# Charting the Crash



## wayneL (28 February 2007)

Shades of Chicken Little perhaps, but if this is the start of something big, let's chart it.  

Half an hour *before* the open Dow futures are down 121 points.

Below is the Nasdaq 24 hour chart. Note that the last bar is price action before the open.


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## Freeballinginawetsuit (28 February 2007)

Gee what a sadist, would you like me to provide a whip and leathers for you as well!?


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## Lucky (28 February 2007)

Would this happen to do with China tanking last night???

http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601087&sid=aDTbCpU1gZdQ&refer=home

Down 9%


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## wayneL (28 February 2007)

Freeballinginawetsuit said:
			
		

> Gee what a sadist, would you like me to provide a whip and leathers for you as well!?




No! This could be the most valuable lesson any of you ever learn... particularly shoeshine boys.  

That said, this may not be the start of a crash at all. But it is an interesting day for any market participant.

Watch and learn.


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## ducati916 (28 February 2007)

There is one muppet who is NAKED short puts on the FTSE about 30 contracts......don't know what the FTSE is doing, but, I bet IV has ticked up a touch.

jog on
d998


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## Freeballinginawetsuit (28 February 2007)

Happy to watch and learn Wayne  , no need for the jibs though....I wont go their


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## Magdoran (28 February 2007)

wayneL said:
			
		

> Shades of Chicken Little perhaps, but if this is the start of something big, let's chart it.
> 
> Half an hour *before* the open Dow futures are down 121 points.
> 
> Below is the Nasdaq 24 hour chart. Note that the last bar is price action before the open.



Good move Wayne.

Well, I did call Feb 24 as a possible top weeks back for the XAO, and called the index level at 6025 a week out on this site... so it doesn't surprise me.  All the markets are looking toppy.

However, it could just be an 18 day pull back (or less), and then retest the high (if a marginal eventuates then my XAO target date is 01 April).  But this could be a big move...  We’ll know more as it pans out...


Mag


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## Magdoran (28 February 2007)

ducati916 said:
			
		

> There is one muppet who is NAKED short puts on the FTSE about 30 contracts......don't know what the FTSE is doing, but, I bet IV has ticked up a touch.
> 
> jog on
> d998



Yup, IV should fly up... may have to buy puts on the counter trend if you want in...


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## ducati916 (28 February 2007)

NASDAQ hit the worst at the moment


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## wayneL (28 February 2007)

Freeballinginawetsuit said:
			
		

> Happy to watch and learn Wayne  , *no need for the jibs though....I wont go their *





			
				Freeballinginawetsuit said:
			
		

> Gee what a sadist, would you like me to provide a whip and leathers for you as well!?



I'm so glad.


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## ducati916 (28 February 2007)

Mag's

I've been ready for a while.

d998


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## ducati916 (28 February 2007)

I've got an arb on the bid/ask the prices are ****ed up already


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## Magdoran (28 February 2007)

ducati916 said:
			
		

> NASDAQ hit the worst at the moment



how about the European markets too...


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## Magdoran (28 February 2007)

ducati916 said:
			
		

> Mag's
> 
> I've been ready for a while.
> 
> d998



Yup, me too.  It's PAYDAY!


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## ducati916 (28 February 2007)

My FTSE guy will **** and then die........his margin will go through the ****in roof

d998


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## ducati916 (28 February 2007)

second bid/ask arb


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## wayneL (28 February 2007)

Magdoran said:
			
		

> Yup, me too.  It's PAYDAY!



MERCENARIES you are!


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## Magdoran (28 February 2007)

ducati916 said:
			
		

> My FTSE guy will **** and then die........his margin will go through the ****in roof
> 
> d998



Not sure what your plan is arbing it.  Straight puts here, couldn’t get set in a spread… hence partial exit target is a must in case this is just a counter trend and not the big one…

Possible pull back then continuation is possible, but I prefer the correction model currently…


Mag


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## markrmau (28 February 2007)

I reckon the S&P will bounce back to end only .3-.5% down. We shall see.


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## Magdoran (28 February 2007)

wayneL said:
			
		

> MERCENARIES you are!



What Wayne,


You the great bear, aren’t you short too???


Mag


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## ducati916 (28 February 2007)

The bid/ask arb is still there on GG but liquidity is drying up


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## Magdoran (28 February 2007)

ducati916 said:
			
		

> The bid/ask arb is still there on GG but liquidity is drying up



What’s your timeframe – are you day trading these???


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## ducati916 (28 February 2007)

Yup..........
I do a bit of everything


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## wayneL (28 February 2007)

Magdoran said:
			
		

> What Wayne,
> 
> 
> You the great bear, aren’t you short too???
> ...



Not as short as I'd like to be. Suspect the cavalry may show up. But short enough to matter


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## Magdoran (28 February 2007)

ducati916 said:
			
		

> Yup..........
> I do a bit of everything



Best of luck then, I'll leave you to it so you can focus on the trade!


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## ducati916 (28 February 2007)

the arb is gone now


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## Magdoran (28 February 2007)

wayneL said:
			
		

> Not as short as I'd like to be. Suspect the cavalry may show up. But short enough to matter



Indeed Wayne,


Trying to top pick is a dangerous business… hence shorting on the lower high may offer a better probability, and that cavalry is always annoying if you're short...  

However if this is an “ABC” style of correction, I’d take profits a bit before the obvious support (say half) then hopefully let the winner run if it’s impulsive…  That’s the plan, anyway.

Mag


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## Dr Doom (28 February 2007)

Is it open ended Duc or can you see a bounce happening?.


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## ducati916 (28 February 2007)

DD

Not sure I understand your question, but there will be a bounce in my opinion as the bears have been burned for quite some time, and they'll take profits quite quickly...thus the bounce on covering

But, it may frighten the bulls into getting out while the goings good, so I think we'll see another May style sell off

jog on
d998


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## Dr Doom (28 February 2007)

Ducati, open ended as in is this the start of a major correction or just a relief pullback. So you think it could go further?. I'm thinking that for it to be of crash proportions there must be a point where derivitives covering turns into a domino effect, but not sure when that point will be, or what the pain threshold is for those exposed. I expect to hear more Red Kite type stories emerge after these sorts of routes. Excess liquidity mixed with derivitives makes for an explosive mixture.


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## ducati916 (28 February 2007)

DD

I'd say this will be a correction along the May type last year.
If the correction places enough pressure on counter-parties we may see something serious.

However, if it is the start of something big, you won't see it in the stockmarket first...............it'll be in the Bond market.

The sub-prime sector in the US is a massive problem.
Not just the rubbish lenders...but the big boys as well.
JPM has huge exposure as does a few others....they were reaching for yield

If the Bond market goes, the financial sector won't be far behind, and then the stockmarket may well follow.

jog on
d998


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## ducati916 (28 February 2007)

DD

The Yield curve has been signalling a recession.
Look's like it's on it's way.

jog on
d998


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## Dr Doom (28 February 2007)

The conventional thinking is that it (a recession) is usually 3 or 4 qtrs after the inversion, but that may be sooner due to the 'velocity' of electronic money these days, the cronic problems in the US eg housing crash, sub-prime depression etc etc. 

As discussed earlier on the commodities thread I think, China is increasingly looking like a house of cards too. 

I think a correction of May proportions is hoping for the best case outcome?.

I think things happen a lot faster than they used too due to the ease of electronic money shuffling these days. Everybody gets on the train at various stops on the journey, but everyone wants to get off at the same time I think.


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## ducati916 (28 February 2007)

DD

The Yield curve has already been inverted, or very close too it for at least that long. The key, is if it has been maintained.........and it has.

This destroys the banking business model.
When the credit cycle turns, which it is, then watch out.

The question is, will the FED lower the discount rate to stave off the recession?

Who knows, but the Politicians hate unemployment etc.
The pressure will therefore be on an *easing* policy.

If the FED eases, the Bond market will turn bullish in a hurry.
As will the stockmarket in all likelihood

jog on
d998


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## wayneL (28 February 2007)

ducati916 said:
			
		

> DD
> 
> The Yield curve has already been inverted, or very close too it for at least that long. The key, is if it has been maintained.........and it has.
> 
> ...




That could take the chains off the inflation monster, in which case they will have to raise again. I reckon we'll see some funny moves to stave off recession, but can't see the ultimate result being any different, only worse.


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## Dr Doom (28 February 2007)

ducati916 said:
			
		

> DD
> 
> The question is, will the FED lower the discount rate to stave off the recession?




If there was a case study on what was going to happen we could have a look at Japan. Isn't this the classic stagflation scenario wherby no amount of lowering interest rates provided enough stimulis to the economy, to the point of zero interest. Japan is the end game poster boy for this current economic cycle with the US facing the same problem eg raise rates to combat (real)   inflation while watching the real estate market (and consequently the general economy) get trashed. Or, lower rates but not have any stimulatory effect because the damage has been done?.


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## ducati916 (28 February 2007)

Agreed,

They need a recession to work off all the excesses that have built into the system.

The Japanese example is slightly different in that the Japanese never went to a forced debt liquidation.

The US is much better in that way, if you need to go bankrupt [in most cases] you do.

The Japanese due to their cultural differences kept a lot of zombie corporations [even to this day]

jog on
d998


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## wavepicker (28 February 2007)

Magdoran said:
			
		

> What Wayne,
> 
> 
> You the great bear, aren’t you short too???
> ...




Great stuff Mag, you are the only guy on this forum who called a potential price and time high. 

Starting to feel good about getting set up in a short position yesterday.
Too early to tell yet, but ot could be that the bears have come out of hibernation and those bulls might get their horns chopped!!


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## Dr Doom (28 February 2007)

wavepicker said:
			
		

> Great stuff Mag, you are the only guy on this forum who called a potential price and time high.
> QUOTE]
> 
> Close?
> https://www.aussiestockforums.com/forums/showpost.php?p=127153&postcount=142


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## wayneL (28 February 2007)

I'm seeing a few posts around the traps like this one on an English forum:



> What the hell's going on - just had a tearful relative on the phone who has just lost loads on mining shares. Mind you, they're a risky option at the best of times. What kicked all this off? Been tracking this all day through the newswires. Starting to really concern me. Glad I've sold most of my shares, etc.




SPI is down 3% on SYCOM


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## wayneL (28 February 2007)

Some are suggesting that this could be partly due to yen carry unwinding.

Could be apocryphal, but there you go.

PS Yen futures up strongly


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## ducati916 (28 February 2007)

Well even if it wasn't [unwinding Yen carry trade] if the Yen currency starts to rise, then that in of itself will force the carry trade to unwind.........

If the Yen carry trade does unwind, that will cause uproar, this has been in place for a long time, there will be a lot of money moving in the opposite direction

jog on
d998


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## wavepicker (28 February 2007)

wayneL said:
			
		

> I'm seeing a few posts around the traps like this one on an English forum:
> 
> 
> 
> SPI is down 3% on SYCOM




and this one of another US financial site:-

Alert: Today, Tuesday, February 27th, 2007, China's stock market plunged 8.8 percent, the largest one-day drop in a decade. This comes on the heels of Greenspan's recent comments that a recession is possible later in 2007. It also comes as the technical set-up for world and U.S. stock markets warns of a coming significant decline


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## Porper (28 February 2007)

wavepicker said:
			
		

> and this one of another US financial site:-
> 
> Alert: Today, Tuesday, February 27th, 2007, China's stock market plunged 8.8 percent, the largest one-day drop in a decade. This comes on the heels of Greenspan's recent comments that a recession is possible later in 2007. It also comes as the technical set-up for world and U.S. stock markets warns of a coming significant decline




Don't you all think you are getting carried away.

The US is down 1.5% not 15%.All we can do is sit back and see what pans out, maybe a larger correction is due, but don't forget we had this type of thing happening in May last year and look where the index is now.

As for China, yes it lost 8.8%, but what did it make in 2006 ?  Well it made 130% !!

The important thing is to not jump in either way, see what the trend is after a few days, then trade in that direction, if that means going short, great, money to be made.


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## wayneL (28 February 2007)

Porper said:
			
		

> Don't you all think you are getting carried away.



