# Go To Cash or General Forum to Talk about A Guy Called Brett



## Garpal Gumnut (8 October 2018)

Time to go to Cash Comrades.

Property going to crap. 

1% + loss today on ASX.

October.

Time to go to Cash Comrades.


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## satanoperca (8 October 2018)

To late for those heavily invested in property (secured by debt) but for those in shares, they can get out quickly.

Watch the banks! They fall, all goes to ****

Must change by moniker, GFC 2 for Aus is at the door


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## sptrawler (8 October 2018)

Garpal Gumnut said:


> Time to go to Cash Comrades.
> 
> Property going to crap.
> 
> ...




What do you think GG, the recession we have to have again?

By the way, who the $#%* is Brett?


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## PZ99 (9 October 2018)

sptrawler said:


> What do you think GG, the recession we have to have again?
> 
> By the way, who the $#%* is Brett?



I think he's saying it's time for a Brett-sit on your cash


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## Garpal Gumnut (9 October 2018)

sptrawler said:


> What do you think GG, the recession we have to have again?
> 
> By the way, who the $#%* is Brett?






PZ99 said:


> I think he's saying it's time for a Brett-sit on your cash




Brett I believe is a judge in the USA who has climbed the slipper pole only to find his knees covered in unused condoms and crushed Pabst cans. The chappies in the General Forum are getting off on him for some reason. Now back to money.

It is time I believe to be 50% Shares. 50% Cash.  0% Property or REIT.

gg


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## sptrawler (9 October 2018)

Garpal Gumnut said:


> It is time I believe to be 50% Shares. 50% Cash.  0% Property or REIT.
> 
> gg




That is pretty close to where I'm at maybe 40% cash 60% shares. But I really don't want to offload the banks, maybe pick up a few more. As you say, things are certainly at a tipping point.


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## So_Cynical (9 October 2018)

On the property subject, AustSuper are changing the rules on their 'property' investment option, they are introducing the ability to freeze redemption's and investment choice switching out of property.

https://www.australiansuper.com/-/m...dviser-resources/misc/Property Option SEN.pdf

Extraordinary - the last we heard of something like this was 2009.


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## sptrawler (9 October 2018)

So_Cynical said:


> On the property subject, AustSuper are changing the rules on their 'property' investment option, they are introducing the ability to freeze redemption's and investment choice switching out of property.
> 
> https://www.australiansuper.com/-/media/australian-super/files/campaigns/adviser-resources/misc/Property Option SEN.pdf
> 
> Extraordinary - the last we heard of something like this was 2009.



That is an amazing post Cynical, well done, australian super being probably the biggest Industry Fund, has obviously been given a heads up.
The property bubble will be well and truly popped, by the sound of it.


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## Smurf1976 (9 October 2018)

My assessment of the international situation is that the US markets won’t likely top out for another year or so. 

That’s based on the overall economic situation not anything specific and doesn’t preclude a decent correction in the meantime.

Here in Australia, well the whole property / credit bubble does mean we’re not in a particularly good position.


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## Triple B (9 October 2018)

so a good time to start looking at investment properties with an eye to buy at the bottom? if you can borrow that is.


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## So_Cynical (10 October 2018)

sptrawler said:


> That is an amazing post Cynical, well done, australian super being probably the biggest Industry Fund, has obviously been given a heads up.
> The property bubble will be well and truly popped, by the sound of it.




Im stunned that no one is reporting it, AustSuper has hit the panic button, 130B FUM with i imagine 10% in direct property so 13B, by forcing members over to the balanced option they can vary the % exposure of the balanced and conservative balanced options to property, thus soak up the losses.


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## Darc Knight (12 October 2018)

You're now my Guru @Garpal Gumnut , are we waiting for a Correction or a Crash?
And how long must I wait for a Crash?
Many thanks.

DK.


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## Smurf1976 (12 October 2018)

So_Cynical said:


> AustSuper has hit the panic button, 130B FUM with i imagine 10% in direct property so 13B, by forcing members over to the balanced option they can vary the % exposure of the balanced and conservative balanced options to property, thus soak up the losses.



That is an extremely worrying development.

If I had any funds with this company then I’d be transferring them elsewhere ASAP no matter what my preferred investment option.


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## Garpal Gumnut (12 October 2018)

Darc Knight said:


> You're now my Guru @Garpal Gumnut , are we waiting for a Correction or a Crash?
> And how long must I wait for a Crash?
> Many thanks.
> 
> DK.




If it were so simple DK.

Good questions though.

Cash is always king, if in a location that won't go bust, e.g. CBA or the other Aussie banks. 

My charts tell me we may be looking at a trading range on the ASX. 

