# 2010 Trade Journal



## Mr J (20 January 2010)

I'm starting this because I've barely made any effort so far this year, and a public journal might keep me honest. I've had about 20 opportunities, and taken just 2. As for my method, I trade support and resistance without much discretion. I should average a trade a day, and these will tend to be posted as orders, rather than trades just made. For now I will only posted forex trades, and likely only EUR/USD.


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## Trembling Hand (20 January 2010)

Looking forward to having a look.

Just one thing,


Mr J said:


> I've had about 20 opportunities, and taken just 2.



What does this mean? You haven't pulled the trigger on trades you found?


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## Mr J (20 January 2010)

It's probably going to be disappointingly simple and unsophisticated :.



> You haven't pulled the trigger on trades you found?




Pretty much. Part of it is because I currently have no routine, and the other part is hesitation since I can't really afford a rough patch (I know ). I've had both of these problems before I got into trading, and they're stupid problems to have because they're easy to fix. All I have to do is force myself to trade and get into a routine. This thread will help with that.

Each post I'll keep track of my open orders and trades, including entry prices, stops, and targets if there are any. For now all trades are on the EUR/USD. The aim is to ride trends with large positions build by pyramiding. I've said I trade support and resistance, but it's really just how I trade trends.

SL = stop loss and TP = target profit.

*Order*
Short 1.43.
SL 1.435.

No target profit. My overall bias is short, so I'm looking to hold and build a short position. I have no idea though, so I won't cling to my bias if it's not working. There probably won't be much thought in my posts, because I don't think much about my trades.


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## ThingyMajiggy (20 January 2010)

Wow, this section should be renamed "Trade Strategies/Systems and Journals"  

Looking forward to it aswell J, how long have you been using this method? Do you only trade EUR/USD? Or others as well and only posting that? Only Forex?


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## MRC & Co (20 January 2010)

I think this could really be a runner and hence, one to go for a pyramiding trade on pullbacks as you are looking for.

That being said, and as this is a review thread, I think an entry at the retest of 144 would have been much better for you, with the first pyramid at 143.

Why 144?  Because overall I am bullish on USD.  Not only is it looking way overdone, many major markets are looking toppy and oil as usual, was the first one to show this and has frontran it accordingly.  You had comments out of a manager at the Chinese Soverign Wealth fund backing this up, saying they like USD from here, but then tried to hide his comments with further comments after the markets initially reacted (don't think he expected this reaction), so he subsequently dug himself into a hole trying to say it was only 'his opinion', his first comments were obviously true (that is they think gold etc are too expensive at these levels and like a long USD) and it was not just rhetoric as could be assumed if he just left the original comments be.

You then had a push up on high volume to hit a previous swing low 6 days ago, and a consolidation for 3 days, followed by a break below that candle (daily) that pushed up on the high volume.  Hence, a short at the re-test of this level at 144 was a good entry to me, considering it was also a support zone at the swing low and the bigger picture showed weakness as explained above.

A few thoughts, hope that makes sense.


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## Mr J (20 January 2010)

I've been using it for a few months. I guess it would be called position trading, and it interested me in maybe July-August, but I ignored it in favour of shorterm trading. I was thinking shorterm was best due to quantity, but staring at a screen doesn't really agree with me, and the commissions and spread I'd have to cover don't maximise my chance of success.

I'm trading forex because I don't have much capital, and forex allows for extremely flexible trade size. The EUR/USD is just my default market. I still watch the other main pairs, oil, gold, index futures etc, and will get into them when capital allows. Still unsure how to deal with correlation. Focusing on a single market removes that complication, and watching other markets will allow me to get some bearing on it over time.



> That being said, and as this is a review thread, I think an entry at the retest of 144 would have been much better for you, with the first pyramid at 143.




I agree, and would you believe I placed an order for a 1.4410 short 24 hours before that drop? I cancelled it yesterday arvo or evening. I should've also had a short at 1.43 today, and these two trades were the final straw for me.


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## Wysiwyg (20 January 2010)

MRC & Co said:


> A few thoughts, hope that makes sense.




A sound and definitive trade overview. Well done.


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## MRC & Co (20 January 2010)

Mr J said:


> I agree, and would you believe I placed an order for a 1.4410 short 24 hours before that drop? I cancelled it yesterday arvo or evening. I should've also had a short at 1.43 today, and these two trades were the final straw for me.




Ah, no good.   

As for what to watch in managing the trade, would be high volume coming in here which could signal a false break if that volume is not accompanied by a real quick push lower......


