# ASX Stock Pickers '06



## doctorj (28 December 2005)

I'm looking for people interested in participating in a competition to pick half a dozen stocks - the winner being the one that achieves the highest percent return on their portfolio over the course of next year.

The reason being, it would seem we have some very talented (or lucky) stock pickers here and I think it would be interesting to see what they have their eye on next year.  It would also be interesting to see how our new American posters fair against us on our home turf.

I would be happy to run the comp by updating a leaderboard each month (I will be overseas for feb and mar so might look for some help those months unless Joe can easily modify the existing stock comp software to automate it).  The winner would receive a pat on the back. 

If you're keen, post your 6 tips here before 1500 WST on 1/1/06.  Equal amounts will be allocated to each stock and you cannot change during the year. No post requirements to enter, but only one entry per person.

Good luck!


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## yogi-in-oz (29 December 2005)

Hi Doc,

Please include us in your pickers' list, with:

     AJL - BKP - IMU - MOG - MOS - NHE

Many thanks for your efforts ..... 

happy days

   yogi


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## woywoy (29 December 2005)

Hi Doc,

Great idea for a tipping comp!!  Let's hope there are lots of entries.  

I'm going for CEO, FRE, NMS, TOX, BCL and COE.

Good luck to all!!


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## son of baglimit (29 December 2005)

havent you got another chat room to haunt woy woy.

as always you have taken all of mine, expect bcl of course.

i am surprised you didnt include MUL.

cheerio


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## Dan_ (29 December 2005)

Here's a few wild guesses,

MOS, WEZ, LSG, CEY, RHT.....and i'll find another


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## tarnor (29 December 2005)

STX, CAZ, PRU, IMI, BTA, EMS


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## sam76 (29 December 2005)

RBY, VSG, SBM, MMN, CUE, TRG

Cheers!


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## etrader1 (29 December 2005)

Hi doc,

I'm new in the ASF but would be very interested to join in. Please include my half dozen picks:

BTA, SBM, BXP, DEG, BUY, and IRN.

Cheers!


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## brisvegas (29 December 2005)

Seeing this  is basically  a trading site i really cant see any advantage in traders making predictions 12 months out . whatever %age gain any prophet is likely to make any reasonable trader will beat hands down . certainly better gains to be made on a smaller time frame . the monthly thing is much better. fwiw 


.............. pete


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## doctorj (29 December 2005)

brisvegas said:
			
		

> Seeing this  is basically  a trading site i really cant see any advantage in traders making predictions 12 months out . whatever %age gain any prophet is likely to make any reasonable trader will beat hands down . certainly better gains to be made on a smaller time frame . the monthly thing is much better.




Ofcourse.  It means nothing.  Its meant to be a bit of harmless fun.


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## tech/a (29 December 2005)

I agree with bris.
All your doing is buy and hold for 12 mths.

Still if nothing else it will show that its a pretty stupid thing to do,particularly if the selection tanks.
Or in the case of many of these selections continues to tank.

*Now if people who select their 6 are allowed to exit their selections when they feel necessary and re enter when necessary even to buy more---in otherwords trade their selections for a year (Their selections no others),then that would be worth logging into.Say $100K trading money as initial capital,how you allocate it upto you.You have to update your portfolio each week/fortnight or Month or be disqualified.*

Biggest nett profit over the year wins.What do you think?
Why not make it some meaningful fun. I'll put up $500 as a prize to the first place getter.Any more donations?
One proviso that the winner discloses their method so we can all learn.

(Id allow entries upto the end of the first week of Jan give people sometime.)


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## Profitseeker (30 December 2005)

I would like BDG BGF CRS NWE CUO and EMS please.


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## Profitseeker (30 December 2005)

> ...each week/fortnight or Month or be disqualified.
> 
> Biggest nett profit over the year wins.What do you think?
> Why not make it some meaningful fun. I'll put up $500 as a prize to the first place getter.Any more donations?
> One proviso that the winner discloses their method so we can all learn.





WHat happens if the method is pure guess? Haha


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## Knobby22 (30 December 2005)

OK, Now I am tempted -


Chemeq - Turnaround imminent.
Woodside - Good company, new gas field to open, major exploration taking place in South America and Libya. Though price doubled over the year, I(would expect another doubling if one of the explorations work.
CSL - Still under rated by the market. Plenty of upside still.
Redflex - Kicking goals with speed cameras.
Magna Pacific - Forgotten media stock with real promise.
Bemax - The cashflow is going to be fantastic this time next year.

I would have included Oxiana however the price has run up a lot lately.

If I am going to be up against traders then I want taxes and trading fees included in the equation assuming the average Aussie wage. Also they must announce their trades on the end of the day price. I will probably make two trades max. Also dividends are included.

This could be interesting.


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## tech/a (30 December 2005)

Profitseeker said:
			
		

> WHat happens if the method is pure guess? Haha




Guess is fine.

