# TOL - Toll Holdings



## GreatPig (4 July 2005)

Looks like a small head and shoulders formed in this stock.

Sold out this morning for $12.89.

Cheers,
GP


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## GreatPig (7 July 2005)

Wow... a stock that's actually following the theory...

Current price down to $12.38.

GP


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## delgary (8 July 2005)

So any ideas as to what this means for the future??


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## phoenixrising (8 July 2005)

A possible buy at the 11.60 low


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## GreatPig (6 January 2006)

Another run looks like it might have ended. Sold out today for $14.55.

Cheers,
GP


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## RichKid (6 January 2006)

GreatPig said:
			
		

> Another run looks like it might have ended. Sold out today for $14.55.
> 
> Cheers,
> GP




It's off the rails alright GP, might bode well for PRK if this is the big funds shorting it (although PRK had a bad day too), let's see how the volume levels work out next week.


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## GreatPig (19 January 2006)

That's what I call right off the rails 

Cheers,
GP


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## michael_selway (20 January 2006)

GreatPig said:
			
		

> That's what I call right off the rails
> 
> 
> 
> ...




hehe if u call that "right off the rails"

what do u call this? HSP cliffhanger maybe?


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## Nicks (7 February 2006)

TOL is making a run, bargain hunters are starting to wake up and smell the cheese.
Regardless of what happens with Patrick at this price, security, dividends and EPS TOL is a bargain.
(heard a rumour that Fed Ex is about to move in - makes good strategic sense to set up Australian shop practically already done for them)


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## GreatPig (7 February 2006)

It's up a bit today, but as someone once said:

It's a long way to the top when you've got some stock in Toll :

GP


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## Dan_ (7 February 2006)

ROFLOL,


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## Odysseus (7 February 2006)

I see Toll as a very risky stock to buy into at this stage. Sure, it looks "cheap", but management has unintentionally succeeded in persuading the market that by NOT gaining PRK - and it probably won't - it will have insufficient growth possiblities as an alternative. As well, the break-up of Pacific National, if that occurs, will harm TOL significantly. Much better to stand aside, wait until the legal wrangles are out of the way, and THEN reassess the situation, even if you pay a bit more. Until some tangible, positive news emerges (e.g. a take-over of TOL by someone else - unlikely), the market will not support the stock, and in my view rightly so. Toll has by now got itself  entangled in a mess of its own making. It's one thing to misjudge the take-over, and quite another then to get yourself embroiled with Corigan and the ACCC at the same time. It is now, alas, a very different stock from the one we knew a number of months back. I'd say: AVOID, for the time being. Just my own sense, though.


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## Nicks (8 February 2006)

Why would you avoid a blue chip stock that has either a great strategic takeover on the cards or as an alternative if this fails great management track record, great business and with a huge surplus of cash = very strategic position and massive dividend payout or share buy back coming our way....
TOL has lots of alternative options available to it if PRK bid fails, and heaps of cash. 
And we are forgetting current business, very successful bringing in almost its entire capital value in revenue each year. Every second truck or van you see on the street these days is TOL - they are very successful.
By all means, avoid, avoid, avoid so I can Buy Buy Buy some more cheap and own a solid business, with solid returns and a great market position with massive expanability if not locally then abroad. Expandability limit? look at the capital value of Fed Ex.
- a long way to the top if you got some stock in TOL - great! good thing im buying now then.


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## Nicks (9 February 2006)

... so far up more than 5% since i said its about to go for a run earlier this week (see below). People are starting to realise the 'over reaction' with TOL and are now moving in for the good buy. Over reaction is a well documented and common event on the market.
As the AFR (9/2/2006) put it "its become fashionable to bag Toll Holding's", these same fair weathered fiends are now snapping up the stock.
Today the ACCC commenced legal proceedings. Good. The issue will get resolved, Toll will make an excellent acquistion, or it wont and get back to good business anyway (where its stock was trading between $13-$14 prior to the PRK takeover announcement), and everyone will move on. What will happen to the share price then? stay under valued and down due to over reaction? time will move on as will people and business. Stock will recover back to what it is worth (and a hell of a lot more if it is successful with the bid). 
Toll are not silly either. The decision to continue with the takeover and allow the ACCC to initiate proceedings is not because they feel like a fight. I get the sense that there is rhyme and reason behind it. Strategy.


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## 77TRADER77 (9 February 2006)

What a dog Toll Holdings is. Still sending me letters about PRK takeover even after ACCC told them to stop.
Shareholders in Toll feel the same way as shareholders in Patrick about Little... he destroyed his own great enterprise with greed.
I wanted to stay a loyal Patrick (PRK) supporter but costs and shareholder confidence deserted the mighty PRK too. But Corrigans one to watch.... smartest card in the deck... Predict PRK better/stronger than ever late 2006/early 2007.

I'm on Chip Goodyear now... BHP to roll to $30-00 like Chip said!


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## Odysseus (9 February 2006)

NICKS is right to think that IF Toll gets Patrick things should be OK. But this has now become quite a big if, though it is not impossible. However, the actions of CEO Litttle himself have drawn attention to just how important this acquisition is to Toll's wellbeing, and that is where a lot of its present inherent weakness presents itself quite nakedly. The central question has become: WHERE DOES THE GROWTH COME FROM WITHOUT PATRICK? And that is not at all an easy thing to answer with confidence. Yes, Nicks, Toll certainly HAS BEEN a great company. It has grown fast, and with skill. But within Australia itself, there is now little to acquire if Patrick can't be bought, and there would be further possible hassle about the next (minor) acquisition. The truth is that Toll has gone about its Patrick business clumsily, antagonising Corrigan, the ACCC, and countless investors. It now looks an awful lot less impressive than it used to. It might just possibly make a foreign acquisition, but that will be a lot harder, in all respects, than one here would have been. One can only hope that the ACCC will be defeated in court. That is not unprecedented, thank God.


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## Nicks (10 February 2006)

Interesting point made in AFR today, basically points out that TOL being repsondent in the trial means that it has the strategic advantage of not having to prove its case. Instead the ACCC will have the onus of proving TOLs bid is uncompetetive.
The ACCC case is weak, and TOL know it, they originally had no issues with factors of the takeover bid concerning integrated logistics, but are now backflipping and saying they do. It has become personal just as much for the ACCC to prove a point and its getting silly. Any decent judge will see this backflip for what it is, mustering up anything they can now to oppose TOL, as they do not have much substantial after TOLs original concessions. 
There ia a lot of paying out TOL and Little (and as the AFR said it is becoming fashionable) but Corrigan is just as much a player. Little is the smart one, the quiet achiever. The not so smart one is the one who grasps for power and notoriety, we've seen this before of Corrigan and we are seeing it again now.
The quiet achiever is just that, an achiever, dont be fooled he is a veryt smart cookie and the only reason Corrigan is kicking and screaming like a ..... is becasue he knows it and he is feeling that his empire is getting threatened - why is he feeling this? because it is. If there was no threat then this wouldnt be happening. The takeover for Corrigan is very real indeed and he knows it. He can scream, pretend to takeover Linfox, whatever but we must look deaper into why this might all be happening. Little and TOL are switched on, and if you look at the history and the other key players in their camp, Clayton Utz for example, they aint continuing this because they are stupid. 
My money (literally) is on Little not Corrigan. Like I said a few days ago, the tide is changing and im not the only one who thinks this way, hence the share price movement this week. The mood is now changing from 'theyve botched it' to 'looks like they might do it'. AND like I keep saying, in differencing of opinion to ODYSSEUS, if they dont get their with the PRK takeover they are still in a very strategic position and have a great business, and there might be some cash cow dividends coming our way - thats the beauty of TOL, not only have they been able to deliver strong organic growth, but have such a solid business that they can pump out big DPS instead. I think it was AFR that said even without PRK TOL will still be delivering 10%+ growth and this is through Synergies.
I have done a comprehesive analysis of TOL from a fiscal, historical and strategic point of view and it all looks good, PRK is just a bonus that looks like it may come to fruition.


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## Nicks (10 February 2006)

Interesting point made in AFR today, basically points out that TOL being repsondent in the trial means that it has the strategic advantage of not having to prove its case. Instead the ACCC will have the onus of proving TOLs bid is uncompetetive.
The ACCC case is weak, and TOL know it, they originally had no issues with factors of the takeover bid concerning integrated logistics, but are now backflipping and saying they do. It has become personal just as much for the ACCC to prove a point and its getting silly. Any decent judge will see this backflip for what it is, mustering up anything they can now to oppose TOL, as they do not have much substantial after TOLs original concessions. 
There ia a lot of paying out TOL and Little (and as the AFR said it is becoming fashionable) but Corrigan is just as much a player. Little is the smart one, the quiet achiever. The not so smart one is the one who grasps for power and notoriety, we've seen this before of Corrigan and we are seeing it again now.
The quiet achiever is just that, an achiever, dont be fooled he is a veryt smart cookie and the only reason Corrigan is kicking and screaming like a ..... is becasue he knows it and he is feeling that his empire is getting threatened - why is he feeling this? because it is. If there was no threat then this wouldnt be happening. The takeover for Corrigan is very real indeed and he knows it. He can scream, pretend to takeover Linfox, whatever but we must look deaper into why this might all be happening. Little and TOL are switched on, and if you look at the history and the other key players in their camp, Clayton Utz for example, they aint continuing this because they are stupid. 
My money (literally) is on Little not Corrigan. Like I said a few days ago, the tide is changing and im not the only one who thinks this way, hence the share price movement this week. The mood is now changing from 'theyve botched it' to 'looks like they might do it'. AND like I keep saying, in differencing of opinion to ODYSSEUS, if they dont get their with the PRK takeover they are still in a very strategic position and have a great business, and there might be some cash cow dividends coming our way - thats the beauty of TOL, not only have they been able to deliver strong organic growth, but have such a solid business that they can pump out big DPS instead. I think it was AFR that said even without PRK TOL will still be delivering 10%+ growth and this is through Synergies.
I have done a comprehesive analysis of TOL from a fiscal, historical and strategic point of view and it all looks good, PRK is just a bonus that looks like it may come to fruition.


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## Nicks (13 February 2006)

Found this on one of the other threads:
Toll might pursue P&O instead
By Philip Hopkins
SMH November 3, 2005

Toll Holdings has flagged that it may buy the stevedoring assets of P&O Ports in Australia if it fails in its $4.6 billion bid for Patrick Corporation.

Toll managing director Paul Little disclosed this yesterday when discussing the reported interest by the government of Dubai, through Dubai Ports World, in buying P&O's worldwide operations.

The Danish shipping line AP Moeller, the biggest shipping operator in the world, has also been reported to be interested in P&O.

Mr Little said Toll would be keen to talk to both groups to see whether they wanted to keep P&O's Australian assets in their world portfolios. The Australian assets may not be central to their future growth plans.

"We have said Patrick's are the assets we would prefer to have. But if Patrick's assets are not available, we would look closely at P&O," he said.

Mr Little acknowledged that Toll had previously approached P&O to buy its Australian operations but "they were not keen".

"Under a sale process, we need to revise that now," he said. But the news about other parties' interest in P&O only became known on the weekend, so Toll had had no time to do any work on it.

Mr Little said the move on P&O confirmed the philosophy behind Toll's bid for Patrick: the rationalisation of the global logistics industry.

A takeover by Toll of Patrick would increase efficiency and be good for customers, particularly in and out of Asia, he said.

Mr Little's comments came as he issued Toll's supplementary bidder's statement in reply to Patrick's target's statement, and announced that the offer had been extended to December 2.

Mr Little said that by November 14, the Australian Competition and Consumer Commission would publish its phase one findings which would summarise the sensitive issues involved in a possible takeover.

These potentially were rail and coastal shipping. "We will address them as we go," he said.

Mr Little said the deficiencies in the Patrick target's statement reinforced the merits of Toll's takeover bid. These included:

■ Patrick has effectively endorsed the logic of Toll's bid by its plans to expand in freight forwarding and express freight but has no strategy to bring it about.

■ Despite two years of profit forecasts, Patrick has not provided any information on its current gearing and forecast cash flows.

■ Patrick's financial forecasts rely on the successful Pacific National joint venture continuing in its present form.

Mr Little said Patrick's port division was valued at 25 times 2005 earnings, which was 90 per cent above the average of recent port company transactions.

The multiple being offered for P&O was about 13 times earnings, while Toll's implied multiple was about 19. "The value we have placed on Patrick's ports assets means … we are paying a very full price," he said.

Mr Little reiterated that Toll had ruled out raising its price for Patrick. Toll's share price had been hit by concerns about the ACCC and the possible breaking-up of PN.

"Once Toll's share price is normalised, we will have a better view of the value of the Toll bid," he said.


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## Nicks (14 February 2006)

Exactly one week ago I called that TOL is making a run, and that it has.

The market has changed its tune since it became fashionable to bag TOLs takeover bid causing an over reaction, and now looks to be betting that TOL has a good chance of succeeding the PRK bid. 

Little stayed cool knowing what his cards were regardless of media and public hype and its now looking more and more likely that hes much more in tune with the situation than everyone thought. 

The smart investors are eating their humble pie and pride and starting to get back in (hence the movement over the last week). Alas there are still those who are hanging onto the 'fashion' at their own and their investors expense.

TOL has another dollar to go yet before it settles in the $12.50 to $13 range awaiting the rersults of proceedings, which it seems that it may win, which will send the share price north of $15.


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## Nicks (14 February 2006)

... oh yeah and I wouldnt be taking investment advice from *77TRADER77*, reading your post one week on everything you said now seems ridiculous (although it did for me back then also). 
Oh, good call with BHP (not). Anyone could have made that bandwagon call at that time after the fact. Gee look at the stock straight after that call.

Some dog TOL is. One of the better performing companies in Australian history. "Destroyed" - whats destroyed? I see as many TOL couriers, trucks etc on the street as ever before, doing real business.

How silly Little is, going for one of the best aquisitions for his company ever. If he didnt I as a shareholder would be left wondering why not.

Corrigan - smartest card in the deck?? Showing your hand aint that good in poker.

Like I say, you aint smart if you jump on the bandwagon....or wear last years fashion.


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## Nicks (14 February 2006)

Dividend coming soon.


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## Nicks (15 February 2006)

77TRADER77 said:
			
		

> What a dog Toll Holdings is. Still sending me letters about PRK takeover even after ACCC told them to stop.
> Shareholders in Toll feel the same way as shareholders in Patrick about Little... he destroyed his own great enterprise with greed.
> I wanted to stay a loyal Patrick (PRK) supporter but costs and shareholder confidence deserted the mighty PRK too. But Corrigans one to watch.... smartest card in the deck... Predict PRK better/stronger than ever late 2006/early 2007.
> 
> I'm on Chip Goodyear now... BHP to roll to $30-00 like Chip said!





77TRADER77 - suggest you read back page of AFR today, Full Page Article on your "smartest card in the deck". The guy is self centered and is shafting people like you, the shareholders, for his own stake and pride in his repuation in the corporate world in Australia, for it is a battle he does not want to lose now and is shafting shareholder value in the process. Talk about empie destroying and greed. You just got the wrong bloke pegged for it. Good luck with your analysis, might help to provide some support in your analysis though.

