# CVN - Carnarvon Energy



## yogi-in-oz (6 June 2006)

Hi folks,

CVN ... so much for the "oil experts" ... this
stock has not stopped ticking up, since they
were bagging it down at 2 cents !~!

We will be alert for more good news from CVN,
early next week, around 12-13 June 2006.

07-10 July 2006 and 01 August 2006 also looks
positive for CVN ..... 

Will be alert for a high, around 16-17 August 2006.

happy days

yogi


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## yogi-in-oz (12 June 2006)

Hi folks,

CVN ..... chart says it all ..... 

happy days

  yogi


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## yogi-in-oz (11 July 2006)

Hi folks,

CVN ..... and as per post on 5th June 2006 above,
positive news come in, right on time ..... 

	"Development Drilling Commences Wichian Buri Oilfield"

Today's report announced the start of 2 drilling
programmes, with a total of 26 wells, in 2006/2007.

CVN up 7.4%, today ..... 

happy days

  yogi


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## yogi-in-oz (31 July 2006)

Hi folks,

CVN ..... trading to the script so far,  as per post on
5th June 2006 above ..... 

"07-10 July 2006 and 01 August 2006 also looks
positive for CVN .....

Will be alert for a high, around 16-17 August 2006."

More positive news today, as another payzone was added 
to reserves, in the current well.

happy days

  yogi

P.S. ..... holding CVN


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## Basilisk (1 August 2006)

yogi-in-oz said:
			
		

> We will be alert for more good news from CVN,
> early next week, around 12-13 June 2006.
> 
> 07-10 July 2006 and 01 August 2006 also looks
> positive for CVN .....



I see they've requested a Trading Halt, looks like you might be right.


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## yogi-in-oz (10 September 2006)

Note for Joe: Chart for CVN would not load up on ASF.

Hi folks,

CVN  ... after refloating the old lugger, back in
May 2005, she has defied the "eggspurts"
and more than tripled in value, since then:

http://www.incrediblecharts.com/forums/messages/8/cvnupdate08092006-901714.pdf 

..... whilst the CVN chart above, shows us the
potential for a blowoff top over the coming months, 
it does not show the VERY positive time cycle, that
we expect to be in play for most of this week .....  

happy trading all

  yogi

P.S. ..... AZM, AZZ and NWE may be other stocks to watch
           over coming weeks, as well.

           Will also be alert for a HUGE positive week
           on the DOW this week ..... !~!



=====


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## ezyTrader (29 September 2006)

Sensational volume yesterday.
Would you have any updates, yogi?


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## Sean K (1 January 2007)

Was asked an opinion on the chart of CVN elsewhere. Here it is, but just my opinion of course. Happy for anyone else to comment or make any other assessment.....

Looks to be back on the up, but will find it hard to crack $0.09 ish. Then through $0.10/.105 highs. MACD turned on the up recently, so it has some momentum. Volume way off since that Sep/Oct excitement. Not much else really....


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## jtb (1 January 2007)

kennas said:
			
		

> Was asked an opinion on the chart of CVN elsewhere. Here it is, but just my opinion of course. Happy for anyone else to comment or make any other assessment.....
> 
> Looks to be back on the up, but will find it hard to crack $0.09 ish. Then through $0.10/.105 highs. MACD turned on the up recently, so it has some momentum. Volume way off since that Sep/Oct excitement. Not much else really....




Thanks mate, Hopefully the volume shouldn't be too far away  HNY


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## richardau1 (22 January 2007)

*CVN Carnarvon petroleum*

Oil well results appear positive - any ideas how far this could go?


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## Biggle (22 January 2007)

This is from a Dec 06 Fat Prophet Report on the CVN site,
"Wichian Buri contains upgraded 2P (proven and probable) oil reserves of 14.2 million barrels, of which Carnarvon's share is 5.7 million barrels. Ignoring the premium for control of the asset, this values Carnarvon's 40% stake in the field at US$81.1 million (A$104 million) - or 21.5 cents a share. This compares with Carnarvon's current market cap of $38 million and share price of around 8 cents."
Resistence today seems around the .105 .11 cent mark, if it breaks and stays above .12, things should be very good for cvn holders IMHO.


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## jtb (26 March 2007)

Support coming in for CVN lately 
Any Aussie Stockers thinking about the likes of HZN, PPP or FAR near term could do worse than have a look at CVN imo.
_Less diluted than the first two also_.
Funding issue has been resolved and a 'significant' (MD's quote) reserve upgrade due in April could be quite substantial. With the two new discoveries adding to the likely primary field upgrade also 
3D seismic coming and lots of holes to be drilled starting any day.
Technically looks as though 10.5 / 11c could be the new floor.
Hartleys valuation @ 20-40c (see CVN website or yesterdays Sunday Times)

DYOR 

Cheers


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## jtb (3 April 2007)

Can anybody breakdown the trades in this from yesterday afternoon please?

After yesterdays ann re: first hole of phase 2 we could be seeing a re-rating happening directly.
As the market seems to have been valueing CVN @ about $10 per bbl of WB field reserves the significant reserve upgrade due this month should be interesting .
As the reserve had only been calculated on the producing upper 'F' sand and  the succesful wells from phase 1 intercepted previously untapped G and H sands (below and in addition to the F sand) I would conservatively expect an increase in reserve from *6 to 12 *million barrels in th WB field alone.

This would equate to 20c per share @ $10 per bbl.

As the POE 6 and 9 discoveries are in separate fault blocks and 9 is presently producing from only one of the four intercepted zones, I can only speculate on the impact to reserves these will have: 

With the first hole of this phase 2 program targeting a separate fault again (that has already flowed >1000 bbl/day) than I can see significant upside.

CVN have stated a phase 2 program risked (25%) potential of 16million bbl and P50 of 32 million bbl (CVN share).
This is in addition to the reserve announcement mentioned above.
So conservatively we could be looking at reserves >25 million barrels.

Which would be around 40c per share again @ 10c per bbl: 

Please DYOR and have a good read of the recent investor presentation.
Have tried to attach the image showing the size of the structures but it's in B&W and looks RS


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## Lachlan6 (8 June 2007)

Amidst all the carnage today there are a few nice lookers. Especially (CVN) early in the day. Broken through resistance at 16c. But I will probably wait till end of day for entry, as has hit 61.8 fibonacci resistance from June 2006-April 2007 leg up, which is at $0.18. Notice the huge volume supporting the rise all this week, next target $0.22. Also supported by rising OBV.


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## jtb (8 June 2007)

Thought I better let it run by not picking it in this months stock comp
Good move on a rough day.........................


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## nizar (10 June 2007)

I think this one is gonna run big time.

Just broke into 7-8 year highs and was a strong close on volume on friday which was generally a weak day.

Had an exam on friday so didnt have time to pick up any but i will put an order in for tuesdays open, and then top up on the pullback.

Pullback if it even happens i cant see much downside below .16. Should bounce off this or maybe just an intraday tail before we are away again.

On the fundies side i hear they have 35 wells planned for this year, their hit rate so far 8 out of 10. Broker report valuations are between 40c-50c.

Just my opinion...


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## greggy (10 June 2007)

nizar said:


> I think this one is gonna run big time.
> 
> Just broke into 7-8 year highs and was a strong close on volume on friday which was generally a weak day.
> 
> ...



CVN still has great potential.  Their oil reserves continue to grow at a very good rate (success rate is 80% this year), yet CVN is still being undervalued by the market.  I first bought into CVN a while back around the 6c mark on the back of Fat Prophet's buy recomendation. I should have held on to my 1 million shares. Such is life.  But CVN had an excellent day on Friday considering all the red ink.  Good luck to existing shareholders.
DYOR


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## quarky (12 June 2007)

CVN is doing well.
glad i bought into it @ 0.16 and it's at 0.225 today

good rise, and previous mgmt decided to divest exploration acerage and invest in production field.
Unfortunately that all went pear shaped due to operator self combusting.

Current operator appears to know on how to operate and this maybe the last chance to pick up sub 20 cents.


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## money maker (12 June 2007)

Forget picking up sub 20c, will be struggling to pick them up sub 30c very soon.... 

Announcement due soon and will fly.Has been gaining momentum.ASX query re price sent out so that will be raising a few eyebrows bringing it to the attention of many more.


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## jtb (12 June 2007)

Well I got to admit this came a bit earlier than I expected and I offloaded most of mine today.
Have been holding for a 100mil market cap and @ 23c she looks fully priced for the moment. 
Still got my toe in the water.

Spewing I didn't pick her again in the june comp doh!


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## quarky (13 June 2007)

money maker said:


> Forget picking up sub 20c, will be struggling to pick them up sub 30c very soon....
> 
> Announcement due soon and will fly.Has been gaining momentum.ASX query re price sent out so that will be raising a few eyebrows bringing it to the attention of many more.




sounding confident
well, looking at the price today, i feel like i should have profit-taken and sold it yesterday. (would have made several thousand extra. )

hope there's some good announcements comin' up...


So Far, The Latest ASX Company Announcements
Latest Announcements for CARNARVON PETROLEUM LIMITEDDate	Time 		Code	Release
12/6/2007	14:55 PM		CVN	Response to ASX Query re Share Price
5/6/2007	09:36 AM		CVN	Good Oil Flow at Na Sanun 4
4/6/2007	10:07 AM		CVN	Operations Update Thailand
24/5/2007	10:12 AM		CVN	Operations Update - Na Sanun-4 Appraisal Well


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## Jeevers (17 June 2007)

I believe that CVN is undervalued given its production potential. You can't look at the charts 100% and say that its tanked (unless you were a day trader). 

The fact that it is producing oil is a great sign (with a flow rate>1000bopd).  Look at some others that have run hard such as NDO which has a potential of 4400bopd and has not produced oil yet - sorry in advance, don't mean to compare but it has run up on speculation big time - August/Sep is the month when it will have to show some results. 

The Capex CVN has to fund development costs is roughly $3.5M-$5M, which is a lot lower than some of the others. 37 wells - great hit rate chances of finding more oil. Flow rate is good given its 40% stake in interest in Phetchabun Basin and its capex. DYOR, but I think it is a buy and the valuation is about right.


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## Lachlan6 (17 June 2007)

This stock is not even close to tanking. I am so positive about this chart and am waiting for a small retracment to play out then a move to higher levels to scale in and buy more. We all have a tendency to get the wind up us if a stock stops going straight up, but notice that the last three days have all been inside days, a postive sign of accumulation. When it does retrace look for the $0.18 level as it is half the bullish candle of the 8th and is close to the previous resistance. All looking very nice at CVN.


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## Garpal Gumnut (17 June 2007)

Lachlan6 said:


> This stock is not even close to tanking. I am so positive about this chart and am waiting for a small retracment to play out then a move to higher levels to scale in and buy more. We all have a tendency to get the wind up us if a stock stops going straight up, but notice that the last three days have all been inside days, a postive sign of accumulation. When it does retrace look for the $0.18 level as it is half the bullish candle of the 8th and is close to the previous resistance. All looking very nice at CVN.




I am optimistic about CVN but question support at .18

It seems more likely it will find support if it does retrace at .16, a recent previous resistance level.

Garpal


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## Lachlan6 (17 June 2007)

Gday Garmal. One of the two doesnt really matter we never know for sure what a stock will do. $0.18 is a more short term bullish retracement and $0.16 is still fine.


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## Garpal Gumnut (17 June 2007)

Lachlan6 said:


> Gday Garmal. One of the two doesnt really matter we never know for sure what a stock will do. $0.18 is a more short term bullish retracement and $0.16 is still fine.




Only thing is it may may matter if one were thinking of adding to ones holding on a retracement.

Better to jump back in at 16/17 than 18/19.

Agree with your sentiments though.

Lets wait and see, if it increases in price and doesn't retrace we'll both be happy.

Garpal


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## money maker (25 June 2007)

Looking very good today...lets see how final price holds ...if it can stay at 25c then once ann comes, we will be looking very profitable (am very much in the green at the moment, the greener the better). :


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## quarky (26 June 2007)

yeah,...
i'll probably sell around the 0.26 mark.    profit take to offset some losses in Commander (CDR) and Sigma Pharmaceuticals (SIP).  tax time is soon. :

it should reach that figure before dropping a little.


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## alanding (3 July 2007)

it seems few of ASFers has interest in CVN. It drilled out lots of water. My buy trigger is activated. Hope CVN can do some work well in a few days.


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## Nasdaq (19 July 2007)

Announcement out today. Second rig is drilling and further results over the next three weeks. Let' hope for some good results. Hasn't done much since .28 on intraday a while back.


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## jtb (8 August 2007)

CVN looking like entering buy territory again, doesn't seem to want to fall to 12c.

Nizar you still watching this?


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## Pommiegranite (8 August 2007)

Well..I've been waiting a while..around 6 weeks..which is unbelievable patience for me!! Now I finally got my fill at 14c.

The fully diluted market cap is now below $100million.

Does anyone know when we can expect the next set of drill results?


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## jtb (13 August 2007)

Good news out this morning.
This field is looking to be very large 

http://aspect.comsec.com.au/asxdata/20070813/pdf/00747821.pdf


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## 1234 (5 September 2007)

Ann out, very good results..

Seems to be holding very well through a turbulent time in the market.. 

Expect new ann in a week or so.. 

"Carnarvon Petroleum Ltd (“Carnarvon”) is pleased to announce an increase in the tested flow rate from the NS3-D1 well which is now flowing at a stabilised rate of 434 barrels of oil per day (“bopd”). In addition, drilling operations are progressing on the L44-H and L44G-D1 wells. The L44-G well, completed in mid August following oil shows and lost circulation in the primary targeted volcanic section, is waiting on completion of drilling at L44G-D1 before flow testing operations can commence"

"On 27th August it was announced that NS3-D1 was flowing oil at a maximum rate of 337 bopd.
After installing a larger surface beam pump, NS3-D1 has been put back on production at a sustained, stabilised rate of approximately 434 bopd, with a minimal water cut varying between 0.2% and 0.47%, as the well continues in the final stage of cleanup. "

"The L44G-D1 appraisal well is located in the northernmost fault block of the Na Sanun East structure, at a location approximately 7.4 kms north of the NS3-D1 well. This well is being drilled as a deviated well from the same surface drilling pad as the previously drilled L44-G well, to intersect an interpreted updip part of the structure. Following the completion of the L44G-D1 well, both this and the L44-G well will be flow tested."


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## 1234 (7 September 2007)

nice .18 close - (highest in 6 weeks from a very steady stock) on the back of the last ann with good volume.

ann next week should see this tick nicely...


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## jtb (11 September 2007)

Nice action today again CVNer's.
Volcanics are looking to be the goods.................................


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## 1234 (11 September 2007)

jtb said:


> Nice action today again CVNer's.
> Volcanics are looking to be the goods.................................





Indeed.. indeed.

Can I qualify for my stock pick for September on countback?? lol.. 

Just happy it's ticking.. 

Curious as to the full potential of this stock, results from the bids placed earlier in the month should be due soon also, adding fuel to the fire.. ?


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## INORE (12 September 2007)

1234 said:


> Indeed.. indeed.
> 
> Can I qualify for my stock pick for September on countback?? lol..
> 
> ...




Hi 1234, what are these bids you talk about???  I beleive this stock has some  good potential as well....are there any monsoon seasons in thai that will affect the SP? Cheers.


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## 1234 (12 September 2007)

INORE said:


> Hi 1234, what are these bids you talk about???  I beleive this stock has some  good potential as well....are there any monsoon seasons in thai that will affect the SP? Cheers.




Heya mate. Check the CVN website and have a look at the ASX releases.

They have placed a bid for two new exploration permits. 

One around existing infrastructure, (onshore) in a known area.


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## krisbarry (16 September 2007)

Flow results due out this week, looking for a nice upgrade.  Going by previous flow results we saw an increase.

CVN curently have proven flow rates of 1400bpd, not bad going, and looks like more to come.

The chart indicates CVN has been in an upward trend since late Aug.


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## jtb (16 September 2007)

Stop_the_clock said:


> Flow results due out this week, looking for a nice upgrade.  Going by previous flow results we saw an increase.
> 
> CVN curently have proven flow rates of 1400bpd, not bad going, and looks like more to come.
> 
> The chart indicates CVN has been in an upward trend since late Aug.




Hey STC,

Yeah >500 bpd net to CVN has been a while coming hasn't it.
Took some profit Friday as the 140 mil MC keeps me wary atm due to the last un-expected resource downgrade. (although MC seems to have little to do with things these days EGO etc)

I see the 3 mil bbl net value being bandied around again so soon we'll be back to where I originally bought in (waiting for the resource upgrade).

Once we get up to the 2000bpd value then the present program will become self funding and hopefully that will come soon as another placement would push us too close to a billion shares for my liking and the present drawdown won't leave a lot for any 'outside' diversification.

You still in WGP?
Big article in the paper today re: the ROC farm in off Perth.


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## STEELPIG (19 September 2007)

The sun rises in the east sets in the west and currently The winds are blowing very strongly from the North and it smells of Oil, lots of Oil!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!:

2twocents


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## INORE (19 September 2007)

STEELPIG said:


> The sun rises in the east sets in the west and currently The winds are blowing very strongly from the North and it smells of Oil, lots of Oil!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!:
> 
> 2twocents




Hi steel Pig....do you know something that we dont steel pig?  Please let us in on your little secret...


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## wipz (19 September 2007)

STEELPIG said:


> The sun rises in the east sets in the west and currently The winds are blowing very strongly from the North and it smells of Oil, lots of Oil!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!:
> 
> 2twocents




hahaha nice one..... but IMO this has nothing to do with CVN 
Correct me if im wrong, because i'd love to see this baby grow up and make me some $$


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## Miner (19 September 2007)

I did not buy CVN even though my friendly broker advised me that he was following CVN and it was time to buy at 13 cents.
A good broker when follows a share for 6 months means something.

Sorry can not name the broker in this instance but my advise was in confidence in writing. But not every time a written advise comes right.

I got broker's written (different broker) advise on MTS, ANG, INES, SRK, SIP   - all went hell.

Regards


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## Garpal Gumnut (19 September 2007)

I've held CVN for many years hoping it will be another Woodside. I've contributed to all issues and am never surprised by its gyrations.

I enclose a weekly chart. 

If it breaks its previous highs and goes beyond 30c then retraces to 28c I'd be surprised if it doesn't keep on going. 

I enclose a weekly chart. Its moving up on higher volume and even the subprime drop was on relatively low volume.

Its not a stock for the fainthearted and on occasions I felt as if I were giving a donation to the board rather than buying issued shares.

Garpal


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## INORE (20 September 2007)

WOW any body seen this very good valuation by hartleys yet????


http://www.carnarvon.com.au/docs/Hartleys190907.pdf


Date
19 September 2007
ASX Code CVN
Share Price 21cps
*Valuation 32-71cps* 
Market Cap (fully diluted)
$138.1m ($142.9m)
Issued Capital (fully diluted)
657.5m shares (680.54m)
Cash (as at 30 June 2007)
$8.9m
Management
Peter Leonhardt (Chairman)
Ted Jacobson (Managing Director)
Top Two Shareholders
ANZ Nominees Limited (6.0%)
Hamilton Capital Partners Ltd (2.3%)
Resources Analyst
Michael Robinson
Ph: +61 8 9268 2826
michael_robinson@hartleys.com.au
Resources Analyst
Andrew Muir
Ph: +61 8 9268 3045
andrew_muir@hartleys.com.au
Carnarvon Petroleum Limited (“CVN”, “Carnarvon”, “Company”) has
continued to experience a high success rate in the development of the Na
Sanun East field in Thailand (CVN 40%) through its JV with Pan Orient
Energy (operator). The JV is enjoying a better than 50% commercial
success rate, which is significantly higher than initial expectations of a
33%. This moves the Company to the verge of self-funding status,
expected to be achieved in Q4 CY2007. The Na Sanun East field has
emerged as the JV’s most significant producer and is set to underpin the
Company’s success in coming years.
A recent site-visit highlighted that the JV’s Phetchabun Basin fields are
well located, being very close to transport and other infrastructure. The
operator is developing the field in an efficient manner to boost production
and minimise costs.
*We reaffirm our view that CVN is significantly undervalued based on our
32-71cps valuation range*, and believe that the Company will be re-rated
as it achieves self-funding status and expands its development, appraisal
and exploration activities. We rate Carnarvon Petroleum Limited as a
Speculative Buy.
Investment Highlights
• Na Sanun and Na Sanun East Success Continues – Carnarvon
has improved overall production from some 50bopd in 2006 to
current levels of ~1,400bopd from four fields in the Phetchabun
Basin, largely through successful drilling in the Na Sanun East field.
• Currently Testing Potential for Additional 1,000bopd –
Carnarvon is in the process of flow testing three wells in the Na
Sanun East field that are expected to deliver an additional
1,000bopd, essentially taking the Company to the point at which
ongoing drilling becomes self-funding.
• Ongoing Success Can Deliver Re-rating – CVN is on the cusp of
becoming a self funding producer. This will enable the Company to
expand its exploration and appraisal efforts from its own cashflow.
This is an important step in the development of the Company and we
believe that, in this context, CVN will be re-rated.
• Site Visit Confirms Strength of Operations – A recent site visit has
highlighted that the operator has developed optimized production and
haulage systems which will ensure that maximum value is attained
from the field.
• Bo Rang and Si Thep Exploration Upside – The JV has developed
significant drilling targets in the Bo Rang and Si Thep fields. These
fields have many similarities with the Na Sanun field, making them an
important part of the Company’s exploration upside.
• Valuation Updated To 32 – 71cps – We have updated our valuation
range for CVN based on a scenario analysis assuming similar
success as seen at Na Sanun East. No change has been made to
our valuation of Wichian Buri as the Company’s focus has switched
to Na Sanun. Further exploration success in other fields such as Bo
Rang and Si Thep would deliver additional upside to our valuation.
Carnarvon Petroleum Limited Speculative Buy
Na Sanun Delivers
Share Price Performance
CARNARVON PETROLEUM LIMITED (CVN)


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## jollyfrog (21 September 2007)

The buyers are SHURE lining up for CVN this morning!!
 Must be something to do with their new well, testing 1200 barrels a day or thereabouts?!
 Could this be the start of something BIG??


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## Sean K (21 September 2007)

jollyfrog said:


> The buyers are SHURE lining up for CVN this morning!!
> Must be something to do with their new well, testing 1200 barrels a day or thereabouts?!
> Could this be the start of something BIG??



I don't know about that. The match is .235 after a close of .225. Surplus on the ask.  

Let's not turn this thread hotcopperish....


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## Sean K (21 September 2007)

kennas said:


> I don't know about that. The match is .235 after a close of .225. Surplus on the ask.
> 
> Let's not turn this thread hotcopperish....



Hooly. I might have to eat my words here. Things certainly picked up in the last 10 mins. 

Let's still try to keep it real...


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## jtb (21 September 2007)

L44-H Appraisal Well
The L44-H well is located in the central lobe of the Na Sanun East (“NSE”) oil field,
approximately 3.25 kilometres north of the producing NS3-D1 well.
Well testing is continuing and a stable rate of 1,265 bbls/day has been achieved. The oil
is good quality at 35 degree API. A small amount of water is being produced varying
from 0.7% to 1.2% as the well continues to clean up and unloads the remainder of the
drilling fluids lost into the reservoir while drilling (“lost circulation”).
The well is free flowing on choke settings of 8/64 inch on the annulus and 17/64 inch on
the tubing. Flowing casing head pressure is 220 psi and flowing tubing head pressure is
280 psi indicating the well may be capable of oil production at even higher rates.
L44-H penetrated the top 14.5 meters of the target volcanic reservoir interval at a depth
of approximately 866 meters. Lost circulation (an indicator of good quality, fractured
reservoir) was encountered at three levels with total drilling fluid losses of more than
1,100 barrels. Electric logs indicated the best volcanic reservoir section yet encountered
in any well over the entire 14.5 meter thick volcanic interval. This has been confirmed by
the excellent oil flow rate.

Nice


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## jollyfrog (21 September 2007)

HEY KENNAS! I TOLD YOU SO! thanks for all your good posts, I always look forward to them.
 By the way I did ok with dio the dog!


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## lazyfish (21 September 2007)

Sigh the market sure is fast though. I was somewhat hoping this ann won't be announced so early this morning so I could pick up a few, but oh well. I even woke up early today  At the current production level 1000bpd net to CVN, @ AUD 60 profit (prolly a bit conservative), CVN nets around 21 Million, but after 50% Thailand company tax this is only around 10.5 Million. With 682 million shares (fully diluted) I think at this sp there's very little to take advantage of. I guess will have to wait.  going back to bed


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## 1234 (21 September 2007)

lazyfish said:


> going back to bed




.. no you're not.

You'll keep an eye on this and hope to hell you can pick some up before the second hop Monday.


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## INORE (21 September 2007)

I agree these guys are drilling "in the zone"...


_*Two more wells are to be tested with results expected in the next 2 to 3 weeks. Combined
with a continuous ongoing drilling programme of exploration, appraisal and development
wells, there should be plenty more excitement over the coming weeks and months.”
Yours faithfully
Carnarvon Petroleum Limited
RA Anderson
Company Secretary*_


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## 1234 (21 September 2007)

Massive day for this stock, huge volumes massive open ( 5+ year high).. didn't even look like correcting! Waiting for the second hop, for all the slow pokes to catch wind of it on Monday!! then it's go go go.

No idea where it will stop, or what it's worth. Blows the Hartley's valuation out of the water imo..

 MORE drill results coming in the next week, this little stock could be something else..

Now well into self funded operation with 2700bopd at present  +++


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## Garpal Gumnut (21 September 2007)

1234 said:


> Massive day for this stock, huge volumes massive open ( 5+ year high).. didn't even look like correcting! Waiting for the second hop, for all the slow pokes to catch wind of it on Monday!! then it's go go go.
> 
> No idea where it will stop, or what it's worth. Blows the Hartley's valuation out of the water imo..
> 
> ...




It still needs to penetrate the 30c mark

Chart enclosed.

Sorry to be such a contrarian but I've been in this stock since way before the first date on the chart and every year or two get asked for a donation much like Vinnies, although Vinnies work keeps on in an uptrend.

Garpal


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## 1234 (21 September 2007)

mm, but they've never had this much success before either. ( from one drill ) 

All the other green candles (June etc ) have been on flow rates ~1/3 the size.... 

Nothing previous compares to this latest find... or potential !


----------



## Garpal Gumnut (21 September 2007)

1234 said:


> mm, but they've never had this much success before either. ( from one drill )
> 
> All the other green candles (June etc ) have been on flow rates ~1/3 the size....
> 
> Nothing previous compares to this latest find... or potential !




Its a spinning top with a reasonable gap.

It didn't close at its high.

It may retrace to fill the gap.

Lets hope it doesn't

Garpal


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## resourcesman (22 September 2007)

its also the first time CVN has become self supporting
i think the market is ready to rerate it now as more than just a junior explorer....  maybe in the next week or so.......its derisked significantly because of this drill and because of it, its suddenly become more likely to go into full production sometime in the future

agree with gumnut, i hope it doesnt fill its gap in the next two weeks when i plan to offload a little


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## Garpal Gumnut (22 September 2007)

jtb said:


> L44-H Appraisal Well
> The L44-H well is located in the central lobe of the Na Sanun East (“NSE”) oil field,
> approximately 3.25 kilometres north of the producing NS3-D1 well.
> Well testing is continuing and a stable rate of 1,265 bbls/day has been achieved. The oil
> ...




Can somebody explain the significance lost circulation and fractured resevoir in the above report as I'm not up to speed on oil reports

Garpal


----------



## 1234 (22 September 2007)

resourcesman said:


> its also the first time CVN has become self supporting
> i think the market is ready to rerate it now as more than just a junior explorer....  maybe in the next week or so.......its derisked significantly because of this drill and because of it, its suddenly become more likely to go into full production sometime in the future
> 
> agree with gumnut, i hope it doesnt fill its gap in the next two weeks when i plan to offload a little




At least now, even with a plug and abandon the sp won't plunge. Remembering also we have ann's due in a week or so to fuel this along. 

Having a squiz at how POE backed up on the TSX last ngt.. Traded up to nearly $6, before settling down at ~$5.50, on a $5.80 open.... ( up~9% )

Not bad for a stock which opened @ ~$4.20 two days ago.

Supports my 'double high' theory, and that CVN will not pull back Monday after this JV gets re-evaluated on the fly..


----------



## 1234 (22 September 2007)

Garpal Gumnut said:


> Can somebody explain the significance lost circulation and fractured resevoir in the above report as I'm not up to speed on oil reports
> 
> Garpal




"A serious condition that occurs when drilling mud pumped into the well does not return to the surface, but goes into the porous formation, crevices, or caverns instead."

Basically, the more lost circulation, the bigger the 'hole/s' in the ground they've stumbled on/in..


----------



## resourcesman (22 September 2007)

1234 said:


> At least now, even with a plug and abandon the sp won't plunge. Remembering also we have ann's due in a week or so to fuel this along.
> 
> Having a squiz at how POE backed up on the TSX last ngt.. Traded up to nearly $6, before settling down at ~$5.50, on a $5.80 open.... ( up~9% )
> 
> ...




1234, good point about sp behaviour on a plug and abandon being different from now on

re TSX moves, it would have been nice if the sp had settled near intraday highs, rather than mid tho.... but cant complain


----------



## Garpal Gumnut (22 September 2007)

1234 said:


> "A serious condition that occurs when drilling mud pumped into the well does not return to the surface, but goes into the porous formation, crevices, or caverns instead."
> 
> Basically, the more lost circulation, the bigger the 'hole/s' in the ground they've stumbled on/in..




So is this good or bad. are the holes full of oil, or is it all crevices going nowhere.
Its all confusing to me . Any articles I can look up e.g.  reading oil reports or drilling for Dummies??

Garpal


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## 1234 (22 September 2007)

resourcesman said:


> 1234, good point about sp behaviour on a plug and abandon being different from now on
> 
> re TSX moves, it would have been nice if the sp had settled near intraday highs, rather than mid tho.... but cant complain




Not only will a plug and abandon not drop the backside out of the share, they won't have to issue any more shares for fund raising!. Double whammy.. 

The 'close above open' is a bit of an ask for CVN ( and POE ) when open was 30% above the previous day's trading!.
Consider the sp rose the week prior nicely, closing above open for three successive days, I'm rapt..

It nearly got there ( CVN), but a little sell ( the last trade for the day ) dropped it from .295  There was some big buying going on coming to close of trade..

Word will spread about CVN's efforts on Friday, and with the storm going through the Gulf of Mexico dropping 360,000 bopd out of worldwide production, oil $ is going up!

I'm tipping low 30's for Mondays' trade, with a hint of a mid 30's close?? US was kind to us overnight too.. Could even open higher than Fridays close, as POE did on the TSX?? 

I can't help but be taken back to forecast volumes. They uncapped 3x what they were expecting - from this one prospect, and on not one more result after this one, it's still undervalued @ 30c. The risk on this stock has diminished. No longer a true speculative imo. The only thing stopping the sp opening high will be traders wanting to load up some more, and have some large sell orders placed to scare off punters. I won't be too worried to see big sell orders placed a stupid prices Monday AM, only to be lifted just before open... ( there's 2mil sitting @ 30c now. ) 

Roll on next week..


----------



## resourcesman (22 September 2007)

Garpal Gumnut said:


> So is this good or bad. are the holes full of oil, or is it all crevices going nowhere.
> Its all confusing to me . Any articles I can look up e.g.  reading oil reports or drilling for Dummies??
> 
> Garpal




my logic says that it means that its full of holes and does not mean that its full of oil.... but when you combine it with oil shows (that tells u there is oil there), and that oil is above all these holes, then its likely that the hole is full of oil... i could be completely off tangent here

maybe a geologist can tell us how wrong i am


----------



## resourcesman (22 September 2007)

I just hope that the price goes high enough in a couple of weeks when I plan to offload a little to profit take... probably after L44G and L44G-d1.... probably another gusher, judging by the large amount of lost circulation on it being in the same ballpark as the other big wells.... didnt do so on friday for the reason you mentioned: its gonna take a little time for the market to realise this company 

CVN currently makes up more than 90% of my portfolio, and even tho im sure this is going places, I thought id better take some profits and pay off a loan haha

cheers mate


----------



## resourcesman (22 September 2007)

1234 said:


> I can't help but be taken back to forecast volumes. They uncapped 3x what they were expecting - from this one prospect, and on not one more result after this one, it's still undervalued @ 30c. The risk on this stock has diminished. No longer a true speculative imo. The only thing stopping the sp opening high will be traders wanting to load up some more, and have some large sell orders placed to scare off punters. I won't be too worried to see big sell orders placed a stupid prices Monday AM, only to be lifted just before open... ( there's 2mil sitting @ 30c now. )
> 
> Roll on next week..




The Hartley's mid-case 50% hit rate analysis doesnt take into account that the hit rate should increase with each well, as they understand it alot better..... less plugs needed... but its still too early to say

theres also the other prospects in the concessions that were not added to the value (for good reasons because there is too little known about them).....and the invaluable knowledge picked up by the company of the generally geology for their other concessions closeby (their recent bid for an onshore permit to the west)..... so plently of upside left


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## 1234 (23 September 2007)

Bit of a chart: re the potential of CVN.

Consider the following when viewing:

CVN needed ~2500 bopd to be self funding
They have ~2700 bopd currently, effectively now cash flow +'ve, and no need to issue more shares for fund raising.
They currently have a success rate in excess of 50%. Looking more like 75% with up to 3X bopd what was expected.
They should see nothing less than 3000bopd total in the next 14 days, maybe up to 3500?

CVN also have results from two more drills coming in the next 3-7 days. L44-G was flowing oil "Some weeks ago" but testing couldn't be completed because the L44G-D1 rig was being drilled next door.
NOW. 'some weeks ago', when reading ann's, means about 2. Have a look at the buying around September 11. Massive volumes considering the announcement had nothing in it except a hint of oil, but who knew how much??

They also have drilling underway with results due in 2-3 weeks from separate locations

The latest drill results not only nearly DOUBLED their bopd output, it took them to self funded status. They also opened at a five year high on Friday.

These results have fast tracked their exploration programme and they have two new permits to explore in the coming months, with 50% and 100% Operating profit from each..

Substantially De-risked, and moving into Broker territory I can see this holding a stable 50c within two months and pushing 40c on hype alone in the next week.. Next year who knows...


----------



## Garpal Gumnut (23 September 2007)

1234 said:


> Bit of a chart: re the potential of CVN.
> 
> Consider the following when viewing:
> 
> ...




Good to know.

As I said, its my Woodside and hopefully my kids and grandkids will hold CVN in the future and marvel at my "skills".

Garpal


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## michael_selway (23 September 2007)

"Bit of a chart: re the potential of CVN.

Consider the following when viewing:

CVN needed ~2500 bopd to be self funding
They have ~2700 bopd currently, effectively now cash flow +'ve, and no need to issue more shares for fund raising.
They currently have a success rate in excess of 50%. Looking more like 75% with up to 3X bopd what was expected.
They should see nothing less than 3000bopd total in the next 14 days, maybe up to 3500?"

Hi do you know what the mine life of CVN is?



thx

MS


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## resourcesman (23 September 2007)

Hi MichaelSelway,

You wouldn't happen to be an English teacher would you? I may have been one of your past students.

Hartley's reckons that oil could flow up until 2020, but with rates peaking at 11,000 BOPD around 2011. After that, it is expected to decline. This is only for the Na Sanun and Na Sanun East fields. At this point, however, I think its too early for them or anyone to make an accurate estimate as to the flow rates. 

You can take a look at the Hartley's reports on the carnarvon website


----------



## Pommiegranite (23 September 2007)

1234 said:


> Bit of a chart: re the potential of CVN.
> 
> Consider the following when viewing:
> 
> ...




Thanks for the chart 1234. 

I think predicting a SP is very very difficult to do at the moment for the following reasons:

1. So many more drills happening over the next few months, with results unknown.

2. Sole bidder for block in Phitsanulok Basin (most prolific onshore field in Thailand) - JV with Sun Resources - To be decided in October

3. Application for new blocks outside of Thailand and Australia. Aiming to be a global player perhaps?

More upside than downside...but how much upside and when is hard to tell.


----------



## 1234 (23 September 2007)

michael_selway said:


> Hi do you know what the mine life of CVN is?
> 
> 
> 
> ...




_Mine Life_.. They have declining production curves set up until 2020, that is for the one Basin in Thailand.

The other prospects in Thailand and Canning Basin etc are not inclusive in the forecast.

Each 'well' has a (predicted) life of 4-5 years according to the docs, (estimates) and current estimates have been given on each (successful) well flowing ~450bopd. - such is the significance of the latest flowing 1300bopd

They're drilling 100 wells in the next 12-18 months.. ( If only they all flow 1300bopd  ) 

With $9mil in the bank at present and turning cash flow +'ve, signs are looking good.. Maybe even a divvie !!


----------



## 1234 (24 September 2007)

Well waddya know. The big sell orders have left the building.

Will be interesting.. to say the least.


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## INORE (25 September 2007)

well by my calcs we should get an announcement today or tomorrow on testing being started on L44G-D1 and L44-G and  these results should be out by about the 2/10/07 or next tuesday(ish)...therefore people should be starting to jostle for a position this thurs/friday...


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## 1234 (25 September 2007)

INORE said:


> well by my calcs we should get an announcement today or tomorrow on testing being started on L44G-D1 and L44-G and  these results should be out by about the 2/10/07 or next tuesday(ish)...therefore people should be starting to jostle for a position this thurs/friday...




You're spot on I reckon.

Seems the buying has pumped 4 mil in the last 1 hr.

Up to 31.5c now.. seems to have settled down a squidge.

Keeping a close eye ont the email that's for sure!


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## INORE (25 September 2007)

Well cvn travelled nicely today on high volume and up almost 10%...still hoping that testing announcement out tomorrow. Are these guys normally punctual with what they say they are going to do???


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## 1234 (26 September 2007)

INORE said:


> Well cvn travelled nicely today on high volume and up almost 10%...still hoping that testing announcement out tomorrow. Are these guys normally punctual with what they say they are going to do???




The past couple of ann's have been very good from a projected date pov.

I had there last ann in Outlook to come out on Mon 24th sep, it was the one that came out last Friday 21st sep.. 

23rd of Aug ann, they said 4-5 weeks (because of the two drill situation). That takes us to any day this week...

They have already told us it's flowing, but test results couldn't be done.


*August 23rd - RE: L44G*
"_Flow testing on this well cannot commence until the recently spudded L44G-D1 well is complete and 
the Aztec Rig #14 has left location. Initial test results are not anticipated for 4 to 5 weeks._"
"_Significant oil and gas shows were reported throughout the entire well. 
Of particular note, free oil was observed over the shale shakers while drilling through the primary 
volcanic objective at 896 and 910 metres. Lost circulation, similar to that encountered while drilling the 
productive volcanic zones at POE-9 and NS-4, was encountered while drilling within the same primary 
target volcanic at 960 metres._"


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## INORE (26 September 2007)

yeah i was actually going on their latest announce to get dates...but looks like we are on the same page....i also liked the volcanic reservoir of allmost 200 meters on one area alone...!!! but i think as its deepest it wont be tested at this point in time....is that correct?

L44G-D1 Appraisal Well
L44G-D1 is located in the north fault block of the seismically defined Na Sanun East
structural closure, approximately 7.4 kilometres north of the producing NS3-D1 well and
585 metres northwest of the previously drilled L44-G well.
The L44G-D1 well is a deviated well that has now been drilled to a total measured depth
(“MD”) of 1,136 meters (907 meters true vertical depth (“TVD”))
The well encountered multiple *potential volcanic reservoirs* at 736-755, 771-804, 836-
850, 867-896 and *955-1,136 meters MD*. These intervals are in addition to the
approximately 80 meter thick volcanic zone encountered in the first logging run prior to
setting intermediate casing. Lost circulation (an indicator of good reservoir development)
of 17 bbls/hr was encountered at 867 meters MD and 53 bbls/hr at 1,112 meters MD.
Numerous oil shows and high mud gas readings were observed throughout the well.
*The well has been completed for well testing which is anticipated to commence within a
week.*
L44-G Appraisal Well
Drilling of the L44-G well was completed some weeks ago, but flow testing was delayed
while the drilling of the sidetrack well L44G-D1, from the same surface location, was in
progress due to the close proximity of the two well’s concrete cellars. This did not allow
access for a service rig or installation of surface facilities while the AZTEC #14 was
drilling on location.
Both wells are located within the large but as yet untested northern fault compartment of
the NSE structural closure.
As previously reported, lost circulation, an indicator of good reservoir quality, was
encountered within the volcanic section similar to the lost circulation in the other
successfully producing wells.
*Testing at L44-G well is anticipated to commence within the next week.*

taken from announcement 21/9/07


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## INORE (26 September 2007)

anyone care to analyse a CVN chart...besides the gap from the last announcement it looks quite strong to me.  Do the sales from June technically cancel out this gap?  Gotta love the high volume of the last 3 days at around the current SP.

Does anyone have an idea of their ops outside of thailand and when/if any announcements are due out in the near future?


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## resourcesman (26 September 2007)

im not a chartist, but FP just put out a report. They say that there is a high probability that the gap will not be filled, given the volumes and intensity.

I only know of their Carnarvon basin tenements in WA, but rightfully, no value has been attributed to them since nothing is yet known about any viability of these. Check their Good Oil presentation a few weeks ago for more info.

The next announcements are due in the next week or two for L44G and L44G-D1. L44G looked like its gonna be a good one too, but probably not as big as the 1265 one. Im guessing around 400-500bopd. Doctorj would be better able to make a guess; im no geologist.

The past announcement also said that L44G success could prove up significantly more reserves because of its distance from existing wells.


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## camaybay (26 September 2007)

I think it is unlikely that this gap up would be filled as is represents an increase in asset. There may be a small dwindling but with the closeness of flow testing of the other two complete holes, one which by reports has good prospects, the complacency drift will not develop. Carnarvon and future exploration does not add value. IMHO
DYOR
Cheers


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## tech/a (27 September 2007)

Hold this myself.Looking for a clear direction from this initial gap up.
I'm expecting the gap to be half filled to around 25c if this is the case I would on a confirmed strong move north add to the position.
Just what I will be doing not meant as trading advise.


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## 1234 (27 September 2007)

With POE going up a strong 4% overnight, solid buy orders coming in on CVN, I suspect a good day to low-mid 30's for CVN today ahead of ann tomorrow, and another surge.

This is what happened last time ( Last Friday ) !


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## Sean K (27 September 2007)

1234 said:


> With POE going up a strong 4% overnight, solid buy orders coming in on CVN, I suspect a good day to low-mid 30's for CVN today ahead of ann tomorrow, and another surge.
> 
> This is what happened last time ( Last Friday ) !



1234, can you please add more analysis to your predictions of 'surges' and the like. Otherwise the readership will just think that you are ramping, which will defeat the purpose of your posts. Thanks, kennas


----------



## 1234 (27 September 2007)

kennas said:


> 1234, can you please add more analysis to your predictions of 'surges' and the like. Otherwise the readership will just think that you are ramping, which will defeat the purpose of your posts. Thanks, kennas




Sorry bud, not intentional..

Generally, the market follows POE and it's performance on the Toronto Stock exchange the night prior.. It's also a good indicator of when an announcement *might * be made. ( POE saw nearly $6 last night, before settling ) 

As I 'predicted' ( not hard! ) a strong open today, with a high of .33 already.. 

Solid trades being made, and volume will be well up today. 

'Surge', meaning everybody will want to jump on for the rise in sp. Also got a mention on a few websites ( fat prophets ) stating a recommended 'buy'.


----------



## Sean K (27 September 2007)

1234 said:


> Sorry bud, not intentional..
> 
> Generally, the market follows POE and it's performance on the Toronto Stock exchange the night prior.. It's also a good indicator of when an announcement *might * be made. ( POE saw nearly $6 last night, before settling )
> 
> ...



Cheers, thanks for that. Nice to get a good response!  It's only up 10% though.....LOL  Good work. kennas.


----------



## 1234 (27 September 2007)

kennas said:


> Cheers, thanks for that. Nice to get a good response!  It's only up 10% though.....LOL  Good work. kennas.




Yes, 10% today. And 50% in a week 

My September stock pick, and is traveling at ~+80% this month ( If I was eligible  )

I also think it will finish above 100% for the month ( imo )


----------



## INORE (27 September 2007)

1234 said:


> Sorry bud, not intentional..
> 
> Generally, the market follows POE and it's performance on the Toronto Stock exchange the night prior.. It's also a good indicator of when an announcement *might * be made. ( POE saw nearly $6 last night, before settling )
> 
> ...




hi 1234,

Have u ever seen an announce from POE on the TSX that involves CVN that has come out before it comes out on the ASX?

Are you able/is it possible to post a chart that compares POE with CVN?....say over the past 4 weeks???

ps. i dont think that CVN are going to announce that testing has started on the next two holes, i think they will just post any test results, hopefully next week.


----------



## 1234 (28 September 2007)

INORE said:


> hi 1234,
> 
> Have u ever seen an announce from POE on the TSX that involves CVN that has come out before it comes out on the ASX?
> 
> ...




CVN use POE's releases on Thailand results!! Nothing changes, except 'POE' is replaced with 'CVN'

I will atempt to plot the two, ( I have thought of that aswell ) very similar though..


----------



## Riles (29 September 2007)

INORE said:


> hi 1234,
> 
> Have u ever seen an announce from POE on the TSX that involves CVN that has come out before it comes out on the ASX?




Hi Inore and CVN'ers

The ann's regarding POE first appear here
http://www.marketwirecanada.com

Type in POE in the search and you get the latest news - usually released overnight our time and submitted to ASX the next morning. 
Don't think you can jump the queue though - I heard about the last well flows the night before and put a buy order in at 25c hoping to get some before the news broke here but missed out when it opened at 28!

Still it's handy to keep an eye on if you're up late and can't wait for the next exciting release (Say Monday night perhaps??)

Now I have a question regarding this excerpt from TJ...


"We now have three producing wells flowing oil on the upfaulted Na Sanun East Field and one producing well flowing oil in the downfaulted Na Sanun Field," Chief Executive Ted Jacobson said.

"This is a great result, bearing in mind that we are only flow testing one of the *four potential volcanic zones *intersected in the wells."

Can someone explain this more clearly?
Does it mean each well has intersected 4 zones at different depths?

Every time I read their ann's I find another snippet that gets me thinking more excitedly. Can't wait to see how L44G & L44G-D1 come in. We know there's some oil there, and I'm not really expecting another 1200bbls plus, but I can't help but think that anything commercial here and one could start to conclude that the whole NS East field is possibly interconnected from north to south.

IMHO only, but at least one can dream!
Guess we'll find out more soon...


----------



## INORE (2 October 2007)

re latest ASX announcement App3B....is this an options issue at 10c each to Hartleys???  this is only worth $250k....they have cash in bank....why would CVN do this??? or have i got it all wrong?


----------



## wipz (2 October 2007)

INORE said:


> re latest ASX announcement App3B....is this an options issue at 10c each to Hartleys???  this is only worth $250k....they have cash in bank....why would CVN do this??? or have i got it all wrong?




How did you know who it was to INORE?? Are you guessing?
You'd start to wonder if it was considering the awesome broker report Hartleys released a few weeks back..


----------



## INORE (2 October 2007)

wipz said:


> How did you know who it was to INORE?? Are you guessing?
> You'd start to wonder if it was considering the awesome broker report Hartleys released a few weeks back..




well i just presumed it cos when CVN emailed me there latest ASX announce it came with a PDF which is titled 'App3B_HartleysOptions_02-10-07.pdf'
perhaps they are just some sought of fascilitator????


----------



## wipz (2 October 2007)

I dont know much about this and im probably totally wrong but based on your calculations of the value of the options, thats alot of coin if it was for payment of the report, and one might think that they are paying a premium for an extraordinary write up??... Maybe they're saving their cash and issuing options to pay for some other expense entirely, I have no idea......
Maybe Hartleys is doing something for CVN right now that costs alot of $$$ and for some reason want to keep their cash??? Merger perhaps???
Its interesting non the less


----------



## MS+Tradesim (2 October 2007)

It was the conversion of 2,500,000 options at a strike price of 10c into fully paid ordinary shares, not a new issue of options.

Item 6 on the appendix:

"Issue of shares on exercise of unlisted 10 cent
options exercisable on or before 31 March 2009"


----------



## 1234 (2 October 2007)

Interesting $500k get's bought up in the last minutes of trade yesterday, now this + and the ann is 'overdue' - going on there +'ve track record.

POE has also seen good volumes, and has finished above $6 last night 

Is something brewing? Can anyone elaborate a touch more on what it all may mean ( From a technical standpoint )


Cheers.


----------



## greenfs (2 October 2007)

If you look at the chart is sure looks pretty damn healthy to me (not enough characters for 100 letters)


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## Garpal Gumnut (2 October 2007)

1234 said:


> Interesting $500k get's bought up in the last minutes of trade yesterday, now this + and the ann is 'overdue' - going on there +'ve track record.
> 
> POE has also seen good volumes, and has finished above $6 last night
> 
> ...




I'll post 3 charts on CVN a monthly , weekly and daily, in candlestick format.

The monthly looks good with a nice uptrend on rising volume

The weekly shows a slowing in demand with last week ending on a pullback to  .315 on lower volume than the previous week and this week too early to call. so it looks as if there is indecision. 

The daily is a bit more concerning. That gap I mentioned in a previous post sticks out, and may close over. Todays bar is what I call a spinner, a doji, it opened and closed at .33 and found resistance at .335 on falling volume. I guess if I were a short term trader which I'm not , I'd consider a stop at .28 , which is an old resistance point in June. I'd then re-enter in the gap. 

Long term traders would probably stay in at present.

Garpal


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## 1234 (2 October 2007)

Cheers Garpal.

The one thing I keep coming back to is this: The company/s have reached a level of production and success that eclipses both speculated and 'assumed' forecasts to date. 

If the company had reached the current sp _without _the 1265bopd discovery @ L44-H I would agree, a ~.28/.29 pullback would be imminent. However, the fact that 1265 took the co to a level of self funded operation combined with the prospect of positive tests from L44G-D1 + L44G and further results from L44-H, everything seems to point in another direction.

I can see a slight gap back as punters become anxious and poke there $ elsewhere short term but also think the volumes will return in the afternoon on each day of trade. The downside to POE is 'we' can't catch the market napping. Everyone has to consolidate at the end of each day imo so they don't get caught like on the 21st.

Reading back over the recent ann's, we could be waiting a further week or ten days for any type of results to be released but I'm sure when they do, it will forge a new direction for CVN.


----------



## jtb (2 October 2007)

Gotta agree with Garpal here.

If you go back to when I was posting on this at 10c, the expected upgrade (which actually saw the resource slashed due to modern methods) from 4mmbbl to (my extrapolation) of 10 ish mmbbl was worth around 20c (100 mill MC) a share assuming $10 a bbl in ground.
We have since blown out the 450 million FPO on issue to 680 and despite the excellent results, the last stated reserve value was still only 3 mill bbl.

Assuming the original CVN announced total possible upside for the *entire* WB field *and* new volcanic structures of 25million odd bbl's then at present we are nearly *fully valued *for this 25 million bbl figure

More than 8 times the stated reserve.

Volcanics by definition are upthrust and busted ar$se ground so you can't just go 5km by 3km and come up with a figure like you can with a anticline.

I hope she goes to 50c (I reckon Ted would sell out to POE for that) but atm I'm out and recommend some caution with over enthusiasm as she's a bit ahead of herself at present imo.

About the middle of the gap is what I reckon presents value atm.

Cheers all


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## resourcesman (2 October 2007)

"Assuming the original CVN announced total possible upside for the entire WB field and new volcanic structures of 25million odd bbl's then at present we are nearly fully valued for this 25 million bbl figure"

JTB, you valued it using a $10 NPV per assumed barrel. If you assumed $20 NPV per barrel, which also wouldn't be over the top, you would get double that figure. 

Agree with most of your other points, particularly in regards to the uncertainty of the volcanics, but that would have been taken into account when estimating reserves. There are also the other zones that havent yet been included


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## tech/a (3 October 2007)

It takes a lot of volume to blast a stock through resistance with a gap that big.
Climbing price on lower volume shows lack of supply.
Seems pretty close to ending its wave 3.


----------



## jtb (3 October 2007)

resourcesman said:


> "Assuming the original CVN announced total possible upside for the entire WB field and new volcanic structures of 25million odd bbl's then at present we are nearly fully valued for this 25 million bbl figure"
> 
> JTB, you valued it using a $10 NPV per assumed barrel. If you assumed $20 NPV per barrel, which also wouldn't be over the top, you would get double that figure.




G'day mate,

Yes definately- but $10 a bbl for oil that *hasn't* been proved up yet is about as far as I personally would go at present.

Definately a lot of upside is possible in reserves but imo a lot has already been costed in.

She'll be valued at more than ARQ & TAP shortly.

Cheers


----------



## 1234 (3 October 2007)

Don't know about anyone else, but I'm miffed at the _value _of the latest Hartleys' rls out today??

What was the point of that?, apart from pointing out the bleeding obvious, anyone with half an interest in CVN is following the anns' - which have the same information contained.

They re-iterate there opinion 32-72 is undervalued, but they don't tell us *what* THEY believe the true value to be, based on current data??

The only upside; Last time Hartley's placed something to that effect it was followed two days later by a 30% increase in sp on a +'ve ann. 

Is this a ploy to make Hartleys' look good and place credibility on there opinions, recommendations and valuations?


----------



## INORE (4 October 2007)

Hi 1234...yeah i just took it at as a revision to their last statement and that now CVN is self funding and earlier than expected where as b4 they valued them only if they became self funding.  what i dont get is the huge range in valuation they give, i think they should have broken that down a bit more with a few if's and when's....perhaps CVN asked Hartleys to revise their evaluation report as it was done so recently and it may be some time b4 another key milestone is reached.


----------



## Garpal Gumnut (5 October 2007)

INORE said:


> Hi 1234...yeah i just took it at as a revision to their last statement and that now CVN is self funding and earlier than expected where as b4 they valued them only if they became self funding.  what i dont get is the huge range in valuation they give, i think they should have broken that down a bit more with a few if's and when's....perhaps CVN asked Hartleys to revise their evaluation report as it was done so recently and it may be some time b4 another key milestone is reached.




CVN seems to be holding its gains. I'll post some charts later tonight or over the weekend. Any more news on its fundamentals? 

gg


----------



## resourcesman (7 October 2007)

looks as if POE management sound pretty confident about L44G and L44G-D1, based on what they said in their 2 Oct presentation. Something along the lines of "best oil shows encountered yet"... wasn't that what CVN said last time about the last well??


----------



## 1234 (8 October 2007)

Currently trading at 37c. !!

I must say i'm a touch suprised by the amount of activity today.. 

Wondering if it will pull back at end of day?? and where to..


----------



## Caliente (8 October 2007)

hi 1234. Doubt it will fall back. The key trading zone today is the 37/37.5 level. 

What you're seeing is speculative accumulation on the back of a promising (readositive) upcoming announcement. 

I've been watching the buying closely since Friday and there are significant parcels of new money coming into play here. 

Watch this space - this week.


----------



## INORE (8 October 2007)

hope this doesnt come across too rampesque, but, i've been thinking about the eval that hartleys put on between 30-70c...and i beleive as the status of being self funding has been achieved that this share may/should comfortably get to the mid-point of this evaluation which is around 50c.  Any thoughts?


----------



## 1234 (8 October 2007)

INORE said:


> hope this doesnt come across too rampesque, but, i've been thinking about the eval that hartleys put on between 30-70c...and i beleive as the status of being self funding has been achieved that this share may/should comfortably get to the mid-point of this evaluation which is around 50c.  Any thoughts?




( I'm thinking out loud here )

The Valuation is proportional to the amount of black stuff pumping from the ground, ( and imo ) combined with it's potential..

32c was based on now ( back then ) and 72c was based on 10,000 bopd in a couple of years. ( check the chart from Hartley's ) The range was based on a certain success rate, with certain flow & reserves in a cetain time frame.. 

Consider the now has gone up 80% ( in bopd terms ) been brought forward 4 months, and the vol has gone up ( potentially ) 30% then the Val could well be up 30% on the now ( 41.5c ) and that's back then.. ( following me ) 

BUT untill we get figures, reserves and 6 months down the track, who knows??


----------



## MS+Tradesim (8 October 2007)

resourcesman said:


> looks as if POE management sound pretty confident about L44G and L44G-D1, based on what they said in their 2 Oct presentation. Something along the lines of "best oil shows encountered yet"... wasn't that what CVN said last time about the last well??





Hello resourceman...wondered if you could post a link to where you heard/read what POE presented. Went looking but couldn't find anything.


EDIT: Nah, skip that request. Found it.


----------



## Caliente (8 October 2007)

care to share ^_^
**************************
****wasting characters*******
**************************


----------



## 1234 (8 October 2007)

Caliente said:


> care to share ^_^
> **************************
> ****wasting characters*******
> **************************




www.carnarvon.com.au

sep 11 ann made mention of potential ( lost circulation ) but no indication as to 'best yet'. The levels were however, comparable to L44 ( 53 bbl's an hr, L44 was 57 bbl's an hr )

Either way, it's flowing oil

Drill would have been finished, and an indication of oil flow would have been known around Sep 14 ( according their ann ) for L44G-D1. SP made good gains in these days..


----------



## resourcesman (9 October 2007)

1234 said:


> www.carnarvon.com.au
> 
> sep 11 ann made mention of potential ( lost circulation ) but no indication as to 'best yet'. The levels were however, comparable to L44 ( 53 bbl's an hr, L44 was 57 bbl's an hr )
> 
> ...




come on, man, 1234, im not a ramper....... i was just occupied at work and only got home a short time ago........ heres the link ... around 5-10mins into it (forgot exactly where) there he talks about L44G and L44G-D1 having the best oil shows yet...... looks like good days for us all...enjoy!!

http://remotecontrol.jetstreammedia.com/14021


----------



## 1234 (9 October 2007)

resourcesman said:


> come on, man, 1234, im not a ramper....... i was just occupied at work and only got home a short time ago........ heres the link ...
> http://remotecontrol.jetstreammedia.com/14021




Gotta be careful 'round here, and I couldn't find it!!. Just covering ur back  

What's with the TSX 2ngt??


----------



## resourcesman (9 October 2007)

lol just playing with u ...... i think its thanksgiving holiday so no TSX today.... too lazy to confirm tho


----------



## MS+Tradesim (9 October 2007)

Just confirming what resourceman said. In the above-linked presentation at about 19:45mins the guy does say that in L44G(-D1) wells they have encountered the most significant oil and gas shows of any drilled to date in the concession.


----------



## jtb (9 October 2007)

MS+Tradesim said:


> Just confirming what resourceman said. In the above-linked presentation at about 19:45mins the guy does say that in L44G(-D1) wells they have encountered the most significant oil and gas shows of any drilled to date in the concession.




Is it me or does L44G D1 sound a bit tight?

http://aspect.comsec.com.au/asxdata/20071009/pdf/00767789.pdf


----------



## MS+Tradesim (9 October 2007)

Yes, announcement was a bit of a let-down, doesn't sound like the flow rates will be great. Still, that cleared the speculators out on open. Results yet to come. Also NS8-D1 looks promising, and NS2-D1 shaping up nicely too. Both commented on as being extremely fractured and permeable. Will be holding for a while yet.


----------



## resourcesman (9 October 2007)

looks like oil flow is gonna be a while yet...next well, hopefully... guess that also confirms what JTB said about the riskiness of fractured volcanics: even if theres oil, it still might not flow.....


----------



## adobee (9 October 2007)

I came across CVN only recently and thought I had missed the boat yesterday.. Where do people feel resistance will be folllowing todays announcement.. ?


----------



## 1234 (9 October 2007)

adobee said:


> I came across CVN only recently and thought I had missed the boat yesterday.. Where do people feel resistance will be folllowing todays announcement.. ?




It's holding it's own at 32c imo. Which just happens to be the level just below where the speculators jumped on board in the last couple of days.. 

The way I read the ann, there is still another zone to be tested?? 

"have been perforated and flow tested over 4 and 3 intervals,
respectively. Preliminary testing results indicate an oil and gas charged system with tight, low permeability reservoir, with the exception of the lowest tested interval in the structurally lowest well (L44-G) that tested approximately 200 barrels per day of water"


----------



## gfresh (9 October 2007)

I have a stop on 30c. Short term support may be 32c, but look at the large gap from 22c to 28c. May well crash through that if hits 28c.


----------



## 1234 (9 October 2007)

It seems POE learned from CVN's mistake and released a 'different' slant on the same info..

"CALGARY, ALBERTA--(Marketwire - Oct. 9, 2007) - Pan Orient Energy Corp. (TSX VENTUREOE) -

NOT FOR DISSEMINATION TO U.S. NEWSWIRE SERVICES OR FOR DISSEMINATION IN THE UNITED STATES.

L44G-D1 and L44-G Appraisal Wells (60% WI & Operator)

Pan Orient Energy Corp.'s Na Sanun East ("NSE") oil field appraisal wells L44G-D1 and L44-G, both in the northern fault compartment of the NSE oil field, *have been perforated over 5 and 3 intervals, respectively. Preliminary testing results indicate an oil and gas charged system with the exception of the lowermost tested interval in the structurally lowest well (L44-G) that tested water.
*
*The second interval tested on L44G-D1 flowed minor amounts of oil, approximately 3-4 barrels, with no indications of water. The first, the structurally lowest interval, tested was tight with no influx of any kind. Three additional zones have been perforated, above the interval that flowed minor oil, with testing to start within 24 hours. Results will be announced shortly.*
*
These are the first two wells drilled into the northern fault compartment, which is at an early stage of development. Five more wells are planned on locations for which Thailand government approval is anticipated later this month. All new locations will be targeted utilizing the newly acquired 3D seismic data that completed processing two weeks ago. Management remains confident in the overall production and reserves potential of the NSE oil discovery."
*


Spin doctors'..  !! I like..


----------



## jtb (10 October 2007)

POE's ann certainly reads a bit better doesn't it

Just had a look at the TSX (seeing as I'm awake anyway) and their down a bit too.

Dow looks good though.


----------



## Bushrat (10 October 2007)

Yes..I prefer to read the POE announcement, but between the lines it is the same result. POE closed down 8.8% on reasonably light volume. Interestingly it opened down only 1.3%, not 11% down like CVN did yesterday, I guess that can be attributed to the timing of the announcement.


----------



## resourcesman (10 October 2007)

dont know if it could be considered light volume.... arent POE shares usually only thinly traded anyway?


----------



## 1234 (17 October 2007)

POE closed up nearly 6% overnight gaining 36c.

I also came accross an article last night where pOE is tipped to get to $10 based on it's Thai exploration alone.. 

Will post a link later..


----------



## INORE (17 October 2007)

1234 said:


> POE closed up nearly 6% overnight gaining 36c.
> 
> I also came accross an article last night where pOE is tipped to get to $10 based on it's Thai exploration alone..
> 
> Will post a link later..




thanks 1234 but is this rise in POE directly attributable to their JV with CVN?  would be nice to get that link too....cheers


----------



## 1234 (18 October 2007)

*NS8-D1 FLOWS 1500bopd!!!!!!!!!!!!!!*

Gents, it's ANOTHER GUSHER!!!!

Out on TSX just now!!!!



Pan Orient Energy Corp.'s (TSX VENTUREOE) recently drilled Na Sanun East ("NSE") oil field development well NS8-D1 is on production at a rate of *1,480 barrels of oil per day* ("bopd") of 35 degree API crude. There is an additional average 7% drilling mud content that is decreasing (currently 3.8%) as the well continues to clean up and unload some of the 3,262 barrels of drilling mud lost into the target volcanic reservoir during drilling operations. The well is free flowing on choke settings of 25/64 inch on the annulus and 48/64 inch on the tubing. Flowing casing head pressure is 190 psi and flowing tubing head pressure is 80 psi.


NS8-D1 is a deviated development well, drilled to a true vertical depth ("TVD") of 886 meters, within the southern fault compartment of the NSE oil field between the POE-9 and NS3-D1 wells. The target volcanic reservoir was encountered at a depth of approximately 859 meters TVD penetrating approximately 31 meters (measured thickness) of reservoir section prior to the termination of drilling due to the severity of drilling mud losses into this extremely fractured and permeable volcanic reservoir.


These test results demonstrate high deliverability within the southern fault compartment that is similar to that encountered at L44-H, located in the central fault compartment. These results also validate the current seismic interpretation correlating 3D seismic attributes with volcanic reservoir quality.


NS2-D1 Development Well (60% WI & Operator)


Well NS2-D1 was a deviated development well that was drilled to 865 meters TVD and is 452 meters north of the NS8-D1 well detailed above. The target volcanic reservoir was encountered at an approximate depth of 807 meters TVD at what is mapped on seismic as near the structurally highest point of the southern fault compartment. Severe lost circulation was encountered while drilling through the approximately 78 meters (measured thickness) of target volcanic reservoir with mud losses totaling approximately 7,690 bbls at rates of 120 to 300 bbls/hr.


Testing is anticipated to commence within the next 48 hours with results anticipated within 7 days.


L44G-D1 Appraisal Well (60% WI & Operator)


NSE oil field appraisal well L44G-D1 is on production from perforations between 558 to 621 meters TVD at an average rate of approximately 50 bopd of 37 degree API crude after initial flush production at rates of 100-200 bopd. These early stage results represent the first oil production from the north fault compartment of the NSE field.


L44G-D1 is a deviated appraisal well that encountered multiple potential volcanic reservoirs, two of which have been proven oil bearing and the remainder tight at this location, with low permeability. These test results confirm the hydrocarbon potential of a fairway that is a minimum 7.5 kilometers in length (north-south) and whose maximum extent is still unconstrained by a defined oil/water contact to the north and south as well as to the east. This well was drilled on pre-existing 2D seismic, whereas future follow-up drilling in the northern fault compartment will be targeted on the basis of a recently acquired 3D seismic survey.


NS5-D1 Appraisal Well (60% WI & Operator)


The Aztec #14 is currently rigging up on deviated appraisal well NS5-D1, located within the central fault compartment of the NSE structural closure, 400 meters south of L44-H. Drilling is anticipated to commence in 48 hours and take 14 to 21 days to completion. This will be the second well drilled into NSE's central fault compartment.


NS6-D1 Development Well (60% WI & Operator)


The Aztec #7 rig is currently setting surface casing on deviated development well NS6-D1, located within the south fault compartment of the NSE structural closure approximately 430 meters north of the original POE-9 discovery well. Drilling is anticipated to take 14 to 21 days to completion.


Summary


Thailand production continues to increase at rates beyond management's original expectations. Current concession gross production of approximately 4,000 bopd (2,400 bopd net to Pan Orient) exceeds the Company's original 2007 exit target of 2,000 bopd net. At least 6 more development and appraisal wells will be drilled prior to year end, in addition to the NS2-D1 well which is about to start testing. A review of the requirement for a third drilling rig will be undertaken by the partnership over the next two months.


On Pan Orient's 100% owned, onshore Thailand L53 concession, a large 3D seismic program is now complete over this highly prospective acreage. Management expects a multi-well drilling program to commence in Q2 2008.


Pan Orient is a Calgary, Alberta based oil and gas exploration and production company with operations currently located onshore Thailand and in Western Canada.


This news release contains forward-looking information. Forward-looking information is generally identifiable by the terminology used, such as "expect", "believe", "estimate", "should", "anticipate" and "potential" or other similar wording. Forward-looking information in this news release includes, but is not limited to, references to: well drilling programs and drilling plans, estimates of reserves and potentially recoverable resources, and information on future production and project start-ups. By their very nature, the forward-looking statements contained in this news release require Pan Orient and its management to make assumptions that may not materialize or that may not be accurate. The forward-looking information contained in this news release is subject to known and unknown risks and uncertainties and other factors, which could cause actual results, expectations, achievements or performance to differ materially, including without limitation: imprecision of reserve estimates and estimates of recoverable quantities of oil, changes in project schedules, operating and reservoir performance, the effects of weather and climate change, the results of exploration and development drilling and related activities, demand for oil and gas, commercial negotiations, other technical and economic factors or revisions and other factors, many of which are beyond the control of Pan Orient. Although Pan Orient believes that the expectations reflected in its forward-looking statements are reasonable, it can give no assurances that the expectations of any forward-looking statements will prove to be correct.


(Listed on the TSX Venture Exchange - Symbol "POE" - 41,634,842 common shares issued)


----------



## resourcesman (18 October 2007)

lol.... man CVN is really making us alot of money.... too bad i got rid of 10% of my holdings yesterday in case it didnt come out well today..... either way im still happy... totally free carried!!


----------



## 1234 (18 October 2007)

resourcesman said:


> lol.... man CVN is really making us alot of money.... too bad i got rid of 10% of my holdings yesterday in case it didnt come out well today..... either way im still happy... totally free carried!!




You don't know how close I came to doing the same thing!!

damn this is good.

Based on the last ann of 1265 it should see 50c in the near future.

We still have ANOTHER drill result coming in the next week or so!!


----------



## Sean K (19 October 2007)

1234 said:


> I also came accross an article last night where pOE is tipped to get to $10 based on it's Thai exploration alone..
> 
> Will post a link later..



Where's the link 1234? 



1234 said:


> Based on the last ann of 1265 it should see 50c in the near future.



Can you also please provide some more info on what 1265 is to get a 50c target. 

Thanks.


----------



## 1234 (19 October 2007)

kennas said:


> Where's the link 1234?
> 
> Can you also please provide some more info on what 1265 is to get a 50c target.
> 
> Thanks.




Direct link http://www.stockhouse.ca/bullboards...r=O&StartID=15766694&StartDateTime=2007-10-09

Text;

PAN ORIENT ENERGY (V-POE) $6.16 -0.06
As well as Oilexco hitting new highs yesterday, Pan Orient
was flirting with new highs as well. Most of the investing/
speculating public hasn’t followed this story at all and the company
operates mainly in India/Indonesia *but it’s prime discovery
is off-shore Thailand and it looks like it’s turning out to be a
rather sizeable one.*
Very few analysts are following it except for Warren Verbonac
of Octagon Capital Corp., and the other day we talked to
*Peter Hudson of Sprott Asset Management who gave the firm a
lot of coverage when he picked it as one of his three favorites
on BNN back on September 20th. When we talked to him, he
suggested he wouldn’t be surprised if this story couldn’t go
considerably and he wouldn’t be surprised as well to see a
$10 target down the road.*
One thing about stories such as Oilexco and Pan Orient,
they’re not in Alberta, and right now with everyone wondering
what the resolution will be with the Royalty Reviews,
suddenly people are realizing there are other basins in the
world they might have to concentrate on.
One problem with the review in Alberta is if suggestions
are implemented, one agency suggests that Alberta goes
from being the 11th most rewarding basin to be exploring
in and could move it as low as 44 and suddenly there would
be other areas of the world the speculator would have to
become familiar with. *Offshore Thailand obviously could
become one of them.*



More to come


----------



## 1234 (19 October 2007)

kennas said:


> Where's the link 1234?
> 
> Can you also please provide some more info on what 1265 is to get a 50c target.
> 
> Thanks.




last ann 1265bopd resulted in a sp increase of 34%

Tomorrow, a 1500bopd result, should in effect result in 'atleast' a 30% sp increase given the substantial volume. conservative estimate.


The company was valued at 32-72c given set production and success rates..

This latest total production volume was not forecast as coming into line until *Jun '08. * 

Closing at a conservative 35.5c today ( once bitten from last week ) will see an open of +40c.

We have another well choked at 50bopd

Another well is being tested, results in 1 week.

I see no reason why this cannot be trading at 50c next week. The potential of this field is* Immense!!!!*


----------



## Caliente (19 October 2007)

Why does everyone keep forgetting to mention L44G-D1!!!

This little "*duster*" from the announcement that left us a little shy last week has come through to produce *100-200bopd of API-37* (light sweet crude ala Brent).


----------



## Bushrat (19 October 2007)

CVN's going to come out the blocks pretty hard and fast....buyers lining up, chomping through the sell side....wonder when CVN will get the announcement to the ASX


----------



## jtb (19 October 2007)

Bushrat said:


> CVN's going to come out the blocks pretty hard and fast....buyers lining up, chomping through the sell side....wonder when CVN will get the announcement to the ASX




Certainly is Bushrat, excellent news though so a lot of people will be happy - looking like a 40c open at the moment


----------



## MS+Tradesim (20 October 2007)

Monday will be very interesting in light of POE from Friday. Intra-day high of $8.86 and closed at $8.80. TSX Comp. fell 2.3% and TSX-V fell 1.22% yet POE rose 12.82%.

http://www.tsx.com/HttpController?G...ehome&Language=en&QuoteSymbol_1=poe&x=11&y=14

POE and CVN charts look VERY similar over last 3mths so here's hoping CVN bucks the XAO on Monday to close on or near a new high.


----------



## Bushrat (20 October 2007)

I was just looking at that myself, and when you compare CVN to POE over the past week, CVN is 20% behind, and I cant see anything else driving POE at the moment apart from news out of Thailand...exciting times ahead for CVN holders in coming weeks/months...


----------



## Sley (20 October 2007)

Just out of interest are there many people on here holding CVN for the long term or are a majority traders?


----------



## Caliente (21 October 2007)

Should push nicely mateys. 

CVN is showing some major lag now vs POE, which I might traded fantastically vs the TSX/DOW carnage on friday (see the 1-day below for 19/10/07).

I don't think its a stretch to call for a soiree with 50 cents in the near future...


----------



## chewy (21 October 2007)

Sley said:


> Just out of interest are there many people on here holding CVN for the long term or are a majority traders?




I hold for the long term. These guys can afford to drill like crazy now and are getting excellent results . Oil is only going to get more expensive in the long term too.  (note - i am a noob investor though so I'm not talking from experience!).


----------



## Garpal Gumnut (21 October 2007)

chewy said:


> I hold for the long term. These guys can afford to drill like crazy now and are getting excellent results . Oil is only going to get more expensive in the long term too.  (note - i am a noob investor though so I'm not talking from experience!).




I'm a long term holder. Its a bit like being on a bull at a campdraft at present with the price gapping up and up. I see no reason to sell at this point in time. The gaps and large ranges on high volume make me think that the big funds are getting on board now. Chart enclosed. 

gg


----------



## 1234 (21 October 2007)

I'm long term also. Foundations have been set now. With the volume of trade on Friday combined with the bopd results from the latest ann, I think we should fare well in the bumpy ride that will be this week. Any drop in sp will be snaffled up pretty quickly imo. 

Hardest hit this week will be those that rose on speculation - not results. 

IMO confidence will be back up for the run to the next ann, let's all hope she flows as good as the last few..


----------



## INORE (23 October 2007)

i see in the annual report that their planned drilling will be around 1.5 wells drilled every fortnite....this is going to be a great trip in 2008...i got some more stock yesterday as i too beleive that 50c wont be too far away...


----------



## 1234 (24 October 2007)

kennas said:


> Where's the link 1234?




POE Closed $9.30 last night.

Didn't take long!!!.

$9 was a bit of a resistance, but traded well regardless..


----------



## 1234 (24 October 2007)

Latest test results out on Marketwire.

WOWSER... 

http://www.marketwirecanada.com/mw/rel_ca.jsp?id=784277


Pan Orient Energy Corp.-Thailand: NS2-D1 Tests At 1,920 bopd

CALGARY, ALBERTA--(Marketwire - Oct. 24, 2007) -

NOT FOR DISSEMINATION TO U.S. NEWSWIRE SERVICES OR FOR DISSEMINATION IN THE UNITED STATES.

NS2-D1 Development Well (60% WI & Operator)

Pan Orient Energy Corp.'s (TSX VENTUREOE) recently drilled Na Sanun East ("NSE") oil field development well NS2-D1 has tested at a maximum rate of 1,920 barrels per day ("bopd") of 35 degree API crude in addition to an average 3% BS&W that is decreasing as the well continues to clean up and unload some of the 7,690 barrels of drilling fluid lost into the target volcanic reservoir during drilling operations. The well was free flowed on a choke setting of 32/64 inch on the annulus and shut-in on the tubing. Flowing casing head pressure is 260 psi and shut in tubing head pressure is 250 psi. Pressure data at various choke settings suggests the well is capable of production at rates much higher than 1,920 bopd.


----------



## wipz (24 October 2007)

Hahahahaha bet those suckers who sold it down thisarvo will be kicking themselves,,    i love CVN!! 
What is next, NS5 and NS6?? another 1,900 bpd perhaps ??


----------



## resourcesman (24 October 2007)

i topped up today (after selling my AAR shares) looking for a quick flip trade.... looks like the announcement came out before i could sell it lol!! fortunately for that
WWWOOOOOOOHOOOOOOOOOOO

this is now 100% of my portfolio not including a little in cash that i need to pay my bills

Ted is the man!!


----------



## 1234 (24 October 2007)

Gentlemen, it's been a pleasure 

Feeling great for Carpal right now.. His motives are to be congratulated.. 

Holders and believers are to be congratulated for there commitment..

To those traders who sold the stock down today. BAHAHAHAHAHAHAH 

Roll on CVN and the clean, clear, blue skies.. 

6000bopd, 2400bopd nett to CVN.

POE revalued to $14.00 - Kennas, YES, I will provide the link.. Hopefully BEFORE POE reaches $14. lol....


----------



## wipz (24 October 2007)

You know what, I was doubting CVN but this JV with pan orient has been the best thing ever to happen to CVN.. The future looks bright and this has made me so happy as i've had very bad luck with the oilers!! go CVN you beauty!!


----------



## 1234 (25 October 2007)

Indicative open is sitting @ 0.495c 

Should do well today. Opening on a record high, up 15% on yesterdays close at that level.

6 more wells to be drilled before December.. 37 more next year. This is only the beginning of the drill programme! 

In 4 wells they have produced ~50% volume of there estimated 3-4 year 100 well drilling programme!!


----------



## INORE (25 October 2007)

1234 said:


> ( I'm thinking out loud here )
> 
> The Valuation is proportional to the amount of black stuff pumping from the ground, ( and imo ) combined with it's potential..
> 
> ...




1234...care to update this statement based on the latest info...i expect a few more people sitting up and taking notice now.


----------



## patrick (25 October 2007)

Great day for carnarvon up 15% at close sold the majority of my shares today at 51c after buying in at 39.5c earlier this week.

Still holding some of my shares and might look at getting back in as i feel there is more to come from this little oil producer.


----------



## INORE (25 October 2007)

so was anyone surprised to see that POE only went up 3.23% at the end of the day of the announcement of NS2D1?

They did have some pretty good gains just b4 the announce....do they have a leak?  Will their market surge tonight?

saw this link on HC, thanks to red...

_*Have to provide an email address, then click on Pan Orient in the afternoon sessions:
http://www.newswire.ca/en/webcast/viewEvent.cgi?eventID=2020700*_

interesting webcast from POE from this morning.


----------



## INORE (26 October 2007)

anyone see the business section in the west australian newspaper today...it had a bit on CVN saying that Fat Prophets consider CVn a Hold...it says things like

'CVN's work in thai oilfields has exceeded even our most optimistic expectations'

'we continue to see further upside potential'

'we anticipate a continuation above 48c to new all time highs'
*
'fat prophets says cvn is worth around 77c a share'*


----------



## money maker (26 October 2007)

certainly did inore

dont worry,sit and wait,news is just starting to flow , just like the oil is. People will jump on board soon enough.It just cant be ignored.

My perspective, am holding LONG term. This will be making me ALOT of money. Next results due out around 10 Nov (around then) on results from the other holes. 

Just keep topping up on days like today and you are laughing.


----------



## cgf (29 October 2007)

> 'CVN's work in thai oilfields has exceeded even our most optimistic expectations'
> 
> 'we continue to see further upside potential'
> 
> ...




Ive held CVN since 2002. The decision to get Ted Jacobson on board in late 2005 was the start of what will be a really bright future for shareholders. As Ted said at the AGM (last year) he sees more potential in CVN than he did at TAP oil, which for a guy with his massive oil experience is saying a hell of a lot. Looking at the scope of the 3D seismic work and Teds great understanding (of their ever increasing targets) there is great potential for this field to become very substantial. 







> *Pressure data at various choke settings suggests the well is capable of production at rates much higher than 1,920 bopd.*



I keep picking up stock because I really do feel "Fat Prophets" and "Hartleys" will be increasing their valuations of 70+cents to indicate the real future potential of CVN as they continue to increase reserves. Why anyone would be selling mystifies me especially considering their stunning success in 2007 with 6 more wells to come. They are also considering more rigs and at least 37 wells to be completed in 2008. 

Success of the whole 2007 drill program continues to be just the start for CVN's future growth.
Well done CVN.


----------



## resourcesman (29 October 2007)

hi CGF, i was wondering what made you hold CVN for so long when it was going nowhere? were you sitting on a loss, or there was something fundamentally promising about the stock at the time?


----------



## cgf (29 October 2007)

resourcesman said:


> hi CGF, i was wondering what made you hold CVN for so long when it was going nowhere? were you sitting on a loss, or there was something fundamentally promising about the stock at the time?



At the time the fundamentals of a small aussie oil exploration stock for next to nothing appealed. The reason I choose CVN was the promise of dumping what was a totally incompetent board and getting a team in there that could turn it around. 

As it turned out I admit it took much longer than I originally thought it would take. But it was always going to be a long term stock that I locked into all our family members super fund holdings. Originally I bought them for next to nothing so the reality was I had little to loose, however its my long held belief that you don't invest in long term company "build ups" if you need the money (as they don't always work out). 

All of which is why when you get a success story like CVN you reap extremely big rewards. The thing with CVN is they haven't even scratched the surface of the whats in Thailand (its got massive potential). Also doing exploration out of cashflow has (up to this point) been relatively slow, but thats not going to be an issue with 4000bopd++. With the already extremely low production costs (inc drilling costs of about US$500,000 per well) Ted has stated that although finding more oil is the big target they are working hard to improve all areas of operational costs. Gaining more knowledge of the areas geology is vital, which is why the new 3D seismic work is a big key to targeting "Well positions". Remember the L44G-D1 and L44-G Appraisal Wells where not targets based on the new 3D seismic work and flows are only from one of the zones in the producing wells. The AGM is coming up in late Nov so it will be exciting times for CVN to tell us about. I continue to pick up CVN stock (as finances allow) because they are well undervalued. The reserves will be the key to waking people up about how well CVN is traveling.


----------



## resourcesman (29 October 2007)

you are obviously very knowledgeable about CVN and its good to have on board someone who has kept track of its progress since years ago.... im 100% invested in this, but im looking to offload some soon (otherwise i wont have cash for my upcoming CVN-funded holiday!). I didn't realise that Ted made favourable comparisons for CVN above TAP, thanks for that. 

They keep mentioning that they are producing out of only one zone. Would be interesting for someone to ask Ted in the AGM why they do not start testing out the other zones, because if one of those was oily, that could really put a rocket under the shareprice!


----------



## INORE (29 October 2007)

can anyone else see the 1000000 sell order that went thru at .485?  but it says the low price today is at 49c....and i never saw 1000000 sells at .485c anyway...   I use e-trade...does that explain anything???  
yep its still there...perhaps its a cross trade...but i thought they only took place after the market closed...

was that u selling resourceman for your holiday?  that will be some holiday at $485000.


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## resourcesman (29 October 2007)

hahaha Inore, I wish I had that many.... only have 190k shares... and just looking to sell 10k-20k of them..... i didn't see how many went thru, but i did see 48.5 at one point today


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## cgf (29 October 2007)

resourcesman said:


> They keep mentioning that they are producing out of only one zone. Would be interesting for someone to ask Ted in the AGM why they do not start testing out the other zones, because if one of those was oily, that could really put a rocket under the shareprice!



I will be asking this at the AGM, but I imagine its to do with time/expense along with getting a better feeling for the geology of the target/success areas. At this build up of stage of the stock I guess its better to get them producing income than to delay things to test every zone. They pretty much clean up the hole during testing and put it straight into production which is great for instant cashflow. 

Their costs are so negligible that at US$90 per barrel its amazing profit very quickly. Ted did say at the last AGM that the geology has been the tricky thing to get a handle on. Of course their strike rate is still running very good which means they are certainly getting a good handle on things.

Nothing wrong with a fully funded CVN holiday.


----------



## MS+Tradesim (29 October 2007)

INORE said:


> can anyone else see the 1000000 sell order that went thru at .485?  but it says the low price today is at 49c....and i never saw 1000000 sells at .485c anyway...   I use e-trade...does that explain anything???
> yep its still there...perhaps its a cross trade...but i thought they only took place after the market closed...
> 
> was that u selling resourceman for your holiday?  that will be some holiday at $485000.




It was an off-market trade. Directly after it there was a small sell of about 20-25k shares but after that it went back up.


----------



## wipz (29 October 2007)

Jeez, how old are you guys, at 23 i can only afford 10,000 
got 8,000 more today, so i am officially broke.


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## cgf (29 October 2007)

resourcesman said:


> you are obviously very knowledgeable about CVN and its good to have on board someone who has kept track of its progress since years ago.... im 100% invested in this



CVN pre 2005 is not even close to the same company without boat anchors like Len.


> can anyone else see the 1000000 sell order that went thru at .485?



The shares marked XT are off market transfers so ignore the pricing. I do XTs if I want it swapped between my super funds or family members.


----------



## Rob 17 (29 October 2007)

Hi

I have been watching this stock for a while and bought in when the SP was 30 cents.  I have kept topping up as the share price has reached .50cents. I did my own research and faith in the management and future prospects. I feel the CVN story has not reached people yet. Hopefully the next two results are postive than the stock will attract plenty of attention in my opinion. It is tightly held so if the fund managers like it, even better. 

I have always found fellow posters info informative. I wish everyone all the best! 

PS
I trade with comsec.                                                                            I too saw the trade 1,000,000  at .485   (time 15.18.52) 
The condition on comsec pro trader was XTOS

XT  = crossed trade
OS = overseas

always do you own research ![/COLOR][/COLOR][/COLOR]
Robbie


----------



## cgf (30 October 2007)

More success with the 6 wells this year will only be topped by the reserve announcement. At .50c its very hard not to see the fund managers stepping in to gobble up CVN stock. If they can get some decent hits up to the north the stock will be in very high demand and priced accordingly. Meeting some stockholders at the AGM (some of whom have been in the oil game for as long as Ted) I asked the question of what made them buy CVN and the answer was always that Ted is such one of the best in the oil biz (a smart well respected operator) who will put CVN into another league.


----------



## MS+Tradesim (30 October 2007)

Well, I'd like to see some big buyers step in today. There is no buying demand and it has been dumping since open.


----------



## Rob 17 (30 October 2007)

Stock normally picks up a bit after lunch. I bought some more at .48. Nows not the time to get nervous. 

It may come down a bit more if the Dow dips tomorrowbut Ill be sticking solid.

DYOR


----------



## MS+Tradesim (30 October 2007)

Nah, not nervous. Just waiting for a clear bottom and then upwards to buy more. Waiting on bigger buyers than me to soak up the selling pressure. I would rather buy on the way back up then try and pick the low.


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## cgf (30 October 2007)

Even though the US was up, the Oz market is down with only one of my stocks up. Still its very funny how so many investors think the skys falling and sell. I love these days as its my pickup time. 

When the US housing fallout saw CVN fall in Aug I picked up a heap at 11.5c which was great because these people where just panicing and selling, while us long term guys loaded up. Day traders are like horse punters most have little idea on what they are investing in and so panic if anything changes. 

Understanding all aspects of a company gives you the confidence about your investment. So many investors are speculators who are just jumping in and out of bed with the next moving stock. I prefer a good operation with a future not guesswork with no understanding of what you are buying into.


----------



## Rob 17 (30 October 2007)

All things going well we should get an operations update on NS5-D1 & NS6-D1
soon.

DYOR................Do you  own research


----------



## wipz (30 October 2007)

POE is going strong at $9.95, in my mind no reason why CVN should be sold down at this stage. NS5 and NS6 results expected later this week, will be topping up my holding while price is down. 

POE Shares on issue 41,634,842 @ $9.95 gives market cap of roughly 410million.  Vs CVN currently at 310mil. Seems reasonable considering the 60-40% interest in thailand JV.

Cheers


----------



## 1234 (31 October 2007)

I too topped up today @ 48.5.
Bargain price considering value and potential.

A week should see us back to where we should be.

No panic, just anticipation......


----------



## adobee (31 October 2007)

Is CVN in a trading halt ? 
My comsec shows shares are traded then stop 47c offer and purchase but nothing moving but no trading halt announcement ?

Can someone up to date on oil terminology explain if the announcement is postive or not really anything new  ?"


----------



## camaybay (31 October 2007)

adobee said:


> Is CVN in a trading halt ?
> My comsec shows shares are traded then stop 47c offer and purchase but nothing moving but no trading halt announcement ?
> 
> Can someone up to date on oil terminology explain if the announcement is postive or not really anything new  ?"





QuotesMarket DepthCarnarvon Petroleum Limited (CVN) 
(Trading Status: OPEN) 
As at 31/10/2007 11:06:26 AM 

   Last 10 Trades
Time Price Quantity 
11:06:28 AM 0.490 3,428 
11:06:17 AM 0.490 151 
11:06:09 AM 0.490 6,421 
11:05:34 AM 0.490 8,340 
11:05:33 AM 0.490 12,200 
11:05:33 AM 0.490 13,039 
11:05:32 AM 0.490 50,000 
11:05:31 AM 0.490 50,000 
11:05:25 AM 0.490 150,000 
11:05:00 AM 0.490 15,000 





Still trading


----------



## chewy (31 October 2007)

1234 said:


> I too topped up today @ 48.5




Me too - decided to cull some dead wood that has been in the red for weeks. Taken a small loss on it and put it into CVN instead - should see it back into profits in no time.


----------



## Out Too Soon (31 October 2007)

I've put in a small order @ 39c thinking they might drop on friday before taking off next week. I'm sick of buying thru' the week only to find a better bargain could have been had friday morn. It doesn't always happen but I've noticed it often enough.
Good luck to all who hold, I know of gas being drilled in the Gulf of Siam for many years, good to see Thailand (my 2nd home) has oil. Chok Dee!


----------



## cgf (1 November 2007)

chewy said:


> Me too - decided to cull some dead wood that has been in the red for weeks. Taken a small loss on it and put it into CVN instead - should see it back into profits in no time.



Great day for picking up the stock very cheap. Got a total of 150000 @ 0.47 which is money in the bank


> POE Shares on issue 41,634,842 @ $9.95 gives market cap of roughly 410million. Vs CVN currently at 310mil. Seems reasonable considering the 60-40% interest in thailand JV.



