# AGY - Argosy Minerals



## sydneysider (16 March 2007)

A completely ignored stock. Rags to riches may unfold. Situated in Burundi which has been racked by civil war, now peace has broken out. 99 million shares at 35 cents (up almost 130% to-day) and holds about 6% of the world's nickel (i am told) and AGY hold a 100% interest. Took a position earlier to-day. More to follow..later...good luck to all longs


----------



## sydneysider (17 March 2007)

sydneysider said:
			
		

> A completely ignored stock. Rags to riches may unfold. Situated in Burundi which has been racked by civil war, now peace has broken out. 99 million shares at 35 cents (up almost 130% to-day) and holds about 6% of the world's nickel (i am told) and AGY hold a 100% interest. Took a position earlier to-day. More to follow..later...good luck to all longs




The current status is that meetings will be held with senior members of the Burundi Government in late April and that discussions are underway with major mining groups. AGY acquired the Musongati Nickel Project in 1999 and was forced to declare Force Majuere several times due to severe political instability in the country which has now been followed by peace since the last quarter of calender 2006. AGY will seek written assurances from the Government that it can proceed with development of the Musongati (as the original five year time line was totally disrupted by civil war on numerous occasions).

Musongati is a massive, world class nickel and PGM Project. It hosts three surface lateritic nickel deposits that overlay a very large ni sulphide and PGM system. The largest of the surface deposits was drilled in the 1980's with 237 dd holes to a depth of 60 meters and came up with a non-JORC resource (there was no current jorc definition at the time)  at Buhindi for 185,000,000 tonnes at 1.31% nickel and .08% cobalt containing 2,423,000 tonnes of ni and 148,000 tonnes of co for a current "in situ" value of US$126 Billion. This does NOT include the other 2 surface laterite ni deposits or any value attached to deeper ni sulfides or PGM's (which are substantial). 

AGY closed on Friday at 34 cents / market cap of A$32.6 million. IF we assume a value of 1% to AGY for its project then it is worth US$1.26 Billion / A$A$1.6 Billion / A$16.66 share. Any comments?


----------



## sydneysider (18 March 2007)

I am stunned that no-one else on this thread has picked up on the significance of what is happening at AGY. The Mosongati Project is about equivalent in size to Voisey Bay on the KNOWN and drilled non JORC resources at Buhindi which hosts 5.3 million pounds of lateritic nickel within an open pittable area about 50-60 meters deep. Compared with Voisey Bay at 6 million pounds of nickel. 

At Musongati the above resource does NOT include the drilled resources on two additional drilled nickel laterite deposits NOR the  hardrock ni and PGM potential. To get a sense of the PGM potential..read the 2002 Annual Report. AGY discusses two DDH drilled 8 kms apart on a 12 km long ultramafic zone. DDH 57 intersected 280 meters of PGM's with values ranging 1.5 g/t to 5.4 g/t down to 303 m and DDH 59 with 95 intersections down to 456 m ranging up to 10.2 g/t of PGM's. These values occur BOTH in the laterites and in the hardrock and there are a substantial number of other holes also drilled here.

A number of major miners have signed confidentiality agreements with AGY and various studies have been underway with them, various universities and folks such as Robertson Research.

I have never seen an ASX minnow sitting on something with this type of massive potential in my lifetime of following stocks. The fact that AGY is valued at  96 million shares at 34 cents for a market cap of A$34 million is simply outstanding. The development cost of the project may be around $500 million (via google search of internet news) for the open pittable nickel resource (with PGM's and ni sulfides to follow). At this stage the project will qualify for a NYSE listing and a valuation that would have made INCO proud. Inco was valued at $17 billion when it was bought out. So we are certainly looking at something that has multi-billion potential but with many twists and turns ahead. The first will be the meeting with Burundi Government next month and the second will be a JV deal or deals with some of the biggest mining houses on earth keen to get their hands on 6% of the worlds nickel supply. 

I managed to pick some AGY's up at 33 & 34 on Friday. Good luck to all longs.


----------



## Archie (18 March 2007)

Hi Sydneysider, Frustrating isnt it but I can assure you that as a very long time share holder I am definitely aware of the significance of this latest development and agree with your anaylsis 100%.

Judging by the trading activity on Friday it would seem that others are also very much aware of the potential here and it looks like AGY is going to be very volatile in the next few weeks as a result of the latest developments.

Just one question though regarding your valuation of $16 a share, does that include the copper?

I have also compared AGY to the Murrin Murin project in WA that is jointly owned by Glencore 40% and Minara resources 60%. 
They have 145 million tons & when at full capacity will eventually produce 40k tons of nickel & 2500 tons of cobalt per annum with a mine life of 40 years. AGY's potential appears to be better than that.

Minara is currently priced at around $6.00 per share so I guess one could assume a similar share price for AGY in the next few years if not sooner.
Bring it on.


----------



## Sean K (18 March 2007)

Hmmm, I'm not sure how this Ni is going to get to the market. Burundi, in central Africa, no trains to the coast.  Fly it out?  

Interested to know the logistics on this one...

I suppose with that much value they can build their own rail line.

Need a significant JV partner I'd expect. BHP size maybe?

Only up 112% on Friday, not sure what the fuss is about. LOL   

Burundi is still a major issue I feel. Peace is only ever temporary in Burundi/Rwanda.


----------



## the barry (18 March 2007)

Having a resource is one thing getting the resource to production is another, this is reflected in the share price. Problems AGY face in Burundi are as follows;

Geographically isolated, facing population pressures and having sparse resources, Burundi is one of the poorest and most conflict-ridden countries in Africa and in the world. Its small size belies the magnitude of the problems it faces in reconciling the claims of the Tutsi minority with the Hutu majority.Logisitically it seems hard to get the product to market?

The country is landlocked with Rwanda to the North & the Democratic Republic of Congo to the West. The country has seen genocide & mass killings of more than 500,000 of it's citizens & has been incivil war for decades. In short it is an incredibly poor, unstable nation, with ethnic divide.
However taken from Wilipedia(not sure of when this was last updated) is this comment on the current situation between the Hutu & Tutsi in Burundi:

"The same civil war made other more people refugees outside Burundi and others displaced within Burundi. In general, in Burundi, Hutu have been vulnerable target of more mass killings and the Genocide organized by the former governments of Burundi. The current government makes a difference in such way that it is made up of both Hutu and Tutsi. And the Military is made up of both former Hutu rebels and former Tutsi government soldiers. Many people in Burundi have now expectations of living in a country without war any more."


That comment is encouraging, However the country is highly unstable & the cease fire called by the president is no certainty to hold.

If the meeting on the 23rd of April is successful & stability is sustained then AGY has a chance to go from exploration to producer(either off capital raising or a JV) then the share price has potential for exponential growth.

There is a lot of if's involved & you wouldn't want to put more in this one than you can afford to lose, having said that it is worth a punt on potential gain alone.

Will have a dabble on Monday, Thanks for bring it to the attention of the board Sydneysider


----------



## Sean K (18 March 2007)

:iagree: 

I spent 6 months in Rwanda with the UN in 94/5 and I know the area relatively well I suppose. This region of the world is going to be at war for the foreseable future. The Tutsi and Hutu just don't get on unfortunately.....Anyway, that's medium term stuff. In the short term, might be a few $$ to be made out of this one. Good luck. Will be very interesting to see the open Monday.


----------



## sydneysider (18 March 2007)

kennas said:
			
		

> :iagree:
> 
> I spent 6 months in Rwanda with the UN in 94/5 and I know the area relatively well I suppose. This region of the world is going to be at war for the foreseable future. The Tutsi and Hutu just don't get on unfortunately.....Anyway, that's medium term stuff. In the short term, might be a few $$ to be made out of this one. Good luck. Will be very interesting to see the open Monday.




The IMF Survey of October 30, 2006 is very interesting reading. 2006 GDP growth was estimated at 6%. Burundi started a full scale reform program several years ago. The value of the Burundi Franc has stabilized over the last two years at around 1,000 Francs to US$ (form a high of 1,300 several years prior at the height of the civil war). The last stage of the peace settlement with rebel forces was signed early in the last quarter of 2006 and democratic elections have been held. The nation appears to be on the path of full "western style" reform program with transparent government, privatization of the business sector, now fully underway in sectors such as coffeee production. Full cooperation with the IMF and World Bank and other donors are dispensing funds into the country (some as benchmarks are meet). The resources sector will be governed by international "best practice" in cooperation with recommendation from IMF and World Bank. A heavy emphasis over the last six months on attracting capital into this and other business sectors. 

My sense is that the meeting with senior government officials in late April will be to announce a "go-ahead" on Musongati (otherwise there is no point in publizing the meeting as I am sure there are ongoing discussions with various public servants underway now / or completed to clear the way for coming meeting). AGY has already stated that officials are very positive about their relations with the company (why make this statement if the result will be negative?). 

My search of various news wires indicates that there has been no fighting for a considerable period of time and all of the news seems to be focussed on health and poverty issues, good relations with neigbors and sports news. 

Will be watching the market on Monday to see how much effect this will have on the capitalization of  AGY. Should be a very interesting several weeks. IMHO AGY has a substantial upside potential. It is also interesting to note that AGY was going to pull its status as a registered public Canadian company (late last year due to compliance costs)) and they now seem to be maintaing their Canadian status althou the stock is untraded at this time. The North American markets love these "big picture" stocks and I assume that we will be trading publicly soon on the TSX Venture Exchange.


----------



## robandcoll (18 March 2007)

HC are all over it. Will be interesting first couple of hours


----------



## the barry (18 March 2007)

robandcoll said:
			
		

> HC are all over it. Will be interesting first couple of hours




Buy the rumour, Sell the fact.


----------



## Sean K (19 March 2007)

robandcoll said:
			
		

> HC are all over it. Will be interesting first couple of hours



Probably a pump and dump. Be careful ppl!


----------



## the barry (19 March 2007)

kennas said:
			
		

> Probably a pump and dump. Be careful ppl!




Right on the money mate. Bought in at 40 and sold at 45. Only bought 20,000, but not bad for 30 seconds work.


----------



## sydneysider (19 March 2007)

kennas said:
			
		

> Probably a pump and dump. Be careful ppl!




One of the AGY neigbors is AVM based in South Congo. Went from 10 cents to $17.00 (restructured) but i recall they had rebels fighting next to their copper production plant several years ago. That was one heck of a risky investment? 

IMHO AGY is a re-run of a similar rags to riches story. To-day's trading seems to be holding up very well in the low 40's. Does not look like a pump and dump, the selling volume volume is way too low and their seems to be a lot more buy pressure around.


----------



## Sean K (19 March 2007)

sydneysider said:
			
		

> One of the AGY neigbors is AVM based in South Congo. Went from 10 cents to $17.00 (restructured) but i recall they had rebels fighting next to their copper production plant several years ago. That was one heck of a risky investment?
> 
> IMHO AGY is a re-run of a similar rags to riches story. To-day's trading seems to be holding up very well in the low 40's. Does not look like a pump and dump, the selling volume volume is way too low and their seems to be a lot more buy pressure around.



Is holding up well. Day traders are obviously on it though. If it's mentioned on HC....So, will be interesting to see how it unfolds. If you're trading it, just don't get caught when the day traders jump ship I suppose. If you're in for the long haul, good luck.


----------



## sydneysider (19 March 2007)

kennas said:
			
		

> Is holding up well. Day traders are obviously on it though. If it's mentioned on HC....So, will be interesting to see how it unfolds. If you're trading it, just don't get caught when the day traders jump ship I suppose. If you're in for the long haul, good luck.




Sometimes my long hauls last as long as the time it takes to smoke one (corona size) cigar. There are too many interesting things going on here. Several of the majors signed confidentiality agreements with AGY after they acquired their Burundi properties in 1999 and IMHO there is a lot of chatter going on between them all.


----------



## Mousie (19 March 2007)

sydneysider said:
			
		

> Sometimes my long hauls last as long as the time it takes to smoke one (corona size) cigar. There are too many interesting things going on here. Several of the majors signed confidentiality agreements with AGY after they acquired their Burundi properties in 1999 and IMHO there is a lot of chatter going on between them all.




LOL sydney does this mean you're looking to get out ASAP? If so you'd have sold @45-46c this morn...else your previously indicated target price of $16 seem to indicate hope of another PDN/FMG, and they take a few years...definitely not cigar time LOL


----------



## sydneysider (19 March 2007)

Mousie said:
			
		

> LOL sydney does this mean you're looking to get out ASAP? If so you'd have sold @45-46c this morn...else your previously indicated target price of $16 seem to indicate hope of another PDN/FMG, and they take a few years...definitely not cigar time LOL




I have not sold any, bought more on the lows to-day. Please do not construe $16 as a price target, it is not intended as such, but it does indicate that AGY is sitting on a very major deposit of ni laced with PGM's. IMHO the current price is undergoing a very substantial re-rating and may continue higher. My sense is that we are headed much higher. 

I tend to play each stock as a momentum play and currently AGY seems to fit this bill perfectly. I do not think that she will break down at these levels, althou there could be some "churn" and my gut tells me that the next four weeks should see substantial news IMHO we have three angles here (1) Burundi Government OK's development of the project (2) A major steps in to take a major position (3) AGY re-lists on a Canadian Exchange. All of these points are speculation at this stage and well researched and punted speculation can be very rewarding. 

We just closed at 38 cents on a volume of 5,760,000 shares which is indicative of interest from lots of various parties. The typical collapse after the "spike" did not happen to-day.


----------



## the barry (20 March 2007)

Sting has definatly gone out of this one. Not much on the buying side at all. With the meeting around the 19th of april, will need some announcements to keep the share price up. Will not be suprised to see it drift back to the mid 20's in the next couple of days.


----------



## sydneysider (20 March 2007)

the barry said:
			
		

> Sting has definatly gone out of this one. Not much on the buying side at all. With the meeting around the 19th of april, will need some announcements to keep the share price up. Will not be suprised to see it drift back to the mid 20's in the next couple of days.




AGY is a Canadian company. When we trade AGY securities in Australia we are trading Chess Depositary interests (the shares stay in Canada). At the moment AGY is a public company in Canada but it was de-listed from the Toronto Venture Exchange back in 2002 due to lack of interest. They collected $7,000,000 from Norilsk for their breach of contract on a Caledonian nickel project JV several years ago (which has kept them going). 

Their filings with SEDAR are very current. Last year they said that they would discontinue them to save money and change the domicile back to Australia. Everything seems to have changed and IMHO they are planning to re-list in Canada. They also file with the US SEC which is very interesting. Each year they file their U.S. 20-F on the 31st of March. IF they file one at the end of this month it means that they have complied with US listing requirements. Typically small Canadian resource companies list on AMEX when they have major projects underway and require funding and exposure. It also means that an AMEX listing qualifies u as suitable for investment from 401K's and pension funds.


----------



## sydneysider (21 March 2007)

There was a fascinating (and large) article about Aussie miners who are in the Congo on the FRONT PAGE of the US Wall Street Journal this morning. It went into the history of how Anvil Mining went to Belgium to pour over a tresure trove of old hand drawn (century old) and very accurate mineral maps created by the Belgians when they ran the Congo (they also collect a massive amount of mineral samples). These maps and samples allowed Anvil to peg some of the choicest bits of the Congo and develop a very profitable and growing mining company. 

The Congo is really a massive treasure trove with the likes of BHP on the hunt for elephants, they are everywhere. The Belgians also administered Burundi for a lengthy time and assume they went over Burundi in the same manner. Burundi is the small pimple that is stuck to the Eastern side of the Congo and is an extension of the same highly mineralized systems. 