Suggest get out of PRK fast, before too much shareholder value is lost.


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## Nicks (21 February 2006)

ahhhhhh look at the Half Year profit announcement today, so solid, so good, so secure = increasing share price.


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## Nicks (6 March 2006)

So, who of ye faithful bought and held TOL stock?

We are looking at the Fed Ex equivalent of Asia here. TOL announced aquisition of Singapores Sembcorp today, servicing many economies throughout Asia.

Who is the smartest card in the deck then?


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## Narkov (6 March 2006)

I think your point has been made Nicks. No need to drag yourself down over it.


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## It's Snake Pliskin (6 March 2006)

Yes...It`s important not to fall in love with a stock. :blover:


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## Odysseus (6 March 2006)

I expressed negative views about TOL when they failed in their bid for Patrick, and seemed to have no alternative of any substance to fall  back on. However, today's Asian purchase DOES provide that alternative, and it seems not impossible that they may get some of Patrick's assets too, after all. Anyway, the stock now looks a lot better again, and I hastened to buy back in. Essentially, this has always been a good company. I don't regret having been out of it for a while, though. Good hunting, everybody.


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## Nicks (9 March 2006)

Odysseus said:
			
		

> I expressed negative views about TOL when they failed in their bid for Patrick, and seemed to have no alternative of any substance to fall  back on. However, today's Asian purchase DOES provide that alternative, and it seems not impossible that they may get some of Patrick's assets too, after all. Anyway, the stock now looks a lot better again, and I hastened to buy back in. Essentially, this has always been a good company. I don't regret having been out of it for a while, though. Good hunting, everybody.




Agree Odysseus you had a valid point and position, although I think everyone was a bit harsh on TOL at the time and over reacted, now its easy (not you) to bag me for sticking to my guns on TOL and claiming a good call, but in fairness im entitled to after stating a position that differed from the bandwagon, so to speak.

I do need to clarify however that they have not failed in their bid for Patrick. It was not as easy as anticipated in the beginning but as you rightly point out they may get there after all.


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## Nicks (9 March 2006)

- BTW pushing $13 again


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## 123enen (11 March 2006)

Wel, ACCC now gives OK for Toll to take Patrick
http://au.biz.yahoo.com/060311/31/l9qz.html


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## Julia (11 March 2006)

123enen said:
			
		

> Wel, ACCC now gives OK for Toll to take Patrick
> http://au.biz.yahoo.com/060311/31/l9qz.html




Yes, but I can't see Chris Corrigan rolling over peacefully just yet!

Julia


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## GreatPig (11 March 2006)

Time for an updated chart.

I got back in on 6th March for $11.95

Cheers,
GP


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## michael_selway (13 March 2006)

GreatPig said:
			
		

> Time for an updated chart.
> 
> I got back in on 6th March for $11.95
> 
> ...




nice pick up dude


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## GreatPig (13 March 2006)

Yes, it's an even prettier chart now 

Pity I don't have Patrick as well.

GP


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## Julia (13 March 2006)

GP

Good for you.  And that chart will almost certainly get even prettier as negotiations continue.

Julia


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## Nicks (14 March 2006)

GP - I picked up at 10.63 and 10.53 a couple of weeks back (low was 10.36).

IMO after the hype yesterday, TOL will gradually edge to $14 by end of week and $15 by end of month, and, if successful with PRK will start to head to $20. Yes this is a big call, but look at the underlying facts, Sembcorp acquisition alone prior to the PRK bid would have sent the shares to $15 (they were upper 13s prior to any takeovers). If successful with PRK then we have a logistics company that has incredible opporunity in the whole Asian region and very well vertically integrated.
$14 by end of week, $15 by end of month and then we'll see, but you know TOL will get PRK now, the signs are all there. Little wants it and Corrigan has a duty to shareholders to recommend an offer if it is of value to them , regardless of his pride (else he risks being kicked out or even legally liable)


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## GreatPig (14 March 2006)

Nick,

Good pick. I just go on technicals though, so waited for a push out of the triangle before buying.

Cheers,
GP


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## michael_selway (14 March 2006)

Nicks said:
			
		

> GP - I picked up at 10.63 and 10.53 a couple of weeks back (low was 10.36).
> 
> IMO after the hype yesterday, TOL will gradually edge to $14 by end of week and $15 by end of month, and, if successful with PRK will start to head to $20. Yes this is a big call, but look at the underlying facts, Sembcorp acquisition alone prior to the PRK bid would have sent the shares to $15 (they were upper 13s prior to any takeovers). If successful with PRK then we have a logistics company that has incredible opporunity in the whole Asian region and very well vertically integrated.
> $14 by end of week, $15 by end of month and then we'll see, but you know TOL will get PRK now, the signs are all there. Little wants it and Corrigan has a duty to shareholders to recommend an offer if it is of value to them , regardless of his pride (else he risks being kicked out or even legally liable)




Actually do u think one should sell TOL at 15, as it may not go through again? Then buy back when sold off?

thx

MS


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## Odysseus (15 March 2006)

I take seriously those who think Toll may now have over-stretched itself. If it does get Patrick, it will have paid a heck of a lot for it, on top of its new Asian asset. And Pacific National will be split. Toll had a lot riding on that entity, but it must now sell 50% to someone else, and it is by no means clear that Toll's 50% (the half left, that is) will bring it much without a highly co-operative holder at the other end. Anyway, if it pays too much and the assets it buys need a lot of financial sacrifice, the new toys won't necessarily produce a lot of money. I think Corrigan was perhaps after all right in thinking of Little as an acquisitions junkie! It's no longer as attractive to hold or buy as a little while ago.


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## robots (15 March 2006)

hello,

interesting watching the Toll-Patrick battle

cant see why Little would lift bid now that ACCC has given go ahead 

who is going to be another bidder? no-one

Toll reduced offer when Patrick paid recent dividend, so cant see Toll lifting bid too much, if at all

may only be by virtue of Tolls own share price appreciation

like Nicks has mentioned, Patrick going nowhere and people will start jumping off Patrick with Toll picking up the pieces.

Only one that can save Patrick now would be an institutional investor that takes Patricks side to keep above the compulsory acquisition I would think

Thankyou
Robots


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## Nicks (21 March 2006)

I have no problem with Little being an aquisitions junkie, providing its within TOLLs area of core competencies (ie Logistics).
In fact, as a shareholder I expect it.


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## Nicks (23 March 2006)

Hi All

just thought id give an update:

well the market is betting on Patrick shareholders taking up the offer. As TOL shares edge over $14.20 and higher this means that the offer to Patrick shareholders is becoming very attractive, as the offer included TOL shares and was made on the assumption of TOL shares being valued at $14.05.

So if you are a Patrick shareholder, then you are sitting on a very nice deal and opportunity to get lots of high value shares and become part of Asia's leading logistics company. If you are a TOL holder, be happy with the increase in share price which is reflecting the strategic value in this company.

Without the TOL offer, Patrick shares will undoubtedly fall back to where they were (if not lower) prior to market speculation of the TOL bid (eg back to share price of June 2005). So the risk is reject and drop 30% PRK share price, accept and get a premium value for your capital which will benefit shareholders of both sides.


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## GreatPig (27 March 2006)

A possible diamond reversal forming here?

Cheers,
GP


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## GreatPig (28 March 2006)

Out this morning for $13.65.

It may find support around $13.25 - $13.30, but I'm off shortly, so probably won't be here to find out.

Cheers,
GP


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## RichKid (28 March 2006)

GreatPig said:
			
		

> Out this morning for $13.65.
> 
> It may find support around $13.25 - $13.30, but I'm off shortly, so probably won't be here to find out.
> 
> ...




Looks bearish alright GP, everyone is getting out at those high levels, if it gaps down then we may have an island reversal of some kind up there. Watching RIO for a similar pattern but RIO is in a much stronger trend.


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## robots (12 April 2006)

hello,

ACCC has allowed Patrick to acquire FCL today


is this payback to TOL for Little's comment about Pacific National that it will not be a big deal if PN is sold, I suspect so.

interesting battle now, talking aus, Patrick has road, rail, wharf and planes

TOL has rail, road and ships to tassie

you can understand Corrigan wanting to protect this, and understand Little wanting to gobble it up

thankyou
Robots


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## StockyBailx (10 June 2006)

It looks  as though *TOL* may have gone into a world of its own. After all the excitement of buying out Patrick, and now that most of the smoke may have cleared I've got a good feeling TOL may be about to pounce and surge its holdings forward and expand into god only knows what.
If I'm not mistaken TOL's yearly charts are famous for big dips, which in turn can lead to good profits. TOL's monthly charts, like the one's below show signs of a flying saucer as we speak, near to completion as TOL moves ahead today @ 17cents.
I'm just saying that by loocking at TOL's charactor, present activity and those flying saurcers UFO's i think I see. _Now may be a good time to invest for a long term, Maybe?

It's your money not mine?
_


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## Nicks (11 July 2006)

Good call StockyBailx, TOL is surging ahead quite nicely and steadily. This is one of my long term faithfuls now and im looking at close to $20 by this time next year as the gains from this and last years difficult aquisitions and gains become realised and very profitable.
TOL is on track for being one of the global powerhouses in logistics.


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## StockyBailx (15 July 2006)

Good luck with that Nicks, I don't see any reason except for the marquarie bank and that other bloke? Corrigan! Seems to have a lot of interest and voting power in tol and can course quite a stir. Other than that you shouldn't get bugger all. When i look at tol, I exspect it to break the 15.8$ mark, before I could be sure that tol was to surge ahead. Tol also seems to be acting a little bit complicated to me, but I still think that with all of its extra credited assets Tol will be able to greate a transporting clobel empire and take over the US giants. With that much to do, and tolls nature of buisness for them to do it properly, - time will tell I guess.


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## StockyBailx (15 July 2006)

robots said:
			
		

> hello,
> 
> ACCC has allowed Patrick to acquire FCL today
> 
> ...



 If little doesn't lose that Corrigan Tol will go sideways for ever i reckon. Little wants to go one way, and Corrigan wants to go the other way, stale mate for tol. Cut the string that holds them together and watch Tol rise?


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## scsl (18 August 2006)

what's going on with TOL today? there's no announcements or news coming up in comsec. a quick look at the chart shows that it is close to its consolidation base of about $13.15.


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## scsl (5 September 2006)

Looks like TOL is heading towards $13 again... I was hoping it would break out of its consolidation range of between $13-15 but it was not to be. Looking at Commsec, TOL currently has very positive analyst recommendations. Is the sp not heading anywhere for the time being because the market is waiting for more convincing news on the Patrick takeover/guidance?


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## Nicks (6 October 2006)

StockyBailx said:
			
		

> Good luck with that Nicks, I don't see any reason except for the marquarie bank and that other bloke? Corrigan! Seems to have a lot of interest and voting power in tol and can course quite a stir. Other than that you shouldn't get bugger all. When i look at tol, I exspect it to break the 15.8$ mark, before I could be sure that tol was to surge ahead. Tol also seems to be acting a little bit complicated to me, but I still think that with all of its extra credited assets Tol will be able to greate a transporting clobel empire and take over the US giants. With that much to do, and tolls nature of buisness for them to do it properly, - time will tell I guess.




Gordon says that the faith in TOL has paid off. Im seriously happy about the position of this company. Looking at it, it has moved from an Australian player to a global player. This opens up the revenue base and value chain to me as an owner and shareholder. Little is a genius and couldn't have done better.


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## wizz (7 December 2006)

*Tol - getting close to $18*

This stock is incredible, just powering up at the moment. Been in and out about 6 times over the last decade and always regreted selling and bought in later at a higher price

Latest entry at $13 and she seems to be heading for $20. Obviously fuel, successful Patricks integration and Virgin are all drivers together with traction in Asia.

Big question to me is will they continue to be a predator or will they fall to a global consolidator like Dubai Ports?

Either way it seems the ride will continue.


----------



## Nicks (2 January 2007)

It's Snake Pliskin said:
			
		

> Yes...It`s important not to fall in love with a stock. :blover:




I confess my love for TOL.


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## reece55 (11 January 2007)

Toll appears to be loosing momentum of late...... After a great run from August going from 13.50 to 18.50, the stock is touching the $18.00 barrier and IMO opinion may break through it. Any opinions here??? 

From a fundamental perspective, the Company is looking overvalued - high PE multiple due to its profile as a growth stock which I am not sure is warranted (trading at 23x 07 median forecast). Dividend yield is pretty slim at about 2%. Plus, the stock is really on the backburner until the restructure proceeds..... And even the scheme booklets not due out until early March. 

The one thing this Company has managed to do in the last year and a bit is spend a crap load of shareholder funds on consultants. After god knows how much they spent on being consulted by Citigroup et al in acquiring Patrick (and IMO paying too much for the thing in the first place), now they are going to spin off the infrastructure assets for a yield play. And who have they got advising them - Clutz (the biggest rip-off legal firm in Australia - these guys charge grads out at more than $400.00 an hour for a copy and paste affair) and UBS - I am sure this will be cheap. Be prepared for the destruction of another forest of papers explaining the legal and taxation ramifications of the spin off - all of which no one will read (except for the analysts and perhaps the accountants). And where will the restructure expenses go - don't worry, you won't see in the precious profit and loss, it will go as a contra against equity......... Thereby maintaining EPS growth even if they ripped a crap load of funds and put in the hands of the rich consultants.

Cheers
Reece


----------



## reece55 (22 January 2007)

Well, I am a big believer in admitting when things don't go the way you expect........

After hitting the 18.00 barrier and breaking it on 11th Jan, this stock has done nothing but reach for the sky! Nice gap on 18th on high vol, with a new high today. The 19.30 ish resistance has been thrown to the wind, blue sky here for holders. Good luck to everyone riding this gravy train! If you had bought this one  in Feb 06, you would have yourself a 100% return........ incredible for such a large cap stock in, of all industries, transportation and logistics.

Cheers


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## Nicks (5 February 2007)

Thanks reece, some insightful posts. I have to agree with you on the consultant and law form rip offs, but TOL aint no different to most big aussie companies in this respect. It is a shame the way these things have started to become endemic in big Australian companies.


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## Nicks (5 February 2007)

Nicks said:
			
		

> Good call StockyBailx, TOL is surging ahead quite nicely and steadily. This is one of my long term faithfuls now and im looking at close to $20 by this time next year as the gains from this and last years difficult aquisitions and gains become realised and very profitable.
> TOL is on track for being one of the global powerhouses in logistics.




on the mark then...


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## AndyMc (6 June 2007)

WHOA!!

What has happened to TOL? Lost 40% today!! 

I hope no one purchased this recently, would of been a pretty good short sell though : :


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## GreatPig (6 June 2007)

See this thread.

That explains what the story is with TOL's big fall today. Nothing to be concerned about.

