# Option 1



## Qlds007 (20 January 2005)

Just wondered if anyone had any experience good or bad with Option 1 a Guy Bower advisory system. http://www.option1.com.au/default.asp


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## wayneL (21 January 2005)

Hi 007,

Looking at the website: 

On the one hand, Guy Bower is well respected and has a lot of credibility around the traps.

This following passage sounded really good as to their approach to option trading:

<<<<<At Option1, we do not have what you might call “smash and grab” trades. These trades are where you can make a lot or lose a lot in a very short time. We do not aim to hit a home run with every trade. We also do not quote cumulative or annualized returns.
Occasionally you hear of some traders making 20%, 50%, 100% etc in the markets. What you don’t hear is how much risk you have to constantly take to make that sort of money and you certainly don’t hear about the big losses.
Option1 trades are a little different. Our recommendations do not promise overnight riches but a more risk friendly approach to trading options.>>>>>

But a couple of little red flags for me:

1/ The calculation of their 1st years results as + 35% profit is very nebulous. It simply adds up all the individual trades to get this figure. If the profit results are % of total capital, then that is reasonably impressive and also reflects some sort of money management. If not, then it's a pretty dishonest presentation.

But it does not say how this is calculated so it leaves me guessing.

2/ Their is this example of one of their trades:

<<<<Silver Short Calls
Here is a simple trade that lasted only 8 days. It involved selling call options in Silver when option prices appeared overvalued.
On the 13th Feb, Silver futures were trading near 660. We recommended selling the 750 calls with 11 days to expiration for about $100us per contract. Only a very small amount was traded. In the following trading session, the 17th Feb, we recommended adding to that position by selling the 725 calls for about $115per contract.
Even with the market on a slight increase, the call premium fell to nothing almost instantly. This was thanks to very sharp decay of the time premium of the option and the simple fact we spotted these options at these inflated price.
On average the trades made about 2.14%. From the trader’s points of view, it was easy. Just place the orders, and then do nothing. The options expired worthless and the profit was made within days. >>>>>

Short silver calls is something I just would not trade without spreading it off. It is one of those markets that is capable of spiking up big time and if unfortunate enough to be caught up in one of these spikes and short calls, it could do some serious damage to your account. That is a low probability, but, the risk is real and sooner or later.......a lot of traders have blown up this way.

From memory you used to be a futures broker didn't you? What do you think?

Cheers
Wayne


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## wayneL (21 January 2005)

Reading the website further:

Concern 1/ There is some talk about money management so perhaps my 1st concern is alleviated. It would appear the profit figures are as % of capital. It is still nebulous though and if I were him I would make that clearer.

Concern 2/ It looks as though this is not a typical trade and it looks as though they do spread off risk. 

If I were looking for help with options I could think of worse ways to spend $3k. 

Cheers


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## JetDollars (5 February 2005)

I just returned from the ASX Market research and spoke to one of the guy who using OPTIONVUE. The guy said the software is pretty good for options, but I still think it is expensive ie. $2000-$3000 I believe.


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## SuperTed (8 February 2005)

I think Optionvue is overkill for our market.

With the limited number of options worth trading (liquidity) basic pricing software that inlcudes volatility is all that is needed.

If you dont trade liquid (close to money, larger caps) you will get shafted by the market maker working both ends of the spread.

So even if you see a good deal to enter, the goal posts will move quickly.


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## wayneL (24 May 2006)

hehe



			
				wayneL said:
			
		

> Short silver calls is something I just would not trade without spreading it off. It is one of those markets that is capable of spiking up big time and if unfortunate enough to be caught up in one of these spikes and short calls, it could do some serious damage to your account. That is a low probability, but, the risk is real and sooner or later.......a lot of traders have blown up this way.


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## Lucky (25 May 2006)

Wayne,

nice call.  Hopefully saved a few inquiring individuals some cash.  Still seem to be catching those losing trades, you'd think after the silver and gold losers they were in they may just take a breather and sit out.  Be interesting to see what those trades in gold and silver were.


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