's a head and shoulders reversal, one of the most reliable patterns in the book.




You got any stats on that? Personally I reckon its just more TA myth. For which I have some stats. I followed the H $ S thread somewhere on here and it was running at a absolutely miserable 16% win rate and then the avg win was only 1:1!. Basically F'n hopeless "pattern".


----------



## Gringotts Bank

Trembling Hand said:


> You got any stats on that? Personally I reckon its just more TA myth. For which I have some stats. I followed the H $ S thread somewhere on here and it was running at a absolutely miserable 16% win rate and then the avg win was only 1:1!. Basically F'n hopeless "pattern".




You show me your stats and then I'll show you mine.


----------



## tech/a

Gringotts Bank said:


> You show me your stats and then I'll show you mine.




How about mine??






http://thepatternsite.com/BustHST.html


----------



## Boggo

Caveroute said:


> Hi Boggo,
> 
> Given the benefit of hindsight, would you buy the package that all your screen shots,well except this particular one,  come from again ?
> 
> Txs.




New thread here Caveroute
https://www.aussiestockforums.com/forums/showthread.php?t=27370&p=793003#post793003


----------



## Caveroute

Boggo said:


> New thread here Caveroute
> https://www.aussiestockforums.com/forums/showthread.php?t=27370&p=793003#post793003




Thanks Boggo


----------



## kid hustlr

OK FTSE boys where are you?

Last two days have been pretty bullish, finished a long way off its lows, leads me towards a bullish bias, especially with asia being decently strong today.

Trade what we see I guess!


----------



## cynic

kid hustlr said:


> OK FTSE boys where are you?
> 
> Last two days have been pretty bullish, finished a long way off its lows, leads me towards a bullish bias, especially with asia being decently strong today.
> 
> Trade what we see I guess!




My Goose is bearish, but my Grail is bullish! This means that I'm having an each way bet at present.


----------



## CanOz

Choppy slow day of trade, maybe a test of 6532...

miserable Monday...

Edit, two more targets on the lower side, are 6517 and 6510


----------



## kid hustlr

CanOz said:


> Choppy slow day of trade, maybe a test of 6532...
> 
> miserable Monday...




Yeah really slow at this stage isn't it? Maybe a chance to get short the FTSE then but passed on it as the R:R was no good


----------



## boofis

Any of you paint gurus care to comment on when you would've exited my last trade of this arvo? 
Tried to explain a little of what I was thinking process wise during the trade. And obviously a better scenario would be to take one off and leave a couple to run but just don't have that available to me..yet!


----------



## kid hustlr

FTSE rolls coming in, makes it hard to analyse volume!


----------



## tech/a

Got legs!!
Can see this going to 6650 ish
Long 6574


----------



## pavilion103

Haven't been on much boys!

Been focusing on my momentum portfolio at the moment. 

Will be back on the futures a bit more at some point soon.


----------



## tech/a

tech/a said:


> Got legs!!
> Can see this going to 6650 ish
> Long 6574




Exit at 79

Short DAX 421
Post chart in a mo.


----------



## havaiana

boofis said:


> Any of you paint gurus care to comment ...




It's grinding up to slow for me, I like to be on the side of the impulse or fading in anticipation of an impulse the other way, as that move went that far up so slow without the impulse I would have been out earlier than you and missed more of it. Sometimes if I luck into an entry within a couple of ticks from the bottom I will just let it run.

These types of moves though, If you find yourself long a fair way into one, you know there would have been a bunch of people shorting for the retrace all the way up and have not really had a chance to get out, the longer it grinds like that the higher the chance of a short covering impulse


----------



## tech/a

Closed at 17
This is going to come off but has some upside yet.
I think there will be some nasty up ward spikes from short covers.

Perhaps another 30-70 ticks to the upside yet.


----------



## Boggo

Another view perhaps, Z 5 min chart. Seems to be struggling a bit though.


----------



## tech/a

Boggo said:


> Another view perhaps, Z 5 min chart. Seems to be struggling a bit though.




I think Highly likely
More upside before coming off.
Maybe even a day or so.


----------



## havaiana

havaiana said:


> ...
> These types of moves though, If you find yourself long a fair way into one, you know there would have been a bunch of people shorting for the retrace all the way up and have not really had a chance to get out, the longer it grinds like that the higher the chance of a short covering impulse




In regards to this, there is one happening right now on AUD, you can see where i got short for the fade, then exited not much further up, it has just grinded up too far now and I expect the chance of some puking to begin is too high to be short




Watch this thing tank now that i have posted it...

edit, pic not very clear, short is the little red x at 75, exit is blue x at 76


----------



## havaiana

havaiana said:


> ...it has just grinded up too far now and I expect the chance of some puking to begin is too high to be short...




and the follow up, there was the little pop where i have put the line, you can see from the high volume bar it happened to be absorbed pretty well so far, i still wont be reshorting yet, i want it to take out the daily highs now, if it tanks from here I miss it


----------



## havaiana

and the re-entry. Broke the daily high (have zoomed out so the daily high can be seen) and no follow through, got a fill on the top to the tick (topstep sim). Going to go to bed and let it play out from here with a couple of tick stop. There are some longer term highs pretty close to here so wouldn't take any more shorts if it keeps going higher than this anyway


----------



## Boggo

tech/a said:


> I think Highly likely
> More upside before coming off.
> Maybe even a day or so.




Made that target, pity I had to go out tonight, a few good signals on Forex too


----------



## tech/a

Boggo said:


> Made that target, pity I had to go out tonight, a few good signals on Forex too




Think its close maybe a day more.
Will either power through or resist again.
Watch for nasty spikes as Short stops some long term could be taken out.
Syria maybe the key!

Strange how these important events culminate often at crucial
technical (Chart) areas.


----------



## kid hustlr

logged on just in time to miss a small long opportunity near the lows on the ftse, hope you guys got it!

edit: woulda been stopped at b/e so no harm done!


----------



## boofis

Boggo said:


> Another view perhaps, Z 5 min chart. Seems to be struggling a bit though.




How is that line of yours calculated Boggo? On the close of each bar and if the price continues to close above each bar, above a pre-determined value, then the line keeps readjusting to that high as it goes? If that makes sense  lol.


----------



## kid hustlr

sold the break, no dice it bounced, -4.5 pts


----------



## Boggo

boofis said:


> How is that line of yours calculated Boggo? On the close of each bar and if the price continues to close above each bar, above a pre-determined value, then the line keeps readjusting to that high as it goes? If that makes sense  lol.




Not sure which line you are referring to but if you look at the video in my first post on the MTPredictor thread and still have some questions then ask on there.
Link - https://www.aussiestockforums.com/forums/showthread.php?t=27370
Cheers.


----------



## tech/a

Having some great success with this method

Best with the DAX for RANGE!

*

*!


----------



## Trembling Hand

tech/a said:


> Having some great success with this method
> 
> Best with the DAX for RANGE!
> 
> *
> View attachment 54350
> *!




Oh my god Tech you are a joke!!

Cannot believe your hypocrisy!!


----------



## tech/a

Lost me?


----------



## Lone Wolf

tech/a said:


> Lost me?




I believe TH is referring to the infamous "punching out buy sell orders like a boxer on ice" comment. Ahh, good times.


----------



## tech/a

Lone Wolf said:


> I believe TH is referring to the infamous "punching out buy sell orders like a boxer on ice" comment. Ahh, good times.




He did it all day---then
I've had enough in an hr.

Come on that comment is legendary !!!


----------



## Boggo

Long on the DAX @ 8486


----------



## Boggo

Boggo said:


> Long on the DAX @ 8486




Stopped out at breakeven.


----------



## Wysiwyg

havaiana said:


> and the re-entry. Broke the daily high (have zoomed out so the daily high can be seen) and no follow through, got a fill on the top to the tick (topstep sim). Going to go to bed and let it play out from here with a couple of tick stop. There are some longer term highs pretty close to here so wouldn't take any more shorts if it keeps going higher than this anyway




You are for sure the chum for sharks. There are no "longer term highs pretty close"! Stop kidding yourself and pretending you have experience. Stop posting newbie loser jargon.


----------



## KurwaJegoMac

Wysiwyg said:


> You are for sure the chum for sharks. There are no "longer term highs pretty close"! Stop kidding yourself and pretending you have experience. Stop posting newbie loser jargon.




How about you shut up and let the guy do his thing. He's not being detrimental to thread - unlike you he's posting his analysis and trades. If you're such an expert give him advice, don't shoot him down for trying.


----------



## havaiana

Wysiwyg said:


> You are for sure the chum for sharks. There are no "longer term highs pretty close"! Stop kidding yourself and pretending you have experience. Stop posting newbie loser jargon.




Ok, you call me out, I call you out, hopefully you are willing to back it up like I am and we can have your penis measuring contest.

When you are posting shorter term trades like most people in this thread are, 2 month highs are longer term.

If you are happy to send your real money statements to the mods (because I am), we can start a thread where i will put my real money trading performance and newbie loser jargon against your 'shark' (nice pro jargon!) experience to see who the 'chum' is. Just say the word and we set it up.

I wont be filling this thread with any more arguments, so just start the new thread and we set it up or STFU princess

edit to add princess


----------



## tech/a

Frankly I'm happy the Duck isn't copping the usual flak.

Anyway Back to what I was doing!


----------



## pavilion103

Finally back in the action today. One loser of about 4 points and this short at 6599.


----------



## pavilion103

A nice little down move. 35 points in it so far. 
Broken slightly below the upward channel on the daily chart (although not by any significant amount)


----------



## pavilion103

Out 6565. 
34 points. 

Now a very tight long. 
Entry 6565
Stop 6563

Then I'm heading out.

- - - Updated - - -

Out. Done for the night.


----------



## cynic

tech/a said:


> Frankly I'm happy the Duck isn't copping the usual flak.
> 
> Anyway Back to what I was doing!
> 
> View attachment 54355




Sounds like you need to invest in a water fowl flak jacket!

I do hope they are available in black.

I know how you prefer to stay in the black!


----------



## kid hustlr

Duckman + fellow break out traders.

Any thoughts on this possible set up. It probably looks more like a 'stock' set up rather than a futures set up but perhaps its a good one? The next few bars would tell the story I would think?




EDIT: given the pullback at this stage appears to be quite shallow and theres possibly an exhaustion of supply I'm considering a LONG


----------



## tech/a

The first two bars show LOTS of supply at these levels.
You need to see how it reacts to a test.
Personally I think the best trade will be short on the test.
Stop at the high (enough above it to not get hunted)


Let me know!


----------



## kid hustlr

tech/a said:


> The first two bars show LOTS of supply at these levels.
> You need to see how it reacts to a test.
> Personally I think the best trade will be short on the test.
> Stop at the high (enough above it to not get hunted)
> 
> 
> Let me know!




Will do. Agreed about the supply, the second bar especially suggests a few sellers. will update the chart later int he day.


----------



## kid hustlr

tech/a said:


> Let me know!


----------



## pavilion103

FTSE gapped up!


----------



## tech/a

Short FTSE 46


----------



## kid hustlr

tech/a said:


> Short FTSE 46




nice. I can't see much on the charts so im guessing you just jumped on for the ride?

weird bar there on the 1m.


----------



## tech/a

kid hustlr said:


> nice. I can't see much on the charts so im guessing you just jumped on for the ride?
> 
> weird bar there on the 1m.




The massive volume on the impulse 
looked at at least a partial fill of the gap.
closed at 31 after getting back from a quick walk
with the dogs.
Again not a pretty trade.


----------



## pavilion103

Have been trading far less on FTSE. Went for a nice hill hike, got back and saw a set up within 5 minutes of turning it on. This is my trade. 

I've had much less screen time, far fewer trades, but greater profitability and much higher accuracy.

We'll see how this one goes. Risk has been reduced from initial stop.


----------



## tech/a

Spectacular breakout on the DAX
Long 8639


----------



## CanOz

tech/a said:


> Spectacular breakout on the DAX
> Long 8639




You chasing it Tech?


----------



## tech/a

CanOz said:


> You chasing it Tech?




Think its sustained.
Have one at this time wide stop--well for me
13 ticks.

Its a crap entry I know---now!!
Might not be a little later!


----------



## CanOz

tech/a said:


> Think its sustained.
> Have one at this time wide stop--well for me
> 13 ticks.
> 
> Its a crap entry I know---now!!
> Might not be a little later!




Pretty bullish move i guess. Caught me off guard, i was long on the FESX, then thought it looked like a trap so i exited and got short at an iceberg, then it swept everything, me included.


----------



## Boggo

Short on Z at 6580.5


----------



## CanOz

Quite a stop run on the DAX there...


----------



## Boggo

Boggo said:


> Short on Z at 6580.5




Stop tightened to 6567.5

Edit, done


----------



## tech/a

Stopped last night.
Thought it was sustainable!


----------



## kid hustlr

Gone for it in a big way.

Tech, TH, anyone, any thoughts?


----------



## kid hustlr

kid hustlr said:


> Gone for it in a big way.
> 
> Tech, TH, anyone, any thoughts?
> 
> View attachment 54443




Just to summarise this, I bought them back @ 965 for a nice little win, nothing major. 

I remember a few weeks back when I got fisted over the missile launch thing on the ftse and then I ran through the charts with you guys and you said me trying to buy the dip was stupid as a lot of longs get caught on that chart pattern where it grinds down over time making lower highs.

Happy with myself that in this case I was able to recognise it again and do the opposite.

My major issue is whether I should have perhaps held onto them (or maybe some) in the hope we get the big break lower?


----------



## CanOz

Why do you have to decide now? Can you wait until the market reaches your "line in the sand" and then watch the depth and see who is winning? If that level is going to be rejected, which is at least likely initally, then there should be some responsive buyers and selling into the level may diminish somewhat. If its going to break, then you should see the market tapping on the level (in the depth) until it pops...Or depending on how thick your market is, you could see a lean, where the market refuses to go offer...


----------



## kid hustlr

CanOz said:


> Why do you have to decide now? Can you wait until the market reaches your "line in the sand" and then watch the depth and see who is winning? If that level is going to be rejected, which is at least likely initally, then there should be some responsive buyers and selling into the level may diminish somewhat. If its going to break, then you should see the market tapping on the level (in the depth) until it pops...Or depending on how thick your market is, you could see a lean, where the market refuses to go offer...




Obviously I can take it as it comes and that's actually what I did, I was just inquiring as to how the guys who generally trade the charts would view this set up, would they hold for the long haul or take the profit available. As you said though, and this is so true of so much in trading, 'it depends'.

The problem with trading something like XT 'off the charts' is, apart from the fact you don't get many chart set ups, it doesn't take much for your expectation to be smashed. For example If I'm bidding 95.965 and don't get them because one big order comes and lifts 95.970, all of a sudden for me to get out I might need to pay up the next price.


----------



## CanOz

kid hustlr said:


> Obviously I can take it as it comes and that's actually what I did, I was just inquiring as to how the guys who generally trade the charts would view this set up, would they hold for the long haul or take the profit available. As you said though, and this is so true of so much in trading, 'it depends'.
> 
> The problem with trading something like XT 'off the charts' is, apart from the fact you don't get many chart set ups, it doesn't take much for your expectation to be smashed. For example If I'm bidding 95.965 and don't get them because one big order comes and lifts 95.970, all of a sudden for me to get out I might need to pay up the next price.




Hmmm, its a pretty thick market?

Nevermind, i'll try and load a workspace up for it, curious to see how the VWAPs plot on it and what the depth is like.


----------



## kid hustlr

CanOz said:


> Hmmm, its a pretty thick market?
> 
> Nevermind, i'll try and load a workspace up for it, curious to see how the VWAPs plot on it and what the depth is like.




I'd actually be interested to see how the vwaps plot on it fwiw.

It'sa  very thick market until an important data release comes out or a bomb goes off haha


----------



## CanOz

kid hustlr said:


> I'd actually be interested to see how the vwaps plot on it fwiw.
> 
> It'sa  very thick market until an important data release comes out or a bomb goes off haha




Heres a look at the TPO, the VWAPs and the depth and sales...


----------



## ThingyMajiggy

Hey Can how did you get the colours changed just on the numbers bits of the bids and offers, I see you have a lighter blue and a brighter red where the orders are on bid and offer, tried to do that yesterday but must have missed it


----------



## CanOz

ThingyMajiggy said:


> Hey Can how did you get the colours changed just on the numbers bits of the bids and offers, I see you have a lighter blue and a brighter red where the orders are on bid and offer, tried to do that yesterday but must have missed it




In the settings, under appearance, bid and ask...you select the quantity that you want to highlight. I just happened to have it set on a very low value while in the that instrument. I generally use it to highlight size on the bid or offer.

I would show you a practical example but my data provider is really being an **shole today....


----------



## ThingyMajiggy

CanOz said:


> In the settings, under appearance, bid and ask...you select the quantity that you want to highlight. I just happened to have it set on a very low value while in the that instrument. I generally use it to highlight size on the bid or offer.
> 
> I would show you a practical example but my data provider is really being an **shole today....




Ohh duuh, didn't even think of that  cheers. 

Who's your data provider?


----------



## kid hustlr

Don't have time to post a chart but the FTSE weekly is really starting to get back up towards the highs. Perhaps a chance to establish a longer term position?


----------



## tech/a

kid hustlr said:


> Don't have time to post a chart but the FTSE weekly is really starting to get back up towards the highs. Perhaps a chance to establish a longer term position?




Yes its looking like a time to develop something longer term.

Its pretty obvious the Yanks don't want to stop stimulus
---they know the catastrophic consequences.


----------



## CanOz

FTSE100, D,W,M...D is the futures contract, the lower ones the index.


----------



## kid hustlr

tech/a said:


> Yes its looking like a time to develop something longer term.
> 
> Its pretty obvious the Yanks don't want to stop stimulus
> ---they know the catastrophic consequences.




Hmmm sounds like someone has a bullish undertone


----------



## Boggo

kid hustlr said:


> Don't have time to post a chart but the FTSE weekly is really starting to get back up towards the highs. Perhaps a chance to establish a longer term position?




One option ?
(ZU Weekly - click to expand)


----------



## CanOz

My take is that 6550 should hold as that was the start of the last successful auction higher. However, if that fails then the bracket low of 6530 must hold to remain bullish in the short term, there could be some significant liquidation beyond that... 

The last high at 6658 seems to be a "poor" high, without excess. These tend to get revisited.

either way, if we open between 6593 and 6571 we can expect a balanced day. Out side of this we may see some test of the areas mentioned above. 

It is worthy to note that we've taken out a short term channel as well, but the fed induced rally has clouded things somewhat.



Edit: i had the CAC40 numbers in there as i was looking at the wrong VWAP chart, but the correct TPO, since changed them to the proper levels...


----------



## kid hustlr

Tech,

in this thread you talk about breakout set ups for stocks.

The below chart is 10 year bond futures but do you think this shape is one that would appeal to you as having potential to break to the upside? I note the big push up and the fact the retracement has only made it some 1/3 of the way back.




EDIT: or do you feel there is too much supply at the top of that range?


----------



## tech/a

kid hustlr said:


> Tech,
> 
> in this thread you talk about breakout set ups for stocks.
> 
> The below chart is 10 year bond futures but do you think this shape is one that would appeal to you as having potential to break to the upside? I note the big push up and the fact the retracement has only made it some 1/3 of the way back.
> 
> View attachment 54478
> 
> 
> EDIT: or do you feel there is too much supply at the top of that range?




Would like more chart.
What is the time frame
What is the highest volume so I can relate it to the other bars.


----------



## CanOz

Well there goes 6530....


----------



## kid hustlr

tech/a said:


> Would like more chart.
> What is the time frame
> What is the highest volume so I can relate it to the other bars.




Timeframe for that chart is actually 400 minutes.

On a longer term basis we have been in a downtrend however this week is effectively the first week of this roll period. I'm less concerned about the 'background' so much as I'm interested as to whether this as a stand alone set up would be a possible breakout option.

Chart below is 15 minutes version. You can see that the volume has quietened down the last few days.


----------



## kid hustlr

tech/a said:


> Would like more chart.
> What is the time frame
> What is the highest volume so I can relate it to the other bars.




Tech, I'm still interested in your thoughts if you get an opportunity.

Just as a follow up, here's where its at now. It broke up this morning.

Tech, am I correct in saying that the major factors you consider is how far the pattern retraces from its high and the amount apparent supply near the initial high? In this case there appeared to be some supply but not an overly huge amount and the retracement was quite shallow with a nice bottoming pattern on limited volume, both signs of perhaps an opportunity to get long?


----------



## tech/a

kid hustlr said:


> Tech, I'm still interested in your thoughts if you get an opportunity.
> 
> Just as a follow up, here's where its at now. It broke up this morning.
> 
> Tech, am I correct in saying that the major factors you consider is how far the pattern retraces from its high and the amount apparent supply near the initial high? In this case there appeared to be some supply but not an overly huge amount and the retracement was quite shallow with a nice bottoming pattern on limited volume, both signs of perhaps an opportunity to get long?
> 
> View attachment 54485




Sorry really busy at the office--change of Govt!!

In answer (Briefly) Yes your correct in part.
I am particularly interested in how each test is carried out in any range.
The support and resistance Zones (Rather than a set pivot).
Im working on a method of calculation of volume for the length of each swing to then see if volume is accumulating or distributing within the pattern. This can be done in any timeframe.
We are trying to make the indicator dynamic so that we can see a sideways pattern and hopefully an indication in price and range which tells a different story.

Just haven't had the time to do it.
This is not a new theory but perhaps my use is a little different.
I have a book on the topic which Ill place up details for you here tonight.
Its a Rare book hope you can find it.
Took me a year!


----------



## kid hustlr

tech/a said:


> Sorry really busy at the office--change of Govt!!
> 
> In answer (Briefly) Yes your correct in part.
> I am particularly interested in how each test is carried out in any range.
> The support and resistance Zones (Rather than a set pivot).
> Im working on a method of calculation of volume for the length of each swing to then see if volume is accumulating or distributing within the pattern. This can be done in any timeframe.
> We are trying to make the indicator dynamic so that we can see a sideways pattern and hopefully an indication in price and range which tells a different story.
> 
> Just haven't had the time to do it.
> This is not a new theory but perhaps my use is a little different.
> I have a book on the topic which Ill place up details for you here tonight.
> Its a Rare book hope you can find it.
> Took me a year!




ty duckman!


----------



## CanOz

For Ninjatrader, there is a Priceactionswing indicator that will label the swings with volume if you like...

I cannot attach it here as Ninja indicators cannot be attached on ASF.


----------



## CanOz

These little auctions down on the FTSE have been much more intense than the auctions up...The bracket low has held for now....but for how much longer until we see the market auction towards 6400.

Oh, and yesterday was an inside day closing near the low... If we test current value at 6540 and find sellers I'll be looking for shorts...


----------



## CanOz

To add to my bearish view, which needs to be validated...

The fed induced "pop" up to 6660 seems to have been done on very low volume. How can we expect higher prices if there is no new buyers with the move?

You can see that value is being accepted lower on the weekly VWAP, Monthly, and even now the continuous VWAP has the market back in its value area.

Instead of looking for a break lower, i plan on selling the counter trend rally's. 

Today could be a substantial trend day if open up outside of value, that would take a bearish day in Asia as a catalyst.

charts from top to bottom:

Continuous VWAP 60 minute
Monthly VWAP - 60m
Weekly VWAP - 60m
Channel Chart - 60m

Tech/A, i know you're busy but can add your top down analysis today? And Boggo as well? See if we can get some confluence...


----------



## >Apocalypto<

CanOz said:


> To add to my bearish view, which needs to be validated...
> 
> The fed induced "pop" up to 6660 seems to have been done on very low volume. How can we expect higher prices if there is no new buyers with the move?
> 
> You can see that value is being accepted lower on the weekly VWAP, Monthly, and even now the continuous VWAP has the market back in its value area.
> 
> Instead of looking for a break lower, i plan on selling the counter trend rally's.
> 
> Today could be a substantial trend day if open up outside of value, that would take a bearish day in Asia as a catalyst.
> 
> charts from top to bottom:
> 
> Continuous VWAP 60 minute
> Monthly VWAP - 60m
> Weekly VWAP - 60m
> Channel Chart - 60m
> 
> Tech/A, i know you're busy but can add your top down analysis today? And Boggo as well? See if we can get some confluence...




bloody fancy charts you have there Can_Oz


----------



## kid hustlr

Y/d was the frist day in 7 that the cash close finished above the cash open. We also broke the intermediate trendline in the 60m chart so perhaps there is some bullishness yet. I favour a little bit of churn with perhaps some upwards bias until we then take another leg down.

I really like your analysis Can but I must say sometimes I struggle to understand your charts, there's so many squiggly lines on them its like looking at pixels analysis!


----------



## tech/a

Can

Really interesting analysis on those charts.
I can see why your looking for some opinion.
I would like to go into each chart fairly deeply but don't have time.

I'm seeing most of price trading above the VWAP.
Breakdowns seem to be short lived.
While resistance keeps being tested we must question --- accumulation or distribution at those levels.
Meaning Resistance of Price (Is that enough distribution for long term weakness) or is buying at VWAP support enough accumulation to expect longer term strength.

Supply governs price---in my view far more than demand.
If supply dries up then it is entirely possible for price to break through resistance 
without the aid of higher volume.
In fact Bulkowski makes a strong case for high volume to be a hindrance in a push forward.

In GENERAL terms I agree.
But specifically if volume 
(1) Gaps through resistance
(2) or Ploughs through resistance
then there is from what I've seen a much stronger case for sustainability.

I'm reading it as bullish within the range 6400-6600


----------



## CanOz

kid hustlr said:


> Y/d was the frist day in 7 that the cash close finished above the cash open. We also broke the intermediate trendline in the 60m chart so perhaps there is some bullishness yet. I favour a little bit of churn with perhaps some upwards bias until we then take another leg down.
> 
> I really like your analysis Can but I must say sometimes I struggle to understand your charts, there's so many squiggly lines on them its like looking at pixels analysis!




The VWAPs i use with Market Profile as they illustrate the change in value very graphically. Each of the charts has its own purpose with the ultimate goal of finding strong levels of confluence. When i comes to execution i only use a single session VWAP, the bid/ask balance and a momentum indicator for divergence. 

This is a standard chart set for this style of analysis. I realise that its seems very busy and i hesitate to post them at times. If you have ever used a VWAP you would have seen how accurately they represent the market structure and can provide for great context and some very nice trading plays.

Generally, if we open within the value area, represented by the shaded area of the VWAP, we will have a balanced market unless we have a news event. You trade the extremes of yesterdays value area, until we get through the initial balance period, say 90 minutes from the futures open. 

If the Initial Balance is very narrow then you can look for a break out of the range, where as a wide initial balance area after an open in balance is almost always a balanced day, like yesterday, see the chart.

I agree about the churn, but the inside day and the strong selling on declines, has me thinking we may see some volatility soon.

Who knows, just a heads up.

I only took the one trade yesterday and the trade of the day occurred before i got stopped out on the last contract. It was around the US open so i was hesitant to re-enter as i only usually trade the EU session.


----------



## CanOz

> Really interesting analysis on those charts.
> I can see why your looking for some opinion.





Always interested in the bigger picture and its not presented here very often, that's all...



> I'm reading it as bullish within the range 6400-6600




I agree that seems to be the larger bracket. If we accept that the bracket high was tested, then we could see a test of the lower extremes of the bracket, being around 6400...

You can see from the composite profile on the right, that most of the business was done in the two zones. There is a substantial amount of inventory (positions) at the current area (6560-6520). another reason why i expect that if we move out of the this area we could see some strong short covering or long liquidation, either way.

Perhaps we test 6400 and then rally on to test the highs again....

Today, if we open in the 6558-6510 zone then i'll be looking for a test of yesterdays VWAP at 6540 for responsive sellers or initiative buyers. If we open outside of this range to the downside i'll be looking to sell a test of the Value area lows....

If we open outside the zone to the higher side then i'll look to buy the Value area highs...all depending on seeing responsive participants at those levels of course.

I am a little biased to the downside in the short term until the lower side of the bracket is tested...

Thanks for the replies, lets have some more longer term analysis before the open.


----------



## tech/a

Id like to do some E/W on a FTSE 100 Chart.
Longer term 
Boggo should be able to get to this quicker than I with M/T predictor.
A/GET (my E/W software) will give a more expanded view.
Ill do that tonight.


----------



## CanOz

One more chart then i'll exit stage right...Here's a 240m channel chart....

Larger consolidation here...today is the day, break lower or reject and eventually break higher


----------



## kid hustlr

ta guys.

so Canoz I gather one of the best uses for this structure is to help you develop with whether we could be looking at a range day (I believe you call them brackets?) or a break out day. interesting


----------



## CanOz

kid hustlr said:


> ta guys.
> 
> so Canoz I gather one of the best uses for this structure is to help you develop with whether we could be looking at a range day (I believe you call them brackets?) or a break out day. interesting




Yeah, determining the day type, balance or imbalanced, makes a big difference in trade opportunities. I've lost count how many times I've been caught fading a trend or trying to buy breakouts in a balanced market. The pace of trade also gives a few clues too with range trade around value being slow and choppy.

If price is riding up the outside of the standard deviations after an open outside of value, then its not something I'm going to fade until it tests a prior VWAP (VWAP being the center line of the bands) and finds some responsive selling.

The big confluences are used to find the real key areas where significant buying or selling could occur.


----------



## CanOz

The Pre Cash open was in value, but the cash open looks to be out of value.


----------



## CanOz

We've basically opened up in value as evidenced by the slow choppy trade already...so my plan will be to look for plays around the extremes of value.  Will also wait to see how wide the range is at 90 minutes.

Edit: the Dax just saw the Prior VWAP rejected with some pretty heavy hitting on the bid. We might get a trend day after all...


----------



## CanOz

Although lots of selling on the Dax the FTSE has seen lighter selling pressure so far. Still real choppy slow trade...

I think i'll be taking sim trades off the VWAPs today, this is pretty sleepy action...:headshake


----------



## kid hustlr

Argh, took a long in the ftse based on what I deemed to be a test of supply on the 1m. Got taken out for a small loss, it once again retested the lows on a much better set up and now goes up. I was a little to ansy to get in!

Also think I will stick to the 3min as my major chart tool and look for confluence on the 1m, Agreed with what Pav spoke to me about in that the 1m can produce some noise.

EDIT: part of this is still learning how the market trades and how my ideal set ups evolve, my thoughts and views for this trade were ideal I just need to recognise how they play out a little better. For example in this case I shouldn't have been in a rush to enter.


----------



## CanOz

kid hustlr said:


> Argh, took a long in the ftse based on what I deemed to be a test of supply on the 1m. Got taken out for a small loss, it once again retested the lows on a much better set up and now goes up. I was a little to ansy to get in!
> 
> Also think I will stick to the 3min as my major chart tool and look for confluence on the 1m, Agreed with what Pav spoke to me about in that the 1m can produce some noise.
> 
> EDIT: part of this is still learning how the market trades and how my ideal set ups evolve, my thoughts and views for this trade were ideal I just need to recognise how they play out a little better. For example in this case I shouldn't have been in a rush to enter.





I can't recall a period where the trade was so slow though, seems like is just no interest either way really...

I mean usually the Dax in September is pretty active...this is like summer again....


----------



## Boggo

tech/a said:


> *Boggo should be able to get to this quicker than I with M/T predictor.*A/GET (my E/W software) will give a more expanded view.
> Ill do that tonight.




Sorry tech/a, away from my charting computer until tomorrow (Thur) arvo, can post any suggestions then if it's still of value.


----------



## kid hustlr

CanOz said:


> I can't recall a period where the trade was so slow though, seems like is just no interest either way really...
> 
> I mean usually the Dax in September is pretty active...this is like summer again....




Something woke them up just then!


----------



## CanOz

6540 is the prior VWAP, looks like 6536 is now value, its done the majority of todays volume. Thats changed the bearish picture for now...


----------



## pavilion103

I liked the setup @15 near todays low and previous resistance.

Possibly the start of a push up in the coming days? Good low risk area for a position trade if it begins to push back up to resistance?


----------



## CanOz

pavilion103 said:


> I liked the setup @15 near todays low and previous resistance.
> 
> Possibly the start of a push up in the coming days? Good low risk area for a position trade if it begins to push back up to resistance?




wow, this market is on drugs today...lol

We're now one timing in the other direction as shorts bail out...


----------



## CanOz

The way this is going we may have another new value area today, that's three ...if we could push through the 6572 then we could really see some shorts running for the door...

- - - Updated - - -



6559 has now done the majority of volume today...unreal. I've only seen this happen once or twice in that last 18 months.


----------



## pavilion103

What exactly have you only seen once or twice?


----------



## CanOz

pavilion103 said:


> What exactly have you only seen once or twice?




the volume being done at three distinct levels...the open, the low and the high so far...

Its like a huge shift in sentiment.


----------



## kid hustlr

pavilion103 said:


> I liked the setup @15 near todays low and previous resistance.




Do you mean as per the line shown on the chart? This is one I see a bit and seems to work pretty well.


----------



## tech/a

After having another look at the monthly I don't think a lot has changed.
I think we are just seeing testing of the long term resistance levels.
The swings in this pattern are 50% from zero!!




I still expect to see 6850-7000 tested.
To me while there is some "Puff left and i think it will be persistent
the position trade is short---eventually.


----------



## CanOz

The euro has been on a one way street for the last four hours as well...


----------



## CanOz

Here are the trade i should have taken, but these are on sim as i was not game to fade that last move...I think there could be a long opportunity off the VWAP again when it retests it...


----------



## CanOz

Here is a bar by bar look at that last top on the FTSE...All that selling and it refused to move, had me thinking if it went higher the shorts would tripping over themselves to get out....good for the journal.


----------



## pavilion103

kid hustlr said:


> Do you mean as per the line shown on the chart? This is one I see a bit and seems to work pretty well.  <img src="https://www.aussiestockforums.com/forums/attachment.php?attachmentid=54531"/>




That's right. 
Similar to what I was looking for for that first long setup before it broke below, remember.


----------



## CanOz

Another range day for the FTSE and the DAX?

I've got the FTSE bracket at 6571/6562 to 6496.5

If we open up in balance 6510 - 6536 will look to fade these areas...

Looks like allot of short inventory at the moment on the TPOs, so be prepared for a short covering rally if we look above the bracket and find buyers....


----------



## kid hustlr

I don't really have a bias. Watching 6500 on the downside and 6560 or so on the upside

data @ 6.30 as well from memory.


----------



## CanOz

Pre cash open on the DAX is out of Yest value area, the FTSE is in yest value area...FWIW


----------



## CanOz

Another range day into an uncertain weekend?

Heres the news....


----------



## skc

CanOz said:


> Another range day into an uncertain weekend?
> 
> Heres the news....




I think there also a pretty bloated schedule of various Fed FOMC members speaking over the weekend.

http://www.forexfactory.com/calendar.php?

And the Chineses go on holiday for a week, as you would know.


----------



## CanOz

skc said:


> I think there also a pretty bloated schedule of various Fed FOMC members speaking over the weekend.
> 
> http://www.forexfactory.com/calendar.php?
> 
> And the Chineses go on holiday for a week, as you would know.




Yup, National Holiday... People everywhere....


----------



## CanOz

Here is a simple chart of the DAX and FTSE showing the range and value areas...the extremes are where i'll look to trade today if we open in the value area, which appears to to be the case again...


----------



## CanOz

CanOz said:


> One more chart then i'll exit stage right...Here's a 240m channel chart....
> 
> Larger consolidation here...today is the day, break lower or reject and eventually break higher




Some confluence here between the extensions and the anchored VWAP (Midas) for target areas...


----------



## CanOz

An interesting look at the Dax's bracket work these past 5 or 6 sessions....value up, value down, value up...


----------



## havaiana

I was trying to find some examples of patterns I trade for a couple of people to post as examples. Was an interesting exercise as I started to realise I don't have any TA type patterns I trade and the ones I thought I used I'm just as likely to be trading against them as I am with them. The trades themselves are also useless to post because without the context of the day and the moment as it was happening I couldn't even say why I did or didn't take a trade.

Anyway, there is no point me repeating things that have been said before so will just quote one of my favourite posts. This is for me, the best written and shortest general message about short term non-Technical Analysis pattern trading:

Brett Steenbarger
_"Imagine the market affected by two relatively independent vectors. One vector describes directionality: the "trendiness" of the market. The other vector describes volatility: the degree to which markets vary around a central price.

The first vector describes the degree to which market participants are reassessing value in the auction marketplace.

The second vector is closely connected to volume and reflects who is currently active in the marketplace.

Both vectors are distributed in a non-stationary way through the trading day. That is, measures of trendiness and volatility exhibit different means and standard deviations through the day.

Early identification of when the vectors shift their means and standard deviations is important in recognizing the beginning and ending of trading ranges and market trends.

Many trading problems occur because traders trade the vectors as if they are stationary: they automatically assume that past levels of direction and volatility will be accurate estimates of future direction and volatility.

In other words, markets change their behavior faster than people can change their minds."_


----------



## CanOz

lol...well done Hav...Not sure you'll get many responses on that one.

For me all the homework and analysis is for context, the IF-THEN, and most of all trade location. All i want is a place where i can risk as little as possible when i'm wrong and a decent move if i'm right. 

My playbook has evolved from little stops runs to plays that take longer to develop but can have a higher reward.


----------



## havaiana

CanOz said:


> ... My playbook has evolved from little stops runs to plays that take longer to develop but can have a higher reward.




Same here



CanOz said:


> For me all the homework and analysis is for context...




The context is by far the weakest part of my game and the part I'm having a lot of trouble moving forward with beyond the basics. I actually think I probably fail at identifying what type of day it will be more often than not


----------



## CanOz

havaiana said:


> The context is by far the weakest part of my game and the part I'm having a lot of trouble moving forward with beyond the basics. I actually think I probably fail at identifying what type of day it will be more often than not




We could have a whole thread on this i reckon...its ummm important, understated most times even...

I reckon allot of guys read it off the pace of trade, the order flow...you can a tell a slow range bound day. But there is something to be gained from thinking in terms of value and the auction process, who is trapped where?...  as well as was there an open drive and of course whats the news or lack of?....

Actually I'm very curious what a guy like TH does for a couple of things:

1.) weekly homework - broader market 

2.) daily context - plan


----------



## havaiana

CanOz said:


> ...
> Actually I'm very curious what a guy like TH does for a couple of things:
> ...




Me too! I think that it is the implicit learning he talks about though so, not something he could write in a post, maybe just a whole lot of experience

This is a post from TH a long while back:

"A bit of context is all you needed yesterday. Everything (FX, commods, equity) was green and taking out recent highs. In that type of market its a matter of buying pull backs and hanging on. Top down trading fundamentals on a short term trading are much under utilised, especially in regards to short term analysis application. IMO."

And another from TH

"You need to work on implicit knowledge to become a good fulltime futures trader. Daily traders mostly hunt trends/breakouts/bigger moves etc, I think you would agree?They turn up and trade when it suits their style of application or scan for setups that suit. As a generalisation.When you're trading indexes intraday the market from day to day and hour to hour changes dramatically. Therefore so to should your tactics need to change. One hour/day/week your a scalper the next hour/day/week your a big dick intraday position trader holding till the close. Recognising the constant change IMO is the skill needed for a fulltime short term trader.Granted this happens on all time frames but intraday traders have to recognise this in very compressed time frames or run the risk of getting chopped to bits on every move. I would guess if you needed a heap of indicators to tell you this you haven't the implicit knowledge I'm talking about."


----------



## CanOz

Yeah, i mean what kind of indicator is going to tell you how to trade that day.... Yet many, me included, would come into a trend day looking to fade highs/lows and getting reamed out in the process, or buying false breakouts on a balance day and wondering why there is no follow thru...

But the market tells you so much when it opens (around the globe too as he says), and when the trade starts, if things are a bargain they're moving quickly, the pace of trade is fast as price tries to discover value. When markets open in balance the trade can be slow and choppy until it gets to the extremes of value and gets more participants attention by advertising price at a better price...That's my take on it, but i'm a fan of Auction Market Theory and one of the few on this site. That's why i don't post much on the topic. Everyone's into flags and triangles...

TH has some gems on here...He's got enough little paragraphs to start an ebook...i told him i was going to put a PDF together of his stuff one day!


----------



## havaiana

I've only looked at the basics of auction market theory, will give it another look

One more TH post on this topic for the ebook:

"Trading and certainly intraday cannot be done without context. Where are we in the daily trend, in relation to yesterday, in relation to overnight, is there a 5 day pattern playing out, what did OS markets do, what is moving in commodities and FX. On and on.
What patterns have you seen and are trying to profit from when they repeat? The idea that some made up data is going to relate to the real market feel is well - laughable!
What are the underlying stocks attached to the index doing? Whats the A/D look like. Oh thats right there is no underlying market, its pretend data!!"

My trading notes have been reduced down to a heap of posts from TH and that one post from Steenbarger I posted before. A TH ebook would be something i would love to have but also something i would rather not exist to be honest


----------



## CanOz

I think TH has a natural feel for AMT, he doesn't need to study it, he doesn't need market profiles...he has a sense of it because he knows his market so well.

A good example of how context helps is the NK this morning...It gapped down and then tested the bottom of the longer term bracket and found buyers. Shorts are now trapped, and covering as the gap tries to fill....

Also an example of one of those days you don't want to fade! This trade is on a simulated account.


----------



## avion

havaiana said:


> A TH ebook would be something i would love to have but also something i would rather not exist to be honest




Why not Havaiana? Finding good first hand knowledge is such a hard task in the trading world so why not be grateful that there are guys like TH happy to share theirs. I am sure there are hundreds of guys like him out there but most choose not to share their experience.


----------



## kid hustlr

avion said:


> Why not Havaiana? Finding good first hand knowledge is such a hard task in the trading world so why not be grateful that there are guys like TH happy to share theirs. I am sure there are hundreds of guys like him out there but most choose not to share their experience.




I'm guessing he means the knowledge is so good and so applicable that he doesn't want every man and his dog knowing it


----------



## skc

Context: Don't forget it's quarter end to a pretty solid quarter in various markets.

What does it mean? :dunno: Go ask a futures trader...


----------



## avion

kid hustlr said:


> I'm guessing he means the knowledge is so good and so applicable that he doesn't want every man and his dog knowing it




I figured that may be what he meant but with all the knowledge from him or anyone else, it takes a lot more to be a good trader. TH was kind enough to point the way but there is a lot more he will not tell anyone. I doubt there would be huge crowds of people being able to replicate his style and/or profitability (me being one of them), hence that's when the *real work starts* and he knows it. That is the reason i suspect he is willing to share his 'pointers' because he knows the fact of becoming a real trader is a much bigger task. So really no reason not the share the 'Th ebook'. 
It does save you a year or two worth of research so let other would be traders enjoy it. (disclaimer: there is no ebook published guys, just snippets scattered around on the forum, so you will have to digg )


----------



## CanOz

Well the FTSE is looking at an open around 6420, there is allot of short inventory already so I'd be on the lookout for a short covering rally if we cannot find more sellers on the down side...

Assuming the FESX and the FDAX gap down, they have a prior gap each that we can use as a reference. They haven't seen new shorts as the FTSE has, they've stayed in their brackets....

Going to be an interesting day, with  high probability that we will open outside of balance on every EU market. Will update when the first orders hit the book...


----------



## havaiana

kid hustlr said:


> I'm guessing he means the knowledge is so good and so applicable that he doesn't want every man and his dog knowing it




Yep, this. It's a zero sum game and we are all competitors at the end of the day. I don't see it as too much of a concern because i think frankly most people aren't prepared to do the work anyway and people will still end up trading differently. But I think the info is there for anyone who wants to do the work to find it rather than have it handed to them. I mean how many people have actually done the stuff he told us like trading thousands of hours on sim with the time on x10, I would guess there are a few here but a very small %.



avion said:


> ... TH was kind enough to point the way but there is a lot more he will not tell anyone. I doubt there would be huge crowds of people being able to replicate his style and/or profitability (me being one of them), hence that's when the *real work starts* and he knows it. That is the reason i suspect he is willing to share his 'pointers' because he knows the fact of becoming a real trader is a much bigger task. So really no reason not the share the 'Th ebook'.
> It does save you a year or two worth of research so let other would be traders enjoy it. (disclaimer: there is no ebook published guys, just snippets scattered around on the forum, so you will have to digg )




I could be wrong here, maybe he will chime in, but I reckon he has literally given out all the info it is possible to give other than a significant sample of his actual trades or letting us sit behind and watch while he trades. There are posts where he literally outlines exact plays, charts where he marks entries/exits etc. I don't think he is keeping any secrets


----------



## havaiana

skc said:


> Context: Don't forget it's quarter end to a pretty solid quarter in various markets.
> 
> What does it mean? :dunno: Go ask a futures trader...




While skc is here and i'm talking about the hard work bit, the stock pairs thread is a perfect example of this. If you read it from the start, you have all these people trying to work out the secret settings of the software to make their trades 100% right or trying to find out the secret to skc's success. He kept telling them the whole way along that he is actually doing work to find out about the companies to know fundamentally if the particular pair SHOULD work or if there are any other risks, things you can't get from the software. Barely anyone listened, he gave them the info and they all (most) seemed to ignore any advice which required actual work and decision making.


----------



## skc

havaiana said:


> While skc is here and i'm talking about the hard work bit, the stock pairs thread is a perfect example of this. If you read it from the start, you have all these people trying to work out the secret settings of the software to make their trades 100% right or trying to find out the secret to skc's success. He kept telling them the whole way along that he is actually doing work to find out about the companies to know fundamentally if the particular pair SHOULD work or if there are any other risks, things you can't get from the software. Barely anyone listened, he gave them the info and they all (most) seemed to ignore any advice which required actual work and decision making.




You can lead a horse to the water, but you can't make it drink (or something like that).

A few people did appreciate the effort required and in such cases they don't need to keep asking questions - they go away and do the work... and further posts in the thread became more enjoyable exchanges as opposed to a personal Q&A which has me sounded like a broken record.

While TH has got plenty of gems here on the forum... it will be the selected few who actually make use of them.


----------



## CanOz

havaiana said:


> Barely anyone listened, he gave them the info and they all (most) seemed to ignore any advice which required actual work and decision making.




Yup, that was a classic...agree

Its the beginners cycle thing though, you're looking for the silver bullet. The search, endless use of indicators, instruments, time frames, systematic, discretionary...

The Holy Grail is between your ears but you need your eyes for the screen time it takes to learn your markets and your plays...Thats work, no quick buck in that.

Even if TH did give his trading plan out in an instructional video series, PDF, PPT etc...it would end up like everyone else's, some would try and use it then toss it away once they had their first bad day week month...


----------



## CanOz

I found the FTSE prior GAP, the bottom of the GAP is 6405.


----------



## CanOz

Looks like a pretty tight initial balance so far...


----------



## cynic

Yay! I just got something that I've been yearning for for over 4 years now! 
It's been so long that I've been waiting and now my patience has finally paid off!

Yep, you guessed it! I got my first rinky didge, fair dinkum telephonic margin call in years!

I got a margin call, I got a margin call!

I'm now happier than a cynic embroiled in an internet forum spat!


----------



## kid hustlr

This is horrible right now. I wasn't expecting too many fireworks until we revved up into the US session but theres just nothing doing right now, last hour has been horrible


----------



## CanOz

kid hustlr said:


> This is horrible right now. I wasn't expecting too many fireworks until we revved up into the US session but theres just nothing doing right now, last hour has been horrible




Yeah, the DAX and the FESX are stuck in value...chop chop...


----------



## CanOz

I guess this is good information though, obviously there is not allot of imbalanced inventory on the two European markets, where there seems to be a bit of short covering on the FTSE...


----------



## CanOz

cynic said:


> Yay! I just got something that I've been yearning for for over 4 years now!
> It's been so long that I've been waiting and now my patience has finally paid off!
> 
> Yep, you guessed it! I got my first rinky didge, fair dinkum telephonic margin call in years!
> 
> I got a margin call, I got a margin call!
> 
> I'm now happier than a cynic embroiled in an internet forum spat!




Pesky Dax again?


----------



## cynic

CanOz said:


> Pesky Dax again?




No surprisingly! It was the FTSE this time! It tried to FTSE my goose! Open P&L dropped approximately 50%!!!

But Gary was so very nice to me when he called from his office in London, so I was more than happy to accede to his request for additional funds.

As for the DAX, it mustn't be feeling well lately,I've been in profit for most of the past fortnight! Maybe I should send it a "Get Well Soon" Card, because I do so miss the stress of watching my Euros evaporate!


----------



## CanOz

cynic said:


> No surprisingly! It was the FTSE this time! It tried to FTSE my goose! Open P&L dropped approximately 50%!!!
> 
> But Gary was so very nice to me when he called from his office in London, so I was more than happy to accede to his request for additional funds.
> 
> As for the DAX, it mustn't be feeling well lately,I've been in profit for most of the past fortnight! Maybe I should send it a "Get Well Soon" Card, because I do so miss the stress of watching my Euros evaporate!




This chop is killing my managed futures account!


----------



## cynic

CanOz said:


> This chop is killing my managed futures account!




I'm sorry to hear that Can, it's odd how managed accounts never seem to deliver on the promises made by their title!


----------



## cynic

kid hustlr said:


> This is horrible right now. I wasn't expecting too many fireworks until we revved up into the US session but theres just nothing doing right now, last hour has been horrible



 Sorry kid, the fireworks all went off over the weekend. 
Perhaps if we were to invite a few more of the fundamentally inclined investors onto this thread, we'll be able to liven things up a bit!
(Those recent participants in the TGA and CAB threads will, no doubt, get my drift.)


----------



## Boggo

cynic said:


> Perhaps if we were to invite a few more of the fundamentally inclined investors onto this thread, we'll be able to liven things up a bit!




Yeah, what could go wrong


----------



## cynic

Boggo said:


> Yeah, what could go wrong




+1
We're always visiting them, so here's hoping that they'll soon return the favour.


----------



## burglar

cynic said:


> Sorry kid, the fireworks all went off over the weekend ...




While they were still in the box!



cynic said:


> ... (Those recent participants in the TGA and CAB threads will, no doubt, get my drift.)




I don't think they will see this post?!


----------



## craft

burglar said:


> While they were still in the box!
> 
> 
> 
> I don't think they will see this post?!





Will see the post 

However never have any intention of mindlessly and deceptively derailing discussion.

Actually have no intention of ever posting on ASF again.


----------



## cynic

burglar said:


> While they were still in the box!




Certainly was quite a sight! (I fear that a couple of members may have been standing a little too close to that box at the time.)




> I don't think they will see this post?!




Maybe we need to put the invite in another thread then (the Squirrels thread perhaps?) or have they placed some of us on ignore already?

Anyway I digress "Back to the Future(s)!"


----------



## burglar

craft said:


> ... However never have any intention of mindlessly and deceptively derailing discussion ...




Not what I would have called a discussion ... more what I'd call a bun fight!



craft said:


> ... Actually have no intention of ever posting on ASF again.




I hope your joshing ... I enjoy you posts!


----------



## cynic

craft said:


> Will see the post
> 
> However never have any intention of mindlessly and deceptively derailing discussion.
> 
> Actually have no intention of ever posting on ASF again.



I know that I was excessive in my response to one member in particular, and I can understand that some members have objection to that. However, I'll have sincere regrets if any choose to leave on that account, and whilst I had my reasons for choosing to post in that manner, I am willing to apologise to any whom took particular offense to the excessive nature of that post.

Either way, thank you for your willingness to pop your head into this thread.

- - - Updated - - -



burglar said:


> Not what I would have called a discussion ... more what I'd call a bun fight!
> 
> 
> 
> I hope your joshing ... I enjoy you posts!




+1 &  +1


----------



## cynic

Anyway, 1700GBP later! (1100GBP torn from my Goose and a 600GBP dent in my Grail) and I'm still happy because I got a MARGIN CALL!!!!

Hooray!!!!!


----------



## kid hustlr

Broke through that little consolidation patch in the FTSE then someone gave a nice sweep, must of swept it 6 point atleast. Lots of volume coming in now so will be interested to see how it reacts.

Longer term picture I think today is a pretty interesting day, volume has been up the last couple of days so some serious business is getting done at these levels.


----------



## kid hustlr

Long based on the stopping volume. Tech I know you would have taken this one with me.


----------



## CanOz

Short with a stop back inside the opening range...

As an edit, the risk/reward is not as good on an open range break and retest when the market has already dropped 3/4 of its normal daily range...

The best ones are a tight range break and retest, when it has a better chance of maxing out the daily range for the reward...


----------



## tech/a

kid hustlr said:


> Long based on the stopping volume. Tech I know you would have taken this one with me.
> 
> View attachment 54666





Yep 
But its struggled since.


----------



## kid hustlr

im pretty bullish here. last three days have been on higher than normal volume.

30th sep we had the high volume small range day. next 2 days have been on high volume both finishing way off the lows. If we get some kind of inside day on weak volume today I think its further reason to look for a long.


----------



## CanOz

Agree that yesterday looked like a nice rejection, nice tight opening range too...


----------



## cynic

cynic said:


> Anyway, 1700GBP later! (1100GBP torn from my Goose and a 600GBP dent in my Grail) and I'm still happy because I got a MARGIN CALL!!!!
> 
> Hooray!!!!!




After being inundated by pm enquiries from a horde of envious posters (that's right! I received a whole pm from a solitary poster, so any accusations of embellishment are entirely unfounded!), I have only this to say about my treasured margin calls. 

My margin calls are MINE and MINE alone! I am unwilling to share them with anyone! So hands off my margin call! Go and get one of your own!


----------



## CanOz

Shaping up like an interesting week on the FTSE and other EU indices...today's selling in Asia means we're looking at a gap open in Europe with allot of longs trapped, so be on the look out for some long liquidation. Hopefully we'll get a pop up and find some sellers....ideally.

FTSE 100 - There is a thin area of rejection from 6317 to 6271 that may see some fast declines if we can test it... The large bracket low of 6379 to 6254 is of interest as well. We still have a gap above the current short term bracket as well at 6449 for reference.

So in summary we have a shorter term bracket, sitting at the bottom of a longer term bracket, these locations can provide some nice trading opportunities.


----------



## CanOz

Nice little decline into the lows of the bracket, slow trade either way...building value near the lows right now, may need to rally as the market feels quite short now...


----------



## CanOz

CanOz said:


> may need to rally as the market feels quite short now...




Short covering rally underway


----------



## CanOz

The FTSE indeed covered shorts into the close of equity trading, then sold off at the end of trade. Looks like an open in value and i'm still waiting for a gap fill. Generally with no US news, and little out of the UK i expect slow trade until we get to the extremes of the short term bracket/long term bracket. Generally i think the market is still quite short, so i suspect the odds for balanced trading will prevail. Fade the extremes...


----------



## havaiana

Holy crap I'm bored. What I would do for some volatility right now, have to keep checking to make sure platform is not frozen


----------



## kid hustlr

Yeah not much going on at the moment. I'm looking for a short set up on the FTSE here


----------



## cynic

havaiana said:


> Holy crap I'm bored. What I would do for some volatility right now, have to keep checking to make sure platform is not frozen



Be careful what you wish for!

Personally, I prefer boring. Boring is so easy to trade!

My grails and geese are finding this quiet patch a welcome relief after being right royally FTSEed by the past week and a half's antics.


----------



## kid hustlr

Found one small winner on the ftse.

done for the night i think.

i look forward to waking up in the morning and seeing that I got out to early.


----------



## kid hustlr

Duckman, interested to get your thoughts on the FTSE when you have a chance. How I see it below:


----------



## kid hustlr

What a difference a day makes. High volume push to the upside leaves us at the top of the trendline. Will be interesting to see what happens tonight


----------



## havaiana

kid hustlr said:


> What a difference a day makes. High volume push to the upside leaves us at the top of the trendline. Will be interesting to see what happens tonight




I would be hoping for a bit more of a retrace to get in before going for the highs further up.

But my guess of what could happen today is not much, then gap up on Monday. I have developed a new strategy where I try to work out the most annoying thing that can happen and then trade for it. The problem is something more annoying usually happens that I didn't account for.


----------



## barney

Not trading the FTSE at the moment, but my take on it for what its worth .....


Looking for the open to take out last weeks high and bring in some late to the party buyers on a false breakout.   Expect a quick squeeze on the late buyers, followed by a strong rally.  If we get the strong rally, I'd be looking at a fade into the close around the Monthly 50% level  .....


----------



## CanOz

Nice call Barney, hope you wagered on that one and it paid for you!

So today we have a few key references that i'll be watching...

6458 for possible rejection, 6450 to test support

Maybe a bracket with value building between 6500 and 6450...

Would like to see some bracketing to provide a few solid reference before a move in either direction, which is likely after two_ trend_ days.

So will look for a retracement back to last sessions POC at 6451.5 and see if we can find responsive buyers. If that fails then we'll look at 6436.

We'll look near the PHOD for buyers/sellers if we head higher but i anticipate a gap down on the open. 

Could be slow Monday...


----------



## kid hustlr

Yeah v nice barney.

Think buyers are in control at the moment, any low volume test on a longer time frame is probably a buying opportunity. Agreed it could be a very quiet Monday so am expecting some form of bracket day.


----------



## kid hustlr

Seen this a couple times over the past few weeks. When the big boys get on the right side of the trade they just put these massive orders on the ladder to hold it in. When they swept it up they just lock it in. Not sure how effective it is but its pretty daunting for anyone looking to open a short.

(not saying they actually want them fwiw)


----------



## CanOz

Spoofing....?


----------



## barney

Yeah thanks Can and Kid ..... My "blueprint" was close the mark in the end .... I traded it on sim for the point of the exercise, but my heart is still in taming the Forex beast!!

Just for the record, my Sim trades based on my analysis ...........

FTSE2   Took an initial long, then a second after an inviting retrace near the weekly highs  ... Put 2 covering sells in at around last weeks weekly highs as anticipated ....

FTSE2a   Two covering sells filled  ..... Put stop losses on the two buys in case of a Fade into the close as anticipated  ....

FTSE2b   Took a punt and closed the buys before the close very late Friday night as the run looked way overdone going into a Friday close (would not have done that on my real account which is actually a sign that I am improving as a trader!! .....  trade is well in profit as I type (correct assumption, but ballz required in real time and potential downside needs to be taken into consideration !!)  .......... 

Market should go higher from here so the trade is now effectively over.


----------



## kid hustlr

gonna be really annoyed if this is another one of those steady grind in one direction days. i find them really hard to trade


----------



## CanOz

kid hustlr said:


> gonna be really annoyed if this is another one of those steady grind in one direction days. i find them really hard to trade




The DAX is super thin, i got some slippage. ticked the high there too...

Asia was pretty miserable this morning, so maybe the same in Europe....are we really going to new highs without this US mess sorted out? hmmm....


----------



## CanOz

I'm at a loss for brokerage only today so i think i'll call it quits until we get to an area where some big boys might come out and play...


----------



## kid hustlr

Yeah good plan Can. FTSE is in a little bit of no mans land, i thought after three big up days there might be some sellers but at this stage the volume is still pretty dire and there doesn't appear to be much interest.


----------



## CanOz

haha, that was a smackdown. run the stops and kill 'em all...

Glad i didn't fall for that one...this time lol...

Think i'll do some study...


----------



## kid hustlr

CanOz said:


> haha, that was a smackdown. run the stops and kill 'em all...
> 
> Glad i didn't fall for that one...this time lol...
> 
> Think i'll do some study...




On what contract?

I got a ripper fill @ 6515.5 then on the FTSE then, exited for a small 5 tick win not long after, perhaps slightly premature? not sure. 

Didn't appear to have the volume to be pushing down and it was a nice reversal bar on the 1m. This thing just doesn't look like it wants to go anywhere right now

Might be me done for now

EDIT:

Quick note to self that I perhaps did exit a little prematurely, could see the sellers coming in the depth but after that quick push higher its not suprising, perhaps should have looked for an exit a little higher towards the top of the range, given my feeling that it was just bounce in between the range for the time being


----------



## pavilion103

First trade for a while. 

In 6528. Stop BE

Currently 6534


----------



## CanOz

kid hustlr said:


> On what contract?




On the DAX...interesting rally this one...must be shorts covering, volume on some of the pushes seems so light...could end up with a poor high here.

I didn't trade this, really hard to get a feel for it. Glad i didn't try and fade it though.

Lets see what happens when the big markets open...


----------



## kid hustlr

I was kind of expecting some volatility in this session given currencies + gov debt markets jumped around a little today. Quietish start at this stage although ftse/dax testing highs now


----------



## kid hustlr

jeez just a really heavy grind higher at the moment. bit of size/volume to this to, no real lapses in volume or thin breaks up, just a juggernaut buy buy buying


----------



## CanOz

Not sure what to make of today, the FTSE is ahead of the DAX (broke out of its bracket)...The DAX is in a bracket...No news today...

Sit on hands and wait for the trade i just cannot pass up i guess...whatever the heck that looks like.


----------



## kid hustlr

CanOz said:


> Not sure what to make of today, the FTSE is ahead of the DAX (broke out of its bracket)...The DAX is in a bracket...No news today...
> 
> Sit on hands and wait for the trade i just cannot pass up i guess...whatever the heck that looks like.




Seeing it the same way. FTSE just seems so bullish with all dips being bought. Will be watching to see how it reacts should it get above 6600

EDIT: big volume straight off the bat and subsequently pushing lower. The fixers might be in


----------



## CanOz

kid hustlr said:


> Seeing it the same way. FTSE just seems so bullish with all dips being bought. Will be watching to see how it reacts should it get above 6600
> 
> EDIT: big volume straight off the bat and subsequently pushing lower. The fixers might be in





ZZZZ.........

Play the extremes i guess....until then i'll just play on my sim account.


----------



## CanOz

I just watched this video with Peter Steidlmayer...basically he says that unless you consider time in your trading then traditional T/A is useless (as is Traditional Market Profile) to trade with and you will not be profitable long term.

*Video is here...*


----------



## payday

CanOz said:


> I just watched this video with Peter Steidlmayer...basically he says that unless you consider time in your trading then traditional T/A is useless (as is Traditional Market Profile) to trade with and you will not be profitable long term.




And I have just returned from the IFTA conference in San Francisco where Richard Arms was saying that time is useless in TA as we don't trade time but price! Hmmm - honestly my thought is whatever works for you then stick to it.


----------



## CanOz

payday said:


> And I have just returned from the IFTA conference in San Francisco where Richard Arms was saying that time is useless in TA as we don't trade time but price! Hmmm -* honestly my thought is whatever works for you then stick to it.*




Yup, couldn't agree more.


----------



## barney

CanOz said:


> I just watched this video with Peter Steidlmayer...basically he says that unless you consider time in your trading then traditional T/A is useless (as is Traditional Market Profile) to trade with and you will not be profitable long term.
> 
> *Video is here...*




Thanks for the link Can,    I picked up a few hints from TH a long while back about the importance of Time in trading. Frank D also bases his analysis around predominantly around time relative to price.  Opened up a whole new world to me personally, but agree, use what works for each individual. Cheers.


----------



## CanOz

Thinking we may get some bracket definition going today...so if we challenge the highs in Europe i'll be looking for some sellers....if we fail there then i suspect we could test the lower end of the bracket where i'll look for buyers to return the market to balance... If we accelerate through then I'll look to buy pullbacks.

If we don't challenge the highs from the open then we could test the prior value area POC at 8832, or the PVWAP at 8836....in fact we could open there...

Not expecting a huge day before the US opens...in fact if the market is still thin  may sit on hands again.


----------



## CanOz

Interesting pre-cash open right on the highs....this is out of balance and may provide for a nice opportunity with an open swing at the cash open.


----------



## kid hustlr

Anyone else have a weird spike on the FTSE? Not sure if its a data glitch or not?


----------



## CanOz

kid hustlr said:


> Anyone else have a weird spike on the FTSE? Not sure if its a data glitch or not?




No, i have nothing unusual...its been grinding up in the pre-cash...


----------



## kid hustlr

CanOz said:


> No, i have nothing unusual...its been grinding up in the pre-cash...




Ta mate. very weird, I;ve got trade as high as 6678 at 11am this morning


----------



## CanOz

kid hustlr said:


> Ta mate. very weird, I;ve got trade as high as 6678 at 11am this morning




Doesn't sound good there, who is the data vendor?


----------



## Boggo

kid hustlr said:


> Ta mate. very weird, I;ve got trade as high as 6678 at 11am this morning




Got that too on DTN.IQ data feed


----------



## CanOz

wow really...IQFeed is supposed to be very good data.


----------



## kid hustlr

Im with CQG.

Obviously you don't take much notice of that but it does make a difference when you are quickly eyeballing the chart.

This is a snoozefest. Every little dip is getting bought up but no one is trying to push it higher. Perhaps its just measured accumulation for now. Either way there's not much doing


----------



## cynic

CanOz said:


> Doesn't sound good there, who is the data vendor?






Boggo said:


> Got that too on DTN.IQ data feed




I got the same with my OTC provider. I haven't checked into their data provider in recent times. Presumably they're taking their feed from a similar source.

I pity the traders that had their shorts stopped out on that out of hours spike! I'm guessing that's what that move was all about!


----------



## CanOz

I'm with CQG as well, but my Euro session does start until 2 PM Perth time, so thats likely why its not show...

yes, in fact if i change to default 24/7 the spike is there...


----------



## CanOz

Seriously, the DAX has not been right for weeks. The volume has dropped right off, making days like this even slower. I reckon I'm going to end up trading only the US markets soon.

I wonder what has caused the decline in volume?


----------



## cynic

CanOz said:


> Seriously, the DAX has not been right for weeks. The volume has dropped right off, making days like this even slower. I reckon I'm going to end up trading only the US markets soon.
> 
> I wonder what has caused the decline in volume?




It's got me puzzled as well. 

It's been allowing my to slowly accumulate small profits without throwing a tantrum!

I may need to follow up on that "Get Well" card with a wreath!


----------



## CanOz

cynic said:


> It's got me puzzled as well.
> 
> It's been allowing my to slowly accumulate small profits without throwing a tantrum!
> 
> I may need to follow up on that "Get Well" card with a wreath!




Well it does make you wonder if there is less volume up in these lofty heights, how is the trend going to continue...

Shorts anyone?


----------



## tech/a

CanOz said:


> Well it does make you wonder if there is less volume up in these lofty heights, how is the trend going to continue...
> 
> Shorts anyone?




Personally feel that the market is well aware that the US "printed money" rescue packages cant go on forever and that some economies are following suit. So the highs are un sustainable.
As indexes go I doubt that constituents in those indexes are being bought as long term holds.
Most seem to be speculating--even across weeks. So Indexes are reflecting that.

This lack of direction will persist.
A difficult time for any trading in the market.

Shorts yes but with frustration.
This shorter term mentality will stick around.
I cant see it altering any time soon.
The only thing leading the market is
*Certain----Un certainty!*


----------



## CanOz

tech/a said:


> Personally feel that the market is well aware that the US "printed money" rescue packages cant go on forever and that some economies are following suit. So the highs are un sustainable.
> As indexes go I doubt that constituents in those indexes are being bought as long term holds.
> Most seem to be speculating--even across weeks. So Indexes are reflecting that.
> 
> This lack of direction will persist.
> A difficult time for any trading in the market.
> 
> Shorts yes but with frustration.
> This shorter term mentality will stick around.
> I cant see it altering any time soon.
> The only thing leading the market is
> *Certain----Un certainty!*




The markets i look at, in terms of the futures contracts are really poor in terms of structure at the moment. So that means a quick fall to support is possible. 

In strong trends the value areas (area of the highest volume) are stacked upon each other as value is consistently accepted higher. In this last thrust higher its mostly made up of spikes where price was just vaulted higher into an accented area temporarily until the next big spike. So while the price looks very bullish, in fact there has not been allot of volume in this move (generally speaking) and there are only a few levels for which the market to pause on a retracement. So that's why i expect that any rotation back, whenever it happens will be quite swift.

I realize you understand some market profile so I'll post the difference on a US market for discussion purposes.

I think you might find it interesting.


----------



## kid hustlr

Speaking about the FTSE specifically, the action has been decently bullish the last week or so with every attempt to push it down being bought up with force.

recognising this, we are now at a significant level in the December contract and you would expect some resistance. The volume last night was relatively dismal and I'd be very surprised if it cracked new highs with volumes at this level (as you said canoz).

Definitely taking a short bias with me tonight but as always ill just look for my trade set ups!


----------



## CanOz

I just selected the ES contract as its the big daddy in terms of volume.

You can see in the last leg higher on the first image that the value areas are quite overlapping, its like bracket then trend, with a couple of breakaway gaps. The decline that followed had to navigate back through all those agreed value areas. You can see the value areas were stacked and overlapped.

This last leg higher has seen many longer value areas, thin areas on the profiles where little volume was done, and the last thrust higher has not been as overlapping. Now we are in a bracket.

Now usually as a trend ages the value areas overlap each other more and more. So I'm not saying that this trend is aging, but what i am pointing out at the moment is:

1.) we have started to bracket again at the highs (good opportunity)
2.) if we see a rotation back through the recent value areas it could be a swift rotation to the last solid value area around 1700

A couple of things need to happen before i start getting too bearish though. 

a. We need to see an "excess high", an area where higher prices are rejected. Currently we have poor highs in place, looking like this auction is not finished yet. For an excess high we need to see sellers initiate new positions on the highs in size and volume. Longer time frame participants. This has not happened yet so i still expect the highs to be retested until that happens.

b. We need a significant period of bracketing at the highs before a significant rotation lower can happen IMO

Anyway, I've been watching with keen interest as the volume has dried up on several European indices, as Kid mentions as well. We are at the top of a large channel on the ES daily as well. 

I'd like to see how this current bracket plays out, should be some opportunities here for now, but be alert for a quick test lower before we auction allot higher,


----------



## captain black

Not sure if anyone else here trades the Kospi futures but in case there is, streaming data for the K200 is currently down for those trading with IB. I've reported the issue and they're working on it.

- - - Updated - - -

Back up again, I better get to work


----------



## kid hustlr

Good write up Can.

NFP tonight which could prove to be a catalyst one way or the other. With all these indices at the top of the range and everyone looking to sell it, maybe we get some kind of big false break when the mkt jumps up on the data then they turn it around and push it back all the way through and then some?

Completely agree with can/oz + tech that its only really realistic to talk in shorter time frames ( a few days, weeks at max) at the moment as the mkt just seems so skiddish.

can't wait for tonight!


----------



## CanOz

captain black said:


> Not sure if anyone else here trades the Kospi futures but in case there is, streaming data for the K200 is currently down for those trading with IB. I've reported the issue and they're working on it.
> 
> - - - Updated - - -
> 
> Back up again, I better get to work




Still working with a couple of brokers on this Captain, like to get the K200 and the HSI with a decent data feed on one broker, with all the rest of the markets.

Slow going...

- - - Updated - - -



kid hustlr said:


> NFP tonight which could prove to be a catalyst one way or the other. With all these indices at the top of the range and everyone looking to sell it, maybe we get some kind of big false break when the mkt jumps up on the data then they turn it around and push it back all the way through and then some?




Yeah agree, likely a bracket until the data....i guess this is a good thing too, the market is back to waiting for econo data instead of fiscal political resolutions.


----------



## CanOz

So for the NFP data, 180,000 is the consensus. So anything less than this is bullish and likely to delay the taper?

Anything above this is bearish because the Fed will taper sooner rather than later....

Is this the way everyone is looking to read the reaction to the number now


----------



## kid hustlr

CanOz said:


> So for the NFP data, 180,000 is the consensus. So anything less than this is bullish and likely to delay the taper?
> 
> Anything above this is bearish because the Fed will taper sooner rather than later....
> 
> Is this the way everyone is looking to read the reaction to the number now




In a nutshell yes. 

Wouldn't surprise mf if they just buy the S&P regardless of the data. The thing only seems to move one way


----------



## CanOz

kid hustlr said:


> In a nutshell yes.
> 
> Wouldn't surprise mf if they just buy the S&P regardless of the data. The thing only seems to move one way




Well that's information too, they say strong market ignore all fundamentals....Weak markets react to it.

NFP day, always a great day none the less!


----------



## captain black

CanOz said:


> Still working with a couple of brokers on this Captain, like to get the K200 and the HSI with a decent data feed on one broker, with all the rest of the markets.
> 
> Slow going...




Yeh, it's probably the weak link in my trading at the moment, I'm pretty much reliant on IB to trade the Kospi and it's my bread and butter each week. I've had a look at a couple of Singapore based brokers and NH Futures in South Korea but looking is as far as I've gotten.

Gee, haven't markets been quiet lately. The Kospi has been range bound for the last few days. Today has been better but I've still only fired off 8 trades and only had 10-12 the last couple of days where I normally have 25-30. I'm not into making predictions but something's gotta give soon...


----------



## CanOz

captain black said:


> Yeh, it's probably the weak link in my trading at the moment, I'm pretty much reliant on IB to trade the Kospi and it's my bread and butter each week. I've had a look at a couple of Singapore based brokers and NH Futures in South Korea but looking is as far as I've gotten.
> 
> Gee, haven't markets been quiet lately. The Kospi has been range bound for the last few days. Today has been better but I've still only fired off 8 trades and only had 10-12 the last couple of days where I normally have 25-30. I'm not into making predictions but something's gotta give soon...




I'll certainly let everyone know when we make a breakthrough with brokers Captain.

Yeah, all the markets are quiet too. I guess when you reflect on what has happened so far this year its been pretty dramatic. Now we are back in a bracket at the top and waiting for more info...perhaps.

I guess one of the keys things is to be able to recognize this and scale back the trading, which is what I've done this time, while learning some US markets.

One thing about trading order flow is you can learn to sense the volume and fluidity quite easily. Before, without the volume as a guide i was left wondering what the heck is going on...


----------



## CanOz

We'll i don't think i'll be fading any highs today but i may look to buy into the low side of the recent bracket on the Dax if there's enough other interest there...other than that i think i'll sit on my hands today.....again


----------



## CanOz

Almost time folks, another two hours until NFP!

opcorn:corn:


----------



## CanOz

Anyone want to guess which US Index is NOT at all time highs?


----------



## CanOz

Thats the biggest miss for NFP for a while i think... 148k vs 180k consensus. Lets see how the market digests over the next hour...

All i have to go on lately is mostly overnight high/low for references.


----------



## kid hustlr

so apparently 

this guy

now trades aussie bonds. price action the last few weeks has just been incredibly weird so I actually do believe it


----------



## CanOz

kid hustlr said:


> so apparently
> 
> this guy
> 
> now trades aussie bonds. price action the last few weeks has just been incredibly weird so I actually do believe it




Maybe that was him i saw in the Ferrari in Singapore

He has a fund now. 

Give him a call...


----------



## kid hustlr

somethings going on here, murdered the aud, Nikkei getting creamed, bonds hugely bid.

they might come in and crush the S&P tonight.


----------



## havaiana

kid hustlr said:


> somethings going on here, murdered the aud, Nikkei getting creamed, bonds hugely bid.
> 
> they might come in and crush the S&P tonight.




maybe this?? http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2013-10-22/biggest-china-banks-triple-debt-write-offs-to-brace-for-defaults.html

"China’s biggest banks tripled the amount of bad loans written off in the first half, cleaning up their books ahead of what may be a fresh wave of defaults."


----------



## kid hustlr

havaiana said:


> maybe this?? http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2013-10-22/biggest-china-banks-triple-debt-write-offs-to-brace-for-defaults.html
> 
> "China’s biggest banks tripled the amount of bad loans written off in the first half, cleaning up their books ahead of what may be a fresh wave of defaults."




Yeah that would make sense. Sell FTSE on open?


----------



## havaiana

kid hustlr said:


> Yeah that would make sense. Sell FTSE on open?




I suck at these big fundamental movement days. Usually I have faded before seeing the announcement and hit daily stop, or I try and get in on a little retracement and watch it break back against me me the other way.

Now I usually just stand aside and wait for the move to fizzel out and fade it, or If i have missed that play, wait for a larger retracement.


----------



## kid hustlr

havaiana said:


> I suck at these big fundamental movement days. Usually I have faded before seeing the announcement and hit daily stop, or I try and get in on a little retracement and watch it break back against me me the other way.
> 
> Now I usually just stand aside and wait for the move to fizzel out and fade it, or If i have missed that play, wait for a larger retracement.




me to in the bonds mate. watched it run up for miles just cant get on.


----------



## kid hustlr

how hard is it for this stupid ftse to actually pick a direction. like a 12 point range so far just ridiculous


----------



## CanOz

kid hustlr said:


> how hard is it for this stupid ftse to actually pick a direction. like a 12 point range so far just ridiculous




Yeah, its been a tough week lol....A ton of selling on the DAX buts its not going anywhere...thats why i'm on the lookout for a little rally to close the gap at least. If we do break lower i suspect it will clear out allot of longs trapped.


----------



## CanOz

CanOz said:


> Yeah, its been a tough week lol....A ton of selling on the DAX buts its not going anywhere...thats why i'm on the lookout for a little rally to close the gap at least. If we do break lower i suspect it will clear out allot of longs trapped.




Cancel that, time to step away before i get chopped to bit. 

Same some money for the NQ tonight.


----------



## havaiana

CanOz said:


> Cancel that, time to step away before i get chopped to bit.
> 
> Same some money for the NQ tonight.





US Session is so much better than Europe, it's like the guys with some balls sit down and start making things happen, every night. F our aussie/asian timezone, if I was single I would trade a few hours of US session only.


----------



## CanOz

havaiana said:


> US Session is so much better than Europe, it's like the guys with some balls sit down and start making things happen, every night. F our aussie/asian timezone, if I was single I would trade a few hours of US session only.




I'm still dabbling in the DAX, but totally in the red.

I think i'm done with Asia and Europe. Its just not worth the headache. I can trade live for $5 per tick per contract and trade a real live market, with real volume.


----------



## captain black

havaiana said:


> US Session is so much better than Europe, it's like the guys with some balls sit down and start making things happen, every night. F our aussie/asian timezone, if I was single I would trade a few hours of US session only.




Yeh, my wife quit work about a month ago and seems quite happy for me to trade 24 hours a day to keep her in the lifestyle she wants to become accustomed to....lol


----------



## CanOz

Its not bad from here, 930 open at the moment. It will be 1030 in a couple of weeks though. We're the same time zone as Perth.


----------



## kid hustlr

Was long @ 6664 in the FTSE then. Got taken out @ b/e in on one of best stop sweeps i've seen. watch this go to the moon now.


----------



## CanOz

kid hustlr said:


> Was long @ 6664 in the FTSE then. Got taken out @ b/e in on one of best stop sweeps i've seen. watch this go to the moon now.




Yeah wouldn't surprise me in this liquidity...just horrible in the depth, so thin at times.


----------



## Joules MM1

kid hustlr said:


> watch this go to the moon now.




that's the play to be looking for...

third mouse


----------



## CanOz

Joules MM1 said:


> that's the play to be looking for...
> 
> third mouse




Hey stranger...

I sat and watched the DAX for two hours...just waiting for someone to hit the offers...

Went to prepare some dinner and came back to a 40 point spike off the level i was watching.


----------



## pavilion103

Haven't been back to visit for a while. Haven't been watching the FTSE. 

Hoping to get involved again soon guys!!


----------



## CanOz

pavilion103 said:


> Haven't been back to visit for a while. Haven't been watching the FTSE.
> 
> Hoping to get involved again soon guys!!




I think you and Tech took the volume and volatility with you...


----------



## pavilion103

CanOz said:


> I think you and Tech took the volume and volatility with you...




Hopefully I will bring it back.


----------



## kid hustlr

kid hustlr said:


> Was long @ 6664 in the FTSE then. Got taken out @ b/e in on one of best stop sweeps i've seen. watch this go to the moon now.






CanOz said:


> Yeah wouldn't surprise me in this liquidity...just horrible in the depth, so thin at times.






Joules MM1 said:


> that's the play to be looking for...
> 
> third mouse




Don't understand the the 3rd mouse comment? I do agree these type of bars are a good sign to get long. perhaps I needed to be more patient.

Tech + Pav + Barney + Cave + Can + anyone, do you think I moved my stop to b/e a little quick?? I didn't feel like it was to fast but perhaps I do need to, as t/h says, wear a bit of pain at some stage


----------



## CanOz

kid hustlr said:


> Don't understand the the 3rd mouse comment? I do agree these type of bars are a good sign to get long. perhaps I needed to be more patient.
> 
> Tech + Pav + Barney + Cave + Can + anyone, do you think I moved my stop to b/e a little quick?? I didn't feel like it was to fast but perhaps I do need to, as t/h says, wear a bit of pain at some stage
> 
> View attachment 54934




I know i do, and it hurts. You just have to learn to kiss the risk goodbye...forget about it, count it as a loss for the day or whatever it takes and write it off. That way you can leave the stop alone.

I'm constantly moving mine and when the markets are choppy like lately i end up bleeding from a thousand cuts...


----------



## pavilion103

kid hustlr said:


> Don't understand the the 3rd mouse comment? I do agree these type of bars are a good sign to get long. perhaps I needed to be more patient.  Tech + Pav + Barney + Cave + Can + anyone, do you think I moved my stop to b/e a little quick?? I didn't feel like it was to fast but perhaps I do need to, as t/h says, wear a bit of pain at some stage  <img src="https://www.aussiestockforums.com/forums/attachment.php?attachmentid=54934"/>




Did the right thing IMO. Definitely wide enough to move stop to BE.

If you aren't eliminating the risk then you'll get killed.

My philosophy is get stop to BE ASAP then there is nothing lost. From there trail a bit looser if you like. 

Eliminate risk first!


----------



## CanOz

pavilion103 said:


> My philosophy is get stop to BE ASAP then there is nothing lost. From there trail a bit looser if you like.
> 
> Eliminate risk first!




This is fine if the markets are volatile enough so that the move has enough continuation. But lately the markets have been moving very differently and you end up working for the broker if you move to BE too early.

I had half a dozen last night that went to one tick of my first contracts profit target and then back to take out my BE stop. I had a ton of commissions the time i was done for the night.

Anyway, at the end of the day we're just a bunch of retail traders. There is no longevity in trading this way.

Someone said one time, on this forum or another..."the grey haired old guys in front of the screens in the photos at the Prop shops are the spreaders"... Meaning the outright directional traders don't last long enough to get that old in front of a screen.


----------



## sinner

CanOz said:


> Someone said one time, on this forum or another..."the grey haired old guys in front of the screens in the photos at the Prop shops are the spreaders"... Meaning the outright directional traders don't last long enough to get that old in front of a screen.




Come, join the spot FX market, where every contract is an implicit spread on overnight risk free cash.


----------



## kid hustlr

CanOz said:


> *Anyway, at the end of the day we're just a bunch of retail traders. There is no longevity in trading this way.*
> 
> Someone said one time, on this forum or another..."the grey haired old guys in front of the screens in the photos at the Prop shops are the spreaders"... Meaning the outright directional traders don't last long enough to get that old in front of a screen.




Jeez Can that's pretty somber!!


----------



## pavilion103

Filled the gap on open. Bullish bias here.


----------



## CanOz

Pav, why do you see a GAP fill on the open as bullish?


----------



## pavilion103

CanOz said:


> Pav, why do you see a GAP fill on the open as bullish?




I figured that if it showed a lack of supply around this area it could provide a good long setup. 

Hasn't eventuated that way, so still on the sidelines.


----------



## CanOz

interesting, i can't even bring up my FTSE workspace at the moment, Ninjatrader is giving me issues...

I was acutally looking at the FDAX/FESX spread and when the markets gapped open the spread opened at the top of the range, to me it looked like a piss easy play to short the spread, so i did. Then after my trade was nicely in profit i cut the FESX leg off the spread, leaving me only with the DAX nicely in profit.

I tell ya, starting out with a spread trade is much easier to manage than an outright. Its like driving with a seatbelt on...


----------



## pavilion103

I could definitely use an 'easy' trade at the moment. None of my setups appearing.


----------



## kid hustlr

Fellow chartists + traders, any views on where this market may go? its the aussie 10 year bond future (XT)


----------



## pavilion103

FTSE not stopping yet!


----------



## havaiana

kid hustlr said:


> Fellow chartists + traders, any views on where this market may go? its the aussie 10 year bond future (XT)
> 
> View attachment 55006




I can never bring myself to go long after it has already moved that much, I hate the idea of being one of the last on a move and potentially being one of the worst buyers in a 0-sum game if it reverses on me. I would be looking to short or wait for a big retracement before getting involved. I miss the bigger moves a lot though when the bigger retracement doesn't come.

What do they look like now post FOMC?


----------



## kid hustlr

havaiana said:


> I can never bring myself to go long after it has already moved that much, I hate the idea of being one of the last on a move and potentially being one of the worst buyers in a 0-sum game if it reverses on me. I would be looking to short or wait for a big retracement before getting involved. I miss the bigger moves a lot though when the bigger retracement doesn't come.
> 
> What do they look like now post FOMC?





Yeah agreed hav. I actually was confused by that pattern as it looked like it was bullish, on the daily you can see the big push up  4-5 days ago then it kind of stayed in the top of the range for the next 4-5 days and the down day was on very low volume.

Alternatively when you look at the 60m, it was kind of slowly grinding in the range perhaps edging higher and whilst it was making higher lows, I generally don't associate that type of set up with a high probability of bursting through on the upside. I feel like it will kind of churn, perhaps edging slightly higher until it gets a catalyst one way or the other.

As it turns out the catalyst was FOMC and they have since sold it off hard.

Now im inclined to think it may consolidate here for a bit and then I'll be looking to sell it again.

thoughts/tech, pav ?


----------



## Caveroute

Nobody knows what it will do next – but my thinking would be:

There are several trading ranges on the chart, the last one began on ~23 – just after the big spike. 

Your currently at the bottom of this TR, two attempts to break out i nthe last 4 bars have failed. 

The last 4 bars are consecutive inside bars, the last three being doji’s . 

So, as inertia rules, my take would be the most likely next steps would be to try to go back to the top of the TR, 96.075 or there abouts.

Conversely, as you say we may get a second leg down and if we do the target would be the bottom of the spike that spawned the current TR. 

However, you need to see some more action before you can decide which way it will go. 

I read this morning that FOMC reports tends to rattle the cage, but once things settle then things go back to how they were. No evidence either way for this, just something I read, fwiw.


----------



## CanOz

I bet the spreaders are all over that move...


----------



## pavilion103

Looking at the recent FTSE charts is quite interesting to note the 3 runs recently, up, down up. Each of around 300 (to 400) or so points. 

I also noticed that most of the days in these made higher highs or lower lows almost the whole way. There was not much volatility. 

This really shows me that IF (big if) you were able to identify the trend and look to take an entry only in that direction intra-day, that there was potential to hold these over night and potentially run a nice little move of around 200 points.  

This is one thing that I am beginning to notice. If I trade in intraday in the direction of the overall trend, there is the possibility to potentially get on one of these moves. 

200*$17 = $3,400
Not bad

When you are only risking between 5 and 10 points on entry and moving stops to BE ASAP, then a couple of moves like that increase the expectancy greatly! Not to mention any decent intraday moves of 30-40 points. 

Just some thoughts.......

This type of trading excites me. 

The other thing I love about futures is that profit can simply be multipled by trading more contracts. I know you must build up to this and it doesn't come easy BUT the key point for me is that the potential exists.


----------



## pavilion103

Much more difficult to identify the trend than it is in hindsight of course. 

This most recent one up had 15 days of higher lows. 

Also gets me thinking about the idea of adding contracts. 

1) enter intraday trades in the direction of the trend (once it has been estbalished/identified)
2) move stops to BE asap and let them run. 
3) let them run over night with wideish stops. 
4) Look for another trade in this direction the next day (if it is there). 


This is all very challenging to do in real time. 
But I'm basically putting my thoughts out there because I am excited about the possibilities. 


With patience.......
and enduring the frustration of being stopped many times as BE. 

The trader WILL eventually get on ONE that would make an absolute killing!!!

I look forward to documenting my success in this manner one day (hopefully soon!)


----------



## kid hustlr

pavilion103 said:


> Looking at the recent FTSE charts is quite interesting to note the 3 runs recently, up, down up. Each of around 300 (to 400) or so points.
> 
> I also noticed that most of the days in these made higher highs or lower lows almost the whole way. There was not much volatility.
> 
> This really shows me that IF (big if) you were able to identify the trend and look to take an entry only in that direction intra-day, that there was potential to hold these over night and potentially run a nice little move of around 200 points.
> 
> This is one thing that I am beginning to notice. If I trade in intraday in the direction of the overall trend, there is the possibility to potentially get on one of these moves.
> 
> 200*$17 = $3,400
> Not bad
> 
> When you are only risking between 5 and 10 points on entry and moving stops to BE ASAP, then a couple of moves like that increase the expectancy greatly! Not to mention any decent intraday moves of 30-40 points.
> 
> Just some thoughts.......
> 
> This type of trading excites me.
> 
> The other thing I love about futures is that profit can simply be multipled by trading more contracts. I know you must build up to this and it doesn't come easy BUT the key point for me is that the potential exists.




yeah classic example of understanding how the market is trading. sinner talks about this all the time. the last few months you and tech made a killing because the volatility was up and the ranges were high, lots of momentum type plays available. Lately the vol has been down, heaps of steady grind type days, there no massive volume as the big boys aren't getting involved. I think this type of slow moving, grind type price action is, imo, more suited to the 'find a position and hold it over night'/ swing trading type play. 

my 2c


----------



## pavilion103

Yeh that is exactly right. 

1) Idenfity market behaviour (volume, volatility, trending/ranging etc)

2) Identify the trend (if there is one). 


Adjust trading strategy and objectives based on the above.


----------



## kid hustlr

I just wonder if we are starting to see a slight turning of the tides after the price action over the past several days.




I've got 3 charts there. the first 2 bar charts are the futures daily charts. One is zoomed in to better study the volume whilst the other shows a more longer term picture. The bar chart from yahoo finance is just the cash index.

Interesting to note a slight uptick in volume over the past 3 days which suggest some supply coming into the market. We are also nearing longer term resistance so a pullback of some sort might be expected.

The big reversal several days ago may very well mark a short term high.

I thought the cash index was very interesting. It portrays a slightly different picture to the futures contract. The closes have been much lower on this chart and it, in my opinion, portrays a far bearish picture. In effect what has happened is after the cash close the futures index has been bought up, as a result on the futures contract (which is 24 hour) suggests down thrusts whereas the cash index shows just simply down bars.

Truth be told I'm not sure what to make of this (if anything at all) but I'm going to keep an eye on it, the big boys do there business during the day and if they are selling, I want to be to.

So the plan this week is as always, look for my set ups on an intraday basis whilst recognising the longer term context. I think if we get some form of upthrust/test on weak volume which is quickly sold back down then It's a pretty strong sign to get short. In the past I have been hasty in attempting to find tops and bottoms however so I must remember that whilst some bearish signs are appearing, the momentum is still to the upside until proven otherwise


----------



## pavilion103

My sentiments have changed after the last few days. Not anticipating anything but just thinking the steady run up is not likely in the same way that it has progressed up until now. Will see if it pulls back. Will see how it behaves around the higher volume area. I also sense the change. We'll follow it closely.


----------



## qldfrog

for what my opinion is worth (not much) I tend to agree and foresee a reverse happening toward a short term bearishlate this year early next year.
time will tell.I have also far too often be too early (each way) and so end up loosing...
It is actually good to follow the sheeps however wrong they may be


----------



## tech/a

qldfrog said:


> for what my opinion is worth (not much) I tend to agree and foresee a reverse happening toward a short term bearishlate this year early next year.
> time will tell.I have also far too often be too early (each way) and so end up loosing...
> It is actually good to follow the sheeps however wrong they may be




USA will need to raise it's debit ceiling 
Again in January.
So highly likely that you'll see volatility
If they stop printing get short!
If not stay long.


----------



## pavilion103

Anyone catch this down move on the FTSE. 

I got on in time. Interesting to see how this plays out now. Huge relative volume here on the fall.


----------



## tech/a

Good god its moving!


----------



## pavilion103

Sorry fellas off to do the ironing


----------



## pavilion103

Coming up to some potential resistance at 6690ish. 

Moving stop a little tighter now.


----------



## pavilion103

Near potential support around 6690. 

Wondering if this is stopping volume. Moved stop quite tight as you can see. If it comes up much at all I'm gone, but I'm still in in case somehow it does fall further. 

Considered a profit taking around this low on the red bar that pushed down on lower volume. Thinking a test of the big volume. But would rather the market take me out, even if the stop is very close to the current price.


----------



## pavilion103

OUT - 6701.5

31 points.


----------



## pavilion103

And finally the notes of my trade. This is how I save all my trades, both successful and unsuccessful.


----------



## cynic

pavilion103 said:


> Sorry fellas off to do the ironing
> 
> View attachment 55133




I'm not sure that our plastic currency would survive the heat. Luckily sterling and Euros are still printed on paper, but, I do think that some people take the art of money laundering just a little too far! Put it through the rinse cycle if you wish - but ironing?!!!! Don't the wrinkled notes fetch the same price as the flattened ones?


----------



## pavilion103

Haha maybe a pointless exercise.

It just seems to be a long time between good setups at the moment so gotta find something to do with my time


----------



## pavilion103

Watching the daily chart closely. It will be interesting to see what happens with this period of consolidation occurring. 

I won't be on tonight. I'm hoping to be back on tomorrow night.


----------



## pavilion103

Back on tonight. 

Interesting looking daily chart. 

Interested to see which way this breaks out of the 6680 - 6800 range that we are in.

Potential to get on a little move here before it takes off?
We'll see.


----------



## pavilion103




----------



## pavilion103

Nothing too exciting. My only trade. A short. Only 5 point profit. Nothing to write home about. 




- - - Updated - - -

More an example of limiting risk I guess and reading the market. 

As you can see on the placed orders at the bottom (didn't realise they showed up), I just missed out on an entry I placed to reverse the trade and go long with a 4-5 point risk. 

Original trade = 3.5 point risk.

- - - Updated - - -

Thought I may have been on with that first trade after the long thrust down. Not to be.


----------



## CanOz

Wow, nothing like a surprise interest rate cut to spark things up......


----------



## pavilion103

So disappointed I was I'm bed. Was trying to get on a good short until 9:30pm when I went to bed! 3 trades stopped at BE.

Frustrating! Learning that it happens a lot!


----------



## tech/a

pavilion103 said:


> So disappointed I was I'm bed. Was trying to get on a good short until 9:30pm when I went to bed! 3 trades stopped at BE.
> 
> Frustrating! Learning that it happens a lot!




Brokerage loss only
You live for another day.


----------



## pavilion103

tech/a said:


> Brokerage loss only You live for another day.




Very wise words. Love your wisdom Tech!

Was expecting you to come on and say something similar


----------



## kid hustlr

Would have been hard to hold a short pre the ECB stuff anyway it spiked pretty big when they cut rate @ 11.45.  Could maybe argue you would have found a short really late in the trading session but it would have been a position type trade with a decently wide stop from what I can see.

----

Huge volume huge spike down on the daily now. Tonight will be interesting, if we don't find a bounce then there is a lot of trapped longs and we just need to sell the rallies!


----------



## pavilion103

Yeh. Unfortunately I won't be on tonight. I'll be on Monday and Tuesday.

We identified a potential high. We don't know if it is a big high yet though.

These chances do come around and it's important to be on a position to capitalise. I was in bed this time, not much more I could do other than place a longer term setup with a stop above the recent highs, but I'm not in a position to take that sort of risk!

Kid, all I know is that we are identifying these things, have good risk managements in our trades and not losing. It WILL all click in a big way at some point.


----------



## CanOz

I think we have an excess high in place, a near term top....Speaking specifically of the ES and the DAX.


----------



## pavilion103

Just got home. Not much range on the FTSE thus far. 

If it stays like this it's looking bearish. Will want to get on Monday or Tuesday in case it comes off.


----------



## pavilion103

Holy Heck what just happened....

I was in a short. Got taken out at BE as it shot up then smashed down!!!


----------



## CanOz

pavilion103 said:


> Holy Heck what just happened....
> 
> I was in a short. Got taken out at BE as it shot up then smashed down!!!




Ummm, news Pav. Jobs data out.

Man, one of these days you're gonna get your account reamed out...


----------



## kid hustlr

Yeah might want to watch out for that mate. Need to be aware of the big stuff.

EDIT: As an aside, this is like the second time in the last 3 months where I've seen stops get run to the upside just prior to the figure. The S&P and the FTSE are slight examples of how it jumped but the bond markets show it better, just prior the figure the mkts jump then the number comes and rips to the downside.

I've often wondered about setting stops above below the mkt trying to trade data but its just so risky. Best to sit back I think.


----------



## pavilion103

I must have had up the wrong day for news announcements! 

Maybe I didn't click on the "today" button.

Lucky I escaped.


----------



## cynic

The DAX is back! 

It's just bled my accounts of 3,900 EUROs in a mere three weeks!

Good to see you're still with us DAX!

Now get ready for some serious payback!


----------



## pavilion103

cynic said:


> The DAX is back!  It's just bled my accounts of 3,900 EUROs in a mere three weeks!  Good to see you're still with us DAX!  Now get ready for some serious payback!




Ouch! 

I don't think it's personal for the DAX though lol. I hear he loves making enemies.


----------



## cynic

pavilion103 said:


> Ouch!
> 
> I don't think it's personal for the DAX though lol. I hear he loves making enemies.




Given that three weeks ago those EUROs were all mine,mine MINE, I take it very personally indeed. In fact it's a whole 3900 EUROs worth of personal!

However, I do take your point about the DAX being an EOTT (Equal Opportunity Trader Thwarter) in that it treats all traders' efforts with equal contempt. 

Upon further thought, somebody must have been on the winning side of my losing trades! (Tech/A have you been trading the DAX again? I want my EUROs back!)


----------



## pavilion103

I've posted some of my winners. 
Here is one of my mistakes. 
I've had a silly habit of moving my stops too tight. 

My rule is get to BE ASAP. Then let it run. 
I broke my rule here. 

Identified a good setup. Got to BE ASAP. 
DIDN'T LET IT RUN!!!!!  Lesson learnt (hopefully)


----------



## kid hustlr

Duckman + Pav + others.

Any thoughts here??

done my best to give all the info required, effectively we slammed down hard then ripped back up.

Think any form of re-test now is an ideal long. Thoughts?




edit: srry tech I know u hate candles


----------



## pavilion103

Actually the entry was a little lower I just realised, but same principle. 

I've definitely tried to "experiment" with too many types of setups recently. Fortunately I have become reasonably successful with my risk management and have managed to stop many trades at BE rather than a loss. 

I'd love to gather my overall thoughts on lessons learnt from these past few months and then get feedback on whether people see things the same way. 


Realising that it doesn't take many trades to make a good profit. Trades in low risk areas like the trade above seem to achieve a reasonably high accuracy, and providing the stop isn't moved too soon, have a good reward potential too many times.


----------



## pavilion103

kid hustlr said:


> Duckman + Pav + others.
> 
> Any thoughts here??
> 
> done my best to give all the info required, effectively we slammed down hard then ripped back up.
> 
> Think any form of re-test now is an ideal long. Thoughts?
> 
> View attachment 55230
> 
> 
> edit: srry tech I know u hate candles




Kid, the main difficulty for me is I don't know that market well (at all). So my thoughts are only based on my observation of the FTSE. 

When large stopping volume and support comes in at a previous significant support level, I look for the type of behavour we see in the trade I posted of last night. Price comes down and tests that area on low volume, with bullish bars closing in the top half. I also like a period of small consolidation. And then entry near the support area with a low risk to the initial stop. 
But you already know all this. We discuss it often on Skype. 

In short, if this was the FTSE (and provided the longer term chart confirms a potential support area), then I would in fact look for a lack of supply/testing of that high volume area. I guess it depends how strong you need that confirmation to be, but I think you know roughly what I look for.


----------



## pavilion103

TRADE 1 - Didn't take this one. Took it a bit further down on the channel break. Identified this in real time. Wish I took it. Just missed out. 




TRADE 2 - Took this long. Got out with supply coming in. Happy to take profit on the table. Kid also identified this one and missed the track by 1 tick. Unlucky.


----------



## pavilion103

Something a bit different here. 

Summary of results from the last week and a half. 

I've really learnt the lesson of getting stop to BE and making sure my losing trades/days are very small in comparison to the winners. Doesn't take many decent trades to make a profit when trading like this. 

This could be the last night I'm on before I go to India next Tuesday. I might be on Thursday depending on whether I catch up with a mate or not. If I'm not on, see you guys in 2-3 weeks!


----------



## CanOz

Don't forget your commissions Pav...may not be much but it's a good habit to get into....

Have a good trip, good luck in India....


----------



## pavilion103

CanOz said:


> Don't forget your commissions Pav...may not be much but it's a good habit to get into....  Have a good trip, good luck in India....




Thanks man.

That includes commissions. The total profit/loss at the end of each night commission inclusive.


----------



## kid hustlr

Learned a lot last night Pav.

One quick one, see the marked up chart. Could you go into a little more detail?




What made you so keen to get short in the first pattern and long in the second ( I have my views, just like to hear your thoughts)

EDIT: PM me if you don't want to clog up the thread


----------



## pavilion103

The short at the top that I posted was the original one that I wanted to get in. That was a good one imo. Filled the gap and struggled to push up. 

The short of the channel that I ended up taking was not my preferred opportunity because it was not near a strong resistance level but it provided enough of an opportunity imo because:
1) The bar that made the low before the channel was not on HUGE volume. There was higher volume but it wasn't ultra high. 
2) It then pushed up on incredibly low volume. Really struggled to move higher. 
3) The area that it pushed up near was the low of the first bar of the day (obviosuly large volume). 
4) The bar that it pushed up on into that area (the last bar before shorting) was an upthrust on low volume and signalled no demand to push higher. 
5) It provided a reasonable risk on entry. I think maybe 5 points. 

The negative for me is that it wasn't near major resistance and as pointed out in real timethe area of 6675 provided soe sort of a support, so risk to reward maybe not as high as I would have liked. However I saw 6675 as only a POSSIBLE support. 

If this was taken near a resistance top I would have been very excited about this. 

Make sense?


----------



## kid hustlr

ta mate.


----------



## pavilion103

The long:

Look at the bar which it bottomed out on. The highest volume since the open. Also interesting to note that there are two other wide spread down bars in the background with high volume, which found temporary support/consolidation (and then fell lower). 
Look at the consistent decline in volume in the bars following the big volume down bar which tested this area. I also liked the tight range. That is something I really look for with these supports. A few bars at least in a tight range on low volume. This gives me confidence to take the long. 

If you'd taken your entry anywhere around that 77-79ish area that you wanted to, it would have been an excellent trade IMO. I ended up waiting for the break above at about 80 I think? I considered 78 as I told you last night. 

I just couldn't see it going lower with all that in the background.


----------



## kid hustlr

pavilion103 said:


> The long:
> 
> Look at the bar which it bottomed out on. The highest volume since the open. Also interesting to note that there are two other wide spread down bars in the background with high volume, which found temporary support/consolidation (and then fell lower).
> Look at the consistent decline in volume in the bars following the big volume down bar which tested this area. I also liked the tight range. That is something I really look for with these supports. A few bars at least in a tight range on low volume. This gives me confidence to take the long.
> 
> If you'd taken your entry anywhere around that 77-79ish area that you wanted to, it would have been an excellent trade IMO. I ended up waiting for the break above at about 80 I think? I considered 78 as I told you last night.
> 
> I just couldn't see it going lower with all that in the background.




yeah I mean the long is a slam dunk in hindsight and I can see it clear as day. Same old question with these type of trades is whether we:

1. notice the momentum falling and set a limit order to buy OR
2. wait for confirmation of momentum shifting and then buy stop on the high side. In this case you did the latter.

I think it's case by case basis. one thing though, in your case where you bought the break on the high side, did you set you stop at the low? To me that's like 8 ticks or so which is probably a little to high in my opinion.

If we get a more clear 'retest' then we can buy the break to the highside and set the stop below the re-test, but in this case it just kind of consolidated then ripped up, this was the reason I didnt enter where you did as I was unsure of where my stop would/should be placed.

That make any sense?


----------



## pavilion103

I know what you mean. I guess it depends how good you think the setup is I.e. How unlikely to break back below the low. Also the RR needs to be considered. When it's a major support low (not this one) then the RR is going to be better and it might be worth getting in if you unable to find the 'perfect' setup.
The reason I entered on the break was because it formed a nice little box of a few bars so I had confidence. Entry at 78 is probably best if you can get it. I guess it depends how much confirmation you need.

The other night with my trade it did pull back again on low volume and that's where I got in for a 5 point initial risk. That is my ideal setup long.

I move my stops very quickly until I get it to BE. I don't care if I get taken out. If I do then it means it's pulled back and there is likely another setup available.

Gotta feel comfortable with your personal level of risk. Makes it easier when you've had a winner for the night already, although you don't want to be recklessly complacent!


----------



## pavilion103

Of the two options I prefer the limit order not the buy-stop breakout.

OR

If the bar has pulled back to 73-74 with a high of 77ish THEN I'd enter with a buy-stop at 78ish. This is probably my IDEAL entry. 5-6 point risk with that little bit of extra confirmation.

You could be gutsy and just get in at 73-74 with a 1-2 point risk but I'd need more confirmation in the background as lows can easily be taken out.

The middle option is my preferred. But doesn't mean I won't consider the others if I think it's worth it!


----------



## kid hustlr

pavilion103 said:


> I know what you mean. I guess it depends how good you think the setup is I.e. How unlikely to break back below the low. Also the RR needs to be considered. When it's a major support low (not this one) then the RR is going to be better and it might be worth getting in if you unable to find the 'perfect' setup.
> The reason I entered on the break was because it formed a nice little box of a few bars so I had confidence. Entry at 78 is probably best if you can get it. I guess it depends how much confirmation you need.
> 
> The other night with my trade it did pull back again on low volume and that's where I got in for a 5 point initial risk. That is my ideal setup long.
> 
> I move my stops very quickly until I get it to BE. I don't care if I get taken out. If I do then it means it's pulled back and there is likely another setup available.
> 
> Gotta feel comfortable with your personal level of risk. Makes it easier when you've had a winner for the night already, although you don't want to be recklessly complacent!





Yep, agreed that the more you like the trade the less 'picky' you should be on how the trade sets up.

Last q before I leave you alone (remember your gone for weeks so I gotta cash in now)

where was your intial stop on the entry? see chart.


----------



## kid hustlr

pavilion103 said:


> Of the two options I prefer the limit order not the buy-stop breakout.
> 
> OR
> 
> If the bar has pulled back to 73-74 with a high of 77ish THEN I'd enter with a buy-stop at 78ish.* This is probably my IDEAL entry*. 5-6 point risk with that little bit of extra confirmation.
> 
> You could be gutsy and just get in at 73-74 with a 1-2 point risk but I'd need more confirmation in the background as lows can easily be taken out.
> 
> The middle option is my preferred. But doesn't mean I won't consider the others if I think it's worth it!




Agree completely with all of this. Especially the bold. We think the same way. It's a case by case thing


----------



## pavilion103

Initial stop on the very low.
Moved to that second low very very quickly.
Moved to BE shortly after that.

Could have almost had initial stop at the second low. If it went below that I'd just look for another setup if one presented! I moved the stop there so fast I could have just made that my initial stop. 

Was in to minds at the time. So my answer is no help haha.


----------



## tech/a

short FTSE 6672


----------



## pavilion103

I managed to get on tonight. Stayed home. 
Short 83. Got out 66




2 trades for the night


----------



## pavilion103

My 3rd and final trade was a small loss of 3.5 points. 

Finished up 10.5 points in profit. 

Happy enough with that.


----------



## pavilion103

I'm afraid I was hasty in my exit again! 

It wasn't at a major support. Should have held my nerve!


----------



## tech/a

Shoulda, Woulda, Coulda

A profit is a profit
Minimize risk .
Learn/Finness/improve 
Survive


----------



## pavilion103

tech/a said:


> Shoulda, Woulda, Coulda  A profit is a profit Minimize risk . Learn/Finness/improve Survive




Your inevitable posts after my stupid rants should be enough to deter me by now!!!!


----------



## tech/a

pavilion103 said:


> Your inevitable posts after my stupid rants should be enough to deter me by now!!!!




You miss read my posts
They are encouragement 
Your too hard on yourself.
The most I have lost in 1 trade
Is $7865 when you surpass that
You've earnt your rant!!

But you won't will you!

Have a great trip
Travel ---- that's life!
I envy you.


----------



## tech/a

My exit is a measured move 
My stop is B/E not surprisingly



	

		
			
		

		
	
.

ABC move 1 =  Move 3 well that's the plan.

See you in the morning.


----------



## pavilion103

Nah, I know it's encouragement Tech. 
I appreciate it. I welcome it. 

Some people out there losing money every night and I'm complaining because I'm "only" making 20 or 10 points in a night. 

I think with this one is annoyed me because I identified:
1) The daily chart was bearish and I was looking short. 
2) I decided pre-trade that I wanted to leave my stop widish to enable a good move
3) The target I estimated was around 6625-6630ish area. 

There will be plenty more opportunities. I know. 

Just a little disappointed that there was probably 40-50 points on the table and I didn't execute my predetermined plan. 


But it's ok. 

I will get others like it. 

I will be back


----------



## kid hustlr

Didn't realise you were on last night Pav I woulda jumped on Skype.

I couldn't find a trade last night.

I think the trade to make was the initial short that you took and I'll take that next time. - It's added to the playbook. See chart below.

What I was happy about last night was that I had a good feel as to what was going on. I ha a short bias and after we pushed some 30-35 points there was a couple of possible fade opportunities which I DID NOT take.

The combination of some important data (8.30 & 9.30) as well as the fact that I didn't feel there was enough stopping volume and the fade patterns weren't there led me to stand aside in some spots where I would have attempted a fade in the past.

Charts below highlight the trade I should have taken as well as WHY I didn't take the fade opportunities.

As an aside, did you guys notice a couple of big volume spikes in early trade? there was a couple of 1000 lot trades which went through, it kind of messed up my thinking a little, I assume they were crosses or rolls or something. You can see the big spikes on the 1m chart.


----------



## pavilion103

Yeh I also felt that there was no real good long opportunity so I didn't take any.
Just upset I didn't stick to the game plan and hold.... I nailed the best entry of the night.

At the start of the night my target was the 6625-6630 area. Would have worked very well. 

There was no major support between the top bad that level. Another reason to hold the short.

Kid , keep me accountable on Skype when we are on next time. On Mondays chart I wrote something about keeping a wider stop once at BE even if it means giving up 10 point profit.
Last night I did the exact opposite.
Walked away with 10 points.
Left about 40 on the table.

Not stressing. Happy with 30 points in the last 2 days. But need to observe this tendency and adjust my trading! 

In this case hold because
1) no major support
2) bearish daily chart
3) no genuine reversal bar with strong volume


----------



## kid hustlr

pavilion103 said:


> Yeh I also felt that there was no real good long opportunity so I didn't take any.
> Just upset I didn't stick to the game plan and hold.... I nailed the best entry of the night.
> 
> At the start of the night my target was the 6625-6630 area. Would have worked very well.
> 
> There was no major support between the top bad that level. Another reason to hold the short.
> 
> Kid , keep me accountable on Skype when we are on next time. On Mondays chart I wrote something about keeping a wider stop once at BE even if it means giving up 10 point profit.
> Last night I did the exact opposite.
> Walked away with 10 points.
> Left about 40 on the table.
> 
> Not stressing. Happy with 30 points in the last 2 days. But need to observe this tendency and adjust my trading!
> 
> In this case hold because
> 1) no major support
> 2) bearish daily chart
> 3) no genuine reversal bar with strong volume




Yep agreed. my notes were spot on, I said we were opening at support and if it cracks through then there was some 'clear space' which might produce a move. On another note, I'm learning to take more notice of where the bars are closing. when there's lots of bars closing on the lows, be wary to get long and vica versa. I mean its common sense but it's not something I've put much weight to until now.


----------



## tech/a

I was lucky
Got on late and managed to keep a few ticks out of a stop.
The short play was clear early.
I think the volume spikes were long covers.

*PAV* Just remember that once the trade is going your way you can adjust
you initial stop right up.
To B/E or below or above---

I need my sleep--


----------



## kid hustlr

tech/a said:


> I was lucky
> Got on late and managed to keep a few ticks out of a stop.
> The short play was clear early.
> *I think the volume spikes were long covers.*
> 
> *PAV* Just remember that once the trade is going your way you can adjust
> you initial stop right up.
> To B/E or below or above---
> 
> I need my sleep--




@ bolded:

Don't think so. I saw them in the book, it was just mulling around at a price then all of a sudden the tape showed 1000 lots going through.

nice trading by the way tech


----------



## pavilion103

tech/a said:


> I was lucky Got on late and managed to keep a few ticks out of a stop. The short play was clear early. I think the volume spikes were long covers.  PAV Just remember that once the trade is going your way you can adjust you initial stop right up. To B/E or below or above---  I need my sleep--




The problem is that I'm holding too tightly to 15-20 point profits in a trade. This is an issue when the bigger move is there clear to see.

Next time I should go for a walk haha.

All good!


----------



## CanOz

CanOz said:


> I think we have an excess high in place, a near term top....Speaking specifically of the ES and the DAX.




I think the cats been put amongst the pigeons, with last nights Feds comments we've seen some pretty good rejection...flushing out some shorts along the way. It will be interesting to see if we can accept value and move higher, or reject value here and continue lower....


----------



## pavilion103

Take 2 from last night?

Same setup. 

16 points in profit. 

Stop at BE. 

Do I hold? haha


----------



## pavilion103

Got out after that large bullish down bar on huge volume.


----------



## pavilion103

Yet it keeps moving lower!

Sigh!

Doesn't seem to matter how many times I write it down.....


----------



## pavilion103

I don't care what anyone thinks of me posting this but I am beyond pissed off. One simple instruction to myself. A carbon copy of last night. DAMMIT! 2 great entries in a great place on the daily chart wasted!

So far 70 points from 2 nights gone begging.

ONE SIMPLE INSTRUCTION! LEAVE STOP AT BE. 
I moved it 7 freaking points and lost out on many more.

End rant...


----------



## CanOz

pavilion103 said:


> I don't care what anyone thinks of me posting this but I am beyond pissed off. One simple instruction to myself. A carbon copy of last night. DAMMIT! 2 great entries in a great place on the daily chart wasted!
> 
> So far 70 points from 2 nights gone begging.
> 
> ONE SIMPLE INSTRUCTION! LEAVE STOP AT BE.
> I moved it 7 freaking points and lost out on many more.
> 
> End rant...




This is always an issue....

Either take profit, or trade two or more and leave a runner....all in scale out.

I'm sure Tech just takes his profit?


----------



## pavilion103

I don't mind taking profit. But I set myself strict instructions tonight and still didn't follow them.
My BE stop made sense. I panicked and got out!

It's ok. 

Next time.


----------



## CanOz

pavilion103 said:


> I don't mind taking profit. But I set myself strict instructions tonight and still didn't follow them.
> My BE stop made sense. I panicked and got out!
> 
> It's ok.
> 
> Next time.




Ahh, so you had another trailing stop planned? You wanted to hold O/N? Then what? Trail an EOD stop?


----------



## cynic

tech/a said:


> The most I have lost in 1 trade
> Is $7865 when you surpass that
> You've earnt your rant!!



Yippeee!!! 

That means I've earnt my rant! 

My single worst losing trade was 8,820 EUROs.
(I knew there had to be a silver lining in there somewhere - thanks for pointing it out to me!)

Could this be the beginning of a competition to find the biggest loser?



tech/a said:


> Have a great trip
> Travel ---- that's life!
> I envy you.



+1


----------



## kid hustlr

We should just buy the FTSE at 1am every day. As soon as the USA opens everything turns around and goes bid.

Pav,

In isolation the long set up we took last night was fine.

Contextually I think it was a really bad trade.


----------



## pavilion103

CanOz said:


> Ahh, so you had another trailing stop planned? You wanted to hold O/N? Then what? Trail an EOD stop?




My thoughts CanOz. 

At the start of the past two nights, I identified a high and then entered around 6684 with about 7 point risk with a stop at the top. 

Both nights I identified a target of around the 6630ish area. Overall market conditions (daily chart) were bearish. 

My game plan was that there was potentially 50 points on the table each night, if I get a good entry (which I did), put my stop to BE as soon as I can and then let it run. 


This is how I planned to look at the trades, but didn't follow through with. This is the mindset I want to trade with going forward:

Ongoing analysis of Risk to Reward DURING the trade. 
At the start stop was BE on both with about 40-50 point potential. 
When the trade was 7 points up last night I got out. 
If I had left my stop at BE the risk was 7 points. Reward was probably 35-40 points. 
The downside potential was worth the risk of holding near the high. 
There was no major support down to 6630 either. 
Here, I should still be on notice for bullish signs, but not jump off hastily when one or two arises. 

NOW as this gets closer to 6650, 6640 etc, the RR reverses. 
The downside potential then becomes, say 10 points, with 40 in the bank. 
Now I have 40 to risk and only 10 to gain. 
THIS is when I should tread cautiously and look to exit on signs of bullishness.


----------



## pavilion103

The most important thing for me to identify is:

- Strong support and resistance levels. AND apply the ongoing RR analysis during the trade based on where I am in that range between support and resistance. THEN determine how aggressive I will be with my trade management.  

I will give myself leniancy in that last night was a little different to the night before. 
Wednesday, I simply panicked on the pullback and stupidly exited. The pullback will always come. No need to be scared off. 
Last night, I thought that there genuinely was some support. But I jumped the gun. It was still near a strong high and the percentage play was to let it play out. Had this occurred near a support level, then I should give it the most significance. 
I need to recognise that even in a down-move there will be some bullish activity. 1) wait for more confirmation. 2)If not, hold my nerve. 



The strong positive is that both nights I recognised the entry like clockwork! I saw it forming before my eyes. I got in and got and both times it moved 20 or so points fairly quickly and I got my stop to BE early too. 

Being able to identify these sorts of trades with 40 or 50 point potential and only 5-8 points or risk will allow me to be a very profitable trades (once I get my trade management sorted).

There won't always be this potential but realised
- When the 20 point potential is there, set that as my target
- When the 50 point potential is there, set that as my target. 


SHOULD have been 70-80 points better off this week. 
I'm NOT. 
Live. Learn. Do it better next time!


----------



## kid hustlr

Think you're being harsh on yourself tbh.

If your plan is to find an entry and go for 50 points then do that. enter and walk away.
If your plan is to look for set ups (both entry and exit) and actively trade, then do that.

I guess it depends on what your plan is for each specific trade?

You can't have it both ways though harry hindsight is always right.


----------



## pavilion103

The plan last night was 50 points. As it was the night before. 

I didn't follow through with the plan. 

I allowed myself to get emotional and changed my plan mid-trade. 
I did this despite having done it the night before and berated myself for it. 


A bad trade I can handle. 
Doing 90% of the hard work and then not capitalising - I get more angry about that.


----------



## kid hustlr

pavilion103 said:


> The plan last night was 50 points. As it was the night before.
> 
> I didn't follow through with the plan.
> 
> I allowed myself to get emotional and changed my plan mid-trade.
> I did this despite having done it the night before and berated myself for it.
> 
> 
> A bad trade I can handle.
> Doing 90% of the hard work and then not capitalising - I get more angry about that.




Yep fair enough.

But on Wednesday night when you took your 16 point profit on your short (or whatever it was), if that market had gone bid for and was trading a 100 points higher, would you be cursing yourself for taking the profit?


----------



## pavilion103

kid hustlr said:


> Yep fair enough.
> 
> But on Wednesday night when you took your 16 point profit on your short (or whatever it was), if that market had gone bid for and was trading a 100 points higher, would you be cursing yourself for taking the profit?




See, the reason that I don't see this as a hindsight thing is that I stated it BEFORE both trades. 
I identified the top. Overall market looked bearish. Identified the profit potential. Had a plan. Didn't follow it. 
I had to put myself in a position to capitalise on the POTENTIAL move. 

In answer to your question:
I want to trade in the context of my analysis. 
If I had been taken out at BE both nights then I would be disappointed that it didn't play out as expected, but I would be satisfied that I managed my trade in the context of my analysis and followed my plan and come away with no loss. That happens. It will happen many many times. It's part of trading. I wouldn't be cursing myself for it. I would have done everything right. 

Doing what I did (twice in a row), however, went contrary to my market analysis, my trade analysis, my plan. 
That is when I curse myself!


----------



## pavilion103

I liken the last two nights trading to a painter who has identified the colour he wants, bought the right paint, got the right brushes and rollers, painted the wall, given it a second coat, it looks great - job done and then just needs to let it dry. 

But instead he comes back and starts touching the paint on the wall to see if it has dried and messes up the whole job!



You know, I'm loving this thread. It has almost been like a trading journal of the emotions of futures trading. I don't mind getting emotional AFTER a trade is done. I think it can reaffirm the good, reaffirm the bad and if it leads to strong analysis/contemplation, then hopefully improve trading.


----------



## Joules MM1

pavilion103 said:


> I liken the last two nights trading to a painter who has identified the colour he wants, bought the right paint, got the right brushes and rollers, painted the wall, given it a second coat, it looks great - job done and then just needs to let it dry.
> 
> But instead he comes back and starts touching the paint on the wall to see if it has dried and messes up the whole job!
> 
> 
> 
> You know, I'm loving this thread. It has almost been like a trading journal of the emotions of futures trading. I don't mind getting emotional AFTER a trade is done. I think it can reaffirm the good, reaffirm the bad and if it leads to strong analysis/contemplation, then hopefully improve trading.




ever thought of puting some vids of the sessions....just the crucial periods? camtasia have a low profile freebie easy to run, pop on the headset....you'll be amazed what you see back later espesh when you narrate outloud going into....

suggestion


----------



## pavilion103

Interesting idea. Not at all adverse to that. Sounds good. 
I'll look into it when I'm back from India in a few weeks.


----------



## CanOz

pavilion103 said:


> Interesting idea. Not at all adverse to that. Sounds good.
> I'll look into it when I'm back from India in a few weeks.




Videos are a great idea.

I use BB Flashback as opposed to Camtasia, there is a free version too.

http://www.bbsoftware.co.uk/bbflashback.aspx


----------



## CanOz

Speaking of Videos, i thought most watching this thread would appreciate this from Mike Bellafiore...



Allot of things that TH re-iterates time and time again about performance and improvement are a staple to SMBs success.

The guys that trade full-time, professionally, all talk about the same things. You hear SKC, TH, talk about it as well. Things like sizing up on your best plays, reviewing your performance to find areas of improvement, having a book of plays...

This should be in its own thread for commentary, but lets see what others think. 

I posted it here because i thought Pav, Kid etc. would appreciate it.


----------



## pavilion103

Thanks man. Much appreciated. I will check it out.


----------



## pavilion103

"One Good Trade"

and

"The Playbook" 

look good. I'm thinking of ordering the One Good Trade book online. Could be an interesting read.


----------



## Gringotts Bank

CanOz said:


> Speaking of Videos, i thought most watching this thread would appreciate this from Mike Bellafiore...
> 
> 
> 
> Allot of things that TH re-iterates time and time again about performance and improvement are a staple to SMBs success.
> 
> The guys that trade full-time, professionally, all talk about the same things. You hear SKC, TH, talk about it as well. Things like sizing up on your best plays, reviewing your performance to find areas of improvement, having a book of plays...
> 
> This should be in its own thread for commentary, but lets see what others think.
> 
> I posted it here because i thought Pav, Kid etc. would appreciate it.





Ed Thorpe was all about taking huge positions when the maths told him to, and betting small the rest of the time.  Although that might have been more so in cards than trading.  I'd like to know how people here determine when to size up.

Canoz, maybe move this to its own thread so that more will read it?


----------



## pavilion103

Have been considering that point.
When a number of things point to a high probability move, do I bang on an extra contract to capitalise on these rare high probability opportunities. 

I do like the thought of that.


----------



## tech/a

Lets see.

Everything is tested.
There are soft and hard tests.
(IE Those likely to remain and those likely to be taken out).
If your B/E stop is *below *a test area then don't move it until another is formed.
(Test area). That's one way around your problem.

Another is trade a measured move. Take your profit and be happy with it.
That's your trade---that's what you wanted --- what happens after---who cares.

Widen your timeframes.
Your probably being spooked by noise.

So you need to sit down and watch hard and soft test levels see what happens when tested.
You need to learn how to calculate good measured moves.
Get your entries better---IE at a hard stop level.
I know that this may take a while of watching. Like you I'm impatient to enter--which sees me stopped every now and then when I haven't the time.

When you get back let me know when your on line trading and ill Skype.


----------



## pavilion103

tech/a said:


> Lets see.  Everything is tested. There are soft and hard tests. (IE Those likely to remain and those likely to be taken out). If your B/E stop is below a test area then don't move it until another is formed. (Test area). That's one way around your problem.  Another is trade a measured move. Take your profit and be happy with it. That's your trade---that's what you wanted --- what happens after---who cares.  Widen your timeframes. Your probably being spooked by noise.  So you need to sit down and watch hard and soft test levels see what happens when tested. You need to learn how to calculate good measured moves. Get your entries better---IE at a hard stop level. I know that this may take a while of watching. Like you I'm impatient to enter--which sees me stopped every now and then when I haven't the time.  When you get back let me know when your on line trading and ill Skype.




Sounds good. Keen for the Skype session.

All sounds worth discussing.

The issue with my stops isn't having them taken out by noise. My issue the last 2 days has been moving my BE stop for no logical reason. Both BE stops were outside the high of the pullbacks. I didn't get taken out. I had them in a great place. This is what annoys me about moving them stupidly when my game plan was to not move them.

Will get my thoughts together when I get back and set up a time. Keen to talk a bit more about measured moves too. Something I need to put some work into. Thanks.


----------



## pavilion103

Say last night if it went from 6690 to 6660 then pulled back to 6675, does this mean if be looking at a potential measured move down to 6645 (30 points).


----------



## pavilion103

On that video link. 

Listening at the moment. 

45 min (most of the minute, maybe watch from late 44 min) is exactly what I have been trying to communicate about the reason for my disappointment the last 2 nights. He sums up perfectly what I've been trying to communicate.


----------



## burglar

pavilion103 said:


> ... painted the wall, given it a second coat, it looks great - ...




You just reminded me of the little old lady who changed her mind about the colour.
Not once, but twice. 

Asked why, she said, "It's the only way I know I got 3 coats!"


----------



## kid hustlr

Tech, any chance you have a spare moment?

Several trades from the FTSE last night which have left me a little stumped.

Charts are marked. 

The first trade, is that a slam dunk long once you see the no supply bar? In that context is the initial stopping volume + no supply bar enough to merit a long? At the time I was actually leaning towards a short based on all the upthrust bars. I entered on the 2nd downthrust and scratched it quickly once I saw the no supply.

The second trade was a fade trade I took. Even in hindsight this morning I like the trade yet it turned out to be a loss. Anything I'm missing?


----------



## havaiana

I don't like the second one for the same reason you mention in the first one "the bounce was hardly fierce". Just eyeballing it, the bounce on the first one you watned to trade looks bigger than the bounce on the second one you wanted to fade. I usually view consolidations or short retracements after a move as continuation patterns.

Where you say it felt as if it was rolling over, I would have shorted the highs after the next deeper retracement that came back into the range, So I still would have put on a losing trade, just a little later and higher.


----------



## kid hustlr

Starting to agree with you Hav although I do note that no trade is perfect and I feel like I've taken many worse trades than this which have been profitable.

One thing of note is that the big spike was on volume, but not huge volume and perhaps wasn't enough to suggest stopping volume.

see picture in regards to my thoughts.


----------



## tech/a

In the middle of tenders but will have a look tonight.
I do have some comments relative to the charts shown.
These are really interesting and integral to getting on
winning trades.
The question will it hold or will it go in with it must be answered.
I think I can throw some light on it.


----------



## kid hustlr

tech/a said:


> In the middle of tenders but will have a look tonight.
> I do have some comments relative to the charts shown.
> These are really interesting and integral to getting on
> winning trades.
> The question will it hold or will it go in with it must be answered.
> I think I can throw some light on it.




Thanks tech, I know you are super busy, I always feel bad asking you for help!!

Look forward to your thoughts tonight, these type of trades are just SO common I really need to nail the theory on them.

EDIT: sorry just one more note to myself.

Always be thinking about the context, both short term and long term. the trade at the bottom of the range when I was looking to get short did produce a number of upthrust bars. That being said these upthrust bars were on WEAK VOLUME with BUYING IN THE BACKGROUND.


The same bar pattern near the top of the range would be very bearish.

Further, if those upthrust bars were on HIGHER volume this would encourage a sell. effectively then we have a market which has found initial support but there are still a large amount of sellers pushing the market down.


----------



## Trembling Hand

Kid you would be better trying to stand on your own two feet rather than trying to copy someone else's style that seems to have zero edge outside of a roaring market.

Trying to shoehorn an intraday pattern into some sort of perfect setup or "same as last time this happened" is just another trap on the path of the learners demise. All this message in a bar stuff would be somewhat laughable if it wasn't actually people wasting real effort, time and hope on such rubbish. 

If you cannot spend a few months observing a few markets and every few days have "Aha moments" that you can then go about refining for the rest of your trading career then simply you're looking at the world all wrong - your context is.... to put it bluntly....F#ked and in desperate need of a rethink. (and believe me I've been there!!)


----------



## Joules MM1

Trembling Hand said:


> Kid you would be better trying to stand on your own two feet




y

+1


----------



## tech/a

Trembling Hand said:


> Kid you would be better trying to stand on your own two feet rather than trying to copy* someone else's style that seems to have zero edge outside of a roaring market.*
> Trying to shoehorn an intraday pattern into some sort of perfect setup or "same as last time this happened" is just another trap on the path of the learners demise. All this message in a bar stuff would be somewhat laughable if it wasn't actually people wasting real effort, time and hope on such rubbish.
> 
> If you cannot spend a few months observing a few markets and every few days have "Aha moments" that you can then go about refining for the rest of your trading career then simply you're looking at the world all wrong - your context is.... to put it bluntly....F#ked and in desperate need of a rethink. (and believe me I've been there!!)




Welcome back.

Ill reply tonight if only to amuse T/H.

The question is related to this chart not the exercise.
Ill comment on that in black also tonight.
In the exercise thread.
Don't miss it!
Why do you repeat repeat yourself??


----------



## Caveroute

kid hustlr said:


> Tech, any chance you have a spare moment?
> 
> Several trades from the FTSE last night which have left me a little stumped.
> 
> Charts are marked.
> 
> The first trade, is that a slam dunk long once you see the no supply bar? In that context is the initial stopping volume + no supply bar enough to merit a long? At the time I was actually leaning towards a short based on all the upthrust bars. I entered on the 2nd downthrust and scratched it quickly once I saw the no supply.
> 
> The second trade was a fade trade I took. Even in hindsight this morning I like the trade yet it turned out to be a loss. Anything I'm missing?
> 
> View attachment 55398
> View attachment 55399




My 2 cents –
In the first one you have a trend line break, a higher low [a retest] and a failed first entry short – would have preferred a second entry so it’s aggressive but viable.

In the second one, I can see no reason to go short – at all. Your in a strong bull trend, there has been no trendline break so for me shorting is not an option.


----------



## kid hustlr

Caveroute said:


> My 2 cents –
> In the first one you have a trend line break, a higher low [a retest] and a failed first entry short – would have preferred a second entry so it’s aggressive but viable.
> 
> In the second one, I can see no reason to go short – at all. Your in a strong bull trend, there has been no trendline break so for me shorting is not an option.




yep all good points. You really do learn a lot more from your losing trades!


----------



## tech/a

Trembling Hand said:


> Kid you would be better trying to stand on your own two feet rather than trying to copy *someone else's style that seems to have zero edge outside of a roaring market.*
> 
> Trying to shoehorn an intraday pattern into some sort of perfect setup or "same as last time this happened" is just another trap on the path of the learners demise. All this message in a bar stuff would be somewhat laughable if it wasn't actually people wasting real effort, time and hope on such rubbish.
> 
> If you cannot spend a few months observing a few markets and every few days have "Aha moments" that you can then go about refining for the rest of your trading career then simply you're looking at the world all wrong - your context is.... to put it bluntly....F#ked and in desperate need of a rethink. (and believe me I've been there!!)




In answer to the blue bit go here.
https://www.aussiestockforums.com/forums/showthread.php?t=26799&page=20&p=803248#post803248

As for your question kid

It is/was pretty simple





by the way bottom right of screen is current FTSE Its bullish in my view
Long 6672 stop below that ---

The question is and will be answered soon is will it resist at resistance or take out the low and move lower 
Price action going forward will tell this.
Ill look at it as either one is tested.


----------



## tech/a

Up date




Very weak sold long and reversed--short at 6680
Now looking at 6673 and lower how it reacts.

Off to some R/R
Stop at 81 and buy back stop at 70

Will analyse tomorrow.
Time with missus more valuable----


----------



## kid hustlr

I didn't take the long, saw the reversal on the 3m and whilst I was leaning towards the bull side didn't feel like it was a strong enough signal (no significant stopping volume)

Think its in no mans land now.

appreciate the help tech, once again might be reaching for the trade a little instead of letting them reach me!


----------



## kid hustlr

Trembling Hand said:


> Kid you would be better trying to stand on your own two feet rather than trying to copy someone else's style that seems to have zero edge outside of a roaring market.
> 
> Trying to shoehorn an intraday pattern into some sort of perfect setup or "same as last time this happened" is just another trap on the path of the learners demise. All this message in a bar stuff would be somewhat laughable if it wasn't actually people wasting real effort, time and hope on such rubbish.
> 
> If you cannot spend a few months observing a few markets and every few days have "Aha moments" that you can then go about refining for the rest of your trading career then simply you're looking at the world all wrong - your context is.... to put it bluntly....F#ked and in desperate need of a rethink. (and believe me I've been there!!)




You're making a number of assumptions which are wrong about how I'm going about things. Don't assume that because I post a couple of questions on an internet forum I'm trying to be a carbon copy of trader xyz. A lot of the techniques which tech/a uses (mainly VSA related) I can relate to and understand. That doesn't mean I like every trade he takes.

If for every 10 posts where I get called a 'poor sucker' I get a reply which helps me out even a little - giving me that 'aha' moment, then the time and effort is worth it.



Joules MM1 said:


> y
> 
> +1




Great input.


----------



## Trembling Hand

kid hustlr said:


> You're making a number of assumptions which are wrong about how I'm going about things. Don't assume that because I post a couple of questions on an internet forum I'm trying to be a carbon copy of trader xyz. A lot of the techniques which tech/a uses (mainly VSA related) I can relate to and understand. That doesn't mean I like every trade he takes.




Fair enough. I have actually been keeping up with this thread and the impression I got was that you were struggling to get on top of it. Certainly the bits I got (which clearly is not the whole story) was that your analysis and trade ideas mostly lack context and you are often trying to make something "fit". Something you can see when someone uses a tool that is not original. 

But you are probably going fine so I'll butt out.


----------



## kid hustlr

Trembling Hand said:


> Fair enough. I have actually been keeping up with this thread and the impression I got was that you were struggling to get on top of it. Certainly the bits I got (which clearly is not the whole story) was that your analysis and trade ideas mostly lack context and you are often trying to make something "fit". Something you can see when someone uses a tool that is not original.
> 
> But you are probably going fine so I'll butt out.




There's no point me posting winning trades.

No doubt context is the biggest issue I need to work on. In fact it's probably the same for most traders who are trying to move from break even to profitable. Right now I'm sitting here with 3-4 months (not even) of free education from the FTSE. Not that bad.

No point you butting out if you have a sh*t one on the seng and want to take it out on internet randoms then so be it, just be careful you might drop accidently drop a nugget of knowledge along the way.


----------



## Trembling Hand

kid hustlr said:


> No point you butting out if you have a sh*t one on the seng and want to take it out on internet randoms then so be it, just be careful you might drop accidently drop a nugget of knowledge along the way.




Actually my posting came from smugness in finding trading particularly easy at the moment. I was going to try and share some of the success but alas it seems the path you are on you are happy with.


----------



## kid hustlr

Trembling Hand said:


> Actually my posting came from smugness in finding trading particularly easy at the moment. I was going to try and share some of the success but alas it seems the path you are on you are happy with.




Ongoing internet feuds aren't my thing and I'd be lying if I said I haven't learned things off of you and that I wanted to do really well at this some day. That being said when someone gets my sense of character wrong I'm going to defend myself. 

Congratulations on all of your successes.


----------



## avion

Woooohooooo, TH is back!!! Thanks Tech, he, he...

TH that international markets banter tread is just about dead without you to chime in....

Please tell us what have you been up to during this absentism from forum, just the same old HSI or was there more (more travels, ...getting married perhaps...)


----------



## fiftyeight

I am sure there are no short cuts to trading. I spent some time looking for them with no success. Thankfully this lesson was free as I learnt a lot from this forum. I learnt from others mistakes. 

Can I not keep learning from others mistakes TH? Having an experienced trader critique your trades and guide you through the learning curve will be a lot more efficient than a newbie like me blindly watching hours of NT?


----------



## Trembling Hand

fiftyeight said:


> Can I not keep learning from others mistakes TH? Having an experienced trader critique your trades and guide you through the learning curve will be a lot more efficient than a newbie like me blindly watching hours of NT?




Yeah to some degree and then to only a small initial effect. But nothing beats _knowing _what you want to trade and how. If a discretionary trader that is live doesn't know exactly what you are trying to trade well then you shouldn't be trading with real money and therefore should be straight back onto sim gaining more experience until you do. 

Its really that simple. Keep looking until *you *understand then trade. There is no "way" to trade, no "this guy said this works this way so thats what I do". You will shoehorn rubbish into everything that comes along because you are not reading signals you are trying to fit a square peg into an ever changing shape. IMO.  (thats my six pence


----------



## avion

Trembling Hand said:


> l.... then you shouldn't be trading with real money and therefore should be straight back onto sim gaining more experience until you do.




But part of the learning process is getting punched into your mouth too, the bitter aftertaste and choking feeling after loosing day, finding the strength to recover only to become stronger, ...what a journey!


----------



## kid hustlr

avion said:


> But part of the learning process is getting punched into your mouth too, the bitter aftertaste and choking feeling after loosing day, finding the strength to recover only to become stronger, ...what a journey!




Yeah but perhaps having someone blast you on the internet is their way of trying to save you an expensive lesson


----------



## avion

...in that case ASF is full of saints!


----------



## fiftyeight

avion said:


> But part of the learning process is getting punched into your mouth too, the bitter aftertaste and choking feeling after loosing day, finding the strength to recover only to become stronger, ...what a journey!




I have had enough punches in the face from poker.

I much prefer a "friendly" blast from someone on a forum, does much less damage to the bankroll. 

Still being in the "initial" stage of the learning curve ill take listen to any advice. Ill figure out if it useful later


----------



## tech/a

Bit of FTSE.


----------



## fiftyeight

How much of the move did you to catch Tech?


----------



## tech/a

The second 17 ticks (Was actually 15 ticks) I was too busy typing stuff on ASF!
I've closed long at B/E and Back short again at 6666.


----------



## fiftyeight

Good nights work


----------



## tech/a

Closed 6670

Off to TV.

Sure it will fall to 6640.
 Short at 70 again Stop at 75
and buy stop at 42

Now off to TV
Night


----------



## fiftyeight

Ill keep watching delayed telecast on google finance


----------



## tech/a

tech/a said:


> Closed 6670
> 
> Off to TV.
> 
> Sure it will fall to 6640.
> Short at 70 again Stop at 75
> and buy stop at 42
> 
> Now off to TV
> Night




Good when it all plays out.


----------



## kid hustlr

tech/a said:


> Closed 6670
> 
> Off to TV.
> 
> Sure it will fall to 6640.
> Short at 70 again Stop at 75
> and buy stop at 42
> 
> Now off to TV
> Night




2 break even trades for me. I took the long @ 68.5 looking for some buy stops which didn't prevail. Then upon observation of the upthrust @ 9.30 I went short and end up having it scratched. My feel was pretty good last night, just couldn't get on that initial move!!!


----------



## fiftyeight

Tech, most of the moves you seem to get on are a lot quicker than the on you set before TV.

If you were watching it would you have trusted you initial analysis or closed earlier when it went sideways for a few hours?


----------



## tech/a

fiftyeight said:


> Tech, most of the moves you seem to get on are a lot quicker than the on you set before TV.
> 
> If you were watching it would you have trusted you initial analysis or closed earlier when it went sideways for a few hours?




First hr and last hr are the most volatile normally.

I'm rarely finished work at open and I'm still asleep at close.
If I happen to be home or up Ill trade it.
If I can get a position trade without a great deal of risk then I'll take it.

I've been trading long enough to be able to not think about a move once I've set it up.
Others cant sleep if they have a position trade!!!???

Ill let trades run their course.
But If its clear I'm wrong (like the long retracement play) then ill get out of a low
cost opportunity arises.


----------



## fiftyeight

Cheers for that explanation


----------



## kid hustlr

Not trading just having a peak now.

a lot of weird volume spikes?

also no surprise it gets turned around @ 6660


----------



## kid hustlr

Does anyone know when the BIG players execute the majority of their trades?

I assume it varies, but I'm guessing a lot of the big fund managers/portfolio managers/fund managers execute the majority of their trades on the open and close?

Just thinking out loud a little in regards to my ever going quest to work out who's on the other side of my trades.


----------



## havaiana

kid hustlr said:


> Does anyone know when the BIG players execute the majority of their trades?
> 
> I assume it varies, but I'm guessing a lot of the big fund managers/portfolio managers/fund managers execute the majority of their trades on the open and close?
> 
> Just thinking out loud a little in regards to my ever going quest to work out who's on the other side of my trades.




I reckon they execute any time there is volume. The bigger they are the more volume they need, so obviously market closes/opens etc. But my theory is if they are really big and need to buy for example, they would also use things like the extra volume during bad news to get their fills (which is one of the reasons why the markets often move contrary to announcements.

I don't think monthly (often mean reverting) news announcements will mean that much to a big funds long term idea (most of the time)


----------



## Trembling Hand

kid hustlr said:


> Does anyone know when the BIG players execute the majority of their trades?




All the time, day in, day out.

High volume times and low volume times. What you need to worry about is when are they absorbing moves against them so its easier to trap and push against the suckers, (think Reminiscence of a Stock Operator).

Here is a classic one from the Seng yesty,





Sneaky little b@rst@rds!!


----------



## havaiana

Trembling Hand said:


> All the time, day in, day out.
> 
> High volume times and low volume times. What you need to worry about is when are they absorbing moves against them so its easier to trap and push against the suckers, (think Reminiscence of a Stock Operator)....




When you say '....absorbing moves against them so its easier to trap and push against the suckers'

Does this mean that rather than hide their intentions to avoid having to pay worse prices, they are actually trying to protect their position and bully the market their way?

Or is it something like; build position quietly, than bully once they have their fill?


----------



## kid hustlr

havaiana said:


> I don't think monthly (often mean reverting) news announcements will mean that much to a big funds long term idea (most of the time)




Completely agree that most news items are irrelevant. These guys would spend weeks/months developing a view and undertaking the subsequent accumulation and distribution.

Example below is I think either an FOMC minutes or something FOMC related. Whilst this COULD be a game changer so its not a great example, I think it shows the idea that big funds aren't going to flip there whole book based on some jawboning or a one off announcement. These type of changes are well planned and take time. This spike was just a chance for them to offload. 








Trembling Hand said:


> All the time, day in, day out.
> 
> High volume times and low volume times. What you need to worry about is when are they absorbing moves against them so its easier to trap and *push against the suckers*, (think Reminiscence of a Stock Operator).
> 
> Here is a classic one from the Seng yesty,
> 
> View attachment 55598
> 
> 
> Sneaky little b@rst@rds!!




TH, in regards to the bolded. If I'm a big fund manager and I'm looking to sell a sh!tload of stock, wouldn't I be trying to do it as quietly as possible? If I have a huge line which I need to unwind I don't wan't to get rid of 10% of it then watch the market go 5% against me trying to dump the rest. I don't wan't to trap anyone until I'm done? Or am I looking to closely?


----------



## kid hustlr

Uncanny how similar mine and Hav's questions are

EDIT: Hav wonder if we are just crossing over different players and different time frames. ?


----------



## havaiana

TH or anyone who has an idea how big d*cks trade, I have another kind of related question to this I've always wondered about when i read Reminiscence's . If you were hired by someone to push up the price of x whilst accumulating the least amount of it as possible

Are you buying market on the bottoms and selling tops with limits or
buy bottoms with limits and selling tops at market?

edit: 







kid hustlr said:


> Uncanny how similar mine and Hav's questions are
> 
> EDIT: Hav wonder if we are just crossing over different players and different time frames. ?




I suspect you're right and the answer will be, it depends on the size and what they are trying to achieve


----------



## Trembling Hand

I'll get back to you guys later but there is an interesting game playing out this week on the seng which, i think, will illustrate what I think happens. There has been some nice size short positions built up all week then a positive news ann out of china wipe their weeks work away in 15 min then it gaps higher again yesterday. What happened was a perfect counter attack yesterday arvo but lets see what happens today.


----------



## fiftyeight

Trembling Hand said:


> View attachment 55598
> 
> 
> Sneaky little b@rst@rds!!




So I have not spent enough hours in front of a screen yet and I should be looking for my own patterns, well not patterns but something.

If I can guess maybe what is happening then I can start to look for clues as to when it will happen again.

Somebody big buying just enough for the price to gap, then at the higher levels they sell this new position as well as the original position they wanted sell?


----------



## Trembling Hand

fiftyeight said:


> Somebody big buying just enough for the price to gap, then at the higher levels they sell this new position as well as the original position they wanted sell?




No no no. The real world doesn't work like that. You cannot just move a market up as you please. If that was the case why would they gap against themselves in the first place? Someone has just used someone's strength against them. That is the Longs went in balls and all gaped the open and pushed. The shorts just let them take all there shots by absorbing there buying and when they had ran out of ammo pushed back against them. End result is a cascading sell off.

Same pattern just happened again. Opening push let them get their fill over 45 min then in basically 4 minutes pushed every long off side..... perfect!


----------



## fiftyeight

Hmmm, pretty happy I dont trade yet.

Is that not the reverse of what I said then. The shorts by absorbing on the way up are getting on the wrong side, then selling what they absorbed on the way up plus their initial position?

Haha I think I am confusing myself now. At some stage was somebody going long or short at a worse price than what they wanted to so at a later stage they could unwind an initial position?


----------



## Trembling Hand

Now I'm confused!


----------



## fiftyeight

Welcome to the club.

Was writing something else when I think I figured out my own question, well part of it. Ill ponder on it some more.


----------



## barney

fiftyeight said:


> Hmmm, pretty happy I dont trade yet.
> 
> Is that not the reverse of what I said then. The shorts by absorbing on the way up are getting on the wrong side, then selling what they absorbed on the way up plus their initial position?
> 
> Haha I think I am confusing myself now. At some stage was somebody going long or short at a worse price than what they wanted to so at a later stage they could unwind an initial position?




58,

The Sellers/Shorters doing the absorbing on the way up become the Buyers on the way down. 

Once the Sellers get the market to turn down, the Longs that bought into the gap and higher have to cover their losing positions and therefore become the Sellers .......   Irony in motion


----------



## fiftyeight

Cheers Barney, thats what I was thinking.

If futures are a zero sum game and I assume there would not be enough losing retail investors to generate profit for all the big players, where do they generate profit? If some of the big players consistently profitable then there must be big consistent losers?

I realise different systems and different time scales, but eventually if futures are a zero sum game then there has to be a big loser for there to be a big winner (assuming there are not enough small players)


----------



## havaiana

fiftyeight said:


> Cheers Barney, thats what I was thinking.
> 
> If futures are a zero sum game and I assume there would not be enough losing retail investors to generate profit for all the big players, where do they generate profit? If some of the big players consistently profitable then there must be big consistent losers?
> 
> I realise different systems and different time scales, but eventually if futures are a zero sum game then there has to be a big loser for there to be a big winner (assuming there are not enough small players)




I might be wrong here, but I reckon the biggest losers will be the guys using the futures for what they were originally designed for, the hedgers.

A company can make a hedge on the exchange rate for example, so they don't have to worry about the risk of currency changes/fluctuations on their cost of doing business. The company can effectively lock in the exchange rate and is not trading to make money.

Kind of like like buying insurance. With house insurance for example you pay someone to take on the risk of your house burning down and whatever else the insurance covers. Obviously the insurance companies make money so we are on the end of losing trades buying insurance, but we are happy to pay someone to take on our risk that we do not want or can't afford to take.


----------



## fiftyeight

Cheers thongs.

Was just doing a little bit of reading before I went out and came across similar answers. The breakdown of big losers for a year vs the big winners would be interesting to see.

I assume its not public information but would anyone have an idea of what size and equity curves of different players are?


----------



## barney

havaiana said:


> I might be wrong here, but I reckon the biggest losers will be the guys using the futures for what they were originally designed for, the hedgers.
> 
> A company can make a hedge on the exchange rate for example, so they don't have to worry about the risk of currency changes/fluctuations on their cost of doing business. The company can effectively lock in the exchange rate and is not trading to make money.
> 
> Kind of like like buying insurance. With house insurance for example you pay someone to take on the risk of your house burning down and whatever else the insurance covers. Obviously the insurance companies make money so we are on the end of losing trades buying insurance, but we are happy to pay someone to take on our risk that we do not want or can't afford to take.




I have no idea really but that makes sense Hav ... Gives liquidity to the market irrespective of direction??  Are there any stats on the actual make up of any given Futs market? ie. Number of Hedgers(Instos), Day Traders(TH'ers lol),Retailers(losers) etc. .....

Thoughts TH ??


ps  I see you asked the same question above "58"   ..... My guess is it really makes little difference .... as long as the liquidity is there, it can be traded  ... We should all give thanks that there are "big boys" cause there would be no market without them.


----------



## kid hustlr

Decent chunk of selling on the close in a lot of equity markets on Friday. Month end selling by the big boys? 

Given how tough the last 5-6 years have been if I'm a fundy sitting well in the black for the year you better believe I'm taking some risk off the table while the markets are thick instead of relying on a volumeless xmas rally to improve my return (and bonus?)


----------



## kid hustlr

wow @ the ftse open


----------



## tech/a

kid hustlr said:


> wow @ the ftse open




Won't stop there either.


----------



## kid hustlr

tech/a said:


> Won't stop there either.




Agreed looks very heavy

maybe stops above 6623 but not sure it gets up there


----------



## CanOz

kid hustlr said:


> Agreed looks very heavy
> 
> maybe stops above 6623 but not sure it gets up there




Cruised through the VWAP at 6630 pretty easy...


----------



## tech/a

tech/a said:


> Won't stop there either.




That'll do.
Night all


----------



## kid hustlr

tech/a said:


> That'll do.
> Night all




Interested as to where you entered your short trade if you get a chance? I had a short bias coming in but it ripped down so quickly initially I was unable to get a piece. 

My only trade was a quick long looking for some short stops which didn't eventuate and led to a scratch.

I was looking for a sell set up when we retraced into the 6630 - 6635 area but couldn't find a low risk entry.

See chart


----------



## kid hustlr

TH penny for your thoughts.

There's about fifty thousand PMI numbers which come out of China each month. Which one do you give the most weighting to? My experience has been that no one gives a rats about the non-manufacturing PMI, but the manufacturing obviously influences aussie markets but theres the Markit, theres the HSBC, theres official. Which one is the real market mover?

All very confusing


----------



## Trembling Hand

kid hustlr said:


> TH penny for your thoughts.
> 
> There's about fifty thousand PMI numbers which come out of China each month. Which one do you give the most weighting to? My experience has been that no one gives a rats about the non-manufacturing PMI, but the manufacturing obviously influences aussie markets but theres the Markit, theres the HSBC, theres official. Which one is the real market mover?
> 
> All very confusing




The official has a much larger spread of enterprises (3000 I think), many more medium companies, than the HSBC (430). But it doesn't really matter the market reads it as it wants; good can be good, good can be bad. (and with China official data you can bet that everyone who matters already knows about it  ) It has more to do with what type of market we are in. I said to a friend yesterday morning that I was going to have a short day. I just guessed that being 1st of Dec we would be bullish and thats the way the market would read it. So got long early and hung on till the pop. 

At the start of the year the PMI was just about every time used to smash the market even when month to month the reading changed significantly. :


----------



## kid hustlr

Trembling Hand said:


> The official has a much larger spread of enterprises (3000 I think), many more medium companies, than the HSBC (430). But it doesn't really matter the market reads it as it wants; good can be good, good can be bad. (and with China official data you can bet that everyone who matters already knows about it  ) It has more to do with what type of market we are in. I said to a friend yesterday morning that I was going to have a short day. I just guessed that being 1st of Dec we would be bullish and thats the way the market would read it. So got long early and hung on till the pop.
> 
> At the start of the year the PMI was just about every time used to smash the market even when month to month the reading changed significantly. :




yeah ta mate. as always market will digest it however they please im just tired off having to pull my book every second day because theres another PMI number out of China.


----------



## CanOz

Haven't seen bergs for weeks on the DAX, then this today


----------



## pavilion103

Sitting at KL about to board the plane back to Adelaide.

Haven't checked FTSE in 2 weeks. Looks like maybe it's coming off a bit.

Will be back onto it soon!


----------



## CanOz

pavilion103 said:


> Sitting at KL about to board the plane back to Adelaide.
> 
> Haven't checked FTSE in 2 weeks. Looks like maybe it's coming off a bit.
> 
> Will be back onto it soon!




KL, that used to be a crappy airport...

Europe sold off well...


----------



## havaiana

Barely anyone visits the USD/JPY thread so thought I would post this here instead so hopefully I can get some feedback on a theory I have. 

*Are oversized orders in the book at the end of an extended move more likely to be take profits than entries?* (assuming the order is not a spoof or a spread)

Example of this type of order in pic below, context is; Yen has been in an extended down move, so this limit buy is against this big movement 
	

		
			
		

		
	





*1. If you are placing this order as an entry of your whole position*
*a/* people could front run, preventing the order from being filled and/or give you a worse entry price
*b/* if it gets filled and keeps going against you, other traders could suspect you are in a position that is underwater and if exited at a loss is going to take some time and cost to exit, probably not the best position to be in

*2. If you are entering as a small part of a much bigger order*
*a/* people could front run you giving you a worse entry price

*3. If you are entering to close a whole position or at least the last part of it*
*a/* you could move price against you, but are in profit, so not as crucial
*b/ *once the order is known to be real, you are advertising to other big traders that the liquidity that would usually be hard to find so cheaply is available to anyone who wants it and if they do take it could save you the time and potential of moving price against you.


----------



## kid hustlr

Got a nice long trade then, exited for a 10 point winner when I saw a huge volume sweep on the FTSE. it kind of popped up then they slammed it back down, will re-assess this trade later, given it was a good trade in profit I wonder if once again I've exited too quickly but my gut said when I see price action like that to exit. Time will tell.

Also, Still feel like any long trade has less legs than a short trade right now anyway


----------



## tech/a

10 ticks is 10 ticks

This is churning I cant find anything.


----------



## kid hustlr

tech/a said:


> 10 ticks is 10 ticks
> 
> This is churning I cant find anything.




Yeah I contemplated going for a few 3 tick scalps for a while there but put that idea back in the top draw pretty quickly. I still feel contextually its pretty heavy but after 2 heavy down days I can't see it falling off a cliff again.


----------



## kid hustlr

TH when do equities start rolling over? Roll week for the bonds starts Monday afternoon and from memory the equities start the week after and then currencies are the last to go?

by my calcs that's equities starting to rollover on the 16th or so?


----------



## Trembling Hand

kid hustlr said:


> TH when do equities start rolling over? Roll week for the bonds starts Monday afternoon and from memory the equities start the week after and then currencies are the last to go?
> 
> by my calcs that's equities starting to rollover on the 16th or so?




Yeah its earlier than normal because of Xmas but I would just check each exchange list, the HSI is a monthly contract so I'm dealing with it what seems like all the time but they are all diff....


----------



## kid hustlr

Trembling Hand said:


> Yeah its earlier than normal because of Xmas but I would just check each exchange list, the HSI is a monthly contract so I'm dealing with it what seems like all the time but they are all diff....




yeah ok ta mate i'll have a look tonight.


----------



## havaiana

Marty Schwartz talking trading


----------



## pavilion103

Looking at the FTSE chart for the first time since I got back. 

Bloody heck there was some obvious bearish action the 3 bars before the recent fall!!!!

Devastated to be away for that period. 3 bars pushing up, closing near low and on low/deceased volume. 

That really sucks!!!


----------



## kid hustlr

Would like to revisit the discussion on TIME if you boys get a chance.

Last couple of weeks I've noticed more and more how important time of day is when it comes to how to approach my trading. This is mainly in the bond futures but some quick examples:

- Late in the day its quite busy - have less standing orders
- Early in the day - same deal
- quite often the market can completely disconnect after the day close. gives opportunities to place certain trades at night and then unwind during the day and vica versa. It's like theres no recognistion of what happened during the day.
- Over lunch it can get SUPER quiet, adjust trading accordingly.
- When the treasuries re-open (at now 10 oclock am our time) it can turn busy again v quickly.

It's just little things like this which have REALLY helped my trading and I think a lot of the best guys trade the time of day really well.

TH, is this what you were getting at a few weeks back?


----------



## havaiana

kid hustlr said:


> Would like to revisit the discussion on TIME ...




Agree with everything you said. There are a couple of other ways that come to mind of how I use time

If I am fading a breakout, I don't know how far price will break out, but I will find if I am entering at the end of the bars (end of bar as in time), then if there is a big breakout I will usually get a better price than if I had faded at the start of the bar. Or sometimes when I have waited for near the end of the bar I'll decide to not fade yet because it has moved too far and closing at highs,  now I want to wait for a pullback to go the other way. Obviously if it breaks out by 2 ticks and immediately reverses big in the first 10 seconds I can miss the entry, but doesn't happen as often as I had expected from my observations in my markets.

Price can get in a rhythm, sometimes you can use it to know when to enter and exit in terms time rather than price (made up example. lunchtime low vol day might be 1 min bar up, 1 min bar down, repeat. Market open could be 3-5 5 min bars up, 3-5 5 min bars down, repeat). When you watch it and use it with time of day as you previously mentioned and volume (likelihood of trend v range day, low v high volatility day etc) you can use it to help time entries and exits. You don't know how far it will move, but can time around how long it might move. When it starts to change it can give you a heads up on a change in market condition and another added advantage is it helps you dump trades that are going nowhere and hold on to the ones that work right away. But like anything else it's far from fail proof, sometimes it works like a charm and other times it will f*** you. 

Have had a few drinks so if my post isn't clear let me know and will try and explain better later.

Would also like to know TH's thoughts, i remember him mentioning about a certain setup in hang seng that when it spikes x ticks, fade, than exit after x amount of time. And another post about price moving in 3-5 day patterns. His blog post about candles printing in the last seconds of a bar helped me heaps.


----------



## CanOz

Interesting tidbit from the Propex site:



> You can always tell a scalper by the type of questions he asks – short and to the point.
> 
> It makes them easy to answer. Here are some questions recently received via email.
> 
> Below are some of my thoughts on ZN. Wondering if you could comment on them? Am i in the right direction in analyzing the market? Do the 'rules' listed down in some bullet points make sense?
> 
> 1. Scratch more often. Queue to enter. Scratch if size gets thinner too fast. See pt 9 too.
> 
> Love it.
> 
> 2. When approaching a weak support or resistance from a few ticks away, fade once only.
> 
> Hmmm, sometimes yes, sometimes no. Try scaling in like you would in the levels drill.
> 
> 3. The longer a position waits to square, the more likely it will lose. Scratch or cut non performing positions earlier.
> 
> More time in the market will teach you the 'know when to hold and know when to fold' approach.
> 
> 4. Follow EMA 22 on 1 min chart. Only upsize once when touch ema. Reduce to one clip ASAP, by scratch/cut/tp.
> 
> Not my thing, but if it works for you then fine.
> 
> 5. Fading major support/resistance fail: cut and turn around immediately.
> 
> Careful not to pay up on entry.
> 
> 6. PATIENCE!!!
> 
> Absolutely, more than anything.
> 
> 7. Look for leading signal from related market.
> 
> Yes
> 
> 8. Try averaging moderately in sideways market. Enter at every two ticks.
> 
> Yes
> 
> 9. For ZN sl and tp should not be 1 tick.
> 
> Yes, but be flexible


----------



## kid hustlr

Yeah interesting stuff Hav. When we start talking specifics and shorter time frames I think here's where 'knowing your market' and the specifics on each market become so important and the ultimate difference.

