# Bottom Callers



## MR. (3 March 2009)

Is the market good value?  Picked the bottom yet?  

A list of some "experts" will make some good viewing.  We all must have a couple.
They're right ofcoarse, it's just that the market then kept falling.

To start with an easy one:

Shane Oliver's call on 13/7/08 Inside business.
*"I already think the share market in Australian and global share market's are pretty good value"  *
ALL-ORDS 5067 now 3171  near 38% loss.


http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=0WEytSTugGY&feature=channel
Jim Cramer called the bottom for the DOW at 11,600
Don harrold's calls DOW 8700 because Jim calls to go to cash.  now 6763 
Cramer near 42% loss.

.


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## Gundini (3 March 2009)

Are you serious?

No way is this the bottom....


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## CanOz (3 March 2009)

OK, i'll take a "guess"!

I say we put in a short term bottom this week!!!!

wooo hoo, that was fun....

100 RMB if I'm wrong, any takers?

CanOz


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## theasxgorilla (4 March 2009)

Value and bottom are completely different things.  Given that current state of affairs only a moron would claim "value" at this juncture.  Nobody is issuing guidance because no-one knows how bad this is going to get before it gets better.


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## MR. (4 March 2009)

Gundini said:


> Are you serious?
> 
> No way is this the bottom....






CanOz said:


> OK, i'll take a "guess"!
> 
> I say we put in a short term bottom this week!!!!
> 
> ...






theasxgorilla said:


> Given that current state of affairs only a moron would claim "value" at this juncture.




What the? 

Well that worked well.....  Not quite the response I was looking for. 

Perhaps it's the thread title? 
Perhaps these questions made my post confusing:



MR. said:


> Is the market good value?  Picked the bottom yet?




Would it help the thread if "I" responded answering No and No.... ?  

The thread was a light hearted attempt at perhaps a little humour at the expense of some expert calls.  That's it.......
Experts who have called good value and bottoms on the way down. Or perhaps an expert claiming to buy... but now with hindsight how wrong... 

My example of Shane Oliver's claim of good value back in July. Wonder how many bought from his claim?  He's on TV with perhaps a million viewers claiming that he already thinks the markets are good value.  To me he is telling people to buy. I kept the interview because at the time I thought "what planet is he on?" 

anyway.......


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## Sean K (4 March 2009)

Can't pick value when we don't know how much companies are going to lose, and for how long. pe's on current earnings are very low, and yields very high. Good value? Probably not if their profits drop by 90% this year.


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## Green08 (4 March 2009)

Bottom Callers are those women who think a size 8 is the new corset device and sit down.  You get more than a muffin top and a nasty shock!  Leaves the men and their stubbies to shame.


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## nizar (4 March 2009)

kennas said:


> Can't pick value when we don't know how much companies are going to lose, and for how long. pe's on current earnings are very low, and yields very high. Good value? Probably not if their profits drop by 90% this year.




On that note, kennas, i was reading an article on marketWatch last week sometime which said that average p/e for US markets have actually GONE UP in the last year or so because company earnings have been falling more than shareprices! 

Now isn't that a scary thought? 

And whatever happened to 10-20% "bearmarket rallies"? We must be about due for one of those? Or not...


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## Sean K (4 March 2009)

nizar said:


> On that note, kennas, i was reading an article on marketWatch last week sometime which said that average p/e for US markets have actually GONE UP in the last year or so because company earnings have been falling more than shareprices!
> 
> Now isn't that a scary thought?
> 
> And whatever happened to 10-20% "bearmarket rallies"? We must be about due for one of those? Or not...



Interesting.

Yes, should be a bearmarket rally soon you'd exect. I'm guessing more than 10-20% though. Just because it's fallen so much!


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## MR. (4 March 2009)

nizar said:


> On that note, kennas, i was reading an article on marketWatch last week sometime which said that average p/e for US markets have actually GONE UP in the last year or so because company earnings have been falling more than shareprices!




It's not bad, it's not bad, it's not bad.....  Profits will return, profits will return.......  



kennas said:


> Interesting.
> Just because it's fallen so much!



Thought so.  History this century has shown there is always that bounce. Would you think nizar's post is an example why there might be a bounce? Perhaps!
Forget the fundamentals, forget the fundamentals, forget the fundamentals.....


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## drsmith (4 March 2009)

The market rallied about 12% (daily close to daily close) from late Nov to early Jan.

My guess (and it's only a guess) is that any rally of substance will be from a starting point below 3000 on the All Ords.


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## Ageo (4 March 2009)

For me ill only be re-entering the market when it gets close to 2000 and no earlier then mid-late 2010. For me this downturn is looking at 5yrs plus i reckon but you can never be certain.