So buy in panic and sell on optimism. 

gg


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## satanoperca (12 October 2018)

What is the definition of both these terms in regards to the ASX and Australian Property Prices.

For me it is the same for both  :
Correction 10-20% from peak - uncomfortable but the bulk can get through
Crash 21-50% from peak - the majority have sh--t their pants and it stinks, not going to be cleaned up quickly
I going to live in a cave 51% > - more worried about safety than my investment portfolio


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## explod (12 October 2018)

Interesting GG that you activated this thread just days prior to increased market insecurity.

Just noticed the thread as I was absorbing the following.


*An Economic 9/11 Approaches*

*Outsider Club <newsletter@outsiderclub.com*

https://mail.google.com/mail/ca/u/0/#inbox/FMfcgxvzLDqnmwpBHhngsZKgqvMkbbSM   Sorry greggles, it worked on site for me.   However ive deleted and re pasted


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## greggles (12 October 2018)

explod said:


> Just noticed the thread as I was absorbing the following.
> 
> 
> *An Economic 9/11 Approaches*
> ...




Link doesn't work explod. Can you attach to post please mate.


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## explod (12 October 2018)

Try this:-

https://secure.outsiderclub.com/o/w...c8ae8eebe5495f9133bcbc4a7b4a1&utm_referrer=64


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## CanOz (12 October 2018)

Oh dear explod, same ole fear sells doesn't it....

I must say though it's about time gold got a bid!


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## Smurf1976 (12 October 2018)

satanoperca said:


> I going to live in a cave 51% > - more worried about safety than my investment portfolio



I wonder how common that thinking is?

Should we add caves to our portfolio?
They’ll gain value if everyone wants one.

Any cave companies on the ASX?


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## peter2 (12 October 2018)

Smurf1976 said:


> Any cave companies on the ASX?




Absolutely, the ASX is awash with companies digging holes in the ground.


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## satanoperca (12 October 2018)

Darc Knight said:


> You're now my Guru @Garpal Gumnut , are we waiting for a Correction or a Crash?
> And how long must I wait for a Crash?
> Many thanks.
> 
> DK.






Smurf1976 said:


> I wonder how common that thinking is?
> 
> Should we add caves to our portfolio?
> They’ll gain value if everyone wants one.
> ...




My statement was trying to bring some perspective in how people use words and defining those words with numbers, crash, correction, Armageddon.

As a system developer, I work with 1's and 0's, logic, not arbitrary statements.

If this current market volatility is a correction, who cares, just part of trading and investing.
If it is a crash, then how are you prepared to max opportunities while being prepare to preserve capitial.
If it is 50%> then run for the hills, however I see the possibility as 5%< probability


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## Darc Knight (12 October 2018)

You guys are smarter than me but I thought a Correction was above 10℅. I'm just worried about Index funds getting hammered due to overvaluation.


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## Darc Knight (25 October 2018)

ASX200 at 6100 when @Garpal Gumnut started this thread. Down another 2% this morning to 5709 atm. Lowest point for a year.
The Guru got it right!


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## MarketMatters (25 October 2018)

The ASX 200 was sitting at 6,374 (end of August), and now as it sits below 5,700, a decline of 10+% is a technical correction. A crash is more aligned with 20%+. Did I say October was a volatile month historically? Christmas rally starting to look very attractive once we get past the US mid terms in Nov.


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## Garpal Gumnut (25 October 2018)

Darc Knight,

Sir, 

Thanks Comrade.

As Molotov said, gimme a cocktail.

The big guys don't like losing anymore than we do so unless everything goes to crap that is a recession -20% I can see some good buys coming up in the next few days.

Don't ask me where, once this happens I stop selling and start reading my old Superman collection.

We do indeed live in interesting times.

It's only money, roof over your head, 3 meals, family and friends are the important thing.

I'm a long term investor so will have a squiz early next week. Sold a few big ones before all this thank God.

gg


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## Darc Knight (27 October 2018)

Anyone else prefer to just take their medicine now and get this Bust done so we can start again?


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## MarketMatters (27 October 2018)

No reason for a recession as US is still growing although corporate profits are wavering. If we close below monthly support levels in DOW (24000) then a CRASH is imminent but usually that means flight to quality as cash turns to bonds, though bonds are not attractive hence it would need a decent catalyst to trigger a major crash ie. major capital writedowns? don't appear to be happening though. 

NASDAQ will be key to help provide world markets with guidance. It was the first to make its high in August (Sept for S&P and Oct for Dow) hence if its stablises at these levels for next two weeks then bottom in place.


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## Darc Knight (27 October 2018)

I thought the U.S. would protect us somewhat. Trump will do everything to prevent a U.S. downturn.
Roger Montgomery was saying Australian conditions are there for things to go bad. He said 51/49 we'll have an economic downturn here.
Either way, next 12 months are gonna be bumpy.