As a suggestion for simple rules.
(1) $50K starting Capital.
(2) All trades either in our out to be posted within the day of the buy or sell.
(3) All prices for entry and exit to be End of Day.
(4) All in the comp to keep and publish here their portfolio updated weekly or face disqualification.
(5) Maximum 5 stocks traded at any one time.Stocks only.You dont have to trade 5 you could trade 1 X $50K.
(6) You can buy sell hold or stay out of the market whenever you wish.
(7) Start date for the $500 comp plus any other donations (Perhaps second/third) 10/01/06
(8) Cheating disqualified (Ie Entering false buy and sell data.)
(9) Winners to disclose method so all can learn.
(10) Comp closes 1st trading day after Xmas 2006 EOD.
(11) Winner is the one with most capital less initial capital/ less fees set at $30 in $30 out for all.Dividends NOT included.
(12) No leverage or options/warrents.

Anything I have missed.
If there are less than 15 starters comp doesnt go ahead.

*Doc I'm not trying to Hi jack your idea but for there to be any meaning I cant see the point in buy and hold only?
Anyway if the offer is seen as out of line then I'll bugger off.*


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## Profitseeker (30 December 2005)

I like it.


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## brisvegas (30 December 2005)

now is it going to be allowable to short sell as well as go long . if so would it only be allowable to short sell top200 stocks . also need to clarify liquidity ie: sufficient volume at said prices to actually get a fill in realtime. can we set a target beforehand that if traded at with enough volume becomes an accepted trade rather than only taking  closing prices . also in regards to declaring trade a deadline is required as hindsite trading of dual listed stocks could occur , especially those dual listed on LSE re BHP RIO HDR etc etc . also in regards to showing people methodology , is the requirement to do so ongoing through year or will a rundown at years end be enough . whilst im willing to give a rough idea of what i do im certainly not willing to lay it all on the line , for every edge a trader can get it needs to be maintained to a degree . this is an interesting concept but by the nature of it the possibility of it becoming cumbersome and time consuming for the one or ones adjudicating is there . one last question is will be listed company options be allowed . lets see what happens 

............ pete


one last thing i forgot is the use of stop losses , will they be accepted as long as stated at entry as i trade with a stop most of the time


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## RichKid (30 December 2005)

This seems to be getting complicated, I thought the idea was just to pick six, forget em and then check at the end of the year, just because this is a forum comprised mainly of traders it doesn't mean that investors can't try their hand, some of us have long term (investor style) portfolios as well. Also rather than having ppl update every week or month it'll be easier to have a simple table as I assume doc was about to provide. doc, since you started this it'll be good to see what you agree on as otherwise ppl will be confused about the entry deadline and rules.


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## tech/a (30 December 2005)

Yes I agree if its complicated then it loses the fun factor.
Much better if its simple.

How about just being able to trade the 5 stocks that we originally pick,long only.
Also we can have then the same as what someone else picks,as we would all trade differently.

Entry and exit is Open and Close ONLY.

If you think that this is to hard just go back to Doc's original idea.
I'll still put up the $$s


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## sam76 (30 December 2005)

RichKid said:
			
		

> This seems to be getting complicated, I thought the idea was just to pick six, forget em and then check at the end of the year, just because this is a forum comprised mainly of traders it doesn't mean that investors can't try their hand, some of us have long term (investor style) portfolios as well. Also rather than having ppl update every week or month it'll be easier to have a simple table as I assume doc was about to provide. doc, since you started this it'll be good to see what you agree on as otherwise ppl will be confused about the entry deadline and rules.





I like the original idea. A lot of us "investors" can't monitor/change on a weekly basis.

I'm not adverse to Tech's idea as well.

What about having two comps?


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## doctorj (30 December 2005)

I agree with everything that's been said.  Picking six stocks for a buy and hold over the course of the year isn't a useful metric for decided who the best traders are.  It was never meant to be that though.  It was intended to be a bit of fun where we could all take a stab at what was going to be the next big thing without any great time commitment to take more out of our busy schedules.

That and I don't have the time to manage any of the more complicated trading games you suggest.  As it is, I'd have to ask someone to update the results for the months of feb and mar (and potentially april).

If someone is willing to volunteer their time for a more complex comeptition, I'm fine with that.  And ofcourse there's no reason why two competitions can run in parrallel if you're volunteering Tech, I'd still be happy to run my 'low tech' comp.


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## tech/a (30 December 2005)

Doc
Im happy for it to run but I dont wish to record results.
Thats why I made it upto the individual.
Anyway looks like way less than enough people are interested so Just go with yours.
In future if someone could come up with the software maybe it would be worth thinking about.

May go a way to proving how many can trade profitably in a year.

Even buy and hold 6 stocks as you suggest I reckon that less than 20% are in profit at the end of a year with their 6 stocks.

You can pick any 6 even those that someone else has picked cant you?


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## doctorj (30 December 2005)

> You can pick any 6 even those that someone else has picked cant you?



Don't see why not.