When I think back to the lunch time example I mentioned above I can even go deeper than that. So often our XT might get pushed one way in the morning. Then it settles down over lunch and then gets pushed again in the afternoon. It's one player pushing the market and at some stage he heads off to lunch, the market might come back to him a little over that period then he hits it again in the afternoon.

Similarly its not uncommon for us to drift a couple of ticks over lunch as the volume thins out. That being said it is VERY unlikely that's its going to drift through a big support/resistance level during this period. In my opinion if we drift into a support/resistance area its a good chance to take a low risk entry.

It's even the little things. If we get clobbered all day, buying the last half hour is a pretty good play, shorts need to unwind.

Each one of these points can be dissected with such detail when you  start thinking about who the players are and what their goals and time period are. Ultimately you've just got to build a picture/view and execute as best as possible


----------



## Trembling Hand

havaiana said:


> Would also like to know TH's thoughts, i remember him mentioning about a certain setup in hang seng that when it spikes x ticks, fade, than exit after x amount of time. And another post about price moving in 3-5 day patterns. His blog post about candles printing in the last seconds of a bar helped me heaps.




Time to me is everything. It *is *support and resistance. Not some linear trend line nor some silly couple of numbers that one can pick out where something happened previously, or even some straight line running years back on a chart that may be there depending if you are using log, semi-log or not!!!!. What sends markets to the moon or into cascading selloffs is time. Its also why gap fill opens require time to work back rather than the very rare straight line close in first 15 min that we had on the HSI last Monday.

To move a market you need to built up participation AND you need people to act. The way you do that mostly is by trapping enough on the wrong side to have an explosive move as they all scramble for the exits at once (these are moves after the open vol has been absorbed) or the other way is to have the story build; that is convince enough punters sitting on the sidelines that they need to get in on this story. (this is the opening action after ON news etc and the day themes as the market goes from direction-less to explosion(the god its boring day to WOW!!))

Without time and an imbalance between week and strong hands it is too easy to lean on the initial breaks and push it back into the old range. That is when I play fade everything because you have weakies jumping and acting on little and quiet moves. Thats why most breaks fail until enough time goes by that there is simply too much pressure. And you have a lot of positions open in expectation of counter moves, thats when you see support and resistance just melt away because in actual fact it wasn't the price that had it range bound it was the* lack of time*.


----------



## ThingyMajiggy

So like now for instance you'd be fading everything on the Seng at this time of day?


----------



## Trembling Hand

ThingyMajiggy said:


> So like now for instance you'd be fading everything on the Seng at this time of day?




I have been but now starting to think about the possibility of an up side break into the DAX open so maybe hang on to longs to see what happens. If it goes add and add lots. If it doesn't no harm done.


----------



## Trembling Hand

Like this one. 23810ish and will add if it bounces.


----------



## Trembling Hand

Could be a perfect example but wrong direction......


----------



## Caveroute

Trembling Hand said:


> Could be a perfect example but wrong direction......




Uhm, dunno, looks like a bull spike and channel right now.


----------



## pavilion103

Interesting to see if it pushes up a little today and over the next couple of days. If it moves into the 6600-6650 area on low volume and bearish behaviour, I will look for a position trade shorting opportunity.


----------



## Trembling Hand

Nothin' doin'

Perfect non-example!!


----------



## kid hustlr

I've been a bit lackluster on the FTSE lately to be honest. Plenty of other stuff going on and just haven't had the drive to put in the hours given how many hours I'm doing during the day. Looking forward to a break over xmas and then hitting it again in the new year


----------



## pavilion103

Does anyone else feel that the FTSE would really come off from here?

I'm looking to get short.


----------



## tech/a

Could have been earlier for position trade.
But there will be trades.


----------



## pavilion103

Agree. Shame I was gone at the time I was gone. I saw what was happening but couldn't get on. 

I've taken 1 contract tonight. We'll see how it plays out. 
As you said, the position trade was there to be taken at the top, not today.


----------



## pavilion103

A good night to come back on. 
I had a feeling about this at the start of the night. 
Looked bearish and look at it struggling to push up at resistance. 3 attempts after the initial high. 

What I also like is that if it holds below 6460ish there is a little bit of clear air to push down.


----------



## pavilion103

A nice push down now. 
This is quite interesting on the daily chart. 
Some space below. 
We'll see how this closes the day.


----------



## pavilion103

A bit annoyed because I took some funds out of my account and have some in CBA short. Placed a 2 contract order initially but it didn't execute. The exact reason was so I could close one if I'm in this position and hold another over night.

We'll see how it plays out!


----------



## pavilion103

I don't trade the DJIA but looking at the chart does anyone else think that it looks like a great time for a position trade short?


----------



## kid hustlr

Nice entry!

How did you manage it from there? Looks like it ripped back up pretty viciously on the US open before sliding off again


----------



## pavilion103

Not much management!
More set and forget.
I didn't get taken out when it pushed back up. 
Once I was in I left it.
If I had the 2 contracts that I wanted I would have exited one around 6430-40.

Currently about 50 points in profit.

I think the risk to reward is reasonable.
I see some clear air down to 6300.
Yesterday's bar pushed down on stronger volume and has closed near the low.
US looking a bit weak to me.
Potential talk of stimulus being cut back. If anything is announced this could help too.

I'm surprisingly unemotional about this because I've already made the decision to hold. 
If I give it all back well bad luck. I'd regret getting out too soon more than giving back profit.

Would have preferred a position trade from the top but this could be ok.

Trade management.... Either I get taken out or it pushes down near 6300 and I reassess.


----------



## pavilion103

I saw the entry as very clear last night and the fact that there was potential to the downside was a positive.


----------



## Trembling Hand

pavilion103 said:


> US looking a bit weak to me.
> Potential talk of stimulus being cut back. If anything is announced this could help too.




I'm expecting a wild ride around the fed announcement so ya wanna be watching.


pavilion103 said:


> I'm surprisingly unemotional about this because I've already made the decision to hold.
> If I give it all back well bad luck. I'd regret getting out too soon more than giving back profit.




And if ya gonna hold don't stuff it up by hanging into expiry.


----------



## pavilion103

All good advice as usual TH.

And yes.... We've been there before haven't we haha. I am very mindful about expiry! This weekend I'll need to check the exact day!


----------



## pavilion103

http://www.reuters.com/article/2013/12/12/us-markets-stocks-poll-britain-idUSBRE9BB0W120131212

Does this article guarantee that the market will fall haha?



But in all seriousness, even if this pushes up and I get taken out, I'll look for a re-entry to the short side. Obviously the Fed stuff to be very catious of as TH mentioned, but I do think this looks bearish. I'll take it one bar at a time and be open minded!


----------



## kid hustlr

Good to hear Pav, I was worried you had been stopped out.

TH whats the fed announcement?


----------



## pavilion103

Tapering...


----------



## pavilion103

Interesting day yesterday on the FTSE. Looking weak still IMO.

Will be interesting to see if my position trade holds here. A big couple of days ahead and fed announcement on Wednesday. I'm not convinced on the tapering yet and wonder if this might take me out if news goes against me.
If it all works out in my favour this could be a good move. Some free air to 6300 at least.


----------



## pavilion103

Does the low volume trading hours mean anything much? 

I noticed the FTSE. Has gone from 6437 up to 6450 and now down to 6401.

Does anyone read much into this trading?
What types of people trade at this time?

I don't really understand what occurs and why anyone trades it during these hours?

Can someone please explain this because I have no idea! Is a fall of 50 points here a lot for this type of period? I think volume is around only 2000 soon total from 11:30am when it opened.


----------



## kid hustlr

Yeah that's a huge fall, see my post in the other thread about them smashing the e-mini. It's all out of hours though I'm not sure you can 'read' too much into it, that being said if its going your way its a good thing!


----------



## pavilion103

I just posted in there. I don't usually check these hours. I'm only checking because I'm in the trade. 
Even checking it just before the open I can't remember it having moved that much from the night before


----------



## tech/a

It will follow other bourses.
Eg DJIA
Then ASIA.


----------



## pavilion103

It doesn't seem like too many people on here are following the FTSE closely at the moment. 

Struggling to get any sort of dialogue going. Maybe in the new year people will be back on board. 

I thought the the Fed meeting coming up in the next couple of days there would be a bit more interest in terms of the new potential move.


----------



## Trembling Hand

pavilion103 said:


> It doesn't seem like too many people on here are following the FTSE closely at the moment.
> 
> Struggling to get any sort of dialogue going. Maybe in the new year people will be back on board.
> 
> I thought the the Fed meeting coming up in the next couple of days there would be a bit more interest in terms of the new potential move.




I haven't commented much because you have a longer term position on. You don't need me telling what I think _your _trade will do. 

But as per my Int banter thread comment its not surprising that the index has closed the gap from a Monday morn sweep.


----------



## tech/a

Not much to talk about PAV


----------



## pavilion103

Yeh longer term position doesn't need analysis every 2 minutes. 

Usually just a few more on here trading it. I guess it's also a busy time of the year.


----------



## tech/a

May be time to move to the DAX
More volatility.( short term trading )


----------



## pavilion103

tech/a said:


> May be time to move to the DAX
> More volatility.( short term trading )




I should learn it too for more opportunity.


----------



## pavilion103

The tough situation when in a position trade and wanting to take a short term long setup!

My stop is almost taken out on my longer term position. Not too disappointed. I know longer term I am able to make these work. 

In future at the really opportune times I will take 2 contracts on a potential position trade and look to trade one of those shorter term. 

Excited about the opportunities ahead.


----------



## tech/a

pavilion103 said:


> The tough situation when in a position trade and wanting to take a short term long setup!
> 
> My stop is almost taken out on my longer term position. Not too disappointed. I know longer term I am able to make these work.
> 
> In future at the really opportune times I will take 2 contracts on a potential position trade and look to trade one of those shorter term.
> 
> Excited about the opportunities ahead.




All is not done yet!


----------



## havaiana

I had read a few Linda Bradford Raschke articles in the past and didn't think they were anything special, but  found this webinar really practical (better than the last video I posted, this one i have actually watched the whole way through before posting). It starts a bit slow and it's long, but you can skip the questions at the end which take up nearly half the video


----------



## pavilion103

Out.

Can't allow holding a short stop me from taking a long.

50 points profit from 7 points risk. Annoying.

But this is good. So eye opening. Learning little lessons all the time. I'm enjoying it. 
Potential is enormous. Will get there!!


----------



## kid hustlr

Argh lame Pav.

big move over night. Interesting to hear TH's thoughts about the Monday gap usually filling, will put that in the back of my mind. 

----

I guess we look towards the FOMC meeting Thursday morning now. It's funny you know on the weekend one of my friends was talking about the sharemarket and tapering etc etc. The fact he even knows what tapering is makes me think a big sell off on Thursday is even more unlikely. If he knows, everyone knows.

Not quite sure how to approach this now, I figured there would be a few shorts going into FOMC and that would be the ammo to cause a rally. Given last night's action I wonder if that's less likely and if we just stay flat for the next couple of days the announcement might be a fizzer and everyone goes off and enjoys an early xmas.


----------



## pavilion103

Didn't quite work out but that's ok. 

Yeh I don't know what to expect with this announcement now. It does seem like a lot of people know about it.

We'll see


----------



## Trembling Hand

To be honest Pav it is a silly time to try and do a position trade. The volatility is going to be nutz. There is a very low likelyhood of being able to hang onto anything over the next few days. That stop sweep yesterday is a classic example of how the market will be searching for some fun.

Further more you should be on this action, taking bits out of it rather than trying to guess the big trade over a week. These are the times to be making hay.......... in small bunches..... rather than trying to fill the barn in one big grab.


----------



## tech/a

tech/a said:


> All is not done yet!




Back on track and duly frustrating eh PAV!


----------



## cbc

Thanks for all your posts on the FTSE pav.  In fact I think I'l trade it instead of the ESTX50.  Although I do like the ESTX50,  the FTSE is a higher index.  

Sori I missed out on your longer term position.  Where did you enter at and in what direction?


----------



## pavilion103

Trembling Hand said:


> To be honest Pav it is a silly time to try and do a position trade. The volatility is going to be nutz. There is a very low likelyhood of being able to hang onto anything over the next few days. That stop sweep yesterday is a classic example of how the market will be searching for some fun.  Further more you should be on this action, taking bits out of it rather than trying to guess the big trade over a week. These are the times to be making hay.......... in small bunches..... rather than trying to fill the barn in one big grab.




Thanks for the advice. I guess being I aquatinted with these sorts if times I assumed if I could get on one before the announcement (plus the chart looked bearish), that it might be a high RR play.

I should be looking for a position trade from support resistance levels rather than here.

50 points given back. Then 50 lost last night by being short when I wanted that long. My psychology is strong. It doesn't matter much to me. The bigger picture is what I care about. These lessons are gold. In 2-3 years I will be very very good if I can continue to learn at this rate.

Having said that I'm very confident of a big 2014!


----------



## pavilion103

tech/a said:


> Back on track and duly frustrating eh PAV!




Tech all good.
I'm more excited that I got on the 50 point move and then identified the one last night too, rather than being disappointed with the end result.

I WILL get on 300 or 400 point moved at some point and it will be great. They will be few and far between but in the meantime I need to make as many 20-50 point intra day moved as possible.

I've got a good playbook forming. Learning rapidly. Bring it on!


----------



## pavilion103

cbc said:


> Thanks for all your posts on the FTSE pav.  In fact I think I'l trade it instead of the ESTX50.  Although I do like the ESTX50,  the FTSE is a higher index.  Sori I missed out on your longer term position.  Where did you enter at and in what direction?




I think 6480 short. Somewhere around there. I was about 80 points in profit at the peak before giving it back.   

All good. Next time.


----------



## tech/a

Short at the moment.
Here is my reasoning.





DAX is similar but not trading it.


----------



## Caveroute

Same short entry, fading the b/o, 6519.

Target MM down to 6487.

Probability not very high - but hey it's xmas.


----------



## pavilion103

Interesting action. 

I have a couple of questions for people. 

1) Do you see the always-in position as long now? Or do people think the downtrend will resume? Or is it just too difficult to discern in these conditions?

2) Is there likely to be increased volatility in the coming days? Potential intraday plays?


I was on early this morning and considered getting long after the shakeout. But then I thought, "Don't touch it you idiot. You have no idea what you are doing", so I wisely left it alone (even thought it would have been a nice 50 points or so). 

Reminder that December contract for FTSE expires tomorrow.


----------



## kid hustlr

pavilion103 said:


> Interesting action.
> 
> I have a couple of questions for people.
> 
> 1) Do you see the always-in position as long now? Or do people think the downtrend will resume? Or is it just too difficult to discern in these conditions?
> 
> 2) Is there likely to be increased volatility in the coming days? Potential intraday plays?
> 
> 
> I was on early this morning and considered getting long after the shakeout. But then I thought, "Don't touch it you idiot. You have no idea what you are doing", so I wisely left it alone (even thought it would have been a nice 50 points or so).
> 
> Reminder that December contract for FTSE expires tomorrow.




I think it's a good call not trading it. Especially with something like that where there's the fomc release THEN the Q+A. It can rip around on a dime and whilst in hindsight its a shakeout it could have easily come back on itself. Not saying its not tradeable, just saying for someone of your level (and that's not a jab) I think its best to sit back.

In terms of medium term now, I think that looks like a low to me. I'd be leaning towards coming from the long side for the next period, obviously this view/opinion can change pretty quick.

Interestingly the last 2 rollover times have marked an intermediate top (Sep) and bottom (June) so perhaps this rollover marks an intermediate bottom??


----------



## Trembling Hand

pavilion103 said:


> Interesting action. .




Always is. 



pavilion103 said:


> 1) Do you see the always-in position as long now? Or do people think the downtrend will resume? Or is it just too difficult to discern in these conditions?
> 
> 2) Is there likely to be increased volatility in the coming days? Potential intraday plays?




Well its intellectually warm and fuzzy to be a Bear but,

There should be a "re-think" by many from here on (and I'm not talking the doesn't matter retail crowd) now that the communication has plainly stated what they have actually _always _been saying. Stimulus stays until unemployment gets to 6.5 *then* we will look at it more closely.

I would expect some push and pull then it settles down in the New Year to whatever its gonna do. Up to Xmass its very much in favour of the colour green. Thats the reason why the fed played it the way they did.


Having said that a massive gap fill in Asia or Euro land is not completely out of the question from today. Just not my preferred thinking from here.


----------



## tech/a

Warm and fuzzy is good.
So is sleeping with one eye open!


----------



## CanOz

Trembling Hand said:


> Having said that a massive gap fill in Asia or Euro land is not completely out of the question from today.




Especially after sweeping out the shorts....


----------



## pavilion103

Interested to see how this trades tonight. I hope there is some volatility.


----------



## cbc

pavilion103 said:


> 1) Do you see the always-in position as long now? Or do people think the downtrend will resume? Or is it just too difficult to discern in these conditions?




I'd say its goin to keep going down.  Then again I always tend to trade in the direction its going.  It is the longest down trend on the 1yr chart (lasting roughly 1 1/2 months so far).   Whether that means a reversal is likely  .  The 1yr chart has been all over the shop.  2 hard to say IMO.


----------



## pavilion103

Action has been non-existent. 

I left the screen early and spent the night in a pool. Wise move.


----------



## CanOz

pavilion103 said:


> Action has been non-existent.
> 
> I left the screen early and spent the night in a pool. Wise move.




The markets are getting thin...everyone is commenting about it...fair enough, Christmas is just around the corner.:chimney


----------



## pavilion103

It's been a good 6 months trading the FTSE. 
I've learnt a lot. 

It is time to step things up a bit now in terms of analysis and focus. 

This is the type of template I am looking to use to record all good trades every night that I am trading the FTSE. This will allow for much easier analysis as I continue to build my playbook of trades. 

I understand that if I am going to achieve financial freedom through trading futures it is going to take a lot of work and a lot of analysis. I need to get really serious about this now.


----------



## pavilion103

Note: the notes in the analysis won't make perfect sense because some parts are hidden and other parts don't even apply to this analysis. It's just a template. 

The reason I am keen to post these up frequently (hopefully) is to get some feedback on trades and thoughts that I can incorporate in each particular analysis to improve my analysis of the individual trade.


----------



## tech/a

Good to reflect on.
Don't over think trades.
Bullet point key points.

Been trading the last 2 sessions
Pretty average---  56 quid!


----------



## pavilion103

tech/a said:


> Good to reflect on. Don't over think trades. Bullet point key points.  Been trading the last 2 sessions Pretty average---  56 quid!




Tonight was ok if you took that entry that I posted. Could break lower now. But I haven't been too active in the last couple of weeks either. 

How much easier does it make things if you get on one early in the day and trail it sensibly! I love hear sort of setups.


----------



## peter2

Pav: I like your template. The daily chart outlines what is happening and allows you to anticipate your trading opportunities for the day. 
eg after the Fed taper decision, look go long every day until the prior high (which you've mentioned could be resistance). Now that we are at R, the opportunities increase meaning that as well as trend continuation plays, reversals are also a possibility. 

I might be worth your time trying to categorise or name your plays so that you can group them and find out what you do well and which setups are your favourites. 

I agree with Tech/a don't spend too much effort describing what happened, just note the setup (play) and whether you traded your plan well or made a mistake. 

Overall I like your approach and think you should improve quickly now that your journal has a better structure.


----------



## pavilion103

Thanks for the feedback. I agree with all that you say. Always enjoy hearing your thoughts!


----------



## pavilion103

On the chart that I posted, what are people's thoughts on the second little trade I could have taken ?
It's after the blue circle. The little up channel on low volume provided a 3.5 risk trade that I identified at the time. Considered it being in 12 points profit already with stop at BE.

Do people think that would have been a good way to add to the position?
Given that we were early in the day too with the trend unfolding? I contemplated it. Entered it in. But cancelled.

Exit 6680.

With the second position....
1st position = 33 points (6.5 risk)
2nd position= 21 points (3.5 risk)

Total = 54 points = $1,000 profit.
Minimal risk to achieve this.

I like the idea of taking a second position when in profit. Particularly with very small risk and on a 'pullback' in a trend which is already underway.

Thoughts? Anyone share my sentiments?


----------



## tech/a

PAV
Typical trigger pull phobia.
All setups are correct until proven incorrect
Just as they are incorrect until proven correct.

The only way you'll get good at this is take the trades.
Take the losses.
Tough out the setups---don't second guess.
Maximize your wins---I find profit targets best for me.

You actually have to do it!---with your hard earned at risk.
It can gobble a days pay in 10 mins
Make a weeks pay in a session.

I do understand your trepidation

Have a great 2014 everyone.


----------



## pavilion103

I think it's about getting clear about my setups and which ones to take and not to take. That's why this playbook will give more certainty in terms if what I am going to take, how many contracts, when to add etc.

If I can get my trading setups and rules a bit more solidified it will lead to less emotional decision making in the moment (like last night).

I know what I need to do!


----------



## CanOz

pavilion103 said:


> I think it's about getting clear about my setups and which ones to take and not to take. That's why this playbook will give more certainty in terms if what I am going to take, how many contracts, when to add etc.
> 
> If I can get my trading setups and rules a bit more solidified it will lead to less emotional decision making in the moment (like last night).
> 
> I know what I need to do!




Have some context based plays as well Pav, the TH type of stuff...Market gaps up on news, trys to make a new high and they trap a bunch of traders then run the stops on the higher low etc...Or the longer type plays that take more time to develop, where you can see someone building a large postion where they could be right or have to bail out...


----------



## >Apocalypto<

tech/a said:


> PAV
> Typical trigger pull phobia.
> *All setups are correct until proven incorrect
> Just as they are incorrect until proven correct.*




that is Gold Pav you have to try and live by this... it's so true... if I had a $ for everytime i second guessed a set up just to see it turn into the best trade of the week. don't think never think just sit and wait.

prime example see pic... i was long... held a few hours and kept having trouble at the short term high. so i got thinking to much and closed well you can see what happened next. off it went.


----------



## kid hustlr

havaiana said:


> I had read a few Linda Bradford Raschke articles in the past and didn't think they were anything special, but  found this webinar really practical (better than the last video I posted, this one i have actually watched the whole way through before posting). It starts a bit slow and it's long, but you can skip the questions at the end which take up nearly half the video





Finally got around to watching this. Well worth the time.

---

Nice trading last night Pav, good way to finish the year in my opinion.


----------



## pavilion103

If I was to trade any market during the day, our time, what would people suggest?

Are there a few good options?
A standout?

Obviously something reasonably similar to what I'm doing if possible. If not, then the next best thing.


----------



## tech/a

pavilion103 said:


> If I was to trade any market during the day, our time, what would people suggest?
> 
> Are there a few good options?
> A standout?
> 
> Obviously something reasonably similar to what I'm doing if possible. If not, then the next best thing.




HSI
Got the volatility like trading a fly.
Deeper pockets.

For something less exciting and 
more like trading an elephant SPI

Easier to position trade the SPI in your case. $25/tick

I'm sure there are other suggestions.


----------



## CanOz

You could always start off with the *MHI *Pav, its the Hang Seng mini and its a good learner. You'll find the brokerage to be a bit steep relative to the big brother but its moves quite well as a proxy....see for your self. You should have access to them both through IB.

http://www1.interactivebrokers.ch/contract_info/v3.8/index.php?action=Details&site=GEN&conid=139359089


----------



## RADO

pavilion103 said:


> If I was to trade any market during the day, our time, what would people suggest?
> 
> Are there a few good options?
> A standout?
> 
> Obviously something reasonably similar to what I'm doing if possible. If not, then the next best thing.




6A (fX AUD Futures contract) & SPI, but I wouldn't recommend trading them until the end of January or early Feb they always range for the first few weeks of the year. Trading this time of the year in general isn't really worth it markets are to thin. Just look at this chart.


----------



## kid hustlr

My vote goes towards HSI or 6A.


----------



## CanOz

RADO said:


> 6A (fX AUD Futures contract) & SPI, but I wouldn't recommend trading them until the end of January or early Feb they always range for the first few weeks of the year. Trading this time of the year in general isn't really worth it markets are to thin. Just look at this chart.
> View attachment 56217




Nice volume profiles there Rado


----------



## RADO

Thanks CanOz I think knowing where the POC is, is pretty important. Multicharts also plots volume Delta as a standard feature as well.


----------



## CanOz

yeah, i like the POC and VWAP...amazing how that gets tested so often too...i also have the prior POC and the developing POC plotted on a 60 min chart
.


----------



## pavilion103

Thanks guys. Gives me a bit to look into. If I do decide to go to 4 days at work (plus on other days off), I wouldn't mind learning some of those markets to give me the option to trade during the day also. 



I'm wondering what people think of this idea. 
I'm not saying that I'd have the time or inclination to do this (especially if I was making a stack of money trading).....

But as I've begun developing my playbook in the format that I disclosed in this thread, I've begun to think what a valuable tool this is. 

What do people think of a book idea along those lines of thinking. 
Basically an brief overview on Risk management and the risk-to-reward of trading and then basically a book full of these practical examples. 
It could be divided into sections such as: shorts, longs, trading at significant support/resistance etc. And it would be bascially almost all charts and trading examples with trade management also. 

It could even be "a year in the market" and track trades chronologically as vary market conditions evolve. And how to trade them by analysing various time frame charts. When to take more contracts when good RR presents, when to cash in, when to sit back etc.....

I don't know if anything like this exists out there. 
I sure wish I'd had something like it when starting out. 
I'm thinking more futures trading where it is just the index rather than all stocks. 

Why have I not come across anything like this?


----------



## Caveroute

pavilion103 said:


> Thanks guys. Gives me a bit to look into. If I do decide to go to 4 days at work (plus on other days off), I wouldn't mind learning some of those markets to give me the option to trade during the day also.
> 
> 
> 
> I'm wondering what people think of this idea.
> I'm not saying that I'd have the time or inclination to do this (especially if I was making a stack of money trading).....
> 
> But as I've begun developing my playbook in the format that I disclosed in this thread, I've begun to think what a valuable tool this is.
> 
> What do people think of a book idea along those lines of thinking.
> Basically an brief overview on Risk management and the risk-to-reward of trading and then basically a book full of these practical examples.
> It could be divided into sections such as: shorts, longs, trading at significant support/resistance etc. And it would be bascially almost all charts and trading examples with trade management also.
> 
> It could even be "a year in the market" and track trades chronologically as vary market conditions evolve. And how to trade them by analysing various time frame charts. When to take more contracts when good RR presents, when to cash in, when to sit back etc.....
> 
> I don't know if anything like this exists out there.
> I sure wish I'd had something like it when starting out.
> I'm thinking more futures trading where it is just the index rather than all stocks.
> 
> Why have I not come across anything like this?




Hi, 

What do you mean by "learn the markets ?"

My thinking is all future markets are created equal and trade entry / exit criteria remain the same [for me that's price action stuff].

What may vary is the chart type / trading window / initial stop position and any scalp / swing tactics you may run. 

For example on the ES, a typical scenario might be:
2000 ticks, RTH, worst case stop at 8 ticks, scalp half at 4 ticks and move stop to b/e at 5, discretionary exit. 

If your using 3/5 min charts that simplifies things even further - the chart has been chosen already. The problem with tick charts is you need to find a happy medium, so you get ~ the same number of bars as a 3/5 minute chart.


----------



## CanOz

> But as I've begun developing my playbook in the format that I disclosed in this thread, I've begun to think what a valuable tool this is.




In my view, its critical that you trade your own playbook. Its yours and belongs to no one else...You own it and therefore you have the faith in it that you need to stick with it when the rough patch comes along.

More valuable, might be how you go about developing a playbook...


----------



## pavilion103

That's what I'm curious to know. 

If it will be reasonably straightforward to go from trading the FTSE to the HSI for example because the markets are based on similar principles.

I know it was a difference going from stocks to futures but I'm curious about how much difference here is within different futures contracts.


----------



## CanOz

Personally according to my experience i find the most similarities are with markets of similar "thickness". A market that has single digits or double digits in the depth is totally different than a market with triple digits or more in the depth. Thin markets like the FTSE, DAX, CL, GC, HSI, etc., behave more similar than do thicker markets like the FESX, the ES, and treasuries bonds...

If you need volatility, then you'll tend to like the thinner markets....if you like time to make your decisions then you'll benefit from thicker markets...

There is more to a market than just a chart.


----------



## Caveroute

CanOz said:


> Personally according to my experience i find the most similarities are with markets of similar "thickness". A market that has single digits or double digits in the depth is totally different than a market with triple digits or more in the depth. Thin markets like the FTSE, DAX, CL, GC, HSI, etc., behave more similar than do thicker markets like the FESX, the ES, and treasuries bonds...
> 
> If you need volatility, then you'll tend to like the thinner markets....if you like time to make your decisions then you'll benefit from thicker markets...
> 
> There is more to a market than just a chart.




You might find this interesting.

http://www.brookspriceaction.com/viewtopic.php?t=1929

or same thing - 

Brooks Price Action Forum Index   » Trading  » Trading Journals  » BPA setups on the 2000 Tick ES chart

I think what your calling the playbook is the first post and the rest of the note [ many pages] is a detailed study of its use. 

Excellent quality. 

Of course - to these guys the chart is the market - that's all their interested in - you may agree or disagree.   

You may have to register on the Al Brooks web site to view this - I dunno.


----------



## CanOz

Caveroute said:


> Of course - to these guys the chart is the market - that's all their interested in - you may agree or disagree.




I don't mind Al Brooks at all actually and I've watched a couple of his webinars. However, the fact that all they are interested in is the chart leaves me a little uncertain of how credible they are as professional traders. I say this because i know that most professional intra-day traders, those that have large accounts full of OPM, don't use charts much....they use the depth of market with a chart for a reference. 

It just makes me wonder why the guys that only use charts, or charts with indicators have to sell something in addition to trading themselves. In addition to this, very rarely have i seen records for these intra-day gurus. It just seems to me that the real successful intra-day traders are:

1.) trading OPM and don't have anything to sell
2.) don't use charts as the core of the plays...more for context and reference

I'm not saying these retail guru have nothing of value, but that i take it all with a grain of salt as the entire industry is meant to suck in the retail wanna be...thats all.


----------



## Caveroute

CanOz said:


> I don't mind Al Brooks at all actually and I've watched a couple of his webinars. However, the fact that all they are interested in is the chart leaves me a little uncertain of how credible they are as professional traders. I say this because i know that most professional intra-day traders, those that have large accounts full of OPM, don't use charts much....they use the depth of market with a chart for a reference.
> 
> It just makes me wonder why the guys that only use charts, or charts with indicators have to sell something in addition to trading themselves. In addition to this, very rarely have i seen records for these intra-day gurus. It just seems to me that the real successful intra-day traders are:
> 
> 1.) trading OPM and don't have anything to sell
> 2.) don't use charts as the core of the plays...more for context and reference
> 
> I'm not saying these retail guru have nothing of value, but that i take it all with a grain of salt as the entire industry is meant to suck in the retail wanna be...thats all.




Yes I know what your saying. His forum has it's fair share of naysayers. 

At the end of the day it's a judgement call - and you need a frame of reference to work with - otherwise your totally lost, and for me this is it.

I'm no expert but the logic is clear and repeatable - it seems to stand up on what I've seen to date.

It's been described as playing a video game - you just need to get good at it !

The first 25 years are the worst !


----------



## CanOz

Caveroute said:


> It's been described as playing a video game - you just need to get good at it !
> 
> The first 25 years are the worst !




Well i tell ya, I'd rather be watching the markets intra-day than playing GTA 5, COD, or Battlefield. I love the passive learning you pick up by watching the screens. I'm far better at EOD trading though and i think that's where I'll be most consistent over the next few years.

Another 17 years to go...


----------



## CanOz

Woo hoo....clean those shorts out!


----------



## kid hustlr

CanOz said:


> Woo hoo....clean those shorts out!




Yeah quite a rally

Duckman, Pav, Cave, ANYONE, get a piece of this? the consolidation pattern near the bottom of the range recent range was probably enough to warrant an entry, i was too busy eating my dinner!


----------



## CanOz

kid hustlr said:


> Yeah quite a rally
> 
> Duckman, Pav, Cave, ANYONE, get a piece of this? the consolidation pattern near the bottom of the range recent range was probably enough to warrant an entry, i was too busy eating my dinner!




Must have been some news, i was peeling potatoes...


----------



## Caveroute

kid hustlr said:


> Yeah quite a rally
> 
> Duckman, Pav, Cave, ANYONE, get a piece of this? the consolidation pattern near the bottom of the range recent range was probably enough to warrant an entry, i was too busy eating my dinner!




Nah, I was cooking dinner !

Second entry long following a failed bo.

I reckon we could be looking at the reverse shortly - second entry short on the 150 tick chart at ~ 6685, come on down.


----------



## kid hustlr

im looking at a possible short also


----------



## kid hustlr

Short ant not really liking it.

EDIT: stopped.

lame.


----------



## Caveroute

kid hustlr said:


> Short ant not really liking it.
> 
> EDIT: stopped.
> 
> lame.




I didn't enter, that outside up bar spoiled the party.


----------



## tech/a

kid hustlr said:


> Short ant not really liking it.
> 
> EDIT: stopped.
> 
> lame.




Went short 6688
got out same reason.

Up to TV ---more interesting.


----------



## kid hustlr

Will re-assess the trade in the morning. In a nutshell right now I don't hate it but will have a re-think in the morning with a clear head.

I swear I should just start clicking to enter the fills I get using a buy and sell stop seem to be really bad lately.


----------



## Caveroute

kid hustlr said:


> Will re-assess the trade in the morning. In a nutshell right now I don't hate it but will have a re-think in the morning with a clear head.
> 
> I swear I should just start clicking to enter the fills I get using a buy and sell stop seem to be really bad lately.




fyi - my snapshot at 9:55


----------



## kid hustlr

Yeah I like your thoughts Cave.

I think my thought process was correct but perhaps my execution was a little off. This is just something which comes with practice. 

I slight re-adjustment of my entry + exit criteria might be in order.


----------



## tech/a

kid hustlr said:


> Yeah I like your thoughts Cave.
> 
> I think my thought process was correct but perhaps my execution was a little off. This is just something which comes with practice.
> 
> I slight re-adjustment of my entry + exit criteria might be in order.




Easy in hind site to question your method.
You can bet your bottom dollar that you'll change your 
Criteria just to see it hit just like your original plan!

Sure we miss some.


----------



## Caveroute

kid hustlr said:


> Yeah I like your thoughts Cave.
> 
> I think my thought process was correct but perhaps my execution was a little off. This is just something which comes with practice.
> 
> I slight re-adjustment of my entry + exit criteria might be in order.




Hi, 

I try and review each chart at the end of day - to complete our earlier discussion ,and in hindsight, this is what I saw from the ftse last night. 

The entries shown are all almost mechanical price action entries once you have taken a bearish view. 

Sure some are subjective and open interpretation - but they all conform to simple price action rules.


----------



## Caveroute

A little more ...


----------



## kid hustlr

Caveroute said:


> Hi,
> 
> I try and review each chart at the end of day - to complete our earlier discussion ,and in hindsight, this is what I saw from the ftse last night.
> 
> The entries shown are all almost mechanical price action entries once you have taken a bearish view.
> 
> Sure some are subjective and open interpretation - but they all conform to simple price action rules.




Completely agree, in hindsight, my short entry was either slightly to hasty or I didn't give the trade enough room to roll over. I learned a lot last night. All important lessons and in a weird way I got some gratitude out of the fact that it did come off, but its not about being right, its about being PROFITABLE!


----------



## Caveroute

Firstly all of what follows was done in hindsight - I'm just throwing up my interpretation of the FTSE action from last Friday night for comment.

It's all price action based stuff - following simple and regular rules, that provide an excellent perspective of whats going down.

Once you can do this in real time that is.

It's a 150 tick chart, there are probably too many bars, finding a happy compromise is one of areas under investigation. 

However, 5min, 3 min, 250 tick whatever - the interpretation will basically be the same or very similar.


----------



## Trembling Hand

pavilion103 said:


> That's what I'm curious to know.
> 
> If it will be reasonably straightforward to go from trading the FTSE to the HSI for example because the markets are based on similar principles.
> 
> I know it was a difference going from stocks to futures but I'm curious about how much difference here is within different futures contracts.




Well you may find it Ok but you will want to have a pretty robust approach. Its not that uncommon to have 5, 10 or even 20R losses in the HSI. If you cannot make that back fast you could find yourself falling into a hole.


----------



## tech/a

Trembling Hand said:


> Well you may find it Ok but you will want to have a pretty robust approach. Its not that uncommon to have 5, 10 or even 20R losses in the HSI. If you cannot make that back fast you could find yourself falling into a hole.




You must have altered your method T/H
20R loss is not something I've seen you accept in the past (Scatter charts).
Of course--what's your R?


----------



## Trembling Hand

tech/a said:


> You must have altered your method T/H
> 20R loss is not something I've seen you accept in the past (Scatter charts).
> Of course--what's your R?




Its not a matter of accepting it its just reality of trading a thin order book. If someone throws out a 1000 lot sweep order, which is a weekly event on the Seng, you will be luck to get filled 120 ticks past your stop trigger. I've seen a few 350 tick sweeps . If you are going to trade it for long enough you will be hit by them soon enough.... if not often.. 

My R amount is..... whatever it takes...  I don't really use hard stops.


----------



## tech/a

Trembling Hand said:


> Its not a matter of accepting it its just reality of trading a thin order book. If someone throws out a 1000 lot sweep order, which is a weekly event on the Seng, you will be luck to get filled 120 ticks past your stop trigger. I've seen a few 350 tick sweeps . If you are going to trade it for long enough you will be hit by them soon enough.... if not often..
> 
> My R amount is..... whatever it takes...  I don't really use hard stops.




Yes understand.
I didn't think you used a stop now.


----------



## pavilion103

A couple of small losses and then this active trade. Might look to exit soon. 

Price was in a triangle making lower highs. 

Got in as price pushed up to around 6695.5 with a stop 6699. 

3.5 risk.


----------



## tech/a

pavilion103 said:


> A couple of small losses and then this active trade. Might look to exit soon.
> 
> Price was in a triangle making lower highs.
> 
> Got in as price pushed up to around 6695.5 with a stop 6699.
> 
> 3.5 risk.
> 
> View attachment 56298




Hope you held this PAV


----------



## pavilion103

I got out around 6680 area because I was going to bed. 

Maybe should have left the stop in place and let it run over night. Would have been a nice 40 point move. Instead only got 15 and will have to look for a re-entry tonight if one presents. 

I should have followed my instincts because 
a) That chart looked bearish when I got in and then it took off
b) There was nothing to suggest it would move higher again. 

Ah well. 

Good setup with 3.5 point risk. 

Next time will probably look to hold.


----------



## pavilion103

Not holding these moves has probably been my biggest detriment so far.

I see this as something that can be very easily addressed and fixed. 

I don't see it as psychology of being afraid to hold, but rather poor decision making. If the decision is made PRIOR to the trade then all that needs to be done is stop to BE (or relevant pivot high/low) and set and forget. 

I'm really happy at how many good RR trades I am identifying. 


It's not difficult to see why the potential of futures trading is so exciting. 
Even for a 40 point move like this = $700+ profit. 
Do that 2 or 3 times a week and it's close to $2,000. 
Trade multiple contracts and it may be up over $5,000. 

Identifying (and riding) nice moves like this allows for a number of 3-5 point losses (not to mention all the BEs) when the trade doesn't work out as planned. 



I'll be on tonight looking for a short.


----------



## pavilion103

Wait a minute...

I just realised that price did push back up after I went to bed. 
If I held I would have been taken out at the pivot high anyway.

I guess it does raise the question of when to get out for a 10,15,20 point profit and when to hold. 
My thinking is
1) support resistance
2) a reason to get out (e.g. huge volume, test etc). 

In this instance there was some small support around 6670 (which is what I identified last night), but not hugely significant and I would have been just as happy to have held in hindsight. 


Another crack at it tonight!


----------



## tech/a

pavilion103 said:


> Wait a minute...
> 
> I just realised that price did push back up after I went to bed.
> If I held I would have been taken out at the pivot high anyway.
> 
> I guess it does raise the question of when to get out for a 10,15,20 point profit and when to hold.
> My thinking is
> 1) support resistance
> 2) a reason to get out (e.g. huge volume, test etc).
> 
> In this instance there was some small support around 6670 (which is what I identified last night), but not hugely significant and I would have been just as happy to have held in hindsight.
> 
> 
> Another crack at it tonight!




Conditional orders are good for this if you need to set --go to bed and SLEEP!


----------



## pavilion103

With IB do you have to set this up PRIOR to executing the original trade?

I.e. With an entry, a stop and a profit taking order?


----------



## tech/a

pavilion103 said:


> With IB do you have to set this up PRIOR to executing the original trade?
> 
> I.e. With an entry, a stop and a profit taking order?




Yes I've Private mailed you.


----------



## CanOz

tech/a said:


> Yes I've Private mailed you.




This is something that I've wanted to do another video on, bracket orders. Is this what you are using Tech?


----------



## ThingyMajiggy

Can you explain to me why that is bearish? You mention that is has lower highs, but it also has higher lows? What makes that triangle a bearish indicator? Looks like it could go either way to me?


----------



## pavilion103

ThingyMajiggy said:


> Can you explain to me why that is bearish? You mention that is has lower highs, but it also has higher lows? What makes that triangle a bearish indicator? Looks like it could go either way to me?




Agree. 

I'm analysing it in the context of the market. 
The high of the day was around 6704. 
Recent days saw resistance around 6710-6725. 
Would require a lot of force to push through. 
Not much upside potential for a short term setup. 
Downside - bottom of range around 6670 offers good RR for 3 point risk. 
Plus the added potential that if it did break it could easily go to 6625. 

On it's own, the pattern isn't outstandingly bearish.


----------



## tech/a

CanOz said:


> This is something that I've wanted to do another video on, bracket orders. Is this what you are using Tech?




Yes


----------



## tech/a

ThingyMajiggy said:


> Can you explain to me why that is bearish? You mention that is has lower highs, but it also has higher lows? What makes that triangle a bearish indicator? Looks like it could go either way to me?




The top of the range was 710 ish.
Resistance held. If the top was taken out I expected a spike as Shorts closed.
So The triangle I would have seen as bearish.---a continuation of the resistance.
I was asleep!

My view.


----------



## ThingyMajiggy

tech/a said:


> The top of the range was 710 ish.
> Resistance held. If the top was taken out I expected a spike as Shorts closed.
> So The triangle I would have seen as bearish.---a continuation of the resistance.
> I was asleep!
> 
> My view.




Makes sense  Can't see the top of the range in the screenshot


----------



## Caveroute

tech/a said:


> The top of the range was 710 ish.
> Resistance held. If the top was taken out I expected a spike as Shorts closed.
> So The triangle I would have seen as bearish.---a continuation of the resistance.
> I was asleep!
> 
> My view.




Uhm, forgetting the triangle for the minute. 

The short is off a trend line that's part of a spike and channel pattern.

The trend channel line is clearly marked and the move ends there, with a wedge [several concurrent wedges in fact] and a strong bull reversal bar. 

You then get 2 legged measured move to the resistance at top of the range  at ~6710, give or take.

Followed by another TL break, lower high retest and off we go southwards at  a clear l2, lower high. 

My view.


----------



## tech/a

> My view




A good one.

Glad I'm short!


----------



## CanOz

pavilion103 said:


> With IB do you have to set this up PRIOR to executing the original trade?
> 
> I.e. With an entry, a stop and a profit taking order?




Try this Pav...Will start a new Thread on IB Vids too.

[video=youtube_share;7hYDZXymRwc]http://youtu.be/7hYDZXymRwc[/video]


----------



## pavilion103

CanOz said:


> Try this Pav...Will start a new Thread on IB Vids too.  Video Link: http://youtu.be/7hYDZXymRwc




I'll check it out. Thanks


----------



## Caveroute

Hitler Parodies - Adolf Hitler scalping Euro-Bund Futures,  Order Flow .....

If your offended by bad language / dark humour then please skip this.


https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ypZb9bgLKBA


----------



## pavilion103

I know we are all 100% traders in hindsight, but some food for thought. 

Just my trading notes.


----------



## Caveroute

comparing notes --


----------



## pavilion103

FTSE

Price back up at around the resistance level. 

Let's see how price responds.


----------



## tech/a

Caveroute said:


> comparing notes --




Now if you could mark one of those up going forward 
IE real-time
Right hand of page That would be excellent.

While we are on that---any thoughts on PAV's right of page observation? 



> FTSE
> 
> Price back up at around the resistance level.


----------



## ThingyMajiggy

Break higher I'd imagine with the way we've had higher lows and the strong lead from the US last night, that's my punt anyway, break of resistance by the end of session


----------



## Caveroute

Well its heading for new highs, various resistance points above. 

Right now it's in a spike and channel off the 6685 low.

They often end in 3 pushes and some sort of reversal pattern, where they go into a TR back to the bottom of the channel or the bottom of the spike. 

Lets see how it pans out.


----------



## Caveroute

Just to clarify things - i'm  still trying to learn this stuff - and if you cannot see things looking back you will never see them looking forwards. 

i'm not suggesting for a second that I'm taking all these trades, but they are all candidates identifiable in real time if you know what to look for. 

The video game !

There are several blogs on the ES that cover this stuff, but none on the FSTE that I'm aware of.


----------



## tech/a

Caveroute said:


> Just to clarify things - i'm  still trying to learn this stuff - and if you cannot see things looking back you will never see them looking forwards.
> 
> i'm not suggesting for a second that I'm taking all these trades, but they are all candidates identifiable in real time if you know what to look for.
> 
> The video game !
> 
> There are several blogs on the ES that cover this stuff, but none on the FSTE that I'm aware of.
> View attachment 56324




Well
Your doing very well


----------



## pavilion103

LONG entry near open. 

Stop to BE in 1 bar. 

Want to leave stop here (learn my lesson) unless:
1) major pivot low
2) signs of supply


----------



## ThingyMajiggy

Can someone tell me what flippin data source they're using (other than IB) to access FTSE futs? The stupid exchange system they have is confusing, NYSE, NYSE EURONEXT, LIFFE, LIFFE EQUITIES, LIFFE COMMODS etc etc. Customer support for most data suppliers is worse than having a chimp guess which exchange. 

P.S - Here we go with the break higher


----------



## tech/a

This has never happened before.

Long DAX
Placed a market sell order and its been held ---monitored (In Blue) for 15 min.
Relogged in and it still wont do me!!

Any Ideas

Ive taken a screen shot incase I cant solve it

Should just close


----------



## Caveroute

ThingyMajiggy said:


> Can someone tell me what flippin data source they're using (other than IB) to access FTSE futs? The stupid exchange system they have is confusing, NYSE, NYSE EURONEXT, LIFFE, LIFFE EQUITIES, LIFFE COMMODS etc etc. Customer support for most data suppliers is worse than having a chimp guess which exchange.
> 
> P.S - Here we go with the break higher




AMP/CQG from the LIFFE exch.


----------



## tech/a

tech/a said:


> This has never happened before.
> 
> Long DAX
> Placed a market sell order and its been held ---monitored (In Blue) for 15 min.
> Relogged in and it still wont do me!!
> 
> Any Ideas
> 
> Ive taken a screen shot incase I cant solve it
> 
> Should just close
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> View attachment 56329




Rang US desk and they closed it
No real damage


----------



## pavilion103

Taken out BE


----------



## kid hustlr

Oh my god Pav


----------



## pavilion103

HOLY CRAP!!!!

WTF

I was taken out by 1 TICK!!!!!

What is worse.......
I had my original stop at 29
I moved it to 29.5 to cover brokerage (about 30 mins later)

Haha. 
Not only do I miss a 45 point move but I miss it as price breaks out of a consolidation on the daily chart.


----------



## pavilion103

The ultimate irony.

Cursing myself recently for moving my stop from BE too early.
I move it one lousy tick in an area where there was no major support and price had already moved 20 points or so in my favour.

And I get stopped to the tick....

Back on tonight and I'll look for a long probably. 

Still taking the positive attitude that I'm happy I can identify these trades and minimize risk. On a luckier day I'd still be in. That's trading I guess!


----------



## ThingyMajiggy

ThingyMajiggy said:


> Break higher I'd imagine with the way we've had higher lows and the strong lead from the US last night, that's my punt anyway, break of resistance by the end of session




Naiillllledddd it, took my 10K demo CMC account and got it to 22.5K overnight by longing FTSE, SIM GOD right here lol, ahhhhhhhhhhhhhhh I suck.


----------



## pavilion103

ThingyMajiggy said:


> Naiillllledddd it, took my 10K demo CMC account and got it to 22.5K overnight by longing FTSE, SIM GOD right here lol, ahhhhhhhhhhhhhhh I suck.




Huh?

Wow. Hopefully when you're trading real money you can double your account every day too.

After the first month you would have made about $5.25 billion.

Maybe enough to retire on!


----------



## tech/a

ThingyMajiggy said:


> Naiillllledddd it, took my 10K demo CMC account and got it to 22.5K overnight by longing FTSE, SIM GOD right here lol, ahhhhhhhhhhhhhhh I suck.




CFD's


----------



## ThingyMajiggy

pavilion103 said:


> Huh?
> 
> Wow. Hopefully when you're trading real money you can double your account every day too.
> 
> After the first month you would have made about $5.25 billion.
> 
> Maybe enough to retire on!




Haha yeah was using CFD's, I actually just wanted to see the FTSE data and can't seem to find which one it is from Kinetick(they think I already have it but it doesn't move live on the chart) so thought I'd whip up a quick demo account with CMC and have a punt on my FTSE view. Would be nuts to trade like that with a real account. Just funny how it always goes your way and things work out perfectly when it's sim, then fail miserably when it's live and nothing goes right


----------



## CanOz

ThingyMajiggy said:


> Haha yeah was using CFD's, I actually just wanted to see the FTSE data and can't seem to find which one it is from Kinetick(they think I already have it but it doesn't move live on the chart) so thought I'd whip up a quick demo account with CMC and have a punt on my FTSE view. Would be nuts to trade like that with a real account. Just funny how it always goes your way and things work out perfectly when it's sim, then fail miserably when it's live and nothing goes right




Sam, the FTSE contract should be LF 03-14 (LIFFE)...


----------



## ThingyMajiggy

CanOz said:


> Sam, the FTSE contract should be LF 03-14 (LIFFE)...




Yeah that's all good in Ninjatrader, just add "Z" to the instrument list, my problem is which exchange to select on the kinetick website to get data for it, there are a few and it's a little confusing, I emailed them last night and they reckon that I have it(level 1 as NO ONE seems to do level 2/market depth for it) but it's not live on the chart when I tried to load it up in NT, just sits there.


----------



## CanOz

ThingyMajiggy said:


> Yeah that's all good in Ninjatrader, just add "Z" to the instrument list, my problem is which exchange to select on the kinetick website to get data for it, there are a few and it's a little confusing, I emailed them last night and they reckon that I have it(level 1 as NO ONE seems to do level 2/market depth for it) but it's not live on the chart when I tried to load it up in NT, just sits there.




I can get Level II with AMP...will check with the Jigsaw group and see if they can get it with Kinetic and what exchange and session tmpl they're using....


----------



## ThingyMajiggy

CanOz said:


> I can get Level II with AMP...will check with the Jigsaw group and see if they can get it with Kinetic and what exchange and session tmpl they're using....




Yeah that with a live account? Should open an AMP account actually, they're quite good. I doubt Pete would have it, seems to be possible on a live account, IB and AMP obviously have it, but most of the data suppliers, Kinetick and eSignal both don't have market depth for FTSE, same with HSI, bit of a bugger. I'm all sorted within NT, that's the easy part, just need the right exchange in my Kinetick subscription, which they think I have now so will see tonight when FTSE opens...........and market depth but I've given up on that from any data suppliers, looks like I'll need to open an account with said broker to get that.


----------



## CanOz

ThingyMajiggy said:


> Yeah that with a live account? Should open an AMP account actually, they're quite good. I doubt Pete would have it, seems to be possible on a live account, IB and AMP obviously have it, but most of the data suppliers, Kinetick and eSignal both don't have market depth for FTSE, same with HSI, bit of a bugger. I'm all sorted within NT, that's the easy part, just need the right exchange in my Kinetick subscription, which they think I have now so will see tonight when FTSE opens...........and market depth but I've given up on that from any data suppliers, looks like I'll need to open an account with said broker to get that.




Yes Live account, i get you now...


----------



## pavilion103

Tonight. 

I'm thinking long. 

I will look for

1) Price to pullback on open and enter on this pullback. 

OR

2) If it starts trending up immeidatley, then look for a mini consolidation to enter on. 




But only if the setup is a good, low risk one.


----------



## ThingyMajiggy

ThingyMajiggy said:


> Just funny how it always goes your way and things work out perfectly when it's sim...




See what I mean


----------



## Caveroute

Currently short @6774.5 on the FTSe - second entry short at close/high  of yesterday.

Was going to exit at MM on 6659 as we are in a TR but with gaps in each leg, it may go further.  

Swing Stop currently at 6765/


----------



## pavilion103

I've posted some of my good setups on here, only fair that I post this. 

A bit embarrassed to post this. 

This really does show the benefit of a good psychology. I was on tilt from missing last nights move and tonight down about 12 points. 

Time to turn off the laptop before I lose more. 

Lucky I stopped here.


----------



## Caveroute

Caveroute said:


> Currently short @6774.5 on the FTSe - second entry short at close/high  of yesterday.
> 
> Was going to exit at MM on 6659 as we are in a TR but with gaps in each leg, it may go further.
> 
> Swing Stop currently at 6765/




I was right the first time - out for 6765.


----------



## tech/a

Really strong moves like yesterday tend to have a pause day 
Next session.
Tight range low volume will normally see a strong move in the 
Direction of the trend.

Not trading today too bloody hot.


----------



## kid hustlr

tech/a said:


> Really strong moves like yesterday tend to have a pause day
> Next session.
> Tight range low volume will normally see a strong move in the
> Direction of the trend.
> 
> Not trading today too bloody hot.




This was my thoughts on y/d as well. the inital couple of bars on rubbish volume led me to think it was doubtful we would have another strong 'money flow' type trend day in one direction.

that and i was very tired!


----------



## Trembling Hand

pavilion103 said:


> This really does show the benefit of a good psychology. I was on tilt from missing last nights move and tonight down about 12 points.




Pav before you jump onto another index you should really sort out its individual idiosyncrasies. Today on the HSI is a classic example of the schizo nature of the beast. 

Last few days its been good trading doing about 200 tick daily range and today looked a bit quite then booom. basically 400 ticks in what was just 4-5 5 min bars. Now as a bright eyed futs trader such as yourself you probally just think thats oppertunity. Trust me if you are not practised and recognise it its complete danger and the perfect setup for trading on tilt......... (been there done it 100 times  )


----------



## Newt

pavilion103 said:


> I've posted some of my good setups on here, only fair that I post this.
> 
> A bit embarrassed to post this.
> 
> This really does show the benefit of a good psychology. I was on tilt from missing last nights move and tonight down about 12 points.
> 
> Time to turn off the laptop before I lose more.
> 
> Lucky I stopped here.





Thanks for being honest and posting this Pav.  Its actually very informative for mega-newbies (like moi) to see and hear about you entering with wrong mindset, and the experienced traders commenting on chop.  I've been demo trading the DAX every night this week and getting a swell head.  Last night seemed different from the start and couldn't put my finger on it.  Now realise price movement Thur night was very minimal with green and red bars interchanged all over the place.  Scale spacing on my NT chart is usually 5 ticks and last night was 2.  To make it worse didn't trade clear reversals or breakouts but punts which failed in every case.  Smashed up in the chop and learned even with 3pt stops you can pretty quickly damage an account in a single night  

Question for the DAX gurus.  I noticed the action seems to occur historically around 0600hrs UTC (Frankfurt open?), 1000hrs (London?) and around midnight (US?).  Am I dreaming, or are those the times external markets start to have an effect and drives moves?


----------



## tech/a

Newt said:


> Thanks for being honest and posting this Pav.  Its actually very informative for mega-newbies (like moi) to see and hear about you entering with wrong mindset, and the experienced traders commenting on chop.  I've been demo trading the DAX every night this week and getting a swell head.  Last night seemed different from the start and couldn't put my finger on it.  Now realise price movement Thur night was very minimal with green and red bars interchanged all over the place.  Scale spacing on my NT chart is usually 5 ticks and last night was 2.  To make it worse didn't trade clear reversals or breakouts but punts which failed in every case.  Smashed up in the chop and learned even with 3pt stops you can pretty quickly damage an account in a single night
> 
> Question for the DAX gurus.  I noticed the action seems to occur historically around 0600hrs UTC (Frankfurt open?), 1000hrs (London?) and around midnight (US?).  Am I dreaming, or are those the times external markets start to have an effect and drives moves?




Can happen any time. But those times you mentioned are the most common.
Stops like stocks you'll get smashed.
You need to b able to 1 click trade if you cant get on Momentum perfectly.
If its ranging around you'll just get whipsawed.


----------



## tech/a

Not perfect as its not really close to resistance but
worth a considered look.
Can really minimize risk.


----------



## Newt

Thanks Tech.  Those sorts of plays are priceless.  I wouldn't pick that up from the chart myself.  Will do some playing with it.

Was long DAX at just after 10pm (1000hrs UTC) tonight when it dropped 25 points in a heartbeat.  Another lesson.  Big moves looks juicy with 20/20 hindsight, but bit paralysing when you're surfing in the Wrong Direction!  

I guess like news report times, not always good to have a position when markets are transitioning around overseas openings....


----------



## tech/a

tech/a said:


> Not perfect as its not really close to resistance but
> worth a considered look.
> Can really minimize risk.




Then----That was brutal!
Hit resistance then ---


----------



## kid hustlr

That's one of the best slam downs I've seen.

Tech,

I feel as though the first set up you marked on the chart is more appealing than the second based on where the consolidation/triangle pattern formed. Would you agree?


----------



## tech/a

kid hustlr said:


> That's one of the best slam downs I've seen.
> 
> Tech,
> 
> I feel as though the first set up you marked on the chart is more appealing than the second based on where the consolidation/triangle pattern formed. Would you agree?




Yes.
As I said close to resistance and this is where a trade makes or breaks its status.
Well and truly broke the bullish sentiment.

There were 8900 contracts traded in 9 min
I feel this is a turning point lower.
(impulse move)

Had a trade on the FTSE overnight and was in a small loss
when I woke up so closed out over the weekend.
Looking for this to be a high.


----------



## kid hustlr

tech/a said:


> Yes.
> As I said close to resistance and this is where a trade makes or breaks its status.
> Well and truly broke the bullish sentiment.
> 
> There were 8900 contracts traded in 9 min
> I feel this is a turning point lower.
> (impulse move)
> 
> Had a trade on the FTSE overnight and was in a small loss
> when I woke up so closed out over the weekend.
> Looking for this to be a high.




I haven't had a close look at last night but before last night I was still leaning towards more upside potential. That being said I'm a day behind the times which can be a lot in this game.


----------



## tech/a

kid hustlr said:


> I haven't had a close look at last night but before last night I was still leaning towards more upside potential. That being said I'm a day behind the times which can be a lot in this game.




Me too but that high and it's rejection which was pretty emphatic
Needs to be considered.


----------



## Newt

It can't hurt for ASX position traders to keep an eye on these sorts of futures gyrations to help build up the big picture.  Its interesting how the 3 big moves (one up, 2 down) in the Dax last night happened within about 10mins after the hour at 1000hrs UTC, 1200hrs, 13000hrs.

Actually, 0800hrs as well - 4 big move regions.


----------



## pavilion103

This will be interesting. I see in out of hour trading price is up above 6800. 

I'm hoping to get an entry around 6780-85 if it pulls back and then see if it breaks above. 

Will wait and see how it plays out!


----------



## pavilion103

Nothing too exciting this week so far. 

I've begun to take more positions using limit orders as price pulls back to a support/resistance. 

The setups require:
1) A well defined consolidation with a low/high that is well defined and thus 'safe' to put a stop there
2) This occurs at a previous support/resistance area.
3) Only a small risk - say 1.5-3 points. If I can't get in with a risk this small I don't take it. 

I've taken 2 positions like this in the past 2 days with both stopped out to the exact tick!

The short. I had the stop 1 tick above the previous high and it was taken out
The long. I had the stop 2 ticks below the previous low and it was taken out. 

I've seen it often occur where the stop is taken out by a tick or two (to trap breakout traders?). 

I think these can be high RR oppotunities, particularly if I can get in for a 1 or 2 point risk. 
Would probably want potential for at least a 15 point move. Maybe 20 to really make it worth it, depending on the winning % of these setups.


----------



## pavilion103

A nice one tonight. 
Shorting from resistance.


----------



## kid hustlr

Interested in getting some thoughts from the more experienced traders on the chart below.




I've posted a little bit of commentary and thoughts on the chart.

It never ceases to amaze me:

1. how easy things are when you look at them with hindsight
2. how often things repeat themselves _if you understand why_

This '3 hits to a high/3 hits to a low' pattern seems to happen so often. *T/H*, you first mentioned this one a while back (thank you), do you ever notice in confirming volume factors (Like a big volume spike at the end of the '3rd push' or do you find you can mainly see it in the price action + depth and give little credence to volume?

Secondly, and this is just mainly musings for myself. I've been taught to trade in a scalping manner whereas if the trade goes against me then immediately get out. I think the next step for my trading is recognising some trades don't go my immediately and I need to TRUST my instincts + trade. I think I've struggled a little on the FTSE because even having a trade go 2-3 points against me is something I'm not used to. In the bonds as well I need to build a bigger playbook than just scalping and this will all come in time.

The hardest thing with trading for me right now is trusting myself and trusting my instincts. Always need to work on the pull the trigger syndrome, its something I'm working but I need to improve.


----------



## tech/a

kid hustlr said:


> Interested in getting some thoughts from the more experienced traders on the chart below.
> 
> View attachment 56482
> 
> 
> I've posted a little bit of commentary and thoughts on the chart.
> 
> It never ceases to amaze me:
> 
> 1. how easy things are when you look at them with hindsight
> 2. how often things repeat themselves _if you understand why_
> 
> This '3 hits to a high/3 hits to a low' pattern seems to happen so often. *T/H*, you first mentioned this one a while back (thank you), do you ever notice in confirming volume factors (Like a big volume spike at the end of the '3rd push' or do you find you can mainly see it in the price action + depth and give little credence to volume?
> 
> Secondly, and this is just mainly musings for myself. I've been taught to trade in a scalping manner whereas if the trade goes against me then immediately get out. I think the next step for my trading is recognising some trades don't go my immediately and I need to TRUST my instincts + trade. I think I've struggled a little on the FTSE because even having a trade go 2-3 points against me is something I'm not used to. In the bonds as well I need to build a bigger playbook than just scalping and this will all come in time.
> 
> The hardest thing with trading for me right now is trusting myself and trusting my instincts. Always need to work on the pull the trigger syndrome, its something I'm working but I need to improve.




Have some comments later but what timeframe is this.
Not that it matters but want to look at the chart in Various frames.


----------



## kid hustlr

tech/a said:


> Have some comments later but what timeframe is this.
> Not that it matters but want to look at the chart in Various frames.




Apologies duckman, aussie 10 year futures 15 min.

Just felt it was a 'good' chart for me to highlight a few concepts I'm trying to work on.


----------



## pavilion103

A nice short again. 
3 point risk. 
Can't ask for much more. 




- - - Updated - - -

Considering a short if I get a low risk setup that I think looks good.


----------



## pavilion103

No short. going to bed. 
A couple of good days back to back. 

I'll be back next Monday.


----------



## pavilion103

Smashed through the 6760 support level!

I wanted that short setup but just couldn't get one that satisfied me. Happy I didn't take on a big risk and then have my stupidity validated by it making me a lucky 50 points.

Won't be on tongiht. Wonder if it will be another big day or not. I'll be back Monday and Tuesday. 
It sucks when only trading 3 nights a week (other commitments). 

Can't wait until daylight savings ends and the UK one begins. 
4:30pm start is right when I get home. 
Can get on the first couple of hours of every night!


----------



## pavilion103

What an absolute shocking day to have missed. 

I just knew this exact setup would occur. 
Without doubt would be up 80 points!!!!

Painful to see it pan out exactly as expected. 

Was hoping the market would hold off on a fall like this until Monday!


----------



## pavilion103

Just made two long trades at the 6640-50 support level which is one that was hit a lot a couple of weeks back. 

Trade 1 = 1.8 point loss

Trade 2 = 14.7 point win


Had to take profit on trade 2 unfortunately as it's past 12am and I didn't even intend on coming on tonight at all. Early start tomorrow too!

Sucks because I wanted to hold this one for another hour or two and see how it plays out. Better to just take it and go to bed now because I'm exhausted. 


That missed short was costly (nothing I could do about it though). 
But glad to pick up some more points to add to the weekly tally. 
Last 3 nights something like + 15, + 19, + 13 I think. 
47 points. 

Would have loved to have cashed in tonight with another 70 or 80!!! Grateful for what I have though.


----------



## pavilion103

To be honest no one seems to give a toss in here. 

I'm not sure if there is much point in me posting up constant analysis if there is no critical discussion around it. Feedback and discussion is my primary motivation for posting.

A huge couple of days on the markets, plenty to get excited about and no one really cares in here. If there isn't any enthusiasm what's the point?

Not having a go at anyone. Just thinking maybe it's best not to waste my time or others' if there is no interest. I guess the reason for my annoyance at the lack of enthusiasm is because of the high level of enthusiasm and excitement that I have at present.

If anyone wants to PM me to bounce ideas or thinks that there is value in what I'm doing in here, I'm happy to discuss....


----------



## cynic

pavilion103 said:


> To be honest no one seems to give a toss in here.
> 
> I'm not sure if there is much point in me posting up constant analysis if there is no critical discussion around it. Feedback and discussion is my primary motivation for posting.
> 
> A huge couple of days on the markets, plenty to get excited about and no one really cares in here. If there isn't any enthusiasm what's the point?
> 
> Not having a go at anyone. Just thinking maybe it's best not to waste my time or others' if there is no interest. I guess the reason for my annoyance at the lack of enthusiasm is because of the high level of enthusiasm and excitement that I have at present.
> 
> If anyone wants to PM me to bounce ideas or thinks that there is value in what I'm doing in here, I'm happy to discuss....




Pav,

You might want to consider the number of views before abandoning this thread.

Although many participants aren't actively providing feedback, it's clear that there's some interest in this thread.


----------



## MichaelD

pavilion103 said:


> I'm not sure if there is much point in me posting up constant analysis if there is no critical discussion around it. Feedback and discussion is my primary motivation for posting.
> 
> A huge couple of days on the markets, plenty to get excited about and no one really cares in here. If there isn't any enthusiasm what's the point?
> 
> Not having a go at anyone. Just thinking maybe it's best not to waste my time or others' if there is no interest. I guess the reason for my annoyance at the lack of enthusiasm is because of the high level of enthusiasm and excitement that I have at present.




FWIW, here's my nett trading this year so far.

Week 1: made very little (0.6%)
Weeks 2 & 3: much better weeks (4.7% + 3.6%)

That % is my drawings from my trading capital (i.e. my wages as a % of my trading capital).


The last few days of trading have been very profitable on the short side, and next week should indeed prove to be very interesting indeed.


Here's the thing, though. Most likely the response to the above from the usual suspects will be;
"no proof"
"retrospective"
"don't believe it"
"trading competition"
"show me your broker statements"
"call your trades in advance"


My answers to the above (which also explains why I rarely choose to post):
 - My trading results matter to only 2 people; myself and my wife.
 - I do not need validation from anyone else.
 - I don't need to be distracted when I'm busy managing risk. I make errors and suboptimal decisions. That leads to less profit.
 - I do not want to be influenced by anyone else when trading. That will result in errors and thus less profit.
 - I don't want to share the way I trade. It's right for *me*, no one else.



Now perhaps some introspective questions are in order.

1. Why do you need other people's confirmation of what you are doing?

2. Will your current great enthusiasm result in you taking excessive risk or trades that you wouldn't otherwise take?


----------



## pavilion103

The idea isn't about posting results or returns.

It is about getting 'feel good' affirmations, validation or pats on the back.

It's about discussing strategies and setups and any other thoughts so that we can compare notes. It's about offering different perspectives or maybe similar ones.

If people don't want to post then that's cool. I just feel that earlier in the thread I was getting more useful advice and it helped. Now there doesn't seem to be too much interest in terms of posting and feedback.

I do hope viewers are at least getting something from it.


Why do people always think enthusiasm will lead to dumb trading? It's always the first response!
Maybe it does for most. I don't know. 
What it does for me is gives me the motivation to study study study! Review review review! Continue to read and learn even when it seems boring. If I didn't have a passion for this I wouldn't be here.


----------



## ThingyMajiggy

pavilion103 said:


> The idea isn't about posting results or returns.
> 
> It is about getting 'feel good' affirmations, validation or pats on the back.
> 
> It's about discussing strategies and setups and any other thoughts so that we can compare notes. It's about offering different perspectives or maybe similar ones.
> 
> If people don't want to post then that's cool. I just feel that earlier in the thread I was getting more useful advice and it helped. Now there doesn't seem to be too much interest in terms of posting and feedback.
> 
> I do hope viewers are at least getting something from it.
> 
> 
> Why do people always think enthusiasm will lead to dumb trading? It's always the first response!
> Maybe it does for most. I don't know.
> What it does for me is gives me the motivation to study study study! Review review review! Continue to read and learn even when it seems boring. If I didn't have a passion for this I wouldn't be here.




I always check here pav when I see there is a new post, something that would make it better in my opinion would be to get more visual, you're just talking about numbers and not posting any charts or writing your thoughts on a chart so we can see what you're referring to. Makes it a little harder to follow and get a grasp of the context when it's just a post talking about a certain number. 

I would love to have more discussion too, but I feel I don't know poo from clay when the likes of tech/a and TH are roaming the corridors  I just get back in my place for fear of saying something someone thinks is stupid and getting attacked for it.


----------



## Newt

Hi Pav

I'm another one in Sam's boat.  Have been reading your thread religiously when new posts come up for a few months, but honestly my futures and short term trading is bad enough you could reliably make more reversing my trades.  The angles that came up in here are invaluable and many would be sad to see this one hit the archives.      

I'll try to contribute if I ever come up with decent thoughts.  You really seem to be confirming in this thread the _huge_ insight available from experienced traders on different techniques.  Instead of getting discouraged trying 100 things where 99 fail you can spend more time playing with a much small number of techniques that seem to work for others and figure out if they work for you.

Anyhow, don't give up on this.  Sounds like you've been short on time to trade night futures lately and that might be compounding your frustration?  Hoping you (and others) keep getting time and feel the inclination to trade and post about futures......

Rob


----------



## MichaelD

pavilion103 said:


> It is about getting 'feel good' affirmations, validation or pats on the back.
> 
> It's about discussing strategies and setups and any other thoughts so that we can compare notes. It's about offering different perspectives or maybe similar ones.
> 
> Why do people always think enthusiasm will lead to dumb trading?




Affirmations and validations won't make you money. Stumbled across this thread here which tells it like it is;

https://www.aussiestockforums.com/forums/showthread.php?t=26564

The setup & entry is the least important part of the trade. Knowing what to do (and doing it without hesitation) when the trade goes sour is what makes the actual money.

Enthusiasm = "this trade is a sure thing" = lose money. Almost all of my "sure thing" trades don't make money. The ones that make the most money are the ones where my emotions are screaming at me to do one thing and I do the opposite.


----------



## pavilion103

MichaelD said:


> Affirmations and validations won't make you money. Stumbled across this thread here which tells it like it is;
> 
> https://www.aussiestockforums.com/forums/showthread.php?t=26564
> 
> The setup & entry is the least important part of the trade. Knowing what to do (and doing it without hesitation) when the trade goes sour is what makes the actual money.
> 
> Enthusiasm = "this trade is a sure thing" = lose money. Almost all of my "sure thing" trades don't make money. The ones that make the most money are the ones where my emotions are screaming at me to do one thing and I do the opposite.




Sorry typo. I meant it's *NOT* about validation. 

I would argue that entry and setup is quite important. Particularly with this FTSE trading, to identify areas with strong RR potential and knowing when to add size to take advantage of high RR opportunities.

You need to know what to do when 1) The trade goes sour 2) when you are in profit
But you should know all this before entering the trade in the first place. 

Enthusiasm doesn't = "this trade is a sure thing" 
Why do people think that?
Enthusiasm for me = I'm excited about trading. I'm going to work as hard as I need to, be as teachable as I need to, be as disciplined as I need to to make this thing work! (because I see the bigger picture ahead). 

People get too carried away with the whole psychology and emotional side of things. 
Have good setups in your playbook. Know them inside out. Know when there is high RR. 
Have a good exit plan (when losing and when in profit).
When I see a good trade my emotions are usually telling me "This is the setup you've identified many times before and has been highly profitable. You've spent hours and hours working on it, you know this is good RR, you know exactly how you will manage this trade. You know exactly what reasons you will use to exit. TAKE IT"


----------



## MichaelD

pavilion103 said:


> I would argue that entry and setup is quite important.




Personally, I disagree. Lots of people are looking at the same "entries and setups" which when it comes down to it are little more than random numbers. Random numbers make patterns if you watch them long enough.

Buy when the market is going up. Sell when it is going down. Simple.

The instant I threw setups and entries out the window and totally switched to trade management for my edge was the instant my equity curve changed from flat to consistently uptrending.



pavilion103 said:


> You need to know what to do when 1) The trade goes sour 2) when you are in profit
> But you should know all this before entering the trade in the first place.
> 
> Have a good exit plan (when losing and when in profit).




Totally agree with this. It is *this* that makes the money, not the setup and entry.



pavilion103 said:


> People get too carried away with the whole psychology and emotional side of things.



Again, I disagree. You've been generous with your honesty in posting bad trades as well as good ones. Where did your bad trades originate? My bad ones come from overconfidence leading to larger position sizes than I would prefer. Still working on that.

I'll leave you with one further thought. Limit Orders seem popular. To me, they don't make sense at all. The market is telling you that you are wrong with your entry.


----------



## MichaelD

ps forgot the #1 piece of advice.

Ignore everything that is said in Internet forums and work out what works for *you* and is consistently profitable. Then keep doing it ad infinitum.


----------



## IFocus

MichaelD said:


> ps forgot the #1 piece of advice.
> 
> Ignore everything that is said in Internet forums and work out what works for *you* and is consistently profitable. Then keep doing it ad infinitum.





Really great to see you back Michael.


----------



## CanOz

IFocus said:


> Really great to see you back Michael.




Yup...ditto


----------



## DrapSnagon

Been there, done that.

Hello all. I've skimmed this thread, and was struck by the thought that although it's a year old, the most recent contributions are some of the most valuable and insightful.

MichaelID has absolutely nailed it, and Newt (perhaps without realising?) has also introduced a critical issue:- the time to trade.

I switched from stocks to futures in 2001/02, and made a living from this for about eight years, having lived through the insane times pre-tech-wreck, and having the privilege of watching the 1987 crash unfold in real time. I've now "switched back to stocks", and have no regrets about either decision. They both suited my life goals at the time, and my current work continues to do so.

During my time with futures, I was perhaps the most boring person in the country. I stuck to two very simple policies:-


Trade only _index_ futures, and
Employ the same tactics that brokers use for ticket-clipping.

The former is self-explanatory. The second perhaps needs expanding ...

The broking arms of "brokers" (however you define them nowadays) make their money from skimming a few bucks off the top of ANY trade made by clients. Sure, some of them trade on their house accounts or profit from making markets in various instruments, or book revenue from underwriting or other activities or whatever, but the bread and butter comes from brokerage fees. Apologies for patronising any of you who instantly understood what I meant in the first place, but this skim is known as ticket-clipping.

The theme is "lots of tiny amounts add up to something worthwhile". In another age, we might say "watch the pennies and the pounds will take care of themselves". LOL (No, I'm not actually that old)

My adaptation of this principle was to make lots and lots of tiny gains from LOTS and LOTS of low-risk futures trades, such that the total ended up being a little bit more than the tiny losses from those that didn't work out. Multiply that equation by a significant capital base, and you have a business model not unlike the stockbrokers themselves, sacrificing only some risk premium.

It involved trading the US indices and SPI overnight, because as somebody pointed out above, this (in those days) was what drove our ASX in the morning, and apart from precious few exceptions, that 10am position for the SPI more often than not described something close to the 4pm position of the XJO. Mean reversion.

[Hence my honourable mention of Newt's contribution]. If you can't afford the time to watch the overseas market overnight, there is no way imho you can reliably profit from index futures trading in Australia. It just turns into punting on direction during the few hours our market is open and everything else is closed, and that's not a whole level of sophistication above buying Keno tickets.

The key elements for success in this strategy were twofold:-


Money Management. Having a plan for what you wanted out of each trade and ruthlesslessly executing it, and

Controlling execution costs. The three bits of this problem are transaction fees, the spread and liquidity. Hence my preference for the US indices overnight:- the spreads were tighter and the liquidity more than adequate, neither of which were guaranteed for the SPI during our day. I used a local broker, but one with a 24-hour desk.

Penultimately, I'll offer one more insight that may be of use to somebody. When trading futures, I tried to visualise the whole thing as a video game. Anytime I started to draw a parallel between the numbers on the screen and the price of a nice lunch, my resolve evaporated and I started to worry about what profits and losses meant in the real world. As long as the numbers and charts didn't represent real money in my head, I was fine.

Finally, futures are nothing more than leverage, which by definition means increased risk. if I could have found a vehicle to trade the XJO with a similar cost and risk profile to using the US markets as a proxy, when Australians should be awake, there's no way I would have stayed up overnight for all those years. 

If you want to go down that route, be sure you're 100% aware of, and committed to, the work involved Otherwise, futures trading will just be a way of accelerating your losses. 

This post is a bit of an experiment:- it's my first one here. Just trying to see how the whole thing works at present. Apologies for the rubbish formatting - I haven't worked that out yet.

Snap.


----------



## barney

DrapSnagon said:


> the most recent contributions are some of the most valuable and insightful.
> 
> Snap.





Welcome Snap.  Always good to get input from those that have walked the walk


----------



## pavilion103

Surprised by a few different people popping up. 
Didn't realise that so many were following the thread. 

I guess it may still be beneficial to post up some charts and analysis. 
I do them after every trade anyway so not too much effort posting it up. 
We'll see where it goes!


----------



## Caveroute

pavilion103 said:


> Surprised by a few different people popping up.
> Didn't realise that so many were following the thread.
> 
> I guess it may still be beneficial to post up some charts and analysis.
> I do them after every trade anyway so not too much effort posting it up.
> We'll see where it goes!




Did you get the Fbo/trap/OD 3 min bar on the open that led to great riches ?


----------



## MichaelD

pavilion103 said:


> A huge couple of days on the markets, plenty to get excited about and no one really cares in here. If there isn't any enthusiasm what's the point?
> 
> ...the reason for my annoyance at the lack of enthusiasm is because of the high level of enthusiasm and excitement that I have at present.




A very interesting start to the week indeed. Had a rare thing happen over the last couple of hours.

All my emotions were screaming at me to stay short, and telling me that anything other than short was insanely stupid given how awful things looked on Friday and that staying short was "a sure thing".

Accordingly, I closed the vast majority of my short positions (nicely profitable).

Will be interesting to see how this pans out. My emotions continue to berate me for closing out, which is a very good sign.


----------



## CanOz

MichaelD said:


> A very interesting start to the week indeed. Had a rare thing happen over the last couple of hours.
> 
> All my emotions were screaming at me to stay short, and telling me that anything other than short was insanely stupid given how awful things looked on Friday and that staying short was "a sure thing".
> 
> Accordingly, I closed the vast majority of my short positions (nicely profitable).
> 
> Will be interesting to see how this pans out. My emotions continue to berate me for closing out, which is a very good sign.




looks like longs getting out still...should be some new shorts to squeeze soon...


----------



## Caveroute

MichaelD said:


> A very interesting start to the week indeed. Had a rare thing happen over the last couple of hours.
> 
> All my emotions were screaming at me to stay short, and telling me that anything other than short was insanely stupid given how awful things looked on Friday and that staying short was "a sure thing".
> 
> Accordingly, I closed the vast majority of my short positions (nicely profitable).
> 
> Will be interesting to see how this pans out. My emotions continue to berate me for closing out, which is a very good sign.




Did  I miss a TL break somewhere ?

This is the first sign, before then, it's down and down. 

Emotions ..... you don't need emotions.

Take a look at this ...... poor b'stard

http://ftsedaytrading.blogspot.com.au/2012/07/my-trading-strategy-micro-scalping.html


----------



## lindsayf

MichaelD said:


> Personally, I disagree. Lots of people are looking at the same "entries and setups" which when it comes down to it are little more than random numbers. Random numbers make patterns if you watch them long enough.
> 
> Buy when the market is going up. Sell when it is going down. Simple.
> 
> The instant I threw setups and entries out the window and totally switched to trade management for my edge was the instant my equity curve changed from flat to consistently uptrending.
> 
> .........
> 
> I'll leave you with one further thought. Limit Orders seem popular. To me, they don't make sense at all. The market is telling you that you are wrong with your entry.




Hi Michael
In regard to your post above - is your dislike of limit entries purely to do with your directional assessment?
That is, if the market is rising then buy at market or a breakout but dont enter when the market is falling?
thanks
Lindsay


----------



## pavilion103

Didn't get the open move. 
Didn't have a clear setup. 
Maybe need to develop one for the opens like that. 
Looking to see if this rejects the 6550 here for a second time and then I'll consider a short if the risk is ok.


----------



## Caveroute

pavilion103 said:


> Didn't get the open move.
> Didn't have a clear setup.
> Maybe need to develop one for the opens like that.
> Looking to see if this rejects the 6550 here for a second time and then I'll consider a short if the risk is ok.




Mate, it was an outside down bar at the TL that finished on its low in a run away bear. 

One for the play book I think.


----------



## CanOz

Caveroute said:


> Mate, it was an outside down bar at the TL that finished on its low in a run away bear.
> 
> One for the play book I think.




I get the outside bar, but whats a run away bear?


----------



## pavilion103

Ok I'm on. 
It's moving. 
Now to see how it reacts around 6227 low of the day. 
If it breaks then happy days!

- - - Updated - - -



Caveroute said:


> Mate, it was an outside down bar at the TL that finished on its low in a run away bear.
> 
> One for the play book I think.




To be honest I'm poor on the open. 
First 30-45 mins, I have some great setups. 
Need to develop those plays on the open for sure. I'm the first to admit!


----------



## Caveroute

CanOz said:


> I get the outside bar, but whats a run away bear?




Can, you are joking, right ?

The FTSE, and others, have been in a nose dive for a wee while now.


----------



## CanOz

Caveroute said:


> Can, you are joking, right ?
> 
> The FTSE, and others, have been in a nose dive for a wee while now.




So run away bear refers to a bear market? Sorry, its just new terminology for me...I guess I'm getting old.


----------



## Caveroute

pavilion103 said:


> Ok I'm on.
> It's moving.
> Now to see how it reacts around 6227 low of the day.
> If it breaks then happy days!
> 
> - - - Updated - - -
> 
> 
> 
> To be honest I'm poor on the open.
> First 30-45 mins, I have some great setups.
> Need to develop those plays on the open for sure. I'm the first to admit!




Yep, my last add on was at the l2  short @6544 on the 3 minute.

- - - Updated - - -



CanOz said:


> So run away bear refers to a bear market? Sorry, its just new terminology for me...I guess I'm getting old.




Sorry Can, I'm just trying to say it's going south and has been for a while, and currently there are no signs it will change. That's all.


----------



## CanOz

Two Spreads I'm playing around with intra-day....The DAX_FESX and the ES_NKD.... 

Love the way they move compared with erratic directional index futures...

The Dax on the bottom, you can see it makes many more swings...


----------



## pavilion103

Triangle forming here. 

This is where I'm a little unsure what to do if it breaks lower. 
I want one contract to hold and one to close today. 

I'd like to hold incase this continues going south. 
However this probably isn't a good time to hold a position trade. That was 2 days ago.

Will most likely close this position today if it breaks lower here and gives me a reason to exit after that. 
We'll see. 
It's gotta keep moving first!


----------



## CanOz

I'm long my DAX spread...the markets are looking too short here...looking for a pop higher.


----------



## pavilion103

I took myself out. 
I will wind down before bed now. 
25.5 point win. 

This could well smash lower, but I won't be up much longer!
I'll take the money and run tonight!

3 trades overall
-2.3 points
-1.4 points
+25.5 points
Net +19.5 points


----------



## Caveroute

pavilion103 said:


> Triangle forming here.
> 
> This is where I'm a little unsure what to do if it breaks lower.
> I want one contract to hold and one to close today.
> 
> I'd like to hold incase this continues going south.
> However this probably isn't a good time to hold a position trade. That was 2 days ago.
> 
> Will most likely close this position today if it breaks lower here and gives me a reason to exit after that.
> We'll see.
> It's gotta keep moving first!




There is a higher tri, apex at 6541.

Conventional wisdom states this will be tested and then the trend will continue. 

Lets see, it may not figure at all.


----------



## pavilion103

hmmm... not contemplating a long lol. 
Or should I go to bed!
LOL!

Probably bed, but we'll see!

- - - Updated - - -

and by long, I mean a little pullback/test in an overall bearish looking chart.


----------



## Caveroute

pavilion103 said:


> hmmm... not contemplating a long lol.
> Or should I go to bed!
> LOL!
> 
> Probably bed, but we'll see!
> 
> - - - Updated - - -
> 
> and by long, I mean a little pullback/test in an overall bearish looking chart.




Those that tradeth countertrend  .......................


----------



## pavilion103

Caveroute said:


> Those that tradeth countertrend  .......................




Didn't take it. Stupid idea to have considered it.
RR poor anyway.

Break lower as expected. 
Need to be on multiple contracts!! 
Killing my profit potential with not holding. 
I'm not confident enough yet to hold the single contract. 

Good luck guys!


----------



## CanOz

Caveroute said:


> Those that tradeth countertrend  .......................




The trend is up Cav...has been for months...


----------



## Caveroute

CanOz said:


> The trend is up Cav...has been for months...







Depends on your timeframe my friend.


----------



## CanOz

I'm just stirrin...

Seriously though, watch out for the 'pop' when the shorts get squeeze...


----------



## CanOz

There's your value area its testing....

If it pushes thru 6440 we're in for a bearish spring...


----------



## MichaelD

lindsayf said:


> In regard to your post above - is your dislike of limit entries purely to do with your directional assessment?
> That is, if the market is rising then buy at market or a breakout but dont enter when the market is falling?




Simply put, yes.

Limit orders = buying a falling market or selling a rising market.

I exclusively enter using Stop orders, so I buy into rising markets and sell into falling ones.


----------



## pavilion103

I agree and I don't!
I would never use a limit order for price which is moving with any real conviction in one direction.

I use them near a well established support/resistance, with multiple bars at that level within a tight range, when I feel strongly that price will break to the opposite side of the range. 

It helps me get the lowest risk fill that I can. For example maybe 2 or 3 points (maybe even 1 at rare times) instead of 5.

As a whole though I'd use stop limit orders most of the time.


----------



## MichaelD

pavilion103 said:


> ...limit order...
> 
> I use them near a well established support/resistance, with multiple bars at that level within a tight range, when I feel strongly that price will break to the opposite side of the range.
> 
> It helps me get the lowest risk fill that I can. For example maybe 2 or 3 points (maybe even 1 at rare times) instead of 5.




_"Goddamit market. I'm right & you'd better agree with me REAL SOON now or I'm giving someone else 1, 2 or 3 points."_

At least you don't let yourself stay wrong for very long which is extremely important.

Do you have enough trades entered with limit orders to draw meaningful conclusions yet as to overall R:R ratio & profitability when compared with trades entered with Buy/Sell Stop entries?


----------



## MichaelD

MichaelD said:


> All my emotions were screaming at me to stay short, and telling me that anything other than short was insanely stupid given how awful things looked on Friday and that staying short was "a sure thing".
> 
> Accordingly, I closed the vast majority of my short positions (nicely profitable).




A pleasing outcome came from this, my "Hail Mary" rule which is the one exception to my other essentially mechanical rules.

If I had let the trades go to their natural conclusion, my shorts would have been stopped out by my trailing stop a few hours later for substantially less profit (+7% vs +15%).

The "Hail Mary" rule has proven to date to be an excellent addition to my overall trading strategy.


Subsequent price action saw me get short again. Now the question is:
 - are we now seeing some whopping dead cat bounces before a much larger leg downwards? (seen that before, have rules to manage this scenario)
 - is this the bottom of the current downtrend? (seen that before, have rules to manage this scenario)

Price action no doubt will reveal the truth in due course.


----------



## MichaelD

https://www.aussiestockforums.com/forums/showthread.php?t=27963&p=811304#post811304

The above makes me feel very bullish.

Note: Does not alter the way I trade. Rules is rules.


----------



## Trembling Hand

MichaelD said:


> _"Goddamit market. I'm right & you'd better agree with me REAL SOON now or I'm giving someone else 1, 2 or 3 points."_
> 
> At least you don't let yourself stay wrong for very long which is extremely important.
> 
> Do you have enough trades entered with limit orders to draw meaningful conclusions yet as to overall R:R ratio & profitability when compared with trades entered with Buy/Sell Stop entries?




I couldn't disagree with you more. Buying up trending index futs on a short term basis, especially break out stop orders would have to be the quickest way to the poor house in short term trading ever invented.

There is no right way that covers everything but there is certainly a crap way and that is stop order entries for short term trading. 

If I did that (besides the fact that I don't buy breakouts) it would cost me hundreds of thousands a year.

Lets say 10 trades a day with 10 lots thats 100 contracts at 2 ticks a side (it would actually be more on my market)

100 (contracts per day) * 2(ticks) * $7 (point value)* 2 (buy and a sell) = $2800 for a day lost!!!!!

Times that by 200 trading days...... $560,000 per year for sloppy entry....... :bad:


----------



## ThingyMajiggy

Trembling Hand said:


> 100 (contracts per day) * 2(ticks) * $7 (point value)* 2 (buy and a sell) = $2800 for a day lost!!!!!
> 
> Times that by 200 trading days...... $560,000 per year for sloppy entry....... :bad:




lol....5 stars for dramatization, like you're going to keep doing it for 200 days


----------



## MichaelD

Trembling Hand said:


> I couldn't disagree with you more. Buying up trending index futs on a short term basis, especially break out stop orders would have to be the quickest way to the poor house in short term trading ever invented.
> 
> There is no right way that covers everything but there is certainly a crap way and that is stop order entries for short term trading.




Good to hear a different viewpoint.

Your trading style is very different to mine as my edge is entirely derived from how I manage the trades and has nothing to do with the entry.

The bulk of my profits come on big white and big black candle days, and they come from aggressively pyramiding into a trend. The rest is surviving though the noise of mean reversion. It's fun trading an instrument that "always mean reverts...except when it doesn't".

There are days when I'll complete 20-30 trades. There are days when I'll complete 1-2.


----------



## tech/a

Me

Buy/Sell at market
Bracket Order Stop and Profit stop target (can be beyond expected days range)
Bed.
Not every day either.

If taking short term in an hr. or so that Ill be at the screen
At Market.


----------



## ThingyMajiggy

MichaelD said:


> Good to hear a different viewpoint.
> 
> Your trading style is very different to mine as my edge is entirely derived from how I manage the trades and has nothing to do with the entry..




Interesting, you seem to trade the way that I've wondered how it would go, with not worrying about entry and just purely managing it well, are your entries basically random in that case? What actually makes you enter a trade, or do you just click....then go into management mode?


----------



## Trembling Hand

MichaelD said:


> Good to hear a different viewpoint.
> 
> Your trading style is very different to mine as my edge is entirely derived from how I manage the trades and has nothing to do with the entry.
> 
> The bulk of my profits come on big white and big black candle days, and they come from aggressively pyramiding into a trend. The rest is surviving though the noise of mean reversion. It's fun trading an instrument that "always mean reverts...except when it doesn't".
> 
> There are days when I'll complete 20-30 trades. There are days when I'll complete 1-2.




Oh! I assumed you were trading longer term.  What instrument are you trading?


----------



## MichaelD

ThingyMajiggy said:


> ...are your entries basically random in that case? What actually makes you enter a trade, or do you just click....then go into management mode?




All entries are Buy Stop or Sell Stop orders placed at levels above and below the price action, so they are entered automatically as price moves in the appropriate direction.

The edge is in the initial position sizing, pyramiding and management of the stop as the trade progresses.



Trembling Hand said:


> Oh! I assumed you were trading longer term.  What instrument are you trading?




IG Markets Australia 200 Cash


----------



## cynic

lindsayf said:


> Hi Michael
> In regard to your post above - is your dislike of limit entries purely to do with your directional assessment?
> That is, if the market is rising then buy at market or a breakout but dont enter when the market is falling?
> thanks
> Lindsay






MichaelD said:


> Simply put, yes.
> 
> Limit orders = buying a falling market or selling a rising market.
> 
> I exclusively enter using Stop orders, so I buy into rising markets and sell into falling ones.






MichaelD said:


> _"Goddamit market. I'm right & you'd better agree with me REAL SOON now or I'm giving someone else 1, 2 or 3 points."_
> 
> At least you don't let yourself stay wrong for very long which is extremely important.
> 
> Do you have enough trades entered with limit orders to draw meaningful conclusions yet as to overall R:R ratio & profitability when compared with trades entered with Buy/Sell Stop entries?






MichaelD said:


> Good to hear a different viewpoint.
> 
> Your trading style is very different to mine as my edge is entirely derived from how I manage the trades and has nothing to do with the entry.
> 
> The bulk of my profits come on big white and big black candle days, and they come from aggressively pyramiding into a trend. The rest is surviving though the noise of mean reversion. It's fun trading an instrument that "always mean reverts...except when it doesn't".
> 
> There are days when I'll complete 20-30 trades. There are days when I'll complete 1-2.




Michael,

It's great that you've found a way of trading that works for you.

Having said that, have you noticed that you've been contradicting yourself when debating the merits of order entry types (limit versus stop) whilst also claiming that order entry has no relevence to your edge?


----------



## Trembling Hand

MichaelD said:


> IG Markets Australia 200 Cash




Arrh so you cannot use limit orders to their full use anyway. You have to cross the spread to trade.


----------



## CanOz

MichaelD, is it in your plan to move to futures?


----------



## MichaelD

cynic said:


> Having said that, have you noticed that you've been contradicting yourself when debating the merits of order entry types (limit versus stop) whilst also claiming that order entry has no relevence to your edge?




A very good point which I will concede.



Trembling Hand said:


> You have to cross the spread to trade.




Trading a synthetic instrument against a market maker does indeed bring some unique characteristics not representative of a real futures market. Some of the quirks work in my favour, some work against me.

However, the weekly wages drawing transaction is indeed real money.


----------



## MichaelD

CanOz said:


> MichaelD, is it in your plan to move to futures?




I have two conflicting views;

1. I have traded the Australia 200 Cash successfully for 18 months, completing 2000 or so trades. Trading capital is now 15x what I started with and I take a wage out weekly which I can comfortably live on. I have learned many things about how this particular instrument behaves and adapted my trading around its characteristics. Why mess with a good thing?

2. I am starting to occasionally hit liquidity issues which so far have not created too many issues and for which I have strategies that work OK at present. There is no market depth information as the Australia 200 is a synthetic market maker instrument. I think to take my trading to the next level of return I would need to go to real futures, not market maker. The learning curve, however, both excites and daunts me at the moment. The prospect of further automating my trading is very tempting and exciting. Learning the quirks of a yet another new instrument is very daunting.


----------



## CanOz

Hmmm, i wonder how long they'll let you make money? TH has some experience with these guys...

I also wonder if switching to something with depth that it may improve your results. But like ya say, why break something that's working good...


----------



## Trembling Hand

MichaelD said:


> Learning the quirks of a yet another new instrument is very daunting.




But its tick for tick to the Futs. That is where the price comes from. You are just paying handsomely for the privilege of....... well not sure of why but you are paying.


----------



## cynic

CanOz said:


> Hmmm, i wonder how long they'll let you make money? TH has some experience with these guys...



 +1
Years after I ceased trading with that mob, they still had the audacity to contact me several times enquiring as to the reason why I no longer choose to trade with them!


----------



## MichaelD

Trembling Hand said:


> But its tick for tick to the Futs.




Is it really? This is news to me (no sarcasm). I thought it diverged after hours.

Time to do some reading.


----------



## Trembling Hand

MichaelD said:


> Is it really? This is news to me (no sarcasm). I thought it diverged after hours.
> 
> Time to do some reading.




Well if you are trading outside of SPI day hours (9:50 - 4:30) that makes even less sense to trade CFDs. The Spi is now a locked up Arb machine and has a 1 point spread most of the time. Don't CFDs open their spread outside of hours?


----------



## cynic

MichaelD said:


> Is it really? This is news to me (no sarcasm). I thought it diverged after hours.
> 
> Time to do some reading.




I think that after hours divergence that you're observing relates to market spread during periods where trading has substantially less liquidity.


----------



## beachlife

Its tick for tick but not $ for point

Spi futures 1 point =$25
CFD 1 point = $1

Then there's also a big difference in margins

SPI futures $5500 per contract
CFD equiv (25 cfd's) around $650.

So the ability to position size exactly and much lower margins are why many choose to pay the premium.


----------



## MichaelD

Trembling Hand said:


> The Spi is now a locked up Arb machine and has a 1 point spread most of the time. Don't CFDs open their spread outside of hours?




Yes they do, from 1 point in hours to between 2-5 points depending on the time of day.

How does the SPI after hours behave when the FTSE or the S&P500 moves? Does it track them or is there a gap in the morning?

What about depth of market? After hours, what is the typical depth of market at the Bid/Ask?

Having a 1-2 point spread for 24 hours is immensely tempting. It certainly would do great things for my ability to risk manage open positions after hours.




beachlife said:


> Spi futures 1 point =$25
> CFD 1 point = $1
> 
> Then there's also a big difference in margins
> 
> SPI futures $5500 per contract
> CFD equiv (25 cfd's) around $650.
> 
> So the ability to position size exactly and much lower margins are why many choose to pay the premium.




Therein lies several reasons why I am currently using CFDs.

1. Most of my trading capital can currently safely live in an interest bearing account away from the market maker's account.
2. I have the ability to effectively position size and manage fractions of a contract below 1 SPI contract.


----------



## tech/a

You can trade the SPI out of hrs as it tracks (at times) the DJIA.
Can trade DAX and FTSE as well.
Futs


----------



## pavilion103

Nice setup to the short side tonight.
5 min chart.
Entry sell-stop 6564
Initial stop 6571
7 point risk 

Price was always going to come down and fill the gap around 6540.

Setup was on a lower high with bearish behavior.

Exit 6534

30 points


----------



## pavilion103

Enormous clarity since working on a proper playbook.

There are good setups which repeat themselves. 

Huge help knowing exactly what to look for and then executing.


----------



## >Apocalypto<

MichaelD said:


> I have two conflicting views;
> 
> 1. I have traded the Australia 200 Cash successfully for 18 months, completing 2000 or so trades. Trading capital is now 15x what I started with and I take a wage out weekly which I can comfortably live on. I have learned many things about how this particular instrument behaves and adapted my trading around its characteristics. Why mess with a good thing?
> 
> 2. I am starting to occasionally hit liquidity issues which so far have not created too many issues and for which I have strategies that work OK at present. There is no market depth information as the Australia 200 is a synthetic market maker instrument. I think to take my trading to the next level of return I would need to go to real futures, not market maker. The learning curve, however, both excites and daunts me at the moment. The prospect of further automating my trading is very tempting and exciting. Learning the quirks of a yet another new instrument is very daunting.




not trying to be smart or rude, but if you have achived this why stay with IG? not move into futures?


----------



## CanOz

pavilion103 said:


> Nice setup to the short side tonight.
> 5 min chart.
> Entry sell-stop 6564
> Initial stop 6571
> 7 point risk
> 
> Price was always going to come down and fill the gap around 6540.
> 
> Setup was on a lower high with bearish behavior.
> 
> Exit 6534
> 
> 30 points




Indeed....


----------



## Caveroute

pavilion103 said:


> Enormous clarity since working on a proper playbook.
> 
> There are good setups which repeat themselves.
> 
> Huge help knowing exactly what to look for and then executing.




How would you have described "Setup was on a lower high with bearish behavior" in your playbook Pav ?

Not trying to be smart - but I would have described it as a second entry short [l2] at the trendline, at the 20 bar ema with a strong reversal bar.

Very high probability - and relatively easy to recognize and understand as a playbook reference.


----------



## pavilion103

Caveroute said:


> How would you have described "Setup was on a lower high with bearish behavior" in your playbook Pav ?




I'll get into my files on the laptop tomorrow.

It would have to:
1) be already in a downtrend (and taking into consideration the daily chart context)
2) likely more downside potential
3) pullback to form the first high
4) pullback again and reject this area on bearish characteristics (eg a few bars on low volume closing on the low). Often in the form of a descending triangle but not necessarily.
5) offer a low risk entry (usually say 4-7 points) and RR that is worthwhile.
6) can enter on a) limit order b) sell-stop depending on circumstances (I need to get more clear here).

I save the 3 min and daily chart each night.
I analyse these charts.
I mark up all good setups plus my real time setups in detail and save them to a folder.
I analyse them in terms of the daily chart for context.
I chategorise these folders so that all the 'same' type of setups are in the same folders.  
I print off and review these setups looking for similarities and differences.

A lot of work but worth it!


----------



## pavilion103

Yeh that's good Cav. I need to give them names and be more concise with my description. 

Only in the early stages of developing a proper playbook so open to any suggestions.

In this case, all I know is I keep seeing the same setup and I keep making money!


----------



## CanOz

6534 is looking like 50% of that move


----------



## pavilion103

Wow!
Just wow!

I will definitely need to trade 2 contracts!
30 points would have been 130 points!!!


----------



## pavilion103

I've learnt many lessons over the past 6 months or so in futures. There are a couple that stick out and have been reiterated over and over. 

Big profits will come when:

1) 
Identify a playbook of good setups. 
Trade them in the right market context.
Wait patiently for them to appear (don't chase). 
Pull the trigger. 


2)
Hold the trade for the "real move". 
Get stop to break-even ASAP. Then HOLD (don't sell on noise).


I have experienced profits but not big profits. 
This is because I do 1) very well but I do 2) poorly. 
I put this down to a mixutre of A) lack of experience (not realising just how far a trade can run and not understanding noise in the futures market) and B) psychology (not wanting to give back 30 points). 
Both of these can be easily overcome. They aren't big issues for me. Just need to continue to study study study and understand the market well.

I think that trading 2 contracts will help me with B) psychology and once I understand A) how to read the market noise properly, I may choose to hold all contracts for the big move. 
I think it's a sensible compromise for the short term.


----------



## tech/a

> Big profits will come when:




(1) Consistent small profits.
(2) Longer winning trades than losing trades.
(3) Frequency.
(4) Size.

Trick here is to get it right without blowing up.
Futures can blow you up real quick!

There are multiple ways of setting up trades.
But unless you have a proven method 
$100K min
I personally think trading Baby Pips with M/M structures is going
to be the best way to cut your teeth.

I'm pretty sure you can trade both DAX and FTSE with Baby pips
but have no idea of codes?


----------



## pavilion103

Of those, frequency is my main issue at the moment. 

I definitely agree with consistent smaller profits adding up but I also believe that holding for a day/bigger move can lead to substantial profits over time.

Maybe it comes down to a strategy that works for the individual. From the beginning of my trading I've had a picture in mind and it is becoming clearer and clearer.

Frequency needs to increase.
Size is my next one. As someone who traded on a sim for 2 years, I am very patient. I will increase size over time and only following greater consistent profit.

Many will think that I suffer from delusions of grandeur but I see no reason why in the near future profit of $100,000 can be made (50 points per week x 2 contracts).

Lol I took out the actual figure that I wrote down first (it wasn't $100,000) because I don't believe the responses would be favourable


----------



## pavilion103

Continue to pick up 20 or 30 points consistently and then leave contracts to run also and capture some if the bigger moves.
This is what makes the most sense to me at the moment but I admit this thinking could easily change.


----------



## Trembling Hand

MichaelD said:


> Therein lies several reasons why I am currently using CFDs.
> 
> 1. Most of my trading capital can currently safely live in an interest bearing account away from the market maker's account.




No Therein lies some poor thinking and also I suspect some lack of knowledge of how markets trade. Err 2000 trades at a very conservative estimate of 0.5 point tax for crossing the spread twice every trade. ( I bet its way way more)



0.5 point/5120 asx200 = 0.00097 per trade X by 2000 trades = 0.195312 If you trade value is $100,000 you would need $20,000 in your CFD account and the other $80,000 in your 'high interest' account.

How are you going to make up paying another 20 grand extra cost from $80 grand in a savings account?

  You would have to be crazy to trade CFDs for anything other than a hobby.


----------



## Trembling Hand

Or here is another way to look at it.

Assuming $100,000 position size. That is $19.53 per point ($100,000/ASX200 5120 = 19.53 per point)

Doing 2000 trades that is an extra cost of 20 grand ( 19.53 per point / 0.5 point CFD 'trade tax' = $9.765 * 2000 trades = 20 g)


----------



## Trembling Hand

pavilion103 said:


> Many will think that I suffer from delusions of grandeur but I see no reason why in the near future profit of $100,000 can be made (50 points per week x 2 contracts).
> 
> Lol I took out the actual figure that I wrote down first (it wasn't $100,000) because I don't believe the responses would be favourable




Yep all very easy IF you can be consistent. Its the big down days that fluff up the average. Also don't underestimate how hard it is to recognise and actually trade the big days. Its as easy as hell to have a look at the daily range the day after and pull the calculator out and go "boy next time I'll make XXXX"

But how many have we had in 6 months and how many have you rode? Bit of a reality check in that number I bet.


----------



## pavilion103

Trembling Hand said:


> Yep all very easy IF you can be consistent. Its the big down days that fluff up the average. Also don't underestimate how hard it is to recognise and actually trade the big days. Its as easy as hell to have a look at the daily range the day after and pull the calculator out and go "boy next time I'll make XXXX"  But how many have we had in 6 months and how many have you rode? Bit of a reality check in that number I bet.




I agree with you.
It's not easy at all.
My strength is that I'm very defensive minded.
In 6 months I haven't had a huge down day. A few where I've lost more than I should have but none that have been close to being disasters. Risk management is key for me.

It's not even about these huge runs that in am referring to. They are nice but like you said, I can't bank on them.

I'm talking more in terms of many many trades that I am identifying, reducing risk in, profiting from but just not letting run. Most of the pieces of the puzzle are there. I'm not talking about hypothetical profit for setups I'm seeing in hindsight or 400 point moved that I "should" have.

I know you aren't the biggest fan of my 2 contract idea. I know you think 'hold them all'. But psychologically, for the short term, I know this is a right stepping stone for me. Better to maximize profit on 1 out of 2 contracts than on 0 out of 1 contract (even if 2/2 is the best possible outcome).


----------



## Trembling Hand

pavilion103 said:


> I know you aren't the biggest fan of my 2 contract idea. I know you think 'hold them all'. But psychologically, for the short term, I know this is a right stepping stone for me. Better to maximize profit on 1 out of 2 contracts than on 0 out of 1 contract (even if 2/2 is the best possible outcome).




No, No I think its very hard to trade 1 contract, makes every decision an in or out one. That sucks. I'm just not a fan of letting go of the first contract at 1-2 R. (especially the 1 R :bad

If you can control the down side I'm all for sizing up.


----------



## pavilion103

Trembling Hand said:


> No, No I think its very hard to trade 1 contract, makes every decision an in or out one. That sucks. I'm just not a fan of letting go of the first contract at 1-2 R. (especially the 1 R :bad
> 
> If you can control the down side I'm all for sizing up.





Yeh. That is how I feel. 

I don't really even see my lack of willingness to let the trades run as a psychology issue to be honest. 
I feel a little handcuffed by having the 1 contract. 
Every choice becomes so difficult. 
I could have entered a trade for 6 points risk. Eliminated risk quickly. And then be up 30 points. 
Now this is a good 5R trade. Trading like this my strategy well and truly has positive expectancy. 
Volume comes in and bearish signs. I think "hmm... I've got 5R on the table. This is a profitable strategy if I take these."
So I take it. In the back of my mind, I truly believe that it will pull back less than my BE stop and then continue down, but is it worth the chance/risk?

Obviously this is where 2 contracts comes in. 
I take my 30 points off the table for a 5R profit. A great trade. 
My other one is at breakeven (or a significant pivot level) and I let it run longer. 
Depending on the chart, I may let it run over night. I may set a profit take target. 
I've now got that versatility. The best of both worlds. 

That's how I see it. 
It is incredibly frustrating because I'm doing just about everything right, but just not maximising the outcome (with the level of risk that I feel comfortable with i.e. not giving back all of those 30 points).


----------



## CanOz

pavilion103 said:


> Many will think that I suffer from delusions of grandeur but I see no reason why in the near future profit of $100,000 can be made (50 points per week x 2 contracts).
> 
> Lol I took out the actual figure that I wrote down first (it wasn't $100,000) because I don't believe the responses would be favourable




Quite the contrary, i know guys that are making over $100,000 per month...their trading accounts are in the millions, former prop traders.

I reckon, my best guess...is TH here is pocketing 15-30k for a stellar day. I could be a little low here. He's likely got a 10k daily stop.

So i don't think you're wrong about the potential Pav.


----------



## MichaelD

TH,

The biggest issue preventing me from moving to futures ASAP is the minimum SPI contract size of 1. My risk management requires the ability to (occasionally) deal in a contract size of 0.2 which as far as I am aware cannot be done on the SPI (but can be done with CFDs).

Once I have successfully scaled a further x5 I can then move safely to the SPI.


----------



## pavilion103

CanOz said:


> Quite the contrary, i know guys that are making over $100,000 per month...their trading accounts are in the millions, former prop traders.
> 
> I reckon, my best guess...is TH here is pocketing 15-30k for a stellar day. I could be a little low here. He's likely got a 10k daily stop.
> 
> So i don't think you're wrong about the potential Pav.




I'm glad to hear that. 
I like to come on here and get excited about trading and the potential. 
The more that things begin to click the more excited that I get. 
Obviously with the right risk management, mindset, knowledge, hard work etc. it's possible. 

The potential is staggering and exciting. 
I'm committed to doing whatever it takes to realise this potential. 

This is the only outlet I have to share my enthusiasm haha 
If I tell anyone else they will simply think I'm either delusional or an arrogant douche


----------



## Trembling Hand

CanOz said:


> I reckon, my best guess...is TH here is pocketing 15-30k for a stellar day. I could be a little low here. He's likely got a 10k daily stop.









MichaelD said:


> TH,
> 
> The biggest issue preventing me from moving to futures ASAP is the minimum SPI contract size of 1. My risk management requires the ability to (occasionally) deal in a contract size of 0.2 which as far as I am aware cannot be done on the SPI (but can be done with CFDs).
> 
> Once I have successfully scaled a further x5 I can then move safely to the SPI.




Yep gotcha. Luckily you are trading the ASX200, The other CFDs are just ridic as far as spread cost vs futs.


----------



## pavilion103

LMAO @ the video


----------



## MichaelD

At the risk of getting way off topic here (sorry Pav), a significant business risk seems to be being kicked out by whichever bucket shop, err CFD provider, you are trading with if you are too successful. I haven't been able to dredge up any relevant posts via Search, so would be grateful for any comments on this.


----------



## Trembling Hand

MichaelD said:


> At the risk of getting way off topic here (sorry Pav), a significant business risk seems to be being kicked out by whichever bucket shop, err CFD provider, you are trading with if you are too successful. I haven't been able to dredge up any relevant posts via Search, so would be grateful for any comments on this.




Just watch for slow entries and slow exits especially when its moving against you. You should also have real data rather than the crap they give you.


----------



## CanOz

MichaelD said:


> At the risk of getting way off topic here (sorry Pav), a significant business risk seems to be being kicked out by whichever bucket shop, err CFD provider, you are trading with if you are too successful. I haven't been able to dredge up any relevant posts via Search, so would be grateful for any comments on this.




Read this through, will see if i can dig up some more later....

Nothing to something scalping system


----------



## CanOz

Here is where they closed him down...


----------



## skc

pavilion103 said:


> Many will think that I suffer from delusions of grandeur but I see no reason why in the near future profit of $100,000 can be made (50 points per week x 2 contracts).






CanOz said:


> Quite the contrary, i know guys that are making over $100,000 per month...their trading accounts are in the millions, former prop traders.




Pav, dream bigger! Go to 2 contract as soon as you can, then ask TH to give your name to the Prop shop. And you will really experience what sizing up means!



CanOz said:


> I reckon, my best guess...is TH here is pocketing 15-30k for a stellar day. I could be a little low here. He's likely got a 10k daily stop.




You are under-estimating would be my estimate 



MichaelD said:


> TH,
> 
> The biggest issue preventing me from moving to futures ASAP is the minimum SPI contract size of 1. My risk management requires the ability to (occasionally) deal in a contract size of 0.2 which as far as I am aware cannot be done on the SPI (but can be done with CFDs).
> 
> Once I have successfully scaled a further x5 I can then move safely to the SPI.




I thought you mentioned about getting into liquidity issues with IG? Can you disclose at what $/tick level you are getting these issues? If you are not yet doing a few SPI then I am a bit surprised that you are having issues already. Although I must admit it's been a long time since I last traded with IG.



MichaelD said:


> At the risk of getting way off topic here (sorry Pav), a significant business risk seems to be being kicked out by whichever bucket shop, err CFD provider, you are trading with if you are too successful. I haven't been able to dredge up any relevant posts via Search, so would be grateful for any comments on this.




If you are consistently profitable the bucket shop won't necessarily kick you out. They should be smart enough to know you are profitable and simply hedge your trades... like as if you are doing DMA but only with futures... instead of taking up the other side of your trade. 

They kick you out only when you are bending their rules or finding a glitch. Here's another story from years ago.

https://www.aussiestockforums.com/forums/showthread.php?t=14588&highlight=result


----------



## MichaelD

Trembling Hand said:


> Just watch for slow entries and slow exits especially when its moving against you. You should also have real data rather than the crap they give you.




Used to get that on occasion with larger position sizes and have now figured ways around it.

It's very rare now that I get the dreaded "Your order is being handled by the dealing desk" message.




skc said:


> I thought you mentioned about getting into liquidity issues with IG? Can you disclose at what $/tick level you are getting these issues? If you are not yet doing a few SPI then I am a bit surprised that you are having issues already. Although I must admit it's been a long time since I last traded with IG.




I trade sizes between 0.2 and 10 contracts (ie $5 to $250 per tick). It's at the 10 contract size that issues crop up at times.




skc said:


> They kick you out only when you are bending their rules or finding a glitch. Here's another story from years ago.
> 
> https://www.aussiestockforums.com/forums/showthread.php?t=14588&highlight=result




Thanks - will read this one carefully.


----------



## TheUnknown

Trembling Hand said:


> No Therein lies some poor thinking and also I suspect some lack of knowledge of how markets trade. Err 2000 trades at a very conservative estimate of 0.5 point tax for crossing the spread twice every trade. ( I bet its way way more)
> 
> 
> 
> 0.5 point/5120 asx200 = 0.00097 per trade X by 2000 trades = 0.195312 If you trade value is $100,000 you would need $20,000 in your CFD account and the other $80,000 in your 'high interest' account.
> 
> How are you going to make up paying another 20 grand extra cost from $80 grand in a savings account?
> 
> You would have to be crazy to trade CFDs for anything other than a hobby.







Curious to know why you think those that trade cfds are crazy? Recently i have meet someone that makes quiet a huge lot of money trading cfds/fx. Some months he loses huge money but overall in positive big time. Jan has earned him $82k trades US cfds/fx.


----------



## beachlife

Trembling Hand said:


> Or here is another way to look at it.
> 
> Assuming $100,000 position size. That is $19.53 per point ($100,000/ASX200 5120 = 19.53 per point)
> 
> Doing 2000 trades that is an extra cost of 20 grand ( 19.53 per point / 0.5 point CFD 'trade tax' = $9.765 * 2000 trades = 20 g)




Here is a screen shot I just took from my cfd provider.  The top one follows the spi, the other is their own composite index.





If I was to buy 25 cfds at market my commission would be $0, and the spread is 1 point.

How much does it cost round trip to trade 1 spi fut?


----------



## CanOz

beachlife said:


> Here is a screen shot I just took from my cfd provider.  The top one follows the spi, the other is their own composite index.
> 
> View attachment 56582
> 
> 
> If I was to buy 25 cfds at market my commission would be $0, and the spread is 1 point.
> 
> How much does it cost round trip to trade 1 spi fut?




10 AUD on Interactive Brokers...


----------



## tech/a

beachlife said:


> Here is a screen shot I just took from my cfd provider.  The top one follows the spi, the other is their own composite index.
> 
> View attachment 56582
> 
> 
> If I was to buy 25 cfds at market my commission would be $0, and the spread is 1 point.
> 
> How much does it cost round trip to trade 1 spi fut?




$6  from IB
FTSE $2
DAX $1.70

From memory I think!


----------



## CanOz

tech/a said:


> $6  from IB
> FTSE $2
> DAX $1.70
> 
> From memory I think!




Round trip?


----------



## pavilion103

I reckon FTSE is 1.70
3.40 round trip


----------



## beachlife

Ok so I can trade to a limit of 500 SPI cfd's, equiv to 20 futures contracts.

So to trade 500 cfds costs nothing per trade, 20 futs contracts costs $200.


----------



## beachlife

pavilion103 said:


> I reckon FTSE is 1.70
> 3.40 round trip




The spread on the UK100 cfd is 6 points now, Germany 30 also 6.  Will see what they are later when Europe wakes up.


----------



## skyQuake

beachlife said:


> Ok so I can trade to a limit of 500 SPI cfd's, equiv to 20 futures contracts.
> 
> So to trade 500 cfds costs nothing per trade, 20 futs contracts costs $200.




That 1pt spread is $500


----------



## cynic

beachlife said:


> The spread on the UK100 cfd is 6 points now, Germany 30 also 6.  Will see what they are later when Europe wakes up.



Yes those are the outside hours spreads for the March futures. The spreads on both Germany 30 and UK 100 normally reduce to 4 points inside hours.


----------



## Trembling Hand

skyQuake said:


> That 1pt spread is $500




Yep twice thats $1000 for a free no commission trade.


----------



## skc

beachlife said:


> Here is a screen shot I just took from my cfd provider.  The top one follows the spi, the other is their own composite index.
> 
> View attachment 56582
> 
> 
> If I was to buy 25 cfds at market my commission would be $0, and the spread is 1 point.
> 
> How much does it cost round trip to trade 1 spi fut?




If the market doesn't move, you buy at 5136 and sell at 5135, costing your $25. There's no other way around it.

With SPI futures you have 4 possible scenarios (again assuming the market doesn't move). In each case round trip commission = $10.
1. You buy at the ask paying 5136, and sell at the bid getting 5135. You lost $25.
2. You buy at limit and get a fill at 5135, then sell at limit and get a fill at 5136. You made $25.
3. You buy at limit and get a fill at 5135, then sell at bid getting 5135. Your P&L = $0.
4. You buy at ask paying 5136, then sell at limit and get a fill at 5136. Your P&L = $0.

So depending on your trading style etc, you are able to improve your P&L under situation 2, 3 and 4, compared to trading CFDs. Let's say each situation has an equal probability of occurence, the average cost of entry/exit with the SPI would be the $10 commission round trip. As opposed to the $25 it costs you to cross the spread on the CFD.

$15 per contract per trade quickly adds up for those who trade regularly.

So for anyone who's trading bigger than one SPI contract, it really pays to migrate to the real futures market.


----------



## beachlife

skc said:


> If the market doesn't move, you buy at 5136 and sell at 5135, costing your $25. There's no other way around it.
> 
> With SPI futures you have 4 possible scenarios (again assuming the market doesn't move). In each case round trip commission = $10.
> 1. You buy at the ask paying 5136, and sell at the bid getting 5135. You lost $25.
> 2. You buy at limit and get a fill at 5135, then sell at limit and get a fill at 5136. You made $25.
> 3. You buy at limit and get a fill at 5135, then sell at bid getting 5135. Your P&L = $0.
> 4. You buy at ask paying 5136, then sell at limit and get a fill at 5136. Your P&L = $0.
> 
> So depending on your trading style etc, you are able to improve your P&L under situation 2, 3 and 4, compared to trading CFDs. Let's say each situation has an equal probability of occurence, the average cost of entry/exit with the SPI would be the $10 commission round trip. As opposed to the $25 it costs you to cross the spread on the CFD.
> 
> $15 per contract per trade quickly adds up for those who trade regularly.
> 
> So for anyone who's trading bigger than one SPI contract, it really pays to migrate to the real futures market.





How long does  the market stay still for?  But in any case you forgot to include the round trip costs in your examples.
1. Lost $35
2. made $15
3. lost $10
4. lost $10

And you have assumed a fill which is not guaranteed.

You can also buy at limit and sell at limit with cfd's.  But there is a big difference.  With cfd's if the spread gets to your price you are filled, with futs you might be filled if the depth is there, or you might not.  When I was trading futs I have seen the market trade at my price and then reverse, but I wasnt filled because not all contracts were bought at that price.  With cfds I have also seen the spread move and flick me out, and just miss a fill also.  In both cases its not common.

Assuming the market is moving,
If I buy 25 spi cfds at 5000 and sell at 5030 I have made $750
If you buy 1 futs at 5000 and sell at 5030 you have made $10 less.

If the market just touches 5030 with 1 contract traded and then reverses, I may miss out because of the spread, you may miss out because of market depth.  

If I buy at 5000 and sell at 4980 I have lost $500, you have lost $510.

For the majority of trades that either hit a stop or hit a target, the futs trader will pay more in fees in a case like the spi where both have the same spread.




Trembling Hand said:


> Yep twice thats $1000 for a free no commission trade.




The spread is 1 pt, same as the fut.  Why are you doubling it?.


----------



## Trembling Hand

My god you try to help someone and you just end up  

beachlife just lol. Good luck punting away with that. Your clearly have it all worked out.


----------



## cynic

Beachlife.

Comparing spi cfds to futures might not highlight the diffences as distinctly as comparing FTSE or DAX cfds. For a FTSE 100 cfd equivalent of a futures contract (10 pounds per point) I have to pay 40 (10 X spread of 4) for a round trip. Slippage considerations aside, I believe that is still quite expensive.


----------



## pavilion103

Ok back to the interesting stuff.

Price on pre-open is around the same level as yesterday's open. Will be interested to see if it rejects this level of not. If it does and I get a clear entry I'm short


----------



## CanOz

pavilion103 said:


> Ok back to the interesting stuff.
> 
> Price on pre-open is around the same level as yesterday's open. Will be interested to see if it rejects this level of not. If it does and I get a clear entry I'm short




umm....no Its pre-cash trading has been above yesterdays post-cash closebut well below the open.

Above 6405 we could see some short covering....not expecting a big trend day today though....likely be a record breaker now


----------



## pavilion103

Sorry not the open. Misread it.

It's near a high volume area that's all.


----------



## CanOz

pavilion103 said:


> Sorry not the open. Misread it.
> 
> It's near a high volume area that's all.





Yeah, agree its not far off balance...could be choppy if it gets stuck in that muck...


----------



## tech/a

6405 what you guys looking at?

Looking for test of 6437/27
DAX 62/26


----------



## CanOz

Good luck lads, off to New Years dinner soon!


----------



## MichaelD

Still Off Topic (sorry Pav):
1. Regarding CFD providers shutting you down...

Reading through the various links provided by other posters, it would appear that CFD providers will basically slow your execution, widen your spread and increase your slippage if they don't like what you are doing.

I did not see any reference to them specifically closing down accounts, just making life even harder for you.

Would that be a fair summary of what happens?


2. Briefly read the Interactive Brokers website today and it would seem that by opening an account I can get a real time SPI data feed with market depth which they won't charge for (apart from plonking down $10,000 USD in capital), even if I don't trade with them just yet.

Something for (sort-of) free sounds a bit suspicious to me...or am I too cynical?


On Topic:
Not much for me at the moment in the current market. 1 contract, +5 points today is my lot. Chicken scratchings only. Need the market to move out of the current range before I can make anything significant.


----------



## skyQuake

beachlife said:


> If the market just touches 5030 with 1 contract traded and then reverses, I may miss out because of the spread, you may miss out because of market depth.




No. Thats not now it works. There is a guarantee you will miss out. When it comes to 5029bid 5030 ask, that is what the cfd provider will display. If 500 contracts trade at 5030 but it stays at those bid and ask figures, your CFD 5030 limit will not get filled but a futures limit will, only when it goes to 5030bid will your CFD sell limit get filled. That's where you lose out on your 1 tick.



> For the majority of trades that either hit a stop or hit a target, the futs trader will pay more in fees in a case like the spi where both have the same spread.
> .




Seems strange everyone trades the futures then doesn't it?

Also counterparty risk is a significant issue with CFDs, as its you against the provider. Sonray and MFG come to mind

-----------------------------

On topic - Are my charts wonked or does the FTSE open 5minutes earlier than before? I have a bar at 6:55pm instead of 7pm (syd time)


----------



## beachlife

skyQuake said:


> No. Thats not now it works. There is a guarantee you will miss out. When it comes to 5029bid 5030 ask, that is what the cfd provider will display. If 500 contracts trade at 5030 but it stays at those bid and ask figures, your CFD 5030 limit will not get filled *but a futures limit will*,




CFD's agree - happens rearely.  Futs, disagree, will only be filled if depth is there.  Happened to me last night on oil fut - yes a real fut.  It traded at ask price, but not enough to fill my  order, and then reversed and I wasnt filled.  Also happens rarely.  


For most trades where the orders are placed somewhere other than what turns out to be a turning point, cfds (from my provider) are the same but without the fees.  No software or data fees either.



cynic said:


> Beachlife.
> 
> Comparing spi cfds to futures might not highlight the diffences as distinctly as comparing FTSE or DAX cfds. For a FTSE 100 cfd equivalent of a futures contract (10 pounds per point) I have to pay 40 (10 X spread of 4) for a round trip. Slippage considerations aside, I believe that is still quite expensive.




1 point spread on UK and Dax also.





The obessession with futs for small position index trading is beyond me.

As for Sonray, their futures traders probably lost more because they had more margin lodged with them.

Anyway my point is really for Michael, to say that if what you are doing is working for you there is no need to change to futures just for the sake of it.


----------



## pavilion103

What just happened then? 
Taking out all the shorts?
Is it going to crash down now?


----------



## Caveroute

tech/a said:


> 6405 what you guys looking at?
> 
> Looking for test of 6437/27
> DAX 62/26




A difficult night for me, a few singes, no scorch marks, could have been a lot worse ..........................

In retrospect, poor judgment on my part, sometimes  I see what I want to see and not what is really there. 

Eh well, onward and upwards.


----------



## cynic

beachlife said:


> ...
> 1 point spread on UK and Dax also.
> 
> View attachment 56592
> 
> ...




As I type this post, the spreads on the March futures are 4 points for both the Germany 30 and the UK 100 cfds (FSP:City Index).
There are additional charges associated with the 1 point spread cfds that you mention(i.e debits and credits in respect to dividends and interest). If holding beyond 24 hours the 3 point saving on spread can quickly erode!


----------



## skc

beachlife said:


> How long does  the market stay still for?  But in any case you forgot to include the round trip costs in your examples.
> 1. Lost $35
> 2. made $15
> 3. lost $10
> 4. lost $10




Yes I have included $10 commission. The average P&L (before commission) of the 4 situations is $0. So the average cost including commission is precisely $10. This applies whether the market is standing still or moving rapidly.



skc said:


> So depending on your trading style etc, you are able to improve your P&L under situation 2, 3 and 4, compared to trading CFDs. Let's say each situation has an equal probability of occurence, *the average cost of entry/exit with the SPI would be the $10 commission round trip. *






beachlife said:


> And you have assumed a fill which is not guaranteed.




No. I have not assumed a fill. The above calculation shows you 4 different situations where you get a fill in both entry and exit, entry only, exit only or neither. 

The key here is that the real future contract gives you the *opportunity for a fill without crossing the spread*. CFDs do not give you that opportunity. Depending on your trading style, the costs can be very significant.



beachlife said:


> The obessession with futs for small position index trading is beyond me. Anyway my point is really for Michael, to say that if what you are doing is working for you there is no need to change to futures just for the sake of it.




MichaelD is trading a size where he begins to experience liquidity issues with the CFD provider. That's why the real traders here are telling him to prepare a move the the real futures market where you can access real liquidity AND be skillful enough to save the spread cost.

If you are trading sub 1 contract size, or scaling in/out is that important to you, then I have nothing against CFDs. But you need to recognise that they are the more expensive option.


----------



## MichaelD

I thank the real futures traders here for their invaluable input. It has broadened my knowledge base considerably. Looking back at old threads from when I was last here has been very illuminating. If only I'd known then what I now know.  I'll probably say the same about this thread in a few years time.


Looking at the downsides/upsides of the Australia 200 Cash CFD vs the downsides/upsides of the SPI has been most illuminating.

I mentioned earlier that I have become used to the instrument I trade & that even though I trade it daily, I do so very differently to many of you and more particularly I have adapted my style to accommodate both the advantages and disadvantages of CFDs.

I could not directly transfer my current trading style to the SPI.

Differences between the way the Australia 200 Cash trades and the way the SPI trades:

1. Margin requirements. To move to the SPI at the same size would require around about 5x the capital I currently need.

2. Contract size. I am able to currently work with 0.2 of a contract with ease. This is not possible with the SPI below a contract size of 1.

3. The spread. The way I trade is not harmed substantially by having to cross the spread. Occasionally I will not get a fill which I would have got on the real SPI, so I miss an occasional trade. The bulk of my profits come from riding & scaling a position for 30+ points for all it is worth & I usually manage to get several of these per week. Real traders will fully understand what this is worth in $ terms. 1 tick makes very little difference to the big picture for me.

4. Scaling in and scaling out of positions is essential to my edge. I am not currently hampered by needing to pay attention to contract expiry dates, which would become relevant if I were to trade the SPI directly.


Yes, I have to pay handsomely for the way I trade in interest costs & occasional slippage & all the other unique market maker tricks.

Yes, I think to take my trading to the next level of return I will need to move to futures.

Just not quite yet.

I will add real market DOM information to my trading, as this will help me transition to the SPI.


ps I am reminded of Jesse Livermore's story. He could make a killing in the bucket shops, but failed miserably any time he tried to trade the underlying market.


----------



## CanOz

A couple of interesting thoughts for those willing to spend some quiet time looking at charts. Rather than looking for patterns like triangles and flags, a useful way to look for trade locations is to open up a chart of you favorite future and look for overnight highs and low and how the market reacts to those locations and then put the current session into a new context based on that activity. 

The market definitely considers these areas a point of support or resistance. It has been said that this is mostly the locals or retails traders that use these levels, a big commercial hedger doesn't give two tosses about these levels.

Never the less, these levels and the Prior day OPEN, HIGH, LOW and CLOSE are pretty important references as well. On the European markets, due to the length of the session, the Overnight High and Lows ( highs and lows outside of the cash equity market hours) are really not as relevant. So prior day OHLC can be of more relevance.

On the SPI, and the US markets however, these Overnight levels are a great place to look for activity, in the Depth of Market, a volume ladder or a bid/ask indicator. Think about who could be holding postions from previous sessions and time frames.

You can imagine if the market tests this level and rejects it, there are now stops there and if the markets retests it, there could be a reasonable stop run that ensues. Great place to watch for trapped traders.

Anyway, pull up chart, make sure you have a session template that indicates the RTH and ETH sessions (Regular and extended trading hours) and then make the Overnight Highs and Lows as you go through a month or so of activity.

Once you get better at putting prior sessions in this context, around these levels, you can also begin to think about what might happen around news releases. I recall watching the S&P 500 erupt in a massive short covering rally at the highs on news one evening. After i looked over the activity around the highs it was understandable that lots of new shorts had built up and they got absolutely reamed out as they scrambled to get out and new longs got in...fighting against for each other for every price on the offer....These are great trades to on the right side of, but miserable trends to try and fade.

The chart below also show an RTH gap fill. Another important bit of info, in this case likely even more important than an overnight high..


----------



## skc

MichaelD said:


> Yes, I have to pay handsomely for the way I trade in interest costs & occasional slippage & all the other unique market maker tricks.
> 
> Yes, I think to take my trading to the next level of return I will need to move to futures.
> 
> Just not quite yet.
> 
> I will add real market DOM information to my trading, as this will help me transition to the SPI.




Making an informed decision is the most important. 

BTW, keep an eye on IG's share price and earning announcements. The code is IGG:LN. It's one way to help manage your counterparty risk.


----------



## peter2

Canoz:  
Will you please stick to your MP value levels, POC and spread stuff and don't mention the simple stuff that works every day and certainly don't mention that as well as the previous days' H/L it works with the daily regional sessions as well. The MM's frequently try to trap the unwary at the start of the UK session by their head fakes at the Asian session H/L.


----------



## CanOz

Peter...is this better?

Same period with all the MP and VWAP Stuff.....


----------



## peter2

Absolutely, the more indicators the more confusion. Where are all those volume peaks at the side? 

That green chart is one of the clearest charts you've ever posted.


----------



## peter2

Canoz: Obviously I like your post #1880 and totally agree with it. People get sucked into looking at and trading the indicators rather than price action at significant price levels like yesterday's H/L. 

Today's bull trap pin bar at yesterday's high in the spot USDJPY chart. Does this happen often enough to make it worth studying? Hell yeah. 




Yes, those lines are moving averages (white = 50hr EMA, light blue 100hr EMA ). 
Obviously the price is in an hourly down trend (plus 4hr trend is down) and this setup is going with the larger TF trend, so trail the exit stop, take the +3R result. 

Feeling pleased with the session's work. I check out the conversations on ASF and there's Canoz with a clean chart eek suggesting the same trade setup I just pulled off. He's a genius. 

What's going to happen at the start of the UK session? Which market will the trap be set?


----------



## CanOz

Well, there are a couple approaching some interesting levels, the 6E and the 6S, the Euro and the Swissy...

Let me clear some junk off my charts here...hmmm, lets see now, here we go...1 minute


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## CanOz

The 6E is making some new recent lows here...looking at the 60m. There are some levels we might see tested later.....but i guess the Asian session lows might get a look at 1.3543-1.3545

The 6S has a couple of Asian session levels to test...


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## peter2

My thoughts about the 6E are the same. Price is not far away from a huge level (1.3500) that will be watched all over the world. 

I try not to jump the gun before the session starts or trade the first 5min of a session. At this time of the year there is a dead zone that exists after the ASX closes and until an hour before the LSE opens. Low volume periods are ideal retail trader trap times. MMs and bucket shops the world over work it hard during these periods. 

No significant news this evening (always check this out). Especially you Barney as you have been surprised by some recent price spikes lately.


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## tech/a

peter2 said:


> My thoughts about the 6E are the same. Price is not far away from a huge level (1.3500) that will be watched all over the world.
> 
> I try not to jump the gun before the session starts or trade the first 5min of a session. At this time of the year there is a dead zone that exists after the ASX closes and until an hour before the LSE opens. Low volume periods are ideal retail trader trap times. MMs and bucket shops the world over work it hard during these periods.
> 
> No significant news this evening (always check this out). Especially you Barney as you have been surprised by some recent price spikes lately.




How do they work "these"  times with volumes as low as 30/100 in a 3 min timeframe
When normal volume is over 800 contracts?


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## barney

peter2 said:


> No significant news this evening (always check this out). Especially you Barney as you have been surprised by some recent price spikes lately.




Cheers Pete ...... Just another of my bad habits ..... Being aware of the news but guilty of not making a mental note of the times on the charts etc.  I will improve


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## beachlife

Well I thought I should put my money where my mouth is and give these indexes a go with 10 cfd's to see if the spread would be a problem.  It wasnt.  Yesterday was probably a fluke so I thought I should try again just now to be sure.  Probably not in the league of the 'real traders' but good enough for this retail cfd wannabee trader.

View attachment 56616


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## tech/a

tech/a said:


> 6405 what you guys looking at?
> 
> Looking for test of 6437/27
> DAX 62/26




Ahh There it is!


----------



## beachlife

beachlife said:


> Well I thought I should put my money where my mouth is and give these indexes a go with 10 cfd's to see if the spread would be a problem.  It wasnt.  Yesterday was probably a fluke so I thought I should try again just now to be sure.  Probably not in the league of the 'real traders' but good enough for this retail cfd wannabee trader.
> 
> View attachment 56616
> 
> 
> View attachment 56618




Try first attachment again


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## MichaelD

beachlife said:


> View attachment 56616




The fill prices shown here interest me greatly. Not a single one is actually at the level you asked for. Mostly, they improve your position slightly.

Why so?

I would never see such favourable fills with my trading. I mostly get exact fills. Occasionally I get negative slippage. Never do I get positive slippage.

Thanks for sharing this screen capture - I for one am EXTREMELY interested in discussing it.


On Topic: I think tonight's US price action is going to set the scene going forwards from here once and for all and put an end to this whipsawing. Either we are going down a long way via the elevator shaft or we will once and for all start climbing the stairs again. Personally I like making money via the elevator shaft better than the stairs, but whatever will be, will be.

There's no bad news or reports of doom and gloom in the UK or the US as far as I can see. I guess it's the elevator shaft, then.

[note: all commentary is for my amusement only. I trade price action exclusively & do not predict which direction the market will move with my actual positions. Price goes down - sell. Price goes up - buy. Full stop.]


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## MichaelD

pavilion103 said:


> What just happened then?
> Taking out all the shorts?
> Is it going to crash down now?




The blame has been pointed at a "fat finger" at HSBC.

http://uk.finance.yahoo.com/news/hsbc-fat-finger-not-enough-191743045.html


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## cynic

beachlife said:


> Try first attachment again
> 
> View attachment 56623




Those small financing credits you're getting would be for short positions. Be aware that the interest charges for long positions are considerably higher!

Also note, that debits in lieu of dividends are applied to short positions (credits in lieu for long). Credits/debits in lieu of dividends will normally coincide with a corresponding change in the cfd pricing, so this might not be too much of an issue.


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## pavilion103

Not too sure about this trade. 
I ended up making 20 points. 
I never take ones like this. 
Unedited personal notes on chart. 
Not sure if a stupid trade. 
Just a few things that lined up. 
Not one in my playbook. 

The actual reason I even considered this is because:
I was looking to take a long because it was at yesterday's low but I just could not make a case for it. It looked so weak. So I thought 'OK I'll take a short'. 
Usually when they break. They break. I think maybe it was a bit of an all or nothing.


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## pavilion103

Looking for feedback on that trade when people get time.

Honest feedback appreciated.


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## MichaelD

pavilion103 said:


> Not too sure about this trade.
> I ended up making 20 points.
> I never take ones like this.
> Unedited personal notes on chart.
> Not sure if a stupid trade.
> Just a few things that lined up.
> Not one in my playbook.
> 
> The actual reason I even considered this is because:
> I was looking to take a long because it was at yesterday's low but I just could not make a case for it. It looked so weak. So I thought 'OK I'll take a short'.
> Usually when they break. They break. I think maybe it was a bit of an all or nothing.




Bad trade. Even worse that you made a profit. Here's why.

"I never take ones like this." "Not sure if a stupid trade." "Not one in my playbook."

Answered your own question. You're even anxious for confirmation from us that "you done good, son".

This was not a trade. This was a punt that made money.

Why did you trade? Hungry to put one on?


FWIW, this sort of move is where most of my $ come from but it's the pyramiding on the way down that does it, not the punt on the entry.


----------



## Ves

MichaelD said:


> Bad trade. Even worse that you made a profit. Here's why.
> 
> "I never take ones like this." "Not sure if a stupid trade." "Not one in my playbook."
> 
> Answered your own question. You're even anxious for confirmation from us that "you done good, son".
> .



Are you so sure?   All of the statements that you are quoting sound like they are from the emotional thought process from the right side of the brain.

The logical thought process would look at the chart and see that it is sloping towards down towards the right side of the screen.  So what's the problem of shorting a down trend? 

Psycho-analysis can be framed in any context you want it to be,  in other words.

You remarked earlier in this thread, Michael,  that you often did the opposite of what your emotions told you,  so what's the difference here?

My main point is that Pav,  you can only provide us with some general statements,  that we can match to our pre-conceptions of you as a trader or person,  but they're not really accurate enough for us to make the decision for you.... only you can know whether it was the right trade for your approach / system.


----------



## DrapSnagon

Hello again people,

The last 10 pages have been interesting 

And WHY doesn't this forum have multiple threads? Lord, it's a nightmare trying to follow the conversation when several people are trying to talk to several others about several different topics. Sigh.​
Anyhoo:- MichaelID particularly ... 

Please consider moving to the SPI ASAP. I won't claim any practical expertise with CFDs, because during the time I was trading futures, these guys were embryonic. Since then, the MF Global fiasco confirmed my initial view, which was that it's just plain wrong to have the settlement facility provided by the market maker in ANYTHING. 

I view the CFD market as the equivalent of Cash Converters, compared to the SFE (now ASX, obviously) being the equivalent of the Reserve Bank. In that model, a futures broker occupies a status not unlike the institutional or corporate arm of CBA or Westpac or whatever.

A CFD Provider, as a market maker, values their offer on the basis of whatever they like:- much the same as Cash Converters will value your trumpet or guitar or family silverware. Competition means they will be more aggressive in CFDs, but the principle is the same.

The SFE doesn't value the SPI at all:- it leaves that to 3rd party market makers for some instruments, or to the pool of buyers and sellers for others {most of the time}.

An OTC CFD Provider settles your account only so long as it is able to do so from its own resources:- if it gets itself into trouble somehow {usually counterparty default or house trading}, you can stand in the queue to talk to the liquidator like everyone else. 

That's the risk.

As for price, I used 25 SPI contracts as my "capital" and got a rate of less than $6/contract, many years ago. I can't recall how many trades I did annually, but it was in the hundreds, not the thousands. I wasn't a big player at all and had no cause to negotiate a particularly wonderful deal with my broker. Therefore, I assume this was about the going rate for a repeat customer:- perhaps one or two levels below the casual punter paying retail price. 

That's the cost argument.

As for execution, I used the Marketcast feed, Prospecta for charting & data prep and LQuay was my broker. I suspect none of these exist anymore, sorry. 

The main attraction at the time was the ability to trade [almost] 24x7. This eliminated the most annoying feature of the ASX (stocks OR derivatives) which was the gap between yesterday's close and today's open [day sessions]. The SPI overnight tracked a hybrid of the DAX/CAC, then the FTSE, and then the DJIA/NYSE/NASDAQ. The icing on the cake was that it also responded to major moves in CBOT/CME/LME and other commodity markets while the ASX was dormant. Essentially, it aggregated all these into a single number which was tradeable because it had liquidity up to 25 SPI contracts at all hours of our night, and integrity in pricing to within a few pips of the underlying instruments.

OK, this only worked well until about 2008, when a disconnect between our market and the rest of the world started to impact the model. However, I suspect {admittedly without any hard evidence} that as the rest of the world returns to something close to trend, the correlation between the ASX/SPI and everyone else is starting to re-assert itself. If that's true, then I reckon anyone who can meet the capital requirements of trading the SPI should do so in a heartbeat, and leave the CFD market to those who are thinking about graduating from Keno.

Snap


----------



## MichaelD

Ves said:


> The logical thought process would look at the chart and see that it is sloping towards down towards the right side of the screen.  So what's the problem of shorting a down trend?




I have no problem at all with shorting a downtrend. It's what I do.

The problem is in not following pre-thought out trading rules. First it's an unplanned entry ("not in my playbook"). Then it's a stop that's not taken ("It'll come good. The market's wrong"). Then it's ruin.

The worst thing a trader can do is profit from a trade which doesn't follow their rules as it reinforces poor trader behaviour.


I follow my rules. Always. With one *very rare* exception where I'll exit a trade early where;
 - my entire being is screaming at me to stay in the trade or to add to the trade
 - all the news screams at me to stay in the trade as its a sure thing
 - even better if the stockmarket makes it out of the Business section of the news and onto the front page screaming "the sky is falling" or "blue skies forever".
 - my palms are sweaty and my heart is racing as I close the trade and I'm cursing myself with every fibre of my being whilst I'm closing the trade as to how stupid I'm being 
THAT meets my "Hail Mary" rule criterion.

Only happens once or twice a year.


----------



## Ves

MichaelD said:


> I have no problem at all with shorting a downtrend. It's what I do.
> 
> The problem is in not following pre-thought out trading rules. First it's an unplanned entry ("not in my playbook"). Then it's a stop that's not taken ("It'll come good. The market's wrong"). Then it's ruin.



I'm not sure,  is Pav trading a mechanical system or is he a discretionary trader?   He might not have hard rules as such in that case. You're right if he did,  it would be a mistake to take something out of his rules.   I'm just assuming that the line of questioning that he took means that he is a discretionary trader.   I don't remember reading any hard trading rules if he has them,  and I'm sorry for interfering in this discussion if he does,  because I'm not a technical trader,  but just an interested observer who uses a very different long-term style.

- - - Updated - - -



DrapSnagon said:


> Snap



PS: nothing of use to add to your post.  But hi,  Kryton!!!


----------



## DrapSnagon

DO NOT MIS-SPELL MY NAME WITH "O" WHERE THERE SHOULD ONLY BE "E"

OK, just joshing you. I guess after everyone else reads this response, there'll be yet another reason to structure this forum  in a more readable format. Let's leave it there.

Snap

PS:- Just previewed this post and it looks ugly. Apologies for being too old to understand (or care).


----------



## pavilion103

I am a discretionary trader.

I understand completely that not following my own setups and emotionally not being sure about entry is wrong.

The purpose of posting this one is not really to ask "did I emotionally trade poorly". But is this a setup worthy of consideration (from other traders perspectives).

I know people can't know how I trade within my system blah blah..... But as an isolated setup is it one worth considering adding to the playbook and trading when the context is right?

Why do people always think that others a post charts for a pat on the back or validation? What a stupid assumption (no offense). 
Would have thought that I couldn't be any more direct and obvious in communicating that I'm seeking constructive criticism.


----------



## Macro Polo

cynic said:


> Those small financing credits you're getting would be for short positions. Be aware that the interest charges for long positions are considerably higher!
> 
> Also note, that debits in lieu of dividends are applied to short positions (credits in lieu for long). Credits/debits in lieu of dividends will normally coincide with a corresponding change in the cfd pricing, so this might not be too much of an issue.




Just on this - are you saying index CFD's pay out dividends? Or, are you just talking about if you buy individual shares via CFD? 

Similarly do index futures pay out an aggregated dividend? 

I've found it difficult to get a clear answer on this, any info appreciated - cheers.


----------



## CanOz

pavilion103 said:


> Looking for feedback on that trade when people get time.
> 
> Honest feedback appreciated.





I have no idea what the market did after this, but if you're going to short at the lows then the only thing I might have done differently is to try and get in on that up trust that would have a few longs trapped....that way if the ensuing stop run just trapped shorts you'd been in before most of them and able to get out easier....of course easy to say in hindsight....


----------



## tech/a

pavilion103 said:


> Looking for feedback on that trade when people get time.
> 
> Honest feedback appreciated.




Couple of things to add to your ponderings


----------



## MichaelD

Macro Polo said:


> Just on this - are you saying index CFD's pay out dividends? Or, are you just talking about if you buy individual shares via CFD?




When a dividend is paid on any of the constituents of the index -->

Index CFDs pay out a dividend if you are long. This is applied as a credit to your account.
Index CFDs deduct a dividend if you are short. This is applied as a debit to your account.

At the time of dividend application, the Index CFD price gaps down, usually trivially, rarely quite a few ticks (eg NAB dividend for the ASX200).


I presume the same applies for Index Futures given the CFDs are pretending to be the real thing.


----------



## pavilion103

tech/a said:


> Couple of things to add to your ponderings  <img src="https://www.aussiestockforums.com/forums/attachment.php?attachmentid=56628"/>  <img src="https://www.aussiestockforums.com/forums/attachment.php?attachmentid=56629"/>




Thanks for that.
Yeh I had that hard support area market out.
I was under no illusions that there was not much more downside potential.
Could have tried to hold for an extra 20 or 30 points but didn't bother (plus wanted to go to bed).

One if the most beneficial thing you have taught me over my learning has been the larger context. I notice you just started a thread on this too (tops and bottoms). Understanding the bigger picture and the context in which one is trading is so important.


----------



## MichaelD

DrapSnagon said:


> Please consider moving to the SPI ASAP.




The more I think about it, the more I agree with the advice of the experienced posters here.

I stated before that the CFD spread doesn't hurt me but upon reflection; it doesn't hurt my entry to any significant degree, but it does affect my exit, particularly after hours where I have up to a 5 point spread to cross before I exit vs I believe a 1-2 point spread on the SPI.

I can risk manage positions significantly better with a tighter spread.


A second objection I had was that to stay the same size as I currently trade, I would need to increase my capital base x5, but that assumed I can't do better risk control. That's now a work in progress.


Thinking about the counterparty risk is probably what has tipped me over the edge here.


The first significant step for me is deciding whether the SPI is the instrument for me to go to (liquidity, spread, what's the same as the Australia 200 Cash CFD, what's different), so I am in the process of getting a data feed with DOM and will be watching the two markets in parallel for a while.


----------



## Ves

DrapSnagon said:


> DO NOT MIS-SPELL MY NAME WITH "O" WHERE THERE SHOULD ONLY BE "E"
> 
> OK, just joshing you.




You SMMMMEEEEEE HEEEEEEEEEE!

Hehe,  good show.  Been watching a few this month.


----------



## Macro Polo

MichaelD said:


> When a dividend is paid on any of the constituents of the index -->
> 
> Index CFDs pay out a dividend if you are long. This is applied as a credit to your account.
> Index CFDs deduct a dividend if you are short. This is applied as a debit to your account.
> 
> At the time of dividend application, the Index CFD price gaps down, usually trivially, rarely quite a few ticks (eg NAB dividend for the ASX200).
> 
> 
> I presume the same applies for Index Futures given the CFDs are pretending to be the real thing.




Thanks, that was what I was looking for


----------



## skc

MichaelD said:


> At the time of dividend application, the Index CFD price gaps down, usually trivially, rarely quite a few ticks (eg NAB dividend for the ASX200).




Remember while it's called a "dividend" it's not really a dividend per se. It's a cash flow adjustment to your account mimicking the effects of a dividend being paid. In my past trading CFDs I've done a few calculations of the constituient's weighting in the index and my calculated amount of the ex-dividend effect on the index... and the cashflow adjustment made by IG was reasonably fair.



MichaelD said:


> I presume the same applies for Index Futures given the CFDs are pretending to be the real thing.




No. Index futures do not adjust for dividend. Futures also don't charge you for interests. That's why you see the real Mar14 SPI value is quite different to the ASX200 cash value at the moment. 

You should read up more on the nature of a futures contract while you are slowing making your migration.


----------



## DrapSnagon

skc said:


> You should read up more on the nature of a futures contract while you are slowing making your migration.




skc is correct.

Here's why ...

The SPI is settled on the basis of a _price_ index (ie:- the XJO), whereas the CFD equivalent is settled on the basis of a _pseudo-accumulation_ index (the XNT). The idea is that the instrument reflects the primary asset if held to maturity. In the case of a CFD, the maturity is "never", so if they didn't credit you the cash-value of a dividend over time, in theory you would lose that value over time.

In the SPI's case, contracts expire each quarter. Although you can hold a position in the SPI for much longer than this, you are actually de-facto settling one and buying another each quarter. Every time you do so, the value is "reset" to inherently include the effect on the XJO via dividends, capital movements and rebalancing. Because it is a futures contract, that effect flows into the price as we approach the end of each quarter and thus appears seamless _prima facie_. Much like an options position that self-adjusts its price for expiry. 

An analogy would be buying a car. You have two identical vehicles on offer:- one has 11 month's rego on it and the other has only a month. Would you pay more for the one with a longer dated rego? Of course you would. However, when the Red Book is being compiled, do the publishers take any notice of how many cars of that type changed hands with 11 month's rego vs those with only 1 month? No they don't. They just publish a single price.

That's a way of describing the difference between a price index and an accumulation index. A pretty clumsy one, I admit, but it's late and I'm tired.

To provoke further analysis, think about the rebalancing of the ASX200 every quarter. Does the SPI make any sort of internal adjustment for the fact that ABC has been deleted and XYZ has been included, even though the two companies might have slightly different market caps but enormously different earnings or dividend prospects? No, it doesn't. All it cares about is the numerical level of the index at settlement.

I'm not explaining this very well, am I? Must be bedtime.

Snap.


----------



## MichaelD

skc said:


> No. Index futures do not adjust for dividend. Futures also don't charge you for interests. That's why you see the real Mar14 SPI value is quite different to the ASX200 cash value at the moment.




(+DrapSnagon detailed info)

Good information to know. I was wondering why there were differences in price there.

It's the stuff like this that I need to understand before making the transition to the SPI. These are the quirks and characteristics of the instrument that differ from the Australia 200 Cash - what I was referring to when I described the SPI as a new instrument that I needed to learn. The Australia 200 Cash hasn't surprised me in quite a while.


Interestingly, I have not the slightest hesitation in opening a 10 contract ($250/tick) position on the Australia 200, and yet right now the thought of doing the same size on the SPI fills me with dread.


----------



## pavilion103

I've got commitments 4 nights a week now. 
I'll only be on Thursdays. 
When daylight savings comes I will be able to trade at least the first 2 hours of each night. 
Most of my trades come in this time anyway so it works well. 

I took a sneaky one last night when I was out. 
I saw the setup and for 4 point risk I thought it was worth it. 
My only trade for the week.


----------



## pavilion103

Upwards momentum on the FTSE looks to be slowing down. 
I'm inclined to look for a short trade as my next trade to hold over a few days. 
Let's see how it consolidates from here.


----------



## pavilion103

Taking a short. 
Initial 6.5 point risk. 
Now reduced to 4.5 points. 
We'll see how it goes. 
If it breaks down I anticipate some potential. 

Opened near the short term support/resistance level. 
Fell and then consolidated. 
I was looking for a short near open which I didn't get. 
Waited for the consolidation and then took this one. 

Good RR potential. Especially given that the risk is down to 4.5 points now. 

Upward momentum stalling a little on daily chart. 
Looking to consider shorts if the RR is good enough. 
Will be aggressive with limiting risk on any potential trades long and short given the position of the daily chart.


----------



## pavilion103

Out 6606 - 1 point loss. 

Short again. 
6601. 
Bigger initial risk, so looking to move stop ASAP. 

Price 6597. 
Stop 6604 (3 point risk).

- - - Updated - - -

Didn't hold nerve on first position. Good that it was only a 1 point loss, but the initial stop I had of 6611.5 was perfect. Wouldn't have been touched. 
I guess the balance between minimising risk from the get go or holding firm. 
In the end worked out OK overall. 
Just had to be ready for the re-entry.

- - - Updated - - -


----------



## pavilion103

Weekly. 
Good downside potential if things go well. 
No real support coming up.


----------



## pavilion103

It pulled back! 
Stopped at BE 6601.


----------



## kid hustlr

geepers it looks pretty sick to me.

bounce around here then come off in the US session perhaps?


----------



## pavilion103

Keen to get in! 
Down only 5 points for 3 attempted shorts. 

I should have just held my nerve on the first one. Always best to enter closer to open!
Would be 10+ points up and wouldn't have had to have lifted a finger all night from then lol!


----------



## kid hustlr

S&P has that similar looking sick pattern. these things never play out at you'd expect but boy equities are starting look heavy


----------



## kid hustlr

selling the break probably ok here but im not going to do it.


----------



## pavilion103

I've sold the break. I don't think it's a bad move in this case RR.

The only problem with getting in late on these moves is that 
1) the initial stop is too wide.
OR
2) the initial stop is not in an optimal place and can get easily taken out.

That's why getting on at the start or at a really good place as resistance is so important.

The you don't stress as it pulls back because 
1) your stop is at BE
AND
2) you're stop is a reasonable distance from price action that makes sense from a technical point of view (you're not sitting there just hoping it won't hit).


----------



## pavilion103

You not on Skype tonight?
Thursdays is the only day I'm on for the next 5 or 6 weeks, you should come on next Thursday. 
Good to chat things through as usual.


----------



## pavilion103

That exact problem has killed my trade.
Taken out.


----------



## CanOz

Data out in 30 minutes....


----------



## pavilion103

Don't mind being 5 or 6 points down for 4 or 5 genuine attempts at a position. 

Putting yourself in position for a move is a good thing. 

Probably could have lost 20 or 30 points trying to take the same trades when starting out in futures. 

5 or 6 does nothing to erode the profits. 

Watching from a distance until next Thursday 
Can't wait to get back on "full-time"


----------



## pavilion103

A good overnight trade. 

Was looking for a long from the start. 
Missed the initial trap - long setup. 
Got the 4 point low-risk entry at the bottom of the triangle consolidation. 
I wasn't actually even online, I was in a class and got home at the perfect time.


----------



## kid hustlr

holy smoke nice


----------



## CanOz

agree... nice trade there


----------



## pavilion103

On these volatile days I've found that getting on a good trade reasonably early and holding it has been a profitable approach. 

Discerning the trading day's direction early is the key.


----------



## pavilion103

I'll post this for the benefit of everyone. 
I welcome any thoughts on it. 
Here are two of my setups. 
I won't reveal everything about them. 
I have many more notes in an excel file. 
This is the basic outline of it without giving too much away. 
Having said that, it's fairly basic. Nothing complicated or secret. 

Here is my analysis on the 3 min chart and then the 5 min and 10 min to show a bit of different perspective. 
If all confirm, then good. 

SETUP 1


----------



## pavilion103

SETUP 2


----------



## kid hustlr

jeez pretty good looking short set up just after half hour in then.


----------



## pavilion103

Got home now.

I was watching for the first 45 mins of trading.

Wanted to short badly. Didn't get enough confirmation. It pushed back up anyway. Easy to say now buying dare say I would have shorted at 6772 had I been on. Stop 6779.5


----------



## pavilion103

Anyone else thinking a short tonight?
Maybe a push up on open either near the high of yesterday or just below.

Not sure what range we will get tonight. Not expecting huge.


----------



## cynic

pavilion103 said:


> Anyone else thinking a short tonight?
> Maybe a push up on open either near the high of yesterday or just below.
> 
> Not sure what range we will get tonight. Not expecting huge.




I've been short on the DAX since the middle of last week, and up until recently those shorts have been burning my account!

Generally I prefer boring (market monotony is easier to manage) , but this should prove to be an interesting night just the same!


----------



## pavilion103

I should look at the DAX. Purely for more trading opportunities. 

Do you ever look at the FTSE?


----------



## cynic

pavilion103 said:


> I should look at the DAX. Purely for more trading opportunities.
> 
> Do you ever look at the FTSE?




Yes I do!

The FTSE is a soporific sloth in comparison to that misbaved son of a bourse from a heretofore undiscovered level of hades, namely the demonic DAX. 
Abandon hope all ye who trade this bourse!

The DAX demands more than 99% of my attention. At times my EURO account will experience five figure drawdowns (often within a mere one or two days!), whereas the FTSE is sufficiently tame to only require periodic monitoring. (Daily fluctuations in my Sterling account are rarely greater than three figures).


----------



## cynic

I've sometimes noticed my DAX drawdowns coinciding with reports of healthy profits by a certain T/A trading black duck! 

Anyone enjoying the benefits of said duck's tutelage might have better prospects when challenging this bourse!


----------



## pavilion103

You talk about the DAX being challenging, but surely you're doing well on it. 
Or else you'd be trading the FTSE if you find that easier?


