# Interest Rates Wordwide



## noirua (11 January 2007)

The UK., Bank of England, raised interest rates from 5% to 5.25%, 40 minutes ago.


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## wayneL (12 January 2007)

noirua said:
			
		

> The UK., Bank of England, raised interest rates from 5% to 5.25%, 40 minutes ago.



LOL. A surprise attack from the B of E. :bigun2:

The almost unanimous consensus was no rise this year!!!!

The few hawks thought no rise till feb at least.

Perhaps the B of E is finally taking their remit seriously.  

Cheers


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## wayneL (12 January 2007)

0.25% is a big shock?

0.25% FFS!!!


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## It's Snake Pliskin (12 January 2007)

wayneL said:
			
		

> LOL. A surprise attack from the B of E. :bigun2:
> 
> The almost unanimous consensus was no rise this year!!!!
> 
> ...




Wayne nice usage of the smilies there! Are you against the rise or for it?


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## wayneL (12 January 2007)

It's Snake Pliskin said:
			
		

> Wayne nice usage of the smilies there! Are you against the rise or for it?



Mixed feelings Snake.

Economically for it... and much more after this.

But good people who have been sucked in by VI spin will get hurt. I feel for them.

I'm angry the RE bubble has been allowed to get out of control with rates kept artificially low for too long.


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## bvbfan (12 January 2007)

Wonder if it will have any impact on the election there?
Or at the English a little bit smarter?

Maybe Johnny can claim another rate rise by Labor Party :

It will be interesting to see the minutes from BOE, I hadn't expected it so wasn't watching FX at the time.

And now the jobs data here putting more pressure on Aussie rates too.


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## wayneL (12 January 2007)

bvbfan said:
			
		

> Wonder if it will have any impact on the election there?
> Or at the English a little bit smarter?



Yep and Nope.

Nulab are toast at the next election, especially with Crash Gordon at the helm. (This will be to the delight of Tony bLIAR)

But the Tories are by no means a shoe in... the result could surprise


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## tech/a (12 January 2007)

The inside info is that its punishment for a 5 zip loss in the ashes!!


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## wayneL (12 January 2007)

This has cause a bit of panic in the land of the poms it has.

The Sun is pleading with people to not panic!! Which of course will make people panic even more.

The UK bond markets were caught completely of guard.

We'll add the UK to the growing list of RE crash countries, shall we?


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## theasxgorilla (12 January 2007)

noirua said:
			
		

> The UK., Bank of England, raised interest rates from 5% to 5.25%, 40 minutes ago.




Seems like the city-folk can afford it...


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## theasxgorilla (12 January 2007)

wayneL said:
			
		

> We'll add the UK to the growing list of RE crash countries, shall we?




Just out of curiosity, which other countries are on the list?


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## theasxgorilla (13 January 2007)

An interesting read in response to the interest rate increase by BoE from Danske (Danish) Bank Reseach:

*Bank of England as role model?*
Economic developments in the UK are  for better or worse  an extreme version of developments in the western world over the past ten years. The UK has seen the greatest boom in house prices  especially in the major cities. The UK has undergone a substantial  and successful  de-industrialisation. And the UK has successfully liberalised its goods and labour markets, and been rewarded with a sustained upswing.
The UK is also in many ways ahead in cyclical trends. The Bank of England was already taking action back in 2004 to calm the wild housing market. In contrast to other central banks, the BoE has thus explicitly at-tempted to slow house price growth and this was why the UK saw a turnaround in the housing market al-ready back in 2005. The consensus at the time was that the bubble had burst, that the UK was the first country to wake up with a hangover after the housing party, and that the BoE would have to cut rates sharply.
If one accepts that the UK has been the vanguard in this upswing, it is noteworthy that the BoE is again tightening monetary policy. The collapse of the UK housing market never materialised, despite some heady prices. Instead, home prices underwent a soft landing in 2005-6 that has been overtaken by renewed house price appreciation in the past six months. The past weeks surprise rate hike to 5.25% is a reminder that the housing boom in the West is not a bubble, but rather a symptom of low borrowing costs and a strong labour market. The BoE hike is also a reminder that the slowdown in US housing is no guarantee that the US Federal Reserve is finished raising rates in this cycle.


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## Smurf1976 (13 January 2007)

Buying a relatively illiquid asset at roughly doubly it's historic average valuation underpinned by interest rates at historic lows would have to be one of the highest risk strategies around.

Another UK house price crash is underway in my opinion and I'm seeing exactly the same thing much closer to home too. Only question is how long it takes and to what extent general inflation masks the crash in prices.

