# PANIC!!!!! (Strategies for those long)



## tech/a

*PANIC!!!!!*

Ok your long and fully committed.

Your caught in the heavy down move and if you sold out would lose 1000s.

In this situation I'm interested in what those who post here are or would be doing.

I have 2 positions only and I know what I will be doing.

Comments.


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## Sean K

*Re: PANIC!!!!!*



			
				tech/a said:
			
		

> Ok your long and fully committed.
> 
> Your caught in the heavy down move and if you sold out would lose 1000s.
> 
> In this situation I'm interested in what those who post here are or would be doing.
> 
> I have 2 positions only and I know what I will be doing.
> 
> Comments.



I'm holding longer term stocks that should weather ok in this, unless the WayneL led depression kicks in.   Looking for good shorting opportunities if this is going to be sustained. Haven't sold the spi yet as I expect a pull back up.


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## sam76

*Re: PANIC!!!!!*

I would like to sell and purchase back at a lower price.

Work commitments don't allow this (and from what I hear online brokers as well)

So I'll hold.


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## constable

*Re: PANIC!!!!!*



			
				tech/a said:
			
		

> Ok your long and fully committed.
> 
> Your caught in the heavy down move and if you sold out would lose 1000s.
> 
> In this situation I'm interested in what those who post here are or would be doing.
> 
> I have 2 positions only and I know what I will be doing.
> 
> Comments.



im not doing much at all, picked up some more auz thats about it so far.
All but 2 of my stocks have dropped and will possibly sell those so i can top up while the price is down on ones i already own. Pf taken a hit but not particularly concerned.


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## insider

*Re: PANIC!!!!!*

This is worrying... I can't login to comsec because it says the server is too busy!!!!


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## petervan

*Re: PANIC!!!!!*

Going out to mow the lawn then come in and watch the Chinese market open.Not much we can do.


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## pacer

*Re: PANIC!!!!!*

Put my head between my legs and kiss my butt goodbye......or

Or take out a loan and tripple the ammount of shares I am long on, and spend the next week praying it turns around.....if that fails do as above.....lol


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## tomcat

*Re: PANIC!!!!!*

I'm holding ADI and PWK...would have to try and call commsec if I wanted to sell anyway and i doubt i could get through...I was always going long on these two anyway so I just have to hold and see where I am in a year or so time


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## brendan87

*Re: PANIC!!!!!*

When does china open? I think it could spill lower (thats based on the shanghai metals exchange hiccup where the commodities fell their limit 3 days straight in January).


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## imajica

*Re: PANIC!!!!!*

after every correction we see the market reach new and even more impressive highs - just chill,  don't panic and have a long view.


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## lesm

*Re: PANIC!!!!!*

Staying cool, calm and collected and looking for potential opportunities.   

No rush, panic can be expensive emotionally as well as financially.


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## Freeballinginawetsuit

*Re: PANIC!!!!!*

I will be holding my long positions... its all relative with those  .

With my trading funds it will be the same as usual......Today may hit my bottom line 10 odd percent......so what. Every chance a bit of carnage may present some opportunities that might not have been their previously.

Personally Last night was an eye opener for me on this forum, not hard to read between the lines.......quite obviously some crew have been burnt/frustrated at others gains and out it all came. Plenty of them in the world


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## chops_a_must

*Re: PANIC!!!!!*

I got out of just about all of my miners in late january because of precisely a fear of something like this happening. Started looking at biotechs, held my oilers (and still will).

Sold out of a few things at a nice profit still, and now looking to get some ridiculously oversold stocks. Just an opportunity to get some stocks I wanted before that I thought were too expensive (and toppy). I'm not worried at all.


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## imajica

*Dont Panic!!!!!!!!!!*

let's not play follow the leader - be a bit contrarian, have some guts, hold onto the shares that you know are going to shine for years to come


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## speves

*Re: PANIC!!!!!*

sane advice LESM.....there is money to be made today...if you can get through to a broker!!!


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## moses

*Re: PANIC!!!!!*



			
				tech/a said:
			
		

> Ok your long and fully committed.
> 
> Your caught in the heavy down move and if you sold out would lose 1000s.
> 
> In this situation I'm interested in what those who post here are or would be doing.




Thats me. I'm fully committed and it looks like I'm down about %15. Aside from re-evaluating why I was caught by surprise...

1. Don't panic.

2. What loss?

3. What's next?

4. Trade deliberately


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## brendan87

*Re: PANIC!!!!!*

Things are pretty calm now. I think alot of the panic is over. Maybe most people are in shock or licking their wounds....or blissfully unaware at work.


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## noirua

*Re: PANIC!!!!!*

At least small traders can get out of stocks as quickly as the big guys these days. However, fingers hovering over buttons can easily crash the whole market in a few hours. 

Mining stocks with plenty of cash and good earnings will not be hurt by what is happening today, unless, they are involved in South Africa or a dodgy outpost. My view, certainly not advice, is to watch the good stocks that you have been following and, perhaps, take advantage when they fall heavily like the rest. 

"Panic", well, you can if you like. Am I panicking?  No, I'm just feeling sorry for myself having twisted my knee today and thinking that this is just a very big shakeout after no real correction for years.


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## nomore4s

*Re: PANIC!!!!!*



			
				brendan87 said:
			
		

> Things are pretty calm now. I think alot of the panic is over. Maybe most people are in shock or licking their wounds....or blissfully unaware at work.




Or can't get on to their broker, lol


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## nioka

*Re: Dont Panic !!!!!!!!!!*



			
				imajica said:
			
		

> let's not play follow the leader - be a bit contrarian, have some guts, hold onto the shares that you know are going to shine for years to come



Agree 100%. Don't let the banks and brokers make a fortune today. Most of the companies you hold shares in are not really worth any less today than they were yesterday all that has changed is the SP. You only lose if you sell.


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## Seaking

*Re: PANIC!!!!!*

I only trade short to medium term and I started the morning with 10 long and 2 short positions. I now have 3 long and 2 short positions.
All the longs were closed at open as they were going to open below their stops. 
Now I might finish packing up for my fishing trip and forget about trading for a few days...


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## brendan87

*Re: PANIC!!!!!*

Yeah that'd be pretty frustrating. The trick must be to get on early on days like today, i was on at 8:30 EST and haven't had any disruption. Pity to people trying to phone through, I was gonna top up my ML in light of todays..."events" but I might wait till things settle (or am I asking too much)  lol


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## Reefer

*Re: PANIC!!!!!*

It's interesting seeing some of the posts of those lucky enough to be cashed up and buying in todays market. Someone referred to selling all yesterday which shows almost crystal ball abilities.  Other have been expecting the correction and have been cashed up for some time.  But what have they missed out on along the way.  I've made $48k since 31 December by being fully invested in the market and dropped the best part of $30k this morning. I'm not too worried cos I reckon they will bounce back. All of my stocks I'm happy to be in and I'm pissed I have no cash to buy more.


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## brendan87

*Re: PANIC!!!!!*

Here....want to see some green?

http://www.sse.com.cn/sseportal/ps/zhs/home.shtml

The SSE posts downs as green ?!? LMAO ...One has to find the bright side on days like today.


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## Realist

*Re: PANIC!!!!!*

I finally managed to log into Commsec.

And I think the whole neighbourhood would have heard an extremely loud "Ohh Faaaarrrrkkkk" as I saw what I had lost.

But I am holding everything....


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## cuttlefish

*Re: PANIC!!!!!*

I've sold down a fair bit on metal stocks and a little on the gold - prefer to take a small cash hit today early and have cash ready for when the real bargains are around when the dust settles (which could potentially be a while away yet). 

This smells like the possible start of a reversal rather than a correction to me and I'm happy to have some money back in the bank for a while.  I know that some things will be oversold and bounce back but still happy to go partially flat for now.


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## insider

*DON'T SELL YOU PANICY BUNCH!!!!!!!!!!*

These falls aren't anything to get worried about... yet anyway... Remember, If you're close to 50% CGT or chasing it then you probably will find it's cheaper to hold...


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## jet328

*Re: PANIC!!!!!*

What time does China open AEDST?


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## chops_a_must

*Re: PANIC!!!!!*

All of my stocks are reacting very well to mid and long term support. If it breaks this, then it's time to get out. That's my thinking at the moment anyway. But the stocks I'm holding are actually looking really strong, and creeping back up.


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## Realist

*Re: PANIC!!!!!*

12:30 - in one and a half hours!!

Go China!!    :


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## insider

*Re: PANIC!!!!!*

Hey at least everyone's stock picks for the stock tipping competition is going to start nice and low


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## nizar

*Re: PANIC!!!!!*



			
				Realist said:
			
		

> 12:30 - in one and a half hours!!
> 
> Go China!!    :




Where can we see what the chinese stockmarket is doing at least the Index?

If it rebounds today then we are all good?


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## brendan87

*Re: PANIC!!!!!*

I think that depending on what you hold, it doesn't matter what China does today. There are HUNDREDS of companies with 0 China exposure and that don;t do business with China or any other company that does business with China. Look at the banks, LPT, consumer staples and utilities to name a few...off 1-2.5% today. What a good opportunity to buy ! I'd wait and see for the miners/China exposed stocks until the SSE opens but even the China-heavy stocks have pulled back slightly since the open. You have to be realistic and think...has today changed the fundamental value of my stocks? And you will find the answer is a resounding 'no', even for your Chine/resource-exposed holdings.


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## Sodapop

*Re: PANIC!!!!!*

"Mixed emotions..." - I don`t think there`s a heap to worry about (yet)... But it is certainly a wake-up call to many people (many who are overlaoding Commsec and making management there VERY HAPPY) who seem to think that these thingys called shares have an exclusively ballistic trajectory... And then trumpet to all and sundry about what genuises they are - might not be hearing it so much now... As was eludicated - a good coy with good prospects won`t change after this - but the dozens of floats that have come to market in the last few months with nothing but tenements, rock chips, and conceptual models might be going bye bye... If anything this would help alleviate some of the labour shortages that have been crippling some of the smaller projects...


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## Dr Doom

*Re: PANIC!!!!!*

I've just gone boots n all long XJO. Bargain time


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## IGO4IT

*Re: PANIC!!!!!*

My bad luck is that I'm fully comitted heavily in 3 stocks, I sold some on loss after 10:30 today & am spreading buys all over the mining industry & specially Nickel stocks......by the way....nickel was up yesterday   

yes it may take some time for full recovery, so I'm not buying heavily today, I'm keeping big portion for futher chances if the dive keeps going.

cheers,


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## Prospector

*Re: PANIC!!!!!*

Well, am holding tight except for one share and have just sold that one now, to protect profits.  MFS is in a trading halt so that is doing really well - by maintaining yesterday's close.  Does that count as a Green  

NAB online seems to be holding up but some sales were delayed due to increased volumes, or maybe they were the buys which is why everything is crashing.  I wish....


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## Magdoran

*Re: PANIC!!!!!*



			
				Dr Doom said:
			
		

> I've just gone boots n all long XJO. Bargain time



That’s a brave call.  


Funny, I learned an axiom about trying to catch a falling knife a long time ago, and still apply it.  

In this scenario I have no longs, and have been focussed on the short side since the start of last week…

I think there is significant downside potential currently… but in specific sectors.

Mag


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## nizar

*Re: PANIC!!!!!*



			
				Dr Doom said:
			
		

> I've just gone boots n all long XJO. Bargain time




Well done youve already made a bit.


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## >Apocalypto<

*Re: PANIC!!!!!*

i cut lose two call options on the xjo on open to keep my profit at 7k they expire in march. If they had another 3 moths to expire i would have kept them.

As for what is happeing today hard to say weather it will take a day a week or a month to bounce back.

But I am looking to go long, pulled a short on open made couple of pennies but my trailing stop was hit real fast.

May go short again if there is another disaster in China exchange.

Back to topic

If i was holding long term positions and they where still above trend lines i would not panic.


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## dubiousinfo

*Re: PANIC!!!!!*

Someone bought 1.2mil XJO put warrants @ 42c this morning, now trading at 36c. Wonder how they will end the day?


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## Smurf1976

*Re: PANIC!!!!!*

If you're going to panic then panic early before everyone else does. It's cheaper that way.


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## numbercruncher

*Re: PANIC!!!!!*

I think this sums it up ....

"It is too early to tell whether the decline today constitutes a healthy correction in China or the opening act of a broader collapse."

Im mostly cashed and plan to wait until China opens today to make desicisions .....

Way i see it in China is good old Human nature at work, things where/are booming and all people saw was the Sky, now a slight correction and maybe all some people will see is the ground ? ofcoarse neither of these strategies/choices are correct. But Greed and/or Desperation bring consequences.

They say people in China, from Shoe shine boys to executives are mortgaging homes, maxing credit cards etc to get in on the stock market action (over 100pc up in a year) because of superstition, one of the luckiest years, year of the "Golden Pig" is drawing masses of this speculitive (aka Gambling) cash..


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## Dr Doom

*Re: PANIC!!!!!*

I think there is anecdotal evidence of a lot of cash being on the sideline waiting for a day like today, in which case we should see the OZ market recover in the short term, but not too sure for the long term when structural problems in the US & China come into play.


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## Dr Doom

*Re: PANIC!!!!!*



			
				Magdoran said:
			
		

> That’s a brave call.
> 
> 
> Funny, I learned an axiom about trying to catch a falling knife a long time ago, and still apply it.
> 
> In this scenario I have no longs, and have been focussed on the short side since the start of last week…
> 
> I think there is significant downside potential currently… but in specific sectors.
> 
> Mag




Mag, only in while it holds, still bearish, trade still in the money.... 

The market is coming back as we speak, don't know for how long though?


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## MichaelD

*Re: PANIC!!!!!*



			
				tech/a said:
			
		

> Ok your long and fully committed.
> 
> Your caught in the heavy down move and if you sold out would lose 1000s.
> 
> In this situation I'm interested in what those who post here are or would be doing.



It's simple really, and amazing that only a few in this thread actually have though about in advance what to do when the one way elevator stops.

TRADE THE PLAN, LUKE, TRADE THE PLAN.

From a personal point of view (I'm all long as of last night, both long term and short term but have been noticing more and more short signals in the short term system);

1. Long term - at this stage, nothing has fallen through its stop loss. If anything does, I'll close it and continue to trade the plan.

2. Short term - 1 mining position has been hammered and will probably close tomorrow for a 2-3R loss (the first black swan the system has had and undoubtedly not the last) and the other two may close at 0.5R - 1R losses. But who knows how the day/week will end up - seems to be a lot of knife catching going on at the moment.

There is no place for fear or panic when running a business. Indeed, I am looking forward to the next few weeks of trading since I've never traded the short term plan for real in anything other than the recent bull run and it's designed to adapt to changing conditions. It'll be a great test for the system.


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## Dr Doom

*Re: PANIC!!!!!*



			
				MichaelD said:
			
		

> It's simple really, and amazing that few in this thread actually have though about in advance what to do when the one way elevator stops.




No, a few people here have planned for this very day. I have been in cash and gold for the last month or so, and plan to top up my gold stocks in this 'correction' if the price is right.


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## Magdoran

*Re: PANIC!!!!!*



			
				Dr Doom said:
			
		

> Mag, only in while it holds, still bearish, trade still in the money....
> 
> The market is coming back as we speak, don't know for how long though?



Yup, trading the bullish counter trend makes sense if you're gutsy... then short the the lower high.. The question is when and at what point?  Are you trading technically?


Mag


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## MichaelD

*Re: PANIC!!!!!*



			
				Dr Doom said:
			
		

> No, a few people here have planned for this very day.



Absolutely, but most haven't, hence the mad, fearful stampede for the exit at 10am this morning.


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## Kimosabi

*Re: PANIC!!!!!*



			
				Dr Doom said:
			
		

> No, a few people here have planned for this very day. I have been in cash and gold for the last month or so, and plan to top up my gold stocks in this 'correction' if the price is right.




I did the same.

Once I started reading up on the US Subprime Mortage Market and connected the flow-on dot's, I concluded that the best course of action was Cash and Gold as well.

I think this is only the beginning because there is way too much irresponsible lending going on out there at the moment.

Now how do I make money in a Bear Market?


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## Kauri

*Re: PANIC!!!!!*



			
				tech/a said:
			
		

> Ok your long and fully committed.
> 
> Your caught in the heavy down move and if you sold out would lose 1000s.
> 
> In this situation I'm interested in what those who post here are or would be doing.
> 
> I have 2 positions only and I know what I will be doing.
> 
> Comments.




   I went to the beach and went swimming during the opening hour of the market, knowing that the GSL on my CFD's would do its job, also I didn't want to be tempted to take any rash trades. About 60% of my open trades have been closed automatically via the GSL, the rest are looking OK, so far. Was tempted to short the ASX200 last night, was only 40points down with IG when Wayne Duc and Mag were jumping in the "Charting the crash" thread, but thought better of it.


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## Pager

*Re: PANIC!!!!!*

I’m a long term investor, have a margin loan but a very conservative LVR, considering the market has fallen to levels last seen at the beginning of the month, im not overly concerned if anything think it’s a pretty healthy occurrence, brings a lot of people weather they be professional investors or the small guys back to reality.

The pullback was well overdue and I for one have a few stocks on my radar to add to my long term holdings should the price be right once the dust has settled.

Cheers

Pager


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## PureCoco

*Re: PANIC!!!!!*

With every one so focused on the "downward spiral" , perhaps a more useful look at it is the amount of people buying IN.  Who wouldn't be doing if they thought this was a bottomless pit.  I just got back from 3 weeks in Asia and from watching Asia CNN and BBC interviews (around the lunar New Year time) , the auspicious believe metal will do well.  Those based on Fire won't fair so well they named oil and gas - sorry but I am still going to drive my car.   Positive People Please.


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## Garpal Gumnut

*Re: PANIC!!!!!*

Greed and Fear are the only two emotions worth having in this situation. 

As of 11.43 am I'm getting Greedy. 

I was blissfully unaware of all this kerfuffle until 10 minutes ago. 

Garpal


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## MichaelD

*Re: PANIC!!!!!*

IMHO, at around about 12:30pm or so the market's tone changed from panic to bargain hunting. All the sellers forcing their way out the door at the same time this morning are now gone. With no one else wanting to sell, buyers are moving back in and pushing prices back up again.

Truly fascinating to watch - a wonderful example of human nature playing out before our very eyes.


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## dubiousinfo

*Re: PANIC!!!!!*



			
				dubiousinfo said:
			
		

> Someone bought 1.2mil XJO put warrants @ 42c this morning, now trading at 36c. Wonder how they will end the day?




Actually it was 43c they bought at. Now at 31c. Thats about $150k.


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## CanOz

*Re: PANIC!!!!!*



			
				MichaelD said:
			
		

> IMHO, at around about 12:30pm or so the market's tone changed from panic to bargain hunting. All the sellers forcing their way out the door at the same time this morning are now gone. With no one else wanting to sell, buyers are moving back in and pushing prices back up again.
> 
> Truly fascinating to watch - a wonderful example of human nature playing out before our very eyes.




DEAD CAT BOUNCE!  

Cheers,


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## nizar

*Re: PANIC!!!!!*



			
				MichaelD said:
			
		

> IMHO, at around about 12:30pm or so the market's tone changed from panic to bargain hunting. All the sellers forcing their way out the door at the same time this morning are now gone. With no one else wanting to sell, buyers are moving back in and pushing prices back up again.
> 
> Truly fascinating to watch - a wonderful example of human nature playing out before our very eyes.




The bargain hunting in PDN started at about 10:30am!!


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## billhill

*Re: PANIC!!!!!*

I'm kinda glad there has been a slight correction today. How far it will go i don't know but the fundamentals of both markets and my stocks haven't really changed so i'm not too worried. Once we get this correction out of the way we can get on with the rest of the year. No need to panic.


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## carmo

*Re: PANIC!!!!!*

Ummm, change of strategy, hang on to stocks for 12m + , collect three dividends, then sell with a 50% discount on CGT.


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## PureCoco

*Re: PANIC!!!!!*

Love it!  even in the middle of a "panic" there is still time for lunch!  the posts slowed as did the buying.  Common sense prevails around food.


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## theasxgorilla

*Re: PANIC!!!!!*

What a work of art...I like to call it, "the Greenspan":

Marvel at the beauty of a 3.5% open/close down bar on the S&P500.


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## Dr Doom

*Re: PANIC!!!!!*



			
				Magdoran said:
			
		

> Yup, trading the bullish counter trend makes sense if you're gutsy... then short the the lower high.. The question is when and at what point?  Are you trading technically?
> 
> 
> Mag



Mag, for what it's worth, I trade the XJO cfd on a 10 min chart with confirmation from BHP & XTL 1 minute chart. Keep it simple I say, works for me on day's like today  Looks like sideways to lower for rest of the day, a more interesting day will be tomorrow I think.


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## moses

*Re: PANIC!!!!!*



			
				CanOz said:
			
		

> DEAD CAT BOUNCE!
> 
> Cheers,



care to expand?


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## numbercruncher

*Re: PANIC!!!!!*

Interesting though isnt it, just shows you how jumpy the entire worlds equity markets are .....


The way overinflated Chinese market takes a hit and every other market follows!!


Cautionary warning in this i feel!


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## Magdoran

*Re: PANIC!!!!!*



			
				Dr Doom said:
			
		

> Mag, for what it's worth, I trade the XJO cfd on a 10 min chart with confirmation from BHP & XTL 1 minute chart. Keep it simple I say, works for me on day's like today  Looks like sideways to lower for rest of the day, a more interesting day will be tomorrow I think.



Aha, a day trader no less.  Makes sense.  I just can’t handle the pressure to make calls that fast anymore.  Used to trade warrants a lot a few years ago, but much prefer position trading now…

I suppose that in my view currently the dominant trend in the daily may now be bearish, hence I’ll look to short the rallies, instead of what the majority have been doing during the majority of the bull campaign, buying the dips.  Kind of counter intuitive…

I take it you won’t hold overnight?


Mag


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## Dr Doom

*Re: PANIC!!!!!*



			
				Magdoran said:
			
		

> I take it you won’t hold overnight?
> 
> 
> Mag




No, out already at 5860. Hands in pockets time now. 
DD


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## Magdoran

*Re: PANIC!!!!!*



			
				Dr Doom said:
			
		

> No, out already at 5860. Hands in pockets time now.
> DD



Sounds wise to me... nice day trade, well done!


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## tech/a

*Re: PANIC!!!!!*

Like Michael its an easy call for me.

If it hits its stop I'm out.
If it hits its exit I'm out.(All my longterm exits are based upon close).

If it gives a buy signal in the future--buy.

I doubt I'll see longterm buy signals for a while as they operate off the Highest high for 70 bars and a cross of the highest bar for the last 10 bars (double dutch I know) but it keeps you out of taking long positions longerterm if there is a prolonged correction.

I'm giving back some serious open profit currently but doesnt look to bad on the EXIT front.

Dont think this is over for a little while.

5 yrs before the XAO hits 6000-----I've got that archived----classic.


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## greggy

*Re: PANIC!!!!!*

Having seen many booms and crashes since 1979 when I began trading, we have nothing to fear except fear itself.  I'm holding, have no debt (paid it off recently with profits) and picked up some more HCY this morning at 1.7c.  This sell off is mild compared to many other occasions.  Hold on to your seats though for a bit of a wild time.  Those who sold when last year's correction was at its worst are still regreting their decision to sell.
DYOR


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## dj_420

*Re: PANIC!!!!!*

so far ive only lost gains from yesterday, thanks mostly to SMM. im in the position now where losses today are around 7% of capital. i think we may see further downside and i may exit some positions before the day is out. 

we have seen a decent bounce, but thats what happened last correction, many many days in a row. market is down ppl try and pick the bottom, market turns then next day is down again.

what do people think?


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## Prospector

*Re: PANIC!!!!!*

I think tonight will tell the story when the US market opens.  There is a lot of Super cash around at the moment and so maybe the market will bounce up for an hour or so as people look for bargains, then the uncertainty about tonight will creep in and maybe a fall again.  Just my thoughts and really they aren't worth all that much.  

I do have a green though - WOW :


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## brendan87

*Re: PANIC!!!!!*

MBL is taking a big late session hit. Now on daily low of 78.80 and dropping (that's 6.57%!)


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## wayneL

*Re: PANIC!!!!!*



			
				Prospector said:
			
		

> *I think tonight will tell the story when the US market opens.  There is a lot of Super cash around at the moment* and so maybe the market will bounce up for an hour or so as people look for bargains, then the uncertainty about tonight will creep in and maybe a fall again.  Just my thoughts and really they aren't worth all that much.
> 
> I do have a green though - WOW :



Yes tonight will say volumes as to whats really going on.

I have a feeling the US will be supported via the PPT and "dip buyers", so I'm expecting it to stall (expectations and reality often diverge  )

On the other hand, looking at whats happening in the Yen carry trade, bonds, and uncertainty in gold, it could be a serious route. The elephant in the room is the carry trade, but there is actually a herd of elephants in the guise of sub-prime motrgage lender disintegration, a US RE market in freefall, overvaluation across asset classes and impending recession (as warned of by Greedscam)

For the potential to turn into something really ugly, this event certainly has the potential, but as western governments are nearing their election cycle, they will be desperate to try and prop this up.

Interesting times.


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## Magdoran

*Re: PANIC!!!!!*



			
				wayneL said:
			
		

> Yes tonight will say volumes as to whats really going on.
> 
> I have a feeling the US will be supported via the PPT and "dip buyers", so I'm expecting it to stall (expectations and reality often diverge  )
> 
> On the other hand, looking at whats happening in the Yen carry trade, bonds, and uncertainty in gold, it could be a serious route. The elephant in the room is the carry trade, but there is actually a herd of elephants in the guise of sub-prime motrgage lender disintegration, a US RE market in freefall, overvaluation across asset classes and impending recession (as warned of by Greedscam)
> 
> For the potential to turn into something really ugly, this event certainly has the potential, but as western governments are nearing their election cycle, they will be desperate to try and prop this up.
> 
> Interesting times.



You crack me up Count “Pirate Bear”


“Greedscam” – I fell off my chair with that one!!! (Almost killed my cat too!).


The pattern just looks like a lot of stocks will want to recover over the next few days to me.

