# MYR - Myer Holdings



## Sean K (28 September 2009)

Just what is this company selling?

I'll buy it if it's from the front of the prospectus.

They're obviously trying to target the informed investor....


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## Nyden (28 September 2009)

*Re: MYF - Myer Holdings*

I'll take a billion dollars worth please.

Joking, of course.

I'm still unsure about this one. Myer are kind of a middle-ground store. They're not quite high-end, but they're probably a little better than K-Mart. Good future in targeting middle-class folk in boom times, perhaps?


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## investorpaul (28 September 2009)

*Re: MYF - Myer Holdings*

I can see this float being over subscribed, the share price opening sharply higher and then plummeting after 2 or so weeks. I.E. Retail holders all jump in thinking its the float of the century and all the smart money moved out quick smart making a nice profit.

My opinion only, DYOR


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## explod (28 September 2009)

*Re: MYF - Myer Holdings*



investorpaul said:


> I can see this float being over subscribed, the share price opening sharply higher and then plummeting after 2 or so weeks. I.E. Retail holders all jump in thinking its the float of the century and all the smart money moved out quick smart making a nice profit.
> 
> My opinion only, DYOR




Smart money maybe behind the float in the first place I think.   Lambs to the slaughter again IMHO


Just my old muses


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## TheAbyss (28 September 2009)

*Re: MYF - Myer Holdings*



investorpaul said:


> I can see this float being over subscribed, the share price opening sharply higher and then plummeting after 2 or so weeks. I.E. Retail holders all jump in thinking its the float of the century and all the smart money moved out quick smart making a nice profit.
> 
> My opinion only, DYOR




Precisely.

Equity money has bought at a price, borrowed more money to do it. Yes they have increased turn over from the lows but not certain they had anything to do with it as the Govt Stimulus packages were a contributor.

They have now packaged up a circa $1.2b business, a mountain of debt and a tidy profit to arrive at a value per share and selling it to mums and dads. 

Institutions will be out quick smart and this will be a potential Babcock/ MQ shrink wrapped debt vehicle for the rest. My money is on a 1-2 week window to sell out or you will be stuck with them and talking up the dividend prospects.


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## oldblue (28 September 2009)

*Re: MYF - Myer Holdings*

I'll be having a hard look at the prospectus .... if I can get past the cover!

But seriously, I wouldn't underestimate the power of the Myer name in the Australian psyche nor in the Aussie wallet so I'll be taking a good look at the numbers before dismissing it as a hard sell. If I get offered any, that is


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## swm79 (28 September 2009)

*Re: MYF - Myer Holdings*



TheAbyss said:


> Precisely.
> 
> Equity money has bought at a price, borrowed more money to do it. Yes they have increased turn over from the lows but not certain they had anything to do with it as the Govt Stimulus packages were a contributor.
> 
> ...




agreed - in and out with a quick turn around on this one would be the only way to go.

short term DEAD money IMO... esp with the lack of stimulus monies.

dont think i'll touch this one - better opps elsewhere IMO

but, DYOR


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## Caliente (28 September 2009)

*Re: MYF - Myer Holdings*

yeah, just got this in the inbox as well. 

P/E ratio for the offer will be about 15 which I think is quite reasonable given retail rival DJS is trading on a relatively expensive 20.

70-80%payout fully franked also seems pretty reasonable.

Not sure, but am tempted to grab a few units... any other takers???


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## mythos (28 September 2009)

*Re: MYF - Myer Holdings*

Michael Pascoe, has slamed the Myer float, as the private equiteers ripping off the retail investors.


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## mythos (28 September 2009)

*Re: MYF - Myer Holdings*

Article from Michael Pascoe. http://www.brisbanetimes.com.au/business/psst-wanna-buy-an-expensive-used-store-20090928-g8jk.html


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## Caliente (28 September 2009)

*Re: MYF - Myer Holdings*

thanks for the article. It's pretty scathing - but nevertheless I thought given the hype that the Myer IPO is going to be a success and there should be some profit for the taking when it opens.


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## mythos (28 September 2009)

*Re: MYF - Myer Holdings*



Caliente said:


> thanks for the article. It's pretty scathing - but nevertheless I thought given the hype that the Myer IPO is going to be a success and there should be some profit for the taking when it opens.




I agree, should be able to make a quick profit. Everyone I have run into the last couple of weeks is talking about trying to buy Myer shares for the long term. Going to be big interest from the punters to buy em and stick em in the drawer.


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## Silhouette (28 September 2009)

*Re: MYF - Myer Holdings*



mythos said:


> Article from Michael Pascoe.




...pretty blunt and aggressive...was he refused a refund for a set of Maxwell & Williams plates or something?


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## TheAbyss (29 September 2009)

*Re: MYF - Myer Holdings*

Bottom line is private equity paid $1.2b, borrowed $390 m added in a tidy profit and are trying to flog it to Joe public for around $2.4b. That is a profit of approx $800m that they want us to fund on the strength of some rubbery eps estimates that may or may not eventuate.

Other side of the coin is emotion gets involved when it is an iconic name up for sale so retail investors will like it.

"Get in get out" is the credo on this one.


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## Awesomandy (29 September 2009)

*Re: MYF - Myer Holdings*

While I'm not very familiar with this business, from memory, it was rather poorly managed back in the Coles Myer days in terms of generating financial performances.


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## Kremmen (27 October 2009)

The retail issue price will be determined on Fri 30 Oct after the institutional offer closes. 

Trading on the ASX will commence on Mon 2 Nov. Shares will trade on a conditional and deferred settlement basis, with normal settlement trading to commence Wed 11 Nov.


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## OZInvestor (27 October 2009)

*Re: MYF - Myer Holdings*

Guys ,

What do u people say abt MYF ??? 

Is it just a hype or will it go really high .. ??? 

I have planned to go for it .. what do u people reckon ??


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## nomore4s (27 October 2009)

*Re: MYF - Myer Holdings*



rodneymonteiro said:


> Guys ,
> 
> What do u people say abt MYF ???
> 
> ...




Rod,

How about adding a bit more depth to this post by stating what you think will happen and why, maybe then you will start some discussion on it that will give you some other peoples views on it.


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## philly (27 October 2009)

*Re: MYF - Myer Holdings*

I did a little bit of research on Myer.
In Australia there are only 2 non discount department stores and they are David Jones Stores [ASX Code DJS] and MYER Stores. It follows that any analysis of MYER must involve a comparison with DJS and also to a lesser degree the discount department stores [Target, K Mart and Big W]. 

MARKET SHARE
In the 2009 FY the department store market was worth $18.7 billion. The key players % share was as follows:
DJS 11.7, MYER 19.2, TARGET 21.2, K MART 22.4 & BIG W 23.9
On market share MYER is clearly ahead of DJS by 7.5% [or about $1.4 billion pa]. 

FUTURE GROWTH: NEW STORES AND REBUILDS
DJS currently has 36 stores across Australia.
It is building 4 new stores – Sunshine Coast, Gold Coast, Sydney and Perth.
It is in negotiations to build a further 4 new stores
It is rebuilding 2 stores in Melbourne and Perth.
It has completed or is in the process of refurbishing 7 stores
It plans to refurbish between 3-5 more stores

MYER currently has 65 stores across Australia.
It is planning to build 15 new stores in the next 5 years.
It is rebuilding its flagship store in Melbourne.

DIVIDENDS
DJS is currently paying investors a dividend of 28 cents per share. This represents a yield of about 4.83% pa.

MYER predicts that it will pay a dividend of between 20 - 21 cents per share. This represents a yield of between 4.3% - 5.3% pa.

This is just my and as always DYOR


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## Kremmen (29 October 2009)

With the market sliding this week, it'll be interesting to see what the issue price will be. If the institutions get cold feet, it might make MYR's retail offer come in closer to the better value end of the range. For those subscribed to the float, a market slide this week and a bounce back next week would be ideal.


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## skyQuake (29 October 2009)

$4~$4.20 range according to the vines
Lower end of the range consistent with my thoughts that Instos would stay out of the bookbuild, and buy on market (thus underpaying)


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## Putty7 (29 October 2009)

Hi Skyquake, I bought into 50k worth through an offer from etrade, hoping now I won't get all of it but it did close a lot earlier than the time allocated which is a good sign as there was interest there.

My instincts at the time was the Brand name would see it through with a lot of mum and dad investors jumping out of Telstra and maybe looking to get back into something familiar, maybe interest from Superfunds etc. diversifying out from David Jones.

I am concerned about the amount of shares the vendors have and would not be surprised to see them squash any stag as I think they have indicated their willingness to sell, any thoughts on this would be appreciated as I am still a novice and this is the first IPO I have looked at (and maybe the last).


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## trading_rookie (29 October 2009)

> With the market sliding this week, it'll be interesting to see what the issue price will be. If the institutions get cold feet, it might make MYR's retail offer come in closer to the better value end of the range.




Considering the underwriters of this prospectus were pushing Myer management to get the prospectus out sooner rather than later to avoid what we're seeing now, I wonder if Brookes and co. will now get their wanted price of high 4's/low 5's. Might be a case of should have listened to your underwriters rather than being smug and thinking the recovery will still be up by Christmas.

I agree with most of the sentiment on this thread - ride the initial hype and then get out...but then I couldn't be arsed filling in the paper work and chucked the prospectus (had them mail me a hard copy) in the drawer as a souvenir ;-)

An interesting fact - according to an AFR article (more than a week old), it reported that the Myer chairman plans to hold 100% of his stock options, the CEO 90%, while the rest of Myer management is holding 83%, so I guess the Myer executive team is confident of a good listing. Time will tell.


