# 2011 General ASX Market Discussion



## Joe Blow (11 October 2011)

I never imagined that the "Official 'ASX is Tanking!' panic thread" would have seen so many posts in just a couple of months, so I have decided to start the first monthly general market discussion thread as there is clearly a demand for this type of general market chat.

I will see how this thread goes during October and if it's popular I will start a new thread each month.

So please, chat away everyone!


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## VSntchr (11 October 2011)

*Re: October 2011 General ASX Market Discussion*

Yet another up day on the cards today. A big move from the recent low on, so far, only a few words out of Europe...
Will be interesting to see where we end the week...


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## notting (11 October 2011)

*Re: October 2011 General ASX Market Discussion*

Many short term technical buy triggers will go off today. As they would have in global markets last night.
It's back dropped by the cyclical Christmas rally which is rocketing this current move. 
We also have the Elliot wave C shaping 'up.'
The US is not going into recession this week as it was last week! and Euroland members are starting to sound coherant with a plan that will manage the banking system if Greece defaults in a month.
Italy had kick but growth last month and China's inflation is under control. 
Could the end of the world look any better?


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## Gundini (11 October 2011)

*Re: October 2011 General ASX Market Discussion*

Yes, I must admit it is pretty frustrating waiting for a base bottom to start forming in Gold and the Dow. No sign of any punters jumping out of the windows just yet. Happy sitting on the sidelines and test my patience, especially during October.


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## skyQuake (11 October 2011)

*Re: October 2011 General ASX Market Discussion*



notting said:


> Many short term technical buy triggers will go off today.




That means time to fade!


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## notting (11 October 2011)

*Re: October 2011 General ASX Market Discussion*

Didn't look very faint at the close on the dow with a spike on high volume in a market already well up!


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## pixel (11 October 2011)

*Re: October 2011 General ASX Market Discussion*

I'm not sure how long the current exuberance will last.
Sure, a lot of buy signals went off; a lot of shorts have been squeezed since the gloomy-looking charts triggered stop-losses everywhere. The question remains "How much has changed?" Can anyone see a reason why there should be such a strong V-shaped recovery?

When I look at this month's Index Option distribution, I'm getting the feeling that today may be "as good as it gets." Unless there are massive changes in the area between 4050 and 4200, the ASX200 could easily drop back below 4100 come the 20th.


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## Sdajii (11 October 2011)

*Re: October 2011 General ASX Market Discussion*

There was what looked to me to be too much hype, and I sold a lot of my holdings yesterday morning. Turned out to be a bad move as I missed quite a rally (ouch!), but I still think I probably did the right thing (so to speak). This rally seems pretty silly, and the game we've seen over the last few weeks is crazy. We spend a few days, maybe a week or so with everything being roses and optimism and rainbows, then a few days, maybe a week or so, with doom, gloom, we're all about to die, might as well slit your wrist now and get it over with, then start again with the rainbows and sunshine, repeat, repeat...

Nothing is really changing, and on the big picture it looks to me like things are going to get worse before they get better, it's going to hit the fan in the not too distant future, and these strange rallies and spurts of optimism are bizarre. I don't know how much longer people will keep screaming up and down based on the spin, but in the mean time, a few people a making a crazy stack of money, a lot of people are making a lot of money, a heap of people are losing a lot of money, and a fair few (perhaps they're the sane ones and I should join them?) are sitting around watching, scratching their heads.

But don't worry, I'm probably wrong, we've been told they have a plan to make it all okay, they'll be releasing their plan by the end of the month. *phew*


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## cutz (11 October 2011)

*Re: October 2011 General ASX Market Discussion*



pixel said:


> Unless there are massive changes in the area between 4050 and 4200, the ASX200 could easily drop back below 4100 come the 20th.




Nice info Pixel, I guess the liquidation of the excess ITM calls by non market makers will put pressure on the XJO, is that the way you see it ?

BTW is the chart freely available ?


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## LostMyShirt (11 October 2011)

*Re: October 2011 General ASX Market Discussion*

At the very least we have pulled out of the funk, and the charts indicate to me a run to 4400 or at least near resistence before some sort of consolidation of profit taking. Imo the down-trend is nullified for now.


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## Chasero (11 October 2011)

*Re: October 2011 General ASX Market Discussion*

Anyone else expecting a pull back either tomorrow or the day after?

4-5 day rallies with no pull back seem a bit strange? Need to review some more charts..


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## Tysonboss1 (11 October 2011)

*Re: October 2011 General ASX Market Discussion*



Chasero said:


> Anyone else expecting a pull back either tomorrow or the day after?
> 
> 4-5 day rallies with no pull back seem a bit strange? Need to review some more charts..




I am expecting that it will be entirely unknowable as every other day is. and that any guess people do make will have a 50% chance of being correct.


