# TLSCA - T3 Telstra float ups and downs



## itchy (21 October 2006)

Id like to hear some opinions on the upcoming T3 float. I have heard so many mixed ideas/ recommendations, suprisingly many of them positive.
Whats everyones take?????


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## Freeballinginawetsuit (21 October 2006)

*Re: T3 IPO ups and downs*



			
				itchy said:
			
		

> Id like to hear some opinions on the upcoming T3 float. I have heard so many mixed ideas/ recommendations, suprisingly many of them positive.
> Whats everyones take?????




I threw mine in the bin when it came, Vodafone are going to cane Telstra in the years to come.


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## pacer (21 October 2006)

*Re: T3 IPO ups and downs*

The prospectus doesn't even make good toilet paper.....what a waste of trees!


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## krisbarry (21 October 2006)

*Re: T3 IPO ups and downs*

Its just a government sell!

Be careful or we might have 3 generations of angry mum and dad investors, each being told it was a great investment at twice the price


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## Realist (21 October 2006)

*Re: T3 IPO ups and downs*

I'm just wondering if you could buy in, get the first dividend, then wait a few days for the price to bounce up after the ex-divi price drop. Then sell?

You'll effectively get half the 14% p.a. dividend. 

Dunno, just an idea - maybe the ex-divi price wont bounce up and you're down??

I couldn't be buggered reading it and I chucked my prospectus in the bin though.


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## Julia (21 October 2006)

*Re: T3 IPO ups and downs*

Another one who tossed it in the bin unopened.

Julia


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## Fab (21 October 2006)

*Re: T3 IPO ups and downs*

I will get on this one. I like the incentive and it is to me always very good sign when so call specialist say don't buy


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## nizar (21 October 2006)

*Re: T3 IPO ups and downs*

I agree with freeballer, pacer and Julia
This one went straight to the bin, i told my parents actually to BURN IT to mark my exact words.

There are much much better stocks to buy at the moment.

And Realist - for a company with a pretty damn good history of share price depreciation, what makes u think that this will stay at or above the float price by the time the dividend is paid??

Oh sorry Realist u chucked it in the bin as well - Good man.

I seriously hope no1 buys this, but obviously some will. And it will be those gullible mums and days who think, maybe its different this time.

Once bitten twice shy, u dont fall for the same trick twice.


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## Fab (21 October 2006)

*Re: T3 IPO ups and downs*

I don't like Telstra either but I believe the sweetner of this one are too tempting not to buy into T3. If like me you think Telstra has bottomed. The dividend + all the other incentive make T3 very very interesting. That is why I will get it.
Otherwise I agree they are better buys out there but this one is reasonably secure in my opinion at least for 1 year.


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## YChromozome (21 October 2006)

*Re: T3 IPO ups and downs*

I must be a slow. Mine is here somewhere, but it's still in the plastic wrap. Its in the bin as soon as I find it. (I never wanted it - just a waste of paper)



			
				nizar said:
			
		

> for a company with a pretty damn good history of share price depreciation, what makes u think that this will stay at or above the float price by the time the dividend is paid??




While some say (hope) it can't go down much further, I thought people hanging up on the PSTN landline cashcow for Mobiles or VoIP will only accelerate - its bearly started. Likewise competition in the mobile phone, mobile broadband and broadband markets. Telstra can try and compete in those segments, but the margins are not as rosy. They lose out either way.

Telstra is still very much a monopoly in many segments and I can't see them growing that share, only losing it. I think they will do well to slow this exodus.

Often people use the good dividend as a reason to invest, but ignore the fact that should the price fall, they lose most if not more of their dividend in capital.


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## CanOz (21 October 2006)

*Re: T3 IPO ups and downs*

Is it possible that the retail side of this float could close not fully subscribed?


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## nizar (21 October 2006)

*Re: T3 IPO ups and downs*



			
				CanOz said:
			
		

> Is it possible that the retail side of this float could close not fully subscribed?



probably not. there are enough gullible out there; which is why all those share seminar people and property guys like henry kaye survive.