CVN might be highlighted (reliant) on that JV at the moment, but as TJ has said we have so many other good prospects (both known and in the negotiation stage). Such development will be based on potential and as CVNs finances/time allows. With the money rolling in Ted is in a stage of building up CVN by employing the best guys in the biz, all so CVN can handle the mutiple opportunities they already have on the table. Thats the best thing for us shareholders because of TJ's many contacts and his high tech knowledge (in the oil world) he continually gets offered some very desirable joint ventures. Even the Thailand JV (as operator) south of the 20000bopd Shell field will be interesting to see how TJ attacks its exploration. I honestly believe it will not take too long to get CVN over the $1 share mark in 2008.


----------



## Rob 17 (1 November 2007)

Im glad i topped up on Tuesday at .48 cents. 

Fortune favors the brave.

Lets hope there is some good news next week   Should keep CVN over .50 in the medium term imo.

Oil stocks are going to be in the headlines a lot next year as oil prices push up to and above $100 US.


Good Luck Guys 

DYOR


----------



## INORE (1 November 2007)

hi all
Did someone mention that we are expecting a stabilised production report for NS2D1?  If we get a report before the flow results of NS5-D1 and NS6-D1 i am hoping if they report on any lost drilling fluids they may have encountered...also NS6-D1 is in the southern compartment where they have had all their success so if it is reported as having lost plenty of drilling fluids theres a good chance that the results MAY be similar to NS2-D1 and NS8-D1... damn should have got more sub 50c.


----------



## wipz (1 November 2007)

INORE said:


> hi all
> Did someone mention that we are expecting a stabilised production report for NS2D1?  If we get a report before the flow results of NS5-D1 and NS6-D1 i am hoping if they report on any lost drilling fluids they may have encountered...also NS6-D1 is in the southern compartment where they have had all their success so if it is reported as having lost plenty of drilling fluids theres a good chance that the results MAY be similar to NS2-D1 and NS8-D1... damn should have got more sub 50c.




Hi INORE, from memory I thought that both wells are north of POE-9.  This is still in the southern compartment but quite some distance north from the money makers.  Note that they are not producing at full capacity yet due to limitations on production facilities, however are looking into resolving this issue.  I do hope the northern part of the southern block flows black gold!!!


----------



## cgf (2 November 2007)

INORE said:


> hi all
> Did someone mention that we are expecting a stabilised production report for NS2D1?



Looking at the psi pressure there seems little doubt once NS2D1 cleans up and develops, its stabilized flow rate will improve over the tested 1920 bopd. This happened on a previous well when they encounted big fluid losses into the fractured zone. 

As the daily flow rates are higher than current storage capacity it will be excellent news that their storage has been increased. This is especially pertinent with their next two wells about to come on stream, the likely result being even more bopd. I was waiting on drill results for my AGO stock so I can sell a few to get into a few more CVN (while CVN are still cheap).


----------



## 1234 (2 November 2007)

cgf said:


> I was waiting on drill results for my AGO stock so I can sell a few to get into a few more CVN (while CVN are still cheap).




I'm hoping a little bit of selling takes place with the events of the DOW overngt. 

CVN has held up well previously in these situations, rising when the market went red but none-the-less I doubt it will be spared. 

Timing couldn't be better!!


----------



## cgf (2 November 2007)

1234 said:


> I'm hoping a little bit of selling takes place with the events of the DOW overngt.
> 
> CVN has held up well previously in these situations, rising when the market went red but none-the-less I doubt it will be spared.
> 
> Timing couldn't be better!!



As much as you never want to see a stock fall its great when that happens and gives you a chance to get in when you know the fall has nothing to do with CVN fundamentals.


----------



## 1234 (2 November 2007)

cgf said:


> As much as you never want to see a stock fall its great when that happens and gives you a chance to get in when you know the fall has nothing to do with CVN fundamentals.




Complete agreement..

Didn't drop enough for me to buy in.. ( And I was too slow! ) 

Thought it would drop some more, but it rallied too quickly. Saw 1 350k sell order for .47 at open... Why would you do that to yourself?  They could have picked up an extra $10k if they waited 50 mins.. 

We're back to yesterdays close already, waiting for her to go green now.....


----------



## Rob 17 (2 November 2007)

I too was hoping the stock would dip on a day like today because you know sellers are selling to cover other positions they hold.

The next week or so should be exciting times for shareholders. Hope we have some good news, than a re rating should be on the cards. (my opinion only)

Carnarvon Petroleum is reaching a similar market cap to Tap Oil.

It would be nice to see Carnarvon have some index participation.

Maybe S&P/ASX SMALL RESOURCES or  S&P/ASX 300 RESOURCES (nothing wrong with dreaming ) 

Do Your Own Research

Fingers Crossed


----------



## 1234 (2 November 2007)

A re-rating is 100% due now.

Hartley's took out there options today, that only happens when payment is due for something they have done. ( as per last time )

Getting rather excited now. Re-rating coming, announcement due, AGM next 2 weeks.

All smiles... In my opinion, Hartley's value will be placed at 50c-$1.20 based on past valuation, present production, future value combined with present success rates....


----------



## cgf (3 November 2007)

Rob 17 said:


> I too was hoping the stock would dip on a day like today because you know sellers are selling to cover other positions they hold.
> 
> The next week or so should be exciting times for shareholders. Hope we have some good news, than a re rating should be on the cards. (my opinion only)
> 
> ...




As Ted started TAP his statement that he was more excited by CVNs potential and opportunities says a lot for CVN. Not to mention the fact he has millions in personal wealth that he has invested in CVN (he was after all retired) but he couldn't resist getting involved with CVN because of its massive potential. The whole board is made up of a first class team of very smart operators and that will lead CVN into index participation given time. I have over a dozen different small to mid sized stock and my honest opinion is that this is the one I see the most potential to develop into a real medium sized powerhouse. Ive already made a mint out CVN since my original investments in 2002 but with CVN I can see far more yet to come and not just in Thailand.


----------



## 1234 (3 November 2007)

http://www.bnn.ca/shows/past_archive.tv?day=fri

Commodities report @ 11.30am. Interview with Jeff Chisolm.

CEO of POE on BNN.

Mentions current production of 3600bopd nett to POE.

2008 estimates based on recent discoveries are an additional 7500bopd nett to POE

Takes estimated total production in Thailand Q4 '08 - In the current location to 19,000bopd (CVN 40% ). Double the expected potential and will more drilling to continue in '09 with more blocks to be tested covering another 2000km² ( that CVN is involved in ) further to this.

He believes the Block in which they are testing now is the second largest discovery in Thailand behind Shells' 25mmbl discovery @ Sirikit, not including new blocks to be tested.

POE finished last night at $10.90 - Up $1.13 - 11.57% 

CVN has 50% operating interest ( With SUN ) in a block to the East, and directly below Shells Sirikit field.


----------



## INORE (3 November 2007)

thats quite a report...and what a surge in POE prices on friday...thanks for all the info guys/gals....there also seems to be POE surges the day or so before market announcement on drill results...not sure if this is spec or a leak...if i get a chance i will retrace POE announcements v POE volume and see if there is a strong correllation on any positive results...


----------



## Scaph (3 November 2007)

1234 said:


> http://www.bnn.ca/shows/past_archive.tv?day=fri
> 
> Commodities report @ 11.30am. Interview with Jeff Chisolm.
> 
> ...




Just a point of correction 1234 - Sirikit is *250 mmbl* not 25. Na Sunan East could be anything if the other 3-4 zones start to flow!

Regards

Scaph


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## 1234 (3 November 2007)

Scaph said:


> Just a point of correction 1234 - Sirikit is *250 mmbl* not 25. Na Sunan East could be anything if the other 3-4 zones start to flow!
> 
> Regards
> 
> Scaph




Cheers m8. starting to get too many 0's these days!! 

'big' anyway. lol. 

Can't wait to what the Hartleys' report mentions............


----------



## cgf (4 November 2007)

1234 said:


> http://www.bnn.ca/shows/past_archive.tv?day=fri
> 
> Commodities report @ 11.30am. Interview with Jeff Chisolm.
> 
> ...




The market is really waiting to see audited reserves but indicated reserves reveal CVN to be extremely undervalued and thats without even scratching the surface of the JVs in Thailand. So much upside and scope and as Jeff Chisolm said in the interview this is all without testing the other zones in the holes which potentially could contain "black gold". I must find out if the oil is waxy as it was in Wichian Buri field. Having a sample of the Wichian Buri oil I was surprised how waxy it was which caused some issues. No doubt CVN will get a bit of attention this week even with a turbulent up and down market.


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## Flyer (5 November 2007)

NS5-D1 DEVELOPMENT WELL
The NS5-D1 well, which is located approximately 400 metres south of the L44-H producing well within the central fault compartment of the Na Sanun East oil field, has been drilled as a deviated development well to a depth of 906 metres (true vertical depth (“TVD”)). The target volcanic reservoir which was intersected at a depth of 878 metres TVD has shown severe lost circulation while drilling through approximately 46 metres (measured thickness) of potential reservoir. Drilling mud losses totaled approximately 6,222 bbls at loss rates of 165 to 206 bbls/hr. Conventional logs have been run *which indicate this to be the best potential volcanic reservoir section encountered to date within the Na Sanun East field.*
In addition, a new potential reservoir zone approximately 60 metres in measured thickness (33 metres true vertical thickness) of interpreted highly porous and fractured volcanic tuffs, was encountered above the aforementioned main volcanic reservoir section. Severe lost circulation with high mud gas readings and live oil at surface was encountered over this interval at 1,100, 1122.5, 1130 and 1,149 metres (measured depth (“MD”)) with corresponding mud losses of 14, 105, 77 and 85 bbls/hr. A similar porous section was previously encountered at POE-9 where a highly fractured 25 metre thick tuff exhibiting severe lost circulation was encountered above the main volcanic target. This was not tested at the time. The intersection of this unit in two wells has additional significance which will warrant flow testing, however, flow testing of the main volcanic
zone will take preference in this well.


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## imaginator (5 November 2007)

Looks like last week it didnt go lower as people expected, instead it went to 0.47 and quickly shot up. 
Wow, today its already 0.56.

Does anyone think this is still a good price to jump in?
Are there any target prices from any reports from brokers or investment banks?


Im very happy I bought more last week at 0.47.


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## wipz (5 November 2007)

I still think this stock is cheap, just because of the potiential that its thailand operations hold. If you scroll through past announcements you can see the JV strike rate is extremely high in the thailand operations and from my point of view i think they are going to struggle not finding oil.. If NS6 is also successful CVN is going to fly high and in 08 they start exploring their Aussie tenements, cant see this stock being any cheaper if they hit some oil in Aus as well. Great fundamentals, Ted knows his sh*t!!
Cheers

(I firmly hold)


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## INORE (5 November 2007)

yeah i also hold a reasonable package...i am thinking of purchasing the same amount again...what i like about the price of the stock is that it doesnt seem to have any speculation in the current price like other oil/gas stocks i have followed.  they're producing well in advance of plans/self funded/with a stronger and larger jv partner and apparently have some guy leading thailand that has been there and done that...to me the main reason for buying more of this stock is because of the small risk at a low price with really big potential...


----------



## Rob 17 (5 November 2007)

I topped up again at .535 today. I hold a decent sized parcel now. I like this company alot. The share price has been moving up in the right direction on results. 

What we need now is for NS5 to flow.

CVN run a very cost effective operation. Operating cost=  US$10bbl reducing with flow additions.

The only down side of this company is i am losing sleep watching POE LOL 

If anyone has any recent newspaper articles about CVN operations and prospects can they post a link. 

Regards
Robert

DYOR


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## Riles (5 November 2007)

Yeah I too bought more today @ 54.5.
I've bought parcels at low teens, low 20's, low 30's, low 40's and now into the 50's. Each time they release results I peg another line of support under the price and happily buy more.
The next announcement is always just around the corner and they are shooting fish in a barrel at the moment with their success rate.

The update today suggests NS5-D1 could be their best yet (again!). 

"severe lost circulation while drilling through approximately 46 metres
(measured thickness) of potential reservoir. Drilling mud losses totaled approximately
6,222 bbls at loss rates of 165 to 206 bbls/hr. Conventional logs have been run which
indicate this to be the best potential volcanic reservoir section encountered to date within
the Na Sanun East field."


----------



## kransky (5 November 2007)

I jumped in today at .525

Been skipping the CVN thread for weeks now till i finally spent the time and read this thread and looked at the charts and then became quite mad with myself that i had not paid attention to CVN much EARLIER!!!!!

But better late than never!


----------



## cgf (7 November 2007)

Riles said:


> Yeah I too bought more today @ 54.5.
> I've bought parcels at low teens, low 20's, low 30's, low 40's and now into the 50's. Each time they release results I peg another line of support under the price and happily buy more.
> The next announcement is always just around the corner and they are shooting fish in a barrel at the moment with their success rate.
> 
> ...




Reading that there is a  very good chance that CVN is going to continue north, which is why I picked up another 100000 @ 0.54. Notice the oil price once again shows nothing but an upward spiral with the US$100 a barrel price semming imminent.  

With ldecent strikes in the next 6 wells before the EOY its hard not to see CVN not pushing the 80c/90c+ mark IMO. As mentioned by Fat Profits they "where" value at up to 0.77c before anymore success, and all this with 2000km sq in the joint JV so the targets are far from exhausted. 

We would have to see a complete failure in either the "market" or "well strike rates" and neither outcome looks likely. You have to say the Oz economy and the mining bonanza with high commodities are really putting Oz in a position where the worlds biggest market (USA) maybe sneezing but we are looking like we are well vaccinated.


----------



## 1234 (7 November 2007)

Has seen 58.5c today, with buy side 2:1

Signs look great!

Topped up again yesterday after close...


----------



## wipz (7 November 2007)

I too topped up today again at 58c, at this point i am chucking every spare cent into CVN.  
Next week will be good to hear the results of NS5 and NS6.


----------



## wipz (8 November 2007)

I just watched an interview on www.BNN.ca with Jeff Chisholm the CEO of POE.  He mentions that POE believe the JV has the 2nd biggest oil reserve in Thailand.   The analyst also involved in the interview mentions that he expects the JV to be producing 77,000 barrels per day (Jeff rekons 36,000 barrels per day) in 2008.    Not sure if he is talking net to POE or net to the JV, worst case that is like 10x what they are currently producing.  Very solid news!

For anyone interested here is the link, the interview starts around the 5 min mark.  The title of the video is "_*Commodities Report [11-02-07 11:30 AM ET]*_" : 

http://www.bnn.ca/shows/past_archive.tv?day=fri


----------



## wipz (8 November 2007)

cgf said:


> With ldecent strikes in the next 6 wells before the EOY its hard not to see CVN not pushing the 80c/90c+ mark IMO. As mentioned by Fat Profits they "where" value at up to 0.77c before anymore success, and all this with 2000km sq in the joint JV so the targets are far from exhausted.




And remember cgf that we still have another 2000 sq km north of this current block to drill the hell out of.  6 more wells to go this year, i can not wait!!  Good times ahead!


----------



## 1234 (8 November 2007)

wipz said:


> I just watched an interview on www.BNN.ca with Jeff Chisholm the CEO of POE.  He mentions that POE believe the JV has the 2nd biggest oil reserve in Thailand.   The analyst also involved in the interview mentions that he expects the JV to be producing 77,000 barrels per day (Jeff rekons 36,000 barrels per day) in 2008.    Not sure if he is talking net to POE or net to the JV, worst case that is like 10x what they are currently producing.  Very solid news!
> 
> For anyone interested here is the link, the interview starts around the 5 min mark.  The title of the video is "_*Commodities Report [11-02-07 11:30 AM ET]*_" :
> 
> http://www.bnn.ca/shows/past_archive.tv?day=fri




Wipz, ur out on ur numbers a touch!!... Read my post from a few days ago  

7500bbls a day - Nett to POE, extra over to the current 3600 odd

 a bit spekky ..


----------



## Riles (8 November 2007)

Calm down Wipz, 
the interviewer mentioned an estimate of an extra 7000 bopd next year (not 77000!).
The first interviewer initially mentioned 4500 extra barrels and Jeff said this was conservative. They were talking net to POE. POE are currently at 3600 bopd.

The way things are going I think another 7000 bopd is conservative IMHO. 

They probably only need half a dozen more producing wells to add the 7000 bopd and they are doing 6 more wells before the end of this year.


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## Rob 17 (8 November 2007)

Carnarvon had some strong vol yesterday. It was a solid innings. (David Boon would be proud of)  Today should be a good test too.  Looks like theres a few clouds around but we should get some play.  

DYOR


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## wipz (8 November 2007)

OH damn!! hahahaha i am somewhat dissapointed now, I must have been really really tired or something last night and starting to imagine things  Oh well still good news, however may have to put the ferrari on hold for a few more years.  I too believe 7,000 net to POE is conservative (would be ~12,000 net to the JV - we are nearly there!)


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## hbk2015 (8 November 2007)

Iam kinda new to the stock market, I bought into CVN yesterday at .58 . Was that a good price?, it seems like the right time to buy them


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## 1234 (8 November 2007)

hbk2015 said:


> Iam kinda new to the stock market, I bought into CVN yesterday at .58 . Was that a good price?, it seems like the right time to buy them




Well If you're new, I hope you didn't sell today!

CVN has done very well on past results. Future looks bright, oil is getting expensive and the US$ is in our favor.

The Dow however, is not!! 


Good luck, let's see what tomorrow brings


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## cgf (9 November 2007)

1234 said:


> Well If you're new, I hope you didn't sell today!
> 
> CVN has done very well on past results. Future looks bright, oil is getting expensive and the US$ is in our favor.
> 
> ...



Unlike some scaremongers I don't believe the USA is heading for a recession, mainly because the US market is still wealthy and these loans are not the whole market, not to mention FED will continue to cut interest rates. At worse its a correction, until the depth of the high risk loans become known. I still believe the USA is slowly loosing its No1 status to upcoming powerhouses such as China. Oz is one of those countries in the best position to be gaining a large long term share of this upcoming Asian market. Look at how cashed up our mining section is with deals like Jubilee, Rio, BHP etc This country only has to keep peoples borrowings in check (to their incomes) and not let inflation take hold.  

Look at the current avg wealth per person in Oz vs the USA. Its clear to see we have turned a corner to become one of the greatest power to weight economic success stories of the past decade. We certainly don't have the poverty dramas of other comparable countries and we now have the lowest unemployment for a very long time. If we started to see significant rises in unemployment then we know we are heading the wrong way.

Gee CVN is holding ultra strong in the 0.58/0.59 range even with no results and the day traders thinking they are bunnies in the headlights of the USA sub-prime mortgage market. You would not be touching non institutional loan stock with a barge pole as they work out who/which is overexposed. Thankfully CVN is printing its own currency (black gold) and is looking better and better every day. Bugger I had no extra $$ to pickup more CVN on yesterdays down turn market effect.


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## 1234 (12 November 2007)

WOW. up 10.4% today..

12 mil volume, well above the average and a solid close of 64.5c.

Topping 66c today with ann due Tomorrow or Wednesday.

Biggest gain pre-announcement seen by CVN. Very interesting times ahead..


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## INORE (12 November 2007)

1234 said:


> A re-rating is 100% due now.
> 
> Hartley's took out there options today, that only happens when payment is due for something they have done. ( as per last time )
> 
> ...




So i imagine the Hartleys valuation will come after this weeks flow results???  I am hoping for a considerable re-rating as well if this hole does indeed turn out to be their most productive yet.


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## Go Nuke (12 November 2007)

Guys..I'm torn

After doing some research etc it looks as though there is some value still in CVN.....but I'm not sure

I probably should have bought in when i first saw it at 30cish, but now I'm wondering if Ive missed the boat.

Any thoughts on if its too late to get in?
All too often Ive seen the sp up and jumped in only to cop a loss soon afterwards.
I'm currently using DOM to try and coax myself outs that negative thought


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## gimme some (13 November 2007)

I believe there is plenty still left in this 
Lots of drilling to come, fantastic strike rate, positive anns every 10 days or so.
I cant, for the life of me see what will stop this going through $1.00 within the next couple of months.
But then you have to realise that I am extremely biased on this stock.
At 400% in 4 months, you cant blame me can you?


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## Riles (13 November 2007)

The price has run up the last couple of days on anticipation that the next well (NS5-D1) will be another winner. 
We saw a similar run up from 32 to 38c prior to an ann that subsequently wasn't too good and the price droppped to 28.
There's a chance the price may drop on the next ann due any day now. Or they may release another bonanza flow rate which will put the price over 70 and onwards & upwards from there.

I'm holding (lots) and if the SP pulls back to high 50's I'll add more because there's a long way to go yet with this oil field alone. And then there's Bo Rang and maybe another adjacent field with a JV with SUR on the cards soon.


----------



## Caliente (13 November 2007)

well I doubled my holding today. POE not looking fantastic (down about 3.5% atm), but it has been known to surprise with the late rush before close in the past.


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## INORE (13 November 2007)

does anyone have any good guesses on why the sp is slipping today just before the announce?  Profit takers, leaked info on flow results, TSX performance...all of the above?  May be worth putting an order in with this weakness...


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## Rob 17 (13 November 2007)

The shares have risen strongly since the drilling update. IMO the result has been factored in the SP but im happy to be wrong as im holding for the med term.

Good to see high vol yesterday as the SP hit a new high. The slight retreat should not be a concern for shareholders that got in early. IMO

POE share price might not give a true indication anymore as  they raised 30 million + at $9.15 a share.

DYOR


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## imaginator (13 November 2007)

Rob 17 said:


> The shares have risen strongly since the drilling update. IMO the result has been factored in the SP but im happy to be wrong as im holding for the med term.
> 
> Good to see high vol yesterday as the SP hit a new high. The slight retreat should not be a concern for shareholders that got in early. IMO
> 
> ...




Ai caramba!
What's happening here now?
0.61 this morning, now 0.59. 
Low of 0.58

Mamamia!
Are you guys selling


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## wipz (13 November 2007)

imaginator said:


> Ai caramba!
> What's happening here now?
> 0.61 this morning, now 0.59.
> Low of 0.58
> ...




Its some idiots selling it down again, happened before last announcement too. I am not worried at all. DOYR


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## Rob 17 (13 November 2007)

I must say im suprised in todays movement down. I should re phrase "slight retreat".  Maybe its traders getting nervous who knows but im sticking solid for now. I bought my last batch at .535 so im still up. 

Next few days will be interesting. It is unusaual for there to be a leak in regards to CVN. We will soon find out .......

DYOR


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## INORE (13 November 2007)

Well i suppose that todays loss has just as much reason as yesterdays gain...ie all speculation on no new news.  I think that the announcement has been peddled on other forums as being early this week, ie monday or today and thats what drove the price up friday and yesterday, when it didnt come out some short traders decided to sell and buy elsewhere worried that there money could be tied up for too long if there was a delay in announcement, which is allways possible.  I allways had this thursday pegged for the announce.


----------



## Go Nuke (13 November 2007)

Well the retracement worked just fine for me to get in at 60c

Now I just have to set some stops to prevent my screw ups like many times before.


----------



## cgf (14 November 2007)

wipz said:


> Its some idiots selling it down again, happened before last announcement too. I am not worried at all. DOYR



I wonder if people even read anything more than a skim of the announcements ("if they read them at all" ..... Many must base their buying/selling just on market movements). Even someone with no knowledge about the exploration of an oil field shouldn't come to the conclusion that barren holes mean thats the limitation of the field. Although the 3d seismic is as good as it gets for positioning targets for drilling .... its not perfect and investors must realize it can lead to dead holes. 

The thing for a shareholder is to look at the long term viability taking into account the likelihood of more success. A big part of investing is to have a clear understanding of the managements talent for running the company. Some companies have had a lot of luck and their shareprice shows it but for me (as a long term investor) I prefer to put my faith in companies with the best management and those whom are not just out for a fast $$ in directors fees without regard for shareholders interests.

I just wished I had a lazy 40-50k laying around to pickup some more CVN on the senseless dip yesterday. With a strike of reasonable size, you would imagine the 0.70c barrier would be very close to happening,


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## INORE (14 November 2007)

i agree CGF...however i have some tucked as long term and some as medium term (being next year).

does anyone have an extrapulation of how conventional logs would indicate the best potential volcanic reservoir to date.  I googled this on wireline logs http://www.glossary.oilfield.slb.com/Display.cfm?Term=wireline%20log but it gives a whole range of possible logs that could be produced, including down hole sampling.  Does anyone know what specific measurements may have been taken in this hole.  I imagine logs would be different for gas compared to oil???


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## Riles (14 November 2007)

Go Nuke said:


> Well the retracement worked just fine for me to get in at 60c
> 
> Now I just have to set some stops to prevent my screw ups like many times before.




Nice entry IMO
Even those who bought at 66 wont have long to wait to get back in the black.

Looking at the chart at first glance you would expect a retrace to 48 or so, but we followers know the price has run because of success after success.

Bought another parcel at 60 too. Bring on the next success.


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## Rob 17 (14 November 2007)

Just wondering if someone can tell me who re rates a company? And what are the benefits of a re - rating? 

In Hartley's report they believe that the Company will be re-rated
as it achieves self-funding status and expands its development, appraisal
and exploration activities.

Regards
Robert


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## imaginator (16 November 2007)

Anyone buying more now? 
0.57, my fingers are itchy to press Buy.

Seems very quiet these few days for CVN. When is the next report coming out?


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## MS+Tradesim (16 November 2007)

Next report was due yesterday or today. Rereading last announcement it looked good so not sure what the hold-up is. They did have a second zone confirmed in the current well so maybe they decided to test both levels. Who knows? Waiting patiently.


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## Dukey (16 November 2007)

Rob 17 said:


> Just wondering if someone can tell me who re rates a company? And what are the benefits of a re - rating?
> 
> In Hartley's report they believe that the Company will be re-rated
> as it achieves self-funding status and expands its development, appraisal
> ...




Robert (Bob or Rob??) - I think they are referring to 'the market' re-rating the company - ie. sp climbing to new levels - as the company progresses - proving resources etc, and risk is reduced.


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## INORE (16 November 2007)

i read in HC forum that a guy rang the company and spoke to the company secretary Rob Anderson and he said that results are going to be out early next week on the monday or tuesday....and for what its worth...he said he sounded quite cheery about it all....


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## INORE (19 November 2007)

anyone got any ideas on why such a frequent amount of trades with low volumes that would cost allmost the same in broker fees???

Last 10 Trades
Time Price Quantity 
02:12:24 PM 0.585 109 
02:06:28 PM 0.585 100 
02:02:00 PM 0.585 5,000 
02:00:21 PM 0.585 98 
01:59:01 PM 0.580 800 
01:59:01 PM 0.580 2,400 
01:54:01 PM 0.585 100 
01:48:56 PM 0.585 87 
01:44:58 PM 0.585 95 
01:41:06 PM 0.585 1,499


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## shaunm (19 November 2007)

Perhaps this is a larger order broken up??

I have CVN on my watch list, is this one a potential "break out" I wonder?


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## MS+Tradesim (19 November 2007)

Inore,

I've been watching that for a few days. It would be a broker buying on behalf of a larger client. An automated program would just buy random small parcels at market (with maybe a few conditions). The client would pay a set overall brokerage fee rather than for each transaction. The idea is that many small parcels can be overlooked, but if an order for say 1,000,000 goes into the lines it will affect the price. Hence, the bot can fill the order at a lower average price. It would be especially useful in a period like now where there are many willing sellers. However, the fact that this buying is occurring is, IMO, a good sign. BTW, confirmed with Ted Jacobsen that an announcement should be either today or tomorrow. Looks like tomorrow now.


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## Riles (19 November 2007)

Thanks for that explanation MS. I had a similar experience trying to sell 5000 DOM at a certain price and someone bought 1 share! Then half hour later another trade went through for 1 share!
It's annoying to have partially filled orders hanging around so I changed the order to at market and flicked the rest.

Perhaps this is their reasoning also?
Take a few nibbles at sell orders and get them to dump the rest at market? Worked on me anyway.

Oh well, happy to snaffle another parcel of CVN at 57 today.


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## INORE (20 November 2007)

Another hit, not as spectacular as their last few but it's still around 6-7% increase on their current production....the success rate is fantastic...and i beleive the increased depth of structures at which they have found oil will lead to an even bigger oil-reserve figure.



Pan Orient Energy Corp.-Thailand: NS5-D1 Tests at 240-440 bopd
06:00 EST Monday, November 19, 2007



CALGARY, ALBERTA--(Marketwire - Nov. 19, 2007) - Pan Orient Energy Corp. (TSX VENTUREOE) - 

NOT FOR DISSEMINATION TO U.S. NEWSWIRE SERVICES OR FOR DISSEMINATION IN THE UNITED STATES.

NS5-D1 Well (60% WI & Operator)

Pan Orient Energy Corp.'s recently drilled Na Sanun East ("NSE") oil field well NS5-D1 has been flowing at rates of between 240 and 440 barrels per day ("bopd") of 35 degree API crude in addition to a BS&W currently averaging 4-6%. The well is on free flow through only the casing on a choke setting of 17/64 inch, and is currently shut-in on the tubing. Flowing casing head pressure is 60-120 psi and shut in tubing head pressure is 40 psi. The well will be put on beam pump over the next few days at which time it will be flowed through both the tubing and casing.

NS5-D1 was drilled within the central fault compartment of the NSE oil field, approximately 400 meters south of L44-H. The well penetrated the main volcanic reservoir in the structurally lowest position of any well drilled to date and reached total depth approximately 8 meters deeper than any previous well, below initially interpreted structural closure.

Current total field production capacity is now greater than 6,000 bopd with average deliveries to the refinery of over 5,000 bopd, the difference being the capacity of the current number of available trucks to deliver oil to the refinery. Trucking capacity is anticipated to increase to 5,800 bopd by month end. Negotiations are currently underway to bring on a third loading bay with 3,000 bopd capacity at the existing refinery and for a new sales contract at a second refinery, for an additional 6,000 bopd capacity, which would be subject to government approval of the Na Sanun East production license.

All other NSE wells continue to perform with restricted oil rates and very low water cuts.

L44H-D1 (60% WI & Operator)

The Aztec #14 rig is currently setting casing just above target on deviated well L44H-D1, located within the central fault compartment of the NSE structural closure with a subsurface target location approximately 700 meters south of L44-H. Total depth is anticipated to be reached within 5 days. This is the third well drilled into NSE's central fault compartment.

NS6-D1A Sidetrack (60% WI & Operator)

The Aztec #7 rig is currently setting casing just above target on deviated well NS6-D1A, located within the south fault compartment of the NSE structural closure approximately 400 meters north of the original POE-9 discovery well. Total depth is anticipated to be reached within 5 days. This is the fifth well drilled into NSE's southern fault compartment.


----------



## derbon99 (20 November 2007)

Not an amazing drill result... 

It is always the same story when expect too much :-(

We won't touch the 70 with kind of news unfortunately.


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## MS+Tradesim (20 November 2007)

With the sheep herd overreacting, anyone got some spare change to send my way and I'll start buying?


----------



## imaginator (20 November 2007)

MS+Tradesim said:


> With the sheep herd overreacting, anyone got some spare change to send my way and I'll start buying?





Hi all,
Is the report today bad, or just below expectation.
It's 0.53 now.
I wonder if it is a good time to pick up more, considering today also the ASX dropped because of USA.


----------



## wipz (20 November 2007)

imaginator said:


> Hi all,
> Is the report today bad, or just below expectation.
> It's 0.53 now.
> I wonder if it is a good time to pick up more, considering today also the ASX dropped because of USA.




It is below expectations, alot of investors jumped on board expecting 2,000+ bpd, coupled with ST investors selling out the market taking a hit in general isnt helping CVN hold up. Apart from that more oil is very good news. CVN just adding to their net barrels per day.  However, with storage and transportation being stretched to the limits, physically CVN cannot produce any more oil. 
Choke setting of 17/64 inch, with fairly low pressure at the head, dont think there is much upside potential to produce past 400pbd at this well as some are claiming in HC.
Results from NS6-D1A side track and L44H-D1 shall be available in 5 days, and CVN looking into resolving their storage issues right now.
If you are going to sell, sell today, I have my bid in at 52c.
Cheers.


----------



## MS+Tradesim (20 November 2007)

Below expectation - but every well, good or bad or mediocre, adds to their knowledge of the area. Two more drilling now. 30 to come next year. High strike rate. Well ahead of targeted production schedule. All cashed up and considering a 3rd rig. It's my opinion that there is heaps of upside to come.

But only you know if buying this stock now will fit your trading/investing objectives.


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## imaginator (20 November 2007)

wipz said:


> Its not great, but it is very good news. CVN just adding to their net barrels per day.  However, with storage and transportation being stretched to the limits, physically CVN cannot produce any more oil.
> Results from NS6-D1A side track and L44H-D1 shall be available in 5 days, and CVN looking into resolving their storage issues right now.
> If you are going to sell, sell today, I have my bid in at 52c.
> Cheers.




WIPz, 
why are you telling people to sell when u are trying to buy at 52c?
hmmmnmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmm


----------



## doogie_goes_off (20 November 2007)

Why would it be bad to pocket 10's-100's of barrels of oil a day extra to add to your production?, the long term trend will undoubtedly be up and the traders will come and go trying to pick the announcement that's going to make them rich, when it doesn't pan out they bail only to have to have another go next time which leads to a bit of volatility. Everyone wants a miracle result to make 25% on, but IMO this one's just going to keep humming onward and upward.


----------



## wipz (20 November 2007)

imaginator said:


> WIPz,
> why are you telling people to sell when u are trying to buy at 52c?
> hmmmnmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmm




Im just saying, if your going to be a sheep then you're falling behind mate 
wipz the shepard will be here to pick up any cheap scraps


----------



## MS+Tradesim (20 November 2007)

doogie_goes_off said:


> Why would it be bad to pocket 10's-100's of barrels of oil a day extra to add to your production?, the long term trend will undoubtedly be up and the traders will come and go trying to pick the announcement that's going to make them rich, when it doesn't pan out they bail only to have to have another go next time which leads to a bit of volatility. Everyone wants a miracle result to make 25% on, but IMO this one's just going to keep humming onward and upward.





It's not bad but the reality is the share market is massively influenced by sentiment. All the short-term traders were expecting more so they bid it up in the first place, now it's not what they were expecting so they flog it down to get out. Very silly behaviour because stocks like this make the long-term holders far happier than scalping cents off the volatility.


----------



## cgf (20 November 2007)

MS+Tradesim said:


> It's not bad but the reality is the share market is massively influenced by sentiment. All the short-term traders were expecting more so they bid it up in the first place, now it's not what they were expecting so they flog it down to get out. Very silly behaviour because stocks like this make the long-term holders far happier than scalping cents off the volatility.



If you say NS5-D1 flows 340bopd which is between the averaged 240-440bopd @ US$94.15 barrel that equals extra income of US$32011.00 per day, which is far from a market blow. The other very interesting point repeated in the announcement and "INORE" in his post above was the increased depth of the strike. This will have major implications on the reserve when calculations are done. Flow rates are one thing but reserves are the true indicator of worth and its clear CVN and POE are a long way from knowing the limitations of this oil fields potential.

Now how to make hay while the market panics over the continuing fallout from the subprime mortgage dramas that are happening in the USA.


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## 1234 (20 November 2007)

There is nothing wrong with 300bopd! 

there a two results due within days of the AGM on the 26th Nov... (actually - near on TO the day! )

With so much upside potential thru to Chrissy and reserves to be made public in December, could be a great New Year. 

POE's Jeff Chisholm mentioned a while ago they believe it's the second largest oil field in Thai, I wonder if they have proof of that?? 

They are upping storage/production facilities in the short term to 50% greater than current, so must be fairly confident..


----------



## MS+Tradesim (21 November 2007)

Holding tight, nevertheless I really am mystified by the slaughter, now down 22% from the high and I see no reason except lemming behaviour.


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## MS+Tradesim (21 November 2007)

1234,

You said reserves are to be announced in December. I've been looking through anns. trying to find that. Can you confirm where you heard that please?

And agreed, last ann. was actually very positive with storage and sales upgrades to come.


----------



## wipz (21 November 2007)

MS+Tradesim said:


> 1234,
> 
> You said reserves are to be announced in December. I've been looking through anns. trying to find that. Can you confirm where you heard that please?
> 
> And agreed, last ann. was actually very positive with storage and sales upgrades to come.




From memory i think it was on the interview with POE CEO Jeff Chisholm 
The title of the video is "Commodities Report [11-02-07 11:30 AM ET]" : 
http://www.bnn.ca/
I've just tried to have another look at it and it seems that you cannot access videos that are over a week old so maybe this one is unavailable now??

Anyways, looking at the market depth on this one is quite daunting.  Alot of investors getting out .  I am considering buying back in as CVN have solid fundamentals, the question is at what price will she find solid support... 48c?? 50c seems to be solid at the moment


----------



## Riles (21 November 2007)

MS+Tradesim said:


> Holding tight, nevertheless I really am mystified by the slaughter, now down 22% from the high and I see no reason except lemming behaviour.




A bit perplexing really. I guess you can't fight sentiment it was probably always going to sold off by a few and now the herd has followed them.
And this is from a good announcement - imagine if it was a duster...

Oh well, buy the dips. I'll appease myself by picking up more today at 51. I expect sideways action around low 50's for a few days.


----------



## Rob 17 (21 November 2007)

CVN has been sold off considerably compared to its JV partner who has hardly flinched. For long term investors who put faith in this company from the beginning the sell off is a minor hiccup  in my opinion. 

I bought my last batch at .535 before it hit a high of .66.  Still up and looking forward to the SP stabilising in the near future. 

Seems like its finding support at .51 for now

13:06.44   100,000    .51
13:12.24   150,000    .51

DYOR


----------



## cgf (21 November 2007)

wipz said:


> From memory i think it was on the interview with POE CEO Jeff Chisholm
> The title of the video is "Commodities Report [11-02-07 11:30 AM ET]" :
> http://www.bnn.ca/
> I've just tried to have another look at it and it seems that you cannot access videos that are over a week old so maybe this one is unavailable now??
> ...




Although there is still many years of exploration before we will know the full extent of the JVs potential Ted will no doubt clear up the current reserve announcement at this months AGM. 

But indications within Jeff Chisholms interviews clearly indicate that this will be at least the second biggest oilfield in Thailand next to the Sirikit Oilfield. When you put it in perspective (not from a day traders point of view "on a well by well basis") thats not a statement that should be taken lightly. Obviously Na Sanun or Sirikit is no Ghawar oil field (in Saudi Arabia) but for CVN this IMO puts CVN in the position of being a well undervalued stock.


> The Sirikit Oilfield covers an area of 1,039 square kilometers and started in December 1982. It produces crude oil, natural gas and liquefied petroleum gas. It has a daily production rate of 19,500 barrels of oil, 59.2 million cubic feet of natural gas and 280 tons of LPG. On the 30th December, 2003 approximately 150 million barrels of Crude from Sirikit Oil Field were produced under the operation of Thai Shell Exploration and Production Co., Ltd. before the oil field was handed over to PTTEP to carry on the operations. PTT Exploration and Production Public Co., Ltd (PTTEP) entered into a joint venture with Thai Shell with 25% share holding while Thai Shell held the remaining 75%. On January 12, 1983, PTTEP acquired all of Thai shell’s shares and assumed full operation of Sirikit Oilfield. The Sirikit Oilfield is estimated to continue supplying for about ten more years as there are at least 60 million barrels of oil and 245 billion cubic feet of natural gas yet to be recovered.



My problem is how to get enough spare cash. That to me is something thats much harder to solve than any question I have as to what CVN shares will be worth in one-two years time.


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## INORE (21 November 2007)

Thanks for that CGF.  As allways I have the little voice inside my head telling me to sell however I have been caught out many times like this,  selling a stock on market sentiment when the fundamentals of the company have not changed, i am a little dark that i dont have any funds to pick up some more possibly in high 40's which seems possible now.  The only reason i can see for the SP change is the infrastructure problem they have of getting the oil out, I think this is the key and the sooner they solve it the sooner the SP will start climbing, because really the if the next hole flows 3000BOPD its meaningless (except for reserves) unless they can get it to market.  So come on Ted, strike a deal with Thai govt to get some infrastructure pronto, or keep buying trucks.  I actually remember now that a thread on hot copper mentioned someone knowing someone who was purchasing trucks in thai in the area but couldnt be certain if it was the JV....

However, the more i think about the experience of T Jacobson and POE the more i realise that he would have had the forsight to order more trucks 4-6 weeks ago when they new that supply would be restricted by transport issues....so hopefully we get some closure on this before the new year.


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## wipz (21 November 2007)

I put my last pay cheque into CVN, so I am running on nothing for the next fortnight - also thinking of selling up a few of my other shares to put in CVN while all the short term players jump ship.  I am really bullish on CVN's future, POE know what they are doing and definately have big plans for the JV blocks.  

The way I see it is that the short term punters are getting out largely due to the capacity restrictions and lower than expected flow rate from NS5.  Even if NS6-D1A side track and L44H-D1 flow early next week CVN will not beable put these new well online, hence they believe that in the ST the price isnt going anywhere.  She should trade sideways around the 50c mark and rise on anticipation around friday.  Depending on how it pans out I may just pick up another parcel.

I am hoping they will address the issue at the annual meeting on Monday, if not I will raise the question.  The question is how long will it take to get the infrastructure and transportation in place to increase capacity in the ST?  How will they tackle the issue going forward (assuming the strike rate continues)?

Im trying to compare CVN at the moment with TAP oil, does anyone know how many net barrels per day TAP are producing and at what capex?


----------



## MS+Tradesim (21 November 2007)

re: Tap

Should answer some of your questions. Doesn't seem to address capex but I didn't look closely:

http://www.tapoil.com.au/admin/Upload/docs/ASX_315_Investor_Presentation_Update_-_Nov_2007.pdf

They're saying 1.5mboe per year = 4100boepd.

150m shares on issue. $100m in the bank, no debt. DYOR.

(I don't hold TAP but it looks good going forward)


----------



## Rob 17 (21 November 2007)

Bit puzzled why CVN has been sold off. It has been rising steadily on results and oil is at record highs. 4pm could not have come quickly enough today. 

If the Dow takes a hit tonight there could be more selling tomorrow IMO.   I’m going to raid the money box and buy some more. Going to show some faith in the company. 

There are some oil companies that are steady and don’t even produce any oil yet (ELK).

Hopefully after the AGM a clearer picture of CVN future's will be painted and we can all sleep well 

DYOR


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## cgf (21 November 2007)

There are so many variables in why an investor sells and I believe you have to be extremely careful in the way you interpret their reasoning. I will give you an example: One such guy I know took out a personal line of credit for $50,000 to buy CVN at 0.45c and he was planning on a selling at the 0.70c - 0.80c range. Another had extended himself a little too much on his AGO holdings so he decided to buy $20,000 @ 0.50c using his gold card and panicked yesterday when the market fell and then sold CVN this morning. None of those decisions have anything to do with CVN. 

Maybe I'm the lone soldier in this age of "new day traders" who buy and sell based on market trends. Back when I had significant amounts of JBM @ 2.00 (and was well overextended) I made a rule for myself in that I don't invest what I need for day to day living. I only invest what I can do without, that way I am never sacrificing my sanity on whether a SP is up or down on a certain day when I might be forced to sell. 

The fundamentals for CVN's worth are "the size of the reserve less its costs", it is not if a well flows 100 or 3000bopd. To me its clear certain investors don't understand (or even look at the whole picture) and they will be the same ex shareholders who a few years down the track say boy I wish I held onto them I had plenty of them for only 0.60c. 

In relativity to finding a viable oil field ..... storage and transport are very easy, cheap and quick issues to solve (I bet even CVN was not expecting 3000bopd suddenly in two wells). Now how much money can I get for my first born (I even throw in the wife) I think I know of a good buying opportunity in the morning.


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## MS+Tradesim (21 November 2007)

> The fundamentals for CVN's worth are "the size of the reserve less its costs", it is not if a well flows 100 or 3000bopd.




This is not quite the whole picture. The reserves are meaningless if they can't be pumped and sold. They could have 500mb in the ground and it's essentially worthless till they get it out. Cash flow is the lifeblood of any business. I do, however, agree that CVN is a long-term hold.


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## Rob 17 (21 November 2007)

Im looking forward to L44H - D1.  It is approx 700m south of L44H.

L44H is the one that flowed 1265 bbld.  Hopefully by than POE & CVN would have bought a few trucks.... 

DYOR


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## cgf (21 November 2007)

MS+Tradesim said:


> This is not quite the whole picture. The reserves are meaningless if they can't be pumped and sold. They could have 500mb in the ground and it's essentially worthless till they get it out. Cash flow is the lifeblood of any business. I do, however, agree that CVN is a long-term hold.



What I of course meant was "recoverable reserves" less all costs (inc company running costs) or otherwise known as "Profit".
You can turnover 10 billion but if your costs are 9.99 billion its pretty well useless for a shareholder to see value.


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## doctorj (21 November 2007)

cgf said:


> What I of course meant was "recoverable reserves" less all costs (inc company running costs) or otherwise known as "Profit".
> You can turnover 10 billion but if your costs are 9.99 billion its pretty well useless for a shareholder to see value.



I'm not sure I quite agree here.  If you had two companies equal in every way (recoverable reserves,  fixed and variable costs etc etc) except one pumped at 10,000bopd and the other pumped at 100bopd.  Which would be more valuable?


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## 1234 (22 November 2007)

I think there is a fairly short sighted view of CVN from traders atmo.. Then again, the whole stockmarket has a shortsighted view atmo the way things are...

I label myself an investor - not a trader. I then do not worry about these little bumps and jumps. Solid reserves and good production ( read cashflow ) are what counts for me. Building that core foundation that will support the company through 'dusters' or market volatility.

imo once reserves are announced in Dec ( as per Thai gov't regulations ) we will see some more long term views placed on this stock. Next years cash flow statement should be very healthy also.

sp has now dropped to support levels shown before last announcement, imo due to the US, not CVN. Unfortunately, I might have to buy more tomorrow with the dow being down tonight... I really don't mind at all!! Smart buying, not impulse ( sheepish ) buying

My main purchase was ~16c and I have topped up along the way whenever I could see value. Right now, based on production Vs sp I see great value.

Two more good results combined with more storage - should be off again. Until then I expect sideways trading @ 50c.

Ask me two months ago to take sideways trading at 50c I would have jumped at it!! 

I wonder what these two new wells will produce - due the day before the AGM??


----------



## cgf (22 November 2007)

doctorj said:


> I'm not sure I quite agree here.  If you had two companies equal in every way (recoverable reserves,  fixed and variable costs etc etc) except one pumped at 10,000bopd and the other pumped at 100bopd.  Which would be more valuable?



I never said it wasn't if all things where equal. 
Of course if everything is equal i.e. costs of operation then more speed (or bopd) is going to be better.  But thats never the reality because so many variables come into play such as drilling difficult ground, transport costs, operational costs. As I mentioned the fundamentals of a company like CVN is "profit" to be made from the "recoverable reserve". Recoverable reserve of course encompasses everything from the drilling, transport to final sale.

In the ultimate scheme of things the bopd rating per hole means nothing if the well is dry in a years time. Sure it makes for "flashy" announcements that cause speculators to buy stock but in truth if the recoverable reserve is small then thats the death nail for valuation of the company.


----------



## Rob 17 (22 November 2007)

Looks like the share price has stabilised.  The nervous nelly's have sold out and learnt a hard lesson  .  Looking forward to some news at the AGM as to the direction they see the company going in the near future. 

I still cant belive it was sold off so heavily after a positive result as it was rising steadily on good results. 

dyor


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## imaginator (22 November 2007)

I read that they said the market condition now resembles the 1987 stock tumble. (time to sell?) I am going to sell most of my other stocks which are still in the money.

However I've been topping up CVN, making my average 0.54.

I am eager for the new reports to come out again.

Maybe this is a time to buy again?


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## Riles (23 November 2007)

Nice support coming in at the end of the week here.
Seems not everyone thinks the markets are going to self implode overnight and next week will be business as usual -  which just happens to bring with it an AGM and results of 2 more wells...

Bought more at 46.5 and 47.5 for the rebound.


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## kransky (26 November 2007)

from POE this evening...

L44H-D1 (60% WI & Operator)

Deviated well L44H-D1 has reached a total measured depth ("MD") of 1,217 meters, 866 meters true vertical depth ("TVD"), at a subsurface location approximately 700 meters north (this was incorrectly stated as south in the November 19 press release) of the oil producing L44-H well location. The top of the main volcanic was penetrated at a depth of approximately 1,016 meters MD (755 meters TVD) with over 200 meters measured thickness *(111 meters true thickness) of the target volcanic reservoir penetrated.* The drill bit was still within the main target volcanic reservoir when the decision was made to terminate the well. L44H-D1 is the structurally highest volcanic reservoir penetration within the Na Sanun East field encountered to date. Total drilling fluid losses of 9,385 bbls at rates of 100 to 260 bbls/hr were observed while drilling through the main target. Wiper trips at 1,155 meters MD and 1,217 meters MD resulted in oil to surface.

Testing is anticipated to be completed within the next 2 weeks.

NS6-D1A Sidetrack (60% WI & Operator)

The Aztec #7 rig has been on standby, awaiting pump repairs, since setting casing just above target on deviated well NS6-D1A. These repairs are expected to be completed shortly with total depth anticipated to be reached within 5 days of the continuation of drilling.

WICHIAN BURI-1 "DEEP" (60% WI & Operator)

The Aztec #14 rig is expected to rig up and drill ahead within 8 days on the moderate risk, high impact WB-1 (Deep) exploration well, located 25 meters west of the original WB-1 well. *WB-1 (Deep) will be targeting an approximately 220 meter thick volcanic* at a depth of 1,503 meters. This interval was penetrated by the original WB-1 well in 1988, resulting in severe lost circulation with approximately 20,000 bbls of drilling fluid losses that were associated with very high mud gas readings while drilling through the potential volcanic reservoir. Subsequent sidewall cores taken over this interval indicated oil staining. *This deeper volcanic zone was never properly evaluated by the earlier operator as the shallower, conventional F sandstone reservoir tested oil at 500 bopd.*

Drilling is anticipated to take approximately 21-28 days to completion.


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## JTLP (27 November 2007)

So is this a good or bad thing?

I'm new to all this so please fill me in.

From what you've pasted and bolded it sounds bad


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## Riles (27 November 2007)

Sounds like they have just found a potentially huge reservoir - and it contains oil
Oooh I'm getting excited....calm down now, there's 2 weeks to wait for this one now!

And now they're into Wichian Buri already!
I'm happy to see them targeting the outer exploration areas now whilst there are still transport issues. Seems like a good time to start sending down a few probes to see what's out there.

Exciting times ahead!


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## doogie_goes_off (27 November 2007)

Yep, production is one thing but for the company(ies) to expand they need to test the broader potential of the basin(s). The long term outlook is looking quite rosy. The main thing is that there has been consistent positive intersections from the same trap horizon which means they have a model that works for their local targetting and now they are also prepared to step out. That makes CVN a good bet each way.


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## doogie_goes_off (29 November 2007)

Good news for holders of CVN with the CEO indicating that in January they expect to be able to deliver the current production of 6000bpd to market (current delivery capacity of 4500bpd). Presumably this means they've got some trucks lined up. Production cost of $6 a barrel is pretty outstanding. I think that there is potential for a rise in share price based on these figures alone ie: once they announce they are delivering all current production to the market they will have proved that they can cope with increasing capacity which is fundamental given the amount of potential they are showing for further discoveries! Obviously new drilling results will almost certainly be available by then but it just gives you confidence that they will make things work.


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## INORE (29 November 2007)

yep it looks like they are going to expand oil transport on a regular basis, so one would imagine they have a staggered order of oil tankers over the next year so as to avoid any delays.  I thought it was very positive presentation with a lot of high expectations of future production.  Will look forward to seeing the new reserves update due in december.


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## MS+Tradesim (29 November 2007)

Ignoring capex for the moment, say they are getting about US$70bbl (discounted to sweet crude due to high paraffin content) and opex $6bbl and at fully diluted about 680m shares then eps should be about 2400bopd x US$64 x 365 = US$0.082 or AUD$0.091 (at exchange rate of 90c for AUD) late Jan once full production is available for sale. (And we still don't even know the flow rates of the current two wells) Basic PE of say x10 gives rough sp of around 90c. Even taking into account capex we are currently significantly undervalued IMO.


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## doogie_goes_off (29 November 2007)

Inore and MS+Tradesim have hit it on the head (pity I cant express myself better). The fundamentals are - current and expanded production in Dec/January excluding current drilling (which is an unknown) should produce a nice little profit that could keep rolling in for a while yet. How long this will be for will become evident once they announce the reserve estimates. Bring on the new dicoveries!


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## wipz (29 November 2007)

AGM was great, im getting excited about BO RANG.
To be drilled in Q2 2008, cant wait!!

I asked a question about carnarvon basin action, and L20/50 application. Ted didnt give too much away, however the Rialto guys seemed pretty excited .

Cheers

ps. they were giving out free t-shirts, and i got one   o/


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## grace (29 November 2007)

Thank you so much for the analysis on this company.  I bought in a couple of days ago at 50c for the first time in this one.  Had to weigh up between this and AED.....this one came up trumps in my books.  It seems like their story is just beginning to unfold!  This might seem like a dumb question, but will they eventually build a pipeline for this oil to the refinery?  One should hope so.  I just see no mention of that.


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## wipz (29 November 2007)

grace said:


> Thank you so much for the analysis on this company.  I bought in a couple of days ago at 50c for the first time in this one.  Had to weigh up between this and AED.....this one came up trumps in my books.  It seems like their story is just beginning to unfold!  This might seem like a dumb question, but will they eventually build a pipeline for this oil to the refinery?  One should hope so.  I just see no mention of that.




you've made the right choice.. welcome aboard

Its cheaper just to truck for the time being, the wells are approximately 300km away from the refinery which is about 3 hrs drive. The roads are of good quality.

Unless we have a very significant find and major increase in barrels per day, IMO that no pipe will be needed.
It is a very good question however, one that was not mentioned in the AGM.   One to ask at next years AGM perhaps?


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## INORE (29 November 2007)

grace said:


> Thank you so much for the analysis on this company.  I bought in a couple of days ago at 50c for the first time in this one.  Had to weigh up between this and AED.....this one came up trumps in my books.  It seems like their story is just beginning to unfold!  This might seem like a dumb question, but will they eventually build a pipeline for this oil to the refinery?  One should hope so.  I just see no mention of that.




I beleive they wont be able to pipe the oil as it has a high wax content which would eventually restrict flow...however i am unsure if there is technology available to bypass this problem via an additive or heating the pipeline or regular maintanence....


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## wipz (29 November 2007)

INORE said:


> I beleive they wont be able to pipe the oil as it has a high wax content which would eventually restrict flow...however i am unsure if there is technology available to bypass this problem via an additive or heating the pipeline or regular maintanence....




They do keep the oil heated on site before trucking to the refinery, i agree piping straight to the refinery will not be possible without some sort of heating.


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## 1234 (30 November 2007)

Next year does look good.. 

It's just a shame that cash flow from results of the next 10 drill results will not be seen until a major increase in storage/transport is achieved.

I see they will be meeting today's production req's in Jan, that's great although...... we could be producing an additional 5000bopd by then, nearly doubling todays' production.

This was always going to be a problem and a longer term 'fix' is needed. I see in each qtr they increase storage - but by how much? It doesn't bother me an over amount but it will affect how the market treats the stock. 

I doubt we'll see the sharp rises in sp like before until the cash flow is realized.. 

Seems it will be a steady growing stock from now without too much influence from the volatility in the market..

I'm now closing the bottom draw, with CVN tucked riiiiiggght up the back where no-one can touch it


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## Dukey (30 November 2007)

MS+Tradesim said:


> Ignoring capex for the moment, say they are getting about US$70bbl (discounted to sweet crude due to high paraffin content) and opex $6bbl and at fully diluted about 680m shares then eps should be about 2400bopd x US$64 x 365 = US$0.082 or AUD$0.091 (at exchange rate of 90c for AUD) late Jan once full production is available for sale. (And we still don't even know the flow rates of the current two wells) Basic PE of say x10 gives rough sp of around 90c. Even taking into account capex we are currently significantly undervalued IMO.




sounds great MS+T! - but.... hold on - current production is 6000 bpd (4500 delivered) isn't it??
...make the figures look even better!!
Not sure what kind of PE should be used for these new oilers though. Any suggestions there folks?


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## doogie_goes_off (30 November 2007)

Dukey - as the operator I think you'll find CVN own 40% of that 6000bpd which is 2400bpd, so the original excitement is all that is required!


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## MS+Tradesim (30 November 2007)

Dukey said:


> sounds great MS+T! - but.... hold on - current production is 6000 bpd (4500 delivered) isn't it??
> ...make the figures look even better!!
> Not sure what kind of PE should be used for these new oilers though. Any suggestions there folks?




Hi Dukey,

They only have a 40% share, so 2400bpod net to CVN when they are delivering 6000bpod. POE hold the 60% share.


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## Dukey (30 November 2007)

doogie_goes_off said:


> Dukey - as the operator I think you'll find CVN own 40% of that 6000bpd which is 2400bpd, so the original excitement is all that is required!




Ahhhh I see - sorry folks - stupid mistake - forgot that bit didn't I !!!!!
Doh Doh Doh (ad infinitum)

padding padding padding...


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## doogie_goes_off (30 November 2007)

Don't worry Dukey, some of us even buy on such excitement and forget to research. I'm slowly getting used to sitting back and watching the stocks I think I should buy, sure you miss a few, but you snag the fundamentally good ones at the price you want!


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## INORE (30 November 2007)

looks like their future JV is getting confident on winning the new lease...

Sun Resources raises funds as JV bids for Thai block
Wednesday, November 28, 2007; Posted: 09:01 PM 

More Breaking News about SNRDF  
 Sun Resources 1-for-6 underwritten issue at 7c a share 

 IBM offers free Microsoft Office rival 

 UAW-GM contract talks continue 

 DivX Technology to be Added to PLAYSTATION(R)3 

  Click here for More News >> 


More Resources for SNRDF  
 PowerRatings (for Traders) 

 PowerRatings (for Investors)  

 Quotes & Charts  



Sydney, Nov 29, 2007 (RWE via COMTEX) -- SNRDF | charts | news | PowerRating -- (RWE Australian Business News) Sun Resources NL (ASX:SUR) has resolved to place up to 25.88m shares at 9.5c each to clients of Hartleys Ltd, raising $2.46m. 

The placement will be made pursuant to ASX Listing Rule 7.1, which relates to Sun's 15pc placement capacity. 

Carnarvon Petroleum NL (ASX:CVN) and Sun are the sole bidders for the L20/50 tender block, onshore Thailand. 

Operator Carnarvon has advised Sun that the joint venture will be required to have in place a $US4.25m ($A4.83m) bond at the time of the formal signing of acceptance of the bid contract for exploration of L20/50. 

This bond reflects the bid first three-year work program and will be released as the work commitments are fulfilled. 

The placement enables Sun to immediately submit its half-share of the bond in respect of the Thailand onshore block if and when grant is received, so that fieldwork can commence in the New Year.

http://www.tradingmarkets.com/.site/news/Stock News/865979/


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## imaginator (30 November 2007)

Does the current oil price of like $90 - $99 barel affect CVN?

i hope oil price will remain high, should I be hoping that?


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## chewy (30 November 2007)

yeah but as others have said they have a fairly high wax content so its sold at a discount - getting around $70 a barrel i think. 

High oil price helps generate more $ per oil barrel but also has the effect of increasing costs/inflation in the general economy, which in turn hurts general market sentiment so a bit of a double edged sword. But really oil isn't going to get cheaper in the long term and demand is increasing whilst supplies are dropping so a good oil company like CVN is a no brainer imo. 

(but I am a noob so could all be wrong!)


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## grace (30 November 2007)

In only 50 years we have used 50% of the worlds oil stocks, with the remaining 50% being the harder to find stuff.  I can see only one way for oil prices to go in the long-term and that is up.  I watched a documentary on the ABC about oil deposits etc and this is what I specifically remember from that.
The world would have to come up with a better alternative quickly for demand not to continue at current pace.  Also, one analyst predicted that fuel at the bowser would be $10 per litre in about 9.5 years time.
This is why I am bullish on oil stocks.  Hopefully my children will thank me for it...but they will also be asking.....how could you have possibly used all of that oil up in such a short time?????
I guess this post should be in the general oil thread if there is one!


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## cgf (30 November 2007)

Great AGM. Ted made it was clear that he never thought at last years AGM that CVN would be so far ahead of his projected target goals. Its also worth noting that Ted mentioned they are looking at "all" the Thailand refinery options as their production obviously continues to increase. As he mentioned this is a great problem to have (i.e. too much oil) as its far better than "not having" any oil. His 2P (proved,probable) oil reserves of 50+ million barrels net to CVN will soon be upgraded as their seems to be a strong confidence that their strike rate will continue through out 2008.

His original 2006 targets where more targeting sandstones, which has now changed to his priority being volcanics. After gaining 2007 exploration knowledge the excitement over the targeted WB-1 (Deep) could clearly be seen. He went over why they now believe their Thailand fields volcanics could be far better than they ever first thought.

Loved how he said CVN in a far better oil reserve position than TAP which has been strong lately.


> Tap shares have returned to favour after a poor first (June) half loss of $280,000, the result of higher operating costs. But Tap's production rate - based on its 12.5 per cent interest in the Harriet joint venture and 15 per cent stake in the Woollybutt field - met expectations.
> 
> Tap's priority is to supplement its scant reserve position of 7.5 million barrels. Underwood admits Taps' exploration efforts in the past have "lacked technical rigour". In other words, they weren't looking for oil in the right place. "We are all about trying to deliver reserves and are on the right path to improve reserves in the near term." - The Australian - Tim Boreham | October 17, 2007


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## Riles (1 December 2007)

cgf said:


> His 2P (proved,probable) oil reserves of 50+ million barrels net to CVN will soon be upgraded



According to my notes from the AGM PDF, 2P reserves for the NS East area for the JV are currently 2.83mmbbls - a far cry from 50+ mmbbls net to CVN.
Their 3P reserves are 30+mmbbls.
Of course I'm expecting a significant upgrade to their 2P reserves, but where did you hear 50+ million barrels?

I'd love to be able to work out a valuation for CVN but - apart from my limited knowledge in this area - there's scant information available.

What do we know apart from 2400 bopd and $6 Opex?

How much are they actually getting per barrel?

How much is the Capex per barrel?
$1m per well - is that nett to CVN or the cost to the JV?

How much are they paying for royalties right now and later? "Sliding scale" doesn't mean much. Is it 30% or 45%...?
Will it go higher or lower with more production?

What % tax are they paying?

The only thing I could glean from the presentation is they average 800bopd per well, which pays back the $1m well cost in 2 months.
So 60 days @ 800bopd = 48,000 barrels to pay back $1m means $20.80 per barrel profit.

So my inept reckoning going by that:
say $20 per barrel for 2P reserves of say 3m barrels, of which CVN get 1.2mmbbls  = $24m divided by 680m shares = 3.5c per share. Give a PER of 10 (realistic given their 3P reserves are currently 30mmbbls) gives us 35c per share.

Of course this all depends on
a) the actual net profit per barrel
b) the actual upgraded proven & probable reserves which we won't know till Jan sometime.

Jeff Chisholm in his recent POE presentation suggested up to 42mmbbls recoverable from NS East field.

So using the same figures as above would give us:
42*40%=16.8mmbbls net to CVN @ $20 =$336m / 680m shares = 49.4c. Which is a p/e of 1.

So the next reserves upgrade for Na Sanun East will have a big impact on their valuation.

And then there's Wichian Buri.
And Bo Rang
And Si Thep
And JV with SUR

I don't profess to know what I'm talking about here. I'm really just looking for answers...


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## kransky (1 December 2007)

The ann from 31/10/07 (Sept Qtrly) has the revenue at US$60 per barrel. Oil prices are higher now so its probably around US$70 now.

From a poster on HC who was at the AGM, the royalties are sliding scale from 5% to 12.5%. Thailand company tax rates are apparently complex. but from a quick search on the web it looks like its 30%.. ??

I dont understand the figure of taking 2 months to repay each well...

revenue per well per day = 800 * 70 = 56,000
minus 12.5% royalty = 56,000 * 0.875 = 49,000
costs per well per day = 800 * 6 = 4,800
profit per well per day = 49,000 - 4,800 = 44,200
after tax profit per well per day = 0.7 * 442,000 = 30940
CVN share of profit = 40% * 30940 = 12,376
well cost repayment period = 1,000,000 / 12,376 = 80 days

if you assume well cost for CVN is 40% * 1M = 400k
well cost repayment period = 400,000 / 12,376 = 32 days

cant work it out. maybe they are using long term average oil prices and not the current peak prices... 

lets take a more conservative oil price of 60.
(60-6) * 2400 * 365 * 0.875 * 0.7 = 28.9M per annum after tax profit (Excluding well costs)

28.9*a PE of 15 = 433M => 65c SP.. but this is excluding well drilling costs...


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## lazyfish (1 December 2007)

kransky said:


> The ann from 31/10/07 (Sept Qtrly) has the revenue at US$60 per barrel. Oil prices are higher now so its probably around US$70 now.
> 
> From a poster on HC who was at the AGM, the royalties are sliding scale from 5% to 12.5%. Thailand company tax rates are apparently complex. but from a quick search on the web it looks like its 30%.. ??
> 
> ...




Thailand tax is 50%, that should bring the number closer to their estimate.  

(60-6) * 2400 * 365 * 0.875 * 0.5 = 20.7M PER of 15 is 310M. 60 probably isn't really a fair number to use, though.


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## Riles (1 December 2007)

Thanks Kransky and Lazyfish.
Now we're getting somewhere.

So using Lazyfish's formula we can assume:
$60 per barrel, less $6 opex, less 12.5% royalty, less 50% tax and give a per of 15.
So at 2400 bopd equals 45.5 cps

$70 per barrel would equate to 54 cps.

I note this still doesn't include Capex which would bring it down a bit more.

Let's look ahead to potential for next year:
20-30 more wells, say 25.
Capex therefore $25m
Possible strike rate of 50%, say 10 wells at 800bopd would add another 8000 bopd (net 3200 to CVN)

Could be looking at a total of 5600 per day which @ $60 per barrel would give SP target of over $1.00.

I'm happy with all those figures - especially the last one!


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## cgf (2 December 2007)

Riles said:


> According to my notes from the AGM PDF, 2P reserves for the NS East area for the JV are currently 2.83mmbbls - a far cry from 50+ mmbbls net to CVN.
> Their 3P reserves are 30+mmbbls.
> Of course I'm expecting a significant upgrade to their 2P reserves, but where did you hear 50+ million barrels?



Im sorry Ive got to be careful about how I "word my posts" as you cant correct it once its posted. Ted pointed it out after the presentation - its forms part of the 2007 Annual report. It is CVNs reserve estimate at a un-risked 2P confidence level on all reserves within CVNs Thailand assets. 

All shareholders must remember that in the 2006 exploration (and subsequent Dec06 2P reserves) they where only chasing the low flow sandstones of Wichian Buri. What was anticipated (in Nov 2006) for the 2007 season was to put as many wells into Wichian Buri (at low cost) to get more bopd. Their aim was 2500bopd by this years AGM with self funded exploration taken out of cash flow.

The dramatic change came when Ted wanted to risk doing the wildcat hole POE9 down at Na Sanun East. He told everyone at the 2006 AGM that POE9 was a big gamble and that finding recoverable oil requires a whole lot of luck.

So the important thing to take into account is the 2.83mmbbls at 2P level was all done before the NS3D1, L44GD1, L44G, L44H wells at Na Sanun & Na Sanun East. 

As per the Annual report. In the 3mths to June 2007 they where showing a US$26.92 cash profit per bbl with the oil price @ US$50.24 bbl. Ted did say they are still trying to get their head around the sliding scale royalties as they can be complex. I am sure it will be announced once the bean counters find out what effects them and what doesn't. They also have big tax losses from previous years which will come in handy since the money is pouring in.

As an 20+ yr driller the truth is that it will take all of the 2008/2009 exploration seasons to really get a realistic idea on how big the reserves will be. The update to the reserve in Dec/Jan will no doubt give a big boost, but the full story for CVN is not a day traders paradise. With 2 rigs and now 8,000sq kms (within the Petchabun Basin) they will not be in a position to know the limitations of what they have for quite some time.

I take it from talks to the directors that they are looking hard at pushing their story to gain interest from financial institutions. This will help soak up some of the mess they inherited from the old directors shenanigans. I think Ted said there where something like 6000 shareholders for the 660million odd shares with 82% of these under the 100,000 parcel size.

Out of all the AGM talk it was good to hear confirmation that the deal/s that Ted has been working on since he joined CVN are still on target. Although he couldn't say what is being done .... in his words "these deals will dramatically effect CVNs standing". As a long term shareholder I couldn't think of anyone I would rather have leading my stock than Ted Jacobson.


----------



## Riles (3 December 2007)

Good one CGF, thanks for taking the time to post that.

RE: the 50 million barrels


> Ted pointed it out after the presentation - it forms part of the 2007 Annual report. It is CVNs reserve estimate at a un-risked 2P confidence level on all reserves within CVNs Thailand assets.




POE's Jeff Chisholm sugested Na Sanun could be second only to Shell's Sirikit oil field which has been producing since 1992 - so far over 200 million barrels.
So it seems to me 50 million barrels would be within the realms of probability.


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## cgf (3 December 2007)

Riles said:


> Good one CGF, thanks for taking the time to post that.
> 
> RE: the 50 million barrels
> 
> ...



Although nothing is 100% till its in the bag, I have a gut feeling that 2nd will at least prove to be factual within the 2008 exploration period. The "potential" for the equivalent of another Sirikit sized oil field within the Petchabun Basin (going on 2007 geology/return/strike rates) is also IMO within the bounds or rational reasoning. 

Im not sure of Jeffs credentials but Ted is extremely well respected and very well known throughout the petroleum world as one of the best hands on oil men in the biz. His many home runs are well documented especially when it comes to finding oil and building companies from the ground up (like TAP oil). I remember when CVN first talked about asking Ted to look at the company. As he himself will tell you he is a technical based "oil man" not a beancounter so when asked about money he jokes and says you should talk to Peter. His big drive is for finding oil and building a strong technical based petroleum company. The two easiest decisions Ive had to make as far as CVN was concerned was voting out the old board and putting Ted in as CEO.  

As people who have talked and seen Ted do presentations know, he is very reserved and very conservative in what he says. When has enough confidence to say 50+ million barrels nett to CVN at a 2P confidence level you can bet its not a pie in the sky figure plucked from a marketing guru. This is from CVN who are known to be ultra conservative. One thing that is very clear with the whole CVN board is they have no interest in a "speculative based" sudden explosion of the SP. If you want to buy into that you get into speculative stocks like FDL, RAU etc and hold onto your hats as the roller coaster takes you on a ride.

From an investment stand point the CVN board are very keen to pull in a much stronger institutional support base for their 660mil stock and I am positive that this will happen in the short term. 6000 shareholders with the vast majority holding less than 100,000 is not going to be the trend going forward. CVNs board has no interest in speculative pricing that day traders love. The board want to see a slow steady climb for its long term shareholders which reflects the true value of its assets. 

I recommend to family and friends many different stocks depending on how bigger risk they are willing to take and how soon they want to see a return. But if they want a sure thing for their long term investment (like their superfunds) my first recommendation is that they buy as many CVN shares as they can, because in five years or so the SP will not be recognisable vs todays low pricing. I believe within 2008 CVN will reflect more of its real worth as the day traders look elsewhere for their speculation. With CVN you will see more a market pattern like my other oil/gas stock OSH and WPL.


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## INORE (3 December 2007)

anyone see the latest Hartleys evaluation at *89c*    well thats a bit more like it...after settling at around 50 for so long, it will be nice to see a well deserved climb...its still allmost 40% cheaper than their evaluation  sheesh


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## MS+Tradesim (3 December 2007)

http://www.carnarvon.com.au/docs/Hartleys031207.pdf

Haven't read it yet myself but here it is for those who want to.


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## kransky (3 December 2007)

This is a great read for holders of CVN stock

here is the last paragraph:

"We believe that CVN is significantly undervalued based on our 89cps valuation and feel that there is significant further upside to this valuation as the Company expands its development, appraisal and exploration activities in Thailand and is also able to more aggressively explore other opportunities. Due to strong production, another busy year with strong news flow and high exposure to exploration upside in CY2008 we have re rated Carnarvon Petroleum Limited from a Speculative Buy to a Buy."

http://www.carnarvon.com.au/docs/Hartleys031207.pdf


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## cgf (3 December 2007)

INORE said:


> anyone see the latest Hartleys evaluation at *89c*    well thats a bit more like it...after settling at around 50 for so long, it will be nice to see a well deserved climb...its still allmost 40% cheaper than their evaluation  sheesh



I have a pretty big portfolio and a watch list that covers a whole lot of stock. CVN is by far and away the most undervalued stock that I know of (based on real world worth). Actually I look at so many of my watch lists and can see many SP's that are so out of whack with reality that its quite alarming. I cant understand why you would hold obviously overpriced stock as you risk being the only one without a chair when the music stops (and it will).

Besides needing or being desperate for money I would love to hear why anyone would be selling CVN based on anything since the exploration started in March 2007? There has been nothing but positive after positive moves by CVN since POE9 in late 2006. Read how many dusters other oil companies deliver day after day and you may then see what a rarity hitting deliverable oil is.

Until CVN shakes off the day traders they will remain vulnerable to speculative good news bad news sell offs. Lets hope the institutions come in heavy and gobble up 2000-3000 of these small shareholders so then the share price can indicate the true fundamentals of CVN. The reality is most don't even know what they have, as they simply cant see past the latest flow announcements and so buy/sell based solely on the latest news.

Trouble with CVN is conservatism, I extrapolated their projections from the 2005 AGM and they go and exceed them within the 2006 period. They then did even better in the 2007 period and simply blew away all their projections and expectations. 

I'm a sucker for punishment so Ive now done my new 2008 projections based on CVNs conservative numbers, and its indicates that Hartleys will no doubt upgrade the 0.89c once the 1st quarter 2008 release of the new reserves/drilling become official. The future looks very good, and with more press exposure I hope it will attract the big boys into the stock which will help stabilize things.


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## MS+Tradesim (3 December 2007)

I hear you CGF. As I read through Hartley's report I kept thinking "But what about....? But what about...........?" They even state in it at least two times that they are using very conservative assumptions.


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## cgf (4 December 2007)

MS+Tradesim said:


> I hear you CGF. As I read through Hartley's report I kept thinking "But what about....? But what about...........?" They even state in it at least two times that they are using very conservative assumptions.



One of the parts often overlooked is the "license restrictions" they have had in both drilling and increasing facilities especially with such a big increase in flow rates. With Thailand wanting more oil exploration (due to it having to rely on imported oil) this is only a formality but it has been a constraint, although one soon be lifted.


> Resources Analyst
> David Wall
> Ph: +61 8 9268 2826
> david_wall@hartleys.com.au
> ...


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## INORE (4 December 2007)

cgf said:


> I have a pretty big portfolio and a watch list that covers a whole lot of stock. CVN is by far and away the most undervalued stock that I know of (based on real world worth). Actually I look at so many of my watch lists and can see many SP's that are so out of whack with reality that its quite alarming. I cant understand why you would hold obviously overpriced stock as you risk being the only one without a chair when the music stops (and it will).
> 
> Besides needing or being desperate for money I would love to hear why anyone would be selling CVN based on anything since the exploration started in March 2007? There has been nothing but positive after positive moves by CVN since POE9 in late 2006. Read how many dusters other oil companies deliver day after day and you may then see what a rarity hitting deliverable oil is.
> 
> ...




CGF....i agree on the comparison to the oilers i have traded for years (AZZ  ADI and some others)....a friend of mine told me what a dog he thought CVN was when it was 18c and he bought for 23c ... after doing a little more research i couldnt beleive what i saw was about to happen...they were in a politically stable country, had good management and they were starting to get hits on their drills. now compared to others whose oil discoveries have taken years and years...CVN have done that in 12 months or so...at times i have thought about getting rid of some but then i remind myself of the fundamentals here and what another poster said a while back that ' cvn was hopefully going to be his woodside'...i will be happy to hold this stock for at least another 2-3 years and am hoping that the developement of their current and future fields just keep on adding and adding to their reserves.


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## cgf (4 December 2007)

INORE said:


> CGF....i agree on the comparison to the oilers i have traded for years (AZZ  ADI and some others)....a friend of mine told me what a dog he thought CVN was when it was 18c and he bought for 23c ... after doing a little more research i couldnt beleive what i saw was about to happen...they were in a politically stable country, had good management and they were starting to get hits on their drills. now compared to others whose oil discoveries have taken years and years...CVN have done that in 12 months or so...at times i have thought about getting rid of some but then i remind myself of the fundamentals here and what another poster said a while back that ' cvn was hopefully going to be his woodside'...i will be happy to hold this stock for at least another 2-3 years and am hoping that the developement of their current and future fields just keep on adding and adding to their reserves.



The key to CVN is not actually the Thai JVs "its Ted" and his ability to do deals. I know so many other oil companies have been chasing Ted for years, they all want his knowledge and technical skill and hence why CVN will be offered joint venture deals that will make Thai look like small potatoes. I remember back at the 2005 AGM talking to other shareholders and noted that many where in/been in the oil biz. I got the same response from many when I asked why did you invest in CVN? The answer was alway Ted is now the new CEO and he is excited by the challenge so its a no brainer. His departure from TAP has left an enormous hole in TAPs technical skill which is why TAP has not forfilled its early promise and why a certain group is in the process of gaining control to sort out the fundamentals TAP lacks.

I'm a hell of a lot older than most here so I guess I look at things from a patient more long term view point. I feel a lot like an old bull looking at a paddock full of cows next door, rather than busting through the fence I would prefer to stoll down and use the gate. 

I always look if the company is sound and has the "right management", drive and fundamentals to expand. Except if its the occasional "in and out" in a bull market (which I except the risk) I don't invest in anything I don't research heavily. My mins are 5 years for 99.9% of my portfolio. After much research I first brought into my WPL stock about 22yrs ago for under $1.90 and that investment over those years has been very good, but even though I had my naysayers at the time I could see the stock had potential because the fundamentals where clear. I first brought into CVN at 0.02c and I can tell you I will still hold significant CVN in 2015 because I can see where they will be and the fact that Ted will have achieved his vision by the time he retires (about then).

Investment on the ASX is all I do as I gave up working for a living decades ago. I must admit I enjoy the internet and I take an avid interest in the market sentiment, but the reality is it doest matter if its 0.45 one day and 1.80 the next because its what it is in 5 or 6 yrs time that is relevant to me. Your profit is only dictated by when you choose to sell, so the daily fluctuations are just fodder to talk about.

My perfect stock is CVN with 2000 shareholders controlling the 660m shares keeping the speculators away so we can let Ted do his thing.


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## jonojpsg (4 December 2007)

Hi CGF,
I know this is probably impertinent, but when you say you are a hell of a lot older than most of us, what age bracket does that put you in?  I'm just interested as I figure once you get to a certain point surely you'd want to just sit back and enjoy spending your money rather than keep adding to it?  Of course it is always nice to have more to spend I suppose, and I admit I really enjoy researching and investing so will probably still be doing it when I'm as old as you


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## cgf (4 December 2007)

jonojpsg said:


> Hi CGF,
> I know this is probably impertinent, but when you say you are a hell of a lot older than most of us, what age bracket does that put you in?  I'm just interested as I figure once you get to a certain point surely you'd want to just sit back and enjoy spending your money rather than keep adding to it?  Of course it is always nice to have more to spend I suppose, and I admit I really enjoy researching and investing so will probably still be doing it when I'm as old as you



Don't worry I spend and enjoy my money with lots of cars and houses. I had kids very very late (after which the ex wife cost me big time) so really I should have had even sillier amounts. As far as age, put it this way Im quite a bit older than any of the board members of CVN. Obviously I could never spend all my money (even if I tried), but my 4 kids will be able to pay cash for their first houses and yet still have an excellent portfolio to keep them out of trouble for the rest of their lives. 

The ASX and my interest in the economics of the world keep me pretty busy. Not being a gardener, hating bowls I continue do what Ive been good at all my life and that is making my money make more money. Its not hard work like what I started off doing in the first 28 years of my life. The secret is not to need the money you invest, do in depth homework and most of all be patient.


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## camaybay (4 December 2007)

CGF,
A boat is more economical than a wife, or upgrades there of (you can trade a boat ). If the market is good and as you have been sailing well for quite a few quality years then you need a luxury cruiser, and internet satellite connection! !

Cheers


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## JTLP (4 December 2007)

CGF you always make me happy when I read what you write about CVN. I get disheartened quite easily when the SP rocks back and forth, then I stroll onto ASF and bam, you have restored my faith (DW i do my own research its just nice to have information put into other words as well).

Out of curiousity, you say CVN is headed for an increase, but for how long do you think it will track sideways before lifting? And at what current resistance level does it need to surpass? 

Thanks =)


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## cgf (5 December 2007)

camaybay said:


> CGF,
> A boat is more economical than a wife, or upgrades there of (you can trade a boat ). If the market is good and as you have been sailing well for quite a few quality years then you need a luxury cruiser, and internet satellite connection! !
> 
> Cheers



If I lived in QLD with the Witsundays I would have had a nice 70ft launch, but in Perth you only really have Rotto which gets a little monotonous. In May/June 2008 I will do another 20+ day first class cruise through the Mediterranean which is very relaxing (along with my laptop to keep track on the market)

Truth is anything is cheaper than a wife, both money wise and on your sanity. Being a male with years of experience I long gave up on trying to work out women, its better I stick to the stock market which makes more sense and is far easier to understand. 

I have a great laptop with 3G wireless broadband so I can get the market almost anywhere now.


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## shaunm (5 December 2007)

Nice to see CVN picking up some ground again. Up 4.5c at the mo which put a smile on my dial. I hope all the positive predictions for these guys come to fruition.


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## cgf (5 December 2007)

Yes it is. Market is down, CVN SP up 8.7% along with the vol picking up. Good to see a few decent parcels going through rather than the dribs.


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## imaginator (5 December 2007)

cgf said:


> Yes it is. Market is down, CVN SP up 8.7% along with the vol picking up. Good to see a few decent parcels going through rather than the dribs.




Oh yeah! I always think this one should go above 70c. It was good news yesterday with the evaluation at 89c. 

Really this one has great potential.
Everynight I will imagine it already at 85c before I sleep, to apply Napoleon Hill's subconscious imprint method. heheh


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## MS+Tradesim (5 December 2007)

imaginator said:


> Oh yeah! I always think this one should go above 70c. It was good news yesterday with the evaluation at 89c.
> 
> Really this one has great potential.
> Everynight I will imagine it already at 85c before I sleep, to apply Napoleon Hill's subconscious imprint method. heheh





Or you could apply the David "The Secret" Schirmer method and add 000's to the end of your CHESS statement!  :

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=usbNJMUZSwo


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## imaginator (5 December 2007)

MS+Tradesim said:


> Or you could apply the David "The Secret" Schirmer method and add 000's to the end of your CHESS statement!  :
> 
> http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=usbNJMUZSwo




I m a believer in the power of our subconscious mind etc, but its a shame what Schirmer did to his investors. Did he add '000 to his statements too?

Hey no joking, last year my friend wanted to buy NRT, it was zig zagging sideways for a long time around the $4.5 mark, and he kept imagining it down so he could buy it. After a while it went to like $2, really really down. I didn't dare touch NRT after that.


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## chewy (5 December 2007)

Don't forget CVN almost always has a runup in SP just prior to Announcement (which is probably due tonight via POE) - lets hope its a good one!


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## Miner (5 December 2007)

Surely it will not be related to Thailand or SUR.
There was no movement in SUR with upwards movement in CVN.

Regards


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## wipz (6 December 2007)

I think the movement is due to 2 things:
a) we're approaching drilling results; and
b) hartleys re-rating.


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## austek (7 December 2007)

Well it's moving up now heading for top of wave 1 and with you guys making me drool I'll take some on the next dip.

I let PDN, FMG, RIV, MCC slip thru my fingers after getting in around the dollar mark and will see if I can do a better job with CVN


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## Rob 17 (7 December 2007)

I keep buying when the SP dips especially when its falls for no particular reason. It would be nice for fund managers to pick this one up so there’s not so much stock floating around.  

I will also feel a lot more comfortable when POE and CVN have the facilities to have production at peak performance.  

Do your own research  DYOR


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## 1234 (8 December 2007)

Monday will be very interesting if there's no ann pre market.. 


Wondering whether it will test rising higher into the 60's or nervous Nelly will halt it so we don't have a mass bail out if results aren't favorable. A couple of cents on no news isn't out of the question, 5-7% seems average per day on lead up to ann without being oversold ( like when she went to 66c! ) 

Will be keeping a very keen eye on it none the less.

Hartleys' quote 89c value. My interpretation of the charts say 70c by the end of nxt week if we get some oil by Tuesday.

?????

DYOR 
www.carnarvon.com.au


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## grace (8 December 2007)

cgf said:


> Yes it is. Market is down, CVN SP up 8.7% along with the vol picking up. Good to see a few decent parcels going through rather than the dribs.




cgf....I note from your posts that you first bought into CVN at 2c.  When you get that "2c CVN" feel about a stock, can you let us know.  That's a fantastic effort!  Well done!  I found CVN by searching EVERY company listed on the ASX, and checking for major upward movement %'s over a few years.  Then I put several on my watchlist and this is the first one I have bought.  Think I would like to pick up a bit earlier though.......


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## kerosam (8 December 2007)

a buy signal after than 63cts line i reckon. 

MACD cross & volume increasing.

 

ps:i don;t hold CVN.


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## INORE (11 December 2007)

well alls quiet on the cvn front...everyone on HC hoping for an announce tonite....some people thinking that a late announce is a chance of low flow rates as per the last announce BUT other people are confident that the area they are doing flow testing in and the fact that the roof of the structure is at the high end of town will see a great announce...personally i'm after any flow rates that help prove up the reserves as i'm holding long term.


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## chewy (12 December 2007)

ann just out - Merry Xmas to all CVN holders  L44H-D1 on Production at 3,940 bopd    :bier:  happy happy days 


Pan Orient Energy Corp.: Thailand: L44H-D1 on Production at 3,940 bopd

CALGARY, ALBERTA--(Marketwire - Dec. 12, 2007) - Pan Orient Energy Corp. (TSX VENTUREOE) -

NOT FOR DISSEMINATION TO U.S. NEWSWIRE SERVICES OR FOR DISSEMINATION IN THE UNITED STATES.

L44H-D1 (60% WI & Operator)

Deviated well L44H-D1 is flowing at a sustained, stabilized rate of approximately 3,940 barrels per day of 35.5 degree API oil with a water cut of 0.05%. The well is free flowing through casing and tubing with restricted choke setting of 38/64" and 26/64" respectively. Flowing wellhead pressures on casing and tubing remain high at 280-285 psi. Load out of oil tankers from the well location is the determining factor in not taking production higher at this stage.

Pan Orient has been informed by the Thailand Department of Mineral Fuels that this is the highest flow rate ever achieved by any oil well drilled onshore Thailand.

L44H-D1 reached a total measured depth ("MD") of 1,217 meters, 866 meters true vertical depth ("TVD"), at a subsurface location approximately 700 meters north of the oil producing L44-H well location within the central fault compartment of the NSE field. The top of the main volcanic was penetrated at a depth of approximately 1,016 meters MD (755 meters TVD) with over 200 meters measured thickness (111 meters true thickness) of the target volcanic reservoir penetrated. The drill bit was still within the main target volcanic reservoir when the decision was made to call total depth on the well. L44H-D1 is the structurally highest volcanic reservoir penetration within the NSE field encountered to date. Total drilling fluid losses of 9,385 bbls at rates of 100 to 260 bbls/hr were observed while drilling through the main target. Wiper trips at 1,155 meters MD and 1,217 meters MD had resulted in oil to surface. This was the third well drilled into NSE's central fault compartment.

These test results at L44H-D1 confirm an oil column at Na Sanun East ("NSE") of a minimum of 150 meters.

Looking forward, the implications of this well on NSE field development are significant. L44H-D1 was a highly deviated well (approximately 51 degrees) at the time it intersected the top of the main volcanic objective. Based on these results, consideration is being given to full NSE field development utilizing up to 12 horizontal wells, the potential advantages being: 1) maximum reservoir thickness penetration 2) improved access to the extensive fracture network 3) less drawdown at higher rates, and 4) greater distance between the well bore and the oil/water contact, likely reducing the time to water breakthrough.

NS6-D1A Sidetrack (60% WI & Operator)

Sidetracked well, NS6-D1A is free flowing 35.5 API oil at a stabilized pre-cleanup rate of 615 bopd with choke setting of 18/64" on both casing and tubing. Flowing wellhead pressures are between 150 and 120 psi and water cut is approximately 0.05%.

NS6-D1A is located within the south fault compartment of the NSE structural closure approximately 400 meters north of the original POE-9 discovery well. The well penetrated approximately 23 meters of the main volcanic target with mud losses at rates of 20 bbl/hr. This was the fifth well drilled into NSE's southern fault compartment.

WICHIAN BURI-1 "DEEP" (60% WI & Operator)

The Aztec #14 rig is drilling ahead at a depth of 900 meters after setting 9 5/8" casing at 362 meters. Drilling is anticipated to take approximately 8 days to reach total depth.

WB-1 (Deep) is targeting an approximately 220 meter thick volcanic at a depth of 1,503 meters. This interval was penetrated by the original WB-1 well in 1988, resulting in severe lost circulation with approximately 20,000 bbls of drilling fluid losses that were associated with very high mud gas readings while drilling through the potential volcanic reservoir. Subsequent sidewall cores taken over this interval indicated oil staining. This deeper volcanic zone was never properly evaluated by the earlier operator as the shallower, conventional F sandstone reservoir tested oil at 500 bopd.

Outlook

Current field production capacity is now greater than 10,000 bopd gross (6,000 bopd net to Pan Orient) with average deliveries to the refinery of between 5,500-6,000 bopd gross (3,300-3,600 bopd net), limited by the capacity of the tanker fleet. Delivery is anticipated to increase to 7,000 bopd gross (4,200 bopd net) in late December 2007. The use of a new loading bay at the existing refinery has been negotiated, bringing the refinery capacity up to approximately 10,000 bopd gross. Upon approval of the NSE production license by the Thailand Department of Mineral Fuels, a second refinery contract is anticipated to be signed, bringing the total refinery unloading capacity to over 20,000 bopd gross.