*Rules:
1. You must pick 6 stocks listed on the ASX.
2. One entry per person.  There are no minimum post requirements.
3. Your entry must be submitted by 1500 WST on 1/1/06.
4. You may pick stocks even if someone else has selected them.
5. Results will be calculated based upon equal proportions in each of your six stocks using closing prices for CY '05.  Interim results will be published at the end of each month with the winner being the person with the highest % gain on their "portfolio" using the last traded price during CY '06.
6. The winner will receive an exclusive congratualatory post from myself.*

I notice Nick has looked at someone's tips over on Reefcap.  It'll be interesting to see what he picks.


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## brisvegas (30 December 2005)

ok i'll have a go at the investment game here . thing is the stocks i pick here i wouldnt neccessarily buy at open on tuesday .i actually hold most of these just a tad cheaper than what they are now .  picking these on fundementals more than anything with one fully spec thrown in 

PEM
HDR
FLX
GUN
ARQ
AGS

no diversification there , all resources . certainly wouldnt have whole portfolio that way but after all this is just for fun . cant see the energy issue going away . Zinc has great fundementals going forwards to rise . GUN has a couple very good prospects on the go , funding issues may weaken them at some stage . AGS is just a straight out uranium punt  . was hard to leave a couple of my fave resources out but 6 is the limit



also being investment game here we have to include divs with franking ok


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## Julia (30 December 2005)

doctorj said:
			
		

> Don't see why not.
> 
> *Rules:
> 1. You must pick 6 stocks listed on the ASX.
> ...




Hi Doc,

Is the result to be calculated just on capital growth over the 12 months, or does it include dividends?  What about franking credits?

Could you ever have imagined that your apparently simple fun suggestion could become so complicated??!!

It's a great idea and gives those of us who are buy and hold investors a chance to possibly participate.  Thanks for the idea.

Julia


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## doctorj (30 December 2005)

I'll just keep my mouth shut next time


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## Dan_ (31 December 2005)

Dan_ said:
			
		

> Here's a few wild guesses,
> 
> MOS, WEZ, LSG, CEY, RHT.....and i'll find another




Add CSL thanks 

All guesses at best


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## tech/a (31 December 2005)

doctorj said:
			
		

> I notice Nick has looked at someone's tips over on Reefcap.  It'll be interesting to see what he picks.




Doubt that he would make a selection.He was making an observation.
Its not what you'd do in realtime investing.
If a stop was hit or an exit taken out you wouldnt be still holding the majority in 12 mths.
To maximise your return you'd have to be able to atleast sell a position that turns against you and exit a position that has made profit and turns against you,according to a proven trading methodolgy.

*Unfortunately buy and hope is the way of most traders and while the competition maybe fun it certaintly isnt fostering sound trading/investment
habits.*


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## brisvegas (31 December 2005)

tech/a said:
			
		

> Doubt that he would make a selection.He was making an observation.
> Its not what you'd do in realtime investing.
> If a stop was hit or an exit taken out you wouldnt be still holding the majority in 12 mths.
> To maximise your return you'd have to be able to atleast sell a position that turns against you and exit a position that has made profit and turns against you,according to a proven trading methodolgy.
> ...





tech is dead right here and just to clarify there is near enough to no chance id hold the stocks i have selected for a whole year . i would use stop losses and an exit strategy . i spent approximately 10 minutes selecting that list of stocks and picked ones that i had prior knowledge about as i are or have traded them previously . HDR is the one im likely to hold the longest  fwiw . i selected  resource stocks as i firmly believe that is a sector that will continue to perform for a couple years yet but to stay firmly ahead in this game your thinking needs to be dynamic . so my opinion could change if circumstances on the world stage change . in reality if i was to do a portfolio like this i would certainly diversify it with a few sectors involved and a couple decent dividend yielders in there . pity we arent doing the trading thing as it would have served more of a useful purpose . maybe if a trading type scenario was done where you trade only 1 stock . it would be easier to do and for the sake of the exersize acheive the same objective . anyway have a happy near year all . see you in a year

.......................... pete


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## Nick Radge (31 December 2005)

My point elsewhere was the psychology behind the first selection becuase I think 4 of the stocks were -60% or more over the last 12-months. The thinking behind that selection probably had more to do with the individuals mindset.

I guess if I had to vote, then this would be them:

MND, JBM, WTP, SDG, OMP. MXI

There is a pattern to those. See if you can't figure it out 

Good luck though!

Nick

_This post may contain advice that has been prepared by Reef Capital Coaching ABN 24 092 309 978 (“RCC”) and is general advice and does not take account of your objectives, financial situation or needs. Before acting on this general advice you should therefore consider the appropriateness of the advice having regard to your situation. We recommend you obtain financial, legal and taxation advice before making any financial investment decision.