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## DOC (22 October 2006)

*Re: T3 IPO ups and downs*

1. IMO telstra seems to be near bottom.
2. And when there's so many people saying they wont buy and dont buy, then this is the best time to buy!!!
3. New technology will usher TLS into the next expansion stage. Slowly but surely.
4. There is an election coming up in the near future, our government does not want to lose face on this one so quickly, short term gains and price stability are expected.
5. Dividends 14%?
6. My grandmother is buying in T3, so it must be good!  
7. Damir Dokic is out of the country.


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## Julia (22 October 2006)

*Re: T3 IPO ups and downs*



			
				Fab said:
			
		

> I don't like Telstra either but I believe the sweetner of this one are too tempting not to buy into T3. If like me you think Telstra has bottomed. The dividend + all the other incentive make T3 very very interesting. That is why I will get it.
> Otherwise I agree they are better buys out there but this one is reasonably secure in my opinion at least for 1 year.



Fab

Why do you think Telstra has bottomed?

Julia


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## nizar (22 October 2006)

*Re: T3 IPO ups and downs*



			
				Julia said:
			
		

> Fab
> 
> Why do you think Telstra has bottomed?
> 
> Julia




Probably the same reason he thinks ZFX has topped
He thinks TLS has bottomed because its gone from was it $6 or $7 to $3.50 so surely it cant be worse than that??

And he thinks ZFX has topped because its run from $2 in last august, surely it cant run more than that??

Thanks for the advice Fab   

You will learn one day, believe me, easy way or hard way. 

Probably u thought AMP had bottomed at $15?? when it went from $22, but then when it went to $10? How about when it was at $5??
did you think OXR topped last year when it was $1.20? i mean it had to, right? it was 90c not long before that!?

If until now u dont understand the point, then


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## blinkau (22 October 2006)

*Re: T3 IPO ups and downs*

Iv read the prospectus and considered investing a very small amount. You have to wonder if its such a good deal then why does the government need to spend 20 million to advertise it. I think until Telstra can sufficently prove they are turning the company around I will keep clear of it   

Its on nice glossy paper at least


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## Julia (22 October 2006)

*Re: T3 IPO ups and downs*



			
				blinkau said:
			
		

> Its on nice glossy paper at least




It would have made more sense to save the trees!

Julia


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## rub92me (23 October 2006)

*Re: TLS- T3 Telstra float ups and downs*

I read the prospectus before putting it in the bin. Pathetic. 
Summary: we are the best, but those nasty regulators won't let us play. If we f@$% up spectacurlarly, don't blame us, blame the regulators. 
p.s. Buy now, and we tell you what the price is after you have committed to buy.


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## RichKid (23 October 2006)

*Re: TLS- T3 Telstra float ups and downs*



			
				rub92me said:
			
		

> .....
> p.s. Buy now, and we tell you what the price is after you have committed to buy.




This is the part that really annoys me- we don't even know how much we have to pay per share, it is misleading imo to focus on the artificially high div yield for the first instalment when we don't know how much we'll have to pay per share overall to complete the purchase. I've seen value investors saying it's only worth 2.80 (Clime Capital's Roger Montgomery- google for articles). I'll see if I can find out when the insto bookbuild price will be known for the second instalment (and roughly how much it'll be).


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## Kauri (23 October 2006)

*Re: TLS - T3 Telstra float ups and downs*

I'm holding out for the set of steak knifes.   :horse: 

     Cheers.. Kauri   (aka the 4th Amigo)


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## Fab (23 October 2006)

*Re: TLS - T3 Telstra float ups and downs*



> Hi,
> 
> 
> Probably the same reason he thinks ZFX has topped
> ...




Let me clarify my view on this. I don't think ZFX has topped I think I will go up further nevertheless my point was that it was going to drop today and maybe in the few next days as people sell their shares as part od dividend stripping.
Regarding TLS I believe T3 is a good buy as it is heavily discounted and as long as they keep the high dividend I can't see why the share would drop dramtically the risk is not in the first year of T3 it is after therefore if like me you plan to keep T3 for 1 year and sell after I don't how you can loose their


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## carmo (23 October 2006)

*Re: TLS - T3 Telstra float ups and downs*

TLS goes exdiv late Feb, wait untill just prior to that, they may even be below the $2. Then hang on untill the next div (late August) then get out.
Thats what I am thinking, collecting my 14% in six months.


