# Gold Stocks Information and Comparison



## Parag0n (12 September 2007)

With gold continuing its rise up I have seen a major increase in threads regarding gold stocks, I have decided to put together a small compilation with a write up.

I hold interests in most of these companies and continue to do so while the outlook for gold is bullish. If you choose to invest in any of these company's you do so at your own risk.

*----------------------------
Major - Large Producers:*
*
Newcrest Mining Limited - NCM
Market Cap: $8.3 Billion *
Australia's largest gold producer, has a portfolio of mines located in Australia and Indonesia, recently announced that it is going to eliminate it's entire hedge book with a couple of billion worth of capital raising.

*Oxiana Limited - OXR
Market Cap: $5.1 Billion*
While primarily not a gold producer and more of a diversified minerals miner Oxiana does have a decent exposure to gold mining with production of around 200,000 ounces in 2006 and gold mines in Laos.

*Lihir Gold Limited - LGL
Market Cap: $6.4 Billion*
Located in P.N.G. Lihir Island, has recently reduced power costs significantly by tapping into geothermal activity to provide power for milling and other operations, has a resource estimate of 40 million ounces.

*Newmont Mining Corporation - NEM
Market Cap: $19.1 Billion USD (NYSE)*
One of the worlds largest producers, managed to mill out  almost a massive 6,000,000 ounces of gold last year. Has operations all around the world with 70% of its gold mined in the Americas.

*Sino Gold Mining Limited - SGX
Market Cap: $1.1 Billion*
One of Chinas largest gold producers with a relatively low cost per ounce of gold mined, operates the Jinfeng mine in China.

*----------------------------

Mid - Minor Producers / Speculative:

Oceana Gold Corporation - OGC
Market Cap: $562 Million*
Has a large gold resource base to work with and announced a very aggressive producing strategy with aims to be producing half a million ounces of gold annually by 2009.

*St Barbara Limited - SBM
Market Cap: $448 Million*
Operates the Gwalia Deeps mine, anyone who subscribed to the Rivkin report will remember this mine. (Sons of Gwalia). Work has already begun preparing for a continued underground mining operation.
*
Citigold Corporation Limited - CTO
Market Cap: $273 Million*
Recently received state funding for it's continued deep underground drilling program which includes a 2000 metre underground exploration program searching for gold grades in the Charters Towers mine.

*Dioro Exploration NL - DIO
Market Cap: $96 Million*
49% owner of the frogs leg mine in WA. Has an extremely aggressive growth strategy planned including listing on the TSX and recently splitting its nickel assets into splinter company with scrip offer. Also has a JV with CVRD Brazil to explore Uranium tenaments.
*
Mundo Minerals Limited - MUN
Market Cap: N/A*
Mundo is just starting out operations in South America, anybody who subscribes to Fat Prophets Mining should be aware of this company and it's high grade intercepts on tenements.

*Lion Selection Limited - LST
Market Cap: N/A*
Lion Selection is an investment group formed recently due to a merger and has significant investments in gold assets all across Australia and the world. It's primary form of investment is shares in mid cap producers and exploration stock.

I hope this has helped.


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## So_Cynical (12 September 2007)

*Re: Information regarding Gold Stocks*

Troy Resources *TRY* is another producer going well...ive only been
holding for 7 weeks...and up over 25% 

Troy is totally unhedged.


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## Sean K (13 September 2007)

*Gold stock comparison*

I've started doing a comparison of gold stocks to see how they rate market cap to au equiv and have the list compiled below.

I actually started it to compare BSG to KMN based on their gold projects and thought I'd throw in the others for comparison.

Has anyone got any other goldies to compare for value? If so, please provide shares on issue and current resource estimate and I'll include it in the chart. 

They need to be seperated into producer and developer I think, and only JORC'd numbers used for clarrity.

If there are errors in this list, which I'm sure there are, please update me.

Any takers?


(holding NCM, LHG, KMN)


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## Nicks (13 September 2007)

*Re: Information regarding Gold Stocks*

AVOCA RESOURCES - *AVO*

Check out its market cap versus production value, and check out the AVO thread for more info thats been posted on this gem.

Just about to start producing Gold after 3 years of developing their mines. Once the gold starts coming I would think the SP will keep going.

Set to join the ranks of mid tier miner.


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## Sean K (13 September 2007)

*Re: Gold stock comparison*



kennas said:


> I've started doing a comparison of gold stocks to see how they rate market cap to au equiv and have the list compiled below.
> 
> I actually started it to compare BSG to KMN based on their gold projects and thought I'd throw in the others for comparison.
> 
> ...



Can you guys mentioning other goldies provide the info requested above and I'll put it into the table. Cheers!


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## Nicks (13 September 2007)

AVO

Market cap - $362m
Resource - Greater than 2m ounces and growing constantly (unhedged)
Costs - AUD $369 ounce


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## fiidgets (13 September 2007)

Which one has non resource loan?


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## rub92me (13 September 2007)

LRL - Leyshon Resources Ltd
SP: 0.515, Market Cap: 110 million.
1.7 million ounces (gold equivalent - 1.2 million ounces gold)
Notes: Still drilling and resource should get significantly bigger once JORCed.
Low cost (China, good grades from surface, open pittable to start). Mine development planned 2008.


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## So_Cynical (13 September 2007)

*TRY*

Producer/explorer/developer

Mostly 2006 info

Market cap - $160m
Resource - Greater than 1.2m ounces and growing (100% unhedged)
Costs - The average cash cost of production for the year was 
           A$240 (US$178) per ounce which generated a cash operating 
           margin of A$447 (US$332) per ounce.

Actually spent a while at there site ...and was way impressed, they have a new mine in Brazil starting production early next year and some interesting sites in Mongolia and Aust.


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## Sean K (14 September 2007)

Thanks for the above.

Can people please provide shares on issue so I don't have to look them up to validate market cap. You'll find it on the company website or in the last quarterly. 

Thanks!

PS, I've attached this as a doc for anyone to use as a template, or to amend for their own research.


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## skegsi (14 September 2007)

Hey Kennas
I found this in a Feb 2007 Regis Preso, thought maybe might be of some use.


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## Sean K (14 September 2007)

skegsi said:


> Hey Kennas
> I found this in a Feb 2007 Regis Preso, thought maybe might be of some use.



Thanks skegsi,

Would be nice to know the details behind this but maybe we can drill down into it to find the most 'undervalued'.

Cheers!


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## Bush Trader (14 September 2007)

Doing some research on spec Gold Stocks, and was looking at the following chart for KMN

For those who have expertise in TA can you explain to me the inverted cup with the handle and what it it likely to mean?


Cheers


BT


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## Sean K (14 September 2007)

Bush Trader said:


> Doing some research on spec Gold Stocks, and was looking at the following chart for KMN
> 
> For those who have expertise in TA can you explain to me the inverted cup with the handle and what it it likely to mean?
> 
> ...



Hooly dooly, don't point that out to me. Target is 10 cents!


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## Bush Trader (14 September 2007)

kennas said:


> Hooly dooly, don't point that out to me. Target is 10 cents!




Kennas

Please elaborate?  I note a hint of sarcasim in your reply.


Cheers


BT


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## Sean K (14 September 2007)

Bush Trader said:


> Kennas
> 
> Please elaborate?  I note a hint of sarcasim in your reply.
> 
> ...



The target should be the distance from the base of the cup to the lip, once there's a breakout. So, with an inverse C&H, it heads down. Add up the distances for the target.. ouch!!! Would like to put the market cap to oz au equiv on that and see what it is......actually just did, and it would be worth $342 an ounce. LOL.


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## Bush Trader (14 September 2007)

kennas said:


> The target should be the distance from the base of the cup to the lip, once there's a breakout. So, with an inverse C&H, it heads down. Add up the distances for the target.. ouch!!! Would like to put the market cap to oz au equiv on that and see what it is......actually just did, and it would be worth $342 an ounce. LOL.





Thanks for the reply.  I have no traing in TA, however am interested in the perspectives.

BT


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## Ashpool (14 September 2007)

What about psv...?cheap lots of potential? or on a slippery slope?
If you managed to buy in @ <10c every cent up is a 10% gain.

Anyway how do they rate as potential for future growth?


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## reece55 (14 September 2007)

Ashpool said:


> What about psv...?cheap lots of potential? or on a slippery slope?
> If you managed to buy in @ <10c every cent up is a 10% gain.
> 
> Anyway how do they rate as potential for future growth?




Ashpool
PSV resources are marginal (i.e. high cash costs) and they have had problems with the grade of ore extracted - in short, if they can recover, the stock should be worth 20 cents and upwards, but it's a risky prospect at present.

Cheers


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## Sean K (14 September 2007)

Ashpool said:


> What about psv...?cheap lots of potential? or on a slippery slope?
> If you managed to buy in @ <10c every cent up is a 10% gain.
> 
> Anyway how do they rate as potential for future growth?



Ashpool, how about finding out their shares on issue and what their JORC resource is and let us know. That will be a start. Cheers!


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## rederob (14 September 2007)

EQI
Solid performer over many years, offering annual dividends.
Looks likely to get its Cote d'Ivoire project underway at a low capital cost and with robust margins once in production - payback in less than 15 months if POG holds firmly around $700,
EQI will be a very strong runner should POG breakout, as seems inevitable.


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## reece55 (14 September 2007)

kennas said:


> Ashpool, how about finding out their shares on issue and what their JORC resource is and let us know. That will be a start. Cheers!




Kennas
Per 2006 Annual Report I have 3 Mil tonnes. Total shares on issue 899,525,625 * $0.145 = 130.4 Mil market cap. So, we have $43.4 AUD per ounce....

However, you can't really compare PSV's EV per ounce on the same basis as say LGL, because the cash cost for PSV is $400+, where as it's around $130 (off the top of my head) for LGL........ How you account for this in your analysis and how technical you want to get is up to you I suppose!

Cheers


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## So_Cynical (15 September 2007)

Ashpool said:


> What about psv...?cheap lots of potential? or on a slippery slope?
> If you managed to buy in @ <10c every cent up is a 10% gain.
> 
> Anyway how do they rate as potential for future growth?



There certainly cheap...but theres valid reasons for that.

What works against them is there mines are old and have very 
limited life left..and all there prospecting is in Victoria...theres no 
easy gold left in Victoria.

There bottom line will look better next year so its easy to see there
shares getting to 20c + at some stage....as long as the POG continues 
on its merry way


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## Sean K (15 September 2007)

reece55 said:


> Kennas
> Per 2006 Annual Report I have 3 Mil tonnes. Total shares on issue 899,525,625 * $0.145 = 130.4 Mil market cap. So, we have $43.4 AUD per ounce....
> 
> However, you can't really compare PSV's EV per ounce on the same basis as say LGL, because the cash cost for PSV is $400+, where as it's around $130 (off the top of my head) for LGL........ How you account for this in your analysis and how technical you want to get is up to you I suppose!
> ...



Thanks Reece. Yes, will work these things into the spreadsheet somehow. Will keep it simple for the minute.


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## Sean K (15 September 2007)

rederob said:


> EQI
> Solid performer over many years, offering annual dividends.
> Looks likely to get its Cote d'Ivoire project underway at a low capital cost and with robust margins once in production - payback in less than 15 months if POG holds firmly around $700,
> EQI will be a very strong runner should POG breakout, as seems inevitable.



Shares on issue, SP, Au equiv, cash costs..????


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## rederob (15 September 2007)

kennas said:


> Shares on issue, SP, Au equiv, cash costs..????



kennas
We are not comparing apples with apples.
People who are trying to come to grips with gold shares need to understand a whole range of factors.
Croesus was the last gold stock to go belly up.
It had pretty good mines, and the phoenix that will rise after it should do pretty well.
But like Sons of Gwalia before it, Croesus had bought into hedge commitments that ultimately brought it down.
So you are welcome to number crunch to your heart's content.
But if you cannot marry together the myriad of factors that will impact a goldie going forward, you risk getting badly burnt.

For example, Lihir is one of the best gold plays right now.
It sits in a geologically unstable part of the world.  The nature of its mining operation is highly susceptible to an earthquake, while its processing facility is equally susceptible to a tsunami.
Which book did you read that told you of these risks?
Where do these factors slot into your comparative data sets?
What other vital information are you not factoring into your considerations?

For example, what are a producer's reserve replacement costs?
What is its reserve replacement history?
Will mine sequencing affect its near term price or long term price as moves to or from very high value ore bodies?
Is it possible that water availability could affect mining operations? (Have a look at the mines in Africa presently flooded, and the Australian operations that could be marginalised by lack of water or high water prices in future.)
What impact will poor ore quality, say through metal contaminants or rock hardness, have on capacity to mine at profit?

I won't go on, but hope at least some folk understand that the raw numbers you are crunching will not give you the answers you think you might be able to get.


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## Sean K (15 September 2007)

rederob said:


> kennas
> We are not comparing apples with apples.
> People who are trying to come to grips with gold shares need to understand a whole range of factors.
> Croesus was the last gold stock to go belly up.
> ...



I absolutely agree, but maybe we can add these things to the analysis on the way. We have to start somewhere with comparing the apples, so let's start with just a few things and work our way up.


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## michael_selway (15 September 2007)

Nicks said:


> AVO
> 
> Market cap - $362m
> Resource - Greater than 2m ounces and growing constantly (unhedged)
> Costs - AUD $369 ounce




Does AVO have a limited mine life?

*Earnings and Dividends Forecast (cents per share) 
2006 2007 2008 2009 
EPS -1.2 -1.9 6.4 16.5 
DPS 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 

EPS(c) PE Growth 
Year Ending 30-06-07 -1.9 -- -- 
Year Ending 30-06-08 6.4 26.4 -- *

A feasibility update on the development of the Trident project was released in August 2006. Targeted gold production is around 150,000ozpa, which is a mine life out to 2012 based on the current resource.


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## ormond (15 September 2007)

MML
Shares on issue 142,037,548
Share price $1.41
Market cap $200,272,942
Resource of 713000 ounces and growing rapidly
Initial production of 40000 ounces per annum
Gold production cash cost us$217 per ounce


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## rederob (15 September 2007)

kennas said:


> I absolutely agree, but maybe we can add these things to the analysis on the way. We have to start somewhere with comparing the apples, so let's start with just a few things and work our way up.



Yes.
But shares on issue can hide the difference between explorer and producer.
Having say 100m shares on issue means diddly squat if you need to raise capital, and it will dilute that base by ten to one.
Having followed gold equities for some time I have learned there is no holy grail to investing success that beats sheer hard work and understanding.
Even then a lucky punt comes along and makes all the hard work nugatory.


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## So_Cynical (15 September 2007)

rederob said:


> EQI
> Solid performer over many years, offering annual dividends.
> Looks likely to get its Cote d'Ivoire project underway at a low capital cost and with robust margins once in production - payback in less than 15 months if POG holds firmly around $700,
> EQI will be a very strong runner should POG breakout, as seems inevitable.



Cote d'Ivoire...is there just 1 govt there at the moment??, 
so the rebellion/political instability is over? French troops gone home.?

PNG is way more politically stable than any west African country
the exception is Ghana.


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## Sean K (16 September 2007)

rederob said:


> Yes.
> But shares on issue can hide the difference between explorer and producer.
> Having say 100m shares on issue means diddly squat if you need to raise capital, and it will dilute that base by ten to one.
> Having followed gold equities for some time I have learned there is no holy grail to investing success that beats sheer hard work and understanding.
> Even then a lucky punt comes along and makes all the hard work nugatory.



Yes, that's why I have separated them into explorers/developers and producers. 

Do we need to separate them any further?


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## Bush Trader (17 September 2007)

Kennas,

Might be a speculative explorer to monitor, upgraded JORC Expected shortly in the vicinity of 350,000oz
Maiden JORC resource 215,000 oz Au equivalent
Shares: 82,958,931. Price 29cents = Market Cap of $24,058,090 = Owns 65% of Resource

Plus significant existing mining infrastructure adjacent to the Golden and Blue Spec mines, including: Established shafts, declines and access drives 40,000 TPA treatment plant (upgradeable to 80,000 TPA with additional float cells). Access to sufficient water for operations; Tailings dam; Full mining camp; Good roads - only 2 hrs from Newman; Granted mining leases - no Native Title issues.

This may also help to promote some ideas
2006 Gold Mining Journal Gold Explorer of the Year:
1.	Tropicana: AngloGold Ashanti/Independence Group
2.	Avoca Resources 
3.	Goldstar Resources/Navigator Resources 
4.	Alkane Exploration 
5.	Mercator Gold 
6.	Dominion Mining, Integra Mining, Perseus Mining, Troy Resources, Red 5, Wedgetail Mining 
7.	Cougar Metals, Moto Goldmines, Marengo Mining, Minotaur Exploration 
8.	Bass Metals, Sino Gold, Oropa, Lihir Gold 
9.	Monax Mining, Agincourt Resources, Dioro Exploration, Oxiana, Oceanagold, Tianshan Goldfields 
10.	Tasgold, Medusa Mining, Andean Resources, Echo Resources, Northwest Resources 

2006 Gold Mining Journal Gold Miner of the Year:
1.	Dominion Mining 
2.	Troy Resources 
3.	Barrick Gold 
4.	St Barbara Mines 
5.	Newcrest Mining 
6.	Oxiana, Oceanagold 
7.	Kingsgate Consolidated, Sino Gold 
8.	Newmont Mining 
9.	Equigold, Intrepid Minerals 
10.	Lihir Gold. 


Cheers


BT


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## Go Nuke (17 September 2007)

Hmm well I dont know where this ranks but I'll mention the info I can find (2006 Annual Report)

*Resolute Mining (RSG)*

*Markt Cap 343Mil*
*Ordinary Shares - 229 124 559*
*Unlisted Options - 3 687 500*
*Current share price - $1.48*

Yielded 290 000 ounces of gold @ A$518/ounce
In the 06 report RSG forecast 300,000 ounces @S$570/ounce for the next financial year

Mining in Tanzania,Mali, Ghana, and Australia.

I believe the Syama mines comes online next year adding a significant amount of gold to their resources.
I'm unsure of hedging.


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## Nicks (28 September 2007)

Hey Kennas, got an updated table yet? would be interesting to see with POG up even more.

Also - remember when considering the Market Cap / Oz Au equation consider other fundamentals eg. AVO is set and ready to pump it out of the ground, has already spent its money on exploration, development and production start up. These things make for huge factors in SP value (Merril Lynch have just put AVO as a buy).


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## michael_selway (1 October 2007)

Bush Trader said:


> Kennas,
> 
> Might be a speculative explorer to monitor, upgraded JORC Expected shortly in the vicinity of 350,000oz
> Maiden JORC resource 215,000 oz Au equivalent
> ...




Hi BT, which ones on the 2 lists do you like at current prices?

thx

MS


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## greenfs (2 October 2007)

I am not BT but my two cents worth is:

Intrepid Mining (IAU) - See my post today under separate thread. With its imminent merger most of its problems appear solved and strong management team should *one day* see the share price exceed $1 based upon 2007 market valuations offered by broking houses. I am a holder of this stock at an average entry price of 49cents so hope that I am at least half right in this statement (LOL)

Dragon Mountain Gold (DMG) - This is a fairly new gold stock listing with its territory in China, which may be outside the scope of what you are seeking. However, I understand that a number of the better broking houses are having a serious look even though the stock at $0.57 is already at a substantial premium to its listing price of $0.40 as at end of 07/2007. As much as 37% of stock is held by two founding owners, which similar to RCO, might lead to a higher share price being achieved.


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## Sean K (2 October 2007)

Sorry guys have missed this thread recently. Will have an update later today. I was going to worl on something in another format but have been distracted. Will post a revised table now and an work on it some more later.


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## Sean K (2 October 2007)

If I haven't included some detail here it's because it wasn't included on the forum. 

Please, if you provide a goldie to be included here state shares on issue and JORC'd gold resources as a minimum. 

Will do some more on this tonight (your day)

Cheers.


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## alphman (4 October 2007)

How about CGX?  Details can be found here.


