# Bitcoin v Gold   XBT :  XAU



## Garpal Gumnut (24 January 2022)

Thanks to Xe, I have again been able to find some tasty charts of BTC/Gold. 

They track how many ounces of gold it takes to buy one bitcoin. I enclose some daily to a yearly chart.

I don't discount crypto btw, it may have some value going forward but not at these prices for me, and I prefer the vibe of ETH were I to jump in. Gold has stagnated somewhat and BTC is in a longer term downtrend.

I mean to say you got to buy something when it gets very cheap when your gold bar starts to appreciate, if it does.

Interesting times.













gg


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## Sean K (24 January 2022)

Garpal Gumnut said:


> Thanks to Xe, I have again been able to find some tasty charts of BTC/Gold.
> 
> They track how many ounces of gold it takes to buy one bitcoin. I enclose some daily to a yearly chart.
> 
> ...




gg, is that inferring that gold is undervalued? What's the play here?


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## Garpal Gumnut (24 January 2022)

Sean K said:


> gg, is that inferring that gold is undervalued? What's the play here?



My take on it is that Gold is very undervalued given the Fed, Geopolitics and overvalued Tech stocks on NASDAQ. 

I believe it will take very little to have a much bigger fall in value or change for the worse, in all of the above. 

BTC has been sucking up much of the money that traditionally went to Gold when these events were about to happen. 

It has been crazily overpriced. 

Being an anarchist at heart I do believe Crypto has a place, although ETH for me given its platform is a more pure play.

Fear as alway is the key. I can quickly buy anything with my gold bar. Could I, if if I held Crypto and everything corrected down?

gg


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## Garpal Gumnut (12 February 2022)

Garpal Gumnut said:


> My take on it is that Gold is very undervalued given the Fed, Geopolitics and overvalued Tech stocks on NASDAQ.
> 
> I believe it will take very little to have a much bigger fall in value or change for the worse, in all of the above.
> 
> ...



Just an update on how many ounces of Gold one would need to buy one Tulip, sorry a Freudian slip, one Bitcoin. 

BTC now down to 22.7783 oz give or take a touch on a bar.

If one were that unwise to trade an ounce of the good stuff for a "Coin" existing only in the Ether.

I'm considering going all in on Gold. 





gg


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## Sean K (12 February 2022)

Garpal Gumnut said:


> I'm considering going all in on Gold.




I think the mid term thesis on gold breaking up is correct, but I'm waiting for it to break. I thought it did late last year and started buying but JP Morgan has deeper pockets than I and stopped the run. Having said that, at the moment, it seems the risk to the break in the flag is to the upside as opposed to down. Although, I do know your upper resistance line is slightly different to mine and it's already well broken on your chart I think. But even so, if we do believe in the gold bull thesis, who cares what's happening in the very short term and a breakdown is just a buying opportunity. (I'm still working on the courage of my convictions mindset.)


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## Dona Ferentes (12 February 2022)

Garpal Gumnut said:


> I'm considering going all in on Gold.



as is one of the freebie _commentariat _that sends a weekly the inbox (get what U pay for).

_....There are a lot of dillweeds out there who play the chart game and say gold has had negative returns since 2011. True. But if you go back to the lows of 2000, gold has actually returned more than stocks. That was my thesis when I invested in gold in 2005—that it would outperform stocks over time. And for most of the last 17 years, my allocation to gold has met or exceeded my stock allocation. I don’t regret that, though the last couple of years have admittedly been difficult.

If an asset goes down or sideways for a period of time, investors lose faith. I used to have a Daily Dirtnap subscriber with enormous gold holdings who wrote me lengthy emails expressing his frustration with gold. I played gold psychologist for a while, but eventually left him to his own devices. I had my own problems with gold. How else to explain the fascination with bitcoin over the past few years? Who needs gold? It doesn’t go up?

It might be tempting to replace your gold holdings with_* bitcoin, *_but bitcoin does not solve any problems you currently have. When you add it to your portfolio, it increases your risk. It is highly correlated with tech stocks—it has turned into a long-duration asset. When you add gold to your portfolio, it decreases your risk. It isn’t much correlated with stocks or bonds or anything else. Everyone should hold a little gold, even if only for diversification purposes.