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## RichKid (23 October 2006)

*Re: TLS - T3 Telstra float ups and downs*

Here's an article by Annette Sampson in the Sydney Morning Herald discussing some issues, including some guesses at what the instos will do, the bookbuild  will be in mid November so we'll only know the final instalment price at that stage: http://www.smh.com.au/news/business...unters-will-pay/2006/10/20/1160851134558.html


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## RichKid (23 October 2006)

*Re: TLS - T3 Telstra float ups and downs*



			
				carmo said:
			
		

> TLS goes exdiv late Feb, wait untill just prior to that, they may even be below the $2. Then hang on untill the next div (late August) then get out.
> Thats what I am thinking, collecting my 14% in six months.




Some sort of div strip play is what most sophisticated investors and instos will be thinking imo, with possible upside if the media ownership frenzy has its way next year (Macbank might get involved), worth fleshing out and checking the prospectus too to see what your obligations are.


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## YELNATS (23 October 2006)

*Re: T3 IPO ups and downs*



			
				Stop_the_clock said:
			
		

> Its just a government sell!
> 
> Be careful or we might have 3 generations of angry mum and dad investors, each being told it was a great investment at twice the price




As a holder of T1 & T2 shares, Telstra is the only real dog in my portfolio.

The sweeteners they offer seem only short term. What are their prospects longer term 3-5 years and beyond? Has the prospectus addressed this issue adequately?

The offer will be fully subscribed because of the invitation to Japanese investors who are goggle-eyed at any yield above 5%. And I thought Telstra was an Aussie icon and was to remain so. 

I won't be taking part in T3 and will consider selling out above $4.

Regards YN.


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## Kipp (23 October 2006)

*Re: TLS - T3 Telstra float ups and downs*

Sol Trujillo, Super Mario.... are they same person?  Maybe his leadership is result of busting all those bricks with his head???


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## blinkau (26 October 2006)

*Re: TLS - T3 Telstra float ups and downs*

Iv decided to avoid this one all together. I think it will open o-k but there are better stocks out there. Everyone in australia seems to have the same 3 ideas

1. Sell when it opens and take a profit
2. Sell after the dividends
3. Sell before the final installment is due 

It seems to be the perfect plan for every aussie to win


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## Ken (26 October 2006)

*Re: TLS - T3 Telstra float ups and downs*

surely people should be going short on telstra right about now.

i have no doubt there will be some profit taking. its almost like a margin loan minus the tax in a way...

i have worked out that if the second installment is $3.80 then the price paid per share if you include 14% dividends  and  then 1 for 25 extra shares you get is $3.38

i am still on of the opinion telstra has enough of a monoply to add shareholder value long term.  I like the fact people think its going to be difficult, if it was easy telstra would not be in a $3.70 share right now. 

The day will come when the US economy starts to slow, when that day comes i think people will look for the high yield stocks such as telstra which has lagged for so long.

In 2015 i think telstra will be $10 a share and with the dividends received it just be a giant snow ball effect.

future trump towers needs it!


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## RichKid (6 November 2006)

*Re: TLS - T3 Telstra float ups and downs*

I've noticed some marketing material from the instos, see the insto websites- selling warrants over the T3 instalment receipts, most are very highly geared, very volatile, probably very expensive instruments too.....so be very careful!!


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## trading_rookie (7 November 2006)

*Re: TLS - T3 Telstra float ups and downs*



> The sweeteners they offer seem only short term. What are their prospects longer term 3-5 years and beyond? Has the prospectus addressed this issue adequately?




Next-Gen broadband network (I'm sure we've all seen the ads) and plan B a DLS2+ rollout (fibre-to-the-node network) if TLS fails to get the ACCC on side re: access pricing for third-parties.

TLS controls the exchanges so whether in the future you subscribe to BigPond or some other DSL+ provider the chances are they're gonna have to pay revenue to TLS to use their network. And let's hope with the government surrendering their major shareholder tag that the ACCC see's TLS in a different light and makes 'em pay big time! 