I tend to agree, looking at the sharpness of the bar, I would expect the dip buyers to come in seeing “value”, and see a bullish counter trend for 1-4 days with a set of inside days to today’s price bar.  Then we should see a retest of the low, and perhaps a continuation of the bear move.  

We may see a concerted continuation after this to wash out the sellers.  If this is impulsive, suspect support should be short lived, and there will be some wide range bars down, then an “ABC” bullish counter trend, then another leg down… maybe, if this is a wave 3 0f 5 of 5… (wavepicker???).

Alternatively, this could be an “ABC”, and then continue bullishly right away and retest the current major high (23 Feb). 

We could even see a rally back for a marginal high depending on how the pattern unfolds.

My current view is for a correction chopping around to 18th July (other key time points are (minor) 14 March, (major) 01 April, 13 April).

Support levels are difficult to deal with since there are several ways of dealing with this, but I’d see 5560 as key support to this initial move.


Regards


Magdoran


----------



## tech/a

*Re: PANIC!!!!!*

Moggi.

Right at this very moment (Next few days) I dont think you can chart or guess corrective patterns (Could be wrong).
*Think however you can predict crowd behaviour.*

Going on todays price action few took up the opportunity to buy at lower pricing--it was muted.
China's lead a little higher may help USA buyers become optimistic and some buying back at these levels.
If so the same will happen here.
Until selling pressure is replaced by buying things will remain flat as participants look at everything from other markets to gold,to currency for a lead.
These will be critical for longterm stability or change in sentiment.

For me to early to predict anything longerterm ie length and extent of correction,and everything else is on a daily what leads what basis.

one thing I think is certain.

VOLATILITY


----------



## goldilocks

*Re: PANIC!!!!!*

Ouch!   CFD stop loss useless.  Just gets you out at the first price of the day, which in this case was the lowest price.

Didn't use guaranteed stop loss which can only be set at 5% below prevailing price anyway.

Need to lick wounds and figure out how to prevent this in future.  Maybe safer to stick to ordinary share trading and away from these CFDs.


----------



## OK2

*Re: PANIC!!!!!*

Ok, now I really don't get it!!! I come home from work and what has taken me 9 months to recover from the last so called correction is gone in a day and no one has quoted "a sea of red" or "blood on the floor". You guys not going soft on me are you? (starting to feel a little like Wile E Coyote chasing the Roadrunner in the cartoons, just as I catch up CRASH!!!)


----------



## Magdoran

*Re: PANIC!!!!!*



			
				tech/a said:
			
		

> Moggi.
> 
> Right at this very moment (Next few days) I dont think you can chart or guess corrective patterns (Could be wrong).
> *Think however you can predict crowd behaviour.*
> 
> Going on todays price action few took up the opportunity to buy at lower pricing--it was muted.
> China's lead a little higher may help USA buyers become optimistic and some buying back at these levels.
> If so the same will happen here.
> Until selling pressure is replaced by buying things will remain flat as participants look at everything from other markets to gold,to currency for a lead.
> These will be critical for longterm stability or change in sentiment.
> 
> For me to early to predict anything longerterm ie length and extent of correction,and everything else is on a daily what leads what basis.
> 
> one thing I think is certain.
> 
> VOLATILITY



You’d be surprised daffy, that the XAO closed right on a price marker I’d projected for support today.  Interestingly so did the US and European indexes.  It just looks like a natural place for support. I could be wrong, but I’ve spent a lot of time working out the scenarios if my time point proved correct…

I’m not thinking conventionally here… I’m using a custom view if you will.

If the markets continue down from here, the bearish move may well be quite sharp, and could snowball into a major correction from here if that is the case.  

My preferred theory is that this is a big wave 3 top in a bull campaign, so I doubt this is a major wave 5 that has terminated.  Sure, if it is, we could expect to see a lot of wide range down days, quite possible, but at this point I favour a brief rally then another test.  If so, the second test will tell us a lot about the trend.


Regards,


Magdoran


----------



## Porper

*Re: PANIC!!!!!*



			
				tech/a said:
			
		

> Moggi.
> 
> Right at this very moment (Next few days) I dont think you can chart or guess corrective patterns (Could be wrong).
> *Think however you can predict crowd behaviour.*
> 
> Going on todays price action few took up the opportunity to buy at lower pricing--it was muted.
> China's lead a little higher may help USA buyers become optimistic and some buying back at these levels.
> If so the same will happen here.
> Until selling pressure is replaced by buying things will remain flat as participants look at everything from other markets to gold,to currency for a lead.
> These will be critical for longterm stability or change in sentiment.
> 
> For me to early to predict anything longerterm ie length and extent of correction,and everything else is on a daily what leads what basis.
> 
> one thing I think is certain.
> 
> VOLATILITY





Certainly going to be volatile.

The way I see it at the moment is like this.

Short term is going to be difficult to trade as you will get stopped out a lot of the time, especially with tight stops.We can only guess where tomorrow might take us in this environment.

Medium term, who knows, but do you think the market has hit an all time high or do you see it testing and breaking the recent high ?

I know what I think, look at the trend over the past few years.

Having said that, if you are positive but feel at risk to a 1000 or more point plunge any day, trade CFD'S with a guaranteed stop.I was quite surprised but IG Markets gave me a guaranteed 10% stop at 4.00 pm today.

Otherwise, as Tech mentioned, trade normally, if you are stopped out, so be it, if there is a buy signal, buy.Don't deviate from your normal plan.


----------



## greggy

*Re: PANIC!!!!!*

I spoke with a number of experienced traders and novices today.  All the novices said that they were going to sell today to get out whilst the experienced ones viewed today as being a healthy correction and a day of opportunity for buying certain stocks that have fallen too much (e.g. WMT at 12c, HCY at 1.5c and KOR at 50c).
It will be interesting to see who's right.  My money is on the experienced ones.  The novices seemed to be reacting on a emotional basis, yet if it wasn't for such a bad day they may well have held on.
DYOR


----------



## Magdoran

*Re: PANIC!!!!!*



			
				goldilocks said:
			
		

> Ouch!   CFD stop loss useless.  Just gets you out at the first price of the day, which in this case was the lowest price.
> 
> Didn't use guaranteed stop loss which can only be set at 5% below prevailing price anyway.
> 
> Need to lick wounds and figure out how to prevent this in future.  Maybe safer to stick to ordinary share trading and away from these CFDs.



Have a read of my comments on CFDs in "The idiots way to options riches" post 12 for some ideas...

Mag


----------



## nomore4s

*Re: PANIC!!!!!*

lol, even little Johnny is in on the act now, telling people not to panic & the economy is still strong.


----------



## merec

*Re: PANIC!!!!!*

Well with a few years of trading(investing) under my belt and remembering that when i started interest rates were 15-18 % and the Bonds and Skases were just starting, a 3% hic-up is pointless.
Just means it's time to go fishing.(literally)


----------



## PureCoco

*Re: PANIC!!!!!*

International Business News BBC - Shanghai down 9% with a 3% retrace at the end of trade.


----------



## Smurf1976

*Re: PANIC!!!!!*

If this does turn into a major fall then that will provide the perfect cover for central banks to do what they do best - inflate.

I've been thinking for quite some time that we'll see some sort of financial "accident" and that will be followed by central banks flooding the world with liquidity once again.

Accident? The US mortgage lenders is on track to qualify for that one but that doesn't mean the stock market can't join in too.


----------



## Freeballinginawetsuit

*Re: PANIC!!!!!*



			
				PureCoco said:
			
		

> International Business News BBC - Shanghai down 9% with a 3% retrace at the end of trade.




Yesterday's news,Todays is nicer on the eye.


----------



## theasxgorilla

*Re: PANIC!!!!!*



			
				PureCoco said:
			
		

> International Business News BBC - Shanghai down 9% with a 3% retrace at the end of trade.




The same market appreciated 120%ish last year...and was up 15% for the year up until the 9% drop.


----------



## Freeballinginawetsuit

*Re: PANIC!!!!!*

If you look at any nations during early industrialisation market appreciation rates are substantial.....dose in china's population to the mix and the rapid availability of commodities in this day and age............and bingo the perfect ingredients for a rocket propelled tin pot index!.

This one has fuel left to burn aplenty, just going to take the analysts a while to get their head around it all, cause the dynamics of such a market they have never seen before.


----------



## tech/a

*Re: PANIC!!!!!*

I *expected* Volume to be very high today but noticed that it was only really moderate.
To me this indicates many held their positions,particularly the bigger holders.

If so 
(1) They will either dump on a decent rally.
OR
(2) Buy when percieved to be bargain basement.(moderately)
AND
(3) Then in the future sell off at better prices without spooking the market.
THEN
(4) When no buying from the big holders and selling into smaller holders overtime---then standing back---Round 2 would be a doosy.


----------



## CanOz

*Re: PANIC!!!!!*



			
				tech/a said:
			
		

> I *expected* Volume to be very high today but noticed that it was only really moderate.
> To me this indicates many held their positions,particularly the bigger holders.
> 
> If so
> (1) They will either dump on a decent rally.
> OR
> (2) Buy when percieved to be bargain basement.(moderately)
> AND
> (3) Then in the future sell off at better prices without spooking the market.
> THEN
> (4) When no buying from the big holders and selling into smaller holders overtime---then standing back---Round 2 would be a doosy.




So T/A, you don't think Friday's volume was a buying climax, allowing the big money an exit?

Cheers,


----------



## wayneL

*Re: PANIC!!!!!*



			
				Magdoran said:
			
		

> You crack me up Count “Pirate Bear”
> 
> 
> “Greedscam” – I fell off my chair with that one!!! (Almost killed my cat too!).



  

Not many get the joke, but there are clues that half of what I write is a complete p1sstake... on myself as well as others.

Glad some find it amusing! hehehe



			
				Magdoran said:
			
		

> The pattern just looks like a lot of stocks will want to recover over the next few days to me.
> 
> I tend to agree, looking at the sharpness of the bar, I would expect the dip buyers to come in seeing “value”, and see a bullish counter trend for 1-4 days with a set of inside days to today’s price bar.  Then we should see a retest of the low, and perhaps a continuation of the bear move.
> 
> We may see a concerted continuation after this to wash out the sellers.  If this is impulsive, suspect support should be short lived, and there will be some wide range bars down, then an “ABC” bullish counter trend, then another leg down… maybe, if this is a wave 3 0f 5 of 5… (wavepicker???).
> 
> Alternatively, this could be an “ABC”, and then continue bullishly right away and retest the current major high (23 Feb).
> 
> We could even see a rally back for a marginal high depending on how the pattern unfolds.
> 
> My current view is for a correction chopping around to 18th July (other key time points are (minor) 14 March, (major) 01 April, 13 April).
> 
> Support levels are difficult to deal with since there are several ways of dealing with this, but I’d see 5560 as key support to this initial move.
> 
> 
> Regards
> 
> 
> Magdoran




Dow futures up 100 at this stage.

Here comes the cavalry! LOL


----------



## Bobby

*Re: PANIC!!!!!*



			
				tech/a said:
			
		

> I *expected* Volume to be very high today but noticed that it was only really moderate.




Well you're right on that Tech, maybe like me, most when trying to contact my online broker most could not get through.

Those stupid big brokers could have set up the gear to handle this!
I wanted to buy.

Also all those dickheads that had set low stops in market must be shi" ing themselves now.

Have Fun
Bob.


----------



## Freeballinginawetsuit

*Re: PANIC!!!!!*

I struggle to get your jokes Wayne....my concern is that many a small punter would have pissed their holdings to the wind this morning rather than sell into an intra day rally (that was on the cards this morning) if that way inclined to dump.

You are obviously a long time poster on this forum and the rabid "crash' postings of last night on this forum no doubt spooked some innocent noobs.  

ASF should at least be a forum to vent all opinions so others can see that not all share the same bearish outlooks as you......at this point in time.


----------



## tech/a

*Re: PANIC!!!!!*

Canaussiuk.

Could be but only a moderate selloff looking at volume.
The really high volume has been more often than not on dips.
The only possible selloffs seem to be December and last week but dont appear to me to be out of the ordinary.
My bet is we will see hidden volume on a LOW in the future tagging renewed interest in the larger buyers.
This will happen on a narrow range bar is my bet.
A rise on LOW volume would be seen as weak.
They will buy into weakness as you know and sell into strength.

If infact they do come back and dont continue to sell inconspicuously into any rally's.

Think there is some good stuff to be aware of in the coming days.


----------



## borat

*Re: PANIC!!!!!*

I'm still new to all this, but I had allot of anxiety up until the middle of yesterdays trading, was tempted to sell the lost but held on after seeing a gradual but steady increase... Was tempted to buy into some (what seemed at the time, bargains ) as I did unload 1/4 of my portfolio (SMM) the other day with a profit and had some spare cash to spare...

But being new and not sure which way things would go, I decided not too jump in and just ride it out what I had left the remainder of my portfolio...

To those that are experienced, you may know how to see it as opportunity and turn a situation like this into a positive outcome, those that don't it could be otherwise...

Allot to learn here about corrections in general, psychology, heard mentality...


----------



## wayneL

*Re: PANIC!!!!!*



			
				Freeballinginawetsuit said:
			
		

> I struggle to get your jokes Wayne....my concern is that many a small punter would have pissed their holdings to the wind this morning rather than sell into an intra day rally (that was on the cards this morning) if that way inclined to dump.
> 
> You are obviously a long time poster on this forum and the rabid "crash' postings of last night on this forum no doubt spooked some innocent noobs.
> 
> ASF should at least be a forum to vent all opinions so others can see that not all share the same bearish outlooks as you......at this point in time.



Freeball,

Your altruism is touching, really!

But if any noobs stupid enough to sell based on the rants of an anomonous(?) poster on the internet are probably the same ones who buy based on the ramps of others huh? It's a two way street yes?

It's amazing how the sense of humour vanishes when self interest is involved.


----------



## tech/a

*Re: PANIC!!!!!*

Wayne--

WHAT you mean thats not really a picture of BORAT,I could be talking to anyone!!

I'm disillusioned!!


----------



## Freeballinginawetsuit

*Re: PANIC!!!!!*

I think it is clear over my time on ASF and our passing buys that 
a) I have never agreed with a thing you have said........let alone follow it. I do however enjoy your posts.
b) I have no interest in affecting any noobs trade, I hope every decision they make turns out the best for them.
c) I have no interest in the market that you could affect whatsoever....get a grip.


Disclaimer: unless I was into low vol stocks and educating the masses.....won't go there.


----------



## Garpal Gumnut

*Re: PANIC!!!!!*



			
				tech/a said:
			
		

> Canaussiuk.
> 
> Could be but only a moderate selloff looking at volume.
> The really high volume has been more often than not on dips.
> The only possible selloffs seem to be December and last week but dont appear to me to be out of the ordinary.
> My bet is we will see hidden volume on a LOW in the future tagging renewed interest in the larger buyers.
> This will happen on a narrow range bar is my bet.
> A rise on LOW volume would be seen as weak.
> They will buy into weakness as you know and sell into strength.
> 
> If infact they do come back and dont continue to sell inconspicuously into any rally's.
> 
> Think there is some good stuff to be aware of in the coming days.




It seems to me on looking at your chart that we have hit the end of an EW 5, longer than the 3, and are now due for an ABC retracement. A 50% retracement on this methodology would bring us to xao of 5500, and interestingly provides support at highs and lows, at that level. The fact that the wave 5 was longer than the three may have discomfited some, but still fits with the rules of EW as wave 3 was longer than wave 1. 

So if this all goes pear shaped in the next few weeks I'd hold my powder until XAO is 5500

Garpal


----------



## borat

*Re: PANIC!!!!!*



			
				tech/a said:
			
		

> Wayne--
> 
> WHAT you mean thats not really a picture of BORAT,I could be talking to anyone!!
> 
> I'm disillusioned!!




And Im lost! That really is a picture of me, so what does it mean?


----------



## CanOz

*Re: PANIC!!!!!*



			
				borat said:
			
		

> And Im lost! That really is a picture of me, so what does it mean?



Its ok Borat, i'm confused too! lol!

I have no idea what they're talking about now!

Cheers,


----------



## LifeisShort

*Re: PANIC!!!!!*

Its times like these that those that aren't geared to the rafters go in and have a field day picking anything they like from the panic stricken sheep. I'm not sure about anyone else but when there are sales on one goes out and shops then.....a sale is on right now.....I think there might be more weakening so I'm waiting a little longer before i get my shopping bags out and buy those red dot specials that seem to come around once a year


----------



## wayneL

*Re: PANIC!!!!!*



			
				Freeballinginawetsuit said:
			
		

> I think it is clear over my time on ASF and our passing buys that
> a) I have never agreed with a thing you have said........let alone follow it. I do however enjoy your posts.
> Don't care who agrees or disagrees, I just enjoy the cut and thrust of debate
> b) I have no interest in affecting any noobs trade, I hope every decision they make turns out the best for them.
> Ditto, I have never suggested any one buy or sell anything, I discuss commentary, strategies, options, hedging etc. I am satisfied that I have added a great deal of value to this forum through discussion of futures and option strategies
> c) I have no interest in the market that you could affect whatsoever....get a grip.
> LOL The only market I could affect, I would have no interest in trading. I am flea on an elephant, so where did you get that idea from. Absurd!
> 
> 
> Disclaimer: unless I was into low vol stocks and educating the masses.....won't go there.




Freeball,

You have gotten your knickers in a knot. You must have had your @rse handed to you.

dittums


----------



## wayneL

*Re: PANIC!!!!!*



			
				CanOz said:
			
		

> Its ok Borat, i'm confused too! lol!
> 
> I have no idea what they're talking about now!
> 
> Cheers,




Me too!

????


----------



## CanOz

*Re: PANIC!!!!!*



			
				LifeisShort said:
			
		

> so I'm waiting a little longer before i get my shopping bags out and buy those red dot specials that seem to come around once a year




Me too. Good idea.

Cheers,


----------



## Kauri

*Re: PANIC!!!!!*



			
				LifeisShort said:
			
		

> Its times like these that those that aren't geared to the rafters go in and have a field day picking anything they like from the panic stricken sheep. I'm not sure about anyone else but when there are sales on one goes out and shops then.....a sale is on right now.....I think there might be more weakening so I'm waiting a little longer before i get my shopping bags out and buy those red dot specials that seem to come around once a year




  This might be the pre-holiday sale...I think I will wait and see if the post-holiday sale is better.


----------



## Bobby

*Re: PANIC!!!!!*



			
				Garpal Gumnut said:
			
		

> It seems to me on looking at your chart that we have hit the end of an EW 5, longer than the 3, and are now due for an ABC retracement. A 50% retracement on this methodology would bring us to xao of 5500, and interestingly provides support at highs and lows, at that level. The fact that the wave 5 was longer than the three may have discomfited some, but still fits with the rules of EW as wave 3 was longer than wave 1.
> 
> 
> 
> Garpal



Yes I can see your point on this,     but it all depends on the angle of the dangle.
Which will depend on the heat of the meat for accurate EW count   

Bob.


----------



## CanOz

*Re: PANIC!!!!!*



			
				wayneL said:
			
		

> Freeball,
> 
> You have gotten your knickers in a knot. You must have had your @rse handed to you.
> 
> dittums




 :iagree:


----------



## Freeballinginawetsuit

*Re: PANIC!!!!!*

I will be keeping my **** well away from you Wayne


----------



## borat

*Re: PANIC!!!!!*



			
				LifeisShort said:
			
		

> I think there might be more weakening so I'm waiting a little longer before i get my shopping bags out and buy those red dot specials that seem to come around once a year




I agree as well, it think I'm going to wait until the at least the choppiness had settled a bit, people are going to be sensitive and irrational for a little while I think... 

Don't know if its a fair comparison, but this is what happened in may last year... I snapped up specials after the initial panic and got some good gains, only to then loose them when the bargains got even cheaper... though, my mentality went into 'panic' and I dumped the lot! Doh!


----------



## Garpal Gumnut

*Re: PANIC!!!!!*



			
				Bobby said:
			
		

> Yes I can see your point on this,     but it all depends on the angle of the dangle.
> Which will depend on the heat of the meat for accurate EW count
> 
> Bob.




Agree not totally, but somewhat.,

If in doubt trust to chaos theory, but always keep a stop loss and let your profits run, and ... watch the angle of the dangle.

Garpal


----------



## lesm

*Re: PANIC!!!!!*

Did someone ay womething about waiting for the choppiness settles before buying in. It is interesting reading some of the analysts reports of what they think may be ahead.

The quote and reference below, appeared on ET today.

“Domestic stocks were extremely overbought and even mildly bad news could trigger a meaningful shakeout,” said analysts at BCA Research in Montreal in a note. They “would not be surprised” to see a 20 to 30-per-cent drop before the market stabilizes.

http://www.theglobeandmail.com/serv...ness/columnists

Watching the unfolding of the realisation of the potential effects of the Yen Carry Trade could be interesting as well.


----------



## Julia

*Re: PANIC!!!!!*

To respond to Tech's original question, I've done nothing today.  I had one order in the market for a buy at a price which I thought fairly ridiculous and unlikely to go through but which did of course trigger.

In a SMSF can't short and am entirely happy to hold throughout the correction.  All corrections in the past have gone on to record new highs.

This event today is where I just don't understand why those of you who have stop losses automatically triggered (if they are in solid companies with good fundamentals) , only to buy them back when you are sure they are once again trending up, do this, given that you are complicating your tax situation and costing yourself extra brokerage.  This query doesn't apply to the penny stocks obviously.

The following extracts offer somewhat of a sense of proportion on the day's events: 



> China's stock market is very very volatile market. It’s had huge increases. It was due for a correction. It’s certainly true that there’s anxiety about US pressure for further renminbi appreciation, but we’ve seen that despite the appreciation over the last eighteen months Chinese exports have done very well. A further appreciation will not be difficult for China. It’s not going to bring about a collapse. There is no threat to continued firm output growth in China. As for the US share price fall, it coincides with quite good housing sales numbers and higher consumer confidence, so again I think it's a correction rather than a fundamental reversal. The Australian market is also correcting, which, given the accelerating gains of recent weeks, is no bad thing. -- John Edwards, Chief Economist HSBC Australia and New Zealand
> 
> What's really interesting about this is that ten years ago nobody would have cared if the Shanghai market fell. To that extent, it's very very important. Maybe this is the way it's going to be. At one time it would have been Wall Street or Japan. Now it's Shanghai. As for the Australian impact, our market has risen by around 10% since early January and we had been anticipating a pullback. Last year that happened in May. This year it's much earlier. This morning, there are some sharp falls, up to 5% for BHP, for example. We expect that in the next month or so that the market could come back by around 10%. Right now, the biggest online brokerage in Australia, CommSec, is jammed, which goes to show just how many people are affected here. Standing back a bit – and this is important – the property market will now start looking more attractive to many people. We already know that rents are going up... this will push rents even higher. -- James Kirby, editor of The Eureka Report
> 
> This is a reminder of the growing importance of China to the international financial system. Certainly the Chinese authorities have been moving to quell the growing bubble in the sharemarket, a concern that is in part borne out of the risks associated with the bubble bursting and the widening division between the rich and poor. There will be a significant echo in the Australian market, but that should correct itself when people realise this doesn’t mean anything about the health of the Chinese economy and won’t affect China's demand for commodities. -- Saul Eslake, ANZ Chief Economist
> 
> This has really been a technical correction caused by the government introducing measures for improving the sharemarket in China. People need to understand how underdeveloped that market is and how much further the prudential regulations have to go for that market to function properly. In the medium to long term this will benefit the functioning of the Chinese market by improving access for retails investors, whose presence has a stabilizing effect in the market. It will have a short term affect on the Australian market. The mining companies might suffer in the short term, but whatever value they lose will be returned when people realise it doesn’t reflect a weakening of the Chinese economy. -- Amy Austin, Head of International Economics and China expert at ANZ
> 
> There’s a classic knee-jerk reaction here – the US is off so we’re off too. The US market had strong start to the year, but its last major correction was in May-June last year, so its market was overdue for a fall. To put it in context for China, their sharemarket grew by 120% last year, and this is a 9% fall. Meanwhile, our market has risen 10% in eight weeks – those are huge gains in a short time. I don’t see it as a start of a bear market. It could certainly go on for a few days or weeks, but the fundamentals are good. In Paul Keating’s words, this is the correction we had to have. -- Shane Oliver, Head of Investment Strategy and Chief Economist at AMP.




Julia


----------



## 2020hindsight

*Re: PANIC!!!!!*

all I know is when in doubt do naut - and today I just watched the bright lights flashing past - maybe tomorrow is the day to buy? or sell? lol. confusion reigns supreme.


----------



## nizar

*Re: PANIC!!!!!*



			
				tech/a said:
			
		

> I *expected* Volume to be very high today but noticed that it was only really moderate.
> To me this indicates many held their positions,particularly the bigger holders.
> 
> If so
> (1) They will either dump on a decent rally.
> OR
> (2) Buy when percieved to be bargain basement.(moderately)
> AND
> (3) Then in the future sell off at better prices without spooking the market.
> THEN
> (4) When no buying from the big holders and selling into smaller holders overtime---then standing back---Round 2 would be a doosy.




How about (5) They think its only a once-off one-day correction so its much better to hold, but if 2mrws down again then its all over and thats when we get the big dump? Theres alot of anticipation on what america will do 2nite.


----------



## Bobby

*Re: PANIC!!!!!*



			
				Garpal Gumnut said:
			
		

> Agree not totally, but somewhat.,
> 
> If in doubt trust to chaos theory, but always keep a stop loss and let your profits run, and ... watch the angle of the dangle.
> 
> Garpal



Greetings Garpal,

Most stop loss triggers would have been hit today, snow balling etc etc....

Also the frustration of stops that suffer gaps past their trigger that don't!
Wankers place these thinking they will be protected.
Angle of the dangle players   

Bob.


----------



## insider

*Re: PANIC!!!!!*



			
				borat said:
			
		

> And Im lost! That really is a picture of me, so what does it mean?



Yageshemash Gypsy? Is been long time... I haven't seen you since the running of the jew... My other wife, no not my sister, make a beautiful cheese from her chest. You should taste... Very nice... Give me your Gypsy tears or I will take them from you... Jenqui!


----------



## Kauri

*Re: PANIC!!!!!*

Having read a lot of the posts about the correction it would seem that the forum is equally divided between this being the start of a serious decline and a good buying oppurtunity, discounting of course the "indecisive 2 bob each way" ones. Wonder if this is indicative of the general feeling everywhere.


