# Sentiment - are you bullish or bearish?



## Uncle Festivus (10 April 2009)

Just getting a feel for peoples sentiment to the share market - are you bullish or bearish about the future?


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## Green08 (10 April 2009)

Reading, watching, listening and my abdominal feel this is a dead cat bouncing along.  The jobs numbers, domestic growth and sales indicate other than what the market is doing now.  The market in the past 16 months has not always responded accordingly to factual information.  A complete over shoot of Wells Fargo, do you count savings as profit? Profit on what? How did they present their debt? After the last lot of 'cooked books' we haven't seen the end.

I believe we will turn down again and eventually go lower than the previous one we are not at the bottom.  Stocker brokers, Financial advisers, Super Funds have to make fees somewhere and selling this europhic moment to desperate clients on nothing but a flimsy 'could, should, maybe, perhaps, history, therefore' will come to roost. People have stopped asking pertaining questions - so much nicer to be a mushroom.


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## Logique (10 April 2009)

Cautiously bullish now, but not expecting a straight line recovery. The US results season will tell the tale.


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## CanOz (10 April 2009)

We WILL make another low, its only when not IF.

In then meantime if the price action gives more long signals or patterns then trade that, i try to keep a few shorts loaded up in order to balance things out and be into profit again on the turn, but otherwise i am all long now.

CanOz


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## studmuffin (10 April 2009)

Im starting to see afew stocks flirting or rising above 200 day ma..


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## MrBurns (10 April 2009)

Look what happened to the freeking Dow last night !

I just cannot work this out, I'd love to think we're ok now go back in but *I just don't know* and thats it.


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## Aussiejeff (10 April 2009)

MrBurns said:


> Look what happened to the freeking Dow last night !
> 
> I just cannot work this out, I'd love to think we're ok now go back in but *I just don't know* and thats it.




What?

Are you telling me _you don't have crystal balls?_


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## Gordon Gekko (10 April 2009)

Well I'm buillish!

But I guess I'm looking 3 to 5 years out not 3 to 5 days out.

Best of luck

G


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## MrBurns (10 April 2009)

Gordon Gekko said:


> Well I'm buillish!
> 
> But I guess I'm looking 3 to 5 years out not 3 to 5 days out.
> 
> ...




Ok but would you go in now ??????? there doesnt seem to be any rush.


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## Gordon Gekko (10 April 2009)

I'm no expert, I don't speculate. I don't try to pick the bottom or listen to others who try. I am 100% fully invested and continue to average down every fortnight. Those who buy at or near the bottom will be rewarded in the long term. 

Just my

Best

G


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## MRC & Co (10 April 2009)

Logique said:


> Cautiously bullish now.




Cautiously bearish at the moment.


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## MrBurns (10 April 2009)

MRC & Co said:


> Cautiously bearish at the moment.




Me too but i'm sick of it, would rather be like Gordon


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## Green08 (10 April 2009)

> Me too but i'm sick of it, would rather be like Gordon




It is just a change of attitude - simple. If that's what you want

I take it you believe everything you read here?


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## MrBurns (10 April 2009)

Green08 said:


> It is just a change of attitude - simple. If that's what you want
> 
> I take it you believe everything you read here?




A cross section of everything and the message is dont buy yet.


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## Green08 (10 April 2009)

> and the message is dont buy yet




Spot on Burnsie - or do it with great caution


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## CanOz (10 April 2009)

MRC & Co said:


> Cautiously bearish at the moment.




Well said. I selected bearish, but i continue to trade the bullish setups as they appear. 

CanOz


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## RayG (10 April 2009)

MrBurns said:


> A cross section of everything and the message is dont buy yet.





First post here, in order to balance the bearish sentiment prevailing around here, let me put a case for the bulls...

The market seems to be currently dominated by sentiment,  just look at the strong coupling between the markets around the world. Fundamentals have taken a back seat to the classic fear versus greed balancing act.  

The question is what could possibly happen in the future to spook the markets more than the spectre of total collapse of the world banking system.  We have just witnessed what the fear of *that* can do.  I can't imagine any event, that would frighten investors more than that has done already. 

So, unless a major war breaks out somewhere, or some other global crisis intervenes, I think we have seen the worst of it already.  