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## Ken (4 October 2007)

I cut a page out of the fin review on the 26th of may.  

HEADLINE REVIVAL FOR NEGLECTED METAL.

It basically shows all the market caps and returns.

I also had an email sent to me with all the research on about 15 producing gold stocks.

It has the stocks most leveraged for success with higher gold prices.

The stocks that really have massive potential are:

RSG and AVO, at $1000 an ounce Australian, RSG was valued at $7-$8.  At the time RSG was $1.30 a share. There were risks involved with RSG as there operation was undergorund. Correct me if I am wrong but they had have issues before.


They had all the usual info like resource grades and IGR was head of list for most undervalued in terms of ounces.  I think this was because they were looking for a 5th year to mine to get the mine going. I presume they have that 5th year now the share price has doubled from 13 cents to 28 cents.

SINGO gold is ramping up production from its jinfeng gold mine in china and hopes to bring its 2nd mine white mountain online by end of next year. Stage one of jinfeng will produce 180,000 ounces per year at a cost of $220 per ounce and plans to increase output to 250-300.

White mountain will produce 70-80 thousand ounces.

Gold may have been missed.

PSV now looks interesting considering they are 13 cents or so...


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## blaze87 (3 November 2007)

just wondering what would be the avg Cash Operating Cost for asx companies...

also which gold company has the forecasted lowest Cash Operating Cost?


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## michael_selway (5 November 2007)

*Re: Information regarding Gold Stocks*



So_Cynical said:


> Troy Resources *TRY* is another producer going well...ive only been
> holding for 7 weeks...and up over 25%
> 
> Troy is totally unhedged.




Hi its not too bad

*Earnings and Dividends Forecast (cents per share) 
2007 -- -- -- 
EPS 34.4 -- -- -- 
DPS 7.5 -- -- -- *

thx

MS



> Business Description
> Troy Resources NL (TRY) is an international gold mining and exploration company with main projects located in WA and Brazil. TRY is also engaged in gold and base metal exploration in Mongolia.
> 
> Company Strategy
> TRY is hoping to become a significant profitable mid tier gold producer with a portfolio of quality long life assets. The company is currently producing gold from the Sandstone project in WA and Sertao in Brazil at a rate of 100kozpa. TRY purchased the Andorinhas Gold project off Agincourt Resources (now part of Oxiana) and is developing it to deliver 50kozpa of gold. TRY has a strong balance sheet with cash in excess of $80m. A significant land position in Australia, Brazil and Mongolia along with other strategic investments provides it with a number of growth options. A $6m exploration budget for FY08 is planned. Troy has repeatedly said it is in the market to acquire a substantial project, with a 1Moz reserve and a target production of over 100,00ozpa for a 10 year mine life. Exploration or acquisitions will need to occur to continue production, given the short mine life of its current projects. Troy Resources reported NPAT up 26% to $20.1m for the year ended 30 June 2007. Revenues from ordinary activities were $91.76m, up 7% from last year. Diluted EPS was 34.4 cents compared to 28.7 cents last year. Net operating cash flow was $34.45m compared to $24.93m last year. The final dividend declared was 7.5 cents, taking the full year dividend to 7.5 cents compared with 7 cents last year.


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## numbercruncher (14 January 2008)

All things considered, thread deserves /bump


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## So_Cynical (14 January 2008)

Still many near and small producers on my watch lists that have hardly moved...surely with POG 
now above 910 USD tonight...the value SP's wont last long.


Wish i had some money...mmm maybe do some selling tomorrow.


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## explod (14 January 2008)

So_Cynical said:


> Still many near and small producers on my watch lists that have hardly moved...surely with POG
> now above 910 USD tonight...the value SP's wont last long.
> 
> 
> Wish i had some money...mmm maybe do some selling tomorrow.




What has happened of late is that the rise in the gold price has attracted new players.  The gold bugs have been set for some time.  The new investors will be first attracted to the blue chips, last week it was Newcreast that jumped most one day early in the week.  Lihir Gold did ok as did SBM, RSG NEM AND and AGG.   All the bigger ones.

Today they did not fare so well in fact some retreated but we did see a good jump in AVO 6%, which tells me that the newcomers have done a bit of research over the weekend and noticed that here is a good one that may have been a bit oversold last week.

Of the smaller caps, gold bugs have their fill so it will require some broker and news interest to get the newbies on board.  I would wait till that starts and as we watch like a hawk we will know when that time copmes and when to strike.   For me AVO at the moment.    But just my very humble opinion of course.


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## jman2007 (17 January 2008)

Yo Kennas,

Don't know if this is still your little side project or not, but here are another couple of sleeping giants that have been overlooked on your hitlist so far:

*Perseus Mining (PRU)*

Fully Paid Ordinary Shares on Issue: 131,952,468
Market Cap: 152M
Flagship Project: Ayanfuri Project in Ghana, West Africa. Exploration atm. Several other resources including Grumesa and Tengrela (Ivory Coast).

Ayanfuri as of Sept 2007 stood at *2.61Moz* (indicated 637,500 oz; inferred 1,972,800 oz).

*CGA Mining (CGX)*

Fully Paid Ordinary Shares on Issue: 161,249,976
Market Cap: 233M

Flagship Project: Masbate Au project Phillippines. 

Mining resource of *5Moz* including a Probable Mining Reserve of *1.984Moz* @1.65g/t. Should be in production Q1 2009. Hoping to achieve $US 306/oz.

They also have another Au project in Nigeria called Segilola, the countries most advanced gold project. Potential resource >0.8Moz.

Cheers
jman


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## Sean K (17 January 2008)

jman2007 said:


> Yo Kennas,
> 
> Don't know if this is still your little side project or not, but here are another couple of sleeping giants that have been overlooked on your hitlist so far:



Cheers, have added and will have a revised list out shortly for review/discussion. kennas


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## jman2007 (17 January 2008)

kennas said:


> Cheers, have added and will have a revised list out shortly for review/discussion. kennas




Damn Kennas!....that was quick,

I'm very much looking forward to a review and a discussion of your findings once the initial data collection stage is completed.

Cheers mate

jman


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## Sean K (17 January 2008)

Here is the current list I have, with updated sp's. Some of the other information needs to be reviewed or expanded on. Any additions please post with as much info as possible. 

Minimum requirement:

Shares on issue
Current sp
Current Au equiv resource base JORC'd
Explorer/Developer/Producer?
Notes on key project

If possible g/t and cash costs.

Cheers,
kennas

Screen shot below and doc attached...


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## grace (17 January 2008)

NAV  Navigator Resources (currently hold)

Not just gold, but REO (rare earths + uranium yet to be jorced and a couple of other JV's).

GOLD  100% owned nav
JORC  870 000oz au   (12.5mt @ 2.2g/t au)
A lot of recent drilling NOT included in JORC.  Upgrade soon should put it over 1m oz.  Nice grades from recent drilling.  Surrounding Leonora (5 mills within 70 km radius).  Has Fred Merton's discoveries ie Mertondale 2 parrellel shears 15 kms long each.  Could find several million oz eventually (not my words, I read that).  Target mid 2009 production.  Low cost, open cut, shallow.  Finding cost per oz $8.  

Shares on issue  132 281 205  (no listed options)
Current sp $0.90
MC  $119 mill
Explorer targeting production mid 2009.

I guess for valuation purposes, not a pure gold play, but interesting to see what it looks like just for gold.


----------



## grace (17 January 2008)

grace said:


> NAV  Navigator Resources (currently hold)
> 
> Not just gold, but REO (rare earths + uranium yet to be jorced and a couple of other JV's).
> 
> ...




I think their holdings were bought from insolvent Sons of Gwalia initially, so scooped a cheapy.


----------



## Sean K (17 January 2008)

grace said:


> NAV  Navigator Resources (currently hold)



Included. MC to oz au = $136. Highish and possibly because of the other projects. If you could take the value of anything else off the sp then you'd get a better idea of it in comparison just on the gold.

Revised file att.


----------



## lazyfish (17 January 2008)

SAR (developer/explorer)

shares (m) - 187
SP - 0.37
MC(m) - 70
Au equiv (m) - 2.5
MC/oz - 28

Notes - owns infrastructure including a 2.4mt plant. Not sure about production date.


----------



## grace (17 January 2008)

MON  Monarch Gold  
Resource 5 million oz gold @ 3g/tonne  
UNHEDGED

Currently mining (has done their first gold pour and winding up production).  Production goal is 500 000 oz by end of 2009.

MC = $116 million
SP  = $0.685
Shares  159 194 165

Compared to others, seems to be valued on the low side IMO.  I hold.  Chairman Michael Kiernan.  Has bought infrastructure around exploration area.  Is still drilling to add to resource on very nice prospective land.


----------



## jman2007 (17 January 2008)

Hi Kennas,

Cheers for the updated analysis.  Another couple of up-and-comers for you here, with a distinctly "local flavour":

*A1 Minerals (AAM)*

Fully Paid Ordinary Shares on Issue: 95,203,506
Market Cap: 27M
Share Price: $0.285
Flagship Project: Brightstar Gold Project, NE Goldfields.

JORC compliant resource for Brightstar of *1Moz @ 2.2g/t*, grown at a rate of 300,000oz p/a for cost of $US 5/oz. PFS completed, no production decision for Brightstar as yet??

*Crescent Gold (CRE)*

Fully Paid Ordinary Shares on Issue: 581,000,000
Market Cap: 220M
Share Price: $0.38
Flagship Project: Laverton Gold Project (LGP), NE Goldfields.

JORC compliant resource (indicated) for LGP of *362,000oz @ 1.7g/t*, global resource currently stands at *490,000oz measured and indicated*, plus *970,000oz inferred*.  Cash cost forecast for LGP Aus $550-600/oz.
CRE fully de-hedged as of 11/01/2008 for all forward gold sales.

*Disclaimer:* Hold CGX and PRU, do not hold AAM or CRE.

Cheers
jman


----------



## So_Cynical (17 January 2008)

Keenas

*IAU - INTREPID MINES LIMITED* is a *Producer*, has been for 2 years at it Paulsen's mine in northern West Aust.

Market Cap: 49,811,179 
Issued Shares: 166,037,266
last trade 0.30

All up JORC (approx) 600.000oz au and 10.6 million ounces silver

They also have a med sized project in late development in Argentina
and recently announced a Resource upgrade there.

_"The highlight of the Resource Update is an increase of approximately 97,000 ounces (23%) of gold 
equivalent in the Kamila deposit's global indicated mineral resources, comprising 55,000 ounces of 
gold and 2,396,000 ounces of silver. This represents an increase to 368,000 and 10.6 million ounces 
of gold and silver respectively"_

I hold IAU...i also hold SBS

*SBS - SUB-SAHARA RESOURCES NL* *Explorer*

Market Cap: 37,085,829 
Issued Shares: 501,159,859 
Last trade 0.074

Approximate total inferred & indicated Gold resources, in excess of 1.7 million ounces
Has ground in Tanzania and Eritrea (Africa) JVs with Barrick and Resolute.


----------



## Sean K (19 January 2008)

Update attached.

Any ideas why MON looks so 'cheap' on a peer comparison?


----------



## Spaghetti (19 January 2008)

kennas said:


> Update attached.
> 
> Any ideas why MON looks so 'cheap' on a peer comparison?




Two reasons.

#1 . Recently acquired Harmony gold and the resource included in your spreadsheet but not the liability, 65 mil.

#2. High cash costs, this will probably reduce over time.


----------



## Spaghetti (19 January 2008)

Have to include KAL

Market cap (including unquoted shares) 32 million

Shares on issue 174 mil (including unquoted 50mil)

Jorc 1.4 Moz avg grade 1.7g/t .....900,000oz indicated

last s/p .18c

early stage developer, scoping study underway.

notes : updated jorc due before end of Jan. Deposit Banded Iron Formation, shallow open pit, Selene deposit being on a slope that may reduce cash costs (according to intersuisse report on KAL website).


----------



## Spaghetti (19 January 2008)

Dioro Exploration

Market cap 106 million
Shares on issue 68 million
Jorc resources

Frogs legs, 49% owned 723,000 ounces at 5.6g/t (undergound mining) (rest owned by tsx listed la mancha).

South Kal 1.8Moz avg grade 2g/t

s/p 1.57

On mill in Soth Kal included in acquisition from Harmony (everyone being buying Harmony?)

I believe there will be an update of resource from frog leg early this year.

Do not hold.


----------



## jman2007 (19 January 2008)

kennas said:


> Update attached.
> 
> Any ideas why MON looks so 'cheap' on a peer comparison?




Kennas,

Been wondering about this myself tbh. On the surface, the prospects of the company appear very good.  Targeting 500,00oz/pa by 2009, impressive global resource base of 2.8Moz at a head grade of 5.3g/t.  Significant exploration upside in remaining unexplored tenements, and a proposed expl budget of $11M for 2008.

As of 30 Spet 07, net operating cash flow of -$11,092,000 and cash on hand at bank of $428,000.  Of course not unusal for a company to run at a loss during commissioning period etc. Recent share issue consolidation at a 3:1 ratio probably placed down pressure on sp, in adition proposed TSX listing may cause further dilution to current holders, unless spin-off occurs under separate listing????  Proposed expansions and ramp-up during 2008 may also place undue financial strain on MON.

Imo, a further key for MON will also be it's ability or otherwise in retaining key fifo personnel for its rapidly expanding operations in the goldfields, a real challenge in the WA labour market at the moment.

Just my 
jman

*Disclaimer:*  DNH


----------



## Sean K (19 January 2008)

jman2007 said:


> Kennas,
> 
> Been wondering about this myself tbh. On the surface, the prospects of the company appear very good.  Targeting 500,00oz/pa by 2009, impressive global resource base of 2.8Moz at a head grade of 5.3g/t.  Significant exploration upside in remaining unexplored tenements, and a proposed expl budget of $11M for 2008.
> 
> ...



I also think because the total resource is spread over several deposits that this adds significantly to the cash costs. They'd be much more attractive with the 5m oz in an open pit from surface...of course. They have quite a significant tenament package there, so there's a chance they could find a super pit....maybe. Definately food for thought though. 

Actually, same goes for CTO. Big resource spread over several deposits and a very low MC to resource comparison....


----------



## jman2007 (19 January 2008)

kennas said:


> I also think because the total resource is spread over several deposits that this adds significantly to the cash costs. They'd be much more attractive with the 5m oz in an open pit from surface...of course. They have quite a significant tenament package there, so there's a chance they could find a super pit....maybe. Definately food for thought though.
> 
> Actually, same goes for CTO. Big resource spread over several deposits and a very low MC to resource comparison....




Yes good point,

I imagine with 2 (?) current pocessing facilities at Dayyhurst and Minjar, their strategy would to be to mine several satellite pits simultaneously, or perhaps in a stepwise manner (anyone know of a production schedule for MON?) and haul the ore by road.  This could have significantly to operating costs.

jman


----------



## Sean K (19 January 2008)

jman2007 said:


> Yes good point,
> 
> I imagine with 2 (?) current pocessing facilities at Dayyhurst and Minjar, their strategy would to be to mine several satellite pits simultaneously, or perhaps in a stepwise manner (anyone know of a production schedule for MON?) and haul the ore by road.  This could have significantly to operating costs.
> 
> jman



Well, their aim is to be producing 500K oz a year from 09, so that's the schedule. There's more detail on their web site. I hope they are not been too optomistic in that regard. They had some big ramp up issues last year with a deposit that was not conforming as expected. 

One thing that I have found recently with gold miners is that they CONTINUALLY come out with downgrades (usually due to grades) as opposed to upgrades. LGL and NCM are classic examples.


----------



## Spaghetti (19 January 2008)

I see Monarch as being better able to overcome any problem in the short term as opposed to CTO. CTO cannot increase reserves from resorces for some geological reason. The nuggety effect is hard to measure it seems. Have read quite a bit about it but hard to fully understand unless you are a geologist. I cannot see enough geologists investing in CTO to prop up the price though. If they do find a jorc compliant way to measure (and confirm) the resource the s.p will go through the roof. I recall projected cash costs for CTO to be very low though, thought I had them written down somewhere but seems not ! Sure they were under $400 an ounce, will confirm later.


----------



## jman2007 (19 January 2008)

kennas said:


> Well, their aim is to be producing 500K oz a year from 09, so that's the schedule. There's more detail on their web site. I hope they are not been too optomistic in that regard. They had some big ramp up issues last year with a deposit that was not conforming as expected.
> 
> One thing that I have found recently with gold miners is that they CONTINUALLY come out with downgrades (usually due to grades) as opposed to upgrades. LGL and NCM are classic examples.




Well I guess it depends on the planning and objectives for mine development,

There are two obejctives that can be achieved.  If high quality (more Measured and Indicated) resources are required, any additional deposit specific drilling would need to be targeted to infill the current drilling in order to meet this ojective.

If additional global resources are required, i.e. to meet an economic hurdle, infilling the current drilling may not yield the required increase in global resources. Step out drilling would be required and only good geological understanding of the controls on gold mineralisation will help enure that the drilling is well placed to achieve best results.

Potentially, step out drilling could achieve an increase in the global inventory, but at a reduced grade since the drilling may well extend to/or outside the periphery of the ore body.  Infill drilling may not yield an increase in global inventory, but may result in an increased level of confidence, eg. resource elevated from Inferred to Indicated.

I think this is what you are getting at....

jman


----------



## Spaghetti (19 January 2008)

Couple more

*Centamin Egypt*

Producer

Market cap 1,080.00 (however cashed up due to options conversion)

Shares on issue 763 million

Last s/p $1.415

Cash costs USD290/oz

Grades average 1.8 g/t

Jorc resource 11 Moz 7.4Moz Measured and indicated and 3.7 Moz inferred. However the Egyptian government gets 50% of profit I believe, anyone confirm this?

*Norton Goldfields*

Market cap 191 million

Shares on issue 324 million

Last s/p .59c

cash costs $500

jorc resource 3.17 Moz avg grade 1.8g/t


----------



## jman2007 (19 January 2008)

Spaghetti said:


> I see Monarch as being better able to overcome any problem in the short term as opposed to CTO. CTO cannot increase reserves from resorces for some geological reason. The nuggety effect is hard to measure it seems. Have read quite a bit about it but hard to fully understand unless you are a geologist. I cannot see enough geologists investing in CTO to prop up the price though. If they do find a jorc compliant way to measure (and confirm) the resource the s.p will go through the roof. I recall projected cash costs for CTO to be very low though, thought I had them written down somewhere but seems not ! Sure they were under $400 an ounce, will confirm later.




Hehe,

As a Expl Geo in gold myself, as opposed to a Mine Geo I haven't come across the "nuggety effect" myself Spag. Would seem like it would have some kind of impact on resource modelling however, and could impede the search criteria used in the resource model itself. It is possible to get nugget formation in the regolith (basically weathered cover rock) which I suspect could be what this term is getting at.  Might do a bit of swot 2day and find out...  Btw, I don't hold CTO atm, but more due to the fact that I simply haven't researched them 

jman


----------



## Spaghetti (19 January 2008)

jman2007 said:


> Hehe,
> 
> As a Expl Geo in gold myself, as opposed to a Mine Geo I haven't come across the "nuggety effect" myself Spag. Would seem like it would have some kind of impact on resource modelling however, and could impede the search criteria used in the resource model itself. It is possible to get nugget formation in the regolith (basically weathered cover rock) which I suspect could be what this term is getting at.  Might do a bit of swot 2day and find out...  Btw, I don't hold CTO atm, but more due to the fact that I simply haven't researched them
> 
> jman




I may have added a little window dressing adding a "y" lol, nugget effect .. it was Bendigo that started this fear of quartz vein systems

here is a summary of a publication just so you know my imagination is not that inventive ..

http://www.ausimm.com.au/publications/epublication.aspx?ID=1284

_The Bendigo Goldfield is located in the state of Victoria, Australia, and is one of a number of fields that make up the Central Victorian Goldfield. Since 1993, Bendigo Mining NL has been carrying out an extensive re-evaluation of the goldfield and is currently well advanced in developing an underground mine. The sediment-hosted auriferous quartz reefs are structurally complex and closely associated with anticlinal axes and reverse faulting. The gold within the quartz reefs is characterised by both its coarse nature (100 up to >5000 µm) and its erratic distribution; as a result, the Bendigo Goldfield is classed as an extreme nugget effect system. This characteristic ensures that the Bendigo mineralisation is very challenging to sample and evaluate. In this case, diamond drilling is a good measure of structure and geological continuity, but a poor measure of grade and grade distribution. Drilling, combined with on-reef development, bulk sampling and detailed geological studies are required for resource evaluation. For grade control a balance has to be sought between sample representativness, cost, turn around time and practicality. Extreme nugget effect deposits like Bendigo, require the use of bulk samples in order to be representative. However, the cost and turn around time is significant. As a result, a micro-bulk sampling system has been introduced that attempts to overcome these problems by providing a fast, practical method that can define ore from waste. Bulk sampling and on-vein development are still necessary for resource and reserve estimation._

So not about CTO but the market has lumped poor old CTO into the same bucket. perhaps you maybe able to make some sense from it, will be pleased to hear back.