Pan Orient Thailand management continue working on a number of options to reduce the trucking capacity choke point as quickly as possible. This is a short term issue caused by well deliverabilities far in excess of initial expectations.


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## 1234 (12 December 2007)

Well done Chewy.

MASSIVE result. Absolutely MASSIVE

4600 bopb taking total to 10,000bopd

Merry Christmas!!!!!!!!!!


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## grace (12 December 2007)

Hi I'm Grace and I've just bought CVN a week or so ago, and I've been recommending to all my friends....I know some have bought....they will be happy too.  So many thanks to all who contribute here, my Christmas should be very merry!


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## Rob 17 (12 December 2007)

This is a victory for the true believers: the people who, in difficult times, have kept the faith.  

Well done guys!


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## doogie_goes_off (12 December 2007)

I would now like to urge all fellow holders to sit tight because this is going to be a good ride, with success like this and production still to be ramped up I see nothing but growth in the new year, may yours be a prosperous one.


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## benwex (12 December 2007)

doogie_goes_off said:


> I would now like to urge all fellow holders to sit tight because this is going to be a good ride, with success like this and production still to be ramped up I see nothing but growth in the new year, may yours be a prosperous one.




I dont want to be a downer but the share price of POE has not been affected by the anouncement. Last time I looked it was down 2.3%

Hope CVN has a better reaction tommorrow and lets hope the US does not have a shocker...

This subprime mess has really been a painful episode for us all.

benwex


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## 1234 (12 December 2007)

benwex said:


> I dont want to be a downer but the share price of POE has not been affected by the anouncement. Last time I looked it was down 2.3%
> 
> Hope CVN has a better reaction tommorrow and lets hope the US does not have a shocker...
> 
> ...




POE won't trade on this ann for another 3.5 hours.

Have another look at 11:45 AWST and get back to us.


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## Rob 17 (12 December 2007)

benwex said:


> I dont want to be a downer but the share price of POE has not been affected by the anouncement. Last time I looked it was down 2.3%
> 
> Hope CVN has a better reaction tommorrow and lets hope the US does not have a shocker...
> 
> ...




The anouncement was made not long ago benwex. If your up about 2am watch how the price of POE will be affected tonight.  

www.tsx.com 

DYOR


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## Rob 17 (12 December 2007)

Hartleys report that recommends CVN a    BUY   at   89cents   makes interesting reading now.

Drilling in the Na Sanun East field (“NSE”).
• Potential Flow Rates of *15,000 bopd by Dec 2008 *– The currently
producing zone in Na Sanun East will be fully appraised with
development commencing in 2008 following the award of a full
production license (expected around March). This will likely see
reserves upgrades and potential flow rates of 15,000 bopd by Dec
08.


Its *Dec 07 *and we already have *10,000 bopd*. 

DYOR


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## JTLP (12 December 2007)

Good Old Aussie Stocks. After reading the other forums I was becoming quite hesitant about my CVN holdings...with all their talks of late anns = bad news.
But whamo, she has a massive announcement.

I would sincerely like to thank the moderators of this forum. They keep it in check and pretty free of ramping, which is a blessing as it helps to make unclouded, conscious decisions, not choices made on hype. So thanks ASF...and GOOOOOOOO CVN!!!

Good luck to all holders


----------



## MS+Tradesim (12 December 2007)

Whoopieeeee!!!!!!!!!!!!!! Champagne for Christmas! Have a great one tomorrow guys!!!!!   Oh this is great!


----------



## 1234 (12 December 2007)

I know this means great news right now, and tomorrow.

Next year I'm sure CVN will cement as a genuine interest for investors alike.

Sleep tight, if you can...........................


----------



## MS+Tradesim (12 December 2007)

BTW, 1234 where do you find POE ann? I looked on tsx.com but couldn't find it under POE. Can you divulge your source?  

EDIT: Doh!!! Forget it...I found it. Just didn't look carefully enough. Cheers.


----------



## MS+Tradesim (13 December 2007)

Just noticed this tidbit in the ann:

_"Pan Orient has been informed by the Thailand Department of Mineral Fuels that this is the highest flow rate ever achieved by any oil well drilled onshore Thailand."_

With a minimum 150m oil column??!!


----------



## 1234 (13 December 2007)

MS+Tradesim said:


> BTW, 1234 where do you find POE ann? I looked on tsx.com but couldn't find it under POE. Can you divulge your source?
> 
> EDIT: Doh!!! Forget it...I found it. Just didn't look carefully enough. Cheers.




Yeah, Marketwire always releases early.

Congrats all holders!

Merry Christmas.

Gotta love how tight this stock is.. except the increased volume 2 days before each positive ann!!! predictable  I don't mind.. reassuring I call it..


----------



## Riles (13 December 2007)

WOW! how good is that!!
In one fell swoop they have just added over 4500 bopd

Sidetracked well, NS6-D1A is free flowing 35.5 API oil at a stabilized pre-cleanup rate of 615 bopd

and...
Deviated well L44H-D1 is flowing at a sustained, stabilized rate of approximately 3,940 barrels per day

and then...
These test results at L44H-D1 confirm an oil column at Na Sanun East ("NSE") of a minimum of 150 meters.

10,000 bopd now - 4,000 to CVN up from 2,500.
This is turning into something major and will have a big effect on reserves estimates. Not to mention cash flow - oh yeah and share price appreciation!!

Congrats to all holders. It doesn't get much better than this. More to come yet with WB deep targeting another 200m column.


----------



## Trader Paul (13 December 2007)

yogi-in-oz said:


> Posted 06062006:
> 
> Hi folks,
> 
> ...






Hi folks,

CVN ... congratulations to longer-term holders, who have shown faith
in the CVN "Thai Story" ... they have been duly rewarded ... 

... now, where's that self-proclaimed "geo guru", who said he wouldn't 
give a carton of beer for CVN stock, back when it was trading at less 
than 2 cents ... 

..... another "expert" eats his words ... !~!

happy days

paul

P.S. ..... and as a bonus, our astroanalysis tells us, that CVN
             will be BOOMING from around 25022008 - to - 07032008 ... !~!



=====


----------



## shaunm (13 December 2007)

So guys what are we expecting to happen today, anything like what happened when INP announced their oil find or something not quite as monumental?


----------



## doogie_goes_off (13 December 2007)

Quote: "So guys what are we expecting to happen today, anything like what happened when INP announced their oil find or something not quite as monumental?"

Hi ShaunM,
POE has stacked on $CA 1.40 or 14% or so, however as an overall oxposure CVN is leveraged better towards this project so we should see 70c plus IMO.


----------



## Rocket man (13 December 2007)

doogie_goes_off said:


> Quote: "So guys what are we expecting to happen today, anything like what happened when INP announced their oil find or something not quite as monumental?"
> 
> Hi ShaunM,
> POE has stacked on $CA 1.40 or 14% or so, however as an overall oxposure CVN is leveraged better towards this project so we should see 70c plus IMO.




Hi guys 
Inexperienced beginner here-  can someone plz tell me what IMO and JORC stands for ? 

Thanks


----------



## chewy (13 December 2007)

IMO = In My Opinion 

JORC = is the accepted standard/code for reporting on resources and reserves


----------



## imaginator (13 December 2007)

CVN baby! It's 0.715 now!

Seems more buyers than sellers too!

ANYONE HERE think its time to cash out and sell???????????????


I mean yesterday was only 0.56


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## MS+Tradesim (13 December 2007)

Check out the game playing in the order depth. Possibly a crazed bot. Also seems to be sell props at .73 and .735 (not visible on this pic tho)


----------



## imaginator (13 December 2007)

Ok guys, lets talk about the future of CVN. Anymore new drilling reports coming up? When is the next? How many next year?

I am happy I had faith in CVN, it gave me a return of 30% in about 2 mths. Could've shown more faith if i picked up more units, but im very happy with the result nonetheless. Now looking back I shouldve bought more when it was 0.48 about 2 weeks ago... I actually bought a lot before that at 0.58.
Anyway, lets talk about the near future, need to evaluate if I should pick up more, or sell soon like I did with my RAU.


----------



## jtb (13 December 2007)

imaginator said:


> Ok guys, lets talk about the future of CVN. Anymore new drilling reports coming up? When is the next? How many next year?
> 
> I am happy I had faith in CVN, it gave me a return of 30% in about 2 mths. Could've shown more faith if i picked up more units, but im very happy with the result nonetheless. Now looking back I shouldve bought more when it was 0.48 about 2 weeks ago... I actually bought a lot before that at 0.58.
> Anyway, lets talk about the near future, need to evaluate if I should pick up more, or sell soon like I did with my RAU.




Congratulations to all holders, excellent results and always good for the junior / mid tier oilers as a whole when we see continued success such as that achieved by CVN.

As to their value/future imaginator you'll have to look around as theyv'e been very expensive for quite some time now on any kind of fundamental analysis so you have to weigh up how big you think the fields are?

Look at someone like Pan Pacific for peer value on flow rates around 5000bopd.

I personally prefer to look at reserves and potential upside, so for their $500 million market cap you'd want to see underlying reserves/upside of around 50million barrels (100% held not 40%) to get an idea of value (imo).

Best of luck with her and well done


----------



## chewy (13 December 2007)

imaginator said:


> Ok guys, lets talk about the future of CVN. Anymore new drilling reports coming up? When is the next? How many next year?





WB-1 Deep (which sounds like a very promissing well) - is due in just over a week. 30 or so more wells next year. So it will pretty much be fornightly results all year


----------



## Dukey (13 December 2007)

imaginator said:


> Ok guys, lets talk about the future of CVN. Anymore new drilling reports coming up? When is the next? How many next year?
> 
> I am happy I had faith in CVN, it gave me a return of 30% in about 2 mths. Could've shown more faith if i picked up more units, but im very happy with the result nonetheless. Now looking back I shouldve bought more when it was 0.48 about 2 weeks ago... I actually bought a lot before that at 0.58.
> Anyway, lets talk about the near future, need to evaluate if I should pick up more, or sell soon like I did with my RAU.




CVN have become a bottom drawer stock for me now and I'll be looking to buy more in the 'dips'. JV Management have  shown they can perform - great drilling success rate, many new wells coming up and new fields for the longer term.  Happy Daze.


----------



## Riles (13 December 2007)

Hmmm, 66c close is all it could manage. I'm a little dissapointed with that. What does it take to get the market excited?
Oh well, results are in the bag. Reserve upgrades will be significant. Hartleys and FP will be writing up an ammended valuation. Plenty of upside from here.


----------



## grace (13 December 2007)

Riles said:


> Hmmm, 66c close is all it could manage. I'm a little dissapointed with that. What does it take to get the market excited?
> Oh well, results are in the bag. Reserve upgrades will be significant. Hartleys and FP will be writing up an ammended valuation. Plenty of upside from here.




Yes, I agree.  Just buy some more if the market didn't react as it should have.  If it falls back to 60c I will.


----------



## imaginator (14 December 2007)

grace said:


> Yes, I agree.  Just buy some more if the market didn't react as it should have.  If it falls back to 60c I will.




yeah, just like the last time it went from 0.6 to 0.48, I should've bought more! Even with my credit card cash out I wouldnt regret it! And then sell at 0.7 yesterday, would have been a return so big I can't calculate the % since I started with not my own money.


----------



## Riles (14 December 2007)

I'm not too good at selling, but I did buy some at 46-47.5 on the recent dip so I got that bit right.

Actually I'm kinda happy the price didn't spike like crazy on the announcement. I would've probably feaked out and started selling and buying and selling and ultimately come out of it with about half my original position and a massive tax bill!

Nope. Long term hold for me and hopefully never have to get the urge sell any.


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## imaginator (14 December 2007)

Hey speaking about low prices, this afternoon the ASX got hit.

CVN is only .645 now, looks really good price to enter again......

What do u guys think?

my fingers  getting itchy.........


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## kransky (14 December 2007)

The WD well results are due around a weeks time so sometime this week will be a good time to get in... This is another 200m or so of volcanics... so could be big.... again.


----------



## HOT STOCKS (16 December 2007)

Recently, I finally bought into Carnarvon Petroleum (CNV) at 66 cents based on their last outstanding report that indicated that CVN has so much oil at record psi that the tankers could not keep up with the record level capacity! IMO the CVN sp will soon increase and CVN may be re-rated in the near future especially if more outstanding drilling results and reports are released. Recently I bought some TLM, TAM, CVN, plus I have some NIP, AGM and BHP.

Link to CVN L44H-D1131207 Report:
http://www.carnarvonpetroleum.com/docs/L44H-D1131207.pdf

13 December 2007
Company Announcements Office
ASX Limited
Via ASX Online
Dear Sirs

L44H-D1 RECORD PRODUCTION AT 3,940 BOPD
L44H-D1 (Carnarvon 40%)
The deviated well L44H-D1 is now flowing at a sustained, stabilised rate of approximately 3,940 barrels per day of 35.5 degree API oil with a minimal water cut of 0.05%. The well is free flowing through casing and tubing with a restricted choke setting of 38/64” and 26/64” respectively. Flowing wellhead pressures on casing and tubing remain high at 280-285 psi indicating the well has a flow capability greater than the current choked rate. Load out of oil tankers from the well location is the determining factor in not taking production higher at this stage.
Thailand Department of Mineral Fuels has commented that this is the highest flow rate ever achieved by any oil well drilled onshore Thailand.
The L44H-D1 well reached a total measured depth (“MD”) of 1,217 meters, 866 meters true vertical depth (“TVD”), at a subsurface location approximately 700 meters north of the oil producing well L44-H located within the central fault compartment of the Na Sanun East Oil Field (“NSE”). The top of the main volcanic reservoir was penetrated at a depth of approximately 1,016 meters MD (755 meters TVD) with over 200 meters measured thickness (111 meters true vertical thickness) of the target volcanic reservoir penetrated. The drill bit was still drilling within the main target volcanic reservoir when the decision was made that sufficient reservoir had been penetrated and to call total depth on the well. L44HD1 is the structurally highest volcanic reservoir penetration within the NSE field encountered to date. Total drilling fluid losses of 9,385 bbls at rates of 100 to 260 bbls/hr were observed while drilling through the main target. Wiper trips at 1,155 meters MD and 1,217 meters MD had resulted in oil to surface. This was the third well drilled into NSE’s central fault compartment. These test results at L44H-D1 confirm an oil column at NSE of a minimum of 150 meters.

Looking forward, the implications of this well on NSE field development are significant. L44H-D1 was a highly deviated well (approximately 51 degrees) at the top of the main volcanic objective. Based on these results, consideration is being given to full NSE field development utilising up to 12 horizontal wells. The potential advantages of horizontal drilling being: 1) maximum reservoir thickness penetration 2) improved access to the extensive fracture network 3) less drawdown at higher rates, and 4) greater distance between the well bore and the oil/water contact, likely reducing the time to water breakthrough.

NS6-D1A SIDETRACK (Carnarvon 40%)
Sidetracked well, NS6-D1A is free flowing 35.5 API oil at a stabilized pre-cleanup rate of 615 bopd with choke setting of 18/64” on both casing and tubing. Flowing wellhead pressures are between 150 and 120 psi and water cut is low at approximately 0.05%. NS6-D1A is located within the south fault compartment of the NSE structural closure approximately 400 meters north of the original POE-9 discovery well. The well penetrated approximately 23 meters of the main volcanic target with mud losses at rates of 20 bbl/hr. This was the fifth well drilled into NSE’s southern fault compartment.

WICHIAN BURI-1 (DEEP) (Carnarvon 40%)
The Aztec #14 rig is drilling ahead at a depth of 900 meters after setting 9 5/8” casing at 362 metres. Drilling is anticipated to take approximately 8 days to reach total depth.
WB-1 (Deep) is targeting an approximately 220 metre thick volcanic section at a depth of 1,503 meters. This interval was penetrated by the original WB-1 well in 1988, resulting in severe lost circulation with approximately 20,000 bbls of drilling fluid losses associated with very high mud gas readings. Subsequent sidewall cores taken over this interval indicated oil staining. The previous operator did not evaluate this deeper volcanic zone in WB-1 but completed the shallower conventional F sandstone reservoir which tested oil at 500 bopd and is still producing oil 19 years on.

PRODUCTION OUTLOOK
Current field production capacity is now greater than 10,000 bopd gross (4,000 bopd net to Carnarvon) with average deliveries to the refinery of between 5,500-6,000 bopd gross (2,200-2,400 bopd net), limited by the capacity of the tanker fleet. Delivery is anticipated to increase to 7,000 bopd gross (2,800 bopd net) in late December 2007. The use of a new
loading bay at the existing refinery has been negotiated, bringing the refinery capacity up to approximately 10,000 bopd gross. Upon approval of the NSE production license by the Thailand Department of Mineral Fuels, a second refinery contract is anticipated to be signed, bringing the total refinery unloading capacity to over 20,000 bopd gross.

A number of options are being evaluated to reduce the trucking capacity bottleneck as quickly as possible. This is a short term issue caused by the rapid success of high well deliverabilities far in excess of initial expectations.

CEO COMMENT
The Carnarvon CEO Ted Jacobson commented: “Once again the Na Sanun East Field has delivered a pleasant surprise with the L44H-D1 well flowing at a record rate of near on 4,000 bopd. Although sales of oil is currently restricted to between 5,500 to 6,000 bopd by infrastructure limitations, the operator Pan Orient is working hard to significantly upgrade production facilities over the coming months with significant results already being achieved. 

Located around 10-15 kms to the northwest, the Wichian Buri structure is separate to the Na Sanun and Na Sanun East structures. The WB-1 (Deep) well, currently being drilled on the Wichian Buri structure, is an evaluation of a volcanic reservoir drilled in 1988 by a previous joint venture. The degree of mud losses and oil staining in the previously drilled well WB-1 is encouraging for possible good flow rates in this new well WB-1 (Deep).

This has certainly been an exciting year with production deliverability increasing from 300 bopd in January to current estimate of around 10,000 bopd. Carnarvon is anticipating continued activity through 2008 with between 20 to 30 more wells to be drilled over the next 12 months.”


Carnarvon Petroleum Limited
RA Anderson
Company Secretary’


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## MS+Tradesim (16 December 2007)

Background fundamentals:

http://afp.google.com/article/ALeqM5gA9oE0xzPkFOd9v01g4wfVAMGexw

http://www.ptit.org/is-petroleum-preview.php?petroleum_id=3

http://www.iea.org/textbase/work/2007/bangkok/sakunee.pdf

http://www.worldbank.or.th/WBSITE/E...K:141137~piPK:141127~theSitePK:333296,00.html

http://www.crownminerals.govt.nz/cm...the-asia-pacific-region?searchterm=incentives

http://www.atimes.com/atimes/Southeast_Asia/GB23Ae03.html


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## shaunm (16 December 2007)

Does anyone know if CVN have anything to do with that "mo-fo" ocean rig being constructed in the first link?


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## MS+Tradesim (16 December 2007)

shaunm said:


> Does anyone know if CVN have anything to do with that "mo-fo" ocean rig being constructed in the first link?




I don't think so. I should have been clearer. The point of the links is to provide background info on the energy/oil market in Thailand and the growing demand. This is the market environment in which the Thai JV is progressing.


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## Rob 17 (17 December 2007)

Just wondering if any newspapers has written up an article about CVN's amazing record find in Thailand.  

IMO it seems the market is a few steps behind this one.  

DYOR


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## resourcesman (17 December 2007)

AFR had CVN yesterday ranking it the second best performer this year, after OM Holdings...............


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## villemus (18 December 2007)

picked up some at $0.595 .... 

I just wonder how big of a effect can the big market bring to CVN...


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## JTLP (18 December 2007)

villemus said:


> picked up some at $0.595 ....
> 
> I just wonder how big of a effect can the big market bring to CVN...




Obviously on massive down days like yesterday and today, 99% of stocks are going to be affected.

What you have to remember with CVN are the fundamentals, management and proven strike rates/successes to date. 
Although subject to drops (just like the rest of the market) I am quite hopeful they will weather the storm, and, once things start to relax (LOL whenever that is) hopefully we can see some new highs being set. They are currently waiting on some drill results WB-1 and a production license, so things are still in check...

All in all...DYOR


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## chewy (19 December 2007)

More good news to CVN holders  - apparently they have just been awarded the rights to Phitsanulok Basin.

_"Thailand grants 11 petroleum exploration rights
BANGKOK, Dec 18 (Reuters) - The Thai government approved on Tuesday 11 petroleum exploration concessions for 13 blocks -- 11 onshore and two in the Gulf of Thailand -- in the country's latest round of bidding.

London-listed Salamander Energy (E&P) Ltd was given the rights to onshore block L15/50 to and Malaysia's Mitra Energy Ltd and Northern Gulf Oil (Thailand) Ltd were each allocated two onshore blocks, it said in a statement.

TPI Polene Power, a unit of Thailand's TPI Polene got rights to block L29/50 and Australia's Carnarvon Petroleum Ltd. (CVN.AX 


CARNARVON PETR19 December,200719/12/2007 00:15 Sydney, Australia.
Value Change % Change 
0.650 +0.010 +1.560% 

Company overview
Real-time quote
CVN.AX , 0.650, +0.010, +1.560%) and Sun Resources NL (SUR.AX 
SUN RESOURCES19 December,200719/12/2007 00:15 Sydney, Australia.
Value Change % Change 
0.110 -0.005 -4.350% 

Company overview
Real-time quote
SUR.AX , 0.110, -0.005, -4.350%) jointly received rights to onshore block L20/50."_


And from a previous CVN ann (for background on the block):

_"Carnarvon Petroleum submitted an application with the Department of Mineral Fuels (?DMF?) in Thailand for concession rights in petroleum exploration and production for the area known as Block L20/50 onshore Thailand in the Phitsanulok Basin on behalf of a joint venture comprising Carnarvon as operator and Sun Resources NL (?Sun Resources?) each with 50% participating interest. Carnarvon and Sun Resources are the only applicants for this block.
The Concession covers an area of 3,947 km? and is located approximately 50 km west of Carnarvon?s current permits onshore Thailand. The Concession is also around 30km southeast and on trend with the large onshore Sirikit oil and gas fields which have produced over 150 million barrels of oil to date and are still producing at 20,000 bopd."_


Oh happy days


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## adobee (19 December 2007)

Sounds very positive how come it hasnt been released as an annoucement as yet ??

I was pleased as a new comer on cvn (buy in at 65c friday) to see it have some strength against the strong drops yesterday morning..


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## Riles (19 December 2007)

Where did you come across that release chewy?
I just bought more SUR yesterday so I would expect this news to have an immediate effect on their SP, and CVN's too.
That is great news. Something to look forward to in a couple of years. By then CVN would have great expertise in the area. I'm sure both co's will be eager to get moving asap in L20/50.
Bring on the ann.


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## Rob 17 (19 December 2007)

heres the article


http://www.reuters.com/article/rbssEnergyNews/idUSBKK29064420071218

DYOR  .......


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## chewy (19 December 2007)

http://money.ninemsn.com.au/article.aspx?id=338115 

link to story

I guess we have to wait for the office in WA to open and get it out to market. I too would have thought it would have been out before open though.


----------



## Riles (19 December 2007)

Just added some more SUR so I'm not complaining.
Something for my "future fund" hehe.
Lots more leverage on this block for SUR than CVN with only 1/4 the amount of shares on issue for SUR vs CVN.


----------



## chewy (19 December 2007)

Funny - seems the media have found out about it before the company! CVN ann just out:

_"L20/50 ONSHORE BLOCK THAILAND
We note articles appearing this morning reporting the Thai government approval of a petroleum exploration concession to Carnarvon and Sun Resources NL.
As previously reported to the market, Carnarvon was the sole bidder with Sun Resources NL for the L20/50 concession onshore Thailand.
Carnarvon has not received notification of an award of a concession. As and when Carnarvon receives any notification from the Thai Department of Mineral Fuels in respect of the award of the L20/50 concession it will inform the market accordingly."_


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## MS+Tradesim (19 December 2007)

chewy said:


> Funny - seems the media have found out about it before the company! CVN ann just out:
> 
> _"L20/50 ONSHORE BLOCK THAILAND
> We note articles appearing this morning reporting the Thai government approval of a petroleum exploration concession to Carnarvon and Sun Resources NL.
> ...




It's also possible that the media have it wrong and they have confused "sole bid" with "awarded concession".  But I guess we'll see.


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## Rob 17 (19 December 2007)

Its only a matter of time MS Tradesim 

Plenty of small orders going through at .65  

DYOR ..........


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## chewy (19 December 2007)

No I'm pretty sure the media is right - clearly they are expecting it - this from the SUR ann:

_"Neither joint venture partner has as yet received notification of an award of a concession,* but a notification is expected in the next week*."_


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## MS+Tradesim (19 December 2007)

Chewy,

Don't get me wrong, I fully expect CVN/SUR to be granted the concession. I just think the media are jumping the gun a bit. How can they know if CVN don't yet? But all moot anyway so doesn't matter.....

***********


Rob_17,

I'm 99% sure the small orders are a bot selling which would mean we have a large holder exiting or lowering their position. Again, doesn't matter to me as I believe in CVN's success in the context of the Thai energy demand.


----------



## resourcesman (19 December 2007)

MS+Tradesim said:


> How can they know if CVN don't yet?
> 
> ***********




simple......... info leaks, or media links to thai govt workers or officials..............................


----------



## INORE (20 December 2007)

MS+Tradesim said:


> Chewy,
> 
> Don't get me wrong, I fully expect CVN/SUR to be granted the concession. I just think the media are jumping the gun a bit. How can they know if CVN don't yet? But all moot anyway so doesn't matter.....
> 
> ...




Hi MS...do u understand how this bot selling/buying works?  I would be fascinated to hear the explanation of why there is consistantly a small bunch of shares being traded over the last month or so...how does it work???  Do they make large purchases and slowly sell off or are they making lots of small sells to help them with large buys???  I have heard that the broker fee's may be a set rate and not a charge on a each trade...it just seems weird...i have been trading for 6 years and have never seen/noticed this BOT trading b4....cheers for any info.


----------



## JTLP (20 December 2007)

In other news when is the WB-1 announcement due?
I would love for another nice hit and an increase to reserves.

Speaking of which, who thinks that there will be dual announcements on the 1day, or 1 tacked onto the other, about the current drill of WB-1 and the situation regarding capacity maximum and the bottleneck.

Would love to see this cleared up soon...then it could be


----------



## Biggle (20 December 2007)

The way I read last thursdays announcement, TD for WB should be 8 days, being maybe tonight but probably tommorow for info. I would assume some progress has also been made on the infrasturucture bottleneck problems, considering how crucial they are. Todays sell off looks a little orchestrated to me, with a bot selling small parcels to trickle the price down. Should be out lawed IMO.


----------



## adobee (20 December 2007)

Biggle said:


> The way I read last thursdays announcement, TD for WB should be 8 days, being maybe tonight but probably tommorow for info. I would assume some progress has also been made on the infrasturucture bottleneck problems, considering how crucial they are. Todays sell off looks a little orchestrated to me, with a bot selling small parcels to trickle the price down. Should be out lawed IMO.




How can you tell it is a BOT selling down the price ???
I can see there are sales but what proof is there it is somewhat doing it automatically ???


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## Biggle (20 December 2007)

Just my impression, observations from time to time for at least last few days where a small parcel of between 400 to 600 shares will sell every couple minutes, even if the buy side is heavier that the sells.


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## MS+Tradesim (20 December 2007)

adobee said:


> How can you tell it is a BOT selling down the price ???
> I can see there are sales but what proof is there it is somewhat doing it automatically ???




There's no proof but there is evidence which lends itself to a reasonable conclusion that its a bot.

For the past few days there have been consistent small sells every few minutes. The timing changes but over a period the timing itself is consistent. For example, it could be sells every 5 mins one day. Or it could be every 8 mins or whatever. It changes. The order sizes are also consistent within ranges.

The parcels are too small to be charged at standard brokerage rates. It would not be cost-effective. Hence, more probable that the seller is either a large client being charged a set overall fee, or it is a dealing insto themselves thus eliminating brokerage at all.

It would not be effective human resource use to have a person sitting there entering small sells every few minutes. It would be extremely easy to program something to sell (or buy) within parameters, freeing a person from the job.

Here's an excerpt from course of sales. Follow the trail.


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## chewy (20 December 2007)

is it leagal for them to do this?  seems dodgy 
(the 100 character limit can be anoying when all i want to do is ask a question)


----------



## imaginator (20 December 2007)

MS+Tradesim said:


> There's no proof but there is evidence which lends itself to a reasonable conclusion that its a bot.
> 
> For the past few days there have been consistent small sells every few minutes. The timing changes but over a period the timing itself is consistent. For example, it could be sells every 5 mins one day. Or it could be every 8 mins or whatever. It changes. The order sizes are also consistent within ranges.
> 
> ...




Can we report this to the ASX? What are those guys trying to do. Wanna buy it below .6?

But anyway, picked up more today at 0.635. Maybe should've waited for 0.625 to get in, but what the heck. I think if CVN goes up to $1 it will all still be worthwhile.


----------



## MS+Tradesim (20 December 2007)

I don't think they're doing anything wrong. Sure, it's annoying but probably better than the alternative of someone dumping in large quantities of stock at once and pushing the price down. Brokers are required to provide orderly markets and several other things but I really don't think drip-feeding is against the rules. Still, if someone wants to go through the ASX rules, feel free. :


----------



## gimme some (20 December 2007)

For those wishing to understand how the whole bot thing works
Danash gives a pretty good explanation of this at H.C


----------



## Joe Blow (21 December 2007)

chewy said:


> is it leagal for them to do this?  seems dodgy
> (the 100 character limit can be anoying when all i want to do is ask a question)




Chewy - It's not really that hard to ask two questions or to elaborate on why you are asking a question. All it really takes is an additional moment of thought.

I will let it go this time but please don't pad out your posts in future. 

Thanks!


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## Rob 17 (21 December 2007)

Pan Orient Energy  which is Carnarvon's joint venture partner  60/40 keeps powering on hitting new highs  while Carnarvon stands still   

Will be interesting to see how the market react to the WICHIAN BURI-1 (DEEP)  results.

Would be nice to see some funds snap up some stock for the long term.


----------



## hangseng (21 December 2007)

Rob 17 said:


> Pan Orient Energy  which is Carnarvon's joint venture partner  60/40 keeps powering on hitting new highs  while Carnarvon stands still
> 
> Will be interesting to see how the market react to the WICHIAN BURI-1 (DEEP)  results.
> 
> Would be nice to see some funds snap up some stock for the long term.




The existing well structure is shallow sandstone reservoir and 500BOPD flow good. However you are on the money as WB-1 target is a deep volcanic structure and the flow from here I would expect to be much higher. That will make CVN holders very pleased indeed I am sure when the results come out and I also expect the market to react extremely positively.

I also expect someone knows this already and is loading up their Xmas stocking accordingly. I don't yet hold CVN but my entry time has come now. CVN is now in my "No Brainer" category of a must have stock. 63cents is cheap for such a great producing stock.


----------



## JTLP (21 December 2007)

From what i've read about POE (which is very little) i think they have other ventures which also contribute to their SP. I hold CVN as well and am a little ticked off with the way it is played, but I think comparing it to POE is not entirely feasible due to their other assets/projects.


----------



## imaginator (24 December 2007)

Hi guys

When is the next announcement from CVN?
I believe there is a drilling report coming out soon?


How many of your are topping more CVNs now in your portfolio?


----------



## AMR (26 December 2007)

I've been sifting through the Hartleys broker report which shows the FY2009 profit as $AU79.8M. Probably an extremely dumb question, but this figure is based only on confirmed production and doesn't include any upside from undiscovered wells right?

[Yes, I am a technicals only trader, hence my total lack of understanding of fundamentals  ]


----------



## Rob_ee (27 December 2007)

imaginator said:


> Hi guys
> 
> When is the next announcement from CVN?
> I believe there is a drilling report coming out soon?
> ...




There is something expected tomorrow and based on the 501k buy order that came in late in the day which forced the price to close on the days high ... perhaps someone already knows ???

Looking forward to tomorrow and confidently holding.
At 66 c this appears extremely cheap based on 10000 bpd and future promising exploration areas.

Hartleys have a target of well over $1 short term and Fat prophets are very enthusiastic.

Happy new year ... I know it will be


----------



## Rob 17 (28 December 2007)

WICHIAN BURI-1 (DEEP) should be almost drilled. We can expect an update very soon. 

WB-1 (Deep) is targeting an approximately 220 metre thick volcanic section. This interval was penetrated by the original WB-1 well in 1988, resulting in
severe lost circulation with approximately 20,000 bbls of drilling fluid losses associated with very high mud gas readings.

A postive result should see Carnarvon (CVN) add to its production levels and power on towards the .70s    

DYOR


----------



## Nasdaq (30 December 2007)

Has anyone got a copy of Hartleys recent valuation?

Has anyone heard anymore about the recent Thailand tenements?


----------



## Trader Paul (30 December 2007)

Hi folks,

CVN ..... chart in a strong uptrend and with 2 favourable aspects
in play, early this week ... so, it may just "pop-out-the-top" for us ..... 

..... it has come a very long way, since we were trading it
around 2 cents ... lol.

have a great weekend

    paul



=====


----------



## johnnyg (30 December 2007)

Nasdaq said:


> Has anyone got a copy of Hartleys recent valuation?
> 
> Has anyone heard anymore about the recent Thailand tenements?




http://www.carnarvonpetroleum.com/investor_centre/?pg=4

Note that the last report was before the release about the record production released on 13/12/07 and they still value CVN @ .89cents. From memory I remember reading they upgraded their report after that info and revised their valuation to $1.03 a share??? Someone correct me if im mistaken.


----------



## JTLP (31 December 2007)

CVN sure are taking their sweet time releasing the drill results. Last time this happened they came out fantastically. Come on CVN, don't let me down with delays in results!


----------



## Rob 17 (1 January 2008)

Carnarvon's joint venture partner Pan Orient Energy Corp. (POE) has finished the year reaching a new all time high.


Up 9%.   

Good times ahead.........

DYOR


----------



## simo (1 January 2008)

In todays West Australian newspaper on page 32 as one of Hartley's picks for 2008......

The order is
1. Atlas Iron
2. Avoca Resources
3. Apex Minerals
4. Carnarvon Petroleum
5. RCR Tomlinson.

Hopefully a very good sign.


----------



## JTLP (2 January 2008)

Intra-day high of .680 (and the day isn't even over yet).
Hopefully some news out tonite from POE.

Any thoughts as to what it could be?
Im guessing a double announcement on the granting of the concession of L/20/50 and flow rates from WB-1 Deep. 

Would also be fantastic to see bottleneck issue resolved but hey, when has too much oil been a bad thing!


----------



## chewy (2 January 2008)

Yeah i agree - WB1 deep and the concession (and transport expansion should at least get a mention).  Ann this week imo.


----------



## Rob 17 (2 January 2008)

Jan 02, 2008 06:00 ET
Pan Orient Energy Corp.: Thailand: Drilling Update
CALGARY, ALBERTA--(Marketwire - Jan. 2, 2008) - 

NOT FOR DISSEMINATION TO U.S. NEWSWIRE SERVICES OR FOR DISSEMINATION IN THE UNITED STATES.

Pan Orient Energy Corp. (TSX VENTUREOE):

Wichian Buri-1 "Deep" (60% WI & Operator)

WB-1(Deep) has been drilled to a total vertical depth of 1,598 meters, penetrating the top of the target volcanic at 1,501 meters and drilling through the top 97 meters of the approximately 220 meter thick zone. Lost circulation was encountered at 1,552 and 1,585 meters at rates of 20 and 227 bbls/hr, respectively, with approximately 4,900 bbls of drilling fluid lost into the target formation while drilling and logging. Live oil was observed at the surface while drilling at 1,503, 1,556, 1,565 and 1,585 meters. Testing is anticipated to be completed within the next 12 days, initiating in 5 days after the Aztec 14 rig has been moved off location.

 Interesting times ahead

DYOR


----------



## Riles (2 January 2008)

Sounds very promising.
Seems to me like they got about half way through the 220 metre target and decided they'd lost enough drilling fluid and seen enough oil to be able to abandon drilling and start testing. 

I could be wrong and I hope I'm not, but it does sound similar to what they did with L44H-D1  when they abandoned drilling before they'd found the bottom.
L44H-D1 is producing 4000 bopd.

If this Wichian Buri well is anything like that it would have another big impact on their reserves, not to mention the prospects of more successes at this new field.

Ya wouldn't be dead for quids. hehe.


----------



## Dukey (3 January 2008)

Rob 17 said:


> Jan 02, 2008 06:00 ET
> Pan Orient Energy Corp.: Thailand: Drilling Update
> CALGARY, ALBERTA--(Marketwire - Jan. 2, 2008) -
> 
> ...




As expected... Same info now released by CVN to ASX.
Could be an interesting day!!!!!!!!

No news about transportation issues etc - I like that actually - maybe we'll get more out of splitting the news up into regular announcements than getting it all at once.  
here's cheers....


----------



## Miner (3 January 2008)

Rob 17 said:


> Jan 02, 2008 06:00 ET
> Pan Orient Energy Corp.: Thailand: Drilling Update
> CALGARY, ALBERTA--(Marketwire - Jan. 2, 2008) -
> 
> ...




Rob 17
You have an uncanny set of eyes and ears alongwith sixth sense for Interesting observation and speed of information on CVN.
Wondering what is your secret for being so accurate - Just Reuter report ?
Nonetheless thanks and I will focus more on what you say as well along with few other whiz kids in this forum.

Regards


----------



## chewy (3 January 2008)

Nearly all CVN ann's come out the night before in Toronto via they're JV partner POE - if you go to "marketwire" and type a search for "POE" you will get there latest ann. I think they are posted around 6am their time, which is about 10 -10.30 pm here.


----------



## Go Nuke (3 January 2008)

Could be a good day for CVN though not as good so far as I might have thought despite the DOW having a tumble.

I'd like to see it get through that resistance of 70c though!:>


----------



## johnnyg (3 January 2008)

There didnt seem to be to much  to get threw that .70cent door.  If it can close above there it should act as support now.


----------



## Dukey (3 January 2008)

johnnyg said:


> There didnt seem to be to much  to get threw that .70cent door.  If it can close above there it should act as support now.




Yep - nice steady move north yesterday and today - and smallish volume is good really - I interpret that as meaning few holders are interested in selling at this point - presumably because they believe there are more increases to come....that bodes well for the future SP.
slow steady rises will beat a knife-spike any day for me....

.... maybe I listened too hard when my mum said ' playing with knives is dangerous!!! ' ....


----------



## Rob_ee (3 January 2008)

All time high today and holding up well on a down day.

Promising drill result with more to come.
Its nice to be on a winner , Oil seems the way to go onto the future ...more and more demand--- less supply  --- rising stock prices even in this uncertain panicky market.

Happy to have this as a long term hold


----------



## JTLP (3 January 2008)

Somebody posted a brilliant schedule of Drills to come on another forum.

It seems that if you held CVN for another 12 months you could potentially be a very happy person. I will try and track down the schedule


----------



## MS+Tradesim (3 January 2008)

The schedule is in their most recent presentation. page 20:

http://www.carnarvon.com.au/docs/AGMAddressPresentation291107.pdf


----------



## Garpal Gumnut (3 January 2008)

JTLP said:


> Somebody posted a brilliant schedule of Drills to come on another forum.
> 
> It seems that if you held CVN for another 12 months you could potentially be a very happy person. I will try and track down the schedule




I'm a little disquieted having read some of "another forum", suggesting brokers, some prophets and seers etc. now see CVN as a buy. This is often a bad sign.

I enclose a daily chart from Sept 07 to today.

Technically it is still making higher highs and higher lows and trending up, as can be seen from the upper part of the chart.

However the volume is disappointing.  The red line in the lower part of the chart tracks the lowering volumes.

If the volume increases with large ranges and lower closes beware. Prophets can be wrong.

gg


----------



## Rob 17 (3 January 2008)

Garpal Gumnut said:


> I'm a little disquieted having read some of "another forum", suggesting brokers, some prophets and seers etc. now see CVN as a buy. This is often a bad sign.
> 
> 
> Why is this a bad sign???
> ...


----------



## Garpal Gumnut (3 January 2008)

Rob 17 said:


> Garpal Gumnut said:
> 
> 
> > I'm a little disquieted having read some of "another forum", suggesting brokers, some prophets and seers etc. now see CVN as a buy. This is often a bad sign.
> ...


----------



## Rob_ee (3 January 2008)

Garpal Gumnut said:


> I'm a little disquieted having read some of "another forum", suggesting brokers, some prophets and seers etc. now see CVN as a buy. This is often a bad sign.
> 
> gg





Why would that usually be a bad sign ??? in the short term at least ?

With Hartleys appraisal of above  $ 1.30 .. still a long way of that and Fat Prophets list this in their top 5 picks for 08.

With all the subscribers buying it should continue upwards to somewhere near that price before a sell of is triggered somewhere (perhaps) near $1.30.

And there is still a lot very promissing exploratory upside potential which may drive the price a lot higher above $ 1.30

And Oil will probably trade in the $90 range for a while

As for the volume .... we are in the holiday mode still and were for most of December .. not to mention with the Yanks stuffing things up with their sub prime greed a lot of people are sitting on the sidelines in fear.

Like all oilers volume is driven by drilling upgrades and there is a little time lag between each ... still this trades in the millions every day ( 10 mil last 2 days)so there is lots of liquidity.

At the moment this is plaqued by pesky day traders happy with their 1-2 cent daily gain, as more oil is discovered some institutions may step in (hopefully) which should act as good support.

In any case I have been accumulationg since the 40's and will happily continue as long as the trend continues upwards.

At the moment they have access to 10000 bop and at 70 c its still appears cheap based on some of the other overpriced non-producers out there.

Occasionally the price will dip on news delays where the impatient can' hack the pressure BUT based on what they are currently capable of producing it still appears cheap at todays prices.

Happy to hold this long term despite the daily fluctuations

Rob


----------



## johnnyg (3 January 2008)

Good to see different views on charts. Heres my daily chart from Sep 07 also.

Almost all trading is within the 3 trend channels bar a shortrise above line 4 around 12/11/07. Fell quite heavily from there but found support at longterm uptrend (line 1) and recovered. For the past 2 weeks CVN has been trading in the middle trend channel. As you can see quite a few times line 2 provided support. Todays close is just about line 3. Will be interesting to see if it will provide support and for trading to continue in the 3rd channel.


2nd pic is a closeup of the last 2 weeks. Good consoildation between .625 and .67. Yesterday pushed threw slight resistance @ .67 and then again today with a strong push threw .70. Should now provide support.

Interested to hear other opinions/thoughts chartwise.

Regards


----------



## Garpal Gumnut (3 January 2008)

Rob_ee said:


> Why would that usually be a bad sign ??? in the short term at least ?
> 
> With Hartleys appraisal of above  $ 1.30 .. still a long way of that and Fat Prophets list this in their top 5 picks for 08.
> 
> ...




The smart money may be waiting to offload their profits at the top, and then buy in further down from weaker holders.

I take your points though, but look at the charts closely over the next week or so.

I'll be overjoyed if it hits 1.30, even more so if the instos buy in in some numbers. 

Thus far I don't see any buyers pushing it up.

gg


----------



## Garpal Gumnut (3 January 2008)

johnnyg said:


> Good to see different views on charts. Heres my daily chart from Sep 07 also.
> 
> Almost all trading is within the 3 trend channels bar a shortrise above line 4 around 12/11/07. Fell quite heavily from there but found support at longterm uptrend (line 1) and recovered. For the past 2 weeks CVN has been trading in the middle trend channel. As you can see quite a few times line 2 provided support. Todays close is just about line 3. Will be interesting to see if it will provide support and for trading to continue in the 3rd channel.
> 
> ...




Thanks johnnyg

I agree, I have a similar chart saved but when I looked closely at the volume I became more cautious. Thus the post.

gg


----------



## daveinchi (3 January 2008)

Garpel
 I think you are bieng very trader like in your way of thinking.
 ie you are looking at volume as an indication of selling, despite the fact that the jv, keeps pulling up oil and the ta is showing an upward trend.
 Come on, get a grip. As the price goes up, then there are less people attracted as it becomes more expensive for most punters to get a descent parcel.


----------



## Garpal Gumnut (3 January 2008)

daveinchi said:


> Garpel
> I think you are bieng very trader like in your way of thinking.
> ie you are looking at volume as an indication of selling, despite the fact that the jv, keeps pulling up oil and the ta is showing an upward trend.
> Come on, get a grip. As the price goes up, then there are less people attracted as it becomes more expensive for most punters to get a descent parcel.




Thanks daveinchi,

My take on that would be that from now on I'm not looking at punters like us pulling the price up. If its too expensive you don't buy. If you don't buy there become more sellers than buyers. If there are more sellers than buyers, the price falls. 

It happens with bananas, BHP and CVN. So I'm not hoping anything really. 

I'd like to see the instos and not the poor old clients of the tipsheets buying this stock up. Otherwise the sellers will come in and the price will fall.

gg


----------



## daveinchi (3 January 2008)

garpel
 It really matters little who is buying. The facts are ,that as the jv keeps pulling oil out the price will go up.
 Period , end of discussion. All the rest of the ins and outs mean zero.
 I Have no doubt that we will be seeing one dollar plus in the next few months.


----------



## Garpal Gumnut (3 January 2008)

daveinchi said:


> garpel
> It really matters little who is buying. The facts are ,that as the jv keeps pulling oil out the price will go up.
> Period , end of discussion. All the rest of the ins and outs mean zero.
> I Have no doubt that we will be seeing one dollar plus in the next few months.




I'll drink to that, and I do hope the price continues to rise.

Just watch the charts though. I've never been to Thailand but I'm sure bull**** smells the same over there as it does here. 

I had a recent weather bureau, satellite, tell me it was dry over where I live, and we were in the middle of a 3 inch downpour in 4 hours.

gg


----------



## daveinchi (4 January 2008)

Garpal.
 The fact is, that most people have fear jumping on their backs at night, telling them to sell when they are sitting on a profit or a loss.
 But try and look at it another way.
 Whilst someone sold today at 67c fearing the worst,.... someone else bought, in the KNOWLEDGE that this year will see one dollar plus.
 Forget completely what i am writing ,or for that matter what anyone else here writes, but concern yourself only with the facts of cvn and its ability to carry on hitting oil. No Doubt in my mind where we are heading, and i dont listen to the trader noise of the ifs, buts and maybe,s of a chart.


----------



## Rob 17 (4 January 2008)

Interesting to see weather CVN will hold above .70 today.    I think it can find support at this price as it didnt rocket up after the last (record) result.

Oil and Gold shares are going to be the next "hot" stocks IMO.  People will want to jump on board.  As i said in a previous post i wouldnt be buying at this point for a quick profit  but anything is welcomed. 

DYOR


----------



## wildmanchris (4 January 2008)

Garpal Gumnut said:


> I'll drink to that, and I do hope the price continues to rise.
> 
> Just watch the charts though. I've never been to Thailand but I'm sure bull**** smells the same over there as it does here.
> 
> ...




Im holding CVN, and as much as I would like to think that the price will keep rising, I have seen loads of times that people reading reports and putting their hard earned coin into a stock (deservedly so with this one), then soon see a large holder that bought in a few months earlier come in and crush the price will a sell order to take profits.

The fundametals are good, and the outlook is great - but I believe GG is right pointing out the technicals of the chart can sometimes alert you to something that could potentially go against where the fundamentals are driving the price to. 

I work with alot of technical traders, and cant bring myself to trade off the charts but have seen many people be right trading charts against the trends of the fundamentals.

Long term I am holding, and am cautiously optomistic about the short term 
price movement.


----------



## muddy waters (4 January 2008)

Hi guys, I came across your postings late yesterday and have similar concerns on the market and CVN.   I am more worried about the military regime in Thailand and its future actions as they affect CVN.  Wasn't it just a short time ago  they rejected an application by an Aust gold miner to continue or extend their operations in Thailand.  Also they still haven't released the results/lease for the new CVN jv for the adjoining lease. Does any share this concern or are I barking up the wrong tree.


----------



## MS+Tradesim (4 January 2008)

Muddy,

I don't see Thai govt/military making problems for CVN joint ventures. Thailand is a net importer of 660,000boepd. Oil/gas development in Thailand is very important to them as they currently rely heavily on neighbouring countries including Myanmar (Burma), which isn't stable. Their energy demand is rising but apart from the CVN/POE new discovery there are no new significant finds in Thailand. 

Check out the links I posted a page or two back.


----------



## Rob_ee (4 January 2008)

So what do you think now GG ....

Based on a record all time high and big buy chunks ... maybe an insto or 2 stepping in ???

That $1 mark may be closer than we think   @.775 now so a retrace is probably on cards today with 5 hrs to go
If it closes higher today I'll be happy whatever the price

Love this stock for previously stated reasons

Congrats to the believers


----------



## Miner (4 January 2008)

muddy waters said:


> Hi guys, I came across your postings late yesterday and have similar concerns on the market and CVN.   I am more worried about the military regime in Thailand and its future actions as they affect CVN.  Wasn't it just a short time ago  they rejected an application by an Aust gold miner to continue or extend their operations in Thailand.  Also they still haven't released the results/lease for the new CVN jv for the adjoining lease. Does any share this concern or are I barking up the wrong tree.




Dear Muddy Waters
Good observation. I do not hold CVN and always wanted to hold when the price will fall ! The price has gone up to 74 cents today contrary to my wish.
Regarding Thailand military regime etc my  comments are :

Thailand is strongly controlled by the King.
Thailand has vested interested on the output of CVN. Who wants to kill a goose laying golden eggs ?
Thailand military regime is much better than Pakistan. Please look how much BHPB Petroleum is investing in Pakistan.
West Africa and South Africa are having much worse situation and level of corruption. The companies are still flourishing there.
China has one of the worst human rights situation and it is the darling nation of the whole world.
India is notorious for corruption, lack of infrastruture. It is the second best growing nation even 1 billion population can not match with cricket skills of Aussies 
So please do not get panicked with military regime and hence CVN's  future. Relax and just see CVN is roaring (I do not see my wish will ever be fulfiled to own it)

Regards


----------



## wildmanchris (4 January 2008)

Rob_ee said:


> So what do you think now GG ....
> 
> Based on a record all time high and big buy chunks ... maybe an insto or 2 stepping in ???
> 
> ...




With all due respect - the guy wouldnt be in if he didnt belive.  I've seen many people lose lots of money when they dont balance their belief with weighing up the _*potential*_ negatives as well.


----------



## MS+Tradesim (4 January 2008)

Rob,

It is a wide range on relatively low volume. I would now expect a sell-off next week to take us back towards 70 maybe even high 60s.

I am a believer and a long-term (into the future holder) but that has no relevance to the short-term price action and the way traders can change sentiment on a stock. I also would advise caution, but am looking for further growth.


----------



## Riles (4 January 2008)

johnnyg said:


> Almost all trading is within the 3 trend channels bar a shortrise above line 4 around 12/11/07. Fell quite heavily from there but found support at longterm uptrend (line 1) and recovered.
> 
> Regards




Well we just hit line 4 again Johnnyg.
I guess it's in anticipation of good results from WB1, so it's speculatively driven at this time.

Actual results will be the key. If WB-1 is productive it means a whole new area is open for business.
If it's a dud, we could well see another retrace similar to the last time the price came down from line 4 - around 30%.
In the meantime we still have another 10 days or so to kill before testing is finished for WB-1, so this rally seems a bit premature, so maybe it's not _all_ about the next well...


----------



## hyperterminal (4 January 2008)

muddy waters said:


> Hi guys, I came across your postings late yesterday and have similar concerns on the market and CVN.   I am more worried about the military regime in Thailand and its future actions as they affect CVN.  Wasn't it just a short time ago  they rejected an application by an Aust gold miner to continue or extend their operations in Thailand.  Also they still haven't released the results/lease for the new CVN jv for the adjoining lease. Does any share this concern or are I barking up the wrong tree.





muddy,
being someone who has lived and worked in thailand I dont believe the military regime has any impact on the stability of thailand whatsoever.  Thailand has had coups more times then I can remember in the last 30 years and the vast majority have been bloodless and cause little distruption to everyday business.

The king has given his blessing for the last coup which bascially gives rise to calm throughout the country.  One thing you will learn about miltary coups in thailand is that they are not run by the military rather the king, military leaders dont sneeze without speaking to the king first.. I was there two days after the latest coup and besides the smiling soilders on tanks you wouldnt know there was a coup, they closed down a few bars early for a week or so then back to BAU...

Oil stability is prime concern for thailand and even with a small production levels delivered currently by CVN they would like to keep it flowing, also from what I can tell CVN and POE are highly resepcted for the positive impact they have had on the local community employing about 110 people, spending in the local economy and donating to local schools and communities..

Local goverment officals will be quite aware of this....I cant foresee any geo-political or instability causing CVN any issues in the immediate future.... If on the other hand they where drilling in some areas of africa at the moment it would be a different story!

hyper


----------



## Garpal Gumnut (4 January 2008)

Rob_ee said:


> So what do you think now GG ....
> 
> Based on a record all time high and big buy chunks ... maybe an insto or 2 stepping in ???
> 
> ...




I cannot see any instos thus far. Its now well after 10am in Queensland and nearly time for a siesta, and then a walk on the beach, and afternoon drinks, then dinner and a read of todays Fin Review. Its so nice to see the world in the rear view mirror. So I'll check the volume and price this evening and post over the weekend. 

gg


----------



## Nasdaq (4 January 2008)

Does anyone know what the XT code on the course of sale mean? Is it something really obvious ? CVN has had good success this really with another good drilling program to come. Let's hope she keeps going.


----------



## JTLP (4 January 2008)

Nasdaq said:


> Does anyone know what the XT code on the course of sale mean? Is it something really obvious ? CVN has had good success this really with another good drilling program to come. Let's hope she keeps going.




From memory i think XT is a crosstrade...
An example (please correct me if im wrong) is when people transfer shares between trusts or things of the like...


----------



## Rob_ee (4 January 2008)

Well closed better than I had hoped.
After 7 green candles in a row, at a time when our market has been down overall and the Dow suffered several triple digit loses ... a good performance overall

Sooner or later the profit takers and short termers will bail out and the price may well retreat back to the mid 60's like someone suggested.
In the absence of my crystal ball I have no way of guessing and therefore will not sell... even in the 70's its cheaper than all the current proven assets, nevermind future discoveries.

There have been a few comments about the LOW ????? volume.

Another 6 mil changed hands today.... this is low volume. ????????
On my "Oilers" watch list there are 15 stocks and none trade anywhere near CVN's daily turnover, and some are quite impressive 

And GG .. I fervently hope you are right when you say that you see no evidence of insto buying.
If thats true then GREAT (whoo hoo  etc) because sooner or later the instos will have to take note and then we should see some real movement.

With a current market cap of 500Mil this junior explorer should go places.

This baby is for my retirement fund.
If it does drop to mid 60's then thats fine ... I'll be buying lots more

Happy new year ...


----------



## JTLP (4 January 2008)

JTLP said:


> From memory i think XT is a crosstrade...
> An example (please correct me if im wrong) is when people transfer shares between trusts or things of the like...




LOL im so out of it. Does it mean dealt with by the same broker?
Sorry buddy i got my N00b hat on. Not L33t at this stuff yet =)


----------



## Rob 17 (4 January 2008)

I'll be watching POE (carnarvon's joint venture partner) very closely on the 
Canadian stock exchange for any clues as to CVN’s direction.  www.tsx.com

People jumping in now are looking for big things from CVN and if the results don’t come to fruition they will jump ship. At this stage I’m happy to hold for the med term.

I’ll be even more happy when the company has production peaking.



DYOR


----------



## camaybay (4 January 2008)

a chart to ponder. although the SP is strong, the chart suggests to me that there will be a correction. then " i'll be back" in. been good so far, but as someone posted the price is getting out of the DT market and may well settle.


cheers

dyor


----------



## muddy waters (4 January 2008)

Thanks guys for your reassurances on political stability in Thailand.

Personally, I got in early and purchased consistently over the last couple of years. I have since pulled out my stake and am now playing with the leftovers. I would like to leave the table with something!

Like gg i am a trustee of a smf  (not into risky investments????) and have to protect the funds of the trust. (CVN like most stocks dropped 20-25% last August - but shot straight up thereafter) I actually sold some non-performers at the btm and purchased CVN @ 0.15c with the proceeds.

Don't kid yourselves the US is in, or heading for, a recession, Japan is dropping back towards deflation, Europe is sliding sideways, black gold is escalating in price, AUS rates are on the rise (9-10%) & CVN is a shooting star.

What goes up ..........

  I don't think now is the time to be rejoicing - or am I just a pessimist?

You can never pick the top [or btm] of the market but wouldn't it be good to buy back at a 20-25% discount.   AHHH! what the heck lets ride the thai tiger all the way!


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## daveinchi (4 January 2008)

Guys, i seem to be feeling a lot of angst, when there is no reason to be like that.
 CVN have gone from a sub 10c stock producing 300 bopd to a 10,000 bopd producer and a success rate of over 75%.!!
With oil at an all time high, and many pundits predicting $125 a barrel, this is the sort of company you should be holding for the rest of 2008.
 Now is the timt to hold something like cvn , not sell and give someone else a 50% profit allmost guaranteed.
 Each to ther own, but cvn are sitting on a massive find.They havnt even scratched the surface. A takeover from a major is not out of the question in these times of oil production falling and the scramble to find more of it.


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## INORE (5 January 2008)

yep couldnt agree more...CVN have all the fundamentals and after following so many of YT's fe hits i have the feeling that the people who bought early will take profits at any time but this is different, i have traded a couple of other oilers over the years and these guys have the fundamentals and now the media...just wait till feb / march when they start announcing transport and refinery production increases along with the many drill results due out between now and then....i'm holding my 12 months like a few others i know and will maybe think about a trade in CVN come august....


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## ktrianta (5 January 2008)

What do people mean by insto's being involved?

Looking at their top 6 shareholders they include:

HSBC Custody Nominnes

ANZ Nominees

Macquarie Bank

National Nominees

Citicorp Nominees

Don't these qualify as major institutions?


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## Garpal Gumnut (5 January 2008)

CVN seems a bit oversold at present but has good support about 60c. I'd prefer to see it trend sideways on this kind of volume or else go up again on higher volume. 

Thanks for all the fundamental info. Chart enclosed. 

I'm not trying to rain on the parade as I'm in it !!

I'll hold

gg


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## oldblue (5 January 2008)

ktrianta

It's an indication but not necessarily. They may be holding as nominee for one, a few or many beneficial owners. Could be local or overseas.


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## MS+Tradesim (7 January 2008)

RE: L20/50 ONSHORE BLOCK THAILAND - AWARD
Sun Resources NL (“Sun Resources”) and Carnarvon Petroleum NL (“Carnarvon”) have
received official notification from the Thai Department of Mineral Fuels (“DMF”) of the
award of onshore block L20/50 and in turn have accepted the block award from the DMF.
It is anticipated that contractual documentation for the block between the joint venture and
the Thai government will be signed latter this month in Bangkok. Following the formal
signing, Carnarvon as Operator, will commence block exploration activities.
Background to Block L20/50
The L20/50 block is a 3,947 km² block area located in the southern portion of the
Phitsanulok Basin, refer Figure page 2. The Phitsanulok Basin contains the largest
onshore oil and gas accumulation in onshore Thailand, the Sirikit Field, which is on trend
with the southern adjacent L20/50 block. The field was brought onto production in 1981
and to date has produced ~180 million barrels of oil. Current daily production approximates
20,000 barrels of oil, 50-55 million cubic feet of gas and 275 tonnes of LPG. Reserves in
excess on 200 million barrels of oil remain to be produced by advanced recovery
processes under the current high oil price regime.
The L20/50 block has been very lightly explored with the last effort in a time of low oil
prices in the early 1980s. There is the possibility of near term cash flow from a re-drill or
work over of an old shut in well in the block. This well was not brought on production at the
then time of prevailing low oil prices because it required artificial lift to bring the oil to
surface and this higher cost production methodology was not considered by the operator.
Carnarvon, as Operator of the L20/50 block, plans to fast track exploration to reach an
early drilling decision on the block. A similar exploration philosophy will be applied to
exploration on the block in a basin that is a direct geological analogue to the Phetchabun
Basin lying ~50 kilometres to the east of the L20/50 block. Carnarvon and its joint venture
partner Pan Orient Energy have been extremely successful in the Phetchabun Basin in the
last 12 - 18 months in exploring new play concepts, particularly the fractured volcanic play
in the basin. Exploration success here from new field discoveries in the environs of their
Wichian Biri Field has seen production rise from less than 50 to greater than 6,000 barrels
of oil per day.
\\SUNRES01\Users\Jmv\My Documents\Sun Resources NL\ASX\Thailand L20 50 Block Award 40108.Doc
2.
Dr Brad Farrell, Executive Chairman of Sun Resources commented:
“The official award of highly prospective block L20/50 has been made and accepted by the
joint venture. Sun Resources looks forward to the commencement of an aggressive
exploration program under Carnarvon’s operatorship on the very lightly explored, southern
portion of the highly prospective and productive Phitsanulok Basin, which will hopefully
lead to early drilling success.”


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## JTLP (7 January 2008)

You just beat me MS Trade!

Seems this little piece of info (although one would assume was expected as they were the sole bidders) has turned the tide on the shareprice and pushed us into positive territory for now. Hopefully we can hold these gains today.


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## Riles (7 January 2008)

More fantastic news from CVN. Congrats to them and SUR and all holders on the award of this block. I hold both so I'm doubly happy today.
It's nice to be in a stock who's SP ignores the current market volatility and can continue upwards despite all the selling pressure around it.

Hope they can fast track work on this new block. CVN should have some cash to throw at it by now!
We'll now be getting news from yet another field, along with Na Sunan, Na Sunan East, Wichian Buri, Bo Rang, Si Thep....

Should be another good year for CVN


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## Rob 17 (7 January 2008)

More good news for CVN.  

Hopefully as the company continues to grow it will be included in the S&P/ASX 300 RESOURCES or S&P/ASX 300 Energy  as Tap Oil is.

Looking forward to tomorrow as the market digests the info released  today overnight. 

DYOR


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## Jack_Junior (8 January 2008)

Howdy all,
First time poster here...

Just wanted to pass on my thanks to the posters on this thread for leading me into investing in CVN albeit only a small package (16k @ .685).

Everything sounded so rosie for CVN so I started doing my own research and doubt that I could have found a better stock to buy after being stopped out of IRL (bought 80,000 @ .25 as my first ever investment in the stock exchange and had to sell at .15 after 3 months of pain).

CVN really does look the goods atm so I wish you all the very best and hope we can all enjoy the ride (even though I'm starting off 10 grand in the red)

Cheers

JJ


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## MS+Tradesim (9 January 2008)

Well, I got out today. Looking for a better re-entry over the next few weeks. If that doesn't occur I'll take a smaller position and buy something else. Lovely fat return. Taxman is going to love me.


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## Go Nuke (9 January 2008)

I'm tempted to sell out after today too.

My technical indictors look as though we might see a small retracement, perhaps as low as .625 which looked like some good support.

Stochastics say overbought and have turned down and it looks like the MACD might vey well cross down too.

I will probably hold out though, hopeing a good day on the DOW will boost the sp back up
Just my


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## Rob 17 (9 January 2008)

If you wanted to get out it would have made sense to get out in the mid 70's a few days ago on a high note instead of selling on a overall red day. IMO

People holding on now will be waiting for the next results due out at the end of the month unless they really really need the funds.  

If CVN comes back to the low 60's ill buy my last batch. I started buying the stock in the low 30's,  my last buy was in early Nov for .53cents. 

DYOR


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## MS+Tradesim (9 January 2008)

> If you wanted to get out it would have made sense to get out in the mid 70's a few days ago on a high note instead of selling on a overall red day. IMO




That's right. It's your opinion. You don't know my trading plan or strategies. Today signalled an exit. Yesterday, or the day before, didn't.


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## gfresh (9 January 2008)

Classic move today to bust the stops, which rapidly happened once 70c was pierced - fell rapidly to 67.5 before buyers quickly snapped back. Bots were working it all day, small sell orders. 

I refuse to sell when somebody is obviously trying to take my shares off me at a low price and let them "win", but each to their own


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## MS+Tradesim (9 January 2008)

What's with all the defensiveness here? I stuck to my plan and that's all that matters. If your plan is different, so be it. Happy trading. Make money.


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## Rob 17 (9 January 2008)

MS+Tradesim said:


> Rob,
> 
> 
> I am a believer and a long-term (into the future holder) but that has no relevance to the short-term price action and the way traders can change sentiment on a stock. I also would advise caution, but am looking for further growth.




I just thought you were a long termer................ in CVN 

Each to there own. Good Luck


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## MS+Tradesim (9 January 2008)

I will be back in as soon as I see a reason - fundamentally CVN is a no-brainer.  But preservation of capital is the single most important factor for long-term survival in the markets, and when it comes to a flood of negative sentiment, the greatest fundamentals in the world won't stop a stock falling. USA is heading into recession. On average the US market falls *28%* in a recession. This informs my plans. It is my belief I will pick up CVN at a bargain. If I miss out, so be it. There are always opportunities. 

It's important to remember that nobody trades the markets. We only trade our *beliefs* about the markets. I am prepared for my beliefs to turn out wrong and I have alternate strategies for that eventuality. What about you guys? What happens if you're wrong? Do you have a strategy to get you out and back in and preserve your capital?

I didn't want to get out but everything in my system (which includes macro-events) indicates it's time to do so. I hope I'm wrong. But in the meantime, I'll follow my plan. Good luck to all. 

http://www.rgemonitor.com/blog/roubini/235798/


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## Garpal Gumnut (9 January 2008)

Garpal Gumnut said:


> I'm a little disquieted having read some of "another forum", suggesting brokers, some prophets and seers etc. now see CVN as a buy. This is often a bad sign.
> 
> I enclose a daily chart from Sept 07 to today.
> 
> ...




Just an updated chart for the fundamentalists and the believers.

CVN should find some support at either 60c , 44c or 28c as per enclosed chart. 

Volume is not supportive of a rise past previous highs anytime soon.

gg


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## JTLP (9 January 2008)

GG if it sinks to 28 cents i think the CVN dream will be over. If people let short falls cloud their judgement (instead of using F/A) then I think their will be a lot of negative sentiment around CVN. 

Having said that, was not expecting the large late sell off today. Im thinking a retrace to 65 cents, with sideways movements, before powering on.

Remember, lots more drills and production license...can't all be bad


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## Biggle (10 January 2008)

I don't believe the major sell off just after 3pm today was anything other then a sucessful play by a large player to manipulate the SP, a sudden placement of a few 1 million share sells strategically placed a few cents above the current SP, to rattle a few sellers, then when that didn't work, two large almost simultaneous sell orders were put in that had their desired effect of triggering stop losses from .70 down to .675. this occured in the space of minutes, with about 2 million shares changing hands in the last hour.
This with the continual bot buying and selling of small orders for at least the last week proves to me CVN is a highly desirable share by some professional players. Why wouldn't it be with another potential good news release anytime in the next 3 or 4 trading days. It will be interesting to see what happens with CVN tommorow if the DOW finally has a good day tonight.


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## Go Nuke (10 January 2008)

Rob 17 said:


> If you wanted to get out it would have made sense to get out in the mid 70's a few days ago on a high note instead of selling on a overall red day. IMO
> 
> People holding on now will be waiting for the next results due out at the end of the month unless they really really need the funds.
> 
> ...




I dont really see why it would have been good to get out in the mid 70's myself.
You are not going to catch the top everytime.
CVN had a few good days of clear candles, but i based my thoughts on selling based on the *technical indicators* that _I saw!_

Anyway....I still hold


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## wildmanchris (10 January 2008)

Nice stock to trade - I believe an even nicer stock to hold for the long term.

This one is going under my pillow until I want a new car.  Happy to ride the waves.


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## Garpal Gumnut (11 January 2008)

JTLP said:


> GG if it sinks to 28 cents i think the CVN dream will be over. If people let short falls cloud their judgement (instead of using F/A) then I think their will be a lot of negative sentiment around CVN.
> 
> Having said that, was not expecting the large late sell off today. Im thinking a retrace to 65 cents, with sideways movements, before powering on.
> 
> Remember, lots more drills and production license...can't all be bad




Thanks.
I'd never disagree with a funnymentalist.
Still going down on increasing volume now.
Lets see if it kicks up off 65 today or goes sideways, as fundies hope, or heads for next support at 60c.

gg


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## JTLP (11 January 2008)

Garpal Gumnut said:


> Thanks.
> I'd never disagree with a funnymentalist.
> Still going down on increasing volume now.
> Lets see if it kicks up off 65 today or goes sideways, as fundies hope, or heads for next support at 60c.
> ...




I'll give you one thing, you predicted it and I hope i'm not eating my hat!
BUT
Can we see another spectacular rise over this year like last?
Does anybody have any Hartley's reports (updated) on CVN?


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## wipz (11 January 2008)

Fellas, I wouldn't worry too much about this stock if you're holding for 2008. 36 wells to be drilled in very prospective areas.  Times like these I am topping up to reap the benefits come december.  Cheers


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## Riles (12 January 2008)

johnnyg said:


> Good to see different views on charts. Heres my daily chart from Sep 07 also.
> 
> Almost all trading is within the 3 trend channels bar a shortrise above line 4 around 12/11/07. Fell quite heavily from there but found support at longterm uptrend (line 1) and recovered. For the past 2 weeks CVN has been trading in the middle trend channel. As you can see quite a few times line 2 provided support. Todays close is just about line 3. Will be interesting to see if it will provide support and for trading to continue in the 3rd channel.
> 
> ...




Continuing on from johnnyg's chart which showed CVN trading within 3 channels, we have subsequently seen the SP climb to the top of the channels at line 4 and predictably retrace.

If all goes to plan and the SP continues in this pattern (of course it won't now that I've said that...) we should see another down day Monday with a bit of a blowoff downwards to 60c, then hopefully followed by a rebound as buyers re-emerge.
We'll be expecting news Monday night re WB-1 deep testing results and this has perhaps even bigger potential than the last well so I would expect people to be taking positions in anticipation by Monday pm.

Here's a chart with my prediction for Monday drawn in place. A bit hard to see but basically I'm thinking an open around 65, a low around 61 and a close around 63. Also possibility of a close higher than open based on WB-1 buyers, but either way I'm thinking the bottom will be in by mid morning Monday.


----------



## Garpal Gumnut (12 January 2008)

Riles said:


> Continuing on from johnnyg's chart which showed CVN trading within 3 channels, we have subsequently seen the SP climb to the top of the channels at line 4 and predictably retrace.
> 
> If all goes to plan and the SP continues in this pattern (of course it won't now that I've said that...) we should see another down day Monday with a bit of a blowoff downwards to 60c, then hopefully followed by a rebound as buyers re-emerge.
> We'll be expecting news Monday night re WB-1 deep testing results and this has perhaps even bigger potential than the last well so I would expect people to be taking positions in anticipation by Monday pm.
> ...




I agree, predictions are difficult aren't they. It would fit in with recent price and volume action, and those channels. 

gg


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## Rob 17 (13 January 2008)

Riles said:


> We'll be expecting news Monday night re WB-1 deep testing results




CALGARY, ALBERTA--(Marketwire - Jan. 2, 2008) - 
"Testing is anticipated to be completed within the next 12 days, initiating in 5 days after the Aztec 14 rig has been moved off location."

Ill be expecting news more to the end of the months as testing will start 5 days after Aztec 14 rig has been moved off location.

I'll be watching POE closely on www.tsx.com

This tread has become a bit wishy washy as people have jumped on board. The "originals" who were very informative no longer post.

DYOR  
Good Bye for now


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## Riles (13 January 2008)

Rob 17 said:


> CALGARY, ALBERTA--(Marketwire - Jan. 2, 2008) -
> "Testing is anticipated to be completed within the next 12 days..."



Well Rob17, to me that sounds like testing is anticipated to be *completed within the next 12 days*.
So from Jan 2 that would mean by Jan 14 which is Monday.
It may be late a day or 2 like the last well but it shouldn't be too far off from Monday.




> This tread has become a bit wishy washy as people have jumped on board. The "originals" who were very informative no longer post.




I was just killing a bit of time between ann's, following up on a prior post regarding the trading patterns.
Hopefully some may find it interesting enough to read and comment on. I think we all know about the fundamentals by now, but to me the chart trading pattern is interesting at the moment.

I've been holding since August and have accumulated a lot of them now.
I tried a short term trade with some of them once and got it wrong so decided to just keep buying the dips when I could. Thankfully CVN have kept on succeeding so the SP has kept trending up, albeit with a lot of volatility.
I'm happy to continue holding and will look to add more tomorrow.
Good luck to all.


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## johnnyg (13 January 2008)

Riles, here is update on my chart, with both short term downtrend lines taken from similar retraces in previous months, marked as 1 & 2. I placed these on after the spike to the top trendline. May have to place a buy in tomorrow.

Regards.


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## WRONG'UN (14 January 2008)

Hi Johnnyg
How about changing the colour of the dark blue text - I can't read it.
That's less than 100 characters - now I hope it's long enough.


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## johnnyg (14 January 2008)

Wrongun it read - Looking for a re-entry around 0.66 which is a .786 fib retracement. Possible entry @ 0.62 with a 1.0 retrace on fib, however not likely, will keep a close eye on the dow to see how it affects CVN.

Hands up who the lucky buggers were who got some @ 0.61 this morning? Dam having a day job LOL, but i brought back in at mid-day.


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## Riles (14 January 2008)

I missed out too Johnnyg!
Had a visitor over and missed the 2 drops this morning - after all that analysis too lol!
Shoulda had a buy order in place, had to pay 65c. Still confident that this was a good entry.
WB-1 sounds promising - all that lost circulation into such a large reservoir - could be huge.


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## JTLP (14 January 2008)

Especially when they stopped drilling at like 79 metres of the 220 metre thick zone (or something to that effect).

Has anyone got any updated Hartley's reports concerning CVN? I remember someone saying $1.23 and if this well is good $1.53 or something? Not too sure though!

And how does everyone feel about CVN standing up in '08? With overall market sentiment down can CVN find some new players to push it to the stratosphere?


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## Riles (14 January 2008)

The latest broker report I know of is the Hartleys Dec one on Carnarvon's website.
This was prior to the L44h-d1 flow rates so was done when the JV was at 6,000bopd.

Some snippets following: Note this WB-1 deep target we're waiting on now is not a low flow rate sandstone play, but a fractured volcanic like those found in NSE.


Valuation Increased to 89cps - We have updated our valuation of CVN based on full development of the Na Sanun East field. Further exploration success in other fields such as Wichian Buri, Bo Rang, Si Thep and offshore WA could deliver additional upside to our valuation.


Wichian Buri and Si Thep are sandstone plays that have been producing for some 20 years; however, individual wells generally produce at a very low flow rate. Na Sanun and Na Sanun East contain the same sandstone plays, but are most significant because of the discovery of additional oil bearing formations in a relatively new play type pertaining to volcanic structures. These reservoirs typically produce at significantly higher flow rates than the Wichian Buri and Si Thep fields.


Whilst the production license is being processed, a slowdown in field appraisal and development at Na Sanun
East is anticipated in January to allow field teams a break from the recent hectic schedule. There will still be
plenty of activity however in relation to the drilling of prospects in other fields and appraisal of the as yet
untested volcanic zones in Na Sanun East that have showed encouraging signs.

An historic well, Wichian Buri 1, encountered *fractured volcanics* at depth but was never tested due to the lack of understanding of this type of reservoir. This prospect will be retested by Carnarvon. Success at Wichian Buri and Si Thep, in particular, could yield immediate pay off as existing infrastructure could be utilised.
Other possible activities include the shutting in of wells such as POE-9 to test the other volcanic zones that have
been intersected. This would not affect sales in the short term as the 6000 bopd limit imposed by infrastructure
constraints would be fully utilised even with one or more wells shut in.

Reserves Value
The 21mmbbls gross reserves expected equates to 10mmbbls net to Carnarvon and at $21 NPV/boe gives a
conservative valuation of 36cps.
With the addition of Wichian Buri reserves of 2.8mmbbls @ $19 NPV/boe giving a valuation of 9cps, the share
price is underpinned at 45c. We believe that resource estimates (gross) are more likely in the range 40mmbbls
(80% probability) to 100mmbbls (10% probability) – putting the value in the range $0.49 to $1.32 for Na Sanun
East alone.


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## johnnyg (14 January 2008)

Riles said:


> I missed out too Johnnyg!
> Had a visitor over and missed the 2 drops this morning - after all that analysis too lol!
> Shoulda had a buy order in place, had to pay 65c. Still confident that this was a good entry.
> WB-1 sounds promising - all that lost circulation into such a large reservoir - could be huge.




LOL true, my only worry with a buy order in at say 0.61-0.62 and being away from the screen would be that if it broke the bottom longterm uptrend (which it did just briefly today) kept falling you could come home and find youself in abit of trouble. Id rather pay a few cents more (in @ 0.645) and see the SP find support and bounce before entering. (which it did today)

Todays candle could signify a trend reversal. Which I think may be confirmed by tomorrows trading. 

Regards


----------



## derbon99 (14 January 2008)

JTLP said:


> Especially when they stopped drilling at like 79 metres of the 220 metre thick zone (or something to that effect).
> 
> Has anyone got any updated Hartley's reports concerning CVN? I remember someone saying $1.23 and if this well is good $1.53 or something? Not too sure though!
> 
> And how does everyone feel about CVN standing up in '08? With overall market sentiment down can CVN find some new players to push it to the stratosphere?




There was an update but not a full report from Hartley. I can confirm the new price target is 1.23 (beginning of january)


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## hyperterminal (15 January 2008)

Does anyone know what time the announcements usually pop up on marketwire for POE? Hoping might catch some news tonight on latest drill for CVN.


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## Garpal Gumnut (15 January 2008)

hyperterminal said:


> Does anyone know what time the announcements usually pop up on marketwire for POE? Hoping might catch some news tonight on latest drill for CVN.




Looking at the recent bars on this chart I do not think that there will be any news of note out of Thailand tonight. 

Usually the rickshaw is ahead of the noodles on well reports 

Volume and price either go up or down on the ASX during the day, prior to the announcement. 

Todays volume is low and the price is indecisive. The price opened and closed just up slightly, with a range up and down not showing much appetite for buying or selling.

gg


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## hyperterminal (15 January 2008)

"Usually the rickshaw is ahead of the noodles on well reports" haha like that one garpal! yeh I was thinking the same thing looking at the volume and movement today, but was hoping...


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## derbon99 (15 January 2008)

hyperterminal said:


> does anyone know what time the announcements usually pop up on marketwire for POE? Hopeing might catch some news tonight on latest drill for CVN




I am in contact with the analyst who make the coverage on CVN and he told me that the report will be due this week. 

Be patient


----------



## hyperterminal (15 January 2008)

yeh patience was never a good virtue of mine, just like waiting for santa at chrissy and to think 34 more christmas eve's this yr to go awaiting santa's drilling results


----------



## hyperterminal (15 January 2008)

UPDATE IN BUT NOT AS HOPED ALTHOUGH GOOD TO SEE LOGISTICS BEING SORTED OUT...

Pan Orient Energy Corp.: Thailand Operations Update
CALGARY, ALBERTA--(Marketwire - Jan. 15, 2008) - Pan Orient Energy Corp. (TSX VENTUREOE) - 

NOT FOR DISSEMINATION TO U.S. NEWSWIRE SERVICES OR FOR DISSEMINATION IN THE UNITED STATES.

WICHIAN BURI-1 "DEEP" (60% WI & Operator)

The WB-1 (Deep) exploration well has been abandoned after testing small amounts of natural gas with approximately 750 barrels of water per day from an open hole volcanic interval between approximately 1,500 to 1,590 meters. A second, shallower, 10m thick volcanic at approximately 1,200 meters that had oil shows, but no lost circulation while drilling, was perforated and found tight. WB-1 (Deep) will be completed as a future water disposal well.

In the latter half of 2008 the Company plans to drill Wichian Buri F sandstone development wells north of WB-1 (Deep) and will once again target the same potential volcanic reservoirs in a much structurally higher position.

L44-R Exploration Well (60% WI & Operator)

The moderate risk, high impact L44-R exploration well is located approximately 10.5 kms south of the producing NSE oilfield and within the main volcanic reservoir play fairway, is anticipated to start drilling in 5 days. The well is targeting an approximately 7 square km structural closure with multiple potential volcanic reservoir targets between 800 to 1,300 meters. Drilling is anticipated to take 17-24 days.

Production Update

Further to the December 12, 2007, news release, production has grown as anticipated and is currently approximately 7,350 bopd gross (4,410 bopd net to Pan Orient) with a current fleet of 41 tankers transporting the oil to the Bangkok refinery. Six additional tankers are anticipated to become available shortly, which will increase production to approximately 8,450 bopd gross (5,070 bopd net) and further tanker capacity has been arranged which will permit production to increase to the current field production capacity, from existing wells, of approximately 10,000 bopd gross (6,000 bopd net) by late February to early March.


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## Riles (15 January 2008)

Bummer. Was getting used to good oil flows with every new well! Was particularly hoping they could open up this new field with a good success first up but not this time unfortunately.

Still all's not lost with WB yet as they will try again further afield later this year.

Good to see they are getting more tankers and seem to have resolved the transport bottleneck.

Expect some downward pressure on the SP, but as I see it they should be over 70c based on the previous ann which added 4000bopd. Any selloff will create yet another buying opportunity IMO.


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## derbon99 (16 January 2008)

A bit disappointing these results... The news on the tankers is good but everything else is s... Take care tomorrow it will be shaking time...


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## JTLP (16 January 2008)

This is gonna get ugly. Traders will dump this like no tomorrow. Am going to try and pick the bottom like last time (snagged a nice packet at 46 cents). 

CVN is still producting at a nice net (according to the POE ann CVN will truck 4000 bopd by late feb/march) which also correlates to the time that the production license is due!

Lucky they put in a tick about tankers :


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## Riles (16 January 2008)

Really, CVN can afford to rest on its laurels for now. 
They've got about 50 tankers running up & down the highway and still can't move all their oil!

It's a good time for them to be moving into new areas and testing more risky plays.
We can expect a higher percentage of duds for a while as they drill more exploration and development wells than production wells.


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## Go Nuke (16 January 2008)

Wow hasn't it got smashed today!!

Down 18+%
Would the fact that WB1 has been abandoned re-rate the stock? How much was riding on it?

I'm kinda kicking myself for not selling at around 70c but I'm getting kind of use to making wrong decisions

I suppose CVN still has alot of upside, so i guess I will hold.

Anyone got any thoughts on where the sp will go from here?


----------



## INORE (16 January 2008)

yeah...not the best of timing for an announcement of a duster...i'm sure alot of buys today would have been people sitting on the side waiting for this opportunity.  CVN has slumped around 32% in the past fortnite.  I also think that alot of short to mid term holders are sitting on very good profits and hit the sell button when they see it drop by 1/3....unfortunately i think a market in turmoil can sometimes affect strong performing stocks more because there are alot more holders in profit.


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## Riles (16 January 2008)

My thoughts...
It'll either go up or down or sideways from here 

Seriously it has been oversold today. Dow down, daytraders bailing,  XAO smashed, stops hit...WB-1 was just the trigger but will be all forgotten about soon.

If the US rallies and confidence re-emerges, then we can resume normal trading and we'll look at this as an opportunity presented.

Not sure about tomorrow though, we haven't seen capitulation day on the asx yet...


----------



## JTLP (16 January 2008)

CVN oversold for sure. They miss one target and the DT's pull it down. Just remember they are producing oil, license to come blah blah.

And in regards to WB-1, from reading the report (feel free to correct me), that they will drill other parts of the field later on in the year.


----------



## MS+Tradesim (16 January 2008)

Yep, oversold but high probability of worse to come with more bad news out of USA due over the next few nights.


----------



## hyperterminal (16 January 2008)

I think your right tradesman - another ruff day tomorrow, US will go negative again in wednesday trade - Intel last qrt profits off wall streets expectations, this couple with inflation figures annoucement outside acceptable band - which will make US punters worried that the US reserve may not be as agressive with interest reductions as they may have when they meet on the 30th - another 1.5-2% tomorrow IMHO


----------



## treefrog (16 January 2008)

just shows there is no such thing in the oil/gas game as a hi probability strike - no matter how phobic the ramping


----------



## Boggo (16 January 2008)

tech/a said:


> *CVN*
> HEG
> NCM
> 
> ...




I think that tech/a was onto the wave 5 completion by 81c when he posted on the 6th in the "Which stocks will you be shorting come Monday" thread.

If the 51c does'nt hold then it may be headed for sub 40c.

Intel is going to take the US down tonight, more despair (or opportunity) tomorrow.

Mike
-


----------



## tech/a (17 January 2008)

CVN
Is very tempting with a low risk entry of 55c ish now and a stop of 52c

But I still feel that technically this will rally into the gap from 64c to 58c before testing these lows at 52.5c.
So patience will be my guide here.


----------



## Joe Blow (17 January 2008)

Just removed quite a few posts on this thread that were either:

(a) Ramping
(b) Personal attacks, or;
(c) Posts that quoted a ramp or a personal attack

If you feel someone is ramping please report the post(s) in question by using the report a post feature (clicking on the '
	

	
	
		
		

		
		
	


	




' symbol on the posts in question). Please do not resort to personal attacks.


----------



## Miner (18 January 2008)

Joe Blow said:


> Just removed quite a few posts on this thread that were either:
> 
> (a) Ramping
> (b) Personal attacks, or;
> ...




Good point and nice to see reality has prevailed.
Thanks Joe and it would be nicer to see your message gets posted in all threads and not exclusive to CVN .


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## MS+Tradesim (21 January 2008)

0.48....here comes the panic dumping. I'm getting some great entries here.
Possibly better to come.


----------



## Riles (21 January 2008)

Well done MS for getting out on your exit signal in the sixties.
Must be nice scooping up now at much lower prices.
But why now? I would have thought you would have waited for an entry signal, which hasn't happened yet.


----------



## MS+Tradesim (21 January 2008)

I've had an initial entry signal generated...just not a strong one and is countertrend to the XAO, so only bought a fraction of what I intend to eventually hold again.  High probability of lower prices but I've learnt the hard way that trying to second-guess my signals rarely works...so I just bought smaller.


----------



## imaginator (25 January 2008)

CVN news out!

Signing of another basin with Thai govt.

Does anyone know what;s the price now? Did it jump?


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## adobee (29 January 2008)

I thought this basin was the same one previously talked about, and released by the media a month ago when it was first awared before CVN was aware of it..  Anyway I back on CVN I am confident to let this sit long term with my new entry price whether the market is up or down.


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## JTLP (1 February 2008)

WOW!

Great news for CVN holders!!!

Sole Applications for 2 new Blocks and a great quarterly...

But wait...what is going on here? She is not moving...somebody give me some T/A...F/A looks shmick! Consolidation before next up-leg?


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## derbon99 (1 February 2008)

I ve juste read the report. It's not a bad one, the work goes on. But there is nothing amazing inside. Next step mid-february...


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## JTLP (2 February 2008)

When is that study that CVN did with some Indonesian group due? I think it was done in October '07? Will it have SP impacts? 

Also worth noting is Ted's plan of expansion through SE Asia


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## derbon99 (5 February 2008)

Pan Orient Energy Corp.: Thailand Operations Update
CALGARY, ALBERTA--(Marketwire - Feb. 4, 2008) - Pan Orient Energy Corp. (TSX VENTUREOE) -

NOT FOR DISSEMINATION TO U.S. NEWSWIRE SERVICES OR FOR DISSEMINATION IN THE UNITED STATES.

L44-R Exploration Well (60% WI & Operator)

Intermediate casing is currently being set at a depth of 650 meters on the moderate risk, high impact L44-R exploration well which is located approximately 10.5 kms south of the producing NSE oilfield and within the main volcanic reservoir play fairway. The well is targeting an approximately 7 square km structural closure with multiple potential volcanic reservoir targets between 800 to 1,300 meters. Total depth is anticipated to be reached in approximately 10 days.

Na Sanun East ("NSE") Production License

Thailand's Department of Mineral Fuels has now granted to Pan Orient a 27.8 square km Production License over its NSE oilfield discovery, allowing Pan Orient to continue with its planned NSE full field development program. Pan Orient is anticipating to drill up to 19 wells on the NSE structure during 2008.

Production Update

Further to the January 15, 2008, news release (which announced gross production of 7,350 bopd), tanker capacity has grown as anticipated and gross production of approximately 8,800 bopd (5,280 bopd net to Pan Orient) is currently being sold to the Bangkok refinery. Further tanker additions have been arranged and production will continue to ramp up to the current field production capacity, from existing wells, of approximately 10,000 bopd gross (6,000 bopd net) by late February to early March.

Pan Orient is a Calgary, Alberta based oil and gas exploration and production company with operations currently located onshore Thailand and in Western Canada.


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## JTLP (11 February 2008)

CVN's well is expected to reach TD this friday. The SP hasn't really moved at at all, most likely due to the well being moderate risk. 

Whens the great CVN moving to a dollar?


----------



## Garpal Gumnut (13 February 2008)

JTLP said:


> CVN's well is expected to reach TD this friday. The SP hasn't really moved at at all, most likely due to the well being moderate risk.
> 
> Whens the great CVN moving to a dollar?




Thanks for all the funnymentalist news. From the technical side it is very very exciting. Unlike most shares at the moment CVN has an equal number of buyers and sellers, on low volume , with low spreads,  and is in a sideways movement exactly half way between its recent highs and lows.

So it is ripe for jumping into if it moves up out of this range on higher volume, or selling/ shorting if it goes down on higher volume. 

Chart enclosed 

gg


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## Riles (13 February 2008)

> CVN has an equal number of buyers and sellers, on low volume , with low spreads




Garpal I don't know if you've been watching the trading but for the last week or so there has been an accumulator constantly buying at the offer price in 5000 lots.
Every few trades is his bot buying into the sell depth.

There's been a wall of sellers backed up waiting for him to take there offer in 5000 share parcel nibbles.

I'm convinced the SP would have fallen to 50 or less by now if it weren't for his persistent buying. Must've accumulated millions by now.

It's been weird to see it go on day after day - must end soon one would think. By then the sellers may have run out of steam and we can resume normal trading!

The L44-R exploration well results will come through next week. I don't think anyone is expecting any gushers here.
I can't see there being too much dissapointment if it's a duster being that it's targetting a new area. Any oil shows would be positive though.

Soon after they'll be ramping up their production wells with 19 more wells coming up this year in the NSE area.
That should get the juices flowing again.


----------



## Hank Rollins (14 February 2008)

Anyone know when 2P reserves are due to be released?
I believe it was around the end of February last year.