Just think, I could have bought a nice little house down here in Tassie 3 years ago. Or I could now pay the exact same price and move one suburb closer to the city, get brick instead of weatherboard, a pool and 20% more house and land too. And with 90 day bank bills pointing to another rate rise soon in Australia, the bottom is unlikely to be found for some time yet.

But I do think the banks are waking up at last. Why else would there be property developers willing to pay *18%* to borrow money privately when banks charge half that rate? The only possible explanation is the banks are saying no...


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## YChromozome (13 January 2007)

theasxgorilla said:
			
		

> The UK has seen the greatest boom in house prices.




The frightening thing is I don't think Australia is much worse.

Based on OECD figures indexed to 1970, UK real house prices have increased to approximately 220. Australia's house prices over that same time has increased to about 190.

But real prices have little relevance, price to income ratios paint a better picture - if wages have risen enough to allow home owners to service the increased debt. Over the same time the price to income ratio of the UK has peaked about 150, while Australia peaked at 160 and interestingly has fallen a little. 

Also note these figures only paint a picture up to 2005.


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## YOUNG_TRADER (13 January 2007)

theasxgorilla said:
			
		

> If one accepts that the UK has been the vanguard in this upswing, it is noteworthy that the BoE is again tightening monetary policy. *The collapse of the UK housing market never materialised, despite some heady prices. Instead, home prices underwent a soft landing in 2005-6* that has been overtaken by renewed house price appreciation in the past six months. The past week’s surprise rate hike to 5.25% is a reminder that the housing boom in the West is not a bubble, but rather a symptom of low borrowing costs and a strong labour market. The BoE hike is also a reminder that the slowdown in US housing is no guarantee that the US Federal Reserve is finished raising rates in this cycle.




Strange, very similar to whats happned in Aust as an avg (ie pullbacks in Vic an NSW, growth in W.A, Qld and S.A. forget about N.T. and Tassie  

I reckon US will have soft landing as well, NEVER UNDERESTIMATE THE US CONSUMER!


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## YChromozome (13 January 2007)

YOUNG_TRADER said:
			
		

> NEVER UNDERESTIMATE THE US CONSUMER!




48 months interest free must run out one day . . .


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## noirua (22 February 2007)

Japanese mini rise in interest rates:  http://www.iht.com/articles/2007/02/21/business/yen.php


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## noirua (9 March 2007)

The European Union have raised interest rates from 3.5% to 3.75%, citing inflation pressures.


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## noirua (18 March 2007)

China has raised interest rates to 6.39% from 6.14%.


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## theasxgorilla (18 March 2007)

YChromozome said:
			
		

> 48 months interest free must run out one day . . .




Yeah, but imagine what the relative cost base will be after 48 months of _inflation_   Buy now, pay nothing for 48 months and get a 15% discount!


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## wayneL (20 March 2007)

Oz inflation outlook from the Daily Reckoning... Implications for interest rates in this country? They're certainly ticking up elsewhere.

http://www.dailyreckoning.com.au/inflation-2/2007/03/19/


> Australian Investors Should Accept Higher Inflation As A Medium Term Prospect
> Posted by Kris Sayce on Mar 19th, 2007
> 
> MELBOURNE AUSTRALIA (Daily Reckoning): Looking at the Friday to Friday performance of the All Ordinaries Index, one could be forgiven for thinking that not much had happened. All that there was to show for the week’s action was a tiny seven point gain.
> ...


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## theasxgorilla (20 March 2007)

Another .25 at the next meet is certainly on the cards...go AUD!


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## noirua (10 May 2007)

The UK have raised interest rates from 5.25% to 5.5% MLR (Minimum Lending Rate). These have been raised to curb inflation ( they have three rates of inflation as some things are included or excluded, the main rate is 3.1% and another that includes house mortgages is 4.8% ).

UK house prices rose 1.1% in April to an annual 10.9%. Central London prices rose 3.5% in April.


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## wayneL (10 May 2007)

noirua said:


> The UK have raised interest rates from 5.25% to 5.5% MLR (Minimum Lending Rate). These have been raised to curb inflation ( they have three rates of inflation as some things are included or excluded, the main rate is 3.1% and another that includes house mortgages is 4.8% ).
> 
> UK house prices rose 1.1% in April to an annual 10.9%. Central London prices rose 3.5% in April.



An aneamic response to the inflation monster asserting itself in the UK. They should have raised .5

Re House prices- The figures are skewed by London, which is on fire with Russian (Mafia?) money poring in. The rest of UK is mostly flat to down. FWIW


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## theasxgorilla (11 May 2007)

Swedish interest rates at 3.5%, expected to reach 4.0% by middle of 2008.  "Moderately expansionary" is the terminology used by the Dankse Bank analysts.


