# The October Crash Meme (2009)



## wayneL (8 July 2009)

There is a narrative going around the traps from those still bearish that cometh October, a great tribulation will descend upon the great unwashed bulls... Armageddon... again. :

Here is one typical view:



Thoughts?


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## nunthewiser (8 July 2009)

if its within my 4 month time limit i stated in all ords thread im all for it


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## Uncle Festivus (8 July 2009)

If US earnings dissapoint ie are "worse-than-expected", and with the indexs vulnerable where they are now, a final capitulation to new lows is feasible? Why wait for October though?


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## wayneL (8 July 2009)

Uncle Festivus said:


> If US earnings dissapoint ie are "worse-than-expected", and with the indexs vulnerable where they are now, a final capitulation to new lows is feasible? *Why wait for October though?*




Just get them to wait till after July 17 (option expiry) :


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## Trembling Hand (8 July 2009)

Nah nah nah...


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## Gundini (8 July 2009)

wayneL said:


> Thoughts?




While they may be right, it seems they are struggling to get a handle on the markets.... Doing their best to keep a job it seems to me... And guess what?

Their fired!


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## theasxgorilla (9 July 2009)

Trembling Hand said:


> Nah nah nah...




Classic TH... I knew it wasn't rhetoric, them shoots are real I tell ya!  Albeit they look like tulips... deja vu


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## theasxgorilla (9 July 2009)

wayneL said:


> Thoughts?




As w@nky as it sounds, more time needs to pass in order to build potential for another violent move, so yeah, October sounds more feasible than tomorrow.

But it matches my current leaning toward the scenario that these green shoots are wave-B material... C still to come.


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## Aussiejeff (9 July 2009)

theasxgorilla said:


> As w@nky as it sounds, more time needs to pass in order to build potential for another violent move, so yeah, October sounds more feasible than tomorrow.
> 
> But it matches my current leaning toward the scenario that *these green shoots are wave-B material... C still to come*.




With the sheer volume of uber-optimistic forecasts flooding out from the ivory towers of bailed out banks and the glittering castles of their political brethren, one could be excused for thinking that many of them have started smoking some of those carefully cultivated "green shoots". Variety "C" you say??

In my day, it was just called "grass"....


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## noirua (9 July 2009)

The Dow Jones Industrial appears to be treading water and remains way off 2007 levels. A long way to go in this bear market in Europe and the Americas, me thinks.

I'm going for a strong pull out of this bear market in October, however, October 2012 to October 2014. Still looking for a boom period as far out as 2016 - 2018.

Europe and America will need to increase taxes at some stage.  The UK is due to raise purchasing tax (V.A.T), from 15% to 17.5% at the end of the year.  No chance of a pull out of recession in 2009 or 2010, imho.


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## jbocker (30 September 2009)

I was going to start a new thread about October and noticed this one, so I will just post here.

October, I hear has a bad reputation,  so should I be n.. n.. nervous?

Interested to know what people think will be the case, since it will be October tomorrow.  I had read that the dow could be between 1880 to 3800 after another crash but that was October *2010*.

For me I think it will be up (October 2009).


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## Knobby22 (30 September 2009)

All the uberbears are getting desperate and are basing the crash on hope.

I would expect a correction at some stage but the news coming in is still surprising (to me) on the upside. I now think the DOW has to be above 10,000for something to happen. Maybe April next year is a better time.


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## wayneL (30 September 2009)

Septmeber is statistically the worst month and any October crash is telegraphed in Sept.

It won't be this October. 

I just want it (the sp500) to consolidate at ~1060 so I can collect a truly obscene amount of option premium.


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## matty2.0 (30 September 2009)

"We are going to have a crash in October because that's when crashes happen. I can't explain why."


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## Awesomandy (30 September 2009)

While I haven't been involved in the markets for very long, do we get questions every year in late September aboout a potential crash?


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## ducati916 (30 September 2009)

Here's the chart...

http://leduc998.wordpress.com/2009/08/13/septembers-coming-baby/#respond

jog on
duc


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## nunthewiser (30 September 2009)

ducati916 said:


> Here's the chart...
> 
> http://leduc998.wordpress.com/2009/08/13/septembers-coming-baby/#respond
> 
> ...




you got one that includes a bit more history ? 100years?