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## INORE (14 February 2008)

i think they stated that it would be released towards the end of march...i think this release along with transport will be the biggie


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## derbon99 (15 February 2008)

Something is very strange... Pan orient has gained 10% since monday and CVN has lost 10% during the same period.


----------



## JTLP (18 February 2008)

Did CVN produce another duster? I thought the CVN board was pretty tight lipped on pressing releases!

They are getting smashed in recent weeks.

Is it low volume? Substantial holder leaving?

I'm starting to get worried!


----------



## derbon99 (18 February 2008)

The new hartley report is out... It remains a buy with a price target of 1.01. Upside potential quite interesting


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## INORE (20 February 2008)

Feb 20, 2008 06:00 ET
Pan Orient Energy Corp.: Thailand Operations Update
CALGARY, ALBERTA--(Marketwire - Feb. 20, 2008) - Pan Orient Energy Corp. (TSX VENTUREOE) -

NOT FOR DISSEMINATION TO U.S. NEWSWIRE SERVICES OR FOR DISSEMINATION IN THE UNITED STATES.

L44-R Exploration Well (60% WI & Operator)

The L44-R exploration well, targeting multiple potential volcanic reservoirs within an approximately 7 square km structural closure located 10.5 kms south of the producing NSE oil field, is currently being logged after reaching a total depth of approximately 1,277 meters. Three potential volcanic reservoirs of approximately 27 meters, 45 meters and 207 meters in thickness were encountered between 665m to 1,277m. Drilling mud losses were observed in the deepest zone (1,070-1,277 meters) at 1,149m (120 bbls/hr), 1,160m (65 bbls/hr), 1,197m (21 bbls/hr), 1,204m (69 bbls/hr) and 1,219m (32 bbls/hr). Total losses while drilling were approximately 905 barrels of drilling fluid. Elevated mud gas readings approximately 1% or greater were observed at 720m, 731m, 789m and while tripping at 968m. Due to the complex nature of these unconventional volcanic reservoirs, testing will be required to determine the hydrocarbon potential of any given zone.

Testing of up to three volcanic zones is anticipated to be completed within approximately 21 days at which time the test results will be announced.

NS1-D1 Appraisal Well (60% WI & Operator)

Upon the setting of casing in the L44-R exploration well, drilling will commence on the deviated NS1-D1 appraisal well that is targeting the main NSE volcanic reservoir at a location mid way between the POE-9 and NS2-D1 appraisal wells drilled earlier. The purpose of this well is to build production capacity from the main volcanic reservoir at NSE.

Forward Drilling Program

Drilling utilizing two rigs is expected to commence again at the end of February after a delay related to the arrival of new mud pumps from China. It is anticipated this upgrade will significantly increase rig performance.

Several wells over the next eight weeks will be targeting the hydrocarbon potential of a number of zones below the currently producing main zone at NSE. None of these deeper zones have been tested to date.

While the 27.8 square km NSE production license has been awarded by the Government of Thailand, the Company still awaits environmental approval for approximately 27 development drilling locations at both the Wichian Buri and Na Sanun East oil fields. This approval is anticipated within the next 6 weeks, at which time the requirement for a third rig will be reviewed. Pan Orient has numerous other drillable locations it will be proceeding with while it awaits this approval.

Production Update

Further to the February 4, 2008, news release (which announced gross production of 8,800 bopd, 5,280 net), tanker capacity has grown as anticipated and gross production is currently approximately 9,500 bopd (5,700 bopd net to Pan Orient) which is currently being sold to a refinery located in Bangkok. Some early stage issues related to unloading the large number of tankers (approximately 51) had resulted in deliveries on some days falling below 9,000 bopd. Maximum deliveries have been as high as 10,300 bopd gross.


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## doogie_goes_off (21 February 2008)

An exact replica of this ann. was posted for CVN today, can't we even get a bit of commentary from the CEO saying something like "oil sales expected to cause positive cash flow" and "no further delays for drilling expected", atleast we know to wait 3-4 weeks for the next ann.


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## imaginator (28 February 2008)

doogie_goes_off said:


> An exact replica of this ann. was posted for CVN today, can't we even get a bit of commentary from the CEO saying something like "oil sales expected to cause positive cash flow" and "no further delays for drilling expected", atleast we know to wait 3-4 weeks for the next ann.




Um... whats happening today? 0.47 now.

Anyone selling and taking profit now?

Quite tempted to load up more.


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## 1234 (28 February 2008)

Well I must say, pleased to see the new block receiving some recognition on progress so early in the piece. 

Will be an interesting 6 months with more than one focus point in Thai.

Looking fwd to new developments, and ultra frequent field updates.


----------



## derbon99 (29 February 2008)

I am also looking forward to good announcement because since the beginning of 2008 we eat black bread... Boring would be the right word...


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## Go Nuke (3 March 2008)

Well the volume has really dropped off on CVN lately.

Which is a bit of a shame considering the price of oil at the moment.

I hope noone minds but i thought I would post a current chart and my brief thoughts on it.

Todays volume was about double what we have seen over the last few trading days and I believe that a "hammer" has formed with the end of todays price action.

Stochastics have turned up from being oversold and the MACD looks like it could cross over in the next day or two.

Based on the hammer itself and the price of oil, i'm just going to make a note and do a paper trade to see how my thoughts pan out.

Obvious resistance at 56c though.
Are there any forthcomming ann that may add to my short term bullish outlook for CVN?


----------



## Hank Rollins (3 March 2008)

Everyone likes a chart nuke, post away..

L44-R results should be out mid next week. Though they penetrated a number of potential reservoirs, there was no mention of oil over the shakers (at surface) and at the time of the release the sp relfected this imo.

NS1-D1 should provide more joy as it is being deviated along the reservoir between two producing wells, and being drilled, in the words of the company 'to build production capacity'.

inore indicated reserves should be out in march (may be conservative as per last year) and after that there is just the 20 or 30 holes the joint venture are going to drill around the shop!


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## 1234 (9 March 2008)

Ripped from another forum.

CVN to trade on ASX 300 as of 21st March 2008 (timing couldn't be better) 

Check the information here : http://www2.standardandpoors.com/spf/pdf/index/20080306_QuartRebal.pdf

What effect should this have on the co. other than open it up to those who wouldn't necessarily trade in CVN?

Cheers.


----------



## JTLP (12 March 2008)

CVN CVN CVN...with the recent flagging SP (goes with the market ) i thought i would give fellow holders an update and hope to keep spirits high!

Here tis:

- Take a look at the POE website (it is not up and running but a PDF from Feb 2008 gives a general overview of things happening in Thailand). POE state that at Bo-Rang 1 (CVN have 40% stake) that gas was tested at 5.5 MMcf/D. They are currently in discussions with POE about the viability of producing this gas. Oil shows were also found in the deeper volcanic zones.

- CVN is also looking to finalise bids on 2 other oil concessions (they are again the sole bidder on these blocks), so hopefully that can add some exploration success to the bottom line.

- CVN continues to be debt free and is profiting from increased production and record oil prices. Transport costs are relatively low (2.70 USD per barrel or something to that effect)

- 2 Rigs are currently drilling up to a total of 26 wells throughout 2008 (appraisal & exploration) with a 3rd rig to be brought into the action pending approval from Thai Gov't for producing wells.

- CVN to drill its Black Tom project later this year, with a 40mmbbl prospect (located off WA) pending a farm-out arrangement

- Significant upgrade to the current 2P reserves (2.8mmbbl), with the possibility of adding some of the 30.4 mmbbl from the 3P reserves by the end of MARCH '08

- Joint Venture to be producing 20,000 BOPD at the end of '08 (net 8,000 BOPD to CVN)

- There is still no mention of the Indonesian study that CVN undertook back in Oct '07. It apparently determines feasibility or something of that ilk for oil concessions in Indo

- Interpretation of seismic data in Australia (EP 110/EP 424) which CVN has a 35% interest. No idea when this info is to be released (Strike Oil (STX) also have an interest in this project, keep an eye on them).

- Finally, Hartley's have a buy recomm with a target of $1.01. This does not take into account future drilling successes/increases in reserves.

All the best,

JTLP


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## 1234 (12 March 2008)

Cheers JTLP.

I think the biggest prob (If it is one) with CVN is that alot of holders have bottom drawer'ed it.

We (holders) acknowledge the potential and are not fussed with this fluctuation or quiet time.

Ann's will resume soon enough and results will be frequent once again, sparking her into 'life' as per usual..

For now, quietly accumulate like the rest of us


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## INORE (13 March 2008)

yeh thanks JTLP...i really appreciate the overview and research that u have given...I knew it would be a quiet month(but didnt expect it to be low 40's quiet) with cvn ... just a liiiiitle bit longer and i'll be back on board.


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## grace (14 March 2008)

Wasn't the L44R drill results due about now?  They said it would take about 3 weeks to test and I thought that was about 3 weeks ago.  Anyone know?


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## JTLP (14 March 2008)

Grace,

Unfortunately in this instance (I wouldn't say all the time because I love how POE & CVN work together), we won't see results until POE do first. It is due to the nature of the JV (as well as AUS trading before Canada), so possiblt tonight, if not, check monday night (ann on tues for us then!).

A good site to take a look at is:

www.marketwire.com

and search for POE

(ann's usually come out between 10 and 11:30pm AEST) 

JTLP


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## Go Nuke (14 March 2008)

> Wasn't the L44R drill results due about now? They said it would take about 3 weeks to test and I thought that was about 3 weeks ago. Anyone know?




Yep 3 weeks was on Wednesday.

From Pan Orient on the 20th of Feb

_Testing of up to three volcanic zones is anticipated to be completed within approximately 21 days at which time the test results will be announced.
_

So perhaps an ann tonight or Monday like JTLP said.


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## derbon99 (14 March 2008)

You didn't read the report of the 4th march that say that the full result for the well L44-R is due two weeks after this report (=tuesday 18)


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## doogie_goes_off (17 March 2008)

Half year reports were put out on Friday after the market closed, six months profit of 5.1 million. Should be bigeer full year with rise in oil price. Very impressive, also ann due on drilling, should see a little run before Easter.


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## adobee (17 March 2008)

I have just sold some stocks to buy more CVN.. With a cashflow coming in I think they are looking promising compared to many other explorers.. Lets hope for further  good news tomorrow..! !


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## skunkmonkey (20 March 2008)

I've increased my holding at $0.42 today 
  Now I just need to close my eyes so I don't see what a disaster the DOW turns out to be on the next trading day.


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## adobee (26 March 2008)

derbon99 said:


> You didn't read the report of the 4th march that say that the full result for the well L44-R is due two weeks after this report (=tuesday 18)




mmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmm..... today is the 26th March .... or have I missed something ?? a small kick to push this along and away 40c would be nice..!


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## skunkmonkey (26 March 2008)

Wooooo Hooooo I'm all smiles.  
Up 15% on my purchase at 42 cents.                              
Go share price Go!


----------



## adobee (27 March 2008)

I have purchased more at 45c .. I am really hoping we get some strong news in the next couple of weeks that will bring back the markets interest for CVN .. I dont think it will take much to be back at 60c +


----------



## grace (27 March 2008)

adobee said:


> I have purchased more at 45c .. I am really hoping we get some strong news in the next couple of weeks that will bring back the markets interest for CVN .. I dont think it will take much to be back at 60c +




I had news due early this week on NS1 D1 and POE 9A (taken from my scribble so numbers and letters could be out a bit).  Running late I presume......


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## MangaNOID (27 March 2008)

well lets hope this delay is because they are testing the flow rate of the new well

i had a look back over a few drill announcements and whenever they were overdue it came up as a strike! this is not a reliable interpretation of course but it keeps our spirits alive hey...

but watching the trading over the last few days its slowing down in turnover and looks to me that fewer people are willing to sell in a desperate manner which seemed like the case a week ago and before that. 

lots of news over the next week hopefully all will be good, its very exciting...fingers crossed.

(waiting on drill results is so much like gambling)


----------



## Riles (27 March 2008)

Yep it's been an unusually long time between ann for CVN/POE. 5 weeks since they said testing should be completed within 21 days.
Maybe there is something significant down L44-R?
Would be nice to think there may be another commercial reservoir in that 207m zone. 
Wishful thinking but given the extra time taken to come out with results has me more optimistic than pessimistic.

They should also have results for NS1-D1 and POE-9 by now so given their strike rate there's a good chance that there'll be some good news in the next ann.

The 2 rigs must be ready to commence 2 new targets by now?


----------



## Rob 17 (27 March 2008)

Testing should have finished some time ago. There has not been any major movement with the JV share price.

Maybe they are stalling so that they can release some good drilling news with the results. IMO

Ill be looking to get back in if it tests the high 30's.


----------



## Viginti (28 March 2008)

Up 5% so far today....someone in the know buying up??

If this heads into a halt it could suggest positive news....


----------



## INORE (28 March 2008)

yeah, there has been some good size packages bought over the past hour.  I expect a nice rally within the last 30 minutes of trade.  There seems to be a few people saying that the longer this flow test announce takes the more likely that it will be a positive as they are expecting an more detailed analysis (ie longer time taken) if there was a new feild discovery.  I'm not 100% on that theory but seems nice to dream...


----------



## JTLP (28 March 2008)

Viginti said:


> Up 5% so far today....someone in the know buying up??
> 
> If this heads into a halt it could suggest positive news....




I have never seen CVN head into a Halt.

By god if it did that would be sweet, but yeah, never seen it in one


----------



## JTLP (29 March 2008)

Hi guys,

Just thought I'd let you know that I have e-mailed CVN regarding a few things...they are:

- Awarding of blocks L52/50 & 53/50. Was Pearl (who bid on behalf of CVN) still the sole bidder on these blocks? 
When did the applications close?

- When can the market expect an update on the reserves? (I always assumed end of March but people have stated May )

- When can the market expect to hear an announcement regarding the 3 wells currently being logged/tested? Has their been a delay in results due to a backlog etc?

That's a summary...looking for a response by Monday!

Cheers

JTLP


----------



## JTLP (31 March 2008)

Hi guys,

Still no response from the company...but alas we did receive a drilling update today. L44-R has the potential to be a new oilfield discovery...i like the sound of that. The operator has upgraded the status of 2 large volcanic reservoir prospects at Si Thep and Nong Bua.There are now plans to start drill pad construction at Si Thep and Nong Bua immediately. 

POE-9A is an appraisal well and is delivering over 200+ barrels an hour, should add nicely to the reserves.

L44H-D2 is currently being drilled to test deep volcanic targets within the Producing Zone of NSE central fault. This well has big potential as it is only 640 metres from the L44-H producing well, which is currently producing over 3,600 bopd.

Just as I finish this i notice a sell order for 100,000 and the price knocked down to .48 cents.

Keeping chugging baby boy


----------



## Herms (31 March 2008)

Hey JTLP,

CVN found oil but why do people dump their share? 

Anyone have any idea ?

Cheers,

Herms


----------



## JTLP (31 March 2008)

Hi Herms,

CVN found very minimal traces of oil from L44-R, but there is the possibilty of a new field there due to the presence of the volcanic structure/fault line (that is from my understanding of the ann...don't quote it!).

My guess as to why the SP dropped is simple...people were probably expecting the L44-R to be a gusher, with BOPD in the hundreds or thousands. When this ann was put out, it wasn't what the Short Term trader's wanted, so they moved out. The delays in the ann had people believing they had found a new oil field...hence a rise in SP


----------



## MangaNOID (31 March 2008)

the sp drop was probably the directors selling some of their newly aquired shares which they got for 7cents......perhaps


----------



## Herms (31 March 2008)

Hey JTLP,

Thanks for the enlightment. Now I'm ready to go to the Nirvana  

It's a shame that such a great company trading for such a low price just my opinion and I hold this stock. 

Cheers, 

Herms


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## MS+Tradesim (31 March 2008)

JTLP said:


> Hi guys,
> POE-9A is an appraisal well and is delivering over 200+ barrels an hour, should add nicely to the reserves.




Be careful. It is not delivering 200+ barrels/hr of oil. That figure is referring to the rate of lost circulation of drilling fluids.


----------



## JTLP (31 March 2008)

MS+Tradesim said:


> Be careful. It is not delivering 200+ barrels/hr of oil. That figure is referring to the rate of lost circulation of drilling fluids.




Ooops!

You are right MS+Tradesim...my quick glance failed to recognise this! Thanks for that


----------



## adobee (1 April 2008)

So can the oil buffs advise if the announcement is good bad or neutral.. I am sure the talk of mud doesnt reflect well across the general market .. there seems to be some upside though ..?


----------



## MangaNOID (2 April 2008)

very interesting, I have just been reading through the POE version of the JV announcement that came out monday. an interesting line was left OUT of the CVN announcement about POE9-A appraisal well currently drilling.

"Numerous oil shows have been encountered while drilling thus far."

why would CVN leave this out?

link to maretwire POE ann... http://www.marketwirecanada.com/mw/rel_ca.jsp?id=837819&k=poe


----------



## wipz (2 April 2008)

This kind of reminds me when they drilled POE-9 =]
Can't wait till they sink in some development wells into this new area.


----------



## Rob 17 (3 April 2008)

Does anyone know why CVN's joint venture partner has fallen so much? 

Have the thailand results had anything to do with it? 

DYOR


----------



## JTLP (3 April 2008)

Rob 17 said:


> Does anyone know why CVN's joint venture partner has fallen so much?
> 
> Have the thailand results had anything to do with it?
> 
> DYOR




By CVN's JV partner I assume you mean POE (but you could be referring to SUR).

Firstly, If POE, I don't look at their chart so I can't tell you...but the few glances I have seen it has had an ALMIGHTY run from September '07. Maybe it's time for a breather? Maybe their shares get traded a lot too? Maybe their other projects in Canada have problems? Decreasing Oil prices? Many many factors.

If you are referring to SUR, then that is pretty self explanatory. SUR basically have a lease, L20/50 with CVN, which is not planning to be tested until late 2008, although they are planning to do aeromagnetic survey's over the concession (pending environmental approval) in April.

They also have a USA exploration program which is only ramping up testing/production at the end of 2008.

Basically, it is a long time for anything to get moving on SUR, and even when it will, it's really only 5 wells to be tested (*that could increase throughout the year through other JV's etc*). People don't like specs in this market volatilty, and SUR doesn't look to have any projects on the G-O atm, hence my reasoning as to the languishing SP.

Thanks!

JTLP


----------



## 1234 (5 April 2008)

adobee said:


> So can the oil buffs advise if the announcement is good bad or neutral.. I am sure the talk of mud doesnt reflect well across the general market .. there seems to be some upside though ..?




It's a neutral 'wait and see', we missed the spot.

The talk of mud is drilling fluid not mud as in, "we're pumping mud not oil". It's actually very good in the context of the an.

The JV are actively ramping up production, have a look at the POE presentation from the Feb London oil conference. They assume 20,000 barrels by end of '08. 

Gonna be a big second half of the year. 

The dump was from traders who would have sold anyway, regardless of ann.


----------



## Riles (6 April 2008)

JTLP said:


> If you are referring to SUR, then that is pretty self explanatory. SUR basically have a lease, L20/50 with CVN, which is not planning to be tested until late 2008, although they are planning to do aeromagnetic survey's over the concession (pending environmental approval) in April.
> 
> They also have a USA exploration program which is only ramping up testing/production at the end of 2008.
> 
> ...



JTLP, while I agree with you that specs like SUR will be sold off,
With regard to SUR they have more going on than just the L20/50 exploration licence JV with CVN.
Their recent Hartleys report shows that they are currently producing net revenue of $2m pa from their 3 US projects. This alone according to Hartleys underpins the SP at 12cps.
And they are hoping to double revenues from these assets next FY.

In fact they also have their fingers in quite a few other pies and Hartleys goes on to give a risked valuation of 17-23cps with an unrisked upside potential of $2.72

All this unrisked upside comes from future exploration potential, not the least from synergies from CVN’s existing success in Thailand.

I hold CVN and SUR. Their (SUR) languishing SP doesn’t worry me. I’m happy to accumulate more at these prices and hope that next year they will see the same success in Thailand  that CVN/POE have had in NSE.


----------



## JTLP (7 April 2008)

Riles said:


> JTLP, while I agree with you that specs like SUR will be sold off,
> With regard to SUR they have more going on than just the L20/50 exploration licence JV with CVN.
> Their recent Hartleys report shows that they are currently producing net revenue of $2m pa from their 3 US projects. This alone according to Hartleys underpins the SP at 12cps.
> And they are hoping to double revenues from these assets next FY.
> ...




Riles, you'll have to forgive me. I don't follow SUR at all and was just trying to give a quick overview of the situation! CVN are also producing, but unfortunately in these volatile times, small cap producers are overlooked, and I decided to give an announcement type scenario (i.e things to look forward to ppl who hold SUR) and reasons for a drop (impatient ppl who do not like no news/ann's so sell out).

Sorry! No harm to little SUR. If it becomes a CVN type scenario for you Riles then i'd have to say you would be pretty 

JTLP


----------



## derbon99 (14 April 2008)

Update on reserve for JV partner... Just for you 

Pan Orient Announces 2007 Year End Reserves Update
CALGARY, ALBERTA--(Marketwire - April 14, 2008) - 

NOT FOR DISSEMINATION TO U.S. NEWSWIRE SERVICES OR FOR DISSEMINATION IN THE UNITED STATES.

Pan Orient Energy Corp. (TSX VENTUREOE) has released its 2007 year-end combined reserves estimates, including its previously announced Andora heavy oil reserves in Canada (as evaluated by DeGoyler and MacNaughton Canada Limited), and its reserves update in Thailand (as evaluated by Gaffney Cline & Associates Ltd., Singapore). Additionally, Pan Orient's 2007 complete Canadian and Thailand NI-51-101 compliant reserves report filings can be found online at www.sedar.com.

Pan Orient's President and Chief Executive Officer, Jeff Chisholm, stated "We are very pleased with these significant reserve increases, considering that our Na Sanun East appraisal program was only approximately 5 months old at the year end evaluation date. We look forward to expanding the aerial extend of our drilling, as well as testing of the multiple potential oil bearing volcanic zones at NSE."

Highlights:

- Proven Thailand recoverable reserves of 3.85 million barrels of oil, an increase of 614% from 0.54 million barrels in prior year.

- Proven + Probable Thailand recoverable reserves of 17.0 million barrels of oil, an increase of approximately 280% from 4.47 million barrels in prior year.

- Proven + Probable + Possible Thailand recoverable reserves assessed at 68.6 million barrels.

Summary:


----------



## JTLP (14 April 2008)

Very nice indeed.

Also to note: Reserve update does include latest drilling etc. Which brings me to my question; how often are reserve estimates/updates completed? Quarterly/bi-annually/annually???

Hopefully this ann would put some of the doubters to bed about CVN's viability and give them a nice boost to the next level.

Maybe an insto or 2 for more backing


----------



## money maker (15 April 2008)

TRADING HALT. Off market till Thursday...

Any ideas why ? Surely not in regards to Pan Orients announcement ????

Takeover ???


----------



## benwex (15 April 2008)

The note by CVN to the ASX says the trading halt is in relation to an upgrade in reserves to be released later today...

Not a take over IMO..

benwex


----------



## Riles (15 April 2008)

It does seem strange they'd request a halt (till Turs) just for the reserves upgrade ann.
Could it be something more?
Drilling updates due around now but once again they could just release these when ready.

Let's hope it something more juicy.


----------



## adobee (15 April 2008)

Reserve Upgrade..  !! At least they have said upgrade this should get some interest from people checking the announcements and trading halts ..
I am suprised that they didnt need to do this at the same time Pan Orient Announces Reserves Update ???   Anyway let keep our fingers crossed that they are big upgrades and grabs some attention !


----------



## adobee (15 April 2008)

The announcement is for a reserve upgrade will be out later this morning .. will they not then commence trading later this afternoon.. I doubt it will be until Thursday ?!?!  Is everyone reading page 2 ?


----------



## JTLP (15 April 2008)

This is getting interesting.

I discount the takeover view, just don't think the time is right for somebody to try for CVN.

I think it will come down to the fact they were too slow getting the ann out to the market, hence the Halt. Would really love to see some production/drilling updates though!

And again, can anybody answer how often reserves are calculated???


----------



## MS+Tradesim (15 April 2008)

JTLP said:


> And again, can anybody answer how often reserves are calculated???




Thai govt. states reserves have to be calculated and certified annually. What didn't seem clear to me from POE's ann was if their calculation was gross for the JV or net for them. Hopefully, CVN will be clearer.


----------



## Justthinkin (15 April 2008)

You really do need to have a sense of humour in this market. The trading halt was requested by CVN coy secretary pending release of a reserves upgrade announcement 'later this morning'. By my clocks I think even in Perth we have slipped right on by 'this morning' and the suspense builds...


----------



## JTLP (15 April 2008)

MS+Tradesim said:


> Thai govt. states reserves have to be calculated and certified annually. What didn't seem clear to me from POE's ann was if their calculation was gross for the JV or net for them. Hopefully, CVN will be clearer.




MS+Tradesim; i think you will find that the ANN for POE was net to them. If  you read it it says "Net" (I have formatted it below to show you)

Pan Orient Net
Marketable Reserves                                                        (mbbl)
Proved Thailand                                                               3,849
Probable Thailand                                                             13,157
Possible Thailand                                                               51,550 

Cheers! 

JTLP


----------



## Jarc (16 April 2008)

Pan Orient (their JV partner) up about 8% so far today on the TSX.  Bodes well for the reopening.

http://finance.yahoo.com/q?s=POE.V


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## Aargh! (16 April 2008)

Announcement finally out. 300% upgrade to reserves. With a tidy 11.3 million barrels *NET* to Carnavon


----------



## grace (16 April 2008)

With oil hitting a new peak overnight over $114, should call for a nice day today for Carnarvon!  Ultra glad I picked this over AED!


----------



## debaron (16 April 2008)

When is CVN going to commence trading? I always assumed that once an ann comes out it automatically means commence trading. Obviously it's not the case here?


----------



## JTLP (16 April 2008)

debaron said:


> When is CVN going to commence trading? I always assumed that once an ann comes out it automatically means commence trading. Obviously it's not the case here?




When the rest of the market opens...10am 

I can't wait to see Hartley's new report for a target price.

There old target of 101 cents was based on oil reserves of:

1P = 0.34
2P = 2.83
3P = 30.4

New oil reserves are:
1P = 2.587
2P = 11.377
3P = 45.694

Could we assume a 300% increase on the target price...with rising oil :

No seriously, what could one realistically expect...interesting...


----------



## debaron (16 April 2008)

ahh.. yes. Sorry qld-er here. Forgot that you no longer have daylight savings down there. My bad.. :


----------



## adobee (16 April 2008)

I am surprised that with such promising news there are still so many sellers in the 50c range.. ??? Can every stop selling and start buying.. I would like to see the price pushed much higher now !!!!!  this has to be the best announcement on any of my stocks in the past six months and there is very little effect so far !


----------



## skunkmonkey (16 April 2008)

It's a great announcement.  But I'm also disappointed in the share price reaction.  What will it take now to drive this back over 65 cents?


----------



## Jarc (16 April 2008)

Hopefully todays rise would have shaken out all the people who needed the cash - so if there's more good news, there might be less resistance.

More drilling news can't be far away, and the holes being drilled are close to existing producers, so I am expecting good success.

Quarterly production and cashflow are also due by the end of April - again these should show healthy numbers - based on their BOPD statements from Jan/Feb

Does anyone think that CVN will start to pay dividends shortly? - What are they going to do with their cashflow above the cost of exploration?


----------



## JTLP (16 April 2008)

Jarc said:


> Hopefully todays rise would have shaken out all the people who needed the cash - so if there's more good news, there might be less resistance.
> 
> More drilling news can't be far away, and the holes being drilled are close to existing producers, so I am expecting good success.
> 
> ...




LOL i really can't see CVN paying dividends for a few years.

They may be debt free, but they pump that money straight back into exploration and development (which I prefer). They are growing in size, purchasing more blocks and building up a bigger base for themselves...to become "a mid-tier oil and gas producer".

Maybe in 5 years you might get lucky


----------



## adobee (17 April 2008)

pumping it back it and growing is the way to go ! however announcing a dividend might get some market attention for the company that it previously wouldnt have got ..


----------



## kransky (18 April 2008)

its been a LONG time since they announced a good drill hole result... and SP has fallen accordingly

some big bopd results and a 3rd drill rig introduced and we should return to previous sp levels in the 70s and maybe the 80s

fingers crossed


----------



## derbon99 (21 April 2008)

News from the JV partner... 

Apr 21, 2008 06:22 ETPan Orient Energy Corp.: Thailand Drilling Update
CALGARY, ALBERTA--(Marketwire - April 21, 2008) - Pan Orient Energy Corp. (TSX VENTUREOE) - 

NOT FOR DISSEMINATION TO U.S. NEWSWIRE SERVICES OR FOR DISSEMINATION IN THE UNITED STATES.

POE-9A Appraisal Well (60% WI & Operator)

POE-9A vertical appraisal well, located approximately 130 meters south of the NSE discovery well POE-9, was logged after reaching an intermediate casing depth of 1,134 meters. Very severe lost circulation within the main volcanic interval was encountered at 849 and 854 meters with loss rates of 264-280 bbls per hour and 200+ bbls per hour through the remainder of the 65 meter thick interval. A very intensely fractured zone, or cavern, was encountered between 871-881 meters with penetration rates greater than 200 meters per hour.

After setting intermediate casing, drilling continued to a total depth of 1,171 meters. Drilling fluid losses of approximately 90 bbls per hour were encountered at 1,158 meters within a previously untested, new volcanic objective the top of which was penetrated at 1,143 meters. Oil shows and elevated mud gas readings, in combination with the losses noted above, resulted in the decision to terminate drilling and prepare to open hole test this new volcanic zone. Free oil was observed over the shale shakers at surface while circulating the well with the drill bit located near the top of the new volcanic zone. Testing of the deep volcanic objective is anticipated to be completed within 7 to 10 days.

L44H-D2 Appraisal Well (60% WI & Operator)

L44H-D2 deviated appraisal well is currently drilling ahead at a depth of 1,456 meters true vertical depth ("TVD") towards a total depth of approximately 1,800 meters TVD after logging and setting intermediate casing at 1,043 meters TVD, just below the base of an unexpectedly thick (180 meters) main volcanic zone. Very severe lost circulation was encountered in the main volcanic and FMI well bore image logs indicated extensive fracturing in the upper 120 meters of the 180 meter thick volcanic interval. Good oil shows and free oil at surface were observed while drilling this zone.

Two deeper, never before tested volcanic intervals have been encountered at 1,072 and 1,410 meters TVD with thicknesses of 20 and 28 meters respectively and exhibiting oil shows. Drilling is anticipated to encounter a number of additional volcanic targets between the current depth and the planned total depth of 1,800 meters that will be reached at a subsurface location approximately 640 meters northwest of the L44-H producing well. Drilling is anticipated to be completed in approximately 10 days.

NS3-D1 Side Track Appraisal Well (60% WI & Operator)

Upon completion of the POE-9A appraisal well, drilling will commence on the NS3-D1 high angle deviated/horizontal side track. NS3-D1 ST will deviate horizontally north of the original NS3-D1 well bore that penetrated the main volcanic reservoir at the down dip, southernmost extent of the NSE South fault compartment. As part of this operation, the original NS3-D1 well bore will be abandoned and replaced by this new, horizontal side track.

Pan Orient is a Calgary, Alberta based oil and gas exploration and production company with operations currently located onshore Thailand and in Western Canada.

This news release contains forward-looking information. Forward-looking information is generally identifiable by the terminology used, such as "expect", "believe", "estimate", "should", "anticipate" and "potential" or other similar wording. Forward-looking information in this news release includes, but is not limited to, references to: well drilling programs and drilling plans, estimates of reserves and potentially recoverable resources, and information on future production and project start-ups. By their very nature, the forward-looking statements contained in this news release require Pan Orient and its management to make assumptions that may not materialize or that may not be accurate. The forward-looking information contained in this news release is subject to known and unknown risks and uncertainties and other factors, which could cause actual results, expectations, achievements or performance to differ materially, including without limitation: imprecision of reserve estimates and estimates of recoverable quantities of oil, changes in project schedules, operating and reservoir performance, the effects of weather and climate change, the results of exploration and development drilling and related activities, demand for oil and gas, commercial negotiations, other technical and economic factors or revisions and other factors, many of which are beyond the control of Pan Orient. Although Pan Orient believes that the expectations reflected in its forward-looking statements are reasonable, it can give no assurances that the expectations of any forward-looking statements will prove to be correct.

45,247,442 common shares issued


The TSX Venture Exchange has neither approved nor disapproved the contents of this press release. The TSX Venture Exchange has not reviewed and does not accept responsibility for the adequacy or accuracy of this release.


----------



## jonojpsg (21 April 2008)

grace said:


> With oil hitting a new peak overnight over $114, should call for a nice day today for Carnarvon!  Ultra glad I picked this over AED!




Interesting that you still think that Grace. Although there is a little uncertainty with the approval of the Sino buyout of 60% of the Puffin field, the numbers as they are now would support AED over CVN.

AEDs reserves of the order of 40m barrels, producing say 8000bopd of which 40% will be AEDs gives 3200bopd.  Current MC is AED $350m and CVN is $370m while AED will have about that in cash after deal goes through and they pay off debt.  I would say this places AED in number 1 spot 

Give it 6 months and we'll see


----------



## JTLP (21 April 2008)

CVN are actually pumping about the same, if not more, BOPD.

They also have zero debt, unlike your good friend AED.

I admit that AED is starting to look the goods now, but I bet it didnt feel so good for holders when it dropped from $11 or whatever. Plus their is one thing that holders want, a definitive answer on the Sinopec buyout...what happens if they decided to drop the deal? Or is it confirmed?


----------



## 1234 (22 April 2008)

Woot, oil everywhere - test results due in 7!!!


Pan Orient Energy Corp.: Thailand Drilling Update

CALGARY, ALBERTA--(Marketwire - April 21, 2008) - Pan Orient Energy Corp. (TSX VENTUREOE) -

NOT FOR DISSEMINATION TO U.S. NEWSWIRE SERVICES OR FOR DISSEMINATION IN THE UNITED STATES.

POE-9A Appraisal Well (60% WI & Operator)

POE-9A vertical appraisal well, located approximately 130 meters south of the NSE discovery well POE-9, was logged after reaching an intermediate casing depth of 1,134 meters. Very severe lost circulation within the main volcanic interval was encountered at 849 and 854 meters with loss rates of 264-280 bbls per hour and 200+ bbls per hour through the remainder of the 65 meter thick interval. A very intensely fractured zone, or cavern, was encountered between 871-881 meters with penetration rates greater than 200 meters per hour.

After setting intermediate casing, drilling continued to a total depth of 1,171 meters. Drilling fluid losses of approximately 90 bbls per hour were encountered at 1,158 meters within a previously untested, new volcanic objective the top of which was penetrated at 1,143 meters. Oil shows and elevated mud gas readings, in combination with the losses noted above, resulted in the decision to terminate drilling and prepare to open hole test this new volcanic zone. Free oil was observed over the shale shakers at surface while circulating the well with the drill bit located near the top of the new volcanic zone. Testing of the deep volcanic objective is anticipated to be completed within 7 to 10 days.

L44H-D2 Appraisal Well (60% WI & Operator)

L44H-D2 deviated appraisal well is currently drilling ahead at a depth of 1,456 meters true vertical depth ("TVD") towards a total depth of approximately 1,800 meters TVD after logging and setting intermediate casing at 1,043 meters TVD, just below the base of an unexpectedly thick (180 meters) main volcanic zone. Very severe lost circulation was encountered in the main volcanic and FMI well bore image logs indicated extensive fracturing in the upper 120 meters of the 180 meter thick volcanic interval. Good oil shows and free oil at surface were observed while drilling this zone.

Two deeper, never before tested volcanic intervals have been encountered at 1,072 and 1,410 meters TVD with thicknesses of 20 and 28 meters respectively and exhibiting oil shows. Drilling is anticipated to encounter a number of additional volcanic targets between the current depth and the planned total depth of 1,800 meters that will be reached at a subsurface location approximately 640 meters northwest of the L44-H producing well. Drilling is anticipated to be completed in approximately 10 days.

NS3-D1 Side Track Appraisal Well (60% WI & Operator)

Upon completion of the POE-9A appraisal well, drilling will commence on the NS3-D1 high angle deviated/horizontal side track. NS3-D1 ST will deviate horizontally north of the original NS3-D1 well bore that penetrated the main volcanic reservoir at the down dip, southernmost extent of the NSE South fault compartment. As part of this operation, the original NS3-D1 well bore will be abandoned and replaced by this new, horizontal side track.

Pan Orient is a Calgary, Alberta based oil and gas exploration and production company with operations currently located onshore Thailand and in Western Canada.

This news release contains forward-looking information. Forward-looking information is generally identifiable by the terminology used, such as "expect", "believe", "estimate", "should", "anticipate" and "potential" or other similar wording. Forward-looking information in this news release includes, but is not limited to, references to: well drilling programs and drilling plans, estimates of reserves and potentially recoverable resources, and information on future production and project start-ups. By their very nature, the forward-looking statements contained in this news release require Pan Orient and its management to make assumptions that may not materialize or that may not be accurate. The forward-looking information contained in this news release is subject to known and unknown risks and uncertainties and other factors, which could cause actual results, expectations, achievements or performance to differ materially, including without limitation: imprecision of reserve estimates and estimates of recoverable quantities of oil, changes in project schedules, operating and reservoir performance, the effects of weather and climate change, the results of exploration and development drilling and related activities, demand for oil and gas, commercial negotiations, other technical and economic factors or revisions and other factors, many of which are beyond the control of Pan Orient. Although Pan Orient believes that the expectations reflected in its forward-looking statements are reasonable, it can give no assurances that the expectations of any forward-looking statements will prove to be correct.


----------



## Dukey (22 April 2008)

Mmm - slightly disappointed with CVN today. 
- JV partner POE was up 5% (64c) overnight in Canada on the news announced in 1234's prior post.   Thought CVN  might have jumped today ...  and maybe been nudging 60c  - but no go thus far.
Quite a few sellers lined up around 56/57c....   

... and the parties just beginning.....  why sell...  why???

Any ideas folks - why the news of good oil shows in two wells, is worth so much more in Canadee-i-o  than it is here??

... well testing to come soon of course... never count your chickens and all that..


----------



## kransky (23 April 2008)

looks very positive to me. only 7 or so days to wait for the next set of flow results.

CVN has been very quiet in the last 3 months as drilling stopped due to maintenance and they had a duster... and it has seen the price plummet from 77c to 43c

back on an uptrend now as the 2 rigs are back on full steam ahead and possibly a 3rd starting in Q3. JV production is over 10000bopd and the oil price going crazy.. looks like upward pressure on CVN's sp.


----------



## Rob 17 (23 April 2008)

Looks like some funds with large parcels are getting out ahead of drill results. 

Share price should find support at .50cents IMO

DYOR


----------



## adobee (24 April 2008)

Rob 17 said:


> Looks like some funds with large parcels are getting out ahead of drill results.
> 
> Share price should find support at .50cents IMO
> 
> DYOR




How do you come to this conclusion there are no notices of changes in substanial share holdings and the price has closed up ?


----------



## Garpal Gumnut (26 April 2008)

kransky said:


> looks very positive to me. only 7 or so days to wait for the next set of flow results.
> 
> CVN has been very quiet in the last 3 months as drilling stopped due to maintenance and they had a duster... and it has seen the price plummet from 77c to 43c
> 
> back on an uptrend now as the 2 rigs are back on full steam ahead and possibly a 3rd starting in Q3. JV production is over 10000bopd and the oil price going crazy.. looks like upward pressure on CVN's sp.




I enclose an interesting chart, a weekly from the beginning of last year to the present.

Its particularly relevant for those who were upset when I pointed out that the charts suggested cvn was topping at above 70c about Dec 07. 

Since then it has retraced 61% in a wave 2  and it now appears to be starting a wave 3 of an Elliot Wave pattern. This wave is usually longer than wave 1 .

So the funnymentalists may be correct as if it is a wave 3 then $1.30 is not out of the question. Oh that Rene Rivkin were alive. Now we only have Hartley, Fat Profits and Intelligent Inv to sell pamphlets to the funnymentalists, I believe some of them agree with a wave 3, from their tea cups!! Oh and Opes is gone so it will be back to the instos and superfunds to kick this one along.

gg


----------



## JTLP (27 April 2008)

GG i actually value your T/A. Unfortunately when you called the top around 70 cents i didn't sell out!

If your prediction of around the $1.30 mark came to fruition, then i would be a very happy camper. It will be an interesting time with the current exploration and appraisal wells being drilled. If CVN has some good success and flows, it should push it up nicely. Breaking its old high may take some big news though?

I really wish CVN would some sort sort of SP consolidation or a buy back. Too many on issue for my liking...


----------



## Dukey (27 April 2008)

Garpal Gumnut said:


> I enclose an interesting chart, a weekly from the beginning of last year to the present.
> 
> Its particularly relevant for those who were upset when I pointed out that the charts suggested cvn was topping at above 70c about Dec 07.
> 
> ...




Sounds good to me!

- speaking of Fat Profits  (... wouldn't it be cooler if they called themselves "Phat Prophets"??)... anyway, their free e-mail/advertisement last week referred to another 'mystery' company which was very obviously CVN - raving about the potential upside etc.  - certainly won't hurt CVN holders/believers to have their recommendation floating around the traps.   The e-mail before that they spoke of a 'mystery coal company' (Cockatoo Coal) and it has jumped substantially since - so i'll be interested to see how CVN goes this week....  

- cheers - Dukey

(holding cvn)


----------



## adobee (28 April 2008)

Dukey said:


> Sounds good to me!
> 
> - speaking of Fat Profits  (... wouldn't it be cooler if they called themselves "Phat Prophets"??)... anyway, their free e-mail/advertisement last week referred to another 'mystery' company which was very obviously CVN - raving about the potential upside etc.  - certainly won't hurt CVN holders/believers to have their recommendation floating around the traps.   The e-mail before that they spoke of a 'mystery coal company' (Cockatoo Coal) and it has jumped substantially since - so i'll be interested to see how CVN goes this week....
> 
> ...




Seems to have had a very good affect looks like closing up 10% at 60c
I hope that not all their clients have read the email and more read tonight and buy tomorrow !


----------



## JTLP (28 April 2008)

A nice day and finish for CVN, but the pessimist in me suggests people are buying on rumour etc...although lines were taken out fairly quickly...maybe a new major holder?

Ah well app. quarterly on April 30 as well as drill updates dated 22nd April were expected to take 7 - 10 days to reach TD.

GG i :heart: your target lol


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## 1234 (28 April 2008)

Garpal Gumnut said:


> I enclose an interesting chart, a weekly from the beginning of last year to the present.
> 
> Its particularly relevant for those who were upset when I pointed out that the charts suggested cvn was topping at above 70c about Dec 07.
> 
> ...





GG, interesting you taking such a bullish view on CVN? Very encouraging..

Seems a bit more market exposure since the reserves update and potential upside. Risk of the Volcanics watering out maybe in the back of the minds of the doubters??

Hope the masses getting onboard today don't just jump ship tomorrow to send this back to the mid 50's. We don't need that! 

Needs a good solid few days of trading in the 60's to help spark some long term confidence..

Otherwise, a very predictable day.


----------



## 77TRADER77 (28 April 2008)

I just purchased some CVN for my Portfolio. Im in for the longer haul on this.
What dissapointed me today is the huge selloff on ASX of commodities and Banks shareprices being artificially pumped up drawing from commodities such as CVN BHP and RIO and OXR who are bringing in all the 'REAL' moolah into our wonderful country australia. Banks produce nothing and will be found out when US profit reporting commences in about 6-8 months. Its not over yet on GOLD in my humble opinion.


----------



## eddyeagle (29 April 2008)

77TRADER77 said:


> I just purchased some CVN for my Portfolio. Im in for the longer haul on this.
> What dissapointed me today is the huge selloff on ASX of commodities and Banks shareprices being artificially pumped up drawing from commodities such as CVN BHP and RIO and OXR who are bringing in all the 'REAL' moolah into our wonderful country australia. Banks produce nothing and will be found out when US profit reporting commences in about 6-8 months. Its not over yet on GOLD in my humble opinion.





I hear you 77trader77! Australians have a love affair with the banks bc many people have made large fortunes over the last few decades in bank stocks and continue to believe they will do so in the future! If you are a longer haul investor use days like today to add to your resources positions i reckon...


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## Rob 17 (29 April 2008)

CVN's joint venture partner POE is down 11% today on high volume.

Interesting movement as results are due soon. 

Anyone know why this may be?

Cheers


----------



## Dukey (29 April 2008)

Rob 17 said:


> CVN's joint venture partner POE is down 11% today on high volume.
> 
> Interesting movement as results are due soon.
> 
> ...




I noticed that drop for POE - but not sure why either...

CVN have an investor presentation out which clearly presents their situation...  just had a quick look and all looks great to me!!

Cash in hand - $23M
Operating costs around $7.70 US per barrel.
Plenty of exploration upside to come with existing and new leases.

http://www.carnarvonpetroleum.com/docs/CVN Investor Presentation - April 08.pdf


----------



## allaboutprofits (29 April 2008)

It is indeed a pleasant portfolio to have CVN.

What I enjoyed today was seeing an insto purchasing 1,000,000 shares at 3:20 
PM, there appears to be quite an upside with regards to CVN and I'm enjoying 
the ride.

I asked a person relating to the drop in value with POE and was informed that
canada is suffering from floods and also has end of year tax period. This could 
be the reason why they suffered slightly last night...

I hold substantial CVN shares...

Regards...


----------



## wipz (30 April 2008)

Hartleys have released a new brokers report via the CVN webby.
They value CVN at 115cps and recommend as a BUY.
Great news for holders.


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## adobee (30 April 2008)

All we need is for Merril Lynch to put as a buy also and it should go off the hook like AGO (Hartleys covers this too)!


----------



## Real1ty (2 May 2008)

I have had my eye on this stock for awhile but was always put off by the lower price they receive for their oil.

I ended up getting in at .54 last week, so am happy with my decision atm.

There has been a fair bit of strength in the sp and some largish X trades going through but one thing i have noticed is their is usually a lot of larger trades going through right on the close.


----------



## Garpal Gumnut (2 May 2008)

Garpal Gumnut said:


> I enclose an interesting chart, a weekly from the beginning of last year to the present.
> 
> Its particularly relevant for those who were upset when I pointed out that the charts suggested cvn was topping at above 70c about Dec 07.
> 
> ...




I must disagree with Hartley. Funnymentalists have so many figures to multiply and divide, big words like porous to deal with that they sometimes press the button on their calculators rather than that on their thesaurus.

According to the EW count which so far seems to be fulfilling , if this stock goes above .80 it will keep on going above  1.30 minimum. 

I get lost in oil reports and I fear they have too. 1.10 or 1.15 seems conservative for a wave 3. Then again we could both be wrong !!

I enclose a chart up to date yesterday.

gg

A weekly

gg


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## Garpal Gumnut (5 May 2008)

Real1ty said:


> I have had my eye on this stock for awhile but was always put off by the lower price they receive for their oil.
> 
> I ended up getting in at .54 last week, so am happy with my decision atm.
> 
> There has been a fair bit of strength in the sp and some largish X trades going through but one thing i have noticed is their is usually a lot of larger trades going through right on the close.




Sorry for going on about CVN, my last chart wasn't as clear as I would have liked. Enclosed is an up to date weekly showing it continuing to climb. 

I also wanted to see what these new thumbnails look like.

I do hope Reality that you kept your bottle and didn't get out of cvn as its still in an uptrend. 

gg


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## Real1ty (6 May 2008)

Garpal Gumnut said:


> Sorry for going on about CVN, my last chart wasn't as clear as I would have liked. Enclosed is an up to date weekly showing it continuing to climb.
> 
> I also wanted to see what these new thumbnails look like.
> 
> ...




Thanks for the chart GG.

I'm still in and think i will be for awhile yet.

I was always of the opinion that CVN was undervalued and it would appear that others are starting to believe this also.

If the POO stays around current levels and with the amount of targets CVN has then there is a lot further to run on this one imo.

cheers


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## 1234 (6 May 2008)

GG, nice work.

I was dubious as to how CVN would react to this latest re - rating but it seems the market has taken a hold of CVN ove the past week or so.

73c this morning, no sign of slowing just yet.. 

Interesting times..


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## treefrog (6 May 2008)

Garpal Gumnut said:


> Sorry for going on about CVN, my last chart wasn't as clear as I would have liked. Enclosed is an up to date weekly showing it continuing to climb.
> 
> I also wanted to see what these new thumbnails look like.
> 
> ...




don't do elliot thingies but looking at a straight fib extension from the ABC of 10-77-36 we get first target of 77 (duh obvious); second of 103 and the third of 144


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## eddyeagle (6 May 2008)

Nice little rally at the moment for CVN... 
I would be interested in hearing people's thoughts on setting a stop loss for this one. I want to be more active in terms of locking-in profits this year and I was thinking of setting a stop loss of 15% below however high it runs, therefore not limiting my upside. Thoughts anyone?


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## 1234 (7 May 2008)

Eddy, 

Too may gaps up here to gauge properly and not enough recent support for long term confidence.. (Based on sp history) *Careful not to stop yourself out of a nice run*...... Check the history and check the retrace even on a good ann..

BUT trading has taken a different path of late, I doubt low 50's will be tested again without major market influence. Seems sell orders are being taken out without resistance, this is a new trend for CVN.. Previously being held at the mercy of bots and traders... 

With current well success pinned at 80% (projected) 15% will see a fair amount of profit locked in - next year..

Keep in mind I intend holding for the next 12 - 18 months irrespective of anns and sp movement. 

Good luck, go the Fundy stocks (loving the T/A) !!


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## Robbo (7 May 2008)

Was just about to go to bed, 

http://www.marketwirecanada.com/mw/rel_ca.jsp?id=852771&k=pan orient

POE-9A Appraisal Well (60% WI & Operator)

The POE-9A vertical appraisal well, located approximately 130 meters south of the NSE discovery well POE-9 is producing, on pump, from the main volcanic zone at rates of approximately 682 bopd, with a 6.5% BS&W, as the well continues to clean up. Based on the fluid levels recorded in the well bore, the current rate is believed to be restricted by the slim hole casing (4.5") design of the well. An earlier test of a deeper volcanic zone failed to produce hydrocarbons at commercial rates.

L44H-D2 Appraisal Well (60% WI & Operator)

The L44H-D2 deviated appraisal well is currently logging after reaching a total depth of 2,357 meters measured depth ("MD"), 2,103 meters true vertical depth ("TVD").

In addition to the main volcanic zone, five deeper, never before tested volcanic intervals have been encountered at 1,079, 1,154, 1,483, 1,698 and 1,824 meters MD with measured thicknesses of 21, 6, 27, 62 and 26 meters respectively. Oil shows were observed while drilling at depths of 1,080-1,100m, 1,505-1,510m and 1,845-1,850m. Upon the completion of logging, it is anticipated testing will be conducted on up to four zones and take approximately 21 days to completion, at which time results will be announced. Unlike POE-9A, which is in the southern fault compartment of NSE and was drilled to only one deeper volcanic horizon, L44H-D2 is in the central fault compartment of NSE and is planned to test multiple deeper volcanic zones.

NS3-D1 Side Track Appraisal Well (60% WI & Operator)

The NS3-D1 high angle deviated/horizontal side track is currently drilling ahead at a measured depth of 928 meters (848 meters TVD) within a volcanic tuff above the main volcanic target zone. Lost circulation of approximately 200bbls/hr has been encountered in the volcanic tuffs that sit immediately above the main volcanic target zone.

NS3-D1 ST will deviate north of the original NS3-D1 well bore and is projected to drill an approximately 200 meter horizontal section of the main target volcanic. As part of this operation, the original NS3-D1 well bore has been abandoned and will be replaced by this new, horizontal side track.

Drilling is anticipated to be completed in approximately 12 days.

NS8-D1 Side Track Appraisal Well (60% WI & Operator)

Upon the completion of L44H-D2, the Aztec rig #14 will move to the NS8-D1 well location where, in exactly the same fashion as NS3-D1, a horizontal side track will be drilled utilizing the existing well bore.

Operations Update

Production is approximately 7,200 bopd (gross) with the NS3-D1 and NS8-D1 wells shut-in while horizontal side track operations are either underway, or about to be underway.

Environmental approval has now been received for 32 drilling locations at Na Sanun East and Wichian Buri. Construction is currently underway on location NSE9-G, located at the crest of the NSE central fault compartment where up to three horizontal wells are anticipated to be drilled from the same surface location, commencing in approximately 5 weeks. With the approval of the NSE development location in hand, production is anticipated to ramp up significantly over the coming three to six months.


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## panikhide (7 May 2008)

There was a huge spike in volume with this just before 11am and the price dropped to $0.59. What was that about?


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## Dukey (7 May 2008)

Not a great reaction to the drilling news which seemed pretty good to me... I mean - another well flowing at over 600bpd - increases the production by something like 10%.   Maybe traders were hoping for more from the deeper sections of the hole??  Other holes still sound promising. Maybe someone more adept at interpreting these announcements could have a go at deciphering?!

Doesn't bother me - I'll be in CVN for a good while yet  - maybe years.

As for the big dip in price - hard to say but maybe some stops got triggered for short term traders.
she's back up to 66.5 now - so thats their loss!!!
... all IMHO.

(holding CVN)


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## adobee (7 May 2008)

I think the problem here is to many traders when ever new highs are reached people want to lock in profits and do.. there after the price falls back again.. its not until an institution gets on board that we really get great movement as they tend to buy and hold a bit longer..


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## MangaNOID (7 May 2008)

yes this really is a good announcement if you read the history of cvn in the NSE field. POE9A at 600 bopd is MORE than the poe 9 well last year. 

L44H-D2 (about to test soon) will be VERY interesting with the deeper volcanics similar to POE9A as the last L44h-D1 was record production! 

very happy investor


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## INORE (7 May 2008)

MangaNOID said:


> yes this really is a good announcement if you read the history of cvn in the NSE field. POE9A at 600 bopd is MORE than the poe 9 well last year.
> 
> L44H-D2 (about to test soon) will be VERY interesting with the deeper volcanics similar to POE9A as the last L44h-D1 was record production!
> 
> very happy investor




WELL HARTLEYS AGREE WITH YOU IN THEIR LATEST ANALYSIS...the result of POE9A is a GOOD result but not a GREAT result....


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## Garpal Gumnut (7 May 2008)

panikhide said:


> There was a huge spike in volume with this just before 11am and the price dropped to $0.59. What was that about?




A very good question.

Enclosed is a daily chart, candlesticks.

No real pattern indicating future movement up or down, though I'm no expert on the Japanese charting. It closed higher than it opened but did fall a considerable distance during the day.

Another "sophisticated investor" selling to pay off his boat, bank, broker, protection, or ex girlfriend ?????

The line is a 30 day moving average, may be a suitable stop loss for the short term traders.

If I were a big fund though I'd be accumulating now as others have suggested.

gg


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## roland (8 May 2008)

Oil up again overnight boys. Pre open market depth looks to be in our favour 

I got on board with a small parcel yesterday on the dip, looking forward to the ride.


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## doogie_goes_off (8 May 2008)

Serious buyers filling the gaps below 65c and a weak opening really, makes me want to sue commsec who couldn't confirm my cash position yesterday so I missed the dip... poop


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## Go Nuke (8 May 2008)

Garpal Gumnut said:


> A very good question.
> 
> Enclosed is a daily chart, candlesticks.
> 
> ...




Well im no expert either though I do find candlestick charting very interesting

The doji star signaled a top and if Wed trading had of opened below the real body of Tuesdays and closed _down_ then we would have had a "Evening Star" pattern. Not only that but *if* that had happend Wednesdays trading day would also have formed a "Hangman"

All 3 of these signals would be bearish. It might have only lasted a day or 2 but bearish non the less.

Anyway, as Wed finished UP, i would have said that the doji still confirmed a top.
If today finished at 70c then I think this is pretty much a "Harami cross" pattern (though its more of one after a long white candle). This being at the top of a run could also spell a reversal.
But like I said. it may only last a day or two..who knows.
On a positive note, at least there are alot more buyers to sellers

ps the pic is probably crap. I cant seem to save as a JPEG under 170.9. Pic size is 1195X 869?


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## adobee (12 May 2008)

I dont know about the graphs but this is the best mount up of buyers at 70c+ i have seen for a long time with cvn. ..

I was thinking about freeing up some cash from my cvn for some other buys but now think I will wait a bit longer !


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## kenny (12 May 2008)

Glad to see CVN steady ascension over recent weeks. The downspike a few days ago to 59c looks more like a Stop loss raid now to me in hindsight.

It would be nice to see support at close at 72c+.

Cheers,

Kenny


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## Go Nuke (12 May 2008)

Wow it seems it was mearly a breather that was taken around may 5th/6th.

As I also stated though there was heaps of volume on the buy side which kept its bullish out look.

Im sure the price of oil is helping this stock along.

Looks like the highest close today since August 23rd 1995 where it closed at 88.9c

Great stock and I wish i had been along for the ride sooner when i first saw someone pick CVN for the ASF stock tipping comp Aug last year


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## Kowabunga (12 May 2008)

Go Nuke said:


> Wow it seems it was mearly a breather that was taken around may 5th/6th.
> 
> As I also stated though there was heaps of volume on the buy side which kept its bullish out look.
> 
> ...




should have used your....................................................................... sharingan


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## dogwithflees1983 (13 May 2008)

CVN up again today to 76c, doing very nicely. Not showing any sign of retrace with buyers stacking up (4.3m units) compared to sellers (2.2m units)....


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## quarky (14 May 2008)

dogwithflees1983 said:


> CVN up again today to 76c, doing very nicely. Not showing any sign of retrace with buyers stacking up (4.3m units) compared to sellers (2.2m units)....




uh huh.
slowly, but surely, it's creeping up.
it's been closing each day at a higher price...i thought i even saw it at 0.795 in early trading...and had to rub my eyes. P
for a company operating with no debts, it'll probably settle at $0.80 (just my baseless speculation) and i'll be super happy with a $0.90 price high...in which case i might offload just to offset my losses in SIP (Sigma Pharmaceuticals), CTO (some gold company) and FNT (Frontier Resources).


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## JTLP (15 May 2008)

CVN has become very interesting of late.

There are some big things to note, especially over the last few months.

Macquarie sold out of their position, JP Morgan Nominees made a massive leap. Perhaps JP are mopping up the shares and helping to build a tighter registry? It was Ted's goal to do this. 

Plus, after the initial announcement a week ago, the shares quickly fell to 59 cents, only to be snapped up again. Surely this can not be traders?

- Waiting on successful bid with Pearl Energy for blocks L52/20 and L53/20 (i say successful because they were the only ones to bid lol )

- Production to increase after routine maintanence of equipment

- Lots of well results 

I am hoping we get an update about plans for the 2H '08 and beyond. I want to see some drilling here, in the Carnarvon Basin, where the dream all began :


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## eddyeagle (16 May 2008)

Closed at 80 cents today - awesome!
Has had an amazing run since mid March when it was trading in the mid 40s!
Congrats to all those who showed faith!
Where to from here I wonder?


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## Garpal Gumnut (16 May 2008)

eddyeagle said:


> Closed at 80 cents today - awesome!
> Has had an amazing run since mid March when it was trading in the mid 40s!
> Congrats to all those who showed faith!
> Where to from here I wonder?




It would be nice to know the future. There is an order in life and should CVN continue its amazing run then as I have indicated in the 2 charts below , I do not feel that a high of between 1.38 and 1.44 is impossible on a wave 3 high.

Some CVN disciples were chiding me when I picked the top of wave 1, but you can see that on Chart 2 this was not a wild guess as it came at the end of a fibonnaci time zone indicated by the vertical lines on Chart 2.

The horizontal retracement lines on Chart 1 also picked the 61% retracement of Wave 2 from the Wave 1 highs. 

Isn't life and charting interesting.

Once you have digested these charts I will leave you be to continue talking about things oily that entail using big words such as arabs, barrel and layers. 

I've never been able to make head nor tail of oil reports, a bit like stock tip sheets, all greek.

I will repost a further chart when Hardlys and Phat Profits and the brokers have ramped it up to my price target, which should be about the end of August.

These are weekly charts, the best way I have found to trade these markets as one never knows whether ones Directors are billionaires or paupered by Security lending from day to day. 

gg


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## JTLP (16 May 2008)

GG i like your charts. Big props and if it falls that way it will be some sweet cash money chemistry for my holiday.

Unfortunately, CVN is quite a loose share (to put it politely) and one sniff of "plugged & abandoned" or "Oil less than 1000 bopd" and she is going down faster then the Hindenburg.

Still...Viva La Charts!


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## JTLP (19 May 2008)

Somebody is pretty keen to dump CVN. Small trades, most are 1,000 each. Sometimes 3,000, sometimes 4,000, sometimes 10,000. Really draining.

Bring on some results (some due tonight from memory)


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## Dukey (23 May 2008)

Knocking on or around 80c again today... my depth shows about 1.2M shares avail at 80c but after that it thins out pretty quickly.... so if those 1.2M get taken out, we could be on our way.... fingers crossed

go well CVN holders - dukey


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## MangaNOID (23 May 2008)

i think the only thing that will, or might, push this beyond 80c in the near future is the results of the currently being tested deep volcanic well.

one deeper volcanics have proved itself (poe9a) so if a second comes up trumps then that would sure help confirm one hell of alot more oil is down there to be added to the reserves!!


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## Dukey (23 May 2008)

MangaNOID said:


> i think the only thing that will, or might, push this beyond 80c in the near future is the results of the currently being tested deep volcanic well.
> 
> one deeper volcanics have proved itself (poe9a) so if a second comes up trumps then that would sure help confirm one hell of alot more oil is down there to be added to the reserves!!




That will certainly help , but there are other positive factors that bode well:
# broker recommendations - Hartleys and Fat profits still spruiking... are there others out there?
# Instos - someone mentioned JPMorgan below.
# and of course the all important POO!!!!!  what is it now $130??

- minor ups n downs aside I think CVN is on the high road.

-my


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## ktrianta (23 May 2008)

Garpal Gumnut said:


> It would be nice to know the future. There is an order in life and should CVN continue its amazing run then as I have indicated in the 2 charts below , I do not feel that a high of between 1.38 and 1.44 is impossible on a wave 3 high.
> 
> Some CVN disciples were chiding me when I picked the top of wave 1, but you can see that on Chart 2 this was not a wild guess as it came at the end of a fibonnaci time zone indicated by the vertical lines on Chart 2.
> 
> ...




GG.

Thanks for your great charts it is really appreciated. Will keep a close eye on what it does between now and 31 August, and if it gets to $1.38 then I will certainly be looking at booking the profit.

Wish I had of read your chart initially as I got in at .635 just before the new year and was doing well before the sub prime knocked it back below 40 cents.
Still at 79 cents now am doing well and if I double my money by August I will be happy.


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## Garpal Gumnut (24 May 2008)

ktrianta said:


> GG.
> 
> Thanks for your great charts it is really appreciated. Will keep a close eye on what it does between now and 31 August, and if it gets to $1.38 then I will certainly be looking at booking the profit.
> 
> ...




ktrianta. I agree with your sentiments.

It would be nice if CVN kept on going but please don't be over influenced by my chart. It sounds as if you did well by staying in and not panicking. 

I've been in this since it was under 5c , for years and have an attachment to it, as I feel it could be another Woodside, don't ask me why, just a hunch.

I enclose updated charts, for the weekly, these will be the last for a while, as a mate is in a bit of financial trouble in Singapore and I am popping up there to help him out, and won't be able to post my charts.

Its just an updated weekly. It seems from the last bar as if CVN is still enjoying buying support.

gg


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## ktrianta (25 May 2008)

Garpal Gumnut said:


> ktrianta. I agree with your sentiments.
> 
> It would be nice if CVN kept on going but please don't be over influenced by my chart. It sounds as if you did well by staying in and not panicking.
> 
> ...





GG,

Thanks again.

My investment philosophy is very much to pick quality with a 6 month to long term view of holding, so the fact that i got in at 63.5 cents, meant I was confident it would be much higher in 6-12 months time. Short term gyrations, I ignore but in accord with human nature, feel a lot better with CVN at 79 cents than 40 cents.

Another Woodside? WOW would love to see that!!!!


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## Hank Rollins (27 May 2008)

POE Announcement

May 27, 2008 09:00 ETPan Orient Energy Corp.: Thailand Drilling Update
CALGARY, ALBERTA--(Marketwire - May 27, 2008) - 

NOT FOR DISSEMINATION TO U.S. NEWSWIRE SERVICES OR FOR DISSEMINATION IN THE UNITED STATES.

Pan Orient Energy Corp. (TSX VENTUREOE) (45,391,442 common shares issued):

NS3-D1ST Side Track Appraisal Well (60% WI & Operator)

The NS3-D1ST high-angle deviated/horizontal side track has been tested at stabilized rates of approximately 1,650 bopd with a water cut of 0.38% over an approximately three day period. At the end of this initial test period, water cuts increased to as high as 20% before the well was choked back. Currently the well is restricted to approximately 180 bopd with a 20% water cut while determining if the water production originates from the more than 3,800 bbls of drilling water that was lost while drilling or coning up a large fracture system. A number of options will be considered to optimize production depending on the final analysis of results.

NS3-D1ST was drilled to a total measured depth (MD) of 958 meters (866 meter true vertical depth (TVD)) penetrating 62 meters measured thickness of volcanic reservoir (16 meters true vertical thickness) at which time the decision was made to terminate the drilling of the well, prior to going horizontal, due an influx of gas originating from a shallow sand and resulting in conditions that were unsafe to drill ahead when combined with the severe mud losses that were being experienced at that time in the main volcanic zone.

L44H-D2 Exploration/Appraisal Well Testing (60% WI & Operator)

The L44H-D2 deviated appraisal well, in addition to the main volcanic zone, penetrated five deeper never before tested volcanic intervals at 1,079 m, 1,154 m, 1,483 m, 1,698 m and 1,824 m measured depth (MD), with measured thicknesses of 21 m, 6 m, 27 m, 62 m and 26 m, respectively. Oil shows were observed while drilling at depths of 1,080 m to 1,100 m, 1,505 m to 1,510 m and 1,845 m to 1,850 m.

Testing has now been completed on the two structurally lowest volcanic zones with test #1 at 1,824 meters MD indicating a tight reservoir and test #2 at 1,698 meters MD resulting in a minor influx of gas.

Perforating is now underway for test #3 over the volcanic that was encountered at 1,482 meters MD. It is anticipated that the volcanic zone encountered at 1,079 meters MD (first volcanic below the proven main volcanic zone) will be evaluated next, as test #4.

Testing operations are anticipated to continue for approximately ten more days at which time results will be announced.

NS5-D1ST Horizontal Development Well (60%WI & Operator)

The NS5-D1ST horizontal development well, located south of L44-H and 200 meters north of the original NS5-D1 well, has reached a total measured depth of 1,406 meters (872 meters TVD) within the target volcanic reservoir zone. Severe mud losses and oil shows were encountered over the majority of the approximately 145 meters of horizontal section through the main volcanic reservoir.

Testing is anticipated to be completed within the next 10 to 12 days at which time results will be announced.

L33-3 Exploration Well (60% WI & Operator)

The L33-3 exploration well, located on concession L33 approximately 33 kilometers north of the Wichian Buri oilfield, is currently drilling ahead at a depth of approximately 500 meters TVD towards a planned total depth of approximately 1,200 meters TVD targeting both volcanic and sandstone reservoirs.

L33-3 is a high risk stratigraphic test well drilled on the basis of one 2D seismic line within the untested Khon Khwang graben, located 33 kilometers north of the nearest proven production at Wichian Buri. The objective of the well is to evaluate the source rock and reservoir potential within the Khon Khwang sub basin. Validation of the source rock presence and maturity would approximately double the region of hydrocarbon potential within concessions L33 and L44 and result in an extensive 2D seismic program over this large area in July 2008.

Drilling is anticipated to be completed within 10 to 12 days.

Pan Orient is a Calgary, Alberta based oil and gas exploration and production company with operations currently located onshore Thailand, Indonesia and in Western Canada.


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## JTLP (27 May 2008)

Poor old CVN will get smashed for this.

Not what traders want to hear. They want answers to all the wells, now!

Perhaps the big buyer will continue to bring the SP back up to .05 cents short, if not even, of the previous day price.

Some positive results though from that ann, and hopefully we can see a build up for 2 weeks, mainly on:

*NS5-D1ST Horizontal Development Well (60%WI & Operator)

The NS5-D1ST horizontal development well, located south of L44-H and 200 meters north of the original NS5-D1 well, has reached a total measured depth of 1,406 meters (872 meters TVD) within the target volcanic reservoir zone. Severe mud losses and oil shows were encountered over the majority of the approximately 145 meters of horizontal section through the main volcanic reservoir.

Testing is anticipated to be completed within the next 10 to 12 days at which time results will be announced.*

Sounds Juicy!

Time will tell...


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## MangaNOID (28 May 2008)

this is neither negative or positive

all of that reporting, but nothing that is finite to any of the wells mentioned! why couldnt they just wait another 10 days or so and give us final results. 

...patient...


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## JTLP (28 May 2008)

MangaNOID said:


> this is neither negative or positive
> 
> all of that reporting, but nothing that is finite to any of the wells mentioned! why couldnt they just wait another 10 days or so and give us final results.
> 
> ...patient...




Actually it is negative.

First well has lotsssssssssssssssss of water = not good

Second well was abandoned = not good

Third well (L44-DH2) is slightly more positive, but by no means astronomical. Market won't look kindly on it.

NS5-D1ST - positive but market dont care until you get BOPD

L33-3 - Neutral...market dont care.

CONCLUSION:

CVN FIND SOME OIL!

Seriously, I wish CVN would do a share consolidation or buy back. I've said it numerous times. There are just too many shares on issue, and it is quite frustrating.

Even if they reduced the shares on issue by 1/2 i'd be a happy camper.

Gotta lug myself to the next AGM and suggest this crap.


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## 1234 (28 May 2008)

Hit prediction.

Water cut will be solved by early next week, resulting in an increased bopd output from the 1650 already tested...

Water has never been a prob, I doubt it will be this time either. 

but yeah, POE getting hit..


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## Rob 17 (28 May 2008)

Hold on to your hats once the news is posted this morning.

I might jump back on board if it comes down to .65cents 

DYOR


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## chewy (28 May 2008)

I can't see why anyone would sell today. L44H-D2 still has 3 more zones (plus the main one) to test yet. And NS5-D1ST sounds like a ripper and only 10-12 days to wait for those flow tests...

Edit - not saying they wont, just that they must be daft!


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## Rob 17 (28 May 2008)

I think we will see some selling pressure because the joint venture parnter was sold off,  down 9.75%.  It hasnt had the rise that CVN has over the past month so we can see CVN in the red today.

Overall i still like the stock. Although the poor results are a let down.

DYOR


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## MangaNOID (28 May 2008)

JTLP said:


> Actually it is negative.
> 
> 
> 
> Second well was abandoned = not good




the second well you think is abandoned is actually still talking about the first well NS3-D1ST.

it says "the decision was made to terminate the drilling of the well" 

which means they stopped drilling to then do the testing which states in paragraph one  "A number of options will be considered to optimize production depending on the final analysis of results."

this to me says inconclusive at this time.

hopefully cvn will re-word their ann better.


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## Dukey (28 May 2008)

Whats the fuss about ... Oil drilling is a complex and inexact science... but I really don't see anything overly negative here!!... (apart from the over-reaction with POE in Canada.)

 NS3-D1ST = Options being considered to optimize production depending on the final analysis of results.

L44H-D2 = testing multiple layers

NS5-D1ST = testing to come.

L33-3 Exploration Well = Drilling ahead

If some folks want to over-react... thats their loss IMHO.
If I didn't have plenty already - I'd be considering topping up if there's a correction today!

DYOR.
-Dukey.


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## adobee (28 May 2008)

Anything below 70c I am going to start buying ..
I dont see any really negative news and there is plenty of upside still to come..


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## 1234 (28 May 2008)

It's not that the result/ann is overly -'ve, it's the timing.

There will be sellers who will offload, then come back in a week for the flow results.

They trade, we invest (to an extent.) There is a distinct difference in the mentality and interpretation of results and hence trading...

Chill, she aint going too far south for anyone..


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## quarky (3 June 2008)

adobee said:


> Anything below 70c I am going to start buying ..
> I dont see any really negative news and there is plenty of upside still to come..





you got what you wished for.
CVN is at $0.685 today, so it's dropped significantly from the highs of $0.80 a couple of weeks ago.

i should have sold it then. 


then again, a lot of resource stocks have gone down slightly today anyway.
oh well, more waiting then...


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## doogie_goes_off (3 June 2008)

JP Morgan have become a substantial holder, a very good sign for long term fundamentals in my view.


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## adobee (3 June 2008)

doogie_goes_off said:


> JP Morgan have become a substantial holder, a very good sign for long term fundamentals in my view.




This is great news.. perhaps with JP Morgan getting on board other major investors will start paying attention too.. i would expect for the mean time that 5% of the shares will have less trading also which should be benneficial..
I wouldnt expect they would be taking a 5% position if they didnt expect big things from cvn or saw the share price slding much further..


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## kenny (5 June 2008)

With the downtrend CVN finds itself right now, I'm feeling like one of those "Trader turned Investor" while watching my stock stumble towards a Trailing SL.

Correct me if I'm wrong but we should expect results within 14 days or so and appraisal wells usually test ok. L33-3 has already been flagged a high risk play with possibly some nice returns.

Anyone care to offer  Fib retrace level? mid 50's?

Cheers,

Kenny


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## 1234 (6 June 2008)

kenny - news within 7 days mate, possibly as early as Tuesday.

I wouldn't be too bothered about the downtrend, following a very familiar pattern. I expect a gentle rise over the next 2-3 trading days with results mid/late nxt week at the latest. (10-12 days from 28th May ANN as stated)


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## JTLP (6 June 2008)

I'm pretty sure i made mention of JP Morgan flying up the register a month back...good to see it came to fruition.

Now all we need is another 10 top institutions taking a 5% stake and that should sure as S&^t tighten up this crappy register. GAH i always say too many on issue.

Here's looking forward to at least getting a 2,000 bopd well. Need some more flows to add to reserves.

7 days is a longggg time in this market atm


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## chewy (6 June 2008)

Last ann said 10-12 days for NS5-D1ST flow rates and 10 days for the other zones of L44H-D2. Today is day 9 and monday is a holiday - so should be the usual scramble late today to get on board before the ann if past patterns hold true.


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## JTLP (7 June 2008)

Investor report out late afternoon.

Basically a re-hash of the previous one, but with some nice things:

- $23 mil cash
- No Debt
- Expansion plans within S.E Asia (this gets mentioned quite a bit)
- Some focus on the other plays outside of Thailand (offshore West Australia, plus potential gas play for '09)
- Sole bidder on new blocks with Pearl Energy

I want CVN to grow and grow. I wish they would start announcing new projects and eating up into other territory. Would LOVE to look back in 10 years time and think "GG was right with his itch of a mini WPL" ...

Time will tell but for now...

VIVA LA CVN!


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## MS+Tradesim (7 June 2008)

While we're waiting for the next announcement, Hartley's have an update for May 30 which clarifies some of the info from our last ann. Worth a read:
http://www.carnarvon.com.au/docs/CVN External 20080529 BUN.pdf


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## allaboutprofits (12 June 2008)

Seems the story continues... POE update...




Pan Orient Energy Corp.: Thailand Drilling Update

CALGARY, ALBERTA--(Marketwire - June 12, 2008) -

NOT FOR DISSEMINATION TO U.S. NEWSWIRE SERVICES OR FOR DISSEMINATION IN THE UNITED STATES.

Pan Orient Energy Corp. (TSX VENTUREOE) (45,391,442 common shares issued):

L44H-D2 Exploration/Appraisal Well Testing (60% WI & Operator)

The L44H-D2 deviated appraisal well, in addition to the main volcanic zone, penetrated five deeper never before tested volcanic intervals. Testing has now been completed on the four most prospective deeper volcanic zones resulting in the failure to yield commercial hydrocarbons.

The last test, within the main producing volcanic zone, through casing perforations (whereas the other NSE wells are produced optimally as open hole wells) between 840 and 860 meters MD has resulted in oil production at a restricted rate of approximately 600 bopd.

NS5-D1ST Horizontal Development Well (60% WI & Operator)

The NS5-D1ST horizontal development well, located in the southern most, down dip portion of the NSE Central fault compartment had reached a total measured depth of 1,406 meters (872 meters TVD) within the target volcanic reservoir zone. Testing has now been underway for approximately 4 days with the well on low pump setting and still in clean up stage, after the loss of 7,200 barrels of mainly fresh water pumped into the formation during drilling operations. Oil rates have been variable between 85-140 bopd with 60 to 142 barrels of fresh water.

NS5-D1ST is the last of two wells (the other being NS3-D1ST announced on May 27) to be drilled on the structurally low flanks of the Na Sanun East oil field. NS3-D1ST and NS5-D1ST were the only accessible locations on NSE prior to the granting of recently received environmental approval for the drilling of an additional 19 development and appraisal wells within the area of the NSE field. Drilling of these new locations is about to commence, as detailed later in this release.

L33-3 Exploration Well (60% WI & Operator)

The L33-3 exploration well, located on concession L33, was drilled to a total true vertical depth of approximately 1,084 meters encountering a potential volcanic reservoir between 960 and 1,084 meters. Lost circulation was encountered at 960, 1,021, 1,035, 1,046, 1,060, 1,064 and 1,082 meters at rates between 4.6 and 120 barrels per hour. Similar to successful POE-9, NS6-D1A and L44-R wells, no oil shows were encountered while drilling the potential reservoir section.

L33-3 is a high risk stratigraphic test well drilled on the basis of one 2D seismic line within the untested Khon Khwang graben, located 33 kilometers north of the nearest proven production at Wichian Buri. The objective of the well is to evaluate the source rock and reservoir potential within the Khon Khwang sub basin. Validation of the source rock presence and maturity would approximately double the region of hydrocarbon potential within concessions L33 and L44 and result in an extensive 2D seismic program over this large area in July 2008.

Testing is anticipated to be completed within 10 to 14 days.

NS9-H1 Horizontal Appraisal Well (60% WI & Operator)

NS9-H1, located within the Na Sanun oil field (due west and distinctly separate from NSE) and within the SW1A contract area, is currently drilling ahead at a true vertical depth of 433 meters towards the horizontal kick off point above the main volcanic reservoir objective predicted at approximately 935 meters TVD. The well is planned to intersect the target at a point approximately 250 meters northeast of the NS-1 well and 20 to 25 meters structural higher. Drilling is anticipated to be completed within 14 days.

NSE-A1 Appraisal Well (60% WI & Operator)

The NSE-A1 appraisal well will start drilling in approximately 7 days, immediately after casing has been set on L33-3 and the rig moved on to location. The well is located at the crest of the NSE Central fault compartment, offsetting the L44H-D1 well which is currently producing at 3,300 bopd. The drill pad consists of 4 drilling cellars with the first well planned to be drilled vertically and to core the upper section of the approximately 180 meter thick main volcanic reservoir. An additional three deviated/horizontal wells will be drilled in succession immediately thereafter.

Summary

With the imminent drilling of the NSE-A1 well, full scale development of the NSE field will kick off, with up to 19 wells that are optimally located in the NSE Central fault compartment targeting 2P and 3P reserves, and the Northern fault compartment targeting prospective resources. A delay of 6 months while waiting for environmental approval of the 19 NSE development well locations resulted in the drilling of less than ideal down flank wells (NS3-D1ST and NS5-D1ST) in an attempt to build production and offset the decline in field production from peak levels. The same period also resulted in the building of tanker and refinery offloading capacity up to the approximately 15,000 bopd level, which will ensure deliverability as near term production grows over the coming months.

With the initiation of drilling from the 4 well NSE-A pad, production is anticipated to increase significantly over the coming two to three month period. An additional three multi-well pads are under construction over the northern undeveloped portion of the NSE central fault compartment. In addition, land purchase is underway for a number of drilling locations in the NSE north fault compartment (a large prospective resource region) and the NSE central fault compartment (a large 3P reserve region), with the objective of increasing the Company's proved and probable reserves.

Field production to date has been well within management expectations, given the six month delay in location approvals. Current production capacity is approximately 7,900 bopd gross (Pan Orient 60% WI). Of this production, only 3 wells have more than a 1% water cut; the 2 structurally lowest wells (NS3-D1ST and NS5-D1ST) and L44H-D2.

NS3-ST1 was produced as high as 1,800 bopd for three days with nominal water before showing immediate water cuts. It is highly likely that if the well had been choked back to rates of less than 1,000 bopd it would still, and for some time in the future, continue to produce with low water cuts. Analysis indicates water was drawn up from the underlying, nearby water leg as a result of producing at far too high of a rate given the relative permeability between NSE crude and water, and the wells low structural position. Similarly, NS5-D1ST was drilled down flank on the NSE central fault compartment and still in the clean up stage after losing 7,200 bbls of fresh water into the formation due to lost circulation while drilling. L44H-D2, in addition to the approximately 600 barrels of oil production a day, is currently producing approximately 380 barrels of water per day as a result of a very poor cement job over the 180 meter thick, most intensely fractured volcanic section penetrated in any well to date. Within this volcanic section, approximately 80 meters of oil bearing reservoir was penetrated before drilling below the field oil water contact to target the deeper volcanic zones. A remedial cement job was not possible due to two casing strings present over the producing reservoir section, as the well was programmed to target testing of deeper volcanic zones. A nearby well up structure is producing at 0% water and a well down structure at less than 1% water.

All other producing NSE wells, other than the three described above, produce with water cuts ranging from 0.01% and 1.0%. These other wells account for approximately 89% of the NSE oil production.

Of particular note, L44H-D1, the highest flow rate well ever drilled onshore Thailand and located off the crest of the NSE central fault compartment, was put on production at a rate of approximately 3,500 bopd six months ago and continues to produce at approximately 3,300 bopd (representing a decline rate of approximately 6%) with a water cut of 0.01% throughout its history. Cumulative production for this well alone is over 600,000 barrels of oil.

Pan Orient is a Calgary, Alberta based oil and gas exploration and production company with operations currently located onshore Thailand, Indonesia and in Western Canada.


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## grace (12 June 2008)

I'm really hopeless at determining whether these announcements are good or bad.  I gather it's a bit of both....would that be right?


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## Dukey (12 June 2008)

grace said:


> I'm really hopeless at determining whether these announcements are good or bad.  I gather it's a bit of both....would that be right?




It is difficult to wade through....

I like this bit...



> With the initiation of drilling from the 4 well NSE-A pad, production is anticipated to increase significantly over the coming two to three month period. An additional three multi-well pads are under construction over the northern undeveloped portion of the NSE central fault compartment.



so it seems that these two wells : (NS3-D1ST and NS5-D1ST) were not 'first choice' locations - but were drilled because they had the rig booked/ready but didn't get approvals on time to drill preferred locations.

- if you wanna see the negative you could say its an excuse....  or you could see it +vely as a 'good reason' and adding to their knowledge of the area.   Hard to know which is more accurate.

Most of the other bit seem similar - + & -.

600 bopd from L44H-D2 on restricted flow  helps a bit but market possibly expected better. 

I guess in the current market - sp may well drop tomorrow.... but for long termers - I think the next few months will see nice production increases, so I'l hang in there for the black gold at the end of this little rainbow .


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## allaboutprofits (12 June 2008)

From what I believe traders/investors were hoping for a greater momentum in producing oil than what has been so far achieved. Even though there are small gains from this announcement, the momentum seems to have slowed down. If we are holding for a longish term (I am), the prospect looks good. Though for traders, I think we might see a short term dip in SP. Hard to say for sure in this current market with high oil prices and demand... Only time will tell, and this benefits the longer term investors...


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## JTLP (12 June 2008)

CVN is going to get smashed tomorrow.

That is a really poor announcement.

They built a lot of potential into the previous ann and then this comes, and we have barely any oil. Trader's will not like this at all.

They better pull out another JP MORGAN style investor to build in some support for the SP. Hopefully that was the reason for the latest investor report.

Not really enjoying tomorrow...


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## doogie_goes_off (13 June 2008)

Net oil production hasn't really changed, the NSE field is proven as an oil producing field and the first new hole from a vertical access is almost under way. Traders may drive this one down - I'm sitting tight for a few weeks as NSE looks like a winner to me, the great thing is that approvals appear to have plenty of room for increased production if it's successful (a good chance).


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## snake100 (15 June 2008)

Ann came out in the morning on the 13th, and share price has factored the ann already, however agree it will decrease again.

Things to understand with oil company announcements are depth of the well, on shore vs off shore, depth of oil, also the grade plus flow rate and when production will occur. Good traders take everything into consideration. Hope this helps somewhat.


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## JTLP (15 June 2008)

Hmmm...

Investor Update came out right before a not so great outcome from the Ann.

Hopefully we are appealing to more "JP Morgan" esque funds and they aren't scared by this little doozy!

I remember reading on here about Ted's goal to stabilize the stock with more institutional and long haul investors...i dig that if he can get it.

Last time a "drilling update" occurred the SP got smashed only to recover beautifully. It has recovered well once again and hopefully we are seeing another major take a position, or JP taking some of the trader's stock off their hands 

It is also all good to see more approvals for NSE...fingers crossed for a 3rd drill rig to come online in August.

Would really like to the company to update us on other projects AND PLEASE TED IF YOU READ THIS start announcing acquisitions into other parts of Asia or Australia and start chugging the CVN juggernaut to new great heights.

JTLP


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## adobee (18 June 2008)

I am reasonable confident to leave my CVN sitting around for now.. what are other CVN holders holding as early day oil producers ?


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## MS+Tradesim (18 June 2008)

From a VSA perspective we now have a fourth day where the selldowns couldn't be sustained. Buyers are happy to pick up stock off  eager sellers at this level. The lows are getting higher. Don't know if this will last long but when all the available shares at these prices are soaked up we should be off again.


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## JTLP (18 June 2008)

Hmm it could well be another insto buying with these larger claw backs.

This happened last time the results weren't up to expectation...(big swings) so lets hope we are getting another insto on board (maybe ted has been listening to me and reading ASF ) it would coincide nicely with the presentation


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## grace (27 June 2008)

What is with this one today?  Oil price goes up, this goes down.  Doesn't make any sense to me...comments anyone?  Down close to 10% hitting low of 55c.


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## doogie_goes_off (27 June 2008)

Not sure but I think it's just swings and roundabouts. I expect this one to come back to the 60c support where it has kicked up a couple of times before. Still fundamentally good with brilliant upside.


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## Rob 17 (27 June 2008)

Im very concerned with this one. 

I have been watching the Joint Venture partner over the last two days and it has fallen over 12%.

I was looking to get back in at .55 cents but pulled out last minute. It will be interesting to see if any news comes out over night.

Do You Own Research and Take Care


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## adobee (27 June 2008)

has me a little worried craxy oil price but big drop !!!
but i still might  top up if come down around 50c..
perhaps a large holder just existing their position.. if this is the case we will see a change in holdings..  40 c seemed to be the bottom when the credit crunch hit which was pure panic selling.. unless the well has run dry i cant see to many problems..


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## Go Nuke (27 June 2008)

Alot of strange things happen around tax time.

Tax, tax tax. Need I say more
Probably cashing in to balance out some losses in the finance sector


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## Max_ob (27 June 2008)

bugger. . .. . when i left my machine, it was on .59 . . . . 

what a shock to find it at .545   . . . . 


also wondering what happened. . . . i bought in at .655 a while ago. . . . so carrying a bit of a loss on this one now. . . . hope it is judst tax selling and not some insiders knowing of some pending baaad news. . .


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## Max_ob (28 June 2008)

actually. . . i have just consulted my genuine bohemian crystal ball. . . . and it says a definite bounce on Monday. . . . .

. . . . this is barring any bad announcement of course. . then it would be  for missing my stop loss. . . .


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## 1234 (29 June 2008)

Max - I've been holding a long time an whilst the current market situation does not help those who bought in recently, I too topped up at 65.5 in confidence...

I won't be offloading a single one of them for a looong time yet..

Put the S/L on ignore, you'll be glad you did for the multi well should bring some nice rises in sp for those holding.. Not too far away now..

The next ann won't be very goo imo as it's a wildcat - high risk well.. Even a sniff of oil from that will be a massive bonus.. Not holding my breath tho 

Market always drops @ tax time, you get that..


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## Max_ob (29 June 2008)

thanks for the vote of confidence in this stock 1234. . . . for LT


the next ann has me a little concerned with the quick sp decline. . . and with the US having had another bad day on friday. . . 

breaking through and closing below the 52c mark would worry me dearly. . .


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## JTLP (29 June 2008)

Hmmm, folks you have to remember (and i'm not saying this is the cause for the sell off but probably a very realistic reason) that CVN was on 10 cents at this stage a year ago. Very high probability that there has been some combination of selling for cap gains as well as stop losses being hit.

Nothing has changed with CVN...very tight lipped ship (don't even reply to my e-mails haha) so I doubt it's an insider slamming them.

Does look to be a generous 1 mil on the sell side keeping things down though...accumulation perhaps?

Results are definetly due this week for some low and high risk wells...as somebody else mentioned wildcat drilling...could be a lucky surprise?

I'm holding steady with CVN...by years end will be producing 6,000 BOPD...that's a very good effort from what they were producing a year ago!

Love the management also...always seem nice and agressive. I've spelled out the year ahead a few pages back...and i've even missed some parts!

Also an investor presentation was put out...hopefully we can see some big buying happening again.

JTLP


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## michael_selway (29 June 2008)

JTLP said:


> Hmmm, folks you have to remember (and i'm not saying this is the cause for the sell off but probably a very realistic reason) that CVN was on 10 cents at this stage a year ago. Very high probability that there has been some combination of selling for cap gains as well as stop losses being hit.
> 
> Nothing has changed with CVN...very tight lipped ship (don't even reply to my e-mails haha) so I doubt it's an insider slamming them.
> 
> ...




Hi do you know whatthe expected mien life is at full production?

*Earnings and Dividends Forecast (cents per share) 
2007 2008 2009 2010 
EPS -0.3 4.1 8.6 9.5 
DPS 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 *

thx

MS


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## JTLP (30 June 2008)

michael_selway said:


> Hi do you know whatthe expected mien life is at full production?
> 
> *Earnings and Dividends Forecast (cents per share)
> 2007 2008 2009 2010
> ...