----------



## cynic

pavilion103 said:


> You talk about the DAX being challenging, but surely you're doing well on it.
> Or else you'd be trading the FTSE if you find that easier?




Did I neglect to inform you that I'm moonlightling as a masochist?
Also did you overlook what I said about demonic sons of bourses from heretofore undiscovered levels of Hades?

Happily I am trading the FTSE as well. FYTD the FTSE accounts for over 75% of my trading profits.


----------



## pavilion103

Short FTSE 6796

Looking like it could provide a good short.

Daily chart may need some more consolidation before any decent fall however.


----------



## cynic

Thanks for the update pav.

Yesterday my grail narrowly missed an opportunity to short the Dax at 9750 (June futures).
That DAX continues to be an annoyingly demonic son of a bourse from lower Hades!


----------



## CanOz

pavilion103 said:


> Short FTSE 6796
> 
> Looking like it could provide a good short.
> 
> Daily chart may need some more consolidation before any decent fall however.




Nice gap play soon on the Dax...


----------



## pavilion103

Exited 6765.5 early this morning at the S/R level I identified when I took the trade.

30 points 

May post a chart tonight when I do my usual analysis.


----------



## kid hustlr

pavilion103 said:


> Exited 6765.5 early this morning at the S/R level I identified when I took the trade.
> 
> 30 points
> 
> May post a chart tonight when I do my usual analysis.




Was wondering if you stop got ticked @ 6790.5 was worried for a second.

Nice trading.


----------



## pavilion103

I did a couple of things that could have cost me. 

Remember I mentioned adding a contract on the break lower?
I did that. Only lost 3 points though. 

At the same time I moved the stop on my first position to 6790.5.

Then I thought that this is the exact error that I've made in the past and that 90 may just get taken out. 

So I thought I'd move my stop back to 96. 
But then I thought I'd take off the 3 points I lost and move it to 93. 
Not exactly my finest trading haha. 

Fortunately it only reached 92 and I stayed in by 2 ticks. 

Leaving it at 96 was the wisest thing to do. 
Next time I just won't touch it at all!

Woke up early. 
Saw it around 65 and thought that that was the original goal at the start of the trade so I'd take it. 

Wouldn't have minded having one to hold but figured I'd be on tonight anyway so hopefully could capture a good trade if it does smash lower.


----------



## pavilion103

I think now would be a good time to get some discussion happening.

What are people's thoughts on the respective futures indexes that you are trading?

The FTSE is struggling at resistance.
The XAO looks to have mushroomed over a bit too.

Who is anticipating another strong push down?
Anyone planning to prepare for a position trade?


----------



## CanOz

pavilion103 said:


> I think now would be a good time to get some discussion happening.
> 
> What are people's thoughts on the respective futures indexes that you are trading?
> 
> The FTSE is struggling at resistance.
> The XAO looks to have mushroomed over a bit too.
> 
> Who is anticipating another strong push down?
> Anyone planning to prepare for a position trade?




The ES is a good one to start with, its in a tight bracket and looks ready to pop. As for up or down, no idea but its a good time to be paying attention if you want to trade a break from a decent range.


----------



## CanOz

The DAX is looking much the same but with a few key levels that everyone will be watching... 9800, 9600 and 9500.


----------



## CanOz

The FTSE looks the most trendy, with two ranges stacked on each other its got some stuff to get through before going much lower...

Some key levels are the range extremes....6857, 6700 and a thin area at 6690 to 6650.


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## pavilion103

Good work.
Much appreciated


----------



## CanOz

Currency futures and what used to be the poster child for the carry trade...the 6A 

Getting close to the bottom of the bracket and .8900


----------



## CanOz

Just to complete the picture, here are the rest of the stars....

The dollar index with the Aussie and the Euro...and Gold, Oil and Bonds...

Looks like the bonds have/are breaking out.


----------



## CanOz

Things look ripe for a pullback, all we need is a catalyst....


----------



## pavilion103

I'm no convinced that the short is on right now. 
But I'm also not convinced that it isn't. 

I'll be on the FTSE tonight. 
If it's a great setup I'll go 2 contracts. 

If it pushes up on the open and provides a short, I'll take it. 


Will post a chart if something good happens.


----------



## Newt

CanOz said:


> Nice gap play soon on the Dax...




Thanks for pointing this out last night Canoz.  I was sim trading after the fact (after getting home later - does it really count if you're simulating sim trading!!! ) and thought there was a classic pin bar and reversal scenario on 3min chart.  Wouldn't have registered re the gapping down around 1940 though unless you had rubbed our nose in it.  Not something I'm psyched into looking for currently.....


----------



## CanOz

Newt said:


> Thanks for pointing this out last night Canoz.  I was sim trading after the fact (after getting home later - does it really count if you're simulating sim trading!!! ) and thought there was a classic pin bar and reversal scenario on 3min chart.  Wouldn't have registered re the gapping down around 1940 though unless you had rubbed our nose in it.  Not something I'm psyched into looking for currently.....




GAPs are quite frequent on the FDAX, Z (FTSE) and the FESX. Great way to put the session into context as well depending on how easy the gap fills, doesn't fill etc....


----------



## Lone Wolf

pavilion103 said:


> I'm no convinced that the short is on right now.
> But I'm also not convinced that it isn't.
> 
> I'll be on the FTSE tonight.
> If it's a great setup I'll go 2 contracts.
> 
> If it pushes up on the open and provides a short, I'll take it.
> 
> 
> Will post a chart if something good happens.




How did you go? A nice move there for people who can actually trade (i.e. not me).

I tried to short it after the first failed break of the high. Then I went off and had dinner, so missed the third push up which would have turned out very nice.


----------



## CanOz

Yeah, wow didn't that get hammered....i went over to say hello to a mate i haven't seen for a while and i get back and see its dropped 80+ points!, the Dax as well.

Heavy news day i guess!


----------



## pavilion103

Very emotionally unstable right now!!!!

Devastating. 

Identified it all. Knew it was coming. 

Got in at 6765ish. 

First push down to 6735. 
Stop to BE. 
It pushes back up to 
Around 6745 and I take the profits. 
20 points. 
I figured that I'd re-enter. 

Didn't get the chance. 

Completely on tilt as I saw it breaking lower. 
I chase it, throwing away my money. 

I lose the 20 points plus another 5. 

As it sits I would have been up 50 points if I just HELD. 
As it really stands I'm down 5. 


Not sure what I think. 
Not sure why I tried to bank 20 points when my whole aim was to maximise a big push down. 

You guys have seen some of my good trading. 
You guys have seen some of my bad trading. 


Need to put this behind me. 
Thank God I didn't lose 20 or 30 points.


----------



## Newt

Managed to (sim trading) ride the DAX down over last 15 mins.  Almost have my demo a/c back even now 
Its one thing to see it consolidating and "coiling up" tighter and tighter as volume falls, but I'm still getting only slightly familiar with how fast these things move when the tide changes and they break out of a range!  (in on the way down @9550 which was probably was too late).


----------



## pavilion103

Trading 1 contract is BS. 
It is psychologically challenging. 
It unnecessarily increases the decision making process. 

From now on a mandatory 2 contracts for trades near the daily high/low near the open. 

Maybe it's not a bad problem to have when my worse problem is not maximising gains rather than bleeding losses. 
But it's still a huge issue nontheless. 

This is me


----------



## pavilion103

Off to have a warm bath and RELAX. 

(And some Bach should do the trick)


----------



## kid hustlr

if it makes you feel any better i had a long weighted spread on which i puked out at almost the stone cold low which cost me 1500 bucks today. it would now be almost twice that in my favour


----------



## pavilion103

kid hustlr said:


> if it makes you feel any better i had a long weighted spread on which i puked out at almost the stone cold low which cost me 1500 bucks today. it would now be almost twice that in my favour




Doesn't make me feel any better lol......

If one of us made some damn money today I'd feel better.


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## kid hustlr

im long the ftse @ 14 here stop is b/e not looking for much out of this but see what happens, still looks heavy to me


----------



## cynic

cynic said:


> Thanks for the update pav.
> 
> Yesterday my grail narrowly missed an opportunity to short the Dax at 9750 (June futures).
> That DAX continues to be an annoyingly demonic son of a bourse from lower Hades!




Darn that DAX!

"Missed by that much!"
"The one that got away was this BIG!" (Says cynic whilst stretching arms wide indicating enormity of the one that got away.)


----------



## Newt

I guess it isn't surprising to anyone with half decent futures trading experience, but the small losses or stops sure add up quick at times.  The harder you try to BE or reduce losses the more likely you get stopped of course.  At least I'm reassured you guys aren't bragging about the millions you're making!


----------



## kid hustlr

Newt said:


> I guess it isn't surprising to anyone with half decent futures trading experience, but the small losses or stops sure add up quick at times.  The harder you try to BE or reduce losses the more likely you get stopped of course.  At least I'm reassured you guys aren't bragging about the millions you're making!




dont worry about Pav he complains when hes making money hes doing fine!

i wouldnt let the small losses worry you, keep managing the risk and when its going your way be patient and you will make back all the small losses and more.

updated stop now @ 20.5 i feel like im fighting against the tied here contextually being long so keeping it tight


----------



## kid hustlr

out @ 28

14 points least i made some money on one market today


----------



## pavilion103

kid hustlr said:


> out @ 28
> 
> 14 points least i made some money on one market today




Good to recognise a good setup and pick up a few points. 

I considered it. I turned my laptop back on and was starring at it lol. 
But I was so on tilt I turned it straight back off. 
Probably a wise move most times. 

I know every trade is a new trade but the times I've been most profitable have been when I've made money on that first move (say 40 or 50 points). 
Then I see a bottom with ultra high volume, something resembling support. 
Then I can confidently throw 10 points on it, knowing I'll still be 30 or 40 up for the night. 

In this case if you'd left it would have been a whopping 70 or 80 points!

I didn't anticipate it bouncing back so strongly however. 
I was worried it would smash lower.  


All this goes to show is 
1) how much potential there is
2) how leaving a trade at BE overnight can yield enormous results. It just takes discipline. 
I've seen so many 10 or 15 point wins rob me of 50 or 60 just because I didn't hold. 
In this case though (Kid, I'm talking to you), we didn't anticipate a huge move back up so you probably took it on what you thought was  a pullback. 


I've been leaving trades well recently. 
I need to be better. 
Last night was inexcusable. 
But with every trade I learn a lesson. 
I'm feeling good.

- - - Updated - - -



kid hustlr said:


> dont worry about Pav he complains when hes making money hes doing fine!




haha. I can't deny it. 
I'm a perfectionist. 
Don't take my emotions too seriously. 
I'm not really in a position to complain


----------



## kid hustlr

Yeah I mean in hindsight I left plenty in the bag (and I mean plenty holy smoke it just kept going!) but you can only trade it as you see it at the time. Plan the trade execute the trade.

For me we had durable goods orders out @ 12.30 then yellen @ 2am and contextually i thought were very heavy. All these factors led to not wanting to hold a long for any period of time, in hindsight i was wrong and moving forward perhaps I'll adjust my plan but at the end of the day if i plan a trade and execute it to my plan then I can't hate on myself.

Completely agree with you about the opportunity fwiw.


----------



## pavilion103

You're right.
Make a plan.
Execute it.
Job done.

They key is make sure the plan is the best one.
I think in that spot a 15 point win (if that was the intention) wasn't worth it in terms of RR.
You would have had to have only had a 5 point initial risk to make it 3:1. And there was no 5 point setup that made sense IMO.

I like the idea of letting most run.
Once it gets to 30 or 40 points then start to think about locking it in (eg tighter stop), with the chance it could get out to say 50-60.

But in this case, I was the same in thinking that it looked heavy. So I completely understand. But I just think you always need to look at RR pre trade.


----------



## kid hustlr

pavilion103 said:


> You're right.
> Make a plan.
> Execute it.
> Job done.
> 
> They key is make sure the plan is the best one.
> I think in that spot a 15 point win (if that was the intention) wasn't worth it in terms of RR.
> You would have had to have only had a 5 point initial risk to make it 3:1. And there was no 5 point setup that made sense IMO.
> 
> I like the idea of letting most run.
> Once it gets to 30 or 40 points then start to think about locking it in (eg tighter stop), with the chance it could get out to say 50-60.
> 
> But in this case, I was the same in thinking that it looked heavy. So I completely understand. But I just think you always need to look at RR pre trade.




fwiw my stop was initially 5 ticks so I viewed it as 3:1 I still think more shorter term than you at this stage as a general rule. anyway enough jibber in this thread ill pm you


----------



## CanOz

No really sure what today will bring but if the DAX can get some mom behind a push higher we could test 9700 again. Yesty was a big day though, so a little pause could be on the cards, but it is end of the month.


----------



## pavilion103

I won't be on much until April.
Interested to see if these indexes do push up now


----------



## Newt

Hey Pav, I'm curious if you still trend trade ASX stocks, or if you've switched (or plan to) making futures your main focus?  From my very limited experience it seems like the two would complement each other nicely in terms of short/long term returns, volatitility of returns, leverage and capital requirements, risk and many other factors.


I'm about 12 months behind you in my thinking, but experience to date suggests it would be wise to trade small in futures for at least 6 months to 2 years before getting too serious about changing existing strategies.  Futures seems to require a much greater discretionary approach which is inherently difficult to backtest, thus my innate caution.


Considering it was only 12 months ago you first ran the ruler over futures (if I understand the beginnings of this thread correctly), then a few months later started trading, would you mind giving a summary of how your "transition to futures trading" experience has gone over the last year?


----------



## pavilion103

OK.

ASX equities. 
I do still trade them. But less frequently. 
I will only take the absolute best setups when the index is looking strong.
With a very small account I've only taken 7 trades in 2014 for an overall 9.6% return. Very happy with that. 

My medium term focus is:
Trade futures - where I can make the most money, with the least capital, in the quickest time frame. 
Put this money into a separate account and trade equities with it. 
Continuing to trade equities is certainly an important part of my overall strategy. 


The focus is 90% on futures at the moment.


----------



## pavilion103

The transition to futures trading. 


I'd say it's been a successful one. 

Adapting to it at first was a little challenging. I am used to trading momentum breakouts with equities and that doesn't work with futures. There are so many false breaks. I learnt very quickly that using support and resistance levels to identify high RR opportunities was the way to go. This took a bit of adaptation for me. 

As with starting out in stocks, a lot of banging my head against a wall early on trying to "get it". I feel without exaggeration that greater clarity has come every single day. 

I am now at the point where I am capable of capitalizing on decent 30-60 point moves and I have a strategy that is highly profitable. I see it like the goose that lays the golden eggs. I now have a goose. 

My goals over the coming months are:
1) Greater consistency
2) Letting the big opportunities run
3) Cutting out the poorer opportunities that I take and only taking the very good ones. 
4) Trading 2 contracts on the very good opportunities to allow me to manage the trade with greater flexibility. 


Once I am satisfied with this I will go from 1 contract to 2 contracts for all trades. 
I see 1 contract as one goose. I see 2 contracts as two geese. 

This is my focus over the coming 6 months probably. 



LONGER TERM - don't take this as gospel, but just a few thoughts going around in my head. I have no idea if it will pan out like this or not..............

If I prove to be consistent and highly profitable, I will look to increase the number of contracts very cautiously and very slowly over time. 

If all goes to plan, I hope in 2-2.5 years to be trading maybe 5 contracts. 
50 points per week x 5 contracts x $18.5 = $4,500 approx. = $240,000 p.a. approx. 

Meanwhile pumping money into my equities account which hopefully can make 20% or so p.a. 

That is the goal. 

Certainly want to leave employment within this time frame (only working 4 days at present). 




These are just all thoughts though guys. 
This is just me thinking aloud. 
I post it because it's interesting. 
We all have our own thoughts and goals, just putting mine out there.


----------



## Newt

Thanks Pav.  Like the way you think (short, medium, long term plans) with focus on risk aversion.  The trail of breadcrumbs you've left for others here is commendable.  

9.6% from ASX trading is pretty good going this year to my eye, and I've seen glimses of what might be possible in futures with decent discipline and knowledge.  Thanks for taking the time for 12months update!


----------



## pavilion103

Appreciate your thoughts. 
I love a community of like minded passionate people. 
It is comments like yours that makes me believe posting is worthwhile. 

ASX (9.6%) - is such a small sample size of 7 trades. I've no doubt if I took too many more I'd probably be making a loss for the year. I'm trading none now. I had a few good looking setups but most have failed. I'll continue treading cautiously. 


I want to emphasise the work and analysis that goes into my futures "study" and "analysis". 
I don't just come on and trade each night. I am constantly writing up charts of all great trades I've taken, or potential ones that I've missed. I write up charts on all my losses so I can review them and eliminate common mistakes. I save the daily chart each night and the 3 minute intra-day charts. I'm also liaising with Tech/a every now and then via email and sometimes over the phone. 
Then I review all of the above on a regular basis. 
I have master files (or a playbook) of setups. I constantly refine this. 
I have another file where my strategy is written down telling me: when I want to look for long, shorts, remain out of the market; how many points I am willing to risk in each place; how the DJIA should look, how the FTSE index should look; when I'll take profit, when I'll hold, when I'll hold over night, when I want to take a position trade, when I want to take two contract; when I will look at the 3 min, 5 min, 10 min and take setups on each of these time frames etc. 

As you guys can see from the errors and poor trades I've posted, I am still very much clarifying and refining these things. I have the bones of it but need to get clearer and clearer. This is happening. 
When it is consolidated then I anticipate very consistent and strong results. 


This thread is a very raw one. 
My good trades.
My poor trades.
My irrational emotions. 
My bravado and over-enthusiasm.
It's starts with a beginner on his journey.  
I try to be no one, achieve anything. Just post my journey as it unfolds.


----------



## pavilion103

An example of my trade analysis. 
This is one that I did NOT take (27-02-2014). 
In the other tabs I have the trade of the individual chart (a larger version of the one at the top under setup). 
I also have the 3 minute chart and 5 minute chart. 
This is a trade I thought was most clear on the 10 min chart so I did my analysis on this one. 
Most trades are analysed on 3 min chart. 
I try to do at least one of these a night. 
This night I did 2. The short and the long.


----------



## pavilion103

And this was the previous short of the same night. 
This is relevant as we discussed this trade 2 nights ago in here. 

This is just a screenshot. The file is in Excel with more extensive information.


----------



## pavilion103

Example of failed trades. 

This is the WORST setup I've ever taken (not biggest loss).

This was one from a while ago. 
I anticipated a short at the start of the day and got blinded and tried to take it at all costs. 
This is completely embarrassing. I haven't had anything close to as bad as this setup!
Lucky I got out for not much damage.


----------



## pavilion103

So I look to learn from the good by reviewing them. 

And I learn to avoid making the same mistakes by reviewing the failed trades. 

A bad trade is a small price to pay if it means you don't make the same error again. 

Going over these again and again brings great clarity. 

That is all that I will post. 

A glimpse to maybe give new traders an idea of how they can improve and analyse setups. 

The rest I will keep confidential.


----------



## pavilion103

Oh also in terms of profit/loss recording I have an excel file with charts. 

The following tabs:

Each individual trade (P/L) recorded in excel and visual representation (chart)

Each total individual trading day (P/L) recorded in excel and visual representation (chart)

Each total individual week (P/L) recorded in excel and visual representation (chart)

Each total individual month (P/L) recorded in excel and visual representation (chart)


I really love the analysis side of things 

It would no doubt make some people board out of their brains!


----------



## CanOz

pavilion103 said:


> So I look to learn from the good by reviewing them.
> 
> And I learn to avoid making the same mistakes by reviewing the failed trades.




SKC, TH etc., spend allot of time reviewing statistics of their trading, as shown here on ASF previously,  in order to try and ferret out areas to improve, are you doing this as well?


----------



## pavilion103

CanOz said:


> SKC, TH etc., spend allot of time reviewing statistics of their trading, as shown here on ASF previously,  in order to try and ferret out areas to improve, are you doing this as well?




What sort of stats are you referring to? 
I'm open to any ideas for improvement.


----------



## CanOz

pavilion103 said:


> What sort of stats are you referring to?
> I'm open to any ideas for improvement.




I don't know what they use but these come to mind:

Wins/Losses, wins short vs wins long, Max Adverse Excursion, Max Fav Exc., Profit/loss per Time of day, all kinds of stuff you could get into. You want to try and nut out what works and what doesn't in order to do more of what works and less of what doesn't. Its seems most logical to look to the charts for mistakes but they could be in the time of day you're trading/overtrading, etc. Maybe you're better at shorts than longs, etc... etc...


----------



## pavilion103

Look at post 1992. 
This is a start. 

I'm looking at my distributions of wins and losses. 

I've already noticed a correlation between more trades taken per day = less profit/greater losses. 

It's a very basic start. 

Maybe I should make a little note next to each trade with the type of setup it is
e.g. short from initial daily high on open
long from consolidation base 3 hours into the trading day etc. 

Would be beneficial to know how much profit/loss I make per each type of setup.


----------



## Newt

Heck, that's a lot to digest Pav.  I can also relate to your use of Excel - have found to be a great tool for storing old and new knowledge and notes as learning something.  So easy to put in notes, graphics and organise on pages as you say.  Very useful for work (and hobbies) documentation outside traditional spreadsheeting work.

Again - hats off to the trouble you've taken to write this up  
(I certainly appreciated it)


----------



## CanOz

Open?


----------



## pavilion103

FTSE about to come off?


----------



## CanOz

Nah...grind lower and then squeeze the shorts out, barring any news...


----------



## pavilion103

Hmm not so sure.
I'll look and see if there is a gap fill. Well I won't be on, but we'll see how it goes.

I'd want a short if there was a good setup


----------



## CanOz

Holy crap the DAX is off 2% before the cash open...


----------



## CanOz

Well they've covered some shorts now....

Just heard the Russian Micex was down 10%....they also raised their key rate to 7% to stop the Ruble bleeding.


----------



## pavilion103

Took a trade while in class.
Hahaha yeh baby


----------



## pavilion103

had it on my phone. Only 5 min chart. 

6.5 point risk. 

Lucky I had the chance to take it.


----------



## pavilion103

This could well smash lower. 
But I've taken 47 points profit. Out 6665
If I had a 2nd contract I'd leave it. 

Would have taken 2 like I said I would in previous posts. 
But being in class and only having the one chart to go by in a rushed manner, didn't wanna risk 13 points


----------



## pavilion103

2nd short
6666, stop 6669.5
Small risk. 
Hoping for a break lower.


----------



## pavilion103

hmmm.... to leave overnight or not. 

15 or so points up on this second trade. 

I DO NOT want to break my rules by selling here. 
I want to go to bed though haha. 

I will not exit


----------



## pavilion103

No one online. As usual stuck talking to myself 

Ah well!


----------



## cynic

pav, 
Well done, given that you weren't even able to give this night the level of attention it truly needed!

P.S. Did you mean to say "closing" when you said "selling"?
(I thought the trade you were talking about was a short.)


----------



## pavilion103

cynic said:


> pav,
> Well done, given that you weren't even able to give this night the level of attention it truly needed!
> 
> P.S. Did you mean to say "closing" when you said "selling"?
> (I thought the trade you were talking about was a short.)




Yeh sorry. Bought back the short.


----------



## ftw129

pavilion103 said:


> No one online. As usual stuck talking to myself
> 
> Ah well!




Pav you're not by yourself at all it's just a lot of us don't trade this way so have nothing to contribute.

If there's anything I can offer it's that I feel a lot better about the trades that were losers but were traded exactly to my trading plan compared to the winners that I fluked when I bent the rules. Remaining consistent and repeating what works time and time again is where the progress is made.

I enjoy following your thread.


----------



## pavilion103

I would have certainly preferred to have had a few charts up (3 min, 5 min, 10 min)

Clearest signal was on the 3 min. Very clear one. 

It was still good enough on the 5 minute to take. 

I know my setups reasonably well now so it's not like I need to spend so much time and effort identifying them. 

I wouldn't have wanted to take much more than the 6.5 point risk though while on my iPhone like that, while not fully focused on the activity. 

Only annoying thing is I would have taken 2 contracts if at home (part of my plan as of this week for those low risk setups).


----------



## cynic

pavilion103 said:


> Yeh sorry. Bought back the short.




No problems. I did think that was what you meant.

(See!  You weren't just talking to yourself!)


----------



## pavilion103

Stuff it. 

Closed out of the second. 

I'm too tired. 


No regrets now. 


Would take a long if it wasn't so damn late (not that the long will definitely play out!). 

What a nice down move tonight!



Thanks for talking Cynic haha. 
I needed someone.


----------



## pavilion103

I'll try and post my chart tomorrow of why I think the long.


----------



## pavilion103

Would have been long 6652, stop 6643
9 point risk.

Worth taking when having made over 50 points I reckon. Next time.


----------



## Newt

If you've made 50, why push your luck Pav.  Great trades.


----------



## CanOz

pavilion103 said:


> Would have been long 6652, stop 6643
> 9 point risk.
> 
> Worth taking when having made over 50 points I reckon. Next time.




Nice call...

As good as it got for me on the Z today though.


----------



## pavilion103

CanOz said:


> Nice call...
> 
> As good as it got for me on the Z today though.




Can't always cash in :

We had a different bias on open. 


And yeh. That other trade would have been good. 
I thought price looked like it was trying to trick some shorts near that low. 
It's just the damn marekt hours which are annoying. 
Would have loved to have stayed up for that one. 
Probably would have had a target around 6690-6700, which is where it hit. 
If not would have woken up 30 points to the good. 

Seems crazy, the chance to make another $600-700 within a couple of hours, but I had to go to bed early to get up and go to a job the next day where I'll earn around $300 for 8 hours....
haha I won't go into that discussion guys........


----------



## pavilion103

No idea on tonight.
Probably won't even look.
Only came on last night because of the gap. 

Still bearish if I had to choose, however there is the gap.

Happy to sit this one out


----------



## pavilion103

CanOz said:


> Nice call...  As good as it got for me on the Z today though.




A but confused about what the chart is showing?
Also your statement, is that 4 contracts? Why is the loss only like $60?

Pardon my ignorance. What have I missed?


----------



## pavilion103

I was having a think about the fact that there are some watching this thread who may not be posting. A few of these people have made comments here and there. 

What I would really love is to hear a bit more about anyone in that position.

I'm curious to know things like:
- Where you are in your development
- What are you currently trading (even sim)
- What you are looking at trading down the track
- Where you hope to be in 6 months, 12 months, 3 year etc
- What are your overall goal with futures

Whatever questions people feel like answering. 
I think it would be great to get some discussion going.


----------



## CanOz

pavilion103 said:


> A but confused about what the chart is showing?
> Also your statement, is that 4 contracts? Why is the loss only like $60?
> 
> Pardon my ignorance. What have I missed?





Nah, the chart is showing the my last trade where the entry (4 contracts) coincided with your call on the long. The table is my net trades for the day, -6 points including commissions.


----------



## pavilion103

CanOz said:


> Nah, the chart is showing the my last trade where the entry (4 contracts) coincided with your call on the long. The table is my net trades for the day, -6 points including commissions.




Ah ok got it. 
I was thinking -$6 which didn't make sense!

I'm more interested to hear how you trade the FTSE. 
I haven't discussed it in detail with you.
Do you ever hold much longer or not?


----------



## fiftyeight

Thanks to the massive amounts of help I have received from the members of this forum I now have an IB account and have begun trading.

After reading a few of the books recommend I decided that I wanted to beat the learning curve and not loose money. Therefore starting very slowly.

I have been in your part of the world PAV on a course for the past 3 months, I had planned on sim trading the FTSE but have not had the time. I have been watching it most nights while studying. Wish I was trading last night even I seen that short.

As my time frees up again, start sim trading and build a play up a playbook and then jump in.

Where ill be in the future really depends on where my career heads, so who knows but hopefully at least trading in some capacity.

Overall goal is to generate extra income, very vague but all depends on where I am at in my career.

Love this thread and I am very appreciative to all the people who contribute.

Cheers


----------



## CanOz

pavilion103 said:


> Ah ok got it.
> I was thinking -$6 which didn't make sense!
> 
> I'm more interested to hear how you trade the FTSE.
> I haven't discussed it in detail with you.
> Do you ever hold much longer or not?




I don't really trade the FTSE that often as i don't have the DOM up for it, only for the DAX because i have almost three years of screen time for it so i just seem to feel it out better. So with this in mind i only take really obvious looking trades looking at the chart, where i think there could be a run of stops or traders trapped somewhere. I rarely hold a runner for very long on either market.


----------



## pavilion103

CanOz said:


> I don't really trade the FTSE that often as i don't have the DOM up for it, only for the DAX because i have almost three years of screen time for it so i just seem to feel it out better. So with this in mind i only take really obvious looking trades looking at the chart, where i think there could be a run of stops or traders trapped somewhere. I rarely hold a runner for very long on either market.




Is that why you took that long last night at 6652 (traders trapped)?

I've found these sort of setups to be very good. 
It helps having been one of the people who used to try and take a short in that position of a break lower and not understanding why it failed so often.


----------



## CanOz

pavilion103 said:


> Is that why you took that long last night at 6652 (traders trapped)?
> 
> I've found these sort of setups to be very good.
> It helps having been one of the people who used to try and take a short in that position of a break lower and not understanding why it failed so often.




Yeah basically. The market gets that look in the depth that its "too short". So every time it pushes lower a bunch of shorts cover and sweep the offers higher. Sometimes the chart looks like a hockey stick when this happens


----------



## pavilion103

Inexperience had be confused with my last short. 
Took the nice low risk trade, got to 20 points profit. Should have covered. 

I traded it the same way I would the initial trade, but they were completely different contexts. 
The first trade it had a nice distance to go. 
The second trade the market was already oversold and needed to correct. 

I'll get better. 
All valuable lessons to learn. 
At least I recognised that the long way on, but my initial thought to just hold the short and be willing to give back all 20 points if it came to that, was a terrible concept in that spot.


----------



## CanOz

"hockey stick" ....


----------



## pavilion103

Gap filled


----------



## CanOz

I haven't seen this too often, a gap big down day followed by a big gap up day. So the DAX has three gaps now and the FTSE at least two....

Correction, the DAX filled the gap created back on the 13th of Feb, yesty.


----------



## pavilion103

Levels 6760 and 6800-10

I'd watch those.

Favoriting short but not confident.

Won't be on


----------



## CanOz

Hmmm, maybe this gap will fill today....lots of hockey sticks around


----------



## CanOz

just a dirty ole grind today


----------



## CanOz

Text book profile on the DAX today....pr*ck of a day to trade Unless you enjoy death by a thousand cuts!


----------



## cynic

CanOz said:


> Text book profile on the DAX today....pr*ck of a day to trade Unless you enjoy death by a thousand cuts!




What do you expect from demonic sons of bourses from lower Hades?!

Never a dull moment - the bourse that's got the lot including a wicked attitude!

Wlecome to my nightmare!


----------



## Newt

pavilion103 said:


> I was having a think about the fact that there are some watching this thread who may not be posting. A few of these people have made comments here and there.
> 
> What I would really love is to hear a bit more about anyone in that position.
> 
> I'm curious to know things like:
> - Where you are in your development
> - What are you currently trading (even sim)
> - What you are looking at trading down the track
> - Where you hope to be in 6 months, 12 months, 3 year etc
> - What are your overall goal with futures
> 
> Whatever questions people feel like answering.
> I think it would be great to get some discussion going.




I feel should pay some admission fee, so here's some background if of interest.

Long term buy and hold share investor who tried trading in the 90s but really had no idea.  Late 2012 visited ASF on a feeling I could surely get some extra income if I took the time to better understand the principles.  Started by devouring threads here and reading Nick Radge's "Unholy Grails".  Have been trend trading ASX on an off since, through the challenges of the last 18 months based on my own Amibroker systematic system code heavily based on Nick's ideas.  I find its important for me to have some faith something is possible and profitable - after that I'm happy to plug away at it for however long is required.  The amazing thing about communities like ASF of course is being able to stand on the shoulder of giants rather than scratch around in the dirt in the wrong directions sometimes.

Have had futures in the back of my mind particularly after reading very helpful books such as "Universal Principles of Successful Trading" (Brent Penfold).  Over Christmas hols finally had enough time to plough through all the futures/derivatives related material I could lay my hands on in ASF as well as "Futures mad simple" (Kel Butcher).  Really had no hard and fast goals, rather it was more feelings I needed:

- to better understand short term trading
- have a way of making money in down periods (my trend system is index filtered, so is "off" much of the time)
- be able to make some income off low risk leverage positions (hopefully)

I figured it could only help with trend trading entries to have a better grip, and best case might be able to make some extra money from short term/futures.  After a couple of months of learning Ninjatrader and playing with AMP demo data primarly for the FDAX, I'd describe my current position as:

- still struggling to develop my "playbook" (shorthand for certainly not profitable as yet )
- have replay traded this year's DAX data to date over many timeframes and find myself drawn to trades <30min
- can see the potential for making and losing over short time frame versus longer term trend trading
- Now starting to feel I might be able to reliably trade the first few hours of the DAX which is a convenient time for me in Brissy (particularly the 6pm to 10pm period).  Suspect profitability likely to follow from disciplined approach to sticking with a few key times, patterns and setups.

Ideally I'd like to code my strategies once I'm confident enough in them, but nowhere near that in terms of trades or programming skill (NT C# doesn't set me on fire after Amibroker AFL either to be honest).


As for goals, probably:

SHORT:  Open an IB account and learn TWS + continue to sim trade FDAX in realtime as much as possible.  Keep better records, develop checklists for ideal entries, review (Pav, you put me to shame with this I suspect!)
MEDIUM:  Aim to get profitable over at least a few months sim trading, start reviewing the FTSE much more closely
LONG:  If I do succeed in becoming profitable, scale up contract sizes a little and look to create my own code for automating TWS where possible.  I find "teaching" a computer to do what I have in my head a great way of clarifying my technique.


----------



## Newt

I personally much prefer people posting graphs rather than just talking entries/exits at numbers, but am guilty of never writing things up myself.  Anyway, here goes a first effort.

*DAX tonight:*

Very little movement at 6pm through 7pm local time - unusual - usually able to identify a couple of 15-20 pts moves in those periods
Made me think caution required - possibly not worth trading tonight
While typing tonight had the DAX running on 3min and 1min and watched the price action taper from 1845 through to 2045 with corresponding falling volume
Looked like a breakout around 9pm area was possible, but decided wouldn't trade tonight without something significant
Based on highs/lows tonight and previous day S/R pencilled in very conservative breakout limits at 9476.5 (for upward break) and 9438 for downward break
Based on the gap up at open tonight, guessed any break would be down and programmed a stop entry@9438 with 10pt stp and 15pt initial take profit - the DAX can go off in seconds when it does break
At 2050 the DAX started moving upwards quickly - cancelled my short entry strategy and manually went long (this is all sim for me).  With no expectation of how far the move might go other than yesterday's S/R resolved to be timid and scalp 10pts here and there with aggressive manual stops (would normally try to sit out at least 25 pts for a decent break with 5pt stop)
Managed a few quick trades over next 13 mins for:+3.5 ticks, +12, -7.5 (stopped), +1.5, +7
  = 16.5 pts net profit for the night for 30mins watching the screen
Then it was time to chase the kids to bed 


If I can get the technique and discipline to reliably get 10 pts off the DAX each day by late 2014 I'd be happy to be honest....


----------



## Newt

What I find fascinating about your FTSE analyses Pav is how you dissect S and R, wait for the right bounce off either, then sit for very decent moves.  The equivalent tonight on the DAX would probably have been making 100 pts off the upwards move which is now tailing off rather than short trades over a few minutes.  Considering how volatile the DAX is I just don't have the confidence to sit on trades medium term.  Can't stand to sit through the 10 pt reversals here and there that can sometimes turn into 50 pts reversal in the blink of an eye! Maybe I could manage that on the somewhat tamer FTSE if I get the time to start dissecting it.  Heck, I don't know enough to be calling the FTSE tame anyhow.

(I'm jealous of all the time you sound like you spend nagging with John too BTW    )


----------



## Lone Wolf

pavilion103 said:


> I was having a think about the fact that there are some watching this thread who may not be posting. A few of these people have made comments here and there.
> 
> What I would really love is to hear a bit more about anyone in that position.
> 
> I'm curious to know things like:
> - Where you are in your development
> - What are you currently trading (even sim)
> - What you are looking at trading down the track
> - Where you hope to be in 6 months, 12 months, 3 year etc
> - What are your overall goal with futures
> 
> Whatever questions people feel like answering.
> I think it would be great to get some discussion going.




Were you interested in our trading in general or specifically futures? I'll assume futures for now or this will get really long.

I spent a long time looking into systems trading. A couple years ago I started trading futures on a live account with an auto trading system. I stopped when I ran into issues with the data feed. Long story short, the system behaved differently on live data compared to the same period when downloaded historically. Therefore the backtested results couldn't be trusted.

Discretionary trading - with so many different ways to go about it I was a little lost where to focus. I've been a subscriber to Radge and TradeGuider, recently I've been looking into Al Brooks. Part of me thinks the real story is told in the order book, but without proper guidance I'm lost looking at that thing. Tech and yourself have shown that the order book isn't absolutely necessary to turn a profit. So I'm focusing on that now.

So my method is price action with a little VSA. My style is to focus on limiting the amount lost on each losing trade. I know I'm not going to get a high win rate, but the more often I can get in the market with low to no risk, the greater the chance of me catching a ride in the right direction. Keeping in mind to avoid death by a thousand cuts.

I’ve sim traded sporadically for a long time, sporadically for various reasons I won’t go into. But I’ve been solidly into it this year. I sim trade FTSE every night (best market for my timezone with a reasonable tick size). I was also speed sim trading with NT but I have a software glitch at the moment. 

I want to focus on one market right now, but in the future I'll branch out to other markets, maybe DAX and currency futures. Then pick only the best setups from each market.

Right now I need more screen time to identify the best setups. Psychology wise, I need to trade more. Even on sim I don’t trade often because I can always see the opposite side of the trade and think it’s too risky. So on one hand I need to practice taking only the best setups, but on the other hand I think I need to just enter more often (in sim) and practice managing the trade. Don’t miss a nice trade for fear of taking a small loss.

Where I hope to be in x months time? It takes as long as it takes. But first I have to prove profitable on sim. Then prove profitable on 1 contract. The short term goal is supplementary income to my full time job. And also that warm fuzzy feeling I’ll get from realizing that I didn’t waste countless hours of my spare time researching trading over the last 5 or so years. Ultimately, like most, the goal is to make enough income that I only work because I want to.

I’m quiet on here because I have little to offer whose who are profitable.


----------



## Lone Wolf

As an example. Last night I only took 10 points out of that massive move we had. My first attempt short was terrible and was stopped out. Then I became too cautious and missed the good entry for the big move down.

Entered the exact same trade as your second one Pav, but I closed mine out at +10 points because I wasn't sure it had much room to go and I was happy to be in the green for the day.

Today I was determined to not sit on my hands, so I made two terrible failed attempts to short before realizing that we were in a range. Then traded the range to make back my previous losses. Then one more short that I closed out at break even because it had no momentum. So four trades later and I think I made $3 AUD. But I'll take it.


----------



## beachlife

pavilion103 said:


> I was having a think about the fact that there are some watching this thread who may not be posting. A few of these people have made comments here and there.
> 
> What I would really love is to hear a bit more about anyone in that position.
> 
> I'm curious to know things like:
> - Where you are in your development
> - What are you currently trading (even sim)
> - What you are looking at trading down the track
> - Where you hope to be in 6 months, 12 months, 3 year etc
> - What are your overall goal with futures
> 
> Whatever questions people feel like answering.
> I think it would be great to get some discussion going.




I find it an interesting read but dont comment as your method is completely different to what I do and I'm not really sure where you are at with it.  Cynic has inspired me to play with the DAX, which I will probably regret after swearing to never short term trade again, but so far so good.


----------



## pavilion103

Haven't had the chance to get on today. 

This is a short from last night. I managed to get on one. 

Stop to BE as it fell lower. Stopped at BE. 
Happy with the trade. 
Sometimes it will work, sometimes it wont.


----------



## pavilion103

Followed by a poor trade for 6 point loss. 

See notes on chart.


----------



## pavilion103

The 6800 level looks important. 

So interested to see whether it breaks higher or this forms the top once again. 

Really waiting to see what the bigger move will be now.


----------



## pavilion103

Newt said:


> What I find fascinating about your FTSE analyses Pav is how you dissect S and R, wait for the right bounce off either, then sit for very decent moves.  The equivalent tonight on the DAX would probably have been making 100 pts off the upwards move which is now tailing off rather than short trades over a few minutes.  Considering how volatile the DAX is I just don't have the confidence to sit on trades medium term.  Can't stand to sit through the 10 pt reversals here and there that can sometimes turn into 50 pts reversal in the blink of an eye! Maybe I could manage that on the somewhat tamer FTSE if I get the time to start dissecting it.  Heck, I don't know enough to be calling the FTSE tame anyhow.
> 
> (I'm jealous of all the time you sound like you spend nagging with John too BTW    )
> 
> View attachment 57088




Keen to get on the DAX at some point. 
No hurry yet, but no doubt I will. 

Probably some time this year. 
Then I will be keen to hear what the DAX traders on here have to say.


----------



## Lone Wolf

pavilion103 said:


> Haven't had the chance to get on today.
> 
> This is a short from last night. I managed to get on one.
> 
> Stop to BE as it fell lower. Stopped at BE.
> Happy with the trade.
> Sometimes it will work, sometimes it wont.
> 
> View attachment 57098




This is the same trade as I took last night that I closed out for +10 because I thought it was in a range.



pavilion103 said:


> Followed by a poor trade for 6 point loss.
> 
> See notes on chart.
> 
> View attachment 57099




Again, I took the same trade. But what do you look for in a decent test? I saw the first high vol push up, then the second push up on half that volume with the bar closing in the middle. This was then followed by a series of bars that got smaller as price failed to push higher. May not be a perfect test but it did seem very weak.


----------



## Lone Wolf

Today's blunder.

Second push up to the high of the day, which was also the close of the previous day, which was also very near long term (weeks) resistance. I shorted at 6793 and in some moment of mental failure I moved the stop to break even when price had hardly moved in my favor. Stopped me out before heading south for the rest of the night.


----------



## kid hustlr

Lone Wolf said:


> Again, I took the same trade. But what do you look for in a decent test? I saw the first high vol push up, then the second push up on half that volume with the bar closing in the middle. This was then followed by a series of bars that got smaller as price failed to push higher. May not be a perfect test but it did seem very weak.




I've been caught in this spot as well before. I'm sure there are examples in this thread *Honestly it's not that bad. *

A couple of things to consider though:

- Fade trades work really well in the initial 30-90 mins, then in my experience you want a really really clean set up in order to take on a fade.
- There's is still plenty of volume in that second push up. We are looking for price to fail and demand to dry up. we want those upthrusts to be on low volume.
- What is the risk reward for a short here? You would expect that 6765 level or so to provide some support (resistance becomes support and all that) so I'm not sure if there is really that much downside to be had right now.

Just food for thought, as I look at it ITS NOT THAT BAD but there are some things to consider


----------



## CanOz

Lone Wolf said:


> Today's blunder.
> 
> Second push up to the high of the day, which was also the close of the previous day, which was also very near long term (weeks) resistance. I shorted at 6793 and in some moment of mental failure I moved the stop to break even when price had hardly moved in my favor. Stopped me out before heading south for the rest of the night.
> 
> View attachment 57103




Ouch! Those are the ones that hurt me more than anything, leaving money on the table....

Thanks for sharing LW.

Two trades today on the Z, one loss and one win.


----------



## Lone Wolf

kid hustlr said:


> I've been caught in this spot as well before. I'm sure there are examples in this thread *Honestly it's not that bad. *
> 
> A couple of things to consider though:
> 
> - Fade trades work really well in the initial 30-90 mins, then in my experience you want a really really clean set up in order to take on a fade.
> - There's is still plenty of volume in that second push up. We are looking for price to fail and demand to dry up. we want those upthrusts to be on low volume.
> - What is the risk reward for a short here? You would expect that 6765 level or so to provide some support (resistance becomes support and all that) so I'm not sure if there is really that much downside to be had right now.
> 
> Just food for thought, as I look at it ITS NOT THAT BAD but there are some things to consider




Good points, I appreciate the input.


----------



## Lone Wolf

CanOz said:


> Two trades today on the Z, one loss and one win.




Sorry if I missed it Can, but what are you trading these days? I thought I remember you saying that you've given up on the intraday directional plays? Or did you just stop focusing so much on watching the order book?

PS. Nice trade.


----------



## CanOz

Lone Wolf said:


> Sorry if I missed it Can, but what are you trading these days? I thought I remember you saying that you've given up on the intraday directional plays? Or did you just stop focusing so much on watching the order book?
> 
> PS. Nice trade.




Nah, still got two AMP accounts active so I try and be disciplined, not over trade...but I'm not going to make a career of it...still trading spreads.

Oh yeah, still using the DOM...


----------



## Caveroute

Lone Wolf said:


> Today's blunder.
> 
> Second push up to the high of the day, which was also the close of the previous day, which was also very near long term (weeks) resistance. I shorted at 6793 and in some moment of mental failure I moved the stop to break even when price had hardly moved in my favor. Stopped me out before heading south for the rest of the night.
> 
> View attachment 57103




My take, not trying to be a smart ****, but an interesting chart ....


----------



## Trembling Hand

Caveroute said:


> , but an interesting chart ....




In hind site. You don't really trade like that in real time on such a short time frame do you?


----------



## Caveroute

Trembling Hand said:


> In hind site. You don't really trade like that in real time on such a short time frame do you?




Its a tick chart, the number of bars will vary - ideally around the same number as a 3-5m chart. And I look for specific set ups so the variations in speed is ok most of the time. 

I'm only ~2500 hrs into the 10,000 required to gain a full license, but yes I do trade like that, although its still wip for the most part. 

Did I take that trade, no, it was a tough chart to read and I missed the bear channel until I started playing around with the trend lines later in the piece. Which, to be honest is pretty poor on my part. The tcl line is an obvious feature that is likely to play a further role. 

Once I saw it the rest of the pieces came together. 

There is nothing I have annotated that is not derivable in real time, if your good enough. It's really quite surprising how once you have a handle of whats going on the pieces of the jig saw fall together, looking at the chart this morning I see that channel  was still in play through the night. 

The best way to improve at this game is to spend as much time looking back over what you have just tried to trade and figuring out what worked and what didn't, whats good and what's bad, what did I miss and so on ... 

Th are a few ES commentators, and I believe their legit, that follow and commentate on this style [brooks price action] very effectively. For me, I use a stripped down simplified version, but it has the same principles.


----------



## pavilion103

Lone Wolf said:


> This is the same trade as I took last night that I closed out for +10 because I thought it was in a range.  Again, I took the same trade. But what do you look for in a decent test? I saw the first high vol push up, then the second push up on half that volume with the bar closing in the middle. This was then followed by a series of bars that got smaller as price failed to push higher. May not be a perfect test but it did seem very weak.




In hindsight it doesn't look as bad as I thought.
Reasonable trade. Not one of the absolute best.


----------



## pavilion103

Lone Wolf said:


> Today's blunder.  Second push up to the high of the day, which was also the close of the previous day, which was also very near long term (weeks) resistance. I shorted at 6793 and in some moment of mental failure I moved the stop to break even when price had hardly moved in my favor. Stopped me out before heading south for the rest of the night.  <img src="https://www.aussiestockforums.com/forums/attachment.php?attachmentid=57103"/>




Never move stop to BE in that point to save two lousy points (if your strategy is to hold for the larger move).

Stop just above 95 was the obvious one. LEAVE it. Stuffing around with 2 or so points at the high of the day is a recipe for regret! (I've been there!!)


----------



## pavilion103

Last night I took a good one after the down move. I wasn't on for the open.

2 contracts at 6762, stop 6755
It moved to 6775 before returning to BE to take me out.
Target was around 6790.

Two nights in a row I've got a good setup to BE and up about 15 points (per contract) only to give it back.
Both I thought had more potential.
But I'm trying to catch 30-40 point moves so there will be days like that.


----------



## Trembling Hand

Caveroute said:


> I'm only ~2500 hrs into the 10,000 required to gain a full license, but yes I do trade like that, although its still wip for the most part.




Be careful. Millions of people have wasted their life casing 10,000 hours. It is only a guarantee of 10 years of your life wasted. Not of expertise.




> The best way to improve at this game is to spend as much time looking back over what you have just tried to trade and figuring out what worked and what didn't, whats good and what's bad, what did I miss and so on ...




Actually I would strongly disagree. Up to a point (maybe a few 100 hours) its good. After that if you cannot look forward at what is going to happen then you have no edge. Its the next 9000 hours that is spent trying to milk what you can see happening to consistent profitably that is the hard part. Because even then you will spend the rest of your trading career (thats the after 10,000 hours well spent) thinking "F$#$#@% I knew that was going to happen but why was it so hard to trade".

If you don't see where we are going with a responsible amount of accuracy you are probably only at 200 hours.


----------



## Caveroute

Trembling Hand said:


> Be careful. Millions of people have wasted their life casing 10,000 hours. It is only a guarantee of 10 years of your life wasted. Not of expertise.
> 
> 
> 
> 
> Actually I would strongly disagree. Up to a point (maybe a few 100 hours) its good. After that if you cannot look forward at what is going to happen then you have no edge. Its the next 9000 hours that is spent trying to milk what you can see happening to consistent profitably that is the hard part. Because even then you will spend the rest of your trading career (thats the after 10,000 hours well spent) thinking "F$#$#@% I knew that was going to happen but why was it so hard to trade".
> 
> If you don't see where we are going with a responsible amount of accuracy you are probably only at 200 hours.




That's right, you don't get any marks for effort in this game - it's how good you are. 

i'm getting better, the road ahead is clear, the x hours comment was really meant to say 'choose you style, make sure it works and it works for you, stick to it and improve over time'.  

As an observation, taking a short with the right setup off each touch of the TL for the rest of the night would have been very profitable. It doesn't get much easier than that. You just had to be patient ...............


----------



## Wysiwyg

Caveroute said:


> My take, not trying to be a smart ****, but an interesting chart ....



Thing is, if you 'project' the channel at the start of the chart, the trend channel changes completely. If you 'project' the channel after the chart is completed then the bear channel is 'obvious'. Point I make is these boundaries exist only by creation afterwards. The short entry point you marked could also have been at the start of a trend change up with the previous three lows finding support at your 0% fib. line.


----------



## pavilion103

This is why I work with (what appear to me) obvious S/R. 

I'm never guessing what the channel is, or re-drawing lines 100 times a night. 

Short off resistance (horizontal line) 
Long off support (horizontal line)

Obviously other factors to consider, but I keep it simple in regards to the above. 
It works well for me.


----------



## CanOz

pavilion103 said:


> This is why I work with (what appear to me) obvious S/R.
> 
> I'm never guessing what the channel is, or re-drawing lines 100 times a night.
> 
> Short off resistance (horizontal line)
> Long off support (horizontal line)
> 
> Obviously other factors to consider, but I keep it simple in regards to the above.
> It works well for me.




I think this is the key to finding areas to trade the markets context, the areas where the risk to trade versus the reward of success is the greatest. Its the context with which to generate the trade ideas that's the most difficult for me to develop and trust. For example, you think there could be a massive short covering rally today and you identify some areas where you could get in if that happens, then the market opens and immediately drives lower and you abandon that idea....only to have the market test a support level, after you sell the break lower, come back take out your stop and bolt off higher as short runs for cover....yourself included...

The point at which you can flip and realize that yes the short covering rally is happening is the point at which you are starting to read the market better.


----------



## Caveroute

Wysiwyg said:


> Thing is, if you 'project' the channel at the start of the chart, the trend channel changes completely. If you 'project' the channel after the chart is completed then the bear channel is 'obvious'. Point I make is these boundaries exist only by creation afterwards. The short entry point you marked could also have been at the start of a trend change up with the previous three lows finding support at your 0% fib. line.




Well, you pays your money and you takes your chance. 

All [ and I missed it btw until later]  that was required here was take the TCL, that started y'day, and drop it where it fits on the pivot highs, and there is your 'potential' channel, you then have some context to work with. If it didn't control prices then maybe it was wrong. 

The fib point I think you you refer to is arguably the bottom of a range, in fact the channel is composed of consecutive ranges in my view - and yes it could have trended up, but it didn't. It reversed on good context, with a good pattern and a good signal bar.

 It did break through the bottom of the range, tested the b/o, and then continued south.  You need to make a bull/bear call on all the evidence available - and it's a judgement call - the better your judgement the better your edge. 

It's not easy, but other people are seeing this stuff and basing their trades accordingly. If there are enough 'followers' you should be good for at least a scalp before and if the pattern fails. If it doesn't fail, your runners are good to go.


----------



## pavilion103

CanOz said:


> The point at which you can flip and realize that yes the short covering rally is happening is the point at which you are starting to read the market better.




Yes. So important. 

For me, for 2 reasons. 
1) being able to take profit at a point close to where the trend is reversing/has reversed.
2) being able to identify the next move to trade.

Will never get it perfect. 
But you definitely need to be awake to what is going on (requires an open mind).


----------



## kid hustlr

pavilion103 said:


> Followed by a poor trade for 6 point loss.
> 
> See notes on chart.
> 
> View attachment 57099




I'd like to re-visit this one in more detail If you guys are keen?

Lone Wolf this was the trade you said you also took and I had a couple of points which I posted about context.

Main reason I was so interested in this trade is that it reminded me of a very similar one I took a few months back which I posted on here and T/H tore me apart for and actually kind of hurt my internet feelings and left me a little butt hurt. The crux of his point (I think) was don't shoe horn patterns, its the bigger picture/context/other factors which are just as important as to how the pattern is setting up on the screen.

PAV - why do you think this was a bad trade? Obviously it was a losing trade but why do you think it failed?

Anyway this was my failed attempt at a short from mid November - I think it looks very similar to the trade you took in the chart above.


----------



## pavilion103

Context. That's why. 
It had just broken through resistance with momentum.

If this had occurred at the resistance level then it would have been one I'd take every time.


----------



## pavilion103

Plus even if it did break down it would encounter the previous resistance level as support.

Context was poor.


----------



## Trembling Hand

kid hustlr said:


> Main reason I was so interested in this trade is that it reminded me of a very similar one I took a few months back which I posted on here and T/H tore me apart for and actually kind of hurt my internet feelings and left me a little butt hurt.




LOL! 

How you going this week. Get to hold a fade of Monday?


----------



## kid hustlr

Yeah last 3 days played as expected, as usual I didn't capitalise.

another typically poor week for me in the bonds, I really did think the Russian thing was a hoax and I was pretty certain we'd sell off after RBA but once again the way I've been taught to trade doesn't really capitalise on those longer time frame moves. intraday scalping has been very tough.

in the old day's from what I gather it used to be like 'mkt is going down, get long spreads or steepeners on or vica versa'

these days theres so much size around its purely dependant on where guys are positioned. I mean after we gapped up in the bonds Monday I really did want to come from the sell side but the slowness of this market, I pretty need to run some kind of short trade and hold it for like a week, so then what do I do not sleep? how do I manage the trade when im sleeping? it's a big issue for me and one which might prove my downfall in this game. 

I feel I have a really good feel where are going most of the time, I just struggle to take advantage.


----------



## Trembling Hand

kid hustlr said:


> Yeah last 3 days played as expected, as usual I didn't capitalise.
> 
> 
> Monday I really did want to come from the sell side but the slowness of this market, I pretty need to run some kind of short trade and hold it for like a week, so then what do I do not sleep? how do I manage the trade when im sleeping? it's a big issue for me and one which might prove my downfall in this game.
> 
> I feel I have a really good feel where are going most of the time, I just struggle to take advantage.




You haven't got access to stops (same here!!)? Or not used?


----------



## kid hustlr

Trembling Hand said:


> You haven't got access to stops (same here!!)? Or not used?




mac bank brokers are useless

i could set stops on my machine or maybe set my alarm for th emiddle of the night to check on it once to make sure a bomb hasn't gone off i guess.

it's also hard to set stops for spreads because ill have positions in multiple markets - this is a legitimate issue.

i guess ive answered my own question a fraction in that ive just go to use a size which im comfortable sleeping on.

either way ive got to change up something and soon because i can't keep 'seeing it' and not taking advantage of it.


----------



## CanOz

well, today might be quiet start on the EU indices, interest rate decision day...not that there should be any surprises, maybe some QE stuff...


----------



## pavilion103

Short 79

On Skype with kid at the moment


----------



## CanOz

pavilion103 said:


> Short 79
> 
> On Skype with kid at the moment




Yeah that bloody consolidation broken, finally. I'm looking for a long once we get back into yesty's value area....news out by then so may have to sit on hands...Some more...

Of course i'm generally speaking of the DAX here...


----------



## Newt

Canoz, what's that news feed site you've shown please?  Commerical I assume?


----------



## CanOz

Newt said:


> Canoz, what's that news feed site you've shown please?  Commerical I assume?




Nah its free...

tradingeconomics


----------



## Newt

CanOz said:


> Nah its free...
> 
> tradingeconomics




Thanks for that - and also offering an explanation why trading ranges are so tight today ahead of news


----------



## CanOz

Given the Interest rate decision may not be a surprise, the press conf., after could be more market moving, just a heads up though of course i have no idea what so ever.


----------



## Newt

Again, interesting to hear.  I'm only keeping half an eye on it, sim trading, but good to mention in case someone goes nuts in expectation.


----------



## pavilion103

This is my trade for the night. 
25 points. 
Didn't take 2 contracts because I wasn't THAT confident. Don't regret it. 
Most times I will though. 
50 points would have been handy. 


Closed in a great spot. 
Was chatting about it with kid-hustler. We both saw the profit target around 6745-50. 
Talked about getting in for a long. 
Both too tired. 
Relaxation time then bed.


----------



## Caveroute

pavilion103 said:


> Short 79
> 
> On Skype with kid at the moment




2 short @86.5, L2 punt on an OR that worked.

scalped 1 at 83.5

Added on / scalped once - should have been more.

Exited at 53, RB after a move down from a TL break into strong support.


----------



## pavilion103

Caveroute said:


> 2 short @86.5, L2 punt on an OR that worked.
> 
> scalped 1 at 83.5
> 
> Added on / scalped once - should have been more.
> 
> Exited at 53, RB after a move down from a TL break into strong support.





86.5?
So you got in in the first 10 minutes?
It didn't retest that high.


----------



## Caveroute

pavilion103 said:


> 86.5?
> So you got in in the first 10 minutes?
> It didn't retest that high.




As I said a punt on an OR [150 tick chart]  - you know the h/l of the day is often in the first hour. 

I was at b/e soon after entry.

I agree your entry was was high probability than mine.


----------



## pavilion103

Just curious.
Interesting.
That initial few bars often remains the high.


----------



## Caveroute

Caveroute said:


> As I said a punt on an OR [150 tick chart]  - you know the h/l of the day is often in the first hour.
> 
> I was at b/e soon after entry.
> 
> I agree your entry was was high probability than mine.




Here is the un-annotated chart.


----------



## Lone Wolf

kid hustlr said:


> I'd like to re-visit this one in more detail If you guys are keen?
> 
> View attachment 57111




Thanks for reminding me, I remember that chart of yours now that I see it again. I think we all agree that the trade in question wasn't ideal.

As for tonight, I actually saw almost the same setup you and Pav did. Except that I got distracted and by the time I saw the setup and put my order on it was already two points past my desired entry. So I put a limit order in hoping for it to come back. Last night I moved my stop to within two points and the market came back to get me. Do you think it came back to get me tonight when I wanted it to? Nooo. You snooze you lose. 

There might have been another opportunity to get in on the small pullback, entry 6769.5. But I didn't take that either. If I miss my ideal entry I find it very hard to take a worse one.


----------



## pavilion103

69.5 no.

Put your order in ahead of time. Don't scramble at the last minute.

Good work spotting it though.


We also identified a long which probably would have been taken around 61.
Currently at around 78.
Nice move if I'd been bothered to stay up.


Like I said previously in the other thread.
Work on 10 good trades a week.
2 a day often.
The initial short = check
The long at support = saw it but was keen for relaxation before bed.

25 points on first one.
So far almost 20 on the second and id just about take the profit.


----------



## Caveroute

Lone Wolf said:


> Thanks for reminding me, I remember that chart of yours now that I see it again. I think we all agree that the trade in question wasn't ideal.
> 
> As for tonight, I actually saw almost the same setup you and Pav did. Except that I got distracted and by the time I saw the setup and put my order on it was already two points past my desired entry. So I put a limit order in hoping for it to come back. Last night I moved my stop to within two points and the market came back to get me. Do you think it came back to get me tonight when I wanted it to? Nooo. You snooze you lose.
> 
> There might have been another opportunity to get in on the small pullback, entry 6769.5. But I didn't take that either. If I miss my ideal entry I find it very hard to take a worse one.




On my chart, and on another chart it will different, 69.5 is a clear and obvious bull trap.

Take a look at the chart a few posts back. 

My only concern was a potential trend channel line just below it, not shown. 

I did add on here.

.


----------



## pavilion103

Another short on? 75 stop 80?


----------



## CanOz

pavilion103 said:


> Another short on? 75 stop 80?




Be careful of the news mate, theres a ton of it coming up!


----------



## CanOz

Those Europeans are a nervous lot, the Euro banged around a 65 tick range and the Dax a 20 point range....that was leaving rates unchanged!

Anyway, thats me done for the night, pretty much worked for the broker tonight to end up with 11 points net, and 174 EUR in commissions.


----------



## Newt

So was it the news release or discussion aftewards that slammed the DAX around 60 pts......?


----------



## kid hustlr

Lone Wolf said:


> Thanks for reminding me, I remember that chart of yours now that I see it again. I think we all agree that the trade in question wasn't ideal.
> 
> As for tonight, I actually saw almost the same setup you and Pav did. Except that I got distracted and by the time I saw the setup and put my order on it was already two points past my desired entry. So I put a limit order in hoping for it to come back. Last night I moved my stop to within two points and the market came back to get me. Do you think it came back to get me tonight when I wanted it to? Nooo. You snooze you lose.
> 
> There might have been another opportunity to get in on the small pullback, entry 6769.5. But I didn't take that either. If I miss my ideal entry I find it very hard to take a worse one.




FWIW I didnt make any money tonight either, missed the short Pav took.

I think the 69.5 would have been marginal, if it had settled for a clear flag type pattern id be more inclined to take it but I'm the same as you where if I miss the entry @ 80 its hard to find a sell 12 points lower.

Pav is trading very well lately, his ability to trust his set up / analysis and then just leave it is what i admire most fwiw.


----------



## pavilion103

CanOz said:


> Be careful of the news mate, theres a ton of it coming up!




Didn't take anything.
Important to know with the news!


----------



## pavilion103

Newt said:


> So was it the news release or discussion aftewards that slammed the DAX around 60 pts......?
> 
> 
> View attachment 57130




I don't trade the DAX but if that setup was on the FTSE I'd take it 10/10 times!
Entry 70ish, stop 80. 

What is the dollar P/L per tick/point with the DAX?


----------



## CanOz

pavilion103 said:


> I don't trade the DAX but if that setup was on the FTSE I'd take it 10/10 times!
> Entry 70ish, stop 80.
> 
> What is the dollar P/L per tick/point with the DAX?




The Dax is 12.5 eur per tick, or 25 per full point.


----------



## CanOz

pavilion103 said:


> I don't trade the DAX but if that setup was on the FTSE I'd take it 10/10 times!
> Entry 70ish, stop 80.
> 
> What is the dollar P/L per tick/point with the DAX?




I really don't see how this is a setup If it wasn't for the news induced spike down, the market could have continued grinding up indefinitely. That's the thing about hindsight analysis, it doesn't account for the analysis that needs to take place in real time. What if the news was positive for the index, would that have looked like a good trade? I know it looks tempting but i don't think news spikes should be considered plays.

BTW, some of these news spikes and can trap allot of traders, level where their stops could be can sometime provide some interesting action, after the event.


----------



## pavilion103

Nothing at all to do with news.
Nothing at all to do with hindsight.
This is a setup in my playbook.
At resistance.
3 or 4 bearish bars.
Low risk entry (relative wise)


----------



## pavilion103

Btw I'm saying this is a setup for me when there is NO news.

I wouldn't take it when news is coming out.


----------



## CanOz

Well I'm tipping a directional day today, its been a while now....a move in either direction should clear out a few stops....with NFP later, it may not be the morning session in which this happens...


----------



## pavilion103

Short 63.
Unconventional.
I'll post later.
Felt it so strong.


----------



## pavilion103

Could have taken 20 points at last nights support. Holding at BE


----------



## CanOz

pavilion103 said:


> Short 63.
> Unconventional.
> I'll post later.
> Felt it so strong.




Shoot rudy, wasn't that the low???

oops that was the DAX.


----------



## pavilion103

You mean I should take profit?


----------



## CanOz

pavilion103 said:


> You mean I should take profit?




lol...no no, i looked up at my screen over my main screen and saw the big candle and the low was 63....after i posted i realized it was the DAX, 9463. I thought you'd sold the low. Then i realized i had my DAX 60m chart maximized over the FTSE chart...


----------



## pavilion103

Haha no.
Risky entry but only 5 points.
If I had 2 I would have taken one off at 25 point profit.
Couldn't take 2 in that spot.

Got near the high.
Looks bearish.
In thinking the daily isn't too strong.
I'll hold.
Heading out.


----------



## CanOz

pavilion103 said:


> Haha no.
> Risky entry but only 5 points.
> If I had 2 I would have taken one off at 25 point profit.
> Couldn't take 2 in that spot.
> 
> Got near the high.
> Looks bearish.
> In thinking the daily isn't too strong.
> I'll hold.
> Heading out.




I'm thinking we put in one of those hockey sticks, big drop followed by a grind lower....


----------



## pavilion103

Target 6700.
If it breaks here we look good.


----------



## CanOz

Well the measured move for the range breaking on the DAX is 9400, whether we get there or not though...


----------



## CanOz

CanOz said:


> I'm thinking we put in one of those hockey sticks, big drop followed by a grind lower....




The Hockey Stick pattern....


----------



## CanOz

CanOz said:


> The Hockey Stick pattern....




How to execute the hockey stick pattern


----------



## pavilion103

Not really sure what to make of this one.
It got up 38 points ( never would have taken profit there).

Stopped BE.

Obvious trail was 49. Didn't want to take it though. 
Maybe I didn't respect a 12 point win.
Maybe I had a short bias and I didn't red the market.

Not upset.
Probably should have taken more given the small range days.
All good


----------



## CanOz

pavilion103 said:


> Not really sure what to make of this one.
> It got up 38 points ( never would have taken profit there).
> 
> Stopped BE.
> 
> Obvious trail was 49. Didn't want to take it though.
> Maybe I didn't respect a 12 point win.
> Maybe I had a short bias and I didn't red the market.
> 
> Not upset.
> Probably should have taken more given the small range days.
> All good




The current 14 day ATR of the FTSE is 76. It had put in 51 from high to low today, 6700 wasn't unreasonable but by looking out for a bottoming pattern, might have saved you some profit. Thats not to say it won't get there, but indices don't trend really well.


----------



## pavilion103

Darn it. It got to 6700.

Not disappointed with my move.

One of those nights where I was out and about so couldn't check 100 times.

Wish it didn't come back!!!


----------



## Lone Wolf

kid hustlr said:


> FWIW I didnt make any money tonight either, missed the short Pav took.
> 
> I think the 69.5 would have been marginal, if it had settled for a clear flag type pattern id be more inclined to take it but I'm the same as you where if I miss the entry @ 80 its hard to find a sell 12 points lower.




There were a couple days this week where I stuffed up the ideal entry, then sat on the side and watched as it headed in one direction for the rest of the night. So I was wondering if it might be better to take a risk controlled late entry, rather than to sit on the side and miss the whole move.

Another way to look at it might be, would you make more, or less money if you tried to pyramid into the move? On a trend day you'd make more by adding to your position at minor pullbacks, but on a range day you'll just give back your open profits.



> Pav is trading very well lately, his ability to trust his set up / analysis and then just leave it is what i admire most fwiw.




For me, confidence comes with experiencing success. I haven't been doing this long enough, or successfully enough to have confidence in my entries. Some days I notice that I saw the same entries as Pav did, but he wins where I lose because I have no confidence in my decision and I hesitate/bail.


----------



## pavilion103

Don't worry about getting a late entry. Focus on getting better at getting the first entry. 
Maybe if you think it's a really really obvious top/bottom. But even then don't make some makeshift stop that can easily get taken out on a pullback because it isn't the best one. 
I'd say just focus on hammering your setups!


I agree with your assessment of me. 
I have no major psychological ability. 
I have simply seen these setups over and over again go for 30,40,50,60 points. 
Risking 6 seems like nothing. 
Most times worst case scenario is BE. 
Sometimes 6 points.
If you truly know what works and you feel it, it isn't difficult psychologically to execute it.


----------



## pavilion103

Please give me feedback on this. 
Friday's trade. 

Target was 6700ish. 
Got in 6666. 

It was up 38 points at a maximum. 
Ended up as a breakeven trade. 

Notes on chart. My thinking during the trade and why I didn't take profit.


----------



## pavilion103

No standout volume for a reversal. 

No support around this level. 

Only conceivable trailing stop was 6749 (but what was the point risking this - it did fail a re-test here once anyway). 

I'm not unhappy with it, but keen on thoughts. 

Would others have done things differently (keeping in mind I was aiming for 6700 which it eventually hit).


----------



## pavilion103

A new setup that I'm trialling. 

Maximum risk on these setups = 5 points. 

1) Price needs to be at a critical level on open (and daily chart points to the potential move in this direction). 

2) Big opening bar with 2 or 3 consolidation/bearish (for a short) 1 minute bars to follow. 

3) Stop to BE asap


This is untried at present so really keen to get thoughts on this one in particular. 

Profit target will be the main consideration I really need to work on if I go ahead with this setup in my playbook. 
Often it can move 15-20 points in this direction and then a good fade in the opposite direction is on. 
Friday was different because I anticipated a weak day so was happy to hold. 





- - - Updated - - -

*NOTE: This trade is the same one that I analysed in the posts above (Friday's trade on open)*


----------



## pavilion103

I've done some analysis on this for 39 trading days this year so far. These are the charts that I have saved (all are 3 minute charts). 

These are the stats for taking similar type setups to my 1 min setup. 

The net result is hardly worth it at a net P/L of 29 point profit (0.75 points profit per day).

However, this is simply trailing the trade at a pivot high/low (varying types). 
With a profit take/entry strategy, I wonder how much this would improve the results. 

I'd need to test
1) Profit taking strategy
2) Not taking signals on every day but having some sort of filter/conditions required to take it, like on Friday (near major level etc...)
3) Reversal setups in the opening bars.


Thus far I'm thinking these setups can work in selected circumstances.

This positive is that based on these 39 days there isn't money being lost.


----------



## Lone Wolf

pavilion103 said:


> Please give me feedback on this.
> Friday's trade.
> 
> Target was 6700ish.
> Got in 6666.
> 
> It was up 38 points at a maximum.
> Ended up as a breakeven trade.
> 
> Notes on chart. My thinking during the trade and why I didn't take profit.
> 
> View attachment 57153




Feedback from me isn’t worth anything, but I’ll put some ideas out there.

Your entry and initial stop are aimed at catching immediate momentum. But you’re holding for a longer term move. You seem to be happy that big wins more than make up for the lost open profits on the other trades. Have you tracked any stats on this?

Have you tested using a more aggressive trail stop with a re-entry technique? At one point you were up 38 points and had 25 points to go to your TP area with your stop at BE. It certainly seems a shame to let 38 points vanish in the hope of getting 25 more.

You said a few posts ago that you were going to start trading two contracts. This is another case where one could have netted you some profit while the other stays on for a ride.

When in doubt, maybe look at it like a new trade? At the blue circle for example, are you confident enough in your analysis that you’re willing to risk 12 points to make 50?

As for an exit point, nothing jumps out at me, even in hindsight (I didn’t trade Friday). The down bar in the purple circle was a significantly higher than average volume push down with no follow through. That isn’t a reversal signal, but maybe it’s a warning?

By the time we get to the blue circle, price has made a higher high, a higher low and is heading for another HH. I guess it depends on how confident you are in your analysis, at what point do you admit that price has reversed?


----------



## CanOz

If you want trends, trade FX. You're trading an index, they run/stop/reverse/run/stop/reverse.


----------



## Newt

CanOz said:


> If you want trends, trade FX. You're trading an index, they run/stop/reverse/run/stop/reverse.




Must confess (from watching the DAX for a few months) this was the strong impression I've had.  Best trades seem to be breakouts from consolidation, or first hour after open, or at news - decisive breaks through 3-4 ATR from consolidated price.  Ranging days then tend to reverse (sometimes off pin bars) pretty quick.  Trending days tend to keep bouncing off 20'ish period moving average.    Only a few trades each day with classic set up conditions, and even then every break has some vicious fades of up to 15 pts as they push out.  

I'm not sure you could reliably do this manually without sitting very patiently for many hours at a time (or being content to pick up the odd set up when you happen to be near the screen).

I guess that's why your trend trades on the FTSE have fascinated me Pav.  
Certainly one thing that's become very obvious is entries and exits are obvious with the power of 20/20 hindsight, but even doing it in replay after having an idea what to expect it isn't in any way easy money. 

Thanks for being honest about your P/L for the year to date too BTW...


----------



## Lone Wolf

Newt said:


> Thanks for being honest about your P/L for the year to date too BTW...




If you're talking about this:



pavilion103 said:


> View attachment 57162




That's not his P/L for the year. He's talking about the backtested results of the new setup he's trying out.


----------



## Trembling Hand

pavilion103 said:


> I'm not unhappy with it, but keen on thoughts.




Don't trade the chart, trade the market. That what makes the difference lasting long term or spending forever trying to understand why the chart didn't do what you thought it was saying it was going to do.


----------



## peter2

OK Pav. IMO your decision to hold Friday's intraday trade for a much bigger move was a poor one and this was due to inadequate preparation. I'm assuming that you didn't know about or worse, chose to ignore the scheduled US news (NFP + employment data) later that evening. This news event is considered a high impact event and generally moves most of the major markets (indicies, CL, GC and treasury bonds). 

IMO you turned your 3min intraday trading setup into a gamble on the news and risked your profits in that gamble. If you really wanted to get 10pt/d (50pt/wk) then you would have taken the 12 and looked for a short after the news. 

Remember the fable about the tortoise and the hare. How about focussing on the 10pt/d until you have enough to trade the bigger moves with a second contract. 

[BTW: The FTSE index data might become more costly (April14) due to the acquisition of NYSE-Euronext by ICE. Check for news. ]


----------



## kid hustlr

Trembling Hand said:


> Don't trade the chart, trade the market. That what makes the difference lasting long term or spending forever trying to understand why the chart didn't do what you thought it was saying it was going to do.




Agreed with TH + Pete

I feel like playing a pattern on a 1 min chart is grasping, realistically its probably your understanding of context +  how the market generally trades which gives you an edge.


TH, if you have any other suggestions on how guys 'trade the market' apart from the stuff you've touched on in the past (time, context, ppl positioned, what are guys thinking etc)?


----------



## pavilion103

Trembling Hand said:


> Don't trade the chart, trade the market. That what makes the difference lasting long term or spending forever trying to understand why the chart didn't do what you thought it was saying it was going to do.




In what ways does it apply to my Friday trade?

Thanks


----------



## pavilion103

peter2 said:


> OK Pav. IMO your decision to hold Friday's intraday trade for a much bigger move was a poor one and this was due to inadequate preparation. I'm assuming that you didn't know about or worse, chose to ignore the scheduled US news (NFP + employment data) later that evening. This news event is considered a high impact event and generally moves most of the major markets (indicies, CL, GC and treasury bonds).  IMO you turned your 3min intraday trading setup into a gamble on the news and risked your profits in that gamble. If you really wanted to get 10pt/d (50pt/wk) then you would have taken the 12 and looked for a short after the news.  Remember the fable about the tortoise and the hare. How about focussing on the 10pt/d until you have enough to trade the bigger moves with a second contract.  [BTW: The FTSE index data might become more costly (April14) due to the acquisition of NYSE-Euronext by ICE. Check for news. ]




Didn't know it was that high impact.

I need to get my head around which news is the biggest in terms if potential impact.

Should have known! The chart ended up going to exactly where I thought it would later! But by then it was too late.


----------



## Trembling Hand

pavilion103 said:


> In what ways does it apply to my Friday trade?
> 
> Thanks




No one in their right mind was going to do any volume before that news came out. So the market was always going to die down leading into it. You were trading a high range/high volume/low occurrence outcome when there was close to zero chance of it happening in the hours before the ann.


----------



## CanOz

pavilion103 said:


> Didn't know it was that high impact.
> 
> I need to get my head around which news is the biggest in terms if potential impact.
> 
> Should have known! The chart ended up going to exactly where I thought it would later! But by then it was too late.




The Red Stars are generally market moving numbers, but we can start a thread on the news/economic numbers and discuss a little more as there needs to be some up to date context allowed for as well. There is also a new book out by Bloomberg on Economic Indicators....will look for it if you're interested but there is plenty around the internet anyway.

BTW, the news trade worked well the other night on the 6E, CL, Bonds, DX, ES, NQ...heaps. The news trade being to try and catch the stop run in the opposite direction as the first news thrust...


----------



## pavilion103

Trembling Hand said:


> No one in their right mind was going to do any volume before that news came out. So the market was always going to die down leading into it. You were trading a high range/high volume/low occurrence outcome when there was close to zero chance of it happening in the hours before the ann.




Sorry TH I'm not sure what you mean. 

Are you saying that because my strategy looks for high volume to determine if there was likely to be a change of direction (i.e. support) that it was ineffective in this situation because that high volume was never going to come in the hours prior to the announcement?


----------



## pavilion103

CanOz said:


> The Red Stars are generally market moving numbers, but we can start a thread on the news/economic numbers and discuss a little more as there needs to be some up to date context allowed for as well. There is also a new book out by Bloomberg on Economic Indicators....will look for it if you're interested but there is plenty around the internet anyway.
> 
> BTW, the news trade worked well the other night on the 6E, CL, Bonds, DX, ES, NQ...heaps. The news trade being to try and catch the stop run in the opposite direction as the first news thrust...




I would love any threads/books/thoughts on this.


----------



## pavilion103

BTW this FTSE chart is looking heavy. 

This is why I was so keen to get on Friday on open. 

I will be more aggressive tonight than usual I think.


----------



## Trembling Hand

pavilion103 said:


> Sorry TH I'm not sure what you mean.
> 
> Are you saying that because my strategy looks for high volume to determine if there was likely to be a change of direction (i.e. support) that it was ineffective in this situation because that high volume was never going to come in the hours prior to the announcement?




No. Forget about you. Think about the participants, the market. There was simply no way in the world that the market was going to go on with that trade as everyone was standing aside waiting. That leads to reversion to the mean...... just about every time. You either scrap for ticks or you don't trade it. 

Your idea lacked foresight into what everyone else were looking at.


----------



## pavilion103

FTSE 1 month, hourly chart




- - - Updated - - -



Trembling Hand said:


> No. Forget about you. Think about the participants, the market. There was simply no way in the world that the market was going to go on with that trade as everyone was standing aside waiting. That leads to reversion to the mean...... just about every time. You either scrap for ticks or you don't trade it.
> 
> Your idea lacked foresight into what everyone else were looking at.





So it then essentially became a gamble on the news?

If it was bad I would have got my outcome. 
If it was good it was going to take me out


----------



## Trembling Hand

pavilion103 said:


> So it then essentially became a gamble on the news?
> 
> If it was bad I would have got my outcome.
> If it was good it was going to take me out




No thats not what I was talking about. You were looking for a 60 tick move in a revision to the mean market. Wrong time and wrong trade.


----------



## CanOz

Trembling Hand said:


> Think about the participants, the market. There was simply no way in the world that the market was going to go on with that trade as everyone was standing aside waiting. That leads to reversion to the mean...... just about every time. You either scrap for ticks or you don't trade it.





Nice little tidbit there TH....


----------



## CanOz

Might be a quiet start to the week, not allot of news out. Perhaps we gap down though, as Asia did on the default news...We've had quite a few directional days lately, being Monday maybe we gap down and rotate around until the US opens...


----------



## beachlife

pavilion103 said:


> Please give me feedback on this.
> Friday's trade.
> 
> Target was 6700ish.
> Got in 6666.
> 
> It was up 38 points at a maximum.
> Ended up as a breakeven trade.
> 
> Notes on chart. My thinking during the trade and why I didn't take profit.
> 
> View attachment 57153




To me it looks like you wanted a 60 point return for a 5 point risk, so longer term target, short term stop, and then became so set on the target, that you ignored what the chart was saying.  It was the exit strategy that let you down, not the entry.


----------



## pavilion103

Does anyone know how the pre-market trading works?

Is there anything to know?

It closes 10 mins before the actual open?

Anything else?


----------



## CanOz

pavilion103 said:


> Does anyone know how the pre-market trading works?
> 
> Is there anything to know?
> 
> It closes 10 mins before the actual open?
> 
> Anything else?




I can't speak for the FTSE but i thought it was the same as the DAX. The DAX futures open at 3:00 PM My time and trade for one hour prior to the cash equity market open. During this time the contract is not really that liquid so i don't trade until after the cash equity market open.

Check out the exchange website for the FTSE details[/URL].


----------



## pavilion103

CanOz said:


> I can't speak for the FTSE but i thought it was the same as the DAX. The DAX futures open at 3:00 PM My time and trade for one hour prior to the cash equity market open. During this time the contract is not really that liquid so i don't trade until after the cash equity market open.
> 
> Check out the exchange website for the FTSE details[/URL].




Thanks


----------



## CanOz

I hear this book being advertised on Bloomberg allot....might be a good reference.


----------



## pavilion103

Tonight's action.


----------



## CanOz

Did better than me mate...I tried to fade the gap close and got slammed with slippage when they ran the stops...me included...then nearly had the ame thing done again as i sold the prior VWAP, but luckily i managed the to take the heat and it dropped...

Net 13 points for the night. Only had 1 trade on the DAX, a Hockey Stick +6.5 points net


----------



## pavilion103

This is insane. I'm up at 12:30am. 

My usual bedtime is 10-10:30pm!

I'll post all charts on Wednesday probably because I won't be trading tomorrow night. 

I've taken a fair bit of profit. 
I'll explain what I intended to do and what I did. 
I'd love feedback. It would be hugely appreciated. 

I'm currently 55 points in profit ($1,020). 
I've got 1 contract left and my stop is 10 points away. 
6995.5

So a guaranteed 45 points for the night. 


Worth staying up for but I am going to pay for it tomorrow! :1zhelp:


----------



## pavilion103

Closed out.

Final trade exited 6670.
Couldn't leave 50 points open.

Total profit for the night = 70 points ($1,300)

First night of two contracts near the high = success


----------



## CanOz

pavilion103 said:


> Closed out.
> 
> Final trade exited 6670.
> Couldn't leave 50 points open.
> 
> Total profit for the night = 70 points ($1,300)
> 
> First night of two contracts near the high = success




Well done Pav, thats a tidy night's work!


----------



## pavilion103

CanOz said:


> Well done Pav, thats a tidy night's work!




Original plan was the hold the two 6720 trades.

Exit one at 6660 (60 points profit)
Hold the other overnight (not sure where stop would be though maybe 6695.5)

Couldn't do it.
Just too darn tired. 
Have to go to bed.


----------



## pavilion103

Glad to see that the market didn't smash down further overnight. US not doing anything crazy. 

The only regret last night was taking the profit on Trade 1 @ 83. 
The clear target was 60 and there was no signs of the trade slowing down. 
But I give myself some mercy because trading 2 contracts and being in that much profit.

It was actually 80 points profit. I miscalculated. 

Very happy overall. 
Only about 20 points off the best possible outcome if I'd taken profit at 60 and let the other one overnight. 
Can't complain with that. 


The only one thing is I think this is a medium term short now. 
I'd love to be holding on. 
Given I won't be on Tuesday and Wednesday night too. 
But I think the risk is too great, given that my trades have been intraday trades. 
So I'll leave it alone.


----------



## kid hustlr

wowza nice!


----------



## pavilion103

Falling asleep at my desk.

Poor strategic move. Given that I have Wednesdays off work I have no idea why I didn't take leave today!


Does anyone in here use profit take orders (for profit targets)?

Would have worked well last night.
I'll need to get onto that.


----------



## CanOz

> Falling asleep at my desk.



 Drink some coffee dude. You still had 6 hours sleep



> Does anyone in here use profit take orders (for profit targets)?




I always use 4 contracts, the first three are taken off at profit targets and i trial the last one 70% of the time. Occasionally i'll move it to an obvious support/resistance level if i think the move should be nearing exhaustion. You can plainly see this on my trades i post. The entries and exits are indicated by on the chart by Ninjatrader.


----------



## pavilion103

Not used to being up till that late.
Less than 5 hours sleep not enough for me.

Yeh I've seen your various contracts exited at different times.

Wish you were local, would have loved to have had a chat racking your brains like I do with Tech!


----------



## CanOz

pavilion103 said:


> Wish you were local, would have loved to have had a chat racking your brains like I do with Tech!




Yeah I've often thought about a Skype group, but then I've been there and done that and its better for me to stay in a quiet space by myself, i've got an ADHD issue as it is

You really need to trade your own ideas, although if your style is similar to Tech's then i can see that making sense.


----------



## Trembling Hand

CanOz said:


> Drink some coffee dude. You still had 6 hours sleep




Yeah man harden up . 6 hours sleep, 68ks on the bike (400Ks in the last 3 days), 50 contracts rolled over in the first 40 min and 4 coffes down. Just another morning. :silly::cup:


----------



## pavilion103

Haha boys!

I am self proclaimed soft haha.


----------



## pavilion103

What are people's thoughts on some of these markets. 

The past few days I've thought that the FTSE is looking heavy. 

Anyone expecting a big fall in the next few days?

I will continue to look for shorts when I am on.


----------



## CanOz

pavilion103 said:


> What are people's thoughts on some of these markets.
> 
> The past few days I've thought that the FTSE is looking heavy.
> 
> Anyone expecting a big fall in the next few days?
> 
> I will continue to look for shorts when I am on.




We've got a couple of access lows on the FTSE, with 6643-50 being a bit of a line in the sand. 

The DAX is fared worse though and it looks like it might have further to go if the bottom of the bracket is the target, 9000.

The US Dollar has broken down from a consolidation and the Euro has broken out of a concolidation. The US markets haven't rolled over and last night closed off the lows. Every push lower in Europe is muted by the US strength, it seems. 

So, either way could provide some action, but the key will be what happens when the markets sell off versus when they rally, how intense is the liquidation or covering? _Trade what you see and not what you think..._


----------



## CanOz

There is some news out of the UK today and some minor EU news....


----------



## Trembling Hand

pavilion103 said:


> What are people's thoughts on some of these markets.
> 
> The past few days I've thought that the FTSE is looking heavy.
> 
> Anyone expecting a big fall in the next few days?
> 
> I will continue to look for shorts when I am on.




You seem to be stuck in a cycle of wanting to swing for the fences..... and mostly short.


----------



## pavilion103

It looks bearish to me.
I've also looked at longs at the right times.

I think I'm doing well.
Unlearning and making a stack too.
Would love to ask some questions in PM. Have been meaning to.

I managed to take a short before I left tonight. 
Wide stop.
Now to 6 point risk.
It's a break in my class.

I hope it keeps going.


----------



## pavilion103

1 trade 
21 points


----------



## CanOz

Hmmm, i think i smell fear, and its likely coming from someones shorts!!


----------



## pavilion103

Home early. 
Trade 2 - 1 point profit. Exited my short. Near support now. 

Potential trade 3 - pending order on long 6645.5, stop 6640.5


Edit: taken. 
Had this post here and forgot to post!


----------



## pavilion103

CanOz said:


> Hmmm, i think i smell fear, and its likely coming from someones shorts!!




I'm long.


----------



## CanOz

pavilion103 said:


> I'm long.




I'm long at 45 with two off already and looking to take no. three at the VWAP, 6660....if it continues. Then i'll leave a runner and see if we can get a decent short covering rally going or it fizzles out....


----------



## pavilion103

CanOz said:


> I'm long at 45 with two off already and looking to take no. three at the VWAP, 6660....if it continues. Then i'll leave a runner and see if we can get a decent short covering rally going or it fizzles out....




Good work. 
I considered a second here. 
Didn't take it.


----------



## pavilion103

Stop to BE @ 45. 
Want to go to bed soon. 

Up 11 points on this trade. 
21 on trades 1+2

I wouldn't be surprised if you guys thought I was BSing you with my results lately. 
It's been a ridiculous run. 
Everything is just coming off for me.


----------



## CanOz

Third one off at 59.5...just the runner left now....stop at 50...


----------



## pavilion103

Crucify my forum members but my stop is BE, and I might let it run.

Support around 40-50 area has been touched 3 times. 

Not much to lose and want to go to bed.


----------



## CanOz

pavilion103 said:


> Crucify my forum members but my stop is BE, and I might let it run.
> 
> Support around 40-50 area has been touched 3 times.
> 
> Not much to lose and want to go to bed.




I'm awaiting a pullback to 53 half to raise my trail.....if that fails we could test 45 again.

edit: I'm out and even for the night pretty much....


----------



## pavilion103

Going to bed now.

Decided to exit at 65 for another 20 points profit.

I think the upside potential isn't worth risking the 20 points for.

The daily chart still looks weak to me.
Last two down days on higher volume.

We'll see what I wake up to!

Feel satisfied with 41 points for tonight.


----------



## pavilion103

If it was in a bull trend I would have almost definitely held over nights.

Wish I'd taken 2 contracts again but I can't complain too much


----------



## pavilion103

As expected tested the 90 area.

I reckon a decent short tonight. Chart is looking a little sick IMO.

Hope it doesn't get smashed pre open


----------



## CanOz

Regarding the use of the opening range on the FTSE. Using a 1.5 hour opening range trading system, active only after the last  daily bar was the narrowest range bar of the previous 5, you can see how effective the opening range is on the FTSE over the last year. First chart is 1:1 risk / reward and the second is holding until the opening range begins the next day.


----------



## CanOz

My little fear indicator has changed colors...these are just 240 minute trends of the 6J, 6A, DX, ZB, and ZN


----------



## pavilion103

Much stuffing around from me tonight.
Didn't take the initial entry I saw at 42. Would have been a good place to leave stop at BE if I wanted it to run.
In and out of 2 contracts.
Stuffed around to be down 12 points.

Currently in one @ 6626, stop 6631.5

Price hovering around 6615 at present.


----------



## CanOz

I reckon there wouldn't be too many times that the FTSE closes on its low in the hour leading up to the US open. There must be a good portion of traders wanting to take profits before the US starts trading. 

Thats my thinking anyway...


----------



## pavilion103

I'm out. 

Finished 10 points down for the night. 

Damage limitation after missing a good trade early and closing out of another!

Interested to see where this finishes tomorrow morning.


----------



## CanOz

+24 net tonight, should have been taking the shorts and less of the longs


----------



## Lone Wolf

Meanwhile, in the amateur corner...




Wasn't home for the open. One failed attempt to go short. One successful short that I couldn't decide if I should let run or take a quick 10 points - Did neither and got 8.

Considered one short on some weakness that I didn't take because we were at the low of the day.

Tried to take the next short at the top of the channel for a quick ride to the bottom of the channel. Too slow getting the order in. I need to setup my hotkeys/presets.

The run back to the top of the channel looked strong and I wanted to go long - target 6626.5. But didn't because I didn't really see a good reversal besides the fact that the recent few bars looked strong.

I might have been looking too hard for reasons to get in tonight, after sitting on the side all last night watching two smooth trends unfold.


----------



## kid hustlr

lol Lone I took the EXACT same short (like to the tick, same entry and stop) as your first short. Pav told me my stop was too tight and he was right.


just though it was funny


----------



## havaiana

CanOz said:


> Regarding the use of the opening range on the FTSE. Using a 1.5 hour opening range trading system, active only after the last  daily bar was the narrowest range bar of the previous 5, you can see how effective the opening range is on the FTSE over the last year. First chart is 1:1 risk / reward and the second is holding until the opening range begins the next day.




That's pretty awesome results for something so simple, especially the second one. Is the max drawdown figure correct? looks a little low


----------



## Trembling Hand

Lone Wolf said:


> Meanwhile, in the amateur corner...
> 
> 
> Tried to take the next short at the top of the channel for a quick ride to the bottom of the channel. Too slow getting the order in. I need to setup my hotkeys/presets.




Why? You guys need to dump the commsec mentality of trading and use the DOM. Its one click and you are in with bracket stop and limit orders.

I mean really what is this too slow.


----------



## CanOz

havaiana said:


> That's pretty awesome results for something so simple, especially the second one. Is the max drawdown figure correct? looks a little low




It's in points....


----------



## havaiana

CanOz said:


> It's in points....




 after all the time i spent on ninja too...


----------



## pavilion103

Some random thoughts this morning to keep me on track. I need this drummed in.


----------



## Lone Wolf

kid hustlr said:


> lol Lone I took the EXACT same short (like to the tick, same entry and stop) as your first short. Pav told me my stop was too tight and he was right.
> 
> 
> just though it was funny




Nice to know that at least someone had the same idea.

I’m not actually bothered by it though. I saw what I thought was a potential entry short. But when it reversed I had no idea if short was still the theme for the day or if we were continuing higher.

I’d rather take a small loss and wait for clarity than to hold through a larger drawdown and hope that it comes back. I’ll probably change my tune when I gain more experience, but at the moment with my crap entries the only thing keeping my demo account out of the red is the fact that I don’t lose much when I lose. 




Trembling Hand said:


> Why? You guys need to dump the commsec mentality of trading and use the DOM. Its one click and you are in with bracket stop and limit orders.
> 
> I mean really what is this too slow.




I wouldn’t lump me with the other guys, I’m sure they’re doing fine. But you’re right, I need to use the DOM.


----------



## Lone Wolf

After an impulsive move down off the open and a chop back up, I tried for a short at 6623 on a limit order when price had stalled. 3 points risk.

Initial target was 6606, but I lost my nerve when for a while it struggled to gain any momentum. Closed out for +10.5.

There was an opportunity to get back in for another 10 points. No real reason why I didn't, probably the same reason I exited - fear.


----------



## beachlife

pavilion103 said:


> Some random thoughts this morning to keep me on track. I need this drummed in.
> 
> 
> 
> View attachment 57219




You could simply all that by simply writing stick to the plan


----------



## pavilion103

Got the short around 6620 last night.

Held when I went to bed.

Woke up and stupidly closed at 50 point profit.

The problem was that I had no rule.

New rule - if I hold I don't check it in the middle of the night.

All good though. 50 points isn't bad.


----------



## pavilion103

beachlife said:


> You could simply all that by simply writing stick to the plan




Just need to reinforce the key parts of my plan that I need front of mind!


----------



## pavilion103

Over the weekend I'll post a chart of the trade from last night.

I was a whisker away from taking a second contract. But all good. 

It just shows the potential. Could have easily been a few thousand with a little luck. 

Being new to taking 2 contracts I'm a little hesitant at times. But this will change with experience. 

Very excited at the moment


----------



## Trembling Hand

pavilion103 said:


> Just need to reinforce the key parts of my plan that I need front of mind!




Yeah I do that too. Have things that I am working on with a big conscious effort. More so than all the 100s of other things that I'm also trying to improve on.


----------



## CanOz

pavilion103 said:


> Over the weekend I'll post a chart of the trade from last night.
> 
> I was a whisker away from taking a second contract. But all good.
> 
> It just shows the potential. Could have easily been a few thousand with a little luck.
> 
> Being new to taking 2 contracts I'm a little hesitant at times. But this will change with experience.
> 
> Very excited at the moment





I'm not sure that holding overnight with geopolitical tensions in the background is a wise idea. A resolution to the Crimea thing, or a new stimulus package out of China might see a massive gap up beyond your stop, wiping out an entire quarters worth of profits. 

Certainly an exit before close would have payed you well last night. I have a little twist to my open range trade that I'm hoping will show you that there is little benefit in changing your day trade into a swing trade. With NinjaTrader, even possibly IB you can set a time to flatten your trade. If you want to try and leave a runner on into the close to try and catch these rare opportunities then that to me would make the most sense. But lets try and prove it factually using the Open Range system. Will try to get this done today.


----------



## pavilion103

Trembling Hand said:


> Yeah I do that too. Have things that I am working on with a big conscious effort. More so than all the 100s of other things that I'm also trying to improve on.




Oh come on... If you've got that many things to improve on then there is no hope for me :O lol!


----------



## pavilion103

I set my alarm to 5:45 and intended to exit in the morning.

Can it gap like that while the market is trading?
Or only once it's closed in the morning?


----------



## CanOz

pavilion103 said:


> I set my alarm to 5:45 and intended to exit in the morning.
> 
> Can it gap like that while the market is trading?
> Or only once it's closed in the morning?




A news release during treading might result in a massive sweep, but generally you'd get out with some slippage...Yeah exiting on the close is the go. Check out IB for setting that up, maybe a MOC order, Market on Close.


----------



## beachlife

pavilion103 said:


> Just need to reinforce the key parts of my plan that I need front of mind!




Then you need to find a way to write them in a positive way that will reinforce.  All the mindset books say the sub conscience mind doesnt recognise words like never, dont, wont etc.  A bit like goal setting.  It must be a positive statement.


----------



## pavilion103

beachlife said:


> Then you need to find a way to write them in a positive way that will reinforce.  All the mindset books say the sub conscience mind doesnt recognise words like never, dont, wont etc.  A bit like goal setting.  It must be a positive statement.




I disagree.

I think there are two parts

1) heavily drum in the things you need to be doing   
2) heavily drum in the traps to be avoided.

Do more of 1) and do less of 2)


I've read over 200 books on mindset/personal development so I know what you mean....

But this isn't about hyping myself up to be a great trader or changing my mindset to think that I can achieve. I already have that.

It's about practically (and objectively as possible) identifying the good and bad things in my trading.


----------



## havaiana

pavilion103 said:


> I disagree.
> 
> I think there are two parts
> 
> 1) heavily drum in the things you need to be doing
> 2) heavily drum in the traps to be avoided.
> 
> Do more of 1) and do less of 2)
> ...




I think beach may be referring purely to the wording:

change
never take a large risk trade unless it's open profit

to
take large risk trades only when in open profit

or something like that


I don't go for much of the psychology stuff myself, but I have noticed when I have a focus for the day, I do find it easier to focus on 'doing' something rather than 'not doing' something, so I will usually find a way to 'do' something to prevent whatever I want to eliminate or reduce.


----------



## beachlife

havaiana said:


> I think beach may be referring purely to the wording:
> 
> change
> never take a large risk trade unless it's open profit
> 
> to
> take large risk trades only when in open profit
> 
> or something like that
> 
> 
> I don't go for much of the psychology stuff myself, but I have noticed when I have a focus for the day, I do find it easier to focus on 'doing' something rather than 'not doing' something, so I will usually find a way to 'do' something to prevent whatever I want to eliminate or reduce.




exactly.  I'm not saying stand in front of the mirror and chant I'm a super trader 50 times, but make your statements more about what you are going to do.

eg,

never trade out of fear... could be I will trade according to my plan

I can miss many big moves... could be there is a big move every day.

never take a large risk... could be I will follow my money management rules.

you get the idea.  Shift the focus to what you want to do.


It also sounds like the 2 contract thing is stressing you a bit.  Maybe pyramid in and take the second contract once the first can be moved to break even, that way the loss risk is the same as for 1 contract.  

Also you seem to want to catch longer moves, maybe open a second account and trade 2 systems in 2 accounts.


----------



## pavilion103

Definitely considered adding in a second contract  with further confirmation but I think I'm trading well with one and it won't take long before putting two on is natural.

Definitely multiple contracts gives more trade management options!


----------



## pavilion103

Will likely be a low-key couple of weeks from me boys. 

I won't be on next 2 nights I've decided. I have class and then I want to go to bed early. 
Even though I think a good short could be on I need to forgo it. 

Will be on start of Wed (1st hour), all Thurs and start of Fri (first hour). 

In 2 weeks when the D/L savings in UK changes it will help. 
The following week when it changes in AUS, it will help further. 

Then I will be 100% committed each day and raring to go. 


After some really strong success and long hours at the screen, I am going to pull myself away in these next 2 weeks except for the hours above and get a clear mind and hopefully get even better results upon return. 

Enjoy guys!


----------



## CanOz

Today on the DAX, used the 'hockey stick' pattern as my exit criteria on my runner.


----------



## havaiana

This is a blog post, but as no one reads it, figure there will be a higher chance of receiving some comments/advice/criticism here:

"here's my first couple of hours today, I wrote down my thoughts as it was all happening in real time and have posted as quick as I could. This is a pretty big distraction so going to concentrate on trading now. AUD/USD top, USD/JPY bottom.




*context*
I like buys in both into the new highs today, whether it goes straight there or we have a retracement first. After highs are gone will wait for momentum to start to wear off, stocks reverse and look for fades. So plan is long on open into highs. if if going lower to to fade after momentum of downmove wears off and hold into highs. Possible fade above highs if gets there.

1. get filled on first long at blue arrow. yen is fighting the nikkei a bit early and i start to feel we could have a bit of a squeeze lower. exit a contract at first pink arrow with plan to scratch and re enter lower if there is a squeeze lower and still have a contract on if it doesn't happen. exit second contract at 2nd pink arrow after watching reaction on nikkei at highs, just don't like it. will think about getting short now above these new highs or above 102 depending on reaction.
2. trying to work an order in at the x here, not filled
3. this is the reaction i was looking for first time, wish i was still long. still looks too bullish to fade here even though nikkei is struggling
4. looking for long here on aud, nikkei is looking very heavy and I am again liking short of USD/JPY. These moves are against eachother in terms of buying or selling risk so I decide USD/JPY is the best to go with as RBA statement comes out soon, stop looking at AUD for now.
5. looking for short here with small stop at highs. will exit and look to reshort at break of highs.
6. Nikkei still looking heavy but someone still bidding up USD/JPY. hold off short for now. Going to wait for RBA statement which should be nothing of surprise and not really a big focus, will fade any decent move in either direction of AUD after announcemement
7. Going to short above this first bar (first bar after statement) if it gets there again, if not I will have a pretty strong bias short and look to get in somewhere else later.
8. wanted short before break of this level. bias more heavily short now but will hold off for good spot, Also like AUD short better so that will be my main focus unless something happens to change my opinion"


----------



## Caveroute

havaiana said:


> This is a blog post, but as no one reads it, figure there will be a higher chance of receiving some comments/advice/criticism here:
> 
> "here's my first couple of hours today, I wrote down my thoughts as it was all happening in real time and have posted as quick as I could. This is a pretty big distraction so going to concentrate on trading now. AUD/USD top, USD/JPY bottom.
> 
> View attachment 57269
> 
> 
> *context*
> I like buys in both into the new highs today, whether it goes straight there or we have a retracement first. After highs are gone will wait for momentum to start to wear off, stocks reverse and look for fades. So plan is long on open into highs. if if going lower to to fade after momentum of downmove wears off and hold into highs. Possible fade above highs if gets there.
> 
> 1. get filled on first long at blue arrow. yen is fighting the nikkei a bit early and i start to feel we could have a bit of a squeeze lower. exit a contract at first pink arrow with plan to scratch and re enter lower if there is a squeeze lower and still have a contract on if it doesn't happen. exit second contract at 2nd pink arrow after watching reaction on nikkei at highs, just don't like it. will think about getting short now above these new highs or above 102 depending on reaction.
> 2. trying to work an order in at the x here, not filled
> 3. this is the reaction i was looking for first time, wish i was still long. still looks too bullish to fade here even though nikkei is struggling
> 4. looking for long here on aud, nikkei is looking very heavy and I am again liking short of USD/JPY. These moves are against eachother in terms of buying or selling risk so I decide USD/JPY is the best to go with as RBA statement comes out soon, stop looking at AUD for now.
> 5. looking for short here with small stop at highs. will exit and look to reshort at break of highs.
> 6. Nikkei still looking heavy but someone still bidding up USD/JPY. hold off short for now. Going to wait for RBA statement which should be nothing of surprise and not really a big focus, will fade any decent move in either direction of AUD after announcemement
> 7. Going to short above this first bar (first bar after statement) if it gets there again, if not I will have a pretty strong bias short and look to get in somewhere else later.
> 8. wanted short before break of this level. bias more heavily short now but will hold off for good spot, Also like AUD short better so that will be my main focus unless something happens to change my opinion"




Hi, I read your blog. 

If understand things correctly you seem to be on average  scalping for < 1t per RT, 30-50 trades a day, a form of manual HFT if you like.

If your comfortable with that then ok, but it seems an an awful lot of hard work for very limited returns. 

And commissions really eat into your bottom line. 

Is this an experiment or are you committed to trading this way ?


----------



## havaiana

Caveroute said:


> Hi, I read your blog.
> ...




If understand things correctly you seem to be on average  scalping for < 1t per RT, 30-50 trades a day, a form of manual HFT if you like.

*I wouldn't refer to it as scalping as I have winners frequently in the 15-30 tick range. I would consider myself a liquidity provider I suppose. The currencies in Asia don't have the sort of range that index futures do over the euro open that most people here are trading, so the opportunity is a bit different, the average return is much smaller, but crucially the losses are much smaller too*

If your comfortable with that then ok, but it seems an an awful lot of hard work for very limited returns. 

*Agree on the hard work bit. A key point is the potential returns and the ability to size up, that's why prop usually want active traders. I can lose 10 trades a day and still have a decent day whereas if you are less active, yes your returns per round turn can be a lot larger but so are your drawdowns and ability to size up and have a somewhat smooth equity curve in comparison with someone who is having a couple of trades a day.

If you have a big return per round turn, but could make more money trading more while making less per round turn why not do it? I could definitely make more money per round turn trading a lot less, but it wont necessarily make me more money, especially in the future.

If I can maintain an average of 1 tick per round turn consistently enough, that would be enough to make me rich pretty quickly*

And commissions really eat into your bottom line. 

*Tell me about it. The first 3 weeks of barely above breakeven after commission are below my usual results with this but yes I do pay a ridiculous % in commission in comparison to how much i take out of the market. I may switch to index futures when I have the bankroll for it*

Is this an experiment or are you committed to trading this way ?

*I have been doing this for about a year now (it has evolved over time and still is), it's still definitely a work in progress and looking to improve it substantially still*


*One more comment/question, maybe kid hustler can answer? about how much on average per round turn would a spreader make? I would guess it isn't much but that is what prop seem to be after these days and they are only in the business to make money trading*


----------



## havaiana

My post is too long and all over the place. Just want to emphasise the point I was trying to make so it's not lost in it

In my opinion a high frequency of trades + smoother equity curve + less return per round trip

beats

low frequency of trades + less smooth equity curve + higher return per round trip


As long as the strategy can be traded with larger size without negatively effecting the returns too much


----------



## Trembling Hand

Caveroute said:


> If your comfortable with that then ok, but it seems an an awful lot of hard work for very limited returns.




Actually its the opposite. If you are going to trade you are going to be wasting a lot of time in front of a computer. It seems like a better approach to actually get paid for that time rather than wasting day after day, year after year waiting for the hot run. 

If you do 10 trades a day it only takes you a month to find out if you can trade without any doubt. My bet is that 99% of people here who trade less than 2-4 times a day cannot say with 100% confidence that they can trade.


----------



## peter2

Haviana: You post that you generally trade with two contracts. I think it would be constructive for you to calculate your edge on each contract every time you started with two. IMO you will see that you don't have a positive edge with your first contract as you exit too soon. If you have an edge on your second contract then it is being eroded by the losses of the first contract. IMO your first contract should be managed to pay for your trading costs leaving the second contract to earn the big bucks. 

I should point out that I don't manage my trading this way and I wouldn't normally advocate this management style, but in this case I think it might help you improve when you see the facts (1st/2nd contract edges).


----------



## havaiana

peter2 said:


> Haviana: You post that you generally trade with two contracts. I think it would be constructive for you to calculate your edge on each contract every time you started with two. IMO you will see that you don't have a positive edge with your first contract as you exit too soon. If you have an edge on your second contract then it is being eroded by the losses of the first contract. IMO your first contract should be managed to pay for your trading costs leaving the second contract to earn the big bucks.
> 
> I should point out that I don't manage my trading this way and I wouldn't normally advocate this management style, but in this case I think it might help you improve when you see the facts (1st/2nd contract edges).




Yeah good point, I have done this previously and the first contract was profitable, but barely (could quite easily be in the negative given my recent results).

It reduced my overall profits (compared to just holding it with the second one) but also reduced drawdown pretty significantly which just meant less daily stops hit and less risk to my small bank. It also makes trading much easier mentally, which should not really be a deciding factor but was definitely part of the reason

My trading has changed a little bit since I tested it though so I definitely need to check this out again. Think I'll make it one of next weeks focuses.


----------



## pavilion103

I obviously trade completely differently but seems like excruciating work.

I'd rather come on take a trade in the first hour or so, hold for 30 or 40 points x 2 contracts. 
Sit there and read/do something else or set a profit take target and walk away (can put an SMS alert to tell me when in out).
Then maybe hit the market the other way if there is a good setup.

Different personality types prefer different approaches I guess. But I'm more a set and forget. Make 40-80 points in the night and not have to be glued to the screen constantly trading. This is working very well for me.

But as I said, different approaches.


----------



## havaiana

pavilion103 said:


> I obviously trade completely differently but seems like excruciating work.
> 
> I'd rather come on take a trade in the first hour or so, hold for 30 or 40 points x 2 contracts.
> Sit there and read/do something else or set a profit take target and walk away (can put an SMS alert to tell me when in out).
> Then maybe hit the market the other way if there is a good setup.
> 
> Different personality types prefer different approaches I guess. But I'm more a set and forget. Make 40-80 points in the night and not have to be glued to the screen constantly trading. This is working very well for me.
> 
> But as I said, different approaches.




Yeah more than 1 way to skin a cat.

If you don't mind my asking, what sort of win rate are you running at and how many trades do you average a night? Have you calculated what sort of losing streak you can expect to go through given your win rate after 'x' trades and have you hit that losing streak yet?

Reason I ask is because most people taking 1 or 2 trades a night have no idea what a normal losing streak would be for them and how long the streak could last for (or even what their true win rate, R:R etc actually is) because they haven't had a large enough sample of trades. Then when the normal losing streak finally happens many don't/wont survive. Then it can be hard to tell if it is just a normal losing streak or a changed market that no longer offers the edge.

I'm not implying your one of these people by the way, I certainly couldn't make 30-40 points a night, much respect.

here is a calculator for anyone who might want to do this, the results can be surprising over a large sample especially if win rate is less than 50%. Note that this is only for consecutive losses, doesn't take into consideration chances of losing streaks broken up by a win or 2
http://www.sbrforum.com/betting-tools/streak-calculator/


----------



## Caveroute

Trembling Hand said:


> Actually its the opposite. If you are going to trade you are going to be wasting a lot of time in front of a computer. It seems like a better approach to actually get paid for that time rather than wasting day after day, year after year waiting for the hot run.
> 
> If you do 10 trades a day it only takes you a month to find out if you can trade without any doubt. My bet is that 99% of people here who trade less than 2-4 times a day cannot say with 100% confidence that they can trade.




If I spend 8hrs in front of the screen and take one 4 tick win after 7hrs 55 minutes, is that any worse than taking 20 trades and walking away with 4 ticks, after 8 hrs ?

I'd prefer the latter.

I'd rather concentrate on the higher probability trades and increase my size rather than take more trades.


----------



## Trembling Hand

Caveroute said:


> If I spend 8hrs in front of the screen and take one 4 tick win after 7hrs 55 minutes, is that any worse than taking 20 trades and walking away with 4 ticks, after 8 hrs ?
> 
> I'd prefer the latter.
> 
> I'd rather concentrate on the higher probability trades and increase my size rather than take more trades.




Nah the point is you are both likely to be taking "higher probability trades" because time frame has no influence on that. So you will still be around the same win rate but 19 trades behind. 95 trades behind come the end of the week for the same time in front of the screen. As a result the trader that has taken 100 trades is far far far more likely to be ahead due to positive expectancy than the guy that has taken just 5 trades and far more likely to have caught a few outliers in that week.


----------



## ThingyMajiggy

Trembling Hand said:


> Nah the point is you are both likely to be taking "higher probability trades" because time frame has no influence on that. So you will still be around the same win rate but 19 trades behind. 95 trades behind come the end of the week for the same time in front of the screen. As a result the trader that has taken 100 trades is far far far more likely to be ahead due to positive expectancy than the guy that has taken just 5 trades and far more likely to have caught a few outliers in that week.




How do we find that many trades though? Especially when scalping doesn't work(as well as it once did, going by what you and other guys have said) and we're trying to catch the main move of the day, I have a job to find 10 trades a day to do, I would be just firing away to make sure I get to X amount of trades for the week, seems kind of pointless?


----------



## Caveroute

Trembling Hand said:


> Nah the point is you are both likely to be taking "higher probability trades" because time frame has no influence on that.  .




But it does, there are only so many high probability trades in a session.


----------



## Trembling Hand

ThingyMajiggy said:


> How do we find that many trades though? Especially when scalping doesn't work(as well as it once did, going by what you and other guys have said) and we're trying to catch the main move of the day, I have a job to find 10 trades a day to do, I would be just firing away to make sure I get to X amount of trades for the week, seems kind of pointless?




Here is an exercise for everyone to prove how friggin pointless the "we're trying to catch the main move of the day". Right down 10 minutes before the open what the main move will be. Then half way into the day. If anyone can get 40% win rate I'll become a value investor.

Its easy to find lots of 10-30 point winning trades in stuff like the HSI, CL, Dax, YM, EURO,AUD etc. You can hit them day in day out no matter what the type of day is. And the odd one can turn out to be the "catch the main move of the day" type of trade.


----------



## Trembling Hand

Caveroute said:


> But it does, there are only so many high probability trades in a session.




Oh really?? .... unless you can post some evidence. Maybe 100 days of trading with these so called " high probability trades" showing a high win rate and a high R:R you are under a spell sold by the youtube gurus trying to pimp nonsense.


----------



## kid hustlr

havaiana said:


> *One more comment/question, maybe kid hustler can answer? about how much on average per round turn would a spreader make? I would guess it isn't much but that is what prop seem to be after these days and they are only in the business to make money trading*




I'm not sure I quite understand the question and if I do understand the question then I think the answer is 'it varies'. It's hard for me to answer in detail because each prop shop and their traders have different deals when it comes to how much brokerage they pay and what form of rebate scheme they are on. 

Obviously the ideal prop shop takes a very small clip on top of the brokerage you pay to the SFE and is also fair with regards to rebates. However I stress that this will vary and I stress that there are some shops out there which take advantage of their traders probably way more than they should.

that being said, same raw numbers for you:

- If I make half a tick on a spread trade in the curve (3s10s) then after brokerage my net win is circa $340
- If I lose half a tick on a spread trade in the curve (3s10s) then after brokerage my net loss is circa $560

If I havent answered your question then fire away again and I'll do my best but long story short brokerage/commisions in spread trading (especially in the front end of the curve) is a HUGE drag.


----------



## Caveroute

Trembling Hand said:


> Oh really?? .... unless you can post some evidence. Maybe 100 days of trading with these so called " high probability trades" showing a high win rate and a high R:R you are under a spell sold by the youtube gurus trying to pimp nonsense.




Well all my internet pimps sing the same song, maybe it's a coincidence.

I didn't mention R:R - its actually not that great, but the probability makes up for it.

The ASF pimps  sing so many different songs it's a cacophony.


----------



## kid hustlr

Slightly confused by the # of trades per day discussion as well. Perhaps I'm just tired 

I echo what T/H is saying in that the best traders are the active ones. In my experience they are always looking, in and out in and out, constantly thinking and constantly moving with the themes of the mkt.

Statistically when comparing the above to a guy who takes 1 trades a day this is obviously true as well in that more trades leads to a better distribution of results = more accuracy yada yada yada

That being said T/H I don't think you are suggesting one needs to scalp? Some days one is just best buy and hold. I think you are making the point that the best traders have a number of profitable set ups and take on a huge number of trades because they just see it better and trade accordingly. This in turn gives a smoother equity curve in the long run when compared to joe blow who was bullish in an up trending market and has made a killing for the last 3 months buying on open and selling 4 hours later. Truth be told he has no clue whether he's profitable or not because well, there's no way to know yet.


----------



## Wysiwyg

Caveroute said:


> But it does, there are only so many high probability trades in a session.



I spend much time validating my mechanical systems and watching market movement. I use DTN IQFeed for back testing and actual testing FX markets. In one 24 hour period I have the following trades. Varies a little but proportionately similar. $5/pip 

Timeframe

1 hour  =  1 trade (1 win $60)
30 mins. = 0 trades
15 mins = 0 trades
5 mins = 2 trades (2 wins $73) 
1 min = 8 trades (5 wins, 3 losses $144)

Interesting hey.


----------



## Trembling Hand

Caveroute said:


> Well all my internet pimps sing the same song, maybe it's a coincidence.



What is the logic behind this so called sweet spot that makes your trades more "high probability" than Joe Jobber trading on a 1 min chart or Sammy Swinger trading on an hourly or daily? Are you saying that your setups have a intrinsic market truth that is not available in other time frames? 


kid hustlr said:


> That being said T/H I don't think you are suggesting one needs to scalp? Some days one is just best buy and hold. I think you are making the point that the best traders have a number of profitable set ups and take on a huge number of trades because they just see it better and trade accordingly. This in turn gives a smoother equity curve in the long run when compared to joe blow who was bullish in an up trending market and has made a killing for the last 3 months buying on open and selling 4 hours later. Truth be told he has no clue whether he's profitable or not because well, there's no way to know yet.




Correct. I doubt anyone scalps nor could anyone outside of big prop traders who are getting rebates make it work. But markets are freeing up lately. There is still lots of bots out there but the lock ups have faded away. The waves are back in all time frames. If you can trade one time well you might make it. If you can recognise what is the optimal time frame each day or over the next hour and trade it well then you will be swinging 20-50 lots in no time and life will start looking very rosy. 



Wysiwyg said:


> Timeframe
> 
> 1 hour  =  1 trade (1 win $60)
> 30 mins. = 0 trades
> 15 mins = 0 trades
> 5 mins = 2 trades (2 wins $73)
> 1 min = 8 trades (5 wins, 3 losses $144)
> 
> Interesting hey.




Yeah it is. It is also logical.


----------



## Caveroute

Trembling Hand said:


> What is the logic behind this so called sweet spot that makes your trades more "high probability" than Joe Jobber trading on a 1 min chart or Sammy Swinger trading on an hourly or daily? Are you saying that your setups have a intrinsic market truth that is not available in other time frames?




Any timeframe you want. 

Usually 2nd entries, with trend, at the right location with the right signal bar.

Or 2nd entries, top/bottom of a range with the right signal bar.

That's all. They are very common, you get 20+ per session - regular as clockwork.

If I dropped down to the 5 tick chart I would get even more.....


----------



## Trembling Hand

Caveroute said:


> Any timeframe you want.
> 
> Usually 2nd entries, with trend, at the right location with the right signal bar.
> 
> That's all. They are very common, you get 20+ per session.




You have lost me. I'm not sure what you mean.


----------



## CanOz

Fark and here i was thinking it was me!



> But markets are freeing up lately. There is still lots of bots out there but the lock ups have faded away. The waves are back in all time frames. If you can trade one time well you might make it. If you can recognise what is the optimal time frame each day or over the next hour and trade it well then you will be swinging 20-50 lots in no time and life will start looking very rosy.


----------



## Caveroute

Trembling Hand said:


> You have lost me. I'm not sure what you mean.




What didn't you get - the 20+ was sarcasm, it's more like 2-6 per session.


----------



## Caveroute

Trembling Hand said:


> Here is an exercise for everyone to prove how friggin pointless the "we're trying to catch the main move of the day". Right down 10 minutes before the open what the main move will be. Then half way into the day. If anyone can get 40% win rate I'll become a value investor.
> 
> Its easy to find lots of 10-30 point winning trades in stuff like the HSI, CL, Dax, YM, EURO,AUD etc. You can hit them day in day out no matter what the type of day is. And the odd one can turn out to be the "catch the main move of the day" type of trade.




Totally agree.

But  it's not so 'easy', you never know how it will pan out and sometimes your just lucky, or it goes to where you think it might.

The shorter the horizon the higher the probability your target will be met, all things being equal.


----------



## CanOz

Trembling Hand said:


> You have lost me. I'm not sure what you mean.




C'mon TH...you must be out of touch...

Its PAT...Price Action Technique trading...Ala Al Brooks etc...

Just using a chart, no indicators, not even volume.


----------



## kid hustlr

http://uk.reuters.com/article/2014/03/18/ftse-futures-idUKL6N0MF47L20140318

OH REALLY


----------



## havaiana

kid hustlr said:


> ....
> If I havent answered your question then fire away again and I'll do my best but long story short brokerage/commisions in spread trading (especially in the front end of the curve) is a HUGE drag.




More than answered my question, thanks. Just trying to point out about a lot of prop having traders using methods with very low average tick profit per round turn (in comparison to what retail traders are aiming for) because there are other more important factors.

I personally don't believe it's possible long term to consistently achieve the amount of ticks per round turn some people here seem to be aiming for (trading chart patterns). But then again, Pav is achieving well above what I thought was possible and I hope I am wrong and he continues to do so. I have also never traded UK/Euro index futures during euro sessions (or even looked at them much, maybe I should) and am a long way from a great trader myself so wtf would I know anyway.


----------



## Trembling Hand

Caveroute said:


> Totally agree.
> 
> But  it's not so 'easy', you never know how it will pan out and sometimes your just lucky, or it goes to where you think it might.
> 
> The shorter the horizon the higher the probability your target will be met, all things being equal.




Now I really have no idea what point you are trying to make.  First you said there was only a few "high probability" trades per day. Now you are saying the shorter the time frame the "the higher the probability your target will be met". By that logic you agree with me and not with your first point. That is, a ten point target trade is now MORE  "high probability" than your two trades a day aiming for more points.


----------



## Caveroute

Trembling Hand said:


> Now I really have no idea what point you are trying to make.  First you said there was only a few "high probability" trades per day. Now you are saying the shorter the time frame the "the higher the probability your target will be met". By that logic you agree with me and not with your first point. That is, a ten point target trade is now MORE  "high probability" than your two trades a day aiming for more points.




Ok, let me see if I can put this another way.

Assume that your trade has a scalp component and and a swing component - where lets say you trade 2n contracts, sell n at 4 ticks, move your stop to b/e and let the rest run, say to a stop on the  opposite side of a channel.

Now the scalp component has a higher probability of making it than the swing component, for example your b/e stop will routinely be taken out, except on the very best trades.

You can choose to scalp all, swing all, flatten at any point, it's a judgement call. 

Clearly you win bigger when the swing component comes home. 

That's it, and if this conflicts with anything I said earlier then this takes precedence.


----------



## kid hustlr

Should we be trading the june contract yet?

edit: im thinking march contract today then after that probly june


----------



## Trembling Hand

Ninja trader is saying June roll day is the 21st but i always just have both up and when pre open vol is greater in the new one thats when I switch.


----------



## kid hustlr

Trembling Hand said:


> Ninja trader is saying June roll day is the 21st but i always just have both up and when pre open vol is greater in the new one thats when I switch.
> 
> View attachment 57290




yeah looks like rolls have been going through the last 2 days but id say at this stage there is still more volume in the marchs. rolls week so annoying not sure how you deal with it once a month TH


----------



## CanOz

I'm thinking a rotational day today in Europe. Fed day, plus three directional days prior to today. Thinking we might bracket here for a bit. Could be the end of the short covering?


----------



## kid hustlr

tempting long @ 88 there Pav, not sure if you took it or not?


----------



## CanOz

looks like a grinding rotational day too....hate it when the order flow is like this, really rough and random...


----------



## CanOz

UK news soon....


----------



## kid hustlr

I got on that long took 15 points wonder if I've got out way too early here. Pav you will murder me when we analyse this later in the week for getting out I think. Market looks pretty well bid now imo


----------



## kid hustlr

kid hustlr said:


> I got on that long took 15 points wonder if I've got out way too early here. Pav you will murder me when we analyse this later in the week for getting out I think. Market looks pretty well bid now imo




lolol got that wrong.

fortune favours those who plan for a range day and then trade to it even though at the time it looked like a really bad sell.


----------



## pavilion103

Hey haven't been on.
Saw the open yesterday. 
Yes would have likely taken that long. 
But remember in these conditions a 15 point move to the initial open against the overall tide isn't a bad move.

It's just the trend days that you don't want to be hasty with your exits.

If I was on the last few days I would be looking for 20 point moves not 40 to the upside.
I'd consider being more aggressive to the downside with the medium trend being down.


----------



## kid hustlr

pavilion103 said:


> Hey haven't been on.
> Saw the open yesterday.
> Yes would have likely taken that long.
> But remember in these conditions a 15 point move to the initial open against the overall tide isn't a bad move.
> 
> It's just the trend days that you don't want to be hasty with your exits.
> 
> If I was on the last few days I would be looking for 20 point moves not 40 to the upside.
> I'd consider being more aggressive to the downside with the medium trend being down.




yeah there were two possible longs last night. the initial one which you probably would have been stopped at then then the re-test which I was lucky enough to get a piece of. in the end I got it right getting out but not sure if it was luck or good trading.

ill be on tonight for the first hour but super tired so unlikely after that. not sure where we go from here. I know you are a permabear at the moment but I'm a little unsure now. Bit of a longer term trend line nearing and truth be told I'm on the fence which way is next.


----------



## pavilion103

haha. I don't care which way the market goes. 
I've traded the long and short sides over recent months. 
Last couple of nights had a bit of a long bias (with caution). 

I will be cautious with overall market direction, but I can't see how it is long after the last 2 nights action. 

Will look at criticial S/R levels, but am more thinking it will break lower soon than not. But who knows.


----------



## kid hustlr

kid hustlr said:


> Should we be trading the june contract yet?
> 
> edit: im thinking march contract today then after that probly june




looks as tho volume is now pretty much 50/50 ill stick with march today i think as all my pretty pictures are already using march numbers


----------



## pavilion103

On tonight.
Looking to short around
6575
6750

And 6500 is the support.


----------



## kid hustlr

maybe instead of just staring there looking at it i should just take it.

EDIT: I feel sick.


----------



## lesm

kid hustlr said:


> maybe instead of just staring there looking at it i should just take it.
> 
> EDIT: I feel sick.




What can happen if you take the trade?
1. Make some points
2. Lose some points
3. Break even.

Trading should be a positive action, you take it or you don't take it.

If indecisive maybe better to leave it alone and look later with fresh eyes or do something else


----------



## CanOz

lesm said:


> What can happen if you take the trade?
> 1. Make some points
> 2. Lose some points
> 3. Break even.
> 
> Trading should be a positive action, you take it or you don't take it.
> 
> If indecisive maybe better to leave it alone and look later with fresh eyes or do something else




Hey Lesm, really good to see you around again, what ya been up to for the last 4 years or so?


----------



## pavilion103

2 contracts at 6642 I think.

1st one closed at  6607. Wanted to hold longer but bed time.
35 locked in

Currently broken below the 6600 support
Open profit 75 points.


----------



## pavilion103

Need to maybe trade 3 in future only for ones on the open in high probability areas.

Would love to exit one if it falls another 30 then hold one overnight.

If I had to go to bed if wait 15 mins now and see if it breaks lower if not close.


Trading 2 though. 
Next 30 minutes determines if I hold.


----------



## CanOz

pavilion103 said:


> Need to maybe trade 3 in future only for ones on the open in high probability areas.
> 
> Would love to exit one if it falls another 30 then hold one overnight.
> 
> If I had to go to bed if wait 15 mins now and see if it breaks lower if not close.
> 
> 
> Trading 2 though.
> Next 30 minutes determines if I hold.




I just got stopped out of my last one at 6499...


----------



## pavilion103

Holding mine. 
Could take the 40 points but holding has netted me more and I like the short in this spot.
Already 35 in the bank tonight.

Will wake up and check.
Don't mind at all if I give it back but will monitor my holding v exiting early stats to determine what is best overall.
Only holding because of the spot it's in. Not my usual plan on a day.


----------



## pavilion103

Post deleted .

Night all


----------



## pavilion103

Last minute change of mind.
Stop to 6517.
If this gets taken no reason why it can't go back to my stop.

Guaranteed 25 points on second trade.

60 points locked in for the night.


----------



## CanOz

pavilion103 said:


> Last minute change of mind.
> Stop to 6517.
> If this gets taken no reason why it can't go back to my stop.
> 
> Guaranteed 25 points on second trade.
> 
> 60 points locked in for the night.




Thanks why they call it "day trading"....

Nothing wrong with taking a profit and having a good night sleep...:sleeping:


----------



## kid hustlr

Didn't realise you were a swinger CanOz. Do you always trade 4 contracts?


----------



## kid hustlr

A little point of interest and why it can be beneficial to keep stats/notes on each trade.

I've had a look at the FTSE off and on for the last 6 months or so I'd say, I've taken the odd trade here and there and have been smack bang on break even and never really committed to it. Start of March I made a commitment to myself to really make a go at it and put in the hours and treat is as a job. Working with Pav lately has been very beneficial for me.

Since then (start of March) I've taken 7 trades. (irrelevant)

My net result is + 8 ticks. (irrelevant)

6 of my 7 trades have been longs. (relevant considering we have been in a big down trend)

3 of my 7 trades have been modified  (relevant because although there is a level of discretion allowed I shouldn't be modifying that many trades)

Just thought the last couple of stats were interesting. Still excited as all heck to trade the FTSE moving forward.


----------



## pavilion103

60 points up in the end.

Didn't break lower.

Consolidation now.

Will only be one one day again next week then everyday from then on.

CanOz I like your 4 contract idea. Thinking in a couple of months of going to 3 (for good setups) but holding for similar moves that I'm making now. If that works, towards the end of the year I'll go to 4 where I will probably stay for a long time. That's my goal.


----------



## CanOz

kid hustlr said:


> Didn't realise you were a swinger CanOz. Do you always trade 4 contracts?




Yup, always on the FTSE. I'm down to 2 on the DAX lately. I don't take many FTSE trades as i only have a chart open for it, no Depth.


----------



## kid hustlr

CanOz said:


> Yup, always on the FTSE. I'm down to 2 on the DAX lately. I don't take many FTSE trades as i only have a chart open for it, no Depth.




well looks like you cleaned up matey so that's good to see.

from memory I thought u said u had given up the intra day stuff, do you mind if I asked what changed?

if you don't want to answer or cant be assed then no problem


----------



## CanOz

kid hustlr said:


> well looks like you cleaned up matey so that's good to see.
> 
> from memory I thought u said u had given up the intra day stuff, do you mind if I asked what changed?
> 
> if you don't want to answer or cant be assed then no problem




I don't know exactly, perhaps the fact that I'm going back to work...just sort of took the pressure off i think. Even though i was well capitalized, i subconsciously felt that i had to make an income from the market and that affected my thinking. That said my FTSE trading isn't much to write about, I've hardly taken many trades at this month at all.


----------



## kid hustlr

CanOz said:


> I don't know exactly, perhaps the fact that I'm going back to work...just sort of took the pressure off i think. Even though i was well capitalized, i subconsciously felt that i had to make an income from the market and that affected my thinking. That said my FTSE trading isn't much to write about, I've hardly taken many trades at this month at all.




ta mate.

I think u should keep at it, clearly know your stuff.

edit: spelling


----------



## CanOz

kid hustlr said:


> ta mate.
> 
> I think u should keep at it, clearly know your stuff.
> 
> edit: spelling




Well it looks like another three to four years of my prior career soon. Then after that we'll move back to Australia. If i can't get a job then i'll try out at propex once i get my visa worked out. 

By that time you'll be swinging huge size on the bills!


----------



## kid hustlr

CanOz said:


> Well it looks like another three to four years of my prior career soon. Then after that we'll move back to Australia. If i can't get a job then i'll try out at propex once i get my visa worked out.
> 
> By that time you'll be swinging huge size on the bills!




haha cant see myself ever touching the bills, much prefer the back end where theres a little more life and far more idiots trying to take money off of each other.

interesting point you make about working and feeling more confident trading, that makes 100% complete sense to me, if you have that steady income coming in you really do have that safety net to trade as you see it and not be concerned about the $$


----------



## CanOz

We should be rolling today, so I will post the volume after Pre open....


----------



## CanOz

yup. 06-14


----------



## lesm

CanOz said:


> Hey Lesm, really good to see you around again, what ya been up to for the last 4 years or so?




Hi Can,

It has been quite some time since, I have been on here.

Been lurking for a little while to see who was still around and how the forum had progressed. Still a few of the names I recognise are still here.

I have been extremely busy work wise. Was made an offer I couldn't refuse to join a start-up company, but have now gone back to consulting. Starting to get some time back to focus more on trading again.

Noticed that you are still in China. Looks like your trading has progressed quite bit over the last few years.

I have been upgrading Amibroker and NinjaTrader to get everything set up again, then back into it.

Got knocked around a little bit during the GFC, trading spot and the DAX, but that happens. Nothing devastating, just gave the market some of its money back at times. 

Will be back trading the DAX and spot, a little bit older and wiser from experience.


----------



## CanOz

lesm said:


> Hi Can,
> 
> It has been quite some time since, I have been on here.
> 
> Been lurking for a little while to see who was still around and how the forum had progressed. Still a few of the names I recognise are still here.
> 
> I have been extremely busy work wise. Was made an offer I couldn't refuse to join a start-up company, but have now gone back to consulting. Starting to get some time back to focus more on trading again.
> 
> Noticed that you are still in China. Looks like your trading has progressed quite bit over the last few years.
> 
> I have been upgrading Amibroker and NinjaTrader to get everything set up again, then back into it.
> 
> Got knocked around a little bit during the GFC, trading spot and the DAX, but that happens. Nothing devastating, just gave the market some of its money back at times.
> 
> Will be back trading the DAX and spot, a little bit older and wiser from experience.




Lesm, we've got to catch up sometime...seriously, I have so much to catch up with you...

Let's do it soon! Great to see ya mate!


----------



## pavilion103

A couple of days away and there has been no discussion!

I'm feeling fairly average tonight so I might not go to my class. If I don't I'll stay home and trade. Interesting few days ahead. I'm thinking of attempting to get on the next few nights as it could be a critical time and it shouldn't be too difficult to clear the schedule.

People must get sick of me saying I'm looking for shorts but I will be again. If I get the right setup.


----------



## CanOz

Hey yeah, i'm a little bearish as well with my Fear Indicator blushing a bit and the daily having failed to hold above the continuous VWAP...


----------



## CanOz

Haven't seen this happen for a while on the DAX...

[video=youtube_share;do_QryxGsMM]http://youtu.be/do_QryxGsMM[/video]


----------



## ThingyMajiggy

It used to do that a lot when I used to trade it regularly. 

What is that a sign of though? Strength or weakness, could be arguments for both, the fact that someone just smashed through it without thinking and took out the whole lot, or the fact that someone was wanting to REALLY sell that much up there and didn't pull it, is it good because someone big is buying, or bad because someone big was selling?


----------



## CanOz

ThingyMajiggy said:


> It used to do that a lot when I used to trade it regularly.
> 
> What is that a sign of though? Strength or weakness, could be arguments for both, the fact that someone just smashed through it without thinking and took out the whole lot, or the fact that someone was wanting to REALLY sell that much up there and didn't pull it, is it good because someone big is buying, or bad because someone big was selling?




I have no idea really, it boggles the mind to think of the possibilities. For whatever reason that lot is like a magnet...

Maybe TH or SKC can speculate what the heck it all means


----------



## skc

CanOz said:


> I have no idea really, it boggles the mind to think of the possibilities. For whatever reason that lot is like a magnet...
> 
> Maybe TH or SKC can speculate what the heck it all means




May be someone just needed to go flat aginst the hedge and it wasn't really a directional play.

May be someone was just playing DOM game by putting in a large offer and actually scalping a few levels below that. And they got caught with the sweep (although the sweep wasn't actually that quick). 

BTW I've never traded DAX. Is 175 lots really that big? I know it is much larger than the volume at other levels but it really is just 2-3 minutes of volume by the looks.

I agree though... when the chart looks like a breakout and there's a large lot keeping a lid on it, every man and their dog would like to give it a kick to see if it is real or not.


----------



## CanOz

skc said:


> May be someone just needed to go flat aginst the hedge and it wasn't really a directional play.
> 
> May be someone was just playing DOM game by putting in a large offer and actually scalping a few levels below that. And they got caught with the sweep (although the sweep wasn't actually that quick).
> 
> BTW I've never traded DAX. Is 175 lots really that big? I know it is much larger than the volume at other levels but it really is just 2-3 minutes of volume by the looks.
> 
> I agree though... when the chart looks like a breakout and there's a large lot keeping a lid on it, every man and their dog would like to *give it a kick to see if it is real or not*.





lol...so true..:hammer:

I usually highlight lots over 100 on the DAX. There are many times now where you'll see the depth just thicken up at several levels, seemingly pushing the market in the opposite direction only to thin up a little later and go in the direction of thickening....

There was an energy trading company in the US that was charged over 'spoofing' and i can't help but wonder if that changed the way other participants behaved in other markets as the timing seemed relevant when these large lots disappeared...


----------



## pavilion103

FTSE unclear.
Lost some on Tuesday.
Made a little yesterday.
Not good conditions for how I trade.
I need a lot of clear support and resistance. 
This range isn't providing that.


----------



## CanOz

Its seems the HHI has rolled where as the HSI is still trading March...I would have thought these two contracts rolled at a similar time....


----------



## Trembling Hand

CanOz said:


> Its seems the HHI has rolled where as the HSI is still trading March...I would have thought these two contracts rolled at a similar time....




Nah May on both.....


----------



## CanOz

So my IB volume is stuffed up then


----------



## Trembling Hand

CanOz said:


> So my IB volume is stuffed up then




Yep


Try hitting "Ctrl" "Alt" "T"


----------



## CanOz

Thanks, but you are showing more volume in April as well


----------



## Trembling Hand

CanOz said:


> Thanks, but you are showing more volume in April as well




Yeah sorry not May We are now on April as of today, yesty was last of March.


----------



## CanOz

Trembling Hand said:


> Yeah sorry not May We are now on April as of today, yesty was last of March.





Ahh ok, phew! Thought i was crazy


----------



## pavilion103

Rather in eventful week for me. Was on weird hours so didn't post I here, plus nothing to report.

Finished down around 25 points.

Told myself at the start if the week to take maybe 2-3 selective good trades with this unclear range at the moment. Psychologically I couldn't do this. I overtraded and was a little arrogant with my recent success.

A small price to pay. Some good lessons learnt. Could have blown a lot this week. Overall content. If this is my worst week I'm fairly happy.


I look forward to seeing how this moves out of the consolidation in coming weeks. A push down could signal a decent move. A push back to the highs will also provide some good setups.


----------



## CanOz

Here's one for all you price action traders...

I took a fair reaming yesterday trying to fade the DAX...

...even though this large consolidation, a symmetrical triangle in classical technical analysis terms, had formed and the target was 9573 or so from a measured move calculation.

I was down about 40+ points and called it a day as i had a really good week and didn't want to blow it...As well i was going out to dinner and pool.

So, as an experiment I placed a sell limit order on my sim account near the target for four contracts...then went out for the evening...

Here is the result...

Coincidence, self fulfilling? I don't know but i find it interesting.


----------



## Newt

Interesting to hear how people have found the week.  Friday was my first live trading day in futures (FTSE), but realised fairly quickly the usual reversals over a decent price range weren't going to happen.  Persisted with some very conservative breakouts late just to come to grips with IB's safety warnings etc in a real environment.  

On the good side, was pleased price reversed back down around opening levels after a few hours as I felt it might, on the bad, annoyed I didn't stay out during consolidations.  I wouldn't have been game to put on a decent stop loss and sit out the gradual downward move anyway.  Doesn't fit with the very limited number of plays with conservative expectations I plan to follow for coming months.

After being up a few points at one stage, I'm not sure if I should be proud or embarrassed my very first day eventually ended in profit for the grand sum of 1 GBP  

Its amazing just how much more attention you pay to slippage, commissions and everything for that matter when its real money.....


----------



## Newt

I leave the DAX up while trading the FTSE, purely because my education in recent months has been on the DAX.  I had planned to trade the DAX until almost dying of heart failure at the intraday margins IB expects.

Question - what other indicies, news, or even stocks do FTSE day-traders like to have open while at work?


----------



## pavilion103

FTSE opens 1 hour earlier tonight with UK D/L savings. 
Next week it opens another hour earlier with AUS D/L savings.


----------



## pavilion103

Short 95.
Heading out


----------



## Lone Wolf

Newt said:


> After being up a few points at one stage, I'm not sure if I should be proud or embarrassed my very first day eventually ended in profit for the grand sum of 1 GBP
> 
> Its amazing just how much more attention you pay to slippage, commissions and everything for that matter when its real money.....




Hi Newt,

Congrats on the start of your winning streak.  What's your style based on? Price action, VSA, reading the DOM...?

If you haven't already, I suggest setting up a paper account with IB and testing everything on that. I've been caught a couple times with technical mistakes that I'm glad I found on demo. Such as the close position button not actually closing out my position immediately like it does with ninjatrader.


----------



## Lone Wolf

pavilion103 said:


> FTSE opens 1 hour earlier tonight with UK D/L savings.
> Next week it opens another hour earlier with AUS D/L savings.




Boo. I missed the open thanks to this. Glad I'm in QLD, it'll already be a struggle to get home by 5:00pm each day.


----------



## Newt

Lone Wolf said:


> Boo. I missed the open thanks to this. Glad I'm in QLD, it'll already be a struggle to get home by 5:00pm each day.




Yeah, what a PITA.  There's often a lot of action from 8am UK time and getting home at 5 is a challenge for me too


----------



## Newt

Lone Wolf said:


> Hi Newt,
> 
> Congrats on the start of your winning streak.  What's your style based on? Price action, VSA, reading the DOM...?
> 
> If you haven't already, I suggest setting up a paper account with IB and testing everything on that. I've been caught a couple times with technical mistakes that I'm glad I found on demo. Such as the close position button not actually closing out my position immediately like it does with ninjatrader.




Thanks LW.  I know what you mean about TWS.  I was a bit surprised at the extra steps closing out too.  I've been on the paper a/c for a while with IB.  BracketTrader has made TWS easier to handle for what I try to do.

Honestly, there's no reason for anyone to aspire after what I'm trying to do/learn, but currently that is only 2 plays in the first hour or two for the FTSE:

1.  Reversals
2.  B/O (less frequently, especially in my current conservative state of mind)

Reasonably sure I could have landed 10-20 points today in the first hr after 8am if I hadn't still been at work


----------



## pavilion103

There was an obvious tipping and retest setup.
I'm still in. Stop BE at 95


----------



## Newt

pavilion103 said:


> There was an obvious tipping and retest setup.
> I'm still in. Stop BE at 95




Did you mean shorting down off the resistance around 6588?


----------



## pavilion103

Newt said:


> Did you mean shorting down off the resistance around 6588?




6595 I took


----------



## CanOz

Another nice news trade off the 6E futures...just trade the opposite to the first thrust on a 5 min chart and take advantage of all those trapped traders....

I don't trade it but it seems to be a decent play...


----------



## pavilion103

Took 25 points.

Tempted to let it run because I didn't see any supply but it's broken a pivot high.

Not looking for huge ranges in this consolidation.

Happy to take it even though I think it could push lower.


----------



## pavilion103

Dammit went to take a long at 73. Didn't fill. Looks like it's taking off!


----------



## pavilion103

My 40 point drawdown is gone.
Back to an equity high.

Because I was going out tonight I didn't take 2 contracts. 50 would have been handy.

Good luck trading everyone. I'm off to bed.


----------



## pavilion103

Yesterday's setup. 

Will look for one tonight around the similar spot.


----------



## pavilion103

Aggressive short @68 near open


----------



## CanOz

Nice trade, i got two cracks at the dax and both times got the first lots off then stopped at BE. The FTSE seems weaker than the dax and i'm looking at the gap to fill then see what longs feel like....


----------



## VSntchr

pavilion103 said:


> Aggressive short @68 near open




Hope you guys don't mind an outsider popping in to ask some silly questions..

Pav I notice that your trades (particularly when you call your entries) do not correlate with my FTSE100 index quote - why is this? Is this something specific to futures, or is it that you are trading a different underlying instrument than the FTSE100?

Also, when charts from IB are posted, what do the yellow bars indicate?

Cheers


----------



## payday

VSntchr said:


> Hope you guys don't mind an outsider popping in to ask some silly questions..
> 
> Pav I notice that your trades (particularly when you call your entries) do not correlate with my FTSE100 index quote - why is this? Is this something specific to futures, or is it that you are trading a different underlying instrument than the FTSE100?
> 
> Also, when charts from IB are posted, what do the yellow bars indicate?
> 
> Cheers




I'm not Pav but from what I know, futures quotes for the indices will always be different to the cash quote - don't ask me why. The yellow bars are when the open and close are the same price


----------



## CanOz

Index and the futures contracts, while very correlated seldom trade at the same level...The index isn't actually being traded, just averaged/calculated based on the price of the constituents...the futures are being used for the hedging so lots of big traders moving the market around...

Thats my view anyway, I'm sure SKC or TH could give you a more technical reason...


----------



## VSntchr

Cool, thanks guys.

I may not post here often but I do watch the thread with interest while I listen to podcasts and webinars at night time.


----------



## pavilion103

Out 64


----------



## Trembling Hand

CanOz said:


> Index and the futures contracts, while very correlated seldom trade at the same level...The index isn't actually being traded, just averaged/calculated based on the price of the constituents...the futures are being used for the hedging so lots of big traders moving the market around...
> 
> Thats my view anyway, I'm sure SKC or TH could give you a more technical reason...




Its only ever the same at the moment of expiry. Due mostly to Dividends and other stuff... 



> The index futures price must equal the underlying index value only at expiration. At any other time, the futures contract has a fair value relative to the index, which reflects the expected dividends forgone (a deduction from the index value) and the financing cost for the difference between the initial margin and the principal amount of the contract (an addition) between the trade date and expiration. When interest rates are low, the dividend adjustment outweighs the financing cost, so fair value for index futures is typically lower than the index value.




http://www.investopedia.com/articles/active-trading/070113/using-index-futures-predict-future.asp


----------



## barney

Trembling Hand said:


> Its only ever the same at the moment of expiry. Due mostly to Dividends and other stuff...





TH,   In your experience, can an edge be gained by trading against (scaling into a position perhaps?) against a wider than "normal" deviation as it gets *very* close to expiry ... or is that being a bit unrealistic?


----------



## skc

barney said:


> TH,   In your experience, can an edge be gained by trading against (scaling into a position perhaps?) against a wider than "normal" deviation as it gets *very* close to expiry ... or is that being a bit unrealistic?




There are instos who arb the futures vs cash. However, since you can't actually trade the cash index, you need to buy/sell the underlying constituents. So to do such a strategy you will need co-located HFT bots executing basket orders at low latencies with low commission. It's not a strategy that can be used by retails.


----------



## barney

skc said:


> There are instos who arb the futures vs cash. However, since you can't actually trade the cash index, you need to buy/sell the underlying constituents. So to do such a strategy you will need co-located HFT bots executing basket orders at low latencies with low commission. It's not a strategy that can be used by retails.





Thanks for the explanation SKC,

I guess from a retailers point of view, trading Futures successfully is being able to recognise when a deviation from the present "real value" has been reached (based on a given time frame), and then trading that "out of sync" position in the right direction?     ..... 

Simple !!


----------



## Trembling Hand

barney said:


> Thanks for the explanation SKC,
> 
> I guess from a retailers point of view, trading Futures successfully is being able to recognise when a deviation from the present "real value" has been reached (based on a given time frame), and then trading that "out of sync" position in the right direction?     .....
> 
> Simple !!




Not always. The futures will drag the Index along most of the time. So if the futures move somewhere its more than likely that equities will follow the futs rather than the futs roll back towards the equities .

Remember us futures traders are smarter than the silly slow old equities boys. :


----------



## kid hustlr

lol.

also CanoZ I liked your explanation about the futures/index relation but you said something in there about hedging. forget that imo best to assume everyone is a punter at all times.

---

As an aside I can't stress how good this guy's video and website are. Highly recommend for anyone even thinking about the futures game.

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=EYMIPmgRb_M


----------



## skc

Trembling Hand said:


> Not always. The futures will drag the Index along most of the time. So if the futures move somewhere its more than likely that equities will follow the futs rather than the futs roll back towards the equities .




Sometimes you get a tiny edge by say buying equity on a futures spike. My guess is it happens when there's a localised overhang in a stock's market depth. But the edge is tiny... probably just let you get to a breakeven position quickly so you can pray for a runner without any risk.



Trembling Hand said:


> Remember us futures traders are smarter than the silly slow old equities boys. :




Highly debatable that any of us can be described as "smart".


----------



## CanOz

kid hustlr said:


> lol.
> 
> also CanoZ I liked your explanation about the futures/index relation but you said something in there about hedging. forget that imo best to assume everyone is a punter at all times.
> 
> ---
> 
> As an aside I can't stress how good this guy's video and website are. Highly recommend for anyone even thinking about the futures game.
> 
> http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=EYMIPmgRb_M




Yeah he is good. 

I'm not affiliated with Jigsaw Trading but they are testing a new trade room with an Aussie expat bund trader. ITs pretty good and i reckon if you subscribed to the DOM tools Pete might let ya into the trade room for free for a week or so while they test it...Once they go live i don't think it'll be that expensive anyway.


----------



## barney

Trembling Hand said:


> Remember us futures traders are smarter than the silly slow old equities boys. :








.........


----------



## artist

Trembling Hand said:


> Not always. The futures will drag the Index along most of the time. So if the futures move somewhere its more than likely that equities will follow the futs rather than the futs roll back towards the equities .





ABSTRACT

This paper empirically examines the intraday price relationship between S&P 500 futures and the S&P 500 index using minute-to-minute data. Three-stage least-squares regression is used to estimate lead and lag relationships with estimates for expiration days of the S&P 500 futures compared with estimates for days prior to expiration. The results suggest that futures price movements consistently lead index movements by twenty to forty-five minutes while movements in the index rarely affect futures beyond one minute.    

(From "The Temporal Price Relationship between S&P 500 Futures and the S&P 500 Index" - http://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1111/j.1540-6261.1987.tb04368.x/abstract ) (Subscription / purchase is needed to access the full paper.)


----------



## Trembling Hand

Trembling Hand said:


> Not always. The futures will drag the Index along most of the time. So if the futures move somewhere its more than likely that equities will follow the futs rather than the futs roll back towards the equities .
> 
> Remember us futures traders are smarter than the silly slow old equities boys. :




Who will win this battle?




Index in Blue futs are the candles.


----------



## CanOz

The index won, futures popped...


----------



## Trembling Hand

CanOz said:


> The index won, futures popped...




How funny is that? State something as a certainty and only minutes later you have ya ar$e handed to you.


----------



## kid hustlr

i wonder how much pain the arb bots/arb firms can handle. like if the spread continues to widen do they have a puke point or is it just a case of do more?


----------



## Trembling Hand

kid hustlr said:


> i wonder how much pain the arb bots/arb firms can handle. like if the spread continues to widen do they have a puke point or is it just a case of do more?




No because it will come back at some point. When the contract expires it will be the same.


----------



## kid hustlr

Trembling Hand said:


> No because it will come back at some point. When the contract expires it will be the same.




yeah i hear you on that but surely theres some kind of holding/margin cost involved which in theory if it got beyond a certain point they would have to liquidate?


----------



## Trembling Hand

kid hustlr said:


> yeah i hear you on that but surely theres some kind of holding/margin cost involved which in theory if it got beyond a certain point they would have to liquidate?




Yeah don't know. I don't think so though. I mean how out of whack could it get? 20 points would be a lot, 50 extreme. Not that much pain.


----------



## skc

kid hustlr said:


> yeah i hear you on that but surely theres some kind of holding/margin cost involved which in theory if it got beyond a certain point they would have to liquidate?




There's no market risk in arbing the index/futures. There's only execution risk. If it diverge further you'd put more on, as long as you have enough margin. 

The holding cost is relevant but only before you open the trade. After you've put on the spread, you'd always be better waiting for it to converge. Any holding cost by that time is sunk.

It would take a really stupid insto to use up all their margin and be forced to close their position when the divergence is the greatest... so it's probably happened a few times


----------



## kid hustlr

skc said:


> There's no market risk in arbing the index/futures. There's only execution risk. If it diverge further you'd put more on,* as long as you have enough margin. *
> 
> The holding cost is relevant but only before you open the trade. After you've put on the spread, you'd always be better waiting for it to converge. Any holding cost by that time is sunk.
> 
> It would take a really stupid insto to use up all their margin and be forced to close their position when the divergence is the greatest... so it's probably happened a few times




yeah bolded is what I was getting at. hard conversation for the arb desk to say 'ignore the margin call for now we'll have the cash in 3 months'


----------



## skyQuake

kid hustlr said:


> yeah bolded is what I was getting at. hard conversation for the arb desk to say 'ignore the margin call for now we'll have the cash in 3 months'




Thats what the line of credit is for 

But given how many arb funds are out there, if it gets too out of whack, others will come in and 'save' you


----------



## pavilion103

Long 92, original stop 83.
Now BE


----------



## pavilion103

Close 6612


----------



## Newt

Another nice one Pav.  Congrats.


----------



## pavilion103

I have been flat out and intend to post charts up again once I have time. 
I'll post up last night's one if I can because it was a really solid setup. 

I've had to adjust my trading in this market and look at picking off 15-25 point winners. 
Once a trend resumes I will look to take 2 contracts again, exit one at around 20-30 points and hold the other for 40 or so or overnight if analysis suggests I should do so. 

I've had to become more selective in this current market, so main focus is to take fewer good trades and exit them sooner. Not too exciting, but 20 points here and there is handy, especially if losses are small. 

I have 3 weeks off from my classes coming up in 2 weeks which will leave me the whole night of Monday, Tuesday and Thursdays. 4:30pm open time next week allows me to catch the all important open anyway now all the way until October. 
So while I'm on holidays I will be looking to get back on here and post more stuff in real time like before. 
Hopefully others are on at the same time and we can share setups/thoughts. 

The level of interest will determine how much I post (in real time).

- - - Updated - - -

Further to that, I'm curious about the current market (FTSE). 

It is very slowly pushing up and the next week or so could tell whether it breaks down out of this "wedge" or if it continues to push up gently. 

IF it does break down sharply, then I will look to hammer it hard again with multiple contracts. 

Not too exciting right now!


----------



## CanOz

pavilion103 said:


> The level of interest will determine how much I post (in real time).




Really? So when everyone else is posting and you're too busy to post should we stop posting?


----------



## pavilion103

CanOz said:


> Really? So when everyone else is posting and you're too busy to post should we stop posting?




Post however much or little as you choose Can. You don't need my permission!

Clearly I am offering my real time analysis and thoughts. If people are interested then I'll engage in that activity because I enjoy sharing thoughts. But if being on live isn't of interest to people I'll just post my charts of trades after they've occurred like always.

Not sure what the issue is...


----------



## CanOz

pavilion103 said:


> Not sure what the issue is...




No issue, i think there is plenty of interest. Personally i think live calls are of little use on a forum, perhaps in a live chat i can see it. 

You should start a chat room...


----------



## pavilion103

CanOz said:


> No issue, i think there is plenty of interest. Personally i think live calls are of little use on a forum, perhaps in a live chat i can see it.  You should start a chat room...




Yeh that's a good call. 
I wonder if anyone would be keen on the chat idea.
Can it be done over Skype (multiple people in a convo)?

I'm on there with kid most nights for the first hour or so.


----------



## CanOz

pavilion103 said:


> Yeh that's a good call.
> I wonder if anyone would be keen on the chat idea.
> Can it be done over Skype (multiple people in a convo)?
> 
> I'm on there with kid most nights for the first hour or so.




Yeah, just setup a skype group. We can PM you our skype details and then you can add us...

I'm on skype almost 24/6 so if you prefer i can setup the group, just PM me your details...


----------



## pavilion103

CanOz said:


> Yeah, just setup a skype group. We can PM you our skype details and then you can add us...
> 
> I'm on skype almost 24/6 so if you prefer i can setup the group, just PM me your details...




Yes I don't really know how to set it all up. That would be much appreciated. 
Those who are keen PM CanOz and we can look to kick this off. 

Assuming we will get a range of people including those who are keen to just sit back a bit and learn to start off with, which is cool. 

We can kick this off and see how it goes. I won't be on all the time but usually the first hour or two I will have Skype up while I'm on.


----------



## CanOz

Ok, maybe for a few days i'll do a market prep for the FTSE, just some bigger picture down to the lower time frame...


----------



## CanOz

Here are the 5m, 60m and daily charts..


----------



## CanOz

Look out beeeelooooowww

*If* we get some downward momentum we could get a nasty retreat...


----------



## CanOz

Really messy ole day again, Eur numbers out in an hours, think i'll get some exercise until then...


----------



## pavilion103

8 points down in 2 trades.
Now long at 13.5


----------



## pavilion103

My night

3 trades for negative 10 points total. 
Then these 2. 
1 still open. 

Nothing exciting. Feel like I'm on a treadmill. A bit of effort, not going far.


----------



## pavilion103

Sorry last long actually 6604, my mistake.


----------



## pavilion103

Out BE. 

Good night.


----------



## Newt

I'm really quite lost being unable to get online until a couple of hours after open.   I'll have to go back to school and figure out what my plan is for the next 6 months.  In the meantime soaking up all the discussion and charts I can.


----------



## CanOz

Thats been a couple of tough days, choppy action, lots of short stop runs...everyone waiting for NFP.


----------



## Lone Wolf

Newt said:


> I'm really quite lost being unable to get online until a couple of hours after open.   I'll have to go back to school and figure out what my plan is for the next 6 months.  In the meantime soaking up all the discussion and charts I can.




The best move of tonight started about two hours after the open. So it's not all bad, you can still get some nice moves later in the day. But yeah, time of day makes a big difference. There does seem to be a point in the day where there's no real push from anyone and we just slowly grind along.

We're getting some news related volume right now. I'm not trading it though.


----------



## Newt

I just worry that without the initial 2 hrs typical volatility pushing, any move is more likely to get caught in chop.  No use jumping to conclusions.  Just have to observe, learn, then figure out a new plan.

What's NFP Canoz?


----------



## CanOz

Newt said:


> I just worry that without the initial 2 hrs typical volatility pushing, any move is more likely to get caught in chop.  No use jumping to conclusions.  Just have to observe, learn, then figure out a new plan.
> 
> What's NFP Canoz?




I reckon if you only traded the first two or three hours you'd be far better off for it...There is a little after lunch move sometimes but then the market changes once the US opens anyway...

NFP = Non Farm Payrolls - the single biggest news event on the US economic calendar...fun fun fun...i'll miss it tomorrow night too...


----------



## pavilion103

First 1-2 hour setups is where I make most of my money. Especially in trending conditions.


----------



## pavilion103

Anyone have any thoughts on NFP?

I'm not hot on fundamentals but interested to see if anyone has any opinions.


----------



## skc

pavilion103 said:


> Anyone have any thoughts on NFP?
> 
> I'm not hot on fundamentals but interested to see if anyone has any opinions.




Bloomberg compiles consensus estiamte for most major data releases.

http://www.bloomberg.com/markets/economic-calendar/

If the print is substantially different to consensus the market will move.

However, without superfast computers and low latency feeds, trading NFP over the short term is not advisable.


----------



## Trembling Hand

pavilion103 said:


> Anyone have any thoughts on NFP?
> 
> I'm not hot on fundamentals but interested to see if anyone has any opinions.




Its got nothing to do with fundamentals as a trader. Its got everything to do with expectations.


----------



## pavilion103

Trembling Hand said:


> Its got nothing to do with fundamentals as a trader. Its got everything to do with expectations.




Yeh I get that. What are the expectations this time prior to the announcent?


