# Trading The SPI - Gann Techniques



## wayneL (26 October 2006)

This thread is for SPI trading discussion using any sort of *Gann* techniques.

Some ground rules.

No hindsite trades.

No solicitation of education services.

The posting of dollar sums of profit or loss is discouraged.

Do not post information or discussion on technique if you are not prepared to answer questions. Preservation of intellectual property is fine, but please, no teasers. This will be viewed as backdoor solicitation.

DO ask questions and partake in discussions for mutual benefit 

DO respect peoples time and opinion.

Live calls of trades would be much better in the chatroom due to the inevitable time lag with the forum, and we would encourage people to post live trades there.

Thankyou

OK that all the stern moderator stuff out of the way.

Please enjoy.


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## yogi-in-oz (31 January 2007)

Hi folks,

You will remember, for some months we have been
calling for XJO to go beserk in Feb 2007. Well, you 
will be glad to know, that nothing has changed !~!

So far, XJO has been trading to the script, but the
best is yet to come ... for, if you think our XJO has
been strong, just wait a couple of weeks for the 
grand finale in this rally !~!

Whilst there is an underlying negative cycle,
that will bring on long-term changes, Feb 2007
may bring us, some spectacular short-term gains.

So, looking at XJO time cycles for February 2007:

05-06022007 ... minor and positive light on XJO

08022007 ... minor aspect, but positive too

09022007 ... negative close ???

12022007 ... serious rally may get started

15-21022007 ... XJO goes into the stratosphere?

20022007 ... XJO = 1440 days out from 13032003 low !~!

24022007 ... XJO = 1444 days out from 13032003 low ...
                              1444 = natural square of 38 ..... 

07032007 ... 2 cycles here ... a NEGATIVE
spotlight on XJO, possibly partly due to
finances (interest rates?) or a currency rise ?

02042007 and 11042007 may also be interesting
dates for XJO, in April 2007.

happy days

yogi

P.S. ..... and the best part being ... we get to see
            an uninhibited repeat of February madness,
            yet again, from 10-18 October 2007 ... !~! 



=====


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## Bronte (31 January 2007)

Thank you for posting this information yogi-in-oz  
It is very much appreciated


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## Magdoran (1 February 2007)

yogi-in-oz said:
			
		

> Hi folks,
> 
> You will remember, for some months we have been
> calling for XJO to go beserk in Feb 2007. Well, you
> ...



Hello Yogi,


Interestingly the cycles I come up with line up with yours Yogi: 24 February 2007 may be a significant date for the XAO, with 06 February 2007 as a minor increment, and 01 April 2007 as a major increment.  I made mention of the 24th on the Zinc thread a week or so ago…

Essentially I’d expect a high on the 24th Feb if the time cycle I see is correct, (but if this is exceeded, may see a blow off into 01 April for a high).  So the actual high may be + or – 1 trading day from 23 Feb or 26 Feb (22 – 27), but would expect the high on either the Friday or the Monday.

If this cycle is wrong, the alternative is 12 Feb and 20 March.  Oddly enough 12 Feb lines up with your date too Yogi.  Of course both cycles may be running concurrently…  If the 24th is a low, I’d expect a possible high on 01 April.

How it plays out will depend on the price action – could be a blow off into 24 Feb or 01 April, or could be a distribution pattern that ends in a false break.  If the 24th Feb is a low (or possibly a high), could see a blow off into 01 April from there, but suspect this might be a lower high or a low… 

I certainly think that a strong move up to exhaust the move around the 15-21 Feb sounds quite plausible to me given that the market plays out the way it seems to be going.

Additionally, the Elliott Wave count seems to confirm this being a wave 5 of 5 of 3, (possibly a major end to a wave 3 in the longer term pattern).  Could see 4800 or more if a major correction gets underway.

Of course this could just be an “ABC” then continue bullishly.

It will be interesting to see this in action.  It is possible though from the 06 Feb onwards that a high comes in before the 24th is reached since this kind of cycle can exhaust prematurely…

It is interesting to see some very close correlation in our dates Yogi.  I think you may be right, February will be an interesting month.  What is noteworthy too is that we are arriving at very similar dates coming from different schools.


Regards


Magdoran


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## Magdoran (6 February 2007)

The other dates I neglected to include was the minor 14 March... and the majors - 13 April... and the 31 May...

More gobbledygook for those not into time cycles... but as we near these, I’ll try to flesh out what the pattern of trend may be indicating.


Mag


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## Jadefox (10 February 2007)

Intersesting posts - look forward to updates.


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## Magdoran (28 February 2007)

Current thinking for key dates now that the Feb 24 high is in… (All 2007 dates).



Crude oil – next key date 19 March (I was projecting this to hit $68.77 on that day, but may have to revise this).

DAX – Major dates:  10 March, 15 April (favourite for a top), 21 May; Minor date:  28 March.

NASDAQ – Major dates:  15 March (top?), 02 May, Minor:  09 March.

DOW – Major dates:  15 March (Top?), 27 March.

Gold - Major dates: 31 March, 12 April.


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## yogi-in-oz (28 February 2007)

yogi-in-oz said:
			
		

> Hi folks,
> 
> You will remember, for some months we have been
> calling for XJO to go beserk in Feb 2007. Well, you
> ...