Probably! LOL

But for me, a few planets are lining up the right way. If Venus and Pluto would just pull into alignment, it's all over.


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## wavepicker (28 February 2007)

Porper said:
			
		

> All we can do is sit back and see what pans out, maybe a larger correction is due, but don't forget we had this type of thing happening in May last year and look where the index is now.




And that May move was quite a significant tradeable correction in itself.

Just because market rebounded so strongly after the May correction does not mean it will do so in a similar manner again.

"What seems logical in the market is usually what does not happen"

Cheers


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## noirua (28 February 2007)

Markets appear to have been hit by a triple whammy. Announcements in China to curb the booming economy; intention of the South African Government to increase taxes on mining companies; and forecasts of a US recession later in the year.


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## wayneL (28 February 2007)

ducati916 said:
			
		

> Well even if it wasn't [unwinding Yen carry trade] if the Yen currency starts to rise, then that in of itself will force the carry trade to unwind.........
> 
> If the Yen carry trade does unwind, that will cause uproar, this has been in place for a long time, there will be a lot of money moving in the opposite direction
> 
> ...



More on this topic:

http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601101&sid=a3VGXNcEOVl8&refer=japan



> Yen Gains Most in More Than 14 Months as Traders Unwind Bets
> 
> By Min Zeng
> 
> ...


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## wayneL (28 February 2007)

Reuters take on YCT

http://www.reuters.com/article/reut...?src=022707_1311_INVESTING_comment_n_analysis



> Is the party over for the yen carry trade ?
> Tue Feb 27, 2007 1:09PM EST
> 
> By Gertrude Chavez-Dreyfuss
> ...


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## ducati916 (28 February 2007)

The massive short's on volatility are about to be handed their lunch if what is being proposed by the articles comes to pass.

Whereas, if you're long volatility, you're going to be scooping it up with a bulldozer.

Market liquidity will evaporate.

jog on
d998


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## Atomic5 (28 February 2007)

I just think Greenspans mouth wants the "Weapon of Mass Destruction Award" for 2007 YTD. 

He's anticipating Bernanke's mouth repeat expected shot for the title (2 years running) on Wednesday.


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## wayneL (28 February 2007)

ducati916 said:
			
		

> The massive short's on volatility are about to be handed their lunch if what is being proposed by the articles comes to pass.
> 
> Whereas, *if you're long volatility,* you're going to be scooping it up with a bulldozer.
> 
> ...




VIX up 43% to circa 16%

A stunning one day rise from historic lows


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## Realist (28 February 2007)

noirua said:
			
		

> intention of the South African Government to increase taxes on mining companies.




Isn't that good news for Australian mining companies in Australia?


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## noirua (28 February 2007)

Realist said:
			
		

> Isn't that good news for Australian mining companies in Australia?




Hi, As long as they have no interests in South Africa. All the major mining stocks fell from 3% to 8% in London. Dow is down 225.8 and the FTSE closed down 2.31%. Nothing but a sea of red.


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## wayneL (28 February 2007)

noirua said:
			
		

> Hi, As long as they have no interests in South Africa. All the major mining stocks fell from 3% to 8% in London. Dow is down 225.8 and the FTSE closed down 2.31%.



noirua,

Dow is down ~360


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## wayneL (28 February 2007)

Holy Crap

-425

<edit> just printed a low -486


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## ducati916 (28 February 2007)

noirua said:
			
		

> Hi, As long as they have no interests in South Africa. All the major mining stocks fell from 3% to 8% in London. Dow is down 225.8 and the FTSE closed down 2.31%. Nothing but a sea of red.





I recommend the backstroke, conserve that energy.
S&P500 -48.64

jog on
d998


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## wayneL (28 February 2007)

Just tick -500

-533

lol I cant keep up


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## BSD (28 February 2007)

Woah - the DOW just GAPPED 180 points 

Those program traders are a real good risk managment tool aren't they!


Down 530 now


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## ducati916 (28 February 2007)

I think it has actually entered the *panic* stage now.
Wild ride.
Always wanted to trade an historic day.

jog on
d998

1 hour to go


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## bvbfan (28 February 2007)

Carnage


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## wayneL (28 February 2007)

BTW

The Yen is flying.

The carry trade [unwinding] must be contributing a lot to this.


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## ducati916 (28 February 2007)

If that is the case, this will develop into far more than a one day event or May correction. This could trigger a bear market and recession.

jog on
d998


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## bean (28 February 2007)

One day wonder similar fall in middle 1998?   Some technical damage done.  Next few days to tell the tale.  Gold will be making a low very soon any day now, Gold indicies xau and hui down 7%


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## ducati916 (28 February 2007)

bean said:
			
		

> One day wonder similar fall in middle 1998?   Some technical damage done.  Next few days to tell the tale.  Gold will be making a low very soon any day now, Gold indicies xau and hui down 7%




If you're talking about the Asian crisis, Russian default, or LTCM, this is potentially far more serious.

The amount of money runs into many Trillions of dollars based on counterparty trades on CDO's

If this blows up, you have a recession at best.

jog on
d998


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## tech/a (28 February 2007)

Well while there will be blood in the streets this will be a chance for some great buy opportunities.Big falls always bounce.

*This will be different??*


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## bvbfan (28 February 2007)

Contrarian wise too many think this is just an abberation which tends to make me believe a deeper correction could be happening.

Funny trading in gold tonight, dropped rallied then sold off after normal trading ceased. 
Makes me suspicious.


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## ducati916 (28 February 2007)

bvbfan said:
			
		

> Contrarian wise too many think this is just an abberation which tends to make me believe a deeper correction could be happening.
> 
> Funny trading in gold tonight, dropped rallied then sold off after normal trading ceased.
> Makes me suspicious.




Gold @ $650+ is purely speculative pricing.
Speculators will stab you in the back and go short as soon as look long.
If the money is running, Gold will fall prey same as any speccy.

Inflationary pricing for Gold + global risk = $300 to $350

jog on
d998


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## wayneL (28 February 2007)

bvbfan said:
			
		

> Contrarian wise too many think this is just an abberation which tends to make me believe a deeper correction could be happening.
> 
> Funny trading in gold tonight, dropped rallied then sold off after normal trading ceased.
> Makes me suspicious.



Agree,

The interplay between equities, gold, yen and bonds looks serious.

Bonds have had a bolter of a day too... flight to safety.

I wouldn't be surprised if the cavalry does some tinkering over the next few days, but the big money is shifting.

!!!!!!!!!!!!!


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## money tree (28 February 2007)

careful wayne, you might be diagnosed with broken clock syndrome.

wasnt Dow @ 10600 and XJO @ 4800 when you started saying "the sky is falling!" ?

some perspective please.......


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## wayneL (28 February 2007)

money tree said:
			
		

> careful wayne, you might be diagnosed with broken clock syndrome.
> 
> wasnt Dow @ 10600 and XJO @ 4800 when you started saying "the sky is falling!" ?
> 
> some perspective please.......



Crashy,

Don't be so pious. I will draw your to the first post in this thread so you can see where you can stick your perspective.


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## Realist (28 February 2007)

Despite all the hype China makes up 9/10th of F all of the world's economy.

If China vanished overnight we'd lose a few export dollars from resources, but in the scheme of the Global economy the state of California is currently more important than China.


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## Sean K (28 February 2007)

Realist said:
			
		

> Depsite all the hype China makes up 9/10th of F all of the world's economy.
> 
> If China vanished overnight we'd lose a few export dollars from resources, but in the scheme of the Global economy the state of California is currently more important than China.



 Really??   Well, we've nothing to worry about. Cheers.


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## BSD (28 February 2007)

Ahh, they are the world's biggest importer of copper and second biggest in oil

Their stock market is a nothing - but their demand is our future.


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## KIWIKARLOS (28 February 2007)

Perhapes we are will see huge drops in all these speculative companies than are hugely overpriced simply because they have some good dirt with a couple holes drilled.

What is everyones opinion on the sell off that will take place today, Will you sell most of your holdings or just the speccies. Do you think we will see back to back drops on the markets for consecutive days


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## money tree (28 February 2007)

I think XJO will remain under 6000 for 

THE NEXT 5 YEARS


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## bean (28 February 2007)

I will drop 10% but will do selling of non gold in a few days and buying more gold stocks in a few days.


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## Realist (28 February 2007)

kennas said:
			
		

> Really??   Well, we've nothing to worry about. Cheers.





Well I am not worrying. :


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## Sean K (28 February 2007)

wavepicker said:
			
		

> Great stuff Mag, you are the only guy on this forum who called a potential price and time high.
> 
> Starting to feel good about getting set up in a short position yesterday.
> Too early to tell yet, but ot could be that the bears have come out of hibernation and those bulls might get their horns chopped!!



 

20 Feb:



			
				kennas said:
			
		

> Is this looking toppy and ready for a bit of a breather?
> 
> Top of a wave 5 perhaps?
> 
> ...


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## money tree (28 February 2007)

well done to those who called the short ONCE and RECENTLY


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## KIWIKARLOS (28 February 2007)

The question is will it bounce back in days/weeks or is this the start of something big?


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## money tree (28 February 2007)

this is only the beginning

it wont be 1987, but it wont be pretty


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## tech/a (28 February 2007)

Here is some good technical stuff.
Seems Frank D and Radge are on the same "Wave" length.

http://lightning.he.net/cgi-bin/suid/~reefcap/ultimatebb.cgi?ubb=get_topic;f=1;t=001592

Radge was all over it on 23/2 Behind the Wall of Knowledge.


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## noirua (28 February 2007)

The US Dow Jones closed down 416.00 at 12,216.24.  This followed a speech by "Greenspan".

My portfolio is about 75% in cash. Unusually, I'm a bit worried even so, as a fall of 3.3% in the Dow Industrial will see most stocks on the ASX fall into the red. Some miners may see 10+% falls.


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## wayneL (28 February 2007)

money tree said:
			
		

> this is only the beginning
> 
> it wont be 1987, but it wont be pretty



So hang on Crashy. You make an unprovoked _ad hominem_ comment about me being bearish, and you're calling a bear market?

You wait till AFTER the biggest sp shock in six years when it is so bleedin' obvious that the whole market is in a dithering panic? 

There is a monumental hypocrisy here.


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## Magdoran (28 February 2007)

tech/a said:
			
		

> Here is some good technical stuff.
> Seems Frank D and Radge are on the same "Wave" length.
> 
> http://lightning.he.net/cgi-bin/suid/~reefcap/ultimatebb.cgi?ubb=get_topic;f=1;t=001592
> ...



Geez Daffy,



Hey, I called a top for XAO with Feb 24 as the key date on 22 January 2007! Frank was hardly precise.  He didn’t give a date or an index level.  What did Nick do?

What about my calls:  22 January 2007 see post 645 in “Zinc the metal for 2006", then on 01/02/07 post 4 in “Trading The SPI - Gann Techniques”,  and my clear comments on 23 and 26 Feb on “Can we quit job and invest in stocks full time?” post 99, 106, and 112, and I gave the actual high target as my first choice in "ZFX – Zinifex" post 1408 on 17 Feb.

Just look at the posts…


Mag


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## spitrader1 (28 February 2007)

wayneL said:
			
		

> So hang on Crashy. You make an unprovoked _ad hominem_ comment about me being bearish, and you're calling a bear market?
> 
> You wait till AFTER the biggest sp shock in six years when it is so bleedin' obvious that the whole market is in a dithering panic?
> 
> There is a monumental hypocrisy here.



professor and i have been talking about this for some time. we have not called it correctly, we put to large a time frame on it. We had 6mnths to 2 years, so we can hardly say it we picked it.

But what we do agree on is that this is were the real money will be made. The number of people that have made money out of this bull market that dont know how to trade a bear market will come out today. The membership numbers of ASF will fall. Nobody wants to know about the market when its falling. So come on all you bull market traders, with ure uranium stocks that have air abnormalities that i could find if i walked down pitt street mall. Shhhh....whats that noise in the background, choking?? Spluttering?? Strap in, and get set-lets see how you go when ure balls are sweating!! For what its worth, -143 pnts, and a good day to buy qaulity assetts. Comments Professor?