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## MR. (4 March 2009)

Ageo said:


> For me ill only be re-entering the market when it gets close to 2000 and no earlier then mid-late 2010. For me this downturn is looking at 5yrs plus i reckon but you can never be certain.




Ditto.......


I give up with this thread.  Let it fall away to the oblivion.


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## Gordon Gekko (4 March 2009)

"Two roads diverged in a yellow wood and I, I took the road less traveled by and that has made all the difference."

I won't call a bottom as there are at least a million people better qualified but I will continue to add to my position. All the money will be made in the next few years by those with the motza to buy when there's blood on the streets.
It might fall further but who cares, those that invest at or near the bottom will be rewarded.

Best of luck,
G


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## jackson8 (4 March 2009)

MR. said:


> Ditto.......
> 
> 
> I give up with this thread.  Let it fall away to the oblivion.




here is another example for you MR.
at the time dow  8078

February 03, 2009

Stock Market is Bottoming, Equities VS Gold Bullion
by Chris Ver.............




Stock market looks like it has bottomed forming a similar pattern as it did in 2003. What is the better investment during an opportunity like this if this is the bottom: Stocks, Gold Bullion or Mining Stocks?

The charts below will really open your eyes as to how similar today's W looking bottom is to the W shaped bottom in 2003. Of course 6 years later the markets trade and move faster than ever before because of technology allowing traders to track and trade stocks from anywhere with a click of a button. So this years bottom formed much quicker.

seems very easy to call the bottom but in hindsight i think it is only possible to see the bottom 3-4 months after it has happened


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## MR. (5 March 2009)

Gordon Gekko said:


> there are at least a million people better qualified




?



jackson8 said:


> here is another example for you MR.
> at the time dow  8078
> 
> February 03, 2009
> ...




Good onya Jackson8.  
Thought I had completely lost all communication skills.
Ya made me day.......
Now, to send this thread where no one will ever find it!


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## So_Cynical (5 March 2009)

I'm buying..call me anything u like.

Lotsa value around.

Fortune favors the brave.

Its the bottom for some stocks, others still to come and others already gone.


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## sammy84 (5 March 2009)

Although I'm not a professional, I called a bottom after lehman bros, luckily I was quick to realise my mistakes. And MR dont worry I understood the point of this thread


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## theasxgorilla (5 March 2009)

Keep in mind that it's not only a case of market goes up, market goes down.  There is also the volatility to contend with.  A bear market rally, recovery, correction within the correction, whatever you want to call it, might measure upteen percent from trough to peak...but can your strategy profit from it??


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## theasxgorilla (5 March 2009)

By the way MR., don't take my tone personally.  It's frustrating and disappointing to see these very dangerous authorities making claims about bottoms and outlooks and forecasts etc.  They want people to listen to them of course, or else what's their purpose in live, to be investors??? 

I'd love to see Shane Olivers portfolio.  Wonder if he has any "value" picks in "the bottom draw" from his earlier "bottom call"???  Or if his market exposure is scaled way back while he rakes in the dough from all the media appearances and books?  Either way it would be telling.


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## prawn_86 (5 March 2009)

Shane Oliver is a media *****


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## Bill M (5 March 2009)

So_Cynical said:


> I'm buying..call me anything u like.
> 
> Lotsa value around.
> 
> ...




I'm like you mate, I have no interest in short term movements of share prices. When I get my dividends come in I take out what I need to live off and the rest gets ploughed right back into the market. Even with all the dividend cuts my portfolio is producing healthy returns. I have *no need* to access my capital and for me buying stocks right now only improves my dividends even more, good luck SC.


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## gfresh (5 March 2009)

nizar said:


> On that note, kennas, i was reading an article on marketWatch last week sometime which said that average p/e for US markets have actually GONE UP in the last year or so because company earnings have been falling more than shareprices!




Close to our market, nearly all falls in price have usually equalled large drops in profit later on. Analysts decide the likely impact to profits, large institutionals sell on each internal downgrade and only buy when they think that target has been reached. While the punters are "amazed" they see they "crazy" prices shares being sold at, only to be "stunned" by a large drop in profit when it's announced. 

I don't know why it would be safe to call a bottom yet.. what says stocks just because they have fallen over 50%, cannot fall to 70/80% ?  People were saying at 30% everything was "good value", and 12 months later we're at close to 3000... Is there any logical reason we cannot be at 2000 in 12 months? Not particularly. 

If investors are true "long term" investors, it seems crazy they are not using a longer term indicator such as a long weekly MA crossing to decide 3 months later "yes, that was the bottom", and buy in appropriately.


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## nizar (5 March 2009)

gfresh said:


> If investors are true "long term" investors, it seems crazy they are not using a longer term indicator such as a long weekly MA crossing to decide 3 months later "yes, that was the bottom", and buy in appropriately.