----------



## Trembling Hand

pavilion103 said:


> Yeh I get that. What are the expectations this time prior to the announcent?




Well I can tell you but then thats just my opinion of what I think the markets opinion is! 

But I think the "market" is expecting a good number and have it well and truly priced in.


----------



## CanOz

Trembling Hand said:


> Well I can tell you but then thats just my opinion of what I think the markets opinion is!
> 
> But I think the "market" is expecting a good number and have it well and truly priced in.




Is a 'good' number meaning a number that supports growth in employment and does not support a slowing of the taper?


----------



## pavilion103

Got the notice from IB. 

The new data costs which include the FTSE futures is $90 US per month. 
Currently 2 EURO!!!

Starts from Monday. Annoying! I guess I will just have to keep making more money


----------



## Lone Wolf

pavilion103 said:


> Got the notice from IB.
> 
> The new data costs which include the FTSE futures is $90 US per month.
> Currently 2 EURO!!!
> 
> Starts from Monday. Annoying! I guess I will just have to keep making more money




Yeah I saw that too. Pretty steep increase for those who only want level 1 data. Not so bad if you were already paying for level II. 

As a matter of principle, if I'm going to pay over $1000 a year for FTSE data I'd like to have the real tick data rather than IB's condensed version. Oh well, I have an AMP futures account now, I haven't heard anything from them about an additional cost yet so I guess I'll just go with AMP for now.


----------



## CanOz

pavilion103 said:


> Got the notice from IB.
> 
> The new data costs which include the FTSE futures is $90 US per month.
> Currently 2 EURO!!!
> 
> Starts from Monday. Annoying! _I guess I will just have to keep making more money_




OR you could look for a cheaper broker with, as LW says, BETTER data...

AMP Clearing.


----------



## kid hustlr

CanOz what would be the costs to trade the FTSE with AMP?

I always figured IB was the cheapest at everything...


----------



## CanOz

kid hustlr said:


> CanOz what would be the costs to trade the FTSE with AMP?
> 
> I always figured IB was the cheapest at everything...




Let me dig out my statement when i get some time and tell you, the data costs are rolled in as well...its about 3 USD per RT from memory...


----------



## CanOz

The total, including data is 4.08 USD per round turn....


----------



## payday

IB is no longer the cheapest at everything. I have been with IB for about 6 years now and they were initially cheaper but since then others have taken up that mantle. AMP is one as well as Mirus futures. I am seriously tempted to change over to Mirus as they seem to have a pretty good track record. Both AMP and Mirus offer lower intraday and overnight margins compared with IB as well. Also they both offer CQG data feeds which with Ninja trader you can get the static DOM which is a HUGE bonus compared to IB's dynamic DOM if you are trading intraday. Just some things to keep in mind.


----------



## Newt

I must confess I had started an IB account after realising I'd have to pay $50/month to rent/lease the full version of NT - which is pretty essential if you want to place automatic stops and profit targets.  With IB jacking up their data costs so much I may well go back to AMP for Futues, but keep the IB a/c open for stocks - which seemed a good enough reason to try out TWS etc in the first place - and its "free".  

The market replay features in NT really are fantastic for a newbie learning the ropes.  Err - learning how to fall into bear-pits


----------



## Lone Wolf

Not a bad play by IB. If they gave people decent notice then most would probably put a lot of thought into it and end up finding cheaper/better options. By waiting until Friday to tell us that fees go up on Monday, people who have no alternative in place will probably sign up for the first month without thinking too much. They'll tell themselves that they intend to look for an alternative later, but once people have signed up to one option they tend to lose their motivation to seek another.

That's today's conspiracy theory anyway. :


----------



## pavilion103

Will certainly sign up for first month while exploring options.

Annoying.


----------



## kid hustlr

CanOz said:


> Let me dig out my statement when i get some time and tell you, the data costs are rolled in as well...its about 3 USD per RT from memory...






CanOz said:


> The total, including data is 4.08 USD per round turn....




that's still quite expensive if you ask me. i guess you just need to weight up the options.

Can't recall off the top of my head what IB charges per round turn ( i dont trade with them) but I feel like if you were decently active IB is probably still the cheaper option.

Just comes down to whether you can handle the way they handle the data I guess.

As I said each situation is different. Shame the charges have increased though but like everything in this game if you size up 90 bucks a month is just irrelevant.


----------



## Lone Wolf

kid hustlr said:


> that's still quite expensive if you ask me. i guess you just need to weight up the options.
> 
> Can't recall off the top of my head what IB charges per round turn ( i dont trade with them) but I feel like if you were decently active IB is probably still the cheaper option.
> 
> Just comes down to whether you can handle the way they handle the data I guess.
> 
> As I said each situation is different. Shame the charges have increased though but like everything in this game if you size up 90 bucks a month is just irrelevant.




It's hard to compare the two since the AMP commission rate includes data and Canoz may have different data fees to others. But ignoring that...

IB's flat rate is 5.64 USD per round turn (1.7GBP per trade), not including data. So that's 1.56 USD more than AMP.

Do two round trips a night and at the end of the month you'll have paid an extra 60 USD. Add the data cost of 90 USD and you end up paying an extra 150 USD per month to trade with IB.

The question is then, are you getting value for money with IB? I like IB, the client interface is far, far above AMP from what I've seen. Talking in general, IB wins hands down IMO. But for the FTSE alone, you could trade with AMP, get better data and in one year the savings will have paid off the purchase of a multibroker NinjaTrader license.

But I agree with your last statement, make so much money that all costs become irrelevant.


----------



## kid hustlr

yeah cheers Lone, I dug up the IB costs on sunday and was a little surprised how expensive they are to trade the FTSE.  

Retail traders really do get murdered.

AMP looks like a clear winner unless the interface is horrid or I'm missing something completely.


----------



## kid hustlr

Anyone have any thoughts on the price action Friday. I think it shows T/H's comments to be true that the market was expecting a really strong number and didn't get it so some guys ran for cover.

More interested in that S&P though so me that seems a ridiculously bearish day?

EDIT: The print wasn't even that bad


----------



## CanOz

kid hustlr said:


> yeah cheers Lone, I dug up the IB costs on sunday and was a little surprised how expensive they are to trade the FTSE.
> 
> Retail traders really do get murdered.
> 
> AMP looks like a clear winner unless the interface is horrid or I'm missing something completely.




Well, a couple points there about IB...they're not just futures, but offer almost every product under the sun for the retail and institutional trader....the cost that I gave you, do not include the platform fee, as I own a multi broker license for ninjatrader. TWS is free with a cost for the data.

In regards to the platforms offered by AMP....it's TT, CQG, Rhithmic, and Ninjatrader....all better than TWS but mainly designed for futures....


----------



## kid hustlr

CanOz said:


> Well, a couple points there about IB...they're not just futures, but offer almost every product under the sun for the retail and institutional trader....the cost that I gave you, do not include the platform fee, as I own a multi broker license for ninjatrader. TWS is free with a cost for the data.
> 
> In regards to the platforms offered by AMP....it's TT, CQG, Rhithmic, and Ninjatrader....all better than TWS but mainly designed for futures....




yeah ok so the total cost of trading with them would be: commission/data fee (built into one) + the platform fee?


----------



## CanOz

kid hustlr said:


> yeah ok so the total cost of trading with them would be: commission/data fee (built into one) + the platform fee?




Yeah, from memory TT is 1 US per RT with AMP...


----------



## pavilion103

I wonder if this is a medium/long term high. 

If we break below here it could be on for a big move down. You wonder if it will come above the 6654 again now.


----------



## pavilion103




----------



## CanOz

I think we'll have the correction, but we usually get a short covering rally at some point (retest), that's usually the best short signal with the least risk...


----------



## Wysiwyg

pavilion103 said:


> If we break below here it could be on for a big move down. You wonder if it will come above the 6654 again now.



Are you willing to disclose if you trade what you see? I mean eyeing of chart technicals and opening/closing positions by judgement.


----------



## pavilion103

Took a long and closed 6590 exit 6607.
17 points.
Heading out now.

If I had time I would have posted. Maybe tomorrow.

Will definitely include any detail for bigger moves.


----------



## pavilion103

Short 6616 with one contract. Stop 6620.5

Tough call here. Do I take profit if I get 20-30 points up it leave it!

I still think a short is on in the medium term but not sure if now is the exact time.


----------



## pavilion103

Out 6593.

23 points. 

Very clear support and resistance at the moment.

Trade 1 = 17 points
Trade 2 = 23 points.

Probably won't be on to take any more. 
I actually took the last one during class on my phone.

Still think a big short will come at some point.


----------



## payday

Some nice trading there Pav. Looks like a possible h&s forming on the 60 minute chart with the neckline around today's lows at the 6580 mark.


----------



## pavilion103

Thanks man. 

I've taken 1 trade since. 6599. Stop to BE. 
If this falls it falls. If not I'm out BE. 
It looks heavy. Hoping I can pull off the break lower. It could be a good move if it happens!


----------



## pavilion103

Stopped out by 2 bloody points!!! You're joking!!

Could have been a huge night!


----------



## pavilion103

2 ticks that was sorry.

Bitterly disappointed. Identified it and wasn't quite aggressive enough. 60 points gone.

What should have been a 100 point night only nets 40% of that potential with 40 points.

Very frustrating!


----------



## CanOz

pavilion103 said:


> 2 ticks that was sorry.
> 
> Bitterly disappointed. Identified it and wasn't quite aggressive enough. 60 points gone.
> 
> What should have been a 100 point night only nets 40% of that potential with 40 points.
> 
> Very frustrating!




It's a different marke when the US opens, anything can happen. I'm stunned that you're disappointed making what you're making given the time you're applying to this, mostly on a mobile platform!


If you can net 40 percent of the available ticks on any given day, that's an outstanding achievement.

Are you sure this is not becoming more about being right than being profitable, or do you want both?


----------



## Newt

I'm with Canoz on this - 40 pts for last night was a great effort.
I was impressed how well you judged resistance for the move down later.  Obviously the 60pts extra would have been nice, but your strategy and probabilies were only just out.  Can understand the disappointment, but that was more great trading Pav.


----------



## pavilion103

CanOz said:


> It's a different marke when the US opens, anything can happen. I'm stunned that you're disappointed making what you're making given the time you're applying to this, mostly on a mobile platform!
> 
> 
> If you can net 40 percent of the available ticks on any given day, that's an outstanding achievement.
> 
> Are you sure this is not becoming more about being right than being profitable, or do you want both?




Some great points Canoz. Always love your input. 

The big frustration in this instance is that I analysed the context perfectly. 
Coming out of a few weeks where the bigger profits weren't on the table, this was a big opportunity and I realised that. To narrowly miss out on it is frustrating. 

Further to that, I didn't take 2 contracts which would have left me in a trade overnight. 
This was part of my strategy and I didn't execute it. 

40 points in a night is satisfying. But I just feel that in this case the opportunity was there, I knew it, but I didn't execute it well enough (maye I was a little unlucky too).


Overall I'm feeling good Can. 
But this was an opportunity that slipped. 
It's ok. Tonight is a new night.


----------



## pavilion103

Newt said:


> I'm with Canoz on this - 40 pts for last night was a great effort.
> I was impressed how well you judged resistance for the move down later.  Obviously the 60pts extra would have been nice, but your strategy and probabilies were only just out.  Can understand the disappointment, but that was more great trading Pav.




Thanks for the encouragement. 

One thing that I am telling myself is this is still about developing the golden goose rather than trying to accumulate golden eggs.

If I keep executing well and then sizing up down the track, these missed opportunities will be good learning experiences that lead to refinement and further greater success down the track. 


On another note. 
Tonight what are people's thoughts?
I will be looking for a short with 2 contracts if I can find a good setup. 
Wouldn't be surprised in the coming week if price pushes down.


----------



## MichaelD

pavilion103 said:


> 2 ticks that was sorry.
> 
> Bitterly disappointed. Identified it and wasn't quite aggressive enough. 60 points gone.
> 
> What should have been a 100 point night only nets 40% of that potential with 40 points.
> 
> Very frustrating!




1. Not the first time this has happened, and won't be the last time. That's trading.

2. 40 points / 40% of the total moves available is perfectly decent and perfectly profitable. (I'm very happy at 50%, deliriously happy if I get anything more).

3. Always think of how much you could have LOST if things didn't go your way, not how much you COULD HAVE MADE if things did go your way.

4. Thinking about the singular "winner that got away" may result in you changing how you trade to your overall detriment.


----------



## CanOz

Swing chart of the two sessions...


----------



## CanOz

pavilion103 said:


> On another note.
> Tonight what are people's thoughts?
> I will be looking for a short with 2 contracts if I can find a good setup.
> Wouldn't be surprised in the coming week if price pushes down.




I am still thinking continuation until we can put in a rotational day and build up some volume for a big short covering rally....


----------



## pavilion103

MichaelD said:


> 1. Not the first time this has happened, and won't be the last time. That's trading.
> 
> 2. 40 points / 40% of the total moves available is perfectly decent and perfectly profitable. (I'm very happy at 50%, deliriously happy if I get anything more).
> 
> 3. Always think of how much you could have LOST if things didn't go your way, not how much you COULD HAVE MADE if things did go your way.
> 
> 4. Thinking about the singular "winner that got away" may result in you changing how you trade to your overall detriment.




Some great points. 

1. Yes. This will happen. It's a reality. 
2. Yes. Could have been minus 20 for the night if things went bad. Plus 40 is good. 
3. When trading one contract the question is always how much am I prepared to give back to risk a larger profit. Trading 2 contracts more often will help. 
4. True. I don't want to change my strategy based on one trade and wreck my whole approach. But I do want to analyse the one trade and analyse it alongside similar trades to identify if, in these high probability spots, it's worth giving the stop more room. I'd suggest the answer is trading 2 contracts, rather than doing that.


----------



## pavilion103

CanOz said:


> Swing chart of the two sessions...




That's interesting. Love that chart. 

Interesting to note that it pulled back to the 6580 area once is broke through support. 
That would have been a fairly clear short for me given the overall context. It would have been exactly what I am looking for to either re-enter or add a position. 

What frustrates me is not being able to trade the entire trading day, or at least the first 75% of it. The earlier market open with D/L saving changed helps give me an extra 2 hours. 

It frustrates me because when I review the chart at the end of the night I see setups that are textbook and that I actually anticipated before I go to bed. If I was on all night, I think I capture very good profit each day. 

If things continue on the current trajectory the possibile option (because I have large savings in hand), would be to take a 3-6 month LWOP from work and see try trading 75% of the day for a short period of time. I wouldn't do it yet, but just something to consider.

- - - Updated - - -

I still feel that the best moves come in the first couple of hours. 

What times of the market do others on here trade?
Just the start?
Total day?
Most of the day?


----------



## CanOz

Yeah, the European markets really need to be traded as two separate sessions in my view, OR you trade the FTSE and then move over to the ES, YM, NQ or the TF instead of trading the proxy for the leading market...

On that pullback, its basically testing the previous session low, which is a great place to define risk...and after that range, reward as well.

I only trade the opening couple of hours on the DAX. If i trade once the US is open its only on sim to have a play, because i'm not familiar enough with it and its just full of arb bots...


----------



## MichaelD

pavilion103 said:


> I don't want to change my strategy based on one trade and wreck my whole approach. But I do want to analyse the one trade and analyse it alongside similar trades to identify if, in these high probability spots, it's worth giving the stop more room. I'd suggest the answer is trading 2 contracts, rather than doing that.




In my experience, altering my stop management along the lines you suggest has always resulted in poorer outcomes. I suggest you explore the 2 contract route. It allows more finessed risk management.



pavilion103 said:


> What times of the market do others on here trade?
> Just the start?
> Total day?
> Most of the day?




Since I use STOP orders I'm essentially exposed 24/7 Mon am -> Sat am. Most (but not all) of the moves happen at Oz and US market opens and closes.

Because I use STOP orders along with SMS alerts, I don't need to screenwatch 24/7 which makes this work for me. I do need, however, to be able to access the market whenever I get an alert fairly promptly.


----------



## pavilion103

Very up and down for me. 
Took 2 contracts short. If I held them I'd be 90 points up right now!!!
I panicked and exited at BE near the open 

Played around a bit. Went 10 points down overall. 

I've traded 2 most of the night in different spots. 
Just exited one a little hastily for 20 points. 

I currently have one in open profit 40 points. 
Up around 45 points overall. 

Locked in a minimum of 30 points profit overall. 

A bit upset I didn't stick to my guns with the open setups, would have absolutely cleaned up. 

Monitoring this last one now.


----------



## CanOz

I was away for a couple of hours today so i didn't trade, what a nice directional day it turned out to be...


----------



## pavilion103

OK trailing very tight now. 
Happy to take what is on the table. 
Locked in 42 points now I think. 

This is a crazy churning market. 
I have not seen price action like this for a while. 
It is making pivot high stop placement to straight forward. 

Will post a chart once I close out.


----------



## pavilion103

CanOz said:


> I was away for a couple of hours today so i didn't trade, what a nice directional day it turned out to be...




Doesn't get much easier than this hey? Get on and ride it. 
Pivot highs present themselves plainly. 
Trail each break lower. 
Rinse and repeat.


----------



## Lone Wolf

pavilion103 said:


> Doesn't get much easier than this hey? Get on and ride it.
> Pivot highs present themselves plainly.
> Trail each break lower.
> Rinse and repeat.






I didn't intend to trade since I was watching the Jigsaw live trading room at the same time, but I had the chart open with one eye on it. Since I was distracted it's hard to say what might have happened, but I think I'd have sat on my hands all night.

I liked the three failed pushes high at the open, but also thought that if I remove my short bias then it's simply in a range. I saw the retest later (second circle), but for some reason I didn't like it at the time. I think I was put off by the the nearby support I thought I saw (around the bar in the blue square).

After that I just didn't see any reason to go short... aside from the fact that price kept going lower. I think I need a trigger that says "The direction is obviously up/down - enter for any reason and manage the exit."

Oh, there was one pullback I saw at time 19:30 on the chart. But after running 20 points already I didn't like the look of that either.


----------



## MichaelD

pavilion103 said:


> I panicked and exited at BE near the open
> 
> Played around a bit. Went 10 points down overall.
> 
> A bit upset I didn't stick to my guns with the open setups, would have absolutely cleaned up.




Why did you panic?



pavilion103 said:


> Doesn't get much easier than this hey? Get on and ride it.
> Pivot highs present themselves plainly.
> Trail each break lower.
> Rinse and repeat.




Enjoy conditions which suit your trading while they last, just don't start to feel invincible lest the market remind you how, erm, "vincible" we all are.

ps for some interesting contrast - I am +35 points for the week, all taken LONG. These choppy conditions do not suit my style at all. I prefer straight down or straight up.


----------



## pavilion103

2 big errors but I won't shoot myself tonight. 

Finished with 59 points = $1,060. 


Original setup

Error 1: Exiting the original position. Would have made 116 points = $2,090


New setup of 2 contracts

Error 2: Exiting the first one at 6627 for no reason except panic. Cost me 26 points. Would have made 85 points for the night = $1,530


But I won't be too critical. Overall a solid night. And good back to back days. 
Could have been anything up to 220 points but walked away with 100. Satisfied with a little tweaking to do.


----------



## pavilion103

For me, the reason I was so keen for the short is 
A) the overall context
B) I saw the open as a test and rejection of the 6660 area which was significant yesterday. 

This gave me enormous confidence to trade 2 contracts tonight.


----------



## pavilion103

MichaelD said:


> Why did you panic?
> 
> 
> 
> Enjoy conditions which suit your trading while they last, just don't start to feel invincible lest the market remind you how, erm, "vincible" we all are.
> 
> ps for some interesting contrast - I am +35 points for the week, all taken LONG. These choppy conditions do not suit my style at all. I prefer straight down or straight up.





1) I panicked simply because I am not used to trading 2 contracts and to have 20 point open risk scared me. If it was 1 contract I wouldn't have battered an eye-lid. But 2 had an impact on me. I'll get more used to it. 

2) Believe me I am working my **** off, analysing charts, working on risk management, practicing all the time. 
Despite the excited and maybe confident tone of my enthusiastic posts I am well and truly aware that I am not bigger than the markets. I am focused. Afterall I did trade a sim for 2 years. I am prepared to do what it takes. My focus is long term. 

Coming out of the recent small range days of the previous weeks I had to adjust my trading to those conditions. I took more 15-20 point wins and looked for higher quality setups. The past 2 days I re-adjusted back to my more aggressive approach. 
I am well aware of making hay while the sun shines and adapting to changing market conditions.


----------



## CanOz

pavilion103 said:


> 1)
> 
> Coming out of the recent small range days of the previous weeks I had to adjust my trading to those conditions. I took more 15-20 point wins and looked for higher quality setups. The past 2 days I re-adjusted back to my more aggressive approach.
> I am well aware of making hay while the sun shines and adapting to changing market conditions.




This is something that's really worth gold. Its not as much to determine the kind of day the market will have (directional as opposed to rotational) as it is to recognize the kind of day the market is having...That way you can trade with it rather than fading and getting run over...I'm getting better but its a WIP...


----------



## MichaelD

pavilion103 said:


> to have 20 point open risk scared me. If it was 1 contract I wouldn't have battered an eye-lid. But 2 had an impact on me. I'll get more used to it.




When you sit back and analyse this, it's extraordinary the effect scaling has on your psychology. I can absolutely relate to this with the sizing struggles I have been through (and continue to go through).

The market hasn't changed. It still plods along. And yet the effect it has on us dramatically changes as you scale up and expose yourself to more risk. Sim/paper trading just can't give you that same gut-wrenching effect as putting your own real money on the line when you don't know the outcome in advance.

(Ahh, my favourite topic - trading psychology and how we tend to self sabotage).


----------



## pavilion103

Obviously going live for the first time poses issues. I was very cautious when I started. Then when I realized I could make 30,40,50 points on some nights risking 6 or 7 or even up to 10 was an easy thing to do.

All of a sudden going to 2 contracts risking 10 becomes risking 20 and it's a large chunk of the 30,40,50 point profit that I'm used to.

Once I start trading 2 more frequently and having nights of 60,80,100 points profit, the. 15-20 point risk won't be as bigger psychological issue.

Some good runs on the board certainly helps I reckon.


----------



## Newt

Reading everyone's posts here tonight reminds of a couple of Al Brooks quotes:

1. Trending days/periods are usually the most lucrative, but often hard to be tempted to enter (never seems like a good time to get on-board)
2.  Trade the number of contracts you don't care about losing (Pav - interesting to hear your thoughts on the psychology of 2 contracts)


It shouldn't matter scaling up, but that's just the way we're built (most of us)


----------



## 5oclock

Newt said:


> Reading everyone's posts here tonight reminds of a couple of Al Brooks quotes:
> 
> 1. Trending days/periods are usually the most lucrative, but often hard to be tempted to enter (never seems like a good time to get on-board)
> 2.  Trade the number of contracts you don't care about losing (Pav - interesting to hear your thoughts on the psychology of 2 contracts)
> 
> 
> It shouldn't matter scaling up, but that's just the way we're built (most of us)




So true Newt !


----------



## pavilion103

Just checked overnight action.

Got the exit right last night


----------



## pavilion103

Before I get my head bitten off let me clarify...... 

I don't mean I got it right in terms of I made the correct decision based on my strategy. 

I mean that point was the low of the day which meant that I captured most of the move's profit on offer.

Even if it had moved another 100 points, I'm happy with how I executed my exit. 


(Just in case anyone wanted to pounce on that comment  lol)


----------



## VSntchr

Some great discussion last night from you futures traders lot 

Well done on the nights pay Pav..


----------



## payday

pavilion103 said:


> 2) Believe me I am working my **** off, analysing charts, working on risk management, practicing all the time.
> Despite the excited and maybe confident tone of my enthusiastic posts I am well and truly aware that I am not bigger than the markets. I am focused. Afterall I did trade a sim for 2 years. I am prepared to do what it takes. My focus is long term.




And this is why I think you will make a decent fist of this trading caper Pav. Keep this in mind at all times. Remain humble. Pretty soon you will begin to be trading much bigger size but the lessons still remain the same.


----------



## pavilion103

The last two nights the context was perfect for decent 60+ point moves . I was aggressive because of this.

Tonight i believe is a night to be more cautious. I won't be looking for a home run. There is also less certainty in terms of having good S/R to trade off.


----------



## CanOz

pavilion103 said:


> The last two nights the context was perfect for decent 60+ point moves . I was aggressive because of this.
> 
> Tonight i believe is a night to be more cautious. I won't be looking for a home run. There is also less certainty in terms of having good S/R to trade off.




Yeah, two wide ranging days...due for a bracket to start to form here somewhere, then either big short covering rally or a break even lower maybe...

some trade balance data out in Europe and then mortgage apps in the US...


----------



## pavilion103

Charts and analysis from the last 2 nights. 
Some are my trades, not exact. 
Background chart plus 3 min chart.

Monday 7th April 2014


----------



## pavilion103

Tuesday 8th April 2014


----------



## MichaelD

CanOz said:


> either big short covering rally or a break even lower maybe...




I was just moaning about how I don't like trading the current whipsawing price action, when the Australian futures decided it was time for a rally, presumably short covering. I like trading these.

It was 0.5 of a tick away from hitting the stop midway up the run, but didn't and kept going - Pav, there are plenty of times when these DO hit my stop and I end up with 2 trades with a much less favourable outcome but you just move on to the next time. Sooner or later one of these beauties comes along - usually I get 2-3 of these per month.

+295 points taken with my aggressive pyramiding on the way up.


----------



## CanOz

Can you imagine if that was the SPI contract....wowza

Actually this week i've been practicing using a scale in and scale approach to my plays to see if i can get more aggressive when things are going my way, but less so if not sure or its against me. I'm using the DOM only for execution, which is a first for me. In the past i used the chart trader for limit orders or occasionally my hot keys...I've had great results on sim but obviously i need to take this new method live to prove anything...Its the same plays, just more aggressive size added when i need it....

The key for me here, is getting a good price, a steal...


----------



## MichaelD

CanOz said:


> Can you imagine if that was the SPI contract...




Err - same tick $ value, and basically tracks the SPI tick-for-tick, just offset by a few points.


----------



## CanOz

MichaelD said:


> Err - same tick $ value, and basically tracks the SPI tick-for-tick, just offset by a few points.




struth, well done Michael...Take the rest of the week off!


----------



## CanOz

Looks like the squeeze is on...


----------



## Newt

CanOz said:


> struth, well done Michael...Take the rest of the week off!




Please tell me that wasn't 295 x $25 then Michael?


----------



## Newt

What's everyone thinking for the FTSE tonight?
Are we going back up through 6594, or is there room for a pull back to opening levels.  

That 6585 major R area you mentioned Pav is acting like a mega-magnet right now?


----------



## CanOz

Newt said:


> What's everyone thinking for the FTSE tonight?
> Are we going back up through 6594, or is there room for a pull back to opening levels.
> 
> That 6585 major R area you mentioned Pav is acting like a mega-magnet right now?




Well my take on it, the longer we stay here less likely we are to crack higher...Could be that we just saw the short covering rally. But take out todays high and that scenario is in the toilet...


----------



## kid hustlr

Ive donated 5 points trying to sell it. Chart without context looks quite bullish as I sit here right now but that resistance circa 6585 is a strong one.

According to my stats I am now -11.5 ticks on the FTSE since I began trading it ( first trade late last year I think?? maybe 40-50 trades overall?!?!?)

Baby steps!

Rubbish sample size mind you I take more trades than that in 1 week during the day ha


----------



## Lone Wolf

Newt said:


> What's everyone thinking for the FTSE tonight?
> Are we going back up through 6594, or is there room for a pull back to opening levels.
> 
> That 6585 major R area you mentioned Pav is acting like a mega-magnet right now?




I'm thinking it'll take a bit of effort to get through this level and we're heading into the wrong time of day to get effort.


----------



## Newt

Yes Wolf, range continuing, getting tighter, still around 6585.  No sign of anything decisive as yet, and getting into a quieter period as you say. 

Kid, I've put myself back into sim trading for another month.  I had two days of live trading before the daylight savings time changes, and was down a a few points for my trouble.  

Forcing myself to write much more on context, trends and trade entry/exits now.  Pav's notes shamed me into cleaning my act up.  Need to treat it like a 2nd business, not just a hobby.


----------



## CanOz

Well I'm thinking yesty's low was a bit poor and will be re-visited. However, I'm a little biased as I'm short half a dozen US Power Setups and hoping they hold...


----------



## MichaelD

A few random comments.

Why is there surprise at just how powerful flogging a good move for all it's worth can be?

Unsure of the US and UK markets, but we're at a level now where we've been several times before in the last couple of months. Dunno if it'll go up or down from here. Is it really that important to predict?

If it goes up, risk manage a long trade.
If it goes down, risk manage a short trade.


----------



## CanOz

MichaelD said:


> A few random comments.
> 
> 1. Why is there surprise at just how powerful flogging a good move for all it's worth can be?
> 
> Unsure of the US and UK markets, but we're at a level now where we've been several times before in the last couple of months. Dunno if it'll go up or down from here.
> 
> 2. Is it really that important to predict?
> 
> If it goes up, risk manage a long trade.
> If it goes down, risk manage a short trade.




eh hem...

1. From my pov, i was surprised because i didn't realize the CFD was 25 AUD per point. Big money doesn't amaze me anymore, TH has pretty much allowed me to believe the potential...

2. I enjoy the analysis, plus i'm already short half a dozen equities so i'll get stopped out unless the correction gets deeper...Otherwise its just context and i'll look for longs above today high and shorts below current value so no concern there....


----------



## CanOz

My line in the sand is 9520, below i'm bearish and above i'm looking for longs...we might see some consolidation here depending on how the US goes...


----------



## Newt

MichaelD said:


> If it goes up, risk manage a long trade.
> If it goes down, risk manage a short trade.




Its also good to reinforce to the wannabes here we need to be profitable, not right - as many here have said before.  Its worth saying over and over until we're REALLY thinking that way though.


----------



## CanOz

Not allot of people interested in the volume profile stuff, but this is a perfect example of short covering. If we don't get any new buyers then we can expect price to look for value lower again, as the rally was only shorts covering and any new longs will only add to the fire if we head lower...

The reverse 'P' profile is a typical short covering shape...A 'b' profile is typical of long liquidation...

This is the FTSE but the DAX is the same anyway...


----------



## CanOz

The FTSE has found some buyers, it broke higher with the ES, the DAX is lagging a bit though...

If the Globex high holds once the ES opens then next stop is the 1860 for it (the S&P emini), about 50% of the correction so far...If we close above that, I'm thinking this might be all we get for a lousy correction


----------



## kid hustlr

Newt said:


> Yes Wolf, range continuing, getting tighter, still around 6585.  No sign of anything decisive as yet, and getting into a quieter period as you say.
> 
> Kid, I've put myself back into sim trading for another month.  I had two days of live trading before the daylight savings time changes, and was down a a few points for my trouble.
> 
> Forcing myself to write much more on context, trends and trade entry/exits now.  Pav's notes shamed me into cleaning my act up.  Need to treat it like a 2nd business, not just a hobby.




yeah obviously preparation is key. for me though IME I've just got to get in there and swing the bat, trust myself and execute well, a lot of that stuff comes though practice.


----------



## pavilion103

Wow lots of discussion on here last night. Great to see.

10 points down for me. 
Tried to short that area (2 contracts).

Saw that it pushed above.
Will look tonight if it tests/holds at the 6000 level. Then I'd be more inclined for a long.

We'll see.


----------



## MichaelD

The overnight price action well illustrates the dilemma of trading an index.

"An index is a mean-reverting instrument...except when its not".

i.e.

Most of the time fading a move is the profitable answer.
Most of the time breakouts fail.

Emphasis on "most of the time".


----------



## CanOz

MichaelD said:


> The overnight price action well illustrates the dilemma of trading an index.
> 
> "An index is a mean-reverting instrument...except when its not".
> 
> i.e.
> 
> Most of the time fading a move is the profitable answer.
> Most of the time breakouts fail.
> 
> Emphasis on "most of the time".




Yes, add to that the 'two markets in one' with the EU markets...lots of fun


----------



## MichaelD

CanOz said:


> 'two markets in one' with the EU markets




Please expand on this. I'm guessing you're referring to the FTSE and the DAX...?


----------



## CanOz

MichaelD said:


> Please expand on this. I'm guessing you're referring to the FTSE and the DAX...?




Yeah, the FTSE, DAX, Eurostoxx etc...

Once the ES opens, or just before, the European products are mostly arbed to the US markets, instead of the Globex contracts (ES,NQ, YM etc.) being arbed to the EU contracts, also the volume increases again, as the US opens...

Two personalities, completely different in the book and watching a chart....


----------



## CanOz

Here are the Charts for the FTSE, for interest. We have put in a decent amount of volume on the bottom, which suggests long liquidation, not new longs. This means that this rally could be short covering. However, we are now approaching levels that must draw in new buyers again. 

I also have the Volume Weighted Averages Prices so you can see where value is (the most agreed on price by volume) on the daily continuous, monthly 60m, and weekly 60m. 

All great for providing context and telling us that we need to continue seeing buyers enter to keep this rally off that low going...


----------



## pavilion103

Trade 1 near open. 

Trailed stop a little. Want to give it some room though until the market tells me it's time to exit. 

6655 is obviously going to be important ahead if we even get close


----------



## CanOz

hmm, me too, ready to flip it though...


----------



## pavilion103

Stop moved to 23


----------



## CanOz

There a BOE interest rate decision today too, but I can't see there being any surprises, still it is news...


----------



## Newt

CanOz said:


> There a BOE interest rate decision today too, but I can't see there being any surprises, still it is news...




Yes, noted that Canoz.  10pm Qld time - might make the market a bit more tentative in the hours before?
Trying to get in the habit of always checking as part of writing up context of daily and hourly charts


----------



## pavilion103

Personally, I am more thinking long than short now. 

Contemplated adding a low risk one at 29 with stop 25.5 (minimal 3.5 point risk), but didn't. 

I will hold the stop at 23 for now. If this breaks higher then re-assess. 

6655 ahead.


----------



## pavilion103

OK out. 

Trade 1 = 16 points

Looking for a short setup now if one presents.


----------



## CanOz

pavilion103 said:


> OK out.
> 
> Trade 1 = 16 points
> 
> Looking for a short setup now if one presents.




I had my short all ready, just next in line after my stop loss....then i went on a bike ride, came back, 15 in profit on 1...


----------



## pavilion103

Short 18, initial stop 22, 

Now stop to BE.


----------



## CanOz

Woo hoo a 20 point flush out just after i added another one short and one & two on the FTSE!! Gotta love that...


----------



## CanOz

I was short on the dax  at87 ish and added another at 72 ish...at the same time i got into a 4 car ftse trade...


----------



## pavilion103

Ask Brian Taylor would say. 

BOY OH BOY WOWEE


----------



## CanOz

Short covering rally is over, no buyer in sight so far on this down draft, 100 points on this LAST contract so far...


----------



## pavilion103

Out 6579

39 points


Now for a long at this 6560 level.


----------



## pavilion103

CanOz said:


> Short covering rally is over, no buyer in sight so far on this down draft, 100 points on this LAST contract so far...




WOW


----------



## Newt

Quite a night....


----------



## pavilion103

Long 78, 66


Did contemplate 73. That was the best entry on the 5 min


----------



## CanOz

pavilion103 said:


> Long 78, 66
> 
> 
> Did contemplate 73. That was the best entry on the 5 min




I had to go over to my neighbors place for an hour, so i missed all that. Not at all disappointed and i think I'll celebrate this weekend, my biggest day ever.....

That was one of those days where ya feel your just going with the flow of the market and every trade feels like the right thing to do...that's the way to trade index futures.


----------



## pavilion103

CanOz said:


> I had to go over to my neighbors place for an hour, so i missed all that. Not at all disappointed and i think I'll celebrate this weekend, my biggest day ever.....
> 
> That was one of those days where ya feel your just going with the flow of the market and every trade feels like the right thing to do...that's the way to trade index futures.




Congrats mate. 

Glad to see all the success in this thread at the moment. 

It's been a brilliant thread on this forum. It's added so much.


----------



## VSntchr

CanOz said:


> I had to go over to my neighbors place for an hour, so i missed all that. Not at all disappointed and i think I'll celebrate this weekend, *my biggest day ever.....*
> 
> That was one of those days where ya feel your just going with the flow of the market and every trade feels like the right thing to do...that's the way to trade index futures.




Nice one Can!

Pav, that long is looking okay now too...what's your plan from here?


----------



## kid hustlr

jeepers she goes thin over the BOE stuff. gotta remember that for next time, glad i got out just before hand (even though it doesnt look like its doing much)

edit: congrats CanOz! and you were gonna give it away!


----------



## pavilion103

What did you do kid?
You got out?

Just went on Skype to see how you were going to manage it and congratulate you on a well earnt win!


----------



## pavilion103

VSntchr said:


> Nice one Can!
> 
> Pav, that long is looking okay now too...what's your plan from here?





The plan is just trail this now at pivot lows. More than happy with the profit, so I don't mind if it takes me out. Plus bet time soon. 

30 up on this trade now. 

6630 is the obvious resistance zone if it gets there. 

What a night!

Currently at 80 points profit.


----------



## CanOz

What a run, i think we've found some buyers!!

Check out the swing chart...


----------



## pavilion103

OK wow. It's up around 6615. 

Bed time. 

I either 

1) Take profit here for 38 points on this trade

OR

2) I leave the stop below the recent pivot low at 6597 with a minimum 20 points profit and leave this overnight. 


We still look strong. 
6630 resistance above will be the big test of strength. 

If I was staying up there is no way I would exit this. No signs of slowing yet. Very strong. 


Hmmmmm... the question is will it pull back below the 6597 level if I leave it over night?
What are the chances of it breaking above?

I think I'm going to leave it at 6597. Daily looks strong. I think worth the chance in this situation. 
We'll see what the US does.


----------



## pavilion103

Scratch that. Just closed 6610. 

I still think this could move but I'm happy with that. 

82 points for the night.


----------



## pavilion103

Wish I was up for that last down move. 

Saw it rolling over before bed.
Bloody work costing me money again : 

Would have been handy!


----------



## pavilion103

What did you make Can? Close to 10K? 

I've gotta get on the DAX. 

I think I'm just about ready to check it out. 
Will just observe it for a bit first. 

Seems like I'm missing out on opportunity!


----------



## Wysiwyg

pavilion103 said:


> Wish I was up for that last down move.
> 
> Saw it rolling over before bed.



Wondering in what time frame or at what point you saw it "rolling over". Even a chart that shows this rollover.


----------



## pavilion103

Wysiwyg said:


> Wondering in what time frame or at what point you saw it "rolling over". Even a chart that shows this rollover.




Probably poor terminology from me. 
Not rolling over. Moreso consolidating and then producing a narrowly lower high. The first signs that it MAY top given the overall context.

So no, no real rolling over, just a potential topping that I was looking for, halting the up move.


----------



## pavilion103

Very interesting night ahead. I wonder if this will break lower violently, or if we have another bar that pushes up. 

I definitely want to put myself in a position to capitalise on a a big down move if it happens. Will be watching the open carefully. If we push towards 6500 that will be interesting. First area to watch if it pushes down is the 6525 low of yesterday. 

I will be reasonably aggressive on the open to the short side (with caution).


----------



## MichaelD

pavilion103 said:


> Very interesting night ahead. I wonder if this will break lower violently, or if we have another bar that pushes up.




Indeed. I fat-fingered a short trade overnight...by the time I realized what I had done I was able to get a Break Even stop in place so no harm done - it was a very good night to be fat-fingered short since the stop trailed down for about 40% of the overall move.  Both very pleased and very angry with myself at the same time.

The Australian market did nothing all day - just rangebound in a 10-20 point range - so no clues there on either the open or the close.

Still, 3 failed attempts on the upside must count for something. I have a little each way at the moment. We will see what the night brings. My head thinks the same way as you - there seems to be significant downside potential here, but I'll trade whatever comes along. Enjoying the present volatility.


----------



## CanOz

I'm not actually trading today, but stealing a glance at the market in between making room for baby stuff...

I will say that i have not seen the order flow like this since the European sovereign debt crisis. The market is frantically searching for value...when i saw this the first time it was when i was just starting to read the order flow and i thought i was just always like this When it slowed down i didn't know what to think. Good to see it again...i wonder what TH thinks?


----------



## MichaelD

Surprising evening so far. Looked like the short scenario was going to play out, but not to be (yet!).

Entered short @ 5420
Exited @ 5415 shortly thereafter for +5 via trailing stop.

Now have a Buy Stop @ 5430 and a Sell Stop @ 5400 in play.

Basically sitting on my hands and waiting for the market to decide solidly one way or the other where it will go. I'll be perfectly happy if nothing more happens overnight.


----------



## pavilion103

For the first time I had 3 contracts at once. 

Short

1 - 6536 - running
2 - 6525 - running
3 - 6518  (Exited 6503)

Triangle forming at the open of the US. 

One stop above this. 
The other a wide one at 6532

Currently up 110 points for the night with about 40 locked in.


----------



## MichaelD

pavilion103 said:


> 3 - 6518  (Exited 6503)




Curious as to why only 1 of your contracts has been exited. Quite different to my pyramid exit which is one out all out.


----------



## pavilion103

MichaelD said:


> Curious as to why only 1 of your contracts has been exited. Quite different to my pyramid exit which is one out all out.




To be honest this was not a planned exit. 
I had to head out for the night and thought I'd lock in 1 gain near the support low. 
I would have left it is I'd stayed home. 

I closed out the other two around the 6500. 
I could have left them with a wide stop but 
1) The US open provided a nice triangle. I thought best to trail above this. 
2) I had about 70 points on the table and satisfied with that for the night. 

Having done this I wonder if it will smash down by 80 points over night. Either way I'm satisfied. 

Nice little base forming for a long actually, but contextually not sure if it's any good. 

Time for bed. 

That is by far my best week. 
Definitely over 200 points up. Will have to check just how much. 
Probably around $4,000 I'd imagine. 
Will go over all the spreadsheets tomorrow.


----------



## pavilion103

Not as much as some of the other more experienced traders in this thread. 
A couple of the guys have put me to shame with the single trade/day wins this week!

But my upward trajectory is looking good. 
Getting comfortable with multiple contracts. 

Can't wait for next week but will enjoy the break


----------



## pavilion103

Dammit that basso mentioned has produced 15 points profit in 10 mins and moving! Grr. Ah well.


----------



## MichaelD

pavilion103 said:


> That is by far my best week.




Point 1. Fantastic! Well done.

Point 2. DANGER! DANGER! When things just flow like they have for you this week you very quickly start to feel bold and invincible. It's very, very intoxicating.


----------



## pavilion103

Michael, I'm actually glad it's the weekend. Despite the great week I need a break, recharge and to get away from it for a few days. I need a clear mind and come back Monday focused.
You're right, it's easy to get carried away.


On last nights action.
Price closed 6475.
It taught me a lesson.

A push up to the 6520-30 area again could have been expected.
It did push up to 6520 and then fell back down again.

I don't mind taking one off the table like I did at 6500. But the whole reason for the second was to hold for a bigger move which I believed was probable in the context.

Thankfully price only fell to 6475 and cost me 25 points for closing that last contract.

Would have felt sick if it smashes down to low 6400s given my plan.

Psychologically, I panicked. But wasn't hurt too badly this time.

Next time - stick to the plan! Hold the second one.

Not too upset but this IS part of my plan. I believe it is best for me and next time I need to adhere to it. Would have been best for me to leave one and go to bed. Watching the chart at that point can only cause confusion on an already set plan!


----------



## payday

MichaelD said:


> Point 2. DANGER! DANGER! When things just flow like they have for you this week you very quickly start to feel bold and invincible. It's very, very intoxicating.




That's so true. I always make it a point after a fantastic week (or even a bad one or an indifferent one) to "reset my mind". Forget about the week I had and just go back to the job of looking for setups and try not to get caught up in the euphoria. Stay focussed and try not to look at the scoreboard. The match isn't over until the final whistle so just keep playing.


----------



## MichaelD

pavilion103 said:


> Watching the chart at that point can only cause confusion on an already set plan!



Excessive real time chart watching, and subsequent fiddling, is an EXTREMELY hard habit to break. Don't worry, I'm well and truly guilty of this as well and it's a constant struggle for me to avoid it.

I have a laptop by my bed set up to have a blank screen most of the time (so I can sleep) but to produce reasonably loud audio alerts if trigger levels are reached. I still frequently take a peek, even if I don't really need to.


payday said:


> Stay focussed and try not to look at the scoreboard.



Normally I solely reward myself on Saturdays after trading has closed for the week. I do my numbers for the week, take out my wages and get set up for Monday's open.

Keeping an intra-week eye on the scoreboard is unusual for me. Keeping track of the results of individual trades (as posted here this week) is unusual as well.

ps After bemoaning the price action earlier this week in this thread it has also turned out to be an excellent week for me. +5% return on trading capital is above average for me, so I'm pleased. Next week? Who knows.


----------



## beachlife

I made $10k on the German 30 cfd on Thurs, gave it all back last night.  On review today, 90% of my trades last night did not meet my criteria, it was effectively a night at the casino.  Just when I thought I had my discipline under control my mindset was undone by one extreme night.  Glad its the weekend.

That's why I like end of day trading, I have to sleep between each bar


----------



## MichaelD

pavilion103 said:


> Psychologically, I panicked. But wasn't hurt too badly this time.






beachlife said:


> Just when I thought I had my discipline under control my mindset was undone by one extreme night.




As most people reading this thread would be aware, I believe that our own psychology is the #1 threat to our profitability.

We've just had a fascinating couple of weeks of trading. Basically there has been a run of fairly low range trading. Routine grinding if you will. Boring small tick trades. All of a sudden there has been a rush of 1% moves up and down. Heady and profitable stuff. Big tick profits. Can't do anything wrong nights.

The active posters here all seem to have everything else right;
 - positive expectancy
 - trading to a plan
 - limiting losses
 - letting winners run
 - appropriate position sizing and money management.

But what has limited profitability this week? Our own psychology. Nothing more, nothing less.

I'm not a robot and have my own psychological trading demons which I continue to battle.
I've also been through the euphoria of the big winner and then the desolation of giving it all back.
I've had several blow-ups over the years.

Each time I have got back up, looked inwards, and learned from the experience.
Each time I have come back as a better, stronger and more consistent trader than the last time.

One thing for me that has been consistent over the years, particularly the last few years as I've been more consistently profitable - I really, really enjoy the actual process of trading. I look forwards to going to work on Monday morning when my market opens. I haven't enjoyed anything else I've done for work as much as I enjoy trading.

It's a truly fascinating game we play, isn't it?


----------



## payday

MichaelD said:


> Each time I have got back up, looked inwards, and learned from the experience.
> Each time I have come back as a better, stronger and more consistent trader than the last time.
> 
> One thing for me that has been consistent over the years, particularly the last few years as I've been more consistently profitable - I really, really enjoy the actual process of trading. I look forwards to going to work on Monday morning when my market opens. I haven't enjoyed anything else I've done for work as much as I enjoy trading.
> 
> It's a truly fascinating game we play, isn't it?




I agree wholeheartedly with these statements Michael. I quit my regular day job last year and one reason was that I was making more money from trading than I was from the regular day job. But the main reason was that I really enjoy trading. The psychological aspects of trading are so challenging yet so important to master. The technical side of things is not that hard but what's going on between the ears to me, really makes the difference.


----------



## pavilion103

My notes from Friday night's session. 
Why I looked for a short. 
How I planned to trade it. 
How I did trade it. 

Chart 1 - daily
Chart 2 - 2 weeks hourly
Chart 3 - 3 min intraday


----------



## CanOz

Pav, IBs TWS now supports Multicharts, have you tried it yet?


----------



## pavilion103

CanOz said:


> Pav, IBs TWS now supports Multicharts, have you tried it yet?




I haven't heard of it before!
What is it?
Would love to try it out!


----------



## payday

pavilion103 said:


> I haven't heard of it before!
> What is it?
> Would love to try it out!




When you open TWS you will see 2 tabs at the bottom - one named TWS classic and the other Mosaic. Click the Mosaic tab, and then click the file tab at the top left. Highlight the new window option and down the list you should see the Multicharts option. Click on that and it will download Multicharts for you. It's just another charting software - nothing special (for me at least)


----------



## Newt

Is the volume on that daily/27wks chart correct?  Rapidly increasing since Mar17, very high since Mar 24?
I've heard IB volume is artificially generated, but is Dec 16 through Mar 3 missing or really that much less?

(Do I keep asking too many questions!???    )


----------



## payday

Newt said:


> Is the volume on that daily/27wks chart correct?  Rapidly increasing since Mar17, very high since Mar 24?
> I've heard IB volume is artificially generated, but is Dec 16 through Mar 3 missing or really that much less?
> 
> (Do I keep asking too many questions!???    )




That was probably when the new contract kicked in - the previous volume prior to that date was still trading the March contract before rollover.


----------



## pavilion103

payday said:


> That was probably when the new contract kicked in - the previous volume prior to that date was still trading the March contract before rollover.




Yes.


----------



## pavilion103

Canoz.... still keen on this Skype group if you're interested. 

What do you reckon?


----------



## CanOz

pavilion103 said:


> Canoz.... still keen on this Skype group if you're interested.
> 
> What do you reckon?




Sure, just PM you're Skype name, and anyone else who interested...


----------



## pavilion103

If I give you my email is that enough to find me?


----------



## CanOz

pavilion103 said:


> If I give you my email is that enough to find me?




Well i can only try...


----------



## pavilion103

Ok sent mate. 

Do you generally have Skype up when you are trading?


Others who are keen please send Canoz your email. 



Looking forward to the week ahead. 
Still favouring shorts at this stage.


----------



## CanOz

pavilion103 said:


> Ok sent mate.
> 
> Do you generally have Skype up when you are trading?
> 
> 
> Others who are keen please send Canoz your email.
> 
> 
> 
> Looking forward to the week ahead.
> Still favouring shorts at this stage.




Skype's on 24/7 mostly....I do shut her down once in a while overnight...


----------



## pavilion103

The weekend was a good break. Gave me a chance to catch up on some ironing............






But seriously. I love the advice of people like Michael, Canoz, payday etc. 
Psychology is key. 
Completely new week. 
Last week is gone. 
It's all about executing processes well.


----------



## CanOz

The Skype group can be formed once i add all the participants to my Skype address book. Not sure but i think the group can communicate even when I'm not online, after we get the group formed.

I won't be on the group for long after next week, but will drop in from time to time. We're in the process of buying some property and we'll be traveling to Australia for three weeks as of next week. Then after that I'll be going back into the corporate world for a few years. I'll be wrapping up my futures trading and I'll go back to swing trading Nick's power setups as its less time consuming. 

However, I'm very happy to pass on all of my knowledge and trading style that I've developed from 3 years of screen time.... to anyone that interested that has not formed their own profitable trading style...this may give those without much of an idea, someplace to start (which i wish i had when i started). Of course, you have to make your trading your own, so its just going to give you ideas...


----------



## MichaelD

The Australian market is heading downwards today after a couple of dead cat bounces.

Currently have 2 parcels short with a locked in trailing stop.

Seems to have plateaued for the moment, but I'm not convinced. I've discovered the IG Markets "Client Sentiment" chart which tells me that other people are less short than they were a week ago (back when the market peaked) and are currently buying the Australia 200 (aka bottom picking). This strongly suggests to me that there will be more downside to this move. Still an experimental contrarian indicator and still one I'm just watching, but interesting nonetheless.


----------



## CanOz

MichaelD said:


> Still an experimental contrarian indicator and still one I'm just watching, but interesting nonetheless.




Particularly useful for being on the right side of stop runs too


----------



## pavilion103

Good one Michael. You seem to be getting some strong results.

I know we can all speculate but do you think things could come off fairly severely to the short side? I'm thinking that it will at some point. Maybe not but not sure. 
To me it just looks like things will smash lower at some point. A lot of weakness towards the top!


----------



## MichaelD

pavilion103 said:


> Good one Michael. You seem to be getting some strong results.



Just a few good days following on from a week or two of not overly productive grinding. The way the market is moving currently just happens to suit the way I trade. It'll pass soon enough. No special skill on my part.

FWIW my current short trade now has 3 x pyramided positions with profits locked in with a trailing stop + a fourth just opened.



pavilion103 said:


> I know we can all speculate but do you think things could come off fairly severely to the short side?



I have no idea. Right at the moment, I'm aggressively shorting. I have no long orders in the market at this time and am happy to wait for a while until things settle down before putting a small fishing long order in to see what happens.

This is not skill. This is just me "selling if it goes down" as I do.

If I was to speculate:

1. The market is still range trading, but heading towards the bottom of the range again.
2. The top and bottom of the range have been tested multiple times already, so whichever way it goes will probably be quite dramatic.
3. There's not much fear around given the 3% we've dropped quite quickly.

My head thus suggests there is more downside to come. However, price action solely will determine how I trade.


----------



## CanOz

Thinking mostly a rotational day, but if the DAX doesn't find any buyers if it tests 9200 then that could change...

I don't we've quite got enough liquidation and new shorts to get an explosive short covering rally just yet...


----------



## MichaelD

Shorts closed. Unusual to get 6 pyramids on the way down before the stop gets hit. Porterhouse steak again tonight instead of mince.

Now flat with a very small Buy Stop order in.

IG Client sentiment - people have stopped buying the dip (67% buying earlier today, now only 52% buying). I've become a bit bullish again.


----------



## CanOz

MichaelD said:


> IG Client sentiment - people have stopped buying the dip (67% buying earlier today, now only 52% buying). I've become a bit bullish again.




What about the German 30 Michael?


----------



## MichaelD

CanOz said:


> What about the German 30 Michael?




DAX rising but IG clients are selling.

Certainly fits with my bullish view.


----------



## CanOz

ooh, cool...thanks


----------



## pavilion103

All over the bloody place. 
Was up 65 points open profit. 
Too much closing positions and getting back in. Losing my nerve a few times. 
Took a silly one that cost me 10 points. Way too much risk that far into a move. Dumb. Should be taking 5 max there. 

Question of how wide to trail my last one. 
It all comes down to my confidence in my analysis of the context. 
Do I just leave it right at the top and walk away lol? That would mean I end up BE after being that far up. 
I've put myself in a hole here. 
I can't lose anything but I can give a lot back. 

Crap. I'm a moron 


And I've put it at the 6482 level which is a pivot high. 


Taken out. Only finished 22 points up. 

If I'd traded how I "should have" it would have been 40 locked in. 

Never mind.


----------



## pavilion103

My preconceived notion of a big short cost me tonight. 

Should have lifted one that I took off at 82, at 68 instead. That's +14

Then the short that cost me 10 points should not have existed. That's +10

Probably should have been +24. Which is 46 points for the night. 

Instead 22. 

Easy in hindsight, but I can't afford to be blinded like that. 

In the end still 22 points I guess and $400 in the pocket. But grrrrr :frown:


----------



## CanOz

yeah, ya can't get too hung up on your biases. I used to document the homework process, level by level. I found though, that it locked me into thinking something in particular was going to happen. I found for me its better to run through some possibilities about if its going to be long liquidation, short covering, rotational, etc. and then let the market tell me whats happening, within some references to that context...

We've all been there...


----------



## MichaelD

Pav,

Seriously consider walking away for a couple of days.

You are in a bad place right now mentally for trading. Been there, done that. You've gone from "invincible" last week to very fragile and unsure of yourself. Mistakes and revenge trades happen here.

The market will still be here next week. It doesn't care about our mental states. It just does what it does. It goes up. It goes down. It doesn't cause us pain. That's all self-imposed.

Remember the clichÃ© - "You're only as good as your last trade".


----------



## Newt

Its interesting the FTSE has bounced back to a bit above the upper channel range for the last couple of days (to 6493) and now ranging sidesways back into to top of the range (well, the one I've drawn in, anyway).  

I've been enjoying more Al Brooks lately, and he makes it clear beginners should be trading in the direction of the longer term trend (down last couple of nights).  For me that would have (sim trading) seen me in around 6496 shorting and possibly a 2nd contract at 6482'ish.  I would have been out around 18:28 and happy to make 20-30 points.  

As tempting as the bounce from 6455 up looked initially I wouldn't have been game to trust it (or at least only expected 5-10 pts from it conservatively with too high a risk equation for my beginner's mentality).


----------



## pavilion103

Still 20 points up for the night.
Not a bad result overall.

Did well to get up 65. Then made a few indecisive decisions. Cost me some open profit.

I will be back focused tomorrow. 

More worried about the lessons to learn than any regret.

I'm good at getting myself back focused the next day almost every day following a bad one is a good one for me. It focuses me.


----------



## MichaelD

Only a very small +5 taken from the run up this evening (small position size, choppy rise which doesn't suit my trailing stop). Back in higher up with a bigger position size. Will see how that pans out.

IG Client sentiment very interesting - once again people are selling as the market rises. I'm starting to think this might actually be a useful rather than merely entertaining piece of information. Must think of a way to track this info. Right at the moment, these posts are the only (approximately) timed record I have.


----------



## CanOz

Whats the scoop on the Honk Kong market Michael?

If anyone wants to see how I practice my trading style on the HHI/HSI they can join my meeting by downloading Team-viewer and signing in with this number....m34-029-366

Not sure if i have audio or not, PM me and i'll give you my skype if interested....


----------



## MichaelD

CanOz said:


> Whats the scoop on the Honk Kong market Michael?




IG Client sentiment as below on HS50 instrument. Haven't looked at a chart. FWIW Aussie market struggling to get through a key resistance level at the moment.


----------



## CanOz

MichaelD said:


> IG Client sentiment as below on HS50 instrument. Haven't looked at a chart. FWIW Aussie market struggling to get through a key resistance level at the moment.




Thanks....

I suspect the HHI and HSI are stinking things up a bit at the moment...explains the SPI issue.


----------



## MichaelD

MichaelD said:


> Aussie market struggling to get through a key resistance level at the moment.



Formed a nice pennant and just broke to the upside. Let's see if it holds. Sentiment showing lots of selling going on despite the rise, so accordingly I'll feel bullish about the current prospects.


----------



## MichaelD

Failed pennant/breakout and now a bump 'n' grind downwards. Big directional moves are entertaining and profitable to trade, but it's back to the mundane reality of mostly trading noise for the moment as far as I am concerned. Hard to take much more than a small % of these moves.

Who knows whether there'll be a big break downwards or whether the trading range will hold yet again.


----------



## MichaelD

Fascinating behaviour. Bottom of the range held yet again, in quite convincing fashion.

And yet, we're struggling to get above yesterday's highs.

News out of the US is really mixed - plenty of the "sell in May and go away" crowd out and about.

Still only grinding away as far as I am concerned. Very small position sizes. Have a long in play with a trailing stop. Don't know if it will amount to anything substantial.

Probably not.


----------



## pavilion103

Strange price action last night.

Finished down 20 for the night.

Not the easiest day to trade unless you really had confidence at the S/R levels but wasn't easy to work out in real time last night.


----------



## MichaelD

pavilion103 said:


> ...wasn't easy to work out in real time last night.




It's NEVER easy to work out in real time 

Hindsight on the other hand...

Managed to grind out +10 for the night, well under 50% of the available move, and a very quick +15 on a couple of bars during the pre-open/open (bigger position size). Doesn't show up well on the chart markings - doesn't make for exciting viewing like the hugely pyramided +295 from the other day.

Just another routine stint at the office grinding away managing risk.

Sitting flat now with orders to open both sides of the current price action.


----------



## pavilion103

Oh my goodness I was asleep at the wheel last night. 

I was slack with my pre-open analysis. 
Missed some very obvious levels. 

Very unusual to be oblivious like that. 

More costly in terms of potential profit than losses incurred. But still....


----------



## 5oclock

pavilion103 said:


> Oh my goodness I was asleep at the wheel last night.
> 
> I was slack with my pre-open analysis.
> Missed some very obvious levels.
> 
> Very unusual to be oblivious like that.
> 
> More costly in terms of potential profit than losses incurred. But still....
> 
> View attachment 57643




The old support and resistance trick......oldest trick in the book ( quote from agent 86 Max Smart)


----------



## beachlife

My recent melt down inspired me to write an EA to take me out of the equation and also keep trading while the US is open.  I gave it a run live for the first time last night.  It made $690 in a $1000 test account.  The trailing stop is going to need some tweeking for when the volatility dies down, but it caught the big moves, so a promising start.





Got $800 from my own trading.  A good night but didnt make the most of the big moves because I am less aggressive after my recent disaster.


----------



## 5oclock

beachlife said:


> My recent melt down inspired me to write an EA to take me out of the equation and also keep trading while the US is open.  I gave it a run live for the first time last night.  It made $690 in a $1000 test account.  The trailing stop is going to need some tweeking for when the volatility dies down, but it caught the big moves, so a promising start.
> 
> View attachment 57644
> 
> 
> Got $800 from my own trading.  A good night but didnt make the most of the big moves because I am less aggressive after my recent disaster.




BEACH, sounds to me that your less aggressive approach is working nicely, hind sight is all BS, and no point in worrying about not getting the last cent from the market.


----------



## CanOz

Some people wonder how using the depth to execute trades and read the order flow is any better than using a chart. Well let me try and show you the way i now trade the DAX, after a lengthy period of practise on both the DAX and the HHI. 

Say for example i feel that 10100 is a level, resistance if you like, and overall i feel the context of the market is leaning to the downside, from technical or whatever reasons....

I watch how the market attracts buyers or sellers at that area, on the depth. As the price tries to push through i need to decide who is winning at some stage and then make an offer of 1 contract at the highest inside offer...i may not get filled, but likely i will or i can move my limit order down 1 to try and get a fill. So say i get a fill at 10099, so i'm short 1 contract. I then go and try to find a level that i think the market might accelerate down further, possibly from a stop run where longs will bail. I place several more stop limit orders there to get filled if I'm right. 

This gives me a little core position to work around, over 10100 and I'm out around 10110. Otherwise I'm in and adding to positions as it goes my way, and sometimes instead of adding on a breakout, I'll add on a pullback similar to the way i entered. The idea is i want to get the best price i can, take as little heat as possible and if I'm wrong keep my losses very very small.

The DOM lets you get very accurate with this. 

My trading has evolved to this from:

1.Taking 1 contract on a breakout from the chart
2.Taking multiples on a breakout from the chart - all in scale out
3.Taking multiple contracts on a pullback from the chart - all in scale out
4.Finally, establishing a single contract position, adding if it goes my way, taking profit and adding contracts depending on what the market is doing within the context and structure.

This is a much less risky way of trading, my average loss is much less and my average win is far greater...my win/loss ration is less than 50% most days. I am much more active in the market and brokerage is higher.


----------



## CanOz

I'm showing a gap on the FTSE today, same as the dax...


----------



## pavilion103

Took 2 short near open at 6533.5.
No stuffing around tonight. 
Rode out the spike back up.
Now to manage the trade.


----------



## MichaelD

pavilion103 said:


> Took 2 short near open at 6533.5.
> 
> Now to manage the trade.




I've been facing the other way since about 1pm. 

Ain't trading grand!


----------



## CanOz

MichaelD said:


> I've been facing the other way since about 1pm.
> 
> Ain't trading grand!




The FTSE has been offer the whole session so far...

The DAX has been bid, offer and bid again....I'm now -1.5 points net with 200 Eur of commissions....time to go make dinner and call it a night ... lol

Should have napped a little longer...rotational day


----------



## pavilion103

Closed one 6503.
Banked 30.
One still running wide.


----------



## MichaelD

pavilion103 said:


> Closed one 6503.






How can the SPI and the FTSE be going in opposite directions at the same time? (Genuine question here, as I would have thought there would have been arbitrage bots taking advantage of such discrepancies).

Looking at these two snapshots over the same time frames and it's obvious why you're short...but also obvious why I'm long.


----------



## pavilion103

Wow. Interesting!

Second position now trailed above the pivot high of 6525.5. 

Locked in

Trade 1 - 30 points (closed)
Trade 2 - 8 points (open)

Think I will turn it off if I get taken out of this one. 

38 will do me.


----------



## CanOz

pavilion103 said:


> Wow. Interesting!
> 
> Second position now trailed above the pivot high of 6525.5.
> 
> Locked in
> 
> Trade 1 - 30 points (closed)
> Trade 2 - 8 points (open)
> 
> Think I will turn it off if I get taken out of this one.
> 
> 38 will do me.




lol...I'm still in my last one, missed me by a point...


----------



## Lone Wolf

CanOz said:


> I then go and try to find a level that i think the market might accelerate down further, possibly from a stop run where longs will bail. I place several more stop limit orders there to get filled if I'm right.




Thanks for sharing Can. I've always liked the idea of adding to your position as it moves in your favor and new entries appear. But I've never heard of setting them in advance at places you expect price to accelerate in your direction.

I think I need to learn DOM on the DAX. I've been watching the FTSE since it's a nice $/tick size to trade, but these inside the bid/offer (white) quotes are really messing with me.

I could learn to trade the bobl, which would make some sense since I'm still subscribed to the jigsaw trading room. But I like thin markets and learning to trade the bobl seems so far removed from what I've learned so far.


----------



## Lone Wolf

While we're talking DOM...

I saw this on the FTSE this evening. I don't often see such a large order sitting there.




In this case the order actually held, price moved up away from it and eventually the order started trailing along behind the inside bid as price moved up.

But is that normal? In my very short time watching, I've never seen an order that big before, but I've seen other large orders and they seem to end up getting tested (and they usually get quickly pulled). Is the market generally more inclined to test size, or run from it?


----------



## CanOz

Lone Wolf said:


> Thanks for sharing Can. I've always liked the idea of adding to your position as it moves in your favor and new entries appear. But I've never heard of setting them in advance at places you expect price to accelerate in your direction.
> 
> I think I need to learn DOM on the DAX. I've been watching the FTSE since it's a nice $/tick size to trade, but these inside the bid/offer (white) quotes are really messing with me.
> 
> I could learn to trade the bobl, which would make some sense since I'm still subscribed to the jigsaw trading room. But I like thin markets and learning to trade the bobl seems so far removed from what I've learned so far.




It was a little difficult to articulate it...trying to put together a little video about it too...Never seem to get the best example that's easy to see what i'm talking about...


----------



## CanOz

Lone Wolf said:


> While we're talking DOM...
> 
> I saw this on the FTSE this evening. I don't often see such a large order sitting there.
> 
> View attachment 57653
> 
> 
> In this case the order actually held, price moved up away from it and eventually the order started trailing along behind the inside bid as price moved up.
> 
> But is that normal? In my very short time watching, I've never seen an order that big before, but I've seen other large orders and they seem to end up getting tested (and they usually get quickly pulled). Is the market generally more inclined to test size, or run from it?




It happens quite frequently but not as much as it did last year. Sometimes it wants a fill and sometimes they pull it, usually after they fill the orders on the other side. Use the settings and highlight anything over 75....

Most oft he time on the DAX now they just thicken up several levels, creating an imbalance that's easy to see on the strength meters...most of the time if they're thickening up the bids or offers, they're working the other side....


----------



## pavilion103

This could easily break long but if it doesn't here is my final setup of the night. Prepared to risk 9 in this spot if the high holds. 

If it breaks long then goodnight




That chart saved weird. Sorry.


----------



## CanOz

Churn and burn until the news is out now....:burn:


----------



## Lone Wolf

pavilion103 said:


> This could easily break long but if it doesn't here is my final setup of the night. Prepared to risk 9 in this spot if the high holds.
> 
> If it breaks long then goodnight
> 
> View attachment 57654
> 
> 
> That chart saved weird. Sorry.




I had 6530 as resistance on my chart and it looks good for a short to me... so I reckon you're as good as stopped. :


----------



## pavilion103

Lone Wolf said:


> I had 6530 as resistance on my chart and it looks good for a short to me... so I reckon you're as good as stopped. :




I'd better close out now then lol

Wanted to take a limit order at 6527 for only 3.5 point risk, but missed the fill 

Wide risk at the moment, but a high RR area for a short and these setups are part of my plan so willing to take it. 

I've traded well tonight. The best I've traded I reckon. 

Hopefully it leads to one more really good trade! But if not all good.


----------



## pavilion103

No good


----------



## MichaelD

Dull overnight for me. Interesting pre-open and open.

The long position carried over from 1pm yesterday eventually closed on a trailing stop for +15.

The pre-open showed a remarkable 92% selling (i.e. fading). Accordingly, I went long, and indeed that's how the open played out. Unfortunately I didn't screen cap this sentiment for posterity.

I wasn't quick enough to get in at the lowest level of the bounce. That's dotted green on the chart. By the time I got the order ticket on screen the price had moved beyond my desired low risk entry point, so I let it go.

The exit was on the same bar as the pyramid entry as it shot up and then down for +45.

Re-entry long as indicated - that position is currently percolating & I'm set up to go short if price falls away. [Update: Trailing stop added as price went up whilst typing this.]

Overall, my reading of this is we are going through a "fear of missing out" on the surprise bull run along with short stops being taken out on the way up.


----------



## pavilion103

For me a small profit so far this week following my biggest week last week. 

I've taken great initial setups each night, had good open profit and given back a lot of it. 

Last week I identified as a great time to short, and it was. Some big moves that I was able to capture. 

This week I haven't adapted my trading to conditions the way that I should have. 
I've seen 60-70 points total open profit (2 contracts) on multiple days fade to 20 and 30. 

Need to respect S/R levels better. 
When the trending market is there - hammer it. 
When the market isn't trending so well - take my 2 contracts x 30 point winners for the night (60 total). 


I'm glad that these lessons can be learnt while losing open profit rather than incurring losses each night.


----------



## CanOz

Sometimes its best to sit and wait, like last night, the stops were run well and truly after the news came out but before the US opened....


----------



## 5oclock

CanOz said:


> Sometimes its best to sit and wait, like last night, the stops were run well and truly after the news came out but before the US opened....




++1


----------



## MichaelD

pavilion103 said:


> had good open profit and given back a lot of it.




It is illuminating to see everyone's differing, profitable styles here.

I personally hate giving back open profits and so run a tight trailing stop once a trade becomes profitable.


----------



## 5oclock

Michael D, any idea how frequently IG Client sentiment is updated ?


----------



## pavilion103

MichaelD said:


> It is illuminating to see everyone's differing, profitable styles here.  I personally hate giving back open profits and so run a tight trailing stop once a trade becomes profitable.




One certain rare opportunities I want to trail loosely but on a whole I agree.

My whole strategy is based around riding out the initial pullbacks and consolidation between 15-20 points profit and then looking to exit or trail tight around 30-40 points.


----------



## MichaelD

5oclock said:


> Michael D, any idea how frequently IG Client sentiment is updated ?



Hourly.


----------



## MichaelD

pavilion103 said:


> My whole strategy is based around riding out the initial pullbacks and consolidation between 15-20 points profit and then looking to exit or trail tight around 30-40 points.



Actually sounds very similar to me - lots of breathing room to begin with but then clamp down tightly.


----------



## pavilion103

I figure 2 or 3 contracts x a 30-40 point move is far better than trying to go for a 60 point move which is infrequent, and giving back most of it. 

Most of my trades come from a setup at the initial high or low and I don't have to think too much after that (most times ).  

For where I'm at 60-80 points in a night is a good night (with 2 contracts). If I can get 2 or 3 of those nights a week then that's a really good week.  

That's the plan


----------



## barney

pavilion103 said:


> Took 2 short near open at 6533.5.
> No stuffing around tonight.
> *Rode out the spike back up*.
> Now to manage the trade.





Pav,  When you "rode the spike", how loose were you running your stop?   I notice in the past you have been very cautious with your stop position. Holding 2 positions with a market showing potential to move quickly against you seems a different personality to the "regular" Pav?   Just curious as to how much pain you were prepared to absorb had it gone wrong. Cheers.


----------



## pavilion103

Had the stops originally at 40.5
Then when I held firm as it spiked back I had the stops at 37.5 for a total risk of 8 points.

I didn't want to risk the whole 7 points on each (I think it was).

So in answer I moved my stop from the initial one of 40.5 and held it at 37.5 and was willing to cop 8 points loss if it hit 37.5.


----------



## pavilion103

From an initial high at the start of the day I prefer to "back" my setup rather than second guessing in the very initial stages. If it takes me out it does.

Then when it pushed below like last night I move my stop to where I think is reasonably good from a technical point of view. Often I'll do break even. If technically it's better 1 or 2 points away from that I'll do that.

Then when that test fails I'll look at how to manage the trade. Then it will be trail above pivots and then look to take profit at 30-40 points if it shows signs if weakness or is at support/resistance.


----------



## barney

pavilion103 said:


> Had the stops originally at 40.5
> Then when I held firm as it spiked back I had the stops at 37.5 for a total risk of 8 points.
> 
> I didn't want to risk the whole 7 points on each (I think it was).
> 
> So in answer I moved my stop from the initial one of 40.5 and held it at 37.5 and was willing to cop 8 points loss if it hit 37.5.




All good .... I was looking at my AxiTrader chart and noticed the FTSE had spiked to 6545.25 and I thought you had gone Maverick all of a sudden  .......  ( I can only afford Bucket shop data)


----------



## pavilion103

barney said:


> All good .... I was looking at my AxiTrader chart and noticed the FTSE had spiked to 6545.25 and I thought you had gone Maverick all of a sudden  .......  ( I can only afford Bucket shop data)




Haha, if I ever do that, I'll give you the password to my account and you can change it for me so I can never trade again (but don't take my money 

This will help mate. 

My trade(s) from last night


----------



## barney

pavilion103 said:


> Haha, if I ever do that, I'll give you the password to my account and you can change it for me so I can never trade again (but don't take my money
> 
> This will help mate.
> 
> My trade(s) from last night
> 
> View attachment 57659




Ah, that makes more sense now ...... So you actually took your position after the spike turned, not during (like I do lol)

I can see now why you were happy with your efforts  ..... nicely done


----------



## pavilion103

I want to know a little more about those multi-chart options for IB that someone was talking about. 

Does anyone have any screen shots?


----------



## pavilion103

Deja vu around this level as open again. 
I think after holding at 6500 again I favour the long side slightly.
But will see how action plays out.


----------



## MichaelD

Whilst I don't pay all that much heed to "classic" chart patterns, I couldn't help but notice this magnificent example of a double top which has just formed on my chart.

Will it lead to price going down as instructed by the chartists, or will the market go in the opposite direction, just to annoy them...?

Stay tuned, for the next instalment of  -  As The Chart Turns.


----------



## pavilion103

2 long @ 6522. 

Nice base at a reasonably good support level.


----------



## pavilion103

Within 2 bars on the 5 min, stop almost to BE. 

Bit tricky with S/R. 

If it gets to 6550, I'll watch it there. 

Longer term target is 6580. Not sure if it's got that much legs. 

Will watch closely


----------



## pavilion103

Will need some form of pullback/consolidation now.

This is my "ride it out" period. 

Where I am willing to give back 10-15 in order to capture the "real move". 

Very strong break from the base. Looks promising. Hoping for a shallow pullback/consolidation. 
Always a little nervous at this stage of the trade.


----------



## pavilion103

Also note we are at the 6530ish level so not expecting this to breeze through.


----------



## pavilion103

This is where, as it pulls back, you hope a bar just thrusts back up again away from your stop. 





As I speak it's pushed back down to around 6524. Still nervous times. But we are giving it some room. 

Deep pullback as expected in this spot.


----------



## pavilion103

Lame. 

#1 - out BE
#1 - out 2.5 point loss.


----------



## Newt

Tricky night tonight.  Wonder if its a bit more fickle with volume down pre-Easter?
I too bought the bounce off 6511, but at 6520.5 then 2 more @6529.
Sold them all for +1 profit at 17:56

Then tried a brief short back down to support, but panicked on the strong move up at 1800 and bought it back (-4 for the night so far)

Still expecting a bounce back up to last nights close at the very least, but watching current consolidation.
(Disclaimer - no skin in the game - all paper - but I rarely get a chance to watch in realtime so close to the open)


Enjoying your frequent posts tonight Pav (even if its not all good news)


----------



## pavilion103

Really not behaving as expected. Will probably turn off soon for a small loss.


----------



## pavilion103

Good to hear you're enjoying it. 

If price does take off to the long side from here (which I expect). This shallow pullback will be a bullish sign to flush some out. 

Considering a re-entry at 6524, stop 6517. 

Could go tighter but tend not to when I'm a little uncertain. I need price action to prove itself to me. 

lol as I say that the bar breaks lower AGAIN!


----------



## pavilion103

Wow. Right back to support and a reversal bar!

I'll still need a setup to take this. We'll see.


----------



## pavilion103

hmmm 6520, stop 6510 looks ok. Clear reversal bar on different timeframes. 

Will this pull back and test the low of the bar? Or is this ready to fly?


----------



## Newt

It looked like a great push down and reversal around 18:22 but we're not getting strong follow through with some nice green bull bars.  What a night.  

Ah well, I need practice at sitting through real time price action (and learning to sit on my hands).

I'm back in @6519 long (18:24) with 6511 stop......


----------



## pavilion103

Newt said:


> It looked like a great push down and reversal around 18:22 but we're not getting strong follow through with some nice green bull bars.  What a night.
> 
> Ah well, I need practice at sitting through real time price action (and learning to sit on my hands).
> 
> I'm back in @6519 long (18:24) with 6511 stop......




I got 21 entry for 2 contracts. 

Already took one off at BE, simply for that reason that it hasn't followed through strongly. 

Holding 1 stop at 6515.5.


----------



## pavilion103

Stop moved to 18. No stuffing around. Either this takes off or doesn't now.


----------



## 5oclock

Seems to be a lot less players tonight on IG FTSE 100,


----------



## beachlife

My EA got whipped around last night and gave back $500 so made a few adjustements today.  The daily swing charts are setting up for a push down, so tonight will be interesting.


----------



## Newt

Forming nice consolidation area on 2 min chart.
Agree it needs to take off over next 30mins or prognosis poor.

Agree volume very thin compared to usual.  Less than half?


----------



## pavilion103

Well I'm gone for the night fellas. 

I'm going to give myself the night off and come back fresh for next week. 


Tonight I traded well. 
It highlights the importance of defensive trading and risk management. 

6 trades all losses (with slippage and commissions) for a total loss of 8.5 points. 

1 -0.8
2 -0.9
3 -0.4
4 -2.8
5 -0.5
6 -3.1

Had the chance to get in with 2 contracts twice and cut them.


So important to have small losing days. 

When making 40-60 points on many winning days, an 8.5 point loss doesn't make a dent.


----------



## pavilion103

Strangely enough this is one of the most satisfied feelings I've had after a trading night. 

A good sign when satisfaction is based on trading performance and not profitability. 

Happy Easter all. Enjoy time with family and friends.


----------



## MichaelD

pavilion103 said:


> 6 trades all losses (with slippage and commissions) for a total loss of 8.5 points.



Very impressive loss control there indeed.

Australia 200 whipsawing away with no direction. Nothing so far for me. Perhaps it will end decisively at the end of the US session.

No matter. A typical week's return for me so far which is pleasing given it's only a 4 day trading week.


----------



## 5oclock

Agree with MichaelD , PAV , good trading and good loss control.


----------



## Newt

I would have been -12 for the night.  Thought about tightening the hypothetical stop at 6511 before wandering off for dinner.  I believe I would have exited for 6515 after that consolidation area broke down decisively - which would have been -8 total.  Again, all hypothetical for me.  I don't recall seeing a day like this before, so will write it up and look back over charts for anything similar for my "Trembling Hand portfolio" .

Highs of the night still trending down.  I would be calling it quits now too rather than scalping in the barbed wire with my meager beginner skills.

Happy Easter all.


----------



## 5oclock

Newt- your post about sums it for me too---probably all down to the reduced numbers trading---happy easter to you all too.


----------



## MichaelD

MichaelD said:


> ...double top...




Mr Stock Market: Double Top? Never heard of it. Now, how do I cause maximum pain to everyone who has gone short because of this? I know, I'll rally like there's no tomorrow. Hahaha (evil grin).


----------



## pavilion103

Hmmmm..... 

I did state my long bias last night. Proved to be accurate. 

Thinking that I could have stayed on a little longer last night to see if anything played out. 

I've got no doubt I would have taken the following 2 trades. 
1st one out at BE
2nd one would have trailed at around 6550 (if I was awake) and set profit taking targets. Wouldn't have got the full move (well all but 20 points). 

A little annoying but at the time I think I made a good decision to just turn it off and go to bed. 








Note that this was also the perfect day for 2 contracts with the way it trended. 

Take 2 contracts long @ 6520ish.

Profit take order on contract 1 @ 6560  - 40 points profit
Profit take order on contract 2 @ 6580  - 60 points profit

Total = 100 points profit


----------



## Newt

The FTSE certainly did drift up gradually in later trade.  Fascinating how many points were there for straight-forward entries (with the benefit of 20/20 hindsight )


Michael, what the heck is that big spike down at midnight on your chart about?


----------



## CanOz

That last spike up...was that the news about the possible resolution to the UKR standoff? Looks a bit too impulsive for anything but news?


----------



## MichaelD

Newt said:


> Michael, what the heck is that big spike down at midnight on your chart about?




That's the US open. The spike is larger than usual, but there's always a spike of one sort or another at that time. Same sort of thing happens at the Australian open. The spike generally goes in the wrong direction for subsequent price action so can offer a nice low risk entry at times.

From memory, that one took me out of a pyramided trade with a re-entry shortly thereafter.


----------



## pavilion103

Interesting this morning online shopping for clothes. 
I'm fairly conservative with my money in general, but maybe every 6 months or so I'll buy some really nice clothes. 

I find myself, rather than looking at price, converting it in my head to FTSE points lol. 
The $220 Ralph Lauren jumper is 12 FTSE points. 


This brings me to the point of profitability and being smart with the money. 

I'm going to set myself targets where I reward myself. So for example the next $10,000 profit, I can spent $500 or $1000 on whatever. Trying to make it a very small portion of profits because I want to build my capital.

I think these little targets make it more exciting and a little reward along the way helps


----------



## MichaelD

pavilion103 said:


> This brings me to the point of profitability and being smart with the money.
> 
> ...I want to build my capital.




This is actually a very important point, one which I have learned the hard way.

I venture to suggest that most of us initially do this the wrong way. What follows is my observations and opinions. Others are free to disagree.

Reinvesting profits into an income producing trading system is exactly the WRONG thing to do. It blurs your risk management. "Should I take 1 contract or should I take 2 contracts?" "I had a profitable week last week, let's take 2 contracts." Until you've doubled your trading capital, you shouldn't double your risk. This blurring will eventually catch up with you and you will take more risk than you should and get burned.

I now withdraw 100% of my trading profits every week.

When I reach withdrawal targets, I will put a lump sum back into the trading account and scale up at that point.

That means I trade exactly the same every week no matter whether I had a good week or a not-so-good week the week before until I make a clean, sudden leap to the next risk level.


I recall reading of traders that once a year would sell everything and go completely to cash and then start again. I used to think this was silly. I now think this is smart.


----------



## pavilion103

Yeh. That is very much just personal preference for each trader to decide upon. 

Strong risk management should be of primary importance. 

If there is no need make more money beyond a certain point, then no need to take unnecessary risks to do so. 

Even when sizing up, it needs to be very well thought through and without silly risk.


----------



## cynic

MichaelD said:


> I recall reading of traders that once a year would sell everything and go completely to cash and then start again. I used to think this was silly. I now think this is smart.




Yes! This is a great example of one of the many elusive realisations that is typically derived from practical experience.

Of course, if a trader had a history of achieving 100% strike rates, combined with accurate quantification of maximum drawdowns, then it would be an entirely different matter.


----------



## payday

This is one thing that I will have to disagree with you Michael. My thinking is the opposite. Take out a wage - definitely, but reinvest any surplus profits that you do have just like you would any other business. But, just like every other part of trading psychology, it is up to the individual to decide what sits best for them. There is no point reinvesting all your profits if you are very uncomfortable with dealing with a certain amount of money past a certain size. I always remember Jack Schwager's story about one of the best traders he ever met. This guy, from memory, did not have a losing month for years, but whenever he made about $500000 he would withdraw all those profits and start from scratch. He never let his profits compound. To me, if his trading was that good, he should have let his profits run. However, this was all probably a big part of his risk management and part of his psychological makeup. I am pretty sure that if he did compound his profits, he would most likely have suffered as a result. My point is that to be successful as a trader, you need to find a system that not only has a positive expectancy and an edge, but one that suits your psychological makeup to a tee. 
One of my trading heroes is Marty Scwartz. His battle stories make for a great read and great lessons to be learned. There is an interview here : http://www.curatedalpha.com/2011/curated-interview-with-marty-schwartz-from-market-wizards/


----------



## MichaelD

payday said:


> reinvest any surplus profits that you do have just like you would any other business
> 
> whenever he made about $500000 he would withdraw all those profits and start from scratch. He never let his profits compound. To me, if his trading was that good, he should have let his profits run.




I didn't say don't reinvest surplus profits, but you should do so in a stepwise fashion.

Say you have a trading pool of $20,000 and you make 5% per week from this per week.

Week 1: $20,000 trading 1 contract, reinvest all profits
Week 2: $21,000 trading ? contracts
etc
Scaling is blurred.


My belief is that what you should do is
Week 1: $20,000 trading 1 contract, withdraw all profits
Week 2: $20,000 trading 1 contract
.
.
Week 19: $20,000 trading 1 contract
add in $20,000 cash to trading account
Week 20: $40,000 trading 2 contracts

i.e. increase capital ONLY when you increase size and do so in proportion to the size increase.


Compounding week-to-week is great for the balance *in your trading account* but not so good for the cash you keep if/when things go pear-shaped.

The other issue is with withdrawing the lot and starting again. At a certain size, you will begin to move the market you are trading. You then become dramatically less profitable due to slippage.


----------



## payday

MichaelD said:


> I didn't say don't reinvest surplus profits, but you should do so in a stepwise fashion.




My mistake - agree with you there Michael. Increasing position size without proper risk management is fraught with disaster. Marty Schwartz says this at the end of the interview regarding position sizing :
Learn to take losses. The most important thing in making money is not letting your losses get out of hand. Also, don’t increase your position size until you have doubled or tripled your capital. Most people make the mistake of increasing their bets as soon as they start making money. That is a quick way to get wiped out.


----------



## pavilion103

Agree with that.

I thought you meant to never increase.


----------



## Wysiwyg

pavilion103 said:


> I'm going to set myself targets where I reward myself. So for example the next $10,000 profit, I can spent $500 or $1000 on whatever. Trying to make it a very small portion of profits because I want to build my capital.



Oh is that from your tax free bank account in the Seychelles?


----------



## MichaelD

payday said:


> One of my trading heroes is Marty Scwartz. His battle stories make for a great read and great lessons to be learned. There is an interview here : http://www.curatedalpha.com/2011/curated-interview-with-marty-schwartz-from-market-wizards/




*Fabulous* article. I've now had time to read it. It's uncanny how close to my story this is (just that the numbers are an order of magnitude higher than mine at this stage).


----------



## pavilion103

Wysiwyg said:


> Oh is that from your tax free bank account in the Seychelles?



No, I'm paying tax like everyone else


----------



## banco

MichaelD said:


> The other issue is with withdrawing the lot and starting again. At a certain size, you will begin to move the market you are trading. You then become dramatically less profitable due to slippage.




Is this really going to be an issue for a retail trader though?


----------



## pavilion103

Some study of Al Brooks tonight. I love how they provide the charts.


----------



## 5oclock

Hi PAV, how are you going with Als stuff?


----------



## pavilion103

5oclock said:


> Hi PAV, how are you going with Als stuff?




Very slowly lol....

I LOVE his stuff. It really resonates with me. But I read it very slowly and like to write up notes on the charts like above. 

I find his materials require a lot of concentration and reflection. It isn't a light read. But it is well worth it. Definitely one of the best best IMO.


----------



## 5oclock

PAV, thats exactly how i find it to, glad you found the charts on the website,its good to print them (as you are doing) , i got his earlier book a while ago and found that good also--much the same as the 3 volume set but not as much detail,which is good till you find what areas you need to learn up on , then go back to the more detailed books. Have you looked at any of the stuff on you tube and on the Brooks price action website?? Lots of free stuff there and its good too..also Big Mike has some good vids (on you tube --where else) of Als.


----------



## pavilion103

5oclock said:


> PAV, thats exactly how i find it to, glad you found the charts on the website,its good to print them (as you are doing) , i got his earlier book a while ago and found that good also--much the same as the 3 volume set but not as much detail,which is good till you find what areas you need to learn up on , then go back to the more detailed books. Have you looked at any of the stuff on you tube and on the Brooks price action website?? Lots of free stuff there and its good too..also Big Mike has some good vids (on you tube --where else) of Als.




I haven't looked at his other stuff yet. I'm keen to slowly make my way through as much as possible. I've been spending more time recently analysing charts and looking at live price action. The amount of reading and study I've done has declined since my first few years learning about trading (when I smashed out 30 or so books in no time). 

The two that I am putting all my focus on when I find time are
1) Todd Krueger - his weekly videos
2) Al Brooks - the 3 part book series (starting with reversals). 

I feel that most of my methodology is established, but these guys can help me get better at reading price action. Al Brooks is brilliant and when I eventualy get through all 3 books I will be a very good trader.


----------



## 5oclock

PAV, i found i was getting too bogged down in detail and was spending lots of time on it all.Sure you need the detail in the final washup, but just me i guess,i made much more progress when i looked at the books in more general context and just zoomed back in on which areas i needed more work.Its all good though,i cannot believe how much better i am at reading price now than this time last year,and its not about copying some one else, like you said they are just helping us to get better at reading the price action ourselves.


----------



## Newt

Started on "Reversals" but realised pretty quick owed to myself to start at the beginning.  Agree with the remarks that it resonates and makes good sense.  You HAVE to stop and really think about what he's saying.  Can happily spend a few hours at a time lapping this up.

I wouldn't have a bar of it (no pun intended) if he wasn't so open about low and high probability patterns.  Really comes through as a beacon for someone who has always followed medium to long term trends, but noted more and more tantalising clues in the short term price action, even just in shares.  

Love the implications for continued learning in futures and pleased his basic principles are similar to what I'd nutted out to date myself to a large extent.  Know for sure I now know enough to be dangerous


----------



## Newt

Any punters on tonight's FTSE action?
Bit of a gap up at the open that hasn't reversed to any extent.  

I would expect more movement up following through from last week, on likely small (Easter'ish) volume.  Would sit on my hands with current ranging until a break > 6645 or < 6620.

I've spent a bit of time wondering if I would have fallen for the stalled reversal 35mins after the open.  The 2nd 5min bar wasn't strong.  Looked even worse on 2min.  Would like to think I would have stayed out or managed to BE.


----------



## Lone Wolf

Newt said:


> Any punters on tonight's FTSE action?
> Bit of a gap up at the open that hasn't reversed to any extent.
> 
> I would expect more movement up following through from last week, on likely small (Easter'ish) volume.  Would sit on my hands with current ranging until a break > 6645 or < 6620.
> 
> I've spent a bit of time wondering if I would have fallen for the stalled reversal 35mins after the open.  The 2nd 5min bar wasn't strong.  Looked even worse on 2min.  Would like to think I would have stayed out or managed to BE.




I managed to sneak in a long for 10 points. Another failed long for -1 point at the recent high. Now I'm trying to get a short to stick from 6634.5. It's not going anywhere though.

Edit: Out for break even. You know to get out of your short when you start saying "Down, go down" out loud.


----------



## Lone Wolf

Newt said:


> I've spent a bit of time wondering if I would have fallen for the stalled reversal 35mins after the open.  The 2nd 5min bar wasn't strong.  Looked even worse on 2min.  Would like to think I would have stayed out or managed to BE.




I was watching it. It did look like it might reverse, and it was in an area that I might expect a reversal. But I didn't take it because I refuse to go short in a strong uptrend. I was waiting for the retest. We got the retest but that's where I exited my long and I'm not good at stop and reverse trading.

I'm wondering if Pav went short on the first retest of the high.


----------



## Newt

Lone Wolf said:


> I was watching it. It did look like it might reverse, and it was in an area that I might expect a reversal. But I didn't take it because I refuse to go short in a strong uptrend. I was waiting for the retest. We got the retest but that's where I exited my long and I'm not good at stop and reverse trading.
> 
> I'm wondering if Pav went short on the first retest of the high.




IMHO tight "V shaped" reversals in the first 1.5hrs are pretty safe.  You're unlucky to get shaken out for much worse than break even on what Al Brooks would term classic strong reversals.  It wasn't in a hurry to come back down this evening however, and that 2nd bar wasn't a strong entry.  My brain would have been worried.  Just wondering if my hand would have also stayed off the mouse button!

Good point about sticking to trades with the trend regardless LW, especially for beginners with training wheels on....


----------



## pavilion103

Some adventures for me tonight. Looking for longs. 

I took a ripper on the break of the 3rd bar of the day on the 3 min chart. 
Gave me 24 points profit. 

The fact that I didn't take 2 cost me because I tried to re-enter and lost most of those points in various spots. 
Really used open profit to try to get on with multiple contracts because I was confident of a long tonight. 

Currently in one. 

As it stands at 6642 I'm around BE for the night. 

Very annoying because if I'd taken 2 on the opening trade I would have lifted one at 25 points like I did and just trailed the other. Wouldn't have had to take another single trade. Would be 25+35 points up = 60 

Amazing how one costly moment of hesitation is and uncharacteristic given how aggressive I am on the open. 


The most I can lose for the night is 10 points.
Although I'm confident with price moving higher now. Hopefully I can make 20 or 30. We'll see. 

All over the place tonight!


----------



## Lone Wolf

Newt said:


> IMHO tight "V shaped" reversals in the first 1.5hrs are pretty safe.  You're unlucky to get shaken out for much worse than break even on what Al Brooks would term classic strong reversals.  It wasn't in a hurry to come back down this evening however, and that 2nd bar wasn't a strong entry.  My brain would have been worried.  Just wondering if my hand would have also stayed off the mouse button!
> 
> Good point about sticking to trades with the trend regardless LW, especially for beginners with training wheels on....




Another point for me is risk. I like to keep my risk per trade as small as possible. If you were to take that first reversal your stop would need to be above the high which is too far away for me personally.


----------



## pavilion103

Did everything right except take 2 contracts. 
Frustrating. 
If I'd done that it would have been a very straightforward and profitable night. 

The positive is that I am identifying these good trades on open regularly and consistently anticipating the market direction for the day. 


These setups are gold. Such low risk 4.5 points and can ride it for a long time.


----------



## Newt

I just can't get home early enough to trade that first 45mins, but interesting to see your strategy for tonight. 

My only attempt tonight would have been long at 20:24 on the break up in @6644.5, but stopped later for <4 pts loss.  Nothing else strong enough to have a go at so far.


----------



## CanOz

I'm thinking what we've seen in Europe might have been a little relief rally / short covering. The ES hasn't really agreed with the rally which also saw oil sell off half a handle. 

Thinking we might see a pullback now....


----------



## pavilion103

I agree. 
It doesn't look too strong. 
I'm done for the night. 

Disappointing given what could/should have been. 


I've repeated it over and over. 
"Get a good trade near open with 2 contracts and it saves so many headaches"


----------



## CanOz

Yeah, I'm done for a few weeks. Off to Sydney tomorrow, then Brissy on the Tuesday. Tomorrow gets me my first A380 ride, so feeling like a little kid right now....1 more sleep.

Good luck guys.


----------



## >Apocalypto<

I've pulled the plug on spot fx under the daily...... too hard for me.... 

Coming back to easy markets like WTI and Spot Gold : haha

Don't have the funds to go back to Interactive trade CL and Gold futs so will be using IC Markets CFDs over them... will post up charts and trades. I use the Floor Trader method off trading naked... I use it with price action, mainly support and resistance with trend breaks to help confirm & filter out.... 

Trading a live acc 500 big ones in there atm.... all trades will be $1 a tick/point 1 hour TF entries due to spreads.

cheers,
Joe


----------



## >Apocalypto<

CanOz said:


> Yeah, I'm done for a few weeks. Off to Sydney tomorrow, then Brissy on the Tuesday. Tomorrow gets me *my first A380 ride*, so feeling like a little kid right now....1 more sleep.
> 
> Good luck guys.




Been in two A380s Can... very nice and lots of room...


----------



## >Apocalypto<

first trade long gold... higher low off pre support trend break with ma's in a squeeze... looking for 460 cents profit.


----------



## Wysiwyg

>Apocalypto< said:


> Coming back to easy markets like WTI and Spot Gold : haha
> 
> Trading a live acc 500 big ones in there atm.... all trades will be $1 a tick/point 1 hour TF entries due to spreads.



Spreads at present on IC Markets WTI  is 5 to 6 cents and better than GO Markets CL-OIL 6 to 8 cents. There is a 1 cent difference in quoted price. At $1 per cent, IC Markets have less to make up before punt turns positive. No commissions to pay.


----------



## Wysiwyg

>Apocalypto< said:


> first trade long gold... higher low off pre support trend break with ma's in a squeeze... looking for 460 cents profit.



That could be a rising wedge in a down trend which is bearish although the price is near lower support as you mentioned, so some upside.


----------



## >Apocalypto<

Wysiwyg said:


> Spreads at present on IC Markets WTI  is 5 to 6 cents and better than GO Markets CL-OIL 6 to 8 cents. There is a 1 cent difference in quoted price. At $1 per cent, IC Markets have less to make up before punt turns positive. No commissions to pay.




that's why i went with them Wysiwyg, coming from the true spreads at IB even 5 cents was so high to me...  but IC say they drop to 4 cents in us session... gold to 30 cents.


----------



## Lone Wolf

>Apocalypto< said:


> I've pulled the plug on spot fx under the daily...... too hard for me....




Well nobody can say you didn't try. I remember reading you and tayser "Scalping FX with Cyrox Rainbow" back in 2008. I don't know if that was the best method around, but it sure was nice to look at. 

Best of luck with your move back to gold and CL


----------



## >Apocalypto<

>Apocalypto< said:


> first trade long gold... higher low off pre support trend break with ma's in a squeeze... looking for 460 cents profit.




flipped... now short... tighter stop at 1280.20... looking for 420 cents


----------



## >Apocalypto<

Lone Wolf said:


> Well nobody can say you didn't try. I remember reading you and tayser "Scalping FX with Cyrox Rainbow" back in 2008. I don't know if that was the best method around, but it sure was nice to look at.
> 
> Best of luck with your move back to gold and CL




that was  so long ago... 

thanks... just have keep my head together not create trades.


----------



## pavilion103

FTSE looking potentially toppy on larger timeframes. 

I took 2 contracts tonight. See below. I had 2 attempts at a short prior to this one which both failed. 

With this trade the first contract I trailed stupidly. Regret having it so tight. 6 lousy points and sacrificed a bigger move 

Poor trading there. 

Second one I have trailed at the orange line and will leave overnight. 

I am fairly confident that we have reached a top at the 6555 area (roughly). 
I believe this will either come off over night, or provide a very good short opportunity in the next day or two if it pushes back up. 

Anyhow, 1 contract live at the moment (Stop 6544). Will wake up tomorrow and see.


----------



## pavilion103

Uneventful.

Exited before the close at 6530


----------



## pavilion103

Last 3 trading days:

-8.5
-9.5
-5.0

Just happy not to lose too much when the down days come. Even 1 day of 25 points profit wipes these out. Small losses in comparison to my winners.


----------



## pavilion103

Looking at the bigger picture....

I think this is a little toppy.

Looking for a rejection of the 6630-40ish area for a short. The next 2 nights will tell a lot.

IF this are a is rejected then it could be a good opportunity to the short side.

If I took 2 contracts at around 6640, I'd lift one just above 6600 and let one run. There is some room to move below.


----------



## pavilion103

Apologies in the posts above where I wrote 6530, 6544.

Should be 6630 and 6644.


----------



## VSntchr

FTSE slowly marching on up..public holiday for us tomorrow so I might stay up and watch some of the markets while I do some analysis work tonight..interested to see what the usual crew are doing


----------



## Lone Wolf

I went short at 6678 at around 9:00pm. Was up 11 points or so but held since I was expecting a larger move down. Left the screen after getting stopped out for break even. I just came back now to see it down 60 points. There was even a second opportunity to get on at 6666. Never leave the screen... ever.


----------



## >Apocalypto<

Well I had a terrible start to this acc... Totally lost it.... composure and discipline... lost over half the acc very quickly.

Pulled a chuck back today/yesterday... just have to do what i did on demo and relax and wait for good trades... trying to make trades is the worst thing i do. Really have to stick to waiting for the end of the hour.

Was feeling very down, but after toughing it out getting some runs on the board feeling better.


----------



## pavilion103

Uneventful narrow range days


----------



## MichaelD

Fascinating how differently the exact same price action is perceived.

I've been away this week, plus the Australian market has only been open for 3 days, so I have been trading in "holiday mode" - a special lower risk mode I go into when I'm not able to access the market promptly at any given time. This produces about 50% of my usual return for the week, so a bit over 2% return on capital for the week was my lot.

I would have made substantially more than usual this week had I been able to trade the available price action normally and had the week been a full trading week, but no regrets here - the holiday mode exists so I can have a life away from trading.

Next week should be interesting - will we collapse downwards or continue to ascend slowly?


----------



## Lone Wolf

pavilion103 said:


> Uneventful narrow range days




Yeah, I should have expected as much since I actually had the week off and had the time to trade.

But if you can avoid taking trades in conditions that aren't suited to your style then that's a win in itself.


----------



## ftw129

MichaelD said:


> Fascinating how differently the exact same price action is perceived.




Couldn't agree more!

The small group of traders I'm affiliated with had a very mixed week.

We're all applying the same trading plan, in the same markets but that doesn't mean our trading "styles" are the same. Our results vary in the same market conditions.

This is actually a good thing for the health of the group. Otherwise there'd only be a need for one of us.

For me, I stayed out. I only make mistakes when I think that I might make mistakes. This has taught me to switch off and stay out.

Whether the markets were actually trading in "holiday mode" or not, and whether or not this would make a difference to my "normal" results, became irrelevant. The fact that I thought it _might_ was the nail in the coffin for the week.


----------



## MichaelD

ftw129 said:


> Whether the markets were actually trading in "holiday mode" or not, and whether or not this would make a difference to my "normal" results, became irrelevant. The fact that I thought it _might_ was the nail in the coffin for the week.




Just a point of clarification - as far as I was concerned, the market behaved normally this week. *I* was away on holidays. Thus, I traded differently as I am not able to as effectively manage risk when I am away from home. Thus, I take substantially less risk. If I was home, I would have had an outstanding week.

In my opinion, the market only ever goes on holidays for the 2 weeks from Dec 24th. Otherwise it's business as usual for the rest of the year.


----------



## Newt

Not having experienced a whole year of future's exposure at this point I find these recent posts very informative.  Michael and others, its facinating to hear your insights into how your (and colleagues) mind work and react.  IMHO experience it balances the ongoing futures dialogue in this thread.

Thanks,
Newt


----------



## >Apocalypto<

Newt said:


> Not having experienced a whole year of future's exposure at this point I find these recent posts very informative.  Michael and others, its facinating to hear your insights into how your (and colleagues) mind work and react.  IMHO experience it balances the ongoing futures dialogue in this thread.
> 
> Thanks,
> Newt




just stick to your rules........... that's what always brings me undone. hard part is sometimes it takes you while to realize your not following them.


----------



## Newt

It was an eye-opener the 2 trading nights I have used real funds.  Never would have picked myself for creating entries, but I learned quickly I needed to formalise my technique a lot more.  Know exactly what you mean now  

Going through a period of serious sim trading until have documented profitability using a few trade set ups currently.  No easy way I can think of to backtest futures like stocks at this point.


----------



## MichaelD

>Apocalypto< said:


> just stick to your rules........... that's what always brings me undone.






Newt said:


> It was an eye-opener the 2 trading nights I have used real funds.




I steadfastly maintain that psychology is of the utmost importance when trading as it is what will bring you undone despite getting everything else right.

At some stage, you will think you are smarter than the market. You'll then;

1. Not take a stop that you should have taken.
2. Trade with a position size too large for your account.
3. Take a trade that you shouldn't have.
4. Revenge trade to make up for points 1-3

and then

5. Realize what you have done, hopefully before you've blown yourself up.


"You're only as smart as your last trade"
"The market can remain irrational longer than you can remain solvent"


I love trading. It has taught me a great deal about myself.


----------



## >Apocalypto<

Newt said:


> It was an eye-opener the 2 trading nights I have used real funds.  Never would have picked myself for creating entries, but I learned quickly I needed to formalise my technique a lot more.  Know exactly what you mean now




such a differnt feeling the second you open a trade live... you feel in in your tummy. same thing happened once i sarted trading this new live acc... i got that feeling again. switched it off now but you sure know about it...


----------



## >Apocalypto<

MichaelD said:


> I love trading. It has taught me a great deal about myself.




thanks for the comments Mike...

you trade full time right only off the AUS200 via IG? I think i read that earlier in the thread.


----------



## MichaelD

>Apocalypto< said:


> you trade full time right only off the AUS200 via IG?




Yes, that is correct.

I also have an end of day long term trend following share portfolio for capital gain, but my day-to-day living income comes from trading the Aus200 via IG.

The FTSE and DAX have recently piqued my interest given I have just discovered [via this thread] that they don't 1:1 track the Aus200 and they have a spread of 1 tick during their opening hours and they move in a very tradable range. At the moment the time between the Aus200 close and the US open is usually very quiet for me. Not sure yet that I want to increase my activity at that time of the afternoon/evening, but I'm looking.


----------



## MichaelD

Here's a link to a link to an absolutely tremendous read on day trading. Worth every second of the read. No nonsense and tells it like it really is.

https://www.aussiestockforums.com/forums/showthread.php?t=28364


----------



## >Apocalypto<

MichaelD said:


> Here's a link to a link to an absolutely tremendous read on day trading. Worth every second of the read. No nonsense and tells it like it really is.
> 
> https://www.aussiestockforums.com/forums/showthread.php?t=28364




Top link Mic.... thanks for that. 

currently for me, 

WTI shaping up for possible sell. but it's very neutral atm imo. needs time to create a set up...  
GLD open thrust over a high not in a situation i will be looking to trade atm... last 1 hour bar closed above 1300 which has been solid resistance...


----------



## >Apocalypto<

opened a buy on GLD looking for a trend continue with more upside to 1308 stop under the last hour bar.


----------



## pavilion103

Last week I actually finished down about 50 points (gotta be honest about my losses as well as my wins). My worst week I think. It was on the back of one poor day when I lose about 35  A bit of chasing and misadventures. Ridiculously taking 2 contracts too in what is not easy conditions for my trading style. To be honest, I got carried away. Didn't post the charts as they are of no use lol. Silly little losses. Big wake up call for me. 


Tough market for my trading style! I've had to adapt. Below are some of my better trades for the night. Using simple support and resistance. Sorry I've labelled them stupidly, you'll get my point. 

Teaching me how to read price action at S/R more carefully and sharpening up my defensive trading techniques. 

Net 21 points for the night. $380 for the night. Can't complain :

Learning to "accept" smaller wins (and losses) in this market until the trending comes back.


----------



## Newt

Another tough night with limited price action.  Appreciate your honesty Pav.  Was wondering how your usual hold over a period of hours technique would have gone over the last week without strong trends.  

I found tonight a useful learning exercise.  2 silly (sim) trades where in hindsight I entered on a signal bar followed by an unfinished bar that neatly reversed on both occasions on me.  Was pleased I picked the trends up  to 10am, then back down to midday'ish fairly quickly, as you've marked on your chart.  Just didn't pick such great entries and stops

When reviewing simple reversal trades off S and R I should have been able to make 5-15 pts on shorter trades that fit my style in the period I was home and online, using the 5min chart.  

Thanks for posting,
Newt


----------



## pavilion103

Just taken another short. 6668 stop 6673.
Don't know whether touts hold overnight. I'm favoring the short side.
Moved to 6661 quickly. Tough spot. Want going to trade. Just checked it before bed and it was too good of a setup to refuse!!


----------



## Wysiwyg

Newt said:


> *I found tonight a useful learning exercise.*  2 silly (sim) trades where in *hindsight* I entered on a signal bar followed by an unfinished bar that neatly reversed on both occasions on me.  Was pleased I picked the trends up  to 10am, then back down to midday'ish fairly quickly, as you've marked on your chart.  Just didn't pick such great entries and stops



A good exercise is to stop thinking trades are wrong or mistakes. You gents don't know which way price will move so it aint no mistake. Taking the same trade at a different time and profiting does not make one right either. The market either moves in the direction of ones analysis or not.


----------



## pavilion103

Exactly.
All about good setups I high RR places. 
Trading with positive expectancy over time.


----------



## Wysiwyg

pavilion103 said:


> Exactly.
> All about good setups I high RR places.
> Trading with positive expectancy over time.



Since returning to ASF I have been reading this thread with interest. It was obvious the shorts provided some quick wins. The honesty is refreshing too as there are plenty of not-honest-with-self traders.


----------



## pavilion103

I'm here to learn. I'm gonna report wins and losses. This thread is about the journey 
Glad others are of the same mindset in here. 


OK I just closed out at support for another 9 points. 
Was tempted to hold overnight with little to lose but will pocked that win and go to bed. 
If I had time I'd watch price at this level and consider a long or wait for a short re-entry.
I'm not convinced that this definitely won't fall. Very tempted to hold, but this is a marathon and not a sprint. 30 in one night is satisfying. Would be a shame to see that fall back to 15, leaving the original stop in place, just on the gamble that it will collapse. 

I can't wait for the trends to resume, but I've learnt a heck of a lot in these markets and starting to trade them well. Focus. Focus. Focus. Patience. Discipline. 

Finished the night up 30. Very happy with that.


----------



## MichaelD

Most interesting that money was made by others on the short side.

My interpretation - snatching pebbles from in front of a steam train.

FWIW, all my money this week so far has been taken long. Very long in fact. For the first time in quite a while my risk management rules are allowing me to take fairly decent size positions instead of small sniffs. +130 so far this week.

Trading mean reversion for me is just grinding out a basic wage. Getting on the trends and letting them run (like what *might* be unfolding right now) is the sweet, sweet gravy.


Important: Do not allow my views to alter yours. I appreciate the views in here and the camaraderie, but I trade *my* way regardless of what is written here. You should trade *your* way.

ps I'll stick my neck out on the line here. The "Sell in May" crowd is utterly sure they're right at the moment, so I predict they're gonna miss out big time. IG Clients are short big time, too, which suits my thesis.


----------



## MichaelD

^Haha.

Trailing stop hit on long trade & now short. Doesn't the market read ASF?


----------



## pavilion103

Michael, I remember one week when I was well up on the short side. The market had a couple of strong downtrend days and you took longs. Each to their own. 

On the FTSE the 6680 area has been rejected a few times now and provided a great low risk short. 

FWIW of my 4 main trades, two long and two short. 

But I certainly don't see myself as standing in front of a train or any other fast moving object by taking those shorts. 

On the FTSE price struggling a little around this level, but having said that I am not going to make things up and pretend price will fall 100 points tonight.


----------



## >Apocalypto<

decent day yesterday, took a few hits then turned it around with two shorts on GLD and WTI. Oil looked like trying to set up a run but once it ran out of steam it shaped up nicely for a cont down. Long WTI atm see chart. 

if i could do it again the GLD buy was a decent entry but it was an inside bar setting up for the sellers. i should have passed.. awww hindsight.


----------



## pavilion103

FTSE should be reasonable to trade tonight. 

Some clear support and resistance levels. 

6680
6650
6620

I'd be content if it bounced off these levels and provided some nice 20 point moves.


----------



## >Apocalypto<

Closed my WTI long -10 points.


----------



## MichaelD

Now what was I saying about not standing in the way of a freight train...even if it did decide to reverse direction all of a sudden and freight train along in the opposite direction.

A very nice short day for me so far. Down the elevator shaft. Shorts ongoing and trailing with a nicely loaded up position.

IG Clients bottom picking furiously.

Me changing viewpoint furiously. Prefer being profitable to being right.


----------



## payday

Nice Michael. What are the arrows - your trailing stops?


----------



## MichaelD

payday said:


> What are the arrows - your trailing stops?




No, they are the short entries. At the time I screen captured, I had a 4 level pyramided short position, all protected with a trailing stop.

It's still going down in a straight line so it's now a 6 level pyramided short position, all protected. It's already my big outlier for the month...and it just keeps on giving.


----------



## pavilion103

Michael, do you have many losing days? Or usually just make a few thousand a per day?

From the types of figures you are posting you must make about $15,000 per week easy?

Curious how long it's taken you to get to this point? Have you been trading for many years. 

I'd love to be making that sort of money in 4-5 years.


----------



## skc

MichaelD said:


> No, they are the short entries. At the time I screen captured, I had a 4 level pyramided short position, all protected with a trailing stop.
> 
> It's still going down in a straight line so it's now a 6 level pyramided short position, all protected. It's already my big outlier for the month...and it just keeps on giving.




Nice one Michael. I was thinking of your period entry approach when the market just kept going south today. It's been a while since we last saw a uni-directional 80pt range day from open.


----------



## MichaelD

pavilion103 said:


> Michael, do you have many losing days?
> 
> Curious how long it's taken you to get to this point?






skc said:


> It's been a while since we last saw a uni-directional 80pt range day from open.




I prefer to look at weekly time frames rather than days. I pay myself weekly unless I have a losing week. I have about 4 losing weeks per year where I don't get paid and carry the loss to the next week.

I've been long term trend trading since 2006. Have been dabbling with the index for years, but finally got serious about it 2 years ago. Blew up 3 times over the years. Learned the appropriate lessons. Still here.

I do not recall ever having an outlier day like today on the short side. 8 tranches now, 7 protected. *May* be bottoming. The only potential problem now is slippage on the exit.


----------



## MichaelD

Taken out of the trade by the wiggling. No slippage.

Still going down, so back short again.

Now it's time to do the bookkeeping for the big trade. I'm gonna enjoy that.


----------



## >Apocalypto<

MichaelD said:


> Taken out of the trade by the wiggling. No slippage.
> 
> Still going down, so back short again.
> 
> Now it's time to do the bookkeeping for the big trade. I'm gonna enjoy that.




VG trading Mic thanks for the posts.


----------



## MichaelD

MichaelD said:


> Now it's time to do the bookkeeping for the big trade. I'm gonna enjoy that.




Once of my best results in a very long time, and tellingly it was in the OPPOSITE direction to where I thought the market would go just a few hours ago.

+5.8% of total trading capital.
+19.6% of margin in account. [no I don't really count it this way, but I'm on a bit of a high at the moment and need to get it out of my system before I do something stupid]

Not too shabby for a few hours work.

Note: NOT SKILL. Just merely the random movements of the market aligning spectacularly well with my methodology.


btw, the little blowoff short closed at just better than breakeven and I now have a tiny long in play.

Must...remember...."you're only as good as your last trade".


----------



## payday

MichaelD said:


> Note: NOT SKILL. Just merely the random movements of the market aligning spectacularly well with my methodology.
> 
> 
> 
> 
> Must...remember...."you're only as good as your last trade".




Well done Michael. I really like your mind set. It is definitely well suited to trading. Stay humble but also reward yourself. Keep up the good work.


----------



## payday

pavilion103 said:


> I'd love to be making that sort of money in 4-5 years.




Pav - in my experience when someone "gets it" their results tend to go exponential. Keep plugging away. There is no better way to get good at this game than screen time. From my perspective, you have the dedication and love of the game to really succeed. Just don't give up when the inevitable drawdowns occur, and don't get cocky when you have a run of wins.


----------



## MichaelD

payday said:


> Pav - in my experience when someone "gets it" their results tend to go exponential.



I agree. The *process* is what intrinsically interests me, and perfecting the *process*. It's like the most magnificent and most fun computer game I've ever played. And at the end of each trade/week, a nice little bonus of playing this most fascinating game is that $ consistently appear in my account.


Back to less metaphysical topics, however. I am rapidly becoming enamoured of the IG Client Sentiment indicator. The Aus200 Cash has been steadily meandering upwards for the last 8 hours. Almost ruler straight upwards. So why is everybody selling into this ruler straight uptrend? (I'm not - I'm just quietly building a smallish long pyramid). I'm starting to think that this indicator is a summary of all the people I'm taking money off.


----------



## pavilion103

Mixed trading tonight. Finished down 10. Again took too many trades. 
For the week so far I'm net up 20. 

Main re-occurring lessons

1) Be patient and wait for the one (usually) best setup of the night that sticks out to me.

2) When in that, follow my plan. Stop to BE as soon as practical and then trail according to plan. Probably best for me to even walk away from the screen at the beginning of the trade once at BE because I can only stuff it up by exiting stupidly and not according to plan. 



I did get on the good trade at 6681. That was the one tonight. 
I exited stupidly and then found myself trying to get in and out. 
Shot myself in the foot after I'd taken the good trade. 
Had 2 contracts and didn't make much on those trades. 

Net 10 is not much damage thankfully. 

Getting better and better each night. Refining my thoughts and the process. 

I've proven I can make very good money when it's trending. 

Now I'm proving that I can hold my nerve and not throw away money when it's not quite going my way. 


It's all about the bigger picture for me. It's all about what sort of trader I will be in 12-24 months. If I can make good profit in the meantime, as I am, then that's a bonus.  

All tracking well according to plan


----------



## Newt

I would have found it very hard to enter anywhere tonight.  Agreed 6681 was a good trade, but I would have been too defensive to take it.  Reversal at open would have suited, but wasn't home then.  

The rest of the night trading slowly up with trend line support, but choppy, was tough to get into, and I wouldn't have been game to try. 

Possibly breaking down now.  I'm still getting a lot of value out of very pedantically defining my playbook for entries and learning to stay out until recognising those.  Feel this is something that needs more work to reinforce all the things that need to be there to pull the trigger without agonising.  Writing up the "trades" I take each night, and those I should have based on my playbook (whether successful or not).  Until I can reliably demonstate profitability and sticking to the plan I'll keep doing this.  

I wouldn't normally be so pedantic, but your notes along the way in this thread put me to shame Pav, and keep inspiring more effort.  Besides, its damned fun learning!  

I really want to be successful at this and won't give up easily learning how to ride the ups and downs.


----------



## pavilion103

Newt, I love your enthusiasm and sincerity. 
Apart from personal interest, the reason I bother putting up my private analysis and discussing it is for people like yourself. 


Here is the trade that I took last night, but aborted it early on (I think 6690ish - silly). 
This is how I would have trailed it (purple lines). 
One would have been a trailing stop. The other contract wider. 
One would have ended up being profit take near the high of the opening bar. The other the trail, but taking profit around the same point. 
50 points the net result from 2 contracts. Damn shame. 

The only reason I didn't hold was because of stupid silly losses that I'd incurred earlier in the day. Trying to "make them up" by taking profit of 10 points was ridiculous. Then some ins and outs on the way up without too much to report!





Tonight the level I'm looking at it 6710ish for a long if it shapes up.


----------



## VSntchr

Interesting PAV thanks.

Just looking at the chart posted, I see that you would take the first contract off at the days previous high...if you weren't already in the trade - would the break above this level have triggered a long with a tight stop just below it?


----------



## pavilion103

VSntchr said:


> Interesting PAV thanks.
> 
> Just looking at the chart posted, I see that you would take the first contract off at the days previous high...if you weren't already in the trade - would the break above this level have triggered a long with a tight stop just below it?




No I wouldn't take a breakout there because the risk of a false breakout is quite high in that area (above the initial high of the day). 

What I would look for (as I am tonight), is for price to test the 6700-6710 area and then setup for another long, in a similar way that I did at the 6680 level. 

I generally don't like trading breakouts. I'd rather take a long off support and a short off resistance and then hold for as much of the move as possible. 

It makes life so much easier to get on one like last night at 6680 and then get the stop to BE and not have to stress about reading the chart to try and get in again. Getting a good entry near the high (short) or low (long) saves a lot of work and stress!


----------



## pavilion103

Would love to get the thoughts of experienced traders i.e. Michael, Canoz (not here  and others. 

My thoughts on the S&P 500


Not definitive but this is what I'm thinking. The reaction of price around here and the highs is crucial. Leaning towards a rejection of the high and turn down from there, but will monitor it bar by bar. 


This is my email to kid_hustler

Taking a look at the S&P 500 chart. It doesn't look particularly bullish to me in terms of the months ahead. 

Yesterday's strength will ensure that price is pushed up a little longer and doesn't come off yet.

21st March was a standout volume day which pushed to new highs and then reversed down. Very bearish imo. It then pushes up in unconvincing fashion and the ultra wide down days on 4th April and 10th April paint a bearish picture. As expected after such a bearish sell-off price has another push up. A few bearish days as the push up comes to a halt. Then yesterday's reversal bar which may see a little push up again. Not to the absolute highs I don't think. 

Watching to see this next little push up and how strong or weak it looks. 
IF it fails to reach the highs and a couple of strong bearish days appear, that is when I'll start looking for a longer term position move on the FTSE. I'll be monitoring the S&P closely from here because I reckon we at a critical time in the next 1-2 months.


----------



## pavilion103

FTSE looking for a long around

6710 (would need to push up first then back down and test this area)
6695
6680

Some of those better than others.


----------



## MichaelD

Everyone thinks the market is going to go down. Therefore I am bullish.

My view of where the market is going to go is more-or-less irrelevant to how I trade, though - quite clearly proven yesterday (!).

Today, the market action was fairly choppy and indecisive. I've been both long and short today. I made a little more money short than long.

Tomorrow - who knows. Trade what you see, not what you believe.


----------



## pavilion103

My entry tonight. 
A bit different to usual, but a low risk in a decent spot. 

My only concern is where the high on the daily chart is. It won't be free air for too long! No smooth sailing.


----------



## pavilion103

Not expecting a big move even if this does keep doing up. But low risk so worth a go. 

Maximum risk in play is now 2 points. We'll see where it goes from here.


----------



## pavilion103

Stop BE. 
No reference points ahead. 
Hard to trade unless I see supply come in or happy with the move.


----------



## pavilion103

Could run out of puff. Upthrust. Noticeably higher volume. 
Just playing by ear now.


----------



## pavilion103

Heading out. Won't be home to take a short dammit


----------



## >Apocalypto<

messed around on 30 min last night with no indis just going off LL HL HH LH's didn't go so well... so decided to go back to the tried and true. also missed that drive rally on WTI... seeing all your charts on here indyless makes me wonder if i am on the wrong track .... 

one trade so far today short on GOLD ent bar has the red dot. LH minor support break low. 

GLD in a minor rally could set up a fade later.. 
WTI driffting lower all day not close to a set up for me atm.

Balance is at $430.10 slowly getting back to starting point.


----------



## Lone Wolf

>Apocalypto< said:


> seeing all your charts on here indyless makes me wonder if i am on the wrong track ....




Always use a clean chart for posting. The secret special indicators are on a different chart.


----------



## pavilion103

Took a short. Lost 4 points. 

Off for the night.


----------



## >Apocalypto<

Lone Wolf said:


> Always use a clean chart for posting. The secret special indicators are on a different chart.




hahaha


----------



## Lone Wolf

pavilion103 said:


> My entry tonight.
> A bit different to usual, but a low risk in a decent spot.
> 
> My only concern is where the high on the daily chart is. It won't be free air for too long! No smooth sailing.




You mentioned the resistance on the daily, where do you personally see the resistance being?

Earlier you suggested taking the trade off at resistance, today you took a trade at 6731 and held into the daily chart resistance looking for a longer move. Do you see the daily chart resistance level different to me, or did you give it less weight because we're in a strong uptrend?


----------



## >Apocalypto<

2nd short.

took a short on the white bar on it's close marked with red dot. closed this trade as it hit that support point a few times and stuck. this is a decent area. 

WTI setting up for a sell, planing to take it on the close of the current bar.


----------



## peter2

I hope you got out of the way before the scheduled US GDP data release.  
The lower than expected GDP number really spooked the markets.

Aussie session = light blue (session High and Low are shown by the box)
UK session = light green
US session = light tan


----------



## >Apocalypto<

peter2 said:


> I hope you got out of the way before the scheduled US GDP data release.
> The lower than expected GDP number really spooked the markets.
> 
> Aussie session = light blue (session High and Low are shown by the box)
> UK session = light green
> US session = light tan




i am short oil... didn't rock it too much but spot gold went wild.


----------



## barney

>Apocalypto< said:


> WTI setting up for a sell, planing to take it on the close of the current bar.




Hope you got on board that Joe ..... oil has been belted in the last hour


----------



## >Apocalypto<

barney said:


> Hope you got on board that Joe ..... oil has been belted in the last hour




hey Barn,

I went short on the 10pm close... had to ride out the rally... closed now for 20 pts... bed time for me & good day so finishing up.


----------



## barney

>Apocalypto< said:


> hey Barn,
> 
> I went short on the 10pm close... had to ride out the rally... closed now for 20 pts... bed time for me & good day so finishing up.


----------



## MichaelD

pavilion103 said:


> No I wouldn't take a breakout there because the risk of a false breakout is quite high in that area (above the initial high of the day).




I trade both breakouts and mean reversion.


Here's some food for thought for all on this thread & IMO an important point about having a decent sized pot to play with.


Ponder Point #1

What's the difference in risk between;

1 contract with a 100 point stop
10 contracts with a 10 point stop
100 contracts with a 1 point stop

(excluding liquidity issues)


Ponder Point #2

Which trade is most likely to be stopped out?


Ponder Point #3

Which trade is most likely to capture a big move?


----------



## cynic

MichaelD said:


> I trade both breakouts and mean reversion.
> 
> 
> Here's some food for thought for all on this thread & IMO an important point about having a decent sized pot to play with.
> 
> 
> Ponder Point #1
> 
> What's the difference in risk between;
> 
> 1 contract with a 100 point stop
> 10 contracts with a 10 point stop
> 100 contracts with a 1 point stop
> 
> (excluding liquidity issues)
> 
> 
> Ponder Point #2
> 
> Which trade is most likely to be stopped out?
> 
> 
> Ponder Point #3
> 
> Which trade is most likely to capture a big move?




It's funny you should raise this point at this time. My grail strategy currently has a little over 120 positions of varying sizes open, and I'd definitely agree that the expectancy of my strategy is far easier to achieve with the quiver of many small arrows rather than the single large shaft.


----------



## MichaelD

Very choppy day. Not like the beautiful downtrend earlier this week. One lacklustre long to begin the session and then in and out of shorts. Only one of the trades was pyramided. Probably captured about 40% of the move in total which is less than I like to get, but such is life. Lots of interruptions to my day for not all that fantastic a return.

Now have a small long order sitting and waiting to see what happens next.


----------



## kid hustlr

mayday or something in Europe today pavvy don't think ftse is affected but I know a lot of Europe is shut so maybe expect a quiet open??


----------



## pavilion103

Thanks man


----------



## euribored

MichaelD said:


> Very choppy day. Not like the beautiful downtrend earlier this week. One lacklustre long to begin the session and then in and out of shorts. Only one of the trades was pyramided. Probably captured about 40% of the move in total which is less than I like to get, but such is life. Lots of interruptions to my day for not all that fantastic a return.
> 
> Now have a small long order sitting and waiting to see what happens next.




Hi MichaelD,

Been attempting to trade the SPI for a short while now, and following you on this thread. You seem to have a solid method, and so I wanted to ask you a question on you on your entries if you don't mind?

I pretty much follow trend lines, and breaks (Ã  la Straight Line Approach on ET). Going in to today, I couldn't really see a set up that could get me into an early short position, so how are you choosing the initial direction? If I wait until the market tells me, then this week I have been getting in after missing a good chunk, as early trend lines are near vertical. The only way I see to enter is to wait for a retrace, and then sell it on a break of the recent low as confirmation of the continuing down move. But this is not ideal as you are then open to false breaks.

Any input is very welcome, and keep up the good work.

Regards,


----------



## MichaelD

euribored said:


> so how are you choosing the initial direction?




I don't.

Basically, I have Buy Stops above market price and Sell Stops below market price.

Whatever gets hit I manage accordingly.

The *secret sauce* that makes my trading work is in the fine details of;
 - position sizing
 - initial stop management
 - trailing stop management
 - pyramiding

(and I'm only ever going to give vague hints about those parts of my trading as therein lies my edge)


This is very different to the more conventional methods of risk control as generally demonstrated in this thread which is to bet on a bounce off support/resistance and use a very tight stop to control the loss if the bet is wrong.

I use a very different stop methodology which basically leaves the initial stop quite wide, but is a *tiny* position size compared to what I end up with. The net effect is the same, though - a low risk entry relative to overall trading capital. The bonus to me is that I get to win regardless of whether it turns out to be a mean reversion or a breakout.

The breakout trades are the "spectacular" ones which I have tended to post here. The mean reversion trades just grind out a steady cashflow.


Basically, most traders focus on the setup and the entry. I find these to be the least important part of my methodology.


----------



## CanOz

MichaelD said:


> Basically, most traders focus on the setup and the entry. I find these to be the least important part of my methodology.




Agree, with the caveat that I like to get the best price so I take as little heat as possible....

Also, I'm quite willing to give away my methodology as I feel no one will apply the same as me anyway....you need to have your own way...

Enjoying Australia, what a lucky country!


----------



## >Apocalypto<

One trade today,

Short GLD, nice support break. making a fresh low. sold at the close of the bar with red dot. now price moved down to support and started to bounce.. i got butterflies in my tummy and bailed... not good (worried about money I don't own) that's one's dust now. 

WTI... seems like it's trying to bottom but could also set up for another test down.... i have a feeling somethings coming waiting on it atm.

Gold just busted down... any way think my soft thinking being scared is a reason to sit out of more trades tonight.


----------



## MichaelD

CanOz said:


> I like to get the best price so I take as little heat as possible....



This was something that initially puzzled me when I started posting in this thread (as it was the opposite of what I do) but I now understand and agree.

Since most traders' initial bet is directional, the tighter the stop the better the risk:reward ratio can be.

I skew the risk:reward ratio in my favour in a different way.


----------



## Wysiwyg

MichaelD said:


> I trade both breakouts and mean reversion.
> 
> 
> Here's some food for thought for all on this thread & IMO an important point about having a decent sized pot to play with.
> 
> 
> Ponder Point #1
> 
> What's the difference in risk between;m
> 
> 1 contract with a 100 point stop



Dollar risk is the same for all three but this one is highly unlikely to be whipsawn allowing space and time for the price to move in our favour.  Hard to ensure trade moves in our favour straight off the bat.


> 10 contracts with a 10 point stop



Dollar risk the same but more likely to be whipsawn out of trade.


> 100 contracts with a 1 point stop



Dollar risk the same but highly likely to be whipsawn out of trade.


----------



## >Apocalypto<

happy to report, i have turned my bad start into a profit in a week. 

not big noting but I'm happy i have been able to come back from over 54% down... could have held my last two shorts on GLD and WTI. i am suffering from over winning from the last two days... so think it's time to have small break till next week. i was very down after the first day's with this acc.... feeling better... sticking to my rules and waiting for decent trades that fit my rules... 

GLD is saying short atm will have a look at it at the end of this hours close... 

statement attached....


----------



## MichaelD

cynic said:


> the expectancy of my strategy is far easier to achieve with the quiver of many small arrows rather than the single large shaft.






Wysiwyg said:


> Dollar risk the same but highly likely to be whipsawn out of trade.




Allowing a very small initial position with a relatively wide stop coupled with aggressive pyramiding when a trade does go in the desired direction creates a very interesting pattern of trade returns which is both extremely satisfying and which can be very stressful at the same time.

How it trades is:

-> There is a high win-loss ratio. This can be emotionally very gratifying.
-> There are regular large outlier wins. The big moves are captured. Extremely pleasing.
-> The losses tend to linger in the portfolio *but most importantly* they always remain very small in $ value compared to the winners. They're annoying to look at, though.

In contrast, trading with a very tight stop sees:

-> A much lower win-loss ratio. More frustrating emotionally. Getting stopped out happens a lot.
-> Outlier wins are present, but less frequently. Many potential outlier trades are simply cut due to the tight initial stop and so you watch them take off without you. Frustrating.
-> Losses disappear very quickly and are very small. No annoying itches to scratch.

Both methodologies can have a positive expectancy.

Below are my actual March trading results for consideration.
Index start: 5420 Index end: 5372

Note the very pleasant Profit Factor achieved.

Would be most interested in comparing others' results for the same period.


----------



## pavilion103

Not too active this week. 

6680 was the trade to hold.

We spoke a bit about it earlier in the week.

Might do charts if I get time.

Interesting notes on a low risk way to capture a move from a pullback after a break out of a range. In this spot holding for a few days can make sense once risk is eliminated.


----------



## cynic

MichaelD said:


> Allowing a very small initial position with a relatively wide stop coupled with aggressive pyramiding when a trade does go in the desired direction creates a very interesting pattern of trade returns which is both extremely satisfying and which can be very stressful at the same time.
> 
> How it trades is:
> 
> -> There is a high win-loss ratio. This can be emotionally very gratifying.
> -> There are regular large outlier wins. The big moves are captured. Extremely pleasing.
> -> The losses tend to linger in the portfolio *but most importantly* they always remain very small in $ value compared to the winners. They're annoying to look at, though.
> 
> In contrast, trading with a very tight stop sees:
> 
> -> A much lower win-loss ratio. More frustrating emotionally. Getting stopped out happens a lot.
> -> Outlier wins are present, but less frequently. Many potential outlier trades are simply cut due to the tight initial stop and so you watch them take off without you. Frustrating.
> -> Losses disappear very quickly and are very small. No annoying itches to scratch.
> 
> Both methodologies can have a positive expectancy.
> 
> Below are my actual March trading results for consideration.
> Index start: 5420 Index end: 5372
> ...




Bravo Michael!

Yes! Pyramiding with leverage can produce sensational results provided that risk is well managed! 

Just be aware that there are certain logistical risks that can be difficult to manage. 

I once had the upsetting experience of being locked into open exposure during a sudden market reversal.
(The circuit breakers triggered and the exchange closed prematurely and did not reopen until the next day). 
There was a sizable gap (approx 4-5%) before I was able to close my positions. Needless to say I lost the AUD equivalent of a low six figure sum and lots of sleep on that occasion. 
I believe that some clients of MFG had even greater challenges in respect to management of open exposure subsequent to MFG's sudden demise. 

I sincerely hope that you never have to contend with such nightmarish events.


> Note the very pleasant Profit Factor achieved.
> 
> Would be most interested in comparing others' results for the same period.




I could produce statistics for my closed trades for that month, however, given that my trades have durations ranging from minutes to months I doubt that it will provide a meaningful comparison. 

For example, the profit factor for my closed April DAX trades is 20.16 whereas for March it is only a measly 1.38!!


----------



## pavilion103

Tonight I've taken a long.

6667 
Stop 6659

Not sure if this will keep pushing up but a nice spot on open to take it.


----------



## LinRegSlope

cynic said:


> Yes! Pyramiding with leverage can produce sensational results provided that risk is well managed!




This is the biggest issue I have, whether to pyramid out or not (I never pyramid in). My tolerance for losing trades is exceptionally low, so I tend to cut a couple of contracts very early on. Great when the trade doesn't work out, however when it runs you only get to take advantage of part of it which is quite frustrating.


----------



## MichaelD

I'm bowing out for tonight. My head's been in a very bad place for trading all day today. I haven't been able to overcome the effects of the week I've had. I've been wanting to take trades of excessive size in stupid places and it's been a massive battle to just sit on my hands and follow my plan and not wreck things.

Last time I got so cocky the market quickly brought me back down to earth.

Clearly it's time to step away from the screen for a bit and get some perspective back.

Happy trading all. See you next week.


----------



## pavilion103

Take a well earnt rest mate


----------



## >Apocalypto<

Good idea Micheal. 

when u feel like that best thing to do is turn the screen off. NFP tonight I think so good night to have a break.

Tonight for me 1 win 1 loss. Gold shaping up for a buy at the end of this hour  not taking GLD buy, thinking i will sit out of live trading tonight due to NFPs... might take some demo trades at release. 

The GLD loss was a decent ent new low but for wathever reason reversed closed manuel on the second time it failed to go lower with a rally.

WTI Long HL with a small range break.

Balance up to 534.69 now profit of 33.87.


----------



## pavilion103

16.5 points.
Exit 6783.5


----------



## kid hustlr

London holiday today!??


----------



## DeepState

kid hustlr said:


> London holiday today!??




Japan and UK have bank holidays on 5 May


----------



## pavilion103

Yep night off


----------



## >Apocalypto<

one trade so far today/tonight.

buy on WTI made a trend break took profit once it hit next resistance... see if any others come along.


----------



## Newt

What's a "bank holiday" exactly?  You live and learn.  Never heard of that one!


----------



## DeepState

Newt said:


> What's a "bank holiday" exactly?  You live and learn.  Never heard of that one!




Literally...banks are closed.  No financial movements can happen which involves the banks.  Everybody has a day off in the world of finance involving banks and trading...given that trading can't really happen without the banks.  Happens in Aust as well.  NSW/ACT Bank holiday 4 August, for example. But because banking can still happen elsewhere in Australia, it's just a quiet day as the trading/funds community tends to take the day off as well in NSW.

The UK and Japan Bank Holidays are national.

Bank holidays are also called spontaneously when there is a crisis.  This allows the authorities some time to figure out what is going on, merge, recap or close banks (and, now, other financial institutions) without the pressure of doing so whilst crowds line up around the block with everyone going apesh*t and running around with their hair on fire.  These act as circuit breakers and are typically coupled with extensive liquidity provision from the relevant central bank in some form.


----------



## Newt

Thanks DeepState.  You'd think every other industry would have thought to demand a day off by now too!


----------



## >Apocalypto<

Had a V nice day yesterday... getting back to the consistency i was finding on the sim acc. 

1st buy on WTI was a simple trend/range break... to higher point base/res.
2nd buy tried a entry i look at for a tail low rejection selling candle that bounces a bit off previous resistance or support... these work great in down tends but in uptrends can be dicey... i was lucky on this one. as it was a set up for a bigger trend break. once it failed a few times to go higher i closed. 
3rd WTI sell, trade 2 was the set up to take this as it broke the trend. i was also lucky my TP was hit it was basically the low. 

overall a bit of luck but based off sound idea's that show past winners.

atm looking at GLD lower high in now waiting for a sell set up.


----------



## pavilion103

Great night so far. Reading this market well tonight.


----------



## pavilion103

And a long at the 6750 support level, but only a very quick trade. 2 contracts. I think 16 points profit in total for them. 

Couldn't be happier with that trading tonight. 
Well, except for missing the 20 point move on the open. 

I could have held this last one a bit longer but 
1) It's time for best (most important point)
2) It might have another 5-10 points in it but beyond that it's risky with the daily trend being down thus far. 


Difficult market conditions for me the last few weeks. It is definitely turning me into a better trader. 
Very satisfying evening.


----------



## >Apocalypto<

softer day today... couple wins couple losses... no real mistakes... just how it panned out for me. 

sell on GLD for fade confirmation of a lower high.  but it put in to more higher hours before it came off. 

small loss on WTI buy was managed in error as i was also long GLD cut that wti long short when i should have let it follow through. bad management there. 

the Gold sell cut early due to it's bounce and fail to move lower though a previous high... still watching GLD atm for a short.. if it can break the minor base i will look to sell. having a some issue atm getting through 1305.


----------



## >Apocalypto<

>Apocalypto< said:


> softer day today... couple wins couple losses... no real mistakes... just how it panned out for me.
> 
> sell on GLD for fade confirmation of a lower high.  but it put in to more higher hours before it came off.
> 
> small loss on WTI buy was managed in error as i was also long GLD cut that wti long short when i should have let it follow through. bad management there.
> 
> the Gold sell cut early due to it's bounce and fail to move lower though a previous high... still watching GLD atm for a short.. if it can break the minor base i will look to sell. having a some issue atm getting through 1305.




two more trades today/tonight...

sold gold but closed minor profit as it bailed up again off 1305.... it's a hot point atm.

bought wti closed for 17 points thing rocketed after i closed but o well that's life....

finished up 18 points today so better then the -1 i was going to close the day at.... 

on to tomorrow.


----------



## VSntchr

pavilion103 said:


> And a long at the 6750 support level, but only a very quick trade. 2 contracts. I think 16 points profit in total for them.
> 
> Couldn't be happier with that trading tonight.
> Well, except for missing the 20 point move on the open.
> 
> I could have held this last one a bit longer but
> 1) It's time for *best* (most important point)
> 2) It might have another 5-10 points in it but beyond that it's risky with the daily trend being down thus far.
> 
> 
> Difficult market conditions for me the last few weeks. It is definitely turning me into a better trader.
> Very satisfying evening.
> 
> View attachment 57878




1) Indeed it was time for *BED* lol


----------



## pavilion103

VSntchr said:


> 1) Indeed it was time for BED lol




Haha. No more evidence needed that it was time for bed.


----------



## pavilion103

My thoughts and what I"m keeping an eye open for tonight.


----------



## pavilion103

Is anyone out there on the FTSE tonight?

Anyone share similar/different thoughts?


----------



## pavilion103

Some more notes from last night. 
Trading intraday resistance.


----------



## RazzaDazzla

pavilion103 said:


> Is anyone out there on the FTSE tonight?
> 
> Anyone share similar/different thoughts?







Not directly FTSE related, but I've been short the SPI since 5494.

My reason for entering was bearish divergence on daily, weekly and monthly time frames. I got stopped out early a couple of times as the daily's just kept going up despite the divergence.

The move down has been choppy, though the down moves are more impulsive than the super choppy up moves.

There's no bullish divergence yet on this 2 hour chart, so I'll likely keep holding and hopefully see support at around 5340 revisited. If we get down there, I'll likely take half or full profits.

I might run a trailing SaR stop just in case this thing decides to make a significant up move.


----------



## VSntchr

Purely watching out of interest PAV, I have noticed that FTSE has found some old support (slightly above this level atm) from 1/5/14...doesn't look like reaching up to give you the short entry as yet..


----------



## pavilion103

I got short at 6748. 

Triangle forming here. Interesting to see if it breaks lower or not. 

No huge break down on open.


----------



## barney

pavilion103 said:


> I got short at 6748.
> 
> Triangle forming here. Interesting to see if it breaks lower or not.
> 
> No huge break down on open.





Got a bit burned chasing shorts on the Dax tonight   ... everything looks short term Bullish on the Index's at the moment (very short term that is )  ..... Short tonight's highs if you can spot them would be a safe trade imo 

Currently Short the GBP/USD, but its hovering around highs so there will be some volatility b4 it sorts out the next leg/direction.


----------



## Market Sniper

barney said:


> Got a bit burned chasing shorts on the Dax tonight   ... everything looks short term Bullish on the Index's at the moment (very short term that is )  ..... Short tonight's highs if you can spot them would be a safe trade imo
> 
> Currently Short the GBP/USD, but its hovering around highs so there will be some volatility b4 it sorts out the next leg/direction.




Hey Barney

Do you usually trade the DAX? Ive been having a bit of a look at it lately and it is very jumpy with the volume.

Cheers


----------



## pavilion103

Trick night tonight!


----------



## pavilion103

Down 15 points (about 4 trades in total trying to get 2 contracts on)

Just took another 6748, stop 6752.5 (one contract)


Contextually I like the setup. 

I still feel the shortside is where it is heading. 

Fingers crossed for this one.


----------



## VSntchr

Support being tested now PAV..good luck on the short..


----------



## barney

Market Sniper said:


> Hey Barney
> 
> Do you usually trade the DAX? Ive been having a bit of a look at it lately and it is very jumpy with the volume.
> 
> Cheers




Howdy MS  ..... I love the Dax  .... but I shouldn't trade it   ..... When I use it as a reference against other Index's it is great, but as soon as I try and take cash out of it I usually get burned.   I initially set the FTSE short against the Dax long early tonight which was the correct analysis .... For some reason I sabotaged myself  ... yet again!    It's not really funny but hopefully it will teach me to respect price action first rather than some assumption that things are changing when they aren't.


----------



## pavilion103

pavilion103 said:


> Down 15 points (about 4 trades in total trying to get 2 contracts on)  Just took another 6748, stop 6752.5 (one contract)  Contextually I like the setup.  I still feel the shortside is where it is heading.  Fingers crossed for this one.




Out BE


----------



## CanOz

barney said:


> Howdy MS  ..... I love the Dax  .... but I shouldn't trade it   ..... When I use it as a reference against other Index's it is great, but as soon as I try and take cash out of it I usually get burned.   I initially set the FTSE short against the Dax long early tonight which was the correct analysis .... For some reason I sabotaged myself  ... yet again!    It's not really funny but hopefully it will teach me to respect price action first rather than some assumption that things are changing when they aren't.




 Are you trading the dax or the German 30? If it's the cfd, are the spreads affecting you? 

Personally I have more success being able to use the dom to get the best price, it's a hard market, fast and thin....can't imagine using a cfd...good luck though...


----------



## barney

CanOz said:


> Are you trading the dax or the German 30? If it's the cfd, are the spreads affecting you?
> 
> Personally I have more success being able to use the dom to get the best price, it's a hard market, fast and thin....can't imagine using a cfd...good luck though...




Howdy Can, 

Trading the Dax30 on Axitrader MT4 platform and German30 CFD on City Index  ..... Spreads are good at 1 tick ... No DOM of course, and only synthetic volume only on the MT4  ... no volume on the CFD's

Analysed the price action well early tonight then traded it like a boofhead   Only started trading Index's recently to supplement my Forex losses lol  ..... Plenty of room for improvement


----------



## pavilion103

FTSE analysis. 


The last time price was around this level - 24th January 2014


----------



## pavilion103

FTSE analysis - current daily chart

Food for thought....


----------



## Caveroute

This is what I see on my plate ....


----------



## pavilion103

Very nice analysis. 

Where have you been? Haven't seen you posting much!


----------



## pavilion103

In light of the above posts of the market analysis. I've decided that tonight was a time to be aggressive. 

3 contracts with an average price @ 6788

The plan is to hold 2. 

I just took one off at 6775 which was the next support level down from the last couple of trading days. 

The 13 point profit then covers the risk on the initial 2 contracts because I want to hold at this time. 

I'm prepared to give back the rest because I believe we could be at a critical point on the longer term chart. 


Who knows if this will push back higher again but ideally if this keeps falling. I'd love to leave one as a position trade and maybe take one off a bit further down. 

This is all best case scenario and I could well get taken out at my initial stop!


----------



## Caveroute

pavilion103 said:


> In light of the above posts of the market analysis. I've decided that tonight was a time to be aggressive.
> 
> 3 contracts with an average price @ 6788
> 
> The plan is to hold 2.
> 
> I just took one off at 6775 which was the next support level down from the last couple of trading days.
> 
> The 13 point profit then covers the risk on the initial 2 contracts because I want to hold at this time.
> 
> I'm prepared to give back the rest because I believe we could be at a critical point on the longer term chart.
> 
> 
> Who knows if this will push back higher again but ideally if this keeps falling. I'd love to leave one as a position trade and maybe take one off a bit further down.
> 
> This is all best case scenario and I could well get taken out at my initial stop!




Hi Pav, I actually posted the wrong file, the file proper had more detail but not to worry the premise remains the same. 

Were still range bound, so lets see how things unfold. Patience is the key.

ah patience ............

I've been around btw, just spend more of my time on 'price action' sites, we all talk the same language there.


----------



## pavilion103

Net result of 4 points profits haha.

Not too exciting tonight!


----------



## cynic

pavilion103 said:


> Net result of 4 points profits haha.
> 
> Not too exciting tonight!




That's okay Pav. You can always find plenty of excitement on rides at your local theme park. Trading is better reserved for income generation.

I find that too much market excitement tends to murder my profitability. 
My DAX grail was thoroughly challenged this past week. 
Just about every time that Draghi opens his fat gob, my open P&L suddenly drops 4 figures! 
I could certainly do with a lot less of that type of excitement!


----------



## pavilion103

cynic said:


> That's okay Pav. You can always find plenty of excitement on rides at your local theme park. Trading is better reserved for income generation.  I find that too much market excitement tends to murder my profitability. My DAX grail was thoroughly challenged this past week. Just about every time that Draghi opens his fat gob, my open P&L suddenly drops 4 figures! I could certainly do with a lot less of that type of excitement!



  I dunno.... Making profit excites me


----------



## pavilion103

Friday's initial setup analysis.


----------



## pavilion103

Spent a number of hours today analysing opening setups and reading Al Brooks. 

I've gotta say in terms of futures trading, Al Brooks Reversals book is hands down the best I've read. Specifically reading about trading the open (about 100 pages), amazing. Much of his work confirms exactly what I've discovered through studying price action, and much has opened my eyes to even more. 

As has been stated before, it's quite a heavy read, but as my understanding grows it becomes much easier to understand. I have highlighted and underlined so much and made plenty of notes. I will be referring to this many many times. An absolute gem. 





His two other books are Trends and Trading Ranges, but in terms of what I am doing with the FTSE, I think Reversals will be far and away the most beneficial. If I could choose one book it for futures trading education it would be this one.


----------



## >Apocalypto<

pavilion103 said:


> Spent a number of hours today analysing opening setups and reading Al Brooks.
> 
> I've gotta say in terms of futures trading, Al Brooks Reversals book is hands down the best I've read. Specifically reading about trading the open (about 100 pages), amazing. Much of his work confirms exactly what I've discovered through studying price action, and much has opened my eyes to even more.
> 
> As has been stated before, it's quite a heavy read, but as my understanding grows it becomes much easier to understand. I have highlighted and underlined so much and made plenty of notes. I will be referring to this many many times. An absolute gem.
> 
> View attachment 57918
> 
> 
> 
> His two other books are Trends and Trading Ranges, but in terms of what I am doing with the FTSE, I think Reversals will be far and away the most beneficial. If I could choose one book it for futures trading education it would be this one.




agree Pav I have book his book Reading Price Charts Bar by Bar and have read it 5 times... I use a  lot of his ideas in my trading.

good Al Brooks preso on YouTube

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=AXuTMFne6Yg


----------



## Newt

Reversals resonated with me so well I went straight back to the beginning to get "Trends".  I haven't regretted that either.  There's just so much to absorb.  The info on trend lines and trends really made me rethink what I was doing.  Love reading his descriptions of a day's price action, but for me its still about developing a few high probability setups and learning to stay out the rest of the time.


----------



## MichaelD

Back in the saddle this week. Couldn't get my head away from a very bad place (for trading) last weekend, so took the week off. Rarin' to go come tomorrow morning.


----------



## pavilion103

>Apocalypto< said:


> agree Pav I have book his book Reading Price Charts Bar by Bar and have read it 5 times... I use a  lot of his ideas in my trading.  good Al Brooks preso on YouTube  http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=AXuTMFne6Yg




Gee 5 times. That's great. Looks like another big book. I might have to order that one too.


----------



## pavilion103

Newt said:


> Reversals resonated with me so well I went straight back to the beginning to get "Trends".  I haven't regretted that either.  There's just so much to absorb.  The info on trend lines and trends really made me rethink what I was doing.  Love reading his descriptions of a day's price action, but for me its still about developing a few high probability setups and learning to stay out the rest of the time.




Yeh get those strong setups happening. Once you have those you as your bread and butter you can come up with new ideas/methods if you feel the need.

Like with how I trade. Brooks talks about the importance of setups on the open. Totally agree. Cornerstone of my strategy.


----------



## >Apocalypto<

pavilion103 said:


> Gee 5 times. That's great. Looks like another big book. I might have to order that one too.




I'm big on Al Brooks...

another YouTube
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=oU3VM87eBAg

He's got a few good webinares on YouTube


----------



## CanOz

Hi guys, I'm back after a little tour of you great country. I'll hang around for a couple of weeks before i go back to work again. For full disclosure I'm back to sim, having cleaned out all my funds for property investment, except for enough left to get the data of course....I still want to keep my skills fresh with screen time so I'll practice whenever i can. 

Will post some DAX charts today...


----------



## CanOz

Interesting brackets on muliple time frames. I think the UKR could be keeping a lid on the market. Any bullish news out of this region could see shorts running for cover. At the same time we need to see how bearish news is taken when the price tests the bottom of the brackets. No doubt allot of long stops there as well. We are due for a trend day soon...


----------



## ftw129

CanOz said:


> Hi guys, I'm back after a little tour of you great country. I'll hang around for a couple of weeks before i go back to work again. For full disclosure I'm back to sim, having cleaned out all my funds for property investment, except for enough left to get the data of course....I still want to keep my skills fresh with screen time so I'll practice whenever i can.
> 
> Will post some DAX charts today...




Hi Canoz,

(sorry off topic question here)

Where have you been purchasing property out of interest?


----------



## CanOz

ftw129 said:


> Hi Canoz,
> 
> (sorry off topic question here)
> 
> Where have you been purchasing property out of interest?




Brisbane.....within 10 Kms of the CBD.


----------



## VSntchr

CanOz said:


> Brisbane.....within 10 Kms of the CBD.




I might have even seen you wandering about Can 

FTSE trended decently last night. I watched it for a bit early but checked it this morning and saw the run up. The sell-in-may crew are so far treading water...


----------



## CanOz

VSntchr said:


> I might have even seen you wandering about Can
> 
> FTSE trended decently last night. I watched it for a bit early but checked it this morning and saw the run up. The sell-in-may crew are so far treading water...




We were on the Gold Coast as well for four nights, at the Hilton residences. Great place, awesome view from the 30th floor!

I got caught in the churn on the dax but then got on before the break higher when shorts got cleaned out....getting some nice fills on sim...


----------



## cynic

CanOz said:


> I got caught in the churn on the dax...




Somebody just made EUR20k trading that damned beast of a bourse and it wasn't me!!! (Grrr!!!)


----------



## MichaelD

Thought I'd post up an interesting chart snapshot to illustrate one of the differences between trading the Australia 200 Cash CFD and the SPI.

At 4pm, there is an adjustment made to the value of the CFD to account for stocks going ex-dividend. i.e. there's a gap. Mostly this gap is non-existent or trivial. Occasionally, it is substantial. Today, WBC and NAB went ex-dividend, producing a 15 point gap.


----------



## CanOz

Is that a trade opportunity Michael? As in an spread type Arb trade?


----------



## DeepState

CanOz said:


> Is that a trade opportunity Michael? As in an spread type Arb trade?




I understand that the adjustment value is added to your account.


----------



## MichaelD

CanOz said:


> Is that a trade opportunity Michael?




No, it's a risk to be managed.

Issues;

1. Gapping through stops can turn a profitable trade into a losing trade.
2. Gapping can lead to bad fills/slippage for short trades.

If long, $ get added to your account.
If short, $ get deducted from your account.


----------



## CanOz

MichaelD said:


> No, it's a risk to be managed.
> 
> Issues;
> 
> 1. Gapping through stops can turn a profitable trade into a losing trade.
> 2. Gapping can lead to bad fills/slippage for short trades.
> 
> If long, $ get added to your account.
> If short, $ get deducted from your account.




Nah, i was thinking more of if the adjustment was mispriced and the CFD had to align with the SPI, since it would be the only relevant proxy trading, it may provide a quick opportunity to take advantage of the mispricing. Obviously not...


----------



## beachlife

MichaelD said:


> Thought I'd post up an interesting chart snapshot to illustrate one of the differences between trading the Australia 200 Cash CFD and the SPI.
> 
> At 4pm, there is an adjustment made to the value of the CFD to account for stocks going ex-dividend. i.e. there's a gap. Mostly this gap is non-existent or trivial. Occasionally, it is substantial. Today, WBC and NAB went ex-dividend, producing a 15 point gap.




If this happens often why dont you trade a cfd that follows the spi instead of the cash market?


----------



## MichaelD

beachlife said:


> If this happens often why dont you trade a cfd that follows the spi instead of the cash market?



I know the instrument I trade very well. I like it. Gaps are rare and big dividend gaps are completely foreseeable.


----------



## CanOz

MichaelD said:


> I know the instrument I trade very well. I like it. Gaps are rare and big dividend gaps are completely foreseeable.




The CFD providers must have changed thier color since TH fleeced them...they let you win. 

You should send your track record into Propex and see if they'll fund you


----------



## MichaelD

CanOz said:


> The CFD providers must have changed thier color since TH fleeced them...they let you win.
> 
> You should send your track record into Propex and see if they'll fund you




There are quite specific liquidity limits I have to work within which are artificial, not to mention the artificial up-to-5 point spread after hours. Whilst I stay under the radar (i.e. only take money from other CFD traders) all is well.

I have no need for a prop firm at the moment. I don't need more capital.


----------



## CanOz

MichaelD said:


> I have no need for a prop firm at the moment. I don't need more capital.




Well its not just capital that they provide, but hey if you're happy on your own then more to you!


----------



## pavilion103

No updates guys because last night was break even. Tonight the same.
No action!


----------



## >Apocalypto<

MichaelD said:


> There are quite specific liquidity limits I have to work within which are artificial, not to mention the artificial up-to-5 point spread after hours. Whilst I stay under the radar (i.e. only take money from other CFD traders) all is well.
> 
> I have no need for a prop firm at the moment. I don't need more capital.




Agree Michael, if you can achieve what you need at home why bring extra stress/demand/expectation into your life.

My week so far attached, up 282.34 so far this month... if i can keep this consistency going for another few months i plan to get the acc up and trade $5 to $10 a point. Slowly - slowly though.


----------



## MichaelD

Monday - churn
Tuesday - churn
Wednesday - churn

Today - churn, but the close is looking very promising. It's a solid push through a couple of levels which have stood fast for some time.

I've bet long with a smallish position to begin with. Let's see where it leads.


----------



## MichaelD

CanOz said:


> Well its not just capital that they provide, but hey if you're happy on your own then more to you!




Definitely happy on my own.

Don't need more capital.
Don't need other traders to distract me.
Don't need office supplies.
Happy with the instrument I trade.
Happy with the platforms I use to trade it.
Happy with the room at home I trade from.
Happy with my current lifestyle.

I can't see any benefit in going to a prop firm at the moment.


----------



## pavilion103

This looks potentially interesting.
FTSE.

Upthrust on 5 min chart. 
2 very high volume bars relative to what we've seen.
A few no demand bars following.

I've got 2 shorts.
6872 stop 6881 above the high of the day and the upthrust.

S&P looking a little toppy too.
I think this is a good place to attempt a position trade to the downside.
Time will tell.


----------



## VSntchr

pavilion103 said:


> This looks potentially interesting.




Going down fast, good call.


----------



## MichaelD

MichaelD said:


> I've bet long with a smallish position to begin with. Let's see where it leads.




Bah.

Out @ breakeven.

Going out tonight so will see if anything develops later on in the evening.


----------



## pavilion103

VSntchr said:


> Going down fast, good call.




Almost disappointed I didn't take the third contract too.  

If (big if), this is in fact the top, then I will be holding onto this for the longer term.


----------



## Newt

Was home early today so (sim) traded from the open.  Drew in channels from last couple of days and shorted 2 (hypothetical) contracts at 6876.5 and 6877.

Got caught up with family and dinner etc so put on 2 take profits and a stop loss as I had planned to trade.  Came back an hr later with +35 pts (first trade off 6867.5) 2nd at 6851. If only it could be that easy every day.  Not letting it go to my head.


Disclaimer - last 3 to 4 days of sim trading have been flat or down 5-10 pts stopped out, so not proclaiming to suddenly have clicked.  Things I'm slowly getting through my thick skull last week or so:

 - If I can't get on until after 8pm don't trade falling price action (ATR)
 - Definitely don't try and trade from the middle of expected price action channel for ranging days if starting >couple of hours after the open (wait for support or resistance off lows or highs AND strong price action or STAY OUT) 
 - WAIT for price action (5min bars) to show where to get in and out, DON'T try to predict just to get in early (and usually incorrectly)
 - Once stops are in place chill out and only pay attention to closed bars
 - Can still see potential for writing some code to warn me when classic reversal set ups are forming or major breakouts begin - have started furrowing my VB.NET brow again.  If I'm going to trade a longer timeframe (5mins) I'm starting to think there are serious benefits actually not sitting in front of the screen watching every tick - I tend to want to do EXACTLY the wrong thing and try to 2nd guess the market.  Probably better to leave it on autopilot once stops get to break even.

 - Remember I'm a dumb beginner that will be trading one contract and needs all the help he can get from high probability set ups 


Hey, my post count is 100, not out  


(extra buy order 6873.5 was mistake must confess, mucking around learning to use the DOM)


----------



## pavilion103

I've lifted one contract when it looked a little stronger than hoped!