After contracting with the Burundi Government to develop Musongati AGY completed a feasibility study in 2001-2 that conclued that Musongati's 2.4 million tonnes of open pittable lateritic nickel was a "marginal" economic operation when all of the infrastucture requirements were considered. At the time nickel was US$6.50 pound and cobalt was US $3 pound. AGY then turned to evaluate the PGM potential which is very extensive (see my earlier post). They were looking to gravity seperate the PGM's from the oxidized layer of 185,000,000 tonnes in the open pit zone. Their agreement with the Government also required AGY to come up with the funds or a JV partner to develop the deposit and they entered into a number of confidentiality agreements with various majors to continue various studies. 

Interestingly enough they set their Canadian office up in Langley (a suburb of Vancouver) which is nearby some of the worlds best and very innovative folk who build gravity seperator plants. Assuming that the 185,000,000 tonne resource carries 1 g/t then we have 6,000,000 ounces of PGM's. Platinum at the time was US$600 oz, now it is $1,300. Nickel is now over $20 pound and cobalt is at $30 pound. I do not think think that Musongati is marginal at this stage. I bought more this morning. Good luck to all longs.


----------



## sydneysider (23 March 2007)

kennas said:
			
		

> Is holding up well. Day traders are obviously on it though. If it's mentioned on HC....So, will be interesting to see how it unfolds. If you're trading it, just don't get caught when the day traders jump ship I suppose. If you're in for the long haul, good luck.




Kennas, bears careful watching. No pump and dump. Has "crawled" up from 29 over the last few days on very moderate volume to 37.5.


----------



## ZzzzDad (23 March 2007)

I'm new to this board  One question:  Is the fact that the stock is holding up on lower volume a good sign?  Explain.

This is a stock I bought many many moons ago.  It is one of those I didn't sell because I haven't needed the tax loss.  I bought it during the '90s when it was Argosy Mining, and the focus was on Kremnica (sp?).  It dropped so low after that didn't pan out, that I put it in my trash pile to be used as a tax loss when I needed it.

Got my hopes up during the New Caledonia thing, but didn't get out before the collapse when the deal fell through.  31,700 shares.


----------



## lounge chair (24 March 2007)

The good thing is the day traders are out, hence the lower volume compared to last week & monday. Its pull back from its high of 46, has been on lower volume which is good. Averaged mid 30's for most of the week, on low volume, someone accumlating imo. Due to only 95mill shares on issue, if someone wants some they have to do it discreetly, or risk the sp running too high, and have the DT's come back in. One thing for sure if the JV news is positive this will run that quick it wont be funny.


----------



## sydneysider (26 March 2007)

lounge chair said:


> the good thing is the day traders are out, hence the lower volume compared to last week & monday. It's pull back from its high of 46, has been on lower volume which is good. Averaged mid 30's for most of the week, on low volume, someone accumalating imo. Due to only 95mill shares on issue, if someone wants some they have to do it discreetly, or risk the sp running to high, and have the DT's come back in. One thing for sure if the JV news is positive this will run that quick it wont be funny.




Hit 40.5 now trading at 40 on decent volume. Technically we have broken upwards from a consolidation pattern and we have some opportunity here to see higher prices.


----------



## dj_420 (26 March 2007)

AGY have held around the mid thirties for last week. any news of JV will mean blue sky for this one.

with a insitu resource value of 170 billion, its hard to see why majors havent snapped up JV deal IMO. burundi govt gets 15% of resource value which still leaves a lot for a prospective JV partner to get in on.

IMO the stability of the country will be the ultimate deciding factor that will pan out and show us if the 6% of worlds nickel supplies will be developed.


----------



## sydneysider (26 March 2007)

dj_420 said:


> AGY have held around the mid thirties for last week. any news of JV will mean blue sky for this one.
> 
> with a insitu resource value of 170 billion, its hard to see why majors havent snapped up JV deal IMO. burundi govt gets 15% of resource value which still leaves a lot for a prospective JV partner to get in on.
> 
> IMO the stability of the country will be the ultimate deciding factor that will pan out and show us if the 6% of worlds nickel supplies will be developed.




Hit 42.5 on 1.4 million shares. Someone wants more, blue sky on this run at 46


----------



## dj_420 (26 March 2007)

technically this is all short term however does look good.

original breakout was on massive volume and saw spike up to 46 cents. consolidated and found bottom at 29 cents. share price on closing has run a short term channel in 34 - 38 cents range on smaller volume. 

todays trading has shown a break above the 38 cents on a slight increase in volume compared to last week. short term resistance would be 46 cent mark.

i put short term support at 34 cents as a downside. from here i want to see sp close above the 40 cent region and build a new base.

this one will have large interest leading up to discussions with burundi govt. with market cap of 36 million i see significant upside to a positive ann from AGY regarding JV partners and possible devlepmont of burundi resource.

volatility is expected on such a large increase in sp.


----------



## dj_420 (26 March 2007)

great close, AGY closed on the high of the day. more and more this story is been told, all this one needs now is political stability! oh yeah and a JV partner!


----------



## dj_420 (27 March 2007)

AGY touched on 50 cents, is anyone else on this one???
perhaps we have ann coming regarding JV with a major, could explain massive buying up, up on good volume.

also has been some press coverage about situation in burundi, currently govt is focusing on maintaining peaceful situation perhaps they want their slice of the burundi deposit pie!


----------



## dj_420 (27 March 2007)

BHP been taking stakes in burundi, maybe next one on list is AGY

http://www.miningweekly.co.za/article.php?a_id=102678


----------



## sydneysider (27 March 2007)

IMHO BHP is one of a small group of majors who signed confidentiality agreements with AGY (see US SEC 20-F) some years ago and they have had several years to review a substantial amount of drilling data and various studies completed by AGY into the feasibility of mining Musongati. We are now trading in the low 50's and IMHO we will not stay there very long.


----------



## dj_420 (27 March 2007)

surely someone from ASF is on this one also???

around 15% increase on 4 million traded today, sellers thinning right out. what do people think of this one? surely in those 4 million traded someone on this site has entered a position


----------



## noobs (27 March 2007)

DJ 420,

I took a posie this arvo after your post in the breakout thread. On as per the blue sky rule but wouldn't have seen it till after close so thankyou and good luck. Tomorrow should be interesting lets hope the dow is in the green.


----------



## the barry (27 March 2007)

dj_420 said:


> surely someone from ASF is on this one also???
> 
> around 15% increase on 4 million traded today, sellers thinning right out. what do people think of this one? surely in those 4 million traded someone on this site has entered a position





Got greedy waiting for it to go back down to mid thirties. Silly me 

Bought in this afternoon & eagerly await the outcome of the meeting in April. 

AGY Should be an interesting ride.


----------



## sydneysider (28 March 2007)

dj_420 said:


> BHP been taking stakes in burundi, maybe next one on list is AGY
> 
> http://www.miningweekly.co.za/article.php?a_id=102678




Xstrata has just announced a friendly US$3.6 billion takover of LionOre. This monrings Wall Street Journal quoted their management as saying that they want to explore (nickel) opportunities in Central and Southern Africa. AGY's current non JORC resource base of 2.4 million pounds of ni (from one part of Mousongati) is only slightly smaller than LionOres 3 million pound ni resource. IMHO AGY's current valuation of A$48 million is set to increase rather substantially  and Xstrata may be seriously interest in AGY because of the massive size of the resource and Xstrata's operating experience with laterites.


----------



## sydneysider (28 March 2007)

sydneysider said:


> Xstrata has just announced a friendly US$3.6 billion takover of LionOre. This monrings Wall Street Journal quoted their management as saying that they want to explore (nickel) opportunities in Central and Southern Africa. AGY's current non JORC resource base of 2.4 million pounds of ni (from one part of Mousongati) is only slightly smaller than LionOres 3 million pound ni resource. IMHO AGY's current valuation of A$48 million is set to increase rather substantially  and Xstrata may be seriously interest in AGY because of the massive size of the resource and Xstrata's operating experience with laterites.




Correction. The correct amount of ni at Mousangati is 5.3 billion pounds in a drilled out resource. The Wall Street Journal has run several articles about BHP & Xstrata seeking major deposits including Burundi recently. The other two major producers are Norlisk who did a massive breach of contract on AGY in Caledonia and the Brazilians who run a company whose name I cannot pronounce. As a speculator i would have to guess that the majors would be very interested in Musongati due to its massive size, decent grade shallow open pit and very large potential for deeper goodies.


----------



## dj_420 (28 March 2007)

the political situation has changed dramatically overnight in burundi. rebel forces have left the negotiation table meaning that the shakey peace deal may break down.

http://www.alertnet.org/thenews/newsdesk/L27342742.htm

i suppose the whole project was wrought with sovereign risk and as such i parked money on sidelines at a decent profit to see what pans outs.

i dont believe the risk is justified to losing a substantial sum of my capital just because rebel soldiers refuse to play nice.

so it was a great breakout opportunity and now will see how it pans out. if situation changes i will re-enter but not until then.


----------



## sydneysider (29 March 2007)

dj_420 said:


> the political situation has changed dramatically overnight in burundi. rebel forces have left the negotiation table meaning that the shakey peace deal may break down.
> 
> http://www.alertnet.org/thenews/newsdesk/L27342742.htm
> 
> ...




The group that has refused to honor the peace accord is run by Agathon Rwasa and is a faction of the FNL. They are based in NW Burundi and last year they consisted of between 1,500 to 3,000 fighters before some of them laid down their arms late last year. They support themselves by enforced taxation on the local population i.e. $0.50 to 1.50 per cow. Rwasa has a history of mass atrocities directed at every minority both inside and outside Burundi and includes the murder of English tourists. His group is complaining about the presence of Burundi police and military in his province (probably because it affects his efforts to enforce taxation, which includes violence against the local population if they do not pay). 

IF u believe that his miniscule group of militia can march across a nation of seven million people, right thru the Burundi army and attack Musongati  in force then u have been completely suckered by a group of skillful internet posters who are happily buying up cheap stock in AGY as they continue to spew this nonsense.


----------



## dj_420 (2 April 2007)

well sydneysider ive done a lot more research on this one and as such have jumped back in again. also due to ann today which hints at the fact that the JV is already a done deal.

coming off the highs from last week, able to get in at what i see is a small market cap compared to resource size.

a lot of news articles on burundi recently focusing on how burundi govt wants to encourage investment and development in the area. indian investors have been moving in and we have also seen BHP and Xstrata taking up positions in burundi.

once we get JV announced will be blue sky, the ground will be set for development as long as burundi govt can hold the truce between rebel soldiers and themselves.


like i said there is a lot of political risk on this one, BUT if you think getting a major onboard will change the situation and help development then this one does have massive upside potential.


----------



## dj_420 (2 April 2007)

i dont know if anyone knows much about these guys, here is the link for the resource estimates

http://www.mbendi.co.za/indy/ming/nkcb/af/bu/p0005.htm


----------



## sydneysider (5 April 2007)

dj_420 said:


> i dont know if anyone knows much about these guys, here is the link for the resource estimates
> 
> http://www.mbendi.co.za/indy/ming/nkcb/af/bu/p0005.htm




New 20-F filed for U.S. listing. IMHO will re-list both in Canada and U.S. Exchanges and will follow in the path of NASDAQ Sutton Resources that went meteroic (over US$12 dollars am relying on my foggy memory) about a decade ago before it was bought out by Barrack. AGY resource is massive and the price of nickel has gone thru the roof in the mean time. Technical action on AGY is text book perfect as it moves towards 50 cents under a near total absence of selling pressure. Good luck to all longs (i am enjoying this ride while located at Daytona Beach where the weather is perfect).


----------



## dj_420 (5 April 2007)

hey guys

it seems the political situation is stabilising in burundi. the FNL rebels will sit down with govt again and discuss what positions in the army FNL will assimilate when they lay down weapons.

i see this as a great move an indication that FNL are ready to at least come to come sort of conclusion. many international investors are beginning to move into resource rich burundi. the world bank has approved $165 million dollar communications infrastructure plan for burundi.

AGY meeting with govt this month could see some sort of a run before then shouls we see more developments with FNL rebels and burundi govt.

http://www.alertnet.org/thenews/newsdesk/L04482195.htm

http://www.harolddoan.com/index.php?name=News&file=article&sid=4151


----------



## Uranium (12 April 2007)

Hi,

AGY up 42 % and rising.

Dom


----------



## professor_frink (12 April 2007)

Hi, 

I've deleted a couple of posts from this morning. I've left one post so that anyone browsing knows it's having a good day, and we'll leave it at that. Can we please take the intraday commentry to the chat room or via PM, and not clutter the thread with this sort of talk.



Cheers


----------



## giss (12 April 2007)

whatever....

what is making agy go up...is there an announcement i've missed?


----------



## sydneysider (12 April 2007)

giss said:


> whatever....
> 
> what is making agy go up...is there an announcement i've missed?




Could be IMHO one of three things (1) building interest in AGY's massive ni resource equivalent to 6% of world's resource of ni (2) imminent JV terms coming (3) Canadian listing re-instated; or a mixture of all three and approaching meeting with Burundi Government in two weeks time.


----------



## Sean K (12 April 2007)

sydneysider said:


> Could be IMHO one of three things (1) building interest in AGY's massive ni resource equivalent to 6% of world's resource of ni (2) imminent JV terms coming (3) Canadian listing re-instated; or a mixture of all three and approaching meeting with Burundi Government in two weeks time.



And day traders, no?


----------



## Uranium (12 April 2007)

Hello,

It seems to me that there is a lot of interest in this stock more then normal. I can see that there are more buyers building up than sellers. Would it be a good entry point at the moment?

Dom


----------



## dj_420 (12 April 2007)

stock has been pretty tightly held also, on almost every run there will be a complete lack of sellers.

i think also the story is beginning to get some coverage. the resource in burundi has arounr 6% of the worlds known nickel. so that is a massive resource, coupled with the fact that majors would love to snap this one up on assurance of political stability.

once political stability starts to happen AGY will begin to really see benefits


----------



## sydneysider (12 April 2007)

AGY just responded to a speeding ticket issued by ASX. The interesting points about the release is that they refer to discussions with majors on a JV on their PROJECTS. How do u slice and dice Mousangati? and its surrounding deposits. The laterite ni resource is contained in a shallow open pittable zone which lies atop a sulfide zone several hundred meters thick that is laced with PGM's and terms of volume may be much larger that the 185,000,000 tonnes of ore grading 1.3% ni sitting on top. The laterites are also laced with PGM's.


----------



## dj_420 (12 April 2007)

agree sydneysider. 

it seems a thinly veiled hint at todays price movement. JV with a major. this will be key to huge success of AGY, in addition to lasting peace in burundi.

also one other point is a number of majors have been making moves into burundi with increased political stability. things are looking good for the future.


----------



## giss (12 April 2007)

the response to asx query is definately interesting! it leaves the door open to more speculation.


----------



## sydneysider (13 April 2007)

giss said:


> the response to asx query is definately interesting! it leaves the door open to more speculation.




Tenke Mining obtained the Tenke copper cobalt deposit in the Congo in the late 1990's and has had a very similar history to AGY's Mousangati with several bouts of force majure. Tenke JV'd with BHP some years ago with at 24.75% interest which was later taken over by Phelps Dodge due to very low copper prices and civil war problems. Tenke contains 7,000,000 tonnes of copper (3.01% grade) in a deposit of 235,000,000 tonnes. Ludlin Mining has just concluded a friendly sharescrip takeover of Tenke valuing their 24.75% at US$1.34 Billion. AGY is in negotiations to conclude a JV on its massive Mousangati deposit which in US$ terms is roughly three times richer per tonne of ore than Tenke (althou it is laterite nickel with cobalt and PGM credits) and its value using current spot metal prices is worth at least twice as much as Tenke for the Mousangati laterites (excluding the underlying nickel sulfides , cobalt and PGM credits which lie underneath the laterites down to 300 meters depth and extend for at least 10 kms). IF Tenke is worth US$1.34 billion for a 24.75% interest what is AGY worth if it retains a 25% interest in a JV with a deposit that is massive and worth twice as much as Tenke? Where will the stock price go?