Hi Mag,

Yet again, it seems that time cycle analysis gave us adequate
warning of the highs ..... 

happy trading

  yogi


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## professor_frink (28 February 2007)

yogi-in-oz said:
			
		

> Hi Mag,
> 
> Yet again, it seems that time cycle analysis gave us adequate
> warning of the highs .....
> ...



Yogi, Mag,
Excellent calls. Hope you both made a bundle


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## Magdoran (28 February 2007)

yogi-in-oz said:
			
		

> Hi Mag,
> 
> Yet again, it seems that time cycle analysis gave us adequate
> warning of the highs .....
> ...



Yes Yogi,


This just illustrates the strength of Gann timing techniques if you know what you are doing, doesn’t it?

It was interesting that our times lined up.  Freaky really since we’re using interpretations from opposite ends of the Gann spectrum, but share the core concepts…

Great call Yogi, well done.


Regards


Magdoran


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## Magdoran (28 February 2007)

professor_frink said:
			
		

> Yogi, Mag,
> Excellent calls. Hope you both made a bundle



Thanks Professor,


Opening the champagne now… but there is still more to come… this game has only just begun.


Regards


Magdoran


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## professor_frink (28 February 2007)

Magdoran said:
			
		

> Thanks Professor,
> 
> 
> Opening the champagne now… but there is still more to come… this game has only just begun.
> ...



Just make sure you behave yourself Mag  :alcohol:


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## Magdoran (28 February 2007)

professor_frink said:
			
		

> Just make sure you behave yourself Mag  :alcohol:



Me, behave?  Never@!!!

Actually it’s way too early for drinking, and there is a lot to do…

Still have to review the futures, that’s my chore now…

But thanks for the sentiment…


Mag


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## Sean K (28 February 2007)

yogi-in-oz said:
			
		

> Hi Mag,
> 
> Yet again, it seems that time cycle analysis gave us adequate
> warning of the highs .....
> ...



Hang on, aren't we still in February?   

I only see highs been spoken about in February there. Where's the crash? Pretty convenient turning predictions about 'stratospheric' gains into a top... Hhhmmm, not convinced really Yogi. Perhaps I'm reading it wrong.


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## yogi-in-oz (2 March 2007)

Hi Kennas,

You may not be convinced ... but, some of us have been around long 
enough to recognise a blow-off top, when it comes along ..... 

..... so, we hope you are out by Monday Kennas, as 
we will likely see more blood spilt, then ... !~!

(... see post above for more details)

happy days

 yogi


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## yogi-in-oz (2 March 2007)

yogi-in-oz said:
			
		

> Hi folks,
> 
> You will remember, for some months we have been
> calling for XJO to go beserk in Feb 2007. Well, you
> ...





..... as per post above, more XJO bloodshed expected next week,
on WEDNESDAY 07 March 2007, in particular ... to test support 
several times, before a minor positive move, expected around the
March equinox, on 20022007 .....

..... but, some currencies may be in a positive mode
around 07032007, too ...???

happy days

 yogi

l


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## Magdoran (4 March 2007)

yogi-in-oz said:
			
		

> ..... as per post above, more XJO bloodshed expected next week,
> on WEDNESDAY 07 March 2007, in particular ... to test support
> several times, before a minor positive move, expected around the
> March equinox, on 20022007 .....
> ...



Hey, Yogi,


Do you have a time/price projection currently for the low of this bearish phase in the XAO?

Also, have you done much work on commodities like Gold, Oil and the metals recently?

I’d be interested in comparing notes if you’d like to, since some of the cycles I’m seeing are about as clear cut a vibration as I’ve seen in a long time.  Are you seeing something along the same lines too?


Mag


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## hissho (16 March 2007)

hi Yogi and Mag
your Gann approach is just so intriguing!
any update on XJO analysis? or even on US markets?

thanks


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## hissho (20 March 2007)

just to bump this topic...

any updates Yogi and Mag? Thanks!


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## Bronte (22 March 2007)

22nd March
Autumnal Equinox
Big Number High ?

_These dates were discussed in the original 'Trading the SPI' thread_


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## Magdoran (23 March 2007)

hissho said:
			
		

> hi Yogi and Mag
> your Gann approach is just so intriguing!
> any update on XJO analysis? or even on US markets?
> 
> thanks



Hello Hissho,


I have essentially decided to greatly curtail my posting on ASF for a number of reasons.

I received a very unpleasant PM a couple of weeks ago that accused me of plagiarising materials from the net (the implication was that I was merely paraphrasing and copying materials from Bill McLaren’s site and Frank Dilernia’s materials).  I was in essence told I should stop posting on ASF (essentially that the ASF wasn’t big enough for the two of us).

Normally, I wouldn’t let this effect me, and really couldn’t care less what this person thinks.

However, the most upsetting thing to me on a personal note though, was the bizarre and chilling threat by this person to “slit their wrists”, and that I could attend their funeral in Adelaide.  Hey, I have a sense of humour like anyone else, but this was extremely callous given this person has no idea of the pain and emptiness left after a suicide – to those left behind it is often a sharp devastating tragedy that cannot be erased, and lives with you forever.