And that's the thing I think is lost on most ppl, whether you use a TLS product or one of the competitors, in most cases they have to pay TLS a 'wholesale' price to use their network. 

That includes most mobile phone carries, they still have to go through TLS's 'bundled loop'.

It's also good to read that after the PCCW debacle, TLS has made some smarter business decisions in NZ. Not sure about the China Real Estate/Furniture web portal they've bought a share in.


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## binh25 (9 November 2006)

*T3 Installment??*

T3 Close today 4pm
do you need to pay by 4pm today or you can apply for the shares and say pay $2 installment next week?


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## RichKid (9 November 2006)

*Re: T3 Installment??*



			
				binh25 said:
			
		

> T3 Close today 4pm
> do you need to pay by 4pm today or you can apply for the shares and say pay $2 installment next week?




Hi binh25

I believe you have to at least have your application in by 4pm today (your local time), see www.t3shareoffer.com.au for more info or call their help line. I read somewhere that you may be able to drop off your applications by 4pm today at any Commonwealth Bank branch, I assume you'll have a few days within which to finalize payment. 

Please check yourself rather than relying on me as I may be wrong. I'm not sure if there are any people here on ASF who have been involved in big ipo's or public offerings but I'd assume that they check to see if the payment has been received at the time they process the particular application- which in this case _may_ give you a few days leeway. 

You could also contact one of the sponsoring brokers (eg Commsec) to ask them if they can help you if you're late with payment.

FYI: The Telstra 3 Telephone Information Centre number is 1800 18 18 18

NB: I'm buying into T3 but I'm not otherwise directly associated with this offer or TLS (or the govt!), but I trade through comsec.


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## Ken (9 November 2006)

*Re: TLS - T3 Telstra float ups and downs*

i  applied for 6000 through my name.

and 2000 through my mums name.

i am guarantied 4000...

they are my nest egg....

i feel  for the people who got burnt in the first too offers.  

but now it is going private. 


shareholders come first.  john howard can go play cricket on the beach or something,,,


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## JoshyJ (9 November 2006)

*Re: TLS - T3 Telstra float ups and downs*

Sorry but Telstra is a dog for one simple truth it gets bent over by ACCC. 

I believe if ACCC would let Telstra do more it would be a tyrant, but what ACCC is doing is protecting the smaller establishments, from getting trampled which tends to get Telstra trampled instead. 

If Telstra cant get there own network and lock out competition or allow a much higher access price, then subsequently they lose there monopoly and just become just another telecom company. Optus knows this thats why they have now got there own network. 

Well thats my take, i might be wrong in some parts, as i believe Telstra is such a dog that i dont want to even bother researching it.


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## trading_rookie (10 November 2006)

*Re: TLS - T3 Telstra float ups and downs*



> Optus knows this thats why they have now got there own network.




Optus would never have entered the market if the government at the time had not agreed to allow it to install a fibre optic cable b/w Syd and Mel and offer a competitive rate to businesses. 

While working for TLS as a contractor, I recall TLS staff being peed at Optus' demands to have more access to the exchanges, apparently even made it to question time in Parliment.

Yet if you use Optus's fixed line service, you're still charged a connection fee to go through a TLS owned exchange. And didn't Foxtel aquire Optus Pay-TV interests and what they offter now as part of Optus TV is Foxtel - with TLS owning a 25% share?

My concern is how relevant will the Telstra Act become once the government is no longer a major shareholder. 

Having indirectly worked for TLS twice, I'm hoping that a privatised TLS will see the 'public sector syndrome' that I've personally witnessed disappear for a workforce dedicated to success. Hopefully 'deadwood' being shifted sideways is eliminated!


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## Ken (19 November 2006)

*Re: TLS - T3 Telstra float ups and downs*

Telstra second installment for Retail investors is $1.60.

i requested 8000 shares in the T3 float.

Hypothetically if something happened like Telstra went to $4.25 and i choose to sell them before the 18 month period. would i be then paying institutional amount for of $3.70 per share.


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## Narkov (19 November 2006)

*Re: TLS - T3 Telstra float ups and downs*



			
				Ken said:
			
		

> Telstra second installment for Retail investors is $1.60.
> 
> i requested 8000 shares in the T3 float.
> 
> Hypothetically if something happened like Telstra went to $4.25 and i choose to sell them before the 18 month period. would i be then paying institutional amount for of $3.70 per share.