Did u read Paul Wolfowitz's (of the World Bank) major column in this mornings Wall Street Journal about his bullishness on developments in Central and Sub-Saharan Africa and he mentioned Burundi and next door neigbor Congo?


----------



## dj_420 (13 April 2007)

another article on burundi

http://www.scoop.co.nz/stories/WO0704/S00197.htm

UN wants to see burundi fully emerge from violence and has pledged funds to help to do it.


----------



## dj_420 (13 April 2007)

AGY has bounced back from retrace very quickly today to close in the green. looking good for next week, only one and half weeks away for govt meeting, will be the deciding factor!


----------



## siempre33 (16 April 2007)

Volatility!!
I love this about Aussie stocks, esp. when a new discovery hits the boards, or newz is released that shakes the ground....

on March 16 Argosy made such a nr, sending shares from 12 1/2c to 34c....
it has since doubled to 68c.....so what's all the stir ?..

exploration could possibly begin again in Berundi on one of the major undeveloped nickel deposits in the world, IF the guv gives the go-ahead on April 23, when a team from AGY will meet with Berundi officials....

http://www.asx.com.au/asx/research/...panyName=&principalActivity=&industryGroup=NO

so how likely is it that AGY will win approval to proceed with exploration....any opinions?


----------



## dj_420 (16 April 2007)

well to begin with the proposed nickel mine will give the burundi govt 15% of earnings, so they will be very keen to get it up and running inject a massive amount of cashflow straight into their economy.

AGY will set up a company that delivers 15% of earnings to govt. with burundi govt wanting to develop infrastructure national telecommunications they will want all the foreign investment they can handle.

all AGY need to be set is a JV partner, and read into the ann about options, thinly veiled hint at what is about to be revealed IMO.


----------



## sydneysider (16 April 2007)

siempre33 said:


> Volatility!!
> I love this about Aussie stocks, esp. when a new discovery hits the boards, or newz is released that shakes the ground....
> 
> on March 16 Argosy made such a nr, sending shares from 12 1/2c to 34c....
> ...




Temke Mining went thru the same timeline with its Tenke Coppoer Cobalt deposit and bouts of force majeuer and just sold itself to Ludlin for US$1.3 billion in a share swap for a 24.75% interest. See previous post on valuations. AGY is already up another 14% on the opening on very low volume. Good luck to all longs, we have have hit a major motherlode here.


----------



## dj_420 (16 April 2007)

quite an increase this morning, have heard rumours of RIO involved on other chat sites.

we just have to wait and see what unfolds. massive resource, reduced political risk. burundi govt get 15% i think it could eventuate into a large mining house pending JV etc


----------



## Uranium (16 April 2007)

Hello,

A large amount of buyers coming in for agy , what is the news?

Dom


----------



## siempre33 (16 April 2007)

DJ420,

would strongly agree with you....
*ATPTB*
all the powers that be
are behind the development of natural resources in Berundi, as well as DRC [Congo]....World Bank, IMF, UN, Berundi guv, major mining co.s....

so I'd hazard to guess that the April 23 meeting was not called in order to say NO to AGY....

can't shut the "big boyz" out, so a JV with whomever is probably a good guess....


----------



## Uranium (17 April 2007)

Hi,

AGY had a strong day yesterday up 40% on speculation of Musongati Project. How significant is this project and what price direction will be the target. Any thoughts.

Cheers

Dom


----------



## dj_420 (17 April 2007)

well uranium its gone up around 100% in a week (or last two days of trading) so its obviously getting a big re-rating.

im not to sure how to put a dollar value on this one due to political instability in the past but ive copied sydneysider post from another site (hope you dont mind sydneysider just re-iterating what you posted)

_Ludlin Mining has just announced a friendly purchase of Tenke Mining for US$1.34 Billion (A$1.6Billion). Tenke owns 24.75% of the Tenke Copper Cobalt deposit in the Congo (not that far from AGY's Mousangati). The operator is Phelps Dodge (BHP dropped out some years ago). The deposit contains 235,000,000 tonnes of cu at 3.01% copper and .31% cobalt. 

The history of Tenke is a mirror image of what is happening at AGY. They bought Tenke in the late 1990's and it had also been drilled out just like Mousangati and was thereafter subjected to bouts of force majure as civil war raged. Recently terms for development were renegoitated and Phelps Dodge recently completed a detailed feasibility study which is available on the Tenke Mining website. 

The deposit is 235,104,000 tonnes @ 3.01% copper and .31% cobalt. Tenke negotiated JV terms with BHP who transfered to Phelps Dodge at the time of very low coppor prices. Terms were Tenke 24.75%, Phelps Dodge 57.75% and Congo Government 17.5%. We can assume that AGY may be able to get similar or slightly better terms because of much higher commodity prices, say a guesstimate of around 25%. 

Both Tenke and Mousangati are drilled but not yet developed. Tenke is a little more advanced as the majority partner has completed a new feasibility study. 

Tenke has a per tonne resource value at current prices of US$252.23 whereas Mousangati is around US$650.00 per tonne. Tenke contains 7,073,000 tonnes of copper worth US$54.5 Billion v Mousangati's 2,400,000 tonnes of nickel worth US$115 Billion plus cobalt and PGM credits plus massive exploration upside. IF Tenke's 24.75% interest is worth US$1.34 Billion then maybe AGY's "potential" 25% interest is worth double or around US$2.68 Billion / A$29.24 a share. The number is simply staggering. _


so regarding value im not sure, typically if it was in a political risk free country such as australia you could value up to around 5% of insitu value IMO, however maybe large discounts apply here due to situation. BUT having said that if we valued AGY at just 1% of insitu value ($170 billlion @ 1% = $1.7 billion) we would have a shareprice of $17.70.

NOW im not STATING the sp will get to that price im only putting a comparison figure on it and it does demonstrate the absolute monstrous size of the resource.

so we need the nod from burundi govt and also a JV partner, which given the spot price and demand for nickel isnt looking very hard to do. disc im holding for the meeting with burundi govt.


----------



## sydneysider (17 April 2007)

Yesterday's Press Release made commentary about the sulfides that underlying the massive and shallow laterite ni deposit at Mousangati (to a depth of about 40-50 meters). Several diamond drill holes were drilled thru the laterites and into the sulfides to a depth of about 300 meters, some of these holes are about 12,000 meters apart and carry disseminated PGM's over about 80-90% of the length of the entire hole. IF we try and put a number on the tonnage of the ore in the sulfides, conceptually we are probably several times the size of Voisey Bay (very speculative assessement here) on the amount of tonnage. BUT this does put a very interesting spin on AGY. The laterites carry about 6% of the world's know resource of nickel. What do the sulfides carry??


----------



## dj_420 (18 April 2007)

another good run from AGY, has gone more than 100% in last week, am suprised more people from ASF are not on it.

AGY directors have flown out to burundi now, getting a fair bit of interest on the back of AGY hoping to open up a massive nickel resource (6% of worlds nickel supply).

today has seen 15% rise with large volume again. consolidated yesterday and took off again today.


----------



## giss (18 April 2007)

AGY is having a great run because its totally undervalued. After every period of consolidation it goes on another run. The consolidation times are getting shorter which I think will mean a major rerating for AGY in the near future.


----------



## dj_420 (18 April 2007)

i agree it is undervalued, even given its location 6% of worlds known nickel supply is not something to scoff about!

this one has major miner JV written all over it. its only a process of elimination, who hasnt invested in burundi yet, who wants a huge nickel supply etc. all speculation at the moment BUT given AGY last few ann i say something big is on the cards.

AGY director wanted approval of options for AGY securing a JV partner, AGY are meeting with burundi govt and have to demonstrate that they have a willing JV partner to help develop resource. BURUNDI govt get 15% of deposit value, so it is in their best interest to develop the mine.

all looking good for major re-rating


----------



## dj_420 (18 April 2007)

up over 25% today, looking good. i want to see close above $1 and hold now.

want some good support to build at these levels, and wait for burundi govt outcome.


----------



## siempre33 (18 April 2007)

wOw! was I pleasantly surprised when I got home tonight.....
AGY up 26% on near 5 million shares....

Code  Last  % Chg  Bid  Offer  Open  High  Low  Vol  
AGY 1.110 26.14% 1.110 1.120 0.870 1.135 0.865 4,996,650


----------



## the barry (18 April 2007)

dj_420 said:


> i agree it is undervalued, even given its location 6% of worlds known nickel supply is not something to scoff about!
> 
> this one has major miner JV written all over it. its only a process of elimination, who hasnt invested in burundi yet, who wants a huge nickel supply etc. all speculation at the moment BUT given AGY last few ann i say something big is on the cards.
> 
> ...





It isn't undervalued at the moment. It has the posibility to gain the licence for the mine but that will be decided next week.The result of the meeting will be boom or bust, literally

Still at this point is a stock you should only have in what you are happy to lose. If it announces it has the rights to the mine there is still the possibility of civil war to contend with. The risks are real, which is why it is trading at these discounted levels.

Hard to put a value on it at this moment, will most likely get a real idea of it's value only after the meeting has concluded.

Good luck to all holders on this one


----------



## dj_420 (18 April 2007)

the barry said:


> It isn't undervalued at the moment. It has the posibility to gain the licence for the mine but that will be decided next week.The result of the meeting will be boom or bust, literally
> 
> Still at this point is a stock you should only have in what you are happy to lose. If it announces it has the rights to the mine there is still the possibility of civil war to contend with. The risks are real, which is why it is trading at these discounted levels.
> 
> ...




barry you have to realise that burundi govt will get a 15% stake in a potential mutli billion dollar project. for a country who is encouraging overseas investment and development would you really knock back this opportunity.

agree we have to wait till after the meeting HOWEVER it would seem that a LOT of people are taking positions before this meeting in anticipation of a positive outcome.


----------



## dj_420 (18 April 2007)

i also might add that there are guidelines that burundi govt has set and that is to have a JV partner for development of this resource. from this you could assume that AGY have a JV partner ready to go following outcome of this meeting.

you would assume that AGY would do everything possible to secure the deal and begin development.


----------



## the barry (18 April 2007)

dj_420 said:


> i also might add that there are guidelines that burundi govt has set and that is to have a JV partner for development of this resource. from this you could assume that AGY have a JV partner ready to go following outcome of this meeting.
> 
> you would assume that AGY would do everything possible to secure the deal and begin development.




Dj_420,
           The Burundi government has only been in existance for a short time & who knows what they will do with AGY's position in relation to the mine.

Assuming anything is a dangerous thing, no such thing as a sure thing in the stockmarket. 

By the way where is it stated that the governemnt has set guidlines, is that in an announcement or in an article? I'd be very interested to read this.

Is it written fact, speculation or heresay.


----------



## dj_420 (18 April 2007)

ill find it and dig it out for you


----------



## the barry (18 April 2007)

dj_420 said:


> ill find it and dig it out for you





Champion,
              Thanks Mate I'd appreciate that.


----------



## dj_420 (18 April 2007)

ok this section states whereby approval for AGY giving them mining concession will incorporate a new burundian company in which govt holds 15% interest. when AGY have finance for full mine development then the burundi govt will be reimbursed their previous expenditure of $US 8.3 million.

_Mining Convention
In 1998, Andover Resources N.L. (“Andover”), now a wholly-owned subsidiary of the Registrant,
negotiated a Mining Convention (the “Convention”) with the Government of Burundi to explore and
develop the Musongati deposits. The Convention was ratified by the Burundian National Assembly on
March 10, 1999, giving the Registrant the exclusive right to develop the Musongati deposit. The
Convention is a comprehensive agreement that awards mineral rights to the Registrant and sets out a work
program and a detailed framework for future development and operation of a mine. During the initial 3-
year exploration period, geological and engineering studies were to be completed, leading to a full project
feasibility study. The Registrant planned a staged exploration program including scoping and prefeasibility
studies that would lead to a full feasibility study. The program included drilling, ore reserve
estimations, metallurgical testing, infrastructure studies and an environmental impact study. Upon
completion of the feasibility study and a decision to proceed, the agreement provides for the awarding of a
mining title known as a Mining Concession. The term of the Mining Concession is 25 years, renewable
twice for successive periods of 10 years. If the project proceeds, a new Burundian company in which the
Burundian government will have 15% interest, will be incorporated to develop and operate the project.
Within 30 days of receipt of project finance for full mine development, the government will be
reimbursed their previous expenditure of US$8.3 million. A 5-year tax holiday will apply to the project,
followed by a 35% income tax rate. Mine equipment, materials and fuels will be tax and duty exempt.
Force majeure and internatio nal arbitration provisions normal to the industry apply._

here is states the steps that AGY have to undertake to secure the extension of mining convention

_In order for the Registrant to complete the current stage of the development of the Burundi Nickel Project
there must be a sustained return to political stability and security and it must conclude an agreement with
the government for an extension to the mining Convention following which, it must undertake various
steps, including the following:
i. secure a commitment from a financial and/or technical joint venture partner;
ii. establish the PGM potential at Musongati;
iii. complete the feasibility study;
iv. obtain any necessary approvals and permits required in order to operate the nickel processing
facility;
v. acquire the right to lands on which the nickel and cobalt processing facility and associated
infrastructure will be constructed; and
vi. create a Burundian company to be owned 85% by the Registrant and 15% by the government of
Burundi.
Once the Registrant completes these steps in its current stage of activity, and if the results of the
feasibility study are positive, the second stage in the development of the Burundi Nickel Project which the
Registrant must undertake is to obtain project financing to raise the funds necessary to be able to acquire
the land and construct the processing facilities. The third and final stage in the development of the
Burundi Nickel Project would be the construction and commissioning of the processing facilities. There
can be no assurance that any of the preceding steps will be completed to allow for the Burundi Nickel
Project to move forward.
As a result of not yet being able to conclude discussions with the government regarding an extension to
the Mining Convention, the Registrant was unable to conduct any significant activity at its Burundi
Nickel Project during 2006. Future activity depends on the Registrant obtaining an extension to the
Mining Convention and continued improvement in the security situation in Burundi._


so i am assuming that these steps COUPLED with the fact that one of the previous ann from AGY was regarding options following successful JV partner could show that AGY may have JV partnership on the table BEFORE going to the burundi govt.

i agree these are assumptions but there are some guidelines the burundi govt has implemented, which would need to be resolved to carry on development of the mine. 

what i actually see is

1) AGY need a JV partner to develop mine
2) AGY have asked shareholders to grant options for successful JV partner
3) AGY would best have these steps taken care of before meeting with burundi govt to best ensure they agree to granting the mining convention


this was taken from ann AGY annual information form on 3/4/07


----------



## ZzzzDad (19 April 2007)

Any long term investors out there on this one?  I'm looking for a short (now to 1 month) term, medium term (1 month to 6 months) and long term (6 month to 5 years) predictions for Argosy.

I'm not a trader, I'm more of a long term investor that plans to stay in it for the long haul.  ANY predictions are appreciated.  Much thanks for any input.


----------



## sydneysider (19 April 2007)

ZzzzDad said:


> Any long term investors out there on this one?  I'm looking for a short (now to 1 month) term, medium term (1 month to 6 months) and long term (6 month to 5 years) predictions for Argosy.
> 
> I'm not a trader, I'm more of a long term investor that plans to stay in it for the long haul.  ANY predictions are appreciated.  Much thanks for any input.