*Optimal timing to get back in the market has probably passed already.*

Is that bullish enough?. 

Ray


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## Gordon Gekko (10 April 2009)

Agreed!!

Finally!!

The smart money has been accumulating for some time now at least for those who have a time frame of years not minutes.

Best

G


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## alphaman (10 April 2009)

RayG said:


> The question is what could possibly happen in the future to spook the markets more than the spectre of total collapse of the world banking system.



Doesn't have to take a total collapse to drive down the market. The simple "lower earnings, lower price" will do.

It's amazing how often people say they are in for the long term, yet they get excited by short term price movements.


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## Uncle Festivus (10 April 2009)

Gordon Gekko said:


> Agreed!!
> 
> Finally!!
> 
> ...




Who's 'the smart money'?? and how do you know??


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## Grinder (10 April 2009)

Uncle Festivus said:


> Just getting a feel for peoples sentiment to the share market - are you bullish or bearish about the future?




Neutral to bearish, keep trying to become bullish against my better judgement.


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## banska bystrica (10 April 2009)

We've seen the bottom but it's not the start of a bull market yet. It will be a sideways/up/down market for the rest of 2009 but the lows will not be tested. 
I've been buying heavily since Nov 2008 and my portfolio is up over 140% on it's Nov 2008 value. It's a lesson to not try and pick the bottom. 
Most "conservative" investors are late to the party and the first to leave. Most of my buys since November had already lost over 90% of their value from the peak. Therefore, if I wasn't prepared to buy at those levels, I shouldn't even be in the market.

Why do I think we've seen the bottom? Because the DJIA level of 6500 was not based on fundamentals but fear and panic. The DJIA can rise to 8800/9000 and only at that level is it "fair value" based on earnings. I see a trading range of 7000 - 9500 for some time yet. Possibly a breakout above 9500 in 2010/11.


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## Uncle Festivus (10 April 2009)

"..... but the lows will not be tested"

Curious as to why such conviction that this is not a possibility? Reasons for bullishness/bearishness?


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## banska bystrica (10 April 2009)

Uncle Festivus said:


> "..... but the lows will not be tested"
> 
> Curious as to why such conviction that this is not a possibility? Reasons for bullishness/bearishness?




Why do I think we've seen the bottom? Because the DJIA level of 6500 was not based on fundamentals but fear and panic. The DJIA can rise to 8800/9000 and only at that level is it "fair value" based on earnings. I see a trading range of 7000 - 9500 for some time yet. Possibly a breakout above 9500 in 2010/11.

I cannot envisage a bigger event than "the potential collapse of the global banking system" to spook the market below 6500.


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## Uncle Festivus (10 April 2009)

banska bystrica said:


> I cannot envisage a bigger event than "the potential collapse of the global banking system" to spook the market below 6500.




Other than "the collapse of the global banking system"? 

Why is it not possible - it is feasable at least? Some of the the Dow is made up of companies who are technically already insolvent, all it takes is for someone or some law department to enact the law and it's all over. These companies are breaking the law, it's just that all are turning a blind eye to it because the consequences of enacting the law will be a total global financial collapse.

Not many realise how close the world is to that scenario, or maybe they do but won't say so out loud?

GS = fraud & corruption?


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## Nyden (10 April 2009)

Uncle Festivus said:


> it's just that all are turning a blind eye to it because the consequences of enacting the law will be a total global financial collapse.
> 
> Not many realise how close the world is to that scenario, or maybe they do but won't say so out loud?
> 
> GS = fraud & corruption?




So, if the consequences are so dire, who the heck is going to enact these laws then? Furthermore, why would they? Because it's just, right, fair, proper? Get real. The current superpowers that be, simply aren't going to give up their positions anytime soon.

Despite all the scare-mongering by the permabear goldbugs, if I had to place an All-in bet on either collapse, or an eventual recovery - I'd bet on recovery in a heartbeat.

Keep the bearish views coming guys, only makes for a more sustained rally  Just let us know when you start buying :


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## Gordon Gekko (10 April 2009)

I would be allot more bearish if the market was at 6500 rather than 3700..


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## banska bystrica (10 April 2009)

Uncle Festivus said:


> Other than "the collapse of the global banking system"?
> 
> Why is it not possible - it is feasable at least?




