# Horse Racing Systems



## idribble (1 May 2007)

Would like to hear of others experiences.

I've got a couple of beauts, simple, and they've stood the test of time.  I believe there are many, many systems that work and I'd like to start a chat on the implementation of systems.

I'll keep this brief in case no-one is interested.

Return On Investment is what it's all about, and it's not always good.  System afficianados and promoters go into overdrive when any "system" is hot, the end result being that the odds are reduced because of increased activity of punters in one area, the ROI drops to the point where the "system" just doesn't work.  This is when you don't want to be punting!  The "system" still works, it's the mugs that have shortened the odds to unders!

I combine my ROI and strike rate into a formulae for each system and the resultant "number" is the data I use to see when the system is on the "boil", which is time to ease off, and when it is "overdue", which is when punters have cottoned on, got in, shortened the odds, lowered the ROI, lost their dough and lost interest!

All things are cyclical, good horse racing systems are cyclical.  It's the up and down nature of ROI that will kill you.  Manage that and you make money regularly.


----------



## Stinger (1 May 2007)

In my opinion horse racing is rigged, well a lot of the races anyway. Only bet on a horse if i know the owner or someone involved etc and always try to get fixed odds if possible.

Would never try to make a living from it


----------



## idribble (1 May 2007)

stinger, horse racing doesn't need to be rigged to make it difficult.  I've got a list of well over 100 excuses, reasons given over the years from trainers and the nedia why a horse didn't perform up to expectations.  Here's the first 50!  I shan't bother you with the other 80 odd!!!!

1.	Track bias and pattern of racing did not suit.
2.	Windy day irritated the respiratory system
3.	Not suited to the track. 
4.	Cannot handle the track conditions. 
5.	Was found to be unwell (as opposed to race fitness). 
6.	Medication may have an adverse effect. 
7.	Hit with a clod during running. 
8.	Inconvenienced by seagulls.
9.	Bad ride by jockey. 
10.	Bad barrier. 
11.	Sits down in the stalls.
12.	Fidgetty and unsettled before the race.
13.	Set for a different race in the future.
14.	Jockey ‘wasted’ too much and had nothing left in last 100.
15.	Not suited by the distance. 
16.	Pace of the race did not suit. 
17.	Checked during running. 
18.	Over trained and left jaded.
19.	Stood flat footed in the stalls, missed the start and that was that.
20.	Could not get clear in running. 
21.	Gear change trialled, but proven to be a failure.
22.	Given the run for fitness / experience.
23.	Injured during running. 
24.	Racing out of it’s class.
25.	Trainer gave jockey bad instructions to go to the wrong side of the straight six.
26.	Could not carry the wieght. 
27.	Did not respond to the style of riding.
28.	Days temperature was too hot. 
29.	Not fit enough.
30.	Mentally unstable and had a bad day.
31.	Saddle slipped during running. 
32.	Vet checked, found to be sore.
33.	Did not appreciate international style of riding.
34.	Didn’t acclimatize, feed, surroundings, weather etc.
35.	Gear failure (tongue tie).
36.	Other horse / s in the race are superior. 
37.	Mare on heat.
38.	Jumped at the crossing during the race. 
39.	Peeled out on the turn and ran smack into a headwind.
40.	Jarred up in its previous run. 
41.	Lost a plate during the race. 
42.	Could not train during the week because of availability of the track. 
43.	Died during the race.
44.	Resented being pushed along early.
45.	Huge run in top race last start, but today she was flat and has had enough racing.
46.	Slowly away from the barriers. 
47.	Caught wide.
48.	Rider dropped whip.
49.	Kicked in the mounting yard, passed fit to run.
50.	Jockey weighed in underweight.


----------



## macca (1 May 2007)

Hi Id,

used to do a lot of punting but I found that with the wall to wall racing we have today I couldn't stay in touch with it all so gave up.

I was quite successful when the good ones went around on a Saturday and the rest during the week.

Now they have group races on Thursday night, Friday night Sat arvo and night , Sunday, a blokes got to give some time to the family so I quit the races completely.


----------



## wayneL (1 May 2007)

idribble said:


> stinger, horse racing doesn't need to be rigged to make it difficult.  I've got a list of well over 100 excuses, reasons given over the years from trainers and the nedia why a horse didn't perform up to expectations.  Here's the first 50!  I shan't bother you with the other 80 odd!!!!
> 
> 1.	Track bias and pattern of racing did not suit.
> 2.	Windy day irritated the respiratory system
> ...



All true, but corruption is still rife, believe me.


----------



## Wysiwyg (1 May 2007)

Dribbs matey there is only one reason why horses don`t win and that is because there can be only one winner and that winner is known by someone or several people before the race is run (barring any physical mishaps).


----------



## idribble (2 May 2007)

Wysiwyg, it doesn't mastter to me how corrupt the industry may, may not be!  

What matters to me is repeating patterns, and there are many.  It's fairly well established that number 1 will win more races than say number 8. It's also fairly well established that a last start winner for instance will win more often than a horse that's run say 3rd at it's previous run.

Very simplistic example above, but there are some very good indicators, and when combined do give a powerful combination that one could be confident will show consistent results.  The idea is to keep an eye on the connection between the results and ROI.  Many arguments can be put forward refuting this including the ossed of heads coming up after say 5 tails have come up in the last five tosses etc.

Wait for "it" to be due and step up!  Enter at the correct time, with the correct strategy, and runs of outs won't be a factor with a tried and true system.  Better off to miss out on a winner or two go, rather than jump on the inevitable losing streak. 