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## Mr J (20 January 2010)

Short order at 1.4210. Might've been tempted by that first retrace to 1.4220ish if I was around. Bit of a bummer to miss shorting 1.45, 1.44 and 1.43, but can't live in the past.


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## professor_frink (21 January 2010)

Mr J said:


> Short order at 1.4210. Might've been tempted by that first retrace to 1.4220ish if I was around. Bit of a bummer to miss shorting 1.45, 1.44 and 1.43, but can't live in the past.




so did you end up finding a trade last night?


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## Mr J (21 January 2010)

No trade.


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## professor_frink (21 January 2010)

Mr J said:


> No trade.




fair enough. Good luck with the journal, hope you pick up a few runners soon

What timeframe charts do you trade BTW? I think I remember you saying you traded off hourlies or something like that a while ago but not quite sure??


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## Mr J (21 January 2010)

Thanks. Runners would be good (=$$$$$) . I trade the 4h to the weeklies, but use the 15min-1hr charts as well for a clearer picture for the shorterm.


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## professor_frink (21 January 2010)

Mr J said:


> Thanks. Runners would be good (=$$$$$) . I trade the 4h to the weeklies, but use the 15min-1hr charts as well for a clearer picture for the shorterm.



ok then thanks for that


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## Aussiest (21 January 2010)

Mr J said:


> I'm trading forex because I don't have much capital, and forex allows for extremely flexible trade size.




Could you not take out smaller contract sizes (minis) so you don't have to miss out on trades? That way, once the trade runs in your favour, you could increase position size?

Have you tried trading the Aussie SPI (I thought that's what you were doing last year)? You could perhaps build your capital that way


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## Mr J (21 January 2010)

The margin maintenance is too high. If I had a lot more capital and was taking smaller entries it would be fine, but can't really pyramid across multiple markets with my current capital and trade size. I like the eur/usd, and think it can provide enough opportunity for good results, at least for as long as I'm trading it aggressively. But then with the correlation in the markets, I'm not sure how different it would be in the big picture.


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## Trembling Hand (21 January 2010)

Mr J said:


> But then with the correlation in the markets, I'm not sure how different it would be in the big picture.




Yep. theres only 1 market at the mo.


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## Mr J (22 January 2010)

Took a small short but aggressive short at 1.4130. I'm half-expecting this one to bounce up, but we'll see. My levels have worked time and time again, so it's about time I trust them.


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## nomore4s (22 January 2010)

Mr J said:


> Took a small short but aggressive short at 1.4130. I'm half-expecting this one to bounce up, but we'll see. My levels have worked time and time again, so it's about time I trust them.




Stop?


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## Aussiest (22 January 2010)

Well, it looks like that trade is now in your favour!! Good luck


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## Mr J (22 January 2010)

Stop is 20 pips, it's usually about 50. This is more of an insurance trade in case it doesn't get back to prices I'd prefer to enter at. I don't really think much of this trade, I'm just applying my entry method mechanically. I'd prefer to take good and bad trades than be hesitant and take none at all.



> Well, it looks like that trade is now in your favour!! Good luck




Things can change fast .


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## Mr J (25 January 2010)

That one obviously didn't work. Review? I didn't like the trade, it was the third test of a level which I thought would be broken (I'm expecting a larger retracement). Still, following rules without discretion for now (at least for entries).

Trades: 1
Net profit: -20 pips
Win %: 0%

Short order at 1.4210, with stop loss at 1.4250.


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## Mr J (27 January 2010)

Picked up 40 pips last night buying 1.4050 and selling at 1.4090. Also moved the short order from 1.4210 to 1.4130. I won't be looking to hold it, I'll see how it plays. Rules would suggest buying 1.4050 again, but I'm leaving it for now.


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## Mr J (28 January 2010)

Well that was unexpected. Missed two potential trades (just woke up). First a short at 1.4040 at 11am. Couldn't have gotten this one without being awake though, since price was at 1.4040 when I went to sleep so I couldn't place an order for it. Second was a buy at 1.3950 at about noon, which I should have ordered. Not sure why I didn't even think about it.

Placing a short order at 1.4030, stop 1.4080.


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## Mr J (29 January 2010)

I didn't actually update my short order to 1.4030, but was on the spot earlier this evening and grabbed 1.4042 instead. Just sold about half at 1.3960. The stop for the rest is at 1.40, but things might change before I go to sleep.


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## MRC & Co (29 January 2010)

Think you need to post the charts J.


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## Mr J (30 January 2010)

Pictures are prettier than words, and it will allow me to comment and get feedback on price action.


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## Trembling Hand (30 January 2010)

Mr J said:


> I'm starting this because I've barely made any effort so far this year, and a public journal might keep me honest. I've had about 20 opportunities, and taken just 2.