GP


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## BIG BWACULL (6 June 2007)

AndyMc said:


> WHOA!!
> 
> What has happened to TOL? Lost 40% today!!
> 
> I hope no one purchased this recently, would of been a pretty good short sell though : :



IT Got divided into two companies so there is NO WHOA but WOOOOOOOHOOOOOO 
Check this thread
https://www.aussiestockforums.com/forums/showthread.php?t=7142


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## BIG BWACULL (6 June 2007)

AndyMc said:


> WHOA!!
> 
> What has happened to TOL? Lost 40% today!!
> 
> I hope no one purchased this recently, would of been a pretty good short sell though : :



Actually if you got some shares i'll give you $12 a share, Now thats generous dont you think heh heh


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## AndyMc (6 June 2007)

Thanks for the information, makes sense.. 

I was a little troubled how a stock could have such a large drop and was looking for news that head offices being bombed. :


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## Damuzzdu (6 June 2007)

Some info on Asciano and toll holding de-merge that occurred today.

http://www.tradingroom.com.au/news_...ished/2007/6/157/catf_070606_171000_4328.html

Cheers
Muzz


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## marklar (6 June 2007)

AndyMc said:


> and was looking for news that head offices being bombed. :



Gawd I hope not, I work in that building!

I'm interested in how they came up with the ratio of how the shares' value was split. Anyone know?

m.


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## lazydays (6 June 2007)

The market today set the value. It was one TOL for one AOI.
Yesterday one TOL was $23.77.
Today you own one TOL @ $13.26 and one AIO @ $10.76. You made an extra 25c today.


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## shinobi346 (14 June 2007)

TOL and its off shoot are cruising along just nicely. 
Closed 14.41 + 11.14 today. In total, up $1.78 since the 5th.

anyone else receive forms from TOL again asking if you want to receive annual reports and take part in the DRP?


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## marklar (14 June 2007)

I skimmed another announcement from them today, some stuff going on in Singapore I think. Anyone got a valuation on them post-split?

m.


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## Ken (8 July 2007)

http://www.asx.com.au/asx/research/...ompareCode=&TimeFrame=M10&chart.x=0&chart.y=0

Ten years of TOL compared to the index.

Surely one of the best performing stocks of the decade.


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## Nicks (9 August 2007)

I Agree. I have been very bullish on this stock over the last 3 years and copped a fair bagging even on this thread for it.

Fundamentals are good, market is good and management very sharp. Big fan of TOL.


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## tronic72 (27 December 2007)

Am I the only person on here looking at stocks that aren't commodities? No interest in TOL since August??? 

Looking to buy back in. Anyone got any opinion on TOL at the moment? Recent large volume looks encouraging.


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## Kravis (4 January 2008)

TOL are the quiet achievers.
No need to worry about the share price in the short term. This business has produced and will continue to produce for the long term. Acquisition of a huge freight forwarder to existing operations was a 5 star move. Management are also 5 star material.


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## Ferret (5 January 2008)

I agree TOL looks strong for the long term.  

I've got a small holding and want to add to it, but with TOL's trend very negative and all markets looking shakey, I think I'll wait it out a bit longer.


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## Kravis (5 January 2008)

I can never know when the bottom may be....
In the long run, it will be immaterial on whether there was a 1+/- on when buying more. But certainly I agree with your comments and views that long term freight usage and the amount of goods will almost compound year in and year out. TOL is in the best position to take advantage.


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## adobee (5 January 2008)

tronic72 said:


> Am I the only person on here looking at stocks that aren't commodities? No interest in TOL since August???
> 
> Looking to buy back in. Anyone got any opinion on TOL at the moment? Recent large volume looks encouraging.




There was a positive write up I think in the Credit Suisse morning notes I am looking for the link from thursday. They have TOL as a buy or strong buy, I will have to wait till I am back at work to find the link..


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## nitpra (5 January 2008)

These are the recommendations given by different brokers as at 21/12/07
Broker                recommendation                target price
ABNmmens Amro - Buy                                 15.75
Citi                     upgrade to buy from hold    13.45
Merrill Lynch         Buy medium risk                15.50
UBS                    Buy                                 15.80
Credit Suisse        upgrade to outperform        14.90
Deutsche Bank      Buy                                 15.0


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## Kravis (5 January 2008)

The best we can hope for is that over the long term, value (price) moves in tandem with earnings. Nothing more and nothing less.

TOL has the right management and structures in place to continue being profitable, efficient and the best for the long term.


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## Garpal Gumnut (5 January 2008)

nitpra said:


> These are the recommendations given by different brokers as at 21/12/07
> Broker                recommendation                target price
> ABNmmens Amro - Buy                                 15.75
> Citi                     upgrade to buy from hold    13.45
> ...





Have you ever seen a *sell recommendation *from these brokers *before* a stock went down the gurgler ?? I enclose a chart of TOL. TOL is in a mother of downtrends from a trading range later last year. 

gg


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## Buffettology (6 January 2008)

tronic72 said:


> Am I the only person on here looking at stocks that aren't commodities? No interest in TOL since August???
> 
> Looking to buy back in. Anyone got any opinion on TOL at the moment? Recent large volume looks encouraging.




ha ha, this is what I often think!  

I bought TOL prior to its demerger and sold after making a nice profit.  Will probably buy in again now, I wouldnt be surprised to see this one go to $14-15 over the next year.  A nice 25%+ profit.


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## Kravis (6 January 2008)

I have held this behemoth since listing.

To create an all round logistics company was the theme back then and it continues to this day. The management have not moved from this position.

I hold and continue to do so. A business that has never been in fashion but produces results year in year out.


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## Buffettology (7 January 2008)

Kravis said:


> I have held this behemoth since listing.
> 
> To create an all round logistics company was the theme back then and it continues to this day. The management have not moved from this position.
> 
> I hold and continue to do so. A business that has never been in fashion but produces results year in year out.




I think TOL was reasonably liked for a while, $14-15 is an extremelly "fair" price for the company.  Couldnt really see this one getting much past $15.50 for quiet some time so according to my estimations, it had nearly reached its peak.  

Though prices are getting great for this one!  Im hoping the US hits the brakes over the next couple days and we get another little correction down towards 5800 or so!  I can see some great bargains coming up, already prices are starting to catch my eye!


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## tronic72 (12 January 2008)

Anyone know why TOL took such a hit last week. I know the Market dropped but TOL seemed to fair a lot worse than many others. At one stage on Friday it had lost 5%!!!

Was it due to the debt ratio?


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## tronic72 (14 January 2008)

This is soooo weird. As no one relied to my post I'll assume no one knows why TOL dropped so much. The fact that it's virtually back to the same point today makes me think that there wasn't any fundamental reason for the drop in price. I got nervous and sold one third of my position in TOL as I was close to a margin call and needed the cash. 

Weird!!!


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## Buffettology (14 January 2008)

tronic72 said:


> This is soooo weird. As no one relied to my post I'll assume no one knows why TOL dropped so much. The fact that it's virtually back to the same point today makes me think that there wasn't any fundamental reason for the drop in price. I got nervous and sold one third of my position in TOL as I was close to a margin call and needed the cash.
> 
> Weird!!!




Fear and greed are driving its price at the moment.  No fundamentals.

This is probably why nobody replied.  The prices of most stocks falling currently are purely out of fear, company profits remain healthy as (far as we know) our economy.  Its the fear of a US recession that is leading to such a cautious market.


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## tronic72 (14 January 2008)

Yeah I tend to agree with you. But if you are that scared you shouldn't be in the market! Glad TOL is up 6% today.


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## waz (14 January 2008)

AIO is also up sharply today.

Is there something going on between the two companies.

Usually whaty is good for one is bad for the other.

Now what could be good for both companies?????

Suggestions, not much in the media today for the two most active stocks.


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## Muschu (30 March 2008)

Given the market plunger, the TOL SP seems to have held up OK this past few weeks and is presently wavering around the $10 mark.  I think it went as low as about $8.50. I wonder whether this is where it is destined to remain for quite some time or if there is significant upside to come during the year.  There are a number of strong buy recommnedations around.  I've been considering putting a toe in for a couple of months but obviously don't want to get burnt by another pull back under $9.
Any chartists or opinions out there who would like to comment?
Thanks


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## Muschu (14 April 2008)

Even given the Virgin announcement, is today's SP drop warranted?  Seems out of whack to me.
Comments please..


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## Tysonboss1 (14 April 2008)

Muschu said:


> Even given the Virgin announcement, is today's SP drop warranted?  Seems out of whack to me.
> Comments please..




Toll is Bleeding Hard today,...

I personally don't feel it is warranted so I have picked up a few more today.

The whole sharemarket has been acting strange for a few months now, with all this talk of global recession there is alot of over reacting going on.

In this market making short term trades can be extremly risky,....But picking up some bargains to hold on to has a good chance of turning a good profit over 2-3 years

In this market what I am doing is just fiding some good soild companies, reading everything I can about them, and then pick them up when I thnk the are cheap. 

I bought some Toll at $10 and I bought some more at $8.29, 

I honestly don't think this company has too much down side and am confident they will be trading at $15 again within 18months.


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## Tysonboss1 (14 April 2008)

Another thing to remeber is that tol has really low debt, so a short term down turn in virgin blue won't hurt them,...

And they have a great platorm fr growth at the moment.


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## Muschu (14 April 2008)

Tysonboss1 said:


> Another thing to remeber is that tol has really low debt, so a short term down turn in virgin blue won't hurt them,...
> 
> And they have a great platorm fr growth at the moment.




Let's see how we go.  Bought in at $8.05 with current day low $8.02.  Fingers crossed yet again.
Life is interesting.


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## Nicks (14 April 2008)

Tyson thank you, if you are going to guarantee them, then I will certainly buy some Toll Holdings shares.


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## Muschu (14 April 2008)

Nicks said:


> Tyson thank you, if you are going to guarantee them, then I will certainly buy some Toll Holdings shares.




Hi Nick
I don't quite get the reasoning behind the need for you to make that comment.  I didn't interpret the previous comment as being a "guarantee" at all.  
Regards
Rick


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## Tysonboss1 (14 April 2008)

Nicks said:


> Tyson thank you, if you are going to guarantee them, then I will certainly buy some Toll Holdings shares.




LOL,.... My guarantee is for descriptive puposes only, I'm not actually offering to guarantee your investment.


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## roland (14 April 2008)

wow, today wiped nearly 2 years of growth off the SP - pretty sad ... I remember selling out at a substantial loss at $13.90 last August.

Anyway, I'm back at $8.00 - let's see where to from here.


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## Tysonboss1 (14 April 2008)

roland said:


> wow, today wiped nearly 2 years of growth off the SP - pretty sad ... I remember selling out at a substantial loss at $13.90 last August.
> 
> Anyway, I'm back at $8.00 - let's see where to from here.




yep crazy times we are living in.

Nothing is certain in these markets except the madness of men at the moment,

I must admit this price is very tempting, I have been accumulating already, 

The gambler in me wants to go over weight in this stock, but I am trying to stay disciplined and stick to my long term investment strategy.


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## Nicks (18 April 2008)

Muschu said:


> Hi Nick
> I don't quite get the reasoning behind the need for you to make that comment.  I didn't interpret the previous comment as being a "guarantee" at all.
> Regards
> Rick




Thats because of two things:
1. It has been edited to remove the actual word guarantee. Its not even an interpretation, it was specifically stated.
2. You have no sense of humour, hence why you didnt get the reasoning (even Tyson did). Secondary to this is that it was a humourous way of reminding us all that choice of words can give a different interpretation of what we wanted to say.

Anyway as a long term huge fan of TOL myself I can't help but wonder if Mr Little has really stuffed this one up. He has really missed the boat on Virgin and he has had ample time to offload. Perhaps in his wise years he is slipping a bit. Anyway agree at this price it is a compelling long term blue chip investment. Lets hope Paul can work his magic that we all know he has and get this back on track.


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## Tysonboss1 (18 April 2008)

Nicks said:


> 2.
> 
> Secondary to this is that it was a humourous way of reminding us all that choice of words can give a different interpretation of what we wanted to say.
> 
> ...




Aggreed on both points,...

I am accumulating a position in this company because I am confident of a recovery,... It may not be a fast recovery though.

I have tamed the gambler in me, so I am not going to over weight though. Because I fell that the high fuel prices will be around for a while and that combined with the economic state means Virgin probally will continue to let the side down.

How ever Toll will still be profitable and once it can free up some equity in Virgin blue and it will be game on for growth.


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## Julia (18 April 2008)

I haven't been following TOL and was just prompted to look at it following the comments here.

What happened in June last year???


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## Muschu (18 April 2008)

Nicks said:


> Thats because of two things:
> 1. It has been edited to remove the actual word guarantee. Its not even an interpretation, it was specifically stated.
> 2. You have no sense of humour, hence why you didnt get the reasoning (even Tyson did). Secondary to this is that it was a humourous way of reminding us all that choice of words can give a different interpretation of what we wanted to say..




Just saw this and was about to smile until I realised that I don't have a sense of humour.  I do agree however that "choice of words can give a different interpretation of what we wanted to say".


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## Muschu (18 April 2008)

Muschu said:


> Just saw this and was about to smile until I realised that I don't have a sense of humour.  I do agree however that "choice of words can give a different interpretation of what we wanted to say".




After further thought, I'd just like to add one thing:  Nick, I don't set out to offend people.  Or I certainly hope I don't. And no doubt neither do you. I suspect the probability is that we have misinterpeted one another.  For my part I sincerely apologise if you viewed my initial response as offensive.
I recently said to a friend that PC correspondence, by its very nature, has limitations.  Maybe this is a case in point.
Enjoy your weekend.
Regards
Rick


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## Kuruk (18 April 2008)

It is interesting to see people can actually get some value from TOL.

From my experience using them in business they are an absolute disaster that I would never recommend.

Perhaps one day I too will finally get some value from them. :


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## Tysonboss1 (19 April 2008)

Kuruk said:


> It is interesting to see people can actually get some value from TOL.
> 
> From my experience using them in business they are an absolute disaster that I would never recommend.
> 
> Perhaps one day I too will finally get some value from them. :




I guess the same can be said for most big businesses, depending on who you talk to, Take the major banks for an example,...


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## Nicks (19 April 2008)

Muschu said:


> After further thought, I'd just like to add one thing:  Nick, I don't set out to offend people.  Or I certainly hope I don't. And no doubt neither do you. I suspect the probability is that we have misinterpeted one another.  For my part I sincerely apologise if you viewed my initial response as offensive.
> I recently said to a friend that PC correspondence, by its very nature, has limitations.  Maybe this is a case in point.
> Enjoy your weekend.
> Regards
> Rick




LOL not offended, you dont even need to apologise mate. It was all tounge in cheek (usually is with me).

Its all good. Its only when people get catty on forums like high school girls fighting or high school boys beating their chests that it gets annoying.

Back to the topic. TOL, hmmm im not sure about TOL anymore. Those who know me on this forum know that I have been a long time fan and holder of TOL. Looks good to me in the long term, but stagnant in the short term atm.


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## Nicks (19 April 2008)

Tysonboss1 said:


> I guess the same can be said for most big businesses, depending on who you talk to, Take the major banks for an example,...




Thats precisely the answer. You can add insurance companies, utilities, Telstra etc etc. Does that mean they arent a good business to invest in though..... Usually means a stable business that probably isnt going to give you supersonic growth (definition of Blue Chip??)


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## MRC & Co (19 April 2008)

How did you guys "value" TOL?