If you only sold the installment receipts then all you pay is $2.


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## Kauri (19 November 2006)

*Re: TLS - T3 Telstra float ups and downs*

T3 holders might be smiling soon...  time for a break I think..  :bloated:


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## Narkov (19 November 2006)

*Re: TLS - T3 Telstra float ups and downs*



			
				Kauri said:
			
		

> T3 holders might be smiling soon...  time for a break I think..  :bloated:




You have single-handedly blown any respect I had for TA.


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## BSD (19 November 2006)

*Re: TLS - T3 Telstra float ups and downs*



			
				Narkov said:
			
		

> You have single-handedly blown any respect I had for TA.




Hadn't you seen a "Minchin Upturn" before?


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## Kauri (19 November 2006)

*Re: TLS - T3 Telstra float ups and downs*



			
				BSD said:
			
		

> Hadn't you seen a Minchin upturn before




Time to fess up. it was actually a Minchinbury upturn   :alcohol:


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## RichKid (19 November 2006)

*Re: TLS - T3 Telstra float ups and downs*



			
				BSD said:
			
		

> Hadn't you seen a "Minchin Upturn" before?




lol, that's a classic, nice chart too there kauri!!

Here's a view on the recent price behaviour of TLS from the SMH, basically a hindsight view of how the sale was structured and its effects: http://www.smh.com.au/news/business...bear-trap-in-t3/2006/11/10/1162661896756.html


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## trading_rookie (21 November 2006)

*Re: TLSCA- T3 Telstra float ups and downs*

In re: to a hypothetical question posed earlier, is it possible for the T3 instalment receipt to actually get to $4.25 while TLS slumps around $3.60? I don't mean overnight but say in the 18 month period bf the 2nd instalment is due. 

If it is possible, how would it affect TLS absorbing T3? Would the price of TLS go up or are unlucky T3 holders sorry for not selling up bf the 18 month deadline.


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## Warren Buffet II (11 December 2006)

Well TLSCA,

Do not read if you threw your prospect to the bin   

TLSCA, you are a winner 25%  in 3/4 weeks and keep going strong.

I knew this float was going to work pretty good as the goverment pretty much gave away its shares for the sake of getting out of there. Telstra share book is currently $2.10 and we got TLSCA for $2 (I know $1.6 is still to be paid) but the point is that Telstra is a monopoly and I am sure profit upgrades will come soon.

WBII


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## TheRage (11 December 2006)

Warren Buffet II said:
			
		

> Well TLSCA,
> 
> Do not read if you threw your prospect to the bin
> 
> ...




I wonder how long this will last. Increase in Sp is due to oversubscription of T3 it has nothing to do with inherrant undervaluation in Telstra. Every man and his dog jumped into this just to get a 14% dividend yield. I don't disagree that Telstra is a monopoly but as to profit upgrades I am not holding my breathe. There are many hurdles to overcome before this will hapen. Good luck with T3.


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## Ken (11 December 2006)

How far can T3 go before the instutions pull the pin.  or is it that fund manager are still underweight in them with the view resources are peaking in a couple of years.

I have them on my margin loan, but i am not borrowing against it with the view of it popping.

I would still be satisified if they drop to $2.20 as I bought them for the dividend and the free shares in 18 months.

100,000 australians subscribed to T3 i have read.  

I am glad to be one.

Need to decide whether I stick with them.

Couldnt see them going much past $2.30 now they are over $2.50.  Not counting the chickens just yet though. cant see it lasting.


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## YELNATS (11 December 2006)

Warren Buffet II said:
			
		

> Well TLSCA,
> 
> Do not read if you threw your prospect to the bin
> 
> ...




I said previously on this thread that I threw my T3 prospectus in the bin, like many others did. But on seceond thoughts I retrieved it and subscribed, and I am jolly glad I did. Go T3 go. regards YN.


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## Ken (12 December 2006)

If you buy TLSCA do you still get the free shares after the 18months?

Or do you have to have held them from the start?


