# Hottest January Ever



## Knobby22 (5 March 2013)

From News.com.au

Bureau of Meteorology reveals stats for summer 2012-13 

*January has officially been named Australia's hottest month on record, the heatwave part of a deadly summer of bushfires and floods.*

Bureau climatologist Blair Trewin said heat statistics would come as no surprise.

"It's already obvious that summer's been significantly warmer than normal as a whole," he said.

"And one of the distinctive features of this summer has been the heat has been extremely widespread."

Mr Trewin said 97 per cent of the country had suffered above-average heat.

"About two thirds of the country is going to have a summer in its top 10 of the last 100 years," Mr Trewin said.

"So that extent of significant heat is something that we have few or any precedents for."

Australia recorded its eighth-highest known temperature this year - 49.6C at Moomba Airport, in northeast South Australia, on January 12.

Read more: http://www.news.com.au/national-new...13/story-fncynjr2-1226587917685#ixzz2McoMYFhs

I'm not going to mention the war - I mentioned it once but think I got away with it.


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## Knobby22 (5 March 2013)

RECORD BREAKING WEATHER 

HEAT  

January 7, 2013 - Hottest day on record for Australia as a whole. Average temperature peaked at 40.30degrees.

Record for the consecutive number of days where average daily maximum temperature for the whole of Australia was more than 39degrees. 

More than 70% of Australia experienced extreme temperatures at some stage during the heatwave of December - January 2012-13.

BUSHFIRES 

January 4, 2013 - 40 bushfires ignited across Tasmania under severe to extreme fire danger conditions. 

January 8 - NSW Fire Commissioner Shane Fitzsimmons declares "One of the worst fire danger days on record for NSW".

In following weeks, major fires burn through more than 500,000ha of land. 

RAINFALL 

Between January 22 and 29, extreme rainfall occurred over the east coast of Queensland and northern NSW as a result of ex-tropical cyclone Oswald Rainfall during that period alone was heavy enough to break the January monthly rainfall records for the area between Rockhampton and Bundaberg. 

The one-day rainfall averaged over the Burnett catchment in Queensland was nearly 70% higher than the previous record.

On January 25 many areas around Rockhampton recorded rainfall for a 24-hour period in excess of 400 mm. Maryborough had a January daily rainfall record of 258.8mm

FLOODS 

Areas most affected by rain from ex-tropical cyclone Oswald were the Burnett catchment near Bundaberg in Queensland and the Clarence catchment near Grafton, NSW.

The flood peaked at 8.09m in Grafton, beating the 1890 record of 7.89m and 9.53 m in Bundaberg, beating the 1890 record of 9.04m.


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## white_goodman (5 March 2013)




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## Ijustnewit (5 March 2013)

My prediction is that March will also break all records for heat and dry in the South.
Melbourne , Hobart and Adelaide are being hammered by temps way over average and hot dry winds. The forecast out to about halfway through the month shows no relief on the way either. Here in Hobart I have not mowed the grass since October 2012 and now it's well and truly gone to god and we are continuing to get days around 30 which is 10 over average. Given the record cold winter in the Northern Hemisphere I think the Earth's axis is tilting more than it should be ?


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## Gringotts Bank (5 March 2013)

Never seen anything like this stretch in Melbourne.

Over 30 deg predicted every day *until March 14th.*

Something is out of whack.


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## Julia (5 March 2013)

Coolest and wettest summer I can remember in 20 years in SE Qld.  A couple of hot days but mostly cool, overcast and interminable ******* rain!
Today is the first time we've had any sign of the sun for more than a month.  It's spoiled by south east gale.


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## Sdajii (5 March 2013)

I think it's funny that so very soon after we started keeping climate records, people get surprised when we break a record!      

With thousands of possible records to be broken (we're not just saying 'hottest summer on record' or 'most rainfall in any one day', we're coming up with all these obscure ways to word up statistics and records), obviously we're going to break new ones every year. If we only started keeping proper records about 100 years ago it makes sense that we'll have broken even basic records like 'hottest day ever' and 'hottest month ever' quite a few times over the last 100 years. If you look at any particular record, 100 years after we started keeping records we'll probably break it at some point over the next 100 years if there is no climate change or anything funny going on. So what we're seeing is exactly what you would expect if there was no funny stuff going on with climate change, but we're all hopping around calling zohmaigawd. Our parents, grandparents, great grandparents and so on were surprised by particularly hot summers, cold winters, droughts and floods too.


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## Ijustnewit (5 March 2013)

A couple of stories just to hand , it's cooking in Melbourne and Adelaide .

http://www.weatherzone.com.au/news/melbourne-sets-its-gaze-on-record-heat/23917

http://www.weatherzone.com.au/news/adelaide-sweltering-through-long-run-of-march-heat/23905


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## orr (5 March 2013)

Sdajii said:


> I think it's funny that so very soon after we started keeping climate records, people get surprised when we break a record!
> 
> With thousands of possible records to be broken (we're not just saying 'hottest summer on record' or 'most rainfall in any one day', we're coming up with all these obscure ways to word up statistics and records), obviously we're going to break new ones every year. If we only started keeping proper records about 100 years ago it makes sense that we'll have broken even basic records like 'hottest day ever' and 'hottest month ever' quite a few times over the last 100 years. If you look at any particular record, 100 years after we started keeping records we'll probably break it at some point over the next 100 years if there is no climate change or anything funny going on. So what we're seeing is exactly what you would expect if there was no funny stuff going on with climate change, but we're all hopping around calling zohmaigawd. Our parents, grandparents, great grandparents and so on were surprised by particularly hot summers, cold winters, droughts and floods too.




Phew, Oh good every things alright then. Now there's just the creeping acidification of the ocean, but a couple of boxes of bi-carb ort'a fix that, what'a do ya reckon Sdaj?


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## medicowallet (5 March 2013)

The eternal loaded question topic..

OF COURSE we will get records upon records,

because the planet IS warming, even global warming "deniers" will admit that.......  

HUH?

Oh, it is the question of whether man made CO2 emissions are driving dangerous global warming that is the topic....


Something the warmist scaremongerers will avoid addressing at great lengths..

So here is to global warming, the unstoppable force, until we start a cooling trend towards another iceage, mini or large.  We have just exited a mini ice age believe it or not.

MW 
(A person who looks back past 100 years to research climate)


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## So_Cynical (5 March 2013)

Sdajii said:


> I think it's funny that so very soon after we started keeping climate records, people get surprised when we break a record!
> 
> With thousands of possible records to be broken (we're not just saying 'hottest summer on record' or 'most rainfall in any one day', we're coming up with all these obscure ways to word up statistics and records), obviously we're going to break new ones every year.




Yep no big deal, don't know what all the fuss is about...only 123 weather records were broken over the 90 days of summer, record temperatures set in all 6 states, brushfires in every state and territory, Tornado's and cyclones, record floods and rains...and we have only been keeping some records for 150 years.

No biggy.


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## prawn_86 (5 March 2013)

Personally, based on my own limited sample size of myself, i think the seasons have shifted back about a month from when i was young. It is now common for it to still be warm in March, and winter seems to drag well into September. Even the trees in Autumn lose their leaves later than they used to. I think this is probably just natural fluctuations as the seasons are just set to a man-made calander


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## Smurf1976 (5 March 2013)

In view of the runoff trend over the past 35 or so years in Tasmania, I'll wait to see what happens in March and especially April and May in order to see whether we're back to the drying trend or not.

Gut feel, and looking at the inflows to the water storages over the past few months I'd take a guess that the "rain hole" (my term) in Autumn is back after a bit of an absence the past few years. Time will tell but suffice to say there's stuff all inflows at the moment and in some catchments they are in fact negative. There's a bit coming in at some points but overall it's pretty minimal.

Water storages aren't a useful statistic so far however. With hydro-electric generators in general seeking to lower the dams regardless of inflows, the desal plants that have been built in various locations and the relatively short term (thus far) of the hot and dry weather there's not a lot to be gained by looking at lake levels thus far.

The sheer number of warm days is the real standout for me though. Not just the occasional one, but lots of warm to hot days even here in Tasmania which is a very unusual situation. With the odd exception, just about every day is warmer than the long term average it seems.


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## sptrawler (6 March 2013)

So_Cynical said:


> Yep no big deal, don't know what all the fuss is about...only 123 weather records were broken over the 90 days of summer, record temperatures set in all 6 states, brushfires in every state and territory, Tornado's and cyclones, record floods and rains...and we have only been keeping some records for 150 years.
> 
> No biggy.




No biggy at all.

We now have a carbon tax and the brown coal burning power stations are still running.

Weren't they meant to use the money to shut down the polluting power stations, Ifocus. lol

You really do pick some winners.lol


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## Sdajii (6 March 2013)

I'm not saying that there is no pollution problem or we don't need to worry about anything, but breaking all these records is statistically not meaningful. If you have no concept of statistics it might seem related, and I'm sure few of you will be able to grasp this and many will think me mad, but it's not valid evidence to show anything interesting is happening.

Climate change is going on, sure, but it always has, and contrary to popular belief it has been hotter than at present many times over the last few hundred million years, and we haven't even existed for most of that let alone had the opportunity to have any impact. The current rate of change is not at all unprecedented either, again contrary to popular belief (this is not controversial in climate science circles, it is just basic planetary climate history). Yep, humans are no doubt doing things which are interacting with the climate. Exactly how much is difficult to say, but so far nothing outside natural limits in terms of climate has happened. Pollution, yep, that's another story, we're trashing the place.

The main three reasons I'm not fussed about climate change coming and killing us are:

1) We may or may not be causing the climate to do something unnatural, and it may or may not be particularly harmful

2) Even if we can and it will, we're going to run out of critical planetary resources and be totally screwed before climate change has time to screw us anyway

3) Worrying about it will just cause me to be worried and won't help. Last time I checked, the human population was increasing, they're going to consume whether I'm worried or not. You can't change basic human nature. Human nature won't allow people to change and stop chugging resources. If the alarmist hysterics are right, well, we're screwed and nothing can be done about it. If I wasn't convinced the world was inevitably screwed for other reasons which were coming well within the next 50 years, and I thought it was possible for us to turn the climate around, yep, I might be fussing over it.

and maybe a bit of cynicism...

4) Even if human impact is the primary cause of current climate change (which is still within normal, natural limits and rates of change as compared to what it has normally, naturally been doing for hundreds of millions of years), the pathetic excuses for analysis and evidence which people use to show it are too pathetic to be given respect.


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## Tink (6 March 2013)

Gringotts Bank said:


> Never seen anything like this stretch in Melbourne.
> 
> Over 30 deg predicted every day *until March 14th.*
> 
> Something is out of whack.




Agree GB, then it starts heading off in the high 30s again.
I dont remember seeing so many high 30 days all at once with no change.
Melbourne has all seasons in one, I am missing it 
I am ready for the next season, though I heard it was going to be a cooler Autumn, but I am wondering.


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## Ijustnewit (6 March 2013)

Smurf1976 said:


> In view of the runoff trend over the past 35 or so years in Tasmania, I'll wait to see what happens in March and especially April and May in order to see whether we're back to the drying trend or not.
> 
> Gut feel, and looking at the inflows to the water storages over the past few months I'd take a guess that the "rain hole" (my term) in Autumn is back after a bit of an absence the past few years. Time will tell but suffice to say there's stuff all inflows at the moment and in some catchments they are in fact negative. There's a bit coming in at some points but overall it's pretty minimal.
> 
> ...




I would totally agree Smurf , the run of hot days in a row down here is really one out of the box. Yes the norm is we get a couple of warm to very warm days then back to average or below. This Summer and now March is seeing runs of 5 or more days. This particular period heading up to the 15th of March is really exceptional, still over the 30's well into next week. The forecast for today in Hobart is 32 degrees and it's already 30.5  here, so that will go for sure. The local ABC said last week the water storage levels where mostly good at the moment.There is another trough coming over from West Australia and will be here about the 18th so we should see more heat on the way. Not looking forward to that !!  I have heard the cause of all this is a failure of the monsoon this year , who knows ? All I know it's bloody hot for this part of the world and no sign of relief.