So, I think things are going to get better soon. I am somewhat sad to say that at the moment, it is my best idea. Kind of tough to pick stocks in a correction. I’m not that good.

Of course, all of this could turn to dust if gold breaks down instead of up. Gold does have an infinite capacity to disappoint. But I am excited that people I respect are getting excited about it. I have good company in the trade..._

Jarad Dillian -_ The 10th Man - This Time I Mean It_


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## Garpal Gumnut (14 February 2022)

Just a morning update on BTC and Gold. 

BTC has completed a double head and shoulders and I weep for daffodils and tulips. It ain't looking good. 

Gold is stationary so the central bankers are either asleep or coking the night away in Europe and the USA. Vlad is probably playing chess still. 







gg


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## Garpal Gumnut (18 February 2022)

As Gold heads for $USD2000, BTC has plummeted overnight by 7% and falling. 

It takes closer to 20oz and falling of Gold to buy one Bitcoin, which seems like a lot to me. 




gg


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## Garpal Gumnut (22 February 2022)

It would appear that War unlike Plague favours Gold over Bitcoin.

One BTC can now be bought with* less* than four 5oz bars of Gold.

Hardly a fair exchange.






gg


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## Garpal Gumnut (23 February 2022)

I must admit that I am tiring of this Bitcoin fantasia. 

It is a post Boomer American invention and as a proud boomer who loved boomer America I will accept nothing except Bitcoin's complete annihilation. 

It alone is preventing Gold from cruising to USD$3000-5000.







gg


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## Garpal Gumnut (24 February 2022)

This is a 2Y chart of Bitcoin v Gold. 

If Bitcoin falls below 17oz for one of the "coins" it is all over red rover. 

The big rotation back to the yellow metal will accelerate. 




gg


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## Trader X (24 February 2022)

The debate over which asset is a better store of value and safe haven should now be decided.  Gold is both and Bitcoin is neither.


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## Garpal Gumnut (25 February 2022)

Less than good news for Gold bugs this morning. 

BTC has recovered with the clarification of the Tsar's intentions while Gold has retraced. 




gg


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## Garpal Gumnut (26 February 2022)

Trader X said:


> The debate over which asset is a better store of value and safe haven should now be decided.  Gold is both and Bitcoin is neither.





Thanks @Trader X .

Your summary is spot on, and speaking of spot, my good friend Gold sits at $USD1889 for the weekend.

I must admit to having been drawn away by the smell of blood in the Crypto space but after sitting with the Finance and Expenditure arm of  "The Eat, Drink and Be Merry Committee" last night at the hotel I have awoken to decide that Crypto for me is a Volatility indicator rather than a store of value or wealth.

The madmen rush about.

I will buy Gold under $USD1800.

The XBT:XAU remains in the ascent with Bitcoin becoming too expensive in Gold ounces for this little digger.

gg


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## Sean K (26 February 2022)

Garpal Gumnut said:


> I will buy Gold under $USD1800.




We need it to stay above breakout 1850, GG. I'm a bit overbalanced in yellow stuff at the moment.


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## Garpal Gumnut (26 February 2022)

Sean K said:


> We need it to stay above breakout 1850, GG. I'm a bit overbalanced in yellow stuff at the moment.



Volatility may spread from the American markets to all assets and a dip below $USD1800 is not impossible for Gold. 

My overall sentiment for gold is very bullish. 

I would much prefer to be OW Gold than OW NASDAQ or Crypto. 



gg


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## Garpal Gumnut (28 February 2022)

1 XBT = 19.8449 XAU
Feb 27, 2022, 21:56 UTC
Feb 28, 2022  07:56 AEST

Gold starts trading in about 1 hour.

When do you guys down south get off sook time and back on to Australian time ? It must be soon.

gg


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## Sean K (28 February 2022)

Garpal Gumnut said:


> 1 XBT = 19.8449 XAU
> Feb 27, 2022, 21:56 UTC
> Feb 28, 2022  07:56 AEST
> 
> ...




Mad Vlad has gone full troppo. Looks like he's bogged down and Ukraine hasn't rolled over like he thought. Answer, hey, I've got nukes!

First Sun in April I think.


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## Dona Ferentes (28 February 2022)

Sean K said:


> First Sun in April I think.



