# Newbie Speculating and scared



## ALFguy (20 April 2006)

Hi all, 

I just blew 10k on a few stocks that I simply fancied.
All very speculative but not 'that' concerned about losing.
Still, I'd like to make something!   

That said, it's been about a week now and I'm down a fair bit   

Just wanted some pointers and general advice and where I could go next.
Thinking to cut my losses and try other stocks but also wondering if 1 week is a little too short to be worrying and maybe I should hang-on-in there and see what happens first.

I chose...  GBE  UXA and GHT   < like I said, for no other reason than I had a feeling.


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## Kipp (20 April 2006)

You lost 10K all up????  Share Prices don't disappear to 0- so my guess is you must of invested 100K+ to lose 10K... eessh.  Start of small, I'm very to the market and my total portfolio is only $6K- the losses can't be too bad with such small investments.

If you really have no idea, why not just use a funds manager?  There are alot of good ones out there, and you can save yourself alot of time/stress worrying about your stocks each day...


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## bullmarket (20 April 2006)

Firstly hi and welcome ALFguy 

and secondly..............oh dear   

From your post it sounds like you don't have a real plan of attack regarding your trading................maybe I'm wrong.

But if I'm not, the best advice I can give atm is to make your #1 priority to put together a written trading/investment plan.

There is plenty of info in various forums on this site and truck loads of books on trading/investing and how to go about it in libraries and all good book stores (and maybe even some dodgy ones   )

Anyway, I'm sure you'll get plenty of advice and suggested reading material in this thread............*but a very good read and starting point imo is "Trading With A plan" by Compton & Kendall*

hope this helps 

bullmarket


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## beachbum (20 April 2006)

If you are getting down on yourself about it, stop investing. Put your money in the bank and sleep at night. Then step back and learn what you need to know before trying again. Learning to trade ( or invest if you like ) is not easy. Do your homework, learn about money management, stop losses etc. Thinking that the market is a place to make money quickly gets beginners every time. If they get lucky early without knowing what they are doing, it just sets them up for a bigger fall. Not trying to scare, it's just reality. Having said this I hope you learn what you need to know. People work hard for their money and it's not nice to see them throw it into the market without a clue. Read Nick Radge's book Adaptive Analysis. Then read it again. Hope this helps.

Regards and best of luck.

PS.  You've heard the saying about luck. You know the one where they say hard work is lurking close by.


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## macca (20 April 2006)

Well, if I was you and I had just gone off like that, with no education, I would give my self an upper cut   

Then I would sell anything I was still holding  

Then I would contact Nick Radge and fly to his place and pay him to teach me what a goose I had been.  

Failing that I would still sell everything, and spend every night for at least a month reading this forum as well as Reefcap from start to finish, then I would buy Amibroker software and learn how to trade something like Tech Trader 2.

After that, maybe, I would start liking myself again and continue my education until I felt confident enough to create and backtest my own strategy.

Draw a line across your bank balance and start at the beginning this time  

You don't need luck, but you do need knowledge


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## Julia (20 April 2006)

ALFguy said:
			
		

> Hi all,
> 
> I just blew 10k on a few stocks that I simply fancied.
> All very speculative but not 'that' concerned about losing.
> ...




Not sure from your post whether you have actually exited these stocks or are simply down $10,000 on your original investment?

I don't suppose it matters much, because - like the others - I wouldn't be starting out (a) buying on a whim, or (b) jumping into such speccie stocks, and unless you have some good information to the contrary it's probably best to get out before you lose even more.

Macca's suggestion is good.  Failing your wanting to do that, at least log on to the ASX website and familiarise yourself with the various aspects of the market.

If you are determined to buy some stocks before arming yourself with some background knowledge and developing a plan, then my suggestion would be to stick to the top 100 until you have more understanding.

I could wish you luck, but think you'd be better off just getting realistic and doing some honest to goodness learning before expecting to jump in and get rich.