Why buy on a downtrend, why not wait for a bottom to be established?


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## Muschu (19 April 2008)

MRC & Co said:


> How did you guys "value" TOL?
> 
> Why buy on a downtrend, why not wait for a bottom to be established?




In all truth because I don't know enough, yet anyway, to be able to do that MRC.  May the day come!  I comfort myself with the thought that at least I bought at $8, not $14.


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## Tysonboss1 (19 April 2008)

MRC & Co said:


> How did you guys "value" TOL?
> 
> Why buy on a downtrend, why not wait for a bottom to be established?




most of the time you won't ever really know where the bottom is until it' past.

I am not a trader I just purchase stocks when ever I feel they are good value, If that means I somtimes buy in a bit early well that is probally offset by the times I have avoided buying to late.


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## MRC & Co (19 April 2008)

You never know when it is a bottom, but you definately know what a downtrend looks like, just look at the chart.  If it's falling, probably best to wait for it to at least flatten out.  That is my experience.  

How did you value TOL, intrinsic value equation?  And what was your valuation?  

I find it hard to value due to all the restructuring, hence why I have stayed out.  But I have done rather well trading it.


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## nick2fish (19 April 2008)

I think that tactic on buying on market over-reaction to one off company news announcements is becoming a reasonable fundamental play in these times. The bounce back to reality can reward with a gain of 5-10%. That is if you can get into stride quickly enough. Brambles is another pretty good example. I don't know squat about value metrics but my  is that Tol is good buying @$8.00.


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## questionall_42 (19 April 2008)

nick2fish said:


> I think that tactic on buying on market over-reaction to one off company news announcements is becoming a reasonable fundamental play in these times. The bounce back to reality can reward with a gain of 5-10%. That is if you can get into stride quickly enough. Brambles is another pretty good example. I don't know squat about value metrics but my  is that Tol is good buying @$8.00.




Very dangerous assumption - are you referring to great opportunities like ABC or CNP or Allco? When does the bounce back (of 5-10%) happen - days, weeks, months, years?


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## nick2fish (19 April 2008)

Lets just use these two examples of 2 separate trading days. Being an investor that relies on fundamentals I stay away from debt laden companies (exception being MQG)
UGL =  Disappoints with profit result down 23% end of day 17% (recovery on going)
BXB = Wal mart announcement  down 20% end of day 11%

Getting back to the thread topic I think TOL has been overslapped by investors given that sophisticated investors have been pricing TOL'S Virgin exposure for a couple of months now. Oh well time will tell  Cheers


----------



## MRC & Co (20 April 2008)

nick2fish said:


> I think that tactic on buying on market over-reaction to one off company news announcements is becoming a reasonable fundamental play in these times. The bounce back to reality can reward with a gain of 5-10%. That is if you can get into stride quickly enough. Brambles is another pretty good example. *I don't know squat about value metrics but my  is that Tol is good buying @$8.00*.




LOL at the bold part.

To the rest of it, as I have not looked at this in-depth, the TOL SP fell due to poor virgin results yeh, lead by an increase in the price of crude?  If so, how will TOL pick back up those profits?  Will Virgin pass these increased costs over to the consumers to maintain profit margins, will this affect demand for their services?  Any regression analysis done on this?  (i.e. increased costs of airfaires and the subsequent effect on demand?)

Lot of questions there to ask yourself before you should be buying on a bounce back to your own preconceived reality.


----------



## questionall_42 (21 April 2008)

nick2fish said:


> Lets just use these two examples of 2 separate trading days. Being an investor that relies on fundamentals I stay away from debt laden companies (exception being MQG)
> UGL =  Disappoints with profit result down 23% end of day 17% (recovery on going)
> BXB = Wal mart announcement  down 20% end of day 11%




So does that mean you are intraday trading and have the ability to pick the bottom in the day? Time-frames and investment horizons are obviously the key to all of this and without that clarity (and stop losses) it is an assumption without evidence. Maybe I have burned a few too many times with this idea which is why I warrant extreme caution for the proverbial bounceback. Good luck with TOL


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## Nicks (22 April 2008)

Regardnig the regression analysis - there is a high level of inelastic demand with flying and transport / logisitcs.

I really dont think its got to do with demand. Sure it will drop slightlly as some % of consumers in these two areas will be affected by price, but I think a majority will still demand trucking services and flying.

Regarding fuel costs - this well simply be passed on, as it will be for Toll's (and Virgin's) competitors.

Growth - well there is still plenty of room for logisitcs growth in the Australian and Asian market, and Mr Little is well aware of this. Plus he is one of the sharpest minds going around when it comes to growth.

*Bottom line - expect demand to remain and expect to see alot of organic growth with TOL over the next few years. Disappointing 'blip' at the moment which when you look at it provides an excellent entry point for those looking to add a stable growing large ASX listed company to the portfolio...... and remember - all the debt was spun off into Asciano. Mr Little is keeping plenty of reserves for his growth ambitions!*


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## MRC & Co (22 April 2008)

Nicks said:


> Regardnig the regression analysis - there is a high level of inelastic demand with flying and transport / logisitcs.
> 
> [/B]




True, however, if economic growth slows, and commodity prices (crude) continue to rise, demand could well flatten out and become more elastic.

Demand will be more elastic than the rest of it's business, as it is a luxury good, more adversely affected by changes in economic growth.  Further, a decent portion of Virgin marketshare would be taken up by those living closer to the poverty line, so economic growth would likely cause larger subsequent ramifications on Virgin demand as opposed to some of its more luxury rivals.

Just good to continue to monitor long-term investments, not simply stash and hope.  If fundamentals change, its time to change those long-termers.


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## MRC & Co (23 April 2008)

See the US Airlines getting smashed!  Crude price definately correlate strongly with their share prices.

On another note, looks like there could be accumulation of TOL taking place at the moment.


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## roland (24 April 2008)

Hey, what happened to TOL? Wasn't watching for 10 minutes, then when I came back, the depth had switched and the SP took off.


----------



## marklar (3 May 2008)

Nice to see TOL close above $8, the chart (attached) has a nice curved bottom since gapping down after the Virgin Blue announcement.





Will be interesting to see how the company goes after the BALtrans acquisition is bedded down, expansion into China is a good move IMHO.

m.


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## MRC & Co (6 May 2008)

MRC & Co said:


> On another note, looks like there could be accumulation of TOL taking place at the moment.




This accumulation has broken out.  

Confluence seen here with the strong accumulation creating a decent support base and the gap overhead 'needing' to be closed.  This gap close would also be a 50% retracement from the high to the low of the recent down wave, so this close should see some solid resistance and would probably be a good shorting opportunity or an opportunity to get out for those long.  

Cheers


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## roland (6 May 2008)

MRC & Co said:


> This accumulation has broken out.
> 
> Confluence seen here with the strong accumulation creating a decent support base and the gap overhead 'needing' to be closed.  This gap close would also be a 50% retracement from the high to the low of the recent down wave, so this close should see some solid resistance and would probably be a good shorting opportunity or an opportunity to get out for those long.
> 
> Cheers




I agree, without being technical, I bought at $8.00, sold today at $8.60 - gut feeling tells me to take profit and play another day 

Actually the resistance seemed a little more solid yesterday at $8.50


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## tigerboi (6 May 2008)

One more australian company mr little has always wanted over anything else...linfox..once he off loads virgin he will make a bid for linfox,current price about $1.1b...young fox wants to sell but the old man doesnt...tb..


----------



## MRC & Co (6 May 2008)

roland said:


> I agree, without being technical, I bought at $8.00, sold today at $8.60 - gut feeling tells me to take profit and play another day
> 
> Actually the resistance seemed a little more solid yesterday at $8.50




Well you never know, at least you took some profit, but I would have a target (though I don't like targets, gaps are one of the few trades I use them to gather some idea) here of around $9.30-$9.35.  Infact, in this instance I would sell if that target is reached, due to the confluence of strength at that resistance point as stated earlier.


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## marklar (6 May 2008)

tigerboi said:


> One more australian company mr little has always wanted over anything else...linfox..



Wonder if the ACCC would let him...?  Wonder what is planned for all that cash from the kiwi government? Perhaps this speculation is behind the share price bump??

I hold & wait patiently...

m.


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## Tysonboss1 (7 May 2008)

marklar said:


> Wonder if the ACCC would let him...?  Wonder what is planned for all that cash from the kiwi government? Perhaps this speculation is behind the share price bump??
> 
> I hold & wait patiently...
> 
> m.




I think toll have a whole heap of investment oportunities infront of them especially expanding overseas,.... it's just a matter of getting there hands on the funds at this stage,.... so the kiwi sale should help with that,...


----------



## tigerboi (7 May 2008)

marklar said:


> Wonder if the ACCC would let him...? Wonder what is planned for all that cash from the kiwi government? Perhaps this speculation is behind the share price bump??
> 
> I hold & wait patiently...
> 
> m.






Tysonboss1 said:


> I think toll have a whole heap of investment oportunities infront of them especially expanding overseas,.... it's just a matter of getting there hands on the funds at this stage,.... so the kiwi sale should help with that,...




Fellas take it as gospel, toll will make a bid for linfox,had virgin performed better, than it would be on the cards soon,as for the accc??linfox is a private company so i dont think it can be stopped?

As someone who works in the transport industry i was very disappointed when little took patricks(but as with finemores it was personal)as it was a poor buy simply because toll tried to get clever by taking ports & rail,look at AIO now...rubbish assets not worth .

Toll got away from what they are...trucking company,interstate freighters & instead of going to patricks he should of made lindsay fox an offer he couldnt refuse.

As to AIO getting hammered from $11.00 to $4.76 today thats not just because their assets are poor...get this..mac bank(the underbidder on the patricks deal) are screwing AIO real good as they will make a bid for AIO in the future...

Toll should have stuck to their bread n butter...trucks,still there is a few more listed transport companies they could have bought if they couldnt get linfox...k& s & scotts of mt gambier have the biggest fleet of b-doubles on the eastern seaboard...would be a good buy..right now...


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## tigerboi (7 May 2008)

Hot off the press...as i said toll should stick to what they know best...trucks,should apply for the job of which mob to buy next..tb






Australia's largest freight company, Toll Holdings, has acquired New Zealand's United Carriers trucking company after the suitor recently sold its rail and ferry operations in that country.

The transport operator said it had signed a conditional purchase agreement for the trucking business, which had an annual turnover of about $NZ50 million ($A41.7 million).

"United is a very complementary acquisition for Toll. It expands our existing businesses in New Zealand into Northland where our presence was previously limited," Toll managing director Paul Little said in a statement.

United Carriers has a fleet of 220 trucks and services a number of industries, including livestock, logging, warehousing and international freight forwarding.

Toll said it would fund the purchase through working capital.

The transport operator this week sold its New Zealand rail and ferry operations to the New Zealand government for $NZ665 million ($A554.26 million) to focus on its goods-forwarding business in Asia.


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## marklar (8 May 2008)

...and another one today...

"Toll Holdings, the Asian region’s leading provider of integrated transport and logistics services, has reached an agreement on the purchase of West Australian based Courier Australia. "

so they're vacuuming up the little 'uns while waiting to offload Virgin Blue, have to think there's something big in the pipeline though.

m.


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## tigerboi (8 May 2008)

As i said mate...linfox...put your house on it,littles crowning glory,very much like the rio bhp drama,like 2 heavyweights going 12 rounds...however that said toll does have some debt...tb


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## Muschu (9 May 2008)

Like many others I am trying to work out where TOL is heading.  Down today in an up-market?
OK - so is this progress or a misinterpretation?
If I look at a 1 month chart for TOL with an 18 day moving average [from the day after the Virgin announcement] then do we have a chart that is possibly suggesting an uptrend? [Or is this time frame too short?]
An SMA of 50 days gives quite a different chart....

Comments please.


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## explod (9 May 2008)

Muschu said:


> Like many others I am trying to work out where TOL is heading.  Down today in an up-market?
> OK - so is this progress or a misinterpretation?
> If I look at a 1 month chart for TOL with an 18 day moving average [from the day after the Virgin announcement] then do we have a chart that is possibly suggesting an uptrend? [Or is this time frame too short?]
> An SMA of 50 days gives quite a different chart....
> ...





If we average out the last two months on the chart we are going sideways at an average of about $8.50.     The volume gradually dropping over the last 3 weeks tells me this condition and pirce will stay till news or different factors come in fundamentally.   

The rising cost of oil could have a positive (for example) as TOL can move large quantities fairly economically.   But this part of the bottom line can take 12 months to be realised by the market.


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## oldblue (10 May 2008)

Toll did a very good deal in selling the NZ rail operations back to the NZ govt.
As part of the deal, Toll is keeping the profitable freight forwarding and road transport operation and is said to have kept its favourable terms with Rail in this regard. In addition, the NZ Govt has given Toll a 6 year rent free period on the property used by the ff and rt business. One commentator estimates this to be an effective subsidy of NZD 70m over the six years.


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## tigerboi (12 May 2008)

I dont hold any toll but the $8.50 price i believe is a bargain when you consider the cash now ready to take over more transport companies,if you go back to before the patricks takeover toll was around $14.00.

From someone who works in the industry & understands the workings of a trucking company,little would be circling a target now,that cash wont sit around on its own..for me $8.50 looking into the future with the cash from the nz deal & the sale of virgin in the next 12 months.

I get the feeling little will scoop up a few little fish now but hes got bigger fish to fry in the next 18 months.i think there is still at least 25% run still to come..up to $10.50-$10.75 by xmas...tb


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## oldblue (12 May 2008)

I don't hold TOL either and I'd also be keen on them at this price if it wasn't for the airline. I can see that holding back the SP - unless, of course, the shareholding can be offloaded.


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## Muschu (13 May 2008)

Hi
I'd be interested in any thoughts on the downward movement over the past few days.  The chart for the past month looks pretty ordinary.  Are we heading back to the $7.50 mark or thereabouts?
Regards
R


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## roland (13 May 2008)

In my opinion, anything sub $8.50 is an absolute bargain for TOL. I bought last week at $8.00 and sold at $8.60, back again today at $8.30.

AEGIS have a 12 month target of $11.38 with the current yield of 2.4% to an expected 2009F yield to be 3.0% and have the following Outlook commentary:


The earnings outlook for TOL is good, with high single-digit revenue growth and expanding margins through FY08 and FY09. TOL has made guidance for a payout ratio of approximately 40% and with interest cover in high double-digits, the dividend is not at risk. Earnings will be contingent on successful acquisitions, as we expect TOL to be a high-growth stock. We forecast high-single digit organic growth from its existing businesses over the near term.


I'll be hanging around with opportunistic short to medium term approach and will hold for longer term without worry if short term trading goes astray.


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## Muschu (13 May 2008)

roland said:


> In my opinion, anything sub $8.50 is an absolute bargain for TOL. I bought last week at $8.00 and sold at $8.60, back again today at $8.30.
> 
> AEGIS have a 12 month target of $11.38 with the current yield of 2.4% to an expected 2009F yield to be 3.0% and have the following Outlook commentary:
> 
> ...




