# ANZ - ANZ Banking Group



## markrmau (27 April 2005)

Price action this morning (only 20mins into morning) indicates that results are well received.

Barring any dramatic sell off towards end of day, it *might* be a good one to buy at close and hang onto for a few days.

Please do own research etc.


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## Fung (27 April 2006)

Any comments on this?
Seems like there are steady growth but no as stock as CBA and NAB


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## Fab (24 October 2006)

*ANZ*

I am thinking to get some warrant on ANZ as I believe that ANZ result on thursday should be good and share price will keep rising until dividend date.
My only worry is if on wednesday CPI is above average and interest rate are forecast to rise which I believe might stop ANZ rise. Am I reading correctly or is there something I am missing


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## bingk6 (24 October 2006)

*Re: ANZ*

Hi Fab,

I agree with you that ANZ's result is likely to be good. However, I have noticed with a lot of blue chip stocks that even if the results are good (at or slightly above analyst positions), the stocks tend to get sold off a bit at result release, mainly because the good news has already been factored into the share price. Just be a bit careful about assuming continued SP strength after a good results report. Unless offcourse the result is an absolute bolter, in which case your assumption can be correct. Unlikely though for a banking stock.

Just my


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## deftfear (24 October 2006)

I had thoughts about doing something similar for ANZ's last dividend, but just bought some shares outright which ended up saving me a lot of money. The examples they have on the asx look great if the price is going up, but if it goes down you are in for a much larger capital loss as well. 

They released great results, but got dragged down in the market downturn and maybe a bit more due to the increase in interest rates. The share price dropped a fair bit and the dividend received nowhere near covered the capital loss.

I'm not even looking at any of the banks for dividends at the moment as the probability of a rate rise puts a bit too much uncertaintity in their share price for my liking.


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## Fab (25 October 2006)

I bought some ANZIMT. results have been just released, I have not read them but they must be good as the share price is jumping


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## Fab (25 October 2006)

Rate rise almost certain now and ANZ has hardly moved. Pretty good sign. Next is their annual results annoucement tomorrow which is expected to be good. Looks to me that this one might keep running at least until dividend payment that is why I bought today ANZIMT


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## Fab (26 October 2006)

Record profit and us interest rate kept unchanged should push this one up


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## Fab (9 November 2006)

- 4% that looks a bit too much for an ex - dividend date. I expected it to go back up soon


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## scsl (9 November 2006)

Fab said:
			
		

> - 4% that looks a bit too much for an ex - dividend date. I expected it to go back up soon



I said on another thread last night that ANZ was looking really overbought and that I was holding back on shorting it with CFDs. And what do you know, it plummets today!   The dividend amount is 69 cents, but ANZ managed to be down 128 cents (over 4%) in the last 10 minutes of trade.


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## alie (10 July 2007)

Any more discussions on ANZ?

I was considering investing in one of the banks and WBC and ANZ are the cheapest options at the moment.


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## patrick (10 July 2007)

alie said:


> Any more discussions on ANZ?
> 
> I was considering investing in one of the banks and WBC and ANZ are the cheapest options at the moment.




Your moneys very safe in any of them ANZ and WBC are the cheapest but NAB to me seems to be at a reletively good price atm i feel CBA is a bit high at the moment.

Iv held WBC for a number  of years (about 10) now and they have been and continue to be a great long term investment with good dividends same as any of the top 4 banks. Im about to buy some NAB with my marginal loan but was considering ANZ.

They all do such similar things its hard to pick between them the prob the only reason i chose NAB over ANZ is because there UK operations are starting to pick up but like i say they are all so similar and safe and from my experience any of would be a gd long term investment.

hope this helps 

cheers


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## GreatPig (15 July 2007)

I picked up some recently based on a few technical indicators:

- The bullish RSI divergence in early June.

- The rounding bottom pattern through June.

- The breakout above the recent downtrend line a week or so ago.

- The current uptrend has been in place since mid-2004 and this action through June has been the lowest it's been below the trend line in relative terms, except perhaps for a brief dip in July last year, so it's just coming out of over-sold territory on the RSI. This indicates to me that unless it's about to go into a complete change of trend, it's more likely to pick back up soon.

- Finally, I'm not big on volume indications, but the red candle on 29th June had nearly double the 100 day EMA of volume and closed way off the low. However, the next day had a bit above average volume as well and closed down near the low, so I'm not sure if that cancels the previous day's good indication or not.

Anyway, that's enough indications for me. My nickname may be "Trend-breaker", but is my influence really strong enough to negate that many positive indications? 

Cheers,
GP


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## GreatPig (28 July 2007)

Well so much for all the effort that went into that analysis... 

Out yesterday at $28.43

Cheers,
GP


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## UMike (28 July 2007)

GreatPig said:


> Well so much for all the effort that went into that analysis...
> 
> Out yesterday at $28.43
> 
> ...



Really!!!!

I bought a small parcel $28.25. I'm beginning to tire of trading potentially daily.
Along with a fully franked 5%+ dividend the sp should be a long term improver imo.


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## brettc4 (28 September 2007)

John McFarlane who will shortly be leaving (tomorrow) was on Lateline Business tonight and they were talking about the move into Asia and the possibility of the 4 Pillars policy being removed.  He believes that the 4 pillars policy may be removed in the not to distant future and may be sped up if a foriegn company buys one of the smaller banks.

He also talked about the big banks in Singapore being the same size as the Big 4 here, and the Chinese companies now being the biggest.

I have 2 quesitons for you:

1) Do you think the ANZ move into Asia will be succesful

2) Do you think the 4 Pillar Policy will be removed and if so, who would buy who?

Brett
(For disclosure reasons, I own shares in ANZ)


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## Kauri (23 October 2007)

ANZ caught my attention yesterday, although it booked a lower close than the previous day it was quite an impressive performance in a generally bad day. Managed it on good volume to boot. (From memory the profit ann. is due any day now?)
 Cheers
..........Kauri


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## deep_is_blue (23 October 2007)

Kauri said:


> ANZ caught my attention yesterday, although it booked a lower close than the previous day it was quite an impressive performance in a generally bad day. Managed it on good volume to boot. (From memory the profit ann. is due any day now?)
> Cheers
> ..........Kauri




pretty sure the profit announcement is locked in for Thursday... although it could  be pushed back.
Got onto these shares at $13 back in the day, quite happy now


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## Julia (23 October 2007)

This has been one of my long term holds but unless the profit announcement has some positive result on the SP I'll be selling half my holding.  The SP performance over this last year has been underwhelming to say the least.


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## dhukka (25 October 2007)

Disappointed on the back of higher provisions for credit losses which was flagged at the half yearly. Still, quite a jump in provisions. It will be interesting to see how NAB and WBC have performed in this environment.


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## Garpal Gumnut (25 October 2007)

Kauri said:


> ANZ caught my attention yesterday, although it booked a lower close than the previous day it was quite an impressive performance in a generally bad day. Managed it on good volume to boot. (From memory the profit ann. is due any day now?)
> Cheers
> ..........Kauri




I posted the chart on the Elliot Wave thread Kauri, do you think that technically the 4th wave may break down at this stage?

gg


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## YELNATS (25 October 2007)

After announcing results, down 3.7% today to finish at $29.96. As often happens unless company profits guidance is exceeded by actual results, the sp is battered in the short term. 

Not to worry, I'm a long term holder, ANZ along with the other major banks are core to my SMSF. I'll use this opportunity to maybe accumulate, also the lower sp means more shares allocated under the DRP.


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## profithunter (25 October 2007)

I shorted ANZ yesterday on CFDs, the stock has run so hard that any disappointment in the earnings report would trigger a sell off and thats exactly what happened.  Provisions gowth is rising faster than revenue growth and the div was at the lower end of expectations.

ANZ rallys into every earnings report and sells off after it (check the weekly chart at the end of every Oct and April). its like clock work.


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## Julia (25 October 2007)

Profithunter,

You're suggesting the stock "has run hard".  I wish I agreed with you!
Just looking at a 1 year chart, the price with today's drop is not much above what it was a year ago, and even looking at two years, for a core blue chip stock ANZ's performance has been pretty disappointing.

Compare it with, e.g. CBA, which has performed much better.

I've held ANZ for many years but am seriously thinking I'll sell half my holding.


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## profithunter (25 October 2007)

Hi Julia,

When I said 'run hard' I was talking from a short term perspective ie the last few weeks.  ANZ has run from $28 to an intra day high of $31.61 yesterday over a few weeks and in my view was primed for a pull back.  It still offers good value long term and is one of the cheapest banks on the market but the new CEO is not giving me too much confidence in the stock short term.


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## Awesomandy (25 October 2007)

profithunter said:


> Hi Julia,
> 
> When I said 'run hard' I was talking from a short term perspective ie the last few weeks.  ANZ has run from $28 to an intra day high of $31.61 yesterday over a few weeks and in my view was primed for a pull back.  It still offers good value long term and is one of the cheapest banks on the market but the new CEO is not giving me too much confidence in the stock short term.




Yeah... not much confidence there, and ANZ has signalled that they might consider raising interest rates independently. That surely is not a good sign.


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## Kauri (26 October 2007)

Garpal Gumnut said:


> I posted the chart on the Elliot Wave thread Kauri, do you think that technically the 4th wave may break down at this stage?
> 
> gg



 Hi Garpal,
         I'm still feeling my way with E/W so treat my posts accordingly.  
  The minor W4 I was/am looking at, although suspiciously out of proportion to the corresponding W2, could still fall further and be valid. Also a point worth considering is the W1orA is the same length as the last up wave...could be a W3orC??.
         I'm also still on training wheels when it comes to VSA but it might be a possible scenario unfolding that yesterdays action on very high vol might be what they call capitulation, and todays action, early as it is, just may play out to be stopping vol/start of basing?? the vol today is already higher than normal, will have to wait and see what the punters close it at.
     Now you will be as confused as I am   
 Cheers
..........Kauri


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## Julia (26 October 2007)

profithunter said:


> Hi Julia,
> 
> When I said 'run hard' I was talking from a short term perspective ie the last few weeks.  ANZ has run from $28 to an intra day high of $31.61 yesterday over a few weeks and in my view was primed for a pull back.  It still offers good value long term and is one of the cheapest banks on the market but the new CEO is not giving me too much confidence in the stock short term.




OK, I see.  I think that although the result was of itself pretty good, it was nonetheless not as good as analysts had been expecting.  

I agree with your comments about the new CEO.  Here is a link to Air Weekly which gives a realistic assessment of ANZ's current situation.  Let's hope the new CEO soon finds his feet and begins to generate the same sort of confidence that John McFarlane did.

http://www.aireview.com.au/index.php?act=view&catid=8&id=7087&setSub=1


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## profithunter (30 October 2007)

Julia said:


> OK, I see.  I think that although the result was of itself pretty good, it was nonetheless not as good as analysts had been expecting.
> 
> I agree with your comments about the new CEO.  Here is a link to Air Weekly which gives a realistic assessment of ANZ's current situation.  Let's hope the new CEO soon finds his feet and begins to generate the same sort of confidence that John McFarlane did.
> 
> http://www.aireview.com.au/index.php?act=view&catid=8&id=7087&setSub=1




Apparently a number of strong internal candidates were overlooked for the CEO position.  I hope the board has made the right choice.  I closed out my short today...next on the watchlist is NAB, it reports early next month.


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## Rainmaker2000 (30 October 2007)

Next few years will be interesting for banks........competition is intensifying coupled with a higher rate environment.....this has been coming for a while and the big banks will still make reasonable single digit growth.........the key will be when the 'miracle' Aussie economy has a bad year which it hasn't for what 16, 17 years......as banks are assetless leaches off the broader prosperity, it will be interesting when Aussies discover wages are not increasing and 7 X average earnings is just too much to pay for their own home.....With the Aussie stock index now made up of banks and mining companies, I just can't wait for the storm to come..disclosure: I own about 29 Nab shares.hehe


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## Kauri (20 December 2007)

Just heard a rumour that a Chinese investor has taken a large position in ANZ... has anyone else heard anything??
Cheers
.........Kauri


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## grace (20 December 2007)

Kauri said:


> Just heard a rumour that a Chinese investor has taken a large position in ANZ... has anyone else heard anything??
> Cheers
> .........Kauri



Yes, look on business spectator website.  Chinese fund has bought about 1% or 1/2 bill dollars worth.  I don't know how to put in link.


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## overule (20 December 2007)

if so why there's no reaction to the news ? 
ANZ is so down!!!  I thought we will be having somekind of chritmas rally


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## tronic72 (20 December 2007)

Rainmaker2000 said:


> Next few years will be interesting for banks........competition is intensifying coupled with a higher rate environment.....this has been coming for a while and the big banks will still make reasonable single digit growth.........the key will be when the 'miracle' Aussie economy has a bad year which it hasn't for what 16, 17 years......as banks are assetless leaches off the broader prosperity, it will be interesting when Aussies discover wages are not increasing and 7 X average earnings is just too much to pay for their own home.....With the Aussie stock index now made up of banks and mining companies, I just can't wait for the storm to come..disclosure: I own about 29 Nab shares.hehe




Yes, a lot of what you've said is true. 

On the other hand, many of their competitors are in big trouble. Just look at the the sub-prime issue currently going on. This could have a huge positive effect on our banks as they tend to be well insulated. 

Just look at Centro, the main reason it's in such trouble is the lenders it had access to until recently have said NO MORE.


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## 2020hindsight (29 December 2007)

just for the record 
here's ANZ for the last 2 years (High Low Close) + averages 
Also ANZ vs XAO for last 12 months (candlestix) + ditto (percent indicates relative preformance campared to datum of XAO)

PS I plan to do this to a few stocks - please feel free to either 
a) help out and divvy the job up between a few of us
b) suggest amendments to graphs
c) request some stocks you'd like me to post (maybe PM me)
d) tell me it's not necessary lol (or too wasteful of memory maybe?)


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## Miner (29 December 2007)

2020hindsight said:


> just for the record
> here's ANZ for the last 2 years (High Low Close) + averages
> Also ANZ vs XAO for last 12 months (candlestix) + ditto (percent indicates relative preformance campared to datum of XAO)
> 
> ...




Good stuff
For the Non Techys and failed in Mathematics like me. Please tell  what is the one line interpretation of the big graphs ? ANZ is a buy or sell proposition now ?

Regards


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## vishalt (30 December 2007)

That graph, along with NAB's and SGB's tell you that those 3 majors have finished the year flat or weak while WBC and CBA have powered ahead. 

It seems that sub-prime debacle really clamped down on the banking sector gains while siphoning confidence as well!

ANZ particularly though has to be by far one of the most painful stocks to hold, it only had 2 good rallies this year lol. But hey its cheap and if you believe in Mike Smith then ANZ may shine in the next couple of years, it still has a sexy dividend and ranges nicely.


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## brettc4 (3 January 2008)

I have been doing a little bit of FA against ANZ.  Below is a screen shot of the data I am using care of Comsec.

Basically, the result is ANZ has an ROE of 18.4%, ans EPS growth compounded at 9.5% over 7 years.

What is a good ROE and EPS growth for a company, and what is a good ROE and EPS Growth for a bank?


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## treefrog (3 January 2008)

brett

only potential problen I see with your analysis is that covers a period of exceptional growth for the market generally and it is distictly possible for ANZ to enter a period of negative growth which it has currently started since it reached a 10year high late april 07 (31.50) and retraced then up again to the same level and then fell to complete a double top (DT) in the last few weeks.

Technically the uptrend has finished but whether it resumes, consolidates, (sideways) or retraces to a significant support level such as 24.60 or even 23.00 over the mext few months is speculation but the banking sector is under quite a bit of negative pressure atm - the XFJ sector weekly uptrend is still intact (just) but was down 1.9% today 

but everyone must make their own decissions


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## dhukka (18 February 2008)

Here we go, get ready for more of this type of news as the year wears on. Anyone who thinks Aussie banks are immune from global credit market turmoil will need to adjust their expectations. The excerpt below is from ANZ's trading update released today.



> *Credit Quality*
> 
> The turmoil in global financial markets has impacted a small number of customers and counterparties which is likely to result in higher credit costs.
> 
> ...


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## grace (18 February 2008)

You know it's funny, I've got some speculative shares which have not lost as much as my ANZ holding over the past 3 months!  ANZ is my worst performing share today!


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## Moneybags (18 February 2008)

I hear ya Grace, what makes it worse is this was a recommendation from my broker some time back......makes you wonder. My speccies holding up rather well also.

MB


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## Kimosabi (18 February 2008)

dhukka said:


> Here we go, get ready for more of this type of news as the year wears on. Anyone who thinks Aussie banks are immune from global credit market turmoil will need to adjust their expectations. The excerpt below is from ANZ's trading update released today.



It's only a matter of time before this stuff starts slamming hard into Real Estate, better hold on tight kiddies, this bubble pop is going to be a real doozy...


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## numbercruncher (18 February 2008)

Yup, rising interest rates = rising defaults = banks get smashed, as bearish as I am, all things considered I am surprised how much the banks have tanked already in absence of any substantial proof of a realestate bust, ala rest of the world style 

One would assume the market is partially pricing in this possibility on top of all the other problems related to the global credit crunch !


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## jersey10 (18 February 2008)

Kimosabi said:


> It's only a matter of time before this stuff starts slamming hard into Real Estate, better hold on tight kiddies, this bubble pop is going to be a real doozy...




Are you saying you think house prices are going to experience a crash / correction similar to what the sharemarket has over the last 6 weeks??


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## nomore4s (18 February 2008)

jersey10 said:


> Are you saying you think house prices are going to experience a crash / correction similar to what the sharemarket has over the last 6 weeks??




lol, both Kimosabi & NC have been calling a real estate crash for as long as I can recall:.

While I'm somewhat bearish on RE atm I'm nowhere near as enthusiatic about it as those 2, lol. There are a lot of things to play out yet imo, but I do think the top of the RE market has been reached for awhile and it looks like the stockmarket is pricing alot more risk into the banks atm.


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## vishalt (18 February 2008)

I never thought on my life that I would see the banks at these prices again. 

Girls, 

I am going shopping.


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## grace (18 February 2008)

vishalt said:


> I never thought on my life that I would see the banks at these prices again.
> 
> Girls,
> 
> I am going shopping.




Why don't you wait until they have the red light sale?  I don't think we have seen the end of the slaying of banks yet.  Wait until we have our real estate correction and then go shopping!


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## refined silver (19 February 2008)

vishalt said:


> I never thought on my life that I would see the banks at these prices again.
> 
> Girls,
> 
> I am going shopping.




Eeerh ladies, maybe a bit of caution is in order. 

The ANZ is in trouble with Credit Default Swaps an OTC derivative which according to the Bank of International Settlements (BIS) is a major component of the more than $500 TRILLION of unregulated, non-clearing house guaranteed, private contracts and therefore without a market, pile of toxic OTC derivatives. So far the first part of the pile the CDOs and sub-prime derivatives have hit the fan, looks like the second much larger pile might be starting to shake. 

The chart below shows the behind the scenes borrowing going on right now in the financial sector. Compare it to 1929, 1974, 1987, 2000, etc...


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## MRC & Co (19 February 2008)

Is that graph in real or nominal monetary terms?

Dare I say, the nature of compounding inflation since around 1922, that $3bil (around) would now be larger than the current $45bil.  Just to put a bit of context into the graph.


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## Miner (19 February 2008)

Fantastic Graph
Dumb question : what was the value of $4 Billion in 1920 would be today ?
What was the gold price in 1920 compared to today?
Graphs must be adjusted in real price term. I hope the US treasury is not usng the same graph to explain their money supply and M1, M2 AND M3.
Probably ANZ will go down further on Tuesday. Nevertheless today's price has been one of the best since 18 months.

Cheers


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## refined silver (19 February 2008)

MRC & Co said:


> Is that graph in real or nominal monetary terms?
> 
> Dare I say, the nature of compounding inflation since around 1922, that $3bil (around) would now be larger than the current $45bil.  Just to put a bit of context into the graph.




I assume it's not adjusted for inflation. 

$3b in 1922 adjusted for inflation = $38.5b in 2008. http://woodrow.mpls.frb.fed.us/research/data/us/calc/  (Fed Bank of Missouri inflation calculator.)

Remember though that in the Great Depression over 5,000 banks went bust!! 

Compare the graph to more recent events 1974, 1987, 1998, 2000, 9/11 etc and then remember the current figure shown on the graph is still growing as we keep getting new writedowns every day, (eg today Northern Rock was nationalised in the UK meaning effectively they are insolvent) and you can see we are not looking at your common garden variety business cycle downturn.


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## MRC & Co (19 February 2008)

No doubt, the graph is troubling.  However, what growth has there been in money supply over the period?  

Economic growth has far superceeded inflation, hence we have seen huge real GDP growth figures over that period (just look around you).  So even after its adjusted for inflation, the amount of money in circulation is much higher than in the 1920s.  Man, this economic mumbo jumbo seems like a world away these days!  

Dont get me wrong, it isnt good, but I cannot see this "global crisis" hitting anywhere near the levels of the great depression.


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## So_Cynical (19 February 2008)

grace said:


> You know it's funny, I've got some speculative shares which have not lost as much as my ANZ holding over the past 3 months!  ANZ is my worst performing share today!



Yep top end of town getting hit...my gold specky watch lists are holding up ok
most of them anyway...great value in the banks ATM.

Never though i would be looking to buying into a bank....at some stage.


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## MRC & Co (19 February 2008)

So_Cynical said:


> Yep top end of town getting hit...my gold specky watch lists are holding up ok
> most of them anyway...great value in the banks ATM.
> 
> Never though i would be looking to buying into a bank....at some stage.




Banking sector getting hit (of course with a credit crunch scenario, this is the industry which is going to suffer most, with it then spilling over to the retail sector)!

Commodities are holding up a lot better!


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## refined silver (19 February 2008)

MRC & Co said:


> Dont get me wrong, it isnt good, but I cannot see this "global crisis" hitting anywhere near the levels of the great depression.




That might be an interesting quote to review in 6-12 months time.

People just don't get that OTC derivatives are in the hundreds of TRILLIONS and write offs so far are around $120b. All of these OTC derivatives are dependent on the balance sheet of the loser in the transaction. As soon as one can't pay, it unravels the huge loops of the daisy chain. 

We've barely begun.


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## MRC & Co (19 February 2008)

refined silver said:


> That might be an interesting quote to review in 6-12 months time.
> 
> We've barely begun.




We have just begun, I am also sure a lot more sh*t has to hit the fan, so to speak.

However, have you been to China lately?  Its growth is unbeleivable, some of the cities in China these days make New York look like its stuck in a time warp!  Buildings practically MADE of marble!  

The resources they will demand over the coming years are going to be unforseen.  As GDP rises, so does the demand for consumption exponentially and lets face it, they have a whole lot to grow yet.  India is also doing well.  Hate to sound cliche, but these two sleeping giants really do have us looking at an unforseen global phenomenon! 

Superannuation is expected to more than double over the next ten years (I beleive), thanks to the baby boomers.

We are going to see some huge fallout from this credit crunch, but its 10 years down the track and thereafter in which my worries belong, once properties and stocks start to be sold up wholesale in order to fund retirements and living habits of the rich.

Just my opinion, guess we will see over the coming years.  

But in what sense do you beleive this will be worse than the great depression?  In that it will hit stockmarket indicies by a larger %?  Or that we will end up with people begging for jobs at the gate of the local wharf and mealtickets will become a common occurance once more?


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## refined silver (19 February 2008)

Hi MRC & Co, 

I agree with the India and China bit, and that they will keep growing despite world financial system convulsions. Commodities will keep going up, but with volatility. 

I see the depression scenario in a financial system melt down due to unmitigated greed, fraud, and foolishness in the lending/finance sector. There is no way to stop the derivative melt down, and the numbers just defy imagination. That means many entities going belly-up in a domino chain. It means unemployment and many wiped out investments. It means Central Banks feverishly pumping money into the system but effectively only monetising bankrupcy and insolvency, resulting in fierce real world inflation not in assets like houses which is nice, but in food, energy, commodities which squeeze the poor lower and middle classes even harder. These lumpen masses then have wages virtually capped by outsourcing to developing world countries like the said China and India meaning a serious drop in living standards. You have the end of the US empire and and a return to the 1500s where China etc was as advanced and wealthy as Europe. 