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## oldblue (29 October 2009)

According to The Business Spectator it looks like the price will be $4-10.

Vendors apparently havn't yet decided how many to sell!.

http://www.businessspectator.com.au...-report-pd20091029-XA47A?OpenDocument&src=tnb


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## skyQuake (29 October 2009)

Putty7 said:


> Hi Skyquake, I bought into 50k worth through an offer from etrade, hoping now I won't get all of it but it did close a lot earlier than the time allocated which is a good sign as there was interest there.
> 
> My instincts at the time was the Brand name would see it through with a lot of mum and dad investors jumping out of Telstra and maybe looking to get back into something familiar, maybe interest from Superfunds etc. diversifying out from David Jones.
> 
> I am concerned about the amount of shares the vendors have and would not be surprised to see them squash any stag as I think they have indicated their willingness to sell, any thoughts on this would be appreciated as I am still a novice and this is the first IPO I have looked at (and maybe the last).




Doubt that you'll get your full $50k worth, if every silver member applies, their min allocation will see the retail offer oversubscribed. 

Good news for you is that its at the lower end of the spectrum. Better news for you is today's selloff will see instos a bit shy and maybe pulling some bids. Its already indicative at $4~4.20 which is imo, a fair price. You should be able to stag a bit at $4.50ish?

Anyways, the instos aren't stupid. If they apply for lots through the IPO, they'll drive up the price from $3.90 to $4.90.
If the buy on market they will probably move the price up 10c at worst. (and able to stay out and watch it fall before buying if its priced at the high end of the range).

Seems decent to me at these price levels (for now at least)

Good luck

Disclosure: Forgot to apply for some lol


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## Putty7 (29 October 2009)

Thanks for the feedback, have been a bit concerned as the capital could have been allocated to better opportunities and the feedback through the forum has been less than appealing with regards to Myer, the trouble with being a very little fish in a very large sea full of predators is reading the play well enough to know where to swim without getting eaten up  . The SP at the lower end is a good sign no doubt, was probably my major concern, as long as there is some room to move it leaves an exit open if needed.


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## skyQuake (2 November 2009)

Lets see if theres fund interest today, trading at $3.90 at present in a thin range. 
I would assume heavy resistance at $4.10 though


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## Wysiwyg (2 November 2009)

Just watching large trades being executed and wondering is this what investors do? I mean those selling must be at a loss.


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## Nyden (2 November 2009)

Some stag trade  Glad my prospectus went into the bin. Yes, it does seem quite odd Wysiwyg, but I guess many retail investors were only looking for the quick gains ... little did they know that they weren't all too clever after all, as everyone else was as well 

16 Million units for sale, 3 million units looking to be bought. Doesn't take a genius to know that the punters just aren't interested. Although, it may be a case of lack of awareness. How many folk are even aware that it's listed yet?


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## Judd (2 November 2009)

Yep, 64M units volume so far,  Sells of 400k here, 250k there buys of 150k that way.  Yep been a real success, down 6% in a market that is down 1.9%

All that is needed is for the head floor walker to come out and say what a grand day it has been [for him and his colleagues but not for the punter.]

Stayed well away from this as it was always about private equity transferring your money into their wallet.


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## ROE (2 November 2009)

I buy when it get to $2 ..... that when it trades a discount to its intrinsic value.

Lucky it didnt get hammer harder ....


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## fureien (2 November 2009)

yeh i might pick some up around the $2 mark, no matter how bad it is, at that range its trading at a discount.

And christmas is coming up, we saw some nice rises in the retail sector during the stimulus period around easter. Christmas is supposed to be like several times bigger in turnover. Christmas sales start this month too and momentum picks up as early as mid november.

So we should see most people exit by end of november and price recover around december at least. The thing is though, from what ive seen turnover is large during christmas, but profits are small as. Id expect this year to be worse with the gfc where they'll be marking down alot of stuff even more and have more stock to clear during boxing day.

Btw ive worked for myer the past 2 years thats what im basing this on.


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## kenny (2 November 2009)

I vaguely recall someone at the Eureka report thought $2.90 was reasonable value so $2.00 would be a treat.

I wonder how many wannabe stags still to bail?

Cheers,

Kenny


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## el_caro (2 November 2009)

kenny said:


> I vaguely recall someone at the Eureka report thought $2.90 was reasonable value so $2.00 would be a treat.
> 
> I wonder how many wannabe stags still to bail?
> 
> ...




$2.00 is too pessimistic. I think the $2.90 mark would be a good point to buy in unless the US goes into double dip when the US commercial property market collapses in the year ahead.


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## Agentm (2 November 2009)

el_caro said:


> $2.00 is too pessimistic. I think the $2.90 mark would be a good point to buy in unless the US goes into double dip when the US commercial property market collapses in the year ahead.




the market values them at 2.2 billion

i heard they will raise capital and propose a takeover of coles in the next few days

may be an old rumor?


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## kenny (2 November 2009)

If they announce a capital raising for any reason in the first week of listing, then the $2 mark will be achievable I reckon 

Of course then we would need to consider whether $2 is appropriate given the circumstances....

Cheers

Kenny


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## Drivermann (25 January 2010)

*Myer are they worth holding*

Having bought Myer share through the IPO and watched they go backwards almost from day 1. I am wondering does anyone think they are worth hanging on to or is time to cut my losses and bail out. This is the first time I've bought shares through an IPO and it could be a long time before I do so again


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## Sean K (25 January 2010)

*Re: Myer are they worth holding*



Drivermann said:


> Having bought Myer share through the IPO and watched they go backwards almost from day 1. I am wondering does anyone think they are worth hanging on to or is time to cut my losses and bail out. This is the first time I've bought shares through an IPO and it could be a long time before I do so again



Bad timing Drivermann.  

Could have been CBA or WOW some years ago and you would be a very happy first time investor.

No one here can give you investment advice, so you need to make your own decision. 

Personally, I thought the Myer IPO was a dogs breakfast (promoting your stock with a half nude woman is not cool) and I would not have gone anywhere near it. If I had have for a short term stag gain, I would have cut and run very quickly and saved my cash.



Good luck.


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## Joe Blow (25 January 2010)

*Re: Myer are they worth holding*



Drivermann said:


> Having bought Myer share through the IPO and watched they go backwards almost from day 1. I am wondering does anyone think they are worth hanging on to or is time to cut my losses and bail out. This is the first time I've bought shares through an IPO and it could be a long time before I do so again




Drivermann,

Nobody here is legally allowed to advise you to buy, sell or hold any stock. Only licensed financial advisers can provide members of the public with that kind of specific financial advice.


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## Drivermann (26 January 2010)

Wasn't looking for financial advise. Just wondering if anybody bought shares through the IPO and what have others done with their parcel of shares


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## philly (26 January 2010)

Hi Drivermann,
I got a small parcel in the IPO whilst I'm disappointed with the fall in the SP
the reason I got them was for the dividend. Still holding ATM


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## Drivermann (27 January 2010)

Hi Philly, sounds like a reason to hold them until at least the dividend gets paid. Regards Drivermann


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## Bibimbap (30 August 2012)

Seems to be picking up a lot this week with lots of volume.
Results and dividend coming up.


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## herzy (30 August 2012)

Bibimbap said:


> Seems to be picking up a lot this week with lots of volume.
> Results and dividend coming up.




looks like a 5% dividend, and sp has increased about that too


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## piggybank (28 December 2013)




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## JTLP (29 December 2013)

Somebody must be tearing their hair out at Myer HQ over this whole website debacle. Still down and it must be costing them dearly over this Xmas break...


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## notting (30 December 2013)

Apparently the name of their IT contractor is David Jones.


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## piggybank (30 December 2013)

Department store Myer says it will take a few more days to restart its website after it crashed on Christmas Day. Myer says it took its website down following reports that customers were having difficulty with it freezing or operating slowly. The technical issues happened around the time end-of-year sales kicked off, but Myer says the glitches in its site were not related to the volume of traffic. In a statement, the retailer says it has identified the cause of technical difficulties on its website and is now working to fix the problems. The online shop has now been out of action for five days, and Myer says it will take a few more days to test the site and ensure it is working before it is restarted. Australia's two major department stores have come under fire for their belated entry into online shopping, with both Myer and David Jones relaunching their websites in the last couple of years. Myer says the website outage is unlikely to meaningfully dent its post-Christmas sales as online purchases make up less than 1 per cent of its total turnover. Investors seem to agree that the outage will not seriously dent sales, with Myer's share price rising a further 0.9 per cent today to $2.765, after also climbing 1 cent on Friday.


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## infamous (30 December 2013)

They may not lose customers from this debacle, but their lack of care in the online sector isn't going to help them gain new customers!

Another case of old bricks and mortar dogs struggling to adapt to the new way of doing business.


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## notting (31 January 2014)

Yeah real smart. 

Like the ACCC is going to approve that! You f%$#@ing morons.

(Re-approach to DJS)

How much money would they waist on teeing that up only to have it slammed.

Sack the board.


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## skc (31 January 2014)

notting said:


> Yeah real smart.
> 
> Like the ACCC is going to approve that! You f%$#@ing morons.
> 
> ...




I don't know why all the analysts are thinking ACCC will have a problem with it. Yes they are the only 2 department stores in the country, but they are competing against the other tens of thousands of specialty stores. MYR+DJS combined sales is ~$5B a year, against total department store sales of ~$18-20B a year. While the greater TOTAL retail sales in the country runs at ~$250B per year.