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## noirua (11 May 2007)

wayneL said:


> An aneamic response to the inflation monster asserting itself in the UK. They should have raised .5
> 
> Re House prices- The figures are skewed by London, which is on fire with Russian (Mafia?) money poring in. The rest of UK is mostly flat to down. FWIW





Hi, Except for Northern Ireland where house prices have risen 56% in the last 12 months and 62% in Belfast.


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## wayneL (11 May 2007)

noirua said:


> Hi, Except for Northern Ireland where house prices have risen 56% in the last 12 months and 62% in Belfast.



Yeah NI is berserk.... absolutely Ape doo-doo.


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## noirua (21 May 2007)

China has once again increased their one-year-bench-mark from 6.39% to 6.57% from Saturday next.


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## Ants (21 May 2007)

edit


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## Ants (21 May 2007)

> Quote:
> Originally Posted by noirua
> Hi, Except for Northern Ireland where house prices have risen 56% in the last 12 months and 62% in Belfast.
> 
> Yeah NI is berserk.... absolutely Ape doo-doo.




that is amazing, must of been dirt cheap to start with eh?


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## Uncle Festivus (21 May 2007)

theasxgorilla said:


> Just out of curiosity, which other countries are on the list?




Have a look at Spain, leading the pack DOWN, lot's of UK investors there too.


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## noirua (25 January 2008)

Interest rates and world growth are factors that seem to go together.  Are these World growth figure, given in October 2007, still valid after events in 2008. China has forecast growth in 2008 at 8.5% and this is against the IMF figure of 10%.

http://www.imf.org/external/pubs/ft/survey/so/2007/RES1017B.htm

In December it was noted that food prices are rising quickly throughout the World and the demand for biofuels in the main factor.  This is forcing many countries to raise interest rates: http://uk.reuters.com/article/reutersEdge/idUKADD75016920071207?sp=true


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## mullokintyre (28 September 2021)

Fresh from being one of the very first countries to stop all covid restrictions, Norway , courtesy of its central bank, has become  the first of the G10 nations  to increase its base interest rates since the beginning of the Covid pandemic.
From Au News


> Norway's central bank raised its benchmark interest rate on Thursday and said it expects to hike again in December, as it joins a short but growing list of nations moving away from emergency-level borrowing costs.
> 
> Norges Bank's monetary policy committee raised the sight deposit rate to 0.25% from a record low of zero,
> Oeystein Olsen told a news conference. "It's time to start a gradual normalisation of the policy rate."
> ...



Hmmm, does not sound as though the Norges CB thinks inflation is transitionary. 
Mick


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## Craton (28 September 2021)

mullokintyre said:


> Fresh from being one of the very first countries to stop all covid restrictions, Norway , courtesy of its central bank, has become  the first of the G10 nations  to increase its base interest rates since the beginning of the Covid pandemic.
> From Au News
> 
> Hmmm, does not sound as though the Norges CB thinks *inflation is transitionary*.
> Mick



*My bold*.
So according to the real estate focused GlobeSt.com, transitory inflation has three meanings/assumptions as per:



> “Transitory” inflation could mean one of three scenarios:
> 
> Prices rise and plunge
> Prices rise and stay where they are
> Prices rise and continue to rise, but more slowly




Not knowing the Norwegian economic psyche, my guess is that their CB is hedging a 3 way bet with the third scenario backed for the win. Haha, but what would I know?
I'm just a mug punter, lol.


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## mullokintyre (29 September 2021)

Was having a shot at US Fed's Powell suggesting that the 4.5% inflation that has been experienced in the US was only a temporary thing.
he will struggle to get much agreement in the financial world for that one.
Time will tell.
Mick


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## qldfrog (29 September 2021)

Craton said:


> *My bold*.
> So according to the real estate focused GlobeSt.com, transitory inflation has three meanings/assumptions as per:
> 
> 
> ...



I doubt Norway is bankrupt so they can afford a strong currency, pay back debt and sell petrol that every one wants and needs but does not want to be seen or invested near


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## noirua (15 April 2022)

Canada’s main stock index moved higher as bullion prices slipped on Thursday in a mild trading day ahead of a public holiday, as investors digest a batch of economic data. The Canadian dollar consolidated earlier gains following the Bank of Canada’s monetary policy meeting when it raised the overnight rate by 0.50% to 1.0%. Financials, industrials, and energy moved higher.


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## noirua (9 May 2022)




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## divs4ever (10 May 2022)

Sooo India has some chance of cooling inflation 

 just a shame i couldn't get better exposure to India than i have currently


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