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## professor_frink (28 February 2007)

spitrader1 said:
			
		

> professor and i have been talking about this for some time. we have not called it correctly, we put to large a time frame on it. We had 6mnths to 2 years, so we can hardly say it we picked it.
> 
> But what we do agree on is that this is were the real money will be made. The number of people that have made money out of this bull market that dont know how to trade a bear market will come out today. The membership numbers of ASF will fall. Nobody wants to know about the market when its falling. So come on all you bull market traders, with ure uranium stocks that have air abnormalities that i could find if i walked down pitt street mall. Shhhh....whats that noise in the background, choking?? Spluttering?? Strap in, and get set-lets see how you go when ure balls are sweating!! For what its worth, -143 pnts, and a good day to buy qaulity assetts. Comments Professor?



It shall be a good shake out me thinks  
SPI futs off 170-not much in the way off support in sight.
How many weeks did the DOW go without a 2% one day fall?
Spi, I don't think the bulls will be too fearful just yet. A week of this and they might be


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## wavepicker (28 February 2007)

Magdoran said:
			
		

> Geez Daffy,
> 
> 
> 
> ...




No disrespect to Frank or Nick because they too have made some fine calls in the past, but this is exceptional work by Magdoaran IMO. He mentioned both price level AND date as early as 2 months ago.

Excelllent work Mag, I think you will be teaching Mclaren a thing or two if you keep this up, not the other way around

Cheers


----------



## money tree (28 February 2007)

wayneL said:
			
		

> So hang on Crashy. You make an unprovoked _ad hominem_ comment about me being bearish, and you're calling a bear market?
> 
> You wait till AFTER the biggest sp shock in six years when it is so bleedin' obvious that the whole market is in a dithering panic?
> 
> There is a monumental hypocrisy here.




lol.

since the Dow was 10600 (and probly earlier) you have been telling us all the sky is falling. The market has done nothing but run since then, and anyone who listened to you has lost a bundle. yet here you are now, crowing about how right you were........yeah.....theres hypocracy all right. of course if you kept making the same call you would be right one day. what credit I will give you however, is that you called a fall during the day which eventuated. But winning one battle doesnt win the war.

and if I want to change tack to bear suit now, thats my right. I called the market up back then, remember? 

"I suppose when the dow is 20,000 and XJO is 6000 that will still be the case?"


----------



## tech/a (28 February 2007)

Moggi.

Sorry I havent read every post.

Good on you then.
Guru status should be yours!


----------



## Kimosabi (28 February 2007)

Atomic5 said:
			
		

> I just think Greenspans mouth wants the "Weapon of Mass Destruction Award" for 2007 YTD.
> 
> He's anticipating Bernanke's mouth repeat expected shot for the title (2 years running) on Wednesday.




Interestingly, Greenspan is being blamed for the problems in the US Subprime Lending Market for Lowering Interest Rates too Low and for too Long, and for reducing lending standards at the same time.


----------



## Smurf1976 (28 February 2007)

When central banks undertake a rate raising cycle, the usual end result is that _something_ breaks with the questions being _what_ and _when_.

It would seem we have our answers. First the US housing market started to fall, then the US sub-prime lenders started going bust at the rate of one every few days. And now we have a fall in the major stock indices.

Looks like the what and when has been partially answered. Only trouble is, losing a few % doesn't count as the major incident that would be expected so I'm expecting either more losses or that something else big happens before we get another round of more inflation (the central banks' answer to everything).

That a loss of less than 20% is considered a serious fall highlights the situation we're in today. We've seen incredibly low volatility in recent times which is unlikely to last forever. The market is overdue for some nice big ups and downs judging by history.


----------



## Kimosabi (28 February 2007)

All I'm seeing today is Red...


----------



## Freeballinginawetsuit (28 February 2007)

Plenty of posts on this one in one short day, a lot of frustration seems to have been held in and vented out in such a short time .

A bit of perspective......considering 06 & 07........10 percent down at open today on most.


----------



## emily (28 February 2007)

So much fustration around, I cant even open commsec. I think the server is busy like hell....


----------



## Magdoran (28 February 2007)

wavepicker said:
			
		

> No disrespect to Frank or Nick because they too have made some fine calls in the past, but this is exceptional work by Magdoaran IMO. He mentioned both price level AND date as early as 2 months ago.
> 
> Excelllent work Mag, I think you will be teaching Mclaren a thing or two if you keep this up, not the other way around
> 
> Cheers





			
				tech/a said:
			
		

> Moggi.
> 
> Sorry I havent read every post.
> 
> ...




Thanks Guys,

But one good call does not a guru make.

And my next call could be complete garbage – the market is a capricious beast.  It’s just that this time I could see the cycles clearly, and the probabilities were high… but I can only do this in specific conditions.

All techniques have their day in the sun, but to think this kind of thing can be repeated 100% of the time is just not realistic.

To even think of being half as good as Bill McLaren would be an honour, but I’m certain I’m not even close to that.  Bill has been in the market longer than many on the ASF have been alive.  I have a long way to go to earn my stripes, and my work is still embryonic at best.  Also, if I had never studied his materials, I would never have been able to see this…

I still consider myself at the intermediate level, and will be for at least another 5 years in my view.  You need over a decade of consistent performance to rate in my view…

Also, beware this move, I suspect this is more like the 1994 high than a 1987 crash scenario.  The fundamentals may hold the flow, unless the Yen carry trade blows a hole in the indexes…  If short, take profits in an orderly fashion because this market can spike back quickly!


Regards


Magdoran


----------



## pacer (28 February 2007)

etrade is down too....glad I sold a heap of NCM yesterday, but those ZFX shares are still siting there and I want out...phones all locked up too!

What good is having computerised buying and selling if I can't access the damn thing!
*NOT HAPPY!..................*


----------



## Nick Radge (28 February 2007)

Certainly a good call Mag. One thing I don't posess is a handle on time analysis. 

Pacer,
That is a concern. Phew. I remember 1987 when people turned up at the door step...yikes!


----------



## Kimosabi (28 February 2007)

GOLD got hammered pretty bad, but seems to on the way back up


----------



## Magdoran (28 February 2007)

Nick Radge said:
			
		

> Certainly a good call Mag. One thing I don't posess is a handle on time analysis.
> 
> Pacer,
> That is a concern. Phew. I remember 1987 when people turned up at the door step...yikes!



Thanks Nick,

I remember the excellent call you made last time around with the price level for 10th May 2006… that was a great call too.

It’s nice when you can see the market clearly isn’t it?  And we both know what a difficult thing it is to forecast consistently.

The problem now is, where to from here?

I have a hunch this is an 18 calendar day move, and there should be a retest of the high.  Do we get a marginal high from here, or a lower high?  

I just can’t see this being like the ’87 crash (unless the Yen carry trade really takes a toll – and that may take some time to become evident who gets hit and how hard, and organisations will try to bury this in paperwork for as long as they can before the reckoning, so we could see a prolonged campaign over time as revelations come in – but I’m speculating here.  I really can’t measure this at all).   It looks more like the ’94 scenario… we’ll have to watch this…


Regards


Magdoran


----------



## Sean K (28 February 2007)

Kimosabi said:
			
		

> GOLD got hammered pretty bad, but seems to on the way back up



Responding to 660 support. It's all too early to call IMO. The noise!!!


----------



## TjamesX (28 February 2007)

Looks like all eyes will be on China's open in about an hour


----------



## 2020hindsight (28 February 2007)

I thought this was the year of the golden pig 
only gold plated maybe?

(PS reluctant "well done" to all the bears who called this one - trouble is    - it's like the boy who cried "bear" - after a while you become immune to the warnings   )


----------



## dubiousinfo (28 February 2007)

Nikkei opened down 200 and moved further to be down 652 now.


----------



## CanOz (28 February 2007)

Shanghai up 60 pts.


----------



## CanOz (28 February 2007)

Heres a basic chart.


----------



## KIWIKARLOS (28 February 2007)

What is XJO and what is the shanghie index code?


----------



## CanOz (28 February 2007)

Dropped back a bit and bounced.


----------



## CanOz (28 February 2007)

Resilent bunch, i'll give them that much!


----------



## wayneL (28 February 2007)

Magdoran said:
			
		

> Thanks Guys,
> 
> But one good call does not a guru make.
> 
> ...



Nice balance there Mag.  

As we know concentrating on who called what, where isn't where the profit is made. It is trading what actually happens. I say that not for your benefit, because I know you know that, but for the benefit of people like Crashy, who believes the call is all important.


----------



## wayneL (28 February 2007)

money tree said:
			
		

> lol.
> 
> since the Dow was 10600 (and probly earlier) you have been telling us all the sky is falling. The market has done nothing but run since then, and anyone who listened to you has lost a bundle. yet here you are now, crowing about how right you were........yeah.....theres hypocracy all right. of course if you kept making the same call you would be right one day. what credit I will give you however, is that you called a fall during the day which eventuated. But winning one battle doesnt win the war.
> 
> ...



Crashy, my treacherous friend. You forget who your friends are.

As stated above, it's not the call, it's how you trade what's in front of you. I don't mind trading against my own sentiment, as detailed throughout this forum.

Calling this fall? Bah! it was bleedin' obvious.


----------



## BSD (28 February 2007)

I request this thread be renamed -

 'Charting a Blip '

 ' Losing Four Weeks of Froth'

 ' Getting Wood over a Pullback'

 ' Noise Noise Noise"

 'Much Ado About Nothing ' 

 ' Finally some Vol '

We can change it back we we have dropped the 1500-2500 points required for a CRASH

500 takes us back to Xmas.


----------



## Kimosabi (28 February 2007)

Well everything in Europe seems to be down 1% - 2% tonight so far, interesting to see what Wall Street does when they come on-line.

Just about the only market showing green is China, everyone else is Red

http://www.bloomberg.com/markets/stocks/wei.html


----------



## theasxgorilla (28 February 2007)

Magdoran said:
			
		

> Also, beware this move, I suspect this is more like the 1994 high than a 1987 crash scenario.  The fundamentals may hold the flow, unless the Yen carry trade blows a hole in the indexes…  If short, take profits in an orderly fashion because this market can spike back quickly!




With the avg P/E for the XAO at just over 17, it's difficult to see the "fundamentalists" letting things get too out of hand.


----------



## nizar (1 March 2007)

Magdoran said:
			
		

> Also, beware this move, I suspect this is more like the 1994 high than a 1987 crash scenario.  The fundamentals may hold the flow, unless the Yen carry trade blows a hole in the indexes…  If short, take profits in an orderly fashion because this market can spike back quickly!




JUst a note to keep in mind the Index has gained about 20% in the past 12 months. In the 12 months prior to the 1987 crash the Index had gained 88%.
BIG DIFFERENCE, i dunno why all the comparison??


----------



## wayneL (1 March 2007)

BSD said:
			
		

> I request this thread be renamed -
> 
> 'Charting a Blip '
> 
> ...



We only on day 2 and it is no fun calling a crash after the fact. This could take a year or more to play out, if indeed this is it.



> ' Finally some Vol '



Yes agree... at last.


----------



## wayneL (1 March 2007)

BSD said:
			
		

> Woah - t*he DOW just GAPPED 180 points*
> 
> Those program traders are a real good risk managment tool aren't they!
> 
> ...



BSD,

You might have read this already but FYI

http://www.reuters.com/article/fundsFundsNews/idUSN2845148420070228



> NEW YORK, Feb 28 (Reuters) - Dow Jones Indexes expects the calculation of the Dow Jones industrial average to be glitch-free on Wednesday, the index provider said, a day after a computer system malfunction contributed to an abrupt slide in the blue-chip index as U.S. stocks sold off.
> 
> "Dow Jones is continuing to investigate the (system) latency issue to correct the root cause of the problem," Michael Petronella, president of Dow Jones Indexes, said in a statement.
> 
> ...


----------



## BSD (1 March 2007)

Thanks for that Wayne

That gap was more interesting (and cool to see) than anything that came out of yesterday. 

The look on CNBC's Money Honey's face was priceless. 

A seventy minute delay? That is horrid when you consider the amount of program traders, equity arbs and hedgers trying to use the Dow index for whatever reason. 

Imagine running an equity arb book on silly tight margins and finding out every trade you made was based on the index value 70 minutes ago.