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## medicowallet (6 March 2013)

Ijustnewit said:


> I would totally agree Smurf , the run of hot days in a row down here is really one out of the box. Yes the norm is we get a couple of warm to very warm days then back to average or below. This Summer and now March is seeing runs of 5 or more days. This particular period heading up to the 15th of March is really exceptional, still over the 30's well into next week. The forecast for today in Hobart is 32 degrees and it's already 30.5  here, so that will go for sure. The local ABC said last week the water storage levels where mostly good at the moment.There is another trough coming over from West Australia and will be here about the 18th so we should see more heat on the way. Not looking forward to that !!  I have heard the cause of all this is a failure of the monsoon this year , who knows ? All I know it's bloody hot for this part of the world and no sign of relief.




As far as I can see this is definitely a good thing.

Last time I drove around melbourne, there were multitudes of supposedly hip people with big boofy hair wearing jeans in the heat, and this phenomenon was not just restricted to the men of Melbourne...


ANYTHING that gets melbournians from thinking they are dressing cool to actually dressing cool is a great thing.

MW


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## IFocus (6 March 2013)

Perth I think broke the record again for mean average temp for summer.


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## Smurf1976 (6 March 2013)

Almost 35 degrees again today in Hobart.

In a "normal" summer, even one day that hot would be considered newsworthy. It certainly was when I was a child, and proper hot days were quite an event because they just weren't common (and of course nobody had air-conditioners then either).

Anyway, once again there are fires and this one is in the Hobart suburban area about 1km from my house. The fire is on the Eastern Shore but smoke and a few flames are visible from the city center across the river.

The Fire Service is attending of course, but there's only so much they can do so it really depends on what the wind does now. Worst case if the wind turns Easterly then that will push the fire straight into residential areas. Let's hope not. 

It's cooling down tomorrow but then back up again in a few days' time. What we really need is some rain....


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## Ijustnewit (6 March 2013)

Smurf1976 said:


> Almost 35 degrees again today in Hobart.
> 
> In a "normal" summer, even one day that hot would be considered newsworthy. It certainly was when I was a child, and proper hot days were quite an event because they just weren't common (and of course nobody had air-conditioners then either).
> 
> ...




Smurf hang in there and all the best. I can see the fire clearly from my place at the top of Lenah Valley and have been watching it all afternoon. It seems to have broken over the ridge and heading down the Derwent Side. The whole hill is aglow now. Fingers crossed for everyone . The forecast ahead is not good either the BOM guy on the radio said expect about 37 sometime next week  , I don't know how much more of this we can take before we see any rain. I see that the North Island of New Zealand has now also been declared a drought area , second lowest rain fall on record .
All the best , keep us posted.


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## Smurf1976 (6 March 2013)

Ijustnewit said:


> Smurf hang in there and all the best. I can see the fire clearly from my place at the top of Lenah Valley and have been watching it all afternoon. It seems to have broken over the ridge and heading down the Derwent Side. The whole hill is aglow now.



Yep, it's on the city side of the ridge now and I can see flames from my kitchen window. I'm at Geilston Bay pretty much straight in line between the fire and the river at the moment.

On the good side, the wind is now blowing gently from the West which is pushing the fire back onto already burnt areas and away from me. The downside of that, is that if it goes too far then it will end up pushing the fire toward Cambridge and to my understanding that's what the fire brigade are worried about.

For the non-Hobart people reading this, all the locations mentioned here are within about 10km of the Hobart CBD. The fire is on the Eastern Shore, north of the Tasman Bridge. 

This picture from the Mercury newspaper illustrates the situation. Original article is here. http://www.themercury.com.au/article/2013/03/06/373963_todays-news.html


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## So_Cynical (6 March 2013)

Sdajii said:


> I'm not saying that there is no pollution problem or we don't need to worry about anything, but breaking all these records is statistically not meaningful. If you have no concept of statistics it might seem related, and I'm sure few of you will be able to grasp this and many will think me mad, but it's not valid evidence to show anything interesting is happening.
> 
> 
> Worrying about it will just cause me to be worried and won't help. Last time I checked, the human population was increasing, they're going to consume whether I'm worried or not. You can't change basic human nature. Human nature won't allow people to change and stop chugging resources. If the alarmist hysterics are right, well, we're screwed and nothing can be done about it. If I wasn't convinced the world was inevitably screwed for other reasons which were coming well within the next 50 years, and I thought it was possible for us to turn the climate around, yep, I might be fussing over it.




So its not statistically meaningful because there is nothing we can do about it so why worry ....WTF does that have to do with statistics and my understanding of them being meaningful or interesting.

Record high temperatures set in 6 states over a 90 day period, from latitude 42 to 16 and longitude 118 to 152 its unprecedented in recorded history, what's statistically uninteresting about that? they had to increase the temperature scale on the map FFS.


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## Tink (7 March 2013)

Look after yourself, Smurf.
Remember well the fires we had here, scary stuff.


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## Sdajii (7 March 2013)

So_Cynical said:


> So its not statistically meaningful because there is nothing we can do about it so why worry ....WTF does that have to do with statistics and my understanding of them being meaningful or interesting.
> 
> Record high temperatures set in 6 states over a 90 day period, from latitude 42 to 16 and longitude 118 to 152 its unprecedented in recorded history, what's statistically uninteresting about that? they had to increase the temperature scale on the map FFS.




That's not exactly what I'm saying and surely you're not actually interpreting it that way.

Okay, consider this. Assuming no climate change or problem, if we were to keep records for 500 years, when would you expect the hottest month on record to fall? How many times would you expect that record to be broken along the way?

Even if we have a serious problem, breaking all time records is not any sort of supportive evidence. That is supposed to happen, it's impossible for it not to happen. It's not the hottest month ever, it's just the hottest month in the last 200 years or so. There have been many hotter months even in the previous few hundred thousand years, including periods of thousands of years where months like this were normal and commonly exceeded. That's in recent planetary history and predates any human influence. 

What we're doing is like starting readings in June then in December panicking because we keep getting the hottest day on record. Contrary to popular belief, the climate change over the last 200 years (since humans had any hope of influencing it) is unremarkable compared to normal, natural climate fluctuations. Maybe we've made it zig rather than zag at a different time, but at most that's it. All this nonsense we hear is so out of context and often blatantly untrue.


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## Ijustnewit (9 March 2013)

Adelaide and Melbourne to get even hotter .

http://www.weatherzone.com.au/news/adelaide-and-melbourne-to-get-even-hotter/23966

Record heat across Northern Tasmania.

http://www.weatherzone.com.au/news/record-heat-across-northern-tasmania/23965


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## explod (9 March 2013)

Sdajii said:


> Even if we have a serious problem, breaking all time records is not any sort of supportive evidence. That is supposed to happen, it's impossible for it not to happen. It's not the hottest month ever, it's just the hottest month in the last 200 years or so. There have been many hotter months even in the previous few hundred thousand years, including periods of thousands of years where months like this were normal and commonly exceeded. That's in recent planetary history and predates any human influence.




In heat a few years back, 47 degrees actually along Belcome Creek Mount Martha Victoria, the race of ring tailed possums who had evolved there over millions of years fell out of the trees and became extinct. 

Now if one wants to do a bit of reading up there are recorded observations of many such instances around the world.  Just depends I suppose if you want to accept that we may have a problem or that it will go away if we ignore it.

I spoke of this instance some years back on ASF (climate thread I would say) and could not be bothered going back to find it.

My real point is,* How do you know it is not the hottest month ever?*


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## Smurf1976 (9 March 2013)

For some good news it seems that a period of very low cloud (which surrounded the fire), no wind and a bit of drizzle has pretty much put the fire out. 

It's still ridiculously warm in the northern end of Tas however, and I see that it's also very warm in SA and Vic too.


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## MrBurns (9 March 2013)

Very hot here in Vic and no sign of a break.

A great pity that the discussion on this is based around global warming presumably caused by human activity, who knows , I dont trust the sectors that gain financially.

The whole scene may change in a year or two.


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## Duckman#72 (10 March 2013)

MrBurns said:


> Very hot here in Vic and no sign of a break.
> 
> A great pity that the discussion on this is based around global warming presumably caused by human activity, who knows , I dont trust the sectors that gain financially.
> 
> The whole scene may change in a year or two.




Exactly. Here in Central Qld, the past three summers have been very mild. Quite overcast, and particularly this year the rain has been extraordinary. Our kids wore a light jumper to school last week as the nights and mornings have been so fresh.

It may well be climate change but how much influence do we actually have over it? Bugger all I'd say.

Duckman


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## Tink (10 March 2013)

Yes, very hot in Mellbourne, at least they are enjoying their long weekend, Friday afternoon was bumper to bumper with caravans and boats, heading out of the city.


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## DocK (10 March 2013)

Duckman#72 said:


> Exactly. Here in Central Qld, the past three summers have been very mild. Quite overcast, and particularly this year the rain has been extraordinary. Our kids wore a light jumper to school last week as the nights and mornings have been so fresh.
> 
> It may well be climate change but how much influence do we actually have over it? Bugger all I'd say.
> 
> Duckman




Indeed.  My tanks are full, my solar panels are all but idle, and I'm considering plans for an Ark.  Enough is enough.  At least, Duckman, you are physically equiped to deal with these conditions, if your username is valid


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## MrBurns (10 March 2013)

Tink said:


> Yes, very hot in Mellbourne, at least they are enjoying their long weekend, Friday afternoon was bumper to bumper with caravans and boats, heading out of the city.




I'm actually enjoying this as soon enough it will be dark and cold for months..........I hate that.


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## Duckman#72 (10 March 2013)

DocK said:


> Indeed.  My tanks are full, my solar panels are all but idle, and I'm considering plans for an Ark.  Enough is enough.  At least, Duckman, you are physically equiped to deal with these conditions, if your username is valid




Too much water for this Duck. Particularly Australia Day. Our road was evacuated by SES but they couldn't get to us.

As for solar panels we got our 44c rebated system installed two weeks ago and we hit our highest klw today - 17.5! Yay.shouldn't complain as it will be hot and dry soon enough.

Duckman


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## Smurf1976 (11 March 2013)

The heat is still going strong in Melbourne. http://www.examiner.com.au/story/1355306/melbourne-on-the-murray-as-city-bakes/?cs=12

And a record breaking run in March for Launceston. http://www.examiner.com.au/story/1354477/record-breaking-heat/?cs=95

Meanwhile the forecast for Adelaide today is 37 and it's 38 for tomorrow.


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## Sdajii (11 March 2013)

Explod: those ringtailed possums weren't isolated for millions of years! It was just a population of a very common species, not even an isolated one. It's not like it will take ringtailed possums long to repopulate!

How do we know it hasn't been the hottest ever? Because we have clear records of it being hotter many times before. Massive extinctions due to climate change have occurred all over the world. One neat example is a group of grasshoppers and geckos I worked with during my honours research (it was a climate research project by the way). Populations of these animals became extinct between 100, 000 and 200, 000 years ago (very recent but just before our species existed), they were wiped out of most of their distribution because conditions were too hot and dry. The extinctions were so widespread that the remaining populations were isolated into about five populations in central and western Australia. The climate improved and a bit over 100, 000 years ago they were able to spread out and once again cover most of mainland Australia... which they still do today. When the populations met up again they had turned into different species, when they interbred the DNA went weird (I could be more technical but it's beyond the scope of the discussion) and the hybrids were unable to have sex but laid eggs which hatched into clones of themselves. Those clone lines still exist in the wild today, so they're clones of animals which existed before humans existed. There are absolutely countless pieces of very clear evidence that the world has had more extreme heat than presen, repeatedly for hundreds of millions of years. No climate scientist disputes it.