Mr J said:


> Part of it is because I currently have no routine, and the other part is hesitation since I can't really afford a rough patch (I know ). I've had both of these problems before I got into trading, and they're stupid problems to have because they're easy to fix. All I have to do is force myself to trade and get into a routine.




Hmmmmmmm.......

whats that 6 trades in 9 days? whats your expectancy expressed in R's per trade? let me play around here,

Lets say 50/50 win rate 1 to 2 risk:reward.

Thats a 1 R expectancy per trader. 1 trade every 1.5 days = 166 trades = 166 R per year. less account drag (data, living etc) how much is your AAD? (annual account drag ) it would need to be exceptionally low or your account exceptionally high OR your R value very high as an account % to live off such a system.


Where is the 







> hesitation since I can't really afford a rough patch



 coming from, A rough patch OR underlying depression from the realisation that reality aint matchin expectation?

Just askin'


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## Mr J (31 January 2010)

I can't estimate expectancy at this point. I expect my winrate to be at least 60%. If I didn't hold during trends, I'd aim for 1:1 and a trade a day. Since I do aim to hold during trends, R:R should be pushed quite a bit higher (e.g. my open position is currently about 4:1), but pyramiding and riding trends will also lower my number of trades. I still expect number of trades to be at least one per day because I'm currently restricting myself.



> Thats a 1 R expectancy per trader. 1 trade every 1.5 days = 166 trades = 166 R per year.




Those figures are more than acceptable :.



> it would need to be exceptionally low or your account exceptionally high OR your R value very high as an account % to live off such a system.




I don't need to live off the bankroll for a while. At some point I will need to, which is why I need half-decent results.


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## Trembling Hand (31 January 2010)

Mr J said:


> I can't estimate expectancy at this point. I expect my winrate to be at least 60%. If I.................




One day I will come back to this point.


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## Mr J (31 January 2010)

Winrate or knowing whether I'm profitable? I know I'm profitable, I just don't know to what extent and don't have evidence to back it up :.


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## Trembling Hand (31 January 2010)

Mr J said:


> Winrate or knowing whether I'm profitable? I know I'm profitable, I just don't know to what extent and don't have evidence to back it up :.




From somethings you have said like:

Not wanting to spend hours at the screens,

missing trades,

Needing to make yourself trade,

Your system is simple/unsophisticated etc

I don't see why you don't spend two days on NT or Ami automating it and be done with the torment.


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## Mr J (31 January 2010)

> I don't see why you don't spend two days on NT or Ami automating it and be done with the torment.




It's not that much more trouble to do it manually, and I prefer doing it. I'm not missing trades anymore anyway.


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## Mr J (2 February 2010)

Short at 1.3924, stop 1.3974.


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## ThingyMajiggy (2 February 2010)

Charts.


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## Timmy (2 February 2010)

ThingyMajiggy said:


> Charts.




This any good Sam?  4 Hr Bar (Mr J's preferred I think).  As of now.

Chart from NetDania http://www.dailyfx.com/charts/netdaniachart/


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## MRC & Co (2 February 2010)

J, is your stop always a standard 50 pips?


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## ThingyMajiggy (2 February 2010)

Timmy said:


> This any good Sam?  4 Hr Bar (Mr J's preferred I think).  As of now.
> 
> Chart from NetDania http://www.dailyfx.com/charts/netdaniachart/





Yep thats the stuff, bit easier to see where he is placing his trades etc. 

Thanks for that Timmy


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## MRC & Co (2 February 2010)

ThingyMajiggy said:


> Yep thats the stuff, bit easier to see where he is placing his trades etc.
> 
> Thanks for that Timmy




Yes, much much easier.  As for a trend, support trade, wouldn't take this one personally.    See how it plays out.


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## skc (2 February 2010)

Wouldn't take that myself either...

What's the profit target, J? OR just let it run?



Timmy said:


> This any good Sam?  4 Hr Bar (Mr J's preferred I think).  As of now.
> 
> Chart from NetDania http://www.dailyfx.com/charts/netdaniachart/




Wow Timmy. That's fantastic service. Could you also do my charts from now on?!

And a flat white with one sugar please


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## Timmy (2 February 2010)

skc said:


> And a flat white with one sugar please




Here ya go skc:

:cup: 

& Donuts on the way later!


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## skc (2 February 2010)

Timmy said:


> Here ya go skc:
> 
> :cup:
> 
> & Donuts on the way later!




ROFLMAO... Thanks mate.

Alright I have cluttered this thread enough.