We're probably getting off the thread topic, but to get back on it again, its not good news for financial institutions.


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## MRC & Co (19 February 2008)

Yes, I think we are getting a bit off topic and I think the emergence of China was inevitable anyways.  South Korea did it, as did Japan, with the population of China, it will take longer, but its on the cards.

I also agree with the rest of what you said, they tried to contain the banking crisis within the industry but it has well and truly spilt over to the rest of the economy.  Falling IR only increases the probability of stagflation, which is pretty much the worst possible scenario to economists, dare I say, worse than Japans liquidity trap.

Only time will tell.  Back to ANZ, SELL SELL SELL!


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## ROE (19 February 2008)

From what I can read.. ANZ is conditioning investors for bad times ahead and to soften the hammer on share price if and when bad news start to emerge.

maybe banking sector right now have  Cockroach eggs.
Sooner or later that egg will hatch and I thinking they all playing a waiting to see who come out first with the Cockroach.

When you spot one Cockroach, there are more to come 

my 2 cents


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## ROE (19 February 2008)

Introducing Monoline to the cast

"The traditional role of monoline insurers was to rent their high credit rating to bond issuers in return for a fee. However, a number of them, including ACA, started insuring more complex products like CDSs (credit default swaps) and the other recent bogey, CDOs (collateralised debt obligations), and they have been hard hit by the falling value of those products."


http://www.news.com.au/business/story/0,23636,23238289-462,00.html


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## numbercruncher (19 February 2008)

I like this line from the article, Just who can you trust , you dont know whos on the hook and  hiding what anymore!



> A spokesman for NAB, which is Australia's second-largest lender after the Commonweath, *refused* to confirm whether the bank had monoline exposure.




One would have to assume exposure when one refuses to confirm or deny.


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## vishalt (19 February 2008)

grace said:


> Why don't you wait until they have the red light sale?  I don't think we have seen the end of the slaying of banks yet.  Wait until we have our real estate correction and then go shopping!



Because picking bottoms is impossible, but buying in the red is much better than buying in the green and I'll just buy more if it goes down more, not putting all my capital in. 

Bought Westpac today


----------



## PhoenixXx (21 February 2008)

I don't think we would see any daylight soon. bad news keep on rolling. Even black Tuesday turned out to be better than worse...



> Aussie stocks bounce back; ANZ falls
> 
> Thursday February 21, 2008, 11:24 am
> (Adds ANZ, updates indexes)
> ...


----------



## mfsperth (20 November 2008)

*ANZ*

ANZ has been given a guarantee by the taxpayers of Australia through the government to stabilise it.

It is a poor repayment for this for ANZ to start sacking staff and aggravating the economic and welfare problems.


----------



## sammy84 (20 November 2008)

ANZ is in day 5 of its 15 day DRP period. It seems this has sent the price heavily downward, even when other banks have had up days. Is this a good period to buy in? Peoples thoughts would be appreciated?


----------



## johenmo (21 November 2008)

Sammy - someone I know who has made oodles of $ via shares bought some a while back.  I think he wishes he'd waited.

I'm interested but am waiting.  Maybe I won't buy any at all in the end.  More writedown disclosures will only make people more wary.

You might make some $ S/Term trading - it depends on what your plan is.


----------



## Garpal Gumnut (28 December 2008)

ANZ is an interesting stock technically.

It was in a classic technical trading range from last August when it fell to its recent lows.

It is now in an ascending triangle, after a trading range one of the best validated technical signals.

Its volume has increased over the last few weeks.

I would not be surprised to see it challenge the $20 mark.

gg

a chart is enclosed.


----------



## Vlad (29 January 2009)

ANZ back over $13, but will it last?

Keen to increase my portfolio but the outlook for all banks looks bleak to me.

ANZ also have the Opes Prime issue to contend with.


----------



## wonderrman (29 January 2009)

> ANZ also have the Opes Prime issue to contend with.




And the issue of more businesses not being able to pay their dues. If we go through a bad recession it will obviously get worse for the banks. If you really want to buy the banks I would sit around and wait a bit longer. Common sense don't you think?


----------



## Vlad (29 January 2009)

Wonderrman,

Yes I agree, I think banks will get worse before they get better.  Also thinking Nationalization of banks may be an option taken.  Seriously considered in UK, US and elsewhere.

Then what price banks!!!


----------



## sammy84 (29 January 2009)

Vlad said:


> Wonderrman,
> 
> Yes I agree, I think banks will get worse before they get better.  Also thinking Nationalization of banks may be an option taken.  Seriously considered in UK, US and elsewhere.
> 
> Then what price banks!!!




Nationalization is a long way away. Tier 1 capital ratios are very high and the risk exposure of our banks is very different. I would worry about dividends being reduced but not nationalization.


----------



## wonderrman (29 January 2009)

sammy84 said:


> Nationalization is a long way away. Tier 1 capital ratios are very high and the risk exposure of our banks is very different. I would worry about dividends being reduced but not nationalization.




I don't think there is a chance of nationalization in Aus. Div's being cut is a big possibility though according to the brokerage community.

http://business.theage.com.au/business/big-four-tipped-to-slash-fat-dividends-20090129-7suc.html


----------



## oldblue (30 January 2009)

Well of course divs are likely to be cut!

The banks are currently trading on an historical yield of about twice what they did in " normal" times. A 50% cut would only see them back to "normal" which in these times of low interest rates would look like a very attractive yield, particularly if divs remain largely franked.

I'll be buying more on any pronounced, panicky weakness.


----------



## Miner (17 February 2009)

oldblue said:


> Well of course divs are likely to be cut!
> 
> The banks are currently trading on an historical yield of about twice what they did in " normal" times. A 50% cut would only see them back to "normal" which in these times of low interest rates would look like a very attractive yield, particularly if divs remain largely franked.
> 
> I'll be buying more on any pronounced, panicky weakness.




Share Tips as reported in Compare Shares - Has any one to comment about a bold SELL recommendation against ANZ

How far should it go then ? 

For those who have not read here u go

Broker Stock Recommendations February 16 – 6 to BUY, 6 to SELL and 6 to  

Russell Krause
NOVUS CAPITAL

*SELL RECOMMENDATIONS*

ANZ Bank (ANZ)

The ANZ has raised significant money through bond issues, but the market soon expects a big equity raising. We expect more write-downs, and ANZ may be involved in protracted litigation over its role in the Opes Prime disaster. A slowing economy is hurting small business and this could reduce ANZ’s profits. Dividends could be cut.


----------



## Family_Guy (17 February 2009)

Any brokers been right this year.......yet?? How about this recommendation?



Broker Stock Recommendations February 17 – 6 to BUY, 6 to SELL and 6 to

Family Guy
HOUSE CAPITAL

BUY RECOMMENDATIONS

ANZ Bank (ANZ)

The ANZ has raised significant money through bond issues, but the market soon expects a big equity raising, but we can't be sure. We expect a couple of write-downs, nothing too serious, just a few odd million $, and ANZ may be involved in protracted litigation over its role in the Opes Prime disaster, but then again it may not. A slowing economy is hurting small business and this could reduce ANZ’s profits, but then again it might not. Dividends could be cut, or maybe they won't. And Rudd is about to give most Australians some more cash and while this won't directly stay in Australia, over 55% of it will end up in the coffers of Australias leading poker machine owners and 87% of those businesses bank with the ANZ. And hey, they are just about to make an extra $200mil a year when the new ATM charges start in just 2 weeks time and while you can't do nuthin about it, you may as well jump on board and reap the rewards of a banking system that only looks after one thing.......it's share holders.


----------



## Miner (17 February 2009)

Family_Guy said:


> Any brokers been right this year.......yet?? How about this recommendation?
> 
> 
> 
> ...





Thanks Family Guy for giving a 180 degree opposite recommendation extracted from House Capital 

That is really interesting and the fundamental question remains - why should a broker provide accurate information to rest of the market who have not paid fees for their research.

I am now totally confused myself if  to keep ANZ , buy more or sell  existing ones ? My action will take the average and it comes to zero - Do nothing.


Let us see how the market behaves in next 10 minutes.


----------



## dirty_harry (17 February 2009)

Thanks for publishing this. Could give me an ulcer. 
It's clear that the level of fear is stratospheric, so is it time to be greedy? 

> 14% dividend with franking included. Imagine what the SP upside is if they can hold it.


----------



## Vlad (17 February 2009)

If ANZ does not make a proper settlement with the guys who lost out with OPES and if it does go to court, the potential loss to ANZ could be $$billions especially if they are forced to buy back on market the shares they sold potentially illegally.

Imagine buying back 40 Million SLA shares alone on market??? Priceless.

ANZ had bad legal advice when it acted on OPES and will pay.  If lucky it  will get away with a commercial settlement if it makes a decent offer. Otherwise it will drag through the courts and some of the litigants have serious money to follow it through.


----------



## dirty_harry (17 February 2009)

Vlad said:


> If ANZ does not make a proper settlement with the guys who lost out with OPES and if it does go to court, the potential loss to ANZ could be $$billions especially if they are forced to buy back on market the shares they sold potentially illegally.
> 
> Imagine buying back 40 Million SLA shares alone on market??? Priceless.
> 
> ANZ had bad legal advice when it acted on OPES and will pay.  If lucky it  will get away with a commercial settlement if it makes a decent offer. Otherwise it will drag through the courts and some of the litigants have serious money to follow it through.




I don't believe billions, the shares were only around a few hundred million. Most are much lower now anyway even if they did have to buy them back. The judgements have been in the bank's favour so far. When you think about it the clients signed off market transfers, i.e. they transferred ownership of their shares to Opes. From that point on they no longer owned them. Opes had made a promise to pay them back one day on request, nothing more than that. So clients were conned by Opes, not the banks. Opes clients had no agreement with the banks.


----------



## Miner (17 February 2009)

dirty_harry said:


> I don't believe billions, the shares were only around a few hundred million. Most are much lower now anyway even if they did have to buy them back. The judgements have been in the bank's favour so far. When you think about it the clients signed off market transfers, i.e. they transferred ownership of their shares to Opes. From that point on they no longer owned them. Opes had made a promise to pay them back one day on request, nothing more than that. So clients were conned by Opes, not the banks. Opes clients had no agreement with the banks.




Hypothetically the cost to settle the whole issue by  ANZ say $500 M.

Assume we are setting the scene in Congo, India or Indonesia and how could a company like ANZ can resolve such issues


Charity Fund organised by the relevant prosecution authority's nearest family member : Donation $200,000
Joe Dick Charity organisation for beraved soldiers - another $100 K
Political Leader's Fund Generation $2 M (to group of few)
Charity Show sponsorship $1 M
Children Scholarship to relevant community organisations $200K
Welfare and
philonthropical  and public sentiment advertisement in leading media $2 M
Miscellaneous Funding Donation $1 M

Background legal discussions $20 M to keep Plan B ready

Total expenditure is : $26.5 M about 5% of the total potential cost) has the potential to get the  $500 M over 

(Just tongue and cheek how could such big cost of litigation possibly can be resolved by companies like ANZ ) 

But the problem in reality  is we are in Australia and ANZ is an Australian company. So they have to keep allowance for bad expenditure to pay out OPES affected parties.

disclaimer : I do hold ANZ


----------



## Vlad (17 February 2009)

Dirty Harry,

There have been NO judgments in ANZ's favor.  What Finkelstein said was a properly made AMSLA was valid.  He did not say the AMSLA between OPES/ANZ and its clients was valid.  That is to be tested in court.  And ANZ's   case is not strong.  Brochure after brochure tells clients they retain beneficial ownership!!!

In fact recent judgments in related cases have made ANZ's case very shaky.  In any case ANZ's actions before OPES fall and immediately after are in serious doubt.  ANZ may have kept an insolvent entity trading until it strengthened its position.  Naughty naughty. 

Yes I agree, if you want to buy 10000 shares of SLA tomorrow at 14 cents, no problem.  But if you want to buy 40M, I suggest people will be holding out for and getting up to $4.  Repeat that on almost 30% of the Australian stock market and ANZ is cash strapped.

I am looking at buying into ANZ but I think it will go a lot lower yet.  Then I will buy big!!!


----------



## dirty_harry (17 February 2009)

Vlad, hang on a minute lets work out who is responsible for what.

- the brochures were published by Opes not by the banks.
- determining whether a company is solvent or should cease trading is the responsibility of the directors, ie Opes directors. Whether a bank calls in it's loans or not is a seperate process and is the banks decision based on risk management, etc.
- the banks were Opes financers. ie they loaned money to Opes against collateral owned by Opes but had no agreement with Opes clients. Therefore clients have no recourse against the banks, but against Opes. That's my understanding at least.


----------



## Vlad (18 February 2009)

Nonetheless ANZ have put an offer on the table!!  They did not do that because they are a benevolent agency!!


----------



## Julia (26 February 2009)

ANZ is the first of the big banks to say they will be cutting the dividend.
So far no details of how much.


----------



## dhukka (26 February 2009)

Julia said:


> ANZ is the first of the big banks to say they will be cutting the dividend.
> So far no details of how much.




Julia, this is from the announcement:

ANZ’s proforma tier one capital ratio at the end of January 2009 was 8.4%.** Organic capital generation will be further strengthened through the adoption of a more appropriate dividend policy for the current conditions with* the dividend for 2009 expected to be reduced by around 25% and to be fully franked*.


----------



## vincent191 (26 February 2009)

I expect the other banks to follow. My reasons are, the big 4 are all trading in the same market, selling the same products (more or less) and experiencing the same turmoil, why should they be any different? Maybe the only difference is the % cut. 

On a different subject have you all notice that the CBA is now a substainal shareholder in Suncorp???  Maybe ANZ had walked away from SUN for good??


----------



## rustyheela (27 February 2009)

divvy cut of 25%  = yield of 8%. better than bucks under matress or wot their interest rates are!!! would think most of downside risk priced in?


----------



## Julia (27 February 2009)

dhukka said:


> Julia, this is from the announcement:
> 
> ANZ’s proforma tier one capital ratio at the end of January 2009 was 8.4%.** Organic capital generation will be further strengthened through the adoption of a more appropriate dividend policy for the current conditions with* the dividend for 2009 expected to be reduced by around 25% and to be fully franked*.



Thanks Dhukka.  



rustyheela said:


> divvy cut of 25%  = yield of 8%. better than bucks under matress or wot their interest rates are!!! would think most of downside risk priced in?



Rustyheela 402961:  why do you think most of the downside risk is already priced in?


----------



## grace (28 February 2009)

rustyheela said:


> divvy cut of 25%  = yield of 8%. better than bucks under matress or wot their interest rates are!!! would think most of downside risk priced in?




ANZ have the largest exposure of all Australian Banks to NZ.  25% of net profit derived in NZ.  Major property collapse + economy collapse in NZ is not going to be pretty for ANZ!

Then we have lots of bad debts to come in Australia.  Will be very difficult for our banks here,  but of course, nothing like the US.

I guess you have to work out if all of this is factored into the share price already.

Disclosure:  was once a holder of ANZ shares, but I sold out of all my Bank stocks at least a year ago.


----------



## tigerboi (28 February 2009)

*Re: ANZEADSET THIEVES,DONT GIVE THEM YOUR SUPER*

Well i know this much about ANZ they are shameless thieves(i bank & trade with them but super...)

my usual super is the transport workers union but im not a member,i had a small amount in the anz/ing which i forgot about...in 14 months they took about 45% in fees,i transferred the rest into my industry super...deadset mongrels & they didnt want to at first,i said ill move the rest if you dont get your ring into gear.

lesson learnt...always use an industry fund not these retail thieves...TB


----------



## Abcguy (25 March 2009)

Hey guys. What are your opinions on all this trouble with BrisConnections? If it defaults is this going to hurt ANZ and its stock price?


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## gavmit63 (29 April 2009)

Does anyone else feel that the level of spin coming from ANZ has lifted a notch or two since Mike Smith took the helm. Why is it that the bank is suddenly pointing to 'Underlying Profit' as a measure of success when previously they have pointed to 'Cash Profit'? The fact that 'Underlying Profit' is up 4% and 'Cash Profit' is down 43% (quoted from Business Day) may have something to do with it. Do they really think they can pull the wool over our eyes and get away with it?

Disclosure. I own ANZ shares.


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## dhukka (29 April 2009)

gavmit63 said:


> Does anyone else feel that the level of spin coming from ANZ has lifted a notch or two since Mike Smith took the helm. Why is it that the bank is suddenly pointing to 'Underlying Profit' as a measure of success when previously they have pointed to 'Cash Profit'? The fact that 'Underlying Profit' is up 4% and 'Cash Profit' is down 43% (quoted from Business Day) may have something to do with it. Do they really think they can pull the wool over our eyes and get away with it?
> 
> Disclosure. I own ANZ shares.




Yep quite sad really. Actually cash eps was down *-49%* and they were a little light on provisions IMO, otherwise it would have looked worse. However they admitted that provisions will need to be higher in the next 18 months. In fact it would be foolish to suggest otherwise given that non-performing loans are getting worse at an accelerating rate.


----------



## Moneybags (29 April 2009)

Very disappointing indeed, and the market thinks so too.......well and truly smacked down today. Sure hope WBC can give a better report tomorrow.

I have shares in both.......for now at least.

MB


----------



## gavmit63 (1 May 2009)

Interesting article on Crikey.com. It seems I wasn't alone in thinking ANZ's reporting of their half year result was an exercise in spin. http://www.crikey.com.au/2009/04/29/anz-buries-cash-profit-as-banks-spin-the-bad-times/


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## alphaman (1 May 2009)

It's not just banks. Every company spins. I have not read a report that doesn't spin. It's an integral part of the sharemarket game.


----------



## gavmit63 (1 May 2009)

I don't disagree alphaman, it just seems a bit more blatant than most efforts. Call me a cynic but I wonder upon what figure will Mike Smith get his bonus based upon? Net Profit, Underlying Profit or Cash Profit?


----------



## Julia (1 May 2009)

gavmit63 said:


> Interesting article on Crikey.com. It seems I wasn't alone in thinking ANZ's reporting of their half year result was an exercise in spin. http://www.crikey.com.au/2009/04/29/anz-buries-cash-profit-as-banks-spin-the-bad-times/



Comment on this in today's ":Money Morning" where the journalist remarked that even seasoned banking analysts went away scratching their heads.
Wonder how all those who bought banking stocks for their yield are feeling!


----------



## nomore4s (1 May 2009)

Julia said:


> Wonder how all those who bought banking stocks for their yield are feeling!




Probably okay if they brought @ $12.50ish, also consider the d/e will come back up as this crisis eases off. But the ANZ looks to be the worst of the big 4 atm.

I'm not saying the banks are a good buy but alot of it depends on your point of view.


----------



## Wysiwyg (1 May 2009)

> Wonder how all those who bought banking stocks for their yield are feeling!





> Probably okay if they brought @ $12.50ish, also consider the d/e will come back up as this crisis eases off. But the ANZ looks to be the worst of the big 4 atm.




Yes a little bit of forward thought goes a long way though a protracted bear market is still on the cards.


----------



## dhukka (5 May 2009)

Interesting story on Contrarian Investors News about ANZ's exposure as a counter-party to CDS contracts with a failed entity. 

*SEC Info- ANZ is counterparty of Syncora Holdings Ltd default in CDS*


----------



## makingmoney (5 May 2009)

i recently started accumulating anz..with the current record date coming up on the 13th may..i know its reduced dividend of 25%..But my personal view on balancing my portfolio with bank stocks....like to see whats ppls opinion's on anz?


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## bonkerrs (7 May 2009)

I'm a total newbie to the whole shares business. Please help me learn - what does the announcement mean in laymen's term? And what is your opinion on how it will effect the share price?


----------



## oldblue (7 May 2009)

It's appears to be a statutory requirement related to restrictions on companies dealing in their own shares.
As you can see from the miniscule number of shares involved, it is extremely unlikely to have any effect on the SP!



Disc: Holding ANZ.


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## Viginti (13 May 2009)

bonkerrs said:


> I'm a total newbie to the whole shares business. Please help me learn - what does the announcement mean in laymen's term? And what is your opinion on how it will effect the share price?




These products are both protected equity products offered by the ANZ Margin Lending business.  Under regulations, ANZ are required to disclose any put options in place for their own shares, which is what they have done here.  The put options are used as part of the equity protection.

These options will relate to ANZ clients who have ANZ shares in their APEP portfolio.

Overall, no impact on their SP at all.


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## clayton4115 (13 May 2009)

im quite bearish on this stock, i sold out at $15.75, some support looks at $15.50 at this stage and resistance at 17.50


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## bonkerrs (13 May 2009)

Thanks viginti.

I keep getting an error message. Why does my post have to be more then 100 characters?


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## prawn_86 (13 May 2009)

bonkerrs said:


> Thanks viginti.
> 
> I keep getting an error message. Why does my post have to be more then 100 characters?




Posts have to be more than 100 characters to avoid low content posts or ramping. While this can be annoying occasionally when you simply want to say thanks, it saves us moderators a lot of time. Any posts that are 'padded' to make up 100 char are removed. More info here:
https://www.aussiestockforums.com/forums/showthread.php?t=6661

Hope that helps

Prawn


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## ROE (13 May 2009)

clayton4115 said:


> im quite bearish on this stock, i sold out at $15.75, some support looks at $15.50 at this stage and resistance at 17.50




This company has the habit of lending to company that keep collapsing..they seem to be in bed with most of the collapsed company  ... lately Timbercorp and Auscorp 

I'm bearish on all banks stocks, their days of reckoning is not yet here...

all of them highly leverage, highly exposed to a lot of stuff that yet to happen...Dig a bit deeper you may not like what you see


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## oldblue (14 May 2009)

Well, of course the banks are highly leveraged, that's the nature of the game but the Australian banks, at least the big four, are moderately leveraged and well capitalised by international standards. They rate in the top grades world banking-wise and are still profitable and paying good divs.

Certainly there'll be continuing high levels of bad debts for months, probably years yet but the four pillars are well provisioned for this and will continue to increase these amounts.

Wouldn't have to get much cheaper to be good buying, IMO.


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## investorpaul (14 May 2009)

ROE said:


> This company has the habit of lending to company that keep collapsing..they seem to be in bed with most of the collapsed company  ... lately Timbercorp and Auscorp
> 
> I'm bearish on all banks stocks, their days of reckoning is not yet here...
> 
> all of them highly leverage, highly exposed to a lot of stuff that yet to happen...Dig a bit deeper you may not like what you see




If only we could short them, not long now though (May 31) until the short selling ban is hopefully lifted.

I have looked into ANZ as well, its on my watchlist to short once the ban is lifted


----------



## ROE (14 May 2009)

oldblue said:


> Well, of course the banks are highly leveraged, that's the nature of the game but the Australian banks, at least the big four, are moderately leveraged and well capitalised by international standards. They rate in the top grades world banking-wise and are still profitable and paying good divs.
> 
> Certainly there'll be continuing high levels of bad debts for months, probably years yet but the four pillars are well provisioned for this and will continue to increase these amounts.
> 
> Wouldn't have to get much cheaper to be good buying, IMO.




obviously you haven't done much research on Aussies banks, they are one of the most highly leverage in the WORLD...but good luck

Most international banks leverage around 20-25 times, you can find out the Aussie number for yourself or keep beleive the banks CEO and the RBA  or uncle Rudd about 4.5% growth in a few year....and I can show you the bed ANZ sleep with for CDS but I couldnt be bother

and if they are well capitalise why are they keep raising equity? it like hmm I got a lot of money
but I need to go to the bank to borrow to buy a car, it doesnt sit well with the word well capitalise
and your friends tell you you are telling porky about having lot of money 

or they raising equity because they know their day of reckoning are approaching and that may tipped them over if they don't keep sucking up more money from investors...and with all those raising your holding is diluted like hell so in the future expect much lower return and lower dividends


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## alphaman (14 May 2009)

Define leverage please. I've learned from the US that if you are creative enough, you can always find a leverage measure that looks good.