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## sails (11 March 2013)

Smurf1976 said:


> The heat is still going strong in Melbourne. http://www.examiner.com.au/story/1355306/melbourne-on-the-murray-as-city-bakes/?cs=12
> 
> And a record breaking run in March for Launceston. http://www.examiner.com.au/story/1354477/record-breaking-heat/?cs=95
> 
> Meanwhile the forecast for Adelaide today is 37 and it's 38 for tomorrow.





And yet very pleasant here on the Gold Coast.  Maximums around 26-28 for the last week although  very humid due to showery weather.  It seems the high temperatures in the southern states is not nationwide but alarmists seem to only cherry pick whatever suits their agenda seemingly to fleece working people of more of their hard earned for a tax that won't help drop the temperatures by much, if anything.

The highest March temperature was 36.3 in 1993 and we have averaged around 28 so far.


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## Sdajii (11 March 2013)

There three types of lies: lies, damned lies and statistics.

These days it seems much easier for people to believe lies than facts.


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## sails (11 March 2013)

Sdajii said:


> There three types of lies: lies, damned lies and statistics.
> 
> These days it seems much easier for people to believe lies than facts.




Your post reminded me of Flannery's statements shown on the Bolt Report - drag the circle to the 19:50 mark the the "Spin of the Week":


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## Ijustnewit (12 March 2013)

12/03/2013 @3:07 PM . Currently 36.5 here in Hobart , record for March ( since written records of course ) is 37.3 . Not far to go now.


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## Gringotts Bank (12 March 2013)

Helps to have some distraction.

Some good smallish waves at Snapper.

Looks like the comp is still running

edit...wrong link?!  I think so.

http://www.coastalwatch.com/camera/...2200&state=NSW&t=2:17:35 PM&camName=Byron Bay


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## bunyip (12 March 2013)

I’m always partly amused, partly annoyed when someone yells ‘CLIMATE CHANGE’ because it’s the hottest month/year/summer/decade since records began.
If we had records going back 50 million years, or even just a few thousand, we’d find many hotter/colder/wetter/drier periods than any that have been recorded in the last 150 years or so since we started keeping records.

Five or six years ago my area registered the hottest winter day ever recorded, with 36 degrees twice in August. It was quite predictably cited as ‘proof’ of climate change and global warming. 
Two years later we broke the record twice in the same week for the coldest winter day on record. Nobody suggested it was proof of climate change or global *cooling.*
Parts of Britain and the US have in the last five years had their coldest winters on record. Again, nobody screams GLOBAL COOLING, yet they’re quick to say ‘global warming’ when we get a hot summer or two.

Chris Flannery, aka Captain Bulls*it, is a national disgrace for some of the ridiculous claims he’s made about climate change. One of the most laughable was his prediction just a few years ago that Lake Eyre would never fill again. Since then it’s filled two or three years running from heavy rainfall in the catchment of the Queensland river systems that feed it.


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## MrBurns (12 March 2013)

bunyip said:


> Chris Flannery, aka Captain Bulls*it, is a national disgrace for some of the ridiculous claims he’s made about climate change. One of the most laughable was his prediction just a few years ago that Lake Eyre would never fill again. Since then it’s filled two or three years running from heavy rainfall in the catchment of the Queensland river systems that feed it.




It's an industry now and Flannery has to justify his job, so you'll never really know the truth, he only sings from one song book.
Arent you so glad you're paying for him


----------



## explod (12 March 2013)

bunyip said:


> Two years later we broke the record twice in the same week for the coldest winter day on record. Nobody suggested it was proof of climate change or global *cooling.*
> Parts of Britain and the US have in the last five years had their coldest winters on record. Again, nobody screams GLOBAL COOLING, yet they’re quick to say ‘global warming’ when we get a hot summer or two.




Rubbish; it has often been claimed that global warming is contributing to both extremes.  In fact said it myself many times and why.

*Again*, the extra heat creates extra cloud which increases cooler areas where they have not been before and also unseasonal rain and extremes of it too.  The more frequent storms and cyclones are all part of these new effects.


----------



## Tink (12 March 2013)

MrBurns said:


> I'm actually enjoying this as soon enough it will be dark and cold for months..........I hate that.



Yes I dont mind the warm days, but days like today are too much - 37, or maybe because its just been ongoing.
Melbourne has always had a few days hot, then a cool change would come through, freshen it all up, then hot again, I like that. This constant heat is just never ending...
Spring and Autumn would be my favourite, as probably with all
Our winters arent really that cold, I do enjoy the change


----------



## MrBurns (12 March 2013)

Tink said:


> Yes I dont mind the warm days, but days like today are too much - 37, or maybe because its just been ongoing.
> Melbourne has always had a few days hot, then a cool change would come through, freshen it all up, then hot again, I like that. This constant heat is just never ending...
> Spring and Autumn would be my favourite, as probably with all
> Our winters arent really that cold, I do enjoy the change




Yes we arent getting the storms we used to get after the hot days either, better go water the garden


----------



## Miss Hale (12 March 2013)

Tink said:


> Yes I dont mind the warm days, but days like today are too much - 37, or maybe because its just been ongoing.
> Melbourne has always had a few days hot, then a cool change would come through, freshen it all up, then hot again, I like that. This constant heat is just never ending...
> Spring and Autumn would be my favourite, as probably with all
> Our winters arent really that cold, I do enjoy the change




You nailed it Tink.  It's the relentlessness of it that is hard to cope with. I don't mind the hot weather either but I really hate hot nights, barely sleep a wink  .  When you get the odd hot night or two here and there it bearable, but night after night...  I too love the vagaries of Melbourne weather but this isn't really typical Melbourne weather.

On the upside, I have discovered a lovely little suburban beach where I have spent the past two days so that has cheered me up a bit


----------



## Smurf1976 (12 March 2013)

36.6 in Hobart today which is a bit ridiculous for Tas in Autumn. 

But anyway, there's a positive side to all of this. Air-conditioners. People have air-conditioners, particularly in Vic and SA which have been getting the most heat. People turn those air-conditioners on, and to do so they need electricity.

Now add in the National Electricity Market which is working as usual to run the most inefficient, polluting plants possible whilst better ones are turned down in order to drive prices up. Prices went all the way to $12,500 today for a brief period, that's a lot higher than the $50 or so (with the carbon tax) that is "normal". Gotta love this "competition" stuff combined with hot weather.

All this is a dud for consumers of course but a nice little earner for the power industry.


----------



## Tink (12 March 2013)

Yes Mr Burns, we arent getting our storms anymore, sadly.

Agree, MissHale, so many complaining today with the lack of sleep after 26 degrees overnight, I too love the beach, but as said, this isnt normal Melbourne weather that we are used to.

Too true Smurf, airconditioners. I had a giggle coming home today in the car, and not one was enjoying this lovely summer weather, all windows up and air conditioners on.


----------



## prawn_86 (12 March 2013)

Personally I'm loving this Melbourne weather and would be happy if it were like this all the time with a cool change once every 8 or 9 days or so 

Have had no issue sleeping and enjoy the heat during the day.

I think Melbourne people have it built into them to complain about the weather no matter what, cause normally it is cr@p


----------



## Miss Hale (12 March 2013)

prawn_86 said:


> I think Melbourne people have it built into them to complain about the weather no matter what, cause normally it is cr@p




We don't complain about it we just like talking about it  and it's not normally crap it's just, ahem, interesting 

This is not normal Melbourne weather hence the complaints


----------



## Smurf1976 (12 March 2013)

I remember Summers when we didn't get even _one_ day this hot. This year however, it's happened so often that it doesn't even make the news anymore.

Climate change or not, it's certainly been an unusual run of hot days that's for sure.

Now, I wonder if there's much chance of us getting a Winter like parts of the Northern Hemisphere have had. That would be nice, build snowmen in the front yard and get up to all sorts of antics sliding down hills etc. Haven't done that in an urban area since I was a kid unfortunately as not enough snow has fallen since then.


----------



## Sdajii (13 March 2013)

explod said:


> Rubbish; it has often been claimed that global warming is contributing to both extremes.  In fact said it myself many times and why.
> 
> *Again*, the extra heat creates extra cloud which increases cooler areas where they have not been before and also unseasonal rain and extremes of it too.  The more frequent storms and cyclones are all part of these new effects.




So, you're using data which is exactly what you would expect if there was no climate change to prove climate change. Great!


----------



## bunyip (13 March 2013)

explod said:


> *Again*, the extra heat creates extra cloud which increases cooler areas where they have not been before and also unseasonal rain and extremes of it too.  The more frequent storms and cyclones are all part of these new effects.




If we had records going back thousands of years, we’d find that the current weather patterns are just a repeat of what’s happened many times before. 

The shorter the timeframe over which we view weather patterns, the more likely that we’ll see seemingly abnormal weather events setting new records _*within that time frame*_. 
Extend that timeframe out by six or eight or ten times, and the so called ‘record’ heatwaves, cold snaps, cyclones, droughts, floods etc. would clearly be no record at all, but rather just a normal part of the huge variation in weather patterns that form our climate.


----------



## bunyip (13 March 2013)

MrBurns said:


> It's an industry now and Flannery has to justify his job, so you'll never really know the truth, he only sings from one song book.





Exactly. And not just Flannery either – there are many others just like him whose jobs depend on them preaching the government’s line about climate change. 

There are many well-credentialed and respected climate researchers who disagree with the climate change mantra being spruiked by government and the media. 
The media aren’t interested in them because they don’t provide the sensational, attention-grabbing headlines that idiots like Flannery provide by making outrageous claims.
And the government isn’t interested in them because they provide no excuse for new taxes such as the carbon tax which is nothing more than a money grab by a cash-strapped government.


----------



## explod (13 March 2013)

> bunyip;760028]If we had records going back thousands of years, we’d find that the current weather patterns are just a repeat of what’s happened many times before.




Would we, how do you know?



> The shorter the time frame over which we view weather patterns, the more likely that we’ll see seemingly abnormal weather events setting new records _*within that time frame*_.
> Extend that time-frame out by six or eight or ten times, and the so called ‘record’ heatwaves, cold snaps, cyclones, droughts, floods etc. would clearly be no record at all, but rather just a normal part of the huge variation in weather patterns that form our climate.




And what of the icecaps breaking up/melting and exposing methane that has been trapped for millions of years now also adding to the increasing temperatures according to general scientific discussion.  And I say those last three words because we can only go by our anecdotal observations in these discussions as the so called distortions on which, who or what are right or wrong is buried within the  extremes of views.  A bit like religion's beliefs.  The indoctrinated are unable to think and see for themselves unfortunately.  It is why I am so dogmatic about education.


----------



## explod (13 March 2013)

Sdajii said:


> So, you're using data which is exactly what you would expect if there was no climate change to prove climate change. Great!






> cientists have pieced together a picture of Earth’s climate, dating back hundreds of thousands of years, by analyzing a number of indirect measures of climate such as ice cores, tree rings, glacier lengths, pollen remains, and ocean sediments, and by studying changes in Earth’s orbit around the sun. [1]
> 
> The historical record shows that the climate system varies naturally over a wide range of time scales. In general, climate changes prior to the Industrial Revolution in the 1700s can be explained by natural causes, such as changes in solar energy, volcanic eruptions, and natural changes in greenhouse gas (GHG) concentrations. [1]
> 
> ...




Full item at http://www.epa.gov/climatechange/science/causes.html

And a good chart of the rise from 1900 to 2000

Anyway we are probably going to have to start a thread for *the hottest February* and looks like also the *hottest March* may get a run too.


----------



## bunyip (13 March 2013)

explod said:


> Would we, how do you know?
> 
> 
> 
> And what of the icecaps breaking up/melting and exposing methane that has been trapped for millions of years now also adding to the increasing temperatures according to general scientific discussion.  And I say those last three words because we can only go by our anecdotal observations in these discussions as the so called distortions on which, who or what are right or wrong is buried within the  extremes of views.  A bit like religion's beliefs.  The indoctrinated are unable to think and see for themselves unfortunately.  It is why I am so dogmatic about education.