There's no industry called "Department stores" (and even if there was MYR+DJS hardly make up 25%). The industry is called "Retail" and these two companies are but a very small percentage of the industry. If you break it down by category (apparel, cosmetics, electronics etc) I am sure the result would be the same.

There are plenty of other issues with a possible merger. e.g. Will they keep Jen Hawkins or Miranda Kerr? Which company will have worse customer service? Should they retain the IT system from Myers built in the 60s, or the IT system from DJS built in the 50s? But reducing competition in the retail world should definitely not be one of them.


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## SilverRanger (31 January 2014)

skc said:


> There are plenty of other issues with a possible merger. e.g. Will they keep Jen Hawkins or Miranda Kerr?




Miranda Kerr, no question there


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## McLovin (31 January 2014)

SilverRanger said:


> Miranda Kerr, no question there




She's gone down a few points in my books since she hooked up with the Beib. 

DJS board are quite strange. They rush to market with a hoax takeover offer, but kept this under wraps for months. I agree with skc, I can't see why the ACCC would give two hoots about it.


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## skc (31 January 2014)

McLovin said:


> She's gone down a few points in my books since she hooked up with the Beib.
> 
> DJS board are quite strange. They rush to market with a hoax takeover offer, but kept this under wraps for months. I agree with skc, I can't see why the ACCC would give two hoots about it.




Wasn't she hooking up with James Packer? So she's a cougar and a gold digger?! 

I say the merger should be called off!


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## notting (31 January 2014)

ACCC will have an issue with price gouging the spaces for a start.
They are pretty conservative and give the community the benefit of the doubt.
They would not let this go through in a pink fit whether it's right or wrong.
They'd be smartest to get the Beib now that would work.


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## McLovin (31 January 2014)

skc said:


> Wasn't she hooking up with James Packer? So she's a cougar and a gold digger?!




Her wedding to Orlando ended because of her and the Bieb. I've met her a couple of times when she (and I) were much younger. She's not the smartest girl, and back then she had a bit of reputation and I'm reliably informed she still does.


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## skc (31 January 2014)

McLovin said:


> Her wedding to Orlando ended because of her and the Bieb*. I've met her a couple of times when she (and I) were much younger. *She's not the smartest girl, and back then she had a bit of reputation and I'm reliably informed she still does.




I am afraid you will need to supply an audited broker statement to prove that!


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## notting (10 February 2014)

Despite many ******** analysts saying, publicly, in the media, that the ACCC had given a nod and a wink to MYR.

Today -



> "The ACCC wishes to make clear that it has formed no such view and it has provided no such indication, either formally or informally, to Myer or any other person," The ACCC said in a statement.


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## VSntchr (20 March 2014)

Looks like the market has had it right for the last 12 months with DJS HY result looking better than MYR's numbers.

Looks like MYR is struggling with costs while DJS is not. L4L sales growth is continuing for both companies but again DJS is winning this race also.


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## HawkNZ (10 June 2014)

Hiya

First time poster here.. go easy... noob n all 

Like Divermann I also bought a small parcel (min) in the IPO....this at a time when I knew nothing much about the stockmarket, bought the shares basically on a stupid idea that "this seems like a good idea" lol, I remember briefly reading the prospectus, no idea really what I was looking at but "must be good cause we shop there"  

As this was my first dabble in the market, I then made another (as I realize now) fatal mistake of just buying these shares and then forgetting about them pretty much for the next 3 years.

Having spent the last few weeks doing proper education and deciding to take more of an interest in what the shares are all about, educating myself etc I am now in a more informed position than I was back then,


However we all know the state of play, my shares have fallen 48% since they floated, the only saving grace was the small amount of initial outlay.(2k)

But lets think about this,  whilst they have fallen drastically, over this time I have also received ~ $400 in dividends, I also regularly get a $20 voucher for myerone points in the post, so really, is it all that bad?  

Now I am in a position of deciding, should I cut my losses and move elsewhere? I have accepted that it is highly unlikely, almost impossible the sp will ever get near where I bought in the future, although the short term outlook maybe more favorable than in recent times....

Hope you all enjoy the entertainment that is why first sharemarket dip


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## pixel (29 October 2014)

Today's Pick:
started buying at $1.88; Stop if it closes below $1.87; looking at overhead gap as possible target


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## pixel (31 October 2014)

Amended chart: Missed two more gaps. First target reduced to $2.01, but still on track and in profit.




PS: Trailing Stop raised to Close Below $1.89


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## Wysiwyg (8 December 2014)

MYR near 2012 low of $1.525 with a close today of $1.535. Removed from the ASX100. Dimensional Fund Advisors stake now at 5%. DFA headquartered in Texas, U.S.A.


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## The Falcon (8 December 2014)

DFA are Fama/French smart Beta yeah?


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## DeepState (8 December 2014)

The Falcon said:


> DFA are Fama/French smart Beta yeah?




Fama and French are on payroll.  So is Novy-Marx.  So are LTCM alumni, Scholes and Merton.  Owned by Booth, of Chicago-Booth.

What is your interest in Smart Beta?


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## Miner (8 December 2014)

Wysiwyg said:


> MYR near 2012 low of $1.525 with a close today of $1.535. Removed from the ASX100. Dimensional Fund Advisors stake now at 5%. DFA headquartered in Texas, U.S.A.




Need some education Wysiwyg et al

Does removal from ASX 100 means the financial investment is likely not to buy more of MYR and rather fills up with other shares ? So lesser liquidity and interest to dive the share price further south ?
I was hoping MYR to turnaround but I am so wrong here. With massive Christmas buying I see in shops if MYR does not rise now in January it will be finish.

Regards


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## The Falcon (8 December 2014)

Hi RY, I'm just a punter who has read some modern portfolio theory stuff, I remember I came across DFA and the Fama/French connection from that. Personally I'm about 50% weight to index US/AU, Vanguard US broad market and ASX300, so an ever so slight nod to small cap tilt (as opposed to S&P 500 /ASX 200) and the rest direct equities. Some of my recent digging around suggests a lot of the smart beta type rules based ETFs might not be so smart given high turnover during frequent rebalancing. Obviously I'll defer to your experience on this and appreciate any comments.


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## Wysiwyg (8 December 2014)

Sorry Miner, I have no experience in that area. I'm interested in the turn around story whenever it appears.


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## DeepState (8 December 2014)

Miner said:


> Need some education Wysiwyg et al
> 
> Does removal from ASX 100 means the financial investment is likely not to buy more of MYR and rather fills up with other shares ? So lesser liquidity and interest to dive the share price further south ?
> I was hoping MYR to turnaround but I am so wrong here. With massive Christmas buying I see in shops if MYR does not rise now in January it will be finish.
> ...




This is a weird one.  Coming out of the ASX 100 in of itself is a negative to the extent that portfolios benchmarked against it will have a desire to sell MYR.  However, this also means that the stock moves into the ASX Small Ords (comprising the 101st to 300th stock in the ASX 300 index).  That actually has a lot of money following it.  As a result, at the margin, there is actually an increase in index related demand for MYR.

This says nothing else about MYR in terms of a fundamental or technical view.


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## DeepState (8 December 2014)

The Falcon said:


> Hi RY, I'm just a punter who has read some modern portfolio theory stuff, I remember I came across DFA and the Fama/French connection from that. Personally I'm about 50% weight to index US/AU, Vanguard US broad market and ASX300, so an ever so slight nod to small cap tilt (as opposed to S&P 500 /ASX 200) and the rest direct equities. Some of my recent digging around suggests a lot of the smart beta type rules based ETFs might not be so smart given high turnover during frequent rebalancing. Obviously I'll defer to your experience on this and appreciate any comments.




I reckon this is an interesting field.  Perhaps we should move it off the MYR thread.  I'll set something up.  Hope to see you there.


----------



## skyQuake (9 December 2014)

DeepState said:


> This is a weird one.  Coming out of the ASX 100 in of itself is a negative to the extent that portfolios benchmarked against it will have a desire to sell MYR.  However, this also means that the stock moves into the ASX Small Ords (comprising the 101st to 300th stock in the ASX 300 index).  That actually has a lot of money following it.  As a result, at the margin, there is actually an increase in index related demand for MYR.
> 
> This says nothing else about MYR in terms of a fundamental or technical view.




+1

Not allowed to post stats but if you can be bothered looking, stocks going into 100 underperform, stocks coming out outperform. Mid/Small cap mandated managers swing a bigger line than 100s ETFs/ Large cap only managers (if there is such a thing)


----------



## brty (12 December 2014)

SQ,


> "Not allowed to post stats"




That in itself states that /your organisation must have some pretty interesting proprietry stats, and obviously do a great deal of statistical work to find any edges.

I do love these snippets so thanks.


----------



## daz1982 (18 December 2014)

Shares now sitting @ 1.380. 

Seem like a good buy for anyone?


----------



## pixel (18 December 2014)

daz1982 said:


> Shares now sitting @ 1.380.
> 
> Seem like a good buy for anyone?



G'Day Daz,
welcome to ASF. In your intro, you say you have some cash to burn and want to learn about shares.
Well, I hope your aim is to increase your cash position. Otherwise I'm happy to give you my account number :

wrt MYR now trading at $1.38: On what analysis/ valuation do you base the assumption "good buy"?
A couple of months ago, it traded around $1.75, and I bought a few because it seemed to come off a support/ consolidation zone, and I saw a good chance that at least one of the gaps above might be closed. At $1.90, the advance stalled and I got off again.




