# Chartists - your opinions please



## Joe Blow (5 August 2004)

I'd be interested in hearing the opinions of chartists on this Dow Jones 12 month chart.


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## wayneL (5 August 2004)

Hi Joe,

It looks like crap. I've barely traded a long in weeks. Thank the Lord its so easy to short stocks in the US.

Futures are down atm and it will certainly open down this evening.

Longer term, I think the bear is stalking the market, more pain ahead for the bulls.


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## wayneL (11 August 2004)

Time for a bounce?

A breach of the lower channel line will scare the crap out of bulls and may cause account 990N (AKA the PPT) to go on a spending spree.

Watch this space


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## stefan (11 August 2004)

Wayne,

Very interesting chart there. Looks like we are in for some more interesting days. Let's see what other figures they will release. I have a feeling they will all be disappointing. Maybe uncle sam will surprise us all for a change?  

Happy trading

Stefan


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## wayneL (11 August 2004)

Yup,

Bounce happenning! Fed raises .25% and the market rises...

Go figure! :

But..."One swallow does not a summer make"


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## stefan (12 August 2004)

> Fed raises .25% and the market rises...




Wayne,
Well, I'd say everbody is just keen to hear that the economy is strong. Which it is when interests go up. So this time the market took it as a good sign, meaning that the current pull back is only temporary. 

Happy trading


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## Joe Blow (17 August 2004)

> I'd be interested in hearing the opinions of chartists on this Dow Jones 12 month chart.




Dow looking even sicker than it was when I made my first post in this thread.

Any comments?


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## stefan (17 August 2004)

My only coment would be:
As long as oil stays high, the DOW will trade backwards because of the slow down in economy due to high oil prices. EVERYTHING in the US is about economy and growth. The last figures were crap. Job creation was so disappointing it may already have decided the election.

I for one don't see the DOW going up until something good comes out to motiviate the market. And to be honest, I can't see what that could be right now.

Happy trading

Stefan


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## wayneL (22 September 2004)

We at another critical technical point in the US market.

"They" have been reluctant to push past the upper channel line over the last few days and will be interesting (especially as I am ckokkers full of longs) where we go next.

The feeling I get from other traders is pretty bullish, but the contrarians, as always, view excessive busllishness as a bearish sign.

Next question: what will be the implications for the Aussie market? The US and OZ markets have have less correlation than I have seen since I've been trading.

As always, we live in interesting times.


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## Joe Blow (24 September 2004)

The U.S. market down about 2% over the last two trading sessions.

Interesting chart Wayne!


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## wayneL (24 September 2004)

Joe,

Yes the channel is still intact and one could make a case for the market to make a move to the bottom of the channel at circa 1055 then bounce etc etc.

The only thing I don't like about that is that it is TOOOOO predictable.

Channels don't last forever and the've gotta push it out one way or the other.


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## wayneL (30 September 2004)

Hi

The s&p looks to be bouncing off the 38% at this stage.(the nasdaq is giving a stronger bounce off of the same level)

I still think "they" want to push it northwards. A lot of the stocks I trade look pretty bullish. Surprising really as a lot of the #'s coming out are underwhelming to say the least.

Cheers


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## wayneL (2 October 2004)

Well the bullishness I detected from US traders looks to be serious. More mediocre #'s released today and the market makes a serious assault on that upper channel boundary...go figure!

I've scarcely been able to find a short setup for a few weeks so I am happy that the boys have decided to push this to the upside...kaching!


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## stockGURU (10 October 2004)

Hi Wayne... I've been waiting anxiously for your next chart in this series.


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## RichKid (10 October 2004)

stockGURU said:
			
		

> Hi Wayne... I've been waiting anxiously for your next chart in this series.




Yes, me too. 

Also, Did I mention that your charts always look good Wayne? You're quite the artist...makes charting a visual pleasure! Knowing what the art world is like I wonder if people sell framed pictures of colourful chart patterns....might make more money out of the pictures than the stock ...you could start a gallery and charge nerdy chartists for entry....he he he

It's the weekend, I can't be bothered being serious.


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## wayneL (11 October 2004)

Guys,

Will update tonight...maybe even with some extra colours and squiggly lines, for artistic merit. Haha


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## wayneL (15 October 2004)

Well as we can see the S&P had broken out of the channel...briefly...only to be lassoed in by oil prices. Bullish sentiment seems to also be drying up.

I've included some momentum paint bars in the chart plus a modified MACD. They don't mean much but they sure are pretty Hahaha


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## RichKid (15 October 2004)

Hi Wayne,
Interesting that you mention that 38 level. I just use simple Edwards and McGee type TA and I come up with support at about the same level as you. BUt it may just be a coincidence. Interesting difference is that I can only do that after atleast two of the internal cycles in the channel are completed (as shown on you chart- I just draw a temporary horizontal support line at about the price level you mark in red, about mid channel). 

BUT the main difference appears to be that your system would have predicted that level ahead of my simple (retrospective) method since I had to wait for at least two (or three) internal channel patterns to draw a line. Hope this makes sense, I'll see if I can find free dow charts with line tools to post up. Candles are also good as I can see the falls to the support, an OHLC bar chart wouldn't have been as clear although I usually prefer those.

Keep up the art work, maybe Joe will start a new comp for prettiest price chart!


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## wayneL (28 October 2004)

Forgetting the Dow which is still firmly stuck inside the downward channel its been in since the beginning of the year (but strongly bouncing off of the yearly lows of the other day);

The S&P 500 is once again testing the upper resistance of the channel boundary as drawn in posts above.

The NASDAQ is doing likewise... or has actually broken out of the channel, depending on where you draw the resistance line.

The price action suggests that these indexes will break strongly to the upside over the next couple of days.

Call me cynical, but in combination with a $3 selloff of oil just in time for the election, looks a tad contrived to me.

Interesting also for those interested in interest ....bonds down a full point also!

But discounting the possibility of outright manipulation, this market looks like it wants boomage IMO!

Stay tuned!

Cheers


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