Thanks Roland.  What do you think the place of charts is in your analysis? My novice view of the charts is that the stock looks ordinary.
Also: FNArena cites 4 analysts with a Buy on TOL and 4 with a Hold. All of these, bar one, were made in May.  The average Target Price is $9.91.

Be nice to "know" would it not? [To dream....]


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## roland (13 May 2008)

Muschu said:


> Thanks Roland.  What do you think the place of charts is in your analysis? My novice view of the charts is that the stock looks ordinary.
> Also: FNArena cites 4 analysts with a Buy on TOL and 4 with a Hold. All of these, bar one, were made in May.  The average Target Price is $9.91.
> 
> Be nice to "know" would it not? [To dream....]




Hi rick, I am not a chart analyst, but find them very interesting and have a lot of respect for people who use use charts in a technical manner. I use charts for a historical critique and for snapshotting the trend. I would never buy a stock without bringing up the chart.

Regarding your comment about the chart looking pretty ordinary, well it sort of depends on the time frame you are looking at - try expanding the chart to take in a couple of years, or decrease your time frame to 2 months. Without doing this myself right now for TOL, I am sure that each chart would give you a different perspective .... yes???? 

A pessimist would see a falling chart as a sign of weakness, an optimist would see the fall as an increasing chance to buy at a low. Depends on your outlook


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## MRC & Co (13 May 2008)

Looks to me like it found resistance at around 50% of the gap, not an unusual occurance.

Forming a flag formation now, which is bullish.  However, that being said, it is falling on higher volume (closing near the bottom today), whereas volume should be decreasing.

You would want this one to turn around ASAP, or it looks very bleak for TOL.  

Decent support around 7.50.  I will be keeping an eye on this one.


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## Muschu (14 May 2008)

MRC & Co said:


> Looks to me like it found resistance at around 50% of the gap, not an unusual occurance.
> 
> Forming a flag formation now, which is bullish.  However, that being said, it is falling on higher volume (closing near the bottom today), whereas volume should be decreasing.
> 
> ...




Sorry MRC but I am not familar enough with charts to know what a flag formation is.  If this is a bullish signal is it an indication that the SP may rise?  Or in fact do you mean the opposite -- that despite bullish signals the chart looks "bleak" and possibly on its way to $7.50 again?
Where is the point that is 50% of the gap?  Do you mean 50% of the gap between $7.50 and $8.50?
Too much to learn...
Regards
Rick


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## MRC & Co (14 May 2008)

Hi Ricky,

RE:  Flag formations  

http://www.incrediblecharts.com/technical/flags_and_pennants.php

50% of the gap from 9.35 to 8.50 (generally gaps are filled, however, if not, 50% of the gap being filled is the second most probable scenario).  Not, to the cent, but relatively close.  

This flag formation, as the flag tilts down following the upward flagpole (however, some argue the tilt of the flag does not matter), is bullish.

However, this flag is becoming too large now, following such a short flag pole.  The point of the flag is simply a breather from a previous run and this appears an ultra long breather, considering the run up (flag pole) was not that great.

Further, volume generally decreases as the flag grows, signalling a lack of sellers left before the next run continues.  This happened at first, but has since begun increasing again.  

For the reasons above, you would want this pattern to break to the upside quickly (you would want to see it breakout of it's current trend channel and on high volume), or it could well test 7.50 again.

Of course, none of this is at all set in stone, just a T/A perspective, which is wrong numerous times, only provides something to trade and a place to buy, decide your position size and set exits.  

Another thing to note, is it has hit the 50% fib level of it's previous run today.  That is, half way between 7.49 and 8.69.  Again, fib levels are something I am not completely comfortable with yet and still testing (not sure their relevance, considering there are numerous of them and price generally bounces, resists somewhere around them)......

Of course, this could also be a wave 2 if you are EW inclinded (something I am yet to beleive in).

Just a few thoughts.

Cheers


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## tigerboi (14 May 2008)

tigerboi said:


> I dont hold any toll but the $8.50 price i believe is a bargain when you consider the cash now ready to take over more transport companies,if you go back to before the patricks takeover toll was around $14.00.
> 
> I get the feeling little will scoop up a few little fish now but hes got bigger fish to fry in the next 18 months.i think there is still at least 25% run still to come..up to $10.50-$10.75 by xmas...tb






roland said:


> In my opinion, anything sub $8.50 is an absolute bargain for TOL. I bought last week at $8.00 and sold at $8.60, back again today at $8.30.




For me the charts are a good tool but they dont tell you things like how toll is cashed up & circling for more take overs,the courier buy out is earnings positive in the first year,they are the expected buy outs until virgin is offloaded then together with the cash from the nz sale...kapow...linfox the jewel in the crown

Today toll is around $8.25..gee thats a real good price & theres talk of seeing $7.50 again??i dont think you will see sub $8.00 but if you do i would be jumping all over it...i see it says aegis has a 12 month target of $11.38,i said $10.50-$10.75 by xmas..i reckon my experience in this industry will get me about spot on..

$8.25 & cashed up again..very tempting to offload a few of my own to get in at $8.00-$8.50,reckon the retrace from $8.50 is a few profit takers that may have spooked a few..$8.28 atm..still say $10.75 by xmas...tb


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## MRC & Co (14 May 2008)

That is all well and good TB, but how do you judge the intrinsic value of TOL?  

Any company can be cashed up and making takeovers, however, does this determine SP?  Not at all.

You have to put it into context of all the F/A information.

Like I heard a guy saying how is a company falling when it is earning billions?  Failed to even look at shares on issue.  Just a very simple example.  But you definately need to put all this information, its risk, future earnings projects, along with its current book and ROE into context of an equation if you are going to decide values in F/A!  You can also look at management, branding etc, but this is very hard to measure and is usually reflected in projections/risk.

Cheers


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## tigerboi (14 May 2008)

Thats true as well & my value is greater than $8.00 based on my actual experience in that particular industry...for paul little cash means buying up more companies re:scooped up 2 before the ink was dry on the nz deal...

Toll is $8.00 plus & will buy linfox for about $1.1m once the virgin stake is offloaded thats were im coming from...longer term.. not buying at $8.00 & selling at $8.60...chicken feed..im talking about value of an $8.00-$8.50 company & what it will be when they buy linfox??$14-$16??

think about toll from a longer term..

linfox:

revenue:$2.2b(approx)...toll:$9b

staff:16,000...toll:35,000

fleet:5,000...toll:10,000..approx

sites:260...toll:650

airports:2

armored vehicles:500..toll:none

wharehouse space:1.8m square metres..toll:3m sq

countries:11...toll:44

Linfox has some assets that paul little wants:

avalon airport,armoured guard,the woolworths contracts back,the parkes intermodal facility...

the rail hub for australia where you can double stack containers...having said that if he can get linfox for around $1.1 to $1.2b he will have done real good as the asking price was believed to be $980m before the recent buy outs of westgate,provinical,plus the new woolies contracts would see any offer around the $1.2b...

tolls value to me at $8.00-$8.50 is very good value,if it saw $7.50 again i wouldnt panic..just buy more...longer term with more takeovers to come in the next 18 months...great value...tb


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## roland (14 May 2008)

A bit of a drop off this afternoon in SP. Thought I would throw an order in amongst the 103 thousand sitting there at $8.00.


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## nick2fish (14 May 2008)

tigerboi said:


> tolls value to me at $8.00-$8.50 is very good value,if it saw $7.50 again i wouldnt panic..just buy more...longer term with more takeovers to come in the next 18 months...great value...tb




Totally agree tigerboi, but my fundamental analysis is not as detailed as yours on the lin-fox thing (thanks). My thinking is that the market is undervaluing the Asian expansion potential. Cheers for that.


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## tigerboi (14 May 2008)

roland said:


> A bit of a drop off this afternoon in SP. Thought I would throw an order in amongst the 103 thousand sitting there at $8.00.




yep you did the right thing there mate,$8.00 atm seems like a very good price.i believe toll will sell the virgin stake back to branson & use that money to buy linfox...

The latest toll-virgin news...tol has 659,083,770 vba shares..worth $524m

*ASX RELEASE*
*UPDATE ON VIRGIN BLUE INVESTMENT AND 2008 OUTLOOK*
As previously advised to the market, the Virgin Blue Board of Directors had appointed
Goldman Sachs JBWere to advise on options to unlock shareholder value. The review
included transactions which could substantially reduce the level of Toll’s investment in
the company.
Given the current adverse market conditions the Virgin Blue Board has concluded that
expressions of interest in the company do not reflect the underlying value of the
business, Toll agrees with this conclusion.
Toll Holdings Managing Director, Mr Paul Little said, “whilst our clear strategy is to
reduce our investment in Virgin Blue in order to focus on our core logistics operations,
the timing and value for our shareholders is paramount, and disposal in the current
markets would not be in the interests of Toll shareholders”.
Toll proposes working with Virgin Blue management to continue to enhance the value of
the business and to unlock Toll shareholder value.
Virgin Blue has today also advised the market that trading conditions have deteriorated
significantly in the second half of the financial year, with the company now based on
current conditions, forecasting profit after tax not to exceed $140 million for the year
excluding development costs on new initiatives of $40 million, compared to the prior year
result of $216 million.
The reduction in Virgin Blue forecast earnings will have a direct impact on the Toll Group
reported earnings as a result of Toll consolidating its 62.8% interest.
In relation to the current trading and outlook for Toll’s core Transport and Logistics
business, Mr Little said “current trading is strong and in line with our plans, with both
earnings and cashflows performing well”.
“The diversification of our revenue base, strong cost control and solid organic growth
rates across our business, will continue to protect the company from any marked
economic downturn in the Asia-Pacific region. In particular we are very pleased with the
rate of progress in integrating the recently acquired BALtrans business” said Mr Little.
With the growth experienced across the region and strength of its balance sheet, Toll is
excellently positioned to take advantage of further growth opportunities in the industry.
The timing of reducing the Virgin Blue investment will not impact the company’s ability to​pursue and execute further value adding opportunities.

it was worth..$1.6b...lost $1.1b...could have bought linfox had it been sold last year..as i said toll got way above their heads with the patricks deal...

virgin should have been sold as a part of the deal,now look at virgin with fuel closer to $2 than $1...virgin is sub 90c..reckon they look way cheap considering toll wont get $2.50 a share...branson looks likely to get the 62% stake back very cheaply...toll originally offered the 62% at $1.40 to branson,then reneged as it went to $2.50 now its 0.795c a share...that $1.40 for virgin looks good now...

See the dumb play was virgin..net profit this year expected..$140m
last year...$216m

linfox net profit will be approx..$200-$220

tol.$8.15

8.150-0.060
-0.731%318436527678.2508.3708.2108.150


vba.$0.795...


0.795-0.005
-0.625%8415611030.8000.8000.8000.790


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## MRC & Co (14 May 2008)

TB, it's good to see you really breaking down the company, however again, it does not put it into context of the overall F/A value.

What is your forecast for this as far as EPS over the forward years IF these takeovers and divestments take place (a target)?  Is the sale of Virgin and aquisition of Linfox a given or just heresay?

I can say ABS took over numerous centres, rapid expansion, creating synergies and filling a void in a growing demographic, does not mean a thing when you put it into context.  

Hence, why I do not see it remotely possible to value a company without running an intrinsic value equation, putting in the factors and coming out with a specific valuation range.  

Looking very quickly at the balance sheet, profit expectation of a few hundred million?  Not large in comparison to equity of over 3 billion and a book of just over 5?  Huge available cash, but also quiet some debt.  As at end of financial year 2007.  Have not looked at it's latest report, but cannot imagine too much has changed........

Just by looking at those figures, I would say overvalued.  However, once again, a company which is liked, can trade much higher than fair valuation, even above twice as high, though not for a sustained period of time.

Just a few alternative thoughts on the F/A side of things.  Must say, a dynamic company and hard to value.


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## Muschu (14 May 2008)

"ASX RELEASE
UPDATE ON VIRGIN BLUE INVESTMENT AND 2008 OUTLOOK"

What was the date of this release please?

thanks


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## Muschu (22 May 2008)

Hmmm.. TOL is certainly taking a beating today. As I type AIO is down 2.7%
and TOL 4.8%.  Now not far above its 12 month low.  Shame.


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## tigerboi (22 May 2008)

*Re:TOLL POTENTIAL GROWTH IN ASIA..MASSIVE!*



tigerboi said:


> Today toll is around $8.25..gee thats a real good price & theres talk of seeing $7.50 again??i dont think you will see sub $8.00 but if you do i would be jumping all over it...i see it says aegis has a 12 month target of $11.38,i said $10.50-$10.75 by xmas..i reckon my experience in this industry will get me about spot on..




A low today of $7.56...great value..closed at $7.64..



tigerboi said:


> think about toll from a longer term..
> 
> linfox:
> 
> ...






nick2fish said:


> Totally agree tigerboi, but my fundamental analysis is not as detailed as yours on the lin-fox thing (thanks). My thinking is that the market is undervaluing the Asian expansion potential. Cheers for that.






tigerboi said:


> yep you did the right thing there mate,$8.00 atm seems like a very good price.i believe toll will sell the virgin stake back to branson & use that money to buy linfox...
> 
> it was worth..$1.6b...lost $1.1b...could have bought linfox had it been sold last year..as i said toll got way above their heads with the patricks deal...
> 
> ...




Firstly MRC &CO best not compare ABS with TOLL.....very different management in every aspect of the companies.paul little took the basket case of the transport industry..IPEC & made it profitable for the first time in many many years.if its eps you want then YT is the man to go to.(1/2 year..37c)if you get full year at 75c,thats 10% at around todays $7.50..

Onto linfox,toll will buy linfox & its only a matter of when paul little gets the cash to do so,as for linfox only making a few hundred million a year & lets say at the $1.2b going price,on paper it will be 5 years before TOL make money?

However Paul little will make linfox & its assets much more profitable than the present private management,there are some very good assets such as the airports that paul little will make very good money spinners.

You will find despite the future virgin sell off,the private airports will see a huge increase in TOLLS air freight business...

Tolls asia business is a sleeping giant when you consider their 1/2 yearly revenue was only $376m,linfox yearly reveune is about $2.2b...also they have a presence in asia that would give toll the growth in asia it needs.

When you think about it,$376m for the half in asia leaves a massive hole there for revenue growth.as nickfish said:they are undervalued in asia & the revenue shows that,had virgin been sold on the patricks deal then linfox bought you would now have a much larger asian footprint with the prospect of huge growth..tb


re:this anns was last july..



*Airfreight fleet for Toll *

Unveiled at Brisbane airport, Toll Holdings’ new dedicated air fleet includes three Boeing 737-300F and two ATR42 aircraft.The company says the new planes, together with its 50 charter aircraft, would provide a key platform for freighter services.
A significant milestone for Toll, the agreement brings together the vital core components required to provide a seamless efficient air-freight network. 

According to CEO Paul Little, Toll now has the capability to provide efficient and competitive air line-haul services to support the growth in the air express market. 

“We expect the business to grow strongly," he says. 

In addition, Toll and discount carrier Virgin Blue, in which Toll has the majority stake, have agreed to enter into a long-term deal for the provision of freight capacity on the Virgin Blue fleet. 