Explod old mate....I’m not even interested in debating you on this one. If you think that records kept for 150 years are proof of anything, then I think you’re kidding yourself.

As for methane and the ice caps and whatever else you’ve claimed....this isn't the first time I've seen it presented as evidence of climate change. And I could quote you info from well credentialed people that disputes the info you’ve quoted. And around and around in circles we’d go. 
Not interested – believe whatever you want.


----------



## Knobby22 (13 March 2013)

Love the cool change today in Melbourne. 
Just refreshing. Might get a shower tomorrow.

I was on a camp all last week, got back Monday night. On Sunday and Monday the gums were dropping their branches. I heard 3 drop Sunday night. I think that may be a sign they were lacking water.?

The El Niño must have kicked in, though I haven't heard it reported.


----------



## explod (13 March 2013)

bunyip said:


> Explod old mate....I’m not even interested in debating you on this one. If you think that records kept for 150 years are proof of anything, then I think you’re kidding yourself.




Well if you are not interested in debating me why are you in the thread at all.  And I do not think that my own view based on observations over my lifetime (close to the land) are beliefs.

It is not in concrete to the general community I agree, but we *may* have a problem *most* will agree, and to that we should be doing something about it for our future generations.

And do not say we cannot, changing the community mindset, as is happening, will bring about change.


----------



## Julia (13 March 2013)

Knobby22 said:


> Love the cool change today in Melbourne.
> Just refreshing. Might get a shower tomorrow.
> 
> I was on a camp all last week, got back Monday night. On Sunday and Monday the gums were dropping their branches. I heard 3 drop Sunday night. I think that may be a sign they were lacking water.?
> ...



Well now, Knobby, from Queensland I can tell you this has been the coolest, wettest summer in the 20 years that I've lived here.  And I can further assure you the wet weather has not in the slightest modified the constant falling of branches and even more constant shedding of thousands of bloody gum leaves from my neighbour's oversized gum tree, filling my pool daily and covering all the paving and flower beds.


----------



## DocK (13 March 2013)

Julia said:


> Well now, Knobby, from Queensland I can tell you this has been the coolest, wettest summer in the 20 years that I've lived here.  And I can further assure you the wet weather has not in the slightest modified the constant falling of branches and even more constant shedding of thousands of bloody gum leaves from my neighbour's oversized gum tree, filling my pool daily and covering all the paving and flower beds.




+100  I'm wishing I could put in one of these:


----------



## Ijustnewit (13 March 2013)

Knobby22 said:


> Love the cool change today in Melbourne.
> Just refreshing. Might get a shower tomorrow.
> 
> I was on a camp all last week, got back Monday night. On Sunday and Monday the gums were dropping their branches. I heard 3 drop Sunday night. I think that may be a sign they were lacking water.?
> ...




Also enjoying the cooler change today in Hobart , although the winds are around 60 - 100 KM an hour so a few fires have flared up again. The latest word out from the BOM is that the high temps are set to return from about next Tuesday onwards with another very hot frontal system combined with a similar high pressure system as the last one. Just can't wait for that , NOT !!


----------



## Miss Hale (13 March 2013)

DocK said:


> +100  I'm wishing I could put in one of these:
> View attachment 51298




Julia and DocK, we had the same problem with leaves in the pool at our last place and found a pool cover solved 90% of the problem (just one of those solar ones that sits on the surface of the water).  The problem with that big glass one is that it would be way too hot here under that in summer  

Cooler here today in Victoria too. I'm not lookin gto the forecast heat next week either.  I heard someone from BOM on the TV the other day and he said to expect this hot weather more or less until the end of March 

MTA:  Actually is it glass or a flywire sort of thing


----------



## DocK (13 March 2013)

Miss Hale said:


> Julia and DocK, we had the same problem with leaves in the pool at our last place and found a pool cover solved 90% of the problem (just one of those solar ones that sits on the surface of the water).  The problem with that big glass one is that it would be way too hot here under that in summer
> 
> Cooler here today in Victoria too. I'm not lookin gto the forecast heat next week either.  I heard someone from BOM on the TV the other day and he said to expect this hot weather more or less until the end of March
> 
> MTA:  Actually is it glass or a flywire sort of thing




Mesh - meant to let the breeze in, but keep the bugs and leaves etc out.  When I win lotto I'm going to get some quotes 

We'll probably put a cover over the pool in winter - but ours is just off our family room and provides a lovely view from its windows.  Looking at a pool cover just wouldn't be the same.


----------



## medicowallet (13 March 2013)

explod said:


> Full item at http://www.epa.gov/climatechange/science/causes.html
> 
> And a good chart of the rise from 1900 to 2000
> 
> Anyway we are probably going to have to start a thread for *the hottest February* and looks like also the *hottest March* may get a run too.




Yes, surely this is truly representative of dangerous global warming driven by manmade co2 emissions.

Although only if:

We disregard the little ice age, medieval warm period, and any other cooling or warming periods before 1900 which were not driven by man made co2 emissions.

Spare us the unscientific dogma... how much has CO2 in the atmosphere increased over the past 17 years, and how much has temperature increased over the past 17 years?

Sure, don't let local weather get in the way of a global warming debate..

MW


----------



## IFocus (13 March 2013)

Knobby22 said:


> Love the cool change today in Melbourne.
> Just refreshing. Might get a shower tomorrow.
> 
> I was on a camp all last week, got back Monday night. On Sunday and Monday the gums were dropping their branches. I heard 3 drop Sunday night. I think that may be a sign they were lacking water.?
> ...





Around Perth trees are just stressed and dying unfortunately cannot say I see a lot of branches falling


----------



## Julia (13 March 2013)

DocK said:


> +100  I'm wishing I could put in one of these:
> ]



I had a quote for a very similar structure:  around $15K plus immense destruction in the erection process to the landscaping by bringing post digging machines etc across lawns and garden beds.  The main posts have to be set in 1.5 metre deep concrete, so paving has to be taken up etc.  Quite apart from the cost, which would have overcapitalised the house, I just didn't like the potential look of it amongst my otherwise attractive garden.



Miss Hale said:


> Julia and DocK, we had the same problem with leaves in the pool at our last place and found a pool cover solved 90% of the problem (just one of those solar ones that sits on the surface of the water).



OK, so how then did you remove the leaves from the pool cover, Miss Hale?  We have the pool cover sitting on the water, covered all over with leaves:  where to from there?
In my situation there is nowhere suitable to blow them off with a leaf blower, ditto hosing them off (even if running round three times a day with a hose was desirable).




DocK said:


> Mesh - meant to let the breeze in, but keep the bugs and leaves etc out.  When I win lotto I'm going to get some quotes
> 
> We'll probably put a cover over the pool in winter - but ours is just off our family room and provides a lovely view from its windows.  Looking at a pool cover just wouldn't be the same.



It's not.  In desperation, we have erected a large (full pool size) heavy duty tarp, slung by ropes and elastics from the patio roof on one side to the fence or trees on the other side.  It is sloping downwards so that the leaves fall forward onto the paving so can be swept up, and the angle also allows rainwater to largely run off.

The plus is that it keeps the water cool in summer and actually keeps some of the heat in during winter with the ropes lowered so that the edges of the tarp rest against the pool coping.  Further plus is that one tarp lasts for about 6 years and costs not much over $100 plus replacing the stretch ties annually.

The negative is that it looks awful and it's very inconvenient having to duck under ropes every time you walk around the pool.

There should be a height limit on trees in small suburban back yards imo.


----------



## Smurf1976 (14 March 2013)

Ijustnewit said:


> Also enjoying the cooler change today in Hobart , although the winds are around 60 - 100 KM an hour so a few fires have flared up again.



Mt Wellington recorded 124 km/h wind this afternoon so that's more than enough wind I think. It seems that if we're not being fried then we'll be blown away instead.

With those conditions it's no surprise that we have fires back again unfortunately. It's a few hundred meters from my property at the moment....


----------



## chops_a_must (14 March 2013)

Julia said:


> There should be a height limit on trees in small suburban back yards imo.




Whilst acknowledging your inconvenience, trees in urban areas provide great benefit:

http://arts.monash.edu.au/ges/research/climate/streettrees.php


----------



## Tink (14 March 2013)

Knobby22 said:


> Love the cool change today in Melbourne.
> Just refreshing. Might get a shower tomorrow.
> 
> I was on a camp all last week, got back Monday night. On Sunday and Monday the gums were dropping their branches. I heard 3 drop Sunday night. I think that may be a sign they were lacking water.?
> ...




I always thought certain gum trees had that problem with dropping branches, thats just what they did, not to mention, they explode in a fire.
I am enjoying the cool change too, and rain in store for the weekend, my garden will be smiling


----------



## bunyip (14 March 2013)

Miss Hale said:


> Julia and DocK, we had the same problem with leaves in the pool at our last place and found a pool cover solved 90% of the problem




Our pool was a constant hassle with leaves falling into it. So I sold the pool....that solved _*100%*_ of the problem!


----------



## bunyip (14 March 2013)

explod said:


> Well if you are not interested in debating me why are you in the thread at all.



Wasn’t aware that I owed you any explanation as to why I’ve posted on this or any other thread.
But since you’ve asked....I simply wanted to add a bit of balance to the thread by pointing out that a period of unusually hot/dry/wet/cold weather is no proof of climate change.



explod said:


> And I do not think that my own view based on observations over my lifetime (close to the land) are beliefs.



Of course not – your observations are proof of climate change!



explod said:


> It is not in concrete to the general community I agree, but we *may* have a problem *most* will agree, and to that we should be doing something about it for our future generations.



I’m not disagreeing with you. Yes, we _*may*_ have a problem. From a health perspective alone it can’t be good for us to spew vast amounts of pollution into the air we breathe, quite apart from any longer term effect it *may* have on the climate.



explod said:


> And do not say we cannot, changing the community mindset, as is happening, will bring about change.



You may be interested to know that I have a solar hot water system and a solar power system that produces well in excess of my own power requirements.


----------



## Ijustnewit (14 March 2013)

Smurf1976 said:


> Mt Wellington recorded 124 km/h wind this afternoon so that's more than enough wind I think. It seems that if we're not being fried then we'll be blown away instead.
> 
> With those conditions it's no surprise that we have fires back again unfortunately. It's a few hundred meters from my property at the moment....




Yes Smurf was thinking of you last night. We where sitting on the deck watching the fire creep it's way down the hill. It doesn't seem to have come much further overnight and looks like it's just smoldering . I can't believe they didn't try and completely put it out when we had those showers the other day. Maybe it's hard to access?


----------



## bunyip (14 March 2013)

The information in this link suggests that the past few thousand years have produced cyclones just as powerful or even more powerful than the worst cyclones we’ve experienced in the last century or so since records began.

Presumably some of these super cyclones were accompanied by massive rainfalls resulting in huge floods that may have exceeded the biggest floods on record. 

http://www.abc.net.au/catalyst/stories/s382613.htm


----------



## Miss Hale (14 March 2013)

Julia said:


> OK, so how then did you remove the leaves from the pool cover, Miss Hale?  We have the pool cover sitting on the water, covered all over with leaves:  where to from there?
> In my situation there is nowhere suitable to blow them off with a leaf blower, ditto hosing them off (even if running round three times a day with a hose was desirable).




We just used to sweep/rake them off before rolling the pool cover up when we wanted to use the pool.  A few would end up in the pool but they were easily removed with the skimmer thing on a stick.


----------



## Smurf1976 (14 March 2013)

Ijustnewit said:


> Yes Smurf was thinking of you last night. We where sitting on the deck watching the fire creep it's way down the hill. It doesn't seem to have come much further overnight and looks like it's just smoldering . I can't believe they didn't try and completely put it out when we had those showers the other day. Maybe it's hard to access?



Yep, that's the hill I'm on but a bit further down.

In terms of access, there are some tracks up there that a vehicle could get through but a lot of it is harder to access (I go walking up there quite often during Winter). I was wandering why they can't just water bomb like crazy even on the calm days and put out, but I'm thinking that there must be some logic to what they are doing. Sure hope so.