Past performance is not a reliable indication of future performance. This material has been prepared based on information believed to be accurate at the time of publication. Subsequent changes in circumstances may occur at any time and may impact the accuracy of the information._


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## tech/a (31 December 2005)

JBM
MRL
DOW
KZL
ETR
PNO

Scientifically technically selected using the RisingSun Monthly "Bang for Buck"
combination longterm method which will be disclosed upon winning the comp


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## RichKid (31 December 2005)

OK, I'll pick:

OST, BMX, SGX, WOW, SEK, WPL

Okay, that'll do for now, I expect all to pull back a bit or significantly in the next few months before getting on with it, I haven't done any real research into these picks, just ones I'm watching or holding.

Also, if people pick an identical portfolio I suggest that if they win then the winner should be the one who submitted his picks first.


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## Stan 101 (31 December 2005)

hi, this looks like fun, I'm going to go with 5 real speccies..and a hmmms.
ANM, DLS, MRX, PEP, WEB, OST


All the best for the new year.


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## brerwallabi (31 December 2005)

OK I'll take the following
AUZ
CMX
SBS
IGR
PEM
KZL
At the momment I hold three but might not neccessarily be holding them at the end of January even. I possibly might trade in and out of these a few times during the year. To hold something for 12 months is a longtime and when a stock may drop 20% or more and then come back and retrace again and comeback again, you get my point Doc I don't want to be holding when its down 20%. See how I go with these. You could probably out do me by year end with your picks, being an "investor" but I could have more money in the bank through frequent trades.
Anyway each to their own and good luck.
PS maybe I should have picked 6 bluechips


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## dutchie (31 December 2005)

G'day Doc,

Interesting little exercise.

Each person could perhaps trade their selections on their own in the way they would normally (buy/sell) and compare to holding for one year (trading costs would have to be taken into account). At end of year report comparisons to forum.

My selections are:   BHP, CRS, CSL, PEP, WPL, ZFX.

Good luck everyone.


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## RichKid (31 December 2005)

Stan 101 said:
			
		

> hi, this looks like fun, I'm going to go with 5 real speccies..and a hmmms.
> ANM, DLS, MRX, PEP, WEB, OST, VCR
> 
> 
> All the best for the new year.




That's seven you've got there, which would you like to drop?


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## tech/a (31 December 2005)

dutchie said:
			
		

> G'day Doc,
> 
> Interesting little exercise.
> 
> ...




Was going to do that.
I still have the october stock picks in various portfolios and keeping it up dated.


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## brerwallabi (31 December 2005)

Its a pity a sponser could not come forward and give us a signon amd access to watchlists that they could set up for us free of charge on their websites, I am sure it would then attract more entrants and would work postively for the sponsers. Its one for Joe I think.


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## pete152 (31 December 2005)

Well I will have a shot with BOQ, BHP, ALZ, BBI and of course a roughy to bring the odds up OCO
(Do not laugh at OCO the pooor thing!!)
Happy New Year to all
Cheers,
Peter


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## Stan 101 (31 December 2005)

RichKid said:
			
		

> That's seven you've got there, which would you like to drop?




sorry rich kid... Really my accounting records are great   .

I'll drop vcr


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## Julia (31 December 2005)

Before choosing, I'd have liked an answer to my question as to whether dividends ( and franking credits) are included?

However, on assumption they are, my picks are:

EXL   MBL   UTB   SDG   SUN  WOW


Julia

(It was a toss up between UTB and ANZ)


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## doctorj (31 December 2005)

I thought you were kidding 

How bout we compromise and include the dividends but not the franking - saves the calculator work!


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## dutchie (1 January 2006)

Doc, 

I suggest you keep it simple and just run it like an extension of the monthly comp. No div's etc.  (I, and I think others, made selections not allowing for div's/franking etc)

Maybe you could display the running results at the end of each month (if its not too much work).

Each entrant, if so inclined, could compare the buy and hold of the comp. to more active trading of the shares selected.

For those interested in doing a comparison.

Start the year by buying $10,000 worth of each share at opening price (3rd Jan 06) - (i.e. initial capital is $60,000).
Buy and sell that initial parcel at will - cost of trading - $30 in/$30 out.
Can't transfer capital from one share to another.
Assume 5% interest obtained on any capital not in market.
Any realised profits/dividends can be reinvested in each individual share (dividends obtained on specified dates).
If so inclined, post your trades.

Note:Could be a fair bit of work actively trading six shares for a year!  

Hope I'm not out of line here Doc.


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## sam76 (1 January 2006)

90% of the mum and dad investors buy a stock to keep for what ever reason (give to the grand kids, rainy day, long term growth etc...)

BUT MOST OF THEM KEEP THEIR HOLDINGS FOR AT LEAST A YEAR TO AVOID CGT!

Granted this is a predominantly trading website and many traders might not agree with the above system (and they are right to disagree), but why dont we just keep it simple?

Buy the stocks and forget about them until the end of the year.


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## sam76 (1 January 2006)

Ooops,

HAPPY NEW YEAR!