"This agreement enables Toll to secure important belly space capacity and operational management throughout the Virgin Blue network, whilst providing Virgin Blue with a strong revenue stream anticipated to grow rapidly," Little says.


----------



## SGB (22 May 2008)

*Re: TOLL POTENTIAL GROWTH IN ASIA..MASSIVE!*



tigerboi said:


> A low today of $7.56...great value..closed at $7.64..






Hi TB,

I don't own the stock nor do I know the fundamentals of TOLL, I actually trade this stock, but I can't help but comment on your $7.56 value price.(and please don't take this as being rude or aggressive, I can only see what I see.)

Firstly, the long term trend is down... dont fight it.
Secondly, it just got belted down through a Major Support area around $ 8.00 and its next Major Support area is around $6.00 where it began its Long Term bull run at the beginning of 2003 and 2006.
If there isn't any positive news or fundamental aspect to get it bullish again it might struggle to get through $ 8.00 again in the short term.
I hope it does   go up again for long term investors because as I mentioned I'll trade this stock whichever direction it chooses to go.

Just be careful 

SGB


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## MRC & Co (22 May 2008)

SGB, you may wish to point out that next support level of $6.00 is long-term support and a fib retracement (is 100% still a retracement, more like a complete wipeout)!.  

There is still some short-term support at $7.50, where accumulation was seen last time it reached the same level.  

You should also note that a decent amount of volume came in today and it did not close on it's low.


----------



## SGB (22 May 2008)

MRC & Co said:


> SGB, you may wish to point out that next support level of $6.00 is long-term support and a fib retracement (is 100% still a retracement, more like a complete wipeout)!.
> 
> There is still some short-term support at $7.50, where accumulation was seen last time it reached the same level.
> 
> You should also note that a decent amount of volume came in today and it did not close on it's low.




Yer, MRC & Co,
point taken, should have mentioned it was a Monthly ( Major ) Chart.

Looking at the Daily Chart though, biggest volumn in 25 days and lost over 5% today. It does need to hold onto 7.50.

SGB


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## Muschu (22 May 2008)

*Re: TOLL POTENTIAL GROWTH IN ASIA..MASSIVE!*



SGB said:


> Firstly, the long term trend is down... dont fight it....
> If there isn't any positive news or fundamental aspect to get it bullish again it might struggle to get through $ 8.00 again in the short term...."
> SGB




Thanks SGB.  I bought this stock on its last downturn and could have made a good profit a short time ago.  I checked the chart and was concerned at what I saw - but decided to ignore a nagging tendency to sell -- hoping that fundamentals will come through.  
I'm not a short term trader.  This seems to be a massive company with quite reasonable debt.  
What to do? [Rhetorical question]....


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## MRC & Co (22 May 2008)

Agreed SGB, I am looking for more accumulation to come in at these levels and some consolidation or a pattern.  I then, may consider a long if there is a breakout.

If there is a breakdown and some momentum, definately a short is the goer.  

Interesting times on the TOL chart.

Such risk at the moment for those long-term investors.  

If the market slides back down to the early 5000s once more, I think $6 looks likely for TOL.


----------



## SGB (26 May 2008)

Muschu said:


> I am not familar enough with charts to know what a flag formation is.  If this is a bullish signal is it an indication that the SP may rise?  Too much to learn...
> Regards
> Rick




Hi Rick,

Here is some more analysis to try to give you more meaning to charts.( Very basic)

Have a look at this chart and try and spot the types of price patterns that are occurring. At this early stage don't try and predict that it might go up, instead look at what is happening now.

If you go back to the Monthly chart I posted you'll see where I have set the Fibonacci Retracement parameters. Also used in this Daily Chart.

The patterns are :

Support         50%
Resistance   38.2%
Support         61.8%
Resistance     50%
Support        78.6%
Expected Resistance 61.8%. Stopped by channel

The channel that has formed confims only a continuation pattern (Price formations that imply a pause or consolidation in the prevaling trend) when the Fib support was met. But this support later turned into resistance. Hence the channel formation.

To validate an impending trend reversal, firstly the price must breakout above the upper trendline channel and hold that support, as this upper trendline, in this moment, is the important one.

There are many other variables, but I would expect there will be extra strong support @ the 6.00 mark( if it happens to arrive there), providing eveyone agrees that the fundamentals are that strong.

SGB


----------



## Muschu (26 May 2008)

SGB said:


> Hi Rick,
> 
> Here is some more analysis to try to give you more meaning to charts.( Very basic)
> 
> Have a look at this chart and try and spot the types of price patterns that are occurring. At this early stage don't try and predict that it might go up, instead look at what is happening now.....SGB




Thanks SGB.  I printed this out and tried to follow it and can see what you mean [I think].  
Is it _unfair / fair _ to use a different timeframe or is there a "recommended" period?  For example, if you read / analyse the chart from mid-April, or after TOL made their Virgin announcement, then do you get a different analytical outcome?  Or is this non-TA think?  [I suspect it is].

Good stuff.

Rick


----------



## SGB (27 May 2008)

Muschu said:


> Thanks SGB.  I printed this out and tried to follow it and can see what you mean [I think].





Good stuff.

Rick[/QUOTE]

Hi Rick,

As mentioned in a previous post, I am a trader,I trade for a living so I need constant cashflow.Therefore my whole analysis is based on T/A, pure price patterns and behaviours in the very short term. Basiclly my time frame is a Daily Chart. 

After reading the posts on this page of the thread,and this stock is one that I trade, I had a hunch that the majority of interested posters were more inclined to be fundamental  longterm investers and therefore I posted the Monthly longterm chart to give a better insight of the possibilities/probabilities and how value is interpreted.



Muschu said:


> Is it _unfair / fair _ to use a different timeframe or is there a "recommended" period?  For example, if you read / analyse the chart from mid-April, or after TOL made their Virgin announcement, then do you get a different analytical outcome?  Or is this non-TA think?  [I suspect it is].




To a trader (short term)value means nothing and announcements will only change price action in that moment( the here and now).Therefore a trader will *adapt proactivlely *to any price action change that may have occurred after the announcement was made.

Whereas an invester (fundamental longer timeframe), value is a key element for their investment over a longer period of time and the announcement may have an impact over their strategic decision, wether positive or negative.

But you also must remember that all stocks are dealt with emotional reaction. Everyone ( investers) must agree that the news will be positive in the longer term for a higher price.

Therefore to answer your question,







> unfair/fair[QUOTE/],
> 
> 
> 
> ...


----------



## tigerboi (27 May 2008)

*Re:FREIGHT TASK TO DOUBLE BY 2020*



SGB said:


> Hi TB,
> 
> I don't own the stock nor do I know the fundamentals of TOLL, I actually trade this stock, but I can't help but comment on your $7.56 value price.(and please don't take this as being rude or aggressive, I can only see what I see.)
> 
> ...




i dont own any either but when i say i think around $7.50 is good value as someone who works in the industry i know what a great stock tol is long long term...know this by 2020 the freight task is set to double from current levels.

i havent looked lately at the price but it does seem its getting screwed real good as the fuel price surges(surely thats gotta be a short soon)as i said if it got lower then if you own then its a good time to average down..

i have said the patricks deal was a big mistake by toll trying to be too big headed instead of sticking to trucks,look at the virgin stake now not worth...could have bought some really good transport companies with only about half the 6b they paid for patricks..

the 2 toll should have bought are linfox & k&s(ksc) plus its half owners other company scotts of mt gambier(biggest b/double fleet on the eastern seaboard)...tb

k&s are only small BUT a new container park is being built next to their sydney yard soon.(they are like a division of scotts(private)..)

i understand were you come from on a short term trading basis whereas myself for toll i look at it as a very long term whether its $7.50 or $6.00..
cheers tb



http://www.linfox.com/linfox

http://www.ksgroup.com.au/corp/


----------



## SGB (27 May 2008)

*Re: FREIGHT TASK TO DOUBLE BY 2020*



tigerboi said:


> i dont own any either but when i say i think around $7.50 is good value as someone who works in the industry i know what a great stock tol is long long term...know this by 2020 the freight task is set to double from current levels.
> 
> i havent looked lately at the price but it does seem its getting screwed real good as the fuel price surges(surely thats gotta be a short soon)as i said if it got lower then if you own then its a good time to average down..
> 
> ...




Hi TB

I have started reading the last few pages and have to say you do a good job in your fundamental analysis. There are aspects of the company I never knew about which has given me some insite to what the company is about.

Thats the beauty of feedback.. everyone gets to acknowledge what they didn't know, which is called learning.

Keep up the good work.

SGB


----------



## tigerboi (6 June 2008)

*Re:I WORK IN THE TRANSPORT INDUSTRY*

I have a good insight i believe into this sector as i work at the pointy end,the truck...i was just reading KSC half yearly report today,21% profit on revenue of $200m,only a small company but its growing all the time,very well run.these are the type of bolt ons TOLL need not pie in the sky airlines/ports.

As ive said before TOLL has always been an interstate linehaul company with these days many divisions,general,cars,tankers,wharehouses,couriers,nqx..
little should of just kept rolling up the transport companies...imagine what TOLL couldve of done with linfox,synergies of hundreds of millions.that was a very big miss that...patricks with its rubbish AIO assets worth.

anyway i see TOL still around the $7.25 mark today holding well...wont be long before TOL buys a few more companies...tb


TOLL,TRIPLE AT PARDOO


----------



## tigerboi (8 June 2008)

*Re:TOLL READY TO POUNCE ON DESPERATE OPERATORS BLEEDING DUE TO THE FUEL PRICE*

Toll looked over scotts/pure when abn amro bought them,paul little was right about this type of freight...no value,fridge transport has extra fuel usage as the fridge motors run on diesel as well,plus there is a lot of double handling & most drivers hate pulling fridge vans(too noisy if you are doing interstate & if the highway is closed you cant get a sleep).toll took over refridgerated roadways some years ago but only for the trucks,toll only do fridge work in 3pl 3rd party logistics...no money in it...

This week has seen a few more companies fold due to the fuel price,scotts/pure the biggest,howard haulage,nikitaras tpt...i expect toll to take advantage of a few of these who need to sell off their fleets..

AWesfarmers consortium recently took over bunkers freightlines including 4 other carriers,that buy out has been the talk of the industry as bunkers only sub contract so only the trucks not any work is what wes.get...

If you look at how virgin & asciano($71m loss this half) are going atm you can see why i think toll lost direction instead of sticking to what it always has been good at trucks/transport...instead of those buys toll sould have focused on 2 companies...linfox which ive showed would be going real well.plus tnt.

toll could have bought tnt & linfox for around the same price or less for the $6b paid for patricks,now if you look at asciano which comprises pac nat railways & patricks ports they where poor performing assets before the buy out,the rail assets have capacity restraints in the hunter valley coal haulage areas.

with virgin getting slammed i expected toll to see sub $7.00 & possibly $6.00 as suggested here recently,so for toll to hold around $7.00-$7.25,tells me more anns.on aquistions are on the way...

linfox has been in china since 1984...

tnt would have given toll a huge base in europe.

tnt is originally an aussie transport company,taken over by the dutch mail company,tnt is listed on the nyse(tnt)has a market cap of$3.5b...us.
...tb

or maybe:http://www.startrackexpress.com.au/


Forensic accountant KordaMentha has been appointed receiver and manager to the Cold Chain haulage and storage business of transport company, Pure Logistics, with a view to selling the business as a going concern.
Cold Chain operates a national temperature-controlled haulage and storage business for frozen and chilled goods.
KordaMentha said secured lenders had appointed the firm receivers after working with Cold Chain for an extended period to resolve the company's difficulties.
KordaMentha representative Janna Robertson said the primary aim of the administration was to sell the business as a going concern and Cold Chain would continue to operate, while expressions of interest were being sought.
"We are in discussions with a number of interested parties," she said.
"Our priorities are ensuring an orderly transition of the customers and employees to a buyer who is able to ensure continuity of service to customers and continuity of employment."
The Cold Chain division employs about 360 people, and about 100 contractors.
Ms Robertson said the priority entitlements of workers were secure and would be paid as per normal, while subcontractors would be paid for their work "in the ordinary course of business".
The operations of McColls, a related transport and logistics company which has operated under the Pure Logistics brand, are unaffected, KordaMentha said



tnt 1st quarter report 2008 & PRESENTATION:http://group.tnt.com/images/20080326_tnt_corporate_information_tcm31-299116.pdf


----------



## So_Cynical (8 June 2008)

Hey TB and others

Anyone know whats Tolls position RE: the upcoming Carbon trading scheme.

Depending on the final rules...Toll and all the transport operators will be very
exposed to downside risk if they fail to adapt to the new business conditions.

Has Toll done anything to lessen the downside risks?


----------



## tigerboi (8 June 2008)

*Re:CARBON TRADING..WHAT A RORT.*



So_Cynical said:


> Hey TB and others
> 
> Anyone know whats Tolls position RE: the upcoming Carbon trading scheme.
> 
> ...





What a rort this carbon trading is...just another excuse for knobs like al gore to make money...

yep real good idea... we fail to meet outrageous targets so we end up paying compo to countries that have run their industries into the ground..re:ex soviet bloc countries...tb

go to the website...the way the price of fuel is going,the greenies will get their way soon as we go back to the dark ages.

dont burn coal...use candles
dont drive cars & trucks...ride a bike(ever seen a bike carry 34 pallets?)

go down to the sea & piss in it...theres australias contribution to the greenhouse pollution dribble...

wake up this is garbage


----------



## SGB (12 June 2008)

Chart Update.

With higher oil prices that are still pressuring logistic operations we still continue to see a drawdown in TOL’s price action.

As pointed out in a previous post the upper channel line continues to be strong resistance if you are in a long position. On the other hand it represents support for a short position. I have included on the chart, swing positioning, where by swing traders are likely to enter or add to their positions. (just some learning insight)

So where to now?

If oil prices continue to rise it would seem logical that $6.00 is a primary target area. 

The 2 major signs for a reversal to the long side are:

A breakout above the channel line and
Demand to overbalance Supply, which is the opposite now.

SGB


----------



## SGB (4 July 2008)

Chart Update


The break out of the channel has finally been revealed in today’s action.

As previously put forward in previous posts a price target of $6.00 and 100% retracement from the lows of 2006 has finally been reached, or there abouts,  which in turn made some fairly hefty gains today on increasing volume.
 A much better sign than previous months especially when oil also made gains overnight. 

So where to now?
Is it time for a correction in oil? 

If this is a real sustainable move and not just another continuation pattern, higher highs with higher lows will now have to be formed over the coming months. Will also be on the lookout for any other patterns that form, which may include double bottoms, inverted head and shoulders, triangles, rectangles, to name a few, to confirm any true trend reversal.

Another good signal is a confirming price target over $7.00 and then turning the $8.00 resistant barrier into support.

But the biggest concerns though, that could send the price lower, are the  projections that are being placed on oil prices at the moment.

Still....watching with interest.

Any other thoughts?

SGB


----------



## So_Cynical (4 July 2008)

All the down side risks are still there.


Impact of carbon trading.
Margins squeezed by fuel prices.
Economic slow down 
Market sentiment

So its not hard to make a case for further SP falls....still on the upside all 
transport operators are in the same boat (truck ) so TOL as a market 
leader is in a better position to weather the storm and come out on top.