I've still got one that I'll hold with my stop at 6881.

Not sure if it was silly to take one off or not. Expected price to struggle before the high but probably not pullback as much!


----------



## pavilion103

Newt said:


> Was home early today so (sim) traded from the open.  Drew in channels from last couple of days and shorted 2 (hypothetical) contracts at 6876.5 and 6877.  Got caught up with family and dinner etc so put on 2 take profits and a stop loss as I had planned to trade.  Came back an hr later with +35 pts (first trade off 6867.5) 2nd at 6851. If only it could be that easy every day.  Not letting it go to my head.  Disclaimer - last 3 to 4 days of sim trading have been flat or down 5-10 pts stopped out, so not proclaiming to suddenly have clicked.  Things I'm slowly getting through my thick skull last week or so:  - If I can't get on until after 8pm don't trade falling price action (ATR) - Definitely don't try and trade from the middle of expected price action channel for ranging days if starting >couple of hours after the open (wait for support or resistance off lows or highs AND strong price action or STAY OUT) - WAIT for price action (5min bars) to show where to get in and out, DON'T try to predict just to get in early (and usually incorrectly) - Once stops are in place chill out and only pay attention to closed bars - Can still see potential for writing some code to warn me when classic reversal set ups are forming or major breakouts begin - have started furrowing my VB.NET brow again.  If I'm going to trade a longer timeframe (5mins) I'm starting to think there are serious benefits actually not sitting in front of the screen watching every tick - I tend to want to do EXACTLY the wrong thing and try to 2nd guess the market.  Probably better to leave it on autopilot once stops get to break even.  - Remember I'm a dumb beginner that will be trading one contract and needs all the help he can get from high probability set ups   Hey, my post count is 100, not out    (extra buy order 6873.5 was mistake must confess, mucking around learning to use the DOM)  <img src="https://www.aussiestockforums.com/forums/attachment.php?attachmentid=57973"/>




Upthrust on 5 min chart followed by no demand = great setup.

Stood out massively to me.


----------



## Caveroute

pavilion103 said:


> Upthrust on 5 min chart followed by no demand = great setup.
> 
> Stood out massively to me.




Or in PA terms it was a TL break, LH retest, fBO and OD bar trap and 2nd entry short

Dogs balls really :


----------



## CanOz

Newt said:


> ...... mucking around learning to use the DOM)




Good lad...use it to get prices on sale too!


----------



## pavilion103

6880 holding by the looks of it.

My stuffing around has cost me by taking off a contract and losing 10 points scalping when I shouldn't do that at all!!

Annoyed.

Deep breath... 1 contract is better than none.

Hugely important rest of the night now to see how this plays out.


----------



## CanOz

pavilion103 said:


> 6880 holding by the looks of it.
> 
> My stuffing around has cost me by taking off a contract and losing 10 points scalping when I shouldn't do that at all!!
> 
> Annoyed.
> 
> Deep breath... 1 contract is better than none.
> 
> Hugely important rest of the night now to see how this plays out.




Keep an eye out for all the news coming out Pav, big news night.


----------



## Newt

Caveroute said:


> Or in PA terms it was a TL break, LH retest, fBO and OD bar trap and 2nd entry short
> 
> Dogs balls really :




Agggghhhh. Speak English Caver!

TL = trend line break?  When did you mean?
LH = Lower high retest?  1730?
fBO = Failed breakout (17:35, on reducing volume?)
OD bar trap and 2nd entry short?  Hey?


----------



## Newt

CanOz said:


> Good lad...use it to get prices on sale too!




Thanks CanOz - do appreciate you describing how to trade with DOM, but I'm yet to "see the matrix" yet!  Can see benefits in saving a tick or two with limit orders though if things aren't moving too fast....


----------



## CanOz

Newt said:


> Thanks CanOz - do appreciate you describing how to trade with DOM, but I'm yet to "see the matrix" yet!  Can see benefits in saving a tick or two with limit orders though if things aren't moving too fast....




Yeah TBH without the Jigsaw DOM it was really difficult to see the stacking and pulling of orders, icebergs and spoofing...Jigsaw is so good its almost like cheating!


----------



## pavilion103

Smashing down!

Hugely bearish for the medium term.

Watching 6830 and 6810 levels.

Will probably go to bed now.
Nothing to do but hold.


----------



## Wysiwyg

Long black bars. Mmmm. Nice pickin' Pav.


----------



## pavilion103

At 6810 support level now. 
If I had more, here would be a good place to lift.
But the plan is a position trade with this one.


----------



## MichaelD

Smallish short overnight, but

1. divergence between US price action (down then flat) and futures action (blow-off down move then rising as US prices stayed flat)
2. news universally immediately fearful, and
3. IG clients selling like crazy into a rising futures market

I hold a bullish view again.

(Last time I stuck my neck out like this I had my best ever short trade about 2 hours later. Let's see what happens.)


----------



## pavilion103

Here is some of my analysis for my potential position trade. 

Note entry shown at the red area is a position I took lower down, not the original. 
Original at 6872.5. 
Only holding the one still. 

Tonight I will look for an re-entry if there is a good one on open. 

The plan was originally to take 3 contracts. 
I took 2 with the intention to add 1. 
As it turned out I hastily exited 1 contract when I should have just walked away from the screen. 
I didn't take the re-entry at 6870 highlighted on the chart. 
Glad I at least have 1 running. Not too bad. 

30 min chart

and

5 min chart with setup analysis


----------



## VSntchr

Smash down action on the FTSE.


----------



## pavilion103

VSntchr said:


> Smash down action on the FTSE.




Had 2 failed short attempts which cost me total 15 points. 
Then got on at the high of the big down bar at 6832.
Stop to BE on this position.

One contract from last night entry 6872
One from tonight 6832

Both running.


----------



## MichaelD

Nothing but small range trading noise for the last 24 hours for me. The range is unusually small so I haven't been able to take anything out of it. Sitting on hands time until the market decides which way it will go next week.

Pav, good to see there was money to be made on the FTSE. It still intrigues me that the SPI and the FTSE don't track each other.


----------



## cynic

I seem to have developed a knack of picking tops and bottoms!

Twice this financial year I've terminated profitable deployments by hitting the proverbial panic button, phoning a friend (my friendly neighbourhood broker) and saying "Get me the FTSE outta here". 

On both occasions, unbeknownst to myself, the market was about to reverse from a near term extreme. 

In effect I managed to dump long exposure right near the low and canned short exposure right near the high!

Most annoying and certainly not conducive to profitable trading!!!

Congratulations to that skilful/lucky DAX trader. 20K+ Euros is a great result for one and a bit of a day's effort! Consider yourself lucky that I lost my nerve!!

(I wonder if a certain T/A black duck was trading the DAX last monday and tuesday. Have you been in  touch with him lately Pav?)


----------



## Newt

cynic said:


> (I wonder if a certain T/A black duck was trading the DAX last monday and tuesday. Have you been in  touch with him lately Pav?)





WE WANT DUCK!
WE WANT DUCK!

BRING BACK THE DUCK!
Where are you Tech!?


----------



## cynic

Newt said:


> WE WANT DUCK!
> WE WANT DUCK!
> 
> BRING BACK THE DUCK!
> Where are you Tech!?




+1

Apart from missing his insights, I particularly want to know if he's the culprit behind my recent DAX failures! (I've simply gotta have somebody else to blame!!)


----------



## MichaelD

Quick short on the open. Client sentiment showed lots of buying, so the obvious direction for the market was down. Not a hugely profitable trade as position size was very small, but always nice to start the week with a pyramided winner.

Stopped out by my trailing stop on the highest tick of the relevant bar which may or may not turn into a dead cat bounce.


----------



## MichaelD

Dead Cat Bounce. Back short. Interesting open.


----------



## cynic

MichaelD said:


> Dead Cat Bounce. Back short. Interesting open.




I can certainly see the dead moggy, but where on earth is that bounce?!!


----------



## CanOz

Its a risk off day on the HSI and HHI for sure....


----------



## >Apocalypto<

cynic said:


> I seem to have developed a knack of picking tops and bottoms!
> 
> Twice this financial year I've terminated profitable deployments by hitting the proverbial panic button, phoning a friend (my friendly neighbourhood broker) and saying "Get me the FTSE outta here".
> 
> On both occasions, unbeknownst to myself, the market was about to reverse from a near term extreme.
> 
> In effect I managed to dump long exposure right near the low and canned short exposure right near the high!
> 
> Most annoying and certainly not conducive to profitable trading!!!
> 
> Congratulations to that skilful/lucky DAX trader. 20K+ Euros is a great result for one and a bit of a day's effort! Consider yourself lucky that I lost my nerve!!
> 
> (I wonder if a certain T/A black duck was trading the DAX last monday and tuesday. Have you been in  touch with him lately Pav?)




I know that feeling, in 08 when the RBA said no more rate rises.... i told my work mates the AUD is over.. well did i short it no.... off to 60 cents it went. one client has sold 10 lots rode it all the way to 70 cents.


----------



## >Apocalypto<

Spot GLD

Getting interesting... watching it atm for a buy set up.

Higher low off double bottom support with a trend break setting in. no buy yet but looking promising.


----------



## MichaelD

cynic said:


> I can certainly see the dead moggy, but where on earth is that bounce?!!




The market opened with a straight line down finishing with a long tail.

More often than not that's the last of the crowd who ran for the exit on the open (aka mean reversion time screwing them over).

Sometimes it's just the beginning... (aka all those buying the dip getting screwed over).

IG Clients are still buying this dip furiously instead of giving up and selling. I'm very bearish right now...but we are heading for an area where rounditis may well apply.

I therefore predict that the market will do one of the following things in the next day or two;
 - go down
 - go up
 - go sideways.



FWIW, I've taken a decent second chunk out of this further move down, this time with much larger position sizes. Steak tonight instead of mince meat.


----------



## pavilion103

"The Duck" made a tidy killing on the DAX last Thursday night. 
The same time I got on my FTSE short. 
Some emails and texts back and forwards last couple of weeks. 


FTSE is so interesting right now. Big volume coming in on that upthrust and the following bar, which pushed lower but held (for now). 
I am still holding 1 contract. Looking to add a second (or maybe third) tonight for the medium term move. 

Looking at the DOW, S&P, FTSE charts, I'm kind of just waiting for a day to smash down 100 points on the FTSE any day, although I could be terribly wrong. 

Looks very toppy to me. 

If I could be holding multiple contracts I'll be happy. 

We will see if this unfolds....




cynic said:


> I seem to have developed a knack of picking tops and bottoms!
> 
> Twice this financial year I've terminated profitable deployments by hitting the proverbial panic button, phoning a friend (my friendly neighbourhood broker) and saying "Get me the FTSE outta here".
> 
> On both occasions, unbeknownst to myself, the market was about to reverse from a near term extreme.
> 
> In effect I managed to dump long exposure right near the low and canned short exposure right near the high!
> 
> Most annoying and certainly not conducive to profitable trading!!!
> 
> Congratulations to that skilful/lucky DAX trader. 20K+ Euros is a great result for one and a bit of a day's effort! Consider yourself lucky that I lost my nerve!!
> 
> (I wonder if a certain T/A black duck was trading the DAX last monday and tuesday. Have you been in  touch with him lately Pav?)


----------



## MichaelD

May be a change in the prevailing wind developing.

Market has stopped going down.

IG Clients have stopped buying on the way down.

As always, my comments are for entertainment whilst I wait for the actual price action to declare what is evolving.

ps my second short of the day stopped out on a trailing stop for a very pleasing profit. Can now afford gravy on my steak tonight. Awaiting further market developments. Will feel bullish if market rises and IG clients sell into that.


----------



## CanOz

MichaelD said:


> May be a change in the prevailing wind developing.
> 
> Market has stopped going down.
> 
> IG Clients have stopped buying on the way down.




Its lunchtime in Hong Kong


----------



## VSntchr

Couple of attempts to push up but new lows being hit now...from 5500 down to a 5400 test in 3 days...not much volume and volatility amongst anything that I follow at the moment however...


----------



## >Apocalypto<

i'm very close to taking a buy on 1 hour spot GLD...


----------



## >Apocalypto<

>Apocalypto< said:


> i'm very close to taking a buy on 1 hour spot GLD...




bought in double inside bar... but want to see a new high this hour.. ent 1295.92 SL 1293.49 TP 37 cents above


----------



## >Apocalypto<

Long WTI close of the 4pm bar. ent 102.08


----------



## pavilion103

FTSE gaps down. 

Let's see if it fills the gap and comes off or of it pushes up to 6840ish. 

Interesting open.


----------



## pavilion103

6815 short. Initial stop 622.5

Mainly based on the 2 min chart which I don't usually have open every day, but feeling that this is a decisive point I like to zoom in a little more on the smaller time-frame so that I can see if price looks weak in a shorter time frame.


----------



## >Apocalypto<

>Apocalypto< said:


> bought in double inside bar... but want to see a new high this hour.. ent 1295.92 SL 1293.49 TP 37 cents above




GLD TP just hit with a BANG move... +35.81



>Apocalypto< said:


> Long WTI close of the 4pm bar. ent 102.08




WTI moved to 2 points over BE  after it stalled at the high... my ent on that trade was crap got in 8 pts higher then the last close. WTI now finding selling at a high going to watch for a new ent long. +2 points

+37.81 pts so far today.


----------



## MichaelD

MichaelD said:


> Will feel bullish if market rises and IG clients sell into that.




Posting remotely whilst out and about (it's usually quiet for me from Aussie market close to US open).

All of a sudden IG Client sentiment has switched, with 72% selling the Aussie 200 in the last hour. Sorry, can't post a screen cap from where I am.

Will allow myself to feel bullish. Will go long later if a solid uptrend established. Will go short if downtrend resumes.

Now is a time for sitting and waiting to see what develops.


----------



## pavilion103

Holding at break even


----------



## pavilion103

Holding 2 in total from the Thursday top. 

Entries:

1 @ 6872
1 @ 6815


----------



## kid hustlr

whadya reckon pav has this broken through the 6800?


----------



## pavilion103

kid hustlr said:


> whadya reckon pav has this broken through the 6800?




Crucial from here. If 6790 doesn't hold I'm very bearish. Crucial level around here. 30 min chart looks dreadfully weak.

No idea why I didn't add at 6808 stop 6814.
Too busy worrying about my position trades.
Standard play.
As it pushed down in real time I thought 6790 exit as price consolidated. Would have made 28 points on the intra day trade (3rd contract).  

Asleep at the wheel. But happy so far. 
Great first trade executed aggressively.


----------



## pavilion103

This did happen Friday a night but then pushed back up so the short is far from safe today. In the medium term though I am very confident.


----------



## >Apocalypto<

>Apocalypto< said:


> Long WTI close of the 4pm bar. ent 102.08




long (2nd) wti fade turned to a close over the range ent 101.93


----------



## kid hustlr

pavilion103 said:


> This did happen Friday a night but then pushed back up so the short is far from safe today. In the medium term though I am very confident.




broke through 6800 and is kind of just hovering for now im tryna work out which way equities are gonna go tonight im short bonds and i think ftse/equities heavy so i mdoing it wrong i think


----------



## pavilion103

kid hustlr said:


> broke through 6800 and is kind of just hovering for now im tryna work out which way equities are gonna go tonight im short bonds and i think ftse/equities heavy so i mdoing it wrong i think




If not trading a major top I'd have good profit banked tonight.

It's really all or thing for me. 

Original contract I'm very confident. Second one, I'm just hoping this smashes down!!!

Closing the second one at 6872 the other night has caused me additional work.

If this holds I'll leave 2 and trade 1 intraday from now on.


This consolidation is long. Critical break either way now!


----------



## pavilion103

If I was home I'd consider intraday long.
6801, stop 6791


----------



## pavilion103

Would lift long around 6810-15 area.

If it stalls here and comes off its interesting.

Only able to check in breaks at class. 

Still holding original 2.


----------



## CanOz

pavilion103 said:


> Would lift long around 6810-15 area.
> 
> If it stalls here and comes off its interesting.
> 
> Only able to check in breaks at class.
> 
> Still holding original 2.




What are you studying?


----------



## pavilion103

CanOz said:


> What are you studying?




Bible College.  

1 contract taken out. Grrr.


----------



## CanOz

hmmmm....correction over


----------



## pavilion103

CanOz said:


> hmmmm....correction over




Short again 6826

Just left class


----------



## pavilion103

I saw the big volume coming in. 
Think it's a good spot.


----------



## pavilion103

Took the trade on my phone just after class. 
If I was home, looking at both the 3 and 5 min I would have taken 2 for a total of 9 points risk. Based mainly on the 3 minute pattern. Brilliant setup. 

Stop to BE within a few bars, perfect. 


This is a real catch 22 for me. 

Because it's a major high I want to get on and hold 2. It will save time, effort and stress over the coming weeks. However, because I've held I've given back some profits too. 

One my 2nd contract would most likely be up around 40-50 tonight and back in with stop at BE. 

But I've watched previous highs and wanted to trade it like this so I'm giving it a real go. 

We will see what happens. 

Will leave second one at 6826 and to go bed. 

Will post charts in coming days when I do my analysis and get time, most likely Wednesday, and most likely for the trades that end up being good winners. 

Good night all


----------



## MichaelD

Fascinating, and yet uneventful, evening. I'm back basically watching the first hour or two of US trade and then I'll go to bed and let my alerts wake me if needed overnight.

This evening was a really, really long stretch of very tight range trading (within a 10 point range) sitting right on a "rounditis" level (5400). IG Clients buying. If they were selling, I'd be more convinced that this was forming a big support base for a substantial thrust upwards.

Still waiting for the market to declare itself.


----------



## >Apocalypto<

>Apocalypto< said:


> long (2nd) wti fade turned to a close over the range ent 102.26(ENT PRICE I POST ON ORG POST WAS WRONG I HAVE CORRECTED IT




Closed under range top tried a few times kept finding decent selling...+10.68 cents. 

Still trying to break atm maybe a mistake by me... happy to close the day +47.93 pts @ 3/3 wins.. Lost last week’s demons today so just have to keep on working to keep them away.

Plan to increase the acc to 1K this week and trade $2 a tick.

After end of last week’s stupidity and a withdrawal still up this month by 87.54 just have to keep my head together.


----------



## MichaelD

Market rising.

IG Clients selling.

News articles bearish.

What a difference an hour makes.

I have a Buy Stop in just above where the market is now. Will see what eventuates overnight, but I feel we have just seen a very significant turning point to the upside.

i.e. Going up from here = maximum pain for the maximum number of market participants. Therefore, the market will rise.


----------



## CanOz

I'm still bullish, the ES still bullish too....but we're consolidating at the moment...


----------



## MichaelD

Still rising.

IG Clients selling like crazy - 80% is an extreme for this particular metric. I suspect a short squeeze is imminent.

I'm now in long with a small "probe" position. That'll do me for tonight. Time to go to bed and let the market do what it's going to do. My alerts will wake me if I need to do anything more overnight.


----------



## Panaman




----------



## MichaelD

^Poignantly bitter-sweet video.

1. Clearly an undercapitalized trader for his position size. That's actually quite a small $ amount to lose when trading futures at 10 contract position size.
2. The market remained irrational for longer than our trader could remain solvent.
3. It's not that you're wrong. It's that you stay wrong and let your risk get out of control.


----------



## CanOz

Yeah, I recall seeing that before, Back in 2009. I think he's come back from that....


----------



## VSntchr

Panaman said:


>





HAHAHAHA! 

That reminds me of myself when I had no idea about anything about 8 years ago and I started trading mini RBS warrants lol


----------



## kid hustlr

how can u guys tell his position size?

is he stuck 25k?


----------



## LinRegSlope

VSntchr said:


> HAHAHAHA!
> 
> That reminds me of myself when I had no idea about anything about 8 years ago and I started trading mini RBS warrants lol




Reminds me of my CFD trading days a few years back, trading anything and everything on ridiculous margin with abysmal money management going on. Had a swing of 160k up in a day, and gave it all back the next day - hahaha - funny now but was very stressful to say the least at the time. 

But that was then and this is now, so much the better trader for going through all the pain and sticking with it.


----------



## LinRegSlope

Will be interesting to see how long this 5400 support level on the SPI holds?


----------



## cynic

>Apocalypto< said:


> I know that feeling, in 08 when the RBA said no more rate rises.... i told my work mates the AUD is over.. well did i short it no.... off to 60 cents it went. one client has sold 10 lots rode it all the way to 70 cents.



Yes - many leveraged traders have fond reminiscences of '08! 


pavilion103 said:


> "The Duck" made a tidy killing on the DAX last Thursday night.
> ...



Yeah that'd be about right!! I have my second worst week for the year and the DUCK makes a killing!

Please be sure to alert him to the fact that I am not of a generous disposition and that those euros were definitely not a gift! (They were a loan - one which I expect to recover with interest!)

I've already selected the meanest, wickedest goose from my gaggle and gotten her fuelled and ready for deployment in the september quarter.

June may have been open season on DAX but next quarter is definitely going to be open season on DUCKS!

Feather by feather, I'll be getting my euros back along with a healthy whack of interest!


----------



## Wysiwyg

MichaelD said:


> Still rising.
> IG Clients selling like crazy - 80% is an extreme for this particular metric. I suspect a short squeeze is imminent.



Contrary trades to this small group is an interesting strategy. One would think they would smarten up and use this edge which would then be no edge.



> My alerts will wake me if I need to do anything more overnight.



Mate I sleep like a dog when I have an open trade in profit running. How do you do it? Trailing stop comfort? They tell me worry is good because that means there is risk somewhere and we gotta take risk to get the reward.


----------



## MichaelD

kid hustlr said:


> how can u guys tell his position size?
> 
> is he stuck 25k?




Very briefly at 4:30 you see 10 / 678.06 ...   652.10/652.70 on screen with an unrealized loss of -$25,464.88.

It's reasonable to assume that 10/678.06 is an open long position. The market is down 4% from this entry and he's blown up.

Traded too large.


Been there, done that.


----------



## CanOz

Not only did he violate his stop, but his daily stop as well...weekly, monthly...yearly


----------



## kid hustlr

jeez u blokes have a keen eye


----------



## MichaelD

Wysiwyg said:


> Contrary trades to this small group is an interesting strategy. One would think they would smarten up and use this edge which would then be no edge.
> 
> Mate I sleep like a dog when I have an open trade in profit running. How do you do it? Trailing stop comfort? They tell me worry is good because that means there is risk somewhere and we gotta take risk to get the reward.




IG Client Sentiment is 100% pure entertainment for me and does *not* influence my trading at all. Often I find myself contrary to everyone else (even here in this thread!). This is intellectually interesting to me in that many of the posters here are consistent and profitable, just as I am, but they are often facing the exact opposite direction to me.


Once locked into a trailing stop, the only trade risk is slippage if the stop is hit. The trailing stop ratchets up/down automatically, so I don't have to worry about moving it. Slippage is rare and minor if it does happen. I can sleep fine with this.

When I initially started using the automatic trailing stop, I would watch it closely. 1000s of trades later, it's just a tool I use to stop me from needing to screen watch 24/7.


----------



## barney

MichaelD said:


> Traded too large.
> 
> 
> *Been there, done that*.





Ditto  ...... Actually bought back bad memories ......  

Probably should play that video before every trading session just to remind the brain of the potential downside when trading Maverick style:cowboy:  .............:flush:


----------



## cynic

barney said:


> Ditto  ...... Actually bought back bad memories ......
> 
> Probably should play that video before every trading session just to remind the brain of the potential downside when trading Maverick style:cowboy:  .............:flush:




And here I was thinking that being a Maverick was a prerequisite for DAX trading! 

Have you seen the way they ride that bourse?! 

Texan Rodeo's look tame by comparison!


----------



## MichaelD

Blowing up is either;

1. The end of your trading.
"It's rigged"
"It was someone else's fault"
"It wasn't my fault"

or

2. The beginning of the next phase of your development as a trader.
"What did I do wrong?"
"How do I prevent this happening again?"


I have a weekly risk management meeting with my wife where I have to explain how much risk we are exposed to. This is designed to prevent me from getting carried away with position size when we have a particularly good week.

She often asks "why are you taking so little risk when you have so much more capital available?"


----------



## >Apocalypto<

MichaelD said:


> Blowing up is either;
> 
> 1. The end of your trading.
> "It's rigged"
> "It was someone else's fault"
> "It wasn't my fault"
> 
> or
> 
> 2. The beginning of the next phase of your development as a trader.
> "What did I do wrong?"
> "How do I prevent this happening again?"
> 
> 
> I have a weekly risk management meeting with my wife where I have to explain how much risk we are exposed to. This is designed to prevent me from getting carried away with position size when we have a particularly good week.
> 
> She often asks "why are you taking so little risk when you have so much more capital available?"




Gold... really enjoyed that post Michael.


----------



## cynic

This advert is a close approximation to my earlier trading experiences:

www.youtube.com/watch?v=cPEf_q-_DGg

As for my more recent trading, I am happy to say that years of experience has enabled me to refine my trading style to the point where I am now able to blow up even more spectacularly than ever before!


----------



## >Apocalypto<

cynic said:


> This advert is a close approximation to my earlier trading experiences:
> 
> www.youtube.com/watch?v=cPEf_q-_DGg
> 
> As for my more recent trading, I am happy to say that years of experience has enabled me to refine my trading style to the point where I am now able to blow up even more spectacularly than ever before!




you dont trade FX do you Cynic? 

that was my deal... couple months on doing great followed by PAIN.:bricks1:


----------



## cynic

>Apocalypto< said:


> you dont trade FX do you Cynic?



No I certainly don't, but I am quite amazed at the number of people choosing to engage such a poorly regulated market.

I'm ashamed to say that FX trading is entirely beyond the scope afforded by even my heightened level of insanity!! 

Fortunately DAX volatility has been amply stretching my comfort zones beyond breaking point thereby satiating my intense desire for self flagellation.


----------



## >Apocalypto<

cynic said:


> No I certainly don't, but I am quite amazed at the number of people choosing to engage such a poorly regulated market.
> 
> I'm ashamed to say that FX trading is entirely beyond the scope afforded by even my heightened level of insanity!!
> 
> Fortunately DAX volatility has been amply stretching my comfort zones beyond breaking point thereby satiating my intense desire for self flagellation.




it took me 6 years but i do agree with that. very very hard. 

Once i started to trade CL with IB i really enjoyed it and stopped trading FX but after buying a business i didn't have the cap to keep the ib acc. 

I am enjoying trading WTI and GLD on CFDs not exactly where i want to be (back on the Full size Futs) but happy enough till i can get back there. 

I looked at the dax but prefered the EUROSTOX50 over it... but the 50) is slow...


----------



## CanOz

>Apocalypto< said:


> it took me 6 years but i do agree with that. very very hard.
> 
> Once i started to trade CL with IB i really enjoyed it and stopped trading FX but after buying a business i didn't have the cap to keep the ib acc.
> 
> I am enjoying trading WTI and GLD on CFDs not exactly where i want to be (back on the Full size Futs) but happy enough till i can get back there.
> 
> I looked at the dax but prefered the EUROSTOX50 over it... but the 50) is slow...




+1 agree, FX is very difficult....too many variables to even consider it for me. If i was forced to trade it then pick one pair, one time of day etc...

CL and GC are ok for me, i like fast markets, but after three years of screen time on the DAX, its still my preference. HHI is second for me, but still a practice market for the next few years.


----------



## skc

MichaelD said:


> Very briefly at 4:30 you see 10 / 678.06 ...   652.10/652.70 on screen with an unrealized loss of -$25,464.88.
> 
> It's reasonable to assume that 10/678.06 is an open long position. The market is down 4% from this entry and he's blown up.
> 
> Traded too large.
> 
> Been there, done that.




The GFC low in S&P was 666 in March 09. The video was uploaded in Jan 09 and his entry was around 678. So he actually went long pretty close to THE bottom. Today's S&P500 is 1880 so he would have been up around $600k. 
Of course all my comments are made without regards to his account size and trading timeframe.

P.S. I don't swear at the market, but I do often swear at myself for being an idiot...


----------



## >Apocalypto<

Long WTI ent 102.27 SL 101.98 TP back at the high...

2nd HL cont range... looking for a break up to 102.58


----------



## cynic

skc said:


> The GFC low in S&P was 666 in March 09. The video was uploaded in Jan 09 and his entry was around 678. So he actually went long pretty close to THE bottom. Today's S&P500 is 1880 so he would have been up around $600k.
> Of course all my comments are made without regards to his account size and trading timeframe.
> 
> P.S. I don't swear at the market, but I do often swear at myself for being an idiot...




According to my data the actual S&P 500 remained somewhere in the vicinity of 800 to 900 points in Jan '09 and didn't go anywhere near 678 until March. 

This leads me to wonder how much lower the futures market went outside of hours!

I normally don't swear at the market, but have often sworn at Draghi, Bernanke etc. (Too often doth they speaketh and causeth profits to droppeth!)


----------



## MichaelD

Gloriously following the path of maximum pain for maximum market participants.

1. For those bullish, the day started with a plunge downwards to below the rounditis-enhanced support level, thus ensuring any stops would have been run right at the very bottom. I've marked the rounditis support level on the chart.
Didn't screen cap it, but IG Clients were buying on the open, so once again - maximum pain for them.

2. For those bearish, the day tempted the bears in early on and then quickly reversed on them.
Hence IG Clients are now selling into a rising market.


This type of intraday price action reversal is, in my opinion, the hardest of all price action to trade safely as it catches out both mean reverters and breakout traders.


I've made chicken scratchings only both ways today due to the very choppy price action, as well as the very tiny position sizes I've used. To be frank, though, I find just aiming for capital preservation is a good goal on these days.


----------



## LinRegSlope

MichaelD said:


> Gloriously following the path of maximum pain for maximum market participants.
> 
> 1. For those bullish, the day started with a plunge downwards to below the rounditis-enhanced support level, thus ensuring any stops would have been run right at the very bottom. I've marked the rounditis support level on the chart.
> Didn't screen cap it, but IG Clients were buying on the open, so once again - maximum pain for them.
> 
> 2. For those bearish, the day tempted the bears in early on and then quickly reversed on them.
> Hence IG Clients are now selling into a rising market.




This is why I ditched FA for TA many eons ago. Prior to the SPI opening I had a Long bias for the morning activity, however I traded the short setup and not my opinion. 
I made a comment earlier about whether support would hold at 5400, only for the market to rise 50 points off its low of the day.


----------



## >Apocalypto<

>Apocalypto< said:


> Long WTI ent 102.27 SL 101.98 TP back at the high...
> 
> 2nd HL cont range... looking for a break up to 102.58




trade cut, failed to make a new high in this hour... back to the sidelines. gold looking shortish but still waiting.


----------



## cynic

LinRegSlope said:


> This is why I ditched FA for TA many eons ago. Prior to the SPI opening I had a Long bias for the morning activity, however I traded the short setup and not my opinion.
> I made a comment earlier about whether support would hold at 5400, only for the market to rise 50 points off its low of the day.




Around that time I had a take profit target of 5389 on one of my June short positions - missed it by that much!


----------



## >Apocalypto<

>Apocalypto< said:


> gold looking shortish but still waiting.




was close to a trade on GLD but i passed... 

too much support this area and it's in a solid range on a few levels..


----------



## LinRegSlope

cynic said:


> Around that time I had a take profit target of 5389 on one of my June short positions - missed it by that much!




3 points, ouch. Hey Cynic, just part of the joy of trading, know the feeling all too well!


----------



## >Apocalypto<

golds off.... now going to wait for a rally to sell.


----------



## LinRegSlope

>Apocalypto< said:


> was close to a trade on GLD but i passed...
> 
> too much support this area and it's in a solid range on a few levels..




16 point spread? width of a rather large cruise ship?


----------



## pavilion103

2 more contracts short.

6821, 6830.5

Below and above upthrust on 5 min chart.

1 intra day trade
1 addition to the position trade from Thursday


----------



## >Apocalypto<

LinRegSlope said:


> 16 point spread? width of a rather large cruise ship?




16 cents man... with a .7 com inand out. norm is a 50-30 cent spread...


----------



## beachlife

The S&P swing chart has swung up (so has DOW - not shown) so will be interesting to see if it continues up and the others follow, or if it swings down tonight and takes the rest of the world with it.


----------



## pavilion103

Took the intra day trade off for 20 points at 6799.5


----------



## pavilion103

Would have loved the stop and entry near the high of the day but you'd think now that if this is going to push lower it won't touch 6821 anyway. It might. But a push back that high is showing some strength.

Plan is to hold these two now. 

Some action the last few nights


----------



## barney

cynic said:


> I'm ashamed to say that FX trading is entirely beyond the scope afforded by even my heightened level of insanity!!






>Apocalypto< said:


> it took me 6 years but i do agree with that. very very hard.






CanOz said:


> +1 agree, FX is very difficult....too many variables to even consider it for me.




After much searching to find a definitive edge, I am inclined to agree with all you gentlemen. I haven't given up on it yet, but I find it increasingly frustrating 




cynic said:


> This advert is a close approximation to my earlier trading experiences:
> 
> www.youtube.com/watch?v=cPEf_q-_DGg
> 
> As for my more recent trading, *I am happy to say that years of experience has enabled me to refine my trading style to the point where I am now able to blow up even more spectacularly than ever before*!




That is very funny Cynic ..... Not the video .... what you said!!  lol   ..... (The video was funny too though)


----------



## pavilion103

Trailing his second contract like a normal runner. If it moves significantly down then I'll consider what I'll do beyond today. I've got a plan.

Trailing 6805.5 for now with 35 points locked in for the day plus my first one which has moved 44 today.

Interesting point now.
Big consolidation. 
A break up would be similar to the last few days.
A break down could see a decent move.


----------



## Caveroute

pavilion103 said:


> 2 more contracts short.
> 
> 6821, 6830.5
> 
> Below and above upthrust on 5 min chart.
> 
> 1 intra day trade
> 1 addition to the position trade from Thursday




Curious, 6821 I can understand, but 6830 on the 5 minute ?

What was the logic there ?

Great entries though.


----------



## pavilion103

Nah 6830 was the stop.
Both entries at 6821.


----------



## LinRegSlope

LinRegSlope said:


> Will be interesting to see how long this 5400 support level on the SPI holds?




Almost 24 hrs later, let's see if it holds this time?


----------



## MichaelD

LinRegSlope said:


> Almost 24 hrs later, let's see if it holds this time?



Indeed this will be interesting.

IG Clients have finally given up buying the downtrends and started selling into them.

The contrarian in me suggests the market should now rise to cause them maximum pain.

Addit: Actually, on further reflection - I now think these "early Sell adopters" will do OK, but when the Sell % reaches an extreme...that'll be the point of maximum pain for all the buyers who will have toxic long positions and who will then swap them for toxic short positions.


----------



## CanOz

From your posts on the sentiment indicator it seems obviously that the change is as important/more important than the current reading. So is there a way that you can track the change in the context of the markets short term trend? Or is this sort of a wet finger in the air kinda thingy?

Fascinating either way, enjoy the sentiment indicator posts.


----------



## pavilion103

Closed out 55 profit last night.

The position trade up around 90 points.

Kicking myself hat I closed be second one Thursday night :O


----------



## LinRegSlope

MichaelD said:


> Indeed this will be interesting.
> 
> IG Clients have finally given up buying the downtrends and started selling into them.
> 
> The contrarian in me suggests the market should now rise to cause them maximum pain.
> 
> Addit: Actually, on further reflection - I now think these "early Sell adopters" will do OK, but when the Sell % reaches an extreme...that'll be the point of maximum pain for all the buyers who will have toxic long positions and who will then swap them for toxic short positions.




The sentiment does appear to be switching to the downside? Next support level is at 5335, so no surprise to see a slow grind down.


----------



## MichaelD

CanOz said:


> So is there a way that you can track the change in the context of the markets short term trend? Or is this sort of a wet finger in the air kinda thingy?




Very much a wet finger in the air thingy at the moment. There isn't a chart of the historical values.

Has no bearing on the way I trade (yet). Just occasionally makes me feel a little bit better when I'm contrarian.


----------



## CanOz

My interest in it Michael comes from an FX trader in the UK that uses it to identify the context with which to look for areas where traders will exit positions, stop runs. Basically this guy waits until the reading gets to uncharacteristically high or low levels, then looks for the levels in the market where they could have stops. Typically he says, he's looking for areas that larger traders, can push the market to in order to unload or load up. 

Anyway, that may or may not be of interest to you, but that's where i got my interest in the indicator from. 

I think it would be interesting to plot the indicator against the index every hour or so in order to visualize the changes as they happen in context with the index.

Thanks for posting it anyway.


----------



## MichaelD

Shaping up to be another "maximum pain for maximum participants" day.

Stop run on the open to hurt the remaining bottom pickers.
Then a big, quick reversal to go back over previous support to hurt the shorters.

Once again, several quick in-outs with very small size is the only way to safely play.


----------



## TheUnknown

Asxsp200

Long entry from 5,435.00 waiting


----------



## LinRegSlope

TheUnknown said:


> Asxsp200




I take it that this is a CFD product?


----------



## LinRegSlope

MichaelD said:


> Shaping up to be another "maximum pain for maximum participants" day.
> 
> Stop run on the open to hurt the remaining bottom pickers.
> Then a big, quick reversal to go back over previous support to hurt the shorters.
> 
> Once again, several quick in-outs with very small size is the only way to safely play.




Interesting to see on the 30 min SPI chart the number of lower highs, lower lows forming.


----------



## pavilion103

With various participants in this thread, I am now considering opening a futures thread specific to the FTSE.

This current thread is a huge success and I love what is going on here. Given the level of popularity posting about the FTSE has become just one of a number of futures markets.

Those interested in the new thread if I open it can post specifically about the FTSE.


----------



## TheUnknown

LinRegSlope said:


> I take it that this is a CFD product?




Yes


----------



## MichaelD

pavilion103 said:


> To be honest no one seems to give a toss in here.
> 
> I'm not sure if there is much point in me posting up constant analysis if there is no critical discussion around it. Feedback and discussion is my primary motivation for posting.






pavilion103 said:


> With various participants in this thread, I am now considering opening a futures thread specific to the FTSE.
> 
> This current thread is a huge success and I love what is going on here. Given the level of popularity posting about the FTSE has become just one of a number of futures markets.
> 
> Those interested in the new thread if I open it can post specifically about the FTSE.




Somewhat ironic, no?

You got what you asked for, but it wasn't what you wanted. :

Personally, I really enjoy the various markets being discussed here in the one place. There are far more similarities than differences. It would be a pity to separate off the FTSE arbitrarily in my opinion.


----------



## pavilion103

MichaelD said:


> Somewhat ironic, no?
> 
> You got what you asked for, but it wasn't what you wanted. :
> 
> Personally, I really enjoy the various markets being discussed here in the one place. There are far more similarities than differences. It would be a pity to separate off the FTSE arbitrarily in my opinion.




As I stated Michael, I am delighted with the interest in this thread in recent weeks. I thought it was almost coming to the end of it's life before. 

I just feel that there is room for more specific FTSE analysis in another thread now, as well as continuing the general futures markets discussion in here.


----------



## beachlife

This thread is about your transition to futures trading, so seeing other people approaches, regardless of market and instrument type would give you plenty of perspectives to consider, unless you consider your transition to be complete then yes start a thread dedicated to your preferred instrument, otherwise the more opinions the better.  It depends on what you want out of it.


----------



## pavilion103

Well there are two distinct purposes. 

1. To share and discuss ideas (this thread)

2. To discuss and analyse specific price action relevant to the FTSE (setups etc).


----------



## LinRegSlope

MichaelD said:


> Personally, I really enjoy the various markets being discussed here in the one place. There are far more similarities than differences. It would be a pity to separate off the FTSE arbitrarily in my opinion.




touchÃ©


----------



## CanOz

Well i'm just about to the end of my tether anyhow...my 20mb connection expired today so my trading PC is on the 10mb wifi now...

Good for practice, if NT lets me load everything...Really hit home today that I'm pretty much done for a while.

Been a great thread Pav


----------



## MichaelD

Really interesting end to the Aussie 200 day.

1. Pretty strong rejection of the initial downwards move today, getting significantly above the 5400 level.

2. Looking at the XAO daily, that's a pretty solid rejection of the lows. Wasn't entirely convinced yesterday, but a few more long tail days like today would be very bullish.

3. IG Clients now net short instead of net long.

The longs got a good whacking from the pain stick during the first couple of hours of trade. Seems to be the turn of the shorts next.

Managed 7 trades today, 6 out of 7 profitable, but all very small position sizes.


----------



## LinRegSlope

This is a setup I learnt from Davin Clarke and Alexander Tzavaras, two of the best traders I have had the privilege to study under. The only change is the addition of the SMI (bottom pane). Typically it is against the trend, so good for a few points, or if you are a swing trader then a low risk trade for a large possible reversal.


----------



## cynic

LinRegSlope said:


> 3 points, ouch. Hey Cynic, just part of the joy of trading, know the feeling all too well!




Fortunately I was brave (or perhaps insane) enough to hold that position overnight and was delighted when the "one that got away" decided to leap back into the net this morning.

A massive 8 points of profit on a rather old position. 

Don't worry! 

I assure you that I won't spend it all at once and will save a few of those points for a rainy day (i.e. next time I trade the DAX).


----------



## hsifutures

Hi guys,

Am new to the forum.

Was looking around for information pertaining to Hang Seng Futures Depth of Market. Does anyone know where I can get them?


----------



## 5oclock

pavilion103 said:


> Well there are two distinct purposes.
> 
> 1. To share and discuss ideas (this thread)
> 
> 2. To discuss and analyse specific price action relevant to the FTSE (setups etc).




Hi PAV--I dont say much, but I am inclined to agree with MichealD that there maybe more similarities than differences in the markets and the thread may not get as large of an audience that it has if it just specializes in the FTSE. I also agree with CANOZ that it has been a great thread,one of the main threads I always read!!


----------



## LinRegSlope

Resistance on the SPI around 5475-5480. One of two scenarios IMO. Resistance holds and we channel between 5480 down to 5390, or 5480 becomes support and we channel between this level and next resistance around 5530.
So to state the obvious, up - down - or sideways


----------



## MichaelD

LinRegSlope said:


> So to state the obvious, up - down - or sideways



Agrees 100% with my analysis. (No smiley).

Note to lurkers. Note the lack of irrelevant clutter on the presented chart.


----------



## LinRegSlope

MichaelD said:


> Agrees 100% with my analysis. (No smiley).
> 
> Note to lurkers. Note the lack of irrelevant clutter on the presented chart.




Completely agree, one thing I have learned over the years for intraday trading is that 'less noise = clearer picture'!

As I write this the SPI is testing the resistance levels around 75-80.


----------



## LinRegSlope

hsifutures said:


> Hi guys,
> 
> Am new to the forum.
> 
> Was looking around for information pertaining to Hang Seng Futures Depth of Market. Does anyone know where I can get them?




Most of the Futures brokers provide DOMs these days, i.e. IB, CQG etc
CQG being a platform that you can get via a few brokers.


----------



## CanOz

LinRegSlope said:


> Most of the Futures brokers provide DOMs these days, i.e. IB, CQG etc




Plenty provide DOMs, but not all data is level II. See my reply on the specific thread.


----------



## MichaelD

Not a good day to be short.

Nonetheless, IG Clients remain short.

I've made acceptable money long today, but still only using very small position sizes. Will get serious about going long if we get solidly through the next rounditis resistance/support level at 5500.


----------



## VSntchr

MichaelD said:


> Not a good day to be short.
> 
> Nonetheless, IG Clients remain short.
> 
> I've made acceptable money long today, but still only using very small position sizes. Will get serious about going long if we get solidly through the next rounditis resistance/support level at 5500.




The actual June futures contract is teeeeeetering right on 5500, has broken though with 2 quick jumps but just sitting below at the moment....interested to see where the market ends up today..


----------



## LinRegSlope

VSntchr said:


> The actual June futures contract is teeeeeetering right on 5500, has broken though with 2 quick jumps but just sitting below at the moment....interested to see where the market ends up today..




5530 is the next target on my radar. Should the price move comfortably back up into the 5530-50 range and beyond then we're back in Bullish mode and the short term correction is complete, IMO.
Support around 5470-80.


----------



## Newt

Hey Pav,

I'm enjoying the diversity of futures instruments and discussion going on in here, but why not try the FTSE specific thread too?  Let's have our cake and eat it too.  

Would be be great to have some more active trader discussion in the Derivatives section of the forum.


----------



## pavilion103

Newt said:


> Hey Pav,  I'm enjoying the diversity of futures instruments and discussion going on in here, but why not try the FTSE specific thread too?  Let's have our cake and eat it too.  Would be be great to have some more active trader discussion in the Derivatives section of the forum.




It is up and running mate. Check it out.


----------



## LinRegSlope

Overnight SPI action has the price back at the 5500 mark. After a pullback and support holding at the 5480 level, it now sits roughly in the middle of the 5480 - 5530 range, and appears to be grinding higher. With the overnight positive action in the US and EU it may test the 5530 level sooner rather than later IMO. Looking more Bullish than Bearish ATM.
Any Swing Traders out there now Long on the SPI off the 5400 level? 
I only day trade the SPI, my preference for longer term swing trades is the FESX due to volume (EOD setups).


----------



## pavilion103

Not sure how others are seeing it, but to me it looks like we have seen top in a number of the indexes with price pushing down from late last week with a little more volatiltiy and then price pushing up a little to test the highs. 

The last 2 bars on the FTSE look very week, particularly last night. 

DOW will also be interesting. A very important next few trading days imo. 

If the weak pushes up fail and price falls, there can be a strong argument for the fact that an intermediate top has been reached. 

That is of course IF prices push lower in the coming week, whic is no guarantee. 

Even XAO is interesting if it holds at around the 5500-5550 area. Another rejection of the highs will be bearish. 


I'm calling it now, as I have the last couple of weeks. It all looks very bearish to me. 

Time will tell if I am correct in my analysis.


----------



## pavilion103

LinRegSlope said:


> Overnight SPI action has the price back at the 5500 mark. After a pullback and support holding at the 5480 level, it now sits roughly in the middle of the 5480 - 5530 range, and appears to be grinding higher. With the overnight positive action in the US and EU it may test the 5530 level sooner rather than later IMO. Looking more Bullish than Bearish ATM.
> Any Swing Traders out there now Long on the SPI off the 5400 level?
> I only day trade the SPI, my preference for longer term swing trades is the FESX due to volume (EOD setups).
> 
> View attachment 58079




Depends what timeframe you are talking as to bullish or bearish I guess. 

But I see things a little differently. 
Resistance ahead in the 5500-5550 area. 
My default position is always caution around this sort of resistance. 

I wouldn't see this as bullish unless it breaks through the 5550 area and then probably pulls back either intra-day or on the daily to test these recent highs as a support area. 

Until then I am going on record saying this looks bearish to me and if I was looking for a position trade I'd be looking for a good low-risk setup between here and just below the 5550 area. 

Time will tell.


----------



## LinRegSlope

pavilion103 said:


> Depends what timeframe you are talking as to bullish or bearish I guess.
> 
> But I see things a little differently.
> Resistance ahead in the 5500-5550 area.
> My default position is always caution around this sort of resistance.
> 
> I wouldn't see this as bullish unless it breaks through the 5550 area and then probably pulls back either intra-day or on the daily to test these recent highs as a support area.
> 
> Until then I am going on record saying this looks bearish to me and if I was looking for a position trade I'd be looking for a good low-risk setup between here and just below the 5550 area.
> 
> Time will tell.




Agree that it needs to break out of the 5530-50 range for the correction short to be completed. 
A number of the futures markets are treading sideways (bigger picture EOD charts), so will be interesting to see which way it swings.
Ayway I retain my Bias as up, down, or sideways.


----------



## LinRegSlope

pavilion103 said:


> if I was looking for a position trade I'd be looking for a good low-risk setup between here and just below the 5550 area.



When you refer to position trade, I take it you are referring to a Swing Trade over larger timeframes, i.e. hourly, 4 hourly etc? Just curious.
I use the 30 min chart, and sometimes a 15 min chart, on the SPI as a guide for the current short term trend, but use 3 range bars intraday for setups, entries and exits. My average intraday profit target is small, with very tight even smaller stops (trailing).
Like you say all depends on the timeframe, and to add to this the objective for the trade.


----------



## CanOz

Big call to be bearish right now, but make enough calls and you're bound to get one right yeah? Lets look at the various future contracts around the world....

These are daily's....Dollar Index, US Bonds, VIX(weekly), DAX, FTSE, EUROSTOXX, RUSSELL, S&P, DJ, HANG SENG, KOSPI, NIKKEI225, and the SPI


----------



## CanOz

Here are the rest....it will take a few posts...


----------



## CanOz

Here are the last ones...

So for all these markets, the Dollar index is in a bracket and could break higher, a bearish sign for indices?

Bonds have been in a strong uptrend and just pulled back, start of a bracket?

The VIX is a weekly and its near all time lows? Contrarian indicator of complacency?

The DAX has just broke out of a bracket and is nearing all time highs...

The FTSE has just broke out of a flag, technically still in the bracket, major uptrend, near all time highs...

Eurostoxx - just broke out of a bracket near all time highs...

The TF, the Russell 3000 has been in a significant downtrend, the small caps have not down well, they are in a bracket now and could break higher, this would be bullish.

The ES or S&P 500 mini is grinding higher, close to all time high again....

The DJ is the same, grinding higher, close to all time highs, just broke out of a bracket...

The Hang Seng is powering higher after making a significant higher low....broke out of a small bracket a few days back...

Kospi is very similar, Channel? Just broke out of significant resistance...Asian markets are doing ok....

The Nikkei just put in a higher low off a double bottom....could break higher...

The SPI just off recent highs, uptrend still intact....

So you could be right, things may turn, but i would think we would need to bracket for a bit first, wouldn't expect a big turn on a dime.

The small caps in the US need to come around, why are bonds rallying? Interest rates are never going to rise again


----------



## CanOz

Here's another one, the NQ's....the Nasdaq really pulled back as risk came off the table, now its broke out of a little consolidation and rising higher....a test of the highs as well?


----------



## kid hustlr

FWIW, and I think this got touched on in another thread, the world bond rally is really interesting. It's caught a whole bunch of funds off guard I'd say and all the 'pros' were predicting US 10 yields @ 3.00% or higher by year end, they are currently @ 2.50% at a major support level after yields have really come off over the past few weeks/months.

Seems very strange for bonds to be rallying as we are so close to all time highs in so many equity markets. Something's gotta give.


----------



## pavilion103

LinRegSlope said:


> When you refer to position trade, I take it you are referring to a Swing Trade over larger timeframes, i.e. hourly, 4 hourly etc? Just curious.
> I use the 30 min chart, and sometimes a 15 min chart, on the SPI as a guide for the current short term trend, but use 3 range bars intraday for setups, entries and exits. My average intraday profit target is small, with very tight even smaller stops (trailing).
> Like you say all depends on the timeframe, and to add to this the objective for the trade.




I'm thinking longer term. 

At major tops and bottoms I look to hold a contract or two for the big move. 

I am still holding a FTSE contract from last Thursday and if it breaks and continues down I'll ride it for weeks if it keeps going. 

So we are talking completely different timeframes. 

I also trade intra-day and take maybe 2 or 3 good trades, close some out at S/R levels and maybe hold one overnight if I'm confident it will continue on.


----------



## pavilion103

Interesting charts. 
Thanks for those. 

If it does break higher, specifically thinking FTSE, THEN I will be looking for a longer term long position to go with my intra day trading. 

Interesting time ahead.


----------



## LinRegSlope

Canoz, thanks for the overall summary, very interesting. Broader scope than what I track, appreciate the input.


----------



## CanOz

LinRegSlope said:


> Canoz, thanks for the overall summary, very interesting. Broader scope than what I track, appreciate the input.




If you're trading anything, it doesn't hurt to have a look at the big picture. If we are going to have a significant risk off period then one would think Asian markets would start to take a hit. The bond rally is weird, but we live in weird times....I did notice that 2 out of the last three months bonds have risen into the month end, possibly for window dressing and possibly to take positions ahead of the NFP report at the first of the following month. Lets see if they rally into month end this time?

Here is the COT report for Bonds. The commercials are hedged up, so if there is a fall they're protected but continue to take heat as the price has moved up. The large speculators (asset managers) are quite long and if they need to get out there could be quite  move...Interesting how the small speculators took some profit off the table...Usually the funds are wrong...so to me its cr*p or gt off the pot for bonds...I'm leaning toward rally into the end of the month...

Maybe RY has a view on the bond cot?


----------



## MichaelD

pavilion103 said:


> I'm calling it now, as I have the last couple of weeks. It all looks very bearish to me.



Biased by the fact that you still hold a short position?

Just curious.

Being persistently bearish around all time highs in my view is fighting the trend, mean reversion nothwithstanding. "Picking the top" - not quite as futile as bottom picking, but not far off.

Right now, I'm treading very lightly. Very small position sizes. In and out quickly. Long and short. Mostly long. Waiting and watching.

ps letting forum posters influence your trading is a VERY BAD THING. Just sayin' that in advance.


----------



## MichaelD

ps IG Clients seriously short at the moment.

That's good enough for me to think the market's heading higher and the shorts are in for a good whack of the pain stick.


----------



## beachlife

pavilion103 said:


> I'm thinking longer term.
> 
> At major tops and bottoms I look to hold a contract or two for the big move.




How do you know if a top/bottom is a major one?


----------



## pavilion103

MichaelD said:


> Biased by the fact that you still hold a short position?
> 
> Just curious.
> 
> Being persistently bearish around all time highs in my view is fighting the trend, mean reversion nothwithstanding. "Picking the top" - not quite as futile as bottom picking, but not far off.
> 
> Right now, I'm treading very lightly. Very small position sizes. In and out quickly. Long and short. Mostly long. Waiting and watching.
> 
> ps letting forum posters influence your trading is a VERY BAD THING. Just sayin' that in advance.




Not at all biased by the fact that I hold a short position. 
I got short in the first place because I thought it was bearish, not the other way around.
I've taken off intra-day positions at disciplined levels, trailing my stop on position trades at disiciplined levels. 
I'm not swinging and hoping here. 
I do my analysis. I move my stops accordingly. 
Like I said if FTSE breaks 6900 and re-tests it and holds, then I get long. 
No bias. 

May I also note that the last 3 or 5 times the FTSE has tested the 6800-6900 level it has failed and moved down a few hundred points. 

Support and resistance offer good R/R places to take a trade. 
It may work. 
It may not work. 
It won't work every time. 

I identified the previous high and made money on the way down. 
And a little bit of money on the one before that. 

I don't care whether the market is heading up or down. 
I analyse it and I take the position I feel best, whether it be long or short. I couldn't care less.


----------



## pavilion103

beachlife said:


> How do you know if a top/bottom is a major one?




You don't. 

But you place yourself in a position to capitalise if it is. 

You look at areas that are quite possibly market tops and bottoms. 

(btw I'm not talking about major tops, as in it will fall or rise thousands of points; I mean 300-500ish)

E.g. with the FTSE 6800-6900 level has been tested on a longer time frame multiple times and failed. 

So I look at this and think that it will need a lot of demand to break through. 
It is a POSSIBLE market top where price COULD fail again.

So I look for a short setup that is within my risk parameters and take it with the intention of holding longer IF starts to look bearish and CONTINUES to do so.


----------



## CanOz

Interesting that the FTSE's all time high on my back adjusted chart was December 31st 1999. The high was 6973.5...

These old highs may be created by different constituents but none the less they seem to be like a magnet...


----------



## cynic

beachlife said:


> How do you know if a top/bottom is a major one?




When I get a margin call from my broker - that's when I know it's major!


----------



## MichaelD

pavilion103 said:


> Not at all biased by the fact that I hold a short position.




How much open profit will you have given up if this position hits its stop?

I don't like my profitable short positions to hang around and get stale. For me, I'd rather get in, ride the initial downwards movement very hard, then get out quickly.


----------



## pavilion103

MichaelD said:


> How much open profit will you have given up if this position hits its stop?  I don't like my profitable short positions to hang around and get stale. For me, I'd rather get in, ride the initial downwards movement very hard, then get out quickly.




I like to have a runner most of the time. If it's a significant level then maybe more.

From the 6790 level I can give back 72 points profit if I get stopped.
Given that many nights I can make 40-50 points it's not that significant.

Only holding this because of the resistance level.

But u agree with you.
My ideal trade is quick. 30-40 points and then out. Multiplied by 2 contracts profit can add up. As I get more and more consistent I aim to take 3.
3 x 30 is better than attempting 1 x 90.

I often reverse my intra day trades also when I like the setup.


----------



## pavilion103

Sorry 92 not 72.


----------



## pavilion103

Michael, the other reason for the runner is that I can leave it without watching the screen if need be. 

If I happen to get on a large move I can leave it and it passively makes money over weeks. I'll move stops sensibly though of course.


----------



## pavilion103

Having said that, it's the exception, not the rule for me. I don't look for runners every night. Only when I feel a good chance to hold for a few days or longer.


----------



## MichaelD

pavilion103 said:


> From the 6790 level I can give back 72 points profit if I get stopped.






pavilion103 said:


> Sorry 92 not 72.




FWIW, to me that's a *mind-bogglingly large* amount of giveback, especially on a short index position.

My trailing stops give back 5-10 points at most and I still capture 50%+ or more of the meat of the outlier moves.


----------



## LinRegSlope

MichaelD said:


> How much open profit will you have given up if this position hits its stop?
> 
> I don't like my profitable short positions to hang around and get stale. For me, I'd rather get in, ride the initial downwards movement very hard, then get out quickly.




Tend to agree, preference for shorts is even tighter stops. Not interested in holding thru a bounce which turns into a reversal and therefore gives up any hard earned profits.


----------



## LinRegSlope

MichaelD said:


> My trailing stops give back 5-10 points at most and I still capture 50%+ or more of the meat of the outlier moves.




On the FTSE, or in general? For the SPI intraday my initial and trailing stop is only 5 points, but my PTs are small as well.

As I mentioned earlier everyone's objective is different. Intraday trading objective for me is cashflow / income.


----------



## MichaelD

LinRegSlope said:


> On the FTSE, or in general? For the SPI intraday my initial and trailing stop is only 5 points, but my PTs are small as well.




I only trade the SPI (well, the Australia 200 Cash IG equivalent thereof).


----------



## DeepState

CanOz said:


> Here is the COT report for Bonds. The commercials are hedged up, so if there is a fall they're protected but continue to take heat as the price has moved up. The large speculators (asset managers) are quite long and if they need to get out there could be quite  move...Interesting how the small speculators took some profit off the table...Usually the funds are wrong...so to me its cr*p or gt off the pot for bonds...I'm leaning toward rally into the end of the month...
> 
> Maybe RY has a view on the bond cot?




Looking only at COT and nothing else, you will see Large Spec increasing positions against market makers each time the bond price rises.  Large Spec includes a lot of insurance companies who need to hedge their liabilities.  The lower the interest rates go, the more of this stuff they need to buy as their risk buffer is eroded.  Also, other investors are in a similar position like the massive DB funds who invest in bonds and also need to buy more bonds as yields decline to hedge their actuarial liabilities which grow as rates fall.  The long synthetic exposures get swapped out into physical at some stage, but you see the matching changes with interest rates.

To me, Large Spec movements are a lagging indicator.  They are reacting to changes in yield...not forecasting it.

Also, the COT reports are normally used for commodity situations where hedges are placed on expected delivery of real goods.  Such goods normally trade with backwardation as a result.  Very little is used to hedge by market makers.  Hence extreme movements in COT means something which is different to bonds where there is no natural position for the market makers (seen here as the natural hedgers - but they are not quite the same as their book changes depending on inventory).


----------



## pavilion103

Looking to possibly take one off if 6805 gets taken out.

I can't be silly about this. There isn't the level of weakness I require to hold both if that level gets taken out.


----------



## CanOz

DeepState said:


> Looking only at COT and nothing else, you will see Large Spec increasing positions against market makers each time the bond price rises.  Large Spec includes a lot of insurance companies who need to hedge their liabilities.  The lower the interest rates go, the more of this stuff they need to buy as their risk buffer is eroded.  Also, other investors are in a similar position like the massive DB funds who invest in bonds and also need to buy more bonds as yields decline to hedge their actuarial liabilities which grow as rates fall.  The long synthetic exposures get swapped out into physical at some stage, but you see the matching changes with interest rates.
> 
> To me, Large Spec movements are a lagging indicator.  They are reacting to changes in yield...not forecasting it.
> 
> Also, the COT reports are normally used for commodity situations where hedges are placed on expected delivery of real goods.  Such goods normally trade with backwardation as a result.  Very little is used to hedge by market makers.  Hence extreme movements in COT means something which is different to bonds where there is no natural position for the market makers (seen here as the natural hedgers - but they are not quite the same as their book changes depending on inventory).




Thanks RY, appreciate your view. I won't waste anymore time with the COT for bonds...


----------



## LinRegSlope

MichaelD said:


> I only trade the SPI (well, the Australia 200 Cash IG equivalent thereof).




Have you considered TradeDirect365. They have a product that tracks actual SPI market data, so the bid/ask is the same as the SPI futures contract. It is however a CFD and with a Market Maker. I'm trialling it at the moment with a few trades here and there, due to the low margin compared to my IB account requirements (TD365 is approx $800 margin intraday or overnight per contact as opposed to IB's approx 7k per contract - due to regulatory changes last year for margin on Aus products). Trade commission is comparable with IB when trading equivalent $ value.


----------



## MichaelD

LinRegSlope said:


> Have you considered TradeDirect365. They have a product that tracks actual SPI market data, so the bid/ask is the same as the SPI futures contract.



Right at the moment I am happy with the instrument I trade. I know its specific behaviours and quirks very well. There is no compelling need for me to change, particularly to another OTC Market Maker.

The IG Australia 200 Cash tracks the SPI tick-for-tick. It's just offset a little bit.


----------



## LinRegSlope

MichaelD said:


> Right at the moment I am happy with the instrument I trade. I know its specific behaviours and quirks very well. There is no compelling need for me to change, particularly to another OTC Market Maker.
> 
> The IG Australia 200 Cash tracks the SPI tick-for-tick. It's just offset a little bit.




No problem, I just noticed on a few of the charts you have posted the difference sometimes being a good 10-20 points.
Completely relate to what you are saying. It took me years to work through the mountain load of products and platforms before finally finding the right products and platform.


----------



## cynic

LinRegSlope said:


> No problem, I just noticed on a few of the charts you have posted the difference sometimes being a good 10-20 points.
> Completely relate to what you are saying. It took me years to work through the mountain load of products and platforms before finally finding the right products and platform.




I think you'll find that what you're observing is the difference between the "cash" and the "forward" contracts.


----------



## pavilion103

I just subscribed to the SPI (free) and DAX futures ($12 EURO per month).

Time to expand the horizons a little beyond just the FTSE. 

I will probably study these for a couple of months before actually trading them. 

With the FTSE I save every day's 3 min chart and the daily chart every night. 

I'll probably do something similar with these and give myself a couple of months to get a feel for them. 

Any advice I'm happy to hear. 



I hear a lot that the DAX moves much faster than the FTSE and is about $38 AUD per every 1 point move so much more risk than the FTSE. 

I don't know much about the SPI. It doesn't look like it behaves too differently to the FTSE. I'd have to study it a lot more though.


----------



## Newt

Will be interested to hear your experiences with the extra instruments Pav, or learn from experience of others familiar with DAX, SPI (or HSI).  US market is never going to work for my body clock.

Seems to make a lot of sense to be watching other markets even while honing skills in a single instrument (FTSE).


----------



## pavilion103

Newt said:


> Will be interested to hear your experiences with the extra instruments Pav, or learn from experience of others familiar with DAX, SPI (or HSI).  US market is never going to work for my body clock.  Seems to make a lot of sense to be watching other markets even while honing skills in a single instrument (FTSE).




Yeh body clock makes US tough.
If I wasn't working and I was on for the first hour from 11pm to 12 or so and could leave a trade running, I'd consider it, but definitely not for me right now.

I'm looking forward to exploring the others.
I will keep posting my journey.


----------



## pavilion103

SPI looking a bit weak on open.

Important position on the chart too.

Chart doesn't look as strong as some others suggest IMO!


----------



## LinRegSlope

As expected due to the holidays in the UK and the US tonight the SPI is fairly directionless. One small loss, tempted to sit it out today?


----------



## CanOz

LinRegSlope said:


> As expected due to the holidays in the UK and the US tonight the SPI is fairly directionless. One small loss, tempted to sit it out today?




_sometimes no trade is the best trade....
_


----------



## LinRegSlope

pavilion103 said:


> SPI looking a bit weak on open.
> 
> Important position on the chart too.
> 
> Chart doesn't look as strong as some others suggest IMO!




What timeframe are you looking at?

30 min chart below @ 10:48 EST


----------



## pavilion103

LinRegSlope said:


> What timeframe are you looking at?  30 min chart below @ 10:48 EST  <img src="https://www.aussiestockforums.com/forums/attachment.php?attachmentid=58118"/>




That's a good one.
At the top and showing some weakness.
But interesting to see the follow through.


----------



## CanOz

pavilion103 said:


> That's a good one.
> At the top and showing some weakness.
> But interesting to see the follow through.




With the Hang Seng and H Shares due to open in 15 minutes you could well see some weakness as the SPI gets led around like a little puppy...


----------



## pavilion103

CanOz said:


> With the Hang Seng and H Shares due to open in 15 minutes you could well see some weakness as the SPI gets led around like a little puppy...




Haha all new to me. 
Will watch.


----------



## CanOz

pavilion103 said:


> Haha all new to me.
> Will watch.




The Asian Markets aren't doing too bad...gap up...


----------



## pavilion103

Intra day SPI If it was FTSE id take the setup at 18, stop 24.

Does it only move in 1 point increments


----------



## MichaelD

pavilion103 said:


> SPI looking a bit weak on open.
> 
> Important position on the chart too.
> 
> Chart doesn't look as strong as some others suggest IMO!




I still believe this assessment is primarily because you want the market to fall to prove yourself right, as opposed to letting price action answer the question.

ps IG Clients agree with you, Pav. Selling quite aggressively at the moment & 70% short. Makes me feel more bullish.



LinRegSlope said:


> As expected due to the holidays in the UK and the US tonight the SPI is fairly directionless. One small loss, tempted to sit it out today?




Agreed. Not much happening. +5 for the day. Unlikely to be anything much else until we get direction from elsewhere.


----------



## LinRegSlope

pavilion103 said:


> Intra day SPI If it was FTSE id take the setup at 18, stop 24.
> 
> Does it only move in 1 point increments




Mostly. The spread typically during the day session is 1 point, but can be significantly larger during the night session.


----------



## pavilion103

MichaelD said:


> I still believe this assessment is primarily because you want the market to fall to prove yourself right, as opposed to letting price action answer the question.
> 
> ps IG Clients agree with you, Pav. Selling quite aggressively at the moment & 70% short. Makes me feel more bullish.
> 
> 
> 
> Agreed. Not much happening. +5 for the day. Unlikely to be anything much else until we get direction from elsewhere.





Michael, I don't believe so. I am analysing price action alone. But we can agree to disagree. 

Either I will be vindicated in my current analysis of price action.
Or I will be wrong and learn from it. 

As price action changes, so will my opinions. I don't care whether I'm long or short.


----------



## LinRegSlope

MichaelD said:


> Agreed. Not much happening. +5 for the day. Unlikely to be anything much else until we get direction from elsewhere.




-5 for the day. Appears to be struggling to get up past this 20-30 area, but then again low volume so no real weight behind this comment.


----------



## LinRegSlope

pavilion103 said:


> Intra day SPI If it was FTSE id take the setup at 18, stop 24




At what time was this based on, just curious so I can check it out on the charts?


----------



## pavilion103

LinRegSlope said:


> At what time was this based on, just curious so I can check it out on the charts?




5 min chart. 

Just after it tested the highs.


----------



## LinRegSlope

pavilion103 said:


> 5 min chart.
> 
> Just after it tested the highs.




Ok got it. Had a setup to go short around the same area (entry would have been @ 5516), but passed it up due to the lacklustre nature of the price action today. Wise decision as it would have got stopped out.

Fence sitting for now ..........................


----------



## MichaelD

pavilion103 said:


> Either I will be vindicated in my current analysis of price action.
> Or I will be wrong and learn from it.




Some challenging food for thought.

You're already wrong no matter what happens with price from here on in.

I believe there is no circumstance with the small size you are able to trade where you should allow 90 points of profit on a single contract to potentially evaporate.

1/3 - 1/2 of your trading size is currently locked up when it needn't be.


----------



## pavilion103

MichaelD said:


> Some challenging food for thought.
> 
> You're already wrong no matter what happens with price from here on in.
> 
> *I believe* there is no circumstance with the small size you are able to trade where you should allow 90 points of profit on a single contract to potentially evaporate.
> 
> 1/3 - 1/2 of your trading size is currently locked up when it needn't be.




I agree with this part. This is your belief. 

You need to take into consideration time frame when trading. 
If holding for a longer term position trade, more risk will need to be taken. 
If price moves 300 or 400 points then risking 90 in open profit would mean I only need to be right 20%-25% of the time for these particular moves. 


The only potential thing that I have done wrong is leave the position over a 3 day weekend.
That can be questioned.

I am open to opinions and views but I have no time for someone stating as fact that I am wrong because I am holding longer than they would.


It would be easy to come on here, state my own opinions as fact, take shots at other people and simply post hindsight trades and sentiment surveys.


----------



## pavilion103

DAX showing some real strength here. 

Maybe cause for concern about holding over the 3 day weekend.


----------



## LinRegSlope

Some of the recent conversations begs me to ask the question - do you have a trading plan set in stone regarding stops / profit targets before you enter the trade? I never enter a trade without knowing where I intend to get out, for profit or loss!

On a lighter note, will be interesting to see if the SPI tests the 5560 resistance area, and what plays out from there ....................


----------



## beachlife

pavilion103 said:


> DAX showing some real strength here.
> 
> Maybe cause for concern about holding over the 3 day weekend.




Doesnt being concerned contradict your previous post where you said you are happy tp risk 90 points for a 200-300 potential profit.  If your long term analysis says stay short then why be concerned


----------



## pavilion103

beachlife said:


> Doesnt being concerned contradict your previous post where you said you are happy tp risk 90 points for a 200-300 potential profit.  If your long term analysis says stay short then why be concerned




I mentioned that holding over 3 days was the concern, not the fact that I had 90 open profit. 

Michael was stating that at any time, me having 90 open profit is wrong. 
I said no it isn't. 
The only thing that may be wrong is holding over a 3 day weekend. 

Can you see the difference?


----------



## beachlife

pavilion103 said:


> I mentioned that holding over 3 days was the concern, not the fact that I had 90 open profit.
> 
> Michael was stating that at any time, me having 90 open profit is wrong.
> I said no it isn't.
> The only thing that may be wrong is holding over a 3 day weekend.
> 
> Can you see the difference?




I get that, what I dont get is what difference one non trading day makes to your long term view.


----------



## pavilion103

beachlife said:


> I get that, what I dont get is what difference one non trading day makes to your long term view.




Well there was always 2 possibilities:

1) I remain in

2) I get stopped out



With the DAX gapping up and moving strong, I'm thinking the FTSE could follow and I get stopped out. 

I don't predict what will happen. 
I put myself in a position and with positive expectancy over time I make profit. 

Always the chance of getting stopped on one individual trade.


----------



## pavilion103

To add to that the long term view could change substantially with one trading day. 

If the FTSE gapped above the highs, then all of a sudden I would not be looking for shorts. 

I'd be waiting to see how it responds after the gap and then potentially look for longs. 


I said it all along. 
Until the resistance has broken I remain short in my opinion. 
If it does get broken, I reassess.


----------



## cynic

beachlife said:


> I get that, what I dont get is what difference one non trading day makes to your long term view.




To the best of my understanding, each additional non trading day represents an increased amount of time (and hence opportunity) in which precipitous events can occur.


----------



## beachlife

You have missed the point, I was trying to get you to question your concern.  If you have a plan with a positive expectancy emotions like concern shouldnt be getting under your skin.  Who knows, maybe the US will tank tonight, take the DAX and FTSE with it and the non trading day has kept you in a trade that might have been stopped out, or maybe it will have a 300 point rally and all your profits will be gone at the open tomorrow.  Who knows, who cares.

There is no point worrying, hoping or guessing, just trade what you see.


----------



## CanOz

The US is not trading tonight...Memorial Day.

I agree that holding over the weekend needs a specific plan, its like trading another time frame. Pav said he's good with that, planned for it, except he neglected the holiday. So the next time he plans to hold he checks the calendar.

The DAX is up over 3/4's of 1%, there has clearly been a reaction to the weekend news, then the gap has caused shorts to cover, driving prices even higher.....It will be interesting to see if this closes the some of the gap before the FTSE opens tomorrow.

Hope you're not sweating it too much Pav!


----------



## MichaelD

pavilion103 said:


> Michael was stating that at any time, me having 90 open profit is wrong.




No, not at all what I said.

You are trading 2-3 contracts in total.

Letting 90 points of open profit get away from you with 1 of your very few available contracts is, in my opinion, simply wrong, even more so when short an index.

If this was 1 contract out of 50 you were playing with - no problem.

My concern is with both the open profits you are willing to give up AND the opportunity cost of holding given your position size limits.


----------



## pavilion103

MichaelD said:


> No, not at all what I said.  You are trading 2-3 contracts in total.  Letting 90 points of open profit get away from you with 1 of your very few available contracts is, in my opinion, simply wrong, even more so when short an index.  If this was 1 contract out of 50 you were playing with - no problem.  My concern is with both the open profits you are willing to give up AND the opportunity cost of holding given your position size limits.




I know that it is 1 out of 2-3 contracts now, but in the overall profile of trades, over months, it is 1 of very few.

This is not at all a regular play, but rather at times that I believe there is strong potential. Because I believe that the potential payoff is higher here, I am prepared to take more risk here.

If you follow my trading over months, you will see the standard is something like: take 2 contracts in the first hour. Take one off when it looks weak/strong for say 30 points. Let the other go IF the market is trending well. Then exit if this one doesn't look good, maybe 40-50 points or maybe leave over night for 1 night and exit in the morning.

Not uncommon to bank 30-80 points on a night and have it closed out in the morning (before trading hours close).

For me this is the standard approach in most conditions.


People may agree or disagree with this current play. But it only in specific conditions which rarely occur.


----------



## CanOz

I see what you're trying to do, Tech talked about it many times. You're trying to nail an outlier, a life changing trade. You're other trades help cover the costs of these here and there. 

I'm not sure though, that just trading the way you do, day in and day out you wouldn't be better off. But still trying to get my head around the strategy.


----------



## pavilion103

CanOz said:


> I see what you're trying to do, Tech talked about it many times. You're trying to nail an outlier, a life changing trade. You're other trades help cover the costs of these here and there.  I'm not sure though, that just trading the way you do, day in and day out you wouldn't be better off. But still trying to get my head around the strategy.




It's a once in many months play.  If I make 5000 points in a year. I might risk 100 points twice a year on a play like this (rough example).    

Notice that first and fired most I aim to manage risk so that even when it fails worst case is break even MOST times.


----------



## pavilion103

If this bar closes near the high on the DAX I no longer have a short opinion.

Depending on the FTSE tomorrow night I may also abandon attempts at a longer term short.

I will analyse bar by bar as I always do.


----------



## barney

pavilion103 said:


> If this bar closes near the high on the DAX *I no longer have a short opinion*.





Over 1% push on the DAX with no US and no FTSE "help" into higher highs looks like the start of a retailer trap to me. 

DAX has channelled for several days with no accumulation and looks short term unsustainable. 

Personally looking a range to develop then a drop back to previous range highs at least.  ie. Now looking for Shorts at any Range tops.  Interesting to see what develops.


----------



## pavilion103

barney said:


> Over 1% push on the DAX with no US and no FTSE "help" into higher highs looks like the start of a retailer trap to me.  DAX has channelled for several days with no accumulation and looks short term unsustainable.  Personally looking a range to develop then a drop back to previous range highs at least.  ie. Now looking for Shorts at any Range tops.  Interesting to see what develops.




I'm not saying the short play is over but I wouldn't jump in right now.

I am still keeping an eye out for a potential opportunity to the short side but I'd need some further confirmation now.

If this continues with strength I'd look then I'd look moreso for longs!


----------



## CanOz

Its just a low liquidity squeeze dudes...Think about it, if you had been short the DAX going into the weekend and wanted to get out when the market opens, after a gap up, what premium for that are you going to pay as you stand in line??

Since i believe its short covering ,the lower value areas WILL get tested sooner rather than later


----------



## pavilion103

CanOz said:


> Its just a low liquidity squeeze dudes...Think about it, if you had been short the DAX going into the weekend and wanted to get out when the market opens, after a gap up, what premium for that are you going to pay as you stand in line??  Since i believe its short covering ,the lower value areas WILL get tested sooner rather than later




I agree with this.
I'm not trading DAX anyway.
But if I was, I'd need a new setup. 

FTSE on the other hand is still holding well below the highs. I think this one is still good for a short if a setup appears tonight.


----------



## barney

pavilion103 said:


> I'm not saying the short play is over but I wouldn't jump in right now.
> 
> I am still keeping an eye out for a potential opportunity to the short side but I'd need some further confirmation now.
> 
> If this continues with *strength* I'd look then I'd look moreso for longs!




Yeah I agree with that Pav, but only if the "strength" you mention is obviously buying strength ...... Its certainly not a Short trade at the moment, but I think the Professional push into new highs gives yesterday is important information relative to the next round of price action (1/2 weeks) .. Certainly interesting at the moment.

ps. Just noticed the big gap up on the FTSE  .... Hope you didn't get hit too hard on that.


----------



## pavilion103

barney said:


> Yeah I agree with that Pav, but only if the "strength" you mention is obviously buying strength ...... Its certainly not a Short trade at the moment, but I think the Professional push into new highs gives yesterday is important information relative to the next round of price action (1/2 weeks) .. Certainly interesting at the moment.  ps. Just noticed the big gap up on the FTSE  .... Hope you didn't get hit too hard on that.




I agree.
I meant if strength follows. Bad wording.
Interesting week following that push up.

It cost me 40 points total on the 2 contracts.
It didn't even take out my stop though but I exited both positions given that my stop was only about 20 points away and I wasn't willing to risk that on pre-open price action (which would have taken me out as it turned out).

Back in now for 1 contract at 6830.


----------



## MichaelD

Last post. It's been fun.

Some of my "guerrilla" rules of survival.

1. Never risk gapping a profit into a loss.

2. Never let a handsome profit evaporate.

3. If everyone else is zigging, zag.


Happy trading all.


----------



## pavilion103

MichaelD said:


> Last post. It's been fun.  Some of my "guerrilla" rules of survival.  1. Never risk gapping a profit into a loss.  2. Never let a handsome profit evaporate.  3. If everyone else is zigging, zag.  Happy trading all.




Lol


----------



## pavilion103

My Internet forum posting rules:

1. Never be a keyboard warrior


----------



## cynic

MichaelD said:


> Last post. It's been fun.
> 
> ...



Please don't abandon this thread Michael. 

I've been enjoying your contributions and although there can be significant contextual variances in trading styles and/or methodologies the ensuing debates can at times be very illuminating and worthwhile.


----------



## barney

MichaelD said:


> Last post. Happy trading all.





Why the Last post Mike??  Your input has been very much appreciated.

Of course if you are off to spend the remainder of your days on a boat in the Bahamas, I understand


PS  What Mr Cynic said above


----------



## beachlife

pavilion103 said:


> My Internet forum posting rules:
> 
> 1. Never be a keyboard warrior




Wow I think you just blew an opportunity to learn from someone that actually trades for a living.


----------



## CanOz

And so it goes.....

People are people, some will come and some will go....

Michael clearly has better things to do with his time....like make money.


----------



## pavilion103

beachlife said:


> Wow I think you just blew an opportunity to learn from someone that actually trades for a living.




Did that from Tech who contributed 10 times as much as this guy.


----------



## LinRegSlope

30 min SPI Futures chart. 5560 resistance is still to be tested. Momentum has slowed. The question is whether it is just having a breather or starting to roll over?


----------



## LinRegSlope

pavilion103 said:


> Did that from Tech who contributed 10 times as much as this guy.




I certainly don't share the same opinion!


----------



## pavilion103

I dunno. Maybe he left in case the market does push down now and he looks silly for criticizing people for having a short bias and telling them that it's only because they are in a current short trade.

But that's a forum. Many come. Many go.
The discussion continues.


----------



## pavilion103

LinRegSlope said:


> 30 min SPI Futures chart. 5560 resistance is still to be tested. Momentum has slowed. The question is whether it is just having a breather or starting to roll over?  <img src="https://www.aussiestockforums.com/forums/attachment.php?attachmentid=58140"/>




Possibly.
Wait for further confirmation I guess.

FTSE struggled a bit last night. 
Interesting few days ahead.


----------



## beachlife

pavilion103 said:


> Did that from Tech who contributed 10 times as much as this guy.




How can someone that supplements his trading with income from his business teach you about trading for a living without the safety net of a second income to cover losses?  It a totally different pressure.  Just the pressure of a trading comp with Can turned him to mush.

Don't take this the wrong way, but this thread is over 12 months old, you are still working, and barely comfortable with trading more than 1 contract.  If you are happy with that fine, but if you aspire to become a full time trader maybe you should reconsider who you listen to.  Please take as a friendly


----------



## kid hustlr

Beachlife care to explain your trading history and where you are currently at in the development process?


----------



## pavilion103

beachlife said:


> How can someone that supplements his trading with income from his business teach you about trading for a living without the safety net of a second income to cover losses?  It a totally different pressure.  Just the pressure of a trading comp with Can turned him to mush.
> 
> Don't take this the wrong way, but this thread is over 12 months old, you are still working, and barely comfortable with trading more than 1 contract.  If you are happy with that fine, but if you aspire to become a full time trader maybe you should reconsider who you listen to.  Please take as a friendly




The first step in teaching someone is to actually provide practical content rather than psychological theories and posting a few arrows on a chart saying I entered here. 
Tech provide practical trading techniques that were applied in real time and covered a range of areas from entry, risk management, position sizing etc. 

Michael may or may not actually trade a live account and he provided philosophical thoughts that are good, but have zero practical application on their own. 


Wow. You really have no idea. 
I started trading futures less than 12 months ago. 
In that time I am making a consistent return. 
I am making as much trading as I am in my 4 day a week job (and this is with just one contract!). 
I have recently stepped up to 2 in which case I may begin to make double what I am in my 4 -day a week job. 
In 12 months I would say that is bloody impressive and well ahead of schedule. 

In 12-18 months I could be trading 4 contracts making over $200,000 p.a. and you'll still be trying to sink in the boots. 


I find this so hilarious. 
I am succeeding in my first year of futures trading. Will be able to leave work within 18 months. And still people stick in the boots. 
Imagine if I was losing money


----------



## pavilion103

Beachlife, until you actually start contributing something of value to this forum as I am (countless successful trade examples and open and honest discussion about my success and failures), I suggest you either shut up entirely or tone down your criticisms. 

Look at the threads I have started, conversations I have generated and my input. 

Look at yours. 

I am not one to have a go at people, however when people start getting personal for no reason (despite my success for all to see), then I am not going to just let comments pass by. 

Do yourself a favour. Go have a shower, freshen up and come back with a new attitude mate.


----------



## VSntchr

beachlife said:


> Don't take this the wrong way, but this thread is over 12 months old, you are still working, and barely comfortable with trading more than 1 contract.  If you are happy with that fine, but if you aspire to become a full time trader maybe you should reconsider who you listen to.  Please take as a friendly





Plenty of profits can be made with 1 or 2 contracts...PAV has shown that in this thread.
Making 50 points a week on the FTSE is $900AUD...pretty good if you can do it sustainably and will only be sizing up from there....
Do not need to make $1m+ in the first year...


----------



## pavilion103

VSntchr said:


> Plenty of profits can be made with 1 or 2 contracts...PAV has shown that in this thread.
> Making 50 points a week on the FTSE is $900AUD...pretty good if you can do it sustainably and will only be sizing up from there....
> *Do not need to make $1m+ in the first year*...




Exactly. 
But if there is someone who is then show me and I'll take some notes :

Being a dick to people really doesn't suit my personality. 
I'm not particularly good at it 

It is a little silly though that I cop crap on here after:
1) I'm so open and honest about my losses. I don't know too many who are on here.
2) I openly admit I'm on a learning journey and am far from an expert.
3) I go out of my way to post my own private analysis that I've invested hours in because of a few who say they enjoy it and benefit from it.
4) I'm clearly succeeding in my first year.
5) I've openly encouraged the facilitation of ideas.


I don't mind critique of my ideas (as there has been all along).
To be attacked personally is just not acceptable. 
It is a minority who ruin it for everyone.


But sooner or later the results speak for themselves (they already are) and then there is no defense for the haters 

For those who want to talk trading and benefit from this thread, let's proceed........


----------



## VSntchr

pavilion103 said:


> let's proceed........




Looks like the SPI is hitting that resistance level suggested earlier in the thread...has had a pretty good run up to it since the open...


----------



## pavilion103

VSntchr said:


> Looks like the SPI is hitting that resistance level suggested earlier in the thread...has had a pretty good run up to it since the open...




I've only had the data for a week but the price action looks a lot choppier than the FTSE. Is this the case?

I also notice some really low volume days on the daily. Are they due to anything?

I have a lot to learn about the SPI.


----------



## LinRegSlope

MichaelD said:


> Last post. It's been fun.
> 
> Some of my "guerrilla" rules of survival.
> 
> 1. Never risk gapping a profit into a loss.
> 
> 2. Never let a handsome profit evaporate.
> 
> 3. If everyone else is zigging, zag.
> 
> 
> Happy trading all.




I'm joining Michael, being a full time trader I have better things to do.


----------



## VSntchr

pavilion103 said:


> I've only had the data for a week but the price action looks a lot choppier than the FTSE. Is this the case?
> 
> I also notice some really low volume days on the daily. Are they due to anything?
> 
> I have a lot to learn about the SPI.




To be completely honest, I don't know much about it...I don't trade it..I just watch the price action - although I have been watching a bit more lately as my trading strategy is quiet in times of low volatility such as now.

My observations are that we generally get a lead when the Hang Seng opens at 11:15am and when it comes out of lunch at 3pm (happening right now)..

Also, my data for asx is only through a CFD so there is no volume hence I cannot comment on that...


----------



## cynic

pavilion103 said:


> For those who want to talk trading and benefit from this thread, let's proceed........




+1
Further to the overall discussion, I'd just like to opine that anyone actively trading the futures markets will likely have gained some perspective from their experience. Whether they're flushing away their hard earned, or deriving an income (be it primary, secondary or perhaps even tertiary) doesn't detract from the fact that they will have definitely acquired some knowledge in the process. As such any active trader is likely to have something worthwhile to offer to the discussion.

Even classic examples of trading mistakes pursuant to inexperience may be worthy of examination. (One can reduce the trading education bill considerably by learning from the mistakes of others!)

So to those participants of this thread that only want to hear from winners - okay, I get it! You want to know what to do and you want to hear it from those that already know it! 

Just be aware that one can also benefit from hearing about what not to do from those unfortunate enough to have already done so!


----------



## pavilion103

cynic said:


> +1 Further to the overall discussion, I'd just like to opine that anyone actively trading the futures markets will likely have gained some perspective from their experience. Whether they're flushing away their hard earned, or deriving an income (be it primary, secondary or perhaps even tertiary) doesn't detract from the fact that they will have definitely acquired some knowledge in the process. As such any active trader is likely to have something worthwhile to offer to the discussion.  Even classic examples of trading mistakes pursuant to inexperience may be worthy of examination. (One can reduce the trading education bill considerably by learning from the mistakes of others!)  So to those participants of this thread that only want to hear from winners - okay, I get it! You want to know what to do and you want to hear it from those that already know it!  Just be aware that one can also benefit from hearing about what not to do from those unfortunate enough to have already done so!




And that is EXACTLY why I post the good and bad.

The thread is about he journey of transitioning to futures trading.

Good thoughts Cynic.


----------



## VSntchr

Down, up, sideways.....dancing on the spot tonight for the FOOTS!


----------



## pavilion103

VSntchr said:


> Down, up, sideways.....dancing on the spot tonight for the FOOTS!




Boring


----------



## cynic

There was a time when I used to compare the FTSE to soporific sloths. 

I now believe that I was doing those activity challenged sloths an injustice! 

They are definitely much more lively - even when they're asleep!


----------



## 5oclock

pavilion103 said:


> And that is EXACTLY why I post the good and bad.
> 
> The thread is about he journey of transitioning to futures trading.
> 
> Good thoughts Cynic.




Keep posting Pav, this is a really worth while thread and its great that you are sharing the transition with us!


----------



## pavilion103

Thanks mate. If there are interested posters I'll continue.


----------



## beachlife

kid hustlr said:


> Beachlife care to explain your trading history and where you are currently at in the development process?




My history is too long to go into detail, but after lots of books, lots of courses, a few blown up accounts I am now trading without the saftey net of other regular income, and once that safety net went, its a whole new set of mind games to battle.  I have traded warrants, options, futures and now prefer cfd's for superior position sizing, which allows for faster compounding.  I mainly trade end of day but have been playing with the German index intraday for a few weeks to see if my daily system will work on a smaller time frame.  So far its consistantly inconsistant and reinforcing the view of the people that I listen to, which is that intra day trading is a dumb idea.  I see you want to be a prop trader, hope it goes well for you.



pavilion103 said:


> I don't mind critique of my ideas (as there has been all along).
> To be attacked personally is just not acceptable.



Yes you do.  All Michael did was suggest that you protect your open profits and you tell him to duck off.

Michael didnt attack you, I didnt attack you, you however rude, condescending and abusive.

I have nothing to learn from you so I will take your shut up option.


----------



## kid hustlr

beachlife said:


> My history is too long to go into detail, but after lots of books, lots of courses, a few blown up accounts I am now trading without the saftey net of other regular income, and once that safety net went, its a whole new set of mind games to battle.  I have traded warrants, options, futures and now prefer cfd's for superior position sizing, which allows for faster compounding.  I mainly trade end of day but have been playing with the German index intraday for a few weeks to see if my daily system will work on a smaller time frame.  So far its consistantly inconsistant and reinforcing the view of the people that I listen to, which is that intra day trading is a dumb idea.  I see you want to be a prop trader, hope it goes well for you.
> 
> So after a number of failed attempts you now trade CFD stocks end of day. Hardly inspiring. And you have the spine to have a dig at Pav who has had ridiculously good success for someone in there first year trading futures. He also beats a game you cant 12 months in.
> 
> Pav constantly provides charts, analysis and discussion points within this thread where you provide nothing, all you do is criticize AND YOU HAVE NOTHING TO BACK IT UP WITH.
> 
> 
> Yes you do.  All Michael did was suggest that you protect your open profits and you tell him to duck off.
> 
> Michael didnt attack you, I didnt attack you, you however rude, condescending and abusive.
> 
> I have nothing to learn from you so I will take your shut up option.
> 
> Outside of a sentiment indicator Micheal provided little analysis, Pav shows his trades, shows why he took them and opens up discussion. I assume because Michael traded CFD's you felt a connection with him because 'OMG if he can trade for a living using CFD's, so can I!' but the fact is no one learnt anything from what he wrote. Him going on about position sizing and risk management is one thing but without detailed information he's just another voice.




RED


----------



## pavilion103

Well even if some people don't think the analysis in this thread is worth it, the laughs are.


----------



## pavilion103

Is anyone able to enlighten me as to the volume action on the SPI?

On the daily chart, why are there (what appears to be) regularly (and spaced out) days where the volume is a tiny fraction of the other days?

This is nothing like I've seen before. I'm surious as to the reason.


----------



## kid hustlr

pavilion103 said:


> Is anyone able to enlighten me as to the volume action on the SPI?
> 
> On the daily chart, why are there (what appears to be) regularly (and spaced out) days where the volume is a tiny fraction of the other days?
> 
> This is nothing like I've seen before. I'm surious as to the reason.




Are you looking @ the SPI through IB?

I think I remember when i first got IB like 18 months ago I had a look @ the SPI and the volume was all off, I remember posting or starting a thread about it around here somewhere or something and then emailed IB asking them, got some dodgy reply about them 'working on it' Cam to the conclusion to not trust IB for SPI volume data.


----------



## pavilion103

kid hustlr said:


> Are you looking @ the SPI through IB?
> 
> I think I remember when i first got IB like 18 months ago I had a look @ the SPI and the volume was all off, I remember posting or starting a thread about it around here somewhere or something and then emailed IB asking them, got some dodgy reply about them 'working on it' Cam to the conclusion to not trust IB for SPI volume data.




Yeh bizarre. 

Intraday seems ok. 

Daily is a mess.


----------



## jmg86

Is it every 5 days or so?

Its probably printing the early Saturday morning SYCOM trading as its own day. You may have to adjust the ignore daily interval.

Good thread btw.


----------



## kid hustlr

jmg86 said:


> Is it every 5 days or so?
> 
> Its probably printing the early Saturday morning SYCOM trading as its own day. You may have to adjust the ignore daily interval.
> 
> Good thread btw.




yep this to from memory.


----------



## pavilion103

jmg86 said:


> Is it every 5 days or so?
> 
> Its probably printing the early Saturday morning SYCOM trading as its own day. You may have to adjust the ignore daily interval.
> 
> Good thread btw.




Sounds about right. Thanks.


----------



## pavilion103

The plan for me with the SPI is to take only very obvious setups in the first hour and get stop to BE asap. 

Maybe a profit take target or just monitor it periodically. 

I could easily get away with placing a trade in the morning and monitoring the initial stages to manage risk but I couldn't be too active during the day.


----------



## Wysiwyg

With regards to trading potential major/intermediate tops or bottoms for a position trade :-

*Price often returns to near the top/bottom or a slightly new high/low before changing trend completely.** This leaves the trader with a choice between holding as profits reduce or selling which is contrary to the initial reason to enter for position i.e. major/intermediate top or bottom.* I held positions short over 1.09 on the AUD/USD only to be spooked out. I held long positions on the ASX200 below 3300 points and got spooked out. 

I tried countering this frustration by hedging a position once in profit. This locks in profit but sooner rather than later one position has to be cut. This strategy did not work for me but it was satisfying watching price move against my original position with no loss. The game is over once either position is closed.


----------



## pavilion103

Wysiwyg said:


> With regards to trading potential major/intermediate tops or bottoms for a position trade :-
> 
> *Price often returns to near the top/bottom or a slightly new high/low before changing trend completely.** This leaves the trader with a choice between holding as profits reduce or selling which is contrary to the initial reason to enter for position i.e. major/intermediate top or bottom.* I held positions short over 1.09 on the AUD/USD only to be spooked out. I held long positions on the ASX200 below 3300 points and got spooked out.
> 
> I tried countering this frustration by hedging a position once in profit. This locks in profit but sooner rather than later one position has to be cut. This strategy did not work for me but it was satisfying watching price move against my original position with no loss. The game is over once either position is closed.




I think the payoff can be so good with these major top/bottoms that the regret of being panicked out is far greater than the regret of giving back open profit. Particularly if it is going against your original plan to capitalise on a big move. 

If you get in near the top and is moves initially in your favour it saves you a lot of effort and potential failed attempts to get back in for the big move. It takes a lot of the thinking and effort out of it. 

If it was a short; on the way down I would
1) Trade a contract long for any good intra day setups
2) Trade a contract short for any good intra day setups. 
(essentially trade the same as usual while holding 2 or 3 contracts). 

The ability to trade a long contract means you can hold the original position but in essence "save" any profit when the market finds temporary support and pushes back up. 


I am still looking to take a position trade at this top if a good opportunity presents. 

I think of the effort I would have saved had I sold 2 contracts at 6872 (I did this) and held (I didn't do this) at the high of 6881. 

I think there is potential opportunity now though and each night I will look for a trade. 
IF it moves in my favour heavily initially, I will hold.


----------



## elbee

pavilion103 said:


> Is anyone able to enlighten me as to the volume action on the SPI?
> 
> On the daily chart, why are there (what appears to be) regularly (and spaced out) days where the volume is a tiny fraction of the other days?
> 
> This is nothing like I've seen before. I'm surious as to the reason.




Mondays are often quiet on the SPI and overseas exchange holidays will dampen volume.


----------



## pavilion103

The FTSE chart is very interesting right now. 

Tight consolidations are usually followed by explosive action in either direction. 

The last 3 bars on the FTSE are exceptionally tight. 

Tues 27th May - Range 6813.5-6846.5 (33 point range)
Wed 28th May - Range 6821-6845 (24 point range)
Thurs 29th May - Range 6827.5-6844.5 (17 point range) - PRE OPEN

Essentially the last 2 days have been very tight range bars on reasonably low volume. 

Expect something to happen.


----------



## pavilion103

Is the DOW about to roll over?

Will this test of the recent little high fail?

Who knows? The next few days might paint a picture.


----------



## VSntchr

Burning a hole in the 6855 level atm...


----------



## pavilion103

VSntchr said:


> Burning a hole in the 6855 level atm...




I thought that it was setting up perfectly for a short at around 6852. 
Had a setup in place for 2 contracts. 
Price stagnated for too long to be a decent short so I cancelled them. 

I've taken 1 long @ 6859

We will see how it goes. 

Stop to 6858 very quickly. Either it takes off initially or I'm out. 

Bigger volume coming in. Something to happen here probably........


----------



## pavilion103

If that caught people out and it pushes down sharply I will be looking to the short side again.


----------



## pavilion103

Closed out.

Only looking at shorts now.


----------



## Boggo

Daily chart. A break through 6896 needed otherwise a repeat of the behaviour between 1 and 2 into the W.4 area is a possibility.

Just my 

(click to expand)


----------



## RADO

pavilion103 said:


> Sounds about right. Thanks.




Yeah I never noticed this before until you guys mentioned it but than again I never really look at daily charts at all. Here's a screenshot of IB vs IQfeed if anyone wants to compare.


----------



## pavilion103

Question about the SPI. 

I've got the hours that it is open. After 4pm it says that it closes for 30 mins and then is back on?
Are the only hours where it is active up until 4pm when it closes? After this is it thin?

Trying to get up to speed with the SPI. 

I am looking to keep an eye on the first hour or so each day (and take a peak when I feel like it) and take very few trades (but good setups). 


Also it seems like the SPI moves rather slowly?
I know the DAX is crazy and that is another level, but even compared to the FTSE the SPI seems quite slow. 
Thoughts?


----------



## cynic

My understanding is that SPI futures close for 30 minutes at 4:30 PM AEDST

Other than that, your general observations seem largely consistent with my more recent experience of SPI futures. (It used to have significantly more overnight volatility back in the good old days!)

Edit: I forgot that 4:30 PM equates to 4:00 PM in S.A.


----------



## pavilion103

Does anyone know what has happened on the SPI JUNE 14 contract? It has just about stopped. Looked like it's rolling over maybe?

But there is no volume on the SPI JUL 14 contract either. 

Anyone got any ideas?


Also are the SPI contracts changed monthly and not quarterly like the FTSE?


----------



## kid hustlr

Sep contract bud

roll ends soon I think close any june positions now

EDIT: cash settled so wouldn't be a disaster but can't see why you'd want a JUne position now. SPI traded quarterly contracts


----------



## pavilion103

OK I just saw there is a september contract with big volume. 

Not sure why there is a JUL one with 6 contracts traded in total?


----------



## kid hustlr

theres a contract for each month but all the volume trades quarterly. guessing the monthly stuff is there for random option settlement prices or something of the like. regardless just only every trade march/june/sep/dec


----------



## pavilion103

Boring week on FTSE. 

Started trading the SPI now. Good first week. 

I put it up on my phone when I'm at my desk and look to take one trade in the first hour (if it's there) checking maybe every 15 mins or so. Once I take profit I'm done for the day. 

20 points suits me fine unless it's a good trading day. 
Once I get to about 20 points I look to trail aggressively or take profits if price looks shaky. 

Very selective about these trades early on. 
Makes me more excited to get to work though


----------



## ThingyMajiggy

pavilion103 said:


> Boring week on FTSE.
> 
> Started trading the SPI now. Good first week.
> 
> I put it up on my phone when I'm at my desk and look to take one trade in the first hour (if it's there) checking maybe every 15 mins or so. Once I take profit I'm done for the day.
> 
> 20 points suits me fine unless it's a good trading day.
> Once I get to about 20 points I look to trail aggressively or take profits if price looks shaky.
> 
> Very selective about these trades early on.
> Makes me more excited to get to work though




The FTSE was boring enough for you to swap to the SPI? Wow, SPI is lucky to get 20 points as an entire range sometimes when I've looked at it, what criteria do you look for in the early trades?


----------



## pavilion103

Haven't swapped. I'm on both. Prefer FTSE. I was just stating that FTSE was boring and now I've started on the SPI too. Unrelated. 

I have a handful of setups in my playbook for the open. Similar to what I've posted previously in the transition to futures thread.


----------



## pavilion103

Just noticed that the SPI hasn't opened at 9:50am Sydney time as usual.

Why is this?


----------



## pavilion103

All my other data opening as per normal.


----------



## pavilion103

Now it's open 20 mins later.

Is that a Monday thing? Or any other reason?


----------



## kid hustlr

opened @ 9.50 on my charts


----------



## pavilion103

kid hustlr said:


> opened @ 9.50 on my charts




Thanks mate.


----------



## pavilion103

Tough start to the week. 
Absolutely panic traded last night after the big fall. 
I came back on and tried to "Make up" for missing out. 
Went down 35 points!
Managed to take a good trade for 20 points after that. 
Net 15 loss for the night. 

Down 12 points on the SPI last 2 days combined. 


The magnitude of the losses isn't too bad but feeling negative and like I "have to" trade. 

I think I need to step back the next couple of days and not do anything silly until I clear my mind. 


Despite the great wins, I'm still finding it psychologically difficult at times to cut back my trading. 
It's so simple. A couple of good trades per week = good profit. Yet I try to do too much. 



This is something I need to overcome if I am going to maximise profits. 
Did this well for a few weeks. Now fallen back into old habits.


----------



## kid hustlr

Anyone want to give there 2c where they think this is going?

aussie 10 year daily


----------



## payday

pavilion103 said:


> Despite the great wins, I'm still finding it psychologically difficult at times to cut back my trading.
> It's so simple. A couple of good trades per week = good profit. Yet I try to do too much.
> 
> 
> 
> This is something I need to overcome if I am going to maximise profits.
> Did this well for a few weeks. Now fallen back into old habits.




Don't worry pav. You're not alone there. I am prone to doing this as well. I always try to remind myself that the market will be there tomorrow, and the next etc. No need to rush. Just wait for the setups to come and trade them.


----------



## pavilion103

kid hustlr said:


> Anyone want to give there 2c where they think this is going?
> 
> aussie 10 year daily
> 
> View attachment 58456




Gotta be honest and say I'm not too sure. 

As you know, I like to trade areas where RR is good (strength at support, weakness as resistance). 

This isn't providing weakness where I would say it looks short. 
But it isn't in a position (any form of support) where I would say this is in a good spot for a long. 
If actually trading this I would just be sitting back. 


That little "spring" setup in the background was gold though (yes, I know hindsight is easy). You can see the value of those setups at support. The RR is massive.


----------



## kid hustlr

glad you are as confused as me!

you mean the spring as in the 5th last bar? if so then agreed


----------



## pavilion103

kid hustlr said:


> glad you are as confused as me!
> 
> you mean the spring as in the 5th last bar? if so then agreed




No, I was talking about all the way back at the point this uptrend took off. At the support level. Just brilliant. 
Fits my criteria; a little dip below with the next bar consolidating and closing near the high. Enter above the high the following bar and stop below the low. 

I think one of the biggest errors in trading is analysing a chart to death. 
As we've seen, generally if it isn't obvious then there is nothing to see. 

A bit like the FTSE daily right now I reckon (in terms of nothing obvious sticking out to me).


----------



## pavilion103

Do people think that the rates decision tomorrow is unlikely to be anything surprising? Thus not hvaing a huge impact on the SPI?

What are the latest thoughts?


----------



## VSntchr

pavilion103 said:


> Do people think that the rates decision tomorrow is unlikely to be anything surprising? Thus not hvaing a huge impact on the SPI?
> 
> What are the latest thoughts?




Very likely to be no change, however if they did lift rates - this would create a massive signalling effect/momentum change IMO...


----------



## CanOz

With a slowdown in China taking hold, there can be no way the RBA will raise rates now...

Rate announcements  in the current environment should be a non-event Pav, but pay attention to the data before the rate announcements, the other econo indicators, then you'll be better equipped to anticipate any reaction.


----------



## pavilion103

CanOz said:


> With a slowdown in China taking hold, there can be no way the RBA will raise rates now...
> 
> Rate announcements  in the current environment should be a non-event Pav, but pay attention to the data before the rate announcements, the other econo indicators, then you'll be better equipped to anticipate any reaction.




Thanks mate.


----------



## pavilion103

Interesting XAO chart. 

An unfortunate week for me. 

Identified the support area very well. 

I had a couple of losses early on the week and it spooked me out of a regulation entry on open (7 point risk). In fact, the entry was texbook for the setups I have been analysing. Psychology wasn't right this time 

I'm very interested to see if this now breaks out fo the upside.


----------



## subterfuge

You ever trade Dax, Pav?
I'm getting my ass handed to me most days, lol. Losing 32 ticks so far today.


----------



## subterfuge

L 10028 - STOP at 10018


----------



## MikeRR

pavilion103 said:


> Interesting XAO chart.
> 
> An unfortunate week for me.
> 
> Identified the support area very well.
> 
> I had a couple of losses early on the week and it spooked me out of a regulation entry on open (7 point risk). In fact, the entry was texbook for the setups I have been analysing. Psychology wasn't right this time
> 
> I'm very interested to see if this now breaks out fo the upside.
> 
> View attachment 58556




Pav,

Looks like pretty average volume approaching the upper boundary/ resistance which has rejected prices very regularly. That coupled with the absence of the US markets providing no influence or support may see you get a second chance if it probes back down to the lower boundary. That would complete 5 internal swings in the triangle too.

Cheers

Mike


----------



## MikeRR

subterfuge said:


> You ever trade Dax, Pav?
> I'm getting my ass handed to me most days, lol. Losing 32 ticks so far today.




Hi Sub,

What's your approach? Have you identified the problem to work on?

cheers 

Mike


----------



## pavilion103

Short SPI - 5479. 
Thinking a bit of a longer play here if this looks like the top (and I don't get taken out today!). 


Not much posting in this thread, so I think I'll move all my FTSE posting back into here now too. 

I only moved it because the thread got a bit hijacked lol.


----------



## pavilion103

Stayed in for most of the day. 

Closed out for 10 points profit 15 minutes before close. 

If a half-decent push down occurs it will need to re-test the highs anyway.


----------



## kid hustlr

pavvy I took that 79 short but got taken out @ b/e on the retrace. need to talk to u about how u manage risk in those spots I assume u just use high of the day and im an idiot but remind me to ask u next time we chat


----------



## kid hustlr

p.s classic case of 'we should still be short from y/d'


----------



## pavilion103

Yesterday was costly for me. 

Very very silly. 

Taken out by 1 tick with a stupid trail stop. 

Would have certainly held and it been up about 70 points right now. 


Tonight I did well and closed out at a bit of a support level. 

Because I'm not holding from the yesterday's top I'm not going to hold overnight. 

Tonight standard play. Panned out perfectly.


----------



## pavilion103

subterfuge said:


> You ever trade Dax, Pav?
> I'm getting my ass handed to me most days, lol. Losing 32 ticks so far today.




Just saw this sorry mate. Haven't been on here much. 

Last few months I've been saving the intra day 3 minute chart for DAX to study closely. 

I'll tackle it at some point, maybe closer to the end of the year.


----------



## pavilion103

kid hustlr said:


> pavvy I took that 79 short but got taken out @ b/e on the retrace. need to talk to u about how u manage risk in those spots I assume u just use high of the day and im an idiot but remind me to ask u next time we chat




Mate, so sorry I had to closed Skype before when you messaged. 

I've got my 8 and 9 year old cousins over and they wanted me to play FIFA!

I had set my trade already so just let it run and went and played. 

Tonight seriously took up about 30 minutes of my time. 
This is a brilliant way to trade. 


WHEN THERE IS A CLEAR TREND in place, the entry is the time to go super aggressive IMO. 
79 was my entry too. 
Stop above the high. 
You almost have to just roll the dice and cop the 7 point risk there. 
Price moved 40 points before my exit listed above. 
That means I only have to get it right one in every 7 times approx to break even - 14%!!!!!!

Trades on open are gold WITH THIS CONTEXT.


----------



## subterfuge

Even a broken clock is right sometimes!
Used up all my luck today.


----------



## Newt

Work has wiped me out for much of the last 2 months, but I've been back sim trading the FTSE in NT7 for the last 5 sessions.  Forcing myself to document and take good trades, but to be honest glad its sim.  Small losses or break evens most nights. 

I had hoped to go live with a dozen or so winning sim nights under my belt, so will keep trying.  At least I don't have to be overly optimistic at my sim results!  

Glad to see your still posting and sharing regularly Pav.


----------



## pavilion103

OUCH!!!!!


----------



## pavilion103

Gee, not holding the SPI trade from yesterday was another costly blunder.

I'd be about another 50 points to the good right now.


I'm doing all the difficult stuff well, then I'm messing it up.
Walking away from the screen and turning it off is a good idea once my work is done!


----------



## pavilion103

Two cracks at the SPI open.

First one obviously failed - 10 point loss.
Second one - short at 33 stop to BE.

Took some courage to take a second crack.


----------



## pavilion103

No idea how to trade FTSE from here either.

Having missed the big move I'm not sure it will just smash down in the next day or two. 

I prefer to trade with confidence of the overall direction and then go from there.


----------



## pavilion103

Closed out for 24 points on that last SPI trade.

FTSE time!

A few thoughts. 6660 to find support very short term? Or this to smash through? Who knows


----------



## pavilion103

Short in first 5 minutes @ 6687 stop 6692.
Stop now moved to 6689.5.


----------



## Newt

Home at 1740, and after checking things out when short at 17:52 @ 6673 with 5 pt stop. Working on expectation strong trend/resistance line over last 2-3 days will hold, but expecting downward momentum to slow over next hour - hopefully still enough for me to eek out some points.

Al Brooks says stick to one chart, but I've been dabbling in 50 tick Z 09-14 with my sim trading and believe it gives interesting insights into short term direction worth further learning.  

Agghh.  Support around 6668.5 seems to be holding now!!


----------



## pavilion103

Got out for 10 point profit last night. 
I was a bit in no man's land. 

I was up 40, probably should have walked away with 25-30. 

Direction is unclear. 
It is strongly down last few days but we are at support. 
How price reacts here is critical. 
I'm a bit confused as to where it will go from here so I need more information.


----------



## tech/a

pavilion103 said:


> I'm a bit confused as to where it will go from here so I need more information.





After smashing down to and through support it was due for a short term pause if it was to continue.
As you know Im short the DAX.

I'm expecting it to just keep falling. DAX and FTSE.


----------



## pavilion103

tech/a said:


> After smashing down to and through support it was due for a short term pause if it was to continue.
> As you know Im short the DAX.
> 
> I'm expecting it to just keep falling. DAX and FTSE.





It makes life easier getting on at the top. 
You've got your contract and you don't have to do a thing. 

Now I have to risk capital trying to take on new positions. 

Having said that, as I said to kid last night, if I was still in the FTSE and SPI trades I probably would have lifted last night/this morning. 


I don't doubt that this is likely to smash down. 
Interested how long this pauses for, if it does in fact then resume the down move.


----------



## cynic

tech/a said:


> After smashing down to and through support it was due for a short term pause if it was to continue.
> As you know Im short the DAX.
> 
> I'm expecting it to just keep falling. DAX and FTSE.




It's immensely comforting to know that my goose is pointing in the same direction as the Duck.

At least this time around I won't have the usual experience of incurring losses whilst watching the Duck happily raking it all in!


----------



## kid hustlr

Or its a classic case of misery loves company


----------



## tech/a

pavilion103 said:


> It makes life easier getting on at the top.
> You've got your contract and you don't have to do a thing.
> 
> Now I have to risk capital trying to take on new positions.
> 
> Having said that, as I said to kid last night, if I was still in the FTSE and SPI trades I probably would have lifted last night/this morning.
> 
> 
> I don't doubt that this is likely to smash down.
> Interested how long this pauses for, if it does in fact then resume the down move.




Ill mark up a Possible chart tonight but basically an A/B/C corrective move.




cynic said:


> It's immensely comforting to know that my goose is pointing in the same direction as the Duck.
> 
> At least this time around I won't have the usual experience of incurring losses whilst watching the Duck happily raking it all in!





Ive been a very lazy Duck.

As PAV will attest I have had 3 short positions all getting 150 ticks or so in the money.
and all have drifted back to my B/E stop. Time has been my enemy and I've been out most nights.

But *THIS* time!

Been short since 10024 (Sent PAV an email.).


----------



## cynic

kid hustlr said:


> Or its a classic case of misery loves company




Too true! That's why I always like to encourage market newcomers to trade the demonic DAX!


----------



## pavilion103

cynic said:


> Too true! That's why I always like to encourage market newcomers to trade the demonic DAX!




I'd take a look if it was a very good setup in very good context for say 10 points risk. 

Beyond that, at this stage, I'm not prepared to venture too far.........


----------



## fiftyeight

PAV, how did you sim trade when you were getting started with Futures. I have an IB account but currently no subscriptions


----------



## pavilion103

fiftyeight said:


> PAV, how did you sim trade when you were getting started with Futures. I have an IB account but currently no subscriptions




I simmed stocks for a long time, so I had good understanding of price action and volume by the time I started loking at futures. 

I didn't sim futures as such. I saved charts and setups as I watched the market without trading. 
I simply observed the market for a couple of months I think it was, to see how it behaved differently to stocks. 

Then I started taking a few conservative trades, before trading more frequently.


If I had my account setup sooner I probably would have started simming on IB with their "dummy" account.


----------



## pavilion103

fiftyeight said:


> PAV, how did you sim trade when you were getting started with Futures. I have an IB account but currently no subscriptions




FTSE data is a little costly now (I think $85 US), but if you were serious about it and looking to trade most nights I'd get the data and use their sim account. 

There isn't really another way to learn than to study the charts thoroughly. 

Data is just a cost of doing business if you are serious about this.


If I were you I'd also post some charts and questions in the thread and some of us can help you out


----------



## kid hustlr

58 I think CanOz hinted @ this as well but AMP futures might be cheaper overall too. I had a quick look @ their website y/d and whilst it's hard to put all the 'moving parts' together I think its definitely a lot cheaper per round turn (like half price) and by my calc's you could probly trade for like 50 a month using ninjatrader then 15 a month for their data charge which breaks down slightly cheaper a month + far cheaper for brokerage when you are eventually trading.

Just thinking out loud here and its possible I've got the costs wrong but that was how I read it.


----------



## Newt

Made 20 (sim) pts on the FTSE last night, have already lost 5 unsuccessfully getting on board the blender in last 30mins.  Grrr.  I have to work on rules for when to try and join the traffic depending on when I get home, without getting run over.

Great to see you back and posting Tech


----------



## pavilion103

Smashing down right now. 

I turned it off after about an hour. 

Checked it at the gym. Looked really suss to me as it fell down sharply (to 6660ish) after a very sluggish start. 

I rolled the dice a little. Took 2 contracts with big risk (about 40 points total). 

Stopped exercising and rushed home lol. 


Managed to reduce the risk a fair bit now. 

Price smashing down. 


Wow holding a short from that high would have been amazing. 

Tech laughing


----------



## Newt

Wow, I've been working on options to watch the screen on my iPad over dinner, but didn't bother tonight.  That would have hurt if I'd started trading for real this week and tuned out for the last 60mins


----------



## 5oclock

Had a bit of a dip myself on IG fste cfd,got out as soon as momentum slowed


----------



## pavilion103

I'm regretting my earlier trades in the week moreso than I've enjoyed this move tonight. 

Man, so much money can be made and so easily by just holding in the right spots. 

Every now and then an opportunity will come along and you can clean up. 



This has certainly sparked my interest in the DAX too. 

Particularly trading rarely and in good spots with the potential to hold for a few days. RR is even better than the FTSE (although riskier price action by the looks of it). 


All in all, this is very interesting.


----------



## 5oclock

Might see some more action around 9pm PAV


----------



## tech/a

cynic said:


> It's immensely comforting to know that my goose is pointing in the same direction as the Duck.
> 
> At least this time around I won't have the usual experience of incurring losses whilst watching the Duck happily raking it all in!




Having fun!


----------



## fiftyeight

Cheers PAV, I thought that would be the case. Work is settling down again so I will be allocating more time again.

Kid, I have been looking into AMP. I cant use IB with the current restrictions anyway. Might as well sim on the platform I will eventually be using.

Also, possibly Tradestation Securities so I can have everything together


----------



## cynic

tech/a said:


> Having fun!



It would have been more fun if I'd been home at the time!

I was out and about for 7 hours (approximately 3 hours of which was travelling). I was only able to check in on my accounts every now and then. My longest lasting laptop has a very small screen (one  which often renders it nigh on impossible to maintain all of my open positions). It was a FTSEing nightmare trying to actively monitor and manage my accounts!

Those FTSEing PIIGS! They certainly chose the right night!


----------



## MikeRR

For the down time.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=kHawmZbapjU&desktop_uri=/watch?v=kHawmZbapjU&app=desktop


----------



## kid hustlr

58,

what do you mean you can't use IB with the restrictions? my understanding was trading futures was not influenced. ie, if you have the margin to trade the FTSE, then you can trade it?


----------



## pavilion103

I stayed up for the US open to see how price reacted. 

One off at 6616 another trailed over night and taken out at 6631. 
About 10 points lost in between too trying to take more trades. 


I'm not sure what I'm expecting from here. 

US and Europe behaving differently at the moment. 


I'm hoping for some consolidation and a bit of a push up to get on for the major break down if it happens.


----------



## pavilion103

Having said that I'm still short focused and will not take a long against this tide. 

I will look to see if price pushes up a bit on open and then fails again. 

But not expecting anything huge (although not ruling it out).


----------



## tech/a

Nice and decisive PAV.


----------



## fiftyeight

Kid, 

I am not sure if it is because I joined IB after the restrictions but when I tried to setup my trading permissions this is what I received.

Dear Fifty Eight,

You recently completed a request to add certain trading permissions to your account at Interactive Brokers. 

We are unfortunately unable to process your request for additional trading services/permissions.

Due to ongoing changes in the IB account structure, certain features of our advanced account types are not available for upgrade, including margin accounts, and leverage forex accounts. Existing account features and capabilities are unaffected. 

We apologize for any inconvenience and this situation may have caused. 

Regards


----------



## pavilion103

MichaelD said:


> I still believe this assessment is primarily because you want the market to fall to prove yourself right, as opposed to letting price action answer the question.
> 
> ps IG Clients agree with you, Pav. Selling quite aggressively at the moment & 70% short. Makes me feel more bullish.
> 
> 
> 
> Agreed. Not much happening. +5 for the day. Unlikely to be anything much else until we get direction from elsewhere.




BUMP. 


This assessment as the time was based on price action alone, as I previously stated. 

I couldn't give a stuff what IG clients are doing, whether buying or selling. I look at price action alone to make my assessments.


----------



## kid hustlr

fiftyeight said:


> Kid,
> 
> I am not sure if it is because I joined IB after the restrictions but when I tried to setup my trading permissions this is what I received.
> 
> Dear Fifty Eight,
> 
> You recently completed a request to add certain trading permissions to your account at Interactive Brokers.
> 
> We are unfortunately unable to process your request for additional trading services/permissions.
> 
> Due to ongoing changes in the IB account structure, certain features of our advanced account types are not available for upgrade, including margin accounts, and leverage forex accounts. Existing account features and capabilities are unaffected.
> 
> We apologize for any inconvenience and this situation may have caused.
> 
> Regards




hmm that's really weird?? Perhaps others on the forum can provide more insight? I know there has been an issue with trading on margin with IB (I know a lot of stock traders had to reduce their portfolio for example) but my understanding was this was separate to simply trading futures with the required margin in your account.

Edit:

not sure what the story is 58, see link below you should be allowed to trade futures.

http://ibkb.interactivebrokers.com/article/2101


----------



## fiftyeight

Cheers Kid I will fire off a few emails now


----------



## Newt

Yes, 58, my guess would be you've checked boxes for leverage on stocks and forex.  Futures by its very nature is already leveraged.  I don't recall issues like that when signed up a few months ago.


----------



## pavilion103

No idea guys. Sorry I can't be more helpful.


----------



## pavilion103

My thinking has been more to the long side short term. Looking for a bounce from the base. 

Last night I made a good trade and then threw everything away getting in and out of trades to both sides. 
Terrible.


----------



## pavilion103

Far out!!!
SPI at resistance.

Shorted yesterday around 75 I think. Out BE.




This morning I shorted at 83, stop 93.

It pushes back up to 94 then collapses.

So annoyed.



I considered putting a stop above the previous high of 98.


----------



## pavilion103

Contemplated re-entry but it would have been more than 10 points risk and could have easily not worked out. 

Maybe should have. Not sure.


----------



## Wysiwyg

pavilion103 said:


> This morning I shorted at 83, stop 93.
> 
> It pushes back up to 94 then collapses.
> 
> So annoyed.



The stiff left jab before a fall. Presently out of the markets completely so no pain nor joy here. Spectating not speculating.


----------



## ThingyMajiggy

What's everyone's theories on the opening shenanigans on the DAX like so, big whip saw, it often does this on the first few bars when cash opens. How can you possibly pick a direction out of that, constant whipping from one extreme to the other


----------



## Wysiwyg

ThingyMajiggy said:


> How can you possibly pick a direction out of that, constant whipping from one extreme to the other



Look at a higher timeframe like 1H. It is easier on the eyes.


----------



## Wysiwyg

ThingyMajiggy said:


> What's everyone's theories on the opening shenanigans on the DAX like so, big whip saw, it often does this on the first few bars when cash opens. How can you possibly pick a direction out of that, constant whipping from one extreme to the other



Just looking at the DAX I notice a couple of creek crossings took place recently. Obviously the first one failed to continue upward as much as the second one has. Just spectating.


----------



## beachlife

ThingyMajiggy said:


> What's everyone's theories on the opening shenanigans on the DAX like so, big whip saw, it often does this on the first few bars when cash opens. How can you possibly pick a direction out of that, constant whipping from one extreme to the other




Adjust your price scale.  I like a 10  point grid.


----------



## ThingyMajiggy

beachlife said:


> Adjust your price scale.  I like a 10  point grid.
> 
> View attachment 58673




That's not the point though, they are decent swings(in the range of 30-40 ticks, which is considerable with the $/tick of the Dax), rather than making my chart better to view, I'm more interested in if/how anyone takes advantage of these initial violent swings.


----------



## beachlife

ThingyMajiggy said:


> That's not the point though, they are decent swings(in the range of 30-40 ticks, which is considerable with the $/tick of the Dax), rather than making my chart better to view, I'm more interested in if/how anyone takes advantage of these initial violent swings.




Unless you can pick tops and bottoms you will never get the 30 points from those swings on the open.  But there was just an easy 30 points to be taken out of a 50 point move.


----------



## tech/a

Bread and butter short term trading Sam
It's simply a test of resistance clear as a bell on shorter timeframe 
Charts. I'll post up a DAX chart on tonight's action.
I'm still longterm short so not watching it.


----------



## ThingyMajiggy

beachlife said:


> Unless you can pick tops and bottoms you will never get the 30 points from those swings on the open.  But there was just an easy 30 points to be taken out of a 50 point move.
> 
> View attachment 58675




Yeah was on that, it's not so bad once it gets going, just that initial flurry of activity on the cash open, a lot of prop guys would jump in straight on the open, which amazed me, how can you have any idea which way it's going to go. Surely there's some to be had with those initial swings though. 



tech/a said:


> Bread and butter short term trading Sam
> It's simply a test of resistance clear as a bell on shorter timeframe
> Charts. I'll post up a DAX chart on tonight's action.
> I'm still longterm short so not watching it.




Shorter than a 3 minute chart? Explain, not clear as a bell for me, just looks like all huge equal length bars with just as strong volume as each other, looks like a shakeout after shakeout with no way to tell which way it will fire off in, and it will fire off in one direction, nearly always does.


----------



## tech/a

A couple of charts for you.
9 min DAX


----------



## beachlife

tech/a said:


> A couple of charts for you.
> 9 min DAX




What does any of that have to do with trading the first 15 mins of the day?


----------



## Wysiwyg

I can't believe this bloke has progressed so little in regards to trade knowledge. Wants to punt the open noise.


----------



## kid hustlr

jeepers nice little head fake there on the FTSE. I was short and loving it and it all turned pear shaped very quickly! out @ b/e!


----------



## tech/a

beachlife said:


> What does any of that have to do with trading the first 15 mins of the day?





The test of the high on initial volume failed.
set up the rest of the move so far.

You don't trade much do you B/L?

*

*

Remember just about EVERY support and Resistance level is tested.
How price reacts at the test gives you information for price action going forward.
The high of this latest pullback is being tested RIGHT NOW.

Decreasing volume toward the high is indicating this is likely to fail and more than likely RANGE.

*Update.*
Supply has been proven to have dried up.(At these levels)
Price moving easily through resistance to test the Opening levels.
How it reacts here  Higher high or higher low will set the range for the night.
When volume returns we will see if the effort gains results.
Supply will return at some level before or at the top.
That is what we need to analyse as this is a stronger resistance level.


----------



## Newt

Guys, for anyone trading AMP Futures/NT7/CQG, can you help me get my head around the profit values and what currency they're displayed in?

For example, AMP Futures says for FTSE 100 futures (Z), each Pt is 10 UK pounds (about $18.30 AUD).
The AUD I've deposited at AMP look like they're appearing in my account in US dollars.

When I look at the Account Performance tab in NT7 (Trades tab) the profit and Cum. Profit can be shown in Points, Percent or Currency.  Points is fine, but Currency seems to show $10 for each Pt profit and loss.


Is that right, or is there a setting for me to see profit/cum. profit in US dollars or AUD?
I gather the "$10.00" value I see may actually be "10 UK Pounds"???


Appreciate explanation from anyone I haven't totally confused!  


EDIT:  I gather if I adjust the Instrument Manager I can put in whatever US or AUD value I like, rather than $10?  Would still be curious to hear what any experts here do?


----------



## ThingyMajiggy

Wysiwyg said:


> I can't believe this bloke has progressed so little in regards to trade knowledge. Wants to punt the open noise.




When did I say I wanted to punt the open noise? Just curious if anyone did and how, because I know that some prop guys used to do it, so there could possibly be something there, plus wanted to see what the volume boys had to say about it, if anything, or if it was just that, chop and noise. 

Funny how there's a thread saying don't be scared to post elsewhere in the forum, then you get stupid assumption attacks like this crap when someone does ask a question, no wonder people shy away. Answer the question, contribute or zip it


----------



## tech/a

Important action


----------



## tech/a

Newt said:


> Guys, for anyone trading AMP Futures/NT7/CQG, can you help me get my head around the profit values and what currency they're displayed in?
> 
> For example, AMP Futures says for FTSE 100 futures (Z), each Pt is 10 UK pounds (about $18.30 AUD).
> The AUD I've deposited at AMP look like they're appearing in my account in US dollars.
> 
> When I look at the Account Performance tab in NT7 (Trades tab) the profit and Cum. Profit can be shown in Points, Percent or Currency.  Points is fine, but Currency seems to show $10 for each Pt profit and loss.
> 
> 
> Is that right, or is there a setting for me to see profit/cum. profit in US dollars or AUD?
> I gather the "$10.00" value I see may actually be "10 UK Pounds"???
> 
> 
> Appreciate explanation from anyone I haven't totally confused!




Id say it would be in the base currency of the bourse in which your trading.
If its UK then Pounds 




ThingyMajiggy said:


> When did I say I wanted to punt the open noise? Just curious if anyone did and how, because I know that some prop guys used to do it, so there could possibly be something there, plus wanted to see what the volume boys had to say about it, if anything, or if it was just that, chop and noise.
> 
> Funny how there's a thread saying don't be scared to post elsewhere in the forum, then you get stupid assumption attacks like this crap when someone does ask a question, no wonder people shy away. Answer the question, contribute or zip it




Sam I hear you and I think sometimes I and others get frustrated by the repetitious questions---which Ive seen answered many times.
BUT you've explained yourself and I hope I've helped a little..




Early morning so off to bed.
Enjoy the action.
Fat fingers seem to be winning!


----------



## Wysiwyg

ThingyMajiggy said:


> Funny how there's a thread saying don't be scared to post elsewhere in the forum, then you get stupid assumption attacks like this crap when someone does ask a question, no wonder people shy away. Answer the question, contribute or zip it



I said to look at higher time frames. Trend and patterns are easier to see. BUT and it is a big but, your posts exude ignorance and you shall continue seeking the market open profit making solution. 
There are some people who no matter how much time you give them to answer a question will remain ignorant. You see, it is part of their personality.


----------



## beachlife

ThingyMajiggy said:


> What's everyone's theories on the opening shenanigans on the DAX like so, big whip saw, it often does this on the first few bars when cash opens. How can you possibly pick a direction out of that, constant whipping from one extreme to the other
> 
> View attachment 58671





This was why I thought Sam wanted to trade the open...not me.    I personally dont trade intra day on the dax, I have two running scripts that do that for me.  I was just curious when tech said he was going to show how it was a bread and butter trade.


----------



## Newt

tech/a said:


> Id say it would be in the base currency of the bourse in which your trading.
> If its UK then Pounds




Thanks Tech


----------



## ThingyMajiggy

Wysiwyg said:


> I said to look at higher time frames. Trend and patterns are easier to see. BUT and it is a big but, your posts exude ignorance and you shall continue seeking the market open profit making solution.
> There are some people who no matter how much time you give them to answer a question will remain ignorant. You see, it is part of their personality.




Yes I know trends and patterns are easier to see in higher time frames. I was asking if anyone plays the open noise and if anyone can "see" anything in it, because it seems nuts to me, I was just having a go at it on sim, because I remember some prop guys doing it. I was more curious to see if there was anything in it from the volume perspective. 

It's called discussion, seeing as this is a discussion board. Not implying I'm trying to play the open noise, or that it's my entire strategy and it's not working, hell I'm not even trading at the moment, only playing around on sim, always wondered about people playing the opens, hence why I initiated this discussion  

Answer it or don't answer it, doesn't bother me. Just don't have silly remarks like you did before, which makes people not want to post anything at all. Especially when you are "just another amateur trader".


----------



## ThingyMajiggy

tech/a said:


> Sam I hear you and I think sometimes I and others get frustrated by the repetitious questions---which Ive seen answered many times.
> BUT you've explained yourself and I hope I've helped a little..




My apologies, didn't realise someone had asked about the noise on the Dax open before. 

And yes, thanks tech


----------



## kid hustlr

FWIW I think its worth the time and effort trying to learn how to punt the so called 'noise' in the first 30 mins Sam.


----------



## 5oclock

kid hustlr said:


> FWIW I think its worth the time and effort trying to learn how to punt the so called 'noise' in the first 30 mins Sam.




KID is this wishful thinking or based on some success you have had with the noise? ( Definition of success in this case may just be better than random results from mental paper trades). By the way, in line with Joes recent remarks about posting,i have decided that i should be more active. Anyhow KID, any thoughts??


----------



## kid hustlr

5oclock said:


> KID is this wishful thinking or based on some success you have had with the noise? ( Definition of success in this case may just be better than random results from mental paper trades). By the way, in line with Joes recent remarks about posting,i have decided that i should be more active. Anyhow KID, any thoughts??




For me *personally* in relation to the *FTSE* - wishful thinking.

Have witnessed a handful of traders - across several markets - have better than good success in the open.

I remember a quote from Trembling Hand some time back about how he loves the open and the majority of the money he was making (at that time) was just having the intuition and understanding of how the market was going to open and trade on that day. 

The open often provides the best R:R opportunities of the day.

Apologies if that answer is a bit 'wishy washy' because truth be told I don't completely 'get it' - I've quickly learned in this game though that just because I don't get something doesn't mean it's wrong - I've seen some guys try to justify various things they've done in the market and it's just made no sense @ all but yet they keep coming back day after day making money.


----------



## pavilion103

Love the open.
RR is brilliant.
If you've analyses the background context well it works.
Even getting on a 6R winner you need about a 15% win rate to BE.
Your entry is well out of the way of noise for the rest of the day.
Heck if it's a trending day I can turn it off after 30 mins and not worry about it with stop at BE.


----------



## 5oclock

KID and PAV----thanks for the answers----KID,re TH trading, i think my reaction time (being more than 2pico sec) would rule out any TH HFT !!! --"a mans gotta know his limitations", i know most of mine. As far as getting a BIAS for how the market is likely to trade and only swimming WITH the tide, this is easy sometimes,i am concentrating on developing this more(i think this is the main aim)---only problem being,how you develop the BIAS,and if its based on price action in previous sessions or news stories on main stream media. I think this is what you mean re context PAV. I dont place a lot of weight on main stream media stories, having said that obvious biggies are an exception. Any clues you blokes have re how you develop a bias based on "evidence" and less just on " i recon" would be welcome--thanks.


----------



## ThingyMajiggy

One way I think some guys get an idea if I remember correctly is to see what the world markets have done, so right now the ES is sitting flat in the globex session, Asian markets look to have been fairly flat today too from what I can see, as far as current +/- % change, so I'm thinking the Dax should open fairly flat, so I'm thinking that if it opens say 10, 15, 20 ticks either way of where it closed, there might be a trade back to flat.....potentially.

UPDATE: So there we go, opened 3-4 ticks lower from where it closed, so fairly flat.


----------



## tech/a

If its likely to be flat then watch TV.


----------



## ThingyMajiggy

tech/a said:


> If its likely to be flat then watch TV.




Afternoon TV? I'd rather die!


----------



## pavilion103

5oclock said:


> KID and PAV----thanks for the answers----KID,re TH trading, i think my reaction time (being more than 2pico sec) would rule out any TH HFT !!! --"a mans gotta know his limitations", i know most of mine. As far as getting a BIAS for how the market is likely to trade and only swimming WITH the tide, this is easy sometimes,i am concentrating on developing this more(i think this is the main aim)---only problem being,how you develop the BIAS,and if its based on price action in previous sessions or news stories on main stream media. I think this is what you mean re context PAV. I dont place a lot of weight on main stream media stories, having said that obvious biggies are an exception. Any clues you blokes have re how you develop a bias based on "evidence" and less just on " i recon" would be welcome--thanks.




Hope this helps


----------



## tech/a

ThingyMajiggy said:


> Afternoon TV? I'd rather die!




Foxtel.

Cant handle "Reality" TV.

I cant cook any better.
I cant sing any better.
I cant build any better.

I've run out of Game of Thrones!

Pav it will test the low OR the high of that range.
I think test resistance --- the high---then down


----------



## pavilion103

I don't look at news for these opens. 

I hardly even look at other markets (just a quick glance at how the DOW did last night).


----------



## pavilion103

tech/a said:


> Foxtel.
> 
> Cant handle "Reality" TV.
> 
> I cant cook any better.
> I cant sing any better.
> I cant build any better.
> 
> I've run out of Game of Thrones!




You weren't keen on "I want to marry Harry"?


----------



## tech/a

pavilion103 said:


> You weren't keen on "I want to marry Harry"?




Must have missed it!


----------



## 5oclock

PAV===Thanks for spending that time posting up mate, great job too by the way.


----------



## beachlife

pavilion103 said:


> Hope this helps
> 
> View attachment 58690




So did you go short in that red box area?


----------



## tech/a

beachlife said:


> So did you go short in that red box area?




I could be wrong but I'd say PAV either took a hit it would be a small one.
Or didn't trade the short.

What do you reckon B/L


----------



## beachlife

tech/a said:


> I could be wrong but I'd say PAV either took a hit it would be a small one.
> Or didn't trade the short.
> 
> What do you reckon B/L




I dont know that's why I asked.

If he took the short then curious if he reversed and took some out of the long side, or if he was so convinced of a short that he tried again later.

If he didnt go short, then curious why not. I dont see any point in making an analysis and then not trading it.

Either way some great lessons for those wanting to learn from him.


----------



## tech/a

beachlife said:


> I dont know that's why I asked.
> 
> If he took the short then curious if he reversed and took some out of the long side, or if he was so convinced of a short that he tried again later.
> 
> If he didnt go short, then curious why not. I dont see any point in making an analysis and then not trading it.
> 
> Either way some great lessons for those wanting to learn from him.




Those lessons
What would they be?


----------



## Newt

Al Brooks writes some good stuff in his books about how to use the open as an indicator for the day that follows.  Basic stuff like gap ups or down against yesterday close, strength of price action, trends continuing through from previous days or last few hours before the close, being cautious approaching existing Strength or Resistance (possibility of reversals).  

Captain Hindsight might have said following re today's FTSE open:

- no gap on open, but strong bull bars on 3 to 5 mins charts for first 15mins
- likely follow through off the trend up in the last few hours before close yesterday
- caution required if price approaches highs from last 8 days


----------



## Newt

Err, I can proudly announce my return to live trading today after a few months of trying to sim trade honestly, applying what I've read and watched.  Lost $100 in 3mins.

Got in at 19:34 on the expectation of at gaining just a few points on a move up from supporting trend line - through from last few hours yesterday and opening hours today.  Work stopped me joining earlier.  Price promptly dropped down 7.5 pts before moving up as I expected.  

Lessons paid for with my 5 pt stop:

1.  Broke my personal rule not to trade with <10mins of analysis of previous days, tonight, and any upcoming news
2.  Got too excited at the nice price channel since 2am last night - forgot to draw in the less steep trend line from the open (which was obvious on the 5min chart).

Thank you Captain Hindsight.  Bless you!


----------



## pavilion103

Went short.
94.5, 01.
Took the hit.

Considered a low risk long as a hedge 94,90. Didn't take it.

What's your point B/L?


----------



## pavilion103

Next 1000 trades mate.

If those "wanting to learn from me" trade the setups in my playbook in the right context they will do very well for themselves.


----------



## kid hustlr

Bit stiff on that newt I was watching that closely almost took it, will give my worthless 2c as to why I didn't tomoro. 
Also took a short near where PAv did tonight so no good. Shame to miss a move like this!!


----------



## pavilion103

kid hustlr said:


> Bit stiff on that newt I was watching that closely almost took it, will give my worthless 2c as to why I didn't tomoro. Also took a short near where PAv did tonight so no good. Shame to miss a move like this!!




Tough one kid.
I liked my setup.
Would take it 10/10 times.
I guess the most challenging thing was when it wasn't falling like we expected to then reverse our thinking.   
Shame given yesterday we were looking for longs at the start (and we're both in profit and out at BE).

My 94,90 miss was annoying. I had it entered in. By the time I went to place it it was at 97 and I wasn't prepared to risk that much. Not for that setup.


----------



## pavilion103

Kid, similar last night too in terms of the hedge opportunity.

For 3-4 points I don't think it's a bad idea when in an uncertain spot. 

Trade on open would have been exceptional RR again btw.


----------



## Caveroute

Newt said:


> Err, I can proudly announce my return to live trading today after a few months of trying to sim trade honestly, applying what I've read and watched.  Lost $100 in 3mins.
> 
> Got in at 19:34 on the expectation of at gaining just a few points on a move up from supporting trend line - through from last few hours yesterday and opening hours today.  Work stopped me joining earlier.  Price promptly dropped down 7.5 pts before moving up as I expected.
> 
> Lessons paid for with my 5 pt stop:
> 
> 1.  Broke my personal rule not to trade with <10mins of analysis of previous days, tonight, and any upcoming news
> 2.  Got too excited at the nice price channel since 2am last night - forgot to draw in the less steep trend line from the open (which was obvious on the 5min chart).
> 
> Thank you Captain Hindsight.  Bless you!
> 
> 
> View attachment 58692




fwiw you entered prior to a tl break on the pullback.

Your entry bar was the tl break, the brooks h2 entry was a few bars later.


----------



## Newt

Thanks for the support cave and others.  Fair call re Brooks H2.  Kid, I'd appreciate hearing your thoughts too if you do get time to write something later.  Of course my entry looked a lot stronger when that bar was all green, but promptly reversed into a pin bar dropping back to trend line.  It ain't really a bar until its finished painting.

Interesting the less steep trend line is still holding 3.5hrs later.  Live and learn, next 1000.
Messing with the tick chart is something I've been trying over the last month and often find useful for shorter trades.  Brooks himself said just learn to trade and focus one chart, whatever it is.

Have said before here, but appreciate the honesty on what works (and DOESN'T work as expected) from those here.  Its refreshing and charts Pav and Tech have posted here last few pages are invaluable.


----------



## beachlife

tech/a said:


> Those lessons
> What would they be?




The lessons are
1.  You never know when resistance wont hold, so trading short off resistance against the trend is a low probability trade, and the trend was clearly up. (break of trend line, higher lows, higher tops, Fib ratios, moving av...take your pick...and the daily is bouncing off the 200ma again, plus its holding a trend line)
2.  When  the market tells you your analysis is wrong, put your bias aside and trade what the market is telling you, especially when resistance is broken and then holds.  Pav saw the trade but didnt take it.  There was no technical reason to not go long once that resistance was broken.



Newt said:


> Err, I can proudly announce my return to live trading today after a few months of trying to sim trade honestly, applying what I've read and watched.  Lost $100 in 3mins.
> 
> 1.  Broke my personal rule ....
> 2.  Got too excited......




And thanks to Newt for a great example of why I always say SIM trading is a waste of time.  As soon as he brought in real money, his emotions took over and he broke his rules.  SIM just cant prepare you for that.  Hope you get on top of the mind set quickly.


----------



## kid hustlr

Newt,

Definitely don't beat yourself up over that trade. Firstly its a 5 point loss which is irrelevant in the grand scheme of things. Secondly, and more importantly, *I think you summed up everything very well* and were just a little trigger happy + unlucky.

I think if you look @ a 5 min chart this morning you'll kick yourself tbh. The 5 minute chart shows it much better and an obvious entry - just needed a fraction of patience.

tech has spoken about high volume areas + 'volume resistance/support' before and I think last night was a pretty good example of it in play.

FWIW, personally I'm spewing because I was looking for that trade, was observing those tight bars on the 3m (they were very tight/low volume @ one stage) and was getting trigger happy myself. Then it spiked up a little (your entry bar) and I pretty much turned it off immediately figuring it was probably just going to run from there and I was over it. *The reason I didn't take an entry there was I just couldn't see one in the bars that I felt comfortable with*. There was no obvious stop placement. If I'd hung around another 15 mins I'm 99.9999% sure I take that long on the 5m. It really is a classic tbh.


----------



## pavilion103

Beachlife would love to see your live analysis, like I've been doing in the thread for the past year.


----------



## pavilion103

An open trade @11 x 2 contracts
"Hedged" short @24 stop 28.5 x 2 contracts 

Original 2 longs taken out @16 for total 10 points profit.

Now short the 2 contracts @24.


Hard to gauge market direction this the hedging.

Not as easy as some suggested. In an uptrend but the highs of 30-40 failed for now. Let's see how the night goes!


----------



## beachlife

pavilion103 said:


> Beachlife would love to see your live analysis, like I've been doing in the thread for the past year.




Just for fun my long entry on the german30 taken seconds after the entry.  Enjoy.


----------



## beachlife

stop moved to just below swing bottom.  Worst case small profit locked in.


----------



## beachlife

Now zoom out to hourly chart, expect 50% level to become support so set profit target at 9872.  Risk now 0, potential profit 48 points. Off to watch TV.


----------



## Newt

Sounds a little Frank Dilernia'ish, Beachlife, looking for trend out from 50% levels?


----------



## Newt

kid hustlr said:


> Newt,
> 
> Definitely don't beat yourself up over that trade. Firstly its a 5 point loss which is irrelevant in the grand scheme of things. Secondly, and more importantly, *I think you summed up everything very well* and were just a little trigger happy + unlucky.
> 
> I think if you look @ a 5 min chart this morning you'll kick yourself tbh. The 5 minute chart shows it much better and an obvious entry - just needed a fraction of patience.
> 
> tech has spoken about high volume areas + 'volume resistance/support' before and I think last night was a pretty good example of it in play.
> 
> FWIW, personally I'm spewing because I was looking for that trade, was observing those tight bars on the 3m (they were very tight/low volume @ one stage) and was getting trigger happy myself. Then it spiked up a little (your entry bar) and I pretty much turned it off immediately figuring it was probably just going to run from there and I was over it. *The reason I didn't take an entry there was I just couldn't see one in the bars that I felt comfortable with*. There was no obvious stop placement. If I'd hung around another 15 mins I'm 99.9999% sure I take that long on the 5m. It really is a classic tbh.
> 
> View attachment 58696






Cheers kid, 

Really appreciate your time writing this up.  So helpful to pick through someone else's reasoning for a price region you've been dissecting yourself.  Great way to find techniques that might resonate.  Appreciate particularly the comments on taking time to think through the defensive risk choice - I really should be running the R/R sums in my spreadsheet more frequently if not every time.  

Encouragement greatly appreciated too


----------



## tech/a

beachlife said:


> Now zoom out to hourly chart, expect 50% level to become support so set profit target at 9872.  Risk now 0, potential profit 48 points. Off to watch TV.
> 
> View attachment 58701




Ooops!
Call after the move perfect ( long 60 min after your call )
Call in realtime-----terrible.


----------



## kid hustlr

Duckman you must be loving being short right now.

I finally got on one of these!

exited too early though by the looks of it, huge sweep in the FTSE then! looked like a 500 lot order, wooshga!


----------



## pavilion103

Taken off one on the push down to 85.

Up about 45 with one in open profit of 35 points


----------



## tech/a

Shot this off to PAV see time stamp

Closed it just then see chart







Im out of all positions now.
Was stopped on my long term play for 200 ticks last night now this play exited.
Been good.


----------



## pavilion103

tech/a said:


> Ooops! Call after the move perfect ( long 60 min after your call ) Call in realtime-----terrible.




Lol


----------



## kid hustlr

Do you reckon the long is on now tech or am I just kidding myself

edit: this was mine.





i felt really comfortable being short perhaps could have added on the break harry hindsight i guess.


----------



## ThingyMajiggy

My slaughtering of a P/L curve tonight, literally everything I did was wrong, enter a position, instantly bad, get out and flip, instantly bad.....rinse and repeat. Bloody hopeless, lucky it's sim.


----------



## beachlife

tech/a said:


> Ooops!
> Call after the move perfect ( long 60 min after your call )
> Call in realtime-----terrible.




It was real time within 10 seconds you arrogant tossa.

Just popped my head in and saw it's been stopped for insignificant profit.  Never mind my script took 40 points from the move down.  That must just eat you guys up.






and now for some fun again, long again off the 50% level.





Newt never heard of that guy, its based on Gann.


----------



## beachlife

stop to BE






Pav you really need to get your man crush under control.


----------



## tech/a

beachlife said:


> It was real time within 10 seconds you arrogant tossa.




Well my re visit has been fun
Thread has denigrated to usual
Slagging.

Back to cyber space.
Enjoy your trading everyone.


----------



## beachlife

tech/a said:


> Well my re visit has been fun
> Thread has denigrated to usual
> Slagging.
> 
> Back to cyber space.
> Enjoy your trading everyone.




LOL
Once again slagging started by you.  Let me guess, you checked the time scale, remembered that I am in a different state and you are not man enough to admit you were wrong in accusing me of pretending to post a live trade so you run and hide again.  

I am quite happy to post live trades because I dont care if they lose, and I dont care if small minded gits like you laugh when I take a loss or dont make a huge profit every time, like you did with my oil trade - except that too blew up in your face.  It's part of trading.  You however wait for your trades to complete and then post to brag about how much you made.  Pot-kettle-black.


----------



## beachlife

Tech you might as well stay, I waste far too much time here.

Joe Blow please cancel my login and dont ever let me back.


----------



## pavilion103

beachlife said:


> It was real time within 10 seconds you *arrogant tossa.*
> 
> Just popped my head in and saw it's been stopped for insignificant profit.  Never mind my script took 40 points from the move down.  *That must just eat you guys up.*




Yeh really eats us up inside 
Will struggle to sleep tonight with my 65 point win. 

What would really eat me up inside would be if I was a pathetic troll that no one wants in this thread.


----------



## pavilion103

beachlife said:


> Tech you might as well stay, I waste far too much time here.
> 
> *Joe Blow please cancel my login and dont ever let me back.*




The first intelligent words to be typed by this user.


----------



## pavilion103

65 point win for the night = $1,170.

Happy with the hedge position tonight. 

"Oh we're in an uptrend so don't short at resistance" doesn't work. 
It was crucial to watch that level tonight particularly as price stalled. 
It was a 3 or 4 bar tight range setup on the 2 min that took my in my shorts. 
4.5 risk per contract. 
Gold to get on those with a stop at the high of the day. 

Will post charts if I get time over the weekend when I do my analysis.


----------



## beachlife

pavilion103 said:


> 65 point win for the night = $1,170.
> 
> Happy with the hedge position tonight.
> 
> "Oh we're in an uptrend so don't short at resistance" doesn't work.
> It was crucial to watch that level tonight particularly as price stalled.
> It was a 3 or 4 bar tight range setup on the 2 min that took my in my shorts.
> 4.5 risk per contract.
> Gold to get on those with a stop at the high of the day.
> 
> Will post charts if I get time over the weekend when I do my analysis.




Ok as my final post here's something that I hope will help the newbies.

Pav took a trade against the trend and it worked.  I never said they all fail I said they were low probability.  He thinks he's a super star because he made 65 points.  But he traded 2 contracts so he really made 33 points per contract.  But hey 65 points sounds more impressive.

Here's how I went.

My scripts that follow the trend made 92 points per contract and the long I took off that 50% level is still open with 82 points per contract profit with stops at 70 points.  That makes at least 152 points per contract in one night trading with the trend vs 33 points trading against it.  Any book that you pick up will tell you to trade with the trend.  

I dont know any of you and I shouldnt care, but it disturbs me when I see struggling traders listening to bad advice.  It's a tough journey so good luck to all you newbies, you're gonna need it if you try and follow this bloke.


----------



## kid hustlr

http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2014-07-17/us-intelligence-confirms-malaysian-jet-brought-down-surface-air-missile

Seems like a jet was shot down overnight

EDIT: reading more about it now - freaking terrible


----------



## qldfrog

27 australians on board from "Le monde" website
RIP
no easy culprit: pro russian/russian to implicate ukrainian, or ukkrainian to implicate russians
These poor victims have died as a side effect of a conflict they were in no way involved in.
could be the black swan for the next correction


----------



## pavilion103

beachlife said:


> Ok as my final post here's something that I hope will help the newbies.  Pav took a trade against the trend and it worked.  I never said they all fail I said they were low probability.  He thinks he's a super star because he made 65 points.  But he traded 2 contracts so he really made 33 points per contract.  But hey 65 points sounds more impressive.  Here's how I went.  My scripts that follow the trend made 92 points per contract and the long I took off that 50% level is still open with 82 points per contract profit with stops at 70 points.  That makes at least 152 points per contract in one night trading with the trend vs 33 points trading against it.  Any book that you pick up will tell you to trade with the trend.  I dont know any of you and I shouldnt care, but it disturbs me when I see struggling traders listening to bad advice.  It's a tough journey so good luck to all you newbies, you're gonna need it if you try and follow this bloke.  <img src="https://www.aussiestockforums.com/forums/attachment.php?attachmentid=58715"/>  <img src="https://www.aussiestockforums.com/forums/attachment.php?attachmentid=58716"/>




I thought you left....


----------



## pavilion103

RE my trades last night. 

It really shows what a game of mathematics this is. 

4.5 point risk for around 30 point profit. 

If I only had a 15% winning rate in those spots (and somehow all other trades were taken out at initial stop, not BE), I'd be at BE overall. 

It's all about playing the percentages.


----------



## Newt

I wish people could be around long enough to learn a bit more too.
Beach, I would have appreciated learning just a little about how you came to get your script trading going - did you do it all yourself, is a subset of your discretionary manual trading, what language.

Glad you had a good night Pav.
I looked in many times, but only after midday London time - busy sorting stuff at home - interesting day alright.  Sorry to hear about the jet getting shot down.


----------



## fiftyeight

Any way back to trading

I have permissions sorted. Watch out Futures Markets


----------



## Newt

I'm at home today getting ready for a week away.  Realised that CQG/AMP allows SPI trading at decent round trip commissions, and have had it up since open, watching on and off the price action.

As this is the "Transition to Futures" thread, would be interested to hear from any (Aussies?) who have moved from P/T night trading to working the SPI as well? 

My initial observations from today and over the last week of price action:

- no half points - $25/point (not that different to the FTSE however) but don't see any half point movement
- less volatility and volume but still seems quite price action tradeable to patient and educated trader?
- my DOM is only show up to 5 levels either side of market, whereas Level II in other markets can be lots deeper - not a big deal to me

Was always in the back of my mind that I might tackle the SPI in the distant future.  Pav, I gather from posts you've dabbled.  Anyone else?


----------



## pavilion103

Newt said:


> I'm at home today getting ready for a week away.  Realised that CQG/AMP allows SPI trading at decent round trip commissions, and have had it up since open, watching on and off the price action.
> 
> As this is the "Transition to Futures" thread, would be interested to hear from any (Aussies?) who have moved from P/T night trading to working the SPI as well?
> 
> My initial observations from today and over the last week of price action:
> 
> - no half points - $25/point (not that different to the FTSE however) but don't see any half point movement
> - less volatility and volume but still seems quite price action tradeable to patient and educated trader?
> - my DOM is only show up to 5 levels either side of market, whereas Level II in other markets can be lots deeper - not a big deal to me
> 
> Was always in the back of my mind that I might tackle the SPI in the distant future.  Pav, I gather from posts you've dabbled.  Anyone else?




Pretty much my observations too. 

I'm not a huge fan. Without the volatility and half points, I can't find too many low risk setups like with the FTSE that offer good RR. 

I've had a crack but am putting it aside for now. 

I'd possibly consider position trades at significant S/R levels that I could just leave passively for a period, but intra-day every day, not for me right now. 

The only positive for me is the hours are different to FTSE, DAX etc, so it provides more opportunity.


----------



## Newt

Yes, I wouldn't trust myself to have the skill currently, but the option to trade longer hours at some future point (no pun intended ) and the possibility of learning more about ASX directions means I might sim trade it time to time.

I read in an ASF thread limit stops aren't always accepted on SFE too I believe.
I wonder if they'll ever introduce half-points.


----------



## pavilion103

A couple of charts from this week. I hope they are useful. I don't have time to post any more analysis today. 









I'll try to post up a couple each week. 

My main aim each day is to get on a trade either
1) on open
2) at the day's high/low
and ride a decent move with 2 contracts.


----------



## pavilion103

2 long @ 75 on FTSE


----------



## tech/a

*DAX*

Broken out now of the triangle
Low volume indicated no demand.
Coming down to test the gap.




Had sell stop at 9681

Covered at 53




Looks like Gap tested.

*NOW*

Long 55
Stop 45

That low bar had a heap of volume supporting it
The one's previous lots of supply.
Expecting a test o the low.

Just worked out the triangle target and it was 51
So the pattern played out.
Didnt have time to work it out---took a guess when Covering.


----------



## tech/a

No conviction this move
Sitting at B/E

Took 63


----------



## pavilion103

FTSE 19.5 long
Stop 15

Not overly confident but worth the low risk IMO


----------



## cynic

I went short a little while ago at 6721. 

That FTSEing FTSE! FTSEing with my grail again!

FTSE it, FTSE it FTSE IT!!!


----------



## pavilion103

I figured a move up from this base could be a good spot for a 2-3 day hold if it breaks through the highs if the base.

Annoying my 2 longs at 75 got take out yesterday. Contextually the analysis seems good.


----------



## cynic

tech/a said:


> No conviction this move
> Sitting at B/E
> 
> Took 63




Yikes!!! I'm still net long on the DAX! Looks like the Duck's just plucked my goose again!


----------



## fiftyeight

TH mentioned a good way to gain experience is to record the markets and then replay at a later time. 

Has anyone done this? And where did they get the data?


----------



## havaiana

fiftyeight said:


> TH mentioned a good way to gain experience is to record the markets and then replay at a later time.
> 
> Has anyone done this? And where did they get the data?




You can just record sessions with ninja trader and trade them later with the replay function. Also lets you play the market faster so if you put it at say 4x speed you can get 4 days of trading experience in one normal session time.


----------



## payday

fiftyeight said:


> TH mentioned a good way to gain experience is to record the markets and then replay at a later time.
> 
> Has anyone done this? And where did they get the data?




Yup - I do this all the time - part of my "getting trading fit" routine. I used to do this to try to nail down a strategy that I was comfortable with. I try to make it as realistic as possible recording all my "trades" in the excel spreadsheet that I use for my normal trading. Just about all the decent charting software does this. I started with esignal many years ago, then Ninjatrader and also with Amibroker. You can go back in time as far as your data provider goes. Fantastic way to test out any ideas.


----------



## tech/a

cynic said:


> Yikes!!! I'm still net long on the DAX! Looks like the Duck's just plucked my goose again!




Great night for the Cynic.
Not un happy with my lot.


----------



## pavilion103

Sold last night's 2 this morning. Wish I hadn't!

Now long 6741 with stop at BE. 

Only took one because of the big risk (8 points). Taken 3rd bar after open on 3 min chart.


----------



## pavilion103

Just added a second @55


----------



## cynic

tech/a said:


> Great night for the Cynic.




This time around with my goose on the DAX-yes! 

However, my grail struggled with the FTSE.


----------



## pavilion103

Held too long last night 

Tonight short 6748 in 3rd minute of open.
Only the 1 contract in that spot!

No idea on daily direction!


----------



## pavilion103

Out 6731 and reversed long x 1 contract.
Not confident enough of direction to take 2.

I don't think the plan will be sit and hold blindly tonight. Unless this trends up strongly.


----------



## pavilion103

Huge relative volume in first 30 mins. 
2 big bars on the push down about 2K and 2.5K of volume. 


Will enter a "hedge" trade (short) at these levels.

Edit: triggered


----------



## pavilion103

If I'd held 2 shorts originally I'd probably have one at break even and maybe move to 40 now if this pivot high got taken out.


----------



## pavilion103

Hedge trade taken out. 
Probably could have moved the stop by a couple of points there, but I haven't fully developed this technique. Certainly don't want to lose full points all the time. 

Trade 1 = 16 point win
Trade 2 = 7 point loss
Trade 3 = 18 point win* (open profit)

Total = 27 points up in real time.


----------



## pavilion103

Added at 6752. 

One stopped trade in between. 

Live with 2 contracts. Both stops @ 6745. 


Worst case scenario from those trades = 10 point profit. 

I'm hoping this pushes up.


----------



## pavilion103

Closed out all positions. 

One was a great exit at the push up to around 6770. 

The second exit was a bit in no-man's land. I could have taken both off at 6770 but wanted trade under a pivot low, however this was a shallow low. I had to either have the stop at 6650ish or take profit at 6770. I sat on the fence and got punished. 

Total profit around 45 points with a few other small losses in between. 

Last night I didn't respect profit and it was annoying. 

Prior to prior to tonight, 4 of the past 5 times I was over $400 up, I gave it back. I need to work on profit taking but am getting some real clarity around this now. Two contracts helps. 


Also a lot of clarity over these trades on open: which ones to take, when to take them, when to exit them. It's coming along well.


----------



## daniellindsay

kid hustlr said:


> so apparently
> 
> this guy
> 
> now trades aussie bonds. price action the last few weeks has just been incredibly weird so I actually do believe it




Updated interview from Paul Rotter is here

Hope that helps.