Cheers.


----------



## jman2007 (19 January 2008)

Spaghetti said:


> I may have added a little window dressing adding a "y" lol, nugget effect .. it was Bendigo that started this fear of quartz vein systems
> 
> here is a summary of a publication just so you know my imagination is not that inventive ..
> 
> ...




Thanks for the info,

I can certainly see how this type of mineralisation could be very difficult to interpret and produce a resource model for.  Quite different from the area I work in where a lot of the gold is pyrite or BIF hosted, and dominantly structurally controlled.

One way to produce a resource model is by the "Indicator Kriging Block Model" method, the basic unit of the block model is a panel that normally has the dimensions of the average drill hole spacing, eg. 15 meters (east) by 20 meters (north). The selected panel should be large enough to contain a reasonable number of blocks or mining units (at least 15).  The mining block is the smallest volume of rock that could be mined separately as ore or waste, and usually is defined by a minimum mining width.

Indicator Kriging was developed to address some of the problems associated with estimation of resources in mineral deposits where sample grades show the properties of extreme variation and where estimates of grade show senisitivity to a small number of very high grades.  In this case Spag, if CTO are grappling with a similar problem, there is a fair chance they would be using this, or a similar method for their modelling.

The goal of Indicator Kriging is to esimate tonnage and grade of ore that would be recovered from each panel if the panel were mined using the block as the minimum selection criteria to distinguish between ore and waste.  Usually the resource modellers would separate out the resource composites  (data supplied by the mining company) into mineralized zones and work out the proportion of each mineralized zone within each panel, and the proportion of each panel which exceeds a selected cut-off grade.

Within each panel, a search radii would work out how far the kriging program would look in any direction to find composites to include in the resource estimation for that panel.  Obviously the greater the number of composites, the more reliable the estimate.  Usually the input data would be entirely supplied by the mining company, ie. drill hole intercepts.

You can probably already guess the difficulty in achieving reliable grade distribution controls and effective bulk sampling from these types of deposits, bear in mind that poorly distributed composite samples and huge variations in grade would have a detrimental effect on the model.  Also, the competent person under JORC who has to verify the validity of the data has to be satisfied in the quality of sampling and assaying, the geological interp etc is up to JORC quality.  A very tricky job indeed!

Sorry for rambling on a bit, I'm probably miles of topic now and get growled at by Kennas 

jman

PS I thought for a minute the "nuggety effect" might be some wiry, nuggety old prospector who refuses to get the hell of your tenement


----------



## Spaghetti (19 January 2008)

thanks Jman !

I think it important information when doing stock comparisons so we know why some stocks seem undervalued and also so we know when they could be re-rated due to solutions to these problems. I do not think Kennas will mind too much as it is in context.

Cheers


----------



## jman2007 (19 January 2008)

Spaghetti said:


> thanks Jman !
> 
> I think it important information when doing stock comparisons so we know why some stocks seem undervalued and also so we know when they could be re-rated due to solutions to these problems. I do not think Kennas will mind too much as it is in context.
> 
> Cheers




No worries

glad you found it useful, sometimes when you make comparisons between stocks you need to use information from a variety of disciplines.  I'm sure the more financially minded investors would also be able to give a good financial analysis as well.  This thread could turn out to be very useful for people.

jman


----------



## refined silver (19 January 2008)

A couple of littlies with big resources: All in AUD

*FNT - Frontier Resourses*.

Shares (fully diluted) - 140m
Price - 11c
MC - $15m

JORC resources
Au - 2.7m oz
Ag - 15m oz
Cu - 1.7 billion pounds

- Resource is in PNG (One furthest part comes within a few hundred metres of Kokado Trail.
CAPEX - $824m

*GCR - Golden Cross Resources*- 

Shares (fd) - 651m
Price - 3.3c
MC - $21m

JORC Resources: (NSW)
Au - 1.4m oz
Ag - 11.4moz
Cu - 1bp

CAPEX $330m
- Also 5 royalties received, many JV farm outs, with lots of $ being spent on their properties. 
- undervalued cos a low grade resource - Pre Feas assumed $450 Au, $1.40 Cu, when factored with current prices should be due a serious re-rating.

*PGM - Platina Resources*

Shares (FD) - 41.2m
Price - 90c
MC - $37m

JORC res

- Has 6 PGM props in Aus, One with 2.1m oz @ 2.1g/t. CEO is geol with 30yr exp and major finds.
- Also has Skaergaard prop in Greenland with 50m oz PGM Eq (30m oz Pd, 10m oz Au, 4m oz Pt, plus 7.5% Van, 6.4% TiO2. Overall @10/2005 prices (Au470,Pt800,Pd180,15,150pig iron,400) is worth $83/t. Cost to mine $26/t (Galahad Gold relinquished after spending $150m cos prices of access metals V&Ti prices down ($26 to $9/kg for Van in 05, and forecast further decreases)
PGM doing Feas this year. 



















Dislaimer: I have shares in all 3.


----------



## So_Cynical (20 January 2008)

I think its important to make clear distinctions between producers 
(cash flow positive) and explorers (cash flow negative)

refined silver...FNT - Frontier Resourses.
seems way under value with a JORC resources Au - 2.7m oz
and a cap of 15mill.

can u elaborate on why there cap is so low?


----------



## Miner (20 January 2008)

Yes I also join with the same request and appreciate to get some further back up information.

Cheers


----------



## Miner (20 January 2008)

Spaghetti said:


> Dioro Exploration
> 
> Market cap 106 million
> Shares on issue 68 million
> ...


----------



## Spaghetti (20 January 2008)

So_Cynical said:


> I think its important to make clear distinctions between producers
> (cash flow positive) and explorers (cash flow negative)
> 
> refined silver...FNT - Frontier Resourses.
> ...




Well I am not refined silver, just lowly spag lol but I understand the Australian government is trying to have the kokoda trail world heritage listed and for a halt to the mining. Plus they anticipate many years before production. So wait and see.

Miner

Thank you.


----------



## Sean K (20 January 2008)

jman2007 said:


> Sorry for rambling on a bit, I'm probably miles of topic now and get growled at by Kennas



 Absolutely way off topic jman.  You should not be providing such information in relation to gold mining in a gold company comparison thread....oh, hang on..... 

Cheers, I'm sure everyone here appreciates the knowledge, time and effort. 

The overall comparison table I'm updating really is just scratching the surface, and it's this type of discussion that goes to show who may really be undervalued, in the detail. 

And, as always, people need to DTOR to confirm all the numbers presented.


----------



## Spaghetti (20 January 2008)

So_Cynical said:


> I think its important to make clear distinctions between producers
> (cash flow positive) and explorers (cash flow negative)




Strange situation atm. Since sub prime there has been mass return to fundamental analysis..ie first criteria a company must actually make money! So we have the gold producers increasing s/p and the gold explorers losing ground. There has to be at some point a correction to in ground values or else there will be no incentive to explore. Why invest in an exploration company only to see the resource sold of for a fraction it cost to larger miners? I wish I knew when this correction will happen because then we will see huge appreciation in s/p for explorers with known resources.


----------



## explod (20 January 2008)

Spaghetti said:


> Strange situation atm. Since sub prime there has been mass return to fundamental analysis..ie first criteria a company must actually make money! So we have the gold producers increasing s/p and the gold explorers losing ground. There has to be at some point a correction to in ground values or else there will be no incentive to explore. Why invest in an exploration company only to see the resource sold of for a fraction it cost to larger miners? I wish I knew when this correction will happen because then we will see huge appreciation in s/p for explorers with known resources.




Yep, I wish we could know too.   That would be the holy grail.

The market it self will guide you.  When stocks begin to move up on volume is one of the best rules of thumb.

For me I keep my special worked out stocks on watch lists, some using broker alerts.

We have new investors moving into the gold sector who at the start will hit the blue chips.   Sentiment will head to the exploreres as the gold message sinks in.   And maybe it soon will, the Melbourne Herald Sun today has a lead busines article on the merits of investing in gold so stick with it, faith and patience is also required in this caper.


----------



## JTLP (20 January 2008)

So what are people's thoughts on the most undervalued companies in this thread so far? Based on the fundamentals and other factors.

I am currently in on Avoca, but they just can't seem to run with the price of gold (maybe when they produce they will have more stability and sp increase).

I liked the looks of NAV and PRU, but PRU had me worried about its location (Africa), and some days of lacking volume. Both NAV and PRU are expecting drill results soon though. 

Can anyone see a comp they think is fairly undervalued, and with solid support?


----------



## Sean K (20 January 2008)

JTLP said:


> Can anyone see a comp they think is fairly undervalued, and with solid support?



JTLP, I'm leaning towards anything in production and unhedged to take advantage of the current price increases. Not necessarily simply 'undervaled on MC to oz au.' 

They should naturally command a higher valuation in these terms, in this environment, especially when future equity may be hard to come by for development. So, big resources and good cash flow are probably better investment options at this time, IMO. So, I'm only really looking at the top couple of producers who are earning, for value.

However, for multibagger short term trading potential, I haven't seen too many on this list. And, perhaps they shouldn't be, because we're after a JORC to determine 'value'. The true multibagger is one that is exploring and comes out with a resource to the massive upside. 

From this list, there are a few, but still very spec, and almost impossible to 'compare' as the title of the thread requires....


----------



## jman2007 (20 January 2008)

So_Cynical said:


> I think its important to make clear distinctions between producers
> (cash flow positive) and explorers (cash flow negative)
> 
> refined silver...FNT - Frontier Resourses.
> ...




Well I don't think it is so simple as that,

Many producing mines will still be cashflow negative in the first 1-2 years of production, they could commence mining and 6 months of ore stockpiling beofre any production even takes place. Toward the end of mine life many companies will treat lower grade "waste ore" or tailings to recover lower grades, and you can almost guarantee that they will be cashflow positive by then.

It still looks like there is a steady trickle of info coming in for Kennas to compile, I might re-assess my submitted data just to double check everything is accurate and I'd urge everyone else to do the same, so we can have an informed discussion.

jman


----------



## JTLP (20 January 2008)

kennas said:


> JTLP, I'm leaning towards anything in production and unhedged to take advantage of the current price increases. Not necessarily simply 'undervaled on MC to oz au.'
> 
> They should naturally command a higher valuation in these terms, in this environment, especially when future equity may be hard to come by for development. So, big resources and good cash flow are probably better investment options at this time, IMO. So, I'm only really looking at the top couple of producers who are earning, for value.
> 
> ...





Thanks Kennas. That's why i picked up AVO, not too long to production which should help it along a bit. In these current climates it's difficult to assess when a company will go from explorer to producer. It seems a lot of smaller companies (i think MUN) are about to produce, but i'm not too sure on the effect to the SP. JMan2007 i agree, all data needs to be looked over and assessed for a really indepth/quality discussion, not just ramping.


----------



## jman2007 (20 January 2008)

kennas said:


> JTLP, I'm leaning towards anything in production and unhedged to take advantage of the current price increases. Not necessarily simply 'undervaled on MC to oz au.'
> 
> They should naturally command a higher valuation in these terms, in this environment, especially when future equity may be hard to come by for development. So, big resources and good cash flow are probably better investment options at this time, IMO. So, I'm only really looking at the top couple of producers who are earning, for value.
> 
> ...




Lol Kennas....:iamwithst

Agreed, we might not have opened up a can of worms here but rather an entire worm farm.  We might have to start another website called "ASF Gold Stock Comparisons" or something.  Given the multitude of factors, you're probably right in predicting that the true sleeping giants are the ones who will unexpectedly release a stellar result somewhere down the line.

Some of the bigger companies like Barrick, like to sit on the sidelines and let a company do all the work in determining a resource and then simply come in and purchase the project. Potentially some of these companies could market themselves as a takeover target as well....

jman :


----------



## refined silver (20 January 2008)

So_Cynical said:


> I think its important to make clear distinctions between producers
> (cash flow positive) and explorers (cash flow negative)
> 
> refined silver...FNT - Frontier Resourses.
> ...




1. Because exactly as you say there is a difference between explorers/developers and producers and even within those categories a difference.

2. The CAPEX is bigger than what the market expected -so recently the price dropped.

3. Issues over the Kokoda trail, but the mine if goes ahead won't touch it, and it only goes close to a 1km section of a 90km trail. This has been overblown to me, is not a real reason, but has kept investors away

4. It really is undervalued im my opinion, which is what value investors like me look for.  (But even though good, its certainly not the most undervalued at all.)


----------



## jman2007 (20 January 2008)

kennas said:


> However, for multibagger short term trading potential, I haven't seen too many on this list. And, perhaps they shouldn't be, because we're after a JORC to determine 'value'. The true multibagger is one that is exploring and comes out with a resource to the massive upside. ...




A good example of this would be Barra Resources (BAR) recent ultra-high grade hits in the Coolgardie region at their Burnanks Project, which included 4.69m @462.1 g/t and 0.21m @10,300 g/t... yes that is 10.3 kg of gold per tonne! Sp jumped from approx 27c to around 43c.

I believe this set some kind of record on the ASX.

Ramelius Resources (RML) also probably falls into this category, extreme sp volatility based on very high grade results only for the price to head south once a lower than expected Mineral Resource estimate was released to the market.

jman


----------



## jman2007 (20 January 2008)

JTLP said:


> I liked the looks of NAV and PRU, but PRU had me worried about its location (Africa), and some days of lacking volume. Both NAV and PRU are expecting drill results soon though.




JTLP,

I currently hold PRU, there have been a few strange calls made by PRU recently, one being the decision to divest the Kyrgyz portfolio with an entirely new float, which didn't go down well with some people.... Essentially existing PRU holders were offered shares in the new float under a measley pro-rata entitlement, essentially you have to buy back what you already owned.  Here's a sample from one irate flyboy.



flyboy77 said:


> Well troops, it came out after market tonight and my first impression is that PRU shareholders WILL NOT be happy.
> 
> No in specie distribution of shares in the new company to PRU shareholders - merely a pro rata entitlement - you have to pay to own what you already own!
> 
> ...




On the other hand, my current outlook on PRU is still reasonably hopeful, and yes, drilling results still outstanding from Dec 2007.  Here's my latest take of the comapny:



jman2007 said:


> Hi JTLP,
> 
> Yes sp is a little soft atm, if I had some spare cash I might even consider buying some more shares.  Although I am still resonably bullish re PRU's performance in 2008.  Good point re the pending drilling results and one of the Directors increasing his interest...
> 
> ...


----------



## So_Cynical (20 January 2008)

jman2007 said:


> Well I don't think it is so simple as that,
> 
> Many producing mines will still be cashflow negative in the first 1-2 years of production, they could commence mining and 6 months of ore stockpiling beofre any production even takes place. Toward the end of mine life many companies will treat lower grade "waste ore" or tailings to recover lower grades, and you can almost guarantee that they will be cashflow positive by then.
> jman




My example was black and white...your talking about the Grey's

Theres alot of company's in that area...close to or begun production
but still burning cash....others that are fully funded to production.

All these factors will show up in the Market Cap.


----------



## refined silver (20 January 2008)

kennas said:


> JTLP, I'm leaning towards anything in production and unhedged to take advantage of the current price increases. Not necessarily simply 'undervaled on MC to oz au.'
> 
> They should naturally command a higher valuation in these terms, in this environment, especially when future equity may be hard to come by for development. So, big resources and good cash flow are probably better investment options at this time, IMO. So, I'm only really looking at the top couple of producers who are earning, for value.
> 
> ...




You've touched on a few very important points.

1. Prod'n vs Resources - eg which is better co all other things being equal, 5m oz resource and 200koz/a prod'n, or 10m oz resource but only 100moz/a production? At the begining of a PM bull, production is king. Later in the bull, PM companies are not valued on income or P/E but are more valued as an asset company, hence resources become very important.

2. Unhedged is v. important. There is still a lot of hedging hidden out there, juniors in JV with majors who have non-recourse loans just one example.

3.  There are some multibagger potentials out there, this can come as the sector gets re-rated or for ind companies as people suddenly "see" a company's value. 

4.  You might have mentioned it in a different post to the one quoted, but while great drill results often cause a price to fly, I personally prefer resources already there. Eg Take PGM - MC $37m - has over 2m oz Pt, and 50m oz PGM in Greenland including 10m oz Au. Why buy explorers with Market Caps of $40m with no resources when no matter how good their drill results they are not going to get within miles of resources like this? Same with $20m companies why buy without resources when for the same $20m you can get decent resources.


----------



## tigerboi (20 January 2008)

i like ngf 4th biggest asx goldie,got me in the january tipping comp.lead they

are a quality producer,heaps of cash & on the prowl for another mine,2nd

i fancy heg soon to start trial mining & drilling bigtime as we speak,3rd on

grades alone but still along way off is bmy grades out of brilliant well at the

eric prospect of 165 g/t,at bohemia they hit 218 g/t,& 404 g/t @2.4m yep

thats 404 big ones in an 18 km shear zone all to themselves surrounded by

finds of 2m,2m,3m,5m oz finds north east of the old sons of gwalia mine,

brumby looks to have a huge amount to mine,now in 2nd phase drilling of

those huge grades,up 15% on friday so more likely of big grades again.....


----------



## Miner (22 January 2008)

tigerboi said:


> i like ngf 4th biggest asx goldie,got me in the january tipping comp.lead they
> 
> are a quality producer,heaps of cash & on the prowl for another mine,2nd
> 
> ...





aTTACHED TWO reports - Bell Potters and ASX on HEG


----------



## refined silver (26 January 2008)

Gold juniors are almost the most undervalued they've been compared to gold for the entire 8 yr gold bull. If gold keeps going, when these juniors play catch up, should see real fireworks. IMO anyone throwing away good gold juniors at these prices will regret it. The only proviso is that you CANNOT have these on margin, they are too volatile and you'll be whipsawed out of your position.


----------



## So_Cynical (27 January 2008)

I topped up my only explorer holding on Thursday at a ridiculous price, about 17% less than when i got 
in originally....SBS - Sub-Sahara Resources would appear to be 
way under valued considering the Friday ann.

Infill drilling results confirming the very high grades of its Zara project
*6m @ 89.62g/t...52 to 58 meters
4m @ 20.55g/t...10 to 14 meters
3m @ 34.98g/t...8.5 to 11.5 meters *

The worst result from the 6 best holes drilled was *5.5 meters of 3.2g/t @ 0 meters*

http://www.subsahara.com.au/reports/announce/2008/ASX-Release Zara 08-01-25 _final_.pdf

Theres so so so many under valued Jr's/explorers out there.


----------



## Whiskers (27 January 2008)

refined silver said:


> The only proviso is that you CANNOT have these on margin, they are too volatile and you'll be whipsawed out of your position.




*Absolutely agree*, refined silver.

I've taken to specialising in the small to med cap miners and although my position can go negative at times, I can afford to wait until the market recognises them and revalues accordingly. 