Over subsequent weeks, the slide continued, and a falling trend became apparent. After Dec 4th, the rate of decline became even steeper - in line with the overall market decline. That brings us to the tiny upswing of the last two days. Is that enough to make MYR a buy? Not sure - because today was dual Option Expiry Day, which is usually surrounded by deception, one-day countertrends, and higher volume.

As you see, I'm coming from a Technical background, basing my analysis on what I see in charts. If you compare the above chart with EHL's situation 4 weeks ago, you may notice a potential parallel. I posted EHL a little earlier in this post: https://www.aussiestockforums.com/forums/showthread.php?t=29112&p=853915&viewfull=1#post853915


----------



## daz1982 (19 December 2014)

Hi Pixel, 

Yes I'm here to make some $$$ we are such a greedy bunch  I also enjoy analysis (I might not be very good at it though) and want to learn from people like yourself

Regarding Myer - going by history I believe it is at its low point and will get a boost in Jan/Feb 2015, looking back on 5 years history in Nov/Dev share price seem to drop, then xmas sales and stocktake come through and in Jan/Feb stocks generally go back up - this is the outcome I will be looking for and to sell in Jan-Feb. 

Overall this year xmas is later so there is a later trading shift which is currently making sales look poor however they may still come through. Due to this Myer I believe is currently cutting hours in stores to hit a profit number (hmm how about this Wonderful campaign - I think they are going to short deliver especially when they are cutting hours). Potential take over?

Bernie may leave could be a positive huh

Online I believe is a good opportunity for Myer they need to get their act together on this. On the other hand online is a threat especially when it is so easy for shoppers to save $$ and buy online from US sites etc. 

So overall quite risky, but I'll have a crack


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## daz1982 (19 December 2014)

In terms of stripping costs there is opportunity, cut HO staff, re-negotiate lease deals etc 

Consumers should be spending more on themselves they have low mortgage rates, cheap petrol  

Sephora may be a risk but I need to do some research


----------



## notting (2 March 2015)

What was so good about Bernie Brookes exactly? MYR down 10% or the CFO for that matter!


----------



## notting (30 March 2015)

Hasn't really fallen below the price of the dividend it just payed, which was significant in this world of low interest rates and yield fad.
That's a positive.


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## joeno (2 July 2015)

What do you guys think, is Myers heading to its grave? Hard to believe one of Australia's most recognizable brands is down so much... yet suppose with the online shopping boom there is not really any place for a company like myers anymore.


----------



## Triathlete (3 July 2015)

joeno said:


> What do you guys think, is Myers heading to its grave? Hard to believe one of Australia's most recognizable brands is down so much... yet suppose with the online shopping boom there is not really any place for a company like myers anymore.





I do not know if it going to the grave but having a look at the technical's at the present I would not be putting any money into it as it is still in a downtrend so price could still move lower from here. 

(I do not follow the stock just a quick view on the charts)

A fundamental view from www.lincolnindicators.com.au    is below.

MYR is in a Strong Financial Health position, but fails our management assessment criteria. Thus the company cannot be considered a Star Growth Stock. Additionally, the company's dividend sustainability is in question. As such MYR cannot be considered a Star Income Stock.

Myer has consistently reported volatile earnings growth and this will most likely continue with the poor consumer sentiment in retail remaining. The department store model continues to be challenging as retail evolves. MYR potentially would benefit from continued expansion and improvements through their online store and improved consumer spending.


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## skc (27 August 2015)

joeno said:


> What do you guys think, is Myers heading to its grave? Hard to believe one of Australia's most recognizable brands is down so much... yet suppose with the online shopping boom there is not really any place for a company like myers anymore.




May be there is hope afterall....



> FED: David Jones' new owner makes big changes
> 
> By Drew Cratchley
> SYDNEY, Aug 27 AAP - Sales at David Jones have soared under its new South African
> ...


----------



## notting (9 September 2015)

One directors confident and smart 



> RICHARD BROOK UMBERS
> Total consideration  3 September 2015  - $100,002 .83
> Total consideration  7 September 2015  - $99,997.43
> On market trade


----------



## tech/a (9 September 2015)

notting said:


> One directors confident and smart




Part of a package?
Not necessarily smart.
May not have a choice.
Often Director buying is not 
as it appears.


----------



## notting (9 September 2015)

It's an on market purchase for his families super fund.  Not a package thing. Even so directors have a history of buying their own story a bit too enthusiastically at times, but I think it's smart because Myer is trading as if it is about 10 empty giant shipping containers sitting in shopping centers with the word Myer written on them and nothing else happening.


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## notting (21 July 2017)

People seem to have forgotten that Lew bought a few. Time to put the house on it, sit back and wait for him to come back home!!!!!!!!!!!!


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## Miner (21 July 2017)

notting said:


> People seem to have forgotten that Lew bought a few. Time to put the house on it, sit back and wait for him to come back home!!!!!!!!!!!!




Notting 
wonderfully who says you have dyslexia ?? You are the only one who has posted back in 2015  and now again in 2017. Lew or No Lew. Visiting the MYER shop - it is painful. Demotivated sales force (WA I am referring) just waiting to be sacked. The product line is terrible. Prices are terrible. I can buy the fragrances at half price of same brand from Chemists Warehouse. Why pay colossal money to models like Jennifer Hawkins and alike. There are beautiful models at very low price to represent the mass and hence to sell the product.
Same Anglo Saxon high price models not recognising the Australian demography has changed. What is needed a big kick to oust the current board and senior management and have a thorough overhaul? I used to hold and sold out at loss. The only incentive of some one to take over. But with Amazon fever, I do not see any near uplift of MYER. But I have been proved wrong many times. So this could be no exception.


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## galumay (22 July 2017)

I love a good contrarian, turn around, play as much as...anyone...but I cant say Myer has piqued my interest. 

I guess I should at least run my ruler over it so I can have an opinion!

I do think the threat of online/Amazon to traditional retail has been over rated. The trick is picking the retailers that will survive the shake up and emerge with good businesses on the other side.


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## notting (24 July 2017)

I think about this this way.
Lew's stuff is going fine in terms or retail performance independent of share price which is also relatively strong and he has taken a first bite of Myer.
He has probably the best understanding of Myer than anyone and the skill and track record of how to make retail in general work in the current environment.
He seemed happy to go nuts on it up to around $1.25
So say what ever you like about 'Myer,' your not Lew!!!


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## skc (24 July 2017)

notting said:


> I think about this this way.
> Lew's stuff is going fine in terms or retail performance independent of share price which is also relatively strong and he has taken a first bite of Myer.
> He has probably the best understanding of Myer than anyone and the skill and track record of how to make retail in general work in the current environment.
> He seemed happy to go nuts on it up to around $1.25
> So say what ever you like about 'Myer,' your not Lew!!!




FWIW, I think Lew's Smiggles will be in trouble soon. I have a 6 year old daughter so I frequent Smiggles a fair bit. Yes it has the fan fare of little kids... but gosh are the items over priced or what? You can usually get the same/equivalent colourful stationary down the mall at Big W for about 1/3 of the price. Imitation might be the highest form of flattery... but it's also bad for margins. I can't help but notice that sales are more frequent at Smiggles these days.

On Lew taking over Myer... the possibility certainly exist and I won't bet against Lew for having a go. But it's difficult to see which lever exactly he can pull to generate sustainable competitive advantage. May be there are cost efficiencies to be had and synergies to extract...but what else is there?



galumay said:


> I do think the threat of online/Amazon to traditional retail has been over rated. The trick is picking the retailers that will survive the shake up and emerge with good businesses on the other side.




Myer and department stores in general has been dying a slow death even before any hint of Amazon hitting our shores. Myer has tried lots of tricks... upmarket, private label, mass premium and now using in store "experience" to drive foot traffic. That's nothing new... Google Jen Hawkins wardrobe malfunction and you will see that in store experience peaked some years ago!


----------



## notting (24 July 2017)

Oh don't worry, I am well and truly across the Jen Hawkins wardrobe total function.  I've probably watched it about 480,000,000 times and that was on the day it happened. Apart from that.

Lew knows what to do and is not silly with his money!
As far as Myer goes he can create plenty of synergies and with that it doesn't have to become what it was in size or even in what it did.  It just needs to work on some level with a new format that foot traffic retailers will get right at some point. Who knows maybe Lew could get into bed with Amazon and make it a giant, try it all on at MYER thing. 
Another thing to consider is just how bad Virgin hurt Qantas as a cheaper no frills disrupter 17 years ago as that made little or no money.  Where is Virgin now that they have to run as an actual business rather than a disrupter.  Big difference.  Amazon has started to turn a profit but compaired to it's market cap PHhhhhh.
But if we believe in Amazon we should buy XRO.  Same template!


----------



## skc (24 July 2017)

notting said:


> Who knows maybe Lew could get into bed with Amazon and make it a giant, try it all on at MYER thing.




That's actually not a bad idea... not sure there's much money in it for MYR but a great use of the space.



notting said:


> Another thing to consider is just how bad Virgin hurt Qantas as a cheaper no frills disrupter 17 years ago as that made little or no money.  Where is Virgin now that they have to run as an actual business rather than a disrupter.  Big difference.  Amazon has started to turn a profit but compaired to it's market cap PHhhhhh.




Yes and no... Virgin was never quite as big as Qantas and it has too many startegic shareholders to act in a coherent manner. Amazon on the other hand (yes it's most probably very overpriced) has no master to answer to but itself. It's funds are internally generated and there's no implicit commitment to direct any of the operating cashflow to investors. It is also a massive behemoth relative to most retailers.... like playing a game of chicken driving a Hyundai Excel against a freight train. 



notting said:


> But if we believe in Amazon we should buy XRO.  Same template!