Hi Michael,

I'm pretty sure that the JV in Thailand does not want to exceed producing 20,000 BOPD (net 6,000 to CVN) due to the excessive taxes that would have to be paid (SRB + royalties...quite a lot sadly)...so i'm guessing the expected life of the Thailand fields with the JV (POE) to be the following (figures relate to CVN only):

Using 2P reserves of: 11.377 MMBBLS

CVN producing at max. capacity: 6000 BOPD

SO

6,000 BOPD x 365 (day in day out full cap.) = 2,190,000 = 2.19 MMBBLS per year

11.377 / 2.19 = 5.2

So (if my maths is correct) then i'd say that CVN could comfortably produce for 5 years out of there current Thailand fields only.

ALSO NOTE:

These figures are 2P and do not take into account future drilling successes (and don't include oil finds at the start of the year).

Hope that helps Michael...I still see lots of upside in CVN...maybe they can weasel there way with the Thai government and scrap some of those taxes...that would be nice!

Adios...

JTLP


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## Rob 17 (30 June 2008)

Does anyone know why CVN has gone out of favour? Seems like there a many large sell orders lined up.  Hope we come across some oil soon.


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## money maker (1 July 2008)

would not worry too much.Many sellers leading up to end of financial year locking in losses probably when they bought above current levels and spooked into selling for capital gains offset. 

fundamentals are all still there so not worrying me much.will skyrocket again on good news and todays trading appears promising.


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## Garpal Gumnut (2 July 2008)

JTLP said:


> I still see lots of upside in CVN...maybe they can weasel there way with the Thai government and scrap some of those taxes...that would be nice!
> 
> Adios...
> 
> JTLP




Sovereign risk appears the main risk. I do hope all the multiplication on barrels, feet, dollars, bhaaat and arabs is correct, I'll leave that to the funnymentalists.

My hopes for a wave 3 going up to $1.30 were misplaced. I still feel bullish on CVN, very low volumes on the June retracement, and I agree that tax/cg/cl influenced many to sell in June. I considered it but the volumes decided me against it.

This chart appears to be a fit up, tailored to my gut view. It may be, but a rise in price in July would make me very bullish on CVN. 

Its good to be home in OZ. The rest of the world seems like a crazy place compared to home. 

gg


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## Tukker (2 July 2008)

I liked the way the chart looked and jumped on board today.  Appeared to be oversold and holding well on a crap day. With tax selling out of the way id like to see the hot stuff getting hotter; oil, coal, potash, and grandmas curry.

Gl to holders


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## Motogoon (2 July 2008)

I like the look of that chart Gumnut, if it happens like that i'll be a very happy man. I bought in at 67, watched it go to 80, then saw my hopes and dreams smashed on the rocks as hit the low 50's, (well not really all my hopes and dreams, but the new heat pump i wanted for the house will have to wait, man its cold here in good old NZ)


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## JTLP (2 July 2008)

Garpal Gumnut said:


> Sovereign risk appears the main risk. I do hope all the multiplication on barrels, feet, dollars, bhaaat and arabs is correct, I'll leave that to the funnymentalists.
> 
> My hopes for a wave 3 going up to $1.30 were misplaced. I still feel bullish on CVN, very low volumes on the June retracement, and I agree that tax/cg/cl influenced many to sell in June. I considered it but the volumes decided me against it.
> 
> ...




Thanks GG...you provide the T/A ill drop the F/A!

Question...with the WAVE 5...if it reaches its target; do we then go through the A B C cycle and back to EW? Not too sure how that all works 

Good to see CVN gaining again today. Just hope it isn't on expectation of an ann and as mentioned a gazillion times, an investor 

GG; the point i was getting across with my calcs was that of CVN's upside in it's current Thai fields. If it decides to take up an option with Pearl Energy (Thai company) then from memory the SRB tax is in essence reset to zero and they can produce more again! LOL.

I am hoping that to reduce this risk they begin to look at acquire exploration areas outside of Thailand and in more parts of S.E Asia.

Sovereign risk is a killer though you are correct...get some tax treaties with Thailand Kruddy!


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## Garpal Gumnut (4 July 2008)

JTLP said:


> Thanks GG...you provide the T/A ill drop the F/A!
> 
> Question...with the WAVE 5...if it reaches its target; do we then go through the A B C cycle and back to EW? Not too sure how that all works
> 
> ...





If you were a true blue EW believer then yes is the answer. Wave 5 is then followed by a b c . Very few hold to it so, however. Then this 12345 would be wave 1 of a higher wave ( hopes) and the abc would be the new wave 2. 

Nick Radge might be able to comment with more knowledge on EW than I possess.

gg


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## Rob 17 (9 July 2008)

Looks like CVN is getting sold off. Would be nice to get an update on testing which is over due. 

The JV partner has been sold off heavily over the past week. 

I think this will  continue to head down until we get an update. Hopefully full development of the NSE field is still on the cards.

Do you own research..


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## Johntf (9 July 2008)

Rob 17. Drilling update just posted by CVN. Does not say much, just more testing etc, minor technical delays and hope still get to 15000 barrels per day by year's end. What do you make of it? Johntf


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## MS+Tradesim (9 July 2008)

Johntf said:


> Rob 17. Drilling update just posted by CVN. Does not say much, just more testing etc, minor technical delays and hope still get to 15000 barrels per day by year's end. What do you make of it? Johntf




The announcement says nothing of value. I don't see that it will halt or slow the share price decline.


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## Dukey (9 July 2008)

MS+Tradesim said:


> The announcement says nothing of value. I don't see that it will halt or slow the share price decline.




unfortunately I have to agree - as much as there is nothing particularly negative in the ann. - I expect that in this fickle market the sell off will continue.   


Assets still there .... 
(... Geez - I'm starting to sound like  a broken record with that one  - have said the same on a few threads lately)
-dukey 
(holding cvn)


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## INORE (9 July 2008)

Dukey said:


> unfortunately I have to agree - as much as there is nothing particularly negative in the ann. - I expect that in this fickle market the sell off will continue.
> 
> 
> Assets still there ....
> ...




but i do think that for the holders that may have been thinking of selling because they thought there may be a leak on some bad news coming... may now decide to keep holding.


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## Rob 17 (9 July 2008)

Johntf said:


> Rob 17. Drilling update just posted by CVN. Does not say much, just more testing etc, minor technical delays and hope still get to 15000 barrels per day by year's end. What do you make of it? Johntf





I sold out of this stock a while back but was looking to re-enter and kept pulling out my order. 

I like to look at the performance of the JV partners stock price as a guide to CVN's direction. Seems like CVN held up well as JP Morgan Chase & Co and its affiliates were buying their stake. Now that were in a bear market and many traders have taken big hits i can see no hurry to get bac in.

Still like stock long term. It would be nice if CVN didnt have to rely on the Thailand drilling so much.

*Im no expert.* *DO YOUR OWN RESEARCH*


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## JTLP (9 July 2008)

What

The

Fruitcake

Was

That

Announcement?

Seriously? O RLY CVN...thanks for that crappy update. One could only assume they put it out to ease some holders minds. It has taken quite a hit (unfortunately) and they must have been worried about this (now they got a big boy on board )

I'm very bullish on CVN but that was a crap announcement.

And one more VERY IMPORTANT THING:
Wasn't there plan to have 20,000 bopd (gross...CVN 8,000 net) by years end?

Whats this reduced 15,000 figure? eek im predicting another smashing tomorrow unfortunately.


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## Dutchy3 (12 July 2008)

This one now might reasonably be finding support at these levels ... ready for a move back to 70 ish


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## Go Nuke (12 July 2008)

Indeed.

I noted the morning star on my chart too.
And its a bullish engulfing pattern for Wednesdays trading.
Combined with the fact that the MACD looks ready to cross and head back up..it looks very bullish indeed.

The only problem with candlestick charting imo, is that we lag behind the U.S.
So whatever happens in the U.S can throw my candlestick charts out the window

Though my thoughts are that it could go as far as 58-60c based on a Fib extention of 38.2% and support/resistance.


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## 1234 (13 July 2008)

Charting/TA is funny.
The only reason CVN dropped is on fundies. If environmental approval had come thru 6 months ago as first thought - the last 3 wells would not have been drilled and the L44 offset - multiwell would be up and running by now. Full field development would be underway and cvn would be breaking new highs daily..

I don't really care much for the charts - butterfly dojis' or morning stars, facts are we're still a few weeks out from a (very) good result, which will push skywards - If the US doesn't slide off the face of the Earth beforehand..

I use charts as a historical tool. Volume speaks more to me than most indicators.. Loose lips sink ships - They can also raise the Titanic... The patterns I look for are those before ann's, relative to the content of the ann..

There will always be anticipation, manipulation and circumstance which make the charts what they are..... End of the day - if CVN don't pull oil out of the ground, the chart's only going one way..

 Happy to hold..


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## Garpal Gumnut (13 July 2008)

1234 said:


> Charting/TA is funny.
> The only reason CVN dropped is on fundies. If environmental approval had come thru 6 months ago as first thought - the last 3 wells would not have been drilled and the L44 offset - multiwell would be up and running by now. Full field development would be underway and cvn would be breaking new highs daily..
> 
> I don't really care much for the charts - butterfly dojis' or morning stars, facts are we're still a few weeks out from a (very) good result, which will push skywards - If the US doesn't slide off the face of the Earth beforehand..
> ...




1234 you've said it all mate, absolutely spot on. Watch volume and price action, listen out and go on your remaining gut instinct. The amygdala rules ok. 

gg


----------



## JTLP (15 July 2008)

CVN managed to secure insto buying which was good...would now like to see some other/more insto buying at these low prices.

Although the tax regime is quite the pickle to determine, CVN should have some very nice cashflow figures at the end of this quarter...and are running at about 3,000 BOPD (this figure is expected to double in 5 months time )

They must be drilling some pretty big targets in the next few months to choke that figure out...let's hope we can see it!

They also have a fair bit of stuff in the pipelines that seems to be fairly slow in getting to the market:

- Application for 2 blocks with Pearl Energy (Sole Bidders)
- Indonesian Study
- S.E Asia Interests (lets look for other projects in this region!)
- Aero targets with SUR (August I believe?)


----------



## JTLP (17 July 2008)

MORE OLIOOOOOOOOOOOOOOO!!! (Oil for you english speaking people)

The NSE-A1 well is currently free flowing from a newly discovered, approximately 17 meter thick upper volcanic/volcanic clastic reservoir at a restricted rate of approximately 1,245 bopd. Current water cut is approximately 0.5% and flowing tubing and casing head pressures are high at 210 psig @26/64" choke and 340 psig @26/64" choke, respectively.

Its about time we got some more oil into the coffers.

Re-cap of the announcement shows the following:

NSE-A1 New Pool Discovery Well (60% WI & Operator) - newly discovered, approximately 17 meter thick upper volcanic/volcanic clastic reservoir at a restricted rate of approximately 1,245 bopd (i like that it is restricted )

NSE-A3 Horizontal Appraisal Well (60% WI & Operator) - Finish testing in 7 days

L44-C Vertical Appraisal Well (60% WI & Operator) - Completed within 14 days

L33-3 Exploration Well (60% WI & Operator) - Abandoned but 2 other sites to be drilled later this year

NS9-H1 Horizontal Appraisal Well (60% WI & Operator) - Abandoned - failure to encounter main reservoir objective

POE: Full scale development of the NSE field and adjacent areas of resource potential, with up to 19 wells, has now commenced. Production is anticipated to ramp up significantly over the coming months as a result of this drilling program
_________

Overall this is pretty positive to me. NS9-H1 is a bit disappointing to see nothing (as it is an appraisal well) but overall wasn't expecting much from the Wildcat (L33-3).

Still 2 other appraisal wells to go...perhaps an ann in about 20 days? (I always add on about a week from the completed testing dates)...

JTLP


----------



## Dukey (17 July 2008)

Great!! That won't hurt at all!!

Lets hope NSE A3 adds more oil to make up for those abandoned wells.

Can't wait to see CVN back she belongs - up near her highs of ~75-80c!!

-G'luck all holders - dukey


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## 1234 (18 July 2008)

Seems the Canadian market likes it.

POE up +20% in early trade on big volume.

Nice to see them getting results from other areas of exploration.

Reserves should take a nice jump next year as a result..


----------



## kenny (18 July 2008)

Is CVN bearing much of the cost of the drilling in this program?

Now what we need to see is some decent volume to confirm a reversal out of this steep downtrend that has shot through some long term EMA's

Cheers,

Kenny


----------



## Johntf (18 July 2008)

New discovery at NSE-A1 but not much reaction on the market. Still ,things seem to be moving in the right direction at least. Next quarterly report should be interesting.


----------



## Rob 17 (22 July 2008)

Earnings and Dividends Forecast (cents per share) 

             2007            2008            2009                2010 
EPS        -0.3             4.1              8.6                  11.4 

It would be nice if CVN bought back some of its shares..

Maybe that will stablise the share price.


 DYOR


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## grace (22 July 2008)

Rob 17 said:


> Earnings and Dividends Forecast (cents per share)
> 
> 2007            2008            2009                2010
> EPS        -0.3             4.1              8.6                  11.4
> ...




Trading at a P/E of 5.8 based on 2009 forecasts.  Shouldn't be much downside from here if the forecasts are correct as that is about where the lowest bear market P/E should be!


----------



## dogwithflees1983 (22 July 2008)

BUY recommendation in the West Australian today...Hartley's value Carnavon at $1.15....so lots of upside if the mkt turns


----------



## JTLP (22 July 2008)

Nice work CVN.

Ann out: New Ventures management for long term prospects.

This makes me fuzzy inside lol. I want to be holding these in 5 years time and slapping high 5's with Ted whilst drinking Chrystallll and a Thai Palace.


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## simo (24 July 2008)

New well flows 2250 bopd .....check on marketwire Pan Orient Energy

Hope this makes a better impact on the share price than the last few announcements have made.


----------



## fordxbt (24 July 2008)

simo i cant find that news, do you have a url?
thanks
.................................................................


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## MS+Tradesim (24 July 2008)

Jul 24, 2008 06:00 ETNew Well NSE-A3 on Production at 2,250 bopd
CALGARY, ALBERTA--(Marketwire - July 24, 2008) - Pan Orient Energy Corp. (TSX VENTUREOE) - 

NOT FOR DISSEMINATION TO U.S. NEWSWIRE SERVICES OR FOR DISSEMINATION IN THE UNITED STATES.

NSE-A3 Horizontal Appraisal Well (60% WI & Operator)

The NSE-A3 horizontal well is free flowing oil from the main volcanic reservoir within the NSE central fault compartment at a stabilized rate of approximately 2,250 bopd with 0.1% water cut and choke settings/surface flowing pressures of 42/64" @120 psi on the tubing and 24/64" @130 psi on the casing.

The NSE-A3 horizontal appraisal well was drilled to a total measured depth of 897 meters, penetrating the top of the main volcanic target at a depth of 755 meters TVD at a location approximately 420 meters due north of the NSE-A1 surface location. A 60 meter horizontal section was drilled within the upper 6 meters of the approximately 180 meter thick main volcanic. On July 17, Pan Orient announced a 1,245 bopd discovery of a new upper volcanic/volcanic clastic reservoir in its NSE-A1 well. This newly discovered productive zone at NSE-A1 was also encountered in NSE-A3, and drilled though, exhibiting high mud gas readings and good oil shows.

L44-C Vertical Appraisal Well (60% WI & Operator)

The L44-C vertical appraisal well is currently drilling ahead at a depth of approximately 1,000 meters through and towards multi-zone objectives within the F and G sandstones and a deeper "WB-1" volcanic at a location 1.15 kilometers north of the POE-6 oil discovery and within the POE-6 fault compartment. Oil shows and elevated mud gas readings have been observed at a number of stratigraphic levels while drilling. The WB-1 "Deep" volcanic reservoir is anticipated to be encountered at a depth of approximately 1,250 meters.

L44-C is part of a multi-well appraisal program that is intended to define the potential of sandstone and volcanic reservoir targets in the up dip portion of the POE-6 and Wichian Buri fault compartments for future vertical and horizontal infill drilling. L44-C drilling is anticipated to be completed within approximately 10 days.

NSE-A4 New Horizontal Appraisal Well (60% WI & Operator)

The NSE-A4 horizontal appraisal well is currently drilling ahead at a depth of approximately 120 meters towards the top of the main volcanic reservoir objective at a subsurface location approximately 350 meters northeast of the NSE-A drilling pad, within the NSE central fault compartment. Drilling is anticipated to be completed within approximately 14 days.

SUMMARY

The high deliverability NSE-A3 flow rates, combined with the new zone discovery at NSE-A1 announced one week ago, provide an exceptional start to the main NSE central fault compartment development that is now underway. The multi-well drill pad containing NSE-A1, NSE-A3, and NSE-A4 was the first of its kind in Pan Orient's development plan. There is currently one additional multi-well drill pad where construction has been completed, three additional multi-well drill pads that are under construction plus another three multi-well drill pads where the land has been purchased and construction is about to commence.

http://www.marketwirecanada.com/mw/rel_ca.jsp?id=882322&k=pan orient


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## JTLP (25 July 2008)

YEEEEIIIII HAAAAA

SCHWING...

What's that now...2,250 + 1,245 = 3495 * CVN interest = 1398 BOPD in the last week!

Very very nice CVN...all adding up to a beautiful quarterly and rolling on to meet their EOY quota. Too bad JP Morgan are selling out now  but eh...hopefully this attracts bigger and better attention!

L44-C looks pretty promising also...hope they crack some more oil there...might give us a rise and head back to GG's wave 3 target (LOL i think that is all but lost now).

Could NSE-A4 make a potential 3 from 3 from NSE???

CETTA CHANG CHANG IN THE BANK!!!

Let's get some true value reflected in CVN now.


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## kenny (29 July 2008)

Ted Jacobsen bought 100000 shares yesterday at 47.5c.

Anyone want to comment? Showing leadership/commitment and a signal to follow closely or a small gesture that's unlikely to slow the slide?

Cheers,

Kenny


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## Rob 17 (29 July 2008)

Its a good sign. Although its small parcel it sends the message that he has confidence in the direction the company is going.

Id hate to think what would have happened if we didnt have good flow results the past two annoucements.

Most stocks if not all have been hit in this market. It will take time for the market to settle than quality stocks will be back in favour. Lets hope CVN can keep coming out with solid figures. I think it can go up as quickly as it has come down. I bought in at 52 cents.

All in my opinion.

DYOR


----------



## Pigsy (30 July 2008)

What's wrong with this stock?  It falls when the petrol price rises and falls when the petrol price drops. Even today when the overall market has risen 2% it's still lost 1%.
Just for the technically minded if the price falls to 0.42 it will be a 100% Fibonacci retracement from the low of March 11. If it can't find support there it mind not find support again until 10 cents.


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## Rob_ee (30 July 2008)

Pigsy said:


> What's wrong with this stock?  It falls when the petrol price rises and falls when the petrol price drops. Even today when the overall market has risen 2% it's still lost 1%.
> Just for the technically minded if the price falls to 0.42 it will be a 100% Fibonacci retracement from the low of March 11. If it can't find support there it mind not find support again until 10 cents.




I don't believe that there is anything fundamentaly wrong with this stock
After all they are producing over 4000 bopd have (probably) 50 Mil in the bank ..report due tomorrow, excellent future exploration prospects...etc etc

In other words the current price is a joke.

The problem is that JPMorgan who own over 30 million shares are selling into the market having bought in the 50 -70 c range, so they are taking quite a loss.

Why are they doing this .... imo 2 possibillities, they are deliberately capping the price so they can buy in cheaper and have a lower average price or more likely like the other yank  geniouses  are in desperate need of money due to the sub-prime fiasco and have to sell to gain much needed funds.

IF and I repeat IF they are doing the forced selling its hard to say how many more millions thay have to sell, this has been going on all month.

So while I would NEVER ever buy a falling share in a NORMAL market environment, _which this is not_, I see this as a great buying opportunity.

Just how much cheaper it will get due to this forced/manipulative ?? selling is hard to say.

Its trading at a 60% discount of market analysts value.

Soon the JV will be producing 15000 bopd so a 43 cent current value seems like the greatest bargain of the year.

The above is my oppinion only and may be way of the mark sdyor

Rob


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## Rob 17 (30 July 2008)

I tend to agree with Rob. 

Why would anyone be selling this stock unless they are in a very desperate need of money. (sub-prime fiasco) 

The last two results have added to reserves. 

DYOR  by the way great name Rob


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## JTLP (30 July 2008)

Yawn...CVN is so boring. Put it in your bottom drawer...come back in a few years and see what happens.

CVN has the Yayyyyyyy Yoooo...JP Morgan are just hampering the price. You can't do anything except sit on your hands...no point worrying about it.


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## MS+Tradesim (30 July 2008)

I must be missing something...where is the info coming from that this is J.P.Morgan selling out? I haven't found it in announcements or Hartley's latest report.


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## Rob 17 (30 July 2008)

Carnavon Petroleum Limited (AU000000CVN8)
Appendix 180708.

JP Morgon 22/7/08 Ceasing to be a substantial holder

Balance as at *30 May 2008 *                             34,000,000    5.05%


*8-Jul-08* JPMAM(UK) Sell AUD 0.52 (2,084,000)    31,916,000  4.74%


Balance as at *18 July 2008 *                              31,916,000  4.74%


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## kenny (30 July 2008)

Wow, that's some overhang for CVN. Have JPM continued to sell down though? The volumes going through are not huge most days. 

Regards,

Kenny


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## Rob 17 (30 July 2008)

"Have JPM continued to sell down though?"

Thats the million dollar question  

We will find out in the next couple of weeks ...........

DYOR


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## jonnie (31 July 2008)

*CVN*

CVN continues it's slide. Expect support around the .38 mark.Still at the moment for holders.


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## jonnie (1 August 2008)

*CVN*

As expected the fall continues today.and: to continue for a while yet. My opinion only.


----------



## Sean K (1 August 2008)

*Re: CVN*



jonnie said:


> As expected the fall continues today.and: to continue for a while yet. My opinion only.



How did you come to that opinion jonnie?

And, please don't start new threads when you know one already exists.

Cheers


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## jonnie (1 August 2008)

Just looking at the chart kennas. Relax no need to get upset. I did say it was my opinion only.New thred, old thread still the same point.


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## Sean K (1 August 2008)

jonnie said:


> Just looking at the chart kennas. Relax no need to get upset. I did say it was my opinion only.New thred, old thread still the same point.



jonnie, Just because you say 'in my opinion' does not mean you can just sprout off anything without some analysis or justification. Adding a few qualifying remarks adds much more value and contributes to the knowledge of everyone else here.

So, what about the chart? Why .38?

In regard to starting threads, if you go and start a new one everytime you want to say something there would be a million threads on the site. Then, if anyone else wants to look up something on CVN, which thread does he go to? Please do a search prior to starting any new threads and if you have a comment on a particular stock, put it in that stock thread. If you don't do it, the Mods end up doing it. Thanks for your assistance.

Now, what about the chart?

Looks like it's broken key support at .43 to me and finished disastrously with a big red candle.


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## JTLP (1 August 2008)

Jonnie + Kennas...

Just a note...the selling pressure is without a doubt JP Morgan...they acquired an odd 32 million shares and become substantial holders...only to cease their existence as sig. holders a few weeks ago. Buyer's will be avoiding this for a while as JP can just push the shares out without having to worry about ann's to the market.

It really does suck for CVN...by years end they will be producing 6000 BOPD...just stuck in a hard place. I unfortunately have an emotional attachment to this stock (dangerous I know) but i jsut see them ticking all the right boxes and pulling all the right moves. I never say it but if I had cash on hand (leaving the country soon so no dice) I would pick some up.

So I guess at least the attachment is for success reasons...not pie in the sky predictions.

Let's hope we can get a bit of a turnaround because this is looking ugly.

JTLP


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## grace (4 August 2008)

JTLP, I must admit to being a bit attached to it too.

Here is Bell Potters take on CVN.

Initiating Coverage - Carnarvon Petroleum Target: A$0.87

Current net oil production of 4,000bopd to rise 50% in the next 6 months.





> Carnarvon Petroleum is a significant oil producer onshore Thailand, with excellent prospects to expand production from a growing reserve base. The operating environment is good, with low capital and operating costs, and a reasonable fiscal regime. Even with strong re-investment in further drilling, the company generates excess cash flow, particularly at current high oil prices around US$125 a barrel.
> 
> We value the company at $0.87 a share and forecast the company’s PE ratios at 6 - 4x for the next three years. Bell Potter initiates research coverage on CVN with a Buy recommendation.
> 
> ...


----------



## JTLP (4 August 2008)

Thanks Grace...at least i'm not going crazy. Have you been a long time holder?

CVN looks to have had a little buying today...a sigh of relief I guess. 

But it is probably to do with the upcoming drill results from 2 wells (most likely this week). I would hate to see what happens if they miss these ones (i think from memory 1 is an appraisal well too...!)

Bloody insto support was what I was crying out for...we get some...then they sell LOL!

Their JV (POE) must be looking at a T/O at these prices...hell even an insto must see value with these coverages and could be buying up!

Time will tell but my love for CVN will never falter LOL


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## skunkmonkey (4 August 2008)

I used to think my love for AED would never falter  
Anyway - I bought more CVN today at 42 cents.  Fingers crossed for a better end to the year.


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## Rob 17 (5 August 2008)

CVN's  share price is almost at the level it was when it was producing at very low levels. 

If anything things have improved ten fold.

This doesnt make sence to me. 

DYOR


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## MS+Tradesim (5 August 2008)

Rob 17 said:


> CVN's  share price is almost at the level it was when it was producing at very low levels.
> 
> If anything things have improved ten fold.
> 
> ...





In a bull market we have irrational exuberance upward. In a bear market we have irrational exuberance downwards. Apart from a big holder exiting (which may be the case) I cannot see any rational reason for this fall - production is up, cash at bank keeps rising, no debt, prospects great. I guess that's what makes this downtrend irrational.


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## skunkmonkey (5 August 2008)

Whoops - I bought too soon... $0.385 at the close today.  An opportunity to pick up a few more!    What an unpleasant day for commodities all round.


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## Garpal Gumnut (5 August 2008)

Rob 17 said:


> CVN's  share price is almost at the level it was when it was producing at very low levels.
> 
> If anything things have improved ten fold.
> 
> ...




sence ? a typo ??

CVN looks crook.

I was out at .65 , if it pokes anywhere below its next support/resistance at .35 I would be fearful it would tank.

gg


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## JTLP (6 August 2008)

GG i'm with you...chart looking very unhealthy.

I remain adamant that JP Morgan are flogging their stock off though...just too much sustained pressure. Oil may be down but I believe there is more to the story then that.

Do you still hold any CVN? You once called it your WPL in the making :

Still adamant about that view?

God we need some awesome flow rates...if not i'm with your target GG...and then it will be good night


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## Rob 17 (6 August 2008)

Garpal Gumnut said:


> sence ? a typo ??
> 
> CVN looks crook.
> 
> ...





The last time CVN was .65 was around the 20th of june 2008. On the 2nd of July 2008  u posted u "were still bullish on it".  ???????

I never take comments for more than they are worth but its just interesting. 

DYOR


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## jonojpsg (6 August 2008)

Honestly, I can't see how you could follow the chart to the point where you say it would tank  

  If the company is producing 4000bopd and looking to add another 2000bopd by years end, then even if POO hits $80 say, the company would still be making what 6000x$20x365 = $44 million profit (assuming a cost of production of $60pb which would be high I would think?).

That gives them a PE of about 6 at current MC.  Can't see that even with bear market pushing SP lower that the fundamentals will allow SP to go below 35, and if oil stabilises above $100 then that doubles their margin at least and makes them *highly* attractive IMO


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## Aargh! (7 August 2008)

Big turnover today. I hope the selling pressure has now gone and we can get back to where we were a few weeks ago. I hesitantly bought a sizeable chunk yesterday.


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## Aargh! (7 August 2008)

Ok so on further inspection it appears nearly 13 of the 17 million traded was a single cross trade...

12:02:24 PM	0.355	12,921,839	4,587,252.85	XTOS

At $0.355 its well below the $0.38 trades that surrounded it... Anyone care to fill me in?


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## Real1ty (7 August 2008)

jonojpsg said:


> Honestly, I can't see how you could follow the chart to the point where you say it would tank
> 
> If the company is producing 4000bopd and looking to add another 2000bopd by years end, then even if POO hits $80 say, the company would still be making what 6000x$20x365 = $44 million profit (assuming a cost of production of $60pb which would be high I would think?).
> 
> That gives them a PE of about 6 at current MC.  Can't see that even with bear market pushing SP lower that the fundamentals will allow SP to go below 35, and if oil stabilises above $100 then that doubles their margin at least and makes them *highly* attractive IMO




You have to remember that CVN doesn't get spot price for it's Oil due to the quality and sells it at a discount.

I don't believe the current sell off is based on fundamentals at all but of course i have no facts to back this up with.


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## jonnie (7 August 2008)

Apparently CVN got a buy recco from a broker this am with a target of 87 cents. Cant remember which broker.


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## enigmatic (7 August 2008)

Can we have information as to which broker. Otherwise it may come across like your suggesting CVN is worth 87c with out any reason.


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## MS+Tradesim (7 August 2008)

enigmatic said:


> Can we have information as to which broker. Otherwise it may come across like your suggesting CVN is worth 87c with out any reason.




In post #747 Grace quotes Bell Potters giving CVN a target of 87c. And for some time Hartley's have had a target of $1.15.


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## Rob 17 (7 August 2008)

Aargh! said:


> Ok so on further inspection it appears nearly 13 of the 17 million traded was a single cross trade...
> 
> 12:02:24 PM	0.355	12,921,839	4,587,252.85	XTOS
> 
> At $0.355 its well below the $0.38 trades that surrounded it... Anyone care to fill me in?




I think it means when a large institute wants to get out they find someone thats willing to take the shares off their hands instead of dumping them on the market.  When your buying that many shares i guess a discount makes it a but more attractive.

Lets hope its JP Morgan Chase & Co and its affiliates selling  the rest of their holdings. 

Im glad they dont manage my money. 

DYOR   Do your Own Research.


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## tr0pp0 (8 August 2008)

anyone got thoughts on the double bottoms at 0.36 spanning over 6 months (22 Jan 08 and 06 Aug 08).

i have read double bottoms can signal a trend reversal and you can expect a run of 200 percent of the previous range.  that's a forecast of $1.23


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## Garpal Gumnut (8 August 2008)

Rob 17 said:


> The last time CVN was .65 was around the 20th of june 2008. On the 2nd of July 2008  u posted u "were still bullish on it".  ???????
> 
> I never take comments for more than they are worth but its just interesting.
> 
> DYOR




Sorry was out at .45, a typo! ,  in retrospect,  not a good move , or maybe was, if it moves sideways and breaks out on the upside , I'll climb on again, I was bullish until it started breaking down.

I agree comments are worth sba. Its money that does the talking.

gg


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## grace (11 August 2008)

Garpal Gumnut said:


> Sorry was out at .45, a typo! ,  in retrospect,  not a good move , or maybe was, if it moves sideways and breaks out on the upside , I'll climb on again, I was bullish until it started breaking down.
> 
> I agree comments are worth sba. Its money that does the talking.
> 
> gg




Big Ted is buying more.  He seems to be the only one at the moment.
Glad I have faith in him.  Oil coming off the boil, but suspect that is only a short-term thing IMO.


----------



## JTLP (11 August 2008)

Just did a quick count from our last ann...drilling to have been completed in 10 and 14 days respectively or the 2 wells. We are now into day 18 and no sign of an ann on marketwire.

Hopefully it is positive because CVN continues to look weak. We may have seen the last of the JP shares dished out today with some larger then usual volume and a hefty 4 mil trade.

Oil price firming tonight...let's hope it can settle in the 120's 

Keep buying up ted...you will either go down as a legend or the biggest idiot in history (but with all those years in the oil industry...ahhh you decide )


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## JTLP (12 August 2008)

MORE MORE MORE!!!

TEDDY!

Good to see teddy still buying more at these prices...let's see if we can get some rallying behind him from other directors. Could this be an indirect route of increase top 20 holdings from all (even though they are relatively small parcels being purchased).

CVN is looking very wobbly now...dipping as low as 35 cents to rest on 36. Oil is getting hammered lately but I didn't think CVN would cop this much brunt.

I guess the timing of JP's exit was the worst thing to happen to holders


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## pulonium (13 August 2008)

> 13 August 2008
> 
> THAILAND OPERATIONS UPDATE
> 
> ...




Can someone with the smarts please explain what this means? No apparent reaction from the market either way, so i'm guessing it's neither here nor there.


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## MS+Tradesim (13 August 2008)

pulonium said:


> Can someone with the smarts please explain what this means? No apparent reaction from the market either way, so i'm guessing it's neither here nor there.





Seems to be another fill-in-the-blanks announcement in order to calm the selling. They did this a few announcements ago. Big time lag between real anns. so stick out something to try and stabilise the s.p. Hasn't helped.


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## pulonium (13 August 2008)

thanks MS, was thinking it was along those lines, I was just a little unsure on what all the mud/water/gas/volcanic/fluid loss etc type stuff meant!


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## MS+Tradesim (13 August 2008)

The drilling fluid loss refers to a highly fractured (think highly porous, channels, wide cracks) section of the geology where the drilling fluid simply runs out into the cracks instead of staying in the drilling hole where it should be. High fluid loss in previous wells has often (but not always) meant larger oil flows. There is a good chance (but not 100% certain) that this will be the case in well NSE-A4 as it is a development well into the main section of the Na Sanun east reservoir.

The L-44C with oil shows and elevated mud gas readings means there are hydrocarbons present but it won't be known if it's commercial until the testing is finished.

You can find out more about oil shows and mud gas on the net. Here's a google book with some info:

http://books.google.com.au/books?id...=X&oi=book_result&resnum=4&ct=result#PPA64,M1


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## Pigsy (13 August 2008)

Down below 0.345 today breaking the 0.355 support. Likely to test the 0.285 support now.  Fuel price low .... gets hammered ..... fuel price high ..... get hammered. No winning with this one.


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## grace (13 August 2008)

For those living on the other side of the country, Ted is talking at a conference in Freemantle.  Would be nice to attend if it was a little closer.

http://www.riuconferences.com.au/conferences/tgoc/forms/Programme.pdf

2 - 3 September,   Good Oil Conference.  Ted speaks on 2/9/08.

I notice a few of my coal seam gas favs are there too.


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## JTLP (13 August 2008)

mmm...that ann was just a market soother...and it got smashed on it!

I was hoping to see some more director interest notice's. SOMETHING!

The only thing that can turn CVN around now is an increase in oil $$$ and maybe some big buying from an insto (so long as they hold on to them )

I'm holding but ergh (first time i've used banghead too!)

JTLP


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## doogie_goes_off (14 August 2008)

MS+Trade Sim – It’s definitely not a just fill in the blanks, it’s a “here’s an update, we don’t have results yet because we can’t work miracles. Exploration is not drill and oil spouts out of the ground, it’s hard yards and trying to tame one of natures hardest task masters (the crust of planet earth). It is a real announcement that tells us “don’t write off the current exploration it’s still promising”, which may lead us to assume it was just a market soother, however I like to think CVN and a couple of other downward resource companies I hold are more genuine and are keeping the market abreast of any development, not just the headlines which can mask substance anyway. I am now more confident from the feel of the results (not a certainty, so the prediction is hollow DYOR) that we are in for 200-600 barrels of oil net to CVN in the next 3 weeks. I have grabbed a couple more at this largely discounted SP due to Oil price sentiment being sh*te.
If the market will not stabilise then this is a buying opportunity for me! High fluid loss = potential for NSE-A4 to produce a substantial flow. L44-C is still a bit too thin on detail, so someone else can ‘fill in the blanks’ if they would like to speculate further, but I do guess low flow.


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## grace (17 August 2008)

Here is the latest Bell Potter report, and I'm not sure if it has been posted here yet.

Notice that it is trading on a p/e ratio of 5.7 for 09 earnings, and 4 for 2010 earnings.

http://www.carnarvonpetroleum.com/docs/Patersons170706.pdf


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## Garpal Gumnut (17 August 2008)

There has been a significant technical change in cvn over the recent past trading days. I have decided to go back in at .37 and below are my reasons.

There is now a divergence between the price and the rsi on large volume indicating that the big money is coming back in to cvn. 

I expect it to trade sideways or move up considerably in the next few weeks.

Any retracement to under .33 would be reason for me to reconsider.

gg


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## money maker (19 August 2008)

http://www.moneymorning.com.au/20080819/a-new-trend-at-carnarvon.html#more-644

Interesting article today re CVN for those interested


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## Garpal Gumnut (23 August 2008)

Garpal Gumnut said:


> There has been a significant technical change in cvn over the recent past trading days. I have decided to go back in at .37 and below are my reasons.
> 
> There is now a divergence between the price and the rsi on large volume indicating that the big money is coming back in to cvn.
> 
> ...




A very nice bounce off .345

Lets see if it continues to make higher highs and higher lows, to commence a new upward trend.

gg


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## doogie_goes_off (25 August 2008)

Yep GG, see my postr on "Potential trend reversals". I think now that 44c will become the new support.


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## Go Nuke (25 August 2008)

Id have said 43c as support and 48.5c as resistance in the short term.

Though 44c is a 61.8% fib retracement.

Across over above the 200 day MA would be better to see though


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## 1234 (27 August 2008)

Well it looks like news must be on the horizon tonight..

Volume spike, some good daily increases in SP to follow.

Glad to see common sense returning, instead of the relentless sell dows of late..


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## Go Nuke (27 August 2008)

Well ive picked it like a dirty nose so far:nuts:

48.5c acting as resistance.
If there is some news coming and its good we should see this easily push through 48.5c.

I base this of the current amount of buyer vs sellers and also the hurricane that is bareing down on the Gulf of Mexico.

If it looks like threatening oil production, we could see a spike in oil prices.

Good new could see this run to between 52.5c and up to 58c imo depending on the news of course

There is a gap to be filled up to 60.5c also

7day MA crossing over the 21day MA and the sp getting close to trading over the 50 day MA.


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## 1234 (27 August 2008)

Director sold today... Hmm, same Director who sold just prior to SP heading south a few months ago.

*IF* the ann is no good tonight, he SHOULD go for insider trading, and should be sacked - or thrown off the board.. It could be reverse psycology, Teddy having a word in his ear?? Who knows. I watch with baited breath all the gains of the last week fly out the doors in there millions.


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## JTLP (27 August 2008)

CVN has been consistently gapping up for the last week...with rising volume as well. I suspect we may have some substantial buying happening...hopefully a nice co that will stay and not dump them all.

The HSBC dump happened yesty arvo...they would be pretty keen to dump now...a few raised eyebrows perhaps?

What do you make of the volume GG? Noticing any signs?

Thanks also for the updates Nukey Boy


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## Garpal Gumnut (27 August 2008)

doogie_goes_off said:


> Yep GG, see my postr on "Potential trend reversals". I think now that 44c will become the new support.






JTLP said:


> CVN has been consistently gapping up for the last week...with rising volume as well. I suspect we may have some substantial buying happening...hopefully a nice co that will stay and not dump them all.
> 
> The HSBC dump happened yesty arvo...they would be pretty keen to dump now...a few raised eyebrows perhaps?
> 
> ...




Looking at the charts I see resistance at 50c. There is increased volume today but it closed closer to the low on higher volume.

It may retrace, but I'm confident it will challenge 50c, if it goes beyond then who knows.

I still have the same ****load of cvn having sold at 45 and bought back in at 37.

gg


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## JTLP (27 August 2008)

Thanks GG,

I feel the same about 50. Provided we get flows we should be able to easily surpass this...and hopefully this will enact as some sort of future support.

I would like to see some consolidation in the mid 50's though...incase the world does fall over and we have a better landing point then the 30's 

BTW...has anyone had any luck with e-mailing the company? I have tried twice before but had donuts luck. I would like some more information on new blocks L52/50 & L53/50 i believe (when they will be awarded) as well as some info on the expansion in S.E Asia.


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## doogie_goes_off (28 August 2008)

"Im looking at a 54c target, it has been cheap buying in recent weeks. We may need two annoucements to see this target as there is a 'shoulder' at 50c although weaker than that at 55c, any push through 55c could see a breakout. I'm very happy to hold at the moment."

My quote from the other thread.

I think we all see the same level of concern at 50c, needs positive news to break this, could be the new support if it does so and I still stand by '2 announcements could push through resistance level at 55c then a breakout would be likely'


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## Rob_ee (28 August 2008)

Don't hold your breath about good report guys.

The fact that a director dumped a million on the market just as the price was going up nicely to 48-50c range, and so destroyed any further short term advancement suggests to me that the ann will be average only.

He would have to be the biggest idiot (appart from selling sub 45) a day or so before any announcement since obvious insider trading would apply.

Also a stellar ann would surely caused him to restrain himself and get a much better price on the inevitable spike.

Lets face it .. the inside men know what will be contained in the imminent release well before us mere investors.

The only hope is that he was desperately short of money for whatever reason and had to sell.

As usual CVN is late in releasing as they always are .. still I hold for the long term.
It defies logic and belief that a cashed up company producing 5000 bopd can be trading at these sub 50c prices.

Rob


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## Johntf (28 August 2008)

I think CVN should be queried about what's going on, given what happened after the same Director's 1.5 million sale in May, and now he's stopped recovery in its tracks.  I've emailed CVN on this matter but no response. 
If bad news comes out soon I hope holders kick up a fuss and not just accept being treated with disdain. Maybe it's just margin calls but until he's stopped selling we are up the proverbial creek with this.


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## 1234 (28 August 2008)

Hmm. I'm in two minds on the sell order.

That Ted bought, more than once in the low to mid 30's was promising. That showed some comfort in this market..
To have a mil dumped shortly after confuses the matter, and gets me double guessing myself - and the market.. I even consider this a ploy - taking the predictability and manipulation out of the stock from the Seagull traders... Shaking the apples from the tree, maybe.. .. If it comes off - nice work CVN.


I'm still in for another 6-12 and will take what comes when I find it time to get out - made that decision long ago, just have to give them a chance to do what they said they would..... They haven't let us down yet..


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## Riles (28 August 2008)

I'm not concerned with the director selling right now. It seems a logical time if he has a good enough reason - at least he didn't sell on the way down recently as that could have sparked capitulation. He waited for a bounce and sold into the buying - fair enough.

I'm not sure that the SP is as announcement driven as it used to be nowadays anyway.
There's the inevitable build up pre ann but there's no telling which way this will go even after a good result.
Take a look at the last 2 results posted after the price had already come right back to 50c...






The first result was exceptional in that they were drilling in a new location targeting the main zone when they intercepted yet another new zone and put this on production at 1245bopd.

Then the followup ann saw the second hole from the same drillpad tap into the main zone and is producing 2250bopd.

Two outstanding results confirming the prolific nature of the reserves in the area - and yet the SP went down further! 
It seems we can blame JPMorgan's unwinding at the time as the catalyst for the slide and their selling swamped the buyers who were getting stopped out every other day. Along with a falling oil price and negative market sentiment those 2 ann's were virtually redundant.

Now we wait for results from the 3rd leg from this drillpad - and another look at Wichian Buri.
I think it's fair to say the market is hoping for a good ann.
This time we have an uptrend preceding it. We may see a small selloff regardless of the results but I wouldn't expect it to last. 
Conditions seem to have changed for now - no more overhang from major seller, oil has found it's feet as has the market, and the SP is going back up from oversold.
We've already had our 2 good anns which would have put a floor under the price around 50c.

If they can get 3 for 3 from this multiwell pad then that will be spectacular, but the fact they are already producing around 3500bopd from it is enough assurance for me.


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## MS+Tradesim (29 August 2008)

Can't be bothered posting a chart...

IMO, last 3 days indicate a top from a VSA perspective (maybe only short-term), lower highs, later intra-day selloffs and weak closes. A good announcement  could easily counteract this, but IMO, current short term outlook seems weak. One positive is yesterday and today is lower volume so may just be short-term traders jumping out on resistance, making it IMO less probable that a sustained fall in sp will occur. I don't set targets so I won't predict where I think it might go from here. Just without good news, I don't think this rally will extend. Would love to be wrong.


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## Motogoon (10 September 2008)

Anyone think theres of a chance of recovery, they're making decent money aren't they?

Fat prophets were still recommending to buy when sp was up around 70-80 mark. Cocked that up didn't they.

I'm about ready to get out of this one, the whole sharemarket altogether actually!!


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## WRONG'UN (10 September 2008)

Nice call, MS + Tradesim
Looks like it is heading for a retest of 34.5c, coincident will oil testing $US100.
There are also currency considerations. On one hand, the drop in the $A will have mitigated the drop in the $US oil price. On the other, foreign investors who are not currency hedged could be dumping $A investments.
I guess the fundamentals will eventually prevail, but anything can happen in the meantime. Good money management is essential if you don't want to lose your shirt!


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## 1234 (11 September 2008)

Motogoon said:


> Anyone think theres of a chance of recovery, they're making decent money aren't they?
> 
> Fat prophets were still recommending to buy when sp was up around 70-80 mark. Cocked that up didn't they.
> 
> I'm about ready to get out of this one, the whole sharemarket altogether actually!!




Making money isn't the issue. There's plenty of that..!

Satisfying the result driven market is, especially now..


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## Motogoon (11 September 2008)

1234 said:


> Director sold today... Hmm, same Director who sold just prior to SP heading south a few months ago.
> 
> *IF* the ann is no good tonight, he SHOULD go for insider trading, and should be sacked - or thrown off the board.. It could be reverse psycology, Teddy having a word in his ear?? Who knows. I watch with baited breath all the gains of the last week fly out the doors in there millions.




No bad news came but he seems to have known to jump ship before the price plunged again. Does seem a bit dodgy.


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## camtech (12 September 2008)

If the stock doesn’t turn around in the next few days, we could see it below the 30cent mark. Any lower then this means cvn could be in trouble.


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## skunkmonkey (12 September 2008)

I don't think it is so much that CVN might be in trouble, rather the market is down in general.  All the miners and oil stocks have taken a hit and each slip a little more each day.


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## Garpal Gumnut (12 September 2008)

skunkmonkey said:


> I don't think it is so much that CVN might be in trouble, rather the market is down in general.  All the miners and oil stocks have taken a hit and each slip a little more each day.




I don't agree.

Director selling.

Price down to old support/resistance.

I'm out on open on Monday.

gg


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## camtech (12 September 2008)

I’m with you Garpal, I can’t see the stock turning around. I brought in at .44cents and some idiot director sells he’s shares. I wouldn’t be surprised if cvn hits the 20cent mark. Also being below the 200 moving average, not looking good.


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## grace (12 September 2008)

camtech said:


> I’m with you Garpal, I can’t see the stock turning around. I brought in at .44cents and some idiot director sells he’s shares. I wouldn’t be surprised if cvn hits the 20cent mark. Also being below the 200 moving average, not looking good.




Chart doesn't look good I must admit.  However, plenty of results is due, or is that overdue.  Two new wells have been spudded, awaiting testing.

Ted has been buying shares (although not as much as Judge has been dumping).

If I dump too, I can tell you what is going to happen!    It will go up!


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## Garpal Gumnut (12 September 2008)

grace said:


> Chart doesn't look good I must admit.  However, plenty of results is due, or is that overdue.  Two new wells have been spudded, awaiting testing.
> 
> Ted has been buying shares (although not as much as Judge has been dumping).
> 
> If I dump too, I can tell you what is going to happen!    It will go up!




It won't mate.

follow your gut feelings.

ignore below 

fee fi fo fum i now have one hundred characters

gg


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## 1234 (13 September 2008)

Garpal Gumnut said:


> It won't mate.
> 
> follow your gut feelings.
> 
> ...




One could say follow your gut feeling for getting into CVN in the first place??

Fee fi fo fum you will regret if you dump this one.

lol.. as u will gg, do as u will. I've still got some skin left on my teeth..


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## Motogoon (13 September 2008)

I'm with you 1234, i'm definately noy getting rid of mine. I heartily believe in CVN. 

Every broker report i've read believes they're trading at a significant discount to what they're worth even if oil dropped & stayed below $100. They can't all be wrong.

The director who sold has something like 14 mil shares doesn't he? so selling a mil is not necessarily an indication of something wrong, surely he'd sell more than 7-8% of his holdings if that was the case.

Theres always going to be an arguement over fundamentals vs t/a, & with the market at the moment i think t/a is winning, everyone is so scared they see something bad on the charts & bam they're outta there!

So there is a chance the price could drop further but i truly believe the fundamentals will prevail on this one.


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## skunkmonkey (16 September 2008)

$0.28 today post the Lehman Brothers collapse etc.  Ouch!    That hurts.  I'll have to buy more.                                                                        .


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## camtech (16 September 2008)

skunkmonkey said:


> $0.28 today post the Lehman Brothers collapse etc.  Ouch!    That hurts.  I'll have to buy more.                                                                        .




I be waiting when they go below the .20cent mark to buy more, between 15 and 20 cents will be the new support


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## Motogoon (16 September 2008)

Yeh i'd buy more now if i had some spare money!

Massive slap in the face all round today, one of my others was down 15% at one stage today.


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## lazyfish (16 September 2008)

Gosh I never thought CVN could fall below 30 cents again, I guess my patience is finally rewarded. I waited nearly one year to get a parcel.


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## allaboutprofits (22 September 2008)

Pan Orient, Thailand: NSE-A2 and NSE-B2 Test at Combined 3,480 BOPD

CALGARY, ALBERTA--(Marketwire - Sept. 22, 2008) - Pan Orient Energy Corp. (TSX VENTUREOE) -

NOT FOR DISSEMINATION TO U.S. NEWSWIRE SERVICES OR FOR DISSEMINATION IN THE UNITED STATES.

The NSE-A2 and NSE-B2 wells are free flowing oil from the main volcanic reservoir within the NSE central fault compartment at a combined stabilized rate of approximately 3,480 gross barrels of oil per day (2,088 net to Pan Orient) with less than 0.1-per-cent water cut.

NSE-B2 appraisal well (60-per-cent working interest and operator)

The NSE-B2 appraisal well was drilled approximately 80 meters due west of the NSE-B drill pad encountering the top of the main volcanic reservoir at a depth of 782 meters true vertical depth ("TVD"). A total measured thickness of 75 meters of volcanic reservoir was penetrated with mud losses of 156 bbls and oil shows observed while drilling the reservoir section.

The well tested at a stabilized rate of 1,340 bopd with a less than 0.1% water cut. Flowing casing head and tubing head pressures were both 75 psig respectively on 32/64" choke settings. Upon completion of the drilling of B2, the rig was immediately skidded over onto the B1 location to deepen this well.

NSE-A2 appraisal well (60-per-cent working interest and operator)

The NSE-A2 appraisal well was drilled approximately 350 meters south of the NSE-A drill pad encountering the top of the main volcanic reservoir at a depth of 757 meters TVD. A total measured thickness of 114 meters of volcanic reservoir was penetrated with mud losses of 283 bbls and oil shows observed while drilling the reservoir section.

The well tested at a stabilized rate of 2,140 bopd with a less than 0.1% water cut. Flowing casing head and tubing head pressures were 115 and 78 psig respectively both on 36/64" choke settings. Upon completion of the drilling of A2, the rig was immediately skidded over onto the A4 location to deepen this well.

NSE-A4 appraisal well (60-per-cent working interest and operator)

The NSE-A4 appraisal well was initially drilled to a total measured depth of 923 meters (732.6 meters TVD), penetrating the top of the upper volcanic target at a depth of 720.5 meters TVD at a location approximately 350 metres northeast of the NSE-A1 surface location. A 35-metre-thick (measured thickness) upper volcanic section was penetrated and, as indicated by the loss of over 23,000 barrels of drilling fluid, was highly fractured. Testing resulted in the recovery of 100% gas from what is interpreted as a small (less than 1 square kilometer), and thin (approximately 10 meter) gas cap at this structurally high position. The well has since been deepened into the underlying oil leg of the main volcanic target and is currently drilling ahead within volcanics at a depth of 738m TVD and experiencing massive 500+ bbl/hr drilling fluid losses with no indication of gas (below an interpreted gas/oil contact). Total depth is anticipated to be reached within the next 72 hours, with testing to take place shortly thereafter.

NSE-B1 appraisal well (60-per-cent working interest and operator)

The NSE-B1 appraisal well encountered the top of the main volcanic target at a depth of 713 meters TVD, with drilling suspended after penetrating only 8 meters of what was originally interpreted to be the upper volcanic zone. The decision was made to conduct an isolated test of this very thin section prior to drilling ahead, which resulted in gas and oil being tested at unstabilized rates.

The well was deepened and is currently logging after reaching a total depth of approximately 822 meters measured depth at a subsurface location approximately 100 meters south of the NSE-B drilling pad and across a large fault and at the ultimate crest of the NSE central fault compartment. Approximately 87 meters of total volcanic section has been drilled and severe drilling fluid losses of over 240 bbls per hour were observed along with oil shows. Logging is anticipated to be completed in the next 48 hours, at which time testing over the entire 87 meter volcanic interval will commence.

L44-C appraisal well (60-per-cent working interest and operator)

The L44-C vertical appraisal well was drilled to a depth of 1,210 metres through multizone objectives within the F and G sandstones, and a deeper 210-metre-thick WB-1 volcanic, at a location 1.15 kilometres north of the POE-6 oil discovery and at the extreme northern edge of the 3P reserve envelope within the POE-6 fault compartment. Oil shows and elevated mud gas readings were observed at a number of stratigraphic levels while drilling and lost circulation was observed over two intervals within the WB-1 deep volcanic.

Minor indications of oil and gas along with large quantities of water were observed from the uppermost interval of the WB-1 deep volcanic. Two deeper tests of the same target zone recovered only large quantities of water. The main G sand target was tight with a small sample of oil recovered at surface and a small oil sample was also recovered from the shallower F sand, which had no previous reserves assigned to it.

The well has been suspended with a side track from the existing well bore planned, before year end, into the adjacent Wichian Buri fault compartment targeting both the F and G sandstone reservoirs in addition to a volcanic target not yet tested by any well to date.

Summary

NSE development drilling results continue to be at the upper end of management expectations of between 1,000 to 2,000 bopd per well. Two wells, NSE-A4 and NSE-B1, both located in the highest crestal position of the NSE central fault compartment will be tested shortly and another five to eight wells will be drilled from the NSE C, D and E drill pads immediately after NSE-A4 and NSE-B1 wells have completed drilling. In addition to the NSE development wells, management anticipates the drilling of approximately four wells targeting the large resource base located directly adjacent to the 2P and 3P reserve category areas of the NSE field, converting these large prospective resources to reserves if successful. The drilling of a number of high impact exploration wells is also planned at Bo Rang, L44-W (adjacent to Bo Rang), L44-C sidetrack (discussed above) and Si Thep deep, as timing allows prior to year end.


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## Rob 17 (22 September 2008)

Thats great news.  Im glad i topped up last week 

NSE-A4 appraisal well sounds interesting. 

The well has since been deepened into the underlying oil leg of the main volcanic target and is currently drilling ahead within volcanics at a depth of 738m TVD and *experiencing massive 500+ bbl/hr drilling fluid losses *with no indication of gas (below an interpreted gas/oil contact). 

Well done to the people that held on. 

DYOR


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## adobee (23 September 2008)

Great news from CVN.. I havent sold any but have a bit of catching up to do to get back to my original position with buy in of 49c..  Hopefully this can get us back in the green  !! Wish I had had more confidence to but when it was really low...


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## Rob_ee (24 September 2008)

camtech said:


> I be waiting when they go below the .20cent mark to buy more, between 15 and 20 cents will be the new support




Thats very funny (picture Robie clutching his stomach with convulsive laughter)  :

Lets look at the facts ... Over $40 million in the bank and rising daily.

Producing over 5000 (yes 5000) bopd so every 2 days another $1.5 Million in sales.

Say (the worst view) after taxes etc 30c per barell to CVN which translates to $1.5 Million in profit every week.

3 drills working continously and adding yet more oil with every new report.

Good luck for your 15-20c wait .

Even in this market enviroment there is a point past which sanity must prevail before the institutions get back on board.

Its like winning lotto , even buying in the mid 30 range.

Yes I hold heaps and quite happy doing so.


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## seasprite (26 September 2008)

Excellent full year result considering net production to CVN was only at 43% of projected by the end of the year ( CVN entitled 2600 bopd at end of June with projected net 6000bopd ).


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## kenny (26 September 2008)

Well said, Rob. My sentiments (hopes?) exactly.

CVN has proven to be a real rollercoaster ride.

The taxes are always a factor unfortunately. More news soon hopefully.

Cheers,

Kenny






Rob_ee said:


> Thats very funny (picture Robie clutching his stomach with convulsive laughter)  :
> 
> Lets look at the facts ... Over $40 million in the bank and rising daily.
> 
> ...


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## seasprite (2 October 2008)

good write up about CVN , BPT HZN in the Australian Financial Review. "Analysts expect Carnarvon to achieve a profit of more than $50 million in 2008-09, representing earnings per share of about 8c"


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## skunkmonkey (2 October 2008)

Any chance you could paste in a link or the article? Cheers!


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## seasprite (2 October 2008)

I tried to attach it to my post however that did not work . It is available on the carnarvon website though. 

http://www.carnarvonpetroleum.com/


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## Rob 17 (7 October 2008)

Pan Orient, Thailand: NSE-B1 Tests at 2,650 BOPD
CALGARY, ALBERTA--(Marketwire - Oct. 7, 2008) - Pan Orient Energy Corp. (TSX VENTUREOE) - 

NOT FOR DISSEMINATION TO U.S. NEWSWIRE SERVICES OR FOR DISSEMINATION IN THE UNITED STATES.

NSE-B1 appraisal well (60-per-cent working interest and operator)

The NSE-B1 well has been drilled to a total measured depth of approximately 822 meters (approximately 713 meters TVD) at a subsurface location approximately 100 meters south of the NSE-B drilling pad and across a large fault and at the ultimate crest of the NSE central fault compartment. Approximately 87 meters of total volcanic section was drilled. 

The well tested at a stabilized rate of 2,650 bopd with a 0.1% water cut. Flowing casing head and tubing head pressures were 190 and 130 psig, respectively, on 48/64" choke settings. Upon completion of the drilling of B1, the rig was moved to the NSE-D1 drilling location. 

NSE-A4 appraisal well (60-per-cent working interest and operator)

The NSE-A4 appraisal well has reached a total depth of 787 meters TVD after penetrating the top of the target volcanic reservoir at 730 meters TVD. Severe mud losses were encountered while drilling, indicating extensive fracturing. Testing is anticipated to be completed within the next 10 days at which time test results will be announced. Upon completion of the current operation, the rig will be moved to the NSE-C1 well location which is 1,000 meters east of the NSE-B drill pad and targeting an area of possible reserves as defined in the year end 2007 NI 51-101 compliant reserves report. 

NSE-D1 appraisal well (60-per-cent working interest and operator)

The NSE-D1 appraisal well, located approximately 455 meters north of the NSE-B drill pad is currently drilling ahead at a depth of 645 meters true vertical depth. Drilling is anticipated to be completed within 10 days.

I just keep topping up


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## Rob 17 (7 October 2008)

Very interesting audio 

http://remotecontrol.jetstreammedia.com/15167

DYOR  ........... (I hold a very large parcel)


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## Riles (8 October 2008)

Very nice indeed. Another 2650 bopd puts them well over their target of 15000 (total for JV) now and still more production wells to come from this area. 

What are they going to do with all this oil?? They can only get 15000 bopd to the refinery so they may have to cut back on some production at this rate.
A nice position to be in! 2P reserves getting bolstered which the analysts will like.

Heaps of cash flowing in to CVN now. Exploration wells commencing soon in Si Thep and Bo Rang and Wichian Buri with high impact/large upside potential.

Jeff Chisholm (POE CEO) sounds very confident of proving up these other areas.Could be in for another exciting year ahead -  with the benefit of all that income already flowing in daily. And yet the SP is the same as it was this time last year when they only had about 400 bopd!


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## MS+Tradesim (8 October 2008)

Yep, it's a great position for CVN to be in. No debt, rising production, rising cash at bank (even with falling POO - lol, no pun intended!). Unfortunately, the reality is that rationality is not a feature of the markets and while the fear and panic grip markets worldwide, CVN's sp does not even remotely reflect intrinisc value.


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## JTLP (8 October 2008)

Fantastic news...CVN had me depressed at such low prices...but wow...she is just one hot hot hot beast. We have now achieved the goals of production...perhaps they are thinking of expanding capacity somehow???

Maybe now CVN has proved that they can meet/exceed targets and expectations...we might get some stability on the SP and even an insto or 2 *that will hang around!*

Also good news should be that as this well is out of the other area...taxes will not be huge...bonus!

Lots of drilling and testing left for 2008 as well as Australian projects and hopefully some EXPANSIONS! 

More comfortable then ever holding CVN...love her.


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## Riles (8 October 2008)

JTLP said:


> Also good news should be that as this well is out of the other area...taxes will not be huge...bonus!




Hate to break it to you but this well is in the "central NSE fault compartment". So no tax relief here unfortunately.


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## JTLP (8 October 2008)

Ahh schweppes...sorry i didnt read it properly peeps...all this partying in foreign lands...thanks for the correction!

Why hasnt it been released to mkt yet?


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## Squawkbox (8 October 2008)

Anyone taken into account the extremely unstable and worsening social problems in Thailand?  It seems to me that there are too many eggs in one basket here.


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## mrgroundwork (8 October 2008)

there is a bit of discounting for sovereign risk, but the thais are smart... unlike some asian countries they seem to have a good awareness of how important foreign investment, tourism etc is to their country... i cant see them taking back any permits or anything like that... even if there is some civil unrest, i cant see it affecting CVN too much... thailands military are pretty strong too, should be able to keep things under control...

however it does raise a good point about diversification... with all this extra cash rolling in and very depressed asset values, perhaps it is time to look at buying into another project/company in a different geographic region?

otherwise what do you do with the cash? dividend time? capital return? throw a an all expenses paid full moon party for all shareholders?


----------



## Shrewd Crude (12 October 2008)

Yes, high soverign risk discounting projects, and markets crashing...
This stock should be over $1 right now (based on expected, and current revenues)... 15,000 BOPD is very big....
heres an article that is a few weeks old...
I very much so like CVN...

Thai PM consults king over escalating protests
BANGKOK (AFP) ”” Thai Prime Minister Samak Sundaravej consulted the king over escalating protests Saturday, after demonstrators forced Phuket's airport to close indefinitely in their drive to force the premier from office.
With his government offices besieged for a fifth day by a 15,000-strong protest rally, Samak left Bangkok vowing not to bow to the their demands.
"I want to reassure the public that I will continue to carry on in my job. I will not surrender, I will not quit," he told an audience at a prearranged event on national reconciliation.
Supporters of the so-called People's Alliance for Democracy (PAD) have been squatting in the grounds of Government House since Tuesday, with 45 of their guards breaking into the now-empty main office building briefly on Saturday before their leaders told them to retreat.
Since Tuesday Samak Sundaravej has worked out of defence complexes, including the military headquarters and the defence ministry.
The PAD expanded their campaign across the country on Friday, forcing the closure of three regional airports, provoking railway strikes and clashing with riot police in Bangkok.
The group's founder, media tycoon Sondhi Limthongkul, told reporters the protests would continue.
"PAD members have agreed not to give up. Since they (Samak's party) took power in the election, they are trying to manipulate politics and interfere in the justice system," Sondhi said.
After skirmishes with police on Friday caused minor injuries and rattled nerves in the coup-prone kingdom, Samak flew to the king's residence in the nearby town of Hua Hin, returning to Bangkok Saturday morning.
He flew again to Hua Hin Saturday afternoon for a prearranged audience with the king, but said nothing to reporters on his return to Bangkok at 8:00 pm (1300 GMT).
The PAD protesters accuse Samak of acting as a puppet for ousted premier Thaksin Shinawatra, who they helped topple in 2006.
The PAD rails against popular democracy, saying it has encouraged corruption, and has openly called for the palace, the military and Thailand's traditional elite to take a greater role in politics.
Although the demonstrators regularly invoke the king, both in speeches and with royalist imagery, he has remained silent in the current standoff.
The king has little formal political power, but he holds enormous sway over his subjects and has acted as a referee during past political crises in his six decades on the throne.
Airports in the holiday resort of Phuket and two other southern towns were closed on Friday as protesters marched on them.
One small airport reopened Saturday, but 15,000 passengers remain stranded on Phuket, with its airport now shut indefinitely, the airport's director Wicha Nurnlop told reporters.
About one quarter of Thailand's rail services have also been halted since Friday, after nearly 250 drivers and mechanics called in sick to support the protests.
PAD protesters have been demonstrating against Samak since May, but they stepped up their movement on Tuesday by storming a TV station and the Government House grounds.
The turmoil has raised fears of a new coup in a country that has seen 18 military takeovers since the end of absolute monarchy in 1932.
The powerful army chief, General Anupong Paojinda, has so far insisted that the military will not return to the streets.
Hoping to defuse the crisis, Samak has called for an emergency parliamentary debate on Sunday, but has refused to step down or call new elections.

.^sc


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## Garpal Gumnut (13 October 2008)

Riles said:


> Hate to break it to you but this well is in the "central NSE fault compartment". So no tax relief here unfortunately.






JTLP said:


> Ahh schweppes...sorry i didnt read it properly peeps...all this partying in foreign lands...thanks for the correction!
> 
> Why hasnt it been released to mkt yet?






Squawkbox said:


> Anyone taken into account the extremely unstable and worsening social problems in Thailand?  It seems to me that there are too many eggs in one basket here.






mrgroundwork said:


> there is a bit of discounting for sovereign risk, but the thais are smart... unlike some asian countries they seem to have a good awareness of how important foreign investment, tourism etc is to their country... i cant see them taking back any permits or anything like that... even if there is some civil unrest, i cant see it affecting CVN too much... thailands military are pretty strong too, should be able to keep things under control...
> 
> however it does raise a good point about diversification... with all this extra cash rolling in and very depressed asset values, perhaps it is time to look at buying into another project/company in a different geographic region?
> 
> otherwise what do you do with the cash? dividend time? capital return? throw a an all expenses paid full moon party for all shareholders?






Shrewd Crude said:


> Yes, high soverign risk discounting projects, and markets crashing...
> This stock should be over $1 right now (based on expected, and current revenues)... 15,000 BOPD is very big....
> heres an article that is a few weeks old...
> I very much so like CVN...




Technically CVN looks set for a big fall through present support. 

A descending triangle and a failure of buyers at recent lows does not auger well.

gg


----------



## JTLP (13 October 2008)

Quite a big volume for CVN today and with Oil dropping off quite a lot im glad she held firm.

GG if she did fall through I ´d have to put the money where my mouth is and scoop a mil up...hopefully and insto picks up 330mil


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## Motogoon (15 October 2008)

Garpal Gumnut said:


> Technically CVN looks set for a big fall through present support.
> 
> A descending triangle and a failure of buyers at recent lows does not auger well.
> 
> gg




Oh awesome, just what people need at the present, someone predicting more doom & gloom.

Forgive me if i don't put too much faith in that chart, i seem to recall one posted a while ago by yourself predicting something like a $1.30?

No buyers at the present you say, well its not just cvn suffering from that, you could say that about just about everything.

i'm not saying it may not happen though because the way the markets are it seems like just about anything could happen to a good stock, however i think predicting a rise or fall in the current enviroment is about a 50/50 call.


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## seasprite (15 October 2008)

By my records over the last few months the market has been flooded with a sell down by HSBC of 6.7m shares , Citicorp nominess 4m , ANZ nominees 1m and National nominees 0.8m and then of course individual investors driving the price down with fear.

Lately ANZ nominees has however increased their holdings by 1.8m and National nominees have bought back their 0.8m

Good news is JP Morgan have been mopping up increasing their holdings by 4.6m shares. 
I would have to go back through previous announcements but from memory the majority of JP Morgans 34m shares were bought for 0.55c and 0.75c so they obviously see value.


----------



## jonojpsg (15 October 2008)

Seriously though, it's pretty hard not to see value at this price.  With the amount of money they have flowing in at what, 6000bopd, what are their costs per barrel, couldn't be more than $30-$40?  That means even at $75, they are making about $75m a year.  If they were to pay 50% out as dividends which would still leave them with oodles to explore/develop, that would give about a 5c divvie or about 18%!!!!!

Now that looks like value!


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## Trader Paul (20 October 2008)

Hi folks,

CVN ... expecting one positive time cycle, in the week ahead ... 

Updated CVN chart attached, below.

have a great day

paul



=====


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## seasprite (21 October 2008)

Trader Paul said:


> Hi folks,
> 
> CVN ... expecting one positive time cycle, in the week ahead ...
> 
> ...




You got to be kidding if you believe that mumbo jumbo. That's right up there with the Big Mac Index.
I prefer to go on 1) they have plenty of cash on hand
                       2) they are on target to 6000 bopd net by xmas
                       3) like many stocks they were oversold
                       4) L20/50 has known hydrocarbons
                       5) the oil price is on it's way up prior to OPEC's  announcement this week.


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## Riles (22 October 2008)

Trader Paul said:


> Hi folks,
> 
> CVN ... expecting one positive time cycle, in the week ahead ...
> 
> ...




TP can you explain what we're looking for in your chart?
I can only see an elipse positioned over the chart - what's the relevance and how do you summize that we should get a positive time cycle from it next week?


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## Labrat (29 October 2008)

CALGARY, ALBERTA--(Marketwire - Oct. 28, 2008) - Pan Orient Energy Corp. (TSX VENTUREOE) - 

NOT FOR DISSEMINATION TO U.S. NEWSWIRE SERVICES OR FOR DISSEMINATION IN THE UNITED STATES.

NSE-D1 appraisal well (60-per-cent working interest and operator)

The NSE-D1 appraisal well, located approximately 455 meters north of the NSE-B drill pad is currently on a production at a rate of approximately 710 bopd with a 0.1 to 0.3% water cut. The well is producing within the limits of the current pump configuration with a fluid level at approximately 205 meters below ground level suggesting the well can be produced at a higher rate. A larger capacity tubing pump will be installed once it has cleared Thai customs later this week.

NSE-A4 appraisal well (60-per-cent working interest and operator)

The NSE-A4 appraisal well had originally reached a total depth of 787 meters TVD after penetrating the top of the target volcanic reservoir at 730 meters TVD. Severe mud losses were experienced while drilling, indicating the most extensively fractured reservoir section encountered in any well to date. While setting the 4.5" liner, an obstruction was encountered in the hole, just out of the casing window, making it impossible to complete the well. As a result, the 7" casing was milled out and set deeper prior to kicking off into the main volcanic target zone. This operation has now been completed. While drilling the main volcanic target severe mud losses were encountered once again, in addition to live oil to surface while reaming below the 7" casing shoe. At the present time the hole is being conditioned to set a 4.5" liner and equip the well for production.

Testing is anticipated to be completed within 10 days of setting the 4.5" liner, at which time test results will be announced. Upon completion of the current operation, the rig will be moved to the NSE-C1 well location which is 1,000 meters east of the NSE-B drill pad and targeting an area of possible reserves as defined in the year end 2007 NI 51-101 compliant reserves report.

NSE-D2 appraisal well (60-per-cent working interest and operator)

The NSE-D2 appraisal well is currently drilling ahead at depth of 810 meters measured depth (726 meters true vertical depth) near casing point, just above the estimated depth of the main volcanic objective that is expected to be encountered structurally much higher than at NSE-D1. The subsurface target is located approximately 330 meters north of the NSE-D1 location. Drilling is anticipated to be completed in the next 6 days.


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## Garpal Gumnut (29 October 2008)

Much as I have in the past been a holder and positive about cvn, the chart is now parlous, in a descending triangle with higher volumes on the lows.

We will seee 15c soon imo.

gg


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## woltage (29 October 2008)

Labrat said:


> CALGARY, ALBERTA--(Marketwire - Oct. 28, 2008) - Pan Orient Energy Corp. (TSX VENTUREOE) -
> 
> NOT FOR DISSEMINATION TO U.S. NEWSWIRE SERVICES OR FOR DISSEMINATION IN THE UNITED STATES.
> 
> ...




Could some-one tell me if severe mud losses is a good or bad thing please? mmm need 100 characters...


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## MS+Tradesim (29 October 2008)

woltage said:


> Could some-one tell me if severe mud losses is a good or bad thing please? mmm need 100 characters...




Technically, it just means it has good porosity so if oil is present it will flow easily. Off the top of my head all the good volcanic wells had severe mud losses, however some fairly mundane/non-commercial wells had the same feature.


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## seasprite (29 October 2008)

woltage said:


> Could some-one tell me if severe mud losses is a good or bad thing please? mmm need 100 characters...




from www.oglinks.com/glossary.htm

Lost circulation :
Loss quantities of whole mud to a formation, usually cavernous, fissured, or coarsely permeable beds. It is indicated by the complete or partial loss of drilling mud returns. Until the zone in which the drilling fluid has been lost is sealed off, drilling cannot be resumed in most cases.


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## seasprite (30 October 2008)

JP Morgan have steadily increased their holdings from 31.916m (29 Aug 08) to 40.845m shares (29 Oct 08) . It is also good to see ANZ nominees have returned to increase their holdings to 17.617m (29 Oct 08). 
Nil debt with 41m cash on hand end of Sept quarter , leaves CVN in a very good position to weather the storm.


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## magnale (31 October 2008)

Thank you for that  re-assuring comment  !hm ... nothing more to add but I do take note of some comments more than others ..


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## seasprite (31 October 2008)

magnale said:


> Thank you for that  re-assuring comment  !hm ... nothing more to add but I do take note of some comments more than others ..




Today's latest broker report (Hartley)  values CVN at $1.00 see www.carnarvonpetroleum.com (31/10/08)


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## eddyeagle (3 November 2008)

Anyone on these forums topping up CVN at these levels?

My train of thought is that with oil having taking a massive hit, stocks having taken a massive hit, but CVN continuing to grow and reach targets (aiming for 6000bopd by end of 2008), for the long term investor wading into the market now, the returns could be fruitful...

Thoughts?


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## seasprite (3 November 2008)

eddyeagle said:


> Anyone on these forums topping up CVN at these levels?
> 
> My train of thought is that with oil having taking a massive hit, stocks having taken a massive hit, but CVN continuing to grow and reach targets (aiming for 6000bopd by end of 2008), for the long term investor wading into the market now, the returns could be fruitful...
> 
> Thoughts?




Once the big guns are content with their holdings , I imagine we may see some good movement in the share price .


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## doogie_goes_off (3 November 2008)

Up 4c today on turnover of 4M shares, so I think any appreciation in oil price versus $AUD/$US rate should see CVN creep higher, hopefully back to 50c + days.


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## seasprite (5 November 2008)

Peter Kenneth Judge reduced holdings by 1.4m shares on 30th & 31 Oct which was announced today . The market was initially stalled by the news but then continued on it's merry way . 

 National nominees look to have taken up the slack by increasing their holdings by 3.8m to 28m and Athol Steel have steadily increased their holdings from 4.6m (29 Aug 08) to 6.8m (31/10/08) .


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## seasprite (6 November 2008)

for actual holdings of CVN top 20 refer to their website

http://www.carnarvonpetroleum.com/about_us/?pg=6


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## magnale (6 November 2008)

Thanks for your interesting  information .... very much appreciated  particularly in these uncertain times, when madness seems to have taken hold !


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## Garpal Gumnut (6 November 2008)

Technically I have always had a soft spot for cvn.

When it goes it goes, and recently it has been all down.

I have lost lots trying to pick the bottom of some good stocks but I am back in again in cvn as of yesterday buying at .33c

My reasons are a great deal of support at 25c an old resistance level in jun jul 2007.

Secondly a recent descending triangle looked as if it would take cvn below 25c, this failed and it didn't. 

Then there was an attempt again to broach 25c again which failed.

A chart is enclosed.

gg


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## Garpal Gumnut (8 November 2008)

Not much volume yesterday on the up move.

there may be some support at the 27-30c level

Lets see how it goes Monday.

gg


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## seasprite (10 November 2008)

Garpal Gumnut said:


> Not much volume yesterday on the up move.
> 
> there may be some support at the 27-30c level
> 
> ...




welcome back gg , CVN are definitely one of my top 5 picks , recession or no recession they will still be making a profit.

 Im personally expecting some news out this week on drilling results for NSE-D2 and A4. Although A4 has been a problem to drill , I only see it as good news , especially with the largest fractures encountered to date and live oil shows to service. So crossing fingers we have more good news to come.


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## seasprite (11 November 2008)

investor update release- november 11 /2008 refer website for download

http://www.carnarvonpetroleum.com


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## seasprite (11 November 2008)

CVN interest in EP 321 & EP 407 refer to video presentation at latent petroleum website
http://www.latentpet.com/video.asp


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## 1234 (13 November 2008)

It's one of those stocks GG. I agree..

I bailed out at a touch over 40 a while back.. I can't see much happening until next year as far as gains like we have seen previous.

This is all due to the drilling campaign, linked to the Thai fiscal scheme + the global debacle as it stands..

Director Judge aint helping sentiment. The sooner he sells off all he wants to the better off everyone will be.. Doesn't bode too well for investor confidence..

Good luck. .25 is a good buy, it'll test there again imo.. Ann is late and there's not too much promise in the last one the way I read it.


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## seasprite (14 November 2008)

1234 said:


> Director Judge aint helping sentiment. The sooner he sells off all he wants to the better off everyone will be.. Doesn't bode too well for investor confidence..




Mr Judge has his own reasons for selling . I would be worried if CVN wasn't performing , however as you will see in my previous posts the top 20 are increasing their holdings by multiple times of Mr Judge's reduction . I don't think director selling is the issue in this case , he just has a name for someone to quote , if all directors were doing the same then warning bells would be ringing , oil price is the main culprit in my opinion and USA's continuous crying spurts.


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## JTLP (14 November 2008)

CVN is very interesting. Volume seems to be picking up...report from intersuisse out (spec buy)...investor presentation out...hmm.

They keep making mention of new ventures in Thai and S.E Asia...but come on already...lets beef this company up.

Are there any other Aussies in thailand that might feel CVN's wrath?

Also, what happened to securing the 3rd Rig in August? Not enough drilling to go round?

Sadly on holidays so can't afford to get zi fingers dirty (not that she moves fast anyway)...

ALSO

I did like in the investor presentation the fact that they pointed out when oil was $100 AUD and the relevant SP at each time.

JTLP

Sorry about the incoherent message...


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## magnale (14 November 2008)

JTLP... I'm baffled,could you be a little more specific? "Sorry about being incoherent"...yep  that is for sure .


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## Out Too Soon (14 November 2008)

eddyeagle said:


> Anyone on these forums topping up CVN at these levels?
> 
> My train of thought is that with oil having taking a massive hit, stocks having taken a massive hit, but CVN continuing to grow and reach targets (aiming for 6000bopd by end of 2008), for the long term investor wading into the market now, the returns could be fruitful...
> 
> Thoughts?




Yes I've been topping up, but I'm still in the bottom 20 share holders not the top 20.  Doesn't help that I've been jumping in & out with the volatility I suppose.


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## Rob 17 (18 November 2008)

Pan Orient, Thailand: NSE-A4 on Production at 830 bopd

NSE-A4 appraisal well (60-per-cent working interest and operator)

The NSE-A4 appraisal well was completed and put on production at a rate of approximately 830 bopd (0.05% water cut) after a number of difficulties related to the severity of the fracturing of the main volcanic reservoir which resulted in the loss of over 64,000 barrels of drilling fluid while attempting to complete the well on three side tracks. In the final completion, the production liner was unable to be set through the reservoir section after encountering an obstruction above the reservoir interval. A drill bit was attached to the end of the production tubing and drilled through to the top of the main reservoir. This production rate is noteworthy given that oil is being produced through production tubing with a drill bit still attached to the end of the tubing.

NSE-D1 appraisal well (60-per-cent working interest and operator)

After the installation of a larger diameter tubing pump, NSE-D1 is currently producing at an increased stabilised rate of approximately 1,063 bopd with an average water cut of approximately 0.28%. The NSE-D1 appraisal well, located approximately 455 meters north of the NSE-B drill pad, was originally announced on November 7, 2008, as producing 710 bopd prior to the installation of the larger pump.

NSE-D2 appraisal well (60-per-cent working interest and operator)

The NSE-D2 appraisal well encountered the top of the main volcanic reservoir at a depth of depth of 754 meters true vertical depth (TVD) approximately 330 meters north of the NSE-D1 location. Approximately 34 meters of highly fractured volcanic reservoir was drilled, with mud losses of approximately 1,200 barrels. The well has been put on test, flowing mainly gas with some oil, indicating close proximity to an interpreted oil water contact. Rig 14 is currently moving back onto this location to drill a side track approximately 10 to 15 meters structurally lower into the oil leg, at which time testing is expected to resume.

NSE-D3 appraisal well (60-per-cent working interest and operator)

The NSE-D3 appraisal well was drilled into the main volcanic reservoir at a depth of approximately 823 meters TVD and a sub surface location approximately 315 meters north west of the NSE-D1 location. A highly fractured volcanic reservoir section was encountered that resulted in over 6,000 barrels of drilling fluid losses. An 8 meter highly fractured oil stained core was cut through the main reservoir objective. A slotted liner is currently being set through the volcanic reservoir section and testing is anticipated to commence shortly.

NSE-C1 appraisal well (60-per-cent working interest and operator)

The NSE-C1 appraisal well encountered the top of the main volcanic objective at a depth of 775 meters TVD at location 1,248 meters east of the NSE-B drill pad in area targeting possible reserves as defined in the year end 2007 NI 51-101 compliant reserves report. Lost circulation was encountered within the main volcanic target with drilling fluid losses of approximately 1,900 barrels. Testing to determine the hydrocarbon potential of the volcanic reservoir at this location is anticipated to commence shortly.


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## magnale (25 November 2008)

As I'm not a geologist, I would appreciate your views on the recent Company  information! Is it reasonably good news? Thanks


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## MS+Tradesim (25 November 2008)

The news is very good. Unfortunately, CVN seems to be stuck between the twin falls of oil price and overall market sentiment. Considering their very low production costs (around $6-7/bbl) even at current oil price levels they are still raking in money. Yet their bottom line has been discounted heavily based on what...? Overall fear? Extended recession with reduced demand for oil? Yet Thailand is a large net importer of oil so CVN will still have no problem selling their production. With their track record and sound bottom line one would expect a far healthier share price. I think it needs a catalyst but I don't know what that's going to be.


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## magnale (25 November 2008)

Thank you! I really appreciate your comments. I guess we just have to think of it as a long term buy


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## Miner (28 November 2008)

CVN published this story which with my limited knowledge on oil and gas, I thought is a great story.

Market however did not react at all . 

Could the oil experts please comment if the story could be told as good for CVN shareholders  or it was the residual effect of RED I had last night ?

Disclaimer : I now hold a very small parcel of CVN


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## MS+Tradesim (28 November 2008)

Miner said:


> Could the oil experts please comment if the story could be told as good for CVN shareholders  or it was the residual effect of RED I had last night ?




I don't currently hold but have been in and out many times. I love the CVN story but there are no shares I'm prepared to hold in this environment except for one.

I'm not an oil expert but I've followed many different oilers for years so I have a reasonable idea. CVN's story is just one good thing after another since they started hitting the fractured volcanics in Thailand. Everything is in place for it to be a sp success. They are already a success as a company though. No debt. Growing production, growing reserves. Cash at bank just keeps building. Extremely low cost producer. Plenty of exploration upside. I can only reiterate what I said previously - it's been hit by the fall in oil plus overall share market fear. IMO, it will take off again when the overall market recovers but for it to take off sooner there will need to be a catalyst. Perhaps a new major discovery or large increase to reserves when they're calculated in December (released early next year) or a new major shareholder accumulating. I think the only significant fundamental downside risk is the price of oil, but it is buffered strongly against that due to very low cost production. It really is in an enviable position.


----------



## rub92me (28 November 2008)

Miner said:


> CVN published this story which with my limited knowledge on oil and gas, I thought is a great story.
> 
> Market however did not react at all .
> 
> ...



Could be that the trouble in Thailand has increased the perception of sovereign risk perhaps? People are very skittish in the current market.


----------



## Miner (28 November 2008)

MS+Tradesim said:


> I don't currently hold but have been in and out many times. I love the CVN story but there are no shares I'm prepared to hold in this environment except for one.
> 
> I'm not an oil expert but I've followed many different oilers for years so I have a reasonable idea. CVN's story is just one good thing after another since they started hitting the fractured volcanics in Thailand. Everything is in place for it to be a sp success. They are already a success as a company though. No debt. Growing production, growing reserves. Cash at bank just keeps building. Extremely low cost producer. Plenty of exploration upside. I can only reiterate what I said previously - it's been hit by the fall in oil plus overall share market fear. IMO, it will take off again when the overall market recovers but for it to take off sooner there will need to be a catalyst. Perhaps a new major discovery or large increase to reserves when they're calculated in December (released early next year) or a new major shareholder accumulating. I think the only significant fundamental downside risk is the price of oil, but it is buffered strongly against that due to very low cost production. It really is in an enviable position.






rub92me said:


> Could be that the trouble in Thailand has increased the perception of sovereign risk perhaps? People are very skittish in the current market.




Thanks MS+Tradesim and rub92me for prompt responses.

That really makes some sense. 

How can I honestly extend the message to be within ASF rule  when short is sweet and beautiful to express my thanks


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## JTLP (28 November 2008)

Mwah!

BEAUTIFUL!

CVN are so cheeky. I am guessing the JV could easily make up the 15,000 total to make the end of year target...just proving up more reserves...fantastic news.

I thought the AGM was a really good read. CVN has a long term plan that even has the words *dividend* thrown in the mix...good thing for long term holders i guess.

There basic plan is to expand, buy out distressed assets and remain as a partner and not operator to oil ventures. They are building a quality bank account at the moment ($41m from last reports but that was awhile ago) as well as on the look out for new S.E Asia opportunities. Hoepfully getting some major institutional holders on board to shore up the shares on issue (might be tough now though)

The sovereign risk does pose a bit of a problem...i guess that's why they want to expand.

I just can't sell this sweetheart...I know you shouldn't fall in love but sheesh...they've done all the right things


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## seasprite (2 December 2008)

Hartleys Broker report increases valuation by $0.10 to $1.10 refer

http://www.carnarvonpetroleum.com  01 DEC 08.


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## Out Too Soon (2 December 2008)

seasprite said:


> Hartleys Broker report increases valuation by $0.10 to $1.10 refer
> 
> http://www.carnarvonpetroleum.com  01 DEC 08.




Patience is a virtue, especially when holding a stock like this in a market like this.
 If our dollar wasn't so wretched at the moment Thailand would be a great place for a holiday, I'm serious, I know Thailand well & as long as you avoid Bangkok & airport you'll be there in the holiday season & service will be even better & cheaper than usual because so many tourists are scared off.


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## Miner (2 December 2008)

Out Too Soon said:


> Patience is a virtue, especially when holding a stock like this in a market like this.
> If our dollar wasn't so wretched at the moment Thailand would be a great place for a holiday, I'm serious, I know Thailand well & as long as you avoid Bangkok & airport you'll be there in the holiday season & service will be even better & cheaper than usual because so many tourists are scared off.




Great comment but where is CVN here ? 

Unless you are inferring to make a huge profit from CVN and then to spend them in THailand for a full massage


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## doogie_goes_off (4 December 2008)

It would appear that everyone s still in love with CVN. Even after 2 days of downward pressure on oil prices to well below $50, there are still no signs of the big drops that have hit other junoir oilers - elk, oel, inp etc. I'm guessing time is up for CVN to drift down to 20c ish OR is it going to outperform and be the miracle stock?


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## seasprite (5 December 2008)

doogie_goes_off said:


> It would appear that everyone s still in love with CVN. Even after 2 days of downward pressure on oil prices to well below $50, there are still no signs of the big drops that have hit other junoir oilers - elk, oel, inp etc. I'm guessing time is up for CVN to drift down to 20c ish OR is it going to outperform and be the miracle stock?




Looks like the "Weekly Informer" Euroz Securities is in love with CVN as well. Refer http://www.carnarvonpetroleum.com/  4 Dec 08 announcement.


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## magnale (5 December 2008)

Yes, I 'm sure you would agree that this company will eventually do so well . When the market becomes stable, I'll increase my holdings


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## 1234 (5 December 2008)

seasprite said:


> Looks like the "Weekly Informer" Euroz Securities is in love with CVN as well. Refer http://www.carnarvonpetroleum.com/  4 Dec 08 announcement.




So how does one broking house value a stock at 0.55c upside and another the same stock at $1.10?


using up characters....................


----------



## J.B.Nimble (6 December 2008)

1234 said:


> So how does one broking house value a stock at 0.55c upside and another the same stock at $1.10?
> 
> 
> using up characters....................




Many differences in their assumptions - price of oil for one ($65/barrel vs $79.9),  exchange rate for another (0.7 vs 0.73), probably production rate, etc etc. Hartley's put value at 1.1 but (12month) price target at 0.83. All there in the fine print - best to build your own model rather than be caught out by someone else's assumptions...


----------



## Miner (6 December 2008)

1234 said:


> So how does one broking house value a stock at 0.55c upside and another the same stock at $1.10?
> 
> 
> using up characters....................




I think you have answered it 1234. The brokers make various ideological and hear say assumptions. THat is why for the same scrip (look into FN Arena or Compare Shares) five brokers would say BUY, three say HOLD and two say SELL. 

There is no science in their assumptions. Many are also pumped by the company themselves probably asking them to write good stories  in exchange of giving them some hot tips to build up their (and favoured clients) portfolio.

Many a times it is the brokers' false pride stop them to change their recommendation from BUY or HOLD whatever they said. THe result comes they reduce the price target to be safe , do not change their valuation and retain original recommendation.



J.B.Nimble said:


> Many differences in their assumptions - price of oil for one ($65/barrel vs $79.9),  exchange rate for another (0.7 vs 0.73), probably production rate, etc etc. Hartley's put value at 1.1 but (12month) price target at 0.83. All there in the fine print - best to build your own model rather than be caught out by someone else's assumptions...




Dear JB NImble 

IMO what you said 100% correct. 

But with all fairness how many investors even they have some savings or investment have the time or capability to develop their own models. In that case no newsletter would have survived. 

Normal Joe  or Mary will tend to get sucked into believing the stories or models by different analysts and burn themselves as well profit themselves.

Real sustainable winners are those as you indicated, make their own models. 

So bottom line CVN price will still be driven by confused stories from brokers but in all honesty with its good strength even some of the assumptions are wrong. 

I have been following it for about a year now and though not developed my own model but waiting to jump into it when market stabilises.