Please re-read the previous posts on the methodology of the valuations. Based on the size of the deposit, its location and very current valuations for monster deposits within the immediate proximity we get the following (1) Last weeks friendly share scrip buyout of Temke Mining by Ludlin gives us a "ball-park" valuation on AGY of $29.00 per share, assuming we have a JV partner and a completed BFS and that AGY retains a 25% interest in Mousangati and no further dilution (from 110 million shares which includes current issued shares and options and proposed options issue) and Burundi confirms the JV extension as happened at Temke (by the Congo Government) following several bouts of force majuere. The completion of the BFS should take about 12-24 months (2) A very short term target IMHO would put us in the $5 to $10.00 range which may come into play on confirmation of terms for JV and go-head from Burundi Government. This target comes into play within days or weeks BUT is very dependent on a major JV partner signing on. I think the issue here is not when but who gets the prize. The laterites at Mousangati contain 6% of the world's nickel (which is almost about the same size as the ni content of Voisey Bay). This does not take into account the potential ni content of the sulfide zone that extends down to at least 300 meters and is at least 12 kms long and underlies the laterites. We do know that the whole area from the surface laterites down to at least 300 meters carries disseminated PGM's (at least where there has been drilling). AGY has made reference to several holes that are 12,000 meters apart that carry disseminated PGM values over about 85-90% of their entire core. The stats on Mousangati and its potential is simply staggering. 

IMHO the re-listing of AGY in North America is a certainty and this exposure will drive it towards these valuations. No-one knows what lies ahead but assuming that the world economy maintains its current growth and we do not get an "unhinged" Middle East we have a very strong chance of getting within these numbers of somewhere between $5.00 - $29.00. IF Mousangati carries high and economic nickel values in the sulfides and the PGM values are decent and widespread then you can add an additional valuation layer. I am simply amazed at these numbers and am hold a position in AGY both for long term and trading. In the very short term ( hours to several days) i would not be surpised to see $1.50 to $2.00 as a trading range. The selling on the way up from 10 cents (amazing) to $1.13 has been extremely lite and i would expect this to continue.


----------



## ZzzzDad (19 April 2007)

Thanks for that Sydneysider.  Good to see you are (at least partly) in it for the long haul too!  I can look forward to your posts on down the road.


----------



## sydneysider (19 April 2007)

ZzzzDad said:


> Thanks for that Sydneysider.  Good to see you are (at least partly) in it for the long haul too!  I can look forward to your posts on down the road.




In 2002 between bouts of force majuere AGY re-analysed a number of diamond drill cores and re-assayed for PGM's. At Buhinda (which is the main of three mineralized zones at the principal Mousangati deposit), three holes illustrate the PGM potential in the very shallow nickel laterites. Those three holes were 36.0 meters @ 3.73 g/t, 3.0 meters @ 11.28 g/t & 10.75 meters @ 4.2 g/t of PGM's. Another hole that drilled thru the laterites and down into the sulfides to a depth of 303 meters was sampled over eight 5 meter bands of which two appear to be in the laterites 5 meters @ 3.8 g/t & 5 meters @ 3.1 g/t PGM's. The remaining six bands in the laterites averaged out at 2.93 g/t PGM's over 30 meters. AGY re-assayed this hole and more on this later.

The picture that is emerging from these widely spaced holes is that Buhinda carries a very substantial quantity of PGM's. I did some rough and very speculative and very unscientific guesstimates on the PGM potential by assuming that a PGM zone of about 35% of the thickness of the laterite zone carries an average of the above four holes and this adds up to almost 12,000,000 ounces of PGM's. Rubara was also drilled with similar results.


----------



## dj_420 (19 April 2007)

AGY increasing again today on higher volume. looking good for meeting this week, cant wait to here good news


----------



## dj_420 (19 April 2007)

smaller rise today again on good volume with  only small retrace early in the morning. 

some news on burundi the great lakes region bringing back an old economic intiative to bring development, peace and free trade between rwanda, burundi and congo.

http://www.voanews.com/english/2007-04-18-voa32.cfm


----------



## siempre33 (19 April 2007)

I've been buying ARYMF this week!
picked up a partial fill @ .70, then back in again for more @ .76.....my order @ .83 came a little late, as AGY flew right past.....I think we won't see those levels again....


----------



## ZzzzDad (20 April 2007)

You must be an American.  I bought mine under the ARYMF symbol too.  Bought 11,800 shares at 40c (U.S. dollars) a couple of weeks ago.  The other 31,700 shares I've held since 1997 when the company was known as Argosy mining.  I can't tell you how many times I almost sold for a tax loss, but decided to wait out the Burundi force majeure.  Glad I did.  Good luck with your holdings.


----------



## Stackman (20 April 2007)

Just new to this forum. Discussion on AGY certainly highlights my interest. Do you think its still worth getting into at $1.20-$1.30?


----------



## siempre33 (20 April 2007)

Stackman,
I can only tell you what I did, and that was to buy when I heard of the April 23 meeting.....depending on how bullish the newz is, the shares could possibly rise quite a lot more....based on the resources Argosy has claim to in Berundi, with a world class nickel deposit and unknown amounts of platinum group metals [it has been estimated on this thread @ 12 million ounces of pgm.s], the shares could be considered undervalued at current quotes.....the political risk has been what is holding AGY back....there still is risk, but I would judge that at least some of that risk has been removed..... 

not investment advice


----------



## Sean K (20 April 2007)

Stackman said:


> Just new to this forum. Discussion on AGY certainly highlights my interest. Do you think its still worth getting into at $1.20-$1.30?






siempre33 said:


> Stackman,
> I can only tell you what I did, and that was to *buy* when I heard of the April 23 meeting.....not investment advice




Stackman, Please note that no one on the forum can give you advice to buy or sell anything, and you should not try to solicit such either. Instead, please talk more about value or potential. And note, all price target valuations must come with detailed analysis. Siempre, please don't tell anyone to buy anything, although I do note you have qualified your statement with 'not investment advice'. Thanks.


----------



## siempre33 (20 April 2007)

ZzzzDad,
thanx for the good wishes.....
discovering this chat site has been quite a boon to my pf.....I no sooner find one undervalued looking situation, than others pop up....it's almost too good to be true.....but experience tells me the easy gains can't last forever, so my time horizon is fairly short-term, at least at this point....


----------



## smartcard2 (20 April 2007)

Long time holder here also from van,canada ... had high hopes when this when first bought this in ..... glad to see mgmt was able to hold on ...


----------



## ZzzzDad (20 April 2007)

Yeah, Actually, looking back at my records, I bought this in 1996.  It was being hyped by National Securities.  Before I knew it though, the stock dropped like a rock because of the Bre-X scandal.  All small gold mining stocks took a dive.  I even held on during the New Caledonia fiasco.  Well, I'm stubborn, I don't want to take a loss in this stock.  This time is different though, I do believe.  Fingers crossed anyway.  This is the one we've been waiting for!!


----------



## dj_420 (20 April 2007)

another article on the great lakes region

it seems that there is a huge effort going into developing the great lakes region and creating some economic and political stability.

IMO the burundi will want to see this resource get developed due to a major influx of money been directed to govt from project. the 15% in the project will obviously help with long-term development plans and infrastructure.

http://english.people.com.cn/200704/20/eng20070420_368157.html


----------



## sydneysider (20 April 2007)

siempre33 said:


> ZzzzDad,
> thanx for the good wishes.....
> discovering this chat site has been quite a boon to my pf.....I no sooner find one undervalued looking situation, than others pop up....it's almost too good to be true.....but experience tells me the easy gains can't last forever, so my time horizon is fairly short-term, at least at this point....




Good luck to u siempre. I am based out of Atlanta. Also traded AGY when they were doing the Norilsk nickel deal in New Caledonia some years ago.


----------



## smartcard2 (20 April 2007)

AGY was originally Calliope back in 1996 if my memory is working ...


----------



## ZzzzDad (20 April 2007)

Argosy mining and Calliope merged sometime back then.  And then later, they merged with Andover.  Then, they did some kind of reverse .6 stock split.  My shares went from 50,000 plus to 31,700.  All a little fuzzy to me now.


----------



## smartcard2 (20 April 2007)

When the stock started to get active a couple of months ago .. i'm kicking myself for not picking some up at 6 cents..


----------



## dj_420 (23 April 2007)

well has undergone massive re-rating, burundi govt meeting set for today, should hear news on this in the next 2-3 days IMO.

would like to see the 1.20 area hold well and build up a new base of support.


----------



## the barry (23 April 2007)

dj_420 said:


> well has undergone massive re-rating, burundi govt meeting set for today, should hear news on this in the next 2-3 days IMO.
> 
> would like to see the 1.20 area hold well and build up a new base of support.




I would think we wil know by tomorrow morning. Make or break for this company, either way current prices won't be seen again for a long time.


----------



## the barry (23 April 2007)

I was wrong. Just gone into a trading halt. Hopefully let the good times rol


----------



## dj_420 (23 April 2007)

well in trading halt now so those who are in are in!

open again thurs morning, so obviously we will have burundi govt meeting when we re-open


----------



## siempre33 (23 April 2007)

Buy orders will be lined up from here to Bujumbura when AGY resumes....


----------



## UPKA (23 April 2007)

siempre33 said:


> Buy orders will be lined up from here to Bujumbura when AGY resumes....




Thats only the case if the meeting does go thru as planned (successful). Otherwise I can see most of the current value being wiped out.


----------



## siempre33 (23 April 2007)

Originally Posted by siempre33  
Buy orders will be lined up from here to Bujumbura when AGY resumes.... 

UPKA replied:
"Thats only the case if the meeting does go thru as planned (successful). Otherwise I can see most of the current value being wiped out."

oh, I think the co. has a pretty good idea of what's going on, since they have already made financial provision for a JV partner at the Mousangati project....as I've noted before, 
*ATPTB*
*all the powers that be* are wishing us well, as it were.....
the IMF, World Bank, UN, major mining co.s....all want to see mining projects progressing in Burundi...


----------



## UPKA (23 April 2007)

siempre33 said:


> Originally Posted by siempre33
> Buy orders will be lined up from here to Bujumbura when AGY resumes....
> 
> UPKA replied:
> ...





I certainly hope that the meeting will turn out positive, as I hold AGY shares myself, so fingers n toes crossed for tomorrow's news. 

Just want to get an opinion from u guys, say if the deal does go thru, and the price shoots up, should I hold or sell? 
I'm leaning towards sell, because I dont see a long term future for the mine, due to lack of infrastracture and political stablility in the region, so the price is purely based on speculation and wont last. But again I'm all new to trading, most of it prob dont even make sense to you guys.


----------



## ZzzzDad (23 April 2007)

My thinking is that we will see a good spike up if good news comes.  Then reality will set in.  What I mean is that then a BFS (Bankable feasibility study) will be commissioned, which (according to others) will take 1 to 2 years.  That would be the next big spike (if it comes back positive).

I might sell half after the expected spike, and hold the rest for the long long term.  Depends on what is announced I guess.


----------



## sydneysider (23 April 2007)

siempre33 said:


> Buy orders will be lined up from here to Bujumbura when AGY resumes....




IMHO the trading halt was put in place to stop rampant speculation until a Press Release is made and my position is that news will be very positive and that the Mousangati project will be allowed to proceed with allowances made to the timeline bought about by the number of bouts of force majuere. 

IF we assume that the news is bad then i am sure that there would be NO song and dance about a meeting. The death of the project would have already been announced and AGY would still be ticking over at ten cents. The fact that the stock was soaring indicates to me that there has been a leakage of information. This could be very possible as discussions are underway with a significant number of corporate players and Government (Burundi) officials.


----------



## the barry (23 April 2007)

UPKA said:


> I certainly hope that the meeting will turn out positive, as I hold AGY shares myself, so fingers n toes crossed for tomorrow's news.
> 
> Just want to get an opinion from u guys, say if the deal does go thru, and the price shoots up, should I hold or sell?
> I'm leaning towards sell, because I dont see a long term future for the mine, due to lack of infrastracture and political stablility in the region, so the price is purely based on speculation and wont last. But again I'm all new to trading, most of it prob dont even make sense to you guys.




You have to remember that the company holds 6 percent of the worlds nickel in the ground. An example of the potential of this stock is fmg. Have a look at there chart and you will have an idea what is possible. Having said that there is no gaureentee that even if this meeting is a success that they will ever get to production. If it was to spike on the announcement my advice would be to, depending on what price you got in, take enough profit out to cover your initial investment and then sit back and see what happens. That way if the price goes through the roof you are exposed to it and if it goes the wrong way you have lost none of your intial investment.


----------



## siempre33 (24 April 2007)

the barry said...
"..there is no gaureentee that even if this meeting is a success that they will ever get to production."

in fact I'll go on record as saying....they never will go to production.....a buyout/takeover may, in fact, happen sooner rather than later....the majors can get Argosy on-the-cheap now, compared to what it would cost them later..


----------



## dj_420 (24 April 2007)

siempre33 said:


> the barry said...
> "..there is no gaureentee that even if this meeting is a success that they will ever get to production."
> 
> in fact I'll go on record as saying....they never will go to production.....a buyout/takeover may, in fact, happen sooner rather than later....the majors can get Argosy on-the-cheap now, compared to what it would cost them later..




i agree with this one. pending a positive outcome from burundi govt the majors will be all over this one. 

let me ask you this what major would not want 6% of the worlds nickel supply?

additionally AGY may be able to see production retaining a 25% interest, then they will be able to sit on sidelines and watch production at least  


everyone has to remember all the majors signed disclosure deals with AGY around 3 - 4 years ago, so now that the price of nickel is through the roof i would EXPECT huge amount of interest.


----------



## sydneysider (24 April 2007)

siempre33 said:


> the barry said...
> "..there is no gaureentee that even if this meeting is a success that they will ever get to production."
> 
> in fact I'll go on record as saying....they never will go to production.....a buyout/takeover may, in fact, happen sooner rather than later....the majors can get Argosy on-the-cheap now, compared to what it would cost them later..




There is a probability that AGY may not sign a JV deal right away but proceed with their own BFS on both the lateritic nickel AND PGM potential at Mousangati. The cost of the BFS could be covered by re-listing in North America accompanied with a share placement probably at much higher prices than the current trading level. That would really put the stock into "takeover play". Based on buyout valuation for Temke set two weeks ago the stock price could really fly (please see my earlier posting on Temke valuation).


----------



## UPKA (24 April 2007)

Morning lads, has anyone got any updates on how the meeting went? been to the Burundi Government website, everything is in french, and it seems that the last update was in 2004  , cant wait till the thursday's announcement.


----------



## dj_420 (24 April 2007)

i just keep checking google news for any updates.

nothing yet will keep everyone posted


----------



## monaliza (25 April 2007)

dj_420 said:


> i just keep checking google news for any updates.
> 
> nothing yet will keep everyone posted



Any news so far from Africa about *AGY*?


----------



## UPKA (25 April 2007)

monaliza said:


> Any news so far from Africa about *AGY*?




I'm guessing due to the locality of the country and non-existent telecom network, they have no way of getting the good news out


----------



## dj_420 (25 April 2007)

there will be an ann to market in the morning.

when they had announced the meeting originally that was all over the press so a positive ann tommorrow will generate a huge amount of interest as i bet there is a lot of money on sidelines watching for this outcome.

heres to hopefully a great thursday!


----------



## the barry (26 April 2007)

Announcement is out, really here nor there really. Expect the share price to take a hit though this morning. It seems that there is a long way to go before the outcome is known on this one.


----------



## smartcard2 (26 April 2007)

At least they are talking ...


----------



## dj_420 (26 April 2007)

the barry said:


> Announcement is out, really here nor there really. Expect the share price to take a hit though this morning. It seems that there is a long way to go before the outcome is known on this one.




the barry AGY are re-opening their office in burundi hardly seems like bad news to me, i dont know why the sp would take a hit, it seems to me a thinly veiled hint that government OBVIOUSLY want the mine developed.

from ann:

_Argosy is pleased with the discussions, which addressed the best way forward to complete
exploration and feasibility studies on the deposit._

which to me indicates that AGY will be moving forward in the right direction.


