# Who is selling/buying - what is driving the market?



## DionM (22 January 2008)

No, I don't mean a list of your trades.

I'm trying to figure out how the market is working, but I don't understand.  Why are stocks having to be sold?  Surely many are incurring losses now on sales, so why are they selling?  

What are institutions doing in a market like this?  What impact does daytrading have?


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## Nathan_b (22 January 2008)

*Re: Who is selling, who is buying - what is driving the market?*

margin loans also people cutting losses to move back in later


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## Trembling Hand (22 January 2008)

*Re: Who is selling, who is buying - what is driving the market?*



DionM said:


> Surely many are incurring losses now on sales




You have answered your own question.


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## numbercruncher (22 January 2008)

*Re: Who is selling, who is buying - what is driving the market?*

I Bet there is also many many budding soon to be retirees fully invested via Superanuation pooping their perverbial panties hitting the panic button, Im sure i would be faced with the same situation


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## Nyden (22 January 2008)

*Re: Who is selling, who is buying - what is driving the market?*

I sold out of my final positions today; not out of panic, but out of logic. The market is going to continue to fall, simple as that. Maybe it will have a few rallies here & there, but I think it's almost safe to call a bear market. 

RBA will raise interest rates, which is good for holders of cash ; so I say bring it on!


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## cordelia (22 January 2008)

*Re: Who is selling, who is buying - what is driving the market?*

well someone's buying  because there's lots of selling


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## ROE (22 January 2008)

*Re: Who is selling, who is buying - what is driving the market?*

I been buying for the last 7 days....havent sold any stock
will buy again tomorrow if it goes red 

My Unlce Warren told me when you cant find anything worth wise to buy keep it cash..so last year I couldn't find anything cheap enough i load up the cash and anything that go nuts I sold and keep it in cash 

Uncle Graham said time like these the market suddenly giving away money


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## Nyden (22 January 2008)

*Re: Who is selling, who is buying - what is driving the market?*



ROE said:


> I been buying for the last 7 days....havent sold any stock
> will buy again tomorrow if it goes red




What if it stays relatively red though? Bear market? Recession? Chinese slow down?


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## Porper (22 January 2008)

*Re: Who is selling, who is buying - what is driving the market?*



cordelia said:


> well someone's buying  because there's lots of selling




There are some good risk reward trades still out there i.m.o.

You could still have a 5% stop on ZFX this afternoon, buy when it is rising and move the stop up and that is more like a 3% stop.If the market tanks, no harm done, if we get anything other than a US meltdown tonight then it could be a good trade.

I thought it was a reasonable proposition anyway.


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## agro (22 January 2008)

*Re: Who is selling, who is buying - what is driving the market?*

You just have to stick through it.

No intelligent investor looks at the day to day volitility of the markets and frets over it. The way in which an average person who has done their research and studied the markets can make money guaranteed is in long-term value/quality investments.

Trying to make money in short-term speculation is 100% no different than gambling, it's impossible to consitently guess right.

But, through all the history of stock markets, a diversified portfolio invested in equities on a long term time scale will make solid gains and just blow guaranteed investments out of the water. The ups and downs people worry about now are almost invisible when you stand back and look at the charts over years which is what you ought to be doing if you're a smart investor.

Right now is all based in hysteria over fears of recession, but it's not reflected in value and the markets will correct themselves over the coming weeks. Now, whoever picks bottom is able to make themselves some good gains, even presently there are tons of solid long-term values out there - but everyone is waiting for the issues to work themselves out. The economy is slowed up right now, but it's not so horrible that people should be worried to the degree that the numbers have shown lately. It certainly isn't logic that drives the markets in times like these.


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## skating101 (22 January 2008)

*Re: Who is selling, who is buying - what is driving the market?*

selling my speculative stake to buy back into it tomorrow seeing as everyone is expecting another big sell off tomorrow


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## Pommiegranite (22 January 2008)

*Re: Who is selling, who is buying - what is driving the market?*



numbercruncher said:


> I Bet there is also many many budding soon to be retirees fully invested via Superanuation pooping their perverbial panties hitting the panic button, Im sure i would be faced with the same situation




Espicially those (like my previous boss who is retiring this June) who scraped together $1 million prior to 30June07 to take advantage of the 07 Super concession.