----------



## tech/a

pavilion103 said:


> Closed out all positions.
> 
> One was a great exit at the push up to around 6770.
> 
> The second exit was a bit in no-man's land. I could have taken both off at 6770 but wanted trade under a pivot low, however this was a shallow low. I had to either have the stop at 6650ish or take profit at 6770. I sat on the fence and got punished.
> 
> Total profit around 45 points with a few other small losses in between.
> 
> Last night I didn't respect profit and it was annoying.
> 
> Prior to prior to tonight, 4 of the past 5 times I was over $400 up, I gave it back. I need to work on profit taking but am getting some real clarity around this now. Two contracts helps.
> 
> 
> Also a lot of clarity over these trades on open: which ones to take, when to take them, when to exit them. It's coming along well.
> 
> View attachment 58801




PAV its going to happen.
You have to give some back to pick some up.
You'll remember with regard to the DAX emails I sent you.
I gave back a great deal more than your trades 3 X
But in the end pulled a 200 tick followed by a 90 tick trade.
The point is that capital is protected and trades are
entered into---we get on the right side and make a call as 
to the longevity of the move.

You'll get it right and not so right.
Its doesn't matter that your wrong but it does matter how long you STAY WRONG!


----------



## pavilion103

tech/a said:


> PAV its going to happen.
> You have to give some back to pick some up.
> You'll remember with regard to the DAX emails I sent you.
> I gave back a great deal more than your trades 3 X
> But in the end pulled a 200 tick followed by a 90 tick trade.
> The point is that capital is protected and trades are
> entered into---we get on the right side and make a call as
> to the longevity of the move.
> 
> You'll get it right and not so right.
> Its doesn't matter that your wrong but it does matter how long you STAY WRONG!




Good point. One of the key things I have learnt from you is to eliminate risk ASAP. 
Once at BE then I can let it run a bit. 

I think that my issue here isn't an unwillingness to give back profit, because I know that it is a cost of being business. 
The issue is a lack of clarity about what my objectives are.

Trading 2 contracts the goal is to take one off at 25-30 points. I need to be disciplined with this. If I then miss out on a bigger move, or give back profit on the second contract then bad luck. 

I figure one contract is to make a wage. The other is to try and capture bigger moves (and I will give back much more on this one potentially).


----------



## tech/a

pavilion103 said:


> Good point. One of the key things I have learnt from you is to eliminate risk ASAP.
> Once at BE then I can let it run a bit.
> 
> I think that my issue here isn't an unwillingness to give back profit, because I know that it is a cost of being business.
> The issue is a lack of clarity about what my objectives are.
> 
> Trading 2 contracts the goal is to take one off at 25-30 points. I need to be disciplined with this. If I then miss out on a bigger move, or give back profit on the second contract then bad luck.
> 
> I figure one contract is to make a wage. The other is to try and capture bigger moves (and I will give back much more on this one potentially).




*A topic* I have dwelled upon at length.

I guess ideally we should define the average swing in our chosen instrument over X periods.
Then adapt our trade length to within that.
So while we are picking up trends --- they will differ in timeframes and then also in frequencies.
Being time strapped I go for a longer frame and cop the Regular stops at B/E and the odd stop out.

*But* we all know that trade frequency coupled with accurate ability to be correct in the direction of our trade
with minimising loss will bring superiors returns---If you HAVE THE TIME.

By bringing in frequent B/E stops the end plot of return will show a far greater return on risk than simply letting each trade fall back to an initial stop.

I don't know about you but I've found that with few exceptions if I haven't honoured my B/E stop my initial stop would have been taken out as well!---so Id have copped a loss AS WELL as a brokerage fee!


----------



## pavilion103

tech/a said:


> *A topic* I have dwelled upon at length.
> 
> I guess ideally we should define the average swing in our chosen instrument over X periods.
> Then adapt our trade length to within that.
> So while we are picking up trends --- they will differ in timeframes and then also in frequencies.
> Being time strapped I go for a longer frame and cop the Regular stops at B/E and the odd stop out.
> 
> *But* we all know that trade frequency coupled with accurate ability to be correct in the direction of our trade
> with minimising loss will bring superiors returns---If you HAVE THE TIME.
> 
> By bringing in frequent B/E stops the end plot of return will show a far greater return on risk than simply letting each trade fall back to an initial stop.
> 
> I don't know about you but I've found that with few exceptions if I haven't honoured my B/E stop my initial stop would have been taken out as well!---so Id have copped a loss AS WELL as a brokerage fee!




Exactly. 

The way I trade, if it doesn't take off immediately then my analysis has not been validated. 

Pretty much all my profitable trades take off from the get-go and often fairly strongly.

That is the advantage of getting on in good, high RR, spots; it often moves quickly initially and gives the opportunity to get the stop to BE. 

Most times I will have my stop at BE in 10-15 minutes at the most and I walk away from the screen when I choose to. 


It's interesting when analysing RR also. 
If you take a 5 point risk and have a profit target (or without profit target) expect around 30 points. 
That means you only need to get 1 in 7 right to break even (plus commission). That is 14%. 
If you have even a reasonable setup, you will achieve far higher than 14%, even well above 50% for some. 
Now that 1 in 7 assumes the other 6 trades are all 5 point losses, with the initial stop being taken out. 
This will not happen however, trailing stop to BE asap. 
For every 6 trades taken out at initial stop, you might have 10 that are taken out at BE (I think the ratio will be even greater). 
So all of a sudden it's only 1 in 17 trades (plus commissions) or 6% accuracy needed to BE. 
If trading your good setups in a disciplined way the positive expectancy is HUGE if you follow rules. 

An interesting way to look at it.


----------



## pavilion103

Commission on those 17 trades will be approximately:
17*0.3*2 = 10.2 points. 

Which means rather than 1 in 7 wins needed, 1 in 5 with 12 BE trades. 

Slippage the other consideration. 

Whatever way we look at it, the accuraccy needed is well under 20% if the ratio of wins to losses to BE is approximately something like:
1:5:10


----------



## lindsayf

Thks tech, pav
I find that type of analysis/discussion very useful.
Not currently trading futures but am likely to get back to it in the next 12 months or so.


----------



## tech/a

> If it doesn't take off immediately then my analysis has not been *validated.*
> 
> Pretty much all my profitable trades take off from the get-go and often fairly strongly.





If your a technical trader this should be etched into your PSYCHE.

Validation is the key.
We can come up with all sorts of ways to identify setups but both you and I want validation NOW!
We may even be right but without corresponding validation we need to at least get to B/E ASAP.
I never give a setup wriggle room.
In my mind its not the setup I want.
If anyone here has traded the DAX it makes it super clear that its bolting---Up OR Down---if it doesn't go then generally it---errr doesn't go!


----------



## pavilion103

Tech, an interesting observation that I've found with the FTSE. 

If you have analysed context well, the open is a very good time to trade. Kid and I have been discussing this. 

Most time price either:
1) Sets off in the direction of the trend of the day and the low of the first few bars isn't taken out for the day.

2) Price pushes up to a good resistance level (or down to a good support level) for a 15-25 point move. Once again, the first few bars don't get taken out in this initial move. 


I have personally found that for the risk of 5 or 6 points, the reward is far greater. 

I've begun using the 1min and 2 min chart to accompany the 3 min chart for setups in the first 15 minutes. 


This method particularly appeals to me if the market is trending and I take 2 contracts. 
Some days I can literally get in in the first 5-10 minutes and do nothing except move me stops to BE and maybe set an alert if price reaches a certain level. 

This also ties in with my very strong belief about the ease it creates if you can take a trade at the intra-day high/low in the first hour (whether it be the open or the first resistance/support reversal).


----------



## tech/a

pavilion103 said:


> Tech, an interesting observation that I've found with the FTSE.
> 
> If you have analysed context well, the open is a very good time to trade. Kid and I have been discussing this.
> 
> Most time price either:
> 1) Sets off in the direction of the trend of the day and the low of the first few bars isn't taken out for the day.
> 
> 2) Price pushes up to a good resistance level (or down to a good support level) for a 15-25 point move. Once again, the first few bars don't get taken out in this initial move.
> 
> 
> I have personally found that for the risk of 5 or 6 points, the reward is far greater.
> 
> I've begun using the 1min and 2 min chart to accompany the 3 min chart for setups in the first 15 minutes.
> 
> 
> This method particularly appeals to me if the market is trending and I take 2 contracts.
> Some days I can literally get in in the first 5-10 minutes and do nothing except move me stops to BE and maybe set an alert if price reaches a certain level.
> 
> This also ties in with my very strong belief about the ease it creates if you can take a trade at the intra-day high/low in the first hour (whether it be the open or the first resistance/support reversal).




DAX is similar.
But don't fall for the trap that the two are correlated!

I'm in a better position to trade these once daylight saving is in.
A lot of the time I get home and on line after the action.
Still better to trade the DAX than watch Home and Away!


----------



## subterfuge

They're beating me up again today.
4 trades, 4 losers.

1 Dropped after open. Took an Al brooks H2 short entry. stopped
2 Took a short on the break of the trendline. Sopped.
3 2 failed shorts and looking more bullish now. Long on the break of the prior high. stopped
4 sticking with bullish bias - long at previous support - stopped.

Negative 51 pips so far, gonna be hard to recover from today, lol


----------



## cynic

tech/a said:


> ...
> Still better to trade the DAX than watch Home and Away!



Some DAX traders (particularly those on the opposite side of your trades) will likely disagree.

Although it's been just a little more friendly with my goose of late, that DAX is still one despicably demonic son of a bourse.


----------



## tech/a

subterfuge said:


> They're beating me up again today.
> 4 trades, 4 losers.
> 
> 1 Dropped after open. Took an Al brooks H2 short entry. stopped
> 2 Took a short on the break of the trendline. Sopped.
> 3 2 failed shorts and looking more bullish now. Long on the break of the prior high. stopped
> 4 sticking with bullish bias - long at previous support - stopped.
> 
> Negative 51 pips so far, gonna be hard to recover from today, lol




Why aren't you using support and resistance.
It's been classic tonight.


----------



## Wysiwyg

pavilion103 said:


> Most time price either:
> 1) Sets off in the direction of the trend of the day and the low of the first few bars isn't taken out for the day.






subterfuge said:


> They're beating me up again today.
> 4 trades, 4 losers.
> 
> 1 Dropped after open. Took an Al brooks H2 short entry. stopped
> 2 Took a short on the break of the trendline. Sopped.
> 3 2 failed shorts and looking more bullish now. Long on the break of the prior high. stopped
> 4 sticking with bullish bias - long at previous support - stopped.
> 
> Negative 51 pips so far, gonna be hard to recover from today, lol




See the first observation by Pavillion103 is true for FTSE today.


----------



## kid hustlr

tech/a said:


> Why aren't you using support and resistance.
> It's been classic tonight.




Could you expand? my questions/thoughts on the chart.

apologies for the candles

30m then 5m chart


----------



## pavilion103

Will comment on charts this arvo.

I took 1 contract on the initial up move @ 59 for about 20 points.
Lost 4 points trying to hedge in between that (silly trade).

I took 2 contracts @ 78. Took them off early this morning around 55.
Approx 45 points.


I didn't think last night required a whole lot of thinking apart from waiting for that selling at the top. Tried to pre-empt it a bit but as usual it appeared clearly and provided a good entry.

A good 2 days.


----------



## pavilion103

OK I'll comment now instead. 

Clear S/R - I think Tech was talking about the DAX if I'm not mistaken.

FTSE uthprust. To me this is a very clear short trade. As soon as it appeared followed by a consolidation bar I put in my pending order, it then consolidated further and fell. 

1) Resistance is a ZONE not a specific number (as you know). 
2) On the 30 minute chart this represents a *triple top* with the previous high at 82 I think. 
3) Price slightly breached that to 86 and the thrust down on high volume.
4) Because we are at a triple top and have seen weakness this week my default bias at this level is short.
5) *After the upthrust we see a lack of demand* as price pushes up on narrow bars with low volume. 
6) The risk is only about 8 points at a *VERY clear resistance level on the 30 minute chart.*

My thoughts


----------



## kid hustlr

all good ta bud


----------



## tech/a

Yeh was talking about the DAX.

Would an article on price action both bull and bearish
As price comes into support or resistance then action
After be useful--coupled with volume?


----------



## pavilion103

Sounds good Tech. 

Interesting that the DAX is relatively weaker than the FTSE, whereas at the highs a couple of months back the DAX was pushing up strongly while the FTSE was struggling at resistance. 

The one that interests me is the DOW. It has continued to move up with little disturbance. Here is a chart. I've drawn in the last bar in big. It's taken out a few bars. Interesting to see if there is follow through next bar and into next week. 

My thinking is slightly to the downside on the FTSE now. It has struggled to push up this week and formed a triple top on the 30 min chart. I would have held one of the contracts last night if price has pushed down a little more. The move wasn't forceful enough yet to justify me holding. But I'm hoping to get on one Monday. 

In the back of my mind I'm considering the possibility that this is the failed push up after that initial smash down. I want to position myself in case it is.


----------



## pavilion103

A couple of aggressive open trades with good background context.

Worth the risk IMO.


----------



## pavilion103

Last night's trade.

Worth putting in a profit take order in future IMO. 

No harm putting on say, 50 points away from entry. If it gets taken I'm happy (can't anticipate a bigger move than that overnight, it would be rare). If not, no harm. Leaving it overnight the problem is you can give back profit while you're asleep, so at least the profit take order helps a little.


----------



## pavilion103

SPI worth setting a short position trade?

5510 buy-stop entry 5555 stop


----------



## pavilion103

I'll put up a chart if I get time tonight. Not sure I will. 
My thinking is it looks a little weak and if the US pushes down further following Friday's action, we could see a down move (not sure how far). 

I'm not holding this opinion strongly, but just considering the possibilities.


----------



## pavilion103

And as I say that price shoots up higher :


----------



## pavilion103

Price rounding over a bit here on the SPI at 5530ish. 

I'm not going to be trading the SPI, except maybe consider it for position trades. 

I wonder if 5530, stop 5555 is a good spot for 25 points risk =$500. 

Interesting from here. Given 5535 is a bit of a resistance level and so is 5555 obviously. 


Markets this week will be interesting. Could give some indication of whether we are looking bearish or not in the coming weeks.


----------



## pavilion103

Another 40 points tonight. On a roll. 
Decided to close a couple early tonight.

Hoping tomorrow I get a chance to post some setups.

Anyone else on? Sick of talking about myself


----------



## payday

pavilion103 said:


> Another 40 points tonight. On a roll.
> Decided to close a couple early tonight.
> 
> Hoping tomorrow I get a chance to post some setups.
> 
> Anyone else on? Sick of talking about myself




I'm always on pav. I don't trade the European markets but always follow your posts Pav. Just closed out a HG short I put on last night. Still looking quite weak though so waiting to see if another short reentry occurs. Markets have been coiling a bit the last few nights and with this weeks market moving reports out, I expect some decent sized moves one way or the other. Keep posting


----------



## cynic

pavilion103 said:


> ...
> Anyone else on? Sick of talking about myself




Apologies Pav. I've been a bit preoccupied for the past few days.

Not a lot to say ATM except that the current bullishness might have been surprising if I didn't already know better than to place implicit trust in my logical analyses of published factors.

Happily my FTSE Grail has bounced back but my DAX goose appears to have gone to sleep again.

My recent experiments on the DOW appear to have stabilised but seem unlikely to cross the profit line this quarter and my decision to short the Hang Seng this month is proving to be a disaster! (Luckily my position size was miniscule.)


----------



## subterfuge

pavilion103 said:


> Another 40 points tonight. On a roll.
> Decided to close a couple early tonight.
> 
> 
> Anyone else on? Sick of talking about myself




I think the rest of us are busy losing money!


----------



## CanOz

Some good trading pops on the HHI and the HSI lately, maybe you PAT guys should try it, looks quite tradable.


----------



## 5oclock

pavilion103 said:


> Another 40 points tonight. On a roll.
> Decided to close a couple early tonight.
> 
> Hoping tomorrow I get a chance to post some setups.
> 
> Anyone else on? Sick of talking about myself




Gday PAV----just been rereading this whole thread!!! Well , still not finished, but it has been one of the best threads on this or any forum!Quite a good read when looking at it this way--i mean i have read it in real time as it happened, but its good being able to see the next "episode"straight away.Anyhow,just thought i would pop my head up incase you thought you were just talking to your self--i will endeavour  to and my two bobs worth a bit more often, mean time your time and effort is appreciated--keep up the good work.


----------



## pavilion103

Last night's short after open.


----------



## pavilion103

Took this great trade on open too, however anticipated a bull-trend day so I left it and got taken out at BE after being over 30 up in the first few minutes of trading


----------



## pavilion103

Had left the house by the time this one came last night. Obvious support level and I took my short trades off around the second long entry trigger here at the 6745 level.

I actually took a long on my phone at 6755 with a stop at 6749. It had consolidated for a number of bars and I was willing to bet either way if it broke lower or higher, for a small risk. 
I only took 1 contract. 

I think lifted for no real reason at 6766 to take a small profit. I went out to a dinner and then turned it off.


----------



## pavilion103

So overall while a decent night for 40 points total it could have been much better (but it always can). 
I lost some points in between also here and there. Often from getting out of decent trades! and re-entering 

Had I taken at least 20 of the initial 30 points made in the first 5 minutes I would have been more content. It always had to consolidate, I should have been aware of that and planned a re-entry strategy. 

Also cost myself at least 15-20 by lifting the last long too early, but I didn't want to keep checking it while I was out.


----------



## pavilion103

The night before could have been anything. 

Here it is. 

I was down 30 points not long after the open with stupid trades. 

I then saw this good setup as it pushed up a little at resistance but struggled to move up. 

I took 2 x contracts with 5 points risk each. 

Left stop at initial stop and rode it all night. 

It smashed down hours later. I lifted one for 40 points profit and moved the second stop to 6755. 

I figured it wouldn't push back up and overall things looked a little bearish. 

Can't believe I got taken out and gave back 40 points of open profit. 


Was 30 points down. 
Could have been 50 points up, had I taken BOTH off at 6720. 
Ended up 15 points up. 
That night could have been anything!


----------



## payday

Are you actually awake when you are in the trades or do you go to sleep?
I ask because if you were awake, I am sure that watching the price go all the way back up would have been difficult


----------



## payday

Also, on the topic of futures trading, I was just chatting with my brother who is in Singapore and he dabbles in trading futures. He trades through Saxo Capital Markets and they charge him $9.72 per contract for the ES 
I told him that I'm with Interactive Brokers and I get charged $1.82 per contract! Talk about a massive rip off.


----------



## cynic

My spectrum of trades seems similar to others.

My "stupid" trades are usually "smart" trades that didn't perform as expected, and my "smart" trades are often "stupid" trades that miraculously recovered.


----------



## pavilion103

payday said:


> Are you actually awake when you are in the trades or do you go to sleep? I ask because if you were awake, I am sure that watching the price go all the way back up would have been difficult




Went to sleep. If I was awake I wouldn't have held the whole way back up because I would have been in a position to make judgements. Probably would have still given back 15-20.

But I took 1 off then decided to leave one overnight. In some spots I will.


----------



## pavilion103

2 x long at around 6750.

Price consolidated just above this in a long consolidation. Who knows which way it will go. 

Some news out later so who knows!


----------



## payday

pavilion103 said:


> 2 x long at around 6750.
> 
> Price consolidated just above this in a long consolidation. Who knows which way it will go.
> 
> Some news out later so who knows!




FOMC rates decision out at 4AM AEST. Should be some fireworks there especially in the currencies and gold.


----------



## Evolve

Hey guys first of all thanks this is an incredible thread, pretty cool reading your transition Pav.

A little about me, im 17 and from New Zealand i've been trading shares for a couple of years on the New Zealand Stock Exchange and have decided its time to transition to the Australian exchange to get a decent online broker with decent fees (its appalling in New Zealand), as well as wider options. Hopefully getting into Futures trading. I have around 25K.

I know its not easy money but i have the time and enjoy it so would love to give it a shot.

I have a few questions i was hoping you guys could help me with.

Is 25k NZD enough? It sounds like risk control is the biggest factor. I can take losses.

Do you guys just trade futures? Pav I think i remember you saying you traded stocks as well. Which one do you prefer? I'm interested in futures particularly as it would suit me in the evenings and the easy use of leverage.

Recommended broker? Interactive Brokers seems the best to me unless there is someone else? What would you recommend for playing back data? Whats the costs currently involved for you?

Trading setup, Do you guys use multiple screens?

My action plan is to read a couple futures book such as "Futures Made Simple" by Kel Butcher  then jump straight into trading playback/demo accounts. The biggest factor here seems to be risk control.

I found this quote by Trembling hand particularly great and plan on following it somewhat.



> Spend some time learning basic NT (5 -10 hours)
> 
> Spend some money getting data from IB for SPI, Kospi, STW, Nikkei, ES, YM, CL, GC, DAX, FTSE and a few FX crosses. ($150 per month)
> 
> Set up NT each day to record depth and every tick for playback. (daily connect setup 5 min per day)
> 
> When you have some spare time each week spend it on the sim PLAYING on everyone of the above markets. Doing anything, putting on size, scalping, hanging on for a few hours, being in the market ALL the time etc etc(5 hours per week)
> 
> Then after a few months when you have had a good look at all markets and see how they are when they get wild and when they are boring as bat Sh!+ pick a few where you have some interest.
> 
> Then pick a few patterns that you think repeat in those markets and print them out and put them in a folder in sections, breakouts, wild starts, ranging, fake breaks, low range days, large range trending days etc...... What you want to do now is every day add to the folder whenever you see the same pattern in your markets.
> 
> With those two or three Markets and your growing collection of repeating patterns on the weekend and 1 or 2 day through the week put aside a few 2 hour blocks. Now here is the bit that will save you years and worthless side trips down the discipline road. Turn on NTs playback function. Set it to 10x speed and hit with all you have. Trade it seriously with 2 lots and don't kid yourself. Keep stats (which NT is good at) and really work on them. Win rate, R:R hold time etc. You will do 20 hours of intense trading and training in two hours. After a few months you will literately have years of examples played out in your head.




Cheers for any insight


----------



## CanOz

that quote is gold, right out of the Propex training manual with the Speed wound up...


----------



## minwa

Evolve said:


> A little about me, im 17 and from New Zealand i've been trading shares for a couple of years on the New Zealand Stock Exchange and have decided its time to transition to the Australian exchange to get a decent online broker with decent fees (its appalling in New Zealand), as well as wider options. Hopefully getting into Futures trading. I have around 25K.
> 
> I know its not easy money but i have the time and enjoy it so would love to give it a shot.
> 
> I have a few questions i was hoping you guys could help me with.
> 
> Is 25k NZD enough? It sounds like risk control is the biggest factor. I can take losses.
> 
> Do you guys just trade futures? Pav I think i remember you saying you traded stocks as well. Which one do you prefer? I'm interested in futures particularly as it would suit me in the evenings and the easy use of leverage.
> 
> Recommended broker? Interactive Brokers seems the best to me unless there is someone else? What would you recommend for playing back data? Whats the costs currently involved for you?
> 
> Trading setup, Do you guys use multiple screens?




25k is enough. You can trade 1 and maybe 2 contracts on most futures. I recommend you skip to US markets if going for futures. Only trade the ASX if you planning on day trading stocks (I don't really recommend this..). 

Use IB for brokerage if you pass age requirements..I think you need to be 18. Maybe 21 for margin account. You will probably have to "boast" a bit to get futures trading approved.

Playing back data and trading for MT4 is free. Data is 95% in sync with futures. Find a broker with DEMO MT4 with SP500/FTSE/DAX/SPI and gold/oil if you interested in that. 

What I reckon you don't need starting out: multiple screens & paying for too many markets/ too much for data. 

Other advice from personal experience:

Save a small portion of your money if you have a PT job or when you graduate and get a job. Get compounding on your side while you're young.

Stay up and trade. You seem like you're serious about trading. I stayed up late most nights for last few years of high school, was totally worth it. You will probably get addicted. I quitted World of Warcraft and Call of Duty for trading. 

Trade end of day as well in addition to day trading. Find out if it's for you.

Don't get sucked into indicators, newsletters, courses, signal providers.

You will become very frustrated. Only trade a healthy amount of capital, don't go into debt to fund your account. Don't give up.


----------



## kid hustlr

Good stuff from Minwa


----------



## pavilion103

Evolve said:


> Hey guys first of all thanks this is an incredible thread, pretty cool reading your transition Pav.
> 
> A little about me, im 17 and from New Zealand i've been trading shares for a couple of years on the New Zealand Stock Exchange and have decided its time to transition to the Australian exchange to get a decent online broker with decent fees (its appalling in New Zealand), as well as wider options. Hopefully getting into Futures trading. I have around 25K.
> 
> I know its not easy money but i have the time and enjoy it so would love to give it a shot.
> 
> I have a few questions i was hoping you guys could help me with.
> 
> Is 25k NZD enough? It sounds like risk control is the biggest factor. I can take losses.
> 
> Do you guys just trade futures? Pav I think i remember you saying you traded stocks as well. Which one do you prefer? I'm interested in futures particularly as it would suit me in the evenings and the easy use of leverage.
> 
> Recommended broker? Interactive Brokers seems the best to me unless there is someone else? What would you recommend for playing back data? Whats the costs currently involved for you?
> 
> Trading setup, Do you guys use multiple screens?
> 
> My action plan is to read a couple futures book such as "Futures Made Simple" by Kel Butcher  then jump straight into trading playback/demo accounts. The biggest factor here seems to be risk control.
> 
> I found this quote by Trembling hand particularly great and plan on following it somewhat.
> 
> 
> 
> Cheers for any insight




FTSE futures for me. Looking into DAX too. Don't like SPI during the day, doesn't seem to provide the same opportunities IMO. 

I haven't traded stocks since the start of the year. In trending markets I love the momentum strategy that Tech was looking at with me. End of day trading. I love it. Each night - 30 minute scan, place trades, move stops. Easy. No stress. 
In the current market, it's too choppy for me. When direction is a little clearer I'll certainly look to pile my future profits into stocks again. 

But futures are the quickest way to make money in the quickest time with the lease starting capital. I love it. 

Yes, $25,000 is fine. I don't leave much more in my account. If I've got enough to trade 3 contracts if need be that's enough. Usually 2 contracts. 

I use IB. I like it. 

Multiple screens - Yes. At the start of the FTSE day I have up the 1 min, 2 min, 3 min, 5 min, 30 min and daily charts up. I need  2 screens for that.


----------



## CanOz

100 points available on the DAX tonight...


----------



## payday

That's a great post minwa. There should be a like button for posts like that. Great advice for any beginner.


----------



## pavilion103

Got on the original short on the FTSE.
Got out early.
Lost points going long.

I did just held the initial short!!!!


----------



## cynic

cynic said:


> My spectrum of trades seems similar to others.
> 
> My "stupid" trades are usually "smart" trades that didn't perform as expected, and my "smart" trades are often "stupid" trades that miraculously recovered.




It looks like my FTSE smart trades have recently turned stupid. I'll keep persevering until they become smart again (or the contract expires-whichever happens sooner).


----------



## pavilion103

Closed bloody early and lost money trying to go long at support. What an idiot. Didn't take 2 longs because initial risk was too big. 
Last night is exactly why I need 2!


----------



## pavilion103

pavilion103 said:


> The one that interests me is the DOW. It has continued to move up with little disturbance. Here is a chart. I've drawn in the last bar in big. It's taken out a few bars. Interesting to see if there is follow through next bar and into next week.
> 
> 
> In the back of my mind I'm considering the possibility that this is the failed push up after that initial smash down. I want to position myself in case it is.
> 
> View attachment 58817





Interesting post from late last week. That bar which took out a few bars does in fact appear to be an indication of what was to come. 

Interesting to see how it goes from here.....


----------



## pavilion103

In light of the US market and the fact that we could possibly see a push down from here I've decided to take a position on the SPI. I'm only going to trade it for position trades. Intra-day doesn't suit me. 

I figure it could be a good time to be short, if the market does fall from here. 

I've got 1 x short @ 5521 with stop moved now. 

The only challenging thing with this one is that it isn't up around trhe 5570 area where I would feel a bit safer with the stop. 5520 could easily be re-tested so I'd need it to smash down from here. 

A bit of an opportunitst one with good RR potential should it work. I figured it was worth the chance on open of losing a few hundred to potentially make big gains. Now that stop is moved, there is nothing to worry about.


----------



## pavilion103

Utterly remarkable smash down here!

I took 2 x shorts at 6670 and 6665. 

Unfortunately I took one off for 35 points. 
It's gone down another 20 shortly after!

Still holding 1. 

Also holding 1 x SPI contract @ 5520


----------



## pavilion103

Surely someone else is on here making some money!!!!!!!!!!!!!


----------



## tech/a

pavilion103 said:


> Surely someone else is on here making some money!!!!!!!!!!!!!




Only you PAV


----------



## pavilion103

tech/a said:


> Only you PAV




I find that hard to believe. Trending market like this. 

US session is huge now! 

I see the DAX potential too!

A 10 point setup on open that I took on the FTSE would be up $6,000. I'm mind blown.


----------



## payday

pavilion103 said:


> Surely someone else is on here making some money!!!!!!!!!!!!!




Guilty - but over in the commodities - crude and copper for me have been a LOT of fun


----------



## cynic

pavilion103 said:


> I find that hard to believe. Trending market like this.
> 
> US session is huge now!
> 
> I see the DAX potential too!
> 
> A 10 point setup on open that I took on the FTSE would be up $6,000. I'm mind blown.




Some of us trade different angles. 

Tonight I opted for early termination of my grail and three geese. Every one of my active accounts somehow managed to take a thorough hammering this week! I was copping it from all directions! 

Having endured the unpleasantness of sizable gaps in the past, the mere thought of allowing my exposure to remain open over the weekend was thoroughly shaking my resolve, so termination seemed to be the better option.
(However, some small exposure on two of my geese remains until the relevant exchanges reopen next week).

FTSE it! FTSE it!! FTSE IT!!!

P.S. Well done to those on the other side of my trades this week! 
(Please don't spend it too soon, as I expect that I'll be recovering it from you in the not too distant future.)


----------



## pavilion103

This is what I wrote to kid in an email this morning:

Bit annoyed.
I lifted the first one for 35. I only made about the same on the second one!
 I (maybe) stupidly left the second one all night in the hope that the US would have one more day where it smashed down.
I was up 120 or so at one stage.

SPI I made $1,400 yesterday but I could give it all back. I don't like trading it much so I figured I'm in this for a position trade. If this is the top and my stop holds I make thousands. If not, no loss.

So although up around $3,500 at one stage, I might only end up with low $1,000s.


----------



## kid hustlr

tech did you say at one stage there was a 'mini ftse' type thing or am I just making that up?

Would be perfect for me if I wanted to hold past intra day time frames.


----------



## tech/a

kid hustlr said:


> tech did you say at one stage there was a 'mini ftse' type thing or am I just making that up?
> 
> Would be perfect for me if I wanted to hold past intra day time frames.




I'm pretty sure there is an emini


----------



## barney

kid hustlr said:


> tech did you say at one stage there was a 'mini ftse' type thing or am I just making that up?
> 
> Would be perfect for me if I wanted to hold past intra day time frames.





Hi Kid,   I might be misinterpreting what you are after, but maybe a CFD provider will give you the flexibility your are after as opposed to full Futures contracts which you are currently trading??

$1 per tick gives you a lot of room to scale in/out over wide price ranges ... If that is not what you were getting at, my apologies


----------



## kid hustlr

tech/a said:


> I'm pretty sure there is an emini






barney said:


> Hi Kid,   I might be misinterpreting what you are after, but maybe a CFD provider will give you the flexibility your are after as opposed to full Futures contracts which you are currently trading??
> 
> $1 per tick gives you a lot of room to scale in/out over wide price ranges ... If that is not what you were getting at, my apologies




Yeah this would have to be the go I think. Ta.


----------



## pavilion103

31/07/2014 - Thursday night - exited this one early





01/08/2014 - Friday night - aggressive trade on open. Not the exact one that I took but a "cleaner one"
I took mine at 70 and 65 I think.


----------



## VSntchr

Nice work PAV. It is very clear that these are the types of markets your trading is built for.


----------



## pavilion103

Been a bit busy. Lack of updates. 

I exited the SPI contract (probably stupidly). 

Going away on Friday until Tuesday. Going to see Cats play Fremantle.


----------



## pavilion103

Came into the night 25 dow for the week.

Took 2 x 35 profit tonight.

The lost 10 on a long as support.
Went too early. 
Should have waited for the retest. Could have been a good trade.

Finished 60 up. Turned it off.


----------



## pavilion103

It looks like price may have found some sort of support in some of these markets. 
Downward momentum has been halted for the minute by the looks of it. 
It will be interesting to see if we get further consolidation now and then possibly a bit of a push up. 

I'm more inclinded to look for longs from this new "base" now for the minute.


----------



## pavilion103

Why the heck did I sell my SPI contract with no sign of bullishness??!! 

This is so disappointing. Nailed the entry. 

Market now looks terribly weak.


----------



## tech/a

Long on anticipation that this will become a pivot
8974
Stop at B/E.


----------



## tech/a

Taken out at B/E over night. (By 2 ticks)
Pity this is going to be a good move
and I was right (I suspect) about that pivot!


----------



## Evolve

Cheers Minwa and Pav, really appreciate the responses.
I'm letting some of my shares run a bit more and building up some more cash while trying to make my own strategy/trade plan but will hopefully get started in a few months.


----------



## barney

Trembling Hand said:


> Never try and take a trade as a hedge..................... EVER!





No reason for posting this up other than I logged back in to ASF, clicked on Pav's thread ... and this post of TH's was on the screen .... 

I thought to myself ... firstly,  I miss his "matter of fact" posts .....

Secondly, I recall recently Pav, that you were taking some "hedge" trades ( I have been guilty of doing the same thing), and I would be interested in TH's further opinions on his above point (if he were still around).

My guess is he is so specific in his trading that he is either long or short, and nothing in between ..... if only we could all be that sure of our position!

Anyway, just thought I'd bring it up Pav as it's your thread, and the great TH suggests hedging is a no no ..... and he is someone I would always take notice of 

Have you formulated an opinion on your hedging experience at this stage? ......... 

I have noticed with my trades, that the moment I hedge, the trade tends to go the original direction I had originally anticipated, and it ends up getting me into more trouble .... therefore I see TH's point!


----------



## pavilion103

tech/a said:


> Long on anticipation that this will become a pivot
> 8974
> Stop at B/E.




I missed this post. 

I've been trying to get on the long side this week too. Didn't nail a bit one. 

A couple of premature exits. Last night got on a good one. 


Good spot in regards to the pivot Tech. Great place for a long.


----------



## pavilion103

barney said:


> No reason for posting this up other than I logged back in to ASF, clicked on Pav's thread ... and this post of TH's was on the screen ....
> 
> I thought to myself ... firstly,  I miss his "matter of fact" posts .....
> 
> Secondly, I recall recently Pav, that you were taking some "hedge" trades ( I have been guilty of doing the same thing), and I would be interested in TH's further opinions on his above point (if he were still around).
> 
> My guess is he is so specific in his trading that he is either long or short, and nothing in between ..... if only we could all be that sure of our position!
> 
> Anyway, just thought I'd bring it up Pav as it's your thread, and the great TH suggests hedging is a no no ..... and he is someone I would always take notice of
> 
> Have you formulated an opinion on your hedging experience at this stage? .........
> 
> I have noticed with my trades, that the moment I hedge, the trade tends to go the original direction I had originally anticipated, and it ends up getting me into more trouble .... therefore I see TH's point!




I'm glad you posted this. Very glad. 

I am very much leaning towards this thinking now also. 

I have found that analyzing market direction is my strongest point.
My biggest weakness that creeps in is thinking that I have to nail almost every move. Because of this flawed thinking and lack of perspective, I have incorporated the hedge. 

It distorts the initial (correct) analysis. 
I start seeing things that aren't in the chart because I'm in a "hedge" trade. 
It causes confusion. 
Not only does it cost me precious points, but it also often causes me to reverse my thinking and exit my good trades in the opposite direction!


Another cause of this confusion is watching the screen too closely. 
For me, I trade best when I do my analysis, back my position, take my trade, move stop to BE and then WALK AWAY and set alerts or profit take orders. 

I'm amazed at how often watching the screen too closely costs me. I start second-guessing and that's when I look for a hedge trade that isn't there. 

Last night, I took a trade in the first 10 minutes (I think 3 minutes actually), and I went and had a nap, set my alerts and checked the trade about an hour later to see that it was well in profit. Had I remained at the screen, I likely may have thought the first "stalling" of the move was signalling that price was about to come off and then put on a stupid hedge.


----------



## barney

pavilion103 said:


> I'm glad you posted this. Very glad.
> 
> I am very much leaning towards this thinking now also.
> 
> I have found that analyzing market direction is my strongest point.
> *My biggest weakness *that creeps in *is thinking that I have to nail almost every move*. Because of this flawed thinking and lack of perspective, I have incorporated the hedge.
> 
> *It distorts the initial (correct) analysis.
> I start seeing things that aren't in the chart because I'm in a "hedge" trade.
> It causes confusion.
> Not only does it cost me precious points, but it also often causes me to reverse my thinking and exit my good trades in the opposite direction!*
> 
> *Another cause of this confusion is watching the screen too closely. *For me, I trade best when I do my analysis, back my position, take my trade, move stop to BE and then WALK AWAY and set alerts or profit take orders.
> 
> I'm amazed at how often *watching the screen too closely costs me*. I start second-guessing and that's when I look for a hedge trade that isn't there.
> 
> Last night, I took a trade in the first 10 minutes (I think 3 minutes actually), and I went and had a nap, set my alerts and checked the trade about an hour later to see that it was well in profit. Had I remained at the screen, I likely may have thought the first "stalling" of the move was signalling that price was about to come off and then put on a stupid hedge.





Bolded a few bits and pieces for reference Pav ..... Your points pretty much sum up my own findings


----------



## tech/a

Pretty common to all of us.

Look for patterns 
Outlier volume and range.
Everything else is noise.

Setting a trade 
And shutting down the screen
Is a wise move.


----------



## Newt

I reached the end of Al Brooks' 3rd book (Reversals) recently.

It struck me in his final "bring it all together" section that he goes out of his way to emphasise beginners have to ONLY trade with the broader trend until (if) profitable.  

Anyway, Brooks mentioned the case of a friend how had been trading for many years with mixed success, but when he took out all his countertrend scalps, only then was he profitable.  In other words, the trades you DON'T take and the time your DON'T spend 2nd-guess can definitely be important.  


When you've only been at it <12 months, I like to think any screen time spent with trading real (minimal) funds is educational though.


Its pretty quiet in these halls lately.  I'm missing the chat!


----------



## >Apocalypto<

Newt said:


> I reached the end of Al Brooks' 3rd book (Reversals) recently.
> 
> It struck me in his final "bring it all together" section that he goes out of his way to emphasise beginners have to ONLY trade with the broader trend until (if) profitable.
> 
> Anyway, Brooks mentioned the case of a friend how had been trading for many years with mixed success, but when he took out all his countertrend scalps, only then was he profitable.  In other words, the trades you DON'T take and the time your DON'T spend 2nd-guess can definitely be important.
> 
> 
> When you've only been at it <12 months, I like to think any screen time spent with trading real (minimal) funds is educational though.
> 
> 
> Its pretty quiet in these halls lately.  I'm missing the chat!




Newt,

i review every month... there's one common pattern with me. the less i trade the better my results are... the more trades i have the lower the return to losing overall for the measured period. 

so i agree less more thought out trades better my figures are. Over trading is imo a big killer and opens up the bad things of no patience no discipline creating trades instead of waiting for them ect.


----------



## pavilion103

Agree 110%


----------



## fiftyeight

I have been playing around with the SPI the last few weeks and have a few general questions.

Why are opens more all over the shop generally than the rest of the day?

And once the market closes who is trading? Why are they trading after close? If you can trade why are more people not?


----------



## tech/a

fiftyeight said:


> I have been playing around with the SPI the last few weeks and have a few general questions.
> 
> Why are opens more all over the shop generally than the rest of the day?
> 
> And once the market closes who is trading? Why are they trading after close? If you can trade why are more people not?




There are 4 participants maneuvering
(1) Buyers
(2) Sellers
(3) Covers of shorts
(4) Covers of longs

All reacting to European and American over night trading.

Off market trading does happen and is thinly supported during European and American opening times.
As such you'll find it pretty gappy.
Market movement is generally in line with anticipation of reactions to overnight markets.
The SPI is a pretty small futures market --- while the S&P is open the SPI will be ignored.


----------



## fiftyeight

Thanks for that.

Any particular reason these participants need to trade the open and not say 30 mins or an hour before? If they for example want to sell and they can why wait for a specific time?

Not enough volume before the open until the SPI traders get to work and start trading?


----------



## tech/a

fiftyeight said:


> Thanks for that.
> 
> Any particular reason these participants need to trade the open and not say 30 mins or an hour before? If they for example want to sell and they can why wait for a specific time?
> 
> Not enough volume before the open until the SPI traders get to work and start trading?




Yes the larger participants need volume


----------



## fiftyeight

Long 6811

What do I do now, really should of studied exits haha


----------



## tech/a

Study really fast!


----------



## Jasonm2310

Guys I need your help.. I seem to consistently be able to pull little scalp trades out of the market, with a pretty high win rate of 82.05%( my style being -  85% DOM, 10% chart levels and 5% VSA methodology). My problem is I keep wiping my account back  to breakeven or slightly negative due to not being able to cut my losses quickly. When I look at my stats I know that the best option would to be cut my losses around the same value as my winners but I can't seem to physically be able to pull the trigger when I'm in the trade. Has anyone ever experienced this and are there any suggestions on how to overcome this mental block?


----------



## fiftyeight

Newb myself but I am on the lappy at the moment. 

Is part of your high win rate because you let it move so far against you then taking small wins. How many of those small wins first went way against you?


----------



## tech/a

You have two choices
(1) pull the trigger quicker to negative exits.
(2) pull the trigger slower on your positive exits.

There is a third.
(3) Complete an exhaustive test series varying entries/exits/risk parameters.
In other words add some systematic rules.
When you know you have a positive expectancy to implement.


----------



## Jasonm2310

Thanks Tech I may try to implement a combination of 1 & 2, although easier said then done . Most of the time they are usually little pockets that don't always have major upside and if they do I'm usually out kicking myself for exiting. Fifty Eight - My winners mainly go straight in my favor with the odd split second tick back. Just frustrating when I feel I may have an edge but keep going back to square one.


----------



## barney

Jasonm2310 said:


> - *My winners mainly go straight in my favor *with the odd split second tick back.





That being the case, I reckon most Traders would kill to achieve your Scatter chart  You obviously know your DOM


----------



## tech/a

Your problem is very clear.
Try setting a 5 tick or so max stop
If the majority fly off with the odd 
Back tick you should see a huge
Difference in drawdown from 
Losers. Should cut it in half.
If you see pullbacks often below 5
Before turning around then you will need
To test to find the balance.

Why do you only close after a few ticks
What happens if you keep the trade on
For a few more?


----------



## Jasonm2310

Thankyou Barney. Tech -Appreciate the different perspective. I feel as though what I'm doing is micro so it has to be in and out, also I see the momentum stall/ size thicken so I quickly exit . There have been a few instances where it's taken off massively in my direction but also it has done the same for the opposite.


----------



## tech/a

Jasonm2310 said:


> Thankyou Barney. Tech -Appreciate the different perspective. I feel as though what I'm doing is micro so it has to be in and out, also I see the momentum stall/ size thicken so I quickly exit . There have been a few instances where it's taken off massively in my direction but also it has done the same for the opposite.




Yeh get that

Just saying add say 2 ticks to your average of winners
And cut 5 ticks from your average losses and you have a massive swing
Still micro I'd have thought.

Anyway let us know what happened.


----------



## ThingyMajiggy

Jasonm2310 said:


> Thankyou Barney. Tech -Appreciate the different perspective. I feel as though what I'm doing is micro so it has to be in and out, also I see the momentum stall/ size thicken so I quickly exit . There have been a few instances where it's taken off massively in my direction but also it has done the same for the opposite.




What are you trading?


----------



## Jasonm2310

Tech I'll try to implement your advice providing the depth allows me. Sam - Mainly the currencies and ES. What's your style/preferred instruments?


----------



## Wysiwyg

barney said:


> That being the case, I reckon most Traders would kill to achieve your Scatter chart  You obviously know your DOM



Nuh. See larger losses eats 4 or 5 wins. It's the ratio of wins to loss not necessarily the percentage wins that you want to see. It would be a loser in reality.


----------



## barney

Wysiwyg said:


> Nuh. See larger losses eats 4 or 5 wins. It's the ratio of wins to loss not necessarily the percentage wins that you want to see. It would be a loser in reality.




Yeah I understand that Wys, but "J" said the majority of his trades go into profit almost immediately ..... The large losses are easily rectified if that is the case by running a tight stop .... The bottom line would increase exponentially with minor tweaking ....

I haven't seen too many scatter charts with that percentage of winners to losers .... If those results are repeatable on a regular basis, Jason would have to be a very accomplished DOM reader


----------



## ThingyMajiggy

Jasonm2310 said:


> Sam - Mainly the currencies and ES. What's your style/preferred instruments?




You trade currencies with a DOM? Like 6A, 6E etc? I'm mainly the DAX, only thing that fits my free time slot  Where did you learn to trade from the DOM?


----------



## Jasonm2310

ThingyMajiggy - Yes currencies 6A, 6B, 6E, 6J. Still feel as though I'm not a highly proficient Depth trader as of yet but am quietly confident on a few patterns that seem to repeat themselves consistently. Started with the fundamentals of technical analysis, was lead to VSA (which I believe has a few reasonable principles). My Depth has come from watching the screen, free literature off Propex site, NOBSDaytrading and have recently become aware of a product known as Jigsaw trading in which i'm currently looking into. In saying that I'm only just breaking above even due to my larger losses than wins. Going to try and implement some sound advice that was given here.Thanks guys.


----------



## Trembling Hand

Jasonm2310 said:


> ThingyMajiggy - Yes currencies 6A, 6B, 6E, 6J. Still feel as though I'm not a highly proficient Depth trader as of yet but am quietly confident on a few patterns that seem to repeat themselves consistently. Started with the fundamentals of technical analysis, was lead to VSA (which I believe has a few reasonable principles). My Depth has come from watching the screen, free literature off Propex site, NOBSDaytrading and have recently become aware of a product known as Jigsaw trading in which i'm currently looking into. In saying that I'm only just breaking above even due to my larger losses than wins. Going to try and implement some sound advice that was given here.Thanks guys.




Why are you not using bracket orders to force you to stopout? Clearly from the size of the wrong trades compared to the winners you have no ability to manage trades that don't prove you a 'winner'. Possibly you taking 2 tick winners could actually be the same thing.

Is this sim or real $? Because you seem to be taking a method of trading Bonds that move 10 ticks a session to something that moves 100s of ticks a session. Imagine any gains you can build with two tick winners will be killed  with brokerage and a bad week every few months.


----------



## Jasonm2310

Trembling Hand - It's a live account. You are correct I do have an inability to manage a trade, which is why I would like advice on how to possibly rectify this issue. To be honest I'm not particularly interested if an instrument moves 10 ticks or 100 ticks per session but just looking for that little pocket or pressure on the wall to trade. I do agree with some of the recommendations on here like Techs advice on pulling the trigger slower on positive exits and yours on placing brackets to force the exit, which would most definitely take out that element of mentally pulling the trigger. I suppose it's each to there own and in the end that's just what makes me feel comfortable to trade.


----------



## Trembling Hand

Jasonm2310 said:


> To be honest I'm not particularly interested if an instrument moves 10 ticks or 100 ticks per session but just looking for that little pocket or pressure on the wall to trade.




It is hard to draw much from such small sample size but you may have to look at the approach if you cannot tighten up the size of the losers. 

There is a problem with taking a bond scalping method and applying it to something that moves 10 times as far. Its fine scrubbing around for 2 tick winners on something that moves like cold treacle because the book is so thick you have heaps of time to scratch the ones that go against you - greatly reducing your average loss. But something that moves much faster becomes impossible to tighten up on as it just sweeps through the levels before you have time to scratch your nose let alone your trade. 

But like I said its hard too tell from only a few trades. You may have something that you can make work with a few small fixers. It also may be flawed due to the speed your chosen instruments.


----------



## pavilion103

This week could be important


----------



## fiftyeight

Hmmm missed that on the ftse.

I have been setting buy stops and stop losses, but was too slow on the trigger. Maybe a limit order if it is taking off and set the stop later


----------



## pavilion103

Failed short at 87. Out BE
Back in at 03.


----------



## Jasonm2310

Trembling Hand - Thankyou for your advice. If I were to tighten my stops and convert to Sim on this method for testing than how long would you consider before you believe it is a viable option to trade? I truly believe this to be an edge as it happens on so many instruments and with such an extreme accuracy rate too.. (almost without fail if the timing is right).


----------



## fiftyeight

Few little nibbles for a few points profit. 

Long at 92


----------



## kid hustlr

lololol @ that bar wtf


----------



## fiftyeight

Haha anyone care to explain


----------



## fiftyeight

Out at 10, bed time is approaching


----------



## pavilion103

3rd and final attempt at 11, stop 15


----------



## pavilion103

Just the one contract. Stop to BE.
Off to bed.


----------



## pavilion103

Vital time on the FTSE.
Shortx2 @6799.5

We are at a level which has held a few times.
I'm hoping this can smash through for a big move. But stops to BE.

IF it comes off could be a great place to be in for the rest if the week. We'll see. 

If not break even (again!!!)


----------



## kid hustlr

anyone got data issues?

pav whats the low of the day on the sep contract?


----------



## pavilion103

kid hustlr said:


> anyone got data issues?  pav whats the low of the day on the sep contract?




68 now


----------



## fiftyeight

short 77


----------



## pavilion103

I was in class and missed my chance to sell one for 50 points. Hope this doesn't hurt me.


----------



## fiftyeight

Is this from last night?

Was short earlier and was stopped out to the point at 9:55ish just before the fall. I feel these near misses are what keeps chumps like me coming back, "if id only had my stop one point higher" haha


----------



## pavilion103

fiftyeight said:


> Is this from last night?  Was short earlier and was stopped out to the point at 9:55ish just before the fall. I feel these near misses are what keeps chumps like me coming back, "if id only had my stop one point higher" haha




I got in on the first 3 min bar of the day.

If you got in at 77ish, obvious stop was 80.

I got in 99.5. Stop at BE


----------



## Newt

Sorry to hear 58.  Figured you'd be in clover as it dropped.
I trailed it down too close from 69.5 and only got a point instead of 15 on offer, if its any consolation.  Dropped 5pts in a second straight after stop being hit.

Something Canoz said ages ago about being happy to get 50% of a move sits in my mind.  Going for every point burns you eventually.  Scraped out some points later on some volatility at least.


As an aside, there often seems to be a spurt of volatility around 940am London time on the FTSE?  (bit after the time I'm usually able to join in)


----------



## tech/a

fiftyeight said:


> Is this from last night?
> 
> Was short earlier and was stopped out to the point at 9:55ish just before the fall. I feel these near misses are what keeps chumps like me coming back, "if id only had my stop one point higher" haha




I treat Initial stops differently to B/E stops.

If my initial stop is hit it means my read of momentum in the direction I'm trading is wrong. My expectation is that I'll be good enough to get on long enough in the right direction to take my stop to B/E.

If my B/E stop is hit I wont beat myself up as 90% of the time I've set it so I can leave the screen and do something else. I will however have an expectation of where the momentum is likely to falter and if possible keep an eye on that price level.

As to wether it is better to cash out at that level or remain in place the exact answer I haven't worked on but it seems for everyone that turns back on me another continues on. (Intraday only).
I tend to close trades in less than an hr and in some cases leave while I'm asleep closing when I get up. (Before 6)

Maybe this is helpful 58


----------



## fiftyeight

short 66

Pav how did you find an entry on the first bar of the day?

Newt, yeah I have a lot of screen time before I have a better understanding exits better. I am also running tight stops initially then once in profit loosening it up slightly with the idea of re-entering if think its on. Im doing the typical newb thing and only allocating a small bit of capital (sports betting win ) and hope to grind it out with smaller wins rather than leaving trades open for bigger wins.

I like the idea of distinguishing stops differently. And as above I guess if I have to accept this will happen if I am running tight stops. I was thinking tighter stops will smooth out the equity curve while my futures capital is small.


----------



## Newt

I'm an apprentice stock trader (few years experience) but have done lots of backtesting.  As a huge generalisation, stops will never improve system performance, but might keep you from going broke (reasonably important issue   )

In Futures, heck it seems a lot more discretionary, but what Tech says about BE soon if you've picked momentum correctly, then giving things room to move, rings true.  Gosh its hard sometimes if you stay at the screen to leave things be though and not keep trailing close


----------



## fiftyeight

Yeah not going broke is of huge importance. The longer in the game hopefully more lessons will be learnt.

Does that depend on how you define performance? Stops my reduce profit but they (if used correctly) will smooth the equity curve?


----------



## Newt

WTF.  Did I just see an order for 5000 go through in a sec on the FTSE?
How is that possible?


----------



## Newt

I wonder if we're about to hit a resistance line high for the last few days and come back down at a rate of knots?
Hmmm.  Trade the PA, not what I think.....


----------



## fiftyeight

What 5000 contracts or 1 contract at 5000?


----------



## ThingyMajiggy

Newt said:


> WTF.  Did I just see an order for 5000 go through in a sec on the FTSE?
> How is that possible?




You'll get a lot of funny business and weird size going through for roll-over.


----------



## fiftyeight

Or I think TH has said, if you have an idea trade it. Although I can not remember what that was in reference to haha

Is there anything in particular to watch out for at rollover?


----------



## tech/a

Newt said:


> I'm an apprentice stock trader (few years experience) but have done lots of backtesting.  As a huge generalisation, stops will never improve system performance, but might keep you from going broke (reasonably important issue   )
> 
> In Futures, heck it seems a lot more discretionary, but what Tech says about BE soon if you've picked momentum correctly, then giving things room to move, rings true.  Gosh its hard sometimes if you stay at the screen to leave things be though and not keep trailing close




Don't know about that.
My backtests found 8- 12 % of the stock price is the sweet spot.
Shorter and your stopped out often an can bleed to death.
Longer and you introduce opportunity cost as you often get trapped
Between profit and your stop.

Discretionary trading is a whole new game.


----------



## Newt

Glimpsed 5000 lots on the DOM (not 1 @ 5000) at the time, and volume after 8pm spiked over 10000 a couple of times.  Thanks Sam re turnover.  Didn't think of that.  Haven't actually experienced changeover too often.

BTW, currently short 6811 after giving things a chance to break trend line downwards.
Trying to be patient and not trailing closer than 2.5ATR tonight.

Actually I usually enter on an ATM strategy in NT7 with a 5pt stop loss and 10pt target as the default.
Is it possible to set an auto trailing stop once you have an ATM running, does anyone using NT know?


----------



## ThingyMajiggy

Newt said:


> Actually I usually enter on an ATM strategy in NT7 with a 5pt stop loss and 10pt target as the default.
> Is it possible to set an auto trailing stop once you have an ATM running, does anyone using NT know?




Yeah if you drop down the menu where it has "stop strategy" and select Custom, you can set it all there. I'm referring to a SuperDOM for this btw, select your ATM, then you'll see at the bottom the stop strategy for that ATM.


----------



## Newt

Thanks Sam.  Will check it out.


Umm, my earlier remark about resistance for last few days was wrong sorry - had up the 60min chart for the last 2 weeks at the time when making the comment re reaching sloping down resistance.


----------



## fiftyeight

Short 13

Yeah I think I will make the switch to AMP and NT if I dont blow this money and continue on with it


----------



## fiftyeight

Out at 97, got a bit scared of the resistance at 92 so tightened stop. Will look for a spot to re-enter


----------



## Newt

Out 6801 here.  

Originally pencilled in possible move down to 6775, but wasn't willing to chance it bouncing back off 93 in a big way either.  14pts for the night after a late start is pretty good compared to undisciplined nonsense I've been "unlearning" last couple of months.


----------



## fiftyeight

what should I be looking at tonight, sept or dec


----------



## payday

fiftyeight said:


> what should I be looking at tonight, sept or dec




Dec is the active contract


----------



## CanOz

The Dax is still trading sept, i thought the Z and the DAX rolled on the same day??


----------



## pavilion103

FTSE finishes tomorrow doesn't it?
I was trading Sep up until yesterday. Today I went to Dec.
When Dec volume is close to the Sep volume to switch to Dec ( today)


----------



## Jasonm2310

Hi Guys,

Quick question.. Does anyone use X Trader DOM on here to trade and would you rate it?


----------



## barney

Jasonm2310 said:


> Hi Guys,
> 
> Quick question.. Does anyone use X Trader DOM on here to trade and would you rate it?




Its pretty expensive ... you would need to be doing some serious volume .... out of my league


----------



## Trembling Hand

Jasonm2310 said:


> Hi Guys,
> 
> Quick question.. Does anyone use X Trader DOM on here to trade and would you rate it?




I use it and I think its an expenses ($1200 a month) piece of :flush: certainly fast but for retail there is a heap of cheaper better options.


----------



## barney

Trembling Hand said:


> I use it and I think its an expenses ($1200 a month) piece of :flush: certainly fast but for retail there is a heap of cheaper better options.




TH (welcome back by the way)  .... What do you reckon is the best bang for the buck for an average retail trader? ..... Ninja?


----------



## Jasonm2310

Thanks guys.. If the props are using than it must be decent plus the fast execution sounds ideal for what I'm trying to achieve . Would would the alternative be TH?


----------



## Trembling Hand

Jasonm2310 said:


> If the props are using than it must be decent




Nah mate its only cause its setup for back office risk controls. There is no other option. Where do you live and what broker are you using now?


----------



## pavilion103

OK well this might spark a bit of interest if anyone is following the FTSE. 

First bar range 23 points!

First 10 mins down 40 points!

Interesting to see if this smashes down from the top. 

I took 3 yesterday at 6772. 

I exited 1 @ 6742 for 30 points. 

I agonised over what to do about the other two. 

I figured potential major top so I will leave both. 

So I'm currently holding 2 short. I had no opportunity to get back on the third on open.


----------



## pavilion103

And now its an 80 point fall in just over an hour!!

This is ridiculous.

The US looks toppy too. I wonder if that will take a dive overnight.

Interesting evening ahead.


----------



## Jasonm2310

TH - So your prop.. Residing in the sunshine state mate. Currently with AMP Futures but not really happy with there customer service or round turn rates considering I'm reasonably active within the market. So far the path has led to either X Trader, CQG or Jigsaw.


----------



## pavilion103

Huge fall in markets but no one interested.

Who would have thought that trading threads would generate so little interest on a trading forum compared to Jihad and Abbott.


----------



## 5oclock

pavilion103 said:


> Huge fall in markets but no one interested.
> 
> Who would have thought that trading threads would generate so little interest on a trading forum compared to Jihad and Abbott.




PAV--  FTSE ,it just keeps on falling, just when you think it looks like a bottom , it falls again!!!


----------



## nomore4s

pavilion103 said:


> Huge fall in markets but no one interested.
> 
> Who would have thought that trading threads would generate so little interest on a trading forum compared to Jihad and Abbott.




Might be more interest tomorrow when the Aussie market takes a hit. Not sure how many on this forum trade the overseas markets.


----------



## CanOz

pavilion103 said:


> Huge fall in markets but no one interested.
> 
> Who would have thought that trading threads would generate so little interest on a trading forum compared to Jihad and Abbott.




I'm very interested, just waiting for your charts Pav...no intraday data at the moment!


----------



## pavilion103

OK. I'm excited enough to post a chart lol. 

I actually just lifted my second contract. I planned to hold longer but I feel I need to be balanced. I can always re-enter in the coming days to capture a down move if it eventuates. 
FWIW I still think it's headed down but I thought I'd take one off prior to the US session due to potential unpredictability. 

Also looking at the FTSE daily chart, that is one HUGE bar. Just when you think it can't go lower it will, but it's a brilliant move captured in 24 hours. Happy to pocket the remaining half of the profit and let just the 1 run.


----------



## pavilion103

nomore4s said:


> Might be more interest tomorrow when the Aussie market takes a hit. Not sure how many on this forum trade the overseas markets.




I've been interested in the progress of the Aussie market. I haven't traded the SPI recently, but noticed that a decent down move has been in play, prior to the European markets coming off tonight (and potentially the US). 

The DOW looks toppy. Will be interesting to see how that goes over night. 


Haven't been on the forum too much, but thought there would be a bit of excitement around now with some volatility.


----------



## fiftyeight

Wow 

Feeling not ideal the past few days has not been ideal. If I would of captured any of it who knows, but it would of been good to see it happen live


----------



## Newt

I didn't online until the big move was 2 hours old alas.  Took me a moment to comprehend the scale of the slide down at first


----------



## CanOz

pavilion103 said:


> OK. I'm excited enough to post a chart lol.
> 
> I actually just lifted my second contract. I planned to hold longer but I feel I need to be balanced. I can always re-enter in the coming days to capture a down move if it eventuates.
> FWIW I still think it's headed down but I thought I'd take one off prior to the US session due to potential unpredictability.
> 
> Also looking at the FTSE daily chart, that is one HUGE bar. Just when you think it can't go lower it will, but it's a brilliant move captured in 24 hours. Happy to pocket the remaining half of the profit and let just the 1 run.
> 
> View attachment 59536




Hockey stick, watch for the short covering


----------



## pavilion103

CanOz said:


> Hockey stick, watch for the short covering




Well there we go. 

I'm hoping that Tuesday's bar was wide enough that it won't be taken out. 

Yesterday's action not unexpected. 

I've still got the 1 running, stop is about 60 points away. Feeling less comfortable than when it was 130 points away. 

We will see. If it falls from here it could be good.


----------



## Trembling Hand

Jasonm2310 said:


> TH - So your prop.. Residing in the sunshine state mate. Currently with AMP Futures but not really happy with there customer service or round turn rates considering I'm reasonably active within the market. So far the path has led to either X Trader, CQG or Jigsaw.




Yep - prop. I don't know what the best futs broker is at the mo. Think CanOz would be the one to ask. Lots of active traders hate IB but I never had any problems with them when I was using them.


----------



## pavilion103

This has been my best week so far. 

I think it's something life. 

MON - + 35
TUES - + 140
WED - (-10)
THURS - +50

CURRENTLY OPEN - +170 (stop has above high of yesterday, locked in 70). 


Last night was interesting. I took one at around 86.5, stop 92. Good low risk setup. Because I had one running from earlier in the week I only bothered to take 1 last night. Should have taken another 2, but oh well. 

Exciting times.


----------



## >Apocalypto<

last night was the biggest i been a apart of on the DAX enormous moves. took 20 but was scared out due to the size of my stops on most moves after 10pm Aussie time.


----------



## pavilion103

>Apocalypto< said:


> last night was the biggest i been a apart of on the DAX enormous moves. took 20 but was scared out due to the size of my stops on most moves after 10pm Aussie time.




Good work with the profit. 

The DAX looks so much more difficult than the FTSE. I haven't had a crack yet. 

FTSE I find it quite straightfoward with setups and price action is fairly clean and yet still moves enough to make good profit. 

DAX seems a bit more choppy but if you can get on one BOOM!!

I was looking at it at the start of the week and wanted to have a crack because I figured, like the FTSE, it was going to head down. The risk was just too big for where I'm at right now. 


In spots like this though I find the risk of holding is worth it once on and stop is at BE. 

If you get in near the top and then have a week of price falling strongly it is HUGE. Especially on the DAX. Even 500 points is close to $20,000!!!


----------



## >Apocalypto<

pavilion103 said:


> Good work with the profit.
> 
> The DAX looks so much more difficult than the FTSE. I haven't had a crack yet.
> 
> FTSE I find it quite straightfoward with setups and price action is fairly clean and yet still moves enough to make good profit.
> 
> DAX seems a bit more choppy but if you can get on one BOOM!!
> 
> I was looking at it at the start of the week and wanted to have a crack because I figured, like the FTSE, it was going to head down. The risk was just too big for where I'm at right now.
> 
> 
> In spots like this though I find the risk of holding is worth it once on and stop is at BE.
> 
> If you get in near the top and then have a week of price falling strongly it is HUGE. Especially on the DAX. Even 500 points is close to $20,000!!!




Hi Pav,

I hear what your saying. i have looked at the FTSE, but find the DAX moves harder, a lot of days you can have a one trade session and call it a night. but whatever your comfortable with. 

some days i ask myself why i trade it! the DAX can be a scary market... it can change on a dime, chop up false push then reverse 20 to clean shop. 

it's one for really watching till you see a nice set up with good value entry point. but i love it.... 

atm flat as a tack still coming to grips with last nights sell off.


----------



## pavilion103

>Apocalypto< said:


> Hi Pav,  I hear what your saying. i have looked at the FTSE, but find the DAX moves harder, a lot of days you can have a one trade session and call it a night. but whatever your comfortable with.  some days i ask myself why i trade it! the DAX can be a scary market... it can change on a dime, chop up false push then reverse 20 to clean shop.  it's one for really watching till you see a nice set up with good value entry point. but i love it....  atm flat as a tack still coming to grips with last nights sell off.




Re-focus and don't miss the next one. This could easily push down from here!


----------



## >Apocalypto<

pavilion103 said:


> Re-focus and don't miss the next one. This could easily push down from here!




got ya.... quick buy then might wait till 5.... do u trade the pre LON hour?


----------



## pavilion103

>Apocalypto< said:


> got ya.... quick buy then might wait till 5.... do u trade the pre LON hour?





I trade from the open. 

Usually stick around about 1.5-2 hours (if I get a setup to BE can even be 10 mins some days!).


----------



## fiftyeight

Short 6612


----------



## tech/a

fiftyeight said:


> Short 6612




Hmmm


----------



## fiftyeight

Hmmmmm indeed, stop is about to be hit........ bang

Some newb errors tonight. Missing moves early in the week and feeling I must trade tonight


----------



## Jasonm2310

Check out DOM on 6B!!!!!!!


----------



## fiftyeight

Had a good night last night, but missed lots of points as I needed to go to bed. Probably should of thought about this issue a while ago. 

At least my newb lessons have been cheap..... so far


----------



## pavilion103

Closed last position for 330 points


----------



## pavilion103

Around 500 points for the past 2 weeks now.

A great run


----------



## barney

pavilion103 said:


> Around 500 points for the past 2 weeks now.
> 
> A great run




Nice work ... I'm jealous


----------



## avion

You are killing it Pav, great going! Are you still using VSA with a twist?


----------



## ThingyMajiggy

avion said:


> VSA with a twist?




Is that a drink?


----------



## avion

ThingyMajiggy said:


> Is that a drink?




..he, he.. here is a business idea...

(Pav mentioned using his own refined version of Volume Spread Analysis if i recall...)


----------



## >Apocalypto<

couldn't trade the Dax tonight on IC as bank holiday... 

Due to Pav taking just about all the points on the FTSE i thought i would take a look.. no points left think Pav took 6 off me this afternoon.

fast forward to the Dow tonight some fast strong moves... 33 up off two trades night over. one loss of 4.


----------



## subterfuge

what's your method, Pav?
I'm getting KILLED today trying my luck trading the RUSSELL.
Down over 100 ticks. 11 losers in a row! (seems almost impossible, lol)


----------



## >Apocalypto<

subterfuge said:


> what's your method, Pav?
> I'm getting KILLED today trying my luck trading the RUSSELL.
> Down over 100 ticks. 11 losers in a row! (seems almost impossible, lol)




try to stick to one market you feel well with. if you can trade on demo with different ideas till you see some progress. don't take it personally when you lose just realize it's the market telling you you're doing something wrong.

if under 1 hour try to keep it simple... well i do


----------



## fiftyeight

Great work PAV. The time you have put in here helping ppl rewarded.

So my comment about my newb mistakes not costing money. I think I have spoke too soon haha.

Was long last night on the ftse and in small profit. Raedy for bed so decided to just tighten the stop and leave it open.

Woke this morning and the stop has been cancelled (GTC, ooops) and I cant reset until Monday apparently. Now I am long and naked all weekend.


----------



## VSntchr

fiftyeight said:


> Woke this morning and the stop has been cancelled (GTC, ooops) and I cant reset until Monday apparently. Now I am long and naked all weekend.



Not ideal, yet the way the US performed after Europe closed should allow you to sleep over the weekend...so at least you won't be naked and shaking in fear..which may have occured if it fell off the cliff


----------



## cynic

fiftyeight said:


> Great work PAV. The time you have put in here helping ppl rewarded.
> 
> So my comment about my newb mistakes not costing money. I think I have spoke too soon haha.
> 
> Was long last night on the ftse and in small profit. Raedy for bed so decided to just tighten the stop and leave it open.
> 
> Woke this morning and the stop has been cancelled (GTC, ooops) and I cant reset until Monday apparently. Now I am long and naked all weekend.




I'm puzzled as to how a stop would benefit anyone over the weekend. If the market gaps on monday, there's precious little that the stop could've done!


----------



## CanOz

cynic said:


> I'm puzzled as to how a stop would benefit anyone over the weekend. If the market gaps on monday, there's precious little that the stop could've done!




+1 - i see no reward worth taking on weekend risk.


----------



## fiftyeight

CanOz said:


> +1 - i see no reward worth taking on weekend risk.




Yes, unfortunately I agree. It has exposed a massive hole in my knowledge.


----------



## CanOz

fiftyeight said:


> Yes, unfortunately I agree. It has exposed a massive hole in my knowledge.



Don't worry, I've been there too...once. Never again.


----------



## pavilion103

avion said:


> You are killing it Pav, great going! Are you still using VSA with a twist?




Yeh still trading the same way. It makes sense to me.


----------



## pavilion103

barney said:


> Nice work ... I'm jealous




Hahaha I just saw this


----------



## pavilion103

subterfuge said:


> what's your method, Pav? I'm getting KILLED today trying my luck trading the RUSSELL. Down over 100 ticks. 11 losers in a row! (seems almost impossible, lol)




I'm away this weekend. I'll post something when I get back. Glad to sit back for a few days and relax


----------



## barney

pavilion103 said:


> Hahaha I just saw this




Always good to see someone winning Pav  ... nice job



pavilion103 said:


> I'm away this weekend. I'll post something when I get back. Glad to sit back for a few days and relax




Although ... I am still jealous


----------



## CanOz

barney said:


> Always good to see someone winning Pav  ... nice job
> 
> 
> 
> Although ... I am still jealous




Bit bloody hot for Pants init Pav?


----------



## barney

CanOz said:


> Bit bloody hot for Pants init Pav?




Lol  ......  I think Pav is conservative Can  ...... If the girls find out how much cash he is making ... AND he takes his trousers off  ....  it might not end well

ps  ... Sorry Pav; its the weekend and I like to be a bit silly!


----------



## pavilion103

Huge gap up on DAX


----------



## cynic

pavilion103 said:


> Huge gap up on DAX




Low three figures, huge for those heavily leveraged in the short direction perhaps, but as far as the DAX goes - nahhh!!! I've seen bigger!


----------



## pavilion103

This is my position trade. 
Happy to finally nail one like this. 
The intention next time at a really good spot is to take two contracts for the big move (and then additional for intra day trading).


----------



## pavilion103

The exit coincided with:

1) Some huge volume coming in
2) At a support line which I drew in from the start of the year. 

The down move looked exhausted (for now at least). 


I almost took a long at 6460ish on Friday but I was actually away and didn't want to put a stop 20 points away. My thoughts were that this looked like an obvious place to spring up from. Wish I had now 

I'm looking for longs now. Hoping I can get on a position trade to the long side but mainly trade intra-day. 

Might need some consolidation first. We will see.


----------



## pavilion103

Also a little frustration last week despite the profit.

1) Wednesday (I think) got in at 6620 and stopped by 2 points. 
2) Thursday got in 6520 and stopped by 2 points. 

Based on my exit on the position trade that was

1) 180 points
2) 80 points

260 points almost made


----------



## pavilion103

Long @ 6519. 

Considered adding a second @ 6517 after it took out the 6515 mini low. 

But 9 point risk on the initial position is large for me. I didn't want to roll the dice on a second. 

Not even 100% confident on the first one, but in a decent spot and worth the risk for the upside potential IMO. 

We will see.


----------



## CanOz

Nice trade Pav, good to see you finally nail a big move.


----------



## pavilion103

CanOz said:


> Nice trade Pav, good to see you finally nail a big move.




The frustrating thing for me is that I've nailed the entry 2 or 3 times in that spot but always failed to hold. 

Hopefully this gives me confidence in the future to do the same as I did this time when necessary. 

Holding one through those big moves certainly eliminates the noise and it's a good feeling to always have one moving in your direction without you having to do anything.


----------



## CanOz

pavilion103 said:


> The frustrating thing for me is that I've nailed the entry 2 or 3 times in that spot but always failed to hold.
> 
> Hopefully this gives me confidence in the future to do the same as I did this time when necessary.
> 
> Holding one through those big moves certainly eliminates the noise and it's a good feeling to always have one moving in your direction without you having to do anything.




Yeah, I'm not as stuck on trends as I used to be but it is mighty satisfying when you get that much of a move in the bank. Sort of like striking the sweet spot on a three iron.


----------



## Wysiwyg

pavilion103 said:


> *Long @ 6519.*
> 
> Considered adding a second @ 6517 *after it took out the 6515 mini low.*
> 
> But *9 point risk on the initial position* is large for me. I didn't want to roll the dice on a second.



My December data has that low as 6511?


----------



## pavilion103

Wysiwyg said:


> My December data has that low as 6511?




6515, I didn't mean the low of the day. Simply looking at the one minute chart after the entry as price pushed down. 

Yes. 6511 is the low. I had my initial stop 2 ticks below this.


----------



## Wysiwyg

pavilion103 said:


> Yes. 6511 is the low. I had my initial stop 2 ticks below this.



Roger that. They missed you with the left jab that time.


----------



## fiftyeight

Long 6515

I got very lucky over the weekend and was let off lightly. I probably wont be so lucky with another stupid mistake


----------



## subterfuge

DAX so far for me today. Down about 50 ticks.
 Short again here. HOpefully this one works out to get some money back


----------



## subterfuge

damn. They stopped me again. About max loss for the day down about 80 ticks. Hopefully get some luck tomorrow


----------



## >Apocalypto<

subterfuge said:


> DAX so far for me today. Down about 50 ticks.
> Short again here. HOpefully this one works out to get some money back




have you been trading the DAX long? for a while it would reward me then ruin me. started to think it was way to hard... now i wait for moves to prove. dont try to get in on lows or highs. few times i was really cut to hell.

main issue for me atm is my holding get panicked out to fast on normal DAX movements while in the trade. 

she's a beast at times.


----------



## fiftyeight

Out at 6543


----------



## pavilion103

Good one.
I wasn't on for the obvious setup at 6511.5, 6503.5 which I would have taken.

I was down 5 points last night.

I won't be too aggressive here. 

Waiting for it to settle and give me some clear support and resistance to trade off.


----------



## CanOz

How many Dax traders here get the daily Eurex newsletter I posted on here a couple times? It said yesterday was a slow news day and it was a Monday after NFP. Bearing in mind where the market opened, you had to be thinking inside rotational day rather another's trend day, at least until the US opened. Given all this, would it be better to trade with less risk on Monday's with no news and save the ammo for another day?

All great in hindsight I know, but Monday's are known to be quiet and that's been mentioned allot on ASF.


----------



## Trembling Hand

CanOz said:


> How many Dax traders here get the daily Eurex newsletter I posted on here a couple times? It said yesterday was a slow news day and it was a Monday after NFP. Bearing in mind where the market opened, you had to be thinking inside rotational day rather another's trend day, at least until the US opened. Given all this, would it be better to trade with less risk on Monday's with no news and save the ammo for another day?
> 
> All great in hindsight I know, but Monday's are known to be quiet and that's been mentioned allot on ASF.




 Starting with the right plans is a very underestimated edge.


----------



## fiftyeight

Wow, short on the SPI at 72 with a stop now at 32. By far my best attempt


----------



## fiftyeight

Work got busy and I messed up my exit. Out at 13


----------



## pavilion103

fiftyeight said:


> Wow, short on the SPI at 72 with a stop now at 32. By far my best attempt




Far out! What the heck is going on with the Aussie market recently. 

Good work 58. That is an impressive effort. 

Cannot believe how much this has moved recently. I'm spewing. I considered taking a position trade at 5,597 on the 10th September. I remember the exact number! GRR. 

This, along with the FTSE trade I profited on, really makes me see how beneficial it is to pull the trigger in those spots. The RR is MASSIVE. 

I was also looking at the DAX on 22nd September at around 9800 at what looks like a little false break at previous resistance. I couldn't justify 100 points risk ($3,700?). 

Part of my strategy going forward is to pull the triggers in those spots. If I'm making a lot of points in between, I can afford to risk a little more to get on at the top/bottom of a good move. This HAS to be the strategy. 


FTSE position trade made about $6,000 I think. 
SPI one would be up around $10,000. 
DAX one would be up over $20,000.


This is so exciting.  

I need to be looking at these types of trades across these markets. 

Would have been more than happy to have lifted all of them now. Even if further downside movements are ahead. 


The best thing is that these aren't all hindsight moves. They are there to be seen in real time, with proper contextual analysis. It is simply a matter of incorporating it into the strategy and being willing to take the risk in those particular places. Sometimes with good, low risk setups (e.g. my FTSE one was 5 points risk and it took off from an intraday trade and I left it) but sometimes needing to take a little more risk with profits made at other times.


----------



## CanOz

fiftyeight said:


> Work got busy and I messed up my exit. Out at 13




So was that a 1:1 risk to reward?


----------



## fiftyeight

Yeah just about. Give or take 50 points


----------



## pavilion103

Have I missed the joke?


----------



## fiftyeight

Haha maybe I am missing something as usual. My initail risk was 5 points. No way would I risk 60 points.

I have a plan this arvo if im free and there is another smaller push down. Lets see what happens


----------



## pavilion103

fiftyeight said:


> Haha maybe I am missing something as usual. My initail risk was 5 points. No way would I risk 60 points.  I have a plan this arvo if im free and there is another smaller push down. Lets see what happens




That's what I thought. 
I didn't know what he meant by 1:1 RR


----------



## CanOz

pavilion103 said:


> That's what I thought.
> I didn't know what he meant by 1:1 RR




Ahh sorry, my bad. I don't have a chart so I thought your initial stop was 60 odd points away from your entry...


----------



## pavilion103

Short 1 contract @ 6526 in the first 30 seconds of trading with an initial 6 point risk. Felt I needed to get in very aggressively. It was too risky to take 2 for me. Wish I had as price smashes down!


----------



## pavilion103

Added a second @ 6506, stop 6511.5

An aggressive addition but I think worth it in this spot. We'll see.


----------



## kid hustlr

Really strange open? TH do you see that very often, 4 very similar volume bars on the open quite rare??


----------



## fiftyeight

Nice work. Misssed the open unfortunately but not sure I would of got on anyway. Now short at 96.5

With your postion trade how did you handle the bigger moves against you?


----------



## pavilion103

1st closed for 30 points.

2nd running with stop at BE.


----------



## CanOz

quietly watching the DAX trap some shorts...


----------



## pavilion103

fiftyeight said:


> Nice work. Misssed the open unfortunately but not sure I would of got on anyway. Now short at 96.5  With your postion trade how did you handle the bigger moves against you?




Not sure what you mean?
I closed out of my big position trade the other day.
I've always got fairly specific things in mind that I look for in terms of exit. If not I told. Not too much thinking involved.


----------



## ThingyMajiggy

CanOz said:


> quietly watching the DAX trap some shorts...




It's killing me, these swings are doing my head in, although I do have no idea what to expect, half expecting it to run but keep getting screwed when I try and jump on. Always the wrong way


----------



## pavilion103

kid hustlr said:


> Really strange open? TH do you see that very often, 4 very similar volume bars on the open quite rare??  <img src="https://www.aussiestockforums.com/forums/attachment.php?attachmentid=59723"/>




I noticed this too. Not sure I've seen it before!


----------



## fiftyeight

Yeah that was not very clear sorry. The chart you posted yesterday, it had a move against you of 75 points I think.


----------



## CanOz

Well there was your chance Sam, now you can get it on the break or the retest...


----------



## ThingyMajiggy

CanOz said:


> Well there was your chance Sam, now you can get it on the break or the retest...




Ahh I just don't know how to trade days like these, just always seem to be wrong and chasing my tail. Looks like its going one way, enter, get slammed, stopped out, waaaaaaaaah


----------



## fiftyeight

Stopped at BE


----------



## cynic

ThingyMajiggy said:


> Ahh I just don't know how to trade days like these, just always seem to be wrong and chasing my tail. Looks like its going one way, enter, get slammed, stopped out, waaaaaaaaah




You're too modest!

My careful reading of your post indicates to me that you've made the requisite observations!!


----------



## CanOz

> Ahh I just don't know how to trade days like these, just always seem to be wrong and chasing my tail. Looks like its going one way, enter, get slammed, stopped out, waaaaaaaaah




Yeah, that's where i found that just trading 1 contract around this crap was good. I could use the VWAP as a reference, if things took off like a trend day then i could add and build a position to take advantage of that. Otherwise i had one contract plugging away here and there and the worst i got was 10-30 ticks down and some brokerage. On a decent sized account it was much less than my daily stop.

The biggest thing that helped me on days like this though was just trying to get things on sale...never paying more than i had too. That's where the depth really comes in handy IMO.

CanOz


----------



## pavilion103

fiftyeight said:


> Yeah that was not very clear sorry. The chart you posted yesterday, it had a move against you of 75 points I think.




Ah you mean during the move?

Yeh, like with any trade, I have a clear exit strategy in mind. This one was to hold until a support level and see huge volume come in at this level. This is exactly what happened when I eventually exited. 

The plan was to ride the bumps in between. If you aren't willing to do that you won't ever make 300 points in one trade.


----------



## pavilion103

Just got home. Hadn't checked it for about an hour and a half. 

Darn it.... was about to take another entry at 6496.5, stop 6501.5. 
Price has just moved down to 6492, so too wide. Only want a trade of 5 points risk or less in that spot. 
Well worth it IMO with such a defined daily resistance in a downtrend. 
Ah well. 

Trade 1 = 30 points. 
Trade 2 = 15 points* currently running with stop at BE.


----------



## pavilion103

My activity tonight.


----------



## CanOz

There's not as much short covering around as one might have expected, given the decline we've had. We might need to range some more at these lvels before we see a big rush to the exits by the shorts...


----------



## pavilion103

In 6496.5, stop 6501.5 as originally intended. 

Not 100% confident, but a set move for me in this spot.


----------



## fiftyeight

Long at 00 stop at 95


----------



## pavilion103

No good. Finished up 27


----------



## CanOz

fiftyeight said:


> Long at 00 stop at 95




nice


----------



## pavilion103

fiftyeight said:


> Long at 00 stop at 95




Good work if this keeps going.


----------



## CanOz

hmmm,there they are...shorts hitting the exits

classic hockey stick


----------



## fiftyeight

Hmm I have seen you talk about the hockey stick before.

So could you infer after the shorts have covered there maybe weakness again?


----------



## >Apocalypto<

ThingyMajiggy said:


> Ahh I just don't know how to trade days like these, just always seem to be wrong and chasing my tail. Looks like its going one way, enter, get slammed, stopped out, waaaaaaaaah




Hi Sam, was a roller derby on the LON open today... but i really like days like that lots of deep reversals. 

Got three out of three, but my real issue is not holding my open winners long enough. all of them ended up as 8-10 point winners (spread on two was 2 points) yet i only made  7.53 points... this is the hardest thing i finding on short term stuff atm.


----------



## CanOz

fiftyeight said:


> Hmm I have seen you talk about the hockey stick before.
> 
> So could you infer after the shorts have covered there maybe weakness again?




You know its still not that convincing, i'd would think to really get some upside momentum you'd need to clear 9275ish. Perhaps the ES will bolt north and scare a few out but its not looking like its convincing in the EU session is it? Basically another rotational day.


----------



## Wysiwyg

fiftyeight said:


> Long at 00 stop at 95




Out for 10 points profit or stopped out at a loss/BE?


----------



## fiftyeight

Out at BE. I seen it happening but for some reason I did not move my stop????

I then switched short and caught some that initial move down. But I was getting tired and was not in profit for the night so I was hesitant of leaving it open after I went to bed so I tightened my stop.

Woke up this morning, stopped out and missed the move down. Not very happy with last nights effort. Will give me some stuff to think about today.


----------



## pavilion103

Gee I'm a spud.

Usually strategy is hold on at BE after open if I think it's quite bearish. I think because I didn't get 2 contracts at the high it made me want to lock in profit.

Really should have been 100 points last night. I know I can't nail it every time but contextually the short was really good!


----------



## fiftyeight

After the move down yesterday I mentioned that I was looking for another short as the afternoon volume came back in. This meant i missed the bounce unfortunately. After a missed attempt earlier I got onto this one.

I seen no real reason to cover before the close and after watching the the action after the close recently was happy to hold into last night.

What I should have put more thought into is what to do this morning. I am leaning towards moving my stop to 5210. I will ponder on the drive to work....


----------



## fiftyeight

Stopped at 15. This exit will also require further review.

Now long at 11 and stop at BE


----------



## >Apocalypto<

anyone on the spi this morning? nice bust up off open


----------



## Trembling Hand

>Apocalypto< said:


> anyone on the spi this morning? nice bust up off open




I actually thought the HSI would do a similar thing today. Probably will now but I'v been bullied like a freckled redhead at a S&M convention. :whip 80 contracts in the first hour......and I am......... NOWHERE. (except with a headache!)


----------



## >Apocalypto<

Trembling Hand said:


> I actually thought the HSI would do a similar thing today. Probably will now but I'v been bullied like a freckled redhead at a S&M convention. :whip 80 contracts in the first hour......and I am......... NOWHERE. (except with a headache!)
> 
> View attachment 59738




frustration...TH.

Just looked at the HS, very choppy trading. positive in that is a good end result! thinking of trying a few trades on it but i will spend some time watching it for a while. 

other issue i am using IC Markets spread is 8 pts... HS seems to have no issues running 50 plus point though.


----------



## pavilion103

I've taken a big (calculated) risk on open. 

2 x short in the first minute or so @ 6449, stop 6461 - 24 points risk total. More than usual, but not at all impulsive. 

Both stops to 6554 now so maximum 10 point loss. 


I figure with this volatility around, the chance to nail an entry on open has big pay-off. Last night I probably lost 100 because I only took the one on open.


----------



## ThingyMajiggy

Started out okay today, then cash opened and the whipathon begun, control oneself, controolllllll! Twitching.....finger... :freak3: :dunno:

Need to velcro my hands down away from my mouse. Have tried to stay calm and get a good spot to put a trade on in the direction of what I expect to happen. Lets see...


----------



## ThingyMajiggy

About time I did something right...ish. It worked! A little tooo well  

Damn it's hard to hang on to the dax once in a trade, got a big issue with trigger finger, because of the way it moves I feel like I need to jump on now or miss it altogether, then it'll go to my original entry anyway 

I need some patience....and I need it NOW!!


----------



## pavilion103

2 points down. OUT. 

Looking for potential re-entry near these highs.


----------



## cynic

Whilst this downtrend has been immensely entertaining for a short term shorting strategy I've been playing with on a Forex account, it's been causing my grail some annoyance. 

I'll be interested to see if the DAX yet again decides to spring another surprise upswing towards the 10,000 level.


----------



## pavilion103

Darn it re-entry x 2. 

6447.5, stop 6454.5, both taken out in a couple of minutes. 

Down 17.5 points. 

I didn't adhere to my own rule of having the stop 2 ticks above the high, not one. Would have saved me there. 



I'm not letting this deter me. 

Short again x 2. 

6449, 6455.

If I get taken out here, it will put me down about 30. 



Happy with my trading. 
Just that 1 bloody tick on the 2 positions I took for the second trade.


----------



## fiftyeight

pavilion103 said:


> Looking for potential re-entry near these highs.




What highs?

Short at 42


----------



## fiftyeight

First attempt fail


----------



## pavilion103

High around 55, top of potential triangle. 

Last entries were 6449 x 2.

Waiting to see if this forms a triangle and then breaks.


----------



## ThingyMajiggy

Long @ 43  x1 on dax. 

Your name anything to do with Marco Simoncelli fiftyeight?


----------



## >Apocalypto<

DAX was nice and rocky on the LON open. i was nailed nicely on a buy. traded my way back to a positive day but i have to really work on holding my trades. main weakness i have atm. 

*Sam* try the 5 min on the DAX i started on the 1 min but found it moved way too fast.


----------



## fiftyeight

Ended up short at 46 on my second attempt.

Nope just my fav number. But as he rode with my fav number I followed him a bit and was watching that race.


----------



## fiftyeight

Touched my stop twice, I hope its not 3 strikes and I am out


----------



## fiftyeight

3 strikes and I am out


----------



## pavilion103

One final crack at the top. Stop above the high. Off to bed.


----------



## subterfuge

lost 35 pips today. Better than yeterday at least


----------



## ThingyMajiggy

Left a trade on last night when I went to bed on the dax with target orders at a certain point below...


....well that was close...


----------



## pavilion103

No good last night. Worst night in 2 weeks.

Position trades to the kingside from here I think.

Intra day = be more careful and take smaller wins off support and resistance.


----------



## Trembling Hand

subterfuge said:


> lost 35 pips today. Better than yeterday at least




Or 35 ticks? 

Ticks and or points for futures. Pips for the children trading FX.


----------



## fiftyeight

Hmmm, wanted to be short today on the SPI but all I am seeing is longs. Maybe I just trying to pick tops


----------



## barney

fiftyeight said:


> Hmmm, wanted to be short today on the SPI but all I am seeing is longs. Maybe I just trying to pick tops





At a glance ..... the 10% down moves have historically been areas of caution for Shorts ... except at the very tops .....


----------



## fiftyeight

Thanks Barney that gives some good context.


----------



## pavilion103

I don't trade the SPI often at all but am only using it now for potential position trades. 

Today I thought was a good place contextually for a potential long. 

Open looked good I thought. I got in at 5272 with a wide stop. 

Stop now moved to 5267 with 5 points of open risk. 

Let's see where it goes from here. A good place to be in IF it does take off to the upside.


----------



## fiftyeight

Managed a few points on the initial push up. Will use this for cautious short at 88.

Barney thinking about your chart, when these types of trends fail, is this where you can find bigger moves?


----------



## fiftyeight

Ooops back to the drawing board


----------



## >Apocalypto<

Trembling Hand said:


> Or 35 ticks?
> 
> Ticks and or points for futures. Pips for the children trading FX.




LOL 

*TH the HK50 on IC just opened about 15-20 min ago is that right?*

Anyway just took my first trade, trend break with a high break, Green line ent point... quick one out for 6ish points. will keep looking at her... 

Dow was really moving on open last night... 20 point swings.


----------



## pavilion103

I'm holding. All or nothing position trade.

Tempting to take 40 points but not the plan.


----------



## Trembling Hand

>Apocalypto< said:


> *TH the HK50 on IC just opened about 15-20 min ago is that right?*




Errr not sure what that is? A HSI CFD? The HK futs open at 12:15 with the cash equities opening 12:30 Melb time.


----------



## barney

fiftyeight said:


> Managed a few points on the initial push up. Will use this for cautious short at 88.
> 
> Barney thinking about your chart, when these types of trends fail, is this where you can find bigger moves?





Howdy 58, 

Based solely on the quick eyeball on the chart, I would need a larger than 10% dip to get real bearish.  On top of that I wouldn't be shorting at the lows, I'd be waiting for the retest areas.

If it were Forex, I'd be looking at a couple of scenarios as per charts.  Bear in mind I am still searching for my own edge in all this stuff, so treat my ideas as simply my ideas

Maybe TH or Sam can run an Excel test on something like  .... If the SPI drops 9-10% from its highs, followed by a 60-70% retrace of the first down move  ... what happens etc etc.    Then maybe simply, if the SPI drops more than 10% from its highs, what happens etc.

My gut feel would be any moves greater than 10% would be an indication to start looking for Short entries on any bounces cause they may be dead cats  .... particularly if the next up move is sharp and into new highs (red flag!)  If it just grinds upwards slowly its likely heading back into a trading range.

Cheers.


----------



## >Apocalypto<

Trembling Hand said:


> Errr not sure what that is? A HSI CFD? The HK futs open at 12:15 with the cash equities opening 12:30 Melb time.




IC open their CFD at 12:15 Melb Time, i would say they base it off the future. Just wanted to check with you. As you know it inside out. 

TH the HK50 seems to charge then settle... I have noticed that last few sessions. normally it can have very wide short term moves? still watching it not sure if it's really do able on this 8 point spread CFD.


----------



## barney

>Apocalypto< said:


> not sure if it's really do able on this 8 point spread CFD.





Joe,

These are Axi trader and City Index synthetic HSI spreads.


----------



## >Apocalypto<

barney said:


> Joe,
> 
> These are Axi trader and City Index synthetic HSI spreads.




City are tight.

I miss my IB account.


----------



## avion

>Apocalypto< said:


> City are tight.
> 
> I miss my IB account.




Why did you give up your IB account?


----------



## >Apocalypto<

avion said:


> Why did you give up your IB account?




Hi Avion,

2011 I bought an Automotive parts supply business. Had to use the funds in my IB account for part of the payment. 

Was trading trading CL mainly back then.


----------



## avion

>Apocalypto< said:


> Hi Avion,
> 
> 2011 I bought an Automotive parts supply business. Had to use the funds in my IB account for part of the payment.
> 
> Was trading trading CL mainly back then.




All the best mate. Hope you get back your account soon.


----------



## >Apocalypto<

avion said:


> All the best mate. Hope you get back your account soon.




One day mate one day , i really miss book trader the most. nice to see BIDASK VOL around your entry idea points. not that was very good at reading it. 

One of those open rally to profit taking on the spi today. looks like it's into the 50% point of the march up. DOW DAX rather flat before EURO hour


----------



## pavilion103

Not to be. Out at BE


----------



## >Apocalypto<

stong move down on the DAX to start the day.


----------



## >Apocalypto<

very unforgiving start on the DAX... really nasty.


----------



## >Apocalypto<

DAX  in a very thin spaced out mood so far today :grenade:


----------



## pavilion103

Down 20 tonight.

Finding it hard to read the last 2 nights. 

Annoying that the SPI just took me out and is back up 20 points too. If the US moves up overnight it will hurt


----------



## ThingyMajiggy

Currently sitting on a long from 9074 on the Dax, wouldn't be surprised to see a push higher after yesterday's turn around, will wait and see, sitting on hands at the moment


----------



## fiftyeight

Thanks for the detailed reply Barney, I have learnt a lot since I started playing with real money but a long way to go. Long way. I am starting to have enough lets call them ideas, that I need to learn how to test them.

I guess one of the ideas I am still thinking a lot about, is trading with a trend, and as you have pointed out when there is a pattern of resistance. Maybe be best to sit on the side lines and wait to see what plays out.


----------



## fiftyeight

pavilion103 said:


> Annoying that the SPI just took me out and is back up 20 points too. If the US moves up overnight it will hurt




I thought that might of just taken you out....

I have been watching the SPI after close and I find it a bit easier to read than during the open, do people trade after close? Would you ever re-enter after close?


----------



## ThingyMajiggy

ThingyMajiggy said:


> Currently sitting on a long from 9074 on the Dax, wouldn't be surprised to see a push higher after yesterday's turn around, will wait and see, sitting on hands at the moment




Nope, what would you know you idiot  Back to square one. Next dart at the dartboard until I figure out what I'm supposed to be doing.


----------



## >Apocalypto<

ThingyMajiggy said:


> Nope, what would you know you idiot  Back to square one. Next dart at the dartboard until I figure out what I'm supposed to be doing.




Sam you got out at BE or a small profit on that one? 

Swung very quickly.

I've only had two trades today.. peanut profits... didn't like the look of it on the first 40min so called it a day. will wait up for the DOW hour of power.


----------



## fiftyeight

This DAX thing you talk about sounds interesting, may require investigation


----------



## pavilion103

I feel sick.

The only bloody day that I have a long bias....

Any other day would have had 2 shorts near the high of the initial triangle and probably made 250 points with one lifted early.


----------



## fiftyeight

I was thinking last night PAV must be killing, looked like your kind of setup.


----------



## John Swift

I seem to recall something somebody said about big gap days and the high probability rebound over a 3-day horizon... Anybody know what I'm talking about?

I actually can't remember who said what exactly, but it seemed pretty interesting at the time.


----------



## pavilion103

FTSE out of hours action this morning = ridiculous


----------



## fiftyeight

What a roller coaster of a morning. Absolutely terrible. Was short on the SPI at 5249 last night and am now back BE. 

Broke just about every rule I set for my self 

No point working on entries and exits if I blow up like that.


----------



## skyQuake

pavilion103 said:


> FTSE out of hours action this morning = ridiculous




Looks like some people had stop market instead of stop limits

Surprising the amount of volume that actually traded down there!


----------



## >Apocalypto<

pavilion103 said:


> FTSE out of hours action this morning = ridiculous




do you think that sell down was a fat finger? 63 points in 5 min


----------



## pavilion103

Absolute textbook bread and butter tonight.

2 x short around 6370.

I was out tonight would have exited one at 6310 for 60. Had to settle for 6330 on the way back up.

Trade 1 = 40 points profit
Trade 2 = running (currently 40 points open profit).

Could not have been clearer tonight.


----------



## pavilion103

US will determine everything from here.

Another powerful smash down and I'm laughing. With current volatility could easily be a big push up and I'm out at BE.

Either way a good night


----------



## pavilion103

Moved the second stop too tight. Stopped out 6335 on the second. Annoying.


----------



## pavilion103

SPI also annoying. I took a short at the open yesterday. With a stop above the high. I moved my stop in a sensible way but just got taken out 

That would have been a handy 70 points.

Feeling like there could be some very big pay days in the next 12 months if I can tidy up a few rough edges and implement a couple of ideas. Particularly moving to 3-4 contracts next year will give a lot of flexibility and confidence to implement varied and diversified trade management.


----------



## fiftyeight

After donating my profits back to the market, I am on a self imposed exile.

After breaking many of my rules I have decided to write them down and attempt to be more structured.

I was wondering what rules other people use?


----------



## pavilion103

fiftyeight said:


> After donating my profits back to the market, I am on a self imposed exile.
> 
> After breaking many of my rules I have decided to write them down and attempt to be more structured.
> 
> I was wondering what rules other people use?




How the heck did you give back your profit?

I thought you were well up this (and last?) week?

From your posts it seemed like you were on fire.


----------



## pavilion103

I am lamenting missed opportunities this week. 

Following two big weeks my account moves little this week. This isn't usually an issue at all, but it was for last week given the amount of opportunity available. It was quite bizarre how I came out with just about nothing. Anything from $3,000-5,000 for the opportunities presented would have been about par. It was a really good week to be trading. 

But need to put that all behind me and focus on trade by trade as they happen this week. 


The last month, I have gained so much clarity in terms of my more specific rules, setups, holding times etc. I haven't nailed it all but I'm understanding more and more how I want to trade. Also my discipline has been really good. I haven't gone crazy but I've also pulled the trigger when needed. 


The plan is to continue from now on with 2 contracts, however if really good opportunities form maybe begin to move to a 3rd. Then at the beginning of the year I will re-assess. Maybe 3 then becomes the norm if I have a strong end to this year and maybe the DAX gets a bit of a look early next year. 

Plenty to think about.


----------



## fiftyeight

Sorry just my open profits from Friday. I have actually had a good run but I feel this may have been more due to luck. 

My starting amount of sports bet winnings has become more substantial. Therefore after Fridays blow up it seemed a good time to take a pause. But there seems to be money made at the moment so hopefully just a short pause.


----------



## tech/a

fiftyeight said:


> Sorry just my open profits from Friday. I have actually had a good run but I feel this may have been more due to luck.
> 
> My starting amount of sports bet winnings has become more substantial. Therefore after Fridays blow up it seemed a good time to take a pause. But there seems to be money made at the moment so hopefully just a short pause.




If as you have --- you recognize an opportunity and you place your money in front of it
And it goes in you favor --- it's not luck.
If you put money on everything and anything and it goes in your favor it's luck.

Making a calculated investment can be seen by many as luck.
---it's not!


----------



## pavilion103

It seems that with this "game" there are ways to stack the odds to heavily in your favour. It really is unbelievable. 

Especially in the market we have had the previous 3 weeks. If my average initial risk is 7 points and trading days are providing regular 50 point moves, often over 100 in this market, then with a few good setups the odds are so heavily in our favour. For a 70 point move we'd only have to be correct 1/11 times (9%) to BE. And in a market which is clearly trending, it isn't tough to pick the direction. The accuracy would be more like 65-75% in this market. That is a HUGE EDGE. 

Heck, even if you had no specific setups, you could wait until price settles on open and then get in and have a stop above the high of the day 20-30 points away and still have an edge in this market. 

I know these conditions aren't a regular thing, but I'm just illustrating how big the edge can be.


----------



## tech/a

pavilion103 said:


> It seems that with this "game" there are ways to stack the odds to heavily in your favour. It really is unbelievable.
> 
> Especially in the market we have had the previous 3 weeks. If my average initial risk is 7 points and trading days are providing regular 50 point moves, often over 100 in this market, then with a few good setups the odds are so heavily in our favour. For a 70 point move we'd only have to be correct 1/11 times (9%) to BE. And in a market which is clearly trending, it isn't tough to pick the direction. The accuracy would be more like 65-75% in this market. That is a HUGE EDGE.
> 
> Heck, even if you had no specific setups, you could wait until price settles on open and then get in and have a stop above the high of the day 20-30 points away and still have an edge in this market.
> 
> I know these conditions aren't a regular thing, but I'm just illustrating how big the edge can be.




PAV 
You've traded the FTSE long enough to know that you don't have to trade everyday
And that there are times when momentum is as clear as the sky is blue.
Long or short. 

When you see it hop on it.


----------



## pavilion103

3 x 8 point loss.

Thought I'd nailed it when the big down bar happened.

Prob too ambitious taking a 3rd tonight. No real critical resistance levels on open.


----------



## fiftyeight

tech/a said:


> If you put money on everything and anything and it goes in your favor it's luck.




Yes most of time I identified a spot I wanted to enter, but there times on reflection I had no real plan. I definitely over traded a few nights. Friday was just a blow up. 

Also my exits need lots of work, but I feel this may be assisted with 2 contracts and being able to lift one and let one run. But this is more than my account will allow so I will have to just work on 1 contract for now.

I am also in the process switching to AMP so I can have a play around with NT.

I have been spending some time looking at BookTrader but I still cannot see anything. The only thing I have noticed is when the total amount of Bids exceeds Asks (and Vise Versa) by about 150-200 there seems to be a move. Apart from that it is all just numbers moving to me


----------



## CanOz

fiftyeight said:


> I have been spending some time looking at BookTrader but I still cannot see anything. The only thing I have noticed is when the total amount of Bids exceeds Asks (and Vise Versa) by about 150-200 there seems to be a move. Apart from that it is all just numbers moving to me




This is good, watch how the book thins out at times...and where that is.


----------



## CanOz

This little pop doesn't seem to be too convincing, the volumes dropping off again...need some short covering after the US opens to keep this move going.


----------



## fiftyeight

I drew this line weeks ago not thinking much of it, wish I had of

Possibly a move up?

View attachment 59814


----------



## pavilion103

6360 a good level to short at.

6300 a looser level that has acted as minor support and resistance.

Tough to know how much pausing price needs.


----------



## dlineinvestor

Hi,
Near term resistance levels 
Support and near term targets for next move in 24 hrs

A retest and break down at 6360/6380 would present a good shrt entry for target at 6260
 cheers


----------



## pavilion103

Was down 20 on the open. Annoying. 

Now short 6322 and stop @ BE. 

Leaving this. 

After a couple of days little pause on the FTSE. I wonder if this will push down hard.


----------



## dlineinvestor

I should really take my own analysis ... but was trading the DAX.
See if this short target works out .....


----------



## fiftyeight

Plenty of money to be made on the SPI today, Saw the point I would of entered, but with 1 contract think I would of been stopped at 5170. Today's push up may also make shorts very tempting. Maybe an expensive time to be in exile.

Hmmm I was thinking the FTSE may have also had a smallish push up today.


----------



## pavilion103

If the US falls again tonight, the short at the high of the SPI today looks like a golden opportunity was there. 

I was tempted at around the 88 level with the stop 04. 

But just seemed like a bit of a gamble right at the end of the day and European markets about to open. 

Was watching the SPI today for shorts at the high. Didn't have the guts to pull the trigger. I don't like other market potentially dictating the outcome.


----------



## dlineinvestor

Pav,
I know what you mean but "ultimately it's trade what you see"
Even if it's a tiny position where you don't even care.
I've gained 29 points my short 5208 , this is not a gloat by any means just an exercise of believing in your analysis and thus your self. After a while it starts to become part of your psyche and that's where a trader needs to be.
I will add I have a long way to go in controlling those emotions that trading houses rely on so much for their massive income !
Cheers,


----------



## fiftyeight

Didn't trade last night, but sitting back and watching I think I seen a few of the traps I would of fell in to. I had a long bias but would of been stopped out a few times and over traded. A night to print off and take some free lessons.


----------



## pavilion103

SPI 

5227 short


----------



## pavilion103

Short x2 FTSE

6335, 6331

Exited first one for 45 points. 


Second one running near BE. 

Wanted to keep both going, but my fault for not taking a 3rd. The rule is exit the 1st one around a good support area once 30-40 up... I'll stick to it. 

One going on the SPI also. 


Hoping for a big pay day. But could end up with the 40 which isn't too bad.


----------



## dlineinvestor

Good work Pavilion ... I some how managed 600 out of this mess ... lol, tired now done for the eve.
May have been more a!! than cla!!


----------



## pavilion103

Woah. DOW got down about 350 points near open!!!

I'm not greedy. I'm taking my profits and running.

1st contract = 40
2nd contract = 110

SPI contract = 50

All closed out.


----------



## fiftyeight

Great work PAV

I thought you would of left both open as position trades, seems like a good place to be Short?


----------



## pavilion103

fiftyeight said:


> Great work PAV  I thought you would of left both open as position trades, seems like a good place to be Short?




Gee it's a tough call. Take $4K off the table or leave it open in an already extended move. I guess this could represent the next phase of the move down. I've been waiting for it to halt but it hasn't.

I'll try and get on again tonight. 

Any reasons why the SPI didn't fall much? Was expecting a bigger move with the US.

Volatility crazy on the US. Can't believe it fell beyond 450 after rebounding from the initial fall.


----------



## pavilion103

This highlights the need for 3 contracts for me.

Need more flexibility to feel comfortable finding a balance between taking profit and letting it run.

1 @ 30/40
1 @ close the next morning
1 @ letting it run 

That would make me feel happier.


----------



## fiftyeight

Haha yeah a very tough call. I think they all will be at this stage. Leaving that much on the table is a tough one. I think I would done something stupid like move my stop, get stopped out giving a bunch back but not leaving it wide enough to get set for a position trade.

Yeah the SPI seems to be holding up wellish, I guess I have not watched long enough but does that mean when it goes its going to go with bang. So if you can get set in a spot like last night in recent highs it is worth holding on to?


----------



## fiftyeight

pavilion103 said:


> This highlights the need for 3 contracts for me.
> 
> Need more flexibility to feel comfortable finding a balance between taking profit and letting it run.
> 
> 1 @ 30/40
> 1 @ close the next morning
> 1 @ letting it run
> 
> That would make me feel happier.




+1

Seems like the way forward to me.


----------



## fiftyeight

Something I have been pondering, and has come up while I have been watching the SPI.

Something is in a well defined range and for what ever reason you really want to enter, lets assume long and its a 10 point range but your target risk is only 5 points.

You can place a buy stop above this to capture it when it "breaks" out, however your stop loss should probably be below the recent range, which means you now have a stop loss of lets say 14 points.

You could buy stop on the break, with a 5 point risk and accept it may take a few goes to get set or just have one crack and if you get lucky good.

You could buy limit at the lower end of the range so you stop loss is within your target risk and below recent range

Or what I feel the answer is, you could just not take the trade???


----------



## pavilion103

Back in the SPI where I exited yesterday. Wanted to see if it would fail another test then resume.


----------



## kid hustlr

fiftyeight said:


> Something I have been pondering, and has come up while I have been watching the SPI.
> 
> Something is in a well defined range and for what ever reason you really want to enter, lets assume long and its a 10 point range but your target risk is only 5 points.
> 
> You can place a buy stop above this to capture it when it "breaks" out, however your stop loss should probably be below the recent range, which means you now have a stop loss of lets say 14 points.
> 
> You could buy stop on the break, with a 5 point risk and accept it may take a few goes to get set or just have one crack and if you get lucky good.
> 
> You could buy limit at the lower end of the range so you stop loss is within your target risk and below recent range
> 
> Or what I feel the answer is, you could just not take the trade???




58,

I pondered this myself over the past week or 2. with increased volatility perceived stops are now very wide at times and make entering difficult unless you've got pav's balls of steel. I did have a bit of an epiphany last night though, will try to give a couple of examples on the weekend. TH has spoken before about breakout trading futures being amateur and I think he's right. Examples on the weekend if I can find the time.

Take it with a grain of salt mind you I haven't made any money the last 2 weeks.


----------



## tech/a

kid hustlr said:


> 58,
> 
> I pondered this myself over the past week or 2. with increased volatility perceived stops are now very wide at times and make entering difficult unless you've got pav's balls of steel. I did have a bit of an epiphany last night though, will try to give a couple of examples on the weekend. *TH has spoken before about breakout trading futures being amateur and I think he's right*. Examples on the weekend if I can find the time.
> 
> Take it with a grain of salt mind you I haven't made any money the last 2 weeks.




I don't know about that.
One thing Ive worked with PAV on is bring your stop the B/E as quick as practical.
Sure youll get stopped out often and I know PAV has been frustrated initially with what he perceived as 
losses that he could have had as gains had he had a wider stop.

But in the end his R/R is massive due to exactly the point Ive been making for ages---stops at B/E keep you on the right side of a trade.
You want to be there often and for as long as you can.

So what if you have 20 B/E losses to 2 Whopping gains!

You'll always be in the game and you wont ever be worried about getting stuck in a long term R/R killing D/Down.

On the Highlighted comment.
Every single decent move comes from a breakout!
Show me where they don't.
How are you going to get a big move without a breakout from something.

Sure you'll get whipsawed but that's what B/E trades are about.

Sure you can do 100 trades of 2-5 ticks and not worry about breakouts.
In a single session.


----------



## Trembling Hand

Breakout buy zone for me is in the blue. Not the Red


----------



## tech/a

Trembling Hand said:


> Breakout buy zone for me is in the blue. Not the Red
> 
> View attachment 59865




Yes and that's a fair enough setup/s
I admit less risk and opportunity to get the B/E as well.

But also the one minute chart of the other day---*as its happening *is pretty hard to ignore.
I see it often on the DAX.
Its pretty easy (When your there watching it) To pick up 20+ ticks in minutes.

This chart you've just put up looks like its going to go.
My buy would be 22942
initial stop 22985
and move to B/E at around 22952
Without watching it about 60-80 ticks in it.


----------



## avion

tech/a said:


> My buy would be 22942
> initial stop 22985
> and move to B/E at around 22952
> Without watching it about 60-80 ticks in it.




Tech, do you mean 'initial target' or you got the number wrong...?


----------



## tech/a

avion said:


> Tech, do you mean 'initial target' or you got the number wrong...?




Ooops
22885


----------



## dlineinvestor

tech/a said:


> I don't know about that.
> One thing Ive worked with PAV on is bring your stop the B/E as quick as practical.
> Sure youll get stopped out often and I know PAV has been frustrated initially with what he perceived as
> losses that he could have had as gains had he had a wider stop.
> 
> But in the end his R/R is massive due to exactly the point Ive been making for ages---stops at B/E keep you on the right side of a trade.
> You want to be there often and for as long as you can.
> 
> So what if you have 20 B/E losses to 2 Whopping gains!
> 
> You'll always be in the game and you wont ever be worried about getting stuck in a long term R/R killing D/Down.
> 
> On the Highlighted comment.
> Every single decent move comes from a breakout!
> Show me where they don't.
> How are you going to get a big move without a breakout from something.
> 
> Sure you'll get whipsawed but that's what B/E trades are about.
> 
> Sure you can do 100 trades of 2-5 ticks and not worry about breakouts.
> In a single session.




A good practise, some thing I will be mindful of. Thank's
Very hard to do especially on the DAX but then again it all depends on how valid your setup is.
Swinging is less work but you have to wait ...  another thing most can't do. 
Comes with maturing as a trader and a sign that your there or not


----------



## PinguPingu

Damn, the SPI is like the little engine that could today.


----------



## Trembling Hand

tech/a said:


> Ooops
> 22885




That is, unlike the very rare straight running chart I posted the other day, is why I don't normally buy or sell the break. 

Stopped.





Although it got there in the end.


----------



## dlineinvestor

Don't mention the SPI ... 
I was up a lot then got caught in this box (trading range) PLUS it was the pivot point area 
Never again  anyone ... learn from this one if u don't already know it. Stay out of these areas 
Still in slight profit but argggg.


----------



## tech/a

Think I got my trade in!----

Ok Thanks for the chart I don't Have R/T.
I can see other trades after my stop out.
But that's trading.

I think I got my B/E stop in.
IE Traded to 42 took trade then to 52 then to B/E.

Can you have a look?


----------



## dlineinvestor

dlineinvestor said:


> Don't mention the SPI ...
> I was up a lot then got caught in this box (trading range) PLUS it was the pivot point area
> Never again  anyone ... learn from this one if u don't already know it. Stay out of these areas
> Still in slight profit but argggg.




Never give up ... caught this with a hefty size 
What gave me the indication it would pop upward was counting candle types on 15 min (bull vs Bear)and noticing higher lows as trading range moved along !
Sometimes you just have to be patient ... "Correction ALL the time !


----------



## Trembling Hand

tech/a said:


> But that's trading.




Yes. Yes it is! 

The way I play it is buy the support let a _little _go in the red zone and hope to get a chance to build up more and more until the target is hit. That way I have booked some profit even if it comes back on me. If it doesn't give me another chance well then thats just trading.  And it is another day I'm right but make not much... which is also just trading. But what I am trying to do is get an idea (today bullish), get larger term S/R for targets and stop on the initial idea, build a position throughout the session by playing the smaller timeframe charts and hope I can build to full size before it gets to my target.

Today is has been about as perfect a day for that.


----------



## tech/a

Trembling Hand said:


> Yes. Yes it is!
> 
> The way I play it is buy the support let a _little _go in the red zone and hope to get a chance to build up more and more until the target is hit. That way I have booked some profit even if it comes back on me. If it doesn't give me another chance well then thats just trading.  And it is another day I'm right but make not much... which is also just trading. But what I am trying to do is get an idea (today bullish), get larger term S/R for targets and stop on the initial idea, build a position throughout the session by playing the smaller timeframe charts and hope I can build to full size before it gets to my target.
> 
> Today is has been about as perfect a day for that.
> 
> View attachment 59870




OK

I agree this is excellent trading. I like it.

Now Questions

(1) How far into the blue do you allow further tests before you off load original long orders?
(2) How do you determine when you'll book some profit when it starts coming back on you.
IE how far back does it have to come. I note not far enough in the first and second pullback
infact the second becomes a new buy area.


----------



## Trembling Hand

tech/a said:


> OK
> 
> I agree this is excellent trading. I like it.
> 
> Now Questions
> 
> (1) How far into the blue do you allow further tests before you off load original long orders?




Until I spew up the order . It can go through it a good bit. In spite of the nice straight boxes my S/R are more about time and a bit more dynamic than a static line. I'll still hang on if I think the original idea is still ok. Unless it absolutely blows through I'll try and wait to see how the next wave up acts.



tech/a said:


> (2) How do you determine when you'll book some profit when it starts coming back on you.



No I don't wait till it comes back I have orders sitting that will get taken out on pushes up, kinda where people will be entering breakout trades.



tech/a said:


> I note not far enough in the first and second pullback infact the second becomes a new buy area.



That was just the nice setup today. normally its far more messy.


----------



## pavilion103

What are people's thoughts on the bigger picture?

Does last night's action look like it could make this a point from which prices bounce a little. The DOW looks almost like a shakeout type bar. 

FTSE not so much. Tonight's action will be important. 

I wonder if it pushes down a little to test the lows and then pushes up. 

I don't know. I'm treading with caution particularly following the action on the US last night. 


Any other thoughts?


----------



## skyQuake

I thought last night's action in the US was very bullish.

Gap down and start to rally, everyone gets suckered in. Then it makes FRESH LOWS - everyone gets stopped out. Before the final 'real' rally.


----------



## CanOz

Trembling Hand said:


> Until I spew up the order . It can go through it a good bit. In spite of the nice straight boxes my S/R are more about time and a bit more dynamic than a static line. I'll still hang on if I think the original idea is still ok. Unless it absolutely blows through I'll try and wait to see how the next wave up acts.
> 
> 
> No I don't wait till it comes back I have orders sitting that will get taken out on pushes up, kinda where people will be entering breakout trades.
> 
> 
> That was just the nice setup today. normally its far more messy.




After the last five years of posts, I have finally got the confirmation I was looking for...you're doing pretty much what I thought you were doing in the HSI, starting with a small core position and working up the size and getting more aggressive as it goes your way....I'm satisfied now.


----------



## kid hustlr

Tech/A I'll post charts on the weekend and you'll see we are on the same side of the fence. I don't disagree with any of your comments. The point I ultimately want to make (and altho I only scanned the posts above quickly I think it already has been) is that if you think its going to break you need to be on before it breaks. ticking new lows and highs is a good way to go broke. 

I recall you posted an excellent walk through example of a stock some months back, in the congestion zone you spoke about taking trades at the highs/lows ANTICIPATING the next move. That's good winning trading.


----------



## dlineinvestor

kid hustlr said:


> Tech/A I'll post charts on the weekend and you'll see we are on the same side of the fence. I don't disagree with any of your comments. The point I ultimately want to make (and altho I only scanned the posts above quickly I think it already has been) is that if you think its going to break you need to be on before it breaks. ticking new lows and highs is a good way to go broke.
> 
> I recall you posted an excellent walk through example of a stock some months back, in the congestion zone you spoke about taking trades at the highs/lows ANTICIPATING the next move. That's good winning trading.




Thank's kid .. 
On the subject of "anticipating the next move, how many of you use the DOM 
IE: If resistance will look like it will hold or break ? Versa support too.

I've been using "reading candle moves with momentum, if it does move higher than R than I get in.
Just hate those smash downs when they happen 

Cheers,


----------



## pavilion103

Missed the move down! Grrr! That was big. 

Market 6173 as the area to try and get a long at. 


Annoying.


----------



## pavilion103

Wow I've stuffed it tonight.

Was short x 2 @6225.

Exited both to look for a long. Why why why try and guess a low.

This hurts!

Made some losses on open so up a grand total of 10 points


----------



## fiftyeight

So I went to JB HiFi and bought my self a 24 inch monitor  the laptop was just not cutting it.

To celebrate I removed my self from exile and managed to get short 6205.

Took one off at 6149 (wish I didn't) and still holding the other.

Some good posts re my question this morning, bit busy will look again asap


----------



## >Apocalypto<

pavilion103 said:


> Wow I've stuffed it tonight.
> 
> Was short x 2 @6225.
> 
> Exited both to look for a long. Why why why try and guess a low.
> 
> This hurts!
> 
> Made some losses on open so up a grand total of 10 points




Don't worry Pav, i've only had one trade on the DAX for 10pts as well. missed all the juicy stuff taking my son out. didn't expect a repeat of last night  to the down side.


----------



## >Apocalypto<

some unbelievable volatility around atm


----------



## skyQuake

I think that quick dip below 6050 on the FTSE = false brk to stop out the last few longs

Long here imo


----------



## kid hustlr

ballsy to buy anything here imo


----------



## >Apocalypto<

skyQuake said:


> I think that quick dip below 6050 on the FTSE = false brk to stop out the last few longs
> 
> Long here imo




not on the DAX for me the thing is moving 30pts like nothing. i'm sitting and waiting for something clear. 

DAXinator on a 5 min bar moved down 97+ points. angry


----------



## pavilion103

skyQuake said:


> I think that quick dip below 6050 on the FTSE = false brk to stop out the last few longs  Long here imo




Doesn't look like a shakeout which has pushed back up quickly.

This is going even lower IMO.


I haven't taken a trade since I turned it off. Smart.


----------



## pavilion103

Oh didn't see that little dip below. 

Still not gutsy enough to go long here.


----------



## skyQuake

ftse drops 200pts then rallies 100, has one of the highest vol bars (non-close) bars I've ever seen!

Hopefully that 6050 level is a swing low


----------



## pavilion103

skyQuake said:


> I think that quick dip below 6050 on the FTSE = false brk to stop out the last few longs  Long here imo




Good call


----------



## pavilion103

If yesterday starts to look a bit bullish then this morning looks much more so.

I think what I need to drill in is that I don't have to be a hero and get in at the absolute bottom or top of a pivot. Confirmation first will reduce losses.

Then if I get on NEAR the start of a decent move I'll be able to capture a large portion of it. I think what I am concerned about is trying to take a position trade and getting taken out because my stop isn't at the absolute top/ bottom. Stupid and costly thinking. There is always plenty of opportunity to capture a move.


----------



## fiftyeight

Yeah buying at the bottom the range definitely seems to have a few advantages including getting to B/E quickly. Loosing money is not fun. But probably need to be at the screen to make it work, maybe I should just quit my job now: 

Cheers Kid look forward to it.

I have been watching the DOM to try and see something, but not happening yet.

Thanks for the input TH, obviously not the way I want to trade but I think there is some ideas there I can steal


----------



## tech/a

fiftyeight said:


> Yeah buying at the bottom the range definitely seems to have a few advantages including getting to B/E quickly. Loosing money is not fun. But probably need to be at the screen to make it work, maybe I should just quit my job now:
> 
> Cheers Kid look forward to it.
> 
> I have been watching the DOM to try and see something, but not happening yet.
> 
> Thanks for the input TH, obviously not the way I want to trade but I think there is some ideas there I can steal




In practice its not as clear cut as just placing long buys at a support zone or shorts at a resistance zone.
The questions I asked T/H do come into play and as his reply makes clear there are no clear cut points of reference to hang your plan on. He just keeps looking to see if its his mother coming out of the crowd---or if un recognisable gets out.

There are ways of playing all setups and making them as risk averse as possible while always trying to increase % winners and decrease losers.

Personally I know I'm going to have losers and if I use the go to B/E method Ill have a lot more stopped out.
*BUT WHAT I DO KNOW* Is that when I get on momentum my winning value will be well above my combined losers. My Reward to risk in real terms will be more than acceptable.


----------



## pavilion103

Tech, the way that you taught me to trade resonated strongly with me from the beginning. I know that there are many successful approaches and that there are many traders, even on here, who are far more successful than I right now who use other approaches. But to me it makes sense. 

One of my most beneficial observations is this:

Almost every time, my best trades *take off from the start.*

If this doesn't occur, I find myself "hoping" that the trade will continue in my direction. 

Once the trade is far enough along, the stop goes to BE. 

Sure it is frustrating being stopped at BE. But MOST times that I get stopped at BE, if I had left the initial stop where it was it would have been taken out. 

The peace of mind is incredible though. There is little worry about the downside. The account consistently builds. 

With this level of risk management I can then, over time, continue to add more contracts if I want profit to increase, all the while, minimising my risk. 


Further to this, most of my setups actually come in the first hour and near the high or low of the day. Stop to BE. Maybe take one (or both) off for 30-40 and set and forget if I want to leave it overnight in a trend. 1 hour of my time after work. Perfect.


----------



## tech/a

> *Almost every time, my best trades take off from the start*




Mine too.



> The peace of mind is incredible though. There is little worry about the downside. The account consistently builds.




All the things you'd want from a good business---even if its part time.


----------



## Trembling Hand

tech/a said:


> In practice its not as clear cut as just placing long buys at a support zone or shorts at a resistance zone.
> The questions I asked T/H do come into play and as his reply makes clear there are no clear cut points of reference to hang your plan on. He just keeps looking to see if its his mother coming out of the crowd---or if un recognisable gets out.




Actually what has probably been overlook and will greatly confuse chart watches is this,



Trembling Hand said:


> In spite of the nice straight boxes my S/R are more about *time *and a bit more dynamic than a static line.




I'm probably not trading S/R as much as that chart I posted indicates.


----------



## avion

tech/a said:


> He just keeps looking to see if its his mother coming out of the crowd...




 ...funny, but i understand what you are trying to communicate Tech. Just wonder if you've ever experienced some of those moments (trades) yourself? Maybe they are the only trades you take... It seems TH is experiencing those every day multiple times. On the other hand if you have a plan how the day is going to play out you only need minimal amount of confirmation, ie the speed of order hits, other market behaviors, etc... What sort of experience is required to achieve reasonable level of performance. I reckon minimum of 5 years...


----------



## tech/a

Trembling Hand said:


> Actually what has probably been overlook and will greatly confuse chart watches is this,
> 
> 
> 
> I'm probably not trading S/R as much as that chart I posted indicates.





The Vid is cryptic!

If it is more about time (and I do see this in more forms than just consolidation moves.)
I presume the decision to stay in an anticipated move IE Buying as price hits a zone---diminishes with time.
Meaning the anticipation for the move to pan out diminishes and as such helps your buy/hold or sell process.

As for time.
If I'm on or see a move going vertical I know this isn't going to go on infinitum.
The longer it goes and the longer the consolidation at the end of it (Generally after a massive volume bar) the more likely the outcome will be determined by the length of time price does what it does.--Short or long.

I know you know what I mean.


----------



## tech/a

avion said:


> ...funny, but i understand what you are trying to communicate Tech. Just wonder if you've ever experienced some of those moments (trades) yourself? Maybe they are the only trades you take... It seems TH is experiencing those every day multiple times. On the other hand if you have a plan how the day is going to play out you only need minimal amount of confirmation, ie the speed of order hits, other market behaviors, etc... What sort of experience is required to achieve reasonable level of performance. I reckon minimum of 5 years...




Yes I know what he means.
He is doing this far more than I am being a prop trader.
I'm at my desk running a civil construction company.
He sees his mother more often than I do!

I personally think its the number of charts you watch.
as T/H has said get as much as you can crank the speed to 10x and absorb!
So if you look at 10,000 charts after 20,000 you'll be better and 50,0000 better still.
*You end up feeling it----as its happening.*


----------



## Weatsop

tech/a said:


> He sees his mother more often than I do!




Why, how often do you see his mother?


----------



## Trembling Hand

tech/a said:


> The Vid is cryptic!




You obviously haven't seen breaking bad?!



tech/a said:


> Yes I know what he means.
> He is doing this far more than I am being a prop trader.
> I'm at my desk running a civil construction company.
> He sees his mother more often than I do!




Yeah I think that it boils down to me being at the screen throughout the whole day every day vs you who hasn't the time to waste doing that. 

You trade this (Red bit) because its most efficient use of limited time,





I trade this (Red bit),




Although ultimately I am also trying to get the huge move just like you but my method has evolved to take $ out on most days even if that huge move doesn't show up. Which for lots of reasons is often.


----------



## ThingyMajiggy

Trembling Hand said:


> I trade this (Red bit),
> 
> View attachment 59879
> 
> 
> Although ultimately I am also trying to get the huge move just like you but my method has evolved to take $ out on most days even if that huge move doesn't show up. Which for lots of reasons is often.




I assume again that chart is not showing what most would take from it, that it's more based on time not S&R? Are you referring to swings in X minute intervals? Can you explain more?


----------



## avion

ThingyMajiggy said:


> I assume again that chart is not showing what most would take from it, that it's more based on time not S&R? Are you referring to swings in X minute intervals? Can you explain more?




Indicates just a chop to me, he is able to trade chop or noise to most...


----------



## barney

avion said:


> if you have a plan how the day is going to play out you only need minimal amount of confirmation




For me, that's all I am trying to learn to recognise from this point forward.  I've traded badly for so long its hard to fix it, but the aim is clear ......

You need to have a bias (based on past information/back testing/your own experience) on where the day (if a day trader), or the week (if a swinger) is likely to head towards .... If you get the bias wrong and/or don't recognise it early enough you will get crucified.  I used to get crucified regularly; now I only get horse whipped or on a good night, spanked

Assuming the correct bias, and gradually loading up enough positions to take advantage of the "explosion" by trading in and out of the short term Range is an absolute art form and I am still amazed at how good some people are at it.

That's my take on it anyway .... could be totally wrong


----------



## avion

Not wrong at all barney... As for psychological damage, it is serious stuff, very hard to overcome. 9 out of 10 trades i still exit to early. Conquering yourself is the holy grail imho.


----------



## Trembling Hand

ThingyMajiggy said:


> I assume again that chart is not showing what most would take from it, that it's more based on time not S&R?




Correct. That is not a chart representation of price but rather momentum. Nothing moves in a straight line and support and resistance in terms of a nice straight area on a chart are continually breached. But if you can recognise that the momentum comes and goes in waves while moving towards a higher time frame target S/R become more dynamic in terms of price and more static in terms of a time.


----------



## avion

Whoa, now we are onto something... Go on Sam, ask more questions, you know what to ask unlike myself...


----------



## tech/a

Look at the chart again.,

He's trading reversion to the mean and swings---as they do away from that mean.

Love it.

Sit down and watch a pendulum.
Bet you see a recognisable face!

Charts do the same in an erratic manner.
Its not noise if you know what your looking for.


----------



## dlineinvestor

Trembling Hand said:


> Correct. That is not a chart representation of price but rather momentum. Nothing moves in a straight line and support and resistance in terms of a nice straight area on a chart are continually breached. But if you can recognise that the momentum comes and goes in waves while moving towards a higher time frame target S/R become more dynamic in terms of price and more static in terms of a time.



Do you only use volume to track momentum on your chart ... ?
Cheers


----------



## dlineinvestor

What I get from those simplistic charts TH posted is what all of trading is based on.
Oddly enough I've only come to realise it lately. 

First chart Noise followed by higher low then breakout

Second Trading range buy at support sell at resistance.

Happens all day long in every market around the globe.

The problem for anyone not making money is in their difficulty to see those patterns form in real time so they know what to expect and know how to trade it.


----------



## Weatsop

dlineinvestor said:


> What I get from those simplistic charts TH posted is what all of trading is based on.
> Oddly enough I've only come to realise it lately.
> 
> ...
> 
> Second Trading range buy at support sell at resistance.




Only, he just said that's not S&R. Go back and have a think.

(Note well: I can't trade chop at all, so please don't think I'm being smug. Last night's EUR/USD in the Europe session is a prime example. I can't trade that. Can't do it. I sit out and go onto sim and try to find SOMETHING, but I've never cracked it. The only thing I can be proud about days like that is that I can see them at a glance and stay the hell out).


----------



## Trembling Hand

dlineinvestor said:


> Do you only use volume to track momentum on your chart ... ?
> Cheers




No.        (there are obvious volume set ups but that is not what I am talking bout)


----------



## barney

avion said:


> Not wrong at all barney... As for psychological damage, it is serious stuff, very hard to overcome. 9 out of 10 trades i still exit to early. Conquering yourself is the holy grail imho.




Yeah it can be a tough gig that's for sure ... Confidence in whatever trading method we use is the key to unlock the door for mine. I have a lot of ideas/questions I'd like to test but have no way of back testing ...... Excel is like another language once I get past adding and multiplying


----------



## barney

dlineinvestor said:


> Do you only use volume to track momentum on your chart ... ?
> Cheers




Again just my interpretation, but Momentum simply becomes the "Indicator" which confirms the directional bias, and the directional bias is the statistical edge which has already been confirmed by back testing etc etc.  If I've got the bull by the horns I'm sure TH will correct me


----------



## dlineinvestor

Weatsop said:


> Only, he just said that's not S&R. Go back and have a think.
> 
> (Note well: I can't trade chop at all, so please don't think I'm being smug. Last night's EUR/USD in the Europe session is a prime example. I can't trade that. Can't do it. I sit out and go onto sim and try to find SOMETHING, but I've never cracked it. The only thing I can be proud about days like that is that I can see them at a glance and stay the hell out).




I've re-read last few posts and s and r is not what TH is talking about, +1 weatsop.
When I looked at the sinewave chart I thought TH was illustrating buy in supp sell at resistance but no.

This works most of the time BUT what I struggle with is when do you believe either will hold when your about to pull the trigger?. 
I did ask this question earlier on post # 3633  page 182 but no replies yet.

Hence my ask to TH about how he tracks momentum, was it volume he said "yes but "not in this example.
So tech says its about reverting to the mean.

What constitutes the mean ?  
I would appreciate a price chart with a revert to mean example, anyone else ? Use the DAX for example
Cheers for any input


----------



## kid hustlr

anyone on IB got data issues? I've got like 600 lots traded so far in the cash session???

hahah doesnt open til 6 TGIF


----------



## Trembling Hand

dlineinvestor said:


> I've re-read last few posts and s and r is not what TH is talking about, +1 weatsop.
> When I looked at the sinewave chart I thought TH was illustrating buy in supp sell at resistance but no.
> 
> This works most of the time BUT what I struggle with is when do you believe either will hold when your about to pull the trigger?.
> I did ask this question earlier on post # 3633  page 182 but no replies yet.




Mate I don't worry so much about a hard line on the chart as support because I know that to get from point A to point B on a larger time frame there is going to be many zigs and zags on the shorter time frames to get there. Many of them will push through what looks like tradition S/R on a chart and then come back and push through ones on the other side, that is the market. It is designed to trap the obvious play. And yet it does move to support or resistance on a larger time frame.

So given these two things, smaller zigs & zags and larger moves between S&R, I trade with the larger S&R as the idea and try to make some ticks on the small zigs & zags by building and reducing my position.


----------



## dlineinvestor

Trembling Hand said:


> Mate I don't worry so much about a hard line on the chart as support because I know that to get from point A to point B on a larger time frame there is going to be many zigs and zags on the shorter time frames to get there. Many of them will push through what looks like tradition S/R on a chart and then come back and push through ones on the other side, that is the market. It is designed to trap the obvious play. And yet it does move to support or resistance on a larger time frame.
> 
> So given these two things, smaller zigs & zags and larger moves between S&R, I trade with the larger S&R as the idea and try to make some ticks on the small zigs & zags by building and reducing my position.




Understood
Larger time frames s/r .. I use 1hr and 15 min s/r to guage my 5 and 1 min trading.
What I need to get under my belt is the process or technique to better know if that "s or r" will break or hold.
Any input on that would be great 
Cheers


----------



## tech/a

> Any input on that would be great




Just a bit of my observations on a 3 min chart.
Looking for this to re test the latest highs which
have been tested tonight.

Click to expand
DAX 3 minute right now.
Long 710 and a sell placed 750
stop at B/E---now.


----------



## CanOz

kid hustlr said:


> anyone on IB got data issues? I've got like 600 lots traded so far in the cash session???
> 
> hahah doesnt open til 6 TGIF




I have no level II on the DAX with IB....


----------



## tech/a

out at 35 saw a familiar face.

Low volume rolling over.


----------



## kid hustlr

tech/a said:


> out at 35 saw a familiar face.
> 
> Low volume rolling over.




saw this on the ftse on my phone couldnt log in quick enough to sell it, think its rolling over


----------



## Jasonm2310

*Trembling Hand *- I can relate to what your saying and I'm only really just starting to get a knack for that zig zag. I believe the markets are extremely dynamic and can be anticipated with fair accuracy when looking at it from human behavioural perspective . In the last three weeks I have picked up two patterns that have amazing success rates. I mean it's so obvious they are just sitting there but everyone seems to be looking for the technically complicated  or guaranteed answer. Get on - ride it - get off, Get on - ride it whilst it's approaching that obvious level everyone is watching - get off, fade it, Retests an area - wants to break through and explore - scalp it, bid/offers start to aggressively defend a price, get on, ride it. It's so hard to explain but it's there for those who are willing to believe and watch. *Dlineinvestor *
You will never truly know if it's going to break or hold but can only *ANTICIPATE* what it's going to do.


----------



## barney

Jasonm2310 said:


> [I have picked up two patterns that have amazing success rates. I mean it's so obvious they are just sitting there but everyone seems to be looking for the technically complicated  or guaranteed answer.




Hi J 2310,   TH is a freak for sure and if/whenrolleyes I ever get to trade consistently it will largely due to his "advice"

M8, if you are able to post up an example of those patterns for us mere mortals to peruse it would be greatly appreciated 

Cheers.


----------



## dlineinvestor

tech/a said:


> Just a bit of my observations on a 3 min chart.
> Looking for this to re test the latest highs which
> have been tested tonight.
> 
> Click to expand
> DAX 3 minute right now.
> Long 710 and a sell placed 750
> stop at B/E---now.
> 
> View attachment 59888



Hi Tech,
Thank's for the post 
50/50, gotcha, safest thing then would be adding as the price moves from the s or r


----------



## pavilion103

Up 42 points tonight.

Could have been much more but I'll happily take that.


----------



## dlineinvestor

Pavilion,

If you got a minute ... 
Can you throw us a chart with how you traded, I'm assuming it was the FTSE ?
Just a few entries, mate would be great.
Cheers


----------



## fiftyeight

Trembling Hand said:


> It is designed to trap the obvious play




Everyone not just TH talks about traps and shake outs like there is one person deliberately taking money off of chumps like me. Surely retail investors are small enough that we are not worth the risk. 

Who is buying in a falling market just to take out a few stops, they have now bought high in a falling market? I more thought maybe it got cheap enough that someone with a different strategy or time frame decided to enter (or profit taking or one of the many reasons why someone might buy), not that someone decided to take out some stops. I

I am not arguing that these do or do not happen as I have fallen in many of these traps.

Such a newb


----------



## pavilion103

dlineinvestor said:


> Pavilion,  If you got a minute ... Can you throw us a chart with how you traded, I'm assuming it was the FTSE ? Just a few entries, mate would be great. Cheers




I'll see how I go tomorrow when I'm home. 
Not a conventional play by me but I'll write up my logic. Not a text book one that I'd show to aspiring traders but I'll post one up if I get time tomorrow.


----------



## dlineinvestor

SPI - ASX200
Into major resistance now see if it holds or makes it back down to prior resistance to become support. (redline)
Bearish wedge ... indication this could happen


----------



## Trembling Hand

dlineinvestor said:


> Understood
> Larger time frames s/r .. I use 1hr and 15 min s/r to guage my 5 and 1 min trading.
> What I need to get under my belt is the process or technique to better know if that "s or r" will break or hold.
> Any input on that would be great
> Cheers




Nah you probably still haven't got it. What was S/R an hour ago may no longer hold, or it may. Actions have consequences. That's the problem with static thinking and a chart example of 'this is how I trade'. The chart I posted a few days ago and the process was completely different to what I did yesterday. If you want an answer to that bit I underlined you will be in for a long and frustrating search. 



fiftyeight said:


> Everyone not just TH talks about traps and shake outs like there is one person deliberately taking money off of chumps like me. Surely retail investors are small enough that we are not worth the risk.







No you misunderstand how large traders accumulate size (and the cunning ones). If you are a 500 lot trader you don't just hit the buy button and smash out for 500 lots into the market then do the opposite to get out. If you move size you have to go for large moves simply because it takes time to get in and get out. Now given that - you have to do a few things. Use that size to maximum advantage, protect yourself from being wrong because you haven't got stops (think about that for a while its important)and take entries and exits when people are spewing orders because that is where the volume is. See the chart that I used the other day for what is happening.

1. You have large volume as its gapped down and kept on going down as people sell into an 'oversold' market that actually has some nice divergence. If you are Mr Big on every push down you hit up get nice fills creating those nice up trust bars.

2. Now this needs some thought. Who would be stupid enough to be supplying large volume into up trust bars to new highs? Its clear someone is covering shorts and new traders are entering break out plays by buying but who would be stupid enough to sell into that?? People with large amount of holdings. Its the perfect time to lighten the load from what you accumulated at 1. What happens next? Panic dies down, demand drops, prices fall back into the old range as the break out dudes take heat and spew orders. Mr big is smiling as he has already booked a good profit on 1/3 of his holdings and his thinking "ok where can I top up?"

3. The nice safe up trend breaks as demand keeps on falling and all the new longs take more heat. Mr Big who has been sitting back and is still bullish as all stink, has a good size from much lower and some room to take on more. As the trend breaks its clear because the volume picks up that people are selling but who would be stupid enough to buy? Someone has to be on the other side. Its Mr big *protecting *his position. Oldest trick in the book. Read Reminiscence of a Stock Operator.  It moves back into the old range, 

4.Supply dramatically dries up. Up she goes to new highs.

5.More high volume trades. Lots of break out trades and panic shorts but who would be stupid enough to sell into that? I mean its new highs dude!- let it run! You know who it is, Mr big getting out and supplying all the volume.


----------



## ThingyMajiggy

What about the one way train days TH, where it's just a big push all day, do you these big players often get prepared for those the days before in the lead up to trend days or are the trend days themselves the days where they are doing their business and need to get in/out, therefore driving it one way? 

So basically we fade big volume bars, the bit that catches me is when I think it's some big volume coming in then the next few bars just keep exploding further and you realise the one you thought earlier was the big boys coming in looks pathetic now


----------



## dlineinvestor

th I'm willing to take the heat for an explanation like that
Cheers brother. 

That would explain the smash up candles just when players get in shorts, big boys covering near turning point. 
Pretty good indicator for a novice that his posi might be in danger.


----------



## CanOz

For those that trade the DAX, retest almost here...more downside but a slow and grinding journey...enjoy!


----------



## pavilion103

CanOz said:


> For those that trade the DAX, retest almost here...more downside but a slow and grinding journey...enjoy!




Expecting price to push up a bit first from this base? Especially after such a huge move.

That's what I'm expecting. Not sure how far it will go. But medium term downside.


----------



## lesm

fiftyeight said:


> Everyone not just TH talks about traps and shake outs like there is one person deliberately taking money off of chumps like me. *Surely retail investors are small enough that we are not worth the risk. *




In simple terms, you and other retail traders are just collateral damage when it comes to a stop sweep. There is nothing that differentiates between you and the larger players. Play the game, experience the pain.

Read TH's response, inclusive of the lead in paragraph and the 5 points, until you really understand what he has described.


----------



## lesm

Trembling Hand said:


> No you misunderstand how large traders accumulate size (and the cunning ones). If you are a 500 lot trader you don't just hit the buy button and smash out for 500 lots into the market then do the opposite to get out. If you move size you have to go for large moves simply because it takes time to get in and get out. Now given that - you have to do a few things. Use that size to maximum advantage, *protect yourself from being wrong because you haven't got stops (think about that for a while its important)and take entries and exits when people are spewing orders because that is where the volume is. *See the chart that I used the other day for what is happening.




TH, no one appears to have picked up on or questioned this one (underlined) yet.


----------



## Wysiwyg

lesm said:


> Read TH's response, inclusive of the lead in paragraph and the 5 points, until you really understand what he has described.



Well the facts are that from point three the price does continue down at times to either test support level or set lower low. Understand that explaining past price movement on a chart is easy.


----------



## pavilion103

As promised....


I wanted to take the entry in the blue (long) but wasn't brave enough after the day before. 

This is exactly what I'd anticipated the day before but it crashed down. I knew it would be turning at some point. Thursday was not the day. Friday was. Friday's action gave a clear indication that a bullish day(s) would likely follow. 

I was short initially and lose a handful of points because my stop wasn't quite at BE. Then, where my short failed around the 85 level, I took a very aggressive long. I felt for 7 points, if it took off, it took off and could be big. 

When price stagnated around the top I knew price would have to come back down and test. I wasn't sure how far back. Taking out the 85 level was unlikely but I've seen it happen, particularly at the start of a decent up move. I took the points off the table.


----------



## pavilion103

A second trade that I took later at night which I didn't mention in here because I was waiting to see how it would play out. 

I was driving home at about 10 or 11 and I saw this. I thought it was worth a chance. 

My thoughts are on the chart. 

Purely a context trade. Reading the context and believing that there was a high probability that price would move up given where it was at.


----------



## dlineinvestor

Very helpful to see your entries and your narration ... nice 2nd entry entering on previous resistance which then acted as support.
TY


----------



## pavilion103

In that second spot I didn't mind whacking on a bigger risk than usual with the intention of letting it go overnight. Given that it had tested that area, I felt it unlikely it would go lower. If it did, I lost 20 points, no biggie. 

My general rule is my low-risk setups, but I have nothing against, in certain spots, getting in with a wide stop if I think the context is good and there is big upside potential. I wouldn't recommend that for those who aren't familiar with the markets. Once it ran, I thought I'd take it. I was content. The plan would have been to leave it overnight and then see if it takes off Monday night. 

With taking larger than usual risks I believe it all has to be relative. The reward needs to be large. And the risk can't be a large portion of your average weekly profit. 


One thing I really wanted to do was to get in in the pre-market on Friday and just have a wide stop right to the bottom. It would have been enormous risk (130 points), so I couldn't justify doing it, but I was very confident that we had made a new low and to get in that close to the bottom would have been gold for a position trade. By the end of Friday I think price had moved up 150 points from that level, stop could have already been to BE and holding 150 points in the black with little chance of being stopped on a re-test to the low. 

If my weekly average profit was 200 points, I may have done it. I believe that there are some spots where this is warranted and if it represents half a week's profits then it is worth the risk for such large upside potential. 

Some may disagree with me, but I felt the night before was a big stopping bar on huge volume. 

If I was only making 20 or 30 points a week then I wouldn't risk over a month's profit on such a move. But if it was half a week's profit then probably.


----------



## lesm

Wysiwyg said:


> Well the facts are that from point three the price does continue down at times to either test support level or set lower low. Understand that explaining past price movement on a chart is easy.




Then, why do some people make trading harder than it really is?

The above is actually meant as a rhetorical question, but everything is easy in hindsight.


----------



## CanOz

Some analysis on the FTSE, FWIW. I reckon we might get a continuation of this short covering rally to test 6521, the volume point of control. If this is rejected then i reckon sellers will return and push the market towards a test of 6000. I think there is a good chance to see a test of 5400 if we take out 6000....and 5750.

Again, i believe we could have a santa rally but i reckon it may be short covering only...

Just a bit of fun from the sidelined trader!


----------



## pavilion103

CanOz said:


> Some analysis on the FTSE, FWIW. I reckon we might get a continuation of this short covering rally to test 6521, the volume point of control. If this is rejected then i reckon sellers will return and push the market towards a test of 6000. I think there is a good chance to see a test of 5400 if we take out 6000....and 5750.  Again, i believe we could have a santa rally but i reckon it may be short covering only...  Just a bit of fun from the sidelined trader!




That's how I see it too.


----------



## skyQuake

pavilion103 said:


> In that second spot I didn't mind whacking on a bigger risk than usual with the intention of letting it go overnight. Given that it had tested that area, I felt it unlikely it would go lower. If it did, I lost 20 points, no biggie.
> 
> My general rule is my low-risk setups, but I have nothing against, in certain spots, getting in with a wide stop if I think the context is good and there is big upside potential. I wouldn't recommend that for those who aren't familiar with the markets. Once it ran, I thought I'd take it. I was content. The plan would have been to leave it overnight and then see if it takes off Monday night.
> 
> With taking larger than usual risks I believe it all has to be relative. The reward needs to be large. And the risk can't be a large portion of your average weekly profit.
> 
> 
> One thing I really wanted to do was to get in in the pre-market on Friday and just have a wide stop right to the bottom. It would have been enormous risk (130 points), so I couldn't justify doing it, but I was very confident that we had made a new low and to get in that close to the bottom would have been gold for a position trade. By the end of Friday I think price had moved up 150 points from that level, stop could have already been to BE and holding 150 points in the black with little chance of being stopped on a re-test to the low.
> 
> If my weekly average profit was 200 points, I may have done it. I believe that there are some spots where this is warranted and if it represents half a week's profits then it is worth the risk for such large upside potential.
> 
> Some may disagree with me, but I felt the night before was a big stopping bar on huge volume.
> 
> If I was only making 20 or 30 points a week then I wouldn't risk over a month's profit on such a move. But if it was half a week's profit then probably.




Was in a similar (but much nicer) dilemma - was lucky enough to be still holding from thurs but wanted to take some off the table while persevering with the bullishness. 
In the end cut out the longs and switched to some Nov calls - in case there's one more leg down towards the end of oct :S


----------



## pavilion103

By the way....

Does anyone trade any commodities or currencies which would also suit my style of trading? I haven't looked into this yet.

I'd be interested to know what is out there and how many dollars per pip/tick?

I'm guessing oil is a popular one? 
What are market open times and when are they most active.

I know it's a general question but I'm just curious!


----------



## CanOz

pavilion103 said:


> By the way....
> 
> Does anyone trade any commodities or currencies which would also suit my style of trading? I haven't looked into this yet.
> 
> I'd be interested to know what is out there and how many dollars per pip/tick?
> 
> I'm guessing oil is a popular one?
> What are market open times and when are they most active.
> 
> I know it's a general question but I'm just curious!




I've had a pretty good go at metals and energy over the last four years. For whats its worth some of the price action might suit your style of trading during the European session when the contracts are trading with a little more liquidity than in the Asian session. Start out with the mini contracts though, until you get some screen time under your belt. There are quite a few stock standard patterns on 1-4 hour time frames that i think you could take advantage of, as you have with the FTSE. I would just go into it with a little less risk and seek out the mini contracts first, being mindful that they are less liquid than the full size contracts during the European session....

There is the crude oil mini QM, Natural gas mini QG, the gold mini YM, Copper mini QC, 

AMP lists them here but a search on IB will give you similar...

The grain complex offers some interesting markets as well, but i would not want to hold over night and make sure with all these markets you get a handle on the news before it comes out, limit up or down is not on my bucket list...

Get a few screens together Pav and have these markets up when you are trading the FTSE. Open book trader now and again to see how much liquidity there is and when...

Cheers,


CanOz


----------



## CanOz

The ES (S&P500 mini futures) appears to be in a short covering rally, expect a retest of 1960...if this fails to attract buyers then a further continuation could occur...


----------



## CanOz

Its quite possible the Russel2000 small cap index futures mini might see some short covering up to test 1130 this week. Again, if this runs out of steam and no new buyers are found there, then we can expect the decline to continue and test the recent low at 1040, in my view.


----------



## CanOz

I reckon we might see the HSI test 22000 again soon, but 23500 needs to cap prices for now...If we get back into the bracket between 22500 and 22000 then we'll need to find buyers to stay bullish in the current channel. Bearish below 22000.


----------



## avion

> ...protect yourself from being wrong because you *haven't* got stops (think about that for a while its important)and take entries and exits when people are spewing orders because that is where the volume is...







lesm said:


> TH, no one appears to have picked up on or questioned this one (underlined) yet.




Yeah, i do not understand this either, to protect oneself you use stops but you seem to be indicating protect yourself by NOT having stops  (maybe i am just reading this wrong... should it read: protect yourself by using stops...)


----------



## tech/a

avion said:


> Yeah, i do not understand this either, to protect oneself you use stops but you seem to be indicating protect yourself by NOT having stops  (maybe i am just reading this wrong... should it read: protect yourself by using stops...)




One of the genitive of being big.
Imaging you have enough capital to absorb selling which pushes your position against you.
Once that's absorbed there is no resistance to buyers. Price continues in your favor.
Unless you can do this it's wise to have stops.

When your trading size you trade very differently to us mortals.


----------



## avion

tech/a said:


> When your trading size you trade very differently to us mortals.




Thanks Tech, yes i am aware there are guys big enough to trade without using stops (including TH) but i thought this advice and board in general is geared more towards small guys that do trade with stops in place. Besides i recall TH scatter charts and he seem to always get out in time ie use stops...


----------



## CanOz

avion said:


> Thanks Tech, yes i am aware there are guys big enough to trade without using stops (including TH) but i thought this advice and board in general is geared more towards small guys that do trade with stops in place. Besides i recall TH scatter charts and he seem to always get out in time ie use stops...




I'm guessing he doesnt use hard stops, he gets out when he knows hes wrong but either hitting at market or getting a limit order in on the Dom....if he is in with size then he's going to try and unwind it a bit  but  since  he  scales in hes  not  likely under pressure with size in an  area where  he could  be wrong....that often.


----------



## keithj

Trembling Hand said:


> ........ *If you are a 500 lot trader you* don't just hit the buy button and smash out for 500 lots into the market then do the opposite to get out. If you move size you have to go for large moves simply because it takes time to get in and get out. Now given that - you have to do a few things. Use that size to maximum advantage, protect yourself from being wrong because *you haven't got stops* (think about that for a while its important)and take entries and exits when people are spewing orders because that is where the volume is. See the chart that I used the other day for what is happening.



TH is talking about the big boys who move markets & can't/don't use stops... it's an invaluable illustration of how us lesser mortals need to be thinking when we enter, exit & place our stops.


----------



## avion

I agree, that was my understanding on how TH trades or any big guy with size to match but how do we incorporate this advice for one or two contracts. I think the answer may be in when the small guys (me) are spewing orders, anyway let's wait for his input... You up yet TH?:bananasmi


----------



## lesm

avion said:


> Yeah, i do not understand this either, to protect oneself you use stops but you seem to be indicating protect yourself by NOT having stops  (maybe i am just reading this wrong... should it read: protect yourself by using stops...)




The original quote is correct. You are not misreading it.

I quoted it separately and deliberately to see what kind of questions or discussions it raised.


----------



## tech/a

> how do we incorporate this advice for one or two contracts




Understand what the big guys are likely to be doing (How they will be trading) and trade accordingly with our 1 or more lots.

Often (and I was one of those) we get caught thinking small while the bigger picture is one with our direction.

The big volume and range needs an answer to the question---what is it doing---is it strength or weakness ----is it sustained selling or sustained buying---is it adjusting position size or more buying or exiting?


----------



## avion

Trembling Hand said:


>






tech/a said:


> The Vid is cryptic!






Trembling Hand said:


> You obviously haven't seen breaking bad?!






In Breaking Bad the gangsters thought the small piece seen being thrown was drug (ice) and similar in appearance, when in fact was explosive. So the point is: It's not what it seems or appears to be...


----------



## avion

tech/a said:


> Understand what the big guys are likely to be doing (How they will be trading) and trade accordingly with our 1 or more lots.
> 
> Often (and I was one of those) we get caught thinking small while the bigger picture is one with our direction.
> 
> The big volume and range needs an answer to the question---what is it doing---is it strength or weakness ----is it sustained selling or sustained buying---is it adjusting position size or more buying or exiting?


----------



## tech/a

avion said:


> In Breaking Bad the gangsters thought the small piece seen being thrown was drug (ice) and similar in appearance, when in fact was explosive. So the point is: It's not what it seems or appears to be...




Thanks.
Life tends to be like that!


----------



## Trembling Hand

avion said:


> Thanks Tech, yes i am aware there are guys big enough to trade without using stops (including TH) but i thought this advice and board in general is geared more towards small guys that do trade with stops in place. Besides i recall TH scatter charts and he seem to always get out in time ie use stops...




Arrrh!I wasn't say don't trade with stops I was just trying to illustrate how those that have more ammo than the USS Enterprise trade and therefore move the market. If you are holding 500 lots and it breaks against you 10 ticks what are you going to do? Spew the order up like a scared Muppet and smash the market against yourself another 50 ticks? No F'n way. Or are you going to wait until its stretched and throw another 50-100 lot against the latest move and push it back into the range? Thats why breaks on volume are not always what they seem.

That is why there is volume at the edge of ranges, some are spewing orders for a loss, some are entering on momentum in the same direction and late, others are using that to absorb the move against them and we the little guys should be following them.


----------



## avion

Don't be upset TH, sometimes it takes time to digest what are you trying to communicate... Not everybody has your IQ.

So, what's in store today... are you feeling bullish?


----------



## Trembling Hand

avion said:


> Don't be upset TH, sometimes it takes time to digest what are you trying to communicate... Not everybody has your IQ.
> 
> So, what's in store today... are you feeling bullish?




I haven't got much of an idea yet. Not really bullish though. And tomorrow is a big news day for China so no doubt what ever it does today is a trap for tomorrow.


----------



## dlineinvestor

avion said:


> Not everybody has your IQ




Nothing to do with IQ .. Experience "yes
Entries need to have an edge if you set entry orders where trapped traders are going to exit that is your edge.
EG I did it today and it worked, set short orders where I thought longs were going to exit .... I never use to think like this before ..... that's what I took from his posts.


----------



## dlineinvestor

Where I think LONGS will exit next


----------



## tech/a

dlineinvestor said:


> Where I think LONGS will exit next




Other than the small consolidation
What else indicates that this is where longs will or are exiting?


----------



## dlineinvestor

Tech
I see a few other reasons  as outlined on chart, but feel free to add anything I've missed.
I can't say they "will but "if they do I'll be in short on a stop order ... 
I'm not short atm.
Cheers


----------



## tech/a

Just interested in your analysis.


----------



## payday

dlineinvestor said:


> Tech
> I see a few other reasons  as outlined on chart, but feel free to add anything I've missed.
> I can't say they "will but "if they do I'll be in short on a stop order ...
> I'm not short atm.
> Cheers




My 2 cents based on your chart is this : I see lot's of tails on that hour chart around where you have set your stop short entry order. To me, I see this as prime buying territory - not shorting. I look for those tails as clues as to where the buyers are lurking. I would be expecting a pinnochio lower through that line you have drawn, and then a reversal from there back through that line you have drawn. My logic is simple - traders see that broken line - enter short, buyers pick it up and squeeze the shorts as price breaks back into that range. All of a sudden, the shorters are losing money, they add to the order flow producing a big squeeze up. Of course, all this is subject to change as price bars progress. The scenario I have described is what I naturally would like to occur. I like those "false break" setups. They are my favourite to trade. But, conversely, if I see the bears gathering strength, as would be indicated by bearish bars and buyers no longer stepping up, then I would change my mind and join the crowd and go short. My way of thinking is not set in stone. It changes depending on that market conditions and how I am reading the price action bar by bar by boring bar


----------



## Trembling Hand

dlineinvestor said:


> Tech
> I see a few other reasons  as outlined on chart, but feel free to add anything I've missed.
> I can't say they "will but "if they do I'll be in short on a stop order ...
> I'm not short atm.
> Cheers




That is a dubious Bearish wedge is it not?


----------



## tech/a

Trembling Hand said:


> That is a dubious Bearish wedge is it not?




Is likely to be a Chanel sometime this week.

In general I don't disagree with the analysis.


----------



## Trembling Hand

tech/a said:


> Is likely to be a Chanel sometime this week.
> 
> In general I don't disagree with the analysis.




Yeah far enough. I just never like those CFD charts. They for some reason just never look right. Especially when going out to the SYCOM session. But each person sees different stuff I guess.


----------



## dlineinvestor

Tech,
If you don't mind commenting

On average ...  % wise.

After setting SL to BE, how many times does price action come back to your SL, to close the trade ?

Hoping to use your experience to see if it is a good policy for me.

Cheers


----------



## tech/a

If I'm impatient and go looking for trades rather than have them scream take this --- idiot!!

Often--- frustratingly often!

But each time it hones my skills and without a great deal of financial damage.
But as said before when we get it right it doesn't come back!


----------



## pavilion103

Tried to go long on open. Down 14 points overall from that.

Now short from 72. No idea where this will go. I thought 40. Now it's below maybe 00.


----------



## fiftyeight

My time in exile seems to have proved a success, for now. I missed my short by a few measly points twice, but have n gone on tilt and sold at market "just" to get in.

But sooooo many points missed

Still deciphering you reply TH. I have a few thoughts but ill ponder them over my holiday and hopefully arrive at an answer my self.


----------



## CanOz

Trembling Hand said:


> That is a dubious Bearish wedge is it not?




Its a wedge, its channel, no its a wedge...

I like when wedges break really convincingly, this is a dribble more than a spurt...


----------



## pavilion103

I'm out for 50 points. I only had the one contract on tonight. 

Reasons for exit. . 

1. I'm going to bed and don't want to leave it overnight. We aren't smashing down so 50 points is great for me. 

2. 50 points is in the zone of taking profit when not in a huge trending market. 



There was no technical reason for me to sell. I saw some potential support at 6240 which is pushed through. The next level I see is 6200. I was actually hoping price would smash down at some point on big volume to give me an obvious exit but not to be. It may happen after I go to bed. 