On a positive note, the forecast for Saturday and Sunday is for a top of 17 degrees and showers. With a bit of luck that might actually put the fires out.


----------



## Sdajii (15 March 2013)

Bunyip: It would be astonishing if it was more than a few thousand years since there had been cyclones as strong as what we've seen in recent times (last 200 years or so).

People seem to think climate only started around 150years ago or that it was magically stagnant until then.

The world's largest wetland (Kakadu) wasn't even a wetland until a few thousand years ago.

Most of us will at some stage have heard of climate change so extreme that it created then flooded many times land bridges between Australia and PNG! That's some pretty freaking massive climate change! That has happened multiple times even in fairly recent (last couple hundred thousand years) times. Even if humans are having an impact, it is not doing anything appreciable compared to nature's normal fluctuations. Imagine if we did something so tremendous as creating a land bridge between Australia and PNG! Or radically turning Australia from a land of forest to a land of desert! Or flooding a massive area of land and making it a virtually unusable wetland. Thousands of these things go on all over the world very often, it's normal and natural, but a few hot days and everyone panics! Silly people


----------



## Knobby22 (15 March 2013)

Tink said:


> I always thought certain gum trees had that problem with dropping branches, thats just what they did, not to mention, they explode in a fire.
> I am enjoying the cool change too, and rain in store for the weekend, my garden will be smiling




Yes, I believe you and Julia are correct. Hey, I'm a city dweller.


----------



## bunyip (15 March 2013)

Sdajii said:


> Bunyip: It would be astonishing if it was more than a few thousand years since there had been cyclones as strong as what we've seen in recent times (last 200 years or so).




I agree.
I think the research is simply pointing out that we can look back many hundreds or even thousands of years in history and find climatic events that were well in excess of any that have happened in the last 150 years since we started keeping records. 



Sdajii said:


> People seem to think climate only started around 150years ago or that it was magically stagnant until then.



Yes, it's very naive thinking. 
I still remember Kevin Rudd on TV, standing in front of a dry, desolate looking lake bed in western NSW, an animal skeleton clearly visible behind him. And with that ‘_Would I lie to you?’_ look on his face, claiming that the scene behind him was proof of man-made climate change.





Sdajii said:


> Most of us will at some stage have heard of climate change so extreme that it created then flooded many times land bridges between Australia and PNG! That's some pretty freaking massive climate change! That has happened multiple times even in fairly recent (last couple hundred thousand years) times. Even if humans are having an impact, it is not doing anything appreciable compared to nature's normal fluctuations. Imagine if we did something so tremendous as creating a land bridge between Australia and PNG! Or radically turning Australia from a land of forest to a land of desert! Or flooding a massive area of land and making it a virtually unusable wetland. Thousands of these things go on all over the world very often, it's normal and natural, but a few hot days and everyone panics! Silly people



The dinosaur footprints at Lark Quarry, near the outback Queensland town of Winton, or more specifically, the desert country in which they’re found, is another example of dramatic climatic events that occurred millions of years before man ever started doing any of the things that are now being blamed for climate change. 
The area was swamp and wetlands when the footprints were made. Anyone whose been out there and seen them, as I have a couple of times, will see no indication that this arid desert area was once a lush green wetlands environment.


----------



## Ijustnewit (26 March 2013)

The heat is back and starting to fire up in the Southeast.  Melbourne back into the mid thirties , Hobart the low thirties hot dry and strong winds and total fire bans again. It's nearly April 
My prediction of the Hottest March on written records is looking certain now.

http://www.weatherzone.com.au/news/melbournes-temperatures-bounce-into-easter/24137


----------



## basilio (26 March 2013)

Ijustnewit said:


> The heat is back and starting to fire up in the Southeast.  Melbourne back into the mid thirties , Hobart the low thirties hot dry and strong winds and total fire bans again. It's nearly April
> My prediction of the Hottest March on written records is looking certain now.
> 
> http://www.weatherzone.com.au/news/melbournes-temperatures-bounce-into-easter/24137




I wouldn't be betting on this March being the hottest on record mate.

Very unlikely to happen despite the string of 30 plus days.

Check the records for 1940.  They had a ridiculous heat wave which resulted in an average maximum for the month of 28.9C.  We'll see

http://indymedia.org.au/2013/03/12/melbourne-heatwave-a-sizzling-autumn-end-to-an-angry-summer


----------



## Ijustnewit (26 March 2013)

basilio said:


> I wouldn't be betting on this March being the hottest on record mate.
> 
> Very unlikely to happen despite the string of 30 plus days.
> 
> ...




Hobart is sitting @ 23 deg daily average , record is 22.9 and with tomorrow it's as good as gone.
Melbourne will go very close currently 28.3 max average , so as you said we'll see.


----------



## Ijustnewit (29 March 2013)

*Hobart on target for hottest March on record.*

http://www.weatherzone.com.au/news/hobart-on-target-for-hottest-march-on-record/24162

I think this year my air conditioners will get more use than the gas heating 

I can't wait to see some snow on those mountains , but it seems a long way off .


----------



## Smurf1976 (30 March 2013)

Ijustnewit said:


> *Hobart on target for hottest March on record.*
> 
> http://www.weatherzone.com.au/news/hobart-on-target-for-hottest-march-on-record/24162
> 
> ...



There was a significant fall of rain across most of the state (Tas) recently, some parts up to 180mm over the past 2 weeks, but overall the warm / dry trend does seem to be intact.

Bureau of Meteorology outlook is for cool (especially nights) and dry over Autumn. That is, relatively little cloud compared to normal.


----------



## Ijustnewit (2 April 2013)

Ijustnewit said:


> The heat is back and starting to fire up in the Southeast.  Melbourne back into the mid thirties , Hobart the low thirties hot dry and strong winds and total fire bans again. It's nearly April
> My prediction of the Hottest March on written records is looking certain now.
> 
> http://www.weatherzone.com.au/news/melbournes-temperatures-bounce-into-easter/24137




It's official* Hottest March on Record*

http://www.abc.net.au/news/2013-04-02/hottest-march-on--record/4605606?section=tas


----------



## basilio (2 April 2013)

> Quote Originally Posted by Ijustnewit View Post
> The heat is back and starting to fire up in the Southeast. Melbourne back into the mid thirties , Hobart the low thirties hot dry and strong winds and total fire bans again. It's nearly April
> My prediction of the Hottest March on written records is looking certain now.




http://www.weatherzone.com.au/news/m...o-easter/24137

It's interesting how miscommunication can occur.  When Ijustnewit put up his post suggesting that March would be the hottest month on record I thought he was referring to Melbournes weather and suggested that probably wouldn't happen.

In fact of course Melbourne didn't have its hottest  March on record - but Tasmania did  ! So if one is not *too *specific you can always be right. 

Cheers  !!


----------



## Ijustnewit (2 April 2013)

basilio said:


> http://www.weatherzone.com.au/news/m...o-easter/24137
> 
> It's interesting how miscommunication can occur.  When Ijustnewit put up his post suggesting that March would be the hottest month on record I thought he was referring to Melbournes weather and suggested that probably wouldn't happen.
> 
> ...




Yeah Sorry Bas , I was banging on about Tassie ( as usual )  , I should have made it clearer ...oops


----------



## drsmith (8 April 2013)

Perth is not far off the hottest April day on record of 37.6 set on the 9th in 1910.

Top so far today: 36.8. Currently: 36.4 with a NNW wind.


----------



## sails (8 April 2013)

drsmith said:


> Perth is not far off the hottest April day on record of 37.6 set on the 9th in 1910.
> 
> Top so far today: 36.8. Currently: 36.4 with a NNW wind.





lol - I wonder what made it the same temp 103 years ago.  That blows the warming and climate change theories, surely...


----------



## Some Dude (8 April 2013)

sails said:


> lol - I wonder what made it the same temp 103 years ago.  That blows the warming and climate change theories, surely...




If the theory postulated that a certain temperature level could not occur 103 years ago. Do the climate change theories postulate that?


----------



## Sdajii (8 April 2013)

Records only started being taken recently (within the last 200 years). In the first year of taking records for every particular place, all records were set. Within the next five years the majority were broken. Were people stupid enough to jump up and down saying it was meaningful in some way or did they realise that unless you're breaking an exceptional number of records *thousands* of years after you start taking records, or the records are significantly above the previous records it doesn't matter at all? Obviously they weren't crying disaster, but we are making that idiotic mistake now. We also find more and more obscure records to break; most days above x in a row in such and such particular month, most days with x precipitation within a such and such period... the fact that there are gajillions of records being broken shows that there are gajillions of things being formulated in order to create the illusion of things happening which are not.

It doesn't matter at all if we break some record set over 100 years ago by a fraction of one degree - it would be statistically astonishing if we weren't breaking records all the time, even if there was no climate change, and climate change is a completely natural thing anyway, and the actual evidence doesn't point to it having been sent out of whack. We presumably are influencing the climate, but there's no evidence (other than concocted nonsense posing as evidence) to show that we have changed things, so we really can't say by how much, or even if we're making things hotter or cooler than they naturally would have been, or whether we're making things better or worse than they naturally would have been.


----------



## Some Dude (8 April 2013)

Sdajii said:


> It doesn't matter at all if we break some record set over 100 years ago by a fraction of one degree - it would be statistically astonishing if we weren't breaking records all the time, even if there was no climate change, and climate change is a completely natural thing anyway, and the actual evidence doesn't point to it having been sent out of whack.




Could you cite the source and research for the actual evidence that you refer to please?


----------



## Ijustnewit (8 April 2013)

Some Dude said:


> Could you cite the source and research for the actual evidence that you refer to please?




*Hobart is running hot*

A 15 Month streak of above average temperatures. This April is already looking like going that way as well.
Article Below

http://www.weatherzone.com.au/news/hobart-is-running-hot/24205


----------



## Knobby22 (9 April 2013)

Ijustnewit said:


> *Hobart is running hot*
> 
> A 15 Month streak of above average temperatures. This April is already looking like going that way as well.
> Article Below
> ...




Bit scary.


----------



## Sdajii (9 April 2013)

Some Dude said:


> Could you cite the source and research for the actual evidence that you refer to please?




Are you kidding me? It's so self evident that asking for a reference is like asking for proof and references to confirm that daytime temperatures are typically warmer than night temperatures.

It's 11.15am, the temperature is the hottest it has been all day! Every half hour for the last few hours the temperature record has been broken! At this rate I'm going to cook to death before the end of the week! We're all doomed!


----------



## Some Dude (9 April 2013)

Sdajii said:


> Are you kidding me? It's so self evident that asking for a reference is like asking for proof and references to confirm that daytime temperatures are typically warmer than night temperatures.
> 
> It's 11.15am, the temperature is the hottest it has been all day! Every half hour for the last few hours the temperature record has been broken! At this rate I'm going to cook to death before the end of the week! We're all doomed!




I apologise for being unclear, I did not copy the correct portion of your original post. I have highlighted the portion that I was intending to ask about.



Sdajii said:


> It doesn't matter at all if we break some record set over 100 years ago by a fraction of one degree - it would be statistically astonishing if we weren't breaking records all the time, even if there was no climate change, and climate change is a completely natural thing anyway, and the actual evidence doesn't point to it having been sent out of whack. _We presumably are influencing the climate, *but there's no evidence (other than concocted nonsense posing as evidence) to show that we have changed things*, so we really can't say by how much, or even if we're making things hotter or cooler than they naturally would have been, or whether we're making things better or worse than they naturally would have been._




Climate scientists seem to disagree with your statement that there is no evidence to show that we have changed things. I assume you are referring to their evidence as concocted nonsense posing as evidence?

If so then:



Some Dude said:


> Could you cite the source and research for the actual evidence that you refer to please?




In other words, what evidence informs your opinion on the subject?