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## ROE (14 May 2009)

alphaman said:


> Define leverage please. I've learned from the US that if you are creative enough, you can always find a leverage measure that looks good.




Leverage you got $1 bucks you borrow $2 to buy stuff or in bank case got $1 bucks you lend out $30 bucks so a fraction of default wiped you out of your equity and if you got questionable CDS counter parties arrangement oh well you could end up losing $2 or $5 bucks instead of $1...

don't get confused with Derivatives and CDO, toxic debt and dodgy CDS counter parties
that what bring the other international banks down.
Well Derivatives is another tools for leverage but you get the idea.

Remember Westpac in the 80-90 (i was in primary school then)? but I like history so I can avoid repeating it... they are highly leverage and exposed to property, that brought it down to its knees...History May repeat itself


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## oldblue (15 May 2009)

obviously you haven't done much research on Aussies banks, they are one of the most highly leverage in the WORLD...but good luck
QUOTE.

I know that the ratings agencies have made some big mistakes recently but if the above opinion is fact, then their high ratings for the big four Aussie banks will stand out as their biggest boo-boo of all.
I don't think so.


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## The Owls (28 May 2009)

*ANZ 2.5 Billion Equity capital*

_ANZ today announced it had successfully raised $2.5 billion in new equity capital through the
placement of 173.6 million ANZ ordinary shares at the price of $14.40 per share._ 

What will this do to the share price in the next 3-6 months


----------



## dhukka (28 May 2009)

*Re: ANZ 2.5 Billion Equity capital*

Might want to put this in the ANZ thread. I'm surprised they managed to get less than a 10% discount to the current price, I have no idea where the price will be in 6 months, you might want to ask yourself whether you think this will be the last capital raising or will they need more down the track, I suspect it will be the latter.


----------



## Miner (28 May 2009)

*Re: ANZ 2.5 Billion Equity capital*

Hi People

I do not understand how come ANZ shares are on Offer at $10 and bid for $25.
If I want to book a price of $10 or $25 when the market price is at $15 the Commsec does not accept saying it is invalid price.

My question is how come then some fictitiously put a price of $10 and $25.

Any expert comment please ?
 Extract from ASX site

ANZ  15.570 (last traded on 27/5)     25.000 (Bid price)   10.000 (Offer price) time of *view at 6.59 AM WST  on 28 May 09 (before market ope*ns)


----------



## dhukka (28 May 2009)

*Re: ANZ 2.5 Billion Equity capital*



Miner said:


> Hi People
> 
> I do not understand how come ANZ shares are on Offer at $10 and bid for $25.
> If I want to book a price of $10 or $25 when the market price is at $15 the Commsec does not accept saying it is invalid price.
> ...




No expert, but for some reason comsuck won't allow you put in bids that are a long way (in percentage terms) from the last sale price. I don't know what that percentage is exactly but it can be annoying if you are trying to catch falling knives.


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## bonkerrs (28 May 2009)

"The issue was limited to institutions and *sophisticated *and professional investors" - ANZ Company Annoucement

This mean I get to participate? I'm a pretty sophisticated bloke!! But seriously, this mean the ordinary shareholders cannot participate? Don't know if I'd want to anyway but would like to know.


----------



## KurwaJegoMac (28 May 2009)

From theAustralian.news.com.au 



> ANZ said it has launched a fully underwritten institutional share placement to raise $2.5 billion, at $14.40 a share -- a 7.5 per cent discount to its last traded price of $15.57.* It will also raise up to $350 million through an offer to retail investors through a share purchase plan.*




I think from memory that the offer to retail investors is limited to $15,000 worth of shares.

Link to full article: 

http://www.theaustralian.news.com.au/business/story/0,28124,25545157-643,00.html


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## Bill M (28 May 2009)

bonkerrs said:


> "The issue was limited to institutions and *sophisticated *and professional investors" - ANZ Company Annoucement
> 
> This mean I get to participate? I'm a pretty sophisticated bloke!! But seriously, this mean the ordinary shareholders cannot participate? Don't know if I'd want to anyway but would like to know.




Yeah mate, you will get a bite. What I did with a couple of others is sell now at say $15.50 then buy the discounted stock through the share purchase plan. That way you pick up a $1 per share, just another way of getting something out of it for yourself.


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## bonkerrs (28 May 2009)

Bill M said:


> Yeah mate, you will get a bite. What I did with a couple of others is sell now at say $15.50 then buy the discounted stock through the share purchase plan. That way you pick up a $1 per share, just another way of getting something out of it for yourself.



GDay Bill, I just sent you a private message.


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## investorpaul (28 May 2009)

If your Short ANZ (via CFDs) is there any additional obligation when a capital raising is undertaken at a discount to mark. Eg like when the stock goes ex div if your short you pay the div?


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## bonkerrs (29 May 2009)

Going off the latest announcement from ANZ you are eligible for the SPP if you held shares on the 26 May 2009 and still have them until 7pm 1st June 2009. 

Am I right to say that you can sell off your shares on 2nd June onwards and still be entitled to participate?


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## Bill M (29 May 2009)

Bonkerrs, it is a bit like the ex dividend date and record date. Record date is of no relevance but if you buy before the ex dividend date then you will get the dividend.

In this case if you owned ANZ shares on the 26th then you should be ok for the SPP. That's the way it normally works and you can in fact sell those shares you owned on the 26th now. Today looks like a nice day to sell.

To be sure ring up the share registry and enquire. A phone call to make sure will give you piece of mind. Did you get my PM?


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## bonkerrs (29 May 2009)

Hi Bill. Thanks for the PM. I haven't replied, still digesting it... slowly. Will do soon.

I'll give the share registry a buzz today I think.

edit: Just got off the phone with the ANZ shares people, they don't know... seriously, she couldn't tell me if I sold my shares today if I'd still be eligible for the SPP.


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## Iggy_Pop (10 June 2009)

Does anyone know when the ANZ capital raising is going to happen? It should be coming up soon.


Iggy Pop


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## KurwaJegoMac (10 June 2009)

Details were released to the market today. You can find them at:

http://www.asx.com.au/asxpdf/20090610/pdf/31j00bps89hpm6.pdf


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## Bill M (10 June 2009)

The SPP opens on Thursday, 11 June 2009 and is scheduled to close at 5.00pm (Melbourne time) on Thursday, 2 July 2009.

It should be in the mail soon.


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## mrluva (11 June 2009)

Hi Guyz, I'm new in trading world and trading with comsec. I'm eligible to purchase SPP.(I bought ANZ on 20may and sold on 4june)
Can anyone please tell me if it is a gud idea to buy these.
ANZ says shares will be alloted on 13 July, 2009, does it mean if I buy shares tomorrow 11 June I will not be able to resell those untill 12 july?
and What is the procedure to sell those shares(its easy with comsec I just press sell button)
Should I buy as many I can first thing in the morning. I dont know if it is a gud opportunity or not.


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## MACCA350 (11 June 2009)

mrluva said:


> Hi Guyz, I'm new in trading world and trading with comsec. I'm eligible to purchase SPP.(I bought ANZ on 20may and sold on 4june)
> Can anyone please tell me if it is a gud idea to buy these.
> ANZ says shares will be alloted on 13 July, 2009, does it mean if I buy shares tomorrow 11 June I will not be able to resell those untill 12 july?



If you don't currently own ANZ shares you cannot sell the new shares until they have traded on the ASX


> and What is the procedure to sell those shares(its easy with comsec I just press sell button)



They should show up in your comsec account, so you can trade them as you usually do.


> Should I buy as many I can first thing in the morning. I dont know if it is a gud opportunity or not.



Chances are that the SP will fall when the new shares are traded, that's not to say they will though, as for a longer term view they should increase in value. On the other hand ANZ have been paying a decent dividend, so it's up to you to decide what is best for your needs.

cheers


----------



## ricee007 (11 June 2009)

mrluva said:


> Hi Guyz, I'm new in trading world and trading with comsec. I'm eligible to purchase SPP.(I bought ANZ on 20may and sold on 4june)
> Can anyone please tell me if it is a gud idea to buy these.
> ANZ says shares will be alloted on 13 July, 2009, does it mean if I buy shares tomorrow 11 June I will not be able to resell those untill 12 july?
> and What is the procedure to sell those shares(its easy with comsec I just press sell button)
> Should I buy as many I can first thing in the morning. I dont know if it is a gud opportunity or not.



You have until the 2nd July to make up your mind.

You can wait a couple of weeks to see what the share price does, if it falls to, say, $10... you probably wouldn't want to take up the SPP. If it rises to, say, $30, you would be an idiot if you didn't. There is no need to rush out tomorrow morning... spend a week or two researching and learning.

If shares are alloted 13th July, in theory, you won't be able to trade them till the 13th July, but, then will be able to do so just using Commsec like you would normally. In practise, anytime from the 6th July you *may* be able to sell them.... depends if it's your lucky day or not.

In your post, you specifically asked for financial advice multiple times, we are not allowed to give you financial advice.
"Can anyone please tell me if it is a gud idea to buy these." Is illegal for most people on this forum to answer, and against the forum rules for anyone on this forum to answer. A better way to get the same answer, is to ask for our thoughts on the SPP.... not what we recommend you do.

As to my thoughts on the SPP... MAK, CBA, MQG all went up after their SPP... I think this will be a good buy, but, despite being eligible, I won't be participating due to wanting to save my money for a combination, or one of:
MAK SPP
Putting money into super for the co-contribution bonus.
BEPPA

Having said that, if I had unlimited resources, I would probably take up the offer (waiting till the last possible week, to get more information).

Kind Regards,
Rhys.


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## Bill M (11 June 2009)

ricee007 said:


> You have until the 2nd July to make up your mind.
> 
> You can wait a couple of weeks to see what the share price does, if it falls to, say, $10... you probably wouldn't want to take up the SPP. If it rises to, say, $30, you would be an idiot if you didn't. There is no need to rush out tomorrow morning... spend a week or two researching and learning.
> 
> ...




I fully agree with Rhys here. I've participated in a few of these and watch the share price up until 2 days before the closing date, then if the FPO shares are trading well above the SPP price I BPay into it.

Just wanted to point out that if it did slip well below the $14.40 issue price then VWAP will kick in. The volume-weighted average price of ANZ ordinary shares traded on ASX during the 5 trading days up to, and including, the day on which the SPP is scheduled to close (Thursday, 2 July 2009) rounded down to the nearest cent.

So in that case if it were to slip to $10 on the 5 trading days up to the spp closing date then you would get it at the cheaper price.


----------



## ricee007 (11 June 2009)

Bill M said:


> Just wanted to point out that if it did slip well below the $14.40 issue price then VWAP will kick in. The volume-weighted average price of ANZ ordinary shares traded on ASX during the 5 trading days up to, and including, the day on which the SPP is scheduled to close (Thursday, 2 July 2009) rounded down to the nearest cent.
> 
> So in that case if it were to slip to $10 on the 5 trading days up to the spp closing date then you would get it at the cheaper price.



Sorry, I didn't make that clear.

Yes, but it would mean ANZ would have dropped from about $17 to $10 in about 2-3 weeks....

I don't know about you, but I don't want to buy into a SPP that has just recently done that!!! Especially since you are unable to trade for about 2 weeks after the offer closes, and you are left at the mercy of the markets...


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## mrluva (11 June 2009)

Thanx all, that was great help...I think I'll watch and see for couple of weeks before making decision...hopefully they are not sold out or reached limit($350 Million) by that time..


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## ricee007 (11 June 2009)

mrluva said:


> Thanx all, that was great help...I think I'll watch and see for couple of weeks before making decision...hopefully they are not sold out or reached limit($350 Million) by that time..



It is rare that SPPs are scaled-back by first-come, first-served.

I would imagine that they would certainly tell you at the time of announcing the SPP.

Read the offer booklet;
http://asx.com.au/asx/research/companyInfo.do?by=asxCode&asxCode=ANZ#headlines

The most common ways of scaleback are:
Pro-rata....

If ANZ want $350M of capital, and people apply for $700m...
If you applied for $10,000 shares you would get 350M/750M * $10,000 = $5,000.

Or...
If you hold 1,000 shares and apply for $10,000 shares....
And someone else holds 500 shares, and applies for $10,000 shares...

The person holding 1,000 shares will get $10,000 of shares, and the person holding 500 shares will get $5,000 of shares.

However, in reality, the MOST likly scenario, IMHO, is no scaleback; that ANZ will take whatever capital it can get.


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## mrluva (11 June 2009)

Ok, Thanx Riceee...this does make sense now..I will try ringing ANZ to confirm the process they will follow...I had 590 shares on the record date..(don't have any now) so I should be OK I suppose, 
Well if this is the case I will definitly wait and watch and use my money playing with other shares in the meantime.


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## ricee007 (11 June 2009)

mrluva said:


> Ok, Thanx Riceee...this does make sense now..I will try ringing ANZ to confirm the process they will follow...I had 590 shares on the record date..(don't have any now) so I should be OK I suppose,
> Well if this is the case I will definitly wait and watch and use my money playing with other shares in the meantime.



Playing with shares is like playing with fire.

Awesome fun, but dangerous.

In the next couple of days, you should get paperwork in the mail about what to do regarding the SPP.


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## Bill M (11 June 2009)

ricee007 said:


> I don't know about you, but I don't want to buy into a SPP that has just recently done that!!! Especially since you are unable to trade for about 2 weeks after the offer closes, and you are left at the mercy of the markets...



Nah, me neither. Seems to be a bit of strength in the stock of late, lets hope it holds, cheers.....


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## bonkerrs (2 July 2009)

I just received a Dividend advice in the mail. 

The Record Date is 13 May 2009
The Payment Date is 01 July 2009

Do I go off the payment date for this dividend payment: 2009-2010 financial year... Or the record date - 2008-2009 fin yr?


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## questionall_42 (2 July 2009)

bonkerrs said:


> I just received a Dividend advice in the mail.
> 
> The Record Date is 13 May 2009
> The Payment Date is 01 July 2009
> ...




You can claim it in your tax return based on the date you got your money, i.e. 09/10 financial year.


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## bonkerrs (4 July 2009)

questionall_42 said:


> You can claim it in your tax return based on the date you got your money, i.e. 09/10 financial year.



Thanks for the info Questionall! I haven't received the funds yet, so definitely 09/10. The payment date is July 2009 but no moolah yet.


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## Strident (10 July 2009)

SPP completed, ANZ gets $2.2b. At 14.40 per share, that's 153m shares, which is about 15x daily volume.

I suspect a significant proportion of that may be dumping for the "free money" in the coming weeks (since I will be one of them).

Technically it's not looking all that great either since the SP has been trending sideways while the stronger banks like CBA has had some modest gains. I'm not sure if the buyers will be enough to take that amount of selling.

As a result I am bearish about the SP in the near term.


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## Bill M (10 July 2009)

Strident said:


> I suspect a significant proportion of that may be dumping for the "free money" in the coming weeks (since I will be one of them).
> 
> As a result I am bearish about the SP in the near term.




Anyone who didn't take this up is just plain crazy. This was better than the NAB and the WBC offer as those were at or very close to market price. This one is still $1.63 more than the SPP price as of today. Dumping day starts July 14th,,,, lets hope it's not too bad


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## Warren Greenspan (13 July 2009)

Actually dumping starts today, Monday.
The new shares show up in 
computershare today so just ring commsec. They did a manual refresh on my holdings and I immediately sold them. Made a quick $1688 which is a nice feeling
Good Luck


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## muibueno (13 July 2009)

The allocation comes up in your holding summary on Computershare but not under your official holding statements yet. Does this matter for settlement or tax or anything. Do you need the holding statement first?


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## Bill M (13 July 2009)

Warren Greenspan said:


> Actually dumping starts today, Monday.
> The new shares show up in
> computershare today so just ring commsec. They did a manual refresh on my holdings and I immediately sold them. Made a quick $1688 which is a nice feeling
> Good Luck




Well done Warren, mine is showing up too.

muibueno, if I were you I would ring my broker and sort it out, good luck.


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## bonkerrs (13 July 2009)

Bill M said:


> Well done Warren, mine is showing up too.
> 
> muibueno, if I were you I would ring my broker and sort it out, good luck.




Yep got my allotment too. But am holding out for a while before selling it all. No rush at the moment.


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## The Owls (13 July 2009)

Just wondering, will Computershare notify Comsec re the share allocation so my portfolio is updated or do I have to notify someone and if so who. Thanks for the help.


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## dirkdiggler444 (13 July 2009)

I just spoke to Etrade, they said you can't trade them until two things happen:
1. they show up as a holding of your portfolio.
2. ANZ release an Appendix 3B news item to the market.

well ANZ released a 3B this morning, so as soon as they show in your account, you should be able to trade them.  Although I imagine they won't show up in peoples accounts till tomorrow.

However............

I when I spoke to Etrade, they said as they had been issued by computershare already, even though they haven't shown up in my portfolio, I could trade them, so had to do a over the phone trade.


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## EZZA (13 July 2009)

'why aren't you able to trade within 2 weeks under the spp. i was told we could trade them as of the 14th july the day after allocation?


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## hammertime (13 July 2009)

I remember hearing about a 45 day Dividend rule where you need to hold the stock for 45 days before selling it or else you have to pay higher taxes on the dividends.

I was just wondering if there is anything similar to that with regards to shares purchased through SPP or can we just start selling?

Thanks.


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## Julia (13 July 2009)

dirkdiggler444 said:


> I just spoke to Etrade, they said you can't trade them until two things happen:
> 1. they show up as a holding of your portfolio.
> 2. ANZ release an Appendix 3B news item to the market.
> 
> ...



If you don't mind my asking, why were you so anxious to sell them today?
Just curious about why you'd want to sell on a day when the price fell?


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## aaronphetamine (13 July 2009)

I agree with you Julia... I participated in the ANZ share offer in full and I wont be selling out tomorrow regardless of whether ANZ falls or goes up. A few weeks ago it was over $17, and now becuase simply a lack of global economic and consumer confidence has taken this price to below $16. From a future cashflow perspective, (which is how shares are valued anyway) the profit and cashflow structure hasnt changed one bit. I believe ANZ is in a great position where it has its base in a strong western country and is looking to expand into south east asia. An area of the world which is growing and becoming wealthier every year.

While CBA and WBC are now dominating retail banking in australia and NAB dominates Business Banking, ANZ has taken (in my opinion) a wise decision to look to expand internationally, especially into an area, that is extremely close to Australia, yet has so much growth potential.

Anyway, I just felt like contributing...


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## Strident (13 July 2009)

Yup, dumping starts today. I was a bit surprised to see the shares just sitting there in etrade this morning just as the market opened, got out in a panic. Turns out that was the right move for the day at least.

While I can't answer for dirkdiggler444, personally I was anxious to sell first before all the other people sell off their excess holdings. 

 - A while ago I remember reading of a study showing rights issues having significant negative effects on returns in the intermediate term. The same underlying causes should apply to SPP, I think. 

 - Also the recent weakness in the market, it seems possible to me that even without the SPP, the price could fall further.

While the fundamental view may apply in the long term, I believe in the short term the excess supply of ANZ shares that I could get out now and, if I wanted to, go back in at a lower price: in the long run, the market may be a weighing machine, but in the short run it is a voting machine.



hammertime said:


> I remember hearing about a 45 day Dividend rule where you need to hold the stock for 45 days before selling it or else you have to pay higher taxes on the dividends.
> 
> I was just wondering if there is anything similar to that with regards to shares purchased through SPP or can we just start selling?
> 
> Thanks.




I'm not a tax accountant, and if you want to make sure you should see a tax accountant, but I thought that rule
 was to stop people buying shares just for the tax benefit, so doesn't really have much to do with SPP.

Also, GumbyLearner, could you elaborate on what legal actions you're talking about?


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## Iggy_Pop (14 July 2009)

Sold off the bulk of my Share Placement today with a good outcome. Still keeping a few for the next capital raising. Still a bit nervous about banks at the moment, but reporting season should clarify


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## brettc4 (14 July 2009)

I don't see much of a sell off. Looking at the volume over the last 4 days, they have all been around the 9 million mark.

I Participated (not to the full amount) but I know others who did and we are all keeping them longer term.  I think it would be interesting to know how may people bought into the SPP just for the quick turnaround. Good return for a couple of weeks.

But tell me, how do you determine you Capital gain on this?
You needed to own some shares first so when you sell shares, which parcel do they come out of, is it:
- first on, first off
- first on, last off
- investor gets to choose???


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## Iggy_Pop (14 July 2009)

I asked the same question on a thread on this forum called "Value of shares for taxation" and got a few replies which explained this.

https://www.aussiestockforums.com/forums/showthread.php?t=16276


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## Big_Daz (14 July 2009)

So I participated in the SPP to the full...was watching the share price today closely but opted not to sell. My main reason for this was because of the lead from the Dow overnight (I bought them on a short term view so thought I might as well sell them on a short term indicator....I thought it made sense).

For now though I am holding to see how they go...hoping the speculation about some short term purchases will come to fruition


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## Big_Daz (14 July 2009)

Iggy_Pop said:


> I asked the same question on a thread on this forum called "Value of shares for taxation" and got a few replies which explained this.
> 
> https://www.aussiestockforums.com/forums/showthread.php?t=16276




In relation to tax...these links will help you

http://law.ato.gov.au/pdf/td33.pdf (note point 2 and 3)

http://law.ato.gov.au/pdf/td33a.pdf (note point 1)

http://www.ato.gov.au/content/downloads/NAT2632-05.pdf (note page 7 on the side...)


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## doctorj (5 August 2009)

http://www.theherald.co.uk/business...BS_sells_Asia_bank_assets_to_ANZ_for_325m.php

ANZ has bought RBS's Asian assets (Taiwan, Singapore, Indonesia, Vietnam, Philippines and Hong Kong) for £325m.


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## Dark1975 (22 September 2009)

A Large movement in the last 30mins of trade!Is there a upcoming announcement coming up?Cause the movement was massive in terms of price action!


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## Dark1975 (25 September 2009)

Trading halt, any ideas?This would be my luck!.Had a short sell on anz on yesterday's close.Any one know of any news for the trading halt?


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## snowking (25 September 2009)

This just in on The Australian website



> ANZ is set to announce the acquisition of the other half of its wealth management joint venture with ING for $1.5 billion.
> 
> The bank’s shares were placed in a trading halt early today with news pending on the acquisition.
> 
> The news is likely to be welcomed by the markets, given ANZ’s underweight position in asset management.




Full Story http://www.theaustralian.news.com.au/business/story/0,28124,26123085-36418,00.html


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## Dark1975 (25 September 2009)

snowking said:


> This just in on The Australian website
> 
> 
> 
> Full Story http://www.theaustralian.news.com.au/business/story/0,28124,26123085-36418,00.html




cheers mate,That would explain the pre-trade on course of sales pre-market(exercise of call)Ec of over 1,000,000 shares traded as options.hmmm insider trading is a live and well.
Would be great to be a friend of a director!


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## snowking (25 September 2009)

any bets that the sharp jump in price that was seen in the last half an hour of trading the other day had something to do with this


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## cutz (25 September 2009)

Dark1975 said:


> cheers mate,That would explain the pre-trade on course of sales pre-market(exercise of call)Ec of over 1,000,000 shares traded as options.hmmm insider trading is a live and well.
> Would be great to be a friend of a director!




Nah,

It's what you normally see on the day after equity option expiry, you'll notice that most of the top stocks have assignment action at around 7am.


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## Dark1975 (25 September 2009)

cutz said:


> Nah,
> 
> It's what you normally see on the day after equity option expiry, you'll notice that most of the top stocks have assignment action at around 7am.




Yeah mate i know these transactions are called *special crossings*,I was saying the volume was five-ten fold the normal range of any morning.I know this because before i trade i look at all the shares on my watchlist for price action on large volumes pre-trade.


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## drlog (5 November 2009)

Here is a simple question if anyone can answer:

So far today, ANZ's price has fallen by 0.56 which happens to be exactly the next dividend. The Ex-div date is today. Does that mean that you had to purchase the shares *yesterday* in order to get the dividend or does it mean that you could purchase them *today* and get the dividend?