By not being geared and not getting squeezed into cash flow trouble I have only sold one at a loss (not because I had to, but because I got frustrated and sold one day too soon ) and on completed trades have doubled my money. 

Not a bad result, but I can now see where I can do much better.


----------



## jman2007 (27 January 2008)

So_Cynical said:


> I topped up my only explorer holding on Thursday at a ridiculous price, about 17% less than when i got
> in originally....SBS - Sub-Sahara Resources would appear to be
> way under valued considering the Friday ann.
> 
> ...




So what makes this Au play so "undervalued" compared to other players in the industry?...and how are you defining "undervalued"?

If you are simply comparing their MC and global resources against other companies in the sector, this will not be a reliable guide. For one, you have substansial geo-political risk in Eritrea, and to my mind, the exact level of Government involvement in any foreign owned mining operation needs to be clarified.  While infill drilling results can look impressive, all they are really saying is that "we drilled out a known ore body where we knew there was mineralisation"...big deal.

The questions investors really need to be asking instead of oodling over drilling intercepts, is where the heck these guys are going to get their *water* from for a mining operation, and what/if any type of local infrastructure is there available?  These factors will ultimately determine the success or failure of most operations.

jman


----------



## So_Cynical (27 January 2008)

jman2007 said:


> So what makes this Au play so "undervalued" compared to other players in the industry?...and how are you defining "undervalued"?



jman...i define value very simply ....SBS Sub-Sahara Resources, Zara project

Gold 760,000 ozs (so far)
760,000 x POG 910USD = 691mill USD 
cost per ozs to market (Approx) 350USD with 40% govt JV / SBS would get (approx) 255mill in profit 

SBS Sub-Sahara Resources has  
hard assets/cash 40 > 60 mill, including 3 other African JV's
debt = 0
Market cap 35mill......thats how i determine value....am i missing something?



jman2007 said:


> you have substansial geo-political risk in Eritrea, and to my mind, the exact level of Government involvement in any foreign owned mining operation needs to be clarified.




Bollocks!...The Eritrean Govt has clarified the matter, and the geopolitical risk is way over estimated...after all 1 party govts are the govt of choice for the US state dept and CIA.

Eritrea has stable 1 party system of govt, no local insurgency or racial, religious problems.
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Eritrea 



jman2007 said:


> While infill drilling results can look impressive, all they are really saying is that "we drilled out a known ore body where we knew there was mineralisation"...big deal.




I thought u were a Geo?...infill drilling is done to expand the resource within the known 
mineralization...infill drilling provides confidence and confirms 
consistency....i imagine its needed for JORC compliance?



jman2007 said:


> The questions investors really need to be asking instead of oodling
> over drilling intercepts, is where the heck these guys are going to get their *water* from
> for a mining operation, and what/if any type of local infrastructure is there available?  These
> factors will ultimately determine the success or failure of most operations.




I imagine like all mining operations where theres no local water....errr they will bring it in...im thinking 
trucks or a pipeline....how else would they bring it in?

And finally im thinking theres no way this wont go ahead...theres to much gold there thats to easy to get 
at, (as the mineralization is at the surface in places) for the project to not move to production.

Plus the Eritrean Govt needs the money....they owe the Chinese heaps.


----------



## jman2007 (27 January 2008)

So_Cynical said:


> jman...i define value very simply ....SBS Sub-Sahara Resources, Zara project
> 
> Gold 760,000 ozs (so far)
> 760,000 x POG 910USD = 691mill USD
> ...




Well I'll remember never to take any investment advice re African ventures from you my friend.  Here is what Richard Corbo, advisor to the CEO of MDN (who withdrew from Eritrea) says about the country, and I might add he knows a thing or two more about Eritrea than yourself, or me for that matter. He doesn't hold much faith in your Chinese argument either I'm afraid. 

“We don’t think the Chinese, whatever power or influence they have out there, will accept potential mining operations in which you invest and have to do everything from scratch. [China would say], ‘You’re trying to pay me with something that doesn’t exist, or it’s only potential.’

MDN drilled on the Haykota property in June 2006 on two targets. One hole returned 13 metres of 2.34 g/t Au at depths of 6 to 19 metres, including 3 metres of 3.52 g/t Au from 8 to 11 metres. Another hole returned 7 metres of 3.08 g/t Au at depths of 2 to 9 metres, including 2 metres of 9.03 g/t Au from 5 to 6 metres.

Since MDN’s withdrawal, only three foreign miners remain with projects in the country: Nevsun Resources [TSX:NSU; AMEX:NSU], Sunridge Gold Corp. [TSXv:SGC] and Sanu Resources [TSXv:SNU].

Corbo said MDN eventually decided to quit waiting on Eritrea after the company hadn’t seen any progress in nearly four years. Talks never made any headway, he said.

“We’ve been dealing with the minister of mines, and … discussions have always been very positive. They keep on saying to us, ‘Just be patient,’ and they never came through. The bottom line is that we simply cannot trust what’s going on up there.”

Alex Gorbansky, managing director of the Frontier Strategy Group, said Eritrea is a risky place for any miner.

“Eritrea is at the high end of the risk curve for the mining industry given unclear regulations, an authoritarian regime and the ongoing conflict with Ethiopia. Security is another major concern for Westerns ... The current risks in Eritrea and the dynamic situation on the ground make it off-limits to virtually all firms but those with the highest risk tolerance.”

Gee, sounds like a real blue-chip destination 

Well if you read any of my earlier posts you will see what infill drilling is for, my point being that many companies will try to create false momentum by drilling out known ore bodies and word the results in a very "particular" way. You have to be carfeul how you interpret these results.

Lol, water accessibilty is one of the things that can completely destroy a project. Do you realise just how prohibitively expensive it is to haul water in by road to feed a mill?... you can't just conveniently package these issues as a "done deal", in my experience water haulage and suppply is generally one of the critical components a lot of juniors overlook. If you ever get to visit a producing gold mine you will see what I mean.  

Now you finally might start getting the idea that labelling a company as "undervalued" isn't so straightforward as multiplying a few numbers together. You need to find out as much as you can, and find out about things you never would even have thought of before.

Well, I naturally expect you to disagree, but from a Geo who works for a gold company I can assure you these things matter.  At the end of the day it's your money, so good luck to you.

jman


----------



## Spaghetti (27 January 2008)

refined silver said:


> 4.  You might have mentioned it in a different post to the one quoted, but while great drill results often cause a price to fly, I personally prefer resources already there. Eg Take PGM - MC $37m - has over 2m oz Pt, and 50m oz PGM in Greenland including 10m oz Au. Why buy explorers with Market Caps of $40m with no resources when no matter how good their drill results they are not going to get within miles of resources like this? Same with $20m companies why buy without resources when for the same $20m you can get decent resources.





This confuses me no end. People who chase gold hopefuls atm have no real need to take such risks. Juniors with proven resources sit there waiting for the re-rating with sound resources sometimes cheaper than explorers with only drill samples and huge risk. Grade is a very misunderstood concept from my little knowledge on the subject. I think many look at average grades of say between 1.5g/t and 2g/t and do not like so rush to buy a company that publishes higher underground drill results that look far sexier. However the shallow lower grade deposits are the success story of gold mining in Australia from what I can tell. I see no proof underground mining has cheaper costs, in fact seem to have more issues/costs/problems.

Mind you if drill results indicated high grade shallow deposits then worth a punt but how often does anyone find them? Seems odd to want to gamble on such a find when sound, very probably ecomomic resources are so under-valued atm and far less riskier. If POG and junior re-rating takes off these will be multi-baggers. Meanwile some will still be waiting on drill results.


----------



## So_Cynical (27 January 2008)

jman2007 said:


> Now you finally might start getting the idea that labelling a company as "undervalued" isn't so straightforward as multiplying a few numbers together. You need to find out as much as you can, and find out about things you never would even have thought of before.



Apparently foster stockbroking think its undervalued as well
"i wonder if they know what there talking about...?"



			
				brokers report said:
			
		

> Given its cash and liquid investments of ca. $26m, and the potential for upgrades
> to its 760,000oz inferred resource at Koka, we believe SBS is *significantly
> undervalued*.



and thats with a cap of $56m.

The MDN issues were badly reported and answered by the relevant minister, the following from the SBS thread.

https://www.aussiestockforums.com/forums/showthread.php?t=3360&highlight=sbs

_1. MDN did
apply for the Haykota license and waited for a long
time. This is simply because the Ministry was in the process of assessing the
work programme accomplished by the different
exploration companies on the license areas that they were still holding. After
a while the Ministry had come to the conclusion that the companies needed to
invest more in their existing areas before they acquire additional licenses.
Consequently the Minister of Energy and Mines gave a written reply to MDN that
its application for an exploration licence will not
be granted and was advised to stick to its current license i.e
the Harab Suit area. It has also to be noted that
granting and/or refusing of a license application is the prerogative of the
Ministry of Energy and Mines.

2. Mr.
Becker's statement that MDN had drilled holes in the Haykota
area is totally unfounded. It has to be understood that no company is allowed
to drill or explore without a proper permit / license.

3. The
implication to give exploration licenses for Chinese companies in exchange for
arms is a totally unfounded and outrageous speculation. It is a simple logic
that no company whether it is Chinese or Western will make such kind of deals,
which is worth “billions of dollars of arms….” in an area that could be
potential but is hardly explored. We find this speculative statement
underestimates the Chinese judgment and certainly it is not the policy of the
Eritrean Government to make such kind of deals in the minerals sector.

4. Alex class=SpellE>Gorbansky was quoted to have said that “ w:st="on">Eritrea is a
risky place for any miner…”. As an analyst Mr. class=SpellE>Gorbansky is entitled to his opinion, however we would like
to make it clear that there are considerable number of Canadian, Australian,
Chinese and other companies are very keen to be granted a license. This is
hardly a sign of a high risk place to go.

We would like
to send a clear message to the existing exploration companies in w:st="on">Eritrea as well
as new incoming companies and Mr. Becker that despite the hiccups like the
temporary stoppage of exploration activities during September 2004, the policy
of the Ministry in the mineral sector is based on a transparent and solid
ground.

In conclusion
contrary to the speculation of Mr. Becker, w:st="on">Eritrea still remains a bright area
for mineral exploration and we are committed to reward all investors in the
mineral sector.

Alem Kibreab

Director General

Department of Mines

Ministry of Energy and Mines

P.O. Box 272 , Asmara , Eritrea

Tel: 002911-202889; Fax: 002911-124509_ 

*Theres no substitute for quality research.*


----------



## jman2007 (27 January 2008)

So_Cynical said:


> Apparently foster stockbroking think its undervalued as well
> "i wonder if they know what there talking about...?"
> 
> and thats with a cap of $56m.
> ...





Like I said b4,

It's your money and you can do what you want with it.

If I was you I'd be asking questions of people who actually work in the industry and trying to learn what is actually involved in getting a mine off the ground, rather than wasting your time worrying about what Mr Alem Kibreab tries to confirm or deny.

But hey, I guess some people know everything about everything.

jman


----------



## jman2007 (29 January 2008)

Spaghetti said:


> This confuses me no end. People who chase gold hopefuls atm have no real need to take such risks. Juniors with proven resources sit there waiting for the re-rating with sound resources sometimes cheaper than explorers with only drill samples and huge risk. Grade is a very misunderstood concept from my little knowledge on the subject. I think many look at average grades of say between 1.5g/t and 2g/t and do not like so rush to buy a company that publishes higher underground drill results that look far sexier. However the shallow lower grade deposits are the success story of gold mining in Australia from what I can tell. I see no proof underground mining has cheaper costs, in fact seem to have more issues/costs/problems.
> 
> Mind you if drill results indicated high grade shallow deposits then worth a punt but how often does anyone find them? Seems odd to want to gamble on such a find when sound, very probably ecomomic resources are so under-valued atm and far less riskier. If POG and junior re-rating takes off these will be multi-baggers. Meanwile some will still be waiting on drill results.




You're pretty much on the money Spag,

A shallow open pit operation will invariably run into less problems than a complicated underground setting, and be far cheaper (well most of the time).  The shallow multi-100K oz deposits are also getting harder and harder to find.  Take the Lancefield deposit for example, just outside Laverton WA.  Probably close to 500,000 oz remaining in the ground, yet if you visit the pit the most action you're likely to see are a few stray roos and goannas.  The problem being that the deposit is probably close to 20 levels underground with significant amounts of water to boot.

jman


----------



## refined silver (31 January 2008)

> Goldfields Ltd (GFI) SECOND QUARTER FISCAL 2008
> 
> Operating profit of R2 billion and net earnings of R1.9 billion in the quarter ended 31 December 2007
> 
> ...




This out today from 4th  biggest gold miner in world. Net profit up 350% (4.5times). By my calcs gives them a PE of under 10. When PEs in this sector can go from 40-50 to 10 in 1 qtr, this qtrs earnings reports might be the catalyst for gold shares to finally get going and play catch up to the price of gold.


----------



## jman2007 (17 February 2008)

Evening folks,

Been a bit quiet on this thread as of late.  Cheers to everyone for their input recently, which has raised a lot of interesting questions and provided some answers.  Went along to the RIU Explorers Conference 2008 in Fremantle earlier this week for a day.  Some interesting presentations from some aspiring Au mining and exploration companies, although I have to admit, I found it tough to get too excited over many of them.

I think one thing that has become clear on this thread is that it is very hard to put a "value" on exploration upside for a particular company, since exploration is all about managing exposure to risk.  At the same time, this is probably where the true multibaggers are likely to come from.  For my money, I have been researching a lot of near-term producers, and companies already in production to try and determine a good value stock, and lower my risk profile.

Looking at a few Aust companies from an operational perspective, I was surprised that I discovered what I percieved to be a higher-than-expected risk exposure: (not an exclusive list obviously)

*- Monarch Gold (MON):*

Broad resource base, but operational issues at Davyhurst mill which recently required another $10M for "continuing development".  Current costs 977/oz. Potentially will be placed under excessive financial strain with recent Mt Magnet aquisition.  Targeting 500Koz pa within 1-2 years, but recent cap raising proving difficult. Low cash reserves, significant shareholder dilution.

*- Regis Resources (RRL):*

No milling facility, capex of $148M for construction. Acquired Duketon area from Newmont, who in return acquired a significant shareholding. Resource base of 2.8M oz, but modest grade of 1.15g/t.  Running low on cash ($1.5M), and question marks imo over whether Moolart Well (1.5Moz) could ever be economic at 0.84 g/t.  Will likely require a JV partner to cover development costs.

*- Citigold (CTO):* Undervalued at 37c?? (Needs a t/a)

Recent operations constrained by power supply problems through the grid, reasonably impressive underground costs of $544/oz at 9.7 g/t during Dec quarter.  Geological complexity possibly creating difficulties in resource definition and modeling?  With power supply upgrade could ramp up production to 100Koz pa in 2008.  Likely that a $50M share placement will be required for continuing expansion. 

*- Integra Mining (IGR) *- THE PICK OF THE BUNCH FOR ME!

IGR really stand out for me. Global resource base of 1.6Moz @ 2.6g/t.* The clincher for me though is that they have 100% ownership of a gold processing facility!!* Refurishment to be carried out this year.  What I have heard about their management is positive, their MD, Chris Cairns (no relation to ex-kiwi cricketer) seems like one of those guys who have a knack of making things happening. He has a economic geology background which is encouraging (I always get worried when I hear that a lawyer or accountant is running a resource company). 

Crucially in these times of tightening credit markets, *IGR are well cashed-up, with $30M or so in cash reserves* and a reasonably tight capital structure (352M shares on issue). That could make all the difference between a fully-funded year or two of exploration and mill refurishment, and having to go to the market for funds leading to more and more dilution for current holders, as is happening to many companies. The depth and extent of drilling at the recent Salt Creek discovery (currently 250,000Koz @2.7g/t) is impressive, it suggests to me that these guys are serious about their exploration and have a good understanding of what it takes to drill out a known ore body and unlock the geological puzzle.

The Salt Creek prospect, at a first pass, looks like a  cracker of a discovery, and with global resources of 1.6M oz at a decent grade, a 100% owned mill ready to be refurbished, significant exploration upside and good cash reserves, I'd be keeping IGR on my watchlist for sure.  Salt Creek could turn out to be one of the more significant discoveries in recent times.

Logically, with potential continuation of exploration success in 2008, and with a successful phase of mill refurbishment this year, you could realistically expect a re-rating of the IGR sp to occurr.  Currently 44c, it may not turn out to be a multibagger, but the fundamentals here are looking exceptionally good.

Cheers
jman

Disclaimer: I DNH any of these stocks.  Do not take my advice as financial advice, as I am merely expressing my opinion based on available market information.


----------



## So_Cynical (17 February 2008)

Hey jman
I see u have been looking at the same company's that have interested me lately.

Re: Citigold and this comment.._Likely that a $50M share placement will be required for continuing expansion._ 
wondering where u got that info from as that would be the last nail in the coffin for 
many holders...even id sell at a loss it they do that....and then smite them...

U know CTO shut there mine for Xmas... what the hell sorta mine closes for Xmas :bs:

Its very hard to get to exited by miners with operations in Aust


----------



## jman2007 (17 February 2008)

So_Cynical said:


> Hey jman
> I see u have been looking at the same company's that have interested me lately.
> 
> Re: Citigold and this comment.._Likely that a $50M share placement will be required for continuing expansion._
> ...




Yes, I'm also finding it exceptionally difficult to identify good Au plays atm,

Re the Citigold comment, I read in the "Citigold outlook 2008" announcement released on the 19/12/2007 that (quote) "Raise significant commercial funding, estimated at $50 million, to accelerate development with minimal dilution of existing shareholders" was specified as a financial objective for 2008.

Their capital structure already looks a little bit loose...something like 650M shares on issue atm?

Lol, no I never knew they were closed over Xmass.  They're either extremely confident in their 2008 outlook, or they got sick of using candles to see what they were doing underground. 

jman


----------



## jman2007 (4 March 2008)

Go Nuke said:


> Hmm well I dont know where this ranks but I'll mention the info I can find (2006 Annual Report)
> 
> *Resolute Mining (RSG)*
> 
> ...




Go Nuke,

Thanks for bringing RSG to the fore mate, although I am kicking myself for not looking into this company more at the time, it's run pretty hard since late 07, from 1.60'ish to around 2.50 currently.

Still learning about RSG, so any additional info would be welcome. They appear to have a sizeable resource base of *11M oz* and ore reserves of around *3M oz*. RSG currenty working towards bringing the Syama project online in Mali, at first I was a little sceptical when I read about this.  However, Africa is no place for wimps, and if you're going to get a project happening in this part of the world, make sure it's bold, and make sure it's *big*.

Well that's what these guys seem to be doing, Syama has resources of *6M oz*, Resolute earning 80%, Mali Govt 20%. Hoping to begin mining the oxide cap 1H 2008, and targeting a 10+year mine life. The plant construction looks to be well advanced, with the grinding mills looking like they are in place, ready to be commissioned.

Go Nuke, as far as I can make out, RSG will begin a gradual hedging unwinding strategy over the next 2-3 years, and by 2011 will almost be hedge-free.

Ken, the cash costs at the Ravenswood operations were in QLD were running at approx. $781/oz during 06/07, so yep, probably some indication of issues with the underground ops there, any additional info welcome.

The Mt Wright development looks to be progressing more or less to plan, two stopes developed so far and metallurgical testwork showing good plant recoveries.  650K oz could be mined from Mt Wright, the $340/oz target looks to be a bit a little over-optimistic imo, but they could easily know something I don't.

This is another reason why I'm begining to pay more attention to African miners, particularly in West Africa. While Australian companies are struggling with staff shortages, modest grades, smaller resources and high costs per ounce, many newly explored Archean belts in Africa are fast turning into potential multi-million ounce projects in their own right. I more or less agree with So Cynical that the Australian gold sector is not looking particularly alluring atm.

Any comments welcome. DNH
jman

PS Also some other projects in the works down the East Coast of Africa that I haven't touched on here.