Last week In the Industrial park where i work, a small transport company (10 trucks) 
went under and called in the receivers....as the slowdown continues, its the small 
players that will fold and the big operators left to carry on.


----------



## SGB (12 August 2008)

So_Cynical said:


> All the down side risks are still there.
> 
> 
> Impact of carbon trading.
> ...





I hope you covered your shorts. :.... for the short term at least.

Chart recoverying a bit now with an uptrend trading channel formation.


----------



## tigerboi (24 August 2008)

*Re: TOL to takeover EXTRA transport*

As ive reported elsewhere toll is working on the buy out of extra transport in melbourne,big container mob...tb

http://www.extratransport.com.au/public/?


----------



## shmi (24 August 2008)

Do you have any further info on this by anychance as in a time frame and costs, likely hood of it actually happening ect 


Thanks mate.


----------



## marklar (24 August 2008)

shmi said:


> Do you have any further info on this by anychance as in a time frame and costs, likely hood of it actually happening ect






> Copyright 2003 Toll Transport Pty Ltd Trading as Extra Transport Group Pty Ltd




Looks like it's already done...? Although I suspect the copyright date is Extra's and not Toll's 

m.


----------



## tigerboi (10 September 2008)

*Re: TOL-back to $7.50*

I see toll back to the $7.50 level i spoke about some months ago,watched closely as the bad news of the $700m loss loomed & punters sent it down to $5.90,what a sensational buy it was at that price for very long termers like myself,as predicted the virgin stake was off loaded & now there is nothing to hold it back.

Still waiting on more news in regards to the extra takeover & i expect a few more buy outs after xmas.as for asciano my mate that works there says they are just running it into the ground,AIO wont spend any money...straddle breaks down?park it over there & it doesnt get fixed.

...tb


----------



## Naked shorts (11 September 2008)

Why dont they deliver to P.O. Boxes.... its stupid that they dont. They are keeping a major competitor alive "Australian Air Express" by not doing anything about it.


----------



## SGB (12 September 2008)

*Re: TOL-back to $7.50*



tigerboi said:


> I see toll back to the $7.50 level i spoke about some months ago,watched closely as the bad news of the $700m loss loomed & punters sent it down to $5.90,what a sensational buy it was at that price for very long termers like myself,as predicted the virgin stake was off loaded & now there is nothing to hold it back.
> 
> 
> 
> ...tb




Yer,,,, Nice call TB.

I hope you picked some up at that bargain price. 

Good luck with it.

SGB


----------



## Nicks (13 September 2008)

At the end of the day a good company and a well run company is still a good company and a well run company, despite a fear market. Investors should (and possibly are) be running to companies like TOLL.

Good company = good debt levels, high barriers to entry, good strategic position (largest in Aus), low elasticity of consumer demand, high organic growth available, and probably one of the best CEOs going around.


----------



## tigerboi (18 September 2008)

*Re: TOL-back to $7.50*



SGB said:


> Yer,,,, Nice call TB.
> 
> I hope you picked some up at that bargain price.
> 
> ...




i see toll today rip back to $7.00 still a great buy at that price but with them panic sellers id love it to see $6.00 again & if it does ill do my best to get on the sub list!ive predicted the xjo to see the 3 year low of around 4400 so ill just wait again for some more $6.00 or less?...got a feeling $6.50 might be its low but i can hope.

standby for more toll aquistions soon...tb


----------



## tigerboi (21 November 2008)

*Re: TOL back to $5.50 ish*

hi maklar mate hows it going? see toll back around $5.50 ish,great price imo.
with fuel heading lower toll will benefit from that,just wonder with asciano looking likely to be broken up with the road transport divisions maybe going to linfox,would toll be allowed to take some of ascianos distressed assets?accc??

i say that as in times like these its when the chief man little loves to scoop up the bargains,maybe a few over in cuzzy bro land?

tell you a transport company that does it good,SCT i was down at their altona depot 3 weeks ago,the trump mr smith just bought 5 new trains & he runs 5,000 tonnes a trip over to perth,reckon its a super monster in the making as the freight cars he uses gives him big effeccencies,he can load all his freight from the side with the forks able to drive in whereas everyone else has all their freight in a container.good fit for toll sct would be...tb

check it out mark...http://sct.net.au/


----------



## Julia (9 December 2008)

Did anyone see Paul Little (CEO) featured on the 7.30 Report this evening?
It was a segment on the massive payouts to executives in direct contradiction of shareholder voting, and in the face of the  large drop in share prices.

Mr Little displayed an arrogance and dismissiveness that I've not seen before.

Will never buy shares in TOL after that little exhibition, regardless of what the SP does, ever.


----------



## robert toms (10 December 2008)

Yes I did Julia....and I concur with your views...not a good look!
Little obviously feels very secure.Pride cometh before the fall !


----------



## tigerboi (10 December 2008)

*Re: TOLL-mr paul "dont ask about my pay"little.*



Julia said:


> Did anyone see Paul Little (CEO) featured on the 7.30 Report this evening?
> It was a segment on the massive payouts to executives in direct contradiction of shareholder voting, and in the face of the large drop in share prices.
> 
> Mr Little displayed an arrogance and dismissiveness that I've not seen before.
> ...




Yes julia i noticed it with great interest mr littles arrogance about his enormous pay...he is well known in the transport industry for this behaviour...

sitting behind a toll trailer coming home from brissie last month someone had scribbled on the back...
toll driver care factor 0%

however ill give him this,hes turned toll from an initial investment of $1.5m to around a $4.3b transport monster & there will be more toll takeovers in the coming months...tb


----------



## investorpaul (30 July 2009)

Wow,

I cant believe this stock hasn't had any entries since Dec 2008.

Any way, I entered this stock at $6.60, after it broke above $6.50. (I got in a little late because I was away from the computer - I really should look at utilising limit orders). It also set a higher low at approx $6.80-$6.90 confirming the uptrend.

The min price target for me is its previous high, between $7.50-$7.60, however should the market maintain this momentum I dont see any reason for it not to set a higher high. 

The current price is $6.97 approx. and I have moved my stops up accordingly. I will prob tighten my stops up a bit over the next day or two incase the market decides to reverse a bid.

Any other views on this stock?


----------



## Sean K (30 July 2009)

investorpaul said:


> Any other views on this stock?



I bought some for my neices a few days ago.

Part of my Model Portfolio compliments of Lonsec.

Very long term hold for me.

Something to borrow off.


----------



## investorpaul (30 July 2009)

kennas said:


> I bought some for my neices a few days ago.
> 
> Part of my Model Portfolio compliments of Lonsec.
> 
> ...




I also have this in my long term portfolio, but saw the opportunity to trade it with my CFD account, It just hit $7.01 which is a good sign. My only concern s/t is a pull back in the general market.


----------



## Sean K (30 July 2009)

investorpaul said:


> I also have this in my long term portfolio, but saw the opportunity to trade it with my CFD account, It just hit $7.01 which is a good sign. My only concern s/t is a pull back in the general market.



Yes, I agree, there is probably a decent pullback in the wind.

Back down to 1500 by some EW accounts.

I have bought half what I wanted as part of the long term 'balanced' portfolio, and will buy the other half once the XAO goes down to 1500, or whatever.


----------



## investorpaul (30 July 2009)

kennas said:


> Yes, I agree, there is probably a decent pullback in the wind.
> 
> Back down to 1500 by some EW accounts.
> 
> I have bought half what I wanted as part of the long term 'balanced' portfolio, and will buy the other half once the XAO goes down to 1500, or whatever.




1500 by some EW accounts.Ouch, I hope not, mid to low 3000 would do for me.

That would be some drop


----------



## Sean K (30 July 2009)

investorpaul said:


> 1500 by some EW accounts.Ouch, I hope not, mid to low 3000 would do for me.
> 
> That would be some drop



The EW crowd will have you believe that we are still in a W4 correction with the W3 terminating at the previous low around 3100. Various projections of the W5 take us back to 2800 to 1500. EW will be proven BUNK imo if we continue higher from above 3500. Of course EW will be able to explain this with an alternate count. They will renumber the last 12 months of 12345's ABC's to fit into the new chart. Or, maybe they get it right, and we go to 6 year lows in the next few months. EW is on the line. Actually, no it's not, because they will change the count and be right no matter what.


----------



## Gekko (28 August 2009)

Excellent profit report today. Net Profit $270mn. EPS (excluding one-off items) 49.5c. Trading at $8.00. EPS = 18.7 on earnings expected to grow significantly. Forward EPS (estimate) offers value. 

I bought some more today.


----------



## Sean K (28 August 2009)

Yes, I have been in for a few weeks and very happy. This is in the Lonsec 'Model Portfolio' as a long term investment, and since I see a potential long term bottom I am holding. Any major company cashed up right now should emerge from the wreckage in very good shape. Time is a question. Did we see a bottom? Or, another one down the track? Many questions still on how this will pan out.


----------



## Gekko (29 August 2009)

Gekko said:


> Excellent profit report today. Net Profit $270mn. EPS (excluding one-off items) 49.5c. Trading at $8.00. EPS = 18.7 on earnings expected to grow significantly. Forward EPS (estimate) offers value.
> 
> I bought some more today.





Anyone heard anything about the TOL acquiring Brambles rumour?

http://www.businessspectator.com.au...Romancing-Tolls-pd20090828-VBT6C?OpenDocument

http://www.cargonewsasia.com/secured/article.aspx?id=7&article=20451


----------



## ASXNoob (20 October 2009)

I find that TOL pretty much never ends the day on a high...is there any explaination for this?

Noob.


----------



## matty77 (6 November 2009)

seems like they are back to buying up companies with the slush fund they have put aside - now one lesson i have read is not to listen to media stories when deciding if to buy, but it does seem Toll are continuing to go places, worth jumping on long term? what are peoples opinions?

Good time to buy acquisitions, probably some cheap deals around with the current state of the freight industry in general so could be good in 2 years time when it starts to bounce back.

i do not hold at the moment.


----------



## matty77 (18 January 2010)

nice jump today,  have seen the expansion plans are going well, cant find the link to the article.

anybody else hold these? potential?


----------



## matty77 (25 February 2010)

nice drop today,  should I try and average out?

ouch ouch and ouch! 

any comments appreciated.


----------



## Tysonboss1 (25 February 2010)

matty77 said:


> nice drop today,  should I try and average out?
> 
> ouch ouch and ouch!
> 
> any comments appreciated.




I hold,

I have only had a quick look at the report and so far, but can't see what has cause this drop other than their profit is down ( which is expected in this economy)

Probally a buying opportunity if anything.

It will be interesting to see what happens tomorow,


----------



## Julia (25 February 2010)

Tysonboss1 said:


> I hold,
> 
> I have only had a quick look at the report and so far, but can't see what has cause this drop other than their profit is down ( which is expected in this economy)
> 
> ...



I've never held TOL, but agree that this represents a good buying opportunity to acquire a well managed company.

LEI and WOR took a similar dive recently.  I didn't consider selling either.


----------



## oldblue (26 February 2010)

I don't hold TOL either but will be trying to find the time today to do some reading up on them.

Instinct tell me that this might be a market over-reaction and an opportunity to take a position in an industry leader.


----------



## maungatapu (6 July 2010)

TOL up 6.3% today on no news. Very much doubt the reserve banks decision to hold interest rates has anything to do with it. Checked other transport stocks; some up some down. Anybody got any theories?


----------



## oldblue (7 July 2010)

maungatapu said:


> TOL up 6.3% today on no news. Very much doubt the reserve banks decision to hold interest rates has anything to do with it. Checked other transport stocks; some up some down. Anybody got any theories?




It's possible that the market is slowly coming to the view that TOL has been oversold these last few months. At least, that's my view and I'll be looking to get set if the upturn is confirmed.


----------



## matty77 (14 July 2010)

They are still buying 

http://www.tandlnews.com.au/2010/07/13/article/Toll-sells-one-buys-two-in-Europe/CMFPUJNISV



> The Toll Group has ended a joint venture in Italy in metals logistics by selling its share, and announced two new acquisitions in Europe to drive its global forwarding ambitions further.
> 
> The Toll Group will acquire WT Sea Air Group (WT) and Genesis Forwarding Group (Genesis) to become one of the top UK forwarders. The Toll Group generates revenue in excess of A$6.5 billion and employs over 35,000 people in 55 countries.


----------



## boofhead (24 February 2011)

Results released today. Seems the share price took a dive on the news of the UK DRP as the pricing changes link to the ASX release of the UK DRP. I guess that indicates a noticable share holding from the UK base.


----------



## matty77 (10 May 2011)

anyone think its worth my time trying to average out on this stock at the moment? still down a fair way from when I bought. I still plan to hold long term.


----------



## Korban (9 June 2011)

Very quiet on TOL's page. Has hit sub $5, and is a very strong company in the scheme of things. Yes its a falling knife at the moment, but the price is beginning to get real tempting. Not sure what is going on behind the scenes though...


----------



## matty77 (9 June 2011)

The shareholder report which came out recently was an interesting read, should be on their website somewhere also.


----------



## Tysonboss1 (24 July 2011)

Korban said:


> Very quiet on TOL's page. Has hit sub $5, and is a very strong company in the scheme of things. Yes its a falling knife at the moment, but the price is beginning to get real tempting. Not sure what is going on behind the scenes though...




Alot of it is global uncertainty, combined with the management change.


----------



## investorpaul (26 July 2011)

*Re: TOL - Toll Holdings - TAX help needed*

Hi Guys,

I need some pointers in regard to working out the cost base on my tol shares.

I originally purchased shares in Patrick Corp years ago and in March 2009 PRK was taken over by TOL. I have re-read the announcements and it seems that I received 0.4 TOL shares as part of the T/O.

At the time TOL shares were trading at $14.05. Do I use this as my purchase price?

The only reason why I need to know is that I received AIO shares from TOL which I sold and need to calculate the cap loss.


----------



## skc (26 July 2011)

*Re: TOL - Toll Holdings - TAX help needed*



investorpaul said:


> Hi Guys,
> 
> I need some pointers in regard to working out the cost base on my tol shares.
> 
> ...




Depending on the tax ruling on the takeover there may be CGT relief for the takeover. What that means is that takeover was not deemed a CGT event and your cost base is just what you've paid for the old Patrick shares. But you really need to check yourself - I am sure it's on the internet somewhere!

Not sure about AIO spin off and the cost base to that...


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## investorpaul (26 July 2011)

Thanks for your reply SKC.

I have found the info on the net, but its just all going over my head.

I'm going to print it all out and take it to the accountant, I'm sure he can work it out.

I dont think it will matter too much, because I bought PRK when I first started trading then ended up with 0.4 TOL shares, then a handful of AIO shares from that so the sum involved is fairly small.


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## So_Cynical (29 June 2012)

Toll looks really cheap...the SP has been smashed lately with the 4 year chart looking rather depressing, the SP is in a 30 month decline with the current SP actually below the GFC low and in fact according to big charts, at an 11 year low. 