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## RichKid (1 January 2006)

Stan 101 said:
			
		

> sorry rich kid... Really my accounting records are great   .
> 
> I'll drop vcr




No probs, I've deleted VCR from your original post. Hope your selection wins it for you! Not long to go before the start...


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## Julia (1 January 2006)

doctorj said:
			
		

> I thought you were kidding
> 
> How bout we compromise and include the dividends but not the franking - saves the calculator work!




Hi Doc,

Yes, fine with me.  I think dividends should be included as that's one of the things longer term investors look for when choosing a stock.

With thanks

Julia


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## doctorj (1 January 2006)

To appease the bears, dividends will be included but not franking.

My picks are:
FAR, CRL, NWE (going to be a 5-10bagger, or bust!), HDR, VPE, MAL (too bad about the last 2 days).

Entries will be extended until 1500WST, tomorrow 2/1/06.


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## chansw (1 January 2006)

Hi Doc,

Please include my picks

CML, BTA, SBM, WPL, VPG, DVC

Thanks.


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## son of baglimit (1 January 2006)

so let me see, it includes divs, not frankings, it includes ongoing trades, or not, it includes yet to be floated coy's, or not, oh now i am real confused.

just gimme NMS, CEO, HSN, FRE, ZCO, VCR

CAN MY DOG ENTER TOO ?


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## bvbfan (2 January 2006)

Been away on holidays and only just saw this, hope you can still accept my tips if not oh well

Anyway I like ADY, AOE, PNA, AIM, COE and CMR


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## BraceFace (2 January 2006)

Hope I'm not to late.
SMY
PSD
HDR
CUY
FUN
DVC

Keep up the good work Doc.


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## Porper (2 January 2006)

Ok, I wasn't going to bother as it isn't how I trade/invest, but as it is for fun here are my six picks.

All speccies in an uptrend so nothing in it more than that, I don't even know what some of these companies do.

MGR
TFE
TAM
TGF
FCN
JUM

If Gold tanks I will be last


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## son of baglimit (2 January 2006)

dont feel bad porper - u spent heaps on nms without knowing what they did & still made $$$


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## Stan 101 (2 January 2006)

cancel me. I picked rough speccies as we were told no dividends count..


Good luck..


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## tech/a (2 January 2006)

Dividends will count for very little in the final washup around 5% max/share if all pay dividends so on an individual basis less than 1%.


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## doctorj (2 January 2006)

Please check that I have you down for the correct tickers and that their close price from Friday is correct.  Apologies for the formatting - I've been slack and pasted the spreadsheet.

Any stragglers are welcome to enter until 1500WST.

Yogi-in-oz	AJL	$0.850
	BKP	$0.280
	IMU	$0.185
	MOG	$0.088
	MOS	$0.170
	NHE	$0.155


woywoy	BCL	$0.310
	CEO	$0.220
	COE	$0.545
	FRE	$0.450
	NMS	$0.415
	TOX	$0.105


Dan_	CEY	$3.820
	CSL	$42.500
	LSG	$2.210
	MOS	$0.170
	RHT	$0.105
	WEZ	$0.145


sam76	CUE	$0.215
	MMN	$0.255
	RBY	$0.037
	SBM	$0.390
	TRG	$12.850
	VSG	$0.021


etrader1	BTA	$1.475
	BUY	$0.089
	BXP	$0.220
	DEG	$0.190
	IRN	$0.610
	SBM	$0.390


Profitseeker	BDG	$1.650
	BGF	$0.390
	CRS	$0.355
	CUO	$0.020
	EMS	$0.125
	NWE	$0.155

Knobby22	BMX	$0.300
	CMQ	$0.690
	CSL	$42.500
	MPH	$0.420
	RDF	$3.040
	WPL	$39.190


brisvegas	AGS	$0.175
	ARQ	$1.750
	GUN	$0.375
	FLX	$2.360
	HDR	$1.740
	PEM	$0.990


Nick Radge	JBM	$7.520
	MND	$4.740
	MXI	$0.800
	OMP	$3.390
	SDG	$1.640
	WTP	$1.970


Tech/A	DOW	$7.180
	ETR	$2.570
	JBM	$7.520
	KZL	$2.280
	MRL	$1.240
	PNO	$0.047


Richkid	BMX	$0.300
	OST	$3.350
	SEK	$3.020
	SGX	$3.500
	WOW	$16.850
	WPL	$39.190


Stan 101	ANM	$0.320
	DLS	$0.072
	MRX	$0.055
	OST	$3.350
	PEP	$0.675
	WEB	$0.390


brerawallabi	AUZ	$0.017
	CMX	$0.190
	IGR	$0.145
	KZL	$2.280
	PEM	$0.990
	SBS	$0.068


dutchie	BHP	$22.750
	CRS	$0.355
	CSL	$42.500
	PEP	$0.675
	WPL	$39.190
	ZFX	$6.880