It's possible but highly improbable. Govts have unlimited ammunition and they will use it if necessary.


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## enigmatic (10 April 2009)

I would definitely suggest people should of been bullish March 13th through to March 27th 
however from the March 30th onwards I would expect some to turn more bearish again unless another big break above 3800

Im still Bearish until the 250day MVA is broken and that is still up near 4229
I have been averaging down for the last 2 years. Made a few good picks bought and sold for profit others not so good and have unfortunetly held..


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## MrBurns (10 April 2009)

Well I'm bearish again, Kleenmaid just went broke, Iv'e been buying their products for a long time and just paid for an extended warranty on my dishwasher, now worthless.

If Kleenmaid can go broke this is more serious than I thought.

http://www.theaustralian.news.com.au/story/0,24897,25316646-643,00.html


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## moXJO (10 April 2009)

Bearish but trading, I have to say this has been a very tradable market.There is a lot of bad news out there, that is hidden by fairy floss articles on the market already seeing the bottom.Once people get a reality check than it's going to get ugly again imo.


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## Green08 (10 April 2009)

> Why do I think we've seen the bottom? Because the DJIA level of 6500 was not based on fundamentals but fear and panic.




OK so now we have some real figures, I love this one (better than expected) but if you put better than expected 5 months ago it would have been a bloody disaster figure these better than expected figures taking a real look at the business results are not so hot. 

It will be very interesting  when the 'real fundamentals' filter through and 'real fear and panic' set in. What will it take a loose of 20% of your Super this year but compounded with 30% you lost last year - not hot. I few lucky young gun gamblers will not hold up the economy long term. Your taxes won't covered the out of work and I doubt you're starting a business to employ them.

I've had trades and made money but fingers are posied to exit. If you're game and lucky no doubt you can make money TRADING but investment is another thing. For the long term I'm out.

I'd be very interested to know if the money buying is real owned cash opposed to any line of credit.


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## Gordon Gekko (10 April 2009)

Green08 said:


> OK so now we have some real figures, I love this one (better than expected) but if you put better than expected 5 months ago it would have been a bloody disaster figure these better than expected figures taking a real look at the business results are not so hot.
> 
> It will be very interesting  when the 'real fundamentals' filter through and 'real fear and panic' set in. What will it take a loose of 20% of your Super this year but compounded with 30% you lost last year - not hot. I few lucky young gun gamblers will not hold up the economy long term. Your taxes won't covered the out of work and I doubt you're starting a business to employ them.
> 
> ...







That as bullish an indicator as any I've heard all day!!

Best

G


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## MRC & Co (10 April 2009)

CanOz said:


> Well said. I selected bearish, but i continue to trade the bullish setups as they appear.
> 
> CanOz




Exactly, and I'm not so sure they 'boyz' as TH calls them, didn't create a bearish situation as seen recently, then give us one last sudden really to get the bulls jumping at their lovely calls and those bears worrying about their conviction, before they really give us the final snap down into the range again.  Just one way they like to fukc both sides of the party.  S&P looks like a rolling top to me, a final spike is sometimes seen just to do as I mentioned above.  

But agree Canoz, take an opinion but trade both sides if it permits, on Thursday for example, I made more on the long side, despite being quite bearish at the time.  If the market does look to weaken though, I will be looking to hit it with as much size as I can.


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## Green08 (10 April 2009)

> That as bullish an indicator as any I've heard all day!!




I'm obviously talking to a bull  - are you ready for the drop down? You're probably young and 'nothing can happen to me' type. That's fine. Just be aware. 

Perhaps it is bullish for the stocks you want to go up? Those that held BNB wouldn't share your enthusiasm. 

This thread will be a welcomed visit in 6 months.


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## Green08 (10 April 2009)

A little music to remind us by a  legend
​


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## Broadway (10 April 2009)

MRC & Co said:


> Exactly, and I'm not so sure they 'boyz' as TH calls them, didn't create a bearish situation as seen recently, then give us one last sudden really to get the bulls jumping at their lovely calls and those bears worrying about their conviction, before they really give us the final snap down into the range again.  Just one way they like to fukc both sides of the party.  S&P looks like a rolling top to me, a final spike is sometimes seen just to do as I mentioned above.  .