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## pixel (11 October 2011)

*Re: October 2011 General ASX Market Discussion*



cutz said:


> Nice info Pixel, I guess the liquidation of the excess ITM calls by non market makers will put pressure on the XJO, is that the way you see it ?



Hi cutz,
it's more likely the threat that those ITM calls can be exercised, costing the writers - usually large Institutions - big $$'s. What I therefore find in most months is a late "adjustment" where 
either those excess Calls are being bought back, neutralised by Puts, or rolled forward
or the underlying stock - or index in this case - is pushed back down towards the level of equilibrium.

As an example:
The moneypoo-lation was strikingly obvious in last month's TLS trade, where I discovered some 140 Million Calls at $3.10. Of course, the sp closed at $3.09 on the day, meaning the Calls couldn't be exercised, the writers kept stock *and premiums*, and it was only the next day that TLS rose above $3.10.


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## young-gun (11 October 2011)

*Re: October 2011 General ASX Market Discussion*



Chasero said:


> Anyone else expecting a pull back either tomorrow or the day after?
> 
> 4-5 day rallies with no pull back seem a bit strange? Need to review some more charts..




just wait for the next slightly negative headline out of europe and you will see this rally at least halved in two or three days I have little to no doubt that the big wigs over there have any idea on what to do. Most likely sitting there discussing "so how can we let Europe collapse gently."

Of course they wont. Instead the end result will be "lets print more money". Or Germany will help out and in turn get sucked into the abyss.


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## pixel (11 October 2011)

*Re: October 2011 General ASX Market Discussion*

Something is likely to happen that can well stretch out into mid-November.

The current equilibrium on Index Options of the November series (exp.17/11) is at 4050.


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## Wysiwyg (11 October 2011)

*Re: October 2011 General ASX Market Discussion*

According to this chart at the Eureka Report's website, which is scaled in 6 year periods, shows the company earnings to index divergence. One would believe will eventually come back to mean.


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## joea (11 October 2011)

*Re: October 2011 General ASX Market Discussion*

Hi.
Better still, will the passing of the "carbon tax" tomorrow morning initiate the first step in a final leg down to take out the low of 9/08/2011?
joe


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## nomore4s (11 October 2011)

*Re: October 2011 General ASX Market Discussion*



joea said:


> Hi.
> Better still, will the passing of the "carbon tax" tomorrow morning initiate the first step in a final leg down to take out the low of 9/08/2011?
> joe




We won't take out that low without the help of overseas markets imo. My analysis of that low holding till next year is still valid. We've seen everything I wanted to see, a slowing of the decent and a strong rally off support.

I think we will end up back around 4400-4500 maybe even a touch higher in the next few months followed by some sideways action and then a drop, small rally and then possibly a steady decline towards the 3500-3700 area or maybe even 3000-3200 depending on how bad things turn out for the world economy. This is a long range forecast though and it is always hard to be accurate over longer time frames in todays markets.

One thing I'm pretty sure of though is we will see some sort of bear market over the next few years unless the governments manage to actually pull out some real fix to all the problems .


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## skc (11 October 2011)

*Re: October 2011 General ASX Market Discussion*



nomore4s said:


> We won't take out that low without the help of overseas markets imo. My analysis of that low holding till next year is still valid. We've seen everything I wanted to see, a slowing of the decent and a strong rally off support.
> 
> I think we will end up back around 4400-4500 maybe even a touch higher in the next few months followed by some sideways action and then a drop, small rally and then possibly a steady decline towards the 3500-3700 area or maybe even 3000-3200 depending on how bad things turn out for the world economy. This is a long range forecast though and it is always hard to be accurate over longer time frames in todays markets.
> 
> One thing I'm pretty sure of though is we will see some sort of bear market over the next few years unless the governments manage to actually pull out some real fix to all the problems .




Looking across global markets, the fall pretty much started at late July at around these levels.

XJO ~4400
SPX ~1250
DAX ~7000
HSI ~21,500

I can see XJO and SPX going to retest those levels without too much problem... they are only 4-5% away anyway.

But I can't for the life of me see DAX and HSI going back towards those levels without some sort of minor miracle. 

For DAX there's a resistance zone at ~6000, and for HSI it's ~18,500. These are ~3-4% away and align better with the XJO and SPX. 

At current pace we should get there by the end of the week. Interesting times then.


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## Nonchalant (11 October 2011)

*Re: October 2011 General ASX Market Discussion*



Tysonboss1 said:


> I am expecting that it will be entirely unknowable as every other day is. and that any guess people do make will have a 50% chance of being correct.




Hehe

The most accurate and insightful response in this thread thus far. Well done Tyson!

There really is no rhyme or reason. The market will do what it wants to do.