pete152	ALZ	$2.070
	BBI	$1.620
	BHP	$22.750
	BOQ	$14.750
	OCO	$0.016
	SEN	$0.780


Julia	EXL	$6.380
	MBL	$68.150
	SDG	$1.640
	SUN	$20.050
	UTB	$13.590
	WOW	$16.850


doctorj	CRL	$0.079
	FAR	$0.120
	HDR	$1.740
	MAL	$0.595
	NWE	$0.155
	VPE	$0.029


chansw	BTA	$1.475
	CML	$10.210
	DVC	$3.980
	SBM	$0.390
	VPG	$1.350
	WPL	$39.190


son of baglimit	CEO	$0.220
	FRE	$0.450
	HSN	$0.185
	NMS	$0.415
	VCR	$1.115
	ZCO	$0.115


tarnor	BTA	$1.475
	CAZ	$1.795
	EMS	$0.125
	IMI	$0.021
	PRU	$0.400
	STX	$0.185


bvbfan	ADY	$0.110
	AIM	$0.062
	AOE	$0.690
	CMR	$1.410
	COE	$0.545
	PNA	$0.210


braceface	CUY	$0.435
	DVC	$3.980
	HDR	$1.740
	FUN	$1.730
	PSD	$0.710
	SMY	$0.685


Porper	FCN	$0.505
	JUM	$0.075
	MGR	$4.120
	TAM	$0.175
	TFE	$0.375
	TGF	$0.270


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## Julia (2 January 2006)

Confirm mine, thanks.

Julia


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## Dan_ (3 January 2006)

All Correct,

Thanks Doc


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## RichKid (4 January 2006)

All prices are correct for my picks too- thanks Doc!


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## woywoy (4 January 2006)

Thanks Doc.  Mine are correct too.

Personally I think you should drop the dividends.  This is just meant to be a bit of fun to see who can pick the stocks with the biggest gain in the year.

Really, how many of the picks are paying dividends anyway.  

Good luck to all..  Should be a bit of fun.


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## son of baglimit (4 January 2006)

how can you say this is a 'bit of fun' woywoy - YOU OWN SUBSTANTIAL AMOUNTS OF ALL THESE STOCKS - unless you win the comp with some triple figure % increase, you'll never be able to afford the plastic surgery !!

do all of your stocks have attached 'o's ??


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## yogi-in-oz (4 January 2006)

Looking good from here too, Doc ..... 

many thanks

 yogi


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## sam76 (4 January 2006)

all good here as well, thanks.


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## pete152 (4 January 2006)

Fine , thanks Doc.
Peter


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## chansw (4 January 2006)

All correct, Doc.

Many Thanks.


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## happytrader (5 January 2006)

brisvegas said:
			
		

> Seeing this  is basically  a trading site i really cant see any advantage in traders making predictions 12 months out . whatever %age gain any prophet is likely to make any reasonable trader will beat hands down . certainly better gains to be made on a smaller time frame . the monthly thing is much better. fwiw
> 
> 
> .............. pete




Hi Brisvegas 

This sounds like fun and would not take much time or effort. I would be interested if anyone else is.

Cheers
Happytrader


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## doctorj (7 January 2006)

After the first week, only 3 of 21 entries have a negative return with etrader1 the early leader.


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## tarnor (7 January 2006)

*cough* something looks broken there to me, u sure its right hehe


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## doctorj (7 January 2006)

Wouldn't suprise me


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## sam76 (7 January 2006)

tarnor said:
			
		

> *cough* something looks broken there to me, u sure its right hehe




All looks good from here!  :


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## tech/a (7 January 2006)

Just for the record I would have exited ETR on stop at $2.27.


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## Bobby (7 January 2006)

tech/a said:
			
		

> Just for the record I would have exited ETR on stop at $2.27.




Hi Tech, 
Good to see your out of ETR for now  .

But what intrigues me is PNO, care to comment on this one as Iv'e drawn the gun but have yet to pull the trigger. :sheep:

Cheers Bob.


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## BraceFace (7 January 2006)

Hey Doc,

I can't see my name on the list   
Am I performing that badly I dont even rate a mention  : 

Just checking


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## BraceFace (7 January 2006)

braceface	CUY	$0.435
	DVC	$3.980
	HDR	$1.740
	FUN	$1.730
	PSD	$0.710
	SMY	$0.685

Just for the record....


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## doctorj (7 January 2006)

My bad.  You were in there, but for some reason my macro ignored you 

Fixed the bug - you're up 0.54%.


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## RichKid (7 January 2006)

doctorj said:
			
		

> After the first week, only 3 of 21 entries have a negative return with etrader1 the early leader.




Thanks for the leaderboard Doc, very clear.


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## doctorj (25 January 2006)

I'm updating this today with the view of it being the second last update I'll provide before I leave in early Feb as I'm yet to talk anyone else into it. If that remains the case, after Feb 6 it won't be updated again until mid April.

Congratulations to brerawallabi and woywoy who are leading the charge!

