# XAO Analysis Prediction



## tech/a (6 October 2005)

A technical view.4300 to 4250 at the end of this correction--when IE timeframe I reckon about a month.


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## RichKid (6 October 2005)

Great chart and fair enough for a prediction, logical chartwise. Nice to see support corresponding to previous highs and 50% retrace. If it keeps going through the previous high and falls through around 4175 then we'll know we're in big trouble.


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## Kauri (7 October 2005)

tech/a...thats the way I saw it as well, have closed most of my long positions during the day ( _had stops tightened when xao dropped below med term line in late August and failed to lift back above it on the last couple of days last month_),waiting now for the inevitable bounce before considering shorts. 
   My trading time frame is mostly measured in days, sometimes weeks, therefore I use tighter stops than longer term holders.


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## RichKid (20 October 2005)

Our resident soothsayers are looking good so far, no bounce yet. That previous high set early in the year is looking more and more attractive by the day as support.


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## tech/a (20 October 2005)

Yeh Rich.

If you want any more predictions it will cost you a Grand!!.

Hahahha


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## RichKid (20 October 2005)

tech/a said:
			
		

> Yeh Rich.
> 
> If you want any more predictions it will cost you a Grand!!.
> 
> Hahahha




Hehehehe, might cost some people more than that if there's real money behind the many charts and opinions which litter stock forums!


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## michael_selway (20 October 2005)

tech/a said:
			
		

> A technical view.4300 to 4250 at the end of this correction--when IE timeframe I reckon about a month.




Hi thx for the chart

so its saying that if it repeats the Mar-May fall, then it should stop at 4250-4300 then rebound? and what about the chances? it drops below 4200? does it say that? sorry im new but interested

thanks!


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## mit (21 October 2005)

michael_selway said:
			
		

> Hi thx for the chart
> 
> so its saying that if it repeats the Mar-May fall, then it should stop at 4250-4300 then rebound? and what about the chances? it drops below 4200? does it say that? sorry im new but interested
> 
> thanks!




The support is a projection of the high prior to the fall, although it is true that the size of the drop is almost identical. Another support can be projected from the Mar-May low. If the market breaks through this support then the uptrend that started in March '03 will have broken. If we then have a lower high and a lower low then a down trend will have been established.

From support and resistance analysis alone it is more probable that the market will reverse at or before it reaches the support. However, the increase in volatility (especially the size of the downdays) could change the probabilities.

MIT


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## Milk Man (21 October 2005)

Ive got support/resistance levels at 4317 then 4266 then a major at 4180. After that the next is 3880. If I was to trade it (which im not: please see below disclaimer  ) i'd short just below 4317 and pyramid in after each is broken. Sells would be bounce close to support level (5 ticks?) and stops 5 ticks below resistance. Objective is 3900 with sell triggered at 3910.

Not much thought gone into it, not going to do discretionary yet (if ever) just want to see what you think.

Is that worth $1000 guys? Id have to say it was extremely easy!


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## Milk Man (23 October 2005)

Milk Man said:
			
		

> Ive got support/resistance levels at 4317 then 4266 then a major at 4180. After that the next is 3880. If I was to trade it (which im not: please see below disclaimer  ) i'd short just below 4317 and pyramid in after each is broken. Sells would be bounce close to support level (5 ticks?) and stops 5 ticks below resistance. Objective is 3900 with sell triggered at 3910.
> 
> Not much thought gone into it, not going to do discretionary yet (if ever) just want to see what you think.
> 
> Is that worth $1000 guys? Id have to say it was extremely easy!




Didnt explain buy signals clear enough. I would have been stopped out though. Shorts will be 5 ticks below support/resistance and stops 5 ticks above s/r (for shorts). Methinks intraday charts might be handy....


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## GreatPig (21 December 2005)

A nice push up through resistance today.

Interesting to see if it can keep its head above water.

Cheers,
GP


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## RichKid (21 December 2005)

Nice strong run, now if only we could have a small pullback on low volume to the old highs we can all go long with glee!!


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## GreatPig (18 May 2006)

Time to update this thread.

It seems to me to be now running in an expanding channel (between the thick blue lines), with the corrections getting larger and steeper each time.

Today it touched the bottom of the channel and then pulled back a little. Maybe we'll now see some consolidation at this level with it then starting to move back up again.

If it drops through this trend line, the next support level is down around 4900 by my reckoning, or maybe even 4800. The longer-term trend line is down around 4650 - a long way from here! 

Cheers,
GP


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## professor_frink (19 May 2006)

looks like that trendline is going to be in a bit of danger today GP! Should be an interesting day.


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## mit (19 May 2006)

professor_frink said:
			
		

> looks like that trendline is going to be in a bit of danger today GP! Should be an interesting day.




I don't want any more interesting days.