So, on top of this tirade of sociopathic abuse, wavepicker and I just got sick of all the nonsense from the peon brigade, the clowns misleading people, and the deluge of self promotion.

I find it truly ironic that this person ostensibly stands for free and open discussion, but acts in a way that is contrary to being inclusive, and in fact causes a considerable amount of unrest.  Chest thumping about how good one is, and deriding others unnecessarily I think is antithetical to the spirit and intent of what the ASF was supposed to be about.  In fact it is downright hypocritical.

What irritates me most is that I’m now supposed to drop everything for this sociopath/egotist, and put up all the IP I’ve developed over the years for him to look at – otherwise it’s all “smokes and mirrors”.

Reality:  I called the most probable date of the recent high, well out from the event, then a week out called the most probable index level for the XAO within a point.  

In my style there is no guarantee that any forecast will work, only probabilities which are estimated using a range of methods.  Firstly, I clearly identify the highest probability in my posts first, then balance these with failure criteria.  It’s really simple, but the peon’s label this as an “each way bet”.  This is so obtuse not recognising that with any forecast, you need to identify the criteria for the primary forecast to fail, and what the ramifications are if so.

Hence my comments were very careful to identify caveats where the forecast may have failed, and the possible scenarios that might unfold.  In my style, different aspects have different levels of probability, and the actual pattern that unfolds may require some adjustments along the way (many micro, some macro), since the realm of possibilities is quite large, but the major tipping points can be identified and assigned probabilities. 

I strongly resent being accused of plagiarism, and I resent being characterised as a charlatan.  I have no course to sell (unlike others – what I do is to say what worked for me if others are interested – that’s all, no affiliation).  I do NOT teach Gann methods in any professional capacity (I do sometimes teach in derivatives – specifically options - under licensed organisations – but in financial circles Gann is considered “Voodoo”, so I usually diplomatically avoid motioning it).

If any other person called the XAO top specifically (aside from Yogi’s smiley face in his post), and more importantly the index level, I’d like to see someone demonstrate this, and then demonstrate that I plagiarised it.  Frank Dilernia did not specifically identify a date (+/- 1 trading day), or specifically identify an index level.  He did in fact correctly identify February – March as dangerous for longs, and did correctly forecast wide range days in March. For that matter, so did a lot of commentators.  None that I know of called the date specifically as a high, or the index level.  I did. 

To assert that I plagiarised from Dilernia or McLaren is patently false, and I categorically deny this accusation.

As a result of this ongoing unpleasantness, I have decided to focus my attention on trading and the ongoing development of my trading style.  While I have enjoyed many of the discussions on ASF, and think that there were some really constructive threads and some great people, there are a small minority of spoilers that have dragged the site down to the point I find it hard to be motivated to post anymore.

While I didn’t want to make a big song and dance about this like some prim donnas, (and don’t want to be one – ironically doing this in a way achieves that – I really wish it didn’t), essentially I’ve had enough…

There are some who have PM’d me, and I’m happy to maintain contact in this way for the time being for those who are interested.  I may from time to time post some musings (probably on this thread).

I hope that the discussions in the past have given some of you food for thought, wether we agreed or not, and that the course of the discussions has benefited many of you.  

I wish all of you the best of luck and success.


Yours Faithfully


Magdoran


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## It's Snake Pliskin (23 March 2007)

Hi Magdoran,

I do hope you continue to post as I have found a lot of value in your posts. 
Take care
Snake


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## Bronte (23 March 2007)

It's Snake Pliskin said:
			
		

> Hi Magdoran,
> I do hope you continue to post as I have found a lot of value in your posts.
> Take care
> Snake



We also hope you continue to post Magdoran and would like to thank you for all your previous input. 
We have found plenty of value in your posts.
Take care .


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## Rogue Trading (23 March 2007)

Hi Magdoran,
I too hope you continue to post as I have found your posts of value.
Don't let the idiots get to you.

Regards.
Rogue Trading


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## yogi-in-oz (23 March 2007)

..... just keep posting Magdoran and forget about those idiots,
as they try to bring down anybody who is posting, anything 
like a grain of truth !~!

Always look forward to your comments and analysis, though 
don't always get time to reply these days ..... 

Stick around, buddy ... we need you ... !~!

have a great weekend

    paul


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## hissho (25 March 2007)

Totally agreed---we love you Mag!

Keep posting and just ignore nonsense!


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## coyotte (25 March 2007)

After a couple of brief PMs to Mag, I purchased McLaren's Seminar DVD and book Gann made Easy -- Mag noted if you joined McLaren's service you should understand these first.

I have Aget but noticed that Mag uses Gann Pro --- As I have never bothered to look at the Gann side of Aget and wouldn't know at this stage what to look for, does anyone know if Aget up to the job (McLaren)?

Or is Gann based Software missing the vital points  ? 


Thanks for any replies.


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## Atomic5 (26 March 2007)

Does anyone have any chart views they'd care to offer on as to whether this year will have the same low volume price slump after the end of April, as happened last year? 

I notice that most chart discussions on the ASF dont extend the discussion to past May [when the rally ends(?)] and that this is a typical and historical point of view.


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## >Apocalypto< (2 April 2007)

I am new to Gann just started and amazed with it.