Of the 109 different stocks selected, 64 (58.7%) are up, 39 (35.7%) are down and 6 (5.5%) are unchanged.

The *10 best* performing stocks selected in the comp are:
FRE (104.4%), CRL (102.5%), PEM (79.8%), NMS (51.8%), CMX (47.4%), WEZ (41.4%), TOX (38.1%), SBS (36.8%), AUZ (29.4%), AGS (28.6%).

The *10 worst* performing stocks are:
NWE (-42.6%), BUY (-32.6%), FCN (-17.8%), CAZ (-17.6%), MOG (-17.0%), HSN (-13.5%), RHT (-13.3%), MMN (-11.8%), VCR (-11.7%), ETR (-10.9%).

So far I have the dubious honour of having tipped the second best and very worst stocks in the comp.

On average we're not too bad at stock picking here at ASF.  In the time this comp has been running the All Ords have put on *2.19%* and if you had invested equally in each and every stock tipped you would be sitting on a *7.54%* unrealised return.


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## sam76 (25 January 2006)

Cheers Doc.

Appreciate the effort 

I don't know the first thing about spread sheets etc, otherwise I'd volunteer.

Good luck on you trip!

Sam


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## son of baglimit (25 January 2006)

oh the shame - only running 3rd - and behind woywoy - how embarrassment !!!!!!


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## Porper (26 January 2006)

doctorj said:
			
		

> I'm updating this today with the view of it being the second last update I'll provide before I leave in early Feb as I'm yet to talk anyone else into it. If that remains the case, after Feb 6 it won't be updated again until mid April.
> 
> Congratulations to brerawallabi and woywoy who are leading the charge!
> 
> ...





Hello Doc,

I know I am doing badly but my picks will come good, so please put me in the comp


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## doctorj (26 January 2006)

Sorry, didn't shoot the whole list 

You're sitting on -5.93%


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## BraceFace (26 January 2006)

arrggg!!!!!
Talk about hanging out your dirty washing.


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## Dan_ (26 January 2006)

Doc,

If you send me a copy of the spreadsheet I will be able to update it mid march. I’ll be away from mid Feb. to mid March back for a few weeks and then gone most of April.

Unless someone can be here the whole time and update?


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## yogi-in-oz (27 January 2006)

Hi Doc,

Send a copy of your spreadsheet and we'll give it a go,
until you get back ..... 

Just hope and pray, that we don't mess it up for you ..... !~!

happy days

  yogi


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## brisvegas (31 January 2006)

brisvegas said:
			
		

> ok i'll have a go at the investment game here . thing is the stocks i pick here i wouldnt neccessarily buy at open on tuesday .i actually hold most of these just a tad cheaper than what they are now .  picking these on fundementals more than anything with one fully spec thrown in
> 
> PEM
> HDR
> ...





Maybe i should invest more often . if i had bought $10k of each of these for a total outlay of $60k i would be doing pretty well as an investor with the profit showing over $18k in one month  , obviously cant keep up this performance so would expect a couple down months from here .


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## canny (31 January 2006)

I missed the posts on the comp over late December - damn - I enjoy all these things and would have loved to join.
Never mind.


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## doctorj (4 February 2006)

Yogi, thanks for your offer.  I will get in touch with you some time today.

I'm updating this today as I actually leave on Monday (woops!).

Congrats again go to brerawallabi and woywoy who are still leading the charge.

Of the 109 different stocks selected, 58.7% (64) of the stocks are up, 40 (36.7%) of the stocks are down and 4.6% (5) are unchanged.

The *10 best *performing stocks so far are:
PEM (102%), FRE (87%), NMS (76%), CRL (71%), WEZ (66%), STX (57%), SBS (54%), AGS (54%), AUZ (47%), BMX (40%).

The *10 worst* performing stocks so far are:
NWE (-37%), BUY (-35%), VCR (-19%), TGF (-17%), PSD (-16%), IMI (-14%), MPH (-14%), CAZ (-14%), CRS (-14%).


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## woywoy (4 February 2006)

Go Woy Woy!!

Sorry Baglimit.  Must be hard to accept that you are being beaten by such an amateur like myself!!

Better luck next year.  Concede defeat yet?  

And to think the one I thought would do the best out of those picks (CEO) hasn't moved yet.  It's gonna be a great year!!!


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## son of baglimit (4 February 2006)

you are a smug bastard woy woy - be careful or i might demand my 'compensayshun' again !!!

sorry folks - inside joke.

how many did we tip different - just 1 or 2 i think - might come down to COE vs HSN - i know where my money is !!!!!!!!!!!!


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## brisvegas (5 February 2006)

doctorj said:
			
		

> Yogi, thanks for your offer.  I will get in touch with you some time today.
> 
> I'm updating this today as I actually leave on Monday (woops!).
> 
> ...





think your figures are out a tad doc , i havent done the figures for others but my portfolio is up over 25% . 