----------



## theasxgorilla

*Re: PANIC!!!!!*

My research suggests that there hasn't been a single day loss at the _beginning_ of a correction to this extent (2.7%) since the beginning of the bull run back in March '03.  The previous contender was Oct '05 with 2.1%.  The average across the 4 significant pullbacks that we've had was about 1.6%.

So the extent of the single day loss today tends to set this correction apart from the others, so far.


----------



## Kauri

*Re: PANIC!!!!!*



			
				theasxgorilla said:
			
		

> My research suggests that there hasn't been a single day loss at the _beginning_ of a correction to this extent (2.7%) since the beginning of the bull run back in March '03. The previous contender was Oct '05 with 2.1%. The average across the 4 significant pullbacks that we've had was about 1.6%.
> 
> So the extent of the single day loss today tends to set this correction apart from the others, so far.



  Isn't this the second day?


----------



## theasxgorilla

*Re: PANIC!!!!!*



			
				Kauri said:
			
		

> Isn't this the second day?




I'm not sure what you mean...technically its the third day since the all-time-high on Friday...but I'm not talking about the _first day_, I'm refering the first signficant "single day loss" of each correction that we have had.  If you look at the way the previous corrections have played out you will see that we don't just reach a peak then lose 3% the next day.


----------



## Magdoran

*Re: PANIC!!!!!*



			
				theasxgorilla said:
			
		

> I'm not sure what you mean...technically its the third day since the all-time-high on Friday...but I'm not talking about the _first day_, I'm refering the first signficant "single day loss" of each correction that we have had.  If you look at the way the previous corrections have played out you will see that we don't just reach a peak then lose 3% the next day.




This is an interesting point.  This is a classic EW ending diagonal pattern, which is not common in indexes (in fact I can’t remember seeing one for an index before – anyone seen one???).  This kind of move tends to be sharp and deep, but is usually not a crash like in ’87.  

If you look at the 87 pattern, this gave a false break at the top, and moved down for a couple of days with one moderate wide range day, then counter trended for a few days with very small range days, then gently moved down over a couple of weeks before a break down happened.  Even then there was a McLaren $$$ gift rally before the big moves started, then the major day down came after this pattern.

This current price action is unlike any of the crashes I’ve studied.  I have never seen a crash play out like this.  However that doesn’t mean that it can’t, just that there doesn’t seem to be a precedent that I can find that matches this pattern for indices.

I suspect that this could be a bear campaign into the 18th July if we get impulsive price action, and not corrective.  I tend to favour the impulsive price action scenario currently, but will have to revisit this 18 days from the Feb 23 high.

This just doesn’t look like a crash scenario.  I think this is a major wave 3 that came in, and we should see a move to a choppy wave 4 for quite some time…  But I could be wrong if we get a quick “BC”.


Mag


----------



## It's Snake Pliskin

*Re: PANIC!!!!!*

I added one position to my investment portfolio today.


----------



## Bobby

*Re: PANIC!!!!!*

*All analysis now seems crap.* 

Who knew?

What really sh'ts me off is that my broker was not up to online trades.

You grubs cost me, & thats not the end of this   

Bob.


----------



## It's Snake Pliskin

*Re: PANIC!!!!!*



			
				Bobby said:
			
		

> *All analysis now seems crap.*
> 
> Who knew?
> 
> What really sh'ts me off is that my broker was not up to online trades.
> 
> You grubs cost me, & thats not the end of this
> 
> Bob.




Yes Bobby some brokers seem to fail the test. 
Who are the grubs that cost you just out of interest? (I haven't read all of the thread)


----------



## Bobby

*Re: PANIC!!!!!*



			
				It's Snake Pliskin said:
			
		

> Yes Bobby some brokers seem to fail the test.
> Who are the grubs that cost you just out of interest? (I haven't read all of the thread)



Hi Snake,

Commsuck !!  

Cheers Bob


----------



## It's Snake Pliskin

*Re: PANIC!!!!!*



			
				Bobby said:
			
		

> Hi Snake,
> 
> Commsuck !!
> 
> Cheers Bob




Gotcha Bob.

Take care.
Snake


----------



## Bobby

*Re: PANIC!!!!!*



			
				It's Snake Pliskin said:
			
		

> Gotcha Bob.
> 
> Take care.
> Snake




Thanks mate good night.


----------



## It's Snake Pliskin

*Re: PANIC!!!!!*



			
				Bobby said:
			
		

> Thanks mate good night.



Good night and sleep tight. :bekloppt:


----------



## wayneL

*Re: PANIC!!!!!*

It's a bit quieter in here tonight.


----------



## wayneL

*Re: PANIC!!!!!*



			
				Freeballinginawetsuit said:
			
		

> I will be holding my long positions... its all relative with those  .
> 
> With my trading funds it will be the same as usual......Today may hit my bottom line 10 odd percent......so what. Every chance a bit of carnage may present some opportunities that might not have been their previously.
> 
> *Personally Last night was an eye opener for me on this forum, not hard to read between the lines.......quite obviously some crew have been burnt/frustrated at others gains and out it all came. Plenty of them in the world *



Wow! Just spotted this little beauty Freebie.

I'd like you to go and read last nights posts in the charting the crash thread. Take note of who initiated any frustrated/ad hominem posts. I can tell you it wasn't any of us trading it. We were just having a discussion/running commentry on an historic move in the markets.

Take a look in the mirror son, then give yourself an uppercut.


----------



## Freeballinginawetsuit

*Re: PANIC!!!!!*

Wayne, give it a rest........at the risk of this blimp of 'history making event' vanishing and youre ravings of last night leaving you having to vent more dribble for yet another year.

An upercut would be be well directed in youre direction......but alas youre moving from youre rental it seems......happy travels , and on youre way pop into sorrento for a beer, I'm sure youre not flying out from Gero's tinpot airport!.

In reference to youre post last night I simply informed you that you were out again with youre whip of negativity  ....predictable for you and which yet again fizzed out today.

Happy to always present a poz spin on ASF in regard to the market.....in every single post


----------



## It's Snake Pliskin

*Re: PANIC!!!!!*

In defence of Wayne L he talks sense, most don't.


----------



## wayneL

*Re: PANIC!!!!!*



			
				Freeballinginawetsuit said:
			
		

> Wayne, give it a rest........at the risk of this blimp of 'history making event' vanishing and youre ravings of last night leaving you having to vent more dribble for yet another year.
> 
> An upercut would be be well directed in youre direction......but alas youre moving from youre rental it seems......happy travels




The history making event has been printed, profit banked, it can't vanish.  

If you intended to make some sort of class statement by the rental quip... well I've still got the yardstick handy... and you will be surprised and humiliated, trust me


----------



## Freeballinginawetsuit

*Re: PANIC!!!!!*

Don't forget that beer Wayne  and Im glad you made a profit last night the point was not much happend back at home in Oz......as yet


----------



## wayneL

*Re: PANIC!!!!!*

Freeball

You use a lot of smilies for someone who is so frightened by last nights move that you are prompted to shoot the messenger.


----------



## wayneL

*Re: PANIC!!!!!*


----------



## rederob

*Re: PANIC!!!!!*

Was there panic?
I missed it, aparently.
Bought more PDN yesterday - seemed like a bargain basement sale was being rolled out, and one should try to take the occasional bite into cheaper yellow cake when it is offered.
I really can't see how large portfolio gains are "claimed" when so many keep buying into record stock market prices.
Each to their own, I guess.
He smiles, and trundles off to earn another day's wages.


----------



## UMike

*Re: PANIC!!!!!*

Not so much Panicking today. Dow up 69 pts ATM


----------



## Freeballinginawetsuit

*Re: PANIC!!!!!*

That's not much of a bounce. Momentum could shift down again, if no buyers> this ones going to bump further after tinkering for a few days. Too much room to cut some further slack.......


----------



## 2020hindsight

*Re: PANIC!!!!!*

reminds me of trying to pick the winner of Bradburys ice skating race


----------



## wavepicker

*Re: PANIC!!!!!*

That was a pathetic rally IMO.  Correction looks to be in it's infancy.
Looks like we won't get a sustainable counter for 1.5-2 weeks.

The one larger trend is down, the trend is not at risk of ending,therefore stay with the trend.

Cheers


----------



## Freeballinginawetsuit

*Re: PANIC!!!!!*

LOL, the finishing lines insight...US may stumble but its about time we did a Bradbury and separated from the frontrunners.


----------



## 2020hindsight

*Re: PANIC!!!!!*

freeball, I've already hung up one skate - (about 50% portfolio still in there) - might hang up the other one for a bit if I get the chance, have a cup of coffee -  I have this feeling that Bradburys are pretty rare events  

need more courage and more backing funds ( less consequences of a wipeout) than I have to ride this one  
possibility of losing 10% short-term - high imho
possibility of making 10% short-term - low imho


----------



## wayneL

*Re: PANIC!!!!!*

I'm seeing some pretty strong inverse correlation between the yen and the US indicies over the last 3 months... obviously because of the implications of the carry trade.

The US indicies put in a stalling day (spinning top in candle parlance) and the Yen has done likewise.

Just a heads up, could be an idea to keep an eye on the yen/BOJ etc.

NB: The stalling being relative to yesterdays range and the new volatility.


----------



## Freeballinginawetsuit

*Re: PANIC!!!!!*

20,

No intention of selling anything out of my Investments ATM, quite happy to spill some milk out of that one at the appropriate time.....irrelevant really.

Trading funds wise I'll just trade whats in front of me.....if it all goes sour I'd be quite happy to pick up some value and kick back for a while and take a spell.

It would take a lot more than the last 2 days too change my opinion on whats driving the Aust market....All Ords back at 4800 might push my button.


----------



## Atomic5

*Re: PANIC!!!!!*



			
				OK2 said:
			
		

> Ok, now I really don't get it!!! I come home from work and what has taken me 9 months to recover from the last so called correction is gone in a day and no one has quoted "a sea of red" or "blood on the floor". You guys not going soft on me are you? (starting to feel a little like Wile E Coyote chasing the Roadrunner in the cartoons, just as I catch up CRASH!!!)




Ditto: I was holding the first real profit I had seen since losses last May - suddenly my $ gone again! 

Now after the bloodbath, the USA is making out as though theres no recession ... woo hooo what a party. Analysts today are saying this was not a China based scare but a false US economy scare. Even Bernanke today: no housing crisis, no 'durables' data problem and no _inflation_.... ?????. In fact the US economy is going really well....! Let's rally.

Bernanke's so positive some say he's lying. And he doesn't want to put blame to Greenspans comments as the only trigger, ....... ? no? Nothing to the recession comment then???? Oh ok no problem. Just another senseless powerplay. 

Next time Greenspan, if you want media attention, try claiming you're the father of Anna Nocole Smiths baby instead   





MHO - Please DYOR


----------



## Little1

*Re: PANIC!!!!!*

With apologies to Rudyard Kipling: 

"If you are able to keep your head when all around are losing theirs, then perhaps you don't have a full grasp of the situation".

I bought into stocks I had been watching for some time.

Got wiped out with MBL as my cfd stops got executed and picked up the loss on PDN cfd's. Should have watched the dead cat syndrome more closely but brought my trailing stop up to cover the MBL loss. 

Came out square and owning some cheap PDN shares. New stop in place with a win loss ratio of 3 to 1. 

Thanks to Nick Radge for good advice on protecting profits and to Tech/A for pointing me in the right direction.


----------



## Dr Doom

*Re: PANIC!!!!!*

I think the figures speak for themselves, it's only just the beginning of the worldwide recession.


----------



## Freeballinginawetsuit

*Re: PANIC!!!!!*

Well the Dow closed 53 points down, double the avg Vol with advancers considerably on top. Last couple of hours volumes were encouraging. Pretty much the same dynamics as our market yesterday. Still a shabby bounce though.


----------



## Atomic5

*Re: PANIC!!!!!*

The EU countries are doused in Red today and no-one seems to believe Wall Street. The mining giants are down 4-5% _again._ 

Dr Doom I think you're right. But what's going on? Why is the US covering up? 
Has Bernanke been paid off to shut his inflation pedling mouth?


MHO - Please DYOR


----------



## Dr Doom

*Re: PANIC!!!!!*

Atomic5, I'm not sure it matters what Bernanke says anymore, the markets will adjust irrespective to what is said by the controllers of the world currency. The signs have been there for over a year now that there is structural & fundamental problems with the US economy, only everyone has turned a blind eye eg 'deficits dont matter anymore'

Have a look at this site for an amusing insight into deficits

http://web2.airmail.net/scsr/

Frankly I think they have lost control and wouldn't have a clue on how to deal with it now the contagion has started.


----------



## CanOz

*Re: PANIC!!!!!*



			
				Freeballinginawetsuit said:
			
		

> Well the Dow closed 53 points down, double the avg Vol with advancers considerably on top. Last couple of hours volumes were encouraging. Pretty much the same dynamics as our market yesterday. Still a shabby bounce though.




FreeBee, did you mean the DOW closed up?

Cheers,


----------



## Freeballinginawetsuit

*Re: PANIC!!!!!*

Yep


----------



## CanOz

*Re: PANIC!!!!!*



			
				Freeballinginawetsuit said:
			
		

> Yep




Hmmm, thought so, but i just woke up so i wasn't sure what was going on.

Cheers,


----------



## nizar

*Re: PANIC!!!!!*

THe corrections all over??


----------



## petervan

*Re: PANIC!!!!!*

The correction is over for now but are we going to see a volatile Chinese market zig zagging up and down. What if Israel hits Irans nuclear failities? Then i think we will see a major correction followed by recession.Still make hay while the sun shines.


----------



## theasxgorilla

*Re: PANIC!!!!!*



			
				rederob said:
			
		

> I really can't see how large portfolio gains are "claimed" when so many keep buying into record stock market prices.




IMO people continue to be able to "claim" gains for two reasons...

1. In many markets the traditional notions of a reasonable price for an asset relative to value, yield and risk have detached from their morings a long time ago...you only need to buy and sell with a price delta to make a gain.  Value, yield and risk are secondary considerations.

2. People trade derivatives and sometimes they don't need a price move (or MUCH of a price move), or a dividend etc. to actually make money.

The ASX Gorilla.


----------



## Sean K

*Re: PANIC!!!!!*

Yesterday wasn't a correction, it was just a blip. another 5% drop and we'll have a proper correction. If the market takes back all the losses immediately, we'll be straight back where we were a few days ago. Overbought.


----------



## tech/a

*Re: PANIC!!!!!*

30 mins into today and out come the calls.

Theres more emotion here than a funeral!

Think!!!---Whats the market telling you---its over???


----------



## theasxgorilla

*Re: PANIC!!!!!*



			
				tech/a said:
			
		

> 30 mins into today and out come the calls.
> 
> Theres more emotion here than a funeral!
> 
> Think!!!---Whats the market telling you---its over???




It tells me to at least wait until 11:30am, before starting to think anything...this should be more than an ample amount of time for all the orders to be processed that originated overnight from people who couldn't get onto their online brokers during the day y'day.


----------



## KIWIKARLOS

*Re: PANIC!!!!!*

So much for a crash, plenty of people made tidy profits from this panic selling. To all those people who were chanting and predicting recessions, crashes and global famine you might have to wait a while for the apocalypse  :  : 

In saying that though I reakon we still have good prospects for the next 6 months will increasing volitility and a chance for big probs in the end of year.


----------



## Freeballinginawetsuit

*Re: PANIC!!!!!*

At the moment I would say the same as yesterday! and that most would be taking the gains short. But it is anyones perogative to trade as they see fit T/A last thing ASF needs is another tall poppy chopper!.

Quite happy to own up to a call on MRE.....logical buy yesterday off depth on the spike with an announcement due out that day on a humper report (lol that never came out)......and today's proved right.

Volumes are low Today and thats of concern....


----------



## ducati916

*Re: PANIC!!!!!*

Market crashes or corrections do not happen in a single day.
Look at the April bar in 2000, the *Bear market* made a new high from March.

Sentiment & confidence however are easily broken.
You will have a % of participants withdraw from the market based on yesterdays shenanigans, that is a little less buying power flowing into Mutual funds, any redemptions further forces equity managers into selling, as they cannot hold assets as cash.

Bear markets, corrections are notorious for sneaking up on you from behind.
Already I've seen numerous references to *the fundamentals* haven't changed.

The fundamentals of the vast majority of stocks currently are horrible. Overvalued, and screaming sell.

The US having recently experienced a bear market are very wary of another.
The housing market is bad and getting worse.
The credit cycle if not turned, is very close to turning, and then you will have a US recession with all the implications and ramifications that will entail.

But check out the chart;


----------



## tech/a

*Re: PANIC!!!!!*

Agree DUCSTER.

While we are posting charts here is a 6 min.of the last 2 days.
Notice anything?

There is a long consolidation here.
The longer the consolidation the more explosive the move.
This is a short term chart so the move---when it comes will only be short!

Funny that.


----------



## tech/a

*Re: PANIC!!!!!*

Still watching?
Whats it saying???


----------



## Atomic5

*Re: PANIC!!!!!*

I have a horrible gut feeling that if I buy now amidst all this denial-euphoria I am going to end up holding crashing stock in a real surprise-surprise data-supported recession that not even the USA can 'deny', only to double the losses I suffered yesterday.   

IHMO - Please DYOR

Thanks to everyone posting the charts and the data. I had started to think these forums were just for cowboys and rampers.


----------



## carmo

*Re: PANIC!!!!!*

When I got home yesterday, about midday I as 6K down, at close 2.7K down, now its 0.9K down, certainly pays not to panic.


----------



## tech/a

*Re: PANIC!!!!!*

Whats it saying???


----------



## theasxgorilla

*Re: PANIC!!!!!*

It's saying the index hit resistance at the top of the range and headed lower and price has broken to the downside of the trendline (or upward sloping wedge pattern) that formed.

Micro-trend direction, down.


----------



## Garpal Gumnut

*Re: PANIC!!!!!*



			
				Bobby said:
			
		

> Greetings Garpal,
> 
> Most stop loss triggers would have been hit today, snow balling etc etc....
> 
> Also the frustration of stops that suffer gaps past their trigger that don't!
> Wankers place these thinking they will be protected.
> Angle of the dangle players
> 
> Bob.




Agree Bob,

Thats why I'm a long term "investor" although I still see myself as a chartist and trader. 

I only found out about Shanghai Squirts at 11.30 am yesterday.

I took 200k purely for techs into tech boom and exited with 200k, more through luck than skill.

Our Broking Houses, Trading Platforms are not sophisticated enough to day trade with any confidence unless you are in a wave 3 EW. 

During 87 crash I kept pressing redial on my phone to Commsec or one of its predessors TDW or Rivkin , it took 4 hours to get through and I bought a heap of BHP at a ridiculously low price which I still hold.

I was thinking before yesterday of trying CFD's but will await the experience of our fellow posters before dipping in there.

Trust your portfolio is intact. Mine are down about 4%, but not much different from 1 month ago.

Garpal


----------



## noirua

*Re: PANIC!!!!!*

Just a correction?  http://www.theage.com.au/news/busin...st-a-correction/2007/02/28/1172338708942.html


----------



## Freeballinginawetsuit

*Re: PANIC!!!!!*

Momentum has dropped off from the AM peak and now stalled, most stocks are getting soaked in a tight range, things could turn on a dime.......and everyone is having some Lunch.


----------



## Kauri

*Re: PANIC!!!!!*

Accumulation, distribution, or indecision???


----------



## tech/a

*Re: PANIC!!!!!*

Whats it saying???

*SUPPLY*


----------



## powerkoala

*Re: PANIC!!!!!*

is this just "dead cat bounce" ?
nikkei down another 200 point
sse180 also down another 3%
any opinion guys ?


----------



## Garpal Gumnut

*Re: PANIC!!!!!*



			
				tech/a said:
			
		

> Whats it saying???
> 
> *SUPPLY*




Or

*DISTRIBUTION*


----------



## tech/a

*Re: PANIC!!!!!*

Or??

Same thing.



> any opinion guys ?




Been making it all morning.

Whats it saying??


----------



## Sean K

*Re: PANIC!!!!!*



			
				tech/a said:
			
		

> Or??
> 
> Same thing.



Supply is holding something, transport is moving it, distribution is the combination. Semantics.


----------



## Garpal Gumnut

*Re: PANIC!!!!!*



			
				tech/a said:
			
		

> Or??
> 
> Same thing.
> 
> 
> 
> Been making it all morning.
> 
> Whats it saying??




Agree, its early days yet.

Garpal


----------



## Atomic5

*Re: PANIC!!!!!*

They've all stopped laughing on Bloomberg. Im gathering by their faces that it's not good right now.


----------



## greggy

*Re: PANIC!!!!!*



			
				Atomic5 said:
			
		

> They've all stopped laughing on Bloomberg. Im gathering by their faces that it's not good right now.



With the Nikkei down nearly 200 points and our market down just under 10 points, there is hardly any need to panic.  Some in the media were prediciting heavy falls today, but sanity prevailed.
DYOR


----------



## Dukey

*Re: PANIC!!!!!*



			
				tech/a said:
			
		

> Or??
> 
> Same thing.
> 
> Been making it all morning.
> 
> Whats it saying??




Tech - I dont profess to be a chartists a-hole - but I`ll have a go.. to me it looks bad from that chart. Tested resistance many times and failed - broke down through support instead....
I say down from here. How far - I wish I knew????????


Gotta go teach some grommets!!!


----------



## Atomic5

*Re: PANIC!!!!!*



			
				greggy said:
			
		

> With the Nikkei down nearly 200 points and our market down just under 10 points, there is hardly any need to panic.  Some in the media were prediciting heavy falls today, but sanity prevailed.
> DYOR




Sanity? Freakin' EU & Asian bloodbath while the Americans party? "ooops, did we say something? _Our_ economy?" 

If they keep this up they will soon be seeing missiles whistling over their fake blue sky and that will be _before _ their $ tanks and drags us all back to the stoneage. 

Just my hostile but Humble Opinion - Avoid heavy medicine.


----------



## greggy

*Re: PANIC!!!!!*



			
				Atomic5 said:
			
		

> Sanity? Freakin' EU & Asian bloodbath while the Americans party? "ooops, did we say something? _Our_ economy?"
> 
> If they keep this up they will soon be seeing missiles whistling over their fake blue sky and that will be _before _ their $ tanks and drags us all back to the stoneage.
> 
> Just my hostile but Humble Opinion - Avoid heavy medicine.



I started trading back in '79 and I've seen worse falls than this.  One just needs to hold on to their nerves.  Keep emotion out of it.  Thanks for the humour.


----------



## Atomic5

*Re: PANIC!!!!!*

That's idealistic but it's not reality. From OZ it may not look that political, but maybe step into Germany, or France or ... Iran .... 

Everyone is saying the US is lying in that "there is no real problem"   Maybe you're just not hearing over there.

MHO - Please DYOR.


----------



## greggy

*Re: PANIC!!!!!*



			
				Atomic5 said:
			
		

> That's idealistic but it's not reality. From OZ it may not look that political, but maybe step into Germany, or France or ... Iran ....
> 
> Everyone is saying the US is lying in that "there is no real problem"   Maybe you're just not hearing over there.
> 
> MHO - Please DYOR.



I'm not getting your thread.  I'm referring to the market.  Just a little bit confused.


----------



## Atomic5

*Re: PANIC!!!!!*

The ASX follows the US market like everyone else.
If IT tanks, the ASX will tank. 
The US is saying there's no need to panic (happy happy joy time).... but the data says otherwise. 
This tends to irritate other nations whose markets are tanking and who then want to throw bombs at the US or sell off $US dollars and deal instead in ruples or beans. 

One way or another we may be in trouble.   

MHO - I sound drunk but Im not.


----------



## greggy

*Re: PANIC!!!!!*



			
				Atomic5 said:
			
		

> The ASX follows the US market like everyone else.
> If IT tanks, the ASX will tank.
> The US is saying there's no need to panic (happy happy joy time).... but the data says otherwise.
> This tends to irritate other nations whose markets are tanking and who then want to throw bombs at the US or sell off $US dollars and deal instead in ruples or beans.
> 
> One way or another we may be in trouble.
> 
> MHO - I sound drunk but Im not.



Hi Atomic5,
Thanks for the explanation.  At worst this will be a correction and I still feel that our market will see new highs before the end of 07.  Put me down as an optimist  after 28 yrs trading exp.  
You seem a little bit stressed. I hope you didn't overextend yourself. 
Other than Celebrex for my back pain I'm not taking any other medication.
DYOR


----------



## theasxgorilla

*Re: PANIC!!!!!*



			
				Atomic5 said:
			
		

> That's idealistic but it's not reality. From OZ it may not look that political, but maybe step into Germany, or France or ... Iran ....
> 
> Everyone is saying the US is lying in that "there is no real problem"   Maybe you're just not hearing over there.
> 
> MHO - Please DYOR.




So where are you from then Atomic?


----------



## rederob

*Re: PANIC!!!!!*



			
				ducati916 said:
			
		

> Market crashes or corrections do not happen in a single day.
> Look at the April bar in 2000, the *Bear market* made a new high from March.
> 
> Sentiment & confidence however are easily broken.
> You will have a % of participants withdraw from the market based on yesterdays shenanigans, that is a little less buying power flowing into Mutual funds, any redemptions further forces equity managers into selling, as they cannot hold assets as cash.
> 
> Bear markets, corrections are notorious for sneaking up on you from behind.
> Already I've seen numerous references to *the fundamentals* haven't changed.
> 
> *The fundamentals of the vast majority of stocks currently are horrible. Overvalued, and screaming sell.*



I emboldened the "fundamentals" quote.
I spent some time last night going over the eps of the equities I hold (that have had actual earnings).
80% of my shares trade at an eps below 15 times.
Several, like MRE, trade in the single digit eps.
I hold 36 different equities.
The majority of my equities are commodity-based, and should be dog**** if we are heading down the gurgler.
Oddly enough, I recall the carnage of last May, and did yesterday and today what I did then - added to existing holdings.
And I still have quite a bit saved up for next week's bargain basement sale, should it be so declared.

China coughs and the rest of the world catches a cold!
Confucius said.