Weird action. Just grinding lower. 

Up 35 for the night then taking into consideration my earlier losses.


----------



## pavilion103

My entry....

I missed the initial short at 6280 because I was thinking long. 


I jumped in at 6772 and simply put a stop at the high 20 or so points above. I could tell at that stage that it was heading down and that I'd be reasonably safe taking the trade the way I did.


----------



## pavilion103

Looks like it turned around near that low just above the 6200 level.

I contemplated putting on a long at 6220 to leave overnight but didn't want to risk 13 points to where the stop would have been.

Could have been worth holding that.


----------



## dlineinvestor

CanOz said:


> I like when wedges break really convincingly, this is a dribble more than a spurt...




ASX200 Trade:
For this very reason I was convinced that my target (5269) was not going to happen.
but 10 points in my bag after all 

Negatives of this trade :

I got stopped in after hours when it was a 5 point spread ... 
It went against me immediately ... 
Price action was meagre, and not bearish at the break of that consolidation area ...  ... we did have a leg down but clearly for now markets are making higher lows / highs


----------



## fiftyeight

Had the day today to watch the SPI today and I am attempting to watch the action and analyse as TH did the other day.

One of the problems I am having is where to start. I have no idea if the initial volume is the big boys accumulating or taking profit from previous entries, maybe both haha


----------



## Trembling Hand

fiftyeight said:


> Had the day today to watch the SPI today and I am attempting to watch the action and analyse as TH did the other day.
> 
> One of the problems I am having is where to start. I have no idea if the initial volume is the big boys accumulating or taking profit from previous entries, maybe both haha




What are you expecting today? What is the main theme you reckon will be played out?


----------



## dlineinvestor

fiftyeight said:


> Had the day today to watch the SPI today and I am attempting to watch the action and analyse as TH did the other day.
> 
> One of the problems I am having is where to start. I have no idea if the initial volume is the big boys accumulating or taking profit from previous entries, maybe both haha




In response to your "where to start"
Try using and buying the break of any trendlines, this is a good start and has a high probability for at least a scalp on lesser time frames .... if not a nice swing on higher time frames. Forget everything else .... Just make sure your money management is right first ! or paper trade it etc


----------



## fiftyeight

Running into the resistance at 5325-5350, a strong past few days and a small move up last night. I would expect some profit taking from the longs and possibly some new short entries looking for a good spot to enter with the negative sentiment at the moment.

So, a negative day but with no real range as the longs will be looking for max profit and the new shorts will be hesitant until there is some real direction


----------



## fiftyeight

dlineinvestor said:


> In response to your "where to start"
> Try using and buying the break of any trendlines, this is a good start and has a high probability for at least a scalp on lesser time frames .... if not a nice swing on higher time frames. Forget everything else .... Just make sure your money management is right first ! or paper trade it etc




Cheers DL, just watching today. I meant "where to start" with my analysis, as you need to base everything else off of some starting point. I think


----------



## Trembling Hand

dlineinvestor said:


> In response to your "where to start"
> Try using and buying the break of any trendlines, this is a good start and has a high probability for at least a scalp on lesser time frames .... if not a nice swing on higher time frames. Forget everything else .... Just make sure your money management is right first ! or paper trade it etc




This is classic T/A 101 blah blah that doesn't work. Where is the context of what we will actually have today? 





fiftyeight said:


> Running into the resistance at 5325-5350, a strong past few days and a small move up last night. I would expect some profit taking from the longs and possibly some new short entries looking for a good spot to enter with the negative sentiment at the moment.
> 
> So, a negative day but with no real range as the longs will be looking for max profit and the new shorts will be hesitant until there is some real direction




Well I can tell you that just about everyone that provides the volume and therefore where the market will be going is waiting for 1:00 pm today. Maybe start there.


----------



## avion

Gut feel says go long, head says, economy sucks go short...


----------



## fiftyeight

Trembling Hand said:


> Well I can tell you that just about everyone that provides the volume and therefore where the market will be going is waiting for 1:00 pm today. Maybe start there.





Haha, that would explain the nothing day they. Cheers


----------



## dlineinvestor

fiftyeight said:


> Cheers DL, just watching today. I meant "where to start" with my analysis, as you need to base everything else off of some starting point. I think



Ok thought you meant about trading aspect...np


----------



## dlineinvestor

Trembling Hand said:


> This is classic T/A 101 blah blah that doesn't work. Where is the context of what we will actually have today?



Yeah sure if the question was clear I wod have answered differently.
Trendlines "do work ! Especially on longer time frames. As I mentioned good enough for a scalp on shorter time frames.
Oh look 12:45 t line break ! Even before the announcement, long for a 5 scalp out.
Alot of ppl would disagree with you including me that tlines are mumbo jumbo


----------



## >Apocalypto<

Trembling Hand said:


> ...




Nice action on the HSI today caught two buys and a sell... but tried to sell and buy it on open so still down 4 pts. 

very nice moves.


----------



## >Apocalypto<

dlineinvestor said:


> Yeah sure if the question was clear I wod have answered differently.
> Trendlines "do work ! Especially on longer time frames. As I mentioned good enough for a scalp on shorter time frames.
> Oh look 12:45 t line break ! Even before the announcement, long for a 5 scalp out.
> Alot of ppl would disagree with you including me that tlines are mumbo jumbo




for me the action behind the trend break is more important then the trend break its self. I used to go by trend breaks solely with very 50/50 hits... now i try to really think about the set up of price before the break to give the break more legitimacy. goes for momentum ideas as well.

still work in progress for me. what action tells you a move might be a move or wont be a move. before the signal


----------



## Trembling Hand

>Apocalypto< said:


> Nice action on the HSI today caught two buys and a sell... but tried to sell and buy it on open so still down 4 pts.
> 
> very nice moves.




Yeah she is always a wild ride come October on the HSI. 100 points in a few minutes is almost getting boring. :22_yikes:


----------



## >Apocalypto<

Trembling Hand said:


> Yeah she is always a wild ride come October on the HSI. 100 points in a few minutes is almost getting boring. :22_yikes:




just learned the hard way not to have tight stops... on the current move down. 

re entered worked out well. i can see why you trade it TH, when it gets going it really runs.


----------



## pavilion103

Made 20 on the initial drop.

Reversed got a long at 6209.

Single contract


----------



## pavilion103

Looks very bullish.

The push up following last week's base?

Not sure what to do with the one contract! Whether it's worth holding this into the night.


----------



## pavilion103

Out at 6302.

That's about 90 points for that contract.

Simply exited because such large open profit and only trading 1 contract. Exited on a little push up.

If I had a second I'd hold for sure!


----------



## pavilion103

Argh I knew it. 
Annoying!

This is not the market to be conservative in. 

Should have taken 2. No idea why I didn't.

Great opportunities at the moment!


----------



## fiftyeight

90 points is better than sitting on a plane and missing everything 

SPI today hmmmm. Still at that 5350ish range, on no big volume over the past 2 days. Will today be the day volume come back? Will that be higher or lower or will it just range?

My gut say a sideways day, slightly bearish but..... This is going to a long process haha


----------



## fiftyeight

Short at 3561, with my slightly bearish bias, and it was in a well defined range on the 1 min chart. I sold at the top of the range with a tight stop as something I am trying out from previous posts


----------



## pavilion103

Thinking a long around the 30 area.

I'm not at the screen though.


----------



## fiftyeight

I have that area marked out on my chart as well


----------



## fiftyeight

Out for a small profit, work still needed on exits


----------



## pavilion103

Resistance around 6390 and just below which has been tested multiple times in the last 2 weeks. 

I wonder if this is heading down before it's heading up.


----------



## dlineinvestor

Futures, stocks or forex, I keep seeing this "pattern in all time frames. It's worth waiting for and the break is usually 
clean !
Any of you use it ? The target is usual more than the equal but drop one contract at the equal and let the other run.  Low risk at the retest with stop above cheers


----------



## pavilion103

Down 25.

Price action choppy.

Poor trading too. Should have lost 10.


----------



## barney

barney said:


> My gut feel would be any moves greater than 10% would be an indication to start looking for Short entries on any bounces cause they may be dead cats  .... particularly if the next up move is sharp and into new highs (red flag!)  If it just grinds upwards slowly its likely heading back into a trading range.




History repeats (SPI).  

10.5% Down in 28 Days  (Shorting = high risk)

6% reversal in 9 Days

Price action around the "Stars" will be interesting .....


----------



## pavilion103

BE on Friday.

Not too excited. Waiting for consolidation and then to see where it goes next.

I won't be on Mon or Tues the next 4 weeks because the new open time clashes with my course.


----------



## pavilion103

A bit slow going.... 

I'm about 20 up for the week. 


Any thoughts on the FTSE. A few narrow range days. Struggling to move up. 

I'm wondering if it is struggling and will come off. I don't want to pre-empt anything. Last night I was looking for longs. Not sure if I should look for shorts tonight or if it's too pre-emptive. Last night's long follow through wasnt convncing.


----------



## tech/a

pavilion103 said:


> A bit slow going....
> 
> I'm about 20 up for the week.
> 
> 
> Any thoughts on the FTSE. A few narrow range days. Struggling to move up.
> 
> I'm wondering if it is struggling and will come off. I don't want to pre-empt anything. Last night I was looking for longs. Not sure if I should look for shorts tonight or if it's too pre-emptive. Last night's long follow through wasnt convncing.




PAV

My view is you'll see it happening if watching a 1-3 min chart/s.
You'll know the areas to watch.
Retests for best entries. When it takes off it will take of hard and fast---certainly the DAX does and the FTSE either follows or leads.


----------



## pavilion103

tech/a said:


> PAV  My view is you'll see it happening if watching a 1-3 min chart/s. You'll know the areas to watch. Retests for best entries. When it takes off it will take of hard and fast---certainly the DAX does and the FTSE either follows or leads.




Are you thinking along similar lines?

The last 2 bars make me want to look for a test of a resistance area and short.

But apart from that it is still in an uptrend and hasn't exactly looked like a top.

I'm thinking of drawing a box around the last few bars and taking it from there.


----------



## pavilion103

Looking at the longer term charts it doesn't look particularly bearish. 
Furthermore, the low recently looks convincing and I'm not sure if it still needs to move up more possibly. 

However on a smaller time frame it looks like possibly some weakness in the past few days. 
Yesterday is a wierd one. It almost looks like a trap pushing above and then not going on with it. 
Tonight will be interesting. 

SPI also looking like the upward momentum is dying. 
A short of 5410, with stop 5480 looks like a micro setup (although big risk of 70 points). 


Interesting.......


----------



## pavilion103

Lucky not to get taken out on the second bar. 

I expect 6420 to act as support.


----------



## pavilion103

Could have taken a low below the second bar to add to the first contract but wasn't confident enough to. Probably should have as it signaled a lot of weakness after the second bar pushed up and failed.

I don't know which direction it will go from here. 
6420 was market out on my chart at the start of the day. 
But I'm not exiting with just the one.


----------



## pavilion103

Look at that. The second area I marked as support here.


----------



## >Apocalypto<

I don't watch the news but anyone know what got the sellers jumping? 

was a interesting time  started with looking for longs then scrambling into sells.


----------



## pavilion103

Interesting if this now follows through or not. It could be an important point.


----------



## skyQuake

pavilion103 said:


> Interesting if this now follows through or not. It could be an important point.




Reckon that might be the low. A while ago I when i played around in the ftse seriously I noticed that 100pt daily range tended to cap moves. It was difficult to test because it had to exclude US open and the subsequent highs/lows that followed.


----------



## >Apocalypto<

i have a short open on the US2000 cfd of the Russel i believe. it's a 4 hour trade, looking to leave it run. been a nice run up looking for a bit more follow on.


----------



## barney

Interesting .....DAX conformity ........ 0.5 % retracements.


----------



## pavilion103

Decided to exit 6380.

72 points.

Cost myself about the same on Monday letting it run back up to BE.

Probably need a more decisive uptrend break to hold on.


----------



## pavilion103

That hurts. Long at 6388.5

Stopped by a point overnight !


----------



## Jasonm2310

Is anyone on the 6J move. Momentum is flowing!!


----------



## barney

Jasonm2310 said:


> Is anyone on the 6J move. Momentum is flowing!!




Thanks for the heads up  ..... I stole a few pips off the GBP/JPY after I read your post


----------



## fiftyeight

On holidays at the moment so have been mostly absent, but I have caught up on some reading. Obviously I have not been watching markets long but the few ideas I have been thinking about have been fully (and much better than ill ever be able to do) investigated and tested  I did expect this but not to find it so quickly 

This edge thing people talk about appears to be mirage. The more I learn the further it moves away


----------



## pavilion103

Isn't an edge just something raft gives you positive expectancy?


----------



## tech/a

When you see opportunity when others don't AND you take advantage of it
You *HAVE AN EDGE.*

Happens in all areas of life from trading to property to business to finding a partner-----endless


----------



## minwa

tech/a said:


> When you see opportunity when others *don't* AND you take advantage of it
> You *HAVE AN EDGE.*
> 
> Happens in all areas of life from trading to property to business to finding a partner-----endless




How would you define "others" in trading ? Simply the other 51% or more of participants ?


----------



## tech/a

minwa said:


> How would you define "others" in trading ? Simply the other 51% or more of participants ?




Those who don't see the opportunity you see.
It maybe a pattern
A volume and Pattern combination.
It maybe a news item you saw.
Others could be Every participant or a couple.
You may want as many "others" to see what you see.
Even if in a slightly different way. Taking advantage of momentum.
Bull markets do that.
So do GFC's


----------



## Jens

dlineinvestor said:


> Futures, stocks or forex, I keep seeing this "pattern in all time frames. It's worth waiting for and the break is usually
> clean !
> Any of you use it ? The target is usual more than the equal but drop one contract at the equal and let the other run.  Low risk at the retest with stop above cheers




Yes, it does happen a lot. But, there are also a lot of false breaks. By the time the breakout is clearly confirmed, I find it is too late to get in....according to my analysis.


----------



## Jasonm2310

JENS - Why not jump on as it's approaching a level to test or break?


----------



## pavilion103

Short 6522 from last night.
Hoping it comes off a bit here.


----------



## tech/a

Facial recognition.


----------



## pavilion103

Yes. I got out when it started to push-up.
It had to take off immediately for me to hold.

Nice chart.


----------



## tech/a

First time trading DAX in a week.
Got this one --- now waiting. 
Missed the immediate lower high
For short.
Taking T/Hs advice and looking for better entries
before breakouts for less risk.
This pattern changing to a Bearish triangle.
Not tight and a bit messy.





These strong reversals are my favorite pattern at 
Clear S or R.


----------



## ThingyMajiggy

tech/a said:


> Facial recognition.
> 
> 
> View attachment 60132




what face do you see?

EDIT: Oops, you just beat me to it  nevermind


----------



## tech/a

ThingyMajiggy said:


> what face do you see?
> 
> EDIT: Oops, you just beat me to it  nevermind




Still Waiting.
I like patterns to develop quickly and get going in a direction quickly.
Iv found waiting for something to happen and attempting to pre empt
is not profitable.
better to leave it. Thats where I am now with the DAX tonight so time
to leave.

Another face!


----------



## pavilion103

Short x 3 FTSE.

Holding one on SPI from yesterday still.

Fingers crossed.


----------



## pavilion103

Bloody missed out on DAX. Went to submit order at 9290. Not enough money left in my account. Dammit!!!! 

I think this could be a big point on the daily so loading up a bit. Need to manage risk still and just put myself in the position to benefit if it does come off.


----------



## CanOz

tech/a said:


> Still Waiting.
> I like patterns to develop quickly and get going in a direction quickly.
> Iv found waiting for something to happen and attempting to pre empt
> is not profitable.
> better to leave it. Thats where I am now with the DAX tonight so time
> to leave.
> 
> Another face!




If 9220 goes the gap might get filled...


----------



## tech/a

Missed it
Watching TV

Hope you guys do well.
Great move!


----------



## pavilion103

tech/a said:


> Missed it Watching TV  Hope you guys do well. Great move!




That chart you posted gave me confidence to hit it hard. Nice post. Support and resistance so clearly outlined on that chart. Both DAX and FTSE looked like great opportunities. 

If this goes below 6430-40 here it could be good.


----------



## skyQuake

Nice call gents. Here's to new lows!


----------



## CanOz

The Dax rejected 9212 in good fashion...thinking long.


----------



## dlineinvestor

Jens said:


> Yes, it does happen a lot. But, there are also a lot of false breaks. By the time the breakout is clearly confirmed, I find it is too late to get in....according to my analysis.




It's a trading setup no guarantee's "jasonnm2310 has the right idea 
The main point is the target " 
Nice trade "tech


----------



## pavilion103

Annoying it didn't keep moving!
I took 80 points and will look for reentries tonight if it looks weak.


----------



## tech/a

Just a follow up on last night looking forward a little










One of my favorite setups. Look for at support 
or resistance test.


----------



## tech/a

Was true to form again last night


----------



## CanOz

CanOz said:


> The Dax rejected 9212 in good fashion...thinking long.




i guess it was the gap...


----------



## CanOz

booo yah....what a jobs report


----------



## Wysiwyg

CanOz said:


> booo yah....what a jobs report



Tell me CanOz do you think this market is mainly credit fueled and bound for a major sobering correction?


----------



## CanOz

Wysiwyg said:


> Tell me CanOz do you think this market is mainly credit fueled and bound for a major sobering correction?




lol...Don't plan on speculating on that..just managing short term risk to reward...whenever i get the time to do that!


----------



## pavilion103

Charts look very interesting to me. Not sure if others see it the same. 

SPI looks like a little false break possibly, which could be followed by a fall. 

DAX looks weakish last few bars. 

FTSE struggling up wit no real conviction. Looking to short this week. 


DOW needs to pause/correct soon. This has been a sharp rise. 


I'm not sure what will happen but this looks like the place for a high probability short. 


What do others think?


----------



## pavilion103

Short SPI 5546 this morning.


----------



## dlineinvestor

pavilion103 said:


> Short SPI 5546 this morning.




I see it too (on charts)
SPI short on retest at 48
10:35
closed 21
13:55


----------



## pavilion103

dlineinvestor said:


> I see it too (on charts) SPI short on retest at 48 10:35 closed 21 13:55




If I wasn't looking for a position trade then 21 would have been my exact exit too.


----------



## pavilion103

pavilion103 said:


> If I wasn't looking for a position trade then 21 would have been my exact exit too.




An interesting one. Still moving for now.


----------



## pavilion103

It doesn't seem like there is a whole lot of interest in here at the moment, but I'll post because I think this is a good place for a short on the daily. 

2 contracts. 1 at each entry on the chart. 

If this goes lower will be a tough one to manage. 
Some support around 6560 (a little), then more significant at 6540. 

Not sure if it's worth holding both overnight if it moves lower, or to take one off. 

Will be interesting to see if this pushes down from here or not.


----------



## pavilion103

SPI trade shown from the daily chart. 

At a crucial point here.


----------



## pavilion103

Out FTSE BE


----------



## dlineinvestor

pavilion103 said:


> Short SPI 5546 this morning.




Hi buddy, did you get stopped on this one ? b/e or partial profits ?
I see from your chart you re-entered SPI short "5525 ish ?" 

+1 for re-entering short again, the markets have a tendancy to make you doubt what you initially thought was going to happen. "The ultimate mind game"


----------



## pavilion103

dlineinvestor said:


> Hi buddy, did you get stopped on this one ? b/e or partial profits ? I see from your chart you re-entered SPI short "5525 ish ?"  +1 for re-entering short again, the markets have a tendancy to make you doubt what you initially thought was going to happen. "The ultimate mind game"




BE on that one.

It is rounding under previous resistance.
Looks bearish to me. 
Thought it is worth the risk of getting back on.

To me this looks good for a short. Have to hold my nerve now. 

Usually takes a few attempts to get on a larger move. 

Just trying to put myself in position if it does fall sharply. I think it's a high probability area.


----------



## fiftyeight

Still very interested in this thread, and Techs post was great. Just been super busy lately since I got back from Holidays.

I also had a 'feeling' that it was looking toppy when I got back and started looking for shorts.

Caught one earlier in the week but covered and counted the , wish I had of let it run Got on to this one though and will let it run its course. 

After accidentally holding over the weekend previously I am cautious of doing it again, any thoughts if this trade is still alive?


----------



## fiftyeight

Shoulda, Coulda, Woulda.

So after my post last night expressing my hesitation of holding over the weekend I decided that if there was a spot to cover today I will and then start again on Monday.

Managed to watch the open, heading down  and then I get called in to a pointless meeting that lasted waaaaay too long. When I finally had a chance to check, it had bounced back and was still moving against me 

The only possible conclusion I can make is that it is time to tell the boss what I think of him


----------



## >Apocalypto<

very good week turned into a real blow out yesterday.no idea why just horrible. (might be my cold) ruined a very decent week in 12 hours. mind wasn't there did everything you shouldn't do. 

good thing weeks over... new one to start.


----------



## avion

fiftyeight said:


> Shoulda, Coulda, Woulda.
> 
> 
> The only possible conclusion I can make is that it is time to tell the boss what I think of him





...i am in the same boat 58. It's just matter of time...


----------



## pavilion103

I've been seeing what looks like a top forming for a couple of weeks. 

SPI looks like it's rounded. 
DAX looks heavy. 
FTSE hasn't formed yet although may do so this week. 
DOW looks overextended. 

Just how I'm seeing it right now. 

With study commitments I won't be on FTSE next two nights unfortunately given it could be a crucial time. We will see. 

I've taken a second contract on the SPI this morning 6484. Stop around BE now. 
Original contract was last week at 6530ish I think. 

I'm looking to hold. 

If I'm wrong about the top I'll be giving back a bit!


----------



## dlineinvestor

pavilion103 said:


> I've been seeing what looks like a top forming for a couple of weeks.
> 
> SPI looks like it's rounded.
> DAX looks heavy.
> FTSE hasn't formed yet although may do so this week.
> DOW looks overextended.
> 
> Just how I'm seeing it right now.
> 
> With study commitments I won't be on FTSE next two nights unfortunately given it could be a crucial time. We will see.
> 
> I've taken a second contract on the SPI this morning 6484. Stop around BE now.
> Original contract was last week at 6530ish I think.
> 
> I'm looking to hold.
> 
> If I'm wrong about the top I'll be giving back a bit!




Well done on you positions, bit of a misprint on your entry price 
I understand your looking to hold, but why not use "loose trailing stops.
Something better than nothing is it not ? I've heard this is a pull back into higher prices, if this is the case then you'd only be half wrong, just a thought cheers
http://video.cnbc.com/gallery/?video=3000330302


----------



## pavilion103

dlineinvestor said:


> Well done on you positions, bit of a misprint on your entry price
> I understand your looking to hold, but why not use "loose trailing stops.
> Something better than nothing is it not ? I've heard this is a pull back into higher prices, if this is the case then you'd only be half wrong, just a thought cheers
> http://video.cnbc.com/gallery/?video=3000330302




For me, I think there are high probabiltiy areas where holding makes sense. This looks like one of them. If it continues to move I will look at where to trail along the way. But if taking the longer time frame then you need the wide stop to allow for volatiltiy, while also putting profits at risk. 

The key for me is to be making consistent profits so that during these times if I want to hold them and risk giving them back it's not a huge deal. If this wasn't at a top I would have trailed today to take off 40 points. 

RE the video. I don't pay too much attention to that sort of stuff. Having said that, even if the DOW was to continue to push up in coming months, I still see the need for some form of correction, no matter how shallow in the immediate term. It is very extended now. I noticed DOW futures are down 88 points at present too. Friday's bar looks like no demand to me also. 

Usual rule is let one run if I think it's moving and take one off for around 40 here. 

The other reason I am more inclined to hold is because I can't get on the FTSE the next 2 nights. If I could I'd close out of a SPI contract now. Because I think we are at a critical point and I can't get on the FTSE the SPI is my only vehicle for capitalising. 

I am well aware of the risks however. We will see how it goes.


----------



## dlineinvestor

Fair enough, nice selling pressure today for your positions, re the vid its just an indication from one perspective ... eod trade what you see.
Lets see if the 50% level will hold, critical indeed.


----------



## >Apocalypto<

after Friday back to sim for a little while. real damage was done on FX.

Have opened a SIM acc with FXCM using Ninja Trader... first time i have used NT for actual trading. but enjoying having it back. 

anyone know how to turn off or delete the trade references printed on the chart? during and after a position?


----------



## >Apocalypto<

>Apocalypto< said:


> anyone know how to turn off or delete the trade references printed on the chart? during and after a position?




worked it out.


----------



## pavilion103

Anyone getting FTSE chart on IB?


----------



## kid hustlr

yes


----------



## fiftyeight

Nope, no charts here either


----------



## fiftyeight

Still no charts, anyone else having issues?


----------



## pavilion103

I hope they are up soon.

No historic data as a new exchange


----------



## pavilion103

One SPI exited for 45.

FTSE charts working.


----------



## >Apocalypto<

Back on the horse last night.

dropped all the previous ideas and just went back to trading price. looking for points i thought it showed a trend change or a fail. 

5/5 but, the DAX was very clean last night. still no 100% on this tip tap trading i am doing. don't have the stomach for what Pav does. so will continue on with looking for price set ups. still got to hold a little longer on most.


----------



## pavilion103

Darn it. It's moving down still. Should have followed my gut! 

At least still 1 contract in play.


----------



## CanOz

How did the launch of the Shanghai Stock Connect affect the related markets? Any opportunities from this?


----------



## skyQuake

CanOz said:


> How did the launch of the Shanghai Stock Connect affect the related markets? Any opportunities from this?




For northbound, 55% of daily quota was done on the open! Saw some double digit gains on the high ADV stocks (which faded over the day).
Don't think it affected the market much as most of Asia was down sharply


----------



## pavilion103

Exited 2nd SPI contract for 100 points.

Global markets not showing any weakness yet. Too much of a gamble to hold now. I got in expecting other markets to correct to the downside. Hasn't happened.


----------



## CanOz

skyQuake said:


> For northbound, 55% of daily quota was done on the open! Saw some double digit gains on the high ADV stocks (which faded over the day).
> Don't think it affected the market much as most of Asia was down sharply




Wow, i also heard they limited out, hit the daily max?


----------



## tech/a

CanOz said:


> Wow, i also heard they limited out, hit the daily max?




Speaking of Lock limit.

Radge tells some horror stories of Exchanges left lock limit over the years.


----------



## pavilion103

pavilion103 said:


> Exited 2nd SPI contract for 100 points.  Global markets not showing any weakness yet. Too much of a gamble to hold now. I got in expecting other markets to correct to the downside. Hasn't happened.




Moving down again on open. Maybe a bad move. Tough to hold nerve!


----------



## Trembling Hand

pavilion103 said:


> Moving down again on open. Maybe a bad move. Tough to hold nerve!




Yeah Pav different themes between the Euro/US and Asia taking hold last few days. Mainly the Iron ore price/China data.


----------



## pavilion103

Trembling Hand said:


> Yeah Pav different themes between the Euro/US and Asia taking hold last few days. Mainly the Iron ore price/China data.




Cool thanks mate. I need to be more in tune with this. The chart is telling me the story but then when comparing it to the other markets it leaves me confused. Appreciate your input.


----------



## fiftyeight

Still holding.

This is starting to become a decent % of the funds I had set aside to learn/play around with futures. If I cover now, it allows me to make a lot of mistakes in the future with out blowing up my account.

Hmmmmmm ???


----------



## pavilion103

Ahhhh. This sucks.

Had my plan in place. Executed well. 
Ended up being panicked out of my positions.

Would be $9,000 up in the last week. Instead I took $3,500. Would love to be on this still.


----------



## tech/a

pavilion103 said:


> Ahhhh. This sucks.
> 
> Had my plan in place. Executed well.
> Ended up being panicked out of my positions.
> 
> Would be $9,000 up in the last week. Instead I took $3,500. Would love to be on this still.




PAV

How can you be panicked out if you run a plan with stops?
Fear of loss!
You have to give some back---sometimes all of it---to hit home runs.
We've discussed this before!


----------



## dlineinvestor

pavilion103 said:


> Ahhhh. This sucks.
> 
> Had my plan in place. Executed well.
> Ended up being panicked out of my positions.
> 
> Would be $9,000 up in the last week. Instead I took $3,500. Would love to be on this still.



We all know where your coming from pav, u can't win them all. 
As you know you learn more from your mistakes then your victories.
Not that taking 3.5k out of the market is a mistake ...... hell no 
I say good one mate! and you'll be on to it next time for sure


----------



## pavilion103

tech/a said:


> PAV
> 
> How can you be panicked out if you run a plan with stops?
> Fear of loss!
> You have to give some back---sometimes all of it---to hit home runs.
> We've discussed this before!




It's really quite devastating for me. 
Fear of loss - emotional trading - re-assessing the context when I'm emotionally involved. 
I gave back 40 points on the SPI a couple of times at the top trying to catch this. 
I think the successful one was my 3rd attempt. 

I saw it perfectly and nailed it. 
My issue was then not sticking with the original plan. 

I have really learnt a big lesson here. 
Next time I get on one like this, stick to my original plan. 
Don't even think about changing it. Be prepared to either cop $0 or a big move. 
In these particular places it's worth it. Like when I made over 300 points on the FTSE on 1 contract during the last down move. 

Also watching the chart killed me. 
There was no need to. Once I was on with 2 I wasn't going to add under any circumstances. 
Watching the chart could only possibly make me change my mind. It had no benefit.


----------



## fiftyeight

Still holding and now about 200ish points in profit.

My problem is the opposite to PAVs, I am more likely to hold way to long, give it all back and then wonder what just happened.

Knowing this I could really tighten my stop, but then risk being taken out way to early. I could leave it where it is and wait for big volume to come in. Or try and have it both ways and move my stop but still give it some room.

My original plan was to wait for volume as a signal to exit, maybe I should stick to this and forget how much profit I am in.

The last option seems like the easiest for me to live with, however I know easy does not mean most profitable.

Ill keep pondering for now

Short 6690 on the FTSE


----------



## pavilion103

Brilliant move on the FTSE around the 6690 mark.

I've taken one of my first real attempts on the DAX. I just think contextually it was such a good place for a entry for 20 point risk. Couldn't pass it up on open.

9453 short. Stop to BE.

Fingers crossed.


----------



## fiftyeight

Nice work PAV, is that like a $600 risk?

I am staying well away from the DAX..... for now


----------



## pavilion103

fiftyeight said:


> Nice work PAV, is that like a $600 risk?  I am staying well away from the DAX..... for now




Yeh. I think around $700.

It's relatively stronger than the FTSE tonight though. I'd feel much safer with my 2 FTSE contracts at 6693. Great place to hold too.

I'm rolling the dice a bit here with the DAX.


----------



## sinic

The euro stoxx50 (estx50 on interactive brokers) to my mind is better trading than either ftse or dax. Liquidity is heaps better and the contract size is a bit smaller making the use of multiple contracts more palatable. Currently at about 3100 with 10 euros per point. There is usually about 800 contract on the bid/ask 1 pt apart. Same hours as the DAX.


----------



## fiftyeight

Yeah wish I had entered with 2, would look to take one off now and let the other run.

Possible will cost my self some $$$ but all part of sticking to my rules which I was not doing before I went on holidays. 1 contract is enough until I gain a lot more consistency


----------



## fiftyeight

Cheers sinic, will have look


----------



## sinic

Actually a smaller contract is DJ600 which is 5 euro per point with contract size only about 15000 euros. Not so liquid but still better than the spi with a few hundred contracts on the bid and ask. However, not as efficient as estx50 because brokerage is still 2 euros even though the value is only a half, and the margins are worse. Again same hours as DAX.


----------



## >Apocalypto<

happy to report trading going quite well atm after switching to a plan chart.

for me atm there's no real system that helps me. early days but i have averaged 15 points a day off the DAX so far.

there's a heap of info you fail to see while trading to a system. well for me this is the case. you get a personal feeling for the market and think a lot more about why you're selling or buying. i have still made a few crappy trades. 90% of my trades now are based off market action not just buy/sell when x=y. feeling like the DAX is not so terrifying after all. 

still using mt4 trading 1-2 mini contracts. i am thinking of switching back to ninja trader with fxcm as I prefer NT over MT4

Pav I tried a pav trade on the dow yesterday tiny stop with be at 40 up had a feeling was going to come off but they all rallied hard of that news. got to BE but was taken out. 

two trades marked on the chart... red was a sell watched this range when it failed twice to push higher sold the close. Green mark same story 2nd low failed to go lower. once the rally came on and made a high i was long. *opinions please.*


----------



## fiftyeight

Just opened some charts.......Any reason for the march onward and upwards????


----------



## skc

fiftyeight said:


> Just opened some charts.......Any reason for the march onward and upwards????




http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2014-...interest-rates-for-first-time-since-2012.html


----------



## fiftyeight

Cheers SKC

It is these kinds of things that expose my lack of understanding/knowledge...... again. A few good winners are allowing me to make many many mistakes and still be profitable. This will not last forever.

I wrote something about my lack of mentor blah blah blah or help blah, but I deleted it. There is enough info on this Forum to get started and find my own niche....I hopr


----------



## VSntchr

fiftyeight said:


> *My original plan* was to wait for volume as a signal to exit,* maybe I should stick to this* and forget how much profit I am in.




From someone who doesn't trade futures, but does trade - this bit of your post stuck out to me.


----------



## Jasonm2310

Does anyone on here trade futures spreads and is Guy Bowers material any good?


----------



## dlineinvestor

Jasonm2310 said:


> Does anyone on here trade futures spreads and is Guy Bowers material any good?



I don't do spreads buy you would know he trains prop traders, I'd say every little bit of info helps. 
Mind if I ask what tools your using ?


----------



## Jasonm2310

Only trade outright at this stage with NT and Jigsaw Dom. Been looking at it recently and it seems this method isn't  very common among retail traders, which arouses my interest even further.


----------



## dlineinvestor

Jasonm2310 said:


> Only trade outright at this stage with NT and Jigsaw Dom. Been looking at it recently and it seems this method isn't  very common among retail traders, which arouses my interest even further.



Maybe not with retail but probably with algo's, you might have your work cut out for yah. 
"NT and Jigsaw" that should work fine on most indicies. (Do you trade them ?)
Using that combo at s/r levels and pattern breakouts among other things ?


----------



## Jasonm2310

dlineinvestor said:


> Maybe not with retail but probably with algo's, you might have your work cut out for yah.
> "NT and Jigsaw" that should work fine on most indicies. (Do you trade them ?)
> Using that combo at s/r levels and pattern breakouts among other things ?




Whilst s/r levels, patterns, etc do have validity I wouldn't mind delving into spreads to see what there all about, besides if it does not fit my style it can only broaden my experience of the markets and it's players.


----------



## CanOz

Jasonm2310 said:


> Whilst s/r levels, patterns, etc do have validity I wouldn't mind delving into spreads to see what there all about, besides if it does not fit my style it can only broaden my experience of the markets and it's players.




I traded calendar spreads for a while and to be honest i didn't do very well. I didn't stick with it long enough though so not really a great reference. I did notice that they were quite easy to trade in that the risk always seems to under control, likely because the volatility was removed from the equation. Very inconvenient to trade unless you are in the US i reckon. When you need to enter and exit was best with the most liquidity.

Guy Bower and the Propex guys were bill spreaders, Short Term Interest Rate futures (STIR). With their low commissions thy could take 100 lots in size and get a move of a few ticks for quite a bit of profit. Pretty tough for us little guys to do that. Allot of how successful they are depends partly on how good they are at legging into the spread, or getting up to full position size on both or all (there are all kinds of spreads, involving up to 4 instruments, buttterflys, condors etc.) contracts. 

It seems that if you get good at trading spreads there is a ton of money to be made. I met an ex-Propex trader that was a bill spreader for years and he is quite wealthy now...he's still young too.

CanOz


----------



## Jasonm2310

Thanks Can Oz, quite interesting. I've already noticed the hours aren't really suited to when I usually trade. Most definitely will be looking into the method further.


----------



## fiftyeight

Has after hours trading changed on the FTSE?


----------



## Jasonm2310

Can Oz - What calendar spreads did you trade?


----------



## CanOz

Jasonm2310 said:


> Can Oz - What calendar spreads did you trade?




Agriculture and energy. There's a ton of energy spreads, grains etc....


----------



## Jasonm2310

Can Oz - Does this sound about right? For every 2.5/32nd move in the Tnote, there should be a move of 5/32nds in the Tbond and 1.5/32nds in the Tnote?


----------



## CanOz

Jasonm2310 said:


> Can Oz - Does this sound about right? For every 2.5/32nd move in the Tnote, there should be a move of 5/32nds in the Tbond and 1.5/32nds in the Tnote?




See my table.


----------



## Jasonm2310

CanOz said:


> See my table.



So do you divide the DV01(on CME site) by $31.25 to see how many 32nds it takes to move yield by 1bp?


----------



## pavilion103

fiftyeight said:


> Has after hours trading changed on the FTSE?




Appears so


----------



## fiftyeight

If I was running an exchange I would want ppl trading and paying brokerage 24/7.

If I was someone trading size I would want to be able to trade 24/7.

What am I missing?


----------



## CanOz

Jasonm2310 said:


> So do you divide the DV01(on CME site) by $31.25 to see how many 32nds it takes to move yield by 1bp?




I have some information (as i said in a PM to you) that will help you understand how to trade STIR futures, including how to trade the Yield curve. 

I have not traded STIR futures so in order for me to answer your question i am going to have to read my information first, then work through your example. Unfortunately i have work to do to get ready for an important visitor next week, so i can only offer to share my information with you.

Cheers,


CanOz


----------



## CanOz

fiftyeight said:


> If I was running an exchange I would want ppl trading and paying brokerage 24/7.
> 
> If I was someone trading size I would want to be able to trade 24/7.
> 
> What am I missing?




Its thanksgiving in the US.


----------



## fiftyeight

Nope, it seems to have changed when it went to ICEEU. I have been on hols for a while and not paying enough attention though???


----------



## fiftyeight

No idea about Spreads.

Jason has asked about Guy Bowers and Spreads, Guy has a facebook page and a few internet sites. Some of it is paid, but there is enough free good resources to make the decision to pay for the rest if you so wish.


----------



## fiftyeight

Another pondering.......

Regarding using volume as part of some kind of indicator or what ever you use it for. Big volume at the open is much different to big volume at lunch or after hours.

How do others adjust for this, with respect to the days volume range or an average for that time of day or....??


----------



## dlineinvestor

In a swing long aus200
CFD version of SPI
5319 4 lots equivilant to 5322 actual  SPI
C what happens ... also wanting US markets to open and keep going higher (that would be a bonus )


----------



## tech/a

dlineinvestor said:


> In a swing long aus200
> CFD version of SPI
> 5319 4 lots equivilant to 5322 actual  SPI
> C what happens ... also wanting US markets to open and keep going higher (that would be a bonus )




Why would you take a swing trade when nothing has swung?
Crazy position
In my opinion


----------



## tech/a

tech/a said:


> Why would you take a swing trade when nothing has swung?
> Crazy position
> In my opinion




But then a hard thrust down often does some correcting


----------



## CanOz

dlineinvestor said:


> In a swing long aus200
> CFD version of SPI
> 5319 4 lots equivilant to 5322 actual  SPI
> C what happens ... also wanting US markets to open and keep going higher (that would be a bonus )




Are the US markets opening tonight?


----------



## payday

CanOz said:


> Are the US markets opening tonight?




Trading half day today.


----------



## dlineinvestor

tech/a said:


> But then a hard thrust down often does some correcting



This type of thinking is what netted me 1800.00 on top of intraday gains. 4 lot x 18 pts
I didn't like price action around the 5340 area so I took profits at 5337. 
It might move higher but if commodities move any lower, I might regret it.
I cannot remember a time when GOLD, IRON ORE, OIL AND THE AUD have all been declining in unison.


----------



## dlineinvestor

CanOz said:


> Are the US markets opening tonight?



CanOz
 I should have clarified "for Monday"
By the way don't you just hate it when they are closed, bit like trading blindfolded. Not that I don't like being blindfolded ... ooops never mind !
Story for another thread in another forum


----------



## CanOz

dlineinvestor said:


> CanOz
> I should have clarified "for Monday"
> By the way don't you just hate it when they are closed, bit like trading blindfolded. Not that I don't like being blindfolded ... ooops never mind !
> Story for another thread in another forum




I've been caught before trading futures when a related cash market has been closed, thin liquidity, boring ranges...stupid.

Economic and exchange calendars are great things.


----------



## pavilion103

I haven't been too active in here. Time reasons. 

With some time off over Christmas I've got all my notes together and plan to really consolidate my trading plan and setups in writing. 

So many raw thoughts written down here and there.... so often the same ones keep coming up again and again. There are a few common threads. Clarity is key in trading. With clarity and intend I see things very clearly. When I lose site of this I lose money. 


I took one on the SPI the other day. Got stopped by 1 point . Would be up close to 100. Shame. 

I've taken a couple on the DAX for the first time. BE and 30 points the previous few days. 
Last night I got on a RIPPER. Entry 9990, stop 10,001. It moved 85 points in my favour, but I'm looking for a big move. I think it's in a good place. Trailing stop was 9960. 
I'm prepared to take a bit of a risk given the point it's at on the chart if I can get one within my risk parameters. 

Stopped out on FTSE BE last night too. 


DOW interesting. 
After this shooting up, consolidation in a very tight range. Usually means a move to follow.


----------



## pavilion103

I'm hoping with things slowing down towards the end of the year I'll get the chance to be back on posting some more charts. I think they are the most beneficial way to contribute on here.


----------



## CanOz

dlineinvestor said:


> In a swing long aus200
> CFD version of SPI
> 5319 4 lots equivilant to 5322 actual  SPI
> C what happens ... also wanting US markets to open and keep going higher (that would be a bonus )




Hope you got flat for the weekend?


----------



## dlineinvestor

CanOz said:


> Hope you got flat for the weekend?






dlineinvestor said:


> This type of thinking is what netted me 1800.00 on top of intraday gains. 4 lot x 18 pts
> I didn't like price action around the 5340 area so I took profits at 5337.
> It might move higher but if commodities move any lower, I might regret it.
> I cannot remember a time when GOLD, IRON ORE, OIL AND THE AUD have all been declining in unison.




After seeing fridays half session, the major indicies look like they are going to correct soon.
If the SPI breaks sycom low Monday *and continues* I will be looking for a test of the mid Oct low area.
Barring all other macro events everything points to the commodities recovering (ASX more so)


----------



## tech/a

Can you trade CFD'S when the markets closed?


----------



## dlineinvestor

tech/a said:


> Can you trade CFD'S when the markets closed?




Stocks no but indicies yes ....
The aus200 cfd for friday (version of the spi) runs until 8am sydney time sat morning
After hours the spread widens usually to 3-5 pts but I've seen 13 points at times. I don't make a habit of trading it after hours, one lot requires 425.00 of margin
During RTH at times it's only one point difference from the actual SPI

The German30 or DAX cfd has a one point spread during DAX RTH 
I trade that most evenings after the ASX close.
Mirror moves of the DAX


----------



## fiftyeight

My longer term SPI trade was stopped out by 4 points and has since smashed down haha

This is tough game


----------



## pavilion103

fiftyeight said:


> My longer term SPI trade was stopped out by 4 points and has since smashed down haha  This is tough game




Tell me about it!
First I stupidly closed out two contracts which were brilliant places to hold. (My own fault).
Then on Thursday before the big move of the last few days I got on near the top of the day and was stopped by 1 point!

Brutal at times!


----------



## pavilion103

SPI short - 5234. Stop to BE after 1 bar.


----------



## pavilion103

Out BE short lived lol


----------



## fiftyeight

Chopped around this morning and missed a few entries on my phone

BE for the day


----------



## fiftyeight

Short the FTSE at 6724.5

Trying to pick tops, lets see how this goes


----------



## fiftyeight

HA, No deal


----------



## tech/a

Thought you were a bit early
Volume blow off would be the hint.


----------



## fiftyeight

Yeah I was watching the DOM and got a 'feeling'. I cannot see my mother in a crowd, I have Prosopagnosia


----------



## tech/a

fiftyeight said:


> Yeah I was watching the DOM and got a 'feeling'. I cannot see my mother in a crowd, I have Prosopagnosia




Just running my DAX trade over here as an example Blaze was asking for---If interested.

https://www.aussiestockforums.com/forums/showthread.php?t=29236&page=2


----------



## fiftyeight

All over it


----------



## tech/a

Night all.

Man just had a peak before I left!

Its weak.
Still happy.


----------



## pavilion103

Short DAX 10,000.

Getting into the grove with this.

If I hold for the position trade it will be the second time I've given back $3,000 profit on the DAX this week!


----------



## CanOz

tech/a said:


> Just running my DAX trade over here as an example Blaze was asking for---If interested.
> 
> https://www.aussiestockforums.com/forums/showthread.php?t=29236&page=2




Thats an awesome top ya picked there Tech, stellar trade...especially if you're still in it!


----------



## fiftyeight

I have read a lot of your posts PAV

You seem to alternate between kicking yourself for lifting early or kicking yourself for lifting too late

Just something I have noticed


----------



## pavilion103

fiftyeight said:


> I have read a lot of your posts PAV  You seem to alternate between kicking yourself for lifting early or kicking yourself for lifting too late  Just something I have noticed




Your spot on.

I just took it off for 50 points.

Will place a wide re-entry if the US looks weakl.


----------



## pavilion103

The right balance has alluded me to say the least!

I'm sitting down to seriously work on my strategy.


----------



## fiftyeight

pavilion103 said:


> The right balance has alluded me to say the least!
> 
> I'm sitting down to seriously work on my strategy.




Good stuff, I assumed you had a plan.


----------



## pavilion103

DAX is quite interestingly. I thought maybe a false break. It then found support just above 9900. I wouldn't be surprised whatever it does now.

FTSE - I wasn't expecting such a strong gap up yesterday. Will the gap need to be filled? We are still at resistance so I favour the short direction but rest of the week will be important.

DOW - 100 points up! After the consolidation of the last week or so I thought it would top out and break down. Surely it needs to correct. Wasn't expecting it to move this far. Tonight will be interesting. Maybe a false little break? But if a strong night tonight then I've got no idea.

I feel I can't go long because
1) we are at resistance on DAX and FTSE.
2) US looks over extended.


----------



## tech/a

pavilion103 said:


> I feel I can't go long because
> 1) we are at resistance on DAX and FTSE.
> 2) US looks over extended.




*We CAN 
If the price action indicates we SHOULD!*

That's what discretionary trading is all about.
Don't form a pre conceived idea.

let the market tell you!---It will.
Simply get on and minimise risk.
Eliminate it as soon as you can.
Then right or wrong you have made a quantified decision which can play out without cost!


----------



## therooster74

Hey guys

Very interesting thread you have going here. I have moved to Aus from Europe and have generally traded the European session and occasionally the Spoos. I am struggling with the hours at the moment though and am thinking of focusing on  SPIs.

Can i ask who you use for brokerage and platform? I currently use tradestation which doesnt offer SPI but would be a pain for me to move my code over to another platform so need to do some research.

Any help is much appreciated.

Regards


----------



## tech/a

And here we are once again.
Very similar looking to see how the High at 10021 is tested
Volume is coming in but need to see if its exhausting or absorbing.





Wow that was quick as usual
short at 10020
Will post a chart when time --too fast.
Took 5 this is Bullish

False alarm short 17


----------



## kid hustlr

im not sure i understand any of that?


----------



## tech/a

kid hustlr said:


> im not sure i understand any of that?




Thinking out load and typing at the same time.

School isn't out on direction for me 
I'm short at 17 after closing my 1st short at 15 (10015)
My initial; stop is at 31 (10031 ) but intend to move it to B/E as soon as I can 
This 9 min chart will show the sell decision.
The 1 min chart shows why I have in decision.

Once set at B/E ill be going up to watch some TV with the Cheez.

Woah It just popped Lower!!
And reversing again on a high volume sell off to the short side again---all predictable.
(Thats what normally happens after really high volume.---In either direction).

*Click to expand.*







Now at B/E


----------



## tech/a

Out B/E 
5 ticks on indecision.
Night


----------



## kid hustlr

lol @ cheese haven't heard that in years


----------



## kid hustlr

I like the second short better fwiw


----------



## tech/a

kid hustlr said:


> I like the second short better fwiw




Yes it was better.
There was an air of strength around in trading
last night. The rebound in the break below 10000 became
prolonged which is often a sign that the move down -- or up
has been arrested. 
Didn't expect it to recover as quickly and as sharply so glad
I had the stop in place. 
Thought Id be slipping off to bed with 20-30 in the bag.


----------



## pavilion103

Good charts Tech. I miss those. Learnt so much from them.

As I was telling kid I left a small amount in my account, bordering on the margin requirements for the DAX. I got closed out of a position. I made a loss last light then a profit on the second trade. No idea why it closed a trade that was UP?

I traded the SPI and made 54 points today. Still says I don't have enough margin for the DAX weird given that I entered it with less in the account yesterday :S

Any ideas?


----------



## pavilion103

Solved the issue.

I had enough only for intra day trade in my account.

I need double to hold over night.

Makes sense.


----------



## CanOz

pavilion103 said:


> Solved the issue.
> 
> I had enough only for intra day trade in my account.
> 
> I need double to hold over night.
> 
> Makes sense.




Initial margin and maintenance margin...


----------



## pavilion103

Is anyone else having issues with IB?

My internet is fine. Working for everything. 

My internet on mobile is the same. 

Can't log into IB. It won't connect.


----------



## pavilion103

I'm in.


----------



## captain black

pavilion103 said:


> Is anyone else having issues with IB?
> 
> My internet is fine. Working for everything.
> 
> My internet on mobile is the same.
> 
> Can't log into IB. It won't connect.




All ok here Pav but I've been logged in since early this morning.


----------



## captain black

pavilion103 said:


> I'm in.


----------



## pavilion103

Well I'm glad I got on in time for this decent move. 

Would have been annoyed seeing if I hadn't and woke up to see that juicy setup at the high.


----------



## pavilion103

Anyone else had a fairly active week? 
Markets trending well at the moment.
I've been waiting for that top to setup up and then break lower. Good time of opportunity this week and maybe going forward.


----------



## tech/a

pavilion103 said:


> Anyone else had a fairly active week?
> Markets trending well at the moment.
> I've been waiting for that top to setup up and then break lower. Good time of opportunity this week and maybe going forward.




Not a lot at all this week.
1 session.
Too many X messy things going on.
Next week is worse.
Then Xmas then New year.

Have 3 weeks off but wont be a holiday!


----------



## pavilion103

That was either my best or second best week ever. So pumped. 

I might get the chance to post some charts with my post week analysis being on today or tomorrow. But I've said that before and haven't had time so we'll see. 

A clear top formed. It was a very high probability time and RR time to be shorting. 

I'm disappointed with my liquidity situation for the DAX. That would have been perfect but I can't be unhappy with the FTSE this week. 

Tech taught me some good risk management principles in a chat last week. I implemented them in my trading this week. Never ceases to amaze me how much I can learn from that guy. Champion.

Last time during the fall a couple of moths back I took bigger risks than I should have at times. I was fortunate that the market was moving so well. This time I am thoroughly satisfied. I managed risk at the same time and got the same result.

The next step is learning how to better add to my positions when it's trending like this. A valuable skill. And next on my list!


----------



## pavilion103

Friday just the 1 contract because I wasn't going to be home for long. Didn't want too much open risk. This is my least used type of trade where I jump on momentum when I feel it is warranted. I initially had the high at the very top of the day and then moved it quickly to the red mark and then to BE very quickly.


----------



## pavilion103

Thursday night. Probably my favourite type of setup. Allows me to get one entry with a limit order and the other on the break. If the original one fails I can lose 3-5 points. If the second is triggered I can move the first one to BE and have a total of 7-9 points risk, depending how wide the setup is. In this case the risk was 5 points and 9 points.


----------



## pavilion103

Wednesday night. I lost some points on the open. Didn't want to take too many risks after that. Managed to get on a good one. Just the 1 contract.


----------



## pavilion103

First setup too risky. Was probably silly to take it even though it worked. 2nd entry good, but out BE. 3rd entry perfect.


----------



## pavilion103

Monday night was a poor start to the week. Too aggressive near the open and was down about 30 for the night. Unacceptable trading. The rest of the week was brilliant. I think close to around 400 points. 


What hurt me this week was Monday night (after my initial losses). 

I had up the DAX and FTSE. 
I jumped on the FTSE for 8 points risk, but then I exited specifically to get on the DAX. 
I dived in the DAX and got my stop to BE asap. 
Overnight the DAX just got taken out. The FTSE didn't. 
Both were intended position trades. 

Costly in hindsight. IF the DAX had come off I was laughing but it didn't. 
If I had held the FTSE I would have held it all week without doubt a this was an intended position trade. 
Probably cost me $5,000- $6,000. 

Frustrating time to get unlucky.

Finished up around $7,100. 
Could have certainly been $12,000-13,000, but not to be. 

In hindsight, also wish I'd maybe taken an extra contract each night, given the massive trend and opportunity available. Certainly the plan is to try and get to 3 in these types of markets. 

Next time..... 

Overall a great week for me. 
It had been slugish the few weeks before so was good to cash in somewhat.


----------



## pavilion103

The usual plan is to take 2 at the top as a position trade. Had that occurred it would have been around $12,000 just on those two. I had been watching this top for a while and was setting up for a position trade. I wish I hadn't got caught up in the DAX, but easy to say in hindsight because it could have been huge. 

This week opened my eyes. It was a massive trend but showed me the potential. 
Had there been 2 position trades = $12,000. 
Had I then taken the other trades = $7,000. 

That's almost $20,000 in 1 week from what can be reasonably expected to occur at a time like this. This is without any real luck but just a huge trend. 

I know there are some on here who are probably making much much more than this, but for me this is yet another eye opener. It is not unreasonable to think that $20,000 can be made in the rare weeks like this one. One where a clear top is in place so you'd be actively looking for these trades also. It isn't just hindsight stuff. 

I think I will be a bit more conservative now and see how things play out next week.


----------



## fiftyeight

Good stuff Pav

I have also been waiting to see how this top played out. Unfortunately life gets in the way again, I started a FIFO job so I missed the first 3 hours on the FTSE. Jumped on each night and had a look, nearly took a couple but its not how I have been trading so thought better to stand aside 

Time to come up with a new game plan whilst I am on site


----------



## pavilion103

fiftyeight said:


> Good stuff Pav  I have also been waiting to see how this top played out. Unfortunately life gets in the way again, I started a FIFO job so I missed the first 3 hours on the FTSE. Jumped on each night and had a look, nearly took a couple but its not how I have been trading so thought better to stand aside   Time to come up with a new game plan whilst I am on site




Annoying to miss the first part of the day. It's so crucial. Missing the first 3 hours is tough. I'd be interested to know what you come up with. Maybe some sort of holding longer strategy? Had I stayed in my trade on Monday (3 hours after open). I would still be in! And I would have had to do nothing further with that contract all week.


----------



## pavilion103

Missed the short after failed shorts at 6315 and 6330.

Bloody turned it off not long before the fall !!!


----------



## tech/a

DAX short 

Waiting ages for this to develop

Not the greatest of entries but-----

Click to expand





A risk of ranging here (at about 386)
will revisit before I go to bed.


----------



## tech/a

Stopped--flushed me out!
Set again at 403
and stop 421
Off to bed.


----------



## Nortorious

Hi Pav and Tech/A,

I have been following this thread with interest and will be looking to move into this type of trading activity in the new year. I've been working the demo accounts on a number of platforms etc., and as they expire move to the next.

Interested to know what systems, software and broker you are working with? 

Hopefully I can contribute more broadly to the discussions regarding the trading etc in the future.

Thanks in advance


----------



## lesm

tech/a said:


> Stopped--flushed me out!
> Set again at 403
> and stop 421
> Off to bed.




Thought you were being a bit cheeky with the first entry 

But, you already knew it wasn't a great entry.

Was already in there long watching the bars print at the time. Entered pre-news with wide stops, behaved as expected.

See how the second entry works out for you.

There are still buyers lined up holding the price up at the moment with sellers higher up pushing the price back.

It may be later in the week before we see a deep dive, which could be interesting going into Christmas. Like all things trading, it will happen when it happens.

All the best with your trading.

Cheers


----------



## tech/a

Well PAV every time you think you've been hard done by

Think of this trade.

I had an exit at 225 the low of the trade was 225.5 then around it went!

Click to expand.






Merry Xmas!!!


----------



## avion

Tech, you did not have trailing stop? What happened in the end... profit, break even?


----------



## tech/a

avion said:


> Tech, you did not have trailing stop? What happened in the end... profit, break even?




My profit stop was an exit at 225.
Now that would have been nice.
But 1/2 tick short----

No trailing I was asleep.
Before I went to bed I did move stop to B/E
but had the earlier loss.

Needless to say a little narked! (That 1/2 tick cost me around $6K----well maybe my sleep cost me---)

But when your not watching it this can happen.
Another 1/2 tick and it would be drinks all round!

*NEXT!*


----------



## pavilion103

tech/a said:


> Well PAV every time you think you've been hard done by  Think of this trade.  I had an exit at 225 the low of the trade was 225.5 then around it went!  Click to expand.  <img src="https://www.aussiestockforums.com/forums/attachment.php?attachmentid=60777"/>  Merry Xmas!!!




You win


----------



## VSntchr

tech/a said:


> Needless to say a little narked! (That 1/2 tick cost me around $6K----well maybe my sleep cost me---)
> 
> 
> *NEXT!*




I was watching the Euro markets last night and when it got down to your target area I was adding it up in my head based on your chart and thought it was about $6k.
I hope that sleep was the best you've ever had!!


----------



## pavilion103

I went to bed 70 points up and it was gone by morning. I thought I was safe. US only went negative late in the day. I thought US wouldn't push up so much.

Contemplated a DAX entry 9340 with a stop of 20 points. In the next 30 mins I saw it down over 100. Would gladly taken that. 

Next few nights interesting. No idea from here. The weak finish in the US is interesting.


----------



## pavilion103

US looked weak last night.

I don't think we have a bottom yet. But some big volume appearing now.


----------



## fiftyeight

At BE at 6245, lets see if I can pull a Tech and go to bed and wake up with a nice surprise


----------



## fiftyeight

Well didnt enjoy that, dont think that is for me.

Whats the best way to chart with roll over and looking at larger time frames?


----------



## fiftyeight

I would like to start playing around with multiple contracts, maybe in the 5 - 10 range but dont have the skill or funds to do this using full lots. Are CFDs the only way to take smaller size contrats on Futures Markets?


----------



## dead trader

I'm also very interested in the answer to fiftyeight's question.


----------



## CanOz

fiftyeight said:


> Well didnt enjoy that, dont think that is for me.
> 
> Whats the best way to chart with roll over and looking at larger time frames?




You should be using continuos contracts for longer term analysis. In Ninjatrader they're expressed as FDAX##-## for example....


----------



## CanOz

There are a few ways to trade with multiple contracts:

All in all out
Scale in scale out
All in scale out
Scale in all out

Each one has different advantages and disadvantages that can be suited better to different plays. From a purely psychological POV scaling in with a core position and then adding to it once the play goes your way is much easier. Statistically I have seen studies that show all in scale out to be the most profitable method. 

If you are using CFDs be careful that you are not entering trades when the spread is artificially wider than it should be.

CanOz


----------



## fiftyeight

Cheers CanOz

Yeah thats why I wanted to play around cheaply, to find out what style would suit me best. I actually like the all in scale out method but I am not sure I could handle being stopped with a large position.

So many ppl seem to talk down CFDs but seem like its the only instrument that will suit


----------



## CanOz

fiftyeight said:


> Cheers CanOz
> 
> Yeah thats why I wanted to play around cheaply, to find out what style would suit me best. I actually like the all in scale out method but I am not sure I could handle being stopped with a large position.
> 
> So many ppl seem to talk down CFDs but seem like its the only instrument that will suit




Being very well capitalised comes in handy here too. For me a full stop out on 4 Dax contracts was pretty painful, even though I had a decent sized account. Once I was able to get better at working  1 contract then adding as it went on my favor, it gave me better results. I was able to be wrong many more times without putting my daily stop in play. So while all in scale out seemed the best method for me, it would not allow me the chance to apply my edge enough times to have it work for me, because I wouldn't be around to play anymore.

By using the depth of market, I could also trying and get into my trade when the market pulled back, allowing me to take less heat. Then at a key level again, I could add another contract, slowing building up a position. If you think of the market in fractals, the depth was just the smallest fractal that I could accurately play in to use the pullbacks in momentum moves to my best advantage....

I had suspected that the guys like TH were doing something similar for a while, but couldn't quite get the hang of it. I had to go back to sim for a few months before the light went on.

CanOz


----------



## dead trader

CanOz. Are there only continuous contracts in CFDs?


----------



## fiftyeight

Very well capitalised or very small lot sizes haha.

I know I should be using sim, but I just cant apply my self the same way. I feel the only way I personally learn is by actually having some skin in the game.

I suspect that ill come to the same conclusion and end up scaling in and out. I have no issues loosing money (I dont like it obviously) and tend to let profits come back on me way too far. So scaling in should help me limit risk but it wont let me take a little profit from my initial position.

All things I need to explore and ponder.


----------



## CanOz

greasy_pancakes said:


> CanOz. Are there only continuous contracts in CFDs?




CFDs are synthetic, so continuos by nature. Futures contracts for index futures usually expire once a month or once a qtr, so to look at something accurate for longer term price and volume you need continuous back adjusted futures contracts.


----------



## CanOz

fiftyeight said:


> Very well capitalised or very small lot sizes haha.
> 
> I know I should be using sim, but I just cant apply my self the same way. I feel the only way I personally learn is by actually having some skin in the game.
> 
> I suspect that ill come to the same conclusion and end up scaling in and out. I have no issues loosing money (I dont like it obviously) and tend to let profits come back on me way too far. So scaling in should help me limit risk but it wont let me take a little profit from my initial position.
> 
> All things I need to explore and ponder.




Sim is good to test ideas, but agree it has its limits.

Good luck mate!


----------



## fiftyeight

Yeah will play around with sim and test some ideas then ill have a crack.

What about minis, if I can find one that works well with my time zone? Am I reading correct that the HSI mini is HK$10 a point, or about AUD$1.50?

And the margin requirements would they be listed in HK$ as well? So Initial Intraday Margin = HK$8,775


----------



## fiftyeight

So far looks like the HSI mini will be the way to go during my week off. Good hours and I wont go broke too quickly. Comish is a bit higher but obviously much more range.


----------



## CanOz

fiftyeight said:


> So far looks like the HSI mini will be the way to go during my week off. Good hours and I wont go broke too quickly. Comish is a bit higher but obviously much more range.




Thats actually not a bad idea....just ignore the commissions and only review the net points...

If you can, keep the HHI open at the same time frame as well, just for a reference...

Looking forward to seeing your stats, lots of key levels to wtach, the prior O,H,L,C...also the opening swing high and low....build your self a little playbook. Just make sure to BEWARE THE NEWS!

CanOz


----------



## fiftyeight

Awesome, was hoping I had not missed something obvious.

I am on 3:1 swings at the moment so I wont be able to put in much/any screen time. I will use this time to get everything set-up. 

Maybe finally fund my AMP account so I can have a play around with NT and use it to record some HSI stuff. Also found some good stuff on another forum which had some links to some free NT some that might be useful

Maybe ill start the "From Something To Nothing Thread"


----------



## dead trader

CanOz said:


> You should be using continuos contracts for longer term analysis. In Ninjatrader they're expressed as FDAX##-## for example....





Hey CanOz, do I need to replace the ##-## with anything (like numbers) in Ninja?


----------



## CanOz

greasy_pancakes said:


> Hey CanOz, do I need to replace the ##-## with anything (like numbers) in Ninja?




No, the # symbols should be one of the options under that contract in "instrument manager"

Make sure you have your data settings set to "merge back adjusted" under "options"

CanOz


----------



## CanOz

fiftyeight said:


> Awesome, was hoping I had not missed something obvious.
> 
> I am on 3:1 swings at the moment so I wont be able to put in much/any screen time. I will use this time to get everything set-up.
> 
> Maybe finally fund my AMP account so I can have a play around with NT and use it to record some HSI stuff. Also found some good stuff on another forum which had some links to some free NT some that might be useful
> 
> Maybe ill start the "From Something To Nothing Thread"




Remember though, AMP do not offer the HSI. Double check it but last time I checked they didn't.


----------



## dead trader

CanOz said:


> CFDs are synthetic, so continuos by nature. Futures contracts for index futures usually expire once a month or once a qtr, so to look at something accurate for longer term price and volume you need continuous back adjusted futures contracts.




Since futures inherently have an expiration date, does that mean I cannot trade futures? I am only looking to trade continuous contracts...I am assuming I can only trade CFD's...am I wrong?


----------



## tech/a

greasy_pancakes said:


> Since futures inherently have an expiration date, does that mean I cannot trade futures? I am only looking to trade continuous contracts...I am assuming I can only trade CFD's...am I wrong?




You can trade Futures.
Simply roll over into the next contract before expiry.


----------



## dead trader

tech/a said:


> You can trade Futures.
> Simply roll over into the next contract before expiry.




Thanks tech/a.

I learn something new every day and today is no exception. 

Trading is a supermarket of unlimited cans of worms, just the way I like it!


----------



## CanOz

greasy_pancakes said:


> Thanks tech/a.
> 
> I learn something new every day and today is no exception.
> 
> Trading is a supermarket of unlimited cans of worms, just the way I like it!




Yeah its kind of funny actually, it almost seems like they make the markets deliberatly complicated...

Futures were always based on agricultural s so they had seasonal reasons for the expiry's. In theory the indices could likely go to a longer contract....yearly maybe?

CanOz


----------



## fiftyeight

I want to have a play around with simply as it seems a popular choice. Also the plugins seem like the might be useful.

As Can Oz pointed  out AMP does not support the HSI. So are people paying for a data feed and paying for NT? Then  executing through IB? Does this get a bit messy or NT submits the trade through IB automatically.


----------



## payday

fiftyeight said:


> So are people paying for a data feed and paying for NT? Then  executing through IB? Does this get a bit messy or NT submits the trade through IB automatically.




That's how I do it. It doesn't get messy not for me anyways. You can trade through NT using their DOM which links with your IB account. I don't trade the HSI btw - just US futures. I have my charts on one of my monitors and the IB screen is always up on another monitor so when I see a setup I just put the order in manually. My data provider is IQFeed which supplies data for both my NT platform and amibroker as well.


----------



## fiftyeight

Thanks heaps for that payday.

What features are you using in NT that TWS does not have.

Part of the reason I wanted try out NT is so I can reply my days trading and take another look at my trades, as well as review all the stats. Not sure how this would work if I am not executing through NT. But if NT talks to IB then all good


----------



## CanOz

The DJ Eurostoxx50 at a key level here...will be watching for a position here when we open after Christmas.


----------



## CanOz

The HS Mini is also at a key level...


----------



## pavilion103

Interesting levels and price behavior in most markets that I'm following. Definitely looking for a position trade. 

My "long filter" now turned off and watching price action at this level for the next move.


----------



## fiftyeight

Yeah time to start paying attention to the hsm.


----------



## fiftyeight

If I get NT through AMP, am I able to use a different data feed or I am restricted to theirs?


----------



## CanOz

fiftyeight said:


> If I get NT through AMP, am I able to use a different data feed or I am restricted to theirs?




What you will be restricted to is brokers, not data feeds. You need to either lease or own a copy of NT to trade.


----------



## fiftyeight

Haha yeah that would make sense. Ill bite the bullet in the near future


----------



## CanOz

CanOz said:


> The HS Mini is also at a key level...




Well the market jumped the creek here, gapping open significantly. Shorts are risky but return to close the gap may provide a buying opportunity if buyers respond!

I wonder if the FESX does a similar thing this arvo?

CanOz


----------



## CanOz

Another trade opportunity could be happening soon in crude oil. We could get a decent short squeeze starting somewhere above 56.00, im only on my iPad so if someone else could post a chart, it's quite obvious. I would look at trading the mini here though, the QM 02-15.


----------



## payday

CanOz said:


> Another trade opportunity could be happening soon in crude oil. We could get a decent short squeeze starting somewhere above 56.00, im only on my iPad so if someone else could post a chart, it's quite obvious. I would look at trading the mini here though, the QM 02-15.


----------



## fiftyeight

Only managed to glance at the HSI on my mobile a few times with sketchy reception. Haha 400 gap


----------



## fiftyeight

Only managed to glance at the HSI on my mobile a few times with sketchy reception. Haha 400 gap


----------



## dead trader

fiftyeight said:


> Haha 400 gap




Looks like the big money is trying to get the little money to follow it - for that little bit more before chewing them up... I feel sorry for the mum and dad investors in HK already...


----------



## CanOz

greasy_pancakes said:


> Looks like the big money is trying to get the little money to follow it - for that little bit more before chewing them up... I feel sorry for the mum and dad investors in HK already...




I haven't checked lately but I think the gap filled, the key now is if that level can find buyers, no buyers, or more selling? I'd want to buy any decent buying there, but if price gets rejected there I would be bearish. Similar situ on the FESX actually, it's turned out quite bearish, for now...


----------



## waterbottle

Hi All,

Very informative thread here. I have only read the first 10 pages but plan to read the rest. 
I am currently trying to work out how to trade forex (mostly because I can do so between 7:30pm and 9:30 pm) but some of the talk about futures seems interesting.

I have a few questions:

How do you work out a R:R before you enter a trade? I know that risk = entry - stop loss and reward = profit target - entry, but then aren't you assuming that your trade will hit a particular target (which it may not)?
Are there any good resources on how to read the DOM? Is it applicable to FX or is it useless because of the lack of volume data?
How do you build up the statistics which characterise your market? e.g. average size/duration of a trend, average range, average retracement etc. I realise that some of this can be done in Excel, but if I want more detail (e.g. the average retracement for a 100 pip trend), then it gets tediuous and requires too much time/manual work
Any websites out there that you can recommend to teach you futures? e.g. FX has forexfactory and babypips

Cheers


----------



## CanOz

> [*]How do you work out a R:R before you enter a trade? I know that risk = entry - stop loss and reward = profit target - entry, but then aren't you assuming that your trade will hit a particular target (which it may not)?



 R:R is just a way to try and make sure you are aiming for targets that will pay you more in the long run. By assuming a target, whther that be a value area, a measured move etc., you can estimate what the reward will be and try and stick in the trade until its reached.


> [*]Are there any good resources on how to read the DOM? Is it applicable to FX or is it useless because of the lack of volume data?



There are no secrets to reading the DOM but there are a few things that go on in the depth that are handy to learn. Its also a great way to execute trades, especially when the market pulls back to your limit order. I have some videos on here somewhere showing the games that go on in the depth, DAX mostly. Its useless with FX but fine for Currency futures.


> [*]How do you build up the statistics which characterise your market? e.g. average size/duration of a trend, average range, average retracement etc. I realise that some of this can be done in Excel, but if I want more detail (e.g. the average retracement for a 100 pip trend), then it gets tediuous and requires too much time/manual work



 There are tons of posts around the internet on stats or homework as some call it. You can use excel to mine the data, or write code. I have a good eLancer that helps me with this from time to time.


> [*]Any websites out there that you can recommend to teach you futures? e.g. FX has forexfactory and babypips
> [/LIST]



 ASF has some good threads. There are some good books around too but the best way is to just open a sim account and get some screen time.


Ask me anything, I'll do my best to help you out.

CanOz


----------



## waterbottle

CanOz said:


> R:R is just a way to try and make sure you are aiming for targets that will pay you more in the long run. By assuming a target, whther that be a value area, a measured move etc., you can estimate what the reward will be and try and stick in the trade until its reached.
> 
> There are no secrets to reading the DOM but there are a few things that go on in the depth that are handy to learn. Its also a great way to execute trades, especially when the market pulls back to your limit order. I have some videos on here somewhere showing the games that go on in the depth, DAX mostly. Its useless with FX but fine for Currency futures.
> There are tons of posts around the internet on stats or homework as some call it. You can use excel to mine the data, or write code. I have a good eLancer that helps me with this from time to time.
> ASF has some good threads. There are some good books around too but the best way is to just open a sim account and get some screen time.
> 
> 
> Ask me anything, I'll do my best to help you out.
> 
> CanOz




Thanks CanOz.

I am a bit wary of entering futures so soon as I'm still trying to get a hold on FX. I will play around with currency futures on NT.


----------



## waterbottle

I am up to page 66 and have got a few more questions:

From what I have seen so far, the most common type of trade is one where a breakout trend is anticipated following a period of consolidation. Is there any reason for this?
How frequently do the contributers to this thread trade? 
Do patterns have an expiry date? In other words, do you continuously have to find new patterns for entries/exits as old ones no longer work?


----------



## spydoo

CanOz said:


> What you will be restricted to is brokers, not data feeds. You need to either lease or own a copy of NT to trade.




You can still trade with AMP's NT download if you sign up with them. The platform's called NT direct. Orders can be placed on the DOM but trade strategies (preset stoplosses, targets and so on) and OCO orders are greyed out. Chart trader is also missing.

Also, brokerage fees are reduced by around a USD per round trip for a purchased/leased licence through both NT and AMP, I believe. So, while it's possible to trade without a purchased or leased licence, for someone who is going to trade everyday it's probably worth paying for one. 

As you say though, you are also restricted in brokers. NT brokerage also offers NT direct, with the same conditions. I think there may be others but I'm not sure.


----------



## CanOz

spydoo said:


> You can still trade with AMP's NT download if you sign up with them. The platform's called NT direct. Orders can be placed on the DOM but trade strategies (preset stoplosses, targets and so on) and OCO orders are greyed out. Chart trader is also missing.
> 
> Also, brokerage fees are reduced by around a USD per round trip for a purchased/leased licence through both NT and AMP, I believe. So, while it's possible to trade without a purchased or leased licence, for someone who is going to trade everyday it's probably worth paying for one.
> 
> As you say though, you are also restricted in brokers. NT brokerage also offers NT direct, with the same conditions. I think there may be others but I'm not sure.




Yup, all good points, i forgot that you could actually trade, just not using the more sought after components....

Wild day on the Eurostoxx


----------



## pavilion103

Short FTSE.

Fraction away from a DAX trade at the top.

Short SPI.

Only interested in holding at this point in time.


----------



## waterbottle

I found this video about order flow analysis/DOM if anyone is interested. I've only watched the first 30min and I found it good as an intro.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=-rKhybqaNLs


----------



## pavilion103

Open position. Notes below. 

63 points open profit = $1,200. 

But strategy is to hold because I have only one contract. Has worked in the past.


----------



## pavilion103

Open position on the SPI. 

Well aware of the risks of giving back good profit. 

But I have decided that these high RR spots for a position trade are worth 2-3 attempts to get on one.


----------



## pavilion103

Here are some pages from my newly created Playbook. 
This is my short section on my position trade strategy and only represents one sub section of the playbook which includes: general strategy, psychology, risk management, long setups,short setups, how to trade different markets. 

Note (as stated previously) that it may take a few attempts to get on a position trade. 

But once on it, it eliminates all the noise and is a semi-passive trading strategy in that I can leave it for a week or two without having to even log on and do a single thing. 

So as well as the consideration of profitability versus profits given back, is also the consideration of time and not having to be at the screen to capture subsequent moves.


----------



## CanOz

Nice playbook Pav, lots of work gone into that its plain to see.

I see the FTSE is, as are the other Euro markets, in a balanced bracket area again. We are at a very low volume period of the season though, so next week should bring some interesting participants back into play.

CanOz


----------



## pavilion103

Yes I agree. Difficult to discern during this period.

I've traded nothing intraday in the past 2 weeks.

A good break.


----------



## debtfree

Thanks Pav for a peek into your Playbook.

Once again, as with your informative charts and posts, you keep on giving to help others, I appreciate it very much.

Cheers ... Debtfree


----------



## pavilion103

Some thoughts on DOW and FTSE.

This is my brief weekly analysis of these two particular markets. SPI and DAX reasonably similar to FTSE. 

Interested to see if any differing views.


----------



## CanOz

I can't post until I get back home but there is a similar scenario in my head, but it involves a bearish wedge....use the S&Ps Pav, the Dow is only 30 stocks...more relevant I reckon...


----------



## CanOz

Some scenarios i was thinking of....


----------



## pavilion103

Ok I'll do S&P from now on. Cheers 

Ok similar thinking. Hopefully accurate


----------



## pavilion103

FTSE - still short 6545 position trade.

Took 1 tonight here. Considered holding which would have been a good idea imo, however plan is to hold one and trade 1 intraday. Finished up 35 points on that one. A few other little trades for overall break even. 

Summary
Intra-day trade = +35 points
Poisition trade = +90* points (open profit at risk)


(note: ignore the red entry level and profit at the top corner. Getting in and out a little has distorted this. Net position is above).


----------



## pavilion103

Came back on and saw something. 

Short 6453 stop 6456.5 limit order.
Stop to BE quickly.
Took 15 points because I wanted to go to bed. 


Finished up 50 points net.

Position trade up 117 points open profit.

Good night.
Had potential for more though.
Still satisfied.


----------



## CanOz

Yowza, that core short of yours is doing well now....see how the S&Ps cover the gap, if they don't find buyers there we're rooted....


----------



## tech/a

Nice---Very Nice PAV


----------



## debtfree

I applaud your discipline Pav, waiting for the right trades to come to you, those low risk entries. 

Sure after the fact you could have made more but you stuck to your plan, picked up your cash and let your position trade do it's thing. Excellent ... Will be interesting to follow this position trade to see where the run finishes and how.

Cheers ... Debtfree


----------



## pavilion103

Thanks guys. 

Things went to plan last night. Glad I've got one on.  

I feel, however, that the night could have been anything. 

Thought really hard about holding the second until this morning. 
Same with 6453. Considered holding at BE. Took 15 points before bed instead because there was risk of it being taken. 
Even almost took another one while I was in the 6453 one (6450, stop 6451.5) which would have held. 

You can't nail it all perfectly. But this just shows that on a trending day you can get low risk setups along the way to add to your position. A really good chance to make hundred of points on those days if it's a fairly clear run down. 

Just some things for us to think about going forward..........

But who can complain with 50 points and an open position trade well in the money. 



Interesting from here. I was initially thinking 6200ish to take the position trade off. We aren't too far away if it pushes down in the next few days. Whether it smashes right down I don't know but I won't do anything too risky if it goes to the previous lows. Want to lock some in. 

Volatiltiy in the up and down moves recently has been huge.


----------



## pavilion103

Short SPI.
5343, stop 5350.
Got it to BE quick.

Push up to resistance of previous days then some no demand consolidation on 1 min. In conjunction with 5 min.

Tough to know how to play this. Space below.


----------



## pavilion103

Stop 5322


----------



## pavilion103

Profit taken - 40 points. $1,000. 

Even though this could well go lower I won't hold a trade unless I'm "safe" or it's right near the top. In this case it's too much of a gamble to throw away 40 points. 

1. Last week I had a ripper of an entry - 5,440. 30 points from the top. I didn't hold which was against my plan. 
2. Then I got in yesterday at around 5420 for an intented position trade and this just got taken out by a few points.
3. Then last night I entered a SPI contract out of hours (when trading FTSE) for 5,400 for a 5 point intitial risk. Then I exited it minutes later in case I wanted more money to take more FTSE contracts. In the end the 5,400 was untouched and I'd be laughing at 100 points up. 

So the opportunities were there. 1 & 3 were my stupidity. 2 was unlucky. I could have been aggressive and gone in again with this one but it would have been a little wide for my liking. 

Strategy 3 is an interesting one. 
I have no idea the merits of it but I've done it a few times with good effect. 
In the right places I will happily do this again. 


So SPI will be purely intra-day for me going forward in this move.


----------



## tech/a

Agree PAV at least in the immediate short term.
I expect tonight and tomorrow to snap back a bit


----------



## pavilion103

tech/a said:


> Agree PAV at least in the immediate short term.
> I expect tonight and tomorrow to snap back a bit




It will be interesting to see the reaction of the market the next couple of nights. 
I'm hoping it doesn't push up too violently. 

I'm thinking 200 points is quite safe for the moment. 

A push up would offer another good opportunity to get on another good short.

I'll be at the cricket tonight so I can sit back and not worry about it too much!


----------



## pavilion103

Also I'm not sure how much weighting to put on this Tech, but it is interesting to note that the last two moves (down and then up), both occurred with no real pullback. I'm not sure why the moves were so swift, and I'm not implying that the same will happen again, but it is just an observation.


----------



## tech/a

pavilion103 said:


> Also I'm not sure how much weighting to put on this Tech, but it is interesting to note that the last two moves (down and then up), both occurred with no real pullback. I'm not sure why the moves were so swift, and I'm not implying that the same will happen again, but it is just an observation.




Pretty common with distribution.


----------



## CanOz

I wouldn't be surprised to see an inside day if the lows can hold. If that can be achieved then it would certainly setup nicely for a short covering rally...if the lows can't hold here on the major indices then obviously we're going much lower....

Fwiw, the volume going over the top on all the indices was very light, day time frame traders seemed in control the whole time. It's almost as if the big boys just waited for the exits to get over run before scooping up the bargains...but that's just the cynic in me I guess...If you think about though, it makes perfect sense with a market priced at these multiples, if you can't find any bargains, engineer some of your own simply but not participating. Nice clean out for the start of the year...


----------



## dead trader

Agree with you there CanOz! 

I'm seeing a bearish flag formation on the DAX. If it goes south, we are heading so much south it is not funny.


----------



## dead trader

I entered short 2 contracts, limit order at 9448.


----------



## pavilion103

At the cricket.
Only saw first 5 mins. 
Took a sneaky entry which got taken.
Bloody annoying.
Another 30 mins and I would have been back in.

Ah well.

1 running.


----------



## pavilion103

1 trade tonight. Long 6316 out for 50 points.

Thinking it may go higher but 50 is enough for me. 1 contract only so want to lock some in.
At a top from yesterday.
Waiting on US open.

Still holding position trade as planned.
Was tempted to just exit but plan is to hold.

Anyone have any thoughts on daily chart analysis.
I'm thining next few nights will paint a picture.

Low volume tonight on this push up compared to last 2.


----------



## pavilion103

Interesting couple of nights ahead. How price reacts on this push up will determine a lot.


----------



## pavilion103

Holy heck that's some gap on the DAX!!!

Should have held my FTSE over night!


----------



## pavilion103

As long as the FTSE gaps up then comes back and closes it will be happy!

I've got around 150 points to play with in my position trade.


----------



## prophetable

Ive been wondering how to document my trading plan recently and thanks to Pav i reckon i will follow a similar way of writing my trade areas down.
Thanks for your insights into your plan setup Pav - it helps me a lot to visualise how im going to do it.
Your efforts from the start of this thread are appreciated. 

Cheers
Prophetable


----------



## tech/a

pavilion103 said:


> As long as the FTSE gaps up then comes back and closes it will be happy!
> 
> I've got around 150 points to play with in my position trade.




The DAX looks Bullish PAV.
Think it will hold long at last until the DJIA open

Not taken a trade though


----------



## pavilion103

tech/a said:


> The DAX looks Bullish PAV.
> Think it will hold long at last until the DJIA open
> 
> Not taken a trade though




Less than 100 to play with.

Thinking taking 200 in the hand would have been wise.

Exiting my long yesterday for no real reason also costly.

A few things I'd do differently.
Learnt a bit from this experience.


----------



## pavilion103

Will probably be a "what if" week.

Yesterday could have locked in $6,500 for the week. Had I held the long to the resistance above here id be looking at about $9,000.

Will likely end up just under $2,000 up if my short is taken.


For where I'm at, unless there is strong downward momentum exiting is probably a good idea. That momentum was halted yesterday. Could have always reentered the short higher up.

Need the weekend break! 
Too up and down this week.


----------



## tech/a

pavilion103 said:


> Will probably be a "what if" week.
> 
> Yesterday could have locked in $6,500 for the week. Had I held the long to the resistance above here id be looking at about $9,000.
> 
> Will likely end up just under $2,000 up if my short is taken.
> 
> 
> For where I'm at, unless there is strong downward momentum exiting is probably a good idea. That momentum was halted yesterday. Could have always reentered the short higher up.
> 
> Need the weekend break!
> Too up and down this week.





PAV
Your breaking one of your rules

-----not to break your rules!

You have to change your mindset.
Your position trade failed.
No what ifs
You break even on this one.
When you get a position trade that continues you'll have profit that you can only dream of.

Very difficult to hold a long term trade in one direction and trade against it.

You have to keep the analysis and timeframe COMPLETELY.separate.

Remember it's a business,


----------



## pavilion103

tech/a said:


> PAV
> Your breaking one of your rules
> 
> -----not to break your rules!
> 
> You have to change your mindset.
> Your position trade failed.
> No what ifs
> You break even on this one.
> When you get a position trade that continues you'll have profit that you can only dream of.
> 
> Very difficult to hold a long term trade in one direction and trade against it.
> 
> You have to keep the analysis and timeframe COMPLETELY.separate.
> 
> Remember it's a business,




Thank you Tech. The voice of reason as usual. 

I think this was one of my best trading weeks in terms of patience and execution. 
Also as well as following my rules. 


I'm considering the fact that I have both an intra-day strategy and a longer term position trade strategy but nothing in between. 

I really feel that the 100-200 point trades could be a very profitable approach. Holding over 2-3 days when momentum is identified. I will work with this a little more, but this idea is really resonating with me. 

Intra-day profit is my foundation and bread and butter. Position trades are something I see great merit in. But I need to think about those 100-200 trades a little more because those moves are so frequent. 


But you are correct. 
Position trades are on a different time frame. 
Position trades frequently get taken. 
But when they take off, the profit is enormous. 


And yes. This is a business. 
I need to put it into perspective. 
Sometimes luck doesn't go my way even if I do things right. 

Even if I finish the week with $1,700, if I averaged that per week it's almost $90,000 for the year. 
All good. 
Consistency. Build slowly. Big weeks will come. Don't despise a week like this. Ensure losses are minimised. Stick to plan.


----------



## tech/a

Expecting everything to come off pretty hard from here!
DAX short 9818 ---- Current Stop 9872


----------



## pavilion103

tech/a said:


> Expecting everything to come off pretty hard from here!
> DAX short 9818 ---- Current Stop 9872




I'm getting a similar gut feel actually


----------



## CanOz

Yeah, looks like a bit of a slide, but don't forget its NFP night....Not a good night to try and hang onto a position trade so heads up!


----------



## tech/a

Out 04
Not waiting around.

Taking your advice Can


----------



## pavilion103

hmm... I've got no idea of exactly what impact the NFP has. 

I am holding my original trade at BE.

I took 2 more tonight @6504. 

Had intended to leave them and check before tomorrow morning. 

It seems that wisdom says there is a lot of uncertainty with the NFP to come out. 


Tonight I had multiple low risk attempts to get trades at this crucial point on the daily. 

I was down 25 points trying to do so. 

I've now taken one position off (because of NFP) and I'm breakeven for the night. 


I have 2 running. 

1 with the original stop

1 with the stop at BE tonight. 


I think with the uncertainty I best at least get myself to BE for the night.


----------



## pavilion103

Tonight was a really god experience for me. 

I've realised more and more that if you have the context for the day right, and you are patient, you can get good limit order entries for 3-5 points risk in good spots. Even if you get taken you can get back in again if the opportunity presents because entry is cheap.

I feel like I've traded incredibly well this week (just not the results ). 


Interested to see what happens tonight. 

6460 is a bit of a resistance level on the FTSE anyway so always expected a pause around here. 
NFP will be interesting. I'm guessing it can move the market around a lot and take out stops.


----------



## pavilion103

Just lifted one of my remaining two for 90 points.

Will leave the original position trade as planned!


Grrrr!!! That third one would have been nice!


----------



## pavilion103

Good result.

Glad to finish the week with some good profit.


Anyone else who wants to post up trades/ charts feel free to.

Did people have a good week?

Where do people see it going from here?

I'll post up some more stuff tody or tomorow


----------



## pavilion103

This is my own private analysis that I do each night and save to my files. 

Happy to provide this if it is beneficial and generates some discussion. 

Note with this type of entry:
1) Price WILL usually push down to re-test the top of the "base". 
2) It will often take out the price where the most obvious long entry was. 
3) It is IMPERATIVE to get on the long ASAP. Early identification and aggressive entry will often ensure that you are kept in the trade rather than being taken out at BE. Don't be reckless and pre-empt anything, but when ample confirmation is there ACT IMMEDIATELY. 
4) The push down to the top of the base is actually a decent place for a re-entry. Don't be scared by the falling price action. It is slugglish and is quite different from what would be expected if there was a sharp fall ahead.


----------



## pavilion103

This is last night's entry. 

Analysis on the chart. 

So much to consider here.


----------



## pavilion103

My position trade. 

Up just over 110 at present. 

Will be looking to add if it doesn't get taken out. 

High RR area for a short IMO. 
Not saying it WILL go lower, but looks like the type of place I'd want to get on in case it does.


----------



## pavilion103

Not sure if I will post profits every week but I've posted pretty much my whole week's journey so I will this time. 

Up around $2,700. 
Position trade also around $2,100 open profit. 

It shows what an up and down week it can be. 

From all I've posted you can see I could have been up over $10,000 had things gone my way. 
Had I not got on those shorts last night and I taken a loss for the night I could have been on as little as $500 for the week. 

So pretty much anything on offer from $500-10,000 for me. Up $4,800 (including open profit which could vanish). Right in the middle of that range. Not too bad.


----------



## pavilion103

Also I'm not sure if people have picked up in my posting that I've begun to take more low-risk (in terms of initial points risk) limit orders in tight consolidation areas. 

Tech gave me some really good perspective in a conversation a few weeks back. 
It centred on trading the 1 minute chart; identifying low risk opportunities; and looking at volume and how price reacted following volume. 

Some very good insights.


----------



## tech/a

Excellent charts PAV
Clear setups and a strong bias toward reading 
Past and present chart and pattern formation.
Look a lot like mine--- we both see similar yet we can both see
Different opportunities within the same chart and same context.


----------



## payday

Thank you pav for the excellent overview of your trades. Very clear and concise description and great examples of objective entries and also how you manage the trades. Your growth in trading is astounding. Now to the next phase which I am sure will be soon, and that is to manage larger positions. No reason why you can't as long as you stay focussed and objective as you have already shown you can.


----------



## pavilion103

payday said:


> Thank you pav for the excellent overview of your trades. Very clear and concise description and great examples of objective entries and also how you manage the trades. Your growth in trading is astounding. Now to the next phase which I am sure will be soon, and that is to manage larger positions. No reason why you can't as long as you stay focussed and objective as you have already shown you can.




Appreciate your feedback and interest in the thread. 

Size is something I have been thinking about. 
Given that the downside is being managed quite well there is no reason why another contract can't be added in good spots.
It changes perspective a lot.
All of a sudden a reasonable night of 40 point move is magnified - x3 becomes $2,300. The money starts to get big. 
If one of these is left to run could be even more. 


How much I let trades run and take profit will also be dependent upon objectives. 
I set myself a goal at the start of 2011 and that was to be able to make a living from trading by 1st Jan 2016.

If I make $50,000-60,000 this year in trading (almost my salary - $65,000), I intend to apply for 1 year leave without pay from work (which might be an available option) and see if I can support myself in 2016 by trading. 
The safety net will be there that I could go back at any time (even after a couple of months if I choose). There is basically zero risk. This follows me having cut back to 4 days in 2014.  

I intend to make more than the above amount, but I will need to get to that checkpoint first. I have lacked consistency in the past, but I feel I am able to achieve consistency now. This is a lot of the reason why I am posting so much on here. To keep accountable. 

Interesting year ahead.


----------



## pavilion103

I feel bad talking about myself to much. I know I started this thread as my transition into futures trading but anyone else feel free to post. Trades, objectives, goals, dreams, thoughts..... whatever. 

I know many may not be as willing to divulge the personal information I have, however I think that this is a great place to discuss whatever we want in relation to futures trading and our ambitions, victories and struggles.


----------



## debtfree

Once again thanks Pav for your charts and explanation of your trades, I get a lot out of them and they are helping me.

I get the feeling there are a lot of people watching and learning on the sidelines and not posting so don't feel bad about talking about yourself, please carry on.


----------



## IFocus

171,000 plus views, you are an inspiration to a lot of people here Pav thanks for your posting


----------



## pavilion103

Some of my struggles....

My mind can become obsessive with analysis. I find the best times for me are when I set the trade in the first hour, trail and leave it. If I stare at the screen needlessly is consumes my mind before bed and I find myself keep checking it and analysing things in my head before bed. I often wake up in the middle of the night because of this, check the trade and have bad sleep, waking up tired. If I stop looking at it from 6-7pm (when the market opens earlier in winter), I find I can sleep and forget about it, but if it's 9pm or 10pm and I'm still checking it will ruin my sleep. 

Last night with the NFP I was anxious to see what would happen. I woke up about 1am or 2am I reckon and was looking at it for about 20 minutes as it was falling. My mind races and I struggle to get back to sleep. Last night I actually exited (successfully) during this time. 

I find during the day the same issue with the SPI. I sit at work checking it and my mind starts analysing everything and it drains me. I keep refreshing emails, ASF and my IB app on the phone. 


Having the 2 weeks off over Christmas was brilliant and cleared my mind so much. 

This issue is more a habit than anything. If I just look at the trade for the first hour or so, place it, get it to BE and set alerts I'm fine. I go to bed, wake up and emotionally, I don't really care. But when I look at it for too long it consumes me at times. 


So balance is the key. The beauty of trading is you can literally make thousands in a night with little effort and no need to stress or think about it. You can go watch a movie, go for a walk and the job is done. So I need to think along these lines more often. 


I see this as simply a habit and it is one of my goals to work on. I don't think it's a major issue at the moment but more of an issue than I want it to be. I don't want to be waking up at 12, 2, 4 etc.


----------



## tech/a

PAV

I think we have all been there----those of us who trade O/N

I had a couple of questions that needed answering in my analysis
so set about getting the answers so I could be definitive with my own
trading---mind you when I'm asleep the market answers those questions without me!

So initially when deciding to take a trade.

(1) How long will this signal be valid?
(2) Are subsequent signals supporting my view.
(3) Are these signals during or prior to momentum.
(4) Are they clear---UN ambiguous.

Currently I have found (without rigorous testing) that any two consecutive signals in one direction in a lower time-frame and one in a higher time-frame constitute a valid buy signal.
Two in the opposite direction and one in  higher time-frame invalidate a position or a setup.

Personally I like momentum as it gives me space to trade. There are often many signals confirming a trade direction before momentum starts.

(1) We can wait
(2) We can place a buy or sell stop order.

Or if in a trade set a stop 
OR if we have enough wiggle room set a stop to B/E 
OR set a trailing stop.

These are our only options (unless anyone can throw in another couple).

This is a chart I sent to Kris next morning with my own commentary on how it could have been played and what to look for. Maybe of interest to others. Read in conjunction with my post here earlier in the evening.



> tech/a
> Re: The transition to Futures trading
> 
> Expecting everything to come off pretty hard from here!
> DAX short 9818 ---- Current Stop 9872




*Click to expand*


----------



## pavilion103

Are we all thinking short. Re-test of Friday's levels or consolidation around here and fall?


----------



## tech/a

pavilion103 said:


> Are we all thinking short. Re-test of Friday's levels or consolidation around here and fall?




I'll tell you Tuesday


----------



## pavilion103

tech/a said:


> I'll tell you Tuesday




Yes. Agree. Important day tomorrow.


----------



## tech/a

pavilion103 said:


> Are we all thinking short. Re-test of Friday's levels or consolidation around here and fall?




Sorry about my flippancy!

I tend to agree.

Short or probably a flat start to the week.
No indication at this stage of a long signal.


----------



## pavilion103

Huge consolidation on SPI after open.

Interesting to see what this does.


----------



## pavilion103

A really good place on the daily for a short if it were to come off.

Short 5,400. Stop 5,407.

I find SPI more tricky than FTSE.

Very easy to drop $200.

A lot more limit entries than FTSE for me.


----------



## tech/a

Tonight's DAX as its playing out.(My view)

*Click to expand*


----------



## pavilion103

I was sitting pretty with a few contracts.

All out for close to BE. (Minus 3)

Short again at the high for one final attempt.

I've been all over the place. Always had the same goal in mind though.

10 points at risk here.

Hoping for a chance to move stop.



SPI down 9.5 for the day.


----------



## tech/a

DAX fell back at first resistance and now testing the second.


----------



## pavilion103

I've lifted one FTSE. Stuff it. It's battling a bit. 

I'm at least over BE for the night. 

Position trade running plus my other one. 

Worst case +1.5 pints haha. What an adventure tonight to get here. 


Thought I was laughing after that big down move with 3 on + SPI. 
Not to be tonight!


----------



## pavilion103

FTSE trade and SPI trade both kept in by 1 single tick!

1 x FTSE exited for 90 points at 6389.

1 x FTSE running - 6545

1 x SPI running - 5400


Would have just held the first FTSE one but with other contracts on I'd rather lift some profits. If it falls further now I'll still capture points through them.


----------



## tech/a

2.10 am PAV 

You've got it bad!


----------



## pavilion103

tech/a said:


> 2.10 am PAV
> 
> You've got it bad!




Haha. 

Got in 5 points from the top. Got out 5 points from the bottom. Take a photo of that one lol.

I woke up. I saw it smashing down on US open. Had to watch for 10 mins (lucky that's all it was this time).

Why is waking up so easy but getting back to sleep so difficult?!


----------



## pavilion103

Short 5342 this morning.
Stop to BE.

Not heaps confident but BE is good risk management.


----------



## pavilion103

Anyone in here who is more intune than me (not hard), have any thoughts on the week ahead of reporting?


----------



## ThingyMajiggy

Good to see the discussion and progress going strong in here guys, keep it up


----------



## tech/a

Not trading tonight.
Out to dinner.

Last night as expected.


----------



## pavilion103

Last night's final trade. 

I made a mistake this morning. I wasn't kept in by a tick. I looked at the chart wrong. It took off from the start. 

I took 2 contracts. No idea why I lifted one not long after for about 10 points. I think I was stupidly trying to get myself to BE for the day. Idiot. Cost myself 80 points!


----------



## pavilion103

My position trade FTSE


----------



## pavilion103

My position trade SPI


----------



## pavilion103

6400 crucial level. 

Let's see if it tests 6450. 

Hoping it doesn't go above that!


----------



## pavilion103

Down 15.
Probably a few more points than I should have been.

In one now at 6483.

Will only risk another 5. 
No easy night!


----------



## tech/a

PAV

I have some questions on your SPI trade.

What does your analysis tell you?
In which time frame?

*Click to Expand*


----------



## pavilion103

I'll take a look Tech this morning.

Some big errors last night. Market watching cost me.

I exited both position trades!! Broke my rules.

Had the sense to get back in the FTSE one pretty much where I exited it.

SPI one, not so fortunate 
I see it has smashed down.
Got in and out a couple of times. Very poor.

Screen watching is a killer. Leads to irrational decisions.


----------



## pavilion103

Tech, did you mean the volume was bullish? That it was holding at those levels and had to push up a bit like it did last night?

I wasnt quite sure if that's what you meant?


----------



## tech/a

pavilion103 said:


> Tech, did you mean the volume was bullish? That it was holding at those levels and had to push up a bit like it did last night?
> 
> I wasnt quite sure if that's what you meant?




Sorry PAV just saw this post.

Yes I did.
I haven't got any subsequent chart so cant see where it turned or how far it went.
But the up move wasn't finished when this chart was first posted.
Can you send me the rest?
In the same time frame?


----------



## pavilion103

tech/a said:


> Sorry PAV just saw this post.
> 
> Yes I did.
> I haven't got any subsequent chart so cant see where it turned or how far it went.
> But the up move wasn't finished when this chart was first posted.
> Can you send me the rest?
> In the same time frame?




Might not have time tonight as I'll be out but I will do it.

Interesting night ahead too.


----------



## pavilion103

Night off.

No setups anyway in first couple of hours.
Ranges wide.


----------



## tech/a

Still got that position trade PAV.


----------



## pavilion103

tech/a said:


> Still got that position trade PAV.




Yes short 6544.

SPI I shot myself closing the one at 5400.
Got on one yesterday at around 5350.
That level may still be under threat. 


General thoughts from here?


----------



## pavilion103

And does anyone know why the DAX is (relatively) so strong?


----------



## avion

pavilion103 said:


> And does anyone know why the DAX is (relatively) so strong?




Didn't have something to do with European courts ruling in favor of QE...

Or was that yesterday news, not sure...


----------



## pavilion103

avion said:


> Didn't have something to do with European courts ruling in favor of QE...
> 
> Or was that yesterday news, not sure...




Yeh that is what I was thinking. 

I saw the article and thought that must have been it last night.


----------



## pavilion103

Lifted the SPI for 65 points. 

Although I think there is a strong chance my stop could hold, it is not in a good technical place. If I had it at the top I would continue to hold. 

I still have 1 FTSE which I am not touching under any circumstances. 

Guaranteed and consistent profit is the key for me. 
I don't need to make $300,000. I need to make consistent profit of $1,000-$2,000 per week.


----------



## tech/a

pavilion103 said:


> Lifted the SPI for 65 points.
> 
> Although I think there is a strong chance my stop could hold, it is not in a good technical place. If I had it at the top I would continue to hold.
> 
> I still have 1 FTSE which I am not touching under any circumstances.
> 
> Guaranteed and consistent profit is the key for me.
> I don't need to make $300,000. I need to make consistent profit of $1,000-$2,000 per week.




Fair enough.


----------



## ThingyMajiggy

pavilion103 said:


> Lifted the SPI for 65 points.
> 
> Although I think there is a strong chance my stop could hold, it is not in a good technical place. If I had it at the top I would continue to hold.
> 
> I still have 1 FTSE which I am not touching under any circumstances.
> 
> Guaranteed and consistent profit is the key for me.
> I don't need to make $300,000. I need to make consistent profit of $1,000-$2,000 per week.




65 points on the SPI, great stuff, sounds like you're killing it. What's your win %? What would you say is your "method" of trading, seems to be like trading around the right areas and using a bit of volume/VSA? 

Keep it up


----------



## pavilion103

ThingyMajiggy said:


> 65 points on the SPI, great stuff, sounds like you're killing it. What's your win %? What would you say is your "method" of trading, seems to be like trading around the right areas and using a bit of volume/VSA?
> 
> Keep it up




I find the SPI quite challenging to be honest. I think it's a lot more unforgiving than the FTSE. I find myself getting chopped much more. Best to wait for very good setups, whereas with the FTSE I can take more risks that pay off. 

I have actually decided to pull back from the SPI because of my time availability. Trading as often as I am is a little too demanding right now. I think possibly taking position trades in very good spots could still be an option but too much effort day to day right now, even if it is profitable. 

I don't record my winning % per trade. I simply record my profit/loss at the end of each day. 
A usual distribution for the SPI for me would be probabably between two and three 5-8 point losses per every 30 point win. So not quite as rapid profits at the FTSE. Having said that I don't trade the SPI every single day. It has taught me one thing: How to take limit orders, which is necessary because breakouts are too wide on the SPI and often get chopped.  

VSA yes. Price action with some volume analysis also. Mainly basic trading off support and resistance and seeing how price and volume react around these areas. Entering in good RR spots, limiting losses and trading with positive expectancy.


----------



## John Swift

Pav, are you a full-time trader now? I notice the title of the thread is "transition to futures trading"... is that transition complete? Just curious.


----------



## pavilion103

Short 1 x position trade

Plus 2 more

1 @ 6403
1 @ 6396

Since I wrote up the chart price has smashed down. 
Exited one for 65 points @ 6336. 

Other 2 to run over night.


----------



## pavilion103

John Swift said:


> Pav, are you a full-time trader now? I notice the title of the thread is "transition to futures trading"... is that transition complete? Just curious.




Not yet mate. 

See a couple of pages back, I discuss this a bit.


----------



## pavilion103

Exited the 2nd @ 6249

WOW!!!!!!!


----------



## pavilion103

200 points profit locked in for the night. 

Position trade up 270. 

Almost added a 4th contract tonight for 6 point risk in the triangle consolidation after the initial break  how amazing that would have been. 

Wish I had held the first an extra literally 15 mins too! But I'm fine with that decision. 

Only the 1 running now!


----------



## pavilion103

My exits.


----------



## tech/a

pavilion103 said:


> My exits.
> 
> View attachment 61138




Matt 
Thats an excellent trade.
Perfect reading of price action 
AND it reacted exactly as you expected
Doesn't get better than that.

Reaping the payoff off your time spent on education.


----------



## pavilion103

Thanks mate.
You've seen my journey.
Good to get some reward.


Anyone else on tonight?

Many trading the markets at night?


----------



## Lamb

pavilion103 said:


> Thanks mate.
> You've seen my journey.
> Good to get some reward.
> 
> 
> Anyone else on tonight?
> 
> Many trading the markets at night?




It's been an interesting night for sure. Covered short at around 9833...right before the sell off...

I flipped though and bought a bunch on that move. Market has been a hard read recently, so will babysit this package. Will see PA at US open.


----------



## CanOz

Nice news trade Pav!



> 5:17aSwiss franc rises sharply after central bank removes euro cap
> 5:05aStock futures deepen losses; DJIA futures off 90 points, or 0.5%, to 17,275
> 5:00a[XX:SXXP] Stoxx Europe 600 swings back up, rallies 4% after Swiss National Bank action
> 4:55a[CHFUSD] Swiss franc jumps 31% to $1.2888 after Swiss National Bank action
> 4:54a[XX:SXXP] Stoxx Europe 600 down 1.7%, erasing earlier gain
> 4:53a[XX:SXXP] European stocks slump after Swiss National Bank action
> 4:52aStock futures erase gains, turn lower as SNB announces negative interest rates


----------



## barney

CanOz said:


> Nice news trade Pav!




The "interesting" thing is the emergency announcement from the Swiss National Bank was not scheduled so anyone holding Longs on the USDCHF (and there were obviously plenty) got slaughtered.  Dodgy behaviour by the SNB!

The two charts are DAILY charts. Imagine the amount of Accounts which were wiped in a matter of seconds!


----------



## CanOz

That's dirty!! I wondered about the timing....looked off a bit.


----------



## cynic

pavilion103 said:


> ...
> Anyone else on tonight?
> 
> Many trading the markets at night?




I certainly was.

I had the immense delight of being informed by my CFD provider that my limit orders to buy their Germany 30 June 15 weren't filled - apparently they missed the bottom of that particular move by a mere 8 points!!!

Can anybody here confirm whether or not the actual June 15 DAX futures penetrated 9597 (I have to allow 3 points on account of a 6 point spread)?


----------



## tech/a

cynic said:


> I certainly was.
> 
> I had the immense delight of being informed by my CFD provider that my limit orders to buy their Germany 30 June 15 weren't filled - apparently they missed the bottom of that particular move by a mere 8 points!!!
> 
> Can anybody here confirm whether or not the actual June 15 DAX futures penetrated 9597 (I have to allow 3 points on account of a 6 point spread)?




Not even close 

Why don't you trade the current contract?
That would have been filled.
Enclosed is both charts.

*Click to expand*

*JUNE*




*MARCH*


----------



## cynic

Thanks for that Tech/A. After seeing what happened on the Cash and the March futures I was beginning to have doubts about my CFD provider. The chart you provided has thankfully allayed that concern. 

My reason for choosing the June contract was influenced by its correlation with another instrument with June expiry that I happen to be trading concurrently with DAX futures. 

The 400 points of missed profit, on this occasion, certainly warrants a revision to my approach. It seems that trading the current quarter with a view to rolling forward at expiry may have merit as it would certainly have proved more rewarding.


----------



## kid hustlr

incredible night. don't think ive ever seen that on the ftse before.

march/june contracts don't trade tick for tick (cost of carry, premium etc etc) but the question still stand of why trade an illiquid contract? spreading of some type I assume?


----------



## cynic

kid hustlr said:


> incredible night. don't think ive ever seen that on the ftse before.
> 
> march/june contracts don't trade tick for tick (cost of carry, premium etc etc) but the question still stand of why trade an illiquid contract? spreading of some type I assume?




Yes! You assumed correctly. Apart from the carry costs, I'd previously assumed that, despite the lower liquidity, the outer contract would still be pulled roughly into step through arbitrage. Last night has revealed that this is not always the case.


----------



## VSntchr

Some wild moves overnight and as Tech/a said, Pav, excellent job. That trading shows your VSA analysis very clearly.


----------



## CanOz

Liquidity in many markets dried up last night around the time of the SNB announcement. As mentioned in another threads many brokers are not around anymore today after last nights move....nor are a few traders....allot could not get out even with their stops as there simply was no liquidity.


----------



## pavilion103

The main dilema for me was my psition trade. 

When the market smashes down so hard I want to take the big profit. At the same time I figure it would take a lot to then turn around and take out the highs. I'm only in by about 110 points now and with current volatility that isn't much. 

Given my target was 6150-6200. Maybe lifting at 6240 like I did my other one would have been smart given 50-100 points to gain and 300 to give back. However, my thinking was that things look dire and it could go further. It's always a dilema but just need to make decisions after analysing each day and stick to them. 

DOW still looks very weak. That's the other consideration for me. 

Interesting. 

But one decent push up and I'm gone. 
Some resistance above which is good. 
Hoping for a down night from the open!


----------



## tech/a

pavilion103 said:


> The main dilema for me was my psition trade.
> 
> When the market smashes down so hard I want to take the big profit. At the same time I figure it would take a lot to then turn around and take out the highs. I'm only in by about 110 points now and with current volatility that isn't much.
> 
> Given my target was 6150-6200. Maybe lifting at 6240 like I did my other one would have been smart given 50-100 points to gain and 300 to give back. However, my thinking was that things look dire and it could go further. It's always a dilema but just need to make decisions after analysing each day and stick to them.
> 
> DOW still looks very weak. That's the other consideration for me.
> 
> Interesting.
> 
> But one decent push up and I'm gone.
> Some resistance above which is good.
> Hoping for a down night from the open!




PAV

You witnessed an *OUTLIER.*
Not the sort of price action you generally see.
You should incorporate a plan for outliers and if your lucky enough to be at the screen then
buying back at low levels if you see them and can get off in that instance is great trading!

Your thinking has to be around the outlier and its effects on the market your trading.

The market is being influenced by a rare event--- so a standard position and understanding of
what's happening around that position is at best tenable.

*Easy in hindsight*


----------



## pavilion103

tech/a said:


> PAV
> 
> You witnessed an *OUTLIER.*
> Not the sort of price action you generally see.
> You should incorporate a plan for outliers and if your lucky enough to be at the screen then
> buying back at low levels if you see them and can get off in that instance is great trading!
> 
> Your thinking has to be around the outlier and its effects on the market your trading.
> 
> The market is being influenced by a rare event--- so a standard position and understanding of
> what's happening around that position is at best tenable.
> 
> *Easy in hindsight*




Well yes. This is exactly the point. 
I have no plan for an outlier. 
Probably instinct was to get out. Original plan was to stay in. I didn't want to break my rules. But I didn't have a plan for outliers whereby exiting is an exception to my initial rule. 

I think given my time again (not just in hindsight but in future instances), I'd exit. A bird in the hand......

But I can't be upset that I followed my plan. My own ignorance and lack of consideration of such outliers lead to confusion. I was forced to process information in real time rather than having a default decision incorporated into my plan. 


Happy to close out 200 points. 
At least I wasn't stupid enough to just leave them all and end up with nothing.
I had a clear idea of how I would trade intra-day positions in the case of an outlier. EXIT at the first sign of the down move ehalting and reversing. I got a great exit right near the low. 
Calm enough to let it run down. 
Smart enough to get out at the first sign of this halting.  

Let's see what happens tonight.


----------



## tech/a

Outliers can come in all sorts of timeframes
The GFC lasted weeks.


----------



## pavilion103

tech/a said:


> Outliers can come in all sorts of timeframes
> The GFC lasted weeks.




How do you recommend someone like me deal with various outliers? Or at least how to approach developing an approach?


----------



## pavilion103

DOW futures down 150 at the moment.

SPI in a decent down move today.


----------



## CanOz

tech/a said:


> PAV
> 
> You witnessed an *OUTLIER.*
> Not the sort of price action you generally see.
> You should incorporate a plan for outliers and if your lucky enough to be at the screen then
> buying back at low levels if you see them and can get off in that instance is great trading!
> 
> Your thinking has to be around the outlier and its effects on the market your trading.
> 
> The market is being influenced by a rare event--- so a standard position and understanding of
> what's happening around that position is at best tenable.
> 
> *Easy in hindsight*




That "outlier" is turning into a black swan, fxcm is in trouble now too.


----------



## cynic

CanOz said:


> That "outlier" is turning into a black swan, fxcm is in trouble now too.





I recently received the following advice in a pop up message on one of my forex accounts:  

"...would like to notify you that margin requirements for CHF Pairs will be adjusted immediately due to recent price changes. Please Check your..."

It appears that misery does indeed like company:

http://www.wsj.com/articles/swiss-franc-move-cripples-currency-brokers-1421371654

I was rather surprised by the comment about one broker forgiving negative client balances and am wondering whether that might be pursuant to specialized contractual agreements (i.e. guaranteed stop losses etc.).


----------



## pavilion103

This is just not behaving as expected. 
My position trade has already come up once and had a failed test. 
This is the second rise and is weird action. 
I'm moving my stop to the high of today to lock in around 100 points. All handy towards my goal of $50,000 this year. 
If it falls over night I will attempt to get back on early next week. 

One of my rules is that if it doesn't act as expected get out. I've had a balance of leaving it and now locking in some good profit.


----------



## pavilion103

SPI setup today. 
Example of a limit order after a re-test + consolidation

Literally turned it on for 5 mins and this came up. No intention of taking a trade today. 

Lifted for 30 points. No waiting around.


----------



## pavilion103

I've been very open with my journey. I have wanted to give a unique experience on a form for people to see day-to-day how I have transitioned from a futures trader beginner to being profitable. I have discussed strategies, setups, mistakes etc. 

For the first time I want to give a peak into my analysis at the end of the week. My spreadsheets are much more detailed and record other information/charts/breakdown of markets but this is a bit of a summary. This is a peek into how I like to analyse things at the end of the week. 

*Note these results are with the assumption that my FTSE position trade will be taken out overnight at 6,450 where my stop is. 

This has saved me doing the analysis over the weekend. I can forget about trading totally for 2 days 


This week gone is my biggest every profit week. Closely beating my previous best. 

After a good start to the year well above my profit target (and expectations), the goal is to remain focused and stick to the $50,000 profit target, not chase the stars. Maybe in doing so I will reach them anyway. 
At this stage locking in a $1,000-$2,000 at a time is very much the priority rather than risking it to make more on trades (unless a pre-identified position trade).


----------



## peter2

Nicely done, Pav. Do you think you would have accomplished this much if you hadn't blogged your progress from the start? 

Would you encourage others to do something similar? 

ps: I'd keep the lines but get rid of the projected figure. My biggest losses have come soon after my biggest wins.


----------



## pavilion103

peter2 said:


> Nicely done, Pav. Do you think you would have accomplished this much if you hadn't blogged your progress from the start?
> 
> Would you encourage others to do something similar?
> 
> ps: I'd keep the lines but get rid of the projected figure. My biggest losses have come soon after my biggest wins.




I agree. Projected figure is stupid at this stage. Really is a meaningless exercise right now. Even an average is only useful with a good sample size. 
I dont intend to post results like this up again in the foreseeable future. This is just a look into what I'm doing in terms of some end of week analysis. Given that I've been so active the last 2 weeks I figure everyone has seen how I'm doing so no harm. I'll be keeping results more private now. 

Blogging - for me this has just been a fun part of the journey. I don't think it has had a major impact in my success. I'm passionate and this is an outlet to share things with like-minded people. So I wouldn't necessarily say yes or no for others to. Personal preference IMO. It might put too much pressure on some. 

But certainly it's had a positive impact and I have taken ideas on board with feedback.


What I would encourage others to do is find a good mentor. 
Tech has helped me tremendously from the start until I could stand on my own feet.
He has fast tracked my development so fast that I cannot express.
Charts, comments, emails.
Apart from diligent study and commitment THAT has been the major factor in my progress.


----------



## pavilion103

For those who don't know... US public holiday tomorrow.


----------



## tech/a

pavilion103 said:


> For those who don't know... US public holiday tomorrow.




Great I'll nick over there and get a day off!


----------



## ThingyMajiggy

pavilion103 said:


> I agree. Projected figure is stupid at this stage. Really is a meaningless exercise right now. Even an average is only useful with a good sample size.
> I dont intend to post results like this up again in the foreseeable future. This is just a look into what I'm doing in terms of some end of week analysis. Given that I've been so active the last 2 weeks I figure everyone has seen how I'm doing so no harm. I'll be keeping results more private now.
> 
> Blogging - for me this has just been a fun part of the journey. I don't think it has had a major impact in my success. I'm passionate and this is an outlet to share things with like-minded people. So I wouldn't necessarily say yes or no for others to. Personal preference IMO. It might put too much pressure on some.
> 
> But certainly it's had a positive impact and I have taken ideas on board with feedback.
> 
> 
> What I would encourage others to do is find a good mentor.
> Tech has helped me tremendously from the start until I could stand on my own feet.
> He has fast tracked my development so fast that I cannot express.
> Charts, comments, emails.
> Apart from diligent study and commitment THAT has been the major factor in my progress.




Nice spreadsheet pav, is that automatically done or do you add in all your trades at the end of the day/session? 

The mentor thing must be a huge help, especially from traders that are actually making money themselves. Tech is great with his help, as is TH. Wish I could get more from them, but don't want to bother them too much, plus need to put some effort in and do the hard yards yourself to put into practice what they're passing on etc. Screen time screen time screen time!


----------



## pavilion103

ThingyMajiggy said:


> Nice spreadsheet pav, is that automatically done or do you add in all your trades at the end of the day/session?
> 
> The mentor thing must be a huge help, especially from traders that are actually making money themselves. Tech is great with his help, as is TH. Wish I could get more from them, but don't want to bother them too much, plus need to put some effort in and do the hard yards yourself to put into practice what they're passing on etc. Screen time screen time screen time!




With the sheets, all I enter is my total net points at the end of each day and the rest automatically calculated. I've put formulas in the cells and linked them together.


----------



## pavilion103

This week.....

We have seen some strength towards the end of the week, however we are still at resistance and until it's taken out I am unable to be confident to the long side. The past 2 weeks I have been confident in the immediate direction and was aggressive and capitalised. In my mind now I am taking a pause and waiting for further information to re-assess. If the high is clearly rejected then I will look to get back in to the short side. I am not really wanting to trade too much while I am unsure. Monday I will take a look, but I won't be trying to hit home runs. 

I'm also entering an interesting period of the year. Like last year I am doing my Bible course and the times are Monday 6:30-9:30, Tuesday 6:30-9:30 and Wednesday's during the day. This commences in 2 weeks. So effectively for 2 months (until D/L savings changes) I will not be on at all on Monday's and Tuesdays. Given that I have other commitments at times too I will be trading 2-3 nights per week for 2 months during this time. It is my final year of study and just the price I have to pay this year. 

Keeping this in mind I will strongly consider the times when I can hold trades to capture moves when I am not at the screen. If I feel that those opportunities are there I may trade that way. It may also make me more interested in the SPI, where the hours suit me. 

Things to consider...


----------



## tech/a

DAX short 10197.
 If I get taken.


----------



## pavilion103

33 points on FTSE. 

Got on at the high. Low volume. US closed. 

No stuffing around 33 points is 33 points. Lock it in Eddie. 
Tomorrow I can look for a bigger move.


----------



## tech/a

pavilion103 said:


> 33 points on FTSE.
> 
> Got on at the high. Low volume. US closed.
> 
> No stuffing around 33 points is 33 points. Lock it in Eddie.
> Tomorrow I can look for a bigger move.




Yeh arrived late to the party.
Dead 
Cancel order back to cricket.
Nice little trade PAV


----------



## subterfuge

pavilion103 said:


> 33 points on FTSE.
> 
> Got on at the high. Low volume. US closed.
> 
> No stuffing around 33 points is 33 points. Lock it in Eddie.
> Tomorrow I can look for a bigger move.




Could you calls some trades in realtime instead?
Would be cool to watch someone who can actually make money consistently in action!


----------



## pavilion103

subterfuge said:


> Could you calls some trades in realtime instead?
> Would be cool to watch someone who can actually make money consistently in action!




You haven't seen me posting charts in real time right at the start of my trades?

You haven't seen me post my entries before within a few minutes of entering?

You haven't seen me comment at price is setting up? 

You haven't seen me identify important levels day after day which are the exact ones I end up trading off of and making good profits?

If you want I can give you my home address and you can come and sit at my desk and watch me :?


----------



## pavilion103

But in all seriousness it is cool to see live trading. 

I'm on Skype with kidhustler most nights so he sees pretty much all my calls in real time. 

Online chat is much easier for quick real time posting. 

I guess when price is setting up I'm so intently watching the screen and requires attention. A few minutes after I've taken it, I can relax a little, do up a chart and post it. 

I've tried a bigger online chat, but if people are trading with different methodologies it is confusing. We are all looking for different things. 

I'll see if we can improve the experience of this thread further. 


Also realise that the amounts of profit that I post are a summary or net position. 
The charts that I post are either the good trades or bad mistakes. 
All profit figures posted at net. 
So with a 33 point win last night, that might include losing 5 on open, taking a 15 point trade, losing another 5 on another attempt and then getting a 23 point win. Etc....
So I'm not posting every trade or nailing every trade. But the wins are very small and the profits often large. 

The ones I post are there for practical help of the people in this thread. 
It identifes the context, the setup, the levels, the trailing stop. 
This is the most beneficial way to post I think. 

We'll see how I go!


----------



## pavilion103

Terrible trading tonight.

Down 28 if I get taken on my current trade.

Wanted to get a position trade on a false break.

Took stupid risks with no setups.

Last nights profit gone!


----------



## tech/a

In this trade now stop now at B/E

Took a while to mark up.

*Click to expand
DAX 3 min*


----------



## tech/a

*Done*


26 ticks X 25Euro X $1.40 + $910 in 18 min.

Click to expand





Now looking for a long setup.

*BAAAAHH* Too slow too busy typing!!!
Looking Short again.


----------



## tech/a

*DAX 1* Min Chart Common setup and it has played out.
Quicker than I can mark up.
But the picks are taken as it happens and Finished




*So Trade was completed.*




Not quick enough for another return trade!
Would have it at B/E now its at 75
Looks weak Buy 69--But missed.
That one stopped 2 ticks shy.No Damage.

Enough From me a good night and short--excellent.



> Could you calls some trades in real time instead?
> Would be cool to watch someone who can actually make money consistently in action!




Hope this helped a bit.

The most important trade was in my view the last one.
Quick trade no damage---very hard off a 1 min chart.
This is what traders need to do take care of *RISK!*

*In out---win--lose---minimal risk--decisive.*


----------



## pavilion103

Edited


----------



## Wysiwyg

tech/a said:


> *Done*
> 
> 26 ticks X 25Euro X $1.40 + $910 in 18 min.




Hey Tech/A I got a question. Can you show a losing trade when you have one please?


----------



## pavilion103

Done for the night.
14 down.
Damage limitation in the end.

Traded terribly.


----------



## tech/a

Wysiwyg said:


> Hey Tech/A I got a question. Can you show a losing trade when you have one please?




For me losers occur when I'm wrong right off the get go.

If I can get it to B/E then my risk is negated.
Have lots of B/E trades like the one tonight.

They play out as they play out.
You'll see it when I post up a trade and it fails.

There are a few on this thread I'm sure.

Why do you want to see a loser?


----------



## Wysiwyg

tech/a said:


> For me losers occur when I'm wrong right off the get go.



That trade you showed when price broke below the triangle. Your entry was at 10296 on the high of the next bar. Then the next bar (the one after your entry) went to or near 10300 so you were wrong for a bit there but obviously your stop loss is greater. The bar that went to 10300 appears to have hit the triangle support line.

What was your reasoning to exit at 10270? At possible support?


----------



## tech/a

Yes stop was shown at 308

The pattern is a setup for a short term trade.
I don't set a B/E until the pattern is cleared
or in some cases the bar that triggered the trade.

A 3 min setup isn't going to last long. Tonight is
a swing traders paradise. Its gone dead now.

Your correct about the target and I select round
numbers because they usually get taken out.

FTSE and DAX
Open Dow open and Close 
I get to trade open and very rarely close.


----------



## tech/a

Will be long 10200 if taken
Will post chart when I can

----Done

Stop 193
Back soon.

DAX


----------



## tech/a

Firstly this shows the setup on support best.

Ill show the 3 min time frame in a minute when I write it up.

*CLICK TO EXPAND*


----------



## tech/a

Things happening faster than I can type 
Just exited and will post that when I mark up.

Played out as expected with the second exit plan happening at
the 245 area.

*Click to Expand*


----------



## tech/a

And this is why I closed.





That's it for tonight.
24 min trade time tonight.

At the screen about 40 min.


----------



## tech/a

This is the current chart

What do you think going forward?


----------



## pavilion103

Uneventful for me. The whole week is at BE.

These conditions don't suit me. I need to be clearer on the trend for the following days/weeks. A good time for me to relax as I have this week.

DAX is more profitable with this shorter term stuff. FTSE not worth the risk IMO.

Will reassess following QE stuff.

With a $50,000 target and $10,000+ in 2 weeks I will prefer to strike when the iron is hot and enjoy other tbings when it isn't!


----------



## tech/a

Wysiwyg said:


> Hey Tech/A I got a question. Can you show a losing trade when you have one please?




This could be one Wysy
But I'm confident enough to at least place it.
Not happy with the initial risk but provided the volume stays as low as it is in this pattern (Chart 2) I'm happy--ish





Here is the emerging pattern


----------



## pavilion103

Thought the same thing. 
Down 15 for the night. 
QE will be interesting. Won't impact me. No trades on. 

Net for the week = -$375


----------



## tech/a

OK Bed
Set buy stop to 10256
Stop at 91

Didn't get to B/E so shortened target.

Night all.


----------



## tech/a

Needles to say I was stopped.
Taking a long term position from a 2 min chart is a little crazy!   


Click to Expand


----------



## pavilion103

Optimistic. Low percentage. But not silly.
I've nailed 1 min chart entries at the low before and they've held for 2-3 days!

But this chart from yesterday is so typical. Always easier in hindsight. 
Only a stop at the low or within a few ticks of the low holds.
This gets tested so often. 
One of my entries was 77,71 long which was exited at around BE.
When I took it I knew I was hoping a bit and that it would come back. I left my stop at 73 which was below another bar. Alternatively I could have reentered. 
But they love taking out a good setup at the low.

Then it flies 100. It is just so typical. 
So often it pays (on these days) to get in right on open with a stop below the initial low. Just risk 5-6 points and leave the stop at the low.

Just some of my observations that I see so often!


----------



## pavilion103

For those more intelligent than me...

What does QE mean now?

Does it mean it will likely keep the market moving up in the medium term?

Will it be anythjng like the US


----------



## tech/a

pavilion103 said:


> For those more intelligent than me...
> 
> What does QE mean now?
> 
> Does it mean it will likely keep the market moving up in the medium term?
> 
> Will it be anythjng like the US




Generally short term positive.
Quantative easing just gives governments the licence to print money and pay their debts.
Which in turn increases public debt as they issue bonds to guarantee the money print.
Bonds have a rate which need to be paid and a revolving expiry date.

So in the end the short term gain adds to the long term pain.

Governments default and all hell breaks lose!


----------



## Trembling Hand

tech/a said:


> Needles to say I was stopped.
> Taking a long term position from a 2 min chart is a little crazy!




I'm very surprised that you thought holding a position through the announcement was anything but a stupid idea. Especially one that wasn't monitored.


----------



## tech/a

Trembling Hand said:


> I'm very surprised that you thought holding a position through the announcement was anything but a stupid idea. Especially one that wasn't monitored.




No it was always a stupid idea.
In hindsight its still stupid.


----------



## notting

From what I was hearing before the fact, alot of people had the same stupid idea.
Machines ate em up.
Watching to see if this Europhoria will have legs like the US QE did for the US.
What do they have over there any way apart from, Paris and Dyson vacuum cleaners?


----------



## Trembling Hand

tech/a said:


> No it was always a stupid idea.
> In hindsight its still stupid.




 Ballsy. It was exactly as flagged weeks ago yet it still whipped 100 points both ways pretty much instantaneously...... twice! Had there been something of a surprise.........


----------



## tech/a

Was taken out around 30 mins before the sweep.

Id like to know how many trades took the contracts.
IE 1970 contracts and X trades.
Then 5000 contracts for X trades.
Then 3700 odd
Who's getting set for what direction---long---I think.

As you say if something un predictable came out!
Plus positions below the sweep are set!--

Not that ballsey 1 contract.
50 contracts would be plain dumb not ballsey.

Anyway I was satisfying Wsys request.


----------



## pavilion103

Well hey like I said. Had you taken one within a few points of the low at the open and left the stop you'd be 100 up plus the potential for this to keep pushing up now. 5-6 points at risk not to stupid if the announcement had potential to move things.

I wasn't too far off!

Risking 20 points would be stupid IMO when anythjng can happen but 5-6 I can understand.


----------



## tech/a

NEXT


----------



## Trembling Hand

tech/a said:


> Id like to know how many trades took the contracts.
> IE 1970 contracts and X trades.
> Then 5000 contracts for X trades.
> Then 3700 odd
> Who's getting set for what direction---long---I think.




Not many. And probably was just a few minutes trade for "them". Those announcement sweeps are different to the good old days (pre 2007). They just used to be almighty sweeps in one direction a few seconds after the ann and then either keep on churning in the same direction or fade and relatively slowly roll back to mean, depending on the larger time frame set ups. Not any more!

They have turned into nasty whipsaws that give very little indication of the next 2-10 minutes let alone the rest of the day. I think it has turned in to an instant type trade for algo hedgies and prop who get set and just push and flip back then square off with the larger volume available now. 

Basically they used to be fun playing with good set ups beforehand. Now they are just widow makers. :evilburn:


----------



## Trembling Hand

pavilion103 said:


> Risking 20 points would be stupid IMO when anythjng can happen but 5-6 I can understand.




But Pav that is my point. If you think that your stops are worth anything in these announcements you will have some nasty days ahead. 

A stop of 5 points is just fantasy when there is news like this. You are talking 100 point blow outs if you are lucky. Ask the CHF traders whats possible and they will tell you that 1000s of ticks! Your stops are not what you think they are.


----------



## tech/a

Licence to print money if your big enough.
When volume on each side is low enough and the algo can work that out.
Sweep and set-- profit.


----------



## avion

How was Hokkaido TH?  (Have you done the trip...?)  :frosty:  Welcome back...


----------



## pavilion103

Trembling Hand said:


> But Pav that is my point. If you think that your stops are worth anything in these announcements you will have some nasty days ahead.
> 
> A stop of 5 points is just fantasy when there is news like this. You are talking 100 point blow outs if you are lucky. Ask the CHF traders whats possible and they will tell you that 1000s of ticks! Your stops are not what you think they are.




Ok I see your point.
That makes sense.

I didn't realise you could be so exposed. I thought maybe lose a few points but you reckon I could be taken out well below my stop?


----------



## tech/a

pavilion103 said:


> Ok I see your point.
> That makes sense.
> 
> I didn't realise you could be so exposed. I thought maybe lose a few points but you reckon I could be taken out well below my stop?




Yes can happen.
EG a small flush of 100 ticks below your stop when your executed.
No big deal if its 1 contract---but start multiplying until it hurts.
Then till you cant pay the call---actions over-----price is where ever it settles and your DONE!

thing is these aren't outliers they're orchestrated!


----------



## Trembling Hand

avion said:


> How was Hokkaido TH?  (Have you done the trip...?)  :frosty:  Welcome back...




Great as always. But I will be back there next week. Just taking a 1 week holiday from my holiday. Its tough being away for 4 months straight in paradise. 



pavilion103 said:


> Ok I see your point.
> That makes sense.
> 
> I didn't realise you could be so exposed. I thought maybe lose a few points but you reckon I could be taken out well below my stop?




Absolutely. If someone throws a 1000 lot 50-100 points away from the market(which is exactly what they do regularly in these ann) your stop will trigger and only be left with the next way way out orders in the order book.

But it can get even worst if you are not monitoring these trades. Since all the rule changes since the flash crash & GFC stop orders in most exchanges are actually not true 'at market' orders. The exchanges will only accept stops that are set for example 1% away from the trigger. So they are really limit orders. If the sweep goes past your limit price and doesn't return your stop is meaningless. If it keeps running you will wake up and find the market 2-6% past your worst case scenario. You guys really need to get your head around this with announcements and over night trading. Stops are fine in a normal market, useless in a smash up.


----------



## pavilion103

Do you mean that positions should never be held when you can't monitor them incase a large announcement/shock comes out?

In which case do you believe that positions should not be left running if I take one at the open and then go off somewhere?

Or positions shouldn't ever be held overnight?

Or just that positions shouldn't be held with pending major announcements coming out?

I'm ignorant in this area so would love your thoughts.


I noted that when the Swiss announcement came out it didn't have this impact, even though it did shock the market. Price fell quickly but still offered the chance to get out. 


Can you clarify all the above for me?

Thanks


----------



## Trembling Hand

pavilion103 said:


> Or just that positions shouldn't be held with pending major announcements coming out?




This one. 

But also you should trade with the idea that a disaster will happen to you trading sooner or later. In ways that you didn't think were possible. Being sloppy with pending major announcements will ensure you have more than your fair share of disasters.


----------



## pavilion103

Trembling Hand said:


> This one.
> 
> But also you should trade with the idea that a disaster will happen to you trading sooner or later. In ways that you didn't think were possible. Being sloppy with pending major announcements will ensure you have more than your fair share of disasters.




Ok that is good. 

I like to trade with as much certainty as possible in terms of context, setups etc. This is where I make my money. During weeks like this and with these sorts of announcements (for me) it just leads to confusion anyway. I don't want to be putting myself at risk of a catastrophic loss as well as bad trading due to uncertainty. 

In terms of a major disaster I'm not sure what to expect. If I lost 100 points out of no where it wouldn't be a huge deal. If I lost 400 it might be. If I lose 1,000 it would be.


----------



## VSntchr

Trembling Hand said:


> But also you should trade with the idea that a disaster will happen to you trading sooner or later. In ways that you didn't think were possible.




This is as terrifying as it is important to ponder..


----------



## tech/a

Hmmm
I don't know if its terrifying if your trading within means.

If I'm trading the DAX and there is an 800 tick shock once every 2 yrs 
That's $28K / Contract.
If I'm trading 1 and doing say $2000 a week on average That's handle able.

But as T/H says if I keep away from News then that should equate to one every 5 yrs.

Just think you look at it like any risk.
Try and quantify it. Other wise you'll be frozen by fear!


----------



## pavilion103

tech/a said:


> Hmmm
> I don't know if its terrifying if your trading within means.
> 
> If I'm trading the DAX and there is an 800 tick shock once every 2 yrs
> That's $28K / Contract.
> If I'm trading 1 and doing say $2000 a week on average That's handle able.
> 
> But as T/H says if I keep away from News then that should equate to one every 5 yrs.
> 
> Just think you look at it like any risk.
> Try and quantify it. Other wise you'll be frozen by fear!





That's right. 1 major shock in 5 years won't cripple you if you are trading within your means and making good consistent profit.

Taking all the necessary precautions (avoiding news) will also help as was said.

I made 10,000 in 2 weeks. If I lost that in a shock once every 5 years it wouldn't be disastrous.


----------



## barney

pavilion103 said:


> Taking all the necessary precautions (*avoiding news*) will also help as was said.





Just on avoiding news  ....... everyone who was decimated vs the CHF currency last week had the displeasure of having NO advertised NEWS announcement prior to the Swiss National Bank dropping their nuclear currency bomb on the market ...... so avoiding news is not always possible.

Interesting side issue to the above, considering the news announcement was not public knowledge, it was curious that George Soros took all his CHF Shorts out of the market just prior to the announcement hitting the wires Make your own mind up on that one

For those who didn't see the effect of the impromptu NEWS announcement, here are the two USD/CHF charts I posted earlier in the thread.  They should give any trader a cold shiver.

PS.  They are DAILY charts!


----------



## pavilion103

Some terrible erratic trading yesterday. Finished the week down around $700. 
Mentally I've crumbled this week. The result isn't disastrous but the way I've trade has been poor. 
Before I really attack the market I like to be clear about direction. 
I haven't been this week and I need things to consolidate a little now before I really go hard. 

$10,000 in 3 weeks is a good start. 
I need to pause. I need to realise I won't be making $5,000 per week. 
Slowly build with $1,000 at a time and I will also hit those big weeks in between. 
In the meantime limit losses. 
Losses I can handle, but ones from silly trades are unacceptable. 
Weekend. Refresh. New start next week!


----------



## CanOz

You'll have some bad weeks Pav, roll on....

Interesting discussion about the news risk....I was in the market during the CHF news, but short the CDN...I got stopped out on my trailing stop. A few days later I was in a GBP short the day of the EU QE news and I exited a couple of hours before the announcement. I could have hung onto that trade, but thought the markets might still be gittery on news and a little illiquid after the ann....it would have been ok it turns out and the trade is still working, but without me. That's ok, I'm still happy with my decision to remove the risk....

You can't manage return, you can only manage risk.

Cheers,


CanOz
Edit...both trades were from Nick's Power Setups, EOD patterns


----------



## pavilion103

35 points net profit.
Done for the night.
Wasn't expecting anything tonight. Bonus.


----------



## pavilion103

My night. 
2 good trades. 1 bad trade. 

Always good to get into the black on the first night of the week. 

Entry was good. Exit was good.


----------



## pavilion103

Given the initial 5 point loss. A little more open risk than I'd like. 

Could finish 11 down if this comes all the way back to 6784.


----------



## pavilion103

Closed out. 
8.9 down for the night. 
Not behaving as desired.


----------



## pavilion103

Utterly butchered tonight. 

Got a ripping entry right near the high of the day. 

For some stupid reason exited for 25 points. 

Threw away those 25 points in frustration. 

Ended up with nothing. 

So uncharacteristic. 

That is a hold every day of the week.


----------



## pavilion103

Either taking off for 50-60 points or holding as a position trade given I go back to study next week so will miss 2 trading days per week for the next 2 months.


----------



## pavilion103

Well I've shown the good. Only fair to show the bad. 
I'm actually very embarrassed to post this. 
This is as poor as I have ever traded the opening. I remember one similar that I posted in here last year. This is probably the equal worst I've ever done. 

Blew every rule in the book including: WAIT PATIENTLY... a setup WILL come... it always does. Well at least 95% of the time. So so silly from me tonight.


----------



## pavilion103

Subsequent trades.


----------



## pavilion103

also for work/life balance I've put the SPI on hold. 
I've removed it from my excel files.
I'll give a recap at the end of the week.

After 2 good weeks to start the year I've had 2 lackluster ones.


----------



## pavilion103

Just could not find a setup on open last night. 
Finally got on one around 6755 and then got out for no real reason. Had about 7 points at risk and didn't want to lose any more for the week. Disappointing.

Finished down just under 300 for the week.

Taking out my SPI stats I think that is about
1. 2,500
2. 6,000
3. -500
4. -300

Total just over 7,500 or so.
Avg $1,900

Good loss limitation but not a single big win in 2 weeks.

Wednesday night had I held and last night was the big chance too. 

This opens my eyes to how few big trades are actually needed to average good profit.

Even one night of 80+50 = 130 = $2,500 would have been nice. 
Need to be patient and realize that 1 or 2 good trades per week is more than enough.

Even just nailing 1 in the last 2 weeks would have gone a long way.

Patience. They will come.


----------



## tech/a

That they will


----------



## therooster74

pavilion103 said:


> Good loss limitation but not a single big win in 2 weeks.




Pav, firstly feel free to tell me to mind my own business as you dont know me. This is not a regular job - the pay cheques dont come slow and steady every week. Sometimes one waits a long time for the right opportunities and the secret is to still be in the game when they come. 

 I can see from your posts that you know this already but we can all do with a reminder sometimes. Or maybe its just me that KNOWS things and still trades on inferior thought patterns at times............. 

Regards




R


----------



## tech/a

Looking for short setup around here 10800 DAX
Will post charts soon.

Have one contract short at 10800 Stop 10803
May take a bit to get set as it pushes toward resistance.

*Click to expand*


----------



## tech/a

Set up Reasons and trade/stop.

*Click to expand*


----------



## tech/a

Was waiting for a pattern to add to this 
got it while I was doing this chart up.
But missed it as I wasn't on the book!

Was a ripper!


----------



## tech/a

Just got another at 10764 Not the best but ok for now.

Ill post up the missed opportunity and the one I'm on.
Ill mark up the chart now its on!!


----------



## tech/a

Exited BOTH contracts at 10740

Happy tonight 84 Ticks.
Night all.


*Click to expand*





You'll note that the three bars at the pivot (LOW)+ were heavy volume 
This indicated at least a short term reversal.
So when it came to test and failed that was enough for me.

To be clear
The one before the pivot
The pivot and the one after the test bar and exit are marked.


----------



## kid hustlr

Nice trading.

I assume you mean the initial entry was a limit sell?


----------



## tech/a

kid hustlr said:


> Nice trading.
> 
> I assume you mean the initial entry was a limit sell?




Yes sorry
The second was a sell at market.
Too much to do at once!


----------



## tech/a

Long tonight.
Missed the breakout--not at screen
But managed to get on the micro Pattern.




Stop at 14


----------



## tech/a

Update closed long now short
Nothing very convincing here.

*Click to expand*


----------



## tech/a

out at 42
now + 18
watching


----------



## tech/a

long 52 out of micro pattern
will post later.(chart)

*Chart*


----------



## pavilion103

Night of "what ifs" for me!

Finished up 35 points. 


Missed one on the top 6756 stop 6749. 
Only reason I didn't take it is because the gap "just" didn't fill. 
I'm so dirty about this because I was 100% set to take this if that gap had filled. Could have held this all night.

Took another 2 trades. One taken by 1 tick. Another taken by 2 ticks.

Could have easily been 100 points with 1 running. But will have to settle for 35. 

Gee that one on open is annoying because I was waiting for it and saw it!


----------



## tech/a

Out at 80 toppy and struggling.
Thats it for tonight.
28 + 18 for the night.


CLICK TO ENLARGE




*Night all*


----------



## tech/a

I was right Should have kept going!!


----------



## pavilion103

Good work again mate.


----------



## debtfree

Thanks Tech for a look at your trading as it is happening. 
Very good and very generous of you.


----------



## pavilion103

therooster74 said:


> Pav, firstly feel free to tell me to mind my own business as you dont know me. This is not a regular job - the pay cheques dont come slow and steady every week. Sometimes one waits a long time for the right opportunities and the secret is to still be in the game when they come.
> 
> I can see from your posts that you know this already but we can all do with a reminder sometimes. Or maybe its just me that KNOWS things and still trades on inferior thought patterns at times.............
> 
> Regards
> 
> 
> 
> 
> R





Yes a good reminder to have


----------



## tech/a

Haven't traded tonight.
But saw this 




No closes outside the pattern yet 
3 bars after I took this shot.


----------



## tech/a

Then this just got filled on the short.






Covered at 844 so 18 ticks.


----------



## pavilion103

I'm glad that Tech has contributed to this thread in recent weeks because I've been very quiet. I've had a boring few weeks. 

The truth is that I have traded quite poorly in a market which has not moved. Fortunately I've managed risk fairly well and got away without aggregate big losses. 

I start my course this week and I'll only be able to trade 3 nights a week for the next 7 weeks. 

After a roaring start to the year I sit on a profit (FTSE only) of around $7,000. My par profit for this point of the year is $4,500 so fortunately, due to my first two good weeks I am well ahead despite three weeks of small losses. 


Psychology is my big focus at the moment: taking fewer and better setups while leaving the rest alone. 
I have written up some notes which I might post during the week. 

My big issue is over-trading. 
I need to stop. Take a step back and be selective. 
It really does only take 1 or 2 good trades a week to make good money. 

When daylight savings changes in 7 weeks my part profit at that point is $11,500. 
So that's another $4,500 in 7 weeks which is around $640 per week, so certainly achievable with 3 nights a week until then. 

Right now the goal is to trade well. Nothing more. I've lost focus of this which is easy to happen when making big profits. 

If I trade well I will beat my goal easily. 
If I don't I won't even get there.


----------



## tech/a

pavilion103 said:


> I'm glad that Tech has contributed to this thread in recent weeks because I've been very quiet. I've had a boring few weeks.
> 
> The truth is that I have traded quite poorly in a market which has not moved. Fortunately I've managed risk fairly well and got away without aggregate big losses.
> 
> I start my course this week and I'll only be able to trade 3 nights a week for the next 7 weeks.
> 
> After a roaring start to the year I sit on a profit (FTSE only) of around $7,000. My par profit for this point of the year is $4,500 so fortunately, due to my first two good weeks I am well ahead despite three weeks of small losses.
> 
> 
> Psychology is my big focus at the moment: taking fewer and better setups while leaving the rest alone.
> I have written up some notes which I might post during the week.
> 
> My big issue is over-trading.
> I need to stop. Take a step back and be selective.
> It really does only take 1 or 2 good trades a week to make good money.
> 
> When daylight savings changes in 7 weeks my part profit at that point is $11,500.
> So that's another $4,500 in 7 weeks which is around $640 per week, so certainly achievable with 3 nights a week until then.
> 
> Right now the goal is to trade well. Nothing more. I've lost focus of this which is easy to happen when making big profits.
> 
> If I trade well I will beat my goal easily.
> If I don't I won't even get there.




Love a success story---well done PAV--It can and should be fun!


----------



## pavilion103

Like yourself Tech, I like to put myself on the line and give my thoughts in real time (to a degree) as much as possible.

If I post my success I also post my failure.
I want people to see the struggles and triumphs as they happen.
I can't imagine there are too many places where you will find this.

I don't mind putting myself on the line because if I perform poorly then I will be judged as I deserve. If I perform well I will also be judged as deserved.

It would be easy to come on and give them impression that I'm up $15,000 or $20,000 for he year by posting all my wins but no one will benefit from that.

You're right, it is a fun journey. 
I love the game.


----------



## Wysiwyg

pavilion103 said:


> The truth is that I have traded quite poorly *in a market which has not moved*. Fortunately I've managed risk fairly well and got away without aggregate big losses.



On the contrary, I believe the FTSE has been volatile of late and you got chopped up in the noise and/or held a down trend bias.  Check the ATR on the 15/01/2015 hitting near 110. Getting chopped up in volatile markets with tight stops is not uncommon.


----------



## tech/a

NAH
Plenty of opportunity in that lot.





X is too but not short!


----------



## pavilion103

Wysiwyg said:


> On the contrary, I believe the FTSE has been volatile of late and you got chopped up in the noise and/or held a down trend bias.  Check the ATR on the 15/01/2015 hitting near 110. Getting chopped up in volatile markets with tight stops is not uncommon.
> 
> 
> View attachment 61481




Last 2 weeks = no trending. 

Consolidation at the top waiting for the next move.

Easier to make money on the next move than on the consolidation at the top.


----------



## pavilion103

Not 100% confident about the direction at the moment in terms of big trending days but I took this one. 

Just wanted a low risk entry near the base. 

If I get taken I get taken. Just looking for RR trades while this isn't trending heaps.


----------



## pavilion103

I find longs a little more challenging than shorts personally. 

With longs I really need an obvious support level. 
I then need some good indication of a low (price pushing down but holding) on the 3 min. 

On the chart above it looked like we had that with the reversal bar on the 3 min. However, there was no consolidation bar for confirmation and the setup was just too wide once it moved up. 

At that point I have to be patient and not panic. 
My thinking is:
"I can take a stupid 15 point risk setup hoping it's the bottom, but that is just silly" (I've done it before)
OR
"I must wait for this to push down. If I miss it I miss it. I will not tolerate a poor setup even if it means missing out on a move. So I'll wait patiently for IF it pulls back."

Once it pulls back I can't be silly. It could easily shoot through and take out the low so I can't just guess (unless it is a very clear reversal bottom in which case I might set a 5-6 point limit buy with a stop below the low), I wait for price to push towards the low of the day and then consolidate with a good indication that it failed to push lower. THEN - green light - I can take a 4-5 point limit buy with a stop to the low and not stress even if I get taken out 


Just some insights into my thinking....


----------



## pavilion103

30 minute chart of the last 2 weeks. 
I'm in in a great spot on the daily. Right at the low. So if this does trend up I'm a good chance to not get stopped out. 

I have two choices. 
1 - Lift at 6790 if it gets there for 30 points. 
2 - Hold with the chance of this breaking higher through the triangle. 

This is where I'm disappointed that I missed out on the second contract. 
It makes decisions easier when you can "hedge". 

My thinking is that I leave this with the chance that it could break higher. 
Sure I could lift for 30 if it gets there and it's a good day's pay. 
But IF this thing does happen to break higher, the payoff could be large. 

So I will sit on this for now. 

That's 1 hour of work. 
About 10 minutes of that actually required any sort of thinking, while I sat here drinking my tea and listening to classical music haha. 
Stop close to BE now. 
I'll turn it off and walk away and anything is a bonus.


----------



## pavilion103

Not to be tonight.
I guess the point is to minimize risk and over time you'll have an edge trading this way..

3 weeks of no trending. Tough conditions.

Need to keep executing well and have faith in the results following at some point.


----------



## tech/a

Boom!!

Missed the Up move!!!!!!

Short at 10840




Covered at 10830


----------



## pavilion103

I don't know what to expect here.....

FTSE this is a resistance level 6790. 
It pushed through slightly. 
Is this a false break or will it now dip down a little before breaking through???

This has not been the easiest 3 weeks I've ever seen!!!


----------



## pavilion103

6788 long. 

A good little consolidation there. No chart right now sorry.


----------



## tech/a

Testing highs 
bit busy!

Got a bit of that god awful trading.
went long 858 Still long

Have trailing at 885
Have to go---visitors.
Missed so much tonight --not on the ball!

Edit

Nah Its topped 901--out I can relax.


----------



## pavilion103

This continues to be tough going for me this week. 

I just refused to adapt to market conditions and it has killed me. 
Rather than looking for 15-30 point moves, I am giving away all open profit and losing by chasing and taking poor setups. 

I have really sat down and analysed some very strict methods of how I want to trade long in particular. I may share some of these thoughts when I consolidate them over the weekend. 

I feel that clarity produced good trading. 
It is only a lack of clarity and clear plan that leads to confusion and erratic trading. 

I am staying calm. Despite four weeks without success, I am still marginally ahead of my target and I have learnt a great deal, which I will consolidate into writing shortly.


----------



## tech/a

PAV

*Are you adopting a bias when looking at the chart.*

Even subconsciously?

Often that bias will place you on the wrong side of the trade.

Sort of happened to me yesterday.

The reversal off the high volume bar was a valid trade so took it.
Was obvious very quickly that it had no intention of dropping a great deal so covered.
I watched the consolidation and was of the opinion that it was going to test the high---the recent one.
Closed down the screen and answered an email---no conditional order and should have 2 screens!!!!

Finished the email opened the screen and BOOM bloody missed it.
Could see the consolidation (1 min bars) was really tight so placed a long and short order and got the long.

Rest is commented in the posts.

Kris who is "Learning How to Trade"
Gets on the wrong side ALL the time
His sim account is pretty red!

No BIAS the market already has one and will show you what it IS!


----------



## pavilion103

My contextual analysis = great (in terms of where to enter positions). 

Knowing what setups to take = great. I am very clear about what I want. 

My problems are:
1) I am very loose and not afraid to throw dollars at the market. If I am at the screen I often overtrade. I have put measures in place to actually walk away from the screen if I know the type of setup I want isn't happening in the next 10 mins. So looking at the screen makes me a bit anxious at times and dive in stupidly. Invariably it moves in the direction I knew it would but I get taken out or I enter in a stupid place where a pullback will take me out. 
I need to say -- These are the setups I'm taking, in these places. All else I won't touch. 

2) I feel like I have to trade every night. This is a big problem. I worry that "this could be the night a position trade starts." I need to eradicate this mindset. I have hardly missed a single position trade, yet I panic in "hope". The reality is that I need only ONE or TWO good trades per week. I cannot put this into practice. I need to. Even 1 per day is better than taking 3 or 4 per day which aren't really there.  

3) I am unwilling to take 15-20 point profits in this market because I see them as insignificant. I need to eradicate this mindset also. 3 moves in a week = say 50 points = $1,000. Not bad in a non-trending week. 


I know very clearly what I have to do. 
But when the market opens, I can get thrown off. 
This is only really a problem for me in non-trending markets. 
It isn't disastrous but it is reducing profitability and leading to silly losses. 


I am going to write very clearly how I want to trade in particular market conditions, and what parts of the chart I am willing to enter at on each day. I will post thoughts. 

I am happy with how I'm going overall but I NEED to overcome these tendancies. It WILL take me to $100,000+ p.a. if I can. 

I feel that I am on the very verge of becoming a great trader. 

I will post more specific things over the weekend.


----------



## avion

pavilion103 said:


> I feel that I am on the very verge of becoming a great trader.




Yes, i had that feeling about half a dozen times so far... :scratch:  only to  :grenade:


Now i go from  c:   to            to  c:


----------



## pavilion103

avion said:


> Yes, i had that feeling about half a dozen times so far... :scratch:  only to  :grenade:
> 
> 
> Now i go from  c:   to            to  c:





Yes. Talk is cheap.
Hopefully this thread will show results!


----------



## PennD

I love your honesty and clear self analysis Pav! It looks to me your on the right track...
You could replace my name with yours in that post above and it would all be 100% relevant...
Seems human conditioning leads us to think certain ways which we have to unlearn so as to be able to take our life/trading in a new direction... I am enjoying your thread, thank you!!!

Penn


----------



## Wysiwyg

There is a fine line between wiggle room and losing trades.


----------



## tech/a

Wysiwyg said:


> There is a fine line between wiggle room and losing trades.




Yes it's called patience to get your timing right.

Chart of explanation later.


----------



## pavilion103

It's a fine line between making 50 points and coming away with minus 5!
Being at the screen helps....

Below are KEY insights. This stuff is so crucial for the FTSE. Take note of this post.


----------



## pavilion103

The daily chart of my progress compared to where I am supposed to be at this stage is starting to look a little sick. 

I want to post this honest update so that people cannot look at this thread and think that it lacks any sort of authenticity. 

It is not easy fronting up to the forum with a chart like this, but the positive is that I am still slightly ahead. 

This pattern has happened to me 3 or 4 times and I really must learn from it this time. 
In trending markets I will have $3,000-$6,000 weeks at times and then in non-trending markets, rather than wisely picking up 20 point wins and being more selective of entries, I tend to let my open profits fall back to zero and then rack up a few 10-15 point losses which leaves me in the negative for the week. 

There were a couple of 30 point losses in there, but apart from that it was a steady bleeding of points and lack of willingness to take profit on trades which were 20-25 points up.  Even taking 1 or 2 of those each week would have ensured no losses and in fact, profit. 




WORST case scenario. Draw-down should have been HALF of what is was. At WORST. It is completely unnecessary and unacceptable to give back that much. There is no need at all. If trading by my rules, in reality, I should never really lose more than 20 points net in a week, given that I am always up 20-30 points on 2-3 days per week even in non-trending markets.


----------



## tech/a

PAV

I notice no mention of Volume.
A couple of charts with some Ideas.
I think your a little 1 dimensional.

There are also patterns and hints to indicate that
support OR resistance will be broken.
When consolidation zones become areas of accumulation
or distribution ready for an explosive breakout.

In relation to Wysis' comment the best place for wiggle is AFTER
huge volume above or below it.---

*As price comes into Support OR Resistance
this is one very good way of picking Tops or Bottoms.*


*




*


----------



## pavilion103

I agree.

I have seemed to lose sight of exiting into strong volume at good levels. This is vitally important.

I can't just sit back and think price will consolidate and then break higher. This is projecting my desires rather than trading reality.


In these markets the right play is to always exit in these places.
When it's trending I can let it run more in the right places. 
But even still to ignore volume at these levels is foolish.

Great considerations.
So basic.
Just need to keep it front of mind.
Funnily enough in my notes it says to exit at critical levels and/or high volume.


----------



## ThingyMajiggy

tech/a said:


> PAV
> 
> I notice no mention of Volume.
> A couple of charts with some Ideas.
> I think your a little 1 dimensional.
> 
> There are also patterns and hints to indicate that
> support OR resistance will be broken.
> When consolidation zones become areas of accumulation
> or distribution ready for an explosive breakout.
> 
> In relation to Wysis' comment the best place for wiggle is AFTER
> huge volume above or below it.---
> 
> *As price comes into Support OR Resistance
> this is one very good way of picking Tops or Bottoms.*
> 
> 
> *
> View attachment 61564
> 
> 
> View attachment 61565
> *




That third long is interesting no? After the first two, that third one would LOOK like it was stuff all volume in comparison to the others when watching it live as it's happening. Isn't there always going to be volume going into an area of support/resistance, if it's bounced or turned there before(hence why it is even supp/res in the first place) surely there will always be volume whether it breaks through or not, as there will always be a bit of resistance to pushing through, simply because it will be a place where people like us are looking for positions because it has been supp/res previously? It's just whether THIS time it's strong enough and has enough force behind it to push through. 

Not quite sure I understand your concept of volume INTO an area shows signs that it's going to hold. I think it can favour either, breaking through or holding, depends what the supposed "smart money" wants.


----------



## tech/a

Sam
It's A very important reversal
Reversals at support or Resistant aren't exclusively
Characterized by increasing volume into it.

There are other considerations that actually indicate the longer term
Direction out of a consolidation.

I'm happy to give some information out
I thought hard before I posted this. Was simply going
To email PAV.

See if I don't give out info I'm hedging with an intention of
Something self centered around profit----according to Craft.

If I've got something that's valuable why would I make it public
----according to the masses------indeed why would I .


----------



## ThingyMajiggy

tech/a said:


> Sam
> It's A very important reversal
> Reversals at support or Resistant aren't exclusively
> Characterized by increasing volume into it.
> 
> There are other considerations that actually indicate the longer term
> Direction out of a consolidation.
> 
> I'm happy to give some information out
> I thought hard before I posted this. Was simply going
> To email PAV.
> 
> See if I don't give out info I'm hedging with an intention of
> Something self centered around profit----according to Craft.
> 
> If I've got something that's valuable why would I make it public
> ----according to the masses------indeed why would I .




I did send you an email the other day but might've been an old email you don't use about this topic, but I'm sure that the high majority of us here appreciate your posts and info/guidance. Don't be put off by those who assume things or nay-sayers, just think of them as losing trades  Your like to dislike ratio is still very good


----------



## nulla nulla

tech/a said:


> Sam
> It's A very important reversal
> Reversals at support or Resistant aren't exclusively
> Characterized by increasing volume into it.
> 
> There are other considerations that actually indicate the longer term
> Direction out of a consolidation.
> 
> I'm happy to give some information out
> I thought hard before I posted this. Was simply going
> To email PAV.
> 
> See if I don't give out info I'm hedging with an intention of
> Something self centered around profit----according to Craft.
> 
> If I've got something that's valuable why would I make it public
> ----according to the masses------indeed why would I .




I can't work out why you let a few naysayers undermine your self confidence and disrupt your contribution. Seriously, if you stopped to self evaluate your current position in your life, the yapping of a few ill informed young pups would simply be background noise you should ignore.  Stop letting it get to you and focus on the positive. There a some young pups here, lurkers, that benefit from your contribution even if they are quiet about it. There are also a few older dogs that listen in case there are some new tricks or angles worth considering. Toughen up and get on with it.


----------



## fiftyeight

Chuck me on that email list. I was just thinking about support, resistance and exits the other day. 


I am pretty sure I have previously said in this thread when I was playing around on the FTSE my biggest problem was my exits, often holding way to long. 

Any thoughts are always greatly appreciated


----------



## pavilion103

I'm starting to realize that in most market conditions profit will come from 2-3 x 20-35 point move rather than 1 x 40-50.

There is a time for letting it run (trending conditions), but no reason why on average I can't have 2-3 nights per week of 2-3 contracts x 20-25 point moves.