----------



## UPKA (26 April 2007)

The sp has taken a hit today, looks like its gonna be a slow process, good opportunity to buy in again?
The statement released on ASX was rather brief, i would've liked more details on it tho...


----------



## monaliza (26 April 2007)

Ann. indicate that [Argosy is pleased with the discussions, which addressed the best way forward to complete
exploration and feasibility studies on the deposit.]
So they are in thier way,no one get the approval from 1st meeting.
So I do not know why they ask for trading halt.


----------



## UPKA (26 April 2007)

ok.. im getting a bit confused now, so they went to the meeting, didn't get the approval, but asked by the government to provide more details, so more explorations need to be done?


----------



## dj_420 (26 April 2007)

seems that they are still talking to govt to figure out best way to proceed with the mine. AGY sp probably ran ahead of itself last week and a retracement was prob on the cards.

however for the future it does look good, a panick selldown this morning and we now just have to await for more details of the meeting.


----------



## the barry (26 April 2007)

dj_420 said:


> seems that they are still talking to govt to figure out best way to proceed with the mine. AGY sp probably ran ahead of itself last week and a retracement was prob on the cards.
> 
> however for the future it does look good, a panick selldown this morning and we now just have to await for more details of the meeting.




The market doesn't like uncertainty, that is what has caused the sell down this morning. Has bounced back well after initial sell down and if it could consolidate around the 95 cent mark would be great. Reading the announcement i would think it will take a couple of months before we really know where they are at. I still hold, still think things look positive.


----------



## noo (26 April 2007)

If you read anns today.....

(Discussions remain ongoing and at this stage it would be premature to speculate on the outcome.)

Government is not deciding yet.

(Andover is now taking steps to re-open its office in Bujumbura, the Burundian capital. This will
be an important move for Andover in re-building its presence within Burundi.)

Government is saying "You want to do business with us but you don't even have an office in our country yet"
"So,open an office and we'll talk"

How long we have to wait to receive the proper progress from Burundi Government?


----------



## UPKA (26 April 2007)

I think the market is over reacting to the result of the meeting, the share dived 35% today!! Hopefully it'll recover over time.


----------



## Ruprect (26 April 2007)

I dont know, this might take some time to settle. Much of the push over $1 was based on the expectation of a positive announcement. Short termers have been dumping, they dont want to wait it out. Dont forget that the AGY was half its current price just a couple of weeks back, and a lot less than that at the start of the year.

The annoucement today wasnt terribly negative, but it wasnt what the market was wanting. 

If the discussions prove favorable over the coming weeks, it will rocket again.


----------



## the barry (26 April 2007)

dj_420 said:


> the barry AGY are re-opening their office in burundi hardly seems like bad news to me, i dont know why the sp would take a hit, it seems to me a thinly veiled hint that government OBVIOUSLY want the mine developed.
> 
> from ann:
> 
> ...




There is no mention though of them playing any part in the completing of the exploration & feasibility study.The market was looking for confirmation of their involvement. Looking for a confirmation from the Burrundi government that Andover's Mininig Convention is still ok

Opening the office seems positive but again no guaruntees. It is impossible to read anything inot the announcement, The announcment is totally ambiguous. 

It's a worrying announcement for mine, I would have hoped that they would have been able to announce something a little more concrete than todays content


----------



## sydneysider (27 April 2007)

dj_420 said:


> the barry AGY are re-opening their office in burundi hardly seems like bad news to me, i dont know why the sp would take a hit, it seems to me a thinly veiled hint that government OBVIOUSLY want the mine developed.
> 
> from ann:
> 
> ...




IMHO there is a very definite plan in place here and that is to get the BEST deal for the shareholders of AGY. AGY can do a deal with a major any time they want BUT IF they complete a drilling program on the Mousangati laterites for PGM's and re-confirm the grades on the ni,co & cu values they can proceed to a fully independently verified JORC compliant resource. IF they have such a document the value of the resource increases dramatically. AT this stage they can open the bidding for a JV in about three to six months time. The money for the drill program of about 400 very shallow holes (50 meters deep or thereabouts) and a small number of deep diamond holes, say 10-20 holes to 300-400 meters can be funded by relisting the shares in North America and raising C$5,000,000.


----------



## ZzzzDad (27 April 2007)

Sydney, if they re-list the shares here in North America, wouldn't that mean creating more shares outstanding?  Right now, with director's, etc. options included there are about 110 million shares outstanding.  Am I understanding that they would have to add the number of shares to raise that money?

Although I'm disappointed with the market reaction of yesterday, I'm still holding all my shares for the long haul.  Let's just hope their plan works in all our best interests.


----------



## sydneysider (27 April 2007)

ZzzzDad said:


> Sydney, if they re-list the shares here in North America, wouldn't that mean creating more shares outstanding?  Right now, with director's, etc. options included there are about 110 million shares outstanding.  Am I understanding that they would have to add the number of shares to raise that money?
> 
> Although I'm disappointed with the market reaction of yesterday, I'm still holding all my shares for the long haul.  Let's just hope their plan works in all our best interests.




North American markets love "big picture" stocks. The BFS could be updated with JORC compliant resources numbers very quickly for probably a few million dollars so the issue of shares would be very small AND give AGY a shot to develop its PGM project as a first stage leading to the development of the lateritic ni project.


----------



## the barry (27 April 2007)

sydneysider said:


> North American markets love "big picture" stocks. The BFS could be updated with JORC compliant resources numbers very quickly for probably a few million dollars so the issue of shares would be very small AND give AGY a shot to develop its PGM project as a first stage leading to the development of the lateritic ni project.




Sydneysider,
                  Do you think at this stage the existing mining convention still stands? As in the anouncement it uses the words" held by it's wholly owned subsiduary Andover resources as pursuant to an existing Mining convention." 

When do you think we might here whether they can proceed or not, Why at this stagge do you think that they can't give an indication. Do you think it was positive/negative that another meeting wasn't set?

It has to be positive that they are reopening their offices bujumbara, what are your thoguhts?

Do you think the risks left are more civil instability & the chance the Burundi governemtn will reject their existing mining convention giving them no rights to the deposit? After all it was an earlier governemnt as well
Thanks mate from a nervous holder.


----------



## UPKA (27 April 2007)

I went into this stock fully prepared fo scenarios like this, so im prepared to lose out. I think this is going to be a tough negotiation round. The Burundi knows that they r sitting on a "gold" mine, I'm sure that they will wait till more is offered on the table before they decide on anything. I just hope they dont drag it on for too long, for all we know the president can be assasinated again and there could be another civil war in a few mths time.


----------



## sydneysider (27 April 2007)

the barry said:


> Sydneysider,
> Do you think at this stage the existing mining convention still stands? As in the anouncement it uses the words" held by it's wholly owned subsiduary Andover resources as pursuant to an existing Mining convention."
> 
> When do you think we might here whether they can proceed or not, Why at this stagge do you think that they can't give an indication. Do you think it was positive/negative that another meeting wasn't set?
> ...




IF the mining convention and agreement between AGY's wholly owned subsidairy Andover was nullified by AGY's conduct then we would have been told in clear and unambiguous language in a Press Release to the ASX. This has not happened. There is a mirror image situation nearby in the Congo held by Temke Mining which was ratified and is proceeding with Phelps Dodge (please see my earlier post for a full explanation). My reading of the political situation is that Burundi is returning to more civil times and the economy has ben growing for the last couple of years. There are plenty of news stories to back this view up along with many stories about efforts that have been underway to rebuild the infrastructure of this very poor nation. Many of the stories also stress the efforts of the current government to move the nation into a free and open market economy and efforts to stimulate growth in the mining sector. IF the government reneged on their contract with Argosy they would be pouring cold water on any new development of their mining sector and funding for projects would dry up very quickly.  

IMHO the whole situation remains very positive, the stock price and technicals still look very positive to me and that includes yesterday's violent retrace. There is a certain amount of trading in the stock where manipulators are still trying to "scare" sellers out of the stock but i do not think there are many shares left to sell as my feeling is that the stock is very tightly held. I bought more both yesterday and this morning but am actively trading AGY to build up my core longer term holding.


----------



## sydneysider (3 May 2007)

We have had a massive and swift retrace from the hi of $1.34 followed by a "triple bottom" that attempted and failed to penetrate below 65. Now we are pushing towards 75 with a very decent possibility of running higher from these levels. Sellers seem far and few between sales to-day and there have been some very sizeable orders placed into the market this morning that remain unfilled. They may be indicating the presence of predators. My comments may be considered very speculative. Please do your own research.


----------



## dj_420 (3 May 2007)

sydneysider said:


> We have had a massive and swift retrace from the hi of $1.34 followed by a "triple bottom" that attempted and failed to penetrate below 65. Now we are pushing towards 75 with a very decent possibility of running higher from these levels. Sellers seem far and few between sales to-day and there have been some very sizeable orders placed into the market this morning that remain unfilled. They may be indicating the presence of predators. My comments may be considered very speculative. Please do your own research.




yes it is very speculative at the moment with rumours that AGY mining convention has lapsed and were seeking to have it re-instated by burundi govt. if it really came down to it and convention was lapsed govt could actually have control over resource and put resource up to bid by tender.

not sure where this one will go, on sidelines at moment watching as many people been burnt already.


----------



## sydneysider (3 May 2007)

dj_420 said:


> yes it is very speculative at the moment with rumours that AGY mining convention has lapsed and were seeking to have it re-instated by burundi govt. if it really came down to it and convention was lapsed govt could actually have control over resource and put resource up to bid by tender.
> 
> not sure where this one will go, on sidelines at moment watching as many people been burnt already.




I think many people are misreading the situation. IF the Mining Convention was at an end then we would have been told that it is ended. My understanding is that it is OK and that AGY are proceeding to complete negotiations both with the Burundi government and with potential JV partners (which is exactly what their PR says). IMHO these things take time to execute with minor delays along the way. IF the deal was off the sp would have collapsed in a complete heap back from whence it came. It has not. In fact there seems to be a number of buyers circling the stock and eyeing about 330,000 shares posted for sale between 74.5 and 80. It will be interesting to see how long it takes before someone rushes forward to scoop them up.


----------



## the barry (3 May 2007)

sydneysider said:


> I think many people are misreading the situation. IF the Mining Convention was at an end then we would have been told that it is ended. My understanding is that it is OK and that AGY are proceeding to complete negotiations both with the Burundi government and with potential JV partners (which is exactly what their PR says). IMHO these things take time to execute with minor delays along the way. IF the deal was off the sp would have collapsed in a complete heap back from whence it came. It has not. In fact there seems to be a number of buyers circling the stock and eyeing about 330,000 shares posted for sale between 74.5 and 80. It will be interesting to see how long it takes before someone rushes forward to scoop them up.




Would AGY have an obligation to inform the market by announcement that the mining convention had lapsed?


----------



## UPKA (3 May 2007)

the barry said:


> Would AGY have an obligation to inform the market by announcement that the mining convention had lapsed?




I would think so as it is a price sensitive information, one of the condition to be listed as a public company is that it has to be transparent. I'm sure they'll get ASIC sniffing up their **** if they r hiding or holding information from investors.


----------



## the barry (3 May 2007)

UPKA said:


> I would think so as it is a price sensitive information, one of the condition to be listed as a public company is that it has to be transparent. I'm sure they'll get ASIC sniffing up their **** if they r hiding or holding information from investors.




This is an extract from their announcement in relation to the Musongati Nickel deposit:

"During this trip, Argosy representatives met with senior members of the Burundian government in relation to the Musongati nickel deposit, held by its wholly-owned subsidiary Andover Resources pursuant to an existing Mining Convention."

I ask about the mining convention as there are a lot of rumours floating around that the Mining convention has expired & that the mine will go out to tender.If it is the case that the mining convention has expired it would be very devious indeed if they(AGY) didn't disclose this infomation. Surely this whole issue will come down to wehter the Mining Convention still stands, which according to the statement above given to the ASX on the 26th of April they still do.

It's an interesting buy/sell chart at the moment, a few people must be confident that the outcome in regards to the Musongati Nickel deposit will be positive. 2 buyers want 460,000 between them at .72 cents


----------



## the barry (3 May 2007)

Taken from the Annual Infomation night on 3/4/07:

As a result of not yet being able to conclude discussions with the government regarding an extension to the Mining Convention, the Registrant was unable to conduct any significant activity at its Burundi Nickel Project during 2006. *Future activity depends on the Registrant obtaining an extension to the Mining Convention and continued improvement in the security situation in Burundi*.

I understand that with a new governemnt coming in in 2005(?) that they would possibley need to get reassurance & the ok to go ahead with developiing the musongati mine, it seems a bit worrying though that the mining convention seemingly has a limited time line that has run out.

The highlighted section suggests that without an extension being granted
to the existing mining convention then the origional convention is useless & AGY has no more right to the Musongati mine than anyone else?

Thoughts....


----------



## UPKA (3 May 2007)

That is a worrying sign, is there a way of requesting this information? I'm sure that the company will disclose this information if we all request it?


----------



## the barry (3 May 2007)

UPKA said:


> That is a worrying sign, is there a way of requesting this information? I'm sure that the company will disclose this information if we all request it?




Peter H Lloyd, Chief Executive Officer or  

Malcolm K Smartt, Company Secretary

Argosy Minerals Inc
Level 2, Suite 10
57 Labouchere Road
South Perth, WA, 6151 Australia
Telephone: 61-8-9474-4178

Email: peter.lloydl@argosyminerals.com.au


Email: mal.smartt@argosyminerals.com.au

I'll be trying to email them to obtain this infomation. If the Mining convention is still intact i will hold, if it isn't i will get out as i won't be comfortable holding on nothing more than a wing and a prayer. If i get a response i will post it, please do the same


----------



## dj_420 (3 May 2007)

what it sounds like is when RIO temporarily lost shovelanna from a lapsed lease.

it was good while it lasted but it sounds like its going pear shaped now. they have stated that a mining convention does _exist_ but not whether or not it is _current_. i would suggest that this may be a play on words by the company.

the bad thing is that if the convention has expired and they are negotiating to get it extended there could be more than a few burnt fingers.

disc: i was on this one from 39 cents and jumped off at 79 cents. missed out on some big profits when it dropped from highs of 1.34 but still managed to double my money (just).

i was under the impression that this the resource was under AGY control and political stability had returned. now it may seem otherwise.


----------



## giss (4 May 2007)

Nothing is certain in these countries & all the speculation in the world is  not going to shed any light. The only truths are that there is a huge deposit of nickel & the country is dirt poor. I am staying positive. Everyone wants to make money. This country's government especially.


----------



## sting (4 May 2007)

What I'm starting to worry about is one of the bigger concerns have gotten to the new government offering a better deal not to renew AGY agreement. Remeber we are talking a lot of money here.

Ive already lost 25% ( brought at 0.94) do i bail or hold that is the million dollar question


----------



## sydneysider (4 May 2007)

UPKA said:


> That is a worrying sign, is there a way of requesting this information? I'm sure that the company will disclose this information if we all request it?




While all of these nasty bearish rumors are floating around, someone is quitely buying up hundreds of thousands of shares each day in the hi 60's and up to the mid 70's going on for five days. IF the rumors were not out on the various chat sites then where would the price be? Very convenient way of scaring away a lot of small day traders and scaring out holders.


----------



## the barry (4 May 2007)

sydneysider said:


> While all of these nasty bearish rumors are floating around, someone is quitely buying up hundreds of thousands of shares each day in the hi 60's and up to the mid 70's going on for five days. IF the rumors were not out on the various chat sites then where would the price be? Very convenient way of scaring away a lot of small day traders and scaring out holders.