I am sure XRO has an out... they just need to raise their prices once a steady state market share is achieved. The switching cost is so high that a creeping $2 per month every year will see little customer churn but the higher revenue will drop straight to the bottom line. I am not saying it's a great buy at these levels... but I can see how this market cap can be sustained down the line.



notting said:


> Oh don't worry, I am well and truly across the Jen Hawkins wardrobe total function.  I've probably watched it about 480,000,000 times and that was on the day it happened. Apart from that.


----------



## notting (24 July 2017)

skc said:


> I am sure XRO has an out... they just need to raise their prices once a steady state market share is achieved. The switching cost is so high that a creeping $2 per month every year will see little customer churn but the higher revenue will drop straight to the bottom line. I am not saying it's a great buy at these levels... but I can see how this market cap can be sustained down the line.




I was pretty harsh XRO and did well shorting it at 40 ish, but now when you think of the Amazon model it could be A pretty awesome close your eyes, bottom draw it and set an alert for 90 or something.  Like you suggest who wants to change the accounting system to save a few bucks.  A lot harder than clicking on ebay instead of Amazon which I do regularly.


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## craft (24 July 2017)

skc said:


> FWIW, I think Lew's Smiggles will be in trouble soon. I have a 6 year old daughter so *I frequent Smiggles a fair bit*. Yes it has the fan fare of little kids... but gosh are the items over priced or what? You can usually get the same/equivalent colourful stationary down the mall at Big W for about 1/3 of the price. Imitation might be the highest form of flattery... but it's also bad for margins. I can't help but notice that sales are more frequent at Smiggles these days.




A few years ago my girls when around the same age used to drag me into Smiggle - Same deal the stuff was way over priced and available much less elsewhere. Still the result was cute passionate 6 year old - score 1, logical rational adult consumer score 0.  I somehow suspect your effort probably leaves us oldies down down 2 - Nil.   Maybe not in trouble as quick as you would imagine - although the magic, whatever it is could just vaporise if the kids move on - but it won't die from competitors squeezing margins.



skc said:


> On Lew taking over Myer... the possibility certainly exist and I won't bet against Lew for having a go. But it's difficult to see which lever exactly he can pull to generate sustainable competitive advantage. May be there are cost efficiencies to be had and synergies to extract...but what else is there?
> 
> 
> 
> Myer and department stores in general has been dying a slow death even before any hint of Amazon hitting our shores. Myer has tried lots of tricks... upmarket, private label, mass premium and now using in store "experience" to drive foot traffic. That's nothing new... Google Jen Hawkins wardrobe malfunction and you will see that in store experience peaked some years ago!




Myer should be a decent platform and size to access a range of large third party brands that both want to be merchandised as part of their brand build and can control and are prepared to differentiate their wholesale price based on merchandise presence rather than just volume.

Long-term viability probably requires a paradigm shift in supplier relationships to dramatically lower the cost of goods compared to online competition rather than squeeze more out of the operational cost base. PMV board probably better placed to seek out the new model than MYR but still high risk.


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## skc (25 July 2017)

craft said:


> A few years ago my girls when around the same age used to drag me into Smiggle - Same deal the stuff was way over priced and available much less elsewhere. Still the result was cute passionate 6 year old - score 1, logical rational adult consumer score 0.  I somehow suspect your effort probably leaves us oldies down down 2 - Nil.




I just tell my daughter that, if she wants some gel pen, she can get a pack of 20 from KMart or a pack of 4 from Smiggles for the same price. And I will _discuss _with her until she agrees with me that getting 20 is the rational decision. Then I will tell her that she will only get it when she achieves whatever it is that I want her to achieve at that point in time (like no morning meltdowns for X weeks). You can get a lot of operational leverage from kid stationaries ...



craft said:


> Maybe not in trouble as quick as you would imagine - although the magic, whatever it is could just vaporise if the kids move on - but it won't die from competitors squeezing margins.




I guess the point to note is that there are now kid-approved alternatives available, which wasn't the case 12 months ago. I don't think I've ever bought anything from Smiggles that's not on sale. However I do agree that not all parents behave the same way... if I extrapolate my own personal spending habits to the entire population there would be no retail sector to speak of.



craft said:


> Long-term viability probably requires a paradigm shift in supplier relationships to dramatically lower the cost of goods compared to online competition rather than squeeze more out of the operational cost base. PMV board probably better placed to seek out *the new model *than MYR but still high risk.




I agree that some kind of new retail model is needed for a MYR takeover to make sense. I just don't know what it is and haven't heard anyone coming up with a viable one offshore either.


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## galumay (25 July 2017)

skc said:


> Myer and department stores in general has been dying a slow death even before any hint of Amazon hitting our shores. Myer has tried lots of tricks... upmarket, private label, mass premium and now using in store "experience" to drive foot traffic.




Which begs the question, why? Also, where did that market share go because while moderate, there has been overall growth in the sector.

I am in no position to try to answer the question, I live in an extremely remote corner of Australia with the nearest shopping center about 1300kms away by road....when you can actually drive out which is only about 6 months of the year! Also the tropical climate makes most clothing redundant and my major retail spending is stuff for fishing and boating - and we do have a tackle shop!

So I wonder, why dont people shop at Myer anymore, and where do they shop instead?


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## craft (25 July 2017)

skc said:


> I just tell my daughter that, if she wants some gel pen, she can get a pack of 20 from KMart or a pack of 4 from Smiggles for the same price. And I will _discuss _with her until she agrees with me that getting 20 is the rational decision. Then I will tell her that she will only get it when she achieves whatever it is that I want her to achieve at that point in time (like no morning meltdowns for X weeks). You can get a lot of operational leverage from kid stationaries ...
> 
> 
> 
> I guess the point to note is that there are now kid-approved alternatives available, which wasn't the case 12 months ago. I don't think I've ever bought anything from Smiggles that's not on sale. However I do agree that not all parents behave the same way... if I extrapolate my own personal spending habits to the entire population there would be no retail sector to speak of




Wow 6-year-old female and you’re still the manipulator not the manipulated.  Your'e impresive – But she will lift her game.

Ultimately, she and her peers will decide the future of Smiggle and I remain doubtful it will be on grounds of parent rationality. Kid apporved alternative sounds more ominous if that's correct.

You probably don’t realise yet that despite being a rational person you will at some stage buy her $100 pyjamas from Peter Alexander instead of 10 pairs from Target– unless you can rationalise with or break the heart of a teenager.

Overpriced crap desired by those that don’t yet have to balance their own money is one retail model that seems to work – at least until it loses its peer desirability.


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## McLovin (25 July 2017)

galumay said:


> So I wonder, why dont people shop at Myer anymore, and where do they shop instead?




The problem with all these old school retailers (especially department stores) is that they still believe in corralling the customer into their store. It's no doubt different for you being in a regional area, but I can pretty much get anything I want delivered in 24 hours. The Iconic delivered me a pair of pants and a shirt last Friday within 3 hours of my ordering them ($13 charge or free if I can wait until the next day) . I can have appliances delivered next day when ordering at night (free delivery).

Contrast that to Myer...



> *STANDARD DELIVERY*
> 
> • FREE delivery on orders $100 or over or $9.95 for orders up to $99.99
> 
> ...




Quite simply, imo, their competitors have more variety, better service and faster, cheaper delivery.

When Amazon Prime arrives and I can literally get everything including a kitchen sink delivered in 3 hours who is going to bother with Myer? Even in shopping centres in the capital cities, the variety has exploded over the last 7-10 years, so there isn't much incentive for shoppers to get lost in a department store.

I don't have the answers on how to fix MYR, but surely recognising the internet as a real, competitive sales channel is a step in the right direction. It just seems to show how out of touch they are with anyone under 40.


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## skc (25 July 2017)

craft said:


> You probably don’t realise yet that despite being a rational person you will at some stage buy her $100 pyjamas from Peter Alexander instead of 10 pairs from Target– unless you can rationalise with or break the heart of a *teenager*.




Where is that _:Oh how I dread this day: _emoticon?



craft said:


> Overpriced crap desired by those that don’t yet have to balance their own money is one retail model that seems to work – at least until it loses its peer desirability.




I have a small holding in LOV and it is one of my key risk factors... will their reasonably-priced crap lose peer desirability soon?


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## Quant (26 July 2017)

Holding MYR into reporting not my thing  . Like a chook raffle on a 40 degree day you never know what your going to get


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## notting (26 July 2017)

Quant said:


> Like a chook raffle on a 40 degree day you never know what your going to get







Just tryen it on....


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## Garpal Gumnut (26 July 2017)

The only reason to hold MYR is as a short of some sort.


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## notting (28 September 2017)

Lew sends out a letter to his shareholders so the whole world can see that 'he would like the details of registered holders.'  He does this on Premier investment letter head and as an ASX announcement.  For gods sake!!
Seems to be wanting to attack MYR whilst holding the price up on the day it goes ex dividend.
I was shorting the stock thinking I had a bit of time before he would go for a second bite.  After it fell after paying the div.
I quickly reversed the short then went short again today at .79 thinking it was just harassment which he will continue to do to disrupt the board and make the market lose even more confidence in management.
Then collect the whole thing.
So back short again. 
Was lucky I didn't lose too much given what it did today and will continue to build the short on strength.
Most are expecting him to harass for a while before going in for the feed.