............... pete


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## doctorj (5 February 2006)

Well, don't I feel like the horse's ass.  Just goes to show that you should thoroughly test something somewhere between chucking it together and making the output publically available.

Thanks for giving me the heads up.  Managed to find the error relatively easily.  Here's the *hopefully* fixed version.  If anyone finds any other problems, smack me around and then let me know


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## woywoy (9 March 2006)

Anyone keeping this up to date?  I know doc is O/S, but I thought someone had volunteered to take on the arduous task.  

Not that it bothers me, because I doubt I would still be near the top, but would be curious to see how it's all going after a couple of months.


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## doctorj (13 March 2006)

Hey all!

I think Yogi volunteered, but I don't think I successfully sent him the spreadsheet.  I'm in Zakopane at the moment and due home in approx 5-6 weeks.  I'll be able to update it then - its a year long competition... no rush I spose.

For the record, if you're ever in Poland, skip Warsaw, head to the real heart of Poland (Krakow) and once you're done there hit the slopes in Zakopane.  I can't recommend it highly enough.  Anyway, gotta run - off to Prague tonight.

Brad


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## pacer (14 March 2006)

BBI today announced big profits compared to last year, stock proce not risen much yet..........Jump on now or not.


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## brisvegas (1 May 2006)

50% plus in 4 months . FLX in coal looks weak going forward short term with coal price downgrading . ARQ has just completed 3 wave correction and looks set for move over 2.00 now so could be next mover in portfolio . GUN has completed similar move but needs close over 35 to become confident . HDR getting traction and the other 2 are star performers 

........... bris


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## yogi-in-oz (17 May 2006)

Hi Doc,

When you do get back, please note:

NHE has had a name change to GLX and will relist
on 18 May 2006, with a consolidation of 1.96:1, 
so the price should effectively double, when it is
re-listed.

Many thanks for your help.

happy days

  yogi


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## doctorj (30 May 2006)

I'm alive guys!

Unfortunately, it took a new PC to do it and I cannot recover the old documents.  Hopefully over the next few days I'll be able to provide an updated leaderboard.  Nearly a month in, it'll be rather interesting.

If people could do me a favour and check to see if there companies (or companies of other participants) have made any distributions or split etc and post in reply to this thread.  

Much appreciated,
Brad


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## RichKid (31 May 2006)

doctorj said:
			
		

> I'm alive guys!
> 
> Unfortunately, it took a new PC to do it and I cannot recover the old documents.  Hopefully over the next few days I'll be able to provide an updated leaderboard.  Nearly a month in, it'll be rather interesting.
> 
> ...




Glad to hear it Doc, Welcome back! have to say I forgot about this thread, I think my stocks are ok re splits etc, just div's only. I'll add the div amounts (gross payments only I assume, no franking credits?) to this thread. Hope the PC disaster wasn't too bad. This is the post which had our picks: https://www.aussiestockforums.com/forums/showpost.php?p=28005&postcount=57


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## Nicks (31 May 2006)

SRK, AVO, GAS, TOL, AFI, ENR


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## brisvegas (5 August 2006)

brisvegas said:
			
		

> 50% plus in 4 months . FLX in coal looks weak going forward short term with coal price downgrading . ARQ has just completed 3 wave correction and looks set for move over 2.00 now so could be next mover in portfolio . GUN has completed similar move but needs close over 35 to become confident . HDR getting traction and the other 2 are star performers
> 
> ........... bris





hasnt really moved in a couple months but at a guess id say she is about to kick up ... wish my super fund could perform like this  

............. bris


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## brisvegas (21 August 2006)

brisvegas said:
			
		

> hasnt really moved in a couple months but at a guess id say she is about to kick up ... wish my super fund could perform like this
> 
> ............. bris




and kick up she has . up 75% ytd with over 4 months to go  . 100% looks odds on

........................ bris


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## brisvegas (31 August 2006)

brisvegas said:
			
		

> and kick up she has . up 75% ytd with over 4 months to go  . 100% looks odds on
> 
> ........................ bris





and odds on it was , cracked 100% return inside 9 months . AGS the biggy but PEM has done well also and FLX getting traction . if some of the others can perform 150 aint out of the question although GUN is a lost cause it would seem . maybe next year for GUN


................ bris


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## brerwallabi (31 August 2006)

Breathing down your neck, nice pick ups Bris


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## brisvegas (27 October 2006)

2 months on and the portfolio still performing with 130% gains up now . decent jorc on AGS and might have a 10 bagger in there

................ bris


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## ak98 (30 October 2006)

Dont you mean b4 1/1/07?


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## brisvegas (23 November 2006)

hit the magic 200% ytd mark today . got to be happy with that


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## Miner (6 December 2007)

*Re: WTP : ASX Stock Pickers '07-08*

Any one to share on WTP ? Bell has recommended as buy, the share has gone up to $5 from $4.84 after victorian acquisition and there was another broker who recommended it as buy on 3 Dec.

There was no posting on it apparently for last two years.

Any comment please

Regards


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