I was under the impression you could buy today and still get the dividend payment.


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## oldblue (5 November 2009)

Today is ex div date, ie trading without (ex) the dividend.

The expression " gone ex" is sometimes used which I think better conveys the meaning.


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## vincent191 (5 November 2009)

drlog said:


> Here is a simple question if anyone can answer:
> 
> So far today, ANZ's price has fallen by 0.56 which happens to be exactly the next dividend. The Ex-div date is today. Does that mean that you had to purchase the shares *yesterday* in order to get the dividend or does it mean that you could purchase them *today* and get the dividend?
> 
> I was under the impression you could buy today and still get the dividend payment.




Here is the simple answer.....if you buy today it will cost you 56 cents less, so logically how can you still get the dividend?

Further, even if you bought yesterday you will still not get the dividend because the ex-dividend date is NOT the date that you bought the shares BUT the date you are registered on the Company's register.


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## drlog (5 November 2009)

vincent191 said:


> Further, even if you bought yesterday you will still not get the dividend because the ex-dividend date is NOT the date that you bought the shares BUT the date you are registered on the Company's register.




That confused me. I thought the point was that there is the ex-div date and the record date (in this case, the 11th). If you buy before the ex-div date (yesterday) then your shares are allotted to you by the record date and you get the dividend. 

I don't care, the last ANZ shares I bought were on the SPP. I just want to understand for future reference.

Cheers


----------



## awg (5 November 2009)

drlog said:


> That confused me. I thought the point was that there is the ex-div date and the record date (in this case, the 11th). If you buy before the ex-div date (yesterday) then your shares are allotted to you by the record date and you get the dividend.
> 
> I don't care, the last ANZ shares I bought were on the SPP. I just want to understand for future reference.
> 
> Cheers




I agree with you, and disagree with Vincent.

If you purchase shares up to close of business, on the day b4 ex-div, u r entitled.

If for some reason your purchase does not make it onto the share register by RECORD date, you are still entitled to divs, and get paid later, usually in a clean up sweep, some weeks after, or at next div date, (or when you enquire
,one of my divs got missed for several years!)

check ASX site or google for more in depth explanation


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## skyQuake (5 November 2009)

awg said:


> I agree with you, and disagree with Vincent.
> 
> If you purchase shares up to close of business, on the day b4 ex-div, u r entitled.
> 
> ...




Agree, gotta buy before the ex-div date so your trades will SETTLE before the record date. Usually if it doesnt settle properly in time for record date, your broker will arrange something.
Same for spps, entitlements etc. 
Just the length between ex-date and record date can be fairly different between those.


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## YELNATS (5 November 2009)

awg said:


> I agree with you, and disagree with Vincent.
> 
> If you purchase shares up to close of business, on the day b4 ex-div, u r entitled.




You are right, Vincent is wrong. We've had this discussion many times in many threads on Aussie Stock Forums.


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## oldblue (5 November 2009)

YELNATS said:


> You are right, Vincent is wrong. We've had this discussion many times in many threads on Aussie Stock Forums.




Quite right.

Ex div refers to the trading status, not the state of the register. Claims for divs are settled between brokers.


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## vincent191 (5 November 2009)

I can only tell you what happened to me previously. I missed out on the previous divi because I was not on their register even though I bought the shares 2 days before the entitlement date.


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## awg (5 November 2009)

vincent191 said:


> I can only tell you what happened to me previously. I missed out on the previous divi because I was not on their register even though I bought the shares 2 days before the entitlement date.




Ring the share registry.

you will probably find the divs are awaiting some info such as your direct credit details, and/or your instructions...as per my post, once had unclaimed divs for several years, only came to my attention when I rang the share registry of that company about another matter.

Could be some clerical error, possibly

or perhaps some misunderstanding on your part?

maybe payday coming up for you


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## vincent191 (5 November 2009)

Thanks awg....i will ring ANZ. Previously I rang Commsec and I was told that I had missed out and that maintaining ANZ's shareholders register was not their responsibility. I didn't take that any further mainly because the $$ involved was not very big.


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## awg (5 November 2009)

vincent191 said:


> Thanks awg....i will ring ANZ. Previously I rang Commsec and I was told that I had missed out and that maintaining ANZ's shareholders register was not their responsibility. I didn't take that any further mainly because the $$ involved was not very big.





Ring the SHARE REGISTRY..(either link or computershare)..google " ANZ share register" to find out details.

commsec just want to get u off the phone


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## drlog (5 November 2009)

Haha, all of our questions are answered:

http://www.anz.com/about-us/shareholders/faqs/

Sorry for starting up this thread again!


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## geea (10 November 2009)

Just wondering what peoples thoughts are on the new ANZ Convertible Preference Shares. I don't know alot about this sort of investment and would like to know what the pros and cons are.


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## gordon2007 (10 November 2009)

I'd be interested in hearing what some of the more experienced traders\investors think of this too. My own personal view, not based any thing more than a gut feeling, is that anz is getting ready to be a huge regional powerhouse.


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## ricee007 (10 November 2009)

geea said:


> Just wondering what peoples thoughts are on the new ANZ Convertible Preference Shares. I don't know alot about this sort of investment and would like to know what the pros and cons are.



Ok.
So.
ANZ will pay an amount above the 3month BBSW rate (24 hours delayed, http://www.afma.com.au/scripts/nc.dll?AFMAv6:HOMEPAGE , top right corner).

until December 2016... when , either, (barring a catastrophe), you will get $101 worth of ANZ shares or $100 cash.

My guess is it would be 3.1% above the BBSW, but we will know shortly.

RISKS: ANZ not being able to afford the interest (HAHAHA)
RISKS: ANZ going bust (HHAHAHAHA)
RISKS: The securities being traded at below 'face value', meaning, to receive your return on investment, you will need to hold till December 2016.
RISKS: You get $101 worth of ANZ..... but, before the shares actually arrive, ANZ drops to half price... so your '$101' of ANZ shares are worth $50 by the time you sell them.

Benfits: You get a reasonable return, with very, low risk.

BBSW is currently 3.95, so your return would be, approximately 7.05% atm... is this high enough? That's up to you (then, take-away tax).

 5-6% is historical average for BBSW. I would imagine an average BBSW of 5% between now and 2016. Perhaps 5.25? So, if ANZ are paying 3.1% above that (my guess).... that would be 8.35% per annum (less tax (5.845% after tax).

PERSONALLY, I'd rather aim for a ROI of over 10%.... but, these definitely do have their place for others.



> My own personal view, not based any thing more than a gut feeling



I'm going to assume that you haven't been following ANZ then?

OF COURSE they are expanding, rapidly, into Asia. They want 25% of their profit (profit or income?) to be from Asia by 2012( pretty sure it was 2012).

They just bought RBS' Asian Assets, for example. They plan to spend billions more on Asian assets.

They have an AWFUL lot of capital at the moment.... and, I am disappointed that they chose to do this capital raising. They DON'T NEED IT, and, the price is way too high.

Read any of the major ANZ announcments, they have made it clear, many times, that they are expanding into Asia, rapidly and aggressively.


Having said all that, ANZ is my preferred bank and one that I am happy to hold (they make up 19.x% of my portfolio). I believe they have the biggest growth potential out of the majors, and I like their CEO and direction.

Finally, http://ozbankers.com/index.php?option=com_content&task=view&id=26&Itemid=29 is an article I wrote... this is largely shameless self-promotion, but, it does contain some relevant information, such as 







> n July, ANZ completed a $4.7Bn equity raising that involved a Share Purchase Plan (SPP) that was three times oversubscribed. Mike Smith, CEO, described it as a “strong endorsement of ANZ’s super regional strategy”. Since then, ANZ has purchased $687M of RBS’s Asian assets and $1.76Bn of the wealth management and life insurance joint venture from ING.


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## geea (10 November 2009)

ricee007, thats a great response and you've answered my question beautifully. Thanks for taking the time to do that. The only other question i have is what really affects the price of pref shares?


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## Largesse (10 November 2009)

Just a quickie,

I'm very interested in buying a block of these new CPS2's for my old old lady as I expect them to give her a quite good income stream as interest rates continue to rise.
With regard to subscribing, should I expect to get scaled back, and thus would you think it would be sensible for me to over apply to ensure we get allotted the desired amount?
Should we not get scaled back, are we under any obligation to pay for the full amount we applied for or can we just take the desired amount?


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## ricee007 (11 November 2009)

Largesse said:


> I'm very interested in buying a block of these new CPS2's for my old old lady as I expect them to give her a quite good income stream as interest rates continue to rise.



I think CBAPA (perls v) started as $500m or $750m, and ended up accepting $2Bn....

ANZ's is $750M + or - whatever they feel like.....

ANZ haven't said that there is a limit to how much you can apply for. Just a $5000 min.

It's IMPOSSIBLE to know if they will allow over-subscriptions, but, I would imagine that a lot more than $750M will apply.... and wouldn't be surprised if ANZ accepted $1.5M or so......

I think I read ANZ holders (as at a certain date, 30th Oct?) have 'priority' if scaleback occurs....

$750m will only increase T1 ratio by 0.3 percentage points... If they accepted $1.5M, it will increase by 0.6 percentage points, which is substantial...



> With regard to subscribing, should I expect to get scaled back, and thus would you think it would be sensible for me to over apply to ensure we get allotted the desired amount?
> Should we not get scaled back, are we under any obligation to pay for the full amount we applied for or can we just take the desired amount?



IF YOU DON'T GET SCALED BACK, YOU ARE COMMITTED TO PAYING FOR THEM.

Note, you can then sell on the ASX though (but, will need funds in between those 2 dates ).

Um, will you get scaled back?

Hmm.

It's VERY hard to tell. Perhaps ANZ will receive, um, $2.25Bn applications and accept $1.5Bn?

Perhaps, ANZ preferred applicants (holders of CPS1 or ANZ as of the record date) will get their full amount requested, and the general public will be scaled back a little bit?

That's my UNEDUCATED guess. But, I wouldn't be surprsied if ANZ took in all applicants and accepted $2.25Bn worth. I would be annoyed, just not surprised 



Geea, you are very welcome. Thanks for your manners.


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## doctorj (11 November 2009)

Unrelated to your current discussion, but its emerged in the press that ANZ may be a likely bidder for AXA Asia Pacific Holdings depending on how the AXA Group/AMP bid evolves.


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## oldblue (11 November 2009)

doctorj said:


> Unrelated to your current discussion, but its emerged in the press that ANZ may be a likely bidder for AXA Asia Pacific Holdings depending on how the AXA Group/AMP bid evolves.




It may very well be related.

As noted above, ANZ don't appear to need more capital at this stage unless they have further major acquisition plans. We know that they intend to grow but we don't know we don't know any details.


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## Bill M (11 November 2009)

geea said:


> Just wondering what peoples thoughts are on the new ANZ Convertible Preference Shares. I don't know alot about this sort of investment and would like to know what the pros and cons are.




I am an investor of these type of securities. The cons are that the security may trade under face value. If this happens and you need your money you will have to sell on market at a capital loss. During the GFC nearly all of these securities crashed and if you wanted your money back you would have made a loss.

Having said that the interest spread of between 3.1 to 3.3% (to be announced) is attractive and should hold prices at or above face value. The risk is that credit could become tighter in the future and then companies may issue other securities with higher yields. For example if a company issued a product with 4.5% above the bbsw then which would you buy the ANZ one with 3.1% or the XYZ with 4.5%. If that happens then again the capital value can drop. We are coming out of the greatest credit squeeze I have ever seen so I think there is not much chance of that but who knows there are some gurus out there predicting worse to come.

All in all it is a reasonably safe investment (as long as ANZ doesn't go belly up) which will gross you about 7% today but rates are going up and as they do so will your interest rate on this investment which will give you higher returns, good luck.


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## Bill M (11 November 2009)

Largesse said:


> Just a quickie,
> 
> I'm very interested in buying a block of these new CPS2's for my old old lady as I expect them to give her a quite good income stream as interest rates continue to rise.
> With regard to subscribing, should I expect to get scaled back, and thus would you think it would be sensible for me to over apply to ensure we get allotted the desired amount?
> Should we not get scaled back, are we under any obligation to pay for the full amount we applied for or can we just take the desired amount?




ricee007 is pretty much right with what he has said. Just as a side note I thought that the CBA PERLS V offer was going to be scaled back too but to my surprise it wasn't. Both my wife and I got full allocations, no scale back so I would be reluctant in subscribing for more than neccessary, cheers.


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## oldblue (11 November 2009)

oldblue said:


> It may very well be related.
> 
> As noted above, ANZ don't appear to need more capital at this stage unless they have further major acquisition plans. We know that they intend to grow but we don't know we don't know any details.




Here's Stephen Bartholomeusz' take on how the Australasian part of the AXA business may become contested.
The Asian business is spoken for - the French parent has a firm hold via its majority holding - but others may bid against AMP for the rest.
Personally, I don't see ANZ being interested in this. Their main interest is in expansion in Asia, which isn't possible here, and Mike Smith is unlikely to enter a bidding war for the local business. Still, you never know!

http://www.businessspectator.com.au...Pacific-pd20091109-XM3UC?OpenDocument&src=kgb


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## doctorj (11 November 2009)

oldblue said:


> Here's Stephen Bartholomeusz' take on how the Australasian part of the AXA business may become contested.
> The Asian business is spoken for - the French parent has a firm hold via its majority holding - but others may bid against AMP for the rest.
> Personally, I don't see ANZ being interested in this. Their main interest is in expansion in Asia, which isn't possible here, and Mike Smith is unlikely to enter a bidding war for the local business. Still, you never know!
> 
> http://www.businessspectator.com.au...Pacific-pd20091109-XM3UC?OpenDocument&src=kgb



Thanks for the link.  Very interesting article.  To be honest, I don't see AMP taking the whole lot either.  What I do think is interesting is AXA is going after AXA APH when AIG and ING are in play.


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## ricee007 (11 November 2009)

Bill M said:


> I am an investor of these type of securities. The cons are that the security may trade under face value. If this happens and you need your money you will have to sell on market at a capital loss. During the GFC nearly all of these securities crashed and if you wanted your money back you would have made a loss.
> 
> All in all it is a reasonably safe investment (as long as ANZ doesn't go belly up) which will gross you about 7% today but rates are going up and as they do so will your interest rate on this investment which will give you higher returns, good luck.




Hehe, I bought MXUPA, FXJPB and GNSPA  (and have held BEPPA). In profit on all of them, except GNSPA ($14 loss).


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## Largesse (11 November 2009)

I have a couple of follow up questions, and thank you for your previous answers. I am new to preference shares.

1) The issue price is fixed at $100 no matter now many bids they receive?
2) The way the dividend is calculated is a margin of 3.10-3.30% + BBSW. BBSW is based on RBA interest rates yes? Theoretically, what should I expect to happen to the market price of the CSP2's in the event of changes in the official interest rate/BBSW? 

I would've thought increase in IR would lead to increase in price of CSP2 as people arb out the yield differentials between fixed rate preference shares/bonds and the floating rate pref's/bonds? Or do I have it completely wrong?

Thanks in advance


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## ricee007 (11 November 2009)

Largesse said:


> I have a couple of follow up questions, and thank you for your previous answers. I am new to preference shares.



No worries. It's either talk preference shares, or study for tomorrows Property Law exam.... Shares win. NCIS: LA in 5 minutes though.



> 1) The issue price is fixed at $100 no matter now many bids they receive?



Yep, 100% fixed. Will be issued at $100, come heaven or hell. That's kind of irrelevant though. I mean, if the price (face value) was $200, and you bought $5,000 worth and got 10% interest a year... you would get 25 CPS2, each giving interest of $20 a year.... = $500.

If face value was $100, and you bought $5000 worth, and got 10% interst a year.. you would get 50 CPS2, each receiving $10 of interest = $500.



> 2) The way the dividend is calculated is a margin of 3.10-3.30% + BBSW.



Correct. Well, 'approximately 3.1-3.3%', we will know soon. I would guess 3.1%, but.



> BBSW is based on RBA interest rates yes?



Yes, no, maybe.
Firstly, http://www.afma.com.au/scripts/nc.dll?AFMAv6:HOMEPAGE Top right is 24 hours delayed 90day BBSW (the relevant BBSW)... 3.97% or so ATM.

Secondly, as the RBA increases 'the target cash rate' (the headline figure everyone talks about, currently 3.5%)... the 90dayBBSW should increase. However, the 90dayBBSW sort of anticipates the 'target cash rate'... I could explain it technically, but, if you need to know, Google it.



> Theoretically, what should I expect to happen to the market price of the CSP2's in the event of changes in the official interest rate/BBSW?



Well, if RBA raised interests rate tomorrow, the 90dayBBSW would rise (assuming it hadn't factored in a rate increase).... Lets say the 90dayBBSW rate was, say, 100% (ridiculous, but, work with me). That means every year, ANZ will give every CPS2 owner 3.1%+100% in interest... or, $103.10 per year. If ANZ was giving everyone $103.10, every year, for 7 years... if you give them $100 now.... they will obviously be worth much, much higher than $100. Ergo, price increases.

But, also, note, the 'yield' of similar securities (CBAPA, etc) also increases.... people put more money into savings accounts... what will the affect of 100% interest rates? WIll ANZ risk collapsing and defaulting? Does 100% interest rates mean that the economy is screwed? Etc.

But, yes, all things being equal, as the RBA increases interest rates, these become more valuable. Yes.


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## boofhead (11 November 2009)

For further reading check out how hybrids work like CBA's PERLS products.

The $100 is the listing price, treat it like any other IPO. Once listed the price is set my the market. BBSW is an influence on the market price.

The BBSW is not RBA rate although it follow similar patterns. It is the market rate - it can go up and down independent of the RBA.

The dividend (interest) is calculated using the face value of $100 and not the trading price.

It is interesting how the margin is expected to be %3.10 to %3.30 while PERLS V is something similar recently issued with a margin of %3.40. BBSW increases the main driver to reduce the margin? A greater market desire for the product of this type means it doesn't need as much of a sweetener?


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## Bill M (11 November 2009)

Largesse said:


> 1) The issue price is fixed at $100 no matter now many bids they receive?




Yes



> 2) The way the dividend is calculated is a margin of 3.10-3.30% + BBSW. BBSW is based on RBA interest rates yes?




Not exactly usually it is about .25% higher than the offical RBA rate. For example when the GFC was in full swing the RBA rate was 3% but the 90 day bbsw was around 3.25%.



> Theoretically, what should I expect to happen to the market price of the CSP2's in the event of changes in the official interest rate/BBSW?
> 
> I would've thought increase in IR would lead to increase in price of CSP2 as people arb out the yield differentials between fixed rate preference shares/bonds and the floating rate pref's/bonds? Or do I have it completely wrong?




You are right mostly, I would expect them to rise in price also. What you might not be taking into consideration is the credit cycle. At the depth of the GFC no one could get any money from anyone without paying more for it. Therefore new issues were being offered at rate of 4.5% above the bbsw rate. When that happens existing lower interest rate securities lose face value because new buyers don't want something paying a piddly .75% above the bbsw and they will go for the highest offerings. A good example of that was AMP's AQNHA check that one out. Since listing last year with a spread of around 4.5% it's capital value has increased by 10%, everyone chasing the yield like you said. So unless we go back to a terrible credit squeeze like that again then I would expect CPS2 to go up. Credit is becoming easier now and any rate rises should improve the capital value of your CPS2. Incidentally I will be buying a parcel of these as I believe rates will keep going up.

After I typed all of this I noticed others have already answered your queries, sorry if I have repeated anything, cheers.


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## Bill M (11 November 2009)

ricee007 said:


> Hehe, I bought MXUPA, FXJPB and GNSPA  (and have held BEPPA). In profit on all of them, except GNSPA ($14 loss).




Well done mate, I love to see people making money. I just wish I had enough guts to buy GMPPA when they hit $13, now they are $62


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## ricee007 (11 November 2009)

Bill M said:


> Well done mate, I love to see people making money. I just wish I had enough guts to buy GMPPA when they hit $13, now they are $62



I'm just annoyed I got into these in September.

Some of the prices some of the CPS I was looking at are hilarious!!! The 12 month lows... Sigh.

I think MXUPA was $12? They then hit $74 or so.



> It is interesting how the margin is expected to be %3.10 to %3.30 while PERLS V is something similar recently issued with a margin of %3.40. BBSW increases the main driver to reduce the margin? A greater market desire for the product of this type means it doesn't need as much of a sweetener?



Perls v Raised $2Bn.
Perls v intended to raise either $500m or $750m

So, Perls V was 3 or 4 times oversubscribed.... AND EXCLUDED the general public, and was a month or so ago...

Credit markers are better now... and ANZ have learnt, somewhat, how many people wanted them.....

However, an indicative of 3.1-3.3 leads me to suspect that they expect over-subscription... and will allot more than $750m. Which makes me roll my eyes and be dissapointed.

Even at 2.9% I'm sure they could get $750M.

As to buying them for capital growth? Hmmm, valid points..... I just don't think they'll match my 'required' return.....They would need to trade at around $106....

*AND* I would need to buy $5,000 worth.....

Hmm, somewhat tempting..... perhaps if I had a bigger portfolio, and could divest into defensive assets.... but, I'm 90% sure I'll pass.


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## condog (14 November 2009)

To me its more a decision of income security v income growth

With your typical ANZ shares you can expect dividend growth of about 8-12% p.a. on average....

With CPS2 its pretty much expected rates will lift from the current lows of 3.5% to long term averages of 5% ish, possibly higher to 7% if stimulus measures crease an asset  bubble that needs halling back in.....Any which way you look at it the probability is that this will rise.....hence your likely (not definitely) to recieve a rate of 6%ish now rising to 8%ish , maybee 9% ish, then pulling back slightly. These are paid quarterly in arrears and fully or mostly franked.....

Where as with your  ANZ shares your likely to buy at around 4.9% today and grow this rate at approx 8-12% giving dividend returns of 
@8% Growth = 4.9%, 5.29%, 5.71%, 6.17%, 6.66%, 7.19%, 7.77%, 8.39%
@12% Growth = 4.9%, 5.48%, 6.14%, 6.88%, 7.71%, 8.64%, 9.67%, 10.83%

In the past I would have said they will never match ANZ shares for cap growth, but given the significant and continuous Capital rasings and dilution of shareholders equity in all 4 banks , its more likely they might out perform.

In terms of linking them to aNZ price its not worth your brain space...... They are similar underlying investments and you will suffer similar gains or losses irrespective of which way the market moves if you have your money in both...or either....

Its an each way bet... Not a huge amount one way or the other on face value........Although preferentials have  a habit of coming out on top...hence the reason people and institutions are so keen to get hold of them...

So whilst I will probably be applying for some, simply because of the strong track record for preferential shares, Id have to very strongly say if you dont understand them dont buy them.....


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## buttonzhu (14 November 2009)

hOW about the SP on Monday?

I assume it will be huge jump? Anyone can give a buy in price for suggestions??

Cheers


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## Julia (14 November 2009)

condog said:


> Where as with your  ANZ shares your likely to buy at around 4.9% today and grow this rate at approx 8-12% giving dividend returns of
> @8% Growth = 4.9%, 5.29%, 5.71%, 6.17%, 6.66%, 7.19%, 7.77%, 8.39%
> @12% Growth = 4.9%, 5.48%, 6.14%, 6.88%, 7.71%, 8.64%, 9.67%, 10.83%



How are you working that out?   Are you assuming no rise in SP?
Obviously if ANZ shows some capital growth, the % dividend return will be diminished.


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## ricee007 (14 November 2009)

buttonzhu said:


> hOW about the SP on Monday?
> 
> I assume it will be huge jump? Anyone can give a buy in price for suggestions??
> 
> Cheers



I'm slightly confused; why are you expecting such a massive jump? Am I missing something?

So, after all of this, who is considering taking up the CPS2 offer?