----------



## jman2007 (7 March 2008)

Watchlisted these goldies atm,

*IGR*: New support level above 50c, looking for entry point if this comes back below 47-48c

*CGX*: Sold out at 2.18, currently some resistance at 2.18-2.20. Due to recent upsurge, potential for profit-takers to come out of the woodwork very quickly.

*RSG*: Been in an uptrend since late 07 and recently peaked at 2.49, currently trading at 2.24. Unsure where support levels would be for this one, but looking for an entry.

*PRU*: (Hold) Bought in on the drop at 1.20, chartwise looks a little bit tenuous atm, potential for resource upgrades at Ayanfuri and Grumesa to provide further triggers however.

jman


----------



## Sean K (3 April 2008)

Revised basic comparison here.

Any changes to this please let us know.

Any additions, post them up.

Thanks to those adding the great information above esp Jman.

Doc attached.

Cheers.


----------



## SGB (3 April 2008)

kennas said:


> Revised basic comparison here..







Nice work kennas

cheers

SGB


----------



## JTLP (3 April 2008)

Kennas I think YT will be very disappointed you did not put MXR into the producers...with there massive JORC and all...:


----------



## grace (3 April 2008)

NAV have had a jorc upgrade to 950 000 oz at a grade of 2.1 - cheers and thanks for doing this!

Some 200 assay results due to come in very soon....


----------



## Sean K (3 April 2008)

JTLP said:


> Kennas I think YT will be very disappointed you did not put MXR into the producers...with there massive JORC and all...:



I'll try and fit it in. More to come you'd expect. 



grace said:


> NAV have had a jorc upgrade to 950 000 oz at a grade of 2.1 - cheers and thanks for doing this!
> 
> Some 200 assay results due to come in very soon....



Done, thanks. Keep us posted on the next assays and likely impact.


----------



## So_Cynical (3 April 2008)

Hey Kennas

*SBS* had a Resource increase to 1.04 million ounces of Gold at there Zara project, Koka deposit 
(Eritrea)...so there total across 3 projects would be over 2 million Oz.

Also id like to add  *EVG - Envirogold* to the list.
Market Cap:......23,751,569
Issued Shares:..197,929,744

EVG is due to start production in the first Q of 09 at there  Las Lagunas project in the 
Dominican Republic....its a tailings project using the ALBION process to recover the 
gold and silver, with out the acid downside. 

Indicated JORC Resource for Las Lagunas  is - 5.137mt @ 3.76g/t Au & 38.62g/t Ag 
for a total of, Gold 435,000 & Silver 3,974,000 Oz recoverable.

EVG also recently announced there intentions to go underground at the (closed since 84)
Huancay gold and silver mine in Peru.

EVG thread below
https://www.aussiestockforums.com/forums/showthread.php?t=7127


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## sleepy (3 April 2008)

Forgive the dumb question ... but is there only a handful of actual gold (and silver) PRODUCERS on the ASX? Ive been trying to find a definitive list of all the producers, and junior producers on ASX but not having much luck. 

I did find this though. Hopefully it will be of interest:

http://www.globalspeculator.com.au/documents/Newkidsonthegoldblock.pdf

sleepy


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## So_Cynical (3 April 2008)

sleepy said:


> Forgive the dumb question ... but is there only a handful of actual gold (and silver) PRODUCERS on the ASX? Ive been trying to find a definitive list of all the producers, and junior producers on ASX but not having much luck.
> 
> I did find this though. Hopefully it will be of interest:
> 
> ...




Its surprising how few there are...Aussie miners producing in Aust.

Theres at least 1 foreigner  producing here and dual listed here *IAU*
and another foreigner, listed here but producing in NZ *OGC*
and about a dozen Aussies producing only overseas including *TRY LGL CNT 
KCN (CGX producing?)*...mmm ok about a half dozen producers and about another 
half dozen near producers...including *ALD MDL EVG* etc

I'm sure theres a few ive forgotten about.


----------



## refined silver (4 April 2008)

sleepy said:


> Forgive the dumb question ... but is there only a handful of actual gold (and silver) PRODUCERS on the ASX? Ive been trying to find a definitive list of all the producers, and junior producers on ASX but not having much luck.
> 
> sleepy




As close to a definitive list as I think you will find. Broken down into large producers, small producers, development stage, and large and small explorers.

http://www.goldoz.com.au/stocks.0.html


----------



## jman2007 (5 April 2008)

Some great work here Kennas,

We'd probably have to go a long way to find a more comprehensive and informative list, other than external links etc. It's no small task capturing all this data and presenting it in a understandable format. There is a good mixture of greenfields exploration and fully-fledged producers here.

jman


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## Sean K (27 June 2008)

I have updated the spreadsheet with additional information on many of the companies and updated with their recent significant results. Doc is too big to paste up in the thread, so you will need to open it up as a file.

Any additions, please advise if you like, but include as much information as possible:

Shares on issue
Current SP
Resource base
Grades

etc etc.

Cheers,
kennas


----------



## Sean K (27 June 2008)

kennas said:


> I have updated the spreadsheet with additional information on many of the companies and updated with their recent significant results.



Sorry, I've ramped AZM in there as having 1m oz au, when they only have 500K JORC. Adjust the spreadsheet. 

Wonder how goldies will go today with US implosion and gold doing a stiffy. When will we get the decoupling of gold stocks to the overall market?


----------



## Sean K (5 July 2008)

kennas said:


> I have updated the spreadsheet with additional information on many of the companies and updated with their recent significant results. Doc is too big to paste up in the thread, so you will need to open it up as a file.
> 
> Any additions, please advise if you like, but include as much information as possible:
> 
> ...



Couple of anomalies in the speedsheet for discussion.

CTO at $18.5 for a developer/producer is really low. Really low....?

RSG at $38 for a producer is very low.

SBS at $9.3 looks cheap.

MML at $269 looks very expensive. 


Of course , my 2 explorer picks are KMN and AZM which still looks cheap on this comparison.


----------



## Sean K (12 July 2008)

I've updated the spreadsheet with current prices and a general comment on their charts.

The explorer end of town has been well and truly SMASHED recently with many at 1/3 their value from a few months ago, and many at multi year lows. It's carnage out there in the spec gold sector. 

Can only wonder about their turn around fortunes with a POG break up, but at the moment, the sin bin for most. 

Perhaps all the spec money is in IO, CSM and Poo?


----------



## JTLP (12 July 2008)

Hi Kennas,

Would you mind updating AVO to the producers list (as of last week )

G/T is around 4.0 and operating costs is around $369 per ounce.

Thanks,

JTLP


----------



## michael_selway (12 July 2008)

kennas said:


> I've updated the spreadsheet with current prices and a general comment on their charts.
> 
> The explorer end of town has been well and truly SMASHED recently with many at 1/3 their value from a few months ago, and many at multi year lows. It's carnage out there in the spec gold sector.
> 
> ...




I think ASX:GOLD might be a good one to look at also

thx

ms


----------



## Sean K (12 July 2008)

JTLP said:


> Hi Kennas,
> 
> Would you mind updating AVO to the producers list (as of last week )
> 
> ...



Done. 



Nice to be a producer right now.

Except for POO and wages and blah blah....

Are they hedged or not?


----------



## grace (12 July 2008)

I think the small caps have been getting murdered due to View Resources and Monarch Gold....both small gold producers who have gone broke! Not a good example for anyone hoping to start production, and shareholders have left the small caps in droves!

I hold NAV and am feeling pain all round!  However, gold will find new highs soon I hope.


----------



## bvbfan (19 July 2008)

A couple for your sheet

MDL 520mill shares, price 70c, cap 364mill, 2.7mill oz, costs450, annual production 165000 oz
CNT 900mill shares, price 1.10, cap 990mill, 12.5mill oz, costs?

MDL also has a zircon project to go in 2009/10


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## kbxk508 (22 July 2008)

The following chart I put together compares a number of AUS Gold Producers and shows, (i) EV per Ounce (Resource), (ii) Total Cost per Ounce (TCO), (iii) % Reserves as a Percentage of the Resource (% Reserves) and (iv) Net Financial Assets (NFA). Datasource GoldNerds (14/7/08).

These 4 factors are compared on a line graph and sorted in order of highest % Reserves to lowest.

In addition, there are horizontal averages for each of the categories (i) to (iv) to give you an indicative benchmark to what is normal.

While the graph may look intimidating at first glance, it is actually quite easy to follow once you understand how to use it. Use the following link http://www.globalspeculator.com.au/articles-newsletter.html to open the article "Australian Gold Company Comparison 08/05/08" for more information.

The higher the % Reserves the higher the value that is attributed to the companies overall ounces and is evident by a black line of best fit for EV per Ounce.

As noted in the article, the above indicators become very useful when scanning across potential investment opportunities. Starting with EV per Ounce you look for companies that sit significantly below the black line, i.e. the company is trading at an EV per Ounce that appears to be below what it should be, given the compilation of its reserves and resources.

Next, look at the TCO and NFA for the relevant companies to ensure they are within or better than the averages (horizontal lines). If they appear to be at satisfactory levels, you may have found an appropriate investment candidate worthy of further research. If on the other hand, they fail miserably in any of the other components, you may have your explanation as to why the ounces are comparatively cheap.


----------



## kbxk508 (27 July 2008)

Another comparison is to look at the *EV per Ounce of Production per Annum* for AUS Gold Producers. The attachment has two charts, (i) EV per Ounce of Production less than $10,000 A$ and (ii) EV per Ounce of Production greater than $10,000 A$.



To put these results into some perspective, here's a quote from _The Speculative Investor - Weekly Market Update for the Week Commencing 28th July 2008 _ 



> DOM's enterprise value is about A$230M, which means that it is being valued by the stock market at around A$2300 per ounce of production. This is low for a profitable gold mine in a politically secure jurisdiction. In a more buoyant stock market the company would probably command a valuation of A$3500-$4000 per ounce of production assuming a gold price of around US$900/oz.




kbxk508


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## jman2007 (27 July 2008)

kbxk508 said:


> While the graph may look intimidating at first glance, it is actually quite easy to follow once you understand how to use it. Use the following link http://www.globalspeculator.com.au/articles-newsletter.html to open the article "Australian Gold Company Comparison 08/05/08" for more information.




Looks like an interesting approach,

And one that I'll have to spend a bit more time looking at to fully understand and appreciate.

I find that one of the more difficult aspects to capture whilst researching any company would be the actual _quality_ of the resource, in terms of size and grade. 

Consider a hypothetical case of "Company A" under two different scenarios. In the first scenario, Company A has two JORC equivalent open pittable resources 35km apart, each containing 100,000oz Au @ 2 g/t, and in the second case, one single open pittable resource containing 200,000oz @ 2 g/t in an identical JORC category. Obviously the 200K oz pit would have a clear advantage over the two satellite deposits in terms of logisitics, mining costs etc. But potentially, the EV per oz wouldn't be able to distinguish between these cases.

Arguably a premium would already be incorporated into a company's sp for a "larger, higher quality" deposit, but I think a lot of people are confused when faced with distinguishing between "good ounces" vs "bad ounces", and how much they should be paying for each. Obviously % of resources converted to reserves goes a long way to establishing demonstrated economic viability for a proportion of the ounces, but imo this only goes so far in clarifying the waters.

Comments welcome
jman


----------



## So_Cynical (27 July 2008)

kbxk508 said:


> Another comparison is to look at the *EV per Ounce of Production per Annum* for AUS Gold Producers.




Couldn't help but notice that MON is on 1 of those charts...interesting considering 
they went ass up more than 3 weeks ago.

As jman  said there's good ounces and bad....i prefer to say, hard and easy, and 
ive yet to see a chart that successfully categorizes that.


----------



## jman2007 (28 July 2008)

So_Cynical said:


> Couldn't help but notice that MON is on 1 of those charts...interesting considering they went ass up more than 3 weeks ago.
> 
> As jman  said there's good ounces and bad....i prefer to say, hard and easy, and ive yet to see a chart that successfully categorizes that.




Yep, too true,

If in doubt stay out. MON and VRE were also both producers, which fundamentally speaking are ususally considered less riskier plays than a pure greenfields exploration play.

I guess it just goes to show that vigliance is required at all times, like it says in the attached article. Unfortunately things like production schedules and pit optimizations etc are incredibly sensitive to small changes in commodity prices and operating costs, which is why it is so important to get it right from the word go. 

jman


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## jman2007 (28 July 2008)

kennas said:


> I've updated the spreadsheet with current prices and a general comment on their charts.
> 
> The explorer end of town has been well and truly SMASHED recently with many at 1/3 their value from a few months ago, and many at multi year lows. It's carnage out there in the spec gold sector.
> 
> Perhaps all the spec money is in IO, CSM and Poo?




Hhmm yeah,

Explorers/developers definitely up against a hostile market atm, probably the smart money has been pulled out to prop up other resurgent/recovering sectors. I think most of us are hanging tough atm and licking some pretty substansial wounds.


----------



## kbxk508 (28 July 2008)

jman2007 said:


> Looks like an interesting approach,
> 
> And one that I'll have to spend a bit more time looking at to fully understand and appreciate. ...
> 
> ...




Hi jman,

Just to clarify some of the key data in the chart,

Net Financial Position, NFP = Market Cap - EV, NFP% = NFP/Market Cap

If NFP is positive that's a good sign. If it's negative, it means they owe more money than they have in liquid assets at the moment. What's critical is how large this Net Financial Position (NFP) is compared to the Market Cap.



> VRE announced on Dec 31 2007 that it was "Unhedged, Debt Free and moving to steady state production". The catch was, it planned to pay of its debts with proceeds from the sale of the nickel interest for $22m, for which it had signed a "Heads of Agreement". But when the nickel property sale fell through on Feb 11, the debts could not be paid. Combined with an unexpectedly lower production from one property, the company went into voluntary administration merely 5 weeks after this quaterly announcement. One of the few clues to their risk level was their NFP%. Their cash and assets were around $11m. Debts, were $37m, and Market Cap was $50m. So their EV was a lot higher than their Market Cap. Their NFP% was around -50%. In other words, VRE owed about $25m above and beyond their liquid assets, which was equivalent to their Market Cap.




To illustrate this,

I put together the same chart (re: attachment) using the same Aus gold producers - only this time I've added VRE and MON into the mix and taken AQP out. The date is 24/3/08 (a time when MON was trading, VRE was in administration and the data reflects its position just prior to that occurrence).

In both cases NFP% was woeful.

2. Total Cost per Ounce (TCO) = (EV + Development Cost)/Mineable Oz + Cash Cost per Ounce of Production

Mineable Oz = 100% Reserve + 60% (Resource - Reserve)

It takes into account, the current share price, cash, debt, investments, hedging, liabilities, as well as the development capital needed to build the mines and acquire mining equipment, and the operational costs to mine the gold. It's all expressed per ounce of mineable gold.

Just a word of caution, 

TCO depends on every bit of input data. Each bit of input data has some uncertainty, and the uncertainties CAN mount up. 

Treat TCO comparisons between companies at different stages of the gold company life-cycle (explorer, developer, or producer) with much caution - they are only approximate. Even TCO comparisons between producers are only indicative, because cash costs are only indicative.

kbxk508


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## kbxk508 (28 July 2008)

So_Cynical said:


> Couldn't help but notice that MON is on 1 of those charts...interesting considering
> they went ass up more than 3 weeks ago.
> 
> As jman  said there's good ounces and bad....i prefer to say, hard and easy, and
> ive yet to see a chart that successfully categorizes that.




Hi So_Cynical,

Well picked up, and I guess when they went ass up their EV per Ounce of Production went to infinity.

Refer to my previous post regarding their Net Financial Position, i.e. NFP%. On 24/3/08 and still trading, it was *-90%*, [Cash 11.5 A$m, Investments 1.5 A$m, Liabilities 93.8 A$m, Market Cap 80 A$m and EV 152 A$m].

kbxk508


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## So_Cynical (29 July 2008)

Nice Charts kbxk508...makes TRY look darn good anyway  and helps explain 
the SP weakness in NFG-Norton and AGG-Anglo.

Can u put MDL in that chart using there projected figures.?


----------



## kbxk508 (31 July 2008)

So_Cynical said:


> Nice Charts kbxk508...makes TRY look darn good anyway  and helps explain
> the SP weakness in NFG-Norton and AGG-Anglo.
> 
> Can u put MDL in that chart using there projected figures.?




Hi So_Cynical,

Mineral Deposits MDL, current stats

[Reserve: 1.25 mOz, Resource: 2.47 mOz]

Market Cap = 331.1 A$m, EV per Ounce (Resource) = 132.8 A$, Total Cost per Ounce = 600.3 A$ and NFA = 0.95% 

Looking to produce >150 kOz pa (min) by Dec Qtr.


----------



## Sean K (31 July 2008)

kbxk508 said:


> Hi So_Cynical,
> 
> Mineral Deposits MDL, current stats
> 
> ...



kbxk508, just curious, are you putting these charts together, or just cut and pasting them from somewhere else?



kbxk508 said:


> The following chart I put together compares a number of AUS Gold Producers and shows, (i) EV per Ounce (Resource), (ii) Total Cost per Ounce (TCO), (iii) % Reserves as a Percentage of the Resource (% Reserves) and (iv) Net Financial Assets (NFA). Datasource GoldNerds (14/7/08).



Or, are you telling us that you are the author?


----------



## Uncle Festivus (31 July 2008)

kennas said:


> kbxk508, just curious, are you putting these charts together, or just cut and pasting them from somewhere else?
> 
> Or, are you telling us that you are the author?




Datasource GoldNerds????


----------



## kbxk508 (31 July 2008)

Uncle Festivus said:


> Datasource GoldNerds????




Hi Uncle Festivus,

You're right, but not the author, I did mention it in one of my earlier posts (I think).

I like playing with the data, charting and analysing it and with some that interest me I do a thorough check and have my own inputs etc. They're pretty spot on most of the time.

PS: I'm a newbie, so just finding my way round, cheers!    

kbxk508


----------



## kbxk508 (31 July 2008)

kennas said:


> kbxk508, just curious, are you putting these charts together, or just cut and pasting them from somewhere else?
> 
> Or, are you telling us that you are the author?




Hi kennas,

The analysis and data is mostly Goldnerds, but the charts I create on excel - I create it and then copy and paste it onto MS Word before uploading, cheers.

kbxk508


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## Uncle Festivus (1 August 2008)

Just wondering if the cyclical bull will reappear this year, gold stocks certainly have taken a battering in the face of a relatively 'stable' gold price? Dare I say it, oversold! LGL in particular has now entered steep discount to it's JORC reserve valuation of approx $5.45 (BGF Equities report). Whether these will be true bargains in as soon as a months time remains to be seen, but I am entering some at these levels now 

Chart of XGD All Ords Gold Index - descending wedge looking for a bullish break out?


----------



## Nicks (2 August 2008)

kbxk508 said:


> Hi Uncle Festivus,
> 
> You're right, but not the author, I did mention it in one of my earlier posts (I think).
> 
> ...




Good job taking the effort to re-do the chart with currrent figures.


----------



## Sean K (2 August 2008)

kbxk508 said:


> Hi kennas,
> 
> The analysis and data is mostly Goldnerds, but the charts I create on excel - I create it and then copy and paste it onto MS Word before uploading, cheers.
> 
> kbxk508



Cheers, I have started adding in EV in my spreedsheet as well. I'm finding it hard to get the asset valuations from the available information though, so I'm just doing MC less cash / $oz au at spot. Is that good enough? kennas


----------



## kbxk508 (3 August 2008)

kennas said:


> Cheers, I have started adding in EV in my spreedsheet as well. I'm finding it hard to get the asset valuations from the available information though, so I'm just doing MC less cash / $oz au at spot. Is that good enough? kennas




Hi kennas,

Is that EV = MC - Cash? not sure if you should be dividing spot GOLD.

I'm using EV = MC - Liquid Assets + Total Liabilities.