Please let me know what you think of my chart of the aussie200 with Gann line and retractments.

from what i see it is still moving in the 45degree harmony making very healthy under 33% bearish retractments.

if the next retractment fails to get passed 33% and stays on its 45degree price harmony line it is a short side entry.

note it is moving into unstastanible price areas based on Gann fan but due to the very strong rejection at under 33% retraction it is still a valid trend.

am i way off the mark guys?

*** If my angle is not 45 degrees it is due to my IG not saving it right i played around with it but it is screwing up the line when i save it.***


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## coyotte (3 April 2007)

Don't know how accurate this is -- just playing around with Dilernia's methodology -- the "0" & "1" is a McLaren 0,1,2,3 count down from the High --- see how it pans out ? ( XJO cash )


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## It's Snake Pliskin (3 April 2007)

Thanks for the discussion guys. Something interesting.
Cheers


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## >Apocalypto< (3 April 2007)

Went long this morning I saw a pivot point at support of 5900 with price moving in harmony with 45degree line, then it shot up in to the unstable price it sits on now on the Gann fan. So for normal price harmony to be corrected a retractment from current high of 5989 to a healthy 33% - 50% will bring the price back to harmony of 45 degrees so i will wait and see, as long as the price stays above the 45 degree line It is in a bullish zone and higher prices can be expected.

God I hope this is right because Gann is great stuff!

I am also toying with the idea that a price will drop to Ganns 1x2 line of 26.2 degrees and then sit on it and break off it in a 1x1 45 degree.

I see this happen alot on short term time frames, if you add fans on all the low points it dose sit on the 26 degree 1x2 then break off in a 1x1 and then breaks harmony back to 1x2 and then happens again but i may be very wrong. 

Any thoughts or advice very welcomed!


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## Magdoran (5 April 2007)

Thanks for all the people who both openly and in PM’s sent through messages of support, I really appreciated the sentiment, probably more than people realise.

From time to time I may post up forecasts on this thread, but people must realise that forecasts are fallible, and the projections are contingent on a range of criteria, which if invalidated will require a reappraisal of the forecast.  Please also note that this is an ongoing work in progress and that I am pioneering a range of experimental approaches (some with wavepicker), and that these are far from mature at this point.

The format for forecasts in posts will focus on the highest probability projection, and keep the alterative scenarios to a minimum in order to minimise confusion, or the misunderstanding of the purpose of failure critera.  

However in my view, when in real trading situations it is imperative to encompass all the probabilities in this style of analysis in order to identify failure criteria and formulate alternative strategies as the price action unfolds. 


Disclaimer:  These forecasts are for interest value only, and should not be used as the basis on which to make financial decisions.



> *DAX Forecast:*
> 
> Highest probability scenario:
> 
> ...





Ramifications if this forecast is correct:  The pattern in the DAX is the clearest cycle I can identify, and it may well have a bearing on what the other key indexes may be doing.  I do see a correlation in other major stock indexes (particularly in the US – although the 10th of April specifically and up to the 14th April may be of some significance there as well, but I’m still working on this, but there is something happening around this time.  There are several cycles with key increments around this time, and I am going through a rigorous process to try to interpret what this means).




> *PBD3M – LME Lead Futures Forecast:*
> 
> Highest probability scenario:
> 
> ...






Hope this is of interest.


Kind Regards


Magdoran

P.S. This is not a return to full posting, although I will try to respond to PMs.  
P.P.S Once again, thanks for all the support, there are many great people out there, and it was refreshing to receive your well wishes.  Mag.


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## tech/a (5 April 2007)

Good onya Moggie.

Thats the spirit!!


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## It's Snake Pliskin (5 April 2007)

tech/a said:


> Good onya Moggie.
> 
> Thats the spirit!!



Magdoran,
Nice post. Thanks for the effort.
Regards
Snake

tech/a -


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## >Apocalypto< (5 April 2007)

Magdoran,

Great to see your posting again! Dont worry about the haters!

Great stuff, thanks for the post.

They are two things I have never looked at trading yet so I know nothing about those markets but I will watch with interest.

Have a Great Easter Magdoran


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## tech/a (5 April 2007)

> tech/a -




Whats this mean?
If your meaning re Moggie.

Contrary to opinion (Moggies it seems).
I dont have and never have had a problem with Moggie and his posts on ASF.

Back to it Moggie.


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## wayneL (5 April 2007)

Let's show a bit of courtesy. Unless trading the SPI using Gann techniques, or wanting to learn, please refrain from posting about other issues in this thread.

Cheers


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## Magdoran (14 April 2007)

Magdoran said:


> The other dates I neglected to include was the minor 14 March... and the majors - 13 April... and the 31 May...
> 
> More gobbledygook for those not into time cycles... but as we near these, I’ll try to flesh out what the pattern of trend may be indicating.
> 
> ...



Friday the 13th April is a key increment in the XAO cycle as previously indicated in the quote above, but is more significant since I perceive a second cycle running through the XAO which is harmonically related to the first, and both line up with significant time increments on Friday 13th.

This indicates to me the probability of very strong resistance either Friday 13th April, or could even be on Monday 16 April since the XAO index level hasn’t reached either of the resistance levels I was expecting:  6225 or 6252.