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## willy1111 (27 October 2018)

Darc Knight said:


> I thought the U.S. would protect us somewhat. Trump will do everything to prevent a U.S. downturn.
> Roger Montgomery was saying Australian conditions are there for things to go bad. He said 51/49 we'll have an economic downturn here.
> Either way, next 12 months are gonna be bumpy.




I haven't seen anything optimistic coming out of Rogers mouth for some time. He seems to be continually looking for data to support a down turn...maybe he's trying to talk the market down so he can see some value in the market that fits with his style.


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## MarketMatters (27 October 2018)

Remember the US uses Oz as a (Chinese) exposure mechanism. Being largely a banking/resources denominated index we don't behave the same as the US which delivers a piece of international diversification. Hence now days you need to watch the global money flows. That said if the US sneezes we do appear to catch the cold! 

Overlay this with the delicate balance of global politics and you find a whole new level the market completely ignores - we are now more global than ever before.  Take the recent example of blatant misuse of $17b to keep our American allies happy as we bought up old and faulty F35 fighter jets. Trying to keep our trade partners happy is one thing but siding with one of the superpowers is another. Overall that money could have been easily been spent on safeguarding Australia's economy if we waved the Swiss Flag!


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## Darc Knight (27 November 2018)

Every day I watch the ASX and see how far ahead I still am for taking onboard GG's tip. While I didn't dial back my exposure immediately, this thread did get me thinking and ultimately convinced me to move after the Dow dived (resulting in that big ASX dive a few days after this thread started).
Thanks Gumnuts.


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## sptrawler (27 November 2018)

Darc Knight said:


> Every day I watch the ASX and see how far ahead I still am for taking onboard GG's tip. While I didn't dial back my exposure immediately, this thread did get me thinking and ultimately convinced me to move after the Dow dived (resulting in that big ASX dive a few days after this thread started).
> Thanks Gumnuts.




Just beware, our market is undervalued IMO, but it is driven by external forces.
Slowly, slowly catch the monkey. IMO
Garpel called it a treat, well done mate.


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## Darc Knight (27 November 2018)

sptrawler said:


> Just beware, our market is undervalued IMO, but it is driven by external forces.
> Slowly, slowly catch the monkey. IMO




Cheers Homer. I'm just a bit concerned by Wilson Asset Management predicting a Bear Market with occassionial rallies. Then there's the doom n gloom predictions of what will happen if Labor win.


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## sptrawler (27 November 2018)

Darc Knight said:


> Cheers Homer. I'm just a bit concerned by Wilson Asset Management predicting a Bear Market with occassionial rallies. Then there's the doom n gloom predictions of what will happen if Labor win.



That is why IMO, you should never be fully 'in' the market, or fully 'out' of the market.
It all boils back to your personal situation, if I was in my 20's I'd be saying yipee, what an opportunity.
If I was in my 60's I'd be saying WTF has happened to my life.
It is all relative.
That is why, my post script, is what it is.
Allow for the worst, hope for the best.

That is the benefit in a long term plan if you stick to it, you will never be mega rich, but you will never be sitting with your hand out.
The problem for the working 'man' if Labor bring in their changes are, the tradie buying the shares in the stay at home wife's name is shot.
The tradie's borrowing against the family home, to get an investment property, is shot to $hit.lol
Add to that, if they decide to go that route, the tax payable on any gain should dispel any fantasy about making money.
Also I guess the negative gearing and CGT rule changes, will affect share portfolio loans.
As I've been saying, the press keeps saying, it will only affect fat cats.
I think it will affect working people trying to get ahead far more.


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## willy1111 (28 November 2018)

Darc Knight said:


> Then there's the doom n gloom predictions of what will happen if Labor win.




I wouldn't be surprised if the market takes off if Labour gets elected. 

The market is forward looking so has probably already priced in all of Labours policies.

But I have no idea what will happen, just follow my plan, it has worked in the past hopefully it continues to do so into the future.


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## MarketMatters (29 November 2018)

We are sitting in the crosswinds of the Banking RC, an election which seemingly looks like a Labour win though one can never be sure until we are closer to the date (May), a trade war between Trump/Xi and a hard or soft landing Brexit outcome. As you say the market looks forward which it does yet analysts are hamstrung in estimating, with any real clarity, the forward earnings of companies affected by these major events. When they pass or are resolved the market moves on as it has its answers to assist forecasts, however, until then the uncertainty plagues it causing us all to question the direction and if traditional seasonal patterns, like Santa rallies, will unfold.


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## So_Cynical (29 November 2018)

A bit of risk on today with Afterpay and Wisetech both up significantly..


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