I thought it was interesting Wells Fargo should give an 'out of the blue' profit guidance when it reports on April 22 anyway. Weird timing.
Why didn't Citi or AIG give a warning on Thursday night.
I think alot of shorts were grabbed at ES 840-850 and now we go back down.
The N225 falling 200 points today seems to suggest some bearishness next week as well.
And below is a US financial bear ETF (FAZ) that was traded heavily into close.
We'll see I guess.


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## Gordon Gekko (10 April 2009)

Green08 said:


> OK so now we have some real figures, I love this one (better than expected) but if you put better than expected 5 months ago it would have been a bloody disaster figure these better than expected figures taking a real look at the business results are not so hot.
> 
> It will be very interesting  when the 'real fundamentals' filter through and 'real fear and panic' set in. What will it take a loose of 20% of your Super this year but compounded with 30% you lost last year - not hot. I few lucky young gun gamblers will not hold up the economy long term. Your taxes won't covered the out of work and I doubt you're starting a business to employ them.
> 
> ...






Green08 said:


> I'm obviously talking to a bull  - are you ready for the drop down? You're probably young and 'nothing can happen to me' type. That's fine. Just be aware.
> 
> Perhaps it is bullish for the stocks you want to go up? Those that held BNB wouldn't share your enthusiasm.
> 
> This thread will be a welcomed visit in 6 months.





Hi Greenway08,

Thanks for the heads up! I've been buying the "big drop down since Sept"
I am averaged right down to the index. Call it lazy, call it overly diversified, call it boring (STW)
I've been buying heavily while allot of posters are are sitting on the sidelines waiting for this big drop. It may very well drop but I will continue buying every fortnight. I am young at 34 but Ive read all the books. And they keep telling me buy the index. There may be traders who disagree and hey best of luck to you all.
The longer the bears keep this index at these levels the longer I can accumulate at these prices, were else am I going to put the money? 

All the best and happy easter!!

G


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## Uncle Festivus (11 April 2009)

Nyden said:


> So, if the consequences are so dire, who the heck is going to enact these laws then? Furthermore, why would they? Because it's just, right, fair, proper? Get real. The current superpowers that be, simply aren't going to give up their positions anytime soon.
> 
> Despite all the scare-mongering by the permabear goldbugs, if I had to place an All-in bet on either collapse, or an eventual recovery - I'd bet on recovery in a heartbeat.
> 
> Keep the bearish views coming guys, only makes for a more sustained rally  Just let us know when you start buying :




That's entirely correct - the consequences are so dire that extreme measures are being taken to prevent them happening, and yes, most of it is illegal. Make of it as you will, but there are no laws now, at least not for those with real money, so does that make for a sustainable future? It's a game now, and learning it just became a whole lot simpler. So go ahead, buy up big, but when the Dow falls by 1k in a session don't complain about the unfareness of it.

I've been long for several weeks, but will be selling into this weeks rally as the shorts are just about covered?


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## Green08 (11 April 2009)

Has anyone seen the CNBC 'House of Cards' about the subprime? Even the rating agencies were in on it. Very interesting the amount of people with no concern for others.


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## Garpal Gumnut (11 April 2009)

I'd be the worst person to pick where a stock is going, I always remember my duds.

I do pride myself on stop losses and only play stocks on asx., i.e. long 

IMO the market is set for the mother of all bear trends, then a sideways correction for 2-5 years then a resumption of the bull.

If in doubt re this advice read paragraph one.

gg


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## psychic (12 April 2009)

The higher we go in this curent rally the steeper we will fall, prepare for this fall.  A current reading from Martin Armstrong suggests an April top with a July bottom.  I am in cash and awaiting this fall


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## Uncle Festivus (12 April 2009)

Sell in May & run away 

Then again, Time mag says it's all over:bs:



> But, the great banking crisis of 2008 is over.




http://www.time.com/time/business/article/0,8599,1890560,00.html


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## enigmatic (13 April 2009)

Bullish come 2011-2012..

Once the dust settles and we have had a few good rallies A few more companies have fallen over unemployment has hit 15-20%
GDP Growth turns positive again..

At which point I have learnt how to trade efficently to ride the bull market haha okay .. So i can dream..

What if we had another 11years to go in this bear market.. see chart..


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