Dates from the “multi harmonic cycles” (my theory I’m working on):  Significant date:  31 May.   Major increments:  7 May, 19 May.  Minor increments:  19 April, 01 May.

Judging by the price action today I suspect this may present resistance in time (this may not be terminal to the bullish drive, but may present a counter trend opportunity – there is a minor increment on the 19th April, and this may present support in time if it trades DOWN into this day: +/- 1 trading day).  

I also suspect that if this move eventuates, that it may be a counter trend move down, and once this counter trend is complete (last time I saw this happen the move down was quite sharp – project a move down ranging from 5998, 5963, 5917 to potentially find support), suspect that XAO to rally up to retest the current major high (this Friday, possibly Monday).

If however the second cycle is actually a completion of the drive up, (and not a counter trend to the bullish drive), this may be a significant turning point – indicating this could be THE marginal high as suggested in the first forecast on this thread.

The problem I have is that there are 2 equally valid cycles running harmonically together, and this makes it difficult to determine if a completion has occurred or not, given one is extending, and the other is at the termination point.  Which is right?  The pattern which emerges out of this key time point is needed to determine if (assuming a pull back happens) the move that eventuates is a counter trend, or a change in trend.

Also, note that the 14th and 15th April feature in many of the major index cycles I perceive (US key indexes, DAX, Nikkei), (FTSE had a minor increment on the 11th April).  The DAX looks like it may not achieve the index level I projected, having found resistance at exactly the next price increment down, hence not sure how the cycle will stand up.   

Some cycles I am seeing look like they could be terminal cycles (US – both minor and major cycles are terminating on or around the 14th April, and some cycles have major increments around this date), hence I’m waiting to see how all these indexes trade into these dates.  I suspect that the US may well lead all the other indexes depending on what it does.

I’m expecting some kind of move to happen in the US, (suspect a bearish one if the index can’t take out the existing highs, quite a different pattern to the XAO), but can’t quite read the pattern, since the move down in the US indexes seems to have been corrective, and the move up seems to have been impulsive, not suggesting a bearish impulse down… hence may see some kind of “ABC” corrective move if a bearish move eventuates next week, but I’m still uncertain about this until the price action plays out next week.

I suspect many of the indexes may trade UP into these increments to find RESISTANCE, but may trade DOWN into them and find SUPPORT.  Hence watching how the indexes trade over the next few days may help to fill in some blank spaces in the pattern.


Regards


Magdoran


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## yogi-in-oz (14 April 2007)

Hi folks,

Updating some further DOW/XJO time cycle analysis:

DOW in April 07 ... an underlying difficult cycle for
the DOW, until the end of April 07, with negative
news coming in 20042007 ... watching longitudes
15 West, 138 East and 101 West  ... (windy weather???)

25-26042007 ... more difficult times for DOW here,
possibly triggered by aggression or violence .....
another war ... perhaps???

26-30042007 ... likely to be VERY negative for
Aussie XJO market, too ...

04-07052007 ... should see a positive DOW.

18-21052007 ... minor DOW cycle ... 

     23052007 ... significant DOW move ... looking
                       currency trigger here ...(???)

18-28052007 ... 2 conflicting cycles for Aussie XJO
will have us looking for some extreme volatility, in
this period of time. 

28052007-05062007 ... may be particularly negative
for DOW, as well.

06-07062007 ... Aussie XJO should be positive, 
but will likely fade badly, from late-07062007 and
into 08062007 is likely to be very negative, again.

have a great weekend

  paul



=====


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## Magdoran (17 April 2007)

DAX Update – (please refer to the forecast in post 33).


The 16th April high for the DAX was 7340.25, (6.52 short of the forecast index level of 7346.77).  

What do people think? Was this close enough as a time and price forecast? (Is being within 1000th accurate enough, or do you think the precision should be accurate to the point?).


This move looks exhaustive to me, and if long this presented an excellent point to take profits in my opinion since there is significant resistance in time and price at this level.  Due to the momentum, it is possible for the index to continue bullishly however, but think this is less likely for the short term.

Assuming a move down, this presents the question if it is a mild counter trend before a strong bullish continuation, a strong counter trend (may move DOWN into 21 May), or even some kind of stronger correction since this could be a cycle completion.

I need to see how this pans out in the near term and how it trades into the 03 May minor time increment to work out the probabilities on how it might trend from here.



Regards,


Magdoran


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## CanOz (17 April 2007)

Hey Mag, i can short the DAX! Might have to have a closer look.

Cheers,


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## Magdoran (17 April 2007)

CanOz said:


> Hey Mag, i can short the DAX! Might have to have a closer look.
> 
> Cheers,



Hello Canaussieuck,


Not financial advice, (that goes for the DAX forecast too), but the trend in the DAX is UP, hence shorting at this point is potentially a pure counter trend play unless the price action demonstrates it a more substantial move, and understanding the nature of this kind of pattern, and the probable levels in time and price to take partial exits I would see as being critical.

Sure there may be a strong move down into the 21 May increment, but it might trend UP into this date too, or pull back into the 03 minor increment then trend up.  