----------



## seasprite (6 December 2008)

1234 said:


> So how does one broking house value a stock at 0.55c upside and another the same stock at $1.10?
> 
> 
> using up characters....................




I try to stay away from ASF during the weekend however there is not too much to do today except drink cold beer in the sun so here I am doing both.

In a previous post on a ROC thread I have said that I personally tend to take the 2/3rds approach towards Hartleys broker reports which in this case will give a value of $0.73 from $1.10 . Euroz securities gives a value of $0.55 with upside. No matter how you look at it these valuations , they are more than twice the current share price. Which should in theory give you some comfort . 

I am not sure if the difference in valuation overshadowed your thoughts but what impressed me was the fact that CVN was the 1 and only stock recommended in the resource sector while the rest were industrial stocks. 

"Weekly Informer" readers will seriously be looking at CVN, which in the past I imagine  they would have probably overlooked , and that is sure to add meaning if the arena has been opened up to a new viewer (potential investor).


----------



## 1234 (6 December 2008)

Wow, you guys don't read too much back in the thread eh??

That was primarily a rhetorical question and partially noting to those who didn't read the link that the targets were not the same as possibly alluded to.

 I was in cvn well over 12 months ago and sold out at a bit over 40c with the sp tumbling, Director selling and the market going belly-up. (ok, I missed the market going belly up by a couple of months, I was holding & hoping - but got out before it came crashing down....)

*
My point - the value placed on a stock by those who are paid to value it is marginal, even irrelevant..... *. Sorry, if Hartleys were any good they would have said sell when the Director sold at ~73c.. But then, with the holding they have and being on the payroll that wouldn't have been koshur, would it?? 

It will trade at what it trades at. Some will read the broker reports and take notice.. These may cause +'ve fluctuations over a day or so as the newbs take a nibble. 

They (cvn) are capping production / income at 15k barrels a day. Until they have repeated success in Bo-Rang or another exploration field imo the SP aint going near the projected 'targets'.. 

Remember the only reason the sp topped 80c was because JP Morgan were taking a serious position (with good reason).. CVN has always been result/announcement driven. It trades up to an ann, then retraces back afterward. JP Morgans' buying pattern bucked that trend but since they stopped buying and started selling, the sp has gradually tumbled downward.. 



Hartley were tipping $1.00 in the raging bull market 12 months ago with half the production seen today.. POO counteracted by ex rate, double the bopd - additional tax therefore the lower (realistic) price target of 55c..... Still a good buy at anything 20-25 imo.

Cheers


----------



## Garpal Gumnut (6 December 2008)

1234 said:


> Wow, you guys don't read too much back in the thread eh??
> 
> That was primarily a rhetorical question and partially noting to those who didn't read the link that the targets were not the same as possibly alluded to.
> 
> ...




You've got it in one mate.

Brokers estimations are inversely correlated with the subsequent share price in this market.

gg


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## Miner (6 December 2008)

how many times we have seen that brokers have said SELL ? 
Very few actually.

When they say hold means actually more of a sell
When they say Buy means you buy and I am selling. 
Rhetoric but if the brokers knew everything then they would not be brokers but a real investor or enterpreneurs


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## Garpal Gumnut (6 December 2008)

Miner said:


> how many times we have seen that brokers have said SELL ?
> Very few actually.
> 
> When they say hold means actually more of a sell
> ...




Its a bit like alice in the looking glass.

Can't remember who said, "when I say something it means what I mean it to mean" or some such.

Brokers are a sad aspect of investing, a necessary evil whose advice should be taken with a grain of salt.

gg


----------



## 1234 (7 December 2008)

OOps.

Seems Hartley assume 90c ex rate and US$96bbl for WTI FY2008A. They also quote a SP of 27.5c & 28c in two different sections of the rls.. untidy..



Lets assume half price for oil, as it just hit US$40bbl and a realistic ex rate of .65c I've not bothered about the discount on the spot price due to the paraffin content (which would be a few bucks, dropping the real rate to ~ US$36 / US$37

85c upside in 12 months turns into ~35c (because the ex rate doesn't halve - which would be better for CVN with the falling WTI spot price..).

I'm assuming the price received for oil has a direct relationship on SP.. 

For those who will argue otherwise, where is the assumption wrong? (apart from not being able to predict the exchange rate and how oil will perform coming into Summer in the northern hemisphere)


----------



## Miner (7 December 2008)

1234 said:


> OOps.
> 
> Seems Hartley assume 90c ex rate and US$96bbl for WTI FY2008A. They also quote a SP of 27.5c & 28c in *two different sections of the rls.. untidy*..
> 
> ...


----------



## Out Too Soon (8 December 2008)

Carnarvons share price isn't only controlled by the POO (price of oil) because they are still growing through exploration (successful exploration) so pegging a future price is still crystal ball work. High hopes for eventual good gains because eventually the POO will rise again.


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## seasprite (11 December 2008)

NEWS RELEASE TRANSMITTED BY MARKETWIRE


FOR: Pan Orient Energy Corp.

TSX VENTURE SYMBOL: POE

December 10, 2008

Pan Orient Energy Corp.: Asia Operations Update


CALGARY, ALBERTA--(Marketwire - Dec. 10, 2008) - PAN ORIENT ENERGY CORP. (TSX 
VENTUREOE) -

NOT FOR DISSEMINATION TO U.S. NEWSWIRE SERVICES OR FOR DISSEMINATION IN THE 
UNITED STATES.

THAILAND

NSE-E1 exploration well (60-per-cent working interest and operator)

The NSE-E1 exploration well, located approximately 260 meters due west of the 
NSE-D1 drill pad is producing at a rate of approximately 448 bbls of fluid per 
day (173 barrels of oil and 275 barrels of water) from the main volcanic 
reservoir target. Both oil gravity and pressure measurements confirm the well 
is located in a distinctly separate pool on the downthrown side, west of a 
large fault relative to the NSE field. On the basis of these NSE-E1 results, 
NSE-E2 will be drilled approximately 360 meters southeast and 40 meters up dip 
of the NSE-E1 location, a position interpreted to be significantly up dip of 
the oil water contact that is believed to have been encountered at the bottom 
of the main volcanic objective encountered at NSE-E1.

NSE-E1 was an exploration well designed to test an approximately 1 square 
kilometer structural closure located on the down thrown side of the main NSE 
field central fault compartment called NSE Central B. There had been no 
reserves, of any category, assigned to the NSE Central B prospect in the year 
end 2007 NI51-101 compliant reserves report.

NSE-D2 appraisal well (60-per-cent working interest and operator)

The NSE-D2 appraisal well encountered the top of the main volcanic reservoir at 
a depth of depth of 754 meters true vertical depth (TVD) approximately 330 
meters north of the NSE-D1 location. Approximately 34 meters of highly 
fractured volcanic reservoir was drilled with mud losses of approximately 1,200 
barrels. The well was put on test, flowing mainly gas with some oil, indicating 
close proximity to an interpreted oil water contact. Rig 14 is currently 
logging the main volcanic objective in a side track that encountered the main 
volcanic reservoir approximately 30 meters structurally lower than in the 
original well bore and believed to be below the gas/oil contact. Severe losses 
were encountered indicating good fractured reservoir is present. Testing is 
anticipated to commence once the rig has been moved off site to NSE-E2 and test 
results will be reported when stabilized rates have been achieved.

L44-V appraisal well (60-per-cent working interest and operator)

The L44-V appraisal well, drilled from a surface location approximately 1.3 
kilometers south west of the Bo Rang-1 gas discovery, is currently setting 
intermediate casing at a depth of 484 meters (true vertical depth), 
approximately 200 meters above the main volcanic objective. L44-V is targeting 
a potential down dip oil leg within a volcanic reservoir that tested 5.5MMcfg/d 
at the structurally higher Bo Rang-1 well drilled by an earlier operator of the 
L44 concession area. Drilling is anticipated to be completed by year end.


----------



## magnale (24 December 2008)

Everyone have a very happy Xmas , and with a great deal of hope we might have a prosperous New Year


----------



## bankit (31 December 2008)

Hi All,

CVN is up 4 ¢ at the moment but according to a source it is end of year window dressing which is easy when the market is thin. Prices are likely to drop back on the opening of trading in the New Year.

Bankit


----------



## derbon99 (31 December 2008)

bankit said:


> Hi All,
> 
> CVN is up 4 ¢ at the moment but according to a source it is end of year window dressing which is easy when the market is thin. Prices are likely to drop back on the opening of trading in the New Year.
> 
> Bankit




Window dressing = To dump stocks with bad performance before the year end... So I think you are totally wrong as if it would be window dressing CVN would lose cents... I think the rise is due to the results of the 2 last wells of the year.


----------



## bankit (31 December 2008)

derbon99 said:


> Window dressing = To dump stocks with bad performance before the year end... So I think you are totally wrong as if it would be window dressing CVN would lose cents.




Hi Debron99,

Wimdow dressing works both ways.

What if a fund wants to make their bottom line look good at the end of the year?

Bankit


----------



## derbon99 (31 December 2008)

bankit said:


> Hi Debron99,
> 
> Wimdow dressing works both ways.
> 
> ...




Hi,
Maybe you are right but for me window dressing is a process to hide the bad performer. So you sell stocks with weak return like CVN and you something else or you stay cash. 
Happy new year


----------



## seasprite (7 January 2009)

Thailand Production
Thailand production exited 2008 at 13,446 bopd gross (5,378 bopd net to Carnarvon) which
was below the year end 2008 exit target of 15,000 bopd gross (6,000 bopd net). The target was
not met due mainly to NSE-D2ST1 once again intersecting a gas cap, and a year end focus on
wells targeting reserves additions rather than production. Year end drilling focused around
potential new reserves drilling at NSE-E2 and Bo Rang (L44-V) due in part to a reduced oil
price. At year end two wells awaited testing (NSE-E2 and L44-V), that in the success case
would result in incremental production. The year end exit production rate of 5,378 bopd, net to
Carnarvon, was an increase of 2,438 bopd, or 83%, over the 2007 exit rate of 2,940 bopd. The
Company continues to focus on production growth in combination with establishing new
reserves that would enable production to be maintained and grow through 2009.


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## JTLP (7 January 2009)

I've got to be honest here...

I have a fondness for the old CVN...having held for a long time. This year did indeed look to be the most exciting...with the prediction of 15,000 BOPD (CVN net 6,000 BOPD) to be on target and well within reach. Even Ted was giving it the green light and saying it was easily achievable.

But to fall short at the end of the year and not to have drill results was quite a kick in the guts. It was clearly frowned upon today in trading and to be honest I was pretty disappointed as an investor. They have incredible strike ratio's and very prospective land...they could have released the choke on some of the flows to achieve the target? I know they specified reasons for not reaching it (gas cap etc) but still...bit disappointing.

On the plus side we have new concessions to look forward to in '09 (50% with Pearl Energy...pending the awards which are due in early '09) and some new wells which look intriguing. Hoping we can keep the head above 30 and POO can stay around the $50 US mark.

Does anyone know how many drills are planned for '09? And again...would love to see some munching of predators happening...

OOOH and don't forget reserves update

JTLP


----------



## seasprite (9 January 2009)

so far holding up nicely jtc . I managed to pick up a parcel at 28.5 . Little bit disappointing with the announcement the other day , however NSE-D2 has been a problem child. wait and see what ST2 brings and yes they do have an incredible strike rate .

don't know CVN's master plan as far as drilling schedules go . Most oilers have pushed their schedules out .


----------



## magnale (13 January 2009)

It is holding up well considering the oil price and the general malaise of the global crisis  I can't think of anything else except that as an amateur speculator I always appreciate what you write


----------



## seasprite (16 January 2009)

magnale said:


> It is holding up well considering the oil price and the general malaise of the global crisis )




I hate to be the bearer of bad news , but price of oil has taken a hammering overnight (now almost US$4) which will put it at about minus US$15 per barrel over this last week, it is almost advantageous that CVN pumps less to sales than receive less revenue for more product.


----------



## Dukey (16 January 2009)

seasprite said:


> I hate to be the bearer of bad news , but price of oil has taken a hammering overnight (now almost US$4) which will put it at about minus US$15 per barrel over this last week, it is almost advantageous that CVN pumps less to sales than receive less revenue for more product.





????


POO currently about $35.... perhaps you slipped on the keyboard.

I don't believe it will stay that low for long... the saudis will make sure of it.

my  - d


----------



## Real1ty (16 January 2009)

Dukey said:


> ????
> 
> 
> POO currently about $35.... perhaps you slipped on the keyboard.




seasprite was pointing out that it had slipped approximately $15.00 in the last week not that it was that price....


----------



## seasprite (16 January 2009)

yeah , thanks Real1ty .
  Sorry Dukey , didn't explain myself too well , when I made my post POO was at $33.20 and was looking to go down further , but has since recovered. 

CVN is so far a machine , alot of support and has been in stalemate for most of the day. Glad I topped up the other day.


----------



## Dukey (16 January 2009)

seasprite said:


> yeah , thanks Real1ty .
> Sorry Dukey , didn't explain myself too well , when I made my post POO was at $33.20 and was looking to go down further , but has since recovered.
> 
> CVN is so far a machine , alot of support and has been in stalemate for most of the day. Glad I topped up the other day.




No probs - my speed reading was a bit off.  Can't wait for some of oil/gas stocks to jump when the POO heads north again!! CVN will be off like a rocket I'd think when that happens.


----------



## seasprite (28 January 2009)

refer http://www.latentpet.com/_content/documents/545.pdf , latent petroleum set to drill warro gas field this week in EP321,EP407 . CVN have Overriding Royalty Interest of 2.5% net wellhead value.


----------



## Miner (28 January 2009)

seasprite said:


> refer http://www.latentpet.com/_content/documents/545.pdf , latent petroleum set to drill warro gas field this week in EP321,EP407 . CVN have Overriding Royalty Interest of 2.5% net wellhead value.





Good info Seasprite

I am not sure if that news has or could relate to the attached news dated 23 Jan 09 of Mr Ken Judge Selling 2 million shares on the market - opportunity or something he knows? There was no discussion on this forum about this either . Dunn No


----------



## seasprite (28 January 2009)

Miner said:


> I am not sure if that news has or could relate to the attached news dated 23 Jan 09 of Mr Ken Judge Selling 2 million shares on the market - opportunity or something he knows? There was no discussion on this forum about this either . Dunn No





Mr Judge has fingers in all sorts of pies , it was his indirect interest through Hamilton Capital that he is CEO of . Mr Judge is a non executive director of CVN and from memory he only received 56K in salary last year compared to Ted's 400K or so . Like most holder's , I think the sooner he is gone the better. I for one did not vote him back.

 Bigger picture is Judge is not selling because CVN is a bad investment , it is probably due to his investments elsewhere.

CVN's quarterly result is due on the 30th Jan or there abouts .


----------



## doogie_goes_off (28 January 2009)

Quarterly figures will be interesting, the Oil price hasn't been great but the exchange rate will have helped the $AUD profits up a little. Still producing at low cost so goodbye Mr Judge, we don't care if you don't want to share the long term gain. Good spot on the 2.5% royalty deal Seasprite.


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## seasprite (29 January 2009)

Latest Euroz broker report dated 28 Jan 09 refer http://www.carnarvonpetroleum.com/docs/CVN_RQ_Jan09.pdf


----------



## doogie_goes_off (29 January 2009)

Nice solid buy reccomendation, makes a PE ratio of 6-7 look cheap (more like 4-5 if earnings continue to grow). Makes me consider accumulating some more.


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## seasprite (30 January 2009)

doogie_goes_off said:


> Nice solid buy reccomendation, makes a PE ratio of 6-7 look cheap (more like 4-5 if earnings continue to grow). Makes me consider accumulating some more.




hopefully Quarterly out today.  I'm not reading too much into this broker report , this next quarterly will produce facts rather than opinion based on a stagnant POO of US$35 (that Euroz quote) ,with a good indication of CVN's direction. 
Can only imagine it will be all good news.


----------



## seasprite (30 January 2009)

For Carnarvon Petroleum quarterly report refer http://www.asx.com.au/asxpdf/20090130/pdf/31ft15crv8sb7k.pdf

$71m cash at bank as opposed to $55m Euroz quote


----------



## magnale (31 January 2009)

I'm very excited ! I suppose we are all rather wondering how long  all this turmoil is going to last : but as soon as it does  wow...


----------



## Dukey (31 January 2009)

Havn't even had time to look at the Qtly yet  - but I'm expecting a big year from CVN - esp. when the POO turns back up again!!
... exited - well I try not to be - leads to irrational decisions!!!  but more cash at bank can't ever be bad... in these 'interesting' times.

(must be in rational mode today)

- duke-E


----------



## JTLP (1 February 2009)

Having a looksy through CVN's quarterly's...everything seems A-OK.

I think there may be some confusion re: $71m in the bank. From my understanding some of this will be earmarked for the SRB etc. 

Looks like they have a nice development plan for drilling etc. Acquisitions talk seems the same old...and a bit of a disappointment with the delay in the awarding of permits with Pearl Energy.

One question...why do they predict until Q2 2009 for the 15,000 BOPD target?


----------



## seasprite (9 February 2009)

Extract from Latent petroleum website dated 5 February 09

JOINT VENTURE STARTS DRILLING OF WA’S FIRST TIGHT GAS FIELD

Drilling of WA’s first tight gas field, the Warro Gas field was inspected today by Petroleum and
Mines Minister Norman Moore, near Moora (60 kilometres east of Jurien).
Latent Petroleum and its joint venture partners Alcoa of Australia and Transerv started drilling of
Warro’s first appraisal well last Friday, following the successful assembly of a 1500hp onshore
drilling rig from Houston, Texas.
The Joint Venture has been instrumental in mobilising the new, state-of-the-art drilling rig to
Western Australia, which is capable of drilling to over 5000m and will be used by other
operators in WA for drilling operation in 2009.
Latent Managing Director Stephen Keenihan said drilling of the well would take about 35 days to
reach its total depth of 4,375metres.
“Following the drilling, a fracture stimulation program on the target gas zones to establish flow
rates will be completed 35-40 days after this,” Mr Keenihan said.


----------



## JTLP (11 February 2009)

Press Release Out: http://www.marketwirecanada.com/mw/rel_ca.jsp?id=947576&k=poe

To be honest it isn't all that interesting. A lot of wells on the go but expect to wait at least another 3 weeks for any news out of those.

A couple of other wells have turned up dusters in essence...but they plan to redrill due to oil signs from different zones.

Might see some pain for the old CVN tomorrow.


----------



## Lachlan6 (18 February 2009)

The stock has been relatively resilient in the last few months given the state of oil. It has broken out of a declining wedge in what appears to be the wave 5 so it would be realistic to suggest a nice bounce is now underway. It seems very important that the stock holds above the recent little ledge of support (shown on the chart) if it is to maintain strength. There has also been some brilliant positive divergence in the MACD since Aug last year symbolising underlying strength.


----------



## JTLP (18 February 2009)

Hi Lachlan,

Thanks for the analysis.

CVN can be very painful at times with announcements to the market etc...

Currently they are trying to beef up reserves...so any misses and the market will punish them. They have quite a few drills online at the moment...hopefully some of these can come to fruition. Prior to the last ann there was a bit of a churn in the old CVN volume...but it has since dropped out post the rather boring announcement.

Also waiting on the awarding of blocks this quarter (JV with Pearl Energy) as well as a reserves statement update. Oh and something about new business ventures would be nice...

CVN need to update zi market more...


----------



## seasprite (19 February 2009)

Lachlan6 said:


> The stock has been relatively resilient in the last few months given the state of oil. It has broken out of a declining wedge in what appears to be the wave 5 so it would be realistic to suggest a nice bounce is now underway. It seems very important that the stock holds above the recent little ledge of support (shown on the chart) if it is to maintain strength. There has also been some brilliant positive divergence in the MACD since Aug last year symbolising underlying strength.




quite surprised CVN touched this level today , it has tested 28c twice before on worse days and bounced straight off to end up.


----------



## Miner (19 February 2009)

JTLP said:


> Hi Lachlan,
> 
> Thanks for the analysis.
> 
> ...





Hi Lachlan

I am not sure if the pain you forecasted with CVN is reflecting today's market for CVN pending some more painful announcement ? 

Hope there is no surprise from this little charming explorer !

Disclaimer : DH CVN


----------



## JTLP (19 February 2009)

Miner said:


> Hi Lachlan
> 
> I am not sure if the pain you forecasted with CVN is reflecting today's market for CVN pending some more painful announcement ?
> 
> ...




Hi Miner...

I take it you were referring to me and not Lachlan 

CVN is painful because unfortunately they are at the mercy of POE (TSX listed) for announcements (but are in a prime position as they are not operators of the drills )...POE have a habit of putting out announcements with drill dates and expected result logs etc...but this nearly always seem to blow out of proportion (time/date wise that is).

CVN is a highly liquid stock (read: lots of traders)...who depend on an ann...doesn't come...dump stock...some hold...ann comes...not what they expected...dump stock...long termers bottom pick...

WASH RINSE AND REPEAT...

I Hold CVN


----------



## Miner (20 February 2009)

JTLP said:


> Hi Miner...
> 
> I take it you were referring to me and not Lachlan
> 
> ...




Thanks JTLP
Yes I meant you and not Lachlan (combined effect of financial stress from stock market losses, red wine and age are all happening with me

Sorry Lachlan for mix up

Any way, JTLP your comment was very thoughtful

I am holding (DH) CVN and hoping to hold as far as I can

Cheers


----------



## Lachlan6 (20 February 2009)

No worries Miner. I will leave the fundamental stuff to you guys! The only solace with today's action was the high close on high volume. The stock really now needs to close back above this small ledge.


----------



## JTLP (24 February 2009)

Hi Miner & Co...

A little more insight into CVN and their current situation:

1. They have a lot of cash in the bank and are debt free...and also produce oil at a very low cost per barrel (around $4 - $5 USD a barrel)...meaning that if Oil does drop to $20 US a barrel...CVN will be one of only a handful of mid-cap operations to survive.

2. Doing some rough calculations last night...we cannot expect any news from CVN until at least the very end of Feb/Start of March. I would predict between March 5th and 10th. The only results we can hope for in this coming week are in relation to: NSE-D2ST1 appraisal well...which is highly unlikely as POE like to release a batch of results together...not just one well. But we shall see...

3. Volumes have been relatively low for CVN lately but the SP is continuing to fall. I'm hoping this years low of 0.23 will act as support if the SP continues to decline. I also wonder if Ted or any of his board will pick up shares at this price? Or is Ken Judge is dropping his off?

Some food for thought...


----------



## Miner (24 February 2009)

JTLP said:


> Hi Miner & Co...
> 
> A little more insight into CVN and their current situation:
> 
> ...




Thanks JTLP for the update.
I was feeling a bit nervous with CVN fall for last few days including today.
Your update honestly eliminated some nervousness and I am now gearing up to buy more CVN should the price go down. Reading recommendations from InterSuisse, Bell etc and reading their own announcements I tend to belief CVN will be a growth share.


Disclaimer : I do hold CVN


----------



## sinner (24 February 2009)

Hi guys,

I held this but exited today at a small loss (smaller than CUE, what a dog that's been!) when stop was hit, with an eye to re-enter when the dust has settled for oil.

As mentioned by others who know better it is a quality stock, I only will put meaningful cash into debt free companies!

Ken Judge sold 2 mil (at 0.284) during late Jan according to Comsec announcements section for the company.


----------



## seasprite (24 February 2009)

Miner

Fundamentals are still there , nothing has changed internally . POO has actually risen prior to CVN's sp drop and the exchange rate US/AU has remained fairly constant so far , external factors such as the DOW , S&P 500 etc seem to be the major negative force surrounding oil stocks (all stocks) at the moment. 
 In times of these sell offs it is noted the top 2 holders , National Nominees and JP Morgan are still increasing their holdings.

National Nominees 21,756,967 (29 Aug 08) now 34,428,815
           JP Morgan 31,916,000 (29 Aug 08) now 41,325,170 

Discl - Long term holder.


----------



## seasprite (26 February 2009)

Asia Oil Week Presentation see http://www.asx.com.au/asxpdf/20090226/pdf/31g8fvycsq8zrn.pdf ...............


----------



## JTLP (26 February 2009)

That report did not wow me...and seemed a bit Simon Simpleton (ala put together by a child) if you ask me.

Seemed to lack professionalism and just pointed out that they have money for growth and not survival...mmm


----------



## seasprite (26 February 2009)

Warro field drilling update refer http://www.asx.com.au/asxpdf/20090226/pdf/31g9bzn33zt6f4.pdf  ...........................


----------



## seasprite (27 February 2009)

JTLP said:


> That report did not wow me...and seemed a bit Simon Simpleton (ala put together by a child) if you ask me.
> 
> Seemed to lack professionalism and just pointed out that they have money for growth and not survival...mmm




I agree JTLP , the presentation was a bit budget , they must be really conserving that $71m +

anyhow CVN half yearly accounts see http://www.asx.com.au/asxpdf/20090227/pdf/31gbddmk35rqfc.pdf


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## sinner (6 March 2009)

CVN another addition to the SP200 for March rebalance.

I like this one too much and bought back in at 0.27.


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## Bluebeard (7 March 2009)

How many bopds are Carnarvon producing? Ive looked around, but because Ive come late into looking at CVN its hard to determine. Are they around 5000bopds is this number right? Also like to find out how many reserves these guys have got. Thanks for your help in advance.


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## JTLP (12 March 2009)

Miner said:


> Thanks JTLP for the update.
> I was feeling a bit nervous with CVN fall for last few days including today.
> Your update honestly eliminated some nervousness and I am now gearing up to buy more CVN should the price go down. Reading recommendations from InterSuisse, Bell etc and reading their own announcements I tend to belief CVN will be a growth share.
> 
> ...




Miner,

I feel it as my duty to personally apologize to you as CVN has not released any information as per my guesstimate within the March 5th - 10th timeframe. I am starting to get a bit annoyed with POE management for their continued failure to deliver an announcement anywhere near the expected time frames. Hopefully the boys at CVN are starting to get annoyed too and are looking to sign off on some new JV's or M&A's...

Some news I believe we are expecting:

1. Current flow tests and rates from Feb 10th Ann
2. Awarding of blocks L52/50 L53/50 (from memory) with Pearl Energy...was meant to be done early this year but government change mixed this up...was still promised as early in the year though
3. I also believe a reserves upgrade is in order for end of March (possibly read that from a report or another CVN stalwart noted it...)

Anyway let's hold our heads up high as the POO has started to rise again (although Singapore's oil dropped by 7% apparently...don't CVN sell into there???...)

JTLP


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## JTLP (16 March 2009)

Well knock number #3 off my list...reserves upgrade out tonight from POE. Please note that these figures do not represent CVN as they only hold a 40% interest (these figures have been calculated to represent the 60% value it presents to POE).

http://www.marketwirecanada.com/mw/rel_ca.jsp?id=961350&k=poe

Pan Orient Energy Corp. (TSX VENTUREOE) today released its 2008 year-end Thailand reserves estimates, as evaluated by Gaffney Cline & Associates Ltd., Singapore.

Highlights:

- Net present value (discounted 10 AFTER Tax - forecast prices) of $357 million ($7.83 per Pan Orient share) attributed to its Thailand Proven + Probable reserves, an increase of 42% from $252 million in prior year.

- Proven + Probable Thailand recoverable reserves of 25.0 million barrels of oil, an increase of 47% from 17.0 million barrels in prior year.

- Proven Thailand recoverable reserves of 5.58 million barrels of oil, an increase of 45% from 3.85 million barrels in prior year, excluding production of 1.75 million barrels net to Pan Orient during 2008.

- Proven + Probable + Possible Thailand recoverable reserves assessed at 55.3 million barrels.

- Reserves do not include 3.85 million barrels of mid-case estimated contingent resources assigned to the L44-R structure.




Summary:


SUMMARY OF THAILAND CRUDE RESERVES AS OF JANUARY 1, 2009, AS PROVIDED BY 
GAFFNEY CLINE & ASSOCIATES LTD.
----------------------------------------------------------------------------
----------------------------------------------------------------------------
                                                                 Pan Orient
Marketable Reserves                                                   (mbbl)
----------------------------------------------------------------------------
----------------------------------------------------------------------------
Proved
 Thailand                                                             5,580
Probable
 Thailand                                                            19,383


----------------------------------------------------------------------------
Total Proved plus Probable                                           24,963


Possible
 Thailand                                                            30,308


----------------------------------------------------------------------------
Total Proved plus Probable plus Possible                             55,271
----------------------------------------------------------------------------
----------------------------------------------------------------------------



SUMMARY OF THAILAND NET PRESENT VALUES AS OF JANUARY 1, 2009, AS PROVIDED BY
GAFFNEY CLINE & ASSOCIATES LTD. (BEFORE TAX)
----------------------------------------------------------------------------
----------------------------------------------------------------------------


Present values - $millions - BT  Undiscounted         5%       10%       15%
----------------------------------------------------------------------------
----------------------------------------------------------------------------


Proved
 Thailand                                 266       237       214       195


Probable
 Thailand                                 835       631       489       389


----------------------------------------------------------------------------
Total Proved plus Probable              1,101       867       703       584

PS---------

Miner are you still with us you blessed soul?


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## Garpal Gumnut (17 March 2009)

Thank you all for the fundamentakist information on CVN. read fundamental anlysis, it is late, prone to s

CVN technically is a traders dream.

It is in a trading range, most stocks are in a down trend.

I have been accumulating CVN again.

One tactic is to buy at the low of the trading range and sell at the top.

I feel CVN is due for a run up.

I do not read funnymental analysis. I wouldn't know a barrel from the King of Thailand and would not comment on the latter for fear of being banged up with the sick, the bad and the mentally ill in some Thai prison.

A chart 

gg


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## seasprite (17 March 2009)

News from last week , Strong gas shows Warro 3 see http://www.latentpet.com/_content/documents/551.pdf


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## seasprite (17 March 2009)

Also refer TSV announcement 280m net pay warro 3 http://www.asx.com.au/asxpdf/20090317/pdf/31gn0l774brnp9.pdf


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## seasprite (23 March 2009)

For Bell Potter Broker report refer to ......... http://www.carnarvonpetroleum.com/docs/CVN_090204.pdf interesting to see date of issue is 4/2/2009


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## seasprite (1 April 2009)

Unfortunately production has dropped off somewhat refer to extract from Pan Orient website news. 




Pan Orient Energy Corp.: NSE-F1 Oil Discovery

MAR 31, 2009 - 07:00 ET

CALGARY, ALBERTA--(Marketwire - March 31, 2009) - Pan Orient Energy Corp. (TSX VENTUREOE)

NOT FOR DISSEMINATION TO U.S. NEWSWIRE SERVICES OR FOR DISSEMINATION IN THE UNITED STATES.

THAILAND

NSE-F1 Discovery (60-per-cent working interest and operator)

The NSE-F1 well is currently producing 43-47 degree API oil (versus 36 degree API NSE field oil) at approximately 60 bopd with a water cut of approximately 15%. This is a modest flow rate in comparison to the many of the wells Pan Orient has drilled, however, NSE-F1 has established commercial production approximately 1 kilometer northeast of the nearest NSE central field producer, NSE-C1, and upgrades the potential of a large fairway due east of the main NSE central field and south of the Bo Rang gas discovery.

L44-W exploration well (60-per-cent working interest and operator)

The L44-W high impact exploration well is located 4.7 kilometers north of the Bo Rang-1 gas discovery and is targeting multiple volcanic objectives with structural closures ranging in areal extent from 2.3 to 6 square kilometers, and a maximum potential of 13.7 square kilometers in the upside event that L44-W and Bo Rang are in communication at the main volcanic target level.

The well will be drilling ahead in to the main volcanic objective within the next 36 hours. Prior to setting intermediate casing, the top 2 meters of a secondary volcanic objective had been encountered with mud losses and oil shows observed while drilling.

A shallower (third) volcanic zone was penetrated at 363 meters TVD exhibiting high mud gas readings and oil shows. Image logs run over this interval indicated extensive fracturing.

It is anticipated L44-W will be completed within the next 7 days. Testing of multiple zones is likely to take place shortly thereafter.

NSE-G1 appraisal well (60-per-cent working interest and operator)

The NSE-G1 appraisal well was drilled to a subsurface location 385 meters north of the NSE-D3 well and is targeting the main volcanic reservoir edge at the boundary of the central and north fault compartments. Approximately 12 meters of main volcanic reservoir was encountered at 783 meters true vertical depth (TVD) with elevated mud gas readings and oil shows over the majority of this interval. Prior to logging, the decision was made to continue drilling in order to test a deeper volcanic objective on the down dip flank of a large structural closure. At 1,085 meters TVD, the top of an approximately 100 meter thick volcanic was penetrated and drilled to a depth of 1,196 meters TVD where total drilling fluid losses and strong oil shows were encountered. Testing recovered only water. Subsequent interpretation of the data provided by this well indicates a large area up dip that will be tested in a future side track from the existing well bore.

NSE-D2ST2 appraisal well (60-per-cent working interest and operator)

The NSE-D2ST2 sidetrack well is currently on production at a rate of approximately 143 bopd with electrical submersible pump installation (ESP) unsuccessful in boosting production due to the high gas cut in this well.

L44-R2 appraisal well (60-per-cent working interest and operator)

L44-R2 was drilled approximately 700 meters north of the L44-R discovery. Testing of the main volcanic reservoir objective resulted in no recovery as the zone was tight. Pan Orient is currently investigating the application of fracture stimulating this reservoir as a means of upgrading the 6.4 million barrels (100%) of mid case contingent resources, as evaluated by Gaffney Cline & Associates, into reserves.

NSE-H1 appraisal well (60-per-cent working interest and operator)

The NSE-H1 well, located in the north east portion of the NSE central fault compartment, is currently on production at a rate of 630 bopd with a water cut of approximately 7% and decreasing as the well continues to clean up after extensive drilling fluid losses.

NSE-H2 appraisal well (60-per-cent working interest and operator)

The NSE-H2 well is about to set casing after encountering the main volcanic objective in the northern portion of the NSE central fault compartment, approximately 350 meters northeast of the NSE-H1 well location. Drilling fluid losses of 300 bbls/hr were encountered while drilling the target volcanic zone and oil was observed in the drilling mud. It is anticipated the well will be tested within the next 7-10 days and the rig skidded over on the pad to drill NSE-H3 with a subsurface target 704 meters southwest of the NSE-H2 subsurface target location.

Summary

Production is currently averaging approximately 9,000 bopd gross (5,400 bopd net to Pan Orient) after peaking at over 14,000 bopd gross (8,400 bopd net) at year end as a result of natural declines off of initial test rates and a number of wells now on pump after initially free flowing. Total concession production water cut is currently averaging approximately 15%.

Recent activity has been focused on the evaluation of the exploration potential of the L44 concession with the vast majority of the wells drilled in the past 3 months targeting new reserves as opposed to continued NSE field development. This drilling campaign resulted in a new field discovery at NSE-E1 with 2.843 MM gross barrels (1.7 MM barrels net) of recoverable 2P reserves (100%), the NSE-F1 discovery of currently unknown size, the recovery of 15 barrels of oil from a new volcanic zone below the proven NSE central main volcanic reservoir at NSE-E2 and the encouraging preliminary results from the L44-W high impact exploration well that is about to be testing within the next 10 to 14 days. In addition, the potential of another deeper play has been defined with the results of NSE-G1, which will be side tracked to evaluate the 100 meter thick volcanic that was encountered below the main reservoir, in a higher structural position.

Pan Orient currently has a total inventory of 17 development locations on the NSE south and central structures that we estimate will be capable of 500 bopd per well, after initial declines. We are currently building two locations to evaluate the NSE north fault compartment discovery made 2 years ago. Subsequent to the first two wells drilled on this structure, L44G-D1 and L44-G, a 3D seismic survey was acquired over the area better defining this stratigraphic and structurally complex area.

Looking ahead, our development drilling program will be more active than in the past 3 months in order to build production up to a stable plateau targeting between 12,000 to 15,000 bopd gross (7,200 to 9,000 bopd net). These targets will be reviewed in the event of any exploration drilling success.

Exploration drilling, in addition to that described earlier, will be targeting high impact prospects at Bo Rang, and Si Thep deep. The first wells in the 100% working interest concession L53/48, are planned for July 2009, subject to the timing of environmental approval of EIA applications that were made in early March.


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## wonderrman (3 April 2009)

The chart looks even more beautiful by the day. This one has been a great trade, perfect chart on all levels from a technical point of view. Initial breakout, retrace and good volume. Charting is such a good thing.


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## seasprite (4 April 2009)

wonderrman said:


> The chart looks even more beautiful by the day. This one has been a great trade, perfect chart on all levels from a technical point of view. Initial breakout, retrace and good volume. Charting is such a good thing.




I took a profit on these for the interim and are now fully out (which is a shame since CVN has been one of favourites) , as you say the chart is looking good . However I am looking at another correction to the downside , could be wrong but it is a gamble I will take for the next 2 or 3 weeks.


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## wonderrman (4 April 2009)

seasprite said:


> I took a profit on these for the interim and are now fully out (which is a shame since CVN has been one of favourites) , as you say the chart is looking good . However I am looking at another correction to the downside , could be wrong but it is a gamble I will take for the next 2 or 3 weeks.




Yes any weakness on the broader market (which we should feel in the next week or two) would send her a bit lower. I've got a tight trailing stop so I should be right. wonder.


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## wonderrman (7 April 2009)

Some minor resistence approaching (~40c). A push above this, depending on the overall movement of the market, will see me add some more money to this one. Next level of resistence above that is 50c.


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## eddyeagle (16 April 2009)

CVN starting to move again. Has had a good run in the last 6 weeks. Recent volume is up on the December - March period. Hopefully it can break through the 40c barrier up towards the 50c resistance. Fat Prophets put a buy on it last week...


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## Go Nuke (17 April 2009)

Anyone's thoughts on my chart ....

Buy in at around .36 - .365 buy in the ride the next swing up to around .42c when you exit. Approx a 17% gain.

I'm not going to actually do it...just learning


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## wonderrman (17 April 2009)

My chart hasn't changed from the 4th April which is a few posts above. It is close to the resistence mark so hopefully it pushses through impulsively or retraces then push higher (more likely). 

Of course this depends on the general market movement though. Personally I would not be entering the trade for the first time if CVN retraces. ~3800 is a big resistence area on the XJO/XAO chart and the reaction to this is going to be vey important.

Regards , wonder.


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## JTLP (19 April 2009)

Volume has been up quite considerably over the past week and it might possibly have to do with the following factors:

- Ann re: drilling and testing for multiple wells
- Insto stepping into the limelight and picking up a few. Ted has always wanted insto support to bring down the number of shares on issue (maybe the comp should do a buyback and destroy the shares???)
- Possibly (although I did not think CVN was a leaky ship) Ted is scoping out some distressed assets from other companies?

I wonder if there would be any merit in CVN purchasing say 40% of NXS's permit and letting NXS retain operation...CVN just a funding partner. Would give CVN more oil exposure and would help to reduce NXS debt...could they be sniffing around? (most likely not but a thought).


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## mrgroundwork (19 April 2009)

im pretty sure NXS are looking for a lot more cash than what CVN have... 

im very bullish on CVN though, i just hope they can purchase some distressed assets before oil price makes its inevitable move up or the credit markets defrost... 

a purchase of a quality asset with big upside will be what can take them to mid-cap status rather than just languishing as a solid single asset small cap...it could also be what sinks the company, but id prefer they take the risk of an acquisition


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## JTLP (19 April 2009)

mrgroundwork said:


> im pretty sure NXS are looking for a lot more cash than what CVN have...
> 
> im very bullish on CVN though, i just hope they can purchase some distressed assets before oil price makes its inevitable move up or the credit markets defrost...
> 
> a purchase of a quality asset with big upside will be what can take them to mid-cap status rather than just languishing as a solid single asset small cap...it could also be what sinks the company, but id prefer they take the risk of an acquisition




Mmm they don't have a single asset...read up! They are currently focused on their thai assets...but have royalty interest in another project (run by TSV i believe), assets in Carnarvon basement and some study in Indonesia. They are looking to build safely, not stupidly, so I don't agree on your big upside big risk category...i don't think that is what CVN is all about.

JV's with POE (TSX), Sun Resources (SUR:AX) and potentially Pearl Energy...things are good. Acquisition yes...big risk...no


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## kingbrown (20 April 2009)

Any one here who is not ramping this stock ?

Fat P seems to have tempted many recent sheep into this stock ?
Looks good on paper 
Any recent bad points to watch ??

Iam a bit reluctant to buy at these higher prices ? ( dead cat bounce ? )

Who's waiting for a re-trace and at what prices ?

any comments about ?

K.B


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## kingbrown (20 April 2009)

seasprite said:


> For Bell Potter Broker report refer to ......... http://www.carnarvonpetroleum.com/docs/CVN_090204.pdf interesting to see date of issue is 4/2/2009




Yes it is and its up 
But would you really trust them Seasprite ? 

check this link for todays news 

CLAIMS a stockbroking company bestowed a "gross overvaluation" on anti-cancer drug developer Progen Pharmaceuticals will come under scrutiny.

http://www.news.com.au/heraldsun/story/0,21985,25344633-664,00.html


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## kingbrown (22 April 2009)

seems to be on a re-trace atm 

Closed at .36
Thats about 10% in 2 days
oil has copped a bit of a set back though 

still on the fence


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## Go Nuke (24 April 2009)

Wow. Turns out I should have backed my thoughts and gone with what a wrote a few days back..lol.

Though perhaps to sell out now might be a bit premature.

Go me!


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## eddyeagle (24 April 2009)

Great news today being added to the ASX200! Go CVN! Hopefully can keep pushing up towards 50c mark...


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## kingbrown (24 April 2009)

Yeah rub it in guys

Just waiting for that market to take a dive 

tick tock tick tock 
and cvn keeps going up and up 



Do not hold cvn yet


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## wonderrman (24 April 2009)

> Do not hold cvn yet




We'll you should mate! CVN is a very beautiful chart at the moment in what is a very terrible market. I would jump on board as soon as I could!


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## JTLP (25 April 2009)

kingbrown said:


> Any one here who is not ramping this stock ?
> 
> Fat P seems to have tempted many recent sheep into this stock ?
> Looks good on paper
> ...




Mmm I don't think ramping...I just think a lot of people love the story (and there is a lot to love!).

There are of course downsides/risks involved:
- Sovereign Risk (Thailand's change of gov't, military coups etc)
- Failure to reach 15,000 BOPD target (they did alter this for exploration due to falling oil costs...still would be nice to achieve targets!)
- Oil rate is declining and they need more wells to come online (offset by the fact they have found new oil in a different permit to current)
- A lot of shares on issue (650+ million)

Of course there is a lot of upside/positives...but you can read the thread for all that 

JTLP


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## seasprite (26 April 2009)

kingbrown said:


> Any one here who is not ramping this stock ?
> 
> Fat P seems to have tempted many recent sheep into this stock ?
> Looks good on paper
> ...




Im still waiting on a retrace to 29-30c . If and when this happens , I would be interested to see what kind of movement there is in the top 20. Hartleys have estimated a tax liabilty of $40m in may which will halve the cashflow . (Not that I trust some of these broker estimates) . see http://www.carnarvonpetroleum.com/ 30 march 09 release.

I am under the impression of a pump and dump scenario unfolding but as wonderrman pointed out , as long as you have a trailing stop loss , you should be fine.


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## allaboutprofits (28 April 2009)

POE release:  1350 bopd

http://www.marketwire.com/press-release/Pan-Orient-Energy-Corp-TSX-VENTURE-POE-980645.html


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## kenny (29 April 2009)

seasprite said:


> Im still waiting on a retrace to 29-30c . If and when this happens , I would be interested to see what kind of movement there is in the top 20. Hartleys have estimated a tax liabilty of $40m in may which will halve the cashflow . (Not that I trust some of these broker estimates) . see http://www.carnarvonpetroleum.com/ 30 march 09 release.
> 
> I am under the impression of a pump and dump scenario unfolding but as wonderrman pointed out , as long as you have a trailing stop loss , you should be fine.




Hi Seasprite,

Can you explain what has aroused your suspicions of a "pump & dump" in CVN developing? I was assuming more speculation about the just released update report.

CVN has been pretty upfront about the somewhat high tax regime in Thailand all along.

Any thoughts about the recent release? A bit of water in L44W.

Cheers,

Kenny


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## wonderrman (29 April 2009)

> I am under the impression of a pump and dump scenario unfolding but as wonderrman pointed out , as long as you have a trailing stop loss , you should be fine.




Hello. Yes we are approaching some resistence between .47 and .50 cents. The stock has moved up fast so one would expect a retrace. My stop is tight.

Chart attached.







wonder.


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## seasprite (4 May 2009)

wonderrman said:


> Hello. Yes we are approaching some resistence between .47 and .50 cents. The stock has moved up fast so one would expect a retrace. My stop is tight.
> 
> 
> wonder.




this one is exceeding my expectations , fortunately I have made good trades elsewhere to make up for my exit . well done.


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## eddyeagle (4 May 2009)

wonderrman said:


> Hello. Yes we are approaching some resistence between .47 and .50 cents. The stock has moved up fast so one would expect a retrace. My stop is tight.
> 
> Chart attached.
> 
> ...




Up 9% today. Has had a good run recently!

Just wondering how tight people keep their stops on this kind of stock?

I was thinking about setting a trailing stop loss but I havent used these before and was wondering what a good % fall would be to ensure i bank some profits?


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## tarlox (8 May 2009)

in at 27.5 in october out at 54.0 today.  Im Happy.

I will be looking to get back in with any major weakness


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## Garpal Gumnut (8 May 2009)

Lets hope the Thais keep to their usual business and don't bugger up this little darling.It looks good. I got in at 30lplus again. 

If all seetles it will go gangbusters.

My chart service is down so will post one soon

gg


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## derbon99 (12 May 2009)

News out, L44-W is a success! 1220 bopd
Another piece of the puzzle is in place 
Brilliant! Just continue like that!


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## Aargh! (12 May 2009)

Garpal Gumnut said:


> Lets hope the Thais keep to their usual business and don't bugger up this little darling.It looks good. I got in at 30lplus again.
> 
> If all seetles it will go gangbusters.
> 
> ...




Thanks gg. Your charts are always enlightening and your predicted trends seem to eventuate. 

I too got back in during the 30+ range. Currently the only gem in my portfolio.


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## magnale (12 May 2009)

Have a lot of units in CVN and  having bought them at different prices: that is 44cents to 75 cents . I have always felt confident  about this company as I think it is superbly run and has the potential of Oil Search; having had some units in that company. ( My personal view  only !)I hope you all stay with it!


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## Rob 17 (12 May 2009)

I bought a very large parcel at 52 cents when the shares were going down. Im glad i held on and topped up 30 cents.


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## eddyeagle (12 May 2009)

Up 19% today - what a gem!

I was topping up late last year when no one wanted anything to do with oil or equities and the rewards are now coming...

Congrats to all holders who stuck with this one!


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## wonderrman (12 May 2009)

This price action has been really quite amazing. Volume has been staggering and this can usually be either very good or very bad for a stock.

My next major resistnece point on the chart is ~77c, I would be shocked (but delighted) if we went there without a pull back. The stochastic indicator does not suggest we are terribly over bought though. Will continue to hold happily.


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## Go Nuke (13 May 2009)

Bah I took profits the day before the ann at 55c and missed out on another 19% gain

I thought the sp was getting a bit over cooked, and now I think we could be looking at that gap being filled.

Oh well a profit is a profit I guess. I still hold some CVN though.


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## eddyeagle (13 May 2009)

_Oh well a profit is a profit I guess. I still hold some CVN though. _

No man ever went broke taking a profit as they say!

I took some profits off the table at 49c, then at 55c but still have a decent holding in CVN. 

I learnt the hard way last year with so many stocks that got smashed after I had been sitting on big paper profits. Wont make that mistake again! Nothing wrong with locking in profits!


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## kingbrown (15 May 2009)

Fat P had another update that came out on wed night 

Fat P had some very positive comments on the updside of the new oil find 
" And saying "
*that Carnarvon Petroleum is outstandingly
cheap stock !!*Also Hartly's have a target of 83 cents on this stock 
Note: looks to have been just released before the new confimed oil find 

http://www.carnarvon.com.au/docs/CVN_External_20090512-Hartleys.pdf

Any comments on Fat P for CVN ??


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## quarky (19 May 2009)

kingbrown said:


> Fat P had another update that came out on wed night
> 
> Fat P had some very positive comments on the updside of the new oil find
> " And saying "
> ...




when is that target of $0.83 supposed to be hit, if in fact this is a 'cheap stock'?
it's re-traced to about $0.59 since hitting fresh highs of $0.68 and if *wonderrman* is right, 







			
				wonderrman said:
			
		

> My next major resistnece point on the chart is ~77c, I would be shocked (but delighted) if we went there without a pull back. The stochastic indicator does not suggest we are terribly over bought though. Will continue to hold happily.



then, it should be go up within the next few weeks, given stronger resource prices....well, that's my take on it. 

i don't know how many BPOD they're up to or anything like that, anyway.


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## Rob 17 (26 May 2009)

This stock just keeps producing the goods.

Cash on hand(31 March 2009)   $77 million      Debt nil

Strong production & free cashflow:
- 1Q 2009 - 4,110 bopd net Carnarvon production
- +A$21.5 million revenue

No fuss management.


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## Rob 17 (28 May 2009)

Some more good news 

NSE-H3 New Pool Oil Discovery 

The L44/43 concession located onshore Thailand is pleased to announce that testing of the NSE-H3 well has confirmed the discovery of commercial hydrocarbons in a previously untested volcanic reservoir approximately 45 meters in thickness at 610 meters true vertical depth (TVD). The well is currently pumping through the annulus and free flowing through the casing, 32 degree API oil at a stabilized rate of 840 bopd and a water cut of less than 0.5%. 

At year end 2008, there were no reserves of any category attributed to this shallow volcanic zone. Pressure data and the slightly lower gravity of the crude oil (32 API vs 36 API), confirms this is a distinctly separate pool from the underlying main volcanic reservoir at NSE.

Love this stock.


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## magnale (28 May 2009)

Yes I think we all do , even when it was 23 cents eventually I  had no doubts about it returning to it's  high ! It is such a well run company.


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## grace (28 May 2009)

magnale said:


> Yes I think we all do , even when it was 23 cents eventually I  had no doubts about it returning to it's  high ! It is such a well run company.




Yes, I'll drink to that!  They don't seem to put a foot wrong do they?  I bought this at 50 cents about 2 years ago and I'm pleased to see it back in profit for that time held.  Actually, most of my energy stocks are and I wouldn't part with any of them.  In fact, that is what I mostly hold these days (apart from cash).  I suspect another oil spike on its way.  Just my personal thoughts and of course, with nothing to back it up apart from my gut feel...


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## magnale (29 May 2009)

Yes, I guess :  but if fundamentals  are there ,and there is great management... and  I'm a great admirer of Ted Jacobson. It is terrific to see such a well run company and any problems they have I'm sure they will solve them


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## eddyeagle (29 May 2009)

CVN up another 10% today - the good times keep rolling!

Hartleys have a price target of 90c on this one now...

This is now officially my favourite stock!

Although I have to be careful not to fall in love with any particular stocks as it can burn you!


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## UMike (29 May 2009)

eddyeagle said:


> CVN up another 10% today - the good times keep rolling!
> 
> Hartleys have a price target of 90c on this one now...
> 
> ...



So true.

I took my profits on the close. Might end up regretting it or getting back in on a dip in the mkt.


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## eddyeagle (29 May 2009)

Will be very interesting to see where CVN goes from here. 

In Jan 2008 it hit a high of 77.5c before tumbling and then in May 2008 it hit 80c twice before tumbling!

Anyone got any thoughts?


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## ktrianta (29 May 2009)

eddyeagle said:


> Will be very interesting to see where CVN goes from here.
> 
> In Jan 2008 it hit a high of 77.5c before tumbling and then in May 2008 it hit 80c twice before tumbling!
> 
> Anyone got any thoughts?




My thoughts are that it is a different beast now. More cash in the bank and 2 new recent discoveries which weren't part of the equation in the valuation.

Not sure how high it can go, but a bit of positive sentiment hitting the markets, so maybe 90 cents short term or even $1 if the POO keeps going up.

Fee confident in saying it will break 80 cents soon.


----------



## Rob 17 (30 May 2009)

Yesterdays volume was huge. Looks like someone has taken a big position in CVN at .75 cents.

NSE-H3 was a new Pool Oil Discovery. This is a distinctly separate pool from the underlying main volcanic reservoir at NSE. So the reverses when re calculated should increase.

Saudi Arabia's forecast this week that oil prices could reach $US75 a barrel later this year. This represents a distinct policy shift from the world's largest oil producer. Until recently Saudi Arabia hinted that it would be happy with a lower oil price to help the world economy back on its feet.

In times like this fund managers and people looking to get back in the market will be looking for quality stocks with no debt. CVN fits the bill for me. 

I must say i got in ages ago when the price was almost half. DYOR


----------



## ktrianta (30 May 2009)

What do the chartists think?

Finished on its highs yesterday on huge volume which I think is meant to be very bullish.

is this correct?


----------



## grace (30 May 2009)

ktrianta said:


> What do the chartists think?
> 
> Finished on its highs yesterday on huge volume which I think is meant to be very bullish.
> 
> is this correct?




I can't really chart, but I'll post one for the moment.  A bit of consolidation now would be good I think, before pushing ahead.


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## johannlo (30 May 2009)

I've been bitten several times buying on the tail end of a April's bull run (then getting caught out during the clawback) so despite how attractive this stock is I'm going to wait for the clawback. And if its the one that gets away, so be it. I got to learn some discipline sooner or later


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## JTLP (30 May 2009)

Would love to see a break above 80 and close above 80 sometime next week. I guess we are following the indicators re: Oil and the US on that one, but any break and hold above 80 would be amazing for CVN. Blue sky territory + potential to act as new support would be an excellent springboard.

Volume has been well up as well. A major could be taking a position (reminds me of when JP Morgan took a position). Don't think I've ever seen volumes like this for CVN.


----------



## baboon (30 May 2009)

ktrianta said:


> What do the chartists think?
> 
> Finished on its highs yesterday on huge volume which I think is meant to be very bullish.
> 
> is this correct?




Personally, I use 10 EMA and 30 EMA on a chart.  When the 10 crosses above the 30 and the price is above both MA's I really really like. 

In CVN's case this happens on the 2 year daily, 2 year weekly and EVEN THE 2 year monthly!!!  This is very very powerful in my opinion.  It will take a lot of selling energy to penetrate this move upwards.

Also to support this, I use price and volume analysis.  Taking the 2 year monthly charts, this months (MAY 2009) volume (over 120million) alone is going into much less volume at 70c to 80c which occured in may/june in 2008 (41 and 91 million) and also volume in dec 2007/jan 2008 (106 and 88 million).  This is a very bullish sign too!

I may be wrong but this is my own analysis.  I would just like to say I own this stock so I have a bias.  But one thing is that I really LOVE CVN at the moment! 

Good luck.


----------



## windwalker (31 May 2009)

Like others on this link have been on this one for a while - like others on this link I am smiling.    Sold some CDU to top up and, at the moment, think I did the right thing. I suppose only time will tell it was a smart move but at the moment its looking good


----------



## quarky (1 June 2009)

*(AESUR) Sun Resources $5m Issue to Fund Oil Program in Thailand*
June 01, 2009

(AESUR) SUN RESOURCES $5 

Sydney - Monday - June 1: (RWE Australian Business News) - Sun Resources NL (ASX:SUR) has resolved to raise up to $5m through the issue of 100m shares at 5c each. Hartleys Ltd is broker to the offer. 

The capital raising will ensure Sun is fully funded for its share of seismic costs in relation to Block L20/50, onshore Thailand, in joint venture with Carnarvon Petroleum Ltd (ASX:CVN). 

ENDS 

01-06 1034 

(c) 2009 AAP Finance News Wire. Provided by ProQuest LLC. All rights Reserved.


----------



## wonderrman (1 June 2009)

Interesting time coming up on the chart one would think! I've still got a bit in the stock so will let it run with the stop close by.


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## JTLP (2 June 2009)

Wow..hit 80 cents today before finishing up at .785. Had it broken 80 it would have been blue sky. I'm really thinking CVN needs an announcement to get over this line...seems a tough one to crack. Volume was definitely there today but it felt like people were selling into the momentum. Bit of a wall built up around 80 as well.

Wonder what the rest of the week will bring? Would love to see 80 gone and act as new support.


----------



## doogie_goes_off (2 June 2009)

Chart looks loke cup and handle. Hoping for news like the new discovery north of NSE. Should break 80c then.


----------



## adobee (4 June 2009)

Is anyone expecting this to run much harder than 80c ??
The market cap has double in last few weeks and the broker targets are only 80c-90c.. I havent looked at CVN for a long but think I will jump out around here and wait for a bit of a retrace..


----------



## JTLP (4 June 2009)

adobee said:


> Is anyone expecting this to run much harder than 80c ??
> The market cap has double in last few weeks and the broker targets are only 80c-90c.. I havent looked at CVN for a long but think I will jump out around here and wait for a bit of a retrace..




Hi Adobee,

CVN experienced quite a sell off in the beginning of the day but clawed back nicely to close at its highest price ever of 0.81. This is significant as CVN had tried to break 80 cents 3 times prior to this and failed. The volume has also been well up for this attempted push through and this area is now blue sky. As noted earlier, I am hoping that 80 now acts as support and we dont just fall right back through it. In saying that, I also expect a substantial holder notice or 2 to pop up...which might mean that before this happens (it may not) we might see this continued high volume and increased price. 

Also have to look at the overseas markets and the POO. FWIW, i'm long CVN but if it were me looking to sell, i'd probably pop an order in around .795 to see if that .80 can hold. But eh...i'm a n00b.

JTLP


----------



## Rob 17 (4 June 2009)

I think a substantial holder notice will pop up very soon. Volume has been well up. 16 million went through a few days ago.

DYOR


----------



## baboon (4 June 2009)

adobee said:


> Is anyone expecting this to run much harder than 80c ??
> The market cap has double in last few weeks and the broker targets are only 80c-90c.. I havent looked at CVN for a long but think I will jump out around here and wait for a bit of a retrace..




In my opinion and from my analysis only, I use the high at 80c made in May 2008 and the low at 23c in Nov 2008 and its return to 80c in May 2009.  Its a U shaped chart.  From a book I've read there is a chance that the projected price target is the high subtract the low, plus the high.  In CVN's case it would be 80 - 23 = 57.  Then, 57 + 80 = 137c or $1.37.  So heres my shortish target that will probably be by the end of the year.

My analysis only.  Have a plan if you want to play out this theory, but at your own risk.  CVN is still very promising in my books!


----------



## quarky (4 June 2009)

adobee said:


> I havent looked at CVN for a long but think I will jump out around here and wait for a bit of a retrace..



i did the same.
i jumped out yesterday, after holding for over 1.5 years.
took a handsome gain, but had to risk a lot of money for it.
besides, i was wanting to enter the real estate...but CVN kept me out of that, due to the pool of $$$ i had in there... my best, and only, performing stock in my portfolio (which i'm losing 60-80% of value )

waiting for that re-trace... 





			
				JTLP said:
			
		

> Also have to look at the overseas markets and the POO. FWIW, i'm long CVN but if it were me looking to sell, i'd probably pop an order in around .795 to see if that .80 can hold. But eh...i'm a n00b.



i've had a SELL for 0.795 for a few days and found it hard to sell.
finally, it went through yesterday...and i knew something is on the horizon, i.e. new oil discoveries, POO, etc.
taking that into account, i've always noticed mid-year, profit-takers sell and slow down the market. so, hoping that this would happen...i sold off my CVN parcel.
but i think i might have jumped ship too early...but that's my 20-20 hindsight, as i was getting nervous that the ASX broke 4000+ points and oil was creeping up higher, that something had to give for that 'inevitable' market correction that some talk about.

still...i'm keen on this stock and would jump in, when it drops to about 0.70 - 0.70 for another long term investment.

i really wished i had the guts to jump in at 0.23 several months ago.


----------



## ktrianta (4 June 2009)

baboon said:


> In my opinion and from my analysis only, I use the high at 80c made in May 2008 and the low at 23c in Nov 2008 and its return to 80c in May 2009.  Its a U shaped chart.  From a book I've read there is a chance that the projected price target is the high subtract the low, plus the high.  In CVN's case it would be 80 - 23 = 57.  Then, 57 + 80 = 137c or $1.37.  So heres my shortish target that will probably be by the end of the year.
> 
> My analysis only.  Have a plan if you want to play out this theory, but at your own risk.  CVN is still very promising in my books!




Seem to recall that Garpal Gumnut had an Elliot wave target of around that amount some time prior to the meltdown.

Hope that you are on the money. 

GG, any comment from your charts?


----------



## quarky (5 June 2009)

quarky said:
			
		

> i did the same.
> i jumped out yesterday, after holding for over 1.5 years.



damn. i jumped ship at 0.795
it's up to 0.83 right now.
definitely broke through resistance levels of 0.79 - 0.80
wish i had more patience and a crystal ball...
could have made a bit more.

wonder how far the ASX, POO and CVN can go, considering all the skeptical and cautious talk about the economy, etc.


----------



## Boggo (5 June 2009)

Bought at 41, sold at 58, bought again at 60, trailing with a stop of 10c below the previous close.

One view of it below...

Just my 

(click to expand)


----------



## KurwaJegoMac (5 June 2009)

quarky said:


> damn. i jumped ship at 0.795
> it's up to 0.83 right now.
> definitely broke through resistance levels of 0.79 - 0.80
> wish i had more patience and a crystal ball...
> ...




I made a similar mistake, jumping out a little early. But given the movement in price and the volume supporting it, I've jumped in again at 0.82 with a stop loss to cover me just in case.

Hopefully I don't make the same mistake and sell out too early  Don't have a clue where it might end up, but given how much support there has been recently, it doesn't look like it's running out of steam anytime soon


----------



## quarky (5 June 2009)

Boggo said:


> Bought at 41, sold at 58, bought again at 60, trailing with a stop of 10c below the previous close.
> 
> One view of it below...
> 
> ...



whoah... $1.08+ predictions
(yeah, obviously DYOR, etc.etc.)
in that case, i better jump in now and put my house on it, for a huge take on it and then ride it out until next year.  

i'm just really surprised how well this has gone....but seeing the amount of buyers and volume for it, this looks like it may just find a good support around 0.78 - 0.82 (just my feeling. i don't have charts to back this up)


*sigh*... hope for a retrace, before jumping back in. 
otherwise, look for another oil stock to buy up...but i can't find one as good as CVN.


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## magnale (5 June 2009)

We know it is a really good stock ...why not leave it there for  another year or two ? Just my view ,and I've held this stock for several years , and will cash it when it really has reached its potential


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## Miner (5 June 2009)

magnale said:


> We know it is a really good stock ...why not leave it there for  another year or two ? Just my view ,and I've held this stock for several years , and will cash it when it really has reached its potential




Dear Magnale

It is so wonderful comment you made. I looked into the begining of this thread. Ironically CVN thread was started on *5th June 2006 exactly three years back by YOgi In OZ. *I have reattached the document Yogi In Oz provided three years ago. CVN was ruling at 5 cents. It came down before and went up again.  

I am sure some expert chartists in ASF can present a similar full circle chart for CVN accumulating historical data


But now I am holding it after buying at 40 cents and not complainnig .
I wish you are right as history repeats itself


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## KurwaJegoMac (5 June 2009)

Wow the stock is really launching today touched 0.860 with little pullback... Interesting to see if the stock stays supported at the .80 mark over the next week.

Loving these volumes right now!!


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## Boggo (5 June 2009)

KurwaJegoMac said:


> Wow the stock is really launching today touched 0.860 with little pullback... Interesting to see if the stock stays supported at the .80 mark over the next week.
> 
> Loving these volumes right now!!




Probably going to see a few Friday arvo profit takers in the next hour to close, usual stuff on stocks that are on a run up.


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## Rob 17 (5 June 2009)

This stock is doing very well. Volume has been huge. The chart looks great.  

If we get some good news early next week i think this one might give $1 a shot.  

DYOR


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## KurwaJegoMac (5 June 2009)

Boggo said:


> Probably going to see a few Friday arvo profit takers in the next hour to close, usual stuff on stocks that are on a run up.




You were spot on. Stock pulled back to 0.830. Still a great amount. Let's hope this trend continues


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## JTLP (5 June 2009)

Boggo said:


> Bought at 41, sold at 58, bought again at 60, trailing with a stop of 10c below the previous close.
> 
> One view of it below...
> 
> ...






Boggo said:


> Probably going to see a few Friday arvo profit takers in the next hour to close, usual stuff on stocks that are on a run up.




Thanks for the chart and great call.

Although CVN is in blue sky territory a pullback was always expected (especially with people's uncertainties to hold over the weekend + big run up). Still performing wonderfully though and high volume pushing CVN up is always good to see. I maintain my view that a substantial holder notice or 2 can't be far off.

Oil has to stay at nice levels though. The rising AUD could pose a bit of a problem to the bottom line (although low opex offsets this). Also...the rising revenue factor and SRB come into play...so it may work in our favour. 

We will also have to monitor TSV to see how their Warro well goes. 2.5% royalty would be very handy. This money could also come tax free to us as CVN seeks to offset losses it made back in the old days...


----------



## Motogoon (6 June 2009)

Man, some bold predictions being made on this one, is it just me or does it not seem a bit overcooked to anyone else?!

If you look at a 2 year chart its sufferred some pretty mean pullbacks, .75 to .35, .80 to .25. And that was in a much friendlier economic enviroment with oil at twice the price.

Sure theres been more discoverys but still seems a bit of a stretch to say its gonna just keep on skyrocketing up.

Thats just my opinion tho & i'm often wrong so maybe just keep on buying it up!


----------



## ktrianta (6 June 2009)

Motogoon said:


> Man, some bold predictions being made on this one, is it just me or does it not seem a bit overcooked to anyone else?!
> 
> If you look at a 2 year chart its sufferred some pretty mean pullbacks, .75 to .35, .80 to .25. And that was in a much friendlier economic enviroment with oil at twice the price.
> 
> ...




Agree that a pullback is inevitable. It just can't keep going like this.
Still waiting for a blow off top to $1.10- $1.20 before I consider selling, otherwise I am happy to hold long term.


----------



## KurwaJegoMac (6 June 2009)

Motogoon said:


> Man, some bold predictions being made on this one, is it just me or does it not seem a bit overcooked to anyone else?!
> 
> If you look at a 2 year chart its sufferred some pretty mean pullbacks, .75 to .35, .80 to .25. And that was in a much friendlier economic enviroment with oil at twice the price.
> 
> ...




That's a good point, however I think it's worth taking a look at the volumes - with regards to the 0.80 to 0.25 pullback I assume you're referring to the period May 08 to Dec 08 roughly? At its 0.80 peak on May 16th, weekly volume stood at about 24.71 mil. In the fortnight leading up to the peak, weekly volume remained at roughly the same levels. 

Fast forward to today, volumes in the past few weeks have oscillated between 20 - 40 mil. Given that the weekly volumes have almost doubled and have remained relatively sustained, I think that's an encouraging sign that perhaps this time there's enough support to remain above the 0.80 mark a little longer and perhaps even push on higher. 

That's just my  and as always, DYOR.


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## magnale (6 June 2009)

KurwaJegoMac said:


> That's a good point, however I think it's worth taking a look at the volumes - with regards to the 0.80 to 0.25 pullback I assume you're referring to the period May 08 to Dec 08 roughly? At its 0.80 peak on May 16th, weekly volume stood at about 24.71 mil. In the fortnight leading up to the peak, weekly volume remained at roughly the same levels.
> 
> Fast forward to today, volumes in the past few weeks have oscillated between 20 - 40 mil. Given that the weekly volumes have almost doubled and have remained relatively sustained, I think that's an encouraging sign that perhaps this time there's enough support to remain above the 0.80 mark a little longer and perhaps even push on higher.
> Yes I  so agree with all you have written


----------



## baboon (6 June 2009)

quarky said:


> i did the same.
> i jumped out yesterday, after holding for over 1.5 years.
> took a handsome gain, but had to risk a lot of money for it.
> besides, i was wanting to enter the real estate...but CVN kept me out of that, due to the pool of $$$ i had in there... my best, and only, performing stock in my portfolio (which i'm losing 60-80% of value )
> ...




Its really interesting that last comment of yours.  I go through that feeling so many times.  In hindsight 0.23 was a big opportunity but at the time you would have thought it was going lower, maybe to 21c to fill that evil gap!!

I try not to get too caught up with this cos it does my head in!  

Heres a thing, do you have the guts to jump in at 83c+???  or even if it drops to 70c do you still have the guts?  What if next week it goes to $1+?  If that were too happen you'd bang your head again!  I'm trying not to let these things affect me but its hard at times!  

Good luck anyways.


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## KurwaJegoMac (7 June 2009)

baboon said:


> Its really interesting that last comment of yours.  I go through that feeling so many times.  In hindsight 0.23 was a big opportunity but at the time you would have thought it was going lower, maybe to 21c to fill that evil gap!!
> 
> I try not to get too caught up with this cos it does my head in!
> 
> ...




That's a good point. Sometimes a stock doesn't retrace and you certainly don't want to be left going "what if...". But I guess it comes down to your risk tolerance and risk management procedures. Personally, if I think a stock has potential I take the plunge - even if it's hitting new highs just like CVN is. Given great fundamentals, the discovery of the oil wells, great volume and strong support over .80c, this to me is a no-brainer. If I've made a mistake and timed this one badly and the trend reverses, so be it. My stop losses and trailing sells should handle a reversal.

Disclaimer: As always DYOR. Also, what I've written is not a stab at quarky - everyone has their own trading plan and risk management guidelines, my post reflects mine. I bought into CVN at 0.820 on Friday - good or bad move, time will tell


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## magnale (7 June 2009)

I think  KurwaJegoMac has made such  good points :  well run company, etc . It will of course have profit takers.... but on the whole it eventually returns. I suppose having been in it for some time I now don't worry too much if it goes down . I didn't though buy more when it was 23cents ( I wasn't sure if even good companies would survive this  global crisis! ) My thoughts ..good luck !


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## hoppo (8 June 2009)

Hi there, we bought these stocks 18 years ago when they were 10 cents and they just nose dived the week after we bought them. Now we are glad we just hung on  to them.


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## hoppo (8 June 2009)

Hi, I am new to this forum. Looking for advice. We bought our stocks with a freind years ago. How do we go about splitting these shares? So we can make our own decisions on it.?


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## KurwaJegoMac (8 June 2009)

How exactly did you purchase those shares together? Are they under some sort of joint fund or did you and your friend combine your money and buy the stocks under one of your accounts?


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## hoppo (9 June 2009)

Yes we combined money and bought in the two names, over the years we got a couple of dividends cheques, but they were only small and in joint names so we didn't do anything with them. We never expected anything to come of it.  They were bought back in 1990 I think, at 10 cents.


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## KurwaJegoMac (9 June 2009)

I'm not sure exactly what I can write that wouldn't constitute financial advice, but I believe off market transfers into two seperately owned accounts is one option - but as always DYOR and consult a licenced financial advisor/accountant.

I would strongly suggest creating a new topic on the forum describing your situation - you'll be able to receive more concrete advice because a few people on this forum are licenced advisors or accountants.


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## Rob 17 (10 June 2009)

Looks like cvn is holding up well. Volume is very solid.  

 I wonder who has been doing all the buying over the past two weeks 


DYOR.


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## KurwaJegoMac (10 June 2009)

I'm surprised to see that no shareholder notice has been posted yet. Volumes have been solid and at very high levels. Good support of the price at the moment, i'm thinking that the stock could be preparing for the next leg up. 

I'm interested to hear anyone else's thoughts?


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## Garpal Gumnut (10 June 2009)

KurwaJegoMac said:


> I'm surprised to see that no shareholder notice has been posted yet. Volumes have been solid and at very high levels. Good support of the price at the moment, i'm thinking that the stock could be preparing for the next leg up.
> 
> I'm interested to hear anyone else's thoughts?




I would not necessarily agree, on a technical basis.

The way forward is uncertain on a daily chart, enclosed, a candlestick chart which shows some indecision presently in this uptrend. A weekly not included may be forming a spinning top.

Should you notice a bearish black pattern on your candlestick chart of this beaut little runner, it may be time to question whether CVN is going to retrace for a while.

I do like candles. So illuminating when there is doubt.

gg


----------



## KurwaJegoMac (10 June 2009)

Garpal Gumnut said:


> I would not necessarily agree, on a technical basis.
> 
> The way forward is uncertain on a daily chart, enclosed, a candlestick chart which shows some indecision presently in this uptrend. A weekly not included may be forming a spinning top.
> 
> ...




Thank you for taking the time to post your analysis Garpal Gumnut. I'm still a beginner when it comes to technical analysis so your warning is very much welcome! It'll be interesting to see what forms over the coming days.


----------



## Garpal Gumnut (11 June 2009)

KurwaJegoMac said:


> Thank you for taking the time to post your analysis Garpal Gumnut. I'm still a beginner when it comes to technical analysis so your warning is very much welcome! It'll be interesting to see what forms over the coming days.




Yes, its exciting watching a good runner like cvn pan out.

I've been watching closely and noted an amazing pattern since its recent lows close to 25c.

It seems to have found a support/resistance at 15c intervals   25,40,55,70 and now 85c.

It may be useful for traders watching this little gem, if it should retrace, or if it were to break above 85c it may signal an opportunity to go long again.

gg


----------



## KurwaJegoMac (11 June 2009)

Garpal Gumnut said:


> Yes, its exciting watching a good runner like cvn pan out.
> 
> I've been watching closely and noted an amazing pattern since its recent lows close to 25c.
> 
> ...




That is a very interesting observation. Have you seen a support/resistance pattern like this before? Would it be unreasonable to conclude that provided the stock doesn't fall below the 70c resistance level, it would be worth holding long?


----------



## Garpal Gumnut (11 June 2009)

KurwaJegoMac said:


> That is a very interesting observation. Have you seen a support/resistance pattern like this before? Would it be unreasonable to conclude that provided the stock doesn't fall below the 70c resistance level, it would be worth holding long?




You often see this pattern but usually at significant price points, 10c and multiples, $1, $2, $10, $25 and multiples of $10.

Look at some of my posts on RIO from last year, and you will see where that stock obeyed these important price levels.

A stop loss, or entry is an individual thing.

It depends on your timescale and trading horizon.

gg


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## KurwaJegoMac (11 June 2009)

It's interesting to note a similar pattern emerged between July 07 to Nov 07. From what I can gather, support/resistance occured at 25c, 35c, 45c and 65c. Bear in mind i'm a beginner when it comes to TA but to me the resemblence is uncanny! Of course past performance is not an indicator of future performance and all that, so it may be an invalid comparison :


----------



## Garpal Gumnut (11 June 2009)

KurwaJegoMac said:


> It's interesting to note a similar pattern emerged between July 07 to Nov 07. From what I can gather, support/resistance occured at 25c, 35c, 45c and 65c. Bear in mind i'm a beginner when it comes to TA but to me the resemblence is uncanny! Of course past performance is not an indicator of future performance and all that, so it may be an invalid comparison :




Mate, we might have to send Joe a $20 note each and request him to remove both these posts.

Thanks for pointing that out.

Interesting.

gg


----------



## prawn_86 (11 June 2009)

Garpal Gumnut said:


> Mate, we might have to send Joe a $20 note each and request him to remove both these posts.




Im sure any moderator will oblige if enough of the green crosses our palms 

You can spare more than a $20 gg


----------



## Garpal Gumnut (11 June 2009)

prawn_86 said:


> Im sure any moderator will oblige if enough of the green crosses our palms
> 
> You can spare more than a $20 gg




lol

We can run but cannot hide!
OK $100 is yours if you delete all posts tonight about CVN.
Do we need to let the ASX know about this??
lol

gg


----------



## Garpal Gumnut (13 June 2009)

The chart for CVN is very interesting at present.

It is in a trading range, and if it breaks up or down, the direction may signify a further buying opportunity or time to take profits.

Its upward move has not been matched by an increase in volume and sellers are appearing as it approaches 90c.

CVN will provide many text book interpretations in future TA books, in its behaviour over the last 18 months.

gg


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## KurwaJegoMac (14 June 2009)

Garpal Gumnut said:


> The chart for CVN is very interesting at present.
> 
> It is in a trading range, and if it breaks up or down, the direction may signify a further buying opportunity or time to take profits.
> 
> ...




Personally, i'm ignoring the volumes on the 28th and 29th of May as they are anomolies due to the announcement of the discovery of oil wells. I feel that they're not indicative of the real volume. If you look at the volume for the past 2 weeks, it's been sustained all through the price increases. Looking at a 21 day moving average, my opinion is that the volume has supported the price move. 

I think that the upper resistance line you drew will be key - my belief is that the current volumes will push against the resistance line once more and if the sellers overwhelm the buyers again, without closing above the upper resistance, we'll be heading into a pullback period. 

We'll have to see what the appetite is for this stock this week - it's still a bit too sideways for my liking.


----------



## JTLP (17 June 2009)

CVN has been hammered these last 2 days. Volume is sitll up but I suspect a fair amount of profit taking has been in order (it has had a fantastic run for the last 3 months)...although intraday it is a bit disappointing to see 80 cents didn't hold as support.

Still waiting on drill results...if they aren't good then CVN could be in trouble...


----------



## KurwaJegoMac (17 June 2009)

Yeah I was hoping there'd be some support above the 0.80c mark. The drops over the past 2 days have been really strong, I agree with you about the profit taking. I think yesterday people crystalised some gains and today we're seeing a bit of a panic sell due to yesterdays fall. 

Oh well, at least I get a chance to take advantage of this pullback and pick up some more stock.

*Fingers crossed i'm right about the pullback though... or it's lookout belooowwwwww *


----------



## Aargh! (17 June 2009)

I have been reducing my position over the last two weeks and completely sold out on Monday in the mid eighties. I believe CVN has run past fair value and is in 'blue sky' territory, my reasons are as follows.

Commsec (not sure if includes latest discoveries) P/E 24.0. Even with latest wells it is still above fair value. EPS growth still looks good 2009 = 3.5c, 2010 = 10.3c, 2011 = 17.3c. 

Pattersons broker report (19/5/09) target price $0.75 inclusive of L44-W @ 1,220 BOPD. Does not include upside of this new discovery. Note the NSE-H3 discovery (28/5/09) @ 840 BOPD not included in above target price.

POO has increased dramatically in the last few months, I question if it is due for a pullback. I'm no technical analyst but I am concerned when I look at the recent run in CVN, it makes me nervous.

For now I am happy to sit on the sidelines and watch this one come down again. When I think it has reached fair value on its current operations and profits then I won't hesitate to get back in as I still hold this company in high regard with its future potential.


----------



## doogie_goes_off (17 June 2009)

Halved my position on fundamental grounds. Looks fractionally overpriced. I think some people will probably sell on the fact after drilling results and then maybe I could get the parcel back at ~65c, obviously thats pure speculation and if it runs i've still got one foot on the train.


----------



## KurwaJegoMac (17 June 2009)

Thanks for posting your FA guys  Some good points to think about. Will have to watch this one closely.


----------



## Rob 17 (18 June 2009)

Looks like there is support at 80 cents. Someone thinks theres value still in this one.

We should get some results next week which will consolidate things 

Happy to be holding

DYOR


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## money maker (19 June 2009)

http://www.cnbc.com/id/15840232?video=1156591949&play=1


CVN mentioned at end of interview..........


----------



## mkelpie (19 June 2009)

Apart from ROK and CVN, what was the third, I couldn't catch it.
.................................................................................


----------



## ktrianta (20 June 2009)

mkelpie said:


> Apart from ROK and CVN, what was the third, I couldn't catch it.
> .................................................................................




if it was the same clip I saw it was Michael Langford - Quam Securities, Senior Strategist. The 3 shares he mentioned were ROC, CVN and NDO.


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## Miner (20 June 2009)

I read a report on CVN at Bell Poterberg Securities

Surprising comment : From Buy to Sell
_
Carnarvon Petroleum (CVN) Sell
A happy return Prev: Buy
Johan Hedstrom"  jhedstrom@bellpotter.com.au
INVESTMENT DATA
Share Price $0.87
Issued Capital
Ordinary shares 672.9m
Options/other 10.0m
Fully diluted 682.9m
Market Capitalisation $594.1m
52-week low/high $0.26 / $0.885
Valuation $0.68
Price Target (12 months) $0.68
Return on Equity (FY08) 60%
The top 20 shareholders owned 32.9% of
shares on issue (as of September 18, 2008)


CVN S&P/ASX Small Resources
*CVN has performed very strongly in recent months, up ~235% from the low in March 2009. We are changing our recommendation to Sell from Buy as the stock is now trading at a premium to our valuation of $0.68.* CVN’s share price has even surpassed our upside case of $0.83 (using an oil price of US$100 from 2012). With recent successful oil testing a month ago and another test upcoming, the share price now reflects anticipation of further success. We like the company in all respects but consider it prudent to take some profits after such a big run_."

It is a suprised comment as rarely BPS recommends sell but rarely their BUY turned out to be a real BUY any way 

I have been very disappointed with BPS recommendations so now I try to see if their sell means buy for me and vice versa  

CVN holders and Oil Specialists / Chartists  what do you think ? Do you agree with BPS observation ? 

Full report is attached. DYOR 
Disclaimer : I do hold CVN a very small parcel however.


----------



## JTLP (20 June 2009)

Miner said:


> I read a report on CVN at Bell Poterberg Securities
> 
> Surprising comment : From Buy to Sell
> _
> ...




Hi Miner...good to see you back and thanks for posting that...very interesting. I know Bell Potter have been telling clients to lighten on CVN since this run up..but I am not entirely convinced. This run and current hovering in the 80's is hopefully a building block for future activities. As long as CVN can maintain support above 80 cents and the market doesn't implode (although I fear number 2) then we can hopefully look forward to future upside. Add to this all the talk of expansion from Ted as well as the latest round of drilling results and an increasing Oil Price (although high AUD offsets this)...and CVN can still deliver. This new field find is very encouraging and if more decent results turn up from this then this oil play just got a whole lot sweeter. Plus TSV's Warro drilling (CVN 2.5% royalty) is looking the goods and we might see some income from that (which can offset against capital losses in Aus!)

So all in all we need the following to maintain this price and go beyond:
- Positive drilling results
- New acquistions/farm-ins
- Good news from TSV
- Increasing Oil Prices
- World Markets not imploding


----------



## KurwaJegoMac (21 June 2009)

From a fundamental point of view, the general consensus for valuations range between 0.65c to 0.70c and so you'd classify it as a 'sell' as it's overbought. But at the end of the day, the market will do whatever it wants and right now I see a stock that has continuously strong volumes with the price supported above 0.80c. There is still a lot of interest in the stock and over the past few days buyers have overwhelmed the sellers quite significantly (especially on Wednesday).

If volumes start to ease and the price dips below 0.80c then i'll be reviewing my holdings. But until then I think CVN is a good hold.


----------



## Miner (21 June 2009)

Thanks JTLP and Kurga for very encouraging notes on CVN.
I will continue to hold and watch its performances. 



Cheers


----------



## Aargh! (22 June 2009)

Miner said:


> I read a report on CVN at Bell Poterberg Securities
> 
> Surprising comment : From Buy to Sell
> _
> ...




Thanks Miner. This report backs up my previous post and covers the same reasons as to why I have sold my holding.

The SP is in dangerous territory and based on what they might have instead of what they have and are producing.


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## Aargh! (22 June 2009)

CVN on shakey ground this morning. First time in a long time when sellers have out numbered buyers. Last week was sticking to 6 million units under buyers and 2-3 mill for sellers. It's currently 2.8 mill buyers 3.8 mill sellers and under 80c.


----------



## Rob 17 (22 June 2009)

Looks like CVN has held up well. Up 3.66% on strong vol.

Seems like short term traders are talking this one down hoping to jump back in 

DYOR


----------



## ktrianta (22 June 2009)

Hit in the morning, then the buyers swarm to it in the arvo.

It seems to be holding and consolidating above its previous highs. Not sure what this means from a rechnical perspective, but get the feeling that it is ready to blow off to a new high(at least that is what I hope).


----------



## johannlo (22 June 2009)

OK a newbie here but from a simple TA perspective, am I correct in saying that - MACD cross above in sell signal
- low momentum / volumes

Suggests a fall in the short term? I know DYOR and charts are not always correct etc. etc.

I attach the chart I'm going off below. PLEASE THUMP ME ON THE HEAD if I'm wrong in my interpretation


----------



## JTLP (22 June 2009)

CVN's breaks through 80 cents is quite disconcerting IMO. It just seems to fall through with ease. Today's volume and push to 85 cents was nice (can either be attributed to people getting on board pending an ann tonight or somebody taking a large stake) but I really wish 80 cents could hold a lot better.


----------



## ktrianta (23 June 2009)

JTLP said:


> CVN's breaks through 80 cents is quite disconcerting IMO. It just seems to fall through with ease. Today's volume and push to 85 cents was nice (can either be attributed to people getting on board pending an ann tonight or somebody taking a large stake) but I really wish 80 cents could hold a lot better.





Held 80 cents nicely today despite the POO falling and Wall St. going for a dump.

Just looks strong atm.


----------



## mkelpie (23 June 2009)

ktrianta said:


> Held 80 cents nicely today despite the POO falling and Wall St. going for a dump.
> 
> Just looks strong atm.




It certainly did, particularly compared to the likes of NDO,ROC and even WPL.

If there was a potential buyout of CVN, gazing into a crystal ball what kind of price could it hit?


----------



## Garpal Gumnut (24 June 2009)

CVN is in a very bullish pattern.

For the believers this flag is all green.

A chart is enclosed. 

gg


----------



## johannlo (24 June 2009)

What makes the above pattern bullish? (sorry I now zilch about candlestick analysis) as the trendlines are going down


----------



## wonderrman (24 June 2009)

johannlo said:


> What makes the above pattern bullish? (sorry I now zilch about candlestick analysis) as the trendlines are going down




An explanation of a bullish flag pattern can be found here .... http://www.leavittbrothers.com/education/chart_patterns/flag_bullish.cfm.

Wonder.


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## JTLP (24 June 2009)

Nice close for CVN today...and another good push forward. Whatever is lurking in the wings must be good...she has had some consistent high volume and managed to maintain a ride in the 80's for a little while.

As said earlier...still waiting on substantial holder notices as well as drilling results/updates and acquisitions from Teddy!

If US tanks hold onto your hat!

JTLP


----------



## Rob 17 (24 June 2009)

JTLP said:


> Whatever is lurking in the wings must be good...




You would think that there was plenty of time to build a holding. Looks like someone is getting in before a "big" announcement. 

DYOR


----------



## mkelpie (24 June 2009)

Rob 17 said:


> You would think that there was plenty of time to build a holding. Looks like someone is getting in before a "big" announcement.
> 
> DYOR




It's been a while since their last news post. Usually 3 updates per month, nothing for 4 weeks  A nice piece of news would send it into orbit.


----------



## ktrianta (24 June 2009)

wonderrman said:


> An explanation of a bullish flag pattern can be found here .... http://www.leavittbrothers.com/education/chart_patterns/flag_bullish.cfm.
> 
> Wonder.




Thanks for that. Good explaination. Also said that the break out when it comes will be equal to the initial breakout. If you take $0.44 cents as the point of the initial break out then it is mid 80's now, so one would expect a target of $1.30 or thereabouts.

Is my reading of it correct?


----------



## johannlo (25 June 2009)

Thanks for that link.

So if we're seeing symmetrical triangles in an upswing BUT the macd and smas are crossing (bad cross), whats the correct 'textbook' interpretation?


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## Rob 17 (25 June 2009)

We should test .90cents some time today. 

Joint venture partner was up 6% at the end of trade on the Toronto Stock Exchange.

DYOR


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## JTLP (25 June 2009)

Rob 17 said:


> We should test .90cents some time today.
> 
> Joint venture partner was up 6% at the end of trade on the Toronto Stock Exchange.
> 
> DYOR




Don't know if it has been said before here...but it is very difficult to lob CVN and POE (tsx) together. Yes they are working on the same project in Thailand, but POE have other interests (Swan Lake Oil Sands or something like that from memory) as well as another wholly owned concession in Thailand and expensive, inefficient operations in Indonesia.

CVN basically have the Thailand concessions atm...


----------



## Rob 17 (25 June 2009)

JTLP said:


> Don't know if it has been said before here...but it is very difficult to lob CVN and POE (tsx) together. Yes they are working on the same project in Thailand, but POE have other interests (Swan Lake Oil Sands or something like that from memory) as well as another wholly owned concession in Thailand and expensive, inefficient operations in Indonesia.
> 
> CVN basically have the Thailand concessions atm...




Good point JTLP........

Dont think it will test .90 today. Afternoon will be interesting.


DYOR


----------



## fuzzy1 (26 June 2009)

Hey Guys,

New to aussie stock forums, have been in this stock since 5 cents in and out on the way up and watched it move along quite nicely, good news keeps getting better, due announcement soon. Interesting Michael langford from Quam sec mentioned possible TO any thoughts guys?


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## magnale (27 June 2009)

Sorry to show my ignorance,but what is TO and who is Michael Langford?  Thanks for  all your help ..


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## KurwaJegoMac (27 June 2009)

TO stands for take-over and Michael Langford is a senior strategist at Quam Securities. He was on cnbc and spoke a little about CVN and other similar-cap companies and thinks they're going to continue being strong. Money Maker found the clip, you can watch the interview on his post:

https://www.aussiestockforums.com/forums/showpost.php?p=449419&postcount=1044


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## Garpal Gumnut (27 June 2009)

I enclose a chart of CVN, a point and figure chart.

The pf charts tend to display important support resistance lines, take the noise out of price movement and don't concentrate on time as much as price movement.

It looks very good for CVN and I would not be surprised if an upward movement were to ensue.

That recent bearish flag appears on the pf chart and resistance is being challenged at present.

A rise may signify a significant upward move.

gg


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## JTLP (30 June 2009)

This will surely support GG's theory of an upward movement tomorrow (provided world markets hold)...although there has been a lot less volume lately:



> CALGARY, ALBERTA--(Marketwire - June 29, 2009) - Pan Orient Energy Corp. (TSX VENTUREOE) -
> 
> THAILAND
> 
> ...




All exciting news no doubt =)


----------



## Rob 17 (30 June 2009)

Not the results we were looking for with NSE I1.



NSE-J1 & J2 Development wells 

This one looks more promising.