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## drlog (16 November 2009)

Julia, what condog is saying is that if you were to buy ANZ shares NOW and hold on to them, your dividend stream would increase. This is not accounting for capital gains at all.

ricee007, the reason you would go with this CPS2 offer is because it has a lot less risk. It could turn out that there is a massive recession and ANZ's profit slumps causing the dividends to go down and the share price to go down also. However, if youre in the CPS2, you know exactly what you're going to be getting. There are risks but they are extremely unlikely.

If you are in a position where you want a low risk investment, CPS2 is very attractive.


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## badger41 (22 November 2009)

Friday newspaper reports indicate that bank Hybrids are likely to have their quality rating scaled down to "just above junk bond" status by at least one rating agency. Note the big fall in the value of CBA Perls and other hybrids on Friday. 

CPS2 is starting to look a bit less attractive than a few days ago. My guess, open around $97. 

Cheers, badger


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## ricee007 (22 November 2009)

badger41 said:


> Friday newspaper reports indicate that bank Hybrids are likely to have their quality rating scaled down to "just above junk bond" status by at least one rating agency. Note the big fall in the value of CBA Perls and other hybrids on Friday.
> 
> CPS2 is starting to look a bit less attractive than a few days ago. My guess, open around $97.
> 
> Cheers, badger



lol, badger, you are cute and ill informed.

It won't open at around $97.

It is VERY UNLIKELY that the Big 4 bank hybrids will be scaled down to just above junk bond status! This suggestion makes you lose all credibility. Potentially downgraded... sure.. that much? No.

The All ords dropped 61 points, 1.3% on Friday. And you wonder why bank hybrids dropped?
You mention the PERLS...
CBAPA (Perls V) dropped 0.38%
Perls III dropped 1.2%
Perls v dropped 2%
ANZ CPS1 dropped 0.1%
BENHB dropped 0.4%
BOQPC dropped 1.5%
NABHA dropped 0.1%
Mqcpa dropped 0.9%.

I er, get the feeling that they dropped in line with the market!?

"Friday newspaper reports"
LOL, this news has been around for about a month, longer? It is *VERY OLD* news and is NOT the reason for a drop in the price of CPS on Friday.

Besides, fundamentally, nothing will change. ANZCPS1, Perls V, Perls 3, Big Macs perpetual securities will all have the same risk, the same expected return, and should be worth the same amount. The only affect on price should come from institutions that don't have a mandate to invest in these securities that are rated more risky..... however, that affect should be very minor, and, very mostly temporary.

To put it into perspecitve, CBAPA, PCAPA, CBAPB, NABHA, ANZPB, WBCPA, WBCPB, WCTPA, NABHA (Every Big 4 bank hybrid on the ASX) are all rated A+. Below A+ is A. Below A is A-. Below A- is BBB+. (Note those Big 4 Banks are all rated AA, btw) I really don't think a change in ratings, for no fundamental reason, will actually change the fair value (and hence, the price) of these securities.


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## Largesse (22 November 2009)

If these trade below face value when they open i will be buying them in bulk quantities. 

Badger. I can lend you the CSP2's that I will receive as part of my subscription for you to sell short if you like?


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## ricee007 (22 November 2009)

Largesse said:


> If these trade below face value when they open i will be buying them in bulk quantities.
> 
> Badger. I can lend you the CSP2's that I will receive as part of my subscription for you to sell short if you like?



Mate, if you get that sort of agreement going, I'll actually get around to opening a margin account and buying $10,000 worth to allow him to "short" them as well!

Could be good!


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## ajc13b (24 November 2009)

condog said:


> So whilst I will probably be applying for some, simply because of the strong track record for preferential shares, Id have to very strongly say if you dont understand them dont buy them.....




Is the general consensus that this this a fair comment? 

I came on here to learn about the offer which I am able to participate in if I want. It sounds like a good opportunity to me based on what I have read to put some cash into that would otherwise sit in an ING savings account for 5 or so years. 

I am certainly not an expert now, but I understand the concept better than I did. Should I avoid the offer?


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## drlog (24 November 2009)

ajc13b said:


> Is the general consensus that this this a fair comment?
> 
> I came on here to learn about the offer which I am able to participate in if I want. It sounds like a good opportunity to me based on what I have read to put some cash into that would otherwise sit in an ING savings account for 5 or so years.




Well, the difference is that you can get out of the ING account with a guarantee of no capital loss. The CPS2 should have a higher return assuming you hold them until maturity or sell for a capital gain.

Also, consider that the CPS2 may be converted into shares at the end. You may not want that although you can sell them right away if that is the case.


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## ricee007 (24 November 2009)

Putting them into a bank account is less risk.

As the market is somewhat efficient, this equates to a lower expected return...

Ergo, the CPS2 should have a higher expected return.

I mean, look at bank accounts now..... BBSW is 3.92, margin is 3.1... know of any bank accounts (not term deposits) that pay over 7% per annum?

Realistically, I've talked to around 4 people that reckon this will open at above face value (instant capital gain), and, 1 person who disagrees... so, vote is 5:1........

"MacqBank has done 1.7%, NAB 1.25, Westpac 2.4, Westpac 1.0, Woolworths 1.1, ANZCPS1 2.5, Adelaide Bank 0.75, Bendigo Bank 1.75, BBI 1.15%!, BOQ 2%, Suncorp 0.75%, Elders at 2.2%!, CBA 1.05%, CBA 1.05%, Dexus Rents 1.3%, Fairfax 1.55%, Nurfarm 1.9%, etc, etc, etc."

Are currently traded hybrids on the ASX....

They were all created when credit markets were more open... hence with a lower margin. Now, credit markets are tight, so there has to be higher margins...

In the future, most people expect credit markets to loosen... which means that margins should reduce again... if margins reduce again, hyrbids with a high margin should trade at above $100 (think logically, if NAB releases a hybrid with a 2% margin in 2013 for $100... ANZ's 3.1% should be above $100)....


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## ajc13b (24 November 2009)

drlog said:


> Well, the difference is that you can get out of the ING account with a guarantee of no capital loss. The CPS2 should have a higher return assuming you hold them until maturity or sell for a capital gain.
> 
> Also, consider that the CPS2 may be converted into shares at the end. You may not want that although you can sell them right away if that is the case.




Is it possible to hold to maturity and make a loss at all? I thought, at worst, you would get your $100 per preference OR an equivalent value of ANZ shares? Our plan is to hold to maturity (Although if face value goes through the roof we would be stupid to hold!)



ricee007 said:


> Putting them into a bank account is less risk.
> 
> As the market is somewhat efficient, this equates to a lower expected return...
> 
> ...




Great explanation, thank you very much! Maybe ANZ should farm out some of their documentation to you


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## awg (24 November 2009)

ajc13b said:


> Is it possible to hold to maturity and make a loss at all? I thought, at worst, you would get your $100 per preference OR an equivalent value of ANZ shares? Our plan is to hold to maturity (Although if face value goes through the roof we would be stupid to hold!)




There are various clauses with these preference issues, that are different for each one.

Ultimately, the issuer needs to become insolvent, but in crisis, when holders become concerned, the capital value falls, so if you need or want to sell early, you will realise a loss. 

Conversely if you bought some of the preference shares a while back at a marked down price, you get much higher effective yield, plus a very good chance of a tidy capital gain as the conversion or step up dates approach

There are some good links on the Hybrid thread if you want to know more


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## ricee007 (26 November 2009)

ajc13b said:


> Is it possible to hold to maturity and make a loss at all? I thought, at worst, you would get your $100 per preference OR an equivalent value of ANZ shares? Our plan is to hold to maturity (Although if face value goes through the roof we would be stupid to hold!)



Yes.

Firstly, minor point, but, it's actually $101.01 of ANZ shares, or $100.

Secondly, yes, if ANZ goes under you may get a negative return.

Thirdly, sort of, if ANZ is unable to pay dividends, you could, potentially, merely get your $100 back.. as in, pay $100 now... have ANZ pay $0 dividends over the next 7 years, get $100 then.......

Fourthly, in 2016 (was it Dec 15 2016?), ANZ may choose to give you $101.01 of ANZ shares (pretend the VWAP is $33.67 for simplicity).... so, you would get 3 ANZ shares... but, you may not be able to sell them, (away on holiday, not knowing/able to sell them before they actually hit your broker, etc, etc, etc) for a couple of days... (hell, even overnight I suppose)... and the SP could plummet to $20.... I mean imagine if they calculated the VWAP at 5pm 16th December 2016... then, at 7pm, they released an interim report that showed the bank would pay only 10c dividends for the next 12 months... ASX:ANZ would open at, say, $15... and you can only sell at $15 (3*15= $45)...

Obviously, the way to avoid this is by selling them 'on the market' a couple of days before hand at, say, $99.80 each... or, realising the very low possibility that ANZ would screw $750M of CPS2 holders up ... never being able to raise billions from Hybrids on the ASX again (investors have a memory!)...

Finally, as has been stated, what if, for whatever reason, you need this money before 2016... there is the danger (IMHO, very low), that they will trade at under $100 (barring a GFC, I can't see this being very below $100... and, even then, not very very significantly below).



> Great explanation, thank you very much! Maybe ANZ should farm out some of their documentation to you



Your welcome On my todo list today (as has been for the last 2 weeks!) Is to write an article on hybrids... but, I'm busy all day tomorrow (ha! I get to play with Cheetahs at Monarto Zoo!), and I'm getting cut up on Friday (ankle surgery)... perhaps I'll do a rushed job when i get home at midnight in around 24 hours... hmm. We'll see.


----------



## ricee007 (5 December 2009)

I generally dislike copying my posts between forums... but, perhaps some will find this useful.

"I will not substantiate these numbers, or declare them accurate. I just thought it was an interesting find.

According to ComSec:
WBC P/E 18.17
NAB 20.56
CBA 16.68
ANZ 13.39.

HOWEVER, furthermore, I would expect ANZ to have more growth than the others (Asian strategy, Australian customer service initiative before the others, and has the lowest market cap out of the Big 4 banks, HIGHEST T1 RATIO BY A COUNTRY MILE, aggressive CEO, etc).

Generally, high P/E ratios (20, etc) are from those companies with high growth potential (ERJ, etc)...
I'm not sure how updated those P/E figures are. Not sure if thats at close of last FY, or current, or what they are... but, I found it interesting nonetheless..."


----------



## Largesse (6 December 2009)

why don't you take the time to check whether the figures are accurate?

doesn't take long, just a quick read through the most recent annual report and some simple maths


----------



## oldblue (6 December 2009)

Largesse said:


> why don't you take the time to check whether the figures are accurate?
> 
> doesn't take long, just a quick read through the most recent annual report and some simple maths




One of the problems with P/E's of course is that they can be historical or prospective, and if the former are they based on last year's NPAT or on an annualised interim figure? If it's a prospective P/E, whose forecast is it based on ? Or is it an analysts' consensus forecast? So it's a big trap for unwary players!

We need to know the answers to these questions to comment on CommSec's numbers and to bear in mind the "rubberiness" of any such numbers.


----------



## condog (6 December 2009)

Montgomery compares CBA to NAB - 27th Nov 2009
From:
http://bigpondnews.com/articles/Finance/2009/11/27/Montgomery_compares_CBA_to_NAB_399252.html

'In terms of economic performance, CBA is vastly better than the NAB,' he said.

'If I owned NAB I would probably switch to CBA if I wanted to remain in the banking space.'

From
http://contribute.abc.net.au/_Roger-Montgomery/audio/600631/32422.html

On ABC Radio Roger Predicts NAB's ROE dropping from 21% last year to 12.5% in 18 months time

He claimed in another interview that CBA was the only Bank to raise ROe as a result of its capital raising during the GFC, while all other banks have substantially lowered ROE


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## ricee007 (6 December 2009)

Largesse said:


> why don't you take the time to check whether the figures are accurate?
> 
> doesn't take long, just a quick read through the most recent annual report and some simple maths



Honestly, 80percent because i can't be bothered, and, it doesn't matter to me. ANZ would remain my first choice exposure for otger reasons. I just thught this provided a small amount of extra evidence.

Partly because i was hoping someone else would do It. Hey, at least i''m honest. I would like to think i contributed a lot to page 5....

roe for one year throug the gfc is meaningless. Anz was gaining equity, which allows them to smash into Asia now and expand heavily. Any day at all a nww announcment could come saying they spent one billion on Asian assets.

Having said that, i am yet to meet anyone at alll who prefers investing in nab. Very, few in westpac, several in cba, most in anz. Having said that, of course, this is mainly uneducated forum members...so, take that with a grain of salt (thouugh, i do rly disprefer nab)

kind regards


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## gooner (6 December 2009)

condog said:


> Montgomery compares CBA to NAB - 27th Nov 2009
> From:
> http://bigpondnews.com/articles/Finance/2009/11/27/Montgomery_compares_CBA_to_NAB_399252.html
> 
> ...




ROE is a fairly meaningless measure for banks unless you adjust for goodwill, size of wealth business and other intangibles as well as stripping out hybrids which are sometimes included in equity in the balance sheet. If you do that, the bank with the worse ROE may be in the one to invest in as it has the most improvement to catch up with the others..........


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## condog (6 December 2009)

gooner said:


> ROE is a fairly meaningless measure for banks unless you adjust for goodwill, size of wealth business and other intangibles as well as stripping out hybrids which are sometimes included in equity in the balance sheet. If you do that, the bank with the worse ROE may be in the one to invest in as it has the most improvement to catch up with the others..........




Whilst I hear what you say in in a small way agree with a small part of what your saying I do disagree

ROE is the most significant financial ratio bar none - in isolation....and whilst I and hopefully every person in here would not be stupid enough to make decisions in isolation.....When you have four banks selling basically the same products in similar markets for the bulk of their business.......Id really like to know what is much more important than ROE... After all what are shareholders buying....a portion of that equity......and what do they want.....the best ROE they can get....

The market has a habit of looking through the rubbish and establishing real value on a regular basis......time will tell.....

The problem with ANZ, WBC, and NAB is they heavily diluted equity when SP where lowest........


----------



## drlog (7 December 2009)

oldblue said:


> One of the problems with P/E's of course is that they can be historical or prospective, and if the former are they based on last year's NPAT or on an annualised interim figure? If it's a prospective P/E, whose forecast is it based on ? Or is it an analysts' consensus forecast? So it's a big trap for unwary players!
> 
> We need to know the answers to these questions to comment on CommSec's numbers and to bear in mind the "rubberiness" of any such numbers.




As far as I understand it, Commsec takes the median forecast growth. In ANZ's case, it is 5 forecasts giving -8% then 23.6% growth over the next 2 years. They calculate the P/E on the previous years earnings and next years earnings forecast using a weighted average from EOFY to the next EOFY. So if the price doesnt move at all, the P/E in commsec will change slightly from day to day.

I would expect the commsec P/Es for a big company like ANZ would be correct (likewise for the other big banks). However, in the interest of being 100% correct, 

21.98 / 1.683 = 13.06 *TRAILING* PE

Considering that ANZ will shrink (according to the forecast) the real PE should be a little higher.


----------



## ricee007 (8 December 2009)

Howdi,

I wrote 
http://ozbankers.com/index.php?option=com_content&task=view&id=30&Itemid=29

In which I devoted a bit of time to ANZ CPS2.... might be of interest to some?


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## Bill M (8 December 2009)

ricee007 said:


> Howdi,
> 
> I wrote
> http://ozbankers.com/index.php?option=com_content&task=view&id=30&Itemid=29
> ...



Hello ricee007, I read your article and found it very informative. It reconfirms all my thoughts on the subject and is very helpful to anyone who might want to invest in hybrids. I am subscribing to the ANZ CPS2, I need some interest income and I reckon that as interest rate margins reduce these will be nice little earners, good now and even better in the future, cheers.


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## ricee007 (8 December 2009)

Bill M said:


> Hello ricee007, I read your article and found it very informative. It reconfirms all my thoughts on the subject and is very helpful to anyone who might want to invest in hybrids. I am subscribing to the ANZ CPS2, I need some interest income and I reckon that as interest rate margins reduce these will be nice little earners, good now and even better in the future, cheers.



90 day BBSW was 4.04% on the 3rd, 4.06% on the 4th, 4.1033% on the 7th... it's rising... we might see a 'perfect storm' of credit markets thawing, the BBSW rising, money re-entering markets and companies becoming less risky....

This bodes well for those of us who hold hybrids. Pity after selling my MXUPA (temporarily), I only have $4,600 in hybrids .

Thank you for your kind thoughts.

I don't *mind* ANZCPS2.... I just think that the expected yield is just that little bit too low for me, given the other opportunities that I would rather at the moment.... 5% capital gain is certainly feasible within 12 months though.... and with interest payments of circa $7.60.... 12.6% for the first 12 months is possible, and not bad considering how miniscule the downside risk is. These will pay a lot more than inflation.... and, up to 12.6% in 12 months is possible....... enough for me to consider it at least.

The second biggest hurdle was, I don't have $5,000 cash. If I could have bought $2,500... I wouldn't have minded quite as much and perhaps would have.


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## The Owls (29 April 2010)

*ANZ Bank*

I wonder what companies have to do to make the major plays in the stock market happy, The ANZ announced the first half return with a 36% rise in profit, dividends up 13%. All the knockers would be very happy if their pay went up by the same percentages. Why do the major players panic and drop their bundles.


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## doogie_goes_off (29 April 2010)

*Re: ANZ Bank*

Sorry to be annoying Owls, but can I just suggest that you search the forum and add to existing threads for companies, I'm sure there's an ANZ thread already going and it makes the moderators job hard if they are constantly culling duplicate threads. Cheers.


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## drsmith (29 April 2010)

*Re: ANZ Bank*



The Owls said:


> I wonder what companies have to do to make the major plays in the stock market happy, The ANZ announced the first half return with a 36% rise in profit, dividends up 13%. All the knockers would be very happy if their pay went up by the same percentages. Why do the major players panic and drop their bundles.



Earnings results are typically factored into share prices well before the announcement. Just look at the bank's share price over the past 12 months and today's change relative to that.

If earnings were expected to be up 30 something percent and were up 60 something percent, that would be something to celibrate.


----------



## oldblue (29 April 2010)

*Re: ANZ Bank*



drsmith said:


> Earnings results are typically factored into share prices well before the announcement. Just look at the bank's share price over the past 12 months and today's change relative to that.
> 
> If earnings were expected to be up 30 something percent and were up 60 something percent, that would be something to celibrate.




All that is true but in ANZ's case it seems that consensus earnings figures were met and even slightly exceeded.

Possibly a case of looking for an excuse to take a few profits in an uncertain market?


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## The Owls (29 April 2010)

*Re: ANZ Bank*



doogie_goes_off said:


> Sorry to be annoying Owls, but can I just suggest that you search the forum and add to existing threads for companies, I'm sure there's an ANZ thread already going and it makes the moderators job hard if they are constantly culling duplicate threads. Cheers.




Sorry for not checking far enough back. I looked at 3 odd pages in the search section  and thought there was not a thread for the ANZ. In future I will look at more pages. On the other hand is it possible to filter out all other threads with ANZ in them when doing the search.  Thanks for any help.


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## ricee007 (29 April 2010)

Concensus figures seem to have been met (during GFC, this leads to buying... out of GFC this can lead to dropping).
Dividend slightly below expectations.
Whole sharemarket is having a red day.
They talked Europe down a lot.
Low volume day, so, SP action (whilst not completely immaterial) doesn't mean much.



All up = red opening. Still a chance of a black closing.


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## BrightGreenGlow (7 May 2010)

Can someone tell me why ANZ has been a massive sell off this week? This had a good profit and better dividend. I understand it went ex-divi onTuesday (or wednesday) I've forgotten but its tanked hard.

I thought ANZ was a good bank to buy into. Asian presence, good solid base, one of the big 4 and good consensus.

NAB is a waste of time, SUN is a dog and WPC has a female for a CEO so should I buy back into CBA? :S  poor ANZ.... whyy???


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## Dark1975 (7 May 2010)

BrightGreenGlow said:


> Can someone tell me why ANZ has been a massive sell off this week? This had a good profit and better dividend. I understand it went ex-divi onTuesday (or wednesday) I've forgotten but its tanked hard.
> 
> I thought ANZ was a good bank to buy into. Asian presence, good solid base, one of the big 4 and good consensus.
> 
> NAB is a waste of time, SUN is a dog and WPC has a female for a CEO so should I buy back into CBA? :S  poor ANZ.... whyy???




I think it dosn't matter of which type of bank stock you are buying,it's gonna take a beating due to woes of europe(greece debt etc,etc).We do follow the dow,So i would stay away from banks,and non-defensive stocks for the short-term..Because we could begin to see the false dawn unwinding shortly,We could be in for a wild ride.
And disagree with your statement about gale kelly being c.e.o of westpac on not picking your stock.She has actually given westpac a 32% profit increase.So not chosing a stock because she's a female is sexist and just wrong.


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## BrightGreenGlow (8 May 2010)

I shouldn't be so sexist but I don't believe she is doing a good job for Westpac. Seems too interested in her looks rather than a company?


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## oldblue (8 May 2010)

BrightGreenGlow said:


> I shouldn't be so sexist but I don't believe she is doing a good job for Westpac. Seems too interested in her looks rather than a company?




Is that so? Must say I havn't noticed.

My only concern would be that her background with St George means that she has a heavily retail orientation which is probably showing up in WBC's recent emphasis on mortgage lending, possibly at the expense of their corporate and business banking customers. Whether this is the right strategy at this stage only time will tell


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## Julia (8 May 2010)

BrightGreenGlow said:


> I shouldn't be so sexist but I don't believe she is doing a good job for Westpac. Seems too interested in her looks rather than a company?



What a fascinating suggestion.   Perhaps you could enlighten us as to your  basis for saying she is more interested in her looks than the company?


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## cutz (8 May 2010)

BrightGreenGlow said:


> I shouldn't be so sexist but I don't believe she is doing a good job for Westpac. Seems too interested in her looks rather than a company?




Personally I think G.K. is doing a brilliant job at WBC, my favorite out of the big four, the only thing that’s making me a little nervous is any potential fallout from a property crunch.


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## BrightGreenGlow (9 May 2010)

Her merging WBC with her old bank plus a $6m bonus pay.... no one is worth that. Westpac has always been crap to deal with and she is South African... no one likes that country! haha


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## Paradiso (12 May 2011)

What's up with this stock? 

I am tempted to buy in today with price at monthly low but I am not sure why ANZ is getting battered so much compared to the other big banks. I know ANZ ex dividend today but still even leading up to today over the last week or so ANZ has lost about 10% but NAB, WBC, CBA all kept gaining.

Anyone else looking at this stock?


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## VSntchr (12 May 2011)

Paradiso said:


> What's up with this stock?
> 
> I am tempted to buy in today with price at monthly low but I am not sure why ANZ is getting battered so much compared to the other big banks. I know ANZ ex dividend today but still even leading up to today over the last week or so ANZ has lost about 10% but NAB, WBC, CBA all kept gaining.
> 
> Anyone else looking at this stock?




Its ex-div today. Meaning alot of people who bought simply for the divvy are selling out, thus causing the price to fall...


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## KurwaJegoMac (12 May 2011)

Paradiso said:


> What's up with this stock?
> 
> I am tempted to buy in today with price at monthly low but I am not sure why ANZ is getting battered so much compared to the other big banks. I know ANZ ex dividend today but still even leading up to today over the last week or so ANZ has lost about 10% but NAB, WBC, CBA all kept gaining.
> 
> Anyone else looking at this stock?




As you rightly pointed out, today's drop is due to the ex dividend. As for it's fall in recent weeks - if you have a read of the mid year results announcements they didn't quite hit the targets expected by analysts - a large portion of this was due to the Aussie doller hurting whatever profits they make through international sources.


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## Paradiso (12 May 2011)

KurwaJegoMac said:


> As you rightly pointed out, today's drop is due to the ex dividend. As for it's fall in recent weeks - if you have a read of the mid year results announcements they didn't quite hit the targets expected by analysts - a large portion of this was due to the Aussie doller hurting whatever profits they make through international sources.





Thanks for the info. I had a read of the analyst report on Etrade. The high dollar is indeed the culprit here. 