Sydneysider, THEY ARN'T NASTY RUMOURS THEY ARE FACT, HERE IS THE PROOF TAKEN FROM AGY's annual report released on the 27th of the 4th. i HAVE HIGHLIGHTED WHERE AGY ADMITS THE MINING CONVENTION HAS LAPSED & NEEDS A CONTINUATION TO CONTINUE WITH THE PROJECT.

"The Burundi Nickel Project, acquired in 1999 pursuant to a Mining Convention between the Corporation’s wholly subsidiary Andover Resources NL  “Andover”) and the government of Burundi, has been subject to force majeure due to political instability in Burundi. *In May 2005 the Corporation lifted force majeure and initiated discussion with the Ministry of Mines with a view to securing a continuation of the Mining Convention. To date no continuation has been secured."*


Then this from the announcement on the musongati project released 26th/4th

"Argosy Minerals Inc. previously announced an important visit to Burundi with a delegation of corporate and technical advisers. During this trip, Argosy representatives met with senior members of the Burundian government in relation to the Musongati nickel deposit, *held by its wholly-owned subsidiary Andover Resources pursuant to an existing Mining Convention."*

I think it's rather dodgy that in an obscure passage in the annual report tucked away on page 4 of 32 of the annual report that discloses that AGY needs a continuation of the mining convention to continue with the Musongati mine. Then in the releases regaring Musongati that are 1 page release there is no mention that they need a continuation. I would go as far as to suggest that AGY is deliberatley misleading unsophiticated investors & the market in general. Anyone that read the market releases on the Musongati project would beleive that the mining convention was still in order & they were talking to the Burrundi Government about gettting it started again, when in truth they are asking if they can get it started again. BIG Difference

If you read the chairmans address from the annual report this is the main passage from it regarding Musongati.

"In May, 2005 the company lifted Force Majeure in respect of the nickel laterite project at Musongati in Burundi. During 2005 and 2006 progress was slow but in recent times we have arranged a meeting with the Government of Burundi to be held in April to discuss going forward with the Convention. During the last twelve months, approaches have been received from a number of major resource companies in relation to the Project. When we originally entered into the Convention over the Musongati Project the price of nickel was US$5,000 to US$6,000 per ton and today the price of nickel is
US$44,500 per ton so that the economics relating to the Project are potentially more favourable. Advancement of the Musongati Project will require a substantial drilling program metallurgical test work, pre-feasibility and feasibility studies."

*After such a long period of time Argosy looks forward to commencing these activities.*


Again states that they are looking forward to starting it, omitting whether in fact they can start it again. I think it's careless at best, negligent at worst. 

I would ask why there is no mention in the releases relating directly to the Musongati projects that it would seem that the mining convention has expired or at best if it hasn't lapsed they need to be granted a continuation to move forward into a PFS & FS & finally BFS. 

The conversations have been going on since 2005, I don't think small day traders are getting scared away by message board rumours. Fact is that AGY's mining convention has expired and as to now they havn't got a continuation of the mining convention. Holding this is as big a gamble as putting your money on red at the casino.

Simple fact is Continuation granted, the stock is worth dollars( how many dollars will be determined by jv partner & other factors) continuation not granted, the stock is worth sub 10 cents. Opening the office in Burrundi is a positive sign but dosn't mean much other than hope.

I am interested to hear your thoughts on the mining convention held by Andover and what it means to AGY. It seems that without a grant of continuation given by the Burrundi governemnt, that it isn't worth the paper it's written on.

Balls of steel is what you need on this one.


----------



## UPKA (7 May 2007)

Thanks Barry, there is still a strong interest in the stock, alot of buyers at the lower 70c, and high 60c mark. personally i dont like the future of this stock, prob time to cut my losses n pull it out. this company is js too small to handle  such a mine, even with JVs they'll still need to raise alot of capital, unless they can somehow convince the big boys to work with them. with the mining convention expiring or expired, the mine will only go to the highest bidder, and i dont think its gonna be Argosy.


----------



## YELNATS (9 May 2007)

dj_420 said:


> it was good while it lasted but it sounds like its going pear shaped now. they have stated that a mining convention does _exist_ but not whether or not it is _current_. i would suggest that this may be a play on words by the company.




Don't they have a duty of disclosure to let their shareholders and the market know fully and unambiguously whether they still have a current agreement? Otherwise aren't they in breach of their ASX listing privileges?

I must say I bought into this share a couple of weeks ago on the understanding they had secure rights to the resource.


----------



## sting (10 May 2007)

Exract from yesterdays Burundi Newspaper...

 Burundi police wielding batons dispersed about 200 protesters demonstrating outside the High Court on Wednesday in support of a former ruling party chairman accused of trying to destabilise the central African country. At least two people were hurt as Hussein Radjabu appeared before prosecutors. He denies charges he was working against the government, which he says were fabricated by intelligence services. Radjabu's lawyer, Prosper Niyoyankana, told Reuters his client listened to evidence from two prosecution witnesses during the closed-door session, but gave no other details.

The way these politicians are in these countries dont be surprised if another civil uprising occurs then where will we stand maybe with a different government either more or less in favour of AGY????

I hold AGY and at present am holding a 25% loss We need some clarification on where they stand

Semper Ubi Sub Ubi


----------



## ZzzzDad (10 May 2007)

Actually, that article is quite reassuring.  This was a radical Hutu, being put away by a majority Hutu government.  Sounds like they handled the situation to me.  Looks like the government passed the test and trying to keep the government stable.

I will continue to hold, and have in fact added during the recent weakness.  So far, the stock is looking relatively good today.

Also, can you provide a link to this Burundi Newspaper?  I didn't know they had an online newspaper.  If they do, that is a good sign that the country is starting to modernize.


----------



## sting (10 May 2007)

Thanks for that... I am determined to hold this stock but am not convinced enough to buy more. what I have if I lost it all I can handle so ill hold on to what I have an wait it out. below is the link to the news service. I have also included a link to a much wider sth african service that has a specific mining section as well as other area's

Burundi...... http://www.burundirealite.org/news.cfm?LANG=E

Sth Africa....... http://allafrica.com/mining/

I hope these will be of assistance to members not only following this share but others as well.

If a moderator would copy and paste them to a more general area it would be appreciated

semper ubi sub ubi


----------



## sydneysider (11 May 2007)

sting said:


> Thanks for that... I am determined to hold this stock but am not convinced enough to buy more. what I have if I lost it all I can handle so ill hold on to what I have an wait it out. below is the link to the news service. I have also included a link to a much wider sth african service that has a specific mining section as well as other area's
> 
> Burundi...... http://www.burundirealite.org/news.cfm?LANG=E
> 
> ...




Everyone needs to chill the ill informed commentary on AGY. Yesterday i pulled the trading records on AGY for the last month. U might have heard of some of the brokers who are trading in AGY. The largest traders were (in order) were UBS, GB Were, Macquarie Institutional, Credit Suisse, Citigroup, Deutshe, Merrill Lynch, ABN Ambro, JP Morgan, Commonwealth, Morgan Stanley. Not one small broker in the list! I guess they must not be listening to a lot of ill informed commentary flying around the web.


----------



## sting (11 May 2007)

Seems to be coming back with a vengance and with no ann I just hope that it will be sustainable. Why didnt I listen to others an buy more when they were 30 cents cheaper.... ow well we live an learn..


----------



## UPKA (11 May 2007)

sting said:


> Seems to be coming back with a vengance and with no ann I just hope that it will be sustainable. Why didnt I listen to others an buy more when they were 30 cents cheaper.... ow well we live an learn..




I think its another buy frenzy due to the low sp the last few days, i dont expect the negotiation to resume for few more mths. I dont like this stock now, i think i'll die young js watching the sp jumping up n down like a rabbit.


----------



## Ruprect (11 May 2007)

UPKA said:


> I think its another buy frenzy due to the low sp the last few days, i dont expect the negotiation to resume for few more mths. I dont like this stock now, i think i'll die young js watching the sp jumping up n down like a rabbit.




True, if there isnt an announcement, then a speeding ticket monday, followed by a pullback.

But, if you have the courage, there is def money to be made on the volatility while it lasts.


----------



## the barry (11 May 2007)

Ruprect said:


> True, if there isnt an announcement, then a speeding ticket monday, followed by a pullback.
> 
> But, if you have the courage, there is def money to be made on the volatility while it lasts.




Posted the same thoughts on another board, all the trades today have been mainly under the 5 grand mark. So no serious buying up going on. Am just going to hold this for the long term and see how it plays out.


----------



## YELNATS (11 May 2007)

the barry said:


> Posted the same thoughts on another board, all the trades today have been mainly under the 5 grand mark. So no serious buying up going on. Am just going to hold this for the long term and see how it plays out.




A total of 4.4 million shares traded today at $3.9 million. Must have been lots and lots of smallish trades or some larger ones late in the afternoon, I guess. regards YN.


----------



## the barry (11 May 2007)

YELNATS said:


> A total of 4.4 million shares traded today at $3.9 million. Must have been lots and lots of smallish trades or some larger ones late in the afternoon, I guess. regards YN.




Yelnats, check out http://stocknessmonster.com/

You'll see that there isn't 1 major parcel bought. If an institution or potential buyer is grabbing stock then they are doing a good job of it.

With 100 million stocks on offer & the potential value of the deposits people don't want to miss out. It goes up a little and the investors follow like sheep.

Without an announcement she'll retract again...However you wouldn't want be caught out not holding them if they put out an announcement that they are going ahead with the develpopment of the musongati mine.


----------



## YELNATS (11 May 2007)

the barry said:


> Yelnats, check out http://stocknessmonster.com/
> You'll see that there isn't 1 major parcel bought. If an institution or potential buyer is grabbing stock then they are doing a good job of it.



the barry, thanks for the link, very interesting, will use in future. 692 trades, for 233 parcels, average parcel value of $17k. regards YN.


----------



## sting (14 May 2007)

So much for the peace process... this is an extract from the Burundi Newspaper...

BUJUMBURA, 2007-05-12  - A South African mediator arrived in Bujumbura on Saturday to push forward a stalled peace process between the government and country's last rebel group, the Forces for National Liberation (FNL). 

The FNL quit a joint ceasefire monitoring team last month, saying government troops had not withdrawn from areas under their control, which was one of the terms of a truce signed in September. 

Although both parties say they are ready for discussions, they have yet to agree on when and where they should take place. 

"I came here to see how we can remove the obstacles that seem to be blocking the implementation of the ceasefire agreement," said South African mediator Charles Nqakula, who held talks with Burundian President Pierre Nkurunziza. 

Nqakula said he planned go to Dar Es Salaam, Tanzania, to meet FNL leaders and give a report to regional leaders who will then decide on the date and the venue of the meeting. 

The FNL fear for the security of their leaders in the Burundi capital Bujumbura. 

Nkurunziza has said the government is flexible on the location, saying it could be outside of Burundi, but criticised the FNL for "changing its mind all the time". 

The FNL is demanding new negotiations on their integration into the country's institutions and a clear understanding of what role they will play in the nation's armed forces. 

The peace agreement between Nkurunziza and the FNL stirred hopes of lasting peace in the coffee-growing nation after more than a decade of ethnic civil war that killed 300,000 people. 

But the FNL's persistent insurgency is seen as a final barrier to stability in the landlocked country of 7 million. 

Semper Ubi Sub Ubi


----------



## ZzzzDad (14 May 2007)

Sting - this is old news, check back about the 2nd or 3rd page of this thread.  It is actually good news that the mediator is there and working on this.


----------



## sting (14 May 2007)

zzzdad, 

This is the second time they have come in...He only arrived on Saturday 2 days ago. THe peace was brokered earlier but was broken. The post that you refer to was the original deal prior to Argosy sending ppl over for the meeting

Semper Ubi Sub Ubi


----------



## Ruprect (14 May 2007)

Am i missing something? A surge in the sp late last week, no announcement, and surprisingly, no speeding ticket.


----------



## dj_420 (14 May 2007)

sting said:


> zzzdad,
> 
> This is the second time they have come in...He only arrived on Saturday 2 days ago. THe peace was brokered earlier but was broken. The post that you refer to was the original deal prior to Argosy sending ppl over for the meeting
> 
> Semper Ubi Sub Ubi




if they succeed in keeping peace long enough to launch a JV price will rocket, HOWEVER if peace deals break down people will lose all their money, ALL of their money, if it drops from $1 back to sub 10 cents, that may as well be all


----------



## the barry (17 May 2007)

Some one is seriously buying up this stock. Any one got any thoughts? Big buy orders going through today.


----------



## smartcard2 (17 May 2007)

Just noticed myself increased buying in the last hour ... ..  up 15 cents ..
Hopefully something coming down the news pipeline.


----------



## the barry (21 May 2007)

smartcard2 said:


> Just noticed myself increased buying in the last hour ... ..  up 15 cents ..
> Hopefully something coming down the news pipeline.




Definatly something in the air, gone into a trading halt. Judging by the increase in volume and price its going to be good news. Who knows though. Fingers crossed.


----------



## UPKA (21 May 2007)

the barry said:


> Definatly something in the air, gone into a trading halt. Judging by the increase in volume and price its going to be good news. Who knows though. Fingers crossed.




ppl have said teh same thing abt this one last time, there is no news of the directors going into the country again, dunno what the good news is gonna be? may be a JV?


----------



## the barry (21 May 2007)

UPKA said:


> ppl have said teh same thing abt this one last time, there is no news of the directors going into the country again, dunno what the good news is gonna be? may be a JV?




Was thinking that possibly they are going to announce that they have opened there office up in burrundi to establish presence again. There is a list of things that has to occur which the announcement may contain answers to any of the following;


"In order for the Registrant to complete the current stage of the development of the Burundi Nickel Project there must be a sustained return to political stability and security following which, it must undertake various steps, including the following:

  i. secure a commitment from a financial and/or technical joint venture partner; 

  ii. establish the PGM potential at Musongati; 

  iii. complete the feasibility study;  

  iv. obtain any necessary approvals and permits required in order to operate the nickel processing facility; 

  v. acquire the right to lands on which the nickel and cobalt processing facility and associated infrastructure will be constructed; and 

  vi. create a Burundian company to be owned 85% by the Registrant and 15% by the government of Burundi.  


Once the Registrant completes these steps in its current stage of activity, and if the results of the feasibility study are positive, the second stage in the development of the Burundi Nickel Project which the Registrant must undertake is to obtain project financing to raise the funds necessary to be able to acquire the land and construct the processing facilities. The third and final stage in the development of the Burundi Nickel Project would be the construction and commissioning of the processing facilities. There can be no assurance that any of the preceding steps will be completed to allow for the Burundi Nickel Project to move forward.


----------



## giss (23 May 2007)

9:10am 23/5/07

agy has agree to issue a non-brokered private placement of 3200000 shares at 95cents ($3,040,000) to institutional investors, subject to regulatory approval. the money will be used for working capital to advance agy activities in burundi, lac panache & fish creek projects in sunbury, ontario.

Not bad news. Institutional guys have locked in now at 95cents. This should set a new base for sp growth!


----------



## giss (29 May 2007)

*Burundi rebels rejoin ceasefire team in peace boost*

BUJUMBURA, May 28 (Reuters) - Burundi's last remaining rebel group gave a boost to peace prospects in the tiny central African nation on Monday by returning to a team monitoring a truce after hearing reassurances its grievances would be heard.

This is the sort of thing that this share has been waiting for. Very good news!

http://www.alertnet.org/thenews/newsdesk/L28326101.htm

I would expect the price would react well to this.


----------



## giss (3 June 2007)

there has been a constant supply of good ews from burundi lately. I wonder how long AGY will sit around the 85-95 cent range?