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## joea (11 October 2011)

*Re: October 2011 General ASX Market Discussion*



Nonchalant said:


> Hehe
> 
> The most accurate and insightful response in this thread thus far. Well done Tyson!
> 
> There really is no rhyme or reason. The market will do what it wants to do.




Hi.
Well I think Trader Girl is going to make a killing trading the SPI short.
joea


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## Julia (11 October 2011)

*Re: October 2011 General ASX Market Discussion*



Nonchalant said:


> There really is no rhyme or reason. The market will do what it wants to do.



You really don't think there's any basis for the current volatility?


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## Nonchalant (12 October 2011)

*Re: October 2011 General ASX Market Discussion*



Julia said:


> You really don't think there's any basis for the current volatility?




Hi Julia

You have completely and utterly misconstrued what I've stated and the context in which it was stated. I don't mean to antagonise, but a quick glance at the thread title would allude to the fact that the discussion is based purely on movement in the market within the month of Oct. Therefore, my comments reflect the high degree of difficulty in any short term ( we're talking a day/days here) forecasting.  

Oh, and yes, I'm well aware of exactly what's causing the current unpredictability in the market. The root cause of the turmoil is mired in political affiliations and persuasions. Greek debt, banks and other countries being exposed to said debt and mitigating said debt from contagion, are merely symptoms of a much larger and all encompassing problem. But I digress. 

As to your question, I trust this explains whether I think there's any basis to current 
market volatility.


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## FreshTrader (12 October 2011)

*Re: October 2011 General ASX Market Discussion*



joea said:


> Hi.
> Better still, will the passing of the "carbon tax" tomorrow morning initiate the first step in a final leg down to take out the low of 9/08/2011?
> joe




Do you really think the passing of the CT will have much of an impact on the market tomorrow?  You don't think it's ALREADY been factored into prices?  

Just asking.


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## FreshTrader (12 October 2011)

*Re: October 2011 General ASX Market Discussion*

SPI 200 currently up 25.00 points.


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## young-gun (13 October 2011)

*Re: October 2011 General ASX Market Discussion*



FreshTrader said:


> SPI 200 currently up 25.00 points.




i give up. what has caused this 6-7 day rally nothing has really changed?!

i see economists getting up on business programs talking about "technical indicators and turning points". i was a technical trader, previously reliable indicators surely cannot be applied to current markets.


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## FreshTrader (13 October 2011)

*Re: October 2011 General ASX Market Discussion*



young-gun said:


> i give up. what has caused this 6-7 day rally nothing has really changed?!
> 
> i see economists getting up on business programs talking about "technical indicators and turning points". i was a technical trader, previously reliable indicators surely cannot be applied to current markets.




What I find funny is that this whole rally was STARTED by a few words out of some guy's mouth.  Mr Bernake owes himself credit for the initiation of this seemingly massive rally.  IMO he started it, but the reason why we continue to rise strongly is unknown to me...


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## Struzball (13 October 2011)

*Re: October 2011 General ASX Market Discussion*



young-gun said:


> i give up. what has caused this 6-7 day rally




Panic buying.

There has been massive resistance at 4300-4400 followed by significant falls since early August.  What's changed? Nothing. There will most likely be a significant fall again as soon as those testing the resistance find it.  

If that doesn't play out, well I guess we truly are in new territory and I'll welcome back the bull. 

However fundamentally nothing big has _actually_ collapsed yet, and current conditions will not favour those who were just scraping by prior to now.  So either everybody will get very lucky, or they'll be burned like never before.


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## LostMyShirt (14 October 2011)

*Re: October 2011 General ASX Market Discussion*

Looks to me like we have created a resistance level for ourselves here.

The indicators on the XAO don't look too bad - almost verging onto bullsish in my opinion.

It looks like a typical Friday to me though - void of volume; however selling pressure isn't as strong as I had expected it to be last night.


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## willstor (17 October 2011)

*Re: October 2011 General ASX Market Discussion*

So what's the view on today's ASX?

I'm bullish today (17.10.11) I have to say...not to say long term fundamentals are there, but for today I can only see things going in one direction.


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## prawn_86 (17 October 2011)

*Re: October 2011 General ASX Market Discussion*



willstor said:


> So what's the view on today's ASX?
> 
> I'm bullish today (17.10.11) I have to say...not to say long term fundamentals are there, but for today I can only see things going in one direction.




Hi Willstor,

Welcome to ASF 

Please note that we are a very informative and analytical community, so the more analysis you provide the better. Simply saying you are bullish is notl ikely to get much response, but if you give reasons as to why, others will probably offer their own opinions.

Thanks


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## Chasero (17 October 2011)

*Re: October 2011 General ASX Market Discussion*

Sold a tonne of shares today into strength. I am bearish this week.

Huge rally and only caught around 3 days of it. (sold half last week) That's good enough for me as I've reached my stop losses.