I just don’t know at this point, but suspect at least a halt in the recent strong bullish drive, but this might only be for a day or two for all I know.  It could quite well continue driving strongly from here into the 21 May (I doubt this, but it is entirely possible given the recent strength – as McLaren essentially says - pitch can overcome support/resistance in time).

The usual probability from this pattern is for a move down into the 21 May, but I’ve seen these pull back sharply for a few of days, then shoot back up to retest and even exceed the high.  The usual pull back from this pattern if it is a continuation is around 25%-33% retracement from the key low range to high.  If it is a correction, it can test and even exceed the low at the beginning of the daily chart drive (sometimes in a “mirror image fold back”).

Hence, I’m going to watch the price action and pattern for a few days to work out what is going on… but by all means if you see a tradeable opportunity, my comments are just to flesh out the probabilities and highlight the risks and alternative possibilities.


Regards


Magdoran


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## CanOz (17 April 2007)

Of interest on the timing.

European Stocks May Retreat, Paced by BHP Billiton and Nestle 

By Sarah Jones

April 17 (Bloomberg) -- European stocks may fall from a 6 1/2-year high, tracking declines in Asian equities. BHP Billiton Ltd. and Nestle SA might drop. 

Pirelli & C. SpA may be active after AT&T Inc. retracted a bid to buy a stake in Telecom Italia SpA's controlling shareholder. Tesco Plc might move after the retailer posted a 20 percent gain in full-year profit. Debenhams Plc may fall after Britain's second-largest department-store company said full-year earnings will be below analysts' estimates. 

Futures on the Euro Stoxx 50, a benchmark for the 13 countries using the euro, fell 12 to 4295 at 7:23 a.m. in London. The U.K.'s FTSE 100 Index may slide 26, according to IG Markets, a betting firm. 

Asian stocks fell from a seven-week high, with benchmarks including Australia retreating from a record. U.S. reports today on consumer prices and housing may provide further information about growth and inflation in the world's largest economy. 

``We are looking to reverse some of those recent strong gains'' in Europe, said Oliver Stevens, deputy head of trading at IG Markets in Australia. ``I think the market will hold fire until the economic figures comes through.'' 

BHP, the world's largest mining company, lost 1 percent in Australia. American depositary receipts of Nestle, the world's biggest food company, fell 0.4 percent from its close in Zurich. 

Pirelli may be active after AT&T withdrew a bid to buy one- third of Olimpia SpA, the holding company controlled by Pirelli that owns 18 percent of Telecom Italia. 

Carlos Slim's America Movil SAB, which offered to buy another third of Olimpia alongside AT&T on April 1, said yesterday it was still interested in the stake. 

Tesco, Debenhams 

Tesco, the U.K.'s biggest retailer, reported a gain in full- year profit to 1.89 billion pounds ($3.8 billion) after the company expanded stores and sold more organic food and clothing. 

That compares with the average estimate of 1.79 billion pounds, according to 16 analysts surveyed by Bloomberg. Sales gained 8.1 percent to 42.6 billion pounds. 

Debenhams said full-year profit will be below analysts' estimates after a sales decline worsened. 

Revenue at stores open at least a year dropped 6.9 percent in the second-half since March 4. That compares to a decline of 4.5 percent in the first half. First-half profit increased by 34 percent as Debenhams reduced interest payments. 

In the U.S., the Standard & Poor's 500 Index yesterday climbed to its highest in more than six years, boosted by higher- than-expected bank and drug company earnings and the $25 billion takeover of student-loan provider SLM Corp.


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## dodgers (17 April 2007)

Good to have you back Magdoran. As always, great analysis!


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## Magdoran (10 May 2007)

*Contrarian Musings*

I’m going to be a contrarian from recent comments on the XAO Analysis thread.  I suspect that even if there is a small pullback in the near future, that the XAO is still in a bullish cycle.  The pattern I have to say looks bullish to me.  In fact it looks very bullish to me like it may try to blow off.

This is perhaps where Elliott Wave theory and geometric schools may diverge.  I certainly take into account the EW views in the XAO Analysis thread that this may be a terminal wave taking place, and that a completion may be nearing, but the pattern for me still represents a higher probability of continuation at present into I suspect somewhere around at least the 31 of May (2007). 

I also wouldn’t be surprised to see the XAO continue bullishly into 18 July, or even into the 04 September if the current pattern holds, and the counter trends continue to indicate strength.  

The Hang Seng and FTSE are both right on resistance right now, and although I suspect these will continue bullishly, may pull back a little from these levels before breaking the resistance levels.  The DAX however still looks bullish (although it too may pull back a little here), and is nearing key dates – 21 May, and 02 June, and how it trades around here will give an indication of how it may trend post these time points.

I am however concerned about the US market, and the possibility of some kind of a high coming in there at some point.  This is still unclear to me, hence some caution with the US and other international indexes.  McLaren has been forecasting a 90 day blow off move for the S&P 500 in the US into 12 June 2007, being 90 calendar days from the low.




> *US Key dates if McLaren’s US forecast is correct:*
> 
> Termination:  *12 June*; Major date - 20 May; Minor dates - 09 May, 01 June.





Interestingly, I have 12 June as a major date for the XAO.  There may be some correlation here if McLaren’s cycle work is correct for the US market since this may well have an impact on the XAO.