So tempted here  On Etrade they have a Accumulate recommendation on the stock, with 2 brokers recommending Hold, 1 broker recommending Buy and 3 brokers recommending Strong Buy. None are recommending Sell. And the aussie dollar is falling. I think I am going to go ahead and buy some.


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## Intrinsic Value (13 May 2011)

Paradiso said:


> Thanks for the info. I had a read of the analyst report on Etrade. The high dollar is indeed the culprit here.
> 
> So tempted here  On Etrade they have a Accumulate recommendation on the stock, with 2 brokers recommending Hold, 1 broker recommending Buy and 3 brokers recommending Strong Buy. None are recommending Sell. And the aussie dollar is falling. I think I am going to go ahead and buy some.




You should view falling price of a good quality undervalued stock as a buying opportunity.

ANZ probably represents the best value of all the banks at the moment.

CBA is a better quality stock but overpriced at the moment.


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## robz7777 (13 May 2011)

I don't think you can really go too wrong with Aussie banks, if any were to fail there would be some other more serious things to worry about!! 

Looking just at the dividend of 6.1% you are doing ok even if the SP doesn't do too much, and with fully franked dividends it is an even better picture. IMO if the share price bounces from 22.50 to 25 in a couple of weeks I am happy to take the short term profit, so either way happy to hold long term or short term if the price is right.


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## VSntchr (13 May 2011)

Intrinsic Value said:


> You should view falling price of a good quality undervalued stock as a buying opportunity.
> 
> ANZ probably represents the best value of all the banks at the moment.
> 
> CBA is a better quality stock but overpriced at the moment.




Thanks Roger, lol.


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## Intrinsic Value (13 May 2011)

VSntchr said:


> Thanks Roger, lol.




He's made me a lot of money


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## Mayfair (15 June 2011)

I still like CBA more than ANZ but am definitely considering picking up ANZ.


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## ricee007 (15 June 2011)

Mayfair said:


> I still like CBA more than ANZ but am definitely considering picking up ANZ.



 Okay, but, to add to the discussion... why do you feel that way?

Will AU Banks grow faster than Asian Banks?

Does ANZ have bad management?

Are you worried about ANZ home loan exposures, but not CBA?
Are you worried about ANZ business loan exposures, but not CBA?

*What* makes you prefer CBA?


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## ginar (15 June 2011)

ricee007 said:


> Okay, but, to add to the discussion... why do you feel that way?
> 
> Will AU Banks grow faster than Asian Banks?
> 
> ...




The fact they go ex on aug 15 is a big point for me ..................


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## oldblue (16 June 2011)

Yes, I'd like to see some reasoning behind a bald statement of "gut feel" for a stock. Otherwise, it amounts to a meaningless ramp, IMO.

Meanwhile, ANZ has commenced banking operations in India. Let's hope it is more successful than the previous ill-fated Grindlays experience!

http://asx.com.au/asxpdf/20110616/pdf/41z7qwfvx1h8wn.pdf


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## alexc2005 (3 September 2011)

Can someone explain what the latest CPS3 offer is all about?


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## boofhead (3 September 2011)

alexc2005 said:


> Can someone explain what the latest CPS3 offer is all about?




Have you downloaded the prospectus? Do you understand what their previous issues are for? CPS3 is different to the others because of Basel III. It is a converting preference share.


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## alexc2005 (3 September 2011)

boofhead said:


> Have you downloaded the prospectus? Do you understand what their previous issues are for? CPS3 is different to the others because of Basel III. It is a converting preference share.




Yeah i have downloaded the prospectus. But to be honest i don't really get what its all about..


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## niknah (4 September 2011)

The payout is based on the Bank bill rate which is usually a similar number to the reserve bank's interest rate.

Here're some alternatives to CPS3... 
http://www.bankingday.com/nl06_news_selected.php?act=2&stream=1&selkey=12079&hlc=2&hlw=


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## Danneman (4 September 2011)

alexc2005 said:


> Yeah i have downloaded the prospectus. But to be honest i don't really get what its all about..




I've heard some rumors they're going on an acquisition splurge somewhere in Asia. Not sure if that's what the CPS3 is for.
Yield is supposedly the 180 day bank bill rate + 3.2% (or something).





I've got a sneaky suspicion the 180 day bank bill is soon to head down down down... hence why ANZ is releasing this now...

disclaimer: I'm a newbie, so don't take this too seriously. And it's my first post...

Cheers

Daniel


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## oldblue (4 September 2011)

They're not rumours, Danneman. ANZ have been quite open about their strategy to expand their interests in Asia, which are already more extensive than those of the other three pillars. Nothing big or spectacular I would expect but rather incremental gains in selected countries through shareholdings and JV's. At least I hope so.

Banks are always raising new capital/borrowings and the new Basel capital adequacy "rules" increase their requirements in this regard.

And welcome to the forum!


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## Garpal Gumnut (4 September 2011)

Danneman said:


> I've heard some rumors they're going on an acquisition splurge somewhere in Asia. Not sure if that's what the CPS3 is for.
> Yield is supposedly the 180 day bank bill rate + 3.2% (or something).
> 
> View attachment 44354
> ...




I'd agree Daniel, I looked at this when Comsec sent the offer, but interest rates are more likely to fall in Australia than rise, so it makes it less attractive, and if there is a recovery the ANZ sp will rise.

gg


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## TremorChrist (10 September 2011)

Found this negative review of CPS3:
http://www.intelligentinvestor.com.au/articles/ANZ-CPS3-Convertible-Preference-Shares-ANZPC/ANZ-CPS3-A-three-strike-failure.cfm
Article makes sense to me, and I actually found it quite educational (at least for a newbie like me); so I'm definitely avoiding this offer. Already have ordinary shares in ANZ anyway.


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## ricee007 (10 September 2011)

TremorChrist said:


> Found this negative review of CPS3:
> http://www.intelligentinvestor.com.au/articles/ANZ-CPS3-Convertible-Preference-Shares-ANZPC/ANZ-CPS3-A-three-strike-failure.cfm
> Article makes sense to me, and I actually found it quite educational (at least for a newbie like me); so I'm definitely avoiding this offer. Already have ordinary shares in ANZ anyway.



Slightly harsh in my opinion.

I mean... the articvle is flawed. Just because it's a good deal for ANZ, doesn't mean it's a bad deal for investors. Using that logic, no-one would ever get a home loan, or even get a job... both parties CAN win in a transaction. We know this because that article recommends you purchase OTHER assets that are for sale.

The other key part of the article is:
"In the event of a financial cyclone, though, these preference shares will behave much more like equity than debt."

And, that is correct. However, in a 'large financial downturn' or 'normal' or 'good' or 'great' or ANYTHING short of a 'financial cyclone'.... the CPS3 should hold up quite well. At the end of the day, their price may go down.... but, if you can hold till 2016, that's perfectly fine. Otherwise, they should still be paying dividends.

"They’re barely worth the paper they’re written on. If ANZ’s tier 1 capital falls below 5.125% (it’s currently about 8.5% and was 5.2% in 2007)"
 Well, yes.... but, it was also at around 10% during the GFC as the bank took a conservative approach. Back in 2007, T1 ratios of 5.2 was normal. Now, post-GFC, APRA requirements (and global standards) are higher.... and ANZ won't go back down to 5.125, baring a major catastrophe... in which case, the ordinary shares would get so entirely pummeled that it is not funny.

$100 is probably a fair price... their other 3.1% CPS are trading at circa $101, but have sllllightly more protection.... so, $100 is probably fair. THey were obviously quite oversubscribed though, so there is no reason that they can't (even temporarily) go to $101.

As to whether or not I'll buy? Almost certainly not, as I don't want to spend $5,000. If they fall below $100 once trading, I'll consider picking up a small parcel of $3000 or so.


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## boofhead (10 September 2011)

Appears due to high demand they went for 3.1% which is a disincentive. In the short term rates don't seem inclined to rise. It is slighly higher risk because of some differences contained in the terms.


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## LoadingStock (10 May 2012)

*ANZ help!*

Hi All

I am new to stocks, I am not sure if I am typing at the right section of the forum, but I need some desperate help 

I purchased some ANZ shares when it was $23.85 last week, it’s been dropping since, I was hoping it will go back up, but it’s continue to drop.

Could someone please tell me why it’s drop 4.5% today? I can’t find any bad news.

Also should I sell it, will it keep dropping? Any ideas when it will start to go back up?

Thank you


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## boofhead (10 May 2012)

Today it went ex-dividend. http://www.asx.com.au/research/dividends.htm is something worth a little read.


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## LoadingStock (10 May 2012)

boofhead said:


> Today it went ex-dividend. http://www.asx.com.au/research/dividends.htm is something worth a little read.




Hi thanks for that, i am very new, where can i see the dividend dates of the companies?

And I very dumb question, so even if I got the shares last week, I will still get paid the full dividend? or only a % of it?

thanks


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## SurfacedStudio (10 May 2012)

LoadingStock said:


> Hi thanks for that, i am very new, where can i see the dividend dates of the companies?
> 
> And I very dumb question, so even if I got the shares last week, I will still get paid the full dividend? or only a % of it?
> 
> thanks




Have a search on asx.com.au - you can usually find past and upcoming dividends for all Australian companies there 
Here's the link to ANZ
http://www.asx.com.au/asx/research/companyInfo.do?by=asxCode&asxCode=ANZ

You will get paid the full dividend as long as you purchased the shares before the ex-dividend date.


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## Garpal Gumnut (5 March 2013)

With some talk of the 4 Pillars being demolished, it would be prescient to look at ANZ for future profit in any rationalisation.

It seems to be following elliot analysis with it's wave movements on the monthly, being in a wave 3.

More interesting though is a 5 year monthly chart showing a possible major resistance point at just above $31, attained in late 2008 with a double top.

If it moves beyond this on volume I may consider jumping on, though I have a very profitable run on WBC going from $23, which makes me loathe to jump.

Thoughts on this would be appreciated, even by fundamental analysts on ASF.







gg


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## Garpal Gumnut (8 March 2013)

Not much change since I last posted.

Volume has been falling on the most recent rise so I am still conservative in my views on ANZ. 

I won't enter unless it breaks that previous high in Oct 2007.

gg


----------



## clinta44 (24 April 2013)

Garpal Gumnut said:


> I won't enter unless it breaks that previous high in Oct 2007.
> 
> gg




with a SP at $30 today - this is quite possible. Interim results on Tuesday if the market likes the announcement it could definitely pass through the 2007 barrier.


----------



## odds-on (30 April 2013)

Might be of interest...

http://www.smh.com.au/business/banki...428-2imp5.html 

Cheers


----------



## Yacob (30 April 2013)

What a day, only good things to come i imagine looking at the report, future looking bright for ANZ


----------



## ricee007 (30 April 2013)

Garpal Gumnut said:


> Not much change since I last posted.
> 
> Volume has been falling on the most recent rise so I am still conservative in my views on ANZ.
> 
> ...




Wasn't that today ? Are you in?


----------



## Tyler Durden (30 April 2013)

Remember like a year or two ago, there were articles saying ANZ would be the best bank to bank on because of their foray into Asia. I bought into that at just below $24...looks like it has paid off, albeit for different reasons.


----------



## TikoMike (30 April 2013)

Wish I had more capital during 2009. So glad that I have held since then. People still skeptical about their Asian adventure but ANZ were buying up over there when things were very cheap just like ANZ were cheap themselves at the time.


----------



## heathlancaster (17 June 2013)

Can anyone forsee ANZ falling below the $25 mark again . if so i am tempted to buy


----------



## Tyler Durden (17 June 2013)

heathlancaster said:


> Can anyone forsee ANZ falling below the $25 mark again . if so i am tempted to buy




I think it depends a lot on Ben Bernanke on Wednesday and the world economy. If both are not liked by investors, all banks could drop significantly. Just my


----------



## Tyler Durden (1 May 2014)

Today's SP action baffles me - 11% rise in half year profit and 14% increase in interim dividend, yet the SP fell 1.2%.

Some might say this was "priced in" before the announcement, but these always seem to come in hindsight. Further, it appears that the results beat analysts' expectations.


----------



## ROE (1 May 2014)

Classic buy on rumour Sell on facts


----------



## coolcup (1 May 2014)

Tyler Durden said:


> Today's SP action baffles me - 11% rise in half year profit and 14% increase in interim dividend, yet the SP fell 1.2%.
> 
> Some might say this was "priced in" before the announcement, but these always seem to come in hindsight. Further, it appears that the results beat analysts' expectations.




From what I have read the result was roughly in line with consensus and only reached consensus due to higher one off trading profits (unlikely to be repeated) and lower impairment provisions. Both of these are considered "lower quality" contributors. Also investors were disappointed that ANZ would not neutralise the effect of the DRP by buying those shares on-market. Instead all the shares would be issued, hurting future ROE and diluting the impact of the dividend increase (higher dividend but effectively the company is issuing capital to pay it out).


----------



## bigdog (29 August 2014)

I hold ANZ shares and the final dividend is paid on the first workday in July each year.

 I have changed accountants this year for the preparation of my SMSF accounts

My previous accountant included the ANZ dividend paid on July 1 2013 in my 2013 accounts.
Paid 01/07/2013 
Record Date 15/05/2013
Sundry debtor accrued for the dividend amount 

My accountant preparing my 2014 accounts has told me that the ANZ dividend paid on July 1 2014 should not be included in 2014 SMSF accounts!

I could not specific internet links for dividend paid in July with prior accounting year record date!

What is the correct treatment and can you please advise links


----------



## Sharkman (29 August 2014)

bigdog said:


> I hold ANZ shares and the final dividend is paid on the first workday in July each year.
> 
> I have changed accountants this year for the preparation of my SMSF accounts
> 
> ...




i don't know if it's the correct treatment or not, but FWIW - i regularly use dividend stripping tactics on ANZ thru my corporate trust and my accountants have put it as income in the following FY every time for the last few years - ATO has never complained.


----------



## rimtas (19 November 2014)

I was wondering almost half year what is going on with ANZ, until the most recent development. It was just kept going in threes, until finaly it sported a Running Triangle. 

Wave E is still in progress but the most part of it is done it's course. Ideally it shoud bottom closer to 31 mark.  What comes next will be a surprise to everyone, because I can't find anyone is seeing a Triangle, which means the pattern has high probability. 

What is even more interesting, the same Triangular structures can be seen on WBC and BOQ, NAB doesn't has one but it is also in the late stages of a multimonth sideways correction and should find a bottom soon. 
CBA has a wave structure that can be in line with the next move as well. 

The only thing is a question what this Triangle is doing here, how it incorporates into the larger picture. And as banks have a heavy weight on All ords index, how these kind of events will impact the XAO structure.  But I'll leave those to think about later,  because a high probability setup is in the works and need to take a position before anyone realizes it would happen.  It is very tradable and has a good and clear entry/stop/ target levels. I like those king o setups, especialy in a timeframe like this.


----------



## kushi212 (6 August 2015)

Hi everyone,
Not even a single share of anz was traded today. It seems that trading was closed in in this share today.
Does anyone know the reason for this ??
I haven't heard of this before. Whole of the market was traded and only one stock not traded.

Thanks


----------



## galumay (6 August 2015)

kushi212 said:


> Hi everyone,
> Not even a single share of anz was traded today. It seems that trading was closed in in this share today.
> Does anyone know the reason for this ??
> I haven't heard of this before. Whole of the market was traded and only one stock not traded.
> ...




If you check the announcements for ANZ on the ASX site you will see they have announced a capital raising and hence there is a suspension of trading. Entirely normal.


----------



## boofhead (6 August 2015)

Go to ASX and get the annoucements. An extract of it is 'ANZ today announced a fully underwritten institutional share placement to raise $2.5 billion. The
Placement will be followed by an offer to ANZ’s eligible Australian and New Zealand shareholders who
will have the opportunity to participate in a Share Purchase Plan (SPP) to raise around $500 million. The
SPP is not underwritten.'


----------



## Toyota Lexcen (7 August 2015)

wow, you reckon retail investors going to take up the offer? i wonder what price the institutional investors bought in for

is this good for shareholders in long term?


----------



## UMike (7 August 2015)

Toyota Lexcen said:


> wow, you reckon retail investors going to take up the offer? i wonder what price the institutional investors bought in for
> 
> is this good for shareholders in long term?



 Dunno but I'm really shyty about it.
Seems to have brought all the banks down.

I've taken it as an opportunity to top up on ANZ and WBC.

The institutional Investers have already taken 2.5 Bil so ANZ does not really need the Retail investors take it all up.
If I am right the SP should be around or just above the 30.95 (minus 2%) anyways. 
This hit has alot of shock value priced in.


----------



## Klogg (7 August 2015)

UMike said:


> Dunno but I'm really shyty about it.
> Seems to have brought all the banks down.
> 
> I've taken it as an opportunity to top up on ANZ and WBC.
> ...




I'm not quite sure why this is shocking. APRA have been informing us about increased capital requirements for investor mortgages (i.e. increased risk weighting for those that have advanced BASEL accreditation) for months now. In fact, NAB raised capital for this reason as well, so I don't understand the surprise.

To fully understand profitability of the big four banks, take a look at the percentage of investor loans made (vs overall credit, and vs housing loans), risk weightings and new APRA requirements. On that basis, it's hard to imagine banks can increase profits just through writing mortgages, which has been their source of profitability to date.


----------



## Ves (7 August 2015)

Klogg said:


> I'm not quite sure why this is shocking. APRA have been informing us about increased capital requirements for investor mortgages (i.e. increased risk weighting for those that have advanced BASEL accreditation) for months now. In fact, NAB raised capital for this reason as well, so I don't understand the surprise.



Cash profit for the quarter was also below expectations for some analysts.   Too much growth priced in,  I suspect.

Most analysts were under the impression that ANZ wouldn't need to raise additional capital because they had flagged assets sales for this specific purpose.  There were also comments amongst analysts that the DRP would have gone a long way towards making up any capital shortfall before 1 July 2016.

This pretty much confirms that the asset sales aren't chugged along as planned, surplus capital generation may be weaker than expected....  so they've had to dilute shareholders by about 3-3.5% instead.

Market was definitely aware of the APRA changes,   but I suspect the way that they were raised is a surprise.

NAB raised most of the capital in May/June because it was required as part of the demerger of Greater Western  (they needed to provide liquidity / emergency funding in case the **** hit the fan).  

The next question, aside from which bank is next, is...   if the economy keeps slowing down,  will they need to raise even more capital?


----------



## McLovin (7 August 2015)

Klogg said:


> I'm not quite sure why this is shocking.




Neither am I. And watch out because there's a rumour that CBA might be looking to raise up to $10b. Why wouldn't they, we're in the midst of strong lending, equity is dirt cheap for Aussie banks and who knows what the future holds, although one could take a stab in the dark.



> “I only buy in areas I think are undervalued, but will see price growth soon. After the value of my properties grows, I take out the equity to purchase more,” Mr Fleming said.



http://www.dailytelegraph.com.au/re...property-tycoons/story-fni0cly6-1227446517160

If a pizza boy wearing culottes can be a property whiz then we all can! What could possibly go wrong!?!


----------



## Klogg (7 August 2015)

Ah, I wasn't aware of the asset sales - I should read in more detail next time. Thanks




Ves said:


> The next question, aside from which bank is next, is...   if the economy keeps slowing down,  will they need to raise even more capital?




The other question here for me, is if APRA are enforcing more on the banks that we're not aware of. They seem to have a 10% residential investor loan growth cap as 'guidance'; however, given the reaction of banks to reduce residential investor loans, I get the impression APRA are really laying down the law behind the scenes.

I wonder what else they may force on the banks.


----------



## skyQuake (7 August 2015)

McLovin said:


> Neither am I. And watch out because there's a rumour that CBA might be looking to raise up to $10b. Why wouldn't they, we're in the midst of strong lending, equity is dirt cheap for Aussie banks and who knows what the future holds, although one could take a stab in the dark.
> 
> 
> http://www.dailytelegraph.com.au/re...property-tycoons/story-fni0cly6-1227446517160
> ...






> “I only buy _*sectors*_ I think are undervalued, but will see price growth soon. After the value of my _*shares*_ grows, I take out the equity to purchase more,”




This can only end well

------------------------------------------

Back to ANZ there is now real fear that CBA will raise $$$ and knock the market down another few percent


----------



## tinhat (7 August 2015)

I bought today for Mum's pension account at $30.44 . 8% gross yield sounds alright to me - even with a flat earnings outlook.


----------



## Ves (7 August 2015)

Another opinion is that the banks could have easy funded these capital requirements from the swathes of money they will pay out in dividends before July 2016.

Of course if dividends were cut temporarily,  that'd be bad for the share price.    And when your executive remuneration bonuses are linked to total shareholder return  (TSR) that's also bad for the people making the decision.

What is bad for the share price in the short-term in this case is almost certain to be better than diluting existing shareholders in the long-term.  Surely?

PS: compare how NAB did their raising to ANZ's method.   I wonder which one was better for retail holders? Pretty obvious.


----------



## tinhat (7 August 2015)

Ves said:


> Another opinion is that the banks could have easy funded these capital requirements from the swathes of money they will pay out in dividends before July 2016.
> 
> Of course if dividends were cut temporarily,  that'd be bad for the share price.    And when your executive remuneration bonuses are linked to total shareholder return  (TSR) that's also bad for the people making the decision.
> 
> ...




I don't understand what the problem is. Everyone knew that a capital raising was likely. The $2.5b dilutes shareholders by 3% and the market reacts by dropping the price by 7% (on the basis of flat earnings outlook and increased provision for bad debts). Gross yield after dilution still >8%. A good day to buy in my opinion.


----------



## Klogg (7 August 2015)

Ves said:


> Another opinion is that the banks could have easy funded these capital requirements from the swathes of money they will pay out in dividends before July 2016.
> 
> Of course if dividends were cut temporarily,  that'd be bad for the share price.    And when your executive remuneration bonuses are linked to total shareholder return  (TSR) that's also bad for the people making the decision.
> 
> ...




I agree completely, and I think you've identified the problem - the measurement against TSR. Cut the dividend, and you'll have a huge amount of people exiting.

Bank shares are treated more like bonds than equities; the terms 'yield' and 'bank shares' are pretty much synonymous.




> Gross yield after dilution still >8%. A good day to buy in my opinion.




Buying based solely on yield could be the problem. Buying a bank for 1.8*Book at what could be near the top of the short term debt cycle might not pan out well. But then again, I don't know enough about banks.


----------



## notting (7 August 2015)

Mike Smith pops up in the media as a bit of a rubber neck a little too much for my liking.

It troubles me most on the Asian investment front.  If this guy's character is that thin,  calling the new NAB ceo a rookie and denying ANZ needed a raising 3 months ago, then doing a pretty big one, 3.5 Billion is big, whilst he says it's small.  It's not a good look. Poo Bear has lost the plot.

Probably is a buying opportunity but I'm not sure about this guy any more.


----------



## tinhat (8 August 2015)

Klogg said:


> Buying based solely on yield could be the problem. Buying a bank for 1.8*Book at what could be near the top of the short term debt cycle might not pan out well. But then again, I don't know enough about banks.




I don't know much about banks either, except that they seem to make a lot of money. Without reading into the figures, I worked out some averages of the performance of a couple of financial ratios going back to 1989, which is as far back as my data source goes. Using the end of financial year values:

Average Return on Equity: 20%
Average Price-Earnings Ratio: 12
Average Dividend Pay-out Ratio (DPS/EPS): 67%

Current ROE: 19%
Current PE: 12
Current Payout Ratio: 70%

ROE is likely to remain under pressure in the medium term.

Interestingly, yesterday's low placed the price smack onto the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement level of the run-up from  August 2011 to April 2015. I will likely buy into any further fall in bank stocks.

As for Mike Smith, I would hope the board would move him on if they were not satisfied with his performance. It's just a job. 

While ANZ may not have handled this capital raising to people's liking, I think part of the reaction is due to the current mood of the market. Market's correct. This was the catalyst.


----------



## UMike (31 October 2015)

tinhat said:


> I don't know much about banks either, except that they seem to make a lot of money. Without reading into the figures, I worked out some averages of the performance of a couple of financial ratios going back to 1989, which is as far back as my data source goes. Using the end of financial year values:
> 
> Average Return on Equity: 20%
> Average Price-Earnings Ratio: 12
> ...