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## sammy84 (17 October 2011)

*Re: October 2011 General ASX Market Discussion*



Chasero said:


> That's good enough for me as I've reached my stop losses.




Do you mean profit limit order?


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## tech/a (17 October 2011)

*Re: October 2011 General ASX Market Discussion*



sammy84 said:


> Do you mean profit limit order?




Could be that they flew through his initial stops.
Didn't want to take the loss.
These rises gave him a get out of jail
 Free Card---so he's taken it!

Now whether thats a smart move or not??


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## pixel (17 October 2011)

*Re: October 2011 General ASX Market Discussion*

Judging by the way that Index Options are distributed across the spectrum of strikes, I guess our XJO (ASX S&P Top 200) is at resistance and will pull back below 4250 by Thursday, October 20th.
Looking out into the next two months, the November target would be close to 4100, and only then do I expect the Christmas Rally to run back up into yhe low 4300's.


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## sammy84 (17 October 2011)

*Re: October 2011 General ASX Market Discussion*



tech/a said:


> Could be that they flew through his initial stops.
> Didn't want to take the loss.
> These rises gave him a get out of jail
> Free Card---so he's taken it!
> ...




Haha. Thanks for the explanation. Wouldn't really call them stop losses then.


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## willstor (17 October 2011)

*Re: October 2011 General ASX Market Discussion*

Finished up for today. I trade CFD's as a hobby mainly focusing on the ASX 200 index.
Made a couple of hundred dollars profit the last two days mainly by buying the dips.

It's all about Europe atm and whilst ANZ are probably correct that the chances of them finding a long term workable solution aren't huge, the bulls will have the advantage until the next stutter in the bail out process.

AUD Reserve Bank's Board October Minutes tomorrow are going to be very interesting - that could signal the end of the bull run.


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## Chasero (18 October 2011)

*Re: October 2011 General ASX Market Discussion*



sammy84 said:


> Do you mean profit limit order?




Yes that is what I mean't. I reached my profits so I have taken them  (Plus too many resistance levels and tops forming on charts so too risky to hold bullish this week)


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## Logique (18 October 2011)

*Re: October 2011 General ASX Market Discussion*

Another day, and... same old same old. Euro fears, Dow down, USD index up, gold down. Market index range upper level not breached, consequent bearish sentiment. 

See link under, let's hope that explosive move is in the desired direction.
http://bigpondnews.com/articles/Finance/2011/10/18/Gold_prices_fall_674736.html
Gold prices fall

"..'With renewed concerns that Europe will not have any progress any time soon, you are seeing investors take profits on the stock markets and that spills over to the metal markets,' said Phillip Streible, a senior strategist with MF Global.

'The market has been eerily quiet for quite a long time and it's due for an explosive move.'.."

"..Adam Sarhan, chief executive of Sarhan Capital, said there was a [gold] bearish double-top based on the two recent highs formed in late August and early September.."


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## Joe Blow (26 October 2011)

Joe Blow said:


> I will see how this thread goes during October and if it's popular I will start a new thread each month.




I have moved away from the idea that ASF should have a monthly general market discussion thread and have decided to see how we go making it an annual event. 

I think a monthly thread would make the discussion a little more disjointed as new threads would have to have to be started each month, and it would also make it more difficult to refer back to previous discussion as quoting posts from previous months would not be quite so simple a task.

Please feel free to use this thread for all general ASX market discussion.


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## Gringotts Bank (26 October 2011)

I feel like there's a lot of overlap between this and XAO banter and XAO TA threads.


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## Joe Blow (26 October 2011)

Gringotts Bank said:


> I feel like there's a lot of overlap between this and XAO banter and XAO TA threads.




I want people to feel like nothing is really off limits in this thread, while the XAO threads should be confined to XAO banter or XAO technical analysis. 

Interest rates, inflation, company reporting, the local economy, the global economy, government economic policy, this thread is for discussing anything that even vaguely impacts on the ASX.


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## Wysiwyg (27 October 2011)

Anyone know why the stock exchange hasn't opened on time?


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## McLovin (27 October 2011)

Wysiwyg said:


> Anyone know why the stock exchange hasn't opened on time?




Computer problem, all trades for this morning are under review.


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## Gringotts Bank (27 October 2011)

I've been looking back through old records and this is the best morning session I've had in ages.  Haven't lost a cent yet.


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## Wysiwyg (27 October 2011)

McLovin said:


> Computer problem, all trades for this morning are under review.



 Thank you.


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## The Falcon (27 October 2011)

Gringotts Bank said:


> I've been looking back through old records and this is the best morning session I've had in ages.  Haven't lost a cent yet.




LOL :

Likewise!


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## marioland (27 October 2011)

How long does it usually take to come back up?


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