----------



## Smurf1976 (9 April 2013)

Ijustnewit said:


> *Hobart is running hot*
> 
> A 15 Month streak of above average temperatures. This April is already looking like going that way as well.



I was in Launceston today. It was as though it was literally Summer - people wearing shorts etc and sure didn't feel like normal April weather to me.


----------



## Sdajii (10 April 2013)

Somedude: Obviously you can't ask someone to demonstrate that something isn't there. That's like me asking you to find a peer reviewed reference which says I am not king of Mars and all the Martians. It doesn't exist, but not because it is true. Obviously it is not true.

If you want to play the 'let's refer to specific references' game, hey, you pick one and we can dissect it to you heart's content. There is so much myth and vague belief that 'the climate scientists unanimously agree that humans have radically altered the climate which would otherwise have remained at a natural and constant level without any fluctuation at all'. That's just not the case.

The funding is all biased. There is no funding available for scientists who seek to find that everything is fine and nothing is going on. No one wants to put masses of money and time into making their own department redundant. I left a career in science, and no small part of that was being sick of the stupid bias and dishonesty.


----------



## Some Dude (10 April 2013)

Sdajii said:


> Somedude: Obviously you can't ask someone to demonstrate that something isn't there. That's like me asking you to find a peer reviewed reference which says I am not king of Mars and all the Martians. It doesn't exist, but not because it is true. Obviously it is not true.




But can cite evidence for the obviously positive claim:



Sdajii said:


> We presumably are influencing the climate, but there's no evidence (*other than concocted nonsense posing as evidence*) to show that we have changed things, so we really can't say by how much, or even if we're making things hotter or cooler than they naturally would have been, or whether we're making things better or worse than they naturally would have been.




In other words, you are asserting that the evidence accepted by the overwhelming majority of climate scientists is concoted nonsense posing as evidence. Can you provide the evidence for this assertion?



Sdajii said:


> If you want to play the 'let's refer to specific references' game, hey, you pick one and we can dissect it to you heart's content.




If I was being really specific, I would highlight that you are in fact making an assertion when you say "there is no evidence". It's akin to asserting that there is no God. It's not falsifiable so it has limited use as a statement of truth or fact. More pertinently, there is evidence, you just happen to disagree with the conclusions drawn from it.

I'm happy with my selection above with regard to my identification of an assertion i.e. can cite any viable reference, research, etc for your claim that the evidence is concocted.



Sdajii said:


> There is so much myth and vague belief that 'the climate scientists unanimously agree that humans have radically altered the climate which would otherwise have remained at a natural and constant level without any fluctuation at all'. That's just not the case.




I agree, it is not unanimous and I am unsure why you would choose that word in this context. The Big Bang theory is not unanimously accepted by physicists either. There is however in both cases an overwhelming majority 
in the respective fields of the relevant scientists who do agree which forms the current scientific consensus.



Sdajii said:


> The funding is all biased.




Please demonstrate or cite reference to something viable for this assertion.



Sdajii said:


> There is no funding available for scientists who seek to find that everything is fine and nothing is going on. No one wants to put masses of money and time into making their own department redundant.




I doubt that but I assume you meant colloquially. In some ways, it reminds me of Intelligent Design proponents complaining that funding is not available for ID when there is no viable research track that can be associated with the asserted destination. Why would anyone other than those with a vested or ideological interest throw money at an argument that has been had and agreed upon already by a scientific consensus without compelling reason?



Sdajii said:


> I left a career in science, and no small part of that was being sick of the stupid bias and dishonesty.




What was your field of science?


----------



## Sdajii (10 April 2013)

I see. Interesting that you would compare saying the climate change bandwagon is a load of nonsense to saying there is no god. I also believe there is no god, and similarly, I can't 'prove' a negative. But the lack of proof of a negative is not reason to believe the positive.

Just as with debating religion with a religious person, I see there is no point discussing climate change with you.

Out of curiosity, do you believe in god?


----------



## Garpal Gumnut (10 April 2013)

May I state that it was a bloody hot summer.

I'll fight anyone who says it was not.

gg


----------



## wayneL (10 April 2013)

Garpal Gumnut said:


> May I state that it was a bloody hot summer.
> 
> I'll fight anyone who says it was not.
> 
> gg




I am still waiting for my stuff to arrive from NZ.

Believing the stories of conditions more akin to Mercury than Earth, I didn't bring any warm clothes.

My @ss is freezing off right now


----------



## Some Dude (11 April 2013)

Sdajii said:


> Just as with debating religion with a religious person, I see there is no point discussing climate change with you.




I have spent virtually all of my life being prepared and able to discuss what people prosthelytise about. I'm one of those people who invite the JW's et al. in and ask them "So what do you believe and why". It has been my experience that people in general have a large amount of confidence in the former i.e. their belief, combined with what can appear from the outside as an astonishing lack of coherency, or ability to communicate veracity, in the later i.e. the why. When someone says something akin to "because the bible tells me so", it's very obvious what the next question should be i.e. "Why should we believe the bible", but as you can imagine, most of the conversations end briefly after that as they are usually unprepared for someone who does not hold the same presuppositions that they do.

I even had one of them ask me whether I had a mental disorder because they could not understand how I would risk going to hell for the sake of comprehension that they felt was not God's responsibility to give. They were the exception though as most of them were very polite and courteous 



Sdajii said:


> Out of curiosity, do you believe in god?




No, I do not believe in a god or gods but remain open to the concept as I can't prove there is no god or gods. As with the global warming topic on ASF, I await for anyone willing to provide supporting evidence for the comments, assertions, or labels often used that they seem to want others to believe.

Any chance you will provide support for the positive claims you have made?


----------



## Knobby22 (11 April 2013)

Sdajii said:


> I see. Interesting that you would compare saying the climate change bandwagon is a load of nonsense to saying there is no god. I also believe there is no god, and similarly, I can't 'prove' a negative. But the lack of proof of a negative is not reason to believe the positive.
> 
> Just as with debating religion with a religious person, I see there is no point discussing climate change with you.
> 
> Out of curiosity, do you believe in god?




Don't get all religious on us. You are the one ignoring the facts and relying on faith.


----------



## wayneL (11 April 2013)

If facts are adjused, re they still facts?

If facys rely on assumptions,  are the facts factual?


----------



## Some Dude (11 April 2013)

wayneL said:


> If facts are adjused, re they still facts?
> 
> If facys rely on assumptions,  are the facts factual?




Are you asking from an objective or experiential perspective?


----------



## Knobby22 (11 April 2013)

wayneL said:


> If facts are adjused, re they still facts?
> 
> If facys rely on assumptions,  are the facts factual?




One swallow doesn't make a summer.

One incorrect fact doesn't mean all the other facts incorrect.

The skeptic movement pours over everything being produced looking for errors and lousy science and do occasionally find it. Good on them.  But what about all the other papers that are ignored? 

Most of what I see in the press is the denier movement which is reactionary. People are paid to distort what has been said and create doubt.


----------



## wayneL (11 April 2013)

Knobby22 said:


> One swallow doesn't make a summer.




Indeed



> One incorrect fact doesn't mean all the other facts incorrect.
> 
> The skeptic movement pours over everything being produced looking for errors and lousy science and do occasionally find it. Good on them.  But what about all the other papers that are ignored?
> 
> Most of what I see in the press is the denier movement which is reactionary. People are paid to distort what has been said and create doubt.




As much as there is "some" reactionary skepticism, there is equally reactionary fear mongering in the press. 

Science functions by picking things to pieces, that is part of the scientific process.


----------



## Knobby22 (11 April 2013)

wayneL said:


> Indeed
> 
> 
> 
> ...




We are in agreement on this.


----------



## Some Dude (11 April 2013)

wayneL said:


> As much as there is "some" reactionary skepticism, there is equally reactionary fear mongering in the press.
> 
> Science functions by picking things to pieces, that is part of the scientific process.




Agreed.


----------



## Julia (11 April 2013)

Some Dude said:


> I have spent virtually all of my life being prepared and able to discuss what people prosthelytise about. I'm one of those people who invite the JW's et al. in and ask them "So what do you believe and why". It has been my experience that people in general have a large amount of confidence in the former i.e. their belief, combined with what can appear from the outside as an astonishing lack of coherency, or ability to communicate veracity, in the later i.e. the why. When someone says something akin to "because the bible tells me so", it's very obvious what the next question should be i.e. "Why should we believe the bible", but as you can imagine, most of the conversations end briefly after that as they are usually unprepared for someone who does not hold the same presuppositions that they do.



From your responses on this and other threads, SD, it seems that arguing is somewhat of a sport to you?
The JW callers certainly would make an easy target, but I guess they're asking for it if they choose to come knocking on your door.

I understand your desire to make people accountable for their beliefs, but perhaps recognise that doing so can come across sometimes as unreasonably demanding.

As we meander through life, we form beliefs and opinions about many things, largely on a gradual basis of being exposed to multiple influences and expressed views, so it can be impossible to respond to a demand to provide written proof of "on what do you base that belief".  

It's different from stating something as a fact when it's not.  Then I'm entirely with you on a request to provide evidence.

Just an incidental observation.  Most definitely not an indication of a wish to engage in any discussion about climate.


----------



## Smurf1976 (11 April 2013)

I thought this thread was about the actual weather in January 2013, with a logical extension to subsequent months.

Whilst climate change is a related subject, if we're going to have the sort of nonsense debate on that then why not continue it on the climate change thread, and leave this one for things that are actually happening with the weather recently?

Just a thought given that climate change threads all seem to end up with a pointless argument.....


----------



## qldfrog (12 April 2013)

+1
no need to have a repeat thread


----------



## Ijustnewit (12 April 2013)

I agree with the previous posters this is a good thread to share our observations and news about* current* weather events affecting members around Australia and beyond. It's also a handy tool to communicate observations and information that may be handy to members that are dealing with a current event eg : bushfire or flood.


----------



## Some Dude (12 April 2013)

Julia said:


> From your responses on this and other threads, SD, it seems that arguing is somewhat of a sport to you?
> The JW callers certainly would make an easy target, but I guess they're asking for it if they choose to come knocking on your door.




Depends on the parallels that you perceive to sport. I do have a philosophical inclination that motivates me i.e. I believe that a large part of the problem that adversely affects many _discussions_ in society at large is not what people believe but how or why they believe what they do and an inability to establish common ground on how to assess information and derive conclusions _when communicating with others_. If arguing is a sport for me, or whatever other word is appropriate, I am but one amongst a large field of players, and a relatively passive player at, whom are proactively seeking to assert something to convince others.

If you mean I am much more practiced than most people then sure, I agree. Depends on what you meant.

The JW's sadly are an easy target but I respect that they, like most people when they assert their views, are doing what they do from a sense of what they believe is good.



Julia said:


> I understand your desire to make people accountable for their beliefs, but perhaps recognise that doing so can come across sometimes as unreasonably demanding.
> 
> As we meander through life, we form beliefs and opinions about many things, largely on a gradual basis of being exposed to multiple influences and expressed views, so it can be impossible to respond to a demand to provide written proof of "on what do you base that belief".
> 
> It's different from stating something as a fact when it's not.  Then I'm entirely with you on a request to provide evidence.




I believe that I primarily engage in the later, some exceptions though  I don't see it as my responsibility to make people accountable for their belief's and I avoid engaging in the vast majority of posts or comments in my life that might benefit from someone asking for some substantiation. Climate change, the politics associated with it, and religion (notice I have not got involved in the religion threads on ASF despite involvement on other forums?) are topics that interest me from the context mentioned above i.e. not what we think but how we think, and I am selective in where and when I choose to ask why someone asserts something. I am very conscious of the "I believe" prefix which I also use a lot. The words we choose are important for the reason I will elaborate on later. If anyone ever feels that I have sought to unfairly ask for substantiation of a "belief" statement then let me know. If I have, then I overlooked that important aspect and certainly would not be the first time or last that I misread something. I am very selective about what I ask for regarding substantiation in that the person has made a statement or claim of fact, not belief. That may not stop me from engaging in conversation (as shown here) but if anyone bothers to read it they will note that what I offered was not a demand for substantiation but an expression of difference about a belief. The requests for substantiation came later i.e. "I object because you are <insert favourite label>", "Ok. where?", "Go read your posts".