Just bought another fair bit on the 4% dip just under $27.
*
NOW
P/E Ratio  10.15   
Dividend Yield  6.7%  * 

Hold for 14mths get 3 divies. Or 8mths and 2 divies if the re-elected Turnbul Govt is inclined to bring down a tough budget.


----------



## tinhat (31 October 2015)

I wish I had held of buying.


----------



## tinhat (3 November 2015)

UMike said:


> Just bought another fair bit on the 4% dip just under $27.
> *
> NOW
> P/E Ratio  10.15
> ...




With the ability to get full franking credits and it going ex div this week, I've rebalanced the SMSF portfolio and sold down some TLS, said good-bye to RCG (What a ride from 60c to 142c) and bought up ANZ and NAB today and yesterday. 9.8% grossed up dividend yield but with 3 div entitlements in the next 53 weeks. For years I have been saying I don't care about earnings growth at that rate of return and yet the banks keep on growing earnings albeit at lower ROE and higher payout ratios. I've made this decision on the basis that the dividends for the major banks are stable and will be maintained into the medium term.


----------



## shouldaindex (16 November 2015)

I think ANZ has good value for the short-term, purely guessing.  It's not going to get much cheaper than 9 PE at any stage.

But the expectation is that earnings are going to weather some hits as they are always cyclical.  If they can manage to keep that hit (whenever it comes, and it will sometime this decade) to say, -10% to flat EPS that'll be a very good outcome to then start the next cycle.

So my view is good for short-term at $25, but significant risk ahead in the next couple of years that you need to be out before (no matter how good the dividend, as we have seen what can happen with the -30% SP in 6 months)


----------



## Wysiwyg (24 March 2016)

Bit of a reaction to ANZ announcing big credit issues. An American market downturn now could accelerate the sell off and see a new low.


----------



## ggkfc (24 March 2016)

Wysiwyg said:


> Bit of a reaction to ANZ announcing big credit issues. An American market downturn now could accelerate the sell off and see a new low.




Sitting at 23.93 atm

Still waiting for a bit more a dip around 22 before buying any


----------



## ggkfc (29 March 2016)

anz getting hammered today!


----------



## Cashflows (29 March 2016)

I'm sure this may sound naÃ¯ve, but is the increase in provisions of $100 million write off worth the $6,000,000 in the fall of the share price? I mean sure there is the fear of future write downs, but is that a proportionate fall? or is it an emotional estimate of future risks?

ps I don't own anz, and I couldn't understand last year's craze for large - cap dividends as if there was no risk.


----------



## ggkfc (29 March 2016)

might be more under the surface

maybe somebody knows something more


----------



## oldblue (29 March 2016)

ggkfc said:


> might be more under the surface
> 
> maybe somebody knows something more




Maybe - or maybe they're oversold - over-shorted, more likely. The $100m further provisioning announced last week amounts to less than 4cps!


----------



## Klogg (29 March 2016)

oldblue said:


> Maybe - or maybe they're oversold - over-shorted, more likely. The $100m further provisioning announced last week amounts to less than 4cps!




Or maybe it's the canary in the coal mine so to speak.

With NIM pressures now coming to play and additional capital requirements from APRA (A risk weighting of 25% instead of 16% for mortgages is not a small change), one would imagine loan growth would slow substantially and dividend payout ratios would drop.


----------



## Toyota Lexcen (29 March 2016)

the APRA attack on banks is just amazing, 

correct me if I am wrong, at no point is it costing bank "XYZ pty ltd" one cent, so far it has cost shareholders and bank customers,

yet APRA will tell you they are acting to protect depositors, superannuation accounts etc


----------



## Klogg (30 March 2016)

Toyota Lexcen said:


> the APRA attack on banks is just amazing,
> 
> correct me if I am wrong, at no point is it costing bank "XYZ pty ltd" one cent, so far it has cost shareholders and bank customers,
> 
> yet APRA will tell you they are acting to protect depositors, superannuation accounts etc




Well, actually it costs them because they need to attract more funds in the form of Tier 1 capital to ensure their capital ratios are met. This means higher costs for those funds (e.g. interest on deposits, interest on tier 1 notes, etc.)

Yes, the banks should pass this on to consumers and they are to a degree, but not all of it. This is partly why their Net Interest Margins have been under pressure, and are still falling. Of course, what costs the bank money will cost shareholders, so this makes sense.

As for APRA, they are acting to protect any form of deposits. If banks have any problems, it is the amount of tier 1 capital that matters. So by raising the required amount of capital, APRA is ensuring the bank can hand back someone's deposit even if credit impairments double.


IMO, the Basel IRB model is far too free/open. It effectively allows banks (before recent changes) to hold 10% Tier 1 capital against a loan that had a risk weighting of 15%. Multiplying that out, they are holding 1.5c for every dollar of mortgage that they're written. It's a scary thought, but I'm quite conservative when it comes to such matters.


----------



## ggkfc (30 March 2016)

but that be ok, property prices double every 7 years dont they!


----------



## Toyota Lexcen (30 March 2016)

Exactly.the end result of Apra's actions so far has been that shareholders and bank customers are paying for the protection

I think Mike Smith(anz) made the comment a while ago that shareholders have paid enough for the regulation, so hopefully next moves are up for bank customers if apra try's anymore regulatory actions

Doesn't APRa oversee the superannuation industry also?


----------



## ggkfc (30 March 2016)

its always the shareholders that pay for it..
just like capital raising dilution


----------



## prawn_86 (30 March 2016)

Im a little confused. People in this thread are acting like the shareholders are separate to the bank.

The shareholders ARE the bank, so of course anything that has a negative effect on the bank will hit the share price. Its not like the shareholders are 'paying for it' they own the company and the company is paying for it


----------



## AussieStockDawg (30 March 2016)

Down 0.5% today at close to $23.15

5,3 EMA Stoch is sitting around 5 .... and on BB, price is edging toward lower 20d 2.5std.


keeping an eye open for an entry


----------



## ggkfc (30 March 2016)

AussieStockDawg said:


> Down 0.5% today at close to $23.15
> 
> 5,3 EMA Stoch is sitting around 5 .... and on BB, price is edging toward lower 20d 2.5std.
> 
> ...




just wait for a bit.. some poor housing market data!


----------



## shouldaindex (31 March 2016)

Have a look at any ANZ investor presentation from the past year, you can see ANZs bad debt ratio requires about a 100% increase (so double) just to return to historical averages. 

So if the market is scared of 10%, they might be in for a shock when the next major even hits (before the end of this decade IMO)


----------



## UMike (31 October 2016)

ANZ is releasing an Investor Discussion Pack?????
Relating to the banks review of its retail and wealth business in Asia.


----------



## oldblue (31 October 2016)

UMike said:


> ANZ is releasing an Investor Discussion Pack?????
> Relating to the banks review of its retail and wealth business in Asia.




Even if history never actually repeats, it certainly chimes!

Reminds me of when ANZ reviewed its Indian retail business and decided to sell its subsidiary, Grindleys Bank. Twenty-odd years ago?


----------



## oldblue (21 April 2017)

ANZ to sell its retail business in Vietnam and to concentrate on institutional banking. Seems the lesson of Grindlays in India all those years ago needs to be re-learnt by every succeeding generation of ANZ executives!


----------



## Redbeard (8 June 2017)

They could have just tried to open a bank account in any other bank to learn how infuriating banking practices are in VN.


----------



## Redbeard (9 June 2017)

Now a real question.

I have just been going through old records of my holding when I noticed something odd.
In 2002 I withdrew from the BOP scheme and had a balance of $9.29 left over.
When I elected to start the BOP again in 2012 the opening value of the BOP account was $0.

My question is where did the $9.29 go?
As far as I can recall/search I cannot find a payment for that amount.


----------



## herzy (16 June 2017)

Redbeard said:


> Now a real question.
> 
> I have just been going through old records of my holding when I noticed something odd.
> In 2002 I withdrew from the BOP scheme and had a balance of $9.29 left over.
> ...




What's BOP? 

Usually amounts under a certain threshold get donated to charity.


----------



## Redbeard (20 June 2017)

herzy said:


> What's BOP?
> 
> Usually amounts under a certain threshold get donated to charity.




BOP (Bonus Share Plan) is another form of DRP  where you forgo the dividend and receive shares. 
there are different rules associated with them..  There are other threads that talk about it.

Anyway its OK, I asked the Share-registry/Bank and then said when I left the scheme the first time I 'lost' the balance.  Which is kinda right as I had already "forgone" my dividend entitlement.

It all a big play on words really. But the Tax office worries about the difference!!


----------



## Joules MM1 (5 June 2018)

the worst garbage news at the bottom of a cycle .......nice
https://twitter.com/i/moments/1003907958885965826


----------



## Joules MM1 (5 June 2018)

just a slap on the wrist ......is it enough...seems not much according to critics of HSBC 
https://iview.abc.net.au/programs/four-corners/NC1803H014S00


----------



## Redbeard (6 June 2018)

Joules MM1 said:


> the worst garbage news at the bottom of a cycle .......nice
> https://twitter.com/i/moments/1003907958885965826



Yes, still trying to work out "the cartel bit"?   Having capital raising shares offered to the public and/or institutions is nothing new. Over the years I am sure some companies have place shares with institutions only "to save the costs of a retail offering".
I am failing to understand why what happened is cartel behaviour.  And of course the reporters don't understand it either so they don't explain it.


----------



## HelloU (6 June 2018)

my limited understanding is that it is to do with the underwritten part of the issue that was not taken up in the offer - and then the underwriters allegedly kept the ANZ SP 'artificially' high by having a very controlled and prolonged exit from said shares - contrived to not dump.  That is what ur tax dollars will be used for - to see if that is naughty behaviour.

(not to be confused in any way with shorting though, cos apparently borrowing shares that you do not even own in order to dump the same on the market to 'hopefully' get the SP to drop is not considered naughty behaviour)


----------



## Redbeard (6 June 2018)

Naughty or nice; isn't it what you can get away with!
Yes, found another article tonight saying what you explained, the problem was the "method of dispersal to the market"  was an agreed method.   Looks like JPMorgan tattled before they were caught out.

What I dont get is why didnt they just offer more in the retail ($26.50) offer then, or was that the idea??  Limit the retail allocation and "give" them to the institutions to sell off at a larger price.  If thats what my tax dollars is going to find out , then all for it.  Why should a big underwriter get preference over me.  I could have bought more shares and the sold them for a profit on the market myself!!


----------



## HelloU (6 June 2018)

rambling now as I dk........all announced together but the insto was a month or so earlier than retail offer and done at over $30 - to be used for tier 1 capital increases demanded by government.  Insto was 4 or 5 times bigger than retail and underwritten - it was the real tier 1 money. Maybe the issue surrounds propping the price up before the SPP price was determined? (as would assume the price was collapsing if the SPP was done at $26 odd but guessing and not going back to look)


----------



## HelloU (6 June 2018)

$500M offered retail but ended up with $720M, ANZ accepted all with nil scaleback. $26-50 price done on VWAP first week Sep15. Insto was set at $30-95 and not altered, started trading 13Aug15.


----------



## notting (20 June 2018)

Great couple of days for ANZ especially and WBC flying off it's year lows and the rest of the financial sector.
Internationals buying on the back of a low AU$ very cheap for them!!  They have been absent for a while probably sitting out on the Royal commission which may look worse for them than us who know it's a bunch of BS.


----------



## bigdog (9 October 2018)

Age Reported
https://www.theage.com.au/business/...mpensation-other-charges-20181008-p508bx.html

*ANZ shares dive on heavy royal commission and compensation costs*

ANZ Banking Group has drastically increased the amount of money it expects to pay customers in  compensation for poor or non-existent advice, taking the total amount of refunds the banking sector plans to pay to a massive $1.45 billion, but analysts warn the banks might have to set aside even more money to refund customers.

ANZ's shares slumped after it said it would take a $824 million hit to its annual result, with more than half that amount, or $421 million, to compensation customers who received inappropriate advice or were charged fees for no service.

Shareholders took a $2 billion hit on Monday after the group announced the massive writedown, with ANZ's shares closing down 2.63 per cent, or 73¢, to $26.99.

The Australian Securities and Investments Commission outgoing deputy chairman Peter Kell said in August that fees-for-no service refunds could top $1 billion.

Late last month, Westpac said its cash earnings would fall by $235 million due to remediation programs and litigations.

CLSA banking analyst Brian Johnson said shareholders should expect more provisions for customer compensation and costs associated with remedying issues brought to light by the banking royal commission.

"It’s a big number and it looks so big it’s tempting to say they’ve done a lot but they do say there are more reviews to come," Mr Johnson said.

"But I don’t think you could rule out that there will be more for both ANZ and across the sector."

Shaw and Partners banking analyst Brett Le Mesurier also expected further provisions for remediation programs across the sector.

"There will quite possibly be more next financial year. This is their estimate based on the work that they’ve done so far," he said.

On Monday, ANZ said it expected to record charges of $374 million after tax in the second half of the 2018 financial year for refunds to customers and related remediation costs. This amount added to the $48 million in provisions it made in the first half of 2018 for remediation costs.

"These relate to issues that have been identified from reviews to date," ANZ said in a statement released on Monday morning. "These reviews remain ongoing."

Of the $824 million in total impairments, ANZ said $697 million related to its continuing operations. This included a $206 million writedown on the value of the IT systems the bank used in its now largely abandoned Asian businesses.

It booked a further $127 million impairment relating to compensation for customers in its wealth business, which it sold to IOOF last year.

Some of the remediation relates to refunds to customers severed by ANZ's aligned dealer groups that have now been sold to IOOF. ANZ is also remediating customers who were incorrectly charged interest payments and has made impairments for the customers it believes are likely to have received inappropriate advice.

The majority of the flagged impairments, or $711 million, will be recorded in the bank's second half to September 30.

Along with the customer remediation and software expenses, ANZ expects to book a $104 million hit on the restructuring of its technology department.

The bank also revealed that its legal costs for the royal commission for 2018 would be $55 million or $38 million after tax, with the majority of that amount, or $27 million, recorded in the second half.

ANZ's results are scheduled to be released on October 31. It last year delivered an annual cash profit of $6.9 billion.

The impairments come as the bank's chief executive, Shayne Elliott, prepares for a public grilling when he appears at the government's ongoing review of the banking sector on Friday.

The banking sector's fees-for-no-service scandal has been a flashpoint for the royal commission with all big four banks admitting to charging customers - including in some cases dead customers - for services they did not receive.


----------



## JTLP (4 February 2019)

Honestly - the banks feel like a buy tomorrow. That was a very shallow, much ado about nothing royal commission. 
Yes credit growth is slowing and house prices yada yada. But it’ll be 2020 before we know it, the RBA will have at the minimum quantitatively eased and so banks should be in a good position. My take!


----------



## JTLP (5 February 2019)

And there you have it. Up 5% today. Headwinds overblown. Retail data today could give it another kick. 

People may have been in the know yesterday morning...


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## IFocus (2 October 2019)

A question for any one who knows, I hold ANZ in my super but I am in the middle of selling my place and have been waiting for buyers (going through ANZ) to get finance approved 1st buyer 10 weeks still no answer, 2nd buyer 5 weeks still no answer. looked on line at reviews for ANZ and lots have the same problem.

Question is how can this be a good business process it makes no sense.

Thinking of dumping the shares.


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## sptrawler (2 October 2019)

IFocus said:


> A question for any one who knows, I hold ANZ in my super but I am in the middle of selling my place and have been waiting for buyers (going through ANZ) to get finance approved 1st buyer 10 weeks still no answer, 2nd buyer 5 weeks still no answer. looked on line at reviews for ANZ and lots have the same problem.
> 
> Question is how can this be a good business process it makes no sense.
> 
> Thinking of dumping the shares.



The banks are doing a lot more due diligence, my son recently bought a 100acre block of land, he had verbal pre approval but when he went for the loan had to stump up another $60k.


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## IFocus (3 October 2019)

My understanding is its not the changes in measuring risk but off shore processing (India) thats the problem I just don't see the business case in the extended times being justified there is a fair bit of anger on the net about it.


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## sptrawler (30 April 2020)

ANZ suspends interim dividend after 60% drop in profits.

https://www.smh.com.au/business/ban...0-p54ohl.html?js-chunk-not-found-refresh=true

I don't hold, fortunately.


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## Dona Ferentes (30 April 2020)

ANZ paid a dividend of 80 cents per share at the same time last year, but with earnings per share down at 50 cents, the bank's * board has deferred *a decision on how much to pay out to shareholders until it knows more about how the COVID-19 pandemic will play out.







> However, ANZ's chairman David Gonski said the decision to defer the payment was "not about our current financial position and ANZ has not received any concerns from [bank regulator] APRA regarding our level of capital". "The board agrees with the regulator's guidance that deferring a decision on the 2020 interim dividend is prudent given the present economic uncertainty and that making a decision at this time would not have been appropriate," he said.



_- and some are seeing this as a swipe at NAB, which paid a (reduced) dividend and then went ahead and raised capital_


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## InsvestoBoy (30 April 2020)

Just like NAB, most of the hit to profits is from announced "impairment charges", i.e. money they are putting aside as reserve for loans or other business they expect to go sour.

They didn't actually lose the money (yet).

Cash profit was still $1.41 *BILLION *dollars for a half year, all said and done.


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## So_Cynical (9 September 2020)

15 year chart below, ANZ has been a very ordinary investment - very ordinary, under performing and in fact impacting the broader indexes negatively.
15 years of sideways price action, i suppose one could blame the high dividend payout, and the failed expansion plans, mortgage saturation.
~


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## UMike (9 September 2020)

That's why I sell and buy  on peaks and troughs.

Got a low ball nibble offer atm.


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## sptrawler (9 September 2020)

So_Cynical said:


> 15 year chart below, ANZ has been a very ordinary investment - very ordinary, under performing and in fact impacting the broader indexes negatively.
> 15 years of sideways price action, i suppose one could blame the high dividend payout, and the failed expansion plans, mortgage saturation.
> ~
> View attachment 108918



One would assume WBC and NAB don't look much different.


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## So_Cynical (10 September 2020)

sptrawler said:


> One would assume WBC and NAB don't look much different.




I haven't looked but i imagine similar, throw in all the insurance stocks too, AMP, SUN, IAG, QBE all very ordinary 15 year investments.


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## UMike (10 September 2020)

Pretty sure WBC and AMP has fared markedly worse.

I held onto WBC too long and showing a fair bit of red there.


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## Sharkman (10 September 2020)

NAB has been by far the worst, especially if you go back to around 2003 or so, before the forex scandal broke. that forex scandal was a major hit to their reputation i think, the disastrous foray into UK banking didn't help either. even looking back to 2006 and roughly eyeballing it, NAB seems to have performed worse than ANZ + WBC. their div payouts have been slightly higher though.

i remember back around 2004 that the NAB share price used to be higher than CBA (or at least jockeying with it), and look at them now. CBA is the clear outperformer of the big 4 since then.


----------



## sptrawler (10 September 2020)

Sharkman said:


> NAB has been by far the worst, especially if you go back to around 2003 or so, before the forex scandal broke. that forex scandal was a major hit to their reputation i think, the disastrous foray into UK banking didn't help either. even looking back to 2006 and roughly eyeballing it, NAB seems to have performed worse than ANZ + WBC. their div payouts have been slightly higher though.
> 
> i remember back around 2004 that the NAB share price used to be higher than CBA (or at least jockeying with it), and look at them now. CBA is the clear outperformer of the big 4 since then.



What is really funny is how they are always held up as the ones killing the pig, when  in reality they dont outperform the index, bank bashing is just another soft target.
Everyone hates the banks when they are doing well, which usually is when people are borrowing to speculate, then demand the banks cut them a lot of slack when everything turns to $hit.
It is very hard to run a business with that criterea.lol
Meanwhile the miners quitely strip the resources in ever increasing volumes and they are cheered on, it is a weird world we live in.
Everyone is more worried about what is happening in the U.S, than what is happening in Australia.


----------



## tinhat (10 September 2020)

sptrawler said:


> What is really funny is how they are always held up as the ones killing the pig, when  in reality they dont outperform the index, bank bashing is just another soft target.
> Everyone hates the banks when they are doing well, which usually is when people are borrowing to speculate, then demand the banks cut them a lot of slack when everything turns to $hit.
> It is very hard to run a business with that criterea.lol
> Meanwhile the miners quitely strip the resources in ever increasing volumes and they are cheered on, it is a weird world we live in.
> Everyone is more worried about what is happening in the U.S, than what is happening in Australia.




SP, the big four are financing their dividends through borrowing money from the RBA for free. That's no way to run a business.


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## sptrawler (10 September 2020)

tinhat said:


> SP, the big four are financing their dividends through borrowing money from the RBA for free. That's no way to run a business.



Most of them arent paying much of a dividend or no dividend, but they are allowing people not to make payments on loans.
It isnt a business if they dont make money.
Extrapolating that out, the RBA and the government want to reduce interest rates, so the banks have to reduce profits, but have to lend money, but if the rates are dropped they have to reduce them, but they have to offer fixed rates.
It is a weired business model, wish I hadnt bought in. Lol
Meanwhile the opposition forced a super profits tax on them, magic, power of the media yet again IMO.
Im sure eventually we will thrash ourselves into a third world nation, but we will be able to look everyone in the eye and say, we deserved it.lol


----------



## tinhat (10 September 2020)

sptrawler said:


> Most of them arent paying much of a dividend or no dividend, but they are allowing people not to make payments on loans.
> It isnt a business if they dont make money.
> Extrapolating that out, the RBA and the government want to reduce interest rates, so the banks have to rsduce profits, but have to lend money, but if the rates are dropped they have to reduce them, but they have to offer fixed rates.
> It is a weired business model, wish I hadnt bought in. Lol



SP, it was a great  business model. I yelled from the mountain top to buy bank shares post GFC. Feb 2020 for the first time ever I and m


sptrawler said:


> Most of them arent paying much of a dividend or no dividend, but they are allowing people not to make payments on loans.
> It isnt a business if they dont make money.
> Extrapolating that out, the RBA and the government want to reduce interest rates, so the banks have to reduce profits, but have to lend money, but if the rates are dropped they have to reduce them, but they have to offer fixed rates.
> It is a weired business model, wish I hadnt bought in. Lol
> Meanwhile the opposition forced a super profits tax on them, magic, power of the media yet again IMO.




Nothing is forever. The river always flows. I wish I had given you shout when I came over to Perth earlier in the year. Next time.


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## tinhat (10 September 2020)

sorry about that last post, but I am on the fraudband so I never know when the phone line and NBN will cut out. No mobile reception here. I just found out that somehow I have been streaming Tchaikovsky's fifth symphony for a while now without actually listing to it, so we will give it a go. A rather young darkly frocked fellow is waiving a baton.


----------



## sptrawler (10 September 2020)

tinhat said:


> SP, it was a great  business model. I yelled from the mountain top to buy bank shares post GFC. Feb 2020 for the first time ever I and m
> 
> 
> Nothing is forever. The river always flows. I wish I had given you shout when I came over to Perth earlier in the year. Next time.



Yes I think I will have to move out of the banks, but I still think they have to be the backbone of the retirement portfolio.
At the end of the day, they really are the shop front for government fiscal policy, without them the government will struggle to control fiscal policy.
If that happens, then you dont have a government running your country, welcome to the third world borrowing money from shady sources.lol
Cant wait to see how welfare payments work out then.


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## tinhat (10 September 2020)

Don't bother with the dark frocked blonde. It's like the cheese that gets stuck in your upper gums. A bit like bank dividends. You think you are being patriotic but remember the night you were at Engadine Maccas? You didn't realise then, but now you do, that nothing of substance matters in politics, and all that matters in government is politics.


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## tinhat (10 September 2020)

sptrawler said:


> Yes I think I will have to move out of the banks, but I still think they have to be the backbone of the retirement portfolio.
> At the end of the day, they really are the shop front for government fiscal policy, without them the government will struggle to control fiscal policy.
> If that happens, then you dont have a government running your country, welcome to the third world borrowing money from shady sources.lol
> Cant wait to see how welfare payments work out then.