----------



## Stackman (6 June 2007)

AGY up 18% this morning. Low volume at the minute but must be someone must know something!

Stackman


----------



## ZzzzDad (8 June 2007)

Sydneysider - You started this thread, and I know you have moved on to other stocks, but still hold a core position.  What do you think of the past few days price action?  Despite the lousy management, they do sit on a huge resource (we presume).  Has anything changed in your mind?  Always value your input.


----------



## sting (18 June 2007)

TRADING HALT..... good news I hope have scanned the local Burundi newspaper but no mention lets hope its a matter of go ahead if so this SP will skyrocket to the delight of those who hung on when it looked bad


SEMPER UBI SUB UBI


----------



## the barry (18 June 2007)

sting said:


> TRADING HALT..... good news I hope have scanned the local Burundi newspaper but no mention lets hope its a matter of go ahead if so this SP will skyrocket to the delight of those who hung on when it looked bad
> 
> 
> SEMPER UBI SUB UBI




I still think it will take time before they get the go ahead. Most likely it will be about the canadian project or that they have set up office again in burundi. The more time goes by the better and better the chances of this one are. Wouldn't get to excited at this stage, but looking better and better.


----------



## giss (18 June 2007)

I've been scanning papers for a while now. The situation has settled. rebels & gov are in talks again. As said the announcement will probably be that they have opened up office again in burundi. That said i'll still hope for more. I find the way they release just small announcements by way of trading halt annoying!


----------



## sydneysider (19 June 2007)

ZzzzDad said:


> Sydneysider - You started this thread, and I know you have moved on to other stocks, but still hold a core position.  What do you think of the past few days price action?  Despite the lousy management, they do sit on a huge resource (we presume).  Has anything changed in your mind?  Always value your input.




Took a while to answer this post but I was away enjoying Daytona Beach with my young daughter for Fathers Day (plus a bunch of fine sunny days).

I traded this one multiple times from 33 cents up to a dollar and a few cents. I am completely out of the stock at this stage. I found their office totally unresponsive  to several requests for historical and other "public domain" information about their Burundi project. IMHO they are a very small company and I have no objective way of measuring their capability to "perform". They have a recent history of projects that did not pan out succesfully. At +$1.00 the stock no longer has the same appeal as it did at 33 cents when it was in a euphoric rush. I have no way of measuring country risk and decided to quit. This is an "all or nothing" stock at the moment and one that may drag on for some time or explode tomorrow, no-one knows. Good luck to the remaining longs.


----------



## ZzzzDad (19 June 2007)

sydneysider said:


> Took a while to answer this post but I was away enjoying Daytona Beach with my young daughter for Fathers Day (plus a bunch of fine sunny days).
> 
> I traded this one multiple times from 33 cents up to a dollar and a few cents. I am completely out of the stock at this stage. I found their office totally unresponsive  to several requests for historical and other "public domain" information about their Burundi project. IMHO they are a very small company and I have no objective way of measuring their capability to "perform". They have a recent history of projects that did not pan out succesfully. At +$1.00 the stock no longer has the same appeal as it did at 33 cents when it was in a euphoric rush. I have no way of measuring country risk and decided to quit. This is an "all or nothing" stock at the moment and one that may drag on for some time or explode tomorrow, no-one knows. Good luck to the remaining longs.




Thanks Syd and good luck with your other stocks.  ERN especially looks intriguing.  I'm going to stick with AGY for awhile (no choice, there is a trading halt  )   I have no doubt that they have no way of developing this themselves, but hope they are smart enough to negotiate some kind of extension and then selloff of Andover or complete takeover.

I'll look for your posts on other stocks with interest.  Again, good luck.


----------



## the barry (19 June 2007)

Share has been suspended from official quaotation. Wonder what is going on here, only big news comes after a suspension. Question is, good or bad?????


----------



## giss (19 June 2007)

another announcement as of 4.25pm today "suspension of official quotation" - Does that differ from trading halt? are they saying something else?


----------



## YELNATS (19 June 2007)

the barry said:


> Share has been suspended from official quaotation. Wonder what is going on here, only big news comes after a suspension. Question is, good or bad?????




Suspension was asked for by company. Obviously they need more time to finalise the announcement. I have an uneasy feeling about the Burundi entitlement. Hope I'm wrong.


----------



## giss (20 June 2007)

wasn't there an announcement due today? the trading halt said wednesday & then suspension didn't give a date. Can they keep tormenting us longer than they said?


----------



## ben_Q (21 June 2007)

giss said:


> wasn't there an announcement due today? the trading halt said wednesday & then suspension didn't give a date. Can they keep tormenting us longer than they said?





The announcement has been posted and does not look good. It appears there is a certain group within the government that is hindering the exploration progress and AGY are looking to prosecute the government against the mining convention. Confused as a previous report recommended the exploration continue but a certain minister produced anonther internal report against the exploration. 
Market to reopen this morning. 
Although the inital report mentions any litigation may be cost the government more than the value of the mine itself.


----------



## ZzzzDad (21 June 2007)

I don't believe AGY would be pursuing this if they didn't think they had a solid case.  It will cost money in litigation.  If they didn't think they had a strong case, they would not bother, they would just have to move on.  Burundi is making a big mistake here, they are ruining their reputation with the mining community, and this case will delay any development of Musongati for years.  It would prevent them for making a deal with any other company for years. 

In the meantime, our sp will fall like a rock.  I plan to hang on, as I think AGY is in the right here.  I would not blame anyone for selling though, this may take a while.  Good luck everyone.  Some very savvy investors might be grabbing up shares when it hits bottom.


----------



## UPKA (21 June 2007)

ZzzzDad said:


> I don't believe AGY would be pursuing this if they didn't think they had a solid case.  It will cost money in litigation.  If they didn't think they had a strong case, they would not bother, they would just have to move on.  Burundi is making a big mistake here, they are ruining their reputation with the mining community, and this case will delay any development of Musongati for years.  It would prevent them for making a deal with any other company for years.
> 
> In the meantime, our sp will fall like a rock.  I plan to hang on, as I think AGY is in the right here.  I would not blame anyone for selling though, this may take a while.  Good luck everyone.  Some very savvy investors might be grabbing up shares when it hits bottom.




I think what the government doing is trying to get a higher bid from other companies. obviously they know that they r sitting on a "gold mine", eyed by many interested investors, and due to the size of AGY, they are not capable of developing the mine themselves. in this case Burundi government will prefer a much larger player who can provide alot more to them. 

and i dont have much confidence in AGY's management n negotiation team, negotiating with small government like that u gotta provide more than pens n papers if u know wat i mean:.


----------



## ZzzzDad (21 June 2007)

UPKA said:


> I think what the government doing is trying to get a higher bid from other companies. obviously they know that they r sitting on a "gold mine", eyed by many interested investors, and due to the size of AGY, they are not capable of developing the mine themselves. in this case Burundi government will prefer a much larger player who can provide alot more to them.
> 
> and i dont have much confidence in AGY's management n negotiation team, negotiating with small government like that u gotta provide more than pens n papers if u know wat i mean:.





Obviously that is what they are trying to do, but they can't break international law, and they are only delaying the development of this deposit at a high risk.  They are apparently not very sophisticated, and maybe about to learn a lesson.  This minister of energy and mining sounds like a crook, if you read the report.  No big mining company will touch this if this is in protracted litigation.


----------



## giss (21 June 2007)

FINANCE: Bias Seen in Int'l Dispute Arbiters
By Emad Mekay

WASHINGTON, Jun 19 (IPS) - A little known entity closely affiliated with the World Bank that mediates disputes between sovereign nations and foreign investors appears to be skewed toward corporations in Northern countries, according to an IPS review of pending cases and other independent analyses of the tribunals. 
http://www.ipsnews.net/news.asp?idnews=38229

it seems from this report that the companies have solid rights to their investments. Burundi is dependent on world bank as are most countries especially in africa


----------



## the barry (21 June 2007)

giss said:


> FINANCE: Bias Seen in Int'l Dispute Arbiters
> By Emad Mekay
> 
> WASHINGTON, Jun 19 (IPS) - A little known entity closely affiliated with the World Bank that mediates disputes between sovereign nations and foreign investors appears to be skewed toward corporations in Northern countries, according to an IPS review of pending cases and other independent analyses of the tribunals.
> ...





I guess it all depends on timing, does anyone have any idea how long this could play out for? All i know, is i be bleeding right now. Still can't work out why you would buy this today. I think there is a lot more left to drop.


----------



## UPKA (21 June 2007)

Usually cases like this will take years to resolve, its a slow process, and this wont do the SP any good. I dont hold any AGY, and i dont plan to hold anymore since their last negotiation failed, seems to me that the government doesnt wanna give the license to AGY at all. its like if someone doesnt give u the access to their backyard, there's pretty much nothing u can do about it, especially when this so called democracy will probably turn into a dictatorship like its neighbours.


----------



## giss (21 June 2007)

Its hard to imagine why a poor country would want to postpone investment for years. This is probably their negotiation strategy. The last thing they would want is world bank imposed fines. Where else do they go except mining investors & world bank. Agy is probably holding back on paying bribes because they feel it is their right to get the mine on previous rights. T.I.S this is africa to quote a recent movie.


----------



## UPKA (21 June 2007)

giss said:


> Its hard to imagine why a poor country would want to postpone investment for years. This is probably their negotiation strategy. The last thing they would want is world bank imposed fines. Where else do they go except mining investors & world bank. Agy is probably holding back on paying bribes because they feel it is their right to get the mine on previous rights. T.I.S this is africa to quote a recent movie.




Thats why I said the company's management isnt up to the standard. its important to be flexible, because they are operating in a country where bribes r normal, they js have to adapt to that. I mean even our government r paying bribes to the Iraqis to buy our wheat! I have the impression that the Burundi government prob now have a few offers on their table, and its most likely going to the highest bidder in kickbacks. afterall World Bank's money goes to the country, bribes goes to their pockets.


----------



## dj_420 (21 June 2007)

far out, i just flicked onto comsec after an exam

AGY taken a huge huge hit. i was on this one from 35 something cents up to $1 and then out. the political risk was to much for me.

seems a lot of burnt fingers out there.

ive got no idea about AGY chances of recovering the deposit. it all seems a bit confusing to me.


----------



## YELNATS (21 June 2007)

It may not be all doom and gloom for AGY. As per AGY's announcement, according to the December 2005 Burundi government Inter-Ministerial Commission's report

"It would be ill advised for the State to break the Convention" which "could expose the State to the risk of paying damages in *immense sums that could exceed the value of the mine itself*", plus of course the legal costs to be awarded against them.

The results may now be played out in the international courts. Could take some time to resolve, although AGY looks to have a strong case and could receive massive compensation. regards YN


----------



## UPKA (21 June 2007)

YELNATS said:


> It may not be all doom and gloom for AGY. As per AGY's announcement, according to the December 2005 Burundi government Inter-Ministerial Commission's report
> 
> "It would be ill advised for the State to break the Convention" which "could expose the State to the risk of paying damages in *immense sums that could exceed the value of the mine itself*", plus of course the legal costs to be awarded against them.
> 
> The results may now be played out in the international courts. Could take some time to resolve, although AGY looks to have a strong case and could receive massive compensation. regards YN





Yes the company will probably win the case, bt legal cases like this is always long and costly, they will probably be compensated. bt who can guarantee that the current government is still in power when the case is settled? i think the punters r banking on the approval of development on the project, and now it's been seriously delayed, probably for years. So i wont be surprised to see the SP fall back to below 10c range. so becareful boys, my fingers r crossed for u that they'll get it resolved quickly n successfully! :hammer:


----------



## YELNATS (21 June 2007)

UPKA said:


> so becareful boys, my fingers r crossed for u that they'll get it resolved quickly n successfully! :hammer:




This was a card that AGY probably hoped they wouldn't have to play. 

You would hope with this leverage those wanting to line their own pockets within the Burundi government will see the light of day now.


----------



## giss (22 June 2007)

This is a strange stock. It seems to be digging itself out of a hole quite quickly. There may be some news on the market that I can't find! They case they have against Burundi governement is straight forward but could take a while.


----------



## ZzzzDad (22 June 2007)

giss said:


> This is a strange stock. It seems to be digging itself out of a hole quite quickly. There may be some news on the market that I can't find! They case they have against Burundi governement is straight forward but could take a while.




Could be some behind the scenes actions after AGY served notice on the Arb case today to the Burundi govt.  Just a guess.  That is what some are speculating anyway.


----------



## YELNATS (22 June 2007)

UPKA said:


> bt who can guarantee that the current government is still in power when the case is settled?




If AGY wins its case, one would hope the current government is no longer in power at that time. If so, whoever is in power then will have to toe the line or face the consequences from the international court.


----------



## ZzzzDad (9 July 2007)

Nice day today for AGY.  Close at 28.5 up 16%.  Let's hope some good news is on the way from Burundi.  At least a few people apparently think it is worth a shot.

Anyone hearing anything thru the grapevine?


----------



## ZzzzDad (18 July 2007)

We are now up 133% from the intraday low of 22.5 from just two weeks ago.  Quite a recovery.  Speculation is on this Zambian project being announced soon, or some good news from Burundi.  Whatever, something is brewing.  Announcement is probably coming shortly.


----------



## YELNATS (19 July 2007)

Something positive must be in the wind. Up as far as 68.5c today. Hoping for better news on the Burundi legal situation.


----------



## YELNATS (19 July 2007)

YELNATS said:


> Something positive must be in the wind. Up as far as 68.5c today. Hoping for better news on the Burundi legal situation.




Reply to speeding ticket issued at 12:43 pm today. The usual "we know nothing" response, palms upturned to the sky.

Interesting that trades around 60c still went through for up to 10 minutes after the reply.

Finished at 50.5c, down 2.5c. Still, maybe there is something positive in the wind, just that AGY are not ready to release it yet.

regards YN.


----------



## ZzzzDad (6 August 2007)

Nice finish for AGY considering such a down day in the overall market.  Up .005 to .445, after trading as low as .385.

I've heard from several sources that Peter Lloyd is headed back to Zambia today, perhaps to put the finishing touches on that deal

As our former cheerleader used to say - Good luck to all longs.


----------



## insidetrader (9 October 2007)

look out for a big announcement over the coming few weeks...

actually...i don't know exactly how big...but it will be significant...today's share price movement might be an indicator?


----------



## ZzzzDad (9 October 2007)

Hope you are right InsideTrader, but we have been waiting multiple two or three week periods so far.  On another board, someone also mentioned October as the date for news for AGY.  We'll see.


----------



## Joe Blow (9 October 2007)

insidetrader said:


> look out for a big announcement over the coming few weeks...
> 
> actually...i don't know exactly how big...but it will be significant...today's share price movement might be an indicator?




Why should people be on the look out for an announcement in the next few weeks? Is this based on anything that has been previously announced by the company or are you just guessing? And how do you know it will be 'significant'?


----------



## insidetrader (9 October 2007)

im not just 'guessing'

yesterdays trading may be an indication of people in the know getting in before the ann...


----------



## ZzzzDad (12 October 2007)

insidetrader said:


> im not just 'guessing'
> 
> yesterdays trading may be an indication of people in the know getting in before the ann...




We had a nice quiet advance today on moderate (for AGY) volume.  Has anyone heard a reason for this?  insidetrader, are you hearing anything new?

This stock has advanced from around .35 last week, to .495 (.50 high) today.  Could just be an accumulator, but it "feels" like something more.

Hopefully, next week will bring some news.


----------



## insidetrader (13 October 2007)

yeah someone told me last week that AGY was on the move again- no reasons or anything given though...i'm right at the bottom of the chain...just said to get on it...