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## satanoperca (28 September 2017)

Myers is a dinosaur that cannot compete in today's world. Simple

Out dated, no customer experience run by arrogant individuals who have no understanding of the digital world.

The time for a short was the IPO, they have nothing left and will only be a memory in peoples minds within 10 years.


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## notting (28 September 2017)

Sure it was, specially if you called it at the time.........


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## mcgrath111 (3 October 2017)

satanoperca said:


> Myers is a dinosaur that cannot compete in today's world. Simple
> 
> Out dated, no customer experience run by arrogant individuals who have no understanding of the digital world.
> 
> The time for a short was the IPO, they have nothing left and will only be a memory in peoples minds within 10 years.



It boggles me as to why this hasn't dropped into the 40's. 

I wouldn't be surprised if it gets consolidated under a bigger banner. But who would want it? It sits in a strange place in terms of customer segmentation. (Fancy Target, Shitty David Jones)


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## greggles (20 January 2018)

Does the Aussie retail icon have a future? It's been hitting all-time lows recently and there doesn't appear to be any positives on the horizon.


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## Miner (21 January 2018)

Folks
Some thoughts on the table for hopeful and existing holders of Myer since it is more than likely that none of the executive management team reads our forum.
We all agreed that myer board is not working rightly or dont have the competence to turn around the company. Solomon Lews is just waiting the company to sink at the bottom so that he can buy. 
What about we individually pick up at least one area where we can provide some suggestion of improvement znd directly write to the board? We can save thousands of jobs.
I have identified some and going to write to them.
1. Quality of goods to be improved.
2. Too many brands to be reduced. Saves inventory and cost.
3. Stop draining out money paying big dollars to top models like Jennifer Hawkins.
4. Undertake customer profiling and have product mix accordingly.
5. Stop loss making products and reduce them. For example fragrance - stop or reduce them. We all can buy cheap at chemist warehouse.
6. Too high margin is not helping the customers. The competition is high. So have a reality check.
7. Cut down top layers and bring efficiency.
8. Bring back the iconic customer service. The staff are now of so reduced volume as well they are demoralised waiting for jobs to disappear.
Etc. Etc. Let us write directly and not to generic common addresses.  Some good thoughts will prevail.
Regards


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## satanoperca (21 January 2018)

Miner said:


> I have identified some and going to write to them.
> 1. Quality of goods to be improved. Simple in idea, but requires a complete overhaul of the buying teams and cultural change. Their level of arrogance blinds them from seeing opportunities and understanding the current market place.
> 2. Too many brands to be reduced. Saves inventory and cost. See above and add a leader with vision and invite into the fashion market place.
> 3. Stop draining out money paying big dollars to top models like Jennifer Hawkins. Agreed, invest in robotic models instead, they are less demanding the real models.
> ...




All in all, I don't think the company can be saved until there is a complete restructure of the board and I can only see this when Solly can get is hands on it and that means it must fail first.

Myers needs to modernize and turn shopping back into an experience with knowledgeable staff on the ground, products that meet the market and stop trying to satisfy eveyone.

Several years ago I was involved in the revamp of Melbourne Myers, some great design fit outs where implement and it lifted the level of presentation and atmosphere in the store, however, 3 months down the track and all the good work was wasted, clothing racks were stacked to the brim, everything was disorganised and there was way, way to much product on the floor, it looked like a junk shop. I am yet to return.


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## notting (18 February 2018)

It's at times like these when I think.  'You know you could just about bet the house on this pretty shortly.  Lew's definitely not gonna let 120 million just disapear.
Thinking after falling from $5 to 55c or so that the thing would be cheap.
Not so, they have 30 expensive lease contracts and here is how it compares -
HVN PE 10.8
JBH PE 14.7
*MYR PE 39.64 *
Which means it would be a reasonable buy at about .20c per share.


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## Miner (18 February 2018)

Well documented Notting.
For a change, I took my emotion out (could be wrong this time who knows) and looked into the scene.
Option 1 - New CEO will do something worthwhile and the market will respond. Could be a good time to hold or to add
Option 2 - Lew could take over as this is too cheap a price for him considering earlier effort. Could be a bonanza to hold.
Option 3 - Look into present financials, past outcome with so many promises. Consider the Chairman is equally responsible and now he is running the show knowing it is not just the CEO who is responsible to have this situation with Myer and time to  SELL.
I took the option 3 and sold out.
Often my decisions were wrong with plenty of times. So hopefully there will be a return time.


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## satanoperca (19 February 2018)

notting said:


> It's at times like these when I think.  'You know you could just about bet the house on this pretty shortly.  Lew's definitely not gonna let 120 million just disapear.
> Thinking after falling from $5 to 55c or so that the thing would be cheap.
> Not so, they have 30 expensive lease contracts and here is how it compares -
> HVN PE 10.8
> ...




I think this is even to optimistic. It is not just the current CEO that f--kd this company, it was the past. Out of date, old dudes that think they know better and are not intouch with changing demographics and technology.

They should have asked their teenage children how to direct the ship, would have got a better result.

Until Myers, heavily reduces their reliance on expensive bricks and mortar, they are a dead duck.

All things must come to an end, I cannot see Myers surviving much past 5 years.


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## Smurf1976 (19 February 2018)

Looking at competing "bricks and mortar" retailers they seem to be either doing OK or are owned by a much larger company (Wesfarmers or Woolworths) who can afford to either prop up an unprofitable division if they think they can turn it around or alternatively shut it down in an orderly manner.

Myer would seem to be in the weakest position and I can't see them surviving much longer given that it seems pretty clear that at least one department store type retailer is going to disappear sooner or later.

If Wesfarmers management reach a similar conclusion then logically they'll seek to move their struggling Target stores into part of Myer's space in terms of what they sell and then just wait for Myer to go bust which would happen more quickly with another competitor. They could tolerate the loss in the short term and then do pretty well given that they should have far lower overheads than Myer has (mostly because Target doesn't have huge stores in super expensive locations). Just a thought.


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## McLovin (19 February 2018)

McLovin said:


> I don't have the answers on how to fix MYR, but surely recognising the internet as a real, competitive sales channel is a step in the right direction. It just seems to show how out of touch they are with anyone under 40.




Out of touch much...



> Mr Lew also reiterated his criticism that Mr Hounsell, the former chairman of Spotless Group and a former CEO of Arthur Andersen, lacked retail knowledge and experience.
> 
> Mr Hounsell was appointed executive chairman of Myer last week after the board dismissed Mr Umbers and will have day to day control of Australia's largest department store chain until a new CEO can be found.
> 
> ...




Read more: http://www.afr.com/business/retail/...-is-incompetent-20180218-h0wa7g#ixzz57VYSESkH 

An incredible amount of hubris is required for the executive chairman of a large retailing operation to openly admit he has never used the internet to shop.


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## greggles (19 February 2018)

McLovin said:


> An incredible amount of hubris is required for the executive chairman of a large retailing operation to openly admit he has never used the internet to shop.




Especially given the growth in online retail sales in Australia. It's pretty clear where the future of retail is and it's not in old-fashioned upmarket department stores with extortionate markups.

Bricks and mortar department store sales have been flat for a decade and the discount stores are doing much better than the Myer/David Jones style.






Myer seems like a dinosaur these days. It's glory days have long since passed and it's too big, too old and too tired to re-invent itself effectively. Its market cap still seems too large given the rapidly changing face of retail. David Jones is in the same boat.


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## brty (19 February 2018)

In both the US and UK the big retailers are being hammered and not just by the internet. It seems that overall spending on/in retail is changing.
These types of headlines are from around the world recently........
"  Sears and Kmart brands - A disappearing act this holiday season. Still the company insisted it is on track with its turnaround plans, despite the falling sales and financial difficulties."

"Lego, the world's most profitable toy manufacturer, suffered the first fall in global sales for more than a decade in the first six months of 2017. Toys R Us's problems are just the latest sign of high street distress"

In terms of Myer, the above headline for Sears in US/Canada about turnaround plans, seems very familiar.
IMO it might just be the model is broken, and Myer now having long term leases instead of owning the bricks and mortar are in deep trouble. (I think they still own the Melbourne city real estate only!)

A revenue downgrade (again) and the swift departure of the CEO, just before the half yearly results, paints a gloomy picture here.
Share price at 5 year lows means it is probably going lower.


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## notting (5 March 2018)

RAID


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## Calvin27 (7 March 2018)

Miner said:


> What about we individually pick up at least one area where we can provide some suggestion of improvement znd directly write to the board? We can save thousands of jobs.




Imo myer needs to stop this boom and bust retail model. It's not to do with inventory or range or whatever, it comes down to the basics - sales. it needs to stop this perpetual stocktake sale model where half the time you get oversized clothes for a penny while the rest of the time you pay double the nearest competitor for a regular size. The strong success of retailers like H&M and Zara is repeat business. People walk in frequently and their business model is built for that. Those retailers do not have flash sales frequently (I believe they would rather shred their stock) and their pricing is lower than that of Myer's RRP but at a significant margin to stocktake sale Myer. Customers can walk in with confidence knowing that prices are reasonable and this gives them confidence. The whole, 'I'll wait for the next sale' retail model is killing them.

On a side note, how much are their assets worth? They have some nice buildings in good locations.


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## Gringotts Bank (7 March 2018)

Calvin27 said:


> They have some nice buildings in good locations.




IMO, they will be converted to a mix of apartments/gym/spa/healthfood/parking mix, as is the trend.


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## notting (7 March 2018)

Raider seemed to be still around yesterday but was limiting to .455 by the afternoon.
Has not appeared today and there is a bit of a seller in there today so far!
Unlikely to be lew unless it gets very aggressive this afternoon.
find out who or what it was tomorrow.