The NSE-J1 and NSE-J2 development wells have been drilled to total depth within the main volcanic objective from the same surface pad location in the east-central portion of the NSE Central fault compartment. Both wells experienced significant drilling fluid losses (an indicator of good permeability) while drilling within the target zones. At this particular drill pad, testing and drilling were not possible due to the limited size of the drill pad. Testing of both wells is to commence shortly, once the drilling rig has moved off location to L44-W2. 


With oil holding at $70 US CVN should be able to maintain it share price. Fingers crossed.

DYOR


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## ktrianta (30 June 2009)

Suspect that the market was hoping for better.  Likely to see some profit taking. Lets hope that 80 cents holds today.


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## Miner (30 June 2009)

JTLP said:


> This will surely support GG's theory of an upward movement tomorrow (provided world markets hold)...although there has been a lot less volume lately:
> 
> 
> 
> All exciting news no doubt =)




JTLP
you are on the money and ahead of ASX announcement released on CVN (attached) 

What are the six numbers for tonight mate ?

Keep it up


----------



## kenny (30 June 2009)

Is this a "Sell on Fact" experience we are seeing or is it more a continued response to recent broker assessments of CVN being fully priced at these levels?

POE was down a bit after the announcement too. Did we really expect a new field or something better??

I'm open to suggestions.

Cheers,

Kenny

Disc. Long time CVN holder.


----------



## JTLP (30 June 2009)

Thanks Miner!

I was right at the start of the day : about a push forward...but looking an hour into the trading it would appear people are not happy with this ann. NSE-I1 is exciting for 2 reasons: 
- It is an untested volcanic reservoir
- It has not been calculated in the 2008 reserves

I don't think people have fully comprehended what CVN have here in terms of fields and wells. They are now going to target another part of NSE-I1 and in the event of more success...3-4 future drilling locations will be established. So in total we have the potential for 6 new drilling locations and oil oil oil! 

Bo-Rang 1/2 also sounds like they could get something commercial happening. They infer some good feelings within the ann.

NSE-J1 + J2 + L44-W2 should return some nice gains for CVN (with the former being 2 development wells and the latter being an appraisal well). I am looking for a strike rate of 2/3 from these.

And finally Miner, the numbers for tonight are:
5, 14, 16, 26, 29, 37


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## mkelpie (30 June 2009)

Sometimes it seems people ain't happy with CVN announcements unless a Saudi is found 

I reckon this is some short term profit taking which will be followed by steady growth up to 90


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## Bushrat (30 June 2009)

Short term turbulence. In the last few weeks there have been some sizable trades on the buy side go through. These are not fund managers expecting to sell out at 90 cents. I'm looking forward to March next year when the next resource size is confirmed.. should get CVN close to $1.30 if not before then...if the POO remains where it is or improves..
Good to see it held 78c. I'm hoping weekly volume will be >30million and Fridays close >85.5 to maintain the momentum.


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## Ghetto23 (2 July 2009)

Is it profit takers after the end of the financial year? Worse than expected announcement? Overpriced stock? Majors buying up?

Will see if there is resistance at 68c.


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## adds (2 July 2009)

Good question Ghetto, I wouldn't mind hearing from someone who's been following this one and has done the fundamentals.

From a technical perspective is that a gap I can see between 0.65 and 0.68? Stochastic has been showing divergence and that combined with eofy and profit takers may be the reason for the drop.... It may have another down day left in it to fill the gap and to oversell the rsi a little more... Just my point of view, would like to hear from others.


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## doogie_goes_off (2 July 2009)

Overpriced at current production rate IMO, the hard bit is knowing when to jump back in because 'new discovery' announcements may change the picture significantly. <65c would be a probable buy trigger for me even though I still hold some "sleepers"


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## Aargh! (2 July 2009)

doogie_goes_off said:


> Overpriced at current production rate IMO, the hard bit is knowing when to jump back in because 'new discovery' announcements may change the picture significantly. <65c would be a probable buy trigger for me even though I still hold some "sleepers"




I agree. One of the broker reports from the Carnarvon website recently had a valuation of 70-80c. When new discovery was made they went into blue sky territory $1.20. I would post the reports but having dramas with Acrobat. 

http://www.carnarvon.com.au/


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## glendem2 (2 July 2009)

Technically CVN broke support decisively at 77c and is heading for the next level around 66-70c. I am looking for another 1-2 days pullback. Stoc (27) and RSI (40) need to fall below 20 and 30 respectively BEFORE I would consider Buying back in.

In 2008, CVN fell from 74c in Jan08 to 44c in Mar08 and then retested the High in May08 at 80c before falling to 23c six months later in Nov08

A 50% retrace of the 66c rise gives a target of 55c, which was support on May11 the day before the new Thai Oil find news release on Tuesday12th May

I'm watching 66c and 55c as next entry levels


----------



## johannlo (2 July 2009)

I'm with you targeting 65c personally which is the next level of support.

Chart does look like its got a bit more retracing left to my newbie eyes, SMA just crossed bearishly as well and volumes increasing whilst price continues to slide.

If the stoch's look like crossing that will be the signal I'm looking for + the resistance levels mentioned already. They're definitely headed well towards the oversold zone.


----------



## baboon (2 July 2009)

Volume in the past few down days are around 7million daily. Now I personally think this is a great re-entry opportunity right now. The price is going down into the 16 million volume on the 29th of may. Also on the 12th of may there was 18 million daily volume (68cent high). So the price at the moment is going down into very high volume days. IMO a good time to slowly buy back in the 68-75 range. The weekly 10EMA and 30EMA are trending up too. CVN are still in the cash and still pumping the oil outta the ground.

Good luck.


----------



## JTLP (2 July 2009)

The last time volume was high was when JP Morgan were involved. If you look at one of the days the Candle went from like 70 cents down to .610 and back again. Whoever was recently buying into CVN was pushing the price well beyond a reasonable value...there is no doubting that.

CVN is a great company with fantastic management and a very bright future...but things may have run up a little too fast too quickly for them. A pullback into the high 60's/70's should be good for the next leg up...it may also allow another insto to take a stake and building a nice position.

I suspect a lot of stop losses getting hit now as well + the Sell report from Bell Potter bringing things back into line.


----------



## adds (3 July 2009)

Gap has been filled and a 'hammer' candle has formed (this is a bullish reversal candle) and stochastic starting to turn. I've taken a small position with stop in place. Dyor.


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## johannlo (3 July 2009)

Thanks for spotting and sharing the hammer pattern.

Agreed the stochs look good now.

Monitoring closely myself, its more of a dilemma what to sell to fund this one lol


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## Miner (3 July 2009)

Some times it pays to believe on ownself.

For a change it appeared Bell Potter SELL recommendation for CVN posted by me was right 

I would have saved some paper loss on selling at the recommendation but I am no brainer .


----------



## Garpal Gumnut (3 July 2009)

I work on the premise that all brokers are wrong and that fundamental analysis is a load of hogwash.

So I am a contrarian in relation to the preceding posts.

I have no funnymentalist reason to account for the fall in price of CVN.

It has had a great run, and on chartist perceptions was due for a retracement.

It has retraced exactly 38.2% from its recent low to high on Fibonnaci lines.

My guess, and it is a guess , is that this is a wave 2 of an elliott 5 wave.

So my stop loss is at 65c.

I note that even though it has fallen considerably that on each days trade the buyers come in and push the close beyond the midpoint of the daily bar.

So , funnymentalists, for wahatever reason those in the know let you know, make up your own minds. Sell to a chartist, its good use of money.

As a chartist, unless this moves below 65c its still in play

gg


----------



## johnnyg (3 July 2009)

Wave 2's or B's _normally_ retrace between 50-61.8% of the prior advance. In strong trends the retrace can be shallower.

If you look at the time taken to complete your wave 1, wave 2 is quite short in comparison, symmetry always adds confidence to a count.

Here's how I think it could play out (had to post a weekly chart as with a daily I couldn't look further enough to the right)

Looking at the chart if we get that 3 wave decline looks like we might have a large cup and handle pattern. Very bullish.


----------



## Garpal Gumnut (4 July 2009)

johnnyg said:


> Wave 2's or B's _normally_ retrace between 50-61.8% of the prior advance. In strong trends the retrace can be shallower.
> 
> If you look at the time taken to complete your wave 1, wave 2 is quite short in comparison, symmetry always adds confidence to a count.
> 
> ...




I respect your analysis but just thought it uncanny the retracement of 38.2

I'd still sell if it pokes blow 65 and catch it on the way back up.

My bet is that it will take off again.

gg


----------



## Miner (4 July 2009)

Dear GG and Johnny

Which planets are you from ?

My Good ness such a wealth of knowledge. 

Half of it though not understood by me (not being a chartist) but at least inferring between your hi tech words and graphs that  both of you are in due respect very knowledgable persons and basically  you are saying the CVN price will come down at 65 cents and then rise again.  

And again hats off to you guys for the great posting and it is a serious appreciation. 

I am still holding CVN as reading its reports I believe CVN has the potential  and strength to rise up with one more discovery which is not driven by any mathematics correlation and pure engineering.  CVN is (IMO) not a fly by night operator so I am looking into company's strength in this matter. 

Please do correct (educate) me if my readings are wrong.


----------



## Garpal Gumnut (4 July 2009)

Miner said:


> Dear GG and Johnny
> 
> Which planets are you from ?
> 
> ...




Thanks Miner.

Sometimes us chartists feel like the one eyed man in the land of the blind.

We can see on the charts the big guys selling out when the brokers are conning the little guys in to buying.

Never ever trust a broker.

I'd still sell cvn though if it goes below 65c.

And in spite of my rhetoric I do read your funnymentalist analysis!! Much appreciated.

gg


----------



## johnnyg (4 July 2009)

Miner said:


> You are saying the CVN price will come down at 65 cents and then rise again.
> 
> Please do correct (educate) me if my readings are wrong.




As above thanks for the kind words Miner, however I wouldn't call myself extremely knowledgeable. Just a beginner with plenty to learn. 

No one knows exactly what the price will do, we can only give ourselves the best opportunity to take part if your analysis is proven correct, all the while minimizing your risk as much as possible.

Cheers John.


----------



## adds (6 July 2009)

As per my previous post so far it looks as though the reversal could be playing out. Not to bad on a red day when the overall market is down 1%+.


----------



## doogie_goes_off (6 July 2009)

Good support at ~70c, will be interesting to see if the reversal holds up or if 65c gets tested.


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## Garpal Gumnut (6 July 2009)

I wouldn't too pessimistic about CVN.

This could be accumulation.

It looks like a flag and this CVN holder wouldn't be surprised to see it run up again.

gg


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## kenny (7 July 2009)

Not sure if this has been posted yet already. Wise Owl has come on board the CVN analysis train with an initial coverage statement.

Appreciate any comments.

Cheers,

Kenny




> *CVN - Canarvon Petroleum Ltd  *	 Issue Date 29/06/2009
> 
> *Recommendation 	Spec Buy*
> First Recommended 	29-Jun-2009
> ...


----------



## johannlo (7 July 2009)

Yes been holding at the high 60s/low 70s w/ decent volumes, buy side stacking up and stochs turning positive. 

Can any good chartists spot the pattern being formed here? (I'm a newbie so with the volatiliy of last few weeks can't recognise any shapes other than maybe larger head and shoulders). I have noticed we have had 3 days in a row of bearish engulfing candles, you'd think that (as stochs indicate) the selloff has be starting to run out of steam in absence of any bad news on the company fundamentals / upcoming results still to be revealed.

I'm unclear about why the above flag forming is bullish or indicates a reversal.


----------



## Motogoon (9 July 2009)

Motogoon said:


> Man, some bold predictions being made on this one, is it just me or does it not seem a bit overcooked to anyone else?!
> 
> If you look at a 2 year chart its sufferred some pretty mean pullbacks, .75 to .35, .80 to .25. And that was in a much friendlier economic enviroment with oil at twice the price.
> 
> ...




Looks like i can stand by my post on this one so far.

I notice its gone all quiet on here now its started going down, even the posts have followed the same pattern as the last rise & pullback. On the way up theres 5-10 posts a day saying "next stop $1-$1.30" etc... pause at the top & they change to "due for a slight pullback before carrying on up on its merry way" then it keeps going down & it all goes quiet.

My prediction is that it still could get hammered down a bit yet, like i said in my last post tho thats just my opinion & i often get it wrong & it may turn out that now is the perfect time to buy before it shoots up!


----------



## Aargh! (9 July 2009)

Motogoon said:


> Looks like i can stand by my post on this one so far.
> 
> I notice its gone all quiet on here now its started going down, even the posts have followed the same pattern as the last rise & pullback. On the way up theres 5-10 posts a day saying "next stop $1-$1.30" etc... pause at the top & they change to "due for a slight pullback before carrying on up on its merry way" then it keeps going down & it all goes quiet.
> 
> My prediction is that it still could get hammered down a bit yet, like i said in my last post tho thats just my opinion & i often get it wrong & it may turn out that now is the perfect time to buy before it shoots up!




I was pointed out as a down-ramper when I said I thought it was overcooked and was overpriced for current production when it was at ~85c. I sold then and will re-enter at some stage. 

I guess my down ramping on ASF manipulated the entire market for my advantage haha.


----------



## UMike (9 July 2009)

Well..... Thanks for that.

I got back in at the open yesterday.

This share really has held up well considering the price of Crude/Brent oil has dropped by so much.


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## JTLP (9 July 2009)

Wouldn't say anybody was downramping when it hit high 80's. Of course people wanted the trend to continue so they willed it upwards...but having it come down was a part and parcel of oil dropping, dow dropping and CVN overshooting. It's come down to roughly fair game atm...but trading is still choppy and still seems to be falling on a lot smaller volume.

News is due sometime next week...perhaps a spike on fri/mon in anticipation?

And where is Ted and our warchest for acquistions???


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## baboon (15 July 2009)

Just looking at the two year weekly charts; the 10EMA is flatening, but the 30EMA is still rising, price is above the 30 but just below the 10. My thoughts are that this is the bottom if this week closes above the 10EMA which is around 69-70cents.

Looking at volume on the weekly, the week starting 24th may has 40 million volume ranging from 61c-75c. I think there hasn't been that much weekly volume in that price range since, so suggests lots of support in this range. There is also that huge 43million volume on the week starting 10th may which has a range of 53.5c - 68cents. In my opinion if it gets to the 50s then it would be an awesome buying op. At the moment I dont think we'll get there...

On the 2 year weekly it looks like we might be forming the handle in a big cup and handle pattern starting nov 08. Things might be looking up in a big way if this forms.

Good luck everyone!


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## Ghetto23 (23 July 2009)

Starting to look like a flag down. I like this stock, , but not looking good to me on the short term?


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## Out Too Soon (27 July 2009)

There's little wrong with this stock apart from being slightly over bought recently, (guilty  ), there's a lot positive about this stock & considering the general uptrend of the market & POO I can't see the sp dropping any further, fairly static for the last week, must be ready to increase again (IMO).
 Of cause I'm not biased, I got carried away with the herd recenlty when my favourite stock started to stampede without me  . Still holding at a slight paper loss.
  Nice to see someone (Garpal) trying to predict an Elliott wave from the 2nd wave instead of the 5th, hows that theory/wave going? is it still following or dont know yet? I like Elliott wave theory, just not enough to learn & apply myself.


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## Miner (28 July 2009)

i was hoping and did not sell at 75 cents. It held up at 69 cents around for few days and seeing market was generally high sold out with a relief. One of the few in my portfolio with green signs now went out 

If I deepens further with a smile I will enter. If rises up (which is more probable as SP rises when I sell and reverse ) I know the history repeats itself.

Do not hold CVN any more


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## Out Too Soon (5 August 2009)

It seems we r following a contrarian stock, I'm still holding & unless there's been some non-disclosure then I still don't see why it isn't going up with the market & POO. I have been investing long enough now to know if I panic & sell at a loss now the sp will boom sooo- wait for reason to prevail or bad news to come out


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## eddyeagle (5 August 2009)

Anyone got any thoughts as to why CVN is languishing while the rest of the market and POO is up? Did it just too hard too fast???


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## Real1ty (5 August 2009)

CVN was added to the XJO, thus many fund managers HAD to hold it.

That imo is why it appreciated so rapidly.

Now it is held, the buying pressure has eased and it has consolidated.

That's my take on it.


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## des (5 August 2009)

leaving hopeful optimism aside, i reckon there could certainly be more downside in the short term. on the bright side, the daily chart _seems_ to be tracing a bullish falling wedge pattern that was confirmed a few days ago with another reversal at 69. the way i see it, a break above the return line would see a minimal target of $1.05 whilst a downside break would see a return to 45. this is less likely as cvn has respected the 30wma several times and this is tracing a path which would consolidate the support line on the wedge.

i am a former holder but have none currently. i wouldnt make a decision on this one until it does one or the other myself. comments welcome.


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## JTLP (5 August 2009)

Woweeee!!!

Sorry kıds...I am overseas atm and have not had any tıme to check on thıs bad boy. Seems lıke CVN are makıng quıte a few addıtıons to theır warchest through new permıts etc...plus from my quıck scannıng they wıll not be the Operator's of the permıts (correct ıf wrong please)

CVN may also be droppıng because we are waıtıng on news from other wells no? There has been some delay sınce last tıme.


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## glendem2 (5 August 2009)

CVN hsve been on a SELL signal since the beginning of July when the share price broke through support at 77c. I am still waiting for the shares to find a floor BEFORE BUYING. 60c is the next support and if that gives way look for support in the 53-55c region. After that it is all the way back to 44c. CVN seems to like round numbers like 44c, 55c, 66c, 77c and 88c.

A weekly close above 73c will change the direction of the stock. In the meantime, I am waiting for the downturn to play out for another 4-5 weeks and look to BUY at 55c around the end of August/ early part of September


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## johannlo (5 August 2009)

The recent weakness is due to declining production and revenues in recent report.

We need some good news and / or an improvement in the figures.


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## Garpal Gumnut (5 August 2009)

johannlo said:


> The recent weakness is due to declining production and revenues in recent report.
> 
> We need some good news and / or an improvement in the figures.




By the time the good news comes or figures improve the strong investors will have bought up and you will miss out.

Watch for an increase in volume with a shakeout, then a rise, to profit from this little ripper.

gg


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## johnnyg (5 August 2009)

johnnyg said:


> Wave 2's or B's _normally_ retrace between 50-61.8% of the prior advance. In strong trends the retrace can be shallower.
> 
> If you look at the time taken to complete your wave 1, wave 2 is quite short in comparison, symmetry always adds confidence to a count.
> 
> ...




Slowly edging closer to my target ~ 0.56 - 0.48 Little weakness still to come in my view. Pattern is showing good symmetry.


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## johannlo (5 August 2009)

Agreed Carpal which is why I only reduced, not sold all of my position   Been trying to reduce my position anyway without getting scared out of all the specs I have faith in, sooner or later there must be some kinda correction to the recent run. 

Waiting for more obvious signals before I re-enter. Too green to understand this elliot wave stuff  but if say I see a morning star or everything golden crosses then I'm in again


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## Miner (5 August 2009)

eddyeagle said:


> Anyone got any thoughts as to why CVN is languishing while the rest of the market and POO is up? Did it just too hard too fast???




For CVN holders and aspirants this scrip  looks like searching for more and more bottom whild should find more oil to keep investors happy. 

Unfortunately Bell Potter has repeated its Sell signal (DYOR as BPS  said SELL FMG and actually FMG went up and up since then) 

On 4th August BPS said  SELL repeating its recommendation to SELL made  in June  

Both reports are attached

Disclaimer : DNH


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## sukebe (6 August 2009)

Patersons has revised their recommendation on CVN today to BUY with a target of 0.76.  The following words have been added for no purpose other than to meet the minimum character requirement


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## Garpal Gumnut (6 August 2009)

Miner said:


> For CVN holders and aspirants this scrip  looks like searching for more and more bottom whild should find more oil to keep investors happy.
> 
> Unfortunately Bell Potter has repeated its Sell signal (DYOR as BPS  said SELL FMG and actually FMG went up and up since then)
> 
> ...






sukebe said:


> Patersons has revised their recommendation on CVN today to BUY with a target of 0.76.  The following words have been added for no purpose other than to meet the minimum character requirement




May I please ask you guys NOT to buy or sell CVN, or any stock for that matter on a brokers' recommendation.

In the 80's I was fortunate to sit in on a morning meeting at one of Rene Rivkin's broking meetings.

The decisions to make a buy or sell recommendation were laughable.

They still are.

Look at the success rate of the above brokers over the last 18 months.

gg


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## kenny (6 August 2009)

Garpal Gumnut said:


> In the 80's I was fortunate to sit in on a morning meeting at one of Rene Rivkin's broking meetings.
> 
> gg




I'm sure you could tell a few stories over a beer that would turn us off brokers for life. Sadly, I suspect the forum might cop some flak if we asked for some to be told here.

Cheers,

Kenny


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## panikhide (7 August 2009)

Garpal Gumnut said:


> May I please ask you guys NOT to buy or sell CVN, or any stock for that matter on a brokers' recommendation.
> 
> In the 80's I was fortunate to sit in on a morning meeting at one of Rene Rivkin's broking meetings.
> 
> ...




gg, thanks for that good advice. You may be right, but brokers' recommendations are an important consideration, because they can influence a stock's price as there are sheep (I mean intelligent investors) out there who follow them.


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## johannlo (7 August 2009)

Not looking pretty on the chart from my newbie eyes

I was hoping yesterday's doji star would indicate a reversal is on the cards but today went the opposite direction. All other indicators seem to be poor - strong negative DMI confirmed w/ ADx above 30, the SMA and MACD crosses all in the wrong direction. 

Descending channel looks to continue unless something happens. doh


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## Garpal Gumnut (7 August 2009)

johannlo said:


> Not looking pretty on the chart from my newbie eyes
> 
> I was hoping yesterday's doji star would indicate a reversal is on the cards but today went the opposite direction. All other indicators seem to be poor - strong negative DMI confirmed w/ ADx above 30, the SMA and MACD crosses all in the wrong direction.
> 
> Descending channel looks to continue unless something happens. doh




Mate you always need to include volume in your assessment.

I haven't looked at CVN tonight, but all I can see is it hugging previous support at 60c.

The indicators are confusing.

gg


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## Miner (7 August 2009)

It has been interesting to see the postings on CVN. Some provided mixed signal some provided hope.
GG's comments on broker advise was excellent. But I think you meant broker's advise made in public. If they do not advise correctly then all sophisticated investors will be penniless and start brokering themselves.

On serious ground the brokers IMO try to manipulate market with their public opinions so that the herd of sheep gets sucked into to make their direct clients getting prosperous. 

Share market is normally robbing Peter to pay Paul. 

Sorry nothing on CVN because this share is going no where now


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## magnale (9 August 2009)

Why  such  pessimism? This is a splendid company and we should be in it for the long haul .. well that is my opinion and I've been in it for a long time


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## Garpal Gumnut (14 August 2009)

johannlo said:


> Not looking pretty on the chart from my newbie eyes
> 
> I was hoping yesterday's doji star would indicate a reversal is on the cards but today went the opposite direction. All other indicators seem to be poor - strong negative DMI confirmed w/ ADx above 30, the SMA and MACD crosses all in the wrong direction.
> 
> Descending channel looks to continue unless something happens. doh






Garpal Gumnut said:


> Mate you always need to include volume in your assessment.
> 
> I haven't looked at CVN tonight, but all I can see is it hugging previous support at 60c.
> 
> ...






Miner said:


> It has been interesting to see the postings on CVN. Some provided mixed signal some provided hope.
> GG's comments on broker advise was excellent. But I think you meant broker's advise made in public. If they do not advise correctly then all sophisticated investors will be penniless and start brokering themselves.
> 
> On serious ground the brokers IMO try to manipulate market with their public opinions so that the herd of sheep gets sucked into to make their direct clients getting prosperous.
> ...






magnale said:


> Why  such  pessimism? This is a splendid company and we should be in it for the long haul .. well that is my opinion and I've been in it for a long time




All quotes are reasonable, though as I've said above.

Stick with this little nugget.

If it drops below 60c. Then run.

A chart

gg


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## ktrianta (19 August 2009)

Garpal Gumnut said:


> All quotes are reasonable, though as I've said above.
> 
> Stick with this little nugget.
> 
> ...




It dropped below yesterday, but back above today, so is it time to run according to the charts? I cannot tell from the charts myself but it is looking shaky.


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## growing (19 August 2009)

ktrianta said:


> It dropped below yesterday, but back above today, so is it time to run according to the charts? I cannot tell from the charts myself but it is looking shaky.





They released promising news on the new 50/50 venture with SUR, that may be providing upward pressure .. If this Joint Venture shows results, this stock would be great in the long term.


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## eddyeagle (19 August 2009)

Interesting chart this one. Cup and handle anyone?

The movements in the last few months actually look similar to what it did at the start of 2008 ie. a sharp fall, followed by a slower fall. In 2008, it then bounced about 75% in the space of a couple of months, so it will be interesting to see where it goes from here... Hopefully not under 60cents!


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## Rob 17 (20 August 2009)

NSE-J1 & J2 development wells were drilled by june 29. Both wells experienced significant fluid losses while drilling through target zones. Testing was to commence shortly. Its been over 6 weeks since this annoucement and no results yet.

I got a feeling there going to be really good or really bad. 

DYOR


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## johnnyg (21 August 2009)

Garpal Gumnut said:


> If it drops below 60c. Then run.
> 
> gg




You bolted yet CG? I think CVN is setting up for a great buying opportunity. Ill be watching closely for signs of strength coming in.


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## Garpal Gumnut (21 August 2009)

johnnyg said:


> You bolted yet CG? I think CVN is setting up for a great buying opportunity. Ill be watching closely for signs of strength coming in.




Gone mate.

I'll be back in if it regains an upward trend though.

I am a bit concerned when oilers throw out reports as a share price tanks.

gg


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## baboon (23 August 2009)

des said:


> leaving hopeful optimism aside, i reckon there could certainly be more downside in the short term. on the bright side, the daily chart _seems_ to be tracing a bullish falling wedge pattern that was confirmed a few days ago with another reversal at 69. the way i see it, a break above the return line would see a minimal target of $1.05 whilst a downside break would see a return to 45. this is less likely as cvn has respected the 30wma several times and this is tracing a path which would consolidate the support line on the wedge.
> 
> i am a former holder but have none currently. i wouldnt make a decision on this one until it does one or the other myself. comments welcome.




Might be a bit optimistic but does it look like this is a bullish falling wedge pattern forming?  As time goes by the volume looks to be dropping as well.   For upward movement it would need to break the upper trend line with significant volume.


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## glendem2 (27 August 2009)

glendem2 said:


> CVN hsve been on a SELL signal since the beginning of July when the share price broke through support at 77c. I am still waiting for the shares to find a floor BEFORE BUYING. 60c is the next support and if that gives way look for support in the 53-55c region. After that it is all the way back to 44c. CVN seems to like round numbers like 44c, 55c, 66c, 77c and 88c.
> 
> A weekly close above 73c will change the direction of the stock. In the meantime, I am waiting for the downturn to play out for another 4-5 weeks and look to BUY at 55c around the end of August/ early part of September




Looks like 55c may be on the cards in the next few days. A break below 52c and the shares will quickly fall back to the 40-44c area. I'm still going to wait for the shares to find a support level it can hold for at least 3 weeks before I place a BUY order. Traders may wish to place a Buy @ 53c for a bounce back up to 58c, with a stop loss @ 52c


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## Garpal Gumnut (27 August 2009)

glendem2 said:


> Looks like 55c may be on the cards in the next few days. A break below 52c and the shares will quickly fall back to the 40-44c area. I'm still going to wait for the shares to find a support level it can hold for at least 3 weeks before I place a BUY order. Traders may wish to place a Buy @ 53c for a bounce back up to 58c, with a stop loss @ 52c




I'd look at buying in again when it hits 37.5. Its in a definite downtrend at present with lower lows and lower highs.

gg


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## magnale (28 August 2009)

Are you all spec buyers and sellers?  Are you not interested in the quality of a company, that is a well run debt free, and one that should bring us real rewards if only we are prepared to wait ? I  remember when Oil Search went through the same stage as CVN is at,  and it was  trashed in much the same way. I guess it does depend on whether we are prepared to wait .


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## Garpal Gumnut (28 August 2009)

magnale said:


> Are you all spec buyers and sellers?  Are you not interested in the quality of a company, that is a well run debt free, and one that should bring us real rewards if only we are prepared to wait ? I  remember when Oil Search went through the same stage as CVN is at,  and it was  trashed in much the same way. I guess it does depend on whether we are prepared to wait .




Mate its a stock not a religion, ok.

Rather like a maid met on a footy trip overseas.

Who are "we" ?

Stocks are to be held until they outlive usefulness to the holder.

See Garpal Gumnut's dictionary of stocks and shares.

gg


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## magnale (28 August 2009)

Thanks GG ....just expressing a view: yep I certainly am not interested whilst overseas, bedding maidens:


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## skc (28 August 2009)

This look like a good stock for the trader with patience. In this case, the patience required is to wait on the side line until the stock turns up again. 



Garpal Gumnut said:


> Mate its a stock not a religion, ok.
> 
> Rather like *a maid met on a footy trip* overseas.
> 
> ...




What kind of footy trip was that?


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## UMike (28 August 2009)

skc said:


> This look like a good stock for the trader with patience. In this case, the patience required is to wait on the side line until the stock turns up again.
> 
> 
> 
> What kind of footy trip was that?



A good one by the sounds of it.

I am finding apart from banks and property a lot of the stocks are just waiting for a more decisive outlook.


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## JTLP (29 August 2009)

POE getting hammered as I type.

I must admit i'm pretty hammered but it doesn't bode well for CVN on monday's exchange. 

The production decline is also going to be a factor...as well as this stronger aussie dollar is really going to eat in to the profit line (already outlined on POE marketwire ann).

18% down...mmm maybe another insto will jump on board...

Kiss hug from JTLP who is in VIENNNNNAAA!!!


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## Garpal Gumnut (29 August 2009)

JTLP said:


> POE getting hammered as I type.
> 
> I must admit i'm pretty hammered but it doesn't bode well for CVN on monday's exchange.
> 
> ...




Its buggerising around price wise .

I'll wait for .30 and get back in again.

Technically it looks as if it will tank.

gg


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## sall123 (31 August 2009)

cvn is on a downturn in my opinion. I have seen some news about it and i dont recon with will power through like other stocks.


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## eddyeagle (1 September 2009)

The down-trend continues. At some point there's going to be a great buying opportunity but just wondering how low it can go? 40c? Glad i took some profits as it was heading up!


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## grace (1 September 2009)

I just hate when GG announces on here that he is out of CVN, it normally means I am going to lose a heap of money on paper.


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## doogie_goes_off (1 September 2009)

I can't see CVN going below 38c but that's on a chart basis. The last announcment read something like, still busy, some technical issues, be patient. I reckon we may see 60+ cents once the wells in development make production figures, that's all the market seems to understand. Tanking price = buying opportunity?? GG if you wait for 0.3 and get some at that price I will be very impressed.


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## johnnyg (2 September 2009)

Some thought. 

Today was a reasonable bar, gaped down however closed just off the high on a big increase in volume. The bar was reasonably tight ranging in nature which concerns me a little. Definitely think there is still some selling taking place keeping a cap on higher prices. I'm tempted to try and pick the bottom here and get a nice tight entry, however will probably wait a day or 2 to see what transpires.

I wouldn't be too keen to see prices fall much further, I'd like to see a low volume push down to the 0.47-0.48 area with the bar closing high.


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## Garpal Gumnut (3 September 2009)

If CVN falls below the 61.8% retracement, then technically CVN is going down down down.

If it holds and takes off up then its a buy.

Simple

gg


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## jonojpsg (4 September 2009)

Personally from looking at their last update, I would be selling (if I held).  Decrease in production and issues with the latest exploration/development wells as well as declines in rates from existing wells makes for downward pressure on the SP IMO.  

Note that I have not looked in detail at the data though - more a gut feeling based on the up front production figures and issues raised in the update.

Hope this doesn't qualify as a downramp, I'm certainly not looking to buy in!


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## Garpal Gumnut (6 September 2009)

There seems to be some buying support for CVN at 50c.

I may be tempted in as its the 61.8% fibonnaci retracement from low to high.

My gut feeling is it will drop to 42c , but gut feelings are not to be trusted.

gg


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## johnnyg (6 September 2009)

I'm still only Paper trading my own system atm, but I have 'brought' 1/2 position @ 0.53 on Friday. Will buy the other 1/2 if prices get up and through 0.60. Don't like trying to pick bottoms, but feel the potential R:R is too great to ignore.


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## Garpal Gumnut (6 September 2009)

I had another look at my chart posted today and its behaving like it did at the 38.2% retracement.

Perhaps it will fall precipitously.

gg


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## Riddick (6 September 2009)

Trendline looks bad for CVN. 40 is definitely not out of the question. The PE is way high too.
I did buy this stock for 30 cents in Marsh this year and sold out at 83 cents, so I like this company. I just don't like it at the moment. If it hits 40 I'm back in.


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## fureien (7 September 2009)

how do u use Fibonacci for stocks? i often hear people mention it. until now i always thoguht it was just a nice number pattern/sequence. not something u can actually use


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## glendem2 (7 September 2009)

CVN is still on SELL signal for the Daily and Weekly timeframes. Weekly gap fill at 56-57c is the upside target I am watching to possibly short again. 

DAILY. 200ema (54c) is providing resistance. MACD still on SELL. STOC is rising with 1 more day upside possible, before a possible turn down. RSI looks like it wants to head south again. Upside 54c, Down target 42c

WEEKLY 200ema (34.3c) has provided long term support and it still rising 0.1c per week. MACD is on SELL , with STOC (23) and RSI (44). Upside 57c, Down Target 33c.

A break above 60c and hold for 3 weeks is required to turn the wekly SELL signal


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## Miner (8 September 2009)

glendem2 said:


> CVN is still on SELL signal for the Daily and Weekly timeframes. Weekly gap fill at 56-57c is the upside target I am watching to possibly short again.
> 
> DAILY. 200ema (54c) is providing resistance. MACD still on SELL. STOC is rising with 1 more day upside possible, before a possible turn down. RSI looks like it wants to head south again. Upside 54c, Down target 42c
> 
> ...




Bell Potter Securities recently changed its SELL to BUY at 50 cents for CVN.
I however do read BPS notes but take utmost caution in action.
DNH


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## HC Victim (8 September 2009)

Am a holder of CVN, but due to work commitments I get rare chances to study it in depth, so I appreciate the work other posters do to post their analysis. Tonight i got the opportunity to  peruse todays trading, and noticed a bot buying 223 units throughout the day, so if possible, could traders keep a bit of an eye on to see if it is buying or selling?, cheers and much appreciation...


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## growing (9 September 2009)

I have NO IDEA what is going on with this company, it's trading all over the place. This share seems to be heavily traded by short term traders, which plays significantly with the price..

As for predicting if this one will go up or down on a montly basis ? Your guess is as good as mine


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## Out Too Soon (10 September 2009)

Bit sad carrying this stock at present but there is over a million buy @ .485 today & a lot more buying pressure than selling, soooo here's hoping for the holders like myself & for those on the sidelines, be ready if your fingers aren't already over the buy button. I'm tempted but I already have a lot in CVN. 

PS watch the oil price too, it's ready to rise, I think


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## growing (14 September 2009)

Out Too Soon said:


> Bit sad carrying this stock at present but there is over a million buy @ .485 today & a lot more buying pressure than selling, soooo here's hoping for the holders like myself & for those on the sidelines, be ready if your fingers aren't already over the buy button. I'm tempted but I already have a lot in CVN.
> 
> PS watch the oil price too, it's ready to rise, I think




I used to take notice of the buys and sells but JTLP pointed out people often manipulate this, throwing in buys or sells and pulling them in the last minute to attempt to create a false impression of buy/sell pressure depending on which way you want the stock to go ... Personally, I don't know how many people actually go through that exercise on a daily basis however I noticed ESG seems to ALWAYS have way more sells than buys yet the price often goes up? This seems to back up JTLP's argument so the bottom line seems to always be .. WHO KNOWS ??


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## growing (16 September 2009)

I don't think there is any disputing the huge buying pressure on CVN today on the back of a Horizontal Drilling which lead to major confirmed new commercial oil reserves...

The latest broker report was of the opinion it had been oversold and now look - it's off and running 

Bought some more today myself !!


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## eddyeagle (16 September 2009)

Massive volume and a 15% jump today - cant complain about that! 

49c/50c seemed to hold nicely the last few weeks. 

Kicking myself for not having the balls to top up at 50c, but was concerned it would go through.


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## growing (16 September 2009)

eddyeagle said:


> Massive volume and a 15% jump today - cant complain about that!
> 
> 49c/50c seemed to hold nicely the last few weeks.
> 
> Kicking myself for not having the balls to top up at 50c, but was concerned it would go through.




The last time there was this much buying pressure, the stock pushed 96cents for a moment then it sank as reports of reducing production were announced.

It's not too late to buy back in at this level and still make some serious money


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## JTLP (17 September 2009)

eddyeagle said:


> Massive volume and a 15% jump today - cant complain about that!
> 
> 49c/50c seemed to hold nicely the last few weeks.
> 
> Kicking myself for not having the balls to top up at 50c, but was concerned it would go through.




Eddy...

No need to kick yourself for not topping up. Were you to know of this imminent announcment? Volume was up in the preceding days but imagine had the news been bad?

Will be intriguing to see how much CVN pulls back tomorrow. A fantastic result but there is bound to be profit takers...just out of curiousity...is that the biggest day for volume CVN has had? 20 million sure is big.

Also wondering if big Ken has shed even more...

xoxo


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## eddyeagle (17 September 2009)

Blink and you miss it!

A 24% gain in two days!

Another big day of volume today with 17 mil traded. 

Great too that it's cleared 60c - thought there may have been some resistance around that area?


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## Garpal Gumnut (17 September 2009)

I'm back in this little beauty, never lost on a buy/sell, it has amazing legs. Somebody knows something they are not telling everybody atm. The smart money is piling in. 

gg


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## johnnyg (17 September 2009)

johnnyg said:


> I have 'brought' 1/2 position @ 0.53 on Friday. Will buy the other 1/2 if prices get up and through 0.60. Don't like trying to pick bottoms, but feel the potential R:R is too great to ignore.




The last 2 days action is the main reason I put 1/2 in @ 0.53, and now today another 1/2 @ 0.60. Stop is now @ Break even for the 1st lot.


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## grace (17 September 2009)

Garpal Gumnut said:


> I'm back in this little beauty, never lost on a buy/sell, it has amazing legs. Somebody knows something they are not telling everybody atm. The smart money is piling in.
> 
> gg




Phew, glad to see you back on board gg!  When it bounces, it bounces fast.  I've never been game to trade this one (lack of time, and lack of courage I think....always worried I'll be out when they strike some more gold....you know, the black stuff).


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## Dukey (17 September 2009)

So much for CVN tanking hey!!  A little good news and she's away again as if the last sp dip never happened.


----------



## glendem2 (18 September 2009)

glendem2 said:


> CVN is still on SELL signal for the Daily and Weekly timeframes. Weekly gap fill at 56-57c is the upside target I am watching to possibly short again.
> 
> DAILY. 200ema (54c) is providing resistance. MACD still on SELL. STOC is rising with 1 more day upside possible, before a possible turn down. RSI looks like it wants to head south again. Upside 54c, Down target 42c
> 
> ...




Gap filled at 56-57c. 15c rise from low 47.5c (02SEP) to 62.5c (17SEP). STOC (92) indicating short term over bought price. A 1-4 day pull back to 54-56c and close above 60c over next 2 weeks will trigger a BUY. 

DAILY 200ema (53.8c). MACD signalling potential BUY signal

WEEKLY 200ema (34.6c). MACD still on SELL, but STOC(42) and RSI(52) rising indicating BUY pressure

Current trade set up :

BUY 54-56c STOP 52c TARGET 88c


----------



## glendem2 (2 October 2009)

CVN has not triggered a Long term BUY signal. Price dropped to 51c (02OCT).

DAILY
58c (50ema) has only been broken once over the last 3 months on 17SEP
48c (200ema) has been providing support.


WEEKLY
52c (50ema) is acting as support. Watching for a break below this month. If 52c does not hold, then I will wait for support at 200ema.

35c (200ema) is a Long term BUY price and been strong support for the last 3 years.


----------



## Garpal Gumnut (5 October 2009)

grace said:


> Phew, glad to see you back on board gg!  When it bounces, it bounces fast.  I've never been game to trade this one (lack of time, and lack of courage I think....always worried I'll be out when they strike some more gold....you know, the black stuff).




grace, mate, I feel CVN may be ready for a run up.

Its showing a flag formation over the last week or so.

I'll be buying some tomorrow.

gg


----------



## grace (5 October 2009)

Garpal Gumnut said:


> grace, mate, I feel CVN may be ready for a run up.
> 
> Its showing a flag formation over the last week or so.
> 
> ...




Thanks for your TA gg.  Hope you get the call right.  I still hold.  Waiting with more cash though if we do get that October wobble.


----------



## Miner (5 October 2009)

Garpal Gumnut said:


> grace, mate, I feel CVN may be ready for a run up.
> 
> Its showing a flag formation over the last week or so.
> 
> ...




Good luck GG.

Interesting : contrary to your decision one  non executive director Ken Judge sold 1 million shares (50% of total trade of the day).
Probably he is having cash to acquire more shares


----------



## Garpal Gumnut (5 October 2009)

Miner said:


> Good luck GG.
> 
> Interesting : contrary to your decision one  non executive director Ken Judge sold 1 million shares (50% of total trade of the day).
> Probably he is having cash to acquire more shares




1m x 0.135 = $135,000.

Or to buy a second hand Arnage, or a new VW.

But thanks for the info.

It makes it difficult to make decisions when there is so much info out there. Instos buying, Judgebaby buying a Vdub.

I prefer fast and frugal myself.



gg


----------



## Garpal Gumnut (7 October 2009)

grace said:


> Thanks for your TA gg.  Hope you get the call right.  I still hold.  Waiting with more cash though if we do get that October wobble.




It seems to have some legs again. .565 closed today. Its always nice when TA gives a win, it will be interesting to see how far it goes before it consolidates again. Holding CVN never did anyone any harm that I know of. 

gg


----------



## Out Too Soon (15 October 2009)

Garpal Gumnut said:


> It seems to have some legs again. .565 closed today. Its always nice when TA gives a win, it will be interesting to see how far it goes before it consolidates again. Holding CVN never did anyone any harm that I know of.
> 
> gg




Wish I was holding from .50 instead of .82  yes it's moving again, I just got over confident before  Still confident with this stock but I try not to be long term negative holder in anything= yet another lesson learnt


----------



## skc (15 October 2009)

The up move last month was a lot more impulsive. But this leg seems to have slightly less strength behind it. Next minor resistance at $.625, followed by a larger one at $0.8. 



Garpal Gumnut said:


> Holding CVN never did anyone any harm that I know of.
> 
> gg




I was looking at my CVN statement and got a paper cut from it..


----------



## Garpal Gumnut (18 October 2009)

My only worry is Thailand, they revere a king who must have never seen reality and is probably just an ordinary Joe Blow (excuses Joe).

The other concern is that the Thais sell their women and children into prostitution, a sure sign of a sick society.

The chart looks good though.

I worked for a while for a guy called Sihanouk, who was variously king, prince. pm etc of Cambodia in early 1975 and he was crooked as ****.

So when the ole King of Thailand hits the tiles god knows what will happen.

Anyway they are giving him antibiotics and reverence. And cvn's future is tied to Thailand's future.

I'll be selling at the highs

gg

.


----------



## Out Too Soon (19 October 2009)

Garpal Gumnut said:


> My only worry is Thailand, they revere a king who must have never seen reality and is probably just an ordinary Joe Blow (excuses Joe).
> 
> The other concern is that the Thais sell their women and children into prostitution, a sure sign of a sick society.
> 
> ...




Garpal if you worked for Sihanouk & therefore I suspect spent time in the region I'd expect you would have more knowledge of Thailand. 
Anyway, my experience of Cambodia was that anyone connected with or working for the govt (2005) are as corrupt & dirty as you can get right down to the lowliest public servant.
 Thailand has a lot of corruption in the public service/govt but not to the same extent. Also the King is a saint, not just in perception but in action, a very clever saint who has saved Thailand from mirroring Burma by his very careful behind the scenes diplomacy many times.  
 I am biased having lived in Thailand & married one but I have high hopes for the countries future & believe that King Bumiphols son will have no choice but to follow his fathers example. It is a Constitutional Monarchy with little power held by the King, his real power comes from the awe & love of his people, they will not feel the same way about his son until he proves he is at least half the diplomat his father is.
 A few nasty animals sell there daughters into prostitution, others are kidnapped by trusted relatives & others by strangers, still others make a lifestyle choice leaving poverty behind. The problem is much worse in Cambodia where poverty is worse & the govt couldn't care less.


----------



## UMike (19 October 2009)

Garpal Gumnut said:


> My only worry is Thailand, they revere a king who must have never seen reality and is probably just an ordinary Joe Blow (excuses Joe).
> 
> The other concern is that the Thais sell their women and children into prostitution, a sure sign of a sick society.
> 
> ...



Must say I find this post rather sad. Coming from a redneck QLDer that has buried his AKK in his back yard 12 years ago in case the reds invade. Probably goes over there to take advantage and exploit the "sickness".
If you dish it out can you take it.
Thais love their King and it will be interesting to watch the Country move on from his passing, whenever that happens. And it may be sooner than later. They have no heir apparent that is anywhere near as revered. The politics is also ruled by the Bangkok elite so the country could be divided more than ever.

However I am sure that, as usual, the country will operate business as usual with minimal actual disruption to production.


disc - Small holder of CVN over medium term trades
disc disc - Huge knowledge and respect for Thailand and it's people.


----------



## Out Too Soon (19 October 2009)

UMike said:


> ****
> However I am sure that, as usual, the country will operate business as usual with minimal actual disruption to production.




The amazing thing about Thailand is the army can be shooting democracy protesters burning buildings & buses in Bangkok & the rest of the country is calm as with very much business as usual. I'm thinking in particular of 1990/91, freinds were in Bangkok & simply stayed in doors for a few hours over a few days  & went out during the quieter periods to photograph the bloody protesters & gun toting army lines. I was in sth Thailand watching it on TV with the locals.
 Once again the King stepped in after a few days of looming Anarchy, brought the opposing sides (evil General Suchinda & good guy Bangkok Mayor) together & made them come to an imperfect but workable agreement.  Other countries tear themselves apart while Thailand continues to democratise & grow.


----------



## UMike (19 October 2009)

Out Too Soon said:


> The amazing thing about Thailand is the army can be shooting democracy protesters burning buildings & buses in Bangkok & the rest of the country is calm as with very much business as usual. I'm thinking in particular of 1990/91, freinds were in Bangkok & simply stayed in doors for a few hours over a few days  & went out during the quieter periods to photograph the bloody protesters & gun toting army lines. I was in sth Thailand watching it on TV with the locals.
> Once again the King stepped in after a few days of looming Anarchy, brought the opposing sides (evil General Suchinda & good guy Bangkok Mayor) together & made them come to an imperfect but workable agreement.  Other countries tear themselves apart while Thailand continues to democratise & grow.



Hi OTS.
 I could debate the "continues to democratise" and the effect of the (very unpopular) Princes Son will have after the Kings death. (Hopefully the youngest daughter will find a way to become Queen.)
One thing we share in common is a realistic view of Thailand not corrupted by 3rd hand innuendo and generalisations. 

I feel that for companies like CVN and KCN, politically,  business will be pretty stable no matter what will happen.


----------



## Out Too Soon (20 October 2009)

UMike said:


> Hi OTS.
> I could debate the "continues to democratise" and the effect of the (very unpopular) Princes Son will have after the Kings death. (Hopefully the youngest daughter will find a way to become Queen.)
> One thing we share in common is a realistic view of Thailand not corrupted by 3rd hand innuendo and generalisations.
> 
> I feel that for companies like CVN and KCN, politically,  business will be pretty stable no matter what will happen.




Too true on every point UMike  I just optimistically glossed over the details for the benefit of CVN followers, our conversation had drifted :topic  



Hovering around .58 today, hope it breachs .62 soon while the rest of the market is bouyant.


----------



## glendem2 (29 October 2009)

glendem2 said:


> CVN has not triggered a Long term BUY signal. Price dropped to 51c (02OCT).
> 
> DAILY
> 58c (50ema) has only been broken once over the last 3 months on 17SEP
> ...




SP fell below 51c (29Oct). Retest of low 47.5c (02Sep) looks possible in the next few days. If the price breaks below 47.5c, then I would wait to see the SP find it's next level (possibly down to 36c). CVN is over sold on the Daily Stoc (7) and RSI (36) heading south. A bounce in the share price is due next week to fill the gap at 52-53c

Watch for major price moves on the last day of the month - Friday 30th October. On 30th July the shares fell 5c. On 30th August the shares fell 6c. On 30th September the share fell 1.5c.  A test of support around 45c should bring out the BUYERS.


----------



## growing (2 December 2009)

Well I'm no longer the "stock" guru I thought I was ... the market has a way of completely destroying any EGO you have !! 

Look at this flat stock price.. Anyone would think the company was running at a loss !! It's only successfully pulling out one of the most desired and limited energy source on the planet - no problems at all with many other projects in the pipeline...


----------



## condog (3 December 2009)

growing said:


> Well I'm no longer the "stock" guru I thought I was ... the market has a way of completely destroying any EGO you have !!
> 
> Look at this flat stock price.. Anyone would think the company was running at a loss !! It's only successfully pulling out one of the most desired and limited energy source on the planet - no problems at all with many other projects in the pipeline...




Then why did you get out of it...Its a great company , rapidly growing, simply waiting for its next big result to be released....

Patience my friend....


----------



## Out Too Soon (3 December 2009)

condog said:


> Then why did you get out of it...Its a great company , rapidly growing, simply waiting for its next big result to be released....
> 
> Patience my friend....




It depends what side of the fence your on doesn't it. I'm a long term holder by mistake & essentially have to wait until the inevitable upswing.  Some mobs are saying BUY some are saying SELL. I know it'll come good soon but are there better (surer) short term stocks out there- probably  Very good long term investment if that's your goal though


----------



## growing (10 December 2009)

condog said:


> Then why did you get out of it...Its a great company , rapidly growing, simply waiting for its next big result to be released....
> 
> Patience my friend....





Sorry I was venting, I am still holding this one and have for a couple of years .. in fact I bought more a few months ago but it has just tested new "recent times" lows at .49 cents .. incredible ... Too bad if I get short on cash and need to sell :s

CVN should rub their profits in everyone's faces and pay a tiny dividend to shareholders - just to remind everyone they are in POSITIVE cashflow and are in good shape to continue making a profit. That will show up all those silly sellers out there  lol


----------



## JTLP (10 December 2009)

growing said:


> Sorry I was venting, I am still holding this one and have for a couple of years .. in fact I bought more a few months ago but it has just tested new "recent times" lows at .49 cents .. incredible ... Too bad if I get short on cash and need to sell :s
> 
> CVN should rub their profits in everyone's faces and pay a tiny dividend to shareholders - just to remind everyone they are in POSITIVE cashflow and are in good shape to continue making a profit. That will show up all those silly sellers out there  lol




Rather they grab some more land or distressed oiler outside of S.E Asia.

Also there is no great rush to buy CVN...bit of a steady downtrend since the early 70 cent range. Support around this 49 cent mark but if it falls through that then i'm looking at 40 cents to get some more.


----------



## mkelpie (18 December 2009)

2  ASX releases in 2 days!

Can anyone with some tech. analysis skills give their thoughts on the WA offshore announcement?


----------



## growing (24 December 2009)

mkelpie said:


> 2  ASX releases in 2 days!
> 
> Can anyone with some tech. analysis skills give their thoughts on the WA offshore announcement?




Hmmm yeah I think that would be interesting to factor into the share price value but i have noticed a steady increase in its share price over the last few days ??? The market seems to be closing in the usual yearly "Santa Clause" finish ?? Seems to happen every year - despite this though, CVN seems to be rising steadily again .. early days though.

I don't think Thailand would have had any problem approving a mining permit with their 40% tax rate - hehe 

Anyway, HAPPY HOLIDAYS from NEW YORK CITY !!


----------



## Garpal Gumnut (26 December 2009)

Somebody reckons CVN is good value.

It did look as if it would break below 48c for a while there, but it now has some legs with longer bars on higher volume and is heading up again.

If it goes through 62.5c it may be worth buying on a retest of that level.

Isn't it exciting. I do hope the King stays well and takes his Vitamin CVN.

gg


----------



## growing (31 December 2009)

Garpal Gumnut said:


> Somebody reckons CVN is good value.
> 
> It did look as if it would break below 48c for a while there, but it now has some legs with longer bars on higher volume and is heading up again.
> 
> ...




Hahahahaha, good one !! Nice to see some wit on here 

.615 cents, ALMOST THERE !!! Yes it's exciting .. The King will be very relaxed when he gets his 40% cut - that makes him the biggest shareholder??? haha!


----------



## Garpal Gumnut (2 January 2010)

growing said:


> Hahahahaha, good one !! Nice to see some wit on here
> 
> .615 cents, ALMOST THERE !!! Yes it's exciting .. The King will be very relaxed when he gets his 40% cut - that makes him the biggest shareholder??? haha!




Just be careful here, the heart tells one to go long but it may retrace and just range between 62.5 and 48.5. It needs to break through and then retrace.

No emails from HM this am, I do hope he is ok.

A chart.

gg


----------



## Ezyoptions (14 January 2010)

*CVN - Canarvon Petroleum*

Fundamentally this stock is poised for growth. Strong balance sheet and good management. Iv'e held since 2007. Anyone share my views? Would be great to hear from you.......


----------



## Motogoon (14 January 2010)

I share your views but i wish it would go up a bit faster because i want to buy a new motorbike & i need the money!


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## UMike (15 January 2010)

Motogoon said:


> I share your views but i wish it would go up a bit faster because i want to buy a new motorbike & i need the money!



Ahhh a trade of a CVN for a CBR. 

In my opinion it is under performing.

esp when it is compared to the All Ords.

If it just caught up to the All Ords then we could see it hit ~90c


----------



## skc (15 January 2010)

UMike said:


> Ahhh a trade of a CVN for a CBR.
> 
> In my opinion it is under performing.
> 
> ...




Why compare an oil company with the all ords? Wouldn't plotting against the oil price be more meaningful? And even if you compare CVN to all ords and it's lagging, it could be the all ords that fall rather than CVN that rises to match it.

On the CVN charts... what's so magical about 62c? No idea but a strong break and retest would offer a great tight entry.


----------



## Garpal Gumnut (15 January 2010)

skc said:


> Why compare an oil company with the all ords? Wouldn't plotting against the oil price be more meaningful? And even if you compare CVN to all ords and it's lagging, it could be the all ords that fall rather than CVN that rises to match it.
> 
> On the CVN charts... what's so magical about 62c? No idea but a strong break and retest would offer a great tight entry.




I'm out of CVN atm, am all in cash, sold all my stocks this week.

I reckon it will probably drift sideways with some risk to the downside for a while unless someone has a tilt at it for a t/o. If that happened it would go to about 80-90c is my opinion. Lets hope the ole king is taking his Vitamin CVN still.

gg


----------



## UMike (15 January 2010)

skc said:


> Why compare an oil company with the all ords? Wouldn't plotting against the oil price be more meaningful? And even if you compare CVN to all ords and it's lagging, it could be the all ords that fall rather than CVN that rises to match it.
> 
> On the CVN charts... what's so magical about 62c? No idea but a strong break and retest would offer a great tight entry.



Why not ... Doesn’t make much difference as the below chart will display.

Most shares follow the sentiment generated by the general market if there are not other factors immediately affecting the SP. If the AllOrds fall to the gap you can be assured so will CVN. Lines on charts or not.


----------



## jancha (15 January 2010)

Garpal Gumnut said:


> I'm out of CVN atm, am all in cash, sold all my stocks this week.
> 
> I reckon it will probably drift sideways with some risk to the downside for a while unless someone has a tilt at it for a t/o. If that happened it would go to about 80-90c is my opinion. Lets hope the ole king is taking his Vitamin CVN still.
> 
> gg




What happened to the ASX dropping down to 2200 by the end of 2009?
Wasn't that your prediction? Lol


----------



## Garpal Gumnut (15 January 2010)

jancha said:


> What happened to the ASX dropping down to 2200 by the end of 2009?
> Wasn't that your prediction? Lol




Yes, I'd agree, it would have to qualify as "muppet prediction of the year", lol 

Winning is about trading though, not prediction and my little RIO saved this little piggy's bacon.

CVN is a good stock, but I'm out for the moment.

gg


----------



## condog (15 January 2010)

Good fundamental stock...I sold last week...back in some time in future...

Only thing I dont like is lots of exposure to Thialand and its relative political instability, and very high tax on OS oil companies.... base rate 60% + lots of other petty royalities etc from memory....  

Please cross check that and DYOR


----------



## Garpal Gumnut (24 January 2010)

CVN is one of the best trading stocks on the asx. 

I take it the ole king and the politicians are well and behaving themselves respectively.

Technically CVN is not. Its been in a trading range/channel of 13c or thereabouts since Sept 09 when a lot of big buyers pushed it up.

13 is a very unlucky number, so lets double it to 26. Often a range or channel will fall to the width of the range or its double.

As misfortune would have it a 26c drop would bring us back exactly to the lows of last year at 23c.

The bottom of the present channel is a 61.8% fibonacci retracement, so all may not be lost. It may bounce off this. If it goes through, hold on to your thai elephant, they fall a long way.

Sellers in the last few days have been giving it a good whack with their bhats. And on increasing volume and longer ranges.

I am out, and have been as I said above, but may get back in at the 23c mark, as I really like this stock.

There are 2 charts included , the first showing the channel/range with projections, and the second the fibonacci retracement.

gg


----------



## RazzaDazzla (24 January 2010)

Garpal Gumnut said:


> I'm out of CVN atm, am all in cash, sold all my stocks this week.
> 
> I reckon it will probably drift sideways with some risk to the downside for a while unless someone has a tilt at it for a t/o. If that happened it would go to about 80-90c is my opinion. Lets hope the ole king is taking his Vitamin CVN still.
> 
> gg




Interesting Garpal... Probably not appropriate for this thread, but what is your reason?

Is it a EW reason? Think we have reached a wave 5 with the recent highs? Or another reason?


----------



## Garpal Gumnut (24 January 2010)

RazzaDazzla said:


> Interesting Garpal... Probably not appropriate for this thread, but what is your reason?
> 
> Is it a EW reason? Think we have reached a wave 5 with the recent highs? Or another reason?




It is an EW reason but not on CVN
Its a bit off topic but my main reason for being all in cash atm is the end of an EW 5, on the XAO, combined with a failure to breach a previous XAO support/resistance level, that level being 5000, which is a very significant number psychologically for traders/bankers/funds/russian mafia and other market makers to buy through. If it goes through 5000 and retraces and heads on again I'll be be back, including in to CVN, as it has been good to me over the years.

gg

chart of xao


----------



## Trader Paul (25 January 2010)

Hi folks,

CVN ... astrostuff has us figuring on March 2010, as being a huge month,
as several positive time cycles come into play:

      24022010 ... positive cycle ... finance-related ... ???

  05-08032010 ... a positive spotlight on CVN

      10032010 ... positive news expected, triggered by lunar aspect.

      15032010 ... minor cycle here

 22-26032010 ... a very significant and positive time cycle,
                       with more news expected 25-26032010 ... 

have a great day       

    paul



=====


----------



## RazzaDazzla (25 January 2010)

Garpal,

Once again, not the appropriate thread; but XJO seems to be clinging above 4700 by the skin of it's teeth! What would change your thinking that perhaps this is the wave 4 and there is a wave 5 to come?


----------



## Garpal Gumnut (26 January 2010)

RazzaDazzla said:


> Garpal,
> 
> Once again, not the appropriate thread; but XJO seems to be clinging above 4700 by the skin of it's teeth! What would change your thinking that perhaps this is the wave 4 and there is a wave 5 to come?




The xao looks like what I call "falling through the ice" on the charts. Only the apprentices were trading in Australia yesterday, the bosses and merchant bank guys were snorting in Toorak or Rose Bay, so there was low volume and it went nowhere.

The Yanks will be repatriating money through this week for protection against the slaughter to come in the US markets, so there will be sellers in our markets.

A funnymentalist mate told me that CVN has had some results which although OK, could have been better in some of their wells. Don't quote me on that as I don't follow funnymentals.

As for CVN's chart its still in the trading range. If it bounces off 48.5c it may go up to 63c.

I don't think it will, and I also agree with Paul's predictions , so good news may be in March.


----------



## RazzaDazzla (27 January 2010)

Garpal Gumnut said:


> The xao looks like what I call "falling through the ice" on the charts. Only the apprentices were trading in Australia yesterday, the bosses and merchant bank guys were snorting in Toorak or Rose Bay, so there was low volume and it went nowhere.




Funny!  though I'd say they were more likely in the toilet cubicles at a certain Night club on George St.

Rose bay is more of a Chardonay crowd with their snorting days a little behind them... but then again...


----------



## magnale (1 February 2010)

confused: Market has gone crazy...  yet again : what else am I to say  other then .. grumble..  and  one hundred more : grumbles


----------



## eddyeagle (5 February 2010)

CVN holding up pretty well given the massive sell off in small caps and the price of oil. I got out a while back but am keeping my eye out for a good entry point in the future...


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## Garpal Gumnut (5 February 2010)

CVN will go down with the xao , unless there is a takeover. That's the only reason I have it in this month's ASF competition. a t/o pick in a falling market may win it.

gg


----------



## tunrida (6 February 2010)

Yes GG agree (or S GG S)
bears will maul below historically strong support of 50c - no clear target below


----------



## shccbell (6 February 2010)

Well I sold out 400,000 at 78c ages ago but have a big buy in at 46.5c. I think it is a great trading stock but more important to me it has good mid term revenue so appears to be relatively low risk. The team needs to turn production declines around no matter what the reason to see this baby above a dollar. Don't take this post to mean it is without risk because that is not the case.bv


----------



## Garpal Gumnut (9 February 2010)

There seems to be consistent selling of CVN on a daily basis over the last few weeks, usually mid morning. Its definitely trending down in the short to medium term.

http://www.google.com/finance?client=ob&q=ASX:CVN

gg


----------



## mkelpie (10 February 2010)

WOW Blackrock bought a huge chunk, 34419544 shares. Watch it stat to trend back up to 60+
...............


----------



## growing (18 February 2010)

If you go to CVN's website they have listed a NEW broker report which is laughing at how cheap this stock is.

An enjoyable read if you ask me...

I would love to park a cool Million in CVN right now   I can see how the rich get richer 

CVN is expecting a reserves upgrade in March which the broker predicts will be a catalyst for the share price ... I guess we'll see hey ?

This post is opinion based - dont take anything I say as fact (you can just read the same report i just did  hehe


----------



## tunrida (19 February 2010)

growing said:


> If you go to CVN's website they have listed a NEW broker report which is laughing at how cheap this stock is.
> 
> An enjoyable read if you ask me...
> 
> ...




old stockmarket addage G: listen to a broker and you will be......if they do know something worthwhile, they certainly won't tell you and me the facts - they look after themselves and their big fish first.


----------



## JTLP (19 February 2010)

Long time holder of Cvn...thought i'd share some thoughts. 

- The reserve upgrade will be nice but the current strengths in the AUD and the not so fantastic oil price (what CVN get) won't do much for the share price. They've got oil...great...but look at production rates. In 2008 they were targeting a year end 8,000 net to CVN.

- Really need some high flow rates and positive news to flow through. They have been discovering some nice new plays but the market wants bigger and better to shore up this one. 

- I really think the SP will track sideways until some material news comes to light regarding more farm-ins and picking up distressed assets. Have they missed the boat?

- Lots of news to still come out of Thailand for permit awards, Australia and Indonesia. Should be interesting. 

- Civil unrest in Thai capital. 

JTLP


----------



## doogie_goes_off (25 February 2010)

Has ticked down to 50c, would seem like reasonable value with oil back around $80/barrel. Considering getting back in, definitely if it pushes back towards 45c.


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## Garpal Gumnut (27 February 2010)

CVN is still in a trading range, a bit closer to its 50% retracement than of late. Its a bit of a dilemma. Should one buy, sell or hold. 

Ain't life interesting.

I'm not one for funnymentals but ole Thankskinsusealot has had a resounding defeat in the courts and his loyal followers are getting their knickers in a knot and may threaten the rule of law.

Also the ole King is heading into the flu season again and may get unwell, always guaranteed to upset business in Thailand.

My gut feeling is it will break up again out of this range, and buying at the bottom of it, with a close stop and selling at 60-64c may be the way to go. 

I'll decide at 10 am on Monday morning.

gg


----------



## growing (1 March 2010)

It's hard to see where this low profit result will take it ??

Profit down 60% when compared to the previous year -- the share price has been hit .... so it maybe some time before we see a recovery ??? The March reserves position will be interesting....


----------



## Lachlan6 (1 March 2010)

Broken very strong support today and looks to be headed lower. The decline from June last year looks to be part of a larger correction which will probably pan out in three waves. One to keep an eye on but certainly not for the immediate future.


----------



## doogie_goes_off (1 March 2010)

Poor profit numbers will probably push the price down to double half year earnings more like a P/E of 15-18, so perhaps as low as 35c?? The upside of CVN is always greater production, they need further discoveries.


----------



## JTLP (1 March 2010)

If it hits 30's im in. Reserves update in March; exciting projects/drill prospects in 2010/11...ability to increase production if needed. I wouldn't mind too much about the profit drop...they clearly explained why this was the case.

People like big profit numbers but what about drilling success...don't worry about this one


----------



## Garpal Gumnut (5 March 2010)

Trader Paul said:


> Hi folks,
> 
> CVN ... astrostuff has us figuring on March 2010, as being a huge month,
> as several positive time cycles come into play:
> ...




Those who ignore Paul do so at their peril.

A convincing pivot point and buyer strength on high volume points to CVN going back up to 63c.

gg


----------



## Silhouetteau (7 March 2010)

New report out from Hartleys on the Carnarvon site. They lowered the 6 month target to 69c and are also slightly less bullish in the commentary.

(Can't post link due to low post count but it's the second announcement down on their site)

Hold CVN


----------



## pixel (7 March 2010)

Garpal Gumnut said:


> A convincing pivot point and buyer strength on high volume points to CVN going back up to 63c.



For over 6 months, CVN has been confined inside a 13c horizontal channel. Last week, it fell through the bottom and it remains to be seen whether that was a "false break" or a new Lower Low. Only if it makes a Higher High - iaw, breaks 55c - I'll give it an outside chance of returning to the top.

Just as likely does it seem to me, however, that the lower gaps exert some attraction, causing the current downtrend to continue into the 30's. As the chart demonstrates, MACD Divergence has in the past had only limited success. And volume spikes have also been observed in rallies and when tops met resistance.


----------



## Garpal Gumnut (7 March 2010)

pixel said:


> For over 6 months, CVN has been confined inside a 13c horizontal channel. Last week, it fell through the bottom and it remains to be seen whether that was a "false break" or a new Lower Low. Only if it makes a Higher High - iaw, breaks 55c - I'll give it an outside chance of returning to the top.
> 
> Just as likely does it seem to me, however, that the lower gaps exert some attraction, causing the current downtrend to continue into the 30's. As the chart demonstrates, MACD Divergence has in the past had only limited success. And volume spikes have also been observed in rallies and when tops met resistance.




A very reasonable assessment. Lets see where the big money goes next week. A few instos will be after CVN.

gg


----------



## Tukker (9 March 2010)

JTLP said:


> If it hits 30's im in. Reserves update in March; exciting projects/drill prospects in 2010/11...ability to increase production if needed. I wouldn't mind too much about the profit drop...they clearly explained why this was the case.
> 
> People like big profit numbers but what about drilling success...don't worry about this one




Sounds like advice  watch out!  

I wonder how much of the upgrade hoped for in March is factored in to the current price.  

Large volume dip and a break down tells a story of lackluster expectations.  With results out so soon, the sp usually enjoys a few moments of gains as punters latch on for a potential ride.  This is not the case i see for cvn, im worried that after the results are presented there might be another dump of the stock (barring anything less than spectacular details).

With this in the back of my mind technically i see 30's like pixel was suggesting.

I do not hold, but on watch list.

*is prepared to eat his words*


----------



## JTLP (16 March 2010)

So it's getting to the end of March...are nervous hands selling out for fear of a poor reserves update? Trader's taking their place to pounce on an opportunity? Volume has been pretty low so most likely not.

CVN are starting to get pretty slack on the news front. I'm pretty disappointed they really didn't go after anything when they had the 'war chest' handy...wasn't that the whole plan? Now they just have a couple of dimes in comparison. 

So really we are expecting 2 things by the end of March:
- Reserves update
- Drilling update

They'll probably group these together...especially if 1 or the other are cactus. Am seriously wondering what the catalyst could be for CVN to push up? GG you have any thoughts?

Once upon a time this was touted as the next big thing...but with production declines (although explained it's still troubling) and no great oil finds in some time the ole CVN is starting to look like the Thai king


----------



## JTLP (18 March 2010)

Ye olde Carnarvon was up a few ticks today...I still suspect it's people getting in before the reserves update. Be warned folks...could be an almighty thud if the update is cactus!

She has been trending sideways for awhile...something's gotta give right?


----------



## pixel (18 March 2010)

JTLP said:


> Ye olde Carnarvon was up a few ticks today...I still suspect it's people getting in before the reserves update. Be warned folks...could be an almighty thud if the update is cactus!
> 
> She has been trending sideways for awhile...something's gotta give right?




She needs to move up a few more ticks - say 51c or above - before there is even a glimmer of hope that the recent Higher Low might be followed by a Higher High. Till then I maintain my Short position entered into mid-January.


----------



## Trader Paul (20 March 2010)

Trader Paul said:


> Posted 25 01 2010:
> 
> Hi folks,
> 
> ...






Hi folks,

CVN ... as per post above, in late January 2010, CVN has a 
couple of positive time cycles coming together this week and 
we may get some good news, around 24-26032010 ..... 

have a great weekend

   paul



=====


----------



## JTLP (20 March 2010)

Haha Paul I hope you get this one right mate! I just flicked through your predictions then from Feb onwards and they were all the opposite! 

Moved up 2 cents on Friday to close at .50. No report from POE overnight so i'm guessing these hands will hold on a little longer for the reserves or bail on tuesday if there is still nothing. 

Here's hoping the reserves update is half decent.


----------



## JTLP (24 March 2010)

JTLP said:


> Haha Paul I hope you get this one right mate! I just flicked through your predictions then from Feb onwards and they were all the opposite!
> 
> Moved up 2 cents on Friday to close at .50. No report from POE overnight so i'm guessing these hands will hold on a little longer for the reserves or bail on tuesday if there is still nothing.
> 
> Here's hoping the reserves update is half decent.




Please find attached a chart for CVN...As you can see from August '09 to today she has gradually been drifting lower...needs something positive to break this downtrend.

I predicted Monday right for CVN but on the Tuesday she actually came back to close at .495. Bit of a bailout today to close at .480...my suspicions...people wanting the POE ann last night (usually they release on tuesday nights for AUS) and nothing come through.

Ahh well life goes on for CVN...let's hope for oil in that ground and increased production...


----------



## growing (26 March 2010)

Astro trading ??? Hahah no wonder reality was the opposite to predictions. I looked up at the stars and the moon and decided the time was right for me to meet Dr Who and travel through Time and Space in the TARDIS but alas my prediction didn't come true 

As for Reality and CVN OMG it is sitting at 46 cents!!!!!! Can anyone predict a bottom for this one ??

Even with the reserve upgrades I'm unsure what impact it will have -- maybe it will get pushed back to the 50 cent level but their huge drop in profits must be weighing down heavily.


----------



## Miner (26 March 2010)

Trader Paul said:


> Hi folks,
> 
> CVN ... as per post above, in late January 2010, CVN has a
> couple of positive time cycles coming together this week and
> ...






JTLP said:


> Please find attached a chart for CVN...As you can see from August '09 to today she has gradually been drifting lower...needs something positive to break this downtrend.
> 
> I predicted Monday right for CVN but on the Tuesday she actually came back to close at .495. Bit of a bailout today to close at .480...my suspicions...people wanting the POE ann last night (usually they release on tuesday nights for AUS) and nothing come through.
> 
> Ahh well life goes on for CVN...let's hope for oil in that ground and increased production...






growing said:


> Astro trading ??? Hahah no wonder reality was the opposite to predictions. I looked up at the stars and the moon and decided the time was right for me to meet Dr Who and travel through Time and Space in the TARDIS but alas my prediction didn't come true
> 
> As for Reality and CVN OMG it is sitting at 46 cents!!!!!! Can anyone predict a bottom for this one ??
> 
> Even with the reserve upgrades I'm unsure what impact it will have -- maybe it will get pushed back to the 50 cent level but their huge drop in profits must be weighing down heavily.




Folks

I share your frustration.

I think it is a poor joke  behind astro analysis in share marekt forum and getting a jail free card every time raises the question if there is a dark ness behind the candle stand?

Why are the moderators so blind folded with such rampings in the name of astro analysis ?

Why the self claimed  astro analyst is so shameless never publishes his predictions and actualities ? How is it different from a normal ramping ? 

It has been a joke to see how ASF moderators have taken an exception to such posting under a stock name. I have nothing to say if such predictions are made against general topic but definitely raising question when in spite of several concerns raised astro bluffs are allowed under a spefic stock thread. 
It is just not transparent


----------



## JTLP (26 March 2010)

Miner...

I share your sentiments re: Astro Analysis...Trader Paul seems to only highlight when things go right. To me it is a blatant ramp if you don't have any physical evidence/basis? Who is to stop me from saying CVN will be $1.20 by Christmas because Santa is feeling extra generous and CVN has been nice this year...

Moderators I honestly believe all analysis can be used fairly and such...but fundamental and technical analysis has merit/value/theory. Where is the theory in saying the stars are aligned?

Trader Paul if you can provide some detail or a link on a site to see how it works then I'll more then happily take it on board as another piece in the puzzle...until then I too must question this technique.

BACK TO CVN

Slipped down to 46 cents today. She is really one sick puppy right now. Echoing my need for the Reserves update and drilling update to be something special now...On the charts the next stop will be .430/.435...if it bounces of this with volume and strength then I would consider purchasing a small amount. A break through this and it goes to its yearly low of 33 cents   Increased volume today as well...all in all not a good sign.

Miner do you hold?


----------



## pixel (26 March 2010)

JTLP said:


> Miner...
> 
> I share your sentiments re: Astro Analysis...Trader Paul seems to only highlight when things go right. To me it is a blatant ramp if you don't have any physical evidence/basis? Who is to stop me from saying CVN will be $1.20 by Christmas because Santa is feeling extra generous and CVN has been nice this year...
> 
> ...




Amazing ! I thought astrology had a place - near the back of some women's mags you find in cheap hairdressing salons and general medical waiting rooms "Madam Sandra" or "Athena Starwoman" kind of psycho's. That anybody could take such drivel serious, especially in share trading, hasn't yet occurred to me. So, thanks for enlightening me - I've learned something new 

Seriously: I've known a very sincere fellow trader, who studied extremely hard to master the (astrology-inspired) Gann cycles. Every time one of his cycles seemed to fit, it was "spot on, proof these cycles do work." 
As I said, he is a most sincere and likeable gentleman; that's why I gave him the benefit of the doubt and tried to fit cycles over a range of ASX shares. If there is such a thing as a natural, repeating cycle, it ought to show up at least with a recogniseable repetitive pattern - right?
Well, it should; sadly, it doesn't. No matter how small a swing we choose to identify a High or Low, there simply is no correlation between price extrema and cycles. Sure, if you go back in a chart and pick a significant Low or High, you can quite often find another High that comes about 60 or 90 or 144 days later - or 3/5ths or 5/8ths of such sacred periods, give or take a day or two. Problem is: Nobody can tell in advance, from which Low or High to start, or whether it's 3/8ths of a 144 cycle or 5/9ths of bugger-all. Analysing up to 20 years' worth of price data, I found Lows and Highs of any kind were distributed in an absolute random fashion.

That may disappoint any Gann or Astrology disciples, but I take it as proof positive that tossing a coin will be at least as accurate a predictor:
Heads = Up, Tails = Down, Edge = Sideways.


----------



## JTLP (31 March 2010)

Hooray! The Ann is out from POE. Nice reserves increase and I'm happy to be holding CVN. Still oil in the ground and lots of drilling in the future too =). 

Full details of net reserves % to CVN will be annouced tomorrow but for now the POE Ann can be found at: www.panorient.ca 

JTLP


----------



## prgudula (1 April 2010)

If any one missed the announcement.

9 Million Barrel Reserves Upgrade
31 March 2010

Record 2P Reserves Increase
Carnarvon Petroleum Limited (“Carnarvon”) (ASX: CVN) is
pleased to advise that its net 2P oil reserves have increased by
9.0 million barrels (before allowing for calendar year 2009
production) to 24.5 million barrels as at 31 December 2009, an
increase of 48%.

 more update 

http://www.asx.com.au/asxpdf/20100331/pdf/31pk4w8hk6g4lj.pdf


----------



## mkelpie (2 April 2010)

Any revised forecasts of the share price? Does anyone feel the price rise after announcement was a but under whelming?


----------



## Garpal Gumnut (2 April 2010)

mkelpie said:


> Any revised forecasts of the share price? Does anyone feel the price rise after announcement was a but under whelming?




I don't forecast, however CVN has been in a downtrend since mid 2009 and on the weeklies is now in a fair dinkum descending triangle with volumes up on down movements within the triangle, which usually ends in sadness, if you are long a stock.

Although on the one hand Paul says its going up, and on the other the ole king is heading in to flu season and the ole Thailand is unstable, then I'm not a funnymentalist or a gannist, so I'll leave predictions to you guys.

To me it looks crook for the reasons above.

I'll be in again at 20c

gg


----------



## JTLP (18 April 2010)

Garpal Gumnut said:


> I don't forecast, however CVN has been in a downtrend since mid 2009 and on the weeklies is now in a fair dinkum descending triangle with volumes up on down movements within the triangle, which usually ends in sadness, if you are long a stock.
> 
> Although on the one hand Paul says its going up, and on the other the ole king is heading in to flu season and the ole Thailand is unstable, then I'm not a funnymentalist or a gannist, so I'll leave predictions to you guys.
> 
> ...




Oil has taken another beating and CVN will no doubt follow suit tomorrow. They did release a very reassuring investor presentation recently and true believers in CVN should have a read...very insightful and interesting. Wells, SRB Tax regime...everything is covered.

But alas...CVN is still in a downtrend and will need some positive wells results to hopefully turn the tide. Until then it's watching and waiting...


----------



## Garpal Gumnut (18 April 2010)

JTLP said:


> Oil has taken another beating and CVN will no doubt follow suit tomorrow. They did release a very reassuring investor presentation recently and true believers in CVN should have a read...very insightful and interesting. Wells, SRB Tax regime...everything is covered.
> 
> But alas...CVN is still in a downtrend and will need some positive wells results to hopefully turn the tide. Until then it's watching and waiting...




Should CVN drop below 44c , I would be out if I were still a holder. It is dawdling at the end of this triangle on the weeklies, as I said in my last post.

Watch for high volume and a falling price next week, stronger players getting out , if that happens.

gg


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## Garpal Gumnut (20 April 2010)

0.47 -0.01‎ (-2.11%‎)  20 Apr 4:10pm AEST
Open: 	0.47
High: 	0.47
Low: 	0.46

Volume: 	1,566,448
Avg Vol: 	N/A
Mkt Cap: 	317.91M

gg


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## JTLP (28 April 2010)

Garpal Gumnut said:


> Should CVN drop below 44c , I would be out if I were still a holder. It is dawdling at the end of this triangle on the weeklies, as I said in my last post.
> 
> Watch for high volume and a falling price next week, stronger players getting out , if that happens.
> 
> gg




Good pick GG.

CVN hit and closed on it's daily low of 42 cents today. I'm gearing up funds for a pick up in the 30's/20's god forbid. Long term this is fantastic (see latest presentation). Sentiment and technicals aren't helping this one's cause for now.

Should some positive oil flows come through I still wouldn't hold hope of a return to form any time soon...


----------



## growing (6 May 2010)

JTLP said:


> Good pick GG.
> 
> CVN hit and closed on it's daily low of 42 cents today. I'm gearing up funds for a pick up in the 30's/20's god forbid. Long term this is fantastic (see latest presentation). Sentiment and technicals aren't helping this one's cause for now.
> 
> Should some positive oil flows come through I still wouldn't hold hope of a return to form any time soon...




The Quarterly came out and seriously I am at a total loss on why this stock has no legs at the moment.

Big PROFITS and BIG reserves are not good enough for the market? What do they want to see? 

I will make a prediction:

"CVN FINDS 10 TRILLION, ZILLION U.S dollars in Hidden GOLD whilst drilling for oil - The THAI Government says "Meh you guys just keep it all""

The the share price tanks down to 1cent!!

lol


----------



## JTLP (6 May 2010)

growing said:


> The Quarterly came out and seriously I am at a total loss on why this stock has no legs at the moment.
> 
> Big PROFITS and BIG reserves are not good enough for the market? What do they want to see?
> 
> ...




no need to worry growing. Fundamentally CVN is sound...great profitability, great reserves, zero debt etc. Their problem is the liquidity of the stock, the sharp fall in oil prices (CVN doesn't achieve full price already for it's oil type so a drop doesn't help) and general market sentiment. I'm hanging in there though...powder is dry to get more...and Teddy bought more.


----------



## eddyeagle (7 May 2010)

CVN just keeps trending lower and lower!

30c anyone?

Will be looking to get back in at some time at the right price...


----------



## pixel (8 May 2010)

eddyeagle said:


> CVN just keeps trending lower and lower!
> 
> 30c anyone?
> 
> Will be looking to get back in at some time at the right price...




30c sounds about right.
As has been mentioned (and verified) on several occasions, CVN likes to close old gaps, no matter how long it takes. The two current ones go down to 38c and 30c. While the former has already been closed, we're halfway down to the next one. *No guarantees*, you'll understand - but before I'd buy into CVN above 34c, I'd want to be pretty certain that's where it's currently supported. _Au contraire, _I see the famous "Horse" formation play out: the rider has held on to the mane, but slid out of the saddle and further and further back. Finally, nothing can keep him from sliding off the rear end. Getting trampled is not my idea of a successful trade


----------



## lucifuge (13 May 2010)

You guys are missing are fundamental trend in the data.....

**Based on this trend history only**...$0.37-ish seems critical in terms of trend_resistance.


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## JTLP (21 May 2010)

So yesterday CVN were advised to halt delivery of their crude to the Bangkok refinery on security concerns. These concerns have been eased but as there is a curfew in place they can only deliver between certain times (better then no delivery at all).

An update also came out today with some good news regarding their oil fields...especially Bo Rang B. More oil is always a good thing...keep it up CVN. Also managed to finish in the green after opening at 30 cents!

Here is the operations update:
http://asx.com.au/asxpdf/20100521/pdf/31qfzmrjk864qg.pdf


----------



## Garpal Gumnut (30 May 2010)

lucifuge said:


> You guys are missing are fundamental trend in the data.....
> 
> **Based on this trend history only**...$0.37-ish seems critical in terms of trend_resistance.




I enclose my take on CVN.

As it happened my prediction of a descending triangle on the weeklies breaking to the short side came true. 

I now see the next level of support, not at 0.37 but at 0.24.

Enclosed is an up to date weekly with the next major decision by punters to be made at 0.24, a previous resistance and support level.

gg

.


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## doogie_goes_off (30 May 2010)

That's a bit scary GG. However, it does seem like a fair assesment of the graph. The fundamentals of increasing production should see this hold above that level. I'll be looking for sideways movement and a new base of support before making any predictions of a recovery in price, also the political situation may have to stabilise before some buyers return.


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## Garpal Gumnut (2 June 2010)

Its .32 tonight.

I'll be getting gumnuts ready for the trading range about .24

It is a very interesting company the ole CVN.

gg


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## zerolimit (3 June 2010)

ive been increasing my holding as the SP goes down, i just don't see any good reasons for it, the political situation is stabalising and really didn't affect the operations anyway.

If it does break the .30 mark and head down i will be increasing my holding.. escpecially if it hits 0.24


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## eddyeagle (22 June 2010)

This thread has been a little quiet recently... 

CVN hit a low of 30c a month ago and has since rallied to close at 37.5 c yesterday... Could this be the start of something or do you think we are still looking at mid 20s?


----------



## spudda (22 June 2010)

I think the Price has bottomed out now and should see growth as economies around the world recover (may still be a year away) but I would expect share pice to grow along with the recovery of world markets... After all the stock did take a big hit in the recent falls and concerns about the stablity of Thailand...


----------



## Garpal Gumnut (27 July 2010)

eddyeagle said:


> This thread has been a little quiet recently...
> 
> CVN hit a low of 30c a month ago and has since rallied to close at 37.5 c yesterday... Could this be the start of something or do you think we are still looking at mid 20s?




There is quite an interesting sideways movement in CVN at the moment and a close watch on open, high, low, close and volume, may pay dividends for those who can catch a recovery. It may continue down though, at least one can study it now with some chance of a move to the long side.

http://bigcharts.marketwatch.com/charts/big.chart?symb=au%3Acvn&compidx=aaaaa%3A0&ma=0&maval=9&uf=0&lf=1&lf2=0&lf3=0&type=2&size=2&state=8&sid=137552&style=320&time=8&freq=1&nosettings=1&rand=5282&mocktick=1&rand=9278


gg


----------



## subasurf (27 July 2010)

I'm sitting on an 11 percent profit on CVN right now. Considering taking my profit, but there seams to be a bit of support at around 32 cents which would hopefully protect me from a big loss as my buy in was 33 cents.

Can't decide if I should wait and see if it breaks and creeps closer to my target of 50 cents. With my AUT stocks doing sweet FA, I'm awfully tempted to lock in some profit.


----------



## pixel (27 July 2010)

well, CVN did rally yesterday - but I hope you know the effect of a dark cloud cover.
While today's candle may not qualify 100% - DCC is considered most accurate when it closes in the lower half of the prvious day's body - I'd rather wait for an opportunity to buy at 34c, possibly even less?


----------



## UMike (29 July 2010)

Over 40c at the moment.

Hope it doesn't retest that 34c mark.

Quite a few anns from Thailand and NZ.


----------



## Garpal Gumnut (29 July 2010)

CVN is travelling well, lets hope the ole King of Thailand doesn't get a cold, I have one at the moment, or that they don't start arguing over what colour shirt to wear in Thailand.

Sovereign risk is my main concern with this mob. 

I'm loaded up again with them.

gg


----------



## pixel (29 July 2010)

Yes, sovereign risk is a worry.
Not so much the possibility of a dip back to 34c - to me anyway.
While I was too cautious - although I did say it's not a 100% card-carrying DCC - I feel much better being out trying to buy back in, than I would feel had I bought at 38 and the DCC had driven it back to 34 or lower.
Some people (especially "over there") are happy to average down even when they're already 30% under water. They either have money to burn, nerves of steel, or no real idea of capital preservation.  'nuff said 

But all of you that hold: I sincerely wish you Good luck, and may you make a mint when it's time to sell!


----------



## JTLP (7 September 2010)

This Ann will make a lot of people happy:

http://www.marketwire.com/press-rel...ests-at-5300-BOPD-TSX-VENTURE-POE-1314402.htm

Highest onshore flow rates ever recorded in Thailand. 

CVN should get a nice kick tomorrow.


----------



## subasurf (8 September 2010)

Good news for me 
I was awfully disappointed in not dumping this stock when it broke the 40 cent mark. Glad I held onto it now


----------



## eddyeagle (1 October 2010)

Nice little 8% jump today to close at 47 cents. Broken through the 200 day moving average too which is a good sign. Things could be picking up...


----------



## Garpal Gumnut (1 October 2010)

I've sent some lemons to the ole King o' Thailand to keep him fit.
This more than anything will determine CVN's future.
Sovereign risk is the only problem.

gg


----------



## Garpal Gumnut (3 October 2010)

Its off again, lets hang on for the run up to 50c., the 62c. 

The ole king got the lemons.

A chart 

gg


----------



## joea (3 October 2010)

Hi.
CVN  has achieved a 94% increase in net oil  in Thialand with just 3 wells.
This adds 3,564 bopd. Two other well are shut in with 1,388 bopd.


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## eddyeagle (19 October 2010)

CVN creeping up slowly - bit by bit - closed at 52 cents today... Volume increasing too. Doesnt seem to be much resistance between here and 62 cents so let the good times roll!


----------



## It's Snake Pliskin (27 October 2010)

CVN has peaked at .53cents and I see predictions in the thread of 50cents then 62 cents. Who sees it as a continuing rising price either from technical or fundamental criteria and how would the future price of oil be factored into the price?


----------



## JTLP (27 October 2010)

It's Snake Pliskin said:


> CVN has peaked at .53cents and I see predictions in the thread of 50cents then 62 cents. Who sees it as a continuing rising price either from technical or fundamental criteria and how would the future price of oil be factored into the price?




Hi Snake,

CVN has a pretty bright future. It's run up to the 80's last time had less of a success story than now.

Drilling thus far in the new area (I think NSE or WBEXT) has proven to be 100% successful; 1 of the wells drilled has had the highest onshore flowrate in Thailand; and a lot more drilling to come.

There are also pending farm-out agreements off the coast of WA, drilling in L20/50 I believe in the 4th QTR with SUR and maybe something in the mix with Indo & Pearl Oil for more drilling in Thai.

Sorry I'm a bit tired but there is still a lot to love about ole CVN. I think you'll find that the volatile trading today has been a result of people gearing up on Monday and Tuesday for an ann out of Thailand (due around now).


----------



## UMike (28 October 2010)

I agree with JTLP although I sold 2/3s of my holdings at $.525

I'll be happy to pick up half of that thrid at around 48c if it gets there.


Expect a bit of choppy trading for a while. Also the floods in Thailand may have some short term effect.


----------



## UMike (3 November 2010)

UMike said:


> I agree with JTLP although I sold 2/3s of my holdings at $.525
> 
> I'll be happy to pick up half of that thrid at around 48c if it gets there.
> 
> ...



Nice dip to 47c

Picked up where I left off @47.5c.

Hopefully a couple of the below predictions come to light.


----------



## It's Snake Pliskin (4 November 2010)

Thanks for the replies guys. I have some and just curious as to what the current mood was.


----------



## growing (2 December 2010)

It's Snake Pliskin said:


> Thanks for the replies guys. I have some and just curious as to what the current mood was.




It is shame CVN ran out of steam so quickly.. 