I feel that this mindset will lead to much more consistent profit. Then in strong trending markets I let it run.


----------



## Mdean

*Pav:* 
I wanted to thank you for starting this thread and posting your amazing journey over the last 2 years. I've just finished reading the entire thread which has taken me a number of weeks. I feel it's been a fantastic read with some extremely valuable contributions from a number of regular posters _(Tech, T/H, Canoz, Kid, Lone)_. Some humour along the way as well which had me thinking the thread was going to derail but you were able to keep it on topic and stuck by your plan. 

It's inspirational for someone like myself who has been on my own trading journey over the last few years. Due to fear and a lack of commitment I have found many times along the way I have lead myself astray only to crawl my way back, something about the markets hey? I've read into a lot of material available but found this thread has been just what I needed to read to get my head back on track. The thread talks a lot about 'sticking to the plan', 'managing risk', 'managing emotions' and I feel some learnings from this thread can apply to everyday life. I might be going over the top with this but felt given you have put hours of your own time over the last few years into helping people like me I felt you deserved some thanks, even if from just an average joe.

On another note, I think given your track record and determination it won't be long till you turn things around for the last few down weeks. I'll be continuing to follow this thread as long as it stays active and look forward to when the time comes where I can contribute something of value. 

Cheers,
Dean.


----------



## PinguPingu

Pav/Tech, how do you measure the risk of your entries? I understand that R:R must always try to be as good as possible. Do you just wait it out till a low risk, high reward strategy appears on the index? And how do you know, or at least know its a good probability the levels you enter hold to be a good setup. 

When attempting to sim trade either forex or futures I just constantly get stopped out and bleed money, only for the move to reverse to what would have been a nice profit, except, I'm stopped out already. And if I get a good move I almost always cut it too short. (btw do you guys use breakeven stops in your future trades?)


----------



## tech/a

> The thread talks a lot about 'sticking to the plan', 'managing risk', 'managing emotions' and I feel some learnings from this thread can apply to everyday life




Dean

Your right--few people realize this!



PinguPingu said:


> Pav/Tech, how do you measure the risk of your entries? I understand that R:R must always try to be as good as possible. Do you just wait it out till a low risk, high reward strategy appears on the index? And how do you know, or at least know its a good probability the levels you enter hold to be a good setup.
> 
> When attempting to sim trade either forex or futures I just constantly get stopped out and bleed money, only for the move to reverse to what would have been a nice profit, except, I'm stopped out already. And if I get a good move I almost always cut it too short. (btw do you guys use breakeven stops in your future trades?)




A very important question.
What's happening to you is a universal phenomenon. I'm teaching Kris discretionary trading now and he is doing exactly as you are!

How do you get out of the cycle.

Its all about timing and not taking a trade on a hunch.
(1) Don't take a trade in NO MANS LAND. (Between Support or Resistance.)
(2) Learn how to analyse a consolidation
(3) Learn how to recognise a continuation micro pattern.
(4)Look at the charts above where you should take a trade be sure you are at an area where you'll know really quickly if your wrong.
(5) Understand volume in these patterns.
(6) Recognise individual reversal and continuation bars.
(7) Understand to get set you may need a couple of bites.
e.g. for me a 5 tick loss x 3 is fine for a 45 tick gain.
(8) Don't develop a bias!
(9) Exit when you can see a clear change of sentiment---in your timeframe. (Wont be just one bar).
(10) Learn how to combine time frames to stay on the right side of a trade.
(11) Smaller time frame S&R will only be minor.

Keep at it one day its like looking at a familiar face. *That's when you know your there!*


----------



## BeanJumbler

Thank you for posting your long and transformative journey! I found this journal through some links to it in other threads.

I went back to page 1 and started reading it. And I just wanted to ask before I continue on to read the entire 200 odd pages - on the first page, you state that your transitioning from stocks to futures - do you have another thread where you began your stock trading ideas, before getting into futures, *that I should read before this one*?

I ask because I'm a beginner with both stocks and futures, and don't really follow the technical analysis. If there is no other thread, do I need to have some technical analysis under my belt before attempting to understand / follow your progress?


----------



## pavilion103

BeanJumbler said:


> Thank you for posting your long and transformative journey! I found this journal through some links to it in other threads.
> 
> I went back to page 1 and started reading it. And I just wanted to ask before I continue on to read the entire 200 odd pages - on the first page, you state that your transitioning from stocks to futures - do you have another thread where you began your stock trading ideas, before getting into futures, *that I should read before this one*?
> 
> I ask because I'm a beginner with both stocks and futures, and don't really follow the technical analysis. If there is no other thread, do I need to have some technical analysis under my belt before attempting to understand / follow your progress?




Hmm..
I don't think there was one. Probably just miscellaneous posts in various threads. I actually started a LARGE number of threads on this site when I started out; each related to different aspects. 

I also started a Hypothetical Trading Thread which might be of interest. I can't remember how it started. And now my Live Trading thread could be of interest for you to follow as I progress. I will post more informative explainations and charts when time permits.


----------



## pavilion103

Mdean said:


> *Pav:*
> I wanted to thank you for starting this thread and posting your amazing journey over the last 2 years. I've just finished reading the entire thread which has taken me a number of weeks. I feel it's been a fantastic read with some extremely valuable contributions from a number of regular posters _(Tech, T/H, Canoz, Kid, Lone)_. Some humour along the way as well which had me thinking the thread was going to derail but you were able to keep it on topic and stuck by your plan.
> 
> It's inspirational for someone like myself who has been on my own trading journey over the last few years. Due to fear and a lack of commitment I have found many times along the way I have lead myself astray only to crawl my way back, something about the markets hey? I've read into a lot of material available but found this thread has been just what I needed to read to get my head back on track. The thread talks a lot about 'sticking to the plan', 'managing risk', 'managing emotions' and I feel some learnings from this thread can apply to everyday life. I might be going over the top with this but felt given you have put hours of your own time over the last few years into helping people like me I felt you deserved some thanks, even if from just an average joe.
> 
> On another note, I think given your track record and determination it won't be long till you turn things around for the last few down weeks. I'll be continuing to follow this thread as long as it stays active and look forward to when the time comes where I can contribute something of value.
> 
> Cheers,
> Dean.




Thanks a lot. I appreciate the post. Glad it's helped. 

I'm hoping to make this thread a whole lot more exciting when some bigger results come!
Will be interesting to see where this is in 1-2 years!


----------



## pavilion103

tech/a said:


> Dean
> 
> Your right--few people realize this!
> 
> 
> 
> A very important question.
> What's happening to you is a universal phenomenon. I'm teaching Kris discretionary trading now and he is doing exactly as you are!
> 
> How do you get out of the cycle.
> 
> Its all about timing and not taking a trade on a hunch.
> (1) Don't take a trade in NO MANS LAND. (Between Support or Resistance.)
> (2) Learn how to analyse a consolidation
> (3) Learn how to recognise a continuation micro pattern.
> (4)Look at the charts above where you should take a trade be sure you are at an area where you'll know really quickly if your wrong.
> (5) Understand volume in these patterns.
> (6) Recognise individual reversal and continuation bars.
> (7) Understand to get set you may need a couple of bites.
> e.g. for me a 5 tick loss x 3 is fine for a 45 tick gain.
> (8) Don't develop a bias!
> (9) Exit when you can see a clear change of sentiment---in your timeframe. (Wont be just one bar).
> (10) Learn how to combine time frames to stay on the right side of a trade.
> (11) Smaller time frame S&R will only be minor.
> 
> Keep at it one day its like looking at a familiar face. *That's when you know your there!*




Brilliant as always.


----------



## 5oclock

Sounds good PAV, will make this thread even more widely read !!!!


----------



## Newt

tech/a said:


> Dean
> 
> Your right--few people realize this!
> 
> 
> 
> A very important question.
> What's happening to you is a universal phenomenon. I'm teaching Kris discretionary trading now and he is doing exactly as you are!
> 
> How do you get out of the cycle.
> 
> Its all about timing and not taking a trade on a hunch.
> (1) Don't take a trade in NO MANS LAND. (Between Support or Resistance.)
> (2) Learn how to analyse a consolidation
> (3) Learn how to recognise a continuation micro pattern.
> (4)Look at the charts above where you should take a trade be sure you are at an area where you'll know really quickly if your wrong.
> (5) Understand volume in these patterns.
> (6) Recognise individual reversal and continuation bars.
> (7) Understand to get set you may need a couple of bites.
> e.g. for me a 5 tick loss x 3 is fine for a 45 tick gain.
> (8) Don't develop a bias!
> (9) Exit when you can see a clear change of sentiment---in your timeframe. (Wont be just one bar).
> (10) Learn how to combine time frames to stay on the right side of a trade.
> (11) Smaller time frame S&R will only be minor.
> 
> Keep at it one day its like looking at a familiar face. *That's when you know your there!*






Definitely priceless info.
Heck, would be happy to be able to manage just half of this reliably.
One thing that gives me hope is each year being able to list another few things now understood and insisted on before an entry (reading/learning versus really believing takes time for most of us!).

If that forces a sit on the sidelines until RULE 1 is fulfilled, then so be it!

Reading "Trading in the Zone" of late, one concept that's personally been very helpful is thinking of Risk/Reward as "how much risk am I will to buy, just to see how this trade will play out".  Buying in halfway between support and resistance or trend lines is like accepting you'll buy risk at a greater cost with less chance of success.  Doesn't make sense.

(then why the hell did I keep doing it so often  )


One great thing about learning futures at the moment - the falling Aussie dollar is at least leaving a bit of upside as we newbies struggle to just break even.


----------



## PinguPingu

Newt said:


> (then why the hell did I keep doing it so often  )





I feel your pain, man. I think as well we often miss the big liquid moves just because we are in the wrong damn timezone, and also take no mans land trades because thats when we're awake. The Asian trading period seems to usually have the lowest liquidity and lesser volatility, unless you want to trade the Nikkei or Shanghai Index of course


----------



## pavilion103

FTSE has pre open trading again I see?

Looks like the last 2 nights it has held well. Looks set for an up move.


----------



## pavilion103

Pre open different to before.
Doesn't close 10 mins before the actual open


----------



## pavilion103

Long 6864 x 1


----------



## tech/a

pavilion103 said:


> Long 6864 x 1




No trend in the FTSE and no signs of one. Only good for short term (5-10 ticks at a time.)
In my view.
If at all!--at the moment


----------



## pavilion103

tech/a said:


> No trend in the FTSE and no signs of one. Only good for short term (5-10 ticks at a time.)
> In my view.
> If at all!--at the moment




Tough going.
This just does not want to do anything!


----------



## pavilion103

I've been thinking long and hard about my strategy and also my mindset. 

I've created this checklist to look at before and during my trades to focus my mind on what I need to do.


----------



## pavilion103

Got on this entry. 
Not heaps confident in this market but a re-test at resistance level, if managed well is worth it. 

Only the 1 contract. 

6810 is the target if it can get anywhere near there.


----------



## tech/a

Find momentum in a time frame and hop on.
Find a culmination to momentum and hop off.


----------



## pavilion103

It's challenging Tech. 
Right now it's around 6830. Looks like some slowing of momentum but not usually where I would take off and not at any sort of support level. 
So I am confused as to the right decision here. No huge volume indicators. 

Safe option is to get out I guess. But is it also the premature option?

Now price is up around 6835 -- only 10 points from my entry. 


It's an interesting one because if momentum slows at a critical level with the right volume characteristics I will jump off. But when in no man's land, I tend to want to hold. 

Not a whole lot at stake here, but price does look to be holding up SO FAR. Do I need more confirmation?
My plan is to hold. So I will here. 
If this sort of action was occurring at 6810 I would be out without hesitation.


----------



## tech/a

PAV watch for these 

*PARTICULARLY* coming into support or resistance.
Very reliable.


----------



## pavilion103

I like to monitor the RR of the trade as it goes also. 

IF unclear and 10 points up with a target of 35 then hold. 

IF unclear and 30 points up with a target of 35 then EXIT. 


The 25-40 point profits are the ones that I really need to work on not giving back.


----------



## pavilion103

tech/a said:


> PAV watch for these
> 
> *PARTICULARLY* coming into support or resistance.
> Very reliable.
> 
> View attachment 61637




You're right. 

It just isn't falling so I'm taking 10 points. 

Not my usual play but this my usual market. Not moving at all. 

I've given it a chance to see how it settles and it isn't pushing lower. 

I need to read what is there not what I want to project.


----------



## tech/a

Here is the DAX NOW.


----------



## pavilion103

That DAX one looks very clear to me. That bar was enormous and it looked like an accumulation base I'd see in a stock. 

The killer for me with the FTSE was the lack of a clear support level. Even a minor one would have given me more confidence to exit. But you are right, price action clearly pointed to it holding. For me, probably around 6830 would have been my best exit in that instance. It was the first place that I considered exiting.  

As I said clear S/R level and I'm definitely out of that one and then looking to reverse it for low risk of 5-6 points. That was my intention if it got to 6810.


----------



## tech/a

> That DAX one looks very clear to me. That bar was enormous and it looked like an accumulation base I'd see in a stock.




*The FACE.*
And you recognized it!

Here is how it panned out and a hint on what we are working on.
Oh and it did test the high i noted on the chart!


----------



## pavilion103

Thanks.
That was some really good consolidation on the DAX.

Tbh there are the ones I'd feel comfortable taking on that beast. The very clear ones.


There were 3 (I think) consolidation bars on the FTSE following the fall and slight push up. Once the third one formed I thought that it just will not go down now. I was too busy worrying about my exit to get the long.


The truth is the support level threw me off big time.
Usually it is such a big clue (as you posted last week on the charts).


----------



## pavilion103

I'm happy.

The goal for me is get on between 5-6 point risk most times. Manage risk at the start. Make regular 25-35 point moves. Rinse and repeat.

With 2 contracts losses should never be more than around 12ish.
And I could have regular wins of 50-60 (2-3 times in a lot of weeks).

Simple and boring.
I need to enjoy boring. 

Nothing like repeating something with an edge.
As cosbsitently grows increase more contracts.

No need to try and smack huge 80 point wins.

Then when in a good spot maybe hold one for a position trade every now and then.


I feel so much clarity right now.

Simple. Simple. Simple.


Great charts too Tech. Brilliant.
I'm back taking more interest of volume too.


----------



## tech/a

Some important Price action on the DAX as it un folds







Back later when it pans out.
(I'm short) Risk 11 ticks)


----------



## tech/a

Got stopped.

Volume did come in in abundance and the trade did pan out
Without me on it.
That's trading. You can get it right and still get it wrong!

Still a very interesting period to analyse.


----------



## pavilion103

I guess that's the price you willingly pay being away from the screen. Would have no doubt limited risk. 

These markets are tough going but boy do they teach a lot. 
It's almost like doing the hard yards and then when the market trends you're prepared to implement all the good lessons learnt.

Amazing how opportunity is still here.
Even take the FTSE had I reversed the low when I exited that's 30 points up to resistance.
Take 2 and it's at least 50.
Money always there to be made, but just have to be more patient and wise in these conditions.


----------



## pavilion103

You know I'm one who cares little for the golden eggs and much more for the golden goose.

Despite a lean period I am more excited and confident than ever. 

The lessons being learnt are so profound. 
Get these right and results will flow.


----------



## >Apocalypto<

ummm the DAX ok? why not have a 100 plus pt move in 2min


----------



## Wysiwyg

>Apocalypto< said:


> ummm the DAX ok? why not have a 100 plus pt move in 2min



It's all fun and games until someone gets a poke in the eye with a burnt stick.


----------



## PinguPingu

There ain't no party like a Greece-bailout party, to trade the breakout and fade! If only I had the guts


----------



## fiftyeight

Hi Pav. Had a quick read of your Live Checklist. You mention not to trade the open, I'm sure I have seen a few charts where you take a trade in the first few bars. What do you consider the open?


----------



## pavilion103

fiftyeight said:


> Hi Pav. Had a quick read of your Live Checklist. You mention not to trade the open, I'm sure I have seen a few charts where you take a trade in the first few bars. What do you consider the open?




Moreso just a reminder for me to not jump on impulsively. If it consolidates in a tight range on the 1 min for a few bars with 5 points risk then I'll consider but generally don't want to just jump on the open all the time.


----------



## pavilion103

Yesterday was bloody annoying. I had an entry at the low in fact. Stop below the low. 5 point risk.

Should have just left it like I worte about this week. Cost me 70 points I had I just turned it off and gone to bed!


----------



## Mdean

Anyone active tonight? 




Could the 6868 level become support?


----------



## tech/a

Mdean said:


> Anyone active tonight?
> 
> View attachment 61709
> 
> 
> Could the 6868 level become support?




Yes but on the DAX


----------



## Jasonm2310

Mdean said:


> Anyone active tonight?
> 
> View attachment 61709
> 
> 
> Could the 6868 level become support?





Mdean - If you believe you've found a level start stacking the book around the zone!


----------



## Mdean

Jasonm2310 said:


> Mdean - If you believe you've found a level start stacking the book around the zone!




Only using Sim at this stage Jason, I am hoping to transition into futures also at some stage. Keen to hear what others are thinking. Any thoughts on the FTSE for tonight?


----------



## tech/a

Mdean said:


> Only using Sim at this stage Jason, I am hoping to transition into futures also at some stage. Keen to hear what others are thinking. Any thoughts on the FTSE for tonight?




There are 2 clear insto shorts on your chart.
Would be a game man to play long side.
I'm short DAX 11145
Can you see them ?
If not Ill mark up your chart

Ill post it anyway

Click to xpand.


----------



## Mdean

tech/a said:


> There are 2 clear insto shorts on your chart.
> Would be a game man to play long side.
> I'm short DAX 11145
> Can you see them ?
> If not Ill mark up your chart




Nice work on that entry, did you get on in the first few bars of the session or at around 8pm? Is it possible for you to mark them tech? 

EDIT: Thanks for adding your feedback Tech.

Cheers,


----------



## tech/a

DAX Trade





Think DAX will now move sideways before it completes
the move.
So Up to TV stops in place.
Placate the Entertainment Director!


----------



## tech/a

Off to bed Closed out 11090


----------



## tech/a

Set this trade up as I go out for tea.

*Click to expand*


----------



## tech/a

Covered 11207

Thats it tonight.


----------



## tech/a

DAX now


----------



## tech/a

Closed 417
40 ticks for the night.(About an Hr)


----------



## Nortorious

My first attempt at applying my strategy in the futures/forex markets and instead of going long, went short (first attempt at this too).

Don't ask me why I went with UK100 or why 15mins but the chart pattern looked like something I could trade.

I was using a demo account from CityIndex and placed my trades between 8pm and closed at 1am. Result was a profit (albeit) of $2.5k and reflecting this morning, it appears I closed out and went to bed just before the second half of the move.

I'll be looking at moving into these markets in the future and have started reading this thread from the beginning (got through 31 pages last night). 

I like to trade with an understanding of the volume but I couldn't find it on the CityIndex platform. I do have TradeGuider RT but haven't hooked up any data. *Is that the best way to be able to see volume Tech/A and Pav?*

Basically need some guidance on the following:
- How to get volume for futures/forex markets (and which providers are cost efficient)
- Best broker to be using for this type of trading
- Any books that are good for background understanding of these markets
- What time do markets open? (I'm looking how I can combine with my full time work - get home from the office at 7pm).

I look forward to dipping my toe in and learning about this other trading avenue. As some would know, I'm in stocks and have my capital fully deployed at the moment so won't be trading real cash at the moment.

Happy to get any PMs if you don't want to fill up the thread.

Thanks folks


----------



## tech/a

> Basically need some guidance on the following:
> - How to get volume for futures/forex markets (and which providers are cost efficient)




There are some arguments as to tick volume V number of trades volume. Tick volume which is easiest to get is in my view best ---although we are investigating trade volume(Bought from Tick data.com) All our Historical testing data is from Tick data.

So we use both IBs for sim (Which we find in sim is glitchy particularly the HSI) and I use for trading Esignal.

 -







> Best broker to be using for this type of trading




I think an account with IB is best (Interactive brokers) There are others.



> - Any books that are good for background understanding of these markets




The markets themselves V methods of trading them?



> - What time do markets open? (I'm looking how I can combine with my full time work - get home from the office at 7pm).





http://futuresonline.com/trading/trading-hours.cfm

Just navigate the tabs
Of course you'll need to convert to your local time.

That was a great trade by the way.
Guess or calculated?
If calculated your well on the way! And it IS very exciting!

Don't also forget the mini's
For your times Europe/Currencies/Commodities and possibly US markets seem best.
Keep us informed through your journey--looks like another one is joining us.


----------



## tech/a

Some Emini Info.

http://www.investopedia.com/univers...i-futures-contracts/other-emini-contracts.asp


----------



## pavilion103

An update.

I haven't had much to report the past few weeks. Not much success in terms of big moves. This ranging market is frustrating me and hasn't been worth the time I've invested.

I've jam packed my schedule with early starts, work, trading, study, church commitments. I am doing way too much. Thankfuly this is the final year of study so that will free up a large chunk of time.

Earlier in the year I was suffering symptoms of stress and also had a virus. It went away for a month but has now returned. It appears the stress of everything  has brought this on. I've felt anxiety and overwhelm which is very foreign for me. Had a whole bunch of tests which were all clear.

I'm going to step back for the next week completely. Clear the mind. Even got about a week off work. No work, no trading (except maybe minor updates to my other thread). 

The body is telling me I need a break.


----------



## pavilion103

I think also the targets I've set have put pressure on me so I'll need to just leave that alone and when I get back into it, get back to just trading well and the results will come.

Also will need to reduce my posting on ASF for a while. In the moments I've had to just sit back for s few minutes I've been posting when I really don't need to. Just another thing to think about!


I'll get back into it in the not too distant future


----------



## BeanJumbler

pavilion103 said:


> I think also the targets I've set have put pressure on me so I'll need to just leave that alone and when I get back into it, get back to just trading well and the results will come.
> 
> Also will need to reduce my posting on ASF for a while. In the moments I've had to just sit back for s few minutes I've been posting when I really don't need to. Just another thing to think about!
> 
> 
> I'll get back into it in the not too distant future 




Sounds like a well earned break is in order.

Thank you for all your postings sir. We look forward to your return


----------



## Newt

Yep, you've got plenty of credit on ASF to take time out Pav.

Something to respect about Al Brooks is his fundamental belief that trading should be enjoyable, or else something is not right.  Hope you recharge and find your way back when feeling the need again or personal time better allows.


----------



## Nortorious

tech/a said:


> There are some arguments as to tick volume V number of trades volume. Tick volume which is easiest to get is in my view best ---although we are investigating trade volume(Bought from Tick data.com) All our Historical testing data is from Tick data.
> 
> So we use both IBs for sim (Which we find in sim is glitchy particularly the HSI) and I use for trading Esignal.
> 
> -
> 
> I think an account with IB is best (Interactive brokers) There are others.
> 
> 
> 
> The markets themselves V methods of trading them?
> 
> 
> 
> 
> http://futuresonline.com/trading/trading-hours.cfm
> 
> Just navigate the tabs
> Of course you'll need to convert to your local time.
> 
> That was a great trade by the way.
> Guess or calculated?
> If calculated your well on the way! And it IS very exciting!
> 
> Don't also forget the mini's
> For your times Europe/Currencies/Commodities and possibly US markets seem best.
> Keep us informed through your journey--looks like another one is joining us.




Thanks for the reply Tech. I'll look into Esignal and I'm aware of IB so will check them out to see what their requirements are to get started.

Will read up on those two links you provided and might do some further googling today to learn some more. The books I was looking for are more on how the markets work (contract sizes etc). I have my own strategy which is a combination of Wyckoff, Darvas and Weinstein. Applies fairly well trading both ways...

It was a pretty nice first trade (even in demo mode) as it behaved appropriately. I would say it was calculated as I traded it in accordance to my strategy/plan. Although moving further down after heading to bed, being able to close out a profitable trade was ideal. Obviously staying up a bit longer may have meant further profit....

Will keep you informed on how I'm progressing and any trades I take, be it in demo mode or when I dip my toe into the water.

And yes it is VERY exciting if I can create another income stream (or at least grow my capital and better than the cash rate) using this trading...


----------



## Nortorious

pavilion103 said:


> An update.
> 
> I haven't had much to report the past few weeks. Not much success in terms of big moves. This ranging market is frustrating me and hasn't been worth the time I've invested.
> 
> I've jam packed my schedule with early starts, work, trading, study, church commitments. I am doing way too much. Thankfuly this is the final year of study so that will free up a large chunk of time.
> 
> Earlier in the year I was suffering symptoms of stress and also had a virus. It went away for a month but has now returned. It appears the stress of everything  has brought this on. I've felt anxiety and overwhelm which is very foreign for me. Had a whole bunch of tests which were all clear.
> 
> I'm going to step back for the next week completely. Clear the mind. Even got about a week off work. No work, no trading (except maybe minor updates to my other thread).
> 
> The body is telling me I need a break.




Hey Pav, 

Sounds like you are living quite a busy lifestyle! A bit of stress and a virus can knock you about so take it easy and rest up. Clearing the mind always helps get rid of any anxiety so as you are doing, step back, chill out and refresh and recharge. 

We look forward to having you back but also want you to be healthy and in the right mindframe so you can be a success when trading. Take it easy buddy!


----------



## Nortorious

Esignal data ain't cheap is it?  Wowee 

Might be working on the demo account for quite some time in order to have enough capital just for the data feed! haha. 

Set up costs look like they might prohibit me from getting into these anytime soon (given you need $10k to put down in the account just to get started). All my capital is in stocks at the moment and I'm only just scratching the surface for futures. 

Perhaps I'll track my performance on the demo account over the next month and see what my performance is like to see if I can justify the investment to get started with this type of trading. Risk v Reward.... always considered by a good trader!


----------



## CanOz

Nortorious said:


> Esignal data ain't cheap is it?  Wowee
> 
> Might be working on the demo account for quite some time in order to have enough capital just for the data feed! haha.
> 
> Set up costs look like they might prohibit me from getting into these anytime soon (given you need $10k to put down in the account just to get started). All my capital is in stocks at the moment and I'm only just scratching the surface for futures.
> 
> Perhaps I'll track my performance on the demo account over the next month and see what my performance is like to see if I can justify the investment to get started with this type of trading. Risk v Reward.... always considered by a good trader!




Esignal is extortionatly expensive. It's good if you need intraday ASX though, other than that why would you bother....IBs historical data is limited using the API...I still like my CQG data through AMP....Oh, esignal has no level II the kospi or the HSI....weird. So many issues with data when you're retail...


----------



## RGTrader

I need some help from the more experienced traders in regards to some services. 
Did any of you write automated scripts that are automatically executed in C++? 
Are there hosting solutions for US markets that any one has used? 

Thank you for all your help. 

RGT


----------



## tech/a

RGTrader said:


> I need some help from the more experienced traders in regards to some services.
> Did any of you write automated scripts that are automatically executed in C++?
> Are there hosting solutions for US markets that any one has used?
> 
> Thank you for all your help.
> 
> RGT




We are currently writing systems in python.
IB supports Auto.
Very much in development at this stage.

Im pretty sure Radge has some of his Automated through IB


----------



## artist

RGTrader said:


> I need some help from the more experienced traders in regards to some services.
> Did any of you write automated scripts that are automatically executed in C++? RGT




Howard Bandy Consulting may be of interest to you, depending on just what it is you are after. http://www.blueowlpress.com/

"Beginning either with your concepts and ideas or with existing computer code, we will help you design and implement the trading system that fits your requirements."

"Your system can be coded using the C++ language and compiled into a dll file, giving advantages of faster execution speed and helping to protect the trading system methodology."

"All work is done under strict adherence to your non-disclosure requirements."


(I have never had any communication of any sort with Howard.)


----------



## tech/a

Just on that.

Howards book (The last one ) has been in valuable when it comes to coding up Amibroker.
According to my programmer.


----------



## Modest

tech/a said:


> Just on that.
> 
> Howards book (The last one ) has been in valuable when it comes to coding up Amibroker.
> According to my programmer.




Hey Tech/a I think it was you who suggested to people to create an account with IB and fund their account with the minimum required then setup the demo then withdraw the amount. Do you know if that is still possible?

Since I am 25 I can get away with a 3,000USD minimum deposit for individual account which is easier than 10k 

Are IB good to go for futures?


----------



## tech/a

Modest said:


> Hey Tech/a I think it was you who suggested to people to create an account with IB and fund their account with the minimum required then setup the demo then withdraw the amount. Do you know if that is still possible?
> 
> Since I am 25 I can get away with a 3,000USD minimum deposit for individual account which is easier than 10k
> 
> Are IB good to go for futures?




Not sure.
I did it with Kris but never withdrew back
To the minimum.
Can't see why a minimum wont do the trick
IB are fine for futures


----------



## barney

Modest said:


> create an account with IB and fund their account with the minimum required then setup the demo then withdraw the amount. Do you know if that is still possible?




For your info from IB 


As the IB business model, by design, is oriented towards active traders, there is no provision for dormant or inactive account status.  As long as an account remains open it will be subject to the monthly *minimum activity fee of USD 10 if the account balance is above USD 2,000* (or equivalent) and *USD 20 once the account balance falls below USD 2,000* (this minimum activity fee is set at *USD 3 for account holders age 25 and under*).   Also, should the account balance falls below USD 2,000 IB is precluded, by regulation, from affording margin treatment to securities positions.   In addition, account holders will also be billed for any market data subscriptions maintained and, as a matter of policy, will have* subscriptions terminated automatically when the account balance falls below USD 500*.

 Also note that the monthly minimum activity fee will continue to be assessed until such time *the account no longer has equity, at which point it will be automatically closed*. Any request to re-open a closed account will require that the account be funded with the minimum account opening deposit of US 10,000, or equivalent.


----------



## Modest

You guys are a great help I'll call today and confirm a few things. Hoping to get my feet wet in the ES ASAP


----------



## tech/a

Interesting read at the start of play tonight.





Worth a post I thought.


----------



## tech/a

As expected but boring


----------



## tech/a

Now 20 min later ---not so boring.




Didnt pause for long
Nothing stopping this fall
No Effort.


----------



## tech/a

Well here is the effort to sell off!!

I now expect a pause so I'm out
A good night




I hope the commentary helps some.
*And it looks like its pulled up too!*

*Why out on that bar as its falling?*

3 bars of well over average volume this is showing an
exhaustion of sellers. Once gone (As it wont be big players because the volume is too low!)
The buyers will stop being smashed by supply.
So things will stop---like this---until another effort either pushes back up or back down
I---will be asleep!


----------



## Nortorious

Thanks for posting tech/a. Always interesting and educational looking at your charts with commentary.

I am practicing on the mini DJIA tonight as I have set up a new demo account with a firm that I was referred to and testing out their platform etc.

I'll probably be trading the FTSE and FESX when I get serious about these markets and have time to watch and get a feel for how they operate etc.


----------



## fiftyeight

tech/a said:


> 3 bars of well over average volume this is showing an
> exhaustion of sellers. *Once gone (As it wont be big players because the volume is too low!)*
> The buyers will stop being smashed by supply.




VSA still perplexes me 

So the smart money would likely have been set at around the same point as you? Then as the longs exited (forced to buy at cheaper prices) and new shorts entered the price was driven down.

Then the big spike I have highlighted which you did not cover? 

I assume your stop was at BE, must of got pretty close?

Prices pulls back with no real volume after the spike so the sellers step in and price continues to fall.

Then (your highlighted area) the price is marked down quickly to then cover larger positions (rise in volume) indicating the larger players are done for now? But the bit in bold you say it wont be big players, do you mean the big players have not covered and are likely still short?


----------



## tech/a

I see your problem.
It's very common when first introduced to VSA 
Your thinking is what I call conventional volume
Price reaction. The hard thing is that you have to 
think in the exact opposite to convention.

I'll have some time tonight to walk through all points that
You have made.


----------



## tech/a

Let me see if we cant get some better understanding.
58 or anyone who wants to join in.

*This is live----*

CLICK TO EXPAND

*What are the important points to observe?*


----------



## skyQuake

tech/a said:


> Let me see if we cant get some better understanding.
> 58 or anyone who wants to join in.
> 
> *This is live----*
> 
> CLICK TO EXPAND
> 
> *What are the important points to observe?*
> 
> View attachment 62035




Looks like a lot of effort to push through 12000 at 8:00, 18:00 and 8:00 again today. Lots of volume and nothing to show for it. 
Heading lower imo


----------



## Chris.M

skyQuake said:


> Heading lower imo




I would agree with skyQuake.  The bars have a large range which looks like its trying to push up, however its pushing up into a resistance zone with volume getting less and less. 

On the second last bar, once it reaches the zone it closes on the low. There doesn't appear to be any interest in pushing it through the zone, so in my opinion its not succeeding and will head lower.


----------



## tech/a

Ok so we like resistance so would go short.
I did.
At this point I switch to a lower time frame



	

		
			
		

		
	
.


2 min.


----------



## Chris.M

The first bar looks like an attempt to push up but it get's knocked down on some reasonable volume. Its important because if there was interest in this move going higher, it should have pushed through overcoming the supply, but it hasn't.

That second bar appears to be some demand coming in. You would expect that this would trend further down given the failed attempt to go higher, but with that bar I'd say its going to pause here and go side ways for a little while. More bars are probably needed to determine where it might after that.


----------



## tech/a

I've gotta go and closed out a while ago but.

The high was signaled with the long tail and low close.
The previous top wasn't taken out so stops for current shorts all OK.

The bar which clearly shows strength in my view Longs are selling into strength. (Covering)

Price falls then pretty quickly when the next chart happens and My Que for exit.
I was of the pinion the last few lows would be tested but when the first wasn't and there was a quick
reversal on low volume after a number of bars on higher volume My suspicion is that this is going to range as one side builds or distributes.---Longs selling into strength.

Just enough to lighten long positions---not get out and run south but take some profit.
Not enough volume on 2 min bars to show really strong presence.

You'll see it if and when it comes. 




This will range until the big guys finish distributing around the 12000 mark.


----------



## skyQuake

My comments in blue.


----------



## ThingyMajiggy

So you all agree that it was going lower, but it didn't? Not then anyway, did a little later. Slightly confusing these last few posts. I was watching the DOM at the time and had a different read(that worked for me) but curious to see a clear explanation(although now in hindsight) from tech etc.

EDIT: That came across a little aggressive haha, my bad. Didn't mean it that way, just found it interesting that weakness was the general consensus but it seemed to push higher first, then come off to new lows, seems to happen a fair bit, kind of like spotting the "main" move early in day?


----------



## tech/a

ThingyMajiggy said:


> So you all agree that it was going lower, but it didn't? Not then anyway, did a little later. Slightly confusing these last few posts. I was watching the DOM at the time and had a different read(that worked for me) but curious to see a clear explanation(although now in hindsight) from tech etc.




*TMJ*
Price at the right hand edge of the page did exactly as expected right up to my exit at the reversal shown on my last chart.



> My suspicion is that this is going to range as one side builds or distributes.---Longs selling into strength.




Which is exactly what it did for the rest of the night.
Until one side either buys in with huge volume and moves the market back up again
Distribution will keep happening until buyers are beaten to death and re treat or the big guys smash it down.

Both you'll see if it happens.

What your missing is that with futures you have more than buyers and sellers.
You have an ongoing battle of covering longs and shorts.
This has to be viewed in context when trading Futures.

The big guys (1000 + in a minute or 2) govern direction. *If you don't get on the right side of where they are going then you'll be fodder.*
I tried last night to run this real-time but the feed back was well after the next chart had formed so found doing this was very difficult.
You really need some sort of live hook up.
(a) I cant do it
(b) I doubt you guys or I could be bothered.

*When markets do very little they are actually doing a hell of a lot!!*


----------



## ThingyMajiggy

tech/a said:


> *TMJ*
> Price at the right hand edge of the page did exactly as expected right up to my exit at the reversal shown on my last chart.
> 
> 
> 
> Which is exactly what it did for the rest of the night.
> Until one side either buys in with huge volume and moves the market back up again
> Distribution will keep happening until buyers are beaten to death and re treat or the big guys smash it down.
> 
> Both you'll see if it happens.
> 
> What your missing is that with futures you have more than buyers and sellers.
> You have an ongoing battle of covering longs and shorts.
> This has to be viewed in context when trading Futures.
> 
> The big guys (1000 + in a minute or 2) govern direction. *If you don't get on the right side of where they are going then you'll be fodder.*
> I tried last night to run this real-time but the feed back was well after the next chart had formed so found doing this was very difficult.
> You really need some sort of live hook up.
> (a) I cant do it
> (b) I doubt you guys or I could be bothered.
> 
> *When markets do very little they are actually doing a hell of a lot!!*




Ahh sorry looked at those charts wrong, thought that very first chart you posted was early on in the piece and it hadn't rallied up to 12,000 yet, the different view/scale threw me off for the next chart, didn't actually look at what price it was the first time I looked at them!  

I'll just shut up


----------



## tech/a

ThingyMajiggy said:


> Ahh sorry looked at those charts wrong, thought that very first chart you posted was early on in the piece and it hadn't rallied up to 12,000 yet, the different view/scale threw me off for the next chart, didn't actually look at what price it was the first time I looked at them!
> 
> I'll just shut up




No don't shut up.
I take for granted that everyone sees what I've done.
There are probably others who missed it as you did but remained silent.
You're the voice!


----------



## ThingyMajiggy

tech/a said:


> No don't shut up.
> I take for granted that everyone sees what I've done.
> There are probably others who missed it as you did but remained silent.
> You're the voice!




Try and understand it? Should I make a noise and make it clear?  

How much pre-trade work do you do tech? Like looking at daily charts, I know you pick out your "control bars", but do you check the daily, weekly, hourly? What data is coming out? or just see it all as it comes and believe you'll get a read via VSA?


----------



## tech/a

ThingyMajiggy said:


> Try and understand it? Should I make a noise and make it clear?
> 
> How much pre-trade work do you do tech? Like looking at daily charts, I know you pick out your "control bars", but do you check the daily, weekly, hourly? What data is coming out? or just see it all as it comes and believe you'll get a read via VSA?




It gets easier the more you trade or watch live trading.
I check only the 30 min ant 9 min for control and then the 3 and 1 for the noise which makes up the days trading.
I can see 1000 go through in a min and that's when I want to know whether it was buying or selling.
These are directional trades 
They get out either side in dribbles so you wont see them.

Larger timeframes only for S&R levels of importance.

So about 5 mins tops.

Ill also know in 5 min wether Im in Sync.
If I just Don't get it Ill leave.
If I do its like reading a book you wrote!


----------



## ThingyMajiggy

tech/a said:


> It gets easier the more you trade or watch live trading.
> I check only the 30 min ant 9 min for control and then the 3 and 1 for the noise which makes up the days trading.
> I can see 1000 go through in a min and that's when I want to know whether it was buying or selling.
> These are directional trades
> They get out either side in dribbles so you wont see them.
> 
> Larger timeframes only for S&R levels of importance.
> 
> So about 5 mins tops.
> 
> Ill also know in 5 min wether Im in Sync.
> If I just Don't get it Ill leave.
> If I do its like reading a book you wrote!




Yeah sounds good, similar to myself. Kind of know what I'm looking for and what it looks like anyway, it almost doesn't make much difference I find, if I'm watching it and its looking like turning or some big players are coming in, that's all you need to know, doesn't really matter what point it is in history I don't think, it's how its reacting to it NOW and where it going to go. Seen plenty of "big" supp/res areas get totally demolished in a matter of seconds, all depends who's playing and where they want to do business in the here and now.


----------



## tech/a

DAX so far tonight and looking forward a bit


----------



## tech/a

Here is the test right on time.





SMASH goes support (Local)


----------



## debtfree

Looks like testing the lows of the last few day, do you think?


----------



## tech/a

This is an excellent chart of Cause and Effect.


----------



## tech/a

Time to leave this move although I believe the predominant long term direction is short.

Debtfree
testing of 11800 is highly likely


----------



## debtfree

I was watching it on Big Charts - 15 minute bar and seen the reversal on larger volume. As you said time to leave, don't hope ... just trade what's happening in the now time. Good lesson for me, nice job tonight and thanks for the charts.


----------



## fiftyeight

Good charts Tech thanks for putting them up. Will have a closer when I can.

Cheers


----------



## tech/a

WOW missed that 100 ticks in a few minutes!


----------



## tech/a

So its pulled up after massive buying then massive supply.
This is going to consolidate and I thought it would be good to watch the consolidation and see if we cant determine a direction for a trade.




So I'm flavoring long right now but if it becomes a wide pattern and not small and short then I will favor a change of direction to short.

How many bars 15 +
A small continuation pattern is generally less than 7
No mans land in between!


----------



## tech/a

A few minutes ago.


----------



## tech/a

Bit of a non event so I'm not going to trade tonight.
I get bored easily!


----------



## Lone Wolf

I've been out of the loop for a while. Trying to relearn again.

We had a strong push up on high vol through previous highs.
A much lower vol pullback.
An even lower volume small range up bar.

Any opinions on how this should be read?
If this was at the end of an up trend rather than breaking into new highs, I would have said the very high vol up bar followed by a down bar is selling. Weak up bar says buyers gone.

But this time I thought -
Very high vol up which is expected as it breaks the previous high and takes out the orders up there.
Lower vol down bar indicating not many sellers around to hammer it.
Weak up bar says not enough sellers to take control. Let the up move continue.

Obviously it did sell off. But considering a minor pullback after a break above previous highs, what would I want to see in the pullback to indicate a continuation upwards?


----------



## tech/a

This 15 min chart shows lots of effort to push prices higher but
no real result from price moving much higher.
Below is the 1 min chart which shows lots of churning.
I'm currently short but finger on the trigger to reverse if that's what is
the final outcome of the struggle.


----------



## tech/a

Reversed


----------



## tech/a

Reversed again


----------



## tech/a

Grinding ------ Stop at B/E If hit that's enough for me.




Out at old support 12002

Hard work.
Thats it for tonight sorry not more 
to see.


----------



## tech/a

And now it smashes down. Without me!
Here is the final trade. 30 ticks tonight
Left a lot on the table with the first 2 trades
and now this last one.
Not un happy-----just average trading.


----------



## Mdean

Trembling Hand said:


> Nah you probably still haven't got it. What was S/R an hour ago may no longer hold, or it may. Actions have consequences. That's the problem with static thinking and a chart example of 'this is how I trade'. The chart I posted a few days ago and the process was completely different to what I did yesterday. If you want an answer to that bit I underlined you will be in for a long and frustrating
> 
> No you misunderstand how large traders accumulate size (and the cunning ones). If you are a 500 lot trader you don't just hit the buy button and smash out for 500 lots into the market then do the opposite to get out. If you move size you have to go for large moves simply because it takes time to get in and get out. Now given that - you have to do a few things. Use that size to maximum advantage, protect yourself from being wrong because you haven't got stops (think about that for a while its important)and take entries and exits when people are spewing orders because that is where the volume is. See the chart that I used the other day for what is happening.
> 
> 1. You have large volume as its gapped down and kept on going down as people sell into an 'oversold' market that actually has some nice divergence. If you are Mr Big on every push down you hit up get nice fills creating those nice up trust bars.
> 
> 2. Now this needs some thought. Who would be stupid enough to be supplying large volume into up trust bars to new highs? Its clear someone is covering shorts and new traders are entering break out plays by buying but who would be stupid enough to sell into that?? People with large amount of holdings. Its the perfect time to lighten the load from what you accumulated at 1. What happens next? Panic dies down, demand drops, prices fall back into the old range as the break out dudes take heat and spew orders. Mr big is smiling as he has already booked a good profit on 1/3 of his holdings and his thinking "ok where can I top up?"
> 
> 3. The nice safe up trend breaks as demand keeps on falling and all the new longs take more heat. Mr Big who has been sitting back and is still bullish as all stink, has a good size from much lower and some room to take on more. As the trend breaks its clear because the volume picks up that people are selling but who would be stupid enough to buy? Someone has to be on the other side. Its Mr big *protecting *his position. Oldest trick in the book. Read Reminiscence of a Stock Operator.  It moves back into the old range,
> 
> 4.Supply dramatically dries up. Up she goes to new highs.
> 
> 5.More high volume trades. Lots of break out trades and panic shorts but who would be stupid enough to sell into that? I mean its new highs dude!- let it run! You know who it is, Mr big getting out and supplying all the volume.




TH, this post was really helpful, thanks for the detailed explanation.


----------



## Bayronus

After reading this entire thread over the last week I'm a little sad to see it has died down. I have gained a lot of insight from everyone's contributions and it has given me a lot to think about in terms of my own trading journey so I thank you all that have contributed. I hope to be able to contribute or at least pick your brains when this thread picks up again. For the moment though I'll keep reading and learning, testing and simming and continue to improve my trading. 

Thanks again to everyone who has made this thread what it is. 

P.S.
PAV - I hope you're feeling better mate.


----------



## >Apocalypto<

The DAX, 

from wanting to quit trading one moment to starting to see some light now. it's a hell of a market and really tests your mental composure. CL had it's moments bu never felt mentally drained as with trying to get somewhere with the DAX.

went through 5 ideas till reaching this point. made brokers a bit of coin while getting cut to sheds most weeks. 

think i am finally onto something... but a little early to call a sure thing. I tried 4 different time frames to finally settle on the 1 min. thought about this for a while. 1 min we all hear it's to hard to read and trade. for me atm it's the only time frame i can use with any accuracy. spent a lot of time on 5 min 3 min 2 min thinking the 1 min was a waste of time. 

traded live and demo since Dec last year trying and trying to find something. nonstop screen time every day. this post is more a emotional release then anything as my wife thinks i dumb trading and none of my mates would care to hear it all out. sorry ASF you're all i have.  I tried and tried on MT4 to trade the DAX but i could never get any ware. I don't think it's possible with MT4. Once i switched to Ninja Trader i started to progress quickly. 

I have been using FXCM through NT and thankfully i got trade station to look just like Ninja and I can read it like Ninja. Trading off chart trader is a killa best use it for free with a plug in due to the coms and buying cost. so i was a bit depressed this week as using Ninja was costly. tried one final time on MT4 failed badly. thankfully I got trade station with FXCM to be as close to NT as I need. Tonight's Live trades 2nd post.

Demo from May till his week below from ninja. all 1 min 1-12 point wins. basically trade trend changes. Just started live trading with FXCM tonight will give it a few months. Goal is to go back to Interactive and trade the DAX Future off Ninja with Book Trader... but full size futures are a while away yet. feel like i am finally getting it, on the sort term but 1 month from now I might be back to square one. this is the longest I have been profitable week to week using this approach. 

cheers for reading.


----------



## >Apocalypto<

>Apocalypto< said:


> The DAX,




Tonight's live trades


----------



## tech/a

Hi AP

Good to see another who enjoys the challenges of the DAX.

I note you have come to similar conclusions to myself.
The DAX has enough volume and range to trade 1min bars.
I also find it conforms to many VSA and old School ( T/A ) setups.
Mind you the higher timeframes in my opinion shouldn't be ignored.
A longterm position can be a game changer.

You can also hop on a run with confidence and pick up very quick profits.
It opporates in a comfortable timeframe for Aussi traders.

For me it's DAX and HSI if you want to trade index futures.


----------



## Gordon7

Hope it all goes well for you Apocalypto. 

I don't trade Futures but in my opinion on the higher frame daily chart the DAX looks to be the most vulnerable for a possible sharp move to the downside as it has been for a while. Next few days are critical. Best outlook over the medium term is for some sideways action to digest the sharp run up off the October 2014 lows.


----------



## avion

Good going Apocalypto, nothing beats screen time.


----------



## tech/a

Gordon7 said:


> Hope it all goes well for you Apocalypto.
> 
> I don't trade Futures but in my opinion on the higher frame daily chart the DAX looks to be the most vulnerable for a possible sharp move to the downside as it has been for a while. Next few days are critical. Best outlook over the medium term is for some sideways action to digest the sharp run up off the October 2014 lows.




You can trade long or short.
Skill of the technician to hop on the coat tails of the big movers.


----------



## Gordon7

tech/a said:


> You can trade long or short.
> Skill of the technician to hop on the coat tails of the big movers.



Yes indeed.

As a side note to my potentially bearish outlook statement below, I don' have any volume data for the DAX but I would like to see the volume data on the daily chart over the last half year or so and then look around the March April highs for any evidence of supply.


----------



## debtfree

Gordon7 said:


> Yes indeed.
> 
> As a side note to my potentially bearish outlook statement below, I don' have any volume data for the DAX but I would like to see the volume data on the daily chart over the last half year or so and then look around the March April highs for any evidence of supply.




Gordon7: At the moment I use bigcharts website to view the DAX futures with volume if it's any help to you.

When putting in the code I put in DAX and it will bring up a box which then I go down and select:
DE DAX DAX INDEX (EUREX) JUNE 2015
Go to advance chart and select indicators that you want such as volume.
You can see back to the start of the year.

Hope this helps .... Debtfree


----------



## CanOz

Gordon7 said:


> Yes indeed.
> 
> As a side note to my potentially bearish outlook statement below, I don' have any volume data for the DAX but I would like to see the volume data on the daily chart over the last half year or so and then look around the March April highs for any evidence of supply.




As requested, here is the DAX. The Bund (bonds in general) is/are taking a hammering as well, i guess its the Greek thingy still/bottom of the rates....

The DAX rejected the bottom of the bracket yesterday but we haven't got a good short covering rally yet. I suspect things might be tame, barring any big Greek news, until NFP is out of the way. Although the last couple of weeks has seen some pretty good volatility and good ranges for the day time frame trader.

As for the volume, it looks like the selloffs have been on volume...i don't use VSA so i can't comment on what the volume on a daily basis can be interpreted as. The bracket low was tested yesterday and its a major reference now. I'm sure the profiles will have some great references on the upper side of the recent range.


----------



## CanOz

The Shanghai Index....lots of big moves here. You can trade a good proxy for this with the Xina50 contract out of the SGX.


----------



## Gordon7

Thanks CanOz for the chart. 

From what I can see the volume at the peaks doesn't tell me much but interesting to see the rally to the lower high into mid May had little participation. 

I fully expect the bunds to continue to decline in the fullness of time (and that's got nothing to do with the chart). 

I've seen enough of these patterns (of which there are a few aspects to them) to know that the index is vulnerable to a sudden sell off at this point. Whilst the probability of this is still low (15% at a guess at this point) in terms of risk/reward in a short time frame it is something to bear in mind.


----------



## CanOz

Gordon7 said:


> Thanks CanOz for the chart.
> 
> From what I can see the volume at the peaks doesn't tell me much but interesting to see the rally to the lower high into mid March had little participation.
> 
> I fully expect the bunds to continue to decline in the fullness of time (and that's got nothing to do with the chart).
> 
> I've seen enough of these patterns (of which there are a few aspects to them) to know that the index is vulnerable to a sudden sell off at this point. Whilst the probability of this is still low (15% at a guess at this point) in terms of risk/reward in a short time frame it is something to bear in mind.




Yeah, the Bund and the Bobl will be the focus of my Euro session attention for a while. I agree that fundamentally it seems a good short. Mind you I'm only going on what the bond kings are saying, but the technical story agrees. I'm mostly just interested in the intra-day volatility and the opportunity that it presents.


----------



## barney

>Apocalypto< said:


> The DAX,
> 
> I tried and tried on MT4 to trade the DAX but i could never get any ware. I don't think it's possible with MT4.
> 
> cheers for reading.





Good to see you still at it Joe.  I also agree the 1 minute on the Dax sheds the most light .... then again I think that's true for Index trading in general.  I think its still important to check the daily range/moves plus the 4hr/1hr just in case you get caught chasing shadows (like I did earlier this week)

Is the reason you don't like MT4 for the Dax to do with the "synthetic" Volume??

Cheers.


----------



## >Apocalypto<

2nd live day with FXCM was really scared tonight, think my J225 position sell was playing on my mind. that was stopped out for -127. Looked like a range break to the downside but it was sucked back in. 

DAXI
Three trades tonight watched a heap go past was feeling a bit rabbit in the head lights so ended up with three. 10pts off the three. was scared to hold and enter... will look at the market again around 8ish. or might call it night if i looks like a flat Friday.


----------



## >Apocalypto<

tech/a said:


> Hi AP
> 
> Good to see another who enjoys the challenges of the DAX.
> 
> I note you have come to similar conclusions to myself.
> The DAX has enough volume and range to trade 1min bars.
> I also find it conforms to many VSA and old School ( T/A ) setups.
> Mind you the higher timeframes in my opinion shouldn't be ignored.
> A longterm position can be a game changer.
> 
> You can also hop on a run with confidence and pick up very quick profits.
> It opporates in a comfortable timeframe for Aussi traders.
> 
> For me it's DAX and HSI if you want to trade index futures.




Agree T/A very nice time slot you can trade for a few hours and go to bed. DAX is one of the most amazing main markets I have seen mind you the DOW can really run as well. Ive looked at the Daily DAX but to scared of how far it can counter. Yeh if you nailed one talking 400+ points makes CL tame. what happened in here I remember yourself Pav where very active. Is Pav still trading? 



Gordon7 said:


> Hope it all goes well for you Apocalypto.
> 
> I don't trade Futures but in my opinion on the higher frame daily chart the DAX looks to be the most vulnerable for a possible sharp move to the downside as it has been for a while. Next few days are critical. Best outlook over the medium term is for some sideways action to digest the sharp run up off the October 2014 lows.




Thanks, i still have L plates on 2 months ago i was ready to give short term away. was step forward two back, repeat repeat. see how this travels time is the true con firmer. 

Personally for me i never try to work out were a market is going... My position trading (not that flash) is all trend break based like my ST. 



avion said:


> Good going Apocalypto, nothing beats screen time.




yeh it's a great teacher, sitting there watching looking working out why this reversal turned in to a run and why others did not. 



barney said:


> Good to see you still at it Joe.  I also agree the 1 minute on the Dax sheds the most light .... then again I think that's true for Index trading in general.  I think its still important to check the daily range/moves plus the 4hr/1hr just in case you get caught chasing shadows (like I did earlier this week)
> 
> Is the reason you don't like MT4 for the Dax to do with the "synthetic" Volume??
> 
> Cheers.




Hi Barney, 

good to hear from you. yeh still chipping away. I started on 5 min and 3 min then 2min ended up on he 1min. but the flip of the 1min is the speed on the open things move real fast and you can get crap entries at times. I find after 730-11-30 there's some nice clean moves and it moves a lot slower. but you have to watch out for ranges. i don't check anything as I all i trade a short term trend change.... but what i do means little for how you look at it. 

MT4 you know I have thought about this for a fair while. I think mt4 it geared to make you emotional, the way the data is displayed makes you think something is something when its not something if that makes sense. i don't like the way the data is displayed. and personally I'll never you MT4 ever again. this is not the first time i have felt this way. 

i might be being stupid but even with my daily position trades i felt the urge to trade more on MT4 i might be crazy who knows.


----------



## cynic

Rotten night. Fairly appropriate way to end the rotten week i've had. Lots of juicy price action occurred right around the time my broker/provider's platform decided to malfunction. Coudn't get through to them on the phone either. All in all a FTSEing great way to end a very FTSEd up FTSEing week. Still expecting a call back from them so that I can voice my concerns in a very loud and emphatic manner!


----------



## >Apocalypto<

cynic said:


> Rotten night. Fairly appropriate way to end the rotten week i've had. Lots of juicy price action occurred right around the time my broker/provider's platform decided to malfunction. Coudn't get through to them on the phone either. All in all a FTSEing great way to end a very FTSEd up FTSEing week. Still expecting a call back from them so that I can voice my concerns in a very loud and emphatic manner!




if you don't mind me asking? who's your broker Cynic?


----------



## cynic

>Apocalypto< said:


> if you don't mind me asking? who's your broker Cynic?




They still trade under the name City Index despite having been acquired by Gain Capital last year.

Whilst I do at times grumble about them, I must confess to the fact that the service they've been delivering (thus far) is still superior to that offered by many of their competitors. 

I am, of course, being a bit wary on account of the recent change of ownership (but am hopeful that their reassurances prove correct).

I'll be quite interested to see how their platform performs during next month's NFP and will be adjusting my opinion accordingly.


----------



## >Apocalypto<

cynic said:


> They still trade under the name City Index despite having been acquired by Gain Capital last year.
> 
> Whilst I do at times grumble about them, I must confess to the fact that the service they've been delivering (thus far) is still superior to that offered by many of their competitors.
> 
> I am, of course, being a bit wary on account of the recent change of ownership (but am hopeful that their reassurances prove correct).
> 
> I'll be quite interested to see how their platform performs during next month's NFP and will be adjusting my opinion accordingly.




see how they go, good to hear there are positives as well. i can give a good reco for FXCM atm finding fills fast and no slippage so far. i was thinking about City before i went with fxcm for this small acc.

NFP you have courage i steer clear of it.


----------



## >Apocalypto<

still feeling like i am going to implode anytime so still lacking confidence to just trade. still spending time on the demo... i really shouldn't have given MT4 that last shot has damaged my confidence a lot. 

anyway, took three trades tonight 2wins and a loss. Net 9 points. going to call it a day might have another look around 9pm tonight. DAX had some nicer clean trends tonight. missed a few but slowly slowly


----------



## Bayronus

It's great to see some renewed interest in this thread. I hope I can contribute a little bit in the future but for now I'm still very much at the ground floor stage with research into a data feed/broker and learning ninja trader. I have not really begun simming on a grand scale but I do really enjoy NT's replay ability. 

Apocolypto - hang in there buddy, confidence is something that I'm finding to be a major factor in the ability for a person to trade. I'm not sure if you've heard of a guy called FuturesTrader71 but he talked about emotional capital in one of his webinars and it seems like an interesting concept. Sorry I can't offer more haha.


----------



## >Apocalypto<

> Bayronus
> 
> Apocolypto - hang in there buddy, confidence is something that I'm finding to be a major factor in the ability for a person to trade. I'm not sure if you've heard of a guy called FuturesTrader71 but he talked about emotional capital in one of his webinars and it seems like an interesting concept. Sorry I can't offer more haha.




thanks for the info, i will look into it

dipped my toes in a couple more times... still closing a little to fast.. difference between 4 and 7-9 pts. you will always get a few wrong... so holding is important imo as a few loses can cut into a good day.


----------



## CanOz

>Apocalypto< said:


> thanks for the info, i will look into it
> 
> dipped my toes in a couple more times... still closing a little to fast.. difference between 4 and 7-9 pts. you will always get a few wrong... so holding is important imo as a few loses can cut into a good day.




Heya mate, did you get that short at the edge of the abyss?

Dropped like there were no bids at all....all this while 80% of IGs traders were long


----------



## >Apocalypto<

CanOz said:


> Heya mate, did you get that short at the edge of the abyss?
> 
> Dropped like there were no bids at all....all this while 80% of IGs traders were long




Sorry Can missed it... didn't trade tonight... can you post a chart... Poor IG guys feel from them if that's the case.

**very nice sell just went off then though**


----------



## CanOz

Will try and post one after the HKFE open....

There is a nice abyss waiting to be tested on the HHI and HSI as well. The HHI being the bigger opportunity. I call these areas of no volume an abyss because the market really accelerates through these and they provide some great opportunities....On these two charts you can see the area below the the current brackets. Each market is currently at value on the yearly VWAPs. This bracket could hold but today i expect the low extremes to get tested anyway. IF we can trap enough short then maybe we'll get a covering rally if the XINA50 can drag them up...


----------



## sinner

Out of curiosity, for those "transitioning to futures trading", what kind of expected long term return are you after? Would you be happy with 5% per annum? 10%? 30%?


----------



## tech/a

sinner said:


> Out of curiosity, for those "transitioning to futures trading", what kind of expected long term return are you after? Would you be happy with 5% per annum? 10%? 30%?




For me I'm happy with an average return of $500 to $2500 when I sit down and trade the DAX.
Sure I have losses of $200 to $1000----but on average.
. 
I only trade 1 or 2 contracts and only a few hrs. a week. So I guess you are benchmarking your % return on say margin to trade the future/s. Its about $6500/contract for the DAX---so I would be aiming over a year for many times the return on capital on margin.

I wouldn't be happy with 5% as that would mean that I've spent a whole lot of time for little return
5% $13000 = $650

Its not something I want to do for a living.
Couldn't think of anything worse.

I enjoy the challenge and being rewarded for accepting it.


----------



## sinner

tech/a said:


> For me I'm happy with an average return of $500 to $2500 when I sit down and trade the DAX.
> Sure I have losses of $200 to $1000----but on average.
> .
> I only trade 1 or 2 contracts and only a few hrs. a week. So I guess you are benchmarking your % return on say margin to trade the future/s. Its about $6500/contract for the DAX---so I would be aiming over a year for many times the return on capital on margin.
> 
> I wouldn't be happy with 5% as that would mean that I've spent a whole lot of time for little return
> 5% $13000 = $650
> 
> Its not something I want to do for a living.
> Couldn't think of anything worse.
> 
> I enjoy the challenge and being rewarded for accepting it.




I just ran some numbers using the back of my napkin:

Assuming your avg win week at ~$1500 (halfway between $500 - $2500), avg loss week ~$600 (halfway between $200 - $1000) with a 50% win rate, that is:

$1,500 * 26 wks = $39,000
$600 * 26 wks = $15,600

$39,000 - $15,600 = $23400

assuming a 30% flat tax rate, after tax profits at $16,380 per annum, or $315 per week, or ~$100/hr assuming you only trade a few hours per week.


----------



## tech/a

Based on those assumptions
your napkin maths are fine.


----------



## minwa

sinner said:


> Out of curiosity, for those "transitioning to futures trading", what kind of expected long term return are you after? Would you be happy with 5% per annum? 10%? 30%?




30% to be minimum happy (satisfied)
50% to be very happy (target)

with less than 15% max peak to valley draw down.


----------



## tech/a

Based upon want benchmark?


----------



## tech/a

So perhaps ghats not clear

The % return what is that benchmarked to?

A capital base of $200k/$50/$20

Really 50% as no meaning without a reference.


----------



## minwa

tech/a said:


> So perhaps ghats not clear
> 
> The % return what is that benchmarked to?
> 
> A capital base of $200k/$50/$20
> 
> Really 50% as no meaning without a reference.




What do you mean it has no sense ? Total trading account equity obviously. When I started with $3k I aimed for 50%. I now trade 6 figures (no not all compounded from $3k, had deposits) I still seek 50%.

Not understanding your question. 50% on $10 is not much yes but if you risk 5cents each trade and return $5 for the year over a series of trades I will be impressed. If you going to go into the psychology/scaling is not linear then that's another discussion.


----------



## tech/a

minwa said:


> What do you mean it has no sense ? Total trading account equity obviously. When I started with $3k I aimed for 50%. I now trade 6 figures (no not all compounded from $3k, had deposits) I still seek 50%.
> 
> Not understanding your question. 50% on $10 is not much yes but if you risk 5cents each trade and return $5 for the year over a series of trades I will be impressed. If you going to go into the psychology/scaling is not linear then that's another discussion.




Lets borrow Sinners napkin and make some assumptions in line with Sinners 50%.
$500,000 return 50% = $250,000.

Taking his table maths on my return based on his 50% and averaging assumptions $39,000 on one
contract pre tax.

So trading 7 contracts would do it.
Lets assume $10000 per contract margin.
If you have a method that swings wildly 7 x margin over the full 7 contracts you'll need a trade equity of $500000 
I'm assuming that's the case in your instance.

If not then you wont need $500K just a portion of it.
So it is important.


----------



## sinner

minwa said:


> 30% to be minimum happy (satisfied)
> 50% to be very happy (target)
> 
> with less than 15% max peak to valley draw down.




This is actually the kind of answer I was interested in.

So assuming a starting capital of $100,000 you make an annualised return of $30,000 - $50,000. After tax @ 30%, we are talking $21,000-$35,000 in profit.

How is your track record so far? You don't have to get specific, but I am curious about how many years you have traded with this expectation and how many years of those was your expectation met? How many years in the future do you expect to be able to maintain that kind of posture successfully?

Do you feel the stress and risk (leverage risk especially) is worth it? 

Personally I have stopped trading with margin (only leverage through buying puts/calls now) and pretty much do only long term investing now (and some hedging), with an expectation of 7-20% per annum total returns over the very long term. This takes up almost none of my time, is extremely low stress and comparatively low risk.

I used to do intraday FX but stopped that kind of thing a while back and felt extremely validated by my decision when the SNB removed the EUR peg and caused EURCHF to go bananas.


----------



## skc

sinner said:


> This is actually the kind of answer I was interested in.
> 
> So assuming a starting capital of $100,000 you make an annualised return of $30,000 - $50,000. After tax @ 30%, we are talking $21,000-$35,000 in profit.
> 
> How is your track record so far? You don't have to get specific, but I am curious about how many years you have traded with this expectation and how many years of those was your expectation met? How many years in the future do you expect to be able to maintain that kind of posture successfully?
> 
> Do you feel the stress and risk (leverage risk especially) is worth it?
> 
> Personally I have stopped trading with margin (only leverage through buying puts/calls now) and pretty much do only long term investing now (and some hedging), with an expectation of 7-20% per annum total returns over the very long term. This takes up almost none of my time, is extremely low stress and comparatively low risk.
> 
> I used to do intraday FX but stopped that kind of thing a while back and felt extremely validated by my decision when the SNB removed the EUR peg and caused EURCHF to go bananas.




Sinner, 

With futures I think looking at % return is not meaningful. If one has legitimate trading prowess, the correct metric would be something like profit per contract traded per month (or quarter or year). 

With % return, there are too many ways to define "account equity". 

E.g. 5 traders all made $25k this year trading 1 contract.

Trader 1 said his return was 250% as he calculated it based on the $5k he needed for margin.

Trader 2 said his return was 100% as he stared the year with $25k in his account.

Trader 3 said his return was 50% as he said he's allocated $50k to his trading overall, even though some of that cash was not physically in the trading account.

Trader 4 said her (yes it's a girl) return was 25%. She worked it out based on allocating enough capital so her drawdown was less than 10%. The maximum drawdown was $10k, making it a notional capital of $100k.

Trader 5 said his return was 12.5%. He worked it out based on the fact that the face value of the contract was $200k, and he doesn't use any leverage.

So what should a trader aim for? 12.5% or 250%? Or may be just plain $25k per contract per year traded.


----------



## sinner

skc said:


> Sinner,
> 
> With futures I think looking at % return is not meaningful. If one has legitimate trading prowess, the correct metric would be something like profit per contract traded per month (or quarter or year).




I calculate it only based on account equity like Minwa suggested.

You have some money. You could take it and start a bakery, or, invest it into an index fund, or trade it. To me they are all the same in the sense of "you have invested this money into a business".

The expected return on that money is what I'm specifically interested in. I think that would be trader #2 in your example.

What they should aim for, I dunno, I'm interested in expectations (i.e. I expect to sell 5,000,000 bread rolls this year at 30c a roll with 27c in costs per roll produced; or, I expect to make 1,000,000 trades at a 30% win rate and 1:5 Risk/Return Ratio). I'm also interested in how those expectations are arrived at.


----------



## skc

sinner said:


> I calculate it only based on account equity like Minwa suggested.
> 
> You have some money. You could take it and start a bakery, or, invest it into an index fund, or trade it. To me they are all the same in the sense of "you have invested this money into a business".
> 
> The expected return on that money is what I'm specifically interested in. I think that would be trader #2 in your example.
> 
> What they should aim for, I dunno, I'm interested in expectations (i.e. I expect to sell 5,000,000 bread rolls this year at 30c a roll with 27c in costs per roll produced; or, I expect to make 1,000,000 trades at a 30% win rate and 1:5 Risk/Return Ratio). I'm also interested in how those expectations are arrived at.




I guess what I am trying to say is, asking others what their % return was is meaningless unless you know the specifics behind it.

Yes... you can sort of use it to compare alternate actions, as well as assess performance over time if you apply the methodology consistently.

As to arriving at the expectations... it's really a chicken and egg problem. You can't make meaningfully expectations if you haven't traded, yet how does one start trading if he/she doesn't know what to expect? To me the only way around that is to give it a good go in a risk controlled manner, and let it unfold to see if there's meaningful reward at the end of it. That's how I started trading


----------



## peter2

I operate like Trader 3 and allocate an amount of capital to the business of trading leveraged products. I position size based on the allocated capital (and realized P&L). One benefit with using leveraged products is that I don't have to place all the business capital in the brokerage account. This reduces the pain when the broker goes out of business (happens too frequently). There's a higher probability that my broker will go out of business before I get a margin call. 

The EOY P&L is expressed against the amount of capital allocated for the business of leveraged trading. 

I agree with minwa's minimum expectation (risk 0.5%/T, 200T/yr at an expectancy of 0.3).


----------



## CanOz

200T per year? Sheesh, I've done 130 since the 11 th of May


----------



## Trembling Hand

skc said:


> As to arriving at the expectations... it's really a chicken and egg problem. You can't make meaningfully expectations if you haven't traded, yet how does one start trading if he/she doesn't know what to expect? To me the only way around that is to give it a good go in a risk controlled manner, and let it unfold to see if there's meaningful reward at the end of it. That's how I started trading




Yep. It only takes the slightest bit of experience and imagination about what is possible. Then after that it is faith in your ability. Your ability to make a profit out of the opportunities.

Personally after 10 years of trading intraday I don't think there is anything more destructive to long term survival and indeed mental health for a short term trader than a % target based on a low to mid level capital base. When you start you should be doing a rough break even analysis to see what you need to survive and make sure your capital is adequate but % return for trading is a bogus concept. 

You just have to have a look back at this thread a few pages to see what happened to Pav once he drew a target line on his P&L chart.


----------



## skc

Trembling Hand said:


> Yep. It only takes the slightest bit of experience and imagination about what is possible. Then after that it is faith in your ability. Your ability to make a profit out of the opportunities.
> 
> Personally after 10 years of trading intraday I don't think there is anything more destructive to long term survival and indeed mental health for a short term trader than a % target based on a low to mid level capital base. When you start you should be doing a rough break even analysis to see what you need to survive and make sure your capital is adequate but % return for trading is a bogus concept.




Long time mate. How's it going?


----------



## Trembling Hand

skc said:


> Long time mate. How's it going?




Back into it after a long hol (6 months ). Not much changes though hey?


----------



## fiftyeight

I recently read Reminiscence of a Stock Operator, and there is an anecdote about how the market will never buy you a new a coat or pay a bill. But much more eloquently put.

It was one of the many lessons I took away from the book, and have changed the way I set my targets/goals


----------



## minwa

sinner said:


> How is your track record so far? You don't have to get specific, but I am curious about how many years you have traded with this expectation and how many years of those was your expectation met? How many years in the future do you expect to be able to maintain that kind of posture successfully?




This is only 1.5th year of trading with this expectation. I only got consistently profitable in 2013. I don't mind specifics. Keep in mind it's not all intraday futures trading. I intraday trade ES, swing trade FX (GBPUSD only) & hold options positions over a few days.







Achieved it last year, this year currently on target.

Rebalancing funds in different methods my opinion is my key to reducing draw downs & is what I will expect will be able to maintain into the future succcessfully as market conditions change.






sinner said:


> Do you feel the stress and risk (leverage risk especially) is worth it?




Yeah worth it. This is my career and I intend to make it "big", so my mindset will be different to a salaryman shifting into retirement who just wants some extra icing on their already established retirement fund. But I am relatively young and unencumbered with family burdens it also might be different if I had wife & kids that relies on me to feed them. 



sinner said:


> Personally I have stopped trading with margin (only leverage through buying puts/calls now) and pretty much do only long term investing now (and some hedging), with an expectation of 7-20% per annum total returns over the very long term. This takes up almost none of my time, is extremely low stress and comparatively low risk.
> 
> I used to do intraday FX but stopped that kind of thing a while back and felt extremely validated by my decision when the SNB removed the EUR peg and caused EURCHF to go bananas.




Absolutely nothing wrong with that - sounds great in fact that you find intraday is not your thing. Franc & Yen are the most manipulated majors in my opinion. 



sinner said:


> I calculate it only based on account equity like Minwa suggested.
> 
> You have some money. You could take it and start a bakery, or, invest it into an index fund, or trade it. To me they are all the same in the sense of "you have invested this money into a business".
> 
> The expected return on that money is what I'm specifically interested in.






peter2 said:


> I operate like Trader 3 and allocate an amount of capital to the business of trading leveraged products. I position size based on the allocated capital (and realized P&L). One benefit with using leveraged products is that I don't have to place all the business capital in the brokerage account. This reduces the pain when the broker goes out of business (happens too frequently). There's a higher probability that my broker will go out of business before I get a margin call.
> 
> The EOY P&L is expressed against the amount of capital allocated for the business of leveraged trading.
> 
> I agree with minwa's minimum expectation (risk 0.5%/T, 200T/yr at an expectancy of 0.3).




That's how I view it. It's calculated based on how much you invest into the business, whether you put only a bit in the trading account for margin, the capital is still set aside for trading purposes. The people who calculate % on margin will have wild draw downs, based on their margin. Personally prefence but I do it like if I was investing into a fund - how much money I send to them is what they deem as trading equity & return derived from that amount.



skc said:


> I guess what I am trying to say is, asking others what their % return was is meaningless unless you know the specifics behind it.
> 
> Yes... you can sort of use it to compare alternate actions, as well as assess performance over time if you apply the methodology consistently.




The specifics to me is drawdowns.


----------



## VSntchr

minwa said:


> View attachment 62994
> 
> View attachment 62993




Nice work minwa, those equity curves are pretty. 
Are those summary pages coming from your broker, or an external analysis program?


----------



## CanOz

VSntchr said:


> Nice work minwa, those equity curves are pretty.
> Are those summary pages coming from your broker, or an external analysis program?




Yeah totally echo that Mina, that's an enviable track record. Any prop shop would take that and give you some size...I'm sure you've already got a view on that.

Yes, also curious about the stats software as I'm looking for something I can dump into from NT.

Also curious how you execute your trades (Dom?) and of course who you execute through and the round turn cost if you don't mind.


----------



## minwa

VSntchr said:


> Nice work minwa, those equity curves are pretty.
> Are those summary pages coming from your broker, or an external analysis program?






CanOz said:


> Yeah totally echo that Mina, that's an enviable track record. Any prop shop would take that and give you some size...I'm sure you've already got a view on that.
> 
> Yes, also curious about the stats software as I'm looking for something I can dump into from NT.
> 
> Also curious how you execute your trades (Dom?) and of course who you execute through and the round turn cost if you don't mind.






Thanks guys, it's from Interactive Broker's "portfolio analyst" program (web-based) which is free for all account holders. 

CanOz I'm assuming you're talking about the futures part, ES is around $3.00 something USD per contract after exchange fees. I was never into DOM, hurts my eyes. My ES & GBPUSD trading is time & price based. Mostly influenced by works of Larry Williams/George Angell/Tony Crabell. FX a former CitiBank trader showed me the ropes. Options is my own maths-based work on volatility/premium/time.

I stress again I credit fund rebalancing for the continued smoothness instead of just putting my money into the system that I think will be the highest performer. I'm usually proven wrong later. Perhaps confidence is a early sign of a system going into a hiccup. Or maybe it's just the very cyclical nature of the markets, ups & downs.


----------



## >Apocalypto<

Trembling Hand said:


> Back into it after a long hol (6 months ). Not much changes though hey?




nice to see you're back TH..........


----------



## >Apocalypto<

minwa said:


> Thanks guys, it's from Interactive Broker's "portfolio analyst" program (web-based) which is free for all account holders.
> 
> CanOz I'm assuming you're talking about the futures part, ES is around $3.00 something USD per contract after exchange fees. I was never into DOM, hurts my eyes. My ES & GBPUSD trading is time & price based. Mostly influenced by works of Larry Williams/George Angell/Tony Crabell. FX a former CitiBank trader showed me the ropes. Options is my own maths-based work on volatility/premium/time.
> 
> I stress again I credit fund rebalancing for the continued smoothness instead of just putting my money into the system that I think will be the highest performer. I'm usually proven wrong later. Perhaps confidence is a early sign of a system going into a hiccup. Or maybe it's just the very cyclical nature of the markets, ups & downs.




nice returns Minwa!

seeing and hearing things like this keep me pushing away.... 

agree on set % returns never do it as every day is different.


----------



## CanOz

>Apocalypto< said:


> nice to see you're back TH..........




Yep, echo that one as well. I've missed you on the bid TH...heck they all have!


----------



## Trembling Hand

CanOz said:


> Yep, echo that one as well. I've missed you on the bid TH...heck they all have!




LOL @ the DAX. I'll need another holiday after that!!!


----------



## CanOz

IMF jawboning. I was looking at my trading PC from iPad in bed when the news hit....thought there was a problem with the app for minute.....what a buzz kill.


----------



## CanOz

TH, Curious as to your thoughts on the obvious divergence between the HHI, HSI, XINA50 and the silly Shanghai contract? It's been a battle for the last few months between them all!


----------



## Trembling Hand

CanOz said:


> TH, Curious as to your thoughts on the obvious divergence between the HHI, HSI, XINA50 and the silly Shanghai contract? It's been a battle for the last few months between them all!




Ha NFI! I haven't looked at a honkers contract since November. Gone cold turkey. I'm playing the Euro game now. imp:


----------



## >Apocalypto<

Trembling Hand said:


> Ha NFI! I haven't looked at a honkers contract since November. Gone cold turkey. I'm playing the Euro game now. imp:




Euro currency futures, Interest rates or Indexes TH?


----------



## avion

avion said:


> I do believe there are more rewarding opportunities on DAX than HSI (considering they seem to be two craziest indexes around as far as i know...) but understanding the beast is a challenge to put it modestly.
> 
> ...




Sprechen Sie Deutsch Mein Herr!

Deutscher Aktienindex ist das besten!


----------



## CanOz

Trembling Hand said:


> Ha NFI! I haven't looked at a honkers contract since November. Gone cold turkey. I'm playing the Euro game now. imp:




They haven't got you spreading Eurodollars have they?


----------



## Trembling Hand

CanOz said:


> They haven't got you spreading Eurodollars have they?




Nah just the DAX.


----------



## CanOz

Trembling Hand said:


> Nah just the DAX.




Ah that explains why it went so bid until you went to bed!


----------



## cynic

Trembling Hand said:


> LOL @ the DAX. I'll need another holiday after that!!!




+1.

I'll be needing some seriously intensive care after this past week's action!


----------



## CanOz

cynic said:


> +1.
> 
> I'll be needing some seriously intensive care after this past week's action!




That was a tough old grind down though Cynic, are you happy to see it finally break again?


----------



## cynic

CanOz said:


> That was a tough old grind down though Cynic, are you happy to see it finally break again?




Last Tuesday, I was talking to a friend of mine and basically saying that after days of punishment I was now hedged sufficiently that I could survive a continuation of the downtrend but would be unable to survive any sudden bounces.

Three of my accounts got blown apart Wednesday night. This has been my worst year ever! (Yes! I was trading during the GFC).


----------



## tech/a

Trembling Hand said:


> LOL @ the DAX. I'll need another holiday after that!!!
> 
> View attachment 62997




Thought you'd have enough for another holiday from that!


----------



## CanOz

cynic said:


> Last Tuesday, I was talking to a friend of mine and basically saying that after days of punishment I was now hedged sufficiently that I could survive a continuation of the downtrend but would be unable to survive any sudden bounces.
> 
> Three of my accounts got blown apart Wednesday night. This has been my worst year ever! (Yes! I was trading during the GFC).




Mmmm, sorry to hear that mate, thats rough!


----------



## >Apocalypto<

cynic said:


> Last Tuesday, I was talking to a friend of mine and basically saying that after days of punishment I was now hedged sufficiently that I could survive a continuation of the downtrend but would be unable to survive any sudden bounces.
> 
> Three of my accounts got blown apart Wednesday night. This has been my worst year ever! (Yes! I was trading during the GFC).




what where you trading on Wednesday Cynic? I had a average one as well. lost 5% found out hard way i am struggling to read entry's on FXCM charts.


----------



## avion

cynic said:


> Three of my accounts got blown apart Wednesday night. This has been my worst year ever! (Yes! I was trading during the GFC).




Now you are getting to be ready to trade and no i am not being cynic!

They say success comes from either inspiration or desperation. I think any trader is kidding themselves if they think it comes from the former. Just sayin'...


----------



## cynic

>Apocalypto< said:


> what where you trading on Wednesday Cynic? I had a average one as well. lost 3% found out hard way i am struggling to read entry's on FXCM charts.




That demonic son of a bourse from the undiscovered depths of Hades (i.e. the DAX).


----------



## Trembling Hand

tech/a said:


> Thought you'd have enough for another holiday from that!




ha! It was certainly some good match practise anyway to kick off the new season. 

It may be beginners luck, or maybe the large break from the screens, but I'm finding the DAX much more readable than the HSI.


----------



## >Apocalypto<

cynic said:


> That demonic son of a bourse from the undiscovered depths of Hades (i.e. the DAX).




feel u mate, so rewarding and destructive.........

just trade smaller / have a break till you feel right again.


----------



## >Apocalypto<

double wash out...


----------



## tech/a

Trembling Hand said:


> ha! It was certainly some good match practise anyway to kick off the new season.
> 
> It may be beginners luck, or maybe the large break from the screens, but I'm finding the DAX much more readable than the HSI.




You'll see that many familiar faces you'll think your at your local.


----------



## sinner

cynic said:


> Last Tuesday, I was talking to a friend of mine and basically saying that after days of punishment I was now hedged sufficiently that I could survive a continuation of the downtrend but would be unable to survive any sudden bounces.
> 
> Three of my accounts got blown apart Wednesday night. This has been my worst year ever! (Yes! I was trading during the GFC).




Rough. 

My condolences (why so many separate accounts?). 

A couple of thoughts, that after 4 consecutive down closes the probability of an up day is relatively high, at least 50%!

So I think putting yourself in any position where you are "unable to survive" given the outcome of an uncertain situation is probably worth working on (to me the bounce looks pretty much like 5 day mean reversion on the daily chart and the dip that earned a LOL from TH barely registers as much more than noise).





vols actually went down...


----------



## cynic

sinner said:


> Rough.
> 
> My condolences (why so many separate accounts?).
> 
> A couple of thoughts, that after 4 consecutive down closes the probability of an up day is relatively high, at least 50%!
> 
> So I think putting yourself in any position where you are "unable to survive" given the outcome of an uncertain situation is probably worth working on (to me the bounce looks pretty much like 5 day mean reversion on the daily chart and the dip that earned a LOL from TH barely registers as much more than noise).





I couldn't agree more. 

My usual strategy is to implement systems that are designed not to run into situations such as these. Every now and then I make a seemingly innocent revision when redeploying an existing strategy, and, sure as nightfall the DAX finds the chink in the armour and exploits it to devastating effect.

The reasons for multiple accounts are to circumvent certain logistical issues that are broker/provider and/or platform related.


----------



## Trembling Hand

sinner said:


> the dip that earned a LOL from TH barely registers as much more than noise
> 
> vols actually went down...




But the Diff is I was trading it short term and you are looking at a daily chart the day after. Any move that wipes out a day long rally in 3 minutes is a notable move.


----------



## PolarBull

Hi All,

Thanks a lot for running such a great thread.

I had a look at DAX price action a few days ago, very impressed. One problem for me is minimum price for one point is â‚¬25, and with such volatility even on 1m chart, my stop would have been at least 10 points (but in reality even up to 15-20) making it impossible for me to trade.

I was wondering if there is a liquid mini contract that can be traded via Interactive Brokers?

Thanks.


----------



## fiftyeight

IG markets has a EUR 5 mini CFD or a A$1 CFD if you are happy with trading the cash market

But you will still need data from another source if you require volume


----------



## >Apocalypto<

well my test of trading 1 min with FXCM has come to a close. Execution time the problem. while i had a profitable week last week 100 lots tonight (10 a point) are just so slow to open and close. 

so it's going to be impossible to mange that. think till i can get back on IB with Ninja the dream is on hold. hope to report more back on it one day in the future. 

still trading off the daily and 8 hour but for now scalping is over. (live anyway) 

26k in 7 weeks on my demo execution on that is perfect maybe a little to perfect meaning my 1 min stuff will always be a pipe dream. 

good trading all


----------



## Trembling Hand

>Apocalypto< said:


> well my test of trading 1 min with FXCM has come to a close. Execution time the problem. while i had a profitable week last week 100 lots tonight (10 a point) are just so slow to open and close.
> 
> so it's going to be impossible to mange that. think till i can get back on IB with Ninja the dream is on hold. hope to report more back on it one day in the future.
> 
> still trading off the daily and 8 hour but for now scalping is over. (live anyway)
> 
> 26k in 7 weeks on my demo execution on that is perfect maybe a little to perfect meaning my 1 min stuff will always be a pipe dream.
> 
> good trading all




Thats a shame. From my little dabble CFDs have actual better executions than the real market because they are MM trades going trough in OZ servers rather than the latency delay you have to deal with getting info and sending orders from here to Euroland.

Many a time sending orders to Eurex I'm hitting out with limits now and missing the prices just cuz of the time delay. Somewhat frustrating.

On another point. Has anyone actually made the shift from trading small $ CFDs to actually getting it right with the futs? To me it seems like a jump just not made? Is there something in that?


----------



## CanOz

Trembling Hand said:


> Many a time sending orders to Eurex I'm hitting out with limits now and missing the prices just cuz of the time delay. Somewhat frustrating.:




TH, are you actually able to test the latency to Eurex from MLB?


----------



## cynic

Trembling Hand said:


> ....Many a time sending orders to Eurex I'm hitting out with limits now and missing the prices just cuz of the time delay. Somewhat frustrating.
> 
> On another point. Has anyone actually made the shift from trading small $ CFDs to actually getting it right with the futs? To me it seems like a jump just not made? Is there something in that?




I strongly suspect that I'm getting better fills on my DAX CFDs due to the practice of stop harvesting by the liquidity providers.

At times some of my limit entry orders open and achieve their TP intrasecond!

As for trading on a real exchange, I was having a discussion with an actual futures broker the other week about their product offering. 

The account could only be funded during Australian business hours. 

Further to this the brokerage do not offer a 24 hour margin call, but simply send a few emails and then autoclose positions in the event of margin. 

That was enough to convince me that it would be logistically impractical (and financially dangerous) for me to even attempt trading DAX futures with this broker.

So, whilst I thoroughly distrust the OTC industry, for now, they appear to be my best available option.


----------



## Trembling Hand

CanOz said:


> TH, are you actually able to test the latency to Eurex from MLB?




To Ib EURO servers,


----------



## Trembling Hand

cynic said:


> I strongly suspect that I'm getting better fills on my DAX CFDs due to the practice of stop harvesting by the liquidity providers.
> 
> At times some of my limit entry orders open and achieve their TP intrasecond!
> 
> As for trading on a real exchange, I was having a discussion with an actual futures broker the other week about their product offering.
> 
> The account could only be funded during Australian business hours.
> 
> Further to this the brokerage do not offer a 24 hour margin call, but simply send a few emails and then autoclose positions in the event of margin.
> 
> That was enough to convince me that it would be logistically impractical (and financially dangerous) for me to even attempt trading DAX futures with this broker.
> 
> So, whilst I thoroughly distrust the OTC industry, for now, they appear to be my best available option.




 Couple of questions,

1. Have you actually tested it with a proper broker?

2. The instant fill and following instant target hit is not the sole domain of CFDs, many a time I have regretted having auto bracket orders with fill entries because the target has been hit before I can open up the distance.

3. When you have these so called " stop harvesting by the liquidity providers" do you have actual and reliable exchange data to compare it to?

4. Why the hell is your system reliant on a margin call? (this if frigin nutz and completely not conductive to long term survival and sanity)


----------



## cynic

Trembling Hand said:


> Couple of questions,
> 
> 1. Have you actually tested it with a proper broker?
> 
> 2. The instant fill and following instant target hit is not the sole domain of CFDs, many a time I have regretted having auto bracket orders with fill entries because the target has been hit before I can open up the distance.
> 
> 3. When you have these so called " stop harvesting by the liquidity providers" do you have actual and reliable exchange data to compare it to?
> 
> 4. Why the hell is your system reliant on a margin call? (this if frigin nutz and completely not conductive to long term survival and sanity)



1. No.

2. Yes that is true. My response to your third point will hopefully clarify my reason for believing that I've benefitted from stop harvesting.

3. No. I can tell by the price action. Frequently limit orders are avoided by mere fractions of points during sharp moves and yet when a fill is finally achieved, it is usually at a superior price to the original target. i.e. price action regularly misses the target by less than a point, but when the target is finally achieved it has almost invariably been overshot. I've been witnessing these price behaviours with at least one in every two to three of my orders every single day that I've traded for at least two years!

4. Limited capital combined with the need to maintain multiple accounts to accommodate my methodology and accompanied by a general distrust of the industry.


----------



## Trembling Hand

cynic said:


> 3. No. I can tell by the price action.




So what data are you using to come to these conclusions?


----------



## cynic

Trembling Hand said:


> So what data are you using to come to these conclusions?




Visual observation of price action and it's reaction to my limit orders.


----------



## Trembling Hand

cynic said:


> Visual observation of price action and it's reaction to my limit orders.




Yeah...... so who is putting the data on your screen that you think "liquidity providers" are screwing with.


----------



## cynic

Trembling Hand said:


> Yeah...... so who is putting the data on your screen that you think "liquidity providers" are screwing with.




I used to suspect the CFD provider, and once upon a time I believe that was the case. They've gotten smarter since the retail traders started waking up to the practice. Now every provider is quoting similar prices and yet the seemingly "limit/stop order aware" price behavior is continuing nonetheless.


----------



## Trembling Hand

cynic said:


> I used to suspect the CFD provider, and once upon a time I believe that was the case. They've gotten smarter since the retail traders started waking up to the practice. Now every provider is quoting similar prices and yet the seemingly "limit/stop order aware" price behavior is continuing nonetheless.




So I'll guess the answer to my question and say you have not got real market data but are only going on synthetic prices provided by whatever the bucketshops are giving you?


----------



## cynic

Trembling Hand said:


> So I'll guess the answer to my question and say you have not got real market data but are only going on synthetic prices provided by whatever the bucketshops are giving you?




Correct!!


----------



## Trembling Hand

Trembling Hand said:


> So I'll guess the answer to my question and say you have not got real market data but are only going on synthetic prices provided by whatever the bucketshops are giving you?






cynic said:


> Correct!!




Then how can you say with any certainty that you are correct if you have not seen what actually happened in the market?

And do you think you have any chance of success in an extremely hard field with vastly inferior tools and possibly  fundamentally bent beliefs from said inferior tools?


----------



## cynic

Trembling Hand said:


> Then how can you say with any certainty that you are correct if you have not seen what actually happened in the market?




I cannot say it with absolute certainty. 

I can only say that there is certainly something so highly suspicious going on that it cannot be explained away as mere happenstance and must have some underlying cause.

Numerous times this past week, I've been chatting with a friend whilst trading and letting him know where my nearest limit order has just been placed. Whilst watching the subsequent price action we've ended up laughing our heads off at how easy it is to use limit orders to create temporary support and resistance levels when trading such products.


> And do you think you have any chance of success in an extremely hard field with vastly inferior tools and possibly  fundamentally bent beliefs from said inferior tools?




As you well know the chances are generally slim for any retail trader when trading such products. 

At the commencement of this financial year, I believed my techniques were sufficiently adept to grant me a far superior prospect to the average retail trader. 

However, the fact that I'm about to complete my fourth consecutive losing quarter (the last time this happened was over five years ago!) is calling my trading capability in the current climate into question.


----------



## Trembling Hand

cynic said:


> I cannot say it with absolute certainty.
> 
> I can only say that there is certainly something so highly suspicious going on that it cannot be explained away as mere happenstance and must have some underlying cause.
> 
> Numerous times this past week, I've been chatting with a friend whilst trading and letting him know where my nearest limit order has just been placed. Whilst watching the subsequent price action we've ended up laughing our heads off at how easy it is to use limit orders to create temporary support and resistance levels when trading such products.




Mate you know there are a lot of people who trade CFDs who use the real data from the exchange. Do you understand what a massive free arb opportunity there is if the CFDs deviate from the underlying instrument?


----------



## cynic

Trembling Hand said:


> Mate you know there are a lot of people who trade CFDs who use the real data from the exchange. Do you understand what a massive free arb opportunity there is if the CFDs deviate from the underlying instrument?




Certainly. If this can be achieved without violating certain clauses in the client agreement and the positions can be held concurrently without fear of autoclosure (or possibly even cancellation) on the OTC side of the transaction.


----------



## fiftyeight

Trembling Hand said:


> Mate you know there are a lot of people who trade CFDs who use the real data from the exchange. Do you understand what a massive free arb opportunity there is if the CFDs deviate from the underlying instrument?




I just opened a small IG account courtesy of sportsbet and was pondering this my self. I have not been at home since opening the IG account but I assumed between the spread and IG having much faster, well everything, there was little chance of finding anything.

I may have to reassess when I am home next with a decent internet connection


----------



## CanOz

Trembling Hand said:


> To Ib EURO servers,
> View attachment 63029




Cool, not bad though if you were trading the FESX.

By the way, are you trading your own account now?


----------



## Modest

Trembling Hand said:


> To Ib EURO servers,
> View attachment 63029



Handy tip...


If you are using ADSL/DSL login to your Modem Router and see if INTERLEAVING is enabled. If it is, it is adding on about 50 - 60ms to your latency. You can generally disable it on the ISP side by calling the ISP.


----------



## Trembling Hand

CanOz said:


> Cool, not bad though if you were trading the FESX.
> 
> By the way, are you trading your own account now?




Yep. I'm now a retail punter jobing the DAX after 3 years of prop HSI - blood pressure is already 20 points lower. 
Using AMP.


----------



## Trembling Hand

Modest said:


> Handy tip...
> 
> 
> If you are using ADDL/DSL login to your Modem Router and see if INTERLEAVING is enabled. If it is, it is adding on about 50 - 60ms to your latency. You can generally disable it on the ISP side by calling the ISP.




I'm on cable. Still possible?


----------



## Modest

Trembling Hand said:


> I'm on cable. Still possible?




I believe interleaving is only for ADSL, don't know if there is a cable equivalent but may be worth researching.


----------



## Trembling Hand

Modest said:


> I believe interleaving is only for ADSL, don't know if there is a cable equivalent but may be worth researching.




Cool will do. thanks.

Just on AMP,
London CQG server




And Sydney


Sydney very fast. faster than I was getting with Propex.. 
:knightrid


----------



## Modest

Trembling Hand said:


> Cool will do. thanks.
> 
> Just on AMP,
> London CQG server
> View attachment 63035
> 
> 
> And Sydney
> View attachment 63034
> 
> Sydney very fast. faster than I was getting with Propex..
> :knightrid





Noice - I'm in Perth add 60ms to everything  

Looking forward to getting Fibre optic (nbn) in the near future, now that will be blazin`!


----------



## VSntchr

Modest said:


> Noice - I'm in Perth add 60ms to everything
> 
> Looking forward to getting Fibre optic (nbn) in the near future, now that will be blazin`!




Not that my trading is affected by improvements in the ms range, but it sure will be nice once Optus comes here tomorrow and fixes the "technical issue" causing my cable to operate at <1Mbps instead of 28+Mbps!


----------



## avion

Trembling Hand said:


> Yep. I'm now a retail punter jobing the DAX after 3 years of prop HSI - blood pressure is already 20 points lower.
> Using AMP.




What's the commission per RT TH?


----------



## Trembling Hand

avion said:


> What's the commission per RT TH?




$2.56 RT using CQG, think it depends on what platform you use.


----------



## fiftyeight

TH switching markets and going back to retail, did you have to jump on sim?


----------



## CanOz

Trembling Hand said:


> Cool will do. thanks.
> 
> Just on AMP,
> London CQG server
> View attachment 63035
> 
> 
> And Sydney
> View attachment 63034
> 
> Sydney very fast. faster than I was getting with Propex..
> :knightrid




With AMP I'm using the Singapore server. When I do packet pings like that I sometimes don't get all the packets back. There is another way to test for those that still have ninjatrader. It's a short strategy that sends an order away from the market and then cancels it. Saw it on another forum. Can try to find the thing, if anyone is interested.

TH, did I catch that correct, you are using CQGs platform as well as the data?


----------



## Trembling Hand

fiftyeight said:


> TH switching markets and going back to retail, did you have to jump on sim?




Yep of course. There is a process to follow that leads to the outcome you want. 

Observe>
Form hypothesis/idea>
Test to confirm theory/idea/hypothesis/edge>
Practise>
Increase practise difficulty>
Trade>
Review>

Ait no way around it  (other than perpetually forward testing random thoughts and actions) 

Though will have to admit the process takes less and less time each time I switch markets.




CanOz said:


> With AMP I'm using the Singapore server. When I do packet pings like that I sometimes don't get all the packets back. There is another way to test for those that still have ninjatrader. It's a short strategy that sends an order away from the market and then cancels it. Saw it on another forum. Can try to find the thing, if anyone is interested.




Yeah that would be good to see.



CanOz said:


> TH, did I catch that correct, you are using CQGs platform as well as the data?




I've been having a look at a few platforms, CGQ, Multicharts and NT.


----------



## ThingyMajiggy

Trembling Hand said:


> Yep of course. There is a process to follow that leads to the outcome you want.
> 
> Observe>
> Form hypothesis/idea>
> Test to confirm theory/idea/hypothesis/edge>
> Practise>
> Increase practise difficulty>
> Trade>
> Review>
> 
> Ait no way around it  (other than perpetually forward testing random thoughts and actions)




You finding similar things/patterns on the Dax as Honkers? You mentioned earlier about it being a lot easier to read?


----------



## CanOz

Trembling Hand said:


> Yeah that would be good to see.




I cannot post the script on ASF, but those who would like the ninja script can PM me and i'll give them a link to it...


----------



## Trembling Hand

ThingyMajiggy said:


> You finding similar things/patterns on the Dax as Honkers? You mentioned earlier about it being a lot easier to read?




Yeah in a way. Its all same but a bit diff....... If ya know what I mean. They are both relatively high point movers so they show some of the same setups. The Dax is a lot thicker in terms of $ and slightly more so in contracts so its a bit smoother I reckon.


----------



## fiftyeight

Trembling Hand said:


> Yep of course. There is a process to follow that leads to the outcome you want.
> 
> Observe>
> Form hypothesis/idea>
> Test to confirm theory/idea/hypothesis/edge>
> Practise>
> Increase practise difficulty>
> Trade>
> Review>
> 
> Ait no way around it  (other than perpetually forward testing random thoughts and actions)




Great post TH

Hmmmm IB and NT with IB data feed, slightly different


----------



## kid hustlr

Good to see you back posting TH.

Interested why you left the prop gig to go it alone? Sick of them taking a cut or you've made so much that you can just do it low stakes on your account these days?

EDIT: spelling


----------



## EarleTrader

I came to this thread trying to figure out which indices you guys trade down there. Instead I found this fascinating 2-year gripping story that's kept me busy for the last few hours. Pav, I sincerely hope you're recovering nicely and hope to see you back here soon!
For the last year I've been developing a platform that creates a real time copy of an index future or CFD trade into the account of the 'follow trader'.  This is not unique and many others are doing it already (El Toro, Ayondo, Zulutrade etc) We have a few new ideas and will hope to bring something new and fresh to market though.
Once we've launched and tested it thoroughly in South Africa, we're planning to come to Oz.  The idea would be to find a handful of consistently profitable Futures traders, both professional and part time (subject to Oz regulation) and then to develop a market of followers around them. So-called 'lead traders' will obviously be highly incentivised to perform consistently to the extent that the frontrunners will be able to substantially complement their trading and brokerage income, doing this.
We will be partnering with a well established local retail brokerage and would love to know your opinion of the local talent.

If anyone's got some thoughts on this I'd love to hear from you.


----------



## tech/a

EarleTrader said:


> I came to this thread trying to figure out which indices you guys trade down there. Instead I found this fascinating 2-year gripping story that's kept me busy for the last few hours. Pav, I sincerely hope you're recovering nicely and hope to see you back here soon!
> For the last year I've been developing a platform that creates a real time copy of an index future or CFD trade into the account of the 'follow trader'.  This is not unique and many others are doing it already (El Toro, Ayondo, Zulutrade etc) We have a few new ideas and will hope to bring something new and fresh to market though.
> Once we've launched and tested it thoroughly in South Africa, we're planning to come to Oz.  The idea would be to find a handful of consistently profitable Futures traders, both professional and part time (subject to Oz regulation) and then to develop a market of followers around them. So-called 'lead traders' will obviously be highly incentivised to perform consistently to the extent that the frontrunners will be able to substantially complement their trading and brokerage income, doing this.
> We will be partnering with a well established local retail brokerage and would love to know your opinion of the local talent.
> 
> If anyone's got some thoughts on this I'd love to hear from you.





Brain suckers.


----------



## Trembling Hand

fiftyeight said:


> Hmmmm IB and NT with IB data feed, slightly different




The IB api doesn't filter out the contract rolls. pretty stupid. you have to reload.



kid hustlr said:


> Interested why you left the prop gig to go it alone? Sick of them taking a cut or you've made so much that you can just do it low stakes on your account these days?




No biggy. I had been with them nearly three years. Moving on to the next thing and after not having the best back end of the year last year the change has been very nice.


----------



## EarleTrader

tech/a said:


> Brain suckers.




Hi Tech,

Not sure if you're referring to the local retail brokerages or to the likes of myself ...


----------



## Modest

AMP Futures looks good... What's the catch? I thought I had to scrape together 10K USD to open a trading account to trade the ES - with them I can trade the ES with a very low minimum...


----------



## fiftyeight

Trembling Hand said:


> The IB api doesn't filter out the contract rolls. pretty stupid. you have to reload.





That fixed it. Cheers


----------



## kid hustlr

Trembling Hand said:


> No biggy. I had been with them nearly three years. Moving on to the next thing and after not having the best back end of the year last year *the change has been very nice*.




Well your e-personality seems to have improved!


----------



## Trembling Hand

kid hustlr said:


> Well your e-personality seems to have improved!




Don't fret, I'm still an A-hole in real life.


----------



## >Apocalypto<

Trembling Hand said:


> Don't fret, I'm still an A-hole in real life.




TH i very little about how you do what you do... 

Do you have a set time frame or tick value for your charts? do you switch depending on the current day? I notice you post a lot of chart but wasn't 100% sure if you only use them or combine with DOM/time sale?


----------



## skyQuake

Trembling Hand said:


> Don't fret, I'm still an A-hole in real life.




Side question, do you think this comes from years and years of a job where you are the *client*?
(and everyone else had better not f*** up: Broker/Data provider/Clearing/ISP or they'll get a mouthful)


----------



## tech/a

Trembling Hand said:


> Don't fret, I'm still an A-hole in real life.






skyQuake said:


> Side question, do you think this comes from years and years of a job where you are the *client*?
> (and everyone else had better not f*** up: Broker/Data provider/Clearing/ISP or they'll get a mouthful)




Let me guess

He's Black or white ---No grey.
He doesn't suffer fools at all---let alone easily.
Doesn't like chit chat
Has a high quality Bull $hitometer.
Doesn't care what people as a whole think.
He's over 40

According to my Gastroenterologist----I'm a perfect ar$e hole.


----------



## Trembling Hand

>Apocalypto< said:


> TH i very little about how you do what you do...
> 
> Do you have a set time frame or tick value for your charts? do you switch depending on the current day? I notice you post a lot of chart but wasn't 100% sure if you only use them or combine with DOM/time sale?




I have 2 x 30" and 2 x 24" screens so I have lots of charts and DOMs all over the place. But in practise I'm using the 1 min chart to trade off, 5 & 15 min for support/resistance areas. I don't switch chart periods during the day. If I think I need to be looking at it I'll already have it somewhere on my screens.


----------



## EarleTrader

If i may ask this group's opinion: would a successful futures and CFD trader in Aus be interested in allowing follow traders to copy his trades based on a performance fee?


----------



## kid hustlr

EarleTrader said:


> If i may ask this group's opinion: would a successful futures and CFD trader in Aus be interested in allowing follow traders to copy his trades based on a performance fee?




Yes if the price is right

*I am not a successful futures trader


----------



## >Apocalypto<

Trembling Hand said:


> I have 2 x 30" and 2 x 24" screens so I have lots of charts and DOMs all over the place. But in practise I'm using the 1 min chart to trade off, 5 & 15 min for support/resistance areas. I don't switch chart periods during the day. If I think I need to be looking at it I'll already have it somewhere on my screens.




Thanks TH, 

BTW love your sig...


----------



## Trembling Hand

EarleTrader said:


> If i may ask this group's opinion: would a successful futures and CFD trader in Aus be interested in allowing follow traders to copy his trades based on a performance fee?




There is going to be some big problems getting around ASIC on that one and no ASFL. BIG!!


----------



## >Apocalypto<

well got a rough way to test execution time. take very small trades to see how fast they open and close. 

times where a lot better tonight. got back on the horse. not trading as large as I have as still scared one of those will get delayed and i will cop it like i did Monday this week (caught on delay 3 trades 10eur pt busted me a up a bit.) I really want to be trading 5-10EUR a point.

A lot of nice movement on the DAX tonight still a little hesitant to hold hence missed a few pts but pulled in over 10 so happy with that. think now each day i will take micros to test the fill and close times. not sure if it a long term solution. all I've got atm is demo and its pissing me off... each day making 600-1k+ and not being able to try live 1 lots are execution tests. 

not big money or anything to really excite but it's a start and it's live... hoping Monday was a once off.. for a while anyway.


----------



## >Apocalypto<

Ninja Jun demo figures... if only it was real  (same method using live on 1min)


----------



## Trembling Hand

>Apocalypto< said:


> all I've got atm is demo and its pissing me off... each day making 600-1k+ and not being able to try live 1 lots are execution tests.
> 
> not big money or anything to really excite but it's a start and it's live... hoping Monday was a once off.. for a while anyway.




Why not use an Aussie CFD?


----------



## >Apocalypto<

Trembling Hand said:


> Why not use an Aussie CFD?




do mean currency point or view or trading TH? 

If trading, I watched the DAX for about 3-4 months, found this on the DAX and find it works best with it. I really like trading the DAX. 

only went with FXCM as they offered Ninja, then found out you still had to buy Ninja and pay the coms if you want to use it to trade.


----------



## Trembling Hand

>Apocalypto< said:


> do mean currency point or view or trading TH?
> 
> If trading, I watched the DAX for about 3-4 months, found this on the DAX and find it works best with it. I really like trading the DAX.
> 
> only went with FXCM as they offered Ninja, then found out you still had to buy Ninja and pay the coms if you want to use it to trade.




You are complaining about slow trade time. I assume thats because your provider is off shore?


----------



## >Apocalypto<

Trembling Hand said:


> You are complaining about slow trade time. I assume thats because your provider is off shore?




umm good point. FXCM is who i am using atm... you would think it would all be done in the US. 

Looked at IG platform horrible City and CMC are others. I'll give it a little more time then look at another option.


----------



## >Apocalypto<

TH,

Question for you, what's you're opinion on this. 

Can achieve profitable trading on Ninja Trader but same method really doesn't work as well on MT4 same time frame rules the lot... just different platform?  

due to data display on Ninja makes it work but is a failure on other platforms due to different data display? is this still a valid method? 

this has been bugging me as it exactly what i face atm.


----------



## cynic

For the benefit of those pondering the underlying cause of variances between the performance of different trading platforms, the following link might possibly offer some insight:

http://www.tools4brokers.com/products/Virtual_Dealer


----------



## Trembling Hand

Let me state my opinion on trading anything but the real futs market. 

I have been looking at CFDs since their inception back in early 2000. Have traded them and probably taken close to 300 to 500g maybe a bit more out of practically no capital in that time. I know how they work. Even their dirty tricks. There is no great conspiracy like some think. They give you a tick or two more slippage than whats fair but to tell you the truth its actual better than the slippage you get hitting at market into the futures exchange on the other side of the world. Get over it - the real market is far worse. If you think that one day you will graduate to the futs and all of a sudden it will be easier give up. Its harder.

Now with that said if you haven't the capital to trade the real market you have to go to CFDs, fair enough. I understand that.

If you use their data and not the real exchange data you are without doubt setting yourself up for failure. There is a massive amount of information in the trade volume, orders hitting at bid or ask and in the way the order book is populated that you will never understand let alone be able to learn how to use. If you use the synthetic data you are accepting a fate similar to those who sit at a pokie machine feeding their wage into a hole.

Trading is a simple task. It's just buy, sell, close or do nothing, yet its an extremely hard endeavour. If you cannot understand *how* the prices are produced on your screen how are you going to understand what to do with them? When it starts to go pear shaped you start thinking the world is against you. That is the way trading feels a good 60% of the time. As the inevitable draw downs occur if you do not trust your data how are you going to stick at it? The only out come is frustration at your tools or even worse the development of tinhat theories. Its all down hill fast from there.


*You want to trade indexs get the F#&king data first.*


----------



## cynic

Trembling Hand said:


> Let me state my opinion on trading anything but the real futs market.
> 
> I have been looking at CFDs since their inception back in early 2000. Have traded them and probably taken close to 300 to 500g maybe a bit more out of practically no capital in that time. I know how they work. Even their dirty tricks. There is no great conspiracy like some think. They give you a tick or two more slippage than whats fair but to tell you the truth its actual better than the slippage you get hitting at market into the futures exchange on the other side of the world. Get over it - the real market is far worse. If you think that one day you will graduate to the futs and all of a sudden it will be easier give up. Its harder.
> 
> Now with that said if you haven't the capital to trade the real market you have to go to CFDs, fair enough. I understand that.
> 
> If you use their data and not the real exchange data you are without doubt setting yourself up for failure. There is a massive amount of information in the trade volume, orders hitting at bid or ask and in the way the order book is populated that you will never understand let alone be able to learn how to use. If you use the synthetic data you are accepting a fate similar to those who sit at a pokie machine feeding their wage into a hole.
> 
> Trading is a simple task. It's just buy, sell, close or do nothing, yet its an extremely hard endeavour. If you cannot understand *how* the prices are produced on your screen how are you going to understand what to do with them? When it starts to go pear shaped you start thinking the world is against you. That is the way trading feels a good 60% of the time. As the inevitable draw downs occur if you do not trust your data how are you going to stick at it? The only out come is frustration at your tools or even worse the development of tinhat theories. Its all down hill fast from there.
> 
> 
> *You want to trade indexs get the F#&king data first.*



Whilst I do understand what it is that you're saying, and am inclined to agree with much of it, the simple fact is that I am only able to trade the prices that my chosen OTC provider offers me. 

As the methods I use are largely price action based, reformulation of the trading plan based upon data from what is effectively another market, is quite simply, a recipe for, all but certain, failure!


----------



## Trembling Hand

cynic said:


> Whilst I do understand what it is that you're saying, and am inclined to agree with much of it, the simple fact is that I am only able to trade the prices that my chosen OTC provider offers me.
> 
> As the methods I use are largely price action based, reformulation of the trading plan based upon data from what is effectively another market, is quite simply, a recipe for, all but certain, failure!




MATE!!! You have no idea what you are trading. You simply do not understand the most basic fundamentals of what is on your screen and where it comes from. I don't know how much more I can say it. CFDs track the underlying futs tick for tick. That is why they call it a synthetic market. 

What do you think it is that your MM is doing when they offer you an instrument and the prices change? What are you trading?


----------



## cynic

Further to my last post I just thought I'd add the following excerpt from one of several responses I received to one of my queries regarding the pricing of an OTC product: 



> .... A CFD does broadly replicate the price movement of the underlying asset, however this does not necessarily mean that they will be offered at identical prices at all times. Just as the clarifying statement in the quote you provided explains, this just means that when the underlying price of the GER30 changes, so too will the price of the CFD. If you look at the DAX charts you have found online, and compare it to a line chart created through Marketscope on the Trading Station Platform, you will see that each line generally follows the same movement and trend, however do not always display identical prices. This is because the price set on Marketscope is determined by the supply and demand of your fellow [_Name of Company Omitted_] traders in regards to this product.


----------



## cynic

Trembling Hand said:


> MATE!!! You have no idea what you are trading. You simply do not understand the most basic fundamentals of what is on your screen and where it comes from. I don't know how much more I can say it. CFDs track the underlying futs tick for tick. That is why they call it a synthetic market.
> 
> What do you think it is that your MM is doing when they offer you an instrument and the prices change? What are you trading?




Our posts appear to have crossed. Whilst I have great admiration for your capability and experience, I've had discourse with a number of CFD providers whom have readily attested to the contrary.


----------



## banco

Trembling Hand said:


> I have 2 x 30" and 2 x 24" screens so I have lots of charts and DOMs all over the place. But in practise I'm using the 1 min chart to trade off, 5 & 15 min for support/resistance areas. I don't switch chart periods during the day. If I think I need to be looking at it I'll already have it somewhere on my screens.




Do you only trade one instrument at any one time?


----------



## Trembling Hand

cynic said:


> Our posts appear to have crossed. Whilst I have great admiration for your capability and experience, I've had discourse with a number of CFD providers whom have readily attested to the contrary.




Ok mate. So tell me you trust the providers to tell you the truth in regards to how they set their prices yet you don't trust the actual prices they give you? 

Then further to that I can tell you with 100% certainty without ever asking the guys who I'm competing against that  I know where the prices come from. I've beaten them. 


Now all that aside. Here is a guy who is claiming to have "cracked the code" telling you to spend just $100 and have a look at it for yourself. But you are preferring to take the word of the people who you are trading against and don't trust. Seriously?


----------



## cynic

Trembling Hand said:


> Ok mate. So tell me you trust the providers to tell you the truth in regards to how they set their prices yet you don't trust the actual prices they give you?




On the contrary, after receiving several contradictory responses, I do not even trust the people I've conversed with to know how their product actually operates.


> Then further to that I can tell you with 100% certainty without ever asking the guys who I'm competing against that  I know where the prices come from. I've beaten them.




Well done and good for you! 


> Now all that aside. Here is a guy who is claiming to have "cracked the code" telling you to spend just $100 and have a look at it for yourself. But you are preferring to take the word of the people who you are trading against and don't trust. Seriously?




Okay! 

I'll have a quick squiz at that link later, but I've got to tell you that what I've been seeing firsthand on my screen for some years now,  is far more compelling and difficult to dismiss than the second or third hand testimony of any expert.


----------



## Evolve

TH where do you recommend getting fut data from?
Unable to open an account with IB as i don't meet the requirements so am with CMC markets.


----------



## Trembling Hand

LOL. Ya try to help but ya cannot.


----------



## cynic

Trembling Hand said:


> LOL. Ya try to help but ya cannot.




I quite understand your frustration, having experienced similar when trying to alert hopeful newbies to certain aspects of the OTC industry.

BTW, I just tried to click on that underlined part of your recent post, but it doesn't appear to be a link. Are you able to give me a search term or possibly a http address?


----------



## Trembling Hand

Evolve said:


> TH where do you recommend getting fut data from?
> Unable to open an account with IB as i don't meet the requirements so am with CMC markets.




Probably the cheapest way is to open an account with http://www.ampclearing.com/

minimum account is $500 bucks and data is what ever the exchange cost are. 






banco said:


> Do you only trade one instrument at any one time?




Only one. But there is a lot to look at. To get a picture of what is going on there is normally 3-5 other instruments that influence any market. EUR, US indexes, BUNDs etc


----------



## fiftyeight

Cynic can you tell us how you trade? Seems pretty complex over multiple brokers. I have been trying to figure it out for ages. I even had a look at a computational mathematics book you were reading haha


----------



## fiftyeight

>Apocalypto< said:


> BTW love your sig...




Seems I am not the only one who loves this quote


----------



## skc

Trembling Hand said:


> LOL. Ya try to help but ya cannot.




Lol. Welcome back.

I guess I won't be seeing you at the Xmas party afterall!



Trembling Hand said:


> Probably the cheapest way is to open an account with http://www.ampclearing.com/
> 
> minimum account is $500 bucks and data is what ever the exchange cost are.




Just to be clear. This AMPClearing doesn't appear to be related to AMP here in Australia.


----------



## cynic

fiftyeight said:


> Cynic can you tell us how you trade? Seems pretty complex over multiple brokers. I have been trying to figure it out for ages. I even had a look at a computational mathematics book you were reading haha




I presume the book you're talking about is the one by Graham, Knuth and Patashnik. This happens to be my favourite mathematics text. 

Unfortunately, it just so happens that mathematics is only one of my main hobbies and is largely unrelated to my trading methodology.

Having said that, my methods are numbers oriented and largely unaligned with conventional analytical styles.

My use of one particular strategy across multiple brokers was a failed trial this year which turned into a logistical nightmare when a trillion euros of QE was dropped into the mix. This failure alone accounts for approximately half my financial year to date losses. 

The strategies involving multiple accounts relate to my main broker/provider and, although my performance this financial year has been exceptionally dismal, I still believe that they hold merit and am thus reluctant to reveal anything too specific about these methods (particularly given that they accounted for approximately 70% of my gross income in the previous financial year!).


----------



## >Apocalypto<

Trembling Hand said:


> LOL. Ya try to help but ya cannot.




AMP look good TH have you traded live with them?


----------



## Trembling Hand

>Apocalypto< said:


> AMP look good TH have you traded live with them?




Yep.  from me.


----------



## >Apocalypto<

Trembling Hand said:


> Yep.  from me.




*your a gem TH* i can afford to trade a lot of futs with them based on their DT margins... going to open a demo on NT and a few other platforms. also see the MDAX 5EUR a point but i worry about liquidity... will have a look on demo.

many thanks man that find is on par with the saints steal win last sunday!


----------



## Modest

>Apocalypto< said:


> *your a gem TH* i can afford to trade a lot of futs with them based on their DT margins... going to open a demo on NT and a few other platforms. also see the MDAX 5EUR a point but i worry about liquidity... will have a look on demo.
> 
> many thanks man that find is on par with the saints steal win last sunday!




QTrader Looks good....

They offer 60 platforms I wouldn't know where to start. TH any comments on which platform to use?


----------



## >Apocalypto<

coms look better then IB as well.


----------



## CanOz

Another option for brokers would be Stage 5. I believe they clear through AMP anyway, but they told me they could beat on commissions....

Same platform choices too I think. 

BTW, we're in beta testing with ninjatrader 8, there are some videos around on YT on it. It's DOM is much improved and it's less resource intensive now...

I've been with AMP for 4 years now and have had no issues for 3. Also have a backup account with IB, prefer amp's CQG data.


----------



## fiftyeight

cynic said:


> I presume the book you're talking about is the one by Graham, Knuth and Patashnik. This happens to be my favourite mathematics text.




Yup thats the one. I would like to tackle it at some stage but that wont be anytime soon

Thanks for the insight Cynic


----------



## Lone Wolf

>Apocalypto< said:


> *your a gem TH* i can afford to trade a lot of futs with them based on their DT margins... going to open a demo on NT and a few other platforms. also see the MDAX 5EUR a point but i worry about liquidity... will have a look on demo.




Just be aware that not all markets are available on the demo account. When I first started demo I thought I had a setup problem, but it was just me trying to get the FTSE running when it wasn't available on demo.

Things have probably changed, but in March last year they sent me the following list of markets available on demo.

EMINI S&P 500 - EMINI SP 500
 EMINI MDCP - EMINI MIDCAP
 EMINI NSDQ - EMINI NASAQ

 ICEUS SM RUS2K - MINI RUSSELL 2000
 ICEUS USD INDX - DOLLAR INDEX

 EUREX EUR-BOBL
 EUREX DAX INDEX
 EUREX E-STXX 50

 CBOT CORN
 CBOT SOYBEANS
 CBOT WHEAT
 CBOT BEAN OIL
 CBOT MINI DOW

 CBOT T-BONDS
 CBOT 10Y T-NOTE

 CMX GOLD
 CMX SILVER

 NYL MINI GOLD - MINI GOLD
 NYL MINI SLVR - MINI SILVER

 NY LT CRUDE
 NY NATURAL GAS

 NYM EMINI CRUDE

 IMM AUS $ - AUSTRALIAN DOLLAR
 IMM B-POUND - BRITISH POUND
 IMM CDN DOLLAR - CANADIAN DOLLAR
 IMM EURO FX - EURO
 IMM SWISS FRC - SWISS FRANC
 IMM J-YEN - JAPANESE YEN

 IMM EMINI EUR - EMINI EURO
 IMM EMINI B-POUND - EMINI EURO
 IMM EMINI J-YEN - EMINI EURO

 o       M6A:  E-Micro AUD/USD
 o       M6B:  E-Micro GBP/USD
 o       M6C:  E-Micro USD/CAD
 o       M6E:  E-Micro EUR/USD
 o       M6J:  E-Micro USD/JPY
 o       M6S:  E-Micro USD/CHF


----------



## >Apocalypto<

CanOz said:


> Another option for brokers would be Stage 5. I believe they clear through AMP anyway, but they told me they could beat on commissions....
> 
> Same platform choices too I think.
> 
> BTW, we're in beta testing with ninjatrader 8, there are some videos around on YT on it. It's DOM is much improved and it's less resource intensive now...
> 
> I've been with AMP for 4 years now and have had no issues for 3. Also have a backup account with IB, prefer amp's CQG data.




Thanks Can I was just about to ask that as they offer three choices. Ive got Ninja going with CQG going to get another platform going soon


----------



## ThingyMajiggy

If you want a direct connection to the exchanges, use CQG or TT's platform. 

It wouldn't be hard for NT8 to be less resource hungry than 7, unbelievably bad at chewing up the resources, double click the icon and go make yourself a coffee and it might be loaded by the time you get back.


----------



## >Apocalypto<

TH was spot on about the data, fraak it's different. FXCM to FDAX 9/15 really different... Fut moves differently as well.


----------



## Modest

ThingyMajiggy said:


> If you want a direct connection to the exchanges, use CQG or TT's platform.
> 
> It wouldn't be hard for NT8 to be less resource hungry than 7, unbelievably bad at chewing up the resources, double click the icon and go make yourself a coffee and it might be loaded by the time you get back.




TT is acronym for?


----------



## >Apocalypto<

Modest said:


> TT is acronym for?




the data provider on AMP is TT not sure what i stands for only listed as TT


----------



## avion

Modest said:


> TT is acronym for?




Trading Technologies, i think they are the crowd who had a patent on one click executions via DOM..., hence was suing everybody....


----------



## Modest

Thanks mate


----------



## ThingyMajiggy

Modest said:


> Thanks mate




Yeah Trading Technologies, makers of X_TRADER. Patented the static DOM and used by many a prop firm, although not so much these days, some are using CQG + others


----------



## >Apocalypto<

what's the normal spread you guys see on the DAX? 

I'm looking at the FDAX 9-15 

mainly seeing .5-3 spreads normal? 

Cheers


----------



## History Repeats

Speaking of brokers have a look at Deep discount trading but only basic platform are free and pay for data fee.


----------



## fiftyeight

Why cant I just do this every night haha


----------



## Trembling Hand

>Apocalypto< said:


> what's the normal spread you guys see on the DAX?
> 
> I'm looking at the FDAX 9-15
> 
> mainly seeing .5-3 spreads normal?
> 
> Cheers





its the last night of the 6-15 contract (June)


----------



## >Apocalypto<

Trembling Hand said:


> its the last night of the 6-15 contract (June)




thanks TH it felt thin! remember on CL i would move forward with a week out... I'm rusty again. 

well first day on CQG DAX happy with it saw it quite well and as TH point out i was one of the few playing on the last drinks call. on to the next contract! 

first trade a test trade on AUD future or JPY i can't remember now.


----------



## CanOz

What a horrible day...I was so looking forward to today's China PMI, Then China Unicom crashed my IB connection...so by the time that got going it was no longer useful to job away at a range...

So then i waited for the European open, my CQG connection crashed just as the cash equity market opened!!!

The only bright spot was managing to get several hours of X_Trader training in before the day ran out of hours....

Unprofitable and unproductive...:frown:


----------



## Trembling Hand

CanOz said:


> What a horrible day...I was so looking forward to today's China PMI, Then China Unicom crashed my IB connection...so by the time that got going it was no longer useful to job away at a range...
> 
> So then i waited for the European open, my CQG connection crashed just as the cash equity market opened!!!
> 
> The only bright spot was managing to get several hours of X_Trader training in before the day ran out of hours....
> 
> Unprofitable and unproductive...:frown:




Strange old day on the Eurex anyway Can. Very low range grind up. I think my avg winner is sitting around 3 ticks


----------



## CanOz

Trembling Hand said:


> Strange old day on the Eurex anyway Can. Very low range grind up. I think my avg winner is sitting around 3 ticks




Its almost as if they're running out of shorts to fuel the move....


----------



## kid hustlr

Weird IB email this morning:

Dear Client,

For the past several years, Interactive Brokers has been offering foreign currency trading to Australian clients under a "no-action" letter issued by the Australian Securities & Investment Commission ("ASIC").  The "no-action" letter allowed Interactive Brokers to offer forex trading to our Australian clients just as we offer it to other clients around the world. 

Unfortunately, ASIC has informed us that it has decided to withdraw the "no-action" letter covering Interactive Brokers' forex offering in Australia.

We have therefore decided not to allow our Australian clients to initiate new forex positions (i.e., a currency position that is leveraged or financed). We intend to seek clarification from ASIC regarding our Australian clients' existing forex positions and also whether Australian clients may continue to convert one currency to another on a non-leveraged basis.

We hope to have clarification on these matters soon and we will communicate further when we have more information.



Interactive Brokers Client Services 

------

I'm confused by this - when you trade the FTSe you effectively are trading in another currency - does the above statement impact that?


----------



## kid hustlr

FWIW it feels like ASIC have got it wrong here - seems like they are really squeezing IB (no margin for stocks, now this) - I don't understand why they would target IB which seems like a pretty clean, well operated business which I feel 'smarter' individuals use and not target CFD bucket shops


----------



## elbee

kid hustlr said:


> FWIW it feels like ASIC have got it wrong here - seems like they are really squeezing IB (no margin for stocks, now this) - I don't understand why they would target IB which seems like a pretty clean, well operated business which I feel 'smarter' individuals use and not target CFD bucket shops




Because local financial institutions, including the big 4 banks, have rather more sway with the government than does IB, and of course those institutions would rather you trade with them.


----------



## keithj

kid hustlr said:


> FWIW it feels like ASIC have got it wrong here - seems like they are really squeezing IB (no margin for stocks, now this)



It may be a response to the BBY collapse.

And disallowing FX trading appears to be for all clients, and not just individuals - IB still allows cpys & trusts to trade stocks/futs on margin.


----------



## skc

kid hustlr said:


> FWIW it feels like ASIC have got it wrong here - seems like they are really squeezing IB (no margin for stocks, now this) - I don't understand why they would target IB which seems like a pretty clean, well operated business which I feel 'smarter' individuals use and not target CFD bucket shops




Yes.... there are plenty of worse things in the market for ASIC to go after you'd think.

It wouldn't surprise me at all if IB decides that it's had enough of it. Australia is a small enough market as it is so pouring resources to satisfy the ever changing ASIC mood is unlikely to be great business.


----------



## kid hustlr

skc said:


> Yes.... there are plenty of worse things in the market for ASIC to go after you'd think.
> 
> It wouldn't surprise me at all if IB decides that it's had enough of it. Australia is a small enough market as it is so pouring resources to satisfy the ever changing ASIC mood is unlikely to be great business.




My view entirely - which is a real shame because I think its an excellent discount provider for those who know what they are doing.

If IB was to pull out of the aussie market - whats the next best share trading alternative? Are there other options or does one just suck it up and head to the big 4?


----------



## Modest

kid hustlr said:


> My view entirely - which is a real shame because I think its an excellent discount provider for those who know what they are doing.
> 
> If IB was to pull out of the aussie market - whats the next best share trading alternative? Are there other options or does one just suck it up and head to the big 4?




I believe a few blokes here us AMP 

http://www.ampfutures.com/


----------



## Lone Wolf

kid hustlr said:


> If IB was to pull out of the aussie market - whats the next best share trading alternative? Are there other options or does one just suck it up and head to the big 4?






Modest said:


> I believe a few blokes here us AMP
> 
> http://www.ampfutures.com/




Kid H was talking about share trading.

I'm not sure about overseas alternatives. Within Australia CMC markets (stockbroking, not the CFD account) is much better compared to the likes of Commsec.

For 10 or less trades per month it's $11 or 0.10% per trade. 11 or more trades per month and it's $9.90 or 0.08%. Free conditional orders.

ASIC don't seem to do a very good job of protecting people from being taken advantage of, but they're doing a pretty good job of forcing us to be at the mercy of overpriced Aussie brokers looking to take advantage of us.


----------



## skc

kid hustlr said:


> My view entirely - which is a real shame because I think its an excellent discount provider for those who know what they are doing.
> 
> If IB was to pull out of the aussie market - whats the next best share trading alternative? Are there other options or does one just suck it up and head to the big 4?




If you are investing buy and hold, Big 4 will do. I have a Westpac one specifically for it's slowness so I don't over-react to short term stuff.

If you want more active trading, DMA CFD might be an alternative. It cuts out all the rubbish CHESS paper works etc but you have added counterparty risks. Otherwise, I think someone do offer WebIress on real shares, but I can't remember who.


----------



## kid hustlr

tx guys

hopefully Ib continues to offer its service but just thinking out loud for the longer picture.


----------



## Sakk

Worth a read, compares CFD's with Futures.  No affiliation, however I have come to the same conclusion after having both futures feed and CFD feed running side by side.  

http://www.andlil.co.uk/comparing-cfds-futures-scalping-day-trading/

However it reads like a bit more of a sell for IG.


----------



## Trembling Hand

Sakk said:


> However it reads like a bit more of a sell for IG.




Yeah with nice affiliate links to IG at the bottom of the post.....


----------



## Sakk

Sakk said:


> No affiliation, however I have come to the same conclusion after having both futures feed and CFD feed running side by side.
> 
> 
> However it reads like a bit more of a sell for IG.




Sorry, what I meant to say was "I have no affiliation".  However the article clearly does.


----------



## Sakk

>Apocalypto< said:


> what's the normal spread you guys see on the DAX?
> 
> I'm looking at the FDAX 9-15
> 
> mainly seeing .5-3 spreads normal?
> 
> Cheers




Yep that's about right, when i was monitoring spreads, futures would normally be at 1.5 - 2 points and move out to 3 points.  Rarely saw 0.5 point spread but I tested several months back.  I compared the spreads and have traded the cash markets of IG's and FXCM's Germany 30 and traded futures.

FXCM 80% of the time was 1 point and then 2 point.  IG Markets fixed at 1 point. 

FXCM every order filled but would get 1 - 2 point slippage on stops, so too with Futures.  IG no slippage BUT very occasionally some orders don't get filled in very fast moves (IG's explanation is if price has moved greater than 3 points from the time you place the order, it gets cancelled)


----------



## fiftyeight

Sakk said:


> BUT very occasionally some orders don't get filled in very fast moves (IG's explanation is if price has moved greater than 3 points from the time you place the order, it gets cancelled)





Occasionally??? I had it happen 3 times in about 15 mins last week


----------



## tech/a

Boom!!!
DAX


----------



## avion

tech/a said:


> Boom!!!
> DAX




C'mon Tech, we know you were on it..., few grand perhaps?


----------



## tech/a

avion said:


> C'mon Tech, we know you were on it..., few grand perhaps?




Not all but enough


----------



## CanOz

> 16:55 (GR) Greece PM Tsipras said to be prepared to accept almost all bailout conditions - financial press - Tsipras will accept all his bailout creditors' conditions that were on the table this weekend with only a handful of minor changes- According to the article, Tsipras wants the changes to raise the retirement age to 67 by 2022 to start in Oct, rather than immediately (Note: On June 24th, it was reported that creditors wanted the retirement age raised to 67 by 2022 vs 2025 previously proposed by the Greek govt)- Tsipras is said to also request that the special solidarity grant be phased out by Dec 2019 vs previously proposed 2020 (Note: On June 24th, it was reported that the creditors called for the phasing out of the grants by the end of 2017)- Suggests Tsipras will accept most of the reforms related to the VAT; However, he is seeking a special 30% discount for the Greek islands.- Follow Up: Greece PM Tsipras letter said to contain elements that European ministers would find hard to accept- Creditors still see Greek referendum as an issue - Source TradeTheNews.com




Obviously would not have wanted to be short...


----------



## tech/a

CanOz said:


> Obviously would not have wanted to be short...




Its not over.

Got this bit





11058---11130


----------



## fiftyeight

Not on tonight

Tech, that might be the first chart I have seen you post with no volume


----------



## tech/a

fiftyeight said:


> Not on tonight
> 
> Tech, that might be the first chart I have seen you post with no volume




Its below it I didn't include it.

Here it is cause its interesting.


----------



## CanOz

Yeah, that was quite interesting, i was watching the order flow as the market traded back towards the open and saw the orders start to lift the offers well before the announcement...When the announcement hit, the market was already cleaning out shorts....

Nothing is a secret these days...i wonder how much the Greek PM made off that one?


----------



## Trembling Hand

CanOz said:


> Nothing is a secret these days...i wonder how much the Greek PM made off that one?




LOL. More than the poor suckers that voted him in.


----------



## tech/a

Lot more to come
This could get really nasty
Imagine a government that
Is putting 80% of your nett
Wealth at risk. You'd want to 
Be a Greek "Preper"

Idiots over reacting!?


----------



## CanOz

Quick reminder for those holding into the US session....NFP data is released tonight!


----------



## kid hustlr

3 big up days on the SPI. and Monday's fall cancelled out.

Is the low in or is this just the start?


----------



## CanOz

kid hustlr said:


> 3 big up days on the SPI. and Monday's fall cancelled out.
> 
> Is the low in or is this just the start?




Well China put in another interesting day


----------



## Modest

Trading Spot FX on the 1min chart and trading the ES on the 1m chart is 10x easier. Spot FX is choppy and absolutely crazy (still tradable ) while the ES 1min is amazingly smooth and orderly in comparison...

I am loving it so far.


----------



## tech/a

DAX teetering


----------



## tech/a

tech/a said:


> DAX teetering




Made up it's mind pretty quickly


----------



## Modest

I am still astounded at how beautiful and clean the price action is on the futures vs spot fx


----------



## Modest

A couple of trades today. Loving the DOM. Futures rock! 

AMP Has been excellent - their support is phenomenal; I had some issues with the platform and they were super helpful and speedy sorting it out.

I tested out XTrader and QTrader. For me, Qtrader hands down is the best!


----------



## CanOz

Modest said:


> A couple of trades today. Loving the DOM. Futures rock!
> 
> AMP Has been excellent - their support is phenomenal; I had some issues with the platform and they were super helpful and speedy sorting it out.
> 
> I tested out XTrader and QTrader. For me, Qtrader hands down is the best!




The charts on X_Trader are a little cumbersom. I really like the DOM though. I've not tried Q_Trader. CQG is my next trial...


----------



## Modest

CanOz said:


> The charts on X_Trader are a little cumbersom. I really like the DOM though. I've not tried Q_Trader. CQG is my next trial...




Yes and not very order friendly they don't have bracket orders (specify TP and SL) unless you use their logic programming ADL platform to create them whilst QTrader is very user friendly


----------



## CanOz

Modest said:


> Yes and not very order friendly they don't have bracket orders (specify TP and SL) unless you use their logic programming ADL platform to create them whilst QTrader is very user friendly




I always just used the DOM to place my bracket orders, although it was mostly a protective stop away from the noise. At the moment I'm quite happy to use the Jigsaw DOM to execute trades. Its extremely user friendly. Once i move to Australia and swap brokers I'll have more motivation to switch platforms too.

Good to hear your enjoying the currency futures, they're much better to trade than the spot for me, as i can use volume tools more effectively.

CanOz


----------



## ThingyMajiggy

CanOz said:


> Good to hear your enjoying the currency futures, they're much better to trade than the spot for me, as i can use volume tools more effectively.
> 
> CanOz




Always wondered about this, I take it spot is king and currency futs follow spot? So there wouldn't be much to read into the volume would there? I guess there's arb algo's pushing it around to match spot?


----------



## CanOz

ThingyMajiggy said:


> Always wondered about this, I take it spot is king and currency futs follow spot? So there wouldn't be much to read into the volume would there? I guess there's arb algo's pushing it around to match spot?




Yeah they're arbed up pretty even now. I rarely see any differences so the bots must be hard at work.


----------



## Modest

CanOz said:


> Good to hear your enjoying the currency futures, they're much better to trade than the spot for me, as i can use volume tools more effectively.
> 
> CanOz




Thanks mate still trying to figure out how I can use Volume in my discretionary strategy as I've had no experience with Volume trading Spot FX so something new to learn. Currently keeping an eye on volume divergences but open to any links or advice on how to fully utilise volume


----------



## CanOz

Modest said:


> Thanks mate still trying to figure out how I can use Volume in my discretionary strategy as I've had no experience with Volume trading Spot FX so something new to learn. Currently keeping an eye on volume divergences but open to any links or advice on how to fully utilise volume




I like volume profiles for finding opportunities in any market. Its simple and easy to understand and you can see the market react at key levels.


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## Modest

Thanks I'll check it out!


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## CanOz

Modest said:


> Thanks I'll check it out!




An example how to use volume profiles in FX Futures. Use the Composite profile and the current Range profile to determine areas where price could get rejected and return to 'value'. Value being the area where the most volume has occurred recently. If the market is at your pre-determined levels, then you go to a shorter time frame chart, DOM, volume impressions, to determine any buy/sell deltas. If the buyers can overwhelm the sellers at a buy level, then you take your position. 

Happy to discuss.

CanOz


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## sinner

CanOz said:


> Happy to discuss.
> 
> CanOz




Re FX specifically, do you ever find that the levels should look like they work but end up failing because the volume didn't show up in CME FX futs but in a different market (e.g. interbank OTC)?

Although, I guess this q would apply equally for all futures where the underlying is another financial asset, but less so for stuff like wheat or similar.


----------



## CanOz

sinner said:


> Re FX specifically, do you ever find that the levels should look like they work but end up failing because the volume didn't show up in CME FX futs but in a different market (e.g. interbank OTC)?
> 
> Although, I guess this q would apply equally for all futures where the underlying is another financial asset, but less so for stuff like wheat or similar.




Well, the level either attracts participants or it doesn't. Auction market theory should work in interbank as well, but the data is unavailable. 

I haven't actively traded FX futures using volume profile though. Lets see this week, i can post some activity and see how well the market responds to these levels.


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## CanOz

Just on the Yen, when I look to trade any market i like to look at the longer time frame for some technical context. The channel that the 6J is trading in now is that second sort of 'grind' down thats typical after a quick impulsive move. Its grinds as shorts take profits and new shorts initiate. I'm sure those that use only a DOM know what this looks like. It can prvide some dramtic short covering rallies intra-day.

So, just be clear, we will be looking for trend and counter trend opportunities. All of my trades will be taken as the market attempts to trade back to 'value'.

CanOz


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## Modest

Thanks I have been researching volume analysis in the Futures market but haven't used volume alone to enter the market if that makes sense...I am watching volume more now days.

Two trades today (still on demo) 

First trade got out for +1 tick 

The 2nd trade brought home the bacon though!


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## Modest

FYI to those using AMP as a broker 

NFA Lawsuit against AMP

http://www.nfa.futures.org/basicnet/Case.aspx?entityid=0412490&case=15BCC00024&contrib=NFA


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## Modest

Modest said:


> FYI to those using AMP as a broker
> 
> NFA Lawsuit against AMP
> 
> http://www.nfa.futures.org/basicnet/Case.aspx?entityid=0412490&case=15BCC00024&contrib=NFA




They responded: http://www.elitetrader.com/et/index.php?threads/nfa-lawsuit-against-amp.293142/page-2

I respect their candour and I have opened a Futures account with them.


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## CanOz

There guys are one of the UK biggest Prop Shops. There are some good videos on execution using the DOM, as well as how they use volume and market profile to map the market structure.

FutexLive


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## Modest

CanOz said:


> There guys are one of the UK biggest Prop Shops. There are some good videos on execution using the DOM, as well as how they use volume and market profile to map the market structure.
> 
> FutexLive




Awesome, thanks for sharing!


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## baby_swallow

S&P 500 emini futures (ES)
I stumbled upon this website and I found it very informative.
Not only talks about the ES definition but also the background,
stats, market participants (VERY interesting), and why people trade
this market....

http://emini-watch.com/emini-trading/emini-futures/


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## Modest

Is anyone in touch with Pav? I think of him from time to time and wonder how he is doing.


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## kid hustlr

Modest said:


> Is anyone in touch with Pav? I think of him from time to time and wonder how he is doing.




He's going well mate - he's taken a step back from trading but he's in a good place.


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## Modest

Okay good to hear!


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## Jasonm2310

Anyone active in the futures markets atm?


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## darkhorse70

What happened to pav? 

Is he trading anymore?


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## captain black

Jasonm2310 said:


> Anyone active in the futures markets atm?




Yeh, trading the Kospi and SPI during the Asian session and the FESX in the evening.


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## CanOz

captain black said:


> Yeh, trading the Kospi and SPI during the Asian session and the FESX in the evening.




Dax mostly, occasionally FESX or 6A


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## darkhorse70

Woops, never mind.


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## Jasonm2310

CanOz said:


> Dax mostly, occasionally FESX or 6A




Nice! I've been steering clear from the quicker markets and been playing with the Aussie 10 year and U.S. T- notes, Au bank bills and US Eurodollars. Totally different feel from the currencies that could blow you out of the water in a blink of an eye..


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## Jasonm2310

Loving these Bonds!


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## Kryzz

I'm hoping to dip my toe into the water with futures in the not to distant future, before I do though does this thoug, I prepared a brief summary of the markets I hope to be keeping an eye on. Does this look somewhat accurate?

Could anyone comment on the mini dax in terms of liquidity, I read it's now up to about 5% of the full size contract and the spread averages 1-2 ticks?


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## RowanC

Kryzz said:


> I'm hoping to dip my toe into the water with futures in the not to distant future, before I do though does this thoug, I prepared a brief summary of the markets I hope to be keeping an eye on. Does this look somewhat accurate?
> 
> Could anyone comment on the mini dax in terms of liquidity, I read it's now up to about 5% of the full size contract and the spread averages 1-2 ticks?




These are some pretty wild markets you have here Kryzz.

The ES is 12.5 a tick.

I found the emini dax to be one of the wildest markets to trade. It's liquid (volume wise) but at the same time it's quite thin in terms of the orderbook, so that would also be something to consider depending on the type of strategy you intend to implement and the timeframe.


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## RowanC

Also just to add another idea - take a look at the bund (the German 10-yr bond).

It's quite a good market to trade in terms of volatility and liquidity. Commissions are quite good also.


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## Kryzz

RowanC said:


> These are some pretty wild markets you have here Kryzz.
> 
> The ES is 12.5 a tick.
> 
> .




Ahh, I was looking at the E-mini Dow ($5). Cheers


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## CanOz

RowanC said:


> Also just to add another idea - take a look at the bund (the German 10-yr bond).
> 
> It's quite a good market to trade in terms of volatility and liquidity. Commissions are quite good also.





The bund certainly made a move tonight!


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## priya0710

There are several advantages of investing in futures over stocks. One of them being an efficient tool to hedge risk against future price fluctuations.


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## grah33

hi
i've been playing around with currencies and i noticed i've got gold (xauusd), oil , sugar, cocoa and indices on mt4 as well.  wouldn't mind trading this as well later down the track. many people with forex trade a small basket of currencies e.g. 7 pairs or so, so opportunities are limited.  but if i added the above commodities, it might be a real help in achieving the financial freedom i seek (more uncorrelated opportunities to trade, i'm thinking).   small account here (30K) and i like to start out with microlot sizes so this might be the perfect place to trade futures (pepperstone allows me to trade small microlot sizes in some of the above commodities, using mt4).  i know people here think cfds are  unsafe and rubbish, but as a starting point for futures, until i have enough money, it would be  worthwhile i wonder.    my time-frames would be 4h and D1 .  how would that go you think? is it a good idea or maybe there is something i don't know about that is fundamentally flawed.  currencies can be correlated, and i'm thinking that the mt4 commodities e.g. XAU (GOLD) XTI (OIL)won't be as much correlated, so i will have more opportunities to trade, and this is a great idea worth perusing in the future. i'm just hoping that being a cfd broker product, if some disaster occurs (e.g. flash crash ) i wont get hammered to badly. i'll look at those charts on mt4 and see what kind of gaps have occurred in the past.


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## Wysiwyg

grah33 said:


> my time-frames would be 4h and D1 .  how would that go you think? is it a good idea or maybe there is something i don't know about that is fundamentally flawed.



Things I notice are spreads widening significantly at some after hours periods which would take out close stop losses. The spreads themselves are different between providers. Also the price difference between CFD providers which highlights how they each set their own price and the reason why traders prefer to trade the regulated Futures market. I have seen some unbelievable price action.


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## OmegaTrader

Wysiwyg said:


> Things I notice are spreads widening significantly at some after hours periods which would take out close stop losses. The spreads themselves are different between providers. Also the price difference between CFD providers which highlights how they each set their own price and the reason why traders prefer to trade the regulated Futures market. I have seen some unbelievable price action.




If you are starting really small- micro account what other option is there than otc/cfd providers?

$5 a point is a bit much, say if I am looking for a $1000-$2000 capital to start with.


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## minwa

grah33 said:


> hi
> i've been playing around with currencies and i noticed i've got gold (xauusd), oil , sugar, cocoa and indices on mt4 as well.  wouldn't mind trading this as well later down the track. many people with forex trade a small basket of currencies e.g. 7 pairs or so, so opportunities are limited.  but if i added the above commodities, it might be a real help in achieving the financial freedom i seek (more uncorrelated opportunities to trade, i'm thinking).   small account here (30K) and i like to start out with microlot sizes so this might be the perfect place to trade futures (pepperstone allows me to trade small microlot sizes in some of the above commodities, using mt4).  i know people here think cfds are  unsafe and rubbish, but as a starting point for futures, until i have enough money, it would be  worthwhile i wonder.    my time-frames would be 4h and D1 .  how would that go you think? is it a good idea or maybe there is something i don't know about that is fundamentally flawed.  currencies can be correlated, and i'm thinking that the mt4 commodities e.g. XAU (GOLD) XTI (OIL)won't be as much correlated, so i will have more opportunities to trade, and this is a great idea worth perusing in the future. i'm just hoping that being a cfd broker product, if some disaster occurs (e.g. flash crash ) i wont get hammered to badly. i'll look at those charts on mt4 and see what kind of gaps have occurred in the past.




If you are trading on 4h and D1 and you have 30k and are worried about CFDs (yes, you should be worried) you can trade equities (ETFs) on the currencies/commodities, if you don't like the leverage in the futures. Not much point looking on the gaps on MT4, your feed and fills will vary when you actually have live positions on.

For correlations you can check this page http://www.mrci.com/special/correl.php , the closer to 0 the less correlated.



OmegaTrader said:


> If you are starting really small- micro account what other option is there than otc/cfd providers?
> 
> $5 a point is a bit much, say if I am looking for a $1000-$2000 capital to start with.




Demo trade and save until you are well capitalized - yes the 2 words a beginner trader hate hearing the most - demo and save.


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## T0BY

I trade stock index CFD's with Pepperstone 1:100 leverage. I always thought CFD providers offset risk exposure on their books from clients by hedging in the futures market. 
I've looked at some of the soft commodities they recently introduced but honestly the spread to ADR ratio makes them untradable for myself as I'm a day trader. 
If you're trading off the 4H and 1D chart the swap rates every day are going to hurt. You'd be better of trading futures. To open a futures account with Interactive Brokers I believe they only require $10,000 (might be USD?)


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## OmegaTrader

minwa said:


> If you are trading on 4h and D1 and you have 30k and are worried about CFDs (yes, you should be worried) you can trade equities (ETFs) on the currencies/commodities, if you don't like the leverage in the futures. Not much point looking on the gaps on MT4, your feed and fills will vary when you actually have live positions on.
> 
> For correlations you can check this page http://www.mrci.com/special/correl.php , the closer to 0 the less correlated.
> 
> 
> 
> Demo trade and save until you are well capitalized - yes the 2 words a beginner trader hate hearing the most - demo and save.



At the moment 10k is out of the picture.
demo it is.


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## CanOz

You can open an account with AMP clearing with $500 and get CQG data. Go through Modest's or Pavs thread and then start to get some screen time.


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## Virge666

minwa said:


> For correlations you can check this page http://www.mrci.com/special/correl.php , the closer to 0 the less correlated.




Thanks for this..  Nice one.


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## grah33

Wouldn't mind a bit of clarification on why the spot and futures markets follow each other closely enough?

I'm thinking a gold watch manufacturer might buy gold from futures instead of the spot market if it's cheaper... This helps with keeping both markets at a similar price... The thing is, the futures markets are moved mostly by speculators and what they think, rather then real needs people. maybe their speculation is what mostly moves the futures price, and in turn the spot market follows ? Don't know, just thinking about it.


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## cynic

grah33 said:


> Wouldn't mind a bit of clarification on why the spot and futures markets follow each other closely enough?
> ...




Arbitrage in response to fair value adjustement considerations, seems the more probable explanation:
http://www.cmegroup.com/trading/equity-index/fairvalue.html


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## minwa

grah33 said:


> The thing is, the futures markets are moved mostly by speculators and what they think, rather then real needs people.




Commercial hedgers (real needs people - producers) of commodities are as influential to price as large speculators (funds).


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## grah33

minwa said:


> Commercial hedgers (real needs people - producers) of commodities are as influential to price as large speculators (funds).



I read somewhere that 98% of futures traders don't take delivery of the product (are speculators)


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## minwa

grah33 said:


> I read somewhere that 98% of futures traders don't take delivery of the product (are speculators)




Yes, the producers do not take actual delivery via futures contract. Participants are big producer companies from all over the world, for them all to get their supply of commodity via the trading exchanges would be logistically impossible.

They do so via their usual suppliers of commodities. They participate in the futures market to hedge the price. This does not make them speculators. Their hedge in the futures market balances out price in their price fluctuations of purchases with suppliers.

You can see the trading volume of producers easily in a COT.


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## grah33

minwa said:


> Yes, the producers do not take actual delivery via futures contract. Participants are big producer companies from all over the world, for them all to get their supply of commodity via the trading exchanges would be logistically impossible.
> 
> They do so via their usual suppliers of commodities. They participate in the futures market to hedge the price. This does not make them speculators. Their hedge in the futures market balances out price in their price fluctuations of purchases with suppliers.
> 
> You can see the trading volume of producers easily in a COT.
> 
> View attachment 87953



Okay then. Thx for the detailed explanation.


----------



## grah33

I got CQG data hooked up with mt5, to a futures exchange. Just playing around a bit. The tech-support people reckon it's real volume I've got , unlike Forex trading (it's got Volumes and tick volumes on the chart). The thing is, if I look at the same contract – emini SP 500 – the current chart and the one just expired don't have the same volumes and tick volumes values. They're not identical. Anyone know why? And i'm not talking about the rollover period. I wonder if I really am seeing correct volume data figures?  I need charts with volume figures just like everyone else who trades futures


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## CanOz

So what two s&p contracts are you comparing? What is the exact time on those that you are comparing??


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## grah33

CanOz said:


> So what two s&p contracts are you comparing? What is the exact time on those that you are comparing??




D1 daily timeframe, say the doji on 8-5-18...

Comparing

emini SP 500 june EPM8 : Volumes reads 1238697 (june contract)

emini SP 500 september (current) EPU8 : Volumes reads 1359 (september contract)

(using mt5 connected to futures exchange )

I know the September contract doesn't cover that day, but one might go back in time to look at the chart there, and I'd expect it to display the same value.

For yesterday's daily candle (a sizable up candle), current september contract shows:

805704 (Volumes )

340460 (Tick Volumes )

(using mt5 )

is that correct?  hopefully at least these values are correct.

Thanks again


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## CanOz

Why would you assume different expires have the same value for volume?


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## CanOz

The eminis trade in three month expirys. The June contract rolls to September in mid June. Check the cme website for dates but it rolls on volume anyway. You're comparison involves volume in May where June is the front month, so of course it has more volume than September, which has yet to roll to front.


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## grah33

CanOz said:


> Why would you assume different expires have the same value for volume?



Not in the rollover period, but before it on the chart that displays it (i can view earlier dates in current contract, though they aren't part of this contract).  it would be better to just not show anything since the contract doesn't cover those days, or show the same as the previous contract

in any case , is the last candle correct at least ? If so I would assume all the other volumes and tick volumes values in this current contract are correct.


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## grah33

(just added)
i responded to early. so now i'm reading your recent second post....


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## CanOz

For long term comparison we use continuous futures, either merged back adjusted, or merged non back adjusted. Suggest that Mt does offer that feature


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## grah33

minwa said:


> Mostly influenced by works of Larry Williams/George Angell/Tony Crabell. FX a former CitiBank trader showed me the ropes. Options is my own maths-based work on volatility/premium/time.



any book in particular with trading methods that work, or maybe VSA is being used by the others here for futures trading?


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## minwa

grah33 said:


> any book in particular with trading methods that work, or maybe VSA is being used by the others here for futures trading?




Williams: how i made one mil 
Crabel: opening range breakout (this books costs around 1k unless you can find a good 2nd hand)
Angell: sniper trading

They only teach concepts that you have to develop into your own method. I am not familiar with VSA so search other's posts for that.


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## grah33

minwa said:


> Williams: how i made one mil
> Crabel: opening range breakout (this books costs around 1k unless you can find a good 2nd hand)
> Angell: sniper trading
> 
> They only teach concepts that you have to develop into your own method. I am not familiar with VSA so search other's posts for that.




Thanks for the tips (definitely appreciated). I had a good look at the Table of Contents of those books on amazon, trying to gleam out what area of technical analyses they use, but the William's book didn't really reveal much in the TOC (you gotta read the chapter itself). Can I ask is there a name for the type of technical analyses that might work in index futures?  I'm familiar with forex price action stuff, although it didn't work well with Forex (to me, so far).  Maybe this kind of stuff (price action e.g range inflections, trend pullback entries) would work with futures though...


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## CanOz

If you want to trade futures check out www.axiafutures.com

Also, a heads up. If you want this bad enough you need to either fork out enough dough for training and education from reputable sources or do the hard work yourself....I'm guessing neither is that appealing to you given you couldn't even be bothered buying a book!


----------



## minwa

grah33 said:


> Thanks for the tips (definitely appreciated). I had a good look at the Table of Contents of those books on amazon, trying to gleam out what area of technical analyses they use, but the William's book didn't really reveal much in the TOC (you gotta read the chapter itself). Can I ask is there a name for the type of technical analyses that might work in index futures?  I'm familiar with forex price action stuff, although it didn't work well with Forex (to me, so far).  Maybe this kind of stuff (price action e.g range inflections, trend pullback entries) would work with futures though...




You have to make your own type. Almost every type of TA uses the same input derivative - price/time/volume etc. If you must follow something perhaps try VSA as you've shown interest in it and a few here have good success with it.


----------



## grah33

CanOz said:


> If you want to trade futures check out www.axiafutures.com
> 
> Also, a heads up. If you want this bad enough you need to either fork out enough dough for training and education from reputable sources or do the hard work yourself....I'm guessing neither is that appealing to you given you couldn't even be bothered buying a book!




The link looks interesting. I scoped their strategies (includes using order flow and volume profiling), similar to what you're doing (initially those side histograms threw me off).  The courses are expensive though, but it would be great to get it all done fast I suppose. Regards Minwas book, I could have bought it but I'm not sure if that's the direction for me. But i might get it anyway.


----------



## grah33

minwa said:


> You have to make your own type. Almost every type of TA uses the same input derivative - price/time/volume etc. If you must follow something perhaps try VSA as you've shown interest in it and a few here have good success with it.





Yeah, that is what is luring me, the VSA, as it's popular around here .But i'll keep being open minded and see. You probably use volume just in a different way or similar. I got to pick a TA way and go for it. Either VSA , or explore those books u mentioned, or the profiling and order flow methods out there. Or maybe keep trying price action with no volume stuff at all (as in the babypips course).


----------



## minwa

grah33 said:


> Yeah, that is what is luring me, the VSA, as it's popular around here .But i'll keep being open minded and see. You probably use volume just in a different way or similar. I got to pick a TA way and go for it. Either VSA , or explore those books u mentioned, or the profiling and order flow methods out there. Or maybe keep trying price action with no volume stuff at all (as in the babypips course).




I do not use volume at all. There are some who swear by it. So have a explore and see if it suits you. If you wish you can youtube some Larry Williams materials to see if it resonates with you before you purchase the book. Do the same with VSA/profiling/orderflow. 

PS. George Angell's book only applies to day trading so if you wan't to trade longer term no need to consider it.


----------



## CanOz

If you're going to do this, then start writing a plan. What market? You need a market that suits your time zone or hours where you can sit in front of the screen. What time frame? Are you only technical or fundamental? What about economic news?


----------



## CanOz

If you're going to do this, then start writing a plan. What market? You need a market that suits your time zone or hours where you can sit in front of the screen. What time frame? Are you only technical or fundamental? What about economic news?


----------



## grah33

CanOz said:


> If you're going to do this, then start writing a plan. What market? You need a market that suits your time zone or hours where you can sit in front of the screen. What time frame? Are you only technical or fundamental? What about economic news?



I'll probably try the emini 500 SP first, since that's what everyone else is doing , and it's liquid, good for learning. Just a technical trader, short term only .


----------



## jjbinks

Trembling Hand said:


> If learning is what you really want to do. Here would be my steps to learning futs if I was to do it again.
> 
> Spend some time learning basic NT (5 -10 hours)
> 
> ... Turn on NTs playback function. Set it to 10x speed and hit with all you have. Trade it seriously with 2 lots and don't kid yourself. Keep stats (which NT is good at) and really work on them. Win rate, R:R hold time etc. You will do 20 hours of intense trading and training in two hours. After a few months you will literately have years of examples played out in your head.




Is Ninjatrader still the best platform from playback perspective. I use metatrader but replay is "manual" (i.e. scroll through old charts at your own pace and then have to calculate your own winloss ratios/hold time etc.)


----------



## grah33

CanOz said:


> If you want to trade futures check out www.axiafutures.com
> 
> Also, a heads up. If you want this bad enough you need to either fork out enough dough for training and education from reputable sources or do the hard work yourself....I'm guessing neither is that appealing to you given you couldn't even be bothered buying a book!




It's been a while since I've been around, but I've been learning and I'm still in the game. I wouldn't mind getting your opinion on something. I got jigsaw DOM and did the course that goes with it (almost finished).  I can either do the Axia price ladder (preferred choice) course, or the Axia volume profile course, or the No BS course. No_BS day trading course is just so much cheaper (under 100 bucks). U reckon it teaches one how to actually make money? Maybe it can teach me how to scalp gold and oil (London time), while the price ladder Axia course is position day trading. Dk.  Thought I'd ask as you give good advice often enough.


----------



## CanOz

The ladder is the ladder, there's not allot the guys at Axia will teach you that Pete can't. They have plenty of free vids too that are well worth watching. However, any course on market/volume profile is worth the money if it can teach you how to develop context.


----------



## grah33

CanOz said:


> The ladder is the ladder, there's not allot the guys at Axia will teach you that Pete can't. They have plenty of free vids too that are well worth watching. However, any course on market/volume profile is worth the money if it can teach you how to develop context.



Their volume profile course has about 40 hours from memory, while 20 hours for the ladder  course, so I guess there isn't a great deal in the ladder course to learn. But hey have traders that are profitable using ladder techniques, such as ladder patterns . Maybe it's better for me – much less work, but still learn how to make money .  And seeing the orders  and tape print trades might be the way.

I don't recall pete using ladder techniques, but rather TA stuff like candlestick patterns and getting into trends . DK how that works with GOLD and oil and indices, but it didn't work for me (and others ) on currency. If it did, it would have been great, e.g. trendline bounce setup + candle pattern...


----------



## CanOz

Pete, as in Peter Davies from jigsaw trading, he’s all order flow but uses profiles for context. Only you can teach yourself to trade. All the courses in the world Will only show you what to look for and when and how to manage the risk for a positive expectancy over time. You still have to develop your thesis and validate it before It becomes a play in your book of tricks...


----------