Julia


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## nizar (20 April 2006)

macca said:
			
		

> Well, if I was you and I had just gone off like that, with no education, I would give my self an upper cut
> 
> Then I would sell anything I was still holding
> 
> ...





Tend to agree

I dont understand why anybody would do that

WHen i first started, I did research on the company i wanted to buy into 2 months before i put my money in just to be cautious...

ALFguy - Read: One up on Wall St by Peter Lynch (1990), that should point u in the right direction as to how to choose stocks. I found it very useful...


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## yogi-in-oz (20 April 2006)

Hi ALFguy,

......  here's a FREE ebook, about developing your
own trading plan, written especially for newbies,
who throw money at the markets first, then 
wonder what action they should take afterwards, 
as the trades progress for better or worse:

FREE download in pdf format - "Trading Plan ... wozzat???" 

Enjoy the read.

happy days

  yogi


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## ALFguy (21 April 2006)

Wow, thanks for all the responses.
I kind of guessed I'd get a bit of a grilling.

It's not so bad, a 10k investment, split over these stocks and so far I'm down roughly $800 after 7 days.
As I said, it was speculative and I wasn't freaking that I may lose it all because I knew the risk, just like a trip to the casino.
Saying that, I had followed this forum for about a month before heading out to do this. Have read so many posts, recommendations (of a sort) as well as horror stories and happy tales of winners.
I just figured I'd go with a few I felt looked promising and see how it fared.

I hear everything you guys are saying and think I should do some reading.
But honestly, the initial step into this was rather like a trip to the races.
Wasn't planning on long term investments, just a quick money maker or money killer.

Since it wasn't going so good, I guess I was just after a little encouragement. 

Sell em and try again or see how it pans out..... UXA look promising to me.


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## michael_selway (21 April 2006)

ALFguy said:
			
		

> Hi all,
> 
> I just blew 10k on a few stocks that I simply fancied.
> All very speculative but not 'that' concerned about losing.
> ...




Zinc stocks dude

Zinc Majors: ZFX, PEM, KZL, TZN, CBH, OXR
Zinc Minors: HER, AIM, JML, INL, UCL, AUL





thx

MS


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## ALFguy (21 April 2006)

michael_selway said:
			
		

> Zinc stocks dude
> 
> Zinc Majors: ZFX, PEM, KZL, TZN, CBH, OXR
> Zinc Minors: HER, AIM, JML, INL, UCL, AUL
> ...




Michael, that's some history.... but knowing my luck, as soon as I buy, there'll be a downward spiral  Don't want to jinx it for you!


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## yogi-in-oz (21 April 2006)

Hi ALFguy,

At a more immediate level of PRACTICAL assistance, maybe 
some DISCUSSION about your individual holdings is in order.
Details below are for discussion only ..... no advice here.

Technically, ALL of these stocks have less than 6 months
trading history, so they present chartist few opportunities
to backtest for recurring patterns and other technical tools.

All is not lost, as we can still evaluate, both the PRICE
and TIME axis, as follows.

GBE ... in the attached chart, you will note .....

21122005 low =====>>> 08032006 high = 77 days

Rally in that period = 77 cents = 1 cent per day

Expected retracement = 77/2 = 38.5 + 18 low = 56.5
on ....................        08032006 + 38.5 days = 17042006   

..... and so it was too, but support at that level has failed,
so critical level of support will probably be found around
47.5, possibly 77 days out from the high, on 24052006 and.
this should be a key date ahead for GBE ..... see dotted, 
magenta triangle in GBE chart, attached.

Using the lower edge of that triangle as a guide, we 
can see that the 38.5 level, around 24042006 would be
an obvious point for traders to set an ambush for the 
falling price .... so a zone from 38.5-40.5 would be a 
likely target area for an expected bounce.