SP, it's not for me to call as I have been out of banks for a while and not looked at them for some time either, so my suggestion to you is to consider whether selling at the bottom is any wiser.


----------



## sptrawler (10 September 2020)

tinhat said:


> SP, it's not for me to call as I have been out of banks for a while and not looked at them for some time either, so my suggestion to you is to consider whether selling at the bottom is any wiser.



I did want to sell out of 35% back when they were $30, the other half said no, I then suggested buying afterpay at $10 in March, when the forum started the thread, the other half said no.lol
But I have remained married for 44 years, so I havent lost half of my gains, but have retained half the losses.lol
Im still much better off than my parents were, can still can help out the kids and am still on no welfare.
That is really funny because apparently both the wife and I could apply for jobseeker, both under 65 and not receiving anything. But that wouldnt be Australian, well not in the Australia I grew up in.lol


----------



## tinhat (10 September 2020)

sptrawler said:


> I did want to sell out of 35% back when they were $30, the other half said no, I then suggested buying afterpay at $10 in March, when the forum started the thread, the other half said no.lol
> But I have remained married for 44 years, so I havent lost half of my gains, but have retained half the losses.lol
> Im still much better off than my parents were and still can help out the kids.



You know I hear you. Every time. I'm still listening to the Tchaikovsky Symphony 5 too. The way I see it if we can put clothes on our backs, shoes on our feet and feed ourselves an be happy (through art) then we can live. But we must have art and to have art we must love our environment for we were given only one world to live in and we must love that world beyond anything else, including money.


----------



## sptrawler (10 September 2020)

tinhat said:


> You know I hear you. Every time. I'm still listening to the Tchaikovsky Symphony 5 too. The way I see it if we can put clothes on our backs, shoes on our feet and feed ourselves an be happy (through art) then we can live. But we must have art and to have art we must love our environment for we were given only one world to live in and we must love that world beyond anything else, including money.



So true, everyone today is so busy being self indulgent, they dont appreciate that in the end all you have is memories of great times with loved ones and great friends, everything else was just a fleeting moment.
Everyone in the cementry is as rich as each other.
Must get back on topic.lol


----------



## UMike (11 September 2020)

If it wasn't for social distancing......... I'd tell yous to get a room.

;-)


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## Dona Ferentes (11 September 2020)

not sure if this is "On Topic" and there are a few skews (*dividends *not included) but some conclusions I draw from the 30 year plot, below, are:
a) the good days for Banks were from 1990 to 2005
b) CBA is the 'best in class' by a longshot
c) They really haven't gotten over the GFC. Covid is a further complication.
d) QBE, thrown in because it was mentioned, runs its own race. Moody, though, and stops to tie up shoelaces too often.

30 year chart, monthly plot, ANZ in blue-ish purple, with NAB in red (and the underperformer), QBE light blue, CBA dark green and WBC light green


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## Dona Ferentes (7 May 2021)

On slide 10 of ANZ’s latest investor presentation, it's good to learn the bank’s


> “_focused approach ensures a systematic cadence that adds velocity to benefit realisation”_.




This caused a bit of a stir (not much) out there:

ANZ's corporate affairs honcho told a news outlet the phrase means "_there is an intense focus and regular meetings with the CEO to get results faster_".
CEO Shayne Elliott told a business journalist the phrase is talking about driving down costs through being a "_simpler, better bank" _for customers, which "_will inevitably be safer [to] run and so would be lower cost"._
Elliott himself conceded to 2GB that talk of "systematic cadence" and  "bringing velocity to benefit realisation" sounded like_ *"utter  nonsense*", _though said he was glad it had delivered investors some_"light humour". _As for whoever wrote the offending slide, "_maybe next time he can write the whole thing_".


----------



## Gunnerguy (4 July 2021)

Hi All,

My journey in to generating an income from Option Trading continues.
I have traded some options in CBA and now looking at ANZ considering their results in October and a possible increase to there and possible affects og potential good results from CBA in August.
I would welcome any comments or critics on a trade I am considering next week.
Either Trade A or B on ANZ for September expiration. ANZ current price = $28.32.
ANZ Full Year results on 28th October. CBA results in August, if they are good they could bump ANZ up.

*Trade A.*
1 Bull Put 29/29.5 Credit Spread contract.
Buy 29 Put. PM = -1.52, delta = -0.607. Sell 29.5 Put. PM = +1.87, delta = -0.694.
Net Credit = $32.80 (after commission), Delta = 0.087.
Risk is -$17.20, Max gain is $32.80, Breakeven is $29.17, +3% on current price.

*Trade B.*
1 Bull Put 30.5/31 Credit Spread contract.
Buy 30.5 Put. PM = -2.67, delta = -0.833. Sell 31 Put. PM = +3.11, delta = -0.888.
Net Credit = $41.8 (after commission), Delta = 0.055.
Risk is -$8.20, Max gain is $41.80, Breakeven is $30.58.17, +8% on current price.

Trade B has a better Risk/Reward, however BE is 8% about current price.
I am, however, leaning towards doing 2 or 3 contracts of Trade A.

Any comments, ideas or critic would be greatfully received.

Gunnerguy.
(Learning, slowly, to generate income from Options Trading)


----------



## Sean K (7 February 2022)

Anyone going to bet the pattern continues?


----------



## qldfrog (7 February 2022)

Sean K said:


> Anyone going to bet the pattern continues?
> 
> View attachment 137161



Sean a few VERY BIG differences..:
Hard to assume future will reflect past in these conditions IMHO


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## Dona Ferentes (7 February 2022)

ANZ fell 1.9 per cent after flagging a hit to margins due to stiff competition in mortgage lending. Group Net Interest Margin was down 8bps for the quarter with underlying NIM down 5bps. 

 It's a tough gig; don't want to lend (gear into) to something that turns sour. Competition is there, constantly, from the other Big Lenders, plus somewhat deregulated  heel -nippers


> _ANZ has made solid progress in Australia to improve systems and processes for simple home loans with application times now in line with other major lenders. Efforts continue to improve response times for more complex home loan applications. Australian Home Loans balance sheet grew slightly in the first quarter FY22. Given the high levels of refinancing activity in the sector, managing both attrition and margins remain key areas of focus._




 and the central bank's ultra-loose policy settings, where are they taking things. Good or bad?


> ... _a continuation of the structural headwinds [is] impacting the sector.  The impact of rising rates ... and recent deposit pricing changes are expected to moderate these ongoing headwinds in the second quarter.._


----------



## Sean K (8 February 2022)

qldfrog said:


> Sean a few VERY BIG differences..:
> Hard to assume future will reflect past in these conditions IMHO
> View attachment 137166



Agree, looks tenuous, but it finished above the Dec low and yesterday looks like a reversal candle. Disregarding the bad report yesterday, it still looks similar to the other troughs. Since I think that, it will completely tank today, so better to put your Okanuis on.


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## Gunnerguy (2 May 2022)

https://www.abc.net.au/news/2022-05...-stress-interest-rate-rise-election/101026362

Doesn’t put any of the banks in a good light, particularly ANZ.

Gunnerguy


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## KevinBB (4 May 2022)

Dividend $0.72 Fully Franked. Paid 1 July 2022. I'll take that, thank you Mr ANZ.

One down, two more to go.

KH


----------



## Dona Ferentes (4 May 2022)

Gunnerguy said:


> https://www.abc.net.au/news/2022-05...-stress-interest-rate-rise-election/101026362
> 
> Doesn’t put any of the banks in a good light, particularly ANZ.



but won't _Current Affair_ luv it.


----------



## SyBoo (15 June 2022)

Now trading below book value (bvps).   Am not going to say it cheap,   but am going to say,   Jinkies Batman!


----------



## Dona Ferentes (16 July 2022)

Looks like ANZ might make a bid for Suncorp bank. If so, details next week?

At least this limits the chance of ANZ having a nibble at the privately held MYOB (in the grasp of KKR, at present), which would be a can of worms.


----------



## divs4ever (16 July 2022)

Dona Ferentes said:


> Looks like ANZ might make a bid for Suncorp bank. If so, details next week?
> 
> At least this limits the chance of ANZ having a nibble at the privately held MYOB (in the grasp of KKR, at present), which would be a can of worms.



SUN ( i hold )  is talking about 'restructuring '   one arm  might be up for grabs  , but surely the ACCC   would put the microscope  on  if ANZ chased the banking arm  ( although the insurance arm  might trigger oversight questions as well )


----------



## Dona Ferentes (16 July 2022)

divs4ever said:


> SUN .... surely the ACCC would put the microscope on, if ANZ chased the banking arm



Why? Switzerland only has 2 big banks, and some Cantonal ones.


----------



## divs4ever (16 July 2022)

there was ( here ) at one stage   a  '4 pillars policy '  for our banking  although  there has been a persistent push for a '5th pillar ' to put pressure ( ??? ) on the current cartel 

 would the current ( allegedly non-capitalist ) government drift away from such a policy  ( and endanger the unionist safe haven  of CBA ) ??

 i guess time will tell 

 i would consider your view   more carefully , if there was a real threat  of one or more of the minor banks failing ( like in the Great Building Society  run )  ( not that a MAJOR bank run  is completely off the table , in Australia )

 but so far ( if the bank 'stress-tests ' aren't completely corrupted ) all the  bigger banks  ( except maybe AMP ) look fairly solid  compared to their EU counterparts


----------



## sptrawler (17 July 2022)

Dona Ferentes said:


> Looks like ANZ might make a bid for Suncorp bank. If so, details next week?
> 
> At least this limits the chance of ANZ having a nibble at the privately held MYOB (in the grasp of KKR, at present), which would be a can of worms.



With the advent of fintechs and digital currencies, it would make sense that Australia's banks consolidate further IMO.
As with most things in Australia, a very small market place can only support so much competition, if the regulators want to enforce a very strict regime they will have to allow consolidation.
They can't expect small banks to run anti money laundering, anti competitive, anti lending to irresponsible applicants processes to keep up with the regulators requirements and still make money IMO.


----------



## Dona Ferentes (18 July 2022)

A 1 for 15 renounceable rights offer at $18.90 a share.


----------



## KevinBB (18 July 2022)

Congratulations to the ANZ board, for not going with the institutional only capital raising, and including retail shareholders in the share issue on exactly the same basis as institutional shareholders.

2,802,817,801 number of ordinary, fully paid shares on issue (per notice on 12 July 2022)
186,854,521 shares to be issued under the capital raising (per today's announcements)
Close enough to 1 in 15.

KH


----------



## Dona Ferentes (18 July 2022)

> “The Suncorp brand will continue in place for at least* five years*,” ANZ CEO Shayne Elliott says on a conference call. “If we were to retain a separate brand it would be to ... attract a different segment.”



But if it does retain the brand, Elliott says it will be operated under a completely unified back office. The bank is still trying to assess the benefits of having two brands over the longer term.

- _a bit like the other banks. Play the local angle, I guess, even if it is only a marketing perception._


----------



## Dona Ferentes (18 July 2022)

🥉 ... or 💥


----------



## Craton (19 July 2022)

Dona Ferentes said:


> A 1 for 15 renounceable rights offer at $18.90 a share.



Am holding so will be interested to see what price the rights although, I'll more than likely take up the offer. You know, for the divvy's.


----------



## Dona Ferentes (21 July 2022)

Craton said:


> Am holding so will be interested to see what price the rights although, I'll more than likely take up the offer. You know, for the divvy's.



ANZ Bank has raised $1.7 billion from institutional investors; it said approximately 95 per cent of entitlements available were taken up. The entitlements not cleared were sold in the institutional shortfall bookbuild at $21.65 per new share, which was $2.75 above the offer price of $18.90 per share.

.... _so there is some demand, which should bode well for the rights_


----------



## KevinBB (21 July 2022)

Dona Ferentes said:


> were sold in the institutional shortfall bookbuild at $21.65 per new share



Virtually the same as yesterday's close. Seems a bit high to me

I would like to buy more, as the dividend yield is quite good, but maybe down towards $20, if it gets there.

KH


----------



## Dona Ferentes (21 July 2022)

KevinBB said:


> Virtually the same as yesterday's close. Seems a bit high to me
> 
> I would like to buy more, as the dividend yield is quite good, but maybe down towards $20, if it gets there.



Yes, it is a bit heroic. Though notionally it shouldn't be too low, only 40c less. But these things always jump around.


----------



## Sharkman (21 July 2022)

to save ppl having to trawl thru the announcements for this sort of stuff (as i just did that), the renounceable rights commenced trading today under the ticker *ANZR* on a deferred settlement basis. they will switch to standard settlements on jul 29 and be tradeable up until aug 8.

i'm probably going to just sell my rights on the market. usually for the non-renounceable ones i take them up, but i only have a smallish ANZ position and am not too keen to take on odd lots, i prefer nice round numbers for position sizing (partly because of OCD, which i'm pretty sure i have, but it also has a practical slant to it as it's easier to do multiplication in your head on round numbers when thinking over portfolio weighting etc) so i'll probably end up selling them for whatever i can get.


----------



## KevinBB (21 July 2022)

Sharkman said:


> to save ppl having to trawl thru the announcements for this sort of stuff (as i just did that), the renounceable rights commenced trading today under the ticker *ANZR* on a deferred settlement basis. they will switch to standard settlements on jul 29 and be tradeable up until aug 8.
> 
> i'm probably going to just sell my rights on the market. usually for the non-renounceable ones i take them up, but i only have a smallish ANZ position and am not too keen to take on odd lots, i prefer nice round numbers for position sizing (partly because of OCD, which i'm pretty sure i have, but it also has a practical slant to it as it's easier to do multiplication in your head on round numbers when thinking over portfolio weighting etc) so i'll probably end up selling them for whatever i can get.



lol, you're like me. Everything I buy has to be two significant digits only.

However, I won't be selling the rights on market as brokerage cost as a percentage of trade value will be too high, and I don't like that at all. In this case, I will be taking up my very small rights allotment. Next time I buy ANZ, I can guarantee you that the total number of shares after the next purchase will be rounded correctly!

KH


----------



## Sharkman (21 July 2022)

KevinBB said:


> lol, you're like me. Everything I buy has to be two significant digits only.
> 
> However, I won't be selling the rights on market as brokerage cost as a percentage of trade value will be too high, and I don't like that at all. In this case, I will be taking up my very small rights allotment. Next time I buy ANZ, I can guarantee you that the total number of shares after the next purchase will be rounded correctly!
> 
> KH




ah, a fellow aficionado of the beauty of round numbered position sizes! yep, i understand completely. one time many years ago, before i got into the habit of checking lot size before every trade, i sold 40 puts and just assumed i'd take delivery of 4000 units if they expired ITM, which i was totally fine with. i didn't realise they were one of those weird 107 lot size contracts until they actually got assigned. the next day i was punching in an order to buy exactly 720 units of the underlying pronto!

yeah the brokerage is a bit of an annoyance. my ANZ position is held in IB though, so it's not all that bad. 6 AUD minimums at IB, that's an acceptable price for satisfying my OCD. i don't really want a bigger ANZ position at the moment, so simply selling the rights seems a better alternative for me than taking up the offer and then buying the required units to top up the position to the nearest thousand.


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## KevinBB (21 July 2022)

Sharkman said:


> ah, a fellow aficionado of the beauty of round numbered position sizes! yep, i understand completely. one time many years ago, before i got into the habit of checking lot size before every trade, i sold 40 puts and just assumed i'd take delivery of 4000 units if they expired ITM, which i was totally fine with. i didn't realise they were one of those weird 107 lot size contracts until they actually got assigned. the next day i was punching in an order to buy exactly 720 units of the underlying pronto!
> 
> yeah the brokerage is a bit of an annoyance. my ANZ position is held in IB though, so it's not all that bad. 6 AUD minimums at IB, that's an acceptable price for satisfying my OCD. i don't really want a bigger ANZ position at the moment, so simply selling the rights seems a better alternative for me than taking up the offer and then buying the required units to top up the position to the nearest thousand.



$6 isn't too bad. $15 (for less than $5k) at NABTrade is a bit over the top, though.

Maybe I just have to accept IB with all its faults, and stay there, at least anyway, for ordinary shares. I'll never buy any form of trust through them again.

KH


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## Dona Ferentes (26 July 2022)

I've sold my ANZR, deciding to take $800 now, pay a bit of tax in a year's time, rather than find $4k in a few week's time (money that can stay in the SMSF.)

I have a bit of a sentimental attachment to the ANZ holding; soon to have in my name for 30 years, prior to which they were originally ES&A in dad's name. Cost base $6.


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## Craton (26 July 2022)

Sharkman said:


> to save ppl having to trawl thru the announcements for this sort of stuff (as i just did that), the renounceable rights commenced trading today under the ticker *ANZR* on a deferred settlement basis. they will switch to standard settlements on jul 29 and be tradeable up until aug 8.
> 
> i'm probably going to just sell my rights on the market. usually for the non-renounceable ones i take them up, but i only have a smallish ANZ position and am not too keen to take on odd lots, i prefer nice round numbers for position sizing (partly because of OCD, which i'm pretty sure i have, but it also has a practical slant to it as it's easier to do multiplication in your head on round numbers when thinking over portfolio weighting etc) so i'll probably end up selling them for whatever i can get.



OCD?
I used to be a bit anal about nicely rounded parcel, percentage, dollar numbers etc, nowadays I find it trivial. No, I'm not saying if one does this that they are trivial, each to their own and all that, for me that compulsion has faded.


Dona Ferentes said:


> I've sold my ANZR, deciding to take $800 now, pay a bit of tax in a year's time, rather than find $4k in a few week's time (money that can stay in the SMSF.)
> 
> I have a bit of a sentimental attachment to the ANZ holding; soon to have in my name for 30 years, prior to which they were originally ES&A in dad's name. Cost base $6.



Nice little bonus. 

ANZR - as I like divvy's I will be taking these up.

ANZ/Esanda was where dad kept his Savings and Term Deposits and boy, wasn't he over the moon back in those high interest days of decades long gone. He couldn't believe how quickly that compound interest added up!


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## Sharkman (26 July 2022)

Craton said:


> OCD?




obsessive compulsive disorder

from the wiki: Common obsessions include fear of contamination, *obsession with symmetry*, and intrusive thoughts about religion, sex, and harm.

the highlighted bit is probably the only part that i have, basically i like seeing things arranged neatly, in fact i would even go as far as to say that it gives a (mild) dopamine hit when they are all lined up nicely. which in the context of investing, is positions sized to exact multiples of 1000, 5000, 10000 etc. depending on the unit price and what sort of weighting i'm after.

it's pretty mild TBH, i don't feel terribly disturbed or upset or anything like that if things aren't arranged neatly, i can deal with it if i have to (one of my current SGX positions is 40,025, i ended up with this position due to a REIT merger a few years ago, but as the SGX uses 100 lot size, i can't simply go and buy 9,975 units without incurring hefty odd lot fees and doing a lot of legwork, too much trouble so i just live with it. but believe me i did look into what the procedure was to fix odd lots, before deciding it was too onerous to bother).

but if i don't have to go too far out of my way to top up (or trim down) a position to a nice round number, then i'll go ahead and do it for the sake of symmetry. i know it makes virtually no practical difference whether i hold 40,025 units or 40,000 units, i just like seeing those round numbers all lined up. interested to hear whether KevinBB has similar or different reasons for sizing positions in this way.


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## KevinBB (26 July 2022)

Sharkman said:


> interested to hear whether KevinBB has similar or different reasons for sizing positions in this way.



Because I can 

The benefit in doing this (i.e. rounding to two significant digits, or even multiples) is that very quick estimates can be done in the head, without relying on a calculator. That's just the way I work.

I like rounded numbers, in particular those that are a multiple of 4 or 8. Two quick examples: My IOZ purchases and sales are always in a multiple of 400, and my trend following system uses moving average crossovers and breakouts that are all in multiples of 4 or 8.

btw, I paid up for ANZ this morning, $18.90 is too good of a bargain to miss out on. So now have until 24 August to add to this holding.

KH


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## KevinBB (27 July 2022)

KevinBB said:


> btw, I paid up for ANZ this morning,



Just a bit of a heads-up for those who choose to exercise their ANZ rights.

Once the ANZR rights are exercised, ANZR will disappear from your holdings and be replaced by ANZN (it has done so on my NABTrade). I assume that these ANZN will convert to ANZ on either 24 or 25 August as per Key Dates in the Retail Entitlement Offer booklet.

KH


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## dyna (27 July 2022)

KevinBB said:


> $18.90 is too good of a bargain to miss out on



It sure looks that way, considering the Insto's took up 95 % of their entitlement in real quick time, then paid another $2.75 a share above the $ 18.90 offer price, in the institutional shortfall bookbuild.
Sways me a bit, to grudgingly cough up ten grand for the rights. Fifteen years ago , previous CEO, Englishman Mike Smith was supposed to be the great white hope for ANZ with his charge into Asia. That all ended in failure. Wasted billions on China. New bloke , Elliot ? Another dud, still squandering millions on his hopeless platform rollout.

I'm still waiting for another crack at that big mother, Macquarie, but the S. P.  simply refuses to come down. Why haven't any of the crack traders on this forum called the bottom of the market for me yet? .....I'm starting to think I've missed it, this time.


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## sptrawler (27 July 2022)

When do these rights have to be paid by, the missus has some in her name and it's easier asking you guys than her.


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## KevinBB (27 July 2022)

sptrawler said:


> When do these rights have to be paid by, the missus has some in her name and it's easier asking you guys than her.



5pm on 15 August, according to the Key Dates page in the Retail Entitlement booklet.

KH


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## dyna (19 August 2022)

ANZ's  Retail Shortfall Bookbuild entitlement cleared at a price of $23.00 , $4.10 above the $18.90 offer price.
That $ 4.10 premium is what retail shareholders will now get for not taking up the offer. The rights did trade at $ 4.10 at one stage but the volume weighted average price ,  was $ 3.75.

Only 40% of the mums and dads elected to take up the $ 18.90 offer.
Still, the 64 % ( by value ) participation rate, raised $ 1.15 Billion.


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## sptrawler (19 August 2022)

Cheers @dyna , the missus didn't bother so at least we get something. It's funny her ANZ shares are the shares I bought when I was working. It's like magic how what's mine becomes hers.


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## Dona Ferentes (27 October 2022)

ANZ earned $7.12 billion in statutory profit after tax for the full year ended in September, up 16 per cent from a year ago.
Cash profit from continuing operations rose 5 per cent to $6.5 billion.
ANZ’s equity tier 1 ratio is at 12.3 per cent, taking cash return on equity at 10.4 per cent. 
The final dividend is 74¢ per share, fully franked.


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## UMike (27 October 2022)

Dona Ferentes said:


> ANZ earned $7.12 billion in statutory profit after tax for the full year ended in September, up 16 per cent from a year ago.
> Cash profit from continuing operations rose 5 per cent to $6.5 billion.
> ANZ’s equity tier 1 ratio is at 12.3 per cent, taking cash return on equity at 10.4 per cent.
> The final dividend is 74¢ per share, fully franked.



AND Down over 5.5%
,,,,,
Clearly I know nothing?


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## Dona Ferentes (28 October 2022)

UMike said:


> AND Down over 5.5%
> ,,,,,
> Clearly I know nothing?



but clearly a nice rally since June .... based on
- sentiment?
- improved outlook/ worst is over?
- rising rates meaning better margins? <_ANZ’s net interest margin (the difference between the rate ANZ lends and borrows money via deposits) went from 1.58 per cent in May to end at 1.8 per cent for Sept, as the bank (and all its competitors) pushed up borrowing rates much faster than it raised deposit rates.>_


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## Dona Ferentes (4 January 2023)

On 3 January 2023 ANZ implemented the scheme of arrangement to establish a non-operating holding company, ANZ Group Holdings Limited (*ANZ NOHC*) as the new listed parent company of the ANZ Group.

 This is the first step in our restructure, and will be shortly followed by the separation of ANZ's banking and certain non‑banking businesses within the ANZ Group.

_... _


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