MIT


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## Sean K (19 May 2006)

I doubt we'll have more than a 10% retractment from the high which will take us to around 4900. 

At this level the forward PE should be around the long term average or just under, and a good launching pad for the next push to 5500 by the end of the year as corporate profits once again come in at double digit numbers.


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## ctp6360 (19 May 2006)

Today's drop isn't as bad as I thought it would be first off, I was expecting a big gap down and then a slow, steady increase for the rest of the day, but things arn't looking nearly as bad as I thought they'd be. Which is a relief I must say.


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## ctp6360 (19 May 2006)

I might even get some green on my screen today!
Maybe these are famous last words, ha ha ha!


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## Sean K (19 May 2006)

It seems a lot of people are just waiting on the sidelines to see what happens.

Perhaps all the bears have sold out? 

Perhaps we are in the eye of the storm?


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## GreatPig (19 May 2006)

That lower orange/yellow line around 4850 on my chart is the trend line under the April and October corrections last year. This could also provide a base for further falls through the blue trend line.

Optimism must prevail... 

GP


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## ctp6360 (19 May 2006)

My god guys if I'm going to lose all my money I at least want to enjoy the process, give me some good news!!!


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## GreatPig (19 May 2006)

ctp6360 said:
			
		

> My god guys if I'm going to lose all my money I at least want to enjoy the process, give me some good news!!!



The "sell" feature was designed to help prevent you losing all your money.

The key is in learning when to use it. 

Cheers,
GP


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## RichKid (19 May 2006)

ctp6360 said:
			
		

> My god guys if I'm going to lose all my money I at least want to enjoy the process, give me some good news!!!




The good news is there is usually a pullback, even in a dowtrend, so you can cut your losses there, the bad news is that if you don't use stops or have a plan it's of little use. If you're a long term buy and pray investor, it's time for praying...heheheh, just kidding. If it's any consolation I got stopped out of quite a few this week and last, so I've lost money too, this correction has some way to go imo....sell in May and go away.


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## wavepicker (19 May 2006)

Somehow I think think the 4800-4900 level is a touch too shallow a fall. I believe this last top was quite significant.

I am expecting this "correction????" to last much longer and fall much further than most pundits expect.


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## GreatPig (19 May 2006)

Closed exactly on my lower trend line today.

Monday will be interesting.

Cheers,
GP


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## GreatPig (26 May 2006)

Some interesting similarities between these two chart segments.

The XAO now, with today currently being back up around the high of yesterday:







The XAO in Oct 2005 as it bottomed out of the correction then:






Will history repeat? If so, a bit more downside to come, which will perhaps take it down to the 4800-4900 support area.

Cheers,
GP


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## markrmau (26 May 2006)

Bit late now, but check out the oscillator divergence with the XJO before the correction. Looks like it was giving us plenty of warning.


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## GreatPig (26 May 2006)

markrmau said:
			
		

> Bit late now, but check out the oscillator divergence with the XJO before the correction.



Actually I did notice that with the XAO before the correction started (even mentioned it in a message on another forum), but of course didn't act on the information .

Could have saved me a few bucks if I had.

Cheers,
GP


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## GreatPig (6 June 2006)

Starting to show signs of an uptrend again, but possibly constrained by the trend line above it as a resistance level.

The second chart shows another interesting point: for the gain since the Oct 2005 correction, the current correction dropped almost exactly to the 38.2% Fib level.

So is it really a new uptrend, or just some consolidation before heading on down towards 4600?

GP


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## Sean K (6 June 2006)

Does look like an uptrend occuring. This will only be sustained if the US sends us good news though. If not, then back to 4800 imo. 

The market is still reasonably priced RIGHT NOW. No need to go too far!


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## jet-r (7 June 2006)

It looks like the trend is broken? We might need to wait untill tomorrow to confirm it.

any chartist can tell us their point of view?


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## jet-r (13 June 2006)

time for an update


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## GreatPig (13 June 2006)

Might we have something more ominous happening?

If so, target downside would be around the trend line at 4600 - or more into the 4500s.

Cheers,
GP


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## RichKid (13 June 2006)

GreatPig said:
			
		

> Might we have something more ominous happening?
> 
> If so, target downside would be around the trend line at 4600 - or more into the 4500s.
> 
> ...




Doesn't look good but I'm not sure if H&S patterns have such a high reliability rate, especially if they're at an angle like this, does volume correspond? The worry is that various trendlines, including the neckline of the H&S has been broken. Eitherway, well spotted and yet another sign that this is still going South for the time being. Will be good to watch the RSI for divergence again, in case we are to rally to the recent highs.


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## grace (4 August 2011)

Thought I would bump this thread to provoke some opinions among the users of this site.

Plenty of brokers at the beginning of the year predicted 5500 on the all ords by the end of the year.  Looking a little optimistic at this point in time.