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## Mr J (2 February 2010)

That free chart is nice and clean, so I'll use that to provide a picture. I aim to trade the 4h, but many of the trades are more 1h trades so I've posted a 1h chart as well. I entered about a dozen bars ago.



MRC & Co said:


> J, is your stop always a standard 50 pips?




Usually. It will probably range from 20 to 100 (100 if I wanted to immediately create a longterm trade, rather than trying to build shorterm trades into longterm ones). Actual risk usually isn't that large as I like to move stops up quickly early on, and if I don't like what's happening I will often close it before the stop. 



> As for a trend, support trade, wouldn't take this one personally




It isn't really. No trade I make starts off as anything other than an intraday trade - usually 15m - and then if it runs I'll look at it on slower timeframes as well. It's not an ideal entry for me, but I think it's worth a shot. Seems that it's more costly for me to miss an entry than to enter too early.




			
				skc said:
			
		

> What's the profit target, J? OR just let it run?




No profit target, and my exists are discretionary. Ultimate aim in a trend is always to let it run (at least when in the direction of the trend). I also still have half of my previous trade open (the short from 1.40425).


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## MRC & Co (2 February 2010)

Mr J said:


> It isn't really. No trade I make starts off as anything other than an intraday trade - usually 15m - and then if it runs I'll look at it on slower timeframes as well. It's not an ideal entry for me, but I think it's worth a shot. Seems that it's more costly for me to miss an entry than to enter too early.
> 
> Ultimate aim in a trend is always to let it run (at least when in the direction of the trend). I also still have half of my previous trade open (the short from 1.40425).




Thx, a lot more info in your last post and the chart helps.

But I don't get this part, how do you take 15 minute trades off 1 hours charts?  And this one for example, didn't run, but you are still looking at it on slower timeframes?

Also, you are short here, but you also have the original short running?  So is this trade independent or is it a pyramid to the other?  I.e. are the stops for both in the same place, or entirely different?

Cheers


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## Mr J (2 February 2010)

The stops for both are roughly in the same place, but they're independent.



> how do you take 15 minute trades off 1 hours charts?




I don't, I watch a handful of timeframes. Trying to describe how I treat timeframe might get a little messy, as I know many people see it differently to me. A lot of people seem to put a lot of emphasis in a bunch of candles - I don't, I prefer to look at it on a faster chart. Same story, different picture. It would be clearer to just post charts.


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## nunthewiser (2 February 2010)

Often has 3 chart windows open on intraday trading .......... usually 1h,5min,1min.

Just have all views in front of me for intraday ticks.


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## Aussiest (2 February 2010)

Mr J said:


> Short at 1.3924, stop 1.3974.




Mr J,

I am interested (not sure if this one is position trade), when trading "position" (trend riding), do you take fundamentals into account? Or are you purely trading from charts, eg, technicals as opposed to fundies?


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## Mr J (2 February 2010)

Only subconsciously. That's something I'm going to look at this year. I don't know how much being informed of the fundamentals will help, but it couldn't hurt to have a more well-rounded approach. Part of me thinks that anything I need to know is reflected in price movement, but since I'm ignorant of fundamentals I wouldn't know!


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## Trembling Hand (2 February 2010)

Mr J said:


> Only subconsciously. That's something I'm going to look at this year. I don't know how much being informed of the fundamentals will help, but it couldn't hurt to have a more well-rounded approach. Part of me thinks that anything I need to know is reflected in price movement, but since I'm ignorant of fundamentals I wouldn't know!




Then of course just because you make a judgment on fundamentals doesn't make it any more likely to be true than one based on TA.

So the question should be will extra add or take or just be more for nothin'


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## Mr J (2 February 2010)

Trembling Hand said:


> So the question should be will extra add or take or just be more for nothin'




No idea, which is why I think it's worth considering.

There was a spike in the last few candles. I was in two minds about it, but dumped it for about break even (entry was 1.3924 short).


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## Aussiest (2 February 2010)

Mr J said:


> Only subconsciously. That's something I'm going to look at this year. I don't know how much being informed of the fundamentals will help, but it couldn't hurt to have a more well-rounded approach. Part of me thinks that anything I need to know is reflected in price movement, but since I'm ignorant of fundamentals I wouldn't know!




But, wouldn't news items such as interest rates etc. impact on currencies? I've seen AUD go up (although i don't watch it that closely) when rate rises are announced.

Oil spills and shortages seem to impact on the POO, as it's about supply and demand.

For longer term trading, i'd definately use a combination of fundies and technicals. I'm not a currency trader though, but it sounds interesting. Also like the relationship between Gold and the USD.. But, you'd have to keep eye on USD and what drives it (interest rates, bonds ?? - think i posted something about this ages ago, but haven't had time to research) as Gold is reactionary to it.