That cannot be right


----------



## wayneL (1 March 2007)

BSD said:
			
		

> Thanks for that Wayne
> 
> That gap was more interesting (and cool to see) than anything that came out of yesterday.
> 
> ...




I recall when I first started trading futures about 4 years ago there was a fat finger event.

Someone accidently added an extra zero to a sell order at market and the dow futures tanked 5 or 700 points in a few seconds!

It was surreal, we (guys on MIRC) thought WW3 must have started.

But a few minutes later all was back to where it started. CBOT busted the trades however.

Certainly exciting when these things happen.


----------



## money tree (1 March 2007)

wayneL said:
			
		

> Crashy, my treacherous friend. You forget who your friends are.
> 
> As stated above, it's not the call, it's how you trade what's in front of you. I don't mind trading against my own sentiment, as detailed throughout this forum.
> 
> Calling this fall? Bah! it was bleedin' obvious.




I suppose its not unusual for wayne to see conspiracy in everything.

Sometimes, a "friend" will tell you when you are making an ass of yourself. Especially one who made the same exact error (well kinda.....I was a permabear during a BEAR market, but all my ranting never helped anyone). But if it helps you deal with it, you go right ahead and make me the bad guy.


----------



## ducati916 (2 March 2007)

Well Wall St opened at DJIA -200


----------



## ducati916 (2 March 2007)

S&P500 -22
NAS -45


----------



## borat (2 March 2007)

feel the correction has a more to come, the slightest hicup bring with it over reaction... I'm still waiting for things to settle before I start snapping up bargains... Yagshemash!


----------



## theasxgorilla (2 March 2007)

borat said:
			
		

> feel the correction has a more to come




No kidding...the S&P500 is off 1.5% already.


----------



## wayneL (2 March 2007)

money tree said:
			
		

> I suppose its not unusual for wayne to see conspiracy in everything.
> 
> Sometimes, a "friend" will tell you when *you are making an ass of yourself.* Especially one who made the same exact error (well kinda.....I was a permabear during a BEAR market, but all my ranting never helped anyone). But if it helps you deal with it, you go right ahead and make me the bad guy.




The irony was hilarious Crashy. Was it intentional?


----------



## wayneL (2 March 2007)

ducati916 said:
			
		

> DD
> 
> I'd say this will be a correction along the May type last year.
> If the correction places enough pressure on counter-parties we may see something serious.
> ...




http://yahoo.reuters.com/news/artic...tnews&rpc=44&ref=myrealestatemoney.com/RENEWS



> NEW YORK, Feb 28 (Reuters) - Rising delinquencies may cause losses within some subprime mortgage bonds rated as high as the "A" rated classes, despite conventional wisdom that only the lowest-rated mortgage securities would be hit, according to UBS Securities data.
> 
> Among the 20 subprime asset-backed securities in a benchmark index, the ABX 06-2 index, run by Markit Group Ltd., six will likely sustain losses to "BBB-" classes based on UBS calculations, analysts led by Laurie Goodman said in a research note released on Tuesday.
> 
> ...


----------



## billhill (2 March 2007)

Wayne or duc, I'm interested in how the bond market may signal a crash. I know little about bonds so in plain english are rising or falling bond yeilds an indicator of a stock market crash.

cheers


----------



## Kauri (2 March 2007)

Meanwhile, the dow futures are struggling early on again


----------



## theasxgorilla (2 March 2007)

Kauri said:
			
		

> Meanwhile, the dow futures are struggling early on again




I'll be curious to see what tonight (US day) brings...yesterdays price action (bar) on the S&P500 was indicative of market that was not able to find any selling support worth mentioning below the oh so psychological 1400 level.

What is there, besides ongoing sentiment, to drive the market below 1400 tonight?  Any news, figures or prior events from other parts of the world that will weigh on the US market?


----------



## wayneL (3 March 2007)

Yen ticking up
Dow ticking down

YCT


----------



## Kauri (3 March 2007)

theasxgorilla said:
			
		

> I'll be curious to see what tonight (US day) brings...yesterdays price action (bar) on the S&P500 was indicative of market that was not able to find any selling support worth mentioning below the oh so psychological 1400 level.
> 
> What is there, besides ongoing sentiment, to drive the market below 1400 tonight? Any news, figures or prior events from other parts of the world that will weigh on the US market?




   1400 might correspond to the support line in the Dow... fundementally I am , as always, completely lost..


----------



## theasxgorilla (3 March 2007)

billhill said:
			
		

> Wayne or duc, I'm interested in how the bond market may signal a crash. I know little about bonds so in plain english are rising or falling bond yeilds an indicator of a stock market crash.
> 
> cheers




Can someone please respond to this? I have a basic understanding but my explanation would not do the topic justice.


----------



## Sean K (3 March 2007)

wayneL said:
			
		

> Yen ticking up
> Dow ticking down
> 
> YCT



YCT? Whats the Avatar Wayne? Looks like the US, but there's some detail I can't see. Must admit, I liked the hammock one the best.

Not sure what all this Yen action is going to do to a couple of my managed funds. I have 3 funds managed by Platinum who are big into Japan and their currency in a way that significantly reflects in their performance. I hope they had it right this time....


----------



## theasxgorilla (3 March 2007)

Kauri said:
			
		

> 1400 might correspond to the support line in the Dow... fundementally I am , as always, completely lost..




I think 1,400 was closer to 12,250...


----------



## wayneL (3 March 2007)

kennas said:
			
		

> YCT?




Sorry
YCT = Yen Carry Trade

As mentioned before the yen and the Dow (as proxy for any US indice) has developed quite a strong inverse correlation over the last three months. This week is has been particularly noticable.

So as the yen rises against other currencies, and particularly the USD, the carry trade unwinds forcing a liquidation of USD assets, viz, equities.



			
				kennas said:
			
		

> Whats the Avatar Wayne? Looks like the US, but there's some detail I can't see. Must admit, I liked the hammock one the best.



It's showing how a bull carcass is carved up  



			
				kennas said:
			
		

> Not sure what all this Yen action is going to do to a couple of my managed funds. I have 3 funds managed by Platinum who are big into Japan and their currency in a way that significantly reflects in their performance. I hope they had it right this time....



I hope they are long yen  

Cheers


----------



## ducati916 (3 March 2007)

billhill said:
			
		

> Wayne or duc, I'm interested in how the bond market may signal a crash. I know little about bonds so in plain english are rising or falling bond yeilds an indicator of a stock market crash.
> 
> cheers




Ok;

We are looking for the bond market to signal the equity market, thus we are not principally worried about the net yield, but the *yield spread*

We would look for an increasing spread between Treasuries and Corporates.
Thus in a flight to safety, the Treasury yield will fall [as they are bought] and Corporate yield will rise [as they are sold]

This will mean that corporate borrowing, or the cost of capital will rise, thus pressuring profit margins, thus reducing net profits.

If, corporations cannot *afford* debt, they must sell Equity.
Increased selling = increased supply = falling prices = increased cost of capital

Therefore, to maintain margins, in an increased cost of capital environment, corporations go to cost cutting;
*labour
*advertising
*R&D
*Dinner parties
*capital goods % investment
*Acquisitions & Mergers
*Others

As profit margins fall, P/E ratio's rise, thus selling via investors triggers momo traders, etc.

Thus we are looking for the flight to safety, away from the riskiest credits, thus an opening spread.

The flight to safety is also a trigger to close the Yen carry trade [on the blog]

jog on
d998


----------



## noirua (3 March 2007)

U.S. 1987 crash:  http://www.lope.ca/markets/1987crash/


----------



## ducati916 (14 March 2007)

Wakey-wakey guy's

The US market has thrown the toy's out of the pram again today.
As I type;

S&P500 [-25.1]
DJIA [-214]
NASDAQ [-45]

Watch out...................

jog on
d998


----------



## wayneL (14 March 2007)

ducati916 said:
			
		

> Wakey-wakey guy's
> 
> The US market has thrown the toy's out of the pram again today.
> As I type;
> ...




...and the Yen gave the heads up.


----------



## Porper (14 March 2007)

wayneL said:
			
		

> ...and the Yen gave the heads up.




Yes, not looking good.All the good guys look like being correct.

Looks like we had a quick Bull Trap after the drop 2 weeks ago and now we are going down again.

Just put my first ever short on the XJO index.

Still doesn't feel right though somehow.


----------



## ducati916 (14 March 2007)

*enzo*

As far as I am concerned this is an inflection point [from when China spewed last week] for the end of the cyclical bull, and the resumption of the secular bear market.

All the arguments for are on the blog.
Suffice to say, we''ll see how it pans out, but a hedge fund just blew out $800M today and will be liquidated.

The market is starting to exact the toll for cheap risk.

jog on
d998


----------



## wayneL (14 March 2007)

ducati916 said:
			
		

> *enzo*
> 
> As far as I am concerned this is an inflection point [from when China spewed last week] for the end of the cyclical bull, and the resumption of the secular bear market.
> 
> ...



Agree, not looking good from here.


----------



## rico01 (14 March 2007)

Beeuuuttiifful
   Come on down
   Its a great time to be in puts


----------



## ducati916 (14 March 2007)

Porper said:
			
		

> Yes, not looking good.All the good guys look like being correct.
> 
> Looks like we had a quick Bull Trap after the drop 2 weeks ago and now we are going down again.
> 
> ...




You feel guilty, almost anti-capitalism.
But you know what..............
When the profits roll in.............somehow you just manage to get over it.
Strange how it works that way.

jog on
d998


----------



## tech/a (14 March 2007)

Thought it was pretty clear yesterday.

https://www.aussiestockforums.com/forums/showthread.php?p=133849#post133849


----------



## wavepicker (14 March 2007)

rico01 said:
			
		

> Beeuuuttiifful
> Come on down
> Its a great time to be in puts




Isn't that the truth!!!!!!!!!!!

Whether the bulls like it or not, this market is going back to 5000, it cannot be any other way.


----------



## wayneL (14 March 2007)

Downside trading curbs in again.

http://today.reuters.com/news/artic...77212_RTRIDST_0_MARKETS-NYSE-CURBS-URGENT.XML


----------



## Uncle Festivus (14 March 2007)

wayneL said:
			
		

> Downside trading curbs in again.
> 
> http://today.reuters.com/news/artic...77212_RTRIDST_0_MARKETS-NYSE-CURBS-URGENT.XML




Great to see the free market in action.

Even Moses Bernanke can't stop the derivatives sea from turning into a tsunami.

I think it's what everybody knew but was afraid to say in public. 

*The emperor has no clothes*


----------



## Uncle Festivus (14 March 2007)

ducati916 said:
			
		

> We are looking for the bond market to signal the equity market, thus we are not principally worried about the net yield, but the *yield spread*
> 
> We would look for an increasing spread between Treasuries and Corporates.
> Thus in a flight to safety, the Treasury yield will fall [as they are bought] and Corporate yield will rise [as they are sold]



........The current stability in yields will not last much longer. The downtrend and uptrend lines are converging quickly, forcing an eventual a breakout in one direction or another. On Monday, the 10-year yield was at 4.555%; the uptrend line came in around 4.52% and the downtrend line came in around 4.95%. 
Either way, stocks aren't likely to be happy.
A break above or below long-term trendlines puts the current soft-landing, Goldilocks economy scenario at serious risk. And risk is what the stock market fears the most.

Full story


----------



## ducati916 (14 March 2007)

No they won't, downgrades are coming thick and fast in the US, and soon the yield spread will start to open up.

For instance DuPont [DD] Budweiser [BUD] and Federated [FD] all downgraded
As for the Junk, it's starting to go t1ts-up.

I see the ASX is getting spanked today currently, wouldn't want you guys to feel left out now would we.

jog on
d998


----------



## Uncle Festivus (14 March 2007)

I'm a bit confused now Ducati, are you not both saying the same thing in a round a bout sort of way? Bottom line is a recession?


----------



## ducati916 (14 March 2007)

Uncle Festivus said:
			
		

> I'm a bit confused now Ducati, are you not both saying the same thing in a round a bout sort of way? Bottom line is a recession?