I don't mind if racing is, or isn't corrupt, or if the result of the race is 'known' prior to the race.  It just doesn't matter.


----------



## Realist (2 May 2007)

I can not believe a horse racing system actually works.

Please give us an example of what a system is, and how you use it..

Thanks


----------



## idribble (2 May 2007)

Realist, your nic seems to be at odds with your request!  lol


----------



## TheAbyss (2 May 2007)

My father and his father were in the horse racing game and i cant recommend strongly enough that you do not go there!

Horse racing was known as the sport of kings because they were the only ones who could afford them.

So you think you have a horse that can win a race based on previous form or lack of form in the opposition?

A few ways to come unstuck and lose your money, 

First the handicapper can beat you by adding weight to the horses back (the old adage, enough weight will stop a train)

Then the prevailing conditions can beat you, track wet/ hard, wind blah blah
Bad luck will beat you 

then there is the fact a horse is just an animal with a brain the size of a pea so it will do something stupid or get nervouse sweats, get some blood disorder or a myriad of other ailments such as a bad shoe fit.

Then if none of the above beat you, there is the midget sitting on the thing that is capable of talking to other jockeys, trainers and susceptible to human frailties such as failing under pressure etc. Then of course he could be corrupt and be paid to beat your horse.

And you want to risk your hard earned on the above? Best of luck if you have a system that can ride through all of the above and come out the other side in front.


----------



## idribble (2 May 2007)

Been doing it for 20 odd years.  It's a numbers game as are the markets, all you need to do is get the odds in your favour.

One horse has to win, they all don't lose.  I'm selective on which meetings I apply my strategy to.  No way would I bet in the bush!  I bet on Saturday Metro meetings in Sydney & Melbourne, and some selected midweek meetings in Sydney & Melbourne.

Form is useless, for instance, do you know what percentage of horses are badly affected by windy days and lose interest?  It's staggering!  So, where is the form for horses who've raced on windy days?


----------



## Wysiwyg (2 May 2007)

idribble said:


> Been doing it for 20 odd years.  It's a numbers game as are the markets, all you need to do is get the odds in your favour.
> 
> One horse has to win, they all don't lose.  I'm selective on which meetings I apply my strategy to.  No way would I bet in the bush!  I bet on Saturday Metro meetings in Sydney & Melbourne, and some selected midweek meetings in Sydney & Melbourne.
> 
> Form is useless, for instance, do you know what percentage of horses are badly affected by windy days and lose interest?  It's staggering!  So, where is the form for horses who've raced on windy days?




When you win you will want to win again.Then *BANG* you lose.Then you want to win back that money that you just lost.That is a vicious circle with a gradual (or fast) decline in capital. 

If you miss then you do not get a second chance...the capital is gone.


P.s.....what is that voice gnawing away inside my head?pssst.Don`t go there!


----------



## Kauri (2 May 2007)

Far safer punting on the financial markets, after all when was the last time you read on this forum about claims of manipulation, insider trading, directors buying/selling on information not available to the average investor, price capping, the PPT etc..... yep give me the honesty of the share market anytime...   
 idribble, where do you get your form from, I've found Warren Blocks The Wizard is hard to beat?   _Either that or get to know a good Farrier_..


----------



## smoothsatin (2 May 2007)

idribble said:


> Wysiwyg, it doesn't mastter to me how corrupt the industry may, may not be!
> 
> What matters to me is repeating patterns, and there are many.  It's fairly well established that number 1 will win more races than say number 8. It's also fairly well established that a last start winner for instance will win more often than a horse that's run say 3rd at it's previous run.
> 
> ...





Hi idribble,

I am a professional punter on Aust gallops and struggle to believe your system could work. What does "fairly well established" mean with respect to last start winners winning more than last start 3rds etc? Have you tested this at all? If so what % on turnover do you achieve?


----------



## Stinger (2 May 2007)

idribble the more you post the more you sound like one of those gamblers who just needs another $100 to win everything back!

I like a bet on the horses, but dont believe systems work. Your money though


----------



## idribble (3 May 2007)

smoothsatin, with respect, you don't know what my systems are.  They aren't complex at all.  I've always been interested in systems and many work for a while then pppfffftttt.  There was one 20 odd years ago called "The Dark Horse System" (I think), it worked well for a while then the ROI went negative but the winning percentage stayed the same.  The penny dropped.  I know a few professionals and they have no interest in systems at all, they are, to say the least, very dubious as to whether a system could work at all.  Even if I laid out my system to prove it was viable I'm sure they wouldn't touch it with a ten foot pole.  I can see where they're coming from given the amount of work they put in and their professional approach.

I met a bloke a long time ago in Tweed Heads who had many systems.  He watched them closely and punted only when they were "overdue".  I could write a book on this stuff.  Backtesting is great if you want to put a system up for sale and get the mugs in!  And yes, I have backtested these, through my own research only.  Many people offer backtesting services, but why would you go near one?

And to wisywig, what you say is correct, but if you follow a system and are disciplined you won't go trying for the "big win" or chasing losses etc.  A small percentage of punters win, as do trainers, jockeys and owners.  Not everyone loses.  Discipline is the key.


----------



## idribble (18 May 2007)

Oh those of little faith!

High Papa just saluted!  You wouldn't have backed it in a fit trying to analyse it's form against all the others but, there you go!

And on a bog track!!!!!!!!!!

Don't normally get them at those odds.


----------