Lucky you dumped the position. Have you thought about researching several markets or pairs so that your opportunities are expanded?


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## Mr J (2 February 2010)

> But, wouldn't news items such as interest rates etc. impact on currencies?




I don't pay much attention to it to be honest. Of course there's an impact, but I think what I need to know is shown in price movement. I'm just keeping an open mind towards it, and see if anything clicks.



> Lucky you dumped the position.




We'll see. There's a good chance that I just got pushed off a decent entry.


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## Aussiest (2 February 2010)

Mr J;529609what I need to know is shown in price movement. [/QUOTE said:
			
		

> Yeah, but these kind of things create price movement.


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## Mr J (3 February 2010)

Just got filled for a short at 1.4035 when price wasn't within 10 pips of it .


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## Trembling Hand (3 February 2010)

Mr J said:


> Just got filled for a short at 1.4035 when price wasn't within 10 pips of it .




Bloody manipulators! 

You don't think this run is getting a bit old?


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## white_goodman (3 February 2010)

Trembling Hand said:


> Bloody manipulators!
> 
> You don't think this run is getting a bit old?




yeh looks it to me....

depends on TF I guess


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## Mr J (3 February 2010)

> You don't think this run is getting a bit old?




Not playing the run, just what's in front of me. I'm not looking to let this trade ride, though if it wants to that's fine by me.


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## ThingyMajiggy (3 February 2010)

Mr J said:


> Not playing the run, just what's in front of me. I'm not looking to let this trade ride, though if it wants to that's fine by me.




Not looking to let this trade ride? Whats your stop at? What are your hopes for this trade?


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## Mr J (3 February 2010)

My main strategy aim is to play bounces. If I think price will keep moving in one direction, I'll develop a bias, which means that I'll often look to hold onto trades in that direction, and be more cautious about trading in the opposite direction. This was primarily a bounce trade, because I'm not confident about the longterm viability of the trade. I just closed it out (1.40) because I think we're more likely to see price rise, there's news coming up, and the early entry changed things (I just hope this trade is legit).



> yeh looks it to me....
> 
> depends on TF I guess




No, it's completely relevant. We've dropped 50% of the March rally in a couple of months.


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## nomore4s (3 February 2010)

Mr J said:


> (I just hope this trade is legit).




What does this mean?


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## nomore4s (3 February 2010)

Mr J said:


> This was primarily a bounce trade, because I'm not confident about the longterm viability of the trade. I just closed it out (1.40) because I think we're more likely to see price rise, there's news coming up, and the early entry changed things (I just hope this trade is legit).




Also, I know you've stated your reasons for closing the trade but why not just trail a stop while the trade is moving in the right direction?


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## Mr J (4 February 2010)

Trade was filled at a price that wasn't available.



> why not just trail a stop




I don't like trailing stops.


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## nomore4s (4 February 2010)

Mr J said:


> I don't like trailing stops.




Thanks.

Can I ask why you don't like them?
Seems strange that you are trying to capture trends but don't like using trailing stops. It would seem to me that you would have to trail a stop somewhere as a trend develops and you start riding it.

When I was talking about trailing stops I didn't mean automatic ones, more along the lines of moving the stop to b/e or something like that and let it run.
(Just to be clear)


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## Mr J (4 February 2010)

Not to be results-oriented, but that wasn't my best exit. I was uncomfortable with the early/weird fill, and looked for excuses to exit. The reasons I gave weren't legitimate (for me), and actually contradict my current trading philosophy. Still, without that strange fill I wouldn't have had any trade at all.



> Can I ask why you don't like them?




Sorry, I thought you were talking about automatic ones. I do it manually all the time.


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## Mr J (5 February 2010)

Scratch that last post. After some more reflection, the real issue is that I'm playing not to lose (low capital), and therefore willing to close and take profit when I'd otherwise hold it. Don't know why it took until now to realise this since I've been aware of it since I started trading. The idea of trading mechanically pushed it out of my mind, and when I started using more discretion it crept back in, resulting in the last trade i posted.


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## Trembling Hand (24 February 2010)

No much going on in here?


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## Mr J (24 February 2010)

Wasn't helping me. I can't afford to lose, so I was hesitating and became impressionable. Still trading, but keeping the blinders on for the moment. I'll probably start trading relatively aggressively soon, so I'll start posting then even if it's just to show off the sick equity curve .


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## Trembling Hand (27 March 2010)




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## >Apocalypto< (27 March 2010)

Trembling Hand said:


>





Great touch!


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