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## nioka (22 January 2008)

*Re: Who is selling, who is buying - what is driving the market?*



DionM said:


> Why are stocks having to be sold?  Surely many are incurring losses now on sales, so why are they selling?




A lemming rush goaded on by margin calls and financial advisers trying to prove they were right in calling a bear market and drawing attention away from the fact that they recommended investments in the likes of Rams and Centro.


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## ASK (22 January 2008)

*Re: Who is selling, who is buying - what is driving the market?*



Nyden said:


> What if it stays relatively red though? Bear market? Recession? Chinese slow down?




ease up there, Nyden ... you really know how to make a few of the members on here go running for a clean set of pants. The markets down, a long way down - people are selling ... potential bargains will always exist. A smart trader will always make money, always ... shame im not one of them!


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## ROE (22 January 2008)

*Re: Who is selling, who is buying - what is driving the market?*



Nyden said:


> What if it stays relatively red though? Bear market? Recession? Chinese slow down?




Dont care I work out how much I want to pay for something when it hit below that mark time to buy  

no emotion involve no if or but so doesnt care if the market dropped a 1000 points 

My figure of red or down generally apply to stock price go down to the level I want to buy... 
so if it go up i'm unlikely to get the price I want. It doesn't bear any relation to anything


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## trillionaire#1 (22 January 2008)

*Re: Who is selling, who is buying - what is driving the market?*



ROE said:


> I been buying for the last 7 days....havent sold any stock
> will buy again tomorrow if it goes red
> 
> My Unlce Warren told me when you cant find anything worth wise to buy keep it cash..so last year I couldn't find anything cheap enough i load up the cash and anything that go nuts I sold and keep it in cash
> ...




wish i had a wise pair of uncles like you!


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## Timmy (22 January 2008)

*What is driving the market?*

Fear would appear to have the upper hand at the moment.


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## ROE (22 January 2008)

*Re: Who is selling, who is buying - what is driving the market?*



trillionaire#1 said:


> wish i had a wise pair of uncles like you!




These uncles are World Wide uncle anyone can be their uncle 
Warren Buffett and Benjamin Graham (dead uncle of course) 
Good old fashion wisdom never dies it just get lost during bull market


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## Buffettology (22 January 2008)

*Re: Who is selling, who is buying - what is driving the market?*



ROE said:


> These uncles are World Wide uncle anyone can be their uncle
> Warren Buffett and Benjamin Graham (dead uncle of course)
> Good old fashion wisdom never dies it just get lost during bull market




ha ha, yes, you invest the same as me ROE!  

Thing is, I got greedy and started buying at OK prices, but not great prices!

I still have a bit of cash to dump in, which I might if we get another crazy sell off tomorrow (cant see us going much lower than 5000).  

Plus I am planning to sell flog off an asset I have here, anything to get more cash!  My eyes are ringing with bargains at the moment, but I only have about 15k cash left!  25k once I flog off this asset, but still small bickies!  Too much already sunk in there of which has been STUNG!


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## Buffettology (22 January 2008)

Timmy said:


> *What is driving the market?*
> 
> Fear would appear to have the upper hand at the moment.




Rediculous fear!

Its the US in "recession", not us right?  ha ha.

Plus, Asian is booming and our economy still looks healthy.  

This fear is just rediculous and unjustified as far as I can see!


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## Snakey (22 January 2008)

I was buying today at very cheap prices and other where locking in losses 
im only trading short term because i think we are due for a bounce very shortly


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## theasxgorilla (22 January 2008)

*Re: Who is selling, who is buying - what is driving the market?*



agro said:


> Trying to make money in short-term speculation is 100% no different than gambling, it's impossible to consitently guess right.