With this gloomy _La Niña_ weather persisting, that could be around Anzac Day


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## Garpal Gumnut (2 March 2022)

Bitcoin made a spirited rally yesterday presently trading at $43,000 while Gold appreciates as it does in war. 

BTC v Gold has favoured BTC as the Russian oligarchs are forced to convert their il-gotten gains in to a transmissible "currency" back to Mother Putin. 

This has not been lost on the cousins at Langley, nor by the comrades in Osint and Anonymous. 

If this war spreads an attack on either BTC or Gold will begin. 

It will be difficult to destroy gold, as it has survived bigger empires than Russia over millennia. 

Bitcoin on the other hand is set for a DDOS or worse.  




gg


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## Garpal Gumnut (3 March 2022)

Bitcoin is still elevated but is running out of puff.

The Intelligence Committee at the hotel is investigating whether Osint, Bellingcat and Anonymous are planning an attack on Bitcoin to assist Ukraine. I overheard "double edged sword, Tesla, Elon is on Signal " as I brought the pies back from the bakery. They are quite on the spectrum that committee. 

Meanwhile back at the chart there has been a slight improvement in Gold v Bitcoin. 




gg


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## Garpal Gumnut (5 March 2022)

Just a quick update on BTC/Gold. 

Gold will be static over the weekend until trade on Monday. 

BTC has slipped to low $38900's last time I looked. 

It looks promising for Gold although the cousins in Frankfurt tell me Grozny kerosene may be paid in Bitcoin. Good luck with that. Give me a log fire any day.




gg


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## Garpal Gumnut (7 March 2022)

There is now an increasing correlation between BTC and the POG. 

In the 31minutes since Gold opened in Sydney after the weekend the flight from BTC has become marked and shadows the XAU extremely closely. 

I would hope there would be a further flight from BTC tonight when the cousins in New York wake up to trade. 




gg


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## Garpal Gumnut (10 March 2022)

Just an update on BTC XAU.

Gold fell today as we head in to the London session. 

BTC soraed overnight but is falling back again. 

What a kerfuffle

Not the time to be rash about anything although I've taken some profits on my Gold Bar. 





gg


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## Garpal Gumnut (28 March 2022)

Just an update on BTC v Gold in these volatile times. 

Crypto would appear to be rising against the yellow metal this latter half of March. 






gg


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## Dona Ferentes (29 March 2022)

Garpal Gumnut said:


> Just an update on BTC v Gold in these volatile times.
> Crypto would appear to be rising against the yellow metal this latter half of March.



One for you, _gg. _ In my inbox yesterday, the usual '_get what you pay for' _discourse. Lots of graphs, lots of "_I told you so's_"

But an interesting posit, as follows

_"At the end of last year total central bank foreign currency reserves amounted to nearly $13 trillion._

_Approximately 60% of which is in U.S dollars and 20% is in euros, the majority of which is invested in U.S and European government securities.

If you were responsible for the foreign exchange reserves of a central bank and given what has just happened to Russia, would you not be thinking about your exposure to U.S dollars, or euros?

If you were in Japan, South Korea, Australia, the U.K, France, Canada, or any other member of the western alliance, you wouldn’t be.

What, however, if you were in China, or even Saudi Arabia?

Surely you would think twice about where you invested? ....

In 2010 Russia had $176 billion invested in U.S Treasury securities and today it is $4.5 billion....

What about China?

The latest data shows that China has a bit over $1 trillion invested in U.S securities.

Remember China has total foreign exchange reserves of $3.22 trillion, which is the largest in the world.

What about Saudi Arabia?

Saudi has $119 billion in U.S Treasuries.

Pause for a moment, before you dismiss what I am about to say.

Remember that on 23 February 2022, the day before the invasion of Ukraine, no one thought that America and its European allies would sanction the Russian central bank.

The world has changed.

America has weaponized the dollar and Biden may not put NATO boots on the ground in Ukraine but he will use every tool at his disposal in the war between democracy and autocracy.

If you were sitting in Beijing with responsibility for a $1 trillion investment in U.S government debt would you be confident and comfortable?_

_Would you look to increase or decrease your exposure?_

_You know the answer._

_And, an even better question is what do they invest in?