----------



## greggy

*Re: PANIC!!!!!*



			
				rederob said:
			
		

> I emboldened the "fundamentals" quote.
> I spent some time last night going over the eps of the equities I hold (that have had actual earnings).
> 80% of my shares trade at an eps below 15 times.
> Several, like MRE, trade in the single digit eps.
> I hold 36 different equities.
> The majority of my equities are commodity-based, and should be dog**** if we are heading down the gurgler.
> Oddly enough, I recall the carnage of last May, and did yesterday and today what I did then - added to existing holdings.
> And I still have quite a bit saved up for next week's bargain basement sale, should it be so declared.
> 
> China coughs and the rest of the world catches a cold!
> Confucius said.



In the midst of last year's panic I sold my WMT at around 2c (a fixed stop loss of 15%), the only stock I sold. Look at it today (high teens).  Don't panic if you do your research and find some overlooked gems. Forget the noise!!
DYOR


----------



## ducati916

*Re: PANIC!!!!!*

*rederob*

Sure they have low P/E's they are commodity cyclicals.
Buying them at the dangerous end of the cycle.

jog on
d998


----------



## Atomic5

*Re: PANIC!!!!!*

Gorilla - Im Australian but I dont live there anymore.


----------



## theasxgorilla

*Re: PANIC!!!!!*



			
				Atomic5 said:
			
		

> Gorilla - Im Australian but I dont live there anymore.




Your leftist, anti-American writings suggest you're in western Europe somewhere


----------



## tech/a

*Re: PANIC!!!!!*

The message has been very clear from open.
opportunity to minimise losses---for those speculating have now been lost.
Punters well taking the majority of longs today was just that.

Here again is the story.


----------



## Kauri

*Re: PANIC!!!!!*

Seems that distribution is still to the fore on XJO....


----------



## Atomic5

*Re: PANIC!!!!!*



			
				theasxgorilla said:
			
		

> Your leftist, anti-American writings suggest you're in western Europe somewhere




It cant be leftist its Bloomberg   which is US based anyway. Maybe it's just not Australian edited US-fan-TV.


----------



## Out Too Soon

*Re: PANIC!!!!!*

Having missed the fun yesterday (the mobile went mad with SMS alerts    ) I jumped on the bandwagon this morn & "bought me some bargains". IF all gos pear shaped tho I will change my leopard spots & suddenly call myself a "long term investor" (I Do so solemnly Pledge)   that way I wont lose a damn thing except some missed opportunitys while my equity is tied up "long term". 6mths (or 18) time I will still come out on top. - that's only if all gos pear shaped, personally I think we still have another couple of months.    
PS: Tech/A knows a hell of a lot more what he's talking abt, I'm just a babe in the woods.  (bl**dy ugly babe tho)


----------



## guitar_legend

*Re: PANIC!!!!!*

Hi all,

I bought me first stocks (ever) on Monday. Am I spitting that I didn't wait 3 more days? Absolutely. But that's life eh? Who saw it coming? I'm surviving and hanging in there and buying!


----------



## chops_a_must

*Re: PANIC!!!!!*



			
				tech/a said:
			
		

> The message has been very clear from open.
> opportunity to minimise losses---for those speculating have now been lost.
> Punters well taking the majority of longs today was just that.
> 
> Here again is the story.



The eerily low volumes pushing prices gently up got me spooked. So I sold my only remaining exposed (as I see it) position. Luckily I don't have many losers. Should be fun over the next week.

Interesting to see the put/ call ratio on LHG on kauri's chart there...


----------



## trading_rookie

*Re: PANIC!!!!!*

Does History repeat?

In 1987 the crash happened in Oct yet a small correction actually happened in Aug. 

Is this 'correction we had to have' just the calm before the actual storm, coming say April???


----------



## Broadside

*Re: PANIC!!!!!*

I think we will see a bit of a shakeout this next week or two, then a nice rise through to later in the year...then I will be moving into more cash

too much debt in the system, private equity groups awash with borrowed money, housing prices through the roof...crazy stuff


----------



## Jimminy

*Re: PANIC!!!!!*

Another shakeout will happen tomorrow similar to what happened on Wednesday. This is now 99% certain. Why?

China is down 3%    already so this bodes extremely unwell for the US & Europe prior to the ASX opening tomorrow morning. 

http://www.sse.com.cn/sseportal/en_us/ps/home.shtml

Expect some more carnage and if you are bold and astute enough some more buying opportunities.


----------



## Dr Doom

*Re: PANIC!!!!!*

I think the skill needed from here on is determining if secular trends have broken down. Also, reference back to past events are no guide to future events eg regrets about having sold a stock back in the May correction & subsequently gone up bare little resemblance to the current climate, and going back in to 'top up' on holdings so soon is asking for trouble until there is some sort of direction established. If you look back at the May correction there were several more weeks of selling before it took off again. However it's different this time due to - 

- The commodities secular bull has probably finished, and will now trade on day to day supply demand fundamentals instead of a blind bull mentality.
- The US is borderline reccession 
- China's financial infrastructure is being exposed for what it is, a debt driven liquidity smogasbord
- Japan carry trade

Bottom line is, give it a bit more thought before blindly going long this time around in the belief things will continue as they were - the cycle has to turn at some stage, maybe yesterday was the X factor that tips the balance? 

Be prepared for a major company collapse soon (maybe the likes of General Motors) & the sub-prime mortgage contagion spreading to major banks. Not very nice but this is where we are at now in the experiment that started some 35 years ago. Be prepared.


----------



## billhill

*Re: PANIC!!!!!*



			
				Jimminy said:
			
		

> Another shakeout will happen tomorrow similar to what happened on Wednesday. This is now 99% certain. Why?
> 
> China is down 3%   already so this bodes extremely unwell for the US & Europe prior to the ASX opening tomorrow morning.
> 
> http://www.sse.com.cn/sseportal/en_us/ps/home.shtml
> 
> Expect some more carnage and if you are bold and astute enough some more buying opportunities.




Not necessarily true. Dax and Ftse are up as are US market futures.
The situation may be stabalising.

http://money.cnn.com/2007/03/01/markets/stockswatch/index.htm?postversion=2007030106


----------



## theasxgorilla

*Re: PANIC!!!!!*



			
				Dr Doom said:
			
		

> Bottom line is, give it a bit more thought before blindly going long this time around in the belief things will continue as they were - the cycle has to turn at some stage, maybe yesterday was the X factor that tips the balance?




I've heard this a few times this bull run already...tell me WHY it's different this time?  Not a new set of negative circumstances (before it was oil, now it's Shanghai etc.)...the REAL reason.


----------



## dodgers

*Re: PANIC!!!!!*

The real reason is Risk

At some stage risk had to be re-priced. There's too many variables in the world for the valuations we've just been seeing (Iraq, US economy etc etc).

The US knows this. Whats happening at the moment is a re-pricing of risk. Doesn't mean the fundamentals have to change, merely a short-term re-adjustment...


----------



## chops_a_must

*Re: PANIC!!!!!*



			
				Dr Doom said:
			
		

> Be prepared for a major company collapse soon (maybe the likes of General Motors) & the sub-prime mortgage contagion spreading to major banks. Not very nice but this is where we are at now in the experiment that started some 35 years ago. Be prepared.



I think in the not too distant future, right wing economic theory will be shattered once again. It's no different to the 20s really. BRING BACK KEYNES I SAY!

I was talking about this to someone today... that if there are interest rate rises (out of control inflation makes this likely) I cannot for the life of me see how Ford or GM would ever be able to service their ever growing debt.

Another thing that troubles me, how do these hedge funds post ever increasing profits? They are essentially selling to one another in a zero sum game. The game is pass the parcel, and the music has to stop some time, it is going to be soon.

HSBC has already reported serious problems hasn't it? One thing I've noticed in my short time on this planet, listening to financial reports etc. is that there is always an ice breaker of bad news. Other companies then no longer feel obligated to continue propping things up, and feel safer in the knowledge that they aren't the only ones coming out with bad figures. Becomes a herd mentality with companies also.

I'm guessing the real big hammering will come after some of these US banks start issuing profit downgrades. Then watch liquidity dry up like a nun's nasty.


----------



## Smurf1976

*Re: PANIC!!!!!*

I wonder if the situation has lead to any hedge funds blowing up? A few % fall isn't a problem, unless you have incredibly high leverage...

If these funds end up having to dump remaining assets to raise cash then that's the most likely trigger for an outright crash IMO. I'm not saying there will be a crash, just that if one happens then that's a possible trigger.

If history is any guide then it will be a few weeks until we know if any hedge funds have gone under as a result of the volatility. That there has been such a willingness to take on very high risks, due to the lack of volatility in recent times, is the underlying problem there. Very high leverage works both ways...


----------



## wayneL

*Re: PANIC!!!!!*



			
				billhill said:
			
		

> Not necessarily true. Dax and Ftse are up as are US market futures.
> The situation may be stabalising.
> 
> http://money.cnn.com/2007/03/01/markets/stockswatch/index.htm?postversion=2007030106



Whoa! Just walked in and cranked up my screens...

Dow futures down ~100 an hour before open.


----------



## wayneL

*Re: PANIC!!!!!*



			
				wayneL said:
			
		

> Whoa! Just walked in and cranked up my screens...
> 
> Dow futures down ~100 an hour before open.



...and guess what? The yen is up against all currencies.

Beware the YCT unwind


----------



## Smurf1976

*Re: PANIC!!!!!*



			
				chops_a_must said:
			
		

> I think in the not too distant future, right wing economic theory will be shattered once again. It's no different to the 20s really. BRING BACK KEYNES I SAY!
> 
> I was talking about this to someone today... that if there are interest rate rises (out of control inflation makes this likely) I cannot for the life of me see how Ford or GM would ever be able to service their ever growing debt.
> 
> Another thing that troubles me, how do these hedge funds post ever increasing profits? They are essentially selling to one another in a zero sum game. The game is pass the parcel, and the music has to stop some time, it is going to be soon.
> 
> HSBC has already reported serious problems hasn't it? One thing I've noticed in my short time on this planet, listening to financial reports etc. is that there is always an ice breaker of bad news. Other companies then no longer feel obligated to continue propping things up, and feel safer in the knowledge that they aren't the only ones coming out with bad figures. Becomes a herd mentality with companies also.
> 
> I'm guessing the real big hammering will come after some of these US banks start issuing profit downgrades. Then watch liquidity dry up like a nun's nasty.



You just beat me there with the hedge funds as I was typing my previous post.   

As for Ford and GM, I heard somewhere that at the rate they are burning cash (the polite way of saying you're losing money), Ford will be technically bankrupt by the middle of next year. That is, if losses continue at the recent pace then they will consume ALL of Ford's cash and other assets in the next 18 months. GM doesn't seem to be doing much better although I haven't heard any detailed figures for them.


----------



## nizar

*Re: PANIC!!!!!*



			
				wayneL said:
			
		

> Whoa! Just walked in and cranked up my screens...
> 
> Dow futures down ~100 an hour before open.




ALOT of data out 2nite + earnings + M&A action, could still go either way...


----------



## Garpal Gumnut

*Re: PANIC!!!!!*

There are too many mea culpas from tech/a down.

Nobody knows where this retracement will end.

It came from left field.

If your money is precious to you and you could not bear a further loss ... sell

If you've been through this before, evaluate and decide.

At present I don't see what all  the kerfuffle is about.

Garpal


----------



## Kimosabi

*Re: PANIC!!!!!*

Most of Europe went backwards again...

http://www.bloomberg.com/markets/stocks/wei_region2.html


----------



## Smurf1976

*Re: PANIC!!!!!*

Regarding problems getting through to brokers during big market moves that some have posted, it's the same problem with any kind of infrastructure relying on the diversity of demand principle.

If we ALL pick up the phone at once then most won't get a dial tone.

If it goes to 50 degrees in Melbourne on any weekday then I'll guarantee you that the power grid will not have enough capacity. Some will have supply, some won't, but the system as a whole just doesn't have the capacity for such an extreme demand.

Same with roads. Try having every car in Sydney on the roads all at once and none of them will be moving faster than walking pace (if they're moving at all).

Same with water. Some of the councils (which distribute water) in Hobart had water restrictions in place for a few weeks earlier this year despite more than enough water. They just couldn't pump it fast enough when everyone turns on the sprinkers all at once so they introduced an "odds and evens" system to limit spikes in demand. Water as much as you like, just don't all do it at the same time.

Same with airlines, public transport and so on. And the same with brokers. They all fail in the event that everyone tries to use it at the same time even though on average they have surplus capacity. So don't count on being able to sell when you want too if there's a big move happening at the time.


----------



## theasxgorilla

*Re: PANIC!!!!!*



			
				dodgers said:
			
		

> At some stage risk had to be re-priced. There's too many variables in the world for the valuations we've just been seeing (Iraq, US economy etc etc).




I tend to agree with this...I can't say "completely" because I'm not an economist and even if I was I doubt my brain would have the capacity to comprehend all the interplays...so presuming you're skilled and you're brain is big enough to get all of this into perspective...what makes you think you have the timing right for this repricing?


----------



## Garpal Gumnut

*Re: PANIC!!!!!*

I think all you guys and gals are wimps, unless the all ords falls below 5500 there is no reason to panic.

Just take 2 bex and lie back and relax, 

You are going to develop some dreadful disease like stroke, heart attack or something worse otherwise.

Its only money and on my analysis your not going to lose it all this time.

Garpal


----------



## Magdoran

*Re: PANIC!!!!!*



			
				theasxgorilla said:
			
		

> I've heard this a few times this bull run already...tell me WHY it's different this time?  Not a new set of negative circumstances (before it was oil, now it's Shanghai etc.)...the REAL reason.



The real reason is market cycles.  Market cycle up, then they correct – it is the timing and magnitude which is elusive.

This is just a normal cycle.  I suspect it is a major wave 3 in a bull market, looking for a choppy wave 4 then a resumption into a high.

The commodity bull cycle may be waning now, and if so it will be a catalyst.  If not, it may also just be correcting too… the trick is to interpret the pattern of trends (time and price), isn’t it?


Mag
P.S. maybe it's just that there are more sellers than buyers???


----------



## wayneL

*Re: PANIC!!!!!*



			
				Garpal Gumnut said:
			
		

> I think all you guys and gals are wimps, unless the all ords falls below 5500 there is no reason to panic.
> 
> Just take 2 bex and lie back and relax,
> 
> You are going to develop some dreadful disease like stroke, heart attack or something worse otherwise.
> 
> Its only money and on my analysis your not going to lose it all this time.
> 
> Garpal



It's not a case of wimps, it really depends on how the trader trades, and to what end.

Buffet style investors shouldn't really be batting an eyelid. Income traders will be seeking to advantage themselves from the move.

Horses for courses


----------



## Garpal Gumnut

*Re: PANIC!!!!!*

It pisses me off when there are so many negative posts as it really freaks out the novice investors.

One guy above just put his toe in the market on Monday and is in turmoil as a result.

There is no evidence on charts or fundamentals that we are in a Bear market.

I struggle to find a reason why this retracement has occurred.

Lets keep the market in perspective.

Garpal


----------



## chops_a_must

*Re: PANIC!!!!!*



			
				wayneL said:
			
		

> Buffet style investors shouldn't really be batting an eyelid.



Of course they should be, it's a dip/ correction. This is when they should be most active. I'm no buffett investor, but after/ during this correction is the time where I will be setting up my long termers, not before like some people have decided to do on this forum.


----------



## chops_a_must

*Re: PANIC!!!!!*



			
				Garpal Gumnut said:
			
		

> I struggle to find a reason why this retracement has occurred.
> 
> Lets keep the market in perspective.



As Homer Simpson would say, "The two sweetest words in the English language... 'De'," and, "'fault'".


----------



## wayneL

*Re: PANIC!!!!!*



			
				Garpal Gumnut said:
			
		

> It pisses me off when there are so many negative posts as it really freaks out the novice investors.
> 
> One guy above just put his toe in the market on Monday and is in turmoil as a result.
> 
> There is no evidence on charts or fundamentals that we are in a Bear market.
> 
> I struggle to find a reason why this retracement has occurred.
> 
> Lets keep the market in perspective.
> 
> Garpal



Garpal,

It's part of the landscape of markets. Novices will learn or die. and this will be an excellent learning experience. I was full time trading less than 1 year when 911 happened... and I traded through 1987.

Both indispensible experiences


----------



## Freeballinginawetsuit

*Re: PANIC!!!!!*

What were interest rates like in 87 Wayne?


----------



## Kauri

*Re: PANIC!!!!!*

From MarketWatch tonight...  


> But according to Marc Pado, the Wednesday rebound was not convincing enough.
> "If Tuesday was just an aberration, then we should have gained back half of the loss," he said. "Being up 50 points when we should have been up 200 or more means that the economic data and investor sentiment was worth 150 points of downside pressure."
> On Thursday, major Asian markets, including China, Japan and Hong Kong, ended lower as investors focused on developments in Shanghai, where shares gave back about two-thirds of gains from the previous day.
> There was also renewed concern that the yen carry trade, which has been a major source of funding for investors globally, might be subsiding.
> *In addition, rumors that a big lender was in distress were floating around the market, according to research firm Action Economics.*


----------



## theasxgorilla

*Re: PANIC!!!!!*



			
				Garpal Gumnut said:
			
		

> It pisses me off when there are so many negative posts as it really freaks out the novice investors.




They're going to learn the sound of bears clutching at straws eventually anyway...it might as well be sooner rather than later


----------



## misterS

*Re: PANIC!!!!!*

China will become the undeniable world economic monster at some stage, but the tipping point is hard to spot and involves complex transitions. The market will want to anticipate it, act as though it has occurred at some point, several times, and when it stops stepping back from that position - it has happened.

With a working hypothesis that signs of the US slowdown, whether pre-recession, or soft landing might have warranted a bit of a correction earlier, this ripple is just one of the early transitional grumbles - a delay in the impact of the otherwise expected effect.  The uncertainty as well as the manifestation of the same market psychology on USA, means maybe we should continue to regard the USA economy as the leading indicator for a while longer? Recognising of course, our miners have a disproportionate interest in China regardless of when they are cemeted into top spot - and commodity fundamentals are still pretty bloody good.  

The action everyone loves in a bull market, the huge liquidity and sheer size and relative flexibility of the world economy makes the market pretty resilient and would probably need a proper crash to really quench the markets.

...just an amateur's observation...people with real money, and somewhere else profitable to put it will probably have a better idea


----------



## theasxgorilla

*Re: PANIC!!!!!*



			
				Magdoran said:
			
		

> Mag
> P.S. maybe it's just that there are more sellers than buyers???




Keeping it simple...a man after my own heart .


----------



## Kauri

*Re: PANIC!!!!!*

Early yet, but a little ominous???


----------



## wayneL

*Re: PANIC!!!!!*



			
				Freeballinginawetsuit said:
			
		

> What were interest rates like in 87 Wayne?



I don't know exactly, higher than now.

Relevance?


----------



## theasxgorilla

*Re: PANIC!!!!!*



			
				misterS said:
			
		

> ...just an amateur's observation...people with real money, and somewhere else profitable to put it will probably have a better idea




With the way world markets dropped in concert (to varying degrees) that will be quite some trick...finding somewhere else profitable.  One of those "non-correlated" commodities that WayneL mentions, perhaps?


----------



## Magdoran

*Re: PANIC!!!!!*



			
				Garpal Gumnut said:
			
		

> It pisses me off when there are so many negative posts as it really freaks out the novice investors.
> 
> One guy above just put his toe in the market on Monday and is in turmoil as a result.
> 
> There is no evidence on charts or fundamentals that we are in a Bear market.
> 
> I struggle to find a reason why this retracement has occurred.
> 
> Lets keep the market in perspective.
> 
> Garpal



Are you serious?

Respectfully, you can’t see the pattern then can you?  (I can see it clearly in my charts).

Have a look at all the market tops back to the 1929 crash and study the charts.  Then have a look at the current pattern and see what you make of it.  That is one serious down day after an almost vertical blow off move.  Just look at the pattern.  Look at the US markets, the DAX, the CAC, the FTSE.  Look at the commodities.  Look at the Yen.  Really look at the yen.  Tell me the NASDAQ, DOW and S&P 500 aren’t ending diagonals.

Markets can’t sustain vertical moves for long.  Look in the weekly and monthly charts and have a look at the momentum by putting ascending trend lines on the trend.  You’ll get the idea…

A correction is normal, and if this is a major wave 3, and you know your Elliott Wave theory, you will have a fairly good idea where this might go to.  Using other methods might actually reveal an even deeper pull back too…  

You’d then expect a very choppy wave 4 for a long time, maybe months, but if it’s proportional with the drive up, could be chopping around for a long time… and the 5th wave might be a weak struggling trend up – something to think about if you’re caught long at the wrong time, hence caution is paramount in my view.  Newbie investors should be cautious in these times.  Very cautious.

The prevailing pattern in a lot of commodity stocks is a classic ending diagonal, often characterised by violent (savage) reversals.

If Australia is a commodity driven market, and the commodities are sliding (except perhaps nickel and oil – but even nickel is looking terminal), do the math.

But of course this could all be totally wrong, and the heavens will open up, and “Bling” we’ll hit the magic 7000 tomorrow, won’t we?


Regards


Magdoran


----------



## Magdoran

*Re: PANIC!!!!!*



			
				theasxgorilla said:
			
		

> Keeping it simple...a man after my own heart .



You like that!  I do too!  Mwahahaha


----------



## Magdoran

*Re: PANIC!!!!!*



			
				wayneL said:
			
		

> I don't know exactly, higher than now.
> 
> Relevance?



You can’t compare straight rates with straight rates, a whole host of modifications are needed since the whole financial structure was so different then…


----------



## wayneL

*Re: PANIC!!!!!*



			
				Magdoran said:
			
		

> You can’t compare straight rates with straight rates, a whole host of modifications are needed since the whole financial structure was so different then…




It's ironical really, It IS different this time, yet it isn't different this time.


----------



## noirua

*Re: PANIC!!!!!*

The London FTSE Index has fallen 115.9 to 6,055.6, down 1.88%. Xstrata have fallen 99p to £22.96.


----------



## wayneL

*Re: PANIC!!!!!*

Anyone who thinks there should be no consternation about the market should read this:

http://uk.biz.yahoo.com/01032007/325/nyse-imposes-trading-curbs-stocks-fall.html



> *NYSE imposes trading curbs as stocks fall*
> 
> Corrects to programme selling from programme buying in final paragraph.
> 
> NEW YORK (Reuters) - The New York Stock Exchange said on Thursday it instituted downside trading curbs as U.S. stocks fell sharply in early trading.
> 
> The U.S. market's fall followed a sharp sell-off in equities on Tuesday. On Thursday, renewed inflation worries and *a rise in the yen stirred concern that investors were being forced to unwind carry trades.*
> 
> The New York Stock Exchange Composite Index <.NYA>, which is used to determine when to begin trading curbs, was down 159.75 points, or 1.8 percent, at 8964.79.
> 
> The trading curbs require that all programme selling of S&P 500 stocks must be on an up-tick.




"They" are worried.


----------



## ducati916

*Re: PANIC!!!!!*



			
				wayneL said:
			
		

> Anyone who thinks there should be no consternation about the market should read this:
> 
> http://uk.biz.yahoo.com/01032007/325/nyse-imposes-trading-curbs-stocks-fall.html
> 
> 
> 
> "They" are worried.




They most certainly are. There is something visceral about watching a sea of red engulf paper assets...........your house if it collapses, as long as you like living in it doesn't hurt as much, as long as your neighbor doesn't knock on your door every 30mins to tell you how much the value of the street has dropped

Watching paper assets shrink for 6.5 hrs/day tends to freak people out.

jog on
d998


----------



## Kimosabi

*Re: PANIC!!!!!*

The US is F^cked



> *Countrywide Says Late Payments on Subprime Loans Increased *
> 
> March 1 (Bloomberg) -- Countrywide Financial Corp., the biggest U.S. mortgage lender, said borrowers were at least 30 days past due at the end last year on almost a *fifth* of the subprime loans that it serviced for others.
> 
> Delinquencies on ``nonprime'' loans, those made to borrowers whose credit rating fell short of the highest criteria, widened to 19 percent as of Dec. 31 from 15 percent a year earlier, the Calabasas, California-based lender said in an annual regulatory filing with the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission. The rate stood at 17 percent at the end of September, according to the company's last quarterly filing.
> 
> Last month, Countrywide gave delinquency rates for its overall loan servicing portfolio that didn't break out each category.
> 
> Countrywide collected payments on $1.28 trillion in mortgages that the company and other lenders originated as of Dec. 31, of which $116.3 billion were below prime. The company is the largest subprime mortgage servicer in the U.S., with a 9.7 percent share, according to newsletter Inside B&C Lending.
> 
> Subprime loans include mortgages made to borrowers with poor credit ratings or heavy debt burdens. Servicing involves tasks such as billing, collections and record-keeping.




http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601087&sid=aYuBtI1SQAF0&refer=home

You can't tell me that subprime debacle isn't going to unravel the whole US economy, then the rest of the world.  It's seems to be feeding off itself.  There's apparently $1 Trillion of ARM's that reset this year that a lot of people who have these loans won't be able to afford to repay.

Next we'll see Unemployment surge, consumer spending decrease, tightening Credit Policies, Unemployment surge, consumer spending decrease, tightening Credit Policies, Unemployment surge, consumer spending decrease, tightening Credit Policies...

Luckily most of my money is in Gold or Cash.  Super is in Cash, I think I might bounce some money into the Bear Market Fund.  The Financial Adviser I saw the other week thought I was crazy when he saw my Super was all in Cash.

The worse thing about the sub-prime debacle, is that the person's mortgage is funded in part by their PENSION fund that invest's in, you guessed it Mortgage Securities, so not only do they loose a stack of money when they default on their Over-Inflated Home-Loan, they will also loose money for years to come on their pension fund that had invested in defaulting Mortgage Securities.


----------



## wayneL

*Re: PANIC!!!!!*



> NEW YORK (Reuters) - The New York Stock Exchange said on Thursday it removed downside trading curbs as U.S. stocks pared early losses.
> 
> The curbs were instituted as stocks plummeted after the opening bell. The New York Stock Exchange Composite Index <.NYA>, which is used to determine when to begin trading curbs, was last down 98.33 points, or 1 percent, at 9026.21. It was down more than 2 percent earlier in the day.