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## Ato (30 September 2009)

theasxgorilla said:


> Classic TH... I knew it wasn't rhetoric, them shoots are real I tell ya!  Albeit they look like tulips... deja vu




I thought they looked like Afghani poppies


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## joeyr46 (30 September 2009)

nunthewiser said:


> you got one that includes a bit more history ? 100years?




Try oct 24th crash of1909 then oct 24th crash of 1929 then oct (not sure of date) crash of 1987 but 2007 missed out although it went down a bit then oct 2008 between 2nd and 10th down nearly 3000 points on Dow but its a bit like the xmas rally sometimes it works sometimes not


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## jbocker (2 October 2009)

jbocker said:


> I was going to start a new thread about October and noticed this one, so I will just post here.
> 
> October, I hear has a bad reputation,  so should I be n.. n.. nervous?
> 
> ...




Yeah Right I say its going to be up and what happens day 1 - Dow down 203pts. Worst in 3 months.
Yeah Let me be the judge.......NOT!!


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## Uncle Festivus (2 October 2009)

Are we all CITing down?? The delayed convergence of reality...



> NEW YORK (Reuters) - If struggling U.S. commercial lender CIT Group Inc were to collapse it would be a "drastic mistake" as the small businesses that rely on it would have few alternate sources of funding, turnaround experts said at the Reuters Restructuring Summit this week.
> 
> "I have a great fear of the collapse of CIT and that people don't understand the ramifications of what that can be," Lynn Tilton, chief executive of distressed investment firm Patriarch Partners said, adding she believed any collapse would result in millions of job losses at smaller U.S. companies.
> 
> "I think it would be a very, very drastic mistake in this country to allow CIT to go under," Tilton said.





> The Vital Role of CIT
> Over 1,000,000 business customers depend on CIT to provide the financing they need to run their businesses. And for more than 100 years, CIT has remained committed to the lending needs of the small and middle market – providing needed capital to markets that other larger and smaller financial institutions often don’t.
> The current financial challenges in the market haven’t wavered our commitment to the businesses that count on us. To get a sense of the vital role CIT plays to small and middle-market businesses throughout the US, let’s look at the role it plays in two important sectors at the center of the current credit crisis.
> *The importance of CIT to the retail industry*
> ...


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## Temjin (2 October 2009)

Uncle Festivus said:


> Are we all CITing down?? The delayed convergence of reality...




http://market-ticker.denninger.net/archives/1477-CITing-The-Bowl.html



> Sept. 30 (Bloomberg) -- CIT Group Inc., the commercial lender that has said it may be forced to file for bankruptcy, is considering an offer of financing from Citigroup Inc. and Barclays Capital, people familiar with the situation said.
> 
> The 101-year-old company’s bondholders are also seeking to provide about $2 billion in loans as a restructuring deadline approaches tomorrow, said the people, who declined to be identified because the negotiations are private. New York-based CIT may choose other options, the people said.
> 
> ...




CIT is technically insolvent anyway. The reality would be harsh.


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## Uncle Festivus (15 October 2009)

RIP thread 

The Fed = 1, bears = 0

The NYSE had these caps made for today


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## jonnycage (15 October 2009)

yep still waiting .....  glad i didnt cash out

j c


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## Timmy (15 October 2009)

Uncle Festivus said:


> The NYSE had these caps made for today




Uncle F. - the NYSE had these caps made AGAIN for today .... think this is the 4th time (?) the DOW has gone through 10,000.  If the index if rejigged often enough there should be a few more round turns.  Keep those caps.


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## Dowdy (15 October 2009)

What type of crash are we talking about....

The US dollar or the stock market?


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## greggles (29 September 2021)

China's property market is teetering on the edge, and the country is experiencing an energy crisis. The US is playing chicken with the global economy as it hurtles towards the cliff edge over the debt ceiling. Republicans are saying they won't play ball as they try and shut down Biden's spending spree.

Are we heading for another October to remember?


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## Sean K (29 September 2021)

greggles said:


> Are we heading for another October to remember?




I hope so. I'm 80% cash.


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## greggles (29 September 2021)

kennas said:


> I hope so. I'm 80% cash.




Nobody can say we weren't warned this time. The bells have been ringing for some time. People have been pushing all their saved lockdown income into real estate and financial markets, ignoring the economic reality facing the world in the wake of COVID-19. There will be a recovery in 20222 and beyond, but not until markets are shaken out by a big correction.


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