Bottom line is a recession.
I would call it for the end of 1Q start of 2Q 2008

jog on
d998


----------



## money tree (14 March 2007)

recession = rate cut = weak USD = $$$ for me


----------



## wayneL (15 March 2007)

Dow dips under 12000 and new lows for this correction/bear


----------



## Kauri (15 March 2007)

And the FTSE is taking a real hiding too  2.5%


----------



## ducati916 (15 March 2007)

S&P500 getting spanked again.
You ASX guy's are in for some more today I guess as well.

jog on
d998


----------



## JoshyJ (15 March 2007)

Looks like hibernation is ending and the bear is starting to wake with a very very grumpy attitude. ( I was expecting a recession end of the year or early next year, gotta admit i might of been way off. Especially after seeing the US markets today. )


----------



## ducati916 (15 March 2007)

Seem to be staging an EOD comeback.

jog on
d998


----------



## wayneL (15 March 2007)

ducati916 said:
			
		

> Seem to be staging an EOD comeback.
> 
> jog on
> d998



Gotta snatch that short side profit when it's there... these short covering rallies can be vicious.

As it happened I was just about to cover some futures at s2 when my broadband dropped out, had to rely on trailing stop... costly.


----------



## ducati916 (15 March 2007)

wayneL said:
			
		

> Gotta snatch that short side profit when it's there... these short covering rallies can be vicious.
> 
> As it happened I was just about to cover some futures at s2 when my broadband dropped out, had to rely on trailing stop... costly.





At least you had a back-up in place.
I've had some lousy fills today, the MM must be suffering in the volatility too that they need to steal the odd penny here & there.

jog on
d998


----------



## Uncle Festivus (15 March 2007)

Re the DOW - was this a genuine bounce on bargain hunting (Lehman, GM profits etc) or market manipulation eg PPT in action as the DOW looked like falling through the floor. Just another shorting opportunity on the second dead cat bounce  ?


----------



## CanOz (15 March 2007)

Uncle Festivus said:
			
		

> Re the DOW - was this a genuine bounce on bargain hunting (Lehman, GM profits etc) or market manipulation eg PPT in action as the DOW looked like falling through the floor. Just another shorting opportunity on the second dead cat bounce  ?




Just what i was thinking....PPT at its finist.

Cheers,


----------



## professor_frink (15 March 2007)

CanOz said:
			
		

> Just what i was thinking....PPT at its finist.
> 
> Cheers,



if "they" were trying to prop it up, they didn't have to work too hard at it. Volume was increasing on the move down from 1389 to 1375 on the ES, there weren't any suspicious looking volume spikes as it was finding a bottom. It all looked pretty normal to me.


----------



## ducati916 (15 March 2007)

The DJIA is not really what you want to be watching. It's 30 mega-caps and is always a refuge in a flight to safety.

S&P500 & Nasdaq + Russell are the three you need to watch.

jog on
d998


----------



## CanOz (15 March 2007)

professor_frink said:
			
		

> if "they" were trying to prop it up, they didn't have to work too hard at it. Volume was increasing on the move down from 1389 to 1375 on the ES, there weren't any suspicious looking volume spikes as it was finding a bottom. It all looked pretty normal to me.




Prof...if you were the man in charge of the traders on the PPT, how would you instruct them to absorb the selling? 

Just playing devil's advocate here. 

Cheers,


----------



## Atomic5 (15 March 2007)

Cant wait for the 3rd dead cat    *not*

There is something wrong in all this.

Just MHO / DYOR of course


----------



## professor_frink (15 March 2007)

CanOz said:
			
		

> Prof...if you were the man in charge of the traders on the PPT, how would you instruct them to absorb the selling?
> 
> Just playing devil's advocate here.
> 
> Cheers,



For me, it would be simple- line in the sand here- when it gets there- buy until it starts going up.

Which would generally mean some pretty big volume going through at the bottom. This morning showed nothing like that at all on the ES, and the ER2, NQ and YM were all pretty well the same.


----------



## Uncle Festivus (15 March 2007)

ducati916 said:
			
		

> The DJIA is not really what you want to be watching. It's 30 mega-caps and is always a refuge in a flight to safety.
> 
> S&P500 & Nasdaq + Russell are the three you need to watch.
> 
> ...



Yes, that's right. But apparently all the rest of the world get their direction from 30 companies in the DOW, so what to do; go with the flow _today_.

Thats why the PPT use the dow as an amplifier by using leverage at the most opportune time for maximum effect I assume.


----------



## Sean K (15 March 2007)

Atomic5 said:
			
		

> Cant wait for the 3rd dead cat    *not*
> 
> There is something wrong in all this.
> 
> Just MHO / DYOR of course



I'm still not sure what you're talking about here Atomic. A dead cat is a bounce UP. Why are you so worried about this? Are you short? If it's a dead cat it will go back down anyway...


----------



## ducati916 (15 March 2007)

Uncle Festivus said:
			
		

> Yes, that's right. But apparently all the rest of the world get their direction from 30 companies in the DOW, so what to do; go with the flow _today_.
> 
> Thats why the PPT use the dow as an amplifier by using leverage at the most opportune time for maximum effect I assume.




Depends on who you define as the *rest of the world*, if it's the newspaper reading public, then quite possibly. If however it is the market traders you will be competing against, then I don't think so.

jog on
d998


----------



## Atomic5 (15 March 2007)

kennas said:
			
		

> I'm still not sure what you're talking about here Atomic. A dead cat is a bounce UP. Why are you so worried about this? Are you short? If it's a dead cat it will go back down anyway...




Next dip and bounce will be the third time. On Monday I thought this one was going to be the KO so didn't get back in. 

But I was wrong, as usual.

Though I still cant believe that the resucitation isn't due to manipulation. The US is already pedling +ve inflation figures for the rest of the week, and I just see the US as one big ENRON with PPT and helicopter.


----------



## dubiousinfo (15 March 2007)

Ok I am offically confused now. Today has just given back everything from yesterday's drop. Not what I figured would happen at all.


----------



## greggy (15 March 2007)

dubiousinfo said:
			
		

> Ok I am offically confused now. Today has just given back everything from yesterday's drop. Not what I figured would happen at all.



Welcome all to a volatile market.  Just got to grin and bear it for the moment.
DYOR


----------



## dubiousinfo (16 March 2007)

As soon as things start going to plan, those pesky MM's keep widening the spread.

Life would be a whole lot easier if we had the same liquidity as the US markets.


----------



## GreatPig (16 March 2007)

greggy said:
			
		

> Just got to grin and bear it for the moment.



Interesting choice of words...

As Baloo once said: look for the bear necessities, the simple bear necessities 

GP


----------



## Atomic5 (16 March 2007)

kennas said:
			
		

> I'm still not sure what you're talking about here Atomic. A dead cat is a bounce UP. Why are you so worried about this? Are you short? If it's a dead cat it will go back down anyway...




Questions?
Do 'dips' _always _ bounce? 

When will the (next) dip not bounce? Any guesses?


----------



## money tree (16 March 2007)

money tree said:
			
		

> recession = rate cut = weak USD = $$$ for me




GBP up around 1.95. EUR @ 1.3340. love it


----------



## Kimosabi (16 March 2007)

You know it's bad when the Bears start dancing...


----------



## ducati916 (17 March 2007)

Ok charties, check out the two time periods of the DJIA;


jog on
d998


----------



## Atomic5 (17 March 2007)

money tree said:
			
		

> recession = rate cut = weak USD = $$$ for me
> 
> GBP up around 1.95. EUR @ 1.3340. love it




He may _not_ cut. :vader:


----------



## theasxgorilla (30 March 2007)

Is anybody still, 'Charting the Crash'???


----------



## Atomic5 (30 March 2007)

What crash?


----------



## theasxgorilla (30 March 2007)

Atomic5 said:


> What crash?




Touche'...Elliott Wave A & B:
_
"During the A wave of a bear market, the investment world is generally convinced that this reaction is just a pullback pursuant to the next leg of advance. The public surges to the buy side despite the first really technically damaging cracks in individual stock patterns." The B-wave rallies that follow exhibit "aggressive euphoria and denial."_

I'm just the messenger...based on the lack of posting along these lines recently I expect I'm about as uncertain as everyone else.


----------



## wayneL (27 July 2007)

Just dusting off this thread.... just in case.


----------



## Sean K (27 July 2007)

wayneL said:


> Just dusting off this thread.... just in case.



No cartoon?


----------



## wayneL (27 July 2007)

kennas said:


> No cartoon?



Well... we have been 300 down on the Dow...


----------



## theasxgorilla (27 July 2007)

It's happening...


----------



## wayneL (27 July 2007)

IB Bulletin just received:



> Due to volatile trading, Interactive Brokers invites all our clients to review the exchange policies for circuit breakers and daily price limits...



This is the first time I've ever got a bulletin like this from IB.

I think the poo might just hit the propeller.


----------



## wayneL (27 July 2007)

No quotes on SYCOM? 

Anyone know what's happening there


----------



## theasxgorilla (27 July 2007)

Don't even know what SYCOM is...I'm just watching 20 minute delays on Bigcharts, down 2.61% at last refresh:


----------



## wayneL (27 July 2007)

theasxgorilla said:


> Don't even know what SYCOM is...I'm just watching 20 minute delays on Bigcharts, down 2.61% at last refresh:




*SY*dney
*C*omposite
*O*vernight
*M*arket

It's the overnight SPI.

Qoutes back up and just printed 6070 *-261*


----------



## wayneL (27 July 2007)

Dow just ticked over 400 down.

SPI bids at 6021


----------



## theasxgorilla (27 July 2007)

Another wave of capitulation on the SPY...1469.24, down 3.22%:


----------



## Uncle Festivus (27 July 2007)

Plunge Protection Team anyone, about now?


----------



## theasxgorilla (27 July 2007)

Uncle Festivus said:


> Plunge Protection Team anyone, about now?




I think they're on an _extended summer vacation_...oops, bad timing guys.


----------



## wayneL (27 July 2007)

Uncle Festivus said:


> Plunge Protection Team anyone, about now?



Yes I think they've been trying, but are getting overwhelmed at the moment.

IMO


----------



## noirua (27 July 2007)

In some markets it has been just that little shove that has tipped them over the edge. The UK Footsie 100 Index finished down 203.1 points ( 3.15%) at 6251.2.
Recent floods have concerned the insurance sector and worries over inflated prices in the new Flat (appartment) sector has caused a very sudden reversal in property prices. The mining sector has taken a bit of a drubbing as virtually every stock in every sector declined.
Is it the case that the boom is over or is it just another sharp Annual reversal?
Watch China and Asia as markets open today!


----------



## Uncle Festivus (27 July 2007)

Is Bill Gross a prophet or just stating the obvious? Quite a bit to go if he is to be proven correct.

The problem for Australia is that if this correction get's legs then under the new super rules withdrawals are tax free. A run on super funds = selling the biggest asset they have eg shares = share market goes down = more redemptions= etc etc a vicious spiral down. 

Something about all the eggs in the one basket?

Short everything, long gold?
-----------------------------------------------
It's started already - denial! 

*SAN FRANCISCO (MarketWatch) -- Outflows in U.S. mutual funds on Tuesday hit an estimated $5.5 billion, according to TrimTabs Investment Research. *

That would amount to the second-biggest outflow of the year, according to the data tracking firm. Only a $6.5 billion outflow on Feb. 27 was greater. 
"Fear and ignorance seem to be gripping retail investors these days," said Charles Biderman, chief executive of Santa Rosa, Calif.-based TrimTabs on Thursday, pointing to ongoing concerns about subprime lending and slumping housing markets. 

"*There's no credit risk; no bank is going to lose money on this subprime fear*," he added. "Income-tax collections are strong, and you don't have a housing collapse when wage income and job growth are surging." 
Biderman said that Tuesday's outflows seem to have trickled into Wednesday, although final estimates won't' be available until later in the week. 

"This is a complete panic by individual investors," he commented. "They just don't know what's going on." 