> *XAO*
> 
> Key dates (both cycles):  *31 May*, *04 September*.
> 
> ...






Now, I want to flag a cautionary note here (especially to aspiring users of this style of technical analysis using time cycles):

My confidence in the accuracy of the time cycle dates tends to diminish in strong moves (either in blow off moves into significant highs, or in capitulation moves into significant lows).  This is an important point McLaren makes very clear that “pitch” can overcome support and resistance in time.  

Essentially the idea is that if a trend moves into a phase where the price action is in either an extreme panic or euphoria, that the effects of cycles can be overwhelmed.  Think about the way a stock can blow through conventional horizontal support and resistance levels in price when an extreme move is taking place.  The same thing happens to time increments.  The underlying just blows straight through support and resistance as if it wasn’t there.

The mania of such moves takes on a life of its own making precise calculations in time difficult.  However, some price increments can sometimes come into play (for example, RIO’s recent extreme high for example was 6 cents off a key price increment in the cycle I was working from). On other occasions even price increments can be of limited use too.  A lot depends on the strength of the move.

Certainly cycles may still be evident when these fast trends are in play, but the price action can sometimes move straight through time points in significant moves, and then the effects of the cycle can resume later.  But the way the underlying is moving in time and price, and the pattern within a valid cycle can tell a lot about the way the underlying is trending.

Hence, in a blow off move, the precise time of a high may be difficult to pinpoint, but will be evident in the pattern of trend.


Interesting times!



Regards


Magdoran


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## wavepicker (12 May 2007)

Magdoran said:


> *Contrarian Musings*
> 
> I’m going to be a contrarian from recent comments on the XAO Analysis thread.  I suspect that even if there is a small pullback in the near future, that the XAO is still in a bullish cycle.  The pattern I have to say looks bullish to me.  In fact it looks very bullish to me like it may try to blow off.
> 
> ...






Mag,

As you know I have the utmost respect fot your work and your ability. I am the first to say that I have evidence of work in action and your ability to call key reversals in the past with actual dates and price levels.

There is no way I or anybody else I know on this forum could even come close to even attempting to forecast like you can at the moment.

The charts posted by myslef and Nick on the XAO analysis where in terms of EW analysis a cautionary note that a correction(quite a significant one) maybe coming up. I for one am unable to give accurate dates such as you but work within ZONES of potential reversals for both price and time. You know what I am talking about.

In terms of price and EW we are at(or approaching)  at a very critical juncture in the next 3-4 weeks. The XAO has already reached my minimum price target, but there is nothing to say this will not extended further, however my methodology(right or wrong) says that this upside is very limited if it does . I can post evidence of this but will not unless privately requested. A significant upside move would invalidate a long term wave count that would mean something completely different is happening to what I currently think.

In terms of time, as you can see I have posted 3 major cycles, 2 of which are harmonics of the larger one. The chart cycles(which have been extrapolated forward from averages of earlier cycle lengths)  show that these 3 cycles are either topping or pointed hard down(however because  these are estimations there must be a  leeway). I should note here that I have only posted three cycles, and in theory ther are infinite cycles that contract and expand. I have chosen these becuase they are topping at the same time. The zone for these cycles to come into effect was from last week to mid June. Once again I am unable to give specific dates and times. (Although currently working on another form of cycles analysis which should help)

You have posted quite a few dates there ranging from the 19th May to 22nd September, which in itself is a range, not too disimliar to what the EW and Cyclic analysis maybe telling us. There are many possibilities there, how does one know the best possibility?? How do you go about choosing the most probable date?? After all, our job in the market as traders is our ability to be able to narrow down the probabilities so the cards are stacked in our favour. If one were using both the Gann and EW methodologies combined, this may give one a distict edge.

The date of 12th of September you have chosen for XAO  seems to be in the zone, and falls in cyclic range of the cycles I have posted.

Once again I say that the charts posted by myself and Nick were on an observational cautionary level that the market may be churning and maybe about to change . There was no mention that this will right now.

Look forward to seeing how the market pans out

Cheers


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## Magdoran (5 June 2007)

*PBD3M (LME Lead futures) Update*

In reference to post 33 on this thread, the PBD3M (LME Lead futures) forecast is nearing the projected high, slightly earlier than projected.  I will try to work out what is going on depending on how it trades into the key time increment.


Regards,


Magdoran

P.S. this should really be in the commodity area I know, but it is an example of using Gann techniques...  Mag.


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## acouch (28 September 2007)

Gann Wheel for those interested..
posted it on the wrong Gann forum i think :-(
thanks sails

trial and error 
ac


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## Edwood (28 September 2007)

interesting tool acouch whats the principle please?  (in simple terms thanks )


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## acouch (28 September 2007)

place to high/low in the blue centre, click enter..
then as you can see the lines spreading out they are of the different degrees it might be of use to some 
have a great weekend Elwood
ac


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## Trader Paul (28 September 2007)

yogi-in-oz said:


> Hi folks,
> 
> You will remember, for some months we have been
> calling for XJO to go beserk in Feb 2007. Well, you
> ...