What do you think?  4200 looks inevitable to me within the short-term. 

I am interested to hear your thoughts.


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## LifeChoices (4 August 2011)

grace said:


> Thought I would bump this thread to provoke some opinions among the users of this site.
> 
> Plenty of brokers at the beginning of the year predicted 5500 on the all ords by the end of the year.  Looking a little optimistic at this point in time.
> 
> ...




I noticed lots of stupid triangles on the top of thread - why don't they use their own T/A thread to post them? If they renamed that thread - maybe this one needs to be called something else: XAO - dumb ass predictions or XAO - gut feelings

4200 does seem likely by the end of August early September - that's why my gut feeling says we will be around 4000 in late October.

Just noticed GreatPigs post from 2006 - I wonder if he is one of those freegans now - you know those people who get food out of bins.


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## skc (4 August 2011)

grace said:


> Thought I would bump this thread to provoke some opinions among the users of this site.
> 
> Plenty of brokers at the beginning of the year predicted 5500 on the all ords by the end of the year.  Looking a little optimistic at this point in time.
> 
> ...




We will get to 4200 tomorrow looking at what is happening tonight. And there will be no rally in the face of the employment figures tomorrow night for the US.

I don't really think those broker predictions are actual predictions. They simply take the average market preformance and pro rate it based on number of months left in the year...

Comsec issues these reports and I've never seen the end of year figure to be lower than the current.


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## kid hustlr (5 August 2011)

Could be ugly today. Anyone wanna shed some light on the situation for a newbie like myself?


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## RandR (5 August 2011)

kid hustlr said:


> Could be ugly today. Anyone wanna shed some light on the situation for a newbie like myself?




I'm not a very experienced stock investor ... but it's just a market correction that is imo for the ASX probably an undeserved one. Could be a very strong buying opportunity, but not just yet, do your own research and wait for the mess overseas to unravel, whilst readying your trigger finger to shoot up on any stock you feel becomes a bargain, thats what I am doing.

I value Jim Rogers opinion highly - http://www.businessinsider.com/jim-rogers-commodities-consolidates-2011-5


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## tech/a (5 August 2011)

Plenty on the technical XAO thread


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## nulla nulla (5 August 2011)

The xao will be disproportionately over sold today as foreign investment in our market sells out, taking advantage of the high Aud$ to minimise their losses and flee to the safety of...wait for it...the US$.  lol. 

Given the fact our market did not overinflate on the rebound from the gfc to the extent the djia did, we should only have a minor correction. Our economy and market is still strong and our exposure to overseas foreign debt has already been factored into our market.

However, rationale and logic will have no place in the panic that will unfold today. Our thoughts and prayers are with you, goodluck.


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## tech/a (5 August 2011)

Some levels going forward for the XJO
WEEKLY CHART

click to expand


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## Ves (5 August 2011)

tech/a said:


> Some levels going forward for the XJO
> WEEKLY CHART
> 
> click to expand



I only know the very basics of Elliot Wave (5 wave impulse, 3 wave ABC etc), but do you / can you associate any sort of rough probability with this sort of (long term) analysis?

I am actually very curious (rather than contrarian like most).


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## Garpal Gumnut (5 August 2011)

tech/a said:


> Some levels going forward for the XJO
> WEEKLY CHART
> 
> click to expand
> ...




Not the best for me, I go long or sell to cash.

The analysis is spot on though, from an EW perspective.

gg


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## skc (5 August 2011)

tech/a said:


> Some levels going forward for the XJO
> WEEKLY CHART
> 
> click to expand
> ...




Personally I don't think we will crash there... we will however probably bleed there over the next 2 years.


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## tech/a (5 August 2011)

Ves said:


> I only know the very basics of Elliot Wave (5 wave impulse, 3 wave ABC etc), but do you / can you associate any sort of rough probability with this sort of (long term) analysis?
> 
> I am actually very curious (rather than contrarian like most).




I find shorter timeframes months rather than years more accurate 
As the market is dynamic and ever changing so to are he wave counts.

Impulse waves and corrective waves occur with regularity.
Well that's my findings.


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## Ves (5 August 2011)

tech/a said:


> I find shorter timeframes months rather than years more accurate
> As the market is dynamic and ever changing so to are he wave counts.
> 
> Impulse waves and corrective waves occur with regularity.
> Well that's my findings.



Yup, sure. I have found with my very short readings of Elliott Wave that to be successful you have to be adaptive and willing to change your analysis. It is not an exact science or palm-reading device like most people expect.

I am not a big time trader or long termer for that matter, but I am trying to make the most of the little I have and anything I can garner from experienced investors / traders like yourself is gold.

Cheers.


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## joea (6 August 2011)

XJO data to 5/08/2011


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