Liquid Assets: includes cash, investments, inventories, receivables and deferred tax, (should be in their Qtr/Half or Annual Statements).

Total Liabilities (Current + Non Current): Half Year and/or Annual Report. 

If liquid assets are mostly cash then I would say YES otherwise it will be very different e.g.

TRY (MC = 133 A$m), at June 30 had cash 14.5 A$m and investments 47.6 A$m - removing the investment component out of the equation would give you a much higher EV than what it is (imo). 

PS: On July 18 TRY sold this investment and so are cashed up NOW.

Anyway, I've included some data fyi (as usual DYOR).

kbxk508


----------



## kbxk508 (3 August 2008)

kbxk508 said:


> The following chart I put together compares a number of AUS Gold Producers and shows, (i) EV per Ounce (Resource), (ii) Total Cost per Ounce (TCO), (iii) % Reserves as a Percentage of the Resource (% Reserves) and (iv) Net Financial Assets (NFA). Datasource GoldNerds (14/7/08).




The TCO for AQP Aquarius Platinum (near 200 A$/oz), was incorrect :error: on my 22-July chart. A value of approx. 830 A$/oz  (re: attach) is more appropriate given their Jun Qtr stats (as usual DYOR).

AQP has 6 mines and is a major producer of Platinum (59.5%) Paladium (28.5%) and to a lesser extent Gold (1%) and some Base Metals (Nickel & Copper).

kbxk508


----------



## kbxk508 (4 August 2008)

kbxk508 said:


> The TCO for AQP Aquarius Platinum (near 200 A$/oz), was incorrect :error: on my 22-July chart. A value of approx. 830 A$/oz  (re: attach) is more appropriate given their Jun Qtr stats (as usual DYOR).
> 
> kbxk508




Correction: Should be Cash Cost per Ounce, not Total Cost per Ounce (TCO) - did not include EV and Development Cost, cheers

kbxk508


----------



## refined silver (4 August 2008)

Uncle Festivus said:


> Just wondering if the cyclical bull will reappear this year, gold stocks certainly have taken a battering in the face of a relatively 'stable' gold price? Dare I say it, oversold! LGL in particular has now entered steep discount to it's JORC reserve valuation of approx $5.45 (BGF Equities report). Whether these will be true bargains in as soon as a months time remains to be seen, but I am entering some at these levels now
> 
> Chart of XGD All Ords Gold Index - descending wedge looking for a bullish break out?




Longer term view of XAU - testing breakout (about done), then up, up and away???


----------



## Sean K (6 August 2008)

AGG are on the prowl.

Any likely Aussie add on's?


*DJ REPEAT&CORRECT: Anglogold Ashanti Pursing Acquisitions*
06/08/2008 12:29PM AEST    

KALGOORLIE, Australia (Dow Jones)--AngloGold Ashanti Ltd. (AGG.AU) Chief Executive Mark Cutifani said Wednesday the gold miner is aggressively chasing production growth by turning around underperforming operations and will also consider acquisitions. 

Cutifani said that company is reshaping its portfolio of assets and will continue to look for acquisitions, although many gold assets look expensive at the moment. 

"M&A is probably the most expensive way to add ounces to the portfolio, (but) it remains one of the options," he told the Diggers and Dealers conference in Kalgoorlie. 

In Brazil, Cutifani said the company is aiming to boost the size of the business by 50% over the next five years. 

Cutifani said the miner expects to produce between 4.9 million and 5.1 million ounces of gold in 2008 and more than that in 2009


----------



## So_Cynical (6 August 2008)

kennas said:


> AGG are on the prowl.
> 
> Any likely Aussie add on's?




I thought they were near broke.

Big debts and big production troubles in south Africa....if there looking to expand 
why not fast track Tropicana :dunno: after all its a 4 million oz deposit.


----------



## kbxk508 (14 August 2008)

Last 30 days gold drop in A$ from 999.91 to 930.65 (yesterday). Not much in % terms when you consider how much stocks have given away over the same period.

The DOW is losing big tonight and gold is now 955.77 A$ and rising so I'd expect today may be when Aus Gold stocks should start to recover big losses and then some.

kbxk508


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## drillinto (30 January 2009)

Which gold producers give you the best chance at doubling your money in 2009 ?


----------



## So_Cynical (30 January 2009)

drillinto said:


> Which gold producers give you the best chance at doubling your money in 2009 ?




Well that will depend completely on the POG...and how well u timed your entry.

Idea entry is gone so far cos it was in Sept Oct Nov 08..i would imagine if POG was 
to see 1300 USD sometime in the next 3 or 4 months...u would double your money 
buying almost any gold producer or perhaps even explorer.

I brought MDL TRY LGL and IAU in Sept Oct Nov 08

Its a funny market. :


----------



## drillinto (2 February 2009)

Gold was the bright spot of the Market

*******************************************

February 01, 2009

That Was The Week That Was … In Australia

By Our Man in Oz >> www.minesite.com

Minews. Good morning Australia. Your comments when we last spoke, about gold shares getting set for an upward run, seem to have been fairly accurate. 

Oz. Thanks, but there was no need for a crystal ball then and no need now, because we appear likely to have a repeat performance when our market re-opens on Monday. Just like last week, the big move in the gold price occurred after the Australian market closed on Friday, and while every listed gold stock rose last week, an even better response can be expected next week thanks to one very simple fact - according to the calculations of your man in Oz, the gold price in Australian dollar terms hit an all-time high late on Friday when we were all tucked up in bed, or else watching South Africa thump the Australian cricket team in a day/night game in Perth.

Minews. Commiserations about the cricket. Tell more about your gold price. 

Oz. Well, it’s not official, but according to the numbers posted by the Bloomberg wire service, gold in New York was trading around US$927.30 an ounce late on Friday. At the same time the Australian dollar exchange rate fell to around US63.76c. Divide one by the other and you get an Australian dollar gold price of A$1,454 per ounce, a record in my books. A week ago the Australian gold price was around A$1,300 per ounce, which means the combination of the gold price and the currency effect has delivered a price rise of 11.8 per cent in a week, with much of that upward move yet to show through in local share prices. 

Minews. Okay, but let’s concentrate on what we know about last week’s market and let next week take care of itself. 

Oz. Understood, but that still means we have to start with the gold sector because that’s where the best action was. Uranium stocks stirred pleasantly, and the iron ore sector showed some signs of sparking into life amid reports that we’ve seen the bottom of the spot-market price cutting. Base metals, apart from some signs of life among the copper stocks, were flat, while coal shares picked up, in line with a slightly higher oil price. 

Overall, the metals and mining index (XMM) rose a rather impressive 8.9 per cent last week, though that increase needs to be seen against the recent run of very bad weeks. At 3,046.9 the XMM index is back to exactly where it was on 31st December. 

Minews. Time for prices, starting with gold, please. 

Oz. Best performer of the week was Andean Resources (AND), the Argentinean-focused explorer which was once a takeover target for Kingsgate Resources (KCN). Excellent drill results from Andean’s Cerro Negro project, including 32 metres assaying 34.6 grams a tonne of gold, sent the shares up by 69 per cent to A$1.32. The company says drilling is continuing, and that the Eureka zone at Cerro Negro is shaping as a world-class epithermal gold discovery. 

Other gold stocks did well, but didn’t come close to Andean’s performance. Kingsgate, which is making brisk progress in getting back on song, after a year waiting for assorted government approvals to allow the expansion of its Chatree mine in Thailand, rose by A31 cents to A$3.76. Bendigo Mining (BDG) had a promising week. This company has struggled for the best part of two decades to master the tricky geology which lies under the Victoria city which was once home to Australia’s most prolific goldfield. But recent news at least, has been good. Bendigo reported strong December quarter production and the discovery of two new gold reefs. That was enough to lift the shares by 17.8 per cent to A16.5 cents. Also on the up was Centamin Egypt (CNT) which came back strongly after a modest sell-off when it raised additional funds to complete its Sukari mine in Egypt. Centamin rose A7 cents to A86.5 cents. 

Minews. Keep an eye on Centamin. It might be worth a detailed update report if you have time. 

Oz. Agreed. It is looking very interesting. Let’s move quickly through a few more gold companies before we shift our focus to iron ore and elsewhere. Troy (TRY) reclaimed more lost ground last week with a rise of A7 cents to A$1.03. Perseus (PRU) continues to gather support for its Ayanfuri project in Ghana, the shares rising 22.5 per cent to A73.5 cents. Three months ago Perseus was in the cellar at A20 cents. Resolute (RSG) is also reclaiming lost ground after fighting hard to raise extra cash for its Syama goldmine in Mali. Resolute rose A3 cents last week to A42.5 cents. Independence (IGO) was one of the stronger gold performers, rising by 15.8 per cent to A$2.49. This strength was partly due to speculation that AngloGold Ashanti will allocate some of the US$1.1 billion it raised last week through the sale of a one-third interest in the Boddington mine to purchase the minority stake Independence has in the Tropicana gold discovery. 

Minews. An interesting theory in regard to Independence. Best keep an eye on it too. Now time to switch, perhaps, to uranium which seems to be heating up 

Oz. Most of the interest in the uranium space was focused on the remarkably strong profit report from Energy Resources of Australia (ERA), which is effectively a subsidiary of Rio Tinto. ERA reported a 191 per cent increase in profits to A$222 million, which served as a nice reminder that even if the spot uranium price has fallen, the long term price remains very high. On the market, ERA rose A$1.10 to A$19.35. Extract (EXT) also performed strongly with a rise of 11 per cent to A$1.62 as it updated the market on its Rossing South discovery, and Uranex (UNX) rose A1 cent to A17 cents. 

Minews. Now across to iron ore, please. 

Oz. Fortescue Metals (FMG) made all the iron ore noise last week, though it didn’t move much on the market. It reported a paper profit of more than A$1 billion, but it was largely due to an accounting shuffle relating to future obligations. Investors saw through the move, and the shares rose only by a very modest A3 cents to A$1.77. Gindalbie Metals (GBG) was a bigger winner in the week, as it delivered a rise of 11.7 per cent to A57 cents ahead of approaches a series of key decision points for its Karara iron ore mine. Other movers included BC Iron (BCI), which rose 12.9 per cent to A39 cents, and Atlas Iron (AGO), which rose A2 cents to A$1.19. Moving down, but a stock worth watching was Talisman Mining (TLM). It dropped by 22.2 per cent to A14 cents, but is showing every indication of being the “return” corporate vehicle of Kerry Harmanis, the man who walked off with A$500 million in his back pocket after selling Jubilee Mines to Xstrata at the peak of the boom. A series of recent executive appointments indicate that ex-Jubilee staff are flocking to join Talisman. 

Minews. That makes Talisman the third company for you to keep a close eye on. Base metals and coal please. 

Oz. Nickel, copper, and zinc continue to bounce along the bottom, with little exciting news to report. Kagara (KZL) caused a bit of a stir with news that it might be seeking fresh funds. The rumour didn’t frighten the market, though, and the shares rose A2 cents to A42 cents. Mincor (MCR) managed a rise of half a cent to A63.5 cents, and Albidon (ALB) rose one tenth of a cent to A8 cents after it announced a capital raising. 

Equinox (EQN) was one the best of the copper stocks, rising another A6 cents to A$1.92, while Anvil (AVM) rose 11 per cent to A$2.00, but in very thin trade. Zinc stocks were uniformly flat. 

Coal stocks were generally stronger, without any real surprises. Centennial (CEY) was the strongest, rising 21 per cent to A$2.83. Felix (FLX) rose A10 cents to A$6.90, and Coal of Africa (CZA) crept A1 cent high to A82 cents. 

Minews. Thanks Oz. Keep those gold stocks moving.


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## drillinto (15 February 2009)

February 14, 2009

That Was The Week That Was … In Australia
By Our Man in Oz >> www.minesite.com

Minews. Good morning Australia. You seem to have had another positive week. 

Oz. It was, and what’s more, this week’s upward momentum was a continuation of a trend that has been evident for the past few weeks now. In fact, if you trawl back through the data you find that the mining sector is trading at its highest level in three months. No-one is running about shouting that the boom has returned, but there is undoubtedly a more optimistic tone in the market.

Minews. Presumably it’s gold leading the way. 

Oz. The straightforward response to that statement is: “yes”. But as you dig into the detail it does become apparent that there was a positive mood right across the sectors last week, and even some of our base metal stocks improved after a terrible run over the past six months or so. Overall the mining market, as measured by the XMM index, was up a respectable 3.7 per cent, just ahead of the all ordinaries, the measurement for the entire Australian market, which was up by 2.6 per cent. The gold sector was aided by the twin boost which came from a lower dollar exchange rate and higher US dollar price for gold. At the close on Friday night gold down this way was fetching A$1,450 an ounce, an all-time record. And, as one miner told your Man in Oz bluntly this week: “if you can’t make money at more than A$1,000 an ounce you ought to quit”. 

Minews. Let’s start our weekly survey with a look at the gold space and then roam across the sectors. 

Oz. Most gold stocks ended the week comfortably ahead, although there were a few exceptions. One of the best performances came from a stock we don’t hear much about, Argonaut Resources (ARE). It reported a suite of excellent assays from an exploration project in Laos. As a result its share price almost doubled in a day. The best intersection from the company’s Houai Khouay prospect was a 24 metre zone grading 25.5 grams of gold a tonne, with an eight metre section inside that intercept assaying 71.8 grams a tonne. Those results super-charged Argonaut which closed on Friday at A9 cents, a rise of just under 70 per cent 

Minews. Good to see that exploration and discovery are back in favour with your investors. 

Oz. It is. And Silver Lake (SLR) was another stock that attracted investor attention simply because it is getting on with the business of finding and producing gold. We took a look at the company mid-week, and that, it seems, was fairly timely, as the company’s shares had risen 18 per cent by the time the week was out, closing at A32.5 cents. That rise was thanks entirely to the company delivering on its promise to increase gold output. Troy Resources (TRY) also produced a more than useful price rise. It closed at A$1.35, up 17.4 per cent, after trading as high as A$1.44 at one stage on Friday. In late November, Troy dropped to a low of A67 cents, which, when you tot it up, means that Troy is getting awfully close to having pulled off a double-your money exercise in three months. To be fair, though, buyers were pretty thin on the ground back in those bleak November days so not many will have benefitted from that particular theoretical 100 per cent return.  

Also on the way up this week was Kingsgate Consolidated (KCN) which has shaken off last year’s doubts over slow government decision making in Thailand. Kingsgate closed on Friday at A$3.99, up 11.1 per cent, although it did get as high as A$4.07 on Thursday. Meanwhile, Centamin (CNT) was the focus of much attention at Cape Town’s Indaba mining conference early in the week, as it announced the start of mining operations at its Sukari project in Egypt. In response shares in Centamin rose a relatively modest A4 cents to A$1.13, though that price needs to be measured against the low of A55 cents that the shares hit last October. 

Minews. There is a pattern emerging in those prices, isn’t there? Quite a few gold stocks seem to have doubled, or come close to doubling, since we reached the depth of the sell-off. 

Oz. That does seem to be the picture we’re seeing today. Last year was very much about forced selling to meet margin calls, not to mention a general stampede for the exit because someone claimed that the sky was falling in. Today, we’re seeing a far more rational market, and the reappearance of bargain-basement buyers. So let’s now move quickly through the gold stocks and then flick across to the rest of the market to see if we can discern any patterns elsewhere. Other gold risers included Resolute (RSG), up 13.4 per cent to A63.5 cents, Adamus (ADU) up A2 cents to A24 cents, Avoca (AVO) was up A13 cents to A$1.88, and Dragon Mountain (DMG), up 15 per cent to A11.5 cents. The only fall of significance came from Perseus (PRU) which dropped 13.7 per cent to A70 cents. However this was largely because the company has risen so far, so quickly - profit takers just had to clip the stock back a bit. A few months ago, Perseus was trading at just A20 cents. 

Minews. Iron ore now, please. 

Oz. This was another sector which was largely dominated by good news, perhaps thanks to interest in the value that Rio Tinto’s iron ore division is afforded through its controversial deal with China Inc. Fortescue Metals (FMG), which could be a major beneficiary of a revival in iron ore interest, hit a three-month high of A$2.81, up 21.1 per cent for the week. Atlas (AGO) also continued a recovery that comes in the wake of a few difficult months, rising another A8 cents to A$1.26. Meanwhile, Northern Iron (NFE) announced a major upgrade of resources at its Norwegian magnetite project, and rose A4 cents to A$1.22. Also on the up was BC Iron (BCI), which rose by 15 per cent to A42 cents, and Territory Iron (TTY), up half a cent to A15 cents. Saving the best for last, a relative unknown called Warwick Resources (WRK) delivered the best rise of the week as it announced excellent assay results at its Woggaginna discovery. Shares in Warwick rose by 80 per cent to A18 cents. 

Minews. Base metals and uranium to finish, please. 

Oz. The overall trend in base metals trend remained mixed, but it was just about possible to discern an upward drift. Among the nickel stocks Albidon (ALB) added 12.8 per cent back on to its value to close at A8.6 cents. This after it attracted a bit of interest at Indaba. Independence (IGO), perhaps more because of its gold assets, rose 11.3 per cent to A$2.86, while Fox Resources (FXI) reported fresh assays from its Radio Hill mine, and rose A2.5 cents to A54.5 cents. On the way down, Mincor (MCR) slipped A3 cents lower to A68.5 cents, and Western Areas (WSA) fell A13 cents to A$3.88. 

Copper stocks put in a similarly mixed performance, although one rather interesting upward move stood out from the crowd. Bougainville Copper (BOC), a real blast from the past, leapt back into the headlines after a 20 year absence. The Papua New Guinea-focused Rio Tinto subsidiary, which you would have to think is for sale, reported a fresh resource calculation of more than one billion tonnes of ore containing three million tonnes of copper and nine million ounces of gold. There are the usual impediments to re-development, such as ongoing tribal warfare in the neighbourhood, but the upgraded resource announcement re-kindled interest and Bougainville rose by 19 per cent to A80 cents. Other copper movers included Marengo (MGO), which was up by 14.5 per cent at A5.5 cents, and Equinox (EQN), which slipped back by A10 cents to A$2.00. 

Zinc stocks were generally flat, though Bass Metals (BSM) reported encouraging assays from its Tasmanian project, and rose 12.2 per cent to A11 cents as a result, and Kagara (KZL), which is spending less time on zinc these days and more on nickel, rose an eye-catching 27.8 per cent to A46 cents. 

The uranium sector also showed a pleasing upward trend, and there was one stand-out worth noting. Extract Resources (EXT) rose 19.7 per cent to A$1.82, as interest builds in its large Namibian resource and the corporate games that swirl around the company. What made last week’s share price rise from Extract especially interesting was that it is one of the first companies in months to post a price which represents a 12-month high. That has to be a red-letter event, after such an awful period of reporting 12-month share price lows. Other uranium movers included Mantra (MRA), which rose a very respectable 22.2 per cent to A$1.10 after it upgraded its Tanzanian projects and engaged in a bit of marketing at Indaba, and Bannerman (BMN), which rode the revived interest in Namibian uranium with a rise of 17.6 per cent to A73.5 cents. 

Minews. Thanks Oz.


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## kbxk508 (15 February 2009)

Aus Gold stocks performance since 21-Nov 2008.
Average Gain 73% Nice!

Standouts: Medusa (MML) 237%, Andean (ADL) 193%, Brockman (BRM) 157%, Perseus (PRU) 180%, Intrepid (IAU) 200%, OceanaGold (OGC) 162% & Dragon (DRA) 367%.

kbxk508


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## So_Cynical (15 February 2009)

Interesting chart kbxk508

Notice how almost all the producers are above the average, perhaps its the 2 producers well 
below the average that will be the next to run....RSG & CTO

:dunno:


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## jman2007 (15 February 2009)

kbxk508 said:


> Aus Gold stocks performance since 21-Nov 2008.
> Average Gain 73% Nice!
> 
> kbxk508




That's some very interesting data kbxk,

Someone who was statistically minded could have a real field day with that dataset and no doubt bring to light some of the more subtle trends too.

