# How long is technical analysis of an instrument VALID?



## tech/a (24 April 2010)

In other words does it have an expiry date?

My view and experience is that *most*  types of analysis in terms of anticipation of future price action--- favorable to the analysis* is valid for 2 to 6 periods *again regardless of time frame---be that 5 min to weekly.

I feel an experienced practitioner can be better than 50% correct/accurate in analysis in the first 6 periods and less so there after-- to having no effect on current trading within 20 periods in that timeframe.
Of course analysis can alter the very next period and it is one of the characteristics of a good practitioner to recognise when analysis is no longer valid/or under threat.
Analysis can also further support previous analysis within the next 6 periods so experience should also give the analyst the ability to confirm his analysis going forward as well.

*Some* analysis *can* remain valid permanently going forward such as Elliott.Support and Resistance.

There are many here who (Like me) enjoy posting our analysis up for all to consider. It maybe an interesting exercise to see just how long our analysis does hold up---and how often---IE what %.


----------



## Boggo (24 April 2010)

tech/a said:


> In other words does it have an expiry date?
> 
> *Some* analysis *can* remain valid permanently going forward such as Elliott.Support and Resistance.
> 
> There are many here who (Like me) enjoy posting our analysis up for all to consider. It maybe an interesting exercise to see just how long our analysis does hold up---and how often---IE what %.




Is this along the lines of what you are getting at tech/a ?

(Conveniently this particular scenario produces some nice round figures using 2% of $20000 as the risk input)

(click to expand)


----------



## tech/a (24 April 2010)

Well yes---but what exactly IS the analysis for this chart?
Off to dinner a crustacean awaits.


----------



## Boggo (24 April 2010)

tech/a said:


> Well yes---but what exactly IS the analysis for this chart?
> Off to dinner a crustacean awaits.




The analysis is that this stock has once again reached a level of support which at some point may result in a reversal.
In this particular instance it seems to have a clearly defined support base which seems to be holding and a calculated potential target area that would make it worthwhile to retain an interest.

A recent example of this type of behaviour was ABC...

(Those "Decision Points" are somewhat similiar to the "MOB" function in your AGET)

(click to expand)


----------



## tech/a (26 April 2010)

Here are 5 charts---mostly weekly that I have chosen to follow the analysis on as we go forward.

They are *NOT recommendations* and are posted up for discussion purposes only.

There is quite a lot of Analysis or markers as I call them applicable to each chart---would take me far too long to commentary each chart to its full extent. But over time as discussion hopefully comes about all will be slowley revieled.

First stock *HUN* is a daily chart.
Showing a strong support after a massive rise---excellent volume and low risk to get set.




*WFM*
A weekly chart with some tremendous volume markers.
accumulating---a common theme with other charts presented.




*SUN*
Weekly
Similar.



*JML* 
Weekly
Similar again Nice marker on volume.




*HFA*
Weekly
Similar again.




With most of these I expect to know within 3 bars wether they are likely to move in the long direction or not.
The weekly charts could take 3-6 bars.
By then further analysis will be more valid.


----------