Goldman Sachs has gotten control of the situation on behalf of their client. :


----------



## wayneL

*Re: PANIC!!!!!*

http://biz.yahoo.com/ap/070301/japan_us_greenspan.html?.v=5



> AP
> 
> Greenspan: U.S. Recession Not 'Probable'
> Thursday March 1, 8:15 am ET
> Alan Greenspan Says He Doesn't Think Economic Slowdown in U.S. Is 'Probable'
> 
> TOKYO (AP) -- Former U.S. Federal Reserve Chairman Alan Greenspan told a Tokyo seminar on Thursday that he does not think economic slowdown in his country is "probable," toning down his earlier warning over a recession later this year.
> 
> "It is possible we can get a U.S. recession toward the end of this year, but I don't think it's probable," Dow Jones Newswires quoted Greenspan as saying in his speech at a Tokyo forum organized by international brokerage CLSA.




Greedscam is still not to old for a backflip when ordered


----------



## Freeballinginawetsuit

*Re: PANIC!!!!!*

Sounds like someone I used to deal with at Kojonup who lost his job for embezzlement as the CEO at the Shire.

When asking him for a straight answer to a question that reqired one......he was never up to it.

'I Prefer to Defer' thats all he could muster!

A christian, embezzling, indecissive, butt kisser.....but I made money off them so he wasn't that bad


----------



## mjp

*Re: PANIC!!!!!*

"March 1 (Bloomberg) -- Countrywide Financial Corp., the biggest U.S. mortgage lender, said borrowers were at least 30 days past due at the end last year on almost a fifth of the subprime loans that it serviced for others." 

What you ommitted here is the company quoted has sold down it's subprime portfolio to be a very small part of it's total portfolio.  So while 20% of loans it services for others may be at risk (which does not mean teminal) that risk is spread around many players, all with that risk as a small part of their overall portfolio.  I've read elsewhere that the subprime mortg mkt is a small component overall.

So markets working well distributing risk and keeping it a low portion of portfolios.

IMHO - but of course but don't take my word for it, do your own research.


----------



## rederob

*Re: PANIC!!!!!*

Precious metals declined substantially overnight.
You can call off the dogs of PANIC.


----------



## Atomic5

*Re: PANIC!!!!!*

Warren Buffet just called a hard landing.


----------



## wayneL

*Re: PANIC!!!!!*



			
				Atomic5 said:
			
		

> Warren Buffet just called a hard landing.



Link?


----------



## Smurf1976

*Re: PANIC!!!!!*



			
				Kimosabi said:
			
		

> You can't tell me that subprime debacle isn't going to unravel the whole US economy, then the rest of the world.  It's seems to be feeding off itself.  There's apparently $1 Trillion of ARM's that reset this year that a lot of people who have these loans won't be able to afford to repay.



A very good reason why the real estate bubble ought to have been snuffed out before it got anywhere. Once you've had the speculative excesses and so on, there's not much left to do other than wait for the fallout.


----------



## wayneL

*Re: PANIC!!!!!*

Just looking around the NYSE cheerleading sites (Marketwatch, CNNNN etc) for Buffett references and jeez they're bearish!

It's remarkable the sentiment change.

BY comparison, the Aussie cheerleaders are still very upbeat.

Interesting times


----------



## Atomic5

*Re: PANIC!!!!!*



			
				wayneL said:
			
		

> Link?




Bloomberg cable - he just spoke at a shareholders meeting. Must be on the internet somewhere by now.


----------



## Atomic5

*Re: PANIC!!!!!*



			
				Smurf1976 said:
			
		

> A very good reason why the real estate bubble ought to have been snuffed out before it got anywhere. Once you've had the speculative excesses and so on, there's not much left to do other than wait for the fallout.




Wont this see money go back into real estate if it goes bad?  Money was pulled out of real estate the minute last years slow period was over end of August 2006.


----------



## greggy

*Re: PANIC!!!!!*

The Dow Jones went down 34 points, a very small fall.  Warren Buffett has forecasted a hard landing.  May be he's right, on the other hand I know for a fact that he is currently underinvested in the market and has been waiting for a correction.  Hence, its in his best interest to predict gloom and doom.  Do you really think that he would give free advice like that unless he had a plan to go with it?
DYOR


----------



## Atomic5

*Re: PANIC!!!!!*

He is also one of the most altruistic persons on the planet.


----------



## greggy

*Re: PANIC!!!!!*



			
				Atomic5 said:
			
		

> He is also one of the most altruistic persons on the planet.



Hi Atomic5,

I'm not doubting the fact that he's given away a lot of money to different charities over the years.  I'm just questioning his thinking behind his comments.  Is he trying to panic many inexperienced shareholders into selling so that he can use his wealth to buy up cheap stock.  He has been complaining for years about the fact that he hasn't been able to find many stocks that meet his criteria.


----------



## cuttlefish

*Re: PANIC!!!!!*

why would someone thats giving away the vast majority of their wealth to charity be trying to greedily manipulate the market to acquire more wealth.

The blokes pretty much a straight shooter by the sounds of it.  (whether he's right is another matter).

The reality is that applying proper value based methods for investing you don't need to try to manipulate the markets anyway because when a value investor is buying nobody is interested anyway, they could shout it from the rooftops and nobody would care.


----------



## greggy

*Re: PANIC!!!!!*



			
				cuttlefish said:
			
		

> why would someone thats giving away the vast majority of their wealth to charity be trying to greedily manipulate the market to acquire more wealth.
> 
> The blokes pretty much a straight shooter by the sounds of it.  (whether he's right is another matter).
> 
> The reality is that applying proper value based methods for investing you don't need to try to manipulate the markets anyway because when a value investor is buying nobody is interested anyway, they could shout it from the rooftops and nobody would care.



He also will no doubt have the effect of scaring little investors into panic selling.  No doubt he will buy back in whilst others are selling.  Yes, he does give a lot of money away, but so do a lot of other people and I commend him for that.
Anyway, clearly here lets agree to disagree. 
DYOR


----------



## Ants

*Re: PANIC!!!!!*



> why would someone thats giving away the vast majority of their wealth to charity be trying to greedily manipulate the market to acquire more wealth.



The more he takes the more he can help, maybe?


----------



## ducati916

*Re: PANIC!!!!!*



			
				cuttlefish said:
			
		

> why would someone thats giving away the vast majority of their wealth to charity be trying to greedily manipulate the market to acquire more wealth.
> 
> The blokes pretty much a straight shooter by the sounds of it.  (whether he's right is another matter).
> 
> The reality is that applying proper value based methods for investing you don't need to try to manipulate the markets anyway because when a value investor is buying nobody is interested anyway, they could shout it from the rooftops and nobody would care.




Agreed.


Buffett has been in the markets since 1951, involved with them since 1945 odd, has gone from a few hundred bucks to $40 Billion+

You would think when he speaks, people would show a little respect.
What he hasn't seen, and done isn't worth knowing.
Read the book, seen the film, got the t-shirt.

You'd listen to some retard off CNN?
If so, you deserve everything that comes your way.

jog on
d998


----------



## cuttlefish

*Re: PANIC!!!!!*



			
				greggy said:
			
		

> He also will no doubt have the effect of scaring little investors into panic selling.  No doubt he will buy back in whilst others are selling.  Yes, he does give a lot of money away, but so do a lot of other people and I commend him for that.
> Anyway, clearly here lets agree to disagree.
> DYOR




You're thinking in terms of price rather than buying assets - buffets philosophy is about buying assets so manipulating price wouldn't be at the forefront of his mind.  Understanding the different between an asset and a stock price is a great starter to wealth generation.

Happy to agree to differ though (now that I've had the last word lol    )


----------



## Dr Doom

*Re: PANIC!!!!!*

Re Buffet - if actions speak louder than words, has he gone short the $US again, after getting his timing wrong last time?. Also, while it's hard to argue with his record, is he really prepared for a real downturn ie I think he has a lot of exposure to consumer discretionary type stocks who usually take the brunt of recessionary climates.


----------



## nizar

*Re: PANIC!!!!!*



			
				Dr Doom said:
			
		

> Re Buffet - if actions speak louder than words, has he gone short the $US again, after getting his timing wrong last time?. Also, while it's hard to argue with his record, is he really prepared for a real downturn ie I think he has a lot of exposure to consumer discretionary type stocks who usually take the brunt of recessionary climates.




When you have that much money it doesnt really matter if you lose a billion or two once in a while. Yeh analysts argued he wasnt wrong about the USD last time, just early, but in this game its EXACTLY the same thing!!


----------



## TheAbyss

*Re: PANIC!!!!!*

Well i am over this. I am burying my head in the sand for a week then re evaluating. 63% of my holdings are now red.

I will stick to research and educating myself while this unfolds.

Interesting fact: China market cap = $1.3 Trillion USD and yet the first day of this correction reduced the US market cap by $1.5 trillion USD.  (Source US Squawkbox)


----------



## Halba

*Re: PANIC!!!!!*

Hi abyss. At least the pace of the declines is slowing for us both. I have been monstered by this correction.

Bit down.


----------



## TheAbyss

*Re: PANIC!!!!!*



			
				Halba said:
			
		

> Hi abyss. At least the pace of the declines is slowing for us both. I have been monstered by this correction.
> 
> Bit down.




I am feeling your pain. What do you do? Sell at a loss and lock it in or hold and ride it out? I have opted to ride it out for now. Concern with this is that if you sell now you can buy back in on the way back up and convert the loss to a gain instead of waiting to break even later on. However how do you pick it? Unless you have the skills and talents that are required you are playing follow the leader. I am just not that clever so i would probably end up getting back in where the SP's are now anyway so i am staying put and burying my head in the sand.


----------



## noirua

*Re: PANIC!!!!!*

Aussie retail sales figures are out in about 25 minutes.


----------



## chops_a_must

*Re: PANIC!!!!!*



			
				Halba said:
			
		

> Hi abyss. At least the pace of the declines is slowing for us both. I have been monstered by this correction.
> 
> Bit down.



Where are Julia and tech/a getting stuck into this guy when you need them?


----------



## tech/a

*Re: PANIC!!!!!*

Sorry been in meetings since 7.30am

Havent read the posts.
Well the markets not telling me any different to Yesterday.
Not good! No "Buying Bargains" evident--serious players arent seeing value this side of the market.

Its very possible in hindsite this stalling will be seen as the last opportunity for some to have minimised loss.
its up to the individual and their plan---if they have one.


----------



## moses

*Re: PANIC!!!!!*



			
				tech/a said:
			
		

> Sorry been in meetings since 7.30am
> 
> Havent read the posts.
> Well the markets not telling me any different to Yesterday.
> Not good! No "Buying Bargains" evident--serious players arent seeing value this side of the market.
> 
> Its very possible in hindsite this stalling will be seen as the last opportunity for some to have minimised loss.
> its up to the individual and their plan---if they have one.



Hi tech/a

I'm interested in your pov, but am trying to calibrate.

You trade the chart, not the stock...right? That is, you ignore the fundamentals in the sense that even a stock like BHP is just 3 letters in sequence, and your interest in them is purely technical analysis of how the charts indicate the stock will move.

But BLG...well, you admitted the other day you bought and will hold BLG because your physicist son recommended it on the basis of its technology...in other words, you bought it on fundamentals and expect to profit irrespective of wider market performance.

So...were we to asses the value of your comment for trading (and thats our choice and responsibility), would it not be fair to say that your comments were intended to apply to stock bought purely on a technical basis, and that comments like the above have limited application to stock bought for more fundamental reasons? Stock like BLG, or perhaps some of our favourite mining stocks.


----------



## nizar

*Re: PANIC!!!!!*



			
				moses said:
			
		

> Hi tech/a
> 
> I'm interested in your pov, but am trying to calibrate.
> 
> You trade the chart, not the stock...right? That is, you ignore the fundamentals in the sense that even a stock like BHP is just 3 letters in sequence, and your interest in them is purely technical analysis of how the charts indicate the stock will move.
> 
> But BLG...well, you admitted the other day you bought and will hold BLG because your physicist son recommended it on the basis of its technology...in other words, you bought it on fundamentals and expect to profit irrespective of wider market performance.
> 
> So...were we to asses the value of your comment for trading (and thats our choice and responsibility), would it not be fair to say that your comments were intended to apply to stock bought purely on a technical basis, and that comments like the above have limited application to stock bought for more fundamental reasons? Stock like BLG, or perhaps some of our favourite mining stocks.




Excellent question.
It'll be interesting how he tackles this one.
Im looking 4ward to it.


----------



## Magdoran

*Re: PANIC!!!!!*



			
				nizar said:
			
		

> Excellent question.
> It'll be interesting how he tackles this one.
> Im looking 4ward to it.



Nizar,


Please clear your PM box if you want to receive a reply...


Mag


----------



## Smurf1976

*Re: PANIC!!!!!*



			
				Atomic5 said:
			
		

> Wont this see money go back into real estate if it goes bad?  Money was pulled out of real estate the minute last years slow period was over end of August 2006.



Not if we get a credit tightening in which case inability to borrow gets rid of a large chunk of home buyers. Needless to say, collapsing demand isn't exactly bullish for RE prices.

How likely is a real credit tightening? Judging by the US subprime lender  implosion and what seems to be an unwinding of the Yen carry trade, we're seeing the beginning right now. The big question being how far it goes.  

I could be wrong of course so DYOR.


----------



## nizar

*Re: PANIC!!!!!*



			
				Magdoran said:
			
		

> Nizar,
> 
> 
> Please clear your PM box if you want to receive a reply...
> 
> 
> Mag




Sorry Mag.
All cleared now.


----------



## tech/a

*Re: PANIC!!!!!*



			
				moses said:
			
		

> Hi tech/a
> 
> I'm interested in your pov, but am trying to calibrate.
> 
> You trade the chart, not the stock...right? That is, you ignore the fundamentals in the sense that even a stock like BHP is just 3 letters in sequence, and your interest in them is purely technical analysis of how the charts indicate the stock will move.
> 
> But BLG...well, you admitted the other day you bought and will hold BLG because your physicist son recommended it on the basis of its technology...in other words, you bought it on fundamentals and expect to profit irrespective of wider market performance.
> 
> So...were we to asses the value of your comment for trading (and thats our choice and responsibility), would it not be fair to say that your comments were intended to apply to stock bought purely on a technical basis, and that comments like the above have limited application to stock bought for more fundamental reasons? Stock like BLG, or perhaps some of our favourite mining stocks.





Historically even through the fall of 1929 had you bought and held stocks without a catastrophic demise of the company (IE,you held a portfolio of stocks)you would have profited in the longterm.

Certainly generally with the larger caps a buy and hold will return far better than bank interest in the longterm,and even outperforming Property.

So to my posts on the topic here *PANIC*.

I instigated the post from past experience that there would be many here in the situation described in *post#1* on this thread.
The analysis is based short term---whats happening NOW---what happened yesterday relative to today and what that price action is likely to indicate in price action in the future.

So its applicable to any stock held for whatever reason.Longterm investment,short term speculative,Technically purchased/Fundamentally,whatever. The analysis is on the XJO as in times of high volatility (And thats disappeared for the time being---so whats that indicate??) those in the position of* post#1* are most interested in What is going to happen NOW.

What people do with the information is entirely up to them.

I have a longterm portfolio as you know.Those interested can see how I'm trading that by loging on to Reefcap techtrader site.
I dont hold any short positions---I dont have a CFD account --YET and I dont have the time to trade very short term.

I have 1 long--medium/shortish term position I took yesterday and I mentioned it on ASF JML site,(other than BLG) its an initial position I'm hoping to add more 2 if the market
(a) shows consistent support---not evident .Little indication (Double bottom at 5787 on 28/2) all I see so far.
(b) shows continued weakness---not evident.---but continued ability of sellers to keep price from rising out of tight ranges has me leaning strongly this way.

So regardless of reason or timeframe the analysis on XJO will have some interest---more to some than others.

By now most have lost WHY this thread was started and my motivation behind it---its still the same.
*SEE post # 1*

Hope this helps clarify.

Nizar---how'd I go???


----------



## ducati916

Reality check time.

On a purely fundamental basis, the ASX contains innumerable speccy trash that will be positively crushed and go bankrupt if a bear market does arrive.

Why?

Simply because they have no earnings, and thus cannot fund working capital unless they can raise finance......

*sell debt........no chance in hell.
*sell equity.......no chance in hell
*some form of government handout........not enough, will simply delay the final day of reckoning.

Then you have those with earnings of some description. At the onset of bear markets, funny accounting outs. Some will be ok, some won't.

The overvalued, but financially sound companies, will weather the storm, but lose capitalization.

This scenario is IF this develops into a bear market. Half the globe may well join in just for the fun of it. Markets as has now become rather painfully obvious are highly correlated.

If you are holding speccy ****e, do not break your initial entry rules.
Do not break your rules
Do not break your rules.

Live to fight another day baby.

jog on
d998


----------



## Knobby22

I'm actually up on my portfolio since the dip, and that is all it is at this point.
To be a correction, you need a bigger fall than this, about 10%.

I have decided to be prudent and reduced two positions so as to have spare cash but otherwise am just keeping my options open.


----------



## tech/a

> If you are holding speccy ****e, do not break your initial entry rules.
> Do not break your rules
> Do not break your rules.




So as a fundamental trader you only have ENTRY RULES??
Have Rules you know will return consistent profit.
Have Rules you know will return consistent profit.

Rules in isolation are as useful as a hole in a bucket.


----------



## ducati916

tech/a said:
			
		

> So as a fundamental trader you only have ENTRY RULES??
> Have Rules you know will return consistent profit.
> Have Rules you know will return consistent profit.
> 
> Rules in isolation are as useful as a hole in a bucket.




Position rules;
*entry
*exit
*position size
*adjustments

Your whole kit-and-caboodle

jog on
d998


----------



## theasxgorilla

Knobby22 said:
			
		

> To be a correction, you need a bigger fall than this, about 10%.




I expect we'll get closer to that 10% drop you talk about yet.  We're through 40-day  MA on the XJO/XAO and still a long way from the 200-day MA.  Price has fallen below the extreme of Wednesday and seems to be continuing down.


----------



## Sean K

theasxgorilla said:
			
		

> I expect we'll get closer to that 10% drop you talk about yet.  We're through 40-day  MA on the XJO/XAO and still a long way from the 200-day MA.  Price has fallen below the extreme of Wednesday and seems to be continuing down.



With minor support at 5800 broken, next stop 5660 ish. More support there. Might bounce, then head to 5450 ish, as tipped in the XAO Analysis thread. Hope I'm wrong for people buying on the way down.


----------



## nizar

*Re: PANIC!!!!!*



			
				tech/a said:
			
		

> Nizar---how'd I go???




Haha - u went fine.

I really miss the bullmarket though and those quick trades, WMT, MLS, PEN, AUZ, DYL, etc, it was good income. That October-January period was gold! 

Oh well have to adjust and learn new things i guess thats how the market is.

JML - a good pick, initially i picked it up on my scan on Monday as it closed on the all time high, though i havent took a position - Yet. Its held up better than most during these volatile times though.


----------



## CanOz

*Re: PANIC!!!!!*



			
				nizar said:
			
		

> Haha - u went fine.
> 
> I really miss the bullmarket though and those quick trades, WMT, MLS, PEN, AUZ, DYL, etc, it was good income. That October-January period was gold!
> 
> Oh well have to adjust and learn new things i guess thats how the market is.
> 
> JML - a good pick, initially i picked it up on my scan on Monday as it closed on the all time high, though i havent took a position - Yet. Its held up better than most during these volatile times though.




Do you short any stocks Nizar?

Cheers,


----------



## cuttlefish

tech/a said:
			
		

> So as a fundamental trader you only have ENTRY RULES??




fundamental investing has fundamentally based exit criteria as well as entry criteria.  True fundamental investing is not buy and hope by any measure.

A simple example of one type of fundamentally based exit criteria would be if price rises to certain p.e. or earnings falls to bring price above a certain p.e. then exit.

Because nothing is absolute - typically a better way would be if price rises to a level where P.E. is a certain proportion of current overnight cash or long bond yield then sell.  (so judge value relative to other investment instruments like cash and bonds).  

(of course there's a myriad of ways a fundamental investor might define 'value' but it illustrates the point).


----------



## tech/a

theasxgorilla said:
			
		

> Price has fallen below the extreme of Wednesday




And there in lies the analysis and why we do it.
There is NO support currently.
There has been no demand displayed.
for Elliot pundits highly likely wave A of the correction isnt in yet.


----------



## Sean K

tech/a said:
			
		

> And there in lies the analysis and why we do it.
> There is NO support currently.
> There has been no demand displayed.
> for Elliot pundits highly likely wave A of the correction isnt in yet.



Yes, I agree. A bit more to go.


----------



## Out Too Soon

tech/a said:
			
		

> And there in lies the analysis and why we do it.
> There is NO support currently.
> There has been no demand displayed.
> for Elliot pundits highly likely wave A of the correction isnt in yet.




Of cause there's no support, the only action is selling,   even myself with only 20 months experience sat & watched today,   the stocks I bought yesty morning are in the red.   They are still a bargain although would have been a  bigger bargain today & would only become a loss if I sell at a loss (which I wont).
    Alan Kohlers insight into previous corrections was that for the warning start of a correction this 3% HAS BEEN BIGGER & SHARPER than previous warnings from 87 through to present & therefore we could be in for more than 11% of correction! OUCH! (maybe, could be)
Anyway, I am still ahead having sold APG & JML (profits) & nothing else.
I still have access to some cash & will try to pick the bottom, I wont lose because I wont use a stop loss & I wont sell at a loss.
Haven't heard much from ppl like MichaelD lately who put down beginners & like to tell everyone they'll lose money without stop losses & a mechanical plan. Guess they're busy in their new taxi driving jobs. : 

A very basic lesson for beginners, it only becomes a loss when you sell it at a loss- share markets always rise on average faster than any other investment. So if you have to hold it for 6 months - do it.


----------



## money tree

Out Too Soon said:
			
		

> A very basic lesson for beginners, it only becomes a loss when you sell it at a loss- share markets always rise on average faster than any other investment. So if you have to hold it for 6 months - do it.




oh dear. lets all pray nobody is dumb enough to swallow this. I know people who paid $6 for DVT back in 2000, didnt sell using the same dumb argument.

what about the Japs? They bought the Nikkei in 1990 @ 40,000. 16 years later and they are still down 60%. 

A loss is a loss whether you stick your head in the sand or not.


----------



## Rob_ee

Posted by Out  To Soon
*I still have <<access to some cash & will try to pick the bottom, I wont lose because I wont use a stop loss & I wont sell at a loss.>>*

I have only been trading for 2 months and have executed 3 trades so far, nothing open at the moment.

The above seems like an *astonishing* statement to me and goes again everything I have ever read ..many books by past and present traders... and a few very generous people on this board who have tried to educate me to get over my prejudices on how I think the market SHOULD behave.

If you have been trading for 20 months you are fortunate to have participated in a Bull market AND I may be fortunate to have started in what may become a Bear market. It may teach me a few things in the following days/weeks....

Just out of interest which stocks are you holding ??? Blue chips which will/may recover over time or the hopefulls with dreams of finding something in the future and then having funds to get going to production.

After only a few months obviously I know nothing as yet but am just looking to further my education ?

The other thing I don't understant is why would you sell JML.... has had a stellar rise over the past few months and has held up extremely well over the past 2 days.... In other words why sell your best gainer and hang on to losers ?

Rob


----------



## wayneL

It's how some of the daytraders of the late '90s became long term investors.


----------



## CanOz

wayneL said:
			
		

> It's how some of the daytraders of the late '90s became long term investors.




Wayne...whats the idea of the "cuts of beef" avatar???? Are you trying to disect the bull market? Is it the end of the bull? hehehe....the suspense is killing me.

Cheers,


----------



## wayneL

CanOz said:
			
		

> Wayne...whats the idea of the "cuts of beef" avatar???? Are you trying to disect the bull market? Is it the end of the bull? hehehe....the suspense is killing me.
> 
> Cheers,




Well.... the Bull is dead. Had to do something useful with the carcass!

....and some of the others I had in mind "could upset some viewers"


----------



## Out Too Soon

We'll see wont we.   
We're trading ASX not Nikkei.   I cut my losses on Flight Centre And CCL last year at a loss before they climbed again (for example). I sold NMS on a stop loss just before it shot to 50c a gain of over 100% & I have had lots of unnecasary losses trying to find the right level for a stop loss. The fact is there is no correct level unless you use a mechanical/automatic system that simply relys on picking more rises than falls - very inefficient & when you have a correction like now everythings an auto loss-   
 I prefer to think on my feet (well bum) & learn as I go & one thing I have obviously learnt is stop losses don't work- not for my style anyway, also no one should ever push stop losses on beginners as a must. 
  Maybe I should add I rarely use a stop loss now as a precaution against a sudden fall on a stock that is already well in the positive.
  The word "Stop Loss" is a complete *misnomer*. : 
 A lot of ppl on this forum agree with me on this but wont say anything because of endless arguments it causes but I feel compelled to share my little experience with complete noobs that can be constantly barraged with the stop loss drivel same as I was. When it all comes down to it it's up to you to find your own groove.


----------



## nizar

wayneL said:
			
		

> It's how some of the daytraders of the late '90s became long term investors.




LOL so true.


----------



## Rob_ee

Interesting reply OTS.

That sort of philosophy works very well in a roaring Bull market where everything.. even the worthless (as yet) specs soar to high levels.

I wonder though how well it works when the market turns south for any length of time.

In one thing you are certainly right.
You will NEVER sustain a loss (on paper anyway) until such time as you sell.

I for one am one of the misguided souls who have had stop loses drilled into me as a necessity for long term survival.

So far the score is 1/1/1 on my 3 trades.

Got stopped out of RTM (now MAN) from 4.8 buy sell 4.2 for a $168 loss
MAN is now at 2.6c so the loss could have been bigger

SMY bought around 2.30ish stopped out at 2.99 on a dip and watched it climb over $4 soon after for around $900 gain and broke about even on GPN sold 5.8 now 4.8.

So to me taking a small loss seems like the way to go.

Another of my failings is that I only ever buy a new or recent high as opposed to bottom picking.

Needles to say MS is not coming up with any buy candidates at the moment.  