Some of the standout performers also have their main base of operations outside Australia, perhaps Australian investors are finally coming to terms with the notion of geo-politcal risk and catching up with their Canadian counterparts? 

The way the performance data is skewed towards the producers and advanced explorers suggests that _generally_ investors have had little empathy for the micro-cap explorers - although there have still been some exceptional turn-arounds in this bracket too.

Maybe it's time for some consolidation at the micro-cap end of the market?

jman


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## JTLP (17 February 2009)

Intriguing...

Can anybody explain to me why most of the goldies (producers mainly) took a sharp turn up at the end of the day with increased volume?

Any scary news out there?

JTLP


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## aleckara (17 February 2009)

JTLP said:


> Intriguing...
> 
> Can anybody explain to me why most of the goldies (producers mainly) took a sharp turn up at the end of the day with increased volume?
> 
> ...




Sharp turn up? Well the gold price jumped to 957US at the end of the day. Gold has been doing exceptionally well. Sad I missed the boat on it - was a sceptic on the inflationary scenario however its looking like gold may win atm.


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## So_Cynical (17 February 2009)

JTLP said:


> Intriguing...
> 
> Can anybody explain to me why most of the goldies (producers mainly) took a sharp turn up at the end of the day with increased volume?
> 
> ...




Gold up sharply in the HK time zone, and that's unusual...apparently the Japanese are 
buying, DOW tipped to fall tonight so POG should continue the climb up...New Australian 
dollar record high today.

Noticed tonight that the explorers with proven reserves have started to move up as well.


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## Sean K (14 March 2009)

Didn't know where to put this but thought here might just as well do.

As an indication of what your current small producer might be worth (generally) Gammon has just taken Capital Gold in Canada, valuing Capital at $168m Canadian. 

From what I can find they only have 830,000 oz au as probable and proven. At only .6 g/t. 

 


*Gammon Gold snaps up junior gold producer Capital Gold Corp in all share deal*
by Ian Mclelland

Shares in Gammon Gold (TSX: GAM, NYSE: GRS) slipped 7.5% in trading after the company announced that it had entered into an agreement to acquire junior gold producer, Capital Gold Corporation (TSX: CGC) in an all share deal.  Shares in Capital Gold climbed 7.5%, valuing the company at approximately C$168 million.  Gammon Gold’s market capitalization is currently C$1.15 billion.

Gammon Gold is offering 0.1028 shares for each Capital Gold share, which represents a 29% premium to Capital Gold shareholders based on the 10 day volume weighted average trading prices of Gammon Gold and Capital Gold up to the 11th March, 2009.

Capital Gold’s COO, John Brownlie, will join the board of Gammon Gold.

*Capital Gold is a one asset company, having successfully moved the El Chanate Gold Mine in Mexico into production in June 2007.  El Chanate is a small, low cost open pit heap leach gold mine which produced 24,690 ounces in the six month to January 31, 2009. 

Gammon Gold operates two gold mines in Mexico which were expected to produce between 250,000 and 265,000 gold equivalent ounces in 2008.*


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## Manager123 (21 March 2009)

and what about Moto Goldmines? Read this:
http://www.motogoldmines.com/aurora...ement - 02 03 2009  - OFS Results - FINAL.pdf


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## So_Cynical (21 March 2009)

Manager123 said:


> and what about Moto Goldmines? Read this:
> http://www.motogoldmines.com/aurora...ement - 02 03 2009  - OFS Results - FINAL.pdf




Democratic Republic of Congo...that's where u lost me.

Democratic Republic of Congo - A Risk Assessment Brief 2002
http://www.carleton.ca/cifp/app/serve.php/1091.pdf


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## Manager123 (22 March 2009)

So_Cynical said:


> Democratic Republic of Congo...that's where u lost me.
> 
> Democratic Republic of Congo - A Risk Assessment Brief 2002
> http://www.carleton.ca/cifp/app/serve.php/1091.pdf




A Risk Assessment Brief 2002, oh man? 
Time changes. We are in 2009! The question was about MGL?


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## Sean K (14 April 2009)

The takeover of DIO by AVO gives us another route in trying to assess what a small producer / developer is worth.

$49m for about 2m oz au, good grades, but scattered about.

So, it's about $25 an ounce. Hmm, that seems pretty cheap doesn't it?


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## Sean K (25 April 2009)

Another clue to the current value of an ounce of gold to a company is the sale of Martabe for $295m.

Resources for Martabe are:

48.8Mt @ 1.8 g/t Indicated and 89.5Mt @ 1.1 g/t Inferred for 5.93m oz au.

295 / 5.93 = $49.7 an ounce.

That's twice as much as what DIO has just gone for. Interesting. 

So, pick a gold stock that could be a takeover target and put a value of somewhere between $25 and $50 an ounce on it's resources for an approximate takeover market cap and share price. Pretty broad, lots of other factors, but a general indication. 

Lets use 3 simple examples of stocks I follow all in W Africa with similar grades:

AZM 750K oz au = $18.75 - $28m / shares on issue (94m) = .19 - .29c (currently .09)
GRY 800k oz au = $20 - $40m / shares on issue (115m) = .17 - .34c (currently .24)
PRU 5.7m oz au = $142 - $285m / shares on issue (206m) = .68 - 1.38 (currently .91)

Hm, makes AZM look cheap, and the other 2 mid range.

Might add this to the spreadsheet to test them all out.

Or is this a worthless exercise? 

(hold AZM and PRU)


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## So_Cynical (25 April 2009)

kennas said:


> Another clue to the current value of an ounce of gold to a company is the sale of Martabe for $295m.
> 
> Resources for Martabe are:
> 
> ...




Makes SBS worth 25+ mill at $25 an ounce...think its fair to say the Chinese payed 
way to much for Martabe...ive never looked at the deposit.


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## Sean K (26 August 2009)

Looks like SGX is going to be taken over which will give us another guage at what a company is worth for a takeover in the present climate.

Obviously not completely apples and apples with any company, especially this being in China, but a guide.

Current rsources of about 8m oz au at various grades average around 5g/t.

Current MC is about $1.75b, but there will have to be a premium of some sort. Lets just say it's at the current MC.

8m into 1.75b gives a value of over $200 an ounce. HUH? 

Must have some quality assets and upside...


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## roysolder (26 August 2009)

hi kennas-at 5.97 a share in your opinion does that make oceana gold look pretty good as rar as their earnings for the year to date?


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## Sean K (27 August 2009)

roysolder said:


> hi kennas-at 5.97 a share in your opinion does that make oceana gold look pretty good as rar as their earnings for the year to date?



I don't really know OGC that well will have a look. But comparing SGXs share price to OGCs earnings isn't how I would compare them. You need to compare both earnings to earnings, ounces, grades market caps, types of deposits, depths country risk etc etc...

SGX is being taken by Eldorado for over $2b Aus. 

8m ounces for over $2b. Why can't someone make an offer like tha for one of my gold stocks? I'll take $200 an ounce.

That looks quite a good deal for SGX to me.

LONDON (MarketWatch) -- Eldorado Gold Corp. /quotes/comstock/11t!eld (CA:ELD 11.30, -0.66, -5.52%) /quotes/comstock/14*!ego/quotes/nls/ego (EGO 10.33, -0.69, -6.26%) said Wednesday it's agreed to acquire Australia's Sino Gold Mining /quotes/comstock/22x!e:sgx (AU:SGX 5.97, +0.05, +0.84%) in an all stock deal valued at 2.2 billion Australian dollars ($1.8 billion). Sino Gold directors unanimously recommended the deal, under which investors will receive 0.55 Eldorado share for every Sino Gold share they hold. The deal represents a 21.3% premium to the closing price on Tuesday. Eldorado said the deal would created a firm with a market capitalization of roughly 6.4 billion Canadian dollars ($5.9 billion) and would be the leader among international gold producers in China. It added it will seek an Australian listing for Eldorado shares


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## Sean K (26 September 2009)

I've been updating my Gold stock comparison table and here it is.

Fewer comments than before, just sticking to the minimum.

Have added in EV to Oz Au comparison and a filter so you can sort alphabetical, by EV, resource base, or EV to Oz au, etc.

If you have more updated information on a stock then please feel free to provide. Not all information here will be correct. 

If you have a goldie you would like to include please provide as a minimum:

Code
Shares and options on issue
Debt
Cash
JORC resources

Cheers,

kennas


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## So_Cynical (26 September 2009)

Hey Kennas...ill give u some details on the goldie's i hold.


Code: *EVG*
Shares/options: 306,906,325 shares 150.000.000 options coming soon 
Grade: (Las Lagunas) Indicated JORC Gold 3.74g/t - Silver 38.62g/t 
Debt: 40 mill (US)
Cash: not much
JORC Resources: (Las Lagunas) 621,000 ounces Gold and 6,380,000 ounces of silver
In production early 2011

-----------


Code: *MDL*
Shares: 563,375,950 
Grade: 2.1g/t gold 
Debt: 0 some hedging
Cash: 9 mill
JORC Resources: 3.51 million ounces Gold
2009 (cash) cost per ounce US$420-440.


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## Sean K (27 September 2009)

So_Cynical said:


> Hey Kennas...ill give u some details on the goldie's i hold.



Thanks, added.

How is EVG going into production so soon when they don't even have 1m oz?

Is MDL producing?


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## So_Cynical (27 September 2009)

kennas said:


> Thanks, added.
> 
> How is EVG going into production so soon when they don't even have 1m oz?
> 
> Is MDL producing?




MDL have been in production for a few months now, all going according to plan and have produced over 3 tonnes so far.

http://www.mineraldeposits.com.au/user/files//Announcements/2009/090105MDL.pdf 

EVG are almost fully funded (Las Lagunas) and are at a pretty advanced stage of development, The Las Lagunas Project is a tailing's project so its a pretty simple, low cost operation, 600,000 ounces of gold and 6 mill of silver is still alot of money just sitting there at surface.

http://www.envirogold.com/pdf/Update on progress LLGTP.pdf


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## Sean K (28 September 2009)

Thanks SC,

I've updated the speadsheet with an automatic update formula attached to the share price, so if you have the add on downloaded from ninemsn your chart will update automatically, price delayed 20mins or so.

Thanks to Wrong'un in the IO comparison thread. 

Personally, I'm looking closely at anything under $30 an ounce as something 'undervalued' for a trade. Just need to drill down into them and find out why and if there's no real obvious reason ....


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## barry593 (7 November 2009)

Whats happened to the gold index XGD ??
Commsec stopped listing it 19/8/09
S&P website lists S&P/ASX All Ordinaries Gold as being ASXG
But where do we find data or a chart on it??


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## Nicks (11 November 2009)

Hey Kennas

How do we get the ninemsn add on? without it the spreadsheet errors.

=MSNStockQuote.Functions.MSNStockQuote($B16,"Last price","AU")

Also, RMS is missing from your chart. Its worthwhile including as it is producing, has some involvement in the Eastern Goldfields region, and has a big stake in DIO now alongside AVO (neither resulting in a controlling interest - this should be updated in your spreadsheet also).

I think there will be some consolidation between DIO, RMS, IGR and AVO - perhaps with the latter ultimately absorbing / taking over the other 3 resulting in a single large player in that area. Makes sense from an economies of scale perspective and to realise synergies, and I think AVO is already progressing down this strategy.

The only problem is that AVO is a bit short on cash at the moment. Probably wont matter for a scrip bid though.


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## Donga (11 November 2009)

Kennas - Provide what information I could for KGL, strong mover this year from 0.03 to .165 today regarding their tenements in Kyrgyzstan.  

Code: KGL 
Shares: 156,682,573 shares and not sure of options, looks like 147,893 
Grade: At Andash estimated JORC 540,000 oz au @ 1.1g/t & 63,000t copper
Debt: not much, few hundred $s  
Cash: Not much at 30/6, since raised $1m then another $3m inc in shares above.  

In production early 2011 at Andash re above at 60,000 oz au and 5,000t copper and supposedly from 2010 10,000 oz p.a. at Savoyardy deposit, still being measured and adjacent to Majestic Resources 1.5mill oz mine on other side of the border in China.

Comments: will cost them $US15m to purchase 80% of Andash, approval recently received from govt. Macquarie Bank to the necesary funds and they are largest s/h at 10%.

Let me know if you wish me to track down any other information you require and it is as accurate as I could manage, pls DYOR. Tomorrow will try get time to fossick data for another runner bolter EKM.


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## Sean K (18 November 2009)

OK, to add in the msn auto thingy, follow Wrong'un's comments provided in the IO comparison thread.



WRONG'UN said:


> This is a way of updating the data:
> 
> You need to close Excel, then download an Excel add-on from the Microsoft website - it uses the MSN Money website to get prices.
> http://www.microsoft.com/downloads/details...;displaylang=en
> ...



Adding RMS, but but can't find their total JORC? The DIO thing is ongoing by the look.

KGL added.

Note:

When I started putting this together lots of gold stocks were below what was considered an 'average' for junior explorers, developers and producers. For example, the average EV to oz au for a West African explorer was supposed to be about 30 bucks. At that time we had the likes of AZM, PRU, ADU, GRY all trading lower than that. AZM was at $5 an ounce at one point...However, now, they are all practically DOUBLE that! Yeah sure, POG has exploded, but what happens when the spec money comes out, USD corrects back up in the short term (probable). I think we'll see the valuation here come down quite a bit. Of course, USD could just go straight down couldn't it?


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## rbourne1 (18 November 2009)

The attached report is a recent review of the Australian Gold Industry and includes a good review on many of the gold stocks in Aus. A good combination of producers, explorers and both.


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## ricee007 (18 November 2009)

rbourne1 said:


> The attached report is a recent review of the Australian Gold Industry and includes a good review on many of the gold stocks in Aus. A good combination of producers, explorers and both.



Thanks for that:
"Lonsec’s short-term view on the gold price remains positive, although it may require an unusual event or set of circumstances for gold to break out of its recent US$880/oz to US$980/oz trading range."

It's a touch out of date, but, still provided some great reading. Learnt something from it, cheers.

PS:->Bought my first ever gold stock today, AAM. Only plan on being in for a short time; they begin mining on Monday


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## rbourne1 (19 November 2009)

you're right ricee007, it is a few months out of date and not too many people would have predicted 4-5 months ago for gold to be where it is today. Still, it gives people a selection of stocks to consider if they want exposure to the gold sector.


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## Sean K (19 November 2009)

Just read somewhere (kitco I think) that Ghana is going to double mineral royalties to 6%. If true, there's a nice way to dent the industry. I mean, if you want to increase revenue why not just add a half a percent here and then there over time instead of making news? Idiots.


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## So_Cynical (19 November 2009)

rbourne1 said:


> not too many people would have predicted 4-5 months ago for gold to be where it is today.




You're right of course...not too many people have over 45% of there portfolio in gold stocks either....but i do  because i knew this was coming.



kennas said:


> Just read somewhere (kitco I think) that Ghana is going to double mineral royalties to 6%. If true, there's a nice way to dent the industry. I mean, if you want to increase revenue why not just add a half a percent here and then there over time instead of making news? Idiots.




Lets just hope some of those extra $s filter down to services and development for the people.


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## rbourne1 (19 November 2009)

So_Cynical said:


> You're right of course...not too many people have over 45% of there portfolio in gold stocks either....but i do  because i knew this was coming.
> 
> 
> A bold move So_Cynical. The trick will be knowing when to sell!


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## prana (20 November 2009)

rbourne1 said:


> you're right ricee007, it is a few months out of date and not too many people would have predicted 4-5 months ago for gold to be where it is today.




are you serious? There are a whole bunch of ppl who bought into gold 4-5 and even a year ago (more than a few years ago even) due to this, especially when the IMF decided to offload, it's the perfect buy opportunity. I may have misunderstood the context, at which I apologise.

BTW - well done though, sounds like you'd've made a tonne  nice


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## Sean K (20 November 2009)

prana said:


> are you serious? There are a whole bunch of ppl who bought into gold 4-5 and even a year ago (more than a few years ago even) due to this, especially when the IMF decided to offload, it's the perfect buy opportunity. I may have misunderstood the context, at which I apologise.
> 
> BTW - well done though, sounds like you'd've made a tonne  nice



I think he was just saying that USD gold has performed extremely well the past few weeks. 

Some didn't expect gold to perform so strongly in the short term. Elliot Wavers were calling $600 ish just before the breakout. I guess they are turning into a good market indicator.


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## prana (20 November 2009)

ta - you guys rock - hopefully more yellow rock    Awesome hey!


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## rbourne1 (20 November 2009)

prana said:


> are you serious? There are a whole bunch of ppl who bought into gold 4-5 and even a year ago (more than a few years ago even) due to this, especially when the IMF decided to offload, it's the perfect buy opportunity. I may have misunderstood the context, at which I apologise.




Yes, I was commenting on Lonsec's opinion of the outlook for gold. They're a research house so naturally they're a tad conservative in their predictions. You are right that the market or most people are bullish on gold but if you asked them where the price will be in 4 - 5 months, I'd be surprised if more than 50% could get within $100.


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## Donga (22 November 2009)

rbourne1 said:


> Yes, I was commenting on Lonsec's opinion of the outlook for gold. They're a research house so naturally they're a tad conservative in their predictions. You are right that the market or most people are bullish on gold but if you asked them where the price will be in 4 - 5 months, I'd be surprised if more than 50% could get within $100.




Agree rbourne1 the price could be anywhere between $US1000 - 1400. In any case, what I liked was their explanation about the activity lull in the 90's and the opportunity for so many miners to shine now that Gold is looking to stay above $800 for some time. I like the ones expanding their JORC resources and/or heading into production in the near future. Expect I'll learn more about the pitfalls along the way.

Many thanks for sharing the analysis which I will refer to from time to time. I liked the potential upside of TGF from the report, and will keep a close eye on it, now trading at .105 with market cap of $28m.

Best of luck all gold diggers


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## Sean K (3 December 2009)

I am quite surprise by both ends of the scale here.

At the bottom end there are companies that seem way undervalued and at the top there are those that seem overdone.

Then in the middle, who knows....

Odd one's out imo are:

Anything under $40 an ounce is potentially undervalued.
Anything over $150 an ounce is potentially overvalued..

Drill down to make your own assessment.


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## solomon (3 December 2009)

*Re: Gold Stocks Information and Comparison - HEG*

Does anyone have the relevant info for Hill End Gold (HEG) ?


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## condog (3 December 2009)

*Re: Gold Stocks Information and Comparison - HEG*



solomon said:


> Does anyone have the relevant info for Hill End Gold (HEG) ?




Production costs at $500 oz, so good profits to be made at present

$20M odd cash for operations from cap raising (options) aiming to be producing 40-50K oz within next 9 months...

1200km² holding with 75km² confrimed strikes at producable rates...

Has good ex BHP staff....

Disc - may own from time to time


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## UMike (5 December 2009)

WOW this slump in the POG will hit the miners quite bad.

POG about $1160 as I write. A drop of about $40.


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## Sean K (5 December 2009)

Yep, should be some pain on Monday. Is it just the overdue correction, or end of the run? Longer term, if the US continues printing and borrowing, then it's just a correction. Wonder what happens if hey change policy?


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## Pivotonian (5 December 2009)

kennas said:


> Yep, should be some pain on Monday. Is it just the overdue correction, or end of the run? Longer term, if the US continues printing and borrowing, then it's just a correction. Wonder what happens if hey change policy?




I'm no economist, but I don't think there's any realistic prospect of the US reducing its borrowing in the short-medium term, which is bad news for the USD and good news for gold.  Almost certainly a correction I would think.

On another note, Kennas, have you ever looked at GDO?  I notice its not in your gold stock spreadsheet.


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## yolo2009 (15 December 2009)

I'm new to stocks and even newer to gold.  I have been watching Australian Mines Ltd (AUZ). which have traditionally been a nickle mining company but have made the commitment to Gold.  Does any one hold this stock?  Is it worth a look?  It has been bouncing along the floor now for some time( $0.001 - $0.002), is there any chance of recovery from their current SP given the information that they have shared? One comforting thing is that it can't fall very far  I would love to hear some feedback from traders that know the Aus Gold industry.