During the past five trading days, U.S. equity funds lost an estimated $7.6 billion. By contrast, the biggest down day of the year in February came after Chinese stocks plunged 9% in a day on fears of rising inflation. 
The TrimTabs chief is advising that investors take lower pricing in stocks as an opportunity to buy more of their favorite mutual funds. "Credit markets have been lending outrageous sums on very favorable terms. But it's not like they're stopping completely. They're just slowing down," Biderman said. 

"Companies will continue to buy other companies. *Any belief that credit-market turbulence spells the end to this year's bull market is ridiculous*."


----------



## chops_a_must (27 July 2007)

wayneL said:


> Dow just ticked over 400 down.
> 
> SPI bids at 6021



Is this usually accurate for open?

Just as well I don't care about money, and can laugh.

What gets me is in the ASX, financials have been one of the strongest sectors. This problem, appears to be a purely financially related one. Yet, people have been walking into the danger zone for safety.  Just more proof orrstralians are dumber than most.  lol!


----------



## theasxgorilla (27 July 2007)

wayneL said:


> Yes I think they've been trying, but are getting overwhelmed at the moment.
> 
> IMO




Looks like George Dubya finally managed to get some of the PPT on their _cell phones_.  Support around 1475ish.


----------



## wayneL (27 July 2007)

chops_a_must said:


> Is this usually accurate for open?



Not at that stage of the night. Bids at 6091 now and could be anywhere by the open.


theasxgorilla said:


> Looks like George Dubya finally managed to get some of the PPT on their _cell phones_.  Support around 1475ish.



Yer, he musta got hold of Bernanke and told him to put another shift on at the printing press... especially for GS account number 95.


----------



## Uncle Festivus (27 July 2007)

wayneL said:


> Not at that stage of the night. Bids at 6091 now and could be anywhere by the open.
> 
> Yer, he musta got hold of Bernanke and told him to put another shift on at the printing press... especially for GS account number 95.




Are we talking about the same GS? 



> Lenders are getting a "wake-up call" about pricing risk, Treasury Secretary Henry Paulson said in a televised interview Thursday, as U.S. stock markets plunged amid fears about shaky credit markets and the housing sector. Paulson said he wants to see more "discipline" on the part of borrowers and lenders. Meanwhile, Paulson said, the ongoing shakeout in the subprime lending market is going to be "largely contained" and doesn't seem to pose a threat to the overall economy.


----------



## theasxgorilla (27 July 2007)

Nice work PPT...1475 holding on the SPY...how do they pick these levels?  Do you have to know Gann to get into the PPT?  Is 1475 any thing significant, other than where price is holding now?


----------



## Uncle Festivus (27 July 2007)

theasxgorilla said:


> Nice work PPT...1475 holding on the SPY...how do they pick these levels? Do you have to know Gann to get into the PPT? Is 1475 any thing significant, other than where price is holding now?




400 seems to be the magic number; I remember this was roughly the same amount the Dow corrected by overall back in March. Tonights session will be the one to watch to see if they can talk it back up?


----------



## wavepicker (27 July 2007)

ahhhhhh,

I see red, I see red, see red.......
nothing like watching a bloodbath first thing in the morning

It's ben a long, long time between drinks for the bears

Looks like them bulls are not gonna be happy chappies today...


----------



## noirua (27 July 2007)

Black Monday, 19th October 1987 sent shivers down the spines of everyone in the financial world. Unlike the 1973-75 Major Bear Market it included the Gold sector and wiped 41.8% off the Aussie index in the 12 days that followed. The smaller mining sector recorded a 75% hit.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Black_Monday_(1987))

On the Thursday before the crash on Black Monday the UK was hit by the most enormous storm that felled millions of trees. Strange how the UK has just been hit by enormous floods in the middle of Summer.


----------



## Sean K (27 July 2007)

Just heard $300b wiped off the S&P. 

Technical correction IMO.

Especially for Australia. 

Profits are up, unemployment low, inflation OK, pe's are not overstretched, housing has had a correction and come back OK, interest rates are still reasonable and not going anywhere fast, people aren't too happy!!. 

Just a pause for us. 

I'm looking for some good shorts though:

WDC, RMD, RIN, anything else linked to the US....


----------



## Kauri (27 July 2007)

A picture still says it a lot better than I could....


----------



## macca (27 July 2007)

BUT  !!!!!!!!!!!

The AUD is down against the USD, if we apply that to all resources, our miners are better value today than yesterday 

I think we are still going to be down but that AUD fall will help


----------



## Gundini (27 July 2007)

Recovering quite strongly now though macca, 87.42 after being in the 86 range this morning...


----------



## ducati916 (27 July 2007)

*Kauri*

Very cool chart. Have no idea whether it will *work* but very cool nonetheless.

jog on
d998


----------



## DB008 (27 July 2007)

down 163 and still counting. 
Sometimes it seems easier to just wait 6 months to a year and go short on the ASX (IMO) with CFD's.


----------



## Kauri (27 July 2007)

ducati916 said:


> *Kauri*
> 
> Very cool chart. Have no idea whether it will *work* but very cool nonetheless.
> 
> ...




 Duc,
        Was even *cooler* 5 weeks back on the 21st June when I first posted it.....
    Cheers
.............Kauri


----------



## ducati916 (27 July 2007)

*Kauri*

The ASX printed the same shape back in I believe 2003, just prior to launching into your Bull market.

I think it was Guppy that posted the chart [same hemisphere shape]

Although that particular pattern failed, conditions and values are much changed four years later.

The pattern that you identified on the ASX, looks as if it may *fit* the S&P500 chart, has that initial curvature.

jog on
d998


----------



## theasxgorilla (28 July 2007)

Well will you look at that...support at 1462.


----------



## wayneL (28 July 2007)

OK what's this dumpage all about? The excuses proffered so far:

*Sub-Prime Contagion
*Removal of uptick rule for shorts
*Yen carry trade unwind
*Funds cashing out to build a war chest.

Let's look at these one at a time.

*Sub-Prime Contagion - Well Duh!!! All the Wally's who said it was all contained should be tied up to posts and their tongues cut out. Of course it was going to take out the rest of the economy... 'nuf said?

*Removal of uptick rule for shorts - Absolute BS! Institutions have been able to do it (shortsell without an uptick) via derivative proxies forever. It's only the small fry like us that can now do this now... and we have always been able to do it with futures... erroneous at best.

*Yen carry trade unwind - Empirically, this is not only back on the agenda, but looks to serious. While the Dollar has been in a strong retrace against Euro, Pound, AUD etc, it is getting absolutely poleaxed by the Yen. The carry trade is unwinding and unwinding fast.

*Funds cashing out to build a war chest. - According to at least one money manager, the evidence is in the oilers being crunched in the face of rising crude. Conclusion - the funds want CASH.

... and look at treasuries. There is mountains of cash going there in the face of a crising interest rate environment as safe haven. Expect some volatility there!

IMO, This is the beginning of the credit bubble apocalypse. The $417 is finally hitting the fan. This is not to say we go straight down from here, but we should be aware of that possibility... and at least expect massive VOLATILITY.

Cheers... be careful folks.


----------



## Uncle Festivus (28 July 2007)

It's a bit ironic that cash is king at the moment, the flight to 'percieved' safety, but nobody has told them it's not worth anything either. The real action will start when this is realised en masse. Getting set for the next phase...
Can I cash out my super yet?


----------



## wavepicker (28 July 2007)

Uncle Festivus said:


> It's a bit ironic that cash is king at the moment, the flight to 'percieved' safety, but nobody has told them it's not worth anything either. The real action will start when this is realised en masse. Getting set for the next phase...
> Can I cash out my super yet?




That's a very important point Uncle, I was thinking avou that aspect yesterday as I have seen quite a few people retiring this year at work. The so called "baby boomer" generation. 

If this turns into something worse in the weeks and months ahead, what will be running through their minds???

For now though you are right cash is king, and for those who got short, "ka chiiing" is king. Got short the SP500 last week and have been very happy so far. Has turned out to be my best trade for the year and still holding!!
Market is impulsing down and still has further to go so will look at taking some profit when starts to become at risk.


Cheers


----------



## theasxgorilla (28 July 2007)

wavepicker said:


> If this turns into something worse in the weeks and months ahead, what will be running through their minds???




'00 to '02 many saw 30-40% evaporate in less than a year.  But it took only a couple more years after that and they were back in the black and a few more after that (today) their superfund balances are at levels they never imagined.

I think the multitude don't use any form of technical analysis and probably wont find out how hard any pull back has hit them until they receive next months statement.


----------



## theasxgorilla (28 July 2007)

wayneL said:


> *Funds cashing out to build a war chest. - According to at least one money manager, the evidence is in the oilers being crunched in the face of rising crude. Conclusion - the funds want CASH.
> 
> ... and look at treasuries. There is mountains of cash going there in the face of a crising interest rate environment as safe haven. Expect some volatility there!




Cut it and shape it any which way you like...funds going to cash and cash going to treasuries means a consensus vote of sorts that for the time being equities has run out of _greater fools_.

Geez listen to me, I'm actually beginning to sound like a *bear*.


----------



## macca (28 July 2007)

I notice the AUD is down to USD .8517 on FX overnight.

That is down over 3 cents in 2 days, that is a huge plunge for the AUD/USD, usually fairly slow mover.

Have to ask why ? usually it would be either our interest rates is going down or the US interest is going up, can't really see either of them happening soon.

So why are $$$ leaving AUD to go to USD, any thoughts ?

From our exporters point of view this is great news, long term the $$$$ for our resource markets just improved BUT we have to get past this correction first !!


----------



## Uncle Festivus (28 July 2007)

macca said:


> So why are $$$ leaving AUD to go to USD, any thoughts ?




A confluence of contagion maybe? Cycles lining up together? As per Gorilla, flight to 'percieved' safety of treasuries coinciding with an oversold $US shaking out the shorts in a big way. Technical rally underway?


----------



## Bushman (28 July 2007)

noirua said:


> On the Thursday before the crash on Black Monday the UK was hit by the most enormous storm that felled millions of trees. Strange how the UK has just been hit by enormous floods in the middle of Summer.





It is amazing how a risk to the fort brings on a flight from the rational to the irrational. Proves that in the short term, this is a game driven as much by the subconcious (fear, greed) as the concious. Wonder when someone will start quoting Nostradamus...

These type of events always provide a time for reflection. I have not sold down my portfolio as I do not having everything at stake (only a couple of year's worth of bonuses) so can afford to ride this out. With housing prices out of reach for even Gen X's on good salaries, I see the commodities boom as a calculated gamble to earn a deposit and set myself up. I am already 'cash rich' but unfortunately 'asset poor'. That is a due to a juxtaposition of lifestyle choices (just hit my 30's; spent my 20's studying and travelling) and the fact that I live in an age where the ability to afford the primary asset available to my parents generation (ie the family home) is no longer readily in reach. Shares are liquid, have low barriers to entry and, in a commodities super cycle, seem to offer a good risk/reward profile. Time will tell. If there is a repeat of 1987, and the 75% melt down in mining prices occur, then it will be a bad call but at least I have given it a go. If it does happen, I will take my money out of what is left of my riskier profile, pump them into the extremely undervalued BHP and Rio Tinto, and forget about them for 5 years until the psyche around the world recovers and we all ride the wave again. But I am 31 & childless so I can say that as I have a higher tolerance for risk.

As for the current 'correction', Stephen Bartholomeuz has provided an excellent snapshot of the reasons for the current sell down. The issue is if the contagion of the sub prime market spreads first to the prime mortgage market & the banks and then to consumer sentiment. Does anyone really think that banks will start collapsing a la the 1930's? I don't think so in a time of political stability. Is a repeat of the 1980's US credit crunch on the cards? A possibility off-set by the fact that China and India are on their way to becoming massive economies, thus diluting the impact of US consumers tucking their money under their beds again. Time will tell. US GDP growth was 3% this quarter. I will be most interested in the next quarterly US GDP and housing market indices.

Now what would happen if a meteor hit New York? 

Good luck guys especially those re-connecting with their inner bears. It is healthy to remind ourselves that the market is janus faced creature. We all knew that the market would have a correction. All markets do. Those two social sciences, economics and psychology, ensure this.  


http://www.theage.com.au/news/business/risk-is-always-part-of-equation/2007/07/27/1185339259938.html


----------



## noirua (28 July 2007)

Everything repeats itself and nothing is new; Whether it be tulip bulbs, dotcom or a raging growth story in China. All it needs is sellers out numbering buyers and charts going back back to the early 1700's, all tell the same story.