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## Garpal Gumnut (7 March 2018)

Gringotts Bank said:


> IMO, they will be converted to a mix of apartments/gym/spa/healthfood/parking mix, as is the trend.



Many are rented or are not owned outright.

gg


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## McLovin (7 March 2018)

Garpal Gumnut said:


> Many are rented or are not owned outright.
> 
> gg




All the property is gone.



			
				Calvin27 said:
			
		

> It's not to do with inventory or range or whatever, it comes down to the basics - sales.




Sure, but if your inventory and range are out of date by the time you have them in stock, or at a price point that's uncompetitive, then you have to discount to move stuff out the door. Zara and their ilk have created a throwaway apparel market. Women wear clothing on average 6-7 times before binning it. With those sort of spending patters, it makes it very hard to get a woman to spend $250 on a pair of Sass and Bide jeans, when Zara sell the same design for under $100 that's more or less the same quality, and H&M will do it for under $50. It's not surprising that labels have lost the cachet that they had pre-Instagram.

When I walk into a MYR store it feels dated, and cluttered, like somewhere my grandmother would go and buy my underwear for Christmas. It's a mid-market retailer and it seems to do everything to remind a shopper that it's a mid-market retailer. When I walk into a Zara store it feels upmarket, even though it's very much mid-market.

These two projects sort of highlight what I'm talking about...


Zara
https://bokor.com.au/shop/item/zara-retail-stores

Myer

https://www.caraipm.com.au/myer.html

Where would you rather shop?

On the plus side, I see MYR now offer same day delivery for internet orders. About time!


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## Garpal Gumnut (7 March 2018)

Myer are in a bind. I have numerous descendants who are fashion conscious but rarely buy at Myer.

I shop at Lowes. A good tailor with keks and shirt to fit my ample frame which is not due to over indulgence but rather a fear of walking lest I be run over by the lycra cycling mob.

Clothes from Asia are so cheap and the valuation of another by one's attire is so little, it makes sense to buy cheap and be comfortable. 

The only exception I make to this is RM Williams boots. 

Ideal for intimidating anti-Adani dole bludgers from Byron Bay travelled up to Bowen for 5days.

They also last for 8-10 years which is more than I can say for the anemic pigeon chested anti-Adani protesters. 

gg


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## Redbeard (13 March 2018)

Who else has gotten the last Letter from Solomon dated 19th Feb?


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## Garpal Gumnut (13 March 2018)

Redbeard said:


> Who else has gotten the last Letter from Solomon dated 19th Feb?




This is all I can find online.

http://www.abc.net.au/news/2018-02-19/solomon-lew-steps-up-attack-on-myer/9460768

Next time I have lunch with Solly I'll ask him to bring a copy and will scan it in and post it on ASF.

gg


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## greggles (23 March 2018)

Myer share price continues to sink as the negative sentiment continues to build. A $476 million loss for the last half year after impairments, no CEO, no dividend, booted out of the ASX200. Down another 10% today. It's all looking pretty bleak.


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## satanoperca (23 March 2018)

satanoperca said:


> All things must come to an end, I cannot see Myers surviving much past 5 years.




Just like some of my trading, I was wrong.

Cannot see it last past 2 years, it is gone just like Georges.

Adapt, change, innovate or die


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## Miner (23 March 2018)

greggles said:


> Myer share price continues to sink as the negative sentiment continues to build. A $476 million loss for the last half year after impairments, no CEO, no dividend, booted out of the ASX200. Down another 10% today. It's all looking pretty bleak.
> 
> View attachment 86703



Let us : ASF members make a bid to buy MYR.
Lew will definitely make another bid. 
MYR prices go up. ASF members and others sell off their holding and withdraw from bidding. 
Ha Ha.
How that sounds ?
If good then i will start buying


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## Calvin27 (5 April 2018)

Lol that is hilarious. I'm in....

in...terested that is. How much market power do you rekon ASF folks have in reality? I rekon we'd be lucky to cough up $1m of play money even if we managed to organise a stunt like that.


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## greggles (5 April 2018)

Calvin27 said:


> Lol that is hilarious. I'm in....
> 
> in...terested that is. How much market power do you rekon ASF folks have in reality? I rekon we'd be lucky to cough up $1m of play money even if we managed to organise a stunt like that.




Wouldn't that be like passing around a hat to see if we could buy the deck chairs on the Titanic just as it was heading straight for the iceberg? lol


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## Miner (5 April 2018)

greggles said:


> Wouldn't that be like passing around a hat to see if we could buy the deck chairs on the Titanic just as it was heading straight for the iceberg? lol



Greggles - technically buying deck chairs on Titanic would be few times more expensive to buy them from Harrods!  Who knows if this sinking ship will really be a Titanic or Nautilus ?
DNH


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## Calvin27 (9 April 2018)

greggles said:


> Wouldn't that be like passing around a hat to see if we could buy the deck chairs on the Titanic just as it was heading straight for the iceberg? lol




Not unless the deck chairs could keep you afloat. While we are at it, the average person would require two deck chairs to float. I've seen stranger things in the market.


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## Miner (9 April 2018)

Calvin27 said:


> Not unless the deck chairs could keep you afloat. While we are at it, the average person would require two deck chairs to float. I've seen stranger things in the market.



Good one


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## greggles (9 April 2018)

Rumours are swirling in the mainstream media of a David Jones/Myer merger.

http://www.news.com.au/finance/busi...g/news-story/e1e3e367984ebb2bd7234606f1b00b1a

If it's true it seems like a desperate move to me. There's not enough room in the marketplace for both of them, so instead of competing they become one brand.

Thoughts?


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## Smurf1976 (9 April 2018)

greggles said:


> Rumours are swirling in the mainstream media of a David Jones/Myer merger.



Once the problems of a business reach the point of being mainstream news you can be pretty certain that it’s seriously bad.

If plan A isn’t working, or in Myer’s case has had the wheels fall off, then the only rational thing to do is pursue plan B with enthusiasm.

The only way I can see Myer remaining viable as is would be to focus only on locations other than the big cities where DJ’s isn’t a competitor and has shown no interest. They could probably have a much smaller but profitable business running department stores in places like that where there’s no direct competition and retail space is cheaper.

Alternatively either merging with DJ’s or eventually going bust seem the most likely outcomes to me.


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## satanoperca (9 April 2018)

What makes anyone think that DJ's will survive as well?
When Kogan is worth more than Myers, enough said. Bricks and Mortar is dead.

To prove the point

http://www.news.com.au/finance/busi...n/news-story/eef46a37a5f2ac0ad01321878f9ccb93


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## McLovin (9 April 2018)

satanoperca said:


> What makes anyone think that DJ's will survive as well?
> When Kogan is worth more than Myers, enough said. Bricks and Mortar is dead.
> 
> To prove the point
> ...




Nah. LOV is worth more than KGN or MYR and they don't even sell on the internet. It's as much about what you're selling as how you're selling it.

That article is pretty OTT, imo.


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## satanoperca (10 April 2018)

McLovin, I agree, it is all about how you are selling it, bricks and mortar businesses can be as responsive to changing trends, keep costs to a min as online can.

I think this video clip sums up perfectly the new against the old establishment.



Kogan (new) vs Harry Norman (old)

So then the question is, what age demographic do you fit in.


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## Redbeard (11 April 2018)

Does anyone think MYR will get back to the Float Price?    Now 10 fold current value?


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## greggles (11 April 2018)

Redbeard said:


> Does anyone think MYR will get back to the Float Price?    Now 10 fold current value?




Impossible in my opinion. Large scale high-end bricks and mortar retailing is dying. Myer is a dinosaur and the meteorites are on their way.


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## Redbeard (12 April 2018)

Pity ,, they had the best of the Shareholder lunches I have been to.


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## greggles (3 May 2018)

Myer staging a bit of a comeback after announcing the appointment of John King as new CEO and Managing Director. Mr. King has previously had success transforming UK department store House of Fraser from 2006.

A bit of confidence appears to have returned to MYR, at least in the short term.


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## Redbeard (7 May 2018)

That was short lived , down again 3 days later


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## kid hustlr (29 May 2018)

greggles said:


> Myer staging a bit of a comeback after announcing the appointment of John King as new CEO and Managing Director. Mr. King has previously had success transforming UK department store House of Fraser from 2006.
> 
> A bit of confidence appears to have returned to MYR, at least in the short term.
> 
> View attachment 87204




Interesting times. I know nothing about the fundamentals.

However we do have a bit of a basing pattern as well as an increasing number of short positions offside. Is a squeeze upon us?

Food for thought if you are that way inclined


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## just_jay (29 May 2018)

Look at it this way. The stock is up close to 40% since its early April lows, with volume also increasing in the last few days. There's plenty of heavy discounting going on in store, so revenue might increase slightly but at the expense of profit. One thing I know for sure is my credit card is making an appearance in their store again.


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## greggles (30 May 2018)

just_joell said:


> Look at it this way. The stock is up close to 40% since its early April lows, with volume also increasing in the last few days. There's plenty of heavy discounting going on in store, so revenue might increase slightly but at the expense of profit. One thing I know for sure is my credit card is making an appearance in their store again.



With Myer, I'm not swayed by short term price movement. I just can't see any long term future for the company in its current form that could lead to any long term sustained share price growth. Retail has evolved very rapidly in the last few years and I don't think that Myer management understood or appreciated the impact that it would have on the fundamentals of MYR's business. 