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## Joe Blow (15 December 2009)

Hi Yolo,

Your best bet would be to ask these kind of questions in the AUZ thread which you can find here: https://www.aussiestockforums.com/forums/showthread.php?t=1113


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## yolo2009 (15 December 2009)

thanks Joe Blow, but I was trying for an overall gold industry opinion due to AUZ's change of heart.  I will take your advise and also ask in the thread you have suggested.


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## Donga (17 December 2009)

kennas said:


> I am quite surprise by both ends of the scale here.
> 
> At the bottom end there are companies that seem way undervalued and at the top there are those that seem overdone. Then in the middle, who knows....
> 
> ...




Interesting Kennas once I input the current SPs. How did you come up with this list? I know you're big on PRU and AZM but what about other offshore miners like RED in Philippines and MSR in Kyrgyzstan (thanks for adding KGL earlier) and TGF in China? I've been playing with explorers with a small e (BCN, EKM, RSN and more recently RNG which commenced production this week at 40,000 oz p.a.) and wondering if I should set my sights a little higher.


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## Sean K (18 December 2009)

Donga said:


> Interesting Kennas once I input the current SPs. How did you come up with this list?



Was initially just my own gold watchlist from years of watching, and other members added some ideas. Just a work under construction really that will continue to be added to as things change. Might be relevent for some time. I've been out of the market completely for a little bit, even though I still like those relatively cheap explorers with what seems to be good upside. Waiting for the GEC to sort itself out before getting back in. Might be a 5 year holiday... lol


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## Donga (20 December 2009)

kennas said:


> Was initially just my own gold watchlist from years of watching, and other members added some ideas. Just a work under construction really that will continue to be added to as things change.




I've added data for some other miners, being RNG, RED, MSR, BCN and EKM and interesting to see the potential with those under 40 EV/oz Au, especially if they are likely to be low cost producers. Particularly fond of EKM which I picked up around the same time as PRU and KGL, and have all served me well over the past few months. Also keen on recent find MSR in Kyrgyzstan and note PRU is their major shareholder at 27.9%. 

Still comfortable with the others I've added that show higher EV/oz Au given their drilling schedules and likely upgrades shortly. AAM on your list has been capturing some interest lately and expecting news soon so will probably grab a few of those tomorrow.  

Lastly worth keeping an eye on TGF (Tianshan Goldfields) which will acquire COV in Feb with 2 TGF shares for 1 COV. TGF has sold their Chinese operations for $US28m and identified Corvette's prospects not far from Tropicana (AngloGold Ashanti Independence jv) as better value. With plenty of cash they have outlined an intensive drilling schedule for 2010 and may be in the right place at the right time.  

I'm struggling to confine my play portfolio with all the glittering gold propects and the compelling GSM as well as some current oil plays. Having fun, though probably not as much as travelling Latin America. All going well in 2010 (ASX holds up and heads towards 5500 by end year) we'll be on the road again ourselves in 2011


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## Sean K (21 December 2009)

Donga said:


> I've added data for some other miners, being RNG, RED, MSR, BCN and EKM



Nice work Donga, thanks.


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## Uncle Festivus (21 December 2009)

I think i've mentioned this before, but would anybody be interested in a more collaborative effort on this project via Google spreadsheets - of course, if Kennas is willing to share his 'baby' this way?????


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## Sean K (21 December 2009)

Uncle Festivus said:


> I think i've mentioned this before, but would anybody be interested in a more collaborative effort on this project via Google spreadsheets - of course, if Kennas is willing to share his 'baby' this way?????



UF, I tried to do this ages ago, but getting it set up was a nightmare. Well, for me it was anyway.

Very happy for you to take the data and create something more workeable.

Having said that, I would hate this data base to leave ASF...


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## Uncle Festivus (21 December 2009)

kennas said:


> UF, I tried to do this ages ago, but getting it set up was a nightmare. Well, for me it was anyway.
> 
> Very happy for you to take the data and create something more workeable.
> 
> Having said that, I would hate this data base to leave ASF...




The idea is that you could use forms for those willing to input data and also have live data which updates in near real time. 

Mmm... leave ASF....maybe have it shared only with those with registered ASF accounts...although as it is now anybody can view/use it anyway?

Main point is that some of the data in the current file is wrong, so going to Google it will always be correct?

I shall have a go at something then see if it is suitable??

Goldnerds have a subscription service for the truly dedicated....


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## Sean K (22 December 2009)

Uncle Festivus said:


> Goldnerds have a subscription service for the truly dedicated....



Yeah, would be nice to compete with them FOC.


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## Miner (23 December 2009)

Gold gurus

Did you notice the gold price slumped in India by a massive amount.  How that matters ? India and China are two major consumers of gold oranments and jewellery. This is the month when Indian marriages are held pushing the gold price to great high. If at the peak season, gold price has dropped down massively then in lean season gold will be very bearish. 

http://www.kitco.com/charts/popup/au24hr3day.html

Hope by the morning when I get up every thing will be sweet .


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## cooper1308 (9 January 2010)

Miner said:


> Gold gurus
> 
> Did you notice the gold price slumped in India by a massive amount.  How that matters ? India and China are two major consumers of gold oranments and jewellery. This is the month when Indian marriages are held pushing the gold price to great high. If at the peak season, gold price has dropped down massively then in lean season gold will be very bearish.
> 
> ...




Gold is different in that speculators will give it a variety of reasons to buy/sell other than fundamental consumption.... Think "reserve currency" or "inflation hedge" rah rah rah.....About 40% of global production is consumed by Indian/Chinese jewelery production & this is down 30% from this time last year, so the dynamics are changing. A one night dip in Indian trade is almost irrelevant... Keep an eye on long term trends in the US dollar for a better idea of where we are headed imo.

Sugar/Wheat/Fertilizer etc etc hold true to consumption supply/demand more so than gold..

On the stock side, my pick: SAR....Been riding this baby for a little while now...First pour in March.. Huge tenements with a bunch of drilling yet to be done in world class gold belt... State of the art infrastructure including almost new mill...Cashed up....No debt... etc etc


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## Sean K (19 January 2010)

cooper1308 said:


> On the stock side, my pick: SAR....Been riding this baby for a little while now...First pour in March.. Huge tenements with a bunch of drilling yet to be done in world class gold belt... State of the art infrastructure including almost new mill...Cashed up....No debt... etc etc



SAR does look a little cheap for a developer on the updated table here.

How the heck AND is commanding such a valuation at the moment is a bit bamboozling. Almost $500 an ounce while significant producers are averaging around the $130 an ounce mark. 

Any other stocks to add to the list, or incorrect info here?


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## Sean K (22 January 2010)

*Opinions Divided on Australian Gold Stocks*
BY ANDREW NELSON - 19/01/2010
Share Cafe

There's little arguing that gold prices have started off the year on a fairly positive note, with prices pushing to one-month highs at US$1160/oz, which is less than US$70 shy of the all-time high reached in early December. Yet while prices were supported last year by a surge in investor appetite and the swing in official sector flows and closures of hedged gold sales, the question remains: can the physical market continue to rise in 2010?

Where gold goes, so do gold miners. For analysts at Deutsche Bank, gold remains a preferred sector and commodity and while the metal is trading in line with the broker's 2010 forecast of US$1,150/oz, a 2011 forecast for US$1,250/oz certainly leaves room for upside. Yet while the broker sees continued support coming from central bank diversification of reserves and investment holdings, it believes the US dollar could become increasingly less helpful in the year ahead.

(continued....)


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## Wysiwyg (28 January 2010)

Wondering what happens to gold stocks when the glow is off the metal? Do they go into an eternal downtrend (like 27 years)  until gold price recovers. Like a kid walking the streets, head down with hands in pockets kicking stones in a nonplussed way.

I'm sussing a fledgling, hedged goldy with plenty of upside in gold production and another mineral venture but hey, I don't want a long term hold if their expansion is snuffed by a POG out of fashion.


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## Donga (28 January 2010)

Wysiwyg said:


> Wondering what happens to gold stocks when the glow is off the metal? Do they go into an eternal downtrend (like 27 years)  until gold price recovers. Like a kid walking the streets, head down with hands in pockets kicking stones in a nonplussed way.
> 
> I'm sussing a fledgling, hedged goldy with plenty of upside in gold production and another mineral venture but hey, I don't want a long term hold if their expansion is snuffed by a POG out of fashion.




If/when POG retreats your junior will be like that kid shuffling down the street from my recollection  

Got somewhat excited about MSR, developing a large resource that may attract a bigger player in Kyrgyzstan but quit them after concerns on their time frames. DMG is in the box seat in China with 2.7M oz and could start production fairly soon pending gov't approvals. Haven't added these to Kennas list yet but will get around to it.  

Started thinking about re-rating that usually happens as a junior gets into production (also reduces nagging POG concern to some degree) and put together this list which may trigger comments and research. Be interested in adding others and I hold five of them.    

FML: MC$194m 1.9Moz resource last 6 months 0.025-0.077 now 7c
SAR: MC$183m 3.0Moz last 6 months 0.18 - 0.48  now 44c
NAV: MC$57m  1.3Moz last 6 months 0.14 - 0.23  now 14c
AAM: MC$62m  1.7Moz last 6 months 0.13 - 0.42  now 36c 
RNG: MC$68m  0.6Moz last 6 months 0.02 - 0.05  now 4c
MCO: MC$45m  0.9Moz last 6 months 0.15 - 0.48  now 40c
GOA: MC$28m   N/A   last 6 months  0.013-0.058  now 3.5c 
NME: MC$20m  0.4Moz last 6 months 0.16 - 0.30  now 24c

Just added GOA to my holdings - from recent merger of Gold Aura with Gold Anomaly and start producing 20k oz p.a. Brazil in March to fund exploration and developments at their larger PNG tenements, one ex BHP before they withdrew. This recent ann summarises them well enough 
http://imagesignal.comsec.com.au/asxdata/20091217/pdf/01023535.pdf 

Be interested in any comments or information on other juniors going into production shortly.


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## MrJones (28 January 2010)

good info on this thread, thanks


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## So_Cynical (1 February 2010)

kennas said:


> Any other stocks to add to the list, or incorrect info here?




Ill give you an update on my holdings...TRY has done a capital raising, so shares on issue are now 87,455,889 - there last quarterly had them treating ore grading 4.22g/t gold at there Brazilian mine - Andorinhas.

The new Casposo mine is on target for production in September quarter 2010, just 12 months after project construction commenced and 18 months after project acquisition,  Troy have had some drilling/sampling sucess there and an update to the Casposo Mining Reserve is now expected in April 2010...current Indicated grades for Casposo  are 7.9 Gold g/t Au_eq 

http://www.try.com.au/default.aspx?ContentID=70
http://www.try.com.au/default.aspx?MenuID=25

EVG issued a ****e load of 15 cent oppies (231,453,160) expiring 31 Dec 2011....and they still have a crap web site.

MDL have announced plans to double the capacity of the Sabodala gold plant to approximately 4.0 Mtpa....gold production tipped to be around 200000 ounces annually...they have also started exploring again around Sabodala.

http://www.mineraldeposits.com.au/user/files//Announcements/2010/100004MDL.pdf


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## Sean K (22 February 2010)

A few of us have been saying this or a while now, but very little has actually happened.

We'll be right eventually. Of course.

*Barrick brings WA Africa-focused gold companies into play*
KATE EMERY, The West Australian February 22, 2010, 

WA's African gold players are tipped to face fresh corporate interest in the wake of Barrick Gold's $US3.7 billion ($4.2 billion) plan to spin off its African assets.

Barrick's $80 million bid for Perth junior Tusker Gold earlier this month had already sparked speculation the big miners were on the acquisition trail. Its latest move has analysts suggesting consolidation among Africa's gold players is all but inevitable.


http://au.news.yahoo.com/thewest/bu...s-wa-africa-focused-gold-companies-into-play/

Stocks mentioned : PRU, ADU, CDT, AZM, RSG ...


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## Jack.c (23 February 2010)

Anyone have a view on LGL? it has recently moved down a fair ways, but this might be done and may start the return back up.

Any view welcome.


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## Joe Blow (23 February 2010)

Jack.c said:


> Anyone have a view on LGL? it has recently moved down a fair ways, but this might be done and may start the return back up.
> 
> Any view welcome.




Hi Jack,

You will probably get more of a response if you ask this question in the LGL thread: https://www.aussiestockforums.com/forums/showthread.php?t=599


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## Ghetto23 (3 March 2010)

Kennas, a question about your spreadsheet if I may.

In the EV column you have teh formula as EV = MC - Cash

Shouldn't this be: EV = MC + Debt - Cash

In saying that it's a really useful tool - thanks for giving it to us!


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## Sean K (4 March 2010)

Ghetto23 said:


> Kennas, a question about your spreadsheet if I may.
> 
> In the EV column you have teh formula as EV = MC - Cash
> 
> ...



Yes, you are correct I think, to be corrected.


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## Sean K (11 March 2010)

Have updated the chart with some of the data provided, thanks, and some of my own updates. Probably haven't captured all the changes though so any extras please feel free to announce.

Just for some perspective on the West African explorers/developers, who are probably under the radar for some consolidation, here is an EV to oz au graph and grades indicated from a GRY slide recently. Just for perspective.


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## Aston (13 May 2010)

Hi,

New to this thread and just want to add a company to the list of comparisons but not sure how to update spreadsheet. Recently picked up some shares, so disclosing my interest.  Information extracted from latest investor presentation and quarterly report, so data is accurate to the best of my knowledge.  Feel free to correct/add any details on review of company reports.

Many Thanks

Company: NQM
Shares: 200 Million
Options: 750,000
SP: 0.235 (13 May 2010)
Mkt Cap: 47 Million
Grade AU: 2.8 
Resource: 505Koz (NQM Share)
Cash:$17.7 Million

Summary Points:
Cash Flow positive
Debt Free
Paying Dividend
Unhedged


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## Sean K (27 June 2010)

BGF update on West African goldies which provides some pretty good information, but a litte dated. I agree with their summary of the companies analysed. Bench marking them on PRU and ADU is probably conservative, imo, at around $100 oz going into production is less than many others. Maybe that's the West Africa benchmark? Seems unreasonable that an AND is trading at $400 an ounce, or maybe more, and remember LGL bought EQI at about $500 an ounce. But, they are idiots.


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## Slipperz (27 June 2010)

All my weekend research leads me to the conclusion the outlook for equities in the next 6 - 12 months is tenuous at best.

I feel a lot more comfortable looking at the price of gold graphs which are far more bullish.

I will still be looking for buying ops on certain picks but atm I'm cashed out of the market with the exception of PRU.

Plenty more upside here as they move into production with the POG rising. 

Their drilling program out there in elephant country is paying dividends as well. They seem to be looking  in the right part of the world for gold. 

And sadly but practically it is better to be invested in an offshore miner so as to circumvent Mr Swan's tax grab.


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## Sean K (11 December 2021)

I'm digging back through my old threads of interest and found this gold stock comparison one. I'm also trying to dig up the old hard drive that might have held the spreadsheet that I had been attaching to this, but I think I might have left it in the sand box a few years ago. 

I think it's time to resurrect it, even from scratch. 

Stay tuned.


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## divs4ever (11 December 2021)

well if there are several currency collapses ( and that is possible )  that might be very timely  and educational 

 also  i have been unsuccessful finding an attractive silver producer  , did ASF ever have a thread on that  ( similar to this gold thread )

 cheers


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## Sean K (11 December 2021)

divs4ever said:


> well if there are several currency collapses ( and that is possible )  that might be very timely  and educational
> 
> also  i have been unsuccessful finding an attractive silver producer  , did ASF ever have a thread on that  ( similar to this gold thread )
> 
> cheers



Not that I can recall. Probably because there’s so few silver majors in Australia. Like, none.


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## noirua (12 December 2021)

Sean K said:


> I'm digging back through my old threads of interest and found this gold stock comparison one. I'm also trying to dig up the old hard drive that might have held the spreadsheet that I had been attaching to this, but I think I might have left it in the sand box a few years ago.
> 
> I think it's time to resurrect it, even from scratch.
> 
> Stay tuned.



We are at an interesting time especially for those interested in gold shares but not holding any at present.  Aussie gold shares are doing better than US gold shares, in AUD terms, due to the widening of currencies at USD1 equals 1.42 AUDs. Many forget Canadian shares as USD1 equals 1.24 CADs.
Some gold shares are paying high dividends as their share price is crushed despite the gold price standing at USD1,780 approx.
Newmont with a market cap of USD45 billion at a share price of USD56 pays 3.92%. DRD Gold a market cap of USD738 million at USD8.58 pays 5.9%.








						Newmont (NYSE:NEM) - Share price, News & Analysis  - Simply Wall St
					

Should you invest in Newmont (NYSE:NEM)? Excellent balance sheet and slightly overvalued. Last updated 2022/03/15 22:33




					simplywall.st
				











						DRDGOLD (NYSE:DRD) - Share price, News & Analysis  - Simply Wall St
					

Should you invest in DRDGOLD (NYSE:DRD)? Flawless balance sheet average dividend payer. Last updated 2022/03/15 22:35




					simplywall.st


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## divs4ever (12 December 2021)

well i don't mind a GOOD illiquid stock , but  didn't assume because i was unsuccessful , that they don't exist 

 my major silver exposure  currently  is S32  (a multi-commodity company)  and SDI ( a dental technology company selling silver fillings among other stuff )

 SVL is still a work in progress ( i don't hold ) and several gold producers have a silver by-product 

 but  i think the gold  stock comparison will be more popular in the short term ( at ASF )

 cheers


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## divs4ever (12 December 2021)

noirua said:


> We are at an interesting time especially for those interested in gold shares but not holding any at present.  Aussie gold shares are doing better than US gold shares, in AUD terms, due to the widening of currencies at USD1 equals 1.42 AUDs. Many forget Canadian shares as USD1 equals 1.24 CADs.
> Some gold shares are paying high dividends as their share price is crushed despite the gold price standing at USD1,780 approx.
> Newmont with a market cap of USD45 billion at a share price of USD56 pays 3.92%. DRD Gold a market cap of USD738 million at USD8.58 pays 5.9%.
> 
> ...



 i am holding several gold producers  , but am willing to cherry-pick and nibble more  ( NOT back up the truck , though )

 IF there is a major meltdown (  some of the 'everything bubble ' pops ) i am thinking the GFC reaction is like possible ( all assets run to cash  , primarily to ease debt obligations )   so for those  already low-debt and have cash reserves  some opportunities will arrive  

 so  i hope there will be a small window to add some good gold stocks cheaper , and if i miss that window start looking at discounted quality companies ( both stocks and debt instruments )  and LICs  ( because REITs should be chaos and take longer to clarify their situation )

 but heck i am just GUESSING ,  maybe your plan is better ( especially for your situation )

 BTW don't forget geopolitical risk  , some governments aren't as stable as they were in the past ( that could be a NASTY issue )


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## noirua (12 December 2021)

divs4ever said:


> i am holding several gold producers  , but am willing to cherry-pick and nibble more  ( NOT back up the truck , though )
> 
> IF there is a major meltdown (  some of the 'everything bubble ' pops ) i am thinking the GFC reaction is like possible ( all assets run to cash  , primarily to ease debt obligations )   so for those  already low-debt and have cash reserves  some opportunities will arrive
> 
> ...


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## Miner (12 December 2021)

Slipperz said:


> All my weekend research leads me to the conclusion the outlook for equities in the next 6 - 12 months is tenuous at best.
> 
> I feel a lot more comfortable looking at the price of gold graphs which are far more bullish.
> 
> ...



Just an observation of this thread.
After June 2010 the next post was  end of 2021.
11 years gap. Long and deep slumber for gold- price and Forex rate then and now. I recall in  2010 when I became first time expat $1 AUD was about $1.05 USD and now  😀😃🙂


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