Long term investors use TA indicators??


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## MR. (5 March 2009)

theasxgorilla said:


> By the way MR., don't take my tone personally.  It's frustrating and disappointing to see these very dangerous authorities making claims about bottoms and outlooks and forecasts etc.  They want people to listen to them of course, or else what's their purpose in live, to be investors???




Nuh wouldn't know how to take that personally.  Agree 100%. 



Gordon Gekko said:


> All the money will be made in the next few years by those with the motza to buy when there's blood on the streets.
> It might fall further but who cares, those that invest at or near the bottom will be rewarded.




Gordon Gekko, I've got some inside info'......  can't lose.........  Gunna go through da roof...........Anakut Steel   (Spelling might be wrong but look em up)

Anyway,  if you give something ago you deserve to be rewarded.


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## gfresh (5 March 2009)

nizar said:


> Long term investors use TA indicators??




Why wouldn't you at least give such an indicator a quick look now and then?  even if your major consideration was FA.


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## theasxgorilla (5 March 2009)

gfresh said:


> If investors are true "long term" investors, it seems crazy they are not using a longer term indicator such as a long weekly MA crossing to decide 3 months later "yes, that was the bottom", and buy in appropriately.




Seems crazy to who? 

When your time-frame is decades this is _lot_ better than buying up big in Oct 07.


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## theasxgorilla (5 March 2009)

gfresh said:


> Why wouldn't you at least give such an indicator a quick look now and then?  even if your major consideration was FA.




Having said that, I agree...used in combination, gotta be useful, regardless of which way you lean.


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## motorway (5 March 2009)

nizar said:


> On that note, kennas, i was reading an article on marketWatch last week sometime which said that average p/e for US markets have actually GONE UP in the last year or so because *company earnings have been falling more than shareprices! *
> Now isn't that a scary thought?
> 
> And whatever happened to 10-20% "bearmarket rallies"? We must be about due for one of those? Or not...




Have a look at THE bottom in 1932

The 12 mth subsequent  was the biggest ever up move on the DOW.

In July 1932 

Earnings and Debt
and nearly everything else
was bad and to get worse...

Yet the market went up from that point
because that was the bottom

Despite what the News and Doomsayers were saying



motorway


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## tasmart (5 March 2009)

Gordon Gekko said:


> "Two roads diverged in a yellow wood and I, I took the road less traveled by and that has made all the difference."
> 
> I won't call a bottom as there are at least a million people better qualified but I will continue to add to my position. All the money will be made in the next few years by those with the motza to buy when there's blood on the streets.
> It might fall further but who cares, those that invest at or near the bottom will be rewarded.
> ...




I actually agree with this and have been topping up for a while now in my SMSF (was previously heavily cashed up). Interestingly all my stocks except ALS & PRG are well above their 52 week lows.

Lots of blood on the streets ....... and still have cash (& more coming).

I'm not going to try to call a bottom - but on prior history the bottom of the market often co-incudes with the actualy economic declaration of a recession  - aka yesterday!


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## Beej (5 March 2009)

Ageo said:


> For me ill only be re-entering the market when it gets close to 2000 and no earlier then mid-late 2010. For me this downturn is looking at 5yrs plus i reckon but you can never be certain.




When you say "downturn" do you mean the economic downturn or the stock market down turn? While related, the 2 are also very different things.....Ie as shown you can be in the deepest depths of an economic downturn but have seen the bottom of the stock market a long time before that time.

PS: I'm not calling the bottom - I don't believe myself or anyone else can actually pick the true bottom of a market, we can only make a guess, and review with the benefit of hindsight down the track how we went.

Cheers,

Beej


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## So_Cynical (5 March 2009)

Bill M said:


> I'm like you mate, I have no interest in short term movements of share prices. When I get my dividends come in I take out what I need to live off and the rest gets ploughed right back into the market.




Hey Bill...im still keen to take short term profits when presented with the 
opportunity...but also keen to hold, get them franking credits etc.

I buy what makes sense to me and i buy with an open ended attitude and 
the ambition to build my holdings.

Ive been in some stocks for years and others for just weeks.


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## Glen48 (5 March 2009)

I think the only economist who seems to have any idea is the bloke from Access Economics Chris Reason???
There was one on ABC to night he went to Harvard, has a MBA etc who studied Off shore Oil drill in Middle USA  He has work with all the big Banks and now runs a lawn Mowing business in Albury... He looks like the Man for me his name is John Clarke.


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## Dowdy (5 March 2009)

well i was saying to my brother a few months ago it would reach '97 levels but i guess i was wrong on that bottom.

It'll probably bottom at '95 levels (3500-5000DOW)

Worst case it'll reach '91 levels (2000-3000DOW)

And where our market will go? No idea

There's always profits to be made if your cautious


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