To each his own I guess

Rob


----------



## MichaelD

Out Too Soon said:
			
		

> Haven't heard much from ppl like MichaelD lately who put down beginners & like to tell everyone they'll lose money without stop losses & a mechanical plan. Guess they're busy in their new taxi driving jobs. :



Now THIS is a funny post.

1. I haven't posted much lately because there's no point when everyone's a bull market champion. Things like risk management, stop losses, money management and respect for leverage simply don't matter, do they? Well, guess what, those same bull market champions are the ones who are now squealing in pain about how unfair it all is and demanding reassurance that the pain will soon be over. (Or they just close their eyes and pretend it's not really happening). I recall exactly the same happened last May. How quickly we forget.

2. As for my trading plans, no long term stop losses have been hit yet. If/when they are, I'll sell and bank mostly multi-R profits from the pyramided positions which I have let run for the last 10 months.


----------



## tech/a

Michael like you I hold a longterm portfolio.All is still in tact.
Below is a composite/custom index of all stocks held.
The Arrows show the effect so far on the years open profits.
Chart is weekly.

Its getting easier to spot the market fodder!  Dont you think.


----------



## cuttlefish

Out Too Soon said:
			
		

> A very basic lesson for beginners, it only becomes a loss when you sell it at a loss




Or its delisted and goes into administration or is bought via a takeover at 1/10th the price you paid for it (usually because that was an easier option to delisting it and putting it into administration) or it issues so much additional capital whilst treading water that after the second 1 for 10 consolidation your holding has been eroded to an unmarketable parcel that would cost you more brokerage to sell that what you'd get back for it.

Even value investment has value based 'stop losses'.  i.e. even Ben Graham had his own value based criteria for 'stop losses'.   Nothing is a certainty forever and if you're not reviewing investment or trading decisions objectively when new information comes to hand then you are unlikely to consistently out perform in the long term.


----------



## rederob

When I see the stock market reflecting what is happening in the real world - the world outside the financial markets - I will sit up and take notice.
I anticipate more "pain" next week, and then it will probably all be forgotten until the next time.
My strategy remains one of adding to positions on the cheap: Energy stock are my preference, and yield plays next (probably add to APA and see if the Government wants to pipe water instead of oil/gas!).


----------



## Out Too Soon

Just sharing!  
Still have cash for when we hit bottom &/or rallies on the way so while I may have some so called bottom draw investments I'll still be able to play. What's more I still may off load some at a profit on a rebound before the final plunge to what Alan Kohlers simple historic charts indicate could be 5200. 
  Much better scenario than losing 10% (or whatever) of everything. :  

              The word "Stop Loss" is a complete misnomer!


----------



## MichaelD

tech/a said:
			
		

> Its getting easier to spot the market fodder!  Dont you think.



Nah - it's just history repeating itself, over and over again. This time it's (not) different, and it's not even 12 months since the last time this happened.

Raging bull market -> everyone's a supertrader
First blip -> Screams of pain
Dead cat bounces -> Phew, the correction's over. Bargain basement buying time. Err...oops.
Few more legs down -> Supertraders suddenly go very quiet. A small minority start to pay attention to the things which really make the profits.

Repeat from beginning next bull run.


----------



## theasxgorilla

Michael D,

In your own unique way I expect you just described Elliott Wave...in particular the A-B-C corrective phase 

The ASX Gorilla.


----------



## Sean K

theasxgorilla said:
			
		

> Michael D,
> 
> In your own unique way I expect you just described Elliott Wave...in particular the A-B-C corrective phase
> 
> The ASX Gorilla.



Yep:

A: Screems of Pain
B: Dead Cat Bounce
C: Oh dear......


----------



## coyotte

What no one lighten up when the XJO breached 6000 on Thurs last week?

That's what short term is all about.

Back to 2001 --- Bl**dy Markets won't do what you expect.


Cheers


----------



## Out Too Soon

The market fodder are the self proclaimed experts & the poor sods who follow them whose stops have automatically triggered in the last few days tying in certain losses. Nobody knows if the market will recover next monday even temporarily in which case the screams of pain will be doubled when stop loss addicts realise they didn't have to suffer a loss.  

Maybe I should state the obvious, stop losses are a necasary evil for CFDs but I am neither knowledgable enough nor brave/stupid enough to go down that track. They're also useful to protect a profit on a rising stock but it's so much more profitable to pick a peak than let a stop trigger. Also pure gambling on penny dreadfuls (short term trades) use a stop. 
The only worthless X-stock I have is CRS & that's from when I first started.


----------



## MichaelD

theasxgorilla said:
			
		

> In your own unique way I expect you just described Elliott Wave...in particular the A-B-C corrective phase



Indeed. I'm not big on Elliott Wave at this stage, but from my rudimentary knowledge, the A-B-Cs have even been beautifully fractal in nature - all 3 days have had dead cat bounces intraday (more or less), and taken as an overall 3 day picture, it's a bigger dead cat bounce.

Fascinating to watch, and where it'll all end up, nobody knows.


----------



## nomore4s

Hi all,

Now I'm fairly new to this investing/trading game and this is the first correction I've encounted and I'd just like to make a few observations (from a novices point of view).
On the morning when the market dropped sharply there were a lot of posters panicking and complaining about how much they had lost (on a relatively small drop), this to me shows that alot of people were very poorly prepared for a pullback/correction. This indicates (as more experienced people have already stated) that people have fallen into a false sense of security with the strong bullmarket over the last few years and have got very poor risk management procedures in place and expect the market to just keep going up & up & up. This I think is very dangerous. 
The other thing I noticed was that it didn't take long for posters to start rubbing their hands together saying look at all the bargins and to go on spending sprees, imo without due dilligence (ie without serious consideration that this could be just the start of a decent correction), but what amazed me about this is that a drop of around 3-5% is hardly a bargin as it really is only a slight discount, and it seems as alot of these "bargins" have seemed to have dropped further. Imo if people are viewing a stock as cheap after a drop of 3% or so, even before the drop they must think it is still good value otherwise they are trading on very tight margins.
A lot have people have made a lot of money in the current bullmarket but when it does eventually end (whether this is now or sometime in the future I don't know - imo this current situation is just a correction and it will eventually resume its upward trend) I think a lot of people will lose a packet  as they will be - 
a) poorly prepared and have poor risk management 
b) they will chase the market down thinking they are getting a bargin

These are just my very simple (compared to the more experienced posters, who I might add are a lot smarter and have a much better understanding of the market than me.) observations on the current situation and is only my opinion.

Good luck to all


----------



## Goldbug

*Re: PANIC!!!!!*



			
				tech/a said:
			
		

> Ok your long and fully committed.
> 
> Your caught in the heavy down move and if you sold out would lose 1000s.
> 
> In this situation I'm interested in what those who post here are or would be doing.
> 
> I have 2 positions only and I know what I will be doing.
> 
> Comments.




I'm fortunate to have other sources of income so in a situation like this I won't sell at a loss. I too have 2 long positions in gold stock with 50% of capital still in cash. My plan is to wait for the correction in gold and DCA (Dollar Cost Average) another 25% and keep 25% as reserves.


----------



## barnz2k

NoMore
I think youve described me (aka noob) pretty well there.. I made a hasty decision to buy in on MBL purely because it dropped about 6% and its just one of those ones that has always been mentioned to me as strong in the past.

I guess If im not planning to cash my shares anytime soon I just wait and hope they recover and eventualy continue to increase.

Last year I was travelling and had no idea what my stocks were doing.. Currently I have no job and watching them far too carefully I think.. Making me make stupid decisions like the other day...

Im good at saving cash i just dont know what to do with it to make more lol.


----------



## rederob

The allords has a way to go if it is to replicate the falls of last May, or September 2005.
There is a reasonable chance it will.
Reason is that the market needs to shake off a little more before getting on to a more even keel.
As to when to buy - a matter of personal choice as it will depend as much on good timing as it will the equity right now.  But that's a truism for any day.
My view is the real question is about whether or not "panic" is well founded.
A correction was screaming out, but the need to panic was not.
I still can't see any reason to panic, as the charts are showing this to be very much in keeping with regular cyclical movements.  
Moreover, we have had US and European markets somewhat out of kilter in recent days.
Panic when they all lose 5% minimum in 24 hours and the dominos keep lining up in readiness to fall.


----------



## tech/a

5 min chart for last few days including now.
Its not saying anything different to last week.
There is no return to buying seen at this time.
Selling on even the slightest strength.


----------



## tech/a

OUCH or YES if your playing short for the last 4 days.
Still no sign of support.
Note the resistance at all consolidation benches.


----------



## money tree

THERES NO SUCH THING AS SUPPORT IN A BEAR MARKET


----------



## Sean K

money tree said:
			
		

> THERES NO SUCH THING AS SUPPORT IN A BEAR MARKET



It's not a bear market. We are still well in a bull market started in 2003.


----------



## tech/a

Agree Kennas.

*Tree*.

Define a Bear Market and WHEN it was/is obvious to you that it had turned from Bull to Bear.

I'm with Kennas I'm interested in how 4 days trading with a drop of 500 points can be qualified as a Bear Market.
When there have been 2 other corrections in the last 18 mths that have fallen well below (in total point value) to this current drop.


----------



## nizar

tech/a said:
			
		

> Agree Kennas.
> 
> *Tree*.
> 
> Define a Bear Market and WHEN it was/is obvious to you that it had turned from Bull to Bear.
> 
> I'm with Kennas I'm interested in how 4 days trading with a drop of 500 points can be qualified as a Bear Market.
> When there have been 2 other corrections in the last 18 mths that have fallen well below (in total point value) to this current drop.





We dropped 500pts??


----------



## Freeballinginawetsuit

5450,key support for the all ords...........quicker the better.


----------



## tech/a

nizar said:
			
		

> We dropped 500pts??




OOOps

Yeh good point.
Try 320.

(maybe I know something?! hahaha).


----------



## Sean K

nizar said:
			
		

> We dropped 500pts??



400 now I think.

Current situation does not warrant a Bear Market call. Possibly the start of one but too early to call. 

This is a heathy correction. 

Lucky we are having it because if the market had have kept going verticle we might have had a real  crash. pe's will start to look more attractive soon, and the specuative money is being shaken out of resources, especially uranium.

A nice healthy correction.

Everyone keep their head.


----------



## Magdoran

kennas said:
			
		

> It's not a bear market. We are still well in a bull market started in 2003.



Sure, but that's one hell of a wave 3 (assuming it is), so 4 is a LONG way down... even if it is a bull...


----------



## It's Snake Pliskin

kennas said:
			
		

> This is a heathy correction.
> 
> Lucky we are having it because if the market had have kept going verticle we might have had a real  crash. pe's will start to look more attractive soon, and the specuative money is being shaken out of resources, especially uranium.
> 
> A nice healthy correction.
> 
> Everyone keep their head.




Good words Kennas.

The rabbits are getting over reactive in their misunderstanding of what goes on in a chaotic world.


----------



## Sean K

Magdoran said:
			
		

> Sure, but that's one hell of a wave 3 (assuming it is), so 4 is a LONG way down... even if it is a bull...



I thought it was a 5. Now A. Maybe. Can you post your count up Mag.

These are my 3 year and 1 year, both with wave 5s.

There's a couple of anomolies in the 3 year, but it's smoothed out on the monthy.
On the 1 year, I know wave 3 supposed to be the longest, but hey, it fits here!   

I don't rule out another 5 wave up after this correction.


----------



## Sean K

kennas said:
			
		

> I thought it was a 5. Now A. Maybe. Can you post your count up Mag.
> 
> These are my 3 year and 1 year, both with wave 5s.
> 
> There's a couple of anomolies in the 3 year, but it's smoothed out on the monthy.
> On the 1 year, I know wave 3 supposed to be the longest, but hey, it fits here!
> 
> I don't rule out another 5 wave up after this correction.



 Disclaimer: My basic knowledge on this maybe too basic and therefore anything I say could be rubbish....


----------



## Rafa

kennas said:
			
		

> Disclaimer: My basic knowledge on this maybe too basic and therefore anything I say could be rubbish....




hehehe

Sorry, but this is the funniest thing i have heard all day...


----------



## Magdoran

kennas said:
			
		

> I thought it was a 5. Now A. Maybe. Can you post your count up Mag.
> 
> These are my 3 year and 1 year, both with wave 5s.
> 
> There's a couple of anomolies in the 3 year, but it's smoothed out on the monthy.
> On the 1 year, I know wave 3 supposed to be the longest, but hey, it fits here!
> 
> I don't rule out another 5 wave up after this correction.



That’s a classic McLaren “3 thrust” pattern you have there on your chart.  That looks like the top of wave 3 at the high, depending on your count (especially if you look at the base count as having different degrees in action, and the ED extended 5th wave in the next degree down over the past couple of months or so).  Wavepicker is the one to ask re the most accurate counts though…

Sure, fully expect a struggling wave 5 up after this correction is done... McLaren is calling for a correction to set up the 2008 bull drive...  But the wave 4 I'd expect to be prolonged and choppy as hell...


----------



## tech/a

Kenna's

Your one year wave count cant be correct as wave 3 is the shortest wave.

Moggi thats an easy one you should have picked that!!!


----------



## tech/a

I'd written up a whole heap and replied in edit from the last post to Kenna's.
Got called away and 500 words got wiped due to the 20 min expiry time.
Cant be bothered writing it all up again but here are the charts.

Top chart is weekly and the bottom daily.
Kenna's no often in indexes the 5th wave is the longest the 3 rd wave can never be the shortest. And yes if its wrong then the whole count is incorrect.


----------



## Sean K

tech/a said:
			
		

> Kenna's
> 
> Your one year wave count cant be correct as wave 3 is the shortest wave.
> 
> Moggi thats an easy one you should have picked that!!!



Yes, the rule is that it can't be the shortest, but as I inferred in the post about it supposed to be the longest, that perhaps it might be wrong. If this rule is broken, does invalidate the entire count? If so, I can't see how a count can fit into the chart. Perhaps EW is invalid for the XAO?


----------



## Sean K

Thanks. I see you've started the count from May 05. Looks like it fits ok there, but is this just convenient? Has everyone else started the count there? Perhaps that's where I've gone wrong here...


----------



## tech/a

Kenna's this may clear things up.

Radge has a count on his "Chartist site" and its different to mine both come to the same result. I may well be incorrect in "Exactness, but I believe both are valid. I'm sure if Radge sees this he may comment.
He's the expert I'm the Student.


----------



## Sean K

tech/a said:
			
		

> Kenna's this may clear things up.
> 
> Radge has a count on his "Chartist site" and its different to mine both come to the same result. I may well be incorrect in "Exactness, but I believe both are valid. I'm sure if Radge sees this he may comment.
> He's the expert I'm the Student.



Cheers. Perhaps I better join myself.


----------



## Kauri

And hey I'm the odd man out again..  . But it's all a learning curve.

Better post a chart I guess...      mm  won't post???


----------



## Kauri

gotcha....


----------



## tech/a

Kenna's.

Yes I know what you mean. One of the hardest thing to get your head around. The dynamics of the wave counts. I'm certain you'll get practitioners who will argue all day as to which count is correct. I try to have the rules satisfied without any rule which cannot be broken --broken. If it is then I do another count.
Often the question is how far back do we go.

Most wave 5s develop from triangles so I look for them to find completing wave 5s to start new counts. Generally wave 1 of the final wave is nested in the triangle.
As for validity which is often questioned (and I have/had questioned it for years myself) I need the following answered:
(1) Where is the trade relative to the current move?
(2) Where is it likely to go?
(3) When is it likely to get there?
(4) At what point will the analysis either be validated OR invalidated?

Elliot is the only analysis that Ive found that can answer all 4 in the way I feel comfortable with.
It never ceases to amaze me with its accuracy and I'm no expert.

Experts get it spot!
Oneday in a few years. Its worth the effort.---well I think so.

Beat me to it (Added a little adjustment.)


----------



## gavmit63

*Re: PANIC!!!!!*



			
				Pager said:
			
		

> The pullback was well overdue and I for one have a few stocks on my radar to add to my long term holdings should the price be right once the dust has settled.




I'm with Pager on this one. Looking forward to picking up some stocks on my watch list at reasonable prices.


----------



## Magdoran

tech/a said:
			
		

> Kenna's
> 
> Your one year wave count cant be correct as wave 3 is the shortest wave.
> 
> Moggi thats an easy one you should have picked that!!!



No, Daffy, I was talking about the 3 in the next degree up, but agreeing with Kennas that the last drive up was an extended 5th wave, but in an ending diagonal with a smaller degree 5 wave strucure in the extension of the smaller degree 5th wave... consistent with Prechter's model for ED...


----------



## MichaelD

Well, here's my scorecard for this correction to date after having been caught napping and being entirely long at close of trade last Tuesday.

1. All my short term longs are now wound up, leaving me with 5 short term losses in a row, 4 of which were small/moderate sub 1R losses and one of which was 1.04R. The exit strategy I use for this system was designed to take advantage of dead cat bounces to improve the exit, and I'm very pleased to see that its first real test with real money worked out so well. The nett reduction in my overall trading capital was 1% or so. Considering the great run up over the last few months with this system, it's a perfectly acceptable and within specification drawdown (10% drawdown of the "play money" pot allocated to the system, 1% of overall trading capital).

2. No long term long positions have yet hit stops, but I suspect a few will tomorrow. Pretty much all of them are pyramided multi-R trades, so if they do close, it will be long term trend following payday in the next few days.

3. I'm now set to go short with my short term system as of tomorrow. I dabbled in shorting unsuccessfully last year, but came up with another system which has been paper trading for six months with an acceptable positive expectancy - the trading signals are there in abundance for tomorrow, so here goes with real money.


The biggest difference for me in comparing what happened last May with the last week is in my mental approach - the current market conditions simply are what they are as far as I am concerned, and I'm looking forward to the challenges presented, not reeling in pain.


----------



## Magdoran

Kauri said:
			
		

> gotcha....



And where you have the two 5s at the top is where the major 3 is in the next degree up... we think...


----------



## mrWoodo

I am a fan of the Money Flow Index indicator (this is the green line in the attached chart, overlaid on top of the all ords). For the last three corrections, I've drawn yellow lines on the approximate date the market bottomed out. For these three dates, the MFI percentage was 9%, 33% and 22% respectively. (generalising a bit, but <25% can be a potential bottoming out). What worries me is today the MFI is sitting still in the upper band, at 81% ! I would hazard a guess that there is still a fair way to go before we see a bottom, and a corresponding 'oversold' MFI to match. My guess is 5200. (The trend line I've drawn dates back to early '03). Sorry the chart is a bit cluttered, my disclaimer is that I'm a novice so it won't really matter if I'm totally wrong  


edit - whoops, stuffed it, uploaded a new chart


----------



## nizar

MichaelD said:
			
		

> 3. I'm now set to go short with my short term system as of tomorrow. I dabbled in shorting unsuccessfully last year, but came up with another system which has been paper trading for six months with an acceptable positive expectancy - the trading signals are there in abundance for tomorrow, so here goes with real money.




Why have you waited until now to go short?
Your entry gave No entry signals until now?


----------



## wavepicker

A monthly long term chart,

my 2c worth

Cheers


----------



## nizar

Wow 4192 is a LONG LONG way down.
The most bearish forecast/prediction iv seen.

Any 3000s out there?


----------



## Magdoran

nizar said:
			
		

> Wow 4192 is a LONG LONG way down.
> The most bearish forecast/prediction iv seen.
> 
> Any 3000s out there?



Indeed Nizar, 


This is what we keep saying may be the case.  We think this is quite possibly a major correction.  But we need to see it confirmed in the coming price action.

I actually referred to the 4178.48 target level in the XAO analysis thread as the current worst case crash target by 18 July 2007, if fit pans out that way.  A lot depends on how this tend plays out.  The first counter trend will tell us a lot about the cycle down.  Our projections are not far off each other’s work through entirely different methodologies…

So wavepicker and I can imagine a correction all the way to this level if the major bear trend comes to fruition, then a consolidation as per wavepicker’s chart for the wave 4, then a struggling 5th wave.  But this campaign before a bullish resumption may take a couple of years…  think about how long this bull market has lasted, and how long the last correction lasted post the 1999-2000 high…

So this is certainly a possibility if you look in the monthly chart.  We’ve been studying this for months now… But nothing is certain, we could be dead wrong.

It is way too early to call at this point.


Regards


Magdoran


----------



## wavepicker

nizar said:
			
		

> Wow 4192 is a LONG LONG way down.
> The most bearish forecast/prediction iv seen.
> 
> Any 3000s out there?





It's 30%. We had a 50% correction in 1987, 24% correction in 2002/3.  The DJIA corrected almost 39% between 1999 and 2003. 

Anything is possible


----------



## lesm

wavepicker,

Interesting chart, saw a prediction for the XAO on the ET forum at 4000 tonight. 

Looks like the guys over there have been watching the Asian, Aust and NZ markets very closely to try and get a feel for things. Could be an interesting open over there tonight.

They have started up a Black Monday thread. The 12th since 2002.

Oh, nizar one the guys over there did make a joke about the XAO hitting 3000, don't think he was serious though. Now wouldn't that sort out the who the survivors are going to be.

cheers


----------



## Kauri

wavepicker said:
			
		

> A monthly long term chart,
> 
> my 2c worth
> 
> Cheers




   HI wave picker,
                      It's probably the late hour but I am having trouble reconciling the green W4 on your chart at around the 2700 mark. Where am I going wrong??
                   Thanks
                             Kauri


----------



## MichaelD

nizar said:
			
		

> Why have you waited until now to go short?
> Your entry gave No entry signals until now?



Because of the strict limit set on Portfolio HEAT in my short term trading system. The system needs to close existing positions before it will allow me to open new ones, long or short. Today was the day when I closed off the last of my longs in the system, thus allowing new positions to be taken as of tomorrow.

In regards to trading signals, over the last 2 weeks or so I've been noticing more and more stronger and more consistent short signals, but have been taking the long signals exclusively with real money.


----------



## Kimosabi

I can see the All Ords going down to between 3000 - 4000

The reason for this, is since 2003(Easy Money - Low Interest Rates) the All Ords has surged past what the historical All Ords Trading Envelope should be.

Don't believe it can happen, check out the 10yr Nikkei Graph.

I have this horrible feeling(and I don't think I'm alone) that the US is going to go through the same Massive Asset Deflation that Japan experienced.

The US is screwed whatever they do, it's called too much debt.


----------



## wavepicker

Kauri said:
			
		

> HI wave picker,
> It's probably the late hour but I am having trouble reconciling the green W4 on your chart at around the 2700 mark. Where am I going wrong??
> Thanks
> Kauri




Apologies Kauri, it was late at night and my attention to detail is lousy. Green wave 1 should start after 87 crash. Where I have marked th green waves, they should be blue  until 2002 high. have re atached chart

cheers


----------



## tech/a

Waves.
Back to the dark ages---"Super Cycle".

Thanks for the chart/s,(The altered ones) was going to ask about alternation but note you have it marked.So waiting to see the corrective move play out.
Highly likely to be an initial ABC but developing into a 5 wave 1st leg of a (Possibly)  3 wave ABC Corrective move.

If so this is likely to take months quite possibly years before 6000 is seen again.
Whats your take on time Waves?


----------



## wintermute

This chart was just a join the dots exercise and it was a rather forced join the dots at that  honestly I have no idea what I'm doing  just thought I'd put it up, feel free to ignore 




Tony.


----------



## money tree

4150 is 50% fibb retracement of 2700 to 6000


----------



## money tree

tech/a said:
			
		

> 5 yrs before the XAO hits 6000-----I've got that archived----classic.




so last week you were sarcasticly laughing at my bold call, and this week you are claiming it as your own?



			
				tech/a said:
			
		

> If so this is likely to take months quite possibly years before 6000 is seen again.


----------



## tech/a

*Tree*
Still laughing at 5 yrs.
Think thats un-- likely. Dont know how long yet not enough info to work from---yet.

Hows the identification af a bear market going?
Your analysis is always rivveting.


----------



## coyotte

Tech/A

Is that "TradeGuider" software you are using in the last post?

If so, what is your opinion of it for the Oz market?

Cheers


----------



## wavepicker

tech/a said:
			
		

> Waves.
> Back to the dark ages---"Super Cycle".
> 
> Thanks for the chart/s,(The altered ones) was going to ask about alternation but note you have it marked.So waiting to see the corrective move play out.
> Highly likely to be an initial ABC but developing into a 5 wave 1st leg of a (Possibly)  3 wave ABC Corrective move.
> 
> If so this is likely to take months quite possibly years before 6000 is seen again.
> Whats your take on time Waves?




No worries tech. Have not had much time to scratch my ass lately, been doing everything in a hurry, between working a fulltime job and trading my account in this correction. I am sure you know what I mean.

I am just looking at the big picture here of where we have been and where we MIGHT be going.  I don't know if my degrees of trend are correct, but at this juncture it probably matter little as the trend is down. 
EW provides some good guidelines but no certainties. But putting that aside we know the Law of Alternation does crop up quite often in charts.  If we had a 'sharp correction  in 1987, then the most probable result would be a "sideways move" in the coming years, which is what I would favour. Similar to what the DJIA did in the 1970's. By sideways move I mean any of the family sideways corrections ie, some sort of triangle, a regular flat, an irregular flat(which would result in a new unorthodox high), or a combination of all either of these.  No one can tell at this stage.

Totally agree that most likely a larger abc would be playing out in the first leg of this correction. Probably similar to what Gold did in it's first move down last May.  I would hazard to guess that this larger wave a of the abc down might be a choppy affair. But after wave b, wave c will be a capitulation style move down similar to the move post Sep11 2001(wave c’s are akin to wave 3’s). But we can study that more later as I believe it’s quite a long way off.  How long will we take to get back to 6000?  Cannot answer this( I like to look at one move at a time), suffice to say that I think this leg down may take the rest of the year to play out and some of next year. I think we will retest the highs thereafter in the rally that follows, but it will probably take the market as much time to move back up as it did down if not longer. You do the sums

However just focusing on the current move, it should find support at the base or apex of the last contracting wave 4 triangle(wave 4 of one less degree of trend)  that preceded this last leg up(May correction of last year) which is approx 5000. I would label that was the close to the completion of wave A. Before then though I believe we will get a small rally (perhaps at 5500).