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## Warren Buffet II (13 December 2006)

Ken said:
			
		

> If you buy TLSCA do you still get the free shares after the 18months?
> 
> Or do you have to have held them from the start?




Hi Ken,

The only way of getting the free shares is to buy them in the float and keep them  for 18 months. That means that anyone buying now is not going to get them and the most important one is that anyone selling now will give away that money which at current prices is for a 5000 lot = 200 free shares, 200 X $4 = $800.

The goverment was very smart with this float and people were only thinking about the didvs = 14% but the free shares are around another 4% return @ $2. Plus I said before anyone selling now is giving back to the goverment those free shares.

WBII


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## Noskcid (22 February 2007)

I also threw mine in the bin but luckily I had a second thought and pick it back out


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## bigdog (26 February 2007)

SP has realy dropped today down 17 cents

TLSCA   $2.94    -$0.17  -5.47%  29,412,013 shares $79,057,593  
26-Feb 10:43:40 

TLS  $4.37 -0.170  -3.74%


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## nomore4s (26 February 2007)

I think it went ex d/e today


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## Warren Buffet II (26 February 2007)

bigdog said:
			
		

> SP has realy dropped today down 17 cents
> 
> TLSCA   $2.94    -$0.17  -5.47%  29,412,013 shares $79,057,593
> 26-Feb 10:43:40
> ...




Yes, Ex-Didvs today. It should drop around .182 cents. So it closed @3.11 Friday, it should be @ around 2.92-2.93 today.

WBII


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## Gurgler (8 May 2007)

Excuse my ignorance, but with the purchase price of this stock set at $3.60 ($2 paid + $1.60 still due), will people see this as a 'glass ceiling'; i.e should we expect significant resistance at that level?


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## Bazmate (8 May 2007)

TLS at $4.87,   TLSCA at $3.41 with $1.60 left to pay (total $5.01).

The difference is the time value of the $1.60. ie. as a shareholder you can still use that $1.60 to earn income until the pay day. There is also the extra shares to be paid for those holding TLSCA from the float, this would have the effect of limiting sellers probably pushing the price of TLSCA up a touch.

Therefore, if TLS share price rises then TLSCA will move up by the same dollars and cents amount and if TLS drops so will TLSCA..... no glass ceiling.

cheers
Baz


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## Noskcid (8 May 2007)

Bazmate said:


> TLS at $4.87,   TLSCA at $3.41 with $1.60 left to pay (total $5.01).
> 
> The difference is the time value of the $1.60. ie. as a shareholder you can still use that $1.60 to earn income until the pay day. There is also the extra shares to be paid for those holding TLSCA from the float, this would have the effect of limiting sellers probably pushing the price of TLSCA up a touch.
> 
> ...




Im actually free holding TLSCA now so either way im good, but just out of curiosity

So the $1.60 is on top of what the price is now?? I thought it was included hence for example, $2.00 + $1.60 = $3.60 which is still a loss of .29c for the current sp at $3.41 or did I miss something, and the price will be $5.01 then???

But yes there's from memory 1 share per 25 holdings and still a div payment to come.


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## Bazmate (8 May 2007)

As I understand it, we'll get a bill for $1.60 for each TLSCA option in about a years time to convert them into TLS shares.

Baz

Disclaimer: Not a financial adviser... blah blah... DYOR... blah blah... all care but no responsibility...


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## Noskcid (8 May 2007)

Bazmate said:


> As I understand it, we'll get a bill for $1.60 for each TLSCA option in about a years time to convert them into TLS shares.
> 
> Baz
> 
> Disclaimer: Not a financial adviser... blah blah... DYOR... blah blah... all care but no responsibility...





Yeah thats my understandign too, but u where mentioning it equates to $5.01 due the the $1.60 payment, my understanding there is that, the payment doesn't add to the sp, it it will cause movements but not a $1.60 increase. 

Im not sure if I miss understood you there, but would be good if you could explain a bit further.


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## X888 (25 July 2007)

What are you opinions next year ?

Would you say the share price would go up or down when we have to pay the rest next year?


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## Ken (25 July 2007)

I dont think it matters i bought for the dividend.


Yield will be an important factor in years to comes.


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