Retail is moving away from foot traffic in bricks and mortar stores to huge warehouses, online sales and tight margins i.e. the Amazon.com model. The internet has changed the way people shop and Myer is not just an old school bricks and mortar retailer but one that has always pitched itself at the upper-middle class, which means that they will never be a Target or BigW because that is not who their market is. 

So where does Myer go from here? My view is slowly but surely into irrelevance. Any upward short term price movement is in my opinion a dead cat bounce that cannot be sustained. If MYR gets above 70c again I will eat my hat.


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## greggles (13 September 2018)

greggles said:


> If MYR gets above 70c again I will eat my hat.




Myer FY18 financial results released yesterday. Sales down, EBITA down, NPAT down, but the share price is up 37.35% today to 57c on volume of more than 49 million shares. MYR now appears to have convincingly broken out of its 35c-50c trading range it has been in for the last six and a half months. Given the FY18 results I am a little surprised by today's rally.

Online sales are up and the new Myer website is coming later this month. The company claims to have a new "customer first" plan, but shouldn't that be something a retailer like Myer has in place from the word go?

I remain unconvinced but feel I may be in danger of eating my hat if this rally continues.


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## Miner (13 September 2018)

greggles said:


> Myer FY18 financial results released yesterday. Sales down, EBITA down, NPAT down, but the share price is up 37.35% today to 57c on volume of more than 49 million shares. MYR now appears to have convincingly broken out of its 35c-50c trading range it has been in for the last six and a half months. Given the FY18 results I am a little surprised by today's rally.
> 
> Online sales are up and the new Myer website is coming later this month. The company claims to have a new "customer first" plan, but shouldn't that be something a retailer like Myer has in place from the word go?
> 
> ...



Greggles
Be brave.
Keep eating your hat (s) and rest assured, so long they are not the same Akurba Hats used by Joyce, I will buy them for you. 
Market dived down on 12th Sept following announcement. The volume and price rise today 13 Sept  probably indicating something else - time will only tell . But I am enjoying this moment after disappointment on 12th Sept.
Disclosure - Yes, Holding MYR and have been  green on 12th and 13th Sept (for a change)


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## satanoperca (13 September 2018)

Myers is dead, it will not survive unless Solie can take control


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## Miner (14 September 2018)

Satan !
Soli or no soli look at the volume of sales even today.
That is not driven by any annual performance result.
Why ASX did not issue their lame notice Please explain.


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## Miner (14 September 2018)

My wild guess on Friday arvo.
PMV sold out substantial chunk of MGF as per ASX.
Do they need fund for any deal  ?
Hope that's true but I have never won  a lotto.
Have a nice weekend holders of MYR and prospective ones too


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## Miner (14 September 2018)

returning from work I looked into MYR saga for last four days.
Market report came out on 12th Sept. Share price on 11th Sept factored the report coming and dropped by 3.3%, 1.74 m shares transacted. Do not tell me some one did not know about the financial result.
Any way official report came on 12th Sept. Transaction shot to 7.6 millions. Price dropped down by 4.6 % . Face value wise natural . Market panicked and dropped down. All ok so far.
Come 13th Sept - price shot by 37.4  %. Volume went up to 37 million - 5 times of the previous day's trading. Why ?? What ASX was doing ?
Next day 14 th Sept price shot by meagre 4.5% (about) and volume came down to 30 Millions. Still 18 times of the volume of transaction happened on 11th Sept - only 3 days back.  ASX issued no notice.
Probably they will wake up on Monday and the price will come down (may be) or gone up depends on the reply comes - we did nothing wrong.  Questions are : who bought such a high volume and paid why ?
With 2 days transaction time - I am expecting to see the notice of a major transaction on Monday to ASX.
Very happy with my investment until now. But do not want to fall down with sudden thud either.
Could MYR holders please provide some commentary ?


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## notting (15 September 2018)

If it's not Sol it's a short squeeze after a couple of upgrades and will come back to it's quicksand rent commitment a and debt problems - an untenable model.


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## Miner (17 September 2018)

Here you go. ASX has published the new substantial share holder - none by Mr Wilson's company WAM and others took 5.46% stake. That explains the high volume and price. Wilson is a strategic investor and fact that they have stirred the pot, will be hopefully now creame instead of sxxx stirrer  .
I will now wait and see what comes out.


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## greggles (16 November 2018)

*Myer denies breaching disclosure obligations, ASX places shares in trading pause*

*Myer sales continue collapse*

Things are not looking good for MYR at the moment. Based on the available information in the media and elsewhere, I imagine its share price will be hammered after it comes out of the current trading pause.


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## satanoperca (16 November 2018)

The leaded sales report causing the trading halt reportedly shows online sales were also down, wow, what a surprize, a bunch of old farts running a business that cannot even maintain bricks and mortar thought they had some idea how to design, develop, market and run an online store.

As stated above, they are doomed, myers will be gone within years.


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## greggles (16 November 2018)

The pause in trading has now turned into a trading halt until next Tuesday, 20 November.

Looks like they're going to need a few days to put the announcement together.



> The securities of Myer Holdings Limited (‘MYR’) will be placed in trading halt at the request of MYR, pending it releasing an announcement. Unless ASX decides otherwise, the securities will remain in trading halt until the earlier of the commencement of normal trading on Tuesday, 20 November 2018 or when the announcement is released to the market.


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## tinhat (16 November 2018)

They sold their Melbourne CBD premises a few years ago right? Do they own any real estate? What's the value? Current market cap is $370m.


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## greggles (25 March 2019)

greggles said:


> If MYR gets above 70c again I will eat my hat.




Cripes! It's getting close to hat eating time for me. 

What the hell has happened to Myer and why has this old dinosaur been doing so well for the last month?


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## Garpal Gumnut (25 March 2019)

greggles said:


> Cripes! It's getting close to hat eating time for me.
> 
> What the hell has happened to Myer and why has this old dinosaur been doing so well for the last month?
> 
> View attachment 93292




I would guess it is Solly.

Not our own ASF Solly.

But one Solomon Lew.

I fight my way through maidens and the not so maiden applying rouge and lippy every now and then to get to the escalators up to the toy section with the grandchildren which makes one walk past expensive china and knick-knacks to gauge the health of the enterprise.

It don't look too healthy.

Solly is a player so he may sell afore buying again. 

Caveat emptor. 

gg


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## satanoperca (25 March 2019)

Gaps always return.

Myers will die, it is just a matter of time.


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## sptrawler (1 April 2019)

satanoperca said:


> Gaps always return.
> 
> Myers will die, it is just a matter of time.



I agree with you, it doesn't look good for general merchandise stores, too easy to compare and get it online.

https://thewest.com.au/business/ret...-big-w-stores-across-australia-ng-b881153681z

The difference between Big W and Myer, apart from the quality of what they are selling, is that Woolies has something else to fall back on.


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## willoneau (30 May 2019)

In june pick as got support at 0.60 and weekly bars up on average volume. Also coming out of long term consolidation from April 2018


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## willoneau (25 July 2019)

Any thoughts on the sideways motion of the share price ?


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## sptrawler (5 March 2020)

Meyer gets a 34% drop in profits, mainly due to one offs, but the bottom line still looks shaky IMO.
Interesting even their online is increasing, sign of the times? Could have big repercussions for shopping centre owners, at a later date? 
https://www.smh.com.au/business/com...cies-restructuring-bites-20200305-p5471j.html
From the article:
A total of $15.2 million in one-off costs was the primary cause for the plunge, including $2.1 million in redundancy payouts after the company laid off 35 head office staff in January, and a $13 million spend to close its clearance floors around the country.

Stripping away these costs, net profit after tax grew 0.4 per cent for the half to $41.5 million, excluding the effect of a new accounting standard. This was still lower than Citi analyst expectations of $43 million in profit.
Overall sales stayed in line with predictions, rolling in at $1.6 billion, down 3.8 per cent on the prior corresponding half. But comparable store sales for the half declined 3.6 per cent, a much more significant decline than the 2.3 per cent analysts had forecast.

Loading
When stripping away the impact of Apple and Country Road exiting the department store, comparable sales grew 0.4 per cent.* Online sales continued to be a strong point, shooting up 25.2 per cent to $168.2 million.*


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## bux2000 (1 January 2021)

I have entered MYR in the 2021 CY competition
It will be interesting to see what 2021 brings for MYR in regard to online sales.
My very amateur's eye sees a cup and handle forming on a weekly chart no where as impressive as Tech/a's *DYL* chart but well here goes.🕵️‍♂️

Thanks
bux


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## debtfree (1 July 2021)

It's a long way back to $4.00 but I suppose you have to start somewhere.


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## debtfree (7 July 2021)

Solomon Lew’s Premier Investments has picked up 41.1 million shares in Myer at 40 cents each. Yesterday's price jumped up by 14.86% to end the day at $0.425 cents. 
Only time will tell if others follow and chase this stock higher.


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## peter2 (7 July 2021)

The increasing demand has been a surprise. Didn't think there was anything more than 0.03 in the break-out.


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## dyna (10 July 2021)

debtfree said:


> Solomon Lew’s Premier Investments has picked up 41.1 million shares in Myer at 40 cents each. Yesterday's price jumped up by 14.86% to end the day at $0.425 cents.
> Only time will tell if others follow and chase this stock higher.



Premier Investments outlayed another $ 16 Million to top up its 10% holding to 16%. That 2017 ,$100 Million purchase at an S.P of $1.15 has lost about $70 Million, so lew is agitating for the sacking of the 3 independent directors before accepting a board seat for himself.


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