I hold, in fact I have slowly increased my holdings over the years but I can't hold them forever. My exit plan is the $1 mark. It has been my exit plan for years and here I sit at 45 cents..

Despite the unpredictability of volcanic reservoirs on production rates, I believe this stock does not deserve this treatment.

But I am also bias.


----------



## Garpal Gumnut (2 December 2010)

It's Snake Pliskin said:


> Thanks for the replies guys. I have some and just curious as to what the current mood was.




I'd hang in mate. I've fallen for a prominent Green lady in Spring Hill who has banned my notebook and can only post from Internet cafes when let out to buy soy milk, ouzo and falafel ( don't ask ).

I'll post a chart when I return to the safety of Lennons.

gg


----------



## Garpal Gumnut (14 January 2011)

I do like an oiler that can bounce off a round number like 40c. 

CVN has shown resilience and on the volume and price action looks set for a move up.

40c has been support and resistance many times for CVN.

gg


----------



## lvsmr2 (10 February 2011)

Hi,

What gives with CVN's share price? I'm assuming their announcement today wasn't what investors were expecting? Really disappointed in the share performance of late considering where the oil price is at the moment.


----------



## It's Snake Pliskin (10 February 2011)

I bought on bullishness and have had nothing but bearishness since.


----------



## It's Snake Pliskin (10 February 2011)

Garpal Gumnut said:


> I'd hang in mate. I've fallen for a prominent Green lady in Spring Hill who has banned my notebook and can only post from Internet cafes when let out to buy soy milk, ouzo and falafel ( don't ask ).
> 
> I'll post a chart when I return to the safety of Lennons.
> 
> gg



And what are your thoughts on this now? Does the falafel help in situations like this?


----------



## lvsmr2 (10 February 2011)

It's Snake Pliskin said:


> And what are your thoughts on this now? Does the falafel help in situations like this?




I think this stock needs more than a falafel to get out of the dog house.


----------



## It's Snake Pliskin (18 February 2011)

Garpal Gumnut said:


> I do like an oiler that can bounce off a round number like 40c.
> 
> CVN has shown resilience and on the volume and price action looks set for a move up.
> 
> ...




GG, See it has dropped below it today just a little. 

I'm munching on cereal and having coffee thinking away.


----------



## Aargh! (25 February 2011)

Garpal Gumnut said:


> I do like an oiler that can bounce off a round number like 40c.
> 
> CVN has shown resilience and on the volume and price action looks set for a move up.
> 
> ...




Hi Garpal,

Was wondering what you're thoughts are with the current chart?

Cheers


----------



## Garpal Gumnut (25 February 2011)

Aargh! said:


> Hi Garpal,
> 
> Was wondering what you're thoughts are with the current chart?
> 
> Cheers




Please excuse me for not replying to earlier posts on CVN, I've been busy getting everything I can out of the ASX, in to Cash, Gold and Property.

CVN does not look good, a concern as it is an Energy/Oiler.

It may find support at 30c.

When I'm in doubt I look at a longer term chart, which I enclose. In the present climate, it would appear that it has little or no support between 30 and 40c, there are more sellers than buyers and on the daily basis it closes towards its lows ( chart not included) , its also fallen 4% this am. So for buyers 30-31c may be a good entry, for sellers its too late. 

gg


----------



## Garpal Gumnut (6 March 2011)

CVN continues to retreat.

Do not imho, be comforted any holders, by the recent rise.

I'm still guessing it will reach the low 30's , maybe lower.

Watch for a sell down on high volume, really high, not just this mickey mouse stuff recently and then a close close to the high for the day, it seems to be a pattern with CVN, when its ready to take off up again.

gg


----------



## lvsmr2 (12 April 2011)

Garpal Gumnut said:


> CVN continues to retreat.
> 
> Do not imho, be comforted any holders, by the recent rise.
> 
> ...





Any ideas on where the SP is heading at the moment? Even though the SP has been abismal of late, I cant believe on top of that, that it's the worst performer today as well. Cut CVN some slack here.


----------



## LifeChoices (5 May 2011)

lvsmr2 said:


> Any ideas on where the SP is heading at the moment? Even though the SP has been abismal of late, I cant believe on top of that, that it's the worst performer today as well. Cut CVN some slack here.




I noticed a turnaround in support for CVN for the first time in weeks. I'm punting that they will be heading North for a while.


----------



## pixel (6 May 2011)

LifeChoices said:


> I noticed a turnaround in support for CVN for the first time in weeks. I'm punting that they will be heading North for a while.



 Could be worth a punt - with a very short leash/ tight stop. Last two candles are green.



but the weekly chart looks still "bluddy awful" and I wouldn't take my eye off it were I to hold with a longer-term view. (not holding any atm)


----------



## LifeChoices (13 May 2011)

pixel said:


> Could be worth a punt - with a very short leash/ tight stop. Last two candles are green.




Yeah it was worth the punt - got rid of them today.

My half baked, two bit trading idea said today it's time to sell. Made a nice little 18% profit on them though in a few days. 

Kind of feel sorry for the person I bought them off, but then again - maybe I bought my BNB shares from them.


----------



## yusufn93 (1 June 2011)

at 0.22 today anyone think this is a good short term spec buy?


----------



## Joe Blow (1 June 2011)

yusufn93 said:


> at 0.22 today anyone think this is a good short term spec buy?




Please note that we do not permit ASF members to make "buy" or "sell" recommendations on particular stocks, as this may be considered the provision of financial advice which only licensed financial advisers can legally offer.

For this reason we ask that ASF members not request "buy" or "sell" recommendations from others but simply discuss particular stocks in more general terms.

As you are new, please be sure to take a few minutes to read the ASF Posting Guidelines which details what we expect from those posting here at ASF.


----------



## yusufn93 (1 June 2011)

Joe Blow said:


> Please note that we do not permit ASF members to make "buy" or "sell" recommendations on particular stocks, as this may be considered the provision of financial advice which only licensed financial advisers can legally offer.
> 
> For this reason we ask that ASF members not request "buy" or "sell" recommendations from others but simply discuss particular stocks in more general terms.
> 
> As you are new, please be sure to take a few minutes to read the ASF Posting Guidelines which details what we expect from those posting here at ASF.




Thanks and my apologies,

To rephrase, Who here is personally interested in buying CVN share speculatively?

Is this the correct way to phrase a question?


----------



## Joe Blow (1 June 2011)

yusufn93 said:


> Thanks and my apologies,
> 
> To rephrase, Who here is personally interested in buying CVN share speculatively?
> 
> Is this the correct way to phrase a question?




That's fine. I would also add, "If so, why?" to encourage others to post more detail.

There are other ways as well:

"Does anyone here feel that CVN is undervalued at its current price of 21.5c?"

or

"At its current price of 21.5c are there any ASF members who feel that CVN offers value at these levels? If so, what do you think is holding it back?"

Of course, it would be even better if you added your own thoughts.


----------



## Country Lad (2 June 2011)

yusufn93 said:


> Thanks and my apologies,
> 
> To rephrase, Who here is personally interested in buying CVN share speculatively?




Not me, I don't buy shares in downtrend especially when the company is not going particularly well.



> As outlined in the March 2011 quarterly report, the Company had limited success in drilling four exploration wells at Concession L44/43 during the previous quarter, which when coupled with shutting in wells to meet license requirements, resulted in lower production rates. Exploration wells were drilled at Si Thep, Na Sanun East (NSE-E4) and two new exploration areas (L44-E and L44-F) resulting in three unsuccessful wells and one well with minor oil production.
> At Concession L33/43 work continued during the past month around sidetracking the L33-2 well in order to evaluate the WBV1 volcanic reservoir. This well is on test and producing at low oil rates.




The rest of the report is not exactly glowing.  I'd wait till there is a demonstrated turnaround from their 6 month downtrend .

Cheers
Country Lad


----------



## muddy waters (15 June 2011)

yusufn93 said:


> Thanks and my apologies,
> 
> To rephrase, Who here is personally interested in buying CVN share speculatively?
> 
> Is this the correct way to phrase a question?




Sorry I'm not professionally qualified to answer your question.  However there is an article in the Australian today about AWE Limited. When reading the journalist's advice given there I could not stop from relating it to Carnarvon [although AWE may be more progressed on the production side].

 Sure initial wells are possibly drying up and exploration results have not been rosey, but this company is debt free and has only recently spread its risk by reaching beyond Thailand.

It's a speculative buy, but also a small producer looking to expand in the future!


----------



## pixel (15 June 2011)

fwiw, my tuppence of opinion: 
1. The sovereign risk in the region, and the unpredictable ground ("volcanic") scare "it" out of me.
2. The chart, upon which I baseall my trade decisions, suggests the Market is no longer "in love" with CVN.
Somewhere between current levels (18c) and the 2005 Low of 2c, it may find support. The chart will tell me when and where. Right now, that's not the case.


----------



## JTLP (18 September 2011)

Going on Pixels chart - and looking at CVN of late - it seems to have found some love around the 15 cent mark. I've ridden this one for quite some time (too long it would appear now ) and the lofty heights of the 80's seem a distant dream.

Brokers have slapped reports on this around the 50 cent mark...but with dwindling production and no new great finds things aren't looking too flash. I'd be tempted to pick up some when drill results start hitting some black gold but for now i'll wait it out before an average down...


----------



## pixel (19 September 2011)

JTLP said:


> Going on Pixels chart - and looking at CVN of late - it seems to have found some love around the 15 cent mark. I've ridden this one for quite some time (too long it would appear now ) and the lofty heights of the 80's seem a distant dream.
> 
> Brokers have slapped reports on this around the 50 cent mark...but with dwindling production and no new great finds things aren't looking too flash. I'd be tempted to pick up some when drill results start hitting some black gold but for now i'll wait it out before an average down...



 Good luck with it;
Agreed that one aspect suggests support, but there is also the falling resistance trend that puts a lid on proceedings. That downtrend needs to be broken with gusto (i.e. with buying volume topping 10M per day) before I'd start buying. So far, I'm out and staying out.


----------



## pixel (24 February 2012)

pixel said:


> Somewhere between current levels (18c) and the 2005 Low of 2c, it may find support. The chart will tell me when and where. Right now, that's not the case.



 Well, it did find support "somewhere" thereabouts.
As of this morning, I'm back on board "somewhere", with a st profit target of 15 or 16.5c


----------



## skc (12 March 2012)

This is looking interesting. If it heads back North then another 5-6c run from 13 may be feasible.


----------



## pixel (12 March 2012)

skc said:


> This is looking interesting. If it heads back North then another 5-6c run from 13 may be feasible.
> 
> View attachment 46401



 got my wish; took my profit; can't see much demand right now, so staying off a while.




still on the watchlist though


----------



## skc (12 March 2012)

pixel said:


> got my wish; took my profit; can't see much demand right now, so staying off a while.
> 
> still on the watchlist though




Yeah nice trade there pixel.

Buying CVN now would be a pretty aggressive entry, but a close watch and buy when 13.5c is being broken would offer decent risk/reward.


----------



## TrendGAIN (28 April 2012)

Technically it is looking weak for me, but the volume is drying up, so maybe we will see the end of the selling. There are a few levels we should see some support ($0.105, $0.085), so depending on how the price reacts to these will give us an indication of the strength.


----------



## pixel (15 August 2012)

I got back on board today:
Small entry position based on -

positive MACD
Monday's bottom reversal candle
"almost" matching Low (fell short 0.2c)
dried-up selling volume
steepest gradient broken late last week
My first target is 10c, which must be crossed swiftly; above that, it's 11 and 13.5c.




stop-loss 8.6c, which I may lift to break-even as soon as 10c is hit; or I may exit if 10c fails to be hit.


----------



## Tannin (15 August 2012)

^ Interesting. 

I bought back in on Friday at 9.1c but for very different reasons. I have owned CVN before and earlier this year (stupidly) round-tripped from 11.5c up to 19.5c and back again. I managed to salvage a small profit, selling out at 12.5c.

I've been watching CVN since that time. 

I liked the recent implied valuation of the company's Thai production assets at about 16c per share provided by the sale of a 60% share (CVN has the other 40%). If the Thai production assets alone are worth 16c, how much more should one allow for the Thai exporation prospects and the quite extensive offshore exploration area in NW Western Australia? 

I also liked the idea of some new production blood - as the new Thai operator, ECO has the opportunity to revisit and rethink the approach to a field which has so far been productive but technically challenging and seen shrinking output. Most of all, I liked the way the share price dropped on news of lower production where a large part of that drop was short-term administrative stuff to do with permits. Assuming that these issues can be successfully negotiated (talks began yesterday), the lost production can easily be made up. 

So at 9.1c, I decided to jump back in. So far, so good!

Is it not interesting that Pixel and I both jumped in for such very, very different reasons? Let's hope that we are both right!


----------



## Tannin (20 August 2012)

On Friday CVN rose nicely to 10c even. 

The next step though is the hard one - it's a much bigger step from 10c to 10.5c than it is to sneak up from 9.9c to 10c. With buyers lined up at 10c on Friday, 10.5c didn't seem out of the question on Monday and, sure enough, CVN opened at 10.5 and hasn't traded at any other price so far today. I am not tempted to sell out yet, though even now a 9.1 > 10.5c trade would be more than acceptable.


----------



## pixel (21 August 2012)

Tannin said:


> On Friday CVN rose nicely to 10c even.
> 
> The next step though is the hard one - it's a much bigger step from 10c to 10.5c than it is to sneak up from 9.9c to 10c. With buyers lined up at 10c on Friday, 10.5c didn't seem out of the question on Monday and, sure enough, CVN opened at 10.5 and hasn't traded at any other price so far today. I am not tempted to sell out yet, though even now a 9.1 > 10.5c trade would be more than acceptable.




As 10.5 was such a struggle, and sp settled back on 10c, I decided to take profit and put my money to work elsewhere. Among others, a quick 2c Intraday snip off AMX


----------



## Out Too Soon (29 November 2012)

I've attached the latest drilling report, looks like good news at last (it's a pdf file hope I did it right


----------



## pixel (29 November 2012)

Out Too Soon said:


> I've attached the latest drilling report, looks like good news at last (it's a pdf file hope I did it right




http://www.asx.com.au/asx/statistics/displayAnnouncement.do?display=pdf&idsId=01361925

They lost a drilling assembly for a start; need another 10 days to find out whether it's increasing production. I wouldn't call that "good news".
When I read a company report, I look at the first sentence: Is the company "*pleased*" to announce this or that? Or are they simply updating the market? If the "pleased" is missing and I happen to hold the stock, I'm heading for the "sell" order pad even before reading any further. That would definitely have been effective today - except that I haven't been Long CVN for a long time.


----------



## Out Too Soon (3 December 2012)

Thanks Pixel, heard of "selective hearing" well I was suffering from "selective reading" & only read what I wanted to read  I should know better, Carnarvon have been getting nowhere fast for years


----------



## spongebobby (17 December 2012)

Could be offering a good entry here


----------



## pixel (17 December 2012)

spongebobby said:


> Could be offering a good entry here




Again, in today's update, they don't say they're "pleased", simply updating the Market about the new spudding and informing us that it may take 10 days.
"Me no buy" ...


----------



## Garpal Gumnut (17 December 2012)

spongebobby said:


> Could be offering a good entry here






pixel said:


> Again, in today's update, they don't say they're "pleased", simply updating the Market about the new spudding and informing us that it may take 10 days.
> "Me no buy" ...




I have no idea what this mob are up to, I bought at 4c and sold for a good profit many years ago. A decade long monthly chart. It has always been a good charting stock.

http://bigcharts.marketwatch.com/kaavio.Webhost/charts/big.chart?nosettings=1&symb=AU%3aCVN&uf=0&type=2&size=2&sid=137552&style=320&freq=3&entitlementtoken=0c33378313484ba9b46b8e24ded87dd6&time=13&rand=220740851&compidx=aaaaa%3a0&ma=0&maval=9&lf=1&lf2=2&lf3=0&height=444&width=579&mocktick=1

The daily over 3 months looks as if there is some buying support.

http://bigcharts.marketwatch.com/kaavio.Webhost/charts/big.chart?nosettings=1&symb=AU%3aCVN&uf=0&type=2&size=2&sid=137552&style=320&freq=1&entitlementtoken=0c33378313484ba9b46b8e24ded87dd6&time=6&rand=441949833&compidx=aaaaa%3a0&ma=0&maval=9&lf=1&lf2=2&lf3=0&height=444&width=579&mocktick=1

CVN may actually be worth keeping an eye on at 5.6c.

gg


----------



## pixel (18 December 2012)

spongebobby said:


> Could be offering a good entry here




It seems the big boys are still selling. PULSE broker report shows net buyers are mainly online retail clients of NAB Online, ETrade, Aus Invest (Westpac), D2MX; although Citi is up there too; BTA, Morgan, UBS have been selling, but so did Commsec clients.


----------



## Garpal Gumnut (18 December 2012)

pixel said:


> It seems the big boys are still selling. PULSE broker report shows net buyers are mainly online retail clients of NAB Online, ETrade, Aus Invest (Westpac), D2MX; although Citi is up there too; BTA, Morgan, UBS have been selling, but so did Commsec clients.
> 
> View attachment 50013




Noice, very noice, a good blowoff may reveal support. Otherwise it is finito. It is about where I would buy, should buyers show with significant volume.

gg


----------



## pixel (19 December 2012)

Have to add two "big" net buyers, which I missed in the small print this morning:
"HarLim" has to be Hartleys Limited; "Macq" is of course Mackas.
When I noticed them - especially Hartleys - as top net buyers, I checked back to the announcement of the recent 8.2c cap raising. Guess who were joint lead managers ...
So, now their clients buy CVN. Could indeed be profitable to join them at these levels. ... at least till they're back around the spp level of 8.2c ...


----------



## Garpal Gumnut (19 December 2012)

pixel said:


> Have to add two "big" net buyers, which I missed in the small print this morning:
> "HarLim" has to be Hartleys Limited; "Macq" is of course Mackas.
> When I noticed them - especially Hartleys - as top net buyers, I checked back to the announcement of the recent 8.2c cap raising. Guess who were joint lead managers ...
> So, now their clients buy CVN. Could indeed be profitable to join them at these levels. ... at least till they're back around the spp level of 8.2c ...




Let us see the morrow.

gg


----------



## Garpal Gumnut (15 November 2013)

There seems to have been some recent movement up in the price of this stock.

It has been good to me and other ASF members in the past, I'm putting it on my watchlist again.

gg


----------



## Country Lad (15 November 2013)

Garpal Gumnut said:


> There seems to have been some recent movement up in the price of this stock.
> 
> It has been good to me and other ASF members in the past, I'm putting it on my watchlist again.
> 
> gg




I have it in my "waiting for a break" list.


----------



## pixel (21 November 2013)

We want more money: http://www.asx.com.au/asx/statistics/displ...;idsId=01467925

one for five at 6.4c

 was that the reason for the recent push higher?


----------



## UMike (14 August 2014)

Trading Halt

Looking forward to some good news regarding Phoenix South-1 Well


----------



## UMike (19 August 2014)

WOW...
Geat news for holders up 196.3%

Hard to assess this stock now as in, should profits be taken or stay for the ride.


----------



## HAICHUN HU (19 August 2014)

UMike said:


> WOW...
> Geat news for holders up 196.3%
> 
> Hard to assess this stock now as in, should profits be taken or stay for the ride.




The price up to 0.275 now.


----------



## UMike (19 August 2014)

HAICHUN HU said:


> The price up to 0.275 now.



Yea, I got just over a third on sale for 29c meaning the rest are free carried.

But don't really know what the stock is gonna do. Seems fairly weighted (Buyers/Sellers) atm.


----------



## pixel (20 August 2014)

HAICHUN HU said:


> The price up to 0.275 now.




It seems that "Elvis has left the building" - the smart money offloaded around 27c.
Those that bought the top will probably rue being sucked in. Given the depth of the pullback - well below midpoint of the range, and now even hovering below 1-phi - I can see another wave of profit taking/ stop-lossing adding more downward pressure.


----------



## Anmar (4 December 2014)

Highlights
● Carnarvon reaches agreement to divest the balance of its Thailand assets
● Total cash consideration of US$58.2  1 million (A$68.5 million   2) payable on completion
● Sale further strengthens Carnarvon’s balance sheet with cash forecast to exceed A$100
million immediately upon transaction completion
● Transaction consistent with Carnarvon’s renewed strategic focus on the North West Shelf
of Western Australia, with extensive work programme expected for 2015


----------



## pixel (4 December 2014)

Anmar said:


> Highlights
> ● Carnarvon reaches agreement to divest the balance of its Thailand assets
> ● Total cash consideration of US$58.2  1 million (A$68.5 million   2) payable on completion
> ● Sale further strengthens Carnarvon’s balance sheet with cash forecast to exceed A$100
> ...




When trading resumed at 12 noon, the initial excitement was rather short-lived. Given current market mood, the subsequent sell-off isn't really surprising. Let's see where it'll close today.


----------



## pixel (25 July 2016)

transferring discussion from Tape Trader's general Oil thread:

CVN may indeed have found support earlier this year, when it fell back to 7c.
However, I also see resistance at current levels, and I am in doubt whether this resistance is about to be broken or not. Some investors may take heart, interpreting the chart pattern of the latest 7-8 months as a Cup and Handle. However, the increasing volume of Friday's and today's sell-off suggest the opposite. 




For now, I'll stay off all oilers.


----------



## greggles (12 July 2018)

Carnarvon Petroleum moving up today after an update on the Dorado-1 well.


> The Dorado-1 well has drilled down from 3,640 metres Measured Depth (“MD”) to around 3,990 metres MD in 8-1/2” hole. From approximately 3,853 metres MD to 3,947 metres MD, logging while drilling tools indicated a number of sandstone intervals have been encountered as expected within the Caley Member. Elevated gas readings and increased resistivity were observed in interpreted porous and permeable zones,  indicating the presence of hydrocarbons. Wireline logging is required to obtain definitive results.




The CVN share price has just touched 17c and is looking like it might reach new highs soon.


----------



## greggles (18 July 2018)

Oil discovery for Carnarvon Petroleum at the Dorado-1 well.


> *Highlights*
> 
> *• Significant oil discovery in primary target, the Caley Sandstone
> • Excellent reservoir and fluid characteristics
> ...




CVN has gapped up on heavy volume this morning and is currently trading at 25.5c, up 44.71%. I have no idea how to value oil discoveries like this. Anyone else have any insights?


----------



## barney (20 July 2018)

Pity @Agentm is not still around. He'd give us all the ins and outs of this.  

80 metres of Pay zone looks potentially huge and the share price is reflecting that … up another 23% today to close on its high of 34 cents

Flow Rates will be interesting.


----------



## JTLP (20 July 2018)

barney said:


> Pity @Agentm is not still around. He'd give us all the ins and outs of this.
> 
> 80 metres of Pay zone looks potentially huge and the share price is reflecting that … up another 23% today to close on its high of 34 cents
> 
> Flow Rates will be interesting.




I held this for so long and ditched awhile ago when they got Phoenix underway. Welp - should have stuck by them.


----------



## greggles (25 July 2018)

Wow. What a run. I had no idea CVN would rise so far so fast. No real signs of slowing down yet. It will be interesting to see where it finally settles.

A great result for those holding.


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## BlindSquirrel (25 July 2018)

I lassoed this rocket around 26c. I'm currently enjoying the ride. When something changes I hope to be quick enough to jump off!


----------



## tech/a (25 July 2018)

BlindSquirrel said:


> I lassoed this rocket around 26c. I'm currently enjoying the ride. When something changes I hope to be quick enough to jump off!





This is likely around now.


----------



## HelloU (25 July 2018)

tech/a said:


> This is likely around now.



hour and a half of profit taking slide and it just stopped....nerves of steel those DT peeps


----------



## tech/a (25 July 2018)




----------



## HelloU (25 July 2018)

HelloU said:


> hour and a half of profit taking slide and it just stopped....nerves of steel those DT peeps



until 2:30....then it was every person for themselves.


----------



## tech/a (27 July 2018)




----------



## barney (27 July 2018)

tech/a said:


> [][]




Tech … MCA Chart accidentally instead of CVN …. Cheers


----------



## tech/a (27 July 2018)

Bloody hell that's what you get for rushing!!
All at home so sorry no chart!

Yesterdays return to form is a test of the high but I note with
some volume so supply is evident.
Don't see new highs here!


----------



## barney (27 July 2018)

tech/a said:


> Bloody hell that's what you get for rushing!!
> All at home so sorry no chart!
> 
> Yesterdays return to form is a test of the high but I note with
> ...



All good.  Joe will be able to delete it if you get time later to post the other one later.


----------



## BlindSquirrel (31 July 2018)

I'm still in on CVN. Another positive announcement. SP opened higher but returning to yesterday's territory again. Double Down?


----------



## barney (3 August 2018)

BlindSquirrel said:


> I'm still in on CVN. Another positive announcement. SP opened higher but returning to yesterday's territory again. Double Down?




CVN is still behaving … A move above 50 cents would be very positive. A close below 44 cents potentially negative.


----------



## BlindSquirrel (6 August 2018)

And a trading halt at on open @ 48.5c. Here's hoping for good news! We'll find out in 2 days.


----------



## greggles (8 August 2018)

BlindSquirrel said:


> And a trading halt at on open @ 48.5c. Here's hoping for good news! We'll find out in 2 days.



Good news for CVN holders. Additional oil discoveries in the Crespin and Milne Members of the Dorado-1 well.


> Light oil has been recovered from the Crespin Member containing a gross hydrocarbon package of 50 metres and a net oil pay thickness of 22 metres. The quality of the reservoir encountered was better than pre-drill estimates with average porosities of 14 per cent.
> 
> Light oil was also recovered from the Milne Member containing a gross hydrocarbon package of 30 metres and a net pay thickness of 18 metres. The average porosity of 13 per cent was also better than the pre-drill estimates.
> 
> Pressure data has confirmed that the Dorado structure contains multiple oil columns in the Caley, Crespin and Milne Members  and a gas and condensate column in the Baxter Member, aggregating to a total net hydrocarbon pay of 132 metres. The Caley, Baxter and Milne sands did not encounter any water, whereas the lower section of the Crespin sand contains an interpreted water contact.




Not unexpectedly, the share price jumped on the news and is currently up 27.32% to 61.8c. Huge volume of around 85 million shares.


----------



## BlindSquirrel (8 August 2018)

Updated Euroz research note, upgrading from spec buy to buy and a target of $1/share (FWIW)

*Oil Discovery at Dorado-1Investment Case*Dorado is a material oil discovery and one of the largest ever in Australian waters. Moreover, the Oil Water Contact (“OWC”) has not been encountered in the uppermost Caley lowermost Milne reservoirs and had drilled through an additional 40m net oil pay. What we like is that oil discoveries in shallow water and benign jurisdictions have relatively low barriers to commercialisation. Recovering oil prices are stimulating permitting and M&A activity in the E&P industry: this result will clearly shine a corporate spotlight on CVN. The WPL transaction with Finder Exploration is a good example and we believe similar moves are afoot particularly focused on the Dampier Sub-Basin and emerging Triassic play that CVN and Quadrant have identified at the Phoenix Hub. We upgrade to a Buy recommendation, with an increased Valuation of $0.84, and a $1/sh Price Target believing that CVN has made a commercial oil discovery in the NWS, will likely define a second gas condensate development with success at Phoenix South-3 and can also take the Buffalo oil project through to commercialisation.*Key Points*

Wireline has confirmed an additional oil discovery within the Secondary Crespin and Milne Sandstone reservoirs at the Dorado-1 location;
Results have confirmed:


Net oil pay of 40m;
Highly porous (Crespin 14%/ Milne 13% avg.) reservoir;
Resistivity supportive of excellent permeability;
Total hydrocarbon net pay now 132 metres in the Dorado-1 well.


The secondary targets of Crespin and Milne is mapped to contain P50 gross mean volumes of 125mmbboe (CVN – 20%), comprising 67mbbls condensate and 1386Bcf gas;
The Caley, Baxter and Milne sands did not encounter any water, whereas the lower section of the Crespin sand contains an interpreted water contact.
We note preliminary rock characteristics have exceeded pre-drill expectations, placing an upside bias to Dorado volumetrics;
Volumetric estimates will take circa 4 weeks to compile after the completion of the well following this announcement;
We upgrade our Recommendation to a Buy (prev. Spec Buy), with a Price Target and Valuation of $1.00/sh (prev. $0.50) and $0.84/sh (prev.$0.44) respectively.
We look to the nearest peer in FAR as a relevant comparison, noting that the market ascribes A$9/bbl for its net (post Govt carry) 2C discovered 70mmbbls contingent resource;
What we like about an oil discovery as the commercialisation pathway is much simpler. We look to recent adjacent fields in Wanaea-Cossack, Mutineer-Exeter and Legendre as yardsticks:


Wanaea-Cossack – FID taken on 60mmbbls 2P gross;
Mutineer-Exeter – FID taken on 61mmbbls 2P gross;
Legendre – FID taken on 40mmbbls 2P gross;


Notably, all took less than 5yrs from appraisal to first oil.
| Euroz Securities declares that it has acted as underwriter to and/or arranged an equity issue in and/or provided corporate advice to Carnarvon Petroleum Ltd during the last year. Euroz Securities has received a fee for these services.


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## barney (8 August 2018)

130 + metres of hydrocarbon pay …. it looks big.


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## Miner (8 August 2018)

JTLP said:


> I held this for so long and ditched awhile ago when they got Phoenix underway. Welp - should have stuck by them.



Barney
Does anyone know where Agentm is now ?
He used to be a strong poster of many threads including SBR and some oil shares.  Do not see his posting for a few years. same with Hangseng - a great supporter of PEN.
By the way, I am not complaining or bragging  about CVN. It is the only one on my portfolio has given me 375%  return in less than one year. I have bought it a few years ago and sold it. Sold off CVN once it doubled the investment as I was nervous but all of my CVN is at no cost.
 I stuffed up on AGO, GID, IRL  and few others - those investments are peppercorn value.


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## barney (8 August 2018)

Miner said:


> Barney
> Does anyone know where Agentm is now ?
> He used to be a strong poster of many threads including SBR and some oil shares.  Do not see his posting for a few years. same with Hangseng - a great supporter of PEN.
> By the way, I am not complaining or bragging  about CVN. It is the only one on my portfolio has given me 375%  return in less than one year. I have bought it a few years ago and sold it. Sold off CVN once it doubled the investment as I was nervous but all of my CVN is at no cost.
> I stuffed up on AGO, GID, IRL  and few others - those investments are peppercorn value.




Pleased you've had a good win on CVN @Miner ….. We all need the odd CVN to keep the trading account in the green

No idea regards Agentm … I wonder whether @Joe Blow  could try to track him down because his Oiler knowledge was spectacular.   I think Hangseng may have copped a bit of flack over PEN when it hit the fan after Fukushima but that was out of everyone's control …. I suspect he did ok out of PEN but not as well as he could have …..  Lots of good posters go MIA unfortunately.


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## Miner (8 August 2018)

Miner said:


> Barney
> Does anyone know where Agentm is now ?
> He used to be a strong poster of many threads including SBR and some oil shares.  Do not see his posting for a few years. same with Hangseng - a great supporter of PEN.
> By the way, I am not complaining or bragging  about CVN. It is the only one on my portfolio has given me 375%  return in less than one year. I have bought it a few years ago and sold it. Sold off CVN once it doubled the investment as I was nervous but all of my CVN is at no cost.
> I stuffed up on AGO, GID, IRL  and few others - those investments are peppercorn value.



Correction - I sold off only 33% of my holding after the first trading halt was cleared to have zero cost of the balance 2/3rd investment. Will watch the market before selling off. But capital gains will take half of the profit.


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## Miner (8 August 2018)

barney said:


> Pleased you've had a good win on CVN @Miner ….. We all need the odd CVN to keep the trading account in the green
> 
> No idea regards Agentm … I wonder whether @Joe Blow  could try to track him down because his Oiler knowledge was spectacular.   I think Hangseng may have copped a bit of flack over PEN when it hit the fan after Fukushima but that was out of everyone's control …. I suspect he did ok out of PEN but not as well as he could have …..  Lots of good posters go MIA unfortunately.




thanks Barney. I am sure Joe will track down Agentm. 
Regarding PEN - yes unfortunate. Hangseng put lots on that. Probably became one of the top 20 holders then. But uranium shares now returning back with clean energy. WHich does mean bad days for oilers.


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## Joe Blow (9 August 2018)

barney said:


> No idea regards Agentm … I wonder whether @Joe Blow  could try to track him down because his Oiler knowledge was spectacular.




Unfortunately, Agentm hasn't logged into his account since 2015. I'm not sure why this is the case or whether he will return to ASF in the future. We will just have to consider him MIA for the moment and hope he comes back at some stage.


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## HelloU (9 August 2018)

Miner said:


> thanks Barney. I am sure Joe will track down Agentm.
> Regarding PEN - yes unfortunate. Hangseng put lots on that. Probably became one of the top 20 holders then. But uranium shares now returning back with clean energy. WHich does mean bad days for oilers.



OT
(....competitors boarding up, world demand increasing, production technique maybe change, US senate wanting US sourced...) watching and reading......


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## UMike (10 August 2018)

Still in but have no clues how this will ride.

Been a long ride though.


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## UMike (13 August 2018)

Back to being a roller coaster.


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## barney (13 August 2018)

UMike said:


> Back to being a roller coaster.




Oilers are tough ….. Large pay zone but the Wireline logs were not as expected.  Still looks promising but a long wait for confirmation.


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## BlindSquirrel (20 September 2018)

It seems to have stabilised around the 35c mark and gradually building. Surely this is undervalued!


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## peter2 (21 January 2019)

I believe they found a bit of oil recently. 

The chart below is part of a research project and should not be considered a recommendation to buy this stock. If you want to read more about the project log in to read the P2 Weekly Portfolio thread. 

Setup: High volume bullish bar,  off support   Grade A as the initial risk is wide
Buy limit: 0.37, iSL 0.31, initial target 0.60


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## Miner (12 February 2019)

CVN has issued equity raise with a trading halt

https://www.asx.com.au/asxpdf/20190212/pdf/442k2c7xl48cfm.pdf


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## BlindSquirrel (12 February 2019)

to instos and sophs only...


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## BlindSquirrel (19 March 2019)

Per tipping contest rules - This one is either going to moon or stagnate due to the drilling program that has just started.
JIMHO


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## peter2 (19 March 2019)

The recent capital raise was for 151Mill shares at 0.33. The prior closing price was 0.37 and I would have expected to see the price fall approx 10% after the event. However I notice that it didn't and has risen higher since then. IMO that's very bullish. They think they've got a lot of oil down there but they don't know how big.


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## Joules MM1 (19 March 2019)

@Joe Blow @Miner

pretty sure the same Agentm is over at the site with the name we dont say outloud .....

agentm 23191 
	

		
			
		

		
	




+ smoke signals sent.......


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## Trav. (20 April 2019)

CVN closed @ $0.435 and appears to be trending sideways while they wait for the drill rig to be mobilised to site.

Drilling due next month as per article below.  


_https://www.pipeliner.com.au/2019/04/17/dorado-drilling-set-for-may/
_
*Dorado drilling set for May*
_17 April 2019

Joint Venture (JV) partners Santos and Carnarvon Petroleum will commence a three well drilling program at the Phoenix Project next month.

Starting with the Dorado-2 appraisal well, the JV’s 2019 drill campaign will also include the Roc South-1 exploration well, situated 13 km from Dorado, and the Dorado-3 appraisal well.

One of the most closely watched Australian oil prospects in recent times and located on Western Australia’s northwest shelf, Dorado-1 made headlines last year after the oil discovered in the area was described as “staggering”.

In the company’s quarterly report, Carnarvon said the Noble Tom Prosser drill rig is currently in the nearby Carnarvon basin and will move to the Dorado location shortly.

Carnarvon said the upcoming drill campaign will be instrumental in achieving a final investment decision on the Phoenix Project, which is aimed for the end of the next calendar year.

Carnarvon possesses a 20 per cent interest in the project, while operator Santos holds the remaining 80 per cent after its 2018 purchase of Quadrant Energy._​


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## Miner (29 April 2019)

CVN is inching towards its goal.
Director buying https://www.asx.com.au/asxpdf/20190416/pdf/444btrdf3tvyrq.pdf on 16 April
Investor presentation https://www.asx.com.au/asxpdf/20190418/pdf/444dxnvd89mpzr.pdf 18 April
Drill moved news published today 29 April https://www.asx.com.au/asxpdf/20190429/pdf/444lpw0ndfj7ns.pdf - this is a most wanted step with all hopefuls to watch for the outcome. It will also affect STO holders due to Quadrant holding .
A holder - bought and sold and if it clicks will hold for longer .
If I am allowed to speculate here without getting whip from @Joe Blow - could there be a merger or acquisition of CVN by STO in medium term ?
Being holder for both of them, it is my early morning day dream 
Also posted on STO


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## Trav. (4 May 2019)

Dorado-2 drilling commenced on the 3rd and SP down 3.3% (closed @ $0.435)


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## Trav. (25 May 2019)

June Stock Tip

Drilling update released on the 21st May with no issues mentioned
_



_

Price is trending sideways as we are all waiting on news from the Dorado-2 appraisal well.
_



_


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## BlindSquirrel (27 May 2019)




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## Miner (27 May 2019)

BlindSquirrel said:


>



@BlindSquirrel - I am wondering, if  you meant to publish the video  on BRU thread and instead published on CVN to be safe


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## BlindSquirrel (29 May 2019)

sneaky little 23% increase today after announcement:


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## Trav. (29 May 2019)

Drilling update released comparing initial results to Dorado-1 which I think got the masses excited. Drilling incomplete and analysis of core samples yet to begin so hopefully run continues when final details are releases. Happy to hold until then.

https://www.carnarvon.com.au/wp-content/uploads/2019/05/Doradoupdate2905.pdf


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## Miner (29 May 2019)

BlindSquirrel said:


> sneaky little 23% increase today after announcement:



Hmm. Reading your posting of Monday and gather it was not for BRU for sure. But on Monday how could you sniff?  May oil companies forget about all those scanners and hire you instead. LOL 
Nonetheless, good work mate


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## BlindSquirrel (30 May 2019)

Miner said:


> But on Monday how could you sniff?  May oil companies forget about all those scanners and hire you instead. LOL
> Nonetheless, good work mate




I've been following them closely. The quote that really gets me hot and bothered was from Fred Wehr from Quadrant at the time "the low case is solidly commercial, the mid-case is awesome and the upside is staggering."
I'm not trying to time it, but the drill bit has been doing its thing for a month or two now so there will be more announcements to come - I trust that they will say the right things.


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## Miner (6 June 2019)

BlindSquirrel said:


> I've been following them closely. The quote that really gets me hot and bothered was from Fred Wehr from Quadrant at the time "the low case is solidly commercial, the mid-case is awesome and the upside is staggering."
> I'm not trying to time it, but the drill bit has been doing its thing for a month or two now so there will be more announcements to come - I trust that they will say the right things.



Happy days are returning for CVN and STO holders hopefully now on wards
https://www.asx.com.au/asxpdf/20190606/pdf/445ndkpn8yfbpd.pdf
https://www.asx.com.au/asxpdf/20190606/pdf/445nd80w9wy5nz.pdf


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## Miner (6 June 2019)

Miner said:


> Happy days are returning for CVN and STO holders hopefully now on wards
> https://www.asx.com.au/asxpdf/20190606/pdf/445ndkpn8yfbpd.pdf
> https://www.asx.com.au/asxpdf/20190606/pdf/445nd80w9wy5nz.pdf



Good start 11%. Hope it sustains.


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## Trav. (6 June 2019)

52wk high is $0.695 so if we break that today / tomorrow then it will be very very interesting.


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## Ann (6 June 2019)

*Carnarvon Petroleum confirms major resource at Dorado oil field*

_Wireline logging by Carnarvon Petroleum (ASX: CVN) at the Dorado-2 joint venture appraisal well on the North West Shelf of Western Australia has confirmed pre-drill expectations of a major oil and gas resource at multiple reservoir levels.


Commencing in May, the well was drilled down-dip approximately 2km from the Dorado-1 discovery in the offshore Bedout Basin and encountered 85m of net reservoir in the primary Caley formation.


An expected oil-water contact was intersected at 4,003m depth, with 40m of net oil pay encountered in Caley and an additional 11m encountered in the Upper Caley sands.


Preliminary well-site analysis indicates the oil bearing potential of the upper zone and is subject to further analysis to confirm the hydrocarbon phase. More..._


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## Miner (6 June 2019)

BlindSquirrel said:


> I've been following them closely. The quote that really gets me hot and bothered was from Fred Wehr from Quadrant at the time "the low case is solidly commercial, the mid-case is awesome and the upside is staggering."
> I'm not trying to time it, but the drill bit has been doing its thing for a month or two now so there will be more announcements to come - I trust that they will say the right things.



Mate
I was hoping to hear from you as well with,  lots of oil and gas on the Dorado  floor to sniff


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## Trav. (18 June 2019)

Here we ago again. Hopefully CVN continues to find the good stuff


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## Trav. (24 June 2019)

Another update released today, all going well at Roc South-1


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## Miner (4 July 2019)

Good morning all
Hopefully the trading halt to be released with a better than expected result 
https://www.asx.com.au/asxpdf/20190704/pdf/446cpl8nhpcf60.pdf
@Ann , @Trav. , @BlindSquirrel are we going to cook with gas or run the car without petrol ?
Keeping fingers crossed.


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## Trav. (4 July 2019)

@Miner this is a bit unexpected hence leaving me a little concerned as they gave an update on the 2/7 for the drilling of Roc South-1 with the following as a plan and I am surprised that they have achieved this in such a short time.

_Forward Plan 
Set and cement the 13-3/8” casing and drill ahead in 8-1/2” hole to planned section depth of approximately 4,500 metres MD. The Caley and Baxter Members are anticipated to be encountered in the 8-1/2” hole section. Wireline logs will be run over the Caley and Baxter Members before setting a 7” liner and drilling ahead to the deeper objectives. _


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## Miner (4 July 2019)

Trav. said:


> @Miner this is a bit unexpected hence leaving me a little concerned as they gave an update on the 2/7 for the drilling of Roc South-1 with the following as a plan and I am surprised that they have achieved this in such a short time.
> 
> _Forward Plan
> Set and cement the 13-3/8” casing and drill ahead in 8-1/2” hole to planned section depth of approximately 4,500 metres MD. The Caley and Baxter Members are anticipated to be encountered in the 8-1/2” hole section. Wireline logs will be run over the Caley and Baxter Members before setting a 7” liner and drilling ahead to the deeper objectives. _



@Trav. 
I agree. But learning from one of the stalwarts like @kennas  I am trying to see silver streak on a dark cloud. Hence my positive feel until the halt is out


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## barney (4 July 2019)

Trav. said:


> @Miner* I am surprised that they have achieved this in such a short time*.




I just had a read of their announcements and was about to say the same thing Trav.

Normally early "Results" would have a positive slant, but the dip in the SP on 2nd July and yesterday is a bit concerning.  Hope its good news for you guys


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## BlindSquirrel (4 July 2019)

I'm optimistic. They've already found oil in the area and if it was a duster then they would be finishing the drill before releasing a result.

Happy to eat crow, but:


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## BlindSquirrel (4 July 2019)




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## Garpal Gumnut (4 July 2019)

CVN is one of the stocks I have "traded" in my SMSF.

It is best to buy it below 10c.

It is best to sell it above 60c.

I've fiddled about in between.

It's done it's 60c again so from a charting perspective if I held it now I would sell.

In the past declarations of drilling intentions or results have been unhelpful for me.

Just my opinion.

A 10 year chart.






gg


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## Ferret (4 July 2019)

I'm wondering if they might have had a takeover approach from Santos.


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## Garpal Gumnut (4 July 2019)

Ferret said:


> I'm wondering if they might have had a takeover approach from Santos.



Why?

gg


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## Miner (4 July 2019)

Ferret said:


> I'm wondering if they might have had a takeover approach from Santos.



@Ferret 
Mate you would provide a big smile to all CVN holders with this wish


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## Ferret (4 July 2019)

Garpal Gumnut said:


> Why?
> 
> gg



Santos own I think 80% of the block where Dorado and ROC south are. They might want the lot.


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## Trav. (5 July 2019)

Ferret said:


> Santos own I think 80% of the block where Dorado and ROC south are. They might want the lot.



unlikely as announcement states Roc South-1 well results


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## Miner (5 July 2019)

Trav. said:


> unlikely as announcement states Roc South-1 well results
> 
> View attachment 95926



Thanks Trav


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## Miner (8 July 2019)

Trav. said:


> unlikely as announcement states Roc South-1 well results
> 
> View attachment 95926



Here U Go CVN
https://www.asx.com.au/asxpdf/20190708/pdf/446g7lsrp5kgb7.pdf
Just read the highlighted sentences and then read the whole Iliad - Market will react sharply for sure


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## Trav. (8 July 2019)

Buying oppotunity ? 

Not good but usual sell off. CVN still have Dorado, and they have not abandoned Roc South-1 yet as they mention that they are going deeper by anouther 600mtrs


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## BlindSquirrel (8 July 2019)

aww nuts, my holding is back to being just under a 2 bagger.


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## Garpal Gumnut (8 July 2019)

Trav. said:


> Buying oppotunity ?
> 
> Not good but usual sell off. CVN still have Dorado, and they have not abandoned Roc South-1 yet as they mention that they are going deeper by anouther 600mtrs




Condolences @Trav. 

Maybe next time mate. 

I cannot see STO making a bid in this situation.

gg


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## Miner (8 July 2019)

Garpal Gumnut said:


> Condolences @Trav.
> 
> Maybe next time mate.
> 
> ...



Thanks @Garpal Gumnut 
Your salt  was really good. It did apply to my wound too . 
Enjoy in a short term though


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## Garpal Gumnut (8 July 2019)

Miner said:


> Thanks @Garpal Gumnut
> Your salt  was really good. It did apply to my wound too .
> Enjoy in a short term though




Condolences mate.

I'm a believer in CVN.

See how many times I've picked it in the comp over the years.

Losing a few quid on this is no shame. 

gg


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## Trav. (8 July 2019)

Garpal Gumnut said:


> Condolences @Trav.



 Cheers gg, not all bad as I am basically break even again. Should start to rise again next week once people cut their losses after being trapped in over the weekend with the trading halt.

I should take my profits quicker, so another lesson learnt 

Trav


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## Miner (8 July 2019)

Garpal Gumnut said:


> Condolences mate.
> 
> I'm a believer in CVN.
> 
> ...



All good mate. It is part of a game when we rely on exploration.


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## Garpal Gumnut (8 July 2019)

I'm a bit , more than a bit like you two, @Miner and @trav

Eldorado is here in Australia. 

CVN have done the hard yards.

I may join you on the next effort. 

Stay happy and well. 

gg


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## barney (8 July 2019)

Trav. said:


> Cheers gg, not all bad as I am basically break even again. Should start to rise again next week once people cut their losses after being trapped in over the weekend with the trading halt.
> *I should take my profits quicker, so another lesson learnt*




Its always a balancing act taking profits on the up and cutting them loose on the downs. I went out in sympathy with you guys today … CVN down 21.55% for you unfortunate chaps ….. My major "retirement" holding PNR which should be performing brilliantly with the POG at the moment also dropped 23.26%, so I'm back on baked beans for a few months … Spec stocks are never straight forward.


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## Trav. (8 July 2019)

@barney mate just unfortunately that this has been a theme in the last couple of weeks for me, having paper profits one day then gone the next. With the market being so positve as well just add's to the frustration...PNR chart looks very sick as well today  at least we can comfort each other on this day of misery


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## barney (8 July 2019)

Trav. said:


> @barney mate just unfortunately that this has been a theme in the last couple of weeks for me, having paper profits one day then gone the next. With the market being so positve as well just add's to the frustration...PNR chart looks very sick as well today  at least we can comfort each other on this day of misery




Yeah its frustrating Trav …… I still expect PNR to recover in time and to be honest I think CVN will also do ok down the track …. but the short term gyrations can certainly test your mettle on these roller coasters …. Cheers.


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## peter2 (8 July 2019)

I'll confess that I sold CVN soon after the results of Dorado-2 were released. These results seemed to have a high probability for success and was worth waiting for. I was not interested in Roc South-1 results because they had a much lower probability of success. I am unaware that the geology of Roc South is connected to Dorado other then their close location. I may be wrong, but it doesn't really matter.

CVN only owns 20% of the resource. Even though the Dorado resource is HUGE, 20% is not such a huge fraction. The resource will require massive capital for development and while CVN does have lots of cash they'll probably need more once a developmental plan is created. STO may decide to buyout CVN's share, who knows.


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## peter2 (8 July 2019)

It appears that the Roc South 1 drilling will continue lower to investigate lower levels (Crespin, Milne). These levels held condensate rich gas in the Dorado discovery. The drilling is investigating if these two fields are linked. So far, no. 

Once this drill is completed the rig is going back to Dorado to drill Dorado 3. These drill results will be interesting. 

btw: STO price didn't fall at all with the results from Roc South1. They didn't rise any with the Dorado news either. CVN is definitely the minnow here.


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## Miner (8 July 2019)

Dear @peter2 , @barney , @Garpal Gumnut 
I am contemplating an overwhelmed feeling on the solidarity expressed by you trio to myself and @Trav. 
A big thank you indeed.
So that you do not get utterly worried, like @Trav. said he was on breakeven, I was still on the plus side of original invested price as per closing price of today. So it is all good. I have made paper losses so long, not sold out on panic. CVN is still of good value and the market reacted as it would have given the opportunity to re-enter. It is not a dud share for sure. Speculative investment has a high risk. So it is similar or probably better than FAR. 
What is nice to see the fraternity of ASF forum people and it is a very rewarding feeling for me - money comes and goes but good feelings are eternal. Sorry for becoming philosophical


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## Miner (10 July 2019)

Good morning all
CVN published two reports this morning.
Cash Flow and Quarterly report
https://www.asx.com.au/asxpdf/20190710/pdf/446hzz5c5x95y3.pdf
https://www.asx.com.au/asxpdf/20190710/pdf/446j0166szph2t.pdf
Many a times I wonder to understand transparencies or more accurately alignment between MD /CEO reports published for the share holders and employees .
The reports for shareholders are always encouraging, rosy, and pleasing for the CEO/MD. So essentially shareholders kept invested and the CEO gets his or her bonus on upper range.
The same person, when publishes performance report to the employees, put a pessimistic assessment for the previous year narrating why the employees and contractors (where they are eligible) would not get full quota of bonus due to several milestones not met.
Double standards for sure


----------



## peter2 (10 July 2019)

Thanks for the update. I was unaware of today's reports as I bought a parcel with a very tight iSL. I think the recent 20% drop was a tad oversold and if others agree, price may drift higher as we await further drilling news. I'm trading that price will get back to 0.55 which was the average price after the Dorado-2 news. I've got a R:R of approx 1.5.


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## barney (10 July 2019)

peter2 said:


> I think the recent 20% drop was a tad oversold.




Agree  …… there were a lot of "vultures" circling on that spike low picking up the discarded shares cheap.  
Relatively low Volume compared to a couple of days ago but still close to $4 million traded today at this stage.  Looks OK


----------



## rnr (10 July 2019)

Hi @tech/a,
Just wondering if the the recent news/report coupled with the subsequent price action resembles a "shake-out" by any chance?
Cheers,
Rob


----------



## tech/a (11 July 2019)

Hi Rob

My take.


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## barney (11 July 2019)

Musings:-

The 1 minute chart on the 8th July indicates participants in the sell off were quickly swallowed by bigger fish.

5 minute chart of last few days seems to be confirming that at this stage … ie. Price above the 48 cent level.


----------



## tech/a (11 July 2019)

Find it hard to analyse lower timeframe charts that are so thin
How’s an hourly pan out?


----------



## rnr (11 July 2019)

Hi @tech/a,

Thanks for your response.
In hindsight, my question to you was poorly worded and should go more along the line as follows:-
Given the last three bars (as circled on my chart), would you regard the price/volume action as a precursor to a potential shake-out in VSA terms.

Cheers,
Rob


----------



## tech/a (11 July 2019)

Rob could be
Could also be a lot of other things.


----------



## rnr (11 July 2019)

tech/a said:


> Rob could be
> Could also be a lot of other things.




Thanks tech/a.


----------



## barney (11 July 2019)

tech/a said:


> Find it hard to analyse lower timeframe charts that are so thin How’s an hourly pan out?




Actually the hourly is not too much different than the minute Tech.   The majority of the Volume was in the first hour, but the majority of the first hour was in the first 2-3 minutes.

The 45-47 cent level seems the acceptable range …. under 45 not good … above 48 positive


----------



## Miner (18 July 2019)

Good morning all
CVN published this
https://www.asx.com.au/asxpdf/20190718/pdf/446pw6jnphkgg9.pdf
Interestingly STO has published more interesting and encouraging on Dorado Well and their expectation
https://www.asx.com.au/asxpdf/20190718/pdf/446psnm0dghmvz.pdf
with STO's +$300 M cash flow, can I be ambitiously (or ridiculously) speculative that STO may have a take over of CVN ? My dream thoughts and could be less probable than me wining $110 M lotto today 
I hold both CVN and STO so either way I would be happy with status quo and living in dream


----------



## barney (18 July 2019)

Miner said:


> can I be ambitiously (or ridiculously) speculative that STO may have a take over of CVN ?




That would be a nice surprise for you holders Miner

Latest price action so far today looks more positive. 

Recent days down moves have generated some Volume … If it proves to be distressed sellers/smart buyers accumulating, todays low volume reversal might grow some legs .. like to see it get above that 45 cent resistance area


----------



## Trav. (24 July 2019)

Trading halt today, SP makes sense now


----------



## Miner (24 July 2019)

Trav. said:


> Trading halt today, SP makes sense now
> 
> View attachment 96343
> 
> ...



Hope the SPP price and ex right share price will make sense.


----------



## peter2 (24 July 2019)

WTH: They raised $50mill in Feb19 to fund appraisal and to commercialise the Dorado discovery.

Now they want to raise another $79 mill to fund ongoing appraisal activities of the Dorado discovery and the initial stages of commercialisation.  

Where did the first $50mill go?


----------



## peter2 (24 July 2019)

Maybe the reason for price not bouncing off the lows with such a huge newly discovered resource was that better informed people knew there would be another capital raising so soon.


----------



## barney (24 July 2019)

peter2 said:


> Maybe the reason for price not bouncing off the lows with such a huge newly discovered resource was that better informed people knew there would be another capital raising so soon.




Possibly … and if so … pretty annoying for the average punter


----------



## Miner (24 July 2019)

peter2 said:


> WTH: They raised $50mill in Feb19 to fund appraisal and to commercialise the Dorado discovery.
> 
> Now they want to raise another $79 mill to fund ongoing appraisal activities of the Dorado discovery and the initial stages of commercialisation.
> 
> Where did the first $50mill go?



Good point @peter2 . I was just now reading their presentation. One thing I liked about zero debt.
They however suspected general investors may not like the share price. So $5 M has deliberately been kept open. If it does not get fill up then would be offered to Insto I suppose
ONe more thing, with the volume of shares already in the market, $15K per share holder would not be feasible for $5M allotment. That also gives them to enjoy some excess floating cash until the allotment is over. I liked CVN and off late - the trend is not giving me warm and fuzzy feel. I am just positive on the holding but once market opens on Thursday, I doubt my positiveness will upbeat


----------



## Miner (24 July 2019)

peter2 said:


> Maybe the reason for price not bouncing off the lows with such a huge newly discovered resource was that better informed people knew there would be another capital raising so soon.



CR for FEED.
Then another CR for construction and procurement activities . Looks like SBM story unless a discovery comes out on the way.


----------



## barney (25 July 2019)

Miner said:


> - the trend is not giving me warm and fuzzy feel.




CR's can be frustrating at times but keeping my positive hat on for your sake Miner …..

Last time they raised at 33 cents …. and the SP immediately rose substantially.

If we took the May price spike off the chart and they said they were raising at 39 cents, it would look like a reasonable arrangement … 6 cents higher than last raise and well supported.

The May price spike and subsequent selloff looks a little fabricated in hindsight so that is an obvious negative, however …

The big Honchos supporting the current 39 cent raise will obviously want to see the SP moving higher.   If it behaves like it did last raise it should be back at 50 cents in no time … I hope that is the case.

Now they have the mid term cash sorted they can get on with drilling up bucket loads of oil


----------



## Miner (25 July 2019)

barney said:


> CR's can be frustrating at times but keeping my positive hat on for your sake Miner …..
> 
> Last time they raised at 33 cents …. and the SP immediately rose substantially.
> 
> ...



@barney  the positive Singer.
Thks. Cvn getting into 39 cents after it announced insto acceptance of $79 m.
It's a good stock. I am optimistic


----------



## barney (25 July 2019)

Miner said:


> @barney  the positive Singer.
> Thks. Cvn getting into 39 cents after it announced insto acceptance of $79 m.
> It's a good stock. I am optimistic




Yeah it could take a little while for the market to digest and regurgitate all the pros and cons of such a large cap raise … but on the positive side, they have no trouble getting wealthy people to give them lots of cash


----------



## Miner (12 August 2019)

Drilling result published toda
https://www.asx.com.au/asxpdf/20190812/pdf/447dhbz0zycnph.pdfy
I read it and could not understand why CVN is pleased to say 'no hydrocarbon would be seen from this drilling statement'. Would the market be pleased too ?? We would know when the trading commences I suppose.


----------



## BlindSquirrel (12 August 2019)

Drill UPDATE - not a result. 
They have further to go before they expect hydrocarbons.
Interestingly, the SP is now below the value that the purchase plan advised. So you can buy at a further discount!


----------



## Miner (2 September 2019)

BlindSquirrel said:


> Drill UPDATE - not a result.
> They have further to go before they expect hydrocarbons.
> Interestingly, the SP is now below the value that the purchase plan advised. So you can buy at a further discount!



I wished to have paid more attention to your posting 
https://www.asx.com.au/asxpdf/20190902/pdf/4484mdhypj304l.pdf


----------



## BlindSquirrel (2 September 2019)

The current trading halt is regarding the Dorado 3 well results. I've got everything crossed for a continuation of good news from Dorado (phoenix south ones haven't been too flash but Dorado's been good so far - NO JINX!)


----------



## Miner (4 September 2019)

The trading halt will be removed today in next few minutes as the announcement is very positive


----------



## BlindSquirrel (4 September 2019)

Flow testing still to come!


----------



## Trav. (19 September 2019)

Some good news today for CVN shareholders.

https://www.asx.com.au/asx/statistics/displayAnnouncement.do?display=pdf&idsId=


----------



## Miner (19 September 2019)

Trav. said:


> Some good news today for CVN shareholders.
> 
> https://www.asx.com.au/asx/statistics/displayAnnouncement.do?display=pdf&idsId=
> 
> View attachment 97499



I hope market to respond it as a great news.
Specially trading at a price Lowe than recent CR price.


----------



## barney (19 September 2019)

Miner said:


> I hope market to respond it as a great news.
> Specially trading at a price Lowe than recent CR price.



15,000+ boe per day ….. Its gushing money


----------



## BlindSquirrel (19 September 2019)




----------



## martaart077 (23 September 2019)

Santos announcement today regarding Baxter flow test seemed  really positive.... Better than expected flow test result.
Yet CVN share price with their 20%ownership ended in the red today.
Was reading that shorters are at play but is that what is really going on with this share?


----------



## Trav. (24 September 2019)

@martaart077  I believe that the STO announcement was the same as CVN's on the 19/9 so the price was already factored in.

this link shows shorts https://www.shortman.com.au/stock?q=cvn which has a 4 day lag. 

But I do not know the driver (capping of price etc) for this type of trading when we are expecting more positive announcements, so I suppose it is just the big boys manipulating the market


----------



## barney (24 September 2019)

martaart077 said:


> Was reading that shorters are at play but is that what is really going on with this share?




Shorters listed on ASX as of last Friday looks fairly innocuous (0.49%)

A lot of shares traded at the close last Friday at 41.5 cents so its anyone's guess which way it will go in the short term but 40 cents needs to hold as support.






ps posted at the same time Trav …..    There is some variation at 2.65% so maybe the Volume on Friday was short covering?


----------



## martaart077 (24 September 2019)

Santos report to me seemed to contain some really positive language regarding the potential of this field.... From the report. 
Santos  Managing Director  and  Chief  Executive Officer  Kevin Gallagher  said:  “The  flow  rate in the Baxter  confirms  our  interpretation of  a  high quality  reservoir  with excellent  productivity and condensate-rich  gas  with  low  levels  of  impurities.”   “This  result  further  increases  our  confidence  in  our  ability  to commercialise the  significant condensate  resources  in the  Dorado  field.” “We  look  forward to  the  results  from  the planned  test  of  the Caley  oil  reservoir,  which should close out  the  Dorado  appraisal  program  and allow  us  to work  towards  a  Final  Investment Decision on the  project,  which is  now  one of  the  most  exciting  growth projects across  the Santos  portfolio.” 

Suppose share price also reflects the difference between "potential" and "certainty".


----------



## barney (24 September 2019)

Not really keeping up with this but a quick read says Santos will plug and abandon the Dorado well after assessment as planned …… So the time line to possibly produce from the various reservoirs in the field is basically up to (if and when) Santos decide to continue?? ….. Even though the results look excellent, it keeps CVN kind of in a bind …. The difference in the STO and CVN SP's seems to reflect that.  CVN looks well positioned for the future but nothing happens fast in the Oil business (discounting takeovers)


----------



## BlindSquirrel (7 October 2019)

*anticipation intensifies*


----------



## barney (7 October 2019)

BlindSquirrel said:


> *anticipation intensifies*




No doubt it will be the final results etc re the Caley reservoir (nothing yet from Santos.)  

Hopefully for you chaps holding it will be a big announcement price wise, but given CVN are the minority player, Santos will need to make an announcement stating their intention to financially develop the field before CVN gets to full speed.

Not sure about the relationship between STO and CVN …. but given the current info on the prospectively of the Dorado field (which is huge), CVN would have to be a future takeover proposition?? 

On the flip side, assuming that is the case, Santos will want CVN at the best price they can "organise"

Potentially lots of water to flow under this bridge you'd think. (Thinking out loud, accumulating CVN on any dips assuming the POO remains ok could turn out to be a good punt)


----------



## BlindSquirrel (8 October 2019)

Nice.


----------



## BlindSquirrel (10 October 2019)

and yet, we're back to the same SP as two weeks ago.

I'm expecting a takeover offer at some point. At the risk of needing to reinforce this foil hat, something/someone must be holding the price down for their reasons. Any inklings of how long these shenanigans usually take to play out? 
There's been 4 positive announcements since the end of July when the placement closed and the price has been in the mid-high 30s since then.


----------



## Ferret (12 October 2019)

I thought the positive end to the drilling campaign might have resulted in more of a share price response too. 

I didn't hold CVN but decided to buy in after this latest announcement. No profit yet.

Dorado is looking so good that I, too, think a takeover is a possibility.


----------



## Ferret (28 November 2019)

CVN has been looking a bit sick since I bought in early October. 

I guess it was a mistake buying just after the closing announcement for the Dorado drilling and when the next likely catalyst would be FEED go ahead in first quarter 2020.

I saw a director bought this week.  I'm tempted to average down at 33c, but it's a sick looking chart and that next catalyst is still a way off.


----------



## Trav. (29 November 2019)

Unfortunately I am  in a similar position and should have sold in June but got sucked in by the hype and my greed. Obviously the oil isn't going anywhere but has tied up funds for other trade opportunities. Waiting patiently for the next move.


----------



## Trav. (3 December 2019)

Announcment out today following up Santos's yesterday.

CVN up 3% yesterday which was nice for a change. I suppose until the finance option is sorted or some other option ( eg takeover) then the SP will probabl just drift along ( hopefully not much further down)

https://www.asx.com.au/asxpdf/20191203/pdf/44c78tpdpgy2q7.pdf


----------



## Miner (24 December 2019)

Greetings CVN holders  and watchers for a Merry Christmas and HNY
Could any one    please throw some light on the transaction.
How could employee option enabled to buy such a big volume at 69 cents against current market price.
It is more than million dollars and market was unfazed.
Am I reading it wrongly or what ?

Regards

https://www.asx.com.au/asxpdf/20191125/pdf/44bxs8ngvygpl0.pdf


----------



## peter2 (24 December 2019)

"Issue of ordinary shares to participants in the Company's Employee Share Plan." 
Approved at recent AGM - Resolution 4. 

No money changed hands. The company creates the shares, values them at 120% of current price and gives them away.


----------



## Miner (24 December 2019)

peter2 said:


> "Issue of ordinary shares to participants in the Company's Employee Share Plan."
> Approved at recent AGM - Resolution 4.
> 
> No money changed hands. The company creates the shares, values them at 120% of current price and gives them away.



Freebies at the cost of shareholders investment. Real con game as they would take the benefit of millions at no cost to them.


----------



## BlindSquirrel (6 January 2020)

Miner said:


> Real con game as they would take the benefit of millions at no cost to them.



I would like to think that the bonuses would otherwise have been handed out as cash so employees have foregone that cash bonus in exchange for shares. 
But I'm just spitballing.


----------



## Miner (6 January 2020)

BlindSquirrel said:


> I would like to think that the bonuses would otherwise have been handed out as cash so employees have foregone that cash bonus in exchange for shares.
> But I'm just spitballing.



Looks like you are one of the members of Ex Co


----------



## travwj (30 April 2020)

Here I am for the May stock tipping comp and having a bit of a punt on Carnarvon Petroleum. Taking a look at this due to the low oil price and thinking as we come out of these strange and quiet covid-19 times, there will be more need for oil/petroleum products and the oil price will rise.

Chart attached to make the post look pretty and hoping that CVN can fill the gap and continue rising.
Currently do not hold.


----------



## Garpal Gumnut (30 April 2020)

travwj said:


> Here I am for the May stock tipping comp and having a bit of a punt on Carnarvon Petroleum. Taking a look at this due to the low oil price and thinking as we come out of these strange and quiet covid-19 times, there will be more need for oil/petroleum products and the oil price will rise.
> 
> Chart attached to make the post look pretty and hoping that CVN can fill the gap and continue rising.
> Currently do not hold.
> ...



Good on you. @travwj . CVN is always worth buying in the teens and selling at 30c to 60c. 

It may drop to the low teens where I'd buy or if you are correct finally get taken over and end it's misery.

Oil will make a comeback and we'll head in to the roaring 30's.

gg


----------



## Garpal Gumnut (12 August 2020)

CVN has been trading sideways for a while now. 

It is always worth a punt once it moves. 

gg


----------



## BlindSquirrel (12 August 2020)

Those Bollinger bands are squeezing.


----------



## UMike (31 August 2020)

My September tip.

Dorado development concept definition is now well advanced and any positive news could see a spike in interest. Debt free with cash equivalents of $113,632,000

Been a long time holder. Free carried since it first got to 60c


----------



## Garpal Gumnut (31 August 2020)

UMike said:


> My September tip.
> 
> Dorado development concept definition is now well advanced and any positive news could see a spike in interest. Debt free with cash equivalents of $113,632,000
> 
> Been a long time holder. Free carried since it first got to 60c



Thanks mate, I can take CVN off my watchlist now and follow it on ASF, a possible first place again. It's been trending sideways for so long any move on volume will be indicative.

gg


----------



## Miner (19 September 2020)

UMike said:


> My September tip.
> 
> Dorado development concept definition is now well advanced and any positive news could see a spike in interest. Debt free with cash equivalents of $113,632,000
> 
> Been a long time holder. Free carried since it first got to 60c



@UMike  looks like you are proving @Garpal Gumnut being right - still 10 days enough to make you winner 


			https://www.asx.com.au/asxpdf/20200917/pdf/44mq4h1yw5gljz.pdf
		

My fear is however on the side of thrown dice when I read this paragraph


----------



## Garpal Gumnut (19 September 2020)

Miner said:


> @UMike  looks like you are proving @Garpal Gumnut being right - still 10 days enough to make you winner
> 
> 
> https://www.asx.com.au/asxpdf/20200917/pdf/44mq4h1yw5gljz.pdf
> ...



I saw that para as well, however it is worded it made me pause. Maybe next week.

gg


----------



## Miner (9 October 2020)

https://www.asx.com.au/asxpdf/20201009/pdf/44njjhmyl9f3ln.pdf


----------



## finicky (9 October 2020)

aus_trader said:


> First a couple of stocks, coming off the base: CVN



 on the potential breakout alerts thread

Doubt that I'll act on it but that CVN chart looks like it's going to move - CVN one of a tiny list of oilers that I've considered in recent years. Brings to mind that good video interview on the WHC thread promoting energy stocks at what appears to be near a cyclical low - "if you're not buying oil now you never will", paraphrasing.
Then again my guru @DaveHcontrarian thinks oil initially going higher then crashing again, along with everything else in the 2021 global bust


----------



## frugal.rock (26 November 2020)




----------



## BlindSquirrel (26 November 2020)




----------



## peter2 (27 November 2020)

@Miner  Remember when CVN found a whole lot of oil and price went from 0.15 to 0.65 quickly. Then it went back down to 0.30 and we' wondered if it was ever going to get back to 0.65 again.  Seems like there's new believers. Price has broken over the 0.25 level. the chart does look bullish but it's CVN. 






High volume bullish bar (HVBB) yesterday, few sellers today, can we anticipate another spike up soon?


----------



## Miner (27 November 2020)

peter2 said:


> @Miner  Remember when CVN found a whole lot of oil and price went from 0.15 to 0.65 quickly. Then it went back down to 0.30 and we' wondered if it was ever going to get back to 0.65 again.  Seems like there's new believers. Price has broken over the 0.25 level. the chart does look bullish but it's CVN.
> 
> View attachment 115359
> 
> ...



Pete - if you are right, then one bottle of Bin 389 for you


----------



## frugal.rock (27 November 2020)

finicky said:


> Then again my guru @DaveHcontrarian thinks oil initially going higher then crashing again





peter2 said:


> can we anticipate another spike up soon?



My 
There's a good chance that was the spike.
Oil inventories at capacity again.
Tankers full. World covid numbers rising. Prices have to fall unless purchasing is propped up by China or other large entities... but, the world is awash with plenty of oil again.
That's not to say there might be a short term long trade out Carnarvon, just the macro's of the framework aren't grand.


----------



## Garpal Gumnut (5 January 2021)

CVN remains in a nice uptrend with support at 28c. 

gg


----------



## Garpal Gumnut (11 August 2021)

I've been out of CVN since the descent. 

Where is this little monster up to atm?

Trending sideways 25c-27c for this last little time.

@Miner @peter2 @frugal.rock any comments.

gg


----------



## Miner (11 August 2021)

Garpal Gumnut said:


> I've been out of CVN since the descent.
> 
> Where is this little monster up to atm?
> 
> ...



frugal and others to comment.
For me CVN is the old grandma's clothing- emotional value to hold but no materialistic value.


----------



## Garpal Gumnut (11 August 2021)

Miner said:


> frugal and others to comment.
> For me CVN is the old grandma's clothing- emotional value to hold but no materialistic value.



Well get the cool iron out @Miner. 

Ole Olive Oyle and Uncle Gas will be on the up. 

gg


----------



## frugal.rock (17 August 2021)

Sorry Barpal, read but forgot to reply.


Garpal Gumnut said:


> Ole Olive Oyle and Uncle Gas will be on the up.




Haha, was only just looking at Olyve Oyl pictures the other day re Cobram business.
I didn't pop a eye over it though!

Not bullish on oil at the immediate present garps, based on short term occurrences.

Whilst I am for a medium term period, in current climate one needs to be careful where and when they enter, in general only, so as to achieve a profit from a trade or investment.
Nothing specific in that for Carnarvon though, just general or overall.

Not seeing anything particularly that catches my eye in the chart and no idea on funnymentals.






Had mentioned in POO thread about factors, or rather indicators, I considered pertinent to the oil price.
Another indicator not mentioned that should be considered (imo) is the US Government's willingness to put pressure on, to keep a lid on the poo.

I'm really just trying to keep tabs on the point where worldwide demand is really outstripping supply again.

Delta covid has put a dampener on this previously considered outcome, and I'm coming to the realisation, that demand may never get to a decently over stripping supply scenario that will move the poo uphill far enough.
It was a cliff last year, but supply/ demand are appearing fairly well yoked and travelling together for the time being.

Having said that, I do believe the poo will have one last hurrah before it gradually succumbs to world EV/ lithium greener energies forces, most probably in the next 12 months, give or take.

As for gas, I don't know, haven't been eating much brassica lately...😂

Edit; STO results out,
0.055 USD divvy on SP of $6.21


----------



## Miner (9 September 2021)

With this announcement https://cdn-api.markitdigital.com/a...pdf?access_token=00074yjMQPvNRRp3LAA4JjQxQJ4K
I believe, every thing will be ramp up and ramp down until Feb 22 and current holders will need to have patience !!!'
This could be a possible ramp up or infusing hope to current (like me) and probable investors . Incidentally Dorado Development FID is probably banking on the same as you can see here - MID 2022






			https://cdn-api.markitdigital.com/apiman-gateway/CommSec/commsec-node-api/1.0/event/document/1410-02419096-1MUGTLOFKP7U060LR7I0359F8G/pdf?access_token=00074yjMQPvNRRp3LAA4JjQxQJ4K
		

with little luke warm with a low volume from Market for sure.
This news on Good Oil Conference is a bit BS to me as drilling can not happen in 7 to 9 weeks if the rig will not reach by then. Should not inactive ASIC challenges CVN for aligning facts together ?
On 2nd September company published the expected time line to mobilise rig to Buffallo 7-9 weeks
 and then setting up time prior to start any drilling to start and now below news on Good Oil Conference is totally weird.


----------



## BlindSquirrel (26 October 2021)

CVN finally showing some life again!
I'm looking for around 40-45c before we see real resistance (once we get through this weekly order block).
That area lines up with the 0.5 Fib level and bull flag targets.


----------



## Garpal Gumnut (26 October 2021)

Miner said:


> With this announcement https://cdn-api.markitdigital.com/a...pdf?access_token=00074yjMQPvNRRp3LAA4JjQxQJ4K
> I believe, every thing will be ramp up and ramp down until Feb 22 and current holders will need to have patience !!!'
> This could be a possible ramp up or infusing hope to current (like me) and probable investors . Incidentally Dorado Development FID is probably banking on the same as you can see here - MID 2022
> View attachment 130077
> ...



CVN does tend to do this.

Uppsie daisy then downsie daisy.

I'll wait. And may be wrong. 

gg


----------



## System (18 November 2021)

On November 18th, 2021, Carnarvon Petroleum Limited changed its name to Carnarvon Energy Limited.


----------



## Als2own (29 December 2021)

CVN one of my top picks for next year. 
With their past drilling success, I think they are going to have 3 successful wells pushing the the price to new highs only to fade away depressing retail holders.
End of year will see a takeover


----------



## BlindSquirrel (10 January 2022)




----------



## Miner (10 January 2022)

Als2own said:


> CVN one of my top picks for next year.
> With their past drilling success, I think they are going to have 3 successful wells pushing the the price to new highs only to fade away depressing retail holders.
> End of year will see a takeover



Where is the take over @🤔


----------



## Als2own (15 January 2022)

Miner said:


> Where is the take over @🤔



End 2022


----------



## Miner (19 January 2022)

CVN came out of trading halt rather one day https://cdn-api.markitdigital.com/a...ess_token=0007FTdEmxJUv5OcMCDDVxOWWk2Hearlier than estimated .
Drilling result is as per their estimate but 80 m below.
Did not find the word CVN was pleased etc buzz words though drilling result was satisfactory.
Just reading between the lines how the positive result has aligned with market expectation. Thursday market will advise.
I do hold CVN.


----------



## Miner (19 January 2022)

camiakenn said:


> WICKR ID:megankush// BUY>>>??WEED, ??COKE, ?? ICE ??DEXIES??SHROOMS??SHARDS, ??GLOCKS, ??XANAXS, ??NEMBUTAL, ??LSD, ??MDMA, ??TRAMADOL, ??METH, ??MOLLY, ??VAPES, ??HOOKUP, ??PILLS, ??BENZOS, ??OXYCODONE, ??VALIUM, ??RITALIN, ?? MARIJUANA ??OXY ?? GHB ??GBL ??OPIODS?? KETAMINE ?? HEROIN ?? COLD ?? MD CAPS ?? CHARLIE ?? SNOW ?? WHITE GIRL ?? LSD ?? GUNS ?? GLOCKS ?? DEXIES ?? KETAMINE ?? OXY ?? SNOW ?? CRACK ?? SPEED ?? PUFF PUFF ?? WEED ?? SHROOMS ?? GEAR ?? PILLS ?? BUD ?? MARIJUANA ?? HEROIN ?? CHARLIE ?? CHASING SHARDS??



What's the message between capitalised words???


----------



## Ferret (19 January 2022)

This sounds bad.

12m gross oil column.  The revised seismic indicated 50 to 60m oil column.

The revised seismic seems to have got it wrong.  Maybe the field isn't economic.


----------



## Miner (20 January 2022)

Ferret said:


> This sounds bad.
> 
> 12m gross oil column.  The revised seismic indicated 50 to 60m oil column.
> 
> The revised seismic seems to have got it wrong.  Maybe the field isn't economic.



@Ferret 
Yes, that did sound bad. The gross column was too low to support the economics.
Will see it tomorrow for sure.
Personally, I have encashed my 50 pc of CVN holding, so paper impact will be 50% less tomorrow (I hope)
Have a good night.


----------



## Miner (20 January 2022)

Market behaved as predicted but probably somewhat better than i was speculating - only 12% fall compared to some of the high rises happened not long ago (in anticipation of drilling outcome)


----------



## BlindSquirrel (4 February 2022)

I was hesitant to load up at 23c... I'm already overinvested in this one. It will be fine, eventually!!


----------



## greggles (23 March 2022)

Game changer for CVN with the announcement this morning of a material oil discovery at the Pavo-1 well. Although CVN only have 30% to Santos' 70%, with oil prices still above US$100 a barrel it's the perfect time for a discovery like this. As a small cap stock the CVN share price will benefit from this much more than STO.


----------



## Miner (23 March 2022)

greggles said:


> Game changer for CVN with the announcement this morning of a material oil discovery at the Pavo-1 well. Although CVN only have 30% to Santos' 70%, with oil prices still above US$100 a barrel it's the perfect time for a discovery like this. As a small cap stock the CVN share price will benefit from this much more than STO.
> 
> View attachment 139365



Yes.
The market opened with 25 pc increase on CVN but STO with 80 pc holding of this discovery, did not blink.
Disclaimer- Holder of CVN and STO


----------



## BlindSquirrel (23 March 2022)




----------



## UMike (23 March 2022)

Miner said:


> Yes.
> The market opened with 25 pc increase on CVN but STO with 80 pc holding of this discovery, did not blink.
> Disclaimer- Holder of CVN and STO




Yea I was still dissecting the news and cursing myself for not buying more @21.5.

Back down to 37c with seller outnumbering buyers 2:1.

Still hold both as well.
_*Edit: (Santos 70 per cent and operator, Carnarvon Energy 30 per cent).*_

Dunno how to buy or sell (anything) at the moment. Funny times????


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## Miner (23 March 2022)

BlindSquirrel said:


> I was hesitant to load up at 23c... I'm already overinvested in this one. It will be fine, eventually!!



How about you invested at 23 cents ??


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## BlindSquirrel (23 March 2022)

my average is about 30c (the last top up was around 45c) so I'm pretty happy with it all


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## Dona Ferentes (23 March 2022)

> “_With the global oil and gas markets seeing increased volatility, low-CO2 oil and gas resources at Dorado and Pavo add significantly to Australia’s national energy security_,” said Santos’ chief executive, Kevin Gallagher.





> “_The Pavo-1 success is expected to support a potential low-cost tie-back to the first phase of the proposed Dorado development, with Pavo north having an estimated breakeven cost of less than $US10 per barrel_.”



excited .... just a bit


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## Miner (28 March 2022)

Trading Halt for capital raise.
High energy market. Recent rise on CVN price. Good discovery.
Not knowing the CR price, i see this is perfect time for CVN management to get a decent +30 cents price and oversubbscription of the CR.


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## Ferret (28 March 2022)

Looks like the capital raise is for the instos only.  That sucks...


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## Miner (28 March 2022)

Ferret said:


> Looks like the capital raise is for the instos only.  That sucks...



Yes. It sucks. $70 M only to Instos at 30 cents. Shareholders are just to be considered when they have no base. Once they find good base then shareholders are ridiculed under the legal coverage - no shareholders approval is required.      


			https://cdn-api.markitdigital.com/apiman-gateway/CommSec/commsec-node-api/1.0/event/document/1410-02503436-561L6R3LBDOABSB9IH0V1OHVG8/pdf?access_token=00072kDJ4WQl3deHjPcMP9dVMTHn


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## Miner (19 April 2022)

Apps 1 drill result. The lack of commercial outcome from an excellent drilling . 
Would like to see how market receives this.


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## qldfrog (19 April 2022)

Miner said:


> Apps 1 drill result. The lack of commercial outcome from an excellent drilling .
> Would like to see how market receives this.



not good -22%, I got in at 26c lets see with oil price surging how it will end up


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## Dona Ferentes (19 April 2022)

Miner said:


> Yes. It sucks. $70 M only to Instos at 30 cents. Shareholders are just to be considered when they have no base. Once they find good base then shareholders are ridiculed under the legal coverage - no shareholders approval is required.



You'd be sort of happy .... down 20% to 26c

Apus-1 wasn't quite a duster but clearly not a reservoir of commercial oil accumulation


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## Miner (19 April 2022)

Dona Ferentes said:


> You'd be sort of happy .... down 20% to 26c
> 
> Apus-1 wasn't quite a duster but clearly not a reservoir of commercial oil accumulation



It's a loose loose situation
I was unhappy not to get the 30 cents rights.
But now my current holding also gone down by 22 pc today


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## Garpal Gumnut (15 May 2022)

I've placed all me Oil bets some months ago on bigger fish and noticed some cash left beside my Oiler chips. 

CVN had me anxious and I sold last year. 

Any better chances now for a few lazy small ones on CVN on the morn . @Miner ?

I promise to DYOR ( Don't yelp on ruin ). 

It seems all over the place (AOTP) with good and bad wells and my betters from Riverview being allocated dud shares. 

BYO.

gg


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## Miner (15 May 2022)

Garpal Gumnut said:


> I've placed all me Oil bets some months ago on bigger fish and noticed some cash left beside my Oiler chips.
> 
> CVN had me anxious and I sold last year.
> 
> ...



Mate GG or Governor General whichever is right, I am biased as holding CVN.
Will expand on any further down turn.
The risks from CVN are distributed unlike others. 
Whatever you expand DYOR 😀😃🙂


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## Garpal Gumnut (15 May 2022)

Miner said:


> Mate GG or Governor General whichever is right, I am biased as holding CVN.
> Will expand on any further down turn.
> The risks from CVN are distributed unlike others.
> Whatever you expand DYOR 😀😃🙂



Sorry mate, the last person I asked advice from was Rene Riven shortly before he passed away, so I've discounted his ever since. Dying is not a good portend for advising on the future. It was a good wake and I appropriated some of my losses, such bling.

May I rephrase that. 

I see that you and @Dona Ferentes are looking at this piglet as I have myself over many years. 

Quo vadis? Sitting or waiting? It has been off my radar but I note it is imitating the first Mrs Gumnut's nightie on our wedding night. 

BYO

ATM

gg


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## Garpal Gumnut (15 May 2022)

I'll just pop up a 5 year weekly of CVN. It does tend to disappoint. I do remember many of the techies on ASF, and I,  back in 2018 trading this piglet from 13c up to 65c and being doubted by the fundamental chappies for bailing out as it turned down.

Such is life. It went from 40c to the sixties again, a year or so later.

Since then pain.

In 2020 @Miner and I from memory stalked it at 21-24c when it took off, but it was hard work.

It seems to be back at 20c again.

I think I'll leave it to the Riverview boys atm. ( ATM = Automated teller machine NOT At the moment so that I do not end up in front of some drunken coke addled beak for giving advice. )

BYO








gg


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## Miner (15 May 2022)

Garpal Gumnut said:


> Sorry mate, the last person I asked advice from was Rene Riven shortly before he passed away, so I've discounted his ever since. Dying is not a good portend for advising on the future. It was a good wake and I appropriated some of my losses, such bling.
> 
> May I rephrase that.
> 
> ...



GG 
You are funny. But I speak no English too. All I said earlier was, that I am holding and waiting but will not sell out as it is all paper loss now.


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## Ferret (17 August 2022)

FID for the Dorado development has been deferred.  CVN down 17.5%.  

Dorado looks like a good development to me, so the deferral is a bit of a surprise.

STO obviously thinks their money is better spent elsewhere at the moment.   They've given FID to Pikka in Alaska today.


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## Miner (17 August 2022)

Miner said:


> GG
> You are funny. But I speak no English too. All I said earlier was, that I am holding and waiting but will not sell out as it is all paper loss now.



My patience did not go well today and would worsen when everyone's read the announcement to decipher why the ##$$CEO was pleased to announce it. Must be a saddest 😢


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## UMike (18 August 2022)

Copy and Paste Intro.


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## Garpal Gumnut (31 August 2022)

I have been in and out of CVN, an oiler and gasser off the coast of WA, for many years, purely on a friend to nemesis basis, often with profit. 

It is languishing quite low atm. price wise, about 16c.

I trust some bigger suitor will take it out via takeover in September, the month of blood letting, coming up towards October.

gg


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## Miner (31 August 2022)

Garpal Gumnut said:


> I have been in and out of CVN, an oiler and gasser off the coast of WA, for many years, purely on a friend to nemesis basis, often with profit.
> 
> It is languishing quite low atm. price wise, about 16c.
> 
> ...



@Garpal Gumnut  Dear GGwh
I have to buy a good red for you if the takeover really happens. At the point the only red I see with CVN with its constant downwards price  

All the best to current CVN holders sitting on red and who invested now to be pink


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## Garpal Gumnut (20 September 2022)

Miner said:


> @Garpal Gumnut  Dear GGwh
> I have to buy a good red for you if the takeover really happens. At the point the only red I see with CVN with its constant downwards price
> 
> All the best to current CVN holders sitting on red and who invested now to be pink



For any followers of the Wyckoff Method of TA the CVN chart is looking set for a rebound. 

Hopefully before 30th Sept. 






gg


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## Miner (20 September 2022)

Garpal Gumnut said:


> For any followers of the Wyckoff Method of TA the CVN chart is looking set for a rebound.
> 
> Hopefully before 30th Sept.
> 
> ...



I am waiting to buy the champagne for @Garpal Gumnut


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## Garpal Gumnut (1 October 2022)

Garpal Gumnut said:


> I have been in and out of CVN, an oiler and gasser off the coast of WA, for many years, purely on a friend to nemesis basis, often with profit.
> 
> It is languishing quite low atm. price wise, about 16c.
> 
> ...



CVN is my pick again for the October Comp. Reasons are unchanged. Imo just a matter of time before a t/o. 

Good gas finds. Not big enough to produce in the present environment by the company. 

gg


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## Miner (1 October 2022)

Garpal Gumnut said:


> CVN is my pick again for the October Comp. Reasons are unchanged. Imo just a matter of time before a t/o.
> 
> Good gas finds. Not big enough to produce in the present environment by the company.
> 
> gg



@Garpal Gumnut 
I am losing patience to celebrate champagne 🥂 🍾. 
Please do something in Oct 👏 👏 👏


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## Garpal Gumnut (6 October 2022)

Miner said:


> @Garpal Gumnut
> I am losing patience to celebrate champagne 🥂 🍾.
> Please do something in Oct 👏 👏 👏



Being done as we speak. 

I’ve moved to 10th spot in the comp. 

If it goes above 18-20c I may even add to my holding. 

gg


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## Garpal Gumnut (31 October 2022)

CVN has to be a t/o target or JV with another gasser/oiler. 

Close to Asian markets in a State that barely agreed to Federation and has regretted it ever since. 

My pick again for the Nov 22 competition. 

gg


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## Garpal Gumnut (10 November 2022)

@Miner 

I'm quietly confident that I'm going to win the Competition with CVN this month. 

Note the narrow price range and the bullish divergence on the RSI. 

ps.   Don't mention it to @debtfree.

gg


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## peter2 (10 November 2022)

The Canarvon faithful will be like Trump supporters, looking for a new idol.

 I assume *CVN* is still drilling their Dorado project. It's never really been a gusher.

 As for that price chart, looks like the tracks of a drunk fly trying to walk a straight line with a few lurches to the left and right.


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## Miner (10 November 2022)

Garpal Gumnut said:


> @Miner
> 
> I'm quietly confident that I'm going to win the Competition with CVN this month.
> 
> ...



@Garpal Gumnut 
My beat wishes are for your win to lift my CVN stake into green


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## Garpal Gumnut (30 November 2022)

Well it is time to post on CVN again my pick in the Dec. Competition. 

Gas and Oil are where to be in these troubling times. You may lose if the earthlings suddenly become less voracious, greedy and warlike. 

On the other hand if they continue their past behaviour CVN could benefit. It's been doing sweet bu**er all for the last 3 months. 






gg


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## UMike (31 December 2022)

CVN is a strange and under-rated beast ATM.

_1. Dorado as a compelling development asset that will get sanctioned, funded and developed at the appropriate time; 
2. Pavo which substantially increases our liquids base and is an outstanding tie-in development to extend the Dorado production plateau; 
3. Huge exploration upside potential in the Bedout sub-basin which we plan to progressively capture; and 
4. Our biofuels project which is a real business opportunity and provides important balance to our portfolio as the world undertakes a progressive energy transition. 
We are resolutely focused on delivering these value-adding workstreams, as well as new opportunities, all of which in turn will be reflected in our share price performance in due course_

I agree so it is in My Jan 2023 tips as well as My yearly 2023 tip to do well.

It's at *NTA Per Share ($)
Cash *On hand.
Ticks the *Renewables* Box.

They just have to make good on their potential and start making a profit.
At this price they are also a takeover target.


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## Ferret (1 January 2023)

Why aren't those at Santos listening to the the sage advice from ASF posters and lobbing a bid for this one?

Maybe they'll get the message during 2023, so CVN is a pick for the 2023 comp.


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## Garpal Gumnut (2 January 2023)

Ferret said:


> Why aren't those at Santos listening to the the sage advice from ASF posters and lobbing a bid for this one?
> 
> Maybe they'll get the message during 2023, so CVN is a pick for the 2023 comp.



One of my picks as well for 2023 @Ferret 

A solid company with lotsa gas but no means to explore.

It should be $10-$20 by years end if the t/o specialists get a whiff.

gg


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