What sectors are good, well, none if self feeding occurs as it did in 1929-32 and 1973-75.

It's different this time! No! It's always the same.

The answer is to keep plenty of cash. Well, maybe that's why the slides start.

What stocks are worth holding in a crash? Only those who have lots of cash and little or no debt. Hope and glory stocks will hit the pavement.

On the other hand, maybe there's no worries this time round or even the next. Eventually though, the charts will repeat themselves and the words of Lord Rothschild will be proven right as they were in the 1920 and 1930's. "I always sold too soon", and he later bought the bombed out sectors and made a fortune.


----------



## theasxgorilla (28 July 2007)

noirua said:


> Everything repeats itself and nothing is new;




Price action throughout history may show ups and downs and therefore we continue to have trends...but the underlying mechanics of economic activity are quite different today...so I don't think you can apply last centuries economics to try and explain todays market moves.  There are so many layers of derivatives and credit wrapped around and repackaged that measures are distorted (manipulated??) beyond what old economics can presently explain.

Albeit, price action remains king.


----------



## wavepicker (28 July 2007)

theasxgorilla said:


> Price action throughout history may show ups and downs and therefore we continue to have trends...but the underlying mechanics of economic activity are quite different today...so I don't think you can apply last centuries economics to try and explain todays market moves.  There are so many layers of derivatives and credit wrapped around and repackaged that measures are distorted (manipulated??) beyond what old economics can presently explain.
> 
> Albeit, price action remains king.





Economics may have changed, but what makes the markets move (people), have not. It's still hope, fear, and greed in people that propels the markets. These traits have never and will never change. That is essentially why you see the same wave structures and patterns in the market today as were were evident centuries ago.


----------



## Sean K (29 July 2007)

wavepicker said:


> Economics may have changed, but what makes the markets move (people), have not. It's still hope, fear, and greed in people that propels the markets. These traits have never and will never change. That is essentially why you see the same wave structures and patterns in the market today as were were evident centuries ago.



Hope, fear and greed might cause the waves, but I don't think it drives the underlying long term market trend, which for the past 100 years has been up. This has been caused by free market capitalism which results in companies *increasing profits*, and will remain so in the long run. This can be a correction, or a crash, but the market will make new highs again. One day.  Unless capitalism has failed.


----------



## theasxgorilla (29 July 2007)

wavepicker said:


> Economics may have changed, but what makes the markets move (people), have not. It's still hope, fear, and greed in people that propels the markets. These traits have never and will never change. That is essentially why you see the same wave structures and patterns in the market today as were were evident centuries ago.




Although, the mechanisms that participants have available today are so much more advanced (scary?).  Home equity loans, Index Futures, Housing Futures, CFDs...all new ways for participants to make money appear, make it flow and leverage the impact of their decisions.  Maybe this is why correctives are so messy and difficult to count?  All the layers of derivatives unraveling...of course, who really knows.


----------



## wavepicker (29 July 2007)

Kennas,

human progress is forever "upward", ULTIMATELY. But there will be corrections along the way. That's the way it's always been and will be. There is nothing new under the sun.

ASG

Dunno, if the corrections are complex to count these days. I suppose some are and some are not. Certainly in the very liquid markets we still see some very textbook patterns all the time. What is obvious however is that various patterns repeat(even from many years ago), and as such this does show evidence of some type of order. 
Take the pattern of the last high int he DJIA for example, there are so many examples of the is pattern thoughout history in many markets(let alone examples on this forum in various threads on stocks and other intruments)

Cheers


----------



## theasxgorilla (4 August 2007)

Plunge Protection Team either not active or struggling early on today:


----------



## Uncle Festivus (4 August 2007)

theasxgorilla said:


> Plunge Protection Team either not active or struggling early on today:




No, just waiting till the last half hour as per last coupla days, as there are a few more holes opening up that they need to put their fingers in to plug the leaks eg buying the $US again, and supressing the gold price no doubt. Geez, those boys will be busy!


----------



## dubiousinfo (4 August 2007)

Looks like the PPT left early for the weekend


----------



## noirua (4 August 2007)

Charts are looking increasingly wobbly after the 288 point fall on the Dow on Friday. Markets hate worry and the US sub-prime crisis appears to be worsening. The UK property market is now looking increasingly shakey as falsed sale of houses rose 30% last month and low priced mortgage agreements are about to end very shortly. 

Increased selling of stocks, after the recent run up, may take markets back to 2007 lows.


----------



## theasxgorilla (4 August 2007)

dubiousinfo said:


> Looks like the PPT left early for the weekend




Hahaha, your not joking...hello Monday morning on the ASX.


----------



## Sean K (4 August 2007)

theasxgorilla said:


> Hahaha, your not joking...hello Monday morning on the ASX.



Bought shorts back and bought a long on Thur/Fri.   Was gold though, which went UP! Sorry Bean. Perhaps I'll be safe. ish.


----------



## theasxgorilla (4 August 2007)

kennas said:


> Bought shorts back and bought a long on Thur/Fri.   Was gold though, which went UP! Sorry Bean. Perhaps I'll be safe. ish.




Its a tug of war.  Even when the market is down some stocks are up, and vice versa.  I hold Gold and Oil, which by rights should be doing well...but sentiment is stronger than sense right now, it would seem.


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## dubiousinfo (4 August 2007)

I unwound the last of my shorts on friday.  Another oustanding decision.  

Looks like I'll be giving back what ever profit I made last week.


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## theasxgorilla (7 August 2007)

Sightings of Ben in chopper hovering over The Street already?


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## wayneL (7 August 2007)

theasxgorilla said:


> Sightings of Ben in chopper hovering over The Street already?



I was thinking the same thing G.


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## Magdoran (7 August 2007)

wayneL said:


> I was thinking the same thing G.



Stop it!!!  You’re killing me!

Ha-hahahahha-haha that is so funny, especially after that thread on Cramer’s crazy outburst!


Mag


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## theasxgorilla (7 August 2007)

Magdoran said:


> Stop it!!!  You’re killing me!




I know, I don't think I can wait 'til Christmas to get my Ben Bernake action figure.


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## wayneL (8 August 2007)

Uncle Ben proves he has at least on ball. I wonder if he'll ever grow another one? 

Market was expecting a drop... muppets!


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## wayneL (8 August 2007)

wayneL said:


> Uncle Ben proves he has at least on ball. I wonder if he'll ever grow another one?
> 
> Market was expecting a drop... muppets!




Bundles of cash seen parachuting in downtown Manhattan.

Sus.... & Amazing.


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## Sean K (9 August 2007)

Crash over? 



> 0720 [Dow Jones] WALL STREET: Stocks surge after trending higher most of session, overcoming brief late-day move into red, as positive results drive Cisco and Priceline; "It looks like investors are much more comfortable with the direction of the economy," says Jack Ablin at Harris Private Bank. "Equity investors believe that this is a short-term liquidity imbalance more than a problem with the markets or the economy." Network equipment maker Cisco Systems gains 6.6% after it reports 25% rise in 4Q earnings, boosting other tech shares; online travel-services firm Priceline.com adds 22.2% as its 2Q profits nearly tripled. Toll Brothers adds 6% as investors found positive signs in its 3Q result despite home-building revenue falling 21%; other homebuilders also gained, with KB Home up 8.8%, D.R. Horton advancing 6.9% and Pulte Homes adding 7.2%. Shares in investment banks rise as S&P expressed confidence banks will remain profitable despite recent market turmoil; Lehman Brothers adds 6.7%, Goldman Sachs rises 1.1%, Morgan Stanley gains 1.7%, and Bear Stearns advances 3.6%. Polo Ralph Lauren falls 12% as its 1Q earnings came in below analysts' estimates; Internet content provider InfoSpace drops 10% in after-hours trading as its 2Q earnings miss Wall Street's view. Dow closed up 1.1%, Nasdaq +2%, Philly Semicons +2.4%. (SRO)


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## billhill (9 August 2007)

kennas said:
			
		

> Crash over?




Don't think so kennas. unfortunately.



> BNP Paribas SA, France's biggest bank, halted withdrawals from three investment funds because it can't ``fairly'' value their holdings, as concern over U.S. subprime mortgage losses roils credit markets.




http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601087&sid=ayOiMpIOavzw&refer=home

as i post this both the dax and ftse are significantly lower.
Probably on the back of this. I thought it was too early for this subprime thing to have finished. Mind you the US markets reaction tonight will obviously be key.


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## CanOz (9 August 2007)

billhill said:


> Don't think so kennas. unfortunately.
> 
> 
> 
> ...




hmmm, this might be what was just dragging the Hang Seng down too???

Cheers,


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## theasxgorilla (10 August 2007)

The comforting thud thud thud of BB in his chopper nowhere to be heard...and so it continues...


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## wayneL (10 August 2007)

theasxgorilla said:


> The comforting thud thud thud of BB in his chopper nowhere to be heard...and so it continues...



Thud thud thud replaced by

THUD!


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## Kauri (10 August 2007)

Quite a few choppers in the air overnight!!!!


*



LONDON (MarketWatch) - Some of the world's biggest central banks stepped in to assuage fears of a credit-market crunch Thursday, pumping billions of dollars into volatile markets in an effort to boost liquidity.
The European Central Bank loaned 49 firms a total of nearly 95 billion euros ($131 billion) -- the most it has ever provided -- after rising worries about spillover from difficulties in the U.S. subprime mortgage market left banks uneasy regarding lending to each other. 
Across the Atlantic, the Federal Reserve carried out a $12 billion one-day repurchase agreement, on top of an earlier $12 billion 14-day repo. 
Later Thursday, the Bank of Canada said it also provide liquidity "to support the stability of the Canadian financial system and the continued functioning of financial markets
		
Click to expand...


*


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## wayneL (10 August 2007)

Kauri said:


> Quite a few choppers in the air overnight!!!!
> 
> *
> 
> ...



Muppets!!!!!!

So what they're doing is what undermined the whole financial system in the first place.

Absolute muppets!!!!!!


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## CanOz (10 August 2007)

wayneL said:


> Muppets!!!!!!
> 
> So what they're doing is what undermined the whole financial system in the first place.
> 
> Absolute muppets!!!!!!




Is money safe in the bank anymore?


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## Kauri (10 August 2007)

wayneL said:


> Muppets!!!!!!
> 
> So what they're doing is what undermined the whole financial system in the first place.
> 
> Absolute muppets!!!!!!




   Yep, I think it will have about as much success as a one armed paper-hanger....


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## explod (10 August 2007)

CanOz said:


> Is money safe in the bank anymore?




Nope, that is why gold will come to the fore later on.   It will be noted overnight that the US dollar rallied somewhat.   This is a flight into dollars as it has been the world currency for so long.   However the US dollar is in a five year down trend and this will continue so this flight will stop when it is realised that this is a losing bet(if you like) also, and has done that pretty much for that period.

The aspect to think about is that gold moves counter to the US dollar index, it is where the money will flow when the full penny drops.

Big picture, the smart money will create rallies for their mates and themselves to get out.  As you know a falling or rising market does it in stages.  It is not the time to panic, stay cool and pick you exit over time(but I will being doing it fairly soon)


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## noirua (10 August 2007)

Individual companies with lots of cash will be fine in this "credit crunch" era that looks like hanging around for a while. Those that are a bit late into cash raising are in trouble now.

The Dow may well head back to the 12,500  peak that was achieved in 2006. If it does, the charts may indicate a long flat period as the US panics and lowers rates. The US Dollar, that others have noted, may see a sharp rise along with US fixed interest bonds


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## Magdoran (10 August 2007)

wayneL said:


> Thud thud thud replaced by
> 
> THUD!



You are too funny!  This is a classic Wayne!


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## TjamesX (10 August 2007)

wayneL said:


> Muppets!!!!!!
> 
> So what they're doing is what undermined the whole financial system in the first place.
> 
> Absolute muppets!!!!!!




It seems to me they are trying to engineer an (attempted) orderly slowing of global credit expansion.....