But getting a bit ahead of things ATM

Cheers


----------



## tech/a

coyotte said:
			
		

> Tech/A
> 
> Is that "TradeGuider" software you are using in the last post?
> 
> If so, what is your opinion of it for the Oz market?
> 
> Cheers




No its Marketcast 5 min tick chart.(Actually the charting package Prospecta).
You can google the 2

Tradeguider---I have it and like it but still looking at best practice usage.
Too much to explain here.(its good for all markets including Futures).


----------



## nizar

This rebound is the last chance to get rid of those longs?
And an opportunity to go short?


----------



## Dr Doom

Pump & dump by the insto's. Classic bull trap today. Lots of data coming out in the US this week, and after the ISM result it's not looking too good.


----------



## CanOz

nizar said:
			
		

> This rebound is the last chance to get rid of those longs?
> And an opportunity to go short?




I agree, in all the analysis that we've seen, they all call for a corrective move down. So thats usually a three wave move right, the second wave is the bounce. Is this the way you see it Nizar?

Cheers,


----------



## doctorj

Why is it when markets are going up, its a supercycle and a new age economy and "different this time".  When its going down, its the start of the bear market we had to have and its going to be a sustained and deep pull back.

And why is it every time we have a correction, people trot out 1987 (or even 1929 - have I got my yr right there?) for a comparison?

Why do very gifted traders suddenly care about predicting the future when they all have trading plans telling them exactly what to do anyway?

I don't have an opinion on where we will be at the end of week, I'll just trade what I see when it happens.  If I were a *betting man*, I'd say we saw the lows of this leg yesterday and we're going to be green this week.  Not sure if its a DCB or just the end of the correction.

Not ranting - just curious.  Good luck to all


----------



## Out Too Soon

I imagine it's just a blip on the way down to oblivion but ZFX, BSG, OXR, GBG & a whole heap more- correction all ordinaries show green arrows with point on top. 
I've already made the mistake of jumping in too soon last thursday. 
Comments?  

Wait maybe the bounce is petering out already. Help!


----------



## CanOz

doctorj said:
			
		

> Why is it when markets are going up, its a supercycle and a new age economy and "different this time".  When its going down, its the start of the bear market we had to have and its going to be a sustained and deep pull back.
> 
> And why is it every time we have a correction, people trot out 1987 (or even 1929 - have I got my yr right there?) for a comparison?
> 
> Why do very gifted traders suddenly care about predicting the future when they all have trading plans telling them exactly what to do anyway?
> 
> I don't have an opinion on where we will be at the end of week, I'll just trade what I see when it happens.  If I were a *betting man*, I'd say we saw the lows of this leg yesterday and we're going to be green this week.  Not sure if its a DCB or just the end of the correction.
> 
> Not ranting - just curious.  Good luck to all




I think its just human nature (male nature more so) to try and solve the problem, analyse it to death. I really look forward to the analysis of the more experienced traders, this whole thing is a huge learning experience for me, i'm really enjoying this, its a shame people are losing money though.

Cheers,


----------



## tech/a

doctorj said:
			
		

> Why is it when markets are going up, its a supercycle and a new age economy and "different this time".  When its going down, its the start of the bear market we had to have and its going to be a sustained and deep pull back.




Doc.
There are analysis tools that can alert you to periods/or levels of significance.
They have done that THIS time. You may have noticed that in the past I've not made a great deal of down moves. This time I have simply because there are many whose analysis confirms.



> And why is it every time we have a correction, people trot out 1987 (or even 1929 - have I got my yr right there?) for a comparison?




Thats true, but these corrective moves make up part of the whole picture. While in isolation they have little relevance to today as part of the ANALYTICAL landscape they are very important.---as we shall see.



> Why do very gifted traders suddenly care about predicting the future when they all have trading plans telling them exactly what to do anyway?




True, I'll take Techtrader as its reasonably known. It has very specific rules which I will adhere to. It may well breakdown from the Numbers "Blueprint" at which time I will close down my trading within the method.
*FURTHER*
Analysis tells me that this is likely to now be quite a period of less than bullish trend type conditions. Not suited to trend type methodologies.
Time to alter or become prepared to alter my trading bias.---been doing this since before Xmas.



> I don't have an opinion on where we will be at the end of week, I'll just trade what I see when it happens.  If I were a *betting man*, I'd say we saw the lows of this leg yesterday and we're going to be green this week.  Not sure if its a DCB or just the end of the correction.




Think this is the beginning of "B" of the three wave corrective phase.
At the end of this ABC we need to see if we get a 5th wave down (which many suspect) if this occures then a short term correction is out of the question.The 5 waves will then be a single first wave A of a larger timeframe ABC or even a more complex structure.(Tree may have me laughing on the other side of my face---but too early for me to call).
As these things develop I can walk through them if you want.



> Not ranting - just curious.




Does this help a bit?


----------



## doctorj

tech/a said:
			
		

> Doc.
> There are analysis tools that can alert you to periods/or levels of significance.
> They have done that THIS time. You may have noticed that in the past I've not made a great deal of down moves. This time I have simply because there are many whose analysis confirms.



Fair call.  I guess we're just at different stages of development.  Personally, I've learnt a lot from your posts and it's definately accelerated me up the learning curve.  Maybe I'm just not there yet or maybe what I'm doing is working so I'm not looking any deeper?



			
				tech/a said:
			
		

> Think this is the beginning of "B" of the three wave corrective phase.
> At the end of this ABC we need to see if we get a 5th wave down (which many suspect) if this occures then a short term correction is out of the question.The 5 waves will then be a single first wave A of a larger timeframe ABC or even a more complex structure.(Tree may have me laughing on the other side of my face---but too early for me to call).
> As these things develop I can walk through them if you want.



I guess what we suspect is simlar.  You're calling the start to a B and I suspect a short term low is in place.  It's funny how different methods of analysis can converge on the same outcome.  

I'd be greatful if you maintain your commentry as things unfold.  I do pay attention to EW, but more of as a curiousity than a trading tool and I'm always looking to learn more.

So with your analysis, are you still only trading equities?  Have you begun to use your understanding of the market in managing your business or are you looking at indicies or commodities or currencies?


----------



## tech/a

doctorj said:
			
		

> I guess what we suspect is simlar.  You're calling the start to a B and I suspect a short term low is in place.  It's funny how different methods of analysis can converge on the same outcome.




They can and do.Elliot Ive found is more accurate---tells you where you are and where you should think about being.  



> I'd be greatful if you maintain your commentry as things unfold.  I do pay attention to EW, but more of as a curiousity than a trading tool and I'm always looking to learn more.




Just like you so did I (pay attention to Elliot.) Its when it keeps doing what its supposed to do that a cursory interest becomes a "need to know".



> So with your analysis, are you still only trading equities?  Have you begun to use your understanding of the market in managing your business or are you looking at indicies or commodities or currencies?




Havent altered from stock,but can see how trading other instruments may well be possible (as I can see where I could have an edge) and possibly desirable in the future. In the Near future---No its a time thing I'm still learning myself!!


*Chart*

Counts are in all time frames---sometimes they arent clear and with the waves being dynamic people have trouble with the possibility and often the eventuation of labelling having to change.


----------



## theasxgorilla

doctorj said:
			
		

> Why is it when markets are going up, its a supercycle and a new age economy and "different this time".  When its going down, its the start of the bear market we had to have and its going to be a sustained and deep pull back.
> 
> And why is it every time we have a correction, people trot out 1987 (or even 1929 - have I got my yr right there?) for a comparison?
> 
> Why do very gifted traders suddenly care about predicting the future when they all have trading plans telling them exactly what to do anyway?




1. Because boring news doesn't sell.
2. Because everyone knows it's impossible to accurately imagine how the future is going to be (ask Harry Dent or Bob Prechter)...much easier to just say it's going to be the same as it was before.
3. Because predicting is a little bit of fun.  Doing it makes you feel like you know something nobody else does (and this is true until proven otherwise) and because if you get it right you are entitled to your 15 minutes of fame.

Cynical??? Who, me?

The ASX Gorilla.


----------



## tech/a

Changing waves---as evident here.


----------



## tech/a

Now confirmed.


----------



## tech/a

Sorry wont bore you anymore just practicing.


----------



## Knobby22

tech/a said:
			
		

> Sorry wont bore you anymore just practicing.




No, keep it up. I find this micro version of Elliot waves fascinating. 
They also appear to me) to be more accurate that than the long term ones as emotion is so immediate.

K22


----------



## Kauri

tech/a said:
			
		

> Sorry wont bore you anymore just practicing.




   Hardly boring......
                   Am trading it much the same as ypu have your count, except I anticipated the w5 top a bit early..     am on the verge of being stopped out.
                 Sorry....   Can't put a count on as no text in this chart.


----------



## Dr Doom

Yes, keep the analysis going with the charts. Tech, did you act on your target price eg go short. The strength in this rebound is amazing.


----------



## theasxgorilla

Knobby22 said:
			
		

> No, keep it up. I find this micro version of Elliot waves fascinating.
> They also appear to me) to be more accurate that than the long term ones as emotion is so immediate.
> 
> K22




I agree on both K22!

Tech/a, please do keep it up.  My interest in Elliott Wave continues to be re-kindled.  I actually had a question...IF you are mapping a 5-wave count up here, what does that infer about the wave of one higher degree?  Impulse?  I'm stilll rusty 

K22, EW does seem to work better in shorter timeframes.  Your counts are confirmed or denied more frequently meaning you can re-adjust sooner...Prechter made his famous 400% trading options on an index with hourly charts, but has failed miserably to predict anything in the long term.


----------



## motorway

I am replying so I can not see your chart as I type

( should have opened another window )

First three bars = ending action esp 2 and 3  Selling Climax in 3

Quick rally called Automatic ( vacuum of overhead offerings but buyers not likely to push too hard )

Down to a secondary test... Then some immediate Signs of strength

Some bars with good range and closes ... Straight into a Jump across the creek... Such strong definitive reversal expect significant markup ( such a good jump cleared the creek ( of supply )  and the far bank as well... So maybe not much of a back-up expected )

Markup phase follows.... 

looks ( No volume ) as if demand tappered off  series of small rallies reactions

reaccumulation area.....measuring  thrusts and 1/2 way points.. 

going to form an apex with rising bottoms ( good sign for this being reaccumulation )  
look to continuation to occur


Much in common between elliot and wyckoff
quote about Wyckoff

"Wyckoff understood that  price movement does not unfold in equal units of time but that it unfolds in waves. "

Elliot attempts to put a structure on the waves

Wyckoff says waves last as long as they retain a following

And the secret is in that VOLUME = following

Cheers Tech/a your chart looks like a copybook Wyckoff Schematic..

Even without volume it can be inferred to some extent from the bars .

Have a look at the schematics

motorway


----------



## MichaelD

That's one sprightly dead cat bounce we're having today. (Maybe no one told the cat it was supposed to be dead).

Speaking from the way I see it (which is to consider whether there is fear or greed around) - I was very surprised this morning when I saw that the Dow hadn't fallen another 100 points. It made me feel quite bullish, quite the opposite to how I felt last night. Looks like other market participants today feel the same.


----------



## tech/a

Ok.

Tommorow I really have to get some work done. Plus I'm zapped watching 5 min charts.
No Im not trading retracements long or short. I'm not set up to do that yet and when I do it will be EOD.There is no way I could or want to be glued to a screen.

So here is an hrly screen which clearly shows our A in place and now our B being formed.Id be looking at 50-61.8 retracement for B any lower like 38% and its very weak.

Remember I'm no expert.


----------



## tech/a

*Not a good sign * 

Obvious selling into strength.


----------



## nizar

Agree tech.
This isnt over yet.

GIve it a couple more weeks and a few hundred more points off the XAO.

In my opinion.
Then again this could well be approaching the end of the bullmarket.


----------



## Julia

Tech

For those of us for whom Elliott Wave is a foreign language, could you include some brief translation in terms of what the analysis suggests is actually happening (or going to happen) to the market?

With thanks

Julia


----------



## tech/a

Sorry Julia.

I tend to only comment on elliot when it has relevance.
In this analysis I'll mark up one tonight and post it up.

Sort of a crash course in basics.

Anyway.
5 min chart is *looking very familiar * to the consolidation range we had not so long ago---3 days infact.

This is indicating no strong buying.
Every time it reaches the resistance (top Blue line) sellers swamp buyers and price moves back toward support (Bottom Blue line).

I expect the bottom Blue line to be broken and price fall away sooner than later.Price may for a short time exhaust buyers by going a few tick over the resistance level before dropping away.

Wait and see.


----------



## KIWIKARLOS

So does anyone still think we're crashing?  

I almost bought into the panic, but I held. Unfortunately I didn't buy, but alot of my mates did and have now made 20% + on alot of stocks.


----------



## tech/a

Kiwi.

That 20% will look less soon Im sure. Unless they got out at 20% profit.

A bit of education.

Corrective waves move in 3's


----------



## KIWIKARLOS

I should get into graphs more there is obviously alot you can pick up with them.

I still believe it is very unlikely to go under 5600 during this correction. Am i right in saying that the wave peaks look to be getting smaller and is leading towards a stabilisation?


----------



## Kauri

The first few minutes after the close not looking too good, long time between now and tomorrow am. though...


----------



## tech/a

This will be* very basic explaination * as whole books have been written by people who have studied Elliot all their lives.

Dynamic Trading by Robert Miner is right to the point but like all publications on Elliot difficult to follow for those who have little technical background.

OK

*Corrective patterns * are "Normally" 3 waves.
BUT
If the low of wave 3
is taken out then this will be a 5 wave correction which in its entirety becomes 1 wave (or "A") of a larger 3 wave correction A,B,C.
Three wave corrections are labelled A,B,C.

Corrections can be very complex so dont get all tied up trying to label them just know that they are a corrective (Read non trending) move.

*Trending*
Is characterised Either long or short by 5 wave patterns.
1,2,3,4,5
Waves 1,3,5 are impulsive---forward moving and Waves 2,4 corrective.

Waves form in various degrees or Timeframes.
Minutes/hrs/daily/weekly/monthly.

If the wave 2 is simple or quick to form before continuing the trend then the wave 4 will be complex and Vice versa.

Wave 3 MUST not be the shortest wave.
Wave 4 cannot be lower than Wave 1 high.

That will do without confusing people.
As for Targets they "Normally" fall at a Fibonacci level which you'll see on peoples charts.
1 or 1.618 X last wave length being the most common---there are many other levels.

Hope this helps.
Just watch and ask questions if we miss in commentary.
If you need to learn another language then Elliot analysis is for *YOU*.


----------



## Porper

KIWIKARLOS said:
			
		

> So does anyone still think we're crashing?
> 
> I almost bought into the panic, but I held. Unfortunately I didn't buy, but alot of my mates did and have now made 20% + on alot of stocks.




I wouldn't get too confident Kiwi.

Maybe the market is just sucking everybody in to a false sense of security, then Bang, another big drop.That's my take anyway.

No smoke without fire as they say.Time to go short now i.m.o.


----------



## wayneL

tech/a said:
			
		

> *Corrective patterns * are "Normally" 3 waves.
> BUT
> If the low of wave 3
> is taken out then this will be a 5 wave correction which in its entirety becomes 1 wave (or "A") of a larger 3 wave correction A,B,C.
> Three wave corrections are labelled A,B,C.
> 
> Corrections can be very complex so dont get all tied up trying to label them just know that they are a corrective (Read non trending) move.



Just a bit of pedagoguery:

Correctives can trend in the case of double and triple zig zags. The difference from an impulse is that the smaller degree waves are all also corrective... unless one or more of the corrective patterns is a flat in which case wave c will be impulsive...

...Bex please lol


----------



## constable

wayneL said:
			
		

> Just a bit of pedagoguery:
> 
> Correctives can trend in the case of double and triple zig zags. The difference from an impulse is that the smaller degree waves are all also corrective... unless one or more of the corrective patterns is a flat in which case wave c will be impulsive...
> 
> ...Bex please lol



Now i love my english and i had a near perfect score for my exam in vce, but i would love to know just what the **** is pedagoguery?


----------



## CanOz

I get the distinct feeling that there are two schools of thought here on this correction.

Some feel that the bounce was a retracement from the breakdown.

Others feel that the bounce is part of the three wave decline. 

Am i right with this? 

Cheers,


----------



## tech/a

CanOz said:
			
		

> I get the distinct feeling that there are two schools of thought here on this correction.
> 
> Some feel that the bounce was a retracement from the breakdown.
> 
> Others feel that the bounce is part of the three wave decline.
> 
> Am i right with this?
> 
> Cheers,




Currently you/they could be right on BOTH counts.
A new high above 6000+ would see school B correct.
A breakdown of significance would see (At the time) School A correct.

The question is
At what point do you declare either A or B to be correct?


----------



## coyotte

Would have thought "Failure to rise above the previous high"

Cheers


----------



## tech/a

Early trading


----------



## tech/a

For me there were 3 signs of the end on the latest run up or Wave "B"
Last night VSA analysis gave another.

*Discussion was here yesterday * 

https://www.aussiestockforums.com/forums/showthread.php?p=133836#post133836

(1) *Wave "B" retraced to just over .618 * of the initial down move.




(2) The XJO was rising all last week and the Techtrader portfolio which predominantly holds some of the best performers of current years,became weaker as each day crept ahead on the XJO,clear* DIVERGENCE*

Clear *SELLING INTO STRENGTH*





(3) Yesterday was a* Pivot Point Reversal.*




(4) Volume and Spread analysis *alerted NO DEMAND*---confirmed in (2)





Technical analysis is about *CONFIRMATION*---its pretty clear.


----------



## wayneL

ABC zig-zags are the easiest, the most high probability EW pattern to trade in real time IMO. I love them.


----------



## pacer

But is the Aussie stock market stronger than a chart.....there' still plenty of money looking for a home out there...where will it go this time....gold stocks me thinks....I'm betting on it this time round, and a few biotechs and it's no wonder Woollies is climbing...everyone has to eat and people are looking for a safe bet, but WOW is one I'm looking to short if it realy overheats.

But dont listen to me I know nothing and delegate all my stock picks to my cat.


----------



## tech/a

> But is the Aussie stock market stronger than a chart.....




What the----???

Is a failing Heart stronger than an ECG?
(God-- things just keep moving to a higher level on a daily basis).


----------



## nizar

tech/a said:
			
		

> What the----???
> 
> Is a failing Heart stronger than an ECG?
> (God-- things just keep moving to a higher level on a daily basis).




LOL tend to agree.
Tech, wave C takes us down to 5400ish?
Close to the 200dma...


----------



## Sean K

nizar said:
			
		

> LOL tend to agree.
> Tech, wave C takes us down to 5400ish?
> Close to the 200dma...



Just on a wave C, can someone tell us the 'rules' for this. Is it longer than A, a 50% retractment from A, or B or ?? I'm not sure if there is a 'rule'. My pluck would be to put it where I first thought this was going: At 5450 ish, just on the support line around there. ??


----------



## coyotte

From Adaptive Analysis:

Wave "A" and Wave "C" tend to be the same length.

Hence:  A = 6052-5642=410 , C = 5895-410 = 5485.

Ref: XJO


Cheers


----------



## Sean K

coyotte said:
			
		

> From Adaptive Analysis :
> 
> Wave "A" and Wave "C" tend to be the same length.
> 
> 
> Cheers



That takes us to 5500, which is one of the support lines down there. 5450 ish is still my call. 50 points either way.


----------



## tech/a

(Strategies for those long)

*As an exercise for interest only.*

As this is the topic and incase some would be interested in how I would have/or now play it (I havent gone short as I dont have a CFD account--will be interesting in how costly this will have been by not having one.).

I would be short on 4 of the weakest movers from the last downturn.
They are 
ZFX
PDN
JBM
ALL.
I would have "margined" at 2:1 (Im conservative.)
Stop would be yesterdays high plus 2 ticks.
Exit at around 4765 ish on the XJO

I found four weakest from a search I created in metastock.
Just rated by %.

Exploration notes		

Col A: 	C-Ref(C,-4)/C*100	
Filter	CLOSE >10.00	

Filter enabled	Yes	
Periodicity	Daily	
Records required	5000	

For those interested searched on 5/03/07as that was the end of the fall.

*WAVE C*

From Me in conjunction with the writings of Robert Miner.

(1)I think this will be a more complex correction so expect only around a 50-70% move of "A" so this becomes a probable triangle.(*Because * wave "A" was a simple 3 wave structure and not a 5 wave structure)

(2) If this becomes a 5 wave correction and "C" tests or EXCEEDS "A"
Then this could be a completion of the ABC zigzag correction.(Not yet known *but I think far less likely * in my limited veiw.)

*So my target is 5755 ish/MAX.*
as a probable triangle forming OR more *complex correction*.

So I'm against the tide of most opinions it seems.


----------



## wavepicker

kennas said:
			
		

> That takes us to 5500, which is one of the support lines down there. 5450 ish is still my call. 50 points either way.




5500 was my level for an intermediate bounce some weeks ago. But I stress an intermediate bounce.  This of on the larger timeframe is in it's infancy and will ultimately move to 5000(this is the span of the previous 4th wave of one less degree a common place for support) .  Either bullishly OR countertrend. No one can tell at this stage


----------



## tech/a

OOPs.

re calculation.
*Its 62% of wave "A" not "B"*
According to Miner.

Making the possible target.
5662 max.--255 points.
For this leg,of a more complex corrective move.

Still out of step with everyone.


----------



## tech/a

*Waves * or anyone who is more experienced in wave counts.

Which would make the C wave around the length of "A" or 411 points.

Therefore target *5506.*
Back in step.

Is this the way you view the count? Which would explain why I'm out of Step.
Thanks.


----------



## Kauri

Tech,
          Nothing to do with your count but the way Miner's software sees the simple ABC, of course not including projections for the larger degree W(2). By the way, would the B wave in your chart be right labelled abc as opposed to 123???


----------



## dubiousinfo

tech/a said:
			
		

> (Strategies for those long)
> 
> *As an exercise for interest only.*
> 
> As this is the topic and incase some would be interested in how I would have/or now play it (I havent gone short as I dont have a CFD account--will be interesting in how costly this will have been by not having one.).
> 
> I would be short on 4 of the weakest movers from the last downturn.
> They are
> ZFX
> PDN
> JBM
> ALL.




You can go short with your normal trading account using put warrants.


----------



## tech/a

*Kauri.*
Thanks Yes I was just labelling wave counts more so than the correct ABC counts.

I presume the longer possible targets are 1.618 X "A" and 2 X "A".
In a 5 wave corrective move---- not possible to call until wave "A" exceeded?

Is that miners software? If so.
How does it differ to AGET?

Still learning good to post up and recieve feedback.
*Dubious*--not on all of them though. Still its an exercise only.


----------



## MichaelD

tech/a said:
			
		

> As this is the topic and incase some would be interested in how I would have/or now play it (I havent gone short as I dont have a CFD account--will be interesting in how costly this will have been by not having one.).



Just curious - have you ever shorted anything, Tech?


----------



## Kauri

tech/a said:
			
		

> *Kauri.*
> Thanks Yes I was just labelling wave counts more so than the correct ABC counts.
> 
> I presume the longer possible targets are 1.618 X "A" and 2 X "A".
> In a 5 wave corrective move---- not possible to call until wave "A" exceeded?
> 
> Is that miners software? If so.
> How does it differ to AGET?





   Tech,
          Min = 0.618 of A subtracted from top of B..
          Typ = 1.000 ""   ""            
          Max = 1.618 ""   ""
         Software is Miners DT.. is totally different to AGet... will send a mail later on re differences... 
           Kauri


----------



## tech/a

Michael.

No.Hasnt been the need.


----------



## Atomic5

2 dead cats and counting????

You normally only get one dead cat bounce before the market capitulates into a downward trend. 

  

(btw - Tommorrow GM who have delved into the subprime market release their data and that apparently isn't going to be good either.)


----------



## dubiousinfo

dubiousinfo said:
			
		

> You can go short with your normal trading account using put warrants.






> Dubious--not on all of them though. Still its an exercise only.




Not all stocks, but you can on the 4 stocks you mentioned ZFX, PDN, JBM & ALL.


----------



## tech/a

Thanks D.


----------



## MichaelD

tech/a said:
			
		

> Michael.
> 
> No.Hasnt been the need.



So would you backtest and/or paper trade first, or just jump right in?


----------



## tech/a

I would and will use the principals of Money management which I know.
I will trade in a discretionary manner.

The analysis is not something that can be coded and tested.
being a combination of VSA/Elliot and other conventional analysis.

I intend to trade in this manner when my long term systems fail due to market conditions not seen during testing. When this occures I will exit all positions and trade in a discretionary manner.

Have already traded this way in a very rough form of how I intend to trade in the future,without the help of software and with poor knowledge of Elliot Wave---managed more return in % than T/T for the 8 mths I trialled the ideas.Without shorting.
A way to go yet but when up and running I wont be punting.


----------



## coyotte

Quote : Tech/A

(Strategies for those long)

As an exercise for interest only.

As this is the topic and in case some would be interested in how I would have/or now play it (I havent gone short as I dont have a CFD account--will be interesting in how costly this will have been by not having one).

I would be short on 4 of the weakest movers from the last downturn.
They are
ZFX
PDN
JBM
ALL
I would have "margined" at 2:1 (Im conservative.)
Stop would be yesterdays high plus 2 ticks.
Exit at around 4765 ish on the XJO

UNQUOTE:


Just another approach to SHORTS:

1: First I check the ASX site for allowable SHORTS --- U will find a list with % of the available loan used.

2: Selecting from the ones with the highest %, I then check to see if they are still near their HIGHS.

3: From that list bring in your T/A --- Gaps etc


Shorted: SUN and WOR  using this approach last week --- still holding the two positions.



Cheers


----------



## It's Snake Pliskin

tech/a said:
			
		

> I would and will use the principals of Money management which I know.
> I will trade in a discretionary manner.
> 
> The analysis is not something that can be coded and tested.
> being a combination of VSA/Elliot and other conventional analysis.
> 
> I intend to trade in this manner when my long term systems fail due to market conditions not seen during testing. When this occures I will exit all positions and trade in a discretionary manner.
> 
> Have already traded this way in a very rough form of how I intend to trade in the future,without the help of software and with poor knowledge of Elliot Wave---managed more return in % than T/T for the 8 mths I trialled the ideas.Without shorting.
> A way to go yet but when up and running I wont be punting.