Sound familiar?

In that context, I can understand that being asked to substantiate something can be perceived as demanding but I also believe that that perception is substantially amplified when people avoid their responsibility to substantiate an assertion with evasion i.e. burden of proof. If a conversation can't move past agreeing on the first contested premise, especially when the most basic of requests for a source or citation can't be fulfilled, then there is a much more pertinent observation to be made about the person making the assertion than the person asking for the substantiation.

With regard to the words that we use, sometimes the choice of a word can be important. Take this example:

Who created the universe?

The question seems simple enough but before answering it, I would seek to validate and define three of the words used. This will often lead to evasion and accusations of pendentry, troll, nit picking, demanding, education, mental faculties, etc. or some other such label without reference to the validity of the intent, nor the veracity of the point actually being made. In this example, "who" implies that there is an agent that needs to be identified, "created" implies that the universe had to be created, and "universe" needs to be defined i.e. some models postulate that what we call the universe is not a complete description of the universe such that while "create" is a valid term in this context i.e. big bang, it does not imply that there was "nothing" "before" it in the colloquial sense requiring a creation ex nihlo ergo requiring a creator ergo requiring an agent, hence god. "Nothing" is another word that requires agreement regarding what it means and how it came be used before revisiting the question. As is "before" in that asking the question "what was before the big bang" may be analogous to asking "what is north of the north pole".

Many of these details are beyond what people seek to ask or know, and I have no problem with that. But it does factor into what basilio referred to in another thread (from memory) as framing. In the setting of a public arena, or sports field, where people are making these assertions, I do not automatically accept labels such as hysteria and panic without question because that sets the context in the same manner as "Who created the universe". These questions do not mean there is no god, or a creator, or that there is no hysteria or panic, but an inability to have effective discussions about these concepts underpin what I said at the start about an inability to establish common ground on how to assess information and derive conclusions when communicating with others.



Julia said:


> Just an incidental observation.  Most definitely not an indication of a wish to engage in any discussion about climate.




Understood.


----------



## Some Dude (12 April 2013)

Smurf1976 said:


> Just a thought given that climate change threads all seem to end up with a pointless argument.....




I agree, perhaps people could avoid making the claims in other threads that generate the subsequent discussion? Perhaps people could take the issue up with the original posters directly? Perhaps a policy could be agreed upon and enforced that helps to prevent this from happening?


----------



## Smurf1976 (12 April 2013)

I have no problem with debate on the subject of climate change. It's just that I don't see this thread as the right place for it - this one's about the recent weather, not long term climate.


----------



## wayneL (12 April 2013)

I wore a jumper nearly all day today... Brizealand northside.


----------



## Garpal Gumnut (12 April 2013)

wayneL said:


> I wore a jumper nearly all day today... Brizealand northside.




21C last night in TSV. We had to turn the aircon off in the bedroom and just do with the fan, it was so bloody cold.

gg


----------



## wayneL (12 April 2013)

Garpal Gumnut said:


> 21C last night in TSV. We had to turn the aircon off in the bedroom and just do with the fan, it was so bloody cold.
> 
> gg



LOL

We could arrange for a care package to be sent up from Brissy.... blankets, rum, etc


----------



## Sdajii (13 April 2013)

Smurf1976 said:


> I have no problem with debate on the subject of climate change. It's just that I don't see this thread as the right place for it - this one's about the recent weather, not long term climate.




+1 

Most people don't even know the difference between weather and climate, or even that there is a difference.


----------



## Ijustnewit (8 May 2013)

Well more records continue to fall in the Southern States and in Central Australia , the heat is not going away and with only a few weeks to the official start of Winter it looks like there won't be much Winter this year.
It's about 23 degrees here in Hobart today and the next few days are set to get warmer , the average for May should be 14.4 degrees. Adelaide has just broken it's hottest May day on record today.
Links and articles below.

http://www.weatherzone.com.au/news/adelaide-begins-near-record-late-autumn-warm-spell/24412

http://www.weatherzone.com.au/news/alice-tipped-to-break-another-weather-record/24424

http://www.weatherzone.com.au/news/adelaide-sets-heat-record-for-may/24423

Oh well saving on the heating bills anyway


----------



## Ijustnewit (3 June 2013)

The Month of March has proven to be the Hottest on Record in Tasmania.

http://www.weatherzone.com.au/news/warm-march-weather-sets-record/24693

We have also skipped Winter and gone straight to October !!  June temperatures are around 6 degrees over by day and  5 degrees over by night so far and no change is on the horizon for the next 2 weeks. If this keeps up another record smashing month will be set again.                                                                                           If anyone wants a Winter getaway to a Tropical Island with great food , wine and culture come on down. Just bring your sunscreen ( due to the bloody big hole in the Ozone over Antarctica) and some Summer clothes.  No jackets or umbrellas required.


----------



## Knobby22 (4 June 2013)

Ijustnewit said:


> The Month of March has proven to be the Hottest on Record in Tasmania.
> 
> http://www.weatherzone.com.au/news/warm-march-weather-sets-record/24693
> 
> We have also skipped Winter and gone straight to October !!  June temperatures are around 6 degrees over by day and  5 degrees over by night so far and no change is on the horizon for the next 2 weeks. If this keeps up another record smashing month will be set again.                                                                                           If anyone wants a Winter getaway to a Tropical Island with great food , wine and culture come on down. Just bring your sunscreen ( due to the bloody big hole in the Ozone over Antarctica) and some Summer clothes.  No jackets or umbrellas required.




Fascinating.
I am sure the sea temperatures around Tassy will drop by July though and it will be freezing for a month.
Tempted to have a little holiday there though with the family


----------



## Smurf1976 (4 June 2013)

For the weather in Tasmania I blame Dark MOFO. :

Seriously, the underlying pattern hasn't really changed apart from brief spell a few weeks ago. Rainfall is way down on normal, and temperatures are higher than normal. It is perhaps not as noticeable since it's Winter so obviously it's not 42 degrees outside, but the underlying pattern hasn't gone away.

In terms of impacts, they are starting to become apparent. There's heaps of wallabies and other animals coming into suburban areas in search of water, since the bush has dried out almost completely around Hobart. Plants are suffering a bit too it seems.

In terms of human impacts, obviously it's not good news for farmers. As for water storage, further afield I heard there's a town somewhere in Queensland that has now run dry, the first one to do so in this current drought cycle in Australia. Back in Tasmania, the Hydro's rain making efforts have thus far been crimped by a lack of suitable clouds although the cloud seeding plane did go up in full operational mode on the 1st of May over the Gordon catchment.

Solar exposure in Hobart has been slightly below average for most of 2013 thus far, although May was an exception with above average figures. Going back a bit further, it was well above average toward the end of 2012.

Wind at Woolnorth (wind farm) has been above average overall, with most weeks at least average and some that are well above this.


----------



## Ijustnewit (4 June 2013)

Smurf1976 said:


> For the weather in Tasmania I blame Dark MOFO. :
> 
> Seriously, the underlying pattern hasn't really changed apart from brief spell a few weeks ago. Rainfall is way down on normal, and temperatures are higher than normal. It is perhaps not as noticeable since it's Winter so obviously it's not 42 degrees outside, but the underlying pattern hasn't gone away.
> 
> ...




Hi Smurf , Yes the MOFO Nude Swim could be impacting on the climate. I've read the Aztecs had a similar Dark Festival and looked what happened to them. 
The rainfall in Hobart is the biggest concern , so far this year we have only 128mm. This time last we had received 227mm to this date , and it was a very dry year by averages. So if the current patterns continue we are in major trouble this year come Spring and Summer. 
It has now been 23 months straight since we have had a below or on average Monthly Temperature. Very significant indeed. The bureau is not saying much on the situation mainly because it's only Tasmania, if a major city on the mainland was clocking up these sort of climate records it would be all over the news.
I guess all we can do is hope for a change soon and that the fire season is not as severe as last season.

Cheers
IJN


----------



## orr (5 June 2013)

Ijustnewit said:


> It has now been 23 months straight since we have had a below or on average Monthly Temperature. Very significant indeed. The bureau is not saying much on the situation mainly because it's only Tasmania, if a major city on the mainland was clocking up these sort of climate records it would be all over the news.
> 
> IJN




So much and in so many ways 'is' by what 'is not' said. I've surfed for over 40 years, which gives an appreciation for weather its reporting and its forecasting. A few years ago the ABC news Dropped, subtly, from the weather reporting what had been formatted feature, from well before its poignancy had any meaning to me. No longer do you hear, as the current temperature is announced how many degree's above or below average what the current temperature is. 
Consider if you will, for a moment,  23 consecutive months, and the mathematics dictates a steady increase in the years previous, of the vast majority of news broadcasts ending in the temperature being announced as 'x' amount of degrees _'above average'_. Like a 'dooms-day metronome', as the ABC worriers in the thread down the hall would no doubt label it... Best to 'hear no evil'. 
Someone made that decision in or about the late Howard era... "best to 'say no evil' "... Anybody know who?

Who might  it best serve the interests of?... best that the population not to see evil.


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## Knobby22 (18 June 2013)

Biggest floods in central Europe since the middle ages. Yes the middle ages!!!

Our media has completely ignored it. I only know because someone had to come back from the holidays early.

Summary here:

http://watchingthedeniers.wordpress...d-since-the-middle-ages-you-read-that-correct

Full information here:

http://www.wunderground.com/blog/JeffMasters/comment.html?entrynum=2432


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## sails (18 June 2013)

Knobby22 said:


> Biggest floods in central Europe since the middle ages. Yes the middle ages!!!
> 
> Our media has completely ignored it. I only know because someone had to come back from the holidays early.
> 
> ...




So what caused the same floods in the middle ages? 

 Yes, the middle ages!!! 

Surely co2 levels were lower then - smaller population and before industrialisation.


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## Knobby22 (18 June 2013)

sails said:


> So what caused the same floods in the middle ages?
> 
> Yes, the middle ages!!!
> 
> Surely co2 levels were lower then - smaller population and before industrialisation.




The point is that its happened twice over the last 3 years!! So called 1 in 500 year floods. Is this the new normal?
I don't want to get into climate change discussions - same old ground. Just pointing it out.


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## explod (18 June 2013)

With town planning, clearing of forests and modern drainage it takes much more rain for a big flood than it did way back then.  There is just no comparison to the tempests occurring now.

And in fact it is the free flowing rivers that is causing the rise in soil salinity and loss of fertility.  But that is another story;  refer to "Back from the Brink" Peter Andrews, 2006.


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## Smurf1976 (26 June 2013)

If there's one place that gets heaps of rain it's the West Coast of Tasmania. Especially in Winter, it rains most days.

Well it usually does. But for the past two weeks there has been a grand total of 0, yes zero, rain at Zeehan. Meanwhile Tullah has had under 2mm and at Reece power station there has been under 3mm. Lake Burbury has had 1.8mm, Strathgordon 2.4mm and even the Franklin River has recorded only 1.8 mm. That's the total for the whole two weeks, whereas normally you'd expect more than that in a single day.

OK, so two weeks doesn't make a drought, but this comes after the weather of the past Summer and suggests to me that we're still very much in a dry pattern. It's not quite time to panic yet, but I suspect that farmers would be starting to worry as the rains are certainly "late" this year that's for sure.

As for water storage, normally at this time of year the Mersey-Forth and Pieman hydro schemes would be running flat out 24/7 with rising water levels. They have only limited storage, and thus operate baseload (24/7) during Winter and peak load during Summer with the other schemes with much larger storages doing the opposite. They are a substantial operation, with 11 power stations between them.

Suffice to say that current storage levels are 13% for the Mersey-Forth and 16% for the Pieman and both are now being operated to meet peak loads only.