..... XJO looking good to fulfill, the forecast above,
posted 31 January 2007:

have a great weekend

       paul


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## Edwood (12 October 2007)

saw this posted elsewhere, can't validate it but thought you gann'ers might be able to comment

In another reinforcement of Gann’s
principles of geometry, the DJIA is currently trading
near a precise 6-fold multiple of that October 11,
1990 low (2,365 x 6 = 14,190). The 1997 & 2002
correction lows were very close to a 3-fold multiple
(7,095/DJIA), while the Jan. 2000 peak was just shy
of a 5-fold multiple (11,825/ DJIA). So, this
principle has applied to major turning points
throughout this 17-year bull market.
The first sign that a reversal lower is
unfolding would be daily closes below 14,009/
DJIA, 1560.0/SPZ & 2143/NQZ.


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## acouch (12 October 2007)

interesting edwood 
ac


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## Sean K (12 October 2007)

Edwood said:


> saw this posted elsewhere, can't validate it but thought you gann'ers might be able to comment
> 
> In another reinforcement of Gann’s
> principles of geometry, the DJIA is currently trading
> ...



This reminds me of the Sep 11 numbers theorists breaking down everything to add up to 11.  

And I thought 42 was the answer!


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## acouch (14 October 2007)

just to add a little more to this..

6*1184 = 7104...917*1.707 = 7100

food for thought 
ac


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## Trader Paul (15 October 2007)

yogi-in-oz said:


> Hi folks,
> 
> You will remember, for some months we have been
> calling for XJO to go beserk in Feb 2007. Well, you
> ...






Hi folks,

Above details were posted, on 31 January 2007 ..... !~!

It sure looks like XJO is trading to the script, so far
and this week we should see our market BOOMING,
as posted, above ..... 

.....  

happy trading

  paul




=====


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## Freddo (3 March 2008)

Significance of 144 

Recently there was a difference of 144 points between the close of SPI day session to close of the SPI night session.

I know this is a significanr number to Gann analysts so I figured I would try and find out why.

Here is some info I found which relates 144 to the bible which I know played a vital part of Gann's trading.

http://www.greatdreams.com/sacred/144.htm

Tonight I'll see if i can find examples of using 144 to trade the SPI


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## soso (3 March 2008)

Freddo said:


> Significance of 144
> 
> Recently there was a difference of 144 points between the close of SPI day session to close of the SPI night session.
> 
> ...




I didn't read it yet, will tonight if I have some time, thanks for the link! 

I'd like to point out a pattern of both 90 and 144 cycles, from a numerological pov they are both translated to 9 (9+0=9, 1+4+4=9), also their divions and multiplications end up as 9 (45=9, 72=9, 36=9, 288=9 etc). Now 9 is the biggest digit, and the last one, then it all starts again with 0, it coud represent a symbol of the end of a cycle. In our case the end of a market swing, or a vibration.


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## Freddo (3 March 2008)

I  have consulted some Gannites who tell me the following

Gann had a Square of 144.
He called his Square of 144 his master calculator.

Gann apparentyl taught is use of the "square" in a couple of courses
but the square of 144 lesson was only in the Commodities course.

I have tried to find examples of the use of this on the SPI all I was able to find out from people who know is stuff is old and they don't trade anymore.

I'm not saying it doesn't work it seems to have worked at some time so here we go.
16/2/1983 to the low on 19 nov 1985 was 1008 days (144 x 7)
The low on 19/11/1985 was 971.5 the 1988 top was 972 days after 19/11/1985.
On a square of 144 972 lines up with 1692 and the yearly high on 18th July 1988 was 1691.

The high in 1986 was 1255 which is close to 1260 on a square of 144 which lines up with 972.

The high in Feb 1994 of 2368 is 4 squares on the square of 144 apart from
the low in Nov 1994 of 1793.

I have built a very rough square of 144 using excel.
What I will do later in the week is load the values into a database and search for highs and lows that match.

If I can figure it out I'll try and get time of 144 multiples checked as well.


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## Freddo (3 March 2008)

Yikes 

Just found our high of 6880 on the square of 144

the high in Oct 1987 of 2364 is on the square too !

Hang about nearly every major high and low is on this thing
the numbers are so close together.


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## josjes (4 March 2008)

That's all in the past, wish to know what's in the future ? what about the low of 2008. That's the trillion dollar question


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## Freddo (4 March 2008)

josjes said:


> That's all in the past, wish to know what's in the future ? what about the low of 2008. That's the trillion dollar question




Heck I dunno...

Lets see if I was a Gann trader I guess I would be looking for the following numbers once we start looking for a new all time high
	7024	7168	7312	7456

Sorry I only know the very basics of Gann Squares hopefully we might draw a comment from someone who actually trades using a Gann Square


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## onemore (5 March 2008)

This site has alot of info on Gann,lunar & planetary trading.
http://beginnertrader.com/forum2/

Not that I'm into it .

cheers


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## Freddo (5 March 2008)

Thanks onemore, some interesting info there.

Not my scene but very interesting
cheers Freddo


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## Freddo (19 March 2008)

Couldn't see any recent posts about seasonal time lately.

I know it's more important to be a good trader then a forecaster

just for fun though, anyone care to share their thoughts for seasonal dates for this year?


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