I agree about gambling...the principles are often the same which is why trading borrows many a concept from gambling.  But people can and do consistently guess right.  I'm certainly no short-term trading genius, but you wouldn't have needed to be one to know that you should not have been holding any long positions over the last week.  If you were trying to fade this market then you got a lesson today.  Hope it didn't hurt too much.  If you were buying under the guise of 'value investing' then good luck and well done.  You are privy to some information that I am not.  Being contrary to panic selling just because it's emotional and doesn't make sense however, is seemingly quite dangerous given the sudden increased vigour of this decline.

It may be a while before market participants come to their senses and begin to care about 'value' and 'investing' versus, "I just want my friggin' money NOW, thank you".

ASX.G


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## Doris (22 January 2008)

Snakey said:


> I was buying today at very cheap prices and other where locking in losses
> im only trading short term because i think we are due for a bounce very shortly




Deutsch bank guy last night suggested mid Feb bounce.

On 7:30 report tonight:
Japan and Hong Kong down 31% from Nov high.  Aus down 23%...  but US is only down 18%.

There would be a lot of nervous investors in the US looking at what happened in Europe and Asia whilst they holidayed...   Mac bank guy suggested it would open down 5% then who knows.


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## Buffettology (23 January 2008)

*Re: Who is selling, who is buying - what is driving the market?*



theasxgorilla said:


> I agree about gambling...the principles are often the same which is why trading borrows many a concept from gambling.  But people can and do consistently guess right.  I'm certainly no short-term trading genius, but you wouldn't have needed to be one to know that you should not have been holding any long positions over the last week.  If you were trying to fade this market then you got a lesson today.  Hope it didn't hurt too much.  If you were buying under the guise of 'value investing' then good luck and well done.  You are privy to some information that I am not.  Being contrary to panic selling just because it's emotional and doesn't make sense however, is seemingly quite dangerous given the sudden increased vigour of this decline.
> 
> It may be a while before market participants come to their senses and begin to care about 'value' and 'investing' versus, "I just want my friggin' money NOW, thank you".
> 
> ASX.G




Good post!


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## nioka (23 January 2008)

*Re: Who is selling, who is buying - what is driving the market?*



Nyden said:


> I sold out of my final positions today; not out of panic, but out of logic. The market is going to continue to fall, simple as that. Maybe it will have a few rallies here & there, but I think it's almost safe to call a bear market.




Todays market has defied your logic of yesterday. I bought yesterday and sold today. I call it lemming profit. Even bought more than I meant to yesterday because I put in some low orders that I did not expect to get filled and was away for a little while. You win some and lose some. It is never "as simple as that". You may be right, it may be a bear market, why not go bear hunting.


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## adobee (23 January 2008)

I followed the herd.. i sold at the lowest point and re bought in when stocks went back up.. 

It defied the logic I work on but emotion got the better of me.. if only I could go back..


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## Rocket man (23 January 2008)

Supposedly most investors here have a long term view 

So why isnt there more buying at these cheap prices ? Seems to be fear driving the mkt but IMO common sense should prevail not nervousness and irrationality. Eventually share prices will return to fair value. I dont think we will see another day like tuesday this year so good luck to all.


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## numbercruncher (23 January 2008)

Im convinced we will still see loads of volatility over the coming x amount of time, even the elusive chace of ARMageddon 

But there was definately some value floating about to stick away with the long termers !

We live i Interesting times


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## ROE (24 January 2008)

Rocket man said:


> Supposedly most investors here have a long term view
> 
> So why isnt there more buying at these cheap prices ? Seems to be fear driving the mkt but IMO common sense should prevail not nervousness and irrationality. Eventually share prices will return to fair value. I dont think we will see another day like tuesday this year so good luck to all.




Most people think long term but they trade short term could explain why


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## Junior (24 January 2008)

I'm a long term investor, haven't sold anything over the past 6 months.  However the mistake I made was gearing up too high via a margin loan.  I've had to throw all my cash at it over the past couple of weeks!

Lesson learnt: don't run your ML at 70% when the market is hitting record highs!!


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