And yet the last profit down grade wasn't that big a deal...perhaps the market is anticipating another one, i would imagine so, perhaps its Tolls exposure to retailing that's the issue. :dunno: Global growth :dunno: perhaps we will see a bounce off the bottom trend line. :dunno: anyway i have placed an order with my super fund.
~


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## robusta (29 June 2012)

So_Cynical said:


> Toll looks really cheap...the SP has been smashed lately with the 4 year chart looking rather depressing, the SP is in a 30 month decline with the current SP actually below the GFC low and in fact according to big charts, at an 11 year low.
> 
> And yet the last profit down grade wasn't that big a deal...perhaps the market is anticipating another one, i would imagine so, perhaps its Tolls exposure to retailing that's the issue. :dunno: Global growth :dunno: perhaps we will see a bounce off the bottom trend line. :dunno: anyway i have placed an order with my super fund.
> ~




I agree the sp looks cheap and beaten up however there is no competitive advantage here and switching costs for customers are low. This industry is a bit like airlines if I can save $1 with your competitor you had better match it or I will walk, also requires major capital investment.


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## RottenValue (29 June 2012)

Take a look at the fundamentals - I think it explains the decline in SP over the past 5 years.

EPS has not increased since 2008  -  37 cents then and forecast to be 38 cents this year.

ROE is about 10% which is actually inflated due to the 40% debt level


My view is that the Share Price has reduced to meet its intrinsic value of around $3.60.  Its price used to be inflated through the PE ratio with the market hoping for growth that never came.  The market has rerated it with a PE of around 10 which is more reflective of its stagnant growth.


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## skc (29 June 2012)

So_Cynical said:


> Toll looks really cheap...the SP has been smashed lately with the 4 year chart looking rather depressing, the SP is in a 30 month decline with the current SP actually below the GFC low and in fact according to big charts, at an 11 year low.
> 
> And yet the last profit down grade wasn't that big a deal...perhaps the market is anticipating another one, i would imagine so, perhaps its Tolls exposure to retailing that's the issue. :dunno: Global growth :dunno: perhaps we will see a bounce off the bottom trend line. :dunno: anyway i have placed an order with my super fund.
> ~




The latest update says EBIT ~$400-420m. NPAT is ~65% of EBIT in previous years, so a rough guess of NPAT is ~$267m, or 37cps. At $3.86 it's trading at PE ~10.4. It's not expensive depending on your outlook but not a bargain either.

On another measure - EBITDA is ~$700m. Market cap is currently $2.77B + debt of $1.7B makes enterprise value ~$4.47B. EV/EBITDA = 6.4x which looks cheaper. Perhaps that's why there are private equity rumours on TOL recently.


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## So_Cynical (29 June 2012)

robusta said:


> I agree the sp looks cheap and beaten up however there is *no competitive advantage* here and *switching costs for customers are low*. This industry is a bit like airlines if I can save $1 with your competitor you had better match it or I will walk, also requires major capital investment.




All true and globally more relevant than the Australian situation, and Toll is a global player...in Aust, Star track express has recently merged with Aust air express (Qantas/post), so the realistic Aust wide choice just got a little smaller shrinking from 4 to 3....and its still a very big business, that's some sort of advantage.

In Aust there is a logistics Triopoly....as far as serious volumes go.

Still good to get some quality comments, thanks to SKC and RottenValue as well.


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## matty77 (26 July 2012)

Heard on the grape vine they had the worst day profit/loss experienced in the past 16 years last week.

Anyone confirm the rumor?


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## skc (26 July 2012)

matty77 said:


> Heard on the grape vine they had the worst day profit/loss experienced in the past 16 years last week.
> 
> Anyone confirm the rumor?




For the company or the share price?

Certainly not the case for the share price as it has had some nasty moves before.

And what does a one-day P/L for the company even mean or matter?

Time to seek clarification from the grape vine...


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## matty77 (27 July 2012)

Ok to clarify.

Not talking about share price.

I am talking about how much revenue they generated in one day, which was the lowest in a number of years last week...

It means the wheels are falling off the transport industry at the moment, they are all suffering. Which means retail will be suffering..


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## matty77 (21 August 2012)

Ok just to clarify.

They had the lowest number of Con-Notes signed off over a 7 days period that has ever been recorded.

I have noticed Toll pushing hard into the mining, oil and gas sectors. Still thinking they could be a winner long term (2+ years) at todays prices.


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## Smurf1976 (21 August 2012)

matty77 said:


> Ok to clarify.
> 
> Not talking about share price.
> 
> ...



On two occasions recently I've had truck drivers (employees of large freight companies) tell me pretty much the same thing. Freight yards are "empty" and there isn't much being transported apart from Coles / Woolworths and specific bulk commodities. 

Getting investment advice from truck drivers is probably a bit like the proverbial taxi driver giving advice, but I've no reason to doubt their observations about the business they are directly employed in. It's apparent from just dealing with them too - they're not in a hurry to drop things off and get going these days like they always used to be.


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## Tyler Durden (21 August 2012)

Smurf1976 said:


> On two occasions recently I've had truck drivers (employees of large freight companies) tell me pretty much the same thing. Freight yards are "empty" and there isn't much being transported apart from Coles / Woolworths and specific bulk commodities.
> 
> Getting investment advice from truck drivers is probably a bit like the proverbial taxi driver giving advice, but I've no reason to doubt their observations about the business they are directly employed in. It's apparent from just dealing with them too - they're not in a hurry to drop things off and get going these days like they always used to be.




I really wonder why that is. With the advent of online shopping, you'd think there'd be *more* goods being transported.


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## McLovin (21 August 2012)

Tyler Durden said:


> I really wonder why that is. With the advent of online shopping, you'd think there'd be *more* goods being transported.




Most stuff bought online probably goes through the postal system.


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## Smurf1976 (22 August 2012)

Tyler Durden said:


> I really wonder why that is. With the advent of online shopping, you'd think there'd be *more* goods being transported.



I took it to be a reflection of a downturn in general.

Construction industry is down that's easy to spot, and it means less building materials being transported from brick works, timber mills etc.

Retail seems to be struggling too - things get transported whether it's to Myer / David Jones or from overseas. It all goes on a truck at some point.

That's just two examples which come to mind.


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## So_Cynical (22 August 2012)

Toll in2store fashion is a big part of Tolls Aussie operation.

http://www.tollin2store.com/


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## pixel (19 November 2012)

I started buying TOL a few weeks ago with a longer-term view - hence the weekly chart.
Could have bought a few cents lower, but as long as it holds that long-term support at $4.25, I intend to stick around and treat last week's dip as a side effect of general market jitters.





The Daily chart confirms the somehow better opportunity - isn't hindsight great! 
The inviting gaps overhead also suggest more upside potential if the falling trendline resistance can be overcome.


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## Boggo (27 June 2013)

Some positive news out on TOL today.
Always find it interesting that the stock price moves up days before the news comes out


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## piggybank (29 August 2014)

TOL had some good news today, in that some of the existing contracts with the Government Business Group (based in Singapore) are to be extended by a minimum of 2 years.

http://www.stocknessmonster.com/news-item?S=TOL&E=ASX&N=410862


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## sptrawler (6 January 2015)

I think with the increasing pressure on companies, to extract profit in a tighter market, transport of product will be outsourced. 
Toll may capitalise on this, if they are nimble, which they haven't displayed in the past.IMO

I do hold, would like to add, but am yet to be convinced.


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## peter2 (9 January 2015)

*TOL* closing above $6.00 gives me a warm fuzzy feeling that the Aussie economic outlook might be improving.


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## captain black (9 January 2015)

peter2 said:


> *TOL* closing above $6.00




Perhaps all the parcels I've had delivered by Toll in my post-xmas spending spree have helped push their profits up! 

I must say that I'm impressed with the way parcels can be tracked and the notification system that Toll have in place. Received an email on the day of delivery advising the parcel would be delivered that day. Great service. Friendly delivery bloke too. I had a few parcels from Kogan and I think he's a part-time Kogan salesman as well (jk); we spent a while talking about Netflix and Kogan's range of 4K TV's.


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## Value Collector (9 January 2015)

peter2 said:


> *TOL* closing above $6.00 gives me a warm fuzzy feeling that the Aussie economic outlook might be improving.
> 
> View attachment 61047




it's the oil price I am guessing, people are probably factoring higher profit margin due to declines in the cost of fuel.




captain black said:


> Perhaps all the parcels I've had delivered by Toll in my post-xmas spending spree have helped push their profits up!
> 
> I must say that I'm impressed with the way parcels can be tracked and the notification system that Toll have in place. Received an email on the day of delivery advising the parcel would be delivered that day. Great service. Friendly delivery bloke too. I had a few parcels from Kogan and I think he's a part-time Kogan salesman as well (jk); we spent a while talking about Netflix and Kogan's range of 4K TV's.




Toll are certainly one of the best parcel delivery companies, they are more expensive though.


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## PinguPingu (18 February 2015)

TOL in trading halt after takeover bid? $9.04 @ 49% premium over current price!!!!


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## sptrawler (18 February 2015)

PinguPingu said:


> TOL in trading halt after takeover bid? $9.04 @ 49% premium over current price!!!!




It is a bit sad another Aussie company goes to O/S buyers. 
But on a personal note "you ripper", just bought a big parcel at $6 for the upcoming dividend.


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## PinguPingu (18 February 2015)

sptrawler said:


> It is a bit sad another Aussie company goes to O/S buyers.
> But on a personal note "you ripper", just bought a big parcel at $6 for the upcoming dividend.




Yeah, also another large cap fully franked company soon to be plucked out of the ASX. 

But having done the same as yourself, fairly happy chappy.


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## skc (18 February 2015)

sptrawler said:


> It is a bit sad another Aussie company goes to O/S buyers.
> But on a personal note "you ripper", just bought a big parcel at $6 for the upcoming dividend.






PinguPingu said:


> Yeah, also another large cap fully franked company soon to be plucked out of the ASX.
> 
> But having done the same as yourself, fairly happy chappy.




Well done you two. I am still picking up my jaw off the floor on the premium being paid. TOL's never traded too far North of $6 for the last 6 years. I guess you can afford to pay a lot when the Yen essentially comes free.


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## notting (18 February 2015)

It amazed me how badly TOL performed relative to the increase in online shopping. 
Low Ausi $$ and seismic shift  in fuel costs make it look attractive.
The Japs will need to make more of it than the management has for the past 13 years to justify the price. But who cares you can borrow billions for nothing at the moment. Why not!


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## DeepState (18 February 2015)

Got lucky.  In at $6.12.  Enough upside to elicit an involuntary smile. No shadow boxing. On with it.


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## bonkerrs (18 February 2015)

I need some advice please. I have some CFD TOL. Up 46%. Is this the right time to sell? I got in at $6.20 a couple of weeks ago.

What are some likely scenarios with the take over bid? How should one approach this?


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## VSntchr (18 February 2015)

bonkerrs said:


> I need some advice please. I have some CFD TOL. Up 46%. Is this the right time to sell? I got in at $6.20 a couple of weeks ago.
> 
> What are some likely scenarios with the take over bid? How should one approach this?




Can't provide you advice but there are possibilities of events:
1) offer goes through as stated
2) offer is blocked by Foreign review board
3) offer is voted down by shareholders
4) Another competing offer is put forward

It's up to you to figure out any more potential scenario's and what the chances are of any occuring, then make your own decision that you can live with!


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## bonkerrs (18 February 2015)

Yeah you're right. "Advice" shouldn't be the word for it. Thanks anyway.


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## notting (18 February 2015)

The only risk is the foreign exchange board as far as I can see. They should be shot if they block it.
you can hang around for the 10c and the dividend if they are still going to pay it this Feb.
Or just take it and be happy.


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## sptrawler (18 February 2015)

notting said:


> The only risk is the foreign exchange board as far as I can see. They should be shot if they block it.
> you can hang around for the 10c and the dividend if they are still going to pay it this Feb.
> Or just take it and be happy.




Apparently they are paying a fully franked 13c dividend.


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## McLovin (18 February 2015)

Yikes! Plenty of _kaizen_ needed to justify that price.


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## VSntchr (18 February 2015)

From an arbing point of view, the current price implies about a 5% chance that the takeover won't go through...based on some rough calcs that disregard franking credits. 

It would be quite a risky trade for a small gain, with the payoffs (approx) 2.6% v -47%.


Speculators may take comfort in that GFF went through okay..


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## rb250660 (18 February 2015)

Pretty happy here too. Picked up a bunch in December @ $5.83 in my super.


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## futurenow (18 February 2015)

_Toll's ex-chief executive officer, Paul Little, who led the company's expansion into Asia and quit after 26 years in 2012, could be one of the biggest winners from the deal. He stands to make a A$325 million windfall from his 5 percent stake._


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## System (1 June 2015)

On May 29th, 2015, Toll Holdings Limited (TOL) was removed from the ASX's official list following implementation of the scheme of arrangement by which Japan Post Co., Ltd acquired all of the Company's issued capital.


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## pixel (2 June 2015)

System said:


> On May 29th, 2015, Toll Holdings Limited (TOL) was removed from the ASX's official list following implementation of the scheme of arrangement by which Japan Post Co., Ltd acquired all of the Company's issued capital.




Another Australian company goes Overseas and exports all of its dividends.


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## Value Collector (2 June 2015)

pixel said:


> Another Australian company goes Overseas and exports all of its dividends.




Maybe if the average Aussie wasn't so Property obsessed, we would have more investment dollars heading into our Share market and we wouldn't be such easy targets.

I think Australia is short of long term share market investors, at least compared to property investors.

The average Aussie to me seems like they don't mind taking heavily leveraged positions into property, but ask them to sit $25K in the share market for 5 years and they flip their lid.


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## Wysiwyg (2 June 2015)

Value Collector said:


> Maybe if the average Aussie wasn't so Property obsessed, we would have more investment dollars heading into our Share market and we wouldn't be such easy targets.
> 
> I think Australia is short of long term share market investors, at least compared to property investors.
> 
> The average Aussie to me seems like they don't mind taking heavily leveraged positions into property, but ask them to sit $25K in the share market for 5 years and they flip their lid.



I.M.O. The price fluctuations where holdings can be underwater for an indeterminable period is a big deterrent.


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## skc (2 June 2015)

pixel said:


> Another Australian company goes Overseas and exports all of its dividends.




The Japanese did pay a very handsome price! You can buy a lot more investments with that sum.


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## Value Collector (2 June 2015)

Wysiwyg said:


> I.M.O. The price fluctuations where holdings can be underwater for an indeterminable period is a big deterrent.




Yes, and I think that basically comes back to the public perception of the share market being a place where you focus on short term movements in price, rather than being a place to buy and sell pieces of businesses.

If the public understood the long term value that can be generated by buying and holding and adding to a basket of good companies, They would make smarter decisions in my opinion.

I mean if your holding period is 10 years +, it shouldn't matter to you if in year 3 your portfolio drops 30%, If anything that drop is going to be a net plus for you.

Price fluctuations shouldn't bother you especially if you're planning to just use dividends to live off. Talk to any property investor and they will say, "well if the property price went down I would still get my rent, that's what I am planning to live off" but they would freak out if their share portfolio went down, it's just they look at the two asset classes through different glasses.


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