----------



## ZzzzDad (17 October 2007)

Don't know if it is true or not, but it was mentioned on another forum that Peter Lloyd is on his way to BOTH Zambia AND Burundi.  If he is going back to Burundi, then this is BIG news.  With an arbitration lawsuit ongoing, there would be no reason for Peter Lloyd to travel to Burundi, unless something were up - a possible break through.  This could be a possible explanation of the near 50% runup of the last two weeks.


----------



## YELNATS (30 November 2007)

Yesterday's announcement that AGY would not proceed with the Canadian Sudbury option and instead they would concentrate on their African projects could be a positive indication that they feel that their African projects may yield a more promising outcome.

Let's hope so for the sake of patient holders.


----------



## austek (30 November 2007)

What would a visit to the mines (by an Analy I believe) have on the share price.  I was told October that this visit was about to happen by a fundamentalist and to get in at 34c.
I am having lunch with this guy tommorrow and will congratulate him on his success, he was in at 32c.


----------



## ZzzzDad (7 January 2008)

Okay, it has been a while since anyone has posted on this thread.  I'm wondering if anyone is hearing *ANYTHING* at all.  Whispers, rumors, or facts.......???

The only good thing about all this delay is that some of the shares I bought in March will soon qualify as long term capital gains.


----------



## tiktak (8 January 2008)

Here is something wrong!
11,3 % down (0,55) and the next buyer on 0,36 (someone know something).
I'm afraid this is it for Musongati and Burundi.
You just dont take a nation to court, and hope for the best


----------



## ZzzzDad (8 January 2008)

tiktak said:


> Here is something wrong!
> 11,3 % down (0,55) and the next buyer on 0,36 (someone know something).
> I'm afraid this is it for Musongati and Burundi.
> You just dont take a nation to court, and hope for the best




Must be okay, the 231k bid is back at .55.  Probably needed reassuring from someone overnight.  I think everything is still on track, but what do I know.


----------



## ZzzzDad (25 April 2008)

It has been a long time since anyone posted on this thread.  Anyone hearing anything at all thru the grapevine?  

There should probably be an announcement early next week for the AGM agenda - Director's elections and options, etc.  It will be interesting to see if there are additional options for outside parties, like there were last year, but were apparently never issued within the 3 month period after the AGM.  It will also be interesting to see if all the directors are up, and whether they will all get options to presumably expire in 2013, and at what strike price.  

Meanwhile no news has meant a very low stock price.


----------



## YELNATS (19 May 2008)

SP up more than 60% to 40c today. Doesn't appear to be any news officially announced, apart from quarterly report released last Friday morning.

Maybe something's in wind, perhaps a favourable development in Burundi (faint hope).


----------



## ZzzzDad (21 July 2008)

AGY back to .30.  The word from people who have called the office is that Peter Lloyd is in South Africa this week, which I assume is his base of operations as he shuttles between Zambia and Burundi.  Let's hope something is finally about to break for us.


----------



## ZzzzDad (31 July 2008)

Well, back to under .20 again.  The quarterly activities and cash flow report contains nothing new.  It does still hint at a project or projects in Africa that will have an immediate effect on cash flow if it comes through for us.  The Burundi tenements are still in arbitration, etc.

Word is, from someone that has called the office, is that Peter Lloyd is back to Africa again this week, after having returned from there just a week or so ago.  Time will tell if anything pans out with Burundi or other projects.


----------



## ZzzzDad (15 August 2008)

The second quarter financial report that is out today quotes $240,947 in arbitration costs for this quarter, as opposed to $62,963 in the first quarter. Apparently the arbitration is going full force right now.

Would the company waste a quarter million dollars in this quarter if they didn't feel they had an airtight case? That is about 1/10 of their cash reserves, and probably means more is being spent in this quarter as well.

My question to anyone that might have an answer - Who is paying the arbitration expense for the Burundians - one of the poorest nations on earth? Obviously they have counsel representing them. Any ideas? Could another company or country be paying it? Who is helping them with this?


----------



## Kremmen (28 February 2011)

It's a shame to see AGY having posted phenomenal gains recently, with no discussion here in years. Anybody know what the story is?


----------



## mr. jeff (28 February 2011)

looks like a brick wall with some guys on the other side who have some idea of whats going on without letting the public know. Releases aren't helpful, their website is "coming soon" and they are suspended as of today until early march. That help?!


----------



## Money N Run (18 October 2016)

Last post here was feb 2011. Its now half past october 2016.
Does anyone have any wisdom to contribute to this thread with regards to current day AGY?


----------



## pixel (31 March 2017)

they like Lithium, doesn't everybody?
If 4.3 can be broken, there may be something more in it. 4.5, possibly even 5c.
On that basis, I took a small speccy posi.


----------



## stockartist147 (5 June 2018)

Gents AGY is down by 25% despite the announcement, whats going on


----------



## greggles (5 June 2018)

stockartist147 said:


> Gents AGY is down by 25% despite the announcement, whats going on




The devil is in the detail:


> A sample of the first one kilogram production batch was tested in the Company's lab co-located at the Stage 1 industrial scale pilot plant and determined to be a good quality 'industrial  grade' LCE. Importantly, key deleterious elements for battery grade such as Mg, SO4 and metallic impurities were within acceptable specification ranges, which Argosy will have independently tested by a third-party lab to confirm its internal results. The key issue determining the tested batch to be industrial grade vs. battery grade was the presence of certain soluble impurities. These would usually be removed by the 'washing' stage but that stage is not yet fully functional in the plant because the stage prior requires a high heat, and Argosy is still awaiting a natural gas supply for the plant to provide such temperature.




The market was expecting battery grade, not industrial grade.


----------



## stockartist147 (5 June 2018)

Thanks greggles for that... Just pondering if AGY is a good buy at this price...


----------



## greggles (5 June 2018)

stockartist147 said:


> Thanks greggles for that... Just pondering if AGY is a good buy at this price...



Buying after a negative or disappointing announcement is a risky game. You have to be sure that the sell off has been overdone and that things won't get worse. If you're not sure, wait until the dust settles and do your research. Better to wait if you're uncertain. There are always other opportunities.


----------



## greggles (19 June 2018)

Argosy Minerals recovering over the last couple of days after releasing a couple of announcements that has restored some confidence.

Yesterday they announced that the main gas supply at their industrial scale pilot plant for the Rincon Lithium Project has been switched on and its being utilised. Now perhaps they can produce the battery grade material as they were originally intending.

Today they announced a maiden JORC compliant Mineral Resource estimate of 207,957 tonnes of contained lithium carbonate equivalent (LCE) product for their Rincon Lithium Project in Salta Province, Argentina.

The AGY share price has bounced back nicely but the next test is the 30c mark where there looks to be some resistance. Currently trading at 28c, up 7.69% from yesterday's close.


----------



## greggles (6 August 2018)

This morning Argosy Minerals has confirmed that 'battery grade' 99.6% LCE product has been achieved from its Rincon Lithium Project in Argentina. The company also said that it is progressing with product off-take discussions with major international groups.

AGY has bounced back nicely today after the announcement and is currently up 36.11% to 24.5c.


----------



## galumay (6 August 2018)

Its a sham IMO, in house testing, not independent. Tiny amount of LCE produced from a tenament that doesnt look viable anyway. More pumping from the HC crowd and related parties. DYOR.


----------



## Trav. (16 July 2019)

AGY popped up on my daily scan today. Latest news released on the 5/7 didn't really spark any SP movement but something is brewing as SP is starting to run up and may break recent high of 8.7c


----------



## Metal Teeth (19 November 2020)

Up about 15% today with no recent news that I can find. Lithium has yet to move. Newly announced defence pact with Japan maybe?


----------



## Garpal Gumnut (31 December 2020)

Up nearly 18% today. 

AGY is a lithium play with holes all the way from Argentina to Tasmania. 

gg


----------



## Dona Ferentes (4 February 2021)

_Argentinian lithium play Argosy Minerals is asking fund managers to tip into a $30 million equity raising at 13¢ a share.

Stockbroker Bell Potter kicked off the placement on Thursday morning, telling funds that Argosy Minerals was after development capital for its Rincon Lithium Project in Argentina._


----------



## greggles (29 October 2021)

AGY has quietly doubled in price from 15c last month to a high of 30c this week. 

The first commercial production of battery quality Li2CO3 product from the Rincon Lithium Project is expected by mid-2022. Project 
construction works are now 40% complete and the 2,000tpa process plant design and engineering layout works are completed.

These are AGY's objectives for the current quarter:






Also worth noting this:






Lots of scope for more good news in the coming months.


----------



## peter2 (31 December 2021)

Selected *AGY* for the Jan comp. Interesting that no-one, so far, has posted about it for the CY22 yearly comp. 
Lithium will continue to fly high in 2022. 

Chart wise. The recent HVBB prompted a new position in the Combo portfolio. I also notice that other Argentina Li brine projects have attracted lots of demand recently.


----------



## Sdajii (23 July 2022)

The 2KTPA plant should be commissioned this quarter. We should get an update Monday week.


----------



## qldfrog (23 July 2022)

Sdajii said:


> The 2KTPA plant should be commissioned this quarter. We should get an update Monday week.



Welcome back


----------



## Boggo (24 August 2022)

Interesting write up on AGY from a few months ago. It seems to have potential.    (Disc - I do hold)

Seeking Alpha re AGY


----------



## frugal.rock (24 August 2022)

Boggo said:


> (Disc - I do hold)



So do I...


----------



## peter2 (24 August 2022)

IMHO the price action from the recent low looks corrective to me. I did buy the recent BO >0.36 but have since sold as price drifted down. Todays up bar looks promising and I'd like to see a HVBB closing >0.41 to rebuy. 

Current lithium producers (*AKE, PLS*) are going gangbusters so there's solid demand for lithium companies that are close to production. Price of LiCo3 and spodumene have remained high. Battery manufacturers are desperate for more.


----------



## frugal.rock (24 August 2022)

I'm not trading as tightly as I once was, so haven't sold.
Owing to its sector, it gets more leeway and time to "mature". 
I might be mellowing as well?
Was in on 25th July on 0.365 FWIW.


----------



## Boggo (24 August 2022)

peter2 said:


> IMHO the price action from the recent low looks corrective to me. I did buy the recent BO >0.36 but have since sold as price drifted down. Todays up bar looks promising and I'd like to see a HVBB closing >0.41 to rebuy.
> 
> Current lithium producers (*AKE, PLS*) are going gangbusters so there's solid demand for lithium companies that are close to production. Price of LiCo3 and spodumene have remained high. Battery manufacturers are desperate for more.




Agree @peter2. I have been focusing on this sector for a while now. 

A few of the stocks that have my attention somewhat more than others in the sector are AGY, CXO, LKE, LTR, PAN, PDN and PLS.
There's a secondary list that contains quite a few more that are probably a bit more hit and run.


----------



## frugal.rock (2 September 2022)

S&P/ASX 300 Index – Effective Prior to the Open on September 19, 2022

Addition, AGY, Argosy Minerals Limited

Quite a few additions of "stocks of interest".


----------



## Sdajii (4 September 2022)

I chose this one for the September competition. This should be a great month, we've just been added to the ASX300, which came as a complete surprise to me, we probably won't quite complete commissioning of the new plant but we'll get close (completion probably coming next month), and with a bit of luck we might get the resource upgrade and/or 10,000TPA expansion permit.

Exciting times for AGY over the next few months.


----------



## bk1 (21 September 2022)

A near Lithium producer. Beneficiary of S&P/ASX 300 Index quarterly re balance? or something else..
Entered at the blue line.


----------



## Sdajii (21 September 2022)

bk1 said:


> A near Lithium producer. Beneficiary of S&P/ASX 300 Index quarterly re balance? or something else..
> Entered at the blue line.




Nice buy!

I've been in since 13c on the day the capital raising (at 13c) was announced early last year. Kept on buying around 10c and did a lot of trading along the way as it bounced around, often fairly predictably. I was watching before they raised the funds, but knew that was going to crash the price. I'm guessing you'll make more than 50% on your money before the end of the year, and if you hang on for 2+ years I'm confident you'll have a handsome multibagger.

This was absurd value below 10c not much more than a year ago, and it's just taking time to catch up. Stocks struggle to increase too quickly due to profit takers, and plenty of people trade it (I was very guilty of this for around 18 months) which keeps the hand break on the gains.

Just crunching some back of the envelope numbers, AGY plans to expand to 12,000TPA over the next 2-3 years (with 90% ownership of the project). You can plug in whatever number you like for lithium prices, but at current spot prices, net revenue would be above the current market cap! Even if you want to say they'll be selling for half that (I personally expect they'll be higher, but let's go with conservative forecasts), net revenue is almost as high as the current market cap, so using whatever value of P/E you choose, this will be a multibagger.

But, it gets better. The plan is to expand to 25,000TPA over the following 2-3 years, so you can take your multibagger and double it in around 4-6 years.

There's also the chance that their Tonopah tenement will have a commercially viable resource, in which case you have an entire extra project for the company which could potentially be comparable or even larger to the Rincon project (completely unproven at this stage and is appropriately being priced in as about zero, but we have that wildcard).

If lithium prices do what I expect, in about 5-6 years they should be paying dividends of around my average buy price (about a third of yours). If not, hey, at least a smaller multibagger is still a multibagger.

With all this in mind, it's no wonder we're seeing a rally (which is really just a continuation of the long term up trend which has been going on for more than a year), but current reasons are that we're just about to start our first commercial scale production (though due to increased lithium prices our pilot plant has more or less been commercial production for a while now), we should get out 10,000TPA expansion permit any time, our drill results hopefully including a resource expansion are due any time and won't be far off, yes, the ASX300 inclusion this week no doubt helped, and lithium prices have just blown the 500,000CNY cap, so the whole sector is rallying.


----------



## Sdajii (29 November 2022)

I chose AGY again for December. The TA knocked it down a bit late this month, and should bounce, hopefully. As far as the competition goes, hopefully it'll crash tomorrow and close around the bottom of the fair value gap at 52c then rally through December. Looks like it might have already bounced off 56c today. We'll see. As long as the global economy doesn't crash severely, I'm confident it'll be higher at the end of December than it is now.


----------



## Sdajii (21 December 2022)

Choosing it again for January. We were looking very promising then had some bad action on the foreign markets and lithium prices as we were bouncing off the bottom of the pennant, causing us to break down instead of up. Hopefully January is a better month.


----------



## Sdajii (2 January 2023)

Tipping AGY in the 2023 competition.

I think this will be a great year for AGY and I'm hoping for better than 100% return over the year, with a lot of that to come in the first quarter or two. I might have already posted most of this in the thread before, but to reiterate the salient points:

We've already begun commissioning the company's first commercial-scale production plant. While relatively modest in size (2,000TPA, most of which is AGY's), at current spot prices that alone almost justifies the current market cap.

Unless anything goes wrong, we'll have our permit granted allowing us to expand to 10,000TPA. AGY's share of the venture will increase by more than 5x, justifying a market cap of multiples of the current value (by the metric of the current spot price, and keeping in mind that it will take approximately two years to build).

We're currently doing exploration drilling and should have a resource upgrade this quarter or maybe early next quarter. Resource size isn't quite as relevant to lithium briners than most other mining ventures, but in the eyes of the market resource size is king so it should impact the share price.

AGY has a tenement in Tonopah in the USA. Currently we have no direct data on how much lithium brine is there or whether or not it's a commercially viable resource at all, but the results of exploration drilling on that tenement will be revealed in the next few months. Currently the market isn't seemingly pricing anything in for Tonopah, but if it is a viable resource it will rerate the company.

Long term TA on AGY looks fantastic, with a long term C&H with a target price of $1.105 which we should hit by mid year.

If it's not obvious, I'm very bullish on AGY and have parked most of my money in it along with tipping it in the contest.


----------