Tech,
I see you have discovered intuition.
I closed a long position today counter to my original trade plan because I see weakness, and I protected capital. For me it is the only way - protecting capital on the weak side.
Snake


----------



## tech/a

*Snake*
Well not entirely.And I dont classify the analysis as Intiuition.

All of my longterm Systems portfolio's are still open (3) of.
All hemorrhaging.


----------



## nizar

tech/a said:
			
		

> *Snake*
> Well not entirely.And I dont classify the analysis as Intiuition.
> 
> All of my longterm Systems portfolio's are still open (3) of.
> All hemorrhaging.




Tech.
If you are expecting the end of this bullrun, then why not close off your trades in your long term systems, rather then let them suffer, ummm, even more "haemorrhaging"...


----------



## mit

What a strange day. The market is 100 down but I have hardly moved. My portfolio consists of 1/3 shorts and 2/3 longs. I thought I would make a killing on the shorts and have to close out many of the longs. I'm slightly up at the moment but my universe of shares are only slightly down.

The market drop must be concentrated in very few stocks. I don't know whether this is good or bad for the overall market.

MIT


----------



## tech/a

Well because they are systems.
They have a blueprint and if I second guessed the blueprint over the years Ive run them I wouldnt be in the position I'm in now.
Maximum drawdown is 22% (Peak to Valley) so if it is below that then I will close all systems---there is a few % difference in each system.


----------



## Kauri

mit said:
			
		

> What a strange day. The market is 100 down but I have hardly moved. My portfolio consists of 1/3 shorts and 2/3 longs. I thought I would make a killing on the shorts and have to close out many of the longs. I'm slightly up at the moment but my universe of shares are only slightly down.
> 
> The market drop must be concentrated in very few stocks. I don't know whether this is good or bad for the overall market.
> 
> MIT




 Be thankfull you're not holding many long in the XTO   


*Top 20 of ASX 100 Stocks*

*Rises: 4* *Falls: 95* *Steadies: 2* Mar 14, 2007 2:00:02 PM 



*Top 20 of Whole Market*

*Rises: 173* *Falls: 848* *Steadies: 717* Mar 14, 2007 2:00:02 PM


----------



## It's Snake Pliskin

Kauri said:
			
		

> Be thankfull you're not holding many long in the XTO
> 
> 
> *Top 20 of ASX 100 Stocks*
> 
> *Rises: 4* *Falls: 95* *Steadies: 2* Mar 14, 2007 2:00:02 PM
> 
> 
> 
> *Top 20 of Whole Market*
> 
> *Rises: 173* *Falls: 848* *Steadies: 717* Mar 14, 2007 2:00:02 PM




I have 1 long still in place and it is up.
I short on too and it is up


----------



## mit

I had a look at the XTO makeup and most of the fall seems to be concentrated on the resource, energy and finance stocks.  

MIT


----------



## mit

It's Snake Pliskin said:
			
		

> I have 1 long still in place and it is up.
> I short on too and it is up




My biggest short is Lion Nathan and it had the gall to recover back to yesterday's close.


----------



## wondra

mit said:
			
		

> My biggest short is Lion Nathan and it had the gall to recover back to yesterday's close.




Probably that beer order I just rang through....sorry


----------



## coyotte

Anyone Know what Vol been like?

Have WOR short and it's only done around half its avg Vol atm. (3.30)

Fat Lady hasn't sang yet 

Cheers


----------



## It's Snake Pliskin

mit said:
			
		

> My biggest short is Lion Nathan and it had the gall to recover back to yesterday's close.




A lot of bleeders from the open have recovered to bleed the shorters.
Wait for tomorrow when the public hear of the drops. Panic in this environment will be telling I think. Something to gauge. Maybe panic or no panic.


----------



## coyotte

Reckon this is just newbie SHORTS panicking.


Cheers


----------



## Kauri

coyotte said:
			
		

> Anyone Know what Vol been like?
> 
> Have WOR short and it's only done around half its avg Vol atm. (3.30)
> 
> Fat Lady hasn't sang yet
> 
> Cheers




At 3pm

IndexPrice 5738.8
	

	
	
		
		

		
			




IndexMovement -105.2-1.8%
Turnover 3,653,329,544,
Volume 500,771,139


----------



## It's Snake Pliskin

coyotte said:
			
		

> Reckon this is just newbie SHORTS panicking.
> 
> 
> Cheers



Possibly, and possibly overleveraged  
I'm seeing my short through.


----------



## dovetree

I wouldn't get carried away with any market view until the futures contract expiry is finished.


----------



## tech/a

Why.

Contracts are either liquidated or rolled over.
There is no physical delivery.


----------



## dovetree

Markets are sometimes "pushed around" during this period and don't always reflect the true state of play.


----------



## coyotte

What a learning opportunity this could turn out to be !

The 94/95 correction ?
The 00/02 flat market ?
The 02/03 correction ?

We have been in a bull market since 03 -- now is not the time to PANIC  but to sit up take note of what's going on -- imho even if the markets recover the best  a long can hope for is a FLAT market over the next couple of years --- new trading conditions --- new learning opportunities to serve you in the future --- learn to trade in a FLAT market and when the BULL returns it will be a breeze.

DON'T WASTE THIS OPPORTUNITY 


Cheers


----------



## wayneL

coyotte said:
			
		

> *What a learning opportunity this could turn out to be !*
> 
> The 94/95 correction ?
> The 00/02 flat market ?
> The 02/03 correction ?
> 
> We have been in a bull market since 03 -- now is not the time to PANIC  but to sit up take note of what's going on -- imho even if the markets recover the best  a long can hope for is a FLAT market over the next couple of years --- new trading conditions --- new learning opportunities to serve you in the future --- learn to trade in a FLAT market and when the BULL returns it will be a breeze.
> 
> DON'T WASTE THIS OPPORTUNITY
> 
> 
> Cheers



Agree

I've always held the opinion that it's a bad thing to learn to trade in a bull market because folks make money despite themselves... just buy!!!!

I started full time trading in a bear and it's set me up for anything that comes along.


----------



## coyotte

In some ways a FLAT market can be easier to trade than a BULL:

The Specs and Newbies have left, leaving a core group of subdued disciplined traders --- the buying on the lows and selling on the highs is gone --- the press has given up --- stocks are now being traded on their merits ---- the wild swings are a thing of the past, with generally ample warning of major corrections coming into play.

You are now trading with a group of fellow traders who actions are easier to follow than a bunch of Specs and Newbies who unknowingly can and do leave misleading trails.


Cheers


----------



## It's Snake Pliskin

Coyotte and Wayne I agree with your comments enough to endorse them.


----------



## coyotte

This to me is looking more and more like  a typical Bull in the death throws.

You have the crowd that came in halfway during the run who done o/k buying on the dips -- they are trying to repeat the process again --- interesting to see if it works this time round though. 


Cheers


----------



## Uncle Festivus

The real test for today is if there is follow through buying after the initial flush, usually about 10:50 - 11:00, or gradually fades to a gain of 40 points or so in the XJO?. Lower highs & higher lows = wedge market till breakout either way?.


----------



## tech/a

Kauri said:
			
		

> Tech,
> Nothing to do with your count but the way Miner's software sees the simple ABC, of course not including projections for the larger degree W(2). By the way, would the B wave in your chart be right labelled abc as opposed to 123???




Seems to be setting up well.


----------



## tech/a

> I think XJO will remain under 6000 for
> 
> THE NEXT 5 YEARS




Tree.
Thought Id just remind you.
Should have had a Scotch on it.


----------



## nizar

Correction is over?


----------



## CanOz

nizar said:


> Correction is over?




We need to see new highs though Niz...could be today?

Cheers,


----------



## yonnie

*Re: PANIC!!!!!*



Kauri said:


> Was tempted to short the ASX200 last night, was only 40points down with IG




IG will be at the other side of this trade I suppose.....would they really offer you a fair price in a fast moving market?


----------



## yonnie

hello guys,

interesting thread

however from what I have read sofar, nobody has come up with a strategy that when they have a long portfolio a correction will be neutral to their p/l.
And lets be fair: the correction was only small, but NOBODY knows what might happen tomorrow.
Could be a 25% drop, anything is possible.

Things being said:
1. I have a stop loss of 10% on my positions: you still lose at least 10%

2. I sold all my positions, because I felt a correction was near: your timing could be totally wrong and you would "lose" a lot of money in opportunity cost

3. the worst is the majority of traders: they hope for the best, but could lose the lot.

A professional wont give money back to the market and would be COVERED for every eventuallity -
no professionals here????


----------



## dj_420

yonnie said:


> hello guys,
> 
> interesting thread
> 
> however from what I have read sofar, nobody has come up with a strategy that when they have a long portfolio a correction will be neutral to their p/l.
> And lets be fair: the correction was only small, but NOBODY knows what might happen tomorrow.
> Could be a 25% drop, anything is possible.
> 
> Things being said:
> 1. I have a stop loss of 10% on my positions: you still lose at least 10%
> 
> 2. I sold all my positions, because I felt a correction was near: your timing could be totally wrong and you would "lose" a lot of money in opportunity cost
> 
> 3. the worst is the majority of traders: they hope for the best, but could lose the lot.
> 
> A professional wont give money back to the market and would be COVERED for every eventuallity -
> no professionals here????




well yonnie i am holding my long term portfolio (disc PDN, JML, GBG, UMC and CUY)
have sold the rest of my short-termers on open this morning.

now have around 30% cash to pick up some bargains. havent gone to 100% cash like others as if i sell my long term portfolio will be up for some big CGT.

so im sorta stuck, i have sold what i could now holding what i see as some sound stocks (IMO anyway).

ready to pick up KZL, CBH at bottom of a pending correction. zinc will have its time in the sun again, so ready to jump on that metal.


----------



## yonnie

dj_420 said:


> havent gone to 100% cash like others as if i sell my long term portfolio will be up for some big CGT.
> 
> so im sorta stuck, i have sold what i could now holding what i see as some sound stocks (IMO anyway).




that`s why you need a good strategy for those days that WILL come around. 
some say: ah well I`ll weather the down turn and it will go up again. She`ll be right mate; just plain laziness. 
Now you`re also hesitant to sell if you need to because of CGT. But there are ways to cover yourself without selling your portfolio.

Well when the day comes, there might be no CGT for you to worry about at all.

Be a professional and get your cover.


----------



## professor_frink

yonnie said:


> hello guys,
> 
> interesting thread
> 
> however from what I have read sofar, nobody has come up with a strategy that when they have a long portfolio a correction will be neutral to their p/l.
> And lets be fair: the correction was only small, but NOBODY knows what might happen tomorrow.
> Could be a 25% drop, anything is possible.
> 
> Things being said:
> 1. I have a stop loss of 10% on my positions: you still lose at least 10%
> 
> 2. I sold all my positions, because I felt a correction was near: your timing could be totally wrong and you would "lose" a lot of money in opportunity cost
> 
> 3. the worst is the majority of traders: they hope for the best, but could lose the lot.



you could always try hedging.



yonnie said:


> A professional wont give money back to the market and would be COVERED for every eventuallity -
> no professionals here????




No. None of those here


----------



## dj_420

yonnie said:


> that`s why you need a good strategy for those days that WILL come around.
> some say: ah well I`ll weather the down turn and it will go up again. She`ll be right mate; just plain laziness.
> Now you`re also hesitant to sell if you need to because of CGT. But there are ways to cover yourself without selling your portfolio.
> 
> Well when the day comes, there might be no CGT for you to worry about at all.
> 
> Be a professional and get your cover.




im actually prepared to weather the storm in a few select stocks

JML - start producing next month, will take advantage of next zinc upswing, also have benambra deposit, have come off their highs but hold up very well during periods of consolidation. i also have a cheaper entry 45 cents on them so im not really prepared to sell then buy back in again.

GBG - will start producing hematite at the end of this year start of next year. for their resource size i think they are vastly undervalued. they have already secured JV with chinese steel smelter and they are actually building a smelter to handle all of GBG magnatite product. they have 1.4 billion tonnes of magnatite which is quite large resource.

UMC - completely undervalued iron ore junior. goldfields drilling program has proven up a pre JORC 120 mt around 60% fe. they have recently discovered more deposits hidden under surface. i see a huge upside in these guys and i again wont buy or sell to gain a few cents here or there.

PDN - obviously producing uranium, next mine to come online at the end of 2008 i believe, only uranium producer that is exposed to these inflated uranium prices. although been consolidating recently is a great growth story IMO.

actually sold out of CUY this morning, stopped out.

i dont have stops on any of the other stocks i hold. i have also been careful to only invest in metals with strong demand both now and in the foreseen future.

IMO my strategy is that i have a long term part of my portfolio which i wont touch at all (if only to add to positions), a medium term and short term. have recently been stopped out or sold my short termers.

now have some cash for a correction if we get it. 

IMO next stocks to run will be zinc again, CBH, JML, KZL, ZFX.


i also might add that i have recently been looking into producers or near term producers for maximum gains. IMO this is agreat way to get into a metal with high demand.


----------



## yonnie

hi dj

just a little uncertainty about economics or a melt down somewhere and there will be no ships waiting to be loaded.
And as far as your metal stocks are concerned, nobody would be interested in the least that they are near production


----------



## wayneL

yonnie said:


> A professional wont give money back to the market and would be COVERED for every eventuallity -
> no professionals here????



Not quite true. Some professional will hedge themselves, but hedging (in speculative terms rather than productive terms) simply transfers risk from one spot to another.

For example, someone with 100 AAPL shares for which the investor has purhased an ATM put option, has taken out a hedged position. The investor has removed the downside risk in the stock completely. However, he/she has introduced a replacement risk; that is the risk that the investor will lose the entire extrinsic value of the put option.

There will always be risk, and therefore a least desired outcome, even for professionals. Furthermore, time and price movement may introduce new risks that may require re-hedging, costing money, and forcing a specific view of the future.

That someone can cover themselves for any eventuality, automatically, is nonsense.


----------



## yonnie

*Re: PANIC!!!!!*



tech/a said:


> I doubt I'll see longterm buy signals for a while as they operate off the Highest high for 70 bars and a cross of the highest bar for the last 10 bars (double dutch I know) but it keeps you out of taking long positions longerterm if there is a prolonged correction.




hi tech/a,

Do you trade index futures?

Highest high for 70 bars means highest price for the last 70 days and what is a cross of the highest bar for the last 10 bars?

Is this your long term account with positions lasting months/years?

thanks tech


----------



## yonnie

hi Wayne,

we can only try to cover our risks as good as possible.
thats why I have 2 internet connections and 2 computers and stop loss orders in the market in case we have a technical breakdown and I am helpless and can only watch.
a library with a computer/internet connection is around the corner from here.

for the long position risk you can have a short portfolio to balance the market risk. 
drawbacks are that you probably lose or break-even at best in a rising market and double the work with 2 portfolios`

for market risk I would rather have a OTM option than ATM
option on an index rather than a stock.
it has been calculated that the insurance will cost about 3% of the portfolio value per year.

and what about your money/cfd/shareholding with your broker: are those assets insured somehow if your broker goes belly up.

strange that everybody seems to take home insurance for granted and you might never claim against it in your whole life.
as for portfolio insurance you bet it will happen in your life time, so it is wise to think about it.
unless you can afford to lose

if my trading is just a hobby ok, but if it is my bread and butter I better look at it as a business and minimise every risk. there is far more to it than just trading.

so there`s nobody here with a good market neutral strategy?


----------



## dj_420

yonnie said:


> hi dj
> 
> just a little uncertainty about economics or a melt down somewhere and there will be no ships waiting to be loaded.
> And as far as your metal stocks are concerned, nobody would be interested in the least that they are near production




i think you will find that in the event of a correction the stocks that hold up relatively well and rebound nicely are the producers and near term producers.

only been investing for nearly two years now, i originally had all my money in explorers lost a lot of money and changed my strategy, since changing my strategy have increased portfolio by around 250% in 9 months. now i focus on metals in demand and companies that are near to producing those metals.

obviously you are criticising my methods and my long term plan. IMO you are  trying to sell insurance of some sort to the masses.


regarding your market neutral strategy what do you suggest investing in a range of industries or hedging against positions?

i would actually prefer to be more knowledgable in one industry than know a small amount about all industries. and why not go where the money is? you may argue that infrastructure stocks are the safe sound way to go for the future but in the meantime miss out on spectacular gains in other areas as that industry may not be as atractive.

maybe you have a very low appetite for risk and as such should be investing in "mummy and daddy" shares in a range of industries. i might also add that from your remarks we can obviously deduce that you yourself must be a professional and as such you have the best market neutral strategy.


----------



## yonnie

Good on you dj for such a good performance. you`re doing better than I do with my performance at only 77.5% without leverage in about the same period.

And no, I`m not critisizing your methods at all, but I just would like you to KEEP what you already achieved.

And no, I`m not selling anything - I just leave that to the gurus`

As to my protection plan, I just have an idea but I would like to see what other people do to protect their asset, but I think that nobody is really interested in a 100% protection.

And you`re right to concentrate on a particular part of the economy that is doing so well.

I`ve been at it for 9 years now - usually 2 steps forward and 1½ back and now I am making very good money with a good strategy, I dont want to lose it somehow.  That`s why I am in the process of covering every angle as a true professional. After all trading pays all my bills plus plenty left and I want it to keep doing that even when the market goes down.

With on average 50 trades a month I dont consider myself a mum and dad investor and my appetite for risk is pretty high. And that`s perfectly alright as long as you know where the exit is.

Well dj, when you are weathering the storm - I will be running for the shelter


----------



## wayneL

yonnie said:


> hi Wayne,
> 
> we can only try to cover our risks as good as possible.
> thats why I have 2 internet connections and 2 computers and stop loss orders in the market in case we have a technical breakdown and I am helpless and can only watch.
> a library with a computer/internet connection is around the corner from here.
> 
> for the long position risk you can have a short portfolio to balance the market risk.
> drawbacks are that you probably lose or break-even at best in a rising market and double the work with 2 portfolios`



Yeah, 

I would call this proactive trading rather than "cover". Cover to me implies a passive "insurance" style strategy such as a permanent put option. Probably just a matter of semantics.



yonnie said:


> for market risk I would rather have a OTM option than ATM
> option on an index rather than a stock.
> it has been calculated that the insurance will cost about 3% of the portfolio value per year.



The thing with OTM puts is that you have low delta, and hence more downside risk. It becomes cheaper, but your "excess" (to use insurance parlance) becomes very much greater, viz, more risk. Therefore this sort of cover is really only against a black swan. Maybe that's all you're after, but that's not "Every eventuality". At 3% per year, thats quite a long way OTM at current volatilities, 600 pts or so at a guess.



yonnie said:


> and what about your money/cfd/shareholding with your broker: are those assets insured somehow if your broker goes belly up.



Agree, I don't like CFD's for that reason... counterparty risk.



yonnie said:


> strange that everybody seems to take home insurance for granted and you might never claim against it in your whole life.
> as for portfolio insurance you bet it will happen in your life time, so it is wise to think about it.
> unless you can afford to lose
> 
> if my trading is just a hobby ok, but if it is my bread and butter I better look at it as a business and minimise every risk. there is far more to it than just trading.




Truuuue, but the thing to weigh up is if the insurance costs more than the risk. For me it depends on the circumstances. There are times when the insurance is just not worth it... or not even worth being in the position. Judgement call.



yonnie said:


> so there`s nobody here with a good market neutral strategy?



My specialty, I have lot's of them. Again, not all is cut and dried here either. Market neutral bets (using options that is) is inherently a volatility bet. Better know what your doing here.


----------



## dj_420

yonnie said:


> Good on you dj for such a good performance. you`re doing better than I do with my performance at only 77.5% without leverage in about the same period.
> 
> And no, I`m not critisizing your methods at all, but I just would like you to KEEP what you already achieved.
> 
> And no, I`m not selling anything - I just leave that to the gurus`
> 
> As to my protection plan, I just have an idea but I would like to see what other people do to protect their asset, but I think that nobody is really interested in a 100% protection.
> 
> And you`re right to concentrate on a particular part of the economy that is doing so well.
> 
> I`ve been at it for 9 years now - usually 2 steps forward and 1 ½ back and now I am making very good money with a good strategy, I dont want to lose it somehow.  That`s why I am in the process of covering every angle as a true professional. After all trading pays all my bills plus plenty left and I want it to keep doing that even when the market goes down.
> 
> With on average 50 trades a month I dont consider myself a mum and dad investor and my appetite for risk is pretty high. And that`s perfectly alright as long as you know where the exit is.
> 
> Well dj, when you are weathering the storm - I will be running for the shelter




thanks yonnie, sorry i took your posts the wrong way.

i am prepared to weather the storm for a FEW particular stocks not all.

cheers


----------



## tech/a

*Re: PANIC!!!!!*



yonnie said:


> hi tech/a,
> 
> Do you trade index futures?




No



> Highest high for 70 bars means highest price for the last 70 days and what is a cross of the highest bar for the last 10 bars?




Looking for momentum.
The highest high for 70 days must CROSS the highest high for the past 10 days if it doesnt cross a recient high then its possibly a 70 day high without a pull back. All explained on the Q&A section of the method.



> Is this your long term account with positions lasting months/years?




The one on Reefcap isnt my personal account.I do have some stocks held in that account in mine.(I have 3 longterm systems trading) The one on the net is out performing my own by a few %,and I thought I had improved on the original!


----------



## yonnie

hiya tech,

thanks for your explanation.

at the moment I`m setting up a SMSF and do all my short/medium term trading in there and be taxed 15% on the profits.
For my personal account I would like to start with  a long term strategy involving CFD`s for maximum leverage and get taxed on CGT, hopefully on 50% of CGT for the majority of profits, so holding for more than 1 year.

I`m looking into Alan Hull`s method that also targets momentum as you do. I think that that is an excellent strategy which could easily make > 30% per year without leverage. What do you think of Alan`s method?

Are all your long term strategies momentum driven?
And what are your % profits for last year?

thanks


----------



## tech/a

yonnie said:


> hiya tech,
> 
> I`m looking into Alan Hull`s method that also targets momentum as you do. I think that that is an excellent strategy which could easily make > 30% per year without leverage. What do you think of Alan`s method?




Im afraid I dont know a great deal about it.



> Are all your long term strategies momentum driven?




Yes,all are longterm trend following



> And what are your % profits for last year?



In terms of nett no leverage---most unrealised as they are still open--approx 32% ----- Havent sat down and worked it out to be perfectly honest.


----------



## yonnie

tech thanks for your reply. am not far off the mark with my guess that 30% unleveraged should be possible.

In his 2005 book Alan Hunt dabbles in the ASX200 stock and buys the 10 stocks with the highest momentum over the last year and sells when 1. stock hits trailing stop of 20% 2. price moves below 52 week SMA 3. price falls outside top 40 4. when stock reaches 15% of total portfolio capital, Alan sells that stock down to 10% of total capital

any difference with your strategy tech?


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## tech/a

Yes.

But there are many ways to develope a method.

All (Good methods) you'll find have similar qualities.
Remember also that my method and Hulls (it appears) are trend following methods and we designed them to trade trends.
In times of less than Ideal conditions---ie a raging bullmarket--then returns which we have seen may not be as easily attained.

I'm personally looking at adding another methodology to my existing.
(shorter timeframe and both long and short (CFD's).

Investing in good testing software like amibroker and Tradesim is well worth the $$s.


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## CanOz

tech/a said:


> I'm personally looking at adding another methodology to my existing.
> (shorter timeframe and both long and short (CFD's).




Tech, any possibility of you sharing that one too? 

Cheers,


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## tech/a

Sure.

Its based around a combination of VSA analysis and Elliot.
There you go.


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## It's Snake Pliskin

tech/a said:


> Sure.
> 
> Its based around a combination of VSA analysis and Elliot.
> There you go.




Tech,

How is your EW trading going?


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## tech/a

Snake.

The Dual screen computer is on the office desk extension.
The software is all purchased.
The courses done.
The reading complete.
The Plan formulated and to some degree tested.

But sadly havent done a great deal.
Business (Civil Construction/my business) is just crazy.
Ive needed 4 more employees,and had to spend a great deal of time "In the Business". Just finishing off a stint in Perth then back to get sorted.

I expect to be trading more consistently in a few weeks.


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## It's Snake Pliskin

tech/a said:


> Snake.
> 
> The Dual screen computer is on the office desk extension.
> The software is all purchased.
> The courses done.
> The reading complete.
> The Plan formulated and to some degree tested.
> 
> But sadly havent done a great deal.
> Business (Civil Construction/my business) is just crazy.
> Ive needed 4 more employees,and had to spend a great deal of time "In the Business". Just finishing off a stint in Perth then back to get sorted.
> 
> I expect to be trading more consistently in a few weeks.




Dual screen, nice work.


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## CanOz

Nothing to panic about, but i just noticed on my scans tonite the number of unit trusts with super high volume breaking out. Seems a bit strange...is this a defensive move by some fund managers? 

They are:

CER
CGF
RAT
MOF
CPA
MCW
DRT
MCG
IPG

Interesting, anyone explain this one?

BTW - one of the scans i use is from T.Trader, some good breakouts there.

Cheers,


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## Uncle Festivus

CanOz said:


> Interesting, anyone explain this one?
> 
> BTW - one of the scans i use is from T.Trader, some good breakouts there.
> 
> Cheers,





CanOz, I noticed this too but can't explain it. Although, the news just out was the US GDP was revised lower to 0.6% - not too far from the R word?

BTW, what is T Trader & does it have a web site?
Thanks


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## reece55

CanOz said:


> Nothing to panic about, but i just noticed on my scans tonite the number of unit trusts with super high volume breaking out. Seems a bit strange...is this a defensive move by some fund managers?
> 
> They are:
> 
> CER
> CGF
> RAT
> MOF
> CPA
> MCW
> DRT
> MCG
> IPG
> 
> Interesting, anyone explain this one?
> 
> BTW - one of the scans i use is from T.Trader, some good breakouts there.
> 
> Cheers,




IPG buy out by Morgan Stanley - 50 prem over NTA and 20 +% above 30 day VWAP.

Plus there is a huge REIT acquisition in the midst in the US by some private equity players.

It always pays to read those Company announcements, my comsec news screen is the one thing I have up all day at work....

Cheers


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