This analysis is further verified by the blue-dotted triangle,
projected out to the same price level at 47.5 and a Fibonacci
extension on the time elapsed for the rally ..... for example:

  77 days x 1.618 = 124 days + 08032006 = 10072006

-----

We can also use some independent time cycles to further
analyze the TIME axis and narrow some likely key dates,
for price swings in GBE:

21-24042006 ..... more negativity for GBE ...???

     26042006 ..... minor 

     08052006 ..... 3 cycles here ... significant (financial?)
                         news expected, though response may
                         be muted ..... ???

     22052006 ..... positive news here ..... figures within
                         a couple of days of our key retracement   
                         date mentioned above, on 24052006 ... 

     26052006 ..... another positive cycle and just a couple of
                         days beyond our 24052006 target date !~! 

      02062006 ..... minor ... finances??

      06062006 ..... significant and negative news???

      13062006 ..... significant and positive news/moves???

      19062006 ..... long, time cycle due here ... 
                          6 months on,  from the lows, on 21122005.                         

      27062006 ..... significant and negative spotlight on GBE

      29062006 ..... minor and positive ..... finances???

  07-10072006 ..... should see many stocks turn here, 
                           as there will probably be a focus
                           on oil prices ..... ??? ..... also our key
                           date, projected by Fibo extension, above.

      24072006 ..... significant and negative ???

  28-31072006 ..... 2 time cycles here .... should bring 
                           significant and positive changes ... ???     


In summary, in the short term our chart shows likely support
in a zone 37.5-40.5 cents, probably before 08052006 ???

Further out 22-26052006 should see a positive tone for GBE,
with the price around 47.5 ..... ???

Look ahead, mid-August should be positive for GBE and
a year after listing, GBE should be positively  BOOMING,
in mid-December 2006 ..... 

=====

Details above are for discussion only ..... no advice here.

=====

If you are interested in similar analysis for UXA and GHT,
just let us know and then stay tuned to the relevant,
individual stock threads ..... 

happy trading

  yogi


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## michael_selway (21 April 2006)

yogi-in-oz said:
			
		

> Hi ALFguy,
> 
> At a more immediate level of PRACTICAL assistance, maybe
> some DISCUSSION about your individual holdings is in order.
> ...




Actually Yogi, I have a question

instead of individual shares, can u see what teh stars say about future Zinc prices?

thx

MS


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## macca (21 April 2006)

Onya Yogi, a nice simple straight forward explanation, just what he needs     ha ha ha

I know it is how you trade (and have been for quite a while) BUT I can't get my head around that stuff and I have been trading for years.

Perhaps we could start with SR lines, trends or breakouts, you know that boring old stuff that has worked for years for us old fuddy duddies 

We are here to help each other and I don't like seeing beginners blow there money on speccies, they don't understand that with speccies you have to be nimble, most newbies fall in love with their stocks and get burned accordingly.

ALFguy, trading can be simple but it is never easy, you HAVE to learn if you wants to last the distance.

Good luck


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## ALFguy (21 April 2006)

yogi-in-oz said:
			
		

> If you are interested in similar analysis for UXA and GHT,
> just let us know and then stay tuned to the relevant,
> individual stock threads .....




Hi Yogi !

Thanks for that analysis - very interesting, if a little confusing.
Sounds like I should sell up GBE and buy back in when it drops  But what would I know.
Would def appreciate the same thing for UXA and GHT since they dropped again today and I'm developing a facial twitch.

or maybe I should jump on Zinc


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## mime (21 April 2006)

Don't worry I can't seem to win on spec stocks either.


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## Mikepaus (21 April 2006)

Alf
There is nothing worse than losing money and the best way to do that is not having a trading plan with definitive risk management strategies. It is so easy to buy a share its much harder to sell at a previously calculated loss. Buying and wishing is not the way to go.

Mikep


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## retroaugogo (21 April 2006)

I don't like to trade against the general market and this time of year can historically be pretty volatile.Do a google search on sell in May.