What they take away with one hand (global stepping up of fed rates)....

They give back with the other.....



> LONDON (MarketWatch) - Some of the world's biggest central banks stepped in to assuage fears of a credit-market crunch Thursday, pumping billions of dollars into volatile markets in an effort to boost liquidity.
> The European Central Bank loaned 49 firms a total of nearly 95 billion euros ($131 billion) -- the most it has ever provided -- after rising worries about spillover from difficulties in the U.S. subprime mortgage market left banks uneasy regarding lending to each other.
> Across the Atlantic, the Federal Reserve carried out a $12 billion one-day repurchase agreement, on top of an earlier $12 billion 14-day repo.
> Later Thursday, the Bank of Canada said it also provide liquidity "to support the stability of the Canadian financial system and the continued functioning of financial markets




The private debt markets are trying to raise rates and contract credit as investors price back in risk..... while at the same time central banks are trying to make sure it happens in an orderly way

People pointing to M3 and money expansion going at double digit rates have to realise that the credit system NEEDS to do this just to support current asset prices going forward. The central banks know this.....

house prices could stay stagnant for the next 5 years and credit expansion would probably still be needed at double digit rates to support it.... why... because the people entering the market and buying HAVE NO CASH

TJ


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## Pommiegranite (10 August 2007)

I was wondering when this might be brought up:

Fed fund futures point to emergency Fed rate cut





By Steve Gelsi
Last Update: 7:56 AM ET Aug 10, 2007




NEW YORK (MarketWatch) -- Fed fund future prices suggest the U.S. Federal Reserve will be forced to do an emergency inter-meeting rate cut within the next week, Merrill Lynch analyst Joseph B. Shatz said in a note to clients late Thursday. Fed Funds futures appear to be pricing in a substantial risk that the Fed may make the move after a series of recent events, including a move by the European Central Bank to inject $130 billion into banks. On Friday, the European Central Bank injected 61 billion euros ($84 billion) in a tender auction.


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## theasxgorilla (11 August 2007)

Those invisible hands of the Plunge Protection Team are at it early...hoping to sort things out enough so they can take a long lunch down the pub:


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## wayneL (11 August 2007)

I hear the Fed's been spending up over the last few days.


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## theasxgorilla (11 August 2007)

Those choppers look a bit on the cheap side...wonder if they're locally produced or offshored?  This credit squeeze is really starting to bite


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## wayneL (11 August 2007)

theasxgorilla said:


> Those choppers look a bit on the cheap side...wonder if they're locally produced or offshored?  This credit squeeze is really starting to bite



It was a rush order!


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## theasxgorilla (11 August 2007)

There's no longer any T (team) in PPT...its just PP, or more affectionately, BB.  Spare the reserves, BB has been spotted single handedly supporting prices, among other things:


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## doctorj (11 August 2007)

You must be loving this wayne!  I gotta ask, you've been talking up exactly this for some time now.  Have you profited from being prepared?  Is your trading going to plan so far?


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## Sean K (11 August 2007)

Is it a crash yet? I don't think so. I'm not giving out any pats on the back till I see CRASH! Not just a nice healthy correction. 

I'm going back to my cave now with the other muppets.... :hide:


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## doctorj (11 August 2007)

Fair enough, though after doing what I did this morning, I feel a little better to see things unfolding as they are, so I'm happy to join wayne in his rain dancing for the time being.


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## wayneL (11 August 2007)

doctorj said:


> You must be loving this wayne!  I gotta ask, you've been talking up exactly this for some time now.  Have you profited from being prepared?  Is your trading going to plan so far?



I diversified into commod futures precisely to somewhat avoid this sort of thing being too big a deal.

My _modus operandi_ in extreme volatility situations like this is to daytrade it. This is what I've always done in uncertain times in the stock market... times like this, earnings season in stocks etc. It has always served me well.

Straight out shorts held overnight is too dangerous IMO because of the Fed interference. 

But yes, the volatility is nice to trade on a daytrade basis.

For instance the market internals said to go *long* from about 11AM NYT, (TICK divergence, TRIN change of trend) with the first exit signal a moment a go (TICK extreme @ 12:22PM). The whole move was 200 Dow points which is $1,000 per YM contract in just over an hour.

Nice work when you can get it.


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## Sean K (11 August 2007)

I do believe that the conditions for this correction (crash ) may be different than previous ones, but I wonder if that is only because we are inside it at the moment and have forgotten the previous ones? :dunno:

This movement looks a little steeper than previous ones, but if the long term bull is intact, then perhaps we'll find support around the 200 d ma, as we have for the past 3 years. 

Or, Wayne is right, and the muppets have cocked up the financial system and the greedy consuming human has spoiled the party!


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## chops_a_must (11 August 2007)

wayneL said:


> But yes, the volatility is nice to trade on a daytrade basis.
> 
> For instance the market internals said to go *long* from about 11AM NYT, (TICK divergence, TRIN change of trend) with the first exit signal a moment a go (TICK extreme @ 12:22PM). The whole move was 200 Dow points which is $1,000 per YM contract in just over an hour.
> 
> Nice work when you can get it.



Yep, it's this volatility that has me salivating about eventually becoming a day trader. I have a long way to go in just hanging around and learning, but are there any tips to speeding it up Wayne?

Plus at the moment, the confirmation of correct direction of trades is very fast... so the R/R is compounded on these already enormous swings. There are going to be many many new multi millionaires being made in this short period...


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## theasxgorilla (11 August 2007)

Its nasty to be in the market at the moment (and holding over night) due to the volatility.  But I agree that in the context of the last few years AND other real bear markets or price collapses this is still mild.  I dare say it won't be long for us to know either way whether this is more or less of the same.


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## chops_a_must (11 August 2007)

wayneL said:


> I diversified into commod futures precisely to somewhat avoid this sort of thing being too big a deal.



And P.S., that man of yours... despite both of our opinions, appears to be correct as metals are looking strong. Perhaps a long awaited decoupling between materials and financials that I have been calling on for ages may happen...

P.P.S. wouldn't China be laughing its box off right now? After months of us telling them they have a bubble and are heading for catastrophe etc. we are the ones experiencing/ looking at exactly that.


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## Sean K (11 August 2007)

theasxgorilla said:


> Its nasty to be in the market at the moment (and holding over night) due to the volatility.  But I agree that in the context of the last few years AND other real bear markets or price collapses this is still mild.  I dare say it won't be long for us to know either way whether this is more or less of the same.



Yes, the question is whether the financial systems can sort this out or not. Wayne is saying no, I guess.  I have no idea.


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## wayneL (11 August 2007)

chops_a_must said:


> Yep, it's this volatility that has me salivating about eventually becoming a day trader. I have a long way to go in just hanging around and learning, but are there any tips to speeding it up Wayne?



The most honest and best source of info on daydrading (and swingtrading) in my opinion is John Carter (USA centric of course)

His book is excellent http://www.moneybags.com.au/default.asp?d=0&t=1&id=5058&c=0&a=74

and runs a website which I've mentioned here before www.tradethemarkets.com Hellishly expensive to subscribe, but if serious should be considered. (disclaimer, have not subscribed myself) They also have a free daily video they send out which you can sign up for.

I reckon the book is a must read.

(all the usual disclaimers, no connection to them etc.)

Good luck


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## wayneL (11 August 2007)

kennas said:


> Yes, the question is whether the financial systems can sort this out or not. Wayne is saying no, I guess.  I have no idea.



They'll sort it out, but it's like an athlete who has allowed themself to become obese. Lot's of hard work, pain, and going without to get back to peak, meanwhile the challengers (China et al) are fightin' weight and ready to rumble.

A tough challenge ahead.


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## chops_a_must (11 August 2007)

wayneL said:


> The most honest and best source of info on daydrading (and swingtrading) in my opinion is John Carter (USA centric of course)
> 
> His book is excellent http://www.moneybags.com.au/default.asp?d=0&t=1&id=5058&c=0&a=74
> 
> ...




Funnily enough... I'm 3/4 of the way through that book...

But I've used it for strategies over all time frames. And yes, it is a great book.

I will bother more people when the markets aren't open.

Thanks for the speedy response.

Cheers,
Chops.


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## nomore4s (15 August 2007)

I have a question for the fundamentalists.

Now I don't want to start an arguement between the FA's & TA's, I'm just curious about a few things.

During this correction I have heard on numerous occasions "the fundamentals haven't changed".
Now from my very limited understanding, surely the fundamentals have changed? There's been a tightening of credit & liquidity problems already which could get worse, the sub prime issue which "should be contained" has caused problems with hedge funds etc, and no one really knows just how deep this really runs, ie hedge funds probably haven't processed all the redemptions from people trying to exit these funds(due to the problems in the markets atm), so could this cause more liquidity problems and panic in the markets when these funds start freezing funds? Surely it will be months before we know the full extent of the damage done?

My question is how do you know the fundamentals have or haven't changed? Surely by the time we (people like me who don't have access to some of the more detailed info - would mean nothing to me anyway) know for sure, it'll be too late won't it?

I know some of these views are over simplified, but I would like to know when a fundamentalist would start to realise things are/have changed?

Thanks in advance for any replies, and no arguing between the FA's and TA's:


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## Ken (15 August 2007)

If the media didn't report these things, we as investors would be none the wiser.

It is just another excuse for the market having a correction.

They could be saying that China imported less iron ore, or oil prices will drop come December.

Whatever it is, there are reactions.

The fear is from seeing it in the media.

Stocks are not allowed to fall for no reason.


I am sure there have been credit problems before. 

There will be other issues that come up in the future, but if the market keeps going up who wants to hear about them...

When the market is going full steam ahead, that is when you have brokers pusing price targets.. what happens when they get there??? They falll down.... and then something comes up like we have today...

If you fast forward 6 months where will we be? I would guess gearing up for another run.

This sell down will create a prolonged buying opportunity in my opinion.


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## Uncle Festivus (19 August 2007)

Newsflash: Hank Paulson & Ben Bernanke have officially swapped positions. Reports say Paulson is now closer to a Rock & Bernanke is now closer to a Hard Place. Both say there is still very little room to move.


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## krisbarry (19 August 2007)

nomore4s said:


> My question is how do you know the fundamentals have or haven't changed? Surely by the time we (people like me who don't have access to some of the more detailed info - would mean nothing to me anyway) know for sure, it'll be too late won't it?
> :




The trick to changing fundamentals is governed by which stock market discussion board you frequent

Posters on hotcopper have the 3 second rule, much like a goldfish It takes them 3 seconds to turn bearish, from being bullish.

I have noticed on ASF its seems like a few days to a week

As for TA and FA I wouldn't have a clue, just adding some comical relief  Best leave the TA and FA debate up to the big boys!


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## tech/a (19 August 2007)

Its not about the fundumentals of the market.

Its all about the *DRIVERS *of the market,Sub prime fears and tightening of credit are all real and certainly driving the market.

Everything else is just dandy!


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## Kauri (19 August 2007)

Stop_the_clock said:


> The trick to changing fundamentals is governed by which stock market discussion board you frequent
> 
> *Posters on hotcopper* have the 3 second rule, much like a goldfish It takes them 3 seconds to turn bearish, from being bullish.
> 
> ...




   HotCopper... interesting two page spread in the Financial Review this weekend..... despite the ownership/moderation of the site has been well hidden, after 3 years the AFR has tracked it down.. through numerous overseas companies, the address of one is actually for a demolished building in Singapore. The final owners, in Perth it seems, are associated with... quoted from the article in the Fin Review... 







> "a sting of big margin traders, as well as investment bankers who have been regular associates of Hans Rudi Moser. Moser is the Swiss banker famous not only for his investments with the "Balcatta Boys" in some of the Wests wildest share plays, but also having authority to operate Sydney businessman Trevor Kennedys Swiss bank account."



  As I mentioned a couple of days back, it seems the _Blodgett and Grubman followers_ of the dotcom boom era are alive and well, just operating in a different way!!!
  Got to be a warning for HC followers there... and I don't for a moment doubt, despite the top class moderation and overall integrity of SSF, that they have posted here as well.... never has *DYOR* been more relevant!!!
   Cheers from a hungover
.......Kauri


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