The lights won't be going out, the system is flexible enough to cope with the current circumstances and baseload production has been redirected to the other schemes with much larger storages, but it does illustrate the point about just how little rain is actually falling.

Also and somewhat at odds with the rest of it, Hobart just recorded 9 consecutive days of below the June average solar radiation, the longest such spell since 1996. In other words, it was heavily overcast. And it has also recorded one of the lowest daily maximum temperatures for many years too. 

So overall it's fair to say that at least in Tasmania, the weather is anything but "normal" recently.


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## Ijustnewit (26 June 2013)

Hobart is about to start a week and half run of temperatures averaging 16 degrees daytime and 9 over night.
The average should be around 11.7 daytime and  4.6 nighttime, so we are still getting way over temps in the middle of winter. Another thing is we are yet to wake up to snow on Mt.Wellington a very strange and worrying thing this late into winter. I have been saying we are heading for a drought down here and it's looking more likely every day now. As Smurf said it's winter and it should be raining every day down here , it's our wet season. We are in major trouble with bushfires come spring and summer if this continues.:1zhelp:


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## Knobby22 (27 June 2013)

I don't really understand that Ijustnewitt as Melbourne is going through a cold spell. Though its really frost and then sunny days.
We haven't had the bitterly cold weather yet though that we usually get around now.


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## Ijustnewit (27 June 2013)

Knobby22 said:


> I don't really understand that Ijustnewitt as Melbourne is going through a cold spell. Though its really frost and then sunny days.
> We haven't had the bitterly cold weather yet though that we usually get around now.



The difference is Melbourne has had twice it's monthly average in rain . Hobart and most of Tasmania has missed out. Large high pressure systems that are usually not present in winter are driving away cold fronts . That means wetter weather on the mainland, as we are seeing in NSW. Melbourne is about to have the same run of warmer weather as Hobart , it's just not as noticeable as Melbourne's daily averages are higher to start with.


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## Smurf1976 (27 June 2013)

Ijustnewit said:


> Hobart is about to start a week and half run of temperatures averaging 16 degrees daytime and 9 over night.



Apart from the Easterly a couple of weeks ago plus an earlier rainfall event in the West and Central Plateau areas, it's been pretty much constantly warm and dry all year.

Low as they are, the rainfall figures don't really tell the full story because most of what has fallen, has fallen in one or two rainfall events. Likewise the temperature average has been held down by a small number of very cold days and nights. But the majority of days are dry and warmer than usual - the underlying trend seems to still be there.

All that said, we're only a third of the way through the wet season so it's not time to panic yet.


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## Knobby22 (1 July 2013)

It is weird this Tassie Melbourne rain thing.
I heard on the radio this morning that in Melbourne, we just had the wettest June in 50 years and the warmest June ever.
(Cue eerie music).


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## Sdajii (1 July 2013)

What's the big scare about the hottest or wettest or driest r coldest in 50 years? You  can expect that sort of thing every 50 years or so unless the climate is perpetually going in the opposite direction. We haven't seen the warmest June ever, just since records began (recently).

Look at any dynamic system, you're going to break the 50 year record about every 50 years, the 100 year record every 100 years or so, the 1, 000 year record every 1, 000 years or so, the million year record every million years or so, etc.

What's happening at the moment is not at all unusual. When we can farm vegetables on what is currently permafrost in the northern hemisphere it will be big. When we have land covered in forest between Australia and PNG it will be big, but even that a would not be more extreme than what has naturally happened in recent fluctuation. There is nothing unusual going on at the moment. The climate change myths are among the biggest of modern civilisation.


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## Knobby22 (1 July 2013)

I read a New Scientist magazine article last night. China are building 2 special oil ships to travel the arctic. The ships are ice breakers but they can only work if the artic keeps melting, so its a big call by them.

The aim is to get oil from the mineral tar sands from Canada to China over a shorter route. It will be very profitable if it succeeds.


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## prawn_86 (1 July 2013)

Went back to rural SA over the weekend and it is the greenest it has been that I can remember in the last 20 years. The hills on the drive out almost look like NZ in parts.

One of the most consistent winters on record according to all the farmers/growers


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## Knobby22 (4 July 2013)

Anyone interested in wild weather should go to ABC iview and watch the first 15 minutes of Catalyst.
Very well done. It explains the strange weather patterns very well. It will make you very careful buying insurance shares.

It is followed by an Aussie guy who invented an underwater 3D camera that is way better and cheaper than previously used commercially. It is now being used for major events.


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## Smurf1976 (4 July 2013)

Well it seems I've discovered the solution to drought.

Just post on ASF saying that the rain isn't falling and then down it comes, up to 200mm of it at some locations on the West Coast of Tas thus far (though most are only a bit over 100mm) and it's still raining.

It's so much easier than messing about with cloud seeding (though cloud seeding over the Gordon and Great Lake catchments has added to the rain over the past few days) and it's so much more reliable than rain dances and the like.


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## Knobby22 (4 July 2013)

Wow! 200mm.


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## Ijustnewit (19 July 2013)

Today Melbourne had it's highest July day on record 23.3 . Article below

http://www.weatherzone.com.au/news/day-of-extremes-for-victoria-/25006

Tonight it's sitting at 17 degrees at* midnight* here in Hobart , bang smack in the middle of Winter. The daily max in the *daytime* should be only 11.6 . There goes Xmas in July  :22_yikes:


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## Smurf1976 (19 July 2013)

Ijustnewit said:


> Today Melbourne had it's highest July day on record 23.3 . Article below
> 
> http://www.weatherzone.com.au/news/day-of-extremes-for-victoria-/25006
> 
> Tonight it's sitting at 17 degrees at* midnight* here in Hobart , bang smack in the middle of Winter. The daily max in the *daytime* should be only 11.6 . There goes Xmas in July  :22_yikes:



I'm not sure about Victoria but the basic pattern remains intact in Tasmania. That is, dryer and warmer than usual with the vast majority of rain having fallen on a few "one off" wet days here and there. Likewise the temperature is much the same with most days relatively warm, with a few very cold ones here and there bringing down the mean a bit. 

That's a different pattern to normal, where you'd expect to have relatively consistent cold weather, and somewhat consistent rainfall especially in places such as the West Coast of Tas. 

So it seems that the overall pattern from Summer is still around, it's just that the seasonal shift is hiding it somewhat in terms of practical effects.


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## Knobby22 (19 July 2013)

Its ruined the ski season.
Even with snow machines you really can't ski except on the basic children's runs (if that). Even Mt Hotham says it has "fair" snow which means skiing on rocks from my experience. Mt Hotham is the highest and is usually a bit better than that in bad years.

Also, I have worn my overcoat only once this year. That's amazing for Melbourne.


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## basilio (19 July 2013)

I suggest its probably ruined  a few ski businesses as well. We may get a couple more dumps in the next few weeks but there is no base left and after the last week the ground is now probably above freezing. Hard to see how many people will come in July/August with this scenario.

One of the first predictions of the effects of global warming was that the snow levels would rise on mountains and that ski industries would be severely affected.


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## Gringotts Bank (19 July 2013)

To go from bitterly cold only a few weeks back in Melbourne, to a July high record indicates high (and rapidly  increasing) volatility.  Trends continue until they end, so the way I see it we will be in for freak storms, flooding, tornados, 50 degree summer days and more.

Buy the cold days and sell the hot ones.


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## Knobby22 (21 July 2013)

Decent snow at last! Wouldn't stop raining yesterday in Melbourne.
The ski fields are heavily advertising to try to save themselves from a big loss.

Maybe I will try to enjoy some while it lasts.


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## Ijustnewit (25 July 2013)

*"Sydney and Melbourne on target for warmest July on record"*

http://www.weatherzone.com.au/news/sydney-and-melbourne-on-target-for-warmest-july-on-record/25057

Actually here in Hobart in has been no better either , only one drop of snow on the mountain this whole Winter.
Normally it would be once a week at least , but it's very warm with daytime and nighttime temps running about 2 degrees over on average and up to 8 degrees over some days. This has been the case the last 18 months now , my flowers and tulips are coming out everywhere and we still have another month before spring. Very strange indeed.


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## Ijustnewit (31 July 2013)

Melbourne , Sydney and Canberra have all had their warmest July on record. 

http://bigpondnews.com/articles/Top...6_WarmestJulyonrecordforeastcities_RSS_310713

http://www.weatherzone.com.au/news/melbourne-records-its-hottest-july-on-record/25085

We missed out in Hobart by 0.1 of a degree.


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## Smurf1976 (16 August 2013)

Well now it's raining. Lots of rain actually.

Launceston City Council and the SES are busy with sand bags and the like to ward off the floods. The water is currently 1.35 meters over the top of the spillway at Trevallyn Dam (Launceston) and that's despite constant maximum discharge through the power station plus water being held back upstream. That's not a problem in itself, it just makes for a nice raging torrent through the Gorge, but the forecast is for a lot more rain and it's the North Esk River rather than Trevallyn which is the real threat.....

The entire Mersey-Forth system (south of Devonport) is also spilling water. 7 dams + power stations and the whole lot are now on spill. Peak discharge has been about 270,000 litres per _second_ at Paloona dam.

The lower 2 dams in the Pieman system are also spilling, with peak discharge hitting 600,000 litres per second. About 40% of that was going through Reece power station, which has been at constant maximum output for a couple of weeks now, and the rest over the top of Reece dam. 

The 6 dams + power stations in the Lower Derwent are are also spilling, with peak discharge about 340,000 litres per second at Meadowbank dam. Upstream as much water as possible is being held back at Lake Echo and Lake King William but there's a huge amount of water entering the system downstream of there.

Even the small Lake Margaret scheme near Queenstown has been spilling for the past 3 days. 

All that said, Hobart hasn't had that much rain and the major storages are nowhere near full (it's the smaller ones that are spilling).


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## Ijustnewit (30 August 2013)

The current written records continue to fall in 2013. Hobart has had it's warmest July day on record, it's going to be *23 degrees* on Sunday . That is *2 degrees* hotter than the January / February maximum .
So much for Spring we have gone straight to Summer. The rest of country is also feeling the heat and the records will continue to fall into next week. 
Articles for those interested below.

www.weatherzone.com.au/news/tasmania-gets-a-warm-wet-winter/25305

www.weatherzone.com.au/news/hot-start-to-spring/25304

www.weatherzone.com.au/news/melbourne-is-moving-into-spring-warmer-than-ever-before/25302


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## Smurf1976 (30 August 2013)

Inflows have started to drop off over the past few days along with the warmer weather. But the entire Mersey-Forth system is still on spill as is most of the Pieman, Trevallyn, Lower Derwent and the Tungatinah side (eastern side) of the Upper Derwent. There's a massive amount of water at the moment.

The level in Lake Pieman (for example) peaked at 2.2m over the top of Reece dam spillway and that's despite maximum discharge through the turbines. It's now down to about 0.2m over the dam's spillway (plus full gate flow through the power station). That's a massive amount of water - I would say exactly how much but the flow gauge further down the river has broken. Current flow would be somewhere around 20 million litres per minute. 

It's much the same everywhere - still huge inflows, but it's coming down. A short term flood doesn't fill major storages however - Great Lake is still only 27.3% full, Lake Gordon is 49.2% but the smaller storages are all either full or close to it.

Meanwhile at home, I'll have to get the mower out this weekend I think. Haven't used it since January but the grass is starting to get a bit long and the wallabies aren't coming around that much since there's more to eat in the bush at the moment. Here's hoping it starts after 7 months of no use.


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## Ijustnewit (24 September 2013)

The record heat in 2013 marches on .

www.weatherzone.com.au/news/record-warm-september-in-adelaide/25466

www.weatherzone.com.au/news/heat-building-to-a-near-record-climax-in-brisbane/25449

www.weatherzone.com.au/news/sydney-set-for-toasty-end-to-september/25461

www.weatherzone.com.au/news/heating-up-quickly-in-the-kimberley/25448


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