There is only one true global store of value that has stood the test of ancient and modern history…5,000 years of turbulence, revolution, hyperinflation, world wars and changing currency regimes.

And it’s not bitcoin or any of the other 12,000, and counting, cryptocurrencies.

My bet is that some of America’s autocratic creditors will head for the exit in the years ahead.

Between you and me, it will not be years._


_Yes, and they will follow Putin’s lead and sell U.S Treasury securities and buy gold_. .... "

Jonathan Pain.


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## Garpal Gumnut (29 March 2022)

Dona Ferentes said:


> One for you, _gg. _ In my inbox yesterday, the usual '_get what you pay for' _discourse. Lots of graphs, lots of "_I told you so's_"
> 
> But an interesting posit, as follows
> 
> ...



Thanks @Dona Ferentes .

I believe it may have been you or one of the regular posters who said on one of the threads at the start of Putin's war with Ukraine that all financial markets would be affected by volatility and wide, wide swings.

That has certainly been the case with POI, POG, Stocks, BTC and Forex. 

I am usually a trend follower buying on breakouts but have changed tactics for the duration of the War to watching the waxing and waining of price. 

I'm cashed up, so am happy to buy more Gold at the appropriate time.

As well as a store of value it has with recent price action become a short term tradable entity. 

Having said that I'd prefer peace.

If someone gave me BTC tomorrow, I would instantly convert it to cash. It is a Toolip.

gg


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## Garpal Gumnut (13 June 2022)

Just an update of the price of BTC v Gold. 

It shows how many ounces of Gold will buy 1 Bitcoin. 

Quite a change.




gg


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## Dona Ferentes (13 June 2022)

Garpal Gumnut said:


> Just an update of the price of BTC v Gold.
> 
> It shows how many ounces of Gold will buy 1 Bitcon



But why would you want to buy bitcoin?


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## Garpal Gumnut (3 July 2022)

Just an update from a very interesting article on BTC vs Gold at kitco.com.









						Is the gold vs bitcoin debate still a thing?
					

(Kitco News) - Is this the end of the gold vs bitcoin debate?  The crypto sector has had a massive capitulation of late with some hedge funds closing down, brokers stopping withdraws, and some other serious issues.



					www.kitco.com
				




The summary is :



> Gold is just under flat at the moment but Bitcoin is currently running -59% down on the year. There are some correlations in the way the two assets move but when the going gets tough Bitcoin's losses are very volatile. As a store of value and safe haven, there is no question at the moment gold is the clear winner. If you are looking for the high beta play then Bitcoin could be your answer but for stability, there is no contest.




gg


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## Garpal Gumnut (5 January 2023)

Bitcoin continues to underperform Gold.

There is some correlation between BTC and Gold so from this and other charts I'm revising my price of BTC and Gold this year. 

BTC per Coin  :  $USD 5000
Gold per oz.    :  $USD 2500

So if BTC survives, and that is a big if, 1 BTC will buy 2 oz Gold. 

If BTC goes Tulip Up, 1 BTC will be worthless and Gold will be probably be $3500 per oz..

I may buy more Gold if the $USD weakens and our Aussie strengthens


.



gg


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## farmerge (5 January 2023)

Not a fan of any of the cryptos and wouldn't put my hard earned anywhere in touch with any of them. Gold a proven stayer over the centuries, I guess that is why so many want to dig the stuff up


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## frugal.rock (5 January 2023)

Not fully on topic but the timing of posting is interesting in relation to today's move on the crypto ETF 
*CRYP*. 

I don't see a reason for it except 
pre-emptive contrarian sort of stuff...
Not a huge amount of money flow but interesting none the less.


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## Garpal Gumnut (Monday at 7:53 AM)

A snippet from an AFR article today on Central Banks, Inflation and Assets.



> Watch bitcoin vs gold​One other asset class that ripped up the rule book since the GFC is also worth watching.
> 
> Cryptocurrency bitcoin is now a risk bellwether and proxy measure of eroding public trust in the ultra-loose monetary policies central banks reversed in 2022. By contrast, physical gold ignored the economic textbooks over the pandemic and failed to rise as a hedge against inflation, geopolitical volatility, or falling interest rates.
> 
> ...




gg


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