Well done for giving it a go,in the longrun it's the only way to learn.
Think of it as an apprenticeship and as long as you have enough money to stay in the game you'll eventually learn to win.

Find a style that suits your personality and that works for you.

Good fortune.


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## ALFguy (21 April 2006)

Feel like a kid in a classroom full of teachers  

Have to say thank you again for all the postings. It's a great forum you've got here and everyone is so supportive.

Have def learnt my lesson and am now in the indecision stage of whether to sell everything and cut my losses. That's probably wise based on all the information above.

Am going to sit in a corner for a few weeks reading all about how this thing works. 

I know ppl have recommended books, but just wondering if anyone has any thoughts on this book as a starter:

Share Trading (10th Anniversary Edition) by Daryl Guppy???
I scanned through it today and it looked pretty informative, with information on trends etc


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## clowboy (22 April 2006)

If you have lost $800 on the market in a week then what is another $800 on books?  At least you get to keep the books.

Start with Guppy then work through the list.  $800 will get you somewhere between 5-30 books depending on what you buy.


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## Riles (22 April 2006)

Sometimes it helps just to hear someone elses opinion. When you have an open position it can be tough to decide to sell once it turns against you, especially if you've just bought because you thought it looked good.

You have 4 scenarios to deal with:

Sell - and the price goes up. You'll be kicking yourself for ever doubting.

Sell - and the price goes down. You'll be vindicated for acting quickly and decisively.

Hold - and the price goes up. You'll be relieved, re-invigorated, thankful and hopeful.

Hold - and the price goes down. You'll regret not selling sooner and will have to hold and hope for a rebound.

Unfortunately, Murphy's law and other forces sometimes work against us and you have that nagging feeling that as soon as you sell, the price will start to go up again.

You have to try to increase your odds of picking the right choice by doing some research.
Why did the price go down? Were there any announcements that the market didn't like?
Is it because of a drop in the commodities price? Why did the price go up in the first place?

If there's no fundamental reason for the sell-off, then look at the charts.

GBE: broke out from .29c with a huge spike to .76c. Why?
It retreated slowly to around .57c, spiked again then retreated back to 57 again creating an obvious support. Once this was broken was the signal to sell - which has happened.
This is not looking good with downside potential to around .22c

UXA: support also broken resulting in sell off. This time there's not much downside comparing to recent price movements. Some may consider this a good buying opportunity in what is technically still an uptrend.

GHT: seems to be in an uptrend and may be worthwhile holding above .30c

Note I'm just a casual observer with no interest in these stocks other than as an excercise in how I might interpret them at this point in time. Please don't take my ramblings as advice.


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## beachbum (22 April 2006)

That's it Riles. KISS principle is the best advice. Don't look for something that isn't there. If it doesn't hit you in the face, don't look at it.


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## nizar (22 April 2006)

Riles said:
			
		

> Hold - and the price goes down. You'll regret not selling sooner and will have to hold and hope for a rebound.





Or u can sell at a loss and move on, no emotion, no ego, and move onto something else that uv researched

If u hold waiting for a rebound then u have opportunity cost to deal with as well


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## michael_selway (22 April 2006)

beachbum said:
			
		

> That's it Riles. KISS principle is the best advice. Don't look for something that isn't there. If it doesn't hit you in the face, don't look at it.




what is the KISS principle?

thx

MS


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## nizar (22 April 2006)

michael_selway said:
			
		

> what is the KISS principle?
> 
> thx
> 
> MS




Keep
It
Simple
Stupid


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## bullmarket (22 April 2006)

nizar said:
			
		

> Keep
> It
> Simple
> Stupid




I like to KISS


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## ALFguy (22 April 2006)

Have just bought my first book...yay. Time to study.
Freaked out watching GBE drop so much on Friday, so am thinking to get out of GBE and UXA asap, but hold onto GHT.
This was my first thought before Riles gave his   
Appeciate all the posts....
Lesson learnt....be back when I'm a man with a plan!


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